ref2014.d102413a **2011 2012**  **2013 2014** 

ReportAnnual Energy Outlook 2014 Scenarioref2014 Datekeyd102413a Release Date April 2014



## 57. Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Technology Type (thousands) **United States Technology Type**  **2011 2012**  **2013 2014** 
**New Car Sales 1/ Conventional Cars**  Gasoline ICE Vehicles 5867.1 6578.6 6800.2 7005.7 TDI Diesel ICE 85.1 184.3 204.0 227.4 Total Conventional Cars 5952.2 6762.9 7004.2 7233.1

**Alternative-Fuel Cars** Ethanol-Flex Fuel ICE 397.6 355.1 369.8 379.6 100 Mile Electric Vehicle 10.2 17.3 20.9 24.0 200 Mile Electric Vehicle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Plug-in 10 Gasoline Hybrid 0.0 17.5 19.5 30.1 Plug-in 40 Gasoline Hybrid 8.3 27.1 31.5 40.0 Electric-Diesel Hybrid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electric-Gasoline Hybrid 224.1 379.8 392.4 398.7 Natural Gas ICE 2.9 3.5 3.6 3.5 Natural Gas Bi-fuel 4.5 5.3 5.8 5.5 Propane ICE 1.3 1.8 4.0 4.8 Propane Bi-fuel 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5 Fuel Cell Gasoline 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuel Cell Methanol 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuel Cell Hydrogen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Alternative Cars 650.8 809.5 849.8 888.7

Percent Alternative Car Sales 9.86 10.69 10.82 10.94 **Total New Car Sales 6603.0** **7572.4 7854.0** **8121.8**
**New Light Truck Sales 2/ Conventional Light Trucks**  Gasoline ICE Vehicles 4299.64795.9 5088.7 5360.0 TDI Diesel ICE 33.8 24.8 32.9 44.6 Total Conventional Light Trucks 4333.44820.7 5121.6 5404.5**Alternative-Fuel Light Trucks**

Ethanol-Flex Fuel ICE 1246.0 1367.4 1388.0 1417.1 100 Mile Electric Vehicle 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 200 Mile Electric Vehicle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Plug-in 10 Gasoline Hybrid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Plug-in 40 Gasoline Hybrid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electric-Diesel Hybrid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electric-Gasoline Hybrid 31.3 23.7 24.8 25.7 Natural Gas ICE 5.1 5.6 6.3 7.0 Natural Gas Bi-fuel 9.1 10.1 10.8 11.5 Propane ICE 4.9 5.9 9.4 10.9 Propane Bi-fuel 23.0 24.8 27.9 32.1 Fuel Cell Gasoline 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuel Cell Methanol 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuel Cell Hydrogen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Alternative Light Trucks 1320.3 1438.6 1468.5 1505.7
Percent Alternative Light Truck Sales 23.35 22.98 22.28 21.79 **Total New Light Truck Sales 5653.7** **6259.3 6590.1** **6910.3**

**Percent Total Alternative Sales 16.08**  **16.25 16.05**  **15.93** EPACT Legislative Alternative Sales 95.77 106.89 114.93 118.47 ZEVP Legislative Alternative Sales 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
**Total Sales, Cars and Light Trucks** Conventional Gasoline 10166.811374.511888.912365.7 TDI Diesel 118.8 209.1 236.9 272.0 Flex-Fuel 1643.6 1722.5 1757.9 1796.7 Electric 11.1 18.4 22.1 25.3 Plug-in Electric Hybrid 8.3 44.5 51.0 70.1 Electric Hybrid 255.5 403.5 417.1 424.4 Gaseous (Propane and Natural Gas) 52.7 59.2 70.1 77.9 Fuel Cell 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 **Total Vehicles Sales 12256.7** **13831.7 14444.1** **15032.1**
Conventional Gasoline Microhybrids 14.7 19.0 21.2 43.5 TDI Diesel Microhybrids 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 **Total Alternative-Fueled Vehicle Sales 2104.7** **2476.2 2576.4** **2710.0**
2/ Includes personal and fleet light-duty trucks. ICE = Internal combustion engine. EPACT = Energy Policy Act of 1992. ZEVP = Zero emission vehicles from the low emission vehicle program. - - = Not applicable. Sources: 2011 and 2012 values derived using: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Describing Current and Potential Markets for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles, DOE/EIA-0604(96) (Washington, DC, March 1996); EIA, Alternatives to Traditional Transportation Fuels 2009 (Part II - User and Fuel Data), April 2011; 1/ Includes personal and fleet light-duty cars.and EIA, AEO2014 National Energy Modeling System run ref2014.d102413a. Projections: EIA, AEO2014

