Seismicity of the Afghanistan Region

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U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

USGS Fact Sheet 2005-3038

April 2005

Assessing the Seismic Hazards of Afghanistan

Following decades of strife and hardship, Afghanistan 

is recovering and rebuilding. Reconstruction of the 

country’s infrastructure and development of its natural 

resources are progressing but are jeopardized by the omnipresent threat of strong, damaging earthquakes to much of the 

country (fig. 1). Afghanistan is located in a tectonically active 

region where earthquakes have historically caused damage, not 

only from strong ground shaking and surface rupture, but also 

from liquefaction and extensive landsliding.

To accurately assess the seismic hazards of Afghanistan, the 

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using a multiphase strategy to collect data and relevant information. The USGS will 

analyze these data and utilize this information to develop a 

suite of probabilistic national seismic hazard maps. These maps 

will provide the Afghan Government and the international 

community with scientifically 

based forecasts about the level 

of seismic hazard in various 

parts of the country, ensuring 

that the country’s reconstructed 

infrastructure is both durable and 

resistant to earthquake catastrophies. Additionally, the hazard 

maps will allow the design and 

construction of each structure to 

be tailored to the local hazard 

level, thereby optimizing the balance of safety and cost. 

The USGS seismic-hazard 

assessment involves at least six 

elements:

1. Compile regional catalogs of 

historical and instrumental 

earthquakes and prepare 

maps

2. Develop a seismotectonic 

map

3. Conduct studies of earthquake 

source zones and develop a 

Quaternary fault map

4. Provide training for Afghan 

scientists and technicians

5. Establish a regional network 

of seismographs to monitor 

earthquakes

6. Develop a regional seismic 

hazard map

Regional catalog of historical and instrumental 

earthquakes

A comprehensive master catalog of historical and instrumental earthquakes in the region is a fundamental first step in 

assessing the seismic hazard. This catalog will merge records of 

significant historical earthquakes that span many centuries with 

the more recent instrumentally located earthquakes. Although 

the more recent earthquakes will have more accurate locations 

and magnitudes, a catalog of large historical earthquakes that 

spans many centuries is a valuable resource for hazard analysis. 

The catalog will be used to generate seismicity maps and is 

essential input for determining the seismotectonic framework as 

well as the seismic hazard.

Figure 1. Preliminary instrumental seismicity of the Afghanistan region. Locations and magnitudes 

for earthquakes from 1900 through 1963 are from the “Centennial Catalog” of Engdahl and Villasenor 

(2002, International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, Academic Press, 

p. 665–690). Locations and magnitudes for earthquakes from 1964 through 2004 are from the current 

version of the global earthquake catalog calculated with the methodology of Engdahl, van der Hilst, 

and Buland (1998, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 88, p. 722–743). h, depth in 

kilometers.

Printed on recycled paper
Seismotectonic map of Afghanistan

A seismotectonic map showing information about geologically young (Quaternary) faulting is needed to conduct a seismic hazard analysis and to create hazard maps (fig. 2). A typical 

seismotectonic map shows earthquakes, young faults, stress 

orientations, tectonic setting, and other relevant information. 

Seismotectonic data for Afghanistan come from existing 

earthquake catalogs, paleoseismic studies, geologic maps and 

reports, and from insights developed while compiling this information.

The seismotectonic map of Afghanistan provides a structural and tectonic framework for interpreting the distribution 

of earthquakes and surface-rupturing faults in the country. The 

seismotectonic map is a tool for hazard analysts and is also useful to other earth scientists who seek an overview of the likely 

sources of earthquakes.

Earthquake source zones and the 

Quaternary fault map

Seismic source zones are active geological structures that 

generate earthquakes. The objective of studying them is to 

understand the timing and extent of large-magnitude (M>6.5) 

prehistoric earthquakes. Many structures that generate large 

earthquakes are expressed at the ground surface, commonly 

as faults or folds. Detailed studies of these features provide 

crucial information about the long-term rates of movement, the 

amount of slip during individual earthquakes, and the times of 

past movements. Information on prehistoric earthquakes (which 

is termed paleoseismology) helps supplement the catalogs of 

historical and instrumental earthquakes. For example, faults that 

have repeat times of hundreds to thousands of years for largemagnitude earthquakes may not have ruptured in the relatively 

short historical record. By extending the seismic record back 

thousands of years we get a more complete picture of the potentially damaging geological structures in the country. 

