2020 CENSUS

Sustaining Current Reform 

Efforts Will Be Key to a 

More Cost-Effective 

Enumeration 

Statement of Robert Goldenkoff

Director

Strategic Issues

Testimony 

Before the Subcommittee on Federal Financial 

Management, Government Information, Federal Services, 

and International Security, Committee on Homeland 

Security and Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate

For Release on Delivery 

Expected at 2:30 p.m. EDT

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

GAO-12-905T

United States Government Accountability Office

GAO
United States Government Accountability Office

Highlights of GAO-12-905T, a testimony 

before the Subcommittee on Federal Financial 

Management, Government Information, 

Federal Services, and International Security, 

Committee on Homeland Security and 

Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate 

July 18, 2012 

2020 CENSUS

Sustaining Current Reform Efforts Will Be Key to a 

More Cost-Effective Enumeration

Why GAO Did This Study

Obtaining an accurate census in the 

face of societal trends such as 

increased privacy concerns and a 

more diverse population has greatly 

increased the cost of the census. At 

$13 billion, 2010 was the costliest 

census in U.S. history. Without 

changes, future enumerations could be 

fiscally unsustainable. GAO’s past 

work noted that early planning, leading 

management practices, and strong 

congressional oversight, can help 

reduce the costs and risks of the 

enumeration. GAO also identified four 

key lessons learned from 2010 that 

could help secure a more cost-effective 

2020 Census. The Bureau agreed and 

is taking steps to address them. As 

requested, this testimony focuses on 

the Bureau’s progress on these 

lessons learned and what remains to 

be done going forward. It is based on 

GAO’s completed work, including an 

analysis of Bureau documents, 

interviews with Bureau officials, and 

field observations of census operations 

in urban and rural locations across the 

country.

What GAO Recommends

GAO is not making new 

recommendations in this testimony, but 

past reports recommended that the 

Bureau strengthen its testing of key IT 

systems, develop policies and 

procedures for its cost estimates, and 

take actions to make 2020 Census 

planning more consistent with leading 

management practices. The Bureau 

generally agreed with GAO’s findings 

and recommendations and is taking 

steps to implement them.

What GAO Found

Overall, the U.S. Census Bureau’s (Bureau) planning efforts for 2020 are off to a 

good start, as the Bureau made noteworthy progress within each of the four 

lessons learned from the 2010 Census. Still, additional steps will be needed 

within each of the lessons learned in order to sustain those reforms. 

1. Reexamine the nation’s approach to taking the Census. The Bureau has 

used a similar approach to count most of the population for decades. However, 

the approach has not kept pace with changes to society. Moving forward, the 

Bureau has begun to rethink its approach to planning, testing, implementing, and 

monitoring the census. For example, the Bureau is researching how it can use 

administrative records, such as data from other government agencies, to locate 

and count people including nonrespondents. Use of administrative records could 

help reduce the cost of field operations, but data quality and access issues must 

first be resolved. 

2. Assess and refine existing operations focusing on tailoring them to 

specific locations and population groups. The 2010 Census had several 

operations tailored to specific population groups or locales. For example, the 

Bureau mailed bilingual English/Spanish forms to some areas and sent a second 

questionnaire to areas with historically lower response rates. Preliminary 

evaluations show these targeted efforts contributed to an increased awareness of 

the census and higher mail-back response rates. For 2020, the Bureau is 

considering expanding these efforts. Designing future studies to better isolate the 

return on investment of key census operations would help the Bureau further 

target its operations to specific population groups and locations and potentially 

gain significant cost savings. 

3. Institutionalize efforts to address high-risk areas. Focus areas for the 

Bureau include improving its ability to manage information technology (IT) 

investments and develop a reliable cost estimates. In January 2012, GAO 

reported that the Bureau did not have policies and procedures for developing the 

2020 Census cost estimate. In moving forward, it will be important for the Bureau 

to improve its IT acquisition management policies and develop better guidance to 

produce more reliable cost estimates. 

4. Ensure that the Bureau’s management, culture, and business practices 

align with a cost-effective enumeration. In May 2012, GAO reported that the 

Bureau’s early planning efforts for the 2020 Census were consistent with most 

leading practices for organizational transformation, long term planning, and 

strategic workforce planning. Nevertheless, GAO found that additional steps 

could be taken to build on these early efforts. For example, the Bureau’s 

schedule does not include milestones for key decisions to support the transition 

between planning phases. These milestones are important and could help with 

later downstream planning.

View GAO-12-905T or key components. For 

more information, contact Robert Goldenkoff 

at (202) 512-2757 or goldenkoffr@gao.gov. 
 

