United States General Accounting Office 

Washington, DC 20548 

September 30, 2003 

The Honorable Edolphus Towns 

House of Representatives 

Subject: Information Generally Not Available on Toy Gun Issues Related to Crime, 

Injuries or Deaths, and Long-Term Impact 

Dear Mr. Towns: 

This report responds to your request that we provide you with information on several 

issues related to the use of toy guns. Specifically, you asked that we (1) examine 

crime statistics showing the prevalence of crimes that involved toy guns in some 

capacity; (2) gather any available information on incidents involving toy guns that 

have resulted in injuries or deaths, whether or not related to criminal activity; and 

(3) determine from available literature whether there are any studies examining the 

long-term impacts that can be attributed to toy gun play by children. 

As agreed with your office, we focused our study on imitation or look-alike toy guns 

and excluded toy guns that fire projectiles, for example, BB guns, paintball guns, and 

pellet guns. To obtain relevant information, we conducted an extensive literature 

search using the Internet and other electronic resources to identify applicable 

statistics, reports, studies, articles, or other publications. In addition, we contacted 

federal officials at various agencies, including the Department of Justice’s Bureau of 

Justice Statistics (BJS), the Department of Health and Human Services’ Centers for 

Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Consumer Product Safety 

Commission (CPSC). Furthermore, we interviewed university researchers or 

academicians and contacted the counsel for the Toy Industry Association. We 

performed our work from May to August 2003 in accordance with generally accepted 

government auditing standards. Enclosure I presents more details on our objectives, 

scope, and methodology. 

Results in Brief 

Our study disclosed that scant data exist on the incidence of crimes, injuries, or 

deaths involving toy guns and on the long-term effects that childhood play with toy 

guns may have on individuals. Available data on crimes involving toy guns are dated 

and insufficient for providing a national perspective. Also, databases that collect 

information from hospital emergency rooms and other sources regarding productrelated injuries and deaths generally are not designed to capture information about 

incidents involving toy guns. Thus, the relatively few cases of such incidents that 

were recorded in these databases probably do not represent an accurate or 

GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns 
comprehensive reporting. Finally, our literature search found no publications or 

studies specifically addressing the long-term effects of childhood play with toy guns. 

Crimes Involving the Use of Toy Guns 

In response to our inquiries, officials at three of the Department of Justice 

components we contacted—the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and 

Explosives; the National Institute of Justice; and the Federal Bureau of 

Investigation—said they had no information about crimes involving the use of toy 

guns. Generally, the only data we found regarding the use of toy guns in crimes are 

presented in a June 1990 report—Toy Guns: Involvement in Crime & Encounters 

With Police—prepared by the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF), under a 

cooperative agreement with BJS.1

 In response to our inquiry, in June 2003, BJS 

informed us the agency has no current plans to sponsor or undertake a follow-up 

study to update the 1990 report. 

In conducting its study, PERF surveyed 699 state and local law enforcement agencies 

and received 458 usable responses (a response rate of 66 percent). PERF’s report 

does not include information on whether the nonrespondents differed in significant 

ways from the respondents. Without such information, it is not possible to determine 

if the lack of response from 34 percent of the agencies distorted the findings. 

Among other questions, the survey solicited information on the number of robberies 

and assaults that involved the use of toy guns during the period January 1, 1985, to 

September 1, 1989. According to PERF, police department reporting systems typically 

are not coded to identify the involvement of imitation or toy guns in crimes. As a 

result, most responding agencies provided information from either a manual records 

check or a solicitation of information from officers. Relying on officers’ memories 

may have resulted in either an under- or over-reporting of incidents involving toy 

guns. For the period January 1, 1985, to September 1, 1989, 

• 	 148 law enforcement agencies (32 percent of the 458 usable responses) reported a 

total of 2,796 robberies committed with the use of toy guns and 

• 	 121 law enforcement agencies (26 percent of the 458 usable responses) reported a 

total of 3,104 assaults committed with the use of toy guns. 

As a collateral issue, PERF also reported that—for the period January 1, 1985, to 

September 1, 1989—law enforcement agencies seized a total of 10,065 toy guns. 

According to PERF, this total does not include guns that were stolen property. 

Rather, the total consists only of those toy guns that were directly or indirectly 

involved in an incident—such as robbery, assault, domestic disturbance, suspicious 

person, etc.—where the police took some form of action. 

