## CHAPTER 3 BASE YEAR AND FUTURE EMISSIONS

Introduction Emissions Inventories Base Year Emissions Future Emissions

### Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3 - 1 

### INTRODUCTION
This chapter summarizes emissions occurring in the Basin during the base year 1997, and projected emissions in the years 2006, 2010, 2020. More de tailed emission data analyses are presented in Appendix III of the 2003 AQMP. Additional emission inventories for other interim years (i .e., 1990, 1995, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2008) are also developed. Thes e inventory years are selected to comply with federal and state Clean Air Act requirements. Under the federal and state Clean Air Acts, the District is required to report the Basin’ s emission reduction progress for nonattainment pollutants. The base year to measure th e Basin’s progress is 1990 for both the federal and state Clean Air Acts. A 1990 emission inventory was r econstructed to reflect the most recent inventory methodol ogies. Adopted air quality ru les and regulations have current and future compliance dates. The 1997 base year emissions inventory reflects adopted air regulations with current comp liance dates as of 1997; whereas future baseline emissions inventories are based on a dopted air regulations with both current and future compliance dates. A list of Sout h Coast Air Quality Management District (District) rules and regulations that are part of the base year and future-year baseline emissions inventories is pres ented in Appendix III of the 2003 AQMP. The District is committed to implement these rules that are incorporated in the 2003 AQMP baseline emissions inventories.
The emissions inventory is divi ded into four major classifications: point, area, off-road, and on-road sources. The 1997 base year point source emissions are based principally on reported data from facilities. The area s ource and off-road emissions are estimated jointly by the California Air Resources Boar d (CARB) and the District. The on-road emissions are calculated using the CA RB EMFAC2002 emission factors and the transportation activity data provided by SCAG from their 2001 Regi onal Transportation Plan (2001 RTP). The 1990 i nventories were reconstruc ted/backcasted based on the same general methodology as th e 1997 inventory so as to re flect current knowledge. For example, EMFAC2002 was applied to the 1990 vehicle activity data to backcast 1990 on-road mobile emissions. This approach provides a more consistent basis for evaluation of emission reduction progress.

The future emission forecasts are base d on demographic and economic growth projections provided by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG). In addition, emission reducti ons resulting from CARB and Dist rict regulations adopted by October 31, 2002 are included in the emission forecasts.

### Final 2003 AQMP

3 - 2 

### EMISSIONS INVENTORIES
Baseline emissions data presented in this chapter are based on average annual day emissions (i.e., total annual emissions di vided by 365 days) and seasonally adjusted planning inventory emissions . The 2003 AQMP uses annual average day emissions to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a cont rol measure, to rank control measure implementation, and to perform PM 10 

### modeling and analysis. The planning inventory emissions developed to capture the emissi on levels during a resp ective poor air quality season are used to report emission reduction pr ogress as required by the federal and state Clean Air Acts. Three inventories are pr epared for the 2003 AQM P for the purpose of regulatory and SIP performance tracking and transportation conformity: an annual average inventory, a summer planning invent ory, and a winter pl anning inventory.
Detailed descriptions of the base year a nd future baseline emission inventories are presented in Appendix III of the 2003 AQMP - Base Year and Future Year Emission Inventories.
Attachment F to Appendix III ha s been added due to the recent significance placed on diesel emissions, showing va rious source categories’ emissions associated with combustion of diesel fuel.



### Stationary Sources
Stationary sources can be divi ded into two major subcategor ies: point and area sources. Point sources are generally large emitters with one or more emission sources at a permitted facility with an id entified location (e.g., power plants, refineries). Area sources generally consist of many small emission sources (e.g., residential water heaters, architectural coatings) which are distributed across the region. Their emissions over a given area may be calculated using socioec onomic data. For 1997, reported data are used for point sources emitting more than 4 t ons per year of any one of the criteria air contaminants (i.e., VOC, NOx, SOx, PM 10 

### ).
Area source emissions were jointly develope d by the CARB and the District for a total of 350 categories. Several special studies were conducted to improve the area source inventory. Specific source categories such as gasoline dispensing, industrial coatings, consumer products, residen tial wood combustion, compos ting, fugitive dust, and ammonia sourced were updated. (See Appendix III of the 2003 AQMP.)



