U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Dynamics of Economic Well-Being:

Labor Force Turnover, 1996-1999

Household Economic Studies

Issued July 2004

Current

Population

Reports

By

Alfred O. Gottschalck

P70-96

U S C E N S U S B U R E A U

Helping You Make Informed Decisions

As measured by the most recent labor force

data available (from the Current Population

Survey or CPS), over the last year, the unemployment rate for the United States has

remained about the same – 5.8 percent in

March 2003 and 5.7 percent in March 2004.

That statistic compares a “snapshot” of individuals in March 2003 with another “snapshot” of

different individuals for March 2004, but it is

not a picture of what happened to the same

individual's labor force behavior over that time

period. Underlying these figures is the continual labor market interaction between workers

and employers as they both seek to make

employment decisions. Labor force turnover –

the combined movement of people into, out

of, and between jobs – is a dynamic process

that continually changes the size and composition of the workforce in the United States.

This report uses the most recent longitudinal

data available (from the Survey of Income and

Program Participation or SIPP) to follow the

same people over the 1996 to 1999 period to

examine the characteristics of those who are

newly employed, those who moved directly

from one job to another, those who changed

jobs with a spell of unemployment, and so on

(see text box “SIPP – A Longitudinal Survey” for

more information concerning SIPP).1

1 The estimates in this report are based on responses

from a sample of the population. As with all surveys, estimates may vary from the actual values because of sampling

variation and other factors. All comparisons made in this

report have undergone statistical testing and are significant

at the 90-percent confidence level unless otherwise noted.

This report is an update of a section of a previous report,

P70-48: "Dynamics of Economic Well-Being: Labor Force,

1991 – 1993," August 1995, which contained a statistical

analysis of unemployment spells, labor turnover, and new

job earnings using the 1991 SIPP panel. This report updates

the labor force turnover portion of the earlier report by

examining labor force turnover by major industry and occupation group and using the 1996 SIPP panel. Due to the

redesign of the 1996 SIPP panel, the reader should use caution in making comparisons between the 1996 SIPP panel

and other SIPP panels.

SIPP – A Longitudinal Survey

Turnover event estimates relate to the

civilian noninstitutionalized population

of the United States 15 years old and

over at the end of the 1996 SIPP panel

in December 1999. SIPP is a longitudinal panel survey that interviews a representative sample of U.S. households

every four months. The population

represented (the population universe) is

the civilian noninstitutionalized population of the United States.

The core content of SIPP identifies

demographic characteristics, labor force

participation, government program participation, and various income sources

of members of sampled households.

The longitudinal estimates presented

here are based on people who were

interviewed in all waves of the reference period, or for whom imputed

information exists. Efforts were made

during the life of the panel to ensure

that the sample remained representative of the noninstitutionalized population of the United States. If the people

included in the estimates have different

experiences of employment and unemployment than the people who did not

respond initially, left the sample, or

missed two or more consecutive waves,

these longitudinal estimates may be

biased. Each wave of the SIPP panel

consists of four rotations interviewed in

consecutive months. For rotations with

missing data at the beginning of 1996

or end of 1999, these months are

excluded from the analysis in this

report.
2 U.S. Census Bureau

The report is divided into two parts.

The first describes labor force

turnover for the entire labor force

and looks at how monthly turnover

measures vary across the calendar

year. The second part examines the

average turnover rates for major

industry and occupation groups from

1996 to 1999.2

MEASURING TURNOVER

A turnover event is a change in

employment status or in employer

(see box “Definitions of Labor Force

Turnover”). The measures of labor

force turnover used in this report are

based on the number of adults (people aged 15 years and over) who

experience a turnover event between

2 consecutive months.3

Turnover events are defined here in

terms of employment. The turnover

measures count only one turnover

event between consecutive months

for each individual; they exclude people who were self-employed at their

primary job in either month. In addition, changes from the not-in-laborforce status to the unemployed (on

layoff or looking-for-work) status are

excluded from these turnover event

measures. The measures also do not

include changes occurring within a

month and job changes within the

same company. For these reasons,

the turnover measures in this report

underestimate the true amount of

labor force turnover.4 Appendix A

provides some background on this

measure. Appendix B provides standard errors for the estimates presented in this report.

HIGHLIGHTS

• In an average month over the

March 1996–November 1999

period, 6.3 million workers (5.5

percent of the workforce) experienced a job turnover event.

• Monthly turnover rates displayed

seasonal patterns: peak turnover

coincided with the beginning and

end of summer (May-June

through August-September).

• On average, from month-tomonth over the period, accessions accounted for 35.5 percent

of turnover actions, separations

for 33.8 percent, and employer

changes for 30.7 percent.5

• Average monthly turnover rates

varied by industry. Retail Trade

(9.8 percent) and Entertainment

and Recreation Services (12.9

percent) had high turnover rates.

