Futures Research Podcast for March 2011

Beat Intro
Voiceover
00.08	This is the Beat - a podcast series that keeps you in the know about the latest 
community policing topics facing our nation.

 Interview
Katherine McQuay
00.15	With me today is David Dial, President of the Society of Police Futurists 
International.  And Mr. Dial, can you tell us what this concept of futures research 
is all about?  
 
David Dial
00.26	Futures research is really a combination of systems analysis and operations 
research.  The principle aim of futures research is to facilitate long-range 
planning.  Unlike traditional research disciplines, futures research focuses on 
societal problems.  The intent is to discover three different alternatives - the 
thing that is most likely to occur, the worst case scenario, and the best case 
scenario.  Futurists believe strongly that the decisions we make today can mold 
the future and can change it in some way and it can also help us prepare for the 
future in ways that we may not prepare for if we don't do strategic planning.  

	For example if police departments in the early 1990's recognized the explosion in 
the technical revolution, they may have been able to purchase equipment and 
have their officers trained so that they could better handle the increase in 
cybercrime and then the investigations that are enhanced by technology.  If they 
fail to do so, the corollary to that is true.  And really, futurists look way beyond 
the budget cycle - they look ten to twenty years into the future.

Katherine
01.45	So what is the future of policing now?

David
01.50	Right now, the future of policing involves diminished personnel resources.  To 
cope with that we must all understand what sort of changes that will be 
sustainable and create the best possible outcome for our communities.  We know 
that we can no longer treat crime problems with saturation patrols and manpower 
intensive surveillances.  Instead, we have expanded our outreach to other 
governmental and law enforcement agencies, gathering data about criminal 
threats and activities in our region so that we can strategically deploy the 
personnel resources we have available.  So the future really means using 
technology in the future to make us work smarter and deliver the resources that 
we have in the most effective manner possible.
Katherine
02.31	What are some of the challenges you see for us ahead?

David
02.34	One is that there's going to be really an exponential increase in cybercrime.  
Many of the challenges that we have are related to the economic downturn and 
the ongoing diminished personnel resources we have.  Since our resources are not 
likely to return to previous levels, we're going to need to rely more on technology 
to assist with investigations, staffing and assignment decisions.  We need people 
in our organizations who are well-trained and who can work smarter than we 
have in the past.   In this rapidly changing environment, we must remember that 
training is a perishable skill and it's going to require training throughout their 
career.  No longer will somebody be able to come into the profession, have their 
recruit training and go out and serve 20 or 30 years on the beat.  They're going to 
have to have constant training to deal with the ever-changing environment that 
we have.

	From an opportunity standpoint, we have an opportunity for greater use of 
technology to solve crimes and forge closer community ties.  We have 
opportunities to inform our communities about the dangers they may or may not 
be aware of and such things as social networking - a lot of them don't even 
realize how bad it can be when they put in information about themselves for 
everyone in the world to look at.

	Technology will help us with weapons development and management and 
deployment of personnel.  There will be opportunities to forge different and 
stronger relationships with union and management in the future.  Right now 
there's several people that are having a very difficult time coping with the change 
and the layoffs and the feeling that maybe law enforcement is not the secure 
career that they thought it was.  In the future, I think you will see that they will 
understand that they just cannot fight in the way that they have in the past and 
that you may see stronger relationships form.  And I think there will of course be 
opportunities for greater regionalization and collaboration.

Katherine
04.43	Does community policing fit in to this at all?

David
04.46	Greater than ever!  Our community policing efforts over the last two decades 
have really led to great partnerships with all kinds of different groups in our 
communities - the school districts, the businesses, the public, the corporate 
offices, other government agencies.  And as a result, we've been able to decrease 
crime significantly in the last two decades.  We will have to continue to keep that 
trusting relationship between us and the community in order to best solve these 
crimes.  
	And one of the things that we have to do is to reeducate the public a little bit 
about some of the challenges we face and gain an understanding from them 
about what we can and what we cannot do in the future.

Katherine
05.39	So if I'm running a law enforcement agency, how can I use the research?  How 
should I let that impact my planning for the future?

David
05.47	I think you can use it to strategically plan your resources and to identify where 
you can put the limited resources that you have and identify what types of 
technology you want to use and where you may need to collaborate with others 
that you haven't done so in the past.

Katherine
06.09	And where should I go if I want to learn more about Police Futures Research?

David
06.13	I think you should contact the Society of Police Futurists International.  We've 
got a great website; it's made up of police practitioners, it's made up of 
researchers, educators and others who are interested in professionalizing policing 
and enhancing law enforcement - really throughout the world - it's an 
international association.  We have a list serve in which you can talk about a 
variety of topics to people all over the country and in some foreign countries 
about whatever interests you.  Take a look at the website - Society of Police 
Futurists International - and consider becoming a member and making a 
contribution.

Katherine
06.54	Terrific.  Thank you for joining us today.

David
06.57	Thank you.  Thank you very much. 



Beat Exit
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