### Mobile Sources
Mobile sources consist of two subcategorie s: on-road and off-road sources. On-road vehicle emissions are calculated using soci oeconomic data and tr ansportation models provided by SCAG, spatial distri bution data from Caltrans’ Direct Travel Impact Model (DTIM4), and EMFAC2002 inventories obt ained from the CARB reflecting SCAG’s

### Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3 - 3 revised baseline activity data (without 2001 RT P) and the activity data in 2001 RTP. The 1990 Census data combined with SCAG’s 1991 origin and destin ation survey data are used in SCAG’s 2001 RTP and in this AQMP. Major improvements made to EMFAC2002 include:
1. Vehicle classes were extended to 13;
2. Forecast capabilities were extended to 2040;
3. Redefined four evaporative proce sses. Evaporative estimations were improved;
4. Heavy-duty diesel truck emi ssions factors were updated.
Figure 3-1 compares the on-road base line emissions between EMFAC7G and EMFAC2002 used in the 1997 AQMP and 2003 AQMP respectively. It should be noted that the comparison reflects the change in methodology as well as adopted rules since the release of EMFAC7G.
Emissions from off-road vehicle categories (e.g ., trains, ships, construction equipment, utility engines) were devel oped primarily based on the es timated activity levels and emission factors. Special studies were c onducted to improve the emission estimates for aircraft, marine vessels, and Metrolink tr ain activity. (See Appendix III of 2003 AQMP.) More recent activity and popula tion data were applied in the 2003 AQMP to calculate the emissions of lawn and garden equipment and locomotive categories.



### Gridded Emissions
For air quality modeling purposes, the region is composed of the South Coast Air Basin, Coachella Valley, Antelope Valley, Ventura County (upwind area), and Mojave Desert. The modeling area is divided in to a grid system composed of 5 km by 5 km grid cells defined by Universal Transverse Mercator (U TM) coordinates. Both stationary and mobile emissions are allocated to individual grid cells within this syst em. In general, the modeling emission data features episodic-day emissions. Seasonal variations in activity levels are taken into account in developi ng gridded stationary point and area source emissions. Variations in temperature, hours of operation, speed of motor vehicles, or other factors are considered in developing gridded motor vehicle emissions. Hence, “gridded” emissions data used for ozone m odeling applications (C hapter 5) differ from the average annual day or pl anning inventory emission data in two respects: 1) the modeling region covers larger geographic areas than the Basin; and 2) emissions represent day-specific instead of average or seasonal conditions . In the 2003 AQMP, gridded inventories associated with selected ozone episodes have been prepared for air quality modeling analyses. In addition, gridded emi ssions for 1995 and 2006 were developed to calculate annual average PM 10 

### concentrations.

### Final 2003 AQMP

3 - 4 FIGURE 3-1 Comparison of Emissions Be tween EMFAC7G (1997 AQMP)
and EMFAC2002 (2003 AQMP)
* Year 2010 inventories incorporated rule s adopted since the release of EMFAC7G 165 443

212 519

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

1997 2010 VOCTons/Day
365 606

434 761

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

1997 2010 NOxTons/Day

14 20 21 19

0 5 10 15 20 25

1997 2010 PM10Tons/Day

1809 3625

2048 5092

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

1997 2010 COTons/Day

1997 AQMP 2003 AQMP *

### Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3 - 5 

### BASE YEAR EMISSIONS

Reconstructed 1990 Emission Inventories

The federal and state Clean Air Acts have specified the 1990 emission inventory as the baseline for measuring emission reduction progr ess. Therefore, inventories for year 1990 have been revised since the adoption of the 1997 AQMP and the 1999 Amendments to reflect improvements in emissions estimates and inventory methodology; this provides a consistent basi s for emission trends analysis. Most noticeably, a significant change in methodology has been made to on-road, off-road and PM 10 

### categories. For annual average day emissions (tons/day), year 1990 has the following inventory amounts.
VOC: 1,780 NOx: 1,592 PM10: 339



