From: Kenneth Winder [mailto:kwinder@mleainc.com]  

Sent: Friday, November 04, 2011 3:31 PM

To: Richard Parker

Cc: Alex Hofmann; Andrew Delaski; Aris Marantan; Art Rosenfeld; Bob Saint; Bob Smith; Brian Coffey;

Caitlin Johnson; Carlos Gaytan; Caskey, John; charlie drexler; Charlie Stevens; Chris Bolduc; Chris Brown;

Clark Silcox; Creevy, Jim; Dan Cohen; Daniel Young; David Flaten; Eric Peterson; Freeman, Jeremiah; Gary

Fernstrom; Greg Coulter; Greg Rosenquist; Hirsch, Bruce R; James Lass; Jennifer Tiedeman; Jerry

Corkran; Jerry Hodge; Jerry Schoen; Jim Raba; Joanna Mauer; John Cymbalsky; John Rossetti; Katie

Coughlin; Mahesh P. Sampat; Matthew Nardotti; Maxine Savitz; Meg Waltner; Meyers, Aaron; Michael

Hyland; Michael Rivest; Millure, Dave; Phil Harter; Phil Hopkinson; Polinski, Raymond; Puesh Kumar; Rick

Anderson; Rob Greeson; Robert Berman; Robert van Buskirk; Robin Roy; Ryan, Paul; Scott Beck;

Simmons, Chuck; Steve Nadel; Steve Rosenstock; Thomas Petrosino; Tim Ballo; Tom Eckman; Wes

Patterson; Zhimei Luo

Subject: Re: MV Transformers Material Price Sensitivity Analysis

Richard, Greg and Colleagues:

    As a Utilities Group, we have discussed the Manufacturer's Material Price spreadsheet, per your

request.   

    We feel that the response from the Manufacturer's and Supplier's Groups will define the priority

scenarios needing to be analyzed.  We will not be sending a recommendation, but will rely upon their

judgement since that is their area of expertise.

Ken

‐‐  

Kenneth A. Winder, P.E.

Manager‐Engineering

Moon Lake Electric Association

800 W Hwy 40

PO Box 278

Roosevelt UT 84066

435.722.5406 Office
435.724.1539 Cell

435.722.5466 Fax

E‐Mail:       kwinder@mleainc.com

Web Site:    www.mleainc.com

  

On 11/4/2011 9:20 AM, Richard Parker wrote:  

Colleagues,

There have been a number of requests for additional LCC runs with various material prices reflecting

concerns with possible shortages of supply under various standards scenarios.

Attached is a sheet that summarizes the price sensitivity analysis that is currently in the pipeline: ranging

from 2006 minus 25% on the low side to 2008 plus 25% on the high side.   

For amorphous that yields a range from $1.72/lb to $3.64/lb, with a base case (2010) of 2.38/lb.   

For ZDMH, the range is from $1.41 to $3.22 with a base of 2.05.  (A sensitivity is already being run with

ZDMH screened entirely out of the analysis, reflecting concerns that this material may not be available

due to a reluctance to supply the North American market allegedly due to fear of dumping duties.)

As we discussed, each run takes several hours per design line so we obviously cannot accommodate all

requests, nor would it be instructive to do so absent some credible price scenario that is not currently

being modeled and that lies outside these boundaries.

So what I would propose is this:  Could industry participants in the MV Group please communicate with

each other today, examine the attached sheet and  

(a) try to arrive at a collective determination of whether there is reason to believe that  proposed range

of prices is really to narrow such that additional run is warranted; and

(b) if so, propose the set of prices that you would like to see run, and a short explanation/justification

for your request.

Greg Coulter has kindly agreed to serve as the coordinator for this effort so please work with him.  If for
any reason, issues of confidentiality prevent you from communicating with Greg and others in open

forum please let me know and I will discuss with you how to proceed.   

You also will need to choose a couple of design lines to focus on.  I understand that DL 1 and 2 are the

lines with the most shipments in the liquid immersed category.  If you have preferences for MVDT

please convey them with your request (perhaps DL 12?).  I would expect that we could manage runs for

3 design lines.  

Again, the consultants are swamped with work accommodating the input they've gotten from the group

so far, so please do not make work for them by requesting additional runs unless there really is good

cause for doing so.   

Please let us know by cob today what your preferences are.

All best,

Richard