A QUARTERLY RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT JOURNAL

VOLUME 1, NO. 1

WINTER • 1999

CONFIDENCE BY DESIGN:

Ensuring things don’t fail

ALSO:

Managing ambiguous data

Sandia to develop custom

Pentium® chip

Sandia, Compaq set world

record in database sorting
SANDIA TECHNOLOGY

 Surety science and

engineering began 50 years

ago in the defense sector

and grew from the need to

know if nuclear materials

were used only as intended,

were safe in abnormal

environments, and

secure in malevolent

circumstances. [ [

Sandia’s Z accelerator, the most powerful producer of X-rays in the world

ON THE COVER: Technician Stephanie Reel with plenum of one of several

metal deposition systems in the Microelectronics Development Laboratory

at Sandia National Laboratories. Metal deposition systems are used for

radiation-hardened microelectronics processing. (See NewsNotes, page 6.)

Sandia Technology is a quarterly journal published by

Sandia National Laboratories. Sandia is a multiprogram

engineering and science laboratory operated by Sandia

Corporation, a Lockheed Martin company, for the

Department of Energy. With main facilities in Albuquerque,

New Mexico, and Livermore, California, Sandia has broadbased research and development responsibilities for nuclear

weapons, arms control, energy, the environment, economic

competitiveness, and other areas of importance to the needs

of the nation. The Laboratories’ principal mission is to

support national defense policies, by ensuring that the

nuclear weapon stockpile meets the highest standards of

safety, reliability, security, use control, and military

performance. For more information on Sandia, see our

Web site at http://www.sandia.gov.

To request additional copies or to subscribe, contact:

Chris Miller, Editor

Marketing Communications Dept.

MS 0129

Sandia National Laboratories

P.O. Box 5800

Albuquerque, NM 87185-0129

Voice: (505) 844-5550

Fax: (505) 844-1392

e-mail: cmiller@sandia.gov

Sandia Technology Staff:

Laboratory Directed Research & Development Program

Manager: Chuck Meyers, Sandia National Laboratories

Editor: Chris Miller, Sandia National Laboratories

Researchers: Joy Bemesderfer & Donna Drayer,

Technically Write

Writer: Katharine Beebe, Technically Write

Designer: Douglas Prout, Technically Write

Photographer: Randy Montoya, Sandia National

Laboratories
SANDIA TECHNOLOGY

Dear Readers:

 This is the first issue of a new

publication produced by Sandia

National Laboratories called Sandia

Technology, a quarterly research and

development journal. We created

Sandia Technology by merging two

previous publications – Inside Sandia

and Emergent. We hope you agree with

us that combining the two parts does

equal a better whole. Sandia Technology

incorporates Inside Sandia’s focus on

Sandia technologies that have made it

out of the laboratory and are or soon

will be benefiting Americans, as well

as Emergent’s focus on innovative

technological concepts now under

development in the laboratory.

 This issue focuses on surety science

and engineering, an evolving discipline

whose origins date to the development

of nuclear weapons. This new era of

high-consequence management has

required new approaches to ensure we

don’t experience the unthinkable – an

accidental nuclear detonation. Surety

science and engineering principles have

kept our nuclear stockpile safe, secure,

and reliable. Many technological

advances have come directly from our

weapons surety program, and we believe

that sharing surety practices,

technologies, and strategies will benefit

the nation in many other areas.

 We hope you enjoy this debut issue

of Sandia Technology. Please let us

know what you think.

Sincerely,

Chris Miller

Editor

FROM THE

Editor

TABLE OF

Contents

249

10

11

Confidence by Design

News Notes

(pages 4, 6, 8, 12)

Surety as a Discipline

Navigating Computational

Wrong Turns

Walking on Eggs

during and after the Cold War

Comments by

Dr. William Wulf, President

National Academy of Engineering

INSIGHTS
“The more important

something is when it works,the

more it can hurt you when it

fails.”

Ted Dellin, Sandia National

Laboratories

 The airplane your children board.

Your last flu shot. The cyberspace

network you trade stocks on.

Whatever it is, it's safe if it cannot

harm you, reliable if it doesn't fail,

and secure if it's yours and functions

for no one else. In other words, it's

a sure thing.

 Safe, reliable, secure – sounds

simple until you consider the tangle

of systems that typify modern life.

In a systems context, safety, reliability,

and security are the challenge. Every

day, people depend more heavily on

technological systems. Those systems

interact to serve users better. Unfortunately, as technologies evolve, so does

the potential for failure – and

catastrophe.

 Systems are complex. Complexity

spawns breakdowns. And breakdowns invite disaster.

Witness these examples:

August 1996: Power cables in the

Northwest sag into tree limbs and

plunge power-grid users throughout the

western United States into darkness.

When power is restored, some

telecommunications systems are just

two hours from exhausting reserves and

shutting down services.

January 1998: An ice storm cripples

New England and southern Quebec,

leaving businesses and residents without

power for as long as three weeks.

