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Table of Contents 

Executive Summary 

Plan prepared with extensive public input...................................................ES-1

What will this plan do? ................................................................................ES-2 

Guiding Principles .......................................................................................ES-3 

Why has this plan been prepared? .............................................................ES-4 

Valley’s challenge is greater than any other region in the nation ..............ES-5 

Building on past efforts to achieve cleaner air............................................ES-7 

What amounts of additional reductions are needed?.................................ES-8 

How difficult is it to reduce NOx emissions by another 75%?....................ES-8 

How do legal jurisdictional boundaries assigned to various 

governmental entities affect the design and implementation 

of this plan? ............................................................................................ES-9 

What is the strategy for attainment?..........................................................ES-10 

Why is an “Extreme” attainment plan required? .......................................ES-12 

Journey to Attainment................................................................................ES-14 

What additional requirements are triggered by an “Extreme” 

designation? .........................................................................................ES-16 

“Extreme” designation has onerous ramifications. Is not 

submitting a plan an option?................................................................ES-16 

Public Accountability..................................................................................ES-16

Table of Contents 

Acronyms and Glossary 

Chapter 1: Progress and Current Air Quality 

1.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 1-1 

1.2 Adopted Rules................................................................................. 1-1 

1.3 Current Air Quality ........................................................................... 1-1 

1.3.1 Emissions .......................................................................... 1-2 

1.3.2 Air Monitoring Data ............................................................ 1-4 

Chapter 2: Meeting Federal Requirements 

2.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 2-1 

2.2 Health Effects .................................................................................. 2-1 

2.2.1 Other Effects of Ozone ...................................................... 2-2 

2.3 Health-Based Standards.................................................................. 2-3 

2.4 Classifications and Requirements ................................................... 2-4 

2.5 Federal CAA Planning Requirements Addressed by the 

2007 Ozone Plan............................................................................. 2-7 

2.5.1 Reasonably Available Control Technologies (RACT)......... 2-7 

2.5.2 Attainment Demonstration ................................................. 2-7 

2.5.3 Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) Demonstration ......... 2-8 
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2.5.4 Contingency Provisions ..................................................... 2-8 

2.5.5 Major Stationary Source Threshold.................................... 2-8 

2.5.6 Offset Requirements.......................................................... 2-9 

2.5.7 New Technologies ............................................................. 2-9 

2.5.8 Other Requirements........................................................... 2-9

Chapter 3: What is Needed to Demonstrate Attainment?

3.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 3-1 

3.2 Challenges....................................................................................... 3-1 

3.2.1 Natural Conditions ............................................................. 3-1 

3.2.2 Population Growth ............................................................. 3-4 

3.2.3 Jurisdictional Limits and Regulatory Authority ................... 3-4 

3.3 Modeling.......................................................................................... 3-6 

3.3.1 Model Choice..................................................................... 3-6 

3.3.2 Base Case ......................................................................... 3-6 

3.3.3 Weight of Evidence............................................................ 3-7 

3.3.4 RRF ................................................................................... 3-8 

3.4 Carrying Capacity ............................................................................ 3-8 

3.5 PM2.5 Considerations ................................................................... 3-14 

Chapter 4: Strategy 

4.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 4-1 

4.2 Overall Approach............................................................................. 4-1 

4.2.1 Integration of Ozone and PM2.5 Strategies ....................... 4-1 

4.3 Four-Faceted Control Strategy ........................................................ 4-2 

4.4 State and Federal Components....................................................... 4-4 

4.5 Support from Other District Programs ............................................. 4-4 

4.5.1 Compliance/Enforcement................................................... 4-4 

4.5.2 Public Education, Awareness, and Information.................. 4-6 

4.5.2.1 Programs.............................................................. 4-6 

4.5.2.2 Events ................................................................ 4-10 

4.5.2.3 Materials............................................................. 4-11 

4.5.3 Environmental Review ..................................................... 4-12 

4.5.4 Sustainable Incentives ..................................................... 4-13 

Chapter 5: Public Accountability 

Chapter 6: District Regulatory Control Measures for Stationary Sources 

6.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 6-1 

6.2 Regulatory Component.................................................................... 6-1 

6.2.1 Process for Identifying and Evaluating 

Potential Control Measures............................................... 6-2 

6.3 Implementation Schedule for the Stationary Source 

Regulatory Component ................................................................... 6-4 
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Chapter 7: Action Plan for Reducing Emissions with Incentive Funds 

