U.S. Department of 

Transportation

Federal Railroad 

Administration

Risk Analyses for the IDOT Positive Train Control 

System to Determine Optimum Communications 

Timeout: Comparison to Cab Signal Systems with

Continuous Train Stop and with Speed Control

Office of Research

and Development

Washington, DC 20590

DOT/FRA/ORD-09/21 Final Report

November 2009
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4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE

Risk Analyses for the IDOT Positive Train Control System to Determine Optimum 

Communications Timeout: Comparison to Cab Signal Systems with Continuous Train Stop 

and with Speed Control

5. FUNDING NUMBERS

6. AUTHOR(S)

Alan Bing, Ph.D.,* Eric Sherrock**

7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)

 *ICF Consulting **ENSCO, Inc.

 33 Hayden Avenue 5400 Port Royal Road

 Lexington, MA 02421 Springfield, VA 22151

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REPORT NUMBER

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U.S. Department of Transportation 

Federal Railroad Administration

Office of Research and Development

Washington, DC 20590

10. SPONSORING/MONITORING

AGENCY REPORT NUMBER

DOT/FRA/ORD-09/21

11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

Program Manager: Terry Tse

12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

This document is available to the public through the FRA Web site. 

12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE

13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words)

This project examines the influence of the communication timeout threshold and latency of a positive train control (PTC) system 

on its overall safety performance as compared with a cab signal system with continuous Automatic Train Stop and a fouraspect cab signal system with speed control, or an automatic train control system. The analysis was based on average daily traffic 

on the IDOT PTC corridor, which was composed of six passenger trains, between 0.86 and 1.07 PTC-equipped freight trains, and 

between 0.36 and 2.30 unequipped freight trains, depending on the season of the year. Maximum speeds considered were 110 

miles per hour (mph) for passenger traffic and 60 mph for freight traffic. The latency values varied from 5 to 20 seconds (s) and

timeout values varied from 20 to 360 s.

Conclusions from this risk assessment are that for the traffic volume and traffic mix, the PTC latency and timeout in the ranges 

assumed in this study did not have a material effect on risk. Instead, nonsafety considerations such as route capacity, delay 

reduction, and cost may be the governing factors in the requirements for timeout and latency, instead of safety, for PTC 

communication network and design.

14. SUBJECT TERMS

Positive train control, IDOT Corridor, Timeout, Latency, Risk Assessment

15. NUMBER OF PAGES

491

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NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89)

Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18

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ii

METRIC/ENGLISH CONVERSION FACTORS

ENGLISH TO METRIC METRIC TO ENGLISH

LENGTH (APPROXIMATE) LENGTH (APPROXIMATE)

1 inch (in) = 2.5 centimeters (cm) 1 millimeter (mm) = 0.04 inch (in)

1 foot (ft) = 30 centimeters (cm) 1 centimeter (cm) = 0.4 inch (in)

1 yard (yd) = 0.9 meter (m) 1 meter (m) = 3.3 feet (ft)

1 mile (mi) = 1.6 kilometers (km) 1 meter (m) = 1.1 yards (yd)

1 kilometer (km) = 0.6 mile (mi)

AREA (APPROXIMATE) AREA (APPROXIMATE)

1 square inch (sq in, in2) = 6.5 square centimeters (cm2) 1 square centimeter (cm2) = 0.16 square inch (sq in, in2) 

1 square foot (sq ft, ft2) = 0.09 square meter (m2) 1 square meter (m2) = 1.2 square yards (sq yd, yd2) 

1 square yard (sq yd, yd2) = 0.8 square meter (m2) 1 square kilometer (km2) = 0.4 square mile (sq mi, mi2) 

1 square mile (sq mi, mi2) = 2.6 square kilometers (km2) 10,000 square meters (m2) = 1 hectare (ha) = 2.5 acres

1 acre = 0.4 hectare (he) = 4,000 square meters (m2) 

MASS - WEIGHT (APPROXIMATE) MASS - WEIGHT (APPROXIMATE)

1 ounce (oz) = 28 grams (gm) 1 gram (gm) = 0.036 ounce (oz)

1 pound (lb) = 0.45 kilogram (kg) 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2 pounds (lb)

1 short ton = 2,000 pounds 

(lb)

= 0.9 tonne (t) 1 tonne (t) =

=

1,000 kilograms (kg)

