Ozone Health Risk Assessment 

for Selected Urban Areas 
EPA 452/R-07-009

July 2007 

Ozone Health Risk Assessment 

For Selected Urban Areas 

By: 

Ellen Post 

Andreas Maier 

Hardee Mahoney 

Abt Associates, Inc. 

Bethesda, MD 

Prepared for: 

Nancy Riley, Project Officer 

Harvey Richmond, Work Assignment Manager 

Health and Environmental Impacts Division 

Contract No. 68-D-03-002 

Work Assignment 3-39 and 4-56

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards 

Health and Environmental Impacts Division 

Ambient Standards Group 

Research Triangle Park, NC
Abt Associates Inc. i December 2006 

DISCLAIMER

 This report is being furnished to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

(EPA) by Abt Associates Inc. in partial fulfillment of Contract No. 68-D-03-002, Work 

Assignments 3-39 and 4-56. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations 

are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EPA or Abt 

Associates. Earlier drafts of this document were formally reviewed by the Clean Air 

Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC) and made available for public comment. This 

document has been informed by the expert advice and comments received from the 

CASAC, as well as public comments submitted by several organizations, including 

environmental groups, industrial groups and companies, and State air pollution 

organizations. Any questions concerning this document should be addressed to Harvey 

Richmond, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and 

Standards, C504-06, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711 (email: 

richmond.harvey@epa.gov). 

 Any analyses, interpretations, or conclusions presented in this report based on 

hospitalization and mortality data obtained from outside sources, are credited to the 

authors and not the institutions providing the raw data. Furthermore, Abt Associates 

expressly understands that the Michigan Health and Hospital Association has not 

performed an analysis of the hospitalization data obtained or warranted the accuracy of 

this information and, therefore, it cannot be held responsible in any manner for the 

outcome. 

 
Abt Associates Inc. ii December 2006 

PREFACE TO JULY 2007 EDITION 

This July 2007 edition contains revised lung function risk estimates based on revised 

exposure estimates resulting from technical corrections to the exposure model made 

subsequent to the January 2007 editions of the Staff Paper and accompanying Technical 

Support Document (TSD). As noted in chapters 4 and 5 of the July 2007 edition of the 

Staff Paper, a small error was detected in the exposure model in January 2007 that 

resulted in small increases in the exposure estimates. This error has been corrected and 

the model runs have been redone, generally resulting in small increases in the exposure 

estimates. The revised lung function risk estimates, based on the corrected exposure 

estimates, are generally slightly higher than the original estimates presented in the 

January 2007 edition of the Staff Paper and accompanying TSD. The corrected lung 

function risk estimates for all children and for asthmatic children are presented in this 

edition of the TSD in Chapter 3 and associated appendices as well as in the July 2007 

edition of the Staff Paper. Due to time constraints, however, the lung function risk 

estimates for active children, presented in Appendix C of the TSD, were not revised. 

Also due to time constraints, the date on the footer was not updated to July 2007. 

Sections 1, 2, and 4 of this edition of the TSD and the results in the Appendices for health 

endpoints other than lung function remain unchanged with the exception of some minor 

corrections and updates to several references. 

 
Abt Associates Inc. iii December 2006 

Table of Contents 

1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1-1

2 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS................................................................ 2-1

2.1 The Broad Empirical Basis for a Relationship Between O3 and Adverse 

Health Effects ............................................................................................... 2-1 

2.2 Basic Structure of the Risk Assessment ....................................................... 2-2 

2.3 Air Quality Considerations........................................................................... 2-4 

3 ASSESSMENT OF RISK BASED ON CONTROLLED HUMAN 

EXPOSURE STUDIES .......................................................................................... 3-1

3.1 Methods ........................................................................................................3-1 

3.1.1 Selection of health endpoints ..............................................................3-1 

3.1.2 Development of exposure-response functions .................................... 3-3 

3.1.3 Approach to calculating risk estimates ............................................... 3-6 

3.1.4 Selection of urban areas ......................................................................3-9 

3.1.5 Addressing variability and uncertainty ............................................. 3-10 

3.2 Results.........................................................................................................3-18 

3.2.1 Assessment of lung function decrement associated with exposure 

to “as is” O3 concentrations in excess of policy relevant 

background levels.............................................................................. 3-18 

3.2.1.1 Results for all school age children.............................................3-18 

3.2.1.2 Results for asthmatic school age children.................................. 3-26 

3.2.2 Assessment of lung function decrement associated with exposure 

to O3 concentrations that just meet the current and alternative daily 

maximum 8-hour standards............................................................... 3-29 

3.2.2.1 Results for all locations for the current standard and the 

original set of seven alternative standards, based on 2002 and 

2004 air quality data................................................................... 3-29 

3.2.2.2 Results for five locations for the current standard and two 

alternative standards, based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 air 

quality data.................................................................................3-52 

3.2.2.2.1 Results for all school age children.............................................3-52 

3.2.2.2.2 Results for asthmatic school age children.................................. 3-60 

3.3 Sensitivity Analyses.................................................................................... 3-68 

3.3.1 PRB sensitivity analysis.................................................................... 3-68 

3.3.2 Exposure-response functional form sensitivity analysis................... 3-76 

4 ASSESSMENT OF RISK BASED ON EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES.......4-1

4.1 Methods ........................................................................................................4-1 

4.1.1 General approach ................................................................................ 4-1 

4.1.2 Air quality considerations ................................................................... 4-5 

4.1.3 Selection of health endpoints ..............................................................4-7 

4.1.4 Selection of urban areas ......................................................................4-7 
Abt Associates Inc. iv December 2006 

4.1.5 Selection of epidemiological studies................................................... 4-8 

4.1.6 A summary of selected health endpoints, urban areas and studies .....4-9 

4.1.7 Selection of concentration-response functions.................................. 4-11 

4.1.8 Baseline health effects incidence considerations ..............................4-22 

4.1.9 Addressing uncertainty and variability .............................................4-26 

4.1.9.1 Concentration-response functions.............................................. 4-31 

4.1.9.1.1 Uncertainty associated with the appropriate model form .......... 4-32 

4.1.9.1.2 Uncertainty associated with the estimated concentrationresponse functions in the study locations.............................. 4-32 

4.1.9.1.3 Applicability of concentration-response functions in different 

locations ................................................................................4-35 

4.1.9.1.4 Extrapolation beyond observed air quality levels......................4-36 

4.1.9.2 The air quality data ....................................................................4-36 

4.1.9.2.1 Adequacy of O3 air quality data .................................................4-36 

4.1.9.2.2 Estimation of PRB O3 concentrations ........................................4-37 

4.1.9.2.3 Simulation of reductions in O3 concentrations to just meet the 

current or an alternative standard..........................................4-38 

4.1.9.3 Baseline health effects incidence rates ......................................4-38 

4.1.9.3.1 Quality of incidence data ........................................................... 4-38 

4.1.9.3.2 Lack of daily health effects incidence rates...............................4-40 

4.2 Results.........................................................................................................4-40 

4.2.1 Assessment of the health risks associated with “as is” O3

concentrations in excess of policy relevant background levels ........4-41 

4.2.1.1 Assessment of the health risks associated with 2004 and 2002 

“as is” O3 concentrations in excess of policy relevant 

background levels ......................................................................4-41 

4.2.1.2 Assessment of the mortality risks associated with 2003 “as is” 

O3 concentrations in excess of policy relevant background 

levels in five urban areas............................................................ 4-60 

4.2.2 Assessment of the reduced health risks associated with O3

concentrations that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour 

standards............................................................................................ 4-63 

4.2.2.1 Results for all locations for the current standard and the 

original set of seven standards, based on 2002 and 2004 air 

quality data.................................................................................4-63 

4.2.2.2 Results for five locations for the current standard and two 

alternative standards, based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 air 

quality data...............................................................................4-102 

4.3 Sensitivity Analyses.................................................................................. 4-113 

5 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................... 5-1
Abt Associates Inc. v December 2006 

List of Tables 

Table 3-1. Study-Specific Ozone Exposure-Response Data for Lung Function 

Decrements .......................................................................................................... 3-4 

Table 3-2. Urban Areas Used in the Controlled Human Studies-Portion of the O3

Risk Assessment and Their O3 Seasons............................................................. 3-10 

Table 3-3. Population Coverage of Modeled Areas...................................................... 3-11 

Table 3-4. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function 

Response Associated with Exposure to “As Is” O3 Concentrations Over 

Background O3 Concentrations Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in 

Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 3-19 

Table 3-5. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function 

Response Associated with Exposure to “As Is” O3 Concentrations Over 

Background O3 Concentrations Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in 

Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 3-20 

Table 3-6. Number and Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate 

Exercise Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response 

Associated with Exposure to “As Is” O3 Concentrations Over Background O3

Concentrations, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3 Concentrations .. 3-21 

Table 3-7. Number and Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate 

Exercise Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response 

Associated with Exposure to “As Is” O3 Concentrations Over Background O3

Concentrations, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3 Concentrations .. 3-22 

Table 3-8. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function 

Response (Decrease in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3

Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among All Children 

(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Location-Specific O3

Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004..........................................................................3-23 

Table 3-9. Number and Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate 

Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response 

(Decrease in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3

Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for Location-Specific 

O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004.....................................................................3-24 

Table 3-10. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function 

Response (Decrease in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3

Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among Asthmatic 

Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Location-Specific 

O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004.....................................................................3-27 

Table 3-11. Number and Percent of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in 

Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function 

Response (Decrease in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3

Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for Location-Specific 

O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, 2004 ...........................................................................3-28 
Abt Associates Inc. vi December 2006 

Table 3-12. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response 

Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current 

and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children 

(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3

Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations.....................................3-31 

Table 3-13. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response 

Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current 

and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children 

(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3

Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations.....................................3-33 

Table 3-14. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response 

Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current 

and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children 

(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3

Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations.....................................3-35 

Table 3-15. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response 

Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current 

and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children 

(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3

Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations.....................................3-37 

Table 3-16. Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise 

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated 

with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and 

Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3

Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations.....................................3-39 

Table 3-17. Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise 

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated 

with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and 

Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3

Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations.....................................3-41 

Table 3-18. Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise 

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated 

with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and 

Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3

Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations.....................................3-43 

Table 3-19. Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise 

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated 

with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and 

Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3

Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations.....................................3-45 

Table 3-20. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change 

in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just 

Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards 

Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Five 

Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 3-53 
Abt Associates Inc. vii December 2006 

Table 3-21. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change 

in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just 

Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards 

Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Five 

Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 3-54 

Table 3-22. Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion 

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Change in 

FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet 

the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for 

Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 3-55 

Table 3-23. Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion 

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Change in 

FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet 

the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for 

Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 3-56 

Table 3-24. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change 

in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just 

Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards 

Among Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for 

Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 3-61 

Table 3-25. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change 

in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just 

Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards 

Among Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for 

Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 3-62 

Table 3-26. Number of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate 

Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response 

(Change in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations 

That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Standards, for Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 

2004 O3 Concentrations ..................................................................................... 3-63 

Table 3-27. Percent of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate 

Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response 

(Change in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations 

That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Standards, for Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 

2004 O3 Concentrations ..................................................................................... 3-64 

Table 3-28. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung 

Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Among All Children (Age 5-

18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Associated with Exposure to O3
Abt Associates Inc. viii December 2006 

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 

8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons........................................ 3-70 

Table 3-29. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of All Children (Ages 5-

18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One 

Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure 

to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily 

Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons ......................3-71 

Table 3-30. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of All Children (Ages 5-

18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One 

Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure 

to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily 

Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons ......................3-72 

Table 3-31. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of Asthmatic Children 

(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least 

One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%) Associated with 

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 

Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons ............3-73 

Table 3-32. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of Asthmatic Children 

(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least 

One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%) Associated with 

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 

Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons ............3-74 

Table 3-33. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Asthmatic Children 

(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least 

One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%) Associated with 

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 

Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons ............3-75 

Table 4-1. Locations and Health Endpoints Included in the O3 Risk Assessment 

Based on Epidemiological Studies....................................................................... 4-9 

Table 4-2. Summary of Locations, Concentration-Response Functions, Months 

Included and Counties Included.........................................................................4-14 

Table 4-3. Relevant Population Sizes for O3 Risk Assessment Locations ................... 4-23 

Table 4-4. Baseline Mortality Rates (per 100,000 Population) for 2002 for O3 Risk 

Assessment Locations........................................................................................ 4-24 

Table 4-5. ICD-9 Codes used in Epidemiological Studies and Corresponding ICD10 Codes............................................................................................................. 4-25 

Table 4-6. Baseline Rates for Hospital Admissions Used in the O3 Risk Assessment. 4-26 

Table 4-7. Key Uncertainties in the Risk Assessment.................................................. 4-29 

Table 4-8. Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3

Concentrations Above Background: April – September, 2004 ......................... 4-50 
Abt Associates Inc. ix December 2006 

Table 4-9. Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3

Concentrations Above Background: April – September, 2002 ......................... 4-52 

Table 4-10. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3

Concentrations Above Background: April – September, 2004 ........................ 4-54 

Table 4-11. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3

Concentrations Above Background: April – September, 2002 ........................ 4-55 

Table 4-12. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations 

Above Background: New York, NY, April – September, 2004 ........................ 4-56 

Table 4-13. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations 

Above Background: New York, NY, April – September, 2002 ........................ 4-57 

Table 4-14. Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3

Concentrations: April - September, 2003 .......................................................... 4-61 

Table 4-15. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3

Concentrations: April - September, 2003 .......................................................... 4-62 

Table 4-16. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3

Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily 

Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2004 O3 Concentrations...4-76 

Table 4-17. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant 

Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and 

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 

2004 O3 Concentrations ..................................................................................... 4-78 

Table 4-18. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality 

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 

8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2004 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 4-80 

Table 4-19. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3

Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily 

Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2002 O3 Concentrations...4-82 

Table 4-20. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant 

Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and 

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 

2002 O3 Concentrations ..................................................................................... 4-84 

Table 4-21. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality 

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 

8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2002 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 4-86 

Table 4-22. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3

Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily 

Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2004 O3 Concentrations..4-88 

Table 4-23. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population 

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 

8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2004 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 4-89 

Table 4-24. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality 

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 
Abt Associates Inc. x December 2006 

8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2004 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 4-90 

Table 4-25. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3

Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily 

Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2002 O3 Concentrations..4-91 

Table 4-26. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population 

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 

8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2002 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 4-92 

Table 4-27. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality 

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 

8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 2002 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 4-93 

Table 4-28. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations 

that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum 

Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on 2004 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 4-94 

Table 4-29. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population 

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 

8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, 

Based on 2004 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................4-95 

Table 4-30. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with 

O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily 

Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on 2004 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 4-96 

Table 4-31. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations 

that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum 

Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on 2002 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 4-97 

Table 4-32. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population 

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 

8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, 

Based on 2002 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................4-98 

Table 4-33. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with 

O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily 

Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on 2002 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................... 4-99 

Table 4-34. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3

Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily 

Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................. 4-104 

Table 4-35. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant 

Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and 

Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, 

Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations...................................................4-105 
Abt Associates Inc. xi December 2006 

Table 4-36. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality 

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two 

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 

Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................................. 4-106 

Table 4-37. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3

Concentrations that Just Meet the Current andTwo Alternative 8-Hour Daily 

Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations ................................................................................................. 4-107 

Table 4-38. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population 

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two 

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 

Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................................. 4-108 

Table 4-39. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality 

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two 

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on 

Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................................. 4-109 

Table 4-40. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of 

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - 

September, 2004 .............................................................................................. 4-114 

Table 4-41. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of 

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - 

September, 2002 .............................................................................................. 4-115 

Table 4-42. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of 

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet 

the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 

2004.................................................................................................................. 4-116 

Table 4-43. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of 

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet 

the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 

2002.................................................................................................................. 4-117 

Table 4-44. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of 

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet 

An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - 

September, 2004 .............................................................................................. 4-118 

Table 4-45. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of 

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet 

An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - 

September, 2002 .............................................................................................. 4-119 

Table 4-46. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of 
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Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet 

An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - 

September, 2004 .............................................................................................. 4-120 

Table 4-47. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy 

Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of 

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet 

An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - 

September, 2002 .............................................................................................. 4-121 

Table 4-48. Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated 

with "As Is" O3 Concentrations Down to Policy Relevant Background (PRB) 

Versus 0 ppb: April - September, 2004 ........................................................... 4-122 

Table 4-49. Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated 

with "As Is" O3 Concentrations Down to Policy Relevant Background (PRB) 

Versus 0 ppb: April - September, 2002 ........................................................... 4-124 
Abt Associates Inc. xiii December 2006 

List of Figures 

Figure 3-1. Components of Ozone Health Risk Assessment Based on Controlled 

Human Exposure Studies..................................................................................... 3-2 

Figure 3-2. Bayesian-Estimated (90% Logistic and 10% Linear) Median ExposureResponse Functions: Change in FEV1 > 10%, 15%, and 20% ............................3-6 

Figure 3-3. a, b, c. Probabilistic Exposure-Response Relationships for FEV1

Decrement > 10%, > 15%, and > 20% for 8-Hour Exposures Under 

Moderate Exertion ............................................................................................... 3-7 

Figure 3-4. Probabilistic Exposure-Response Relationships for FEV1 Decrement > 

10%, > 15%, and > 20% for 8-Hour Exposures Under Moderate Exertion: 

Comparison of 90% Logistic/10% Linear (Hockeystick) Split and 80% 

Logistic/20% Linear (Hockeystick) Split in Assumed Relationship Between 

Exposure and Response ..................................................................................... 3-13 

Figure 3-5. Probabilistic Exposure-Response Relationships for FEV1 Decrement > 

10%, > 15%, and > 20% for 8-Hour Exposures Under Moderate Exertion: 

Comparison of 90% Logistic/10% Linear (Hockeystick) Split and 50% 

Logistic/50% Linear (Hockeystick) Split in Assumed Relationship Between 

Exposure and Response ..................................................................................... 3-14 

Figure 3-6. Median Exposure-Response Functions Using Three Different 

Combinations of Logistic and Linear (Hockeystick) Models............................3-15 

Figure 3-7. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of 

Occurrences of Lung Function Response Among All School Age Children 

when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current 

Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, for Each 

of the Three Definitions of Response ................................................................ 3-47 

Figure 3-8. Percent Reductions of Occurrences of Decrement in FEV1 >15% Among 

All School Age Children when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those 

Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each 

Alternative Standard, Separately for Each Location..........................................3-48 

Figure 3-9. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of All 

School Age Children Experiencing at Least One Occurrence of Lung 

Function Response when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just 

Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each 

Alternative Standard, for Each of the Three Definitions of Response .............. 3-49 

Figure 3-10. Percent Reductions in Numbers of All School Age Children 

Experiencing at Least One Decrement in FEV1 >15% when O3

Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to 

Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, Separately for Each 

Location .............................................................................................................3-50 

Figure 3-11. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Two 

Alternative Standards in All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate 

Exertion Experiencing at Least One O3-Related Decrement in FEV1≥15%, 

Separately for Each of Five Locations............................................................... 3-57 

Figure 3-12. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Two 

Alternative Standards in Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in 
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Moderate Exertion Experiencing at Least One O3-Related Decrement in 

FEV1≥10%, Separately for Each of Five Locations .......................................... 3-65 

Figure 3-13. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of ExposureResponse Function on Estimated Percent Changes in Numbers of All 

Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Experiencing at Least 

One Decrement in FEV1 >15% when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from 

Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet 

Each of Several Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Five 

Location-Specific O3 Seasons............................................................................ 3-78 

Figure 3-14. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of ExposureResponse Function on Estimated Percent Changes in Numbers of Asthmatic 

Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Experiencing at Least 

One Decrement in FEV1 >10% when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from 

Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet 

Each of Several Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Five 

Location-Specific O3 Seasons............................................................................ 3-80 

Figure 4-1. Major Components of Ozone Health Risk Assessment Based on 

Epidemiology Studies .......................................................................................... 4-3 

Figure 4-2. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated 

with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background: Single-Pollutant, 

Single-City Models (April – September)...........................................................4-43 

Figure 4-3. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated 

with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April – September): 

Single-Pollutant vs. Multi-Pollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004), additional 

pollutants, from left to right: none, CO, NO2, PM10, SO2] ...............................4-44 

Figure 4-4. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated 

with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April – September): 

Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) ..........................4-45 

Figure 4-5. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated 

with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April – September): 

Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) – Based on 

Huang et al. (2004) ............................................................................................4-46 

Figure 4-6. Estimated Annual Percent of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for 

Pneumonia in Detroit Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above 

Background (April – September): Different Lag Models – Based on Ito 

(2003) [bars from left to right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lag models] 4-47 

Figure 4-7. Estimated Annual Percent of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with 

Short-Term Exposure to “As Is” O3 Above Background for the Period April – 

September (Based on Bell et al., 2004 – 95 U.S. Cities) – Total and 

Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges .................................................................. 4-48 

Figure 4-8. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated 

with Short-Term Exposure to “As Is” O3 Above Background for the Period 

April – September (Based on Huang et al., 2004 – 19 U.S. Cities) – Total and 

Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges .................................................................. 4-49 

Figure 4-9. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated 

with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-
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Hour Standard is Just Met: Single-Pollutant, Single-City Models (April – 

September) ......................................................................................................... 4-65 

Figure 4-10. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated 

with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-

Hour Standard is Just Met (April – September): Single-Pollutant vs. MultiPollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004), additional pollutants, from left to 

right: none, CO, NO2, PM10, SO2] .................................................................... 4-66 

Figure 4-11. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated 

with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-

Hour Standard is Just Met (April – September): Single-City Model (left bar) 

vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) ........................................................................4-67 

Figure 4-12. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated 

with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-

Hour Standard is Just Met (April – September): Single-City Model (left bar) 

vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) – Based on Huang et al. (2004) ..................... 4-68 

Figure 4-13. Estimated Annual Percent of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for 

Pneumonia in Detroit Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above 

Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April – 

September): Different Lag Models – Based on Ito (2003) [bars from left to 

right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lag models] ........................................ 4-69 

Figure 4-14. Estimated Annual Percent of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated 

with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Policy Relevant Background for the 

Period April – September When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met 

(Based on Bell et al., 2004 – 95 U.S. Cities) – Total and Contribution of 24-

Hour O3 Ranges ................................................................................................. 4-70 

Figure 4-15. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated 

with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Policy Relevant Background for the 

Period April – September When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met 

(Based on Huang et al., 2004 – 19 U.S. Cities) – Total and Contribution of 

24-Hour O3 Ranges............................................................................................ 4-71 

Figure 4-16. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to 

Alternative Standards in O3-Related Non-Accidental Mortality, Separately 

for Each Location (Based on Bell et al., 2004 -- 95 U.S. Cities).......................4-72 

Figure 4-17. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to 

Alternative Standards in O3-Related Cardiorespiratory Mortality, Separately 

for Each Location (Based on Huang et al., 2004 -- 19 U.S. Cities)...................4-74 

Figure 4-18. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Two 

Alternative Standards in O3-Related Non-Accidental Mortality, Separately 

for Each Location (Based on Bell et al., 2004 -- 95 U.S. Cities).....................4-110 

Figure 4-19. Sensitivity Analysis of Estimated Percent Change in O3-Related NonAccidental Mortality (Using Bell et al., 2004 -- 95 U.S. Cities) From the 

Current Standard to Alternative 8-hr Standards and a Recent Year of Air 

Quality, Using Base Case, Higher, and Lower PRB Estimates....................... 4-126 
Abt Associates Inc. 1-1 December 2006 

Ozone Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas

1 INTRODUCTION 

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is presently conducting a 

review of the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for ozone (O3). Sections 

108 and 109 of the Clean Air Act (Act) govern the establishment and periodic review of 

the NAAQS. These standards are established for pollutants that may reasonably be 

anticipated to endanger public health and welfare, and whose presence in the ambient air 

results from numerous or diverse mobile or stationary sources. The NAAQS are to be 

based on air quality criteria, which are to accurately reflect the latest scientific knowledge 

useful in indicating the kind and extent of identifiable effects on public health or welfare 

that may be expected from the presence of the pollutant in ambient air. The EPA 

Administrator is to promulgate and periodically review, at five-year intervals, “primary” 

(health-based) and “secondary” (welfare-based) NAAQS for such pollutants.1 Based on 

periodic reviews of the air quality criteria and standards, the Administrator is to make 

revisions in the criteria and standards, and promulgate any new standards, as may be 

appropriate. The Act also requires that an independent scientific review committee 

advise the Administrator as part of this NAAQS review process, a function performed by 

the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC). 

 EPA’s overall plan and schedule for this O3 NAAQS review is presented in a Plan 

for Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone (EPA, 2005a), 

which is available at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/standards/ozone/s_o3_cr_pd.html . 

That plan discusses the preparation of two key documents in the NAAQS review process: 

an Air Quality Criteria Document (hereafter cited as CD) and a Staff Paper. The CD 

provides a critical assessment of the latest available scientific information upon which the 

NAAQS are to be based, and the Staff Paper evaluates the policy implications of the 

information contained in the CD and discusses standard-setting options for the 

Administrator to consider. In conjunction with preparation of the Staff Paper, staff in 

EPA’s Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) conducts various policyrelevant assessments, including in this review a quantitative exposure analysis and a 

human health risk assessment. Both the exposure analysis and the risk assessment 

require a quantitative analysis of O3 air quality. The methods and results of this analysis 

are described in Chapters 2 and 4 of the Staff Paper (EPA, 2007a) (hereafter “Staff 

Paper”) and in Fitz-Simons et al. (2005) and Rizzo (2005, 2006). The methods and 

results of the modeling of personal exposures are discussed in Chapter 4 of the Staff 

Paper and in an accompanying technical support document (EPA, 2007b). The methods 

and results of the human health risk assessment are described in this document. 

 

1

Section 109(b)(1) [42 U.S.C. 7409] of the Act defines a primary standard as one “the attainment 

and maintenance of which in the judgment of the Administrator, based on such criteria and allowing an 

adequate margin of safety, are requisite to protect the public health.” 
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As part of the last O3 NAAQS review, EPA conducted exposure analyses for the

general population; children, who spend more time outdoors; and outdoor workers.

Exposure estimates were generated for 9 urban areas for existing (referred to as “as is”)

air quality and for just meeting the existing 1-hour standard and several alternative 8-hour

standards. Several reports (Johnson et al., 1996a,b,c; Johnson, 1997) that describe these

analyses can be found at:

http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/standards/ozone/s_o3_pr_td.html. EPA also conducted a

health risk assessment that produced risk estimates for the number and percent of

children experiencing lung function and respiratory symptoms associated with the

exposures estimated for these same 9 urban areas. This portion of the risk assessment

was based on exposure-response relationships developed from analysis of data from

several controlled human exposure studies. The risk assessment for the last review also

included risk estimates for excess respiratory-related hospital admissions related to O3

concentrations for New York City based on a concentration-response relationship

reported in an epidemiology study. Risk estimates for lung function decrements,

respiratory symptoms, and hospital admissions were developed for “as is” air quality and

for just meeting the existing 1-hour standard and several alternative 8-hour standards.

Reports describing the health risk assessment (Whitfield et al., 1996; Whitfield, 1997)

can be found at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/standards/ozone/s_o3_pr_td.html.

The health risk assessment described in this report builds upon the methodology

and lessons learned from the exposure and risk work conducted for the last review. This

report is also based on the information and evaluation contained in the final O3 CD (EPA,

2006a) (hereafter O3 CD). The general approach used in the current risk assessment was

described in the draft Health Assessment Plan (EPA, 2005b), that was released to the

CASAC and general public in April 2005 for review and comment and was the subject of

a consultation with the CASAC O3 Panel on May 5, 2005. The approach used in the

current risk assessment reflects consideration of the comments offered by CASAC

members and the public on the draft Health Assessment Plan; comments offered on the

first drafts of the Staff Paper and Risk Assessment TSD at and subsequent to a

consultation with CASAC on December 8, 2005; CASAC comments provided to the

EPA in letters dated February 16, 2006 (Henderson, 2006a) and June 5, 2006

(Henderson, 2006b); and comments offered on the second draft Staff Paper and draft Risk

Assessment TSD at and subsequent to a consultation with CASAC on August 24 and 25,

2006, including CASAC comments provided to EPA in a letter dated October 24, 2006

(Henderson, 2006c).

The O3 health risk assessment described in this document estimates the health

effects associated with short-term exposures to O3 under recent (“as is”) air quality levels

and upon just meeting the current and several alternative O3 primary NAAQS in selected

sample urban areas. These assessments cover a variety of health effects for which there

is adequate information to develop quantitative risk estimates. However, there are

several health endpoints for which there currently is insufficient information to develop

quantitative risk estimates. These additional health endpoints are discussed qualitatively

in the Staff Paper. The risk assessment is intended as a tool that, together with other

information on these health endpoints and other health effects evaluated in the O3 CD and
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Staff Paper, can aid the Administrator in judging whether the current primary standard

protects public health with an adequate margin of safety, or whether revisions to the

standard are appropriate.

The basic structure of the risk assessment reflects the two different types of studies

on which the health risk assessment for O3 is based: controlled human exposure studies,

and epidemiological studies. This basic structure, as well as some preliminary

considerations, is described in Section 2. Section 3 describes the methods and results of

that portion of the risk assessment based on controlled human exposure studies. Section

4 describes the methods and results of that portion of the risk assessment based on

epidemiological studies.
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2 PRELIMINARY CONSIDERATIONS 

 The health risk assessment described in this report estimated various health 

effects associated with O3 exposures for recent (“as is”) O3 levels, based on 2002, 2003, 

and 2004 air quality data, as well as the reduced risks for one O3 season associated with 

just meeting the current 8-hour daily maximum O3 NAAQS and several alternative 8-

hour daily maximum standards. Risk estimates were developed for 12 urban areas 

located throughout the U.S. In this section we address preliminary considerations. 

Section 2.1 briefly discusses the broad empirical basis for a relationship between O3

exposures and adverse health effects. Section 2.2 describes the basic structure of the risk 

assessment. Finally, Section 2.3 addresses air quality considerations that affect both 

major portions of the risk assessment described in Section 2.2. 

 

2.1 The Broad Empirical Basis for a Relationship Between O3 and Adverse Health 

Effects 

 The health endpoints examined in the risk assessment include: lung function 

decrements, respiratory-related hospital admissions, and mortality. In addition, estimates 

of respiratory symptoms in asthmatic children were developed for one urban area. The 

empirical basis for a relationship between O3 exposures and adverse human health effects 

extends well beyond these specific health effects, however, and is by now considered 

quite solid. 

 In its October 24, 2006 letter to the EPA administrator (Henderson, 2006c), the 

CASAC affirmed this solid empirical basis, quoting and concurring with EPA’s own 

assessment, as stated in the second draft Staff Paper (EPA, 2006b): 

“... While being mindful of important remaining uncertainties, staff concludes 

that the newly available information generally reinforces our judgments about 

causal relationships between O3 exposure and respiratory effects observed in the 

last review and broadens the evidence of O3-related associations to include 

additional respiratory-related endpoints, newly identified cardiovascular-related 

health endpoints, and mortality. Newly available evidence also has identified 

increased susceptibility in people with asthma. While recognizing that important 

uncertainties and research questions remain, we also conclude that progress has 

been made since the last review in advancing our understanding of potential 

mechanisms by which ambient O3, alone and in combination with other 

pollutants, is causally linked to a range of respiratory- and cardiovascular-related 

health endpoints.” (Pages 6-6 and 6-7) 

 The CASAC pointed to “several new single-city studies and large multi-city 

studies designed specifically to examine the effects of ozone and other pollutants on both 

morbidity and mortality” that have “provided more evidence for adverse health effects at 

concentrations lower than the current standard.” (Henderson, 2006c, p. 3). The CASAC 

also pointed to the results from controlled human exposure studies, noting that “these 
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findings were observed in healthy volunteers” and that, although similar studies in 

sensitive groups such as asthmatics have not yet been conducted, “people with asthma, 

and particularly children, have been found to be more sensitive and to experience larger 

decrements in lung function in response to ozone exposures than would healthy 

volunteers” (Henderson, 2006c, p. 4). 

 The CASAC also noted that, in addition to the lung function decrements seen in 

controlled human exposure studies, “adverse health effects due to low-concentration 

exposure to ambient ozone (that is, below the current primary 8-hour NAAQS) ... 

include: an increase in school absenteeism; increases in respiratory hospital emergency 

department visits among asthmatics and patients with other respiratory diseases; an 

increase in hospitalizations for respiratory illnesses; an increase in symptoms associated 

with adverse health effects, including chest tightness and medication usage; and an 

increase in mortality (non-accidental, cardiorespiratory deaths) reported at exposure 

levels well below the current standard. The CASAC considers each of these findings to be 

an important indicator of adverse health effects” (Henderson, 2006c, p. 4). 

2.2 Basic Structure of the Risk Assessment 

 At this time, two general types of human studies are particularly relevant for 

deriving quantitative relationships between O3 levels and human health effects: controlled 

human exposure studies and epidemiological studies. Controlled human exposure studies 

involve volunteer subjects who are exposed while engaged in different exercise regimens 

to specified levels of O3 under controlled conditions for specified amounts of time. The 

responses measured in such studies have included measures of lung function, such as 

forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), respiratory symptoms, airway 

hyperresponsiveness, and inflammation. As noted above, prior EPA risk assessments for 

O3 have included risk estimates for lung function decrements and respiratory symptoms 

based on analysis of individual data from controlled human exposure studies. For the 

current health risk assessment, we used exposure-response relationships based on 

analysis of individual data that describe the relationship between a measure of personal 

exposure to O3 and the measure(s) of lung function recorded in several studies. The 

measure of personal exposure to ambient O3 is typically some function of hourly 

exposures – e.g., 1-hour maximum or 8-hour maximum. Therefore, a risk assessment 

based on exposure-response relationships derived from controlled human exposure study 

data requires estimates of personal exposure to O3, typically on a 1-hour or multi-hour 

basis. Because data on personal hourly O3 exposures are not available, estimates of 

personal exposures to varying ambient concentrations were derived through exposure 

modeling, as described in the exposure analysis technical support document (EPA, 

2007b). 

 In contrast to the exposure-response relationships derived from controlled human 

exposure studies, epidemiological studies provide estimated concentration-response (CR) relationships based on data collected in real world settings. Ambient O3 concentration 

is typically measured as the average of monitor-specific measurements. Population 
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health responses for O3 have included lung function decrements, respiratory symptoms in

moderate to severe asthmatic children, asthma emergency department visits, respiratoryrelated hospital admissions and premature mortality. As described more fully below, a

risk assessment based on epidemiological studies requires baseline incidence rates and

population data for the risk assessment locations.

The characteristics that are relevant to carrying out a risk assessment based on

controlled human exposure studies versus one based on epidemiology studies can be

summarized as follows:

 A risk assessment based on controlled human exposure studies uses exposureresponse functions, and therefore requires as input (modeled) personal

exposures to O3. A risk assessment based on epidemiology studies uses C-R

functions, and therefore requires as input (monitored) ambient O3

concentrations.

 Epidemiological studies are carried out in specific real world locations (e.g.,

specific urban areas). A risk assessment focused on locations in which the

epidemiologic studies providing the C-R functions were carried out will

minimize uncertainties. Controlled human exposure studies, carried out in

laboratory settings, are generally not specific to any particular real world

location. A controlled human exposure studies-based risk assessment can

therefore appropriately be carried out for any location for which there are

adequate air quality data on which to base the modeling of personal exposures.

 The adequate modeling of hourly personal exposures associated with ambient

concentrations requires more complete ambient monitoring data than are

necessary to estimate average ambient concentrations used to calculate risks

based on C-R relationships. Therefore, there may be some locations in which

an epidemiological studies-based risk assessment could appropriately be

carried out but a controlled human exposure studies-based risk assessment

would introduce significant additional uncertainty.

 To derive estimates of risk from C-R relationships estimated in

epidemiological studies, it is usually necessary to have estimates of the

baseline incidences of the health effects involved. Such baseline incidence

estimates are not needed in a controlled human exposure studies-based risk

assessment.

The methods and results for the two parts of the risk assessment – the part based on

controlled human exposure studies and the part based on epidemiological studies – are

discussed in Sections 3 and 4 below. Both parts of the risk assessment were implemented

within a new probabilistic version of TRIM.Risk, the component of EPA’s Total Risk

Integrated Methodology (TRIM) model that estimates human health risks.
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2.3 Air Quality Considerations

Both the portion of the risk assessment based on controlled human exposure studies

and the portion based on epidemiological studies include risk estimates for a recent year

of air quality (“as is” air quality) and for air quality adjusted so that it simulates just

meeting the current or alternative 8-hr O3 standards based on a recent three-year period

(2002-2004). This period was selected to represent the most recent air quality for which

complete data were available when the risk assessment was conducted.

In order to estimate health risks associated with just meeting the current and

alternative 8-hr O3 standards, it is necessary to estimate the distribution of hourly O3

concentrations that would occur under any given standard. Since compliance with the

current O3 standard is based on a 3-year average, air quality data from 2002 to 2004 were

used to determine the amount of reduction in O3 concentrations required to meet the

current standard. Estimated design values were used to determine the adjustment

necessary to just meet the current 8-hr daily maximum standard. The amount of control

was then applied to each year of data (2002, 2003, and 2004) to estimate risks for a single

O3 season or single warm O3 season, depending on the health effect, in each of these

individual years.

As described in section 4.5.6 of the Staff Paper and in more detail in Rizzo (2005,

2006), after considering several approaches, including proportional rollback and Weibull

adjustment procedures, EPA concluded that the Quadratic air quality adjustment

procedure generally best represented the pattern of reductions across the O3 air quality

distribution observed over the last decade. The Quadratic air quality adjustment

procedure was applied in each of the 12 urban areas to the filled in 2002, 2003, and 2004

O3 monitoring data, based on the 3-year period (2002-2004) O3 design values, to generate

new time series of hourly O3 concentrations for 2002, 2003, and 2004 that simulate air

quality levels that just meet the current 8-hr O3 standard and each of the alternative 8-hr

O3 standards considered in the risk assessment over this three year period.

Because compliance with the current standard is based on the 3-year average of the

4th daily maximum 8-hr values, the air quality distribution in each of the 3 years can and

generally does vary. As a result, the risk estimates associated with air quality just

meeting the current standard also will vary depending on the year chosen for the analysis.

The risk assessment includes risk estimates involving adjustment of 2002, 2003, and

2004 air quality data to illustrate the magnitude of this year-to-year variability in the

estimates. The year 2002 generally had meteorology that was very conducive to

producing O3 over the eastern half of the U.S., and this resulted in the highest O3 levels

over the 2002-2004 time period in the vast majority of the 12 urban study areas. In

contrast, 2004 was a year associated with an unusually cool and rainy summer in the

eastern half of the U.S. and this contributed to the fact that the lowest O3 levels over this

same three-year period were observed in this year in most of the urban areas included in

the risk assessment. The lower O3 levels observed in 2004 were also due, in part, to

reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) associated with implementation of

additional regional controls on large power plants in the eastern half of the U.S. The risk
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results for 2002 and 2004 thus provide generally lower-end and upper-end estimates of

the annual risks that can occur over a three-year period when alternative standards are

just met in most of the urban areas examined.

Daily maximum 1-hr and 8-hr O3 levels in 2003 generally fell somewhere between

2002 and 2004 levels in most of the 12 urban areas. Differences in meteorology were

less evident in Texas and California, and these areas also were not impacted by the recent

additional regional controls imposed on large power plants. It is therefore not surprising

that the daily maximum 8-hr levels observed in Houston in 2003 and 2004 were

somewhat higher than those observed in 2002 and that 8-hr levels were higher in Los

Angeles in 2003.

The risk estimates developed for both the recent air quality scenario and scenarios

in which O3 concentrations just meet the current or alternative 8-hr standards represent

risks associated with O3 levels in excess of estimated background concentrations. The

results of the global tropospheric O3 model GEOS-CHEM have been used to estimate

average background O3 levels for different geographic regions across the U.S. These

GEOS-CHEM simulations include a background simulation in which North American

anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides, non-methane volatile organic compounds,

and carbon monoxide are set to zero, as described in Fiore et al. (2003). EPA estimated

monthly background concentrations for each of the 12 urban areas based on the GEOSCHEM simulations, including daily diurnal profiles that were fixed for each day of each

month during the O3 season (see Appendix 2-A of the Staff Paper for plots of these

estimated background values).
3 ASSESSMENT OF RISK BASED ON CONTROLLED HUMAN EXPOSURE 

STUDIES 

3.1 Methods 

 

 The major components of the part of the health risk assessment based on data 

from controlled human exposure studies are illustrated in Figure 3-1. The air quality and 

exposure analysis components that are integral to this part of the risk assessment are 

discussed in Chapters 2 and 4, respectively, of the Staff Paper. As described in the O3

CD, there are numerous controlled human exposure studies reporting lung function 

decrements (as measured by changes in FEV1), other measures of lung function, airway 

responsiveness, respiratory symptoms, and various markers of inflammation. Most of 

these studies have involved voluntary exposures with healthy adults, although a few 

studies have been conducted with mild and moderate asthmatics and one study reported 

lung function decrements for children 8-11 years old (McDonnell et al., 1985a) at a single 

exposure level. 

3.1.1 Selection of health endpoints 

 In the last review, the health risk assessment estimated both lung function 

decrements (>10, >15, and >20% changes in FEV1) and respiratory symptoms in children 

6-18 years old associated with 1-hour exposures at moderate and heavy exertion and 8-

hour exposures at moderate exertion. At that time EPA staff and the CASAC O3 Panel 

judged that it was reasonable to estimate the exposure-response relationships for children 

6-18 years old based on data from adult subjects (18-35 years old). As discussed in the 

1996 O3 Staff Paper (EPA, 1996a) and 1996 O3 CD (EPA, 1996b), findings from other 

chamber studies (McDonnell et al., 1985a) for children 8-11 years old for a single 

exposure level and summer camp field studies involving children exposed to ambient O3

in at least six different locations in the United States and Canada found lung function 

changes in healthy children similar to those observed in healthy adults exposed to O3

under controlled chamber conditions. We are using the same approach in this 

assessment. 

 In the prior risk assessment, EPA estimated risk for lung function decrements 

associated with 1-hour heavy exertion, 1-hour moderate exertion, and 8-hour moderate 

exertion exposures. Since the 8-hour moderate exertion exposure scenario clearly 

resulted in the greatest health risks in terms of lung function decrements, EPA staff has 

chosen to include only the 8-hour moderate exertion exposures in the current risk 

assessment for this health endpoint. As discussed in Chapter 4 of the Staff Paper, levels 

of physical activity were categorized by a daily Physical Activity Index (PAI). Children 

were characterized as active if their median daily PAI over the period modeled was 1.75 

or higher, a level characterized by exercise physiologists as being “moderately active” or 

“active.” 

Abt Associates Inc. 3-1 December 2006 
Figure 3-1. Components of Ozone Health Risk Assessment Based on Controlled Human Exposure Studies 

Ambient 

Monitoring for 

Selected Urban 

Areas

Air Quality 

Adjustment 

Procedures

Current and 

Alternative 

Proposed 

Standards

Health 

Risk 

Model

Controlled Human 

Exposure Studies

Probabilistic 

Exposure -

Response 

Relationships

Exposure-Response

Air Quality

Modeled 

Background 

Concentrations

Recent 

(“As Is”) 

Ambient 

O3 Levels

Exposure 

Model

Exposure Estimates Associated with:•Background 

Concentrations

•Recent Air Quality•Current Standard•Alternative 

Standards

Exposure

Ambient 

Monitoring for 

Selected Urban 

Areas

Air Quality 

Adjustment 

Procedures

Current and 

Alternative 

Proposed 

Standards

Health 

Risk 

Model

Controlled Human 

Exposure Studies

Probabilistic 

Exposure -

Response 

Relationships

E posure-Response

Air Quality

Modeled 

Background 

Concentrations

Recent 

(“As Is”) 

Ambient 

O3 Levels

Exposure 

Model

Exposure Estimates Associated with:•Background 

Concentrations

•Recent Air Quality•Current Standard•Alternative 

Standards

Exposure

x

Abt Associates Inc. 3-2 
Abt Associates Inc. 3-3 December 2006 

 Although respiratory symptoms in healthy children were estimated in the last review, 

EPA staff has decided not to estimate respiratory symptoms in healthy children given the lack of 

symptoms found in field studies examining responses in healthy children published since the 

prior review. The O3 CD concludes that “collectively, these studies indicate that there is no 

consistent evidence of an association between O3 and respiratory symptoms among healthy 

children” (p. 7-55). While a number of controlled human exposure studies have been published 

since the last review reporting various other acute effects, including airway responsiveness and 

increases in inflammatory indicators, none of these studies were conducted at multiple 

concentration levels within the range of greatest interest (i.e., below 0.12 ppm). Thus, EPA staff 

has decided to limit this portion of the risk assessment to lung function decrements in children 

and to again base the exposure-response relationships on data obtained for 18-35 year old 

subjects. 

3.1.2 Development of exposure-response functions 

 We used a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate probabilistic 

exposure-response relationships for lung function decrements associated with 8-hour moderate 

exertion exposures, using the WinBUGS software (Spiegelhalter et al. (1996)). (For an 

explanation of these methods, see Gelman et al. (1995) or Gilks et al. (1996). The combined 

data set from the Folinsbee et al. (1988), Horstman et al. (1990), and McDonnell et al. (1991) 

studies provide three data points – lung function decrements associated with each of three O3

concentrations (0.08, 0.10, and 0.12 ppm) – for each of the three measures of lung function 

decrement listed above (>10, >15, and >20% changes in FEV1). In addition, we now have three 

studies by Adams (Adams 2002, 2003, and 2006) that provide data for O3 concentrations of 0.04 

and 0.06 ppm as well as additional data for 0.08 and 0.12 ppm. In total, then, we have data for 

five O3 concentrations – 0.04, 0.06, 0.08, 0.10, and 0.12 ppm. All of these studies were 

conducted for 6.6 hours under moderate exertion. 

 Before being used to estimate exposure-response relationships for 8-hour exposures, the 

data from these controlled human exposure studies were corrected for the effect of exercise in 

clean air to remove any systematic bias that might be present in the data attributable to an 

exercise effect. Generally, this correction for exercise in clean air is small relative to the total 

effects measures in the O3-exposed cases. The resulting study-specific results, based on the 

corrected data, are shown in Table 3-1. 

 Our Bayesian estimation approach incorporated both model (epistemic) uncertainty and 

(aleatory) uncertainty about the values of the parameters in the models considered. In particular, 

for each of the three measures of lung function decrement we assumed a 90 percent probability 

that the exposure-response function has the following 3-parameter logistic form:2,3

 

 

2

 As noted in Whitfield et al., 1996, the response data point in the combined dataset from the Folinsbee, Horstman, 

and McDonnell studies associated with 0.12 ppm for the response measure FEV1 ≥ 15% appeared to be inconsistent 

with the other data points (see Whitfield et al., 1996, Table 10, footnote c). Because of this, we estimated the 

probability of a response of FEV1 ≥ 15% at an O3 concentration of 0.12 ppm by interpolating between the FEV1 ≥

10% and FEV1 ≥ 20% response rates at that O3 concentration. 3

 The 3-parameter logistic function is a special case of the 4-parameter logistic, in which the function is forced to go 

through the origin, so that the probability of response to 0.00 ppm is 0. 
Abt Associates Inc. 

December 2006

3-4

Table 3-1. Study-Specific Ozone Exposure-Response Data for Lung Function Decrements 

Change in FEV1>10% Change in FEV1>15% 

Study and O3 Level Protocol Number 

Exposed 

Number 

Responding 

Number 

Exposed 

Number 

Responding 

0.04 ppm O3Adams (2006) Triangular 30

0 30

0 

Adams (2002) Square-wave, face mask 30 2 30

0 

0.06 ppm O3Adams (2006) Square-wave 30 2 30

0 

Triangular 30 2 30 2 

0.08 ppm O3Adams (2006) Square-wave 30 7 30 2 

Triangular 30 9 30 3 

Square-wave, chamber 30 6 30 2 Square-wave, face mask 30 9 30 3 Variable levels (0.08 ppm avg), chamber 

30 6 30 1 

Adams (2003) 

Variable levels (0.08 ppm avg), face mask 

30 5 30 3 

Adams (2002) Square-wave, face mask 30 6 30 5 F-H-M* Square-wave 60 18 60 11 0.1 ppm O3F-H-M Square-wave 32 13 32 9 0.12 ppm O3Adams (2002) Square-wave, chamber 30 17 30 12 

Square-wave, face

mask 30 21 30 13 

F-H-M Square-wave 30 15 30** 15** 

*Data from Folinsbee et al. (1988), Horstman et al. (1990), and McDonnell et al. (1991) are combined. 

**In general, the percentages of responders followed the same pattern at each of the three ozone concentrations in the Folinsbee, 

Horstm

the percentage with FEV1 decrements 

≥ 15% at a given ozone concentration was about midway between the percentages with FEV1 dec

that ozone concentration. The sole exception was the percentage with FEV1 decrements 

≥ 15% at an ozone concentration of 0.12 ppm, 

percentage with FEV1 decrements 

≥ 10% at 0.12 ppm (50%). This data point was therefore sufficiently inconsistent with the other data 

outlier and was not included in the analysis. 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

3-5

 )1)(1(

)1(* ),,;( γ γβ

γ β α γβα + ++

− = x

x

ee

ee

xy , (3-1) 

where x denotes the O3 concentration (in ppm) to which the individual is exposed, y denotes the 

corresponding response (decrement in FEV1 > 10%, > 15% or > 20%), and α, β, and γ are the 

three parameters whose values are estimated. 

 We assumed a 10 percent probability that the exposure-response function has the 

following linear (hockeystick) form: 

 

⎩

⎨

⎧

<+

+ >+ = ,0 0, 0

),;( xfor

xforx

xy βα

βαβα βα . (3-2) 

 We assumed that the number of responses, S, out of N subjects exposed to a given 

concentration, x, has a binomial distribution with response probability given by model (3-1) with 

90 percent probability and response probability given by model (3-2) with 10 percent probability. 

The choice of a 90 percent logistic/10 percent linear split as the base case for the current risk 

assessment was made by EPA staff (EPA, 2007a) based on the following considerations: 1) the 

prior 1997 risk assessment had used a linear form consistent with the advice from the CASAC O3

Panel at the time that a linear model reasonably fit the available data at 0.08, 0.10, and 0.12 ppm; 

2) with the addition of data at 0.06 and 0.04 ppm, a logistic model provides a very good fit to the 

data; and 3) as the current CASAC O3 Panel has noted, there is only very limited data at the two 

lowest exposure levels and, therefore, a linear model cannot entirely be ruled out. Section 3.3.2 

presents the results of sensitivity analyses that explore the impact of different assumptions about 

the functional form of the exposure-response function. 

 In some of the controlled human exposure studies, subjects were exposed to a given O3

concentration more than once – for example, using a square-wave exposure pattern in one 

protocol and a triangular exposure pattern in another protocol. However, because there were 

insufficient data to estimate subject-specific response probabilities, we assumed a single 

response probability (for a given definition of response) for all individuals and treated the 

repeated exposures for a single subject as independent exposures in the binomial distribution. 

 For each of the two functional forms (logistic and linear), we derived a Bayesian 

posterior distribution using this binomial likelihood function in combination with prior 

distributions for each of the unknown parameters. We assumed lognormal priors with maximum 

likelihood estimates of the means and variances for the parameters of the logistic function, and 

normal priors, similarly with maximum likelihood estimates for the means and variances, for the 

parameters of the linear function. For each of the two functional forms considered, we used 

1000 iterations as the “burn-in” period followed by 9,000 iterations for the estimation. Each 

iteration corresponds to a set of values for the parameters of the (logistic or linear) exposureresponse function. We then combined the 9,000 sets of values from the logistic model runs with 

the last 1,000 sets of values from the linear model runs to get a single combined distribution of 

10,000 sets of values reflecting the 90 percent/10 percent assumptions stated above. 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

3-6

 For any O3 concentration, x, we could then derive the nth percentile response value, for 

any n, by evaluating the exposure-response function at x using each of the10,000 sets of 

parameter values (9,000 of which were for a logistic model and 1,000 of which were for a linear 

model). The resulting median (50th percentile) exposure-response functions for changes in FEV1

> 10%, > 15% and > 20% are shown together in Figure 3-2. The 2.5th percentile, median, and 

97.5th percentile curves, along with the response data to which they were fit, are shown 

separately for each of the three response definitions in Figures 3-3a, b, and c, respectively. 

3.1.3 Approach to calculating risk estimates 

 We have generated several risk measures for this portion of the risk assessment. In 

addition to the estimates of the number of school age children and active children experiencing 1 

or more occurrences of a lung function decrement > 10%, > 15% and > 20% in an O3 season, 

risk estimates have been developed for the total number of occurrences of these lung function 

decrements in school age children and active school age children. The mean number of 

occurrences per child has been calculated to provide an indicator of the average number of times 

that a responder would experience the specified effect during an O3 season. 

 A headcount risk estimate for a given lung function decrement (e.g., >20% change in 

FEV1) is an estimate of the expected number of people who will experience that lung function 

decrement. To obtain risk estimates associated with ozone concentrations in excess of policy 

relevant background (PRB) concentrations, we have (1) estimated expected risk, given the 

personal exposures associated with “as is” ambient O3 concentrations, (2) estimated expected 

risk, given the personal exposures associated with estimated background ambient O3

concentrations, and (3) subtracted the latter from the former. The headcount risk is then 

calculated by multiplying the resulting expected risk by the number of people in the relevant 

population. Because response rates are calculated for 21 fractiles, estimated headcount risks are 

similarly fractile-specific. 

Figure 3-2. Bayesian-Estimated (90% Logistic and 10% Linear) Median Exposure-Response Functions: 

Change in FEV1 > 10%, 15%, and 20% 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

Delta FEV1>=10%

Delta FEV1>=15%

Delta FEV1>=20%
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

3-7

Figure 3-3. a, b, c. Probabilistic Exposure-Response Relationships for FEV1 Decrement > 10%, > 15%, and 

> 20% for 8-Hour Exposures Under Moderate Exertion* 

a) FEV1 Decrement > 10% 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

Original Response Data

2.5th percentile curve

median curve

97.5th percentile curve

b) FEV1 Decrement > 15% 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

Original Response Data

2.5th percentile curve

median curve

97.5th percentile curve

c) FEV1 Decrement > 20% 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

Original Response Data

2.5th percentile curve

median curve

97.5th percentile curve

* Derived from Folinsbee et al., 1988; Horstman et al. 1990; McDonnell et al., 1991; Adams 2002, 2003, 2006). 

Each curve is 90% logistic and 10% linear (see text above). 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

3-8

)

The risk (i.e., expected fractional response rate) for the kth fractile, Rk is: 

 )|( |( (Equation 3-1) 

1 1

b

ik

N

i

b

jk i

N

j

k j eRRxPR eRRxPb

∑ ∑ = =

= −

where: 

ej = (the midpoint of) the jth category of personal exposure to ozone, given “as is” 

ambient O3 concentrations; 

b

i e = (the midpoint of) the ith category of personal exposure to ozone, given background 

ambient O3 concentrations; 

Pj = the fraction of the population having personal exposures to O3 concentration of ej

ppm, given “as is” ambient O3 concentrations; 

b Pi = the fraction of the population having personal exposures to O3 concentration of 

ppm, given background ambient O b

i e 3 concentrations; 

jk | eRR = k-fractile response rate at O3 concentration ej; 

= k-fractile response rate at O b

ik | eRR 3 concentration ; and bi e

N = number of intervals (categories) of O3 personal exposure concentration, given “as is” 

ambient O3 concentrations; and 

Nb = number of intervals of O3 personal exposure concentration, given background 

ambient O3 concentrations. 

 For example, if the median expected response rate given “as is” ambient concentrations is 

0.065 (i.e., the median expected fraction of the population responding is 6.5%) and the median 

expected response rate given background ambient concentrations is 0.001 (i.e., the median 

expected fraction of the population responding is 0.1%), then the median expected response rate 

associated with “as is” ambient concentrations above PRB concentrations is 0.065 – 0.001 = 

0.064. If there are 300,000 people in the relevant population, then the headcount risk is 0.064 x 

300,000 = 19,200. 

An artifact of the method used is that the population numbers associated with PRB 

concentrations were not identical to those associated with “as is” concentrations (or 

concentrations rolled back to simulate just meeting current or alternative standards) in the same 

location. Before calculating risk estimates associated with ozone concentrations in excess of 

PRB concentrations, we therefore first normalized the number of responders (or the number of 

occurrences of response) given personal exposures associated with “as is” ambient O3
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

3-9

concentrations (or concentrations rolled back to simulate just meeting a standard) by multiplying 

by the ratio of the population associated with PRB concentrations to the population associated 

with “as is” concentrations (or concentrations rolled back to simulate just meeting current or 

alternative standards in the same location). For example, the number of person-days for all 

children in St. Louis associated with PRB concentrations was 39,500,000; the number of persondays for all children in St. Louis associated with “as is” concentrations was 42,310,000. The 

ratio of the former to the latter is 0.9336. The number of person-days with a decrease in FEV1

>10% given personal exposures associated with “as is” ambient O3 concentrations was 391,011. 

After normalizing to the background population of person-days, this becomes 365,042. The 

number of person-days with a decrease in FEV1 >10% given personal exposures associated with 

PRB O3 concentrations was 50,183. The number of occurrences of a decrease in FEV1 >10% 

associated with “as is” ambient O3 concentrations over PRB concentrations was therefore 

calculated to be 365,042 - 50,183 = 314,859, or about 315,000. 

3.1.4 Selection of urban areas 

 EPA staff chose to develop lung function decrement risk estimates for school age 

children and active school age children living in 12 urban areas in the U.S. Since the exposureresponse functions for lung function decrements based on the controlled human exposure studies 

were based on controlled laboratory conditions, the location of these studies played no role in 

selecting urban locations for the risk assessment. Instead, several criteria and considerations 

guided the selection of urban areas for the risk assessment, including the following: 

• The overall set of urban locations should represent a range of geographic areas, urban 

population demographics, and climatology, and be focused on areas that do not meet the 

current 8-hour O3 NAAQS. 

• The largest areas with major O3 nonattainment problems should be included. 

• There must be sufficient air quality data for the three-year period (2002 - 2004). 

 Several additional criteria, which apply to the epidemiology-based portion of the risk 

assessment, are discussed below in Section 4.1.4. Because the same 12 urban areas were used in 

both the controlled human studies- and the epidemiological studies-based portions of the risk 

assessment, these additional criteria were used to further narrow the choice of urban areas for 

which lung function decrement risk estimates were developed. 

 For the purposes of estimating population exposure and the risk of lung function 

decrements associated with these population exposure estimates, the 12 urban areas were defined 

based on consolidated statistical areas (CSAs). In contrast, for the risk estimates for premature 

mortality and excess hospital admissions based on C-R relationships estimated in 

epidemiological studies, the urban areas were defined to be generally consistent with the 

geographic boundaries used in those studies. While risk estimates in the epidemiology-based 

portion of the O3 risk assessment are based on the months of April through September, risk 

estimates in the controlled human studies-based portion are based on the actual location-specific 

O3 seasons. The CSAs and their O3 seasons are shown in Table 3-2. Throughout the rest of this 

report, the urban area in bold is used as a short-hand name representing the entire CSA for the 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

3-10

lung function part of the risk assessment. The populations of all, active, and asthmatic school 

age children in these areas are shown in Table 3-3. 

3.1.5 Addressing variability and uncertainty 

Any estimation of risk and reduced risks associated with just meeting the current O3

standards should address both the variability and uncertainty that generally underlie such an 

analysis. Uncertainty refers to the lack of knowledge regarding the actual values of model input 

variables (parameter uncertainty) and of physical systems or relationships (model uncertainty – 

e.g., the shapes of exposure-response and concentration-response functions). The goal of the 

analyst is to reduce uncertainty to the maximum extent possible. Uncertainty can be reduced by 

improved measurement and improved model formulation. In a health risk assessment, however, 

significant uncertainty often remains. 

Table 3-2. Urban Areas Used in the Controlled Human Studies-Portion of the O3 Risk Assessment and Their 

O3 Seasons 

Urban Area (CSA) O3 Season 

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville, GA-AL March 1 to Oct. 31 

Boston-Worcester-Manchester, MA-NH April 1 to Sept. 30 

Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI April 1 to Sept. 30 

Cleveland-Akron-Elyria, OH April 1 to Oct. 31 

Detroit-Warren-Flint, MI April 1 to Sept. 30 

Houston-Baytown-Huntsville, TX Jan. 1 to Dec. 30 

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA Jan. 1 to Dec. 30 

New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA April 1 to Sept. 30 

Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD April 1 to Oct. 31 

Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Truckee, CA-NV Jan. 1 to Dec. 30 

St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL April 1 to Oct. 31 

Washington-Baltimore-N. Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV April 1 to Oct. 31 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

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Table 3-3. Population Coverage of Modeled Areas 

Urban Area (CSA) Modeled 

population 

(thousands)

All school 

age children 

(thousands)

Active 

school age 

children 

(thousands) 

Asthmatic 

school age 

children 

(thousands)

Atlanta 4,548 942 519 100

Boston 5,714 1,098 529 200

Chicago 9,311 1,946 933 300

Cleveland 2,945 582 295 100

Detroit 5,357 1,110 553 200

Houston 4,815 1,076 598 100

Los Angeles 16,349 3,594 1,951 500

New York 21,357 4,084 2,009 600

Philadelphia 5,832 1,179 609 200

Sacramento 1,930 418 226 100

St. Louis 2,754 572 309 100

Washington, DC 7,572 1,473 759 200 

 

The degree of uncertainty can be characterized, sometimes quantitatively. For example, 

the statistical uncertainty surrounding the estimated O3 coefficients in the exposure-response 

functions is reflected in confidence or credible intervals provided for the risk estimates. 

 As described in Section 3.1.3 above, we used a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo 

approach to estimate exposure-response functions as well as to characterize uncertainty 

attributable to sampling error based on sample size considerations. Using this approach, we 

could derive the n

th percentile response value, for any n, for any O3 concentration, x, as described 

above (see Section 3.1.3). Because our exposure estimates were generated at the midpoints of 

0.01 ppm intervals (i.e., for 0.005 ppm, 0.015 ppm, etc.), we derived 2.5th percentile, 50th

percentile (median), and 97.5th percentile response estimates for O3 concentrations at these 

midpoint values. The 2.5th percentile and 97.5th percentile response estimates comprise the lower 

and upper bounds of the credible interval around each point estimate (median estimate) of 

response. The median curve, and the upper and lower bounds of the credible intervals are shown 

above, separately for each of the three response definitions, in Figures 3-3a, b, and c, 

respectively. 

 As noted above, the exposure-response functions shown in Figures 3-3a, b, and c above 

are based on the assumption that the relationship between exposure and response has a logistic 

form with 90 percent probability and a linear (hockeystick) form with 10 percent probability. If 

we had assumed different probabilities for the two alternative functional forms, the resulting 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

3-12

exposure-response curves, and the response probabilities associated with exposure to any given 

O3 concentration, would have been different. Alternative median exposure-response functions, 

with 95% credible intervals, based on an 80 percent logistic/20 percent linear split and a 50 

percent logistic/50 percent linear split are shown in Figures 3-4 and 3-5, respectively. The 

median exposure-response functions for all three alternative forms are shown for decrements in 

FEV1 >10% and >15% in Figures 3-6a and b, respectively. 

 We carried out sensitivity analyses to explore the impact of alternative input values for 

two sources of uncertainty that we did not characterize quantitatively. The first set of sensitivity 

analyses explore the impact of alternative assumptions about PRB levels in each of three of the 

locations included in the risk assessment – Atlanta, Los Angeles, and New York. The second set 

of sensitivity analyses explores the impact of different assumptions about the functional form of 

the exposure-response function. The results from both sets of sensitivity analyses are presented 

in Section 3.3 below. 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

3-13

Figure 3-4. Probabilistic Exposure-Response Relationships for FEV1 Decrement > 10%, > 15%, and > 20% for 

8-Hour Exposures Under Moderate Exertion: Comparison of 90% Logistic/10% Linear (Hockeystick) Split and 

80% Logistic/20% Linear (Hockeystick) Split in Assumed Relationship Between Exposure and Response* 

FEV1 Decrement > 10%: 90% Logistic/10% Linear 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

FEV1 Decrement > 10%: 80% Logistic/20% Linear 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

FEV1 Decrement > 15%: 90% Logistic/10% Linear 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

FEV1 Decrement > 15%: 80% Logistic/20% Linear 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

FEV1 Decrement > 20%: 90% Logistic/10% Linear 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

FEV1 Decrement > 20%: 80% Logistic/20% Linear 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

* Derived from Folinsbee et al., 1988; Horstman et al. 1990; McDonnell et al., 1991; Adams 2002, 2003, 2006. 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

3-14

Figure 3-5. Probabilistic Exposure-Response Relationships for FEV1 Decrement > 10%, > 15%, and > 20% for 

8-Hour Exposures Under Moderate Exertion: Comparison of 90% Logistic/10% Linear (Hockeystick) Split and 

50% Logistic/50% Linear (Hockeystick) Split in Assumed Relationship Between Exposure and Response* 

FEV1 Decrement > 10%: 90% Logistic/10% Linear 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

FEV1 Decrement > 10%: 50% Logistic/50% Linear 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

FEV1 Decrement > 15%: 90% Logistic/10% Linear 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

FEV1 Decrement > 15%: 50% Logistic/50% Linear 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

FEV1 Decrement > 20%: 90% Logistic/10% Linear 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

FEV1 Decrement > 20%: 50% Logistic/50% Linear 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Ozone Concentration (ppm)

Response Rate

* Derived from Folinsbee et al., 1988; Horstman et al. 1990; McDonnell et al., 1991; Adams 2002, 2003, 2006). 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

3-15

Figure 3-6. Median Exposure-Response Functions Using Three Different Combinations of Logistic and Linear 

(Hockeystick) Models 

 

Figure 3-6a. FEV1 Decrements > 10% 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14

Ozone Exposure (ppm)

Response Rate

90% logistic - 10% linear

80% logistic - 20% linear

50% logistic - 50% linear

 Figure 3-6b. FEV1 Decrements > 15% 

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14

Ozone Exposure (ppm)

Response Rate

90% logistic - 10% linear

80% logistic - 20% linear

50% logistic - 50% linear

 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

3-16

 In addition to uncertainties arising from sampling variability, other uncertainties 

associated with the use of the exposure-response relationships for lung function responses are 

briefly summarized below. Additional uncertainties with respect to the exposure inputs to the 

risk assessment are described in Chapter 4 of the Staff Paper and in the Exposure Assessment 

TSD (EPA 2006c). The main additional uncertainties with respect to the approach used to 

estimate exposure-response relationships include: 

• Length of exposure. The 8-hour moderate exertion risk estimates are based on a combined 

data set from six controlled human exposure studies conducted using 6.6-hr exposures. The 

use of these data to estimate responses associated with an 8-hour exposure seem reasonable, 

however, because lung function response appears to level off after exposure for 6 hours. It is 

unlikely that the exposure-response relationships would have been appreciably different had 

the studies been conducted over an 8-hour period. 

• Extrapolation of exposure-response relationships. It was necessary to estimate responses at 

O3 levels below the lowest exposure levels used in the controlled human studies (i.e., 0.04 

ppm). In both the prior review and the current assessment, the response has been 

extrapolated down to background levels. 

• Reproducibility of O3-induced responses. The risk assessment assumed that the O3-induced 

responses for individuals are reproducible. This assumption is supported by the evaluation in 

the O3 CD (see section AX6.4), which cites studies by McDonnell et al. (1985b) and 

Hazucha et al. (2003) as showing significant reproducibility of response. 

• Age and lung function response. As in the prior review, exposure-response relationships 

based on controlled human exposure studies involving 18-35 year old subjects were used in 

the risk assessment to estimate responses for school age children (ages 5-18). This approach 

is supported by the findings of McDonnell et al. (1985a) who reported that children 8-11 

years old experienced FEV1 responses similar to those observed in adults 18-35 years old 

when both groups were exposed to concentrations of 0.12 ppm at an EVR of 35 L/min/m2

. 

In addition, a number of summer camp studies of school age children exposed in outdoor 

environments in the Northeast also showed O3-induced lung function changes similar in 

magnitude to, and in some cases somewhat larger than, those observed in controlled human 

exposure studies. 

• Exposure history. The risk assessment assumed that the O3-induced response on any given 

day is independent of previous O3 exposures. As discussed in Chapter 3 of the Staff Paper 

and in the O3 CD, O3-induced responses can be enhanced or attenuated as a result of recent 

prior exposures. The possible impact of exposure history on the risk estimates is an 

additional source of uncertainty that is not quantified in this assessment. In addition, the 

Adams studies were conducted in southern California, where ozone levels are generally 

higher than those in Chapel Hill, NC, where the Folinsbee, Horstman, and McDonnell studies 

were conducted. However, the Adams studies were conducted when ozone levels were 

below the level of the current standard. 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

3-17

• Exposure-response relationship for all, active, and asthmatic school age children. The risk 

assessment used the same exposure-response relationship, developed from data on “healthy” 

subjects, for all, active, and asthmatic school age children. Based on evidence from 

epidemiological studies, it is likely that moderate to severe asthmatic children would 

experience greater lung function decrements than other children without these conditions. 

This would tend to lead to the lung function decrements presented in this assessment for 

asthmatic children being underestimated. One consideration working in the opposite 

direction is that the activity patterns used in the exposure analysis to estimate exposures for 

asthmatic children were not specific to asthmatic individuals. To the extent that asthmatic 

children, especially those with moderate to severe asthma, are less active or spend less time 

outdoors than other children of the same age, the estimates of their 8-hr exposures to O3

under moderate exertion may be overstated. This factor would tend to lead to overestimates 

of risks for lung function decrements in the asthmatic school age population. 

• Interaction between O3 and other pollutants. Because the controlled human exposure studies 

used in the risk assessment involved only O3 exposures, it was assumed that estimates of O3-

induced health responses would not be affected by the presence of other pollutants (e.g., SO2, 

PM2..5, etc). Some evidence exists that other pollutants may enhance the respiratory effects 

associated with exposure to O3, but the evidence is not consistent across studies. 

Variability refers to the heterogeneity in a population or parameter. Even if there is no 

uncertainty surrounding inputs to the analysis, there may still be variability. For example, there 

may be variability among exposure-response functions describing the relationship between O3

and lung function across urban areas. Similarly, there may be variability among C-R functions 

describing the relationship between O3 and mortality across urban areas. This variability does 

not imply uncertainty about the exposure-response or C-R function in any of the urban areas, but 

only that these functions are different in the different locations, reflecting differences in the 

populations and/or other factors that may affect the relationship between O3 and the associated 

health endpoint. In general, it is possible to have uncertainty but no variability (if, for instance, 

there is a single parameter whose value is uncertain) or variability but little or no uncertainty (for 

example, people’s heights vary considerably but can be accurately measured with little 

uncertainty). 

The current controlled human exposure studies portion of the risk assessment 

incorporates some of the variability in key inputs to the analysis by using location-specific inputs 

for the exposure analysis (e.g., location-specific population data, air exchange rates, air quality 

and temperature data). Although spatial variability in these key inputs across all U.S. locations 

has not been fully characterized, variability across the selected locations is imbedded in the 

analysis by using, to the extent possible, inputs specific to each urban area. Temporal variability 

is more difficult to address, because the risk assessment focuses on some unspecified time in the 

future. To minimize the degree to which values of inputs to the analysis may be different from 

the values of those inputs at that unspecified time, we have used relatively recent inputs – in 

particular, year 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality data for the urban locations, and the most recent 

available population data (from the 2000 Census). However, future changes in inputs have not 

been predicted (e.g., future population levels). 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006

 

3-18

3.2 Results 

 Section 3.2.1 presents the results of the assessment of lung function decrement associated 

with exposure to “as is” O3 concentrations (representing levels measured in 2004, 2003, and 

2002 for all of the assessment locations) over PRB levels, based on controlled human exposure 

studies. The corresponding results when O3 concentrations just meet the current and alternative 

8-hour daily maximum standards are presented in Section 3.2.2. Section 3.2.2.1 focuses on the 

current standard and a set of seven alternative standards, based on adjusting 2004 and 2002 air 

quality data. Section 3.2.2.2 focuses on the current standard and a (different) set of five 

alternative standards, based on adjusting 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality data for a subset of 

five locations. Results for “as is” O3 concentrations for each of the three years are also included 

in the tables of results in Section 3.2.2.2. While all three lung function response measures were 

developed and included in the risk assessment, based on CASAC advice and EPA staff 

recommendations, the focus of the results discussed in this section is primarily on decrements in 

FEV1 >15% for all and active school age children and on decrements in FEV1 >10% for 

asthmatic school age children as an indicator of adverse lung function effects. 

 All estimated numbers (of children and of occurrences) were rounded to the nearest 1000, 

and all percentages were rounded to one decimal place. These rounding conventions are not 

intended to imply confidence in that level of precision, but rather to avoid the confusion that can 

result when a greater amount of rounding is used. 

3.2.1 Assessment of lung function decrement associated with exposure to “as is” O3

concentrations in excess of policy relevant background levels 

3.2.1.1 Results for all school age children 

The estimated number and percent of occurrences of lung function decrement associated 

with exposure to “as is” O3 concentrations over PRB concentrations among all school age 

children (ages 5 – 18) engaged in moderate exercise for at least one 8-hour period during the O3

season in 2004 is given in Table 3-4; the corresponding table for 2002 is Table 3-5. The 

numbers and percents of these children estimated to experience at least one lung function 

decrement associated with exposure to “as is” O3 concentrations over PRB concentrations is 

given in Tables 3-6 and 3-7, for 2004 and 2002, respectively. The corresponding results for 

active children are given in Appendix C. Results for all three measures of lung function 

decrement being considered in this analysis – decrements in FEV1 >10%, >15%, and >20% -- are 

shown in each table. 

The estimated number and percent of occurrences of lung function decrement, defined as 

decrements in FEV1 of >15%, associated with exposure to “as is” O3 concentrations over PRB 

concentrations among all school age children (ages 5 – 18) engaged in moderate exercise for at 

least one 8-hour period during the O3 season is given in Table 3-8 for 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3

concentrations. The number and percent of these children estimated to experience at least one 

decrement in FEV1 >15% associated with exposure to “as is” O3 concentrations over PRB 

concentrations is given, for 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 concentrations, in Table 3-9. 
Table 3-4. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3

Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3 Concentrations*

Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent

800 1% 191 0.2% 27 0%

(281 - 1430) (0.3% - 1.7%) (29 - 456) (0% - 0.6%) (4 - 117) (0% - 0.1%)

547 0.8% 125 0.2% 16 0%

(165 - 1002) (0.2% - 1.4%) (16 - 315) (0% - 0.5%) (2 - 77) (0% - 0.1%)

795 0.6% 167 0.1% 17 0%

(188 - 1485) (0.2% - 1.2%) (6 - 460) (0% - 0.4%) (0 - 106) (0% - 0.1%)

312 0.7% 69 0.2% 8 0%

(89 - 575) (0.2% - 1.3%) (6 - 179) (0% - 0.4%) (0 - 43) (0% - 0.1%)

512 0.7% 111 0.2% 12 0%

(136 - 953) (0.2% - 1.4%) (8 - 296) (0% - 0.4%) (0 - 69) (0% - 0.1%)

827 0.6% 230 0.2% 45 0%

(387 - 1361) (0.3% - 1%) (63 - 465) (0% - 0.3%) (12 - 140) (0% - 0.1%)

5432 1.1% 1470 0.3% 273 0.1%

(2471 - 9181) (0.5% - 1.9%) (393 - 3073) (0.1% - 0.6%) (62 - 892) (0% - 0.2%)

2418 0.9% 563 0.2% 76 0%

(795 - 4360) (0.3% - 1.6%) (77 - 1383) (0% - 0.5%) (8 - 347) (0% - 0.1%)

901 1% 218 0.3% 31 0%

(338 - 1588) (0.4% - 1.8%) (35 - 509) (0% - 0.6%) (3 - 132) (0% - 0.2%)

366 0.7% 86 0.2% 11 0%

(135 - 647) (0.3% - 1.3%) (11 - 206) (0% - 0.4%) (1 - 52) (0% - 0.1%)

317 0.7% 69 0.2% 8 0%

(92 - 579) (0.2% - 1.3%) (4 - 181) (0% - 0.4%) (0 - 43) (0% - 0.1%)

1091 1% 268 0.2% 41 0%

(404 - 1928) (0.4% - 1.7%) (50 - 622) (0% - 0.6%) (7 - 165) (0% - 0.1%)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to:

10% 15% 20%

Cleveland

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Abt Associates Inc. 3-19 December 2006
Table 3-5. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3

Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3 Concentrations*

Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent

1043 1.3% 290 0.4% 57 0.1%

(489 - 1754) (0.6% - 2.1%) (88 - 593) (0.1% - 0.7%) (14 - 176) (0% - 0.2%)

1046 1.5% 311 0.4% 74 0.1%

(502 - 1737) (0.7% - 2.5%) (115 - 611) (0.2% - 0.9%) (27 - 197) (0% - 0.3%)

1777 1.4% 511 0.4% 106 0.1%

(862 - 2954) (0.7% - 2.4%) (171 - 1015) (0.1% - 0.8%) (29 - 310) (0% - 0.3%)

814 1.9% 259 0.6% 65 0.2%

(441 - 1304) (1% - 3%) (110 - 473) (0.3% - 1.1%) (24 - 161) (0.1% - 0.4%)

1135 1.6% 333 0.5% 71 0.1%

(569 - 1875) (0.8% - 2.7%) (119 - 649) (0.2% - 0.9%) (20 - 201) (0% - 0.3%)

742 0.5% 209 0.2% 42 0%

(349 - 1215) (0.3% - 0.9%) (62 - 419) (0% - 0.3%) (12 - 128) (0% - 0.1%)

4625 1% 1265 0.3% 249 0.1%

(2054 - 7815) (0.4% - 1.6%) (355 - 2642) (0.1% - 0.6%) (69 - 781) (0% - 0.2%)

4995 1.9% 1522 0.6% 361 0.1%

(2588 - 8140) (1% - 3.1%) (585 - 2885) (0.2% - 1.1%) (123 - 945) (0% - 0.4%)

1788 2.1% 570 0.7% 146 0.2%

(984 - 2848) (1.1% - 3.3%) (239 - 1037) (0.3% - 1.2%) (54 - 358) (0.1% - 0.4%)

538 1.1% 145 0.3% 27 0.1%

(245 - 912) (0.5% - 1.8%) (39 - 305) (0.1% - 0.6%) (6 - 88) (0% - 0.2%)

623 1.5% 183 0.4% 40 0.1%

(311 - 1023) (0.7% - 2.4%) (65 - 356) (0.2% - 0.8%) (12 - 112) (0% - 0.3%)

1882 1.7% 565 0.5% 132 0.1%

(959 - 3085) (0.9% - 2.8%) (209 - 1086) (0.2% - 1%) (45 - 352) (0% - 0.3%)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to:

10% 15% 20%

Cleveland

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Abt Associates Inc. 3-20 December 2006
Table 3-6. Number and Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One

Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3 Concentrations*

Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent

89 9.4% 34 3.6% 10 1%

(66 - 128) (7.1% - 13.6%) (19 - 51) (2% - 5.4%) (3 - 20) (0.4% - 2.1%)

76 6.9% 26 2.4% 6 0.6%

(53 - 114) (4.9% - 10.4%) (12 - 42) (1.1% - 3.8%) (2 - 15) (0.1% - 1.4%)

93 4.8% 27 1.4% 4 0.2%

(59 - 150) (3% - 7.7%) (6 - 49) (0.3% - 2.5%) (0 - 15) (0% - 0.8%)

37 6.2% 12 2% 2 0.4%

(25 - 57) (4.2% - 9.6%) (5 - 20) (0.8% - 3.3%) (0 - 7) (0.1% - 1.1%)

65 5.8% 20 1.8% 4 0.3%

(43 - 102) (3.9% - 9.2%) (7 - 35) (0.6% - 3.1%) (0 - 11) (0% - 1%)

129 11.9% 57 5.2% 20 1.9%

(102 - 173) (9.4% - 15.9%) (37 - 79) (3.4% - 7.3%) (10 - 37) (0.9% - 3.4%)

483 13.2% 220 6% 81 2.2%

(402 - 631) (11% - 17.2%) (149 - 298) (4.1% - 8.1%) (39 - 143) (1.1% - 3.9%)

316 7.6% 112 2.7% 28 0.7%

(227 - 469) (5.5% - 11.3%) (55 - 176) (1.3% - 4.2%) (8 - 64) (0.2% - 1.6%)

105 8.8% 38 3.2% 10 0.8%

(77 - 153) (6.5% - 12.9%) (21 - 59) (1.8% - 4.9%) (3 - 22) (0.2% - 1.8%)

31 7.5% 11 2.7% 3 0.7%

(25 - 45) (6% - 11%) (6 - 17) (1.4% - 4.1%) (1 - 6) (0.1% - 1.5%)

34 5.8% 10 1.8% 2 0.3%

(23 - 54) (3.9% - 9.3%) (3 - 18) (0.6% - 3.1%) (0 - 6) (0% - 1%)

144 9.7% 57 3.8% 17 1.1%

(109 - 204) (7.3% - 13.8%) (33 - 84) (2.2% - 5.6%) (6 - 34) (0.4% - 2.3%)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Cleveland

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to:

10% 15% 20%

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Abt Associates Inc. 3-21 December 2006
Table 3-7. Number and Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One

Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3 Concentrations*

Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent

132 14% 59 6.3% 21 2.3%

(105 - 173) (11.2% - 18.3%) (40 - 81) (4.2% - 8.6%) (10 - 38) (1.1% - 4.1%)

172 15.7% 84 7.6% 35 3.2%

(140 - 219) (12.7% - 19.9%) (58 - 112) (5.3% - 10.3%) (20 - 59) (1.8% - 5.4%)

275 14.1% 123 6.3% 44 2.3%

(220 - 359) (11.3% - 18.4%) (83 - 169) (4.2% - 8.7%) (21 - 79) (1.1% - 4%)

112 18.9% 56 9.4% 24 4%

(93 - 138) (15.6% - 23.2%) (40 - 74) (6.7% - 12.4%) (13 - 40) (2.2% - 6.7%)

167 15.1% 76 6.8% 27 2.5%

(135 - 215) (12.1% - 19.4%) (51 - 103) (4.6% - 9.3%) (13 - 48) (1.2% - 4.4%)

131 12% 58 5.3% 21 1.9%

(104 - 175) (9.5% - 16%) (38 - 80) (3.5% - 7.4%) (10 - 38) (0.9% - 3.5%)

472 12.9% 220 6% 86 2.3%

(394 - 612) (10.7% - 16.7%) (150 - 297) (4.1% - 8.1%) (44 - 149) (1.2% - 4.1%)

712 17.2% 346 8.3% 144 3.5%

(582 - 895) (14% - 21.6%) (244 - 462) (5.9% - 11.2%) (79 - 242) (1.9% - 5.8%)

231 19.5% 118 9.9% 53 4.4%

(192 - 283) (16.2% - 23.9%) (85 - 155) (7.2% - 13.1%) (31 - 87) (2.6% - 7.3%)

53 12.8% 24 5.8% 9 2.1%

(44 - 69) (10.7% - 16.6%) (16 - 32) (3.9% - 7.9%) (4 - 15) (1% - 3.8%)

89 15.3% 41 7.1% 16 2.7%

(72 - 113) (12.4% - 19.5%) (28 - 56) (4.8% - 9.6%) (8 - 27) (1.4% - 4.7%)

255 17.2% 125 8.4% 52 3.5%

(209 - 321) (14.1% - 21.6%) (88 - 167) (5.9% - 11.2%) (29 - 88) (2% - 5.9%)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Cleveland

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to:

10% 15% 20%

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Abt Associates Inc. 3-22 December 2006
Table 3-8. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to

"As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004*

Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent

290 0.4% 186 0.2% 191 0.2%

(88 - 593) (0.1% - 0.7%) (32 - 431) (0% - 0.5%) (29 - 456) (0% - 0.6%)

311 0.4% 149 0.2% 125 0.2%

(115 - 611) (0.2% - 0.9%) (24 - 364) (0% - 0.5%) (16 - 315) (0% - 0.5%)

511 0.4% 265 0.2% 167 0.1%

(171 - 1015) (0.1% - 0.8%) (36 - 640) (0% - 0.5%) (6 - 460) (0% - 0.4%)

259 0.6% 116 0.3% 69 0.2%

(110 - 473) (0.3% - 1.1%) (27 - 262) (0.1% - 0.6%) (6 - 179) (0% - 0.4%)

333 0.5% 226 0.3% 111 0.2%

(119 - 649) (0.2% - 0.9%) (65 - 481) (0.1% - 0.7%) (8 - 296) (0% - 0.4%)

209 0.2% 291 0.2% 230 0.2%

(62 - 419) (0% - 0.3%) (96 - 567) (0.1% - 0.4%) (63 - 465) (0% - 0.3%)

1265 0.3% 1700 0.4% 1470 0.3%

(355 - 2642) (0.1% - 0.6%) (610 - 3277) (0.1% - 0.7%) (393 - 3073) (0.1% - 0.6%)

1522 0.6% 834 0.3% 563 0.2%

(585 - 2885) (0.2% - 1.1%) (237 - 1769) (0.1% - 0.7%) (77 - 1383) (0% - 0.5%)

570 0.7% 281 0.3% 218 0.3%

(239 - 1037) (0.3% - 1.2%) (77 - 594) (0.1% - 0.7%) (35 - 509) (0% - 0.6%)

145 0.3% 121 0.2% 86 0.2%

(39 - 305) (0.1% - 0.6%) (26 - 265) (0.1% - 0.5%) (11 - 206) (0% - 0.4%)

183 0.4% 120 0.3% 69 0.2%

(65 - 356) (0.2% - 0.8%) (26 - 266) (0.1% - 0.6%) (4 - 181) (0% - 0.4%)

565 0.5% 253 0.2% 268 0.2%

(209 - 1086) (0.2% - 1%) (60 - 568) (0.1% - 0.5%) (50 - 622) (0% - 0.6%)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

2002 Data 2003 Data 2004 Data

Cleveland

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Abt Associates Inc. 3-23 December 2006
Table 3-9. Number and Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One

Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3

Concentrations, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004*

Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent

59 6.3% 34 3.6% 34 3.6%

(40 - 81) (4.2% - 8.6%) (20 - 51) (2.1% - 5.4%) (19 - 51) (2% - 5.4%)

84 7.6% 33 3% 26 2.4%

(58 - 112) (5.3% - 10.3%) (17 - 51) (1.6% - 4.6%) (12 - 42) (1.1% - 3.8%)

123 6.3% 52 2.6% 27 1.4%

(83 - 169) (4.2% - 8.7%) (25 - 81) (1.3% - 4.2%) (6 - 49) (0.3% - 2.5%)

56 9.4% 28 4.7% 12 2%

(40 - 74) (6.7% - 12.4%) (18 - 40) (3% - 6.7%) (5 - 20) (0.8% - 3.3%)

76 6.8% 62 5.5% 20 1.8%

(51 - 103) (4.6% - 9.3%) (40 - 86) (3.6% - 7.7%) (7 - 35) (0.6% - 3.1%)

58 5.3% 72 6.6% 57 5.2%

(38 - 80) (3.5% - 7.4%) (49 - 98) (4.5% - 9%) (37 - 79) (3.4% - 7.3%)

220 6% 309 8.4% 220 6%

(150 - 297) (4.1% - 8.1%) (221 - 406) (6% - 11.1%) (149 - 298) (4.1% - 8.1%)

346 8.3% 223 5.4% 112 2.7%

(244 - 462) (5.9% - 11.2%) (145 - 312) (3.5% - 7.5%) (55 - 176) (1.3% - 4.2%)

118 9.9% 68 5.7% 38 3.2%

(85 - 155) (7.2% - 13.1%) (45 - 94) (3.8% - 8%) (21 - 59) (1.8% - 4.9%)

24 5.8% 19 4.5% 11 2.7%

(16 - 32) (3.9% - 7.9%) (12 - 26) (2.9% - 6.3%) (6 - 17) (1.4% - 4.1%)

41 7.1% 26 4.4% 10 1.8%

(28 - 56) (4.8% - 9.6%) (16 - 37) (2.7% - 6.3%) (3 - 18) (0.6% - 3.1%)

125 8.4% 69 4.7% 57 3.8%

(88 - 167) (5.9% - 11.2%) (44 - 99) (2.9% - 6.6%) (33 - 84) (2.2% - 5.6%)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

2002 Data 2003 Data 2004 Data

Detroit

Cleveland

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Abt Associates Inc. 3-24 December 2006
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-25 

The estimated occurrence of lung function decrement among all school age children 

exercising moderately while exposed to “as is” O3 concentrations (Tables 3-4 and 3-5) varied 

across the locations in each year for each of the three lung function response measures 

(decrements in FEV1 ≥ 10%, ≥ 15%, and ≥ 20%). For all three lung function response measures, 

there was a greater occurrence of lung function decrement in 2002 than in 2004 in all locations 

except Los Angeles and Houston. In 2004, Los Angeles had the greatest percentage of childdays with occurrences of lung function response for all three response definitions (decrements in 

FEV1 ≥ 10%, ≥ 15%, and ≥ 20%). Not surprisingly, absolute numbers of occurrences of lung 

function decrement were also largest in Los Angeles. They were smallest in Cleveland and St. 

