Technical Analysis for 

Hawaii’s Regional Haze 

FIP Report – Task 16: 

On-Road Mobile 

Emissions Inventory 

Work Assignment: 5-12

Contract No: EP-D-07-102

Task No: 16

Version: 1

Date Due

March 23, 2012

Prepared for

US EPA, Region 9

Prepared by

ICF International

620 Folsom St

Suite 200

San Francisco, CA 94107
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

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Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

UNC-EMAQ (5-12)-012.v1 iii March 23, 2012

Table of Contents

1. Introduction .........................................................................................................................1

2. Data Sources .......................................................................................................................1

2.1. Identified Methods ....................................................................................................... 1

2.2. Identified Data Needs .................................................................................................. 2

2.3. Data Collection Approach............................................................................................ 5

3. Modeling Methods...............................................................................................................6

3.1. Data Preprocessing ..................................................................................................... 6

3.1.1. Source Population............................................................................................ 6

3.1.2. Annual VMT Estimates..................................................................................... 7

3.2. MOVES Analysis ......................................................................................................... 8

3.3. Spatial Allocation of Emissions .................................................................................... 8

4. Analysis of Results ...........................................................................................................10

4.1. Emissions.................................................................................................................. 10

4.2. Comparison to Prior Estimates .................................................................................. 13

4.3. Spatial Allocation of Emissions .................................................................................. 14

5. References.........................................................................................................................16

6. Appendix A: Additional Data Preprocessing Details ......................................................18

6.1. Vehicle Age Distribution by Vehicle Type................................................................... 18

6.2. Speed Distribution ..................................................................................................... 18

6.3. Source Population ..................................................................................................... 18

6.4. VMT Fraction by Vehicle Source and Road Type ...................................................... 21

6.5. Meteorological Data................................................................................................... 21

6.6. Monthly, Daily, and Hourly VMT Fractions................................................................. 21

6.7. Ramp Fraction........................................................................................................... 21

6.8. Fuel Supply and Fuel Formulation ............................................................................. 21
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Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions InventoryIntroduction

UNC-EMAQ (5-12)-012.v1 1 March 23, 2012

1. Introduction

ICF International, though the University of North Carolina, is assisting the US EPA, Region 9 Air 

Division in developing Federal Implementation Plans (FIPs) to establish air quality programs for 

Arizona and Hawaii pursuant to Clean Air Act Section 169A and Regional Haze Rule (RHR), 

40CFR 51.308. Several tasks are addressed under this work assignment. The present report 

deals solely with an update to the on-road, mobile source emission inventory for the State of 

Hawaii under Task 16. 

This update is intended to account for recent changes in economic projections as a result of the 

recent global recession not considered in prior analysis. It also accounts for changes in the 

inventory resulting from a migration from EPA’s MOBILE6 model to the current MOVES model

for on-road emissions.

The technical portion of this task consisted of three basic components: 

Assessment of existing data and methods; 

Collection and assembly of remaining data needed for analysis; 

Performing emissions analysis with the MOVES model to produce an inventory of NOx, 

SO2, total PM10 and PM2.5, CO, and NMHC for years 2005, 2008, and 2018 at the county 

level for each of the five Hawaiian counties and the State as a whole; and 

Assessing the fraction of emissions within each of Hawaii’s counties influencing the two 

Class 1 Visibility Areas: Hawaii Volcanoes and Haleakala National Parks. 

This report documents each of these phases.

2. Data Sources

2.1. Identified Methods

ICF received a variety of data through EPA provided by from the State of Hawaii prepared for

their most recent analysis.1 The documentation and data included:

1. A comparison of the two existing inventories performed with various methods and 

purposes for calendar year 2005, one for AirSHED and one prepared for the NEI. All 

data was provided by the Hawaii Department of Health (DOH). 

2. Various emails provided to EPA by DOH documenting current model inputs

3. Various MOBILE6 model input data files for the previously conducted 2005 and 2018

inventories. However, only input data was provided. No control or master files were 

included. 

 

1

"On-road Emissions Estimates for the Hawaiian Islands, Technical Memorandum", May 25, 2007 Appendix A to 

"Final Emission Inventory Report: Data Population of Air System for Hawaii’s Emissions Data (AirSHED), April 12, 

2010, Environ.
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

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Based on these items, we agree with the prior assessments that the AirSHED estimates are 

superior to NEI estimates for our purposes since they take into account Hawaii’s local 

information more completely. However, neither set is complete for 2018. Also, the use of the 

MOVES model had notably not yet been included in the AirSHED estimates. 

Based on the information provided and available data, ICF determined an approach to perform 

this analysis with the MOVES model and assessed the remaining data needs for a limited 

update of the current AirSHED inventory for 2002, 2005, and 2018.

Since there is no direct EPA guidance on using MOVES to perform FIP analyses, we 

determined to rely principally on EPA’s Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for 

Emission Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity2

to guide this analysis. Although that document is technically designed to “provide guidance on 

the use of MOVES for inventory development in State Implementation Plans (SIPs) and for 

regional emissions analysis for transportation conformity determinations”, it is the most 

appropriate guidance to follow for this analysis. Other documents, including EPA’s Using 

MOVES for Estimating State and Local Inventories of On-Road Greenhouse Gas Emissions and 

Energy Consumption3, the MOVES User Guide4, and other miscellaneous sources, including 

prior ICF reports and proposals for relevant projects were also consulted. 