Page 1 GAO-12-905T 

Chairman Carper, Ranking Member Brown, and Members of the 

Subcommittee:

I am pleased to be here today to provide a progress report on the U.S. 

Census Bureau’s (Bureau) planning and reform initiatives for the 2020 

Census. As you well know, the nation’s population has been growing 

steadily larger, more diverse, increasingly difficult to count, and less 

willing to participate in the census. The bottom line is that securing an 

accurate count in the face of these trends has greatly raised the difficulty 

and cost of the enumeration. Unless changes to the census are made 

going forward, future headcounts could be fiscally unsustainable.

With a life-cycle cost of around $13 billion, the 2010 Census was the most 

expensive population count in U.S. history, costing over 50 percent more 

than the $8.1 billion 2000 Census (in constant 2010 dollars). While some 

cost growth is to be expected, in part because there are more people to 

count with each decennial, enumeration costs grew more than three times 

faster than the workload between 2000 and 2010 with a 39 percent 

increase in costs to count each housing unit compared to a 12 percent 

increase in workload. These trends do not bode well for future costs. 

Indeed, the Bureau estimates that if it used the same approach to count 

people in 2020 as it did in 2010, it would cost $151 to count each housing 

unit compared to 2010’s $97 (assuming real costs grow at the same rate 

they did between 1990 and 2010).

Moreover, as shown in figure 1, while census costs have steadily 

increased since 1970, the mail response rate—a key performance 

measure because of its implications for both cost and accuracy—declined 

over this same period from 78 percent in 1970 to around 63 percent in 

2010.

 
 

Page 2 GAO-12-905T 

Figure 1: The Average Cost of Counting Each Housing Unit Escalated Each Decade 

While Mail Response Rates Declined

a

The 2010 life cycle runs from 2002 through 2013, meaning that costs for the 2010 Census are not 

yet final. 

b

In the 2010 Census, the Bureau used only a short-form questionnaire. For this report, we use the 

1990 and 2000 Census short-form mail response rate when comparing 1990, 2000, and 2010 mailback response rates. Census short-form mail response rates are unavailable for 1970 and 1980, so 

we use the overall response rate for both the short- and long-form questionnaires. 

In terms of quality, a post-census Bureau evaluation found that the 2010 

Census generally accurately counted the total population of the country 

as well as each state. As in past enumerations, renters, young children, 

young adult males, Blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians on 

reservations were more likely to be undercounted, while home owners, 

older persons, females, and White non-Hispanics were more likely to be 

included more than once in the census. Moreover, despite some 

significant initial setbacks that raised the cost of the enumeration, the 

Bureau eventually developed workarounds to the challenges facing the 

2010 Census and it was ultimately an operational success as the Bureau 

generally completed its peak census data collection activities consistent 

with its plans and released the state population counts used to apportion 

Congress on December 21, 2010, several days ahead of the legally 

mandated end-of-year deadline.
 

Page 3 GAO-12-905T 

Mr. Chairman, these trends, facts, and figures all point to one simple fact: 

the basic design of the decennial census—mail-out and mail-back of the 

census form with in-person follow-up for nonrespondents (the same 

general approach the Bureau has used since 1970)—is no longer capable 

of a cost-effective enumeration. Thus, going forward, the singular 

challenge for Bureau officials will be balancing the need to control the 

cost of future enumerations with the need to assure their accuracy.

The Bureau is well aware of the need for reforms, and its business plan—

which describes its efforts for the early research and testing phase of the 

2020 Census—notes that the Bureau is committed to conducting a 

census that costs no more than the approximately $100 per housing unit 

that was spent on the 2010 Census, and has already developed six broad 

design alternatives for 2020. This is a noteworthy goal. However, fulfilling 

it will be an ambitious task as the Bureau’s research and planning efforts 

over the next few years will take place in an uncertain environment owing 

to the extent and magnitude of the reforms being considered, budget 

constraints, and the planned August 2012 resignation of the current 

Bureau Director with the likelihood that it may be a number of months 

before a permanent replacement takes office.

When we last testified before this Subcommittee in April 2011, we 

discussed four lessons learned from the 2010 and earlier decennials that 

could help secure a more cost-effective enumeration in 2020.1

1. reexamining the nation’s approach to taking the census;

They 

included:

2. assessing and refining existing operations, tailoring them to specific 

locations and population groups;

3. institutionalizing efforts to address high-risk areas; and

4. ensuring that the Bureau’s management, culture, and business 

practices align with a cost-effective enumeration.