Canada alone suffers losses of $1.6

billion.

May 1998: A single failed

communications satellite disables 90

percent of the pagers across the United

States, along with ATMs, credit-card

systems, and TV and radio networks

worldwide. Physicians, law

enforcement officials, and others who

rely on instant communication are

compromised.

December 1998: Human error shuts

San Francisco down. When a

construction crew overlooks a buried

powerline, their work causes a

switchboard blowout. The blowout

shuts two generators down. Across

49-square miles, elevators stop with

people inside. Trolleys, trains, electric

buses quit. Traffic lights fail. Airplanes

land elsewhere.

 “The more important something is

when it works, the more it can hurt you

when it fails,” said Sandian Ted Dellin,

who is researching electronics reliability.

What if the machine misfires?

What do we do if America seizes up?

DESIGN

2

Confidence by
At Last, a Sure Thing

 Enter surety science and engineering. It is an evolving discipline

designed to integrate safety, reliability,

and security into technologies across

the spectrum, from space exploration

to infrastructures. When applied to

technology, surety is the methodology

by which a system, any system, can

be designed to operate exactly as

planned every time in every circumstance. When applied to management,

surety acts as a philosophy by which

fail-safe decisions are made. In

essence, surety is a way of approaching

just about any systems-problem, an

approach that considers why and how

a system fails, then anticipates and

prevents such failures. Fifty years of

defense research at Sandia National

Laboratories has done the ground work.

Now Sandia is working more closely

with industry, universities, and much

of government to give surety a more

widespread application.

 Eric Bloch, a member of the Sandia

President’s Advisory Council (Bloch

works on the Council on Competitiveness in Washington, D.C.) has

endorsed surety science and engineering as “a roadmap for thinking about

high-level problems.”

 “We believe this is a much more

powerful tool than what's generally in

use today,” said Pace VanDevender.

As Sandia's chief information officer,

VanDevender sets corporate processes

and requirements and ensures the Labs’

information system is protected.

Consequence Determines Surety

 Since the 1940s, Sandia has conducted pioneering studies in safety,

reliability, and security.

 “In the 40s we had nuclear weapons,”

said Jim Rice, Sandia director of

Information Systems Engineering and

of lab-wide surety research. “And then

nuclear energy in the 70s. Recently

we tried to look at it all as a discipline

– all three components (safety, reliability, and security) optimized together.

It's a philosophy applied to systemsengineering problems.”

 Surety science and engineering may

be applied at four levels, depending

on the consequences of a system

failure. The greater the consequences,

the higher the surety level.

 Level I surety is primarily reactive.

Standard engineering is applied, and

designs are tested to ensure reliability.

Used for many manufactured goods,

level I is adequate when failure won't

create catastrophic consequences.

Typical level I surety measures include

reliability insurance, warranties, and

parts replacement.

 Level II is proactive, a step up from

reactive. Lives may be at risk, so

people intervene before a problem

occurs. For example, airports install

metal detectors to prevent highjackings.

Public schools do likewise to reduce

gang activity. Other examples of level

II surety measures include training and

certification for pilots.

 Level III surety is preventative.

Science and engineering attempt to

predict and reduce the potential for a

system to fail by redesigning the

system. Because auto accidents kill,

manufacturers incorporate seatbelts

and airbags – not as an add-on anymore, but – as an integral part of total

vehicle design. Other level III examples include automatic cooling systems

in nuclear reactors and other systems

built into aging nuclear weapons.

 Level IV surety, applied when failure

is unthinkable, is fundamental. A

system works in perfect harmony with,

not circumventing, the laws of nature.

Absolute surety is the rule here.

Modern nuclear weapons, for example,

are designed to function in accord with

natural law.

When applied to technology, surety is the methodology by which a system, any

system, can be designed to operate exactly as planned every time in

every circumstance. When applied to management, surety acts [ as a philosophy by which fail-safe decisions are made. [

3

SANDIA TECHNOLOGY

Sandia’s explosives-detection portal
 Initially, developing surety as a broad

discipline requires research in the hard

sciences (physics, chemistry, and

biology), as well as in mathematics,

engineering, and the social sciences.

Research investments are expected to

yield returns many times over in lives

saved and reduced design, production,

and maintenance costs for both defense

and commercial technologies.

Surety Nuts and Bolts

 Sandia has been a leader in developing the following key tools that enable

engineers to understand how things fail:

 Modeling and simulation use the

world's fastest computers to recreate a

given system, then simulate its exposure

to catastrophic conditions. Example: A

plane crash involving a

nuclear weapon.

 Risk-and-reliability

management began at

Sandia as safety studies

of nuclear weapons and

reactors. Risk is calculated through studies of

component- and systemreliability combined with

studies on human

reliability.