7.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 7-1 

7.2 District Experience to Date in Administering and 

Implementing Incentive Programs..................................................... 7-2 

7.2.1 Heavy-Duty Engine Emission Reduction Incentive 

Program ................................................................................. 7-2 

7.2.2 REMOVE II Program ......................................................... 7-3 

7.2.3 Light and Medium-Duty Vehicle Incentive Program .......... 7-4 

7.2.4 Electric Lawnmower Incentives ......................................... 7-4 

7.3 Existing Funding Sources in the San Joaquin Valley ...................... 7-4 

7.3.1 DMV Surcharge Fees ....................................................... 7-5 

7.3.2 Carl Moyer Memorial Air Quality Standards Attainment 

Program ................................................................................. 7-6 

7.3.3 Indirect Source Review and Voluntary Developer 

Mitigation Control Funds ............................................................. 7-6 

7.4 Potential Sources for Additional State and Federal Funding .......... 7-7 

7.5 Enhancing SIP Creditability of Incentive Based 

Emission Reductions ........................................................................ 7-7 

7.5.1 Introduction ....................................................................... 7-7 

7.5.2 Background ....................................................................... 7-8 

7.5.3 Draft Changes to Incentive Program Operation ................ 7-9 

7.5.4 Conclusions and Next Steps ........................................... 7-13 

7.6 District Action Plan for Existing and Future Inventive Funds ........ 7-14 

7.6.1 Potential Incentive Measures ......................................... 7-14 

7.6.2 Recommended Funding Levels for Incentive Control 

Measures ............................................................................. 7-57 

7.6.3 Incentive Measures for Possible Future Consideration ... 7-61 

7.7 Legislative Action Plan for Securing Proposed Funding ............... 7-62 

Chapter 8: Innovative Strategies and Programs 

8.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 8-1 

8.2 Program Descriptions ...................................................................... 8-1 

8.2.1 Green Contracting.............................................................. 8-1 

8.2.2 Expanded Spare The Air Practices (or Effects) ................. 8-2 

8.2.3 Employer Based Trip Reduction ........................................ 8-2 

8.2.4 Heat Island Mitigation ........................................................ 8-3 

8.2.5 Alternative Energy Production ........................................... 8-4 

8.2.6 Energy Conservation ......................................................... 8-5 

8.2.7 Enhanced Indirect Source Review..................................... 8-6 

8.2.8 Episodic and Regionally-focused Control Measures.......... 8-7 

8.2.9 Advanced Emission Reduction Options (AERO) ............... 8-7 

Chapter 9: Local, State, and Federal Controls 

9.1 Introduction...................................................................................... 9-1 
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9.2 Local Component: Measures to Reduce Emissions by 

Improving Vehicle Use .................................................................... 9-1 

9.2.1 Legislative Requirement .................................................... 9-1 

9.2.2 Local Reasonably Available Control Measure Strategy ..... 9-3 

9.2.3 Conformity Budgets ........................................................... 9-8 

9.3 Summary of the New Statewide Strategy Under 

Evaluation by the Air Resource Board Staff .................................... 9-9 

