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NATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION STATISTICS

Statistical Analysis Report March 1995

National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988

TRENDS AMONG HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS,

1972-1992

U.S. Department of Education

Office of Educational Research and Improvement NCES 95-380
NATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION STATISTICS

Statistical Analysis Report March 1995

National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988

TRENDS AMONG HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS,

1972-1992

Patricia Green 

Bernard L. Dugoni 

Steven J. Ingels 

National Opinion Research Center (NORC)

at the University of Chicago 

1155 East Sixtieth Street 

Chicago, Illinois 60637 

Peggy Quinn 

Project Officer 

Jeffrey Owings 

Chief, Longitudinal and Household Studies Branch 

National Center for Education Statistics 

U.S. Department of Education

Office of Educational Research and Improvement NCES 95-380
U.S. Department of Education

Richard W. Riley 

Secretary

Office of Educational Research and Improvement

Sharon Robinson 

Assistant Secretary

National Center for Education Statistics

Emerson J. Elliott 

Commissioner of Education Statistics

National Center for Education Statistics

"The purpose of the Center shall be to collect, and 

analyze, and disseminate statistics and other data 

related to education in the United States and in other 

nations."—Section 406(b) of the General Education 

Provisions Act, as amended (20 U.S.C. 12213-1). 

March 1995 

Contact: 

Peggy Quinn 

(202) 219-1743 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Highlights

This report presents information about three cohorts of high school seniors, those in 1972, 1980, 

and 1992, and attempts to examine important trends in the areas of high school program enrollment, 

coursetaking, tested achievement, plans for postsecondary education, and plans for the future in general. 

High School Program

During the twenty-year period from 1972 to 1992, several discernible shifts occurred in high 

school program placement: 

• Enrollment in academic programs declined between 1972 and 1980, falling from 46 

percent to 39 percent. However, by 1992, enrollment had returned to its 1972 level--48 

percent of seniors were in academic programs. 

• The percentage of seniors in vocational programs has declined significantly from 22 

percent in 1972 (and 24 percent in 1980) to 12 percent in 1992. 

• The proportion of seniors in general high school programs increased from 32 percent in 

1972 to 40 percent in 1992. 

The rebound in academic program enrollment is fueled primarily by the higher enrollment rates 

among females and minorities. 

• While the percentage of males enrolled in academic programs declined from 48 percent 

in 1972 to 39 percent in 1980, by 1992 the percentage had returned to approximately the 

same level (47 percent). The percentage of females in these programs has increased, from 

43 percent in 1972 to 49 percent in 1992. 

• There has been no increase in the percentage of white students enrolled in academic 

programs (50 percent in 1992). However, the percentage of blacks increased from 33 

percent in 1972 to 43 percent in 1992, and the percentage of Hispanics increased from 27 

percent in 1972 to 35 percent in 1992. The proportion of Asians enrolled in college 

preparatory programs has remained relatively stable (56 percent in 1992). 

Courses Completed by High School Graduates

In 1983, A Nation at Risk brought to the forefront concern about the curriculum and standards of 

U.S. schools. In this book, the Commission on Excellence in Education recommended that all high school 

students complete at least four years of English, three years of social studies, three years of mathematics, 

and three years of science. As a result of this movement, tougher curricular standards can be seen by 

comparing the coursework completed by high school graduates in 1982 and 1992. 

• The proportion of high school graduates who met the minimum recommended standard 

increased from 13 percent in 1982 to 47 percent in 1992, a 34 point change. 

i 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

• Change occurred in all groups; however, some disparities across racial and ethnic groups 

persisted. While there were no differences between blacks and whites or Asians and 

whites, a smaller proportion of Hispanics than whites (36 percent compared to 48 percent) 

completed the recommended courses in 1992. 

• A gap between graduates of urban and rural schools emerged in 1992. In 1982, 

approximately the same percentage of graduates of urban, suburban, and rural schools met 

the minimum recommended standard. Ten years later, 51 percent of the graduates from 

urban schools completed the recommended coursework compared to only 42 percent of 

graduates from rural schools. 

• In 1982, 10 percent of high school graduates whose parents had not finished high school 

completed the recommended courses compared to 20 percent of graduates whose parents 

had completed college. In 1992, the groups were approximately equal. 

• The percentage of graduates who took both advanced algebra and geometry increased 

from 29 percent in 1982 to 50 percent in 1992. 

• The proportion of high school graduates who completed calculus approximately doubled 

from 4 percent in 1982 to 10 percent in 1992. 

• Over half, 54 percent, of 1992 graduates completed both biology and chemistry, compared 

to only 29 percent of 1982 graduates. 

Tested Achievement

• Differences in reading achievement between seniors from white and minority groups 

decreased between 1972 and 1992. 

• In 1972, a gap existed between seniors attending urban high schools and those attending 

suburban high schools. In 1992, this gap had narrowed. 

• In mathematics achievement, the gap between males and females had decreased. There 

was essentially no difference between male and female seniors in tested mathematics 

proficiency. 

• Differences in mathematics achievement across racial and ethnic groups also decreased, 

although disparities still existed. 

• In contrast to the lessening of racial and ethnic achievement differences, social class 

differences became more marked. Compared to 1972, the group of top-achieving seniors 

in 1992 included a smaller proportion of seniors from the lowest socio-economic status 

quartile. 

ii 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

High School Seniors’ Plans for Next Year

• The proportion of seniors planning to work immediately after high school graduation has 

fallen from 32 percent in 1972 to 14 percent in 1992. 

• In 1992, 78 percent of seniors reported that they would continue on to a postsecondary 

institution immediately after high school graduation compared to 59 percent in 1972. 

Types of Institutions College-Bound Seniors Plan to Attend

The percentage of high school seniors who planned to attend four-year colleges or academic 

programs at two year colleges immediately after high school increased between 1972 and 1992. The 

proportion of seniors planning to enroll in vocational programs at two year colleges remained constant, 

while the percentage of seniors planning to attend trade or technical schools declined. 

• In 1972, about one-third (34 percent) of all seniors planned to attend a four-year college 

in the year following high school graduation, while in 1992, over half of all seniors 

planned to attend a four-year college. 

• The percentage of seniors planning to enroll in an academic program in a two-year college 

increased slightly from 11 percent in 1972 to 13 percent in 1992. 

• Approximately the same proportion of seniors in 1972 (5 percent) and 1992 (6 percent) 

planned to enroll in a vocational program at a two-year college. 

• About 9 percent of 1972 seniors planned to enroll in a trade or technical school after high 

school. By 1992, only half that percentage (4 percent) planned to continue their education 

at a trade or technical school. 

• In 1972, a slightly higher percentage of males (35 percent) than females (32 percent) 

planned to go on to a four-year college immediately after high school. By 1992, this was 

reversed--significantly more females (58 percent) than males (50 percent) planned to 

attend a four-year college in the year after high school graduation. 

• Among those planning to attend college next year, four-year institutions were chosen by 

approximately equal proportions of 1992 black and white seniors. However, Hispanic 

seniors were less likely and Asian seniors were more likely than white seniors to plan to 

attend a four-year college. 

Highest Degree Expected

• In 1972, 19 percent of seniors expected to end their schooling with high school. By 1992, 

only 5 percent of seniors reported that they would not continue their education past high 

school. 

iii 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

• The proportion of seniors who expected to pursue some further education, but did not 

think they would finish college, also declined from 31 percent in 1972 to 25 percent in 

1992. 

• While the proportion of seniors who expected to end their education with their bachelor’s 

degree remained fairly constant (38 percent in 1972 and 36 percent in 1992, the 

proportion of seniors expecting to complete college and continue on to graduate school 

increased substantially. In 1972, 13 percent of seniors thought they would go on to earn 

a graduate degree; in 1992, one-third of all seniors expected to earn some type of graduate 

degree. 

• In 1972, 16 percent of males expected to pursue graduate education compared to 9 percent 

of females. In 1992, females were more likely than males to expect to earn a graduate 

degree, 35 percent compared to 31 percent. 

Heightened expectations are apparent among all racial and ethnic groups. 

• Thirty-eight percent of black seniors in 1992 expected to obtain a graduate degree 

compared to only 14 percent in 1972. 

• Among whites, the proportion expecting to pursue a graduate degree increased from 13 

percent in 1972 to 32 percent in 1992. 

• Aspirations also increased among Asian seniors; in 1992, 42 percent expected to attain 

a graduate degree, compared to 16 percent in 1972. 

• In 1992, 31 percent of Hispanic seniors expected to earn a graduate degree, compared to 

9 percent 20 years earlier. 

Values

The values emphasized by high school seniors have changed since 1972. The 1992 cohort of 

seniors more frequently emphasized work and money than did their peers of the preceding generation. 

• Compared to 1972, more seniors in 1992 stated that "success in work," "having lots of 

money," "being able to find steady work," "giving children a better opportunity," and 

"living close to parents" were very important. 

• The importance of "having friends" remained unchanged, while the importance of "having 

a good marriage" and "working to correct social and economic inequalities" declined. 

iv 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Foreword

This report presents data from three longitudinal studies conducted by the National Center for 

Education Statistics. The National Longitudinal Study of the Class of 1972 (NLS-72), High School and 

Beyond (HS&B) and the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88) were all designed 

to assess the educational experiences and achievement of high school students. With each cohort, the 

scope of the study was enlarged: NLS-72 focused on high school seniors; HS&B examined the 

experiences of sophomores as well as seniors, and gathered data from school records, administrators, 

teachers and parents; while NELS:88 began with a group of eighth-grade students, and followed these 

students as they continued through high school or dropped out of high school. As in HS&B, information 

was gathered from high school teachers, administrators, school transcripts, and parents. 

These three studies provide a particularly rich resource for examining the changes that have 

occurred in American education during the past twenty years. We can use these data to examine how 

student academic coursework, achievement, values, and aspirations have changed, or remained constant, 

throughout this period. This report examines trends in each of these areas and explores how various 

subgroups of the population have experienced these changes. 

It is evident from this report that progress has been made in improving the quality of the 

educational experience for many students. In 1992, the proportion of seniors completing rigorous 

sequences of academic courses was higher than in either of the prior years examined. And the proportion 

of students who expected to complete college and attend graduate school was at an all time high. As a 

society, we should take pride in this accomplishment. At the same time, this report also highlights areas 

in which improvement is still needed. 

Paul Planchon, Associate Commissioner 

Elementary/Secondary Education Statistics Division 

Jeffrey Owings, Branch Chief 

Longitudinal and Household Studies Branch 

v 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the reviewers at NCES for their comments and suggestions at all 

stages in the production of this report: Jeffrey Owings, Chief of the Longitudinal and Household Studies 

Branch, Peggy Quinn, Project Officer for the Second follow-up, Ralph Lee, and Marilyn M. McMillen. 

We are also grateful for the comments offered by external reviewers: Bob Burton, Timothy J. 

Madigan, Paula R. Knepper, Arnie Goldstein, and Duncan MacQuarrie. 

Colleagues at NORC also provided thoughtful comments and assistance. Tom Hoffer read a draft 

of this manuscript and offered useful suggestions for its improvement. Karen Sutherlin, Vivian Tillman, 

Whitney Moore, and Jeffrey Cothran provided secretarial assistance. Virginia Bartot and Gloria Rauens 

helped us to create the necessary data files from these complex studies. 

Finally, we would like to thank the NELS:88 Second Follow-up project staff including Steven 

Ingels, Project Director, and Leslie Scott and Lisa Thalji, Associate Project Directors. These people 

marshalled the resources necessary for us to complete this task. Donald Rock and Judy Pollack of 

Educational Testing Service were responsible for the design and scaling of the achievement tests used in 

NELS. Our thanks to all. 

vi 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table of Contents

Page

Highlights ............................................................... i

Foreword ................................................................ v

Acknowledgements ........................................................ vi

Prologue ................................................................ 1

The Historical Context ................................................. 1 

Labor Market Trends .................................................. 2 

Social and Demographic Trends ........................................... 3 

Chapter 1. A Profile of Seniors in 1972, 1980, and 1992 ............................. 6

Demographic Shifts ................................................... 6 

Race and Social Class .................................................. 8 

Values ............................................................ 10 

Chapter 2. High School Program, Tested Achievement, and Course-Taking ............. 15

High School Program ................................................. 15 

Trends in Course-taking from 1982 to 1992 .................................. 20 

Tested Achievement in Mathematics and Reading ............................. 25 

Participation in Extracurricular Activities ................................... 30 

Chapter 3. Seniors’ Plans for Next Year ....................................... 33

Plans to Work Full-time in the Year Following Graduation ....................... 35 

Type of Postsecondary Institution Seniors Plan to Attend in the 

Year Following Graduation .......................................... 37 

College Selection .................................................... 41 

Expected Major Field of Study .......................................... 46 

Chapter 4. Seniors’ Plans for the Future ....................................... 48

Educational Expectations ............................................... 48 

Occupational Expectations .............................................. 52 

Chapter 5. Conclusion ..................................................... 58

vii 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

List of Appendices Page

Appendix A. Supplementary Tables ............................................ 59 

Appendix B. Standard Errors for Percent Estimates Reported in Text ..................... 71 

Appendix C. Description of Surveys and Cross-Cohort Comparisons .................... 111 

Appendix D. Methodology Used in Report ...................................... 133 

Appendix E. Publications Using NELS:88 Data ................................... 144 

List of Tables

Table 1.1 Number (in thousands) of Households with Children Under 18 by 

Householder Status .............................................. 3 

Table 1.2 Items Most Frequently Cited by the General Public as a Major 

Problem Facing the Local Public Schools: 1970-1992 (Percents) .............. 5 

Table 1.3 Percent of Seniors by Sex, Race, and Region ............................. 6 

Table 1.4 Percent of Black, White, Asian, and Hispanic Seniors in Each Quartile 

of Social Class ................................................. 9 

Table 1.5a Percent of Seniors Who Believe that Various Values are "Very Important" ........ 13 

Table 1.5b Percent of Seniors Who Believe that Various Values are "Very Important" ........ 14 

Table 2.1 Percent of Seniors Reporting Enrollment in General, Academic, 

and Vocational High School Programs ................................ 19 

Table 2.2 Percentage of High School Graduates Earning the Recommended Units 

in Core Courses: 1982 and 1992 ................................... 21 

Table 2.3 Effect Sizes of Changes in Reading Scores for Various Subgroups in 1972, 

1980, and 1992 ................................................ 26 

Table 2.4 Effect Sizes of Changes in Mathematics Scores for Various Subgroups in 

1972, 1980, and 1992 ........................................... 28 

Table 2.5 Percent of Seniors in Highest and Lowest 15 Percent in Reading and 

Mathematics .................................................. 29 

Table 2.6a Percent of Seniors Reporting Participation in Extracurricular Activities ........... 31 

Table 2.6b Percent of Seniors Reporting Participation in Extracurricular Activities ........... 32 

Table 3.1 Percent of Seniors Planning to Work Full-Time in Year Following High 

School Graduation .............................................. 36 

Table 3.2 Percent of All Seniors Who Plan to Continue Education Next Year at FourYear Colleges, Two-Year Academic Programs, Two-Year Vocational Programs, 

or Trade and Technical Schools .................................... 40 

Table 3.3a Percent of College-Bound Seniors Who Reported Various Financial Factors 

Were "Very Important" in Selecting a College .......................... 44 

Table 3.3b Percent of College-Bound Seniors Who Reported Various Academic Factors 

Were "Very Important" in Selecting a College .......................... 45 

Table 3.4 Percent of College-Bound Seniors Expecting to Major in Each Field ............. 47 

Table 4.1 Percent of Seniors Expecting to Complete Various Levels of Education .......... 51 

Table 4.2 Percent of Seniors Who Expect to be in Various Occupations ................. 53 

Table 4.3 Percent of Seniors Who Expect to be in Various Occupations by Sex 

and Race .................................................... 54 

viii 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

List of Figures Page

Figure 1.1 Percent of High School Seniors from Racial and Ethnic Groups, 1972-1992 . . . . . . . . 7 

Figure 1.2 Percent of High School Seniors Who Report Various Values to be "Very 

Important" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 

Figure 2.1 Percent of High School Seniors in Various High School Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 

Figure 2.2 Percent of High School Seniors Completing Mathematics Courses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 

Figure 2.3 Percent of High School Seniors Completing Science Courses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 

Figure 3.1 Seniors’ Plans for Year Following High School Graduation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 

Figure 3.2 Percent of Seniors Attending Various Types of Postsecondary Institutions . . . . . . . . . 38 

Figure 3.3 Considerations College-Bound Seniors Report to be "Very Important" 

in Selecting a College . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 

Figure 4.1 Percent of Seniors Expecting to Attain Various Levels of Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 

ix 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Prologue

This report presents information about three groups of students, high school seniors in 1972, 1980, 

and 1992. In the spring of each of those years, the National Center for Education Statistics conducted a 

survey asking seniors about their experiences in school as well as their plans for the future. In 1972, the 

National Longitudinal Study (NLS-72) was launched, followed by High School and Beyond (HS&B) in 

1980, and the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88), Second Follow-up in 1992. 

A detailed description of these studies can be found in Appendix C; methodology used in analyzing these 

data is described in Appendix D. Before proceeding with a discussion of findings, it is important to place 

these studies in context. To do this, we begin by presenting a brief overview of the historical context 

which framed the experience of each cohort, the labor market and demographic trends that characterized 

the 20 year period being examined, and the changes in the educational environment that influenced the 

academic experiences of each group of seniors. 

The Historical Context

Some perspective on the experiences of each group of seniors can be provided by briefly 

reviewing the headlines that made news during each cohort’s senior year, as well as television programs 

that portrayed a slice of contemporary American life. These vignettes provide snapshots of each era, 

helping to establish a context for the research findings that follow. 

During the 1971-1972 school year, the American bombing of Vietnam continued as the Paris peace 

talks stalled, President Nixon visited China, and wage and price controls were lifted as the economy 

improved.1 The presidential campaign was in full swing, with McGovern and others courting the votes 

of the newly enfranchised 18-year olds. The history-making break-in at Watergate would not occur until 

June of 1972 and, according to a Gallup poll, Nixon was the most admired man in America. On 

television, the popularity of "Gunsmoke" was waning while the top-rated "All in the Family" was 

propelling the medium into more controversial territory.2 On "Mary Tyler Moore," Mary Richards was 

breaking new ground as a single female employed as associate producer of a local newscast, whose 

relationships revolved around work and friends rather than home and family. 

The Class of 1980 came of age during different times. When Americans were asked in the spring 

of 1980 about the country’s most important problems, foreign policy and international problems topped 

the list, followed by concern about the economy.3 Iran had moved to the center of the world stage by 

taking over the U.S. embassy in Teheran, and holding American hostages. The Soviet invasion of 

Afghanistan stirred a new round of anti-communist sentiment. At home, Americans’ sense of well-being 

was threatened by double-digit inflation as the prime interest rate hit 20 percent in April of 1980. In May, 

race riots erupted in Miami, killing 18 and injuring 350. Running on a conservative platform and 

promising to make America strong again, Ronald Reagan was the leading candidate in the race for the 

1 These and other events are chronicled in the "Headline History" section of Gallup, George. (1978). The Gallup Poll --

Public Opinion 1972-1977. Wilmington, Delaware: Scholarly Resources Inc. 

2 See the average ratings for television shows as published in Brooks, Tim and Marsh, Earle. (1981). The Complete

Directory to Prime Time Network TV Shows 1946-Present. New York: Ballantine Books. 

3 These and other events are chronicled in the "Headline History" section of Gallup, George. (1981). The Gallup Poll --

Public Opinion 1980. Wilmington, Delaware: Scholarly Resources Inc. 

1 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Republican nomination for President. "Three’s Company" was the top-rated sitcom on television, but the 

most talked about show was the season finale of "Dallas" that left viewers asking "Who shot J.R?" 

Seniors graduating in the spring of 1992 faced a somewhat different world. The Soviet Union had 

fallen apart, and the U.S. military was engaged in airlifting supplies to the former soviet block countries 

to assist them through the winter.4 The countries of Slovenia and Croatia were formally recognized, 

marking the breakup of Yugoslavia. In Los Angeles, race riots were sparked by the verdict in a highly 

publicized case in which police officers were videotaped as they beat a black man, Rodney King, as he 

was being arrested. In a Gallup poll conducted in the spring of 1992, respondents reported that the 

country’s most important problems were the economy, unemployment, poverty and homelessness, followed 

by health care. In the fictional world of television situation comedies, the woman in the newsroom was 

now the high-powered network anchor, "Murphy Brown," whose decision to have a child outside of 

marriage provided grist for speeches by former Vice President, Dan Quayle. 

Labor Market Trends

Some common threads were apparent throughout the period. Concern over the economy and 

unemployment resulted, in part, from shifts in the labor market--stagnation in the manufacturing sector 

accompanied by growth in the service sector. Since 1972, the number of manufacturing jobs remained 

relatively constant, even though the number of employed persons increased substantially:5 

• In the goods-producing industries (mining, construction, and manufacturing), 23.6 million 

people were employed in 1970, 25.7 million in 1980, and 23.5 million in 1992. 

• Employment in service-producing industries (transportation, utilities, wholesale and retail 

trade, finance, insurance, real estate, services, and government) increased dramatically. 

In 1992, 84.8 million people were employed in service industries, compared to 47.3 

million people in 1970. 

As proportions of the labor force, though, these figures meant that one-third of all employed adults worked 

in goods-producing industries in 1970; by 1992, only 22 percent worked in that sector. Concern about 

job security was not limited to those in manufacturing; it also affected workers in both white and bluecollar positions across sectors as companies tried to "downsize" to remain competitive. 

A notable trend during this period has been the growth of female participation in the labor force. 

In 1970, 43 percent of women 16 and over were employed; in 1991, over 57 percent of women were 

employed.6 Women now constitute 45 percent of the labor force. During this time, women have pushed 

for increased equality in the workplace with some success. According to U.S. Census data, in 1970, a 

typical woman earned 59 cents for every dollar earned by a typical man.7 In 1980, little had changed--

4 These and other events are chronicled in the "Headline History" section of Gallup, George. (1993). The Gallup Poll --

Public Opinion 1992. Wilmington, Delaware: Scholarly Resources Inc. 

5 Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics as reported in 1993 Information Please Almanac, p 61. 

6 ibid., p 56 

7 Ibid, p 59. 

2 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

women’s earnings were only 60 percent of men’s earnings. By 1990, women’s earnings relative to men’s 

increased to 72 percent. 

Social and Demographic Trends

Racial inequality.8 Inequalities between racial groups have also been the focus of social policies 

instituted during this period, however, disparities persist. In 1975, the median income of white families 

was $34,662, black families $21,327, and Hispanic families $23,203 (in constant dollars). In 1990, white 

incomes had increased to $36,915, while black and Hispanic family incomes remained stable at $21,423, 

and $23,431, respectively (in constant dollars).9 The proportion of extremely poor black families doubled 

during this time. In 1975, 6 percent of black families had incomes of under $5,000, compared to 12 

percent in 1990. 

There has been tremendous change in the attitudes of white Americans toward civil rights. 

However, while progress in civil rights has been made, tension over race and the means to ensure equal 

opportunity has been constant throughout this 20 year period. In 1971-72, tension surrounded the Supreme 

Court decision upholding busing as a means of desegregating schools. The Miami riots of 1980 focused 

new attention on race relations in America’s urban centers and the strained relationships between racial 

and ethnic groups in the inner city. And finally, the 1992 riots in Los Angeles bear witness to the fact 

that racial tensions persist to the present. 

Family structure. Changes in family structure have also been evident throughout this time 

period. As shown in Table 1.1, the number of households composed of a married couple with children 

under the age of 18 declined slightly between 1970 and 1991.10 At the same time, the number of singleparent households increased dramatically. In 1970, there were 2.9 million female-headed households with 

children under 18. In 1991, that number had more than doubled; there were over 6.8 million femaleheaded households with children under 18 in 1991. 

Table 1.1

Number (in thousands) of Households with Children

Under 18 by Householder Status

1970 1980 1991

Married couple with own children under 18 25532 24961 24397 

Male householder, no spouse present, with children under 18 341 616 1181 

Female householder, no spouse present, with children under 18 2858 5445 6823 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-20, Nos. 411, 419, 424, 432, 

447, and unpublished data. 

8 The reader may note that here and throughout the report, relatively few comparisons involving Asian seniors are discussed. 

This is due to two factors. First, the sample size for Asians in 1972 is quite small and second, even though the sample sizes are 

somewhat larger in the subsequent years, the variability in this group was quite large, leading to standard error estimates considerably 

larger than the other groups, with the result that few of the comparisons involving this subgroup were statistically significant. 

9 ibid, p 46. 

10 See page 26 (Table 18) of U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, (1993). Digest of

Education Statistics, 1993. Washington: NCES 93-292. 

3 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Demographic changes. One of the biggest changes directly affecting education between 1972 

and 1992 was the declining numbers of children under 18 in the population. Members of the Class of 

1972 and the Class of 1980 were part of the "baby boom" generation while members of the Class of 1992 

were part of the "baby bust" generation. In fact, the 1980 seniors were part of one of the largest birth 

cohorts in U.S. history.11 In 1980, there were approximately 8.7 million 18-19 year olds, compared to 

7.9 million in 1972, and 6.8 million in 1992. The relative size of each cohort might be expected to have 

an impact on the class sizes and resources available to members of each group. The 1980 cohort was 

poised in a difficult position--the last, and one of the largest, of the baby-boom cohorts. It is likely that 

this generation of students taxed the capacity of schools throughout their journey through the system. 

Martin and Midgley (1994) summarize important shifts in immigration to the United States during 

this time period. Whereas prior to 1965, most immigrants to the United states were from Europe, since 

1965 the majority have come from Asia and Latin America. In fact, between 1981 and 1992, only 10 

percent of U.S. immigrants came from Europe. This shift in immigration patterns is also being reflected 

in the demographic make-up of the U.S. foreign born population, which in 1990 was 23 percent Asian, 

while the native born population was only 1 percent Asian.12 These trends should make assessments of 

Asian students more feasible in subsequent years. Unfortunately, the numbers available in the 1972 and 

1980 samples are not sufficient for stable comparison. 

The social trends documented above are only part of the historical circumstance that framed the 

experiences of each cohort of seniors. Changes in education and the public’s view of education also 

affected each generation. 

Perceptions of the education system. The public’s perception of education changed throughout 

this period. Table 1.2 below presents information on American’s perceptions of the problems facing local 

public schools. A few key trends are noteworthy. First, concern regarding the use of drugs steadily 

increased; this despite the fact that the prevalence of marijuana and cocaine use by high school seniors 

declined beginning in the late 1980s. 

Lack of discipline was a major concern in all three years, however, in 1980 there was a large spike 

in the proportion of adults expressing concern about this problem. By the early 1970s, violence in schools 

was already becoming a problem severe enough in the cities to prompt the introduction of programs, 

equipment, and alarms to detect weapons being brought to school by students. (E.g., a study of the Los 

Angeles School system indicated that by 1974, nearly 14 percent of schools had installed sophisticated 

alarm systems and another national study found that by 1977, 17 percent of schools were using some type 

of electronic security system).13 

Over one-quarter of adults in 1980 stated that lack of discipline was a major problem facing their 

local school. Other notable trends over the 20 year period include increased concern about financial 

support, and the decreasing concern over obtaining good teachers, and school integration and busing. 

Concern over curriculum and standards was highest in 1980. 

11 These figures are taken from Table 15 (page 23) of U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education 

Statistics, 1993. Digest of Education Statistics 1993. Washington: NCES 93-292. 

12 Martin, P., & Midgley, E. (1994). Immigration to the United States: Journey to an uncertain destination. Population 

Bulletin, 49(2), 2-46. 

13 McDill, E.L. & McPartland (1977). Violence in Schools. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books. 

4 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 1.2

Items Most Frequently Cited by the General Public as a Major Problem Facing

the Local Public Schools: 1970-1992 (Percents)

1972 1980 1992

Use of drugs 11 14 22 

Lack of discipline 18 26 17 

Lack of financial support 17 10 22 

Getting good teachers 12 6 5 

Poor curriculum/standards 6 11 9 

Large schools/overcrowding -- 7 9 

Moral standards -- -- 4 

Parents lack of interest 3 6 5 

Pupils lack of interest/truancy -- 5 3 

Drinking/alcoholism -- 2 2 

Low teacher pay -- -- 3 

Integration/busing 17 10 4 

Teachers’ lack of interest -- 6 2 

Lack of proper facilities 11 2 --

-- Sample size insufficient for reliable estimates.

Source: "The Annual Gallup Poll of the Public’s Attitudes Toward the Public Schools", Phi Delta Kappan, various years. As 

reported in the Digest of Education Statistics, 1993, Table 23, page 30. 

Curricular change. Perhaps the most important trend during this period was the initiation of the 

"school reform" movement in the 1980s. Reflecting the concern of all Americans, the National 

Commission on Excellence in Education issued A Nation at Risk in 1983. The Commission called for a 

more rigorous high school curriculum, including increased work in mathematics and science for all 

students. Since that time, 42 of the 50 states have raised high school graduation requirements.14 

14 Coley, R. and Goertz, M.E. 1990. Educational Standards in the Fifty States: 1990. Princeton, N.J.: Educational 

Testing Service. 

5 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Chapter 1. A Profile of Seniors in 1972, 1980, and 1992

The demographic trends, environmental factors, and changes in societal values outlined above can 

also be seen in a number of the trends observed among high school seniors during this time frame. This 

chapter examines changes in demographics, socio-economic status, and values among high school seniors 

in 1972, 1980, and 1992. 

Demographic Shifts

Marked shifts occurred in the distribution of the U.S. population between 1972 and 1992. During 

this time, population shifted away from the "rustbelt" of the north and midwest toward the "sunbelt" of 

the south and west. This regional shift is reflected in the distribution of high school seniors in 1972, 

1980, and 1992 displayed in Table 1.3. The figures presented in this table, as well as all other figures 

presented in this report, are based on survey data that have been weighted to represent the total population 

of high school seniors. 

The increasing diversity of the U.S. population is also reflected in Figure 1.1.15 The percentage 

of minority high school seniors has increased substantially. In 1972, 86 percent of high school seniors 

were white; in 1992, only about 73 percent were white. The proportion of black, Asian, and Hispanic 

seniors all grew over the same time span, in part due to immigration and in part due to differential birth 

rates. 

Table 1.3

Percent of Seniors by Sex, Race, and Region16

1972 1980 1992

SEX

Male 

Female 

49.9 

50.1 

48.1 

51.9 

50.4 

49.6 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 

White 

Asian 

Hispanic 

8.7 

85.8 

0.9 

3.5 

11.6 

79.9 

1.3 

6.3 

11.9 

72.7 

4.5 

10.0 

REGION

Northeast 

Midwest 

South 

West 

26.4 

30.2 

26.2 

17.2 

22.9 

28.6 

30.4 

18.1 

19.8 

26.0 

34.7 

19.5 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

15 Note that Figure 1.1 includes Native Americans as a proportion of the samples reported. However, because the sample size 

for this group was too small for statistically reliable estimates, it was eliminated from the remainder of the calculations in this report. 

16 The categories indicating missing data/no data available were eliminated in the computation of the percentages in this table. 

All estimates are subject to sampling error. Standard errors for the tables in this report can be found in Appendix B. 

6 
Figure 1.1 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Race and Social Class

Perhaps one of the most important changes that occurred between 1972 and 1992 is the increased 

prosperity of at least a segment of the minority population. Table 1.4 presents data on the proportion of 

black, white, Asian and Hispanic High School Seniors who are in the highest quartile of socioeconomic 

status (SES), the middle quartiles, and the lowest quartile. Naturally, as the largest group, the percentage 

of whites in each quartile group remains relatively constant. However, the distribution of other social 

classes within other racial and ethnic groups has changed significantly. 

• The proportion of black seniors in the lowest SES group has decreased from 63 percent 

in 1972 to 42 percent in 1992. The percentage of black seniors in the highest SES group 

has doubled from 5 percent in 1972 to 10 percent in 1992. Despite these gains however, 

blacks are still far more likely than whites to be in the lowest SES group, and far less 

likely than whites to be in the highest SES group. 

• The percentage of Hispanic seniors from low SES families has decreased from 61 percent 

in 1972 to 49 percent in 1992, while the percentage from high SES families has more 

than doubled from 7 percent in 1972 to 15 percent in 1992. 

8 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 1.4

Percent of Black, White, Asian, and Hispanic Seniors

in Each Quartile of Social Class

1972 1980 1992

BLACKS 100.0 100.0 100.0 

Low SES 

Quartile 

62.8 55.8 42.2 

Middle Two SES 

Quartiles 

31.9 35.8 47.3 

High SES 

Quartile 

5.2 8.5 10.5 

WHITES 100.0 100.0 100.0 

Low SES 

Quartile 

18.5 21.4 18.3 

Middle Two SES 

Quartiles 

54.1 50.8 51.9 

High SES 

Quartile 

27.4 27.8 29.8 

ASIANS 100.0 100.0 100.0 

Low SES 

Quartile 

25.4 21.2 23.3 

Middle Two SES 

Quartiles 

51.5 46.4 43.3 

High SES 

Quartiles 

23.1 32.4 33.4 

HISPANICS 100.0 100.0 100.0 

Low SES 

Quartiles 

61.2 51.9 49.4 

Middle Two SES 

Quartiles 

31.6 37.8 35.6 

High SES 

Quartiles 

7.2 10.3 15.0 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

9 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Values

Values are basic beliefs people hold about what is important in their lives. Although relatively 

constant, values can and do change over time, reflecting the cultural values of the period. Figure 1.2 

presents information on the values considered to be important by each cohort of seniors. 

The values emphasized by high school seniors have changed since 1972. The 1992 cohort of 

seniors more frequently emphasized work and money than did their peers of the preceding generation. 

Compared to 1972, more seniors in 1992 stated that "success in work," "having lots of money," "being 

able to find steady work," "giving children a better opportunity," and "living close to parents" were very 

important. The importance of "having friends" remained unchanged, while the importance of "having a 

good marriage" and "working to correct social and economic inequalities" declined. 

This shift toward a greater concern with work and money has not occurred evenly among all 

subgroups, as is evident in Tables 1.5a and 1.5b. Noticeable differences exist between men and women. 

• In 1972, a lower percentage of women than men reported that the ability to find steady 

work was very important. By 1992, approximately equal percentages of women and men 

reported that the ability to find steady work was very important. 

• Money has increased in importance for both men and women. Between 1972 and 1992, 

the percentage of males who believe that money is very important increased from 26 

percent to 45 percent. During the same period, the percentage of women who believe 

money is very important increased from under 10 percent in 1972 to over 29 percent in 

1992. 

