10

- D

- i APPENDIX 10

- D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE
USING ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10

- D.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ............................ 10

- D

- 1

10

- D.2 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCEN ARIO

.................. 10

- D

- 2

10

- D.3 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

................... 10

- D

- 3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10

- D.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic

Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ................... 10

- D

- 2
Table 10

- D.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, High Economic

Grow th Scenario

................................ ................................ ................... 10

- D

- 3
Table 10

- D.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic

Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ................... 10

- D

- 3
Table 10

- D.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic

Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ................... 10

- D

- 3

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 10

- D.1.1 Housing Starts Forecast Under Alternative AEO2010 Economic
Growth Scenarios

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- D

- 1 Figure 10

- D.1.2 Average Residential Electricity Price Forecasts under Alternative
AEO2010 Economic Growth Scenarios

................................ ................. 10

- D

- 210

- D

- 1 APPENDIX 10

- D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE

USING ALTERNATIVE EC ONOMIC GROWTH SCENAR IOS

10

- D.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix presents national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) results using inputs from alternative economic growth scenarios . The scenarios use the energy price and housing starts forecasts in the High Economic Growth case and
the Low E conomic Growth case fr om EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2010 ( AEO 2010 )

. i

Figures 10

- D.1.1 and 10

- D.1.2 show the forecasts for housing starts and residential electricity prices under the different economic growth scenarios. AEO2010 provides a forecast to 20 35. To estimate the trend after 2035, DOE followed guidelines that the EIA had provided to the Federal Energy Management Program, which called for using the average rate of ch ange for electricity during 2020

– 2035.

Figure 10

- D.1.1 Housing Starts Forecast Under Alternative
AEO2010 Economic Growth Scenarios10

- D

- 2 Figure 10

- D.1.2 Average Residential Electricity Price
Forecasts under Alternative AEO2010
Economic Growth Scenarios

10

- D.2 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCEN ARIO

Table 10

- D.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic
Growth Scenario

Trial Standard

Level Efficiency Level Combination NES NWS

Front Top quads trillion gal

1 2 2 1.86 1.38

2 4 5 1.72 1.26

3 5 2, 6 2.37 3.51

4 7 7 3.29 6.10

5 8 8 3.79 7.8010

- D

- 3 Table 10

- D.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits
, High
Economic Growth Scenario

Trial Standard

Level Efficiency Level Combination 3% 7%

Front Top billion 2010$ billion 2010$

1 2 2 29.40 12.38

2 4 5 26.41 10.86

3 5 2, 6 47.77 19.32

4 7 7 66.32 25.86

5 8 8 80.86 31.52

10

- D.3 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

Table 10

- D.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic
Growth Scenario

Trial Standard

Level Efficiency Level Combination NES NWS

Front Top quads trillion gal

1 2 2 1.59 1.19

2 4 5 1.47 1.07

3 5 2, 6 2.02 3.00

4 7 7 2.82 5.22

5 8 8 3.24 6.68

Table 10

- D.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits
, Low
Economic Growth Scenario

Trial Standard

Level Efficiency Level Combination 3% 7%

Front Top billion 2010$ billion 2010$

1 2 2 22.62 9.79

2 4 5 20.15 8.49

3 5 2, 6 37.34 15.43

4 7 7 51.93 20.61

5 8 8 63.61 25.2510

- D

- 4 REFERENCES

i U.S. Department of Energy

– Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy
Outlook 20 10 with Projections to 203 5 . May 2010. U.S. DOE

– EIA: Washington,

D.C

. DOE/EIA -0383(2010 ).