San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, 2007

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2007 Ozone Plan i 

## Table of Contents

Executive Summary Plan prepared with extensive public input................................................... ES-1 What will this plan do? ................................................................................ES-2 Guiding Principles .......................................................................................ES-3 Why has this plan been prepared? ............................................................. ES-4 Valley’s challenge is greater than any other region in the nation ..............ES-5 Building on past efforts to achieve cleaner air ............................................ES-7

What amounts of additional reductions are needed? .................................ES-8 How difficult is it to reduce NOx emissions by another 75%? ....................ES-8 How do legal jurisdictional boundaries assigned to various governmental entities affect the design and implementation of this plan? ............................................................................................ES-9 What is the strategy for attainment? ..........................................................ES-10 Why is an “Extreme” attainment plan required? ....................................... ES-12 Journey to Attainment ................................................................................ES-14 What additional requirements are triggered by an “Extreme” designation? .........................................................................................ES-16 “Extreme” designation has onerous ramifications. Is not submitting a plan an option? ................................................................ES-16 Public Accountability ..................................................................................ES-16

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Acronyms and Glossary

Chapter 1: Progress and Current Air Quality

1.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 Adopted Rules................................................................................. 1-1 1.3 Current Air Quality ........................................................................... 1-1

1.3.1 Emissions .......................................................................... 1-2 1.3.2 Air Monitoring Data ............................................................ 1-4

Chapter 2: Meeting Federal Requirements

2.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 2-1

2.2 Health Effects .................................................................................. 2-1

2.2.1 Other Effects of Ozone ...................................................... 2-2

2.3 Health-Based Standards.................................................................. 2-3 2.4 Classifications and Requirements ................................................... 2-4 2.5 Federal CAA Planning Requirements Addressed by the

2007 Ozone Plan............................................................................. 2-7 2.5.1 Reasonably Available Control Technologies (RACT)......... 2-7

2.5.2 Attainment Demonstration ................................................. 2-7 2.5.3 Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) Demonstration ......... 2-8San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, 2007

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2007 Ozone Plan ii 2.5.4 Contingency Provisions ..................................................... 2-8 2.5.5 Major Stationary Source Threshold.................................... 2-8 2.5.6 Offset Requirements.......................................................... 2-9 2.5.7 New Technologies ............................................................. 2-9 2.5.8 Other Requirements........................................................... 2-9

Chapter 3: What is Needed to Demonstrate Attainment?

3.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Challenges....................................................................................... 3-1

3.2.1 Natural Conditions ............................................................. 3-1 3.2.2 Population Growth ............................................................. 3-4 3.2.3 Jurisdictional Limits and Regulatory Authority ................... 3-4 3.3 Modeling.......................................................................................... 3-6
3.3.1 Model Choice..................................................................... 3-6

3.3.2 Base Case ......................................................................... 3-6 3.3.3 Weight of Evidence............................................................ 3-7

3.3.4 RRF ................................................................................... 3-8 3.4 Carrying Capacity ............................................................................ 3-8

3.5 PM2.5 Considerations ................................................................... 3-14

Chapter 4: Strategy

4.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Overall Approach............................................................................. 4-1 4.2.1 Integration of Ozone and PM2.5 Strategies ....................... 4-1 4.3 Four-Faceted Control Strategy ........................................................ 4-2 4.4 State and Federal Components....................................................... 4-4 4.5 Support from Other District Programs ............................................. 4-4 4.5.1 Compliance/Enforcement................................................... 4-4 4.5.2 Public Education, Awareness, and Information.................. 4-6 4.5.2.1 Programs.............................................................. 4-6

4.5.2.2 Events ................................................................ 4-10

4.5.2.3 Materials............................................................. 4-11

4.5.3 Environmental Review ..................................................... 4-12
4.5.4 Sustainable Incentives ..................................................... 4-13

Chapter 5: Public Accountability

Chapter 6: District Regulatory Control Measures for Stationary Sources

6.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Regulatory Component.................................................................... 6-1 6.2.1 Process for Identifying and Evaluating

Potential Control Measures............................................... 6-2 6.3 Implementation Schedule for the Stationary Source Regulatory Component ................................................................... 6-4San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, 2007

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2007 Ozone Plan iii Chapter 7: Action Plan for Reducing Emissions with Incentive Funds

7.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 7-1 7.2 District Experience to Date in Administering and Implementing Incentive Programs..................................................... 7-2 7.2.1 Heavy-Duty Engine Emission Reduction Incentive Program ................................................................................. 7-2 7.2.2 REMOVE II Program ......................................................... 7-3 7.2.3 Light and Medium-Duty Vehicle Incentive Program .......... 7-4