The trends among racial and ethnic subgroups are similar, with only two exceptions: 

• The percentage of black and of white seniors who said that marriage was "very important" 

declined. Among blacks, the percentage decreased from 80 percent in 1972 to 74 percent 

in 1992, and among whites, the percentage decreased from 82 percent to 80 percent. 

• In all years, a greater percentage of blacks than whites said that it was very important to 

work to correct social and economic inequalities (See table 1.5b). However, there was 

a decline in the proportion of blacks and whites who reported that working to correct 

social and economic inequalities was very important. The proportion of Hispanic and 

Asian seniors who believe that working to correct inequalities was very important 

remained constant. 

10 
Figure 1.2 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Despite the parallel trend, important differences in values between racial and ethnic groups persist. 

• In 1992, black, Asian, and Hispanic seniors were more likely than white seniors to report 

that having a lot of money and giving children a better chance were very important. 

• In addition, blacks in 1992 were more likely than whites to feel that success in work and 

having steady work were very important. 

• Blacks and Hispanics were less likely than whites to say that friends were important. 

• Compared to blacks and whites, Asians and Hispanics more typically believed living close 

to parents was very important. 

12 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 1.5a Percent of Seniors Who Believe that Various Values are "Very Important"

A Good Marriage

Giving Children

A Better Opportunity

Living Close

to Parents Friends

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

TOTAL 81.7 81.0 79.0 66.8 66.9 75.5 7.7 14.0 16.9 79.2 81.5 79.9 

SEX

Male 78.6 78.0 75.7 66.8 67.3 74.5 7.2 13.0 15.2 80.4 81.2 79.8 

Female 84.9 83.8 82.3 66.9 66.5 76.5 8.3 14.8 18.7 78.0 81.8 80.0 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 80.4 76.3 74.1 88.7 85.6 91.2 10.0 14.2 16.5 60.3 60.3 63.5 

White 82.1 81.8 79.8 63.7 63.2 71.0 7.1 13.0 15.2 81.8 85.0 83.4 

Asian 69.5 81.0 79.4 69.6 75.0 79.1 13.8 24.4 26.6 78.7 84.8 82.5 

Hispanic 83.5 80.7 78.8 84.1 79.2 86.7 14.1 21.8 25.4 69.2 72.2 72.4 

REGION

Northeast 80.4 78.4 80.3 63.8 65.1 74.2 7.8 13.9 18.3 80.3 82.7 83.3 

Midwest 81.4 81.4 78.1 64.8 62.7 70.6 6.5 12.8 15.9 79.3 82.3 81.6 

South 84.7 82.1 79.4 75.1 74.6 80.1 9.6 15.2 16.1 78.0 78.2 76.4 

West 79.9 81.0 78.6 62.4 63.3 75.0 6.9 14.0 18.2 79.2 82.9 80.7 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low 83.8 80.5 76.3 78.6 75.8 85.0 9.0 15.1 19.1 73.2 74.7 71.6 

Middle 82.0 81.3 79.0 67.5 67.3 76.5 8.1 14.1 16.7 80.1 82.2 80.3 

High 79.2 81.2 81.6 53.4 56.0 64.8 5.8 12.0 15.3 83.3 87.6 86.9 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 82.2 80.8 77.9 70.1 68.0 78.1 8.0 13.8 19.0 77.4 79.6 80.0 

Academic 80.4 81.5 80.2 60.8 63.0 71.2 6.5 12.9 14.0 82.1 85.6 83.2 

Vocational 83.8 79.9 77.5 74.4 71.4 82.0 10.0 15.8 20.3 76.0 76.9 73.0 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE - MATH AND READING

Low 82.8 79.4 74.8 78.2 76.0 81.2 10.7 18.6 24.5 71.8 71.5 68.6 

Middle 82.7 82.0 79.3 68.7 68.6 78.6 7.7 12.6 16.2 80.9 83.6 80.8 

High 78.9 81.3 81.4 50.1 54.5 62.8 4.4 10.3 9.9 84.4 87.9 85.8 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

13 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 1.5b Percent of Seniors Who Believe that Various Values are "Very Important"

Steady Work Success in Work Money

Working to Correct

Social Problems

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

TOTAL 77.8 84.3 87.9 84.5 88.4 89.3 17.8 31.4 37.4 26.9 13.0 20.3 

SEX

Male 82.1 85.8 87.1 86.2 89.1 89.0 25.9 40.5 45.3 22.4 12.3 17.0 

Female 73.5 83.0 88.6 82.8 87.9 89.6 9.8 23.1 29.4 31.3 13.6 23.6 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 86.8 86.4 91.6 92.8 92.2 94.0 29.9 44.8 51.8 46.5 25.3 33.8 

White 77.0 84.3 87.3 83.9 88.2 88.4 16.4 29.4 33.7 24.7 10.6 16.7 

Asian 78.5 79.0 85.0 78.8 87.5 89.6 18.7 40.1 47.9 24.6 17.4 25.3 

Hispanic 83.5 83.5 88.7 87.7 86.4 89.6 18.8 34.6 40.5 32.5 18.3 27.0 

REGION

Northeast 75.4 84.8 88.3 83.0 88.4 89.7 16.7 32.6 40.2 25.9 13.3 20.7 

Midwest 77.6 84.9 87.9 83.9 88.4 88.3 17.3 29.8 36.0 24.9 10.7 17.1 

South 81.6 84.5 88.0 88.1 89.0 90.4 19.6 32.5 38.1 31.8 15.2 21.6 

West 76.0 82.1 87.2 82.5 87.2 88.4 17.9 32.0 34.9 24.4 12.7 21.7 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low 83.4 84.1 88.3 85.4 86.2 89.5 19.2 31.5 43.6 28.9 15.0 29.4 

Middle 78.4 85.0 88.6 84.8 89.0 89.1 17.3 31.1 37.6 25.4 11.7 45.4 

High 71.0 83.5 86.1 83.1 89.9 89.4 17.6 32.0 31.2 27.8 13.3 19.5 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 78.9 84.0 88.0 82.3 86.5 88.4 18.9 32.6 38.3 24.8 11.8 20.0 

Academic 74.3 83.9 87.9 85.3 90.6 90.6 16.2 28.8 34.3 29.8 14.6 21.1 

Vocational 83.3 85.2 89.5 85.9 87.7 89.2 19.8 34.4 42.7 23.8 12.3 18.7 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE - MATH AND READING

Low 84.2 83.7 85.7 86.4 85.5 87.1 24.9 41.0 49.2 26.8 15.9 20.5 

Middle 79.6 86.1 90.0 85.5 89.9 90.4 16.4 29.7 38.5 26.2 11.7 18.2 

High 67.2 81.7 84.6 80.3 88.8 87.7 12.8 24.3 25.4 28.7 11.9 18.6 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

14 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Chapter 2. High School Program, Tested Achievement, and Course-Taking

High School Program

In the United States and most modern societies, secondary schooling systems are expected to meet 

two at least partially competing objectives: providing a common education to all students, while at the 

same time preparing students for very different postsecondary educational and work experiences. While 

technological development has led to an increasingly specialized division of labor, many have argued that 

schools should not necessarily follow suit. Some see common educational experiences as an important 

way to build a shared civic identity among individuals working in fields that are often incomprehensible 

to outsiders. Other critics of specialization point to the rapid pace of technological and occupational 

change, arguing that a common general education is a better preparation for the future than a possibly 

soon-to-be-obsolete specialization. Still others stress the risk that earlier specialization will result in even 

stronger ties than now exist between family background advantages and access to the more advantageous 

specializations. Proponents of increased or earlier specialization argue that participation in a specialized 

program gives students not only marketable skills, but also an identity and a sense of belonging that will 

lead to greater engagement in school. The ways in which states, local educational authorities, and 

individual schools have tried to balance these objectives has changed over the years, and their efforts have 

often been subject to controversy. 

Differentiation of programs occurs between as well as within high schools. The comprehensive 

high school has been the most popular form of school organization from the early part of this century until 

the present. It typically differentiates students into three main types of curriculum program: college 

preparatory or academic, vocational preparatory, and a hybrid of the two, most commonly known as the 

general studies program. The main alternative to the comprehensive form is the specialized high school, 

which may offer either a vocational or an academic program of studies. Historically, most specialized 

public schools were vocational high schools. In recent years, specialized academic "magnet schools" 

within urban districts have become widespread. Private and parochial high schools also usually specialize, 

normally in the college-preparatory function. 

Cutting across the different types of schools are the main types of curriculum programs. Seniors 

in each of the three cohorts were asked to characterize their programs as general, academic, or vocational. 

The specific sequences of courses that constitute these programs of study vary from school to school, and 

even from student to student within the same school. After examining enrollment trends in the main 

programs, we turn to the types of courses seniors had completed during their high school careers. Detailed 

information on their sequences are available from the high school transcripts of the 1982 and 1992 cohorts. 

Program placements and amounts of course work are associated with different levels of academic 

achievement,17 and one would anticipate that trends in course taking will match up with trends in tested 

achievement. The three cohorts of seniors were tested in reading comprehension and mathematics, and, 

while the tests used different questions, we can still compare the sizes of group differences within cohorts. 

During the 20 year period from 1972 to 1992, several noticeable shifts occurred in program 

placement, as demonstrated in Figure 2.1 Between 1972 and 1980, there was a decline in the participation 

in academic programs and an increase in the percentage of seniors in general education programs; the 

proportion enrolled in vocational education programs increased only slightly. During the following ten 

17 Adam Gamoran, 1987, "The stratification of high school learning opportunities." Sociology of Education, 60, 135-155. 

15 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

years, participation in academic programs returned to its previous level, while the percentage of seniors 

enrolled in vocational programs decreased. 

• The percentage of seniors in vocational programs has declined significantly from 22 

percent in 1972 (and 24 percent in 1980) to 12 percent in 1992. 

• The proportion of seniors in general high school programs increased from 32 percent in 

1972 to 40 percent in 1992. 

• Enrollment in academic programs declined between 1972 and 1980, falling from 46 

percent to 39 percent. However, by 1992, enrollment had returned to its 1972 level--48 

percent of seniors were in academic programs. 

It is important to point out that, while the percentage of students enrolled in academic programs 

has increased, fewer than half of all seniors are in college preparatory courses. In 1992, the majority of 

seniors were not engaged in a program of coursework designed to prepare them for college. 

The recovery in academic program enrollment is fueled primarily by the higher enrollment rates 

among females and minorities. Table 2.1 presents detailed information on high school program enrollment 

for subgroups of the population. 

• While the percentage of males enrolled in academic programs declined from 48 percent 

in 1972 to 39 percent in 1980, by 1992 the percentage had returned to approximately the 

same level (47 percent). The percentage of females enrolled in academic programs has 

increased, from 43 percent in 1972 to 49 percent in 1992. 

• There has been no increase in the percentage of white students enrolled in academic 

programs. However, the percentage of blacks increased from 33 percent in 1972 to 43 

percent in 1992, and the percentage of Hispanics increased from 27 percent in 1972 to 35 

percent in 1992. The percentage of Asians enrolled in college preparatory programs has 

remained relatively stable. 

16 
Figure 2.1 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

The decline in the proportion of seniors enrolled in vocational programs has occurred among all 

subgroups of the population. The sex inequity in vocational program placement that was apparent in 1972 

has now disappeared. 

• The proportion of males in these programs dropped from 19 percent in 1972 to 12 percent 

in 1992. For females, the change is even larger. In 1972 over one-quarter (26 percent) 

of women were enrolled in vocational programs; in 1992 that proportion had been cut in 

half to only 12 percent. 

• In 1972, one-third of blacks and 30 percent of Hispanics were in vocational programs. 

In 1992, only 17 percent of blacks and 14 percent of Hispanics were enrolled in 

vocational programs. 

Enrollment in general education programs was about equal for men and women in 1992. 

However, some disparity existed between racial and ethnic groups. 

• Compared to whites, Hispanics in 1972 and 1992 were more frequently enrolled in 

general education programs. In 1972, 31 percent of white seniors and 42 percent of 

Hispanic seniors were in general education programs. This disparity was still evident in 

1992 when 39 percent of whites and 51 percent of Hispanics were enrolled in general 

education programs. 

Regional differences in program placement are becoming less pronounced. In 1972, 61 percent 

of seniors in the Northeast were in academic programs compared to 37 percent of seniors in the West, a 

24 point difference. In 1992, only a 10 point difference between the two regions existed; 56 percent of 

seniors in the Northeast were in academic programs, compared to 44 percent in the West. 

The tendency of seniors from high socioeconomic status families to be enrolled in college 

preparatory programs in significantly greater proportions than those for low socioeconomic backgrounds 

in 1972 and 1980 remained strong in 1992. Only 28 percent of seniors from families in the lowest SES 

quartile were in college preparatory programs compared to 63 percent of seniors from the highest SES 

quartile. As expected, a positive relationship between tested achievement and program placement was also 

evident in all three cohorts. 

18 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 2.1

Percent of Seniors Reporting Enrollment in General, Academic,

and Vocational High School Programs

General Academic Vocational

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

TOTAL 31.8 36.9 40.0 45.7 38.7 47.7 22.4 24.4 12.3 

SEX

Male 33.1 38.0 40.9 48.3 39.0 46.6 18.6 23.0 12.5 

Female 30.6 35.9 39.1 43.2 38.4 48.8 26.2 25.7 12.1 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 34.2 35.2 40.2 32.7 33.0 42.8 33.1 31.7 17.0 

White 30.6 37.1 38.7 48.6 39.8 49.9 20.8 23.1 11.4 

Asian 33.7 29.0 34.6 53.5 52.4 56.2 12.8 18.6 9.2 

Hispanic 42.4 41.6 50.6 27.4 26.9 35.4 30.1 31.5 14.1 

REGION

Northeast 16.5 23.7 31.1 61.1 51.4 55.8 22.4 24.9 13.1 

Midwest 35.2 40.4 39.5 42.2 35.3 46.0 22.6 24.4 14.5 

South 35.3 39.4 41.1 39.9 32.8 46.2 24.8 27.8 12.7 

West 44.1 45.4 47.6 37.2 34.5 44.5 18.6 20.1 8.0 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low 39.6 43.4 49.1 25.2 21.1 28.3 35.2 35.5 22.6 

Middle 32.1 38.4 39.0 45.0 36.3 48.8 22.8 25.3 12.2 

High 23.3 27.5 33.6 68.1 62.0 63.0 8.6 10.5 3.4 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE - MATH AND READING

Low 44.8 47.1 52.5 17.0 13.8 20.6 38.2 39.1 26.9 

Middle 32.7 46.1 42.1 45.2 25.2 44.2 22.0 28.7 13.6 

High 15.2 34.4 21.3 79.2 44.1 76.1 5.6 21.5 2.6 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

19 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Trends in Course-taking from 1982 to 1992

In the 1970s, many educators focused their attention on issues of equity and relevance of the 

curriculum. In the 1980s, the school reform movement promoted a return to basics, that emphasized 

increased course work in math and science, as well as taking a full sequence of English and history 

courses. Transcripts were not collected for NLS 1972 seniors or the 1980 High School and Beyond 

seniors. However, transcripts were collected for the 1982 High School and Beyond seniors and for the 

1992 NELS:88 seniors. Table 2.2 and Figures 2.2 and 2.3 are taken from The Condition of Education,

1994, and are based on high school graduates in 1982 and 1992. 

Core curriculum. In A Nation at Risk, the Commission on Excellence in Education 

recommended that all students complete at least four years of English, three years of social studies, three 

years of mathematics, and three years of science, as well as a half year of computer science. Table 2.2 

presents information on the percentage of high school graduates who took the recommended sequence of 

courses in 1982 and 1992, though these data do not include the computer science requirements. These 

data indicate that there has been a marked increase in the percentage of students who have completed the 

recommended number of units in these core areas. 

• The proportion of high school graduates who met the minimum recommended standard 

increased from 13 percent in 1982 to 47 percent in 1992, a 34 point change. 

• Change occurred in all groups; however, some disparities across racial and ethnic groups 

persist. While there is no difference between blacks and whites or Asians and whites, 

a smaller proportion of Hispanics than whites (36 percent compared to 48 percent) 

completed the recommended courses in 1992. 

• A gap between graduates of urban and rural schools emerged in 1992. In 1982, 

approximately the same percentage of graduates of urban, suburban, and rural schools met 

the minimum recommended standard. Ten years later, 51 percent of the graduates from 

urban schools completed the recommended coursework compared to only 42 percent of 

graduates from rural schools. 

• In 1982, 10 percent of high school graduates whose parents had not finished high school 

completed the recommended courses compared to 20 percent of graduates whose parents 

had completed college. In 1992, the groups were nearly equal. 

20 
____________________________________________________________________________________

Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 2.2

Percentage of High School Graduates Earning the

Recommended* Units in Core Courses: 1982 and 1992

1982 1992

TOTAL 12.7 46.8 

SEX

Male 

Female 

13.7 

11.8 

46.5 

47.2 

RACE/ETHNICITY

White 

Black 

Hispanic 

Asian 

13.8 

10.8 

6.7 

19.8 

48.5 

43.7 

36.0 

50.7 

URBANICITY

Urban 

Suburban 

Rural 

12.9 

13.2 

11.7 

50.8 

47.6 

42.5 

PARENT HIGHEST EDUCATION LEVEL

Did not finish high school 

High School graduate 

Some college 

College graduate 

10.0 

10.7 

14.8 

19.5 

45.3 

47.2 

45.7 

48.5 

*The panel’s recommendation of 0.5 units in computer science was not included in the table. 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

21 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Mathematics and science course-taking. Figure 2.2 presents information on the mathematics 

courses taken by students who graduated from high school in 1982 and 1992. Graduates from the Class 

of 1992 were more likely than graduates from the Class of 1982 to have taken advanced mathematics 

courses. 

• The percentage of graduates who took both advanced algebra and geometry increased from 

29 percent in 1982 to 50 percent in 1992. 

• The proportion of high school graduates who completed calculus doubled from 4 percent 

in 1982 to 10 percent in 1992. 

• Enrollment in remedial math courses declined during this period from 32 percent in 1982 

to 17 percent in 1992. 

Information on science courses completed by high school graduates is presented in Figure 2.3. 

Again, sharp differences between the two cohorts of high school graduates are evident. 

• Over half, 54 percent, of 1992 graduates completed both biology and chemistry, compared 

to only 29 percent of 1982 graduates. 

• In 1982, only 10 percent of high school graduates had completed biology, chemistry, and 

physics; by 1992, this proportion had doubled--22 percent of graduates that year had taken 

the three science courses. 

Tables presenting subgroup differences in mathematics and science course-taking are included in 

the Appendix. 

22 
Figure 2.2 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 
Figure 2.3 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Tested Achievement in Mathematics and Reading

Differences in the content and scaling of the tests administered as part of the National Longitudinal 

Study, High School and Beyond, and the National Education Longitudinal Study limit our ability to 

measure change in tested achievement over time.18 For example, it is not possible to quantify how much 

certain groups have gained or lost over time. However, it is possible to examine whether the gaps 

between subgroups that were evident in 1972 still existed in 1992. To answer this question, the "effect 

size," can be calculated, which measures the magnitude of the difference between groups.19 For example, 

the difference in tested achievement between blacks and whites or between males and females can be 

expressed as an effect size. The effect size between groups in 1972 can then be compared to the effect 

size between those same groups in 1992. The significance of the change between 1972 and 1992 can then 

be tested. 

Tables 2.3 and 2.420 present data on tested achievement in reading and mathematics among 

seniors in 1972, 1980, and 1992. Note that mean scores can be compared only within years, not across 

years. Cross-year comparisons must be based on effect sizes. Before discussing these tables, it is 

important to note that one of the major changes between the 1972 and 1992 tests was that the 1992 test 

measured a broader range of achievement; the ceiling of the test was raised substantially and the floor was 

lowered somewhat. Thus, if a gap between groups appeared in 1992 that was not observed in 1972, this 

might be an artifact of the change in the test itself, rather than achievement. However, if a gap between 

groups narrowed between 1972 and 1992, we can be reasonably confident that this reflects real change. 

Readers may wish to compare 1972-92 seniors’ results with data over the same period from the 

NAEP trend sample of 17-year olds.21 

Reading. Differences in reading achievement between seniors from white and minority groups 

decreased between 1972 and 1992. The effect size of the difference between blacks and whites decreased 

from .97 in 1972 to .74 in 1992. The disparity in reading achievement between Hispanic seniors and 

18 See Appendix D for a more detailed description of differences in the achievement tests in the three studies. 

19 The effect size = (M1 - M2)/SDpooled, where M1 and M2 are the means of the scores from the two groups being compared 

and SDpooled is the pooled standard deviation. See Appendix D for additional information. 

20 The 1972 and 1980 portions of these tables were reproduced from Rock, D.A., Ekstrom, R.B., Goertz, M.E., Hilton, T.L., 

Pollack, J.M., & Fetters, W.B. (1985). Factors Associated with Decline of Test Scores of High School Seniors, 1972 to 1980.

Washington, D.C.: Center for Statistics (CS85-217). This report breaks the Hispanic category into three subgroups. The 1992 data 

for these tables were analyzed using these subgroups for purposes of comparison to these previously published data. 

21 For NAEP trends in tested achievement from 1969-1992, see I. Mullis et al., 1994, NAEP 1992 Trends in Academic Progress, 

which summarizes findings for mathematics and reading, as well as science and writing. NAEP data show that reading achievement 

at age 17 was higher in 1992 than in 1971, and that mathematics achievement for this age group declined from 1973 levels through 

1982, with performance returning to 1973 levels by 1992. The NAEP trend sample also shows that differences in average 

proficiency between seventeen year old white and black students narrowed between 1973 and 1992 in mathematics and between 1971 

and 1992 in reading. By 1992, age 17 differences in average proficiency between white and Hispanic students also had narrowed 

both in mathematics and reading (see Mullis et al. 1994, Figure 3). Although the longitudinal data sets, particularly NELS:88, are 

rich sources of data on both family and school processes, this report is descriptive in its focus, and does not attempt to investigate 

the school or family factors that may account for changes in achievement over time. However, for a recent discussion of the 

relationship between changes in the family and changes in student achievement (and, implicitly, of school versus family effects on 

achievement trends) see D.W. Grissmer et al., 1994, Student Achievement and the Changing American Family (Santa Monica, CA: 

RAND). Grissmer et al. employ NAEP test data in conjunction with family context data from NLSY79 and NELS:88. 

25 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 2.3

Effect Sizes of Changes in Reading Scores for Various Subgroups

in 1972, 1980, and 1992

NLS 1972 HS&B 1980 NELS 1992

Mean Effect size Mean Effect size Mean Effect size

TOTAL 9.89 8.84 33.18 

SEX

Male 9.83 8.95 32.01 

Female 9.95 0.02 8.96 0.00 34.40 0.24 

SOCIOECONOMIC QUARTILE

Low SES 7.65 6.73 28.25 

Mid SES 9.92 0.47 9.05 0.48 33.26 0.52 

High SES 12.13 0.94 11.20 0.94 38.13 1.07 

RACE/ETHNICITY

White 10.56 9.60 34.66 

Black 5.94 0.97 5.56 0.82 27.47 0.74 

Asian 10.14 0.09 9.11 0.10 33.77 0.09 

Mexican 6.28 0.89 5.60 0.80 28.68 0.61 

Puerto Rican 6.11 0.93 5.68 0.78 30.23 0.45 

Other Hispanic 6.68 0.81 5.73 0.78 30.43 0.43 

TYPE OF SCHOOL

Public 9.78 8.66 32.75 

Private 11.41 0.33 11.31 0.52 37.32 0.45 

Catholic 11.61 0.37 10.06 0.28 37.01 0.43 

REGION

Northeast 10.55 9.57 34.65 

Midwest 9.97 0.12 9.21 0.07 33.79 0.09 

South 9.14 0.28 7.83 0.34 31.79 0.28 

West 9.88 0.13 9.01 0.11 33.38 0.13 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 8.48 0.77 7.71 0.76 30.94 0.70 

Academic 11.99 11.33 37.38 

Vocational 7.51 1.00 6.81 0.96 27.80 1.07 

LOCATION OF SCHOOL

Urban 9.46 8.21 33.52 

Suburban 10.49 0.21 9.29 0.21 33.76 0.02 

Rural 9.27 0.04 8.52 0.06 32.19 0.13 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National 

Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

26 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

white seniors also decreased. The effect size among Mexicans decreased from .89 to .61; among Puerto 

Ricans it decreased from .93 to .45; among other Hispanics it declined from .81 to .43. 

In 1972, a gap existed between seniors attending urban high schools and those attending suburban 

high schools. In 1992, this gap had narrowed. The effect size declined from .21 in 1972 to .02 in 1992, 

a significant decrease. 

Because of the change in the test between 1972 and 1992, no conclusions can be drawn concerning 

some of the apparent increased gaps shown in Table 2.3. While there appears to be an increased gap in 

tested achievement between seniors from the highest and lowest SES quartiles, this may be a function of 

the increased ceiling of the 1992 test. 

Mathematics. In mathematics achievement, the gap between males and females has decreased. 

In 1972, the effect size of the difference in mathematics achievement between males and females was .23. 

In 1992, the comparable effect size was .08. In other words, there is now essentially no difference 

between males and females in tested math proficiency. 

Differences in mathematics achievement across racial groups also decreased. Black-white 

differences in 1972 were estimated with an effect size of 1.09; in 1992 the effect size was .87. The gap 

between Hispanics and whites also decreased. The effect size between whites and Mexicans decreased 

from .86 to .70; between whites and Puerto Ricans it decreased from 1.1 to .58; between whites and other 

Hispanics it declined from .86 to .38. 

Again, these data indicate that there may be higher SES disparity between high and low SES. The 

reader is cautioned that this may also result from the fact that the raised ceiling of the 1992 test may have 

allowed more advantaged students to demonstrate a higher level of knowledge than was possible on the 

earlier test. 

High and low-achieving students. Another angle on the achievement trends is afforded by 

comparing the characteristics of students at the high and low extremes of the achievement distribution. 

This allows us to determine whether there have been changes in the relative representation of different 

subpopulations in the upper and lower ranks of academic achievement. Our target was to analyze the 

composition of the upper and lower 15 percentage points of the distributions. However, the relatively 

small number of test items used in the 1972 test produced percentile breaks that were somewhat higher 

or lower than 15 percent. 

Table 2.5 shows that in reading the composition of the lowest 14 percent of the achievement score 

distribution included a higher proportion of males in 1992 than in 1972. While black and Hispanic youth 

were overrepresented in the lowest 14 percent in 1972 and 1992, they were less so in 1992. The 

composition of the highest 18 percent included more Hispanics in 1992 than in 1972. 

Similar patterns are found in mathematics. The lower end of the distribution had a higher 

proportion of male and lower proportion of Hispanic. The representation of Hispanics increased in the 

higher end of the distribution. 

In contrast to the lessening of racial and ethnic achievement differences, the socioeconomic 

composition of the high ends of both the reading and mathematics distributions became more skewed in 

favor of middle- and high-SES students. Note that there was a significantly diminished representation of 

low-SES quartile students in the top group. 

27 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 2.4

Effect Sizes of Changes in Mathematics Scores

for Various Subgroups in 1972, 1980, and 1992

Mathematics Test NLS 1972 HS&B 1980 NELS 1992

Mean Effect size Mean Effect size Mean Effect size

TOTAL 12.94 11.90 48.84 

SEX

Male 13.79 12.83 49.39 

Female 12.09 0.23 11.39 0.20 48.28 0.08 

SOCIOECONOMIC QUARTILE

Low SES 9.39 8.44 40.68 

Mid SES 12.90 0.50 12.16 0.55 48.76 0.62 

High SES 16.62 1.08 15.83 1.14 57.37 1.35 

RACE/ETHNICITY

White 13.95 12.98 51.01 

Black 6.50 1.09 6.69 0.92 39.24 0.87 

Asian 15.96 0.29 15.50 0.36 53.27 0.17 

Mexican 8.02 0.86 7.54 0.79 41.52 0.70 

Puerto Rican 6.33 1.10 7.19 0.84 43.13 0.58 

Other Hispanic 8.04 0.86 8.08 0.71 45.81 0.38 

TYPE OF SCHOOL

Public 12.79 11.59 48.19 

Private 15.50 0.37 15.48 0.54 55.77 0.53 

Catholic 15.36 0.36 14.35 0.39 54.30 0.43 

REGION

Northeast 13.90 13.36 51.73 

Midwest 13.29 0.09 12.59 0.11 50.14 0.11 

South 11.95 0.27 10.07 0.46 46.53 0.37 

West 12.37 0.21 12.04 0.18 48.27 0.24 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 10.41 0.97 9.89 0.99 44.79 0.90 

Academic 16.66 16.17 55.99 

Vocational 8.78 1.27 8.48 1.24 39.90 1.35 

LOCATION OF SCHOOL

Urban 12.16 10.98 48.72 

Suburban 13.81 0.23 12.70 0.24 50.01 0.09 

Rural 12.15 0.00 11.24 0.04 47.49 0.09 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National 

Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

28 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table. 2.5

Percent of Seniors in Highest and Lowest

15 Percent in Reading and Mathematics

READING MATHEMATICS

LOWEST

14

PERCENT

HIGHEST

18

PERCENT

LOWEST

14

PERCENT

HIGHEST

18

PERCENT

TOTAL

72 92 72 92 72 92 72 92

14.3 14.3 18.0 18.0 13.9 13.9 17.7 17.7 

SEX

Male 

Female 

15.0 

13.5 

17.7 

10.7 

17.5 

18.6 

15.7 

20.5 

11.9 

15.9 

14.1 

13.7 

21.3 

14.1 

19.7 

15.7 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 

White 

Asian 

Hispanic 

34.9 

10.7 

12.8 

31.5 

26.4 

11.0 

15.8 

22.2 

4.1 

20.3 

21.3 

4.5 

5.4 

21.2 

21.9 

8.6 

37.5 

10.4 

9.4 

26.3 

33.2 

9.8 

8.7 

21.7 

3.1 

20.1 

28.9 

3.6 

4.3 

20.8 

27.8 

7.3 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low SES 

Middle Two SES 

High SES 

24.9 

12.9 

6.3 

25.4 

12.8 

6.2 

9.0 

16.4 

30.6 

5.9 

17.0 

32.3 

24.7 

12.8 

5.3 

27.4 

12.2 

3.8 

8.7 

16.0 

30.5 

4.8 

14.6 

36.7 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National 

Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

29 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Participation in Extracurricular Activities

Extracurricular activities offer students opportunities to learn to work together with other students 

as a team, develop leadership skills, and acquire a host of other personal skills not taught in the traditional 

academic curriculum. 

Tables 2.6a and 2.6b present information on participation in eight common extracurricular 

activities. Participation in most of the extracurricular activities examined here declined between 1972 and 

1992. 

• Seniors’ participation declined in student government (from 19 to 15 percent, music, 

drama, or debate (from 33 to 28 percent, athletics (from 45 to 43 percent, cheerleading 

(from 17 to 8 percent, and vocational clubs (from 22 to 18 percent). 

• Participation in honorary societies increased between 1972 and 1992, from 14 percent to 

18 percent. 

• The proportion of seniors taking part in subject matter clubs remained steady as did 

involvement in work on the school newspaper or yearbook. 

Most of these changes were broadly based. An examination of the trends in participation for the 

various subgroups indicates that changes were relatively consistent across groups. One exception to this 

is participation in subject matter clubs, which appears to be attracting larger numbers of high SES, highachieving seniors in academic track programs. 

• Participation in subject matter clubs declined among low SES seniors, from 24 to 19 

percent, while the participation rate of high SES seniors increased from 28 to 32 percent. 

Similar trends are visible among low- and high-achieving students. 

• Similarly, the participation in subject clubs decreased among vocational students, from 24 

to 15 percent, while participation of academic track students increased from 30 to 34 

percent. 

• Although as noted above, overall participation in subject matter clubs did not change, the 

proportion of males increased from 20 to 23 percent, while the proportion of females 

decreased from 31 to 27 percent. Participation among black seniors declined from 33 to 

21 percent. 