National Energy Modeling System run ref2014.d102413a.**2015 2016**  **2017 2018**  **2019 2020**  **2021 2022**  **2023**

Reference case

**2015 2016**  **2017 2018**  **2019 2020**  **2021 2022**  **2023**

7112.6 7304.1 7288.1 7089.1 7068.6 7073.47050.5 7019.5 6996.2 235.3 254.3 277.6 301.4 309.8 330.8 356.1 398.7 454.1 7347.9 7558.5 7565.7 7390.6 7378.3 7404.2 7406.7 7418.3 7450.4

386.7 397.6 397.7 392.5 400.6 391.6 394.0 403.4 390.8 29.2 18.3 16.6 20.3 14.3 14.0 15.3 18.6 21.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 29.8 32.9 27.9 29.9 24.1 23.4 23.9 25.6 27.6 47.7 47.6 50.4 48.8 51.0 49.6 47.3 50.9 52.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.6 4.6 8.0 399.6 408.6 405.1 397.0 407.2 411.1 421.4 437.4 462.0 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 2.2 4.4 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 910.1 922.3 916.6 909.5 917.6 910.2 923.6 960.7 982.6

11.02 10.88 10.81 10.96 11.06 10.95 11.09 11.47 11.65 **8258.0 8480.8** **8482.3 8300.1** **8296.0 8314.5** **8330.3 8378.9** **8433.0**

5709.2 5962.1 5926.8 5816.6 5674.8 5617.0 5573.8 5489.4 5485.7 56.1 73.1 91.8 115.9 113.2 121.1 120.6 117.9 120.6 5765.3 6035.1 6018.6 5932.5 5788.0 5738.1 5694.45607.3 5606.31413.0 1450.9 1445.5 1447.8 1454.1 1398.4 1404.6 1435.0 1384.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 26.5 28.3 29.3 35.1 35.6 36.1 37.0 37.9 39.4 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 11.6 12.2 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.1 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.2 29.8 31.9 32.0 32.1 31.5 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.3 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 1502.3 1546.0 1540.0 1549.0 1554.9 1498.3 1505.9 1536.9 1488.1

20.67 20.39 20.37 20.70 21.18 20.71 20.91 21.51 20.98 **7267.6 7581.1** **7558.6 7481.5** **7342.9 7236.5** **7200.3 7144.2** **7094.5**

**15.54 15.37**  **15.31 15.58**  **15.81 15.49**  **15.64 16.09**  **15.91** 120.56 126.40 126.27 124.65 122.92 121.84 121.83 121.61 121.47 239.96 244.22 239.95 358.61 353.60 348.57 363.77 358.66 353.39

12821.813266.213214.912905.812743.412690.512624.412508.912482.0 291.4 327.4 369.4 417.3 422.9 451.9 476.7 516.6 574.8 1799.7 1848.5 1843.2 1840.2 1854.7 1790.0 1798.7 1838.3 1775.6 30.8 19.8 18.0 21.7 15.7 15.4 16.8 20.1 23.2 77.5 80.8 78.6 79.1 75.4 73.3 71.5 76.9 80.4 426.1 436.9 434.6 432.6 443.4 447.9 460.1 480.0 509.4 75.6 79.6 79.5 78.9 77.6 76.4 76.6 76.6 76.5 2.7 2.9 2.8 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.5 **15525.6 16061.9** **16040.9 15781.6** **15638.9 15550.9** **15530.6 15523.1** **15527.5**