1

PERF is a national membership organization of police executives from the largest city, county, and state law enforcement 

agencies. 

Page 2 GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns 
The PERF researchers concluded that insufficient data were available to clearly 

determine whether the use of toy guns to commit crimes was a serious problem, 

particularly in comparison to all crimes of violence and police-involved shootings 

throughout the nation. As noted above, two factors—response rate issues and 

concerns about the reliability of information based to some extent on officers' recall 

of incidents—result in reservations about the findings. Enclosure II presents more 

details about PERF’s report. 

Injuries or Deaths Involving Toy Guns 

One way an injury or death could occur is for a police officer to mistake a toy gun for 

a real firearm. As part of PERF’s survey, researchers asked law enforcement agencies 

to report the number of incidents where officers had used actual force (deadly or less 

than deadly) based on the belief that a toy gun was real. For the study period (Jan. 1, 

1985, to Sep. 1, 1989), 31 law enforcement agencies (7 percent of the 458 usable 

responses) reported a total of 105 applicable incidents where officers had used actual 

force, either deadly or less than deadly (see table 3 in enc. II). PERF’s report did not 

specify how many of the 105 incidents resulted in injuries nor how many resulted in 

deaths. 

To further determine the availability of information on incidents involving toy guns 

that have resulted in injuries or deaths, whether or not related to criminal activity, we 

contacted two federal agencies—CPSC and CDC—that have databases with 

information on health and/or safety issues. At our request, CPSC officials reviewed 

the agency’s three major databases that provide information on product-related 

hazards, and the officials reported the following to us: 

• 	 National Electronic Injury Surveillance System. This system collects 

information and provides national estimates on the number of victims treated in 

hospital emergency rooms for product-related injuries. The entire system includes 

98 hospitals reporting almost 700,000 cases each year. For the period January 

2000 to July 2003, the database showed 301 incidents of injuries that resulted from 

many hazard patterns involving toy guns, including children swinging or throwing 

toy guns. According to CPSC, the 301 incidents encompass the broad category of 

toy guns—not just the limited category of replica guns. CPSC’s review of about 

100 of these incidents that involved victims aged 10 years or older disclosed no 

injury incidents in which police officers mistook toy guns for real firearms. 

• 	 Death Certificate System. This database contains records of death certificates 

for product-related deaths from each of the 50 states. The database excludes data 

on firearm-related deaths but may record deaths involving toy guns not caused by 

a firearm. For the most recent 10 years (1993 through 2002), the database showed 

no cases of deaths involving toy guns or situations where police officers mistook 

toy guns for real firearms. 

Page 3 GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns 
• 	 Incident Data Base. This data file contains records of cases received from news 

clips, medical examiner reports, consumer complaints, and reports from other 

sources. For the most recent 10 years (1993 through 2002), the data file showed 

four cases of individuals being fatally shot by police officers who mistook toy 

guns for real firearms. 

CPSC officials told us that these statistics on police shootings involving toy guns 

likely represent an undercounting of such incidents. The officials explained that 

CPSC would not generally collect data on police shootings because the agency’s 

focus is on consumer product issues rather than firearms. 

CDC is a data contributor and has inquiry access to CPSC’s National Electronic Injury 

Surveillance System. At our request, CDC officials reviewed the system’s database. 

For the 1 year reviewed (2001), the officials reported identifying 66 incidents 

involving toy guns. Of these 66 incidents, the majority (62) involved individuals 0 to 

19 years of age, and the remaining 4 incidents occurred among the over-19 age group. 

According to the CDC officials, of the 62 incidents among individuals 0 to 19 years 

old, 57 incidents involved unintentional injuries, such as choking on a toy gun part or 

being hit with toy gun or projectile part. The other 5 incidents apparently were 

reported to the police as being assaults and involved children hitting other children 

with a toy gun while fighting or engaging in rough play. CDC officials described these 

5 incidents as follows: 

• A 13-year old child was hit on head with a plastic gun. 

• A 12-year old female was hit on the elbow by a toy gun. 

• A 12-year old male was injured in a fight involving a toy gun. 

• A 7-year old was poked in the right eye with a plastic gun. 

• An individual was struck on the head by a toy gun. 