Louis for all three definitions of lung function response (at about 312,000 and 317,000, 

respectively, for decrements in FEV1 ≥ 10%; about 69,000 for decrements in FEV1 ≥ 15%; and 

about 8,000 for decrements in FEV1 ≥ 20%). In 2002, New York had the greatest absolute 

numbers of occurrences of lung function response for all three definitions of response (at about 

5.0 million for decrements in FEV1 ≥ 10%, 1.5 million for decrements in FEV1 ≥ 15%, and about 

361,000 for decrements in FEV1 ≥ 20%). For all three lung function response measures 

Sacramento had the smallest numbers of occurrence (at about 538,000; 145,000; and 27,000 

occurrences for the three lung function response definitions, respectively). However, 

Philadelphia had the greatest percentages of child-days with occurrences of lung function 

response defined as decrements in FEV1 ≥ 10% and ≥ 15%, at 2.1% and 0.7%, respectively. The 

percentages of child-days with occurrences of decrements in FEV1 ≥ 20% rounded to 0.1% in 

most locations. 

The patterns were similar for occurrences of lung function decrement among active 

school age children (Tables C-1 and C-2). Once again, for all three lung function response 

measures, there was a greater occurrence of lung function decrement in 2002 than in 2004 in all 

locations except Los Angeles and Houston. In 2004, the percentage of child-days (for active 

children) on which decrements of FEV1 ≥ 10% were estimated to occur ranged from 0.6% in 

Houston to 1.3% in Los Angeles. The corresponding percentages for decrements of FEV1 ≥ 15% 

rounded to 0.2% in most locations (except Chicago, where it was 0.1%, and Los Angeles and 

Philadelphia, where it was 0.3%). For decrements of FEV1 ≥ 20%, the percentages rounded to 

0.0% in all locations except Los Angeles, where it rounded to 0.1%. The absolute numbers of 

occurrences were greatest in Los Angeles for all three lung function response measures. In 2002, 

the percentage of child-days (for active children) on which decrements of FEV1 ≥ 10% were 

estimated to occur ranged from 0.6% in Houston to 2.1% in Philadelphia; the corresponding 

percentages for decrements of FEV1 ≥ 15% ranged from 0.2% in Houston to 0.7% in 

Philadelphia; and for decrements of FEV1 ≥ 20%, the percentages rounded to 0.1% in most 

locations. 

When we considered the number of children experiencing at least one lung function 

response during the O3 season (Tables 3-6 and C-3 for 2004, and Tables 3-7 and C-4 for 2002), 

the patterns were similar to those observed when occurrence of lung function responses was 

estimated. In 2004, among all school age children and among active school age children, the 

percentages experiencing at least one lung function response were largest in Los Angeles and 

smallest in Chicago – for each of the three lung function response measures. For example, 6.0% 

of all school age children and 6.4% of active school age children in Los Angeles experienced at 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-26 

least one decrement in FEV1 ≥ 15% during the O3 season. The corresponding percentages for 

Chicago were 1.4% and 1.4% for all school age and active school age children, respectively. In 

2002, among all school age children and among active school age children, the percentages 

experiencing at least one lung function response were largest in Philadelphia and smallest in 

Houston – for each of the three lung function response measures. For example, 9.9% of all 

school age children and 10.3% of active school age children in Philadelphia experienced at least 

one decrement in FEV1 ≥ 15% during the ozone season. The corresponding percentages for 

Houston for all school age and active school age children were 5.3% and 5.3%, respectively. 

The patterns of numbers of occurrences of lung function response defined as decrements 

in FEV1 ≥ 15% across all three years (2002, 2003, and 2004) shown in Table 3-8 are similar in 

most locations. In all locations except Houston and Los Angeles, the number of occurrences is 

greatest in 2002, and the number of occurrences in 2003 either falls between those of 2004 and 

2002 or is slightly lower than in 2004. In Houston and Los Angeles the numbers of occurrences 

are lowest in 2002 and highest in 2003. The patterns for the numbers of children with at least 

one decrement in FEV1 ≥ 15%, shown in Table 3-9, are similar. In all locations except Houston 

and Los Angeles, the number of children with at least one occurrence decreases from 2002 to 

2003 to 2004 (in Atlanta, the number is the same in 2003 and 2004). In Houston and Los 

Angeles the numbers of occurrences are highest in 2003 and the same or almost the same in 2002 

and 2004. 

3.2.1.2 Results for asthmatic school age children 

The estimated number and percent of occurrences of lung function response, defined as a 

change in FEV1 ≥ 10%, associated with exposure to “as is” O3 concentrations above PRB 

concentrations among asthmatic school age children (ages 5 – 18) engaged in moderate exercise 

for at least one 8-hour period during the O3 season, is given in Table 3-10, for 2002, 2003, and 

2004 O3 concentrations. The number and percent of these children estimated to experience at 

least one decrement in FEV1 of >10% associated with exposure to “as is” O3 concentrations over 

PRB concentrations is given, for 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 concentrations, in Table 3-11. 

The numbers of occurrences of lung function response, defined as decrements in FEV1 ≥

10%, among asthmatic children follow the same patterns across the three years (2002, 2003, and 

2004) as for all children (see Table 3-8). In all locations except Houston and Los Angeles, the 

number of occurrences is greatest in 2002, and the number of occurrences in 2003 either falls 

between those of 2004 and 2002 or is slightly lower than in 2004. In Houston and Los Angeles 

the numbers of occurrences are lowest in 2002 and highest in 2003. Similarly, the numbers of 

asthmatic children with at least one lung function response, defined as a change in FEV1 ≥ 10%, 

follow the same patterns across the three years as for all children, for changes in FEV1 ≥ 15% 

(see Table 3-9). In all locations except Houston and Los Angeles, the number of asthmatic 

children with at least one occurrence decreases from 2002 to 2003 to 2004 (in Atlanta, the 

number is the same in 2003 and 2004). In Houston and Los Angeles the numbers of occurrences 

are highest in 2003 and the same or almost the same in 2002 and 2004. 
Table 3-10. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to

"As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004*

Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent

145 1.3% 106 1% 109 1%

(68 - 244) (0.6% - 2.2%) (40 - 187) (0.4% - 1.7%) (38 - 196) (0.3% - 1.8%)

186 1.5% 111 0.9% 96 0.8%

(90 - 308) (0.7% - 2.5%) (37 - 201) (0.3% - 1.7%) (29 - 176) (0.2% - 1.5%)

257 1.5% 163 0.9% 114 0.7%

(125 - 427) (0.7% - 2.4%) (56 - 291) (0.3% - 1.6%) (27 - 214) (0.2% - 1.2%)

115 1.9% 64 1.1% 44 0.7%

(62 - 184) (1% - 3.1%) (24 - 112) (0.4% - 1.9%) (13 - 82) (0.2% - 1.4%)

159 1.6% 118 1.2% 73 0.8%

(79 - 262) (0.8% - 2.7%) (50 - 202) (0.5% - 2.1%) (20 - 135) (0.2% - 1.4%)

96 0.5% 131 0.7% 110 0.6%

(45 - 158) (0.3% - 0.9%) (64 - 213) (0.4% - 1.2%) (51 - 181) (0.3% - 1%)

561 1% 690 1.2% 660 1.2%

(255 - 942) (0.5% - 1.7%) (352 - 1119) (0.6% - 2%) (308 - 1108) (0.6% - 2%)

834 1.9% 506 1.2% 399 0.9%

(435 - 1356) (1% - 3.1%) (215 - 868) (0.5% - 2%) (131 - 720) (0.3% - 1.7%)

325 2.1% 188 1.2% 165 1.1%

(180 - 516) (1.2% - 3.4%) (82 - 320) (0.5% - 2.1%) (63 - 289) (0.4% - 1.9%)

69 1.1% 60 1% 45 0.7%

(32 - 116) (0.5% - 1.9%) (26 - 103) (0.4% - 1.6%) (16 - 80) (0.3% - 1.3%)

86 1.5% 64 1.1% 44 0.8%

(43 - 141) (0.7% - 2.4%) (26 - 112) (0.5% - 1.9%) (13 - 80) (0.2% - 1.4%)

261 1.7% 137 0.9% 153 1%

(133 - 428) (0.9% - 2.8%) (52 - 240) (0.3% - 1.6%) (57 - 270) (0.4% - 1.8%)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

2002 Data 2003 Data 2004 Data

Cleveland

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Abt Associates Inc. 3-27 December 2006
Table 3-11. Number and Percent of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One

Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3

Concentrations, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2004*

Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent

18 15.2% 12 10.1% 12 9.9%

(14 - 23) (12.2% - 19.8%) (9 - 17) (7.6% - 14.5%) (9 - 17) (7.4% - 14.2%)

30 16.4% 15 8.4% 13 7.2%

(24 - 38) (13.3% - 20.7%) (11 - 22) (6.1% - 12.2%) (9 - 20) (5.1% - 10.8%)

40 14.5% 21 7.6% 14 4.9%

(32 - 53) (11.6% - 18.9%) (15 - 32) (5.5% - 11.5%) (9 - 22) (3.1% - 7.8%)

17 18.7% 9 10.6% 5 6.2%

(14 - 20) (15.4% - 23.1%) (7 - 13) (8.1% - 14.5%) (4 - 8) (4.2% - 9.6%)

24 14.9% 20 12.3% 10 5.9%

(19 - 31) (11.9% - 19.2%) (16 - 27) (9.6% - 16.4%) (6 - 15) (4% - 9.3%)

17 12.5% 20 15.1% 17 12.6%

(13 - 23) (9.9% - 16.7%) (17 - 26) (12.3% - 19.5%) (14 - 23) (10% - 16.8%)

61 13.3% 77 16.8% 62 13.6%

(51 - 79) (11.1% - 17.2%) (65 - 95) (14.3% - 20.9%) (52 - 81) (11.4% - 17.7%)

118 18.3% 81 12.7% 51 8%

(97 - 147) (15.1% - 22.9%) (64 - 109) (10% - 17%) (37 - 76) (5.8% - 11.8%)

40 20.8% 27 13.8% 18 9.5%

(33 - 49) (17.3% - 25.3%) (21 - 35) (11% - 18.2%) (14 - 27) (7.1% - 13.8%)

7 13% 6 11% 4 7.5%

(6 - 9) (10.9% - 16.9%) (5 - 8) (9.2% - 14.9%) (3 - 6) (5.9% - 11%)

12 15% 9 10.6% 5 5.9%

(10 - 16) (12.1% - 19.3%) (7 - 12) (8.1% - 14.8%) (3 - 8) (3.9% - 9.4%)

34 18.2% 21 11.2% 19 10.5%

(28 - 42) (15% - 22.7%) (16 - 28) (8.6% - 15.2%) (15 - 27) (7.9% - 14.7%)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

2002 Data 2003 Data 2004 Data

Detroit

Cleveland

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Abt Associates Inc. 3-28 December 2006
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-29 

3.2.2 Assessment of lung function decrement associated with exposure to O3

concentrations that just meet the current and alternative daily maximum 8-hour 

standards 

In this section, we present results for two sets of 8-hr average O3 standards. An 8-hr 

average standard, denoted m/n, is characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily 

maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 – 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-

hr average. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th daily maximum standards, denoted m/n, for n = 3, 4, and 5, 

require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the 

specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm). 

3.2.2.1 Results for all locations for the current standard and the original set of seven 

alternative standards, based on 2002 and 2004 air quality data 

The estimated number of occurrences of lung function response associated with exposure to 

O3 concentrations that just meet the current and alternative daily maximum 8-hour standards 

among all school age children (ages 5 – 18) engaged in moderate exercise for at least one 8-hour 

period during the O3 season, is given in Table 3-12, for estimates based on 2004 O3

concentrations, and Table 3-13, for estimates based on 2002 O3 concentrations. The 

corresponding estimated percents of occurrences are given in Tables 3-14 and 3-15, for estimates 

based on 2004 and 2002 O3 concentrations, respectively. The numbers of these children 

estimated to experience at least one lung function response associated with exposure to O3

concentrations that just meet the current and alternative standards are given in Tables 3-16 and 3-

17, for estimates based on 2004 and 2002 O3 concentrations, respectively. The corresponding 

estimated percents of children are given in Tables 3-18 and 3-19. The corresponding results for 

active school age children are given in Tables C-5 through C-12 in Appendix C. Results for all 

three measures of lung function response being considered in this analysis – decrements in FEV1

of >10%, >15%, and >20% -- are shown in each table. 

The percent reductions in numbers of occurrences and in numbers of school age children 

experiencing at least one occurrence of lung function response when O3 concentrations are 

reduced from those just meeting the current standard to those that would just meet each 

alternative standard are summarized for all school age children in Figures 3-7 through 3-10 

below. Percent reductions are calculated as the number (e.g., of occurrences) at the current 

standard minus the number at the alternative standard divided by the number at the current 

standard, so that a decrease in number results in a positive percent. Each figure also shows the 

percent reduction when O3 concentrations are changed from those just meeting the current 

standard to “as is” concentrations in the relevant year of air quality (e.g., when O3 concentrations 

just meeting the current and alternative standards were based on adjusting 2004 O3

concentrations, 2004 “as is” O3 concentrations were used). Because these “as is” O3

concentrations are higher than the O3 concentrations just meeting the current standard, these 

percent reductions are negative. Figure 3-7 shows the percent reductions in the aggregate 

numbers (across all locations) of occurrences of lung function response, for each of the three 

definitions of response, based on 2004 data (Figure 3-7a) and 2002 data (Figure 3-7b). Figure 3-
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-30 

8 shows the percent reductions of occurrences of decrement in FEV1 >15%, separately for each 

location, based on 2004 data (Figure 3-8a) and 2002 data (Figure 3-8b). Figure 3-9 shows the 

percent reductions in the aggregate numbers (across all locations) of all children experiencing at 

least one occurrence of lung function response, for each of the three definitions of response, 

based on 2004 data (Figure 3-9a) and 2002 data (Figure 3-9b). Finally, Figure 3-10 shows the 

percent reductions of numbers of all children experiencing at least one occurrence of decrement 

in FEV1 >15%, separately for each location, based on 2004 data (Figure 3-10a) and 2002 data 

(Figure 3-10b). The corresponding figures for active school age children (ages 5-18) are given in 

Appendix C. 
Table 3-12. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet

the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

598 587 532 472 444 439 390 318

(166 - 1102) (160 - 1084) (131 - 994) (102 - 892) (89 - 844) (87 - 836) (66 - 752) (40 - 626)

408 368 363 347 302 279 266 216

(94 - 773) (75 - 704) (72 - 696) (65 - 670) (46 - 591) (38 - 550) (33 - 527) (17 - 437)

555 517 487 437 395 370 337 261

(86 - 1071) (72 - 1004) (62 - 952) (46 - 862) (34 - 787) (28 - 741) (20 - 680) (7 - 537)

212 195 189 162 155 145 136 109

(41 - 407) (33 - 377) (31 - 365) (21 - 318) (19 - 306) (15 - 288) (13 - 271) (6 - 221)

386 353 343 331 285 263 249 200

(77 - 739) (62 - 681) (58 - 665) (53 - 644) (36 - 563) (29 - 523) (25 - 498) (12 - 408)

457 411 393 319 305 273 245 137

(170 - 775) (145 - 698) (136 - 669) (100 - 541) (93 - 518) (80 - 462) (70 - 412) (38 - 209)

1802 1721 1566 1156 1106 1012 793 375

(381 - 3361) (349 - 3220) (292 - 2947) (173 - 2198) (161 - 2106) (140 - 1929) (94 - 1514) (31 - 694)

1452 1374 1293 1054 1081 1035 953 747

(280 - 2771) (244 - 2639) (210 - 2498) (118 - 2081) (128 - 2129) (112 - 2046) (87 - 1901) (38 - 1523)

602 556 535 456 443 415 387 314

(162 - 1107) (138 - 1031) (127 - 995) (89 - 861) (83 - 839) (71 - 790) (59 - 743) (33 - 613)

198 186 171 143 135 128 112 79

(48 - 367) (43 - 345) (37 - 320) (26 - 270) (23 - 256) (21 - 243) (16 - 216) (8 - 155)

257 237 225 191 182 169 156 121

(63 - 478) (53 - 443) (48 - 423) (33 - 363) (30 - 348) (25 - 325) (21 - 302) (10 - 240)

750 671 665 587 551 501 484 390

(205 - 1386) (163 - 1256) (160 - 1246) (122 - 1114) (106 - 1052) (84 - 966) (77 - 936) (43 - 771)

131 128 113 98 91 90 78 62

(10 - 344) (9 - 338) (6 - 308) (3 - 275) (2 - 260) (2 - 257) (1 - 230) (0 - 191)

86 76 74 70 59 54 51 40

(5 - 238) (3 - 216) (2 - 213) (2 - 205) (1 - 180) (0 - 167) (0 - 160) (0 - 131)

110 102 95 84 75 70 63 48

(1 - 328) (0 - 307) (0 - 291) (0 - 262) (0 - 239) (0 - 224) (0 - 205) (0 - 161)

43 39 37 31 30 28 26 20

(1 - 125) (0 - 115) (0 - 112) (0 - 97) (0 - 93) (0 - 87) (0 - 82) (0 - 66)

79 71 68 66 55 50 47 37

(2 - 227) (1 - 208) (1 - 203) (1 - 196) (0 - 171) (0 - 158) (0 - 150) (0 - 122)

110 97 92 73 69 61 55 32

(13 - 253) (9 - 227) (7 - 217) (4 - 176) (3 - 168) (2 - 151) (1 - 135) (0 - 73)

371 353 317 230 220 201 156 75

(6 - 1044) (5 - 999) (3 - 913) (1 - 680) (1 - 651) (0 - 597) (0 - 469) (0 - 220)

Houston

Los Angeles

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

Atlanta

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Cleveland

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Abt Associates Inc. 3-31 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** Location

296 277 258 203 209 199 181 139

(7 - 851) (5 - 809) (3 - 765) (0 - 633) (0 - 648) (0 - 622) (0 - 576) (0 - 458)

130 118 112 93 90 83 77 61

(6 - 345) (4 - 320) (3 - 308) (1 - 266) (1 - 259) (0 - 243) (0 - 228) (0 - 188)

41 38 35 29 27 25 22 15

(1 - 114) (0 - 107) (0 - 99) (0 - 83) (0 - 79) (0 - 75) (0 - 66) (0 - 48)

54 49 46 38 36 33 30 23

(1 - 148) (1 - 137) (0 - 131) (0 - 112) (0 - 107) (0 - 100) (0 - 93) (0 - 73)

164 142 141 121 112 100 96 75

(12 - 432) (7 - 389) (6 - 386) (3 - 343) (2 - 323) (1 - 296) (1 - 286) (0 - 234)

15 15 12 9 9 8 7 5

(1 - 82) (1 - 80) (0 - 71) (0 - 62) (0 - 58) (0 - 57) (0 - 50) (0 - 40)

9 7 7 7 5 4 4 3

(0 - 54) (0 - 48) (0 - 47) (0 - 45) (0 - 39) (0 - 35) (0 - 34) (0 - 27)

9 8 8 7 6 5 5 3

(0 - 71) (0 - 66) (0 - 62) (0 - 55) (0 - 50) (0 - 46) (0 - 42) (0 - 32)

4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1

(0 - 28) (0 - 25) (0 - 24) (0 - 20) (0 - 20) (0 - 18) (0 - 17) (0 - 13)

7 6 6 6 4 4 4 3

(0 - 50) (0 - 46) (0 - 44) (0 - 42) (0 - 36) (0 - 33) (0 - 31) (0 - 25)

15 12 11 8 8 7 6 3

(1 - 66) (1 - 59) (0 - 56) (0 - 44) (0 - 42) (0 - 37) (0 - 34) (0 - 19)

35 33 28 19 18 17 13 6

(0 - 236) (0 - 225) (0 - 203) (0 - 148) (0 - 142) (0 - 129) (0 - 101) (0 - 48)

27 25 22 16 17 16 14 10

(0 - 189) (0 - 178) (0 - 166) (0 - 133) (0 - 137) (0 - 130) (0 - 119) (0 - 93)

14 12 11 8 8 7 6 5

(0 - 81) (0 - 74) (0 - 71) (0 - 59) (0 - 57) (0 - 53) (0 - 50) (0 - 40)

4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1

(0 - 26) (0 - 24) (0 - 22) (0 - 18) (0 - 17) (0 - 16) (0 - 14) (0 - 10)

5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2

(0 - 34) (0 - 31) (0 - 29) (0 - 25) (0 - 23) (0 - 22) (0 - 20) (0 - 15)

19 15 14 11 10 9 8 6

(1 - 102) (0 - 90) (0 - 89) (0 - 77) (0 - 72) (0 - 64) (0 - 62) (0 - 49)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

New York

Philadelphia

Abt Associates Inc. 3-32 December 2006
Table 3-13. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet

the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

782 770 693 621 580 577 510 415

(312 - 1365) (304 - 1348) (254 - 1230) (210 - 1115) (185 - 1050) (184 - 1045) (145 - 935) (95 - 777)

795 718 711 679 594 550 527 433

(326 - 1379) (273 - 1267) (268 - 1256) (247 - 1208) (193 - 1079) (166 - 1008) (152 - 972) (99 - 820)

1286 1202 1140 1038 946 895 827 670

(521 - 2239) (465 - 2111) (424 - 2018) (360 - 1858) (303 - 1711) (273 - 1629) (233 - 1517) (149 - 1255)

564 513 502 433 417 383 367 300

(254 - 962) (217 - 889) (209 - 872) (162 - 770) (151 - 744) (129 - 692) (119 - 666) (79 - 557)

864 782 764 743 633 578 553 450

(374 - 1490) (317 - 1369) (304 - 1342) (291 - 1311) (218 - 1140) (184 - 1052) (169 - 1012) (110 - 841)

404 362 346 278 264 239 209 106

(153 - 679) (131 - 610) (124 - 583) (91 - 467) (85 - 443) (74 - 398) (64 - 343) (35 - 150)

1504 1447 1266 863 851 796 575 206

(336 - 2792) (314 - 2692) (255 - 2364) (149 - 1613) (146 - 1590) (134 - 1486) (90 - 1058) (35 - 323)

3053 2879 2730 2237 2304 2189 2044 1654

(1184 - 5374) (1070 - 5107) (971 - 4878) (663 - 4097) (700 - 4205) (633 - 4019) (548 - 3783) (350 - 3125)

1232 1132 1100 958 925 860 818 677

(565 - 2082) (493 - 1939) (470 - 1891) (371 - 1680) (349 - 1631) (306 - 1529) (279 - 1464) (192 - 1237)

315 296 279 238 229 216 199 156

(106 - 566) (95 - 534) (86 - 506) (65 - 439) (60 - 423) (54 - 402) (46 - 371) (29 - 296)

515 476 455 396 374 350 326 264

(235 - 869) (208 - 814) (193 - 782) (154 - 695) (139 - 661) (124 - 623) (109 - 586) (73 - 484)

1327 1190 1183 1055 994 908 882 728

(560 - 2293) (465 - 2090) (460 - 2078) (377 - 1884) (338 - 1788) (285 - 1651) (269 - 1610) (182 - 1358)

196 192 166 143 131 130 111 86

(39 - 442) (37 - 435) (25 - 392) (16 - 352) (12 - 330) (12 - 328) (6 - 291) (1 - 240)

210 181 179 167 139 124 117 91

(56 - 458) (40 - 412) (39 - 408) (34 - 389) (20 - 341) (14 - 316) (12 - 304) (4 - 252)

325 297 276 243 215 200 180 139

(68 - 727) (54 - 679) (45 - 644) (31 - 588) (21 - 537) (16 - 510) (11 - 472) (2 - 388)

153 133 129 105 99 88 83 64

(43 - 320) (32 - 290) (30 - 284) (18 - 245) (15 - 236) (11 - 217) (9 - 208) (2 - 172)

226 197 190 183 147 130 123 94

(56 - 488) (41 - 441) (38 - 431) (34 - 420) (18 - 359) (12 - 328) (9 - 315) (2 - 259)

99 87 82 64 61 55 48 26

(13 - 223) (9 - 199) (8 - 191) (4 - 153) (3 - 145) (2 - 131) (1 - 114) (0 - 54)

315 302 261 175 173 161 117 46

(9 - 869) (8 - 837) (5 - 735) (1 - 502) (1 - 496) (1 - 463) (0 - 333) (0 - 112)

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

Atlanta

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Detroit

Houston

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Cleveland

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. 3-33 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** Location

753 695 646 494 513 480 439 339

(140 - 1727) (113 - 1630) (91 - 1547) (35 - 1277) (40 - 1314) (31 - 1252) (20 - 1174) (4 - 962)

335 297 284 234 223 202 189 147

(92 - 696) (71 - 638) (64 - 619) (39 - 539) (34 - 521) (25 - 485) (20 - 462) (7 - 386)

72 67 62 51 49 46 41 31

(8 - 179) (6 - 168) (5 - 159) (2 - 137) (2 - 132) (1 - 125) (1 - 115) (0 - 91)

141 126 118 98 91 83 75 57

(40 - 292) (32 - 269) (28 - 257) (18 - 224) (15 - 211) (11 - 198) (9 - 185) (2 - 150)

345 296 293 250 231 205 197 154

(82 - 752) (57 - 674) (55 - 670) (36 - 599) (28 - 564) (19 - 517) (16 - 503) (4 - 420)

30 29 23 18 16 16 12 8

(4 - 118) (4 - 116) (2 - 101) (1 - 88) (1 - 81) (1 - 80) (0 - 69) (0 - 55)

39 30 29 26 19 15 14 9

(10 - 130) (6 - 111) (6 - 110) (4 - 103) (2 - 85) (1 - 77) (1 - 73) (0 - 57)

51 44 38 31 26 23 20 13

(7 - 195) (5 - 179) (3 - 166) (1 - 148) (1 - 132) (0 - 123) (0 - 112) (0 - 88)

27 22 20 15 13 11 10 7

(5 - 91) (3 - 79) (3 - 77) (1 - 63) (1 - 60) (0 - 54) (0 - 51) (0 - 40)

37 30 28 26 18 15 14 9

(5 - 134) (3 - 117) (2 - 114) (2 - 110) (0 - 89) (0 - 80) (0 - 76) (0 - 59)

14 11 10 7 7 6 5 3

(1 - 60) (1 - 52) (1 - 50) (0 - 39) (0 - 37) (0 - 33) (0 - 29) (0 - 15)

31 29 24 15 15 14 10 4

(0 - 199) (0 - 191) (0 - 166) (0 - 112) (0 - 110) (0 - 103) (0 - 75) (0 - 28)

112 98 86 56 59 53 46 32

(13 - 455) (9 - 421) (6 - 392) (1 - 306) (1 - 317) (1 - 298) (0 - 275) (0 - 216)

61 50 46 33 31 26 23 16

(13 - 201) (8 - 177) (7 - 170) (3 - 141) (2 - 134) (1 - 123) (1 - 115) (0 - 92)

9 8 7 5 5 5 4 3

(1 - 44) (0 - 41) (0 - 38) (0 - 32) (0 - 31) (0 - 29) (0 - 26) (0 - 20)

26 22 19 14 13 11 9 6

(6 - 84) (4 - 75) (3 - 71) (1 - 59) (1 - 55) (1 - 50) (0 - 46) (0 - 36)

58 45 44 34 30 24 23 15

(11 - 208) (6 - 179) (6 - 177) (3 - 152) (2 - 141) (1 - 126) (1 - 122) (0 - 97)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Sacramento

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Washington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

Atlanta

Boston

New York

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Abt Associates Inc. 3-34 December 2006
Table 3-14. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet

the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.8%)

0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.6%)

0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%)

0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%)

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%)

0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

(0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.7%)

0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%)

0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

(0.2% - 1.3%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%)

0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) Los Angeles

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

Atlanta

Boston

Cleveland

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Abt Associates Inc. 3-35 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Location

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%)

*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of occurrences. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

Atlanta

New York

Philadelphia

Sacramento

Abt Associates Inc. 3-36 December 2006
Table 3-15. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet

the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%

(0.4% - 1.7%) (0.4% - 1.6%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.4%) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 0.9%)

1.1% 1% 1% 1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6%

(0.5% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.4%) (0.2% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1.2%)

1% 1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%

(0.4% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.4%) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1%)

1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1% 1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%

(0.6% - 2.2%) (0.5% - 2%) (0.5% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.3% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.3%)

1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6%

(0.5% - 2.1%) (0.5% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.2%)

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

1.1% 1.1% 1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6%

(0.4% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.2% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.2% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1.2%)

1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1% 0.9% 0.8%

(0.6% - 2.4%) (0.6% - 2.2%) (0.5% - 2.2%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.3% - 1.7%) (0.2% - 1.4%)

0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6%

(0.5% - 2%) (0.5% - 1.9%) (0.5% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.6%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.4%) (0.2% - 1.1%)

1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%

(0.5% - 2.1%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.3% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.2%)

0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) Los Angeles

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

Atlanta

Boston

Cleveland

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Abt Associates Inc. 3-37 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Location

0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%)

0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of occurrences. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

Atlanta

New York

Philadelphia

Sacramento

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Abt Associates Inc. 3-38 December 2006
Table 3-16. Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response

Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

62 61 53 45 42 41 35 26

(43 - 96) (42 - 94) (35 - 83) (29 - 72) (26 - 67) (26 - 66) (21 - 56) (14 - 42)

52 45 44 41 34 31 29 21

(33 - 82) (28 - 72) (27 - 71) (25 - 67) (19 - 55) (17 - 50) (15 - 46) (9 - 34)

60 56 52 45 40 37 33 23

(34 - 98) (31 - 90) (28 - 83) (23 - 72) (19 - 64) (17 - 59) (13 - 53) (6 - 39)

23 20 19 16 15 14 13 9

(14 - 37) (12 - 33) (11 - 32) (8 - 26) (8 - 24) (7 - 22) (6 - 20) (4 - 15)

46 40 39 37 30 27 25 19

(28 - 74) (24 - 66) (23 - 63) (21 - 60) (16 - 49) (14 - 44) (13 - 41) (8 - 30)

69 61 58 48 45 41 38 27

(49 - 105) (42 - 95) (40 - 91) (31 - 76) (29 - 72) (26 - 65) (23 - 60) (15 - 43)

121 113 100 74 71 66 54 27

(87 - 190) (81 - 178) (71 - 156) (52 - 114) (49 - 109) (45 - 101) (36 - 82) (16 - 42)

161 149 137 102 106 100 89 66

(97 - 261) (88 - 242) (79 - 222) (52 - 164) (55 - 172) (50 - 161) (42 - 144) (24 - 108)

63 57 54 44 42 39 35 27

(41 - 101) (36 - 92) (34 - 87) (26 - 72) (25 - 69) (22 - 63) (20 - 57) (13 - 42)

15 13 12 9 9 8 7 5

(11 - 23) (10 - 21) (9 - 19) (7 - 15) (6 - 13) (6 - 12) (5 - 11) (3 - 7)

27 24 23 19 18 16 15 11

(17 - 43) (15 - 40) (14 - 37) (11 - 31) (10 - 29) (9 - 26) (8 - 23) (5 - 18)

89 76 75 63 58 50 48 36

(60 - 138) (49 - 120) (48 - 119) (39 - 102) (35 - 94) (29 - 82) (27 - 78) (18 - 57)

20 20 16 13 12 11 9 6

(8 - 34) (8 - 33) (5 - 28) (3 - 24) (2 - 22) (2 - 21) (1 - 18) (0 - 14)

15 13 12 11 9 7 7 5

(4 - 27) (3 - 24) (2 - 23) (2 - 22) (1 - 18) (0 - 16) (0 - 15) (0 - 11)

15 14 12 10 9 8 7 5

(1 - 31) (0 - 29) (0 - 27) (0 - 24) (0 - 21) (0 - 20) (0 - 18) (0 - 13)

6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2

(1 - 12) (0 - 11) (0 - 10) (0 - 8) (0 - 8) (0 - 7) (0 - 7) (0 - 5)

12 11 10 9 7 6 6 4

(2 - 24) (1 - 21) (1 - 20) (1 - 19) (0 - 16) (0 - 14) (0 - 13) (0 - 10)

23 19 18 14 13 11 10 7

(10 - 37) (7 - 33) (6 - 31) (3 - 25) (3 - 24) (2 - 21) (1 - 19) (0 - 14)

34 31 26 18 17 16 13 6

(5 - 62) (4 - 58) (3 - 50) (1 - 37) (1 - 36) (0 - 33) (0 - 27) (0 - 14)

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Cleveland

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

Atlanta

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Detroit

Houston

Abt Associates Inc. 3-39 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Location

Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

43 39 35 24 25 23 20 14

(6 - 84) (4 - 78) (3 - 72) (0 - 53) (0 - 56) (0 - 52) (0 - 47) (0 - 35)

19 16 15 11 11 10 9 6

(5 - 33) (3 - 30) (3 - 28) (1 - 23) (1 - 22) (0 - 20) (0 - 18) (0 - 14)

4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1

(1 - 7) (0 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 3) (0 - 2)

7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2

(1 - 14) (1 - 13) (0 - 12) (0 - 10) (0 - 9) (0 - 8) (0 - 8) (0 - 6)

28 22 22 17 16 13 12 8

(10 - 48) (6 - 40) (6 - 40) (3 - 33) (2 - 30) (1 - 26) (1 - 25) (0 - 19)

4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1

(1 - 12) (1 - 11) (0 - 9) (0 - 7) (0 - 7) (0 - 7) (0 - 5) (0 - 4)

3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1

(0 - 9) (0 - 7) (0 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 3)

2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0

(0 - 9) (0 - 8) (0 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 3)

1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

(0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 1)

2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0

(0 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 6) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 3)

5 4 4 2 2 2 1 1

(1 - 13) (1 - 11) (0 - 10) (0 - 8) (0 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 6) (0 - 4)

5 5 4 2 2 2 2 1

(0 - 19) (0 - 18) (0 - 15) (0 - 11) (0 - 10) (0 - 9) (0 - 8) (0 - 4)

7 6 5 3 3 3 2 1

(0 - 25) (0 - 23) (0 - 20) (0 - 14) (0 - 15) (0 - 14) (0 - 12) (0 - 9)

3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1

(0 - 10) (0 - 9) (0 - 9) (0 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 6) (0 - 5) (0 - 4)

1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

(0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 1)

1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0

(0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 2)

6 4 4 3 2 2 2 1

(1 - 16) (0 - 13) (0 - 12) (0 - 10) (0 - 9) (0 - 8) (0 - 7) (0 - 5)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

New York

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Sacramento

Abt Associates Inc. 3-40 December 2006
Table 3-17. Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response

Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

94 92 79 69 63 63 53 40

(71 - 133) (69 - 131) (58 - 117) (49 - 105) (44 - 98) (44 - 97) (35 - 84) (25 - 66)

123 106 105 98 81 72 68 50

(95 - 167) (80 - 150) (79 - 148) (73 - 141) (58 - 121) (50 - 110) (46 - 104) (31 - 80)

186 172 160 141 124 116 104 77

(140 - 268) (127 - 252) (116 - 238) (99 - 216) (85 - 195) (78 - 183) (68 - 167) (47 - 127)

73 64 63 51 49 43 41 31

(57 - 99) (49 - 90) (48 - 88) (37 - 77) (35 - 74) (30 - 67) (28 - 64) (20 - 50)

121 106 103 99 80 71 67 50

(92 - 169) (79 - 154) (76 - 151) (73 - 147) (56 - 124) (49 - 113) (45 - 107) (31 - 82)

70 62 60 48 46 42 38 28

(50 - 106) (43 - 96) (41 - 92) (31 - 76) (30 - 73) (27 - 67) (24 - 61) (16 - 44)

120 115 99 70 70 66 52 28

(87 - 187) (83 - 180) (71 - 155) (49 - 109) (49 - 108) (46 - 102) (36 - 80) (18 - 43)

382 355 328 248 258 240 218 165

(283 - 555) (259 - 524) (236 - 494) (166 - 392) (175 - 406) (160 - 382) (141 - 350) (99 - 270)

149 134 129 106 101 92 85 65

(117 - 201) (103 - 185) (99 - 179) (78 - 156) (74 - 150) (65 - 139) (60 - 131) (42 - 104)

27 25 23 18 17 16 14 10

(21 - 40) (19 - 37) (18 - 35) (14 - 29) (13 - 27) (12 - 25) (10 - 22) (7 - 16)

72 65 61 52 48 44 40 30

(56 - 96) (50 - 89) (47 - 86) (38 - 75) (35 - 71) (31 - 66) (28 - 62) (19 - 48)

168 145 143 122 113 100 96 72

(129 - 231) (109 - 207) (108 - 205) (89 - 182) (80 - 171) (69 - 155) (65 - 150) (46 - 117)

36 35 29 23 21 20 16 11

(21 - 54) (20 - 52) (15 - 44) (11 - 38) (8 - 34) (8 - 34) (5 - 28) (1 - 21)

52 42 42 38 29 24 22 14

(33 - 74) (25 - 62) (24 - 61) (21 - 57) (14 - 45) (11 - 39) (9 - 37) (3 - 26)

71 63 57 47 40 36 31 20

(41 - 106) (35 - 96) (29 - 88) (22 - 76) (15 - 66) (12 - 62) (9 - 55) (2 - 40)

30 25 24 18 17 14 13 9

(19 - 43) (15 - 37) (15 - 36) (10 - 28) (9 - 27) (6 - 23) (5 - 22) (2 - 16)

47 40 38 36 27 22 21 14

(29 - 69) (23 - 60) (21 - 58) (20 - 55) (12 - 43) (9 - 38) (7 - 35) (1 - 26)

24 20 19 14 13 12 10 7

(11 - 38) (8 - 34) (7 - 32) (3 - 25) (3 - 24) (2 - 22) (1 - 20) (0 - 14)

35 33 27 18 18 17 13 7

(7 - 62) (6 - 59) (4 - 51) (1 - 35) (1 - 35) (1 - 33) (0 - 26) (0 - 14)

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Cleveland

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

Atlanta

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Detroit

Houston

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. 3-41 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Location

Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

142 128 114 76 81 73 64 43

(79 - 216) (68 - 197) (57 - 181) (26 - 132) (29 - 138) (23 - 127) (16 - 115) (3 - 86)

63 54 51 39 36 31 28 19

(41 - 89) (34 - 78) (31 - 75) (21 - 59) (19 - 56) (15 - 50) (13 - 46) (5 - 34)

10 8 8 6 5 5 4 3

(5 - 15) (4 - 13) (3 - 12) (2 - 10) (1 - 9) (1 - 8) (1 - 7) (0 - 5)

30 26 24 19 17 15 13 9

(20 - 43) (16 - 38) (15 - 35) (11 - 29) (9 - 26) (7 - 24) (6 - 22) (2 - 16)

68 55 55 44 39 32 30 20

(42 - 98) (32 - 82) (31 - 82) (22 - 68) (18 - 62) (13 - 54) (12 - 51) (4 - 38)

10 10 7 5 4 4 3 2

(3 - 21) (3 - 20) (2 - 16) (1 - 13) (1 - 11) (1 - 11) (0 - 9) (0 - 6)

18 13 13 11 7 5 5 2

(8 - 33) (5 - 26) (5 - 25) (4 - 23) (2 - 16) (1 - 14) (1 - 12) (0 - 8)

19 16 13 10 8 7 5 3

(6 - 40) (4 - 35) (3 - 31) (1 - 26) (1 - 22) (0 - 20) (0 - 17) (0 - 12)

9 7 7 4 4 3 3 1

(4 - 18) (2 - 14) (2 - 14) (1 - 10) (1 - 9) (0 - 8) (0 - 7) (0 - 5)

13 10 9 9 5 4 4 2

(4 - 27) (2 - 22) (2 - 21) (2 - 20) (0 - 14) (0 - 12) (0 - 11) (0 - 8)

6 4 4 2 2 2 2 1

(1 - 14) (1 - 11) (1 - 11) (0 - 8) (0 - 7) (0 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 4)

6 6 4 3 3 2 2 1

(0 - 20) (0 - 19) (0 - 16) (0 - 10) (0 - 10) (0 - 10) (0 - 8) (0 - 4)

37 31 26 14 16 13 11 6

(11 - 81) (8 - 72) (5 - 64) (1 - 43) (1 - 45) (1 - 41) (0 - 36) (0 - 25)

21 16 15 10 9 7 6 3

(9 - 39) (6 - 32) (5 - 30) (2 - 22) (2 - 20) (1 - 17) (1 - 16) (0 - 11)

2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0

(0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 2) (0 - 2)

10 8 7 5 4 3 3 1

(4 - 19) (3 - 15) (2 - 14) (1 - 11) (1 - 9) (0 - 8) (0 - 7) (0 - 5)

21 15 15 10 9 7 6 3

(8 - 41) (5 - 32) (5 - 31) (2 - 24) (1 - 21) (1 - 18) (1 - 17) (0 - 12)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

New York

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Abt Associates Inc. 3-42 December 2006
Table 3-18. Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response

Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

6.6% 6.4% 5.6% 4.8% 4.4% 4.4% 3.7% 2.8%

(4.6% - 10.1%) (4.4% - 9.9%) (3.7% - 8.8%) (3.1% - 7.7%) (2.8% - 7.1%) (2.7% - 7%) (2.2% - 5.9%) (1.5% - 4.5%)

4.7% 4.1% 4% 3.8% 3.1% 2.8% 2.6% 1.9%

(3% - 7.5%) (2.5% - 6.6%) (2.5% - 6.5%) (2.3% - 6.1%) (1.7% - 5%) (1.5% - 4.5%) (1.4% - 4.2%) (0.9% - 3.1%)

3.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.3% 2% 1.9% 1.7% 1.2%

(1.7% - 5%) (1.6% - 4.6%) (1.4% - 4.3%) (1.2% - 3.7%) (1% - 3.3%) (0.8% - 3%) (0.7% - 2.7%) (0.3% - 2%)

3.8% 3.4% 3.3% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.6%

(2.3% - 6.2%) (2% - 5.6%) (1.9% - 5.3%) (1.4% - 4.3%) (1.3% - 4.1%) (1.2% - 3.7%) (1% - 3.4%) (0.6% - 2.6%)

4.1% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 1.7%

(2.5% - 6.7%) (2.1% - 5.9%) (2% - 5.7%) (1.9% - 5.4%) (1.5% - 4.4%) (1.3% - 4%) (1.1% - 3.7%) (0.7% - 2.7%)

6.3% 5.6% 5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 3.8% 3.4% 2.5%

(4.5% - 9.6%) (3.9% - 8.7%) (3.6% - 8.3%) (2.9% - 6.9%) (2.7% - 6.6%) (2.4% - 6%) (2.1% - 5.5%) (1.4% - 4%)

3.3% 3.1% 2.7% 2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 0.7%

(2.4% - 5.2%) (2.2% - 4.9%) (1.9% - 4.3%) (1.4% - 3.1%) (1.3% - 3%) (1.2% - 2.8%) (1% - 2.2%) (0.4% - 1.1%)

3.9% 3.6% 3.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 1.6%

(2.3% - 6.3%) (2.1% - 5.8%) (1.9% - 5.4%) (1.2% - 4%) (1.3% - 4.1%) (1.2% - 3.9%) (1% - 3.5%) (0.6% - 2.6%)

5.3% 4.8% 4.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% 3% 2.2%

(3.5% - 8.5%) (3% - 7.7%) (2.8% - 7.4%) (2.2% - 6.1%) (2.1% - 5.8%) (1.9% - 5.3%) (1.7% - 4.8%) (1.1% - 3.6%)

3.6% 3.3% 2.9% 2.3% 2.1% 2% 1.7% 1.1%

(2.7% - 5.6%) (2.4% - 5.2%) (2.2% - 4.6%) (1.7% - 3.5%) (1.6% - 3.3%) (1.5% - 3%) (1.3% - 2.6%) (0.8% - 1.6%)

4.6% 4.2% 3.9% 3.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.5% 1.9%

(2.9% - 7.5%) (2.6% - 6.8%) (2.4% - 6.4%) (1.9% - 5.3%) (1.7% - 5%) (1.5% - 4.5%) (1.3% - 4%) (0.9% - 3.1%)

6% 5.1% 5% 4.2% 3.9% 3.4% 3.2% 2.4%

(4% - 9.3%) (3.3% - 8.1%) (3.3% - 8%) (2.6% - 6.9%) (2.4% - 6.3%) (2% - 5.5%) (1.8% - 5.2%) (1.2% - 3.9%)

2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.7%

(0.9% - 3.6%) (0.8% - 3.5%) (0.5% - 3%) (0.3% - 2.5%) (0.2% - 2.3%) (0.2% - 2.3%) (0.1% - 1.9%) (0% - 1.5%)

1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4%

(0.4% - 2.5%) (0.2% - 2.2%) (0.2% - 2.1%) (0.2% - 2%) (0.1% - 1.6%) (0% - 1.5%) (0% - 1.4%) (0% - 1%)

0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0% - 1.6%) (0% - 1.5%) (0% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.7%)

1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%

(0.1% - 2%) (0.1% - 1.8%) (0% - 1.7%) (0% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.9%)

1.1% 1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.2% - 2.1%) (0.1% - 1.9%) (0.1% - 1.8%) (0% - 1.7%) (0% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 0.9%)

2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1% 0.9% 0.6%

(0.9% - 3.4%) (0.6% - 3%) (0.5% - 2.8%) (0.3% - 2.3%) (0.2% - 2.2%) (0.1% - 1.9%) (0.1% - 1.8%) (0% - 1.3%)

0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.1% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 1.6%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.4%)

Percent of All Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards**

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

Atlanta

Boston

Cleveland

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. 3-43 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Percent of All Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards** Location

1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%

(0.2% - 2%) (0.1% - 1.9%) (0.1% - 1.7%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.9%)

1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5%

(0.4% - 2.8%) (0.3% - 2.5%) (0.2% - 2.4%) (0.1% - 1.9%) (0% - 1.9%) (0% - 1.7%) (0% - 1.6%) (0% - 1.2%)

1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.2% - 1.8%) (0.1% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 1.5%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.6%)

1.3% 1.1% 1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4%

(0.2% - 2.4%) (0.1% - 2.2%) (0.1% - 2%) (0% - 1.7%) (0% - 1.6%) (0% - 1.5%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1%)

1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.2% 1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6%

(0.7% - 3.2%) (0.4% - 2.7%) (0.4% - 2.7%) (0.2% - 2.2%) (0.1% - 2%) (0.1% - 1.8%) (0% - 1.7%) (0% - 1.3%)

0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.3%)

*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

New York

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Abt Associates Inc. 3-44 December 2006
Table 3-19. Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response

Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

9.9% 9.7% 8.4% 7.3% 6.7% 6.7% 5.6% 4.3%

(7.5% - 14.1%) (7.3% - 13.9%) (6.2% - 12.5%) (5.2% - 11.1%) (4.7% - 10.4%) (4.6% - 10.3%) (3.7% - 8.9%) (2.6% - 7%)

11.2% 9.7% 9.6% 9% 7.4% 6.6% 6.2% 4.6%

(8.7% - 15.3%) (7.3% - 13.7%) (7.2% - 13.5%) (6.7% - 12.8%) (5.3% - 11%) (4.6% - 10%) (4.2% - 9.5%) (2.9% - 7.3%)

9.6% 8.8% 8.2% 7.2% 6.4% 5.9% 5.3% 4%

(7.2% - 13.7%) (6.5% - 12.9%) (6% - 12.2%) (5.1% - 11.1%) (4.4% - 10%) (4% - 9.4%) (3.5% - 8.6%) (2.4% - 6.5%)

12.3% 10.8% 10.5% 8.7% 8.2% 7.3% 6.9% 5.2%

(9.6% - 16.7%) (8.3% - 15.2%) (8% - 14.9%) (6.3% - 12.9%) (5.9% - 12.4%) (5.1% - 11.3%) (4.7% - 10.8%) (3.3% - 8.4%)

10.9% 9.6% 9.3% 9% 7.2% 6.4% 6% 4.5%

(8.3% - 15.2%) (7.1% - 13.9%) (6.9% - 13.6%) (6.6% - 13.2%) (5.1% - 11.2%) (4.4% - 10.2%) (4% - 9.6%) (2.8% - 7.4%)

6.5% 5.7% 5.5% 4.4% 4.2% 3.9% 3.5% 2.6%

(4.6% - 9.7%) (4% - 8.8%) (3.8% - 8.5%) (2.9% - 7%) (2.7% - 6.7%) (2.4% - 6.2%) (2.2% - 5.6%) (1.4% - 4.1%)

3.3% 3.1% 2.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.4% 0.8%

(2.4% - 5.1%) (2.3% - 4.9%) (1.9% - 4.2%) (1.3% - 3%) (1.3% - 2.9%) (1.3% - 2.8%) (1% - 2.2%) (0.5% - 1.2%)

9.2% 8.6% 7.9% 6% 6.2% 5.8% 5.3% 4%

(6.8% - 13.4%) (6.2% - 12.6%) (5.7% - 11.9%) (4% - 9.4%) (4.2% - 9.8%) (3.8% - 9.2%) (3.4% - 8.4%) (2.4% - 6.5%)

12.6% 11.3% 10.9% 9% 8.5% 7.7% 7.2% 5.5%

(9.9% - 16.9%) (8.7% - 15.6%) (8.3% - 15.1%) (6.6% - 13.1%) (6.2% - 12.6%) (5.5% - 11.7%) (5% - 11.1%) (3.6% - 8.8%)

6.5% 6% 5.5% 4.5% 4.2% 3.9% 3.4% 2.5%

(5.1% - 9.7%) (4.7% - 9.1%) (4.3% - 8.4%) (3.4% - 7%) (3.2% - 6.6%) (2.9% - 6.1%) (2.5% - 5.4%) (1.8% - 3.8%)

12.3% 11.2% 10.5% 8.9% 8.2% 7.5% 6.9% 5.1%

(9.7% - 16.5%) (8.6% - 15.4%) (8.1% - 14.7%) (6.6% - 12.9%) (6% - 12.2%) (5.4% - 11.4%) (4.8% - 10.6%) (3.3% - 8.3%)

11.3% 9.7% 9.7% 8.2% 7.6% 6.7% 6.4% 4.9%

(8.7% - 15.6%) (7.3% - 13.9%) (7.2% - 13.8%) (6% - 12.3%) (5.4% - 11.5%) (4.6% - 10.4%) (4.4% - 10.1%) (3.1% - 7.9%)

3.8% 3.7% 3% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 1.7% 1.2%

(2.2% - 5.7%) (2.2% - 5.5%) (1.6% - 4.7%) (1.1% - 4%) (0.9% - 3.6%) (0.9% - 3.6%) (0.5% - 3%) (0.1% - 2.2%)

4.7% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 2.6% 2.2% 2% 1.3%

(3% - 6.8%) (2.3% - 5.7%) (2.2% - 5.6%) (2% - 5.2%) (1.3% - 4.1%) (1% - 3.6%) (0.8% - 3.3%) (0.3% - 2.4%)

3.6% 3.2% 2.9% 2.4% 2% 1.8% 1.6% 1%

(2.1% - 5.4%) (1.8% - 4.9%) (1.5% - 4.5%) (1.1% - 3.9%) (0.8% - 3.4%) (0.6% - 3.2%) (0.4% - 2.8%) (0.1% - 2.1%)

5.1% 4.3% 4.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.2% 1.5%

(3.3% - 7.2%) (2.6% - 6.2%) (2.5% - 6%) (1.7% - 4.8%) (1.5% - 4.5%) (1.1% - 3.9%) (0.9% - 3.7%) (0.3% - 2.7%)

4.3% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 2.4% 2% 1.8% 1.2%

(2.6% - 6.3%) (2% - 5.4%) (1.9% - 5.2%) (1.8% - 5%) (1.1% - 3.9%) (0.8% - 3.4%) (0.6% - 3.2%) (0.1% - 2.4%)

2.2% 1.9% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6%

(1% - 3.5%) (0.7% - 3.1%) (0.6% - 2.9%) (0.3% - 2.3%) (0.3% - 2.2%) (0.2% - 2%) (0.1% - 1.8%) (0% - 1.3%)

0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.2% - 1.7%) (0.2% - 1.6%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.4%)

Percent of All Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards**

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

Atlanta

Boston

Cleveland

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. 3-45 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Percent of All Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards** Location

3.4% 3.1% 2.8% 1.8% 2% 1.8% 1.5% 1%

(1.9% - 5.2%) (1.6% - 4.8%) (1.4% - 4.4%) (0.6% - 3.2%) (0.7% - 3.3%) (0.6% - 3.1%) (0.4% - 2.8%) (0.1% - 2.1%)

5.4% 4.6% 4.3% 3.3% 3% 2.6% 2.4% 1.6%

(3.5% - 7.5%) (2.8% - 6.6%) (2.6% - 6.3%) (1.8% - 5%) (1.6% - 4.7%) (1.3% - 4.2%) (1.1% - 3.9%) (0.4% - 2.9%)

2.3% 2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1% 0.6%

(1.1% - 3.5%) (0.9% - 3.2%) (0.7% - 2.9%) (0.4% - 2.3%) (0.3% - 2.2%) (0.3% - 2%) (0.2% - 1.7%) (0% - 1.2%)

5.2% 4.5% 4.2% 3.3% 2.9% 2.6% 2.3% 1.5%

(3.4% - 7.4%) (2.8% - 6.5%) (2.5% - 6.1%) (1.8% - 5%) (1.5% - 4.5%) (1.2% - 4.1%) (1% - 3.7%) (0.4% - 2.7%)

4.6% 3.7% 3.7% 2.9% 2.6% 2.2% 2.1% 1.4%

(2.9% - 6.6%) (2.1% - 5.6%) (2.1% - 5.5%) (1.5% - 4.6%) (1.2% - 4.2%) (0.9% - 3.6%) (0.8% - 3.4%) (0.3% - 2.5%)

1.1% 1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.4% - 2.2%) (0.3% - 2.2%) (0.2% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.7%)

1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2%

(0.7% - 3%) (0.5% - 2.3%) (0.4% - 2.3%) (0.4% - 2.1%) (0.2% - 1.5%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.7%)

1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.3% - 2.1%) (0.2% - 1.8%) (0.1% - 1.6%) (0.1% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.6%)

1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2%

(0.6% - 3%) (0.4% - 2.4%) (0.3% - 2.3%) (0.1% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 1.6%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 0.8%)

1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.4% - 2.4%) (0.2% - 2%) (0.2% - 1.9%) (0.2% - 1.8%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.7%)

0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 1.3%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.3% - 2%) (0.2% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 1.5%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.6%)

1.8% 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%

(0.8% - 3.3%) (0.5% - 2.7%) (0.4% - 2.5%) (0.2% - 1.8%) (0.2% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 1.5%) (0.1% - 1.3%) (0% - 0.9%)

0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 1.3%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%)

1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%

(0.7% - 3.2%) (0.5% - 2.7%) (0.4% - 2.4%) (0.2% - 1.8%) (0.1% - 1.6%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 0.8%)

1.4% 1% 1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

(0.6% - 2.8%) (0.3% - 2.1%) (0.3% - 2.1%) (0.2% - 1.6%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.8%)

*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

New York

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Abt Associates Inc. 3-46 December 2006
Figure 3-7. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of Occurrences of 

Lung Function Response Among All School Age Children when O3 Concentrations are Reduced 

from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative 

Standard, for Each of the Three Definitions of Response* 

Figure 3-7a. Based on 2004 Data 

-300%

2004 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

Alternative Standard 

Percent Change from Current Standard

Response: Change in FEV1>=10%

Response: Change in FEV1>=15%

Response: Change in FEV1>=20%

Figure 3-7b. Based on 2002 Data 

-300%

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2002 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Response: Change in FEV1>=10%

Response: Change in FEV1>=15%

Response: Change in FEV1>=20%

* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of 

m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily 

maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. 

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-47 
Figure 3-8. Percent Reductions of Occurrences of Decrement in FEV1 >15% Among All School Age 

Children when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to 

Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, Separately for Each Location* 

Figure 3-8a. Based on 2004 Data 

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard 

Percent Change

Atlanta: 131 (10 - 344); 0.2% (0% - 0.4%) Boston: 86 (5 - 238); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)

Chicago: 110 (1 - 328); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%) Cleveland: 43 (1 - 125); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)

Detroit: 79 (2 - 227); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%) Houston: 110 (13 - 253); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)

Los Angeles: 371 (6 - 1044); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%) New York: 296 (7 - 851); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)

Philadelphia: 130 (6 - 345); 0.1% (0% - 0.4%) Sacramento: 41 (1 - 114); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)

St. Louis: 54 (1 - 148); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%) Washington, DC: 164 (12 - 432); 0.1% (0% - 0.4%)

Figure 3-8b. Based on 2002 Data 

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2002 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change

Atlanta: 196 (39 - 442); 0.2% (0% - 0.5%) Boston: 210 (56 - 458); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.7%)

Chicago: 325 (68 - 727); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.6%) Cleveland: 153 (43 - 320); 0.4% (0.1% - 0.7%)

Detroit: 226 (56 - 488); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.7%) Houston: 99 (13 - 223); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)

Los Angeles: 315 (9 - 869); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%) New York: 753 (140 - 1727); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.6%)

Philadelphia: 335 (92 - 696); 0.4% (0.1% - 0.8%) Sacramento: 72 (8 - 179); 0.1% (0% - 0.4%)

St. Louis: 141 (40 - 292); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.7%) Washington, DC: 345 (82 - 752); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.7%)

* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of 

m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily 

maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. The 

percent reductions from the current standard (0.084/4) to a recent year of air quality were omitted for Los 

Angeles because they were so large in magnitude (-286% in 2004 and –290% in 2002). The incidence (and 

95% credible interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3 concentrations 

just meet the current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.

Abt Associates Inc. 3-48 December 2006 
Figure 3-9. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of All School Age 

Children Experiencing at Least One Occurrence of Lung Function Response when O3

Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would 

Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, for Each of the Three Definitions of Response* 

Figure 3-9a. Based on 2004 Data 

-400%

-350%

-300%

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Response: Change in FEV1>=10%

Response: Change in FEV1>=15%

Response: Change in FEV1>=20%

Figure 3-9b. Based on 2002 Data 

-400%

-350%

-300%

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2002 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Response: Change in FEV1>=10%

Response: Change in FEV1>=15%

Response: Change in FEV1>=20%

* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of 

m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily 

maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. 

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-49 
Figure 3-10. Percent Reductions in Numbers of All School Age Children Experiencing at Least One 

Decrement in FEV1 >15% when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the 

Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, Separately for Each 

Location* 

Figure 3-10a. Based on 2004 Data 

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change

Atlanta: 20 (8 - 34); 2.2% (0.9% - 3.6%) Boston: 15 (4 - 27); 1.4% (0.4% - 2.5%)

Chicago: 15 (1 - 31); 0.8% (0% - 1.6%) Cleveland: 6 (1 - 12); 1% (0.1% - 2%)

Detroit: 12 (2 - 24); 1.1% (0.2% - 2.1%) Houston: 23 (10 - 37); 2.1% (0.9% - 3.4%)

Los Angeles: 34 (5 - 62); 0.9% (0.1% - 1.7%) New York: 43 (6 - 84); 1% (0.2% - 2%)

Philadelphia: 19 (5 - 33); 1.6% (0.4% - 2.8%) Sacramento: 4 (1 - 7); 1% (0.2% - 1.8%)

St. Louis: 7 (1 - 14); 1.3% (0.2% - 2.4%) Washington, DC: 28 (10 - 48); 1.9% (0.7% - 3.2%)

Figure 3-10b. Based on 2002 Data 

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2002 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change

Atlanta: 36 (21 - 54); 3.8% (2.2% - 5.7%) Boston: 52 (33 - 74); 4.7% (3% - 6.8%)

Chicago: 71 (41 - 106); 3.6% (2.1% - 5.4%) Cleveland: 30 (19 - 43); 5.1% (3.3% - 7.2%)

Detroit: 47 (29 - 69); 4.3% (2.6% - 6.3%) Houston: 24 (11 - 38); 2.2% (1% - 3.5%)

Los Angeles: 35 (7 - 62); 0.9% (0.2% - 1.7%) New York: 142 (79 - 216); 3.4% (1.9% - 5.2%)

Philadelphia: 63 (41 - 89); 5.4% (3.5% - 7.5%) Sacramento: 10 (5 - 15); 2.3% (1.1% - 3.5%)

St. Louis: 30 (20 - 43); 5.2% (3.4% - 7.4%) Washington, DC: 68 (42 - 98); 4.6% (2.9% - 6.6%)

** The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of 

m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily 

maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. The 

percent reductions from the current standard (0.084/4) to a recent year of air quality were omitted for Los 

Angeles because they were so large in magnitude (-553% in 2004 and –528% in 2002). The incidence (and 

95% credible interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3 concentrations 

just meet the current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.

Abt Associates Inc. 3-50 December 2006 
 The estimated reductions in occurrence of lung function response when O3

concentrations just meet alternative daily maximum 8-hour standards, relative to when O3

concentrations just meet the current standard are greater the more stringent the alternative 

standard. For example, at the 0.084 ppm 3rd daily maximum standard (the standard that is 

closest to the current standard of 0.084 ppm 4th daily maximum), the aggregate number of 

occurrences of decrements in FEV1 ≥ 15% (across all locations) among all school age 

children is 8 percent less than when O3 concentrations just meet the current standard, 

based on 2004 air quality. At the most stringent standard considered (0.064 ppm 4th daily 

maximum), the aggregate number of such occurrences is estimated to be 61 percent less 

than when O3 concentrations just meet the current standard. The pattern is the same 

when exposure estimates are based on 2002 air quality – the corresponding percents 

based on 2002 air quality are 10 percent and 60 percent. 

 Similarly, the estimated percent reductions in occurrence of lung function 

response from when O3 concentrations just meet the current standard to when they just 

meet an alternative standard are greater the larger the decrement being measured. Using 

2004 air quality data, at the most stringent standard considered, the aggregate number of 

decrements in FEV1 ≥ 20% among all school age children is estimated to be 71 percent 

less than when O3 concentrations just meet the current standard (compared with 61 

percent less for decrements in FEV1 ≥ 15%, as noted above, and 58 percent less for 

decrements in FEV1 ≥ 10%). The pattern is similar when 2002 air quality data are used. 

The same patterns can be seen when the measure of interest is the number of 

children experiencing at least one occurrence of lung function response. The estimated 

reductions in aggregate number of children with at least one occurrence of lung function 

response when O3 concentrations just meet alternative daily maximum 8-hour standards, 

relative to when O3 concentrations just meet the current standard, are greater the more 

stringent the alternative standard. For example, at the 0.084 ppm 3rd daily maximum 

standard, the aggregate number of all school age children with at least one decrement in 

FEV1 ≥ 15% is 12 percent less than when O3 concentrations just meet the current 

standard, based on 2004 air quality. At the most stringent standard considered, this 

aggregate number is estimated to be 71 percent less than when O3 concentrations just 

meet the current standard. The pattern is the same when exposure estimates are based on 

2002 air quality – the corresponding percents based on 2002 air quality are 13 percent 

and 71 percent. 

Similarly, the estimated percent reductions in aggregate number of children with 

at least one lung function response from when O3 concentrations just meet the current 

standard to when they just meet an alternative standard are greater the larger the 

decrement being measured. Using 2004 air quality data, at the most stringent standard 

considered, the aggregate number of all school age children experiencing at least one 

decrement in FEV1 ≥ 20% is estimated to be 81 percent less than when O3 concentrations 

just meet the current standard (compared with about 71 percent less for decrements in 

FEV1 ≥ 15% and 62 percent less for decrements in FEV1 ≥ 10%). The pattern is similar 

when 2002 air quality data are used. 

The same patterns can be seen for active school age children. For example, at the 

0.084 ppm 3rd daily maximum standard (the standard that is closest to the current 

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-51 
standard of 0.084 ppm 4th daily maximum), the aggregate number of occurrences of 

decrements in FEV1 ≥ 15% among active school age children is 8 percent less than when 

O3 concentrations just meet the current standard, based on 2004 air quality. At the most 

stringent standard considered, the aggregate number of such occurrences is estimated to 

be 61 percent less than when O3 concentrations just meet the current standard. The 

pattern is the same when exposure estimates are based on 2002 air quality – the 

corresponding percents based on 2002 air quality are 9 percent and 60 percent. 

3.2.2.2 Results for five locations for the current standard and two alternative 

standards, based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality data 

In addition to the original alternative seven 8-hour daily maximum standards, 

EPA staff identified a smaller set of three 8-hour daily maximum standards, including the 

current standard (0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum) and two alternative standards (0.074 

ppm, 4th daily maximum and 0.064 ppm. 4th daily maximum) from the original set of 

seven. Analyses were carried out for a subset of five locations due to time constraints for 

completing the assessment – Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York – 

based on adjusting 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality data. 

3.2.2.2.1 Results for all school age children 

In this part of the analysis, lung function response of interest for all school age 

children is defined as a decrement in FEV1 ≥ 15%. The estimated numbers and 

percentages of occurrences of lung function response associated with exposure to O3

concentrations that just meet the current and each of the two alternative daily maximum 

8-hour standards among all school age children (ages 5 – 18) engaged in moderate 

exercise for at least one 8-hour period during the O3 season are given in Tables 3-20 and 

3-21, respectively. The numbers and percentages of these children estimated to 

experience at least one lung function response associated with exposure to O3

concentrations that just meet the current and each of the two alternative standards are 

given in Tables 3-22 and 3-23, respectively. Results based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3

concentrations are shown in each table. 

The percent reductions in numbers of school age children experiencing at least one 

occurrence of lung function response when O3 concentrations are reduced from those just 

meeting the current standard to those that would just meet each alternative standard, as 

well as a recent year of air quality, are summarized in Figures 3-11a, b, and c, using 

2004, 2003, and 2002 air quality data, respectively. 

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-52 
Table 3-20. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour

Standards Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Five Location-Specific

O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*

A Recent Year of Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

290 196 131 86

(88 - 593) (39 - 442) (12 - 330) (1 - 240)

511 325 215 139

(171 - 1015) (68 - 727) (21 - 537) (2 - 388)

209 99 61 26

(62 - 419) (13 - 223) (3 - 145) (0 - 54)

1265 315 173 46

(355 - 2642) (9 - 869) (1 - 496) (0 - 112)

1522 753 513 339

(585 - 2885) (140 - 1727) (40 - 1314) (4 - 962)

186 136 92 61

(32 - 431) (14 - 339) (3 - 253) (0 - 182)

265 214 143 93

(36 - 640) (20 - 542) (4 - 400) (0 - 284)

291 98 56 16

(96 - 567) (8 - 234) (1 - 137) (0 - 25)

1700 311 147 27

(610 - 3277) (13 - 833) (2 - 401) (0 - 36)

834 413 284 185

(237 - 1769) (42 - 1061) (8 - 806) (0 - 571)

191 131 91 62

(29 - 456) (10 - 344) (2 - 260) (0 - 191)

167 110 75 48

(6 - 460) (1 - 328) (0 - 239) (0 - 161)

230 110 69 32

(63 - 465) (13 - 253) (3 - 168) (0 - 73)

1470 371 220 75

(393 - 3073) (6 - 1044) (1 - 651) (0 - 220)

563 296 209 139

(77 - 1383) (7 - 851) (0 - 648) (0 - 458)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is

0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year

period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Atlanta

Chicago

Atlanta

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Houston

Houston

Based on 2004 Air Quality Data

Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Based on 2002 Air Quality Data

Based on 2003 Air Quality Data

New York

Location

Chicago

Los Angeles

New York

Atlanta

Chicago

Los Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. 3-53 December 2006
Table 3-21. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated

with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum

8-Hour Standards Among All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Five LocationSpecific O3 Seasons Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*

A Recent Year of Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

0.2% 0.1% 0% 0%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%)

0.3% 0.1% 0% 0%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%)

0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.2% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.2% 0.1% 0% 0%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%)

0.4% 0.1% 0% 0%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%)

0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

0.3% 0.1% 0% 0%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%)

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of occurrences. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard

is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-

year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Houston

Los Angeles

Location

Atlanta

Chicago

Based on 2002 Air Quality Data

Los Angeles

New York

New York

Based on 2003 Air Quality Data

Based on 2004 Air Quality Data

Atlanta

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Chicago

Houston

Chicago

Atlanta

Abt Associates Inc. 3-54 December 2006
Table 3-22. Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One

Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations

That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific

O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*

A Recent Year of Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

59 36 21 11

(40 - 81) (21 - 54) (8 - 34) (1 - 21)

123 71 40 20

(83 - 169) (41 - 106) (15 - 66) (2 - 40)

58 24 13 7

(38 - 80) (11 - 38) (3 - 24) (0 - 14)

220 35 18 7

(150 - 297) (7 - 62) (1 - 35) (0 - 14)

346 142 81 43

(244 - 462) (79 - 216) (29 - 138) (3 - 86)

34 23 13 7

(20 - 51) (10 - 37) (3 - 24) (0 - 15)

52 39 22 12

(25 - 81) (15 - 65) (3 - 42) (0 - 26)

72 19 11 5

(49 - 98) (6 - 32) (1 - 21) (0 - 12)

309 37 18 6

(221 - 406) (9 - 65) (2 - 35) (0 - 14)

223 84 46 24

(145 - 312) (34 - 140) (7 - 88) (0 - 54)

34 20 12 6

(19 - 51) (8 - 34) (2 - 22) (0 - 14)

27 15 9 5

(6 - 49) (1 - 31) (0 - 21) (0 - 13)

57 23 13 7

(37 - 79) (10 - 37) (3 - 24) (0 - 14)

220 34 17 6

(149 - 298) (5 - 62) (1 - 36) (0 - 14)

112 43 25 14

(55 - 176) (6 - 84) (0 - 56) (0 - 35)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

New York

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is

0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year

period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Based on 2003 Air Quality Data

Based on 2004 Air Quality Data

Atlanta

Houston

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

Chicago

Atlanta

New York

New York

Chicago

Houston

Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated

with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Based on 2002 Air Quality Data

Houston

Los Angeles

Location

Atlanta

Chicago

Abt Associates Inc. 3-55 December 2006
Table 3-23. Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One

Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That

Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3

Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*

A Recent Year of Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

6.3% 3.8% 2.2% 1.2%

(4.2% - 8.6%) (2.2% - 5.7%) (0.9% - 3.6%) (0.1% - 2.2%)

6.3% 3.6% 2% 1%

(4.2% - 8.7%) (2.1% - 5.4%) (0.8% - 3.4%) (0.1% - 2.1%)

5.3% 2.2% 1.2% 0.6%

(3.5% - 7.4%) (1% - 3.5%) (0.3% - 2.2%) (0% - 1.3%)

6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%

(4.1% - 8.1%) (0.2% - 1.7%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.4%)

8.3% 3.4% 2% 1%

(5.9% - 11.2%) (1.9% - 5.2%) (0.7% - 3.3%) (0.1% - 2.1%)

3.6% 2.4% 1.4% 0.7%

(2.1% - 5.4%) (1.1% - 3.9%) (0.3% - 2.5%) (0% - 1.6%)

2.6% 2% 1.1% 0.6%

(1.3% - 4.2%) (0.8% - 3.3%) (0.2% - 2.2%) (0% - 1.3%)

6.6% 1.7% 1% 0.5%

(4.5% - 9%) (0.6% - 3%) (0.1% - 1.9%) (0% - 1.1%)

8.4% 1% 0.5% 0.2%

(6% - 11.1%) (0.2% - 1.8%) (0.1% - 1%) (0% - 0.4%)

5.4% 2% 1.1% 0.6%

(3.5% - 7.5%) (0.8% - 3.4%) (0.2% - 2.1%) (0% - 1.3%)

3.6% 2.2% 1.2% 0.7%

(2% - 5.4%) (0.9% - 3.6%) (0.2% - 2.3%) (0% - 1.5%)

1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%

(0.3% - 2.5%) (0% - 1.6%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.7%)

5.2% 2.1% 1.2% 0.6%

(3.4% - 7.3%) (0.9% - 3.4%) (0.2% - 2.2%) (0% - 1.3%)

6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%

(4.1% - 8.1%) (0.1% - 1.7%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.4%)

2.7% 1% 0.6% 0.3%

(1.3% - 4.2%) (0.2% - 2%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 0.9%)

*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Chicago

Houston

Location

Atlanta

Chicago

Atlanta

New York

Percent of All Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3

Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Based on 2002 Air Quality Data

Houston

Los Angeles

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is

0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year

period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Based on 2003 Air Quality Data

Based on 2004 Air Quality Data

Chicago

Houston

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

New York

New York

Atlanta

Abt Associates Inc. 3-56 December 2006
Figure 3-11. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Two Alternative 

Standards in All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Experiencing at Least One O3-

Related Decrement in FEV1 ≥15%, Separately for Each of Five Locations* 

Figure 3-11a. Based on 2004 Air Quality** 

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standards

Percent Change from Current 

Standard

Atlanta: 20 (8 - 34); 2.2% (0.9% - 3.6%)

Chicago: 15 (1 - 31); 0.8% (0% - 1.6%)

Houston: 23 (10 - 37); 2.1% (0.9% - 3.4%)

Los Angeles: 34 (5 - 62); 0.9% (0.1% - 1.7%)

New York: 43 (6 - 84); 1% (0.2% - 2%)

* An 8-hr average standard, denoted m/n is characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily 

maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 – 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. 

The 4th daily maximum standards, denoted m/4, require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima 

over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm). The incidence (and 95% credible 

interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3 concentrations just meet the 

current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure. 

**The percent reduction from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2004 air quality was omitted for Los 

Angeles because it was so large in magnitude (-547%). 

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-57 
Figure 3-11b. Based on 2003 Air Quality** 

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2003 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standards

Percent Change from Current 

Standard

Atlanta: 23 (10 - 37); 2.4% (1.1% - 3.9%)

Chicago: 39 (15 - 65); 2% (0.8% - 3.3%)

Houston: 19 (6 - 32); 1.7% (0.6% - 3%)

Los Angeles: 37 (9 - 65); 1% (0.2% - 1.8%)

New York: 84 (34 - 140); 2% (0.8% - 3.4%)

**The percent reductions from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2003 air quality were omitted for Los 

Angeles and Houston because they were so large in magnitude (-735% in Los Angeles and –279% in 

Houston).

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-58 
Figure 3-11c. Based on 2002 Air Quality** 

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standards

Percent Change from Current 

Standard

Atlanta: 36 (21 - 54); 3.8% (2.2% - 5.7%)

Chicago: 71 (41 - 106); 3.6% (2.1% - 5.4%)

Houston: 24 (11 - 38); 2.2% (1% - 3.5%)

Los Angeles: 35 (7 - 62); 0.9% (0.2% - 1.7%)

New York: 142 (79 - 216); 3.4% (1.9% - 5.2%)

**The percent reduction from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2002 air quality was omitted for Los 

Angeles because it was so large in magnitude (-529%).

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-59 
In the great majority of cases, the estimated numbers of occurrences of lung function 

response associated with exposure to O3 concentrations that just meet the current standard 

among all school age children (ages 5 – 18) engaged in moderate exercise for at least one 

8-hour period during the O3 season are substantially lower than the corresponding 

numbers associated with exposure to “as is” O3 concentrations in any of the three years 

considered. As would be expected, the numbers of occurrences decline substantially as 

the standards become more stringent. Comparing the current standard to the 0.064, 4th

daily maximum standard, the numbers of occurrences decline from 53% in Atlanta and 

New York in 2004 to as much as 91% in Los Angeles in 2003. 

3.2.2.2.2 Results for asthmatic school age children 

Lung function response of interest for asthmatic school age children was defined as a 

decrement in FEV1 ≥ 10%. The estimated numbers and percentages of occurrences of 

lung function response associated with exposure to O3 concentrations that just meet the 

current and each of the two alternative daily maximum 8-hour standards among asthmatic 

school age children (ages 5 – 18) engaged in moderate exercise for at least one 8-hour 

period during the O3 season are given in Tables 3-24 and 3-25, respectively. The 

numbers and percentages of these children estimated to experience at least one lung 

function response associated with exposure to O3 concentrations that just meet the current 

and each of the two alternative standards are given in Tables 3-26 and 3-27, respectively. 

Results based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 concentrations are shown in each table. 

The percent reductions in numbers of school age children experiencing at least one 

occurrence of lung function response when O3 concentrations are reduced from those just 

meeting the current standard to those that would just meet each alternative standard, as 

well as a recent year of air quality, are summarized in Figures 3-12a, b, and c, using 

2004, 2003, and 2002 air quality data, respectively. 

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-60 
Table 3-24. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%) Associated with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour

Standards Among Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Five LocationSpecific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*

A Recent Year of Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

145 109 81 58

(68 - 244) (44 - 190) (26 - 146) (13 - 108)

257 186 137 97

(125 - 427) (75 - 324) (44 - 247) (22 - 182)

96 52 34 14

(45 - 158) (20 - 88) (11 - 57) (5 - 19)

561 182 102 25

(255 - 942) (42 - 335) (18 - 189) (4 - 39)

834 509 385 275

(435 - 1356) (200 - 894) (119 - 700) (59 - 519)

106 83 61 43

(40 - 187) (26 - 150) (14 - 114) (7 - 82)

163 137 100 69

(56 - 291) (42 - 250) (22 - 187) (9 - 134)

131 55 32 7

(64 - 213) (19 - 95) (9 - 55) (3 - 6)

690 177 86 11

(352 - 1119) (45 - 320) (18 - 153) (4 - 8)

506 304 227 158

(215 - 868) (88 - 557) (47 - 431) (19 - 310)

109 82 61 44

(38 - 196) (22 - 151) (12 - 116) (5 - 86)

114 80 57 38

(27 - 214) (12 - 154) (5 - 113) (1 - 78)

110 61 40 18

(51 - 181) (22 - 103) (12 - 68) (5 - 27)

660 219 134 46

(308 - 1108) (49 - 405) (21 - 253) (4 - 84)

399 240 179 124

(131 - 720) (46 - 458) (21 - 353) (6 - 252)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

Location

Atlanta

Chicago

Atlanta

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Chicago

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is

0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year

period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Based on 2002 Air Quality Data

Based on 2003 Air Quality Data

Based on 2004 Air Quality Data

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Atlanta

Chicago

Abt Associates Inc. 3-61 December 2006
Table 3-25. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%) Associated

with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum

8-Hour Standards Among Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for Five

Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*

A Recent Year of Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

1.3% 1% 0.7% 0.5%

(0.6% - 2.2%) (0.4% - 1.7%) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.1% - 1%)

1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6%

(0.7% - 2.4%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.2% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1%)

0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.3% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.1%)

1% 0.3% 0.2% 0%

(0.5% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.1%)

1.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.6%

(1% - 3.1%) (0.5% - 2.1%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.1% - 1.2%)

1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.4% - 1.7%) (0.2% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.7%)

0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4%

(0.3% - 1.6%) (0.2% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 0.8%)

0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0%

(0.4% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0%)

1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0%

(0.6% - 2%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0%)

1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.5% - 2%) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.1% - 1%) (0% - 0.7%)

1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.3% - 1.8%) (0.2% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1%) (0% - 0.8%)

0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.3% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.2%)

1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.6% - 2%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.3% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.6%)

*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Houston

Los Angeles

Location

Atlanta

Chicago

Based on 2002 Air Quality Data

Los Angeles

New York

Chicago

Atlanta

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard

is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-

year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

New York

Based on 2003 Air Quality Data

Based on 2004 Air Quality Data

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Chicago

Houston

Atlanta

Abt Associates Inc. 3-62 December 2006
Table 3-26. Number of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At

Least One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for

Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*

A Recent Year of Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

18 13 9 5

(14 - 23) (10 - 18) (6 - 13) (3 - 9)

40 27 18 11

(32 - 53) (20 - 39) (12 - 29) (7 - 19)

17 9 6 4

(13 - 23) (6 - 14) (4 - 9) (2 - 6)

61 16 9 4

(51 - 79) (11 - 24) (6 - 14) (2 - 6)

118 63 43 27

(97 - 147) (47 - 91) (29 - 67) (16 - 44)

12 9 6 4

(9 - 17) (6 - 13) (4 - 10) (2 - 6)

21 18 12 7

(15 - 32) (12 - 28) (7 - 19) (4 - 12)

20 8 5 3

(17 - 26) (5 - 12) (3 - 8) (2 - 5)

77 16 9 3

(65 - 95) (12 - 25) (6 - 14) (2 - 5)

81 42 27 17

(64 - 109) (29 - 64) (17 - 44) (9 - 27)

12 8 5 3

(9 - 17) (6 - 12) (3 - 9) (2 - 5)

14 9 6 3

(9 - 22) (5 - 14) (3 - 9) (1 - 6)

17 9 6 4

(14 - 23) (6 - 14) (4 - 10) (2 - 6)

62 16 9 4

(52 - 81) (11 - 25) (6 - 14) (2 - 6)

51 26 17 11

(37 - 76) (16 - 42) (9 - 28) (4 - 17)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

New York

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is

0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year

period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Based on 2003 Air Quality Data

Based on 2004 Air Quality Data

Atlanta

Houston

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

Chicago

Atlanta

New York

New York

Chicago

Houston

Number of Asthmatic Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Based on 2002 Air Quality Data

Houston

Los Angeles

Location

Atlanta

Chicago

Abt Associates Inc. 3-63 December 2006
Table 3-27. Percent of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At

Least One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for

Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 O3 Concentrations*

A Recent Year of Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

15.2% 10.9% 7.3% 4.6%

(12.2% - 19.8%) (8.3% - 15.3%) (5.1% - 11.2%) (2.9% - 7.4%)

14.5% 9.8% 6.5% 4.1%

(11.6% - 18.9%) (7.3% - 14%) (4.5% - 10.2%) (2.5% - 6.7%)

12.5% 6.7% 4.4% 2.7%

(9.9% - 16.7%) (4.8% - 10.1%) (2.8% - 7%) (1.5% - 4.2%)

13.3% 3.4% 2% 0.8%

(11.1% - 17.2%) (2.5% - 5.3%) (1.4% - 3%) (0.5% - 1.2%)

18.3% 9.8% 6.6% 4.2%

(15.1% - 22.9%) (7.3% - 14.1%) (4.5% - 10.3%) (2.6% - 6.8%)

10.1% 7.5% 5.1% 3.2%

(7.6% - 14.5%) (5.4% - 11.5%) (3.3% - 8.2%) (1.8% - 5.2%)

7.6% 6.3% 4.2% 2.6%

(5.5% - 11.5%) (4.3% - 9.8%) (2.6% - 6.8%) (1.4% - 4.2%)

15.1% 5.9% 3.9% 2.2%

(12.3% - 19.5%) (4% - 9.2%) (2.4% - 6.2%) (1.1% - 3.4%)

16.8% 3.5% 1.9% 0.7%

(14.3% - 20.9%) (2.6% - 5.4%) (1.4% - 3%) (0.5% - 1.2%)

12.7% 6.5% 4.2% 2.6%

(10% - 17%) (4.5% - 10%) (2.6% - 6.9%) (1.3% - 4.2%)

9.9% 6.9% 4.6% 2.9%

(7.4% - 14.2%) (4.8% - 10.6%) (2.9% - 7.4%) (1.6% - 4.7%)

4.9% 3.2% 2.1% 1.2%

(3.1% - 7.8%) (1.8% - 5.1%) (1% - 3.4%) (0.3% - 2%)

12.6% 6.7% 4.4% 2.6%

(10% - 16.8%) (4.7% - 10.1%) (2.9% - 7%) (1.5% - 4.2%)

13.6% 3.5% 2% 0.8%

(11.4% - 17.7%) (2.5% - 5.5%) (1.4% - 3.1%) (0.5% - 1.2%)

8% 4.1% 2.7% 1.6%

(5.8% - 11.8%) (2.5% - 6.6%) (1.4% - 4.3%) (0.6% - 2.7%)

*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Chicago

Houston

Location

Atlanta

Chicago

Atlanta

New York

Percent of Asthmatic Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with

O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Based on 2002 Air Quality Data

Houston

Los Angeles

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is

0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year

period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Based on 2003 Air Quality Data

Based on 2004 Air Quality Data

Chicago

Houston

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

New York

New York

Atlanta

Abt Associates Inc. 3-64 December 2006
Figure 3-12. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Two Alternative 

Standards in Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Experiencing at Least 

One O3-Related Decrement in FEV1≥10%, Separately for Each of Five Locations* 

Figure 3-12a. Based on 2004 Air Quality** 

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standards

Percent Change from Current 

Standard

Atlanta: 8 (6 - 12); 6.9% (4.8% - 10.6%)

Chicago: 9 (5 - 14); 3.2% (1.8% - 5.1%)

Houston: 9 (6 - 14); 6.7% (4.7% - 10.1%)

Los Angeles: 16 (11 - 25); 3.5% (2.5% - 5.5%)

New York: 26 (16 - 42); 4.1% (2.5% - 6.6%)

* An 8-hr average standard, denoted m/n is characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily 

maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 – 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. 

The 4th daily maximum standards, denoted m/4, require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima 

over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm). The incidence (and 95% credible 

interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3 concentrations just meet the 

current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure. 

 ** The percent reduction from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2004 air quality was omitted for Los 

Angeles because it was so large in magnitude (-288%).

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-65 
Figure 3-12b. Based on 2003 Air Quality** 

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2003 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standards

Percent Change from Current 

Standard

Atlanta: 9 (6 - 13); 7.5% (5.4% - 11.5%)

Chicago: 18 (12 - 28); 6.3% (4.3% - 9.8%)

Houston: 8 (5 - 12); 5.9% (4% - 9.2%)

Los Angeles: 16 (12 - 25); 3.5% (2.6% - 5.4%)

New York: 42 (29 - 64); 6.5% (4.5% - 10%)

** The percent reduction from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2003 air quality was omitted for Los 

Angeles because it was so large in magnitude (-381%). 

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-66 
Figure 3-12c. Based on 2002 Air Quality** 

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standards

Percent Change from Current 

Standard

Atlanta: 13 (10 - 18); 10.9% (8.3% - 15.3%)

Chicago: 27 (20 - 39); 9.8% (7.3% - 14%)

Houston: 9 (6 - 14); 6.7% (4.8% - 10.1%)

Los Angeles: 16 (11 - 24); 3.4% (2.5% - 5.3%)

New York: 63 (47 - 91); 9.8% (7.3% - 14.1%)

** The percent reduction from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2002 air quality was omitted for Los 

Angeles because it was so large in magnitude (-281%).