### 1997 Emission Inventory

Table 3-1 shows the 1997 emi ssions inventory. Figure 3-2 characterizes relative contributions by stationary and mobile source categories. Stationary sources are subdivided into point (e.g., chemical manufac turing, petroleum produc tion, and electric utilities) and area sources (e.g., architectural coatings, residential water heaters, and consumer products). Mobile s ources consist of on-road (e .g., light-duty passenger cars) and off-road sources (e.g., trains and ships).
Overall, total mobile source emissions acc ount for 65 percent of the VOC and 89 percent of the NO x 

### emissions for these two ozone-formi ng pollutants. The on-road mobile category alone contribut es about 45 and 63 perc ent of the VOC and NO x 

### emissions, respectively and approximately 76 percent of the CO.
Within stationary sources, poi nt sources contribute more NO x 

### and SO x 

### emissions than area sources. However, area sources play a major role in VOC emissions, emitting about three times more than point sources. Furthermore, area sources are the predominant source (82 percent) of directly emitted PM10 em issions due to inclus ion of travel-related activities (road dust).

### Final 2003 AQMP

3 - 6 TABLE 3-1A Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 1997 Base Year Average Annual Day (tons/day 1 )

Source Category VOC NO x CO SO x PM 10 Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 9 39 35 2 8 Waste Disposal 9 1 1 0 0 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 122 0 0 0 0 Petroleum Production and Marketing 63 0 5 4 1 Industrial Processes 20 0 4 0 6 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 118 0 0 0 0 Architectural Coatings 51 0 0 0 0 Others 3 0 0 0 0 Misc. Processes * 21 29 106 0 224 RECLAIM Sources 0 62 0 18 0 Total Stationary Sources 416 131 151 25 239 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 519 761 5092 4 19 Off-Road Vehicles 237 312 1410 29 21 Total Mobile Sources 756 1073 6502 33 40
TOTAL 1172 1204 6653 58 279

TABLE 3-1B Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 1997 Base Year Planning Inventory** (tons/day 1 )

SUMMER OZONE PRECURSORS WINTER PRECURSORS Source Category VOC NO x NO x CO Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 9 41 43 38 Waste Disposal 10 2 2 1 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 138 0 0 0 Petroleum Production and Marketing 63 1 1 5 Industrial Processes 24 0 0 4 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 118 0 0 0 Architectural Coatings 60 0 0 0 Others 4 0 0 0 Misc. Processes 17 21 38 204 RECLAIM SOURCES 0 63 63 0 Total Stationary Sources 443 128 147 252 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 506 717 827 5027 Off-Road Vehicles 273 320 304 1182 Total Mobile Sources 779 1037 1131 6209
TOTAL 1222 1165 1278 6461 * Travel related road dust included **Planning inventories are not used for PM 10 analysis 1 Values are rounded to nearest integer

### Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3 - 7 FIGURE 3-2 Relative Contribution By Source Categor y to the 1997 Average Annual Inventory VOC Emissions: 1,172 Tons/Day 28% 7%

45% 20%

NOx Emissions: 1,204 Tons/Day 4% 7% 63% 26%

CO Emissions: 6,653 Tons/Day 2% 1% 76% 21%

SOx Emissions: 58 Tons/Day 2% 41%

8% 49%

Directly Emitted PM10 Emissions: 279 Tons/Day 53% 29%

4%

7%

7%

Area On-Road Off-Road Entrained Road Dust Point Note: Consumer products and architectural coatings under the area source category represent 118 and 51 tons per day of VOC emissions, respectively.

### Final 2003 AQMP

3 - 8 In the mobile source category, emissions fro m on-road vehicles are much higher than those from off-road sources for a ll criteria pollutants except SO x 

### . This can be explained by the fact that the sulfur content in fuels used for off-road vehicles is relatively higher than those for on-road vehicles.
Figure 3-3 compares the 1997 inve ntory with the reconstructe d 1990 inventories. As can be seen, emission reductions are shown for all pollutants due to adopted air regulations.

*CO Emission values were divided by 10.



