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|  | **FYI: An Update on Emerging Issues in Banking**Subscribe    Unsubscribe
**Scenarios      for the Next U.S. Recession**
March              23, 2006 
			Notwithstanding a slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2005, U.S. economic activity has grown at            a stable, robust pace for most of the last three years. Gross domestic            product (GDP) grew at a real annualized rate of at least 3.3 percent            in every quarter between March 2003 and September 2005 before sliding            to a rate of 1.6 percent in the final quarter of last year. Meanwhile,            FDIC-insured institutions turned in a fifth-consecutive year of record            earnings in 2005, posting net income of $134.2 billion. In addition,            today marks the 636th day since the FDIC last provided assistance            to a failed or failing bank�the longest such streak in the history            of the Corporation.		

			This string of positive reports on the U.S. economy and banking industry paradoxically            has led some analysts to ask a somewhat pessimistic question: How            long can these good times last? Experience teaches us that economic            expansions do not last forever and that some types of economic disruptions            can be associated with financial distress for banking organizations.            While forecasting recessions is, at best, a hazardous business, it            makes sense from a risk management perspective to explore various            weak-economy scenarios to better prepare for adversity down the road.		

			With this in mind, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation recently hosted            a panel discussion to gain insights into scenarios for the next recession.            The event was moderated by FDIC Chief Economist Richard Brown, and            the panelists included Kathleen Camilli, Chief Economist and Director            of Camilli Economics; Arthur McMahon, Director of Economic Outlook            and Bank Condition for the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency            (OCC); and Meredith Whitney, Executive Director for CIBC World Markets,            a subsidiary of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in New York.        
Rich	            Brown                FDICKathleen	            Camilli                Camilli Economics                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Art McMahon               OCC Meridth Whitney	          CIBC World Markets          This issue of *FYI* addresses many of the themes presented at that			forum, discussing recent economic trends and potential areas of weakness			that could pose problems for banks in the next recession. This issue also			looks at the historical performance of the banking industry across business			cycles and how well the industry is positioned to effectively manage the			risks and challenges that may be associated with the next recession.		
**The Economy Is Strong**		There can be little debate about the fact that U.S. economic performance		has been strong. The steady growth in real GDP noted above can be attributed		to several sources. For one, business investment has risen at a double-digit		pace during the past two years, fueled by several years of double-digit		corporate profit growth. In addition, home prices have boomed, acting		to support consumer spending despite less-than-stellar gains in average		real wages and an easing in real median family income since the late		1990s. Finally, fiscal and monetary policies have been favorable with		reduced	tax rates, increased government spending, and steady, clearly		telegraphed interest-rate increases supporting economic growth while limiting	near-term policy uncertainty.	                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

		Despite the overall strong appraisal, real GDP growth		decelerated sharply, to a 1.6 percent annualized rate during fourth quarter		2005. This slowdown had been expected by many forecasters, including		one of		the FDIC roundtable panelists, Kathleen Camilli. She introduced the notion		that the U.S. economy might have experienced a mid-cycle growth slowdown		in late 2005. These slowdowns have a precedent, as they have occurred		during expansions in both the 1980s and 1990s (see Chart 1). Ms. Camilli		also		noted		that the recent historical pattern of real GDP growth points to recessions		occurring near the start of every decade. On that basis, the U.S. economy		may have a few more years of expansion ahead of it before entering the		next	recession.		(Click		here to link to the complete text of Ms. Camilli�s remarks in the transcript.)	

d

	Although fourth quarter GDP growth was weak, recent signs point to a resurgence	early in 2006. For instance, job growth has picked up and the unemployment rate	fell to 4.8 percent as of February. The economy added an average of 228,000 net	nonfarm positions per month between November and February, almost double the	average 125,000 per month gain from July through October. During January and	February, average weekly initial unemployment claims ran below 300,000, a	decrease from the 330,000 average in fourth quarter 2005. After a slow start,	business investment surged late in the fourth quarter. Shipments of nondefense,	nonaircraft capital goods jumped 3.8 percent in December following much weaker	monthly gains in October and November. These shipments again advanced modestly	in January. Meanwhile, monthly surveys of purchasing managers indicated robust	growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors during February. As of	early March, many forecasters were expecting annualized quarterly real GDP growth	of over 4 percent during the first three months of 2006 and over 3 percent for all	of 2006.