 

 

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-67 
 

The results for asthmatic school age children followed the same patterns as those for 

all school age children. In the great majority of cases, the estimated numbers of 

occurrences of lung function response associated with exposure to O3 concentrations that 

just meet the current standard among asthmatic school age children (ages 5 – 18) engaged 

in moderate exercise for at least one 8-hour period during the O3 season are substantially 

lower than the corresponding numbers associated with exposure to “as is” O3

concentrations in any of the three years considered. As would be expected, the numbers 

of occurrences decline substantially as the standards become more stringent. Comparing 

the current standard to the 0.064, 4th daily maximum standard, the numbers of 

occurrences decline from 46% in New York in 2002 and Atlanta in 2004 to as much as 

94% in Los Angeles in 2003. 

3.3 Sensitivity Analyses 

Two sources of uncertainty about estimates of O3-related lung function response 

among children that have been of particular concern are the estimates of PRB that go into 

the calculations and the form of the exposure-response function. We ran sensitivity 

analyses to address concerns about both of these sources of uncertainty. 

3.3.1 PRB sensitivity analysis 

The O3 risk assessment presented in this report calculates the risks associated with 

O3 concentrations – either “as is” O3 concentrations or O3 concentrations “rolled back” to 

just meet a standard – above PRB. The uncertainty about the PRB concentrations in each 

of the risk assessment locations induces a corresponding uncertainty about our estimates 

of risk. We selected three locations – Atlanta, Los Angeles, and New York – for this 

sensitivity analysis, and calculated lung function responses using (1) the original PRB 

estimates, (2) lower PRB estimates, and (3) higher PRB estimates for each location. For 

Los Angeles and New York, the lower PRB estimates were calculated by subtracting 5 

ppb from the original PRB estimates; for Atlanta, the lower PRB estimates were 

calculated by subtracting 10 ppb from the original PRB estimates. In all three locations, 

the higher PRB estimates were calculated by adding 5 ppb to the original PRB estimates.4

 

The analyses were run for all school age children, for whom “lung function response” 

was defined as a decrement in FEV1 >15%, and for asthmatic school age children, for 

whom “lung function response” was defined as a decrement in FEV1 >10%. 

 

4

 Summarizing their assessment of the validity of the GEOS-CHEM model, the O3 CD (EPA, 2006a) states, 

“in conclusion, we estimate that the PRB ozone values reported by Fiore et al. (2003) for afternoon surface 

air over the United States are likely 10 ppbv too high in the southeast in summer, and accurate within 5 

ppbv in other regions and seasons.” These error estimates are based on comparison of model output with 

observations for conditions that most nearly reflect those given in the PRB definition, i.e., at the lower end 

of the probability distribution. 

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-68 
Each table below shows the impact of changing PRB estimates on the assessment 

of lung function decrement associated with exposure to “as is” O3 concentrations over 

PRB levels, as well as O3 concentrations that just meet each of three alternative 8-hour 

daily maximum standards – 0.084 ppm, 0.074 ppm, and 0.064 ppm, 4th daily maximum – 

over PRB levels. In all cases, the results are for school age children, ages 5 - 18 (either 

all such children or asthmatic children only) engaged in moderate exercise for at least one 

8-hour period during the O3 season in a given year. Results for both 2002 and 2004 are 

included in each table. As with the results presented in Section 3.2, all estimated 

numbers (of children and of occurrences) were rounded to the nearest 1000, and all 

percentages were rounded to one decimal place. 

Table 3-28 shows the impact of alternative estimates of PRB on the estimated 

number of occurrences of lung function decrement among all school age children. Tables 

3-29 and 3-30 show the impact on the estimated number and percent, respectively, of 

school age children estimated to experience at least one occurrence of lung function 

response. Tables 3-31, 3-32, and 3-33 show the corresponding results for asthmatic 

school age children. 

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-69 
Table 3-28. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of Occurrences of

Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Among All Children (Age 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Associated

with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific

O3 Seasons*

2004 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4 2002 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

191 131 91 62 290 196 131 86

(29 - 456) (10 - 344) (2 - 260) (0 - 191) (88 - 593) (39 - 442) (12 - 330) (1 - 240)

213 153 112 83 312 218 153 108

(29 - 553) (10 - 440) (2 - 356) (0 - 287) (88 - 691) (39 - 539) (12 - 427) (1 - 338)

175 115 75 46 274 179 115 70

(29 - 396) (10 - 283) (2 - 199) (0 - 130) (88 - 532) (39 - 380) (12 - 268) (1 - 178)

1470 371 220 75 1265 315 173 46

(393 - 3073) (6 - 1044) (1 - 651) (0 - 220) (355 - 2642) (9 - 869) (1 - 496) (0 - 112)

1559 460 308 164 1352 402 260 133

(393 - 3424) (6 - 1396) (1 - 1003) (0 - 571) (355 - 2988) (9 - 1215) (1 - 842) (0 - 458)

1363 265 113 0 1160 210 68 0

(393 - 2687) (6 - 659) (1 - 266) (0 - 0) (355 - 2262) (9 - 489) (1 - 116) (0 - 0)

563 296 209 139 1522 753 513 339

(77 - 1383) (7 - 851) (0 - 648) (0 - 458) (585 - 2885) (140 - 1727) (40 - 1314) (4 - 962)

602 334 247 177 1562 793 552 378

(77 - 1553) (7 - 1021) (0 - 817) (0 - 627) (585 - 3058) (140 - 1900) (40 - 1486) (4 - 1135)

510 243 156 86 1468 699 458 284

(77 - 1178) (7 - 646) (0 - 442) (0 - 252) (585 - 2675) (140 - 1517) (40 - 1104) (4 - 753)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

New York

New York - with lower PRB

New York - with higher PRB

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Location

Atlanta

Number of Lung Function Responses (in 1000s), Based on Adjusting

2004 O3 Concentrations**

Number of Lung Function Responses (in 1000s), Based on Adjusting

2002 O3 Concentrations**

Los Angeles - with higher PRB

Atlanta - with lower PRB

Atlanta - with higher PRB

Los Angeles

Los Angeles - with lower PRB

Abt Associates Inc. 3-70 December 2006
Table 3-29. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of All Children (Ages 5-18)

Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated

with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific

O3 Seasons*

2004 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4 2002 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

34 20 12 6 59 36 21 11

(19 - 51) (8 - 34) (2 - 22) (0 - 14) (40 - 81) (21 - 54) (8 - 34) (1 - 21)

35 21 12 7 60 37 21 12

(19 - 54) (8 - 36) (2 - 25) (0 - 16) (40 - 84) (21 - 56) (8 - 37) (1 - 24)

33 19 11 5 58 35 20 10

(19 - 48) (8 - 31) (2 - 19) (0 - 11) (40 - 79) (21 - 51) (8 - 31) (1 - 18)

220 34 17 6 220 35 18 7

(149 - 298) (5 - 62) (1 - 36) (0 - 14) (150 - 297) (7 - 62) (1 - 35) (0 - 14)

225 38 22 11 225 39 23 11

(149 - 312) (5 - 75) (1 - 49) (0 - 27) (150 - 311) (7 - 75) (1 - 48) (0 - 27)

218 32 16 4 218 33 16 5

(149 - 293) (5 - 57) (1 - 31) (0 - 9) (150 - 292) (7 - 57) (1 - 30) (0 - 9)

112 43 25 14 346 142 81 43

(55 - 176) (6 - 84) (0 - 56) (0 - 35) (244 - 462) (79 - 216) (29 - 138) (3 - 86)

114 45 27 16 348 144 83 45

(55 - 183) (6 - 92) (0 - 63) (0 - 43) (244 - 469) (79 - 222) (29 - 145) (3 - 93)

110 41 23 12 343 140 79 41

(55 - 169) (6 - 78) (0 - 49) (0 - 29) (244 - 455) (79 - 208) (29 - 131) (3 - 79)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

Location

Atlanta

Number of All Children (in 1000s) with at Least One Response,

Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations**

Number of All Children (in 1000s) with at Least One Response,

Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations**

Atlanta - with lower PRB

Atlanta - with higher PRB

Los Angeles

Los Angeles - with lower PRB

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Los Angeles - with higher PRB

New York

New York - with lower PRB

New York - with higher PRB

Abt Associates Inc. 3-71 December 2006
Table 3-30. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of All Children (Ages 5-18)

Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=15%) Associated

with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific

O3 Seasons*

2004 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4 2002 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

3.6% 2.2% 1.2% 0.7% 6.3% 3.8% 2.2% 1.2%

(2% - 5.4%) (0.9% - 3.6%) (0.2% - 2.3%) (0% - 1.5%) (4.2% - 8.6%) (2.2% - 5.7%) (0.9% - 3.6%) (0.1% - 2.2%)

3.7% 2.2% 1.3% 0.7% 6.3% 3.9% 2.3% 1.2%

(2% - 5.7%) (0.9% - 3.9%) (0.2% - 2.6%) (0% - 1.7%) (4.2% - 8.9%) (2.2% - 6%) (0.9% - 3.9%) (0.1% - 2.5%)

3.5% 2.1% 1.1% 0.6% 6.2% 3.7% 2.1% 1.1%

(2% - 5.1%) (0.9% - 3.3%) (0.2% - 2%) (0% - 1.2%) (4.2% - 8.3%) (2.2% - 5.4%) (0.9% - 3.3%) (0.1% - 1.9%)

6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%

(4.1% - 8.1%) (0.1% - 1.7%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.4%) (4.1% - 8.1%) (0.2% - 1.7%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.4%)

6.1% 1% 0.6% 0.3% 6.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3%

(4.1% - 8.5%) (0.1% - 2%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 0.7%) (4.1% - 8.5%) (0.2% - 2%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 0.7%)

5.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%

(4.1% - 8%) (0.1% - 1.5%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.2%) (4.1% - 8%) (0.2% - 1.5%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.2%)

2.7% 1% 0.6% 0.3% 8.3% 3.4% 2% 1%

(1.3% - 4.2%) (0.2% - 2%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 0.9%) (5.9% - 11.2%) (1.9% - 5.2%) (0.7% - 3.3%) (0.1% - 2.1%)

2.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 8.4% 3.5% 2% 1.1%

(1.3% - 4.4%) (0.2% - 2.2%) (0% - 1.5%) (0% - 1%) (5.9% - 11.3%) (1.9% - 5.4%) (0.7% - 3.5%) (0.1% - 2.2%)

2.6% 1% 0.5% 0.3% 8.3% 3.4% 1.9% 1%

(1.3% - 4.1%) (0.2% - 1.9%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 0.7%) (5.9% - 11%) (1.9% - 5%) (0.7% - 3.2%) (0.1% - 1.9%)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Percent of All Children with at Least One Response, Based on

Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations** Location

Atlanta - with lower PRB

Percent of All Children with at Least One Response, Based on

Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations**

Atlanta

Atlanta - with higher PRB

Los Angeles

Los Angeles - with lower PRB

Los Angeles - with higher PRB

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

New York

New York - with lower PRB

New York - with higher PRB

Abt Associates Inc. 3-72 December 2006
Table 3-31. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of Occurrences of

Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%) Among Asthmatic Children (Age 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Associated

with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific

O3 Seasons*

2004 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4 2002 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

109 82 61 44 145 109 81 58

(38 - 196) (22 - 151) (12 - 116) (5 - 86) (68 - 244) (44 - 190) (26 - 146) (13 - 108)

129 101 80 63 165 129 101 78

(38 - 245) (22 - 200) (12 - 165) (5 - 135) (68 - 294) (44 - 240) (26 - 196) (13 - 158)

96 69 48 30 132 96 68 44

(38 - 167) (22 - 121) (12 - 86) (5 - 56) (68 - 215) (44 - 161) (26 - 117) (13 - 78)

660 219 134 46 561 182 102 25

(308 - 1108) (49 - 405) (21 - 253) (4 - 84) (255 - 942) (42 - 335) (18 - 189) (4 - 39)

724 283 198 110 625 245 166 88

(308 - 1256) (49 - 553) (21 - 401) (4 - 232) (255 - 1089) (42 - 482) (18 - 336) (4 - 186)

587 146 61 0 490 110 31 0

(308 - 950) (49 - 247) (21 - 95) (4 - 0) (255 - 787) (42 - 180) (18 - 34) (4 - 0)

399 240 179 124 834 509 385 275

(131 - 720) (46 - 458) (21 - 353) (6 - 252) (435 - 1356) (200 - 894) (119 - 700) (59 - 519)

441 281 220 165 876 551 427 317

(131 - 822) (46 - 560) (21 - 455) (6 - 354) (435 - 1460) (200 - 998) (119 - 805) (59 - 624)

347 187 126 71 781 455 331 221

(131 - 600) (46 - 339) (21 - 233) (6 - 133) (435 - 1234) (200 - 773) (119 - 579) (59 - 398)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

Number of Lung Function Responses (in 1000s), Based on Adjusting

2004 O3 Concentrations**

Number of Lung Function Responses (in 1000s), Based on Adjusting

2002 O3 Concentrations** Location

Atlanta

Atlanta - with lower PRB

Atlanta - with higher PRB

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

New York

New York - with higher PRB

Los Angeles

New York - with lower PRB

Los Angeles - with lower PRB

Los Angeles - with higher PRB

Abt Associates Inc. 3-73 December 2006
Table 3-32. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Number of Asthmatic Children

(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%)

Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons*

2004 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4 2002 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

12 8 5 3 18 13 9 5

(9 - 17) (6 - 12) (3 - 9) (2 - 5) (14 - 23) (10 - 18) (6 - 13) (3 - 9)

12 9 6 4 18 13 9 6

(9 - 18) (6 - 14) (3 - 10) (2 - 7) (14 - 24) (10 - 19) (6 - 14) (3 - 10)

11 7 5 3 17 12 8 5

(9 - 16) (6 - 11) (3 - 8) (2 - 4) (14 - 22) (10 - 17) (6 - 12) (3 - 8)

62 16 9 4 61 16 9 4

(52 - 81) (11 - 25) (6 - 14) (2 - 6) (51 - 79) (11 - 24) (6 - 14) (2 - 6)

65 19 12 6 64 18 12 7

(52 - 86) (11 - 30) (6 - 19) (2 - 11) (51 - 84) (11 - 29) (6 - 19) (2 - 11)

61 15 8 3 60 14 8 3

(52 - 79) (11 - 23) (6 - 12) (2 - 4) (51 - 77) (11 - 22) (6 - 12) (2 - 4)

51 26 17 11 118 63 43 27

(37 - 76) (16 - 42) (9 - 28) (4 - 17) (97 - 147) (47 - 91) (29 - 67) (16 - 44)

53 28 19 12 119 65 44 29

(37 - 80) (16 - 46) (9 - 32) (4 - 21) (97 - 151) (47 - 94) (29 - 70) (16 - 48)

50 24 16 9 116 61 41 25

(37 - 73) (16 - 39) (9 - 25) (4 - 14) (97 - 143) (47 - 87) (29 - 63) (16 - 40)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

Atlanta - with lower PRB

Atlanta - with higher PRB

New York - with lower PRB

Los Angeles - with lower PRB

Los Angeles - with higher PRB

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Number of Asthmatic Children (in 1000s) with at Least One

Response, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations**

Number of Asthmatic Children (in 1000s) with at Least One

Response, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations**

New York

New York - with higher PRB

Los Angeles

Location

Atlanta

Abt Associates Inc. 3-74 December 2006
Table 3-33. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated Percent of Asthmatic Children

(Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Change in FEV1>=10%)

Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons*

2004 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4 2002 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

15.2% 10.9% 7.3% 4.6% 15.2% 10.9% 7.3% 4.6%

(12.2% - 19.8%) (8.3% - 15.3%) (5.1% - 11.2%) (2.9% - 7.4%) (12.2% - 19.8%) (8.3% - 15.3%) (5.1% - 11.2%) (2.9% - 7.4%)

15.7% 11.3% 7.8% 5% 15.7% 11.3% 7.8% 5%

(12.2% - 20.8%) (8.3% - 16.3%) (5.1% - 12.2%) (2.9% - 8.5%) (12.2% - 20.8%) (8.3% - 16.3%) (5.1% - 12.2%) (2.9% - 8.5%)

14.7% 10.4% 6.8% 4.1% 14.7% 10.4% 6.8% 4.1%

(12.2% - 18.9%) (8.3% - 14.4%) (5.1% - 10.3%) (2.9% - 6.5%) (12.2% - 18.9%) (8.3% - 14.4%) (5.1% - 10.3%) (2.9% - 6.5%)

13.3% 3.4% 2% 0.8% 13.3% 3.4% 2% 0.8%

(11.1% - 17.2%) (2.5% - 5.3%) (1.4% - 3%) (0.5% - 1.2%) (11.1% - 17.2%) (2.5% - 5.3%) (1.4% - 3%) (0.5% - 1.2%)

13.9% 4% 2.6% 1.4% 13.9% 4% 2.6% 1.4%

(11.1% - 18.3%) (2.5% - 6.4%) (1.4% - 4.2%) (0.5% - 2.3%) (11.1% - 18.3%) (2.5% - 6.4%) (1.4% - 4.2%) (0.5% - 2.3%)

13.1% 3.2% 1.7% 0.6% 13.1% 3.2% 1.7% 0.6%

(11.1% - 16.8%) (2.5% - 4.9%) (1.4% - 2.6%) (0.5% - 0.8%) (11.1% - 16.8%) (2.5% - 4.9%) (1.4% - 2.6%) (0.5% - 0.8%)

18.3% 9.8% 6.6% 4.2% 18.3% 9.8% 6.6% 4.2%

(15.1% - 22.9%) (7.3% - 14.1%) (4.5% - 10.3%) (2.6% - 6.8%) (15.1% - 22.9%) (7.3% - 14.1%) (4.5% - 10.3%) (2.6% - 6.8%)

18.6% 10.1% 6.9% 4.5% 18.6% 10.1% 6.9% 4.5%

(15.1% - 23.4%) (7.3% - 14.7%) (4.5% - 10.9%) (2.6% - 7.4%) (15.1% - 23.4%) (7.3% - 14.7%) (4.5% - 10.9%) (2.6% - 7.4%)

18% 9.5% 6.3% 3.9% 18% 9.5% 6.3% 3.9%

(15.1% - 22.3%) (7.3% - 13.6%) (4.5% - 9.8%) (2.6% - 6.3%) (15.1% - 22.3%) (7.3% - 13.6%) (4.5% - 9.8%) (2.6% - 6.3%)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles - with lower PRB

Los Angeles - with higher PRB

New York

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

New York - with higher PRB

New York - with lower PRB

Atlanta - with higher PRB

Percent of Asthmatic Children with at Least One Response, Based

on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations**

Percent of Asthmatic Children with at Least One Response, Based

on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations**

Los Angeles

Location

Atlanta

Atlanta - with lower PRB

Abt Associates Inc. 3-75 December 2006
The impact of changing the assumed PRB levels varied substantially from one 

location to another and from one standard to another. For example, assuming lower PRB 

levels increased the estimated number of occurrences associated with 2002 “as is” air 

quality among all children in New York by only 3 percent (from 1,522,000 to 1,562,000); 

however, it increased the estimated number of occurrences associated with O3 

concentrations that just meet the 0.064 4th daily maximum standard among all children in 

Los Angeles by 189 percent (from 46,000 to 133,000), based on adjusting 2002 O3 

concentrations, and by 119 percent (from 75,000 to 164,000), based on adjusting 2004 O3 

concentrations. 

The impact was similarly varied among asthmatic children. Assuming lower PRB 

levels increased the estimated number of occurrences associated with 2002 “as is” air 

quality among asthmatic children in New York by only 5 percent (from 834,000 to 

876,000); however, it increased the estimated number of occurrences associated with O3 

concentrations that just meet the 0.064 4th daily maximum standard among asthmatic 

children in Los Angeles by 252 percent (from 25,000 to 88,000), based on adjusting 2002 

O3 concentrations, and by 139 percent (from 46,000 to 110,000), based on adjusting 2004 

O3 concentrations. As would be expected, however, the impact on the number of lung 

function occurrences of assuming lower PRB levels increased from a recent year of air 

quality to the current standard and from the current standard to successively more 

stringent alternative standards, for both all children and asthmatic children. The impact 

on the number of children with at least one lung function occurrence generally followed 

the same pattern. 

The impact of assuming higher PRB levels followed the same patterns but in the 

opposite direction, resulting in negative percent changes in estimated numbers of lung 

function occurrence that were successively greater in absolute value as we went from a 

recent year of air quality to the current standard and from the current standard to 

successively more stringent alternative standards. The impacts also varied substantially, 

ranging from a 4 percent decrease in the estimated number of occurrences associated with 

2002 “as is” air quality among all children in New York to 100% decreases in the 

estimated numbers of occurrences associated with O3 concentrations that just meet the 

0.064 4th daily maximum standard among all children in Los Angeles, based on adjusting 

2002 and 2004 air quality data.5

 The results for lung function occurrences among 

asthmatic children were similar. 

3.3.2 Exposure-response functional form sensitivity analysis 

 As noted above, the exposure-response functions used in the primary analyses are 

based on the assumption that the relationship between exposure and response has a 

logistic form with 90 percent probability and a linear (hockeystick) form with 10 percent 

probability. If we had assumed different probabilities for the two alternative functional 

forms, the resulting exposure-response curves, and the response probabilities associated 

with exposure to any given O3 concentration, would have been different. In this 

 

5

 These percentages are based on the rounded occurrence values. If they had been based on the unrounded 

values, the percent decrease would have been large but not 100%. 

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-76 
sensitivity analysis, we considered the impact of two alternative exposure-response 

functions, based on an 80 percent logistic/20 percent linear split and a 50 percent logistic 

/50 percent linear split, in five locations – Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and 

New York. Tables C-13 through C-16 in Appendix C show the impact of the alternative 

exposure-response functions on the estimated number of children, ages 5-18, engaged in 

moderate exertion experiencing at least one lung function response. Tables C-13 and C14 show the impact on the estimated number of all school age children experiencing at 

least one lung function response, defined as a change in FEV1 ≥ 15%, for a recent year of 

air quality as well as when O3 concentrations just meet each of three 4th daily maximum 

standards – 0.084/4, 0.074/4 and 0.064/4, based on adjusting 2004 and 2002 data, 

respectively. Tables C-15 and C-16 show the corresponding impacts on the estimated 

number of asthmatic school age children experiencing at least one lung function 

response, defined as a change in FEV1 ≥ 10%. Figures 3-13 and 3-14 show the impacts 

of alternative estimates of exposure-response functions on estimated percent changes in 

response among all school age children and asthmatic school age children, respectively, 

when O3 concentrations are changed from those just meeting the current standard to a 

recent year of air quality and to those just meeting each of the two alternative standards 

given above. 

The impacts of changing the functional form varied substantially, and there was 

no discernable pattern. Not surprisingly, the impacts of changing from the 90%/10% 

split to the 80%/20% split were generally small, especially for all school age children. In 

most cases, the number of all school age children responding estimated by the 80%/20% 

split was within 5 percent of the estimate obtained using the 90%/10% split. There were, 

however, some more substantial changes. The largest differences for all school age 

children occurred for O3 concentrations just meeting the most stringent standard, 0.064/4 

– a 14% decrease in the estimated number of all children responding (as defined above) 

in Houston (from about 7,000 to about 6,000), based on adjusting 2004 air quality, and 

14% decreases in the estimated number of children responding in Houston and Los 

Angeles (from about 7,000 to about 6,000 in each location), based on adjusting 2002 air 

quality. For asthmatic school age children, the differences in estimated number of 

children responding tended to be larger. The largest differences were a 33% increase in 

the estimated number of children responding in Atlanta (from about 3,000 to about 4,000) 

for O3 concentrations just meeting the 0.064/4 standard, based on adjusting 2004 air 

quality, and a 20% increase in Atlanta (from about 5,000 to about 6,000) for O3

concentrations just meeting the 0.064/4 standard, based on adjusting 2002 air quality. 

The impacts of changing from the 90%/10% split to the 50%/50% split were 

generally (although not always) larger. The largest impacts were again seen for O3

concentrations just meeting the most stringent standard of 0.064/4 – an 86% decrease in 

the estimated number of all children responding in New York (from about 14,000 to 

about 2,000), based on adjusting 2004 air quality, and a 71% decrease in the estimated 

number of all children responding in Los Angeles (from about 7,000 to about 2,000), 

based on adjusting 2002 air quality. For asthmatic children, there were several cases of 

increases from 50% to 67% for O3 concentrations just meeting the 0.074/4 and 0.064/4 

standards, based on adjusting both 2004 and 2002 air quality. 

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-77 
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-78 

Figure 3-13. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on 

Estimated Percent Reductions in Numbers of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion 

Experiencing at Least One Decrement in FEV1 >15% when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those 

Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each of Several Alternative Daily 

Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons 

Figure 3-13a. Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations 

Atlanta 

-350%

-300%

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

Chicago 

-350%

-300%

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

Houston 

-350%

-300%

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

Los Angeles* 

-350%

-300%

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

New York 

-350%

-300%

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

* The percent reductions from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2004 air quality were omitted for Los Angeles 

because they were so large in magnitude (-553%, -587%, and –1027% for the 90/10, 80/20 and 50/50 splits, 

respectively). 
Figure 3-13b. Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

Atlanta 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

Chicago 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

Houston 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

Los Angeles* 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

New York 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

* The percent reductions from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2002 air quality were omitted for Los Angeles 

because they were so large in magnitude (-526%, -549%, and –842% for the 90/10, 80/20 and 50/50 splits, 

respectively).

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-79 
Figure 3-14. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on 

Estimated Percent Reductions in Numbers of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate 

Exertion Experiencing at Least One Decrement in FEV1 >10% when O3 Concentrations are Reduced 

from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each of Several 

Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Five Location-Specific O3 Seasons 

Figure 3-14a. Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations 

Atlanta 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

Chicago 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

Houston 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

Los Angeles* 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

New York 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

* The percent reductions from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2004 air quality, based on the 90/10, 80/20, and 

50/50 split exposure-response functions for Los Angeles were -294%, -280%, and –201%, respectively.

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-80 
Figure 3-14b. Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations 

Atlanta 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

Chicago 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

Houston 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

Los Angeles* 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

New York 

-180%

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

90% logistic-10% linear

80% logistic-20% linear

50% logistic-50% linear

* The percent reductions from the current standard (0.084/4) to 2002 air quality, based on the 90/10, 80/20, and 

50/50 split exposure-response functions for Los Angeles were -287%, -274%, and –198%, respectively.

Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 3-81 
Abt Associates Inc. 4-1 December 2006

4 ASSESSMENT OF RISK BASED ON EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES

As discussed in the O3 CD, a significant number of epidemiological studies

examining a variety of health effects associated with ambient O3 concentrations in

various locations throughout the U.S., Canada, Europe, and other regions of the world

have been published since the last O3 NAAQS review. As a result of the availability of

these epidemiological studies and air quality information, EPA staff decided to expand

the O3 risk assessment to include an assessment of selected health risks attributable to

ambient O3 concentrations over PRB concentrations and the reduced health risks

associated with just meeting the current O3 standard and alternative O3 standards in

selected urban locations in the U.S. The methods and results of this portion of the risk

assessment are discussed below.

4.1 Methods

4.1.1 General approach

As in the recently completed particulate matter (PM) risk assessment (see EPA,

2005c, Chapter 4, and Abt Associates 2005), the general approach used in this part of the

O3 risk assessment relies upon C-R functions which have been estimated in

epidemiological studies. Since these studies estimate C-R functions using ambient air

quality data from fixed-site, population-oriented monitors, the appropriate application of

these functions in a risk assessment similarly requires the use of ambient air quality data

at fixed-site, ambient monitors. The general O3 health risk model combines information

about O3 air quality for specific urban areas with C-R functions derived from

epidemiological studies and baseline health incidence data for specific health endpoints

and population estimates to derive estimates of the incidence of specified health effects

attributable to ambient O3 concentrations during the period examined. Although the O3

season varies somewhat from one location to another, in most locations it coincides

roughly with spring and summer. To allow comparisons across locations, and because O3

effects observed in epidemiological studies have been more clearly and consistently

shown for warm season analyses, all analyses for this portion of the risk assessment were

carried out for the same time period, April through September. The analyses are

conducted for “as is” air quality and for air quality simulated to reflect just meeting the

current O3 ambient standard, as well as air quality simulated to reflect just meeting

alternative O3 ambient standards. Because O3 concentrations varied substantially over

the 3-year period from 2002 through 2004, separate analyses were carried out using air

quality data from 2002, in which O3 concentrations were relatively higher in most

locations for this 3-year period, and air quality data from 2004, in which O3

concentrations were relatively lower in most locations for this 3-year period, to provide

generally upper- and lower-end cases within this 3-year period. Two of the 12 urban

areas, Houston and Los Angeles, had similar or higher O3 concentrations in 2004 than in

2002. In addition to the 2002 and 2004 analyses, a more limited set of analyses, focusing

only on mortality in a subset of five urban areas (Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los

Angeles, and New York), was carried out using air quality data from 2003. The major
Abt Associates Inc. 4-2 December 2006

components of the portion of the health risk assessment based on data from

epidemiological studies are illustrated in Figure 4-1.

In the first part of the epidemiology-based portion of the risk assessment, we

estimated health effects incidence associated with “as is” O3 levels. In the second part,

we estimated the reduced health effects incidence associated with those O3 concentrations

that would result if the current and alternative O3 standards were just met in the

assessment locations. In both parts, we considered only the incidence of health effects

associated with O3 concentrations in excess of estimated PRB O3 levels.

Both parts of the epidemiology-based portion of the risk assessment may be

viewed as assessing the change in incidence of the health effect associated with a change

in O3 concentrations from some upper levels to specified (lower) levels. The important

operational difference between the two parts is in the upper O3 levels. In the first part,

the upper O3 levels are “as is” concentrations. In contrast, the upper O3 levels in the

second part are the estimated O3 levels that would occur when the current 8-hour daily

maximum O3 standard is just met in the assessment locations or when one of several

alternative 8-hour daily maximum O3 standards is just met in these locations. The second

part therefore requires that a method be developed to simulate just meeting the current or

alternative standards. This method is described in Chapter 4 of the Staff Paper and in

Rizzo (2005, 2006).
Abt Associates Inc. 4-3 December 2006

Figure 4-1. Major Components of Ozone Health Risk Assessment Based on Epidemiology Studies

Ambient Monitoring for

Selected Urban Areas

Air Quality Adjustment

Procedures

Current and Alternative

Proposed Standards

Changes in

Distribution of

O3 Air Quality

Risk Estimates:

• Recent Air

Quality

• Current

Standard

• Alternative

Standards

Health

Risk

Model

Estimates of City-specific

Baseline Health Effects

Incidence Rates and

Population Data

Human Epidemiological

Studies

Concentration -

Response

Relationships

Concentration-Response

Air Quality

Modeled Background

Concentrations

Recent (“As Is”)

Ambient O3 Levels Ambient Monitoring for

Selected Urban Areas

Air Quality Adjustment

Procedures

Current and Alternative

Proposed Standards

Changes in

Distribution of

O3 Air Quality

Risk Estimates:

• Recent Air

Quality

• Current

Standard

• Alternative

Standards

Health

Risk

Model

Estimates of City-specific

Baseline Health Effects

Incidence Rates and

Population Data

Human Epidemiological

Studies

Concentration -

Response

Relationships

Concentration-Response

Air Quality

Modeled Background

Concentrations

Recent (“As Is”)

Ambient O3 Levels
Abt Associates Inc. 4-4 December 2006

To estimate the change in incidence of a given health effect resulting from a change in

ambient O3 concentrations from “as is” levels to PRB levels, or from O3 concentrations that just

meet the current or an alternative standard to PRB levels, in an assessment location, the

following analysis inputs are necessary:

 Air quality information including: (1) “as is” air quality data for O3 from ambient

monitors in the assessment location, (2) “as is” concentrations adjusted to reflect

patterns of air quality estimated to occur when the area just meets the specified standard,

and (3) estimates of PRB O3 concentrations appropriate to this location. (These air

quality inputs are discussed in more detail in Chapter 2 of this report and in Chapters 2

and 4 of the Staff Paper.

 Concentration-response function(s) which provide an estimate of the relationship

between the health endpoint of interest and O3 concentrations (preferably derived in the

assessment location, although functions estimated in other locations can be used at the

cost of increased uncertainty -- see Section 4.1.9.1.3).

 Baseline health effects incidence rate and population. The baseline incidence rate

provides an estimate of the incidence rate (number of cases of the health effect per O3

season, usually per 10,000 or 100,000 population) in the assessment location

corresponding to “as is” O3 levels in that location. To derive the total baseline incidence

per O3 season, the baseline incidence rate must be multiplied by the corresponding

population number (e.g., if the baseline incidence rate is number of cases per O3 season

per 100,000 population, it must be multiplied by the number of 100,000s in the

population). (Section 4.1.8 summarizes considerations related to the baseline incidence

rate and population data inputs to the risk assessment).

These inputs are combined to estimate health effect incidence changes associated with

specified changes in O3 levels. Although some epidemiological studies have estimated linear or

logistic C-R functions, by far the most common form is the exponential (or log-linear) form:

x Bey



 , (4-1)

where x is the ambient O3 level, y is the incidence of the health endpoint of interest at O3 level x,

β is the coefficient of ambient O3 concentration (describing the extent of change in y with a unit

change in x), and B is the incidence at x=0, i.e., when there is no ambient O3. The relationship

between a specified ambient O3 level, x0, for example, and the incidence of a given health

endpoint associated with that level (denoted as y0) is then

0

0

x

Bey



 . (4-2)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-5 December 2006

Because the log-linear form of C-R function (equation (4-1)) is by far the most common form,

we use this form to illustrate the “health impact function” used in this portion of the risk

assessment.6

If we let x0 denote the baseline (upper) O3 level, and x1 denote the lower O3 level, and y0

and y1 denote the corresponding incidences of the health effect, we can derive the following

relationship between the change in x, Δx= (x0- x1), and the corresponding change in y, Δy, from 

equation (4-1)7:





y y y y e

x

   



( ) [ ]. 0 1 0 1



(4-3)

Alternatively, the difference in health effects incidence can be calculated indirectly using

relative risk. Relative risk (RR) is a measure commonly used by epidemiologists to characterize

the comparative health effects associated with a particular air quality comparison. The risk of

mortality at ambient O3 level x0 relative to the risk of mortality at ambient O3 level x1, for

example, may be characterized by the ratio of the two mortality rates: the mortality rate among

individuals when the ambient O3 level is x0 and the mortality rate among (otherwise identical)

individuals when the ambient O3 level is x1. This is the RR for mortality associated with the

difference between the two ambient O3 levels, x0 and x1. Given a C-R function of the form

shown in equation (4-1) and a particular difference in ambient O3 levels, Δx, the RR associated

with that difference in ambient O3, denoted as RRΔx, is equal to eβΔx. The difference in health

effects incidence, Δy, corresponding to a given difference in ambient O3 levels, Δx, can then be 

calculated based on this RRΔx as

)]/1(1[)(

010 RR x

yyyy  . (4-4)

Equations (4-3) and (4-4) are simply alternative ways of expressing the relationship between a

given difference in ambient O3 levels, Δx > 0, and the corresponding difference in health effects 

incidence, Δy. These health impact equations are the key equations that combine air quality

information, C-R function information, and baseline health effects incidence information to

estimate ambient O3 health risk.

4.1.2 Air quality considerations

Air quality considerations are discussed in detail in Chapter 2 of this report and Chapters

2 and 4 of the Staff Paper and in Rizzo (2005, 2006). Here we describe those air quality

considerations that are directly relevant to the estimation of health risks in the epidemiologybased portion of the risk assessment.

6 The derivations of health impact functions from concentration-response functions for all three functional forms

found in the epidemiological literature – the log-linear, the linear and the logistic – are given in section B.2 of

Appendix B.

7

If Δx < 0 – i.e., if Δx = (x1- x0) – then the relationship between Δx and Δy can be shown to be 

]1[)(

001 

x

eyyyy



. If Δx < 0, Δy will similarly be negative. However, the magnitude of Δy will be the 

same whether Δx > 0 or Δx < 0 – i.e., the absolute value of Δy does not depend on which equation is used. 
Abt Associates Inc. 4-6 December 2006

In the first part of the epidemiology-based portion of the risk assessment, we estimated

the change in health effect incidence, Δy, associated with a change in O3 concentrations from

current (“as is”) levels of O3 to PRB levels. In the second part, we estimated the change in

health effect incidence associated with a change in O3 concentrations from the levels simulated

to just meet a standard (i.e., the current 8-hour daily maximum standard as well as each of

several alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards) to PRB levels.

To estimate the change in incidence of a health effect associated with a change in O3

concentrations from “as is” levels to PRB levels in an assessment location, we need two time

series of O3 concentrations for that location: (1) hourly “as is” O3 concentrations, and (2) hourly

PRB O3 concentrations. In order to be consistent with the approach generally used in the

epidemiological studies that estimated O3 C-R functions, the (spatial) average ambient O3

concentration on each hour for which measured data are available is deemed most appropriate for

the risk assessment. Consistent with the approach used in the recently completed PM risk

assessment (see EPA, 2005c, Chapter 4, and Abt Associates 2005), a composite monitor data set

was created for each assessment location. The concentration at the composite monitor in a given

hour on a given day is simply the average of the monitor-specific concentrations for that hour on

that day.

Several different exposure metrics, the 24-hour average, the daily 8-hour maximum, and

the daily 1-hour maximum, have been used in epidemiological O3 studies. We therefore

calculated daily changes at the composite monitor in the O3 exposure metric appropriate to a

given C-R function. For example, if a C-R function related daily mortality to daily 1-hour

maximum O3 concentrations, we calculated the daily changes in 1-hour maximum O3

concentrations at the composite monitor. In the first part of the epidemiology-based risk

assessment, in which we estimated risks associated with the recent levels of O3 (“as is” levels)

above PRB levels, this required the following steps (we use the 1-hr daily maximum as an

example in the discussion below):

 Using the monitor-specific input streams of hourly “as is” O3 concentrations, calculate

a stream of hourly “as is” O3 concentrations at the composite monitor. The “as is” O3

concentration at the composite monitor for a given hour on a given day is the average

of the monitor-specific “as is” O3 concentrations for that hour on that day.

 Using the stream of “as is” hourly O3 concentrations at the composite monitor, just

created, calculate the 1-hour maximum “as is” O3 concentration for each day at the

composite monitor.

 Using the monitor-specific input streams of hourly PRB O3 concentrations, calculate a

stream of hourly PRB O3 concentrations at the composite monitor.

 Using the stream of PRB hourly O3 concentrations at the composite monitor, just

created, calculate the 1-hour maximum PRB O3 concentration for each day at the

composite monitor.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-7 December 2006

 For each day, calculate Δx = (the 1-hour maximum “as is” O3 concentration for that

day at the composite monitor) - (the 1-hour maximum PRB O3 concentration for that

day at the composite monitor).8

The calculations for the second part of the epidemiology-based risk assessment, in which we

estimated risks associated with estimated O3 levels that just meet the current and alternative 8-hr

standards above PRB levels were done analogously, using the monitor-specific series of adjusted

hourly concentrations rather than the monitor-specific series of “as is” hourly concentrations.

Similarly, calculations for C-R functions that used a different exposure metric (e.g., the 24-hour

average) were done analogously, using the exposure metric appropriate to the C-R function.

4.1.3 Selection of health endpoints

EPA staff has carefully reviewed the epidemiological evidence evaluated in Chapter 7

and in Chapter 7 Annex as well as in Appendix 8A of the O3 CD. Tables 8A-1 through 8A-5 in

Appendix 8A of the CD summarize the available U.S. and Canadian studies reporting effects of

acute (short-term) O3 exposures for various health effect categories. Given the substantial

number of health endpoints and studies addressing O3 effects, we included in this quantitative O3

risk assessment only the better- understood (in terms of health consequences) health endpoint

categories for which the weight of the evidence supports the inference of a likely causal

relationship between O3 and the effect category. In addition, we included only those categories

for which there are studies that satisfy the study selection criteria discussed below.

Based on its review of the evidence evaluated in the O3 CD, EPA staff included in the

portion of the O3 risk assessment based on epidemiology studies the following broad categories

of health endpoints associated with short-term exposures:

 premature total, respiratory, and cardiorespiratory mortality;

 hospital admissions for respiratory illnesses; and

 asthmatic symptoms in moderate/severe asthmatic children.

4.1.4 Selection of urban areas

Several objectives were considered in selecting potential urban areas for which to

conduct the epidemiology-based O3 risk assessment. An urban area was considered for inclusion

only if it satisfied the following criteria:

 It has sufficient air quality data for the 3-year period (2002-2004).

 It is the same as or close to the location where at least one C-R function for one of

the recommended health endpoints (see above) has been estimated by a study that

satisfies the study selection criteria (see below).

8 Note that the maximum-concentration hour for a given day in the “as is” series is not necessarily the same hour as

the maximum-concentration hour for that day in the PRB series.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-8 December 2006

 For the hospital admission categories, relatively recent location-specific baseline

incidence data, specific to International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes, or

an equivalent illness classification system, are available.9

Because baseline mortality incidence data are available at the county level, this is not a

constraint in the selection of urban areas for the O3 risk assessment. Data on hospital admissions

for recent years, however, specific to ICD codes, are available in some cities but not others. The

availability of this type of incidence data was therefore a consideration in the selection of urban

areas to include in the analysis.

In addition, we took into account the following considerations in selecting from among

those urban locations that satisfied the above selection criteria:

 Locations with more health endpoints were preferred to those with fewer.

 The overall set of urban locations should represent a range of geographic areas and

population demographics among those areas not meeting the current O3 8-hour

daily maximum standard within the U.S.

Based on the selection criteria and additional considerations listed above, we included the

following urban areas in our assessment of risk based on epidemiological studies:

 Atlanta

 Boston

 Chicago

 Cleveland

 Detroit

 Houston

 Los Angeles

 New York City

 Philadelphia

 Sacramento

 St. Louis

 Washington, D.C.

4.1.5 Selection of epidemiological studies

As discussed above, we included in the O3 risk assessment only the better-understood

health effects for which the weight of the evidence supports a likely causal inference. Thus, in

cases where the majority of the available studies did not report a statistically significant

relationship, the effect endpoint was not included. Once it had been determined that a health

endpoint would be included in the analysis, however, inclusion of a study on that health endpoint

was not based on statistical significance. That is, consistent with the approach taken in the

9 The absence of hospital admissions baseline incidence data does not necessarily mean that we cannot use an urban

area in the risk assessment, only that we cannot use it for the hospital admissions endpoint.
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 4-9 

particulate matter (PM) risk assessment (see EPA, 2005c, Chapter 4, and Abt Associates, 2005), 

no credible study on an included health endpoint was excluded from the analysis on the basis of 

lack of statistical significance. 

 

 We applied the following selection criteria for any study that estimated one or more O3

C-R functions for a selected health endpoint in an urban location to be used for the O3 risk 

assessment: 

• It is a published, peer-reviewed study that has been evaluated in the O3 CD and judged 

adequate by EPA staff for purposes of inclusion in this risk assessment based on that 

evaluation. 

• It directly measured, rather than estimated, O3 on a reasonable proportion of the days in 

the study. 

• It either did not rely on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) using the S-Plus software 

to estimate C-R functions or has appropriately re-estimated these functions using revised 

methods.10

• For studies of mortality associated with short-term exposure to O3, the study reported 

results for the O3 season in the location in which the study was conducted.11

4.1.6 A summary of selected health endpoints, urban areas and studies 

 Based on applying the criteria and considerations discussed above, the health endpoints, 

urban locations, and epidemiology studies that were included in the O3 risk assessment are given 

in Table 4-1. 

Table 4-1. Locations and Health Endpoints Included in the O3 Risk Assessment Based on Epidemiological 

Studies* 

Urban Area Premature Mortality Hospital Admissions for 

Respiratory Illnesses 

Asthmatic Symptoms in 

Children 

Atlanta Bell et al. (2004) 

Bell et al. (2004) – 95 cities 

Huang et al. (2004)** 

Huang et al. (2004) – 19 

cities** 

 

Boston Bell et al. (2004) – 95 cities Gent et al. (2003) 

 

10 The GAM S-Plus problem was discovered prior to the recent final PM risk assessment carried out as part of the 

PM NAAQS review. It is discussed in the PM Criteria Document (EPA, 2004), PM Staff Paper (EPA, 2005c), and 

PM Health Risk Assessment Technical Support Document (Abt Associates, 2005). 11 In most locations, the O3 season is generally the warm season; in Houston, Los Angeles, and Sacramento, 

however, the O3 season however, the O3 season is all year. 
Abt Associates Inc. 4-10 December 2006

Urban Area Premature Mortality Hospital Admissions for

Respiratory Illnesses

Asthmatic Symptoms in

Children

Chicago Bell et al. (2004) – 95 cities

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. (2004) – 19 cities

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz (2004) – 14 cities

Cleveland Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. (2004) – 95 cities

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. (2004) – 19 cities

Schwartz et al. (1996)

Detroit Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. (2004) – 95 cities

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. (2004) – 19 cities

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz (2004) – 14 cities

Ito (2003)

Ito (2003)

Houston Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. (2004) – 95 cities

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. (2004) – 19 cities

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz (2004) – 14 cities

Los Angeles Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. (2004) – 95 cities

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. (2004) – 19 cities

Linn et al. (2000)

New York Bell et al. (2004) – 95 cities

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. (2004) – 19 cities

Thurston et al. (1992)

Philadelphia Bell et al. (2004) – 95 cities

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. (2004) – 19 cities

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Sacramento Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. (2004) – 95 cities

St. Louis Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. (2004) – 95 cities

Washington, D.C. Bell et al. (2004) – 95 cities

*Studies listed for a given assessment location reported a C-R function specifically for that location unless

otherwise specified. A study reporting a multi-city C-R function is listed for a given assessment location

only if that location is included among the cities used to estimate the multi-city C-R function.

**This study estimated C-R functions for cardiorespiratory mortality.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-11 December 2006

4.1.7 Selection of concentration-response functions

Studies often report more than one estimated C-R function for the same location

and health endpoint. Sometimes models including different sets of co-pollutants are

estimated in a study; sometimes different lags are estimated. In some cases, two or more

different studies estimated a C-R function for O3 and the same health endpoint in the

same location (this is the case, for example, with O3 and mortality associated with shortterm exposures). For some health endpoints, there are studies that estimated multi-city

O3 C-R functions, while other studies estimated single-city functions.

All else being equal, a C-R function estimated in the assessment location is

preferable to a function estimated elsewhere, since it avoids uncertainties related to

potential differences due to geographic location. That is why the urban areas selected for

the epidemiological studies-based O3 risk assessment are those locations in which C-R

functions have been estimated. There are several advantages, however, to using

estimates from multi-city studies versus studies carried out in single cities. Multi-city

studies are applicable to a variety of settings, since they estimate a central tendency

across multiple locations. When they are estimating a single C-R function based on

several cities, multi-city studies also tend to have more statistical power and provide

effect estimates with relatively greater precision than single city studies due to larger

sample sizes, reducing the uncertainty around the estimated coefficient. In addition,

because selection of cities is done a priori based on criteria such as population size,

multi-city studies are less subject to publication bias than single-city studies. Because

single-city and multi-city studies have different advantages, if a single-city C-R function

has been estimated in a risk assessment location and a multi-city study that includes that

location is also available for the same health endpoint, we used both functions for that

location in the risk assessment.

Some O3 epidemiological studies estimated C-R functions in which O3 was the

only pollutant entered into the health effects model (i.e., single pollutant models) as well

as other C-R functions in which O3 and one or more co-pollutants (e.g., PM, nitrogen

dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide) were entered into the health effects model (i.e.,

multi-pollutant models). To the extent that any of the co-pollutants present in the

ambient air may have contributed to the health effects attributed to O3 in single pollutant

models, risks attributed to O3 might be overestimated where C-R functions are based on

single pollutant models. However, if co-pollutants are highly correlated with O3, their

inclusion in an O3 health effects model can lead to misleading conclusions in identifying

a specific causal pollutant. When collinearity exists, inclusion of multiple pollutants in

models often produces unstable and statistically insignificant effect estimates for both O3

and the co-pollutants. Given that single and multi-pollutant models each have both

potential advantages and disadvantages, with neither type clearly preferable over the

other in all cases, we report risk estimates based on both single- and multi-pollutant

models where both are available.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-12 December 2006

Many daily time-series epidemiological studies estimated C-R functions in which

the O3-related incidence on a given day depends only on same-day O3 concentration or

previous-day O3 concentration (or some variant of those, such as a two-day average

concentration). Such models necessarily assume that the longer pattern of O3 levels

preceding the O3 concentration on a given day does not affect incidence of the health

effect on that day. To the extent that an O3-related health effect on a given day is

affected by O3 concentrations over a longer period of time, then these models would be

mis-specified, and this mis-specification would affect the predictions of daily incidence

based on the model.

A few recent studies (e.g., Bell et al., 2004; Huang et al., 2004) have estimated

distributed lag models, in which health effect incidence is a function of O3 concentrations

on several days – that is, the incidence of the health endpoint on day t is a function of the

O3 concentration on day t, day (t-1), day (t-2), and so forth. Such models can be

reconfigured so that the sum of the coefficients of the different O3 lags in the model can

be used to predict the changes in incidence on several days. For example, corresponding

to a change in O3 on day t in a distributed lag model with 0-day, 1-day, and 2-day lags

considered, the sum of the coefficients of the 0-day, 1-day, and 2-day lagged O3

concentrations can be used to predict the sum of incidence changes on days t, (t+1) and

(t+2). This is explained more fully in Appendix G.

The extent to which time-series studies using single-day O3 concentrations may

underestimate the relationship between short-term O3 exposure and mortality is unknown;

however, there is some evidence, based on analyses of PM10 data, that mortality on a

given day may be influenced by prior PM exposures up to more than a month before the

date of death (Schwartz, 2000b). The extent to which short-term exposure studies

(including those that consider distributed lags) may not capture the possible impact of

long-term exposures to O3 is similarly not known. Currently, there is insufficient

information to adequately adjust for the potential impact of longer-term exposure on

mortality associated with O3 exposures, if any, and this uncertainty should be kept in

mind as one considers the results from the short-term exposure O3 risk assessment.

Epidemiological studies sometimes present several C-R functions, each

incorporating a different lag structure. The question of lags and the problems of correctly

specifying the lag structure in a model have been discussed extensively [see, for example,

the PM CD (EPA, 2004, section 8.4.4); the PM Staff Paper (EPA, 2005c, sections 3.5.5.2

and 4.2.6.3); the O3 CD (EPA, 2006a, section 7.1.3.3); and Schwartz, 2000)]. The O3 CD

notes that “analyzing a large number of lags and simply choosing the largest and most

significant results may bias the air pollution risk estimates away from the null.” (EPA,

2006a, section 7.1.3.3). On the other hand, there is recent evidence (Schwartz, 2000)

that the relationship between PM and health effects may best be described by a

distributed lag (i.e., the incidence of the health effect on day n is influenced by PM

concentrations on day n, day n-1, day n-2 and so on). If this is true for O3 as well, then a

model with only a single lag may result in an underestimation of the multiday effect. For

mortality associated with short-term exposure to O3, Bell et al. (2004) and Huang et al.

(2004) present the results for distributed lag models that take into account exposure from
Abt Associates Inc. 4-13 December 2006

the previous 6 days. When a study reported several single lag models for a health effect,

we based our initial selection of the appropriate lag structure for each health effect on the

overall assessment provided in the O3 CD (EPA, 2006a), based on all studies reporting CR functions for that health effect.

In summary:

 if a single-city C-R function was estimated in a risk assessment location and a

multi-city function which includes that location was also available for the same

health endpoint, we used both functions for that location in the risk assessment;

 risk estimates based on both single- and multi-pollutant models were used when

both were available;

 distributed lag models were used, when available; when a study reported several

single lag models for a health effect, we based our initial selection of the

appropriate lag structure for the health effect on the overall assessment in the O3

CD (EPA, 2006a), based on all studies reporting C-R functions for that health

effect.

The locations, health endpoints, studies, and C-R functions included in that portion of the

risk assessment based on epidemiological studies are summarized in Table 4-2.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-14 December 2006

Table 4-2. Summary of Locations, Concentration-Response Functions, Months Included and Counties Included

Risk

Assessment

Location

Ozone Season in

Risk

Assessment

Location

Study/C-R

Function

Health Endpoint

Other

Pollutants in

Model

Exposure

Metric

Months

Included for CR Functions1

Counties

Included for C-R

Functions

Bell et al. (2004) - 95

cities

non-accidental mortality none224-hr avg. April - October ---

Bell et al. (2004) -

Atlanta

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October Fulton, De Kalb 3

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

PM10 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

NO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

SO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

CO 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Atlanta March - October

Huang et al. (2004) -

Atlanta

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September Fulton, De Kalb

Bell et al. (2004) - 95

cities

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October ---

Gent et al. (2003) Chest tightness in

asthmatic children

none 1-hr max. April - September CT and

Springfield area

of MA4

Boston April -

September

Gent et al. (2003) Chest tightness in

asthmatic children

none 8-hr max. April - September CT and

Springfield area

of MA4
Abt Associates Inc. 4-15 December 2006

Risk

Assessment

Location

Ozone Season in

Risk

Assessment

Location

Study/C-R

Function

Health Endpoint

Other

Pollutants in

Model

Exposure

Metric

Months

Included for CR Functions1

Counties

Included for C-R

Functions

Gent et al. (2003) Chest tightness in

asthmatic children

PM2.5 1-hr max. April - September CT and

Springfield area

of MA4

Gent et al. (2003) Shortness of breath in

asthmatic children

none 1-hr max. April - September CT and

Springfield area

of MA4

Gent et al. (2003) Shortness of breath in

asthmatic children

none 8-hr max. April - September CT and

Springfield area

of MA4

Gent et al. (2003) Wheeze in asthmatic

children

PM2.5 1-hr max. April - September

Bell et al. (2004) -

95 cities

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

PM10 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

NO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

SO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

CO 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Chicago April -

September

Huang et al. (2004) -

Chicago

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September Cook
Abt Associates Inc. 4-16 December 2006

Risk

Assessment

Location

Ozone Season in

Risk

Assessment

Location

Study/C-R

Function

Health Endpoint

Other

Pollutants in

Model

Exposure

Metric

Months

Included for CR Functions1

Counties

Included for C-R

Functions

Schwartz (2004) -

14-city

non-accidental mortality none 1-hr max. May - September ---

Schwartz (2004) -

Chicago

non-accidental mortality none 1-hr max. May - September Cook 5

Bell et al. (2004) - 95

cities

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October ---

Bell et al. (2004) -

Cleveland

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October Cuyahoga

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

PM10 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

NO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

SO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

CO 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

Cleveland

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September Cuyahoga

Cleveland April - October

Schwartz et al.

(1996)

hosp. adms. for resp.

illness

none 1-hr max. “warm season” Cuyahoga

Bell et al. (2004) -

95 cities

Detroit April - October non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October ---

Bell et al. (2004) -

Detroit

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October Wayne
Abt Associates Inc. 4-17 December 2006

Risk

Assessment

Location

Ozone Season in

Risk

Assessment

Location

Study/C-R

Function

Health Endpoint

Other

Pollutants in

Model

Exposure

Metric

Months

Included for CR Functions1

Counties

Included for C-R

Functions

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

PM10 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

NO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

SO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

CO 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

Detroit

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September Wayne

Schwartz (2004) -

14-city

non-accidental mortality none 1-hr max. May - September ---

Schwartz (2004) -

Detroit

non-accidental mortality none 1-hr max. May - September Wayne 5

Ito (2003) – GAM

stringent6

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October Wayne

Ito (2003) – GAM

stringent

respiratory mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October Wayne

Ito (2003) – GAM

stringent

unscheduled hospital

adms. for pnuemonia

none 24-hr avg. April - October Wayne

Ito (2003) – GAM

stringent

unscheduled hospital

adms. for COPD

none 24-hr avg. April - October Wayne

Ito (2003) – GLM7unscheduled hospital

adms. for pnuemonia

none 24-hr avg. April - October Wayne
Abt Associates Inc. 4-18 December 2006

Risk

Assessment

Location

Ozone Season in

Risk

Assessment

Location

Study/C-R

Function

Health Endpoint

Other

Pollutants in

Model

Exposure

Metric

Months

Included for CR Functions1

Counties

Included for C-R

Functions

Ito (2003) – GLM unscheduled hospital

adms. For COPD

none 24-hr avg. April - October Wayne

Bell et al. (2004) - 95

cities

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October ---

Bell et al. (2004) -

Houston

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. All year Harris

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

PM10 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

NO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

SO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

CO 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

Houston

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September Harris

Schwartz (2004) -

14-city

non-accidental mortality none 1-hr max. May - September ---

Houston All year

Schwartz (2004) -

Houston

non-accidental mortality none 1-hr max. May - September Harris 5

Bell et al. (2004) - 95

cities

Los Angeles All year non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October ---

Bell et al. (2004) -

Los Angeles

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. All year Los Angeles
Abt Associates Inc. 4-19 December 2006

Risk

Assessment

Location

Ozone Season in

Risk

Assessment

Location

Study/C-R

Function

Health Endpoint

Other

Pollutants in

Model

Exposure

Metric

Months

Included for CR Functions1

Counties

Included for C-R

Functions

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

PM10 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

NO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

SO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

CO 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

Los Angeles

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September Los Angeles

Linn et al. (2000) unscheduled hosp. adms.

for pulmonary illness

none 24-hr avg. All year;

separately by

season

Los Angeles,

Riverside, San

Bernardino,

Orange8

Bell et al. (2004) - 95

cities

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

PM10 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

NO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

New York April -

September

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

SO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---
Abt Associates Inc. 4-20 December 2006

Risk

Assessment

Location

Ozone Season in

Risk

Assessment

Location

Study/C-R

Function

Health Endpoint

Other

Pollutants in

Model

Exposure

Metric

Months

Included for CR Functions1

Counties

Included for C-R

Functions

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

CO 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

New York

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September Bronx, Kings,

New York,

Richmond,

Queens,

Westchester

Thurston et al.

(1992)

unscheduled hosp. adms.

for respiratory illness

none 1-hr max. June - August Bronx, Kings,

New York,

Richmond,

Queens9

Thurston et al.

(1992)

unscheduled hosp. adms.

for asthma

none 1-hr max. June - August Bronx, Kings,

New York,

Richmond,

Queens

Bell et al. (2004) - 95

cities

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

PM10 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

NO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

SO2 24-hr avg. June - September ---

Philadelphia April - October

Huang et al. (2004) -

19 cities

cardiorespiratory

mortality

CO 24-hr avg. June - September ---
Abt Associates Inc. 4-21 December 2006

Risk

Assessment

Location

Ozone Season in

Risk

Assessment

Location

Study/C-R

Function

Health Endpoint

Other

Pollutants in

Model

Exposure

Metric

Months

Included for CR Functions1

Counties

Included for C-R

Functions

Huang et al. (2004) -

Phila.

cardiorespiratory

mortality

none 24-hr avg. June - September Philadelphia

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. June - August Philadelphia

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

non-accidental mortality TSP, SO2 24-hr avg. June - August Philadelphia

Bell et al. (2004) - 95

cities

Sacramento All year non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October ---

Bell et al. (2004) -

Sacramento

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. All year Sacramento

Bell et al. (2004) - 95

cities

St. Louis April - October non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October ---

Bell et al. (2004) -

St. Louis

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. St. Louis city

(FIPS 29510)

Washington,

D.C.

April - October Bell et al. (2004) - 95

cities

non-accidental mortality none 24-hr avg. April - October ---

1 The months listed here are the months for which the C-R function was estimated. However, all C-R functions were applied in the risk assessment to April –

Sept.

2 The authors report that the results were robust to adjustment for PM10, but do not report the multi-pollutant functions.

3 Counties used by Bell et al. and Huang et al. are provided at http://www.ihapss.jhsph.edu/data/NMMAPS/documentation/counties.htm and in the June 2000

NMMAPS report (Number 94, Part II) are given in Appendix A, Table A.1.

4

Specific counties not given.

5

Personal communication via email (6-12-05) from J. Schwartz.

6 Generalized Additive Model, using a stringent convergence criterion.

7 Generalized Linear Model.

8 Excluding mountain and desert regions of the first three counties.

9 The paper doesn’t list the counties, but notes that, in the case of New York City, surrounding counties were not included; this implies that only the five counties

of which New York City is comprised are included in the analysis. This was confirmed in a personal communication from the author (G. Thurston).
Abt Associates Inc. 4-22 December 2006

4.1.8 Baseline health effects incidence considerations

The most common epidemiologically-based health risk model expresses the

reduction in health risk (y) associated with a given reduction in O3 concentrations (x)

as a percentage of the baseline incidence (y). To accurately assess the impact of changes

in O3 air quality on health risk in the selected urban areas, information on the baseline

incidence of health effects (i.e., the incidence under “as is” air quality conditions) in each

location is therefore needed.

Incidence rates express the occurrence of a disease or event (e.g., asthma episode,

hospital admission, premature death) in a specific period of time, usually per year. Rates

are expressed either as a value per population group (e.g., the number of cases in

Philadelphia County) or a value per number of people (e.g., number of cases per 10,000

population), and may be age and sex specific. Incidence rates vary among geographic

areas due to differences in population characteristics (e.g, age distribution) and factors

promoting illness (e.g., smoking, air pollution levels). The sizes of the populations in the

assessment locations that are relevant to the risk assessment (i.e., the populations for

which the O3 C-R functions are estimated and to which the baseline incidences refer) are

given in Table 4-3.

We obtained estimates of location-specific baseline mortality rates for each of the

O3 risk assessment locations for 2002 from CDC Wonder, an interface for public health

data dissemination from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).12 Rates were calculated

for the specific sets of counties for which C-R functions were estimated. The mortality

rates are derived from U.S. death records and U.S. Census Bureau post-censal population

estimates, and are reported in Table 4-4. National rates are provided from CDC Wonder

for 2002 for comparison. The epidemiological studies used in the risk assessment

reported causes of mortality using the ninth revision of the International Classification of

Diseases (ICD-9) codes. However, the tenth revision has since come out, and baseline

mortality incidence rates for 2002 shown in Table 4-4 use ICD-10 codes. The groupings

of ICD-9 codes used in the epidemiological studies and the corresponding ICD-10 codes

used to calculate year 2002 baseline incidence rates are given in Table 4-5.

12 United States Department of Health and Human Services (US DHHS), Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), Compressed Mortality File (CMF)

compiled from CMF 1968-1988, Series 20, No. 2A 2000, CMF 1989-1998, Series 20, No. 2E 2003 and

CMF 1999-2002, Series 20, No. 2H 2004 on CDC WONDER On-line Database. See

http://wonder.cdc.gov/.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-23 December 2006

Table 4-3. Relevant Population Sizes for O3 Risk Assessment Locations

City Counties Population*

Total Ages 30 Ages  65 Children, Ages ≤ 12, with

moderate/severe asthma**

Atlanta Fulton, DeKalb 1,482,000 --- --- ---

Boston Suffolk 690,000 --- ---

Boston Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Worcester --- --- --- 25,000

Chicago Cook 5,376,000 --- --- ---

Cleveland Cuyahoga 1,394,000 --- 217,000

Detroit Wayne 2,061,000 --- --- ---

Houston Harris 3,400,000 --- --- ---

Los Angeles Los Angeles 9,518,000 --- --- ---

Los Angeles Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, Orange --- 8,378,000 --- ---

New York Bronx, Kings, Queens, New York, Richmond 8,006,000 --- --- ---

New York Bronx, Kings, Queens, New York, Richmond,

Westchester

8,930,000 --- --- ---

Philadelphia Philadelphia 1,517,000 --- --- ---

Sacramento Sacramento 1,223,000 --- --- ---

St. Louis St. Louis City 348,000 --- --- ---

Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. 572,000 --- --- ---

*

Total population and age-specific population estimates taken from the 2000 U.S. Census. Populations are rounded to the nearest thousand. The urban areas

given in this table are those considered in the studies used in the O3 risk assessment, with the exception of the larger Boston area, which is the CSA for Boston

(since the study that estimated a C-R function for respiratory symptoms observed in moderate and severe asthmatic children (ages 0 -12) was conducted in

Springfield, MA and CT).

** Population derived as follows: The populations of children <5 and 5 - 12 in the counties listed were multiplied by corresponding percents of children [in each

age group] in New England with “current asthma” -- 5.1% and 10.7% for the two age groups, respectively (see "The Burden of Asthma in New England."

Asthma Regional Council. March 2006. Table S-2. www.asthmaregionalcouncil.org ). These estimated numbers of asthmatic children were then multiplied by

the estimated percent of asthmatic children using maintenance medications (40%) (obtained via email 4-05-06 from Jeanne Moorman, CDC) and the results were

summed.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-24 December 2006

Table 4-4. Baseline Mortality Rates (per 100,000 Population) for 2002 for O3 Risk Assessment Locations*

Type of Mortality

City Counties (ICD-9 Codes)

Non-accidental

(<800)

Cardiorespiratory

(390-448; 490-496; 487; 480-

486; 507)

Respiratory

(460-519)

Boston Suffolk 736 --- ---

Philadelphia Philadelphia 1,057 242 ---

New York Bronx, Kings, Queens, New

York, Richmond, Westchester

704 199 ---

Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. 942 --- ---

Atlanta Fulton, DeKalb 623 131 ---

St. Louis St. Louis City 1147 --- ---

Chicago Cook 781 189 ---

Houston Harris 533 123 ---

Los Angeles Los Angeles 569 155 ---

Sacramento Sacramento 686 --- ---

Detroit Wayne 913 234 76

Cleveland Cuyahoga 1,058 268 ---

National --- 790 196 80

* Data from United States Department of Health and Human Services (US DHHS), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for

Health Statistics (NCHS), Compressed Mortality File (CMF) compiled from CMF 1968-1988, Series 20, No. 2A 2000, CMF 1989-1998, Series 20, No. 2E 2003

and CMF 1999-2002, Series 20, No. 2H 2004 on CDC WONDER On-line Database. See http://wonder.cdc.gov/.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-25 December 2006

Table 4-5. ICD-9 Codes used in Epidemiological Studies and Corresponding ICD-10 Codes

Causes of Death ICD-9 Codes ICD-10 Codes

Non-accidental <800 A00-R99

Cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496; 487; 480-486;

507

G45.0-G45.2, G45.4-G45.9, G54.0, G93.6,

G93.8, G93.8, G95.1, I00-I13.9, I20.0-I22.9,

I24.1-I64, I67.0-I78.9, M21.9, M30.0-M31.9,

R00.1, R00.8, R01.2, J40-J47, J67, J10-J18,

J69

Respiratory 460-519 J00-J01.9, J02.8-J02.9, J03.8-J64, J66.0-J94.9,

J98.0-J98.9, P28.8, R06.5, R09.1

Hospital admissions studies included in the O3 risk assessment were conducted in

Los Angeles, Cleveland, Detroit, and New York City. Because Thurston et al. (1992)

estimated a linear C-R function for New York City, a baseline incidence rate is not

required to estimate risks. However, a baseline incidence rate is needed to calculate

hospital admissions as a percent of the total (baseline) hospital admissions. Baseline

rates of unscheduled hospital admissions for respiratory illnesses and for asthma in New

York City (the five boroughs) were calculated from the year 2001 data provided to us by

the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative. Baseline rates for Detroit

were calculated from hospitalization data for Wayne County for the year 2000, obtained

from the Michigan Health and Hospital Association in April 2002. Baseline rates of

unscheduled hospital admissions for Los Angeles (Los Angeles, Riverside, San

Bernardino, and Orange Counties) were calculated from patient discharge data for 1999,

obtained from California’s Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development, which

also provided records of hospital admissions for the study by Linn et al. (2000). The

records provided for the Linn study included both ICD codes and All-Patient-Refined

Diagnosis-Related Group (APR-DRG). Because Linn et al. (2000) used diagnosis

categories based on the APR-DRG, we made sure that the records we obtained from

California’s Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development also contained the

APR-DRG so that baseline incidence rates could be calculated for hospital admissions

categories that matched those used in the Linn study. In addition, we used a flag in the

dataset indicating whether an admission was scheduled or unscheduled to ensure that the

rates we calculated were for unscheduled admissions only.

Schwartz et al. (1996) report several percentiles as well as the mean of the

distribution of daily hospital admissions for respiratory illness (ICD-9 codes 460-519)

among people ages 65 and older in Cuyahoga County, which contains Cleveland, Ohio,

during the years 1988-90. The mean daily hospital admissions in this age group in

Cuyahoga County was 22 in 1988-90. To estimate a daily rate, we obtained the

population age 65 and older in Cuyahoga County in 199013 and divided the mean daily

13 1990 U.S. Census, at: http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/BasicFactsServlet
Abt Associates Inc. 4-26 December 2006

hospital admissions for respiratory illness by that population. Baseline incidence rates

for hospital admissions used in the risk assessment are shown in Table 4-6.

Table 4-6. Baseline Rates for Hospital Admissions Used in the O3 Risk Assessment

Rate per 100,000 Relevant Population

Los

Angeles1 New York2 Detroit3 Cleveland4

Relevant Population: Ages 30+ All Ages Ages 65+ Ages 65+

Admissions for:

Pulmonary illness (DRG Codes 75 – 101) –

spring 208 --- --- ---

Pulmonary illness (DRG Codes 75 – 101) –

summer

174 --- --- ---

Respiratory illness (ICD codes 466, 480-486,

490, 491, 492, 493) --- 800 --- ---

Asthma (ICD code 493) --- 327 --- ---

Pneumonia (ICD codes 480-486) --- --- 2,068 ---

COPD (ICD codes 490-496) --- --- 1,593 ---

Respiratory illness ((ICD codes 460-519) --- --- --- 3,632

1 Rates of unscheduled hospital admissions were calculated from patient discharge data for 1999, obtained

from California’s Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development, which also provided records of

hospital admissions for the study by Linn et al. (2000).

2 Rates of unscheduled hospital admissions were calculated from patient discharge data for 2001, obtained

from the New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative.

3 Rates were calculated from hospitalization data for Wayne County for the year 2000, obtained from the

Michigan Health and Hospital Association in April 2002.

4 Based on mean daily hospital admissions for ages 65+ for ICD-9 codes 460-519 -- Table 1 in Schwartz et

al. (1996).

Baseline rates of symptoms among moderate/severe asthmatic children in the

Boston area were estimated by using the median rates of the respiratory symptoms

reported in Table 3 of Gent et al. (2003). Each symptom rate, the percentage of days on

which the symptom occurred, was calculated for each subject by dividing the number of

days of the symptom by the number of days of participation in the study and then

multiplying by 100. Median symptom rates among maintenance medication users for

wheeze, chest tightness, and shortness of breath were 2.8%, 1.2%, and 1.5% of days,

respectively.

4.1.9 Addressing uncertainty and variability

Any estimation of “as is” risk and reduced risks associated with just meeting the

current O3 standards should address both the variability and uncertainty that generally

underlie such an analysis. In Section 3.1.5 we discussed the difference between

uncertainty and variability, and gave examples of each. The discussion in that section is
Abt Associates Inc. 4-27 December 2006

applicable to the uncertainty and variability to be addressed in the portion of the risk

assessment based on epidemiological studies as well.

As with the controlled human exposure studies portion of the risk assessment, the

epidemiology-based portion incorporates some of the variability in key inputs to the

analysis by using location-specific inputs (e.g., location-specific population data and

baseline incidence rates). Although spatial variability in these key inputs across all U.S.

locations has not been fully characterized, variability across the selected locations is

imbedded in the analysis by using, to the extent possible, inputs specific to each urban

area. As in the controlled human exposure studies portion of the risk assessment,

temporal variability is more difficult to address, because the risk assessment focuses on

some unspecified time in the future. To minimize the degree to which values of inputs to

the analysis may be different from the values of those inputs at that unspecified time, we

have used recent input data – for example, year 2004 and year 2002 air quality data for all

of the urban locations, and recent population data (from the 2000 Census). However,

future changes in inputs have not been predicted (e.g., future population levels). To

address the impact of variability in O3 concentrations from one year to another, we

carried out the risk assessment for two years separately – 2002 and 2004 – which

represent generally upper- and lower-ends of overall O3 concentrations during the threeyear period under consideration.

A number of important sources of uncertainty in the epidemiology-based portion

of the risk assessment were addressed where possible. The following are among the

major sources of uncertainty:

 Uncertainties related to estimating the C-R functions, including

o uncertainty about the extent to which the association between O3 and the

health endpoint actually reflects a causal relationship.

o uncertainty surrounding estimates of O3 coefficients in C-R functions used

in the analyses.

o uncertainty about the specification of the model (including the shape of

the C-R relationship), particularly whether or not there are thresholds

below which no response occurs.

o uncertainty related to the transferability of O3 C-R functions from study

locations and time periods to the locations and time periods selected for

the risk assessment. A C-R function in a study location may not provide

an accurate representation of the C-R relationship in the analysis

location(s) and time periods because of

the possible role of associated co-pollutants, which vary from

location to location and over time, in influencing O3 risk,
Abt Associates Inc. 4-28 December 2006

variations in the relationship of total ambient exposure (both

outdoor and ambient contributions to indoor exposure) to ambient

monitoring in different locations (e.g, due to differences in air

conditioning use in different regions of the U.S. or changes in

usage over time),

differences in population characteristics (e.g., the proportions of

members of sensitive subpopulations) and population behavior

patterns across locations or over time in the same location.

 Uncertainties related to the air quality data, including

o the adjustment procedure that was used to simulate just meeting the

current and alternative O3 standards.

o uncertainties about estimated background concentrations for each location.

 Uncertainties associated with use of baseline health effects incidence information

that is not specific to the analysis locations.

The specific sources of uncertainty in the O3 risk assessment are described in detail below

and are summarized in Table 4-7.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-29 December 2006

Table 4-7. Key Uncertainties in the Risk Assessment

Uncertainty Comments

Causality Statistical association does not prove causation. However, the risk assessment considers only

health endpoints for which the overall weight of the evidence supports the assumption that O3 is

likely causally related based on the totality of the health effects evidence.

Empirically estimated C-R relations Because C-R functions are empirically estimated, there is uncertainty surrounding these

estimates. Omitted confounding variables could cause bias in the estimated O3 coefficients.

However, including potential confounding variables that are highly correlated with one another

can lead to unstable estimators. Both single- and multi-pollutant models were used where

available. In addition, for those studies which provided both single-location and multiplelocation estimates, single-location estimates were adjusted, using a Bayesian adjustment

procedure, to make more efficient use of the data in the study. This is explained more fully

below.

Functional form of C-R relation Statistical significance of coefficients in an estimated C-R function does not necessarily mean

that the mathematical form of the function is the best model of the true C-R relation.

Lag structure of C-R relation There is some evidence that a distributed lag might be the most appropriate model for O3 effects

associated with short-term exposures. Most studies, however, included only a single lag term in

their models. (Two important exceptions are Bell et al. (2004) and Huang et al. (2004).) Omitted

lags could cause an underestimation in the predicted incidence associated with a given reduction

in O3 concentrations.

Transferability of C-R relations C-R functions may not provide an adequate representation of the C-R relationship in times and

places other than those in which they were estimated. For example, populations in the analysis

locations may have more or fewer members of sensitive subgroups than locations in which

functions were derived, which would introduce additional uncertainty related to the use of a

given C-R function in the analysis location. However, in the majority of cases, the risk

assessment relies on C-R functions estimated from studies conducted in the same location.

Extrapolation of C-R relations

beyond the range of observed O3

data

A C-R relationship estimated by an epidemiological study may not be valid at concentrations

outside the range of concentrations observed during the study.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-30 December 2006

Uncertainty Comments

Adequacy of ambient O3 monitors

as surrogate for population

exposure

Possible differences in how the spatial variation in ambient O3 levels across each urban area are

characterized in the original epidemiological studies compared to the more recent ambient O3

data used to characterize current air quality would contribute to uncertainty in the health risk

estimates.

Adjustment of air quality

distributions to simulate just

meeting current O3 standards.

The pattern and extent of daily reductions in O3 concentrations that would result if the current O3

standard or alternative O3 standards were just met is not known. There remains uncertainty about

the shape of the air quality distribution of hourly levels upon just meeting an O3 standard that will

depend on future air quality control strategies.

Background O3 concentrations The calculation of O3 risk associated with “as is” air quality and of reduced risks that would

result if the current or an alternative standard were just met requires as inputs the background O3

concentrations in each of the assessment locations. Background concentrations for each location

were estimated based on the GEOS-CHEM model simulations for all hours of an “average day”

in a given month, for each of the months from April through September. There is uncertainty

about these estimated background levels.

Baseline health effects data Data on baseline incidence is uncertain for a variety of reasons. For example, location- and agegroup-specific baseline rates may not be available in all cases. Baseline incidence may change

over time for reasons unrelated to O3.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-31 December 2006

We handled uncertainties in the risk assessment as follows:

 Limitations and assumptions in estimating risks and reduced risks are clearly

stated and explained.

 The uncertainty resulting from the statistical uncertainty associated with the

estimate of the O3 coefficient in a C-R function was characterized either by

confidence intervals or by Bayesian credible intervals around the corresponding

point estimate of risk. Confidence intervals and credible intervals express the

range within which the true risk is likely to fall if the uncertainty surrounding the

O3 coefficient estimate were the only uncertainty in the analysis. They do not, for

example, reflect the uncertainty concerning whether the O3 coefficients in the

study location and the assessment location are the same.

 Where possible, we made use of multi-city information to adjust location-specific

estimates to make more efficient use of the data (see Section 4.1.9.1.2 below).

Although the O3 risk assessment considered mortality as well as morbidity health

effects, not all health effects that may result from O3 exposure were included. Only those

for which there was sufficient epidemiological evidence from studies that met the study

selection criteria (see Section 4.1.5) were included in the risk assessment. Other health

effects reported to be associated with exposure to O3 (e.g., increased doctor’s visits,

increased emergency department visits) are considered qualitatively in the Staff Paper.

Thus, it is important to recognize that the O3 risk assessment represents only a portion of

the health risks associated with O3 exposures.

In addition, we limited application of a C-R function to only that portion of the

population on which estimation of the function was based. For example, unscheduled

hospital admissions for pneumonia were examined in Ito (2003) for people ages 65 and

older. It is likely that the effect of O3 on hospital admissions for these illnesses and

conditions does not begin at age 65; however, data are not available to estimate the

number of cases avoided for younger age groups for the urban area examined by Ito

(2003). Therefore, some number of potentially avoided health effects was not captured in

this analysis.

4.1.9.1 Concentration-response functions

The C-R function is a key element of the O3 risk assessment. The quality of the

risk assessment depends, in part, on (1) whether the C-R functions used in the risk

assessment are good estimates of the relationship between the population health response

and ambient O3 concentration in the study locations, (2) how applicable these functions

are to the analysis periods and locations, and (3) the extent to which these relationships

apply beyond the range of the O3 concentrations from which they were estimated. These

issues are discussed in the subsections below.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-32 December 2006

4.1.9.1.1 Uncertainty associated with the appropriate model form

The relationship between a health endpoint and O3 can be characterized in terms

of the form of the function describing the relationship – e.g., linear, log-linear, or logistic

– and the value of the O3 coefficient in that function. Although most epidemiological

studies estimated O3 coefficients in log-linear models, there is still substantial uncertainty

about the correct functional form of the relationship between O3 and various health

endpoints – especially at the low end of the range of O3 values, where data are generally

too sparse to discern possible thresholds. While there are likely biological thresholds in

individuals for specific health responses, the available epidemiological studies generally

have not supported or refuted the existence of thresholds at the population level for O3

exposures within the range of air quality observed in the studies. A recent study, Bell et

al. (2006), specifically addressed the question of thresholds, however, and found no

evidence to support the threshold hypothesis. Applying several different statistical

approaches specifically designed to address the threshold issue to data on air pollution,

weather and mortality for 98 U.S. cities from 1987 to 2000, they found that “even low

levels of tropospheric ozone are associated with increased risk of premature mortality”

(Bell et al., 2006).

4.1.9.1.2 Uncertainty associated with the estimated concentration-response

functions in the study locations

The uncertainty associated with an estimate of the O3 coefficient in a C-R

function reported by a study depends on the sample size and the study design. The O3

CD has evaluated the substantial body of O3 epidemiological studies. In general, critical

considerations in evaluating the design of an epidemiological study include the adequacy

of the measurement of ambient O3, the adequacy of the health effects incidence data, and

the consideration of potentially important health determinants and potential confounders

and effect modifiers such as:

 other pollutants;

 exposure to other health risks, such as smoking and occupational exposure; and

 demographic characteristics, including age, sex, socioeconomic status, and access to

medical care.

The possible confounding effects of copollutants, including other criteria air

pollutants, has often been noted as a problem in air pollutant risk assessments,

particularly when these other pollutants are highly correlated with the pollutant of

interest. O3 is generally not highly correlated with other criteria air pollutants, although it

may be more highly correlated with fine particles, especially during the summer months.

A recent meta-analysis of time-series studies of O3 and mortality, however, found that the

effect of O3 on mortality was insensitive to whether particulate matter was included in the
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 4-33 

model (Bell et al., 2005). The issue of possible confounding by copollutants is discussed 

in more detail in Section 3.4.2.2 of the Staff Paper (EPA, 2007a). 

 The selection of studies included in the O3 risk assessment was guided by the 

evaluations in the O3 CD. One of the criteria for selecting studies addresses the adequacy 

of the measurement of ambient O3. This criterion was that O3 was directly measured, 

rather than estimated, on a reasonable proportion of the days in the study. This criterion 

was designed to minimize error in the estimated O3 coefficients in the C-R functions used 

in the risk assessment. 

 Ambient concentrations at central monitors, however, may not provide a good 

representation of personal exposures. The O3 CD (EPA, 2006a) identifies the following 

three components to exposure measurement error: (1) the use of average population 

rather than individual exposure data; (2) the difference between average personal ambient 

exposure and ambient concentrations at central monitoring sites; and (3) the difference 

between true and measured ambient concentrations (O3 CD, p. 7-7). The O3 CD notes 

that “these components are expected to have different effects, with the first and third 

likely not causing bias in a particular direction (“nondifferential error”) but increasing the 

standard error, while the second component may result in downward bias, or attenuation 

of the risk estimate” (O3 CD, pp. 7-7 to 7-8). While a concentration-response function 

may understate the effect of personal exposures to O3 on the incidence of a health effect, 

however, it will give an unbiased estimate of the effect of ambient concentrations on the 

incidence of the health effect, if the ambient concentrations at monitoring stations 

provide an unbiased estimate of the ambient concentrations to which the population is 

exposed. In this case, if O3 is actually the causal agent, the understatement of the impact 

of personal exposures isn’t an issue (since EPA regulates ambient concentrations rather 

than personal exposures). If O3 is not the causal agent, however, then there is a problem 

of confounding copollutants or other factors, so that reducing ambient O3 concentrations 

might not result in the expected reductions in the health effect. A more comprehensive 

discussion of exposure measurement is given in Section 3.4.2.1 of EPA’s Staff Paper 

(EPA, 2007a). 

 To the extent that a study did not address all relevant factors (i.e., all factors that 

affect the health endpoint), there is uncertainty associated with the C-R function 

estimated in that study, beyond that reflected in the confidence or credible interval. It 

may result in either over- or underestimates of risk associated with ambient O3

concentrations in the location in which the study was carried out. Techniques for 

addressing the problem of confounding factors and other study design issues have 

improved over the years, however, and the epidemiological studies currently available for 

use in the O3 risk assessment provide a higher level of confidence in study quality than 

ever before. 

 When a study is conducted in a single location, the problem of possible 

confounding co-pollutants may be particularly difficult, if co-pollutants are highly 

correlated in the study location. Single-pollutant models, which omit co-pollutants, may 

produce overestimates of the O3 effect, if some of the effects of other pollutants (omitted 
Abt Associates Inc. 4-34 December 2006

from the model) are falsely attributed to O3. Statistical estimates of an O3 effect based on

a multi-pollutant model can be more uncertain, and even statistically insignificant, if the

co-pollutants included in the model are highly correlated with O3. As a result of these

considerations, we report risk estimates based on both single-pollutant and multipollutant models, when both are reported by a study.

As noted above, the uncertainty resulting from the statistical uncertainty

associated with the estimate of the O3 coefficient in a C-R function was characterized

either by confidence intervals (if the coefficient was estimated using a classical statistical

approach) or by Bayesian credible intervals (if the coefficient was estimated using a

Bayesian approach) around the corresponding point estimate of risk.

Two studies, Bell et al. (2004) and Huang et al. (2004), reported both multilocation and single-location C-R functions in a variety of locations, using a Bayesian

two-stage hierarchical model. In these cases, the single-location estimates can be

adjusted to make more efficient use of the data from all locations. The resulting

“shrinkage” estimates are so called because they “shrink” the location-specific estimates

towards the overall mean estimate (the mean of the posterior distribution of the multilocation C-R function coefficient). The greater the uncertainty about the estimate of the

location-specific coefficient relative to the estimate of between-study heterogeneity, the

more the location-specific estimate is “pulled in” towards the overall mean estimate. Bell

et al. (2004) calculated these shrinkage estimates, which were presented in Figure 2 of

that paper. These location-specific shrinkage estimates, and their adjusted standard errors

were provided to us by the study authors and were used in the risk assessment.

The location-specific estimates reported in Table 1 of Huang et al. (2004) are not

“shrinkage” estimates. However, the study authors provided us with the posterior

distribution for the heterogeneity parameter, , for their distributed lag model, shown in

Figure 4(b) of their paper. Given this posterior distribution, and the original locationspecific estimates presented in Table 1 of their paper, we calculated location-specific

“shrinkage” estimates using a Bayesian method described in DuMouchel (1994) (see

Section B-3 in Appendix B for a complete explanation of the calculation of these

“shrinkage” estimates). As with the shrinkage estimates presented in Bell et al. (2004),

the resulting Bayesian shrinkage estimates use the data from all of the locations

considered in the study more efficiently than do the original location-specific estimates.

The calculation of these shrinkage estimates is thus one way to address the relatively

large uncertainty surrounding estimates of coefficients in location-specific C-R functions.

Several recent meta-analyses (Bell et al. 2005; Levy et al., 2005; and Ito et al.,

2005) have addressed the impact of various factors on estimates of mortality associated

with short-term exposures to O3. We reviewed these meta-analyses for additional

information that might be used to assist in characterizing the uncertainties associated with

risk estimates for this health outcome. Overall, the meta-analyses helped delineate the

sources of heterogeneity in the estimated relationships between mortality and short-term

exposure to O3, the robustness of these estimated relationships to inclusion of PM in the

model, the relative importance of 0-day lag among the different lag structures considered,
Abt Associates Inc. 4-35 December 2006

and the indication of publication bias in single-city studies and meta-analyses of such

studies. Because of this last issue in particular, while the meta-analyses provided insight

into relevant issues, we considered multi-city studies preferable for use in the risk

assessment.

4.1.9.1.3 Applicability of concentration-response functions in different locations

As described in Section 4.1.4, risk assessment locations were selected on the basis

of where C-R functions have been estimated, to avoid the uncertainties associated with

applying a C-R function estimated in one location to another location. However, multicity C-R functions were also applied to any risk assessment location contained in the set

of locations used to estimate the C-R function. The accuracy of the results based on a

multi-location C-R function rests in part on how well this multi-location C-R function

represents the relationship between ambient O3 and the given population health response

in the individual cities involved in the study.

The relationship between ambient O3 concentration and the incidence of a given

health endpoint in the population (the population health response) depends on (1) the

relationship between ambient O3 concentration and personal exposure to ambientgenerated O3 and (2) the relationship between personal exposure to ambient-generated O3

and the population health response. Both of these are likely to vary to some degree from

one location to another.