Applications –

and More Applications

 Though still a young field, surety

science and engineering is likely to

support applications and studies as

varied as physics and finance, as

different as the spread of fire and

disease. Surety may be philosophical

in principle, but its many applications

are grounded in practicality. Here is a

sampling of areas where, collaborating

with government, academia, and

industry, Sandia has forged advances.

Architectural Surety:

Earthquakes Don't Kill People –

Buildings Do

 Sandia's Architectural Surety program strives to enhance public safety,

ensure reliable structures, and increase

public awareness of the benefits associated with the new design or retrofits

of public, commercial, and private

facilities. The Labs have conducted

surety research because threats to

structures, from terrorism and natural

disasters to aging materials, are making

Americans nervous. Two examples:

• Whether unleashed by a hurricane or

a terrorist's bomb, flying glass converts

an elegant building into a killing field.

Surety research is studying fracture

configurations to develop glass that

breaks into slow-moving, sandlike

granules which are less harmful than

slivers and shards of conventional

glazings.

• Through modeling and simulation,

engineers can understand how fire might

behave based on floor plan and

materials, how best to evacuate a

building, and how to implement security

measures against bombings, such as

those of the World Trade Center in New

York and the Alfred P. Murrah Federal

Building in Oklahoma City.

(Continued on page 5.)

SANDIA, COMPAQ SET

WORLD RECORD IN LARGE

DATABASE SORTING

Just as scientists need very fast

number-crunching computers to

replace physical testing with

computer models, business people

need a corollary procedure – the

capacity to sort and manipulate

large amounts of data rapidly. In

a major step toward that goal,

Sandia has teamed with Compaq

Computer Corporation, the

world's highest-volume supplier

of personal computers, to sort

information three times faster than

the previous record, at approximately two-thirds the installed

cost of current techniques.

The Sandia cluster of computers

has sorted a terabyte of data – the

information contained in about a

million unabridged dictionaries –

in less than 50 minutes. The

previous record, on a sharedmemory supercomputer rather

than a cluster of industry-standard

computers, was 150 minutes.

Estimates suggest that in three

years, large-scale data storage

(called warehousing) will increase

from a 272-gigabyte average to

a predicted 6.5 terabytes, and from

a $15-billion to a $113-billion

market by 2002, according to

a marketing report from the

consulting firm Palo Alto

Management Group.

Contact: Carl Diegert

505-845-7193

e-mail: diegert@sandia.gov

NEWS

Notes

At every level the bottom line is understanding [ how things fail. [

4

SANDIA TECHNOLOGY

Computer simulation of an airplane fire
 Engineers can use architectural

surety to simulate threats, predict

outcomes, and design safer buildings

that behave predictably during

disasters. To manage risk and improve

structural design, Sandia's computer

simulations and material testing

address community and national

concerns about our buildings. Sandia

has been coordinating interactive

workshops, university courses,

seminars, and conferences to bring

architects, engineers, and other design

professionals together to work on

architectural surety issues.

Transportation Surety:

Ending the Fear of Flying

 Every year more and more Americans travel by airplane, making the

demand for user-friendly skies more

extreme. To meet President Clinton's

Safer Skies program goal of reducing

fatal accidents fivefold in the next

decade, Sandia has put surety awing.

 In the fall of 1997, the Federal

Aviation Administration chose Sandia

and eight universities to create an

Airworthiness Assurance Center for

Excellence. Now in the second year

of a three-year pilot program, the

Center is developing improved

maintenance, inspection, and repair

techniques; crashworthiness initiatives;

safer propulsion and fuel systems and

landing gears; and improved aircraft

materials. The Center combines top

expertise and cutting-edge software

tools to detect and correct underlying

problems before they set into motion

a chain of events that ends in disaster.

 Sandia's role focuses on developing

nondestructive inspection technologies,

along with providing structural-defect

samples, reliability assessments of new

technologies, and technology transfer

from the Center to the industrial sector.

“By targeting and preventing the

leading causes of fatalities and

injuries,” Vice President Al Gore has

said of the Safer Skies initiative, “by

expanding engine inspections and

by improving pilots' warning and

detection systems, we will significantly

reduce the number of plane

crashes and save ... lives.”

 Some of the causes of U.S. air

crashes that the Center is studying

include lost control (32 percent of fatal

accidents); runway incidents (12

percent); ice and snow (9 percent); and

windshear, sabotage, and highjacking

(each 3 percent).

 Another Sandia-FAA partnership

produced a portal that checks passengers and carry-on luggage for

explosives. Located inside an airport

terminal, the portal emits a puff of air

onto a person and baggage, and a

sensor scans the air for chemicals.

This device was tested recently at the

Albuquerque International Airport.

 Transportation-surety research is

applied also to nuclear weapons and

hazardous-materials transport, as well

as to railroad-transportation safety.

Electronics Surety:

A Key to Global Leadership

 Could surety science and engineering techniques promise defense

and economic superiority? Quite

possibly so.

