# COVER PAGE

Port of Astoria

Proposal Under the Small Community Air Service Development Program,

Docket DOT

- OST

- 2010

- 0124

1. Name of Community applying for the Grant: Port of Astoria

2. Legal Sponsor and D&B number Port of Astoria

D&B: 0476332680000

3. Two

- Digit Congressional District Code: 01

# Page 1

Attachment 3

- Sponsor’s Detailed Grant Proposal f or DOT

- OST

- 2010

- 0124

Air service to the Northwest C oast of Oregon and Southwest Coast of Washington is presently provided

by SeaPort Airline with two daily non

- stop round t rips between Portland, OR (PDX) and Astoria Regional

(AST) with Pilatus PC

- 12 equipment

. Fares are between $49.00 (first time flyer) and $160 (walk

- up); the

Astoria

- PDX (and reverse) fares have averaged $69.01 over the 75 week history of this service. This

service is subsidized with a Co nnect Oregon II G rant from the State of Oregon. The Port of Astoria and

the City of Newport operate as a consortium to sponsor this grant. A DOT Small Community Air Service

Development Grant is being paid down to market this Coastal Air Service Consortium service. At the

present rate, that grant will expire in late February, 2012.

This grant application is for marketing a new route , Astoria

- Boeing Field

- Astoria (AST

- BFI

- AST) after the

currently running grant has expired. The Port of Asto ria, as sponsor, will open bids using a competitive

solicitation through an RFP for providing the new air service and for marketing it i n January 2012

pending grant approval , with service beginning April 1, 2012 (see schedule below). The RFP is to specify

two round trips daily

- one arriving ( BFI ) before 6:00 AM, one departing ( BFI ) after 6:30 PM.

Air servi ce to AST has a long history. C ivilian scheduled service began in the early 1950’s with Air West

DC

- 3 equipment on a milk

- run/mail route/subsidized servi ce originating Boeing Field

- Olympia

Hoquiam

- AST

- and on south at every medium sized coastal city to San Francisco. Then they w ould turn

around and come back n orth. Air West transitioned to F

- 27 equipment and became Hughes Air West,

and ceased service to AST circa 1968. Small airlines since that time have included North Coast Airline,

Harbor Airline, Horizon Air, Kenmore Air and SeaPort. Hughes Air West and Hori zon Air pulled out as a

result of upsizing beyond the market’s capacity, the others pulled out as they downsized... SeaPort still

serves AST.

The Port of As toria has operated the Astoria Regional A irport since 1946. The C ity of Astoria and Clatsop

County als o have a long history of supporting air service. The Air Service Task F orce of the regional

Chamber of Commerce was formed in 1982 and in 2009 passed its mandate to Clatsop Economic

Development Resources, (CEDR) an interagency group. The Port of Astoria Ai r Service Task Force was

instrumental in bringing both Horizon Air and SeaPort to the North Coast, and CEDR has been

instrumental at maintaining the re lationship with SeaPort. The Port of Astoria has been an active

partner in all these efforts, at the comm ission and staff level.

Now we see a transportation need in air service to the greater Seattle area. A June 2010 s tudy by the

Mead and Hunt Consulting firm commissioned by the Coastal Air Service Consortium (attached) shows

considerable use of SEA (Seattle

- Tacoma International) by air travelers in the AST catchment area, but

only a low percentage (around 3%) flying via PDX (the only route Sea Port offers). We anticipate a much

larger portion of air travelers boarding in Astoria for Seattle departures when a direct service is

available. The North Oregon Coast is also a popular vacation/second home destination for Seattle area

# Page 2

residents. Recently CEDR sent out over 3000 promotional postcards to owners of local homes whose

utilities are billed to the Seattle ar ea.

Our grant request is for assistance with marketing this new route. Our target market includes

businesses, travel agents, local institutions such as Columbia Memorial Hospital, The Tongue Point Job

Corps Center, The US Coast Guard, NOAA, Shipping agents and shippers from the Port of Astoria, Fish

Processors, Fishermen, Tourists and telecommuters at the Seattle end, Travelers connecting to more

distant destinations (ref. Attachment #4

- Mead and Hunt Analysis pg. 17)

, Sports fans and more.

Our timeline

, including significant milestones:

Now through Jan, 2011 Solicit Air Carriers to apply for EAS Grant

Jan 1, 2011(pending grant approval) Publish RFP for Marketing Services

Publish RFP for Air carrier (open to all)

Feb 1, 2011 Select b oth Airline a nd Marketing Company

Feb 25, 2011 Airline& Community Approve Marketing/Advertising Plan,

March 1, 2011 Start Advertising/ Marketing campaign

April 1, 2011 Start Service

Monthly t her e after Review & Refine Program

Quarterly thereafter Report to DOT, incl. Budget, loads and marketing reports

.

The purpose of o ur grant application is to promote and market air service between AST and the Seattle

area to likely passengers in both the Seattle and NW Oregon/SW Washington areas, by selecting the

most a ppropriate and qualified marketing firm, monitoring their progress, and maintaining the

involvement of all the stakeholders in the process

- the communities, the a irline, th e marketing company

and the DOT. Should market penetration be deemed adequate, or th e service prospering to the extent

that it can advertise itself, the Port of Astoria would cease to request marketing funds from the DOT.

CEDR will establish a travel bank of pre

- sold tickets. Local radio s tations have agreed to provide in

- kind

contributi ons. We anticipate 2% of total ma rketing funds will be spent on promotional t ickets used in

community benefits in n ot

- for

- profit promotions.

The Port of Astoria, as legal sponsor, will administer/oversee all community and DOT funds as a separate

account in our audited accounting system. An annual budget and quarterly reports audited annually will

be presented to the DOT and the public.

# Page 3

Attachment two

- June 2010 Mead and Hunt AnalysisPASSENGERDEMANDANALYSISASTORIAREGIONALAIRPORTJUNE18,2010AirService@meadhunt.com(541) 689-9997P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT 

# T ABLE OF 

# C ONTENTSIntroduction ................................................................ 1Objectives.............................................................................. 2Methodology ......................................................................... 2Executive Summary .................................................... 3Airport Use .................................................................. 5Airport Catchment Area ........................................................ 5Current Air Service................................................................. 6Population ............................................................................. 6Load Factor, Available Seats, and Passengers.......................... 7Airport Use ............................................................................ 8Airport Use ByCommunity.................................................... 8True Market................................................................. 9True Market Estimate............................................................. 9Top 25 True MarketDestinations ......................................... 10Originating Airport For The Top 25 Domestic Destinations.... 11Top 10 Destinations By Originating Airport .......................... 12Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) geographic regions .... 13Regional Distribution of Travelers......................................... 14Distribution of International Travel ....................................... 15Airlines ...................................................................... 16Airlines Used At PortlandInternationalAirport ..................... 16Airlines Used At Seattle-Tacoma International Airport........... 17Factors Affecting Air Service Demand andRetention ................................................................... 18Passenger ActivityComparison ............................................. 18Airfares ................................................................................ 19Travel TimeComparison ....................................................... 21Nonstop ServiceAvailability.................................................. 22Situation Analysis..................................................... 24Appendix A. Top 50 True Markets ........................... 26Appendix B. Glossary ............................................... 28PAGE1

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT 

# I NTRODUCTIONhe constant changing airtransportation needs of communitiescoupled with the dynamic andvolatile nature of the airline industry havecreated an on-going challenge for manymarkets in the United States. Thischallenge was magnified by the events ofSeptember 11, 2001, after which aircarriers dramatically reduced service. Thedecrease in service combined with risingfuel costs, airline bankruptcyreorganizations, liquidations, and mergers made maintaining and improving air service in many regionsa critical issue. In 2007, air travel began to approach pre September 11, 2001, levels, but that trendwas reversed by record high fuelprices in 2008 followed by the negative impact of the recession.The past nine years illustrate the endemic volatilityof the airline industry and why it continues toburden many communities. Using quality information is essential to: evaluate the needs of local airservice markets, target realistic improvements,and understand the problems facing communities toeffectively address their issues. Air traveler information has unique limitations that create a significantchallenge for developing strategies to improve airservice. In addition, airlines spend little timeanalyzing opportunities at small and non-hub markets which places the burden on communities todevelop the information necessary to understand and support air service solutions. To that end, thisPassenger Demand Analysisprovides objective air traveler data that is compiled from industry acceptedsources using standard methodologies. Accordingly, airlines accept data included in thePassengerDemand Analysisas credible base information for air service forecasts. ThisPassenger DemandAnalysisrepresents a continuing effort by Astoria Regional Airport’s management to evaluate thetravel habits of catchment area residents.TPAGE2