Proposed technical training

A key goal of USGS activities in Afghanistan is to foster 

the development of in-country expertise in seismic monitoring 

and hazard assessment. As part of this program, the USGS will 

provide hands-on training for Afghan geophysicists, geologists, 

and technicians in the installation and maintenance of seismic 

networks, geological investigations of active faults, and the collection and analysis of seismological data.

Proposed seismic and deformation monitoring 

in Afghanistan

Earthquakes and the damaging ground motion that they 

generate are the direct result of movement on faults, and these 

movements are caused by forces that originate deep within the 

Earth. To accurately assess the hazard posed by earthquakes, it 

is essential to understand the style and rate of deformation in the 

Earth’s crust. Earthquakes release strain that accumulates as a 

result of the ongoing deformation, so identifying the areas and 

rates of strain accumulation yields a first-order evaluation of 

seismic hazard.

Figure 3 shows the distribution of proposed collocated seismic and Global Positioning System (GPS) stations (blue stars) 

and supplementary GPS stations (yellow stars) that are needed 

to develop a basic understanding of the earthquake potential 

and hazards for Afghanistan. Seven collocated seismic and GPS 

stations are distributed across the country in order to adequately 

monitor the seismically active northeastern part of the country, 

as well as areas near the Afghan-Iran and Afghan-Pakistan borders where earthquakes can potentially cause extensive damage. 

By collocating seismographs and continuous real-time GPS 

systems at these sites, we can map the broad deformation field 

across major tectonic boundaries and selected active faults. 

The yellow stars in figure 3 show locations of proposed 

semipermanent GPS stations that can be deployed for varying 

lengths of time to provide high-resolution deformation rates 

on the active fault systems in northeastern Afghanistan. These 

stations could be placed at independent sites where they can 

continuously collect data for as long as 1 year. These data can 

be used to determine local deformation rates and to define the 

interactions among fault systems. At the present time, regional 

deformation rates, which are most accurately obtained from 

GPS data, are poorly known for much of central Asia and 

Afghanistan. In the most seismically active parts of Afghanistan, there are no direct measurements of crustal deformation. 

Modern GPS and seismic networks can answer crucial questions about the total rate and local variations of crustal deformation and associated seismicity throughout Afghanistan, which 

is vital to assessing earthquake hazards and identifying active 

faults.

Figure 2. Generalized diagram showing sources of information 

(indicated in blue) and interim steps needed to develop seismic hazard 

maps. EQ, earthquake.

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For more information, contact:

U.S. Geological Survey

Geologic Hazard Team

MS 966, P.O. Box 25046

Denver, Colorado 80225-0046

http://geohazards.cr.usgs.gov/

Earthquake catalog: Stuart Sipkin, 

sipkin@usgs.gov, 303-273-8415

Seismotectonics: Russell Wheeler, 

wheeler@usgs.gov, 303-273-8589

Quaternary faults: Michael Machette, 

machette@usgs.gov, 303-273-8612

Seismic networks: Harley Benz, 

benz@usgs.gov, 303-273-8497

Project coordinator: Anthony Crone, 

crone@usgs.gov 303-273-8591

Design and layout: Margo Johnson

Figure 3. Shuttle radar 

topographic map of 

Afghanistan showing 

locations of proposed 

GPS and seismograph 

stations. Map credit: 

Peter G. Cherico, 

USGS.

Lowest hazard

Highest hazard

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24-32

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2-4

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% g

Figure 4. Simplified seismic hazard map for the United States.

Seismic hazard maps

 By determining the locations and frequency of earthquakes, the 

seismotectonic setting, and fault rupture times and patterns, we can 

make scientific forecasts and create maps that show the probable 

amount of ground motion (during shaking) for both specific localities (such as Kabul) and for larger regions, such as the entire country. Figure 4 shows a generalized hazard map for the United States. 

The contours, from low to high hazard, are based on the percent g 

(acceleration due to the force of gravity) during ground shaking. 

The map closely follows the distribution of modern seismicity, but 

active faults have a profound effect in areas of low to moderate 

historical seismicity, such as the Western United States. Such maps 

of Afghanistan will allow the government and private sector to 

make informed decisions about the design and placement of critical 

structures, such as hospitals, dams, pipelines, and other essential 

elements of the country’s infrastructure.

Harley Benz, Michael Machette, Stuart Sipkin 

and Russell Wheeler

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