The relationship between ambient O3 concentration and personal exposure to

ambient-generated O3 will depend on patterns of behavior, such as the amount of time

spent outdoors, as well as on factors affecting the extent to which ambient-generated O3

infiltrates into indoor environments. The relationship between personal exposure to

ambient-generated O3 and the population health response will depend on the population

exposed.

Exposed populations differ from one location to another in characteristics that are

likely to affect their susceptibility to O3 air pollution. For instance, people with preexisting conditions such as chronic bronchitis are probably more susceptible to the

adverse effects of exposure to O3, and populations vary from one location to another in

the prevalence of specific diseases. Also, some age groups may be more susceptible than

others, and population age distributions also vary from one location to another. Closely

matching populations observed in studies to the populations of the assessment locations is

not possible for many characteristics (for example, smoking status, workplace exposure,

socioeconomic status, and the prevalence of highly susceptible subgroups).

Other pollutants may also play a role in either causing or modifying health effects,

either independently or in combination with O3 (see Section 8.1.3.2 in the 2004 PM CD

and Section 7.1.3.5 in the O3 CD). Inter-locational differences in these pollutants could

also induce differences in the O3 C-R relationship between one location and another.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-36 December 2006

In summary, the C-R relationship is most likely not the same everywhere. Even if

the relationship between personal exposure to ambient-generated O3 and population

health response were the same everywhere, the relationship between ambient

concentrations and personal exposure to ambient-generated O3 differs among locations.

Similarly, even if the relationship between ambient concentrations and personal exposure

to ambient-generated O3 were the same everywhere, the relationship between personal

exposure to ambient-generated O3 and population health response may differ among

locations. In either case, the C-R relationship would differ.

4.1.9.1.4 Extrapolation beyond observed air quality levels

Although a C-R function describes the relationship between ambient O3 and a

given health endpoint for all possible O3 levels (potentially down to zero), the estimation

of a C-R function is based on real ambient O3 values that are limited to the range of O3

concentrations in the location in which the study was conducted. Thus, uncertainty in the

shape of the estimated C-R function increases considerably outside the range of O3

concentrations observed in the study.

Because we are interested in the effects of anthropogenic O3, in this initial

analysis, the O3 risk assessment assumes that the estimated C-R functions adequately

represent the true C-R relationship down to PRB O3 levels in the assessment locations.

Because those studies that reported the minimum O3 levels observed all reported levels

below PRB O3 levels, the problem of extrapolation to levels below those air quality levels

observed in a study does not arise.

The C-R relationship may also be less certain towards the upper end of the

concentration range being considered in a risk assessment, particularly if the O3

concentrations in the assessment location exceed the O3 concentrations observed in the

study location. Even though it may be reasonable to model the C-R relationship as loglinear over the ranges of O3 concentrations typically observed in epidemiological studies,

it may not be log-linear over the entire range of O3 levels at the locations considered in

the O3 risk assessment.

4.1.9.2 The air quality data

4.1.9.2.1 Adequacy of O3 air quality data

The method of averaging data from monitors across a metropolitan area in the risk

assessment is similar to the methods used to characterize ambient air quality in most of

the epidemiology studies. Ideally, the measurement of average hourly ambient O3

concentrations in the study location is unbiased. In this case, unbiased risk predictions in

the assessment location depend, in part, on an unbiased measurement of average hourly

ambient O3 concentrations in the assessment location as well. If, however, the

measurement of average hourly ambient O3 concentrations in the study location is biased,

unbiased risk predictions in the assessment location are still possible if the measurement

of average hourly ambient O3 concentrations in the assessment location incorporates the
Abt Associates Inc. 4-37 December 2006

same bias as exists in the study location measurements. Because this is not known,

however, the errors in the O3 measurements in the assessment locations are a source of

uncertainty in the risk assessment.

O3 air quality data were not available for all hours of the ozone season in the year

chosen for the risk assessment in all of the assessment locations. Missing O3

concentrations were filled in, as described in section 3.2 of the Exposure Assessment

TSD.

The results of the risk assessment are generalizable to other years only to the

extent that ambient O3 levels in the available data are similar to ambient O3 levels in

those locations in the other years. A substantial difference between O3 levels in the year

used in the risk assessment and O3 levels in the other years could imply a substantial

difference in predicted incidences of health effects. For the initial phase of the

assessment, we selected two years, 2002 and 2004, in the 2002 – 2004 three-year period.

O3 levels in 2004 in most of the 12 urban areas were somewhat lower than in other recent

years, due to both meteorological conditions that were not conducive to O3 formation and

lower emissions of NOx due to newly implemented regional controls on major power

plants in the eastern U.S. O3 levels in 2002 were generally higher than in either 2003 or

2004 except in Detroit, Houston and Los Angeles. For 5 urban areas (Atlanta, Chicago,

Houston, Los Angeles, New York) additional risk estimates were developed based on

2003 air quality data.

4.1.9.2.2 Estimation of PRB O3 concentrations

The PRB O3 concentrations that were used in the risk assessment are monthly

averaged GEOS-CHEM model predictions, and the measured ambient O3 concentrations

are frequently lower than these PRB values. After assessing the uncertainty of the

GEOS-Chem model predictions, the O3 CD estimates that “the PRB ozone values

reported by Fiore et al. (2003a) for afternoon surface air over the United States are likely

10 ppbv too high in the southeast in summer, and accurate within 5 ppbv in other regions

and seasons” (O3 CD, page 3-53). This raises the question of how best to deal with this

in our estimation of risk above PRB. We considered two different approaches, described

in Appendix F, calculating the bias expected in each case. As described in Appendix F,

the relative magnitudes of the expected biases from the two approaches depends on

whether we have overestimated or underestimated the monthly average PRB. The

frequency with which the measured ambient O3 concentrations are lower than our

estimated PRB values suggests that these monthly PRB averages were overestimated.

Fiore et al. (2002a) noted that the GEOS-CHEM model tends to overpredict O3

concentrations in highly populated coastal areas, lending additional support for this

hypothesis in Houston, where the frequency of estimated PRB concentrations above

monitored “as is” concentrations was the greatest. On the assumption that monthly PRB

averages were overestimated, the lowest-bias method to estimating risk above PRB is to

set negative O3 (= “as is” O3 concentration – PRB O3 concentration) to zero. We believe

this approach minimizes bias.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-38 December 2006

4.1.9.2.3 Simulation of reductions in O3 concentrations to just meet the current or

an alternative standard

The pattern of hourly O3 concentrations that would result if the current O3

standard or an alternative standard were just met in any of the assessment locations is, of

course, not known. This therefore adds uncertainty to estimates of reduced risk when O3

concentrations just meet a standard.

Although the initial phase of health risk assessment uses air quality data from two

years, 2002 and 2004, it simulates just attaining a standard in each year separately, since

we are estimating annual reduced health risks. Design values based on the most recent

three-year period available are used to determine the amount of adjustment to apply to

each of these years. Because O3 levels in 2004 were, in most locations, the lowest of the

three most recent years, applying a design value based on the most recent three-year

period available only to O3 levels in 2004 would result in lower estimates of remaining

risk than would be the case if either of the other two years of the three-year period were

evaluated in the assessment. Conversely, because O3 levels in 2002 were, in most

locations, the highest of the three most recent years, applying the same design value only

to O3 levels in 2002 would result in higher estimates of remaining risk than would be the

case if either of the other two years of the three-year period were evaluated in the

assessment. Using both a year of generally higher O3 levels (2002) and a year of

generally lower O3 levels (2004) provides plausible ranges of estimates of annual

remaining risk and reductions in health risks in each location.

4.1.9.3 Baseline health effects incidence rates

Most of the C-R functions used in the O3 risk assessment are log-linear (see

equation 4-1 in Section 4.1.1). Given this functional form, the percent change in

incidence of a health effect corresponding to a change in O3 depends only on the change

in O3 levels (and not the actual value of either the initial or final O3 concentration). This

percent change is multiplied by a baseline incidence, y0, in order to determine the change

in health effects incidence, as shown in equation (4-3) in Section 4.1.1:





y y e

x

 



0

1[ ] 

Predicted changes in incidence therefore depend on the baseline incidence of the health

effect.

4.1.9.3.1 Quality of incidence data

County-specific incidence data were available for mortality for all counties. We

have also obtained hospital admissions baseline incidence data for all the urban areas for

which we have hospital admissions C-R functions for O3 (Detroit, Los Angeles, and

Cleveland). This is clearly preferable to using non-local data, such as national or regional

incidence rates. As with any health statistics, however, misclassification of disease,

errors in coding, and difficulties in correctly assigning residence location are potential
Abt Associates Inc. 4-39 December 2006

problems. These same potential sources of error are present in most epidemiological

studies. In most cases, the reporting institutions and agencies utilize standard forms and

codes for reporting, and quality control is monitored.

Data on hospital admissions are actually hospital discharge data rather than

admissions data. Because of this, the date associated with a given hospital stay is the date

of discharge rather than the date of admissions. Therefore, there may be some hospital

admissions in an assessment location that are within the O3 season that are not included

in the baseline incidence rate, if the date of discharge was after the ozone season ended,

even though the date of admissions was within the ozone season. Similarly, there may be

some hospital admissions that preceded the O3 season that are included in the baseline

incidence rate because the date of discharge was within the ozone season. This is a very

minor problem, however, partly because the percentage of such cases is likely to be very

small, and partly because the error at the beginning of the O3 season (i.e., admissions that

should not have been included but were) will largely cancel the error at the end of the O3

season (i.e., admissions that should have been included but were not).

Another minor uncertainty surrounding the hospital admissions baseline incidence

rates arises from the fact that these rates are based on the reporting of hospitals within

each of the assessment counties. Hospitals report the numbers of ICD code-specific

discharges in a given year. If people from outside the county use these hospitals, and/or

if residents of the county use hospitals outside the county, these rates will not accurately

reflect the numbers of county residents who were admitted to the hospital for specific

illnesses during the year, the rates that are desired for the risk assessment. Once again,

however, this is likely to be a very minor problem because the health conditions studied

tend to be acute events that require immediate hospitalization, rather than planned

hospital stays.

Regardless of the data source, if actual incidence rates are higher than the

incidence rates used, risks will be underestimated. If actual incidence rates are lower

than the incidence rates used, then risks will be overestimated.

Both morbidity and mortality rates change over time for various reasons. One of

the most important of these is that population age distributions change over time. The old

and the extremely young are more susceptible to many health problems than is the

population as a whole. The most recent available data were used in the risk assessment.

However, the average age of the population in many locations will increase as postWorld War II children age. Consequently, the baseline incidence rates for some

endpoints may rise, resulting in an increase in the number of cases attributable to any

given level of O3 pollution. Alternatively, areas which experience rapid in-migration, as

is currently occurring in the South and West, may tend to have a decreasing mean

population age and corresponding changes in incidence rates and risk. Temporal changes

in incidence are relevant to both morbidity and mortality endpoints. However, recent

data were used in all cases, so temporal changes are not expected to be a large source of

uncertainty.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-40 December 2006

4.1.9.3.2 Lack of daily health effects incidence rates

Both ambient O3 levels and the daily health effects incidence rates corresponding

to ambient O3 levels vary somewhat from day to day. Those analyses based on C-R

functions estimated by short-term exposure studies calculate daily changes in incidence

and sum them over the days of the O3 season to predict a total change in health effect

incidence during the O3 season (standardized in this analysis to April through

September). However, only annual baseline incidence rates are available. Average daily

baseline incidence rates, necessary for short-term daily C-R functions, were calculated by

dividing the annual rate by the number of days in the year for which the baseline

incidence rates were obtained. To the extent that O3 affects health, however, actual

incidence rates would be expected to be somewhat higher than average on days with high

O3 concentrations; using an average daily incidence rate would therefore result in

underestimating the changes in incidence on such days. Similarly, actual incidence rates

would be expected to be somewhat lower than average on days with low O3

concentrations; using an average daily incidence rate would therefore result in

overestimating the changes in incidence on low O3 days. Both effects would be expected

to be small, however, and should largely cancel one another out.

4.2 Results

The results of the assessment of health risks associated with “as is” O3

concentrations (representing levels measured in a recent year) over PRB levels are

presented in Section 4.2.1. The assessment of health risks associated with 2004 and 2002

“as is” O3 concentrations over PRB levels for all of the assessment locations are

presented in Section 4.2.1.1. The mortality-specific results associated with 2003 “as is”

O3 concentrations are presented, for a subset of five locations (Atlanta, Chicago,

Houston, Los Angeles, and New York), in Section 4.2.1.2.

The results of the assessment of the reduced health risks associated with O3

concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour daily maximum standard are presented in

Section 4.2.2. The results for all locations for the current standard and the original set of

seven standards, based on 2002 and 2004 air quality data, are presented in Section

4.2.2.1. The results for the five locations listed above for the current standard and five

alternative standards, based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality data, are presented in

Section 4.2.2.2.

In both portions of the risk assessment, with the exception of respiratory

symptoms-days, all estimated incidences were rounded to the nearest whole number, and

all estimated incidences per 100,000 relevant population and all percentages were

rounded to one decimal place. Estimated incidences of respiratory symptom-days and

corresponding incidences per 100,000 relevant population were rounded to the nearest

100. These rounding conventions are not intended to imply confidence in that level of

precision, but rather to avoid the confusion that can result when a greater amount of

rounding is used (for example, when the central tendency estimate and both the lower and
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 4-41 

upper bounds of the 95 confidence or credible interval of incidence per 100,000 relevant 

population are all less than 0.5.) 

There is uncertainty surrounding all estimates of incidence associated with “as is” 

O3 concentrations in any location. Because we had to simulate the profiles of O3 

concentrations that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour daily maximum O3 

standards in each location, there is additional uncertainty surrounding estimates of the 

reduced incidence associated with O3 concentrations that just meet these O3 standards. 

We tried to minimize the extent of this uncertainty by avoiding the application of a C-R 

function estimated in one location to another location as much as possible. As discussed 

in Section 4.1.9, however, there are other sources of uncertainty. The uncertainty 

surrounding risk estimates resulting from the statistical uncertainty of the O3 coefficients 

in the C-R functions used is characterized by ninety-five percent confidence or credible 

intervals around estimates of incidence, incidence per 100,000 relevant population, and 

the percent of total incidence that is O3-related. In some cases, the lower bound of a 

confidence interval falls below zero. This does not imply that additional exposure to O3

has a beneficial effect, but only that the estimated O3 coefficient in the C-R function was 

not statistically significantly different from zero. Lack of statistical significance could 

mean that there is no relationship between O3 and the health endpoint or it could mean 

that there wasn’t sufficient statistical power to detect a relationship that exists. 

Conversely, statistical significance does not prove causation. The case for a causal 

relationship between O3 and a health endpoint rests on a variety of types of supporting 

evidence, and overall confidence in such a causal relationship varies substantially across 

health endpoints that have been associated with ambient O3, as illustrated in Figure 3-5 of 

the Staff Paper (EPA, 2007a). 

4.2.1 Assessment of the health risks associated with “as is” O3 concentrations in 

excess of policy relevant background levels 

4.2.1.1 Assessment of the health risks associated with 2004 and 2002 “as is” O3

concentrations in excess of policy relevant background levels 

 The results of the assessment of mortality risks associated with “as is” O3

concentrations (representing levels measured in 2004 and in 2002 for all of the 

assessment locations are summarized across urban areas in Figures 4-2a and b through 4-

8a and b, and in Tables 4-8 and 4-11. Figures 4-2a and b through 4-8a and b show results 

expressed as percent of total incidence. The corresponding figures showing results 

expressed as number of cases per 100,000 relevant population are given in Appendix D. 

Figures 4-2a through 4-8a show results based on year 2004 air quality data; Figures 4-2b 

through 4-8b show results based on 2002 air quality data. Only one study, Ito (2003) for 

hospital admissions in Detroit, provided different lag models. The results from these 

different lag models are shown in Figures 4-6a and b. All results are for health risks 

associated with short-term exposures to O3 concentrations in excess of PRB levels from 

April through September. 

 Although we carried out the analysis in each of the assessment locations, to 

reduce the number of tables in this section of the report, we selected one location (New 
Abt Associates Inc. 4-42 December 2006

York City) to include here for illustrative purposes. Tables 4-12 and 4-13 show results in

New York for health endpoints associated with short-term exposure to “as is” O3

concentrations in excess of estimated PRB concentrations for 2004 and 2002 air quality

data, respectively. Results for the other locations corresponding to those shown for New

York in Tables 4-12 and 4-13 are shown in Appendix D, in Tables D-1 through D-22.

The central tendency estimates in all of the figures and in Tables 4-8 through 4-13

and D-1 through D-22 are based on the O3 coefficients estimated in the studies, or, in the

case of the location-specific estimates from Huang et al. (2004), on “shrinkage” estimates

based on the O3 coefficients estimated in the study (see Section 4.1.9.1.2). The ranges are

based either on the 95 percent confidence intervals (CIs) around those estimates (if the

coefficients were estimated using classical statistical techniques) or on the 95 percent

credible intervals (if the coefficients were estimated using Bayesian statistical

techniques).
Abt Associates Inc. 4-43 December 2006

Figure 4-2. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to O3 Above Background: Single-Pollutant, Single-City Models (April – September)

Figure 4-2a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-2b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Schwartz, 2004

Detroit: Ito, 2003

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Philadelphia: Moolgavkar et al.,

1995

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Schwartz, 2004

Detroit: Ito, 2003

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Philadelphia: Moolgavkar et al.,

1995

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-44 December 2006

Figure 4-3. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to O3 Above Background (April – September): Single-Pollutant vs. Multi-Pollutant Models

[Huang et al. (2004), additional pollutants, from left to right: none, CO, NO2, PM10, SO2]

Figure 4-3a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-3b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-45 December 2006

Figure 4-4. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to O3 Above Background (April – September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City

Model (right bar)

Figure 4-4a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-4b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Schwartz, 2004

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Schwartz, 2004

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-46 December 2006

Figure 4-5. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to O3 Above Background (April – September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City

Model (right bar) – Based on Huang et al. (2004)

Figure 4-5a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-5b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-47 December 2006

Figure 4-6. Estimated Annual Percent of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in

Detroit Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April – September):

Different Lag Models – Based on Ito (2003) [bars from left to right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day

lag models]

Figure 4-6a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-6b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

0-day 1-day 2-day 3-day

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

0-day 1-day 2-day 3-day

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-48 December 2006

Figure 4-7. Estimated Annual Percent of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to “As Is” O3 Above Background for the Period April – September (Based on Bell et al.,

2004 – 95 U.S. Cities) – Total and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges

Figure 4-7a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-7b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los

Angeles

New York

PhiladelphiaSacramento

St. Louis

Washington,

D.C.

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone < 0.03 ppm

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los

Angeles

New York

PhiladelphiaSacramento

St. Louis

Washington,

D.C.

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.07 ppm<=ozone<0.08 ppm

Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm

Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone < 0.03 ppm
Abt Associates Inc. 4-49 December 2006

Figure 4-8. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to “As Is” O3 Above Background for the Period April – September (Based on Huang et al.,

2004 – 19 U.S. Cities) – Total and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges

Figure 4-8a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-8b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone<0.03 ppm

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm

Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone<0.03 ppm
Table 4-8. Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2004*

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 0.4 0.1%

(-26 - 38) (-1.8 - 2.6) (-0.6% - 0.8%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 0.8 0.3%

(4 - 20) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.1% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 7 1.0 0.3%

(2 - 12) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.1% - 0.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 49 0.9 0.2%

(16 - 81) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.1% - 0.4%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 394 7.3 1.9%

(125 - 658) (2.3 - 12.2) (0.6% - 3.1%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 148 2.8 0.7%

(46 - 250) (0.9 - 4.6) (0.2% - 1.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 27 1.9 0.4%

(-17 - 69) (-1.2 - 5) (-0.2% - 0.9%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 1.2 0.2%

(6 - 28) (0.4 - 2) (0.1% - 0.4%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 33 1.6 0.4%

(-11 - 76) (-0.5 - 3.7) (-0.1% - 0.8%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 0.8 0.2%

(6 - 28) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 128 6.2 1.4%

(-21 - 274) (-1 - 13.3) (-0.2% - 2.9%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 70 3.4 0.7%

(22 - 117) (1.1 - 5.7) (0.2% - 1.2%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 40 2.0 0.4%

(-37 - 116) (-1.8 - 5.6) (-0.4% - 1.2%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 35 1.0 0.4%

(2 - 67) (0.1 - 2) (0% - 0.7%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 0.5 0.2%

(6 - 28) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 93 2.7 1%

(9 - 176) (0.3 - 5.2) (0.1% - 1.9%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 78 2.3 0.9%

(24 - 130) (0.7 - 3.8) (0.3% - 1.4%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 62 0.6 0.2%

(-149 - 271) (-1.6 - 2.8) (-0.5% - 1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 133 1.4 0.5%

(45 - 221) (0.5 - 2.3) (0.2% - 0.8%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 60 0.7 0.2%

(20 - 100) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.1% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 23 1.5 0.3%

(8 - 38) (0.5 - 2.5) (0.1% - 0.5%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 82 5.4 1%

(52 - 112) (3.4 - 7.4) (0.6% - 1.4%)

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Location Study Lag Exposure Metric

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-50 December 2006
Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Location Study Lag Exposure Metric

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 1.0 0.3%

(-36 - 59) (-3 - 4.8) (-0.9% - 1.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 18 1.4 0.4%

(6 - 29) (0.5 - 2.4) (0.1% - 0.7%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3 1.0 0.2%

(-6 - 13) (-1.7 - 3.6) (-0.3% - 0.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3 0.9 0.2%

(1 - 5) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.1% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 8 1.5 0.3%

(3 - 14) (0.5 - 2.4) (0.1% - 0.5%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the

nearest tenth.

Sacramento

St Louis

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington, D.C.

Abt Associates Inc. 4-51 December 2006
Table 4-9. Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2002*

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 0.6 0.2%

(-37 - 54) (-2.5 - 3.6) (-0.8% - 1.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 1.2 0.4%

(6 - 29) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.1% - 0.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 10 1.5 0.4%

(3 - 17) (0.5 - 2.5) (0.1% - 0.7%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 69 1.3 0.3%

(23 - 115) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.1% - 0.5%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 505 9.4 2.4%

(161 - 840) (3 - 15.6) (0.8% - 4%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 191 3.6 0.9%

(60 - 321) (1.1 - 6) (0.3% - 1.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 61 4.3 0.8%

(-38 - 157) (-2.7 - 11.3) (-0.5% - 2.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 38 2.8 0.5%

(13 - 64) (0.9 - 4.6) (0.2% - 0.9%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 57 2.8 0.6%

(-18 - 131) (-0.9 - 6.3) (-0.2% - 1.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 29 1.4 0.3%

(10 - 48) (0.5 - 2.3) (0.1% - 0.5%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 181 8.8 1.9%

(-30 - 385) (-1.4 - 18.7) (-0.3% - 4.1%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 99 4.8 1%

(31 - 165) (1.5 - 8) (0.3% - 1.8%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 69 3.4 0.7%

(-64 - 198) (-3.1 - 9.6) (-0.7% - 2.1%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 29 0.9 0.3%

(2 - 57) (0.1 - 1.7) (0% - 0.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 14 0.4 0.2%

(5 - 24) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 85 2.5 0.9%

(8 - 161) (0.2 - 4.7) (0.1% - 1.8%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 71 2.1 0.8%

(22 - 119) (0.7 - 3.5) (0.2% - 1.3%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 51 0.5 0.2%

(-124 - 224) (-1.3 - 2.4) (-0.5% - 0.8%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 110 1.2 0.4%

(37 - 184) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.1% - 0.7%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 105 1.2 0.3%

(35 - 174) (0.4 - 2) (0.1% - 0.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 37 2.4 0.5%

(12 - 62) (0.8 - 4.1) (0.2% - 0.8%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 132 8.7 1.6%

(83 - 180) (5.5 - 11.9) (1% - 2.2%)

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Location Study Lag Exposure Metric

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-52 December 2006
Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Location Study Lag Exposure Metric

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 16 1.3 0.4%

(-48 - 78) (-3.9 - 6.4) (-1.1% - 1.9%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 23 1.9 0.6%

(8 - 39) (0.6 - 3.2) (0.2% - 0.9%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 1.9 0.3%

(-11 - 23) (-3.1 - 6.7) (-0.5% - 1.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 1.7 0.3%

(2 - 10) (0.6 - 2.8) (0.1% - 0.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 15 2.6 0.6%

(5 - 25) (0.9 - 4.4) (0.2% - 0.9%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the

nearest tenth.

Sacramento

St Louis

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington

Abt Associates Inc. 4-53 December 2006
Table 4-10. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:

April - September, 2004*

Incidence Incidence per 100,000 Relevant

Population Percent of Total Incidence

8 0.5 0.8%

(-3 - 18) (-0.2 - 1.2) (-0.3% - 1.8%)

8 0.5 0.8%

(3 - 13) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.3% - 1.3%)

23 0.4 0.4%

(-21 - 66) (-0.4 - 1.2) (-0.4% - 1.3%)

38 0.7 0.7%

(14 - 61) (0.3 - 1.1) (0.3% - 1.2%)

16 1.2 0.9%

(0 - 32) (0 - 2.3) (0% - 1.7%)

14 1.0 0.7%

(5 - 22) (0.4 - 1.6) (0.3% - 1.2%)

15 0.7 0.6%

(-2 - 31) (-0.1 - 1.5) (-0.1% - 1.3%)

14 0.7 0.6%

(5 - 22) (0.3 - 1.1) (0.2% - 0.9%)

12 0.4 0.6%

(-2 - 26) (0 - 0.8) (-0.1% - 1.2%)

13 0.4 0.6%

(5 - 20) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.2% - 1%)

99 1.0 1.3%

(1 - 195) (0 - 2.1) (0% - 2.6%)

115 1.2 1.6%

(44 - 185) (0.5 - 1.9) (0.6% - 2.5%)

73 0.8 0.8%

(23 - 123) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3% - 1.4%)

54 0.6 0.6%

(21 - 87) (0.2 - 1) (0.2% - 1%)

20 1.3 1.1%

(1 - 39) (0.1 - 2.6) (0.1% - 2.1%)

17 1.1 0.9%

(6 - 27) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.3% - 1.5%)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

*All results are for cardiorespiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a singlepollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

19 U.S. Cities

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Philadelphia

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant

population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Risk Assessment Location

19 U.S. Cities

Study Location

Cleveland

19 U.S. Cities

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Abt Associates Inc. 4-54 December 2006
Table 4-11. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:

April - September, 2002*

Incidence Incidence per 100,000 Relevant

Population Percent of Total Incidence

11 0.7 1.1%

(-4 - 25) (-0.2 - 1.7) (-0.4% - 2.6%)

11 0.8 1.2%

(4 - 18) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.5% - 1.9%)

32 0.6 0.6%

(-29 - 93) (-0.5 - 1.7) (-0.6% - 1.8%)

53 1.0 1%

(20 - 86) (0.4 - 1.6) (0.4% - 1.7%)

36 2.6 2%

(-1 - 72) (-0.1 - 5.2) (0% - 3.9%)

31 2.2 1.6%

(12 - 49) (0.8 - 3.5) (0.6% - 2.6%)

26 1.2 1.1%

(-3 - 54) (-0.1 - 2.6) (-0.1% - 2.2%)

24 1.1 1%

(9 - 38) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.4% - 1.6%)

10 0.3 0.5%

(-1 - 22) (0 - 0.6) (-0.1% - 1%)

11 0.3 0.5%

(4 - 17) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.2% - 0.8%)

82 0.9 1.1%

(1 - 162) (0 - 1.7) (0% - 2.2%)

95 1.0 1.3%

(36 - 153) (0.4 - 1.6) (0.5% - 2.1%)

128 1.4 1.4%

(41 - 213) (0.5 - 2.4) (0.5% - 2.4%)

94 1.1 1.1%

(36 - 151) (0.4 - 1.7) (0.4% - 1.7%)

33 2.2 1.8%

(2 - 63) (0.1 - 4.1) (0.1% - 3.4%)

27 1.8 1.5%

(10 - 43) (0.7 - 2.8) (0.6% - 2.3%)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

*All results are for cardiorespiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a singlepollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

19 U.S. Cities

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Philadelphia

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant

population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Risk Assessment Location

19 U.S. Cities

Study Location

Cleveland

19 U.S. Cities

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Abt Associates Inc. 4-55 December 2006
Table 4-12. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: New York, NY, April - September, 2004

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all 24 hr avg. none 60 0.7 0.2%

(20 - 100) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Huang et al. (2004)*** all 24 hr avg. none 73 0.8 0.8%

(23 - 123) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3% - 1.4%)

all 24 hr avg. none 54 0.6 0.6%

(21 - 87) (0.2 - 1) (0.2% - 1%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 30 0.3 0.3%

(9 - 51) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1% - 0.6%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 26 0.3 0.3%

(5 - 47) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1% - 0.5%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 32 0.4 0.4%

(-12 - 76) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.1% - 0.9%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 22 0.2 0.2%

(0 - 44) (0 - 0.5) (0% - 0.5%)

Thurston et al. (1992)  all 1 hr max. none 447 5.6 1.3%

(108 - 786) (1.4 - 9.8) (0.3% - 2.2%)

Thurston et al. (1992)** ** all 1 hr max. none 382 4.8 2.9%

(81 - 683) (1 - 8.5) (0.6% - 5.2%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

***New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.

 New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

1-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

3-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background

Levels**  Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the

nearest tenth.

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)***

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), respiratory

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), asthma

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)***

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)***

Abt Associates Inc. 4-56 December 2006
Table 4-13. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: New York, NY, April - September, 2002

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all 24 hr avg. none 105 1.2 0.3%

(35 - 174) (0.4 - 2) (0.1% - 0.6%)

Huang et al. (2004)*** all 24 hr avg. none 128 1.4 1.4%

(41 - 213) (0.5 - 2.4) (0.5% - 2.4%)

all 24 hr avg. none 94 1.1 1.1%

(36 - 151) (0.4 - 1.7) (0.4% - 1.7%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 52 0.6 0.6%

(15 - 89) (0.2 - 1) (0.2% - 1%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 45 0.5 0.5%

(8 - 82) (0.1 - 0.9) (0.1% - 0.9%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 56 0.6 0.6%

(-22 - 132) (-0.2 - 1.5) (-0.2% - 1.5%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 39 0.4 0.4%

(0 - 77) (0 - 0.9) (0% - 0.9%)

Thurston et al. (1992)  all 1 hr max. none 608 7.6 1.7%

(147 - 1068) (1.8 - 13.3) (0.4% - 3%)

Thurston et al. (1992)** ** all 1 hr max. none 519 6.5 4%

(110 - 928) (1.4 - 11.6) (0.8% - 7.1%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

***New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.

 New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Other Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels** 

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the

nearest tenth.

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)***

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), respiratory

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), asthma

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)***

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)***

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

1-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

3-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. 4-57 December 2006
Abt Associates Inc. 4-58 December 2006

As discussed in Section 4.1.4, assessment locations were chosen in part on the

basis of whether an acceptable C-R function had been reported for that location. As a

result, risks were estimated in a given assessment location only for those health endpoints

for which there is at least one acceptable C-R function reported for that location. The set

of health effects shown in Tables 4-12 and 4-13 and Tables C-1 through C-22 therefore

varies from one location to another. For example, hospital admissions for pneumonia

associated with short-term exposure to O3 is included in Tables C-9 and C-10 for Detroit,

but no hospital admissions endpoints are included in Tables C-1 through C-6 for Atlanta,

Boston, and Chicago, because there was no study that met the selection criteria that

reports a C-R function for hospital admissions reported in the O3 epidemiological

literature for any of those cities evaluated in the O3 CD. For non-accidental mortality

associated with short-term exposure to O3, Figures 4-4a and b display estimates for only

nine of the twelve risk assessment locations because single-city C-R functions for this

health outcome were not available for the other three locations.

All results discussed below are for April through September. The top graph on

each page shows results based on 2004 air quality, and the bottom graph shows results

based on 2002 air quality. Figures 4-2a and b show estimated percent of non-accidental

mortality related to “as is” O3 concentrations over PRB levels, based on single-pollutant,

single-city models across all locations for which such models were available. Tables 4-8

and 4-9 show estimates of incidence, incidence per 100,000 relevant population, and

percent of total incidence of non-accidental mortality related to “as is” O3 concentrations

over PRB levels in all locations, based on both single-city and multi-city models, using

air quality data for 2004 and 2002, respectively.

Estimates of O3-related (non-accidental) mortality based on 2004 air quality

(Table 4-8) ranged from 0.4 per 100,000 relevant population in Atlanta (Bell et al., 2004)

to 7.3 per 100,000 relevant population in Chicago (Schwartz, 2004). The corresponding

range based on 2002 air quality (Table 4-9) is from 0.4 per 100,000 relevant population

in Houston (Bell et al., 2004) to 9.4 per 100,000 relevant population in Chicago

(Schwartz, 2004). Estimated O3-related (non-accidental) mortality reported by Schwartz

(2004) for Chicago, Detroit, and Houston, based on both the single-city and the multi-city

C-R functions, tend to be higher than other estimates in those locations in large part

because Schwartz used the 1-hr maximum O3 concentration, rather than the 24-hour

average, as the exposure metric. The changes from “as is” 1-hr maximum to PRB 1-hr

maximum O3 concentrations were generally larger in the assessment locations than the

corresponding changes from “as is” 24-hr average to PRB 24-hr average O3

concentrations. As a percent of total incidence, estimated O3-related (non-accidental)

mortality ranged from 0.1 percent in Atlanta (Bell et al., 2004) to 1.9 percent in Chicago

(Schwartz, 2004), using 2004 air quality data. Using 2002 air quality data, the range was

from 0.2 percent in Atlanta (Bell et al., 2004), Houston (Bell et al., 2004), and Los

Angeles (Bell et al., 2004) to 2.4 percent in Chicago (Schwartz, 2004). Although 7 of the

12 estimates from single-city single-pollutant models shown in Figure 4-4 were not

statistically significant, all 12 were positive.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-59 December 2006

Figures 4-3a and b show estimated percent of cardiorespiratory mortality related

to “as is” O3 concentrations over PRB levels, based on multi-city single-pollutant versus

multi-pollutant models from Huang et al. (2004) across all locations for which such

models were available. Tables 4-10 and 4-11 show estimates of incidence, incidence per

100,000 relevant population, and percent of total incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality

related to “as is” O3 concentrations over PRB levels in all risk assessment locations

covered in Huang et al. (2004), based on both single-city and multi-city single-pollutant

models from that study. Estimates of O3-related cardiorespiratory mortality ranged from

0.4 per 100,000 relevant population in Chicago (using the single-city C-R function) and

Houston (using both the single-city and the multi-city C-R functions) to 1.3 per 100,000

relevant population in Philadelphia (using the single-city C-R function), when 2004 air

quality data was used. The corresponding range using 2002 air quality data was from 0.3

per 100,000 relevant population in Houston (using both the single-city and the multi-city

C-R functions) to 2.6 per 100,000 relevant population in Cleveland (using the single-city

C-R function). As a percent of total incidence, estimated O3-related cardiorespiratory

mortality ranged from 0.4 percent in Chicago (using the single-city C-R function) to 1.6

percent in Los Angeles (using the multi-city C-R function), when 2004 air quality data

was used. The corresponding range using 2002 air quality data was from 0.5 percent in

Houston (using both the single-city and the multi-city C-R functions) to 2 percent in

Cleveland (using the single-city C-R function). All of the estimates of O3-related

cardiorespiratory mortality based on Huang et al. (2004), from both single-city and multicity models, and from both single-pollutant and multi-pollutant models, were positive.

Five of the single-city single-pollutant “shrinkage” estimates (for Atlanta, Chicago,

Cleveland, Detroit, and Houston) and the estimate from the multi-city multi-pollutant

model with PM10 were not statistically significant. All the rest of the estimates of O3-

related cardiorespiratory mortality based on Huang et al. (2004) were statistically

significant.

Figures 4-4a and b show estimated percent of non-accidental mortality that is O3-

related, based on single-city versus multi-city models across all locations for which both

types of model were available. Estimates of O3-related non-accidental mortality based on

single-city models tended to have wider confidence or credible intervals than those based

on multi-city models, with both multi-city models (from Bell et al., 2004 and Schwartz,

2004) producing statistically significant results. However, the choice of single-city

versus multi-city model did not have a uniform affect on the magnitude of the point

estimate. In some cases (Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Sacramento), the multi-city models

produced larger estimates than the single-city models, while in other cases (Chicago,

Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, and St. Louis) the reverse was true.

Bayesian credible intervals around the “shrinkage” estimates of O3-related

cardiorespiratory mortality (see Section 4.1.9.1.2) based on single-city models in Huang

et al. (2004) were uniformly larger than the corresponding credible intervals around

estimates based on the multi-city model from that study. As noted above, all of the

estimates were positive and, with the exception of the single-city estimate for Chicago,

all were statistically significant.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-60 December 2006

Estimated O3-related pneumonia hospital admissions in Detroit (Ito 2003), shown

in Figures 4-6a and b, increased monotonically with increasing lag, with the greatest

estimate predicted by a 3-day lag model. None of the estimates of O3-related

unscheduled hospital admissions in Detroit were statistically significant.

Figures 4-7a and b and 4-8a and b show the estimated annual percent of nonaccidental mortality and cardiorespiratory mortality, respectively, associated with shortterm exposure to “as is” O3 concentrations within specified ranges. In 2004, all O3-

related non-accidental mortality was associated with O3 concentrations less than 0.06

ppm, and most of that was associated with O3 concentrations less than 0.04 ppm. In

2002, all O3-related non-accidental mortality was associated with O3 concentrations less

than 0.08 ppm, and the great majority was associated with O3 concentrations less than

0.06 ppm. The results for cardiorespiratory mortality follow a similar pattern.

4.2.1.2 Assessment of the mortality risks associated with 2003 “as is” O3

concentrations in excess of policy relevant background levels in five urban

areas

The non-accidental mortality risks associated with 2003 “as is” O3 concentrations

in excess of PRB levels in Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York are

shown in Table 4-14. The corresponding cardiorespiratory mortality risks are shown in

Table 4-15. The non-accidental mortality risks associated with 2003 “as is” O3

concentrations in excess of PRB levels, measured as percent of total incidence, are very

similar to those associated with 2002 and/or 2004 “as is” O3 concentrations in excess of

PRB levels, as can be seen by comparing the results in Table 4-14 with the results for a

recent year of air quality in Tables H-6 (for 2004) and 4-36 (for 2002) for the five

locations included in the 2003 analysis. The cardiorespiratory mortality risks associated

with 2003 “as is” O3 concentrations in excess of PRB levels, measured as percent of total

incidence, are similarly very close to those associated with 2002 and/or 2004 “as is” O3

concentrations in excess of PRB levels, as can be seen by comparing the results in Table

4-15 with the results for a recent year of air quality in Tables H-12 (for 2004) and 4-39

(for 2002) for the five locations included in the 2003 analysis.
Table 4-14. Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2003*

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 0.4 0.1%

(-26 - 37) (-1.7 - 2.5) (-0.6% - 0.8%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 0.8 0.3%

(4 - 20) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.1% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 64 1.2 0.3%

(22 - 107) (0.4 - 2) (0.1% - 0.5%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 445 8.3 2.1%

(141 - 742) (2.6 - 13.8) (0.7% - 3.5%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 168 3.1 0.8%

(53 - 282) (1 - 5.3) (0.2% - 1.3%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 36 1.1 0.4%

(2 - 70) (0.1 - 2) (0% - 0.8%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 18 0.5 0.2%

(6 - 30) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 101 3.0 1.1%

(9 - 191) (0.3 - 5.6) (0.1% - 2.1%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 84 2.5 0.9%

(26 - 141) (0.8 - 4.2) (0.3% - 1.6%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 56 0.6 0.2%

(-136 - 246) (-1.4 - 2.6) (-0.5% - 0.9%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 121 1.3 0.4%

(41 - 201) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.1% - 0.7%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 79 0.9 0.3%

(27 - 132) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.1% - 0.4%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the

nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Location Study Lag Exposure Metric

Abt Associates Inc. 4-61 December 2006
Table 4-15. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:

April - September, 2003*

Incidence Incidence per 100,000 Relevant

Population Percent of Total Incidence

8 0.5 0.8%

(-2 - 17) (-0.2 - 1.2) (-0.3% - 1.8%)

8 0.5 0.8%

(3 - 13) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.3% - 1.3%)

30 0.6 0.6%

(-27 - 86) (-0.5 - 1.6) (-0.5% - 1.7%)

49 0.9 1%

(19 - 80) (0.4 - 1.5) (0.4% - 1.6%)

13 0.4 0.6%

(-2 - 27) (0 - 0.8) (-0.1% - 1.3%)

13 0.4 0.6%

(5 - 21) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.2% - 1%)

90 0.9 1.2%

(1 - 178) (0 - 1.9) (0% - 2.4%)

104 1.1 1.4%

(40 - 168) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.5% - 2.3%)

97 1.1 1.1%

(31 - 161) (0.3 - 1.8) (0.3% - 1.8%)

71 0.8 0.8%

(27 - 114) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3% - 1.3%)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Atlanta

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant

population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Risk Assessment Location

19 U.S. Cities

Study Location

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

Chicago

*All results are for cardiorespiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3

. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a singlepollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Abt Associates Inc. 4-62 December 2006
Abt Associates Inc. 4-63 December 2006

4.2.2 Assessment of the reduced health risks associated with O3 concentrations

that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour standards

The results of the assessment of the reduced health risks associated with O3

concentrations that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards

are presented in two parts. In Section 4.2.2.1, we present results for the current standard

and the original set of seven alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards considered,

based on adjusting 2002 and 2004 air quality. In Section 4.2.2.2, we present results for

the current standard and a smaller set of two alternative standards in Atlanta, Chicago,

Houston, Los Angeles, and New York, based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality. As

noted above (see Section 3.2.2), an 8-hr average standard, denoted m/n, is characterized

by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current

standard is 0.084/4 – 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th

daily maximum standards, denoted m/n, for n = 3, 4, and 5, require that the average of the

three annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level

(e.g., 0.084 ppm).

4.2.2.1 Results for all locations for the current standard and the original set of

seven standards, based on 2002 and 2004 air quality data

The results of the assessment of the reduced mortality risks associated with O3

concentrations that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards

(based on 2004 and in 2002 air quality data for all of the assessment locations) are

summarized across urban areas in Figures 4-9a and b through 4-17a and b, and in Tables

4-16 through 4-27. Figures 4-9a and b through 4-15a and b show results expressed as

percent of total incidence. The corresponding figures showing results expressed as

number of cases per 100,000 relevant population are given in Appendix E. Figures 4-16a

and b and 4-17a and b show results for O3-related non-accidental and cardiorespiratory

mortality, respectively, expressed as estimated percent reductions from the current

standard to alternative standards, separately for each location. These percent reductions

were calculated as mortality under the current standard minus mortality under an

alternative standard divided by mortality under the current standard. A reduction in

mortality therefore results in a positive percent – i.e., a positive reduction. Figures 4-9a

through 4-17a show results based on year 2004 air quality data; Figures 4-9b through 4-

17b show results based on 2002 air quality data. Tables 4-16, 4-17, and 4-18 show

estimated incidence, incidence per 100,000 relevant population, and percent of total

incidence, respectively, of non-accidental mortality associated with O3 concentrations that

just meet the current and alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards, based on 2004 O3

concentrations. Tables 4-19, 4-20, and 4-21 show results for the same measures of nonaccidental mortality risk based on 2002 O3 concentrations. Tables 4-22 through 4-27

show the corresponding results for cardiorespiratory mortality. All results are for health

risks associated with short-term exposures to O3 concentrations in excess of PRB levels

from April through September.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-64 December 2006

Tables 4-28 through 4-30 show results in New York City for health endpoints

associated with short-term exposure to O3 concentrations that just meet the current and

alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards, based on 2004 O3 concentrations. Tables 4-

31 through 4-33 show the corresponding results based on 2002 O3 concentrations.

Results for the other locations corresponding to those shown for New York in Tables 4-

28 through 4-33 are shown in Appendix E, in Tables E-1 through E-66.

As described in the previous section, the central tendency estimates in all of the

figures and tables are based on the O3 coefficients estimated in the studies, or, in the case

of the location-specific estimates from Huang et al. (2004), on “shrinkage” estimates

based on the O3 coefficients estimated in the study (see Section 4.1.9.1.2). The ranges are

based either on the 95 percent confidence intervals around those estimates (if the

coefficients were estimated using classical statistical techniques) or on the 95 percent

credible intervals (if the coefficients were estimated using Bayesian statistical

techniques).
Abt Associates Inc. 4-65 December 2006

Figure 4-9. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met: SinglePollutant, Single-City Models (April – September)

Figure 4-9a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-9b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Schwartz, 2004

Detroit: Ito, 2003

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Philadelphia: Moolgavkar et al.,

1995

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Schwartz, 2004

Detroit: Ito, 2003

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Philadelphia: Moolgavkar et al.,

1995

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-66 December 2006

Figure 4-10. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April –

September): Single-Pollutant vs. Multi-Pollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004), additional pollutants,

from left to right: none, CO, NO2, PM10, SO2]

Figure 4-10a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-10b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-0.2%

0.3%

0.8%

1.3%

1.8%

2.3%

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

-0.2%

0.3%

0.8%

1.3%

1.8%

2.3%

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-67 December 2006

Figure 4-11. Estimated Annual Percent of (Non-Accidental) Mortality Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April –

September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar)

Figure 4-11a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-11b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Huang et al., 2004

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Huang et al., 2004

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-68 December 2006

Figure 4-12. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April –

September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) – Based on Huang et al.

(2004)

Figure 4-12a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-12b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-69 December 2006

Figure 4-13. Estimated Annual Percent of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in

Detroit Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour

Standard is Just Met (April – September): Different Lag Models – Based on Ito (2003) [bars from

left to right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lag models]

Figure 4-13a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-13b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

0-day 1-day 2-day 3-day

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

0-day 1-day 2-day 3-day

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-70 December 2006

Figure 4-14. Estimated Annual Percent of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to O3 Above Policy Relevant Background for the Period April – September When the

Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (Based on Bell et al., 2004 – 95 U.S. Cities) – Total and

Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges

Figure 4-14a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-14b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

PhiladelphiaSacramento

St. Louis

Washington,

D.C.

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone<0.03 ppm

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

PhiladelphiaSacramento

St. Louis

Washington,

D.C.

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm

Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone<0.03 ppm
Abt Associates Inc. 4-71 December 2006

Figure 4-15. Estimated Annual Percent of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to O3 Above Policy Relevant Background for the Period April – September When the

Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (Based on Huang et al., 2004 – 19 U.S. Cities) – Total and

Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges

Figure 4-15a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure 4-15b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone<0.03 ppm

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Percent of Total Incidence (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm

Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone<0.03 ppm
Abt Associates Inc. 4-72 December 2006

Figure 4-16. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Alternative Standards in

O3-Related Non-Accidental Mortality, Separately for Each Location (Based on Bell et al., 2004 -- 95

U.S. Cities)*

Figure 4-16a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of

m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily

maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. The

incidence (and 95% credible interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3

concentrations just meet the current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2004 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Atlanta: 9 (3 - 15); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%) Boston: 6 (2 - 9); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.4%)

Chicago: 33 (11 - 55); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%) Cleveland: 12 (4 - 20); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%)

Detroit: 12 (4 - 20); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%) Houston: 11 (4 - 18); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)

Los Angeles: 67 (22 - 111); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.4%) New York: 43 (15 - 72); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)

Philadelphia: 17 (6 - 28); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%) Sacramento: 12 (4 - 21); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.5%)

St Louis: 2 (1 - 4); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%) Washington: 7 (2 - 12); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.4%)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-73 December 2006

Figure 4-16b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2002 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Atlanta: 14 (5 - 23); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.5%) Boston: 9 (3 - 15); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.6%)

Chicago: 55 (18 - 91); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.4%) Cleveland: 31 (10 - 52); 0.4% (0.1% - 0.7%)

Detroit: 24 (8 - 39); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.4%) Houston: 9 (3 - 15); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)

Los Angeles: 52 (17 - 86); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%) New York: 84 (28 - 139); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.4%)

Philadelphia: 30 (10 - 50); 0.4% (0.1% - 0.6%) Sacramento: 18 (6 - 30); 0.4% (0.1% - 0.7%)

St Louis: 5 (2 - 8); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.4%) Washington: 14 (5 - 23); 0.5% (0.2% - 0.8%)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-74 December 2006

Figure 4-17. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Alternative Standards in

O3-Related Cardiorespiratory Mortality, Separately for Each Location (Based on Huang et al., 2004 -

- 19 U.S. Cities)*

Figure 4-17a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of

m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily

maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. The

incidence (and 95% credible interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3

concentrations just meet the current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2004 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Atlanta: 6 (2 - 10); 0.6% (0.2% - 1%) Chicago: 26 (10 - 41); 0.5% (0.2% - 0.8%)

Cleveland: 10 (4 - 15); 0.5% (0.2% - 0.8%) Detroit: 10 (4 - 16); 0.4% (0.2% - 0.7%)

Houston: 8 (3 - 13); 0.4% (0.1% - 0.6%) Los Angeles: 57 (22 - 93); 0.8% (0.3% - 1.3%)

New York: 39 (15 - 63); 0.4% (0.2% - 0.7%) Philadelphia: 12 (5 - 19); 0.7% (0.3% - 1.1%)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-75 December 2006

Figure 4-17b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2002 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Atlanta: 9 (4 - 15); 0.9% (0.4% - 1.5%) Chicago: 42 (16 - 68); 0.8% (0.3% - 1.3%)

Cleveland: 25 (10 - 40); 1.3% (0.5% - 2.1%) Detroit: 19 (7 - 31); 0.8% (0.3% - 1.3%)

Houston: 6 (2 - 10); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.5%) Los Angeles: 45 (17 - 72); 0.6% (0.2% - 1%)

New York: 75 (29 - 120); 0.8% (0.3% - 1.4%) Philadelphia: 22 (8 - 35); 1.2% (0.5% - 1.9%)
Table 4-16. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3

(-20 - 29) (-20 - 29) (-18 - 26) (-16 - 23) (-15 - 22) (-15 - 22) (-13 - 19) (-11 - 16)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 5

(3 - 15) (3 - 15) (3 - 14) (2 - 12) (2 - 12) (2 - 12) (2 - 10) (2 - 8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3

(2 - 9) (2 - 9) (2 - 9) (2 - 8) (1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 33 31 29 26 23 22 19 14

(11 - 55) (10 - 52) (10 - 48) (9 - 43) (8 - 39) (7 - 36) (6 - 32) (5 - 24)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 314 300 288 268 249 238 222 183

(99 - 525) (95 - 501) (91 - 482) (85 - 448) (79 - 417) (75 - 399) (70 - 372) (58 - 307)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 118 113 108 101 93 89 83 69

(37 - 199) (35 - 190) (34 - 182) (31 - 170) (29 - 157) (28 - 151) (26 - 140) (21 - 116)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 19 18 17 15 14 14 13 10

(-12 - 49) (-11 - 46) (-11 - 44) (-9 - 39) (-9 - 37) (-9 - 36) (-8 - 33) (-6 - 26)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 11 11 9 9 9 8 6

(4 - 20) (4 - 19) (4 - 18) (3 - 16) (3 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 13) (2 - 11)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 24 22 21 21 17 16 15 11

(-8 - 56) (-7 - 51) (-7 - 49) (-7 - 48) (-6 - 40) (-5 - 38) (-5 - 35) (-4 - 27)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 11 11 11 9 8 8 6

(4 - 20) (4 - 19) (4 - 18) (4 - 18) (3 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 13) (2 - 10)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 107 102 99 97 87 83 78 66

(-17 - 229) (-17 - 218) (-16 - 212) (-16 - 209) (-14 - 186) (-13 - 178) (-13 - 168) (-11 - 142)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 58 55 54 53 47 45 42 36

(18 - 98) (17 - 93) (17 - 91) (17 - 89) (15 - 79) (14 - 76) (13 - 72) (11 - 61)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 29 27 26 25 21 20 18 14

(-27 - 85) (-25 - 78) (-24 - 75) (-23 - 73) (-20 - 62) (-18 - 57) (-17 - 53) (-13 - 41)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 22 20 19 17 16 15 13 8

(1 - 42) (1 - 39) (1 - 37) (1 - 32) (1 - 30) (1 - 28) (1 - 25) (0 - 15)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 11 10 10 8 8 7 6 4

(4 - 18) (3 - 16) (3 - 16) (3 - 13) (3 - 13) (2 - 12) (2 - 11) (1 - 6)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 70 66 65 59 57 55 52 42

(6 - 132) (6 - 126) (6 - 123) (5 - 112) (5 - 109) (5 - 104) (5 - 99) (4 - 80)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 58 55 54 49 48 46 43 35

(18 - 98) (17 - 93) (17 - 91) (15 - 83) (15 - 81) (14 - 77) (14 - 73) (11 - 59)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 31 30 27 22 20 19 16 9

(-74 - 135) (-72 - 131) (-66 - 120) (-52 - 95) (-49 - 90) (-46 - 83) (-38 - 69) (-22 - 41)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 67 64 59 47 44 41 34 20

(22 - 111) (22 - 107) (20 - 98) (16 - 78) (15 - 74) (14 - 68) (11 - 56) (7 - 33)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 43 38 39 35 33 29 29 24

(15 - 72) (13 - 63) (13 - 65) (12 - 58) (11 - 55) (10 - 48) (10 - 49) (8 - 39)

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Cleveland

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-76 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 15 15 13 13 12 11 9

(6 - 28) (5 - 25) (5 - 25) (4 - 22) (4 - 21) (4 - 20) (4 - 19) (3 - 15)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 59 54 54 47 46 42 41 33

(37 - 81) (34 - 75) (34 - 74) (30 - 65) (29 - 63) (27 - 58) (26 - 56) (21 - 46)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5

(-25 - 42) (-25 - 41) (-23 - 39) (-21 - 35) (-21 - 34) (-20 - 34) (-19 - 31) (-16 - 26)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 8

(4 - 21) (4 - 20) (4 - 19) (4 - 17) (3 - 17) (3 - 17) (3 - 15) (3 - 13)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1

(-4 - 9) (-4 - 8) (-4 - 8) (-3 - 6) (-3 - 6) (-2 - 5) (-2 - 5) (-1 - 3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1

(1 - 4) (1 - 3) (1 - 3) (1 - 3) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4

(2 - 12) (2 - 10) (2 - 11) (2 - 9) (2 - 9) (2 - 8) (2 - 8) (1 - 7)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

St Louis

Sacramento

Washington

Philadelphia

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.

These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-77 December 2006
Table 4-17. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based Adjusting on 2004 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

(-1.3 - 1.9) (-1.3 - 1.9) (-1.2 - 1.8) (-1.1 - 1.6) (-1 - 1.5) (-1 - 1.5) (-0.9 - 1.3) (-0.7 - 1.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3

(0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

(0.3 - 1.4) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

(0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.4)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 5.8 5.6 5.4 5 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.4

(1.9 - 9.8) (1.8 - 9.3) (1.7 - 9) (1.6 - 8.3) (1.5 - 7.7) (1.4 - 7.4) (1.3 - 6.9) (1.1 - 5.7)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.2 2.1 2 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3

(0.7 - 3.7) (0.7 - 3.5) (0.6 - 3.4) (0.6 - 3.2) (0.5 - 2.9) (0.5 - 2.8) (0.5 - 2.6) (0.4 - 2.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 1 0.9 0.7

(-0.8 - 3.5) (-0.8 - 3.3) (-0.8 - 3.2) (-0.7 - 2.8) (-0.6 - 2.7) (-0.6 - 2.6) (-0.6 - 2.4) (-0.5 - 1.9)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

(0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.8)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.2 1.1 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6

(-0.4 - 2.7) (-0.3 - 2.5) (-0.3 - 2.4) (-0.3 - 2.3) (-0.3 - 2) (-0.3 - 1.8) (-0.2 - 1.7) (-0.2 - 1.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

(0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.2 4 3.8 3.2

(-0.8 - 11.1) (-0.8 - 10.6) (-0.8 - 10.3) (-0.8 - 10.1) (-0.7 - 9) (-0.7 - 8.6) (-0.6 - 8.2) (-0.5 - 6.9)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7

(0.9 - 4.7) (0.8 - 4.5) (0.8 - 4.4) (0.8 - 4.3) (0.7 - 3.8) (0.7 - 3.7) (0.6 - 3.5) (0.5 - 2.9)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1 1 0.9 0.7

(-1.3 - 4.1) (-1.2 - 3.8) (-1.2 - 3.6) (-1.1 - 3.6) (-1 - 3) (-0.9 - 2.8) (-0.8 - 2.6) (-0.6 - 2)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2

(0 - 1.2) (0 - 1.1) (0 - 1.1) (0 - 0.9) (0 - 0.9) (0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.2

(0.2 - 3.9) (0.2 - 3.7) (0.2 - 3.6) (0.2 - 3.3) (0.2 - 3.2) (0.1 - 3.1) (0.1 - 2.9) (0.1 - 2.3)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1

(0.5 - 2.9) (0.5 - 2.7) (0.5 - 2.7) (0.5 - 2.4) (0.4 - 2.4) (0.4 - 2.3) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.3 - 1.7)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(-0.8 - 1.4) (-0.8 - 1.4) (-0.7 - 1.3) (-0.5 - 1) (-0.5 - 0.9) (-0.5 - 0.9) (-0.4 - 0.7) (-0.2 - 0.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2

(0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just

Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Cleveland

Abt Associates Inc. 4-78 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just

Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards** Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.1 1 1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6

(0.4 - 1.8) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.1 3 2.8 2.7 2.2

(2.5 - 5.3) (2.3 - 4.9) (2.2 - 4.9) (2 - 4.3) (1.9 - 4.2) (1.8 - 3.8) (1.7 - 3.7) (1.4 - 3)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4

(-2.1 - 3.4) (-2 - 3.3) (-1.9 - 3.1) (-1.8 - 2.9) (-1.7 - 2.8) (-1.7 - 2.7) (-1.5 - 2.5) (-1.3 - 2.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6

(0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1.1)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2

(-1.2 - 2.7) (-1.1 - 2.4) (-1 - 2.3) (-0.8 - 1.8) (-0.8 - 1.7) (-0.7 - 1.5) (-0.6 - 1.3) (-0.4 - 0.9)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2

(0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.2 1 1.1 1 1 0.8 0.9 0.7

(0.4 - 2.1) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.2 - 1.2)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) St Louis

Sacramento

Washington

Philadelphia

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.

These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Abt Associates Inc. 4-79 December 2006
Table 4-18. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(-0.4% - 0.6%) (-0.4% - 0.6%) (-0.4% - 0.6%) (-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.3% - 0.4%) (-0.2% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9%

(0.5% - 2.5%) (0.5% - 2.4%) (0.4% - 2.3%) (0.4% - 2.1%) (0.4% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.3% - 1.8%) (0.3% - 1.5%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.2% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%

(-0.2% - 2.4%) (-0.2% - 2.3%) (-0.2% - 2.3%) (-0.2% - 2.2%) (-0.1% - 2%) (-0.1% - 1.9%) (-0.1% - 1.8%) (-0.1% - 1.5%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.3% - 0.9%) (-0.3% - 0.8%) (-0.3% - 0.8%) (-0.2% - 0.8%) (-0.2% - 0.7%) (-0.2% - 0.6%) (-0.2% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.4%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%

(0.1% - 1.5%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.9%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.2% - 0.4%) (-0.2% - 0.3%) (-0.2% - 0.3%) (-0.2% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

O3 Standards**

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Cleveland

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-80 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

O3 Standards** Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.5% - 1%) (0.4% - 0.9%) (0.4% - 0.9%) (0.4% - 0.8%) (0.4% - 0.8%) (0.3% - 0.7%) (0.3% - 0.7%) (0.3% - 0.6%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(-0.6% - 1%) (-0.6% - 1%) (-0.6% - 0.9%) (-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.5% - 0.7%) (-0.4% - 0.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(-0.2% - 0.5%) (-0.2% - 0.4%) (-0.2% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.2%) (-0.1% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

St Louis

Sacramento

Washington

Philadelphia

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-81 December 2006
Table 4-19. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4

(-30 - 43) (-30 - 43) (-28 - 40) (-26 - 38) (-24 - 35) (-24 - 35) (-22 - 32) (-19 - 27)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 9

(5 - 23) (5 - 23) (4 - 21) (4 - 20) (4 - 19) (4 - 19) (3 - 17) (3 - 14)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6

(3 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 14) (3 - 13) (3 - 12) (2 - 12) (2 - 12) (2 - 10)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 55 52 50 47 44 43 40 34

(18 - 91) (18 - 87) (17 - 84) (16 - 79) (15 - 74) (14 - 71) (13 - 67) (11 - 57)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 427 412 401 381 361 350 335 294

(136 - 712) (131 - 687) (127 - 669) (121 - 636) (115 - 603) (111 - 585) (106 - 559) (93 - 493)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 161 156 151 144 136 132 126 111

(51 - 271) (49 - 261) (47 - 254) (45 - 242) (43 - 229) (41 - 222) (39 - 212) (35 - 187)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 49 47 46 43 42 40 39 35

(-31 - 128) (-30 - 123) (-29 - 120) (-27 - 112) (-26 - 109) (-25 - 105) (-25 - 102) (-22 - 91)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 31 30 29 27 27 26 25 22

(10 - 52) (10 - 50) (10 - 49) (9 - 45) (9 - 44) (9 - 43) (8 - 41) (7 - 37)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 46 43 43 42 38 35 34 29

(-15 - 106) (-14 - 100) (-14 - 98) (-14 - 97) (-12 - 87) (-11 - 81) (-11 - 79) (-9 - 67)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 24 22 22 22 19 18 18 15

(8 - 39) (7 - 37) (7 - 36) (7 - 36) (6 - 32) (6 - 30) (6 - 29) (5 - 25)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 158 150 148 147 134 128 125 111

(-26 - 336) (-24 - 320) (-24 - 316) (-24 - 313) (-22 - 287) (-21 - 274) (-20 - 268) (-18 - 239)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 86 82 81 80 73 70 68 61

(27 - 144) (26 - 137) (25 - 136) (25 - 134) (23 - 123) (22 - 117) (21 - 115) (19 - 102)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 56 53 52 51 46 43 42 36

(-52 - 162) (-49 - 151) (-48 - 150) (-48 - 147) (-42 - 132) (-40 - 124) (-39 - 120) (-33 - 103)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 18 16 16 13 13 12 11 7

(1 - 34) (1 - 32) (1 - 31) (1 - 26) (1 - 25) (1 - 23) (1 - 21) (0 - 13)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 3

(3 - 15) (3 - 13) (3 - 13) (2 - 11) (2 - 10) (2 - 10) (2 - 9) (1 - 5)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 63 59 58 53 51 48 46 36

(6 - 119) (5 - 113) (5 - 110) (5 - 100) (5 - 97) (4 - 92) (4 - 87) (3 - 69)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 53 50 49 44 43 40 38 30

(16 - 88) (16 - 84) (15 - 82) (14 - 74) (13 - 72) (13 - 68) (12 - 64) (9 - 51)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 24 23 21 15 15 13 11 7

(-58 - 105) (-55 - 100) (-50 - 91) (-36 - 66) (-35 - 64) (-32 - 59) (-26 - 48) (-16 - 29)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 52 49 45 33 32 29 24 14

(17 - 86) (17 - 82) (15 - 74) (11 - 54) (11 - 53) (10 - 48) (8 - 39) (5 - 23)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 84 76 78 73 70 64 65 57

(28 - 139) (25 - 126) (26 - 130) (24 - 121) (23 - 116) (21 - 106) (22 - 108) (19 - 95)

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Cleveland

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-82 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 30 28 28 26 26 24 24 21

(10 - 50) (10 - 47) (9 - 47) (9 - 43) (9 - 42) (8 - 40) (8 - 40) (7 - 35)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 107 101 101 93 91 86 85 75

(67 - 146) (63 - 138) (63 - 137) (58 - 127) (57 - 124) (54 - 117) (53 - 116) (47 - 103)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9

(-37 - 60) (-36 - 58) (-35 - 57) (-32 - 53) (-32 - 52) (-31 - 50) (-30 - 49) (-27 - 44)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 18 17 17 16 15 15 14 13

(6 - 30) (6 - 29) (6 - 28) (5 - 26) (5 - 26) (5 - 25) (5 - 24) (4 - 22)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3

(-9 - 20) (-9 - 19) (-8 - 18) (-8 - 16) (-7 - 15) (-7 - 15) (-6 - 14) (-5 - 12)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3

(2 - 8) (2 - 8) (1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 6) (1 - 6) (1 - 6) (1 - 5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 14 12 13 12 12 10 11 10

(5 - 23) (4 - 20) (4 - 21) (4 - 19) (4 - 19) (3 - 17) (4 - 18) (3 - 16)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.

These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

St Louis

Sacramento

Washington

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-83 December 2006
Table 4-20. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

(-2 - 2.9) (-2 - 2.9) (-1.9 - 2.7) (-1.8 - 2.5) (-1.6 - 2.4) (-1.7 - 2.4) (-1.5 - 2.2) (-1.3 - 1.8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6

(0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1 1 0.9

(0.4 - 2.1) (0.4 - 2) (0.4 - 2) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6

(0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.1)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.2 5.5

(2.5 - 13.2) (2.4 - 12.8) (2.4 - 12.4) (2.3 - 11.8) (2.1 - 11.2) (2.1 - 10.9) (2 - 10.4) (1.7 - 9.2)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1

(0.9 - 5) (0.9 - 4.9) (0.9 - 4.7) (0.8 - 4.5) (0.8 - 4.3) (0.8 - 4.1) (0.7 - 3.9) (0.6 - 3.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.5

(-2.2 - 9.2) (-2.1 - 8.8) (-2.1 - 8.6) (-1.9 - 8) (-1.9 - 7.8) (-1.8 - 7.5) (-1.8 - 7.3) (-1.6 - 6.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2.2 2.2 2.1 2 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6

(0.8 - 3.7) (0.7 - 3.6) (0.7 - 3.5) (0.7 - 3.3) (0.6 - 3.2) (0.6 - 3.1) (0.6 - 3) (0.5 - 2.7)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2.2 2.1 2.1 2 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.4

(-0.7 - 5.2) (-0.7 - 4.8) (-0.7 - 4.8) (-0.7 - 4.7) (-0.6 - 4.2) (-0.6 - 3.9) (-0.5 - 3.8) (-0.5 - 3.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7

(0.4 - 1.9) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.2 - 1.2)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 7.7 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.5 6.2 6.1 5.4

(-1.3 - 16.3) (-1.2 - 15.5) (-1.2 - 15.4) (-1.2 - 15.2) (-1.1 - 13.9) (-1 - 13.3) (-1 - 13) (-0.9 - 11.6)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 4.2 4 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.9

(1.3 - 7) (1.2 - 6.6) (1.2 - 6.6) (1.2 - 6.5) (1.1 - 6) (1.1 - 5.7) (1 - 5.6) (0.9 - 4.9)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.1 2 1.7

(-2.5 - 7.8) (-2.4 - 7.4) (-2.3 - 7.3) (-2.3 - 7.2) (-2.1 - 6.4) (-1.9 - 6) (-1.9 - 5.8) (-1.6 - 5)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0 - 1) (0 - 0.9) (0 - 0.9) (0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1

(0.2 - 3.5) (0.2 - 3.3) (0.2 - 3.2) (0.1 - 2.9) (0.1 - 2.9) (0.1 - 2.7) (0.1 - 2.6) (0.1 - 2)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9

(0.5 - 2.6) (0.5 - 2.5) (0.4 - 2.4) (0.4 - 2.2) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.4 - 2) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.3 - 1.5)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

(-0.6 - 1.1) (-0.6 - 1.1) (-0.5 - 1) (-0.4 - 0.7) (-0.4 - 0.7) (-0.3 - 0.6) (-0.3 - 0.5) (-0.2 - 0.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

(0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0 - 0.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6

(0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.1)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just

Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Abt Associates Inc. 4-84 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just

Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards** Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4

(0.7 - 3.3) (0.6 - 3.1) (0.6 - 3.1) (0.6 - 2.9) (0.6 - 2.8) (0.5 - 2.6) (0.5 - 2.6) (0.5 - 2.3)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 7 6.6 6.6 6.1 6 5.7 5.6 5

(4.4 - 9.6) (4.2 - 9.1) (4.2 - 9.1) (3.9 - 8.4) (3.8 - 8.2) (3.6 - 7.7) (3.5 - 7.6) (3.1 - 6.8)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7

(-3 - 4.9) (-2.9 - 4.8) (-2.8 - 4.6) (-2.6 - 4.3) (-2.6 - 4.2) (-2.5 - 4.1) (-2.4 - 4) (-2.2 - 3.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1

(0.5 - 2.4) (0.5 - 2.4) (0.5 - 2.3) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.4 - 2) (0.4 - 2) (0.4 - 1.8)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9

(-2.6 - 5.6) (-2.5 - 5.4) (-2.4 - 5.2) (-2.2 - 4.7) (-2.1 - 4.5) (-2 - 4.3) (-1.8 - 4) (-1.5 - 3.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1 0.8

(0.5 - 2.3) (0.4 - 2.2) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2.4 2.1 2.2 2 2 1.8 1.9 1.7

(0.8 - 3.9) (0.7 - 3.5) (0.8 - 3.7) (0.7 - 3.4) (0.7 - 3.4) (0.6 - 3) (0.6 - 3.2) (0.6 - 2.9)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.

These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) St Louis

Sacramento

Washington

Philadelphia

Abt Associates Inc. 4-85 December 2006
Table 4-21. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(-0.7% - 0.9%) (-0.6% - 0.9%) (-0.6% - 0.9%) (-0.6% - 0.8%) (-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.5% - 0.7%) (-0.4% - 0.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2% 2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4%

(0.6% - 3.4%) (0.6% - 3.3%) (0.6% - 3.2%) (0.6% - 3%) (0.5% - 2.9%) (0.5% - 2.8%) (0.5% - 2.7%) (0.4% - 2.3%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%

(0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

(-0.4% - 1.7%) (-0.4% - 1.7%) (-0.4% - 1.6%) (-0.4% - 1.5%) (-0.4% - 1.5%) (-0.3% - 1.4%) (-0.3% - 1.4%) (-0.3% - 1.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.1% - 1.1%) (-0.1% - 1%) (-0.1% - 1%) (-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.8%) (-0.1% - 0.7%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2%

(-0.3% - 3.6%) (-0.3% - 3.4%) (-0.3% - 3.4%) (-0.3% - 3.3%) (-0.2% - 3%) (-0.2% - 2.9%) (-0.2% - 2.8%) (-0.2% - 2.5%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6%

(0.3% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.4%) (0.3% - 1.4%) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1.1%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

(-0.6% - 1.7%) (-0.5% - 1.6%) (-0.5% - 1.6%) (-0.5% - 1.6%) (-0.5% - 1.4%) (-0.4% - 1.3%) (-0.4% - 1.3%) (-0.3% - 1.1%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.1% - 1.3%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.8%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% 0%

(-0.2% - 0.4%) (-0.2% - 0.4%) (-0.2% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.2%) (-0.1% - 0.2%) (-0.1% - 0.2%) (-0.1% - 0.2%) (-0.1% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

O3 Standards**

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Cleveland

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Houston

Los Angeles

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Abt Associates Inc. 4-86 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

O3 Standards** Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9%

(0.8% - 1.8%) (0.8% - 1.7%) (0.8% - 1.7%) (0.7% - 1.6%) (0.7% - 1.5%) (0.7% - 1.5%) (0.7% - 1.4%) (0.6% - 1.3%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(-0.9% - 1.4%) (-0.8% - 1.4%) (-0.8% - 1.3%) (-0.8% - 1.3%) (-0.8% - 1.2%) (-0.7% - 1.2%) (-0.7% - 1.2%) (-0.6% - 1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(-0.5% - 1%) (-0.4% - 0.9%) (-0.4% - 0.9%) (-0.4% - 0.8%) (-0.4% - 0.8%) (-0.3% - 0.7%) (-0.3% - 0.7%) (-0.3% - 0.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

(0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

St Louis

Sacramento

Washington

Philadelphia

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-87 December 2006
Table 4-22. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3

(-2 - 14) (-2 - 13) (-2 - 12) (-2 - 11) (-1 - 10) (-1 - 10) (-1 - 9) (-1 - 7)

6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3

(2 - 10) (2 - 10) (2 - 9) (2 - 8) (2 - 8) (2 - 8) (2 - 7) (1 - 5)

16 15 14 12 11 10 9 7

(-14 - 45) (-13 - 42) (-12 - 39) (-11 - 35) (-10 - 31) (-9 - 29) (-8 - 26) (-6 - 19)

26 24 22 20 18 17 15 11

(10 - 41) (9 - 39) (9 - 36) (8 - 32) (7 - 29) (6 - 27) (6 - 24) (4 - 18)

11 11 10 9 9 8 8 6

(0 - 23) (0 - 21) (0 - 21) (0 - 18) (0 - 17) (0 - 17) (0 - 15) (0 - 12)

10 9 9 8 7 7 6 5

(4 - 15) (3 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 12) (3 - 12) (3 - 11) (2 - 10) (2 - 8)

11 10 10 9 8 7 7 5

(-1 - 23) (-1 - 21) (-1 - 20) (-1 - 20) (-1 - 17) (-1 - 15) (-1 - 14) (-1 - 11)

10 9 9 9 7 7 6 5

(4 - 16) (4 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 14) (3 - 12) (3 - 11) (2 - 10) (2 - 8)

8 7 7 6 6 5 5 3

(-1 - 16) (-1 - 15) (-1 - 15) (-1 - 12) (-1 - 12) (-1 - 11) (-1 - 10) (0 - 6)

8 7 7 6 6 5 5 3

(3 - 13) (3 - 12) (3 - 11) (2 - 10) (2 - 9) (2 - 8) (2 - 8) (1 - 5)

50 48 44 35 33 30 25 15

(0 - 98) (0 - 95) (0 - 88) (0 - 69) (0 - 65) (0 - 61) (0 - 50) (0 - 30)

57 56 51 40 38 35 29 17

(22 - 93) (21 - 90) (19 - 83) (15 - 65) (15 - 62) (13 - 57) (11 - 47) (7 - 28)

53 47 48 43 41 36 36 29

(17 - 89) (15 - 78) (15 - 80) (14 - 71) (13 - 68) (11 - 60) (11 - 60) (9 - 49)

39 34 35 31 30 26 26 21

(15 - 63) (13 - 55) (13 - 57) (12 - 50) (11 - 48) (10 - 42) (10 - 42) (8 - 34)

15 14 13 12 11 10 10 8

(1 - 28) (1 - 26) (1 - 26) (1 - 23) (1 - 22) (0 - 20) (0 - 20) (0 - 16)

12 11 11 10 9 9 8 7

(5 - 19) (4 - 18) (4 - 18) (4 - 16) (4 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 13) (3 - 11)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

New York

Los Angeles

Houston

Study Location

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

Cleveland

19 U.S. Cities

Philadelphia

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily

maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-pollutant

multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** Risk Assessment Location

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Abt Associates Inc. 4-88 December 2006
Table 4-23. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.5)

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(-0.3 - 0.8) (-0.2 - 0.8) (-0.2 - 0.7) (-0.2 - 0.7) (-0.2 - 0.6) (-0.2 - 0.5) (-0.2 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.4)

0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3)

0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4

(0 - 1.6) (0 - 1.5) (0 - 1.5) (0 - 1.3) (0 - 1.2) (0 - 1.2) (0 - 1.1) (0 - 0.9)

0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4

(0.3 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6)

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

(-0.1 - 1.1) (-0.1 - 1) (-0.1 - 1) (-0.1 - 1) (0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.5)

0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

(0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.2) (0.1 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1)

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 0.9) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.3)

0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2

(0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.3)

0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3

(0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.5)

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.2 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5

(0 - 1.9) (0 - 1.7) (0 - 1.7) (0 - 1.5) (0 - 1.5) (0 - 1.3) (0 - 1.3) (0 - 1.1)

0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4

(0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.7)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Philadelphia

19 U.S. Cities

Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards** Risk Assessment Location

Detroit

Houston

Houston

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

19 U.S. Cities

New York

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

New York

Detroit

Study Location

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily

maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-pollutant

multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

Cleveland

19 U.S. Cities

Philadelphia

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

Abt Associates Inc. 4-89 December 2006
Table 4-24. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based Adjusting on 2004 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%

(-0.2% - 1.4%) (-0.2% - 1.4%) (-0.2% - 1.3%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.8%)

0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.3% - 0.9%) (-0.3% - 0.8%) (-0.2% - 0.8%) (-0.2% - 0.7%) (-0.2% - 0.6%) (-0.2% - 0.6%) (-0.2% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.4%)

0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%)

0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

(0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(-0.1% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%)

0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.3%)

0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.2%)

0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%

(0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2%

(0.3% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.2% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4%

(0% - 1.5%) (0% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.9%)

0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.3% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

New York

Los Angeles

Houston

Study Location

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

Cleveland

19 U.S. Cities

Philadelphia

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-pollutant multi-city model

estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

O3 Standards** Risk Assessment Location

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Abt Associates Inc. 4-90 December 2006
Table 4-25. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6

(-3 - 20) (-3 - 20) (-3 - 19) (-3 - 18) (-2 - 17) (-2 - 17) (-2 - 15) (-2 - 13)

9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6

(4 - 15) (4 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 13) (3 - 12) (3 - 12) (3 - 11) (2 - 9)

26 25 24 22 21 20 19 16

(-23 - 73) (-22 - 70) (-21 - 68) (-20 - 64) (-19 - 60) (-18 - 57) (-17 - 54) (-14 - 46)

42 40 39 36 34 33 31 26

(16 - 68) (15 - 65) (15 - 63) (14 - 59) (13 - 55) (13 - 53) (12 - 50) (10 - 43)

30 28 28 26 25 24 24 21

(-1 - 59) (-1 - 57) (-1 - 56) (-1 - 52) (-1 - 51) (-1 - 49) (-1 - 47) (-1 - 42)

25 24 24 22 21 21 20 18

(10 - 40) (9 - 39) (9 - 38) (8 - 35) (8 - 34) (8 - 33) (8 - 32) (7 - 29)

21 20 19 19 17 16 16 13

(-2 - 44) (-2 - 41) (-2 - 40) (-2 - 40) (-2 - 36) (-2 - 33) (-2 - 33) (-2 - 28)

19 18 18 17 16 15 14 12

(7 - 31) (7 - 29) (7 - 29) (7 - 28) (6 - 25) (6 - 24) (5 - 23) (5 - 20)

6 6 6 5 5 4 4 2

(-1 - 13) (-1 - 12) (-1 - 12) (-1 - 10) (-1 - 10) (-1 - 9) (0 - 8) (0 - 5)

6 6 6 5 5 4 4 2

(2 - 10) (2 - 10) (2 - 9) (2 - 8) (2 - 7) (2 - 7) (1 - 6) (1 - 4)

38 37 33 24 24 22 18 11

(0 - 76) (0 - 73) (0 - 66) (0 - 48) (0 - 47) (0 - 43) (0 - 35) (0 - 21)

45 43 39 28 27 25 20 12

(17 - 72) (16 - 69) (15 - 62) (11 - 45) (10 - 44) (10 - 41) (8 - 33) (5 - 20)

102 93 95 89 86 78 79 70

(33 - 170) (30 - 155) (31 - 159) (28 - 148) (27 - 143) (25 - 130) (25 - 133) (22 - 116)

75 68 70 65 63 57 58 51

(29 - 120) (26 - 109) (27 - 113) (25 - 105) (24 - 101) (22 - 92) (22 - 94) (19 - 82)

26 25 25 23 23 21 21 19

(1 - 51) (1 - 48) (1 - 48) (1 - 44) (1 - 44) (1 - 41) (1 - 41) (1 - 36)

22 21 21 19 19 18 17 15

(8 - 35) (8 - 33) (8 - 33) (7 - 30) (7 - 30) (7 - 28) (7 - 28) (6 - 25)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

New York

Los Angeles

Houston

Study Location

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

Cleveland

19 U.S. Cities

Philadelphia

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily

maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-pollutant

multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Risk Assessment Location

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Abt Associates Inc. 4-91 December 2006
Table 4-26. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4

(-0.2 - 1.4) (-0.2 - 1.4) (-0.2 - 1.3) (-0.2 - 1.2) (-0.2 - 1.1) (-0.2 - 1.1) (-0.1 - 1) (-0.1 - 0.9)

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4

(0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6)

0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

(-0.4 - 1.4) (-0.4 - 1.3) (-0.4 - 1.3) (-0.4 - 1.2) (-0.3 - 1.1) (-0.3 - 1.1) (-0.3 - 1) (-0.3 - 0.9)

0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

(0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.3 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8)

2.1 2 2 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5

(-0.1 - 4.2) (-0.1 - 4.1) (-0.1 - 4) (0 - 3.7) (0 - 3.6) (0 - 3.5) (0 - 3.4) (0 - 3)

1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3

(0.7 - 2.9) (0.7 - 2.8) (0.6 - 2.7) (0.6 - 2.5) (0.6 - 2.5) (0.6 - 2.4) (0.5 - 2.3) (0.5 - 2.1)

1 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6

(-0.1 - 2.1) (-0.1 - 2) (-0.1 - 2) (-0.1 - 1.9) (-0.1 - 1.7) (-0.1 - 1.6) (-0.1 - 1.6) (-0.1 - 1.3)

0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6

(0.4 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.3 - 1.1) (0.3 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1)

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1)

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

(0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.2) (0.1 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1)

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.2)

0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

1.1 1 1.1 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.8

(0.4 - 1.9) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.8) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.2 - 1.3)

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6

(0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.3 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 0.9)

1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2

(0.1 - 3.4) (0.1 - 3.2) (0.1 - 3.2) (0.1 - 2.9) (0.1 - 2.9) (0.1 - 2.7) (0.1 - 2.7) (0.1 - 2.4)

1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1

(0.5 - 2.3) (0.5 - 2.2) (0.5 - 2.2) (0.5 - 2) (0.5 - 2) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.4 - 1.6)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Philadelphia

19 U.S. Cities

Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards** Risk Assessment Location

Detroit

Houston

Houston

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

19 U.S. Cities

New York

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

New York

Detroit

Study Location

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily

maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-pollutant

multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

Cleveland

19 U.S. Cities

Philadelphia

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

Abt Associates Inc. 4-92 December 2006
Table 4-27. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6%

(-0.3% - 2.1%) (-0.3% - 2.1%) (-0.3% - 1.9%) (-0.3% - 1.8%) (-0.2% - 1.7%) (-0.2% - 1.7%) (-0.2% - 1.6%) (-0.2% - 1.3%)

0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%

(0.4% - 1.5%) (0.4% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.4%) (0.3% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%)

0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(-0.5% - 1.4%) (-0.4% - 1.4%) (-0.4% - 1.3%) (-0.4% - 1.2%) (-0.4% - 1.2%) (-0.4% - 1.1%) (-0.3% - 1.1%) (-0.3% - 0.9%)

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%

(0.3% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.8%)

1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1%

(0% - 3.2%) (0% - 3%) (0% - 3%) (0% - 2.8%) (0% - 2.7%) (0% - 2.6%) (0% - 2.5%) (0% - 2.3%)

1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1%

(0.5% - 2.1%) (0.5% - 2.1%) (0.5% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.7%) (0.4% - 1.5%)

0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%

(-0.1% - 1.8%) (-0.1% - 1.7%) (-0.1% - 1.7%) (-0.1% - 1.6%) (-0.1% - 1.5%) (-0.1% - 1.4%) (-0.1% - 1.3%) (-0.1% - 1.1%)

0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%

(0.3% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.8%)

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

(0% - 1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.3%)

0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

1.1% 1% 1.1% 1% 1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%

(0.4% - 1.9%) (0.3% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.8%) (0.3% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.3%)

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6%

(0.3% - 1.4%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 0.9%)

1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1%

(0.1% - 2.8%) (0.1% - 2.6%) (0.1% - 2.6%) (0.1% - 2.4%) (0.1% - 2.4%) (0.1% - 2.2%) (0.1% - 2.2%) (0% - 2%)

1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1% 1% 1% 0.9% 0.8%

(0.5% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.7%) (0.4% - 1.6%) (0.4% - 1.5%) (0.4% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.3%)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

New York

Los Angeles

Houston

Study Location

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

Cleveland

19 U.S. Cities

Philadelphia

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a single-pollutant multi-city model

estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

O3 Standards** Risk Assessment Location

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Abt Associates Inc. 4-93 December 2006
Table 4-28. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 43 38 39 35 33 29 29 24

(15 - 72) (13 - 63) (13 - 65) (12 - 58) (11 - 55) (10 - 48) (10 - 49) (8 - 39)

Huang et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 53 47 48 43 41 36 36 29

(17 - 89) (15 - 78) (15 - 80) (14 - 71) (13 - 68) (11 - 60) (11 - 60) (9 - 49)

all 24 hr avg. none 39 34 35 31 30 26 26 21

(15 - 63) (13 - 55) (13 - 57) (12 - 50) (11 - 48) (10 - 42) (10 - 42) (8 - 34)

all 24 hr avg. CO 22 19 20 17 17 14 15 12

(6 - 37) (6 - 32) (6 - 33) (5 - 29) (5 - 28) (4 - 25) (4 - 25) (3 - 20)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 19 16 17 15 14 13 13 10

(3 - 34) (3 - 30) (3 - 31) (3 - 27) (3 - 26) (2 - 23) (2 - 23) (2 - 19)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 23 20 21 19 18 16 16 13

(-9 - 55) (-8 - 48) (-8 - 50) (-7 - 44) (-7 - 42) (-6 - 37) (-6 - 37) (-5 - 30)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 16 14 14 13 12 11 11 9

(0 - 32) (0 - 28) (0 - 29) (0 - 25) (0 - 24) (0 - 21) (0 - 22) (0 - 17)

all 1 hr max. none 366 334 341 314 304 279 278 241

(89 - 644) (81 - 588) (82 - 599) (76 - 551) (73 - 534) (67 - 490) (67 - 489) (58 - 424)

all 1 hr max. none 313 286 291 268 259 238 238 206

(66 - 559) (61 - 510) (62 - 520) (57 - 479) (55 - 464) (51 - 425) (51 - 425) (44 - 368)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

*****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.

******New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

3-day lag

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Thurston et al.

(1992)******

Thurston et al.

(1992)******

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

respiratory illness

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

asthma

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

1-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. 4-94 December 2006
Table 4-29. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

Huang et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3

(0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.5)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.2 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.4) (-0.1 - 0.4) (-0.1 - 0.3)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2)

all 1 hr max. none 4.6 4.2 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.5 3

(1.1 - 8) (1 - 7.3) (1 - 7.5) (0.9 - 6.9) (0.9 - 6.7) (0.8 - 6.1) (0.8 - 6.1) (0.7 - 5.3)

all 1 hr max. none 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.2 3 3 2.6

(0.8 - 7) (0.8 - 6.4) (0.8 - 6.5) (0.7 - 6) (0.7 - 5.8) (0.6 - 5.3) (0.6 - 5.3) (0.5 - 4.6)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

*****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.

******New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Health Effects*

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)*****

Mortality, nonaccidental

0-day lag Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

respiratory illness

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

asthma

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Thurston et al.

(1992)******

Thurston et al.