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**O BJECTIVES** The objective of thePassenger Demand Analysisis to develop information on the travel patterns of localairline passengers who reside in the Astoria geographicarea. The report provides an understanding of theair service situation at Astoria Regional Airport and formulates strategies for improvement. This analysisexamines:• The originating airports used by air travelers• Diversion of airline passengertraffic to competing airports• An estimate of total airline passengers inthe catchment area and related destinations• Airlines used by local air travelers• Average airfares by origin and destination airport•Service levels at the Astoria Regional Airport and competing airports•An assessment of the air service situation at Astoria Regional Airport**M ETHODOLOGY** ThePassenger Demand Analysiscombines Marketing Information DataTape (MIDT) booking information from the Global Distribution Systems(GDS), which is used by travel agencies, and U.S. Department ofTransportation (DOT) airline data toprovide a comprehensive overview ofthe air travel market. For the purposes of this study, MIDT includebookings made by travel agencies in the Astoria Regional Airportcatchment area. It does not capture bookings issued directly by airlineWeb sites (e.g., www.alaskaair.com), agency Internet sites (e.g.,www.travelocity.com), or directly throughairline reservation offices. Datafrom Internet sites were not used inthis study because MIDT data aresorted by zip code. Internet sites record all bookings as originating fromthe zip code in which the server resides. For example, all bookings forwww.expedia.com are recorded with aSeattle zip code regardless of theair traveler’s location, since the serverfor Expedia is located in Seattle.Accordingly, retention or diversion information cannot be derived fromInternet site bookings. The data used include bookings for the zip codesin the catchment area, NOT all bookings. As a result, MIDT data representa sample, albeit the most effective one, to measure the air travel habits ofcatchment area air travelers.The near elimination of commissionspaid to travel agencies and thegreater acceptance of the Internet as a mode of commerce has reducedthe number of tickets written by travel agencies. Some carriers, withlimited dependence on travel agencies, transport a larger percentage oftravelers than in years past. This factor makes it impossible to definitivelyquantify the percentage of passengers from the catchment area who arebooking on one airline versus another; however, business travel, usuallythe highest yield traffic forairlines and the most sought after, is largelyrepresented in MIDT data and is oftencontracted out to travel agencies tomanage. As a result, airlines report that traditional travel agencies (andtherefore GDS) will continue to play a vital role in the distribution of airlinetickets. Therefore, although limitations exist, MIDT data accurately portraythe airline booking habits of a large cross-section of catchment areatravelers making the data useful to both airports and airlines. A total of3,989 bookings were included in thePassenger Demand Analysisfor thetwo-year period ended March 31, 2010.PAGE3

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT 

# E XECUTIVE 

# S UMMARY**A IRLINE** **B OOKINGS** **/C ATCHMENT** **A REA** ThePassenger Demand Analysisincludes 3,989bookings from the Astoria Regional Airportcatchment area for a two-year period endedMarch 31, 2010. The catchment area has anestimated population of 92,014 and 24 zipcodes. In addition to MIDT data, Data BaseProducts, Inc. and apgDat data is usedthroughout the report.**D EPARTURES AND** **A VAILABLE** **S EATS** SeaPort Airlines is the sole service provider toAstoria Regional Airport since March 2009.Astoria had an average of 21 weekly departuresand 189 outbound seats during a sample week inMay 2010. In June 2010, SeaPort will decreaseflights to two daily flights. Load factors for theSeaPort flights have reached a high of 26percent. Since the service began, the flights areaveraging just above a 16 percent load factor.**A IRPORT** **U SE** Two percent of catchment area travelers usedAstoria Regional Airport, while the other 98percent diverted to Portland and Seattle. Ninetyone percent of the catchment area used Portland,and seven percent used Seattle. Because SeaPortdoes not have interline ticketing and baggageagreements, 100 percent of their tickets are soldwithin the four-city SeaPort system. Therefore, allinternational traffic used Portland or Seattle.However, since two tickets are required whenusing Astoria Regional Airport, it is likely thatpassengers are connecting onward at Portland tobeyond domestic and international destinations.**T RUE** **M ARKET** Astoria’s total air service market, called the truemarket, is estimated at 138,732 annual originand destination passengers to/from the AstoriaRegional Airport catchment area. Domestictravelers accounted for 124,859 of the total truemarket. International travelers made up theremaining 13,873 passengers, or 10 percent.**D ESTINATIONS** Fifty-one percent of travelers, or 71,244passengers, were destined to or from one of thetop 25 markets. Las Vegas was the number onedestination with 6.6 percent of passengers. SanDiego was the second largest market with 6.3passengers flying this route each day, each way.Orange County (Santa Ana), Phoenix, and LosAngeles rounded out the top five destinations.Puerto Vallarta, Los Cabos, and Paris were thethree largest international destinations.**R EGIONAL** **D ISTRIBUTION OF** **T RAVEL** Forty-nine percent of travelers traveled to or fromthe West and Northwest regions. Thirty-eightpercent traveled to the West region, while 11percent traveled to the Northwest. TheSoutheast region made up the second largestregion, attracting 12 percent of all travel from theAstoria Regional Airport catchment area.PAGE4

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**A IRLINES** **U SED** When using the AstoriaRegional Airport, SeaPortAirlines is the only choice. Passengers divertingto Portland and Seattle were estimated using anapproximation of carrier share with MIDT data.Carrier shares of Astoria Regional Airportcatchment area passengers diverting to Portlandwere: Alaska Airlines/Horizon Air 32 percent,Delta Air Lines 14 percent, and United Airlines 12percent. Passengers diverting to Seattle usedAlaska/Horizon 37 percent of the time, Delta 19percent, and United 11 percent.**P ASSENGER** **A CTIVITY** From 2000 through 2009, domestic origin anddestination passengers (as reported by airlines tothe U.S. DOT) have ranged from 9,678,700 to11,327,040 at Portland International Airport and17,635,560 to 20,722,270 passengers at SeattleTacoma International Airport. The recession hasended the growth both airports were seeingthrough 2008 and have had negative growth inthe past year.**D OMESTIC** **A IRFARES** For calendar year 2009, the one-way averagedomestic airfare for Portland was $147.45;Seattle’s average fares were just below Portlandat $145.77. For all markets there is a $1.68difference between fares at Seattle and fares atPortland. San Francisco had the largest gap infares with Seattle being $39.94 lower thanPortland.**A VERAGE** **F ARE** **T REND** From 2000 through 2008, the average domesticairfares for Portland and Seattle passengersincreased at a compounded annual rate of 1.1percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. However,the recession has taken a toll on average airfaresin 2009. The highest average fare at Portlandduring the 10-year period was in 2008 at $155,and its lowest fare was in 2002 at $126.Seattle’s highest average fare was in 2008 at$162, while the lowest was $136 in 2002.**N ONSTOP** **S ERVICE** In May 2010, Astoria Regional Airport offeredconnecting service to none of the top 25destinations. Only nonstop service to Portlandwas provided with 21 weekly frequencies.Portland had nonstop service to 21 of the AstoriaRegional Airport catchment area true market top25 destinations and 51 overall destinations.Seattle had nonstop service to 24 markets in thetop 25 and 89 overall.**A IR** **S ERVICE** **O PPORTUNITIES** Air service at Astoria is in its infancy. Traffic hasdropped since the year over year comparisonswere available after March 2010. Going forwardthe community needs to promote using the localairport. Working withSeaPort on issues that canmake the service more convenient will helpimprove passenger enplanements and move theservice toward self sustaining.PAGE5

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT 

# A IRPORT 

# U SEo understand airport use, it is important to understand the relative size of the catchment area,current air service, and enplanement activity.Astoria Regional Airport’s use was determinedusing MIDT data for the two-year period ended March 31, 2010, for the zip codes from thecatchment area.**A IRPORT** **C ATCHMENT** **A REA** An airport catchment area, or service area, is ageographic area surrounding an airport where it canreasonably expect to draw passenger traffic and isrepresentative of the local market. The catchment areacontains the population of travelers who should useAstoria Regional Airport considering the drive time fromthe catchment area to competing airports. Thispopulation of travelers is Astoria Regional Airport’sfocus market for air service improvements andrepresents the majority oftravelers using the localairport.**Exhibit 3.1**identifies the Astoria RegionalAirport catchment area. It is comprised of 24 zip codeswithin the U.S. with an estimated population of 92,014.T**EXHIBIT 3.1 ASTORIA REGIONAL AIRPORT CATCHMENT AREA**PAGE6