30 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 2.6a

Percent of Seniors Reporting Participation in Extracurricular Activities

Student Government Honorary Societies Subject Matter Clubs Music, Drama, Debate

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

TOTAL 19.4 18.5 15.4 14.4 17.1 18.5 25.6 23.8 25.1 33.0 36.5 27.9 

SEX

Male 18.1 15.8 13.1 10.7 13.8 14.4 20.3 19.0 22.8 26.8 28.4 23.0 

Female 20.8 21.0 17.7 18.1 20.1 22.7 30.9 28.3 27.4 39.2 44.0 32.7 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 25.3 23.1 16.7 11.7 13.7 14.0 33.1 28.8 20.6 40.8 43.2 32.2 

White 19.2 17.7 15.4 15.1 17.8 19.6 25.0 22.9 25.8 32.8 35.8 28.1 

Asian 24.9 23.6 14.6 23.6 23.4 27.2 26.6 29.6 32.3 21.9 36.6 25.8 

Hispanic 16.0 16.7 14.6 10.2 11.9 12.4 24.2 24.7 22.6 27.3 31.1 22.3 

REGION

Northeast 18.6 18.4 15.3 12.7 16.0 18.5 21.8 19.6 23.1 31.7 34.5 28.4 

Midwest 18.9 16.2 14.9 12.1 15.2 19.1 26.8 21.4 25.4 35.5 37.1 32.0 

South 20.6 19.2 15.3 18.0 19.6 19.5 31.5 30.8 28.2 32.9 37.9 25.6 

West 19.9 20.3 16.7 15.7 15.7 16.2 14.3 21.9 21.6 31.0 35.2 25.6 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low 14.0 13.3 11.5 10.3 11.1 10.2 24.4 22.6 19.4 30.1 31.0 24.1 

Middle 18.6 18.0 15.2 13.2 16.3 16.8 25.2 23.8 24.5 32.0 35.8 27.8 

High 26.6 25.2 19.6 21.2 25.1 29.7 27.7 25.7 31.7 38.0 43.8 31.6 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 15.1 14.4 11.0 8.1 9.6 9.1 21.2 19.6 18.3 30.8 34.5 26.3 

Academic 26.0 26.7 21.6 22.3 29.0 30.9 29.6 28.7 34.2 39.4 44.1 32.8 

Vocational 11.9 11.5 8.9 7.3 8.9 5.8 23.8 23.1 14.7 23.1 27.7 16.2 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE - MATH AND READING

Low 13.9 12.0 10.8 4.8 6.1 5.6 24.6 23.5 18.1 29.0 31.8 23.3 

Middle 18.4 17.6 14.4 10.1 12.6 11.1 24.3 23.3 23.3 31.8 35.6 26.5 

High 27.4 25.4 20.2 33.7 36.3 42.2 29.0 27.1 37.1 39.4 43.4 35.2 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

31 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 2.6b

Percent of Seniors Reporting Participation in Extracurricular Activities

Athletics Cheerleading Newspaper or Yearbook Vocational Clubs

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

TOTAL 44.9 51.8 42.9 17.3 15.1 7.5 20.2 19.9 18.8 22.3 23.1 17.7 

SEX

Male 58.2 64.0 55.3 5.3 4.5 2.0 14.7 15.4 14.0 15.5 19.1 14.7 

Female 31.6 40.6 30.3 29.1 24.8 13.0 25.5 24.0 23.5 29.0 26.7 20.6 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 49.6 54.4 41.4 21.2 17.6 10.6 20.7 17.8 14.3 32.7 30.1 22.5 

White 45.1 51.6 44.1 17.3 14.9 7.4 20.4 20.1 19.7 21.3 22.3 17.6 

Asian 36.0 48.8 45.2 13.1 14.6 5.1 16.2 21.4 18.9 12.1 9.6 8.8 

Hispanic 38.5 49.4 35.3 14.8 12.3 6.6 16.2 15.8 16.8 26.3 27.3 16.4 

REGION

Northeast 47.2 54.5 48.6 14.0 11.5 6.9 22.0 24.6 28.3 13.1 10.6 8.1 

Midwest 46.7 52.8 45.8 20.0 15.3 8.0 21.0 18.4 18.2 22.0 20.0 18.4 

South 42.2 48.2 38.8 18.7 18.0 8.5 20.1 18.8 15.0 36.3 40.0 27.2 

West 42.3 52.9 40.6 16.0 14.0 6.0 16.0 16.8 16.5 15.7 15.8 10.0 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low 38.7 43.2 33.9 14.8 13.0 6.7 17.6 15.7 14.2 30.9 30.6 24.8 

Middle 44.6 52.1 41.7 18.4 15.9 8.0 20.2 19.2 17.5 22.6 24.1 18.5 

High 51.7 61.7 53.9 17.7 15.6 7.7 22.8 25.3 25.5 13.1 13.4 9.3 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 41.0 49.9 37.8 15.9 14.0 7.1 17.1 16.7 14.6 23.3 22.6 16.7 

Academic 53.4 60.1 50.8 19.0 17.2 8.8 24.3 26.9 24.9 14.8 13.1 12.6 

Vocational 32.9 42.4 30.1 15.9 13.3 4.9 16.0 13.2 11.2 36.3 39.3 41.2 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE - MATH AND READING

Low 38.3 46.3 40.3 17.0 15.0 8.5 16.6 14.6 12.0 31.0 33.0 25.0 

Middle 45.4 49.4 42.3 18.1 16.0 7.6 18.7 18.7 17.1 22.2 24.2 20.0 

High 50.0 54.0 49.0 16.2 13.5 7.9 26.7 27.1 27.9 13.8 12.4 11.4 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

32 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Chapter 3. Seniors’ Plans for Next Year

The declines in vocational program enrollments seen in the last chapter suggest that fewer seniors 

are planning to enter the labor force directly after high school. Presumably they would then be oriented 

toward some form of postsecondary education, but it is not clear which of several institutional options is 

absorbing them. This chapter focuses on seniors’ educational and work plans for their first year after high 

school, and some of the factors that influenced their decisions. Just as some patterns of change in program 

and course enrollments differed by sex, race, and socioeconomic status, patterns of postsecondary plans 

might also differ. 

Figure 3.1 provides information on the percent of seniors who intend to engage in full-time work, 

postsecondary education, or some other activity (for example, full-time homemaking or travel) during the 

year immediately following high school graduation. 

• The proportion of seniors planning to work has fallen from 32 percent in 1972 to 14 

percent in 1992. 

• In 1972, 59 percent of seniors reported that they would continue on to school immediately 

after high school graduation compared to 78 percent in 1992. 

• Compared to 1972, the proportion of seniors planning to engage in "other" activities such 

as travel, part-time work, or full-time homemaking declined slightly from 9 percent to 8 

percent in 1992. 

33 
Figure 3.1 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Plans to Work Full-time in the Year Following Graduation

The proportion of seniors who planned to work full-time in the year following graduation has 

fallen dramatically as shown in Table 3.1. In 1972, 32 percent of seniors planned to work full-time during 

the year after high school graduation; in 1992, only 14 percent of seniors planned to work full-time during 

the year following high school graduation. This change was evident across all regions. 

In both 1972 and 1992, males were more likely than females to plan on working immediately after 

high school. However, during this 20 year period, the percentage of both groups who planned to work 

immediately after high school graduation declined. The percentage of females who planned to work fulltime after high school decreased by half from 29 percent to 13 percent, while the percentage of males 

declined from 35 percent to 16 percent. 

Differences between whites and other groups in postsecondary plans that were apparent in 1972 

had disappeared by 1992. In 1972, blacks and Hispanics were more likely than whites to plan on working 

after high school graduation: 37 percent of blacks and 38 percent of Hispanics planned to work compared 

to only 31 percent of whites. A smaller percentage of Asian seniors, 18 percent, planned to work full-time 

after high school graduation. By 1992, whites were no more or less likely to work after graduation than 

blacks, Asians, or Hispanics. 

The relationship between socioeconomic status and plans to work after graduation that was evident 

in 1972 persisted into 1992. In both years, seniors from families in the lowest SES quartile were more 

likely to plan to work than seniors from the highest SES quartile. In 1972, 47 percent of seniors from 

families in the lowest socioeconomic status planned to work after high school graduation compared to 14 

percent of those from the highest SES quartile. In 1992, 25 percent of seniors in the lowest SES quartile 

planned to work, compared to only 5 percent of those in the highest SES quartile. 

The decrease in the percentage of seniors planning to work after graduation can be seen in all three 

types of high school programs. In 1972, over half (56 percent) of seniors in vocational programs planned 

to work full-time following high school graduation, compared to only 32 percent in 1992. In 1972, 42 

percent of seniors in general education programs planned to work following high school graduation, 

compared to 19 percent in 1992. Only a small proportion (13 percent) of 1972 seniors in academic 

programs planned to work after graduation; in 1992 this had decreased to 5 percent. 

Seniors who tested in the lowest quartile were far more likely to plan to work after high school 

than those who tested in the highest quartile in all three years. 

35 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 3.1

Percent of Seniors Planning to Work Full-Time

in Year Following High School Graduation

1972 1980 1992

TOTAL 31.9 35.0 14.2 

SEX

Male 34.6 40.3 15.9 

Female 29.2 30.0 12.6 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 37.4 35.8 11.4 

White 30.6 35.2 14.4 

Asian 18.1 12.8 10.8 

Hispanic 38.5 41.3 16.4 

REGION

Northeast 31.4 32.6 11.2 

Midwest 33.8 37.0 15.0 

South 33.2 38.4 14.7 

West 27.5 31.5 15.2 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low 46.6 49.7 24.8 

Middle 33.4 36.6 14.1 

High 13.8 15.8 5.1 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 41.9 44.4 19.1 

Academic 13.2 13.4 4.8 

Vocational 55.9 55.9 32.0 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE - MATH AND READING

Low 52.3 56.5 26.7 

Middle 30.6 41.3 14.4 

High 12.5 29.0 4.2 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

36 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Type of Postsecondary Institution Seniors Plan to Attend in the Year Following Graduation

The percentage of high school seniors who planned to attend four-year colleges or academic 

programs at two year colleges immediately after high school increased between 1972 and 1992, as can 

be seen in Figure 3.2. Overall, 59 percent of high school seniors in 1972 planned to continue their 

education immediately after graduation. In 1992, 76 percent reported having such plans. Blacks showed 

a significant increase in postsecondary plans over this period (20 percent) as did Hispanics (23 percent). 

The proportion of seniors planning to enroll in vocational programs at two year colleges remained 

constant, while the percentage of seniors planning to attend trade or technical schools declined. 

• In 1972, about one-third (34 percent) of all seniors planned to attend a four-year college 

in the year following high school graduation; while in 1992, over half of all seniors 

planned to attend a four-year college. 

• The percentage of seniors planning to enroll in an academic program in a two-year college 

increased slightly from 11 percent in 1972 to 13 percent in 1992. 

• Approximately the same proportion of seniors in 1972 (5 percent) and 1992 (6 percent) 

planned to enroll in a vocational program at a two-year college. 

• About 9 percent of 1972 seniors planned to enroll in a trade or technical school after high 

school. By 1992, only half that percentage (4 percent) planned to continue their education 

at a trade or technical school. 

These changes have not occurred uniformly across all subgroups. Very different patterns of 

change have occurred among males and females (see Table 3.2). 

• In 1972, a slightly higher percentage of males (35 percent) than females (32 percent) 

planned to go on to a four-year college immediately after high school. By 1992, this was 

reversed--a significantly greater percentage of females (58 percent) than males (50 percent) 

planned to attend a four-year college in the year after high school graduation. 

• In 1972, approximately the same proportion (11 percent) of males and females planned 

to enroll in academic programs in two-year colleges in the year after high school 

graduation. By 1992, a larger proportion of females (15 percent) than males (11 percent) 

planned to attend a two-year academic program. 

• In 1972, females were more likely than males to plan to attend a trade or technical school 

(10 percent of females compared to 7 percent of males). In 1992, a slightly higher 

proportion of males than females planned to enroll in a trade or technical school during 

the year after high school graduation. 

37 
Figure 3.2 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

The patterns of attendance among ethnic and racial groups has been relatively stable. While the 

proportion of all racial and ethnic groups continuing their educations at four-year colleges increased, the 

between-group differences have remained fairly constant. 

• Black and white seniors planned to attend four-year colleges in similar proportions in both 

1972 and 1992. In 1972, 32 percent of blacks and 35 percent of whites planned to attend 

a four-year college. In 1992, 52 percent of black seniors and 55 percent of white seniors 

planned to attend a four-year college. 

• Hispanic seniors were less likely than white seniors to plan to attend a four year college 

in both 1972 and 1992 (24 percent of Hispanics compared to 35 percent of whites in 1972 

and 46 percent of Hispanics compared to 55 percent of whites in 1992). 

• In 1992, Asian seniors were more likely than white seniors to plan to attend a four-year 

college immediately after high school graduation (65 percent of Asians compared to 55 

percent of whites). 

• A larger proportion of blacks and Hispanics planned to attend an academic program in a 

two-year college in 1992 than in 1972: the proportion of blacks increased from 5 percent 

to 11 percent, while the proportion of Hispanics increased from 12 percent to 20 percent. 

No change occurred among white seniors. 

• In comparison to 1972, lower percentages of black, of white, and of Hispanic seniors 

planned to continue their education at a trade or technical school in 1992. The difference 

for Asian seniors was not significant. 

There has been marked growth in the proportion of seniors in all high school programs (general 

education, academic, and vocational) planning to attend a four-year college after high school graduation. 

It is interesting to note the number of seniors planning to attend four-year colleges who have not 

completed college preparatory programs. 

• In 1972, 18 percent of seniors enrolled in general education programs planned to go on 

to a four-year college immediately. By 1992, that number had more than doubled: nearly 

40 percent of seniors in general education programs planned to continue on to a four-year 

college. 

• The percentage of vocational students planning to continue their education at a four-year 

or two-year college increased between 1972 and 1992, while the percentage planning to 

attend trade or technical school decreased. 

The proportion of seniors planning to attend a four-year college has increased in all socioeconomic 

groups and among seniors at all achievement levels. 

39 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 3.2 Percent of All Seniors Who Plan to Continue Education Next Year at Four-Year Colleges,

Two-Year Academic Programs, Two-Year Vocational Programs, or Trade and Technical Schools

Four-Year Program Two-Year Academic Two-Year Vocational Trade or Technical

School

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

TOTAL 33.6 38.3 54.0 11.3 8.7 12.8 5.4 5.8 5.9 8.8 6.0 3.6 

SEX

Male 34.6 37.2 50.4 11.4 7.1 11.0 5.2 5.2 6.1 7.2 5.4 4.1 

Female 32.5 39.2 57.5 11.2 10.2 14.7 5.5 6.4 5.7 10.4 6.7 3.2 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 32.0 39.0 51.7 5.4 6.1 10.6 4.8 5.4 6.2 11.6 7.5 4.9 

White 34.8 38.3 54.9 12.0 8.8 12.3 5.3 5.7 5.9 8.6 5.8 3.6 

Asian 46.7 61.9 64.6 17.6 12.1 11.9 7.7 7.2 3.5 3.6 3.6 2.3 

Hispanic 23.6 28.1 46.3 11.6 9.5 19.7 10.5 6.9 6.9 7.9 6.8 3.3 

REGION

Northeast 37.2 44.7 63.3 11.7 18.7 11.6 4.7 4.4 3.6 7.8 5.5 2.4 

Midwest 33.5 37.4 56.0 7.8 22.8 10.0 5.0 5.5 6.5 10.3 7.2 4.4 

South 34.0 35.8 32.4 10.2 8.2 11.5 4.2 5.5 6.3 9.9 6.1 4.2 

West 27.4 33.1 16.4 18.2 14.1 20.4 8.9 8.6 6.6 6.0 5.3 2.9 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low 18.7 21.7 32.1 6.9 6.2 14.5 5.0 5.8 8.0 11.1 8.2 6.5 

Middle 29.2 34.2 52.3 12.3 9.7 14.4 6.1 6.6 6.8 9.8 6.9 3.5 

High 58.3 64.3 76.2 13.6 9.2 8.5 4.2 4.4 2.4 4.4 2.2 1.4 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 17.6 25.0 39.8 10.9 9.0 17.1 5.8 6.2 7.3 9.7 6.8 5.0 

Academic 57.7 66.7 75.2 14.9 9.8 10.0 4.8 4.1 2.5 5.2 2.8 1.4 

Vocational 7.1 12.5 20.8 4.4 6.2 10.7 5.9 7.7 14.4 14.7 10.2 8.1 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE - MATH AND READING

Low 10.8 14.8 22.4 6.5 5.6 17.4 4.9 6.2 10.5 11.4 7.9 7.8 

Middle 30.6 26.2 51.2 13.8 9.0 14.7 6.0 7.2 6.6 9.9 8.2 3.9 

High 65.0 42.5 81.7 10.8 10.9 5.1 3.9 6.5 1.8 3.8 6.4 0.8 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

40 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

College Selection

Students consider many factors when selecting a college, including financial considerations, such 

as the cost of attendance and the availability of financial aid; and scholastic considerations, such as the 

availability of desired courses and the institution’s academic reputation. 

During the past 20 years, attention has shifted away from a concern with tuition and expenses, 

toward a concern with the amount of aid available to finance the cost of education. Figure 3.3 presents 

information on the percentage of seniors who consider financial aid, expenses, academic reputation, and 

course offerings to be "very important" in choosing a college. The proportion of college-bound seniors 

who reported that expenses were "very important" in selecting a college declined between 1972 and 1992. 

During the same period, concern with the availability of financial aid increased. 

• In 1972, 40 percent of college-bound seniors said that tuition and expenses were "very 

important" considerations in selecting a college; in 1992, that number had fallen to 30 

percent. 

• In 1972, 29 percent of college-bound seniors reported that the availability of financial aid 

was a "very important" consideration in choosing a college; in 1992, 46 percent said that 

financial aid was "very important." 

Concerns about college expenses and financial aid varied among subgroups of the population, and 

groups have changed somewhat differently over time, as shown in Tables 3.3a & b. 

• The percentage of black, white, and Hispanic seniors who reported that tuition and 

expenses were very important factors in selecting a college declined between 1972 and 

1992. No significant difference was found for Asian seniors. 

• In both 1972 and 1992, college-bound males were less likely than college-bound females 

to say that college expenses and financial aid were "very important." 

• In 1972, less than one-quarter (24 percent) of white seniors reported that the availability 

of financial aid was a very important consideration in choosing a college; by 1992 that 

number had increased to 40 percent. 

• While the percentage of black seniors who reported that financial aid was very important 

did not change significantly between 1972 and 1992, black and Hispanic seniors were 

more likely than white seniors in either year to say financial aid was a very important 

consideration in selecting a college. 

• Concern about the availability of financial aid to meet college expenses increased among 

seniors from all socioeconomic groups, including those from families in the highest 

socioeconomic quartile. 

41 
Figure 3.3 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

The percentage of seniors who report that course availability is a very important consideration 

when selecting a college increased slightly between 1972 and 1992. 

The academic reputation of postsecondary institutions was considered to be "very important" by 

43 percent of seniors in 1972 and 54 percent of seniors in 1992. An increased concern about academic 

reputation was evident among almost all subgroups examined. 

43 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 3.3a

Percent of College-Bound Seniors Who Reported Various Financial Factors

Were "Very Important" in Selecting a College

Expenses Financial Aid

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

TOTAL 40.5 37.5 30.2 28.6 39.1 45.9 

SEX

Male 37.1 32.9 26.8 26.5 36.5 41.2 

Female 44.0 41.4 33.2 30.8 41.2 50.1 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 57.2 58.3 44.8 64.7 67.8 67.4 

White 38.5 34.0 26.8 24.3 34.2 40.3 

Asian 37.9 37.5 29.0 24.1 36.3 44.2 

Hispanic 53.7 47.4 38.4 54.5 52.4 61.8 

REGION

Northeast 41.8 36.0 26.7 27.4 41.6 42.0 

Midwest 41.4 37.1 28.2 30.1 37.5 44.5 

South 39.7 40.7 33.0 30.2 41.5 49.1 

West 38.2 35.4 31.6 26.1 35.0 46.2 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low 54.9 51.4 42.3 52.6 58.7 63.8 

Middle 43.7 39.2 30.9 30.2 40.8 47.8 

High 29.8 24.4 20.8 16.0 22.1 30.7 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 39.8 40.0 32.5 27.9 39.8 45.3 

Academic 40.4 33.9 26.3 28.0 37.0 44.5 

Vocational 42.7 41.8 39.0 35.0 42.4 55.3 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE - MATH AND READING

Low 46.8 46.1 34.3 39.6 47.9 47.2 

Middle 39.2 39.4 30.8 27.4 39.2 47.3 

High 39.7 29.6 21.6 26.0 33.3 42.0 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National 

Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

44 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 3.3b

Percent of College-Bound Seniors Who Reported Various Academic Factors

Were "Very Important" in Selecting a College

Course Availability Reputation of Institution

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

TOTAL 62.2 66.1 64.5 42.7 49.8 53.6 

SEX

Male 57.3 62.0 60.6 37.8 46.1 49.9 

Female 67.3 69.6 68.0 47.8 52.8 56.9 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 60.4 64.1 67.8 43.4 47.8 57.8 

White 62.6 67.1 64.6 43.1 50.4 52.6 

Asian 59.4 72.2 64.4 42.4 55.8 64.8 

Hispanic 53.3 56.0 60.9 34.4 44.0 51.1 

REGION

Northeast 70.4 73.7 70.5 43.5 55.4 62.2 

Midwest 61.3 66.6 65.6 44.1 48.9 51.5 

South 56.2 62.0 61.5 43.7 49.6 51.9 

West 59.4 62.2 61.8 38.1 44.5 50.2 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low 58.1 61.0 64.3 38.1 41.9 45.3 

Middle 63.0 66.8 64.7 41.1 48.4 50.6 

High 62.8 68.9 64.3 46.7 57.7 64.2 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 53.2 58.4 60.6 31.8 40.3 43.3 

Academic 65.4 73.2 68.4 47.1 59.4 63.3 

Vocational 60.5 60.9 66.5 36.0 41.1 42.5 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE - MATH AND READING

Low 52.1 48.6 47.0 34.0 38.5 38.1 

Middle 61.7 66.7 65.8 39.8 46.7 48.3 

High 66.7 75.1 69.1 49.7 61.1 66.9 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National 

Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

45 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Expected Major Field of Study

College-bound seniors’ expectations concerning college majors changed somewhat during the 

period being studied, as presented in Table 3.4. However, readers should interpret this table with caution, 

because in 1980 and 1992, a new response option, "a pre-professional field, (for example, prelaw, 

predentistry, and premedicine)," was given to seniors. Thus, while figures from 1972 are presented in 

Table 3.4, the results discussed here are based on comparisons between 1980 and 1992. 

The proportion of college-bound seniors intending to major in a number of fields increased 

between 1980 and 1992. 

• The percentage of seniors expecting to major in education increased from 6 percent in 

1980 to 10 percent in 1992. 

• A larger percentage of college-bound seniors planned to major in pre-professional areas 

in 1992 than in 1980, 11 percent compared to 7 percent. 

• Expected majors in social sciences increased from 8 percent in 1980 to 11 percent in 

1992. 

The percentages of college-bound seniors anticipating majors in a number of fields declined 

between 1980 and 1992. 

• In 1992, 20 percent of college-bound seniors planned to major in business, compared to 

25 percent in 1980. 

• The proportion of college-bound seniors planning to major in computer and information 

science fell from 5 percent to 3 percent. 

Information on the distribution of majors by sex, race, and socioeconomic status is presented in 

Appendix A. 

46 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 3.4

Percent of College-Bound Seniors Expecting to Major in Each Field

1972 1980 1992

Agriculture 3.2 3.4 1.7 

Architecture 1.9 2.4 2.2 

Art 4.1 5.6 3.8 

Biological Sciences 9.8 2.8 3.7 

Business 13.5 24.7 19.6 

Communications 2.0 3.7 4.3 

Computer and Information Science 1.7 5.0 3.0 

Education 12.4 6.3 10.3 

Engineering 5.4 10.1 9.5 

English 3.2 2.2 2.3 

Ethnic Studies 0.2 0.1 0.3 

Foreign Languages 1.4 1.0 0.6 

Health Occupations 12.3 9.7 10.2 

Home Economics 0.2 2.1 0.9 

Interdisciplinary Studies 1.6 0.1 0.2 

Mathematics 2.1 1.0 0.9 

Music 3.4 2.3 1.9 

Philosophy 1.4 0.6 0.4 

Physical Science 2.7 1.8 1.8 

Pre-Professional1 0.0 7.2 11.0 

Social Sciences 17.5 7.8 11.2 

1

Category not included in 1972 questionnaire. This category includes "for example, prelaw, predentistry, 

and premedicine." 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

47 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Chapter 4. Seniors’ Plans for the Future

Educational Expectations

Students’ long-term expectations for education are as important to examine as their short-term 

plans. While not all seniors plan to attend postsecondary school immediately, nearly all high school 

seniors now expect to continue their education eventually. Figure 4.1 presents information on the 

percentage of all seniors who expect to end their education with high school, attend college, complete a 

four-year college, or continue their education in graduate school. 

• In 1972, 19 percent of seniors expected to end their schooling with high school. By 1992, 

only 5 percent of seniors reported that they would not continue their education past high 

school. 

• The proportion of seniors who expected to pursue some further education, but did not 

think they would finish college, also declined from 31 percent in 1972 to 25 percent in 

1992. 

• While the proportion of seniors who expected to end their education with their bachelors 

degree was about the same in 1972 (38 percent) as in 1992 (36 percent), the proportion 

of seniors expecting to complete college and continue on to graduate school increased 

substantially. In 1972, 13 percent of seniors thought they would go on to earn a graduate 

degree; in 1992, one-third of all seniors expected to earn some type of graduate degree. 

As demonstrated in Table 4.1, sex differences in educational expectations were marked in both 

1972 and 1992. In the earlier year, males were more likely than females to expect to complete the highest 

levels of education; in the most recent year, females were more likely than males to expect to complete 

graduate school. 

• In 1972, 22 percent of females compared to 16 percent of males did not expect to 

continue their education past high school. In 1992, a lower percentage of females than 

males expected to limit their education to high school, 4 percent of females compared to 

7 percent of males. 

• Males were more likely than females to expect to complete college or graduate school in 

1972. In that year, 39 percent of males thought they would complete college, and another 

16 percent expect to pursue graduate education. Among females, 36 percent thought they 

would complete college and another 9 percent expected to pursue graduate education. 

• In 1992, females and males were equally likely to expect to end their education with a 

bachelors degree. Furthermore, females were more likely than males to expect to earn a 

graduate degree. Thirty-six percent of both sexes intended to end their education with a 

bachelors degree. However, a larger proportion of females than males intended to attain 

a graduate degree, 35 percent compared to 31 percent. 

48 
Figure 4.1 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Heightened expectations were apparent among all racial and ethnic groups, as well as 

socioeconomic groups. 

• Thirty-eight percent of black seniors in 1992 expected to obtain a graduate degree 

compared to only 14 percent in 1972. 

• Among whites, the proportion expecting to pursue a graduate degree increased from 13 

percent in 1972 to 32 percent in 1992. 

• Aspirations also increased among Asian seniors; in 1992, 42 percent expected to attain a 

graduate degree, compared to 16 percent in 1972. 

• In 1992, 31 percent of Hispanic seniors expected to earn a graduate degree, compared to 

9 percent 20 years earlier. 

• Among seniors from families in the lowest socioeconomic quartile, the proportion of those 

who expected to earn graduate degrees increased from 6 percent in 1972 to 21 percent in 

1992. 

Seniors’ preparation in high school for further academic work is somewhat related to their 

aspirations. 

• Forty-seven percent of seniors in academic high school programs in 1992 expected to 

attain a graduate degree, an increase from 21 percent in 1972. 

• Expectations for graduate school have increased among those in general and vocational 

high school programs, even though they have not taken a college preparatory program in 

high school. In 1992, nearly a quarter (23 percent) of seniors in general education 

programs expected to attain a graduate degree, compared to 5 percent in 1972. And 15 

percent of those in vocational programs expected to attain a graduate degree, compared 

to only 3 percent twenty years earlier. 

50 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 4.1

Percent of Seniors Expecting to Complete Various Levels of Education

High School or Less Some College Finish College Graduate School

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

TOTAL 18.9 19.5 5.3 30.9 34.5 25.3 37.6 25.5 36.1 12.6 20.5 33.3 

SEX

Male 15.5 21.0 6.8 29.0 31.7 26.0 39.2 26.0 36.2 16.3 21.2 31.1 

Female 22.2 18.2 3.9 32.7 37.0 24.6 36.0 25.1 36.1 9.1 19.8 35.4 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 15.0 17.0 4.7 34.0 35.4 23.5 37.5 24.3 34.0 13.5 23.2 37.9 

White 18.8 20.1 5.4 30.4 34.3 25.1 38.2 26.0 37.2 12.6 19.6 32.3 

Asian 8.4 3.3 2.9 23.1 18.6 19.0 52.1 34.9 35.7 16.5 43.2 42.5 

Hispanic 16.3 25.0 6.3 41.2 39.1 31.4 33.3 19.2 31.3 9.2 16.8 31.0 

REGION

Northeast 20.6 19.8 3.9 27.6 29.7 21.5 37.7 26.0 37.1 14.1 24.5 37.5 

Midwest 21.0 20.7 5.8 31.9 36.3 27.2 36.0 26.0 37.8 11.0 17.0 29.2 

South 18.0 22.1 5.9 29.6 34.4 25.6 39.1 24.6 34.6 13.2 19.0 33.8 

West 13.6 14.5 5.0 36.2 39.0 25.9 37.9 24.7 35.3 12.4 21.8 33.8 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low 33.6 34.4 10.8 36.0 39.5 40.0 24.5 16.2 27.9 6.0 10.0 21.2 

Middle 19.8 18.5 4.9 35.6 39.6 26.9 35.1 25.3 40.1 9.5 16.6 28.2 

High 5.8 5.0 1.3 17.8 19.3 9.3 52.6 36.6 36.1 23.8 39.2 53.3 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 28.3 27.0 8.4 40.4 40.8 33.7 26.4 20.8 34.7 4.9 11.4 23.3 

Academic 5.5 4.3 0.9 19.4 18.4 10.5 54.2 39.2 41.7 20.9 38.2 47.0 

Vocational 39.9 32.8 10.7 46.6 50.5 53.3 10.9 10.8 21.4 2.6 5.9 14.6 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE - MATH AND READING

Low 37.8 38.0 13.4 42.9 43.4 47.8 15.7 11.8 20.7 3.6 6.8 18.0 

Middle 19.9 23.2 5.1 35.1 44.2 29.6 35.9 20.3 38.9 9.0 12.3 26.4 

High 5.4 12.8 0.9 15.0 35.6 6.1 54.8 30.7 38.7 24.7 20.8 54.3 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

51 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Occupational Expectations

Corresponding to the high educational expectations of the Class of 1992 are class members’ 

expectations for the kinds of occupations they will have. There has been a noticeable shift away from 

occupations requiring less education toward those requiring college or graduate education. 

• Major increases occurred in the proportion of seniors who expected occupations as 

managers (from 3 percent in 1972 to 6 percent in 1992) or professionals (from 45 to 59 

percent), as shown in Table 4.2. 

At the same time, the proportion of seniors who planned to hold some blue-collar occupations 

declined during this 20 year period. Relatively fewer seniors in 1992 than in 1972 expected to have 

occupations that can be classified as clerical, craftsmen, farmers, homemakers, laborers, operatives, sales, 

or service. 

• Major declines occurred in the proportion of seniors who expected clerical occupations, 

decreasing from 14 percent to 4 percent, and crafts occupations, decreasing from 8 percent 

to 3 percent. 

• Decreases also occurred in farm occupations (from 2 percent to 1 percent), homemaking 

(from 3 percent to 1 percent), unskilled labor (from 2 percent to 1 percent), operatives 

(from 2 to 1 percent), sales (from 3 to 2 percent), and service occupations (from 4 to 3 

percent). 

The proportion of seniors expecting other occupations that can require a range of educational 

experience increased. 

• Increases occurred in the proportion of seniors who expected jobs in the military (2 

percent to 3 percent), as proprietors (from 2 percent to 7 percent), and as protective 

service workers (from 2 to 4 percent). 

Complete crosstabulations examining occupational aspirations by sex and race/ethnicity can be 

found in Table 4.3. 

52 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 4.2

Percent of Seniors Who Expect to be in Various Occupations

1972 1980 1992

Clerical 14.2 9.8 3.5 

Craftsman 7.6 8.1 2.8 

Farmer 1.6 2.0 1.0 

Homemaker 3.1 2.9 1.2 

Laborer 2.5 1.9 0.8 

Manager 3.1 7.2 6.0 

Military 2.4 2.0 3.2 

Operative 2.3 2.7 1.2 

Professional 45.4 44.0 59.0 

Proprietor 1.8 4.0 6.7 

Protective Services 2.2 1.8 4.2 

Sales 3.0 2.1 1.9 

Service 4.2 3.5 2.6 

Technical 6.6 8.2 6.0 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

53 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 4.3

Percent of Seniors Who Expect to be in Various Occupations by Sex and Race

1972 1980 1992

Clerical (1) 14.2 9.8 3.5 

Sex: Male 1.9 1.3 1.2 

Female 25.5 17.7 5.8 

Race: Black 26.5 12.5 3.6 

White 13.1 9.3 3.2 

Asian 10.2 6.9 2.8 

Hispanic 23.4 12.5 5.2 

Craftsman (2) 7.5 8.1 2.8 

Sex: Male 15.1 15.7 5.3 

Female 0.5 1.1 0.3 

Race: Black 3.6 6.0 2.0 

White 7.7 8.6 3.0 

Asian 6.0 3.9 2.0 

Hispanic 7.6 9.0 2.5 

Farmer (3) 1.6 2.0 1.0 

Sex: Male 2.7 3.4 1.6 

Female 0.6 0.8 0.4 

Race: Black 0.4 0.5 0.6 

White 1.6 2.3 1.1 

Asian Low N Low N Low N 

Hispanic 0.9 2.2 0.8 

Homemaker (4) 3.1 2.9 1.2 

Sex: Male 0.0 0.1 0.1 

Female 5.9 5.5 2.2 

Race: Black 2.1 1.2 0.4 

White 3.2 3.3 1.4 

Asian Low N 1.3 0.8 

Hispanic 2.3 2.0 0.8 

54 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 4.3

Percent of Seniors Who Expect to be in Various Occupations by Sex and Race

(Continued)

1972 1980 1992

Laborer (5) 2.5 1.9 0.8 

Sex: Male 4.9 3.7 1.4 

Female 0.3 0.2 0.1 

Race: Black 2.1 1.1 0.3 

White 2.5 2.1 0.8 

Asian Low N Low N 1.3 

Hispanic 2.3 1.9 0.6 

Manager (6) 3.1 7.2 6.0 

Sex: Male 5.1 7.9 6.6 

Female 1.3 6.4 5.4 

Race: Black 3.3 8.3 8.1 

White 3.1 7.0 5.4 

Asian 2.0 11.5 7.2 

Hispanic 3.0 5.2 5.8 

Military (7) 2.4 2.0 3.2 

Sex: Male 4.1 3.2 5.6 

Female 0.8 1.0 0.8 

Race: Black 3.7 4.4 6.1 

White 2.3 1.7 2.9 

Asian Low N 1.9 1.5 

Hispanic 1.4 2.9 2.6 

Operative (8) 2.3 2.7 1.2 

Sex: Male 3.9 4.5 2.1 

Female 0.8 1.0 0.2 

Race: Black 2.5 2.8 1.7 

White 2.3 2.6 1.2 

Asian 3.2 1.5 0.6 

Hispanic 1.8 4.3 0.5 

55 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 4.3

Percent of Seniors Who Expect to be in Various Occupations by Sex and Race

(Continued)

1972 1980 1992

Professional (9) 45.4 44.0 59.0 

Sex: Male 41.8 38.8 49.3 

Female 48.8 48.7 68.7 

Race: Black 40.0 42.6 55.9 

White 46.1 43.9 60.2 

Asian 57.0 54.2 63.2 

Hispanic 38.2 38.9 54.0 

Proprietor (10) 1.8 4.0 6.7 

Sex: Male 3.2 5.6 8.7 

Female 0.5 2.5 4.8 

Race: Black 1.2 3.1 7.4 

White 1.9 4.2 6.3 

Asian Low N 2.0 7.6 

Hispanic 1.6 3.6 8.6 

Protective Services (11) 2.2 1.8 4.1 

Sex: Male 4.2 2.8 6.9 

Female 0.4 0.8 1.4 

Race: Black 1.1 1.1 2.4 

White 2.3 1.8 4.3 

Asian Low N 1.3 4.0 

Hispanic 3.2 2.6 5.6 

Sales (12) 3.0 2.1 1.9 

Sex: Male 2.7 2.0 2.2 

Female 3.4 2.2 1.5 

Race: Black 1.9 2.5 2.2 

White 3.1 2.1 1.9 

Asian Low N Low N 1.7 

Hispanic 2.0 2.1 1.9 

56 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 4.3

Percent of Seniors Who Expect to be in Various Occupations by Sex and Race

(Continued)

1972 1980 1992

Service (13) 4.2 3.5 2.6 

Sex: Male 1.6 0.7 0.6 

Female 6.7 6.1 4.6 

Race: Black 2.8 3.8 3.3 

White 4.3 3.5 2.6 

Asian Low N 3.1 0.7 

Hispanic 4.6 3.8 2.7 

Technical (14) 6.6 8.2 6.0 

Sex: Male 8.8 10.5 8.4 

Female 4.6 6.0 3.7 

Race: Black 8.7 10.2 6.0 

White 6.5 7.9 5.7 

Asian 11.0 11.6 6.5 

Hispanic 7.8 9.0 8.4 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

57 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Chapter 5. Conclusion

Terms like "equity" and "excellence" often sound like cliches in education rather than 

measurable goals; while they are discussed often, progress towards either goal is sometimes difficult to 

discern. Educational policies in the 1960s and 1970s advocated increased educational opportunities for 

women and minorities. In the 1980s, reformers shifted attention towards the pursuit of excellence, calling 

for higher standards and curricular reform. Because these goals are so lofty, progress toward them often 

seems slow, and the efforts toward reaching them difficult to measure in the short term. The three datasets 

explored here offer the opportunity to look at these issues anew, and examine the course of change over 

a twenty-year period. From these data, we can see that progress has been made on both fronts. 