7.2.4 Electric Lawnmower Incentives ......................................... 7-4 7.3 Existing Funding Sources in the San Joaquin Valley ...................... 7-4 7.3.1 DMV Surcharge Fees ....................................................... 7-5 7.3.2 Carl Moyer Memorial Air Quality Standards Attainment Program ................................................................................. 7-6 7.3.3 Indirect Source Review and Voluntary Developer Mitigation Control Funds ............................................................. 7-6 7.4 Potential Sources for Additional State and Federal Funding .......... 7-7 7.5 Enhancing SIP Creditability of Incentive Based

Emission Reductions ........................................................................ 7-7

7.5.1 Introduction ....................................................................... 7-7 7.5.2 Background ....................................................................... 7-8 7.5.3 Draft Changes to Incentive Program Operation ................ 7-9 7.5.4 Conclusions and Next Steps ........................................... 7-13 7.6 District Action Plan for Existing and Future Inventive Funds ........ 7-14

7.6.1 Potential Incentive Measures ......................................... 7-14 7.6.2 Recommended Funding Levels for Incentive Control

Measures ............................................................................. 7-57
7.6.3 Incentive Measures for Possible Future Consideration ... 7-61 7.7 Legislative Action Plan for Securing Proposed Funding ............... 7-62

Chapter 8: Innovative Strategies and Programs

8.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 8-1 8.2 Program Descriptions ...................................................................... 8-1 8.2.1 Green Contracting.............................................................. 8-1 8.2.2 Expanded Spare The Air Practices (or Effects) ................. 8-2 8.2.3 Employer Based Trip Reduction ........................................ 8-2 8.2.4 Heat Island Mitigation ........................................................ 8-3 8.2.5 Alternative Energy Production ........................................... 8-4 8.2.6 Energy Conservation ......................................................... 8-5

8.2.7 Enhanced Indirect Source Review..................................... 8-6 8.2.8 Episodic and Regionally-focused Control Measures.......... 8-7 8.2.9 Advanced Emission Reduction Options (AERO) ............... 8-7

Chapter 9: Local, State, and Federal Controls

9.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 9-1San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, 2007

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2007 Ozone Plan iv 9.2 Local Component: Measures to Reduce Emissions by Improving Vehicle Use .................................................................... 9-1 9.2.1 Legislative Requirement .................................................... 9-1 9.2.2 Local Reasonably Available Control Measure Strategy ..... 9-3 9.2.3 Conformity Budgets ........................................................... 9-8 9.3 Summary of the New Statewide Strategy Under Evaluation by the Air Resource Board Staff .................................... 9-9

Chapter 10: Reasonable Further Progress

10.1 Introduction.................................................................................. 10-1 10.2 Reasonable Further Progress Requirements .............................. 10-1 10.3 Reasonable Further Progress Calculations ................................. 10-2 10.4 Reductions Beyond RFP for Contingency ....................................10.4

Chapter 11: Conclusion

11.1 Introduction.................................................................................. 11-1 11.2 Summary of Control Strategy Emissions Reductions .................. 11-1

11.3 Discussion ................................................................................... 11-2 11.4 Major Source Thresholds............................................................. 11-5 11.5 Long-term measures ................................................................... 11-5 11.5.1 Alternative Energy Sources ............................................ 11-6 11.5.2 Advanced Retrofit/Replacement Technologies ............... 11-8

11.5.3 Smart Growth/Land Use ................................................ 11-9 11.6 Contingency Measures.............................................................. 11-10 11.6.1 Contingency Measures for RFP Milestones

and Attainment .................................................................. 11-10 11.6.2 “Black Box” Contingency Requirements ...................... 11-13

AcknowledgementsSan Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, 2007

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2007 Ozone Plan v 

## Appendices

Appendix A: Ambient Air Quality Data

A.1 Introduction .....................................................................................A-1 A.2 Ambient Air Quality Data.................................................................A-1 A.3 Trend and Spatial Variations...........................................................A-6

A.3.1 Local Trends......................................................................A-6 A.3.2 Number of Days Above the Eight Hour
Ozone NAAQS..................................................................A-8

A.3.3 Difference Between Urban and Rural Ozone Response ............................................................A-11

Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

B.1 Introduction .....................................................................................B-1 B.2 Emissions Inventory Tables ............................................................B-3 B.3 Emissions Inventory Calculations and Revisions ............................B-9 B.3.1 Emission Factors and Emission Equations........................B-9 B.3.2 Emissions Inventory Updates ..........................................B-10

