### APPENDIX 10

- D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE USING

ALTERNATIVE GROWTH S CENARIOS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10

- D.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ............................... 10

- D

- 1

10

- D.2 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCEN ARIO

.................. 10

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- 2

10

- D.3 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCEN ARIO

................... 10

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- 3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10

- D.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic

Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

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- 2

Table 10

- D.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, High Economic

Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

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- 3

Table 10

- D.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic

Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

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- 3

Table 10

- D.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic

Growth Scenario

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

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- 4

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 10

- D.1.1 Total Housing Stock Forecast Under Alternative AEO2013 Economic

Growth Scenarios

................................ ................................ ..................... 10

- D

- 1 Figure 10

- D.1.2 Average Residential Electricity Price Forecasts under Alternative

AEO2013 Economic Growth Scenarios

................................ .................. 10

- D

- 2

10

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- i

### APPENDIX 10

- D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE USING

ALTERNATIVE GROWTH S CENARIOS

10

- D.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix presents national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV)

results using inputs from alternative economic growth scenarios . The scenarios use the energy price and housing starts forecasts in the High Economic Growth case and the Low E conomic

Growth case fr om EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 201 3 ( AEO 2013 )

. 1



### Figure 10

- D.1.1 and Figure 10

- D.1.2 show the forecasts for total housing stock and

residential electricity prices u nder the different economic growth scenarios. AEO201 3 provides a

forecast to 2040. To estimate the trend after 20 40 , DOE followed guidelines that the EIA had provided to the Federal Energy Management Program, which called for using the average rate of

ch an ge for electricity during 2025

– 20 40

.

Figure 10

- D.1.1 T otal Housing Stock Forecast Under Alternative

AEO2013 Economic Growth Scenarios 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180Total Housing Stock (millions)

Reference High Low

10

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- 1

### Figure 10

- D.1.2 Average Residential Electricity Price For ecasts
under Alternative AEO2013 Economic Growth

Scenarios

10

- D.2 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC G ROWTH SCENARIO

Table 10

- D.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic Growth

Scenario

CSL ≤20.00 pints/day 20.01

- 30.00 pints/day 30.01

- 35.00 pints/day 35.01

- 44.99 pints/day ≥45.00 pints/day ≤ 8ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

home) >8ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

home) All

1 0.20 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.24

2 0.23 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.35

3 0.27 0.06 0.15 0.14 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.64

4 0.32 0.15 0.20 0.19 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.92 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25Electricity Price Trend (2012=100) 

## AEO 2013 Electricity Projection (National)

Reference Case High Low

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### Table 10

- D.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, High Economic

Growth Scenario

Price

Trend Product Class (pints/day) Candidate Standard Levels

C SL1 C SL 2 C SL 3 C SL 4

3% (billion 2012$) ≤20.00 1.49 1.67 1.93 2. 31

20.01

- 30.00 0.0 4 0. 23 0.41 1. 03

30.01

- 35.00 0.0 4 0. 34 1.01 1. 35

35.01

- 44.99 0.00 0. 12 0.98 1. 34

≥45.00 0. 13 0.1 5 0.15 0. 24
≤8ft 3 Case Volume (Whole

- home) 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.01 0.0 1

>8 ft 3 Case Volume (Whole

- home) 0.01 0.0 3 0.0 3 0.0 3

7% (billion 2012$) ≤20.00 0. 63 0. 71 0. 81 0.96

20.01

- 30.00 0.0 2 0.1 0 0. 18 0. 43

30.01

- 35.00 0.0 2 0. 15 0. 42 0. 56

35.01

- 44.99 0.00 0. 05 0. 40 0. 56

≥45.00 0.0 5 0.0 6 0. 06 0. 09

≤8ft 3 Case Volume (Whole

- home) 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

>8 ft 3 Case Volume (Whole

- home) 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01



### 10

- D.3 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECON OMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

Table 10

- D.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic Growth

Scenario

CSL ≤20.00 pints/day 20.01

- 30.00 pints/day 30.01

- 35.00 pints/day 35.01

- 44.99 pints/day ≥45.00 pints/day ≤8ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

home) >8ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

home) All

1 0.19 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.23

2 0.22 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.34

3 0.25 0.06 0.14 0.14 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.61

4 0.31 0.14 0.19 0.18 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.87

10

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### Table 10

- D.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits

, Low Economic

Growth Scenario

Price

Trend Product Class (pints/day) Candidate Standard Levels

C SL1 C SL 2 C SL 3 C SL 4

3% (billion 2012$) ≤20.00 1. 37 1.54 1.78 2. 13

20.01

- 30.00 0.0 4 0 .21 0 .38 0 .94

30.01

- 35.00 0.0 4 0. 31 0.92 1.24

35.01

- 44.99 0.00 0. 11 0.90 1.23

≥45.00 0. 11 0.1 4 0.1 4 0.2 2
≤8ft 3 Case Volume (Whole

- home) 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1

>8 ft 3 Case Volume (Whole

- home) 0.01 0.0 2 0.0 2 0.0 3

7% (billion 2012$) ≤20.00 0. 59 0. 66 0. 76 0.90

20.01

- 30.00 0.0 2 0. 09 0. 17 0. 40

30.01

- 35.00 0.0 2 0. 14 0. 39 0. 52

35.01

- 44.99 0.00 0. 05 0. 37 0. 52

≥45.00 0.0 4 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 8

≤8ft 3 Case Volume (Whole

- home) 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

>8 ft 3 Case Volume (Whole

- home) 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01

10

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- 4

### REFERENCES

1 

### U.S. Department of Energy

- Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy

Outlook 201 3 with Projections to 20 40

, 201 3 . Washington, DC. Report Number: DOE/EIA

- 0383(201 3 )

.


### < http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/ >

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