The Summary Costs sheet provides the incremental volumes over which the costs are being calculated along with the costs o

1) The entire change in the advanced standard is met with soybean oil biomass-based diesel

2) The entire change in the advanced standard is met with sugarcane ethanol from Brazil

3) The entire change in the non-advanced renewable fuel volumes is met with corn ethanol

Details on each of these scenarios can be found in their respective sheets.

This spreadsheet contains the data inputs and calculations performed by EPA to calculate illustrative costs for the 2015 and 2

standards. More information on the methodology can be found in the "Memo to the docket on illustrative cost impacts of th

RFS2 standards, 2014-2017"
 calculated along with the costs of three scenarios:

ustrative costs for the 2015 and 2016 proposed 

t on illustrative cost impacts of the proposed annual 
Volumes (million gallons)

2013 Final 

Standards

2014 Proposed 

Standards

2015 Proposed 

Standards

Cellulosic biofuel 6 33 104

BBD 1,280 1,630 1,700

Advanced Gap 824 1,017 1,096

Non-advanced renewable 

fuel 13,800 13,250 13,400

Total Advanced 2,750 2,680 2,900

Total 16,550 15,930 16,300

All Sugarcane 2,680 2,900

All BBD* 1,787 1,933

 13,250 13,400

*"All BBD" Advanced Volumes divided by 1.5 to reflect the fact volumes needed to meet the standard in this scenario would 

Advanced

Non-advanced renewable fuel

Volumes (million gal)

2015 Proposed 

Volumes

2014 Proposed 

Volumes
2016 Proposed 

Standards

2014 Difference 

(2014 - 2013)

2015 Difference 

(2015 - 2014)

2016 Difference 

(2016-2015)

2016 Alternate (2016-

2014)

 211 27 71 107 178

 1,800 350 70 100 170

 1,389 193 79 293 372

 14,000 (550) 150 600 750

 3,400 (70) 220 500 720

 17,400 (620) 370 1,100 1,470

Low Price High Price

 3,400 220 500 $228 $615

 2,267 147 333 $218 $229

 14,000 150 600 $122 $138

meet the standard in this scenario would require 2/3 of the physical gallons vs. sugarcane based on the energy value of biodiesel.

Illustrative Costs of 2015 and 2016 Proposed Standards 

Volumes (million gal)

2015 2016 Difference 

(2016-2015)

2015 Difference 

(2015 - 2014)

2016 Proposed 

Volumes
Low Price High Price Low Price High Price

$424 $1,303 $610 $1,877

$483 $697 $695 $1,003

$348 $541 $435 $676

gy value of biodiesel.

2016

Costs (million $)

2016 Alternate
lbs Soybean oil/gal biodiesel 7.55

Soybean Oil Costs (cents/lb)

Low $0.32

High $0.32

Low $0.30

High $0.33

*We take WASDE's 2014/2015 marketing year projections to be representative of 2015 prices, and the 2015/2016 marketing 

**2016 here equals baseline 2015/2016 WASDE + Price impact calculated for marginal 2016 volumes + Price impact calculate

Low High Low

Soyoil cost (WASDE) $ 2.59 $ 2.59 $ 2.81

Net operating costs (other operating costs net glycerin value) $ 0.50 $ 0.47 $ 0.50

Net operating return $ 0.10

Total Cost of Fuel (Vol) $ 3.09 $ 3.16 $ 3.31

Total Cost of Fuel (DGE) $ 3.39 $ 3.46 $ 3.62

Soybean Oil-Biodiesel Price Relationship 2015 2016

Increase in soybean oil per gal increase 

in biodiesel (cents/lb/gal) 0.00000001600 0.00000001600

Rate of Price Increase ($/gal) 0.00000000121 0.00000000121

Change in # of gallons biodiesel in 

Advanced 146,666,667 333,333,333

Total Change in Soybean Oil($/gal) $ 0.18 $ 0.40

Wholesale Diesel ($/gal) 2015 2016

STEO (May 2015) $1.90 $2.17

Low High Low High

$1.48 $1.56 $1.45 $2.09

Soybean Oil Biomass-Based Diesel Costs

2015

2015 2016

2016

2014/2015* 

2015/2016*

WASDE (May 2015)

2015

2016**

WASDE + Price Impacts

Difference between Soy Oil BBD and Diesel per DGE
Source: 

Low $ 0.343 http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

High $ 0.343

Low $ 0.372

High $ 0.402

s, and the 2015/2016 marketing year projections to be representative of 2016 prices

volumes + Price impact calculated for marginal 2015 volumes

Source: 

High http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/outreach/publications/2014/FAPRI_MU

$ 3.03

$ 0.47

$ 0.39

$ 3.89

$ 4.26

Source: 

http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/dbs/pdffiles/13sr108.pdf