**Three Key Economic and Banking Risk Concerns**	Despite a favorable outlook, there are at least three widely acknowledged	areas of near-term concern that could pose risks to the economy going forward:	a spike in	energy prices, a decline in home prices, and a retrenchment in consumer spending	arising from record consumer indebtedness. The consequences that any of these	developments might have for economic growth could range from modest to severe,	depending on how events play out over the next few years. It should be noted	that	these three areas are by no means the only potential sources of risk. Financial	market panics, natural disasters, terrorism, war, and even changes to policy	are	among many other potential sources of disruption to the currently benign	economic and banking environment. It is difficult to assess many of these	risks	before	they occur, but in 2005 the FDIC did examine so-called �stroke-of-the-pen� risk,	or risk that arises when tax, monetary, accounting and other policy changes	produce	unintended consequences for the economy and banking.1

***Energy Shocks***		Because global excess crude oil production and refining capacity are limited,		the risk of supply-side energy shocks remains high. Strong global growth in		energy demand in recent years, coupled with decades of limited new international		investment in energy production capacity, have left the United States and the		world exposed to increased energy risks. Although the U.S. economy is less reliant		on energy today than in the 1970s, it can still suffer from energy supply disruptions		that result in spiking oil, gas, and gasoline prices.	

		Given historically mild January weather, natural gas prices fell by roughly half		from their elevated early winter levels. Crude oil and gasoline prices have also		come down from their late summer peak because of an increase in imports and the		gradual return of damaged production capacity following the summer hurricane season.		Even so, oil prices remained 29 percent above year-earlier levels in February, and		gasoline prices were 19 percent higher.	

		With time the economy should be able to adjust to higher energy prices, but in the		short run, any supply-disrupting events, including labor strikes, severe weather, or		terrorism, may cause energy prices to jump. By varying degrees, these spikes would be		likely to weigh on overall economic growth while adding volatility to the outlook.		Moreover, this risk is likely to stay in play for several more years, given the long		lags required to add new energy production capacity and expectations for continued		global growth in energy demand.	

***Housing***The risk of a housing slowdown is another area of concern going forward. The recent		housing boom has been unprecedented in modern U.S. history.2  It has been suggested by		many analysts that the housing boom has been a significant contributor to gains in		consumer spending in recent years. Indeed, a number of the FDIC roundtable panelists		pointed to the apparent connection between rising real estate wealth during the past		four years and the sustained strength in consumer spending during that period.		Because consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity,		any shock to consumer spending, such as that which might be caused by a housing		slowdown, is a concern to overall economic growth.	

		It is very likely that housing wealth has been a significant factor behind growth		in consumer spending. Through the use of cash-out refinancing, increased mortgage		balances, and greater use of home equity lines of credit, as well as through owners		selling homes outright and cashing in on their accumulated equity, it is estimated		that anywhere from $444 billion to $600 billion was liquidated from housing wealth		during 2005.3  Whichever estimate one uses, the total almost surely eclipses the $375		billion gain in after-tax income for the year. While probably not all of the home		equity liquidated during 2005 fed consumption spending (much of it was invested into		other assets, including second or vacation homes), these statistics illustrate how		important home equity has become as a source of household liquidity.	

 There are concerns, however,	    that changes in the structure of mortgage lending could pose new risks	    to housing. These changes are most	    evident		  in the rising popularity		of interest-only and payment-option mortgages, which allow borrowers		  to afford more  expensive homes relative to their income, but which		  also increase variability in		borrower payments and loan balances. To the extent that some borrowers		  with these  innovative mortgages may not fully understand the potential		  variability in their		payments over time, the credit risk associated with these instruments		  could be  difficult to evaluate. In addition, the degree of effective		  leverage in home-purchase		loans has risen in recent years with the advent of so-called �piggy-back� mortgage		 structures that substitute a second-lien mortgage for some or all of		the traditional		down payment. Meredith Whitney noted at the roundtable that the recent		use of  revolving home equity lines of credit in lieu of down payments		has enabled an		increasing number of first-time buyers to qualify for homes that		they otherwise  could not afford. (Click		here to link to the complete	text	of Ms. Whitney�s		remarks	in the transcript.)	