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**C URRENT** **A IR** **S ERVICE** Catchment area airport use is affected by a variety of factorsincluding: destinations offered, flight frequency, available seats, typeof aircraft, airfares, and distance to a competing airport.**Table 3.1**provides Astoria Regional Airport’s weekly departures andseats for a sample week in May 2010. SeaPort Airlines hasserved the community since March 2009 with daily flightsto Portland using nine-passenger Pilatus PC-12 and comingsoon with nine-passenger Cessna Caravans. Service hasconsisted of three daily flights. However, starting in June2010 the schedule will be reduced to two daily flights.**P OPULATION** **Exhibit 3.2**plots population trends for a 10-year periodfrom calendar year 2001 to calendar year 2010. Thecombined population of Clatsop and Tillamook countiesin Oregon and Pacific and Wahkiakum Counties inWashington were used as a surrogate for the growthtrend of the Astoria Regional Airport catchment areapopulation. Over the past 10 years, the populationgrew from 84,299 to 89,054 increasing at acompounded annual growth rate of 0.6 percent.Population is expected to grow at a compoundedannual growth rate of 0.8 percent to 96,033 by 2020.**TABLE 3.1 WEEKLY DEPARTURES AND SEATS BY AIRLINE AND DESTINATION** **DESTINATION MARKETING** **CARRIER DEPARTURES** **PER WEEK SEATS** **PER WEEK** Portland, OR SeaPort 21 189**Total 21 189**Note: Sample Week in May 2010**EXHIBIT 3.2 POPULATION TREND**80,00082,00084,00086,00088,00090,0002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Calendar year

PopulationClatsop, Tillamook, Pacific and Wahkiakum Counties PopulationPAGE7

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**L OAD** **F ACTOR** **, A** **VAILABLE S** **EATS ,** **AND P** **ASSENGERS Exhibit 3.3** shows Astoria Regional Airport’s available seats, onboard passengers, and load factors for arrivals and departures byweek from March 15, 2009, through May 23, 2010.Since the year over year comparisons began in March 2010, Astoria RegionalAirport’s traffic is down roughly 23percent. Capacity has remained the same with three flights scheduled each day. StartinginJune 2010, the flight activity will decreaseto two flights per day. Load factors peaked at 26 percent full. The load factorhasaveraged a little above 16 percent since service inception.**EXHIBIT 3.3 LOAD FACTOR, AVAILABLE SEATS, AND ONBOARD PASSENGERS**020406080100120

3 /1 5 / 2009 4/ 1 2 / 2009 5. 1 7 / 2009 6/ 1 4 / 2009 7/ 1 2/2009 8/ 1 6/2009 9/ 1 3/2009 10/11/2009 11/15/2009 12/13/200 9 1/17/ 2 0 1 0

2 /14/ 2 0 1 0 3 /14/ 2 0 1 0 4 /18/ 2 0 1 0 5 /1 6 / 2 0 1 0Weekly Intervals

Load Factor %/Onboard passengers075150225300375450 Available seatsLoad factorOnboard passengersAvailable seatsLow LoadFactorsLoad factors peaked at26 percent full andhave averaged a littleabove 16 percent sinceservice inception.PAGE8

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**A IRPORT** **U SE** **Exhibit 3.4**provides a depiction of the airports used by AstoriaRegional Airport catchment area travelers.An estimated twopercent of the catchment area’s air travelers used Astoria RegionalAirport for their trips to and from the catchment area; 91 percentdiverted to Portland, and seven percent to Seattle.**A IRPORT** **U SE** **B Y** **C OMMUNITY** Airport retention rates by community are an important aspect tounderstanding the overall Astoria Regional Airport catchment area;**Table 3.2**shows how retention varies among the localcommunities within it. Because MIDT booking information is reportedby travel agency location, this analysis assumes that the traveler’sresidence is in the same community as the travel agency where theticket was purchased.Passengers living in communities closer to Portland InternationalAirport, as would be expected, have a higher propensity to access it.While Seattle-Tacoma International Airport captures seven percent ofthe region’s traffic, the largestpercentage comes from Seaside.However, Astoria has a much larger total number of Seattle bookings.Bookings for passengers using Astoria Regional Airport by communitywere unavailable, but they are included in the total percentage.**TABLE 3.2 AIRPORT USE BY COMMUNITY COMMUNITY** **AIRPORT % PDX** **SEA AST** Astoria 94 6 0Seaside 85 15 0Tillamook 98 2 0**T o** **t a** **l 9** **1 7** **2**Note: Data by community is not available for AST.Astoria2%Portland91%Seattle7%**EXHIBIT 3.4 AIRPORT USE**Proximity toAirport a largefactorPassengers living incommunities closer toPortland InternationalAirport, as would beexpected, have a higherpropensity to access it.PAGE9

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– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT 

# T RUE 

# M ARKEThe true market portion of thePassenger Demand Analysisestimates the total number ofpassengers in the catchment area; specifically,it analyzes the portion of passengers divertingfrom the Astoria Regional Airport catchment area. This section investigates destinationsassociated with travel to and from the catchment area. In addition, destinations are grouped intogeographic regions to further understand the flow of air travel.**T RUE** **M ARKET** **E STIMATE** The airport catchment area (**Exhibit 3.1,**page 5) represents the geographic area from which theairport primarily attracts air travelers. Domestic airlines report origin and destination traffic statistics tothe U.S. DOT on a quarterly basis. Used by itself, these traffic statistics do not quantify the total size ofan air service market. North Bend/Coos Bay has the most mature air service market on the OregonCoast. By studying North Bend/Coos Bay, a travel factor can be used to help estimate the size ofAstoria Regional Airport’s true market. By combining MIDT information with passenger datacontained in the U.S. DOT airline reports and the North Bend/Coos Bay travel factor, an estimate of thetotal air travel market by destination was calculated. Passenger numbers are estimated for domesticand international markets on a destination and regional basis.The MIDT data used in this report include information on initiated passengers ticketed by local travelagencies. This enables the identification of passenger retention and diversion. According to U.S. DOTairline reports for calendar year 2009, 50 percent of Astoria Regional Airport origin and destinationpassengers initiated air travel from Astoria, and the other 50 percent began their trip from another city(e.g. New York, Dallas, and Phoenix). For the purposes of this analysis and estimation of the truemarket, the assumption is thatthat origin and destination passengers who begin their trip frombeyond the catchment area (referred passengers) havethe same retention rate as those originatingtravel from within the catchment area (initiated passengers).TPAGE10

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**T OP** **25 T** **RUE M** **ARKET D** **ESTINATIONS**The top 25 destinations for Astoria Regional Airport accounted for 51 percent of thetravel to/from the Astoria Regional Airport catchment area. Las Vegas was the largestmarket with 9,199 annual passengers resulting in 12.6 passengers per day each wayand accounted for 6.6 percent of all travel.San Diego, Orange County (Santa Ana),Phoenix, and Los Angeles rounded out the top five air service markets for the AstoriaRegional Airport. None of these markets have nonstop service from Astoria, but allhave multiple nonstop service from Portland and Seattle.Due to SeaPort Airlines’ ticketing system, they can only ticket passengers to SeaPortdestinations. Therefore, only three destinations show up in Astoria Regional Airport’sreported traffic: Portland, Seattle, and Pendleton. None of these markets rank in thetop 25. However, Portland traffic accountedfor 86 percent of the total SeaPort traffic,with 2,851 passengers traveling from the AstoriaRegional Airport. It is assumed thatmost passengers going to Portland are actually connecting to other destinations.**TABLE 4.1 TRUE MARKET ESTIMATE - TOP 25 DESTINATIONS RANK** **DESTINATION AST** **REPORTED PAX** **DIVERTING PAX TRUE** **MARKET PDX** **SEA**1 Las Vegas, NV 0 9,122 77 9,1992 San Diego, CA 0 4,561 39 4,6003 Orange County, CA 0 4,059 309 4,3684 Phoenix, AZ 0 4,093 273 4,3665 Los Angeles, CA 0 3,827 309 4,1366 Oakland, CA 0 3,788 0 3,7887 Orlando, FL 0 3,247 541 3,7888 Reno, NV 0 2,976 116 3,0929 Denver, CO 0 2,680 101 2,78110 Sacramento, CA 0 2,314 158 2,47211 Miami, FL 0 2,281 116 2,39612 Palm Springs, CA 0 2,358 0 2,35813 Honolulu, HI 0 1,605 619 2,22414 Kahului, HI 0 2,048 141 2,18815 Anchorage, AK 0 1,701 464 2,16516 Indianapolis, IN 0 2,087 39 2,12617 Ontario, CA 0 1,855 0 1,85518 Nashville, TN 0 1,662 193 1,85519 Dallas, TX (DFW) 0 1,637 195 1,83220 San Francisco, CA 0 1,662 77 1,73921 Minneapolis, MN 0 1,546 155 1,70122 Spokane, WA 0 1,195 503 1,69923 Chicago, IL (ORD) 0 1,544 0 1,54424 Boise, ID 0 1,505 0 1,50525 Salt Lake City, UT 0 1,257 210 1,467**T o** **p 2** **5 d** **e s** **t i** **n a** **t i** **o n** **s 0** **6 6** **, 6** **1 0** **4 ,** **6 3** **4 7** **1 ,** **2 4** **4 T** **o t** **a l** **d o** **m e** **s t** **i c** **3 ,** **3 1** **6*********1 1** **3 ,** **6 4** **4 7** **, 8** **9 9** **1 2** **4 ,** **8 5** **9 T** **o t** **a l** **i n** **t e** **r n** **a t** **i o** **n a** **l 0** **1 2** **, 9** **7 1** **9 0** **2 1** **3 ,** **8 7** **3 A** **l l** **m a** **r k** **e t** **s 3** **, 3** **1 6** *******1 2** **6 ,** **6 1** **5 8** **, 8** **0 1** **1 3** **8 ,** **7 3** **2**Note: Due to Seaport Airlines' ticketing system, Seaport can onlyticket passengers to Seaportdestinations (i.e. Portland, Seattle, and Pendleton). Most passengers are likely connecting tobeyond destinations; however, theinformation is not available.PAGE11