1.1 short tons

VOLUME (APPROXIMATE) VOLUME (APPROXIMATE)

1 teaspoon (tsp) = 5 milliliters (ml) 1 milliliter (ml) = 0.03 fluid ounce (fl oz)

1 tablespoon (tbsp) = 15 milliliters (ml) 1 liter (l) = 2.1 pints (pt)

1 fluid ounce (fl oz) = 30 milliliters (ml) 1 liter (l) = 1.06 quarts (qt)

1 cup (c) = 0.24 liter (l) 1 liter (l) = 0.26 gallon (gal)

1 pint (pt) = 0.47 liter (l)

1 quart (qt) = 0.96 liter (l)

1 gallon (gal) = 3.8 liters (l)

1 cubic foot (cu ft, ft3) = 0.03 cubic meter (m3) 1 cubic meter (m3) = 36 cubic feet (cu ft, ft3) 

1 cubic yard (cu yd, yd3) = 0.76 cubic meter (m3) 1 cubic meter (m3) = 1.3 cubic yards (cu yd, yd3)

TEMPERATURE (EXACT) TEMPERATURE (EXACT)

[(x-32)(5/9)] °F = y °C [(9/5) y + 32] °C = x °F

QUICK INCH - CENTIMETER LENGTH CONVERSION

0 1 2 3 4 5

Inches

Centimeters 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 987 1110 1312

QUICK FAHRENHEIT - CELSIUS TEMPERATURE CONVERSIO

 -40° -22° -4° 14° 32° 50° 68° 86° 104° 122° 140° 158° 176° 194° 212°

 

°F

 °C -40° -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50° 60° 70° 80° 90° 100°

For more exact and or other conversion factors, see NIST Miscellaneous Publication 286, Units of Weights and 

Measures. Price $2.50 SD Catalog No. C13 10286 Updated 6/17/98
iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors of this study would like to express their gratitude to Mr. Terry Tse of the Federal 

Railroad Administration’s Office of Research and Development for his support of this study as 

well as his insightful guidance throughout the effort. The authors also wish to express their 

gratitude to Ms. Karen McClure and Mr. Wayne Minger for their thorough review of all 

calculations and drafts of this document. Their meticulous consideration of the material proved 

to be an invaluable service. 

The authors would like to acknowledge the efforts of Mr. Don Wiles, Dr. Lori Kaufman, and Mr. 

Paul Stangas of Booz Allen Hamilton for the critical inputs on some of the technical aspects and 

design considerations of the control systems, detailed information on the IDOT corridor, and 

their analysis of accident scenarios. The information they provided to the analysis proved to be 

essential. The authors would also like to thank all of those affiliated with the North American 

Joint Positive Train Control Program who took the time to answer questions and honor the 

requests of those participating in this analysis effort.
iv

Contents

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................... 1 

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 6 

1.1 Background ............................................................................................................................... 6 

1.2 Problem Statement .................................................................................................................... 7 

 1.2.1 Analysis Objectives and General Approach ................................................................ 9 

1.3 Report Overview .......................................................................................................................... 10 

2. Description of Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 11 

2.1 General Approach ..................................................................................................................... 11 

2.2 Risk Analysis and Model Description ...................................................................................... 14 

2.3 Representing the Corridor and Control System in the Models ................................................. 18 

 2.3.1 Temporal and Spatial Variations on the IDOT Corridor ............................................. 18 

 2.3.2 Operating States ........................................................................................................... 20 

2.4 Accident Scenarios Included in the Analysis ........................................................................... 23 

2.5 Key Model Inputs ..................................................................................................................... 26 

 2.5.1 Route, Traffic, and Train Data ..................................................................................... 26 

 2.5.2 Train-to-Train Collision Frequencies and Distribution ............................................... 26 

 2.5.3 Collision Accident Consequences ............................................................................... 28 

 2.5.4 Frequencies and Consequences for Other Accident Scenarios .................................... 28 

 2.5.5 Preventability Factors .................................................................................................. 31 

2.6 Measures of Risk Calculated by the Model .............................................................................. 33 

3. Risk Analysis Results ......................................................................................................................... 35

3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 35 

3.2 Summary of Results – IDOT PTC Timeout and Latency ......................................................... 37 

 3.2.1 Effect of Varying Timeout on IDOT PTC Safety Performance .................................. 37 

 3.2.2 Effect of Latency on Risk ............................................................................................ 39 