Also, CDC officials told us that the agency’s National Violent Death Reporting System 

(NVDRS)—being designed to collect information on all violent deaths, including 

those involving toy guns—was not yet operational. The officials referred us to 

Harvard University’s National Violent Injury Statistics System (NVISS), which is a 

pilot program for CDC’s NVDRS and encompasses 12 sites nationwide.2

 The codirector of the pilot program told us that the NVISS database contained information 

for 2 years (2000 and 2001) but does not include a variable to facilitate an electronic 

search for injuries or deaths involving toy gun incidents. Nevertheless, the co-director 

responded to our questions based on her knowledge of the database and her review 

of the more recent year’s (2001) data for 7 sites—Connecticut, Maine, Wisconsin, 

Utah, San Francisco, Miami-Dade County, and Allegany County. For the 2001 data, 

the co-director reported finding no deaths involving toy guns. In addition, the 

2

The 12 sites consist of 6 states (Connecticut, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Utah); 


5 metropolitan areas or counties—Atlanta (Ga.), Detroit (Mich.), Miami-Dade County (Fla.), Allegany County (Pa.), and 


San Francisco (Cal.)—and 1 pilot (conducted by the University of Pennsylvania) collectively covering three metropolitan 


areas—Bethlehem (Pa.), Youngstown (Ohio), and Iowa City (Iowa).


Page 4 GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns 
co-director did not recall seeing any toy gun-related deaths in the first year’s (2000) 

data. 

Our literature search found that, in 1987, the American Academy of Pediatrics’ 

Committee on Accident and Poison Prevention issued a policy statement, which said 

that, “The main hazard presented by nonprojectile toy guns is that children who play 

with them may inadvertently be drawn to playing with real weapons which they 

mistake for toys.”3

 The policy statement recommended that pediatricians counsel 

parents concerning the hazards of having toy guns in the house. 

Long-Term Effects of Childhood Play with Toy Guns 

Our literature search of social science, scientific, educational, crime and justice, and 

other journals and publications disclosed no authoritative study on the possible longterm effects on individuals of childhood play with toy guns. Generally, the literature 

discussed numerous possible causes of aggressive behavior, including exposure to 

violence in video games and television, and did not focus specifically on childhood 

play with toy guns. 

One exception we found was a 1992 Brandeis University study, entitled “The Relation 

Between Toy Gun Play and Children’s Aggressive Behavior.”4

 The study was based on 

a small number of preschoolers in one daycare center and found limited evidence 

that toy gun play was associated with increased real aggression and with decreased 

pretend aggression in free-play settings. However, due to the small number of 

children involved, all from one location and in one setting, the results are not 

generalizable to other children. Further, the analytical method used may have 

overstated the significance of the association between toy gun play and aggression. In 

addition, the study did not examine whether longer-term associations between toy 

gun play and future aggression are likely. 

Furthermore, we contacted the senior scientific editor of a 2001 report—Youth 

Violence: A Report of the Surgeon General—to discuss the extent, if any, that the 

study addressed or considered the long-term impacts attributable to toy gun play by 

children.5

 This individual said that the Surgeon General’s study focused on violence 

involving real firearms and did not consider toy gun issues. He expressed 

unawareness of any research on the long-term effects of childhood play with toy 

guns. 

Agency Comments 

We provided a draft of this report for comment to the Department of Justice, the 

Department of Health and Human Services, and CPSC. During the period September 

17-25, 2003, we received written or oral comments from these agencies. The 

3

American Academy of Pediatrics, “Injuries Related to ‘Toy’ Firearms” (RE7085), Pediatrics, Volume 79, Number 3 (Mar. 1987).
 4

Malcolm W. Watson and Ying Peng, Brandeis University, “The Relation Between Toy Gun Play and Children’s Aggressive


Behavior,” Early Education and Development, Volume 3, Number 4 (Oct. 1992).
 5

Youth Violence: A Report of the Surgeon General, U.S. Public Health Service (Washington, D.C.: Jan. 2001).


Page 5 GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns 
comments indicated that the draft accurately presented the information that we had 

obtained from the respective agency. Also, the Department of Health and Human 

Services (including CDC) and CPSC provided technical clarifications, which we 

incorporated in this report where appropriate. 