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**O RIGINATING** **A IRPORT** **F OR** **T HE** **T OP** **25 D** **OMESTIC D** **ESTINATIONS Table 4.2** shows the percentage ofpassengers by market that used AstoriaRegional Airport or diverted to PortlandInternational Airport or Seattle-TacomaInternational Airport. The top 25 domesticdestinations accounted for 71,244 annualpassengers. Ninety-three percent ofpassengers in the top 25 markets usedPortland International Airport. Since thethree destinations that SeaPort serves are notin the top 25, Astoria had a zero percentretention for the top 25 markets. Overall twopercent of Astoria travelers used the localairport.**TABLE 4.2 TOP 25 DOMESTIC DESTINATIONS BY ORIGINATING AIRPORT** **RANK DESTINATION** **ORIGIN AIRPORT %** **TOTAL PAX** **AST PDX** **SEA**1 Las Vegas, NV 0 99 1 9,1992 San Diego, CA 0 99 1 4,6003 Orange County, CA 0 93 7 4,3684 Phoenix, AZ 0 94 6 4,3665 Los Angeles, CA 0 93 7 4,1366 Oakland, CA 0 100 0 3,7887 Orlando, FL 0 86 14 3,7888 Reno, NV 0 96 4 3,0929 Denver, CO 0 96 4 2,78110 Sacramento, CA 0 94 6 2,47211 Miami, FL 0 95 5 2,39612 Palm Springs, CA 0 100 0 2,35813 Honolulu, HI 0 72 28 2,22414 Kahului, HI 0 94 6 2,18815 Anchorage, AK 0 79 21 2,16516 Indianapolis, IN 0 98 2 2,12617 Ontario, CA 0 100 0 1,85518 Nashville, TN 0 90 10 1,85519 Dallas, TX (DFW) 0 89 11 1,83220 San Francisco, CA 0 96 4 1,73921 Minneapolis, MN 0 91 9 1,70122 Spokane, WA 0 70 30 1,69923 Chicago, IL (ORD) 0 100 0 1,54424 Boise, ID 0 100 0 1,50525 Salt Lake City, UT 0 86 14 1,467**T o** **p 2** **5 d** **o m** **e s** **t i** **c 0** **9 3** **7 7** **1 ,** **2 4** **4 T** **o t** **a l** **d o** **m e** **s t** **i c** **3 1** **0 1** **6 1** **2 4** **, 8** **5 9** PAGE12

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– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**T OP** **10 D** **ESTINATIONS B** **Y O** **RIGINATING A** **IRPORT Table 4.3** shows the top 10 markets for the AstoriaRegional Airport when passengers exclusively fly out ofPortland as well as the top 10 markets for when passengersfly exclusively from Seattle. Eight of the ten markets fromPortland have year round nonstop service. One market,Palm Springs, has seasonal nonstop service. For Seattle, allof the top ten markets have nonstop service. Seattle is usedmostly for travel to longer distance destinations, includingHonolulu, Orlando, Anchorage and Atlanta.**Exhibit 4.1**shows the top 10 markets overall and thepercentage Portland and Seattle receive by market with abar graph.**EXHIBIT 4.1 RETENTION AND DIVERSION FOR THE TOP 10 DESTINATIONS**01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000

PassengersLAS SAN SNA PHX LAX OAK MCO RNO DEN SMFPDXSEA**TABLE 4.3 TOP 10 DESTINATIONS BY ORIGINATING AIRPORT RANK** **PDX SEA** **DESTINATION PAX** **DESTINATION PAX** 1 Las Vegas, NV 9,122 Honolulu, HI 6192 San Diego, CA 4,561 Orlando, FL 5413 Phoenix, AZ 4,093 Spokane, WA 5034 Orange County, CA 4,059 Anchorage, AK 4645 Los Angeles, CA 3,827 Portland, OR 3636 Oakland, CA 3,788 Los Angeles, CA 3097 Orlando, FL 3,247 Orange County, CA 3098 Reno, NV 2,976 Phoenix, AZ 2739 Denver, CO 2,680 Atlanta, GA 27110 Palm Springs, CA 2,358 Salt Lake City, UT 210PAGE13

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**F EDERAL** **A VIATION** **A DMINISTRATION** **(FAA) GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS** It is important to identify and quantifyair travel markets, but it is also importantto measure air travel by specific geographicregions. Generally, airlines operate route systems that serve geographic areas. Additionally, most airline hubs are directional andflow passenger traffic to and from geographic regions, not just destinations within the region.Therefore, air service analysisexercises consider the regional flow of passenger traffic as wellas passenger traffic to a specificcity. Accordingly, this sectionanalyzes the regional distribution of air travelers from the airport catchment area. For thisexercise, the FAA geographicbreakdown of the U.S. is used (**Exhibit 4.2**).**EXHIBIT 4.2 FAA GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS**Northeast**Northwest West** **Southwest Central** **Great Lakes Southeast** **East Alaska** **Northeast Northwest** **West Southwest** **Central Great Lakes** **Southeast East** **Alaska Northeast** PAGE14

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**R EGIONAL** **D ISTRIBUTION OF** **T RAVELERS** **Table 4.4**and**Exhibit 4.3**divide catchment area travel into the FAA's nine geographic regions and one catch-all internationalregion. The western U.S. dominates the travel for the Astoria Regional Airport catchment area with 49 percent of all travelersflying to the West region or the Northwest region. Thirty-eightpercent of all travel was to the West region from the AstoriaRegional Airport catchment area. The West region includes: California, Arizona, Nevada, and Hawaii. The Southeast region wasthe second most frequented destination with 12 percent of all travel. Northwest region had the third largest share of regionalflowtraffic followed by in order of greatest toleast: International destinations, the Great Lakes region, the Southwest region, the Eastregion, Alaska, the Central region, and the Northeast region.**TABLE 4.4 REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF TRAVEL BY AIRPORT AIRPORT** **REGION W** **SE NW** **INT'L GL** **SW E** **AK C** **NE TOTAL** **PDX**Pax 49,905 15,707 10,525 12,971 11,193 9,087 6,903 4,887 2,984 2,454 126,615% 39 12 8 10 9 7 5 4 2 2 100**SEA**Pax 2,649 1,154 1,561 902 390 391 155 1,328 192 79 8,801% 30 13 18 10 4 4 2 15 2 1 100**AST**Pax 0 0 3,316 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,316% 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38**T o** **t a** **l P** **a x** **5 2** **, 5** **5 4** **1 6** **, 8** **6 1** **1 5** **, 4** **0 2** **1 3** **, 8** **7 3** **1 1** **, 5** **8 3** **9 ,** **4 7** **8 7** **, 0** **5 7** **6 ,** **2 1** **5 3** **, 1** **7 6** **2 ,** **5 3** **3 1** **3 8** **, 7** **3 2** **% 3** **8 1** **2 1** **1 1** **0 8** **7 5** **4 2** **2 1** **0 0** Note: AST passengers are only reported as PDX, BFI, or PDT destined and therefore lumped into the NW Region. Actualdestinations will vary based on unreported connections made at Portland.**EXHIBIT 4.3 REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF TRAVEL**010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000