Manufacturing (4.4 percent);

Transportation, Communications,

and Other Public Utilities (4.8

percent); and Public

Administration (3.2 percent) had

low rates.

Turnover Data by

Demographic

Characteristic

Labor Force Turnover data by

demographic characteristic

have not yet been calculated

from SIPP. The next edition of

this report, covering 2001,

2002, and 2003, will contain

such tabulations.

2 See text box “Turnover Data by

Demographic Characteristic”.

3

Turnover measures can also be constructed from data collected in establishment surveys

in which employers are asked about additions

and losses to their payrolls over time (see, for

example, Steven J. Davis, John C. Haltiwanger,

and Scott Schuh, Job Creation and Destruction,

1996). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

used establishment data to measure turnover in

manufacturing for many years until discontinuing the process in 1981 for budgetary reasons

(see Carol Utter, “Labor Turnover in

Manufacturing: The Survey in Retrospect,”

Monthly Labor Review, June 1982). BLS now

has an establishment survey called the Job

Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS),

which has collected data since December 2000.

Also, the Local Employment Dynamics (LED)

program (a partnership between the Census

Bureau and participating states) produces workforce indicators, including turnover data, for

partner states (see, for example, Nick Carroll

and Cynthia Taeuber, “A Profile of Older Workers

in Oregon” (2004)). More information about the

LED program can be found at

<http://lehd.dsd.census.gov/>. 

4 Within-month turnover measures are best

captured by administrative records data. The

Local Employment Dynamics (LED) program (a

partnership between the Census Bureau and

participating states) produces workforce indicators, including turnover data, for partner states

which incorporate administrative records. More

information about the LED program can be

found at http://lehd.dsd.census.gov/.

5 See text box “Definitions of Labor Force

Turnover” for an explanation of turnover

events.

Definitions of Labor Force Turnover

Turnover Event: A labor turnover event is a change in employment status or in employer between two consecutive months. Three kinds are

measured in this report:

Job Accession: A person goes from being not employed (that is,

either unemployed or not in the labor force) in the first month to

being employed in the second month.

Job Separation: A person goes from being employed in the first

month to being not employed in the second month.

Employer Change: A person goes from having one primary

employer in the first month to having a different one in the second

month.

Primary Employer: The employer for which the person worked the most

hours during the month.
U.S. Census Bureau 3

Table 1.

Labor Force Turnover Rates and the Composition of Labor Force Turnover, 1996-1999 

(Numbers in thousands)

Year

Monthly

period

Average

monthly

employment

in period*

Total

number

of turnover

events

Turnover

rate

(percent)

Composition of turnover (percent)

Turnover

due to

accessions

Turnover

due to

separations

Turnover

due to

employer

changes

1996−1999 Average...................

90−percent Confidence Interval** .....

1996.................................

1997.................................

1998.................................

1999.................................

Mar.−Apr.

Apr.−May

May−June

June−July

July−Aug.

Aug.−Sept.

Sept.−Oct.

Oct.−Nov.

Nov.−Dec.

Dec.−Jan.

Jan.−Feb.

Feb.−Mar.

Mar.−Apr.

Apr.−May

May−June

June−July

July−Aug.

Aug.−Sept.

Sept.−Oct.

Oct.−Nov.

Nov.−Dec.

Dec.−Jan.

Jan.−Feb.

Feb.−Mar.

Mar.−Apr.

Apr.−May

May−June

June−July

July−Aug.

Aug.−Sept.

Sept.−Oct.

Oct.−Nov.

Nov.−Dec.

Dec.−Jan.

Jan.−Feb.

Feb.−Mar.

Mar.−Apr.

Apr.−May

May−June

June−July

July−Aug.

Aug.−Sept.

Sept.−Oct.

Oct.−Nov.