(1992)******

3-day lag

1-day lag

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Lag Exposure

Metric

0-day lag

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Study Ages

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Abt Associates Inc. 4-95 December 2006
Table 4-30. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

Huang et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.2% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 1 hr max. none 1% 0.9% 1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%

(0.3% - 1.8%) (0.2% - 1.7%) (0.2% - 1.7%) (0.2% - 1.6%) (0.2% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.4%) (0.2% - 1.4%) (0.2% - 1.2%)

all 1 hr max. none 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2% 2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6%

(0.5% - 4.3%) (0.5% - 3.9%) (0.5% - 4%) (0.4% - 3.6%) (0.4% - 3.5%) (0.4% - 3.2%) (0.4% - 3.2%) (0.3% - 2.8%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

*****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.

******New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

3-day lag

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Thurston et al.

(1992)******

Thurston et al.

(1992)******

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

respiratory illness

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

asthma

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

1-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. 4-96 December 2006
Table 4-31. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 84 76 78 73 70 64 65 57

(28 - 139) (25 - 126) (26 - 130) (24 - 121) (23 - 116) (21 - 106) (22 - 108) (19 - 95)

Huang et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 102 93 95 89 86 78 79 70

(33 - 170) (30 - 155) (31 - 159) (28 - 148) (27 - 143) (25 - 130) (25 - 133) (22 - 116)

all 24 hr avg. none 75 68 70 65 63 57 58 51

(29 - 120) (26 - 109) (27 - 113) (25 - 105) (24 - 101) (22 - 92) (22 - 94) (19 - 82)

all 24 hr avg. CO 42 38 39 36 35 32 32 28

(12 - 71) (11 - 64) (11 - 66) (11 - 61) (10 - 59) (9 - 54) (9 - 55) (8 - 48)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 36 33 34 31 30 28 28 25

(6 - 66) (6 - 60) (6 - 61) (6 - 57) (5 - 55) (5 - 50) (5 - 51) (4 - 45)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 45 41 42 39 37 34 35 30

(-17 - 105) (-16 - 96) (-16 - 98) (-15 - 91) (-14 - 88) (-13 - 80) (-13 - 82) (-12 - 72)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 31 28 29 27 26 23 24 21

(0 - 61) (0 - 56) (0 - 57) (0 - 53) (0 - 51) (0 - 47) (0 - 48) (0 - 42)

all 1 hr max. none 513 472 483 452 439 404 410 365

(124 - 902) (114 - 830) (117 - 850) (109 - 795) (106 - 772) (98 - 710) (99 - 721) (88 - 642)

all 1 hr max. none 438 403 413 386 375 345 350 312

(93 - 783) (86 - 720) (88 - 738) (82 - 690) (80 - 670) (73 - 617) (75 - 626) (66 - 558)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

*****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.

******New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

3-day lag

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Thurston et al.

(1992)******

Thurston et al.

(1992)******

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

respiratory illness

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

asthma

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

1-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. 4-97 December 2006
Table 4-32. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6

(0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.1)

Huang et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 1.1 1 1.1 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.8

(0.4 - 1.9) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.8) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.2 - 1.3)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6

(0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.3 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 0.9)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

(0.1 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

(0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0 - 0.5)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

(-0.2 - 1.2) (-0.2 - 1.1) (-0.2 - 1.1) (-0.2 - 1) (-0.2 - 1) (-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.8)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5)

all 1 hr max. none 6.4 5.9 6 5.6 5.5 5 5.1 4.6

(1.5 - 11.3) (1.4 - 10.4) (1.5 - 10.6) (1.4 - 9.9) (1.3 - 9.6) (1.2 - 8.9) (1.2 - 9) (1.1 - 8)

all 1 hr max. none 5.5 5 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.3 4.4 3.9

(1.2 - 9.8) (1.1 - 9) (1.1 - 9.2) (1 - 8.6) (1 - 8.4) (0.9 - 7.7) (0.9 - 7.8) (0.8 - 7)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

*****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.

******New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Health Effects*

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)*****

Mortality, nonaccidental

0-day lag Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

respiratory illness

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

asthma

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Thurston et al.

(1992)******

Thurston et al.

(1992)******

3-day lag

1-day lag

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Lag Exposure

Metric

0-day lag

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Study Ages

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Abt Associates Inc. 4-98 December 2006
Table 4-33. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: New York, NY, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Huang et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 1.1% 1% 1.1% 1% 1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%

(0.4% - 1.9%) (0.3% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.8%) (0.3% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.3%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6%

(0.3% - 1.4%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 0.9%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(-0.2% - 1.2%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.2% - 1%) (-0.2% - 1%) (-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.8%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%)

all 1 hr max. none 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1%

(0.4% - 2.6%) (0.3% - 2.3%) (0.3% - 2.4%) (0.3% - 2.2%) (0.3% - 2.2%) (0.3% - 2%) (0.3% - 2%) (0.2% - 1.8%)

all 1 hr max. none 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.6% 2.7% 2.4%

(0.7% - 6%) (0.7% - 5.5%) (0.7% - 5.6%) (0.6% - 5.3%) (0.6% - 5.1%) (0.6% - 4.7%) (0.6% - 4.8%) (0.5% - 4.2%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

*****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.

******New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

3-day lag

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Thurston et al.

(1992)******

Thurston et al.

(1992)******

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

respiratory illness

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

asthma

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

1-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. 4-99 December 2006
Abt Associates Inc. 4-100 December 2006

The results in this portion of the risk assessment follow the same patterns as the

results discussed in Section 4.2.1 for risks associated with “as is” O3 concentrations,

because they are largely driven by the same C-R function coefficient estimates and

confidence or credible intervals.

All results discussed below are for April through September. The top graph on

each page shows results based on 2004 air quality, and the bottom graph shows results

based on 2002 air quality. Figures 4-9a and b show estimated percent of non-accidental

mortality related to O3 concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour O3 standard, based

on single-pollutant, single-city models across all locations for which such models were

available. Tables 4-16, 4-17, and 4-18 show estimates of incidence, incidence per

100,000 relevant population, and percent of total incidence, respectively, of nonaccidental mortality related to O3 concentrations that just meet the current and alternative

8-hour O3 standards, based on both single-city and multi-city models, using air quality

data for 2004. Tables 4-19, 4-20, and 4-21 show estimates of the same measures of nonaccidental mortality risk, using air quality data for 2002.

Using 2004 O3 concentrations, estimates of non-accidental mortality related to O3

concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour O3 standards ranged from 0.3 per 100,000

relevant population in Atlanta (Bell et al., 2004), Houston (Bell et al., 2004 – 95 U.S.

Cities), and Los Angeles (Bell et al., 2004) to 5.8 per 100,000 relevant population in

Chicago (Schwartz, 2004). The corresponding results based on 2002 O3 concentrations

ranged from 0.3 per 100,000 relevant population in Houston (Bell et al., 2004 – 95 U.S.

Cities) and Los Angeles (Bell et al., 2004) to 7.9 per 100,000 relevant population in

Chicago (Schwartz, 2004). As was the case for the analysis of effects associated with “as

is” O3 concentrations, estimated O3-related (non-accidental) mortality reported by

Schwartz (2004) for Chicago, Detroit, and Houston, based on both the single-city and the

multi-city C-R functions, tend to be higher than other estimates in those locations in large

part because Schwartz used the 1-hr maximum O3 concentration, rather than the 24-hour

average, as the exposure metric. The changes from 1-hr maximum O3 concentrations that

just meet the current 8-hour O3 standard to PRB 1-hr maximum O3 concentrations were

generally larger in the assessment locations than the corresponding changes using the 24-

hr average metric.

As a percent of total incidence, estimated non-accidental mortality related to O3

concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour O3 standard, based on 2004 O3

concentrations, ranged from 0.1 percent in several locations (Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit,

Houston, Los Angeles, New York, and St. Louis) to 1.5 percent in Chicago (Schwartz,

2004). The corresponding results based on 2002 O3 concentrations ranged from 0.1

percent in Houston and Los Angeles to 2 percent in Chicago. Although 7 of the 12

estimates from single-city single-pollutant models shown in Figures 4-9a and b were not

statistically significant, all 12 were positive.

Figures 4-10a and b show estimated percent of cardiorespiratory mortality and

cases per 100,000 relevant population related to O3 concentrations that just meet the

current 8-hour O3 standard, based on multi-city single-pollutant versus multi-pollutant
Abt Associates Inc. 4-101 December 2006

models from Huang et al. (2004) across all locations for which such models were

available. Tables 4-22, 4-23, and 4-24 show estimates of incidence, incidence per

100,000 relevant population, and percent of total incidence, respectively, of

cardiorespiratory mortality related to O3 concentrations that just meet the current and

alternative 8-hour O3 standards in all risk assessment locations covered in Huang et al.

(2004), using air quality data for 2004. Tables 4-25, 4-26, and 4-27 show estimates of the

same measures of cardiorespiratory mortality risk, using air quality data for 2002.

Using 2004 O3 concentrations, estimates of O3-related cardiorespiratory mortality

related to O3 concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour O3 standards ranged from

0.2 per 100,000 relevant population in Houston (using both the single-city and the multicity C-R functions) to 1.0 per 100,000 relevant population in Philadelphia (using the

single-city C-R function). The corresponding results based on 2002 O3 concentrations

ranged from 0.2 per 100,000 relevant population in Houston to 2.1 per 100,000 relevant

population in Cleveland.

As a percent of total incidence, using 2004 O3 concentrations, estimated O3-

related cardiorespiratory mortality ranged from 0.3 percent in Chicago (using the singlecity C-R function) to 0.8 percent in Los Angeles (using the multi-city C-R function) and

Philadelphia (using the single-city C-R function). The corresponding results based on

2002 O3 concentrations ranged from 0.3 percent in Houston to 1.6 percent in Cleveland.

All of the estimates of O3-related cardiorespiratory mortality based on Huang et

al. (2004), from both single-pollutant and multi-pollutant models (see Figures 10a and b)

and from both single-city and multi-city models (see Tables 4-22 through 4-27) were

positive. Five of the single-city single-pollutant “shrinkage” estimates (for Atlanta,

Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, and Houston) and the estimate from the multi-city multipollutant model with PM10 were not statistically significant. All the rest of the estimates

of O3-related cardiorespiratory mortality based on Huang et al. (2004) were statistically

significant.

Figures 4-11a and b show estimated percent of non-accidental mortality and cases

per 100,000 relevant population related to O3 concentrations that just meet the current 8-

hour O3 standard, based on single-city versus multi-city models across all locations for

which both types of model were available. The results followed the same patterns as

were observed in the analysis of effects associated with “as is” O3 concentrations above

PRB levels, discussed in Section 4.2.1 above (see also Figures 4-5a and b). Similarly,

the results seen in Figures 4-12a and b, for cardiorespiratory mortality, followed the same

patterns as are evident in the corresponding analysis of “as is” O3 concentrations (see

Figures 4-5a and b).

The effect of O3 lag structure on O3-related unscheduled hospital admissions in

Detroit (Ito 2003), shown in Figures 4-13a and b, followed the same patterns as were

evident in the analysis of risks associated with “as is” O3 concentrations. Estimated

pneumonia hospital admissions associated with O3 concentrations that just meet the

current 8-hour O3 standard increased monotonically with increasing lag, with the greatest
Abt Associates Inc. 4-102 December 2006

estimate predicted by a 3-day lag model. None of the estimates of O3-related

unscheduled hospital admissions in Detroit were statistically significant.

Figures 4-14a and b and 4-15a and b show the estimated annual percent of nonaccidental mortality and cardiorespiratory mortality, respectively, associated with shortterm exposure to O3 concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour daily maximum

standard that fall within specified ranges. The pattern of results was similar to the pattern

seen for “as is” O3 concentrations. Using simulated O3 concentrations that just meet the

current 8-hour standard based on 2004 air quality data, all O3-related non-accidental

mortality was associated with 24-hr average O3 concentrations less than 0.06 ppm, and

most of that was associated with 24-hr average O3 concentrations less than 0.04 ppm.

Using simulated O3 concentrations that just meet the current 8-hour standard based on

2002 air quality data, all O3-related non-accidental mortality was associated with 24-hr

average O3 concentrations less than 0.08 ppm, and the great majority was associated with

24-hr average O3 concentrations less than 0.06 ppm. The results for cardiorespiratory

mortality follow a similar pattern.

Comparisons of alternative 8-hour daily maximum standards to the current

standard are shown in Figures 4-16a and b and 4-17a and b for non-accidental and

cardiorespiratory mortality, respectively. At the most stringent standard shown (0.064

ppm 4th daily maximum), the aggregate O3-related non-accidental mortality is estimated

to be 55 percent of what it would be at the current standard, using simulated O3

concentrations that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour standards based on 2004

air quality data. Using 2002 air quality data, the corresponding result is 40 percent. The

patterns for cardiorespiratory mortality are similar. The aggregate O3-related

cardiorespiratory mortality at the most stringent standard shown is estimated to be about

57 percent of what it would be at the current standard, using simulated O3 concentrations

that just meet the current and alternative 8-hour standards based on 2004 air quality data.

Using 2002 air quality data, the corresponding result is about 42 percent.

4.2.2.2 Results for five locations for the current standard and two alternative

standards, based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 air quality data

As an alternative to the original seven 8-hour daily maximum standards, we

considered a smaller set of three 8-hour daily maximum standards, including the current

standard (0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum) and two alternative standards from the original

set of seven (0.074 ppm, 4th daily maximum and 0.064 ppm. 4th daily maximum). Nonaccidental and cardiorespiratory mortality risk results for these alternative standards, as

well as for a year of recent air quality, are shown for a subset of locations – Atlanta,

Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York – using 2002 air quality data in Tables 4-

34 through 4-36 for non-accidental mortality and Tables 4-37 through 4-39 for

cardiorespiratory mortality. Tables showing the corresponding results based on 2003 and

2004 air quality are given in Appendix H. The results are shown in terms of percent

reductions in O3-related mortality when O3 concentrations are changed from those that

just meet the current standard to a recent year of air quality as well as to the two
Abt Associates Inc. 4-103 December 2006

alternative 8-hour standards in Figures 4-18a, b, and c, based on 2004, 2003, and 2002 air

quality data respectively.

Figures 4-18a, b, and c show that, based on adjusting air quality data from all

three years, the greatest reductions in mortality risk (relative to the mortality risks at the

current standard) occur for standards which specify 0.064 ppm as the target

concentration, and the next greatest risk reductions occur at standards which specify

0.074 as the target concentration. Based on adjusting 2004 air quality, mortality risk

reductions (from risks at the current standard) at a standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th daily

maximum ranged from 44% in New York to 70% in Los Angeles. The corresponding

ranges of percent decreases in mortality risk were from 22% (in Atlanta) to 34% (in Los

Angeles) for a standard of 0.074, 4th daily maximum. In all five locations, the percent

decreases in mortality risk (from risk at the current standard) were higher at the two 0.064

ppm standard than at the 0.074 ppm standard. The same patterns are observed when just

meeting standards is based on adjusting 2003 and 2002 air quality data.
Table 4-34. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and

Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

2002 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 7 6 4

(-37 - 54) (-30 - 43) (-24 - 35) (-19 - 27)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 14 11 9

(6 - 29) (5 - 23) (4 - 19) (3 - 14)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 69 55 44 34

(23 - 115) (18 - 91) (15 - 74) (11 - 57)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 505 427 361 294

(161 - 840) (136 - 712) (115 - 603) (93 - 493)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 191 161 136 111

(60 - 321) (51 - 271) (43 - 229) (35 - 187)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 29 18 13 7

(2 - 57) (1 - 34) (1 - 25) (0 - 13)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 14 9 6 3

(5 - 24) (3 - 15) (2 - 10) (1 - 5)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 85 63 51 36

(8 - 161) (6 - 119) (5 - 97) (3 - 69)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 71 53 43 30

(22 - 119) (16 - 88) (13 - 72) (9 - 51)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 51 24 15 7

(-124 - 224) (-58 - 105) (-35 - 64) (-16 - 29)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 110 52 32 14

(37 - 184) (17 - 86) (11 - 53) (5 - 23)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 105 84 70 57

(35 - 174) (28 - 139) (23 - 116) (19 - 95)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,

4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level

(e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Atlanta

Chicago

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with 2002 O3

Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and

Location Study Lag Alternative O3 Standards** Exposure

Metric

Abt Associates Inc. 4-104 December 2006
Table 4-35. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations

that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September,

Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

2002 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3

(-2.5 - 3.6) (-2 - 2.9) (-1.6 - 2.4) (-1.3 - 1.8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6

(0.4 - 1.9) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.3 1 0.8 0.6

(0.4 - 2.1) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.2 - 1.1)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 9.4 7.9 6.7 5.5

(3 - 15.6) (2.5 - 13.2) (2.1 - 11.2) (1.7 - 9.2)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 3.6 3 2.5 2.1

(1.1 - 6) (0.9 - 5) (0.8 - 4.3) (0.6 - 3.5)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2

(0.1 - 1.7) (0 - 1) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

(0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.5 1.8 1.5 1.1

(0.2 - 4.7) (0.2 - 3.5) (0.1 - 2.9) (0.1 - 2)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.1 1.5 1.3 0.9

(0.7 - 3.5) (0.5 - 2.6) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.3 - 1.5)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1

(-1.3 - 2.4) (-0.6 - 1.1) (-0.4 - 0.7) (-0.2 - 0.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1

(0.4 - 1.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.1 - 0.6) (0 - 0.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6

(0.4 - 2) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1.1)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is

0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year

period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Atlanta

Chicago

Location Study

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Lag Exposure

Metric

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with 2002 O3 Concentrations and O3 Concentration that Just

Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-105 December 2006
Table 4-36. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations*

2002 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(-0.8% - 1.2%) (-0.7% - 0.9%) (-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.4% - 0.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.4% 2% 1.7% 1.4%

(0.8% - 4%) (0.6% - 3.4%) (0.5% - 2.9%) (0.4% - 2.3%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5%

(0.3% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 0.9%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4%

(0.1% - 1.8%) (0.1% - 1.3%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.8%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%

(0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.2% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.2%) (-0.1% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 --

0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or

below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Atlanta

Chicago

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with

2002 O3 Concentrations and O3 Concentration that Just Meet the Current

Location Study Lag and Alternative O3 Standards** Exposure

Metric

Abt Associates Inc. 4-106 December 2006
Table 4-37. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

2002 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

11 9 7 6

(-4 - 25) (-3 - 20) (-2 - 17) (-2 - 13)

11 9 8 6

(4 - 18) (4 - 15) (3 - 12) (2 - 9)

32 26 21 16

(-29 - 93) (-23 - 73) (-19 - 60) (-14 - 46)

53 42 34 26

(20 - 86) (16 - 68) (13 - 55) (10 - 43)

10 6 5 2

(-1 - 22) (-1 - 13) (-1 - 10) (0 - 5)

11 6 5 2

(4 - 17) (2 - 10) (2 - 7) (1 - 4)

82 38 24 11

(1 - 162) (0 - 76) (0 - 47) (0 - 21)

95 45 27 12

(36 - 153) (17 - 72) (10 - 44) (5 - 20)

128 102 86 70

(41 - 213) (33 - 170) (27 - 143) (22 - 116)

94 75 63 51

(36 - 151) (29 - 120) (24 - 101) (19 - 82)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Study Location

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a

single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

Atlanta

New York

Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

O3 Standards** Risk Assessment Location

Houston

Los Angeles

Atlanta

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,

4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level

(e.g., 0.084 ppm).

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

New York

Los Angeles

Houston

Abt Associates Inc. 4-107 December 2006
Table 4-38. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that

Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on

Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

2002 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4

(-0.2 - 1.7) (-0.2 - 1.4) (-0.2 - 1.1) (-0.1 - 0.9)

0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4

(0.3 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.6)

0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3

(-0.5 - 1.7) (-0.4 - 1.4) (-0.3 - 1.1) (-0.3 - 0.9)

1 0.8 0.6 0.5

(0.4 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.8)

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.1)

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

(0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1)

0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1

(0 - 1.7) (0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.2)

1 0.5 0.3 0.1

(0.4 - 1.6) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.5) (0 - 0.2)

1.4 1.1 1 0.8

(0.5 - 2.4) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.2 - 1.3)

1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6

(0.4 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.1) (0.2 - 0.9)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Study Location

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Atlanta

New York

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a

single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,

4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level

(e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just

Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards** Risk Assessment Location

Houston

Houston

Atlanta

Chicago

New York

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. 4-108 December 2006
Table 4-39. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations*

2002 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6%

(-0.4% - 2.6%) (-0.3% - 2.1%) (-0.2% - 1.7%) (-0.2% - 1.3%)

1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6%

(0.5% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1%)

0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%

(-0.6% - 1.8%) (-0.5% - 1.4%) (-0.4% - 1.2%) (-0.3% - 0.9%)

1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5%

(0.4% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 0.8%)

0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.1% - 1%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.2%)

0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.2%)

1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

(0% - 2.2%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.3%)

1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%

(0.5% - 2.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

1.4% 1.1% 1% 0.8%

(0.5% - 2.4%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.2% - 1.3%)

1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%

(0.4% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.4%) (0.3% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 0.9%)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Study Location

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Atlanta

New York

Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Alternative O3 Standards** Risk Assessment Location

Houston

Los Angeles

Atlanta

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a

single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,

4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level

(e.g., 0.084 ppm).

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

19 U.S. Cities

New York

Los Angeles

Houston

Abt Associates Inc. 4-109 December 2006
Abt Associates Inc. 4-110 December 2006

Figure 4-18. Estimated Percent Reductions From the Current Standard to Two Alternative

Standards in O3-Related Non-Accidental Mortality, Separately for Each Location (Based on Bell et

al., 2004 -- 95 U.S. Cities)*

Figure 4-18a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Atlanta: 9 (3 - 15); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%)

Chicago: 33 (11 - 55); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%)

Houston: 11 (4 - 18); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)

Los Angeles: 67 (22 - 111); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.4%)

New York: 43 (15 - 72); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)

* An 8-hr average standard, denoted m/n is characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily

maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 – 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.

The 4th daily maximum standards, denoted m/4, require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima

over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm). The incidence (and 95% credible

interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3 concentrations just meet the

current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-111 December 2006

Figure 4-18b. Based on 2003 Air Quality

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2003 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Atlanta: 9 (3 - 15); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%)

Chicago: 55 (18 - 91); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.4%)

Houston: 9 (3 - 15); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)

Los Angeles: 47 (16 - 78); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%)

New York: 54 (18 - 90); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-112 December 2006

Figure 4-18c. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-160%

-140%

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Atlanta: 14 (5 - 23); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.5%)

Chicago: 55 (18 - 91); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.4%)

Houston: 9 (3 - 15); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)

Los Angeles: 52 (17 - 86); 0.2% (0.1% - 0.3%)

New York: 84 (28 - 139); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.4%)
Abt Associates Inc. 4-113 December 2006

4.3 Sensitivity Analyses

Because of the uncertainty surrounding estimates of PRB, we ran two sets of

sensitivity analyses addressing this concern. First, we considered the impact of altering

the estimates of PRB on our estimates of non-accidental mortality risk. Estimates of the

percent of total incidence of non-accidental mortality associated with “as is” O3

concentrations above PRB, based on (1) the original PRB estimates, (2) lower PRB

estimates (the original estimates minus 5 ppb in all locations except Atlanta; the original

estimates minus 10 ppb in Atlanta), and (3) higher PRB estimates (the original estimates

plus 5 ppb in all locations) are shown together in Tables 4-40 and 4-41, based on 2004 air

quality data and 2002 air quality data, respectively. The corresponding results using

incidence and incidence per 100,000 relevant population as the measures of mortality risk

are given in Appendix I, in Tables I-1 through I-4.

Corresponding estimates of the percent of total incidence of non-accidental mortality

associated with O3 concentrations that just meet the current (0.084 ppm, 4th daily

maximum) 8-hour O3 standard, and each of two alternative 8-hour O3 standards (0.074

ppm, 4th daily maximum and 0.064 ppm, 4th daily maximum) based on each of the three

alternative sets of PRB estimates (original, lower, and higher) are shown in Tables 4-42

through 4-47. Tables 4-42 and 4-43 show estimates for the current standard, based on

adjusting 2004 and 2002 air quality data, respectively. Tables 4-44, and 4-45 are the

corresponding tables for the 0.074 ppm, 4th daily maximum standard, and Tables 4-46,

and 4-47 are the corresponding tables for the 0.064 ppm, 4th daily maximum standard.

The corresponding results using incidence and incidence per 100,000 relevant population

as the measures of mortality risk are given in Appendix I.

Finally, location-specific graphs showing the impact of the alternative PRB estimates

on the estimated percent change from the current standard to alternative standards are

given in Figures 4-19a and 4-19b, based on 2004 and 2002 air quality data, respectively.

In addition, we estimated mortality risk associated with “as is” O3 concentrations

above 0 ppb. The results are shown in Tables 4-48 and 4-49, based on 2004 and 2002 air

quality data, respectively.
Table 4-40. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:

April - September, 2004*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

(-0.6% - 0.8%) (-1.3% - 1.9%) (-0.3% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.2% - 1%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.2%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.9% 2.3% 1.4%

(0.6% - 3.1%) (0.7% - 3.9%) (0.4% - 2.4%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%

(0.2% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 0.9%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%

(-0.2% - 0.9%) (-0.4% - 1.6%) (-0.1% - 0.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.2%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%

(-0.1% - 0.8%) (-0.2% - 1.5%) (-0.1% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.4% 1.7% 1%

(-0.2% - 2.9%) (-0.3% - 3.6%) (-0.2% - 2.2%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.7% 0.9% 0.6%

(0.2% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%

(-0.4% - 1.2%) (-0.7% - 2.3%) (-0.2% - 0.6%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%

(0% - 0.7%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.2%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1% 1.2% 0.9%

(0.1% - 1.9%) (0.1% - 2.3%) (0.1% - 1.6%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.9% 1% 0.7%

(0.3% - 1.4%) (0.3% - 1.7%) (0.2% - 1.2%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(-0.5% - 1%) (-0.8% - 1.4%) (-0.4% - 0.7%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%

(0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 1% 1.6% 0.6%

(0.6% - 1.4%) (1% - 2.2%) (0.3% - 0.8%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

(-0.9% - 1.4%) (-1.2% - 2%) (-0.5% - 0.9%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(-0.3% - 0.6%) (-0.6% - 1.2%) (-0.1% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Lag Exposure

Metric

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Location Study

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with

O3 Above:**

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-114 December 2006
Table 4-41. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations:

April - September, 2002*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(-0.8% - 1.2%) (-1.6% - 2.2%) (-0.5% - 0.8%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.4% 2.9% 1.9%

(0.8% - 4%) (0.9% - 4.8%) (0.6% - 3.2%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.9% 1.1% 0.7%

(0.3% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.8%) (0.2% - 1.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8% 1.1% 0.6%

(-0.5% - 2.1%) (-0.7% - 2.8%) (-0.4% - 1.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%

(0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6% 0.9% 0.4%

(-0.2% - 1.4%) (-0.3% - 2.1%) (-0.1% - 0.9%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.9% 2.3% 1.6%

(-0.3% - 4.1%) (-0.4% - 4.8%) (-0.3% - 3.4%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1% 1.2% 0.9%

(0.3% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 2.1%) (0.3% - 1.5%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.7% 1.1% 0.5%

(-0.7% - 2.1%) (-1% - 3.2%) (-0.4% - 1.3%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.9% 1.1% 0.8%

(0.1% - 1.8%) (0.1% - 2.1%) (0.1% - 1.4%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.8% 0.9% 0.6%

(0.2% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.2% - 1.1%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.7% - 1.2%) (-0.3% - 0.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

(0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 1.6% 2.2% 1.1%

(1% - 2.2%) (1.4% - 3.1%) (0.7% - 1.5%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%

(-1.1% - 1.9%) (-1.5% - 2.4%) (-0.8% - 1.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%

(0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 0.7%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(-0.5% - 1.2%) (-0.8% - 1.8%) (-0.3% - 0.7%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%

(0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 0.7%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with

O3 Above:**

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St Louis

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington

Abt Associates Inc. 4-115 December 2006
Table 4-42. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2004*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0%

(-0.4% - 0.6%) (-1.1% - 1.6%) (-0.2% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.1%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.5% 2% 1%

(0.5% - 2.5%) (0.6% - 3.3%) (0.3% - 1.7%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%

(0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 0.7%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%

(-0.2% - 0.7%) (-0.3% - 1.3%) (-0.1% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.1%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%

(-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.2% - 1.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.1% 1.5% 0.8%

(-0.2% - 2.4%) (-0.2% - 3.1%) (-0.1% - 1.8%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.1% - 0.8%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%

(-0.3% - 0.9%) (-0.6% - 1.8%) (-0.1% - 0.4%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.8% 0.9% 0.6%

(0.1% - 1.5%) (0.1% - 1.8%) (0.1% - 1.2%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.6% 0.8% 0.5%

(0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 0.9%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.1% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.2%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.8% 1.3% 0.3%

(0.5% - 1%) (0.8% - 1.7%) (0.2% - 0.5%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(-0.6% - 1%) (-1% - 1.6%) (-0.3% - 0.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0%

(-0.2% - 0.5%) (-0.5% - 1%) (-0.1% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.2%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with

O3 Above:**

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Lag Exposure

Metric

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Location Study

Abt Associates Inc. 4-116 December 2006
Table 4-43. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2002*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(-0.7% - 0.9%) (-1.4% - 2%) (-0.4% - 0.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.2%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2% 2.5% 1.6%

(0.6% - 3.4%) (0.8% - 4.2%) (0.5% - 2.6%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.8% 0.9% 0.6%

(0.2% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.2% - 1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%

(-0.4% - 1.7%) (-0.6% - 2.4%) (-0.3% - 1.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%

(-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.3% - 1.8%) (-0.1% - 0.7%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.2%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.7% 2% 1.4%

(-0.3% - 3.6%) (-0.3% - 4.3%) (-0.2% - 2.9%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.9% 1.1% 0.7%

(0.3% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.8%) (0.2% - 1.2%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.6% 0.9% 0.4%

(-0.6% - 1.7%) (-0.9% - 2.7%) (-0.3% - 1%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%

(0.1% - 1.3%) (0.1% - 1.7%) (0% - 1%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 0.7%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(-0.2% - 0.4%) (-0.4% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 1.3% 1.9% 0.9%

(0.8% - 1.8%) (1.2% - 2.6%) (0.5% - 1.2%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

(-0.9% - 1.4%) (-1.2% - 2%) (-0.6% - 0.9%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

(-0.5% - 1%) (-0.7% - 1.6%) (-0.2% - 0.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

(0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St Louis

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with

O3 Above:**

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Abt Associates Inc. 4-117 December 2006
Table 4-44. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2004*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(-0.3% - 0.5%) (-1% - 1.5%) (-0.1% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.2% 1.6% 0.7%

(0.4% - 2%) (0.5% - 2.8%) (0.2% - 1.2%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.3% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.1%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 1%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.9% 1.2% 0.6%

(-0.1% - 2%) (-0.2% - 2.7%) (-0.1% - 1.3%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%

(0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%

(-0.2% - 0.7%) (-0.5% - 1.5%) (-0.1% - 0.2%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.6% 0.8% 0.5%

(0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.5%) (0% - 0.9%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%

(0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 0.7%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(-0.2% - 0.3%) (-0.4% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.1%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.6% 1.1% 0.2%

(0.4% - 0.8%) (0.7% - 1.5%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.8% - 1.4%) (-0.2% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.2%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(-0.1% - 0.3%) (-0.4% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.1%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with

O3 Above:**

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-118 December 2006
Table 4-45. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

(-0.5% - 0.8%) (-1.2% - 1.8%) (-0.3% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.2%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.7% 2.2% 1.3%

(0.5% - 2.9%) (0.7% - 3.6%) (0.4% - 2.1%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.6% 0.8% 0.5%

(0.2% - 1.1%) (0.3% - 1.4%) (0.2% - 0.8%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%

(-0.4% - 1.5%) (-0.5% - 2.2%) (-0.2% - 1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%

(-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.2% - 1.6%) (-0.1% - 0.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.2%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.4% 1.8% 1.1%

(-0.2% - 3%) (-0.3% - 3.7%) (-0.2% - 2.4%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.8% 1% 0.6%

(0.2% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.2% - 1%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%

(-0.5% - 1.4%) (-0.8% - 2.4%) (-0.2% - 0.8%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%

(0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0% - 0.8%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(-0.1% - 0.2%) (-0.3% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 1.1% 1.7% 0.7%

(0.7% - 1.5%) (1.1% - 2.3%) (0.4% - 0.9%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%

(-0.8% - 1.2%) (-1.1% - 1.8%) (-0.5% - 0.8%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(-0.4% - 0.8%) (-0.6% - 1.3%) (-0.2% - 0.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with

O3 Above:**

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St Louis

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington

Abt Associates Inc. 4-119 December 2006
Table 4-46. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2004*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(-0.2% - 0.3%) (-0.9% - 1.3%) (-0.1% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.4% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.9% 1.3% 0.5%

(0.3% - 1.5%) (0.4% - 2.2%) (0.1% - 0.8%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0%

(-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.2% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0%

(0% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.7% 1% 0.4%

(-0.1% - 1.5%) (-0.2% - 2.2%) (-0.1% - 0.9%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.4% 0%

(-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.4% - 1.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

(0% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0% - 0.6%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0% 0.1% 0%

(-0.1% - 0.2%) (-0.2% - 0.4%) (0% - 0%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.1%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%

(0.3% - 0.6%) (0.6% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 0.2%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(-0.4% - 0.6%) (-0.7% - 1.1%) (-0.1% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.1%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0% 0.2% 0%

(-0.1% - 0.1%) (-0.3% - 0.6%) (0% - 0%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.1%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with

O3 Above:**

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-120 December 2006
Table 4-47. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(-0.4% - 0.6%) (-1.1% - 1.6%) (-0.2% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.1%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.4% 1.9% 1%

(0.4% - 2.3%) (0.6% - 3.1%) (0.3% - 1.6%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.5% 0.7% 0.4%

(0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%

(-0.3% - 1.2%) (-0.5% - 1.9%) (-0.2% - 0.7%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%

(-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.2% - 1.3%) (0% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.2% 1.5% 0.9%

(-0.2% - 2.5%) (-0.2% - 3.2%) (-0.1% - 1.9%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.6% 0.8% 0.5%

(0.2% - 1.1%) (0.3% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 0.8%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%

(-0.3% - 1.1%) (-0.6% - 2%) (-0.2% - 0.5%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

(0% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.5%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0% 0.1% 0%

(-0.1% - 0.1%) (-0.2% - 0.3%) (0% - 0%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.2% 0%

(0% - 0.1%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.2%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.9% 1.5% 0.5%

(0.6% - 1.3%) (0.9% - 2%) (0.3% - 0.7%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(-0.6% - 1%) (-1% - 1.6%) (-0.4% - 0.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

(-0.3% - 0.6%) (-0.5% - 1.1%) (-0.1% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

(0% - 0.2%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with

O3 Above:**

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St Louis

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington

Abt Associates Inc. 4-121 December 2006
Table 4-48. Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations Down to Policy Relevant Background (PRB)

Versus 0 ppb: April - September, 2004*

Above PRB Above 0 ppb Above PRB Above 0 ppb Above PRB Above 0 ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 25 0.4 1.7 0.1% 0.5%

(-26 - 38) (-110 - 156) (-1.8 - 2.6) (-7.4 - 10.5) (-0.6% - 0.8%) (-2.4% - 3.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 50 0.8 3.4 0.3% 1.1%

(4 - 20) (17 - 83) (0.3 - 1.4) (1.1 - 5.6) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.4% - 1.8%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 7 27 1.0 3.9 0.3% 1.1%

(2 - 12) (9 - 45) (0.3 - 1.7) (1.3 - 6.5) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.4% - 1.8%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 49 220 0.9 4.1 0.2% 1%

(16 - 81) (74 - 365) (0.3 - 1.5) (1.4 - 6.8) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.4% - 1.7%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 394 877 7.3 16.3 1.9% 4.2%

(125 - 658) (280 - 1456) (2.3 - 12.2) (5.2 - 27.1) (0.6% - 3.1%) (1.3% - 6.9%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 148 333 2.8 6.2 0.7% 1.6%

(46 - 250) (104 - 559) (0.9 - 4.6) (1.9 - 10.4) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.5% - 2.7%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 27 116 1.9 8.3 0.4% 1.6%

(-17 - 69) (-73 - 300) (-1.2 - 5) (-5.3 - 21.5) (-0.2% - 0.9%) (-1% - 4.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 74 1.2 5.3 0.2% 1%

(6 - 28) (25 - 122) (0.4 - 2) (1.8 - 8.8) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.3% - 1.7%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 33 170 1.6 8.3 0.4% 1.8%

(-11 - 76) (-55 - 390) (-0.5 - 3.7) (-2.7 - 18.9) (-0.1% - 0.8%) (-0.6% - 4.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 87 0.8 4.2 0.2% 0.9%

(6 - 28) (29 - 145) (0.3 - 1.4) (1.4 - 7) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.3% - 1.5%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 128 273 6.2 13.2 1.4% 2.9%

(-21 - 274) (-45 - 578) (-1 - 13.3) (-2.2 - 28.1) (-0.2% - 2.9%) (-0.5% - 6.1%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 70 149 3.4 7.2 0.7% 1.6%

(22 - 117) (47 - 249) (1.1 - 5.7) (2.3 - 12.1) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.5% - 2.6%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 40 207 2.0 10.1 0.4% 2.2%

(-37 - 116) (-195 - 591) (-1.8 - 5.6) (-9.4 - 28.7) (-0.4% - 1.2%) (-2.1% - 6.3%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 35 187 1.0 5.5 0.4% 2.1%

(2 - 67) (12 - 359) (0.1 - 2) (0.3 - 10.5) (0% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 3.9%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 92 0.5 2.7 0.2% 1%

(6 - 28) (31 - 153) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.9 - 4.5) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.3% - 1.7%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 93 202 2.7 6.0 1% 2.2%

(9 - 176) (19 - 382) (0.3 - 5.2) (0.6 - 11.2) (0.1% - 1.9%) (0.2% - 4.2%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 78 169 2.3 5.0 0.9% 1.9%

(24 - 130) (53 - 284) (0.7 - 3.8) (1.6 - 8.3) (0.3% - 1.4%) (0.6% - 3.1%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 62 165 0.6 1.7 0.2% 0.6%

(-149 - 271) (-401 - 719) (-1.6 - 2.8) (-4.2 - 7.6) (-0.5% - 1%) (-1.5% - 2.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 133 355 1.4 3.7 0.5% 1.3%

(45 - 221) (119 - 589) (0.5 - 2.3) (1.3 - 6.2) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.4% - 2.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 60 295 0.7 3.3 0.2% 0.9%

(20 - 100) (99 - 489) (0.2 - 1.1) (1.1 - 5.5) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.3% - 1.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 23 85 1.5 5.6 0.3% 1.1%

(8 - 38) (28 - 141) (0.5 - 2.5) (1.9 - 9.3) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.4% - 1.8%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 82 300 5.4 19.8 1% 3.7%

(52 - 112) (189 - 409) (3.4 - 7.4) (12.5 - 27) (0.6% - 1.4%) (2.4% - 5.1%)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above PRB levels vs. 0 ppb**

Incidence Incidence per 100,000 Relevant

Population Location Study Lag Exposure Metric Percent of Total Incidence

Abt Associates Inc. 4-122 December 2006
Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above PRB levels vs. 0 ppb**

Incidence Incidence per 100,000 Relevant

Population Location Study Lag Exposure Metric Percent of Total Incidence

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 35 1.0 2.9 0.3% 0.8%

(-36 - 59) (-109 - 175) (-3 - 4.8) (-8.9 - 14.3) (-0.9% - 1.4%) (-2.6% - 4.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 18 53 1.4 4.3 0.4% 1.3%

(6 - 29) (18 - 87) (0.5 - 2.4) (1.4 - 7.1) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.4% - 2.1%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3 21 1.0 6.2 0.2% 1.1%

(-6 - 13) (-36 - 77) (-1.7 - 3.6) (-10.4 - 22.2) (-0.3% - 0.6%) (-1.8% - 3.9%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3 19 0.9 5.5 0.2% 1%

(1 - 5) (6 - 32) (0.3 - 1.5) (1.9 - 9.2) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.3% - 1.6%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 8 30 1.5 5.2 0.3% 1.1%

(3 - 14) (10 - 49) (0.5 - 2.4) (1.7 - 8.6) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.4% - 1.8%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. 4-123 December 2006
Table 4-49. Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations Down to Policy Relevant Background (PRB)

Versus 0 ppb: April - September, 2002*

Above PRB Above 0 ppb Above PRB Above 0 ppb Above PRB Above 0 ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 28 0.6 1.9 0.2% 0.6%

(-37 - 54) (-121 - 172) (-2.5 - 3.6) (-8.2 - 11.6) (-0.8% - 1.2%) (-2.6% - 3.7%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 55 1.2 3.7 0.4% 1.2%

(6 - 29) (19 - 91) (0.4 - 1.9) (1.3 - 6.2) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.4% - 2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 10 31 1.5 4.5 0.4% 1.2%

(3 - 17) (10 - 51) (0.5 - 2.5) (1.5 - 7.4) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.4% - 2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 69 240 1.3 4.5 0.3% 1.1%

(23 - 115) (81 - 398) (0.4 - 2.1) (1.5 - 7.4) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.4% - 1.9%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 505 988 9.4 18.4 2.4% 4.7%

(161 - 840) (317 - 1635) (3 - 15.6) (5.9 - 30.4) (0.8% - 4%) (1.5% - 7.8%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 191 376 3.6 7.0 0.9% 1.8%

(60 - 321) (118 - 630) (1.1 - 6) (2.2 - 11.7) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.6% - 3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 61 152 4.3 10.9 0.8% 2%

(-38 - 157) (-96 - 390) (-2.7 - 11.3) (-6.9 - 28) (-0.5% - 2.1%) (-1.3% - 5.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 38 96 2.8 6.9 0.5% 1.3%

(13 - 64) (32 - 160) (0.9 - 4.6) (2.3 - 11.5) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.4% - 2.2%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 57 197 2.8 9.6 0.6% 2.1%

(-18 - 131) (-64 - 450) (-0.9 - 6.3) (-3.1 - 21.8) (-0.2% - 1.4%) (-0.7% - 4.8%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 29 101 1.4 4.9 0.3% 1.1%

(10 - 48) (34 - 168) (0.5 - 2.3) (1.6 - 8.1) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.4% - 1.8%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 181 325 8.8 15.8 1.9% 3.5%

(-30 - 385) (-54 - 688) (-1.4 - 18.7) (-2.6 - 33.4) (-0.3% - 4.1%) (-0.6% - 7.3%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 99 178 4.8 8.6 1% 1.9%

(31 - 165) (56 - 298) (1.5 - 8) (2.7 - 14.4) (0.3% - 1.8%) (0.6% - 3.2%)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 69 240 3.4 11.6 0.7% 2.5%

(-64 - 198) (-226 - 680) (-3.1 - 9.6) (-11 - 33) (-0.7% - 2.1%) (-2.4% - 7.2%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 29 184 0.9 5.4 0.3% 2%

(2 - 57) (12 - 353) (0.1 - 1.7) (0.3 - 10.4) (0% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 3.9%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 14 91 0.4 2.7 0.2% 1%

(5 - 24) (31 - 151) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.9 - 4.4) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.3% - 1.7%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 85 196 2.5 5.7 0.9% 2.2%

(8 - 161) (18 - 369) (0.2 - 4.7) (0.5 - 10.8) (0.1% - 1.8%) (0.2% - 4.1%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 71 163 2.1 4.8 0.8% 1.8%

(22 - 119) (51 - 274) (0.7 - 3.5) (1.5 - 8.1) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.6% - 3%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 51 152 0.5 1.6 0.2% 0.6%

(-124 - 224) (-371 - 665) (-1.3 - 2.4) (-3.9 - 7) (-0.5% - 0.8%) (-1.4% - 2.4%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 110 329 1.2 3.5 0.4% 1.2%

(37 - 184) (110 - 545) (0.4 - 1.9) (1.2 - 5.7) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.4% - 2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 105 349 1.2 3.9 0.3% 1.1%

(35 - 174) (117 - 579) (0.4 - 2) (1.3 - 6.5) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.4% - 1.8%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 37 100 2.4 6.6 0.5% 1.2%

(12 - 62) (34 - 166) (0.8 - 4.1) (2.2 - 11) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.4% - 2.1%)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 132 354 8.7 23.3 1.6% 4.4%

(83 - 180) (224 - 481) (5.5 - 11.9) (14.7 - 31.7) (1% - 2.2%) (2.8% - 6%)

Exposure Metric

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Location Study Lag

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above PRB levels vs. 0 ppb**

Incidence Incidence per 100,000 Relevant

Population Percent of Total Incidence

Abt Associates Inc. 4-124 December 2006
Location Study Lag Exposure Metric

Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above PRB levels vs. 0 ppb**

Incidence Incidence per 100,000 Relevant

Population Percent of Total Incidence

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 16 39 1.3 3.2 0.4% 0.9%

(-48 - 78) (-119 - 191) (-3.9 - 6.4) (-9.8 - 15.6) (-1.1% - 1.9%) (-2.8% - 4.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 23 57 1.9 4.7 0.6% 1.4%

(8 - 39) (19 - 95) (0.6 - 3.2) (1.6 - 7.8) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.5% - 2.3%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 25 1.9 7.2 0.3% 1.2%

(-11 - 23) (-42 - 90) (-3.1 - 6.7) (-12.1 - 25.8) (-0.5% - 1.2%) (-2.1% - 4.5%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 22 1.7 6.4 0.3% 1.1%

(2 - 10) (8 - 37) (0.6 - 2.8) (2.2 - 10.6) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.4% - 1.9%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 15 37 2.6 6.5 0.6% 1.4%

(5 - 25) (13 - 62) (0.9 - 4.4) (2.2 - 10.8) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.5% - 2.3%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis

Abt Associates Inc. 4-125 December 2006
Abt Associates Inc. December 2006 4-126 

Figure 4-19. Sensitivity Analysis of Estimated Percent Reduction in O3-Related Non-Accidental 

Mortality (Using Bell et al., 2004 -- 95 U.S. Cities) From the Current Standard to Alternative 8-hr 

Standards and a Recent Year of Air Quality, Using Base Case, Higher, and Lower PRB Estimates* 

Figure 4-19a. Based on 2004 O3 Concentrations 

Atlanta 

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Boston 

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Chicago 

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Cleveland 

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Detroit 

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Houston 

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates
Abt Associates Inc. 4-127 December 2006

Los Angeles

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

New York

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Philadelphia

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Sacramento

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

St. Louis

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Washington, D.C.

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2004 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of

m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily

maximum 8-hr average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality.
Abt Associates Inc. 4-128 December 2006

Figure 4-19b. Based on 2002 O3 Concentrations

Atlanta

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Boston

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Chicago

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Cleveland

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Detroit

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Houston

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates
Abt Associates Inc. 4-129 December 2006

Los Angeles

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

New York

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Philadelphia

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Sacramento

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

St. Louis

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates

Washington, D.C.

-250.0%

-200.0%

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

2002 air quality 0.084/4 0.074/4 0.064/4

Alternative 8-Hr Standards

Percent Change from Current Standard

Original PRB Estimates

Lower PRB Estimates

Higher PRB Estimates
Abt Associates Inc. 4-130 December 2006

As would be expected, increasing PRB estimates decreased the estimates of

mortality risk associated with “as is” O3 concentrations above PRB levels, and decreasing

PRB estimates increased these estimates. Measured as percent of total incidence,

estimates of O3-related mortality changed by only a few tenths of a percent, which is not

surprising since most base case estimates were themselves less than 1%. In Chicago, for

example, the estimate of O3-related mortality changed from 0.2% to 0.4% of total

incidence when 5 ppb was subtracted from PRB levels and to 0.1% when 5 ppb was

added to PRB levels, based on Bell et al. – 95 U.S. Cities (2004). The largest increase in

mortality measured as percent of total incidence when PRB levels were reduced was

0.6% (from 1% to 1.6%), in Philadelphia, based on Moolgavkar et al. (1995). The largest

decrease in mortality measured as a percent of total incidence when PRB levels were

increased was 0.5% (from 1.9% to 1.4%), in Chicago, based on Schwartz (2004).

The results for estimates of mortality incidence associated with 2002 “as is” O3

concentrations above PRB levels were similar. The largest increase in mortality

measured as percent of total incidence when PRB levels were reduced was 0.6% (from

1.6% to 2.2%), in Philadelphia, based on Moolgavkar et al. (1995). The largest decrease

in mortality measured as percent of total incidence when PRB levels were increased was

0.5% (from 1.6% to 1.1%) in Philadelphia, based on Moolgavkar et al. (1995) and 0.5%

(from 2.4% to 1.9%) in Chicago, based on Schwartz (2004).

The impact of changing the assumed PRB levels was often substantial when

measured as the percent change in estimated number of O3-related deaths, because O3-

related mortality was generally low under the base case PRB assumptions. A change

from an estimated 3 deaths to 4 deaths, for example, is a 33% increase in the estimated

number of deaths but only one additional death. When PRB estimates were decreased,

estimates of mortality incidence associated with 2004 “as is” O3 concentrations above

PRB levels increased from 18% in Houston (from 78 to 92), based on Schwartz – 14 U.S.

Cities (2004), to 133% in Atlanta and St. Louis (from 6 to 14, based on Bell et al. (2004),

and from 12 to 28, based on Bell et al. – 95 U.S. Cities (2004), in Atlanta; and from 3 to

7, based on Bell et al. (2004), in St. Louis). When PRB estimates were increased,

estimates of mortality incidence associated with 2004 “as is” O3 concentrations above

PRB levels decreased from 16% in Houston (from 93 to 78), based on Schwartz (2004),

to 67% in St. Louis (from 3 to 1), based on Bell et al. (2004).

The results for estimates of mortality incidence associated with 2002 “as is” O3

concentrations above PRB levels were similar. When PRB estimates were decreased,

estimates of mortality incidence associated with 2002 “as is” O3 concentrations above

PRB levels increased from 17% in Detroit (from 181 to 212), based on Schwartz (2004),

to 94% in Atlanta (from 17 to 33), based on Bell et al. – 95 U.S. Cities (2004). When

PRB estimates were increased, estimates of mortality incidence associated with 2004 “as

is” O3 concentrations above PRB levels decreased from 17% in Detroit (from 181 to 150),

based on Schwartz (2004), to 50% in St. Louis (from 6 to 3), based on Bell et al. – 95

U.S. Cities (2004).
Abt Associates Inc. 4-131 December 2006

Because O3 concentrations just meeting the current standard are substantially

lower than “as is” O3 concentrations, a change in the assumed PRB levels had a greater

impact on the estimates of mortality associated with O3 concentrations just meeting the

current standard, when measured as percent change in the estimate. Similarly, changing

the estimates of PRB tended to have progressively greater impacts on the estimates of

mortality risk associated with O3 concentrations just meeting progressively more stringent

standards. For example, decreasing the estimates of PRB in Boston induced a 57%

increase in the estimate of mortality incidence (from 7 to 11) associated with 2004 “as is”

O3 concentrations above PRB levels, based on Bell et al. – 95 U.S. Cities (2004). The

same change in PRB estimates induced a 67% increase (from 6 to 10) for O3

concentrations just meeting the current standard (0.084, 4th daily maximum), a 100%

increase (from 4 to 8) for O3 concentrations just meeting the 0.074, 4th daily maximum

standard, and a 133% increase (from 3 to 7) for O3 concentrations just meeting the 0.064,

4

th daily maximum standard.

When measured as percent of total incidence, however, these changes usually

were not sufficient to be detectable after rounding to one decimal place. Using 2004 air

quality, for example, there was no difference in estimated percent of total incidence (after

rounding) when PRB levels were reduced by 5 ppb when considering

 mortality associated with “as is” O3 concentrations above PRB versus mortality

associated with O3 concentrations just meeting the current standard above PRB in 70

percent of estimates (compare Tables 4-40 and 4-42);

 mortality associated with O3 concentrations just meeting the current standard above

PRB versus mortality associated with O3 concentrations just meeting the 0.074, 4th

daily maximum standard in 68 percent of estimates (compare Tables 4-42 and 4-44);

 mortality associated with O3 concentrations just meeting the 0.074, 4th daily

maximum standard above PRB versus mortality associated with O3 concentrations

just meeting the 0.064, 4th daily maximum standard in 79 percent of estimates

(compare Tables 4-44 and 4-46).

The corresponding percentages when using 2002 air quality data are 64 percent, 79

percent, and 64 percent, respectively.

Finally, our estimates of non-accidental mortality risk associated with “as is” O3

concentrations above 0 ppb, rather than above estimated PRB levels, suggest that, on

average across the days in the ozone season, the differences between PRB O3

concentrations and 0 ppb are substantially greater than the differences between O3

concentrations to which people are exposed (“as is” O3 concentrations) and estimated

PRB levels – i.e., the bulk of the ambient O3 is PRB O3. The estimated incidence of nonaccidental mortality associated with 2004 “as is” O3 concentrations above 0 ppb versus

above PRB levels were from 113% higher in Detroit (273 versus 128, using Schwartz

(2004), and 149 versus 70, using Schwartz – 14 U.S. Cities (2004)) to 600% higher in St.

Louis (21 versus 3, using Bell et al. (2004)). The estimated incidence of non-accidental

mortality associated with 2002 “as is” O3 concentrations above 0 ppb versus above PRB

levels were from 80% higher in Detroit (325 versus 181, using Schwartz (2004), and 178

versus 99, using Schwartz – 14 U.S. Cities (2004)) to 550% higher in Houston (91 versus

14, using Bell et al. – 95 U.S. Cities (2004)). We note, however, that because the ranges
Abt Associates Inc. 4-132 December 2006

of O3 concentrations over which O3-mortality concentration-response functions have been

estimated do not go down to 0 ppb, there is substantially less information about the

relationship between mortality and exposure to O3 concentrations in the range between 0

ppb and PRB levels. There is therefore increased uncertainty about whether any

mortality can be attributed to exposure to these very low O3 concentrations above 0 ppb

versus above PRB levels.
Abt Associates Inc. 5-1 December 2006

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using Gibbs sampling. Manual, version ii. MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public

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Ozone Health Risk Assessment for

Selected Urban Areas: Appendices

July 2007

Prepared for

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Research Triangle Park, NC

Prepared by

Ellen Post

Andreas Maier

Hardee Mahoney

Work funded through

Contract No. 68-D-03-002

Work Assignments 3-39 and 4-56

Harvey Richmond, Work Assignment Manager

Nancy Riley, Project Officer
Abt Associates Inc. i December 2006

Table of Contents

APPENDIX A: AIR QUALITY.............................................................................................

APPENDIX B: INFORMATION ON CONCENTRATION-RESPONSE FUNCTIONS

B.1 TABLES OF STUDY-SPECIFIC INFORMATION................................................................. B-1

B.2 CONCENTRATION-RESPONSE FUNCTIONS AND HEALTH IMPACT FUNCTIONS............... B-8

B.2.1 Log-linear............................................................................................................ B-8

B.2.2 Linear .................................................................................................................. B-8

B.2.3 Logistic ............................................................................................................... B-9

B.3 THE CALCULATION OF “SHRINKAGE” ESTIMATES FROM THE LOCATION-SPECIFIC

ESTIMATES REPORTED IN HUANG ET AL. (2004) ................................................. B-11

APPENDIX C: ADDITIONAL LUNG FUNCTION RESULTS.......................................

C.1 LUNG FUNCTION RESPONSE AMONG ACTIVE CHILDREN ASSOCIATED WITH EXPOSURE

TO "AS IS" O3 CONCENTRATIONS OVER BACKGROUND O3 CONCENTRATIONS ..... C-1

C.2 LUNG FUNCTION RESPONSE AMONG ACTIVE CHILDREN ASSOCIATED WITH EXPOSURE

TO O3 CONCENTRATIONS THAT JUST MEET THE CURRENT AND ALTERNATIVE DAILY

MAXIMUM 8-HOUR STANDARDS ........................................................................... C-5

C.3 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES OF EXPOSURE-RESPONSE

FUNCTION ON LUNG FUNCTION RESPONSE ESTIMATES ....................................... C-25

APPENDIX D: ESTIMATED HEALTH RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH “AS IS” O3

CONCENTRATIONS: APRIL – SEPTEMBER.................................................................

D.1 FIGURES....................................................................................................................... D-1

D.2 TABLES ........................................................................................................................ D-8

APPENDIX E: ESTIMATED HEALTH RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH O3

CONCENTRATIONS THAT JUST MEET THE CURRENT 8-HOUR DAILY

MAXIMUM STANDARD: APRIL – SEPTEMBER ..........................................................

E.1 FIGURES........................................................................................................................E-1

E.2 TABLES .........................................................................................................................E-8

APPENDIX F: CALCULATION OF RISK ABOVE POLICY RELEVANT

BACKGROUND .....................................................................................................................

APPENDIX G: EXPLANATION OF HOW A DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL CAN

BE USED IN THE RISK ASSESSMENT ............................................................................

APPENDIX H: ADDITIONAL RESULTS FOR FIVE LOCATIONS FOR THE

CURRENT STANDARD AND TWO ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS, BASED ON

2002, 2003, AND 2004 AIR QUALITY DATA.....................................................................

APPENDIX I: ADDITIONAL PRB SENSITIVITY ANALYSES....................................
Abt Associates Inc. ii December 2006

List of Tables

Table A-1. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Atlanta, GA ................................... A-1

Table A-2. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Boston, MA ................................... A-1

Table A-3. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Chicago, IL..................................... A-2

Table A-4. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Cleveland, OH................................ A-3

Table A-5. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Detroit, MI...................................... A-3

Table A-6. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Houston, TX................................... A-4

Table A-7. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Los Angeles, CA ............................ A-5

Table A-8. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: New York, NY ............................... A-6

Table A-9. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Philadelphia, PA............................. A-6

Table A-10. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Sacramento, CA ........................... A-7

Table A-11. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: St. Louis, MO ............................... A-8

Table A-12. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Washington, D.C.......................... A-8

Table A-13. Composite Monitor Statistics: 2004 ...................................................................... A-9

Table A-14. Composite Monitor Statistics: 2003 ...................................................................... A-9

Table A-15. Composite Monitor Statistics: 2002 .................................................................... A-10

Table B-1. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Atlanta, GA ...................................... B-1

Table B-2. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Boston, MA...................................... B-1

Table B-3. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Chicago, IL....................................... B-2

Table B-4. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Cleveland, OH.................................. B-2

Table B-5. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Detroit, MI........................................ B-3

Table B-6. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Houston, TX..................................... B-4

Table B-7. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Los Angeles, CA .............................. B-5

Table B-8. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in New York, NY ................................. B-6

Table B-9. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Philadelphia, PA............................... B-6

Table B-10. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Sacramento, CA ............................. B-7

Table B-11. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in St. Louis, MO................................. B-7

Table B-12. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Washington, D.C............................ B-7

Table B-13. Notation ............................................................................................................... B-12

Table C-1. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response

Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3

Concentrations Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise,

for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3 Concentrations.............................................. C-1

Table C-2. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response

Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3

Concentrations Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise,

for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3 Concentrations.............................................. C-2

Table C-3. Number and Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate

Exercise Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated

with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3 Concentrations ................................................... C-3

Table C-4. Number and Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate

Exercise Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated
Abt Associates Inc. iii December 2006

with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3 Concentrations ................................................... C-4

Table C-5. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated

with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily

Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in

Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations .................................................................................................................... C-5

Table C-6. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated

with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily

Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in

Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations .................................................................................................................... C-7

Table C-7. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily

Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in

Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations .................................................................................................................... C-9

Table C-8. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily

Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in

Moderate Exercise, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations .................................................................................................................. C-11

Table C-9. Number of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily

Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting

2004 O3 Concentrations .................................................................................................... C-13

Table C-10. Number of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily

Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting

2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................................................................... C-15

Table C-11. Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily

Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting

2004 O3 Concentrations .................................................................................................... C-17

Table C-12. Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exercise

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response Associated with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily

Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting

2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................................................................... C-19

Table C-13. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response

Function on Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in

FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with
Abt Associates Inc. iv December 2006

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily

Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting

2004 O3 Concentrations .................................................................................................... C-25

Table C-14. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response

Function on Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in

FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily

Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting

2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................................................................... C-26

Table C-15. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response

Function on Number of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate

Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in

FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily

Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting

2004 O3 Concentrations .................................................................................................... C-27

Table C-16. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response

Function on Number of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate

Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in

FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily

Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting

2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................................................................... C-28

Table D-1. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Atlanta,

GA, April – September, 2004 ............................................................................................. D-8

Table D-2. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Atlanta,

GA, April – September, 2002 ............................................................................................. D-9

Table D-3. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Boston,

MA, April – September, 2004........................................................................................... D-10

Table D-4. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Boston,

MA, April – September, 2002........................................................................................... D-11

Table D-5. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Chicago,

IL, April – September, 2004 ............................................................................................. D-12

Table D-6. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Chicago,

IL, April – September, 2002 ............................................................................................. D-13

Table D-7. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Cleveland,

OH, April – September, 2004 ........................................................................................... D-14

Table D-8. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Cleveland,

OH, April – September, 2002 ........................................................................................... D-15

Table D-9. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Detroit,

MI, April – September, 2004 ............................................................................................ D-16

Table D-10. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Detroit,

MI, April – September, 2002 ............................................................................................ D-17

Table D-11. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Houston,

TX, April – September, 2004............................................................................................ D-18
Abt Associates Inc. v December 2006

Table D-12. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Houston,

TX, April – September, 2002............................................................................................ D-19

Table D-13. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Los

Angeles, CA, April – September, 2004 ............................................................................ D-20

Table D-14. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: Los

Angeles, CA, April – September, 2002 ............................................................................ D-21

Table D-15. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations:

Philadelphia, PA, April – September, 2004...................................................................... D-22

Table D-16. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations:

Philadelphia, PA, April – September, 2002...................................................................... D-23

Table D-17. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations:

Sacramento, CA, April – September, 2004....................................................................... D-24

Table D-18. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations:

Sacramento, CA, April – September, 2002....................................................................... D-25

Table D-19. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: St. Louis,

MO, April – September, 2004........................................................................................... D-26

Table D-20. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: St.

Louis, MO, April – September, 2002 ............................................................................... D-27

Table D-21. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations:

Washington, D.C., April – September, 2004 .................................................................... D-28

Table D-22. Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations:

Washington, D.C., April – September, 2002 .................................................................... D-29

Table E-1. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations ...................................................E-8

Table E-2. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004

O3 Concentrations ................................................................................................................E-9

Table E-3. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-10

Table E-4. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-11

Table E-5. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002

O3 Concentrations ..............................................................................................................E-12

Table E-6. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-13
Abt Associates Inc. vi December 2006

Table E-7. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-14

Table E-8. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2004 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-15

Table E-9. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-16

Table E-10. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-17

Table E-11. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2002 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-18

Table E-12. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-19

Table E-13. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-20

Table E-14. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004

O3 Concentrations ..............................................................................................................E-21

Table E-15. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-22

Table E-16. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-23

Table E-17. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002

O3 Concentrations ..............................................................................................................E-24

Table E-18. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-25
Abt Associates Inc. vii December 2006

Table E-19. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-26

Table E-20. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2004 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-27

Table E-21. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-28

Table E-22. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-29

Table E-23. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2002 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-30

Table E-24. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-31

Table E-25. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-32

Table E-26. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004

O3 Concentrations ..............................................................................................................E-34

Table E-27. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-36

Table E-28. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-38

Table E-29. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002

O3 Concentrations ..............................................................................................................E-40

Table E-30. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-42
Abt Associates Inc. viii December 2006

Table E-31. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-44

Table E-32. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2004 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-45

Table E-33. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-46

Table E-34. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-47

Table E-35. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2002 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-48

Table E-36. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-49

Table E-37. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-50

Table E-38. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2004 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-51

Table E-39. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-52

Table E-40. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-53

Table E-41. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2002 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-54

Table E-42. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-55
Abt Associates Inc. ix December 2006

Table E-43. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-56

Table E-44. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2004 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-57

Table E-45. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-58

Table E-46. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-59

Table E-47. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2002 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-60

Table E-48. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-61

Table E-49. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-62

Table E-50. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2004 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-63

Table E-51. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-64

Table E-52. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-65

Table E-53. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2002 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-66

Table E-54. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-67
Abt Associates Inc. x December 2006

Table E-55. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-68

Table E-56. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2004 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-69

Table E-57. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-70

Table E-58. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April -

September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations .................................................E-71

Table E-59. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting

2002 O3 Concentrations .....................................................................................................E-72

Table E-60. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-73

Table E-61. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April

- September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations ...............................................E-74

Table E-62. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on

Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations ....................................................................................E-75

Table E-63. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-76

Table E-64. Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the

Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April

- September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations ...............................................E-77

Table E-65. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on

Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations ....................................................................................E-78

Table E-66. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3

Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum

Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3

Concentrations ...................................................................................................................E-79
Abt Associates Inc. xi December 2006

Table H-1. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3

Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations ... H-1

Table H-2. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based Adjusting

on 2003 O3 Concentrations ................................................................................................. H-2

Table H-3. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated

with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations ... H-3

Table H-4. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3

Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations ... H-4

Table H-5. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based Adjusting

on 2004 O3 Concentrations ................................................................................................. H-5

Table H-6. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated

with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations ... H-6

Table H-7. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that

Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April

- September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations ................................................ H-7

Table H-8. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-

Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3

Concentrations .................................................................................................................... H-8

Table H-9. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-

Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3

Concentrations .................................................................................................................... H-9

Table H-10. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations

that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards:

April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3Concentrations...................................... H-10

Table H-11. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-

Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations .................................................................................................................. H-11

Table H-12. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality

Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-

Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations .................................................................................................................. H-12

Table I-1. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated

with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2004 ...................................................I-1
Abt Associates Inc. xii December 2006

Table I-2. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated

with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2002 ...................................................I-2

Table I-3. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000

Relevant Population Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September,

2004.......................................................................................................................................I-3

Table I-4. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000

Relevant Population Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September,

2002.......................................................................................................................................I-4

Table I-5. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated

with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily

Maximum): April - September, 2004....................................................................................I-5

Table I-6. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated

with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily

Maximum): April - September, 2002....................................................................................I-6

Table I-7. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated

with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th

Daily Maximum: April - September, 2004 ...........................................................................I-7

Table I-8. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated

with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th

Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002 ...........................................................................I-8

Table I-9. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated

with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th

Daily Maximum: April - September, 2004 ...........................................................................I-9

Table I-10. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated

with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th

Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002 .........................................................................I-10

Table I-11. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000

Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2004..............................I-11

Table I-12. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000

Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2002..............................I-12

Table I-13. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000
Abt Associates Inc. xiii December 2006

Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative

Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum : April - September, 2004 ...........................I-13

Table I-14. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000

Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative

Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum : April - September, 2002 ...........................I-14

Table I-15. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000

Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative

Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2004 ............................I-15

Table I-16. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant

Background (PRB) on Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000

Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative

Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002 ............................I-16
Abt Associates Inc. xiv December 2006

List of Figures

Figure C-1. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of

Occurrences of Lung Function Response Among Active School Age Children when

O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to

Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, for Each of the Three

Definitions of Response.................................................................................................... C-21

Figure C-2. Percent Reductions of Occurrences of Decrement in FEV1 >15% Among

Active School Age Children when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just

Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative

Standard, Separately for Each Location............................................................................ C-22

Figure C-3. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of Active

School Age Children Experiencing at Least One Occurrence of Lung Function

Response when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current

Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, for Each of the

Three Definitions of Response.......................................................................................... C-23

Figure C-4. Percent Reductions in Numbers of Active School Age Children Experiencing

at Least One Decrement in FEV1 >15% when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from

Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each

Alternative Standard, Separately for Each Location......................................................... C-24

Figure D-1. Estimated Annual Cases of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background: SinglePollutant, Single-City Models (April – September)............................................................ D-1

Figure D-2. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April –

September): Single-Pollutant vs. Multi-Pollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004),

additional pollutants, from left to right: none, CO, NO2, PM10, SO2] ............................... D-2

Figure D-3. Estimated Annual Cases of (Non-Accidental) Mortality per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April –

September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar)...................... D-3

Figure D-4. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April –

September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) – Based on

Huang et al. (2004) ............................................................................................................. D-4

Figure D-5. Estimated Annual Cases of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for

Pneumonia in Detroit per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to O3 Above Background (April – September): Different Lag Models –

Based on Ito (2003) [bars from left to right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lag

models]................................................................................................................................ D-5

Figure D-6. Estimated Annual Cases of Non-Accidental Mortality Per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to “As Is” O3 Above Background

for the Period April – September (Based on Bell et al., 2004 – 95 U.S. Cities) – Total

and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges............................................................................. D-6
Abt Associates Inc. xv December 2006

Figure D-7. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to “As Is” O3 Above Background

for the Period April – September (Based on Huang et al., 2004 – 19 U.S. Cities) –

Total and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges ................................................................... D-7

Figure E-1. Estimated Annual Cases of (Non-Accidental) Mortality per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the

Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met: Single-Pollutant, Single-City Models (April –

September) ...........................................................................................................................E-1

Figure E-2. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the

Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April – September): Single-Pollutant vs. MultiPollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004), additional pollutants, from left to right: none,

CO, NO2, PM10, SO2]...........................................................................................................E-2

Figure E-3. Estimated Annual Cases of (Non-Accidental) Mortality per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the

Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April – September): Single-City Model (left

bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar)...................................................................................E-3

Figure E-4. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the

Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April – September): Single-City Model (left

bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) – Based on Huang et al. (2004)................................E-4

Figure E-5. Estimated Annual Cases of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for

Pneumonia in Detroit per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with Short-Term

Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met

(April – September): Different Lag Models – Based on Ito (2003) [bars from left to

right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lag models] ..........................................................E-5

Figure E-6. Estimated Annual Cases of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Policy Relevant

Background for the Period April – September When the Current 8-Hour Standard is

Just Met (Based on Bell et al., 2004 – 95 U.S. Cities) – Total and Contribution of 24-

Hour O3 Ranges ...................................................................................................................E-6

Figure E-7. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant

Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Policy Relevant

Background for the Period April – September When the Current 8-Hour Standard is

Just Met (Based on Huang et al., 2004 – 19 U.S. Cities) – Total and Contribution of

24-Hour O3 Ranges ..............................................................................................................E-7
Appendix A: Air Quality
Table A-1. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Atlanta, GA 

2002 2003 2004

1305700011 0.089

1306700031 0.100 0.084 0.073 0.085

1307700021 0.099 0.077 0.083 0.086

1308500012 0.088 0.077 0.068 0.077

1308900021 0.095 0.080 0.084 0.086

1308930011 0.090 0.091 0.088 0.089

1309700041 0.098 0.085 0.080 0.087

1311300011 0.088 0.077 0.084 0.083

1312100551 0.100 0.091 0.089 0.093

1313500021 0.089 0.088 0.092 0.089

1315100021 0.099 0.082 0.085 0.088

1322300031 0.099 0.083 0.073 0.085

1324700011 0.099 0.078 0.087 0.088

Average: 0.095 0.083 0.082

0.093

*The design value is the maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual 

 fourth daily maximum 8-hour average over the 3 year period.

Table A-2. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Boston, MA 

2002 2003 2004

2500900051 0.088

2500920061 0.100 0.079 0.081 0.086

2500940041 0.094 0.080 0.077 0.083

2501711021 0.096 0.073 0.070 0.079

2502130031 0.107 0.088 0.078 0.091

2502500411 0.102 0.078 0.079 0.086

2502500421 0.074 0.074 0.064 0.07

2502700151 0.091 0.080 0.074 0.081

Average: 0.094 0.079 0.075

0.091

*The design value is the maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual 

 fourth daily maximum 8-hour average over the 3 year period.

Design Value*:

AIRS Monitor ID

Fourth Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Average (ppm)

Average of the 3 

Year-Specific 

Values (ppm)

AIRS Monitor ID

Fourth Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Average (ppm)

Average of the 3 

Year-Specific 

Values (ppm)

Design Value*:

Abt Associates Inc. A-1 December 2006
Table A-3. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Chicago, IL 

2002 2003 2004

1703100011 0.094 0.077 0.065 0.078

1703100321 0.096 0.080 0.067 0.081

1703100422 0.103

1703100501 0.084 0.069

1703100641 0.085 0.067 0.054 0.068

1703100721 0.085 0.075 0.060 0.073

1703100761 0.068

1703110032 0.092 0.071 0.067 0.076

1703116011 0.081 0.075 0.067 0.074

1703140021 0.084 0.070 0.059 0.071

1703140071 0.093 0.073 0.064 0.076

1703142011 0.087 0.080 0.067 0.078

1703142012 0.067 0.051

1703170021 0.091 0.082 0.071 0.081

1703180031 0.074

1704360011 0.084 0.066 0.065 0.071

1708900051 0.082 0.076 0.069 0.075

1709710021 0.090 0.074 0.068 0.077

1709710071 0.100 0.078 0.071 0.083

1709730011 0.087

1711100011 0.090 0.079 0.068 0.079

1719710081 0.086 0.077 0.063 0.075

1719710111 0.087 0.073 0.068 0.076

1808900221 0.094 0.076 0.064 0.078

1808900241 0.086 0.081

1808900301 0.064

1808920081 0.101 0.081 0.067 0.083

1809100051 0.107 0.082 0.070 0.086

1809100101 0.100 0.084

1812700202 0.097 0.079

1812700241 0.101 0.077 0.069 0.082

1812700261 0.100 0.082 0.072 0.084

5505900021 0.110 0.085

5505900191 0.116 0.088 0.078 0.094

5505900221 0.096 0.088

Average: 0.092 0.077 0.066

0.094

*The design value is the maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual 

 fourth daily maximum 8-hour average over the 3 year period.

Fourth Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Average (ppm)

Average of the 3 

Year-Specific 

Values (ppm)

AIRS Monitor ID

Design Value*:

Abt Associates Inc. A-2 December 2006
Table A-4. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Cleveland, OH 

2002 2003 2004

3900710011 0.103 0.099 0.081 0.094

3903500341 0.090 0.076 0.057 0.074

3903500641 0.090 0.079 0.063 0.077

3903550021 0.098 0.089 0.077 0.088

3905500041 0.115 0.097 0.075 0.095

3908500031 0.104 0.092 0.079 0.091

3908530021 0.088 0.080 0.076 0.081

3909300171 0.099 0.085 0.074 0.086

3910300031 0.091 0.086 0.077 0.084

3913310011 0.097 0.091 0.081 0.089

3915300201 0.103 0.089 0.077 0.089

Average: 0.098 0.088 0.074

0.095

*The design value is the maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual 

 fourth daily maximum 8-hour average over the 3 year period.

Table A-5. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Detroit, MI 

2002 2003 2004

2604900211 0.088 0.087 0.075 0.083

2604920011 0.089 0.091 0.077 0.085

2609900091 0.095 0.102 0.081 0.092

2609910031 0.092 0.101 0.071 0.088

2612500012 0.093 0.090 0.075 0.086

2614700051 0.100 0.086 0.074 0.086

2616100081 0.091 0.091 0.071 0.084

2616300012 0.088 0.085 0.065 0.079

2616300161 0.092 0.084 0.066 0.08

2616300192 0.083 0.098 0.066 0.082

Average: 0.091 0.092 0.072

0.092

*The design value is the maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual 

 fourth daily maximum 8-hour average over the 3 year period.

Design Value*:

Design Value*:

Fourth Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Average (ppm)

Average of the 3 

Year-Specific 

Values (ppm)

AIRS Monitor ID

AIRS Monitor ID

Fourth Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Average (ppm)

Average of the 3 

Year-Specific 

Values (ppm)

Abt Associates Inc. A-3 December 2006
Table A-6. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Houston, TX 

2002 2003 2004

4803910032 0.095

4803910041 0.092 0.097 0.103 0.097

4803910161 0.081

4816700141 0.093 0.092 0.088 0.091

4816710022 0.083 0.082

4820100242 0.096 0.095 0.096 0.095

4820100263 0.088 0.098 0.085 0.09

4820100292 0.098 0.096 0.090 0.094

4820100461 0.078 0.093 0.084 0.085

4820100472 0.072 0.082 0.083 0.079

4820100512 0.101 0.103 0.095 0.099

4820100551 0.094 0.107 0.104 0.101

4820100621 0.095 0.094 0.097 0.095

4820100661 0.084 0.081 0.097 0.087

4820100701 0.088 0.100 0.078 0.088

4820100751 0.078 0.096 0.093 0.089

4820110151 0.108 0.093

4820110342 0.093 0.102 0.091 0.095

4820110353 0.092 0.105 0.092 0.096

4820110391 0.095 0.113 0.097 0.101

4820110411 0.090

4820110501 0.094 0.092 0.097 0.094

4833900781 0.082 0.094 0.080 0.085

Average: 0.090 0.097 0.091

0.101

*The design value is the maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual 

 fourth daily maximum 8-hour average over the 3 year period.

Fourth Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Average (ppm)

Average of the 3 

Year-Specific 

Values (ppm)

AIRS Monitor ID

Design Value*:

Abt Associates Inc. A-4 December 2006
Table A-7. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Los Angeles, CA 

2002 2003 2004

0603700021 0.097 0.104 0.092 0.097

0603700161 0.111 0.123 0.095 0.109

0603701131 0.073 0.083 0.076 0.077

0603710021 0.091 0.096 0.089 0.092

0603711031 0.077 0.082 0.078 0.079

0603712011 0.111 0.119 0.101 0.11

0603713011 0.049 0.057 0.065 0.057

0603716011 0.074 0.082 0.079 0.078

0603717011 0.099 0.109 0.095 0.101

0603720051 0.095 0.101 0.093 0.096

0603740021 0.059 0.063 0.070 0.064

0603750011 0.064 0.070

0603750051 0.085

0603760121 0.131 0.137 0.107 0.125

0603790331 0.102 0.103 0.095 0.1

0605900071 0.069 0.080 0.088 0.079

0605910031 0.066 0.079 0.076 0.073

0605920221 0.081 0.095 0.085 0.087

0605950011 0.071 0.080 0.075 0.075

0606500121 0.113 0.127 0.112 0.117

0606520021 0.097 0.100 0.094 0.097

0606550011 0.109 0.105 0.099 0.104

0606560011 0.107 0.116 0.095 0.106

0606580011 0.109 0.120 0.111 0.113

0606590011 0.104 0.112 0.100 0.105

0606590031 0.060

0607100011 0.092 0.088 0.082 0.087

0607100051 0.131 0.130 0.122 0.127

0607100121 0.115 0.103 0.097 0.105

0607100171 0.087 0.084 0.087 0.086

0607103061 0.106 0.104 0.085 0.098

0607110042 0.105 0.114 0.102 0.107

0607112341 0.089 0.087 0.082 0.086

0607120021 0.114 0.132 0.111 0.119

0607140011 0.113 0.110 0.099 0.107

0607140031 0.117 0.137 0.119 0.124

0607190021 0.101 0.111 0.102 0.104

0607190041 0.105 0.123 0.112 0.113

0611100051 0.076

0611100071 0.080 0.087 0.086 0.084

0611100091 0.087 0.093 0.086 0.088

0611110041 0.097 0.093 0.092 0.094

0611120021 0.092 0.093 0.092 0.092

0611120031 0.064 0.074 0.069 0.069

0611130011 0.064 0.069 0.065 0.066

Average: 0.093 0.099 0.091

0.127

*The design value is the maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual 

 fourth daily maximum 8-hour average over the 3 year period.

Fourth Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Average (ppm)

Average of the 3 

Year-Specific 

Values (ppm)

AIRS Monitor ID

Design Value*:

Abt Associates Inc. A-5 December 2006
Table A-8. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: New York, NY 

2002 2003 2004

3600500831 0.096 0.079 0.074 0.083

3600501101 0.089 0.082 0.069 0.08

3602700071 0.111 0.081 0.076 0.089

3607150011 0.082 0.087 0.078 0.082

3607900051 0.102 0.082 0.082 0.088

3608100981 0.082 0.072 0.064 0.072

3608101241 0.089 0.086 0.075 0.083

3608500671 0.099 0.086 0.083 0.089

3610300021 0.108 0.094 0.081 0.094

3610300041 0.090 0.082

3610300092 0.103 0.102 0.079 0.094

3611110051 0.084 0.082 0.076 0.08

3611920041 0.102 0.091 0.078 0.09

Average: 0.095 0.085 0.076

0.094

*The design value is the maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual 

 fourth daily maximum 8-hour average over the 3 year period.

Table A-9. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Philadelphia, PA 

2002 2003 2004

4201700121 0.111 0.087 0.082 0.093

4202900501 0.104 0.085

4202901001 0.112 0.085 0.085 0.094

4204500021 0.106 0.080 0.081 0.089

4209100131 0.101 0.085 0.083 0.089

4210100041 0.082 0.069 0.054 0.068

4210100141 0.098 0.083 0.077 0.086

4210100241 0.110 0.082 0.091 0.094

4210101361 0.094 0.070 0.073 0.079

Average: 0.102 0.081 0.078

0.094

*The design value is the maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual 

 fourth daily maximum 8-hour average over the 3 year period.

Design Value*:

Design Value*:

Fourth Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Average (ppm)

Average of the 3 

Year-Specific 

Values (ppm)

AIRS Monitor ID

AIRS Monitor ID

Fourth Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Average (ppm)

Average of the 3 

Year-Specific 

Values (ppm)

Abt Associates Inc. A-6 December 2006
Table A-10. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Sacramento, CA 

2002 2003 2004

0601700101 0.098 0.096 0.089 0.094

0601700111 0.067 0.065

0601700121 0.077 0.075 0.073 0.075

0601700201 0.111 0.106 0.089 0.102

0605700051 0.099 0.098 0.093 0.096

0605700071 0.093 0.090 0.085 0.089

0605710011 0.065

0606100021 0.101 0.094 0.092 0.095

0606100041 0.101 0.089 0.087 0.092

0606100061 0.095 0.085 0.082 0.087

0606100071 0.068

0606130011 0.097

0606700021 0.095 0.086 0.076 0.085

0606700061 0.105 0.097 0.083 0.095

0606700101 0.083 0.076 0.067 0.075

0606700111 0.069 0.087 0.077 0.077

0606700121 0.104 0.098 0.087 0.096

0606700131 0.079 0.075 0.067 0.073

0606750031 0.097 0.097 0.089 0.094

0611300041 0.076 0.077 0.071 0.074

0611310031 0.088 0.082 0.069 0.079

Average: 0.090 0.086 0.081

0.102

*The design value is the maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual 

 fourth daily maximum 8-hour average over the 3 year period.

Fourth Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Average (ppm)

Average of the 3 

Year-Specific 

Values (ppm)

AIRS Monitor ID

Design Value*:

Abt Associates Inc. A-7 December 2006
Table A-11. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: St. Louis, MO 

2002 2003 2004

1708310011 0.100 0.083 0.073 0.085

1711700021 0.085 0.077 0.068 0.076

1711900081 0.094 0.089 0.074 0.085

1711910091 0.090 0.088 0.078 0.085

1711920072 0.090 0.082 0.068 0.08

1711930071 0.084 0.083 0.073 0.08

1716300102 0.093 0.079 0.073 0.081

2909900121 0.093 0.082 0.070 0.081

2918310021 0.099 0.091 0.077 0.089

2918310041 0.098 0.090 0.076 0.088

2918900041 0.098 0.088 0.070 0.085

2918900061 0.094 0.086 0.067 0.082

2918930011 0.094 0.082 0.067 0.081

2918950011 0.095 0.088 0.068 0.083

2918970031 0.093 0.088 0.069 0.083

2951000071 0.090 0.084

2951000721 0.081 0.071 0.058 0.07

2951000861 0.098 0.090 0.072 0.086

Average: 0.093 0.085 0.071

0.089

*The design value is the maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual 

 fourth daily maximum 8-hour average over the 3 year period.

Table A-12. Monitor-Specific O3 Air Quality Information: Washington, D.C. 

2002 2003 2004

1100100251 0.097 0.079 0.080 0.085

1100100411 0.102 0.082 0.070 0.084

1100100431 0.106 0.081 0.081 0.089

Average: 0.102 0.081 0.077

0.089

*The design value is the maximum of the monitor-specific averages of the annual 

 fourth daily maximum 8-hour average over the 3 year period.

Design Value*:

Fourth Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Average (ppm)

Average of the 3 

Year-Specific 

Values (ppm)

AIRS Monitor ID

AIRS Monitor ID

Fourth Daily Maximum 8-Hour 

Average (ppm)

Average of the 3 

Year-Specific 

Values (ppm)

Design Value*:

Abt Associates Inc. A-8 December 2006
Table A-13. Composite Monitor Statistics: 2004 

Minimum Mean Maximum Minimum Mean Maximum Minimum Mean Maximum

Atlanta 0.0091 0.0279 0.0504 0.0170 0.0578 0.1267 0.0146 0.0499 0.1103Boston 1* 0.0060 0.0276 0.0571 0.0185 0.0433 0.1060 0.0128 0.0379 0.0904Boston 2* 0.0114 0.0310 0.0603 0.0218 0.0450 0.0956 0.0194 0.0411 0.0842Chicago 0.0110 0.0270 0.0453 0.0152 0.0432 0.0758 0.0119 0.0389 0.0679Cleveland 0.0080 0.0257 0.0445 0.0123 0.0404 0.0743 0.0090 0.0360 0.0676Detroit 0.0074 0.0239 0.0459 0.0140 0.0430 0.0793 0.0094 0.0375 0.0730Houston 0.0075 0.0262 0.0572 0.0155 0.0510 0.1243 0.0137 0.0443 0.1082Los Angeles 1** 0.0204 0.0338 0.0491 0.0351 0.0634 0.1005 0.0319 0.0555 0.0867Los Angeles 2** 0.0249 0.0398 0.0568 0.0410 0.0656 0.0992 0.0387 0.0597 0.0888New York 1*** 0.0055 0.0242 0.0494 0.0128 0.0449 0.0920 0.0085 0.0378 0.0811New York 2*** 0.0052 0.0241 0.0491 0.0115 0.0447 0.0883 0.0076 0.0378 0.0806Philadelphia 0.0037 0.0272 0.0486 0.0090 0.0492 0.0915 0.0057 0.0426 0.0775Sacramento 0.0164 0.0323 0.0462 0.0307 0.0593 0.0953 0.0241 0.0520 0.0806St. Louis 0.0078 0.0248 0.0425 0.0175 0.0468 0.0890 0.0114 0.0409 0.0688Washington, D.C. 0.0055 0.0283 0.0526 0.0140 0.0521 0.1020 0.0103 0.0450 0.0916*"Boston 1" denotes Suffolk County; "Boston 2" denotes Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, and Worcester Counties. 

**"Los Angeles 1" denotes Los Angeles County; "Los Angeles 2" denotes Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. ***"New York 1" denotes the 5 boroughs of New York City -- Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan, Bronx, and Staten Island. "New York 2" denotes the 5 boroughs plus Westchester County.

