The Summary Costs sheet provides the incremental volumes over which the costs are being calculated along with the costs of three scenarios:

1) The entire change in the advanced standard is met with soybean oil biomass-based diesel 2) The entire change in the advanced standard is met with sugarcane ethanol from Brazil 3) The entire change in the non-advanced renewable fuel volumes is met with corn ethanol Details on each of these scenarios can be found in their respective sheets. This spreadsheet contains the data inputs and calculations performed by EPA to calculate illustrative costs for the 2015 and 2016 proposed standards. More information on the methodology can be found in the "Memo to the docket on illustrative cost impacts of the proposed annual RFS2 standards, 2014-2017"The Summary Costs sheet provides the incremental volumes over which the costs are being calculated along with the costs of three scenarios: This spreadsheet contains the data inputs and calculations performed by EPA to calculate illustrative costs for the 2015 and 2016 proposed standards. More information on the methodology can be found in the "Memo to the docket on illustrative cost impacts of the proposed annualVolumes (million gallons) **2013 Final Standards**  **2014 Proposed**

**Standards 2015 Proposed** 

**Standards** Cellulosic biofuel 6 33 104 BBD 1,280 1,630 1,700 Advanced Gap 824 1,017 1,096 Non-advanced renewable fuel 13,800 13,250 13,400 Total Advanced 2,750 2,680 2,900 Total 16,550 15,930 16,300

**All Sugarcane** 

### 2,680 2,900
**All BBD*** 

### 1,787 1,933
13,250 13,400 *"All BBD" Advanced Volumes divided by 1.5 to reflect the fact volumes needed to meet the standard in this scenario would require 2/3 of the physical gallons vs. sugarcane based on the energy value of biodiesel. **Advanced**

**Non-advanced renewable fuel** 

## Volumes (million gal) **2015 Proposed Volumes**  **2014 Proposed Volumes** **2016 Proposed**

**Standards 2014 Difference** 

**(2014 - 2013) 2015 Difference** 

**(2015 - 2014) 2016 Difference** 

**(2016-2015) 2016 Alternate (2016-**  **2014)** 211 

### 27 71 107 178 1,800 

### 350 70 100 170 1,389 

### 193 79 293 372 14,000 

### (550) 150 600 750 3,400 

### (70) 220 500 720 17,400 

### (620) 370 1,100 1,470



### Low Price **High Price** 3,400 220 500 $228 $615
2,267 147 333 $218 $229
14,000 150 600 $122 $138 *"All BBD" Advanced Volumes divided by 1.5 to reflect the fact volumes needed to meet the standard in this scenario would require 2/3 of the physical gallons vs. sugarcane based on the energy value of biodiesel. 

# Illustrative Costs of 2015 and 2016 Proposed Standards

**Volumes (million gal) 2015**  **2016 Difference (2016-2015)**  **2015 Difference (2015 - 2014)**  **2016 Proposed Volumes** 

### Low Price **High Price Low Price**  **High Price**

$424 $1,303 $610 $1,877 $483 $697 $695 $1,003 $348 $541 $435 $676 *"All BBD" Advanced Volumes divided by 1.5 to reflect the fact volumes needed to meet the standard in this scenario would require 2/3 of the physical gallons vs. sugarcane based on the energy value of biodiesel. 

## 2016 **Costs (million $) 2016 Alternate** lbs Soybean oil/gal biodiesel 7.55

Soybean Oil Costs (cents/lb)

**Low** $0.32 **High** $0.32 **Low** $0.30 **High** $0.33 *We take WASDE's 2014/2015 marketing year projections to be representative of 2015 prices, and the 2015/2016 marketing year projections to be representative of 2016 prices **2016 here equals baseline 2015/2016 WASDE + Price impact calculated for marginal 2016 volumes + Price impact calculated for marginal 2015 volumes

**Low High**  **Low** Soyoil cost ( **WASDE** ) 2.59 $ 2.59

$ 2.81

$ Net operating costs (other operating costs net glycerin value) 0.50 $ 0.47

$ 0.50

$ Net operating return 0.10 $ Total Cost of Fuel (Vol) 3.09 $ 3.16

$ 3.31

$ Total Cost of Fuel (DGE) 3.39 $ 3.46

$ 3.62

$ **Soybean Oil-Biodiesel Price Relationship 2015**  **2016**
Increase in soybean oil per gal increase in biodiesel (cents/lb/gal) 0.00000001600 0.00000001600 Rate of Price Increase ($/gal) 0.00000000121 0.00000000121 Change in # of gallons biodiesel in Advanced 146,666,667 333,333,333
Total Change in Soybean Oil($/gal) 0.18 $ 0.40

$ **Wholesale Diesel ($/gal) 2015**  **2016 STEO (May 2015)**  $1.90 $2.17

**Low High**  **Low High** 

$1.48 $1.56 $1.45 $2.09

**Soybean Oil Biomass-Based Diesel Costs**

**2015 2015**  **2016**

**2016** 2014/2015* 2015/2016* **WASDE (May 2015)** 2015
2016 WASDE + Price Impacts** 

**Difference between Soy Oil BBD and Diesel per DGE Source:** 

**Low** 0.343

$ http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf **High** 0.343

$ **Low** 0.372

$ **High** 0.402

$ *We take WASDE's 2014/2015 marketing year projections to be representative of 2015 prices, and the 2015/2016 marketing year projections to be representative of 2016 prices **2016 here equals baseline 2015/2016 WASDE + Price impact calculated for marginal 2016 volumes + Price impact calculated for marginal 2015 volumes **Source: High**  http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/outreach/publications/2014/FAPRI_MU_Report_02_14.pdf 3.03 $ 0.47 $ 0.39 $ 3.89 $ 4.26 $ **Source:** http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/dbs/pdffiles/13sr108.pdf