2.2. Identified Data Needs

We followed the guidance discussed above for the methodology to employ the MOVES model 

at a county level for each of the four counties in Hawaii with significant on-road activity for three 

years: 2005, 2008, 2018. We first produced an inventory of all the needed inputs for an analysis 

at this scale, then reviewed all the information provided and assessed its suitability for the 

present MOVES analysis to identify remaining data needs. 

In addition to the technical assessment, a guiding concern for this analysis was available time. 

Given the highly compressed schedule under which this project was performed, a guiding 

principal of the analysis was to rely on currently provided information as much as possible, while 

simultaneously exploring the availability of other data from various Federal, State and Local 

sources. However, budget and time severely limited the amount of new data collection allowed. 

Exhibit 1 lists the final set of data whose needs were identified and provides an overview of the 

method employed in the analysis. “Input Level” refers to one of two principal inputs for the 

MOVES model, the “main” module or the “CDM” (County Data Manager). Details are provided 

below. 

 

2

EPA-420-B-09-042, December 2009.

3

EPA-420-D-12-001, January 2012 (Public Draft)

4

EPA’s Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) User Guide for MOVES2010a (EPA-420-B-10-036 August 2010)
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

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Exhibit 1. Identified Approach and Data Needs for Update of HI On-Road Inventory

Input

Default Data 

in MOVES?

Input 

Level

Typical Data 

Source General Approach

Meteorological 

Data Yes CDM

MOVES defaults, 

old MOBILE6 

inputs, or raw data

We implemented a local average daily temperature range, 

similar to the seasonal analysis in the SIP/Conf guidance. 

This uses a local average temperature profile for a period 

(monthly for a given year) based on average minimum and 

maximum temperatures). For 2005 we used historical data 

from the prior MOBILE analysis (min/max Temperature and 

Absolute Humidity) provided by EPA along with official EPA 

converter tools. For 2008, we used the MOVES input files 

provided by EPA (hourly T and RH). For 2018, we used the 

MOVES default average monthly temperature and humidity 

data for each county, which reflect the 30-year climate 

normals for each county. 

Source (Vehicle) 

Type Population

National data 

available, but 

local data 

preferred CDM

Local registration 

data – heavy truck 

data is often 

difficult to obtain

MOVES needs population data for all 6 HPMS vehicle types 

by county as a basic input. Tools do not exist for interim 

values from existing data. 

ICF collected 2005 and 2008 total vehicle registration values 

by county from the State. Other years were also collected. 

2018 was estimated by projecting 2011 values (the last year 

available). 

Age Distribution

National data 

available, but 

local data 

preferred CDM

Local registration 

data – MOVES 

national data for 

heavy vehicles if 

no better local 

source

No local inputs of registration distribution or appropriate 

MOBILE datasets were available. We relied on EPA’s 

national default age distribution for MOVES. 

Vehicle Type 

VMT

National data 

available, but 

local data 

preferred CDM

Travel model or 

HPMS

This is the key metric for more current values than the prior 

analysis. 

We collected 2005, 2008, and other year HPMS VMT values 

and road type fractions. These were manually converted to 

MOVES required formats. We estimated 2018 values by 

projecting 2010 values (the most current year available) 

based on EIA annualized projections of national average 

VMT growth by vehicle categories. 

Month, Day, 

Hour VMT 

Fractions

Yes, but local 

data 

preferred CDM

MOVES, HPMS, 

count stations

Data collection was attempted but no relevant values were 

obtained. MOVES defaults were used in all cases. 

Average Speed 

Distribution

Yes, but local 

data 

preferred CDM Travel model

Unable to collect prior data files (WRAP average speeds by 

roadway type) from State or identify additional data (e.g., 

TDFM outputs). Instead relied on MOVES national default 

values. 
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Input

Default Data 

in MOVES?

Input 

Level

Typical Data 

Source General Approach

Road Type 

Distribution No CDM Travel model

Manually computed from HPMS values collected, alongside 

“Vehicle Type VMT” for 2005 and 2008. 2008 values 

assumed also for 2018.

Ramp Fraction Yes CDM Travel model Used national defaults (8%). 

Fuel Supply/ 

Formulation Yes CDM

MOVES or 

MOBILE6

Relied on MOVES defaults for all years except 2008, where 

the model linearly interpolates between available data. For 

2008 used HI DOH-provided gasoline formulations and 

default diesel formulations. 

I/M Program Yes CDM

MOVES or 

MOBILE6 Not used. No I/M programs in HI. 

Domain/Scale

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable for 

project dependent 

on analysis type. Analyzed at County scale. 

Calculation 

Type

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable 

dependent on 

project goals. Used inventory mode.

Time 

Aggregation

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable 

dependent on 

project goals. 

Analyzed at hourly resolution for both weekday and 

weekend. Results aggregated to annual basis. 

Calendar Year

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable 

dependent on 

project goals. Modeled three years (individually): 2005, 2008, and 2018

Evaluation 

Month

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable 

dependent on 

project goals. All months included.

