U S C E N S U S B U R E A U

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U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Dynamics of Economic Well-Being:

Spells of Unemployment, 1996-1999

Household Economic Studies

Demographic Programs

Issued September 2003

Current

Population

Reports

By Alfred O. Gottschalck

P70-93

This report presents data from the

1996 panel of the Survey of Income

and Program Participation (SIPP) on

how long people remained

unemployed during each of the

times (spells) they experienced

unemployment. The data cover the

period of January 1996 through

December 1999.1 The table in the

appendix displays the detailed

statistical data analyzed in this

report.

The labor market of the United States is

dynamic and flexible, changing as people

enter and exit it or change jobs within it.

And, as the overall structure of the U.S.

economy continues to shift, from a manufacturing base to a service-oriented base,

so does the demand for particular types of

labor.2 Data on spells of unemployment

provide an insight into how easily the market allows people to make these transitions

and respond to shifts in labor demand.

Unemployment lasted longer for

men than for women.

The median duration of a spell of unemployment for individuals was 1.8 months

during the period from January 1996

through December 1999.3 The median

spell of unemployment for women (1.7

This report is an update of a section of a previous report, P70-48: "Dynamics of

Economic Well-Being: Labor Force, 1991 - 1993," August 1995, which contained a

statistical analysis of unemployment spells, labor turnover, and new job earnings

using the 1991 panel of SIPP. This report updates the unemployment spells analysis

portion of the earlier report by expanding the demographic groups examined and

using the 1996 panel of SIPP. The data presented in this report span the period 1996

through 1999. Due to the redesign of the 1996 SIPP panel, the reader should use

caution in making comparisons between the 1996 SIPP panel and other SIPP panels.

1 SIPP is a longitudinal panel survey that interviews a

representative sample of U.S. households every 4

months. The population represented (the population universe) is the civilian noninstitutionalized population of the

United States. The core content of SIPP identifies demographic characteristics, labor force participation, government program participation, and various income sources

of respondents in sampled households. The longitudinal

estimates presented here are based on people who were

interviewed in all waves of the reference period, or for

whom imputed information exists. Efforts were made

during the life of the panel to ensure that the sample

remained representative of the noninstitutional population of the United States. If the people included in the

estimates have different experiences of employment and

unemployment than the people who did not respond initially, left the sample, or missed two or more consecutive

waves, these longitudinal estimates may be biased. The

panel consists of four rotations interviewed in consecutive months. For rotations with missing data at the

beginning of 1996 or end of 1999, imputations were

made on the basis of the closest month of data available.

Rotation 3 had 1 month of data imputed in 1996, rotation

4 had 2 months imputed in that year, and rotation 1 had

1 month of imputed data in 1999.

2 For a more thorough discussion of U.S. economic

structural change and its relationship to changing labor

demands, see Kevin Murphy and Finis Welch, "Industrial

Change and the Rising Importance of Skill," pages 101-

132 in Uneven Tides: Rising Inequality in America,

Sheldon H. Danziger and Peter Gottschalk, eds., 1993,

and George E. Johnson, "Changes in Earnings Inequality:

The Role of Demand Shifts," pages 41-54 in Journal of

Economic Perspectives, Spring 1997.

3 The estimates in this report are based on responses

from a sample of the population. As with all surveys,

estimates may vary from the actual values because of

sampling variation and other factors. All comparisons

made in this report have undergone statistical testing and

are significant at the 90-percent confidence level unless

otherwise noted. All spells are included in the statistical

analysis, so individuals may be represented more than

once. Median spell duration estimates relate to the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States 15

years old and over at the end of the 1996 SIPP panel in

December 1999.
months) was shorter than that for

men (1.9 months), which may

reflect a segmentation between men

and women in the types of jobs

they were seeking, the intensity of

their job searches, the conditions

under which they would accept jobs

(reservation wage, for example),

and other factors (see Figure 1).

Unemployment lasted longer

for Black workers than for

non-Hispanic White workers.

Non-Hispanic White workers experienced the shortest spells of unemployment, while Black workers had

the longest (see Figure 1).4 Black

workers had a median spell length

that was 69 percent longer than

that of non-Hispanic White workers

and 35 percent longer than that of

Hispanic workers. Both male and

female Black workers had unemployment spell durations that were

longer than their non-Hispanic

White and Hispanic counterparts

(see Figure 1). Male Black workers

had a median duration of 3.1

months and female Black workers a

median of 2.4 months. The median

unemployment spell length for

Black women (2.4 months) was

shorter than that of Black men (3.1

months).5

The median length of an

unemployment spell tended 

to increase with age. 

Spell length and age were positively

related, with the median unemployment spell duration generally

increasing with age (see Figure 2).

