10-D-i

APPENDIX 10-D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE 

USING ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10-D.1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................10-D-1

10-D.2 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO ..................10-D-2

10-D.3 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO...................10-D-3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10-D.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic 

Growth Scenario ...................................................................................10-D-2

Table 10-D.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, High Economic 

Growth Scenario ...................................................................................10-D-3

Table 10-D.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario ...................................................................................10-D-3

Table 10-D.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario ...................................................................................10-D-3

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 10-D.1.1 Housing Starts Forecast Under Alternative AEO2010 Economic 

Growth Scenarios..................................................................................10-D-1

Figure 10-D.1.2 Average Residential Electricity Price Forecasts under Alternative 

AEO2010 Economic Growth Scenarios.................................................10-D-2
10-D-1

APPENDIX 10-D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE 

USING ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS

10-D.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix presents national energy savings (NES) and net present value 

(NPV) results using inputs from alternative economic growth scenarios. The scenarios 

use the energy price and housing starts forecasts in the High Economic Growth case and 

the Low Economic Growth case from EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO 2010).

i

Figures 10-D.1.1 and 10-D.1.2 show the forecasts for housing starts and 

residential electricity prices under the different economic growth scenarios. AEO2010

provides a forecast to 2035. To estimate the trend after 2035, DOE followed guidelines 

that the EIA had provided to the Federal Energy Management Program, which called for 

using the average rate of change for electricity during 2020–2035.

Figure 10-D.1.1 Housing Starts Forecast Under Alternative 

AEO2010 Economic Growth Scenarios
10-D-2

Figure 10-D.1.2 Average Residential Electricity Price 

Forecasts under Alternative AEO2010 

Economic Growth Scenarios

10-D.2 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

Table 10-D.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic 

Growth Scenario

Trial Standard 

Level

Efficiency Level Combination NES NWS

Front Top quads trillion gal

1 2 2 1.86 1.38

2 4 5 1.72 1.26

3 5 2, 6 2.37 3.51

4 7 7 3.29 6.10

5 8 8 3.79 7.80
10-D-3

Table 10-D.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, High 

Economic Growth Scenario

Trial Standard 

Level

Efficiency Level Combination 3% 7%

Front Top billion 

2010$

billion 

2010$

1 2 2 29.40 12.38

2 4 5 26.41 10.86

3 5 2, 6 47.77 19.32

4 7 7 66.32 25.86

5 8 8 80.86 31.52

10-D.3 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

Table 10-D.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario

Trial Standard 

Level

Efficiency Level Combination NES NWS

Front Top quads trillion gal

1 2 2 1.59 1.19

2 4 5 1.47 1.07

3 5 2, 6 2.02 3.00

4 7 7 2.82 5.22

5 8 8 3.24 6.68

Table 10-D.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low

Economic Growth Scenario

Trial Standard 

Level

Efficiency Level Combination 3% 7%

Front Top billion 

2010$

billion 

2010$

1 2 2 22.62 9.79

2 4 5 20.15 8.49

3 5 2, 6 37.34 15.43

4 7 7 51.93 20.61

5 8 8 63.61 25.25
10-D-4

REFERENCES

 

i

 U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy 

Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035. May 2010. U.S. DOE–EIA: Washington, 

D.C. DOE/EIA-0383(2010).