Type of Day

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable 

dependent on 

project goals. Weekday and weekend values included. 

Evaluation Hour

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable 

dependent on 

project goals. All hours analyzed.

Geographic 

Bounds

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable 

dependent on 

project goals. Analysis done for each county individually

Vehicle Type

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable 

dependent on 

project goals. 

All vehicle/fuel type combinations included. Default gasoline, 

diesel, and CNG fractions assumed for all years and 

counties.

Road Type

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable 

dependent on 

project goals. 

All 5 road types used, with distributions based on available 

data (see above)
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Input

Default Data 

in MOVES?

Input 

Level

Typical Data 

Source General Approach

Pollutants and 

Processes

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable 

dependent on 

project goals. 

All processes (and supporting pollutants) relevant for 

NMHC, NOx, SO2, total PM10, PM2.5, and CO included.

Strategies

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable 

dependent on 

project goals. 

No changes to AVFT, retrofit, or rate-of-progress 

parameters. Only the default MOVES parameters included 

for all analysis years. This is in accordance with SIP/Conf 

rules, which do not allow assumed future changes in 

alternate fuel or engine technologies unless those alternate 

technologies are required by regulation or law.

Activity

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable 

dependent on 

project goals. Only emissions considered 

Emissions Detail

N/A. User 

selection 

only. Main

User selectable 

dependent on 

project goals. Emissions calculated at annual level (as noted above.

2.3. Data Collection Approach

To collect the information identified above, we first followed EPA guidance and contacted Scott 

Takamoto at Hawaii’s Department of Health (DOH). Mr. Takamoto provided a collection of input 

files for previous modeling efforts including input files for the MOBILE6 model and some 

MOVES input files. Key files which were collected and used include meteorological data for 

2005 and 2008, 2008 VMT fraction by road type, and custom fuel-formation information for the 

gasoline blend used in Hawaii in 2008. Mr. Takamoto also provided ICF with vehicle population 

values based on registration data by county for each of year from 1997 to 2010. 

ICF also contacted FHWA’s Office of Highway Policy Information and the U.S. Energy 

Information Administration (EIA), especially to collect values related to VMT and activity 

projections to 2018. From the Hawaii DOT, Mr. Goro Sulijoadikusumo also provided ADVMT 

values for 1993 through 2007, Vehicle Type VMT estimates, and a summary of registered 

vehicles in Hawaii for calendar year 2008. Additionally, Mr. Yibo Hsu of the HI DOT, provided 

HPMS Reports for years 2006 through 2010, used to determine the ADVMT per county used in 

determining the VMT fractions by road and source type.

Finally, John Maples and Victoria Zaretskaya at the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) 

were contacted to identify available data on predicted vehicle population and VMT growth 

factors for the State of Hawaii. However, no such materials are available. Further we were 

cautioned against using regional (Census Division 9) data, as any results would be skewed to 
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

UNC-EMAQ (5-12)-012.v1 6 March 23, 2012

California values. Ultimately, national-scale projections of vehicle population and VMT growth 

rates were obtained from the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook.5

3. Modeling Methods 

With the above data and methods, ICF modeled four of the five counties in Hawaii:

 Hawaii County (FIPS 15001)

 Honolulu County (15003)

 Kauai County (15007)

 Maui County (15009)

using the MOVES model for the years 2005, 2008, and 2018, in a total of 12 MOVES countylevel simulations. Kalawao County (15005) was not modeled as the DOH indicated that an 

insignificant amount of VMT occurs there, given the 2010 population of 90 people.

3.1. Data Preprocessing

A number of pre-processing steps were conducted in order to prepare raw inputs collected for 

use in the MOVES modeling application. The critical pieces are discussed below, while 

Appendix A provides additional detail on preparing the inputs outlined in Exhibit 1. 

3.1.1. Source Population

MOVES requires the vehicle population for each county and vehicle type as a principal input. 

There are no defaults for this data. 

ICF obtained detailed vehicle registration data for years 1990 to 2011 and used the countyspecific Hawaii registration data from 2005 and 2008 to populate the source populations in 

MOVES for each of these two years. Details in allocating these values are presented in 

Appendix A. 

Data were extrapolated to 2018 using 2011 vehicle registration data and national growth rate 

values for car stock and light truck stock (0.76% and 1.64%, respectively) from the 2011 Annual 

Energy Outlook (AEO) database. First, vehicle registration numbers in 2011 were allocated to 

MOVES source type values using the approach described above. Then, annual average growth 

rate projections for cars and light truck from the year 2011 to 2018 were calculated using AEO 

data (Baseline Case, Transportation Sector, using the table “Light-duty vehicle stock by 

technology type” Table). Vehicle population estimates used in the MOVES modeling are in

Exhibit 12 in Appendix A. 

 

5

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/tools.htm
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

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3.1.2. Annual VMT Estimates

Annual VMT by HMPS vehicle class is the second critical element required for MOVES 

modeling. No defaults are provided. 