Table A-14. Composite Monitor Statistics: 2003 

Minimum Mean Maximum Minimum Mean Maximum Minimum Mean Maximum

Atlanta 0.0035 0.0265 0.0513 0.0083 0.0574 0.1133 0.0042 0.0492 0.1003Boston 1* 0.0106 0.0305 0.0693 0.0190 0.0469 0.1110 0.0143 0.0407 0.0955Boston 2* 0.0104 0.0339 0.0693 0.0190 0.0482 0.1089 0.0145 0.0439 0.0958Chicago 0.0084 0.0287 0.0554 0.0158 0.0458 0.0819 0.0111 0.0410 0.0793Cleveland 0.0073 0.0298 0.0676 0.0143 0.0483 0.1013 0.0102 0.0427 0.0919Detroit 0.0074 0.0279 0.0550 0.0163 0.0503 0.1010 0.0150 0.0442 0.0945Houston 0.0065 0.0270 0.0612 0.0181 0.0534 0.1161 0.0119 0.0455 0.1008Los Angeles 1** 0.0155 0.0326 0.0537 0.0274 0.0650 0.1099 0.0245 0.0557 0.0952Los Angeles 2** 0.0266 0.0396 0.0612 0.0390 0.0670 0.1044 0.0361 0.0605 0.0954New York 1*** 0.0054 0.0251 0.0598 0.0146 0.0458 0.1078 0.0095 0.0386 0.0991New York 2*** 0.0061 0.0259 0.0593 0.0140 0.0462 0.1057 0.0088 0.0395 0.0985Philadelphia 0.0052 0.0285 0.0725 0.0155 0.0495 0.1074 0.0085 0.0430 0.0988Sacramento 0.0217 0.0352 0.0554 0.0343 0.0640 0.1069 0.0319 0.0563 0.0950St. Louis 0.0050 0.0285 0.0534 0.0117 0.0519 0.1200 0.0093 0.0462 0.1064Washington, D.C. 0.0053 0.0276 0.0661 0.0110 0.0516 0.1153 0.0078 0.0441 0.1092*"Boston 1" denotes Suffolk County; "Boston 2" denotes Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, and Worcester Counties. 

**"Los Angeles 1" denotes Los Angeles County; "Los Angeles 2" denotes Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. ***"New York 1" denotes the 5 boroughs of New York City -- Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan, Bronx, and Staten Island. "New York 2" denotes the 5 boroughs plus Westchester County.

Urban Area 24-Hour Average (ppm) 1-Hour Maximum (ppm) 8-Hour Maximum (ppm)

Urban Area 24-Hour Average (ppm) 1-Hour Maximum (ppm) 8-Hour Maximum (ppm)

Abt Associates Inc. A-9 
Table A-15. Composite Monitor Statistics: 2002 

Minimum Mean Maximum Minimum Mean Maximum Minimum Mean Maximum

Atlanta 0.0102 0.0308 0.0559 0.0193 0.0623 0.1307 0.0157 0.0540 0.1166Boston 1* 0.0133 0.0314 0.0783 0.0210 0.0503 0.1185 0.0178 0.0434 0.1128Boston 2* 0.0132 0.0359 0.0852 0.0213 0.0526 0.1213 0.0169 0.0479 0.1162Chicago 0.0101 0.0295 0.0545 0.0206 0.0488 0.0986 0.0137 0.0437 0.0899Cleveland 0.0103 0.0338 0.0685 0.0177 0.0548 0.1070 0.0138 0.0488 0.1044Detroit 0.0085 0.0277 0.0572 0.0170 0.0516 0.0987 0.0151 0.0450 0.0923Houston 0.0089 0.0258 0.0568 0.0163 0.0492 0.1167 0.0131 0.0427 0.1017Los Angeles 1** 0.0158 0.0313 0.0492 0.0283 0.0613 0.1009 0.0252 0.0525 0.0842Los Angeles 2** 0.0192 0.0385 0.0586 0.0292 0.0652 0.0967 0.0247 0.0587 0.0881New York 1*** 0.0062 0.0280 0.0565 0.0130 0.0529 0.1294 0.0088 0.0448 0.0999New York 2*** 0.0075 0.0286 0.0576 0.0133 0.0537 0.1333 0.0088 0.0458 0.1032Philadelphia 0.0069 0.0322 0.0619 0.0133 0.0573 0.1235 0.0091 0.0501 0.0999Sacramento 0.0182 0.0353 0.0604 0.0242 0.0647 0.1090 0.0212 0.0564 0.0954St. Louis 0.0058 0.0289 0.0585 0.0157 0.0556 0.1127 0.0087 0.0484 0.1000Washington, D.C. 0.0095 0.0357 0.0708 0.0193 0.0627 0.1430 0.0164 0.0548 0.1210*"Boston 1" denotes Suffolk County; "Boston 2" denotes Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, and Worcester Counties. 

**"Los Angeles 1" denotes Los Angeles County; "Los Angeles 2" denotes Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. ***"New York 1" denotes the 5 boroughs of New York City -- Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan, Bronx, and Staten Island. "New York 2" denotes the 5 boroughs plus Westchester County.

Urban Area 24-Hour Average (ppm) 1-Hour Maximum (ppm) 8-Hour Maximum (ppm)

Abt Associates Inc. A-10 
Appendix B: Information on Concentration-Response Functions
B.1 Tables of Study-Specific Information

Table B-1. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Atlanta, GA

min. max.

Bell et al. (2004) Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 0 71 0.00020 -0.00084 0.00123

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004) Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00039 0.00013 0.00065

Huang et al. (2004) Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 0 71 0.00120 -0.00039 0.00279

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00124 0.00047 0.00201

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear PM10 NA NA 0.00074 -0.00033 0.00171

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear NO2 NA NA 0.00060 0.00011 0.00109

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear SO2 NA NA 0.00051 0.00001 0.00102

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear CO NA NA 0.00069 0.00020 0.00117

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Rounded to the nearest ppb.

NA denotes "not available."

Table B-2. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Boston, MA

min. max.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004) Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00039 0.00013 0.00065

Gent et al. (2003) Respiratory symptoms --

chest tightness --- 0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. logistic none 27 126 0.00462 0.00000 0.00784

Gent et al. (2003) Respiratory symptoms --

chest tightness --- 0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. logistic PM2.5 27 126 0.00771 0.00331 0.01220

Gent et al. (2003) Respiratory symptoms --

chest tightness --- 0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. logistic PM2.5 27 126 0.00701 0.00262 0.01153

Gent et al. (2003) Respiratory symptoms --

chest tightness --- 0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. logistic none 21 100 0.00570 0.00172 0.00965

Gent et al. (2003) Respiratory symptoms --

shortness of breath --- 0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. logistic none 27 126 0.00398 0.00040 0.00743

Gent et al. (2003) Respiratory symptoms --

shortness of breath --- 0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. logistic none 21 100 0.00525 0.00098 0.00952

Gent et al. (2003) Respiratory symptoms --

wheeze --- 0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. logistic PM2.5 21 100 0.00600 0.00209 0.01002

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Rounded to the nearest ppb.

Observed

Concentrations** (ppb) O3 Coefficient Lower Bound Upper Bound

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Study Health Effects* Ages Lag Exposure

Metric ICD-9 Codes Model

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Study Health Effects* Ages Lag Exposure

Metric ICD-9 Codes Model

Observed

Concentrations** (ppb) O3 Coefficient Lower Bound Upper Bound

Abt Associates Inc. B-1 December 2006
Table B-3. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Chicago, IL

min. max.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00039 0.00013 0.00065

Schwartz (2004) Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all 0-day lag 1 hr max. logistic none NA NA 0.00099 0.00031 0.00166

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, non-accidental < 800

all 0-day lag 1 hr max. logistic none NA NA 0.00037 0.00012 0.00062

Huang et al. (2004) Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 0 65 0.00075 -0.00067 0.00218

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00124 0.00047 0.00201

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear PM10 NA NA 0.00074 -0.00033 0.00171

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear NO2 NA NA 0.00060 0.00011 0.00109

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear SO2 NA NA 0.00051 0.00001 0.00102

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear CO NA NA 0.00069 0.00020 0.00117

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Rounded to the nearest ppb.

NA denotes "not available."

Table B-4. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Cleveland, OH

min. max.

Bell et al. (2004) Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 2 75 0.00061 -0.00038 0.00161

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004) Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00039 0.00013 0.00065

Huang et al. (2004) Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 2 75 0.00148 -0.00004 0.00299

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00124 0.00047 0.00201

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear PM10 NA NA 0.00074 -0.00033 0.00171

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear NO2 NA NA 0.00060 0.00011 0.00109

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear SO2 NA NA 0.00051 0.00001 0.00102

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear CO NA NA 0.00069 0.00020 0.00117

Schwartz et al. (1996) Hospital admissions,

respiratory illness

460-519 65+ avg of 1-day

and 2-day lags 1 hr max. log-linear none NA NA 0.00169 0.00039 0.00291

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Rounded to the nearest ppb.

NA denotes "not available."

ICD-9 Codes Model O3 Coefficient Lower Bound Upper Bound

Observed

Concentrations** (ppb)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Study Health Effects* Ages Lag

ICD-9 Codes O3 Coefficient Lower Bound Upper Bound

Observed

Concentrations** (ppb)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Study Health Effects* Ages Lag Model

Abt Associates Inc. B-2 December 2006
Table B-5. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Detroit, MI

min. max.

Bell et al. (2004) Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 2 75 0.00076 -0.00024 0.00177

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00039 0.00013 0.00065

Schwartz (2004) Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all 0-day lag 1 hr max. logistic none NA NA 0.00068 -0.00011 0.00148

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all 0-day lag 1 hr max. logistic none NA NA 0.00037 0.00012 0.00062

Ito (2003) Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear

(GAM str. none NA 55 0.00093 -0.00085 0.00271

Ito (2003) Mortality, respiratory 460-519 all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA 55 0.00359 -0.00276 0.00993

Huang et al. (2004) Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 2 75 0.00135 -0.00015 0.00286

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00124 0.00047 0.00201

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear PM10 NA NA 0.00074 -0.00033 0.00171

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear NO2 NA NA 0.00060 0.00011 0.00109

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear SO2 NA NA 0.00051 0.00001 0.00102

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear CO NA NA 0.00069 0.00020 0.00117

Ito (2003) Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), pneumonia

480-486

65+ 0-day lag 24 hr avg.

log-linear

(GAM str.

estimation)**

none NA 55 -0.00218 -0.00621 0.00186

Ito (2003) Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), pneumonia

480-486

65+ 1-day lag 24 hr avg.

log-linear

(GAM str.

estimation)

none NA 55 -0.00054 -0.00459 0.00352

Ito (2003) Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), pneumonia

480-486

65+ 2-day lag 24 hr avg.

log-linear

(GAM str.

estimation)

none NA 55 0.00066 -0.00342 0.00473

Ito (2003) Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), pneumonia

480-486

65+ 3-day lag 24 hr avg.

log-linear

(GAM str.

estimation)

none NA 55 0.00190 -0.00216 0.00595

Ito (2003) Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), COPD

490-496

65+ 0-day lag 24 hr avg.

log-linear

(GAM str.

estimation)

none NA 55 -0.00191 -0.00667 0.00286

Ito (2003) Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), COPD

490-496

65+ 1-day lag 24 hr avg.

log-linear

(GAM str.

estimation)

none NA 55 0.00187 -0.00293 0.00667

Ito (2003) Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), COPD

490-496

65+ 2-day lag 24 hr avg.

log-linear

(GAM str.

estimation)

none NA 55 -0.00027 -0.00513 0.00459

Ito (2003) Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), COPD

490-496

65+ 3-day lag 24 hr avg.

log-linear

(GAM str.

estimation)

none NA 55 0.00011 -0.00475 0.00497

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Rounded to the nearest ppb.

NA denotes "not available."

Study Health Effects* Ages Lag

Observed

Concentrations** (ppb) Model

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

O3

Coefficient

***"GAM str. estimation" denotes that estimation of the log-linear C-R function used a generalized additive model with a stringent convergence criterion. This study also estimated log-linear C-R functions using generalized linear

models (GLM).

Lower

Bound

Upper

Bound ICD-9 Codes

Abt Associates Inc. B-3 December 2006
Table B-6. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Houston, TX

min. max.

Bell et al. (2004) Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 1 76 0.00079 0.00005 0.00154

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00039 0.00013 0.00065

Schwartz (2004) Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all 0-day lag 1 hr max. logistic none NA NA 0.00044 0.00004 0.00084

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities

(2004) Mortality, non-accidental < 800 all 0-day lag 1 hr max. logistic none NA NA 0.00037 0.00012 0.00062

Huang et al. (2004) Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 1 76 0.00122 -0.00016 0.00261

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00124 0.00047 0.00201

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear PM10 NA NA 0.00074 -0.00033 0.00171

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear NO2 NA NA 0.00060 0.00011 0.00109

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear SO2 NA NA 0.00051 0.00001 0.00102

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory 390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear CO NA NA 0.00069 0.00020 0.00117

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Rounded to the nearest ppb.

NA denotes "not available."

Study Health Effects* ICD-9 Codes Ages Lag O3 Coefficient Lower Bound Upper Bound

Observed

Concentrations** (ppb)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Model

Abt Associates Inc. B-4 December 2006
Table B-7. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Los Angeles, CA

min. max.

Bell et al. (2004)*** Mortality, nonaccidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 0 68 0.00018 -0.00043 0.00079

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)***

Mortality, nonaccidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00039 0.00013 0.00065

Huang et al. (2004)*** Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 0 68 0.00107 0.00001 0.00213

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00124 0.00047 0.00201

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear PM10 NA NA 0.00074 -0.00033 0.00171

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear NO2 NA NA 0.00060 0.00011 0.00109

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear SO2 NA NA 0.00051 0.00001 0.00102

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear CO NA NA 0.00069 0.00020 0.00117

Linn et al. (2000)  Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

75-101** *** 30+ 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 1 70 0.00110 -0.00047 0.00267

Linn et al. (2000)  Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

75-101** *** 30+ 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 1 70 0.00060 -0.00077 0.00197

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Rounded to the nearest ppb.

***Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.

 Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties.

** ***Linn et al. (2000) used DRG codes instead of ICD codes.

ICD-9 Codes Model O3 Coefficient Lower Bound Upper Bound

Observed

Concentrations** (ppb) Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Study Health Effects* Ages Lag

Abt Associates Inc. B-5 December 2006
Table B-8. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in New York, NY

min. max.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)***

Mortality, nonaccidental< 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00039 0.00013 0.00065

Huang et al. (2004)*** Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none -2 81 0.00170 0.00054 0.00286

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00124 0.00047 0.00201

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear PM10 NA NA 0.00074 -0.00033 0.00171

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear NO2 NA NA 0.00060 0.00011 0.00109

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear SO2 NA NA 0.00051 0.00001 0.00102

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear CO NA NA 0.00069 0.00020 0.00117

Thurston et al. (1992)  Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

respiratory illness

466, 480-486, 490,

491, 492, 493 all 3-day lag 1 hr max. linear none NA 206 1.370E-08 3.312E-09 2.409E-08

Thurston et al. (1992)** ** Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), asthma

493 all 1-day lag 1 hr max. linear none NA 206 1.170E-08 2.488E-09 2.091E-08

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Rounded to the nearest ppb.

***New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City plus Westchester County.

****New York in this study is defined as the five boroughs of New York City.

NA denotes "not available."

Table B-9. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Philadelphia, PA

min. max.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental< 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00039 0.00013 0.00065

Moolgavkar et al. (1995) Mortality, nonaccidental< 800 all 1-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 1 159 0.00140 0.00086 0.00191

Moolgavkar et al. (1995) Mortality, nonaccidental< 800 all 1-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear TSP, SO2 1 159 0.00139 0.00066 0.00212

Huang et al. (2004) Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none -3 84 0.00151 0.00007 0.00296

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00124 0.00047 0.00201

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear PM10 NA NA 0.00074 -0.00033 0.00171

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear NO2 NA NA 0.00060 0.00011 0.00109

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear SO2 NA NA 0.00051 0.00001 0.00102

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

390-448; 490-496;

487; 480-486; 507. all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. log-linear CO NA NA 0.00069 0.00020 0.00117

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Rounded to the nearest ppb.

NA denotes "not available."

Study Health Effects* Ages Lag O3 Coefficient Exposure

Metric ICD-9 Codes Lower Bound Upper Bound

Observed

Model Concentrations** (ppb)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

ICD-9 Codes O3 Coefficient Lower Bound Upper Bound

Observed

Concentrations** (ppb)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Study Health Effects* Ages Lag Model

Abt Associates Inc. B-6 December 2006
Table B-10. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Sacramento, CA

min. max.

Bell et al. (2004) Mortality, nonaccidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 0 71 0.00026 -0.00079 0.00131

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00039 0.00013 0.00065

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Rounded to the nearest ppb.

NA denotes "not available."

Table B-11. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in St. Louis, MO

min. max.

Bell et al. (2004) Mortality, nonaccidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none 0 118 0.00044 -0.00072 0.00159

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00039 0.00013 0.00065

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Rounded to the nearest ppb.

NA denotes "not available."

Table B-12. Study-Specific Information for O3 Studies in Washington, D.C.

min. max.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental < 800 all distributed lag 24 hr avg. log-linear none NA NA 0.00039 0.00013 0.00065

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Rounded to the nearest ppb.

NA denotes "not available."

Study Health Effects* ICD-9 Codes Ages Lag O3 Coefficient Lower Bound Upper Bound

Observed

Concentrations** (ppb) Model

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

Exposure

Metric Model O3 Coefficient Lower Bound Upper Bound

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Observed

Study Health Effects* ICD-9 Codes Ages Lag Concentrations** (ppb)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Study Health Effects* Ages Lag Exposure

Metric ICD-9 Codes Model

Observed

Concentrations** (ppb) O3 Coefficient Lower Bound Upper Bound

Abt Associates Inc. B-7 December 2006
Abt Associates Inc. B-8 December 2006

B.2 Concentration-Response Functions and Health Impact Functions

Notation:

c

c

c

c

xxx

underlevelsOx control conditions

underlevelsOx baseline conditions

yyy

y Incidence under control conditions

y Incidence under baseline conditions













0

3

30

0

0

B.2.1 Log-linear

The log-linear concentration-response function is: x Bey





The derivation of the corresponding health impact function is as follows:

 

 

  x

x x

x xx

x

x

x

x x

x

c

x

x

eyy

eBey

eBey

Be

Be Bey

BeBey

Bey

Bey

Bey

c

c

c

c

























































 

 







 







1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0 0

0

0

0

0

B.2.2 Linear

The linear concentration-response function is:    xy

The derivation of the corresponding health impact function is as follows:
Abt Associates Inc. B-9 December 2006

xxxy

xxyyy

xy

xy

y x

c

c c

c c









 

 







 

)(

0

0 0

0 0

B.2.3 Logistic

The logistic concentration-response function is:

x x

x

ee

e

y  



























1

1

1

The derivation of the corresponding health impact function is as follows:

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

e

e

e

ratioodds

e

e

e

e

e

odds

e

e

y

y

odds

e

y

c





















































































































0

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

x

c

c

c x

c

e

y

y

y

y

e

y

y

y

y







































































0

0

0

0

11

1

1

  x

c c

e

y

y

yy



























0

0

1

1
Abt Associates Inc. B-10 December 2006

 

 

  

































































































 

























































































 

 

0 0

0

0 0

0

0 0

0 0

0

00

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1

1 1

yey

yy

yey

y

yyy

yey

y

y

eyy

ey

y

e

y

y

e

y

y

y

e

y

y

e

y

y

y

e

y

y

e

y

y

yy

x

c x

c x

x

x

c

x

x

c

x x

c

x x

cc















 

 
Abt Associates Inc. B-11 December 2006

B.3 The Calculation of “Shrinkage” Estimates from the Location-Specific Estimates

Reported in Huang et al. (2004)

“Shrinkage” estimates were calculated from the location-specific estimates reported in

Table 1 of Huang et al. (2004), using the method described in DuMouchel (1994). Both Huang

et al. (2004) and DuMouchel (1994) consider a Bayesian hierarchical model. Although they use

different notation, the models are the same. The notation comparison is given in Table B-13

below.

Given a posterior distribution for , ( | y), a shrinkage estimate for the ith location is

calculated as:

i i

yE i)|()(]|[ dy 

* *





where )/()]([)(],|[)(

* * 222*

i i i i  yE y    s ,

where   

i

ii

)(],|[)( ywyE

*

 ,

where 

 

 

j

i i j w s s

122 122

  )(/)()( .

A shrinkage estimate for the ith location is thus defined to be the expected value of the ith

location-specific parameter, given all the location-specific estimates (see Table 1 for notation

explanations). The posterior variance of the true ith location-specific parameter, given all the

location-specific estimates, is given by:

i  i i

yVyV i i)|(}])([],|[{]|[ dy 

** * 2*

  ,

where )/()(/)]/([],|[

2222

1 2222 22

i i

j

i i i j  ssyV   sss



    .

A 95 percent credible interval around the ith shrinkage estimate was calculated as

)(*96.1

* **

 i   i.
Abt Associates Inc. B-12 December 2006

Table B-13. Notation

Huang et al. (2004) DuMouchel (1994)

Location indicator c i

parameter being estimated for location c (or

i)



c

i

Estimate of parameter for location c (or i)* 

c yi

variance in the overall distribution of true s. 

2



2

variance of the estimate of 

c

or (i)** v

c

si

2

The mean of the overall distribution of true

s

 

The model:

),(~

ˆ

)2(&)1(

),(~ )2(

),(~ )1(

ˆ

2

2







 

c c

c

c cc

vN

N

vN

),(~)4(&)3(),2(),1(

),(~)3()2(

),0(~ )4(

),0(~ )3(

)2(

)1(

22

2

2

2

i i

i

i i

i

i i

i ii

sNy

and N

sN

N

y

 





  











  

*Given in Table 1 of Huang et al. (2004)

**Estimated by taking the square of the location-specific standard error, reported in Huang et al. (2004) for each location.
APPENDIX C: Additional Lung Function Results
C.1 Lung Function Response Among Active Children Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations

Table C-1. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3

Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2004 O3 Concentrations*

Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent

384 1% 91 0.2% 13 0%

(133 - 689) (0.3% - 1.7%) (13 - 219) (0% - 0.6%) (1 - 56) (0% - 0.1%)

237 0.8% 53 0.2% 6 0%

(68 - 437) (0.2% - 1.5%) (6 - 137) (0% - 0.5%) (1 - 33) (0% - 0.1%)

383 0.7% 81 0.1% 8 0%

(92 - 713) (0.2% - 1.3%) (3 - 221) (0% - 0.4%) (0 - 51) (0% - 0.1%)

143 0.8% 32 0.2% 4 0%

(41 - 263) (0.2% - 1.4%) (3 - 82) (0% - 0.4%) (0 - 20) (0% - 0.1%)

248 0.8% 54 0.2% 6 0%

(67 - 459) (0.2% - 1.4%) (4 - 143) (0% - 0.4%) (0 - 34) (0% - 0.1%)

386 0.6% 106 0.2% 20 0%

(179 - 638) (0.3% - 1%) (27 - 217) (0% - 0.4%) (5 - 64) (0% - 0.1%)

2725 1.3% 735 0.3% 133 0.1%

(1259 - 4587) (0.6% - 2.2%) (190 - 1532) (0.1% - 0.7%) (27 - 443) (0% - 0.2%)

1112 0.9% 255 0.2% 33 0%

(349 - 2012) (0.3% - 1.7%) (30 - 636) (0% - 0.5%) (3 - 157) (0% - 0.1%)

415 1.1% 99 0.3% 13 0%

(149 - 735) (0.4% - 1.9%) (14 - 235) (0% - 0.6%) (1 - 60) (0% - 0.2%)

143 0.8% 33 0.2% 4 0%

(52 - 252) (0.3% - 1.4%) (4 - 80) (0% - 0.5%) (0 - 20) (0% - 0.1%)

157 0.8% 34 0.2% 4 0%

(46 - 286) (0.2% - 1.4%) (2 - 89) (0% - 0.4%) (0 - 21) (0% - 0.1%)

493 1% 119 0.2% 18 0%

(176 - 878) (0.3% - 1.7%) (20 - 282) (0% - 0.6%) (3 - 73) (0% - 0.1%)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Cleveland

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to:

10% 15% 20%

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Abt Associates Inc. C-1 December 2006
Table C-2. Estimated Number and Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3

Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentrations Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: 2002 O3 Concentrations*

Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent

471 1.2% 128 0.3% 24 0.1%

(213 - 801) (0.5% - 2%) (36 - 268) (0.1% - 0.7%) (6 - 78) (0% - 0.2%)

442 1.5% 129 0.4% 30 0.1%

(206 - 739) (0.7% - 2.5%) (45 - 258) (0.2% - 0.9%) (11 - 82) (0% - 0.3%)

799 1.5% 230 0.4% 48 0.1%

(387 - 1327) (0.7% - 2.5%) (77 - 457) (0.1% - 0.9%) (14 - 140) (0% - 0.3%)

324 1.9% 101 0.6% 25 0.1%

(171 - 523) (1% - 3%) (41 - 188) (0.2% - 1.1%) (9 - 63) (0.1% - 0.4%)

505 1.7% 148 0.5% 32 0.1%

(251 - 834) (0.8% - 2.8%) (52 - 289) (0.2% - 1%) (9 - 89) (0% - 0.3%)

335 0.6% 94 0.2% 19 0%

(159 - 548) (0.3% - 0.9%) (27 - 188) (0% - 0.3%) (5 - 57) (0% - 0.1%)

2473 1.1% 678 0.3% 131 0.1%

(1134 - 4144) (0.5% - 1.9%) (187 - 1401) (0.1% - 0.6%) (34 - 415) (0% - 0.2%)

2258 1.9% 679 0.6% 158 0.1%

(1157 - 3691) (1% - 3.1%) (253 - 1300) (0.2% - 1.1%) (52 - 421) (0% - 0.4%)

822 2.1% 260 0.7% 66 0.2%

(447 - 1315) (1.1% - 3.3%) (106 - 476) (0.3% - 1.2%) (24 - 163) (0.1% - 0.4%)

204 1.2% 55 0.3% 10 0.1%

(92 - 345) (0.5% - 2%) (14 - 115) (0.1% - 0.7%) (2 - 33) (0% - 0.2%)

304 1.6% 91 0.5% 20 0.1%

(155 - 496) (0.8% - 2.5%) (33 - 174) (0.2% - 0.9%) (6 - 55) (0% - 0.3%)

895 1.8% 268 0.5% 62 0.1%

(456 - 1468) (0.9% - 2.9%) (98 - 516) (0.2% - 1%) (21 - 167) (0% - 0.3%)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Cleveland

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to:

10% 15% 20%

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Abt Associates Inc. C-2 December 2006
Table C-3. Number and Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At L

 Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentr

 Location-Specific 

O3 Seasons: 2004 

O3 Concentrations* 

Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent Number (

43 9.5% 16 3.5% 4 

(32 - 62) (7% - 13.8%) (9 - 24) (1.9% - 5.3%) (1 - 

31 6.5% 10 2.2% 2 

(22 - 48) (4.5% - 10%) (4 - 17) (0.9% - 3.6%) (0 - 

43 4.9% 12 1.4% 2 

(28 - 70) (3.1% - 7.9%) (3 - 23) (0.3% - 2.6%) (0 - 

16 6.4% 5 2.1% 1 

(11 - 25) (4.4% - 9.9%) (2 - 9) (0.8% - 3.4%) (0 - 

31 6.1% 10 1.9% 2 

(21 - 48) (4.2% - 9.6%) (4 - 16) (0.7% - 3.3%) (0 - 

59 12.1% 25 5.2% 9 

(47 - 80) (9.6% - 16.4%) (16 - 36) (3.4% - 7.3%) (4 - 1

227 14% 103 6.4% 37 

(191 - 296) (11.8% - 18.3%) (71 - 140) (4.4% - 8.6%) (17 - 

140 7.6% 48 2.6% 12 

(99 - 210) (5.4% - 11.5%) (23 - 77) (1.2% - 4.2%) (3 - 2

47 8.8% 17 3.2% 4 

(34 - 69) (6.4% - 13%) (9 - 26) (1.7% - 4.9%) (1 - 1

12 7.8% 4 2.9% 1 

(9 - 17) (6.2% - 11.5%) (2 - 6) (1.5% - 4.3%) (0 - 

17 6% 5 1.8% 1 

(11 - 27) (4% - 9.6%) (2 - 9) (0.6% - 3.2%) (0 - 

65 9.6% 25 3.7% 7 

(49 - 94) (7.2% - 13.7%) (14 - 38) (2.1% - 5.5%) (3 - 1

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth. 

Cleveland

Location

AtlantaBostonChicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to:

10% 15% 

DetroitHoustonLos AngelesPhiladelphiaSacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DCNew York

Abt Associates Inc. C-3 
Table C-4. Number and Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At L

 Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to "As Is" O3 Concentrations Over Background O3 Concentr

 Location-Specific 

O3 Seasons: 2002 

O3 Concentrations* 

Number (1000s) Percent Number (1000s) Percent Number (

62 13.8% 27 6% 9 

(49 - 82) (11% - 18.3%) (18 - 37) (4% - 8.4%) (4 - 1

73 15.4% 35 7.4% 15 

(59 - 93) (12.4% - 19.7%) (24 - 47) (5.1% - 10%) (8 - 2

127 14.9% 58 6.8% 21 

(102 - 164) (12% - 19.3%) (39 - 79) (4.6% - 9.3%) (11 - 

46 18.9% 23 9.4% 10 

(38 - 57) (15.6% - 23.2%) (16 - 30) (6.7% - 12.4%) (6 - 1

75 15.7% 34 7.2% 13 

(61 - 96) (12.7% - 20%) (23 - 47) (4.9% - 9.7%) (6 - 2

58 12.2% 25 5.3% 9 

(46 - 78) (9.7% - 16.4%) (17 - 35) (3.5% - 7.4%) (4 - 1

230 14.1% 108 6.6% 41 

(193 - 296) (11.9% - 18.2%) (74 - 144) (4.5% - 8.8%) (21 - 

319 17.6% 154 8.5% 64 

(261 - 401) (14.4% - 22.2%) (109 - 206) (6% - 11.4%) (35 - 1

107 20.1% 55 10.3% 24 

(89 - 131) (16.7% - 24.6%) (39 - 72) (7.4% - 13.5%) (14 - 

20 13.5% 9 6.2% 3 

(17 - 26) (11.4% - 17.4%) (6 - 13) (4.2% - 8.3%) (2 - 

44 16.6% 21 7.8% 8 

(36 - 56) (13.5% - 20.9%) (15 - 28) (5.4% - 10.5%) (4 - 1

124 18.2% 61 8.9% 26 

(102 - 155) (15% - 22.8%) (43 - 81) (6.3% - 11.9%) (14 - 

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 1000. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth. 

Cleveland

Location

AtlantaBostonChicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to:

10% 15% 

DetroitHoustonLos AngelesPhiladelphiaSacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DCNew York

Abt Associates Inc. C-4 
C.2 Lung Function Response Among Active Children Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative

Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards

Table C-5. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet

the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4  0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4** ** 0.064/4

288 283 257 227 213 211 188 154

(79 - 533) (77 - 524) (63 - 480) (49 - 430) (42 - 406) (41 - 402) (32 - 362) (19 - 302)

177 160 158 152 132 122 117 95

(38 - 337) (30 - 308) (29 - 305) (27 - 294) (19 - 260) (15 - 242) (13 - 232) (7 - 194)

267 249 235 211 191 179 163 126

(41 - 514) (35 - 482) (30 - 457) (22 - 414) (17 - 379) (14 - 357) (10 - 328) (3 - 259)

98 90 87 75 72 67 63 50

(19 - 186) (16 - 173) (14 - 167) (10 - 146) (9 - 141) (7 - 132) (6 - 125) (3 - 102)

187 171 166 161 138 127 121 97

(37 - 356) (31 - 329) (29 - 321) (26 - 311) (18 - 271) (14 - 252) (12 - 240) (6 - 196)

216 194 186 151 144 130 116 66

(79 - 366) (67 - 330) (63 - 317) (46 - 257) (43 - 246) (37 - 220) (32 - 196) (18 - 102)

915 874 795 592 567 521 414 204

(196 - 1694) (180 - 1623) (149 - 1485) (89 - 1119) (82 - 1074) (71 - 988) (48 - 788) (14 - 383)

674 638 601 492 504 482 445 350

(122 - 1289) (107 - 1228) (91 - 1163) (51 - 973) (55 - 995) (47 - 955) (37 - 890) (16 - 714)

279 258 248 212 206 193 181 147

(70 - 516) (60 - 481) (55 - 464) (38 - 403) (36 - 393) (30 - 370) (26 - 349) (14 - 290)

79 74 69 58 55 52 46 34

(18 - 146) (16 - 138) (14 - 129) (10 - 109) (9 - 104) (8 - 100) (6 - 89) (3 - 67)

128 118 112 95 90 84 78 60

(32 - 237) (27 - 220) (24 - 209) (17 - 180) (15 - 173) (13 - 161) (11 - 150) (5 - 119)

340 306 304 268 253 230 222 180

(88 - 632) (71 - 576) (70 - 571) (53 - 512) (46 - 485) (37 - 446) (34 - 432) (19 - 357)

63 62 54 47 43 43 37 30

(4 - 166) (4 - 163) (2 - 149) (1 - 133) (1 - 125) (1 - 123) (0 - 111) (0 - 92)

37 33 32 30 26 24 22 18

(2 - 104) (1 - 94) (1 - 93) (1 - 90) (0 - 79) (0 - 73) (0 - 70) (0 - 58)

53 49 46 41 37 34 31 23

(0 - 158) (0 - 148) (0 - 140) (0 - 126) (0 - 115) (0 - 108) (0 - 99) (0 - 78)

20 18 17 15 14 13 12 9

(0 - 57) (0 - 53) (0 - 51) (0 - 44) (0 - 43) (0 - 40) (0 - 38) (0 - 31)

38 35 33 32 27 24 23 18

(1 - 109) (1 - 101) (0 - 98) (0 - 95) (0 - 82) (0 - 76) (0 - 73) (0 - 59)

51 45 43 34 33 29 26 15

(5 - 119) (4 - 107) (3 - 103) (1 - 83) (1 - 80) (1 - 72) (1 - 64) (0 - 35) Houston

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

Atlanta

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Cleveland

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Abt Associates Inc. C-5 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4  0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4** ** 0.064/4

Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** Location

189 180 161 118 113 103 82 41

(3 - 528) (2 - 506) (1 - 462) (0 - 347) (0 - 333) (0 - 307) (0 - 244) (0 - 120)

136 128 119 94 97 92 84 65

(3 - 396) (2 - 376) (1 - 356) (0 - 296) (0 - 303) (0 - 290) (0 - 269) (0 - 214)

60 54 52 43 42 38 36 28

(2 - 160) (1 - 149) (1 - 144) (0 - 124) (0 - 121) (0 - 114) (0 - 107) (0 - 88)

16 15 14 12 11 10 9 7

(0 - 45) (0 - 43) (0 - 40) (0 - 34) (0 - 32) (0 - 31) (0 - 27) (0 - 20)

27 24 23 19 18 17 15 12

(1 - 73) (0 - 68) (0 - 65) (0 - 56) (0 - 53) (0 - 50) (0 - 46) (0 - 36)

73 65 64 55 51 46 44 34

(5 - 197) (3 - 178) (3 - 177) (1 - 157) (1 - 149) (1 - 136) (0 - 132) (0 - 108)

7 7 6 4 4 4 3 2

(0 - 39) (0 - 38) (0 - 34) (0 - 30) (0 - 28) (0 - 27) (0 - 24) (0 - 19)

4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1

(0 - 23) (0 - 21) (0 - 21) (0 - 20) (0 - 17) (0 - 15) (0 - 15) (0 - 12)

5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2

(0 - 34) (0 - 32) (0 - 30) (0 - 27) (0 - 24) (0 - 22) (0 - 20) (0 - 16)

2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1

(0 - 13) (0 - 12) (0 - 11) (0 - 9) (0 - 9) (0 - 8) (0 - 8) (0 - 6)

4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1

(0 - 24) (0 - 22) (0 - 21) (0 - 21) (0 - 17) (0 - 16) (0 - 15) (0 - 12)

7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2

(0 - 31) (0 - 28) (0 - 26) (0 - 21) (0 - 20) (0 - 18) (0 - 16) (0 - 9)

18 17 14 10 9 9 7 3

(0 - 120) (0 - 114) (0 - 103) (0 - 76) (0 - 73) (0 - 67) (0 - 53) (0 - 26)

12 11 10 7 8 7 6 5

(0 - 87) (0 - 82) (0 - 77) (0 - 62) (0 - 64) (0 - 61) (0 - 56) (0 - 43)

6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2

(0 - 37) (0 - 34) (0 - 33) (0 - 27) (0 - 27) (0 - 25) (0 - 23) (0 - 19)

2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0

(0 - 10) (0 - 10) (0 - 9) (0 - 7) (0 - 7) (0 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 4)

3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1

(0 - 17) (0 - 15) (0 - 15) (0 - 12) (0 - 12) (0 - 11) (0 - 10) (0 - 8)

8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3

(0 - 46) (0 - 41) (0 - 40) (0 - 35) (0 - 33) (0 - 30) (0 - 28) (0 - 23)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Abt Associates Inc. C-6 December 2006
Table C-6. Estimated Number of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet

the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion, for

Location-Specific O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

354 349 315 283 264 263 232 191

(135 - 624) (132 - 617) (111 - 564) (91 - 511) (81 - 482) (80 - 480) (63 - 429) (42 - 358)

336 304 301 287 253 234 224 185

(133 - 587) (111 - 539) (109 - 534) (100 - 514) (78 - 461) (67 - 431) (62 - 416) (40 - 352)

580 543 514 467 427 405 375 304

(235 - 1009) (210 - 952) (191 - 909) (161 - 836) (137 - 772) (124 - 737) (107 - 688) (68 - 569)

226 206 201 175 168 154 147 121

(99 - 387) (84 - 358) (81 - 351) (63 - 311) (59 - 301) (50 - 279) (46 - 269) (31 - 226)

385 349 341 332 282 258 247 201

(166 - 664) (141 - 610) (135 - 598) (129 - 585) (96 - 508) (82 - 470) (75 - 452) (49 - 376)

183 164 157 126 120 109 95 49

(70 - 306) (60 - 275) (57 - 263) (42 - 211) (39 - 201) (34 - 180) (30 - 155) (16 - 68)

818 792 696 483 477 450 334 141

(186 - 1505) (176 - 1459) (142 - 1288) (81 - 899) (80 - 886) (73 - 837) (48 - 616) (18 - 241)

1386 1310 1244 1025 1054 1004 937 757

(529 - 2443) (478 - 2326) (434 - 2225) (299 - 1876) (316 - 1922) (286 - 1842) (247 - 1733) (156 - 1430)

567 523 508 443 427 398 379 314

(256 - 962) (224 - 898) (214 - 875) (168 - 778) (158 - 754) (139 - 710) (127 - 680) (87 - 575)

121 114 107 92 89 84 77 61

(40 - 217) (36 - 205) (32 - 194) (24 - 170) (23 - 164) (20 - 156) (17 - 145) (11 - 117)

251 233 222 194 183 171 159 128

(118 - 422) (105 - 396) (97 - 380) (78 - 338) (71 - 321) (63 - 303) (56 - 284) (37 - 234)

632 568 564 505 475 434 421 348

(266 - 1092) (223 - 998) (220 - 992) (181 - 900) (162 - 854) (137 - 789) (129 - 769) (88 - 649)

87 85 74 64 59 59 50 39

(16 - 200) (15 - 198) (10 - 179) (7 - 161) (5 - 151) (5 - 150) (2 - 133) (0 - 111)

87 76 75 70 58 52 50 39

(22 - 194) (16 - 175) (15 - 173) (13 - 165) (8 - 145) (6 - 135) (5 - 130) (2 - 108)

148 135 125 110 97 91 82 63

(32 - 328) (25 - 307) (21 - 291) (14 - 265) (10 - 243) (8 - 231) (5 - 214) (1 - 176)

60 53 51 42 40 35 33 26

(16 - 128) (12 - 117) (11 - 114) (7 - 99) (6 - 95) (4 - 88) (3 - 84) (1 - 70)

101 88 85 82 65 58 55 42

(25 - 218) (18 - 197) (17 - 193) (15 - 188) (8 - 160) (5 - 147) (4 - 141) (1 - 116)

45 39 37 29 28 25 22 12

(6 - 101) (4 - 90) (3 - 86) (2 - 69) (1 - 66) (1 - 59) (1 - 52) (0 - 25)

172 166 144 98 97 91 68 30

(4 - 471) (4 - 456) (3 - 403) (1 - 281) (1 - 277) (1 - 262) (0 - 194) (0 - 80)

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

Atlanta

Sacramento

St. Louis

Washington, DC

New York

Detroit

Houston

Location

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Cleveland

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. C-7 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Number of Occurrences (in 1000s) of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** Location

339 314 292 226 234 220 201 155

(59 - 784) (48 - 741) (38 - 705) (16 - 586) (18 - 601) (14 - 574) (9 - 538) (2 - 441)

153 136 130 107 102 93 87 68

(40 - 320) (31 - 295) (28 - 286) (17 - 249) (15 - 240) (11 - 225) (9 - 214) (3 - 179)

28 25 24 20 19 18 16 12

(3 - 69) (2 - 65) (2 - 61) (1 - 53) (1 - 51) (0 - 48) (0 - 45) (0 - 36)

70 63 59 48 45 41 37 28

(21 - 142) (17 - 132) (15 - 125) (10 - 109) (8 - 103) (6 - 97) (5 - 90) (1 - 73)

164 141 140 120 110 98 94 74

(38 - 358) (27 - 322) (26 - 319) (18 - 286) (14 - 270) (9 - 247) (8 - 240) (2 - 201)

13 12 10 8 7 7 5 4

(2 - 53) (1 - 52) (1 - 45) (0 - 40) (0 - 36) (0 - 36) (0 - 31) (0 - 25)

16 12 12 11 8 6 6 4

(4 - 54) (2 - 47) (2 - 46) (2 - 43) (1 - 36) (0 - 32) (0 - 31) (0 - 24)

23 20 17 14 12 11 9 6

(3 - 89) (2 - 81) (2 - 75) (1 - 67) (0 - 60) (0 - 56) (0 - 51) (0 - 40)

11 8 8 6 5 4 4 3

(2 - 36) (1 - 31) (1 - 30) (0 - 25) (0 - 24) (0 - 22) (0 - 20) (0 - 16)

17 13 13 12 8 7 6 4

(3 - 60) (1 - 52) (1 - 51) (1 - 49) (0 - 40) (0 - 36) (0 - 34) (0 - 27)

6 5 5 3 3 3 2 1

(1 - 27) (0 - 24) (0 - 22) (0 - 18) (0 - 17) (0 - 15) (0 - 13) (0 - 7)

17 16 14 9 8 8 6 3

(0 - 108) (0 - 105) (0 - 91) (0 - 63) (0 - 62) (0 - 58) (0 - 43) (0 - 19)

50 43 38 25 27 24 21 14

(6 - 205) (4 - 190) (2 - 178) (0 - 140) (1 - 145) (0 - 136) (0 - 126) (0 - 99)

27 22 21 15 14 12 11 7

(6 - 92) (4 - 81) (3 - 78) (1 - 65) (1 - 62) (1 - 56) (0 - 53) (0 - 42)

3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1

(0 - 17) (0 - 16) (0 - 15) (0 - 12) (0 - 12) (0 - 11) (0 - 10) (0 - 8)

13 11 10 7 6 5 5 3

(3 - 42) (2 - 37) (2 - 35) (1 - 29) (0 - 27) (0 - 25) (0 - 23) (0 - 17)

28 21 21 16 14 12 11 7

(5 - 99) (3 - 85) (3 - 84) (1 - 73) (1 - 67) (0 - 60) (0 - 58) (0 - 46)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of occurrences. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty

surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

St. Louis

Washington, DC

Los Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Sacramento

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Washington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

Atlanta

Boston

New York

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St. Louis

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Abt Associates Inc. C-8 December 2006
Table C-7. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations 

 the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in M Location-Specific 

O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 

O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 

0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 

(0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) 

0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 

(0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) 

0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 

(0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) 

0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 

(0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) 

0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 

(0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.8%) 

0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) 

0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) 

0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 

(0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) 

0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 

(0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) 

0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 

(0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) 

0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 

(0.2% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) 

0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 

(0.2% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) 

0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) 

Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Curren

DetroitHoustonLos Angeles

Location

AtlantaBostonChicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

AtlantaBostonClevelandPhiladelphiaSacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DCNew YorkChicagoClevelandDetroitHoustonLos Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. C-9 
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 

Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Curren

Location

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) 

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of occurrences. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient. 

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

New YorkPhiladelphiaSacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

AtlantaBostonChicagoClevelandDetroitHoustonLos AngelesNew YorkPhiladelphia

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm

SacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DC

Abt Associates Inc. C-10 
Table C-8. Estimated Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations 

 the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards Among Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in M Location-Specific 

O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 

O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 

0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 

(0.3% - 1.6%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.3% - 1.4%) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1.2%) 

1.1% 1% 1% 1% 0.9% 0.8% 

(0.4% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.3% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.2% - 1.5%) 

1.1% 1% 1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 

(0.4% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.4%) 

1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1% 1% 0.9% 

(0.6% - 2.2%) (0.5% - 2.1%) (0.5% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.3% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.6%) 

1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 

(0.5% - 2.2%) (0.5% - 2%) (0.4% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.3% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.6%) 

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) 

0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) 

1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 

(0.5% - 2.1%) (0.4% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.3% - 1.6%) (0.2% - 1.6%) 

1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1% 

(0.6% - 2.4%) (0.6% - 2.3%) (0.5% - 2.2%) (0.4% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.8%) 

0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 

(0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.9%) 

1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1% 0.9% 0.9% 

(0.6% - 2.2%) (0.5% - 2%) (0.5% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.7%) (0.4% - 1.6%) (0.3% - 1.5%) 

1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1% 0.9% 0.9% 

(0.5% - 2.1%) (0.4% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.3% - 1.7%) (0.3% - 1.6%) 

0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) 

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) 

0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) 

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) 

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Curren

DetroitHoustonLos Angeles

Location

AtlantaBostonChicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

AtlantaBostonClevelandPhiladelphiaSacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DCNew YorkChicagoClevelandDetroitHoustonLos Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. C-11 
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 

Percent of Occurrences of Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Curren

Location

0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) 

0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) 

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) 

0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) 

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) (0% - 0%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) 

*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of occurrences. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient. 

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm

New YorkPhiladelphiaSacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

AtlantaBostonChicagoClevelandDetroitSacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DCHoustonLos AngelesNew YorkPhiladelphia

Abt Associates Inc. C-12 
Table C-9. Number of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One Lu

 Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-H

 Location-Specific 

O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 

O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 

30 29 26 22 20 20 

(21 - 47) (20 - 46) (17 - 41) (14 - 35) (13 - 33) (12 - 32) 

22 19 19 18 14 13 

(14 - 35) (11 - 30) (11 - 30) (10 - 29) (8 - 23) (7 - 21) 

28 26 24 21 19 17 

(16 - 46) (14 - 42) (13 - 39) (11 - 34) (9 - 30) (8 - 28) 

109 9 7 7 6 

(6 - 16) (5 - 15) (5 - 14) (4 - 11) (4 - 11) (3 - 10) 

22 19 19 18 14 13 

(13 - 35) (12 - 31) (11 - 30) (10 - 29) (8 - 23) (7 - 21) 

32 28 27 22 21 19 

(23 - 48) (20 - 44) (19 - 42) (15 - 35) (14 - 34) (12 - 31) 

58 54 47 35 33 31 

(43 - 91) (40 - 85) (35 - 73) (25 - 52) (24 - 51) (23 - 47) 

72 67 62 46 48 45 

(44 - 117) (39 - 108) (35 - 99) (24 - 74) (25 - 77) (23 - 72) 

29 26 25 20 19 18 

(19 - 46) (17 - 42) (16 - 40) (12 - 33) (11 - 32) (10 - 29) 

655443

(4 - 9) (4 - 8) (4 - 8) (3 - 6) (3 - 5) (2 - 5) 

13 12 129 9 8 

(9 - 22) (8 - 20) (7 - 19) (5 - 15) (5 - 14) (5 - 13) 

41 36 35 29 27 24 

(27 - 63) (23 - 56) (23 - 56) (18 - 47) (16 - 44) (14 - 39) 

109 8 6 6 5 

(4 - 16) (3 - 16) (2 - 14) (1 - 11) (1 - 11) (1 - 10) 

655543

(1 - 11) (1 - 10) (1 - 10) (1 - 9) (0 - 8) (0 - 7) 

766544

(0 - 15) (0 - 14) (0 - 13) (0 - 11) (0 - 10) (0 - 9) 

322221

(0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) 

655533

(1 - 11) (1 - 10) (0 - 10) (0 - 9) (0 - 7) (0 - 7) 

119 8 6 6 5 

(4 - 17) (3 - 15) (3 - 14) (1 - 12) (1 - 11) (1 - 10) 

16 15 128 8 8 

(2 - 29) (2 - 27) (1 - 24) (0 - 17) (0 - 17) (0 - 15) 

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Number of Active Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated wit

the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

AtlantaSacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DCNew YorkDetroitHouston

Location

AtlantaBostonChicagoLos AngelesPhiladelphiaClevelandBostonChicagoClevelandDetroitHoustonLos Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. C-13 
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 

Number of Active Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated wit

the Current and Alternative O3 Standards** Location

19 17 16 11 11 10 

(2 - 38) (2 - 35) (1 - 32) (0 - 24) (0 - 25) (0 - 24) 

877554

(2 - 15) (1 - 14) (1 - 13) (0 - 10) (0 - 10) (0 - 9) 

211111

(0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) 

433222

(1 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 6) (0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) 

13 11 108 7 6 

(4 - 22) (3 - 19) (3 - 19) (1 - 15) (1 - 14) (1 - 13) 

221111

(0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) 

111100

(0 - 4) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) 

111100

(0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 2) 

000000

(0 - 2) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) 

111100

(0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) 

222111

(0 - 6) (0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) 

322111

(0 - 9) (0 - 8) (0 - 7) (0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) 

322111

(0 - 11) (0 - 10) (0 - 9) (0 - 6) (0 - 7) (0 - 6) 

111111

(0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) 

000000

(0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 0) 

110000

(0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) 

322111

(0 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 6) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) 

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient. 

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

St. LouisWashington, DCLos AngelesNew YorkPhiladelphiaSacramentoChicagoClevelandDetroitHoustonWashington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

AtlantaBostonNew YorkPhiladelphiaSacramentoSt. Louis

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm

Abt Associates Inc. C-14 
Table C-10. Number of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One L

 Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-H

 Location-Specific 

O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 

O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 

44 43 38 33 30 30 

(33 - 63) (32 - 62) (27 - 56) (23 - 50) (21 - 47) (21 - 47) 

52 45 45 42 34 31 

(40 - 71) (34 - 64) (34 - 63) (31 - 60) (24 - 52) (21 - 47) 

87 80 74 65 58 54 

(66 - 123) (60 - 116) (54 - 109) (46 - 99) (40 - 91) (37 - 85) 

30 26 26 21 20 18 

(24 - 41) (20 - 37) (19 - 36) (16 - 32) (15 - 30) (12 - 27) 

55 48 47 45 36 32 

(42 - 76) (36 - 69) (35 - 68) (34 - 66) (25 - 56) (22 - 51) 

32 28 27 22 21 19 

(23 - 48) (20 - 44) (19 - 42) (15 - 35) (14 - 34) (13 - 31) 

59 57 49 34 34 33 

(44 - 92) (42 - 89) (37 - 76) (25 - 53) (25 - 52) (24 - 50) 

172 159 148 113 118 110 

(128 - 250) (116 - 236) (106 - 223) (77 - 179) (80 - 185) (74 - 175) 

69 63 60 49 47 43 

(55 - 93) (48 - 86) (46 - 84) (36 - 72) (34 - 69) (31 - 65) 

11 109 7 7 6 

(8 - 16) (7 - 15) (7 - 14) (5 - 11) (5 - 11) (5 - 10) 

36 33 31 26 24 22 

(29 - 48) (26 - 45) (24 - 43) (19 - 37) (18 - 35) (16 - 33) 

81 70 70 60 55 49 

(63 - 112) (53 - 100) (52 - 100) (44 - 89) (40 - 83) (34 - 76) 

17 16 13 11 10 10 

(10 - 25) (9 - 24) (7 - 21) (5 - 18) (4 - 16) (4 - 16) 

22 18 18 16 12 10 

(13 - 31) (10 - 26) (10 - 26) (9 - 24) (6 - 19) (4 - 17) 

34 30 27 22 19 17 

(20 - 50) (17 - 45) (14 - 41) (10 - 35) (8 - 31) (6 - 29) 

13 10 108 7 6 

(8 - 18) (6 - 15) (6 - 15) (4 - 12) (4 - 11) (3 - 10) 

22 18 18 17 12 10 

(13 - 32) (11 - 27) (10 - 26) (9 - 25) (6 - 20) (4 - 17) 

119 8 6 6 5 

(5 - 17) (3 - 15) (3 - 14) (1 - 11) (1 - 11) (1 - 10) 

17 16 149 9 8 

(3 - 30) (3 - 29) (2 - 25) (1 - 17) (1 - 17) (1 - 16) 

HoustonLos AngelesBostonChicagoClevelandDetroit

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Number of Active Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated wit

the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

AtlantaSacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DCNew YorkDetroitHoustonLos AngelesPhiladelphiaCleveland

Location

AtlantaBostonChicago

Abt Associates Inc. C-15 
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 

Number of Active Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated wit

the Current and Alternative O3 Standards** Location

64 57 51 35 37 34 

(36 - 97) (30 - 89) (25 - 81) (12 - 60) (14 - 63) (11 - 58) 

29 25 24 18 17 15 

(19 - 41) (16 - 36) (15 - 35) (10 - 27) (9 - 26) (7 - 23) 

433222

(2 - 6) (1 - 5) (1 - 5) (1 - 4) (1 - 4) (0 - 3) 

16 14 12 109 8 

(10 - 22) (9 - 19) (8 - 18) (6 - 15) (5 - 13) (4 - 12) 

33 27 27 22 19 16 

(21 - 48) (16 - 40) (15 - 40) (11 - 33) (9 - 30) (7 - 26) 

443222

(1 - 10) (1 - 9) (1 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 5) (0 - 5) 

755532

(3 - 14) (2 - 11) (2 - 11) (2 - 9) (1 - 7) (0 - 6) 

986543

(3 - 19) (2 - 17) (1 - 15) (1 - 12) (0 - 10) (0 - 9) 

433221

(2 - 7) (1 - 6) (1 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 3) 

654422

(2 - 12) (1 - 10) (1 - 10) (1 - 9) (0 - 7) (0 - 6) 

222111

(1 - 6) (0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) 

332111

(0 - 10) (0 - 9) (0 - 8) (0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 5) 

17 14 127 7 6 

(5 - 37) (3 - 32) (2 - 28) (0 - 20) (1 - 21) (0 - 19) 

108 7 4 4 3 

(4 - 18) (3 - 15) (2 - 14) (1 - 10) (1 - 9) (0 - 8) 

111000

(0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) 

544222

(2 - 9) (2 - 8) (1 - 7) (1 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) 

107 7 5 4 3 

(4 - 20) (2 - 15) (2 - 15) (1 - 12) (1 - 11) (0 - 9) 

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient. 

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm

PhiladelphiaSacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DCDetroitHoustonLos AngelesNew YorkAtlantaBostonChicagoClevelandSacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

New YorkPhiladelphia

Abt Associates Inc. C-16 
Table C-11. Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One L

 Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-H

 Location-Specific 

O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2004 

O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 

6.7% 6.5% 5.7% 4.9% 4.5% 4.4% 

(4.6% - 10.4%) (4.5% - 10.2%) (3.8% - 9.1%) (3.1% - 7.9%) (2.8% - 7.3%) (2.8% - 7.2%) 

4.5% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3% 2.7% 

(2.8% - 7.2%) (2.4% - 6.4%) (2.3% - 6.3%) (2.2% - 5.9%) (1.7% - 4.9%) (1.4% - 4.4%) 

3.2% 3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.1% 2% 

(1.8% - 5.2%) (1.6% - 4.8%) (1.5% - 4.4%) (1.2% - 3.8%) (1% - 3.4%) (0.9% - 3.2%) 

4% 3.6% 3.4% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 

(2.4% - 6.5%) (2.1% - 5.8%) (2% - 5.6%) (1.5% - 4.4%) (1.4% - 4.2%) (1.2% - 3.9%) 

4.3% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 2.9% 2.6% 

(2.7% - 7%) (2.3% - 6.3%) (2.2% - 6%) (2.1% - 5.7%) (1.6% - 4.6%) (1.3% - 4.1%) 

6.5% 5.8% 5.6% 4.6% 4.4% 4% 

(4.6% - 9.9%) (4.1% - 9%) (3.8% - 8.7%) (3% - 7.3%) (2.9% - 7%) (2.5% - 6.3%) 

3.6% 3.3% 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 

(2.6% - 5.6%) (2.5% - 5.2%) (2.1% - 4.5%) (1.6% - 3.2%) (1.5% - 3.1%) (1.4% - 2.9%) 

3.9% 3.6% 3.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 

(2.4% - 6.4%) (2.1% - 5.9%) (1.9% - 5.4%) (1.3% - 4%) (1.4% - 4.2%) (1.2% - 3.9%) 

5.4% 4.9% 4.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.3% 

(3.5% - 8.6%) (3.1% - 7.9%) (2.9% - 7.5%) (2.2% - 6.1%) (2.1% - 5.9%) (1.9% - 5.4%) 

3.7% 3.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 

(2.8% - 5.9%) (2.6% - 5.5%) (2.4% - 5%) (1.9% - 3.8%) (1.8% - 3.6%) (1.6% - 3.3%) 

4.8% 4.4% 4.1% 3.4% 3.2% 2.9% 

(3.1% - 7.8%) (2.7% - 7.2%) (2.5% - 6.7%) (2% - 5.5%) (1.8% - 5.2%) (1.6% - 4.7%) 

5.9% 5.2% 5.1% 4.3% 4% 3.5% 

(4% - 9.2%) (3.4% - 8.2%) (3.3% - 8.1%) (2.6% - 6.9%) (2.4% - 6.4%) (2.1% - 5.7%) 

2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 

(0.8% - 3.6%) (0.8% - 3.5%) (0.5% - 3%) (0.3% - 2.5%) (0.2% - 2.3%) (0.2% - 2.3%) 

1.3% 1.1% 1% 1% 0.7% 0.7% 

(0.3% - 2.4%) (0.2% - 2.1%) (0.2% - 2%) (0.1% - 1.9%) (0% - 1.6%) (0% - 1.4%) 

0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 

(0% - 1.7%) (0% - 1.5%) (0% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1.1%) 

1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 

(0.1% - 2.1%) (0.1% - 1.9%) (0% - 1.8%) (0% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.3%) 

1.2% 1% 1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 

(0.2% - 2.3%) (0.1% - 2%) (0.1% - 1.9%) (0.1% - 1.8%) (0% - 1.5%) (0% - 1.3%) 

2.2% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 

(0.9% - 3.5%) (0.6% - 3.1%) (0.5% - 3%) (0.3% - 2.4%) (0.2% - 2.3%) (0.1% - 2.1%) 

ChicagoClevelandDetroitHouston

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

AtlantaBostonClevelandPhiladelphiaSacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DCNew York

Percent of Active Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Co

Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

DetroitHoustonLos Angeles

Location

AtlantaBostonChicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Abt Associates Inc. C-17 
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 

Percent of Active Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Co

Current and Alternative O3 Standards** Location

1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 

(0.1% - 1.8%) (0.1% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 1.5%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 1%) 

1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 

(0.1% - 2.1%) (0.1% - 1.9%) (0.1% - 1.7%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.3%) 

1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1% 0.9% 0.8% 

(0.4% - 2.8%) (0.3% - 2.5%) (0.2% - 2.4%) (0.1% - 2%) (0% - 1.9%) (0% - 1.7%) 

1.1% 1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 

(0.1% - 1.9%) (0.1% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 1.6%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.1%) 

1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 

(0.2% - 2.5%) (0.1% - 2.3%) (0.1% - 2.1%) (0% - 1.8%) (0% - 1.7%) (0% - 1.5%) 

1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 

(0.6% - 3.2%) (0.4% - 2.8%) (0.4% - 2.7%) (0.2% - 2.2%) (0.1% - 2.1%) (0.1% - 1.8%) 

0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.7%) 

0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) 

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) 

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) 

0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) 

0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) 

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) 

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) 

0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) 

0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) 

0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) 

0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 

(0% - 1%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) 

*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Percents in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient. 

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

SacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DCHoustonLos AngelesNew YorkPhiladelphiaBostonChicagoClevelandDetroitSt. LouisWashington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

AtlantaLos AngelesNew YorkPhiladelphiaSacramento

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm

Abt Associates Inc. C-18 
Table C-12. Percent of Active Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion Estimated to Experience At Least One L

 Associated with Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-H

 Location-Specific 

O3 Seasons: Based on Adjusting 2002 

O3 Concentrations*

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 

9.8% 9.7% 8.4% 7.3% 6.8% 6.7% 

(7.4% - 14.2%) (7.2% - 14%) (6.1% - 12.6%) (5.2% - 11.3%) (4.7% - 10.5%) (4.6% - 10.5%) 

10.9% 9.6% 9.4% 8.8% 7.3% 6.5% 

(8.4% - 15%) (7.2% - 13.5%) (7.1% - 13.3%) (6.5% - 12.7%) (5.1% - 10.9%) (4.5% - 9.9%) 

10.2% 9.4% 8.7% 7.6% 6.8% 6.3% 

(7.7% - 14.5%) (7% - 13.6%) (6.4% - 12.8%) (5.4% - 11.6%) (4.7% - 10.6%) (4.3% - 10%) 

12.3% 10.8% 10.5% 8.8% 8.4% 7.3% 

(9.6% - 16.7%) (8.3% - 15.2%) (8% - 14.8%) (6.4% - 13%) (6% - 12.5%) (5.1% - 11.2%) 

11.4% 10.1% 9.8% 9.4% 7.5% 6.7% 

(8.8% - 15.8%) (7.6% - 14.4%) (7.3% - 14.1%) (7% - 13.8%) (5.3% - 11.6%) (4.6% - 10.6%) 

6.7% 5.9% 5.7% 4.6% 4.4% 4.1% 

(4.8% - 10.1%) (4.2% - 9.2%) (3.9% - 8.8%) (3.1% - 7.3%) (2.9% - 7%) (2.7% - 6.5%) 

3.6% 3.5% 3% 2.1% 2.1% 2% 

(2.7% - 5.6%) (2.6% - 5.4%) (2.2% - 4.7%) (1.5% - 3.2%) (1.5% - 3.2%) (1.5% - 3.1%) 

9.5% 8.8% 8.2% 6.3% 6.5% 6.1% 

(7.1% - 13.8%) (6.4% - 13%) (5.9% - 12.3%) (4.2% - 9.9%) (4.4% - 10.2%) (4.1% - 9.7%) 

13% 11.7% 11.3% 9.3% 8.8% 8% 

(10.3% - 17.5%) (9.1% - 16.2%) (8.7% - 15.7%) (6.8% - 13.6%) (6.4% - 13.1%) (5.7% - 12.2%) (

7% 6.3% 5.9% 4.8% 4.5% 4.2% 

(5.5% - 10.4%) (4.9% - 9.6%) (4.5% - 9%) (3.6% - 7.5%) (3.4% - 7.1%) (3.2% - 6.7%) 

13.4% 12.3% 11.5% 9.6% 9% 8.2% 

(10.7% - 17.8%) (9.6% - 16.6%) (8.9% - 15.9%) (7.2% - 13.9%) (6.7% - 13.2%) (5.9% - 12.3%) (

11.9% 10.3% 10.2% 8.8% 8.1% 7.2% 

(9.2% - 16.4%) (7.8% - 14.7%) (7.7% - 14.6%) (6.5% - 13.1%) (5.8% - 12.2%) (5% - 11.1%) (

3.7% 3.6% 3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 

(2.1% - 5.6%) (2.1% - 5.5%) (1.5% - 4.6%) (1.1% - 4%) (0.8% - 3.6%) (0.8% - 3.6%) 

4.6% 3.8% 3.7% 3.4% 2.5% 2.1% 

(2.8% - 6.5%) (2.2% - 5.6%) (2.1% - 5.5%) (1.9% - 5.1%) (1.2% - 4%) (0.9% - 3.5%) 

4% 3.5% 3.1% 2.6% 2.2% 2% 

(2.3% - 5.8%) (2% - 5.3%) (1.6% - 4.8%) (1.2% - 4.2%) (0.9% - 3.7%) (0.7% - 3.4%) 

5.1% 4.2% 4% 3.2% 2.9% 2.4% 

(3.3% - 7.3%) (2.6% - 6.2%) (2.4% - 6%) (1.7% - 4.9%) (1.5% - 4.6%) (1.1% - 3.9%) 

4.5% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 2.5% 2.1% 

(2.8% - 6.6%) (2.2% - 5.7%) (2.1% - 5.5%) (2% - 5.3%) (1.2% - 4.1%) (0.9% - 3.6%) 

2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 

(1% - 3.6%) (0.7% - 3.2%) (0.6% - 3%) (0.3% - 2.4%) (0.3% - 2.3%) (0.2% - 2.1%) 

ChicagoClevelandDetroitHouston

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 15%

AtlantaBostonClevelandPhiladelphiaSacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DCNew York

Percent of Active Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Co

Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

DetroitHoustonLos Angeles

Location

AtlantaBostonChicago

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 10%

Abt Associates Inc. C-19 
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 

Percent of Active Children Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Co

Current and Alternative O3 Standards** Location

1% 1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 

(0.2% - 1.8%) (0.2% - 1.8%) (0.1% - 1.5%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 1%) 

3.5% 3.2% 2.8% 1.9% 2.1% 1.9% 

(2% - 5.4%) (1.7% - 4.9%) (1.4% - 4.5%) (0.7% - 3.3%) (0.8% - 3.5%) (0.6% - 3.2%) 

5.5% 4.8% 4.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 

(3.6% - 7.8%) (3% - 6.8%) (2.7% - 6.5%) (1.8% - 5.2%) (1.6% - 4.9%) (1.3% - 4.4%) 

2.5% 2.2% 2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 

(1.2% - 3.8%) (1% - 3.4%) (0.8% - 3.1%) (0.4% - 2.5%) (0.3% - 2.3%) (0.3% - 2.2%) 

5.8% 5.1% 4.6% 3.6% 3.3% 2.9% 

(3.8% - 8.1%) (3.2% - 7.2%) (2.9% - 6.7%) (2.1% - 5.4%) (1.8% - 5%) (1.5% - 4.5%) 

4.9% 4% 3.9% 3.2% 2.8% 2.4% 

(3% - 7%) (2.3% - 5.9%) (2.3% - 5.8%) (1.7% - 4.9%) (1.4% - 4.4%) (1% - 3.9%) 

1% 1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 

(0.3% - 2.1%) (0.3% - 2.1%) (0.2% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.2%) 

1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1% 0.6% 0.5% 

(0.7% - 2.9%) (0.4% - 2.3%) (0.4% - 2.2%) (0.3% - 2%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1.2%) 

1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 

(0.3% - 2.3%) (0.2% - 2%) (0.2% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.1%) 

1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 

(0.6% - 3%) (0.4% - 2.4%) (0.3% - 2.2%) (0.1% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 1.6%) (0% - 1.3%) 

1.3% 1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 

(0.4% - 2.6%) (0.3% - 2.1%) (0.2% - 2%) (0.2% - 1.9%) (0% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.2%) 

0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 1.3%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) 

0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) 

0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 

(0.3% - 2%) (0.2% - 1.8%) (0.1% - 1.6%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) 

1.8% 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 

(0.8% - 3.3%) (0.5% - 2.8%) (0.4% - 2.6%) (0.2% - 1.9%) (0.1% - 1.7%) (0.1% - 1.5%) 

0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 

(0.1% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) 

1.9% 1.6% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 

(0.8% - 3.5%) (0.6% - 3%) (0.5% - 2.7%) (0.2% - 2%) (0.2% - 1.8%) (0.1% - 1.6%) 

1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 

(0.6% - 2.9%) (0.3% - 2.3%) (0.3% - 2.2%) (0.2% - 1.8%) (0.1% - 1.5%) (0.1% - 1.3%) 

*Percents are median (0.5 fractile) percents of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient. 

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm

SacramentoSt. LouisWashington, DCHoustonLos AngelesNew YorkPhiladelphiaBostonChicagoClevelandDetroitSt. LouisWashington, DC

Response = Decrease in FEV1 Greater Than or Equal to 20%

AtlantaLos AngelesNew YorkPhiladelphiaSacramento

Abt Associates Inc. C-20 
Abt Associates Inc. C-21 December 2006

Figure C-1. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of Occurrences of Lung

Function Response Among Active School Age Children when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those

Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, for Each of

the Three Definitions of Response*

Figure C-1a. Based on 2004 Data

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Response: Change in FEV1>=10%

Response: Change in FEV1>=15%

Response: Change in FEV1>=20%

Figure C-1b. Based on 2002 Data

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2002 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Response: Change in FEV1>=10%

Response: Change in FEV1>=15%

Response: Change in FEV1>=20%

* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm

and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality.
Abt Associates Inc. C-22 December 2006

Figure C-2. Percent Reductions of Occurrences of Decrement in FEV1 >15% Among Active School Age

Children when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that

Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, Separately for Each Location*

Figure C-2a. Based on 2004 Data

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change

Atlanta: 63 (4 - 166); 0.2% (0% - 0.4%) Boston: 37 (2 - 104); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)

Chicago: 53 (0 - 158); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%) Cleveland: 20 (0 - 57); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)

Detroit: 38 (1 - 109); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%) Houston: 51 (5 - 119); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)

Los Angeles: 189 (3 - 528); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%) New York: 136 (3 - 396); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)

Philadelphia: 60 (2 - 160); 0.2% (0% - 0.4%) Sacramento: 16 (0 - 45); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)

St. Louis: 27 (1 - 73); 0.1% (0% - 0.4%) Washington, DC: 73 (5 - 197); 0.1% (0% - 0.4%)

Figure C-2b. Based on 2002 Data

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change

Atlanta: 159 (27 - 376); 0.2% (0% - 0.4%) Boston: 186 (45 - 419); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.6%)

Chicago: 298 (58 - 684); 0.2% (0% - 0.5%) Cleveland: 132 (33 - 290); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.7%)

Detroit: 205 (47 - 457); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.6%) Houston: 90 (11 - 208); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%)

Los Angeles: 342 (10 - 952); 0.1% (0% - 0.2%) New York: 679 (112 - 1607); 0.2% (0% - 0.6%)

Philadelphia: 296 (75 - 636); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.7%) Sacramento: 67 (6 - 171); 0.1% (0% - 0.3%)

St. Louis: 133 (37 - 280); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.6%) Washington, DC: 307 (68 - 690); 0.3% (0.1% - 0.6%)

* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm

and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. The percent changes from the

current standard (0.084/4) to a recent year of air quality were omitted for Los Angeles because they were so large in

magnitude (-289% in 2004 and –294% in 2002). The incidence (and 95% credible interval) and percent of total

incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3 concentrations just meet the current standard are shown for each

location in the box below each figure.
Abt Associates Inc. C-23 December 2006

Figure C-3. Percent Reductions in Aggregate Numbers (Across All Locations) of Active School Age Children

Experiencing at Least One Occurrence of Lung Function Response when O3 Concentrations are Reduced

from Those Just Meeting the Current Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard,

for Each of the Three Definitions of Response*

Figure C-3a. Based on 2004 Data

-400%

-350%

-300%

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Response: Change in FEV1>=10%

Response: Change in FEV1>=15%

Response: Change in FEV1>=20%

Figure C-3b. Based on 2002 Data

-400%

-350%

-300%

-250%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change from Current Standard

Response: Change in FEV1>=10%

Response: Change in FEV1>=15%

Response: Change in FEV1>=20%

* The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm

and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality.
Abt Associates Inc. C-24 December 2006

Figure C-4. Percent Reductions in Numbers of Active School Age Children Experiencing at Least One

Decrement in FEV1 >15% when O3 Concentrations are Reduced from Those Just Meeting the Current

Standard to Those that Would Just Meet Each Alternative Standard, Separately for Each Location*

Figure C-4a. Based on 2004 Data

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change

Atlanta: 10 (4 - 16); 2.2% (0.8% - 3.6%) Boston: 6 (1 - 11); 1.3% (0.3% - 2.4%)

Chicago: 7 (0 - 15); 0.8% (0% - 1.7%) Cleveland: 3 (0 - 5); 1.1% (0.1% - 2.1%)

Detroit: 6 (1 - 11); 1.2% (0.2% - 2.3%) Houston: 11 (4 - 17); 2.2% (0.9% - 3.5%)

Los Angeles: 16 (2 - 29); 1% (0.1% - 1.8%) New York: 19 (2 - 38); 1% (0.1% - 2.1%)

Philadelphia: 8 (2 - 15); 1.6% (0.4% - 2.8%) Sacramento: 2 (0 - 3); 1.1% (0.1% - 1.9%)

St. Louis: 4 (1 - 7); 1.3% (0.2% - 2.5%) Washington, DC: 13 (4 - 22); 1.9% (0.6% - 3.2%)

Figure C-4b. Based on 2002 Data

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2004 air

quality

0.084/4 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Alternative Standard

Percent Change

Atlanta: 17 (10 - 25); 3.7% (2.1% - 5.6%) Boston: 22 (13 - 31); 4.6% (2.8% - 6.5%)

Chicago: 34 (20 - 50); 4% (2.3% - 5.8%) Cleveland: 13 (8 - 18); 5.1% (3.3% - 7.3%)

Detroit: 22 (13 - 32); 4.5% (2.8% - 6.6%) Houston: 11 (5 - 17); 2.3% (1% - 3.6%)

Los Angeles: 17 (3 - 30); 1% (0.2% - 1.8%) New York: 64 (36 - 97); 3.5% (2% - 5.4%)

Philadelphia: 29 (19 - 41); 5.5% (3.6% - 7.8%) Sacramento: 4 (2 - 6); 2.5% (1.2% - 3.8%)

St. Louis: 16 (10 - 22); 5.8% (3.8% - 8.1%) Washington, DC: 33 (21 - 48); 4.9% (3% - 7%)

** The 8-hr average standards shown in these figures, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm

and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr

average. The figure also compares the current standard to a recent year of air quality. The percent changes from the

current standard (0.084/4) to a recent year of air quality were omitted for Los Angeles because they were so large in

magnitude (-544% in 2004 and –537% in 2002).

The incidence (and 95% credible interval) and percent of total incidence (and 95% credible interval) when O3

concentrations just meet the current standard are shown for each location in the box below each figure.
C.3 Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on Lung Function Response Estimates

Table C-13. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons:

Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split 90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split 90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split 90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split

34 34 35 20 20 18 12 11 8 6 6 2

(19 - 51) (19 - 51) (20 - 52) (8 - 34) (8 - 34) (9 - 34) (2 - 22) (2 - 22) (2 - 22) (0 - 14) (0 - 14) (0 - 13)

27 26 19 15 14 6 9 8 2 5 5 1

(6 - 49) (6 - 49) (6 - 49) (1 - 31) (1 - 31) (1 - 31) (0 - 21) (0 - 21) (0 - 20) (0 - 13) (0 - 13) (0 - 12)

57 57 59 23 23 21 13 13 9 7 6 2

(37 - 79) (37 - 80) (38 - 81) (10 - 37) (10 - 38) (10 - 38) (3 - 24) (3 - 24) (3 - 24) (0 - 14) (0 - 14) (0 - 14)

220 223 236 34 32 21 17 16 6 6 6 1

(149 - 298) (150 - 300) (155 - 307) (5 - 62) (5 - 62) (5 - 61) (1 - 36) (1 - 36) (1 - 35) (0 - 14) (0 - 14) (0 - 13)

112 113 108 43 42 26 25 24 8 14 13 2

(55 - 176) (56 - 178) (58 - 181) (6 - 84) (7 - 85) (7 - 83) (0 - 56) (0 - 56) (0 - 54) (0 - 35) (0 - 35) (0 - 34)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

Atlanta

Location

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards, Using ExposureResponse Functions that are Different Combinations of Logistic and Linear (Hockeystick)**

"as is" 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

Chicago

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Abt Associates Inc. C-25 December 2006
Table C-14. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on Number of All Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=15%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons:

Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split 90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split 90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split 90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split

59 60 62 36 37 38 21 21 19 11 10 6

(40 - 81) (40 - 82) (41 - 83) (21 - 54) (21 - 54) (22 - 56) (8 - 34) (9 - 34) (9 - 35) (1 - 21) (1 - 21) (1 - 21)

123 125 131 71 72 74 40 39 35 20 19 11

(83 - 169) (83 - 170) (86 - 173) (41 - 106) (41 - 107) (42 - 110) (15 - 66) (16 - 67) (16 - 68) (2 - 40) (2 - 40) (2 - 39)

58 58 60 24 24 22 13 13 9 7 6 3

(38 - 80) (38 - 81) (39 - 82) (11 - 38) (11 - 39) (11 - 39) (3 - 24) (3 - 24) (3 - 24) (0 - 14) (0 - 14) (0 - 14)

220 223 231 35.00 34 24 18 17 8 7 6 2

(150 - 297) (151 - 299) (154 - 303) (7 - 62) (8 - 62) (8 - 61) (1 - 35) (1 - 35) (1 - 34) (0 - 14) (0 - 14) (0 - 14)

346 350 361 142 145 146 81 80 70 43 41 23

(244 - 462) (245 - 463) (252 - 469) (79 - 216) (81 - 218) (83 - 224) (29 - 138) (30 - 139) (30 - 140) (3 - 86) (3 - 86) (4 - 84)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Location

Number of All Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards, Using ExposureResponse Functions that are Different Combinations of Logistic and Linear (Hockeystick)**

"as is" 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

New York

Atlanta

Chicago

Houston

Los Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. C-26 December 2006
Table C-15. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on Number of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons:

Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split 90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split 90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split 90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split

12 12 16 8 8 12 5 6 8 3 4 5

(9 - 17) (9 - 17) (9 - 18) (6 - 12) (6 - 13) (6 - 13) (3 - 9) (3 - 9) (3 - 10) (2 - 5) (2 - 6) (2 - 6)

14 14 21 9 9 13 6 6 8 3 3 3

(9 - 22) (9 - 23) (9 - 24) (5 - 14) (5 - 15) (5 - 16) (3 - 9) (3 - 10) (3 - 10) (1 - 6) (1 - 6) (1 - 6)

17 17 22 9 9 13 6 6 9 4 4 5

(14 - 23) (14 - 23) (14 - 24) (6 - 14) (6 - 14) (7 - 15) (4 - 10) (4 - 10) (4 - 10) (2 - 6) (2 - 6) (2 - 6)

62 64 79 16.00 17 26 9 10 15 4 4 6

(52 - 81) (52 - 82) (53 - 85) (11 - 25) (11 - 26) (12 - 28) (6 - 14) (6 - 15) (7 - 16) (2 - 6) (2 - 6) (2 - 6)

51 53 71 26 27 39 17 18 24 11 11 12

(37 - 76) (37 - 78) (38 - 82) (16 - 42) (16 - 43) (16 - 46) (9 - 28) (9 - 29) (9 - 30) (4 - 17) (4 - 18) (4 - 18)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Number of Asthmatic Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards, Using

Exposure-Response Functions that are Different Combinations of Logistic and Linear (Hockeystick)**

Location "as is" 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

Atlanta

Chicago

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. C-27 December 2006
Table C-16. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Exposure-Response Function on Number of Asthmatic Children (Ages 5-18) Engaged in Moderate Exertion

Estimated to Experience At Least One Lung Function Response (Decrease in FEV1>=10%) Associated with Exposure to a Recent Year of Air Quality and with

Exposure to O3 Concentrations That Just Meet the Current and Alternative Daily Maximum 8-Hour Standards, for Location-Specific O3 Seasons:

Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations*

90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split 90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split 90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split 90%/10% Split 80%/20% Split 50%/50% Split

18 18 22 13 13 17 9 9 12 5 6 8

(14 - 23) (14 - 23) (15 - 24) (10 - 18) (10 - 18) (10 - 19) (6 - 13) (6 - 13) (6 - 14) (3 - 9) (3 - 9) (3 - 10)

40 41 49 27 28 37 18 19 27 11 12 18

(32 - 53) (33 - 54) (33 - 55) (20 - 39) (21 - 40) (21 - 42) (12 - 29) (12 - 29) (13 - 31) (7 - 19) (7 - 19) (7 - 21)

17 17 21 9 9 13 6 6 9 4 4 5

(13 - 23) (13 - 23) (14 - 24) (6 - 14) (7 - 14) (7 - 15) (4 - 9) (4 - 10) (4 - 10) (2 - 6) (2 - 6) (2 - 6)

61 62 76 16 16 26 9 10 15 4 4 6

(51 - 79) (51 - 80) (52 - 83) (11 - 24) (11 - 25) (12 - 27) (6 - 14) (6 - 14) (6 - 16) (2 - 6) (2 - 6) (2 - 6)

118 120 136 63 65 85 43 44 63 27 28 41

(97 - 147) (97 - 149) (99 - 152) (47 - 91) (47 - 93) (49 - 97) (29 - 67) (29 - 69) (30 - 72) (16 - 44) (16 - 45) (17 - 48)

*Numbers are median (0.5 fractile) numbers of children. Numbers in parentheses below the median are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest 1000.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Location

Number of Asthmatic Children (in 1000s) Estimated to Experience at Least One Lung Function Response Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards, Using

Exposure-Response Functions that are Different Combinations of Logistic and Linear (Hockeystick)**

"as is" 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

New York

Atlanta

Chicago

Houston

Los Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. C-26 December 2006
Appendix D: Estimated Health Risks Associated with “As Is” O3 Concentrations: April

– September
Abt Associates D-1 December 2006

D.1 Figures

Figure D-1. Estimated Annual Cases of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background: Single-Pollutant, Single-City Models (April

– September)

Figure D-1a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure D-1b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Schwartz, 2004

Detroit: Ito, 2003

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Philadelphia: Moolgavkar et

al., 1995

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Schwartz, 2004

Detroit: Ito, 2003

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Philadelphia: Moolgavkar et al.,

1995

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates D-2 December 2006

Figure D-2. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April – September): Single-Pollutant vs.

Multi-Pollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004), additional pollutants, from left to right: none, CO, NO2, PM10,

SO2]

Figure D-2a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure D-2b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Cases oer 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Cases oer 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates D-3 December 2006

Figure D-3. Estimated Annual Cases of (Non-Accidental) Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April – September): Single-City Model (left

bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar)

Figure D-3a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure D-3b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Schwartz, 2004

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Schwartz, 2004

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates D-4 December 2006

Figure D-4. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April – September): Single-City Model (left

bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) – Based on Huang et al. (2004)

Figure D-4a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure D-4b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates D-5 December 2006

Figure D-5. Estimated Annual Cases of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in Detroit per

100,000 Relevant Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background (April –

September): Different Lag Models – Based on Ito (2003) [bars from left to right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and

3-day lag models]

Figure D-5a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure D-5b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-60.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0-day 1-day 2-day 3-day

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95%

CI)

-60.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0-day 1-day 2-day 3-day

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95%

CI)
Abt Associates D-6 December 2006

Figure D-6. Estimated Annual Cases of Non-Accidental Mortality Per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with Short-Term Exposure to “As Is” O3 Above Background for the Period April – September

(Based on Bell et al., 2004 – 95 U.S. Cities) – Total and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges

Figure D-6a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure D-6b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

PhiladelphiaSacramento

St. Louis

Washington, D.C.

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone<0.03 ppm

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

PhiladelphiaSacramento

St. Louis

Washington, D.C.

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm

Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone<0.03 ppm
Abt Associates D-7 December 2006

Figure D-7. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with Short-Term Exposure to “As Is” O3 Above Background for the Period April – September

(Based on Huang et al., 2004 – 19 U.S. Cities) – Total and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges

Figure D-7a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure D-7b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los

Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone <0.03 ppm

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los

Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone <0.0 ppm
D.2 Tables

Table D-1. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Atlanta, GA, April - September, 2004

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 6 0.4 0.1%

(-26 - 38) (-1.8 - 2.6) (-0.6% - 0.8%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 12 0.8 0.3%

(4 - 20) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.1% - 0.4%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 8 0.5 0.8%

(-3 - 18) (-0.2 - 1.2) (-0.3% - 1.8%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 8 0.5 0.8%

(3 - 13) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.3% - 1.3%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 4 0.3 0.5%

(1 - 8) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1% - 0.8%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 4 0.3 0.4%

(1 - 7) (0 - 0.5) (0.1% - 0.7%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 5 0.3 0.5%

(-2 - 11) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.2% - 1.2%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 3 0.2 0.3%

(0 - 7) (0 - 0.4) (0% - 0.7%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest

tenth.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects*

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, non-accidental

Abt Associates Inc. D-8 December 2006
Table D-2. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Atlanta, GA, April - September, 2002

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 9 0.6 0.2%

(-37 - 54) (-2.5 - 3.6) (-0.8% - 1.2%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 17 1.2 0.4%

(6 - 29) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.1% - 0.6%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 11 0.7 1.1%

(-4 - 25) (-0.2 - 1.7) (-0.4% - 2.6%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 11 0.8 1.2%

(4 - 18) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.5% - 1.9%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 6 0.4 0.7%

(2 - 11) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.2% - 1.1%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 6 0.4 0.6%

(1 - 10) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1% - 1%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 7 0.5 0.7%

(-3 - 16) (-0.2 - 1.1) (-0.3% - 1.7%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 5 0.3 0.5%

(0 - 9) (0 - 0.6) (0% - 1%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest

tenth.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects*

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, non-accidental

Abt Associates Inc. D-9 December 2006
Table D-3. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Boston, MA, April - September, 2004

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 7 1.0 0.3%

(2 - 12) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.1% - 0.5%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 5300 20700 9.4%

(800 - 9200) (3300 - 36300) (1.5% - 16.5%)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 8400 33100 15.1%

(3800 - 12400) (14900 - 49100) (6.8% - 22.3%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 7700 30400 13.8%

(3000 - 11800) (11800 - 46800) (5.4% - 21.3%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 5400 21400 9.7%

(1700 - 8700) (6900 - 34500) (3.1% - 15.7%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 5700 22500 8.2%

(700 - 10200) (2700 - 40200) (1% - 14.7%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 6300 24700 9%

(1200 - 10800) (4800 - 42500) (1.8% - 15.5%)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 15400 60800 11.9%

(5500 - 24200) (21800 - 95600) (4.3% - 18.7%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences of mortality are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences of respiratory symptom-days are rounded to the nearest 100.

Incidences of mortality per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth; incidences of respiratory symptom-days per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest 100. All percents are rounded to

the nearest tenth.

Mortality, non-accidental Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- wheeze

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- shortness of breath

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- shortness of breath

Gent et al. (2003)

Abt Associates Inc. D-10 December 2006
Table D-4. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Boston, MA, April - September, 2002

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 10 1.5 0.4%

(3 - 17) (0.5 - 2.5) (0.1% - 0.7%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 6900 27200 12.4%

(1100 - 11800) (4500 - 46600) (2% - 21.2%)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 10800 42700 19.5%

(5000 - 15700) (19700 - 62100) (9% - 28.3%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 10000 39400 17.9%

(4000 - 15000) (15700 - 59400) (7.1% - 27%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 7200 28400 12.9%

(2400 - 11400) (9300 - 44900) (4.2% - 20.5%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 7500 29500 10.8%

(900 - 13200) (3700 - 52000) (1.3% - 19%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 8300 32800 11.9%

(1700 - 14000) (6600 - 55300) (2.4% - 20.2%)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 20100 79200 15.5%

(7400 - 31000) (29000 - 122300) (5.7% - 23.9%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- wheeze

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- shortness of breath

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- shortness of breath

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among asthmatic

medication-users -- chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences of mortality are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences of respiratory symptom-days are rounded to the nearest 100.

Incidences of mortality per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth; incidences of respiratory symptom-days per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest 100. All percents are rounded to the

nearest tenth.

