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## Use Of CO

2 

## Emission Rate Data to Derive

Achievable NSPS for Coal

‐ Fired Electric

Generating Units

Supporting Material for the July 31, 2013

Discussion with

Office of Management & Budget

Prepared by

J. Edward Cichanowicz and Michael C. Hein

Consultants to ACCCE



# DISCUSSION OUTLINE

• Consider Full “Plate” of Reference Units

• Factors Affecting CO

2 

### Emissions Rate

• Variability in CO

2 

### Emissions

• Achievable CO

2 

### Emission Rates

• Ultra

‐ Supercritical Boiler (AEP Turk) CO

2 

### Emission Rate Variability

Cichanowicz, Hein OMB Discussion: July 31, 2013 2

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## 55 “NEW” COAL

‐ FIRED UNITS COMMENCED

OPERATION AFTER JAN 1, 2007

22 Units 55

Units Fuel:

‐ 6

Capacity:

‐ 20

Cooling:

‐ 2

Data Available:

‐ 7 Subcritical PC

‐ 8 PRB

‐ 2 E. Bit

Supercritical PC

‐ 2 PRB

‐ 2 E. Bit

‐ 2 Texas Lignite

f ( ) EPA Reference +1

‐ Remove Bull Run

‐ Keep Zimmer

‐ Weston, W Scott

included Subcritical FBC

‐ 2 Texas lignite (+1)

‐ 1 E. Bit

OMB Discussion: July 31, 2013 Cichanowicz, Hein 3



## 17 “PC” UNITS FIRING PRB, E. BIT

OMB Discussion: July 31, 2013 Cichanowicz, Hein 4

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## WHAT AFFECTS CO

2 

## EMISSION RATE?

• Steam Conditions (Supercritical vs. Subcritical)

• Heat Rejection Method

– Once

‐ thru vs. cooling towers (wet, dry, hybrid)

– Cooling towers: ambient temperature, humidity



### • Coal Composition (Moisture, Acid Dewpoint)

• Operating Duty

– First year can be atypical

– % maximum capacity (excess air, steam turbine)

– Cycling vs. steady state

Cichanowicz, Hein OMB Discussion: July 31, 2013 5

OMB Discussion: July 31, 2013 Cichanowicz, Hein 6



## CO

2 

## EMISSION RATE: EFFECT OF LOAD

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## CAPTURE, REFLECT CO

2 

## VARIABILITY?

• Statistically Treat Data from Many Units

• Example: 1997 NOx NSPS

– Limited data: Use hourly data to calculate block,

rolling averages for units with NOx controls

– Statistical method 1 : EPA found 30

‐ day NOx limits

attained with infrequent “failure” (1%, 1/yr; 1/10 yrs)



### • Parallel for 2013 CO

2 

### NSPS

– Limited data: annual basis

– Same statistical method can derive annual emissions

1 New Source Performance Standards, Subpart Da

– Technical Support for Proposed Revisions to NOx Standard,

EPA

‐ 453/R

‐ 94

‐ 012, June 1997

Cichanowicz, Hein OMB Discussion: July 31, 2013 7



## ANALYTICAL APPROACH

• Eliminate 1 st 

### Year

‐ Atypical (1 to 11 months)

• “Pool” Data From Exhibit 6 in Categories

• Explore Key Variables

– Fuel type (PRB vs. E. Bit vs. lignite)

– Boiler type (PC subcrit, FBC subcrit, PC supercrit)



### • Focus on Three Categories

– Subcritical boilers: subbit/bit

– Supercritical boilers: subbit/bit

– Fluid bed, “PC” boilers: lignite

Cichanowicz, Hein OMB Discussion: July 31, 2013 8

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## CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION:

DAILY CO

2 

## DATA (w/o 1 st 

### Yr)

OMB Discussion: July 31, 2013 Cichanowicz, Hein 9



## ANNUAL EMISSION RATE PER

DAILY CO

2 

## DATA: TWO “FAILURE” RATES

OMB Discussion: July 31, 2013 Cichanowicz, Hein 10

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OMB Discussion: July 31, 2013 Cichanowicz, Hein 11 

## TURK ULTRA

‐ SUPERCRITICAL BOILER:

CO

2 

## EMISSIONS RATE VARIABILITY



## OBSERVATIONS: CO

2 

## EMISSION DATA

• 22 New Units Since 2007 Suggest

– Subcritical: 2,080 lbs/MWh

– Lignite: 2,150 lbs/ MWh

– Supercritical: 1,915 lbs/MWh



### • Limited Data from Ultra

‐ Supercritical Units

– Thermal efficiency (LHV

‐ Basis) typically reported

– Coal composition to convert to HHV

‐ basis

– Operating conditions unknown



### • Hourly CO

2 

### , MWh Data for Realistic Analysis

Cichanowicz, Hein OMB Discussion: July 31, 2013 12

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# Questions?

Cichanowicz, Hein OMB Discussion: July 31, 2013 13

7