The shortest median spell length

was 1.4 months for 16- to 19-yearolds; the longest was 2.3 months

for people aged 45-54. Both male

20- to 24-year-olds (1.9 months)

and male 25- to 34-year-olds (2.2

months) had longer spell lengths

than their female counterparts (1.5

months and 1.7 months) (see Figure

3). Of the male age cohorts, 16- to

19-year-olds had the shortest spell

lengths (1.5 months). Within the

female age cohorts, 16- to 19-yearolds had the shortest spell lengths

(1.4 months) when compared to 25-

to 34-year-olds (1.7 months), 35- to

44-year-olds (1.9 months), and 45-

to-54-year-olds (2.2 months). The

shorter unemployment spell durations for younger workers relative

to older workers may be partly a

result of younger workers possessing more current job skills that the

modern service-oriented labor market demands and being less constrained by family responsibilities,

thereby allowing them to transition

between jobs more easily and

quickly. Also, younger workers

tend to be less well-paid than older

workers, and since more jobs are

available in the lower wage ranges,

younger workers may be able to

transition between lower paying

jobs more quickly.

Greater education was usually

associated with shorter

unemployment spells.

Educational attainment was negatively related to spell length. The

greater the educational attainment,

the shorter the spell of unemployment (see Figure 4). Individuals

with less than a high school education had a median spell-length that

2 U.S. Census Bureau

4 Because Hispanics may be of any race,

data in this report for Hispanics overlap slightly

with data for the Black population. For this

report, the number of Hispanic Black workers

comprised less than 1 percent of total workers.

Data for Asians and Pacific Islanders and

American Indians and Alaska Natives are not

shown in this report because of their small sample sizes.

5 The median spell lengths for non-Hispanic

White women (1.5 months) and Hispanic

women (1.8 months) were not statistically different from that of their male counterparts (1.6

months for non-Hispanic White males and 2.4

months for Hispanic males). 

Figure 1.

Median Duration of Spells of Unemployment by Sex, 

Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1996-1999 (In months)

Demographic Group

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.6

2.7

2.0

1.6

1.5

3.1

2.4

2.4

1.8

Total Workers

Men

Women

White, non-Hispanic

Black

Hispanic

White, non-Hispanic Males

White, non-Hispanic Females

Black Males

Black Females

Hispanic Males

Hispanic Females

 Note: Includes all unemployment spells for people in the labor force; 

 people of Hispanic origin can be of any race.

 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1996 panel.
U.S. Census Bureau 3

Figure 2.

Median Duration of Spells of Unemployment by Age: 1996-1999

(In months)

1.4

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.3

2.0

16 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55+

Age (years)

Note: Includes all unemployment spells for people in the labor force.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1996 panel.

Figure 3.

Median Duration of Spells of Unemployment by Age and Sex: 1996-1999 

(In months)

1.5

1.9

2.2 2.2

2.4

2.2

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.2

1.8

16 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55+

Age (years)

Male

Female

Note: Includes all unemployment spells for people in the labor force.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1996 panel.
was 47 percent longer than that of

college educated individuals. The

higher unemployment spell duration for workers with less than a

high school education relative to

more highly educated workers may

partly reflect the diminished

employment opportunities for lessskilled workers over the time period examined in this report. 6

SOURCE OF THE DATA

The population represented (the

population universe) in the 1996

Survey of Income and Program

Participation (SIPP) is the civilian

noninstitutionalized population of

the United States.

4 U.S. Census Bureau

6 See America Unequal, by Sheldon H.

Danziger and Peter Gottschalk, 1995, for a discussion of the diminished employment opportunities for less-skilled workers relative to more

highly-skilled workers in the United States.

Description of Concepts

1. Spell of unemployment: an uninterrupted period of months in

which an individual was unemployed. For this analysis, an individual

was unemployed in a given month only if they had no job all month

and spent at least 1 week on layoff or looking for work. This definition of unemployment differs slightly from the definition used for the

Current Population Survey (CPS). SIPP considers some people who

were absent without pay from a job because of layoff to be "with a

job"; these people are excluded from the definition of unemployment

used here, but not necessarily from the CPS definition. 

2. Layoff: an individual was on "layoff" if the individual was (1)

released from a job because of slack work, material shortages, inventory taking, plant remodeling, installation of machinery, or other similar reasons; and (2) anticipated being recalled to the job. 

3. Looking for work: an individual "looked for work" in a given month

if the individual was (1) without a job during at least 1 week during

the month; and (2) tried to get work or establish a business or profession in that week.

4. Median spell duration: that value of spell length that divides the

distribution of spells by length into two equal parts: one half being

longer and the other half shorter than the median.

5. Civilian noninstitutional population 15 years old and over: the

population 15 years old and over that does not reside in institutions,

such as correctional institutions and nursing homes.

Figure 4.