3.3 Comparisons among IDOT PTC, Cab Signals with ATS, and Cab Signals with ATC ............ 39 

3.4 Sensitivity Analyses ................................................................................................................. 48 

 3.4.1 Sensitivity of Results to Estimated Collision Preventability ....................................... 48 

 3.4.2 Sensitivity of Results to Severity Reduction ............................................................... 51 

3.5 Closing Remarks ....................................................................................................................... 52 

4. Conclusions and Recommendations ................................................................................................... 53
v

Contents

 Appendix A: Description of Risk Model and Calculations in Worksheet 1

 – Segment Definitions and Timeout Effects ................................................................ A-1 

 

 Appendix B: Description of Calculations in Worksheet 2 – Collision Probability and

 Preventability ............................................................................................................... B-1 

 Appendix C: Description of Calculations in Worksheet 3 – Risk Calculations ................................ C-1 

 

 Appendix D: IDOT Corridor ............................................................................................................. D-1 

 Appendix E: Accident Descriptions .................................................................................................. E-1 

 Appendix F: Model Inputs – Sources and Analyses .......................................................................... F-1 

 Appendix G: Model Calculations ...................................................................................................... G-1 

 
vi

Figures

Figure 1.1 General Depiction of IDOT PTC System .............................................................................. 7 

Figure 2.1 Risk Zones for Equipped Train Approaching a Point of Conflict ........................................ 16 

Figure 3.1 Results of Sensitivity Analysis Comparing Total Accident Costs for Each Train Control

System Considered ............................................................................................................... 50 
vii

Tables

Table 2.1 Traffic Data by Sub-corridor and Season ............................................................................. 27 

Table 2.2 CTC Reference Case Accident Frequencies ........................................................................ 31 

Table 2.3 Preventability Factors for IDOT PTC and Cab Signals with ATS/ATC ............................. 32 

Table 3.1 List of Risk Analyses Performed and Included in the Results Workbook in 

Appendix G .......................................................................................................................... 36 

Table 3.2 Effect of Varying Timeout on Risk Associated with IDOT PTC with Latency of

10 Seconds ........................................................................................................................... 38 

Table 3.3 Effect of Varying Latency on Risk Associated with IDOT PTC with Timeout of 120

Seconds ................................................................................................................................ 39 

Table 3.4 Comparison of Total Accident Costs for IDOT PTC (Timeout = 120 s, Latency = 10 

s), UP Cab Signal with ATS (70% Preventability) and NEC Cab Signal with ATC 

(85% Preventability) Base Cases, PTC-Relevant Accidents ............................................... 41 

Table 3.5 Comparison of Casualties for IDOT PTC (Timeout = 120 s, Latency = 10 s), 

UP Cab Signal with ATS (70% Preventability) and NEC Cab Signal with ATC 

(85% Preventability) Base Cases, PTC-Relevant Accidents ............................................... 44 

Table 3.6 Comparison of Accident Counts for IDOT PTC (Timeout = 120 s, Latency = 10 s), 

UP Cab Signal with ATS (70% Preventability) and NEC Cab Signal with ATC 

(85% Preventability) Base Cases, PTC-Relevant Accidents ............................................... 45 

Table 3.7 Comparison of Total Accident Costs for Conventional CTC, IDOT PTC (Timeout = 

120 s, Latency = 10 s), UP Cab Signal with ATS (70% Preventability) and NEC 

Cab Signal with ATC (85% Preventability) Base Cases, PTC-Relevant Accidents ............ 47 

Table 3.8 Results of Cab Signal Collision Preventability Sensitivity Analyses .................................. 50 

Table 3.9 Comparison of Total Accident Costs for IDOT PTC (Timeout = 120 s, Latency = 10 s),

UP Cab Signal with ATS (70% Preventability) and NEC Cab Signal with ATC

(85% Preventability) Base Cases with and without Severity Reduction, PTC-Relevant 

Accidents .............................................................................................................................. 51 
1 

Executive Summary

Background

Positive train control (PTC) refers to a system of train control involving the application of 

wireless communication technologies, locomotive tracking with global positioning system 

(GPS)/inertial navigation systems, and central processors. The functional capabilities of PTC are 

to prevent collisions by enforcing movement authorities, to prevent derailments as a result of

overspeed, and to prevent violations of work zones leading to casualties among roadway 

workers. 