88.0 110.7 188.0 292.0 696.7 1112.2 1585.7 2270.8 3047.3 1.3 1.9 4.6 8.9 18.6 41.1 65.7 110.1 172.6 **2791.8 2906.4** **3014.0 3167.8** **3592.3 3972.7** **4491.9 5285.0** **6092.8**

Administration (EIA), Describing Current and Potential Markets for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles, DOE/EIA-0604(96) (Washington, DC, March 1996);**2024 2025**  **2026 2027**  **2028 2029**  **2030 2031**  **2032**

**2024 2025**  **2026 2027**  **2028 2029**  **2030 2031**  **2032**

6970.7 7037.47087.7 7198.8 7249.0 7261.47278.9 7290.7 7307.3 498.6 555.4 570.7 580.1 582.2 579.9 579.0 577.5 576.9 7469.3 7592.8 7658.47778.9 7831.2 7841.3 7857.9 7868.1 7884.2

385.1 389.1 392.6 400.8 406.4 411.0 415.8 417.5 415.9 25.2 29.5 35.8 43.7 51.4 58.7 65.2 70.6 75.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 30.9 46.1 48.6 50.8 51.6 51.3 50.3 52.9 55.3 55.4 64.9 73.7 86.0 96.6 103.1 105.5 111.7 116.6 11.0 15.3 18.8 21.9 24.1 25.7 26.9 28.0 28.8 482.0 530.5 559.7 594.3 621.2 641.2 657.4 671.6 683.3 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 1010.3 1096.3 1150.5 1219.5 1273.6 1313.4 1343.8 1375.2 1398.4

11.91 12.62 13.06 13.55 13.99 14.35 14.60 14.88 15.07 **8479.6 8689.2** **8808.9 8998.4** **9104.8 9154.7** **9201.7 9243.3** **9282.6**

5479.45532.1 5630.8 5620.2 5620.2 5592.6 5574.8 5566.9 5568.9 127.8 120.5 121.6 120.7 119.2 117.7 116.6 115.9 115.7 5607.2 5652.6 5752.45740.9 5739.45710.3 5691.45682.8 5684.61364.6 1381.5 1410.9 1418.8 1432.6 1443.6 1456.5 1459.6 1449.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 40.8 43.7 46.6 48.7 50.5 51.9 53.0 54.0 54.7 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 11.5 11.6 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 30.1 30.4 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 1469.9 1490.5 1524.6 1535.1 1551.2 1563.6 1578.0 1582.2 1573.3

20.77 20.87 20.95 21.10 21.28 21.50 21.71 21.78 21.68 **7077.0 7143.1** **7276.9 7276.0** **7290.6 7274.0** **7269.3 7265.0** **7257.8**

**15.94 16.34**  **16.63 16.93**  **17.23 17.51**  **17.74 17.91**  **17.97** 121.54 123.50 125.58 126.76 127.57 127.72 127.98 128.21 128.38 391.32 392.93 399.10420.88424.28425.35 428.66429.78430.76

12450.112569.512718.512819.012869.212853.912853.712857.512876.2 626.3 675.9 692.3 700.7 701.4 697.7 695.6 693.4 692.6 1749.7 1770.5 1803.5 1819.6 1839.0 1854.5 1872.3 1877.0 1865.6 27.0 31.5 38.0 46.2 54.1 61.6 68.2 73.8 78.7 86.8 111.6 122.8 137.5 148.9 155.2 156.6 165.5 172.8 533.8 589.5 625.1 665.0 695.9 718.9 737.4 753.6 767.0 76.5 77.4 79.0 79.6 80.0 80.0 80.1 80.3 80.6 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 **15556.6 15832.3** **16085.8 16274.3** **16395.4 16428.7** **16471.1 16508.3** **16540.5**