Pa xW SE NW INT'L GL SW E AK C NEPDXSEAASTHigh domestictravel to the WestregionThirty-eight percent of alltravel was to the Westregion from the AstoriaRegional Airportcatchment area.PAGE15

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– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**D ISTRIBUTION OF** **I NTERNATIONAL** **T RAVEL** Ten percent of catchment area travelers had international itineraries.**Table 4.5**shows international travelers by airport and region. Mexicoand Central America was the most frequented international region with51 percent, or 7,023 of the total 13,873 catchment area internationaltravelers. Traffic primarily goes to the Mexican business center ofGuadalajara, and the Mexican beach resorts of Puerto Vallarta, LosCabos, and Cancun. Europe was the second largest international regionwith 25 percent. Paris was the largest European market followed byLondon. Asia was the third largest international region with 10 percent,and Canada was the fourth largest region amongst Astoria RegionalAirport catchment area international travelers with five percent ofinternational travel. The remainingtop international regions were, inorder of greatest to least: Australia and Oceania, Caribbean, Africa,South America, and the Middle East.**TABLE 4.5 REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF INTERNATIONAL PASSENGERS** **REGION ORIGINATING** **AIRPORT TOTAL** **PDX SEA** Mexico &CentralAmericaPax 6,815 208 7,023% of row 97 3 100% of column 53 23 51EuropePax 3,028 438 3,466% of row 87 13 100% of column 23 49 25AsiaPax 1,265 171 1,436% of row 88 12 100% of column 10 19 10CanadaPax 671 0 671% of row 100 0 100% of column 5 0 5Australia &OceaniaPax 543 0 543% of row 100 0 100% of column 4 0 4CaribbeanPax 232 0 232% of row 100 0 100% of column 2 0 2AfricaPax 130 85 215% of row 60 40 100% of column 1 9 2SouthAmericaPax 190 0 190% of row 100 0 100% of column 1 0 1Middle EastPax 97 0 97% of row 100 0 100% of column 1 0 1**T o** **t a** **l p** **a s** **s e** **n g** **e r** **s 1** **2 ,** **9 7** **1 9** **0 2** **1 3** **, 8** **7 3** **% o** **f r** **o w** **9 3** **7 1** **0 0** **% o** **f c** **o l** **u m** **n 1** **0 0** **1 0** **0 1** **0 0** PAGE16

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– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT 

# A IRLINESnformation in this section identifies airline use by catchment areaair travelers. The information isairport and airline specific. The intent is to determine which airlines are used to travel to specificdestinations when air travel is accessed at an airport other than the local airport. Airline marketshare at Portland International Airport and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport are based on MIDTdata and is an estimationof carrier share.**A IRLINES** **U SED** **A T** **P ORTLAND** **I NTERNATIONAL** **A IRPORT** **Table 5.1**provides the airline share for the top 25 truemarkets and total domestic share by airline at PortlandInternational Airport. Alaska Airlines/Horizon Air captured 32percent of the passengers from the Astoria Regional Airportcatchment area that diverted to Portland. Delta Air Lines wassecond with 14 percent. United Airlines and SouthwestAirlines were the next largestcarriers used at Portland with 12and 10 percent of the total Portland traffic. Southwest servesPortland, and their portion of diverting passengers from theAstoria Regional Airport catchment area is likely understatedin the MIDT data. Understatement of market share for carrierslike Southwest and other low-fare carriers is largely due totheir low reliance on travel agencies to book passengers.I**TABLE 5.1 AIRLINES USED AT PORTLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RANK** **DESTINATIONS AIRLINE %** **TOTAL PAX** **AS DL** **UA WN** **US OTHER** 1 Las Vegas, NV 61 0 1 27 11 0 9,1222 San Diego, CA 75 0 1 19 0 6 4,5613 Orange County, CA 97 0 0 1 0 2 4,0594 Phoenix, AZ 49 1 1 16 32 1 4,0935 Los Angeles, CA 62 6 19 10 0 3 3,8276 Oakland, CA 68 0 0 18 0 14 3,7887 Orlando, FL 42 24 4 12 1 18 3,2478 Reno, NV 30 0 3 68 0 0 2,9769 Denver, CO 23 9 36 19 0 13 2,68010 Sacramento, CA 39 0 0 61 0 0 2,31411 Miami, FL 3 2 12 0 7 76 2,28112 Palm Springs, CA 85 0 8 0 7 0 2,35813 Honolulu, HI 2 34 1 0 0 64 1,60514 Kahului, HI 9 3 2 0 0 86 2,04815 Anchorage, AK 100 0 0 0 0 0 1,70116 Indianapolis, IN 0 46 2 0 7 44 2,08717 Ontario, CA 50 0 2 40 2 6 1,85518 Nashville, TN 0 14 16 19 0 51 1,66219 Dallas, TX (DFW) 0 0 0 0 20 80 1,63720 San Francisco, CA 58 0 40 0 2 0 1,66221 Minneapolis, MN 10 85 3 0 0 3 1,54622 Spokane, WA 53 0 0 47 0 0 1,19523 Chicago, IL (ORD) 9 0 61 0 4 26 1,54424 Boise, ID 100 0 0 0 0 0 1,50525 Salt Lake City, UT 6 67 0 28 0 0 1,257**T o** **t a** **l t** **o p** **2 5** **4 5** **1 0** **6 1** **6 4** **1 9** **6 6** **, 6** **1 0** **T o** **t a** **l d** **o m** **e s** **t i** **c 3** **2 1** **4 1** **2 1** **0 8** **2 4** **1 1** **3 ,** **6 4** **4**PAGE17

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– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**A IRLINES** **U SED** **A T** **S EATTLE** **-T ACOMA** **I NTERNATIONAL** **A IRPORT** **Table 5.2**shows the airlines used when travelers from the Astoria Regional Airport catchment area used at SeattleTacoma International Airport. Alaska/Horizon had the largest share of Astoria Regional Airport catchment areapassengers at Seattle carrying 37 percent of diverting passengers. Delta captured 19 percent of the divertingpassengers, and United captured 11 percent of the divertingpassengers at Seattle. Southwest, Virgin America, andJet Blue serve Seattle, and their traffic is likely understated.**TABLE 5.2 AIRLINES USED AT SEATTLE/TACOMA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RANK** **DESTINATIONS AIRLINE %** **TOTAL PAX** **AS DL** **UA AA** **HA OTHER** 1 Las Vegas, NV 0 0 0 0 0 100 772 San Diego, CA 100 0 0 0 0 0 393 Orange County, CA 100 0 0 0 0 0 3094 Phoenix, AZ 100 0 0 0 0 0 2735 Los Angeles, CA 75 0 0 25 0 0 3096 Oakland, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 07 Orlando, FL 0 0 43 57 0 0 5418 Reno, NV 33 0 0 0 0 67 1169 Denver, CO 0 0 100 0 0 0 10110 Sacramento, CA 100 0 0 0 0 0 15811 Miami, FL 0 0 0 0 0 100 11612 Palm Springs, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 013 Honolulu, HI 4 69 0 0 27 0 61914 Kahului, HI 0 0 0 0 100 0 14115 Anchorage, AK 83 0 0 0 0 17 46416 Indianapolis, IN 0 100 0 0 0 0 3917 Ontario, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 018 Nashville, TN 0 0 0 0 0 100 19319 Dallas, TX (DFW) 0 0 0 100 0 0 19520 San Francisco, CA 0 0 100 0 0 0 7721 Minneapolis, MN 0 75 0 0 0 25 15522 Spokane, WA 100 0 0 0 0 0 50323 Chicago, IL (ORD) 0 0 0 0 0 0 024 Boise, ID 0 0 0 0 0 0 025 Salt Lake City, UT 0 100 0 0 0 0 210**T o** **t a** **l t** **o p** **2 5** **3 1** **2 8** **7 1** **0 1** **4 1** **0 4** **, 6** **3 4** **T o** **t a** **l d** **o m** **e s** **t i** **c c** **3 7** **1 9** **1 1** **8 7** **1 7** **7 ,** **8 9** **9**PAGE18

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– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT 