It is clear that in terms of their academic aspirations, seniors in 1992 were far ahead of their 

peers in earlier cohorts. A larger percentage of seniors than ever before intend to continue their education 

in college and graduate school. Furthermore, these seniors are preparing for their future by taking more 

rigorous sequences of high school coursework, including mathematics and science courses. 

Inequities between the sexes were evident in almost all areas of high school life in 1972, 

including academic achievement and postsecondary goals. In 1972, females lagged behind males in 

enrollment in college preparatory programs, plans for college, and tested achievement in mathematics, to 

name just a few. In 1992, these differences disappeared and in some cases, women seniors appeared to 

hold higher aspirations than men particularly with regard to postsecondary and graduate educational 

aspirations. The extent to which this move towards equality in the school will translate into equal 

opportunity and equal pay in the work place can be traced in upcoming rounds of NELS:88. 

Some disproportionalities in course completion among racial and ethnic subgroups have been 

reduced during the past twenty years. In particular, the enrollment of blacks and Hispanic in college 

preparatory programs has increased significantly since 1972, and the percentage of black, Hispanic, and 

Asian seniors aspiring to graduate degrees has increased dramatically. Furthermore, gaps between white 

seniors and seniors of other racial/ethnic groups in 1972 have decreased significantly. However, despite 

these improvements, some inequalities persist. In particular, a significantly smaller proportion of 

Hispanics complete the basic coursework sequence in English, Social Studies, Math, and Science 

recommended by the Commission on Excellence in Education. 

Also of concern is the fact that, even though achievement differences among racial and ethnics 

as a whole have been declining, differences between socio-economic subgroups have widened during the 

last 20 years. A significantly smaller proportion of seniors from low SES can be found in the upper 15% 

of the achievement in reading or mathematics. These findings, along with the others reported above, point 

to goals yet to be met. However, the significant advances which have been made in the past 20 years 

provide a considerable source of hope for the attainability of these objectives in the future of education 

in America. 

58 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Appendix A:

Supplementary Tables

59 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table A2.2a

Percentage of High School Graduates Taking

Selected Mathematics and Science Courses by Sex: 1982 and 1992

Courses (credits) 1982 1992

Total Male Female Total Male Female

Mathematics

Any mathematics (1.00) 99.0 99.4 98.7 99.6 99.3 99.9 

Remedial/below grade math (1.00) 32.5 35.9 29.5 17.4 19.5 15.4 

Algebra I (1.00) 68.4 66.4 70.4 79.4 80.0 78.9 

Algebra II (0.50) 36.9 37.5 36.3 56.1 54.0 58.1 

Geometry (1.00) 48.4 48.3 48.5 70.4 69.0 71.7 

Trigonometry (0.50) 12.2 13.3 11.2 21.1 21.4 20.8 

Analysis/pre-calculus (0.50) 5.8 6.1 5.5 17.2 16.8 17.6 

Calculus (1.00) 4.3 4.7 4.0 10.1 10.3 9.8 

AP calculus (1.00) 1.4 1.4 1.4 5.5 5.7 5.4 

Algebra II and geometry (1.50) 29.1 30.1 28.2 50.1 48.6 51.6 

Algebra II, geometry, and 

trigonometry (2.00) 7.4 8.5 6.3 14.5 14.7 14.4 

Algebra II, geometry, trigonometry, 

and calculus (3.00) 0.8 1.1 0.5 2.7 2.6 2.8 

Science

Any science (1.00) 97.6 97.5 97.7 99.6 99.5 99.7 

Biology (1.00) 78.7 76.5 80.6 93.0 91.9 94.2 

AP/honors biology (1.00) 6.7 6.2 7.2 5.7 5.8 5.7 

Chemistry (1.00) 31.6 32.4 30.9 55.5 54.2 56.8 

AP/honors chemistry (1.00) 2.6 3.1 2.1 4.0 4.3 3.7 

Physics (1.00) 13.5 17.9 9.4 24.7 28.2 21.4 

AP/honors physics (1.00) 0.9 1.2 0.5 2.9 4.0 1.9 

Engineering (1.00) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 

Astronomy (0.50) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 

Geology (0.50) 11.4 12.7 10.2 18.4 18.8 18.0 

Biology and chemistry (2.00) 28.6 28.4 28.9 53.9 52.2 55.6 

Biology, chemistry, and physics (3.00) 9.8 12.5 7.4 21.6 24.4 18.9 

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School and Beyond Transcript Study, 1987 and 1990 

NAEP High School Transcript Studies, National Education Longitudinal Study Transcripts, 1992. 

60 
Table A2.2b

Percentage of High School Graduates Taking Selected

Mathematics and Science Courses by Race/Ethnicity: 1982 and 1992

1982 19

Courses (credits) Native 

White Black Hispanic Asian Amer. White Black Hisp

Mathematics

Any mathematics (1.00) 99.1 99.6 98.6 100.0 96.6 99.7 99.1 99

Remedial/below grade math (1.00) 27.0 54.4 48.5 18.8 52.6 14.6 30.9 24

Algebra I (1.00) 71.1 61.1 59.9 67.4 54.1 79.6 78.0 84

Algebra II (0.50) 40.5 26.2 22.5 55.0 20.0 59.2 40.9 46

Geometry (1.00) 53.9 30.3 29.0 64.3 26.3 72.6 60.4 62

Trigonometry (0.50) 13.8 6.3 6.8 25.7 7.7 22.5 13.0 15

Analysis/pre-calculus (0.50) 6.7 2.1 3.0 15.1 0.7 17.9 12.6 10

Calculus (1.00) 5.0 1.4 1.6 13.1 1.2 10.7 6.9 4

AP calculus (1.00) 1.7 0.3 0.3 5.9 0.0 5.8 2.5 2

Algebra II and geometry (1.50) 33.0 17.0 14.4 40.3 13.6 53.1 35.0 41

Algebra II, geometry, and trigonometry (2.00) 8.5 2.9 4.2 12.9 3.1 15.9 6.8 10

Algebra II, geometry, trigonometry, and 

calculus (3.00) 0.9 0.2 0.5 2.0 0.0 3.0 0.9 1

Science

Any science (1.00) 97.7 98.6 95.9 97.1 98.4 99.5 100.0 99

Biology (1.00) 80.1 75.3 73.2 83.5 65.5 93.5 92.2 91

AP/honors biology (1.00) 7.5 4.5 3.5 13.1 5.1 6.5 3.2 2

Chemistry (1.00) 34.7 22.5 16.7 51.9 34.1 58.0 45.9 42

AP/honors chemistry (1.00) 2.9 1.6 1.3 5.8 0.9 4.2 2.3 2Physics (1.00) 15.3 6.8 5.5 35.8 6.9 25.9 17.6 15AP/honors physics (1.00) 0.9 0.8 0.4 3.5 0.0 2.9 1.4 2

Engineering (1.00) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0

Astronomy (0.50) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.1 0

Geology (0.50) 12.0 8.7 9.6 7.9 9.1 19.3 17.6 11

Biology and chemistry (2.00) 31.6 20.2 15.2 47.2 19.1 56.5 44.2 40

Biology, chemistry, and physics (3.00) 11.2 4.7 3.7 28.6 4.7 22.6 15.5 12

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School and Beyond Transcript Study, 1987 and 1990 NAEP High School Trans

Longitudinal Study Transcripts, 1992. 
Table A2.2c

Percentage of High School Graduates Taking Selected

Mathematics and Science Courses by Parents’ Highest

Level of Education: 1982 and 1992

1982 

Didn’t Didn’t

finish High finish Hig

high school Some College high scho

Courses (credits) school graduate college graduate school gradu

Mathematics

Any mathematics (1.00) 98.6 100.0 99.3 99.5 99.8 99.6 

Remedial/below grade math (1.00) 38.6 34.3 26.5 17.2 19.9 17.2 

Algebra I (1.00) 65.8 66.6 71.9 74.9 76.9 80.3 

Algebra II (0.50) 28.1 33.4 44.1 53.1 52.1 55.2 

Geometry (1.00) 38.9 47.2 56.7 69.1 68.2 69.3 

Trigonometry (0.50) 7.8 13.0 16.0 20.3 20.1 20.6 

Analysis/pre-calculus (0.50) 3.2 5.4 7.4 12.5 19.1 15.4 

Calculus (1.00) 2.1 1.8 5.7 8.0 9.9 9.4 

AP calculus (1.00) 0.8 0.2 1.9 2.9 7.1 4.9 

Algebra II and geometry (1.50) 21.0 26.2 35.5 45.1 47.0 49.0 

Algebra II, geometry, and trigonometry (2.0) 4.0 8.7 10.0 12.3 13.7 14.0 

Algebra II, geometry, trigonometry, and 

calculus (3.00) 0.3 0.0 1.3 0.7 2.5 3.0 

Science

Any science (1.00) 96.3 98.7 98.5 99.3 99.1 99.7 

Biology (1.00) 76.1 73.6 82.0 87.0 91.7 93.6 

AP/honors biology (1.00) 5.4 7.6 7.7 9.3 5.3 6.4 

Chemistry (1.00) 22.0 25.7 38.2 52.1 53.1 54.3 AP/honors chemistry (1.00) 1.8 1.5 2.7 5.6 3.2 3.7 

Physics (1.00) 8.2 13.1 16.9 23.5 23.4 23.9 

AP/honors physics (1.00) 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.7 2.6 

Engineering (1.00) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 

Astronomy (0.50) 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.6 1.0 

Geology (0.50) 12.6 9.7 10.4 10.9 16.0 20.4 Biology and chemistry (2.00) 20.1 24.1 34.4 48.0 50.9 53.Biology, chemistry, and physics (3.00) 5.5 8.0 13.0 17.9 20.5 21.0 

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School and Beyond Transcript Study, 1987 and 1990 NAEP High School Trans

Longitudinal Study Transcripts, 1992. 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table A3.4a

Percentage of College-Bound Seniors

Expecting to Major in Each Field by Sex

Male Female

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

Agriculture 5.8 5.8 3.0 0.6 1.6 0.7 

Architecture 3.6 4.5 3.5 0.2 0.7 1.1 

Art 2.6 4.5 4.1 5.6 6.5 3.6 

Biological Sciences 12.6 3.5 3.7 7.0 2.4 3.7 

Business 17.1 22.6 21.8 9.8 26.4 17.8 

Communications 2.3 3.6 4.1 1.6 3.8 4.4 

Computer Information 

and Sciences 2.5 6.1 4.0 1.0 4.1 2.1 

Education 6.9 3.4 5.9 17.8 8.6 13.9 

Engineering 10.5 20.0 17.7 0.2 2.2 2.8 

English 1.7 1.8 1.9 4.8 2.5 2.6 

Ethnic Studies 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.6 

Foreign Languages 0.2 0.5 0.3 2.6 1.5 0.9 

Health Occupations 4.0 2.5 4.4 20.6 15.4 15.0 

Home Economics 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.7 1.5 

Interdisciplinary 

Studies 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.2 0.1 0.3 

Mathematics 2.4 1.1 0.9 1.8 0.8 0.9 

Music 3.0 3.0 2.5 3.6 1.8 1.4 

Philosophy 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 

Physical Sciences 4.1 2.9 2.3 1.4 1.0 1.4 

Pre-Professional1 0.0 8.0 10.9 0.0 6.5 11.2 

Social Sciences 18.5 5.0 7.9 16.6 10.0 14.0 

1

Category not included in 1972 questionnaire. 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

63 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table A3.4b

Percentage of College-Bound Seniors

Expecting to Major in Each Field by Race/Ethnicity

Black White

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

Agriculture 0.7 0.7 0.3 3.4 3.9 2.1 

Architecture 1.1 2.5 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.1 

Art 4.6 6.6 2.5 4.0 5.4 4.0 

Biological Sciences 8.1 1.8 1.9 10.0 3.0 4.2 

Business 17.5 26.1 22.3 13.1 24.7 18.6 

Communications 1.5 4.6 5.4 2.0 3.7 4.3 

Computer Information 

and Sciences 2.6 7.9 7.5 1.6 4.6 2.0 

Education 10.8 5.0 6.2 12.6 6.6 11.8 

Engineering 3.6 8.8 12.6 5.5 10.0 8.7 

English 2.0 1.3 1.2 3.2 2.4 2.6 

Ethnic Studies 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 

Foreign Languages 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.7 

Health Occupations 14.3 11.0 15.0 12.2 9.6 9.6 

Home Economics 0.0 2.3 0.5 0.2 2.1 0.9 

Interdisciplinary 

Studies 2.4 0.1 0.2 1.6 0.2 0.2 

Mathematics 1.9 1.0 1.0 2.1 1.0 1.0 

Music 4.1 2.8 1.4 3.3 2.3 2.2 

Philosophy 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.5 0.7 0.5 

Physical Sciences 2.4 0.8 1.2 2.8 1.9 2.0 

Pre-Professional1 0.0 7.5 9.7 0.0 7.1 10.8 

Social Sciences 19.9 8.0 9.1 17.5 7.6 11.5 

64 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table A3.4b

Percentage of College-Bound Seniors

Expecting to Major in Each Field by Race/Ethnicity (Continued)

Asian Hispanic

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

Agriculture 1.3 1.6 0.1 1.1 3.0 1.8 

Architecture 3.2 3.7 1.8 0.8 3.8 3.8 

Art 4.6 4.0 3.8 5.2 5.8 4.6 

Biological Sciences 15.0 4.3 4.7 6.6 2.4 1.7 

Business 11.8 24.2 22.2 18.9 24.9 23.0 

Communications 0.7 0.7 4.4 2.1 3.8 3.3 

Computer Information 

and Sciences 3.0 6.6 2.9 2.1 4.0 5.6 

Education 12.3 1.4 4.5 12.6 5.7 7.1 

Engineering 7.5 17.8 13.6 5.3 11.0 9.5 

English 2.8 1.4 1.3 3.9 1.2 1.6 

Ethnic Studies 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 

Foreign Languages 1.8 0.7 0.4 4.0 2.2 0.6 

Health Occupations 9.3 6.4 10.9 13.6 9.8 8.1 

Home Economics 0.0 1.1 0.2 0.9 2.4 1.1 

Interdisciplinary 

Studies 1.0 0.0 0.1 2.1 0.0 0.1 

Mathematics 5.4 2.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 

Music 1.8 3.3 1.3 2.4 1.3 0.9 

Philosophy 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 

Physical Sciences 4.2 2.3 2.2 0.6 1.7 1.2 

Pre-Professional1 0.0 11.6 16.2 0.0 6.9 12.2 

Social Sciences 13.7 6.5 8.6 15.1 9.1 13.5 

1

Category not included in 1972 questionnaire. 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

65 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table A3.4c

Percentages of College-Bound Seniors Expecting

to Major in Each Field by Socioeconomic Status

SESlow SESmid SEShigh

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

Agriculture 3.0 4.9 2.4 3.8 3.7 1.9 2.4 2.6 1.4 

Architecture 1.4 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 

Art 7.2 8.6 7.0 4.4 5.6 4.2 2.8 3.9 3.0 

Biological Sciences 3.0 1.9 2.3 7.8 2.0 3.1 14.1 4.1 5.4 

Business 19.4 27.3 20.8 15.0 28.4 23.4 9.8 18.7 15.9 

Communications 1.3 3.3 3.4 2.2 3.9 3.7 2.0 3.4 4.6 

Computer Information 

and Sciences 2.1 4.3 5.2 2.0 4.8 2.3 1.3 5.6 2.7 

Education 15.5 7.4 10.1 14.4 7.4 12.4 9.4 4.5 7.7 

Engineering 3.8 5.7 5.6 4.2 7.5 7.5 7.1 15.5 12.4 

English 3.1 1.3 0.7 2.8 2.0 1.4 3.7 2.8 3.8 

Ethnic Studies 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 

Foreign Languages 1.0 1.3 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.6 1.7 1.0 0.9 

Health Occupations 16.7 13.8 14.8 13.7 10.6 11.7 9.6 7.0 6.2 

Home Economics 0.3 3.6 2.2 0.3 2.5 1.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 

Interdisciplinary Studies 2.1 0.1 0.1 1.9 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.3 0.2 

Mathematics 0.3 1.2 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.9 3.5 1.4 1.1 

Music 3.6 2.8 2.2 3.2 2.4 2.0 3.5 2.0 1.7 

Philosophy 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 1.9 0.9 0.7 

Physical Sciences 1.2 0.5 0.1 1.9 0.9 1.2 4.2 3.6 3.1 

Pre-Professional1 0.0 2.7 10.2 0.0 5.7 8.8 0.0 11.0 15.2 

Social Sciences 13.3 6.4 9.9 16.7 7.7 11.0 19.4 8.6 10.6 

1

Category not included in 1972 questionnaire. 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

66 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table A3.4d

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of College-Bound

Seniors Expecting to Major in Each Field by Sex

Male Female

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

Agriculture 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 

(3745) (7110) (4436) (3811) (8937) (5334) 

Architecture 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 

Art 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 

Biological Sciences 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 

Business 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.7 

Communications 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 

Computer Information 

and Sciences 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 

Education 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 

Engineering 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 

English 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 

Ethnic Studies 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 

Foreign Languages 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 

Health Occupations 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.9 

Home Economics 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 

Interdisciplinary 

Studies 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 

Mathematics 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 

Music 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 

Philosophy 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 

Physical Sciences 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 

Pre-Professional1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 

Social Sciences 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.8 

1

Category not included in 1972 questionnaire. 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

67 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table A3.4e

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of College-Bound

Seniors Expecting to Major in Each Field by Race/Ethnicity

Black White

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

Agriculture 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 

(695) (2053) (812) (6260) (11603) (6961) 

Architecture 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 

Art 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 

Biological Sciences 1.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 

Business 1.6 1.2 2.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 

Communications 0.6 0.5 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 

Computer Information 

and Sciences 0.6 0.8 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 

Education 1.2 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 

Engineering 0.8 0.9 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 

English 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 

Ethnic Studies 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 

Foreign Languages 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 

Health Occupations 1.6 0.8 2.7 0.5 0.3 0.6 

Home Economics 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 

Interdisciplinary 

Studies 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 

Mathematics 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 

Music 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 

Philosophy 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 

Physical Sciences 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 

Pre-Professional1 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 

Social Sciences 1.7 0.8 2.2 0.6 0.3 0.6 

68 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table A3.4e

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of College-Bound

Seniors Expecting to Major in Each Field by Race/Ethnicity (Continued)

Asian Hispanic

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

Agriculture 1.3 0.8 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 

(130) (283) (867) (279) (1742) (1018) 

Architecture 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.1 

Art 2.5 1.4 0.9 2.2 0.8 0.8 

Biological Sciences 3.4 1.7 1.0 1.8 0.6 0.4 

Business 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.7 1.5 2.2 

Communications 0.7 0.5 1.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 

Computer Information 

and Sciences 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.2 

Education 3.6 0.6 1.0 2.3 0.8 1.3 

Engineering 2.3 3.2 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 

English 1.5 0.8 0.4 1.7 0.3 0.5 

Ethnic Studies 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 

Foreign Languages 1.1 0.7 0.2 1.5 0.5 0.2 

Health Occupations 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.5 1.0 1.0 

Home Economics 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.4 

Interdisciplinary Studies 1.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.1 

Mathematics 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 

Music 1.4 1.6 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.2 

Philosophy 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 

Physical Sciences 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 

Pre-Professional1 0.0 2.2 1.9 0.0 0.9 1.4 

Social Sciences 3.4 1.7 1.3 2.2 1.1 1.6 

1

Category not included in 1972 questionnaire. 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

69 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table A3.4f

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of College-Bound Seniors

Expecting to Major in Each Field by Socioeconomic Status

SESlow SESmid SEShigh

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

Agriculture 2.0 0.4 0.8 3.6 0.3 0.2 3.4 0.3 0.2 

(1258) (3806) (1596) (3445) (7427) (4410) (2840) (4690) (3764) 

Architecture 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 

Art 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 

Biological Sciences 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.6 

Business 1.2 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 

Communications 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 

Computer Information 

and Sciences 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 

Education 1.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 

Engineering 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 

English 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 

Ethnic Studies 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 

Foreign Languages 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 

Health Occupations 1.1 0.6 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 

Home Economics 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 

Interdisciplinary Studies 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 

Mathematics 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 

Music 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 

Philosophy 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 

Physical Sciences 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 

Pre-Professional1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.5 1.4 

Social Sciences 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 

1

Category not included in 1972 questionnaire. 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

70 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Appendix B:

Standard Errors for Percent

Estimates Reported in Text

71 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B1.3

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors by Sex, Race, and Region

1972 1980 1992

SEX (16678) (26993) (16114) 

Male 0.6 0.5 0.6 

(8281) (12907) (8034) 

Female 0.6 0.5 0.6 

(8397) (14086) (8080) 

RACE/ETHNICITY (16132) (27386) (16041) 

Black 0.4 0.7 0.8 

(2127) (3775) (1499) 

White 0.5 0.8 1.1 

(12847) (19852) (11308) 

Asian 0.1 0.2 0.3 

(193) (365) (1172) 

Hispanic 0.3 0.3 0.7 

(776) (3177) (1909) 

REGION (16683) (28240) (16088) 

Northeast 0.5 1.5 0.9 

(3618) (5689) (3148) 

Midwest 0.4 1.6 0.8 

(4568) (8102) (4328) 

South 0.4 1.6 0.8 

(5513) (9309) (5428) 

West 0.4 1.4 0.7 

(2984) (5140) (3274) 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

72 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B1.4

Standard Errors for Percentages of Black, White, Asian, and Hispanic

Seniors in Each Quartile of Social Class

1972 1982 1992

BLACKS 2112 3550 1499 

Low SES Quartile 1.4 1.5 2.5 

Middle Two SES Quartile 1.2 1.3 2.2 

High SES Quartile 0.6 .7 1.1 

WHITES 12822 19568 11308 

Low SES Quartile .4 .6 .7 

Middle Two SES Quartile .6 .6 .8 

High SES Quartile .6 .8 1.0 

ASIANS 193 359 1172 

Low SES Quartile 3.8 3.2 2.4 

Middle Two SES Quartile 4.0 3.3 2.6 

High SES Quartile 3.2 3.7 2.6 

HISPANICS 772 3077 1909 

Low SES Quartile 2.8 1.7 2.0 

Middle Two SES Quartile 2.5 1.4 1.7 

High SES Quartile 1.2 1.0 1.4 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

73 
Table B1.5a

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Who Believe that Various Values are "Very Im

A Good Marriage

Giving Children

A Better Opportunity

Living Close

to Parents 

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 

TOTAL 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 

(16489) (26699) (15996) (16425) (26544) (15973) (16487) (26557) (15975) (1651

SEXMale 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 

(8167) (12730) (7962) (8141) (12648) (7950) (8170) (12646) (7952) (8191

Female 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 

(8322) (13969) (8034) (8284) (13896) (8023) (8317) (13911) (8023) (8324

RACE/ETHNICITYBlack 1.1 0.9 1.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.2 

(2065) (3584) (1488) (2059) (3540) (1486) (2059) (3546) (1482) (2059

White 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 

(12750) (19571) (11232) (12696) (19474) (11220) (12756) (19482) (11224) (1278

Asian 4.2 2.4 1.9 3.8 2.9 1.8 2.5 2.6 2.2 3.2 

(191) (357) (1164) (189) (354) (1162) (191) (357) (1163) (190

Hispanic 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.4 2.0 

(762) (3075) (1887) (758) (3054) (1882) (760) (3052) (1883) (759

REGIONNortheast 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.7 

(3579) (5575) (3120) (3566) (5534) (3118) (3581) (5552) (3116) (3585

Midwest 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.8 

(4528) (7898) (4212) (4506) (7852) (4208) (4524) (7852) (4210) (4534

South 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 

(5435) (9008) (5394) (5424) (8964) (5384) (5430) (8943) (5381) (5446

West 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 

(2952) (5005) (3246) (2934) (4961) (3239) (2957) (4975) (3244) (2955
Table B1.5a

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Who Believe that Various Values are "Very Importan

A Good Marriage

Giving Children

A Better Opportunity

Living Close

to Parents 

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUSLow 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 

(4757) (8177) (3849) (4746) (8116) (3837) (4740) (8108) (3837) (4752

Middle 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 

(7852) (12569) (7447) (7816) (12516) (7443) (7861) (12576) (7440) (7865

High 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 

(3829) (6087) (4700) (3810) (6048) (4693) (3832) (6064) (4698) (3845

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAMGeneral 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 

(5595) (9998) (5780) (5576) (9942) (5773) (5592) (9943) (5775) (5607

Academic 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 

(6755) (10384) (7640) (6726) (10311) (7632) (6761) (10343) (7631) (6774

Vocational 0.7 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.5 1.3 0.8 

(4143) (6699) (1735) (4127) (6659) (1731) (4138) (6642) (1728) (4138

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE

Low 0.6 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.6 1.3 0.8 

(4556) (6729) (2354) (4540) (6686) (2350) (4539) (6647) (2346) (4547

Middle 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 

(7676) (11711) (6514) (7644) (11645) (6506) (7677) (11658) (6509) (7695

High 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 

(3428) (5749) (4019) (3414) (5719) (4016) (3442) (5743) (4018) (3444

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study 
Table B1.5b

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Who Believe that Various Values are "Very Im

Steady Work Success in Work Money

W

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 197

TOTAL 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 

(16478) (26560) (15986) (16559) (26743) (15997) (16493) (26660) (15990) (1646

SEXMale 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.5 

(8168) (12667) (7958) (8211) (12759) (7966) (8183) (12715) (7961) (815

Female 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.6 

(8310) (13893) (8028) (8348) (13984) (8031) (8310) (13945) (8029) (830

RACE/ETHNICITYBlack 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 2.5 1.4 

(2065) (3552) (1488) (2088) (3588) (1490) (2063) (3571) (1489) (206

White 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 

(12747) (19476) (11231) (12789) (19607) (11234) (12760) (19544) (11229) (1273

Asian 3.4 2.5 1.5 3.0 2.1 1.1 2.9 3.0 2.2 4.1 

(190) (357) (1162) (191) (356) (1163) (191) (356) (1164) (190

Hispanic 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.2 1.7 2.2 

(756) (3052) (1883) (767) (3075) (1885) (757) (3069) (1885) (755

REGIONNortheast 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.8 

(3583) (5547) (3118) (3592) (5587) (3121) (3579) (5572) (3121) (357

Midwest 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 

(4523) (7850) (4212) (4542) (7911) (4213) (4524) (7885) (4212) (451

South 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.7 

(5432) (8950) (5389) (5467) (9016) (5394) (5440) (8985) (5391) (543

West 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.9 

(2945) (4984) (3243) (2963) (5018) (3245) (2955) (4998) (3243) (294
Table B1.5b

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Who Believe that Various Values are "Very Importan

Steady Work Success in Work Money

W

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 197

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUSLow 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.8 

(4742) (8118) (3842) (4788) (8193) (3850) (4748) (8154) (3847) (473

Middle 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.6 

(7843) (12528) (7446) (7879) (12595) (7447) (7855) (12561) (7444) (783

High 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 

(3838) (6053) (4698) (3846) (6095) (4700) (3837) (6084) (4699) (383

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAMGeneral 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 

(5584) (9944) (5774) (5627) (10024) (5775) (5599) (9989) (5775) (558

Academic 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 

(6759) (10336) (7637) (6780) (10392) (7643) (6765) (10375) (7639) (675

Vocational 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.6 0.8 

(4140) (6653) (1733) (4156) (6712) (1736) (4133) (6675) (1733) (412

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE

Low 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.6 0.7 

(4540) (6669) (2350) (4583) (6745) (2356) (4548) (6701) (2354) (453

Middle 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 

(7673) (11662) (6511) (7701) (11723) (6513) (7677) (11698) (6510) (766

High 1.0 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.8 

(3439) (5734) (4019) (3443) (5756) (4020) (3440) (5749) (4019) (343

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study 
Table B2.1

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Reporting Enrollment in General, Academ

and Vocational High School Programs

General Academic Vocational

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 

TOTAL 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 

(16677) (26602) (15245) (16677) (26602) (15245) (16677) (26602) 

SEXMale 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.7 

(8281) (12724) (7563) (8281) (12724) (7563) (8281) (12724) 

Female 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 

(8396) (13878) (7682) (8396) (13878) (7682) (8396) (13878) 

RACE/ETHNICITYBlack 1.8 1.3 2.0 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.3 

(2127) (3695) (1364) (2127) (3695) (1364) (2127) (3695) 

White 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.6 

(12846) (19618) (10835) (12846) (19618) (10835) (12846) (19618) 

Asian 4.2 4.1 2.4 4.3 3.9 2.4 2.6 2.4 

(193) (362) (1104) (193) (362) (1104) (193) (362) 

Hispanic 2.3 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.4 

(776) (3107) (1737) (776) (3107) (1737) (776) (3107) 

REGIONNortheast 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.5 

(3618) (5587) (3022) (3618) (5587) (3022) (3618) (5587) 

Midwest 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.9 

(4568) (8003) (4015) (4568) (8003) (4015) (4568) (8003) 

South 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 

(5513) (9142) (5132) (5513) (9142) (5132) (5513) (9142) 

West 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.1 

(2983) (5052) (3052) (2983) (5052) (3052) (2983) (5052) 
Table B2.1

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Reporting Enrollment in General, Academ

and Vocational High School Programs (Continued)

General Academic Vocational

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUSLow 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 

(4827) (8237) (3540) (4827) (8237) (3540) (4827) (8237) 

Middle 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.6 

(7926) (12655) (7097) (7926) (12655) (7097) (7926) (12655) 

High 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.5 

(3863) (6129) (4608) (3863) (6129) (4608) (3863) (6129) 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILELow 1.0 0.9 1.7 0.8 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.9 

(4652) (6839) (2020) (4652) (6839) (2020) (4652) (6839) 

Middle 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.9 

(7729) (5930) (6222) (7729) (5930) (6222) (7729) (5930) 

High 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.8 

(3458) (5796) (3969) (3458) (5796) (3969) (3458) (5796) 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study Second Follow-up, 1992. 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B2.2

Standard Errors for Percentages of High School Graduates Earning the

Recommended Units in Core Courses: 1982 and 1992

1982 1992

Total 0.6 1.3 

Sex

Male 0.8 1.8 

Female 0.7 1.4 

Race/Ethnicity

White 0.7 1.5 

Black 1.3 3.5 

Hispanic 0.9 2.4 

Asian 2.5 3.6 

Urbanicity

Urban 1.5 2.2 

Suburban 0.9 2.1 

Rural 1.1 2.0 

Control of school

Public 0.6 1.2 

Private 4.3 4.5 

Parents’ highest education level

Did not finish high school 0.8 2.8 

High school graduate 1.8 2.0 

Some college 1.0 1.4 

College graduate 1.7 2.5 

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, The 1990 High School Transcript Study 

Tabulations, 1993 National Education Longitudinal Study Transcripts, 1992. 

80 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B2.2a

Standard Errors for Estimated Percentages in Table A2.2a

1982 1992

Courses (credits)

Total Male Female Total Male Female

Mathematics

Any mathematics (1.00) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 

Remedial/below grade math (1.00) 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.2 0.8 

Algebra I (1.00) 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 

Algebra II (0.50) 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 

Geometry (1.00) 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.2 

Trigonometry (0.50) 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 

Analysis/pre-calculus (0.50) 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.1 

Calculus (1.00) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.7 

AP calculus (1.00) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 

Algebra II and geometry (1.50) 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.4 

Algebra II, geometry, and 

trigonometry (2.00) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 

Algebra II, geometry, 

trigonometry, and 

calculus (3.00) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 

Science

Any science (1.00) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 

Biology (1.00) 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.6 

AP/honors biology (1.00) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.5 

Chemistry (1.00) 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.3 

AP/honors chemistry (1.00) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 

Physics (1.00) 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.0 

AP/honors physics (1.00) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 

Engineering (1.00) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 

Astronomy (0.50) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 

Geology (0.50) 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 

Biology and chemistry (2.0) 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.4 

Biology, chemistry, 

and physics (3.00) 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.0 

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School and Beyond Transcript Study, 1987 

and 1990 NAEP High School Transcript Studies, National Education Longitudinal Study Transcripts, 1992. 