 Defense superiority, Sandian Ted

Dellin told a national surety workshop

last fall (see sidebar page 9), depends

on reliable electronics. And affordable

economic leadership rests on sustaining

the electronics revolution, said Dellin,

deputy director of reliability at Sandia

and an adjunct professor at The

University of New Mexico.

[

Surety research is studying fracture configurations to

develop glass that breaks into slow-moving, sandlike granules

that are less harmful than slivers and

shards of conventional glazings. [

5

Architectural Surety project leader Rudy Matalucci

SANDIA TECHNOLOGY
 Defense research has led to numerous

microelectronics breakthroughs, many

of which have evolved into commercial

technologies. Thus, many U.S. defense

initiatives support economic stability.

 A problem, however, occurs when

microelectronics advances outpace

reliability developments that support

weapons and marketable products.

Level III surety, Dellin said, may

provide the solution whereby reliability

keeps up with invention. How? By

finding all sources of failure, developing

models that will predict these failures,

and then building reliability into the

design of technologies.

Life-Cycle Engineering:

Designing Affordable Products

Consumers Can Rely On

The life cycle of a product might be

compared to that of a living being

experiencing birth, life, and death. A

product is “born” when

designed and manufactured. It “lives” while it

functions. And it “dies”

when it breaks or is

replaced.

 Supported by the

Laboratory Directed

Research and Development fund, life-cycle

engineering, which serves

Sandia’s mission of

nuclear stockpile stewardship, has laid the

groundwork to manage life

cycles for many products

in the commercial sector

as well. The key lies in

predicting the effects of

time and stresses on materials and

systems. The result is affordable

products of superior quality that perform

and age predictably. In addition to

nuclear weapons stewardship, life-cycle

engineering has applications in

medicine, computing, air and space

travel, and in various other technologies

where failure is not

an option.

Infrastructure Surety:

The Heartbeat of a Nation

 Cripple infrastructure and you cripple

nations. Power, water, and energy

systems; public transportation systems;

air-traffic control; financial services and

communication all comprise

infrastructure, as do fire, medical, lawenforcement, and other complex

networks. Increasingly, infrastructure

systems are computer operated and

interconnected. The result is a fast,

effective “machine” that improves

quality of life for millions.

 But when the machine misfires, lives

may be imperiled. Whether by plan or

by mistake, an individual connected to

the Internet could bring these interdependent systems to a catastrophic halt.

Natural disasters have done so already.

 Research to protect the aging nuclear

stockpile and its underlying nuclear

infrastructure has yielded surety science

and engineering applications outside

the weapons complex. Through

modeling and simulation, Sandia has

recreated infrastructure breakdowns and

is developing a warning system to

predict – plus techniques to repair and

prevent – infrastructure breakdowns,

break-ins, and catastrophes.

 Crime may have America by the

throat, but Sandia surety engineers have

developed a pilot program to deter crime

NEWS

Notes

6

SANDIA TO DEVELOP CUSTOM

PENTIUM ® CHIP FOR SPACE &

DEFENSE NEEDS

Intel Corp. will provide a royaltyfree license for its Pentium®

processor design to Sandia for the

development of custom-made

microprocessors for U.S. space and

defense purposes. The agreement

saves taxpayers hundreds of

millions of dollars in microprocessor

design costs and provides the

federal government with a 10-fold

increase in processing power over

the highest-performing existing

technology.

Sandia, DOE's lead lab for

microelectronics research and

development, will develop a

custom, radiation-hardened

version of the Pentium processor

for use in satellites, space vehicles,

and defense systems. Radiation

hardening is required to

“immunize” systems and

applications from radiation, such

as cosmic rays, which affect the

reliability of conventional

electronics.

Secretary of Energy Bill Richardson

heralded the agreement as a

model of industry and government

cooperation. “We're proud to be

a part of this unique opportunity

to partner with Intel to significantly

advance the state of the art in

space and defense electronics,”

Richardson said during a news

conference announcing the

agreement.

Contact: Robert Blewer

505-844-6125

e-mail: blewerr@sandia.gov

A complete inertial guidance system is smaller than a paperclip

SANDIA TECHNOLOGY

(Continued on page 7.)
7

in schools. Tested two years ago in a

New Mexico high school and using

Sandia-developed technologies, the

program put cameras, sensors, and

metal detectors, along with a security

guard, on site and gave parents kits to

detect drug use.

 Although the pilot program cost

more than most schools can afford, it

identified these surety approaches to

safer schools: Greater use of

inconspicuous technologies, especially

those that maintain themselves; use of

artificial intelligence to customize

security solutions for individual

schools; and improved building design.

 Small wonder crime is a problem

when prevention tools and methods

haven’t changed much since horseand-buggy days. Meanwhile, crime

has developed new faces: In addition

to violent crime, we have white-collar

as well as cyber crime.

 In response, Sandia has developed

a “smart” gun that fires only for its

designated user. Gun manufacturer

Colt is commercializing the technology.