In January 1998, the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), in conjunction with the Association 

of American Railroads (AAR) and the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT), began to 

develop a high-speed PTC project for the St. Louis–Chicago corridor. These efforts were 

integrated into the North American Joint Positive Train Control Program (NAJPTC), whose 

major participants included FRA, AAR and the Transportation Technology Center, Inc. (TTCI), 

IDOT, the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak), and major freight railroads. The 

implementation of PTC on the St. Louis–Chicago corridor, called the IDOT PTC system in this 

report, was intended to be on the St. Louis Line of the Union Pacific Railroad (UP) between 

Ridgely, IL, and Mazonia, IL, a total of 120 miles currently equipped with a centralized traffic 

control (CTC) system.

In general, two types of messages are communicated through the PTC digital radio system—

those carrying functional data (e.g., location and speed of equipped trains, train movement 

authorities, track circuit status, switch status, etc.) and safety heartbeats. The heartbeat message 

generated by each system element informs other elements, including the central office system, 

that the originating system is healthy and that the communication is intact, thereby achieving a 

closed loop. During development of the IDOT PTC, it was determined that the throughput of the 

data radios originally specified for use in the system was not sufficient to support the message 

load generated by the IDOT PTC system as it performed its functions. As a result, messages 

may not be carried through properly when the communication network is loaded with the 

combination of functional data and safety heartbeats. 

Two fundamental measures of communication system performance are defined as follows: 

• Timeout – the length of time the PTC system detects no communication or heartbeat message 

from a device within the system before it declares a “fault condition” and imposes 

appropriate actions for fail-safe protection. 

• Latency – the length of time passing between when a communications message is initiated at 

the point of origin and when appropriate actions corresponding to that message are initiated 

at the destination system. This time includes the response time of any PTC subsystems 

involved in the message path and communications queuing delays. 

Naturally, a quicker detection of a problem reduces the risk of PTC failing to respond correctly 

to a hazard. However, more frequent heartbeat messages place a heavier load on the 

communication network, which could lead to communications overload, delayed messages, and 

timeout events. The requirement of the communication network will be driven largely by the 
2 

heartbeat frequency needed to ensure safe operation. If the total traffic (including heartbeats) 

exceeds the communication system capacity, this will generally lead to message loss and 

therefore unnecessary forced train stops due to unknown equipment states as a result of the 

closed-loop design. 

Given the importance of communications system performance to the safety and operability of 

PTC systems, FRA initiated this risk analysis to investigate optimum communications timeout 

and latency values that would ensure safety while minimizing demands on the radio 

communications network as a result of heartbeat and functional messages. The approach to this 

analysis was based on FRA’s Standards for Processor-Based Signal and Train Control Systems

(49 CFR Part 236, Subpart H, effective March 7, 2005). 

This standard requires the operator of a rail line segment equipped with a novel system to submit 

a risk assessment that demonstrates that rail operations under the novel system are at least as safe 

as they were under the train control system previously used on the line segment. If installation of 

the novel system is accompanied by substantial changes in traffic mix, traffic density, and/or 

speed, then the risk comparison must be conducted with an alternative base case representing the 

line equipped with a conventional train control system that would normally be used under the 

proposed operating conditions. The specific requirements for the risk analysis and safety 

performance are contained in paragraphs 236.907(7), 236.909, and Appendix B of the rule cited 

above. 

With this risk analysis approach, the safety performance of the IDOT PTC system with different 

timeout and latency values was compared with two conventional train control systems that would 

provide adequate safety for proposed operations on the IDOT test corridor, including 110-miles 

per hour passenger service. These base case control systems were a cab signal system with 

continuous automatic train stop (ATS) system and a four-aspect cab signal system with speed 

control or an automatic train control (ATC) system, configured as currently used in Amtrak’s 

Northeast Corridor (NEC) for high-speed passenger trains. The ATS system was the base case 

originally used in the IDOT PTC risk assessment for setting the level of risk that the proposed 

PTC system would not exceed. This document focuses on the comparison among the IDOT PTC 

system operated with a mix of equipped and unequipped trains, the cab signal/ATS system, and 

the NEC cab signal/ATC system operated with all trains equipped. 

After the initiation of this study, the development of the IDOT PTC was terminated, and a new 

PTC development program was initiated at TTCI in Pueblo, CO, to build on the previous 

successes of the NAJPTC program. However, for the purpose of this analysis—which was 

intended to determine the optimum latency and timeout periods—using the IDOT PTC territory 

as a test case is still valid.

