# E**C** 

# / **R Incorporated**  **Providing Environmental Technical Support Since 1989**

501 Eastowne Dr., Suite 250  Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514 Telephone: (919) 484
-0222  Fax: (919) 484
-0122 

### MEMORANDUM **DATE:** February

2, 2015 **SUBJECT:** Baseline and NSPS Emissions from Small and Large Forced
-Air Furnaces **FROM:** Jill Mozier, EC/R Incorporated **TO:** Docket ID Number EPA
-HQ
-OAR
-2009
-0734 **1.0 PURPOSE**  This memorandum separates estimated emissions from small and large forced
-air furnaces at baseline and assuming implementation of the final NSPS for Residential Wood Heaters. We estimate, based on industry discussions with EPA, that 25% of current forced
-air furnace sales are of small forced
-air furnaces (those with less than 65,000 BTU/hr heat output) and 75% of current sales are of large forced
-air furnaces (those with 65,000 BTU/hr heat output or larger)
. These percentages were used to separate estimated emissions from the forced
-air furnace appliance category

as a whole into emissions from small and large forced
-air furnaces. The emissions memorandum 1 

### and the supporting cost effectiveness spreadsheets2 

### use the same percentages in the spreadsheet formulas to estimate NSPS emissions in 2016 (when small forced
air furnaces

– an estimated 25% of forced
-air furnace shipments

– must meet the Step 1 limit) and in 2017 (when large forced
-air furnaces

– an estimated 75% of shipments

– must also meet the Step 1 limit)
. Separate rows for small and large forced
-air furnaces are presented in the following tables and in the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA)
. The following tables are numbered according to how they appear in the RIA, which is available in the docket for this rulemaking.

1 Memorandum to USEPA from EC/R Inc. Estimated Emissions from Wood Heaters. January 2015. 2 See January 2015 cost effectiveness (CE) spreadsheets including for PM2.5 the Revised Wood Heater NSPS PM CE 7%, for VOC the Revised Wood Heater NSPS VOC CE 7%, and for CO the Revised Wood Heater NSPS CO CE 7%
. All of these spreadsheets are found in the public docket for this rulemaking.

### Table **4 -** **3 . NSPS Adjusted Emission Factors for PM** **2.5** 

### – **Baseline, Step 1 PM Emission Limits**  **and Step 2 PM Emission Limits** 

**Emission Inventory Category Baseline**  **Emission factor**  **(lb/ton) Baseline** 

**Emissions (tons)**  **Baseline Tons/appl**  **Step 1***

**Emission Factor**  **Step 1*** **Emissions (tons)**  **Step 1*** **Tons/appl 2020** 

**Step 2 Emission**  **Factor 2020** 

**Step 2 Emissions**  **(tons) 2020** 

**Step 2 Tons/appl**  Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified; non
-catalytic 8.76 5,371 0.0041 8.76 5,371 0.0041 3.89 2,387 0.0018 Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified; catalytic 9.72 2,023 0.0047 9.72 2,023 0.0047 7.78 1,618 0.0038 Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified, non
-catalytic 8.76 6,745 0.0077 8.76 6,745 0.0077 3.89 2,998 0.0034 Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified, catalytic 9.72 3,769 0.0101 9.72 3,769 0.0101 7.78 3,016 0.0081 Woodstove: pellet
-fired, general 3.06 1,798 0.0021 3.06 1,798 0.0021 1.36 799 0.0009 Single Burn Rate Stoves 30.6 71,424 0.0324 8.76 20,447 0.0093 3.89 9,088 0.0041 Hydronic heater: outdoor 64 116,933 0.3208 6.4 11,693 0.0321 2.00 3,654 0.0100 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (all) 64 83,972 0.2392 16 20,993 0.0598 2.00 2,624 0.0075 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (small) 64 20,993 0.2392 16 5,248 0.0598 2.00 656 0.0075 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (large) 64 62,979 0.2392 16 15,745 0.0598 2.00 1,968 0.0075

* Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 for all appliances, except forced
-air furnaces have work practice/operational standards beginning on the 2015 effective date; Step 1 emission limits for small furnaces become effective in 2016; and Step 1 emission limits for large furnaces become effective in 2017.