81 
Table B2.2b

Standard Errors for Estimated Percentages

in Table A2.2b

1982 19

Courses (credits) Native 

White Black Hispanic Asian Amer. White Black Hisp

Mathematics

Any mathematics (1.00) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 2.1 0.1 0.5 0Remedial/below grade math (1.00) 1.1 2.2 1.9 3.2 10.2 0.9 3.1 2

Algebra I (1.00) 1.0 2.0 1.7 3.9 8.8 0.9 2.5 1

Algebra II (0.50) 1.1 2.1 1.5 4.6 5.2 1.3 3.1 2

Geometry (1.00) 1.1 1.8 1.6 4.1 6.2 1.1 3.2 2

Trigonometry (0.50) 0.8 0.9 0.9 3.1 2.4 1.1 1.9 2

Analysis/pre-calculus (0.50) 0.6 0.5 0.7 2.7 0.7 1.2 2.5 1

Calculus (1.00) 0.5 0.4 0.3 2.3 0.9 1.0 1.9 0

AP calculus (1.00) 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.5 0.0 0.4 0.6 0Algebra II and geometry (1.50) 1.1 1.4 1.2 3.8 4.0 1.4 2.9 2

Algebra II, geometry, and trigonometry (2.00) 0.6 0.5 0.8 2.3 1.5 1.0 1.0 1

Algebra II, geometry, trigonometry, 

and calculus (3.00) 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0

Science

Any science (1.00) 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0

Biology (1.00) 0.9 2.1 1.8 2.8 9.6 0.5 1.9 1

AP/honors biology (1.00) 0.7 0.9 0.7 2.7 2.2 0.9 0.9 0

Chemistry (1.00) 1.0 1.8 1.2 4.1 9.6 1.3 3.0 2

AP/honors chemistry (1.00) 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.9 0

Physics (1.00) 0.7 0.8 0.7 3.9 2.3 1.3 2.6 1

AP/honors physics (1.00) 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 1

Engineering (1.00) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0

Astronomy (0.50) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 0

Geology (0.50) 1.1 1.9 1.4 2.9 3.5 1.3 3.0 1

Biology and chemistry (2.0) 1.0 1.7 1.2 3.8 4.7 1.3 3.0 2

Biology, chemistry, and physics (3.00) 0.6 0.7 0.5 3.7 1.8 1.2 2.6 1

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School and Beyond Transcript Study, 1987 and 1990 NAEP High School Trans

Longitudinal Study Transcripts, 1992. 
Table B2.2c

Standard Error for Estimated Percentages in Table A2.2c

1982 

Didn’t Didn’t

finish High finish Hig

high school Some College high scho

Courses (credits) school graduate college graduate school gradu

Mathematics

Any mathematics (1.00) 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 

Remedial/below grade math (1.00) 1.6 3.7 1.4 1.7 2.3 1.2 

Algebra I (1.00) 1.5 3.6 1.3 1.9 2.5 1.3 

Algebra II (0.50) 1.4 3.2 1.5 2.2 2.8 1.9 

Geometry (1.00) 1.4 3.5 1.4 2.0 2.6 1.8 

Trigonometry (0.50) 0.8 2.0 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.5 

Analysis/pre-calculus (0.50) 0.5 1.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 1.2 

Calculus (1.00) 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.7 0.9 

AP calculus (1.00) 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.5 0.5 

Algebra II and geometry (1.50) 1.2 2.9 1.4 2.2 2.8 2.0 

Algebra II, geometry, and trigonometry (2.0) 0.5 1.8 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.3 

Algebra II, geometry, trigonometry, 

and calculus (3.00) 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 

Science

Any science (1.00) 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 

Biology (1.00) 1.4 3.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.8 

AP/honors biology (1.00) 0.8 1.6 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.9 

Chemistry (1.00) 1.2 2.8 1.3 2.1 2.8 1.9 

AP/honors chemistry (1.00) 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.6 

Physics (1.00) 0.7 2.3 1.0 1.6 2.3 1.3 

AP/honors physics (1.00) 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 

Engineering (1.00) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 

Astronomy (0.50) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.5 

Geology (0.50) 1.4 2.2 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.7 Biology and chemistry (2.00) 1.2 2.7 1.3 2.2 2.8 1.9 

Biology, chemistry, and physics (3.00) 0.6 1.6 0.8 1.5 2.2 1.3 

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School and Beyond Transcript Study, 1987 and 1990 NAEP High School Trans

Longitudinal Study Transcripts, 1992. 
Table B2.3

Data for the Computations Reported in Table 2.3

NLS 1972 HS&B 1980 

ReadingTest Mean sd WTD N N pooled s effect Mean sd WTD N N pooled s effect Mean sd W

Total 9.89 5.0 2863482 15713 8.84 5.1 2658958 24864 33.18 10.1 1

Male Female 

9.83 9.95 

5.0 5.0 

1427414 1435051 

7811 7897 5.00 0.02 

8.95 8.96 

5.3 5.0 

1215335 1352068 

11352 12614 5.14 0.00 

32.01 34.40 

10.4 

9.7 

1

Low SES Mid SES High SES 

7.65 9.92 

12.13 

5.0 4.8 4.5 

695440 

1461882 

695829 

4503 7489 3664 

4.87 4.76 

0.47 0.94 

6.73 9.05 

11.20 

4.7 4.9 4.8 

705500 

1264873 

626850 

7350 

11438 

5448 

4.83 4.75 

0.48 0.94 

28.25 33.26 38.13 

9.5 9.8 8.9 

White Black Asian Am. Indian Mexican Puerto Rican Other Hisp. 

10.56 

5.94 

10.14 

6.51 6.28 6.11 6.68 

4.8 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.8 

2384253 

235572 

25667 29787 68498 

8376 

17498 

12180 

1935 

182 181 517 

84 

112 

4.77 4.80 4.80 4.79 4.80 4.80 

0.97 0.09 0.84 0.89 0.93 0.81 

9.60 5.56 9.11 7.11 5.60 5.68 5.73 

5.0 4.5 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.3 4.7 

2105217 

283823 

33695 20103 83914 14047 57027 

17818 

3157 

320 199 

1620 

261 853 

4.94 5.00 5.00 4.98 5.00 4.99 

0.82 0.10 0.50 0.80 0.78 0.78 

34.66 27.47 33.77 28.34 28.68 30.23 30.43 

9.8 9.4 

10.7 

9.8 9.1 9.0 

10.7 

1

Public Private Catholic 

9.78 

11.41 11.61 

5.0 5.1 4.4 

2543636 

16235 

224161 

14114 

66 

989 

5.00 4.95 

0.33 0.37 

8.66 

11.31 10.06 

5.1 5.2 4.7 

2391769 

84636 

182553 

21618 

734 

2512 

5.10 5.07 

0.52 0.28 

32.75 37.32 37.01 

10.1 10.2 

8.5 

1

Northeast N. Central South West 

10.55 

9.97 9.14 9.88 

4.9 4.9 5.2 5.1 

777802 833505 773939 478236 

3493 4100 5338 2782 

4.90 5.05 4.98 

0.12 0.28 0.13 

9.57 9.21 7.83 9.01 

5.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 

605302 783970 806228 463458 

4974 7292 8199 4399 

5.00 5.12 5.04 

0.07 0.34 0.11 

34.65 33.79 31.79 33.38 

9.8 9.9 

10.2 10.2 

General Academic Vocational 

8.48 

11.99 

7.51 

4.8 4.4 4.7 

901464 

1323908 

637808 

5310 6486 3916 

4.57 4.50 

0.77 1.00 

7.71 

11.33 

6.81 

4.8 4.7 4.7 

974753 

1006476 

641041 

9041 9439 6035 

4.75 4.70 

0.76 0.96 

30.94 37.38 27.80 

9.6 8.9 9.1 

Urban Suburban Rural 

9.46 

10.49 

9.27 

5.0 4.9 5.1 

703504 

1481264 

612151 

4099 7649 3541 

4.93 5.05 

0.21 0.04 

8.21 9.29 8.52 

5.2 5.1 5.2 

511844 

1298837 

848277 

5511 

11863 

7490 

5.13 5.20 

0.21 0.06 

33.52 33.76 32.19 

10.3 10.1 

9.9 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education L

Second Follow-up, 1992.
Table B2.4

Data for the Computations Reported in Table 2.4

NLS 1972 HS&B 1980 

MathematicsTest Mean sd WTD N N Pooled effect Mean sd WTD N N Pooled effect Mean sd W

Total 12.94 7.3 2862252 15705 11.90 7.2 2650446 24758 48.84 14.2 1

Male Female 

13.79 12.09 

7.3 7.2 

1426314 1434921 

7807 7893 7.25 0.23 

12.83 11.39 

7.4 6.9 

1213609 1346152 

11321 12549 7.14 0.20 

49.39 48.28 

14.5 13.8 

1

Low SES Mid SES High SES 

9.39 

12.90 16.62 

7.1 7.0 6.3 

694282 

1461863 

696135 

4493 7490 3666 

7.03 6.71 

0.50 1.08 

8.44 

12.16 15.83 

6.6 6.8 6.4 

701703 

1263636 

624635 

7303 

11410 

5428 

6.73 6.51 

0.55 1.14 

40.68 48.76 57.37 

12.6 13.3 12.2 

White Black Asian Am. Indian Mexican Puerto Rican Other Hisp. 

13.95 

6.50 

15.96 

7.74 8.02 6.33 8.04 

6.9 6.2 6.7 6.4 6.8 6.2 5.9 

2384219 

235045 

25667 29787 68165 

8376 

17461 

12179 

1931 

182 181 514 

84 

112 

6.84 6.90 6.89 6.90 6.90 6.89 

1.09 0.29 0.90 0.86 1.10 0.86 

12.98 

6.69 

15.50 

8.28 7.54 7.19 8.08 

6.9 6.3 7.2 6.5 6.8 7.5 6.8 

2099886 

284281 

33116 20013 82650 13898 55699 

17756 

3153 

317 198 

1610 

256 839 

6.83 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.90 

0.92 0.36 0.68 0.79 0.84 0.71 

51.01 39.24 53.27 40.89 41.52 43.13 45.81 

13.6 12.5 14.5 13.0 12.4 13.7 14.3 

1

Public Private Catholic 

12.79 15.50 15.36 

7.3 6.0 6.4 

2542234 

16235 

224332 

14105 

66 

990 

7.29 7.23 

0.37 0.36 

11.59 15.48 14.35 

7.2 6.9 6.2 

2383107 

84822 

182516 

21503 

735 

2520 

7.19 7.13 

0.54 0.39 

48.19 55.77 54.30 

14.2 13.6 12.1 

1

Northeast N. Central South West 

13.90 13.29 11.95 12.37 

7.1 7.1 7.4 7.4 

778067 833316 773173 477695 

3494 4099 5332 2780 

7.10 7.25 7.22 

0.09 0.27 0.21 

13.36 12.59 10.07 12.04 

7.2 7.0 7.1 7.1 

604620 783062 805015 457749 

4955 7277 8171 4355 

7.09 7.14 7.16 

0.11 0.46 0.18 

51.73 50.14 46.53 48.27 

13.9 13.9 14.0 14.5 

General Academic Vocational 

10.41 16.66 

8.78 

6.8 6.2 6.2 

900844 

1323927 

637177 

5303 6487 3914 

6.45 6.20 

0.97 1.27 

9.89 

16.17 

8.48 

6.5 6.2 6.2 

969228 

1007295 

637325 

8988 9433 5990 

6.35 6.20 

0.99 1.24 

44.79 55.99 39.90 

13.2 11.9 11.8 

Urban Suburban Rural 

12.16 13.81 12.15 

7.3 7.2 7.3 

703168 

1481125 

611858 

4097 7648 3538 

7.23 7.30 

0.23 0.00 

10.98 12.70 11.24 

7.4 7.1 7.1 

509127 

1295212 

846107 

5466 

11820 

7472 

7.19 7.21 

0.24 0.04 

48.72 50.01 47.49 

14.6 14.1 13.9 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education L

Second Follow-up, 1992.
____________________________________________________________________________________

Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B2.5

Standard Errors for Percentages of 1972 and 1992

High School Seniors From Sex and Race/Ethnicity

Subgroups’ High and Low Ends (approx. 15%) of the Distribution

of Reading and Math Proficiency

Reading Math

Low High Low High

1972 1992 1972 1992 1972 1992 1972 1992

Total SE .35 .52 .41 .59 .33 .54 .40 .61 

Unweighted N 2837 1740 2859 2605 2784 1673 2787 2605 

Sex

Male .45 .81 .49 .71 .41 .75 .57 .85 

Female .44 .54 .56 .88 .47 .59 .50 .74 

Race/Ethnicity

Black 1.46 1.79 .53 .75 1.50 2.44 .48 .79 

White .32 .57 .46 .72 .31 .45 .46 .72 

Asian 2.58 2.04 3.28 1.94 2.38 2.02 3.29 2.44 

Hisp. 1.77 1.54 .82 .98 1.87 1.41 .76 .98 

Socioeconomic Status

Low .73 1.04 .52 .50 .77 1.05 .52 .43 

Middle .44 .57 .50 .76 .41 .70 .49 .62 

High .42 1.13 .90 1.32 .40 .46 .90 1.41 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

86 
Table B2.6a

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Reporting Participation in Extracurricular Ac

Student Government Honorary Societies Subject Matter Clubs M

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 

TOTAL 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 

(16159) (26288) (14944) (16231) (26340) (14925) (16242) (26414) (14961) (1619

SEXMale 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 

(8012) (12497) (7382) (8030) (12530) (7372) (8037) (12570) (7386) (7987

Female 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 

(8147) (13791) (7562) (8201) (13810) (7553) (8205) (13844) (7575) (8210

RACE/ETHNICITYBlack 1.2 0.9 2.1 0.8 0.8 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.4 

(1956) (3544) (1387) (1981) (3546) (1386) (1997) (3563) (1389) (1999

White 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 

(12573) (19393) (10497) (12606) (19434) (10489) (12605) (19466) (10510) (1256

Asian 3.5 3.4 1.5 3.8 2.6 2.1 4.1 3.1 2.3 3.3 

(191) (350) (1089) (189) (353) (1090) (191) (355) (1094) (189

Hispanic 1.5 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.2 1.5 2.0 

(733) (3043) (1766) (744) (3051) (1756) (741) (3067) (1762) (738

REGIONNortheast 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 

(3530) (5505) (2907) (3535) (5507) (2904) (3533) (5525) (2919) (3525

Midwest 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.0 

(4451) (7879) (3997) (4449) (7889) (3991) (4466) (7901) (3995) (4449

South 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 

(5275) (8926) (4965) (5327) (8961) (4954) (5330) (8993) (4963) (5319

West 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 

(2907) (4979) (3060) (2924) (4982) (3061) (2917) (5002) (3069) (2909
Table B2.6a

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Reporting Participation in Extracurricular Ac

(Continued)

Student Government Honorary Societies Subject Matter Clubs M

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUSLow 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 

(4610) (8112) (3611) (4639) (8124) (3600) (4641) (8165) (3612) (4639

Middle 0.6 0.5 0.8 (0.5) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 

(7695) (12468) (7010) (7733) (12514) (7009) (7742) (12517) (7024) (7703

High 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0 

(3801) (6032) (4323) (3806) (6024) (4316) (3805) (6054) (4325) (3802

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAMGeneral 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 

(5493) (9950) (5312) (5518) (9979) (5307) (5521) (10008) (5311) (5506

Academic 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 

(6658) (10313) (7199) (6666) (10315) (7197) (6670) (10330) (7218) (6646

Vocational 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.2 0.7 

(4011) (6637) (1635) (4050) (6658) (1627) (4054) (6686) (1634) (4049

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE

Low 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.5 0.8 

(4378) (6647) (2284) (4407) (6673) (2283) (4426) (6719) (2284) (441

Middle 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 

(7551) (11640) (6430) (7594) (11656) (6419) (7589) (11664) (6438) (7558

High 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.0 

(3422) (5722) (3984) (3422) (5734) (3980) (3415) (5740) (3990) (3419

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study 
Table B2.6b

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Reporting Participation in Extracurricular Ac

Athletics Cheerleading Newspaper or

Yearbook

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 197

TOTAL 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 

(16448) (26723) (15088) (16243) (26391) (14596) (16229) (26320) (14929) (1631

SEXMale 0.7 0.6 (0.9) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 

(8186) (12774) (7461) (7985) (12522) (7116) (8023) (12528) (7371) (806

Female 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 

(8262) (13949) (7627) (8258) (13869) (7480) (8206) (13792) (7558) (824

RACE/ETHNICITYBlack 1.4 1.1 2.2 1.1 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.6 

(2058) (3669) (1405) (1991) (3576) (1346) (1996) (3546) (1381) (201

White 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 (0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 

(12718) (19646) (10582) (12609) (19447) (10246) (12600) (19414) (10494) (1265

Asian 3.8 3.6 2.3 3.0 2.3 0.9 3.1 2.8 1.6 2.8 

(190) (358) (1105) (190) (355) (1074) (191) (353) (1087) (192

Hispanic 2.1 1.4 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.5 2.5 

(760) (3119) (1790) (745) (3055) (1728) (735) (3053) (1762) (743

REGIONNortheast 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.1 

(3582) (5608) (2947) (3517) (5504) (2832) (3527) (5503) (2908) (354

Midwest 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.0 

(4518) (7976) (4013) (4467) (7902) (3889) (4450) (7879) (3995) (446

South 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 

(5402) (9130) (5015) (5333) (9002) (4863) (5332) (8962) (4948) (537

West 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 

(2951) (5065) (3097) (2930) (4989) (2996) (2924) (4983) (3063) (292
Table B2.6b

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Reporting Participation in Extracurricular Ac

(Continued)

Athletics Cheerleading Newspaper or

Yearbook

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 197

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUSLow 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 

(4731) (8281) (3653) (4651) (8168) (3547) (4638) (8127) (3602) (468

Middle 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 

(7831) (12654) (7074) (7738) (12519) (6861) (7742) (12498) (7010) (775

High 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.5 0.7 

(3830) (6124) (4361) (3800) (6034) (4188) (3796) (6028) (4317) (381

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAMGeneral 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 

(5591) (10142) (5358) (5515) (9990) (5180) (5512) (9972) (5306) (554

Academic 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 

(6744) (10449) (7271) (6670) (10333) (7049) (6665) (10299) (7198) (667

Vocational 1.0 0.8 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.1 

(4117) (6782) (1649) (4061) (6682) (1599) (4055) (6662) (1633) (408

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE

Low 0.9 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.9 

(4526) (6845) (2324) (4421) (6703) (2202) (4410) (6673) (2280) (446

Middle 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 

(7655) (5961) (6477) (7586) (11664) (6294) (7585) (11640) (6424) (760

High 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.7 

(3441) (5816) (4001) (3422) (5732) (3885) (3419) (5719) (3979) (342

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B3.1

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Planning to Work

in Year Following High School Graduation

1972 1980 1992

TOTAL 0.5 

(16588) 

0.6 

(26464) 

0.5 

(14859) 

SEX

Male 0.7 0.8 0.7 

(8235) (12615) (7080) 

Female 0.6 0.6 0.6 

(8353) (13849) (7779) 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 1.4 1.2 1.2 

(2115) (3638) (1299) 

White 0.5 0.6 0.6 

(12782) (19538) (10566) 

Asian 3.9 2.1 2.2 

(191) (360) (1096) 

Hispanic 2.0 1.5 1.3 

(771) (3101) (1699) 

REGION

Northeast 1.0 1.3 1.1 

(3604) (5520) (2951) 

Midwest 0.8 0.9 0.8 

(4546) (7893) (3946) 

South 0.8 0.9 0.9 

(5485) (9057) (4895) 

West 1.0 1.2 1.0 

(2958) (4963) (3045) 

91 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B3.1

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Planning to Work

in Year Following High School Graduation

(Continued)

1972 1980 1992

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low 0.9 0.8 1.1 

(4809) (8184) (3400) 

Middle 0.6 0.6 0.6 

(7885) (12557) (6938) 

High 0.6 0.7 0.5 

(3835) (6078) (4521) 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 0.8 0.7 0.9 

(5643) (9983) (5276) 

Academic 0.5 0.5 0.4 

(6767) (10390) (7296) 

Vocational 0.9 0.8 1.6 

(4182) (6685) (1540) 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE

Low 0.9 0.8 1.4 

(4632) (6708) (2057) 

Middle 0.6 0.8 0.7 

(7683) (5872) (6030) 

High 0.7 0.8 0.5 

(3440) (5784) (3865) 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

92 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B3.1a

Data and Standard Errors for Figure 3.1: Seniors’ Plans for Next Year

Work School Other

1972 31.9 59.0 9.1 

1980 35.4 58.3 6.3 

1992 14.2 77.9 7.9 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

Table 3.1b

Standard Errors for Figure 3.1: Senior’s Plans for Next Year

Work School Other Unweighted N

1972 0.5 0.5 0.3 16563 

1980 0.5 0.6 0.2 27433 

1992 0.5 0.6 0.3 14859 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

93 
Table B3.2

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Who Plan to Continue Education Next Year at Four-

Two-Year Academic Programs, Two-Year Vocational Programs, or Trade and Technical Schools

Four-Year Program Two-Year Academic Two-Year Vocational Tra

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 197

TOTAL 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 

(16588) (26464) (14056) (16588) (26464) (14506) (16588) (26464) (14506) (1658

SEXMale 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 

(8235) (12615) (7149) (8235) (12615) (7149) (8235) (12615) (7149) (823

Female 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 

(8353) (13849) (7357) (8353) (13849) (7357) (8353) (13849) (7357) (835

RACE/ETHNICITYBlack 1.3 1.2 2.3 0.6 0.5 1.7 0.5 0.4 1.4 0.8 

(2115) (3638) (1308) (2115) (3638) (1308) (2115) (3638) (1308) (211

White 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 

(12782) (19538) (10329) (12782) (19538) (10329) (12782) (19538) (10329) (1278

Asian 4.4 2.9 2.6 3.0 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.9 0.7 1.5 

(191) (360) (1060) (191) (360) (1060) (191) (360) (1060) (191

Hispanic 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 

(771) (3101) (1611) (771) (3101) (1611) (771) (3101) (1611) (771

REGIONNortheast 1.2 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 

(3604) (5520) (2902) (3604) (5520) (2902) (3604) (5520) (2902) (360

Midwest 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 

(4546) (7893) (3865) (4546) (7893) (3865) (4546) (7893) (3865) (454

South 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 

(5485) (9057) (4807) (5485) (9057) (4807) (5485) (9057) (4807) (548

West 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 

(2958) (4963) (2910) (2958) (4963) (2910) (2958) (4963) (2910) (295
Table B3.2

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Who Plan to Continue Education Next Year at Four-

Two-Year Academic Programs, Two-Year Vocational Programs, or Trade and Technical Schools

(Continued)

Four-Year Program Two-Year Academic Two-Year Vocational Tra

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 197

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUSLow 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 

(4809) (8184) (3348) (4809) (8184) (3348) (4809) (8184) (3348) (480

Middle 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 

(7885) (12557) (6768) (7885) (12557) (6768) (7885) (12557) (6768) (788

High 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 

(3835) (6078) (4390) (3835) (6078) (4390) (3835) (6078) (4390) (3835

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAMGeneral 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 

(5643) (9983) (5135) (5643) (9983) (5135) (5643) (9983) (5135) (564

Academic 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 

(6767) (10390) (7171) (6767) (10390) (7171) (6767) (10390) (7171) (676

Vocational 0.5 0.5 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.4 1.4 0.7 

(9182) (6685) (1514) (9182) (6685) (1514) (9182) (6685) (1514) (918

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE

Low 0.6 0.6 1.7 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.6 

(4632) (6708) (1988) (4632) (6708) (1988) (4632) (6708) (1988) (463

Middle 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 

(7683) (5872) (5904) (7683) (5872) (5904) (7683) (5872) (5904) (768

High 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 

(3440) (5784) (3845) (3440) (5784) (3845) (3440) (5784) (3845) (344

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B3.3a

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of College-Bound Seniors

Who Reported Various Financial Factors Were "Very Important" in Selecting a College

Expenses Financial Aid

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

TOTAL 0.6 0.5 0.8 

(8475) (19424) (12297) 

0.6 0.6 0.8 

(8433) (19362) (12285) 

SEX

Male 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.2 

(4289) (8859) (5760) (4267) (8835) (5755) 

Female 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.0 

(4186) (10565) (6537) (4166) (10527) (6530) 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 1.9 1.3 2.8 1.8 1.1 2.8 

(956) (2473) (1030) (955) (2461) (1026) 

White 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 

(6779) (13964) (8789) (6742) (13929) (8782) 

Asian 4.6 3.6 2.2 3.8 3.2 2.4 

(147) (324) (981) (146) (325) (981) 

Hispanic 2.8 1.7 2.2 3.0 1.8 2.0 

(356) (2189) (1348) (355) (2176) (1347) 

REGION

Northeast 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.4 1.8 

(1963) (3986) (2571) (1954) (3979) (2567) 

Midwest 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.5 

(2149) (5375) (3253) (2134) (5363) (3251) 

South 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.6 

(2646) (6228) (3957) (2635) (6201) (3954) 

West 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.7 

(1718) (3900) (2498) (1711) (3883) (2494) 

96 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B3.3a

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of College-Bound Seniors

Who Reported Various Financial Factors Were "Very Important" in Selecting a College

(Continued)

Expenses Financial Aid

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low 1.6 0.9 1.4 1.5 0.9 1.6 

(1585) (4889) (2387) (1584) (4864) (2381) 

Middle 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.1 

(3872) (9015) (5734) (3851) (8995) (5732) 

High 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.3 

(2998) (5358) (4176) (2978) (5341) (4172) 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.1 

(2170) (6323) (4041) (2156) (6296) (4037) 

Academic 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 

(5435) (9293) (6762) (5415) (9286) (6756) 

Vocational 1.9 1.0 2.3 1.9 1.0 2.3 

(871) (3651) (990) (863) (3625) (991) 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE

Low 1.8 1.1 2.2 1.9 1.2 2.2 

(1176) (3544) (1335) (1165) (3519) (1331) 

Middle 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.1 

(4058) (8511) (5015) (4037) (8483) (5010) 

High 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.3 

(2808) (5228) (3688) (2799) (5225) (3685) 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

97 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B3.3b

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of College-Bound Seniors

Who Reported Various Academic Factors Were "Very Important"

in Selecting a College

Course Availability Reputation of Institution

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

TOTAL 0.6 0.5 0.7 

(8411) (19168) (12266) 

0.7 0.5 0.7 

(8415) (19210) (12226) 

SEX

Male 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.0 

(4257) (8744) (5742) (4257) (8765) (5721) 

Female 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 

(4154) (10424) (6524) (4158) (10445) (6505) 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black 2.0 1.2 2.7 2.0 1.2 2.6 

(928) (2408) (1022) (930) (2412) (1021) 

White 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 

(6753) (13834) (8772) (6749) (13852) (8750) 

Asian 4.1 2.6 2.4 4.8 3.6 2.3 

(147) (321) (980) (147) (322) (972) 

Hispanic 2.6 1.6 2.0 2.8 1.6 2.4 

(351) (2137) (1343) (354) (2149) (1335) 

REGION

Northeast 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.4 

(1951) (3942) (2565) (1954) (3949) (2565) 

Midwest 1.2 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.3 

(2134) (5308) (3249) (2133) (5331) (3244) 

South 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.8 1.4 

(2622) (6130) (3944) (2620) (6140) (3924) 

West 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.6 

(1705) (3805) (2489) (1709) (3851) (2474) 

98 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B3.3b

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of College-Bound Seniors

Who Reported Various Academic Factors Were "Very Important"

in Selecting a College

(Continued)

Course Availability Reputation of Institution

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS

Low 1.5 0.9 1.4 1.5 0.9 1.5 

(1562) (4796) (2374) (1566) (4807) (2367) 

Middle 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 1.0 

(3846) (8922) (5728) (3848) (8927) (5701) 

High 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.2 

(2986) (5298) (4164) (2982) (5318) (4158) 

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAM

General 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.7 1.2 

(2140) (6219) (4026) (2145) (6236) (4014) 

Academic 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.0 

(5413) (9226) (6748) (5413) (9240) (6728) 

Vocational 1.9 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.0 2.2 

(859) (3574) (989) (858) (3580) (984) 

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE

Low 1.6 1.1 2.3 1.6 1.0 2.3 

(1145) (3433) (1331) (1144) (3460) (1319) 

Middle 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 

(4038) (8413) (4998) (4043) (8427) (4989) 

High 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.3 

(2801) (5206) (3683) (2801) (5211) (3670) 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

99 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B3.4

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of College-Bound

Seniors Expecting to Major in Each Field

1972 1980 1992

Agriculture 0.2 0.2 0.2 

(7556) (16047) (9770) 

Architecture 0.2 0.2 0.2 

Art 0.2 0.2 0.3 

Biological Sciences 0.4 0.2 0.2 

Business 0.4 0.4 0.6 

Communications 0.2 0.2 0.3 

Computer and Information Science 0.2 0.2 0.3 

Education 0.4 0.2 0.4 

Engineering 0.3 0.3 0.4 

English 0.2 0.2 0.3 

Ethnic Studies 0.1 0.0 0.3 

Foreign Languages 0.2 0.1 0.1 

Health Occupations 0.5 0.3 0.6 

Home Economics 0.1 0.1 0.1 

Interdisciplinary Studies 0.2 0.0 0.0 

Mathematics 0.2 0.1 0.1 

Music 0.2 0.2 0.2 

Philosophy 0.2 0.1 0.1 

Physical Science 0.2 0.1 0.2 

Pre-Professional1 0.0 0.2 0.6 

Social Sciences 0.5 0.3 0.5 

1

Category not included in 1972 questionnaire. 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

100 
Table B4.1

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Planning to Attain Various Levels of Educa

High School or Less Some College Finish College 

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1

TOTAL 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 

(12282) (26426) (14713) (12282) (26426) (14713) (12282) (26426) (14713) (1

SEXMale 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.9 

(5963) (12563) (7195) (5963) (12563) (7195) (5963) (12563) (7195) (5

Female 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.9 

(6319) (13863) (7518) (6319) (13863) (7518) (6319) (13863) (7518) (6

RACE/ETHNICITYBlack 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.7 1.0 1.7 1.6 0.8 2.2 

(1110) (3631) (1332) (1110) (3631) (1332) (1110) (3631) (1332) (1

White 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 

(10144) (19502) (10459) (10144) (19502) (10459) (10144) (19502) (10459) (1

Asian 3.2 1.1 0.8 3.8 2.4 2.4 4.8 3.2 2.4 

(148) (354) (1059) (148) (354) (1059) (148) (354) (1059) (

Hispanic 2.0 1.4 0.9 2.6 1.3 2.1 2.6 1.1 1.6 

(458) (3112) (1667) (458) (3112) (1667) (458) (3112) (1667) (

REGIONNortheast 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.8 1.6 

(2746) (5512) (2888) (2746) (5512) (2888) (2746) (5512) (2888) (2

Midwest 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.1 

(3517) (7924) (3915) (3517) (7924) (3915) (3517) (7924) (3915) (3

South 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 1.1 

(3899) (9039) (4919) (3899) (9039) (4919) (3899) (9039) (4919) (3

West 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.8 1.3 

(2123) (4954) (2969) (2123) (4954) (2969) (2123) (4954) (2969) (2
Table B4.1

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors Planning to Attain Various Levels of Educa

(Continued)

High School or Less Some College Finish College 

1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1972 1980 1992 1

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUSLow 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 1.1 

(3059) (8193) (3395) (3059) (8193) (3395) (3059) (8193) (3395) (3

Middle 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.9 

(5897) (12548) (6897) (5897) (12548) (6897) (5897) (12548) (6897) (5

High 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.4 1.2 

(3305) (6066) (4421) (3305) (6066) (4421) (3305) (6066) (4421) (3

HIGH SCHOOL PROGRAMGeneral 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 1.0 

(3896) (10003) (5228) (3896) (10003) (5228) (3896) (10003) (5228) (3

Academic 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.0 

(5710) (10358) (7240) (5710) (10358) (7240) (5710) (10358) (7240) (5

Vocational 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.8 0.7 0.5 1.6 

(2679) (6685) (1567) (2679) (6685) (1567) (2679) (6685) (1567) (2

COMPOSITE TEST QUARTILE

Low 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.5 1.2 

(2406) (6715) (1997) (2406) (6715) (1997) (2406) (6715) (1997) (2

Middle 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 

(6072) (5896) (6044) (6072) (5896) (6044) (6072) (5896) (6044) (6

High 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.3 

(3221) (5781) (3850) (3221) (5781) (3850) (3221) (5781) (3850) (3

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B4.2

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors

Who Expect to be in Various Occupations

1972 1980 1992

Clerical 0.4 0.2 0.2 

(1938) (2615) (475) 

Craftsman 0.3 0.2 0.2 

(944) (1999) (364) 

Farmer 0.1 0.1 0.1 

(210) (496) (131) 

Homemaker 0.2 0.1 0.1 

(383) (695) (153) 

Laborer 0.2 0.1 0.1 

(316) (472) (98) 

Manager 0.2 0.2 0.3 

(377) (1807) (805) 

Military 0.2 0.1 0.3 

(311) (523) (369) 

Operative 0.2 0.1 0.2 

(302) (699) (132) 

Professional 0.6 0.5 0.7 

(5543) (11285) (8334) 

Proprietor 0.1 0.2 0.3 

(222) (969) (905) 

Protective Services 0.2 0.1 0.2 

(261) (479) (553) 

Sales 0.2 0.1 0.2 

(373) (511) (257) 

Service 0.2 0.2 0.2 

(532) (875) (324) 

Technical 0.2 0.2 0.3 

(857) (2138) (798) 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

103 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B4.3

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors

Who Expect to be in Various Occupations by Sex and Race/Ethnicity

1972 1980 1992

Clerical (1)

Sex: Male 0.2 0.1 0.2 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female 0.7 0.4 0.4 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 1.7 0.6 0.7 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.4 0.3 0.2 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 2.5 1.4 0.6 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 2.5 0.9 0.8 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

Craftsman (2)

Sex: Male 0.6 0.4 0.3 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female 0.1 0.1 0.1 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 0.6 0.5 0.4 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.3 0.3 0.2 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 1.7 1.2 0.8 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 1.4 0.7 0.4 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

104 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B4.3

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors

Who Expect to be in Various Occupations by Sex and Race/Ethnicity

(Continued)

1972 1980 1992

Farmer (3)

Sex: Male 0.2 0.2 0.2 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female 0.1 0.1 0.1 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 0.2 0.1 0.4 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.1 0.2 0.1 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 0.0 0.4 0.0 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 0.5 0.4 0.3 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

Homemaker (4)

Sex: Male 0.0 0.0 0.0 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female 0.3 0.3 0.2 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 0.5 0.2 0.2 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.2 0.2 0.2 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 0.0 0.7 0.3 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 0.8 0.4 0.2 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

105 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B4.3

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors

Who Expect to be in Various Occupations by Sex and Race/Ethnicity

(Continued)

1972 1980 1992

Laborer (5)

Sex: Male 0.3 0.2 0.2 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female 0.1 0.0 0.0 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 0.5 0.2 0.2 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.2 0.1 0.1 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 0.6 0.4 0.7 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 0.8 0.4 0.2 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

Manager (6)

Sex: Male 0.3 0.3 0.5 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female 0.2 0.3 0.4 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 0.6 0.6 1.4 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.2 0.2 0.3 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 0.8 2.5 1.7 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 0.8 0.5 0.9 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

106 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B4.3

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors

Who Expect to be in Various Occupations by Sex and Race/Ethnicity

(Continued)

1972 1980 1992

Military (7)

Sex: Male 0.3 0.2 0.6 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female 0.1 0.1 0.2 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 0.8 0.4 1.8 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.2 0.1 0.3 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 1.1 0.9 0.6 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 0.6 0.4 0.7 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

Operative (8)

Sex: Male 0.3 0.2 0.3 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female 0.1 0.1 0.1 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 0.5 0.3 0.6 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.2 0.1 0.2 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 1.7 0.8 0.4 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 0.8 0.5 0.2 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

107 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B4.3

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors

Who Expect to be in Various Occupations by Sex and Race/Ethnicity

(Continued)

1972 1980 1992

Professional (9)

Sex: Male 0.9 0.7 1.1 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female (0.8) 0.6 0.8 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 2.0 1.1 2.3 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.7 0.6 0.8 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 4.5 3.5 2.7 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 2.5 1.5 2.2 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

Proprietor (10)

Sex: Male 0.2 0.2 0.5 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female 0.1 0.2 0.4 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 0.3 0.4 0.9 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.2 0.2 0.4 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 1.0 0.8 1.6 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 0.6 0.5 1.0 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

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Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B4.3

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors

Who Expect to be in Various Occupations by Sex and Race/Ethnicity

(Continued)

1972 1980 1992

Protective Services (11)

Sex: Male 0.3 0.2 0.4 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female 0.1 0.1 0.2 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 0.4 0.2 0.7 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.2 0.1 0.3 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 0.3 0.6 0.9 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 0.9 0.4 0.8 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

Sales (12)

Sex: Male 0.2 0.2 0.4 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female 0.3 0.2 0.2 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 0.4 0.4 0.5 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.2 0.1 0.3 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 1.2 0.1 0.4 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 0.6 0.4 0.4 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

109 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table B4.3

Standard Errors (unweighted Ns) for Percentages of Seniors

Who Expect to be in Various Occupations by Sex and Race/Ethnicity

(Continued)

1972 1980 1992

Service (13)

Sex: Male 0.2 0.1 0.2 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female 0.3 0.3 0.3 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 0.5 0.4 0.5 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.2 0.2 0.2 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 3.3 1.0 0.3 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 1.1 0.5 0.8 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

Technical (14)

Sex: Male 0.4 0.3 0.5 

(5982) (12144) (6765) 

Female 0.3 0.2 0.4 

(6587) (13419) (6933) 

Race: Black 0.8 0.6 0.8 

(1078) (3503) (1239) 

White 0.3 0.2 0.3 

(10427) (18867) (9699) 

Asian 2.6 1.9 1.2 

(150) (350) (1014) 

Hispanic 1.4 0.7 1.0 

(480) (2968) (1567) 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior 

Cohort; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Second Follow-up, 1992. 

