8. Benefits Analysis

This section presents benefits of the CUE allocation phaseout as compared to the 

original methyl bromide Phaseout RIA.

8.1 Basic Methodology Framework

The benefits of the regulation were calculated using the Atmospheric and Health Effects 

Framework (AHEF) model. The AHEF, which consists of a series of FORTRAN modules, 

produces estimates of the likely increases in skin cancer mortality and incidence and cataract 

incidence resulting from past and future ODS emission scenarios, and compares the changes in 

health effects incidence and/or mortality to those that would otherwise exist under a the 1979-

1980 baseline scenario of no-further-ozone-depletion scenario (i.e., no depletion beyond that 

which existed in the 1979-1980 time period). The AHEF compares these differences across policy 

and control scenarios to estimate the additional benefits of each scenario based on the degree of 

ODS control stringency (ICF 2000a). 

8.2 Input Data

The primary input for the AHEF is methyl bromide emissions data (see Appendix B). The 

emissions model is based upon the assumption that 50 percent of methyl bromide consumed for 

treatment of agricultural soils is ultimately emitted to the atmosphere.1

 This analysis of benefits is 

for pre-plant and post-harvest methyl bromide uses for both the original and CUE phaseout 

scenarios. Consumption data are derived from figures reported to National Ozone Units and the 

Montreal Protocol Secretariat. In the baseline scenario, growth in future emissions was 

constrained to account for actual methyl bromide consumption, as well as the freeze required by 

the Montreal Protocol for both developed and developing countries. For purposes of this analysis, 

it is assumed that a CUE level equal to 39% of the 1991 baseline for 2005, 37% of the baseline 

for 2006, and further reduction as outlined in Chapter 4 (see Section 4.1) will be implemented.2

Other important inputs to the benefits assessment are unit values used to monetize 

reductions in health effects due to the phaseout. In addition to value of a saved life (VSL) 

estimates, other values include costs for hospitalization or treatment of skin cancer (e.g., surgery 

or therapy for melanoma and non-melanoma lesions), and medical treatment for cataracts. To 

monetize the avoided health effects the following input data were used:

 

1 Emissions rates have been reported to range from 32 to 87 percent as presented by UNEP (1998).

2 As paraphrased by UNEP (1998), “For non-Article 5(1) Parties operating under the Protocol (developed 

countries) . . . A freeze on MB production and consumption [is] based on 1991 levels . . . For Parties 

operating under Article 5(1) of the Protocol (developing countries) a freeze on MB production and 

consumption [is] based on 1995-98 levels from 1 January 2002 . . .”
 Value of a life saved is based on EPA (1999b). The value used for this analysis is 

$5.8 million.

 Value of avoided non-fatal melanoma skin cancer is based on ICF (1999a). The 

value used for this analysis is $12,500.

 Value of avoided non-melanoma skin cancer is based on ICF (1999b). The value 

used for this analysis is $1,250.

 Value of avoided cataract is based on ICF (1999c). The value used for this analysis 

is $2,500.

These values were used in the Phaseout RIA and are used here to maintain consistency between 

the monetized estimates of benefits presented in that analysis and the estimates presented here.

8.3 Results of the Benefits Analysis for the CUE Scenario

Exhibit 8.3.1 presents preliminary estimates of the increases in human health effects 

expected from the CUE scenario, compared to the methyl bromide phaseout, as estimated by the 

AHEF. As stated previously, benefits were monetized by multiplying the reduced morbidity and 

mortality estimates by their respective unit value. Note that the monetized values are based on 

the central incremental case value in Exhibit 8.3.1. Monetized values are not provided for the 

uncertainty range of incremental cases. As shown, the benefits of the proposed CUE allocations 

in the United States are estimated to have decreased by $783.8 million (undiscounted relative to 

the original 2005 phaseout). Benefits were also assessed at discount rates of 7, 3, and 1 

percent. As shown by Exhibit 8.3.2, discounted benefits decreased $60 million and $209 million 

at 7 and 3 percent, respectively. On an annualized basis, the decrease in benefits range from 

$4.4 million to $8.0 million at 7 and 3 percent discount rates, respectively. 
Exhibit 8.3.1. Decreased Human Health Benefits from CUE allocations compared to the 

Methyl Bromide Phaseout in the United States in 2005 (1999-2150)

Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma Non-melanoma Skin Cancer Cataract

Incidence Mortality Basal Cell 

Incidence

Squamous Cell 

Incidence

Mortality Incidence

Incremental Cases a

(Uncertainty Range)

660

(264 – 1,056)

83

(33 – 133)

15,809

(6,324 -

25,294)

7,752

(3,101 – 12,403)

42

(17 – 67)

8,105

(3,242 –

12,968)

Unit Value (1999$) $12,500 $5.8 million $1,250 $1,250 $5.8 million $2,500

Monetized Benefit 

(undiscounted)

-$8.3 million -$481.5 million -$19.8 million -$9.7 million -$244.2 million -$20.3 million

a Values in parentheses represent an uncertainty range of approximately 60% (0.6), based on health effects uncertainties 

for the following factors: 0.50 for action spectrum values, 0.05 for the UV radiative transfer modeling step, 0.30 for the 

biological amplification factor (BAF), and 0.10 for the choice of dose metric used in the AHEF. The value of 0.6 is the 

square root of the sum of the squared uncertainty terms. 

Exhibit 8.3.2. Decreased Human Health Benefits from 

CUE allocations compared to the Methyl Bromide 

Phaseout in the United States in 2005 (1999-2150)

Scenario Benefits (1997$)

Undiscounted

NPV ($783.8 million)

Annualized $15.1 million)

Discount Rate: 7 percent

NPV ($60.4 million)

Annualized ($4.4 million)

Discount Rate: 3 percent

NPV ($208.6 million)

Annualized ($8.0 million)

Discount Rate: 1 percent

NPV ($479.8 million)

Annualized ($11.9 million)

8.4 Unquantified Benefits

Changes in the incidence and mortality for the numbers of skin cancers and incidence for 

cataracts are not the only indicators of the damage to human health and the environment that 

result from increases in UV radiation due to ozone depletion. Increased UV radiation can cause a 

wide variety of additional human health problems, including actinic keratosis (a skin disease) and 

immune system disorders. Increased UV levels also lead to higher concentrations of 

tropospheric ozone (smog) that can adversely impact human respiratory and pulmonary systems. 

Furthermore, the impact of ozone depletion is not limited to humans; plants and animals can also 

suffer serious consequences from UV radiation. Overall, in addition to fewer skin cancers and 
cataracts, the following endpoints are expected to change due to the phaseout modifications. 

Increase in:

 mortality from acute exposure;3

 immune system suppression;

 aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem disruption, including reproductive/developmental 

effects, immune system suppression;

 impacts on agriculture such as decreased plant productivity, slowed metabolism, 

hastened plant disease;

 impacts on materials (i.e., accelerated breakdown of plastics and other synthetics); 

and

 lost productivity and evacuations.

Therefore, negative unquantified impacts will follow in each of these areas as a result of the CUE.

 

3 Incremental human health effects due to acute exposure expected from the CUE scenario were examined 

for this analysis. Between 2005 and 2018, 5.4 fatalities are expected due to acute methyl bromide exposure 

and 106.3 cases of acute methyl bromide exposure are expected in California. Benefits (or lost benefits) 

associated with acute exposure to methyl bromide are not examined further in this document, as analysis of 

these exposures fall under the purview of the Office of Pesticide Programs (OPP) and any re-registration 

requirements under FIFRA. (CADPR 2000, EPA 1999b, ICF 1999).