Estimates for each of six vehicle types were estimated using Highway Performance Monitoring 

System (HMPS) reports for 2005, 2008, and 2010 (for extrapolation to 2018). The HPMS 

reports vehicle mileage by island for various road types. These reports include the total VMT by 

all vehicle types, which are not separated by vehicle type. However, the reported travel activity 

by vehicle type and functional class for Hawaii in 2008 was reported in a separate HPMS 

document. By coupling the total VMT by road type and the fractional VMT by vehicle type, we

estimated total VMT by vehicle type for MOVES input. Note that, with this method, all years 

used the same values for fraction of VMT by vehicle type, since we were only able to identify 

data for 2008.

VMT estimates by vehicle type for 2018 were determined as follows. We applied VMT growth 

rates to HPMS values for 2010 uniformly for all counties. Annualized VMT growth rates were 

calculated for light-duty vehicles, commercial light trucks, and freight trucks using AEO data, 

equaling 1.59%, 2.49%, and 2.45%, respectively. These values were calculated using the online 

AEO data viewer (Baseline Case, Transportation Sector, using the table “Transportation Sector 

Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption” Table). Results are presented in Exhibit 2

and also in Exhibit 13 of Appendix A.

Exhibit 2. Total VMT by county, in billions of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per year for 2005, 2008, and 2018

2005 2008 2018

Kauai 0.79 0.78 0.88

Maui 1.43 1.42 1.60

Hawaii 1.65 1.64 1.84

Honolulu 6.25 6.37 7.09

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Annual VMT, in billions
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

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3.2. MOVES Analysis

The MOVES inputs discussed in Section 3.1 were used in simulations of countywide emissions 

for each combination of year and county, for a total of 12 unique MOVES simulations. All 

analyses were conducted with MOVES2010a.

3.3. Spatial Allocation of Emissions

An additional task requested under this work assignment was the determination of the fraction 

of on-road emissions within each county that influences the two Class 1 Visibility Areas: 

Haleakala and Hawaii Volcanoes National Parks. 

ICF based this analysis on available, link-based, HPMS data provided by the US Bureau of 

Transportation Statistics (BTS).6 The data available here represents only calendar year 2008, 

do not include vehicle-specific data, and do not cover all roadways or all VMT in the State. 

However, it is the best available information at the required spatial scale. 

As shown by Exhibit 3, the HPMS data cover most of the roads in Hawaii County, but only some 

of the roads in Maui County (some on the western half of Maui Island, and none on the islands 

of Kahoolawe, Lanai, and Molokai). For each available link, the 2008 ADVMT values were 

determined by multiplying the AADT values in the database by the link’s length. 

The locations of the monitors were representing each park were provided by EPA. A radius of 

150 km was chosen for each park following EPA recommendations. Finally, we estimated the 

fraction of emissions influencing each park as the fraction of 2008 VMT in the HPMS data for 

each county that lies within each buffer. The same fractions are assumed for each year. 

 

6

http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_atlas_database/2011/
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

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Exhibit 3. HPMS 2008 Link Based VMT, Radii of Influence, and Class 1 Visibility Areas 
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

UNC-EMAQ (5-12)-012.v1 10 March 23, 2012

4. Analysis of Results

4.1. Emissions

Exhibit 4 presents the principal results of the MOVES analysis: the total of all primary emissions 

for each species of concern for each year. This table describes emissions of key pollutants for 

each year and county. Note that the total PM components listed here are the sum of exhaust, 

brake wear, and tire wear. Exhibit 5 shows the trend for three key species across the three 

years graphically. Exhibit 6 shows the calculated results for each individual species modeled for 

every year. Exhibit 7 shows stacked bar graphs for calculated statewide pollutant totals, with the 

fraction of contribution by vehicle motor type for each of the three years modeled. Note that the 

total tonnage for each species, in thousands of metric tons per year, is shown below the species 

name in each case, to allow comparison of relative values across years. 

Exhibit 4. Summary Table of Onroad vehicle emissions (metric tons) by county for key pollutants in 2005, 

2008, and 2018

Year County

Carbon

Monoxide 

(CO)

Oxides of

Nitrogen 

(NOx)

Non-Methane 

Hydrocarbons

(NMHC)

PM10 - Total PM2.5 - Total

Sulfur 

Dioxide 

(SO2)

2005 Hawaii 19,618 3,546 2,042 113 81 58 

Honolulu 79,590 14,203 8,475 432 298 216 

Kauai 9,150 1,746 913 53 39 28 

Maui 17,674 3,259 1,871 105 75 52 

2008 Hawaii 12,919 2,530 1,441 97 65 17 

Honolulu 52,111 9,713 5,957 374 241 67 

Kauai 5,986 1,198 661 43 30 8 

Maui 11,586 2,256 1,338 89 59 15 

2018 Hawaii 9,426 925 646 70 36 12 

Honolulu 37,709 3,361 2,688 278 132 50 

Kauai 4,291 454 309 30 15 6 

Maui 8,558 836 636 64 31 11 

2005 Statewide 126,032 22,754 13,301 703 491 354 

2008 Statewide 82,602 15,696 9,398 603 394 107 

2018 Statewide 59,984 5,575 4,280 441 214 79 
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

UNC-EMAQ (5-12)-012.v1 11 March 23, 2012

Exhibit 5. Total on-road vehicle emissions in each county for each pollutant type for 2005, 2008, and 2018