 Overall, Ms. Whitney�s	    research suggests that a group that includes approximately 10 percent of	    U.S. households may be at heightened	    risk of credit problems in the current environment. This group mainly	    includes households that gained access to mortgage credit for the first	    time during	    the recent expansion of subprime and innovative mortgage loan programs.	    Not only do many borrowers in this group have pre-existing credit problems,	    they may also be more vulnerable than other groups to rising interest	    rates because of their reliance on interest-only and payment-option mortgages.	    These types of mortgages have the potential for significant payment shock	    that occurs when low introductory interest rates expire, when index rates	    rise, or when these loans eventually begin to require regular amortization	    of principal including any deferred interest that has accrued (see Chart	    2). 

d

 Because of the importance	    of mortgage lending to bank and thrift earnings, the large-scale changes	    that have taken place in this sector	    will clearly have		implications for the banking outlook. Bank exposure to mortgage and home	    equity	lending is now at peak levels. As reported in the FDIC�s latest *Quarterly	    Banking Profile* (http://www2.fdic.gov/qbp/index.asp), 1-4 family residential	    mortgages and home equity lines of credit accounted for a combined 38	    percent of total loans and leases in fourth quarter 2005, well above the	    roughly	    one-third		share maintained at the beginning of the decade. 

		Housing analysts are in disagreement as to whether or not recent signs point to a		moderation in housing activity or the beginning of a more significant correction.		Currently, inventories of unsold homes and sales volumes are among the indicators		pointing to a housing slowdown. Inventories of unsold existing homes rose from under		four months of supply at current sales volume in early 2005 to 5.3 months of supply		as of January 2006. Meanwhile, the pace of existing home sales has been trending		lower since last summer. A clear trend in the direction of home sales and prices		may not be evident until the completion of the peak spring and summer selling		season later this year.	

		Many analysts argue that home prices in the hottest coastal markets,		especially in the Northeast and California, could be poised to decline		in the near future. For example, PMI Mortgage Insurance Company analysts		place essentially even odds that home prices will decline during the next		two years in a dozen cities in California and the Northeast.4		Should home prices either stop rising or begin to fall in these areas, local banks and		thrifts would need to look to non-residential loans to support revenue growth.	

 Art McMahon of the OCC	    outlined the banking industry�s reliance	    on mortgage lending during his remarks at the FDIC roundtable. (Click		 here to link to the		full text of Mr. McMahon�s remarks in the transcript.)		Mr. McMahon acknowledged that previous historical episodes of large metro-area		home price declines were generally the result of severe local economic		distress.5 Should some regional housing market downturns occur, banks		may be	hard-pressed		to		generate non-residential loans in great volume. Historically, regional		housing price declines have tended to be associated with a slowdown in		small	business		activity, with banks making fewer commercial and industrial loans in		addition	to suffering mortgage and consumer portfolio stress.	

***Consumer Debt and Lack of Saving***		A large, long-term increase in consumer indebtedness has raised concerns		that the next U.S. recession could originate in the household sector.		The housing boom of recent years has resulted in a surge in new consumer		debt, most of it in the form of mortgages. Historically, recessions have		provided an opportunity for households and businesses to retrench and rebuild		balance		sheets that might have become strained late in the previous expansion.		The	response of businesses during the 2001 recession provides a classic example		in this regard as investment, spending, and hiring activities were curtailed		sharply from their heady, late-1990s pace. In part because of the wealth-offset		provided by housing, however, the long �jobless recovery� following the 2001		recession did not weigh heavily on the consumer sector. Consumers did slow		their pace of spending growth in 2001 and 2002, but spending growth never fell		below a 1 percent annual pace in any quarter�and in no quarter did it actually		decline. By contrast, during the early 1990s recession, consumer		spending declined for two straight quarters. At this point in time, however,		the consumer sector has not experienced a real recession in 15 years. 