Chapter 10: Reasonable Further Progress 

10.1 Introduction.................................................................................. 10-1 

10.2 Reasonable Further Progress Requirements .............................. 10-1 

10.3 Reasonable Further Progress Calculations ................................. 10-2 

10.4 Reductions Beyond RFP for Contingency ....................................10.4 

Chapter 11: Conclusion 

11.1 Introduction.................................................................................. 11-1 

11.2 Summary of Control Strategy Emissions Reductions .................. 11-1 

11.3 Discussion ................................................................................... 11-2 

11.4 Major Source Thresholds............................................................. 11-5 

11.5 Long-term measures ................................................................... 11-5 

11.5.1 Alternative Energy Sources ............................................ 11-6 

11.5.2 Advanced Retrofit/Replacement Technologies ............... 11-8 

11.5.3 Smart Growth/Land Use ................................................ 11-9 

11.6 Contingency Measures.............................................................. 11-10 

11.6.1 Contingency Measures for RFP Milestones 

and Attainment .................................................................. 11-10 

11.6.2 “Black Box” Contingency Requirements ...................... 11-13

Acknowledgements
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Appendices 

Appendix A: Ambient Air Quality Data 

A.1 Introduction .....................................................................................A-1 

A.2 Ambient Air Quality Data.................................................................A-1 

A.3 Trend and Spatial Variations...........................................................A-6 

A.3.1 Local Trends......................................................................A-6 

A.3.2 Number of Days Above the Eight Hour 

Ozone NAAQS..................................................................A-8 

A.3.3 Difference Between Urban and Rural 

Ozone Response ............................................................A-11 

Appendix B: Emissions Inventory 

B.1 Introduction .....................................................................................B-1 

B.2 Emissions Inventory Tables ............................................................B-3 

B.3 Emissions Inventory Calculations and Revisions ............................B-9 

B.3.1 Emission Factors and Emission Equations........................B-9 

B.3.2 Emissions Inventory Updates ..........................................B-10 

Appendix C: Local Controls: Conformity and RACM 

Appendix D: Emission Reduction Credits 

D.1 Introduction .....................................................................................D-1 

D.2 Pre-Baseline Emission Reduction Credits.......................................D-1 

D.3 List of ERCs..................................................................................D-11 

D.4 Cap on Growth............................................................................. D-33 

Appendix E: Triennial Progress Report for the California 1-hour Ozone Standard 

E.1 Introduction ...................................................................................E-1 

E.1.1 Triennial Plan and Progress Report History ......................E-1 

E.1.2 State Requirements and Guidance....................................E-2 

E.2 Ambient Air Quality Data.................................................................E-3 

E.3 Ozone Air Quality Indicators............................................................E-3 

E.3.1 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) ......................E-4 

E.3.2 Population-weighted Exposure (PWE) ..............................E-9 

E.3.3 Area-weighted Exposure (AWE)......................................E-10 

E.4 Transport Mitigation ......................................................................E-11 

E.5 District Control Measures..............................................................E-12 

E.6 Mobile Source Control Measures..................................................E-15 

E.6.1 District Committed Measures ..........................................E-15 

E.6.2 Voluntary Programs.........................................................E-15 

E.6.3 Land Use Programs.........................................................E-16 

E.7 Plan Revisions ..............................................................................E-17 

E.7.1 Control Strategy...............................................................E-17 

E.7.2 Expected Reductions.......................................................E-19 
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Appendix F: Photochemical Modeling Support Documents 

F.1 Introduction...................................................................................... F-1 

F.2 Approach......................................................................................... F-2 

F.2.1 Description of Methodology ............................................... F-3 

F.2.2 Estimating Base-Year (2002) Design Values..................... F-4 

F.2.3 Relative Reduction Factors................................................ F-5 

F.2.4 Criteria for Use of Modeled Days in RRF 

Calculations ...................................................................... F-6 

F.2.5 Estimating Future-Year Design Values.............................. F-7 

F.2.6 Unpaired Peak Concentrations.......................................... F-9 

F.2.7 Other Potential Technical Issues ....................................... F-9 

F.3 Future Year Results ...................................................................... F-10 

F.3.1 Base-Year Design Values................................................ F-10 

F.3.2 Future Year Design Value and Carrying 

Capacity Estimates ......................................................... F-11 