**Source:** http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf **WASDE + Price Impacts**http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/outreach/publications/2014/FAPRI_MU_Report_02_14.pdf

http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/dbs/pdffiles/13sr108.pdfHigh and low daily prices from OPIS between Jan 1, 2014 and May 25, 2015

**OPIS Low 1.70**  **$** 30-Mar-15 **OPIS High 2.88**  **$** 24-Mar-14 **Source: Freight Cost**  $0.14 See "ITC_U.S. Brazilian Ethanol Imports_Provided 3.2.2015.xlsx" in the docket

**OPIS Low OPIS High**  **Landed Cost of Fuel** $1.85 $3.02 **Cost of Fuel per BTU** $2.77 $4.53 **Source: Wholesale Gasoline ($/gal)**  **2015 2016**  http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf **STEO (May 2015)** $1.73 $1.92

**2016 Low**  **High Low**  **High**

$1.04 $2.80 $0.85 $2.61 **Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol Costs**

**2015 Difference between Corn Ethanol and Gasoline per GGE** See "ITC_U.S. Brazilian Ethanol Imports_Provided 3.2.2015.xlsx" in the docket

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdfGal Corn Etoh/bu Corn 2.8

Corn Costs ($/bu)

**Low** $3.55 **High** $3.75 **Low** $3.20 **High** $3.80 *We take WASDE's 2014/2015 marketing year projections to be representative of 2015 prices, and the 2015/2016 marketing year projections to be representative of 2016 prices **2016 here equals baseline 2015/2016 WASDE + Price impact calculated for marginal 2016 volumes + Price impact calculated for marginal 2015 volumes **FAPRI-MU Cost Estimates (2015 Briefing Book)** Dry Mill ethanol costs, returns

**Low High**  **Low** DDG Value (+) (0.43) $ (0.43)

$ (0.44)

$ Corn Oil Value (+) (0.04) $ (0.04)

$ (0.06)

$ Corn Cost **(WASDE)** 1.28 $ 1.35

$ 1.20

$ Fuel and Electricity Cost 0.20 $ 0.20

$ 0.18

$ Other Operating Costs 0.34 $ 0.34

$ 0.35

$ Net Operating Return 0.35 $ 0.35

$ 0.44

$ Total Cost of Fuel (Vol) 1.70 $ 1.77

$ 1.67

$ Total Cost of Fuel (GGE) 2.55 $ 2.65

$ 2.50

$ **Corn Etoh-Corn Price Relationship 2015**  **2016** Increase in corn price per gal increase in ethanol (cents/bu/gal) 0.00000002100 0.00000002100 Rate of Price Increase ($/gal) 0.00000000008 0.00000000008 Number of gallons corn 150,000,000 600,000,000 Total Change in Price Corn($/bu) 0.03 $ 0.13

$ Total Change in Price Corn($/gal) 0.01 $ 0.05

$ **Wholesale Gasoline ($/gal) 2015**  **2016 STEO (May 2015)**  $1.73 $1.92

**Low High**  **Low High** 

0.81 $ 0.92 $ 0.58

$ 0.90

$ 2015
2016**

**Difference between Corn Ethanol and Gasoline per GGE Corn Ethanol Costs** 

**2016 2015** 

**2015 2016**  2014/2015* 2015/2016* **WASDE (May 2015) WASDE + Price Impacts** **Source:**

**Low** $3.58 http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf **High** $3.78 **Low** $3.36 **High** $3.96 *We take WASDE's 2014/2015 marketing year projections to be representative of 2015 prices, and the 2015/2016 marketing year projections to be representative of 2016 prices **2016 here equals baseline 2015/2016 WASDE + Price impact calculated for marginal 2016 volumes + Price impact calculated for marginal 2015 volumes **Source:** http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/FAPRI-MU-Report-01-15.pdf

**High** (0.44) $ (0.06) $ 1.41 $ 0.18 $ 0.35 $ 0.44 $

1.88 $ 2.82 $ **Source:** http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/dbs/pdffiles/13wp543.pdf

**Source:** http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf **WASDE + Price Impacts**http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/FAPRI-MU-Report-01-15.pdf

http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/dbs/pdffiles/13wp543.pdf**Fuel Type Unit of**  **Measure BTUs/Gal**  **Gallon Equivalent**  **B100/Diesel BTU,**

**Etoh/Gasoline BTU**

Gasoline (regular) gallon 114,100 1.00 gallon Diesel #2 gallon 129,500 0.88 gallons Biodiesel (B100) gallon 118,300 0.96 gallons 0.913513514 Biodiesel (B20) gallon 127,250 0.90 gallons Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) cubic foot 900 126.67 cu. ft. Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) gallon 75,000 1.52 gallons Propane (LPG) gallon 84,300 1.35 gallons Ethanol (E100) gallon 76,100 1.50 gallons 0.666958808 Ethanol (E85) gallon 81,800 1.39 gallons Methanol (M100) gallon 56,800 2.01 gallons Methanol (M85) gallon 65,400 1.74 gallons Electricity kilowatt hour (Kwh) 3,400 33.56 Kwhs **Energy Content Table Percent BTU** 

**Difference Adjustment**  **Factor Biodiesel,**  **Ethanol**

0.086486486 1.09

0.333041192 1.50