# F ACTORS 

# A FFECTING 

# A IR 

# S ERVICE



# D EMAND AND 

# R ETENTIONhis section examines several factors that have affected and will continue to affect air servicedemand in the Astoria area and Astoria RegionalAirport’s ability to retain passengers. Thefactors affecting an airport’s ability to retain passengers included in this section are: airfares,travel time from competing airports, and nonstop service availability atcompeting airports.**P ASSENGER** **A CTIVITY** **C OMPARISON** To better understand the changes in passenger volumes atPortland International Airportand Seattle-Tacoma InternationalAirport,**Exhibit 6.1**provides a depiction of domestic origin anddestination passengers over the last 10 years by yearly passengertotals. During this period, Portland origin and destinationpassengers decreased at a compounded annual growth rate of0.6 percent and varied from 9,678,700 to 11,327,040passengers. Seattle passengers have increased at a compoundedannual growth rate of 0.4 percent varying from 17,635,560 to20,722,270 passengers. Since 2002, Portland grew at acompounded annual growth rate of one percent, whereas, Seattlehas grown at a compounded annualgrowth rate of 1.7 percent.T**EXHIBIT 6.1 PASSENGER TRENDS**16,00016,50017,00017,50018,00018,50019,00019,50020,00020,50021,000 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9Calendar year

O&D Pax: SEA (000)9,0009,3009,6009,90010,20010,50010,80011,10011,40011,70012,000 O&D Pax: PDX (000)SEAPDXPAGE19

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**A IRFARES** When a traveler decides which airport to access for travel, airfaresplay a large role. Airfares affectair service demand and an airport’sability to retain passengers. One-way airfares (excluding taxes andPassenger Facility Charges (PFC)) paid by travelers are used tomeasure the relative fare competitiveness between PortlandInternational Airport and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.Fares are for all air travelers using competing airports and are notreflective of the average fare paid by catchment area travelersdiverting to competing airports. For Astoria Regional Airport, onlythree destinations appear in theU.S. DOT origin and destinationtraffic (i.e. Portland, Pendleton, and Seattle). For that reason, faresat Astoria were not compared to Portland or Seattle.**Table 6.1**shows one-way average airfares for the top 25 catchmentarea domestic destinations. Average airfares are a result of manyfactors including: length of haul, availability of seats, business versusleisure fares, and airline competition. The overall average fare forcalendar year 2009 at Portland International Airport was $147.45,which was $1.68 higher than Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.Portland and Seattle have fares that are on average within $2 ofeach other. However, the largest gap in the top 25 true marketswas $39.94 between the lowest fare at Seattle and the lowest atPortland for flights to and from San Francisco.**TABLE 6.1 U.S. DOT AVERAGE DOMESTIC AIRFARE RANK** **DESTINATION DOMESTIC ONE** **WAY MAX** **DIFF. PDX** **SEA**1 Las Vegas, NV $109.13 $103.84 $5.292 San Diego, CA $139.24 $118.73 $20.513 Orange County, CA $128.94 $116.73 $12.214 Phoenix, AZ $121.79 $123.63 $1.845 Los Angeles, CA $138.80 $105.79 $33.016 Oakland, CA $107.86 $82.14 $25.727 Orlando, FL $145.74 $163.44 $17.708 Phoenix, AZ $93.54 $104.19 $10.659 Denver, CO $111.20 $115.84 $4.6410 Sacramento, CA $89.37 $109.43 $20.0611 Miami, FL $186.49 $198.91 $12.4212 Palm Springs, CA $135.39 $118.41 $16.9813 Honolulu, HI $189.55 $192.21 $2.6614 Kahului, HI $185.54 $208.30 $22.7615 Anchorage, AK $223.13 $224.21 $1.0816 Indianapolis, IN $153.89 $164.07 $10.1817 Ontario, CA $133.83 $113.57 $20.2618 Nashville, TN $159.06 $156.97 $2.0919 Dallas, TX (DFW) $193.90 $184.91 $8.9920 San Francisco, CA $131.03 $91.09 $39.9421 Minneapolis, MN $174.46 $143.14 $31.3222 Spokane, WA $76.90 $75.00 $1.9023 Chicago, IL (ORD) $202.49 $176.35 $26.1424 Boise, ID $77.54 $79.22 $1.6825 Salt Lake City, UT $108.51 $114.74 $6.23**A v** **e r** **a g** **e d** **o m** **e s** **t i** **c f** **a r** **e $** **1 4** **7 .** **4 5** **$ 1** **4 5** **. 7** **7 $** **1 .** **6 8** Note: CY 2009; Fares do not include taxes or PFC.No fare differencebetween Portlandand SeattleThe overall average farefor calendar year 2009at PortlandInternational Airportwas $147.45, which was$1.68 higher thanSeattle-TacomaInternational Airport.PAGE20

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– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**Exhibit 6.2**tracks the average fares at Portland and Seattle from 2000through 2009. Based on U.S. DOT airline data, averagefares at Portland International Airport have ranged from $126(2002) to $155 (2008). The average fare at Seattle-TacomaInternational Airport ranged from $136 (2002) to $162 (2008).Overall, average domestic fares at Portland over the 2000 to 2008period increased at a compounded annual rate of 1.1 percent. Seattle’s fares grew at a compounded annual rate of 0.4 percent.Overall, Portland’s and Seattle’s fares decreased significantly in2009 due to the poor economy and the airlines using price tostimulate travel.**EXHIBIT 6.2 10-YEAR AVERAGE DOMESTIC ONE-WAY FARE TREND**$120$130$140$150$160$1702000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

One-way average farePDXSEAPAGE21

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**T RAVEL** **T IME** **C OMPARISON** **Table 6.2**displays the overall flight time fromAstoria Regional Airport to the top 10 catchment area destinations connecting fromAstoria Regional Airport or using nonstop or connecting serviceat Portland or Seattle. Accessible connecting flights at PortlandInternational Airport require a minimum connecting time allowance of 1 hour 30 minutes to be included in the comparison. Thedrive time from Astoria to Portland InternationalAirport is estimated at two hours one minute. As**Table 6.2**shows, this drive timeis four minutes shorter than the flight andconnection. However, not factored into this comparison is thelonger time to parkavehicle at Portland International Airport nor the time to checkin and clear security, which is included in the flying/connection timefrom Astoria.The drive time from Astoria to Seattle-TacomaInternational Airport is estimated at three hours 13 minutes. An Astoria RegionalAirport catchment area air traveler can save overall travel time inaddition to the convenience of using the local airport. However,the drive option from a time standpoint is a very viable substitute. Improving the air service at Astoria would bring more value tothe fly local option.SeaPort Airlines’ disadvantage is the fact that theydo not use the main passenger terminal atPortland International Airport and they do nothave ticketing and baggage agreements with anyairlines as of yet. A passenger using SeaPort viaPortland International Airport must pick up theirbags and take a shuttle bus over to the mainterminal and check-in with their onward airlineand then clear security.The same is true whenconnecting to Astoria except that SeaPortpassengers are not required to clear security.Enhanced ticketing and baggage agreements withthe carriers that serve Portland would makeSeaPort more competitive.**TABLE 6.2 TRAVEL TIME COMPARISON (MINUTES) RANK** **CONNECTING DESTINATIONS** **AST CONNECT** **PDX NS/CONX** **SEA NS/CONX** **TIME SAVINGS** 1 Las Vegas, NV 260 256 339(4)2 San Diego, CA 276 272 358(4)3 Orange County, CA 270 266 355(4)4 Phoenix, AZ 278 274 363(4)5 Los Angeles, CA 264 260 353(4)6 Oakland, CA 225 221 318(4)7 Orlando, FL 540 536 520(20)8 Reno, NV 205 201 298(4)9 Denver, CO 275 271 345(4)10 Sacramento, CA 210 206 298(4)Note: Sample Week in May 2010(1) ONP connection time = elapsed time leg +90 minute minimum connect time + elapsed timeleg 2(2) PDX nonstop time = average drive time (2 hrs, 1 min) + nonstop elapsed time; PDXconnection time = average drive time (2hrs, 1 min) + connection elapsed time.(3) SEA nonstop time = average drive time (3 hrs, 13 min) + nonstop elapsed timePAGE22