113,393

±958

110,030

111,120

112,390

113,185

113,435

112,825

112,040

112,155

112,070

111,995

111,980

112,015

112,400

112,925

113,835

114,355

114,270

113,870

113,420

113,310

113,250

113,170

113,065

113,400

113,720

113,925

114,485

114,515

114,415

114,055

113,620

113,860

113,890

113,740

113,705

113,845

114,025

114,370

114,890

114,850

114,560

114,245

114,005

114,030

6,274

±333

6,261

6,774

8,242

6,898

7,131

9,318

6,728

6,087

5,895

6,458

5,805

5,716

5,734

5,905

7,578

6,976

6,905

8,438

6,142

5,636

5,028

6,090

5,151

5,658

5,646

5,820

7,009

6,724

6,436

7,299

6,082

5,359

5,054

5,532

5,266

5,271

5,033

5,922

6,519

5,861

6,014

7,167

5,904

5,567

5.5

±0.3

5.7

6.1

7.3

6.1

6.3

8.3

6.0

5.4

5.3

5.8

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.2

6.7

6.1

6.0

7.4

5.4

5.0

4.4

5.4

4.6

5.0

5.0

5.1

6.1

5.9

5.6

6.4

5.4

4.7

4.4

4.9

4.6

4.6

4.4

5.2

5.7

5.1

5.2

6.3

5.2

4.9

35.5

±2.6

46.7

45.3

46.6

37.0

37.5

27.6

35.6

36.3

32.6

37.8

33.1

36.0

38.1

40.2

44.7

33.2

33.6

31.1

33.6

32.3

34.2

32.6

34.7

40.3

31.3

37.9

39.5

28.9

37.5

26.9

35.0

34.8

31.2

33.9

34.0

36.6

34.6

39.8

38.4

29.0

33.3

29.5

34.1

31.5

33.8

±2.6

28.9

29.6

28.7

35.3

32.0

44.9

34.9

33.2

38.7

34.4

37.4

30.5

30.1

30.1

28.5

35.8

33.4

40.8

34.9

34.8

33.7

35.5

35.3

27.9

32.3

29.9

30.2

37.6

31.4

42.1

31.2

30.3

34.6

36.1

33.1

32.1

32.0

30.4

31.0

38.5

33.7

38.0

31.9

32.9

30.7

±2.6

24.4

25.1

24.7

27.7

30.5

27.5

29.4

30.5

28.7

27.8

29.5

33.4

31.8

29.7

26.8

31.0

33.0

28.1

31.5

33.0

32.1

31.8

30.0

31.9

36.4

32.1

30.3

33.5

31.0

31.0

33.8

35.0

34.2

29.9

32.9

31.3

33.4

29.8

30.6

32.5

33.0

32.5

34.0

35.6

*Average monthly employment in period represents the average number of people with a ‘‘primary’’ job in each month of the 2−month

period and who are not in an active duty military industry group.

**The 90−percent confidence intervals for the individual 2−month periods are of similar magnitude.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1996 panel.
4 U.S. Census Bureau

• Turnover rates also differed by

occupation. Turnover was highest for the Farming, Forestry, and

Fishing group (11.6 percent) and

lowest for the Managerial group

(3.9 percent).6

LABOR FORCE TURNOVER:

1996 TO 1999

Over the time period examined in

this report, there was a tightening of

the labor market; as measured by the

CPS, the unemployment rate went

from 5.5 percent in March 1996 to

4.1 percent in November 1999. In

general, tight labor markets mean

that employers find it more difficult

to find workers, while employees

gain leverage to demand pay raises

and better fringe benefits, and

greater flexibility to switch jobs.

For the March 1996–November 1999

period as a whole, Table 1 shows

that the number of people with a

turnover event averaged 6.3 million

per month, producing an average

monthly turnover rate of 5.5 percent.

The number of people with turnover

events ranged from a peak of 9.3

million in August-September 1996 to

a low of 5.0 million, which occurred

in several periods. These periods

also had the highest (8.3 percent)

and lowest (4.4 percent) turnover

rates, respectively. On average over

the period, accessions accounted for

35.5 percent of turnover events, separations for 33.8 percent, and

employer changes for 30.7 percent.

Figures 1 and 2 present the components of labor force turnover by

monthly period for 1996-1999 in

absolute amounts (Figure 1) and as a

6 The turnover rate for the Farming,

Forestry, and Fishing occupation group was not

significantly different from the Sales and Service

occupation groups. The turnover rate for the

Managerial occupation group was not significantly different from the Professional Specialty

and Technical occupation groups.

Components of Labor Force Turnover, 

1996-1999

Figure 1.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1996 panel.

Accessions

Separations

Employer Change

Number of Turnover Events (thousands)

Monthly Periods, 1996

Monthly Periods, 1997

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

DecJanNovDecOctNovSeptOctAugSeptJulyAugJuneJulyMayJuneAprMayMarApr

Number of Turnover Events (thousands)

Monthly Periods, 1998

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

DecJanNovDecOctNovSeptOctAugSeptJulyAugJuneJulyMayJuneAprMayMarAprFebMarJanFeb

Number of Turnover Events (thousands)

Monthly Periods, 1999

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

OctNovSeptOctAugSeptJulyAugJuneJulyMayJuneAprMayMarAprFebMarJanFeb

Number of Turnover Events (thousands)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

DecJanNovDecOctNovSeptOctAugSeptJulyAugJuneJulyMayJuneAprMayMarAprFebMarJanFeb
U.S. Census Bureau 5

percentage of total turnover (Figure

2).7 The figures show that, in general, the numbers and percentages of

events were fairly evenly distributed

among the three components. The

absolute and relative levels of the

components mostly moved upward

and downward in step with each

other.