Analysis

The relevant train accident risks associated with the IDOT PTC system operated with different 

timeout values were compared with the same set of risks associated with the ATS base case and 

the NEC ATC base case control systems operating on the same IDOT corridor with the same 

traffic levels. The comparison provided a determination of the maximum timeout that could 
3 

exist in the PTC system that would introduce no greater level of risk than the risk associated with 

ATS or ATC base cases. Because there is very limited operating experience with the NAJPTC 

system, the risk estimates for the IDOT PTC case must be built from the bottom–up by using 

estimates of the failure modes as well as reliability and availability of individual system 

components and subsystems. Many of these values will not be known with any accuracy, and 

confidence in the end result could be much lower than for the base cases, which in turn means 

there will be a lower confidence in the comparison between base cases and the IDOT PTC case. 

To minimize this comparability problem, the methodologies used that make the risk analyses for 

the base cases and the IDOT PTC case must start from a common reference point and follow 

parallel paths as much as possible. This reference point is designated as the reference case. An 

approach of this nature has been adopted for this analysis and is described in detail within this 

report.

The risks associated with the cab signal system with ATS and the cab signal system with ATC, 

both operated on the IDOT corridor, and the IDOT PTC were determined by considering 

accident scenarios in which PTC or cab signals with ATS or ATC could reduce the frequency or 

severity of accidents. These scenarios include train-to-train collisions (those occurring between 

trains on the same main-line tracks), intrusion collisions, collisions at diamonds, overspeeds, 

work zone violations, grade crossing accidents, and incidents involving broken rails. The 

analysis omitted most derailment accidents caused by track and equipment mechanical failures 

(except broken rails) and several miscellaneous accidents such as fires and collisions with 

obstructions other than rail vehicles and shifted loads. The analysis did not include the effects of 

operating in fallback mode after a known failure of on-train or wayside equipment, because the 

fallback method of operation (conventional CTC with wayside signals) and the train-miles 

operated in fallback mode were assumed to be the same in each case and would not affect the 

comparisons. 

Results

The following conclusions were drawn from the analysis of the systems considered in this effort: 

• A series of model runs were performed to explore the effects of varying timeout and latency 

on the safety performance as measured by the dollar value of harm. On the basis of this 

analysis, the following statements can be made:

– When the IDOT PTC system is considered, even when the elevated risk during timeout is 

taken into account, the overall impact of this risk increase on the overall risk of operating 

the corridor is very small. Timeout does not have a material effect on the overall safety 

performance of the IDOT corridor. This is because the aggregate train-miles operated in 

the timeout state is very small, not exceeding 0.5% of total train-miles, and the 

heightened risk over this period, although significant, cannot have much impact on the 

overall result.

– It is difficult to recommend a timeout value based on safety alone, and other factors such 

as operations benefits should be considered, such as the avoidance of delays because of

slow system response or unnecessary timeout events. Note that this conclusion applies 

only to this corridor, and the conclusion in areas of higher traffic density or with more 

unequipped trains could be different. 
4 

– As with timeout, the effects of varying latency are limited and can be attributed primarily 

to the increase in collisions between equipped and unequipped train as latency increases, 

with limited additional risk increments as a result of increasing risk from intrusion 

collisions and other accidents. 

• The IDOT PTC operating with a timeout of 120 seconds (s) and a latency of 10 s is estimated 

to reduce accident costs by 24 percent when compared with ATS base case and 14 percent 

when compared with the ATC base case for the set of accident scenarios analyzed. These 

results indicate that the IDOT PTC is likely to pass the test of providing a level of safety 

equivalent to or better than either of the base case control systems considered in this analysis. 

On the basis of accident costs over a 10-year period, the performance of ATC base case lies 

between that of the IDOT PTC and the ATS base case; the analysis resulted in the ATC base 

case showing total estimated costs of $0.44 million (14 percent) greater than those for IDOT 

PTC and $0.42 million (12 percent) less than those for the ATS base case. 

The principal sources of the advantage of the IDOT PTC system over the UP cab signal 

system with ATS and the NEC cab signal system with ATC are fewer train-to-train 

collisions, overspeed derailments, and work zone incursions. The difference in train-to-train 

collisions between the IDOT PTC and the UP ATS base case is much more pronounced than 

the difference between the IDOT PTC and the NEC ATC base case. Explanations for these 

differences are provided in the report. Passenger train costs dominate the results. Freight 

train accident costs on this corridor are almost insignificant. However, it should be noted 

that there are only an average of about two freight train trips over the corridor (averaging 

Sub-corridors and seasons) versus six passenger train trips. 