Exhibit 6. Total statewide vehicle emissions for each chemical species simulated, in metric tons/year

 -

 10,000

 20,000

 30,000

 40,000

 50,000

 60,000

 70,000

 80,000

 90,000

2005 2008 2018 Metric Tons

CO

 Hawaii

 Honolulu

 Kauai

 Maui

 -

 1,000

 2,000

 3,000

 4,000

 5,000

 6,000

 7,000

 8,000

 9,000

2005 2008 2018 Metric Tons

NMHC

 Hawaii

 Honolulu

 Kauai

 Maui

 -

 2,000

 4,000

 6,000

 8,000

 10,000

 12,000

 14,000

 16,000

2005 2008 2018 Metric Tons

NOx

 Hawaii

 Honolulu

 Kauai

 Maui

 -

 50

 100

 150

 200

 250

 300

 350

 400

 450

 500

2005 2008 2018 Metric Tons

Total 

PM10

Hawaii

Honolulu

Kauai

Maui

 -

 50

 100

 150

 200

 250

 300

 350

2005 2008 2018 Metric Tons

Total 

PM2.5

Hawaii

Honolulu

Kauai

Maui

 -

 50

 100

 150

 200

 250

2005 2008 2018 Metric Tons

SO2

Hawaii

Honolulu

Kauai

Maui

0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

1,000.0

10,000.0

100,000.0

1,000,000.0 Statewide emissions (tons/year)

2005

2008

2018
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

UNC-EMAQ (5-12)-012.v1 12 March 23, 2012

Exhibit 7. Fractional emissions by chemical species for each year and vehicle type. 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CO

(126.03)

NOx

(22.75)

NMHC

(13.30)

PM10

(0.70)

PM2.5

(0.49)

SO2

(0.35)

2005 Emissions by Chemical Species (total tonnage, in thousands)

Combination Long-haul Truck

Combination Short-haul Truck

Single Unit Long-haul Truck

Single Unit Short-haul Truck

School Bus

Transit Bus

Intercity Bus

Refuse Truck

Motor Home

Light Commercial Truck

Passenger Truck

Passenger Car

Motorcycle

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CO

(82.60)

NOx

(15.70)

NMHC

(9.40)

PM10

(0.60)

PM2.5

(0.39)

SO2

(0.11)

2008 Emissions by Chemical Species (total tonnage, in thousands)

Combination Long-haul Truck

Combination Short-haul Truck

Single Unit Long-haul Truck

Single Unit Short-haul Truck

School Bus

Transit Bus

Intercity Bus

Refuse Truck

Motor Home

Light Commercial Truck

Passenger Truck

Passenger Car

Motorcycle
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

UNC-EMAQ (5-12)-012.v1 13 March 23, 2012

4.2. Comparison to Prior Estimates

In addition to the predicted values, we also compared our results to the prior analysis,

7

and all 

pollutants show trends that are consistent with previous MOVES-to-MOBILE comparisons for 

2005.8 A summary of statewide results found in this analyses versus the results from the 2010 

CAB report are shown below in Exhibit 8. For 2018 our results are lower than would be 

expected solely due to switching from MOBILE to MOVES, however this is largely due to the 

difference in our activity projections to 2018. Our projected 2018 VMT is around 20% less than 

the previous estimates, as shown below in Exhibit 9. The prior estimates were projected from 

2005 values and do not take full account of the effects of the global economic recession.

 

7 On-road Emissions Estimates for the Hawaiian Islands, Technical Memorandum, May 25, 2007, Environ 

International Corporation, Appendix A to FINAL EMISSION INVENTORY REPORT: DATA POPULATON OF AIR 

SYSTEM FOR HAWAII’S EMISSIONS DATA (AirSHED), Prepared for Hawaii Department of Health Clean Air 

Branch (a.k.a CAB Report). 

8

Air Pollution Emissions from Highway Vehicles: What MOVES Tells Us, Megan Beardsley, Jim Warila, Gary Dolce, 

John Koupal, US EPA . Presentation at the 18th Annual International Emission Inventory Conference: 

"Comprehensive Inventories -Leveraging Technology and Resources", Baltimore, Maryland, April, 2009. Available 

at: http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/conference/ei18/session6/beardsley.pdf

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CO

(59.98)

NOx

(5.58)

NMHC

(4.28)

PM10

(0.44)

PM2.5

(0.21)

SO2

(0.08)

2008 Emissions by Chemical Species (total tonnage, in thousands)

Combination Long-haul Truck

Combination Short-haul Truck

Single Unit Long-haul Truck

Single Unit Short-haul Truck

School Bus

Transit Bus

Intercity Bus

Refuse Truck

Motor Home

Light Commercial Truck

Passenger Truck

Passenger Car

Motorcycle
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

UNC-EMAQ (5-12)-012.v1 14 March 23, 2012

Exhibit 8. A comparison on current and prior statewide emissions estimates

Chemical 

Species

CAB Report Current Analysis Percent Difference Relative to 

CAB Report

2002 2005 2018 2005 2008 2018 2005 2018

VOC / NMHC 17,878 17,486 8,827 13,301 9,398 4,280 -16 % -47 %

CO 182,664 176,450 112,085 126,032 82,602 59,984 -21 % -41 %

Nox 15,862 15,907 6,800 22,754 15,696 5,575 58 % -10 %

PM10 377 412 397 703 603 441 88 % 23 %

PM2.5 229 247 187 491 394 214 119 % 26 %

SO2 176 371 129 354 107 79 5 % -32 %

Exhibit 9. Countywide total VMT in billions of miles from the current and prior analyses