F.4 Analysis of Model-Simulated, Unmonitored Peaks....................... F-15 

F.5 Future Year, 2020 Carrying Capacities ......................................... F-16 

F.6 Future Year, 2023 Carrying Capacities ......................................... F-37 

Volume 1: Model Performance Evaluation ........................................... F-59 

Corroborative Analyses/Weight of Evidence Elements....................... F-138 

Appendix G: Town Hall Meeting Suggestions 

Appendix H: Screening Analysis 

Appendix I: Candidate Control Measures 

Appendix J: Strategic Action Plan for the California Partnership for the San 

Joaquin Valley 

Appendix K: Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT) Analysis for Wine 

Fermentation, Wine Storage, and Brandy Aging 

Appendix L: Comments and Responses 

L.1 Comments Received from ISSRC ................................................... L-1 

L.2 Comments Received During the Final 30-Day Public 

Comment Period ............................................................................. L-4 

L.3 Comments Received from EPA on January 29, 2007 Draft........... L-16 

L.4 Verbal Comments, February 8, 2007 Public Workshop on the 

Draft 2007 Ozone Plan.................................................................. L-19 

L.5 Written Comments, February 8, 2007 Public Workshop on the 

Draft 2007 Ozone Plan.................................................................. L-25 

L.6 Verbal Comments, October 17, 2006 Public Workshop on the 

Draft 2007 Ozone Plan.................................................................. L-35 

L.7 Written Comments, Public Comment Period Ending on 

November 7, 2006......................................................................... L-39 
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Appendix M: Clean Air Act Requirements 

Appendix N: ISSRC “Clearing the Air” February 2007, 1st Version 

Appendix O: ISSRC “Clearing the Air” February 2007, 2nd Version 

Appendix P: District Evaluation of ISSRC “Clearing the Air” Documents 

Appendix Q: Supporting Documents for SIP Creditability 

Q.1 Resolution for Enhancing SIP Creditability of 

Incentive Reductions .......................................................................Q-1 

Q.2 Sample Emission Reduction Calculations Used in Protocols..........Q-1 

Q.3 Heavy-Duty Program Annual Report Sample .................................Q-9 
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List of Figures 

Figure ES-1 San Joaquin Valley NOx Emissions, 2005-2023........................ES-2 

Figure ES-2 Unique Valley Conditions Trap Air Pollution...............................ES-5 

Figure ES-3 VOC + NOx per Square Mile in the SJV and Other 

Areas in California .....................................................................ES-6 

Figure ES-4 Past Efforts to Reduce Air Pollution by Region ..........................ES-7 

Figure ES-5 How Difficult is Achieving the Valley’s NOx Carrying 

Capacity for Ozone?.............................................................................ES-9 

Figure ES-6 Projected Ozone Precursors by Major Category......................ES-10 

Figure ES-7 Journey to Attainment ..............................................................ES-15 

Figure 1-1 Ozone Formation ............................................................................ 1-2 

Figure 1-2 Ozone Precursor Emissions Reductions (Summer 

Averages), 1990-2005..................................................................... 1-3 

Figure 1-3 Ozone Monitoring Sites within the San Joaquin Valley 

Air Basin.......................................................................................... 1-4 

Figure 1-4 Improvement in 8-hour Ozone Levels, 1995-2005.......................... 1-5 

Figure 1-5 Days Over the 1-hour Ozone Standard........................................... 1-6 

Figure 1-6 Eight-hour Ozone Design Values, 2003-2005................................. 1-8 

Figure 1-7 Days Over the Level of the Federal 8-hour Ozone Standard .......... 1-9 

Figure 3-1 San Joaquin Valley Topography ..................................................... 3-1 

Figure 3-2 Vertical Dispersion, With and Without Temperature Inversion........ 3-2 

Figure 3-3 San Joaquin Valley Wind Patterns During Ozone Season.............. 3-3 

Figure 3-4 Ozone Precursors by Source Type ................................................. 3-5 

Figure 3-5 Arvin Monitoring Location Carrying Capacity (%), 2020................ 3-10 