### FIGURE 3-3 Comparison of Reconstructed 1990 Inventory a nd 1997 Inventory 

### 0 150 300 450 600 750 900 1050 1200 1350 1500 1650 1800 1950

1990 1997 1990 1997 1990 1997 1990 1997 

### VOC NOx CO PM10

Point Area On-Road Off-Road 1780

1172 1592

1204 1059

665

339 279

### Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3 - 9 

### FUTURE EMISSIONS

Data Development
The milestone years 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2020 are the target years for emissions rate-of-progress estimates under the federal Clean Air Act and the state Clean Air Act. Due to the adoption of the NO x 

### and SO x 

### RECLAIM program in October 1993, future emissions are di vided into RECLAIM and non-RECLAIM emissions. Future NO x 

### and SO x 

### emissions from RECLAIM s ources are estimated based on their initial allocations as specified by District Rule 2002 –Allo cations for NOx and SOx. The forecasts for non-RE CLAIM emissions were derive d using: 1) emissions from the 1997 base year; 2) expected controls after implementation of District and CARB rules adopted by October 31, 2002; and 3) emissions growth in various source categories between the base and future years. Rules adopted after October 31, 2002 are treated as baseline adjustment measures for emissions reduction accounting purposes. A detailed description of the forecas ting methodology is provided in Appendix III of the 2003 AQMP.
Demographic growth forecasts for various socioeconomic categories (e.g., population, housing, employment by industr ies), developed by SCAG for their 2001 RTP, were used to estimate future emissions. Industry growth factors for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 were provided by SCAG. Growth factors fo r other interim years were interpolated between key forecast years. Table 3-2 summa rizes key socioeconomic parameters used in the 2003 AQMP for emissions inventory development.

TABLE 3-2 Baseline Socioeconomic Forecasts Used in 2003 AQMP

Category 1997 2010 (% Growth) * 2020 (% Growth) * Population (Millions) 14.3 16.5 (+15) 18.2 (+27)

Housing Units (Millions) 4.6 5.3 (+15) 5.9 (+18)

Total Employment (Millions) 6.3 7.8 (+24) 8.5 (+35)

Daily VMT (Millions) 296.8 387.4 (+31) 454.7 (+53)

____________________________________________________________________________________________ * Relative to 1997 

### Current forecasts indicate that this regi on will experience a popul ation growth of 15 percent by the year 2010 with a 31 percent incr ease in vehicle miles traveled (VMT).

### Final 2003 AQMP

3 - 10 The current projection for the year 2010 shows about 200,000 (1%) decrease in population, 200,000 (2.5%) decrease in total employment and 9.5 m illion mile (2.5%) increase in daily VMT forecast as comp ared to the projection from the 1997 AQMP.



### Summary of Baseline Emissions
Emission data by source categories (point, ar ea, on-road mobile and off-road mobile sources) and by pollutants are presented in Tables 3-3 th rough 3-5 for the years 2006, 2010, and 2020.
Without any additiona l controls, VOC, NO x 

### , and CO emissions are expected to decrease due to existing regulations, such as the LEV and oxygenated fuel programs, and the RECLAIM program. Figure 3-4 illustrate s the relative contribution to the 2010 inventory by source category. A comparison between Figures 3-2 and 3-4 indicates that the on-road mobile category continues to be a major contributor to CO and NO x 

### emissions. However, due to the adopted LEV regulation, by 2010 on-road mobile accounts for about 34 percent of total VOC em issions compared to 45 percent in 1997. Meanwhile, area sources become the majo r contributor to VOC emissions from 28 percent in 1997 to 36 percent in 2010.

### Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3 - 11 TABLE 3-3A Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2006 Base Year Average Annual Day (tons/day 1 )

Source Category VOC NO x CO SO x PM 10 Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 10 29 41 2 8 Waste Disposal 10 2 1 0 0 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 54 0 0 0 0 Petroleum Production and Marketing 37 0 5 5 1 Industrial Processes 18 0 6 0 7 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 104 0 0 0 0 Architectural Coatings 32 0 0 0 0 Others 3 0 0 0 0 Misc. Processes* 25 30 158 0 236 RECLAIM Sources 0 34 0 12 0 Total Stationary Sources 293 95 211 19 252 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 266 563 2602 5 20 Off-Road Vehicles 139 292 1160 36 21 Total Mobile Sources 405 855 3762 41 41
TOTAL 698 950 3973 60 293

TABLE 3-3B Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2006 Base Year Planning Inventory** (tons/day 1 )