### 0. 0060 Base lin e woodstoveweighte d average( To ns/appl ) 0. 0060 2015 Ste p 1 woodstoveweighte d average( To ns/appl ) 0. 0034 2020 Ste p 2 woodstoveweighte d average( To ns/appl )

### Estimated Annual Shipments by Category, 2008**- 2020**  **2008 2009**  **2010 2011**  **2012 2013**  **2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019**  **2020** 126,527 80,851 77,617 79,169 80,752 82,367 84,015 85,695 87,409 89,157 100,000 102,000 104,040 40,000 25,560 24,538 25,028 25,529 26,039 26,560 27,091 27,633 28,186 28,750 29,325 29,911 130,381 83,313 79,981 81,581 83,212 84,876 86,574 88,305 90,072 91,873 93,710 95,585 97,496 41,000 26,199 25,151 25,654 26,167 26,690 27,224 27,769 28,324 28,891 29,468 30,058 30,659 10,250 6,550 6,288 6,414 6,542 6,673 6,806 6,942 7,081 7,223 7,367 7,514 7,665 30,750 19,649 18,863 19,241 19,625 20,018 20,418 20,827 21,243 21,668 22,101 22,543 22,994 13,385 8,553 8,211 8,375 13,100 13,362 13,629 13,902 14,180 14,463 14,753 15,048 15,349



### Estimated PM**2.5** 

### Emissions (Tons): Baseline **2008 2009**  **2010 2011**  **2012 2013**  **2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019**  **2020** 563 360 345 352 359 367 374 381 389 397 445 454 463 1,295 827 794 810 826 843 860 877 895 912 931 949 968 83 53 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 59 60 61 62 9,808 6,267 6,017 6,137 6,260 6,385 6,513 6,643 6,776 6,911 7,049 7,190 7,334 2,452 1,567 1,504 1,534 1,565 1,596 1,628 1,661 1,694 1,728 1,762 1,798 1,834 7,356 4,700 4,512 4,603 4,695 4,789 4,884 4,982 5,082 5,183 5,287 5,393 5,501 3,520 2,250 2,160 2,203 3,446 3,514 3,585 3,656 3,730 3,804 3,880 3,958 4,037 **15,269 9,757**  **9,367 9,554**  **10,944 11,163**  **11,386 11,614**  **11,846 12,083**  **12,365 12,612**  **12,865**

### 4

**Table 4 -** **6. Estimated PM** **2.5** 

### Emissions (Tons): NSPS **2008 2009**  **2010 2011**  **2012 2013**  **2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019**  **2020** Wood Stoves 563 360 345 352 359 367 374 381 389 397 445 454 259 Single Burn Rate Stoves 1,295 827 794 810 826 843 860 251 256 261 266 272 123 Pellet Stoves 83 53 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 59 60 61 28 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (all) 9,808 6,267 6,017 6,137 6,260 6,385 6,513 6,643 5,505 1,728 1,762 1,798 229 Furnaces
- small 2,452 1,567 1,504 1,534 1,565 1,596 1,628 1,661 423 432 441 449 57 Furnaces
- large 7,356 4,700 4,512 4,603 4,695 4,789 4,884 4,982 5,082 1,296 1,322 1,348 172 Hydronic Heating Systems 3,520 2,250 2,160 2,203 3,446 3,514 3,585 366 373 380 388 396 126 Total **15,269 9,757**  **9,367 9,554**  **10,944 11,163**  **11,386 7,697**  **6,581 2,825**  **2,922 2,980**  **765**

### 5

**Table 4** **- 4** **. NSPS Adjusted Emission Factors for VOC** 

**– Baseline, Step 1**  **PM Emission Limits and Step 2**  **PM Emission Limits**

**Emission Inventory Category Baseline**  **Emission factor**  **(lb/ton) Baseline** 

**Emissions (tons)**  **Baseline**

**Tons/appl Step 1** *

**Emission Factor**  **Step 1***

**Emissions (tons)**  **Step 1***

**Tons/appl 2020** 

**Step 2 Emission**  **Factor 2020** 

**Step 2 Emissions**  **(tons) 2020** 

**Step 2 Tons/appl**  Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified; non
-catalytic 

### 12 7,357 0.0056 12 7,357 0.0056 5.33 3,270 0.0025 Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified; catalytic 

### 15 3,121 0.0073 15 3,121 0.0073 12.00 2,497 0.0058 Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified, non
-catalytic 

### 12 9,240 0.0106 12 9,240 0.0106 5.33 4,107 0.0047 Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified, catalytic 