_ _ _ _ _ 

As agreed with your office, unless you publicly announce its contents earlier, we plan 


no further distribution of this report until 30 days after its issue date. At that time, we 


will provide copies to the Attorney General, the Secretary of Health and Human 


Services, and the Executive Director of CPSC. We will also make copies available to 


others on request. 


If you have any questions about this report, please contact me at (202) 512-8777 or 


Assistant Director, Danny R. Burton, at (214) 777-5600. Other key contributors to this 


report were Fredrick D. Berry, Ann H. Finley, SaraAnn W. Moessbauer, 


Julia A. Rachiele, Miguel A. Salas, and Susan B. Wallace. 


Sincerely yours, 


Laurie E. Ekstrand 


Director, Homeland Security and Justice Issues 


Enclosures-2 


Page 6 GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns 
Enclosure I 

Objectives, Scope, and Methodology 

Objectives 

Representative Edolphus Towns asked us to (1) examine crime statistics showing the 

prevalence of crimes that involved toy guns in some capacity; (2) gather any available 

information on incidents involving toy guns that have resulted in injuries or deaths, 

whether or not related to criminal activity; and (3) determine from available literature 

whether there are any studies examining the long-term impacts that can be attributed 

to toy gun play by children. 

Scope and Methodology 

As agreed with the requester’s office, we focused our study on imitation or look-alike 

toy guns and excluded toy guns that fire projectiles, for example, BB guns, paintball 

guns, and pellet guns. To obtain relevant information, we conducted a literature 

search using the Internet and other electronic resources to identify applicable 

statistics, reports, studies, articles, or other publications. Specifically, we used 

keywords/key phrases to search the following three major sources: 

• 	 Dialog. Dialog provides access to over 800 databases covering scientific and 

technical literature, trade journals, and newswires. Our search covered the period 

January 1, 1990, to July 10, 2003. 

• 	 Nexis. Nexis provides access to news stories in major U.S. newspapers. Our 

search covered the period January 1, 2000, to July 11, 2003. 

• 	 Nexis’ Statistical Universe. This source provides access to three data files—(1) 

the American Statistics Index, which covers statistical publications of the U.S. 

government; (2) the Statistical Reference Index, which covers statistical 

publications from sources other than the U.S. government; and (3) the Index to 

International Statistics, which covers international publications. Our search of 

these three data files covered the periods beginning in 1973, 1980, and 1983, 

respectively, to July 31, 2003. 

In addition to the literature search, we contacted various federal agencies, university 

researchers or academicians, and a representative of the Toy Industry Association 

(see table 1). 

Page 7 GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns 
Enclosure I 

Table 1: Federal Agencies, Universities, and the Trade Association GAO Contacted 

Federal agencies Position of person contacted 

Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and 

Explosives 

Audit Liaison 

Bureau of Justice Statistics Statistical Policy Advisor for Bureau of Justice 

Statistics 

Director, Office of Statistics and Programming 

Deputy Director; Office of Policy, Evaluation, and 

Legislation 

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention— 

National Center for Injury Prevention and Control 

Medical Epidemiologist, Division of Violence 

Prevention 

Executive Director 

Deputy Executive Director 

Assistant Executive Director for Hazard Identification 

and Reduction 

Program Manager, Hazard Identification and 

Reduction 

Consumer Product Safety Commission 

Director, Data Systems - Epidemiology 

Federal Bureau of Investigation Attorney Liaison 

National Institute of Justice Audit Liaison, Office of Justice Programs 

Universitiesa 

University of California, Davis (Davis, Cal.) Director, Violence Prevention Research Program 

(Sacramento, Cal.) 

University of Central Florida (Orlando, Fla.) Provost Distinguished Research Professor, 

Department of Sociology and Anthropology 

University of Colorado (Boulder, Colo.) Director, Center for the Study and Prevention of 

Violence, Institute of Behavioral Science b 

Harvard University (Boston, Mass.) Co-Director, National Violent Injury Statistics System 

University of Georgia (Athens, Ga.) Associate Professor, Department of Health Promotion 

and Behavior 

New York University School of Law (New York, N.Y.) Director, Center for Research in Crime and Justice 

Trade association 

Toy Industry Association (New York, N.Y.) Counsel 

Source: GAO. 

a

Our contacts with universities were based on suggestions made by federal agency officials and the results of our literature 

search. 

b

This university official served as the senior scientific editor for the Surgeon General’s 2001 report on youth violence. 