 In some sense, this	    long recession hiatus itself raises concerns. Consumers have gradually	    become more indebted over time�so much so that	    they are now spending more in aggregate than they earn, resulting in	    the much-lamented		negative personal savings rate.6  The personal savings rate may turn out	    to be a bit of a statistical anachronism in an economy where so much	    spending is driven by the accumulation of wealth rather than current	    income. Even	    so,		home prices will not boom forever. Even a moderation in home-price growth	    would reduce the amount of new home equity added to the economy each	    year. This slower accumulation of wealth, coupled with rising interest	    rates that	    increase the cost of tapping that wealth, could soon begin to curtail	    the pace of U.S. consumer spending growth. Just as there has been a positive	    wealth effect from soaring home prices in recent years, the concern is	    that	    an end to the housing boom could result in a slowdown in consumer spending	    growth. However, it is important to keep in mind that such an outcome	    would likely play out over several years, as happened during the boom. 

 The risk posed by a slower	    rate of home equity growth was also discussed by the FDIC roundtable panel.	    It should be noted that in	    only the first six		years of this decade, the value of net housing wealth (or owners� equity)		held by U.S. households has risen by over $5 trillion. Keep in mind that		this is the net gain, after allowing for a record increase in mortgage		debt. Moreover, the increase in net housing wealth during the first half		of this decade alone was two to three times as large as the gains posted		during each of the prior two decades. Although some new buyers have put		very little down on their home and thus have accumulated little equity,		many longtime homeowners have accumulated significant additional equity		that remains untapped. At the FDIC roundtable event, panelist Kathleen		Camilli noted this untapped wealth as a potential area of support for		consumer spending going forward. History supports Ms. Camilli�s stance.		During the past 50 years, the nominal value of U.S. housing wealth has		declined only once in a meaningful way�in 1990, in the midst of the bi-coastal		residential real estate bust. Although falling home prices might take		a dent	out of wealth and spending, it would take some time to totally neutralize		the effects of a $5 trillion wealth gain. 

**The Banking Industry Appears Well Positioned for the Next Recession**

 Historically, the fortunes	    of the  banking business have varied with economic cycles, but the worst	    of times in recent	memory were not predominantly the result of recession. During the roundtable	    discussion,  FDIC Chief Economist Richard Brown pointed out that, as one	    would expect, loan growth	tends to decline and charge-offs tend to rise during recessions. Even so,	    the industry  has seen its biggest swings outside of the U.S. business cycle.	    As an example, Mr. Brown	pointed to the �100-year flood� of losses in the banking and thrift industries,	or the  failure of over 2,500 federally-insured banks and thrifts between 1980	and 1993. Chart 3	shows that while there have been increases in bank failures during and immediately	after  recessions, these increases are dwarfed by the episodic surge in failures	between 1980	and 1993. This wave of failures took place during a period that included	two U.S.  recessions and a seven-and-a-half-year economic expansion. During	this period,	according to Brown, the U.S. economy experienced a rolling regional recession	that  moved from the farm belt to the oil patch to the Northeast to Southern	California.	This rolling regional recession featured some significant regional boom and	bust  cycles in real estate. These real estate busts were partly due to the	1986 amendment	to federal tax laws on real estate investments.  This tax policy change essentially	 dampened demand for commercial real estate investment and put downward pressure	on	real estate prices.7 Poor risk management practices and fraud also were common	factors  in the episodic wave of bank and thrift failures.(Click	here to link to the complete	text of Mr. Brown�s remarks in the transcript.)	The lesson  of this episode appears to be that the business cycle is not	necessarily the dominant	factor in explaining banking industry performance�and failures, in particular�in    the modern period.

d

 The first half of this	    decade provides another example of how the fortunes of the banking industry	    need not directly follow the performance	    of the U.S.		economy. During and just after the 2001 recession, the U.S. economy experienced	    the loss of trillions of dollars in stock market wealth and the failure	    of		hundreds of publicly traded companies, including Enron and WorldCom.	    Associated with this corporate turmoil was a significant credit event	    for large banks that		had made loans to corporate borrowers. Between 2000 and 2002, the annual	    loan	loss provisions for FDIC-insured institutions rose by $18 billion�a	    61 percent increase. Meanwhile, job growth recovered very slowly, with	    payroll employment		not reaching its pre-recession level until early 2005. Despite this adversity,	    FDIC-insured institutions posted record earnings every year between 2001	    and 2005. 