Geographic 

Location

CAB Report Current Analysis Percent Difference Relative to 

CAB Report

2002 2005 2018 2005 2008 2018 2005 2018

Hawaii 1.38 1.65 2.24 1.65 1.64 1.84 -0.03% -17.78%

Honolulu 5.51 6.25 8.41 6.25 6.37 7.09 -0.04% -15.69%

Maui 1.24 1.43 1.93 1.43 1.42 1.60 0.32% -17.01%

Kauai 0.64 0.79 1.07 0.79 0.78 0.88 -0.03% -17.73%

Statewide 8.77 10.12 13.65 10.12 10.21 11.41 0.02% -16.38%

4.3. Spatial Allocation of Emissions

As discussed in Section 3.3, we also determined the fraction of emissions influencing each 

Class 1 Visibility Area based on 2008 VMT included in the BTS HPMS statistics and assuming a 

150-km buffer from each site. Exhibit 10 shows the estimated fractions to be considered in 

portioning emissions for each year. 

Exhibit 10. Countywide total VMT in billions of miles from the current and prior analyses

Hawaii 

County

Fraction of emissions influencing Hawaii 

Volcanoes Park

100%

Fraction of emissions influencing Haleakala 

Park

64%

Maui 

County

Fraction of emissions influencing Hawaii 

Volcanoes Park

0%

Fraction of emissions influencing Haleakala 

Park

100%
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UNC-EMAQ (5-12)-012.v1 15 March 23, 2012

That is, for Hawaii County, 100% of on-road, mobile source emissions can be considered to 

impact Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, while 64% of the county-wide emissions can be 

considered to impact Haleakala National Park. For Maui County, 100% of the county-wide 

emissions impact Haleakala National Park, while none impact Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. 

No other county’s emissions impact either Park. 
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

UNC-EMAQ (5-12)-012.v1 16 March 23, 2012

5. References

Air Pollution Emissions from Highway Vehicles: What MOVES Tells Us, Megan Beardsley, Jim 

Warila, Gary Dolce, John Koupal, US EPA . Presentation at the 18th Annual International 

Emission Inventory Conference: "Comprehensive Inventories -Leveraging Technology 

and Resources", Baltimore, Maryland, April, 2009. Available at: 

http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/conference/ei18/session6/beardsley.pdf

AirSHED vs. NEI: A table comparison of the two existing inventories prepared by the Hawaii 

Department of Health using 2005 emissions.

"County Specific VMT Data." 9 Mar. 2012. E-mail correspondence between Yibo Hsu (Hawaii 

DOT) and Steven Keith (ICF).

"FW: County Specific VMT Data." 9 Mar. 2012. E-mail correspondence between Daniel Jenkins

(FHWA), Justin Clarke (FHWA), and Steven Keith (ICF).

"Fw: ICF GHG Data-gathering." 8 Mar. 2012. E-mail correspondence between Goro

Sulijoadikusumo (Hawaii DOT), Joseph Hausman (FHWA) and Steven Keith (ICF).

"Fw: Input Data for Moves." Date: 12/30/2011 02:22PM, E-mail correspondence between 

Gregory Nudd (USEPA) and ", Marianne Fuji Rossio Hawaii DOH. 

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES): User Guide for MOVES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036 

August 2010.

On-road Emissions Estimates for the Hawaiian Islands, Technical Memorandum, May 25, 2007. 

Appendix A to "Final Emission Inventory Report: Data Population of Air System for 

Hawaii’s Emissions Data (AirSHED), April 12, 2010, Environ International Corporation. 

"RE: County Specific VMT Data." 12 Mar. 2012. E-mail correspondence between Robert 

Rozycki (FHWA) and Steven Keith (ICF).

"RE: Requesting Information on GHG Inventory for HI." 9 Mar. 2012. E-mail correspondence 

between John Venezia (ICF) and Steven Keith (ICF).

"RE: State Specific Transportation Demand Data." 8 Mar. 2012. E-mail correspondence 

between John Maples (EIA) and Steven Keith (ICF).

"RE: State Specific Transportation Demand Data." 8 Mar. 2012. E-mail correspondence 

between Victoria Zaretskaya (EIA) and Steven Keith (ICF).

“RE: Hawaii Vehicle Registration”. 2 Feb 2012. E-mail correspondence between Scott 

Takamoto (DOH) and Seth Hartley (ICF). 
Technical Analysis for Hawaii’s Regional Haze FIP Report – Task 16: On-Road Mobile Emissions Inventory

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“RE: MOVES Inputs for HI Emissions Inventory Update”. 1 Mar 2012. E-mail correspondence 

between Scott Takamoto (DOH) and Andy Shapiro (ICF). 