• Cab signals with ATS/ATC exhibited a small advantage (lower accident costs) over PTC 

only for freight trains involved in train-to-train collisions and in intrusion and broken rail 

accidents. The total advantage these systems offer in terms of accident costs are massively 

offset by the advantage of PTC in all other accident scenarios analyzed. It is also noteworthy 

that the IDOT PTC advantage is still substantial even if the benefits from additional PTC 

functionality (overspeed, work zones, and grade crossings) are disregarded. 

• The results for injuries and fatalities in accidents show the same pattern as overall accident 

costs.

• Passenger train costs dominate the results for all control systems, given the high cost of 

passenger casualties and damage to passenger equipment. Freight train accident costs on this 

corridor have little influence on the overall results. However, it should be noted that there 

are only an average of about two freight train trips over the corridor (averaging Sub-corridors 

and seasons) versus six passenger train trips. 

• PTC is only able to prevent a relatively small fraction of grade crossing collisions and broken 

rail derailments. This is mainly because the detectable hazardous conditions (total rail break 

before train arrival, or malfunctioning crossing warning systems) are a minor part of the 

overall risk from those scenarios. However, the financial benefit from preventing even a 

small fraction of these accidents is substantial.

• Both PTC and cab signal-based systems with trains operating at up to 110 mph provide a 

substantial safety improvement over the reference case of conventional CTC at speeds up to 
5 

79 mph (as the line is currently being operated). If the acceptability criterion had been a 

comparison with the current operation, then any of the systems would be acceptable. 

The analyses performed for this study also have limitations that should be borne in mind when 

reviewing the results and conclusions quoted above. These are: 

• The analysis and accident costs presented include only PTC-relevant accidents. The costs for 

accident risks that are not changed in any way by PTC or the base case control systems are 

not included in the total. These include most accidents due to track and equipment failures 

(except broken rails), and a number of miscellaneous causes such a fires and collisions with 

obstructions other than rail vehicles or vehicle lading. Thus, the percentage differences 

between the systems somewhat overstate the overall impact of train control system 

characteristics on safety.

• Neither the PTC nor base case analyses include operations during the fallback mode, in this 

case, conventional CTC. This mode was omitted from analysis, because both train-miles and 

accident risks during fallback operation were assumed to be the same for both cases, thus 

inclusion would not affect comparisons between analysis cases. However, potential 

availability performance of the three systems was not analyzed and may in fact differ 

between the systems. This could have a significant effect on comparative safety. 

• The analysis does not fully meet the requirements in 49 CFR Part 236 for a risk analysis of a 

PTC system to show that the system is as safe as or better than an applicable base case. Most 

notably the analysis treats the PTC system as a “black box” with specific capabilities and 

performance characteristics and lacks analyses to demonstrate that the system in fact delivers 

this performance. In addition, more thorough analyses to confirm and refine input 

parameters would be required. 
6 

1. Introduction

1.1 Background

Positive train control (PTC) refers to a system of train control involving the application of 

wireless communication technologies, locomotive position tracking using global positioning 

system (GPS)/inertial navigation systems, and central processors. The functional capabilities of 

PTC are to prevent train collisions, derailments as a result of overspeed, and incidents involving 

roadway workers operating within the equipment’s authority limits. In January 1998, the Federal 

Railroad Administration (FRA), in conjunction with the Association of American Railroads 

(AAR) and the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT), began to develop a high-speed 

PTC project for the St. Louis–Chicago corridor. These efforts were integrated into the North 

American Joint Positive Train Control (NAJPTC) program, whose major participants included 

FRA, AAR, and the Transportation Technology Center, Inc. (TTCI), IDOT, the National 

Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak), and major freight railroads. The resulting system will 

be referred to as the IDOT PTC system in this report.

The implementation of the IDOT PTC system on the St. Louis–Chicago corridor, heretofore 

referred to as the IDOT PTC, was intended to be on portions of the Joliet and Springfield 

Subdivisions of the Union Pacific Railroad (UP) between Ridgely, IL, and Mazonia, IL, a total 

of 120 miles (mi). The territory is equipped with a centralized traffic control (CTC) system with 

PTC envisioned as an overlay to the current control system. This corridor is referred to as the 

IDOT PTC Test Corridor in this report. 