The Bureau generally agreed with these lessons and is taking steps to 

address them. As requested, in my remarks today, I will focus on the 

Bureau’s progress in each area and what remains to be done going 

forward. In summary, while the Bureau’s preparations are off to a good 

start—as evidenced, for example, by its use of leading practices in such 

 

1

GAO, 2010 Census: Preliminary Lesson Learned Highlight the Need for Fundamental 

Reforms, GAO-11-496T (Washington, D.C.: Apr. 6, 2011).
 

Page 4 GAO-12-905T 

key management areas as organizational transformation, long-term 

project planning, and strategic workforce planning, moving forward, 

sustaining those efforts, focusing on priorities, winnowing down design 

options, and keeping the entire enterprise on-track—all within tight 

timeframes—will be a tremendous challenge. Furthermore, it will be 

important for Congress to hold the Bureau accountable for results through 

strong and continuing involvement in preparations for the 2020 Census, 

including weighing in on key Bureau decisions and providing the 

necessary funding.

My testimony today is based on our completed work related to key 2010 

Census operations, on 2010 Census cost drivers and the 2020 life-cycle 

cost estimate, and the Bureau’s planning efforts for 2020.2

Additionally, for our work on 2010 operations, we made on-site 

observations of key census-taking activities across the country including 

such urban locations as Los Angeles, California; Atlanta, Georgia; 

Brooklyn, New York; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; New Orleans, 

Louisiana; and Washington, D.C.; as well as such less populated areas 

as Meridian, Mississippi, and New Castle, Delaware. We selected these 

locations because of their geographic and demographic diversity, among 

other factors. More detail on our scope and methodology is provided in 

each of our issued products.

For this body 

of work, we analyzed key documents—such as budgets, plans, 

procedures, and guidance—for selected decennial activities; interviewed 

cognizant Bureau officials; reviewed existing leading practices for 

organizational transformation, long-term project planning, and workforce 

planning that we and other organizations have previously developed; and 

identified leading practices that are most relevant to the Bureau’s early 

planning for the 2020 Census.

On June 29, 2012, we provided the Bureau with a statement of facts 

related to the information included in this statement, and Bureau officials 

provided technical comments, which we included as appropriate. The 

work on which this statement is based was conducted in accordance with 

generally accepted government auditing standards. Those standards 

require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate 

evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions 

 

2

See related GAO products at the end of this statement. 
 

Page 5 GAO-12-905T 

based on our audit objectives. We believe that the evidence obtained 

provides a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on 

our audit objectives.

At first glance, it might seem premature to discuss preparations for the 

decennial census; after all, Census Day, April 1, 2020, is still almost 8 

years away. However, our reviews of the 1990, 2000, and the 2010 

Censuses have shown that early planning, the use of leading 

management practices, and strong congressional oversight can help 

reduce the costs and risks of the national headcount. Indeed, the 

characteristics of the decennial census—long-term, large-scale, complex, 

high-risk, and politically sensitive—together make a cost-effective 

enumeration of the nation’s population and housing a monumental 

project-planning and management challenge.

Despite the complexity, cost, and importance of the census, however, 

recent enumerations were not planned well. Indeed, shortcomings with 

managing and planning the 2000 and 2010 enumerations led to 

acquisition problems, cost overruns, and other issues, and, as a result, 

we placed both enumerations on our list of high-risk programs.3

For example, leading up to the 2010 Census, we found that additional 

costs and risks associated with the data capture technologies used in the 

2010 Census were related to a failure to adequately link specifications for 

key information technology systems to requirements.4

Importantly, some of the operational problems that occurred during the 

2010 and prior censuses are symptomatic of deeper organizational 

issues. For example, a Bureau self-assessment carried out in October 

2008 found that its organizational structure made overseeing a large 

Additionally, the 

lack of skilled cost estimators for the 2010 Census led to unreliable lifecycle cost estimates, and some key operations were not tested under 

census-like conditions.

 

3

GAO, Information Technology: Significant Problems of Critical Automation Program 

Contribute to Risks Facing 2010 Census, GAO-08-550T (Washington, D.C. Mar. 5, 2008), 

and High-Risk Series: Quick Reference Guide, GAO/HR-97-2 (Washington, D.C.: 

February 1997).

4

GAO, Information Technology: Census Bureau Needs to Improve Its Risk Management 

of Decennial Systems, GAO-08-79 (Washington, D.C.: Oct. 5, 2007).

Background
 

Page 6 GAO-12-905T 

program difficult and hampered accountability, succession planning, and 

staff development.