Crime Statistics Involving Toy Guns 

To determine the availability of statistics regarding the prevalence of crimes that 

involved toy guns in some capacity, we contacted the following Department of 

Justice components: 

• 	 Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). We followed-up on the results of our 

literature search, which identified a June 1990 report (Toy Guns: Involvement in 

Crime & Encounters with Police) prepared by the Police Executive Research 

Forum, under a cooperative agreement with BJS (see enc. II). 

Page 8 GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns 
Enclosure I 

• 	 National Institute of Justice (NIJ). NIJ is the research, development, and 

evaluation agency of the Department of Justice. 

• 	 Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). We inquired whether the Uniform 

Crime Reporting Program collected any information involving toy gun incidents. 

• 	 Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF). We inquired 

whether the agency’s “Youth Crime Interdiction Initiative” collected any 

information involving toy gun incidents. 

Toy Gun Incidents Resulting in Injuries or Deaths 

To determine the availability of information on incidents involving toy guns that have 

resulted in injuries or deaths, whether or not related to criminal activity, we 

contacted two federal agencies—the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) 

and the Department of Health and Human Services’ Centers for Disease Control and 

Prevention (CDC). These agencies collect data on health and safety issues in several 

databases. 

At our request, CPSC officials reviewed the agency’s three major surveillance 

databases that provide information on product-related hazards: 

• 	 National Electronic Injury Surveillance System. This system collects 

information and provides national estimates on the number of victims treated in 

hospital emergency rooms for product-related injuries. From this database, CPSC 

officials reviewed cases from January 2000 to July 2003. 

• 	 Death Certificate System. This database contains records of death certificates 

for product-related deaths from each of the 50 states. CPSC officials reviewed 

cases reported during the previous 10 years (1993 through 2002). 

• 	 Incident Data Base. This data file contains records of cases received from news 

clips, medical examiner reports, consumer complaints, and reports from other 

sources. CPSC officials reviewed cases reported during the previous 10 years 

(1993 through 2002). 

Regarding these databases, CPSC officials noted that statistics on police shootings 

involving toy guns likely represent an undercounting of such incidents. The officials 

explained that CPSC would not generally collect data on police shootings because the 

agency’s focus is on consumer product issues rather than firearms. 

We contacted CDC to inquire whether its National Violent Death Reporting System 

(NVDRS) had relevant information. Officials at CDC’s National Center for Injury 

Page 9 GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns 
Enclosure I 

Prevention and Control told us that the system was not yet operational but eventually 

would collect national information on all violent deaths, including firearms-related 

deaths and those involving toy guns. 

The CDC officials referred us to Harvard University’s National Violent Injury 

Statistics System (NVISS), which is a pilot program for CDC’s NVDRS and 6 encompasses 12 sites nationwide. The co-director of the pilot program told us that 

the NVISS database contains information for 2 years (2000 and 2001) but does not 

include a variable to facilitate an electronic search for injuries or deaths involving toy 

gun incidents. Nevertheless, the co-director responded to our questions based on her 

knowledge of the database and her review of data for 7 sites for 2001.7 

Long-Term Impacts Attributed to Toy Gun Play by Children 

As previously indicated, to determine the availability of studies examining the longterm impacts that can be attributed to toy gun play by children, we conducted a 

literature search and contacted various federal agencies, university researchers or 

academicians, and a representative of the Toy Industry Association. We focused our 

analysis on the following potentially relevant study that we identified: 

• 	 Watson, Malcolm W., and Ying Peng. Brandeis University. “The Relation Between 

Toy Gun Play and Children’s Aggressive Behavior.” Early Education and 

Development (Volume 3, Number 4, Oct. 1992): 370-389. 

Two of our social scientists examined the study to assess the adequacy of samples 

and measures employed, the reasonableness and rigor of the statistical techniques 

used to analyze them, and the validity of the results and conclusions. 