 Part of the reason that	    the banking industry has been able to produce such strong financial results	    amid economic adversity was the	    response of monetary		policy to the recession itself. Between 2000 and 2002�as the corporate credit		event was boosting the industry�s provision expenses�low nominal interest rates		and a steep yield curve were helping to boost net interest income by		some $33 billion, while the industry was also able to realize gains on the		sale of		securities of $11 billion. These offsetting factors were more than double		the	increase in credit losses. 

 Given its strong current	    financial position, the banking industry appears to be generally well positioned	    to meet the challenges	    of the next recession.		At the January roundtable, both Brown and McMahon pointed to the banking	    industry�s historically strong earnings, reserves, and capital as significant		buffers against future economic downturns. That said, as always, risk management		practices will play a crucial role in determining how economic adversity might		affect the industry�s bottom line. Strong underwriting practices, effective		management of loan concentrations, proper servicing procedures, and well-designed		policies to hedge against market volatility were all cited as essential		risk management tools for the industry. The true test of these industry practices		will occur down the road when the recession scenario finally becomes		a reality. 

		To access the complete transcript of the 2006 FDIC Economic Outlook proceedings,		    click		  here.

**Endnotes**

1				See: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, In Focus This Quarter: Stroke-of-the-Pen				Risk, FDIC Outlook, Fall 2005, http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/regional/ro20053q/na/.               

2			In February and May 2005, the FDIC published two FYI reports on the topic of �U.S. Home Prices: Does Bust Always Follow Boom?� See: http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/fyi/2005/021005fyi.html and http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/fyi/2005/050205fyi.html.			

3			The more conservative $444 billion estimate is the sum of Freddie Mac�s estimates for cash-out refinancings and increased loan balances from mortgage consolidation ($279 billion in 2005) plus the $165 billion gain in home equity lines of credit during 2005. The bigger estimate calculated by some analysts takes the $1,067 billion growth in total residential mortgages in 2005 and subtracts the $467 billion in new residential construction put in place last year.			

4			For more information, see: PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., �Economic and Real			Estate Trends,� Winter 2006, http://www.pmigroup.com/lenders/media_lenders/pmi_eret06v1s.pdf.			916kb (PDF Help). 

5			For additional information, see: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, �U.S. Home Prices: Does Bust Always Follow Boom?� FYI, February 10, 2005 (revised April 8, 2005), http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/fyi/2005/021005fyi.html.			

6			According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the savings of U.S.			households in 2005 totaled a negative $34 billion, or -0.4 percent of total			disposable personal income for the year. Although the personal savings rate			has trended consistently lower over the last 20 years, 2005 marks the first			year since the Great Depression for which the ratio fell below zero.			

7			 For more information, see: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation,			 History of the Eighties�Lessons for the Future, Chapter 3, �Commercial Real		 Estate Crises of the 1980s and Early 1990s,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       �  http://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/history/137_165.pdf	336kb (PDF		 Help).
**Comments      and Inquiries**Send      comments or questions on the *FYI* to Norman Williams [email protected]      Send feedback and technical questions about the *FYI* series to:[email protected]      All media inquiries should be addressed to: David Barr, FDIC Office of Public      Affairs, [email protected]**About      *FYI****FYI*      is an electronic bulletin summarizing current information about the trends      that are driving change in the banking industry, plus links to the wide      array of other FDIC publications and data tools. **Disclaimer**The views      expressed in *FYI* are those of the authors and do not necessarily      reflect official positions of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.      Some of the information used in the preparation of this publication was      obtained from publicly available sources that are considered reliable. However,      the use of this information does not constitute an endorsement of its accuracy      by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.FYI      Home    Subscribe    Unsubscribe                                                                               |
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|  | Last Updated	03/23/2006                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        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