Figures 1 and 2 also reveal that labor

force turnover contained a strong

seasonal component. In 1996, the

monthly turnover rate increased

steadily from 5.7 percent in MarchApril to 7.3 percent in May-June (see

Table 1).8 This rise in turnover activity reflects the labor dynamics associated with the spring retail surge, the

onset of agricultural activity, improving weather, and the influx of young

workers into the workforce at the

end of the school year. The turnover

rate declined somewhat over the

summer months in 1996, to peak

again in the late summer and early

fall (8.3 percent in August–

September), as young workers

returned to school and many seasonal agricultural jobs ended. The highest percentage of turnover events

attributed to separations, 44.9 percent, was associated with this latter

peak. This same seasonal pattern

can also be seen for years 1997,

1998, and 1999, though the

strongest pattern occurred in 1996.

LABOR FORCE TURNOVER

BY INDUSTRY

Turnover events occur within an

industry framework: a person either

enters an industry, leaves an industry, or changes jobs within the same

Components of Labor Force Turnover 

as a Percentage of Total Turnover, 

1996-1999

Figure 2.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1996 panel.

Accessions

Separations

Employer Change

Percentage of Total Turnover

Monthly Periods, 1996

Monthly Periods, 1997

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

DecJanNovDecOctNovSeptOctAugSeptJulyAugJuneJulyMayJuneAprMayMarApr

Percentage of Total Turnover

Monthly Periods, 1998

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

DecJanNovDecOctNovSeptOctAugSeptJulyAugJuneJulyMayJuneAprMayMarAprFebMarJanFeb

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

OctNovSeptOctAugSeptJulyAugJuneJulyMayJuneAprMayMarAprFebMarJanFeb

Percentage of Total Turnover

Monthly Periods, 1999

Percentage of Total Turnover

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

DecJanNovDecOctNovSeptOctAugSeptJulyAugJuneJulyMayJuneAprMayMarAprFebMarJanFeb

7 The detailed statistics on which Figures 1

and 2 are based are shown in Table 1.

8 Since this presentation focuses on seasonality, we chose to use 1996 data since they are

less affected by attrition than later data.
6 U.S. Census Bureau

industry. Table 2 shows how

turnover varies by industry group.9

Over the 1996-1999 period, the

Retail Trade industry had a relatively

high turnover rate, 9.8 percent, and

accounted for the largest number of

average industry turnover events

(1.8 million out of 7.3 million for all

industries). The Entertainment and

Recreation Services industry had one

of the highest turnover rates among

industries (12.9 percent).10 The

Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing

group – an industry highly influenced

by seasonal change – also had a

high turnover rate (10.6 percent), as

did Business and Repair Services

(10.5 percent) and Personal Services

(10.5 percent).11 Except for

Construction (7.7 percent), all other

industries had turnover rates

between 3 percent and 5 percent,

with Public Administration being one

of the lowest at 3.2 percent.

Each of the major components of

industry turnover – accessions, separations, and employer changes –

accounted for about one-third of

overall industry turnover (see the

“Composition of Turnover” columns

in Table 2). The sub-categories of

the employer-change component –

inflows from other industries, outflows to other industries, and withinindustry transfers – also accounted

for about one-third each of the overall contribution of the employerchanges component to total industry

turnover.

Table 2.

Average Monthly Employment, Average Total Turnover, Rate of Turnover, and 

Composition of Labor Force Turnover by Industry Group: 1996-1999 

(Numbers in thousands)

1 Industry group

Composition of turnover (percent)

Turnover due to employer changes

Inter−

industry4

Intra−

industry

Average Average Industry Turnover Due to Due to Due to

monthly total turnover Turnover due to inflow from outflow to within−

employ− industry 3 rate due to separa− other other industry

ment2 turnover2 (percent) accessions tions industries industries group

Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries.... 2,163 229 10.6 36.7 33.6 10.6 12.8 6.2