Also, we contacted the senior scientific editor of a 2001 report—Youth Violence: A 

Report of the Surgeon General—to discuss the extent, if any, that the study 

addressed or considered the long-term impacts attributable to toy gun play by 

children.8 

6

The 12 NVISS sites consist of 6 states (Connecticut, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Utah); 5 metropolitan areas or 


counties—Atlanta (Ga.), Detroit (Mich.), Miami-Dade County (Fla.), Allegany County (Pa.), and San Francisco (Cal.)—and 


1 pilot (conducted by the University of Pennsylvania) collectively covering three metropolitan areas—Bethlehem (Pa.),


Youngstown (Ohio), and Iowa City (Iowa).
 7

The co-director’s review covered the following 7 sites: Connecticut, Maine, Wisconsin, Utah, San Francisco, Miami-Dade


County, and Allegany County. 
 8

Youth Violence: A Report of the Surgeon General, U.S. Public Health Service (Washington, D.C.: Jan. 2001). The report is 


available on the Surgeon General’s Web site at http://surgeongeneral.gov/library/youthviolence/.


Page 10 GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns 
Enclosure II 

June 1990 Report on Toy Guns, Crime, and Police Encounters 

Public Law 100-615 (Nov. 5, 1988) required that toy guns have a “blaze orange plug 

inserted in the barrel” to minimize the probability of such guns being mistaken for 

real firearms. Also, the federal legislation required that the Department of Justice’s 

Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) conduct a study of the criminal misuse of toy guns, 

including studying police reports of such incidents. Effective June 1, 1989, BJS 

awarded a cooperative agreement to the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF) to 

conduct the study. 9 In June 1990, PERF reported on the results of its study—Toy 

Guns: Involvement In Crime & Encounters With Police. 

Regarding the overall significance of toy guns and crime, PERF reported that there is 

no clear answer to the question, “How serious is the problem?” The report noted that: 

• “The response is a value judgment based upon one’s ideology and experiences.” 

• 	 “In comparison to all crimes of violence and police-involved shootings throughout 

the United States, the proportion of cases involving imitation guns is small. The 

nagging element of the ‘toy gun’ problem is that many of the incidents seem 

particularly tragic—a child is involved, a mentally disturbed person does not 

recognize the gravity of his/her actions, or a person simply used poor judgment.” 

In response to our inquiry, in June 2003, BJS officials told us that BJS had no current 

plans to sponsor or undertake a follow-up study to update the information. 

Scope and Methodology of PERF’s Study 

Initially, to ascertain issues and trends, PERF conducted a Lexis/Nexis computer 

search for news stories reporting any imitation gun incidents. PERF reported that its 

research methods also included developing and sending a survey instrument to 699 

agencies in the study population—that is, all municipal police and consolidated 

police departments serving populations of 50,000 or more, all sheriff’s departments 

with 100 or more sworn employees, and all primary state police agencies.10 According 

to PERF, the usable response rate was 65.5 percent (458 responses). The PERF 

report does not include information on whether the nonrespondents differed in 

significant ways from the respondents. Without such information, it is not possible to 

determine if the lack of response from 34 percent of the agencies distorted the 

findings. 

9

PERF is a national membership organization of police executives from the largest city, county, and state law enforcement 


agencies. Incorporated in 1977, PERF's objectives are to improve policing and advance professionalism through research and 


involvement in public policy debate.
 10Also, according to PERF, site visits were made to 27 agencies, which were selected based partly on news reports and/or self-


reports indicating experiences with imitation gun incidents. 


Page 11 GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns 
Enclosure II 

Questions in the survey instrument solicited information on (1) robberies and 

assaults that involved the use of imitation guns and (2) experiences of officers using 

deadly force and less than deadly force against individuals with imitation guns.11 

Data Limitations Acknowledged by PERF 

In its report, PERF acknowledged that quantitative data were difficult to obtain. 

Specifically, PERF reported that: 

“The questions for this survey were extraordinarily difficult for the law enforcement agencies to 

answer simply because police departments typically do not maintain data stratified by the identifying 

character of ‘toy gun’ (or similar notation). As a result, most agencies resorted to some form of manual 

records check and/or solicitation of information from officers.” 

“The data presented in this report were not easily generated by the responding departments. Many 

police agencies conducted manual searches of their incident reports, others physically searched 

property room records, while others went through the laborious process of surveying their officers and 

then developing responses to our questions. Thus, while the data in this report may not be as robust as 

we initially hoped, it represents the most comprehensive information available on the subject.” 