Since then, we and other organizations—including the Bureau itself—

have stated that fundamental changes to the design, implementation, and 

management of the census must be made in order to address these 

operational and organizational challenges.5

Although bold reform plans are critical steps in the right direction, the 

Bureau’s past experience has shown that the more difficult challenge will 

be sustaining those efforts throughout the course of the decade. Indeed, 

preparations for both the 2000 and 2010 Censuses started with ambitious 

plans that gave reason for optimism that major improvements were on the 

way. However, in the subsequent ramp-up to those enumerations, the 

Bureau had difficulty identifying and implementing promising innovations, 

progress on reforms slowed, and as Census Day drew closer, the 

success of those head-counts became an open question.

For its part, the Bureau has 

stated that to contain costs and maintain quality, bold innovations in both 

planning and design of the 2020 Census will be required, and has 

launched a number of change initiatives. Some of these efforts are 

directed at transforming the Bureau’s organization, while others focus on 

reexamining the fundamental approach to the 2020 Census.

In our April 2011 testimony, we noted that based on the results of prior 

enumerations, simply refining current methods—some of which have 

been in place for decades—will not bring about the reforms needed to 

control costs while maintaining accuracy given ongoing and newly 

emerging societal trends such as concerns over personal privacy and an 

increasingly diverse population.6

 

5

Consequently, the Bureau will need to 

reconsider the nation’s approach to the census including rethinking such 

activities as how it plans, tests, implements, monitors, and evaluates 

enumeration activities. The Bureau concurred and its 2020 Census 

business plan states that the Bureau needs substantial innovation to 

achieve its cost and quality targets and to meet its strategic goals.

GAO-11-496T. 

6

GAO-11-496T. 

Lesson Learned 1: 

Reexamine the 

Nation’s Approach to 

Taking the Census
 

Page 7 GAO-12-905T 

As one example, with respect to its research and testing efforts, the 

Bureau plans to use the American Community Survey—an ongoing 

Bureau survey of population and housing characteristics that is 

administered monthly throughout the decade—as a vehicle to test certain 

decennial census processes and information technology (IT) systems. 

According to the Bureau, this approach will enable it to conduct many 

small tests throughout the decade in a production environment instead of 

relying on a small number of large, expensive tests as was the case in 

past decennial planning cycles. According to the Bureau, refining systems 

in the American Community Survey reduces the risk of building one-use 

systems for the decennial that need to operate flawlessly the first time 

they are put into production.

With respect to implementing the census, among other activities, the 

Bureau is researching potential electronic methods of promoting the 

census and collecting data, including with the Internet via social 

networking sites, e-mail, and text messages, as well as with automated 

phone systems. For the 2010 Census, the Bureau initially investigated the 

use of an Internet response option but dropped plans based on concerns 

over information technology security, and after completing a cost-benefit 

analysis that led the Bureau to conclude that Internet data collection 

would not significantly improve the overall response rate or reduce field 

data collection.

The Bureau is also researching how it can use administrative records to 

reduce the cost of certain decennial activities. Administrative records from 

government agencies, including driver licenses and school records, can 

be used to identify persons associated with a particular household 

address. Administrative records could save the Bureau money because 

they could help reduce the need for certain costly and labor-intensive 

door-to-door visits by Bureau employees to collect data in-person from 

non-respondents. During the 2010 Census, the Bureau made only limited 

use of administrative records. Expanding their use to supplement 

respondent data on a national level will present a certain degree of risk, 

and issues concerning data quality and access to records must first be 

resolved.

With so many innovations underway at the Bureau, strong and continuing 

stewardship at the senior level will be critical for ensuring they stay on 

track moving forward. However, the announced resignation of the Director 

coming up this August could mean that it will be a number of months 

before an agency head appointed by the President and confirmed by the 

Senate will be in place.
 

Page 8 GAO-12-905T 

As with the heads of all federal agencies, it will be important for the 

Bureau Director to possess the requisite leadership and management 

skills and background to successfully address the challenges facing the 

Bureau in the years ahead. On the basis of our knowledge of past and 

present census operations and a review of readily available literature, 

certain general stewardship roles that the Director, as a senior executive, 

will play in managing the institution, and their related qualifications, merit 

particular attention in this regard. These roles and qualifications are not 

necessarily unique to the Bureau, and it is unlikely that any one person 

will excel in all of these areas. That said, based on our knowledge of past 

and present census operations and review of available literature on 

leadership—particularly of federal agencies—we identified the following 

characteristics of a successful leader:

• Strategic leader. As the head of the Census Bureau, the Director is 

responsible for, among other activities, (1) leading change and (2) 

leading people. In leading change, the Director will be expected to 

build a shared vision or long-term view for the organization among its 

stakeholders, as well as be a catalyst for developing and 

implementing the Bureau’s mission statement and strategic goals, and 

be cognizant of the forces affecting the Bureau. Moreover, in addition 

to the decennial census, the Bureau is also responsible for a number 

of other vital national data gathering and statistical programs such as 

the American Community Survey. As a result, it will be important for 

the Director to ensure the Bureau’s information products continue to 

meet the current and emerging needs of its numerous and diverse 

customers, including Congress, state, local and federal government 

organizations, and a wide array of other public and private 

organizations.

In leading people, the Director should ensure that human resource 

strategies, including recruitment, retention, training, incentive, and 

accountability initiatives are designed and implemented in a manner 

that supports the achievement of the organization’s mission and goals 

and addresses any mission critical skill gaps. In particular, it will be 

important for the Director to motivate headquarters, field, and 

temporary staff to ensure they function as an integrated team rather 

than a stovepiped bureaucracy.

• Technical professional. It is logical to expect that the Director would 

have at least a general background in statistics or a related field. 

Although no one person will have the full range of knowledge needed 

to answer the many methodological and technical questions that the 
 

Page 9 GAO-12-905T 

Director may face, it is important that he or she have sufficient 

technical knowledge to direct the Bureau’s statistical activities. In 

addition, the Director should manage for results by developing and 

using performance measures to assess and improve the Bureau’s 

operations.

• Administrator. Like other agency heads, the Director is responsible for 

acquiring and using the human, financial, and information technology 

resources needed to achieve its goals and mission. The Director 

should, for example, be capable of setting priorities based on funding 

levels. Further, because the Bureau’s product is information, the 

Director should ensure that the Bureau leverages technology, such as 

the Internet, to improve the collection, processing, and dissemination 

of census information.

• Collaborator. It will be important for the Director to continually expand 

and develop working relationships and partnerships with those in 

governmental, political and professional circles to obtain their input, 

support, and participation in the Bureau’s activities. For example, it 

will be important for the Director to continue working with local 

government officials to have them play a more active role in taking the 

census.

We previously found that leveraging such data as local response rates, 

census socio-demographic information, as well as other data sources and 

empirical evidence, might help control costs and improve accuracy by 

providing information on ways the Bureau could more efficiently allocate 

its resources. For example, some neighborhoods might require a greater 

level of effort to achieve acceptable results while in other areas those 

same results might be accomplished with fewer resources.7

The 2010 Census had several census-taking activities tailored to specific 

population groups. As one example, the Bureau budgeted around $297 

million on paid media to raise awareness and encourage public 

participation in the census. To determine where paid media efforts might 

have the greatest impact, the Bureau developed predictive models based 

on 2000 Census data and other sources. Other efforts included mailing a 

 

 

7

GAO-11-496T. 

Lesson Learned 2: 

Assess and Refine 

Existing Operations 

Focusing on Tailoring 

Them to Specific 

Locations and 

Population Groups
 

Page 10 GAO-12-905T 

bilingual English/Spanish questionnaire in some areas, and sending a 

second “replacement” census questionnaire to about 53 million 

households in areas with historically lower response rates. Preliminary 

Bureau evaluations suggest that some of these targeted efforts 

contributed to an increased awareness of the census and were 

associated with higher questionnaire mail-back response rates.

For the 2020 Census, the Bureau is considering expanding its targeting 

efforts to activities such as address canvassing, an operation where 

Bureau employees go door-to-door across the country verifying street 

addresses and identifying possible additions or deletions to its address 

list. This operation is important for building an accurate address list. In the 

2010 Census, address canvassing was conducted at the vast majority of 

housing units. For the 2020 Census, the Bureau believes it might be able 

to generate cost savings by using existing address records for those 

neighborhoods that have been stable, and only canvass those areas 

where significant changes have occurred. 

We previously found that studying the value added of a particular 

operation, such as the extent to which it reduced costs and/or enhanced 

data quality, could help the Bureau make more cost-effective use of its 

resources. As one example, in addition to address canvassing, the 

Bureau has several other operations to help it build a complete and 

accurate address list. This is to help ensure that housing units missed in

one operation get included in a subsequent operation. However, the 

extent to which each individual operation contributes to the overall 

accuracy of the address list is uncertain. This in turn makes it difficult for 

the Bureau to fully assess the extent to which potential reforms such as 

targeted address canvassing or other operations might affect the quality 

of the address list. Indeed, the Bureau’s formal program of assessing and 

evaluating various 2010 Census operations and activities, with which it 

expects to have completed over 100 studies by early in 2013, has only a 

few studies designed to produce information describing the return on 

investment. Designing future studies to better isolate the return on 

investment would help the Bureau further tailor its operations to specific 

population groups and locations and potentially generate substantial cost 

savings.
 