Mining. . .......................... 598 30 5.0 26.4 28.1 15.0 15.8 14.7

Construction ...................... 5,733 440 7.7 29.3 27.6 15.8 12.6 14.7

Manufacturing ..................... 19,494 853 4.4 27.3 30.9 15.9 13.4 12.5

Transportation, communications,

and other public utilities ........... 7,764 375 4.8 26.2 27.6 20.0 14.3 11.8

Wholesale trade . . . . . .............. 4,598 248 5.4 25.3 25.4 22.6 20.0 6.7

Retail trade ....................... 18,453 1,805 9.8 32.6 30.1 10.2 14.2 12.8

Finance, insurance, and real estate . . 6,940 356 5.1 25.7 25.1 20.0 16.0 13.1

Business and repair services........ 6,407 671 10.5 30.2 24.8 17.3 19.5 8.3

Personal services.................. 3,115 326 10.5 33.0 30.5 13.7 16.2 6.5

Entertainment and recreation

services ......................... 2,107 272 12.9 31.4 29.5 16.2 18.3 4.5

Professional and related services .... 29,113 1,505 5.2 31.2 29.2 12.8 11.2 15.6

Public administration ............... 6,908 224 3.2 27.9 29.5 18.4 16.6 7.6

All industries5 ..................... 113,393 7,333 6.5 30.3 28.9 14.5 14.5 11.9

1

Industry group categories are based on the 1990 Census Industry Classification System.

2

Refers to the average across the 1996−1999 time frame used in this report; percentages are calculated on that basis.

3

Industry turnover rate equals average total industry turnover divided by average monthly employment.

4

The movement of a worker between industry groups is counted twice: once at the point of exit (former industry) and once again at the

point of entry (new industry). In the aggregate, the levels of inflow and outflow across all industries are equivalent. 5

A turnover event involving a movement between industries is tallied as a turnover event for each of the two industries. For this reason,

the data in the ‘‘All industries’’ row of Table 2 does not agree with the corresponding data in Table 1. A turnover movement within an industry

is tallied only once, as an employer change. Also, due to differences in industry and occupation group classification systems, some individu−

als who are classified as having a military occupation are classified as working in a nonmilitary industry group. Hence, the ‘‘All industries’’

row in Table 2 and the ‘‘All occupations’’ row in Table 3 will not be identical.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1996 panel.

9 A turnover event involving a movement

between industries is tallied as a turnover event

for each of the two industries. For this reason,

the data in the “All Industries” row of Table 2

does not agree with the corresponding data in

Table 1. A turnover movement within an industry is tallied only once, as an employer change.

10 The turnover rate for the Entertainment

and Recreation Services industry group was not

statistically different from the turnover rates for

the Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing; Retail

Trade; Business and Repair Services; and

Personal Services industry groups.

11 The turnover rates for the Agriculture,

Forestry, and Fishing; Business and Repair

Services; and Personal Services industry groups

were not statistically different from each other.
U.S. Census Bureau 7

LABOR FORCE TURNOVER

BY OCCUPATION

Not surprisingly, the degree of labor

turnover varies by occupation as well

as by industry, as shown in Table 3.12

Occupational turnover data often

reflect, to a large degree, the patterns observed in the industry

turnover data because particular

occupations are often closely associated with certain industries. 

Over the 1996-1999 period, the

occupational group Farming,

Forestry, and Fishing had one of the

highest occupational turnover rates

(11.6 percent).13 This occupation

group is closely associated with the

Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries

industry, which, as described above,

also had a very high turnover rate.

The Service occupation group experienced a large number of turnover

events (1.4 million) and had a high

turnover rate (9.5 percent). Many of

the jobs in this occupation group are

in the Retail Trade and Entertainment

and Recreation Services industries.

The Managerial (3.9 percent),

Professional Specialty (4.6 percent),

and Technical (4.8 percent) occupation groups had low turnover rates.14

Employer changes were particularly

significant for Managers and

Technicians, contributing to about

half of the turnover actions for these

occupations. The contribution of

accessions to total turnover for most

of the occupations was relatively balanced by that of separations.

12A turnover event involving a movement

between occupations is tallied as a turnover

event for each of the two occupations. For this

reason, the data in the “All Occupations” row of

Table 3 does not agree with the corresponding

data in Table 1. A turnover movement within

an occupation is tallied only once, as an

employer change.

13The turnover rates for the Farming,

Forestry, and Fishing; Sales; and Service occupation groups were not statistically different from

each other.

14The turnover rates for the Managerial;

Professional Specialty; and Technical occupation

groups were not significantly different from

each other. 

Table 3.