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**N ONSTOP** **S ERVICE** **A VAILABILITY** Travelers drive to competing airports to access air service for manyreasons, one of which is nonstop service availability.**Table 6.3**compares the level of air serviceoffered at Portland InternationalAirport with that offered at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.In May 2010, Portland International Airport offered nonstop service to21 of the top 25 catchment area destinations with 865 weeklyfrequencies. Seattle had service to 24 of the top 25 markets with1,492 flights per week. Astoria Regional Airport served one marketoverall, while Portland served51 and Seattle served 89 overall.**TABLE 6.3 NONSTOP SERVICE COMPARISON RANK** **DESTINATION WEEKLY DEPARTURES** **PDX SEA** 1 Las Vegas, NV 48 842 San Diego, CA 21 483 Orange County, CA 26 454 Phoenix, AZ 74 895 Los Angeles, CA 55 1196 Oakland, CA 66 797 Orlando, FL 0 78 Reno, NV 20 289 Denver, CO 90 10610 Sacramento, CA 73 5611 Miami, FL 0 712 Palm Springs, CA 7 1913 Honolulu, HI 13 3114 Kahului, HI 14 1415 Anchorage, AK 8 12316 Indianapolis, IN 0 017 Ontario, CA 19 2118 Nashville, TN 0 719 Dallas, TX (DFW) 34 7720 San Francisco, CA 75 11521 Minneapolis, MN 27 5222 Spokane, WA 53 14923 Chicago, IL (ORD) 42 9024 Boise, ID 39 5325 Salt Lake City, UT 61 73**T o** **t a** **l t** **o p** **2 5** **f r** **e q** **u e** **n c** **i e** **s s** **8 6** **5 1** **, 4** **9 2** **N u** **m b** **e r** **o f** **t o** **p 2** **5 s** **e r** **v e** **d 2** **1 2** **4 T** **o t** **a l** **d e** **s t** **i n** **a t** **i o** **n s** **s e** **r v** **e d** **5 1** **8 9** High Level ofNonstop ServicePortland has nonstopservice to 21 of the top25 destinations.Seattle-TacomaInternational Airport hasnonstop service to 24 ofthe top 25 markets.PAGE23

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**Table 6.4**provides Portland International Airport’sdaily departures by airline for a sampleweek in May 2010. Portland had service to 51 destinations on 12 different airlines. AlaskaAirlines/Horizon Air was the highest frequency provider providing 39 percent of the total 230daily departures and providing 34 percent of total seats. Southwest Airlines was the secondlargest airline at Portland offering 39 daily flights to 13 destinations. United Airlines and UnitedExpress combined to be Portland’s third largestcarrier with 18 percent of the total flights and13 percent of the total seats. Service ranged from SeaPort’s nine-passenger planes operatingto four destinations up to Hawaiian’s 264-passenger 767-300 that operates to Honolulu andKahului. The bulk of Portland’s flights are in the 50 to 150 seat range.**Table 6.5**shows Seattle-Tacoma International Airport’s level of service by airline.Alaska/Horizon is the primary service providerat Seattle-Tacoma International Airport with 228daily flights accounting for 56 percent of the total 409 daily departures and 50 percent of thetotal seats available. Southwest and Delta AirLines/Delta Connection provided a respective 10and seven percent of Seattle’s total departures and a respective 11 and 10 percent of the52,238 daily seats. Seattle has service to 89 nonstop destinations on 22 airlines. Serviceranged from United Express’ 30-passenger planesoperating to two destinations up to BritishAirways’ 351-passenger 747-400 operating to London’s Heathrow Airport. The bulk ofSeattle’s flights are in the 70 to 180 seat range.**TABLE 6.4 PORTLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WEEKLY DEPARTURES AND OUTBOUND SEATS** **AIRLINE DAILY** **DEPARTURES NONSTOP** **DESTINATIONS DAILY** **SEATS**Alaska/Horizon 87 27 7,995Southwest 39 13 5,352United/United Express 42 13 3,018Delta/Delta Connection 17 9 2,785Continental 6 2 1,001US Airways 6 2 884American 5 1 680Frontier 4 1 605Hawaiian 2 2 520JetBlue 3 2 386Air Canada/Air Canada Jazz 5 2 243SeaPort 13 4 120**T o** **t a** **l 2** **3 0** **5 1** **2 3** **, 5** **8 8** Note: Sample Week in May 2010**TABLE 6.5 SEATTLE-TACOMA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WEEKLY DEPARTURES AND OUTBOUND SEATS** **AIRLINE DAILY** **DEPARTURES NONSTOP** **DESTINATIONS DAILY** **SEATS**Alaska/Horizon 228 62 26,271Southwest 41 16 5,566Delta/Delta Connection 28 10 5,200United/United Express 38 8 4,059American 15 4 2,167Continental 12 4 2,138US Airways 9 4 1,305Virgin America 7 2 883Frontier/Midwest 6 3 733JetBlue 5 3 686Hawaiian 2 2 631Air Canada/Air Canada Jazz 9 3 493AirTran 3 3 411British Airways 1 1 351Lufthansa 1 1 221Asiana 1 1 216Korean 1 1 215Air France 1 1 188EVA 1 1 181Icelandair 1 1 131Hainan 1 1 127Sun Country 0.4 1 65**T o** **t a** **l 4** **0 9** **8 9** **5 2** **, 2** **3 8** Note: Sample Week in May 2010PAGE24

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT 

# S ITUATION 

# A NALYSIShisPassenger Demand Analysisrecapsthe performance of the AstoriaRegional Airport during the recessionof 2009. Astoria Regional Airport issituated on the coast at the mouth of theColumbia River and serves a catchment areawith an estimated population of 92,014.Astoria is approximately 100 miles fromPortland International Airport and 170 milesfrom Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.Access to either airport requires travelingpart way on winding two-lane highways.With the aid of a ConnectOregon grant of $3.6 million,Astoria was able to secure service to Portlandin nine-seat Pilatus PC-12 aircraft operated by SeaPort Airlines starting in March 2009. The service hasstruggled due to the high cost of the Pilatus aircraft, low ridership, and theshortcomings in interlineticketing and baggage agreements which have resulted in the service not being shown in Internet andreservation systems. Other than locally, the larger marketplace is virtually unaware of the availability ofair service to Astoria. The net result has been tocreate a need for a high degree of subsidization ofthe service.The small population base and commercial activityresults in a modest true market estimate of138,732. Like many coastal communities, Astoria benefits from a relatively small tourism base withties to its historical Lewis and Clark role and a limited amount of Coast Guard nautical and aviationactivity. However, the catchment area’s most important economic segment isthe fishing industry.Though none of those elements create a large airservice demand, they do combine to create an airservice need.TPAGE25

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORTGoing forward there is an urgent need tomake Astoria’s air service self-sustaining.The potential replacement of the PilatusPC-12with the lower cost Cessna Caravan is a positive first step inmaking the service less subsidy dependent. Further efforts onexpanding interline ticketing and baggage agreements and perhaps codesharing will further increase the convenience and theutility of the service. Another benefit would result from the service being displayed in internet and reservation systems whichwould be a quantum leap forward in marketplace awareness of Astoria air service.Based on the previous promotional efforts,Astoria’s air service should continue to be linked to Portlandthough there is essentially no local market and the primary marketpotential is for connecting passengers to beyond destinations.Seattle service could be a future consideration. There is aconnection between Astoria’s fishing community and the Alaska fishing industry. Service to Seattle would be a benefit if theflights used Seattle-Tacoma International Airport instead of King County International Airport where there are few connectingopportunities without a van or taxi ride back to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.Going forward, the community needs to continue to promote using the local airport. The flight schedule adjustment to two flightswill better match the current demand. The decrease of passengers from March through May is a concerning trend and one thatneeds to be reversed if the community isto maintain air service. Working with SeaPort on issues that include but are not limitedto, interline ticket and baggage agreements and improving overall visibility of the service should help to improve the overallairservice picture in Astoria.PAGE26

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– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT 

# A PPENDIX 

# A. T OP 

# 50 T RUE



# M ARKETS**TABLE A.1 ASTORIA REGIONAL AIRPORT TOP 50 TRUE MARKETS RANK** **DESTINATION REPORTED** **PAX RETENTION** **% TRUE** **MARKET PDEW** **DIVERTING PAX PDX** **SEA**1 Las Vegas, NV 0 0 9,199 13 9,122 772 San Diego, CA 0 0 4,600 6 4,561 393 Orange County, CA 0 0 4,368 6 4,059 3094 Phoenix, AZ 0 0 4,366 6 4,093 2735 Los Angeles, CA 0 0 4,136 6 3,827 3096 Oakland, CA 0 0 3,788 5 3,788 07 Orlando, FL 0 0 3,788 5 3,247 5418 Reno, NV 0 0 3,092 4 2,976 1169 Denver, CO 0 0 2,781 4 2,680 10110 Sacramento, CA 0 0 2,472 3 2,314 15811 Miami, FL 0 0 2,396 3 2,281 11612 Palm Springs, CA 0 0 2,358 3 2,358 013 Honolulu, HI 0 0 2,224 3 1,605 61914 Kahului, HI 0 0 2,188 3 2,048 14115 Anchorage, AK 0 0 2,165 3 1,701 46416 Indianapolis, IN 0 0 2,126 3 2,087 3917 Ontario, CA 0 0 1,855 3 1,855 018 Nashville, TN 0 0 1,855 3 1,662 19319 Dallas, TX (DFW) 0 0 1,832 3 1,637 19520 San Francisco, CA 0 0 1,739 2 1,662 7721 Minneapolis, MN 0 0 1,701 2 1,546 15522 Spokane, WA 0 0 1,699 2 1,195 50323 Chicago, IL (ORD) 0 0 1,544 2 1,544 024 Boise, ID 0 0 1,505 2 1,505 025 Salt Lake City, UT 0 0 1,467 2 1,257 21026 King Salmon, AK 0 0 1,391 2 1,314 7727 Guadalajara, Mexico 0 0 1,388 2 1,388 028 Fort Lauderdale, FL 0 0 1,353 2 1,353 029 Puerto Vallarta, Mexico 0 0 1,323 2 1,191 13230 Atlanta, GA 0 0 1,314 2 1,044 27131 Tampa, FL 0 0 1,198 2 1,198 032 Pittsburgh, PA 0 0 1,198 2 1,198 0PAGE27

