APPENDIX 10-D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE USING 

ALTERNATIVE GROWTH SCENARIOS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10-D.1 INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................10-D-1

10-D.2 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO ..................10-D-2

10-D.3 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO ...................10-D-3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10-D.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic 

Growth Scenario ......................................................................................10-D-2

Table 10-D.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, High Economic 

Growth Scenario ......................................................................................10-D-3

Table 10-D.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario ......................................................................................10-D-3

Table 10-D.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario ......................................................................................10-D-4

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 10-D.1.1 Total Housing Stock Forecast Under Alternative AEO2013 Economic 

Growth Scenarios.....................................................................................10-D-1

Figure 10-D.1.2 Average Residential Electricity Price Forecasts under Alternative 

AEO2013 Economic Growth Scenarios ..................................................10-D-2

10-D-i
APPENDIX 10-D. NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE USING 

ALTERNATIVE GROWTH SCENARIOS

10-D.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix presents national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) 

results using inputs from alternative economic growth scenarios. The scenarios use the energy 

price and housing starts forecasts in the High Economic Growth case and the Low Economic 

Growth case from EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO 2013).

1

Figure 10-D.1.1 and Figure 10-D.1.2 show the forecasts for total housing stock and 

residential electricity prices under the different economic growth scenarios. AEO2013 provides a 

forecast to 2040. To estimate the trend after 2040, DOE followed guidelines that the EIA had 

provided to the Federal Energy Management Program, which called for using the average rate of 

change for electricity during 2025–2040.

Figure 10-D.1.1 Total Housing Stock Forecast Under Alternative 

AEO2013 Economic Growth Scenarios

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Total Housing Stock (millions)

Reference High Low

10-D-1
Figure 10-D.1.2 Average Residential Electricity Price Forecasts 

under Alternative AEO2013 Economic Growth 

Scenarios

10-D.2 NIA RESULTS FOR HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

Table 10-D.2.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, High Economic Growth 

Scenario

CSL ≤20.00 

pints/day

20.01-

30.00 

pints/day

30.01-

35.00 

pints/day

35.01-

44.99 

pints/day

≥45.00 

pints/day

≤8ft3

Case 

Volume

(Wholehome)

>8ft3

Case 

Volume

(Wholehome)

All

1 0.20 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.24

2 0.23 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.35

3 0.27 0.06 0.15 0.14 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.64

4 0.32 0.15 0.20 0.19 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.92

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

Electricity Price Trend (2012=100)

AEO 2013 Electricity Projection (National)

Reference Case High Low

10-D-2
Table 10-D.2.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, High Economic 

Growth Scenario

Price 

Trend

Product Class 

(pints/day)

Candidate Standard Levels

CSL1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4

3% 

(billion 

2012$)

≤20.00 1.49 1.67 1.93 2.31

20.01-30.00 0.04 0.23 0.41 1.03

30.01-35.00 0.04 0.34 1.01 1.35

35.01-44.99 0.00 0.12 0.98 1.34

≥45.00 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.24

≤8ft3 Case Volume (Whole-home) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

>8ft3 Case Volume (Whole-home) 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.03

7% 

(billion 

2012$)

≤20.00 0.63 0.71 0.81 0.96

20.01-30.00 0.02 0.10 0.18 0.43

30.01-35.00 0.02 0.15 0.42 0.56

35.01-44.99 0.00 0.05 0.40 0.56

≥45.00 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.09

≤8ft3 Case Volume (Whole-home) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

>8ft3 Case Volume (Whole-home) 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01

10-D.3 NIA RESULTS FOR LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

Table 10-D.3.1 Cumulative National Energy Savings in Quads, Low Economic Growth 

Scenario

CSL ≤20.00 

pints/day

20.01-

30.00 

pints/day

30.01-

35.00 

pints/day

35.01-

44.99 

pints/day

≥45.00 

pints/day

≤8ft3

Case 

Volume

(Wholehome)

>8ft3

Case 

Volume

(Wholehome)

All

1 0.19 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.23

2 0.22 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.34

3 0.25 0.06 0.14 0.14 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.61

4 0.31 0.14 0.19 0.18 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.87

10-D-3
Table 10-D.3.2 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits, Low Economic 

Growth Scenario

Price 

Trend

Product Class 

(pints/day)

Candidate Standard Levels

CSL1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4

3% 

(billion 

2012$)

≤20.00 1.37 1.54 1.78 2.13

20.01-30.00 0.04 0.21 0.38 0.94

30.01-35.00 0.04 0.31 0.92 1.24

35.01-44.99 0.00 0.11 0.90 1.23

≥45.00 0.11 0.14 0.14 0.22

≤8ft3 Case Volume (Whole-home) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

>8ft3 Case Volume (Whole-home) 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03

7% 

(billion 

2012$)

≤20.00 0.59 0.66 0.76 0.90

20.01-30.00 0.02 0.09 0.17 0.40

30.01-35.00 0.02 0.14 0.39 0.52

35.01-44.99 0.00 0.05 0.37 0.52

≥45.00 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.08

≤8ft3 Case Volume (Whole-home) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

>8ft3 Case Volume (Whole-home) 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01

10-D-4
REFERENCES

1 U.S. Department of Energy-Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy 

Outlook 2013 with Projections to 2040, 2013. Washington, DC. Report Number: 

DOE/EIA-0383(2013).

< http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/>

10-D-5