Average Monthly Employment, Average Total Turnover, Rate of Turnover, and 

Composition of Labor Force Turnover by Occupation Group: 1996-1999

(Numbers in thousands)

Composition of turnover (percent)

Turnover due to employer changes

Inter− Intra− 1 Occupation group occupation4 occupation

Occupa− Due to Due to

Average Average tion Turnover Turnover inflow outflow Due to

monthly total turnover due to due to from other from other within

employ− occupation rate3 acces− separa− occupa− occupa− occupation

ment2 turnover2 (percent) sions tions tions tions group

Managerial ....................... 14,947 577 3.9 22.8 27.6 18.9 17.8 12.9

Professional specialty.............. 17,212 798 4.6 29.9 27.5 13.9 12.3 16.5

Technical......................... 4,008 194 4.8 25.1 24.2 21.4 18.3 11.0

Sales . ........................... 12,465 1,080 8.7 31.8 28.3 13.0 16.2 10.7

Administrative support ............. 18,620 1,140 6.1 30.5 28.4 14.8 13.3 13.0

Service .......................... 15,046 1,424 9.5 33.7 30.7 10.5 13.0 12.0

Farming, forestry, and fishing ....... 2,261 262 11.6 37.0 34.0 10.5 12.0 6.5

Precision production, craft, and

repair........................... 11,637 593 5.1 26.4 28.4 16.1 13.0 16.3

Operators, fabricators, and

laborers......................... 17,160 1,206 7.0 31.5 30.9 13.1 11.9 12.6

All occupations5 .................. 113,356 7,274 6.4 30.6 29.2 13.8 13.8 12.7

1

Occupation group categories are based on the 1990 Census Occupation Classification System.

2

Refers to the average across the 1996−1999 time frame used in this report; percentages are calculated on that basis.

3

Occupation turnover rate equals average total occupation turnover divided by average monthly employment.

4

The movement of a worker between occupation groups is counted twice: once at the point of exit (former occupation) and once again at

the point of entry (new occupation). In the aggregate, the levels of inflow and outflow across all occupation are equivalent. 5

A turnover event involving a movement between occupations is tallied as a turnover event for each of the two occupations. For this reason,

the data in the ‘‘All occupations’’ row of Table 3 does not agree with the corresponding data in Table 1. A turnover movement within an

occupation is tallied only once, as an employer change. Also, due to differences in industry and occupation group classification systems, some

individuals who are classified as having a military occupation are classified as working in a nonmilitary industry group. Hence, the ‘‘All indus−

tries’’ row in Table 2 and the ‘‘All occupations’’ row in Table 3 will not be identical.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1996 panel.
8 U.S. Census Bureau

SOURCE OF THE DATA errors in surveys may be attributed erations affect comparisons across

to a variety of sources, such as how different surveys or data sources.15

The population represented (the pop- the survey was designed, how ulation universe) in the 1996 Survey For further information on the source respondents interpret questions, how of Income and Program Participation of the data and accuracy of the esti- able and willing respondents are to (SIPP) is the civilian noninstitutional- mates, including standard errors and provide correct answers, and how ized population of the United States. confidence intervals, go to accurately the answers are coded The data in this report refer to the <http://www.sipp.census.gov/sipp and classified. The Census Bureau

period from March 1996 through /sourceac/S&A96_030228.Long.pdf> employs quality control procedures November 1999. The institutional- or contact John L. Boies, throughout the production process, ized population, which is excluded Demographic Statistical Methods including the overall design of sur- from the population universe, is com- Division, at veys, the wording of questions, posed primarily of the population in <John.L.Boies@census.gov>. review of the work of interviewers

correctional institutions and nursing and coders, and statistical review of homes (91 percent of the 4.1 million reports to minimize these errors. institutionalized population in USER COMMENTS

Census 2000). The Survey of Income and Program The Census Bureau welcomes the Participation (SIPP) weighting proce- comments and advice of users of its dure uses ratio estimation, whereby data and reports. If you have sug- ACCURACY OF THE sample estimates are adjusted to gestions or comments, please send ESTIMATES independent estimates of the nation- an email inquiry to: al population by age, race, sex, and

Statistics from surveys are subject to <hhes-info@census.gov>. Hispanic origin. This weighting parsampling and nonsampling error. All tially corrects for bias due to undercomparisons presented in this report coverage, but biases may still be

have taken sampling error into present when people who are missed SUGGESTED CITATION

account and are significant at the 90- by the survey differ from those inter- Gottschalck, Alfred O. Dynamics of percent confidence level. This viewed in ways other than the age, Economic Well-Being: Labor Force means the 90-percent confidence race, sex, and Hispanic origin. How Turnover, 1996-1999. Current interval for the difference between this weighting procedure affects Population Reports, P70-96. U.S. the estimates being compared does other variables in the survey is not Census Bureau, Washington, DC. 2004. not include zero. Nonsampling precisely known. All of these consid15 For a more detailed discussion of SIPP sampling and weighting, see 

http://www.sipp.census.gov/sipp/sam_and_wt.html.
U.S. Census Bureau 9

APPENDIX A.