Nonetheless, relying solely on officers’ memories in some instances may have 

resulted in either an under- or over-reporting of incidents involving imitation guns. 

Study Results Reported by PERF 

As mentioned previously, questions in PERF’s survey instrument solicited 

information on (1) robberies and assaults that involved use of imitation guns and 

(2) experiences of officers using deadly force and less than deadly force against 

individuals with imitation guns. 

Robberies and Assaults Using Toy Guns 

PERF’s report presented data for 4-2/3 years—1985 through 8 months of 1989—on the 

numbers of robberies and assaults involving toy guns. As table 2 shows, the reported 

number of robberies totaled 2,796 during this period. 

11PERF reported results separately for three categories of imitation guns—toy guns (intended for playing), pneumatic guns (such 

as BB and pellet guns), and replica guns (inoperable reproductions of actual weapons). The data presented in tables 2 and 3 in 

this enclosure cover toy guns only. 

Page 12 GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns 
Enclosure II 

Table 2: Number of Robberies and Assaults Committed Involving Toy Guns (Jan. 1, 1985 to Sep. 1, 1989) 

Calendar year 

Number of robberies and assaults committed involving toy guns 

Robberiesa Assaultsb 

1985 453 635 

1986 482 615 

1987 665 601 

1988 753 686 

1989 (8 months) 443 567 

Total 2,796 3,104 

Source: Police Executive Research Forum, Toy Guns: Involvement in Crime & Encounters with Police, June 1990, pp. 29 and 

32. 

a

Based on 148 police agencies reporting robberies known to have been committed with a toy gun. 

b

Based on 121police agencies reporting assaults known to have been committed with a toy gun. 

Based partly on these data, PERF reported that survey results “show that robberies 

by imitation guns are occurring on a daily basis in the United States ...”. Also, PERF 

reported that: 

“Because of poor record keeping on imitation gun robberies, the fact that the estimates of 

investigators are experiential rather than empirical, and the inherent methodological differences 

between the UCR [Uniform Crime Reporting Program] and this study, the authors feel that estimating 

the number of imitation gun robberies from those reported in the UCR would have limited value.” 

Also, table 2 shows that the reported number of assaults committed with toy guns 

totaled 3,104 during the period. PERF reported that: 

“While it is conceivable that a person could be physically assailed with an imitation gun, the more 

likely crime is the ‘simple assault’ where a person is threatened and in fear of injury. ... No 

meaningful comparisons can be made between these findings and the Uniform Crime Report assault 

data since the UCR statistics reflect only aggravated assaults.” 

Use of Force Incidents Involving Toy Guns 

As part of PERF’s survey, researchers also asked law enforcement agencies to report 

the number of incidents where officers had warned, threatened, or actually used 

force in a confrontation where an imitation gun had been mistaken for a real gun. As 

table 3 shows, for the period January 1, 1985, to September 1, 1989: 

• 	 The number of incidents totaled 385 where an officer warned or threatened the 

use of force based on the belief that a toy gun was real. 

• 	 The number of incidents totaled 105 where an officer used actual force based on 

the belief that a toy gun was real. 

Page 13 GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns 
Enclosure II 

Table 3: Number of Incidents Where Police Officers Warned of Using or Actually Used Force Based on 

the Belief That a Toy Gun Was Real (Jan. 1, 1985 to Sep. 1, 1989) 

Calendar year 

Number of incidents where an officer 

warned or threatened the use of force 

based on the belief that a toy gun was reala 

Number of incidents where an officer 

used actual force (deadly or less than 

deadly) based on the belief that a toy 

gun was realb 

1985 55 6 

1986 61 7 

1987 72 45 

1988 106 31 

1989 (8 months) 91 16 

Total 385 105 

Source: Police Executive Research Forum, Toy Guns: Involvement in Crime & Encounters with Police, June 1990, pp. 34 and 

35. 

a

Based on 82 agencies reporting incidents known to have been committed with a toy gun. 

b

Based on 31 agencies reporting incidents known to have been committed with a toy gun. 

Regarding the 105 incidents involving actual use of force, PERF reported that “... it is 

probable that the data are more accurate since internal investigations typically follow 

the use of force.” 

(440210) 


Page 14 GAO-03-1135R Use of Toy Guns