SUMMER OZONE PRECURSORS WINTER PRECURSORS Source Cate g or y VOC NO x NO x CO Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 10 30 31 44 Waste Disposal 10 2 2 1 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 64 0 0 0 Petroleum Production and Marketing 37 1 1 5 Industrial Processes 21 0 0 6 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 104 0 0 0 Architectural Coatings 39 0 0 0 Others 3 0 0 0 Misc. Processes 19 21 42 320 RECLAIM Sources 0 36 36 0 Total Stationary Sources 307 90 112 376 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 261 536 605 2566 Off-Road Vehicles 162 303 283 965 Total Mobile Sources 423 839 888 3531
TOTAL 730 92 9 1000 390 7 * Travel related road dust included **Planning inventories are not used for PM 10 analysis 1 Values are rounded to nearest integer

### Final 2003 AQMP

3 - 12 TABLE 3-4A Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2010 Base Year Average Annual Day (tons/day 1 ) Source Category VOC NO x CO SO x PM 10 Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 10 25 43 2 9 Waste Disposal 10 2 1 0 0 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 61 0 0 0 0 Petroleum Production and Marketing 35 0 5 5 1 Industrial Processes 20 0 6 0 8 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 108 0 0 0 0 Architectural Coatings 24 0 0 0 0 Others 3 0 0 0 0 Misc. Processes* 25 28 162 0 243 RECLAIM Sources 0 34 0 12 0 Total Stationary Sources 296 89 217 19 261 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 212 434 2048 2 21 Off-Road Vehicles 122 257 1094 39 19 Total Mobile Sources 334 691 3142 41 40
TOTAL 630 780 3359 60 301

TABLE 3-4B Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2010 Base Year Planning Inventory** (tons/day 1 )

SUMMER OZONE PRECURSORS WINTER PRECURSORS Source Category VOC NO x NO x CO Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 11 26 27 47 Waste Disposal 10 2 2 1 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 72 0 0 0 Petroleum Production and Marketing 36 1 1 5 Industrial Processes 23 0 0 6 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 108 0 0 0 Architectural Coatings 28 0 0 0 Others 3 0 0 0 Misc. Processes 19 19 40 325 RECLAIM Sources 0 36 36 0 Total Stationary Sources 310 84 106 384 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 210 414 466 2019 Off-Road Vehicles 139 266 248 912 Total Mobile Sources 349 680 714 2931
TOTAL 659 764 820 3315 * Travel related road dust included **Planning inventories are not used for PM 10 analysis 1 Values are rounded to nearest integer

### Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3 - 13 TABLE 3-5A Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2020 Base Year Average Annual Day (tons/day 1 ) Source Category VOC NO x CO SO x PM 10 Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 12 27 49 2 9 Waste Disposal 10 2 1 0 1 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 82 0 0 0 0 Petroleum Production and Marketing 37 0 5 5 1 Industrial Processes 26 0 9 0 9 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 118 0 0 0 0 Architectural 27 0 0 0 0 Others 3 0 0 0 0 Misc. Processes* 25 27 170 0 256 RECLAIM Sources 0 34 0 12 0 Total Stationary Sources 340 90 234 19 276 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 130 206 1097 3 24 Off-Road Vehicles 114 241 1104 54 18 Total Mobile Sources 244 447 2201 57 42
TOTAL 584 537 2435 76 318
TABLE 3-5B Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2020 Base Year Planning Inventory** (tons/day 1 )

SUMMER OZONE PRECURSORS WINTER PRECURSORS Source Category VOC NOx NOx CO Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 12 29 30 53 Waste Disposal 10 2 2 1 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 99 0 0 0 Petroleum Production and Marketing 37 1 1 5 Industrial Processes 31 1 0 9 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 118 0 0 0 Architectural 32 0 0 0 Others 3 0 0 0 Misc. Processes 19 18 39 340 RECLAIM Sources 0 36 36 0 Total Stationary Sources 361 86 108 408 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 131 196 220 1078 Off-Road Vehicles 125 250 232 928 Total Mobile Sources 256 446 452 2006
TOTAL 617 532 560 2414 * Travel related road dust included **Planning inventories are not used for PM 10 analysis 1 Values are rounded to nearest integer

### Final 2003 AQMP

3 - 14 FIGURE 3-4 Relative Contribution By Source Categor y to the 2010 Average Annual Inventory VOC Emissions: 630 Tons/Day 36% 11%

34% 19%

NOx Emissions: 780 Tons/Day 5%

6% 56% 33%

CO Emissions: 3,359 Tons/Day 5%

1%

61% 33%

Directly Emitted PM10 Emissions: 301 Tons/Day 49% 33%

5%

6%

7%

Area On-Road Off-Road Entrained Road Dust Point Note: Consumer products and architectural coatings under the area source category represent 108 and 24 tons per day of VOC emissions, respectively.