### 15 5,817 0.0155 15 5,817 0.0155 12.00 4,654 0.0124 Woodstove: pellet
-fired, general 

### 0.041 24 0.0000 0.041 24 0.0000 0.02 11 0.0000 Single Burn Rate Stoves 

### 53 123,709 0.0561 12 28,010 0.0127 5.33 12,449 0.0056 Hydronic heater: outdoor 

### 67.4 123,145 0.3378 6.74 12,314 0.0338 2.11 3,848 0.0106 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (all) 

### 67.4 88,433 0.2519 16.85 22,108 0.0630 2.11 2,764 0.0079 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (small) 

### 67.4 22,108 0.2519 16.85 5,527 0.0630 2.11 691 0.0079 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (large) 

### 67.4 66,325 0.2519 16.85 16,581 0.0630 2.11 2,073 0.0079

0.0086 Baseline woodstove weighted average (Tons/appl) 0.0086 2015 Step 1 woodstove weighted average (Tons/appl) 0.0049 2020 Step 2 woodstove weighted average (Tons/appl)

* Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 for all appliances, except forced
-air furnaces have work practice/operational standards beginning o n the 2015 effective date; Step 1 emission limits for small furnaces become effective in 2016; and Step 1 emission limits for large furnaces become effective in 2017.

### 6

**Table 4 -** **9. Estimated VOC Emissions (Tons): Baseline** * **2008 2009**  **2010 2011**  **2012 2013**  **2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019**  **2020** Wood Stoves 803 513 493 502 512 523 533 544 555 566 635 647 660 Single Burn Rate Stoves 2,243 1,433 1,376 1,403 1,431 1,460 1,489 1,519 1,549 1,580 1,612 1,644 1,677 Pellet Stoves 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (all) 10,329 6,600 6,336 6,463 6,592 6,724 6,859 6,996 7,136 7,278 7,424 7,572 7,724 Furnaces
- small 2,582 1,650 1,584 1,616 1,648 1,681 1,715 1,749 1,784 1,820 1,856 1,893 1,931 Furnaces
- large 7,747 4,950 4,752 4,847 4,944 5,043 5,144 5,247 5,352 5,459 5,568 5,679 5,793 Hydronic Heating Systems 3,707 2,369 2,274 2,320 3,629 3,701 3,775 3,851 3,928 4,006 4,086 4,168 4,251 Total **17,083 10,916**  **10,480 10,689**  **12,165 12,409**  **12,657 12,910**  **13,168 13,431**  **13,758 14,033**  **14,313**


### Table 4**- 10.**  **Estimated VOC Emissions (Tons): NSPS*** **2008 2009**  **2010 2011**  **2012 2013**  **2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019**  **2020** Wood Stoves 803 513 493 502 512 523 533 544 555 566 635 647 376 Single Burn Rate Stoves 2,243 1,433 1,376 1,403 1,431 1,460 1,489 344 351 358 365 372 169 Pellet Stoves 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (all) 10,329 6,600 6,336 6,463 6,592 6,724 6,859 6,996 5,798 1,820 1,856 1,893 241 Furnaces
- small 2,582 1,650 1,584 1,616 1,648 1,681 1,715 1,749 446 455 464 473 60 Furnaces
- large 7,747 4,950 4,752 4,847 4,944 5,043 5,144 5,247 5,352 1,365 1,392 1,420 181 Hydronic Heating Systems 3,707 2,369 2,274 2,320 3,629 3,701 3,775 385 393 401 409 417 133 Total **17,083 10,916**  **10,480 10,689**  **12,165 12,409**  **12,657 8,269**  **7,097 3,145**  **3,265 3,330**  **919**

### 7

**Table 4** **- 5** **. NSPS Adjusted Emission Factors for CO** 

**– Baseline, Step 1**  **PM Emission Limits and Step 2**  **PM Emission Limits**

**Emission Inventory Category Baseline**  **Emission factor**  **(lb/ton) Baseline** 

**Emissions (tons)**  **Baseline**

**Tons/appl Step 1** *

**Emission Factor**  **Step 1***

**Emissions (tons)**  **Step 1***

**Tons/appl 2020** 

**Step 2 Emission**  **Factor 2020** 

**Step 2 Emissions**  **(tons) 2020** 

**Step 2 Tons/appl**  Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified; non
-catalytic 

### 140.8 86,323 0.0662 140.8 86,323 0.0662 62.6 38,366 0.0294 Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified; catalytic 