The implementation of IDOT PTC requires that trains be equipped with position monitoring 

systems and direct digital radio communications with the central processor in the control center. 

The PTC system monitors both equipped and unequipped trains. Unequipped trains are 

monitored through the block occupancy information from conventional track circuits transmitted 

to the PTC central processor via wayside interface units (WIUs). A simplified diagram depicting 

the PTC system is provided in Figure 1.1.
7 

Figure 1.1. General Depiction of IDOT PTC System 

It would not be practical to equip all freight trains operating on the IDOT test corridor with PTC. 

The proposed application of PTC by train type was as follows: 

• All Amtrak passenger trains are to be PTC equipped 100 percent of the time. 

• Seventy-five percent of UP local freight trains are to be PTC equipped. 

• No UP through general freight or grain trains will be PTC equipped. 

Generally, the General Code of Operating Rules (GCOR) adopted by most western railroads and 

UP’s special instructions govern those train movements not affected by PTC. Appropriate 

additions and amendments to these rules would apply to operations of PTC-equipped trains in an 

active PTC system.

1.2 Problem Statement

This study is concerned with the performance of the communications network that provides the 

connections among trains, wayside devices, and the PTC server in the central office, in particular 

focusing on the potential for communications delays to have an adverse effect on the safety 

performance of the PTC system.

In general, two types of messages are communicated through the PTC system—those carrying 

functional data (e.g., location and speed of equipped trains, train movement authorities, track 

circuit status, switch status) and safety heartbeats. The heartbeat message generated by each 

system element informs other elements, including the central office system, that the originating 

system is healthy and that the communication is intact, thereby achieving a closed loop. During 

development of the IDOT PTC, it was determined that the throughput of the data radios 

originally specified for use in the system was not sufficient to support the total message load 
8 

generated in the IDOT PTC system as it performs all its design functions. Messages may be 

delayed or the communication system will declare a fault condition when the communication 

network is overloaded with the combination of functional data and safety heartbeats. Two 

fundamental measures of communication system performance are defined as follows: 

• Timeout – the length of time that the PTC system detects no communication or a heartbeat 

message from a device within the system before it declares a “fault condition” and imposes 

appropriate actions for fail-safe protection. Timeout can be triggered by an actual fault or by 

delayed heartbeat messages due to overload. 

• Latency – the length of time passing between when a communications message is initiated at 

the point of origin and when appropriate actions corresponding to that message are initiated 

at the destination system. This time includes the response time of any PTC subsystems 

involved in the message path and communications queuing delays. 

The interval between heartbeat messages governs the time during which a PTC communications 

fault will be undetected. Naturally, quicker detection of a communications problem reduces the 

risk of a potential hazardous condition under PTC operation. However, more frequent heartbeat 

messages place a heavier load on the communication network and could increase the frequency 

of timeout events because of communications overload. The requirement and the extent of the 

communication network upgrade will be driven largely by the heartbeat frequency needed to 

ensure safe operations. The communications system must be able to carry the total 

communications traffic without excessive delay, which would lead to timeout events and 

unnecessary forced train stops because of apparent communications faults.

Given the importance of communications system performance to the safety and operability of 

PTC systems, the railroad industry is establishing a standard for high-performance data radio 

networks for current and future PTC system developments. With such an improved 

communications network, the necessary throughput and safety of the system can be achieved 

without overloading through more frequent exchanges of heartbeat messages among various 

elements of the system. An analysis method is required to determine the optimum timeout 

period for a vital PTC system. The approach to this analysis follows procedures established in 

FRA’s Standards for Processor-Based Signal and Train Control Systems (49 CFR Part 236, 

Subpart H, effective March 7, 2005). 