MEASURING LABOR FORCE TURNOVER

The following steps were used to cal- tion period. At least four possible labor force turnover (Series P-70-48,

culate the labor force turnover rate measures could be used as the base Dynamics of Economic Well- Being:

for pairs of consecutive months (denominator) of the turnover rate Labor Force, 1991 to 1993, U.S.

shown in Table 1: formula outlined in Step 3 above: Government Printing Office,

Washington, DC, August 1995). Step 1 Count the number of Base 1 = Number of people

people who experienced a employed in month n. With Base 2, all people counted in

turnover event between the the numerator are also included in Base 2 = Number of people given pair of consecutive the denominator. This method bias- employed either in month n or in months: Total number of es upward the monthly average num- month n+1. turnover events = accessions + ber of people in the labor force,

separations + employer changes. Base 3 = Number of people which, in turn, biases downward the

employed in both n and month calculated turnover rate.

Step 2 Calculate the average n+1. monthly number of employed Base 3, on balance, is too restrictive

people in the two months: (num- Base 4 = The sum of the number (generates the smallest base) and

ber of employed people in first of people employed in month n over-estimates labor force turnover.

month + number of employed plus the number of people If turnover is calculated using Base 3,

people in second month) divided employed in month n+1, divided people who are out of the labor force

by 2. by 2. in either month 1 or month 2 are not

included in the base, but would be Step 3 Divide the sum calculat- Base 1 considers all people employed included in the numerator. ed in Step 1 by the monthly aver- in the first month as the base for calage calculated in Step 2. Multiply culating turnover. Although this Base 4 was used in calculating the

the quotient by 100 to obtain a method ignores some individuals in data for the figures and tables prepercentage. the numerator (total turnover inci- sented in this report. Since turnover

dence), such as those out of the is possible between months, it can By definition, labor force turnover labor force in the first month and in be argued that the formula base represents a change in employment the labor force in the second month, should be an average of the number status or employer between a given it misses only half as many people as of people in the labor force during pair of consecutive months (month n does Base 3, which was used in the the two-month period. and month n+1) during the observa- previous Census Bureau report on
10 U.S. Census Bureau

Table B−1.

Standard Errors for Average Monthly Employment, Labor Force Turnover Rates, and 

the Composition of Labor Force, 1996-1999

(Numbers in thousands)

Year

Monthly

period

Average

monthly

employment

in period*

Total

number of

turnover

events

Turnover

rate

(percent)

Composition of turnover (percent)

Turnover

due to

accessions

Turnover

due to

separations

Turnover

due to

employer

changes

1996−1999 Average...................

1996...............................

1997...............................

1998...............................

1999...............................

Mar.−Apr.

Apr.−May

May−June

June−July

July−Aug.

Aug.−Sept.

Sept.−Oct.

Oct.−Nov.

Nov.−Dec.

Dec.−Jan.

Jan.−Feb.

Feb.−Mar.

Mar.−Apr.

Apr.−May

May−June

June−July

July−Aug.

Aug.−Sept.

Sept.−Oct.

Oct.−Nov.

Nov.−Dec.

Dec.−Jan.

Jan.−Feb.

Feb.−Mar.

Mar.−Apr.

Apr.−May

May−June

June−July

July−Aug.

Aug.−Sept.

Sept.−Oct.

Oct.−Nov.

Nov.−Dec.

Dec.−Jan.

Jan.−Feb.

Feb.−Mar.

Mar.−Apr.

Apr.−May

May−June

June−July

July−Aug.

Aug.−Sept.

Sept.−Oct.

Oct.−Nov.

599

601

600

599

599

599

599

600

599

600

600

600

600

599

599

598

598

598

598

599

599

599

599

599

599

599

598

598

598

598

598

599

598

598

598

599

598

598

598

598

598

598

598

598

598

208

208

216

237

217

221

251

215

205

202

211

200

199

199

202

228

219

218

240

206

197

187

205

189

198

197

200

219

215

210

223

205

192

187

195

191

191

187

202

212

201

204

222

202

196

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.3

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.3

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.7

*Average monthly employment in period represents the average number of people with a ‘‘primary’’ job in each month of the 2−month

period and who are not in an active duty military industry group.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1996 panel.

APPENDIX B.

STANDARD ERRORS
U.S. Census Bureau 11

Table B−2.