 Another offspring of Sandia’s

weapons experience, a team of experts

in bomb-disablement technologies, is

now available to the Federal Bureau

of Investigation and the Albuquerque

Police Department. President Clinton

recognized two of the team members

for dismantling a mail bomb found in

the Unabomber’s Montana cabin. The

evidence the two Sandians gathered

helped convict the Unabomber.

 Other Sandia technologies providing

surety science and engineering to the

criminal-justice system include an

evidence detector – a forensics tool

that detects crime-scene

The community-wide pilot

reduced theft by 98 percent;

vandalism and false alarms, each

by 90 percent; fights by 75 percent;

and truancy by 35 percent.

evidence such as blood, fingerprints,

and semen. The Albuquerque Police

Department crime lab is collaborating

on development of this technology.

 Another technology, a software

program called VRaptor, sets up a

hostage situation in virtual reality and

allows law-enforcement trainees to

identify and practice shooting at the

criminal, not the victim, during the

confusion, impaired visibility, and rapid

changes of a crime that is unfolding.

VRaptor research was supported by

LDRD funding.

 But more than focusing on individual

technologies, Sandia research focuses

on protecting the interdependencies of

our infrastructures. These increasing

interdependencies can cause an outage

in one infrastructure to cascade or

ripple through other infrastructures,

causing failures there too. Sandia

models interdependent networks, such

as power, transportation, and communications infrastructures, together as one.

Systems of economic infrastructure

are also being studied. Through

computer simulation, the goal is to

predict in real time the consequences

of national infrastructure failures.

 Infrastructure, however, is becoming

more and more global, and Sandia has

launched efforts to identify infrastructure requirements around the world.

These extend beyond services, to the

essentials for survival: water, food,

and clean air, for example. This effort

[

Whether by plan or by mistake, an individual connected

to the internet could bring these interdependent

systems to a catastrophic halt. Natural

disasters have done so already. [

A robotic system is used to dismantle munitions

SANDIA TECHNOLOGY
has brought Sandia surety experts

together with the Environmental

Protection Agency and the departments

of Energy and of Defense to develop

environmental surety.

Food Surety:

Smart Steaks Snitch if They Thaw

en Route to the Market

 Ever wonder if frozen food thawed

before it reached the store? That will

become a concern of the past with

Sandia’s patented food sensor. Placed

visibly on each food parcel, the

inexpensive device reveals a red “flag”

when the temperature of meat and other

foods rises above freezing. A “smart”

material tells the tale. The diameter

of a thread and less than

half an inch long, a thin

wire curls when

warmed above 32

degrees F and tears a

piece of green paper to

expose red paper

underneath. The

technology evolved

from solar research at

Sandia.

 “When there’s pressure from Washington

on food processors,

transporters, and

displayers to protect

consumers against

spoiled food, we have

a technology patented

to do just that,” said

Sandian David

Martinez, who co-developed the

technology with Professor Mo

Shahinpoor of The University of New

Mexico College of Engineering.

 This UNM-Sandia collaboration has

produced eight patents.

Nuclear Stewardship:

Always a Priority

 Surety science and engineering began

50 years ago in the defense sector and

grew from the need to know if nuclear

weapons and materials were used only

as intended, were safe in abnormal

environments, and secure in malevolent

circumstances. Surety remains a

keystone of nuclear stockpile and

energy stewardship. Storing, moving,

and processing plutonium and enriched

uranium, for instance, present a global

challenge, particularly when emerging

nuclear powers may be politically and

economically unstable.

 However, as a partner with the

Department of Energy, the Nuclear

Regulatory Commission, and other

national laboratories, Sandia has refined

a systems approach to nuclear safety

that can benefit the broad expanse of

modern life outside the defense sector.

This approach has roots in understanding how accidents – all kinds of

accidents – occur. In modeling and

simulation capabilities, materials

testing, and risk-management studies,

Sandia has the tools and experience to

recreate, in the safe and virtual world

of computers, events such as accidents

involving nuclear weapons. The Labs

then can study the causes and consequences, and ultimately, design a world

with greater safety, reliability, security

– and confidence – built in.

8

NEWS

Notes

RESEARCH FOCUSED ON

ECONOMICAL, LONGER-LASTING

LITHIUM ION BATTERIES

Efforts by a team of Sandians to

improve the lithium ion battery may

mean that one day soon people will

be driving affordable electric cars and

operating their CD players and cellular

phones on smaller, longer-lasting

batteries.

The research combines a new mixture

of metals to create the cathode

portion of the lithium ion battery – a

high-tech, environmentally friendly

electrical-energy-storage device.

“We've tried various combinations of

lithium (a light-weight metal) with

manganese, cobalt, nickel, chromium,

and aluminum and are making some

breakthroughs,” says Sandia inorganic

chemist Tim Boyle.

If the right combination of materials

can be found, lithium ion

rechargeable batteries may become

economical enough and have a long

enough run time to be practical to

power electric cars or replace existing

traditional lead-acid batteries. Lithium

ion batteries are commonly found in

laptop computers and camcorders.