### 104.4 21,725 0.0509 104.4 21,725 0.0509 83.5 17,380 0.0407 Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified, non
-catalytic 

### 140.8 108,418 0.1241 140.8 108,418 0.1241 62.6 48,186 0.0552 Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified, catalytic 

### 104.4 40,486 0.1082 104.4 40,486 0.1082 83.5 32,389 0.0866 Woodstove: pellet
-fired, general 

### 15.9 9,344 0.0110 15.9 9,344 0.0110 7.1 4,153 0.0049 Single Burn Rate Stoves 

### 230.8 538,716 0.2442 140.8 328,645 0.1489 62.6 146,064 0.0662 Hydronic heater: outdoor 

### 360 657,748 1.8042 36 65,775 0.1804 11.3 20,555 0.0564 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (all) 

### 360 472,341 1.3456 90 118,085 0.3364 11.3 14,761 0.0421 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (small) 

### 360 118,085 1.3456 90 29,521 0.3364 11.3 3,690 0.0421 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (large) 

### 360 354,256 1.3456 90 88,564 0.3364 11.3 11,070 0.0421
0.0863 Baseline woodstove weighted average (Tons/appl) 0.0863 2015 Step 1 woodstove weighted average (Tons/appl) 0.0458 2020 Step 2 woodstove weighted average (Tons/appl)

* Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 for all appliances, except forced
-air furnaces have work practice/operational standards beginning o n the 2015 effective date; Step 1 emission limits for small furnaces become effective in 2016; and Step 1 emission limits for large furnaces become effective in 2017.

### 8

**Table 4 -** **13. Estimated CO Emissions (Tons): Baseline** * **2008 2009**  **2010 2011**  **2012 2013**  **2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019**  **2020** Wood Stoves 8,079 5,163 4,956 5,055 5,156 5,259 5,365 5,472 5,581 5,693 6,385 6,513 6,643 Single Burn Rate Stoves 9,766 6,241 5,991 6,111 6,233 6,358 6,485 6,614 6,747 6,882 7,019 7,160 7,303 Pellet Stoves 432 276 265 270 275 281 287 292 298 304 310 316 323 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (all) 55,170 35,254 33,844 34,520 35,211 35,915 36,633 37,366 38,113 38,876 39,653 40,446 41,255 Furnaces
- small 13,793 8,813 8,461 8,630 8,803 8,979 9,158 9,342 9,528 9,719 9,913 10,112 10,314 Furnaces
- large 41,378 26,440 25,383 25,890 26,408 26,936 27,475 28,025 28,585 29,157 29,740 30,335 30,941 Hydronic Heating Systems 19,803 12,654 12,148 12,391 19,381 19,769 20,164 20,567 20,979 21,398 21,826 22,263 22,708 Total **93,249 59,586**  **57,203 58,347**  **66,256 67,582**  **68,933 70,312**  **71,718 73,152**  **75,194 76,698**  **78,232**



### Table 4**- 14.**  **Estimated CO Emissions (Tons): NSPS** * **2008 2009**  **2010 2011**  **2012 2013**  **2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019**  **2020** Wood Stoves 8,079 5,163 4,956 5,055 5,156 5,259 5,365 5,472 5,581 5,693 6,385 6,513 3,524 Single Burn Rate Stoves 9,766 6,241 5,991 6,111 6,233 6,358 6,485 4,035 4,116 4,198 4,282 4,368 1,980 Pellet Stoves 432 276 265 270 275 281 287 292 298 304 310 316 143 Furnace: indoor, cordwood (all) 55,170 35,254 33,844 34,520 35,211 35,915 36,633 37,366 30,967 9,719 9,913 10,112 1,289 Furnaces
- small 13,793 8,813 8,461 8,630 8,803 8,979 9,158 9,342 2,382 2,430 2,478 2,528 322 Furnaces
- large 41,378 26,440 25,383 25,890 26,408 26,936 27,475 28,025 28,585 7,289 7,435 7,584 967 Hydronic Heating Systems 19,803 12,654 12,148 12,391 19,381 19,769 20,164 2,057 2,098 2,140 2,183 2,226 710 Total **93,249 59,586**  **57,203 58,347**  **66,256 67,582**  **68,933 49,222**  **43,060 22,054**  **23,073 23,535**  **7,647**