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Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Appendix C:

Description of Surveys and Cross-Cohort Comparisons

111 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Appendix C. Description of Surveys and Cross-Cohort Comparisons

The U.S. Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is mandated 

to "collect and disseminate statistics and other data related to education in the United States" and to 

"conduct and publish reports on specific analyses of the meaning and significance of such statistics" 

(Education Amendments of 1974-Public Law 93-380, Title V, Section 501, amending Part A of the 

General Education Provisions Act). 

Consistent with this mandate and in response to the need for policy-relevant, time-series data on 

nationally representative samples of elementary and secondary students, NCES instituted the National 

Education Longitudinal Studies (NELS) program, a continuing long-term project. The general aim of the 

NELS program is to study the educational, vocational, and personal development of students at various 

grade levels, and the personal, familial, social, institutional, and cultural factors that may affect that 

development. The NELS program currently consists of three major studies: the National Longitudinal 

Study of the High School Class of 1972 (NLS-72); High School and Beyond (HS&B); and the National 

Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88). Taken together, these studies represent the educational 

experience of youth from three decades -- the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. A fourth NELS study that will 

begin with a kindergarten cohort - the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS) - is currently in its 

design phase. Figure 1-1 illustrates the increasing number of issues that have become part of NCES’s 

National Education Longitudinal Studies research agenda. A brief description of NLS-72, HS&B, and 

NELS:88 follows. 

The National Longitudinal Study of the 1970s: NLS-72. The first of the NELS projects, the 

National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 (NLS-72), began in the spring of 1972 with 

a survey of a national probability sample of 19,001 seniors from 1,061 public, secular private, and 

church-affiliated high schools. The sample was designed to be representative of the approximately three 

million high school seniors enrolled in more than 17,000 schools in the spring of 1972. Each sample 

member was asked to complete a student questionnaire and a 69-minute test battery. School administrators 

were also asked to supply survey data on each student, as well as information about the schools’ programs, 

resources, and grading systems. Five follow-ups, conducted in 1973, 1974, 1976, 1979, and 1986, have 

been completed. 

In addition to background information, the NLS-72 base year and follow-up surveys collected data 

on respondents’ educational activities such as schools attended, grades received, and degree of satisfaction 

with their educational institutions. Participants were also asked about work experiences, periods of 

unemployment, job satisfaction, military service, marital status, and children. Respondents have also 

supplied attitudinal information on self-concept, goals, participation in political activities, and ratings of 

their high schools. 

High School and Beyond of the 1980s: HS&B. The next major longitudinal study sponsored 

by NCES was High School and Beyond. HS&B was initiated in order to capture changes that had 

occurred in education-related and more general social conditions, in federal and state programs, and in the 

needs and characteristics of students since the time of the earlier survey. Thus, HS&B was designed to 

maintain the flow of education data to policymakers at all levels who need to base their decisions on data 

that are reliable, relevant, and current. 

Base year data collection was conducted in the spring of 1980. Students were selected using a 

two-stage probability sample with schools as the first-stage units and students within schools as the 

second-stage units. Unlike NLS-72, HS&B included cohorts of both 10th and 12th graders. Since the 

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1972-1992

113 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

base year data collection in 1980, four follow-ups of the HS&B cohorts have been completed, in the 

spring of 1982, 1984, 1986, and (for the sophomore cohort only) 1992. 

The four NELS program cohorts (NLS-72 seniors, the HS&B sophomores and seniors, and 

NELS:88 eighth graders) are displayed in Figure 1-2 according to their initial and subsequent survey years 

and their modal age at the time of each survey. As illustrated, NLS-72 seniors were first surveyed in 1972 

at age 18 and have been resurveyed five times since, with the last survey occurring in 1986, when these 

respondents were about 32 years of age. The HS&B cohorts have been surveyed at points in time that 

would permit as much comparison as possible with the time points selected for NLS-72. 

The National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988. The base year of the National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88) represented the first stage of a major longitudinal effort designed 

to provide trend data about critical transitions experienced by students as they leave elementary school and 

progress through high school and into postsecondary institutions or the work force. The base year study, 

conducted in the spring term of the 1987-88 school year, selected 26,432 potential eighth grade 

participants, of whom 24,599 were successfully surveyed in 1,052 public and private schools. Additional 

data were gathered from eighth graders’ parents, teachers, and principals. 

The first follow-up in 1990 provided the first opportunity for longitudinal measurement of the 1988 

baseline sample. It also provided a comparison point to high school sophomores ten years before, as 

studied in HS&B. The study captured the population of early dropouts (those who leave school between 

the end of eighth grade and the end of tenth grade), while monitoring the transition of the student 

population into secondary schooling. 

The second follow-up took place in 1992, when most sample members entered the second term 

of their senior year. The second follow-up provides a culminating measurement of learning in the course 

of secondary school, and also collects information that will facilitate investigation of the transition into 

the labor force and postsecondary education after high school. Freshening22 the NELS:88 sample to 

represent the 12th grade class of 1992 makes trend comparisons with the senior cohorts that were studied 

in NLS-72 and HS&B possible. The NELS:88 second follow-up resurveyed students who were identified 

as dropouts in 1990, and identified and surveyed those additional students who left school after the first

follow-up.

The NELS:88 third follow-up took place in 1994, at a time when most sample members were in 

postsecondary education or in the labor force. A major goal of the 1994 round was to provide data for 

trend comparisons with NLS-72 and HS&B, and to continue cross-wave comparisons with previous 

NELS:88 rounds. Additionally, the third follow-up will permit researchers to assess the effect of eighth 

grade and high school curricular experiences on postsecondary education choice. The 1994 follow-up will 

provide the means to examine access of individuals with different backgrounds to different kinds of 

educational institutions. It will also facilitate study of the influences of high school education experiences 

on postsecondary education and employment opportunities and choices. Labor force participation, 

postsecondary persistence, curricular progress, and family formation are further research topics which will 

be explored by the third follow-up. Additionally, the 1994 survey will provide a basis for assessing how 

22 The process referred to here as "freshening" added students who were not in the base year sampling frame, either because 

they were not in the country or because they were not in eighth grade in the spring term of 1988. The 1990 freshening process 

provided a representative sample of students enrolled in 10th grade in the spring of 1990. The 1992 freshening process provided 

a representative sample of students enrolled in 12th grade in the spring of 1992. 

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Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

115 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

many dropouts have returned to school and by what route, and will measure the access of dropouts to 

vocational training programs and to other postsecondary institutions. A fourth follow-up is scheduled for 

1998. 

Cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis. NELS:88 is a longitudinal study. In such a study, 

a probability sample of a population is drawn at one time (for NELS:88, 1988 eighth graders) and the 

same individuals are measured at later times (for NELS:88, 1990, 1992, 1994, and 1998). In a crosssectional survey a probability sample is drawn from the population and measured at one point in time, and 

data are collected for only that one point in time. 

NELS:88 data can be analyzed longitudinally--one can examine what happens to the eighth grade 

cohort over time (for example, one can measure gains in mathematics achievement between 1988 and 

1992, or who drops out of school between 1988 and 1990). The capacity to measure change in individuals 

over time is a distinctive strength of the NELS:88 design. Following individual educational histories 

generally provides the best basis for making causal inference about educational processes and their effects. 

The base year of a longitudinal survey is also, by definition, a cross-sectional survey. Hence 

NELS:88 base year data can also be analyzed cross-sectionally--researchers can look at the situation of 

a nationally representative sample of eighth graders in 1987-88. NELS:88 has a special samplefreshening feature which effectively supplies two additional nationally representative cross-sections: the 

nation’s spring 1990 sophomores and spring 1992 seniors. Thus, the first and second follow-up data can 

also be analyzed either cross-sectionally or longitudinally. 

Cross-sectional data provide a snapshot at a single point in time. The capacity for longitudinal

analysis--the measurement of individual-level change--is the paramount strength of NELS:88. However, 

group-level cross-sectional data, as well, can be employed to measure stability and change over time, when

cross-sections are repeated to form a time series. NELS:88 provides two examples, through the reader 

should note that the first approach is not optimal: (1) Across waves within NELS:88, one can measure 

group-level change across successive cross-sections--eighth graders in 1988, sophomores in 1990, and 

seniors in 1992. An instance of this would be examining eighth, tenth, and twelfth grade math scores of 

Hispanics relative to whites to see if disparities became larger, smaller, or remained the same as grade 

level increased.23 (2) At the intercohort level, one can use a single round of NELS:88 in conjunction

with a corresponding population taken from comparable studies (e.g., NLS-72 and HS&B) as repeated

cross-sections (e.g., of seniors in 1972, 1980/82, and 1992) to measure trends. Such cross-cohort analysis 

is the subject of this appendix. 

The three NELS study series--NLS-72, HS&B, and NELS:88--offer a number of possible time 

points for comparison. The possible comparison points, and the considerations of content and design 

which may affect the comparability of data across the cohorts, are discussed in detail in the remainder of 

this appendix. 

23 This kind of analysis is only appropriate if the phenomenon to be studied is not subject to extremely rapid change, because 

it does not permit historical trends and grade level differences to be disentangled. Note that this measurement would involve use 

of three overlapping but nonidentical samples. For example, not all eighth graders would progress to tenth grade at time 2 (1990), 

and to be representative of tenth graders (in 1990) the sample would have to be freshened with individuals who were not eighth 

graders in 1988, and so on. In contrast, a longitudinal measurement would employ an identical (that is, a single) sample surveyed 

at three time points--the eighth grade cohort in 1988, 1990, and 1992--following individuals who remain in school regardless of 

whether they progress in modal sequence, and following individuals who leave school as well, that is, who become dropouts or early 

graduates. 

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Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Conducting Trend Analyses of NLS-72, HS&B, and NELS:88 Seniors:

Analytical Implications of Design Differences Between the Studies

This section discusses the kinds of comparisons that can be made between NELS:88, HS&B, and 

NLS-72, and the time points at which these comparisons can be made. This appendix also points to issues 

of similarity and difference in sample design and test and questionnaire content. NELS:88 has been 

specifically designed to facilitate comparisons with NLS-72 and HS&B. At the "student" level, three kinds 

of comparative analysis are possible (described below and summarized in Table 1). 

1) Cohorts can be compared on an intergenerational or cross-cohort time-lag basis. Both crosssectional and longitudinal time-lag comparisons are possible. For example, (1-A) cross-sectionally, 

NELS:88 1992 results (when restricted to sample members who are seniors) can be regarded as the third 

in a series of repeated cross-sections of 12th graders. That is to say, the status of NELS:88 second followup seniors in 1992 can be compared to HS&B base year seniors in 1980, and to NLS-72 seniors in 1972. 

Longitudinally (1-B), change for NELS:88 1990 sophomores two years later (that is, in 1992, when the 

cohort included both students and dropouts) can be compared to changes measured in 1982 from a 1980 

HS&B sophomore baseline. 

2) Fixed time comparisons are also possible in which groups within each study are compared to 

each other at different ages though at the same point in time. Thus NLS-72, HS&B senior cohort, and 

HS&B sophomore cohort sample members could all be compared in 1986, some 14, 6, and 4 years after 

each respective cohort completed high school. (For example, employment rates in 1986 of 22, 24, and 

32-year old high school graduates can be contrasted.) The only available fixed time comparison using 

NELS:88 data, however, involves contrasting HS&B fourth follow-up and NELS:88 second follow-up 1992 

results. One might, for example, compare the 1992 educational expectations of the two cohorts to explore 

how 17-18 year olds differ from 27-28 year olds in this respect. Or one might utilize the 1992 life values 

responses (questions concerning the importance to the respondent of being successful in work, having a 

lot of money, having strong friendships, and so on) to compare HS&B Fourth Follow-Up sophomore 

cohort members with NELS:88 Second Follow-Up survey participants. 

3) Finally, longitudinal comparative analysis of the cohorts can be performed by modeling the 

history of the age/grade cohorts. 

NELS:88 trend comparisons need not, however, be strictly limited to NLS-72 and HS&B. 

Comparisons are also possible using transcripts data collected for high school seniors, not only for HS&B 

1982 graduates and NELS:88 1992 graduates, but also for 1987, 1990, and 1994 graduates in NAEP 

schools.24 Other national probability samples as well may provide comparison points.25 

24 Care has been exercised in designing and implementing the academic transcript study in NELS:88 to maximize the 

comparability of NELS:88 transcript data with the high school transcript data for 1987 and 1990 graduating seniors. While an 

independent high school transcript study was not conducted in NLS-72, course-taking summary information was collected from 

school records for the 1972 seniors. For a detailed account of cross-cohort transcript comparison issues, see Ingels and Taylor, 1995. 

25 For example, major national studies of high school seniors, employing test and survey measures, were conducted in 1960 

(Project Talent) and 1965 (the Equality of Educational Opportunity Survey) (see Schrader and Hilton in Hilton [ed.] 1992 for a 

discussion of comparability issues); also, the high school graduating classes of 1975-94 have been surveyed (and followed up as 

young adults) by Monitoring the Future: A Continuing Study of the Lifestyles and Values of Youth, a key source of trend data on, 

in particular, drug use and associated factors. (The study added 8th- and 10th-grade cohorts in 1991). Items that are strictly 

comparable across such data sets are, however, uncommon. Beginning in 1987, the Longitudinal Study of American Youth (LSAY) 

collected student, parent, and teacher data for cohorts of seventh and tenth graders (see Miller et al., 1992). Although the data are 

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Trends Among High School Seniors

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Table 1: Types of possible NELS:88 trend comparisons to NLS-72 and HS&B

I. Cross-Sectional Comparisons

A. Cross-Cohort Time-Lag Comparisons

1. 1980/1990: 1980 sophomores versus 1990 Sophomores26 

2. 1982/1992: 1980 Sophomores Two Years Later versus 1990 Sophomores Two 

Years Later 

3. 1979/80-82 Continuous High School Careers of 1980 Sophomores versus 

1989/90-1992 Continuous High School Careers of 1990 Sophomores: Transcript 

Comparison 

4. 1972/1980/1992: 1972, 1980, and 1992 Seniors27 

5. 1972/1982/1992: High School Seniors; Adjustment for nonrepresentativeness of 

1982 senior sample28 

6. 1974/1982(1984)/1994: High School Seniors Two Years Later 

7. 1984/1994: High School Sophomores Four Years Later 

8. 1986/1998: High School Seniors Six Years Later 

B. NELS:88 Fixed-Time Comparison to HS&B:

HS&B 1992 (fourth follow-up, ten years out of high school) versus NELS:88 1992 

(second follow-up, modal grade = high school senior) 

roughly contemporaneous with those of NELS:88 and the primary emphasis limited to science and mathematics, LSAY contains a 

number of NELS:88 (and HS&B) comparison items. In contrast to NELS:88’s biennial data collections, LSAY provides annual data 

points that may help to map trends more precisely and to demarcate transitions. The Prospects study, a nationally-representative 

multicohort longitudinal evaluation of Chapter 1 (now Title 1) with its first data collection in 1991, utilized many items from the 

NELS:88 questionnaires and thus provides a number of comparable data elements at several comparison points (e.g., eighth graders 

in 1992 versus eighth graders in 1988). Prospects supplies a rich perspective on student populations receiving compensatory 

education services from the Federal government or through programs sponsored by the school district. (See Puma, Jones, Rock and 

Fernandez, 1993). NLSY79 (household rather than school based) also traces the transition of high school-age youth into 

postsecondary education (CHRR, 1993) and the labor market, as will NLSY96 for a new cohort of adolescents. 

26 Must exclude all NELS:88 students who are nonsophomores and all nonstudents (dropouts). 

27 Must exclude all NELS:88 second follow-up dropouts (including alternative completers), early graduates, and students who 

were not 12th graders in the spring term of 1992. 

28 NELS:88 conditions as above (seniors only); HS&B must exclude dropouts and nonseniors and statistically adjust for nonrepresentativeness of sophomore cohort. 

118 
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____________________________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________________________

Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 1 (continued): Types of possible NELS:88 trend comparisons to NLS-72 and HS&B

II. Longitudinal Comparisons

Longitudinal comparative analysis of the four cohorts can be performed by modeling the history 

of the age/grade cohorts. (Also, comparisons IA[2] above, involving use of change data in a timelag comparison, may be viewed as having a longitudinal dimension.) 

Possible Time Points for Comparative Analyses

Institution-level comparisons. Comparisons are not limited to cohorts of individuals; the student 

samples as well as the baseline school samples of NELS:88, HS&B, and NLS-72 are nationally 

representative, and considerable data have been collected about school-level characteristics. However, the 

only natural comparison points are of NLS-72 (1972) and HS&B (1980) high schools, since the NELS:88 

base year school sample was limited to eighth grades.29 

Table 2: Nationally-representative school samples in NELS program database

Representative Nonrepresentative

School Sample School Sample

NLS-72 1972 

HS&B-Sr 1980 

HS&B-So 1980 198230 

NELS:88 1988 1990, 1992 

29 However, the 1988 NELS:88 school sample might be compared to other data sets, such as the ongoing series of NCES 

Schools and Staffing Surveys. 

30 A probability subsample of the 1982 HS&B schools was resurveyed in the 1984 Administrator and Teacher Survey. In 

an institution-level longitudinal follow-up, these schools were resurveyed in 1992, as part of the National Longitudinal Study of 

Schools (NLSS). Unlike HS&B in 1982 and 1984, NLSS freshened the HS&B school sample to make it nationally representative 

of public and private secondary schools in the United States in 1992. 

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Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 3: Comparison Points

National Education Longitudinal Studies Program

Students

NLS-72 HS&B-So HS&B-Sr NELS:88

G8 1988*

G10 1980* 1990* 

G12 1972* 1982 1980* 1992*

G12 + 1 1973 

G12 + 2 1974 1984 1982 1994

G12 + 4 1976 1986 1984

G12 + 6 1986 1998

G12 + 7 1979 

G12 + 10 1992 

G12 + 14 1986 

Dropouts

G10 - G12 1982 1992

follow-up 1984 1994

(1986, 1992) (1997) 

Early Graduates 1982 1992

Parents of seniors31 1980 1992

High School Transcripts Studies

HS&B NAEP’86 NAEP’90 NELS:88 NAEP’94 

Seniors in: 1982 1987*32 1990* 1992* 1994* 

Note: Comparison points are in bold italics. Fully representative grade samples are marked by an asterisk. The 1982 and 1987 

samples only approximate representative samples of high school seniors. A further NAEP transcript study is planned for 

1996. 

31 For a crosswalk between the HS&B and NELS:88 parent questionnaires, see Appendix D of Ingels, Thalji, Pulliam, Bartot 

& Frankel; for a comparison of the design and implementation of the parent surveys, see section 4.4 of same. 

32 Based on the population of students in 11th grade and/or age 17 in 1985-86. 

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Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Individual-level comparisons. In Table 3, natural comparison points are highlighted. However, 

with technical adjustments, comparability can oftentimes be achieved even when age/grade/stage 

parallelism has not been strictly maintained.33 In addition, survey rounds that coincide with a graderepresentative sample are noted by an asterisk. Thus, HS&B (sophomore cohort) in 1980 and NELS:88 

in 1990 are nationally-representative samples of sophomores; NLS-72 in 1972, HS&B (senior cohort) in 

1980, and NELS:88 in 1992 comprise nationally representative samples of seniors. The NELS:88 sample 

was freshened to make it representative of the nation’s sophomores (1990) and seniors (1992). Sample 

freshening was not conducted in HS&B and the sophomore cohort does not constitute a valid probability 

sample of the nation’s 1982 seniors. Nevertheless, 1982 HS&B sophomore cohort and 1992 NELS:88 

can be compared, because both examine a nationally representative sample of sophomores two years later--

consisting of students (most, but not all of them, seniors), early graduates, and dropouts.34 HS&B 1982 

seniors can also be compared to 1972 NLS-72 and 1992 NELS:88 seniors, though not without some 

sample and statistical adjustments.35 

There are two major kinds of differences between NLS-72, HS&B, and NELS:88 that must be 

taken into account. One difference pertains to the sample and research designs, and the other to 

differences in questionnaire or cognitive test content that may affect the possibility of drawing valid 

comparisons. Data users who are familiar with NLS-72 and HS&B will find that despite the considerable 

similarity between these studies and NELS:88, there are also significant sample definition and statistical 

design differences, which analysts who intend to compare these cohorts should note. Similarly, while 

some effort has been made to maintain trend items over time, strict test and questionnaire overlap across 

the three studies is not considerable. 

Differences in sample design. The overall sample design for NELS:88 is essentially similar to 

the design employed in HS&B and NLS-72. In the base year, students were selected through a two stage 

stratified probability sample, with schools as the first units and students within schools as the second stage 

units. 

In NLS-72, all base year sample members were spring term 1972 high school seniors. In HS&B, 

all members of the student sample were spring term 1980 sophomores or seniors. Because NELS:88 

began at eighth grade, its follow-ups encompass (like the HS&B sophomore cohort two years later [1982]) 

students (both in the modal grade progression sequence, and out of sequence) and dropouts. HS&B was 

designed to provide two separate cohorts--a representative sample of 1980 sophomores and a representative 

sample of 1980 seniors. NELS:88 is designed to provide a representative sample of 1988 eighth graders, 

a further representative sample of 1990 sophomores, and finally a representative sample of 1992 seniors. 

In the HS&B first follow-up, students were not added to the original sample (that is, the 1980 sophomore 

33 See, for example, the account by T.L. Hilton and J.M. Pollack on estimating postsecondary enrollment change over time 

using NLS-72 fourth follow-up (conducted over seven years after graduation) and HS&B third follow-up (conducted just less than 

six years after high school graduation) data, in Hilton (ed.) 1992. 

34 There are a number of special definitional issues in comparing NELS:88 and HS&B dropouts. For a detailed discussion 

of these issues, see Conducting Trend Analyses: HS&B and NELS:88 Dropouts, (Ingels and Dowd, National Center for Education 

Statistics, 1995). 

35 Specifically, out-of-sequence students (nonseniors) and nonstudents (such as dropouts and early graduates) must be removed 

from the HS&B analysis sample, and an adjustment made for the exclusion of students who were seniors in 1982 but were not part 

of the HS&B base year sampling frame, that is, 1982 seniors who were not 1980 sophomores in the U.S. A simplifying assumption 

here would be that in results and characteristics, these out-of-sequence 1982 seniors are essentially similar to the HS&B 1980 

sophomores who failed to progress in the modal grade sequence. 

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Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

cohort sample was not freshened in 1982 with seniors who had not been sophomores two years before and 

who therefore had no chance of selection into the HS&B Base Year sample). However, in NELS:88, 

owing to the desire to provide sample representativeness at three distinct points in time, new students can 

enter the study at tenth grade through two routes: sample freshening (addition of 1990 tenth graders who 

were not 1988 eighth graders or who were not in the United States in 1988) and change of eligibility 

status.36 

Thus, while the base year designs of the three studies were essentially similar, because an eighthgrade baseline was chosen for NELS:88 and a high school baseline for NLS-72 and HS&B, two further 

differences arise when one compares the NELS:88 follow-up rounds with the other studies: 

1) the more variable, typically smaller and unrepresentative within-school samples in 

NELS:88 first and second follow-up as contrasted to the more uniform, larger, and 

representative within-school student samples of HS&B37 and NLS-72 (see Table 4). 

2) the fact that, unlike HS&B in 1980, NLS-72 in 1972, or NELS:88 in 1988, NELS:88 

1990 and 1992 high schools do not constitute a probability sample of schools; 

In addition, despite the fundamental similarity of the base year designs, there were some 

differences in school and subgroup sampling and oversampling strategies across NLS-72, HS&B, and 

NELS:88.38 Such differences are documented in detail in the various sampling, technical, and 

comparative analysis reports (listed in the reference section of this appendix) associated with each study, 

and such differences have implications for intercohort analysis. For example, the NELS:88 sample of high 

schools lacks national generalizability; school-level contrasts should therefore not be drawn between 1972 

and 1980 high schools in NLS-72 and HS&B, on the one hand, and NELS:88, on the other. Likewise, 

subtle differences in stratification schemes limit comparisons that can be made. NELS:88 contains an 

Asian oversample, but HS&B and NLS-72 do not. NELS:88 contains a substantial oversample of nonCatholic private schools, a school type much more thinly represented in the other two studies. 

There are special considerations in comparing the NELS:88 and HS&B dropout and early graduate 

populations. In the NELS:88 second follow-up, dropouts who had obtained alternative credentials such 

as a GED were administered the student rather than the dropout questionnaire, along with the early 

graduate supplement--though classified as completers and appearing on the student data set in NELS:88, 

GED completers were not part of the student sampling frame for HS&B in 1980 or NLS-72, and therefore 

must be excluded from trend comparisons of seniors. (In HS&B’s first follow-up [1982] such sophomore 

36 For further information on sample freshening, see chapter 3 of the NELS:88 First Follow-up or Second Follow-up Student

Component User’s Manuals.

37 The HS&B 1980 sophomore and senior samples are fully in-school representative, but the HS&B sophomore 1982 (first

follow-up) sample is not, because transfers into the school had no chance of selection into the sample. 

38 An important additional difference, that may carry some consequences for comparability but will little affect analytic 

strategies, involves student sample replacement strategies. NLS-72, unlike HS&B and NELS:88, permitted replacement of 

noncooperating students under certain circumstances. While HS&B and NELS:88 made no attempt to replace students who refused 

to be part of the survey, HS&B did permit, but NELS:88 did not permit replacement of selected students who subsequently died, 

were discovered to have been listed in error, or who dropped out of school after selection but prior to the survey session. HS&B 

and NELS:88 also conducted a sample update to accommodate transfers into the Base Year schools between the sample selection 

and data collection phases of the studies. 

122 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

cohort alternative completers were administered the dropout questionnaire.) Questionnaire assignment in 

the two studies is summarized in Table 5. 

Use of appropriate subgroup membership flags permits the analyst to define dropouts in the same 

way in both HS&B and NELS:88; however, for respondents such as GED holders, some items that 

otherwise would be available cannot be compared because the dropout questionnaire was not administered 

to this group in NELS:88. On the other hand, NELS:88 GED recipients should be excluded from 

comparison with HS&B early graduates. It is also possible to manipulate HS&B data so that a non-HS&B 

dropout definition is used in which individuals in nondiploma alternative arrangements are not regarded 

as dropouts. (For details, see Ingels and Dowd, 1995.) 

Overall differences in cluster size are summarized in Table 4. For NLS-72, the target sample size 

was 18 students per school; for the HS&B base year, the target was 36 students per school; and for 

NELS:88, the target sample size was 24 eighth graders (or 26.2, counting the Asian-Hispanic oversample). 

Numbers selected and participating for the baseline and senior surveys of the three studies are summarized 

in Table 4. 

NLS-72, HS&B, NELS:88 Content Overlap. Content (and format) overlap across the three 

studies should be viewed in terms of questionnaire, cognitive test, and transcripts data. 

Questionnaire Overlap. There are many topics that are covered in one study but not the others, 

or that are covered by questions that are substantially (or subtly) different. Nonetheless, a core of items 

is comparable across all three, and a larger number of items comparable across HS&B and NELS:88.39 

Some items are repeated in identical form across the studies. Others appear to be essentially 

similar despite small differences in wording or response categories; analysts must exercise their own 

cautious judgments about such cases. For a number of items with like question wording, dissimilar 

response categories were employed. In many such cases, comparability can be achieved by recoding the 

response categories so that they are compatible. 

The crosswalk provided in Appendix E of the Second Follow-Up: Student Component Data File

User’s Manual identifies items that are plausibly similar across studies (or waves or components). Again, 

researchers must exercise their own cautious judgment before choosing comparison items. While most 

items listed in the crosswalk are transparently comparable (for example, the 10 life values items in NLS-72 

were repeated almost without change40 in stem or response categories in HS&B in 1980 and NELS:88 

in 1992), other items are more problematic for comparisons. It may be useful to illustrate this issue by 

providing a few examples of potentially problematic comparisons. 

The homework questions in NLS-72, HS&B, and NELS:88 provide one example of problematic 

comparability. NLS-72 asked "Approximately what is the average amount of time you spend on 

homework a week?" and provided response categories of "No homework is ever assigned, I have 

homework but don’t do it, less than 5 hours a week, between 5 and 10 hours a week, more than 10 hours 

a week." In HS&B the question stem was retained, and while additional response categories were 

39 For detailed discussions of item comparability issues for the 1980 and 1990 sophomore data, see Rasinski, Ingels, Rock, 

and Pollack, 1993; and Ingels, Scott, Lindmark, Frankel, and Myers, 1992, Appendix D. 

40 The one change in this series is represented by NELS:88 variable F2S40I which reads "Getting away from this community" 

whereas NLS-72 Base Year item BQ20I reads "Getting away from this area of the country," as does the HS&B item. 

123 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

provided, they can be mapped into the broader categories of the NLS-72. In the NELS:88 first and second

follow-ups, homework was inquired about using a two-column response format that distinguished in-school 

and out-of-school, and cut points were used for the response options that do not readily map into the NLS72 and HS&B scheme. It is possible to devise various schemes for trying to compare the NELS:88 

homework results with the earlier studies. Nevertheless, there is no objective criterion against which to 

evaluate the success of any such mapping. 

Future occupational expectations provide a second example of problematic comparability. There 

are items that ask about future occupational expectations in all three studies. Unlike the HS&B and 

NELS:88 items, the NLS-72 item is not keyed to a specific age and uses "like" instead of "plan or expect." 

Can the NLS-72 item be compared to NELS:88 nonetheless? Again, researchers must make their own 

judgments about comparability, and these judgments may depend in part on specific analytic objectives. 

For example, the NLS-72 questions would seem to license loftier or more wishful ambitions (the NLS-72 

wording is "circle the one number that goes with the best description of the kind of work you would like 

to do"; the NELS:88 wording is "which of the categories below comes closest to describing the job or 

occupation that you expect or plan to have...when you are 30 years old"). In comparing NLS-72 and 

NELS:88 seniors, one finds that females have higher future occupational expectations in 1992 than in 

1972. Since the wording of the NLS-72 item might be thought to minimize the large observed difference 

between women in the two cohorts, one might feel additional confidence that the trend toward higher 

female occupational expectations was real. Nonetheless, it remains possible to entertain at least some 

skepticism that these items are fully comparable, given that one instances aspirations and the other 

expectations, and that one is indefinite as to point in time and the other refers to age 30. Many more 

examples could be cited, but the larger point would remain the same--data users should assess carefully 

the comparison items listed in the crosswalk to ensure that they meet their analytic requirements. 

Cognitive Test Comparability. IRT methods have been used to put mathematics, vocabulary, and 

reading scores on the same scale for 1972, 1980, and 1982 seniors.41 Additionally, there are common 

items in the HS&B and NELS:88 mathematics tests that provide a basis for equating 1980-1990 and 1982-

1992 mathematics results. In general, however, the tests used in the three studies differ in many ways. 

Though group differences by standard deviation units may profitably be examined, caution should be 

exercised in drawing time-lag comparisons for cognitive test data. 

One particular caveat that should be entered concerns the NELS:88 mathematics and reading tests. 

NELS:88 used multiple, adaptive forms of these two tests, so that a broader range of ability could be 

measured. Due to such differences in methodology and item pool characteristics, subgroup differences 

(for example) that are detected by the NELS:88 math and reading tests may have a somewhat different 

meaning than differences registered in the earlier tests, and interpretation should be qualified accordingly. 

The HS&B sophomore cohort and NELS:88 provide a strong basis for explaining changes in high 

school achievement over time. Both studies measure how much was learned over the last two years of 

high school, and provide a wealth of individual-level explanatory variables. However, in comparing 

HS&B and NELS:88 test results, differences between the two cohorts may not always be typical of longer 

term trends. Hence, one might consider using the NAEP trend line (the NAEP trend sample is based on 

multiple age cohorts, and provides data from as early as 1969) to locate the HS&B and NELS:88 cohorts. 