SOx Emissions: 60 Tons/Day 64%

4% 30%

2%

### Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3 - 15 

### Contributions by Responsible Agencies
Figures 3-5A and 3-5B illustrate rela tive emission contributions by agency responsibility. Figure 3-5A shows that s ources under CARB and U.S. EPA jurisdictions account for about 80% of ozone precu rsors (i.e., total of VOC and NO x 

### ) for year 2010. Figure 3-5B indicates that District and CARB are equally responsible for PM 10 

### and PM 2.5 

### emissions. Figures 3-5C and 3-5D illust rate source categories in VOC and NOx by responsible agencies. For VOC, light- & medium-duty vehicl es and consumer products constitute the larg est sources under CARB jurisd iction; while cleaning and surface coatings are the largest contributor (11 %) to emissions under the District’s jurisdiction.
For NOx emissions, the transportation sector contributes to the largest portion of emissions under CARB and U. S. EPA jurisdictions; while RECLAIM facilities constitute the largest portion under the District jurisdiction.

### Final 2003 AQMP

3 - 16 FIGURE 3-5A – Relative Contribution by Agency to 2010 VOC and NOx Planning Inventory

FIGURE 3-5B – Relative Contribution by Agency to PM2.5 and PM10 Annual Average Inventory PM2.5 District

37%

EPA 20% CARB 35%

N/A 8%

N/A: salt and soil/misc. ammonia PM10 District

51%

EPA 14% CARB 28%

N/A 7%

N/A: salt and soil/misc. ammonia 2010 VOC Emissions = 659 Tons/Day District

30% CARB 66% EPA 4%

2010 NOx Emissions = 764 Tons/Day District

11% CARB 56% EPA 33%

### Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3 - 17 FIGURE 3-5C - 2010 VOC Emissions by Ma jor Source Categories by Agency and Category 66% CARB Consumer Products

16%

Light & Medium Duty Vehicles 27% Off-Road Equipment

9%

Recreational Boats/Vehicles 6%

5%

Others

3%

HeavyDuty Vehicles

4% EPA Aircraft, Ships, Train 2% Off-Road Equipment & On-Road Vehicles

2%

30% District Others 5% Fuel Combustion 2% Architectural

Coatings

4% Industrial Processes 3%

Cleaning and Surface Coatings 11% Petroleum Production

5%

( 195 tons ) ( 32 tons ) ( 432 tons )

### Final 2003 AQMP

3 - 18 FIGURE 3-5D - 2010 NOx Emissions by Ma jor Source Categories by Agency and Category 56% CARB Off-Road Equipment 5%

Others

1% Recreational Boats/Vehicles 2%

27% 21%

Heavy-Duty Vehicles & Others Light & Medium Duty Vehicles

33% EPA Aircraft, Ships, Trains 13%

Off-Road Equipment & On-Road Vehicles 20%

11% District 3%

Others 1%
RECLAIM

5% Residential Fuel Combustion 2% Non-Residential Fuel Combustion ( 424 tons ) ( 254 tons )

( 86 tons )

### Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3 - 19 

### The Impact of Growth
To illustrate the impact of growth, year 2010 no-growth emissions were estimated by removing the growth factors from the 2010 base line emissions. Figure 3-6 presents the comparison of the 2010 projected emi ssions with and without growth.

FIGURE 3-6 2010 Emissions Forecast With and Without Growth
Annual Average Day 630

525 780

659

336
278

60 54 301

256

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

G NG G NG G NG G NG G NG

Point Area Road Dust Off-Road On-Road VOC NOx CO** SOx PM10

*G = Emissions with growth; NG = Emissions without growth ** CO emissions are divided by 10