3766.0 5245.2 5297.0 5357.1 5385.45385.9 5391.7 5396.5 5406.3 226.0 338.6 347.5 352.5 353.4 351.8 351.0 350.0 349.6 **6872.6 8508.0** **8664.3 8812.4** **8911.5 8960.7** **9009.1 9047.3** **9070.6 2033**  **2034 2035**  **2036 2037**  **2038 2039**  **2040**

**2033 2034**  **2035 2036**  **2037 2038**  **2039 2040** **2012-2040**

7315.1 7362.2 7408.5 7453.1 7518.7 7581.1 7638.7 7685.7 0.6% 573.5 581.7 585.2 596.1 603.0 609.7 618.3 629.0 4.5% 7888.6 7943.9 7993.7 8049.2 8121.6 8190.8 8257.1 8314.7 0.7%

412.4 411.8 409.4 409.5 410.5 412.0 414.9 417.3 0.6% 79.2 83.9 86.7 89.6 92.6 95.6 99.1 102.8 6.6% 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 36.6% 57.4 60.0 62.2 64.3 66.4 68.5 70.7 73.0 5.2% 119.0 120.6 120.0 120.8 121.8 122.4 123.2 124.0 5.6% 29.4 30.2 31.1 32.0 32.9 33.7 34.5 35.6 - - 691.4 703.4 711.8 720.2 730.2 739.4 749.2 758.6 2.5% 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 1.1% 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 0.8% 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.2 4.6% 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 - - 1412.2 1433.5 1445.1 1460.5 1479.0 1496.5 1517.0 1537.2 2.3%

15.18 15.29 15.31 15.36 15.41 15.45 15.52 15.60 1.4% **9300.8 9377.4** **9438.8 9509.7** **9600.7 9687.3** **9774.1 9851.9**  **1%**

5567.6 5559.2 5589.9 5604.3 5629.2 5656.9 5655.2 5638.3 0.6% 114.6 116.2 116.6 119.6 120.9 122.3 123.8 125.4 6.0% 5682.2 5675.45706.5 5723.9 5750.1 5779.2 5779.1 5763.7 0.6%1432.7 1416.3 1402.6 1397.0 1393.2 1392.3 1391.9 1387.6 0.1% 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - 55.2 55.8 56.3 56.8 57.4 58.0 58.4 58.6 3.3% 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 1.0% 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.8 0.6% 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 3.1% 30.8 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 31.1 31.1 31.0 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 - - 1556.9 1541.3 1528.6 1523.9 1521.3 1521.7 1522.2 1518.7 0.2%

21.51 21.36 21.13 21.03 20.92 20.84 20.85 20.85 -0.3% **7239.1 7216.7** **7235.1 7247.8** **7271.4 7300.9** **7301.3 7282.4**  **1%**

**17.95 17.93**  **17.83 17.81**  **17.78 17.77**  **17.80 17.84**  **0%** 128.32 128.59 129.16 129.73 130.53 131.36 131.91 132.23 0.8% 430.87432.60434.79437.13 440.30443.48446.01447.85 - -

12882.712921.412998.413057.413147.813238.013294.013323.9 0.6% 688.1 698.0 701.9 715.7 723.9 732.0 742.1 754.4 4.7% 1845.1 1828.2 1812.0 1806.4 1803.7 1804.3 1806.8 1805.0 0.2% 82.7 87.4 90.3 93.3 96.4 99.4 103.0 106.8 6.5% 177.3 181.5 183.1 186.0 189.2 191.9 194.9 198.1 5.5% 776.1 789.5 799.3 809.1 820.6 831.1 842.2 852.9 2.7% 80.6 80.9 81.4 81.9 82.6 83.4 84.0 84.5 1.3% 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.7 - - **16539.9 16594.1** **16673.9 16757.4** **16872.1 16988.2** **17075.4 17134.2**  **1%**

5410.45435.1 5468.2 5496.6 5539.45580.9 5613.0 5635.6 22.5% 347.5 352.5 354.5 361.3 365.4 369.5 374.7 381.0 29.8% **9067.6 9107.8** **9143.7 9196.7** **9263.6 9331.2** **9394.4 9445.8**  **5%**