Standard Errors for Average Monthly Employment, Total Turnover, Rate of Turnover, and

Composition of Labor Force Turnover by Industry Group: 1996-1999

(Numbers in thousands)

Composition of turnover (percent)

Turnover due to employer changes

Inter− Intra− 1 Industry group industry4 industry

Average Average Industry Turnover Due to Due to Due to

monthly total turnover Turnover due to inflow from outflow to within−

employ− industry rate3 due to separa− other other industry

ment2 turnover2 (percent) accessions tions industries industries group

Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. . . . 123 40 1.8 8.5 8.3 5.4 5.9 4.2

Mining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 15 2.4 21.5 21.9 17.4 17.8 17.3

Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 56 0.9 5.8 5.7 4.6 4.2 4.5

Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354 78 0.4 4.1 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.0

Transportation, communications,

and other public utilities . . . . . . . . . . . 230 52 0.6 6.1 6.1 5.5 4.8 4.4

Wholesale trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 42 0.9 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.8 4.2

Retail trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345 113 0.6 2.9 2.9 1.9 2.2 2.1

Finance, insurance, and real estate . . 218 50 0.7 6.2 6.1 5.6 5.2 4.8

Business and repair services. . . . . . . . 210 69 1.0 4.7 4.4 3.9 4.1 2.8

Personal services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 48 1.5 6.9 6.8 5.1 5.4 3.6

Entertainment and recreation

services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 44 1.9 7.5 7.4 6.0 6.2 3.4

Professional and related services . . . . 421 103 0.3 3.2 3.1 2.3 2.2 2.5

Public administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 40 0.6 8.0 8.1 6.9 6.6 4.7

All industries5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 599 224 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0

1

Industry group categories are based on the 1990 Census Industry Classification System.

2

Refers to the average across the 1996−1999 time frame used in this report; percentages are calculated on that basis.

3

Industry turnover rate equals average total industry turnover divided by average monthly employment.

4

The movement of a worker between industry groups is counted twice: once at the point of exit (former industry) and once again at the

point of entry (new industry). In the aggregate, the levels of inflow and outflow across all industries are equivalent. 5

A turnover event involving a movement between industries is tallied as a turnover event for each of the two industries. For this reason,

the data in the ‘‘All industries’’ row of Table B−2 does not agree with the corresponding data in Table B−1. A turnover movement within an

industry is tallied only once, as an employer change. Also, due to differences in industry and occupation group classification systems, some

individuals who are classified as having a military occupation are classified as working in a nonmilitary industry group. Hence, the ‘‘All indus−

tries’’ row in Table B–2 and the ‘‘All occupations’’ row in Table B–3 will not be identical.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1996 panel.
U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Washington, DC 20233

OFFICIAL BUSINESS

Penalty for Private Use $300

FIRST-CLASS MAIL

POSTAGE & FEES PAID

U.S. Census Bureau

Permit No. G-58

Table B−3.

Standard Errors for Average Monthly Employment, Total Turnover, Rate of Turnover, and 

Composition of Labor Force Turnover by Occupation Group: 1996-1999

(Numbers in thousands)

Composition of turnover (percent)

Turnover due to employer changes

Inter− Intra− 1 Occupation group occupation4 occupation

Occupa−

Average Average tion Turnover Due to Due to Due to

monthly total turnover Turnover due to inflow outflow within−

employ− occupation rate3 due to separa− from other from other occupation

ment2 turnover2 (percent) accessions tions industries industries group

Managerial. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314 64 0.4 4.7 5.0 4.3 4.2 3.7

Professional specialty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334 75 0.4 4.3 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.5

Technical . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 37 0.9 8.3 8.2 7.8 7.4 6.0

Sales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288 87 0.7 3.8 3.6 2.7 3.0 2.5

Administrative support. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347 90 0.5 3.6 3.6 2.8 2.7 2.7

Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315 100 0.6 3.3 3.3 2.2 2.4 2.3

Farming, forestry, and fishing . . . . . . . 126 43 1.8 7.9 7.8 5.0 5.3 4.1

Precision production, craft, and

repair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 65 0.5 4.8 4.9 4.0 3.7 4.0

Operators, fabricators, and

laborers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334 92 0.5 3.6 3.5 2.6 2.5 2.5

All occupations5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 599 223 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0

1

Occupation group categories are based on the 1990 Census Occupation Classification System.

2

Refers to the average across the 1996−1999 time frame used in this report; percentages are calculated on that basis.

3

Occupation turnover rate equals average total occupation turnover divided by average monthly employment.

4

The movement of a worker between occupation groups is counted twice: once at the point of exit (former occupation) and once again at

the point of entry (new occupation). In the aggregate, the levels of inflow and outflow across all occupations are equivalent. 5

A turnover event involving a movement between occupations is tallied as a turnover event for each of the two occupations. For this rea−

son, the data in the ‘‘All occupations’’ row of Table B−3 does not agree with the corresponding data in Table B−1. A turnover movement within

an occupation is tallied only once, as an employer change. Also, due to differences in industry and occupation group classification systems,

some individuals who are classified as having a military occupation are classified as working in a nonmilitary industry group. Hence, the ‘‘All

industries’’ row in Table B–2 and the ‘‘All occupations’’ row in Table B–3 will not be identical.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1996 panel.