Page 11 GAO-12-905T 

A key priority for the Bureau will be to continue to address those 

shortcomings that led us to designate the 2010 Census a high-risk area in 

2008, including strengthening its ability to develop reliable life-cycle cost 

estimates and following key practices important for managing information 

technology (IT) so that they do not recur in 2020.8 In February 2011, we 

removed the high-risk designation from the 2010 Census because of the 

Bureau’s progress and strong commitment to and top leadership support 

for addressing problems, among other actions.9

• Processes for developing a life-cycle cost estimate. In our January 

2012 report, we found that the Bureau had not yet established 

policies, procedures, or guidance for developing the 2020 Census life 

cycle cost estimate and is at risk of not following related best 

practices.

The Bureau has made 

progress in these areas. However, additional efforts are needed.

10 A reliable cost estimating process, according to our Cost 

Estimating and Assessment Guide, is necessary to ensure that cost 

estimates are comprehensive, well documented, accurate, and 

credible.11

• IT management issues. As the Bureau prepares for 2020, it will be 

important for it to continue to improve its ability to manage its IT 

investments. Leading up to the 2010 Census, we made numerous 

recommendations to the Bureau to improve its IT management 

procedures by implementing best practices in risk management, 

The Bureau intends to use our cost guide as it develops 

cost estimates for 2020 and follow best practices wherever 

practicable; however, as we reported, the Bureau has not yet 

documented how it plans to conduct its cost estimates and could not 

provide a specific time when such documentation would be finalized. 

Developing this necessary guidance will help ensure the Bureau has a 

reliable life-cycle cost estimate, which in turn will help ensure that 

Congress, the administration, and the Bureau itself can have reliable 

information on which to base decisions.

 

8

GAO-08-550T.

9

GAO, High-Risk Series: An Update, GAO-11-278 (Washington, D.C.: Feb. 16, 2011). 

10GAO, Decennial Census: Additional Actions Could Improve the Census Bureau’s Ability 

to Control Costs for the 2020 Census, GAO-12-80 (Washington, D.C.: Jan. 24, 2012).

11GAO, GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide: Best Practices for Developing and 

Managing Capital Program Costs, GAO-09-3SP (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 2, 2009).

Lesson Learned 3: 

Institutionalize 

Efforts to Address 

High-Risk Areas
 

Page 12 GAO-12-905T 

requirements development, and testing.12 The Bureau implemented 

many of our recommendations, but not our broader recommendation 

to institutionalize these practices at the organizational level. The 

challenges experienced by the Bureau in acquiring and developing IT 

systems during the 2010 Census further demonstrate the importance 

of establishing and enforcing a rigorous IT systems development and 

management policy Bureau-wide. In addition, it will be important for 

the Bureau to improve its ability to consistently perform key IT 

management practices, such as IT investment management, system 

development and management, and enterprise architecture 

management. The effective use of these practices can better ensure 

that future IT investments will be pursued in a way that optimizes 

mission performance. We have ongoing reviews of the Bureau’s early 

2020 Census planning for its IT investment management, as well as 

its information security program, which we expect to report out in the 

months ahead.

As we noted in our May 2012 report, the Bureau’s early planning and 

preparation efforts for the 2020 Census are consistent with most leading 

practices in each of three management areas we reviewed—

organizational transformation, long-term planning, and strategic workforce 

planning.13

 

12For example, GAO, Information Technology: Census Bureau Testing of 2010 Decennial 

Systems Can Be Strengthened, 

 For example, the Bureau is in the middle of a major 

organizational transformation of its decennial operations, and consistent 

with our leading practices, top Bureau leadership has been driving the 

transformation through such activities as issuing a strategic plan for the 

2020 Census, incorporating annual updates of its business plan, and 

chartering an organizational change management council comprised of 

Bureau-wide executives and senior managers. The Bureau also has 

focused on a key set of principles as it begins to roll-out the 

transformation strategy to staff, and has created a timeline to build 

momentum and show progress. Although the decennial directorate is 

progressing with its organizational transformation, the person responsible 

for this effort—the Bureau’s organizational change manager—is 

GAO-09-262 (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 5, 2009);

GAO-08-79; and Census Bureau: Important Activities for Improving Management of Key 

2010 Decennial Acquisitions Remain to be Done, GAO-06-444T (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 

1, 2006). 