Appendix C: Local Controls: Conformity and RACM

Appendix D: Emission Reduction Credits

D.1 Introduction .....................................................................................D-1
D.2 Pre-Baseline Emission Reduction Credits.......................................D-1

D.3 List of ERCs..................................................................................D-11 D.4 Cap on Growth............................................................................. D-33

Appendix E: Triennial Progress Report for the California 1-hour Ozone Standard

E.1 Introduction ...................................................................................E-1 E.1.1 Triennial Plan and Progress Report History ......................E-1 E.1.2 State Requirements and Guidance....................................E-2 E.2 Ambient Air Quality Data.................................................................E-3 E.3 Ozone Air Quality Indicators............................................................E-3 E.3.1 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) ......................E-4 E.3.2 Population-weighted Exposure (PWE) ..............................E-9 E.3.3 Area-weighted Exposure (AWE)......................................E-10 E.4 Transport Mitigation ......................................................................E-11
E.5 District Control Measures..............................................................E-12

E.6 Mobile Source Control Measures..................................................E-15

E.6.1 District Committed Measures ..........................................E-15 E.6.2 Voluntary Programs.........................................................E-15 E.6.3 Land Use Programs.........................................................E-16

E.7 Plan Revisions ..............................................................................E-17 E.7.1 Control Strategy...............................................................E-17 E.7.2 Expected Reductions.......................................................E-19San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, 2007

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2007 Ozone Plan vi Appendix F: Photochemical Modeling Support Documents

F.1 Introduction...................................................................................... F-1 F.2 Approach......................................................................................... F-2 F.2.1 Description of Methodology ............................................... F-3 F.2.2 Estimating Base-Year (2002) Design Values..................... F-4

F.2.3 Relative Reduction Factors................................................ F-5 F.2.4 Criteria for Use of Modeled Days in RRF

Calculations ...................................................................... F-6 F.2.5 Estimating Future-Year Design Values.............................. F-7 F.2.6 Unpaired Peak Concentrations.......................................... F-9

F.2.7 Other Potential Technical Issues ....................................... F-9

F.3 Future Year Results ...................................................................... F-10 F.3.1 Base-Year Design Values................................................ F-10 F.3.2 Future Year Design Value and Carrying Capacity Estimates ......................................................... F-11 F.4 Analysis of Model-Simulated, Unmonitored Peaks....................... F-15 F.5 Future Year, 2020 Carrying Capacities ......................................... F-16 F.6 Future Year, 2023 Carrying Capacities ......................................... F-37

Volume 1: Model Performance Evaluation ........................................... F-59 Corroborative Analyses/Weight of Evidence Elements....................... F-138

Appendix G: Town Hall Meeting Suggestions

Appendix H: Screening Analysis

Appendix I: Candidate Control Measures

Appendix J: Strategic Action Plan for the California Partnership for the San Joaquin Valley

Appendix K: Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT) Analysis for Wine Fermentation, Wine Storage, and Brandy Aging

Appendix L: Comments and Responses

L.1 Comments Received from ISSRC ................................................... L-1 L.2 Comments Received During the Final 30-Day Public

Comment Period ............................................................................. L-4 L.3 Comments Received from EPA on January 29, 2007 Draft........... L-16 L.4 Verbal Comments, February 8, 2007 Public Workshop on the

Draft 2007 Ozone Plan.................................................................. L-19 L.5 Written Comments, February 8, 2007 Public Workshop on the

Draft 2007 Ozone Plan.................................................................. L-25 L.6 Verbal Comments, October 17, 2006 Public Workshop on the

Draft 2007 Ozone Plan.................................................................. L-35 L.7 Written Comments, Public Comment Period Ending on November 7, 2006......................................................................... L-39San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, 2007

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2007 Ozone Plan vii Appendix M: Clean Air Act Requirements

Appendix N: ISSRC “Clearing the Air” February 2007, 1 st Version

Appendix O: ISSRC “Clearing the Air” February 2007, 2 nd Version

Appendix P: District Evaluation of ISSRC “Clearing the Air” Documents

Appendix Q: Supporting Documents for SIP Creditability Q.1 Resolution for Enhancing SIP Creditability of
Incentive Reductions .......................................................................Q-1 Q.2 Sample Emission Reduction Calculations Used in Protocols..........Q-1 Q.3 Heavy-Duty Program Annual Report Sample .................................Q-9San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, 2007

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2007 Ozone Plan viii 

## List of Figures

Figure ES-1 San Joaquin Valley NOx Emissions, 2005-2023........................ES-2 Figure ES-2 Unique Valley Conditions Trap Air Pollution...............................ES-5 Figure ES-3 VOC + NOx per Square Mile in the SJV and Other

