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## National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification

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#### Contents

- Introduction
- Forecast verification          procedures
- Annual NHC verification          reports
- Official five-year mean          errors and distributions
- Official error trends
- Model error trends
- NHC official forecast          error database
- Performance measures and          goals
- References

### 1. Introduction

NHC receives frequent      inquiries on the accuracy and skill of its forecasts and of the      computer models available to it. To help answer these questions,      these verification web pages were established in March 2005. The      development of this resource will be completed in stages;      ultimately all available records dating back to the earliest NHC      forecasts in 1954 will be included. A digital database of NHC      official track forecast errors has been constructed for the period      1970 to the present, and it is this period that is presented      initially here. A digital database of intensity errors has been      constructed dating back to 1990. These pages will be updated as      extensions to the database are completed. Questions on NHC      forecast verifications may be directed to John.P.Cangialosi@noaa.gov.

Note: A number of the      documents included here are in PDF format. You may need to install      the free Acrobat®        Reader to view and print these documents.

Next: Forecast verification        procedures

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