13GAO, 2020 Census: Additional Steps Are Needed to Build on Early Planning, 

GAO-12-626 (Washington, D.C.: May 17, 2012).

Lesson Learned 4: 

Ensure that the 

Bureau’s 

Management, Culture, 

and Business 

Practices Align with a 

Cost-Effective 

Enumeration
 

Page 13 GAO-12-905T 

responsible for a number of tasks, including transformation planning and 

implementation, and leading two working groups. At this point in the 

process, the amount of change-related activity the Bureau is considering 

may exceed the resources the Bureau has allocated to plan, coordinate, 

and carry it out. As a result, the planned transformation efforts could be 

difficult to sustain.

We also noted in May 2012 that the Bureau is taking steps consistent with 

many of the leading practices for long-term project planning, such as 

issuing a series of planning memorandums in 2009 and 2010 that laid out 

a high-level framework documenting goals, assumptions, and timing of 

the remaining four phases of the 2020 Census.14

Also in the area of long-term planning, to help incorporate lessons 

learned, in 2011 the Bureau created a recommendation follow-up 

process, built around a database it created containing various oversight 

and internal Bureau recommendations. Not having a formal process for 

recommendation follow-up for prior censuses made it difficult to ensure 

that recommendations were considered by those at the Bureau best able 

to act on them. The Bureau has provided these recommendations to 

relevant Bureau research and testing teams and is beginning to take 

steps to hold the teams accountable for reporting on how they are 

considering them.

The Bureau also 

created a high-level schedule of program management activities for the 

remaining phases, documented key elements such as the Bureau’s 

decennial mission, vision, and guiding principles, and produced a 

business plan to support budget requests, which is being updated 

annually. These are important steps forward that, if continued, could help 

the Bureau’s planning stay on track for 2020. However, the Bureau’s 

schedule does not include milestones or deadlines for key decisions 

needed to support transition between the planning phases which could 

result in later downstream planning activity not being based on evidence 

from such sources as early research and testing.

The Bureau is also taking steps consistent with leading practices for 

strategic workforce planning, including identifying current and future 

critical occupations with a pilot assessment of the competencies of 

selected information technology 2020 Census positions. However, the 

 

14GAO-12-626. 
 

Page 14 GAO-12-905T 

Bureau has done little yet either to identify the goals that should guide 

workforce planning or to determine how to monitor, report, and evaluate 

its progress toward achieving them, which could help the Bureau identify 

and avoid possible barriers to implementing its workforce plans.

While the Bureau’s efforts are largely consistent with leading practices in 

each of these areas, in our May 2012 report, we noted that additional 

steps could be taken going forward to build on these early planning 

efforts. Specifically, we recommended that the Director take a number of 

actions to make 2020 Census planning more consistent with key 

practices in the three management areas, such as examining planned 

transformation activity to ensure its alignment with resources, developing 

a more-detailed long-term schedule to smooth transition to later planning 

phases, and setting workforce planning goals and monitor them to ensure 

their attainment. The Department of Commerce concurred with our 

findings and recommendations and has taken steps to address our 

recommendations. For example, to support to its organizational 

transformation activities the Bureau has added additional staff and 

contractor support.

The Bureau is moving forward along a number of fronts to secure a more 

cost-effective 2020 enumeration. Many components are already in place, 

a number of assessment and planning activities are underway, and the 

Bureau has been responsive to our past recommendations. Further, the 

Bureau is generally applying key leading practices in the areas of 

organizational transformation, long-term project planning, and strategic 

workforce planning, although additional efforts are needed in the months 

ahead. In short, the Bureau continues to make noteworthy progress in 

reexamining both the fundamental design of the census as well as its own 

management and culture.

While this news is encouraging, it is still early in the decade, and the 

Bureau’s experience in planning earlier enumerations has shown how 

ambitious preparations at the start of the census life-cycle can derail as 

Census Day draws near. Thus, as the Bureau’s 2020 planning and reform 

efforts gather momentum, the effectiveness of those efforts will be 

determined in large measure by the extent to which they enhance the 

Bureau’s ability to control costs, ensure quality, and adapt to future 

technological and societal changes. Likewise, it will be important for 

Congress to hold the Bureau accountable for results, weighing-in on key 

design decisions, providing the Bureau with resources the Congress 

believes are appropriate to support that design, and ensuring that the 

Concluding 

Observations
 

Page 15 GAO-12-905T 

progress made to date stays on track. The Bureau’s initial preparations 

for 2020 are making progress. Nonetheless, continuing congressional 

oversight remains vital.