(For further information about NAEP trend data in mathematics, science, and reading, see Mullis et al. 

1991 and 1994. Note also that for NELS:88 and NAEP 1992 mathematics achievement, NELS:88 

41 See Rock, Hilton, Pollack, Ekstrom and Goertz, 1985, for details. 

124 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

provides a NAEP-equated score. (For an analysis of NAEP trends, using NELS:88 and NLSY79 to 

examine family [and implicitly school] effects on achievement trends, see Grissmer et al. 1994). 

Transcript Comparability. The HS&B, NAEP (1987, 1990, 1994) and NELS:88 high school 

transcript studies were designed to support comparisons. Despite the large similarities between the four 

transcript studies, there are some differences in design and content that must be taken into account when 

planning comparative analyses. (For a detailed account, see Ingels and Taylor, 1995.) 

Certain generalizations may also be made about course enrollment trends based on data collected 

for 1969 public school graduates in the Study of Academic Growth and Prediction (Hilton, 1971; Tuma 

et al. 1989), and based on transcripts of 1975-82 high school graduates in the Department of Labor’s 

NLSY (CHRR, 1993). 

Weights, Flags, and Unweighted (Sample) Ns for Sophomore and Senior Cohort

Comparisons. Table 6 sketches the weights, flags, and sample Ns associated with sophomore and senior 

intercohort comparisons. 

Need for caution in comparing data across cohorts. Accurate trend measurement faces several 

challenges. Sampling error tends to be more of a problem for intercohort comparisons than for 

intracohort, because there is sampling error each time an independent sample is drawn. Differences in two 

sample means estimated from independent samples will be a function not only of the real differences in 

means, but also the sampling errors associated with both measurements. Hence, small (but not therefore 

necessarily unimportant) differences may be harder to detect. 

In estimating trends based on results from two or more sample surveys, a number of nonsampling 

errors also may arise. Differences in instrument format and wording, data collection mode, or 

methodology are potential sources of nonsampling error. While the requirements of change measurement 

dictate that the same measures be repeated in the same way, there are also strong disincentives to holding 

measures and methodologies constant. The goals, the subject, and the technology of education 

measurement do not remain static. The educational policy agenda changes over time; the manner and 

matter of education changes as curriculum content and instructional methods are revised; improvements 

arise--in survey methodologies, data capture technologies, and in measurement techniques--that promise 

large benefits if implemented. Finally, the instrument design process for NLS-72, HS&B, and NELS:88, 

which has proceeded through broad consensus of the user community at different points in time, militates 

against a strongly conservative approach to content, format, and methodology, and there is no correct or 

simple way to resolve all tensions between improved measurement and comparable measurement. 

Hence, though the studies were designed to be as comparable as possible, caution must nonetheless 

be exercised in comparing NLS-72, HS&B, and NELS:88 data. Student response rates differed and the 

characteristics of the nonrespondents may also differ across the studies. While nonresponse adjustments 

in the weights serve to compensate for nonresponse, no adjustment procedure can do so perfectly. Item 

response rates for questions that appear in both surveys differ as well, and, in general, missing data have 

not been imputed. The accuracy of intercohort comparisons may also be influenced by differences in 

context and question order for trend items in the various student questionnaires; differences in test format, 

content, and context; and other factors such as differences in data collection methodology. 

More specifically, there were differences in mode and time of survey administration across the 

four cohorts. For example, NELS:88 seniors were generally surveyed earlier in the school year than were 

125 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

NLS-72 seniors (many NELS:88 seniors were surveyed in January and February of 1992, though survey 

work continued into May); NLS-72 Base Year seniors were surveyed quite late in the school year.42 

NLS-72 survey forms were administered by school personnel; HS&B and NELS:88 survey forms 

were administered primarily by contractor (NORC) staff. In NLS-72, seniors marked answers on an 

answer sheet (separate from the test booklet) while in 1980 and 1982 (HS&B) and NELS:88, answers were 

marked in the test booklet. The inclusion of answers as an integral part of the test booklet is thought to 

have given a modest advantage to HS&B test takers (see Rock, Hilton, Pollack, Ekstrom, & Goertz, 1985, 

for further details). Other differences between the NLS-72 and the HS&B/NELS:88 tests include 

improved mapping in the latter tests and the procedure of blackening an oval versus blackening a box 

(Hilton, 1992, cites a study by Earles, Guiliano, Ree & Valentine, that indicates such format differences 

are significant for timed tests, accounting for about one half a standard deviation in difference of 

result).43 

There are differences in questionnaire construction across the three studies. NLS-72 and NELS:88 

senior questionnaires used skip patterns more extensively than did the HS&B senior instrument; the 

NELS:88 and HS&B questionnaires were longer than the NLS-72 questionnaire. 

NLS-72 and HS&B senior cohort sample members were subjected to their first measurement as 

seniors; HS&B sophomores were administered their second measurement as seniors, and NELS:88 eighth 

graders their third. We do not believe that problems associated with repeated measurements (such as 

remembering past responses to individual items) are likely to be a difficulty, both because of the sheer 

number of test and questionnaire items asked, and the two year intervals between data collections. 

However, participation in a longitudinal study in theory may influence the survey member’s subsequent 

behavior or attitudes. Because most NELS:88 1992 sample members had also been surveyed as eighth 

and tenth graders, such "panel effects"44 are in principle possible with this group (as with HS&B 

sophomores two years later, in 1982). In contrast, 1972 and 1980 seniors (and 1980 sophomores) were 

new to NLS-72 or HS&B. 

Any of these differences may, to some unknown extent, affect the comparability of the NELS data 

sets and make the task of accurate trend measurement more difficult to accomplish. 

42 Indeed, while in the spring 1972 base year 16,683 seniors in 1,061 schools completed an NLS-72 student questionnaire, 

257 schools that could not (because, for example, their school year ended earlier in the spring) take part in the base year were added, 

in accordance with the original design--these seniors had now left their schools but they were asked some retrospective (senior year) 

questions. Such individuals--who redress the school frame undercoverage bias in the NLS-72 base year--do not appear on the NLS72 base year files that would typically be employed for comparisons of high school seniors, although the presence of some 

retrospective data for these individuals permits refinement of comparisons grounded in 1972 data. 

43 The implications of context and format differences for trend comparisons have been well described in the NAEP literature--

see especially A.E. Beaton and R. Zwick, 1990, The Effect of Changes in the National Assessment: Disentangling the NAEP 1985-86

Reading Anomaly (Princeton, N.J.: ETS, NAEP Report 17-TR-21), which discusses the effects of changes in item context, 

assessment booklets, and procedures. For some NAEP reading tests, the impact of such changes was apparently larger than the trend 

effects that were being measured. 

44 Discussions of longitudinal conditioning or panel effects (also known as "time in sample bias" or "panel conditioning")--for 

example, whether strong effects potentially exist or could affect data quality--may be found in Kasprzyk, D., Duncan, G., Kalton, 

G., & Singh, M.P., eds. Panel Surveys, 1989 (New York: Wiley). See especially contributions by B. Bailar; D. Cantor; D. Holt; 

A. Silberstein and C. Jacobs; L. Corder and D. Horvitz; and J. Waterton and D. Lievesley. 

126 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 4: Baseline and Senior Year Student Average Cluster Sizes (N sampled and N participating),

NLS-72, HS&B, NELS:88

Base Year

Average Cluster Size

Senior

Average Cluster Size

Senior Sample

Representative

N

Sampled

N

Partic.

N

Sampled

N

Partic.

of

Seniors

of

School

NLS-72 17.9 15.7 17.9 15.7 Yes Yes 

HS&B Sr. 

Cohort 34.9 27.8 34.9 27.8 Yes Yes 

HS&B So. 

Cohort 35.2 29.6 25.4 24.3 No No 

NELS:88 25.1 23.4 11.4 11.0 Yes No 

Notes: NLS-72 statistics are based on 1,061 participating Base Year schools, a student sample of 19,001, with student participation 

defined as completion of the student questionnaire (there were 16,683 questionnaire completers); see Riccobono, 

Henderson, Burkheimer, Place & Levinsohn, 1981, p.21. HS&B statistics reflect 1,015 participating Base Year schools; 

a base year sample of 34,981 seniors, of whom 28,240 participated; and a sophomore sample of 35,723, of whom 30,030 

participated. In the HS&B first follow-up, the sophomore cohort was subsampled, with most base year nonparticipants 

removed from the sample. Hence 29,737 sample members were retained, of whom 25,150 were enrolled in 992 HS&B 

schools; 96 percent of these 25,150 students participated in the HS&B first follow-up. (The remaining 4,587 sample 

members were surveyed as dropouts, transfers out, or early graduates.) There was also some attrition, due to mergers and 

closings, in the school sample (975 base year schools remained in the school sample; additionally, 17 schools that had 

received pools of base year sample members were included in data collection activities). The 1982 cluster size reported 

for HS&B in the table above includes seniors and nonseniors because the sophomore cohort in 1982 did not constitute a 

nationally representative senior sample. NELS:88 second follow-up (1992) statistics are based on sample members who 

were in the 12th grade in the spring term of the 1991-92 school year in the contextual sample of schools. There were 

15,643 seniors in 1,374 such schools, as well as an additional 378 nonseniors. NELS:88 Base Year statistics reflect 1,052 

participating schools, an eighth grade sample of 26,432, of whom 24,599 participated. The NELS:88 senior sample in the 

table above is spring-based and therefore excludes early graduates, who should not be included in senior year trend 

comparisons with NLS-72 and HS&B (though of course the HS&B and NELS:88 early graduate cohorts can themselves 

be compared). 

127 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 5: Questionnaire Assignment in HS&B and NELS:88 Second Follow-Up

HS&B (1982) Questionnaire NELS:88 (1992) Questionnaire

enrolled in high 

school 

student enrolled in high school student 

graduated early 

student 

(including early grad 

supplement) 

graduated early or 

have already received 

GED 

student 

(including early grad 

supplement) 

not enrolled in HS, 

but enrolled in GED 

preparation classes or 

other special program 

or have received GED 

dropout 

not enrolled in HS, 

but enrolled in GED 

preparation classes or 

other special program, 

but have not received 

GED or equivalent 

dropout 

dropout (haven’t 

attended school for 20 

consecutive days or 

more 

dropout 

dropout (haven’t 

attended school for 20 

consecutive days or 

more) 

dropout 

128 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Table 6: Sophomore and Senior Comparisons

Sample N

Weight

Flag

Sophomores

1980 Sophomores

HS&B

30,030* 

DESIGNWT 

--

1990 Sophomores

NELS:88

17,544** 

F1QWT 

F1SEQFLG = 0 

* HS&B base year participants on base year data files; postsecondary files reflect a base year subsample. Unweighted sample N 

for retained sophomores in postsecondary rounds who participated in 1980 = 14,102 (participation flag BYPART = 1, weight 

= BYWT). 

** This N represents sophomore cohort cases (participants) delivered in the first follow-up. In the second follow-up, 1990 

sophomores who were ineligible in the base year but deemed eligible for the first follow-up were added for a new total of 17,754 

1990-participating sophomore cohort members. 

Sample N

Weight

Flag

Seniors

1972 Seniors 1980 Seniors

NLS-72 HS&B

16,683 28,240* 

W1 DESIGNWT 

-- --

1992 Seniors

NELS:88

16,114** 

F2QWT 

F2SEQFLG = 0 

* HS&B base year participants on base year data files; postsecondary files reflect a base year subsample. Unweighted sample N 

for retained seniors in postsecondary rounds who participated in 1980 = 11,500, (participation flag BYPART = 1, weight = 

BYWT). 

** This number excludes NELS:88 early graduates. Case N is for the public use file; there are 16,120 participants on the privileged 

use file. 

129 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

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Longitudinal Study: Base Year (1972) Through Fourth Follow-Up (1979) Data File User’s

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Williams, S.R., and Folsom, R.E. 1977. Bias Resulting from School Nonresponse: Methodology and

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Rock, D.A.; Hilton, T.L.; Pollack, J.M.; Ekstrom, R.B.; Goertz, M.E. 1985. Psychometric Analysis of

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West, J.; Diodato, L.; Sandberg, N. 1984. A Trend Study of High School Offerings and Enrollments:

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NELS:88

Ingels, S.J.; Abraham, S.Y.; Karr, R.; Spencer, B.D.; and Frankel, M.R. 1990. NELS:88 Base Year

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132 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Appendix D:

Methodology Used in Report

133 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Appendix D. Methodology Used in Report

Sample Used for Analysis

The analysis of NELS:88 in this paper was based on data from the cross-section of 1992 seniors, 

which comprises 16,114 cases. Data from the base-year senior cohort of HS&B 1980 were used, which 

includes 28,240 cases. Data for 1972 seniors were taken from the NLS-72 base year, which had a base 

year sample size of 16,683. All analyses using variables taken from the NELS:88 student questionnaire 

were conducted using F2QWT. Analyses of the HS&B data were conducted using DESIGNWT. 

Analyses using variables from NLS-72 used W1. 

Statistical Procedures

Comparisons that have been tested for statistical significance to ensure that the differences are 

larger than those that might be expected due to sampling variation. The statistical comparisons in this 

report were generally based on the t statistic. Whether the statistical test is considered significant or not 

is determined by calculating a t value for the difference between a pair of means or proportions and 

comparing this value to published tables of values at certain critical levels, called "alpha levels." The alpha 

level is an a priori statement of the probability that a difference exists in fact rather than by chance. 

To guard against errors of inference based upon multiple comparisons, the Bonferroni procedure45 

was used to adjust significance tests for multiple contrasts. This method corrects the significance (or 

alpha) level for the total number of contrasts made with a particular classification variable. For each 

classification variable, there are (K*[K-1])/2 possible contrasts (or nonredundant pairwise comparisons), 

where K is the number of categories. For example, if a classification variable such as race has five 

categories, K=5 and there are (5*4)/2=10 possible comparisons between the categories. The Bonferroni 

procedure divides the alpha-level for a single t-test (in this case, 0.05) by the number of possible pairwise 

comparisons (10) to derive a new alpha corrected for the fact that multiple contrasts are being made. In 

Tables 1-3, the Bonferroni procedure is used to adjust for the number of comparisons being made within 

a single table. 

The t statistic between estimates from various subgroups presented in the tables can be computed 

by using the following formula: 

where X1 and X2 are the estimates to be compared and SE1 and SE2 are their corresponding standard 

errors. 

45 For detailed discussion, see, for example, Hays, W.L. (1988), Statistics. (4th ed.) New York: Holt, Rinehart, Winston. 

134 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

For comparisons involving tested achievement, the chi-squared statistic was used to compare 

"effect sizes" or standardized differences between tests scores for various subgroups as follows46 

where 

effect size = 

M1, M2 are the means of the scores from the two groups being compared 

N = n1 + n2 

and SDpooled =

Standard errors for all tables are included in Appendix B. All standard errors have been 

calculated using a Taylor series approximation to adjust for the effects of the complex survey design. 

CTAB and SUDAAN programs were used to calculate these estimates. Because NELS:88 sampling 

employed a multi-stage stratified cluster design, the adjusted standard errors are generally higher than 

those that would be calculated using normal simple random sampling assumptions. 

Nonresponse Bias Analysis

Comparisons were made between subgroups defined on the basis of whether the respondent had 

complete data for the achievement tests used in this report. The results are shown in Tables D.1 - D.3, 

below. A case was classified as "valid" if the respondent had scores for mathematics, reading, and the 

composite achievement measures; case were classified as "missing" if any one of these scores was missing. 

The distribution of valid and missing cases was broken down by sex, race/ethnicity, and 

socioeconomic status. In 1972 and 1992, there were no statistically significant differences between these 

subgroups for any of the sex, race, or SES categories. However, in 1980, males had a significantly higher 

proportion in the missing group. This could have the effect of making the observed sex differences appear 

smaller than they actually were in 1980. 

The proportion of missing cases was also significantly higher for blacks and for Hispanics, and 

significantly lower for whites, indicating that the former two groups may be underrepresented in the 

proficiency analyses for 1980. 

Finally, the middle SES group may have been somewhat overrepresented, but since all of the 

analyses on SES in this report compare the high-SES group to the low-SES group, this should have no 

impact on the conclusions drawn with regard to socioeconomic status. 

46 A chi-squared test for the homogeneity of effect sizes, developed by L. Hedges for use in meta-analysis, was used to test the 

difference among the effect sizes. For details, see Wolf, F.M. (1988) Meta-Analysis: Quantitative Methods for Research Synthesis. 

Beverly Hills, CA: Sage. 

135 
Table D.1

Percent of Respondents

(Standard Errors) with "Valid" or

"Missing" Achievement Test Scores in 1972

Total Male Female Black White Asian Hispanic

Low

SES

Valid 95.6 50.0 50.0 8.4 86.2 0.9 3.4 24.2 

(SE) (0.64) (0.58) (0.58) (0.43) (0.50) (0.11) (0.29) (0.48

Missing 4.4 47.1 52.9 15.2 77.0 1.4 5.6 29.9 

(SE) (0.64) (3.03) (3.03) (3.39) (3.75) (0.64) (1.43) (2.72

Valid & Missing 100.0 49.9 50.1 8.7 85.8 0.9 3.5 24.5 (SE) (0.59) (0.59) (0.43) (0.49) (0.11) (0.28) (0.47

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education L

Follow-up, 1992. 
Table D.2

Percent of Respondents

(Standard Errors) with "Valid" or

"Missing" Achievement Test Scores in 1980

Total Male Female Black White Asian Hispanic

Low

SES

Valid 86.8 47.4 52.6 10.9 81.2 1.3 5.9 27.1 

(SE) (0.69) (0.55) (0.58) (0.68) (0.78) (0.16) (0.28) (0.66

Missing 13.2 53.2 46.8 16.6 71.7 1.7 9.5 29.9 

(SE) (0.69) (1.39) (1.39) (1.57) (1.91) (0.43) (1.15) (1.39

Valid & Missing 100.0 48.1 51.9 11.7 79.9 1.3 6.3 27.4 

(SE) (0.52) (0.52) (0.70) (0.80) (0.16) (0.31) (0.65

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education L

Follow-up, 1992. 
Table D.3

Percent of Respondents

(Standard Errors) with "Valid" or

"Missing" Achievement Test Scores in 1992

Total Male Female Black White Asian Hispanic

Low

SES

Valid 77.4 51.0 49.0 11.5 73.5 4.4 9.7 25.0 

(SE) (0.74) (0.66) (0.66) (0.77) (1.08) (0.33) (0.73) (0.77

Missing 22.6 48.3 51.7 13.2 69.8 4.8 11.2 23.0 

(SE) (0.74) (1.40) (1.40) (1.57) (1.89) (0.51) (1.00) (1.30

Valid & Missing 100.0 50.4 49.6 11.9 72.7 4.5 10.0 24.6 

(SE) (0.61) (0.61) (0.78) (1.08) (0.31) (0.69) (0.72

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Longitudinal Study of 1972; High School and Beyond, 1980 Senior Cohort; National Education L

Follow-up, 1992. 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Description of Variables Used in this Report

Classification Variables. Classification variables such as sex, race/ethnicity, region, type of school, and 

others listed below were used to define subgroups for comparison throughout this report. Except as 

specified below, these were taken directly from the student data file for the particular study; the variable 

names from those files are indicated following the descriptive variable names used in this report. 

SEX: NLS (1972): VAR1626. 

HS&B(1980): BB083. 

NELS(1992): F2SEX. 

HIGH SCHOOL

PROGRAM: NLS-72 (1972): VAR1073. 

HS&B(1980): BB002, grouping codes 3 through 9 into a single "vocational" 

category (code 3). 

NELS(1992): F2S12A, combining codes 1, 13, and 15 to form code 1=general; 

combining codes 2 and 12 to form code 2=college preparatory; 

and combining codes 3 through 11 to form code 3=vocational. 

RACE/ETHNICITY: NLS-72 (1972): VAR1625, combining codes 3, 4, and 5 into a single "Hispanic" 

category. 

HS&B (1980): Respondents were classified into racial/ethnic groups based on 

variable BB089 (eliminating code 5), unless variable BB090 was 

coded 1 to 4, in which case the respondent was classified as 

Hispanic. 

NELS (1992): F2RACE1. 

In all three cohorts, the category "American Indian or Alaskan Native" was included for the purposes of 

computing percentages, but was omitted from the tables in this report due to inadequate sample size. 

Race-ethnicity estimates are approximations and were not adjusted in HS&B or NELS:88 to conform to 

an external source. Age cohort data are readily available for all major race/ethnicity classifications, but 

owing to differential dropout rates, proportions of seniors are less certain. NELS:88 estimates may be 

slightly high for Asians and low for blacks. 

REGION: NLS-72 (1972): VAR1066. 

HS&B(1980): CENRGN, combining codes 1 and 2 to form code 1=Northeast; 

combining codes 6 and 7 to form code 2=North Central 

(Midwest); combining codes 2, 4, and 5 to form code 3=South; 

and combining codes 8 and 9 to form code 4=West. 

NELS(1992): G12REGON. 

139 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS: Socioeconomic Status was coded as quartiles based on the variable 

F2SES1. F2SES1 was constructed using base year parent data, when available. The following parent data 

were used: Father’s education level, mother’s education level, father’s occupation, mother’s occupation, 

and family income (data coming from BYP30, BYP31, BYP34B, BY37B, and BYP80. Education-level 

data were recoded according to the definition of BYPARED (with the exception of category "7", which 

was recoded as missing for F2SES1 calculations.) Occupational data were recoded using the Duncan SEI, 

as used in NLS 72, HS&B, and earlier rounds of NELS:88. Parent data were used to construct F2SES1 

if at least one component was not missing. SES quartiles were redrawn for this analysis, to reflect the 

seniors-only portion of the 1992 NELS:88 sample. Socioeconomic Status was then recoded, with the two 

middle quartiles combined into a single "medium" category, based on the following variables. 

NLS-72 (1972): VAR1070. 

HS&B (1980): BBSES. 

NELS (1992): F2SES1 was recoded into quartiles based on 1992 seniors only. 

TEST SCORES (Reading and Mathematics): For NLS-72 and HS&B, the IRT Scaled Reading and 

Mathematics Formula Scores were used as reported in Tables 5-2 and 5-3 of Rock, D. A., et al. (1985), 

Factors Associated with Decline of Test Scores of High School Seniors, 1972 to 1980; Washington, D.C.: 

National Center for Education Statistics (CS 85-217). For NELS:88, variables F22XRIRR (Reading IRT 

Estimated Number Right) and F22XMIRR (Mathematics IRT Estimated Number Right) were used. 

Reliabilities for the reading and math tests were as follows: 

Study Reading Math

1972 (NLS-72) .79 .86 

1980 (HS&B Sr) .79 .85 

1992 (NELS:88) .85 .94 

(For further documentation of the NLS-72 and HS&B tests, see D.A. Rock et al., Psychometric Analysis

of the NLS and the High School and Beyond Test Batteries, NCES 1985. For further documentation of 

the NELS:88 tests, see D.A. Rock and J.M. Pollack, Psychometric Report for the NELS:88 Base Year

Through Second Follow-Up, NCES 1994. For caveats concerning trend comparisons of test results, see 

Appendix C of this report.) 

TEST QUARTILE: Respondents were classified into quartiles based on a composite (average) of their 

scores on tests of reading and mathematics achievement, with the two middle quartiles combined into a 

single category, based on the following variables. 

NLS-72 (1972): VAR0618 (Reading), VAR0620 (Mathematics). 

HS&B (1980): EBREADSD (Reading), EBMTH1SD (Mathematics). 

NELS (1992): F22XQURT (Composite Test Quartile). 

Response Variables: The following variables represent the student’s responses to various questionnaire 

items reported in the Student Component File for each study. 

FACTORS CONSIDERED IMPORTANT WHEN CHOOSING A COLLEGE: The percentage 

estimates and standard errors in this report were calculated by generating two groups, those responding 

"very important" and those choosing any of the other valid responses for the following items. 

140 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

How important is or was each of the following in

choosing a school you would like to attend?

NLS-72 HS&B NELS

VAR0561 EB116A College expenses (tuition, books, room and board). 

F2S59A: Low expenses (tuition, books, room and board). 

VAR0562 EB116B F2S59B: Availability of financial aid such as a school loan, scholarship 

or grant. 

VAR0563 Availability of specific courses or curriculums. 

EB116C F2S59C: Availability of specific courses or curriculum. 

VAR0564 EB116D Reputation of the college in academic areas. 

F2S59L: Strong reputation of the school’s academic programs. 

VAR0565 EB116E Reputation of the college in athletic programs. 

F2S59D: Strong reputation of the school’s athletic programs. 

VAR0571 EB116G Able to live at home and attend the college. 

F2S59F: Ability to attend school while living at home. 

HIGHEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION RESPONDENT EXPECTS TO ATTAIN: The following 

variables were used to indicate the highest level of education expected by the respondent: 

NLS-72: VAR0383, combining codes 1 and 2 into a single category indicating high school diploma or 

less; and combining codes 3 and 4 into a single category indicating some college work, but 

less than a 4-year degree. 

HS&B: BB065, combining codes 1 and 2 into a single category indicating a high school diploma or 

less; combining codes 3 through 6 into a single category indicating some college work, but 

less than a 4-year degree; and combining codes 8 and 9 into a single category indicating a 

graduate/professional degree. 

NELS: F2S43, combining codes 1 and 2 into a single category indicating a high school diploma or 

less; combining codes 3 through 7 into a single category indicating some college work, but 

less than a 4-year degree; and combining codes 9 and 10 into a single category indicating a 

graduate/professional degree. 

MAJOR FIELD OF STUDY:

NLS-72 (1972): VAR0574. 

HS&B(1980): BB120, combining codes 13 and 14 into a single "Health" category; and combining 

codes 22 and 23 into a single "Social Science" category. 

NELS(1992): F2S62, combining codes 21 and 22 into a single "Social Science" category. 

141 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

OCCUPATION RESPONDENT EXPECTS TO HAVE:

NLS-72: VAR0367 

HS&B: BB062, combining codes 9, 10, and 14 into a single category of professional positions. 

NELS: F2S64B, combining codes 9, 10, and 14 into a single category of professional positions. 

PARTICIPATION IN EXTRACURRICULAR ACTIVITIES: The following items were used to 

classify respondents into two groups, participants and nonparticipants. Respondents were classified as 

participants if they indicated "active participation" (code 2 for NLS-72 and HS&B; code 3 for NELS) or 

"participation as a leader" (code 3 for NLS-72 and HS&B; code 4 for NELS). If more than one item is 

listed, participation for any of the items was treated as participation in the general category of activity: 

Debating, Drama, Music: NLS-72: VAR0243 

HS&B: BB032D, BB032E, BB032F 

NELS: F2S30BA, F2S30BB 

Student Government: NLS-72: VAR0248 

HS&B: EB032K 

NELS: F2S30BC 

Honorary Clubs: NLS-72: VAR0245 

HS&B: EB032H 

NELS: F2S30BD 

School Newspaper/ 

Yearbook: NLS-72: VAR0246 

HS&B: EB032I 

NELS: F2S30BE 

Subject Matter Clubs: NLS-72: VAR0247 

HS&B: BB032J 

NELS: F2S30BG 

Hobby Clubs: NLS-72: VAR0244 

HS&B: BB032G 

NELS: F2S30BH 

Vocational Ed. Clubs: NLS-72: VAR0249 

HS&B: BB032L 

NELS: F2S30BI 

Cheerleading: NLS-72: VAR0242 

HS&B: BB032C 

NELS: F2S30AC 

142 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Team Sports: NLS-72: VAR0241 

HS&B: EB032A, EB032B 

NELS: F2S30AA, F2S30AB, F2S30AC, F2S30BJ, F2S30BK 

(Note: The NELS variables for Team Sports and Cheerleading have a different set of codes than the other 

extracurricular activities. For these variables, codes 3 through 5 on any of the listed variables 

were classified into the participant group.) 

PLANS TO ATTEND COLLEGE/VOCATIONAL SCHOOL NEXT YEAR: For NLS-72, VAR0385 

was used, with the codes indicating plans for nonacademic pursuits immediately after high school (codes 

1 through 4, 9, and 10) combined into a single category. The same was done for HS&B, using variable 

BB071. 

For NELS, if the response to F2S49 indicated that the respondent planned to continue in school 

immediately following high school (code 1), then "Plans for Next Year" was coded using F2S61. An 

additional category was generated, indicating that the respondent did not plan to attend school the next 

year (as indicated by code 2 or 9 on F2S49). Responses of code 3 on F2S49 were coded as missing for 

this variable. 

PLANS TO WORK NEXT YEAR: Respondents were classified into two groups: those who planned 

to work full time (NLS-72 VAR0385 codes 1, 2, or 3; HS&B BB071 codes 1, 2, or 3; NELS F2S51 code 

1 or F2S51 code 9 in combination with F2S48A code 2 or 3); and those who did not plan to work full 

time the next year (NLS-72 VAR0385 codes 4 through 10, HS&B BB071 codes 4 through 10, NELS 

F2S51 code 2 or F2S51 code 9 in combination with F2S49 code 1). 

VALUES: The percentage estimates and standard errors in this report were calculated by generating two 

groups, those responding "very important" and those choosing any of the other valid responses for the 

following items. 

How important is each of the following to you in your life?:

NLS-72 HS&B NELS

VAR0313 BB057A F2S40A: Being successful in my line of work. 

VAR0314 BB057B F2S40B: Finding the right person to marry and having a happy family life. 

VAR0315 BB057C F2S40C: Having lots of money. 

VAR0316 BB057D F2S40D: Having strong friendships. 

VAR0317 BB057E F2S40E: Being able to find steady work. 

VAR0319 BB057G F2S40G: Being able to give my children better opportunities than I’ve had. 

VAR0320 BB057H F2S40H: Living close to parents and relatives. 

VAR0322 BB057J F2S40J: Working to correct social and economic inequalities. 

143 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Appendix E:

Publications Using NELS:88 Data

144 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

APPENDIX E

NELS:88 Key Technical Documentation: Listing;

NELS:88 Analysis Reports, Tabulations and Statistical Briefs: 

Listing and Content Abstract

LISTING OF KEY TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION AVAILABLE FROM NCES 

Ingels, S.J., Abraham, S., Rasinski, K.A., Karr, R., Spencer, B.D., and Frankel, M.R. NELS:88 Base Year

Data File User’s Manuals, 1990: 

1988 Student Component: NCES 90-464; 

1988 Parent Component: NCES 90-466; 

1988 School Component: NCES 90-482; 

1988 Teacher Component: NCES 90-484. 

Spencer, B.D., Frankel, M.R., Ingels, S.J., Rasinski, K.A., and Tourangeau, R. NELS:88 Base Year

Sample Design Report, 1990; NCES 90-463. 

Rock, D.A., and Pollack, J.M. Psychometric Report for the NELS:88 Base Year Test Battery, 1991; 

NCES 91-468. 

Ingels, S.J., Scott, L.A., Lindmark, J.T., Frankel, M.R., and Myers, S.L. NELS:88 First Follow-Up Data

File User’s Manuals, 1992: 

1990 Student Component: NCES 92-030; 

1990 School Component: NCES 92-084; 

1990 Dropout Component: NCES 92-083; 

1990 Teacher Component: NCES 92-085. 

Ingels, S.J., Scott, L.A., Rock, D.A., Pollack, J.M., Rasinski, K.A. NELS:88 First Follow-Up Final

Technical Report, 1994; Washington, D.C.: NCES 94-632. 

Ingels, S.J., Dowd, K.L., Baldridge, J.D., Stipe, J.L., Bartot, V.H., Frankel, M.R. NELS:88 Second

Follow-Up (1992): Student Component Data File User’s Manual, 1994; NCES 93-374. 

Ingels, S.J., Dowd, K.L., Stipe, J.L., Baldridge, J.D., Bartot, V.H., Frankel, M.R. NELS:88 Second

Follow-Up (1992): Dropout Component Data File User’s Manual, 1994; NCES 93-375. 

Ingels, S.J., Thalji, L., Pulliam, P., Bartot, V.H., Frankel, M.R. NELS:88 Second Follow-Up (1992):

Parent Component Data File User’s Manual, 1994; NCES 94-378. 

Ingels, S.J., Thalji, L., Pulliam, P., Bartot, V.H., Frankel, M.R. NELS:88 Second Follow-Up (1992):

Teacher Component Data File User’s Manual, 1994; NCES 94-379. 

Ingels, S.J., Thalji, L., Pulliam, P., Bartot, V.H., Frankel, M.R. NELS:88 Second Follow-Up (1992):

School Component Data File User’s Manual, 1994; NCES 94-376. 

145 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

Ingels, S.J., Dowd, K.L., Taylor, J.R., Bartot, V.H., Frankel, M.R. NELS:88 Second Follow-Up (1992):

Transcript Component Data File User’s Manual, 1995; NCES 94-377. 

Ingels, S.J., and Dowd, K.L. Conducting Trend Analyses: HS&B and NELS:88 Sophomore Cohort

Dropouts, 1995; Washington, D.C.: NCES Working Paper Series, 95-07. 

Ingels, S.J., and Baldridge, J.B. Conducting Trend Analyses: NLS-72, HS&B, and NELS:88 Seniors, 

1995; Washington, D.C.: NCES Working Paper Series, 95-05. 

Ingels, S.J., and Taylor, J.R. Conducting Cross-Cohort Comparisons Using HS&B, NAEP, and NELS:88

Academic Transcript Data, 1995; Washington, D.C.: NCES Working Paper Series, 95-06. 

Ingels, S.J., and Dowd, K.L. NELS:88 Second Follow-Up Questionnaire Content Areas and Research

Issues, 1995, Washington, D.C.: NCES Working Paper Series, 95-04. 

Rock, D.A., and Pollack, J.M. NELS:88 Base Year through Second Follow-Up Psychometric Report, 

forthcoming, 1995; Washington, D.C.: NCES 94-382. 

Ingels, S.J. Sample Exclusion and Undercoverage in NELS:88: Characteristics of Base Year Ineligible

Students; Changes in Eligibility Status after Four Years, 1995; Washington, D.C.: NCES 95-723. 

NELS:88 Base Year Through Second Follow-Up Sample Design Report, forthcoming, 1995 Washington, 

D.C.: NCES 94-250. 

146 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

LISTING OF ANALYTIC PUBLICATIONS

1. Hafner, A., Ingels, S.J., Schneider, B., and Stevenson, D.L. A Profile of the American Eighth Grader, 

1990; NCES 90-458. 

2. Rasinski, K.A., and West, J. NELS:88: Eighth Graders’ Reports of Courses Taken During the 1988

Academic Year by Selected Student Characteristics, 1990; NCES 90-459. 