Source: 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

WASDE + Price Impacts
lications/2014/FAPRI_MU_Report_02_14.pdf

s/pdffiles/13sr108.pdf
High and low daily prices from OPIS between Jan 1, 2014 and May 25, 2015

OPIS Low $ 1.70 30-Mar-15

OPIS High $ 2.88 24-Mar-14 Source:

Freight Cost $0.14 See "ITC_U.S. Brazilian Ethano

OPIS Low OPIS High

Landed Cost of Fuel $1.85 $3.02

Cost of Fuel per BTU $2.77 $4.53

Source: 

Wholesale Gasoline ($/gal) 2015 2016 http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/

STEO (May 2015) $1.73 $1.92

2016

Low High Low High

$1.04 $2.80 $0.85 $2.61

Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol Costs

2015

Difference between Corn Ethanol and Gasoline per GGE
See "ITC_U.S. Brazilian Ethanol Imports_Provided 3.2.2015.xlsx" in the docket

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf
Gal Corn Etoh/bu Corn 2.8

Corn Costs ($/bu)

Low $3.55

High $3.75

Low $3.20

High $3.80

*We take WASDE's 2014/2015 marketing year projections to be representative of 2015 prices, and the 2015/2016 marketing 

**2016 here equals baseline 2015/2016 WASDE + Price impact calculated for marginal 2016 volumes + Price impact calculate

FAPRI-MU Cost Estimates (2015 Briefing Book)

Dry Mill ethanol costs, returns

Low High Low

DDG Value (+) $ (0.43) $ (0.43) $ (0.44)

Corn Oil Value (+) $ (0.04) $ (0.04) $ (0.06)

Corn Cost (WASDE) $ 1.28 $ 1.35 $ 1.20

Fuel and Electricity Cost $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.18

Other Operating Costs $ 0.34 $ 0.34 $ 0.35

Net Operating Return $ 0.35 $ 0.35 $ 0.44

Total Cost of Fuel (Vol) $ 1.70 $ 1.77 $ 1.67

Total Cost of Fuel (GGE) $ 2.55 $ 2.65 $ 2.50

Corn Etoh-Corn Price Relationship 2015 2016

Increase in corn price per gal increase 

in ethanol (cents/bu/gal) 0.00000002100 0.00000002100

Rate of Price Increase ($/gal) 0.00000000008 0.00000000008

Number of gallons corn 150,000,000 600,000,000

Total Change in Price Corn($/bu) $ 0.03 $ 0.13

Total Change in Price Corn($/gal) $ 0.01 $ 0.05

Wholesale Gasoline ($/gal) 2015 2016

STEO (May 2015) $1.73 $1.92

Low High Low High

$ 0.81 $ 0.92 $ 0.58 $ 0.90

2015

2016**

Difference between Corn Ethanol and Gasoline per GGE

Corn Ethanol Costs

2015 2016

2015 2016

2014/2015* 

2015/2016*

WASDE (May 2015) WASDE + Price Impacts
Source: 

Low $3.58 http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

High $3.78

Low $3.36

High $3.96

 prices, and the 2015/2016 marketing year projections to be representative of 2016 prices

2016 volumes + Price impact calculated for marginal 2015 volumes

Source: 

http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/FAPRI-MU-Report-01-15.pd

High

$ (0.44)

$ (0.06)

$ 1.41

$ 0.18

$ 0.35

$ 0.44

$ 1.88

$ 2.82

Source: 

http://www.card.iastate.edu/publications/dbs/pdffiles/13wp543.pdf

Source: 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

WASDE + Price Impacts
15/03/FAPRI-MU-Report-01-15.pdf

3wp543.pdf
Fuel Type Unit of 

Measure

BTUs/Gal Gallon 

Equivalent

B100/Diesel BTU, 

Etoh/Gasoline BTU

Gasoline (regular) gallon 114,100 1.00 gallon

Diesel #2 gallon 129,500 0.88 gallons

Biodiesel (B100) gallon 118,300 0.96 gallons

0.913513514

Biodiesel (B20) gallon 127,250 0.90 gallons

Compressed Natural 

Gas (CNG)

cubic foot 900 126.67 cu. ft.

Liquid Natural Gas 

(LNG)

gallon 75,000 1.52 gallons

Propane (LPG) gallon 84,300 1.35 gallons

Ethanol (E100) gallon 76,100 1.50 gallons

0.666958808

Ethanol (E85) gallon 81,800 1.39 gallons

Methanol (M100) gallon 56,800 2.01 gallons

Methanol (M85) gallon 65,400 1.74 gallons

Electricity kilowatt hour 

(Kwh)

3,400 33.56 Kwhs

Energy Content Table
Percent BTU 

Difference

Adjustment 

Factor 

Biodiesel, 

Ethanol

0.086486486 1.09

0.333041192 1.50