Areas in California .....................................................................ES-6 Figure ES-4 Past Efforts to Reduce Air Pollution by Region ..........................ES-7 Figure ES-5 How Difficult is Achieving the Valley’s NOx Carrying Capacity for Ozone?.............................................................................ES-9 Figure ES-6 Projected Ozone Precursors by Major Category......................ES-10 Figure ES-7 Journey to Attainment ..............................................................ES-15

Figure 1-1 Ozone Formation ............................................................................ 1-2 Figure 1-2 Ozone Precursor Emissions Reductions (Summer Averages), 1990-2005..................................................................... 1-3 Figure 1-3 Ozone Monitoring Sites within the San Joaquin Valley

Air Basin.......................................................................................... 1-4 Figure 1-4 Improvement in 8-hour Ozone Levels, 1995-2005.......................... 1-5 Figure 1-5 Days Over the 1-hour Ozone Standard........................................... 1-6 Figure 1-6 Eight-hour Ozone Design Values, 2003-2005................................. 1-8 Figure 1-7 Days Over the Level of the Federal 8-hour Ozone Standard .......... 1-9

Figure 3-1 San Joaquin Valley Topography ..................................................... 3-1 Figure 3-2 Vertical Dispersion, With and Without Temperature Inversion........ 3-2 Figure 3-3 San Joaquin Valley Wind Patterns During Ozone Season.............. 3-3 Figure 3-4 Ozone Precursors by Source Type ................................................. 3-5 Figure 3-5 Arvin Monitoring Location Carrying Capacity (%), 2020................ 3-10 Figure 3-6 Fresno-Sierra Sky Park Carrying Capacity, 2020 ......................... 3-10 Figure 3-7 Arvin Monitoring Location Carrying Capacity (TPD), 2020............ 3-12 Figure 3-8 Arvin Monitoring Location Carrying Capacity (TPD), 2023............ 3-12 Figure 3-9 Attainment Carrying Capacities for Selected Sites, 2020 Modeling..................................................................... 3-14 Figure 3-10 Attainment Carrying Capacities for Selected Sites, 2023 Modeling..................................................................... 3-15

Figure 4-1 PM2.5 Formation ............................................................................ 4-2

Figure 10-1 Reductions Surpassing RFP Milestone Requirements ............... 10-3

Figure A-1 Valley-wide 3-year average of the annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour average ozone concentrations...........................A-4 Figure A-2 8-Hour Ozone Design Value (2005) ...............................................A-5San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, 2007

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2007 Ozone Plan ix Figure A-3 Visalia (one of seven improving sites in the SJVAB) 8-hour ozone 3-year average of the annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour average ozone concentrations, 1990-2005........A-6 Figure A-4 Fresno – Sierra Sky Park (the only site where 8-hour ozone air quality is getting worse) 3-year average of the annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour average ozone concentrations, 1990-2005 ............................................................A-7 Figure A-5 Fresno – Drummond (one of the eleven sites with no clear trend) 3-year average of the annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour average ozone concentrations, 1990-2005 ........................A-7 Figure A-6 Number of Days Over the Level of the 8-hour Ozone

Standard: Visalia ...........................................................................A-8 Figure A-7 Number of Days Over the Level of the 8-hour Ozone Standard: Fresno – Sierra Sky Park .............................................A-9 Figure A-8 Number of Days Over the Level of the 8-hour Ozone

Standard: Fresno – Drummond ....................................................A-9 Figure A-9 Ozone Concentrations (ppb) at Ash Mountain and Bakersfield - Golden on July 2, 2005...........................................A-12

Figure E-1 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the

Arvin-Bear Site .............................................................................E-5 Figure E-2 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the

Bakersfield Golden State Site .......................................................E-6 Figure E-3 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the

Bakersfield California Ave. Site ....................................................E-6 Figure E-4 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the

Clovis N. Villa Ave. Site ................................................................E-7 Figure E-5 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the

Fresno 1 st Street Site ....................................................................E-7 Figure E-6 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the

Hanford-Irwin Street Site ..............................................................E-8 Figure E-7 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the Maricopa-Stanislaus Street Site ...................................................E-8 Figure E-8 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the

Merced South Coffee Ave. Site ....................................................E-9 Figure E-9 Population Weighted Exposure per Person .................................E-10 Figure E-10 Area Weighted Exposure per Square Kilometer ........................E-11