3. Hoachlander, E.G. A Profile of Schools Attended by Eighth Graders in 1988, 1991; NCES 91-129. 

4. Rock, D.A., Pollack, J.M., and Hafner, A. The Tested Achievement of the National Education

Longitudinal Study of 1988 Eighth-Grade Class, 1991; NCES 91-460. 

5. Kaufman, P., and Rasinski, K.A. Quality of Responses of Eighth-Grade Students to the NELS:88 Base

Year Questionnaire, 1991; NCES 91-487. 

6. McMillen, M. Eighth to Tenth Grade Dropouts, 1992; Statistics in Brief series, NCES 92-006. 

7. Owings, J.A., and Peng, S. Transitions Experienced by 1988 Eighth Graders, 1992. NCES 92-023. 

8. Kaufman, P., and Bradby, D. Characteristics of At-Risk Students in NELS:88, 1992; NCES 92-042. 

9. Bradby, D. Language Characteristics and Academic Achievement: A Look at Asian and Hispanic

Eighth Graders in NELS:88, 1992; NCES 92-479. 

10. Horn, L., and Hafner, A. A Profile of American Eighth-Grade Mathematics and Science Instruction, 

1992; NCES 92-486. 

11. Horn, L., and West, J. A Profile of Parents of Eighth Graders, 1992; NCES 92-488. 

12. Green, P.J. High School Seniors Look to the Future, 1972 and 1992, 1993; Statistics in Brief series, 

NCES 93-473. 

13. McMillen, M., Hausken, E., Kaufman, P., Ingels, S., Dowd, K., Frankel, M. and Qian, J. Dropping

Out of School: 1982 and 1992, Issue Brief series, 1993; NCES 93-901. 

14. Rasinski, K.A., Ingels, S.J., Rock, D.A., and Pollack, J. America’s High School Sophomores: A Ten

Year Comparison, 1980 - 1990, 1993; NCES 93-087. 

15. Rock, D.A., Owings, J.A., and Lee, R. Changes in Math Proficiency Between Eighth and Tenth

Grades. Statistics in Brief series, 1994, NCES 93-455. 

16. Finn, J.D. School Engagement and Students At Risk. 1993; NCES 93-470. 

17. Rasinski, K.A. The Effect of High School Vocational Education on Academic Achievement Gain and

High School Persistence: Evidence from NELS:88, 1994; Report to the Office of Research, U.S. 

Department of Education. 

147 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

18. Ingels, S.J., Schneider, B., Scott, L.A. and Plank, S.B. A Profile of the American High School

Sophomore in 1990, NCES, 1994; NCES 95-086. 

19. Myers, D., and Heiser, N. Students’ School Transition Patterns between Eighth and Tenth Grades

Based on NELS:88, forthcoming 1994; NCES 94-137. 

20. Green, P.J., Dugoni, B.L., Ingels, S.J., and Camburn, E. A Profile of the American High School

Senior in 1992, NCES, 1995; NCES 95-384. 

21. Scott, L.A., Rock, D.A., Pollack, J.M., and Ingels, S.J. Two Years Later: Cognitive Gains and School

Transitions of NELS:88 Eighth Graders, 1995, NCES 94-436. 

22. Green, P.J., Dugoni, B.L., and Ingels, S.J. Trends Among High School Seniors, 1972 - 1992. NCES, 

1995; NCES 95-380. 

23. Hoffer, T. High School Seniors’ Instructional Experiences in Science and Mathematics. forthcoming, 

1995. 

24. Green, P.J., and Scott, L.A. "At-Risk" Eighth Graders Four Years Later, NCES, 1995; NCES 95-736. 

25. Rock, D.A., and Pollack, J.M. Mathematics Course Taking and Gains in Mathematics Achievement. 

NCES, 1995; NCES 95-714. 

26. Hoffer, T.B., Rasinski, K.A., and Moore, W. Social Background Differences in High School

Mathematics and Science Coursetaking and Achievement. NCES, 1995; NCES 95-206. 

148 
Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

ABSTRACTS47 OF ANALYTIC PUBLICATIONS

1. Hafner, A., Ingels, S.J., Schneider, B., and Stevenson, D.L. A Profile of the American Eighth Grader, 

1990; NCES 90-458. 

Descriptive statistics and associated analysis on American eighth graders are presented based on 

data from the 1988 National Education Longitudinal Study. The study will be repeated with the 

same cohort at 2-year intervals. Study variables cover attitudes, school performance, and activities 

of the eighth-grade students. In addition to direct student data, the study design incorporates data 

from students’ school principals, parents, and teachers to identify additional factors that affect 

student achievement. In addition to a general statistical profile of the target population, statistics 

and accompanying analyses cover mathematics and reading performance, at-risk issues, school 

safety and climate, and high school and college plans. Focus is on circumstances under which 

children flourish and succeed. The study included a clustered, stratified national probability sample 

of about 800 public and 200 private schools. Almost 25,000 students participated in the base-year 

study. The sample represents the nation’s eighth-grade population, totalling about 3 million 

eighth-graders in over 38,000 school in the spring of 1988. Results reveal that the American 

eighth-grade population is very diverse. One out of every five students is unable to perform basic 

arithmetic tasks, and 14% of the students are unable to perform basic reading comprehension 

tasks. Pertinent methodological discussions and associated data are appended. (Fifteen graphs and 

69 data tables are included; 66p.) 

2. Rasinski, K.A., and West, J. NELS:88: Eighth Graders’ Reports of Courses Taken During the 1988

Academic Year by Selected Student Characteristics, 1990; NCES 90-459. 

This set of tables examines self-reports of coursework taken by a national probability sample of 

eighth graders in public and private schools in the United States. Statistics were obtained from 

the base-year student survey of the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88). 

Estimates in the tables are based on a sample of 24,599 students in 1,052 schools across the 

nation. Technical notes follow 45 pages of tables. Three basic sets of tables on self-reported 

course-taking are provided in the areas of: (1) mathematics, science, and computer education 

(Tables 1.1 to 1.5); (2) English, foreign language, history, social studies, and religion (Tables 2.1 

to 2.5); and (3) arts, vocational education, and personal development (Tables 3.1 to 3.5). Within 

each set of tables, the first table shows course-taking across all schools. Subsequent tables show 

course-taking for public, Catholic, independent private, and other private schools. In addition to 

information about the sample, the technical notes contain information about survey design, 

response rates, variables used in the tables, and methods for estimating standard errors. An 

appendix contains standard errors of estimates and unweighted sample sizes for levels of 

classification variables. (68 p.) 

47 Abstracts are taken from ERIC when available, otherwise from the NELS:88 bibliography maintained by NORC under the 

NELS:88 third follow-up contract. 

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3. Hoachlander, E.G. A Profile of Schools Attended by Eighth Graders in 1988, 1991; NCES 91-129. 

As part of the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88), this study examined 

the schools attended by eighth-graders in 1988, the year during which the more than 25,000 

eighth-graders of the cohort were first studied. NELS:88 provides information on 802 public 

schools, 105 Catholic schools, 68 other religious schools, and 60 private, non-religious schools. 

Throughout the report, the unit of analysis is the school rather than students or teachers. Most of 

the school data were provided by school administrators. The data are used to develop a profile of 

the schools attended by eighth- graders, with information about various aspects of the learning 

environment, school policies and programs, and administrators’ assessments of school climate. In 

1988, 87.9% of eighth-graders attended public schools, 7.6% attended Catholic schools, 2.9% 

attended other religious schools, and 1.5% attended private non-religious schools. The study 

shows that eighth-graders learned under a wide range of different conditions in both public and 

private schools. Fifty-six data tables and five graphs are included. Appendices contain technical 

notes, information about the accuracy of estimates and procedures, standard errors and unweighted 

"N"s, and 56 additional tables. (119 p.) 

4. Rock, D.A., Pollack, J.M., and Hafner, A. The Tested Achievement of the National Education

Longitudinal Study of 1988 Eighth-Grade Class, 1991; NCES 91-460. 

Sixty tables are presented, which examine the test achievement of a national probability sample 

of eighth graders in public and private schools. Statistics were obtained from the base-year 

student survey of the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88). Its purpose is 

to provide policy-relevant data concerning the effectiveness of schools, curriculum paths, special 

programs, variations in curriculum content, and/or mode of delivery in bringing about educational 

growth. The NELS:88 test battery includes four tests: (1) reading comprehension; (2) mathematics; 

(3) science; and (4) history/citizenship/government. This report is a tabular summary of 

achievement test scores for approximately 24,000 eighth graders from 1,052 schools. Results are 

grouped into: student background variables; parental involvement variables; and school 

characteristics and school climate. Reading and mathematics tables contain, in addition to mean 

scores, the percentage of each group scoring at each proficiency level and the standard error of 

the percentage estimate. Effect sizes are included to compare group differences. Technical notes 

on survey design, response rates, variables in the tables, significance testing, and methods for 

estimating standard errors and effect sizes follow the tables. (122 p.). 

5. Kaufman, P., and Rasinski, K.A. Quality of Responses of Eighth-Grade Students to the NELS:88 Base

Year Questionnaire, 1991; NCES 91-487. 

This report presents results of an examination of the quality of responses of eighth-grade students 

to a subset of variables available in the NELS:88 database. The quality of the data was assessed 

several ways. The correspondence between parent and student responses to similar items on the 

similar items on the survey instruments was examined. When data were available, the study 

examined consistency among responses to related items. Finally, the reliability of several scales 

created from NELS:88 data was assessed. The indicators of data quality suggest that NELS:88 

data display a high degree of accuracy and consistency, comparing favorably with responses from 

the prior NCES longitudinal study, High School and Beyond Study (HS&B). The quality of 

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student responses to items common to both studies was somewhat less for NELS:88 eighth-graders 

than for HS&B high school sophomores and seniors, with quality increasing with age, and, as 

expected from prior research, with reading ability and socioeconomic status. There are 39 tables 

of NELS:88 data and 2 illustrative bar graphs. (119 p.) 

6. McMillen, M. Eighth to Tenth Grade Dropouts, 1992; Statistics in Brief series, NCES 92-006. 

This report presents data from the 1988 National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS:88), which 

started with an eighth-grade cohort and aimed to provide data on dropout experiences as students 

made the transition into high school and to examine the contextual school and family factors 

associated with dropping out. The report explains the parameters of the study, the survey 

methodology, and the data reliability. The data are presented in the following bar graphs: (1) 8th 

to 10th grade cohort dropout rates by race/ethnicity and sex; (2) 8th to 10th grade cohort dropout 

rates by region and metropolitan status; and (3) 8th to 10th grade cohort dropout rates by eighthgrade school (public, Catholic, religious private, and non-religious private). (7 p.). 

7. Owings, J.A., and Peng, S. Transitions Experienced by 1988 Eighth Graders, 1992. NCES 92-023. 

This brief report presents findings regarding two types of transitions experienced by students as 

they move between the eighth and 10th grades: continuing or dropping out of school and 

transferring between sectors. While 98% of public school students remained in public schools, 

over one-third of Catholic school eighth graders and over 25% of National Association of 

Independent Schools students transferred to public or other private schools. About 6% of all eighth 

graders were classified as dropouts by spring of their scheduled 10th-grade year. For most 

students, the move between eighth and 10th grades involves a change of schools and exposure to 

new educational settings. These transitions may have an impact on student learning and personal 

development. Consequently, differences in transition patterns and possible outcomes are of major 

interest. Data were obtained from the base year and first follow-up surveys of the National 

Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88), which began in 1988 with a sample of 1,052 

schools and 24,599 eighth graders. In the spring of 1990, 17,424 students were studied in the first 

follow-up to determine their education status and progress, and school, community, and work 

experiences. Four tables present study data, and five graphs illustrate trends from 1988 to 1990. 

(13 p.). 

8. Kaufman, P., and Bradby, D. Characteristics of At-Risk Students in NELS:88, 1992; NCES 92-042. 

The study described in this report examined the characteristics of eighth-grade students who were 

at risk of school failure. The study used data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 

1988, which is a large-scale, national longitudinal study begun in the spring of 1988 when 25,000 

eighth graders attending public and private schools across the nation were surveyed along with 

the students’ parents, teachers, and school principals. The students were re-surveyed in 1990, and 

the base year and follow-up data of NELS:88 taken together provide a wealth of information about 

eighth graders’ as they move in and out of the U.S. school system and into the varied activities 

of early adolescence. This study, focused on at-risk students within the eighth-grade cohort, 

examined the following sets of variables: (1) basic demographic characteristics; (2) family and 

personal background characteristics; (3) the amount of parental involvement in the student’s 

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education; (4) the students’ academic history; (5) student behavioral factors; (6) teacher 

perceptions of the students; and (7) characteristics of the students’ schools. Black, Hispanic 

American, and Native American students and students from low-socioeconomic backgrounds were 

more likely to be at-risk. Male eighth graders were more likely to have low basic skills, but were 

no more likely to drop out. After controlling for sex and socioeconomic status, Black and 

Hispanic American dropout rates were found to be the same as that for Whites. However, even 

when controlling for sex and economic status, Black and Hispanic American students were more 

likely than White students to perform below basic proficiency levels. (Included are 15 tables in 

the text and 31 tables in 2 appendixes; 107 p.). 

9. Bradby, D. Language Characteristics and Academic Achievement: A Look at Asian and Hispanic

Eighth Graders in NELS:88, 1992; NCES 92-479. 

This report examines the demographic and language characteristics and educational aspirations of 

Asian American and Hispanic American eighth graders and relates that information to their 

mathematical ability and reading comprehension as measured by an achievement test. Special 

attention is paid to students who come from homes in which a non-English language is spoken. 

Of the 1,505 Asian American students evaluated, 73 percent were reported as language minorities 

(LMs), while 77 percent of the 3,129 Hispanic American students evaluated were LMs. Of the LM 

students, 66 percent of the Asian Americans had high English proficiency as compared to 64 

percent of the LM Hispanic Americans. Both Asian American and Hispanic American groups had 

4 percent of LM students showing low English proficiency. Overall, the study found many 

similarities between the two groups. However, differences are apparent when data are divided 

along language proficiency, mathematics achievement, aspiration, and other measures. Statistical 

data are provided in 33 tables and 44 graphs. Appendices present selected survey questions, 

technical notes and methodology, and 109 standard error tables. (197 p.). 

10. Horn, L., and Hafner, A. A Profile of American Eighth-Grade Mathematics and Science Instruction, 

1992; NCES 92-486. 

This report profiles the mathematics and science instruction received by eighth graders (11,414 

eighth graders had teacher reports in mathematics and 10,686 in science) in public and private 

schools in 1988. A preface lists highlighted findings, tables, and figures included in the 

document. The body of the report consists of five chapters. Chapter I discusses the purpose and 

format of the report and limitations of the study. Chapters II and III examine the relationship of 

various aspects of mathematics and science instruction to students’ socioeconomic status and 

race-ethnicity and type of school attended. Among the aspects examined were the major topics 

taught, average class size, hours per week attended, allocation of class time, assigned homework, 

availability of instructional materials, student attitudes toward mathematics and science, and 

teacher characteristics and qualifications. Chapter IV examines mathematics and science 

achievement test scores in relation to the various components of instruction measured in the study. 

Chapter V provides a descriptive profile of the mathematics curriculum, the science curriculum, 

teacher characteristics and qualifications, classroom characteristics, school type differences, and 

students’ opportunity to learn based on the findings. Appendices that describe the methodology 

employed and standard errors of estimates reported in tables and figures in the text are provided. 

(121 p.). 

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11. Horn, L., and West, J. A Profile of Parents of Eighth Graders, 1992; NCES 92-488. 

This report profiles the family characteristics and the level of involvement reported by the parents 

of 1988 eighth graders, using the base year survey and dropout data from the first follow-up. 

About 93 percent of the parents of the first year sample were interviewed to provide information 

about home life and family experiences. This study examined child-directed involvement, 

including activities such as parent-child discussions and school-directed involvement such as 

parent-teacher association membership and volunteering in the school. There was some indication 

that parent involvement was related to whether or not students scored below the basic level in 

reading or mathematics proficiency, but there was a strong relationship between parent 

involvement and whether or not a student dropped out of school between the 8th and 10th grades. 

There are 26 tables and 18 figures presenting study findings. (121 p.). 

12. Green, P.J. High School Seniors Look to the Future, 1972 and 1992, 1993; Statistics in Brief series, 

NCES 93-473. 

In light of the many changes of the past 20 years, it may be expected that plans of high school 

seniors for further education may have also changed, along with the kinds of jobs they expect to 

have and the things they regard as important. These questions are examined through data from the 

National Longitudinal Study of 1972 (NLS-72) and the National Education Longitudinal Study 

in 1988 (NELS:88), the 1992 Second Follow-Up. The proportion of seniors in academic or college 

preparatory programs was approximately the same in both years, although enrollment in the 

general track increased and enrollment in vocational education decreased. In 1992, there was little 

difference between the sexes in high school program placement. In 1992, only 5.3 of students 

reported that they would not attend some kind of school after high school, but in 1972, 18.9% had 

reported that they would not continue. Eighty-four percent in 1992 planned to go to college, 

compared with the 63% who planned to attend in 1972. Differences for females were dramatic, 

with female seniors in 1992 four times more likely to plan on graduate or professional school as 

in 1972. Nearly 60% in 1992 planned a professional career, compared with approximately 45% 

in 1972. Changes in values were most marked among women, who in 1992 espoused values closer 

to those traditionally held by men. One figure and three tables present data about the two 

populations. (6 p.) 

13. McMillen, M., Hausken, E., Kaufman, P., Ingels, S., Dowd, K., Frankel, M. and Qian, J. Dropping

Out of School: 1982 and 1992, Issue Brief series, 1993; NCES 93-901. 

In recent years, concern over students dropping out of school has increased. A primary focus is 

the size of the dropout population, a question that has been addressed in two National Center for 

Education Statistics (NCES) longitudinal studies. Both studies provide the data needed to consider 

the dropout experiences between the sophomore and senior years of two groups of students a 

decade apart in time. Over the 10 years between the 1980-82 High School and Beyond survey 

(HS&B) and the 1990-92 data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 

(NELS:88) (follow-ups), there was a 43 percent reduction in the percent of sophomores who 

dropped out of school. The NELS:88 rate for the sophomore cohort of 1990 is 6.2 percent. 

Relative rankings for racial and ethnic groups did not change over the decade, and in both cohorts 

the dropout rates for Hispanics were higher than those for Whites and Asians. Rates for Blacks 

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1972-1992

were between those of Hispanic Americans and Whites. In both periods, failure in school and 

dislike for school were major factors leading students to drop out of school. Pregnancy and 

marriage were important factors influencing females’ decisions to leave school early. Three figures 

illustrate the discussion. (3 p.) 

14. Rasinski, K.A., Ingels, S.J., Rock, D.A., and Pollack, J. America’s High School Sophomores: A Ten

Year Comparison, 1980 - 1990, 1993; NCES 93-087. 

This study of high school sophomores in 1980 and 1990 compares the experiences of students in 

the two cohorts, identifying changes in in-school and out-of-school activities, academic 

achievement, self-concept, values, plans, and aspirations. Similarities and differences between the 

two groups are documented using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 

(NELS:88) and High School and Beyond (HS&B, 1980). HS&B and NELS:88 sophomores are 

marked by basic demographic differences, including the smaller size of the NELS:88 1990 cohort, 

reflecting the baby bust of the 1970s, and a higher proportion of racial minority and poverty status 

sophomores in 1990. NELS:88 sophomores also reflect the influence of various waves of school 

reform since the late 1970s and early 1980s. Overall, the comparison paints a pictures that is in 

most respects encouraging in its portrayal of the high school academic orientation and 

postsecondary expectations of the 1990 sophomore class. Positive changes, however, are typically 

small or moderate in magnitude. Among the findings are: (1) general and college preparatory 

program placement has increased, at the expense of vocational program placement; (2) patterns 

of extracurricular participation changed especially in musical activities (31% in 1980 to 22% in 

1990) and in hobby clubs (21% in 1980 to 7% in 1990); (3) changes in sophomores giving high 

importance to particular life values (e.g., marriage and family 83% rating this as very important 

in 1980, 72% in 1990); (4) small but statistically significant increase in the number of females 

aspiring to traditionally male-dominated non-professional occupations (15.6% in 1980 versus 18.% 

in 1990). Sixteen tables and 13 figures present data from the 2 studies. Three appendixes contain 

information about the survey sample sizes, standard errors, and other methodological and technical 

information. Appendix A contains an additional 20 data tables. (Contains 46 references; xiv, 98 

p.) 

15. Rock, D.A., Owings, J.A., and Lee, R. Changes in Math Proficiency Between Eighth and Tenth

Grades. Statistics in Brief series, 1994, NCES 93-455. 

This publication illustrates use of the NELS:88 dichotomous proficiency scores for conducting 

achievement gain analysis (see Scott, Rock, Pollack and Ingels [entry 21] for an illustration of an 

alternative gain analysis strategy, the use of mathematics probability of proficiency scores). The 

findings presented in this report suggest that course-taking patterns in mathematics between eighth 

grade and the sophomore year of high school represent an important factor in explaining growth 

in math proficiency. For example, even after controlling for eighth-grade math proficiency, higher 

math gains were associated with course-taking patterns that reflected advanced level math courses. 

The report also suggests that eighth-grade students who have higher aspirations for postsecondary 

education are also more likely to show positive math gains. (20 p.) 

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16. Finn, J.D. School Engagement and Students At Risk. 1993; NCES 93-470. 

To examine the proposition that students who do not remain active participants in class or school 

may be at risk for school failure, regardless of status characteristics such as ethnicity or family 

income, two studies of engagement and achievement were conducted. The studies used a 

nationwide sample of eighth-grade students from the U.S. Department of Education’s National 

Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88) survey. The first study examined the 

association of participation in school and classroom activities with academic achievement in 

15,737 eighth-graders attending public schools. The study found that participation and academic 

achievement were positively related, even after controlling for gender, ethnicity, and 

socioeconomic status. The second study examined behaviors that distinguish students who are at 

risk, but who are successful in school subjects, from their less successful peers. A sample of 5,945 

eighth-graders identified as at risk by virtue of race, home language or socioeconomic status were 

classified as unsuccessful, passing, or successful, based on reading and mathematics achievement 

tests. It was found that achievement groups were distinct in terms of variety of classroom 

participation behaviors, out-of-class participation, and interactions with their parents regarding 

school. Three major conclusions were drawn from the investigation: (1) behavioral risk factors are 

indeed related to significant outcomes of schooling; (2) risk behaviors have their roots in the early 

school years or before; and (3) more attention should be given by educators and researchers to 

encouraging the potential of "marginal" students. Further research is needed to identify 

manipulable aspects of classroom and school processes that encourage student engagement. 

Appendices provide details of the measures used in the studies and the standard deviations and 

correlations of the measures. Contains 91 references. (117p.). 

17. Rasinski, K.A. The Effect of High School Vocational Education on Academic Achievement Gain and

High School Persistence: Evidence from NELS:88, 1994; Report to the Office of Research, OERI, 

U.S. Department of Education. 

This analysis of the effects of vocational education on academic achievement and high school 

persistence was prepared for the National Assessment of Vocational Education. Data from the 

NELS:88 high school transcript study were analyzed to assess the influence of vocational 

programs and vocational courses on gains in tested achievement in mathematics, science and 

reading. The analysis also addresses the issue of whether, regardless of their effect on 

achievement gain, vocational programs serve to keep students from dropping out of high school. 

18. Ingels, S.J., Plank, S.B., Schneider, B., and Scott, L.A. A Profile of the American High School

Sophomore in 1990, 1994; NCES 94-086. 

This cross-sectional report supplies descriptive analyses of the educational situation of a 

representative sample of the nation’s 1990 sophomores (comprising 1988 eighth-grade cohort 

members who were in tenth grade in the spring term of 1990 and "freshened" sophomores, 

students new to the sample who were not in the base year sampling frame, either because they 

were not 1987-88 eighth graders or not in the United States). Chapter 1 provides an in-depth 

view of tenth-grade learning and achievement in mathematics. Chapter 2 supplies a summary of 

tenth-grade course-taking patterns and instructional practices in science, reading, social studies, 

and foreign language. Chapter 3 explores the tenth grader’s life outside of school, including the 

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process of educational decision making. Chapter 4 reports on sophomores’ plans for the future, 

including their educational expectations and aspirations. Taken together, these four chapters 

provide a statistical profile of the American high school sophomore in 1990, which is summarized 

in Chapter 5. Appendices A and B provide technical notes and tables of standard errors of 

measurement and sample sizes for all reported population estimates. Appendix C contains further 

information about NELS:88 in general and the first follow-up in particular. Appendix D presents 

additional tabulations on reading and social studies achievement. 

19. Myers, D., and Heiser, N. Students’ School Transition Patterns between Eighth and Tenth Grades

Based on NELS:88, 1994; NCES 94-137. 

Analysis of NELS:88 data makes it possible to explore the relationships between student and 

family characteristics and the likelihood of shifting among public and private schools as students 

progress from eighth to tenth grade. This study examines the characteristics of students who 

switch between sectors (public to private, or private to public) as they move from eighth to tenth 

grade. Five sets of variables were examined to estimate the association between variations in the 

students’ transition patterns and student and family characteristics: (1) basic student and family 

background characteristics; (2) the amount of parental involvement in the student’s education; (3) 

the student’s academic achievement and educational expectations; (4) the characteristics of the 

student’s school; and (5) parental satisfaction with the student’s school. Examination of these 

characteristics permits four research questions to be addressed: (1) How many students shift 

between the public and private school sectors? How many students shift from one private school 

to another?; (2) Who shifts between sectors? Are family background factors, parental 

involvement, or students’ academic achievement or educational expectations associated with 

variations in transition patterns?; (3) Are school characteristics associated with students’ propensity 

to move between school sectors?; (4) Do parents who are dissatisfied with their children’s school 

shift their children to another type of school? 

20. Green, P.J., Dugoni, B.L., Ingels, S.J., and Camburn, E. A Profile of the American High School

Senior in 1992, NCES, 1995; NCES 94-384. 

This report examines the background of 1992 high school seniors, the school environment which 

shaped their senior year experiences, the curriculum in which they were enrolled, their academic 

achievement, their plans and expectations for the future, and their non-academic experiences 

during this important period of development. Chapter 1 provides a demographic profile of high 

school seniors. Chapter 2 depicts their school and peer environment by recording seniors’ 

perceptions of school, of the safety of their school, and of the values of their peers. Chapter 3

describes their course and program enrollments. Chapter 4 examines the tested achievement of 

1992 seniors. Chapter 5 describes their short-term plans--their postsecondary plans, steps they 

have taken to gain entrance to college, and factors they considered in choosing a postsecondary 

institution. Chapter 6 reports on seniors’ plans and expectations for the future. Finally, chapter

7 describes the senior cohort’s experiences outside of school--use of illicit drugs and alcohol, 

television viewing, jobs, participation in school government, and community volunteer work. 

Taken together, these seven chapters provide a statistical profile of the American high school 

senior in 1992. Appendices provide unweighted (sample) Ns and standard errors. 

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21. Scott, L.A., Rock, D.A., Pollack, J.M., and Ingels, S.J. Two Years Later: Cognitive Gains and

School Transitions of NELS:88 Eighth Graders, 1994, NCES 94-436. 

This report describes the growth in cognitive skills and achievement, and the continuities and 

discontinuities experienced in school and at home by the NELS:88 eighth grade-cohort during the 

two years between the study’s base year (1988) and first follow-up (1990) surveys. Four distinct 

topics are addressed, involving both school dropouts and persisters. (1) By 1990, some 1988 

eighth graders were dropouts; this report describes their characteristics and the reasons they gave 

for dropping out of school. (2) This report presents findings on patterns of school transition--

changing from a public eighth-grade school to a private high school or vice versa--and the changes 

in perception of safety and overall learning environment cohort members experienced after moving 

from a typically more homogeneous middle school environment to a more heterogeneous high 

school environment. (3) Additionally, this report summarizes major changes in home life and 

family, such as the divorce or remarriage of a parent, that also occurred during cohort members’ 

transition to and/or early years of high school. (4) Finally, this report examines the 1988-90 

achievement gain of the eighth-grade cohort, thus addressing several basic questions: How much 

did students gain in achievement in the two years following eighth grade?; Who gained, in what 

subjects, and (for mathematics) in what way (that is, at what skill or proficiency level)? The 

analysis of growth in achievement illustrates use of the NELS:88 continuous measure of 

probability of mathematics proficiency (see Rock, Owings and Lee [1994, entry 15] for an 

illustration of mathematics achievement gain analysis using NELS:88 dichotomous proficiency 

scores). 

22. Green, P.J., Dugoni, B.L., and Ingels, S.J. Trends Among High School Seniors, 1972 - 1992. NCES, 

1995; NCES 94-380. 

This report compares the NLS-72 1972, HS&B 1980, and NELS:88 1992 senior cohorts. It 

supplies a sociodemographic description of the three senior cohorts. The report compares the 

cohorts’ high school program placement, course-taking and achievement, as well as participation 

in extracurricular activities. It also compares 1972, 1980 and 1992 seniors’ plans for the next 

year, noting the proportions who planned to work full-time in the year following graduation, the 

type of postsecondary institution seniors planned to attend, college selection, and major field of 

study. Finally, the report compares the future educational and occupational aspirations of the three 

senior cohorts. 

23. Hoffer, T.B. and Moore, W. High School Seniors’ Instructional Experiences in Science and

Mathematics, 1995. 

This study examines the instructional experiences of a national sample of 1992 high school seniors 

in the subjects of science and mathematics. The data analyzed are from the second follow-up 

survey of the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88). The information on 

instruction comes from the NELS:88 1992 survey of teachers, which collected questionnaires from 

the science and mathematics teachers of 9,853 sampled seniors enrolled in public and private high 

schools across the United States. Two general questions are addressed: Why do students’ 

instructional experiences differ? and What consequences do the differences have for student 

academic achievement? Descriptive statistics on the relationships of students’ family backgrounds, 

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curriculum track level, and high school characteristics with instructional variables are presented. 

Regression analysis is used to estimate the effects of different instructional experiences on 

achievement score gains from 1990 to 1992. 

24. Green, P.J., and Scott, L.A. "At-Risk" Eighth Graders Four Years Later, NCES, 1995; NCES 95-

736. 

This publication in the NCES Statistics in Brief series extends to the 1992 second follow-up the 

analysis of "at risk" factors begun by Hafner, Ingels, Schneider, and Stevenson (1990) with the 

base year data and continued by Scott, Rock, Pollack and Ingels (1995) with the first follow-up 

data. Approximately 26 percent of eighth grade students had an "at risk" characteristic and 20 

percent had two or more of these risk factors. Examining the outcomes of at-risk eighth graders 

four years later (1992), Green and Scott examine both achievement outcomes and social and 

behavioral outcomes. With respect to achievement, Green and Scott report that (1) approximately 

one in six adolescents with multiple risk factors were unable to comprehend basic written 

information, testing below the basic level in reading in 1992. In comparison, only about one in 

twenty of those with no risk factors were unable to demonstrate basic reading skills. (2) At-risk 

students were more likely than others in 1992 to test poorly in mathematics. Over half of those 

with multiple risk factors tested at the basic level, or below, In contrast, only about a fifth of 

those with no observed risk factors tested at that level. (3) Nearly one-third of students with 

multiple risk factors could not demonstrate even a "common knowledge" of science. Only 12.2 

of students with no risk factors failed to demonstrate competence at this basic level. In respect 

of 1992 social and behavioral outcomes, and 1992 graduation status, Green and Scott report (1) 

Students who had multiple risk factors in 1992 were no more likely than others to report using 

illicit drugs (marijuana or alcohol), or to report abusing alcohol than those with no risk factors. 

(2) Eighth graders who had multiple risk factors in 1988 were more likely than others to have 

a child in 1992--18.9 percent compared to 5.4 percent. (3) Students with multiple risk factors 

were more likely than others to report being suspended, and being sent to a juvenile home or 

detention center. (4) Among 1988 eighth graders with no risk factors, ninety percent had earned 

a high school diploma by 1992. Among 1988 eighth graders with multiple risk factors, sixty 

percent had earned their high school diploma by 1992, while the other forty percent had not. 

25. Rock, D.A., and Pollack, J.M. Mathematics Course Taking and Gains in Mathematics Achievement.

NCES, 1995; NCES 95-714. 

This publication in the NCES Statistics in Brief series extends to the 1992 second follow-up the 

analysis of 1988-1990 test score gains reported in Scott, Rock, Pollack and Ingels (1995). 

However, instead of self-report data on courses completed, Rock and Pollack utilize the results 

of the NELS:88 high school transcript study. Rock and Pollack found that when student gains 

in tested mathematics achievement were cross-classified by grade in school and highest level of 

mathematics course taken: 

• Slightly over 60 percent of high school students do not go beyond the algebra 2/geometry level 

of coursework. 

• Approximately 1 out of 9 students take a calculus course while in high school; about 1 out of 

4 students, in contrast, never go past algebra in their high school career. 

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Trends Among High School Seniors

1972-1992

• Growth in arithmetic, algebra, and geometry achievement appears to be greater in the first two 

years of high school than in the last two years for almost all course-taking categories. 

• Students who take the more advanced mathematics courses show greater gains, both between 

8th and 10th grade, and between 10th and 12th grade. 

• Students who do not take advanced courses make greater gains on test items dealing with 

computational skills, while students in the advanced courses make larger gains on test items 

requiring conceptual understanding and problem-solving skills. In fact, for these students, 

significant growth does not occur until they move into the pre-calculus level of coursework. 

26. Hoffer, T.B., Rasinski, K.A., and Moore, W. Social Background Differences in High School

Mathematics and Science Coursetaking and Achievement. NCES, 1995; NCES 95-206. 

This publication in the NCES Statistics in Brief series uses NELS:88 test and transcript data to 

address two questions: (a) To what extent do students from different social backgrounds differ 

in the numbers of courses they complete during high school and in their final levels of academic 

achievement? And (b) Does additional coursework have comparable relationships to measured 

achievement gains during the high school years for students from different backgrounds. Hoffer, 

Rasinski and Moore report the following findings: (1) Gender differences in the numbers of 

science and mathematics courses students complete are not significant. Students from higher 

socioeconomic families, however, complete more courses in these subjects. (2) The numbers of 

math and science courses students complete in high school are strongly related to how much their 

test scores increase from the end of eighth grade to the end of senior year. (3) Additional 

coursework pays off about equally for all students in terms of increasing achievement gain, 

regardless of gender, race-ethnicity, and social class. 

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