Chairman Carper, Ranking Member Brown, and Members of the 

Subcommittee, this concludes my prepared statement. I would be 

pleased to respond to any questions that you may have at this time.

If you have any questions on matters discussed in this statement, please 

contact Robert Goldenkoff at (202) 512-2757 or by e-mail at 

goldenkoffr@gao.gov. Other key contributors to this testimony include 

Richard Hung, Ty Mitchell, Lisa Pearson, Mark Ryan, and Timothy 

Wexler.

GAO Contacts and 

Staff 

Acknowledgements
Related GAO Products

Page 16 GAO-12-905T 

2020 Census: Additional Steps Are Needed to Build on Early Planning. 

GAO-12-626. Washington, D.C.: May 17, 2012.

Decennial Census: Additional Actions Could Improve the Census 

Bureau’s Ability to Control Costs for the 2020 Census. GAO-12-80. 

Washington, D.C.: January 24, 2012.

2010 Census: Preliminary Lessons Learned Highlight the Need for 

Fundamental Reforms. GAO-11-496T. Washington, D.C.: April 6, 2011.

2010 Census: Data Collection Operations Were Generally Completed as 

Planned, but Long-standing Challenges Suggest Need for Fundamental 

Reforms. GAO-11-193. Washington, D.C.: December 14, 2010.

2010 Census: Follow-up Should Reduce Coverage Errors, but Effects on 

Demographic Groups Need to Be Determined. GAO-11-154. Washington, 

D.C.: December 14, 2010.

2010 Census: Key Efforts to Include Hard-to-Count Populations Went 

Generally as Planned; Improvements Could Make the Efforts More 

Effective for Next Census. GAO-11-45. Washington, D.C.: December 14, 

2010.

2010 Census: Plans for Census Coverage Measurement Are on Track, 

but Additional Steps Will Improve Its Usefulness. GAO-10-324. 

Washington, D.C.: April 23, 2010.

2010 Census: Data Collection Is Under Way, but Reliability of Key 

Information Technology Systems Remains a Risk. GAO-10-567T. 

Washington, D.C.: March 25, 2010.

2010 Census: Key Enumeration Activities Are Moving Forward, but 

Information Technology Systems Remain a Concern. GAO-10-430T. 

Washington, D.C.: February 23, 2010.

2010 Census: Census Bureau Continues to Make Progress in Mitigating 

Risks to a Successful Enumeration, but Still Faces Various Challenges. 

GAO-10-132T. Washington, D.C.: October 7, 2009.

2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Take Action to Improve the 

Credibility and Accuracy of Its Cost Estimate for the Decennial Census. 

GAO-08-554. Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2008.

Related GAO Products
Related GAO Products

Page 17 GAO-12-905T 

Information Technology: Significant Problems of Critical Automation 

Program Contribute to Risks Facing 2010 Census. GAO-08-550T. 

Washington, D.C.: March 5, 2008.

Information Technology: Census Bureau Needs to Improve Its Risk 

Management of Decennial Systems. GAO-08-259T. Washington, D.C.: 

December 11, 2007.

2010 Census: Census Bureau Has Improved the Local Update of Census 

Addresses Program, but Challenges Remain. GAO-07-736. Washington, 

D.C.: June 14, 2007.

Information Technology Management: Census Bureau Has Implemented 

Many Key Practices, but Additional Actions Are Needed. GAO-05-661. 

Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2005.

21st Century Challenges: Reexamining the Base of the Federal 

Government. GAO-05-325SP. Washington, D.C.: February 1, 2005.

Information Technology Investment Management: A Framework for 

Assessing and Improving Process Maturity. GAO-04-394G. Washington, 

D.C.: March 1, 2004.

Comptroller General’s Forum, High-Performing Organizations: Metrics, 

Means, and Mechanisms for Achieving High Performance in the 21st 

Century Public Management Environment. GAO-04-343SP. Washington, 

D.C.: February 13, 2004.

2010 Census: Cost and Design Issues Need to Be Addressed Soon. 

GAO-04-37. Washington, D.C.: January 15, 2004.

Human Capital: Key Principles for Effective Strategic Workforce Planning. 

GAO-04-39. Washington, D.C.: December 11, 2003.

2000 Census: Lessons Learned for Planning a More Cost-Effective 2010 

Census. GAO-03-40. Washington, D.C.: October 31, 2002.

(451002)
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