Figure 3-6 Fresno-Sierra Sky Park Carrying Capacity, 2020 ......................... 3-10 

Figure 3-7 Arvin Monitoring Location Carrying Capacity (TPD), 2020............ 3-12 

Figure 3-8 Arvin Monitoring Location Carrying Capacity (TPD), 2023............ 3-12 

Figure 3-9 Attainment Carrying Capacities for Selected 

Sites, 2020 Modeling..................................................................... 3-14 

Figure 3-10 Attainment Carrying Capacities for Selected 

Sites, 2023 Modeling..................................................................... 3-15 

Figure 4-1 PM2.5 Formation ............................................................................ 4-2 

Figure 10-1 Reductions Surpassing RFP Milestone Requirements ............... 10-3 

Figure A-1 Valley-wide 3-year average of the annual fourth-highest daily 

maximum 8-hour average ozone concentrations...........................A-4 

Figure A-2 8-Hour Ozone Design Value (2005) ...............................................A-5 
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Figure A-3 Visalia (one of seven improving sites in the SJVAB) 

8-hour ozone 3-year average of the annual fourth-highest daily 

maximum 8-hour average ozone concentrations, 1990-2005........A-6 

Figure A-4 Fresno – Sierra Sky Park (the only site where 8-hour ozone 

air quality is getting worse) 3-year average of the annual 

fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour average ozone 

concentrations, 1990-2005 ............................................................A-7 

Figure A-5 Fresno – Drummond (one of the eleven sites with no clear 

trend) 3-year average of the annual fourth-highest daily maximum 

8-hour average ozone concentrations, 1990-2005 ........................A-7 

Figure A-6 Number of Days Over the Level of the 8-hour Ozone 

Standard: Visalia ...........................................................................A-8 

Figure A-7 Number of Days Over the Level of the 8-hour Ozone 

Standard: Fresno – Sierra Sky Park .............................................A-9 

Figure A-8 Number of Days Over the Level of the 8-hour Ozone 

Standard: Fresno – Drummond ....................................................A-9 

Figure A-9 Ozone Concentrations (ppb) at Ash Mountain and 

Bakersfield - Golden on July 2, 2005...........................................A-12 

Figure E-1 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the 

 Arvin-Bear Site .............................................................................E-5 

Figure E-2 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the 

 Bakersfield Golden State Site .......................................................E-6 

Figure E-3 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the 

 Bakersfield California Ave. Site ....................................................E-6 

Figure E-4 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the 

 Clovis N. Villa Ave. Site ................................................................E-7 

Figure E-5 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the 

 Fresno 1st Street Site ....................................................................E-7 

Figure E-6 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the 

 Hanford-Irwin Street Site ..............................................................E-8 

Figure E-7 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the 

 Maricopa-Stanislaus Street Site ...................................................E-8 

Figure E-8 Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC) at the 

 Merced South Coffee Ave. Site ....................................................E-9 

Figure E-9 Population Weighted Exposure per Person .................................E-10 

Figure E-10 Area Weighted Exposure per Square Kilometer ........................E-11 

 

Figure F-1 Sub-regions for air quality model performance evaluation.............. F-2 

Figure F-2 Sample Report Page for the Arvin monitoring site....................... F-13 
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List of Tables 

Table 1-1 Sample Design Value Calculation.................................................... 1-7 

Table 2-1 Federal and State Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone ........... 2-4 

Table 2-2 Timelines and Requirements............................................................ 2-5 

Table 2-3 Federal Requirements for Extreme 8-hour Ozone 

Nonattainment Areas....................................................................... 2-6 

Table 3-1 SJVAB Population by County........................................................... 3-4 

Table 6-1 District Stationary Source Regulatory Implementation Schedule .... 6-5 

Table 6-2 District Stationary Source Feasibility/Future Study Implementation 

Schedule ........................................................................................ 6-6 

Table 7-1 Existing Funding Sources................................................................. 7-5 