Their use, however, is limited to small

electronic devices because of their

cost and safety concerns.

Contact: Tim Boyle

505-272-7625

e-mail: tjboyle@sandia.gov

SANDIA TECHNOLOGY
SURETY INSTITUTE:

An Enduring Forum

An American Institute for Surety

Science and Engineering is slated to

provide a clearinghouse for surety

information. It will link researchers

from government, academia, and

industry with one another as well as

with data and cutting-edge tools.

The Institute will drive surety science

and engineering as a discipline

applied to problems affecting

mainstream life and American

infrastructures. As applicable, the

Institute will house databases, web

sites, and a library, and will offer

awards for breakthroughs. It will

also support university courses,

technology transfer, and researchand-development partnerships.

Technological and theoretical

advances will be applied to solve

real-world problems, ranging from

economic to environmental issues

and much in between.

For more information, contact

Ted Dellin (505) 844-2044;

email: dellinta@sandia.gov.

Or Ray Bair (505) 296-3505;

email: bair@compuserve.com. Or visit

the Institute Web site at www.isse.org.

9

 Representatives from industry,

academia, and government

convened last fall in Washington,

D.C., to consider a new discipline

at the first-ever Surety Science

and Engineering Workshop.

Orchestrated by Sandia National

Laboratories and co-sponsored

by the U.S. Department of

Energy, National

Academy of

Engineering, and

National

Academy of

Sciences, the

workshop

explored the

methodology of

surety science

and engineering

and its potential

uses to address some of the

nation's most pressing problems.

 What united these challenges

was the need to predict and

prevent accidents and the

crippling consequences that

system failures cause. Many

Sandia researchers believe a new

discipline, called surety science

and engineering, has evolved

from their work to protect the

nation's nuclear stockpile. They

further believe the discipline can

be applied to many national and

global problems, such as

protecting our nation's critical

infrastructures, making our air

transportation system safer,

improving the reliability of

electronics, and even fighting

crime (see cover story).

 More than 100 experts from

government, industry, and

academia brainstormed on how

surety science and engineering

principles can be applied to

national problems and whether

it can be considered a new

discipline. Helping

to lead the

discussion was

William Wulf,

president of the

National Academy

of Engineering

(see Insights,

inside back cover);

Vic Reis, DOE

assistant secretary

for Defense Programs; and Pace VanDevender,

Sandia's chief information officer.

At the end of the workshop,

most attendees felt surety

science and engineering has

great potential, although they

determined much work remains

to be done.

 “The workshop gave us a

strong vote that surety science

and engineering does have broad

applicability beyond its original

roots in nuclear weapons,” said

Joan Woodard, workshop

chairperson and Sandia vice

president of Energy, Information,

and Infrastructure Technology

Division.

SURETY METHODOLOGY

WORTH DEVELOPING?

National Workshop Votes Yes

What united these challenges was the need to

predict and prevent accidents and the crippling [ consequences that system failures cause. [

SANDIA TECHNOLOGY

AMERICAN INSTITUTE

FOR SURETY SCIENCE

AND ENGINEERING

Neutron tube bake station
 Sandian Stephen Bespalko is

developing a technology to manage

ambiguous data. He calls this advance

mission surety for large-scale, realtime information systems. Bespalko's

concept allows researchers to backtrack and recover when designing

algorithms that must process data

containing errors.

 “Military and defense applications

must deal with ambiguous information

and/or data with errors,” said Bespalko.

He is creating a technology that

determines if decisions based on

incomplete or inconsistent data or data

with errors are still correct as new

information is received.

 “Say, you're driving to a city and

come to a fork in the road, and the

roadsign is partly covered,” Bespalko

said. “You're at a fork where everyone

always gets confused, and you take a

wrong turn because you only see half

the sign. You have to make a decision

at the intersection, but the decision

may be wrong because you don't have

enough information. Then you go the

wrong way until you see a sign that

makes it clear you have to turn around

and go back.”

 With Bespalko's software, the

engineer can design a system that can

go back. Recovery is built into the

technology, into the problem-solving

process.

 “Before, systems would ignore the

errors or eventually throw out the

results and start over when it became

clear the system had made a big

mistake,” Bespalko said. “And

sometimes you wouldn't know till you

drove to the wrong city.”

 Mission surety technology allows

the software to detect the wrong turn

as soon as possible, figure out how far

back the decision-making process has

to go, backtrack, then continue down

the correct path.

 Benefits include greatly reducing

development costs for certain

information-intensive defense systems.

Defense-system cost is a major

concern. The U.S. Air Force has set

a goal of reducing the cost of

developing command-and-control

systems by 90 percent. Mission surety

supports that goal.

 In addition to defense applications,

the software has many other uses,

particularly those involving spatial

data. With undergraduate assistant

Holly Dison from the University of

New Mexico mathematics department,

Bespalko is adapting his technology

to make less expensive and more

accurate models of roads and other

large components of the nation's

infrastructures.