Mortality, non-accidental Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Abt Associates Inc. D-11 December 2006
Table D-5. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Chicago, IL, April - September, 2004

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 49 0.9 0.2%

(16 - 81) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.1% - 0.4%)

all 0-day lag 1 hr max. none 394 7.3 1.9%

(125 - 658) (2.3 - 12.2) (0.6% - 3.1%)

all 0-day lag 1 hr max. none 148 2.8 0.7%

(46 - 250) (0.9 - 4.6) (0.2% - 1.2%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 23 0.4 0.4%

(-21 - 66) (-0.4 - 1.2) (-0.4% - 1.3%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 38 0.7 0.7%

(14 - 61) (0.3 - 1.1) (0.3% - 1.2%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 21 0.4 0.4%

(6 - 36) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1% - 0.7%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 18 0.3 0.4%

(3 - 33) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1% - 0.6%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 22 0.4 0.4%

(-9 - 53) (-0.2 - 1) (-0.2% - 1%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 15 0.3 0.3%

(0 - 31) (0 - 0.6) (0% - 0.6%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, non-accidental

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. D-12 December 2006
Table D-6. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Chicago, IL, April - September, 2002

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 69 1.3 0.3%

(23 - 115) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.1% - 0.5%)

all 0-day lag 1 hr max. none 505 9.4 2.4%

(161 - 840) (3 - 15.6) (0.8% - 4%)

all 0-day lag 1 hr max. none 191 3.6 0.9%

(60 - 321) (1.1 - 6) (0.3% - 1.5%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 32 0.6 0.6%

(-29 - 93) (-0.5 - 1.7) (-0.6% - 1.8%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 53 1.0 1%

(20 - 86) (0.4 - 1.6) (0.4% - 1.7%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 30 0.6 0.6%

(9 - 50) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2% - 1%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 26 0.5 0.5%

(5 - 47) (0.1 - 0.9) (0.1% - 0.9%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 32 0.6 0.6%

(-12 - 75) (-0.2 - 1.4) (-0.2% - 1.5%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 22 0.4 0.4%

(0 - 44) (0 - 0.8) (0% - 0.9%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. (2004)

Mortality, non-accidental Schwartz (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Mortality, non-accidental

Abt Associates Inc. D-13 December 2006
Table D-7. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Cleveland, OH, April - September, 2004

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 27 1.9 0.4%

(-17 - 69) (-1.2 - 5) (-0.2% - 0.9%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 17 1.2 0.2%

(6 - 28) (0.4 - 2) (0.1% - 0.4%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 16 1.2 0.9%

(0 - 32) (0 - 2.3) (0% - 1.7%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 14 1.0 0.7%

(5 - 22) (0.4 - 1.6) (0.3% - 1.2%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 8 0.5 0.4%

(2 - 13) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.1% - 0.7%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 7 0.5 0.4%

(1 - 12) (0.1 - 0.9) (0.1% - 0.6%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 8 0.6 0.4%

(-3 - 19) (-0.2 - 1.4) (-0.2% - 1%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 6 0.4 0.3%

(0 - 11) (0 - 0.8) (0% - 0.6%)

65+ 1 hr max. none 59 27.0 1.5%

(15 - 102) (6.9 - 46.8) (0.4% - 2.6%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz et al. (1996)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Hospital admissions, respiratory

illness

avg of 1-day and

2-day lags

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Abt Associates Inc. D-14 December 2006
Table D-8. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Cleveland, OH, April - September, 2002

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 61 4.3 0.8%

(-38 - 157) (-2.7 - 11.3) (-0.5% - 2.1%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 38 2.8 0.5%

(13 - 64) (0.9 - 4.6) (0.2% - 0.9%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 36 2.6 2%

(-1 - 72) (-0.1 - 5.2) (0% - 3.9%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 31 2.2 1.6%

(12 - 49) (0.8 - 3.5) (0.6% - 2.6%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 17 1.2 0.9%

(5 - 29) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.3% - 1.6%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 15 1.1 0.8%

(3 - 27) (0.2 - 1.9) (0.1% - 1.4%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 18 1.3 1%

(-7 - 43) (-0.5 - 3.1) (-0.4% - 2.3%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 13 0.9 0.7%

(0 - 25) (0 - 1.8) (0% - 1.3%)

65+ 1 hr max. none 106 48.9 2.7%

(27 - 182) (12.6 - 84.1) (0.7% - 4.6%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Hospital admissions, respiratory

illness

avg of 1-day and

2-day lags

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz et al. (1996)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. D-15 December 2006
Table D-9. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Detroit, MI, April - September, 2004

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

Bell et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 33 1.6 0.4%

(-11 - 76) (-0.5 - 3.7) (-0.1% - 0.8%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 17 0.8 0.2%

(6 - 28) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Schwartz (2004) all 0-day lag 1 hr max. none 128 6.2 1.4%

(-21 - 274) (-1 - 13.3) (-0.2% - 2.9%)

all 0-day lag 1 hr max. none 70 3.4 0.7%

(22 - 117) (1.1 - 5.7) (0.2% - 1.2%)

Ito (2003) all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. none 40 2.0 0.4%

(-37 - 116) (-1.8 - 5.6) (-0.4% - 1.2%)

Huang et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 15 0.7 0.6%

(-2 - 31) (-0.1 - 1.5) (-0.1% - 1.3%)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 14 0.7 0.6%

(5 - 22) (0.3 - 1.1) (0.2% - 0.9%)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004) all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 8 0.4 0.3%

(2 - 13) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1% - 0.5%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 7 0.3 0.3%

(1 - 12) (0.1 - 0.6) (0% - 0.5%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 8 0.4 0.3%

(-3 - 19) (-0.2 - 0.9) (-0.1% - 0.8%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 6 0.3 0.2%

(0 - 11) (0 - 0.5) (0% - 0.5%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. none 13 0.6 1.6%

(-10 - 34) (-0.5 - 1.6) (-1.3% - 4.3%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 0-day lag 24 hr avg. none -26 -10.5 -1%

(-77 - 22) (-30.8 - 8.8) (-3% - 0.9%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 1-day lag 24 hr avg. none -6 -2.6 -0.2%

(-56 - 41) (-22.6 - 16.5) (-2.2% - 1.6%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 2-day lag 24 hr avg. none 8 3.1 0.3%

(-42 - 55) (-16.7 - 22.1) (-1.6% - 2.1%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 3-day lag 24 hr avg. none 22 9.0 0.9%

(-26 - 68) (-10.5 - 27.5) (-1% - 2.7%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 0-day lag 24 hr avg. none -18 -7.1 -0.9%

(-64 - 26) (-25.6 - 10.4) (-3.2% - 1.3%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 1-day lag 24 hr avg. none 17 6.8 0.9%

(-27 - 59) (-11 - 23.7) (-1.4% - 3%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 2-day lag 24 hr avg. none -3 -1.0 -0.1%

(-48 - 41) (-19.5 - 16.5) (-2.4% - 2.1%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 3-day lag 24 hr avg. none 1 0.4 0.1%

(-45 - 44) (-18 - 17.8) (-2.3% - 2.2%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Mortality, non-accidental

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), pneumonia

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), pneumonia

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), COPD

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), pneumonia

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), COPD

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Ito (2003)

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), COPD

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), COPD

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), pneumonia

Mortality, respiratory

Abt Associates Inc. D-16 December 2006
Table D-10. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Detroit, MI, April - September, 2002

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

Bell et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 57 2.8 0.6%

(-18 - 131) (-0.9 - 6.3) (-0.2% - 1.4%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 29 1.4 0.3%

(10 - 48) (0.5 - 2.3) (0.1% - 0.5%)

Schwartz (2004) all 0-day lag 1 hr max. none 181 8.8 1.9%

(-30 - 385) (-1.4 - 18.7) (-0.3% - 4.1%)

all 0-day lag 1 hr max. none 99 4.8 1%

(31 - 165) (1.5 - 8) (0.3% - 1.8%)

Ito (2003) all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. none 69 3.4 0.7%

(-64 - 198) (-3.1 - 9.6) (-0.7% - 2.1%)

Huang et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 26 1.2 1.1%

(-3 - 54) (-0.1 - 2.6) (-0.1% - 2.2%)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 24 1.1 1%

(9 - 38) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.4% - 1.6%)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004) all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 13 0.6 0.5%

(4 - 22) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2% - 0.9%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 11 0.6 0.5%

(2 - 21) (0.1 - 1) (0.1% - 0.9%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 14 0.7 0.6%

(-5 - 33) (-0.3 - 1.6) (-0.2% - 1.4%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 10 0.5 0.4%

(0 - 19) (0 - 0.9) (0% - 0.8%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. none 22 1.0 2.8%

(-18 - 57) (-0.9 - 2.7) (-2.3% - 7.2%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 0-day lag 24 hr avg. none -45 -18.3 -1.8%

(-135 - 37) (-54.3 - 15.1) (-5.2% - 1.5%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 1-day lag 24 hr avg. none -11 -4.4 -0.4%

(-98 - 70) (-39.5 - 28.1) (-3.8% - 2.7%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 2-day lag 24 hr avg. none 13 5.4 0.5%

(-72 - 93) (-29.1 - 37.4) (-2.8% - 3.6%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 3-day lag 24 hr avg. none 38 15.3 1.5%

(-45 - 116) (-18.2 - 46.5) (-1.8% - 4.5%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 0-day lag 24 hr avg. none -31 -12.3 -1.5%

(-112 - 44) (-45.1 - 17.7) (-5.6% - 2.2%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 1-day lag 24 hr avg. none 29 11.7 1.5%

(-48 - 99) (-19.1 - 39.9) (-2.4% - 5%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 2-day lag 24 hr avg. none -4 -1.7 -0.2%

(-85 - 69) (-34.2 - 27.9) (-4.3% - 3.5%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 3-day lag 24 hr avg. none 2 0.7 0.1%

(-78 - 75) (-31.5 - 30.2) (-3.9% - 3.8%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), COPD

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Ito (2003)

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), COPD

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), COPD

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), pneumonia

Mortality, respiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), COPD

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), pneumonia

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, non-accidental

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), pneumonia

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled), pneumonia

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Abt Associates Inc. D-17 December 2006
Table D-11. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Houston, TX, April - September, 2004

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

Bell et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 35 1.0 0.4%

(2 - 67) (0.1 - 2) (0% - 0.7%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 17 0.5 0.2%

(6 - 28) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Schwartz (2004) all 0-day lag 1 hr max. none 93 2.7 1%

(9 - 176) (0.3 - 5.2) (0.1% - 1.9%)

all 0-day lag 1 hr max. none 78 2.3 0.9%

(24 - 130) (0.7 - 3.8) (0.3% - 1.4%)

Huang et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 12 0.4 0.6%

(-2 - 26) (0 - 0.8) (-0.1% - 1.2%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 13 0.4 0.6%

(5 - 20) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.2% - 1%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 7 0.2 0.3%

(2 - 12) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1% - 0.6%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 6 0.2 0.3%

(1 - 11) (0 - 0.3) (0.1% - 0.5%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 7 0.2 0.4%

(-3 - 18) (-0.1 - 0.5) (-0.1% - 0.8%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 5 0.2 0.2%

(0 - 10) (0 - 0.3) (0% - 0.5%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest

tenth.

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Abt Associates Inc. D-18 December 2006
Table D-12. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Houston, TX, April - September, 2002

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

Bell et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 29 0.9 0.3%

(2 - 57) (0.1 - 1.7) (0% - 0.6%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 14 0.4 0.2%

(5 - 24) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Schwartz (2004) all 0-day lag 1 hr max. none 85 2.5 0.9%

(8 - 161) (0.2 - 4.7) (0.1% - 1.8%)

all 0-day lag 1 hr max. none 71 2.1 0.8%

(22 - 119) (0.7 - 3.5) (0.2% - 1.3%)

Huang et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 10 0.3 0.5%

(-1 - 22) (0 - 0.6) (-0.1% - 1%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 11 0.3 0.5%

(4 - 17) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.2% - 0.8%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 6 0.2 0.3%

(2 - 10) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1% - 0.5%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 5 0.2 0.2%

(1 - 9) (0 - 0.3) (0% - 0.4%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 6 0.2 0.3%

(-2 - 15) (-0.1 - 0.4) (-0.1% - 0.7%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 4 0.1 0.2%

(0 - 9) (0 - 0.3) (0% - 0.4%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities

(2004)

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. D-19 December 2006
Table D-13. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, 2004

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

Bell et al. (2004)*** all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 62 0.6 0.2%

(-149 - 271) (-1.6 - 2.8) (-0.5% - 1%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 133 1.4 0.5%

(45 - 221) (0.5 - 2.3) (0.2% - 0.8%)

Huang et al. (2004)*** all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 99 1.0 1.3%

(1 - 195) (0 - 2.1) (0% - 2.6%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 115 1.2 1.6%

(44 - 185) (0.5 - 1.9) (0.6% - 2.5%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 64 0.7 0.9%

(19 - 108) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.3% - 1.5%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 56 0.6 0.8%

(10 - 101) (0.1 - 1.1) (0.1% - 1.4%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 68 0.7 0.9%

(-26 - 161) (-0.3 - 1.7) (-0.4% - 2.2%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 47 0.5 0.6%

(0 - 94) (0 - 1) (0% - 1.3%)

Linn et al. (2000)  30+ 0-day lag 24 hr avg. none 75 0.9 1.7%

(-32 - 179) (-0.4 - 2.1) (-0.7% - 4.1%)

Linn et al. (2000)** ** 30+ 0-day lag 24 hr avg. none 46 0.5 1.2%

(-60 - 148) (-0.7 - 1.8) (-1.6% - 4%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

***Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

 Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July -

September air quality data.

Hospital admissions (unscheduled),

pulmonary illness -- summer

** Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest

tenth.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Mortality, non-accidental

Hospital admissions (unscheduled),

pulmonary illness -- spring

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, non-accidental

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Abt Associates Inc. D-20 December 2006
Table D-14. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, 2002

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

Bell et al. (2004)*** all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 51 0.5 0.2%

(-124 - 224) (-1.3 - 2.4) (-0.5% - 0.8%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 110 1.2 0.4%

(37 - 184) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.1% - 0.7%)

Huang et al. (2004)*** all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 82 0.9 1.1%

(1 - 162) (0 - 1.7) (0% - 2.2%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 95 1.0 1.3%

(36 - 153) (0.4 - 1.6) (0.5% - 2.1%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 53 0.6 0.7%

(16 - 90) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2% - 1.2%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 46 0.5 0.6%

(8 - 84) (0.1 - 0.9) (0.1% - 1.1%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 57 0.6 0.8%

(-22 - 134) (-0.2 - 1.4) (-0.3% - 1.8%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 39 0.4 0.5%

(0 - 78) (0 - 0.8) (0% - 1.1%)

Linn et al. (2000)  30+ 0-day lag 24 hr avg. none 68 0.8 1.6%

(-29 - 162) (-0.3 - 1.9) (-0.7% - 3.7%)

Linn et al. (2000)** ** 30+ 0-day lag 24 hr avg. none 44 0.5 1.2%

(-58 - 143) (-0.7 - 1.7) (-1.6% - 3.9%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

***Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)***

Mortality, non-accidental

Hospital admissions (unscheduled),

pulmonary illness -- spring

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, non-accidental

 Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September

air quality data.

Hospital admissions (unscheduled),

pulmonary illness -- summer

** Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Abt Associates Inc. D-21 December 2006
Table D-15. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, 2004

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 23 1.5 0.3%

(8 - 38) (0.5 - 2.5) (0.1% - 0.5%)

all 1-day lag 24 hr avg. none 82 5.4 1%

(52 - 112) (3.4 - 7.4) (0.6% - 1.4%)

all 1-day lag 24 hr avg. TSP, SO2 82 5.4 1%

(39 - 124) (2.6 - 8.2) (0.5% - 1.5%)

Huang et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 20 1.3 1.1%

(1 - 39) (0.1 - 2.6) (0.1% - 2.1%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 17 1.1 0.9%

(6 - 27) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.3% - 1.5%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 9 0.6 0.5%

(3 - 16) (0.2 - 1) (0.1% - 0.9%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 8 0.5 0.4%

(1 - 15) (0.1 - 1) (0.1% - 0.8%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 10 0.7 0.5%

(-4 - 24) (-0.3 - 1.6) (-0.2% - 1.3%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 7 0.5 0.4%

(0 - 14) (0 - 0.9) (0% - 0.7%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Abt Associates Inc. D-22 December 2006
Table D-16. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, 2002

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 37 2.4 0.5%

(12 - 62) (0.8 - 4.1) (0.2% - 0.8%)

all 1-day lag 24 hr avg. none 132 8.7 1.6%

(83 - 180) (5.5 - 11.9) (1% - 2.2%)

all 1-day lag 24 hr avg. TSP, SO2 131 8.6 1.6%

(63 - 198) (4.1 - 13.1) (0.8% - 2.5%)

Huang et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 33 2.2 1.8%

(2 - 63) (0.1 - 4.1) (0.1% - 3.4%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 27 1.8 1.5%

(10 - 43) (0.7 - 2.8) (0.6% - 2.3%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. CO 15 1.0 0.8%

(4 - 25) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.2% - 1.4%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. NO2 13 0.9 0.7%

(2 - 24) (0.2 - 1.6) (0.1% - 1.3%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. PM10 16 1.1 0.9%

(-6 - 38) (-0.4 - 2.5) (-0.3% - 2.1%)

all 0-day lag 24 hr avg. SO2 11 0.7 0.6%

(0 - 22) (0 - 1.5) (0% - 1.2%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Mortality, cardiorespiratory

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. D-23 December 2006
Table D-17. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Sacramento, CA, April - September, 2004

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

Bell et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 12 1.0 0.3%

(-36 - 59) (-3 - 4.8) (-0.9% - 1.4%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 18 1.4 0.4%

(6 - 29) (0.5 - 2.4) (0.1% - 0.7%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest

tenth.

Abt Associates Inc. D-24 December 2006
Table D-18. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Sacramento, CA, April - September, 2002

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

Bell et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 16 1.3 0.4%

(-48 - 78) (-3.9 - 6.4) (-1.1% - 1.9%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 23 1.9 0.6%

(8 - 39) (0.6 - 3.2) (0.2% - 0.9%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest

tenth.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Abt Associates Inc. D-25 December 2006
Table D-19. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: St. Louis, MO, April - September, 2004

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

Bell et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 3 1.0 0.2%

(-6 - 13) (-1.7 - 3.6) (-0.3% - 0.6%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 3 0.9 0.2%

(1 - 5) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.1% - 0.3%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest

tenth.

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Abt Associates Inc. D-26 December 2006
Table D-20. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: St. Louis, MO, April - September, 2002

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

Bell et al. (2004) all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 6 1.9 0.3%

(-11 - 23) (-3.1 - 6.7) (-0.5% - 1.2%)

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 6 1.7 0.3%

(2 - 10) (0.6 - 2.8) (0.1% - 0.5%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest

tenth.

Mortality, non-accidental

Mortality, non-accidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. D-27 December 2006
Table D-21. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Washington, D.C., April - September, 2004

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 8 1.5 0.3%

(3 - 14) (0.5 - 2.4) (0.1% - 0.5%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Mortality, non-accidental Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest

tenth.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Abt Associates Inc. D-28 December 2006
Table D-22. Estimated Health Risks Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: Washington, D.C., April - September, 2002

Incidence Incidence per 100,000

Relevant Population Percent of Total Incidence

all distributed lag 24 hr avg. none 15 2.6 0.6%

(5 - 25) (0.9 - 4.4) (0.2% - 0.9%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Mortality, non-accidental Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest

tenth.

Health Effects Associated with O3 Above Policy Relevant Background Levels**

Other Pollutants

in Model Health Effects* Study Ages Lag ExposureMetric

Abt Associates Inc. D-29 December 2006
Appendix E: Estimated Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations That Just

Meet the Current 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standard: April – September
Abt Associates Inc. E-1 December 2006

E.1 Figures

Figure E-1. Estimated Annual Cases of (Non-Accidental) Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just

Met: Single-Pollutant, Single-City Models (April – September)

Figure E-1a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure E-1b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Schwartz, 2004

Detroit: Ito, 2003

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Philadelphia: Moolgavkar et al.,

1995

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Schwartz, 2004

Detroit: Ito, 2003

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Philadelphia: Moolgavkar et al.,

1995

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95%CI)
Abt Associates Inc. E-2 December 2006

Figure E-2. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just

Met (April – September): Single-Pollutant vs. Multi-Pollutant Models [Huang et al. (2004), additional

pollutants, from left to right: none, CO, NO2, PM10, SO2]

Figure E-2a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure E-2b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-0.2

0.3

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Cases oer 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

-0.2

0.3

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Cases oer 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates Inc. E-3 December 2006

Figure E-3. Estimated Annual Cases of (Non-Accidental) Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just

Met (April – September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar)

Figure E-3a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure E-3b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Huang et al., 2004

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Atlanta: Bell et al., 2004

Chicago: Schwartz, 2004

Cleveland: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Bell et al., 2004

Detroit: Huang et al., 2004

Houston: Bell et al., 2004

Houston: Schwartz, 2004

Los Angeles: Bell et al., 2004

Sacramento: Bell et al., 2004

St Louis: Bell et al., 2004

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates Inc. E-4 December 2006

Figure E-4. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just

Met (April – September): Single-City Model (left bar) vs. Multi-City Model (right bar) – Based on Huang et

al. (2004)

Figure E-4a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure E-4b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-0.6

0.4

1.4

2.4

3.4

4.4

5.4

6.4

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

-0.6

0.4

1.4

2.4

3.4

4.4

5.4

6.4

Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Detroit Houston Los

Angeles

New York Philadelphia

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)
Abt Associates Inc. E-5 December 2006

Figure E-5. Estimated Annual Cases of (Unscheduled) Hospital Admissions for Pneumonia in Detroit per

100,000 Relevant Population Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Background When the

Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (April – September): Different Lag Models – Based on Ito (2003) [bars

from left to right are 0-day, 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day lag models]

Figure E-5a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure E-5b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

0-day 1-day 2-day 3-day

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95%

CI)

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

0-day 1-day 2-day 3-day

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95%

CI)
Abt Associates Inc. E-6 December 2006

Figure E-6. Estimated Annual Cases of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Policy Relevant Background for the Period April –

September When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (Based on Bell et al., 2004 – 95 U.S. Cities) – Total

and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges

Figure E-6a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure E-6b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

PhiladelphiaSacramento

St. Louis

Washington, D.C.

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone <0.03 ppm

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

PhiladelphiaSacramento

St. Louis

Washington, D.C.

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm

Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone <0.03 ppm
Abt Associates Inc. E-7 December 2006

Figure E-7. Estimated Annual Cases of Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with Short-Term Exposure to O3 Above Policy Relevant Background for the Period April –

September When the Current 8-Hour Standard is Just Met (Based on Huang et al., 2004 – 19 U.S. Cities) –

Total and Contribution of 24-Hour O3 Ranges

Figure E-7a. Based on 2004 Air Quality

Figure E-7b. Based on 2002 Air Quality

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los

Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone <0.03 ppm

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Atlanta

Chicago

Cleveland

Detroit

Houston

Los

Angeles

New York

Philadelphia

Cases per 100,000 Relevant Population (and 95% CI)

Attributable to 0.06 ppm<=ozone<0.07 ppm

Attributable to 0.05 ppm<=ozone<0.06 ppm

Attributable to 0.04 ppm<=ozone<0.05 ppm

Attributable to 0.03 ppm<=ozone<0.04 ppm

Attributable to ozone <0.03 ppm
E.2 Tables

Table E-1. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.080/4 0.070/4

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4  0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4** ** 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3

(-20 - 29) (-20 - 29) (-18 - 26) (-16 - 23) (-15 - 22) (-15 - 22) (-13 - 19) (-11 - 16)

all 24 hr avg. none 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 5

(3 - 15) (3 - 15) (3 - 14) (2 - 12) (2 - 12) (2 - 12) (2 - 10) (2 - 8)

all 24 hr avg. none 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3

(-2 - 14) (-2 - 13) (-2 - 12) (-2 - 11) (-1 - 10) (-1 - 10) (-1 - 9) (-1 - 7)

all 24 hr avg. none 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3

(2 - 10) (2 - 10) (2 - 9) (2 - 8) (2 - 8) (2 - 8) (2 - 7) (1 - 5)

all 24 hr avg. CO 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2

(1 - 6) (1 - 6) (1 - 5) (1 - 5) (1 - 4) (1 - 4) (1 - 4) (1 - 3)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2

(1 - 5) (1 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 3)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2

(-1 - 9) (-1 - 9) (-1 - 8) (-1 - 7) (-1 - 7) (-1 - 7) (-1 - 6) (-1 - 5)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1

(0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 3) (0 - 3)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.

These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects*

Bell et al. (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al.

(2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Study Ages

Mortality, nonaccidentalBell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 8 December 2006
Table E-2. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

(-1.3 - 1.9) (-1.3 - 1.9) (-1.2 - 1.8) (-1.1 - 1.6) (-1 - 1.5) (-1 - 1.5) (-0.9 - 1.3) (-0.7 - 1.1)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3

(0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.5)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.4) (-0.1 - 0.4) (-0.1 - 0.4) (-0.1 - 0.3)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Study Ages

Mortality, nonaccidentalBell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al.

(2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.

These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards** Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects*

Bell et al. (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the

nearest tenth.

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 9 December 2006
Table E-3. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(-0.4% - 0.6%) (-0.4% - 0.6%) (-0.4% - 0.6%) (-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.3% - 0.4%) (-0.2% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%

(-0.2% - 1.4%) (-0.2% - 1.4%) (-0.2% - 1.3%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.8%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.8%) (-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.5%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects*

Bell et al. (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al.

(2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Study Ages

Mortality, nonaccidentalBell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 10 December 2006
Table E-4. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4

(-30 - 43) (-30 - 43) (-28 - 40) (-26 - 38) (-24 - 35) (-24 - 35) (-22 - 32) (-19 - 27)

all 24 hr avg. none 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 9

(5 - 23) (5 - 23) (4 - 21) (4 - 20) (4 - 19) (4 - 19) (3 - 17) (3 - 14)

all 24 hr avg. none 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6

(-3 - 20) (-3 - 20) (-3 - 19) (-3 - 18) (-2 - 17) (-2 - 17) (-2 - 15) (-2 - 13)

all 24 hr avg. none 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6

(4 - 15) (4 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 13) (3 - 12) (3 - 12) (3 - 11) (2 - 9)

all 24 hr avg. CO 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3

(2 - 9) (1 - 9) (1 - 8) (1 - 8) (1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 6) (1 - 5)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3

(1 - 8) (1 - 8) (1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 6) (0 - 5)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3

(-2 - 13) (-2 - 13) (-2 - 12) (-2 - 11) (-2 - 11) (-2 - 11) (-2 - 10) (-1 - 8)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2

(0 - 8) (0 - 8) (0 - 7) (0 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 6) (0 - 6) (0 - 5)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

Mortality, nonaccidentalBell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al.

(2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects*

Bell et al. (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

distributed

lag

Study Ages

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. E -11 December 2006
Table E-5. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

(-2 - 2.9) (-2 - 2.9) (-1.9 - 2.7) (-1.8 - 2.5) (-1.6 - 2.4) (-1.7 - 2.4) (-1.5 - 2.2) (-1.3 - 1.8)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6

(0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4

(-0.2 - 1.4) (-0.2 - 1.4) (-0.2 - 1.3) (-0.2 - 1.2) (-0.2 - 1.1) (-0.2 - 1.1) (-0.1 - 1) (-0.1 - 0.9)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4

(0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

(0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.6)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

(0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards** Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects*

Bell et al. (2004) distributed

lag

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al.

(2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Study Ages

Mortality, nonaccidentalBell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Abt Associates Inc. E -12 December 2006
Table E-6. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Atlanta, GA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(-0.7% - 0.9%) (-0.6% - 0.9%) (-0.6% - 0.9%) (-0.6% - 0.8%) (-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.5% - 0.7%) (-0.4% - 0.6%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6%

(-0.3% - 2.1%) (-0.3% - 2.1%) (-0.3% - 1.9%) (-0.3% - 1.8%) (-0.2% - 1.7%) (-0.2% - 1.7%) (-0.2% - 1.6%) (-0.2% - 1.3%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%

(0.4% - 1.5%) (0.4% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.4%) (0.3% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

(-0.2% - 1.3%) (-0.2% - 1.3%) (-0.2% - 1.2%) (-0.2% - 1.2%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.2% - 1%) (-0.1% - 0.8%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Study Ages

Mortality, nonaccidentalBell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al.

(2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects*

Bell et al. (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Abt Associates Inc. E -13 December 2006
Table E-7. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3

(2 - 9) (2 - 9) (2 - 9) (2 - 8) (1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 6)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 4500 4200 4200 4100 3800 3600 3500 3100

(700 - 7900) (700 - 7500) (700 - 7400) (700 - 7300) (600 - 6700) (600 - 6400) (600 - 6200) (500 - 5500)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 7200 6800 6700 6600 6100 5800 5600 5000

(3200 - 10700)(3000 - 10200)(3000 - 10100) (2900 - 9900) (2700 - 9200) (2600 - 8800) (2500 - 8500) (2200 - 7500)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 6600 6200 6200 6100 5600 5300 5200 4500

(2500 - 10200) (2400 - 9700) (2400 - 9600) (2300 - 9400) (2100 - 8700) (2000 - 8300) (2000 - 8100) (1700 - 7100)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 4600 4400 4300 4200 3900 3700 3600 3100

(1500 - 7500) (1400 - 7100) (1400 - 7000) (1300 - 6900) (1200 - 6300) (1200 - 6100) (1100 - 5900) (1000 - 5200)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 4800 4600 4500 4400 4100 3900 3800 3300

(600 - 8700) (600 - 8300) (500 - 8200) (500 - 8000) (500 - 7400) (500 - 7100) (500 - 6900) (400 - 6000)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 5300 5000 5000 4900 4500 4300 4100 3600

(1000 - 9200) (1000 - 8700) (1000 - 8700) (900 - 8500) (900 - 7800) (800 - 7500) (800 - 7200) (700 - 6400)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 13200 12400 12300 12100 11100 10600 10300 9000

(4700 - 20800)(4400 - 19700)(4400 - 19600)(4300 - 19200)(3900 - 17700)(3700 - 16900)(3600 - 16400)(3200 - 14500)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Exposure

Metric

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Study Ages Lag

distributed

lag

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

shortness of breath

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Mortality, non-accidental Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects*

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Gent et al. (2003)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences of mortality are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences of respiratory symptom-days are rounded to the nearest 100.

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

wheeze

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

shortness of breath

Abt Associates Inc. E - 14 December 2006
Table E-8. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

(0.3 - 1.4) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.8)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 17700 16700 16600 16200 14900 14200 13800 12000

(2800 - 31100) (2700 - 29500) (2600 - 29200) (2600 - 28700) (2400 - 26400) (2200 - 25200) (2200 - 24500) (1900 - 21500)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 28400 26800 26600 26100 24100 23000 22300 19600

(12700 - 42400) (12000 - 40200) (11900 - 39900) (11600 - 39200) (10700 - 36200) (10200 - 34700) (9800 - 33700) (8600 - 29700)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 26000 24600 24400 23900 22100 21000 20400 17900

(10000 - 40300) (9500 - 38300) (9400 - 38000) (9200 - 37300) (8400 - 34400) (8000 - 32900) (7800 - 32000) (6800 - 28200)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 18200 17200 17100 16700 15300 14600 14200 12400

(5800 - 29500) (5500 - 28000) (5400 - 27700) (5300 - 27200) (4900 - 25000) (4600 - 23900) (4500 - 23200) (3900 - 20400)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 19100 18000 17900 17500 16100 15300 14900 13000

(2300 - 34500) (2200 - 32600) (2200 - 32400) (2100 - 31700) (1900 - 29200) (1800 - 27900) (1800 - 27100) (1500 - 23800)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 21000 19800 19700 19200 17700 16800 16300 14300

(4100 - 36300) (3800 - 34400) (3800 - 34100) (3700 - 33400) (3400 - 30800) (3200 - 29400) (3100 - 28500) (2700 - 25100)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 51900 49000 48700 47700 43900 41800 40600 35600

(18500 - 82200) (17400 - 77900) (17300 - 77300) (16900 - 75800) (15500 - 70000) (14800 - 66900) (14300 - 64900) (12500 - 57100)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and

Alternative O3 Standards**

Mortality, non-accidental Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

shortness of breath

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

distributed

lag

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences of mortality per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth; incidences of respiratory symptom-days per 100,000 relevant population are rounded

to the nearest 100.

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

wheeze

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

shortness of breath

Gent et al. (2003)

Abt Associates Inc. E - 15 December 2006
Table E-9. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 8% 7.6% 7.5% 7.4% 6.8% 6.5% 6.3% 5.5%

(1.3% - 14.2%) (1.2% - 13.4%) (1.2% - 13.3%) (1.2% - 13.1%) (1.1% - 12%) (1% - 11.5%) (1% - 11.2%) (0.9% - 9.8%)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 12.9% 12.2% 12.1% 11.9% 11% 10.5% 10.1% 8.9%

(5.8% - 19.3%) (5.5% - 18.3%) (5.4% - 18.2%) (5.3% - 17.8%) (4.9% - 16.5%) (4.6% - 15.8%) (4.5% - 15.3%) (3.9% - 13.5%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 11.9% 11.2% 11.1% 10.9% 10% 9.6% 9.3% 8.2%

(4.6% - 18.4%) (4.3% - 17.4%) (4.3% - 17.3%) (4.2% - 17%) (3.8% - 15.7%) (3.7% - 15%) (3.5% - 14.6%) (3.1% - 12.8%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 8.3% 7.8% 7.8% 7.6% 7% 6.7% 6.5% 5.7%

(2.6% - 13.4%) (2.5% - 12.7%) (2.5% - 12.6%) (2.4% - 12.4%) (2.2% - 11.4%) (2.1% - 10.9%) (2% - 10.6%) (1.8% - 9.3%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 7% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% 5.9% 5.6% 5.4% 4.7%

(0.8% - 12.6%) (0.8% - 11.9%) (0.8% - 11.8%) (0.8% - 11.6%) (0.7% - 10.6%) (0.7% - 10.2%) (0.6% - 9.9%) (0.6% - 8.7%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 7.6% 7.2% 7.2% 7% 6.4% 6.1% 5.9% 5.2%

(1.5% - 13.2%) (1.4% - 12.5%) (1.4% - 12.4%) (1.4% - 12.2%) (1.2% - 11.2%) (1.2% - 10.7%) (1.1% - 10.4%) (1% - 9.1%)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 10.1% 9.6% 9.5% 9.3% 8.6% 8.2% 7.9% 6.9%

(3.6% - 16%) (3.4% - 15.2%) (3.4% - 15.1%) (3.3% - 14.8%) (3% - 13.7%) (2.9% - 13%) (2.8% - 12.7%) (2.4% - 11.2%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Exposure

Metric

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Mortality, non-accidental Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

distributed

lag

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

wheeze

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

shortness of breath

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

shortness of breath

Gent et al. (2003)

Abt Associates Inc. E - 16 December 2006
Table E-10. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6

(3 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 14) (3 - 13) (3 - 12) (2 - 12) (2 - 12) (2 - 10)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 6100 5800 5800 5700 5300 5200 5000 4600

(1000 - 10500) (900 - 10100) (900 - 10000) (900 - 9900) (900 - 9300) (800 - 9000) (800 - 8800) (700 - 8000)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 9600 9300 9200 9000 8500 8200 8000 7300

(4400 - 14100) (4200 - 13600) (4200 - 13500) (4100 - 13300) (3800 - 12600) (3700 - 12200) (3600 - 11900) (3300 - 10900)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 8900 8500 8500 8300 7800 7600 7400 6700

(3500 - 13500) (3300 - 13000) (3300 - 12900) (3200 - 12700) (3000 - 12000) (2900 - 11600) (2900 - 11400) (2600 - 10400)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 6400 6100 6000 5900 5600 5400 5300 4800

(2100 - 10100) (2000 - 9700) (2000 - 9700) (1900 - 9500) (1800 - 9000) (1700 - 8700) (1700 - 8500) (1500 - 7700)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 6600 6300 6300 6100 5800 5600 5400 4900

(800 - 11700) (800 - 11300) (800 - 11200) (800 - 11000) (700 - 10300) (700 - 10000) (700 - 9800) (600 - 8900)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 7300 7000 7000 6800 6400 6200 6100 5500

(1500 - 12500) (1400 - 12000) (1400 - 11900) (1300 - 11700) (1300 - 11000) (1200 - 10700) (1200 - 10400) (1100 - 9500)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 17800 17100 16900 16600 15600 15100 14700 13400

(6500 - 27700) (6200 - 26600) (6100 - 26400) (6000 - 25900) (5600 - 24500) (5400 - 23800) (5300 - 23200) (4800 - 21200)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Gent et al. (2003)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences of mortality are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences of respiratory symptom-days are rounded to the nearest 100.

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

wheeze

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

shortness of breath

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

shortness of breath

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Mortality, non-accidental Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects*

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Exposure

Metric

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Study Ages Lag

distributed

lag

Abt Associates Inc. E -17 December 2006
Table E-11. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1 1 0.9

(0.4 - 2.1) (0.4 - 2) (0.4 - 2) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.5)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 24100 23000 22800 22400 21000 20400 19800 18000

(3900 - 41600) (3700 - 39900) (3700 - 39700) (3600 - 38900) (3400 - 36700) (3300 - 35600) (3200 - 34700) (2900 - 31600)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 38100 36500 36200 35500 33500 32500 31700 28800

(17400 - 55800) (16600 - 53700) (16500 - 53400) (16100 - 52400) (15200 - 49600) (14700 - 48200) (14300 - 47100) (12900 - 43000)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 35000 33600 33300 32700 30800 29900 29100 26400

(13800 - 53300) (13200 - 51200) (13100 - 50900) (12800 - 50000) (12000 - 47300) (11600 - 45900) (11300 - 44800) (10200 - 41000)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 25100 24000 23800 23400 22000 21300 20800 18800

(8200 - 40000) (7800 - 38400) (7700 - 38200) (7600 - 37400) (7100 - 35300) (6800 - 34300) (6700 - 33500) (6000 - 30500)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 26100 25000 24800 24200 22800 22000 21500 19400

(3200 - 46300) (3100 - 44400) (3000 - 44100) (3000 - 43200) (2800 - 40800) (2700 - 39500) (2600 - 38500) (2300 - 35000)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 29000 27700 27500 27000 25400 24500 24000 21700

(5700 - 49300) (5500 - 47300) (5400 - 47000) (5300 - 46100) (5000 - 43500) (4800 - 42200) (4700 - 41200) (4200 - 37600)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 70200 67300 66800 65400 61600 59600 58100 52700

(25500 - 109400)(24400 - 105100)(24200 - 104300)(23600 - 102400)(22200 - 96700) (21400 - 93800) (20800 - 91600) (18800 - 83500)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

distributed

lag

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences of mortality per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth; incidences of respiratory symptom-days per 100,000 relevant population are

rounded to the nearest 100.

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

wheeze

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

shortness of breath

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

shortness of breath

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and

Alternative O3 Standards**

Mortality, non-accidental Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study

Abt Associates Inc. E -18 December 2006
Table E-12. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Boston, MA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 11% 10.5% 10.4% 10.2% 9.6% 9.3% 9% 8.2%

(1.8% - 18.9%) (1.7% - 18.2%) (1.7% - 18.1%) (1.6% - 17.7%) (1.5% - 16.7%) (1.5% - 16.2%) (1.4% - 15.8%) (1.3% - 14.4%)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 17.3% 16.6% 16.5% 16.2% 15.3% 14.8% 14.4% 13.1%

(7.9% - 25.4%) (7.6% - 24.5%) (7.5% - 24.3%) (7.3% - 23.9%) (6.9% - 22.6%) (6.7% - 21.9%) (6.5% - 21.4%) (5.9% - 19.6%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 16% 15.3% 15.2% 14.9% 14% 13.6% 13.3% 12%

(6.3% - 24.3%) (6% - 23.3%) (6% - 23.2%) (5.8% - 22.7%) (5.5% - 21.5%) (5.3% - 20.9%) (5.1% - 20.4%) (4.6% - 18.7%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 11.4% 10.9% 10.9% 10.6% 10% 9.7% 9.5% 8.6%

(3.7% - 18.2%) (3.5% - 17.5%) (3.5% - 17.4%) (3.4% - 17%) (3.2% - 16.1%) (3.1% - 15.6%) (3% - 15.2%) (2.7% - 13.9%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 1 hr max. none 9.5% 9.1% 9% 8.8% 8.3% 8% 7.8% 7.1%

(1.2% - 16.9%) (1.1% - 16.2%) (1.1% - 16.1%) (1.1% - 15.8%) (1% - 14.9%) (1% - 14.4%) (0.9% - 14%) (0.9% - 12.8%)

0 - 12 1-day lag 8 hr max. none 10.6% 10.1% 10% 9.8% 9.2% 8.9% 8.7% 7.9%

(2.1% - 17.9%) (2% - 17.2%) (2% - 17.1%) (1.9% - 16.8%) (1.8% - 15.8%) (1.8% - 15.4%) (1.7% - 15%) (1.5% - 13.7%)

0 - 12 0-day lag 1 hr max. PM2.5 13.7% 13.1% 13% 12.8% 12% 11.6% 11.3% 10.3%

(5% - 21.3%) (4.8% - 20.5%) (4.7% - 20.4%) (4.6% - 20%) (4.3% - 18.9%) (4.2% - 18.3%) (4.1% - 17.9%) (3.7% - 16.3%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

****This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

wheeze

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

shortness of breath

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

shortness of breath

Gent et al. (2003)

Lag

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

Respiratory symptoms among

asthmatic medication-users --

chest tightness

Gent et al. (2003)

distributed

lag

Exposure

Metric

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Mortality, non-accidental Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages

Abt Associates Inc. E -19 December 2006
Table E-13. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 33 31 29 26 23 22 19 14

(11 - 55) (10 - 52) (10 - 48) (9 - 43) (8 - 39) (7 - 36) (6 - 32) (5 - 24)

all 1 hr max. none 314 300 288 268 249 238 222 183

(99 - 525) (95 - 501) (91 - 482) (85 - 448) (79 - 417) (75 - 399) (70 - 372) (58 - 307)

all 1 hr max. none 118 113 108 101 93 89 83 69

(37 - 199) (35 - 190) (34 - 182) (31 - 170) (29 - 157) (28 - 151) (26 - 140) (21 - 116)

all 24 hr avg. none 16 15 14 12 11 10 9 7

(-14 - 45) (-13 - 42) (-12 - 39) (-11 - 35) (-10 - 31) (-9 - 29) (-8 - 26) (-6 - 19)

all 24 hr avg. none 26 24 22 20 18 17 15 11

(10 - 41) (9 - 39) (9 - 36) (8 - 32) (7 - 29) (6 - 27) (6 - 24) (4 - 18)

all 24 hr avg. CO 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 6

(4 - 24) (4 - 23) (4 - 21) (3 - 19) (3 - 17) (3 - 16) (2 - 14) (2 - 10)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 5

(2 - 23) (2 - 21) (2 - 20) (2 - 18) (2 - 16) (1 - 15) (1 - 13) (1 - 10)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 7

(-6 - 36) (-5 - 34) (-5 - 32) (-5 - 28) (-4 - 25) (-4 - 24) (-3 - 21) (-2 - 16)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 5

(0 - 21) (0 - 20) (0 - 18) (0 - 16) (0 - 15) (0 - 14) (0 - 12) (0 - 9)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These

nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

0-day lag

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Study Ages Lag

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects*

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 20 December 2006
Table E-14. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

(0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.4)

all 1 hr max. none 5.8 5.6 5.4 5 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.4

(1.9 - 9.8) (1.8 - 9.3) (1.7 - 9) (1.6 - 8.3) (1.5 - 7.7) (1.4 - 7.4) (1.3 - 6.9) (1.1 - 5.7)

all 1 hr max. none 2.2 2.1 2 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3

(0.7 - 3.7) (0.7 - 3.5) (0.6 - 3.4) (0.6 - 3.2) (0.5 - 2.9) (0.5 - 2.8) (0.5 - 2.6) (0.4 - 2.2)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(-0.3 - 0.8) (-0.2 - 0.8) (-0.2 - 0.7) (-0.2 - 0.7) (-0.2 - 0.6) (-0.2 - 0.5) (-0.2 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.4)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.4) (-0.1 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards** 

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects*

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Study

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Ages Lag

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These

nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

0-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 21 December 2006
Table E-15. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

all 1 hr max. none 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9%

(0.5% - 2.5%) (0.5% - 2.4%) (0.4% - 2.3%) (0.4% - 2.1%) (0.4% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.3% - 1.8%) (0.3% - 1.5%)

all 1 hr max. none 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.3% - 0.9%) (-0.3% - 0.8%) (-0.2% - 0.8%) (-0.2% - 0.7%) (-0.2% - 0.6%) (-0.2% - 0.6%) (-0.2% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.4%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

0-day lag

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Study Ages Lag

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects*

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 22 December 2006
Table E-16. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 55 52 50 47 44 43 40 34

(18 - 91) (18 - 87) (17 - 84) (16 - 79) (15 - 74) (14 - 71) (13 - 67) (11 - 57)

all 1 hr max. none 427 412 401 381 361 350 335 294

(136 - 712) (131 - 687) (127 - 669) (121 - 636) (115 - 603) (111 - 585) (106 - 559) (93 - 493)

all 1 hr max. none 161 156 151 144 136 132 126 111

(51 - 271) (49 - 261) (47 - 254) (45 - 242) (43 - 229) (41 - 222) (39 - 212) (35 - 187)

all 24 hr avg. none 26 25 24 22 21 20 19 16

(-23 - 73) (-22 - 70) (-21 - 68) (-20 - 64) (-19 - 60) (-18 - 57) (-17 - 54) (-14 - 46)

all 24 hr avg. none 42 40 39 36 34 33 31 26

(16 - 68) (15 - 65) (15 - 63) (14 - 59) (13 - 55) (13 - 53) (12 - 50) (10 - 43)

all 24 hr avg. CO 23 22 22 20 19 18 17 15

(7 - 40) (7 - 38) (6 - 37) (6 - 34) (6 - 32) (5 - 31) (5 - 29) (4 - 25)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 20 19 19 18 16 16 15 13

(4 - 37) (3 - 35) (3 - 34) (3 - 32) (3 - 30) (3 - 29) (3 - 27) (2 - 23)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 25 24 23 22 20 20 18 16

(-10 - 59) (-9 - 57) (-9 - 55) (-8 - 51) (-8 - 48) (-8 - 46) (-7 - 44) (-6 - 37)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 17 17 16 15 14 14 13 11

(0 - 34) (0 - 33) (0 - 32) (0 - 30) (0 - 28) (0 - 27) (0 - 25) (0 - 22)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards** 

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects*

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Study

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Ages Lag

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E -23 December 2006
Table E-17. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6

(0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.1)

all 1 hr max. none 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.2 5.5

(2.5 - 13.2) (2.4 - 12.8) (2.4 - 12.4) (2.3 - 11.8) (2.1 - 11.2) (2.1 - 10.9) (2 - 10.4) (1.7 - 9.2)

all 1 hr max. none 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1

(0.9 - 5) (0.9 - 4.9) (0.9 - 4.7) (0.8 - 4.5) (0.8 - 4.3) (0.8 - 4.1) (0.7 - 3.9) (0.6 - 3.5)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

(-0.4 - 1.4) (-0.4 - 1.3) (-0.4 - 1.3) (-0.4 - 1.2) (-0.3 - 1.1) (-0.3 - 1.1) (-0.3 - 1) (-0.3 - 0.9)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

(0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.3 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

(0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

(-0.2 - 1.1) (-0.2 - 1.1) (-0.2 - 1) (-0.2 - 1) (-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.1 - 0.7)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

(0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

0-day lag

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Study Ages Lag

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards**

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects*

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. E -24 December 2006
Table E-18. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Chicago, IL, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

all 1 hr max. none 2% 2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4%

(0.6% - 3.4%) (0.6% - 3.3%) (0.6% - 3.2%) (0.6% - 3%) (0.5% - 2.9%) (0.5% - 2.8%) (0.5% - 2.7%) (0.4% - 2.3%)

all 1 hr max. none 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%

(0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(-0.5% - 1.4%) (-0.4% - 1.4%) (-0.4% - 1.3%) (-0.4% - 1.2%) (-0.4% - 1.2%) (-0.4% - 1.1%) (-0.3% - 1.1%) (-0.3% - 0.9%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%

(0.3% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.8%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(-0.2% - 1.2%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.2% - 1%) (-0.2% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.7%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%

(0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** 

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects*

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Study

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Ages Lag

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E -25 December 2006
Table E-19. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 19 18 17 15 14 14 13 10

(-12 - 49) (-11 - 46) (-11 - 44) (-9 - 39) (-9 - 37) (-9 - 36) (-8 - 33) (-6 - 26)

all 24 hr avg. none 12 11 11 9 9 9 8 6

(4 - 20) (4 - 19) (4 - 18) (3 - 16) (3 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 13) (2 - 11)

all 24 hr avg. none 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 6

(0 - 23) (0 - 21) (0 - 21) (0 - 18) (0 - 17) (0 - 17) (0 - 15) (0 - 12)

all 24 hr avg. none 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 5

(4 - 15) (3 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 12) (3 - 12) (3 - 11) (2 - 10) (2 - 8)

all 24 hr avg. CO 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3

(2 - 9) (1 - 9) (1 - 8) (1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 6) (1 - 5)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2

(1 - 8) (1 - 8) (1 - 8) (1 - 7) (1 - 6) (1 - 6) (1 - 6) (0 - 5)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3

(-2 - 13) (-2 - 13) (-2 - 12) (-2 - 11) (-2 - 10) (-2 - 10) (-1 - 9) (-1 - 7)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2

(0 - 8) (0 - 7) (0 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 6) (0 - 6) (0 - 5) (0 - 4)

65+ 1 hr max. none 45 43 42 37 36 35 32 27

(12 - 79) (11 - 75) (11 - 72) (10 - 65) (9 - 63) (9 - 60) (8 - 56) (7 - 47)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.

These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Hospital

admissions,

respiratory illness

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Bell et al. (2004) distributed

lag

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Schwartz et al.

(1996)

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al.

(2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

avg of 1-day

and 2-day

lags

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004) 0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 26 December 2006
Table E-20. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 1 0.9 0.7

(-0.8 - 3.5) (-0.8 - 3.3) (-0.8 - 3.2) (-0.7 - 2.8) (-0.6 - 2.7) (-0.6 - 2.6) (-0.6 - 2.4) (-0.5 - 1.9)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

(0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.8)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4

(0 - 1.6) (0 - 1.5) (0 - 1.5) (0 - 1.3) (0 - 1.2) (0 - 1.2) (0 - 1.1) (0 - 0.9)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4

(0.3 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2

(0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(-0.2 - 1) (-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.5)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

(0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3)

65+ 1 hr max. none 20.9 19.8 19.2 17.3 16.6 16 14.9 12.4

(5.3 - 36.2) (5.1 - 34.4) (4.9 - 33.4) (4.4 - 30) (4.2 - 28.8) (4.1 - 27.8) (3.8 - 25.9) (3.2 - 21.6)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards** 

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Schwartz et al.

(1996)

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al.

(2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

avg of 1-day

and 2-day

lags

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Bell et al. (2004) distributed

lag

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.

These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Hospital

admissions,

respiratory illness

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 27 December 2006
Table E-21. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.2% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.4%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

(0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.4%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

65+ 1 hr max. none 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%

(0.3% - 2%) (0.3% - 1.9%) (0.3% - 1.8%) (0.2% - 1.6%) (0.2% - 1.6%) (0.2% - 1.5%) (0.2% - 1.4%) (0.2% - 1.2%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Hospital

admissions,

respiratory illness

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Bell et al. (2004) distributed

lag

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Schwartz et al.

(1996)

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al.

(2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

avg of 1-day

and 2-day

lags

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004) 0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 28 December 2006
Table E-22. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 49 47 46 43 42 40 39 35

(-31 - 128) (-30 - 123) (-29 - 120) (-27 - 112) (-26 - 109) (-25 - 105) (-25 - 102) (-22 - 91)

all 24 hr avg. none 31 30 29 27 27 26 25 22

(10 - 52) (10 - 50) (10 - 49) (9 - 45) (9 - 44) (9 - 43) (8 - 41) (7 - 37)

all 24 hr avg. none 30 28 28 26 25 24 24 21

(-1 - 59) (-1 - 57) (-1 - 56) (-1 - 52) (-1 - 51) (-1 - 49) (-1 - 47) (-1 - 42)

all 24 hr avg. none 25 24 24 22 21 21 20 18

(10 - 40) (9 - 39) (9 - 38) (8 - 35) (8 - 34) (8 - 33) (8 - 32) (7 - 29)

all 24 hr avg. CO 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 10

(4 - 24) (4 - 23) (4 - 22) (4 - 21) (3 - 20) (3 - 19) (3 - 19) (3 - 17)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9

(2 - 22) (2 - 21) (2 - 21) (2 - 19) (2 - 19) (2 - 18) (2 - 18) (2 - 16)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 11

(-6 - 35) (-6 - 34) (-5 - 33) (-5 - 31) (-5 - 30) (-5 - 29) (-5 - 28) (-4 - 25)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7

(0 - 20) (0 - 20) (0 - 19) (0 - 18) (0 - 18) (0 - 17) (0 - 16) (0 - 15)

65+ 1 hr max. none 89 85 84 78 76 73 71 64

(23 - 153) (22 - 147) (22 - 145) (20 - 135) (20 - 132) (19 - 127) (18 - 123) (16 - 111)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards** 

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Schwartz et al.

(1996)

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al.

(2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

avg of 1-day

and 2-day

lags

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Bell et al. (2004) distributed

lag

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Hospital

admissions,

respiratory illness

Abt Associates Inc. E -29 December 2006
Table E-23. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.5

(-2.2 - 9.2) (-2.1 - 8.8) (-2.1 - 8.6) (-1.9 - 8) (-1.9 - 7.8) (-1.8 - 7.5) (-1.8 - 7.3) (-1.6 - 6.5)

all 24 hr avg. none 2.2 2.2 2.1 2 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6

(0.8 - 3.7) (0.7 - 3.6) (0.7 - 3.5) (0.7 - 3.3) (0.6 - 3.2) (0.6 - 3.1) (0.6 - 3) (0.5 - 2.7)

all 24 hr avg. none 2.1 2 2 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5

(-0.1 - 4.2) (-0.1 - 4.1) (-0.1 - 4) (0 - 3.7) (0 - 3.6) (0 - 3.5) (0 - 3.4) (0 - 3)

all 24 hr avg. none 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3

(0.7 - 2.9) (0.7 - 2.8) (0.6 - 2.7) (0.6 - 2.5) (0.6 - 2.5) (0.6 - 2.4) (0.5 - 2.3) (0.5 - 2.1)

all 24 hr avg. CO 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7

(0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.2 - 1.4) (0.2 - 1.4) (0.2 - 1.2)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6

(0.2 - 1.6) (0.1 - 1.5) (0.1 - 1.5) (0.1 - 1.4) (0.1 - 1.3) (0.1 - 1.3) (0.1 - 1.3) (0.1 - 1.1)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 1.1 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8

(-0.4 - 2.5) (-0.4 - 2.4) (-0.4 - 2.4) (-0.4 - 2.2) (-0.4 - 2.2) (-0.3 - 2.1) (-0.3 - 2) (-0.3 - 1.8)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

(0 - 1.5) (0 - 1.4) (0 - 1.4) (0 - 1.3) (0 - 1.3) (0 - 1.2) (0 - 1.2) (0 - 1)

65+ 1 hr max. none 40.9 39.3 38.6 36 35.2 33.9 32.9 29.5

(10.5 - 70.6) (10.1 - 67.9) (9.9 - 66.7) (9.2 - 62.1) (9 - 60.8) (8.7 - 58.6) (8.4 - 56.8) (7.5 - 51.1)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Hospital

admissions,

respiratory illness

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Bell et al. (2004) distributed

lag

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Schwartz et al.

(1996)

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al.

(2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

avg of 1-day

and 2-day

lags

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. E -30 December 2006
Table E-24. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Cleveland, OH, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

(-0.4% - 1.7%) (-0.4% - 1.7%) (-0.4% - 1.6%) (-0.4% - 1.5%) (-0.4% - 1.5%) (-0.3% - 1.4%) (-0.3% - 1.4%) (-0.3% - 1.2%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

all 24 hr avg. none 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1%

(0% - 3.2%) (0% - 3%) (0% - 3%) (0% - 2.8%) (0% - 2.7%) (0% - 2.6%) (0% - 2.5%) (0% - 2.3%)

all 24 hr avg. none 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1%

(0.5% - 2.1%) (0.5% - 2.1%) (0.5% - 2%) (0.4% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.7%) (0.4% - 1.5%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%

(0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

(0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6%

(-0.3% - 1.9%) (-0.3% - 1.8%) (-0.3% - 1.8%) (-0.3% - 1.6%) (-0.3% - 1.6%) (-0.3% - 1.5%) (-0.2% - 1.5%) (-0.2% - 1.3%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

(0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.8%)

65+ 1 hr max. none 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6%

(0.6% - 3.9%) (0.6% - 3.7%) (0.5% - 3.7%) (0.5% - 3.4%) (0.5% - 3.3%) (0.5% - 3.2%) (0.5% - 3.1%) (0.4% - 2.8%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** 

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Schwartz et al.

(1996)

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al.

(2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

avg of 1-day

and 2-day

lags

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Bell et al. (2004) distributed

lag

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Hospital

admissions,

respiratory illness

Abt Associates Inc. E -31 December 2006
Table E-25. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 24 22 21 21 17 16 15 11

(-8 - 56) (-7 - 51) (-7 - 49) (-7 - 48) (-6 - 40) (-5 - 38) (-5 - 35) (-4 - 27)

all 24 hr avg. none 12 11 11 11 9 8 8 6

(4 - 20) (4 - 19) (4 - 18) (4 - 18) (3 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 13) (2 - 10)

Schwartz (2004) all 1 hr max. none 107 102 99 97 87 83 78 66

(-17 - 229) (-17 - 218) (-16 - 212) (-16 - 209) (-14 - 186) (-13 - 178) (-13 - 168) (-11 - 142)

all 1 hr max. none 58 55 54 53 47 45 42 36

(18 - 98) (17 - 93) (17 - 91) (17 - 89) (15 - 79) (14 - 76) (13 - 72) (11 - 61)

all 24 hr avg. none 29 27 26 25 21 20 18 14

(-27 - 85) (-25 - 78) (-24 - 75) (-23 - 73) (-20 - 62) (-18 - 57) (-17 - 53) (-13 - 41)

all 24 hr avg. none 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 5

(-1 - 23) (-1 - 21) (-1 - 20) (-1 - 20) (-1 - 17) (-1 - 15) (-1 - 14) (-1 - 11)

all 24 hr avg. none 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 5

(4 - 16) (4 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 14) (3 - 12) (3 - 11) (2 - 10) (2 - 8)

all 24 hr avg. CO 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3

(2 - 9) (2 - 9) (1 - 8) (1 - 8) (1 - 7) (1 - 6) (1 - 6) (1 - 5)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2

(1 - 9) (1 - 8) (1 - 8) (1 - 8) (1 - 6) (1 - 6) (1 - 5) (0 - 4)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3

(-2 - 14) (-2 - 13) (-2 - 13) (-2 - 12) (-2 - 10) (-2 - 10) (-1 - 9) (-1 - 7)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2

(0 - 8) (0 - 8) (0 - 7) (0 - 7) (0 - 6) (0 - 6) (0 - 5) (0 - 4)

all 24 hr avg. none 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 4

(-7 - 25) (-7 - 23) (-7 - 22) (-6 - 22) (-5 - 18) (-5 - 17) (-5 - 16) (-3 - 12)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Ito (2003)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Ito (2003)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Lag

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects* Study Ages

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Huang et al. (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

respiratory

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 32 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Health Effects* Study Ages Lag

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -19 -18 -17 -16 -14 -13 -12 -9

(-55 - 16) (-51 - 15) (-49 - 14) (-48 - 14) (-40 - 12) (-37 - 11) (-34 - 10) (-26 - 8)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -5 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2

(-41 - 30) (-38 - 28) (-36 - 27) (-35 - 26) (-29 - 22) (-27 - 20) (-25 - 19) (-19 - 14)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3

(-30 - 40) (-28 - 37) (-27 - 36) (-26 - 35) (-22 - 29) (-20 - 27) (-19 - 25) (-14 - 19)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 16 15 14 14 12 11 10 8

(-19 - 50) (-17 - 46) (-17 - 44) (-16 - 43) (-14 - 37) (-13 - 34) (-12 - 31) (-9 - 24)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -13 -12 -11 -11 -9 -9 -8 -6

(-46 - 19) (-42 - 17) (-41 - 17) (-39 - 16) (-33 - 14) (-31 - 13) (-28 - 12) (-22 - 9)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 12 11 11 11 9 8 8 6

(-20 - 43) (-18 - 40) (-18 - 38) (-17 - 37) (-14 - 31) (-13 - 29) (-12 - 27) (-9 - 21)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1

(-35 - 30) (-32 - 28) (-31 - 27) (-30 - 26) (-25 - 22) (-24 - 20) (-22 - 19) (-17 - 14)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0

(-32 - 32) (-30 - 30) (-29 - 29) (-28 - 28) (-23 - 24) (-22 - 22) (-20 - 20) (-15 - 16)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These

nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

0-day lag

1-day lag

2-day lag

3-day lag

2-day lag

3-day lag

0-day lag

1-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 33 December 2006
Table E-26. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 1.2 1.1 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6

(-0.4 - 2.7) (-0.3 - 2.5) (-0.3 - 2.4) (-0.3 - 2.3) (-0.3 - 2) (-0.3 - 1.8) (-0.2 - 1.7) (-0.2 - 1.3)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

(0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5)

Schwartz (2004) all 1 hr max. none 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.2 4 3.8 3.2

(-0.8 - 11.1) (-0.8 - 10.6) (-0.8 - 10.3) (-0.8 - 10.1) (-0.7 - 9) (-0.7 - 8.6) (-0.6 - 8.2) (-0.5 - 6.9)

all 1 hr max. none 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7

(0.9 - 4.7) (0.8 - 4.5) (0.8 - 4.4) (0.8 - 4.3) (0.7 - 3.8) (0.7 - 3.7) (0.6 - 3.5) (0.5 - 2.9)

all 24 hr avg. none 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1 1 0.9 0.7

(-1.3 - 4.1) (-1.2 - 3.8) (-1.2 - 3.6) (-1.1 - 3.6) (-1 - 3) (-0.9 - 2.8) (-0.8 - 2.6) (-0.6 - 2)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

(-0.1 - 1.1) (-0.1 - 1) (-0.1 - 1) (-0.1 - 1) (0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.5)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.4) (-0.1 - 0.3)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(-0.4 - 1.2) (-0.3 - 1.1) (-0.3 - 1.1) (-0.3 - 1) (-0.3 - 0.9) (-0.2 - 0.8) (-0.2 - 0.8) (-0.2 - 0.6)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

respiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Ito (2003)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Ito (2003)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Ages Lag

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Health Effects* Study

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 34 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards** Ages Lag

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Health Effects* Study

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -7.6 -7.1 -6.8 -6.6 -5.5 -5.1 -4.7 -3.6

(-22.3 - 6.4) (-20.6 - 5.9) (-19.7 - 5.7) (-19.2 - 5.5) (-16.1 - 4.7) (-14.9 - 4.3) (-13.7 - 4) (-10.5 - 3.1)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -1.9 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 -0.9

(-16.3 - 12) (-15.1 - 11.1) (-14.5 - 10.7) (-14.1 - 10.4) (-11.8 - 8.8) (-11 - 8.1) (-10.1 - 7.5) (-7.7 - 5.8)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 2.3 2.1 2 2 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1

(-12.1 - 16.1) (-11.2 - 14.9) (-10.7 - 14.3) (-10.4 - 13.9) (-8.8 - 11.7) (-8.1 - 10.9) (-7.5 - 10.1) (-5.7 - 7.7)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 6.5 6 5.8 5.6 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.1

(-7.6 - 20.1) (-7 - 18.6) (-6.7 - 17.9) (-6.5 - 17.4) (-5.5 - 14.7) (-5.1 - 13.7) (-4.7 - 12.6) (-3.6 - 9.7)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -5.2 -4.8 -4.6 -4.4 -3.7 -3.5 -3.2 -2.4

(-18.5 - 7.5) (-17 - 7) (-16.3 - 6.7) (-15.9 - 6.5) (-13.3 - 5.5) (-12.4 - 5.1) (-11.4 - 4.7) (-8.7 - 3.6)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 5 4.6 4.4 4.3 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.4

(-8 - 17.3) (-7.4 - 16) (-7 - 15.4) (-6.9 - 15) (-5.8 - 12.6) (-5.4 - 11.8) (-4.9 - 10.8) (-3.8 - 8.3)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3

(-14.1 - 12) (-13 - 11.1) (-12.5 - 10.7) (-12.1 - 10.4) (-10.2 - 8.8) (-9.5 - 8.1) (-8.7 - 7.5) (-6.7 - 5.8)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(-13 - 13) (-12 - 12) (-11.5 - 11.5) (-11.2 - 11.2) (-9.4 - 9.5) (-8.7 - 8.8) (-8 - 8.1) (-6.1 - 6.3)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These

nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

0-day lag

1-day lag

2-day lag

3-day lag

0-day lag

1-day lag

2-day lag

3-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 35 December 2006
Table E-27. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) all 1 hr max. none 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%

(-0.2% - 2.4%) (-0.2% - 2.3%) (-0.2% - 2.3%) (-0.2% - 2.2%) (-0.1% - 2%) (-0.1% - 1.9%) (-0.1% - 1.8%) (-0.1% - 1.5%)

all 1 hr max. none 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.3% - 0.9%) (-0.3% - 0.8%) (-0.3% - 0.8%) (-0.2% - 0.8%) (-0.2% - 0.7%) (-0.2% - 0.6%) (-0.2% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.4%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(-0.1% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. none 1.2% 1.1% 1% 1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%

(-0.9% - 3.2%) (-0.9% - 2.9%) (-0.8% - 2.8%) (-0.8% - 2.8%) (-0.7% - 2.3%) (-0.6% - 2.2%) (-0.6% - 2%) (-0.4% - 1.5%)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Ito (2003)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Ito (2003)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Lag

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects* Study Ages

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Huang et al. (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

respiratory

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 36 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Health Effects* Study Ages Lag

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -0.7% -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.3%

(-2.1% - 0.6%) (-2% - 0.6%) (-1.9% - 0.5%) (-1.8% - 0.5%) (-1.6% - 0.5%) (-1.4% - 0.4%) (-1.3% - 0.4%) (-1% - 0.3%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%

(-1.6% - 1.2%) (-1.5% - 1.1%) (-1.4% - 1%) (-1.4% - 1%) (-1.1% - 0.8%) (-1.1% - 0.8%) (-1% - 0.7%) (-0.7% - 0.6%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(-1.2% - 1.6%) (-1.1% - 1.4%) (-1% - 1.4%) (-1% - 1.3%) (-0.8% - 1.1%) (-0.8% - 1.1%) (-0.7% - 1%) (-0.6% - 0.7%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(-0.7% - 1.9%) (-0.7% - 1.8%) (-0.6% - 1.7%) (-0.6% - 1.7%) (-0.5% - 1.4%) (-0.5% - 1.3%) (-0.5% - 1.2%) (-0.3% - 0.9%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -0.5% -0.4% -0.4% -0.3%

(-2.3% - 0.9%) (-2.1% - 0.9%) (-2% - 0.8%) (-2% - 0.8%) (-1.7% - 0.7%) (-1.5% - 0.6%) (-1.4% - 0.6%) (-1.1% - 0.5%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(-1% - 2.2%) (-0.9% - 2%) (-0.9% - 1.9%) (-0.9% - 1.9%) (-0.7% - 1.6%) (-0.7% - 1.5%) (-0.6% - 1.4%) (-0.5% - 1%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 0%

(-1.8% - 1.5%) (-1.6% - 1.4%) (-1.6% - 1.3%) (-1.5% - 1.3%) (-1.3% - 1.1%) (-1.2% - 1%) (-1.1% - 0.9%) (-0.8% - 0.7%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(-1.6% - 1.6%) (-1.5% - 1.5%) (-1.4% - 1.4%) (-1.4% - 1.4%) (-1.2% - 1.2%) (-1.1% - 1.1%) (-1% - 1%) (-0.8% - 0.8%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

0-day lag

1-day lag

2-day lag

3-day lag

2-day lag

3-day lag

0-day lag

1-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 37 December 2006
Table E-28. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 46 43 43 42 38 35 34 29

(-15 - 106) (-14 - 100) (-14 - 98) (-14 - 97) (-12 - 87) (-11 - 81) (-11 - 79) (-9 - 67)

all 24 hr avg. none 24 22 22 22 19 18 18 15

(8 - 39) (7 - 37) (7 - 36) (7 - 36) (6 - 32) (6 - 30) (6 - 29) (5 - 25)

Schwartz (2004) all 1 hr max. none 158 150 148 147 134 128 125 111

(-26 - 336) (-24 - 320) (-24 - 316) (-24 - 313) (-22 - 287) (-21 - 274) (-20 - 268) (-18 - 239)

all 1 hr max. none 86 82 81 80 73 70 68 61

(27 - 144) (26 - 137) (25 - 136) (25 - 134) (23 - 123) (22 - 117) (21 - 115) (19 - 102)

all 24 hr avg. none 56 53 52 51 46 43 42 36

(-52 - 162) (-49 - 151) (-48 - 150) (-48 - 147) (-42 - 132) (-40 - 124) (-39 - 120) (-33 - 103)

all 24 hr avg. none 21 20 19 19 17 16 16 13

(-2 - 44) (-2 - 41) (-2 - 40) (-2 - 40) (-2 - 36) (-2 - 33) (-2 - 33) (-2 - 28)

all 24 hr avg. none 19 18 18 17 16 15 14 12

(7 - 31) (7 - 29) (7 - 29) (7 - 28) (6 - 25) (6 - 24) (5 - 23) (5 - 20)

all 24 hr avg. CO 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 7

(3 - 18) (3 - 17) (3 - 17) (3 - 17) (3 - 15) (2 - 14) (2 - 13) (2 - 11)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6

(2 - 17) (2 - 16) (2 - 16) (2 - 15) (1 - 14) (1 - 13) (1 - 13) (1 - 11)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7

(-4 - 27) (-4 - 25) (-4 - 25) (-4 - 25) (-4 - 22) (-3 - 21) (-3 - 20) (-3 - 17)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5

(0 - 16) (0 - 15) (0 - 15) (0 - 14) (0 - 13) (0 - 12) (0 - 12) (0 - 10)

all 24 hr avg. none 18 17 16 16 14 13 13 11

(-14 - 46) (-13 - 44) (-13 - 43) (-13 - 42) (-12 - 38) (-11 - 36) (-11 - 35) (-9 - 30)

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

Mortality,

respiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Huang et al. (2004)

Exposure

Metric

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Lag

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects* Study Ages

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Ito (2003)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Ito (2003)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Abt Associates Inc. E -38 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Exposure

Metric Health Effects* Study Ages Lag

Other Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Pollutants

in Model

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -37 -34 -34 -33 -30 -28 -27 -23

(-109 - 30) (-102 - 29) (-100 - 28) (-99 - 28) (-88 - 25) (-82 - 23) (-80 - 23) (-68 - 19)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -9 -8 -8 -8 -7 -7 -7 -6

(-79 - 57) (-74 - 53) (-73 - 53) (-72 - 52) (-64 - 46) (-60 - 44) (-58 - 42) (-50 - 36)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 7

(-58 - 76) (-55 - 71) (-54 - 70) (-53 - 69) (-47 - 62) (-44 - 58) (-43 - 57) (-37 - 48)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 31 29 29 28 25 24 23 20

(-37 - 94) (-34 - 89) (-34 - 87) (-33 - 86) (-30 - 77) (-28 - 73) (-27 - 71) (-23 - 60)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -25 -23 -23 -23 -20 -19 -18 -16

(-90 - 36) (-84 - 34) (-83 - 33) (-82 - 33) (-73 - 29) (-68 - 27) (-66 - 27) (-56 - 23)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 24 22 22 22 19 18 18 15

(-38 - 81) (-36 - 76) (-35 - 75) (-35 - 74) (-31 - 66) (-29 - 62) (-28 - 61) (-24 - 52)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2

(-69 - 57) (-64 - 53) (-63 - 52) (-62 - 52) (-55 - 46) (-52 - 43) (-50 - 42) (-43 - 36)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

(-63 - 61) (-59 - 57) (-58 - 57) (-57 - 56) (-51 - 50) (-48 - 47) (-47 - 46) (-39 - 39)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

2-day lag

3-day lag

2-day lag

3-day lag

0-day lag

1-day lag

0-day lag

1-day lag

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Abt Associates Inc. E -39 December 2006
Table E-29. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 2.2 2.1 2.1 2 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.4

(-0.7 - 5.2) (-0.7 - 4.8) (-0.7 - 4.8) (-0.7 - 4.7) (-0.6 - 4.2) (-0.6 - 3.9) (-0.5 - 3.8) (-0.5 - 3.3)

all 24 hr avg. none 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7

(0.4 - 1.9) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.2 - 1.2)

Schwartz (2004) all 1 hr max. none 7.7 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.5 6.2 6.1 5.4

(-1.3 - 16.3) (-1.2 - 15.5) (-1.2 - 15.4) (-1.2 - 15.2) (-1.1 - 13.9) (-1 - 13.3) (-1 - 13) (-0.9 - 11.6)

all 1 hr max. none 4.2 4 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.9

(1.3 - 7) (1.2 - 6.6) (1.2 - 6.6) (1.2 - 6.5) (1.1 - 6) (1.1 - 5.7) (1 - 5.6) (0.9 - 4.9)

all 24 hr avg. none 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.1 2 1.7

(-2.5 - 7.8) (-2.4 - 7.4) (-2.3 - 7.3) (-2.3 - 7.2) (-2.1 - 6.4) (-1.9 - 6) (-1.9 - 5.8) (-1.6 - 5)

all 24 hr avg. none 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6

(-0.1 - 2.1) (-0.1 - 2) (-0.1 - 2) (-0.1 - 1.9) (-0.1 - 1.7) (-0.1 - 1.6) (-0.1 - 1.6) (-0.1 - 1.3)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6

(0.4 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.3 - 1.1) (0.3 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

(0.2 - 0.9) (0.1 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

(0.1 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

(-0.2 - 1.3) (-0.2 - 1.2) (-0.2 - 1.2) (-0.2 - 1.2) (-0.2 - 1.1) (-0.2 - 1) (-0.2 - 1) (-0.1 - 0.8)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.5)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5

(-0.7 - 2.3) (-0.6 - 2.1) (-0.6 - 2.1) (-0.6 - 2.1) (-0.6 - 1.9) (-0.5 - 1.7) (-0.5 - 1.7) (-0.4 - 1.5)

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Health Effects* Study

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards**

Ito (2003)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Ito (2003)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Ages Lag

Huang et al. (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

respiratory

Abt Associates Inc. E -40 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric Health Effects* Study

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards** Ages Lag

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -14.8 -13.9 -13.7 -13.5 -12 -11.2 -10.9 -9.3

(-43.7 - 12.3) (-40.8 - 11.5) (-40.3 - 11.4) (-39.7 - 11.2) (-35.3 - 10) (-33 - 9.4) (-32.1 - 9.1) (-27.2 - 7.8)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -3.6 -3.4 -3.3 -3.3 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7 -2.3

(-31.9 - 22.9) (-29.8 - 21.5) (-29.4 - 21.2) (-29 - 20.9) (-25.8 - 18.7) (-24.1 - 17.5) (-23.5 - 17.1) (-19.9 - 14.6)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 4.4 4.1 4 4 3.6 3.3 3.2 2.8

(-23.5 - 30.5) (-22 - 28.6) (-21.7 - 28.2) (-21.4 - 27.8) (-19 - 24.9) (-17.8 - 23.4) (-17.3 - 22.8) (-14.7 - 19.5)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 12.5 11.7 11.6 11.4 10.2 9.5 9.3 7.9

(-14.7 - 38) (-13.8 - 35.6) (-13.6 - 35.2) (-13.4 - 34.7) (-11.9 - 31.1) (-11.2 - 29.2) (-10.9 - 28.4) (-9.3 - 24.3)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -10 -9.3 -9.2 -9.1 -8.1 -7.6 -7.4 -6.3

(-36.3 - 14.4) (-33.9 - 13.5) (-33.5 - 13.3) (-32.9 - 13.1) (-29.3 - 11.7) (-27.4 - 11) (-26.6 - 10.7) (-22.6 - 9.1)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 9.5 8.9 8.8 8.7 7.7 7.3 7.1 6

(-15.5 - 32.6) (-14.5 - 30.6) (-14.3 - 30.2) (-14.1 - 29.8) (-12.5 - 26.7) (-11.7 - 25.1) (-11.4 - 24.4) (-9.7 - 20.9)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -1.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1 -0.9

(-27.6 - 22.8) (-25.8 - 21.4) (-25.4 - 21.1) (-25 - 20.8) (-22.3 - 18.6) (-20.9 - 17.5) (-20.3 - 17) (-17.2 - 14.5)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

(-25.4 - 24.6) (-23.8 - 23.1) (-23.5 - 22.8) (-23.1 - 22.5) (-20.6 - 20.1) (-19.2 - 18.9) (-18.7 - 18.4) (-15.9 - 15.7)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

1-day lag

2-day lag

3-day lag

0-day lag

1-day lag

2-day lag

3-day lag

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Abt Associates Inc. E -41 December 2006
Table E-30. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Detroit, MI, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.1% - 1.1%) (-0.1% - 1%) (-0.1% - 1%) (-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.8%) (-0.1% - 0.7%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

Schwartz (2004) all 1 hr max. none 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2%

(-0.3% - 3.6%) (-0.3% - 3.4%) (-0.3% - 3.4%) (-0.3% - 3.3%) (-0.2% - 3%) (-0.2% - 2.9%) (-0.2% - 2.8%) (-0.2% - 2.5%)

all 1 hr max. none 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6%

(0.3% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.4%) (0.3% - 1.4%) (0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1.1%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

(-0.6% - 1.7%) (-0.5% - 1.6%) (-0.5% - 1.6%) (-0.5% - 1.6%) (-0.5% - 1.4%) (-0.4% - 1.3%) (-0.4% - 1.3%) (-0.3% - 1.1%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%

(-0.1% - 1.8%) (-0.1% - 1.7%) (-0.1% - 1.7%) (-0.1% - 1.6%) (-0.1% - 1.5%) (-0.1% - 1.4%) (-0.1% - 1.3%) (-0.1% - 1.1%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%

(0.3% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.8%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.2% - 1%) (-0.2% - 1%) (-0.2% - 1%) (-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.8%) (-0.1% - 0.7%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%)

all 24 hr avg. none 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4%

(-1.8% - 5.9%) (-1.7% - 5.6%) (-1.7% - 5.5%) (-1.7% - 5.4%) (-1.5% - 4.9%) (-1.4% - 4.6%) (-1.3% - 4.5%) (-1.1% - 3.8%)

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

Mortality,

respiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Huang et al. (2004)

Exposure

Metric

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Lag

Mortality, nonaccidental

Health Effects* Study Ages

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Ito (2003)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Ito (2003)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Abt Associates Inc. E -42 December 2006
0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Exposure

Metric Health Effects* Study Ages Lag

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** Other

Pollutants

in Model

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -1.4% -1.3% -1.3% -1.3% -1.2% -1.1% -1.1% -0.9%

(-4.2% - 1.2%) (-3.9% - 1.1%) (-3.9% - 1.1%) (-3.8% - 1.1%) (-3.4% - 1%) (-3.2% - 0.9%) (-3.1% - 0.9%) (-2.6% - 0.8%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.2%

(-3.1% - 2.2%) (-2.9% - 2.1%) (-2.8% - 2%) (-2.8% - 2%) (-2.5% - 1.8%) (-2.3% - 1.7%) (-2.3% - 1.6%) (-1.9% - 1.4%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

(-2.3% - 2.9%) (-2.1% - 2.8%) (-2.1% - 2.7%) (-2.1% - 2.7%) (-1.8% - 2.4%) (-1.7% - 2.3%) (-1.7% - 2.2%) (-1.4% - 1.9%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%

(-1.4% - 3.7%) (-1.3% - 3.4%) (-1.3% - 3.4%) (-1.3% - 3.3%) (-1.2% - 3%) (-1.1% - 2.8%) (-1% - 2.7%) (-0.9% - 2.3%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -1.2% -1.2% -1.2% -1.1% -1% -0.9% -0.9% -0.8%

(-4.5% - 1.8%) (-4.2% - 1.7%) (-4.2% - 1.7%) (-4.1% - 1.6%) (-3.7% - 1.5%) (-3.4% - 1.4%) (-3.3% - 1.3%) (-2.8% - 1.1%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%

(-1.9% - 4.1%) (-1.8% - 3.8%) (-1.8% - 3.8%) (-1.8% - 3.7%) (-1.6% - 3.3%) (-1.5% - 3.1%) (-1.4% - 3.1%) (-1.2% - 2.6%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%

(-3.5% - 2.9%) (-3.2% - 2.7%) (-3.2% - 2.6%) (-3.1% - 2.6%) (-2.8% - 2.3%) (-2.6% - 2.2%) (-2.5% - 2.1%) (-2.2% - 1.8%)

Ito (2003) 65+ 24 hr avg. none 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(-3.2% - 3.1%) (-3% - 2.9%) (-2.9% - 2.9%) (-2.9% - 2.8%) (-2.6% - 2.5%) (-2.4% - 2.4%) (-2.3% - 2.3%) (-2% - 2%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

2-day lag

3-day lag

2-day lag

3-day lag

0-day lag

1-day lag

0-day lag

1-day lag

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

Hospital

admissions

(unscheduled),

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Abt Associates Inc. E -43 December 2006
Table E-31. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 22 20 19 17 16 15 13 8

(1 - 42) (1 - 39) (1 - 37) (1 - 32) (1 - 30) (1 - 28) (1 - 25) (0 - 15)

all 24 hr avg. none 11 10 10 8 8 7 6 4

(4 - 18) (3 - 16) (3 - 16) (3 - 13) (3 - 13) (2 - 12) (2 - 11) (1 - 6)

Schwartz (2004) all 1 hr max. none 70 66 65 59 57 55 52 42

(6 - 132) (6 - 126) (6 - 123) (5 - 112) (5 - 109) (5 - 104) (5 - 99) (4 - 80)

all 1 hr max. none 58 55 54 49 48 46 43 35

(18 - 98) (17 - 93) (17 - 91) (15 - 83) (15 - 81) (14 - 77) (14 - 73) (11 - 59)

Huang et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 3

(-1 - 16) (-1 - 15) (-1 - 15) (-1 - 12) (-1 - 12) (-1 - 11) (-1 - 10) (0 - 6)

all 24 hr avg. none 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 3

(3 - 13) (3 - 12) (3 - 11) (2 - 10) (2 - 9) (2 - 8) (2 - 8) (1 - 5)

all 24 hr avg. CO 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2

(1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 6) (1 - 5) (1 - 5) (1 - 4) (0 - 3)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 1

(1 - 7) (1 - 6) (1 - 6) (1 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 3)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2

(-2 - 11) (-2 - 10) (-2 - 10) (-1 - 8) (-1 - 8) (-1 - 7) (-1 - 7) (-1 - 4)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1

(0 - 6) (0 - 6) (0 - 6) (0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 2)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These

nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 44 December 2006
Table E-32. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2

(0 - 1.2) (0 - 1.1) (0 - 1.1) (0 - 0.9) (0 - 0.9) (0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.4)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

Schwartz (2004) all 1 hr max. none 2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.2

(0.2 - 3.9) (0.2 - 3.7) (0.2 - 3.6) (0.2 - 3.3) (0.2 - 3.2) (0.1 - 3.1) (0.1 - 2.9) (0.1 - 2.3)

all 1 hr max. none 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1

(0.5 - 2.9) (0.5 - 2.7) (0.5 - 2.7) (0.5 - 2.4) (0.4 - 2.4) (0.4 - 2.3) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.3 - 1.7)

Huang et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

(0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.2) (0.1 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0

(0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0

(0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0

(-0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0

(0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards** 

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These

nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 45 December 2006
Table E-33. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) all 1 hr max. none 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%

(0.1% - 1.5%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.9%)

all 1 hr max. none 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%)

Huang et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 46 December 2006
Table E-34. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 18 16 16 13 13 12 11 7

(1 - 34) (1 - 32) (1 - 31) (1 - 26) (1 - 25) (1 - 23) (1 - 21) (0 - 13)

all 24 hr avg. none 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 3

(3 - 15) (3 - 13) (3 - 13) (2 - 11) (2 - 10) (2 - 10) (2 - 9) (1 - 5)

Schwartz (2004) all 1 hr max. none 63 59 58 53 51 48 46 36

(6 - 119) (5 - 113) (5 - 110) (5 - 100) (5 - 97) (4 - 92) (4 - 87) (3 - 69)

all 1 hr max. none 53 50 49 44 43 40 38 30

(16 - 88) (16 - 84) (15 - 82) (14 - 74) (13 - 72) (13 - 68) (12 - 64) (9 - 51)

Huang et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 2

(-1 - 13) (-1 - 12) (-1 - 12) (-1 - 10) (-1 - 10) (-1 - 9) (0 - 8) (0 - 5)

all 24 hr avg. none 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 2

(2 - 10) (2 - 10) (2 - 9) (2 - 8) (2 - 7) (2 - 7) (1 - 6) (1 - 4)

all 24 hr avg. CO 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1

(1 - 6) (1 - 6) (1 - 5) (1 - 5) (1 - 4) (1 - 4) (1 - 4) (0 - 2)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1

(1 - 6) (1 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 3) (0 - 2)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 1

(-1 - 9) (-1 - 8) (-1 - 8) (-1 - 7) (-1 - 7) (-1 - 6) (-1 - 5) (-1 - 3)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1

(0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 5) (0 - 4) (0 - 4) (0 - 3) (0 - 3) (0 - 2)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards** 

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Abt Associates Inc. E -47 December 2006
Table E-35. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0 - 1) (0 - 0.9) (0 - 0.9) (0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.4)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

Schwartz (2004) all 1 hr max. none 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1

(0.2 - 3.5) (0.2 - 3.3) (0.2 - 3.2) (0.1 - 2.9) (0.1 - 2.9) (0.1 - 2.7) (0.1 - 2.6) (0.1 - 2)

all 1 hr max. none 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9

(0.5 - 2.6) (0.5 - 2.5) (0.4 - 2.4) (0.4 - 2.2) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.4 - 2) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.3 - 1.5)

Huang et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

(0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.2) (0.1 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0

(0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0

(0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0

(0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0

(0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1) (0 - 0.1)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Abt Associates Inc. E -48 December 2006
Table E-36. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Houston, TX, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) all 1 hr max. none 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.1% - 1.3%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.8%)

all 1 hr max. none 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

Huang et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** 

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US

Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Abt Associates Inc. E -49 December 2006
Table E-37. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 31 30 27 22 20 19 16 9

(-74 - 135) (-72 - 131) (-66 - 120) (-52 - 95) (-49 - 90) (-46 - 83) (-38 - 69) (-22 - 41)

all 24 hr avg. none 67 64 59 47 44 41 34 20

(22 - 111) (22 - 107) (20 - 98) (16 - 78) (15 - 74) (14 - 68) (11 - 56) (7 - 33)

Huang et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 50 48 44 35 33 30 25 15

(0 - 98) (0 - 95) (0 - 88) (0 - 69) (0 - 65) (0 - 61) (0 - 50) (0 - 30)

all 24 hr avg. none 57 56 51 40 38 35 29 17

(22 - 93) (21 - 90) (19 - 83) (15 - 65) (15 - 62) (13 - 57) (11 - 47) (7 - 28)

all 24 hr avg. CO 32 31 28 22 21 20 16 10

(9 - 54) (9 - 53) (8 - 48) (7 - 38) (6 - 36) (6 - 33) (5 - 28) (3 - 16)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 28 27 25 19 18 17 14 8

(5 - 50) (5 - 49) (4 - 45) (3 - 35) (3 - 34) (3 - 31) (3 - 26) (1 - 15)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 34 33 30 24 23 21 17 10

(-13 - 81) (-13 - 78) (-12 - 72) (-9 - 57) (-9 - 54) (-8 - 50) (-7 - 41) (-4 - 25)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 24 23 21 17 16 15 12 7

(0 - 47) (0 - 46) (0 - 42) (0 - 33) (0 - 31) (0 - 29) (0 - 24) (0 - 14)

Linn et al. (2000)****** 30+ 24 hr avg. none 38 37 34 28 27 25 21 13

(-16 - 90) (-16 - 88) (-15 - 82) (-12 - 67) (-11 - 64) (-11 - 61) (-9 - 51) (-6 - 32)

Linn et al. (2000)****** 30+ 24 hr avg. none 28 27 26 23 22 21 19 14

(-36 - 90) (-35 - 89) (-34 - 85) (-29 - 73) (-28 - 71) (-27 - 69) (-24 - 61) (-18 - 45)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

** ***Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004) 

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)** ***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

0-day lag

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

******Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September air

quality data.