Median Duration of Spells of Unemployment by 

Educational Attainment for People 21 and Over: 1996-1999 

(In months)

2.5

2.1

1.7

Less than high school High school graduate At least some college

Educational Attainment

Note: Includes all unemployment spells for people in the labor force.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1996 panel.
U.S. Census Bureau 5

The data in this report refer to the

period from January 1996 through

December 1999. The institutionalized population, which is excluded

from the population universe, is

composed primarily of the population in correctional institutions and

nursing homes (91 percent of the

4.1 million institutionalized population in Census 2000).

ACCURACY OF THE ESTIMATES

Statistics from surveys are subject

to sampling and nonsampling error.

All comparisons presented in this

report have taken sampling error

into account and are significant at

the 90-percent confidence level.

This means the 90-percent confidence interval for the difference

between the estimates being compared does not include zero.

Nonsampling errors in surveys may

be attributed to a variety of

sources, such as how the survey

was designed, how respondents

interpret questions, how able and

willing respondents are to provide

correct answers, and how accurately the answers are coded and classified. The Census Bureau employs

quality control procedures throughout the production process including the overall design of surveys,

the wording of questions, review of

the work of interviewers and

coders, and statistical review of

reports to minimize these errors.

The Survey of Income and Program

Participation (SIPP) weighting procedure uses ratio estimation, whereby

sample estimates are adjusted to

independent estimates of the

national population by age, race,

sex, and Hispanic origin. This

weighting partially corrects for bias

due to undercoverage, but biases

may still be present when people

who are missed by the survey diffe

from those interviewed in ways

other than the age, race, sex, and

Hispanic origin. How this weighting procedure affects other variables in the survey is not precisely

known. All of these considerations

affect comparisons across different

surveys or data sources.7

For further information on the

source of the data and accuracy of

the estimates, including standard

errors and confidence intervals, go

to http://www.sipp.census.gov

/sipp/sourceac/S&A96_030228.

Long.pdf or contact John L. Boies,

Demographic Statistical Methods

Division, at

John.L.Boies@census.gov

r

CONTACTS

Labor Force Statistics – 

Statistical Information Staff

301-763-3242

hhes-info@census.gov

This report – 

Thomas J. Palumbo

Branch Chief, Labor Force and

Transfer Program Statistics Branch

301-763-6263

USER COMMENTS

The Census Bureau welcomes the

comments and advice of users of its

data and reports. If you have any

suggestions or comments, please

send an e-mail inquiry to:

hhes-info@census.gov.

SUGGESTED CITATION

Gottschalck, Alfred O. 

Dynamics of Economic Well-Being:

Spells of Unemployment, 

1996-1999. 

Current Population Reports, P70-93,

U.S. Census Bureau, 

Washington, DC. 2003.

7 For a more detailed discussion of SIPP

sampling and weighting, see

http://www.sipp.census.gov/sipp

/sam_and_wt.html
6 U.S. Census Bureau

Appendix.

Unemployment Spells by Sex, Age, Educational

Attainment, and Race: 1996-1999

Characteristic Total number

of spells

(thousands)

Median

length

of spells

(months)

Standard

Error

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sex

Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Women................................

Age

16 to 19 years . . . . .....................

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Female ..............................

20 to 24 years . . . . .....................

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Female ..............................

25 to 34 years . . . . .....................

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Female ..............................

35 to 44 years . . . . .....................

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Female ..............................

45 to 54 years . . . . .....................

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Female ..............................

55 years and over ......................

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Female ..............................

Educational Attainment

(people 21 years and over)

Less than high school ...................

High school graduate ...................

At least some college ...................

Race/Ethnicity

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Female ..............................

Not of Hispanic origin ...................

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Female ............................

Black. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Female ..............................

Hispanic origin (of any race).............

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Female ..............................

Year Spell Started

1996 ..................................

1997 ..................................

1998 ..................................

1999 ..................................

55,236

26,359

28,877

14,327

7,575

6,752

10,177

4,831

5,346

12,224

5,242

6,982

10,217

4,660

5,558

5,845

2,769

3,076

2,445

1,282

1,164

7,822

13,241

17,786

40,795

19,724

21,071

34,160

16,667

17,493

11,585

5,212

6,373

7,213

3,311

3,902

14,123

14,541

14,136

12,436

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.7

1.9

1.5

1.9

2.2

1.7

2.0

2.2

1.9

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.0

2.2

1.8

2.5

2.1

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.5

2.7

3.1

2.4

2.0

2.4

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.9

0.04

0.07

0.06

0.09

0.13

0.12

0.10

0.16

0.13

0.09

0.18

0.12

0.13

0.18

0.14

0.17

0.27

0.23

0.24

0.36

0.26

0.17

0.13

0.07

0.05

0.07

0.07

0.05

0.07

0.07

0.19

0.11

0.24

0.21

0.31

0.21

0.06

0.07

0.07

0.08

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1996 SIPP panel, January 1996-December 1999.
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