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**TABLE A.1 ASTORIA REGIONAL AIRPORT TOP 50 TRUE MARKETS RANK** **DESTINATION REPORTED** **PAX RETENTION** **% TRUE** **MARKET PDEW** **DIVERTING PAX PDX** **SEA**33 San Antonio, TX 0 0 1,082 1 966 11634 Washington, DC (DCA) 0 0 1,044 1 966 7735 Burbank, CA 0 0 1,005 1 966 3936 New York, NY (JFK) 0 0 1,005 1 966 3937 New Orleans, LA 0 0 1,005 1 1,005 038 Lihue, HI 0 0 1,000 1 885 11539 Oklahoma City, OK 0 0 943 1 943 040 Kona, HI 0 0 932 1 853 7941 San Jose Cabo, Mexico 0 0 909 1 909 042 Kansas City, MO 0 0 905 1 865 3943 Cancun, Mexico 0 0 865 1 777 8944 Kenai, AK 0 0 789 1 749 3945 Boston, MA 0 0 750 1 710 3946 Houston, TX (IAH) 0 0 750 1 750 047 Mexico City, Mexico 0 0 713 1 713 048 Fresno, CA 0 0 673 1 633 4049 Paris-De Gaulle, France 0 0 648 1 514 13450 El Paso, TX 0 0 634 1 634 0**T o** **p 5** **0 d** **e s** **t i** **n a** **t i** **o n** **s 0** **0 9** **6 ,** **0 6** **1 1** **3 2** **9 0** **, 1** **0 2** **5 ,** **9 6** **0 T** **o t** **a l** **D o** **m e** **s t** **i c** **3 ,** **3 1** **6 3** **1 2** **4 ,** **8 5** **9 1** **7 1** **1 1** **3 ,** **6 4** **4 7** **, 8** **9 9** **T o** **t a** **l I** **n t** **e r** **n a** **t i** **o n** **a l** **0 0** **1 3** **, 8** **7 3** **1 9** **1 2** **, 9** **7 1** **9 0** **2 T** **o t** **a l** **a l** **l m** **a r** **k e** **t s** **3 ,** **3 1** **6 2** **1 3** **8 ,** **7 3** **2 1** **9 0** **1 2** **6 ,** **6 1** **5 8** **, 8** **0 1** PAGE28

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT 

# A PPENDIX 

# B. G LOSSARY**Airline codes**AA ...........................................American AirlinesAS .............................. AlaskaAirlines/Horizon AirDL ................................................ DeltaAir LinesHA ........................................... Hawaiian AirlinesUA ............................................... United AirlinesUS ..................................................... USAirwaysWN ........................................ Southwest Airlines**Airport catchment area (ACA)**The geographic area surrounding an airport fromwhich that airport can reasonably expect to drawpassenger traffic. The airport catchment area issometimes called the service area.**Airport codes**AST ................................................... Astoria, ORBFI................................ Seattle-Boeing Field, WADCA ............................ Washington-National, DCDEN ................................................. Denver, CODFW....................................Dallas- Ft. Worth, TXIAH ........................ Houston Intercontinental, TXJFK ................................. New York-Kennedy, NYLAS ............................................... Las Vegas, NVLAX ........................................... Los Angeles, CAMCO ............................ Orlando-International, FLOAK ................................................ Oakland, CAORD ...................................... Chicago-O’Hare, ILPDT .............................................. Pendleton, ORPDX................................................. Portland, OR**Airport Codes (continued)**PHX ................................ Phoenix-Sky Harbor, AZRNO..................................................... Reno, NVSAN ............................................. San Diego, CASEA...................................................Seattle, WASMF ........................................... Sacramento, CASNA ..................................... Orange County, CA**Average airfare**The average of the airfares reported by theairlines to the U.S. DOT. The average airfare doesnot include taxes or passenger facility chargesand represents one-half of a roundtrip ticket.**Destination airport**Any airport where the air traveler spends fourhours or more. This is the Federal AviationAdministration definition.**Diversion**Passengers who do not use the local airport forair travel, but instead use a competing airport tooriginate the air portion of their trip.**Enplanement**A passenger boarding a commercial aircraft.**FAA**Acronym for the FederalAviation Administration.**GDS/CRS**Acronyms for Global Distribution Systems, alsoknown as Computer Reservation Systems. Thereare four Global Distribution Systems in the UnitedStates, including Amadeus, Galileo International(Apollo), Sabre, Inc., and Worldspan.**Hub**An airport used by an airline as a transfer point toget passengers to their intended destination. It ispart of a hub and spoke model, where travelersmoving between airports not served by directflights change planes en route to theirdestination. Also an airport classification systemused by the FAA (e.g., non-hub, small hub,medium hub, and large hub.**Initiated (origin) passengers**Origin and destination passengers who begantheir trip from within the catchment area.**Load factor**The percentage of airplane capacity that is usedby passengers.**Local market**The number of air travelers who travel betweentwo points via nonstop air service.PAGE29

P ASSENGER D EMAND A NALYSIS

– A STORIA R EGIONAL A IRPORT**MIDT**Acronym for Marketing Information Data Tapesprovided by the Global Distribution Systems.**MSA**Acronym for Metropolitan Statistical Area. MSAshave at least one urban cluster with a populationof at least 50,000 plus adjacent territory that hasa high degree of social and economic integrationwith the core as measured by commuting ties.**Narrow-body jet**A jet aircraft with a single aisle designed forseating over 100 passengers.**Nonstop flight**Air travel between two points without stoppingat an intermediate airport.**Onboard passengers**The number of passengers transported on oneflight segment.**Origin and destination (O&D) passengers** Includes all originating and destinationpassengers. In the context of this report, itdescribes the passengers arriving and departingan airport.**Originating airport**The airport used by an air traveler for the firstenplanement of a commercial air flight.**Passenger Facility Charge**Fee imposed by airports of $1 to $4.50 onenplaning passengers. The fees are used byairports to fund FAA approved airportimprovement projects.**Pax**Abbreviation for passengers.**PDEW**Abbreviation for passengers daily each way.**Point-to-point**Nonstop service that does not stop at an airline’shub and whose primary purpose is to carry localtraffic rather than connecting traffic.**Referred passengers**Origin and destination passengers who begantheir trip from outside the catchment area.**Regional jet**A jet aircraft with a single aisle designed forseating fewer than 100 passengers.**Retained passengers (retention)**Passengers who use the local airport for air travelinstead of using a competing airport to originatethe air portion of their trip.**Stimulated passengers**Additional/“new” passengers that are generatedby the introduction of service or by decreases inairfares not included in the true market.**True market**Total number of air travelers, including those whoare using a competing airport, in the geographicarea served by Astoria Regional Airport. The truemarket estimate includes the size of the totalmarket and for specific destinations.**Turboprop aircraft**A type of engine that uses a jet engine to turn apropeller. Turboprops are often used on regionaland business aircraft because of their relativeefficiency at speeds slower than, and altitudeslower than, those of a typical jet.**U.S. DOT**Acronym for U.S. Department of Transportation.**Wide-body jet**A jet aircraft with two aisles designed for seatinggreater than 175 passengers.FOR MORE INFORMATION,PLEASE CONTACTMEAD&HUNT,INC.■497OAKWAYROAD,SUITE220■EUGENE,OR97401541.689.9997■AIRSERVICE@MEADHUNT.COM■WWW.MEADHUNT.COM