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

summer

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

spring

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 50 December 2006
Table E-38. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(-0.8 - 1.4) (-0.8 - 1.4) (-0.7 - 1.3) (-0.5 - 1) (-0.5 - 0.9) (-0.5 - 0.9) (-0.4 - 0.7) (-0.2 - 0.4)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2

(0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.4)

Huang et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 0.9) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.3)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2

(0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.3)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

(0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.1)

Linn et al. (2000)****** 30+ 24 hr avg. none 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(-0.2 - 1.1) (-0.2 - 1) (-0.2 - 1) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.4)

Linn et al. (2000)****** 30+ 24 hr avg. none 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

(-0.4 - 1.1) (-0.4 - 1.1) (-0.4 - 1) (-0.3 - 0.9) (-0.3 - 0.9) (-0.3 - 0.8) (-0.3 - 0.7) (-0.2 - 0.5)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

** ***Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Lag

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

summer

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

spring

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Health Effects* Study

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Ages

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Exposure

Metric

******Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September air

quality data.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004) 

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)** ***

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 51 December 2006
Table E-39. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.2% - 0.4%) (-0.2% - 0.3%) (-0.2% - 0.3%) (-0.2% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

Huang et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%

(0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.4%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2%

(0.3% - 1.3%) (0.3% - 1.2%) (0.3% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.2% - 1%) (-0.1% - 0.8%) (-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

Linn et al. (2000)****** 30+ 24 hr avg. none 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%

(-0.4% - 2.1%) (-0.4% - 2%) (-0.3% - 1.9%) (-0.3% - 1.5%) (-0.3% - 1.5%) (-0.2% - 1.4%) (-0.2% - 1.2%) (-0.1% - 0.7%)

Linn et al. (2000)****** 30+ 24 hr avg. none 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%

(-1% - 2.5%) (-1% - 2.4%) (-0.9% - 2.3%) (-0.8% - 2%) (-0.8% - 1.9%) (-0.7% - 1.9%) (-0.7% - 1.7%) (-0.5% - 1.2%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

** ***Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004) 

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)** ***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

0-day lag

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

******Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September air quality data.

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

summer

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

spring

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 52 December 2006
Table E-40. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 24 23 21 15 15 13 11 7

(-58 - 105) (-55 - 100) (-50 - 91) (-36 - 66) (-35 - 64) (-32 - 59) (-26 - 48) (-16 - 29)

all 24 hr avg. none 52 49 45 33 32 29 24 14

(17 - 86) (17 - 82) (15 - 74) (11 - 54) (11 - 53) (10 - 48) (8 - 39) (5 - 23)

Huang et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 38 37 33 24 24 22 18 11

(0 - 76) (0 - 73) (0 - 66) (0 - 48) (0 - 47) (0 - 43) (0 - 35) (0 - 21)

all 24 hr avg. none 45 43 39 28 27 25 20 12

(17 - 72) (16 - 69) (15 - 62) (11 - 45) (10 - 44) (10 - 41) (8 - 33) (5 - 20)

all 24 hr avg. CO 25 24 21 16 15 14 11 7

(7 - 42) (7 - 40) (6 - 37) (5 - 27) (4 - 26) (4 - 24) (3 - 19) (2 - 12)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 22 21 19 14 13 12 10 6

(4 - 39) (4 - 37) (3 - 34) (2 - 25) (2 - 24) (2 - 22) (2 - 18) (1 - 11)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 27 25 23 17 16 15 12 7

(-10 - 63) (-10 - 60) (-9 - 55) (-6 - 40) (-6 - 39) (-6 - 35) (-5 - 29) (-3 - 17)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 18 18 16 12 11 10 8 5

(0 - 37) (0 - 35) (0 - 32) (0 - 23) (0 - 22) (0 - 21) (0 - 17) (0 - 10)

Linn et al. (2000)****** 30+ 24 hr avg. none 34 33 31 24 24 23 19 12

(-15 - 82) (-14 - 80) (-13 - 74) (-10 - 59) (-10 - 58) (-10 - 55) (-8 - 46) (-5 - 28)

Linn et al. (2000)****** 30+ 24 hr avg. none 27 26 25 21 21 20 18 13

(-35 - 87) (-34 - 85) (-32 - 81) (-27 - 69) (-27 - 68) (-26 - 66) (-23 - 58) (-17 - 43)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

** ***Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

******Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September air

quality data.

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

summer

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004) 

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)** ***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E -53 December 2006
Table E-41. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

(-0.6 - 1.1) (-0.6 - 1.1) (-0.5 - 1) (-0.4 - 0.7) (-0.4 - 0.7) (-0.3 - 0.6) (-0.3 - 0.5) (-0.2 - 0.3)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

(0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0 - 0.2)

Huang et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

(0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

(-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.4) (-0.1 - 0.4) (-0.1 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

(0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.2) (0 - 0.1)

Linn et al. (2000)****** 30+ 24 hr avg. none 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

(-0.2 - 1) (-0.2 - 1) (-0.2 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.3)

Linn et al. (2000)****** 30+ 24 hr avg. none 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

(-0.4 - 1) (-0.4 - 1) (-0.4 - 1) (-0.3 - 0.8) (-0.3 - 0.8) (-0.3 - 0.8) (-0.3 - 0.7) (-0.2 - 0.5)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

** ***Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Ages

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Exposure

Metric

******Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September air

quality data.

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004) 

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)** ***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Health Effects* Study

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Lag

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards**

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

summer

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

spring

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Abt Associates Inc. E -54 December 2006
Table E-42. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Los Angeles, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% 0%

(-0.2% - 0.4%) (-0.2% - 0.4%) (-0.2% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.2%) (-0.1% - 0.2%) (-0.1% - 0.2%) (-0.1% - 0.2%) (-0.1% - 0.1%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

Huang et al. (2004)***** all 24 hr avg. none 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

(0% - 1%) (0% - 1%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.8%) (-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.5%) (-0.1% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

Linn et al. (2000)****** 30+ 24 hr avg. none 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%

(-0.3% - 1.9%) (-0.3% - 1.8%) (-0.3% - 1.7%) (-0.2% - 1.4%) (-0.2% - 1.3%) (-0.2% - 1.3%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.1% - 0.6%)

Linn et al. (2000)****** 30+ 24 hr avg. none 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(-0.9% - 2.4%) (-0.9% - 2.3%) (-0.9% - 2.2%) (-0.7% - 1.9%) (-0.7% - 1.9%) (-0.7% - 1.8%) (-0.6% - 1.6%) (-0.5% - 1.2%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

** ***Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles County.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

******Los Angeles is defined in this study as Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Orange Counties. The spring C-R function was run with April - June air quality data; the summer C-R function was run with July - September air quality data.

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

summer

Hospital admissions

(unscheduled),

pulmonary illness --

spring

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities

(2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004) 

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)** ***

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Huang et al. -- 19 US

Cities (2004)*****

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E -55 December 2006
Table E-43. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 17 15 15 13 13 12 11 9

(6 - 28) (5 - 25) (5 - 25) (4 - 22) (4 - 21) (4 - 20) (4 - 19) (3 - 15)

all 24 hr avg. none 59 54 54 47 46 42 41 33

(37 - 81) (34 - 75) (34 - 74) (30 - 65) (29 - 63) (27 - 58) (26 - 56) (21 - 46)

all 24 hr avg. TSP, SO2 59 54 53 47 46 42 41 33

(28 - 90) (26 - 82) (25 - 81) (22 - 71) (22 - 69) (20 - 64) (19 - 62) (16 - 50)

Huang et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 8

(1 - 28) (1 - 26) (1 - 26) (1 - 23) (1 - 22) (0 - 20) (0 - 20) (0 - 16)

all 24 hr avg. none 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 7

(5 - 19) (4 - 18) (4 - 18) (4 - 16) (4 - 15) (3 - 14) (3 - 13) (3 - 11)

all 24 hr avg. CO 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4

(2 - 11) (2 - 11) (2 - 10) (2 - 9) (2 - 9) (1 - 8) (1 - 8) (1 - 6)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3

(1 - 11) (1 - 10) (1 - 10) (1 - 8) (1 - 8) (1 - 8) (1 - 7) (1 - 6)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4

(-3 - 17) (-3 - 16) (-2 - 15) (-2 - 14) (-2 - 13) (-2 - 12) (-2 - 12) (-2 - 10)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3

(0 - 10) (0 - 9) (0 - 9) (0 - 8) (0 - 8) (0 - 7) (0 - 7) (0 - 6)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.

These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Health Effects* Study Ages

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Lag

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

distributed

lag

1-day lag

1-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 56 December 2006
Table E-44. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 1.1 1 1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6

(0.4 - 1.8) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1)

all 24 hr avg. none 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.1 3 2.8 2.7 2.2

(2.5 - 5.3) (2.3 - 4.9) (2.2 - 4.9) (2 - 4.3) (1.9 - 4.2) (1.8 - 3.8) (1.7 - 3.7) (1.4 - 3)

all 24 hr avg. TSP, SO2 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.1 3 2.8 2.7 2.2

(1.8 - 5.9) (1.7 - 5.4) (1.7 - 5.4) (1.5 - 4.7) (1.4 - 4.6) (1.3 - 4.2) (1.3 - 4.1) (1 - 3.3)

Huang et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5

(0 - 1.9) (0 - 1.7) (0 - 1.7) (0 - 1.5) (0 - 1.5) (0 - 1.3) (0 - 1.3) (0 - 1.1)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4

(0.3 - 1.3) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.3 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.7)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0.1 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

(0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

(-0.2 - 1.1) (-0.2 - 1) (-0.2 - 1) (-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.1 - 0.8) (-0.1 - 0.6)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2

(0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.4)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Lag

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards** 

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Health Effects* Study Ages

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.

These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

distributed

lag

1-day lag

1-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 57 December 2006
Table E-45. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.5% - 1%) (0.4% - 0.9%) (0.4% - 0.9%) (0.4% - 0.8%) (0.4% - 0.8%) (0.3% - 0.7%) (0.3% - 0.7%) (0.3% - 0.6%)

all 24 hr avg. TSP, SO2 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.3% - 1.1%) (0.3% - 1%) (0.3% - 1%) (0.3% - 0.9%) (0.3% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.6%)

Huang et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4%

(0% - 1.5%) (0% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.4%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.2%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.9%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.3% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

(-0.1% - 0.9%) (-0.1% - 0.8%) (-0.1% - 0.8%) (-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.7%) (-0.1% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.5%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.3%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Health Effects* Study Ages

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Lag

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

distributed

lag

1-day lag

1-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 58 December 2006
Table E-46. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 30 28 28 26 26 24 24 21

(10 - 50) (10 - 47) (9 - 47) (9 - 43) (9 - 42) (8 - 40) (8 - 40) (7 - 35)

all 24 hr avg. none 107 101 101 93 91 86 85 75

(67 - 146) (63 - 138) (63 - 137) (58 - 127) (57 - 124) (54 - 117) (53 - 116) (47 - 103)

all 24 hr avg. TSP, SO2 106 100 100 92 90 85 84 75

(51 - 161) (48 - 152) (48 - 151) (44 - 140) (43 - 137) (41 - 129) (40 - 128) (36 - 114)

Huang et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 26 25 25 23 23 21 21 19

(1 - 51) (1 - 48) (1 - 48) (1 - 44) (1 - 44) (1 - 41) (1 - 41) (1 - 36)

all 24 hr avg. none 22 21 21 19 19 18 17 15

(8 - 35) (8 - 33) (8 - 33) (7 - 30) (7 - 30) (7 - 28) (7 - 28) (6 - 25)

all 24 hr avg. CO 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 9

(4 - 21) (3 - 19) (3 - 19) (3 - 18) (3 - 18) (3 - 17) (3 - 16) (3 - 15)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7

(2 - 19) (2 - 18) (2 - 18) (2 - 17) (2 - 16) (2 - 15) (1 - 15) (1 - 14)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 9

(-5 - 31) (-5 - 29) (-5 - 29) (-4 - 27) (-4 - 26) (-4 - 25) (-4 - 24) (-4 - 22)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6

(0 - 18) (0 - 17) (0 - 17) (0 - 16) (0 - 15) (0 - 14) (0 - 14) (0 - 13)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

1-day lag

1-day lag

distributed

lag

Lag

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards** 

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Health Effects* Study Ages

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Abt Associates Inc. E -59 December 2006
Table E-47. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4

(0.7 - 3.3) (0.6 - 3.1) (0.6 - 3.1) (0.6 - 2.9) (0.6 - 2.8) (0.5 - 2.6) (0.5 - 2.6) (0.5 - 2.3)

all 24 hr avg. none 7 6.6 6.6 6.1 6 5.7 5.6 5

(4.4 - 9.6) (4.2 - 9.1) (4.2 - 9.1) (3.9 - 8.4) (3.8 - 8.2) (3.6 - 7.7) (3.5 - 7.6) (3.1 - 6.8)

all 24 hr avg. TSP, SO2 7 6.6 6.6 6.1 6 5.6 5.6 4.9

(3.3 - 10.6) (3.2 - 10) (3.1 - 10) (2.9 - 9.2) (2.8 - 9) (2.7 - 8.5) (2.7 - 8.4) (2.4 - 7.5)

Huang et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2

(0.1 - 3.4) (0.1 - 3.2) (0.1 - 3.2) (0.1 - 2.9) (0.1 - 2.9) (0.1 - 2.7) (0.1 - 2.7) (0.1 - 2.4)

all 24 hr avg. none 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1

(0.5 - 2.3) (0.5 - 2.2) (0.5 - 2.2) (0.5 - 2) (0.5 - 2) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.4 - 1.6)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6

(0.2 - 1.4) (0.2 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

(0.1 - 1.3) (0.1 - 1.2) (0.1 - 1.2) (0.1 - 1.1) (0.1 - 1.1) (0.1 - 1) (0.1 - 1) (0.1 - 0.9)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6

(-0.3 - 2) (-0.3 - 1.9) (-0.3 - 1.9) (-0.3 - 1.8) (-0.3 - 1.7) (-0.3 - 1.6) (-0.3 - 1.6) (-0.2 - 1.4)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4

(0 - 1.2) (0 - 1.1) (0 - 1.1) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (0 - 0.9) (0 - 0.9) (0 - 0.8)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

1-day lag

1-day lag

distributed

lag

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Health Effects* Study Ages

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Lag

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards**

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

Abt Associates Inc. E -60 December 2006
Table E-48. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Philadelphia, PA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

all 24 hr avg. none 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9%

(0.8% - 1.8%) (0.8% - 1.7%) (0.8% - 1.7%) (0.7% - 1.6%) (0.7% - 1.5%) (0.7% - 1.5%) (0.7% - 1.4%) (0.6% - 1.3%)

all 24 hr avg. TSP, SO2 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1% 0.9%

(0.6% - 2%) (0.6% - 1.9%) (0.6% - 1.9%) (0.5% - 1.7%) (0.5% - 1.7%) (0.5% - 1.6%) (0.5% - 1.6%) (0.4% - 1.4%)

Huang et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1%

(0.1% - 2.8%) (0.1% - 2.6%) (0.1% - 2.6%) (0.1% - 2.4%) (0.1% - 2.4%) (0.1% - 2.2%) (0.1% - 2.2%) (0% - 2%)

all 24 hr avg. none 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1% 1% 1% 0.9% 0.8%

(0.5% - 1.9%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.8%) (0.4% - 1.7%) (0.4% - 1.6%) (0.4% - 1.5%) (0.4% - 1.5%) (0.3% - 1.3%)

all 24 hr avg. CO 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

(0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%)

all 24 hr avg. NO2 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%)

all 24 hr avg. PM10 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%

(-0.3% - 1.7%) (-0.3% - 1.6%) (-0.3% - 1.6%) (-0.2% - 1.4%) (-0.2% - 1.4%) (-0.2% - 1.3%) (-0.2% - 1.3%) (-0.2% - 1.2%)

all 24 hr avg. SO2 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

(0% - 1%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.7%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

0-day lag

distributed

lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

0-day lag

distributed

lag

1-day lag

1-day lag

distributed

lag

Lag

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards** 

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Huang et al. -- 19

US Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Exposure

Metric

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Health Effects* Study Ages

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Moolgavkar et al.

(1995)

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Mortality,

cardiorespiratory

Abt Associates Inc. E -61 December 2006
Table E-49. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5

(-25 - 42) (-25 - 41) (-23 - 39) (-21 - 35) (-21 - 34) (-20 - 34) (-19 - 31) (-16 - 26)

all 24 hr avg. none 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 8

(4 - 21) (4 - 20) (4 - 19) (4 - 17) (3 - 17) (3 - 17) (3 - 15) (3 - 13)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

distributed

lag

Exposure

Metric

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average.

These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag

distributed

lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 62 December 2006
Table E-50. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4

(-2.1 - 3.4) (-2 - 3.3) (-1.9 - 3.1) (-1.8 - 2.9) (-1.7 - 2.8) (-1.7 - 2.7) (-1.5 - 2.5) (-1.3 - 2.2)

all 24 hr avg. none 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6

(0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1.1)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Study Ages

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Lag Exposure

Metric

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These

nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects*

Abt Associates Inc. E - 63 December 2006
Table E-51. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(-0.6% - 1%) (-0.6% - 1%) (-0.6% - 0.9%) (-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.5% - 0.8%) (-0.5% - 0.7%) (-0.4% - 0.6%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Study

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects*

Abt Associates Inc. E - 64 December 2006
Table E-52. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9

(-37 - 60) (-36 - 58) (-35 - 57) (-32 - 53) (-32 - 52) (-31 - 50) (-30 - 49) (-27 - 44)

all 24 hr avg. none 18 17 17 16 15 15 14 13

(6 - 30) (6 - 29) (6 - 28) (5 - 26) (5 - 26) (5 - 25) (5 - 24) (4 - 22)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Lag Exposure

Metric

Abt Associates Inc. E -65 December 2006
Table E-53. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7

(-3 - 4.9) (-2.9 - 4.8) (-2.8 - 4.6) (-2.6 - 4.3) (-2.6 - 4.2) (-2.5 - 4.1) (-2.4 - 4) (-2.2 - 3.6)

all 24 hr avg. none 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1

(0.5 - 2.4) (0.5 - 2.4) (0.5 - 2.3) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.4 - 2) (0.4 - 2) (0.4 - 1.8)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards**

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Abt Associates Inc. E -66 December 2006
Table E-54. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Sacramento, CA, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(-0.9% - 1.4%) (-0.8% - 1.4%) (-0.8% - 1.3%) (-0.8% - 1.3%) (-0.8% - 1.2%) (-0.7% - 1.2%) (-0.7% - 1.2%) (-0.6% - 1%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Exposure

Metric

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects*

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Study Ages Lag

Abt Associates Inc. E -67 December 2006
Table E-55. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1

(-4 - 9) (-4 - 8) (-4 - 8) (-3 - 6) (-3 - 6) (-2 - 5) (-2 - 5) (-1 - 3)

all 24 hr avg. none 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1

(1 - 4) (1 - 3) (1 - 3) (1 - 3) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 2) (0 - 1)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

distributed

lag

Exposure

Metric

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These

nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag

distributed

lag

Abt Associates Inc. E - 68 December 2006
Table E-56. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2

(-1.2 - 2.7) (-1.1 - 2.4) (-1 - 2.3) (-0.8 - 1.8) (-0.8 - 1.7) (-0.7 - 1.5) (-0.6 - 1.3) (-0.4 - 0.9)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2

(0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Study Ages

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Lag Exposure

Metric

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These

nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects*

Abt Associates Inc. E - 69 December 2006
Table E-57. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(-0.2% - 0.5%) (-0.2% - 0.4%) (-0.2% - 0.4%) (-0.1% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.2%) (-0.1% - 0.1%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Study

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects*

Abt Associates Inc. E - 70 December 2006
Table E-58. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3

(-9 - 20) (-9 - 19) (-8 - 18) (-8 - 16) (-7 - 15) (-7 - 15) (-6 - 14) (-5 - 12)

all 24 hr avg. none 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3

(2 - 8) (2 - 8) (1 - 7) (1 - 7) (1 - 6) (1 - 6) (1 - 6) (1 - 5)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Lag Exposure

Metric

Abt Associates Inc. E -71 December 2006
Table E-59. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9

(-2.6 - 5.6) (-2.5 - 5.4) (-2.4 - 5.2) (-2.2 - 4.7) (-2.1 - 4.5) (-2 - 4.3) (-1.8 - 4) (-1.5 - 3.3)

all 24 hr avg. none 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1 0.8

(0.5 - 2.3) (0.4 - 2.2) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.4 - 1.8) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.4)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards**

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Abt Associates Inc. E -72 December 2006
Table E-60. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: St. Louis, MO, April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

Bell et al. (2004) all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(-0.5% - 1%) (-0.4% - 0.9%) (-0.4% - 0.9%) (-0.4% - 0.8%) (-0.4% - 0.8%) (-0.3% - 0.7%) (-0.3% - 0.7%) (-0.3% - 0.6%)

all 24 hr avg. none 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Exposure

Metric

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Bell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Mortality, nonaccidental

Mortality, nonaccidental

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects*

distributed

lag

distributed

lag

Study Ages Lag

Abt Associates Inc. E -73 December 2006
Table E-61. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4

(2 - 12) (2 - 10) (2 - 11) (2 - 9) (2 - 9) (2 - 8) (2 - 8) (1 - 7)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

distributed

lag

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These

nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Mortality, nonaccidentalBell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Abt Associates Inc. E - 74 December 2006
Table E-62. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 1.2 1 1.1 1 1 0.8 0.9 0.7

(0.4 - 2.1) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.3 - 1.5) (0.2 - 1.2)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

distributed

lag

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These

nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Mortality, nonaccidentalBell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Abt Associates Inc. E - 75 December 2006
Table E-63. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

distributed

lag

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily

maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3

Standards**

Mortality, nonaccidentalBell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

Abt Associates Inc. E - 76 December 2006
Table E-64. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour Daily

Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 14 12 13 12 12 10 11 10

(5 - 23) (4 - 20) (4 - 21) (4 - 19) (4 - 19) (3 - 17) (4 - 18) (3 - 16)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

distributed

lag

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Mortality, nonaccidentalBell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study

Abt Associates Inc. E -77 December 2006
Table E-65. Estimated Incidence of Health Risks per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 2.4 2.1 2.2 2 2 1.8 1.9 1.7

(0.8 - 3.9) (0.7 - 3.5) (0.8 - 3.7) (0.7 - 3.4) (0.7 - 3.4) (0.6 - 3) (0.6 - 3.2) (0.6 - 2.9)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

distributed

lag

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth

daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Health Effects per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

and Alternative O3 Standards**

Mortality, nonaccidentalBell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study

Abt Associates Inc. E -78 December 2006
Table E-66. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Health Risks Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative 8-Hour

Daily Maximum Standards: Washington, D.C., April - September, Based on Adjusting 2002 O3 Concentrations

0.084/4*** 0.084/3 0.080/4 0.074/5 0.074/4 0.074/3 0.070/4 0.064/4

all 24 hr avg. none 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

(0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

*Health effects are associated with short-term exposures to O3.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

 This alternative 8-hr standard assumes an alternative rounding convention where the standard is specified to the third decimal place.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Ages Lag Exposure

Metric

distributed

lag

** *These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum

standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Percent of Total Incidence of Health Effects Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Mortality, nonaccidentalBell et al. -- 95 US

Cities (2004)

Other

Pollutants

in Model

Health Effects* Study

Abt Associates Inc. E -79 December 2006
Appendix F: Calculation of Risk Above Policy Relevant Background
Abt Associates Inc. F-1 December 2006

Appendix F: Calculation of Risk Above Policy Relevant Background

The estimated policy relevant background (PRB) ozone concentrations that we are using

are derived from GEOS-CHEM model predictions, and the measured ambient ozone

concentrations are sometimes lower than these PRB values. There is a question of how to best

treat this in our estimation of risk above PRB.

Let x0 denote the “as is” (ambient) O3 level, and y0 denote the corresponding baseline

incidence rate. The difference in health effects incidence, Δy = y0 - y, corresponding to a given

difference in ambient O3 levels, Δx = (x0 – x) > 0 can be calculated for log-linear concentrationresponse functions by:

Δy = y0[1 – e-βΔx] . (1)

If we let Δx = c – b, where c = the “as is” O3 concentration and b = the PRB O3 concentration, the

risk above background (Δy = y0 – yb = the difference in health effects incidence rates from the

as-is concentration incidence rate, y0, to the PRB concentration incidence rate, yb) can similarly

be calculated for log-linear concentration-response functions by equation 1 (where now Δy = y0

– yb and Δx = c – b).

Without loss of generality we can take the baseline incidence rate y0 to be 1. Then

Δy = [1 – e-βΔx]. (2)

Now we consider the implications of different ways of calculating risk above

background. To simplify this analysis, we use the approximation to equation (2), valid for β ≈ 0,

 Δy = β Δx = β (c – b) . (3)

Let ct be the measured concentrations (t=1 to N), bt the true background concentrations, and B

the estimated background concentration. Then the overall bias, θ, in the estimated background is 

given by

 

t

N t

bB

1  (4)

The true risk above background, R, is

      

t

tt

t t

  bcxyR )( (5)
Abt Associates Inc. F-2 December 2006

If the measured concentrations ct are always greater than the estimated background B, then

equation 3 (approximating equation 2) gives an estimated risk above background of

BcBcR

t

t

t

ˆ   t

)(    (6)

and the error E of this estimate is

   NbBBcbcRRE 

t

t

t

t

t

ˆ  tt   )()()(  (7)

However, the measured concentrations are sometimes smaller than the estimated background. In

these cases we cannot use equation 6 since it is not physically realizable. The error E of our risk

estimate will depend on how we calculate risk in this situation.

Method I. When ct < B we set the risk to zero in equation 6, with the rationale that, since

ambient concentrations cannot go below background, we lower the estimated background

concentrations in these cases down to the ambient concentration ct.

Then the estimate of risk above background is







Bct

t

t

 Bc )( (8)

where Bct

t  indicates the summation over all times t when ct > B.

The error E of this estimate is

    



Bct

t

Bct

t

t

tt

t t

  )()( NBcbcE  Bc )( (9)

since

   NBcbc 

t

t

t

  tt    )()(  (10)

 bc    NBcBc 

Bct

t

Bct

t

t

tt

t t

        

 

)()()(

(11)
Abt Associates Inc. F-3 December 2006

  

 

     

Bct

t

Bct

t

t

tt

t t

 bc  )()(  NBc   Bc )(

(12)

Method II. When ct < B we set the background for that day equal to ct and increase B on other

days to yield the original monthly average background concentration, or use some other method

of adjusting bt to use daily varying background concentrations Bt that are always less then the

measured concentrations and whose average is the original monthly average background

concentration B. This approach places more credence on the average estimated background than

on the estimated background values for individual hours. The error of this estimate of risk above

background is given by

   NbBNbBE 

t

t

t

   tt  ()(   )  (13)

Discussion

To recap, the error of the estimate of risk if we use method I is:







Bct

I t

t

NE  Bc )(

and the error of the estimate of risk if we use method II is:

II   NE  .

If we have overestimated background,   0 , and  0 EII . Since the second term in EI

,







Bct

t

t

 Bc )( , must be  0,  EE III

. If, as is likely, 





Bct

t

t

 Bc )( is smaller in absolute

value than  N , then 0  EE III.

If we have overestimated background, then, the first method would be preferable; if background

is underestimated, then the second method would be more accurate. Since we believe that we

have overestimated background in cases where the observed concentration is lower than the

estimates background obtained from the GEOS-CHEM model, we have applied the first method

in estimating risks in this draft report.
Appendix G: Explanation of How a Distributed Lag Model Can Be Used in the Risk

Assessment
Abt Associates Inc. G-1 December 2006

A linear concentration-response (C-R) function with a distributed lag has the following form:

t t t t ntn

y xxx x 0   2211    

Without loss of generality, we illustrate the application of a distributed lag model to a risk

assessment letting n=2 – i.e., with a model in which today’s mortality is a function of today’s

pollutant concentration, xt, yesterday’s pollutant concentration, xt-1, and the day before

yesterday’s pollutant concentration, xt-2. The model is:

t 0 t t  t2211

y  xxx .

Given this model, the following three equations hold:

t 0 t t  t2211

y  xxx

t1 t 110 t  t12

y  xxx

t t t t

y xxx 2     21120

Summing these three equations and collecting terms yields:

221

2

1

2

0

1

1

0

20

2

3  

 











 











 











 











   t t

i

t i

i

t i

i

t i

t

ti

i

y  x  x  x  xx .

Thus a change in the pollutant concentration on day t (i.e., a change in xt) results in a change in

the sum of mortality cases on days t, t+1, and t+2. In particular, if we let zt denote 





t 2

ti

i

y , then









2

i 0

i

t

t

x

z

 .

Thus, the change in the sum of mortality incidence on the same day, next day, and day after that

equals the sum of the coefficients for the pollutant concentration on the same day, the previous

day, and the day before that. Note that the application of a distributed lag model in a risk

assessment thus does not require any assumption that the decreases on all the days in the model

are the same. It does require that the distributed lag C-R function is linear. Because the loglinear functions used in the risk assessment are almost linear, the above is a good approximation.
Appendix H: Additional Results for Five Locations for the Current Standard and Two

Alternative Standards, Based on 2002, 2003, and 2004 Air Quality Data
Table H-1. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and

Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations*

2003 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 5 4 3

(-26 - 37) (-20 - 29) (-15 - 22) (-11 - 16)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 9 7 5

(4 - 20) (3 - 15) (2 - 12) (2 - 8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 64 55 43 31

(22 - 107) (18 - 91) (14 - 71) (10 - 52)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 445 403 332 261

(141 - 742) (128 - 674) (105 - 556) (83 - 438)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 168 152 125 98

(53 - 282) (48 - 256) (39 - 211) (31 - 166)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 36 18 11 4

(2 - 70) (1 - 35) (1 - 22) (0 - 8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 18 9 6 2

(6 - 30) (3 - 15) (2 - 9) (1 - 3)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 101 66 52 34

(9 - 191) (6 - 125) (5 - 98) (3 - 65)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 84 55 43 28

(26 - 141) (17 - 93) (14 - 73) (9 - 48)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 56 22 12 5

(-136 - 246) (-52 - 95) (-28 - 51) (-12 - 23)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 121 47 25 11

(41 - 201) (16 - 78) (8 - 42) (4 - 18)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 79 54 43 32

(27 - 132) (18 - 90) (15 - 72) (11 - 54)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,

4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g.,

0.084 ppm).

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with 2003 O3

Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and

Location Study Lag Alternative O3 Standards** Exposure

Metric

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Atlanta

Abt Associates Inc. H-1 December 2006
Table H-2. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations

that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on

Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations*

2003 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2

(-1.7 - 2.5) (-1.3 - 2) (-1 - 1.5) (-0.7 - 1.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3

(0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.2 1 0.8 0.6

(0.4 - 2) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 1)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 8.3 7.5 6.2 4.9

(2.6 - 13.8) (2.4 - 12.5) (2 - 10.3) (1.5 - 8.1)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 3.1 2.8 2.3 1.8

(1 - 5.3) (0.9 - 4.8) (0.7 - 3.9) (0.6 - 3.1)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1

(0.1 - 2) (0 - 1) (0 - 0.6) (0 - 0.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1

(0.2 - 0.9) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.1)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 3 1.9 1.5 1

(0.3 - 5.6) (0.2 - 3.7) (0.1 - 2.9) (0.1 - 1.9)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.5 1.6 1.3 0.8

(0.8 - 4.2) (0.5 - 2.7) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.3 - 1.4)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1

(-1.4 - 2.6) (-0.5 - 1) (-0.3 - 0.5) (-0.1 - 0.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1

(0.4 - 2.1) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.4) (0 - 0.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4

(0.3 - 1.5) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.6)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Atlanta

Chicago

Location Study

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,

4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g.,

0.084 ppm).

Lag Exposure

Metric

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with 2003 O3 Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just

Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. H-2 December 2006
Table H-3. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3

Concentrations*

2003 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(-0.6% - 0.8%) (-0.4% - 0.6%) (-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.2% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.1% 1.9% 1.6% 1.2%

(0.7% - 3.5%) (0.6% - 3.2%) (0.5% - 2.6%) (0.4% - 2.1%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%

(0.2% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.8%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0%

(0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.4%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4%

(0.1% - 2.1%) (0.1% - 1.4%) (0.1% - 1.1%) (0% - 0.7%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%

(0.3% - 1.6%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.1% 0% 0%

(-0.5% - 0.9%) (-0.2% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0%

(0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084

ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified

level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with

2003 O3 Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

Location Study Lag and Alternative O3 Standards** Exposure

Metric

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Atlanta

Abt Associates Inc. H-3 December 2006
Table H-4. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and

Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

2004 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 5 4 3

(-26 - 38) (-20 - 29) (-15 - 22) (-11 - 16)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 9 7 5

(4 - 20) (3 - 15) (2 - 12) (2 - 8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 49 33 23 14

(16 - 81) (11 - 55) (8 - 39) (5 - 24)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 394 314 249 183

(125 - 658) (99 - 525) (79 - 417) (58 - 307)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 148 118 93 69

(46 - 250) (37 - 199) (29 - 157) (21 - 116)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 35 22 16 8

(2 - 67) (1 - 42) (1 - 30) (0 - 15)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 11 8 4

(6 - 28) (4 - 18) (3 - 13) (1 - 6)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 93 70 57 42

(9 - 176) (6 - 132) (5 - 109) (4 - 80)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 78 58 48 35

(24 - 130) (18 - 98) (15 - 81) (11 - 59)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 62 31 20 9

(-149 - 271) (-74 - 135) (-49 - 90) (-22 - 41)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 133 67 44 20

(45 - 221) (22 - 111) (15 - 74) (7 - 33)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 60 43 33 24

(20 - 100) (15 - 72) (11 - 55) (8 - 39)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,

4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g.,

0.084 ppm).

Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with 2004 O3

Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and

Alternative O3 Standards**

Atlanta

Chicago

Location

New York

Houston

Abt Associates Inc. H-4 December 2006
Table H-5. Estimated Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations

that Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on

Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

2004 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2

(-1.8 - 2.6) (-1.3 - 1.9) (-1 - 1.5) (-0.7 - 1.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3

(0.3 - 1.4) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3

(0.3 - 1.5) (0.2 - 1) (0.1 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.4)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 7.3 5.8 4.6 3.4

(2.3 - 12.2) (1.9 - 9.8) (1.5 - 7.7) (1.1 - 5.7)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.8 2.2 1.7 1.3

(0.9 - 4.6) (0.7 - 3.7) (0.5 - 2.9) (0.4 - 2.2)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1 0.6 0.5 0.2

(0.1 - 2) (0 - 1.2) (0 - 0.9) (0 - 0.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4) (0 - 0.2)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.7 2 1.7 1.2

(0.3 - 5.2) (0.2 - 3.9) (0.2 - 3.2) (0.1 - 2.3)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.3 1.7 1.4 1

(0.7 - 3.8) (0.5 - 2.9) (0.4 - 2.4) (0.3 - 1.7)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1

(-1.6 - 2.8) (-0.8 - 1.4) (-0.5 - 0.9) (-0.2 - 0.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2

(0.5 - 2.3) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3

(0.2 - 1.1) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.4)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with 2004 O3 Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just

Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Atlanta

Location Study

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Lag Exposure

Metric

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,

4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g.,

0.084 ppm).

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Houston

Los Angeles

Abt Associates Inc. H-5 December 2006
Table H-6. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the

Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations*

2004 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(-0.6% - 0.8%) (-0.4% - 0.6%) (-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.2% - 0.3%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.9% 1.5% 1.2% 0.9%

(0.6% - 3.1%) (0.5% - 2.5%) (0.4% - 2%) (0.3% - 1.5%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.2% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0% - 0.7%) (0% - 0.5%) (0% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%) (0% - 0.1%)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5%

(0.1% - 1.9%) (0.1% - 1.5%) (0.1% - 1.2%) (0% - 0.9%)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%

(0.3% - 1.4%) (0.2% - 1.1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.1% - 0.7%)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

(-0.5% - 1%) (-0.3% - 0.5%) (-0.2% - 0.3%) (-0.1% - 0.2%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

(0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.1%)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

(0.1% - 0.3%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.2%) (0% - 0.1%)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,

4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level (e.g.,

0.084 ppm).

Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Percent of Total Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with 2004

O3 Concentrations and O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and

Alternative O3 Standards**

Atlanta

Chicago

Location

Abt Associates Inc. H-6 December 2006
Table H-7. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations*

2003 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

8 6 4 5

(-2 - 17) (-2 - 14) (-1 - 10) (-1 - 11)

8 6 4 5

(3 - 13) (2 - 10) (2 - 7) (2 - 8)

30 16 17 20

(-27 - 86) (-14 - 45) (-15 - 49) (-18 - 58)

49 26 28 33

(19 - 80) (10 - 41) (11 - 45) (13 - 53)

13 8 6 4

(-2 - 27) (-1 - 16) (-1 - 13) (-1 - 9)

13 8 6 4

(5 - 21) (3 - 13) (2 - 10) (2 - 7)

90 50 24 19

(1 - 178) (0 - 98) (0 - 48) (0 - 37)

104 57 28 22

(40 - 168) (22 - 93) (11 - 45) (8 - 35)

97 53 50 53

(31 - 161) (17 - 89) (16 - 83) (17 - 89)

71 39 36 39

(27 - 114) (15 - 63) (14 - 59) (15 - 63)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

19 U.S. Cities

New York

New York

19 U.S. Cities

Houston

Houston

19 U.S. Cities

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a

single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084

ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified

level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Risk Assessment Location Study Location

Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

O3 Standards**

Atlanta

Atlanta

19 U.S. Cities

Chicago

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Abt Associates Inc. H-7 December 2006
Table H-8. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that

Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on

Adjusting 2003 O3 Concentrations*

2003 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3

(-0.2 - 1.2) (-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.7)

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3

(0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.5)

0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4

(-0.5 - 1.6) (-0.3 - 0.8) (-0.3 - 0.9) (-0.3 - 1.1)

0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6

(0.4 - 1.5) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.2 - 1)

0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0 - 0.8) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.3)

0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0.1 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.2)

0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2

(0 - 1.9) (0 - 1) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4)

1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2

(0.4 - 1.8) (0.2 - 1) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6

(0.3 - 1.8) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 1)

0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4

(0.3 - 1.3) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.2 - 0.7)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

19 U.S. Cities

New York

New York

19 U.S. Cities

Houston

Houston

19 U.S. Cities

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a

single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084

ppm, 4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified

level (e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Risk Assessment Location Study Location

Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just

Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Atlanta

Atlanta

19 U.S. Cities

Chicago

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Abt Associates Inc. H-8 December 2006
Table H-9. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2003 O3

Concentrations*

2003 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5%

(-0.3% - 1.8%) (-0.2% - 1.4%) (-0.1% - 1%) (-0.2% - 1.1%)

0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5%

(0.3% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 0.8%)

0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%

(-0.5% - 1.7%) (-0.3% - 0.9%) (-0.3% - 1%) (-0.4% - 1.1%)

1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%

(0.4% - 1.6%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 1%)

0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%

(-0.1% - 1.3%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3%

(0% - 2.4%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.5%)

1.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3%

(0.5% - 2.3%) (0.3% - 1.3%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%

(0.3% - 1.8%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.9%) (0.2% - 1%)

0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

(0.3% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.2% - 0.7%)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

19 U.S. Cities

New York

New York

19 U.S. Cities

Houston

Houston

19 U.S. Cities

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a

single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,

4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level

(e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Risk Assessment Location Study Location

Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Atlanta

Atlanta

19 U.S. Cities

Chicago

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Abt Associates Inc. H-9 December 2006
Table H-10. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Two

Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

2004 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

8 6 5 3

(-3 - 18) (-2 - 14) (-1 - 10) (-1 - 7)

8 6 5 3

(3 - 13) (2 - 10) (2 - 8) (1 - 5)

23 16 11 7

(-21 - 66) (-14 - 45) (-10 - 31) (-6 - 19)

38 26 18 11

(14 - 61) (10 - 41) (7 - 29) (4 - 18)

16 8 6 3

(0 - 32) (-1 - 16) (-1 - 12) (0 - 6)

14 8 6 3

(5 - 22) (3 - 13) (2 - 9) (1 - 5)

15 50 33 15

(-2 - 31) (0 - 98) (0 - 65) (0 - 30)

14 57 38 17

(5 - 22) (22 - 93) (15 - 62) (7 - 28)

12 53 41 29

(-2 - 26) (17 - 89) (13 - 68) (9 - 49)

13 39 30 21

(5 - 20) (15 - 63) (11 - 48) (8 - 34)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number.

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

19 U.S. Cities

New York

New York

19 U.S. Cities

Houston

Houston

19 U.S. Cities

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a

single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,

4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level

(e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Risk Assessment Location Study Location

Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current and Alternative

O3 Standards**

Atlanta

Atlanta

19 U.S. Cities

Chicago

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

` H-10 December 2006
Table H-11. Estimated Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that

Just Meet the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on

Adjusting 2004 O3 Concentrations*

2004 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

(-0.2 - 1.2) (-0.1 - 0.9) (-0.1 - 0.7) (-0.1 - 0.5)

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

(0.2 - 0.9) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

(-0.4 - 1.2) (-0.3 - 0.8) (-0.2 - 0.6) (-0.1 - 0.4)

0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2

(0.3 - 1.1) (0.2 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.3)

1.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0 - 2.3) (0 - 0.5) (0 - 0.4) (0 - 0.2)

1 0.2 0.2 0.1

(0.4 - 1.6) (0.1 - 0.4) (0.1 - 0.3) (0 - 0.1)

0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2

(-0.1 - 1.5) (0 - 1) (0 - 0.7) (0 - 0.3)

0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2

(0.3 - 1.1) (0.2 - 1) (0.2 - 0.6) (0.1 - 0.3)

0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3

(0 - 0.8) (0.2 - 1) (0.1 - 0.8) (0.1 - 0.5)

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2

(0.1 - 0.6) (0.2 - 0.7) (0.1 - 0.5) (0.1 - 0.4)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Incidences per 100,000 relevant population are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

19 U.S. Cities

New York

New York

19 U.S. Cities

Houston

Houston

19 U.S. Cities

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a

single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,

4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level

(e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Risk Assessment Location Study Location

Cardiorespiratory Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just

Meet the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Atlanta

Atlanta

19 U.S. Cities

Chicago

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Abt Associates Inc. H-11 December 2006
Table H-12. Estimated Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Two Alternative 8-Hour Daily Maximum Standards: April - September, Based on Adjusting 2004 O3

Concentrations*

2004 Air Quality 0.084/4*** 0.074/4 0.064/4

0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%

(-0.3% - 1.8%) (-0.2% - 1.4%) (-0.2% - 1.1%) (-0.1% - 0.8%)

0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%

(0.3% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.6%)

0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

(-0.4% - 1.3%) (-0.3% - 0.9%) (-0.2% - 0.6%) (-0.1% - 0.4%)

0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2%

(0.3% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.3%)

0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%

(0% - 1.7%) (0% - 0.8%) (0% - 0.6%) (0% - 0.3%)

0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%

(0.3% - 1.2%) (0.1% - 0.6%) (0.1% - 0.4%) (0.1% - 0.2%)

0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

(-0.1% - 1.3%) (0% - 1.3%) (0% - 0.9%) (0% - 0.4%)

0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2%

(0.2% - 0.9%) (0.3% - 1.3%) (0.2% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%

(-0.1% - 1.2%) (0.2% - 1%) (0.1% - 0.8%) (0.1% - 0.5%)

0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%

(0.2% - 1%) (0.2% - 0.7%) (0.1% - 0.5%) (0.1% - 0.4%)

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

**Incidence was quantified down to estimated policy relevant background levels. Percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

19 U.S. Cities

New York

New York

19 U.S. Cities

Houston

Houston

19 U.S. Cities

*All results are for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. Results are based on single-pollutant single-city models or a

single-pollutant multi-city model estimated in Huang et al. (2004).

***These 8-hr average standards, denoted m/n, are characterized by a concentration of m ppm and an nth daily maximum. So, for example, the current standard is 0.084/4 -- 0.084 ppm,

4th daily maximum 8-hr average. These nth daily maximum standards require that the average of the 3 annual nth daily maxima over a 3-year period be at or below the specified level

(e.g., 0.084 ppm).

Risk Assessment Location Study Location

Percent of Total Incidence of Cardiorespiratory Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet

the Current and Alternative O3 Standards**

Atlanta

Atlanta

19 U.S. Cities

Chicago

Chicago

19 U.S. Cities

Abt Associates Inc. H-12 December 2006
Appendix I: Additional PRB Sensitivity Analyses
Table I-1. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2004*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 14 3

(-26 - 38) (-61 - 87) (-14 - 20)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 28 7

(4 - 20) (9 - 46) (2 - 11)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 7 11 4

(2 - 12) (4 - 19) (1 - 7)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 49 85 21

(16 - 81) (28 - 141) (7 - 36)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 394 493 298

(125 - 658) (157 - 822) (94 - 498)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 148 186 112

(46 - 250) (58 - 313) (35 - 189)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 27 45 14

(-17 - 69) (-29 - 118) (-9 - 37)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 29 9

(6 - 28) (10 - 48) (3 - 15)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 33 61 16

(-11 - 76) (-20 - 140) (-5 - 36)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 31 8

(6 - 28) (10 - 52) (3 - 13)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 128 159 99

(-21 - 274) (-26 - 339) (-16 - 211)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 70 86 54

(22 - 117) (27 - 145) (17 - 90)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 40 74 19

(-37 - 116) (-68 - 213) (-18 - 55)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 35 54 19

(2 - 67) (3 - 104) (1 - 37)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 27 10

(6 - 28) (9 - 44) (3 - 16)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 93 110 78

(9 - 176) (10 - 208) (7 - 148)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 78 92 65

(24 - 130) (29 - 154) (20 - 109)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 62 85 40

(-149 - 271) (-206 - 372) (-97 - 177)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 133 183 87

(45 - 221) (62 - 304) (29 - 145)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 60 105 30

(20 - 100) (35 - 174) (10 - 50)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 23 36 12

(8 - 38) (12 - 60) (4 - 21)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 82 129 45

(52 - 112) (81 - 176) (28 - 61)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 17 7

(-36 - 59) (-52 - 85) (-22 - 36)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 18 25 11

(6 - 29) (9 - 42) (4 - 18)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3 7 1

(-6 - 13) (-11 - 24) (-2 - 5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3 6 1

(1 - 5) (2 - 10) (0 - 2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 8 13 5

(3 - 14) (4 - 21) (2 - 8)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Lag Exposure

Metric

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Location Study

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. I-1 December 2006
Table I-2. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with "As Is" O3 Concentrations: April - September, 2002*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 17 6

(-37 - 54) (-72 - 103) (-25 - 35)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 33 11

(6 - 29) (11 - 55) (4 - 19)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 10 15 7

(3 - 17) (5 - 25) (2 - 12)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 69 104 42

(23 - 115) (35 - 173) (14 - 70)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 505 605 410

(161 - 840) (193 - 1005) (130 - 683)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 191 229 155

(60 - 321) (72 - 384) (49 - 260)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 61 81 43

(-38 - 157) (-51 - 210) (-27 - 112)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 38 52 27

(13 - 64) (17 - 86) (9 - 46)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 57 86 36

(-18 - 131) (-28 - 197) (-11 - 82)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 29 44 18

(10 - 48) (15 - 73) (6 - 30)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 181 212 150

(-30 - 385) (-35 - 451) (-25 - 320)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 99 116 82

(31 - 165) (36 - 194) (26 - 138)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 69 105 43

(-64 - 198) (-98 - 300) (-40 - 125)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 29 48 17

(2 - 57) (3 - 93) (1 - 32)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 14 24 8

(5 - 24) (8 - 39) (3 - 14)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 85 103 69

(8 - 161) (9 - 194) (6 - 132)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 71 86 58

(22 - 119) (27 - 144) (18 - 97)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 51 73 31

(-124 - 224) (-178 - 322) (-76 - 138)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 110 158 68

(37 - 184) (53 - 263) (23 - 113)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 105 156 69

(35 - 174) (52 - 258) (23 - 115)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 37 51 26

(12 - 62) (17 - 85) (9 - 43)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 132 181 91

(83 - 180) (114 - 247) (57 - 124)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 16 21 11

(-48 - 78) (-63 - 102) (-35 - 56)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 23 31 17

(8 - 39) (10 - 51) (6 - 28)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 10 4

(-11 - 23) (-17 - 36) (-6 - 14)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 9 3

(2 - 10) (3 - 15) (1 - 6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 15 20 11

(5 - 25) (7 - 33) (4 - 18)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St Louis

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington

Abt Associates Inc. I-2 December 2006
Table I-3. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with "As Is" O3

Concentrations: April - September, 2004*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4 0.9 0.2

(-1.8 - 2.6) (-4.1 - 5.9) (-1 - 1.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8 1.9 0.4

(0.3 - 1.4) (0.6 - 3.1) (0.1 - 0.7)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.0 1.6 0.6

(0.3 - 1.7) (0.5 - 2.7) (0.2 - 1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 1.6 0.4

(0.3 - 1.5) (0.5 - 2.6) (0.1 - 0.7)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 7.3 9.2 5.5

(2.3 - 12.2) (2.9 - 15.3) (1.8 - 9.3)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.8 3.5 2.1

(0.9 - 4.6) (1.1 - 5.8) (0.7 - 3.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.9 3.3 1.0

(-1.2 - 5) (-2.1 - 8.5) (-0.6 - 2.7)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.2 2.1 0.6

(0.4 - 2) (0.7 - 3.4) (0.2 - 1.1)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.6 2.9 0.8

(-0.5 - 3.7) (-0.9 - 6.8) (-0.2 - 1.8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8 1.5 0.4

(0.3 - 1.4) (0.5 - 2.5) (0.1 - 0.6)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 6.2 7.7 4.8

(-1 - 13.3) (-1.3 - 16.5) (-0.8 - 10.2)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 3.4 4.2 2.6

(1.1 - 5.7) (1.3 - 7) (0.8 - 4.4)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 2.0 3.6 0.9

(-1.8 - 5.6) (-3.3 - 10.3) (-0.9 - 2.7)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.0 1.6 0.6

(0.1 - 2) (0.1 - 3.1) (0 - 1.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 0.8 0.3

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.3 - 1.3) (0.1 - 0.5)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.7 3.2 2.3

(0.3 - 5.2) (0.3 - 6.1) (0.2 - 4.3)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.3 2.7 1.9

(0.7 - 3.8) (0.8 - 4.5) (0.6 - 3.2)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 0.9 0.4

(-1.6 - 2.8) (-2.2 - 3.9) (-1 - 1.9)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.4 1.9 0.9

(0.5 - 2.3) (0.6 - 3.2) (0.3 - 1.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 1.2 0.3

(0.2 - 1.1) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.1 - 0.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.5 2.4 0.8

(0.5 - 2.5) (0.8 - 4) (0.3 - 1.4)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 5.4 8.5 2.9

(3.4 - 7.4) (5.3 - 11.6) (1.8 - 4)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.0 1.4 0.6

(-3 - 4.8) (-4.3 - 6.9) (-1.8 - 3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.4 2.1 0.9

(0.5 - 2.4) (0.7 - 3.4) (0.3 - 1.5)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.0 1.9 0.4

(-1.7 - 3.6) (-3.2 - 6.9) (-0.6 - 1.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 1.7 0.3

(0.3 - 1.5) (0.6 - 2.8) (0.1 - 0.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.5 2.2 0.8

(0.5 - 2.4) (0.7 - 3.7) (0.3 - 1.4)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Lag Exposure

Metric

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Location Study

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Above:**

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. I-3 December 2006
Table I-4. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with "As Is" O3

Concentrations: April - September, 2002*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 1.1 0.4

(-2.5 - 3.6) (-4.9 - 6.9) (-1.7 - 2.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.2 2.2 0.8

(0.4 - 1.9) (0.7 - 3.7) (0.3 - 1.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.5 2.2 1.0

(0.5 - 2.5) (0.7 - 3.6) (0.3 - 1.7)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.3 1.9 0.8

(0.4 - 2.1) (0.7 - 3.2) (0.3 - 1.3)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 9.4 11.2 7.6

(3 - 15.6) (3.6 - 18.7) (2.4 - 12.7)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 3.6 4.3 2.9

(1.1 - 6) (1.3 - 7.2) (0.9 - 4.8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 4.3 5.8 3.1

(-2.7 - 11.3) (-3.7 - 15.1) (-2 - 8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2.8 3.7 2.0

(0.9 - 4.6) (1.2 - 6.2) (0.7 - 3.3)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2.8 4.2 1.7

(-0.9 - 6.3) (-1.4 - 9.6) (-0.6 - 4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.4 2.1 0.9

(0.5 - 2.3) (0.7 - 3.5) (0.3 - 1.5)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 8.8 10.3 7.3

(-1.4 - 18.7) (-1.7 - 21.9) (-1.2 - 15.5)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 4.8 5.6 4.0

(1.5 - 8) (1.8 - 9.4) (1.2 - 6.7)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 3.4 5.1 2.1

(-3.1 - 9.6) (-4.7 - 14.6) (-2 - 6)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 1.4 0.5

(0.1 - 1.7) (0.1 - 2.7) (0 - 0.9)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4 0.7 0.2

(0.1 - 0.7) (0.2 - 1.2) (0.1 - 0.4)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.5 3.0 2.0

(0.2 - 4.7) (0.3 - 5.7) (0.2 - 3.9)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.1 2.5 1.7

(0.7 - 3.5) (0.8 - 4.2) (0.5 - 2.9)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 0.8 0.3

(-1.3 - 2.4) (-1.9 - 3.4) (-0.8 - 1.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.2 1.7 0.7

(0.4 - 1.9) (0.6 - 2.8) (0.2 - 1.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.2 1.7 0.8

(0.4 - 2) (0.6 - 2.9) (0.3 - 1.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2.4 3.4 1.7

(0.8 - 4.1) (1.1 - 5.6) (0.6 - 2.8)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 8.7 11.9 6.0

(5.5 - 11.9) (7.5 - 16.2) (3.8 - 8.2)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.3 1.7 0.9

(-3.9 - 6.4) (-5.2 - 8.4) (-2.8 - 4.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.9 2.5 1.4

(0.6 - 3.2) (0.8 - 4.2) (0.5 - 2.3)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.9 2.8 1.1

(-3.1 - 6.7) (-4.8 - 10.3) (-1.8 - 3.9)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.7 2.5 1.0

(0.6 - 2.8) (0.8 - 4.2) (0.3 - 1.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2.6 3.5 1.9

(0.9 - 4.4) (1.2 - 5.8) (0.6 - 3.2)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St Louis

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Above:**

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Exposure

Metric

Bell et al. (2004)

Location Study Lag

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. I-4 December 2006
Table I-5. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2004*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 5 12 2

(-20 - 29) (-53 - 76) (-9 - 14)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 24 4

(3 - 15) (8 - 40) (1 - 7)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 10 3

(2 - 9) (3 - 16) (1 - 5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 30 67 12

(10 - 50) (23 - 112) (4 - 19)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 310 412 220

(98 - 519) (131 - 689) (70 - 368)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 117 155 83

(37 - 197) (49 - 262) (26 - 139)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 20 36 9

(-12 - 51) (-22 - 93) (-5 - 23)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 23 6

(4 - 21) (8 - 38) (2 - 9)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 23 49 10

(-8 - 54) (-16 - 113) (-3 - 23)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 25 5

(4 - 20) (8 - 42) (2 - 8)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 105 138 78

(-17 - 226) (-22 - 294) (-13 - 167)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 57 75 42

(18 - 96) (23 - 126) (13 - 71)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 29 60 12

(-26 - 83) (-55 - 172) (-11 - 35)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 22 39 9

(1 - 42) (2 - 75) (1 - 18)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 11 19 5

(4 - 18) (6 - 32) (2 - 8)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 70 86 56

(6 - 133) (8 - 163) (5 - 106)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 58 72 47

(18 - 98) (23 - 121) (15 - 79)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 32 52 13

(-77 - 141) (-126 - 228) (-31 - 57)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 69 112 28

(23 - 115) (38 - 187) (9 - 46)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 43 76 15

(15 - 72) (25 - 126) (5 - 24)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 29 7

(6 - 28) (10 - 48) (2 - 12)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 61 103 26

(38 - 83) (64 - 140) (17 - 36)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 8 13 4

(-25 - 41) (-40 - 65) (-13 - 21)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 20 6

(4 - 20) (7 - 32) (2 - 11)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3 5 1

(-4 - 9) (-9 - 20) (-1 - 3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2 5 1

(1 - 4) (2 - 8) (0 - 1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 7 10 3

(2 - 12) (3 - 17) (1 - 5)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Lag Exposure

Metric

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Location Study

Abt Associates Inc. I-5 December 2006
Table I-6. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet the Current

Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2002*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 7 15 4

(-30 - 43) (-63 - 90) (-18 - 26)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 14 29 8

(5 - 23) (10 - 48) (3 - 14)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 13 6

(3 - 15) (4 - 21) (2 - 9)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 55 88 31

(18 - 91) (29 - 146) (10 - 51)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 427 526 333

(136 - 712) (167 - 876) (106 - 556)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 161 199 126

(51 - 271) (62 - 334) (39 - 212)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 49 69 33

(-31 - 128) (-44 - 180) (-21 - 87)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 31 44 21

(10 - 52) (15 - 73) (7 - 35)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 46 73 27

(-15 - 106) (-24 - 169) (-9 - 63)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 24 38 14

(8 - 39) (13 - 62) (5 - 23)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 158 189 128

(-26 - 336) (-31 - 403) (-21 - 273)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 86 103 70

(27 - 144) (32 - 173) (22 - 117)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 56 89 33

(-52 - 162) (-83 - 256) (-31 - 95)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 18 34 8

(1 - 34) (2 - 65) (1 - 16)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 17 4

(3 - 15) (6 - 28) (1 - 7)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 63 80 48

(6 - 119) (7 - 151) (4 - 92)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 53 66 40

(16 - 88) (21 - 112) (13 - 68)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 24 44 9

(-58 - 105) (-106 - 192) (-22 - 41)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 52 95 20

(17 - 86) (32 - 157) (7 - 33)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 84 121 45

(28 - 139) (41 - 202) (15 - 74)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 30 43 19

(10 - 50) (14 - 71) (6 - 32)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 107 152 68

(67 - 146) (96 - 208) (43 - 94)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 17 8

(-37 - 60) (-51 - 83) (-24 - 40)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 18 25 12

(6 - 30) (8 - 41) (4 - 20)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 5 9 3

(-9 - 20) (-15 - 31) (-5 - 11)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 5 8 3

(2 - 8) (3 - 13) (1 - 4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 14 17 9

(5 - 23) (6 - 28) (3 - 14)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St Louis

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Abt Associates Inc. I-6 December 2006
Table I-7. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative

Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2004*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 4 11 1

(-15 - 22) (-47 - 68) (-6 - 9)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 7 22 3

(2 - 12) (7 - 36) (1 - 5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 4 8 2

(1 - 7) (3 - 14) (1 - 3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 23 55 6

(8 - 39) (19 - 92) (2 - 10)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 249 347 157

(79 - 417) (110 - 580) (50 - 263)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 93 131 59

(29 - 157) (41 - 220) (18 - 99)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 14 30 6

(-9 - 37) (-19 - 78) (-3 - 14)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 19 3

(3 - 15) (6 - 32) (1 - 6)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 17 40 6

(-6 - 40) (-13 - 93) (-2 - 13)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 21 3

(3 - 15) (7 - 34) (1 - 5)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 87 117 59

(-14 - 186) (-19 - 251) (-9 - 126)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 47 64 32

(15 - 79) (20 - 107) (10 - 54)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 21 49 7

(-20 - 62) (-45 - 142) (-6 - 20)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 16 32 6

(1 - 30) (2 - 62) (0 - 11)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 8 16 3

(3 - 13) (5 - 26) (1 - 5)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 57 73 44

(5 - 109) (7 - 139) (4 - 84)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 48 61 37

(15 - 81) (19 - 103) (12 - 62)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 20 41 6

(-49 - 90) (-98 - 179) (-15 - 27)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 44 88 13

(15 - 74) (29 - 146) (4 - 22)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 33 64 9

(11 - 55) (21 - 106) (3 - 15)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 13 25 5

(4 - 21) (8 - 41) (2 - 8)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 46 88 17

(29 - 63) (55 - 120) (11 - 24)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 7 11 3

(-21 - 34) (-35 - 57) (-9 - 16)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 10 17 5

(3 - 17) (6 - 28) (2 - 8)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2 4 0

(-3 - 6) (-7 - 16) (-1 - 1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1 4 0

(0 - 2) (1 - 6) (0 - 0)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 9 2

(2 - 9) (3 - 14) (1 - 3)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. I-7 December 2006
Table I-8. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative

Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 13 3

(-24 - 35) (-57 - 81) (-13 - 19)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 11 26 6

(4 - 19) (9 - 43) (2 - 10)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 7 12 5

(3 - 12) (4 - 19) (2 - 8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 44 76 22

(15 - 74) (26 - 127) (7 - 37)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 361 460 269

(115 - 603) (146 - 767) (85 - 450)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 136 174 102

(43 - 229) (54 - 292) (32 - 171)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 42 62 27

(-26 - 109) (-39 - 160) (-17 - 71)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 27 39 17

(9 - 44) (13 - 65) (6 - 29)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 38 64 20

(-12 - 87) (-21 - 146) (-7 - 47)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 19 33 10

(6 - 32) (11 - 54) (3 - 17)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 134 166 105

(-22 - 287) (-27 - 354) (-17 - 224)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 73 90 57

(23 - 123) (28 - 152) (18 - 96)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 46 77 25

(-42 - 132) (-72 - 223) (-23 - 72)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 13 27 5

(1 - 25) (2 - 53) (0 - 10)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 13 2

(2 - 10) (4 - 22) (1 - 4)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 51 67 37

(5 - 97) (6 - 128) (3 - 71)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 43 56 31

(13 - 72) (18 - 95) (10 - 52)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 15 33 4

(-35 - 64) (-80 - 145) (-10 - 18)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 32 71 9

(11 - 53) (24 - 118) (3 - 15)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 70 107 34

(23 - 116) (36 - 177) (12 - 57)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 26 38 16

(9 - 42) (13 - 63) (5 - 26)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 91 136 55

(57 - 124) (85 - 185) (35 - 76)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 10 15 7

(-32 - 52) (-46 - 74) (-20 - 33)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 15 22 10

(5 - 26) (7 - 37) (3 - 16)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 4 7 2

(-7 - 15) (-12 - 27) (-4 - 8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 4 7 2

(1 - 6) (2 - 11) (1 - 3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 12 15 7

(4 - 19) (5 - 25) (2 - 12)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St Louis

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington

Abt Associates Inc. I-8 December 2006
Table I-9. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative

Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2004*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3 10 1

(-11 - 16) (-41 - 59) (-4 - 5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 5 19 2

(2 - 8) (6 - 31) (1 - 3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3 7 1

(1 - 6) (2 - 11) (0 - 2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 14 43 2

(5 - 24) (14 - 72) (1 - 4)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 183 281 98

(58 - 307) (89 - 470) (31 - 164)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 69 105 37

(21 - 116) (33 - 178) (11 - 62)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 10 24 3

(-6 - 26) (-15 - 63) (-2 - 8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 15 2

(2 - 11) (5 - 26) (1 - 3)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 11 32 2

(-4 - 27) (-10 - 73) (-1 - 5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 16 1

(2 - 10) (5 - 27) (0 - 2)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 66 97 40

(-11 - 142) (-16 - 207) (-6 - 85)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 36 52 21

(11 - 61) (16 - 88) (7 - 36)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 14 38 3

(-13 - 41) (-35 - 111) (-3 - 8)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 8 21 2

(0 - 15) (1 - 41) (0 - 3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 4 10 1

(1 - 6) (3 - 17) (0 - 1)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 42 56 30

(4 - 80) (5 - 106) (3 - 56)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 35 47 25

(11 - 59) (15 - 79) (8 - 42)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 27 1

(-22 - 41) (-64 - 117) (-3 - 6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 20 57 3

(7 - 33) (19 - 96) (1 - 5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 24 51 4

(8 - 39) (17 - 84) (1 - 7)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 20 3

(3 - 15) (7 - 34) (1 - 4)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 33 73 10

(21 - 46) (46 - 100) (6 - 13)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 5 10 2

(-16 - 26) (-29 - 48) (-6 - 10)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 8 14 3

(3 - 13) (5 - 24) (1 - 5)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1 3 0

(-1 - 3) (-5 - 11) (0 - 0)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1 3 0

(0 - 1) (1 - 5) (0 - 0)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 4 7 1

(1 - 7) (2 - 12) (0 - 2)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. I-9 December 2006
Table I-10. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Concentrations that Just Meet An Alternative

Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum: April - September, 2002*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 4 12 2

(-19 - 27) (-50 - 72) (-9 - 13)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 23 4

(3 - 14) (8 - 38) (1 - 7)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 6 10 3

(2 - 10) (3 - 17) (1 - 6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 34 65 15

(11 - 57) (22 - 108) (5 - 25)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 294 393 206

(93 - 493) (125 - 656) (65 - 345)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 111 148 77

(35 - 187) (46 - 249) (24 - 130)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 35 54 21

(-22 - 91) (-34 - 141) (-13 - 55)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 22 34 13

(7 - 37) (12 - 57) (4 - 22)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 29 54 14

(-9 - 67) (-17 - 124) (-4 - 32)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 15 28 7

(5 - 25) (9 - 46) (2 - 12)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 111 143 83

(-18 - 239) (-23 - 305) (-13 - 177)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 61 78 45

(19 - 102) (24 - 130) (14 - 75)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 36 66 17

(-33 - 103) (-61 - 189) (-16 - 49)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 7 17 2

(0 - 13) (1 - 34) (0 - 4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3 9 1

(1 - 5) (3 - 14) (0 - 2)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 36 51 24

(3 - 69) (5 - 97) (2 - 46)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 30 43 20

(9 - 51) (13 - 72) (6 - 34)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 7 21 1

(-16 - 29) (-50 - 91) (-2 - 4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 14 45 2

(5 - 23) (15 - 74) (1 - 3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 57 87 23

(19 - 95) (29 - 145) (8 - 38)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 21 33 12

(7 - 35) (11 - 56) (4 - 20)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 75 119 43

(47 - 103) (75 - 163) (27 - 59)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 9 13 5

(-27 - 44) (-40 - 66) (-16 - 26)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 13 20 8

(4 - 22) (7 - 33) (3 - 13)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3 6 1

(-5 - 12) (-10 - 22) (-2 - 5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3 5 1

(1 - 5) (2 - 9) (0 - 2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 10 13 6

(3 - 16) (5 - 22) (2 - 9)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality Associated with O3 Above:**

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St Louis

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington

Abt Associates Inc. I-10 December 2006
Table I-11. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations

that Just Meet the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2004*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.8 0.1

(-1.3 - 1.9) (-3.5 - 5.1) (-0.6 - 0.9)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 1.6 0.3

(0.2 - 1) (0.5 - 2.7) (0.1 - 0.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8 1.4 0.4

(0.3 - 1.4) (0.5 - 2.3) (0.1 - 0.7)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 1.3 0.2

(0.2 - 0.9) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.1 - 0.4)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 5.8 7.7 4.1

(1.8 - 9.7) (2.4 - 12.8) (1.3 - 6.8)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.2 2.9 1.5

(0.7 - 3.7) (0.9 - 4.9) (0.5 - 2.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.4 2.6 0.6

(-0.9 - 3.7) (-1.6 - 6.7) (-0.4 - 1.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 1.6 0.4

(0.3 - 1.5) (0.5 - 2.7) (0.1 - 0.7)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.1 2.4 0.5

(-0.4 - 2.6) (-0.8 - 5.5) (-0.2 - 1.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 1.2 0.2

(0.2 - 1) (0.4 - 2) (0.1 - 0.4)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 5.1 6.7 3.8

(-0.8 - 10.9) (-1.1 - 14.3) (-0.6 - 8.1)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.8 3.6 2.1

(0.9 - 4.7) (1.1 - 6.1) (0.6 - 3.5)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 1.4 2.9 0.6

(-1.3 - 4) (-2.7 - 8.4) (-0.5 - 1.7)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 1.1 0.3

(0 - 1.2) (0.1 - 2.2) (0 - 0.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.6 0.1

(0.1 - 0.5) (0.2 - 0.9) (0 - 0.2)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.1 2.5 1.6

(0.2 - 3.9) (0.2 - 4.8) (0.2 - 3.1)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.7 2.1 1.4

(0.5 - 2.9) (0.7 - 3.6) (0.4 - 2.3)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.5 0.1

(-0.8 - 1.5) (-1.3 - 2.4) (-0.3 - 0.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 1.2 0.3

(0.2 - 1.2) (0.4 - 2) (0.1 - 0.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 0.8 0.2

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.3 - 1.4) (0.1 - 0.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.1 1.9 0.5

(0.4 - 1.9) (0.6 - 3.2) (0.2 - 0.8)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 4.0 6.8 1.7

(2.5 - 5.5) (4.2 - 9.2) (1.1 - 2.4)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 1.1 0.4

(-2.1 - 3.4) (-3.3 - 5.4) (-1.1 - 1.8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.0 1.6 0.5

(0.3 - 1.7) (0.5 - 2.7) (0.2 - 0.9)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 1.6 0.2

(-1.2 - 2.7) (-2.6 - 5.7) (-0.3 - 0.8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 1.4 0.2

(0.2 - 1.1) (0.5 - 2.3) (0.1 - 0.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.2 1.8 0.5

(0.4 - 2.1) (0.6 - 3) (0.2 - 0.9)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Above:**

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Lag Exposure

Metric

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Location Study

Abt Associates Inc. I-11 December 2006
Table I-12. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations

that Just Meet the Current Standard (0.084 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum): April - September, 2002*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 1.0 0.3

(-2 - 2.9) (-4.3 - 6.1) (-1.2 - 1.8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 1.9 0.6

(0.3 - 1.6) (0.7 - 3.2) (0.2 - 0.9)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.3 1.9 0.8

(0.4 - 2.1) (0.6 - 3.1) (0.3 - 1.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.0 1.6 0.6

(0.3 - 1.7) (0.5 - 2.7) (0.2 - 0.9)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 7.9 9.8 6.2

(2.5 - 13.2) (3.1 - 16.3) (2 - 10.4)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 3.0 3.7 2.3

(0.9 - 5) (1.2 - 6.2) (0.7 - 3.9)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3.5 5.0 2.4

(-2.2 - 9.2) (-3.1 - 12.9) (-1.5 - 6.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2.2 3.2 1.5

(0.8 - 3.7) (1.1 - 5.2) (0.5 - 2.5)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2.2 3.6 1.3

(-0.7 - 5.2) (-1.2 - 8.2) (-0.4 - 3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.1 1.8 0.7

(0.4 - 1.9) (0.6 - 3) (0.2 - 1.1)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 7.7 9.2 6.2

(-1.3 - 16.3) (-1.5 - 19.5) (-1 - 13.2)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 4.2 5.0 3.4

(1.3 - 7) (1.6 - 8.4) (1.1 - 5.7)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 2.7 4.3 1.6

(-2.5 - 7.8) (-4 - 12.4) (-1.5 - 4.6)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 1.0 0.2

(0 - 1) (0.1 - 1.9) (0 - 0.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.5 0.1

(0.1 - 0.4) (0.2 - 0.8) (0 - 0.2)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.8 2.3 1.4

(0.2 - 3.5) (0.2 - 4.4) (0.1 - 2.7)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.5 2.0 1.2

(0.5 - 2.6) (0.6 - 3.3) (0.4 - 2)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.5 0.1

(-0.6 - 1.1) (-1.1 - 2) (-0.2 - 0.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 1.0 0.2

(0.2 - 0.9) (0.3 - 1.7) (0.1 - 0.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 1.4 0.5

(0.3 - 1.6) (0.5 - 2.3) (0.2 - 0.8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2.0 2.8 1.3

(0.7 - 3.3) (0.9 - 4.7) (0.4 - 2.1)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 7.0 10.0 4.5

(4.4 - 9.6) (6.3 - 13.7) (2.8 - 6.2)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.0 1.4 0.7

(-3 - 4.9) (-4.2 - 6.8) (-2 - 3.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.5 2.0 1.0

(0.5 - 2.4) (0.7 - 3.4) (0.3 - 1.6)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.6 2.5 0.9

(-2.6 - 5.6) (-4.2 - 9) (-1.4 - 3.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.4 2.2 0.8

(0.5 - 2.3) (0.7 - 3.7) (0.3 - 1.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2.4 3.0 1.5

(0.8 - 3.9) (1 - 4.9) (0.5 - 2.5)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Exposure

Metric

Bell et al. (2004)

Location Study Lag

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Above:**

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St Louis

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. I-12 December 2006
Table I-13. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations

that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum : April - September, 2004*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2 0.7 0.1

(-1 - 1.5) (-3.2 - 4.6) (-0.4 - 0.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 1.5 0.2

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.5 - 2.4) (0.1 - 0.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 1.2 0.3

(0.2 - 1.1) (0.4 - 2) (0.1 - 0.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4 1.0 0.1

(0.1 - 0.7) (0.3 - 1.7) (0 - 0.2)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 4.6 6.5 2.9

(1.5 - 7.7) (2 - 10.8) (0.9 - 4.9)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.7 2.4 1.1

(0.5 - 2.9) (0.8 - 4.1) (0.3 - 1.8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.0 2.1 0.4

(-0.6 - 2.7) (-1.3 - 5.6) (-0.2 - 1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 1.4 0.3

(0.2 - 1.1) (0.5 - 2.3) (0.1 - 0.4)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8 2.0 0.3

(-0.3 - 2) (-0.6 - 4.5) (-0.1 - 0.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4 1.0 0.1

(0.1 - 0.7) (0.3 - 1.7) (0 - 0.2)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 4.2 5.7 2.8

(-0.7 - 9) (-0.9 - 12.2) (-0.5 - 6.1)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.3 3.1 1.5

(0.7 - 3.8) (1 - 5.2) (0.5 - 2.6)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 1.0 2.4 0.3

(-1 - 3) (-2.2 - 6.9) (-0.3 - 1)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 0.9 0.2

(0 - 0.9) (0.1 - 1.8) (0 - 0.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2 0.5 0.1

(0.1 - 0.4) (0.2 - 0.8) (0 - 0.1)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.7 2.2 1.3

(0.2 - 3.2) (0.2 - 4.1) (0.1 - 2.5)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.4 1.8 1.1

(0.4 - 2.4) (0.6 - 3) (0.3 - 1.8)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2 0.4 0.1

(-0.5 - 0.9) (-1 - 1.9) (-0.2 - 0.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 0.9 0.1

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.3 - 1.5) (0 - 0.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4 0.7 0.1

(0.1 - 0.6) (0.2 - 1.2) (0 - 0.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8 1.6 0.3

(0.3 - 1.4) (0.5 - 2.7) (0.1 - 0.5)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 3.0 5.8 1.1

(1.9 - 4.2) (3.6 - 7.9) (0.7 - 1.6)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 0.9 0.3

(-1.7 - 2.8) (-2.8 - 4.6) (-0.8 - 1.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8 1.4 0.4

(0.3 - 1.4) (0.5 - 2.3) (0.1 - 0.6)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 1.2 0.1

(-0.8 - 1.7) (-2.1 - 4.5) (-0.1 - 0.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4 1.1 0.1

(0.1 - 0.7) (0.4 - 1.8) (0 - 0.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.0 1.5 0.4

(0.3 - 1.6) (0.5 - 2.5) (0.1 - 0.6)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Above:**

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. I-13 December 2006
Table I-14. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations

that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.074 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum : April - September, 2002*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4 0.9 0.2

(-1.6 - 2.4) (-3.8 - 5.5) (-0.9 - 1.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8 1.7 0.4

(0.3 - 1.3) (0.6 - 2.9) (0.1 - 0.7)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.1 1.7 0.7

(0.4 - 1.8) (0.6 - 2.8) (0.2 - 1.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8 1.4 0.4

(0.3 - 1.4) (0.5 - 2.4) (0.1 - 0.7)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 6.7 8.6 5.0

(2.1 - 11.2) (2.7 - 14.3) (1.6 - 8.4)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.5 3.2 1.9

(0.8 - 4.3) (1 - 5.4) (0.6 - 3.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 3.0 4.4 1.9

(-1.9 - 7.8) (-2.8 - 11.5) (-1.2 - 5.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.9 2.8 1.2

(0.6 - 3.2) (0.9 - 4.7) (0.4 - 2.1)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.8 3.1 1.0

(-0.6 - 4.2) (-1 - 7.1) (-0.3 - 2.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 1.6 0.5

(0.3 - 1.5) (0.5 - 2.6) (0.2 - 0.8)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 6.5 8.0 5.1

(-1.1 - 13.9) (-1.3 - 17.2) (-0.8 - 10.9)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 3.5 4.4 2.8

(1.1 - 6) (1.4 - 7.4) (0.9 - 4.7)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 2.2 3.8 1.2

(-2.1 - 6.4) (-3.5 - 10.8) (-1.1 - 3.5)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4 0.8 0.1

(0 - 0.7) (0 - 1.5) (0 - 0.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2 0.4 0.1

(0.1 - 0.3) (0.1 - 0.7) (0 - 0.1)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.5 2.0 1.1

(0.1 - 2.9) (0.2 - 3.8) (0.1 - 2.1)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.3 1.7 0.9

(0.4 - 2.1) (0.5 - 2.8) (0.3 - 1.5)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2 0.3 0.0

(-0.4 - 0.7) (-0.8 - 1.5) (-0.1 - 0.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.7 0.1

(0.1 - 0.6) (0.3 - 1.2) (0 - 0.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8 1.2 0.4

(0.3 - 1.3) (0.4 - 2) (0.1 - 0.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.7 2.5 1.0

(0.6 - 2.8) (0.8 - 4.2) (0.3 - 1.7)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 6.0 8.9 3.6

(3.8 - 8.2) (5.6 - 12.2) (2.3 - 5)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 1.2 0.5

(-2.6 - 4.2) (-3.7 - 6.1) (-1.6 - 2.7)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.3 1.8 0.8

(0.4 - 2.1) (0.6 - 3) (0.3 - 1.3)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.2 2.1 0.6

(-2.1 - 4.5) (-3.6 - 7.7) (-1 - 2.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.1 1.9 0.5

(0.4 - 1.8) (0.6 - 3.2) (0.2 - 0.9)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2.0 2.7 1.2

(0.7 - 3.4) (0.9 - 4.4) (0.4 - 2)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St Louis

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Above:**

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Exposure

Metric

Bell et al. (2004)

Location Study Lag

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. I-14 December 2006
Table I-15. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations

that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum : April - September, 2004*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2 0.6 0.1

(-0.7 - 1.1) (-2.8 - 4) (-0.2 - 0.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 1.3 0.1

(0.1 - 0.6) (0.4 - 2.1) (0 - 0.2)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 1.0 0.2

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.1 - 0.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.8 0.0

(0.1 - 0.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0 - 0.1)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 3.4 5.2 1.8

(1.1 - 5.7) (1.7 - 8.7) (0.6 - 3)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.3 2.0 0.7

(0.4 - 2.2) (0.6 - 3.3) (0.2 - 1.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 1.7 0.2

(-0.5 - 1.9) (-1.1 - 4.6) (-0.1 - 0.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.5 1.1 0.1

(0.2 - 0.8) (0.4 - 1.8) (0 - 0.2)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 1.5 0.1

(-0.2 - 1.3) (-0.5 - 3.5) (0 - 0.3)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.8 0.1

(0.1 - 0.5) (0.3 - 1.3) (0 - 0.1)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 3.2 4.7 1.9

(-0.5 - 6.9) (-0.8 - 10.1) (-0.3 - 4.1)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.7 2.5 1.0

(0.5 - 2.9) (0.8 - 4.3) (0.3 - 1.8)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 1.9 0.1

(-0.6 - 2) (-1.7 - 5.4) (-0.1 - 0.4)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2 0.6 0.0

(0 - 0.4) (0 - 1.2) (0 - 0.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1 0.3 0.0

(0 - 0.2) (0.1 - 0.5) (0 - 0)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.2 1.6 0.9

(0.1 - 2.3) (0.2 - 3.1) (0.1 - 1.7)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.0 1.4 0.7

(0.3 - 1.7) (0.4 - 2.3) (0.2 - 1.2)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1 0.3 0.0

(-0.2 - 0.4) (-0.7 - 1.2) (0 - 0.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2 0.6 0.0

(0.1 - 0.4) (0.2 - 1) (0 - 0)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.6 0.0

(0.1 - 0.4) (0.2 - 0.9) (0 - 0.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 1.3 0.2

(0.2 - 1) (0.5 - 2.2) (0.1 - 0.3)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 2.2 4.8 0.6

(1.4 - 3) (3 - 6.6) (0.4 - 0.9)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.4 0.8 0.2

(-1.3 - 2.2) (-2.4 - 3.9) (-0.5 - 0.8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 1.2 0.2

(0.2 - 1.1) (0.4 - 1.9) (0.1 - 0.4)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2 0.9 0.0

(-0.4 - 0.9) (-1.5 - 3.3) (0 - 0.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2 0.8 0.0

(0.1 - 0.4) (0.3 - 1.3) (0 - 0)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 1.3 0.2

(0.2 - 1.2) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.1 - 0.4)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Above:**

Atlanta

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Location Study Lag Exposure

Metric

Boston Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Chicago

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Cleveland

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Detroit

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Houston

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Los Angeles Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

New York Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Philadelphia

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Washington Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Sacramento Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

St Louis Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. I-15 December 2006
Table I-16. Sensitivity Analysis: Impact of Alternative Estimates of Policy Relevant Background (PRB) on Estimated

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population Associated with O3 Concentrations

that Just Meet An Alternative Standard of 0.064 ppm, 4th Daily Maximum : April - September, 2002*

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Minus

5 ppb***

Estimates of PRB

Concentrations Plus 5

ppb

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.3 0.8 0.1

(-1.3 - 1.8) (-3.4 - 4.9) (-0.6 - 0.9)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 1.5 0.3

(0.2 - 1) (0.5 - 2.6) (0.1 - 0.5)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 1.5 0.5

(0.3 - 1.5) (0.5 - 2.4) (0.2 - 0.8)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 1.2 0.3

(0.2 - 1.1) (0.4 - 2) (0.1 - 0.5)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 5.5 7.3 3.8

(1.7 - 9.2) (2.3 - 12.2) (1.2 - 6.4)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.1 2.8 1.4

(0.6 - 3.5) (0.9 - 4.6) (0.5 - 2.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 2.5 3.9 1.5

(-1.6 - 6.5) (-2.4 - 10.1) (-0.9 - 3.9)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.6 2.5 1.0

(0.5 - 2.7) (0.8 - 4.1) (0.3 - 1.6)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.4 2.6 0.7

(-0.5 - 3.3) (-0.8 - 6) (-0.2 - 1.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 1.3 0.3

(0.2 - 1.2) (0.4 - 2.2) (0.1 - 0.6)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 5.4 6.9 4.0

(-0.9 - 11.6) (-1.1 - 14.8) (-0.7 - 8.6)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 2.9 3.8 2.2

(0.9 - 4.9) (1.2 - 6.3) (0.7 - 3.7)

Ito (2003) 0-day lag 24 hr avg. 1.7 3.2 0.8

(-1.6 - 5) (-3 - 9.2) (-0.8 - 2.4)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.2 0.5 0.1

(0 - 0.4) (0 - 1) (0 - 0.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1 0.3 0.0

(0 - 0.2) (0.1 - 0.4) (0 - 0)

Schwartz (2004) 0-day lag 1 hr max. 1.1 1.5 0.7

(0.1 - 2) (0.1 - 2.9) (0.1 - 1.4)

0-day lag 1 hr max. 0.9 1.3 0.6

(0.3 - 1.5) (0.4 - 2.1) (0.2 - 1)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1 0.2 0.0

(-0.2 - 0.3) (-0.5 - 1) (0 - 0)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.1 0.5 0.0

(0 - 0.2) (0.2 - 0.8) (0 - 0)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.6 1.0 0.3

(0.2 - 1.1) (0.3 - 1.6) (0.1 - 0.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.4 2.2 0.8

(0.5 - 2.3) (0.7 - 3.7) (0.3 - 1.3)

1-day lag 24 hr avg. 5.0 7.8 2.8

(3.1 - 6.8) (4.9 - 10.7) (1.8 - 3.9)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.7 1.1 0.4

(-2.2 - 3.6) (-3.3 - 5.4) (-1.3 - 2.1)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.1 1.6 0.6

(0.4 - 1.8) (0.5 - 2.7) (0.2 - 1)

Bell et al. (2004) distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.9 1.8 0.4

(-1.5 - 3.3) (-3 - 6.4) (-0.6 - 1.4)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 0.8 1.6 0.3

(0.3 - 1.4) (0.5 - 2.6) (0.1 - 0.6)

distributed lag 24 hr avg. 1.7 2.3 1.0

(0.6 - 2.9) (0.8 - 3.9) (0.3 - 1.6)

*All results are for mortality (among all ages) associated with short-term exposures to O3. All results are based on single-pollutant models.

***In Atlanta, 10 ppb were subtracted from estimated PRB concentrations; in all other locations, 5 ppb were subtracted.

Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95% confidence or credible intervals based on statistical uncertainty surrounding the O3 coefficient.

New York

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Moolgavkar et al. (1995)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Washington

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

**Incidences are rounded to the nearest whole number; incidences per 100,000 relevant population and percents are rounded to the nearest tenth.

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Sacramento

St Louis

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Incidence of Non-Accidental Mortality per 100,000 Relevant Population

Associated with O3 Above:**

Detroit

Houston

Bell et al. (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004) Atlanta

Boston

Chicago

Cleveland

Exposure

Metric

Bell et al. (2004)

Location Study Lag

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Bell et al. -- 95 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz -- 14 US Cities (2004)

Schwartz (2004)

Abt Associates Inc. I-16 December 2006
United States 

Environmental Protection Agency 

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards 

Health and Environmental Impacts Division 

Research Triangle Park, NC 

Publication 

Postal information in this section where appropriate.