State and County QuickFacts. Kalawao County, Hawaii. Data derived from Population 

Estimates, American Community Survey, Census of Population and Housing, State and 

County Housing Unit Estimates, County Business Patterns, Nonemployer Statistics, 

Economic Census, Survey of Business Owners, Building Permits, Consolidated Federal 

Funds Report. U.S. Census Bureau. Last Revised: 31-Jan-2012. Accessed 15 Mar 

2012. http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/15/15005.html

Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State 

Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, EPA-420-B-09-042, December 

2009. 

Tools for MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator), US EPA. Accessed 15 Mar. 2012. 

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/tools.htm.

Using MOVES for Estimating State and Local Inventories of On-Road Greenhouse Gas 

Emissions and Energy Consumption, Public Draft, EPA-420-D-12-001, January 2012.
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6. Appendix A: Additional Data Preprocessing Details

6.1. Vehicle Age Distribution by Vehicle Type

ICF was unable to find any Hawaii-specific data regarding the fraction by age of each vehicle 

type in Hawaii, so the MOVES defaults, taken from EPA’s MOVES tools website,9 was used for 

each year. Separate defaults were used for each year but the same values were used across all 

counties.

6.2. Speed Distribution

ICF was unable to find any Hawaii-specific data for average speed fraction by source type, road 

type, and hour of the day from any sources. Thus the same MOVES defaults were used for all 

counties and years, exported from the tool. 

6.3. Source Population

Along with the county-specific Hawaii registration data used to populate the source populations 

in MOVES, a crosswalk was created to correlate the population bins in the registration bins to 

the MOVES model input bins. Exhibit 11 shows this crosswalk. In the case where multiple 

MOVES source types were matched, a partitioning of the vehicle registration type to all 

matching MOVES vehicle types was used to allocate the population to the appropriate category.

 

9

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/tools.htm
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Exhibit 11. Crosswalk of Hawaii Vehicle Registration Type to MOVES Source and Fractional Allocation

Hawaii Vehicle Registration 

Type MOVES Source Type and Vehicle ID

Percent of Registration 

Data Partitioned to 

MOVES Category

Motorcycles Motorcycle (11) 100%

Car Passenger Car (21) 100%

Truck

Passenger Truck (31) 74%

Light Commercial Truck (32) 25%

Motor Home (54) 1%

Bus

Intercity Bus (41) 12%

Transit Bus (42) 7%

School Bus (43) 82%

Freight Truck

Refuse Truck (51) 2%

Single Unit Short-haul Truck (52) 98%

Single Unit Long-haul Truck (53) 0%

Combination Long-haul Truck (62) 0%

Truck/Tractor + Truck/Crane Combination Short-haul Truck (61) 100%

a Default population fractions in MOVES were used to allocate a single Hawaii vehicle registration type to 

multiple MOVES source types

b

It was assumed that there are no single unit long-haul or combination long-haul trucks in the state of 

Hawaii
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Exhibit 12. Estimated source type population by county and year (MOVES input)

MOVES Source Type

2005 2008 2018

Honolulu Hawaii Maui Kauai Honolulu Hawaii Maui Kauai Honolulu Hawaii Maui Kauai

Motorcycle 16,650 3,546 3,188 1,490 18,964 3,947 3,771 1,765 23,078 5,118 4,602 2,018

Passenger Car 594,100 132,620 125,169 54,910 595,825 133,722 121,249 52,722 661,651 146,095 136,240 58,867

Passenger Truck 44,687 14,833 17,044 12,005 43,071 17,031 17,296 12,099 46,223 19,383 17,605 13,216

Light Commercial Truck 14,929 4,955 5,694 4,011 14,389 5,690 5,778 4,042 16,415 6,883 6,252 4,694

Intercity Bus 227 33 32 1 206 32 24 1 244 37 25 3

Transit Bus 124 18 18 1 113 17 13 1 133 20 13 2

School Bus 1,557 229 222 9 1,416 219 162 9 1,677 253 167 26

Refuse Truck 772 240 161 56 822 263 183 66 907 278 189 75

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 40,234 12,500 8,382 2,900 42,869 13,736 9,536 3,467 47,258 14,474 9,904 3,898

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Motor Home 560 186 213 150 539 213 217 152 615 258 234 176

Combination Short-haul Truck 737 227 142 27 1,390 291 173 19 2,342 342 161 188

Combination Long-haul Truck 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 714,577 169,387 160,265 75,560 719,604 175,161 158,402 74,343 800,543 193,141 175,392 83,163

Exhibit 13. Calculated total VMT by county and year inputs for MOVES Modeling

Source Type (HPMSV ID)

2005 2008 2018

Hawaii Honolulu Maui Kauai Hawaii Honolulu Maui Kauai Hawaii Honolulu Maui Kauai

Motorcycles (10) 1.24E+07 4.55E+07 1.14E+07 7.31E+06 1.23E+07 4.65E+07 1.14E+07 7.25E+06 1.37E+07 5.10E+07 1.28E+07 8.04E+06

Passenger Cars (20) 1.32E+09 5.39E+09 1.13E+09 5.99E+08 1.31E+09 5.49E+09 1.13E+09 5.94E+08 1.46E+09 6.08E+09 1.25E+09 6.63E+08