 Mission surety is attracting attention

worldwide. Last fall Bespalko spoke

at a software-engineering symposium

in Zurich, Switzerland. He has also

addressed a National Academy of

Sciences meeting about transportation

uses as well as speaking to other

international audiences about his ideas.

 Laboratory Directed Research and

Development (LDRD) funding has

supported Bespalko's software

engineering advance. LDRD is an

exploratory research fund that supports

national security and enhances Sandia's

technology base. The LDRD program

is dedicated to early exploration and

exploitation of innovative concepts

that arise during laboratory work.

10

Navigating Computational

WRONG TURNS

Recovery is built into the technology, into the [ problem-solving process. [

SANDIA TECHNOLOGY
 Surety science and engineering

has its origin in Sandia's mission

of nuclear-stockpile stewardship,

which includes safeguarding

nuclear technologies as

well as the associated

infrastructure. Indeed, all

things nuclear must be

safe, reliable, and secure.

 Yet potentially catastrophic incidents, extending

back 40 years, have demonstrated that, despite layers

of well-studied precautions,

accidents still happen.

From the beginning, Sandia

has researched and refined surety science and

engineering to prevent further

such incidents. The following

examples demonstrate the

need for surety science and

engineering.

May 1957,

South of Albuquerque, N.M.

 A B-36 aircraft carrying an atomic

bomb approaches Kirtland Air Force

Base to land. When the plane is at an

altitude of 1,700 feet, the bomb drops

through and tears off the bomb-bay

doors. Although the attached parachute

opens, the weapon hits the ground with

enough speed to set off the highexplosive charge – but not the nuclear

component – destroying the bomb and

leaving a crater 12 feet deep and 25

feet in diameter.

 Radiological survey of the area

discloses no radioactivity beyond the

lip of the crater at which point the level

is 0.5 milliroentgens. There are no

health or safety problems. Both the

weapon and capsule were on board the

aircraft but the capsule was not inserted

for safety reasons. A nuclear detonation was not possible.

January 1966,

Palomares, Spain

 A B-52 and KC-135 collide during

a routine high-altitude air-refueling

operation. Both aircraft crash near

Palomares, Spain. Four of the 11

crewmen survive. The B-52 carried

four nuclear weapons. One is

recovered on the ground, and another

is recovered from the sea on April 7

after extensive search and recovery

efforts. Two of the weapons’ highexplosive materials explode on

impact with the ground, releasing

some radioactive materials. About

1,400 tons of slightly contaminated soil and vegetation are

removed to the United States for

storage at an approved site.

Representatives of the Spanish

government monitor the cleanup

operation.

January 1968,

Thule, Greenland

 On approach to land at Thule

Air Force Base, a B-52 carrying

four nuclear bombs catches on fire

and crashes during an attempt to

land. Six of seven crewmen eject

safely. Fire destroys all four weapons.

Some 237,000 cubic feet of contaminated ice, snow, and water, with crash

debris, are removed to an approved

storage site in the United States over

the course of a four-month operation.

Although an unknown amount of

contamination is dispersed by the crash,

environmental sampling shows normal

readings in the area after the cleanup

is completed. Representatives of the

Danish government monitor the

cleanup operation.

11

SANDIA TECHNOLOGY

Indeed, all things

nuclear must be

safe, reliable, [ and secure. [
NATIONAL SCHOOL SECURITY

TECHNOLOGY CENTER BASED

AT SANDIA

 Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., has

announced the establishment of a

new national center of expertise in

school security technology to be

based at Sandia National

Laboratories in Albuquerque.

Funding to establish the School

Security Technology Center is

included in the FY99 spending bill

as part of Department of Justice

appropriations. Sandia will be invited

to apply for $1.4 million.

 The initiative seeks to make the

nation's school grounds safer for

thousands of elementary, middle,

and high school students by

improving security on hundreds of

school campuses. Efforts to improve

school security have intensified

following recent shootings at

campuses across the country. The

Center will draw on Sandia's decades

of experience designing and

evaluating security systems as part

of its DOE mission to protect

materials vital to U.S. national

security.

 In the spring of 1996, Sandia

security technology experts first

recommended a set of measures to

address a variety of problems at

Belen High School in New Mexico.

Since then Sandia has advised

administrators at dozens of other

New Mexico schools and at more

than 100 schools nationwide.

Contact:

Mary Wilson Green

505-844-7746

e-mail: mgreen@sandia.gov

COMPUTER PROGRAM 'SEES'

BEYOND 3-D TO BETTER

CLASSIFY DATA

 A sophisticated new data

classification scheme is being

incorporated into the design of

Sandia National Laboratories' handheld “lab-on-a-chip” chemical sensor

system.

 The classification method – based

on human perception rather than

mathematical equations – is so

simple that it can be hard to grasp

for those who expect complexity.