Figure F-1 Sub-regions for air quality model performance evaluation.............. F-2 Figure F-2 Sample Report Page for the Arvin monitoring site....................... F-13San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, 2007

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2007 Ozone Plan x 

## List of Tables

Table 1-1 Sample Design Value Calculation.................................................... 1-7

Table 2-1 Federal and State Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone ........... 2-4 Table 2-2 Timelines and Requirements............................................................ 2-5 Table 2-3 Federal Requirements for Extreme 8-hour Ozone

Nonattainment Areas....................................................................... 2-6

Table 3-1 SJVAB Population by County........................................................... 3-4

Table 6-1 District Stationary Source Regulatory Implementation Schedule .... 6-5 Table 6-2 District Stationary Source Feasibility/Future Study Implementation

Schedule ........................................................................................ 6-6

Table 7-1 Existing Funding Sources................................................................. 7-5 Table 7-2 NOx Reductions Achieved by District Incentive Measures with Assured Funding ............................................................................. 7-6

Table 8-1 Projected Reductions for Employer-based Trip Reduction Program ......................................................................... 8-3

Table 9-1 Clean Air Act Section 108(f) Transportation Control Measures........ 9-4

Table 9-2 Maximum Feasible NOx Emission Reductions from TCMs in the San Joaquin Valley in 2020 and 2020 ................................... 9-6 Table 9-3 Transportation Conformity Budgets................................................ 9-10 Table 9-4 Emission Reduction Estimates for the San Joaquin Valley from Near Term Concepts Under Evaluation for

State and Federal Measures ......................................................... 9-11

Table 10-1 Adjusted Emissions Inventory (in tons per day) ............................ 10-2

Table 10-2 RFP Demonstration: Percent of Emissions Reductions from Base year ...................................................................................... 10-3 Table 10-3 Contingency Measure Demonstration ........................................... 10-4

Table 11-1 Summary of NOx Emissions Reductions to be Achieved by this Plan, tons per day .............................................................. 11-1 Table 11-2 Summary of VOC Emissions Reductions to be Achieved by this Plan, tons per day .............................................................. 11-2

Table A-1 Fourth Highest Eight Hour Average Ozone (ppm) ...........................A-2 Table A-2 3-year Average of the Annual Fourth-Highest Daily Maximum 8-hour Average Ozone Concentrations (ppm) ...............A-3 Table A-3 Current Ozone Air Quality Design Values and Attainment Status for the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin ....................................A-4San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, 2007

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2007 Ozone Plan xi Table A-4 Number of Days Above the 8-Hour Ozone Standard of 0.08 ppm ...................................................................................A-10

Table B-1 Reductions from District Rules Not Reflected in the Emissions Inventory ........................................................................B-2 Table B-2 ARB Adjustments to Emissions Inventory Baseline.........................B-2 Table B-3 Summer Average Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Emissions Inventory, tons per day....................................................................B-4 Table B-4 Summer Average Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC), tons per day.....................................................................................B-7

Table D-1 Estimated NOx Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use............D-5 Table D-2 Estimated VOC Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use ...........D-8 Table D-3 Current List of NOx and VOC Emission Reduction Credits, August 2006 ..................................................................................D-11 Table D-4 Cap on Stationary Source Growth by Pollutant .............................D-33

Table E-1 Triennial Progress Reports ..............................................................E-2 Table E-2 CCAA Requirements for Triennial Progress Reports.......................E-2

Table E-3 SJVAB State 1-hour Ozone Standard Exceedances .......................E-3

Table E-4 BARCT Rules ................................................................................E-13 Table E-5 Actual Emission Reductions for District Rules Affecting Ozone Precursor Emissions (2003-2005).................................................E-14 Table E-6 District Stationary Source Control Measure Cost Effectiveness Rankings .................................................................E-18 Table E-7 Planning Emissions Inventories (summer, tons/day) .....................E-19

Table F-1 Combined Number of Available Days Per Sub-region

Under 8-hour Metrics....................................................................... F-1 Table F-2 Baseline Design Value Calculation .................................................. F-5 Table F-3 Calculation of the Average Relative Reduction Factor with and without Consideration of Background Ozone ........................... F-8 Table F-4 San Joaquin Valley Design Values for 2002-2004 (Preliminary).................................................................................. F-10

Table H-1 Screening of Existing and Proposed District NOx

and VOC Rules ...............................................................................H-1

Table M-1 General Nonattainment Plan Requirements................................... M-1 Table M-2 Extreme Area Plan Requirements for Ozone

Nonattainment Areas...................................................................... M-3 Table M-3 California Clean Air Act Planning Requirements............................ M-7San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District April 30, 2007

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