Other 2 axle-4 tire vehicles (30) 2.40E+08 5.99E+08 2.16E+08 1.41E+08 2.39E+08 6.09E+08 2.15E+08 1.40E+08 2.76E+08 7.02E+08 2.51E+08 1.60E+08

Buses (40) 9.31E+06 3.44E+07 8.26E+06 3.86E+06 9.27E+06 3.49E+07 8.26E+06 3.79E+06 1.10E+07 4.19E+07 9.79E+06 4.66E+06

Single Unit Trucks (50) 4.78E+07 1.17E+08 4.48E+07 2.91E+07 4.76E+07 1.19E+08 4.47E+07 2.89E+07 5.68E+07 1.41E+08 5.38E+07 3.42E+07

Combination Trucks (60) 1.95E+07 6.49E+07 1.69E+07 9.91E+06 1.93E+07 6.60E+07 1.69E+07 9.85E+06 2.30E+07 7.82E+07 2.02E+07 1.16E+07

Total 1.65E+09 6.25E+09 1.43E+09 7.90E+08 1.64E+09 6.37E+09 1.42E+09 7.83E+08 1.84E+09 7.09E+09 1.60E+09 8.82E+08
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6.4. VMT Fraction by Vehicle Source and Road Type

MOVES requires an input file which reports the fraction of VMT for each source type and road 

type combination, where the fraction of VMT equals one for each source type. Using the total 

VMT values methods described above, we calculated the fraction of VMT by vehicle type and 

road type in the MOVES-specified format. Note that these values were derived using HPMS 

VMT data by county for 2005, 2008, and 2018 using extroplated VMT data from 2011 and AEO 

VMT national growth rates. Partitioning of total VMT by vehicle type was conducted using 

HPMS data for 2008 for all years which were modeled.

6.5. Meteorological Data

ICF was provided 2005 meteorological data for each county in the MOBILE6 modeling format. 

Meteorological data was converted from the MOBILE6 format into the MOVES format using the 

MOVES processing tools found on their website (EPA 2011). In some cases meteorological 

data were provided for multiple islands within one county. ICF compared the results across the 

meteorological stations, and if values were found to be sufficiently similar, results were 

averaged across islands to calculate the single meteorological profile required for each county. 

This was conducted for Kauai county (averaging Kauai and Niihau Islands) and Maui County 

(averaging Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe Islands).

ICF was also provided 2008 meteorological data in a MOVES compatible format; no changes 

were made to these data, as they were already county-specific.

Finally, default meteorological data in the MOVES database were used for each county in 2018. 

This data represents a 30-year climate normal, and is specific to each county.

6.6. Monthly, Daily, and Hourly VMT Fractions

MOVES default monthly, daily, and hourly VMT fractions were used for partitioning VMT data 

across the time-periods modeled in MOVES. ICF was unable to find any Hawaii-specific values. 

The same defaults were used for all years and counties.

6.7. Ramp Fraction

MOVES defaults were used for the the fraction of roadways that are ramps; ICF was unable to 

find any Hawaii-specific values.

6.8. Fuel Supply and Fuel Formulation

MOVES default fuel formulations were used for years 2005 and 2018. These values are 

consistent with the status of current regulations regarding fuel formulations. However, a custom 

gasoline fuel formulation was used for 2008 which was provided to ICF by Scott Takamoto at 
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the DOH. It was noted that the default fuel formulation values were changed using data 

obtained by the DOH regarding fuel formulation from Hawaii’s two refinieries (Chevron and 

Tesoro). The average values used here were from a full year of 2008 Chevron data and partial 

years of Tesoro September 2005- January 2006 and April 2006 – July 2006 using ethanol. It 

was also noted that due to stable and warm climate of Hawaii, relative vapor pressure does not 

change seasonally, and therefore the custom fuel blend was updated to account for this. Finally, 

a custom formulation was required in 2008 but not other years due to the formulation of this 

parameter in the default MOVES database. Exhibit 14 presents the custom fuel blend used for 

2008, along with a comparison of the default 2008 fuel blends versus the custom blend.

Exhibit 14. Comparison of default 2008 gasoline fuel blends and custom 2008 Hawaii blend

Description

Standard 2008 

Default Blend

10% Ethanol Default 

2008 Blend

Custom Hawaii 2008 

Blend

Annual Market Share

11%

(default, 0% used)

89% 

(default, 0% used)

100%

(replaced default blends)

Fuel Formulation ID 7669 2276 9999

Relative Vapor Pressure 13.0886 13.0886 9.61

Sulfur Level 42.4925 42.4925 32.4

ETOH Volume 0 10 10

MTBE Volume 0 0 0

ETBE Volume 0 0 0

TAME Volume 0 0 0

Aromatic Content 28.7253 28.7253 23.98

Olefin Content 13.51 13.51 11.89

Benzene Content 0.8 0.8 1.06

E200 53.5964 53.5964 54.61

E300 87.604 87.604 90.47

Biodiesel Ester Volume 0 0 0

Cetane Index 0 0 0

PAH Content 0 0 0

Note that the custom fuel blend used for 2008 was assumed to be used in 100% of gasoline 

vehicles. In all other cases, including 2008 diesel vehicles, the default fuel formulation and fuel 

usage fractions were used.