Table 7-2 NOx Reductions Achieved by District Incentive Measures with 

Assured Funding ............................................................................. 7-6 

Table 8-1 Projected Reductions for Employer-based Trip 

Reduction Program ......................................................................... 8-3 

Table 9-1 Clean Air Act Section 108(f) Transportation Control Measures........ 9-4 

Table 9-2 Maximum Feasible NOx Emission Reductions from TCMs 

in the San Joaquin Valley in 2020 and 2020 ................................... 9-6 

Table 9-3 Transportation Conformity Budgets................................................ 9-10 

Table 9-4 Emission Reduction Estimates for the San Joaquin Valley from 

 Near Term Concepts Under Evaluation for 

 State and Federal Measures ......................................................... 9-11 

Table 10-1 Adjusted Emissions Inventory (in tons per day) ............................ 10-2 

Table 10-2 RFP Demonstration: Percent of Emissions Reductions from 

Base year ...................................................................................... 10-3 

Table 10-3 Contingency Measure Demonstration ........................................... 10-4 

Table 11-1 Summary of NOx Emissions Reductions to be Achieved 

by this Plan, tons per day .............................................................. 11-1 

Table 11-2 Summary of VOC Emissions Reductions to be Achieved 

by this Plan, tons per day .............................................................. 11-2 

Table A-1 Fourth Highest Eight Hour Average Ozone (ppm) ...........................A-2 

Table A-2 3-year Average of the Annual Fourth-Highest Daily 

Maximum 8-hour Average Ozone Concentrations (ppm) ...............A-3 

Table A-3 Current Ozone Air Quality Design Values and Attainment 

Status for the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin ....................................A-4 
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Table A-4 Number of Days Above the 8-Hour Ozone Standard 

of 0.08 ppm ...................................................................................A-10 

Table B-1 Reductions from District Rules Not Reflected in the 

Emissions Inventory ........................................................................B-2 

Table B-2 ARB Adjustments to Emissions Inventory Baseline.........................B-2 

Table B-3 Summer Average Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Emissions 

Inventory, tons per day....................................................................B-4 

Table B-4 Summer Average Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC), 

tons per day.....................................................................................B-7 

Table D-1 Estimated NOx Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use............D-5 

Table D-2 Estimated VOC Growth, Control, and Estimated Offset Use ...........D-8 

Table D-3 Current List of NOx and VOC Emission Reduction Credits, 

August 2006 ..................................................................................D-11 

Table D-4 Cap on Stationary Source Growth by Pollutant .............................D-33 

Table E-1 Triennial Progress Reports ..............................................................E-2 

Table E-2 CCAA Requirements for Triennial Progress Reports.......................E-2 

Table E-3 SJVAB State 1-hour Ozone Standard Exceedances .......................E-3 

Table E-4 BARCT Rules ................................................................................E-13 

Table E-5 Actual Emission Reductions for District Rules Affecting Ozone 

Precursor Emissions (2003-2005).................................................E-14 

Table E-6 District Stationary Source Control Measure Cost 

Effectiveness Rankings .................................................................E-18 

Table E-7 Planning Emissions Inventories (summer, tons/day) .....................E-19 

Table F-1 Combined Number of Available Days Per Sub-region 

Under 8-hour Metrics....................................................................... F-1 

Table F-2 Baseline Design Value Calculation .................................................. F-5 

Table F-3 Calculation of the Average Relative Reduction Factor with 

and without Consideration of Background Ozone ........................... F-8 

Table F-4 San Joaquin Valley Design Values for 2002-2004 

(Preliminary).................................................................................. F-10 

Table H-1 Screening of Existing and Proposed District NOx 

 and VOC Rules ...............................................................................H-1 

Table M-1 General Nonattainment Plan Requirements................................... M-1 

Table M-2 Extreme Area Plan Requirements for Ozone 

Nonattainment Areas...................................................................... M-3 

Table M-3 California Clean Air Act Planning Requirements............................ M-7 
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