 It is based on the human ability

to visually group real-world objects

seen near each other, says the

technique's principal developer,

Gordon Osbourn. “In the area of

visual perception, no computer has

ever matched a biological system –

for example, a dog's or a two-yearold's,” says the Sandia physicist.

 Osbourn says the program is

based on people's tendency to

group objects within the confines

of a dumbbell. The subconscious

mind sizes the dumbbell so that each

bell centers on a point. If no other

point intrudes in the space, one

considers the two points a group,

he says.

 But while biological visual systems

are limited to analyzing twodimensional plots or 3-D patterns,

Osbourn's system offers the

opportunity to “see” in many

“dimensions,” in effect crossanalyzing patterns among many data

sets. The same empirical judgments

made by human eyes are made by

a computer program to judge

closeness among the points of many

groups of data. The relations

between data may be too complex

for a human to see, but the same

empirical process used in human

decision-making is followed in the

computer program.

 Because the technique is based

on observation of how people

empirically group objects they see,

it is called VERI, for Visual-Empirical

Region of Influence. A patent is

expected to be issued this year.

Contact: Gordon Osbourn

505-844-8850

e-mail: gcosbou@sandia.gov

12

NEWS

Notes

“In the area of visual

perception, no computer

has ever matched a

biological system.”

SANDIA TECHNOLOGY

Gordon Osbourn
he world that we’re about to enter

is one that’s very different from the

world that we prepared for during the

Cold War. Then we knew who all the

players were and what the rules were.

Today, the dramatic reduction in the

cost of a cyber attack, the proliferation

of weapons of mass destruction, and

the blurring distinction between states

and terrorist groups make it extremely

difficult to know with certainty either

the rules or the players.

Indeed we may not

even know we’re

under attack. The

power grid fails on

the West Coast, the

911 number is

jammed in Atlanta,

and a bank is

having something

else happen in

Chicago. Are we

under attack?

There probably

isn’t a single

individual who

knows that those

things are going

on, much less has

any way of determining whether

they are a single

concerted attack.

The most challenging of the problems

in this new world arise because they

are not “just technical issues.” Theyare mixtures of technical issues with

people issues, with social issues, and

with policy issues. Whether the subject

is global economic interdependencies,

the cost and priority of fixing aging

infrastructures, or chemical or

biological threats – they all have

technical, social, and policy

components.

Furthermore, all this is happening in

a context in which technology is changing extremely rapidly. Indeed it is the

speed with which the technology is

changing (and our dependence on it

correspondingly increases) that lends

great urgency to addressing these challenges. The cost of an attack in cyber

space is falling dramatically, while the

consequences are rising just as rapidly.

The longer we delay in addressing the

problem, the worse it gets.

Our national leaders

are beginning to

grope with these

issues, but they are

both very complicated and very different

from those of the past.

We don’t have the

legal or conceptual

structure to deal with

some of them. For

example, in this new

world there is, and

must be, a blurring

between law

enforcement and

national security – yet

current law strictly

divides what our

military can do from

what our law

enforcement agencies

can do. As another

example, we have profound issues of

how to manage these new threats

without destroying the openness in our

society or violating the privacy of our

citizens – that is one of the fundamental

disputes in the debate over national

cryptographic policy, for example.

The Academies (National Academy of

Sciences, National Academy of

Engineering) provide independent

balance and authoritative advice to the

federal government. These are almost

always on policy-related issues with a

strong technical component. For

example, Presidential Directives 62

and 63 were written in response to the

report of the President’s Commission

on Critical Infrastructure Protection.

The directives call for the Academies

to convene a roundtable on the subject.

“Roundtable” is a term of art in the

Academy context. It’s a standing

committee that includes industry,

university, and government people.

Normally we exclude government

people from situations where we would

be giving advice, since we don’t want

the government giving advice to itself

and putting the imprimatur of the

Academy on that advice in the process

– so roundtables don’t provide advice

to the government. However, they do

provide a forum in which the issues

can be discussed, in which various

perspectives can be brought into play

and where we can decide whether we

need to spin out a study on a specific

issue.

When Pace VanDevender and Eric

Bloch came to see me about this

workshop on surety science and

engineering, I jumped at the chance to

host it here at the NAE. This is a

wonderful first step in what is going

to be a long journey, and it’s a long

journey on which we must move out

smartly. The technology of attack is

outpacing the technology of defense,

and the technology is moving at the

speed of Moore’s Law (doubling every

18 months). So this is an extremely

important meeting, and I’m delighted

that we could co-host it.

*Excerpted from talk given at Surety

Science and Engineering workshop.

(see page 9)

Dr. William Wulf, President,

National Academy of Engineering

T

SANDIA TECHNOLOGY

[

INSIGHTS

The power grid fails on theWest Coast, the 911 number is jammed in Atlanta, and a bank

is having something else happen in Chicago. Are we under attack?

by Dr. William Wulf, President, National Academy of Engineering

[

*