These standards require the operator of a rail line segment equipped with a novel system to 

submit a risk assessment that demonstrates that rail operations under the novel system are at least 

as safe as they were under the train control system previously used on the line segment. If 

installation of the novel system is accompanied by substantial changes in traffic mix, traffic 

density, and/or speed, then the risk comparison must be with an alternative base case 

representing the line equipped with a conventional train control system that would normally be 

used under the proposed operating conditions. The specific requirements for the risk analysis 

and safety performance are contained in paragraphs 236.907(7), 236.909, and Appendix B of the 

rule. Several discussions have taken place since publication of the FRA rule cited above, leading 

to preliminary agreement between the industry and FRA concerning the magnitude of speed and 

traffic changes that would trigger a requirement to define an alternative base case.
9 

Following these standards, a risk analysis approach is used to establish the optimum timeout 

period for the IDOT PTC system. The risks associated with operations under the IDOT PTC 

system must not exceed those of operating with a base case system as defined in the FRA 

Standards. In this case, the base case(s) selected for this analysis must be consistent with 

proposed 110-miles per hour (mph) passenger train operations with the IDOT PTC system. 

1.2.1 Analysis Objectives and General Approach

FRA has sponsored an independent risk assessment about the influence of the communications 

timeout threshold of the proposed IDOT PTC system on the overall safety performance of the 

system, as compared with base case, train control systems as defined in the FRA Standards. The 

base cases considered in this study were a cab signal system with continuous automatic train stop 

(ATS) system and a four-aspect cab signal system with speed control, termed an automatic train 

control (ATC) system, configured as currently used in Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor (NEC) for 

high-speed passenger trains. It should be noted that the ATS system was the base case originally 

used in the IDOT PTC risk assessment for setting the level of risk that the proposed PTC system 

should not exceed. 

The key objective documented in this report is determining the maximum communication 

timeout in the IDOT PTC system, as developed by Lockheed Martin for the NAJPTC program, 

so that this system will not impose a greater risk of train collisions, derailments, and accidents 

than cab signal systems with ATS and ATC. This analysis compared the IDOT PTC system 

operated with a mix of equipped and unequipped trains with the cab signal/ATS system as well 

as the NEC cab signal/ATC system operated with all trains equipped.

After the initiation of this study, the development of the IDOT PTC was terminated, and a new 

PTC development program was initiated at TTCI in Pueblo, CO, to build on the previous 

successes of the NAJPTC program. However, for the purpose of this analysis—which was 

intended to determine the optimum latency and timeout periods—using the IDOT PTC territory 

as a test case is still valid. The analysis conducted in this study will be valid for any similar 

territory.

A comparative quantitative risk analysis (QRA) was selected as the approach. The term 

“comparative” applies because the performance of the IDOT PTC system is assessed by 

comparison with appropriate base cases; the term “quantitative” is appropriate because numerical 

measures of risk are calculated in the analysis—in this case estimated accident numbers, 

casualties, and costs during 10 years of corridor operation. A comparative QRA is preferred to 

the alternative of an absolute QRA, where analysis results are compared with a numerical 

standard, because all risk analysis results are approximations and highly dependent on input data, 

and fewer sources of error are in a comparative analysis where many inputs do not vary between 

analysis cases.

A QRA involves first identifying relevant accident scenarios or those scenarios for which 

accident frequency and severity may be affected by the control system capabilities. Then risk is 

calculated for each accident scenario, operating state (normal and under different failure modes 

including during timeout for the IDOT PTC system), train type, operating conditions (train 
10 

speeds, traffic density, and traffic mix), and infrastructure conditions (number of tracks) and 

totaled to give overall risk. As well as total risk, risk analysis results are presented by train type, 

accident scenario, and location along the IDOT test corridor so that the analyst can understand 

how control system capabilities affect the results. 

The risk calculation is carried out by using a multiworksheet spreadsheet model. A primary 

calculation spreadsheet performs the risk calculation for each accident scenario and 

frequency/consequence combination. Lookup tables are used to provide inputs needed to 

perform the calculations, such as:

• Accident frequencies for each scenario, usually expressed as events per million train-miles;

• Per-accident consequences (injuries, fatalities, and property damage) by speed, accident 

scenario, and train type; 

• Route segment lengths, speeds, and passenger and freight traffic levels; and

• Grade crossing details and risk categories.

ENSCO assembled the team that performed this analysis. ICF Consulting (ICF) performed the 

majority of the analysis. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) provided key support in establishing the 

parameters associated with the different control systems as well as route characteristics and 

conducted essential analysis of various accident scenarios affecting the cases considered in this 

study.

1.3 Report Overview

Chapter 2 provides an overview of how the general approach to risk analysis was applied in this 

study; details on how calculations were actually implemented throughout the analysis are 

provided in the appendices. Chapter 3 provides the results of the analysis and conclusions are 

summarized in Chapter 4. 
11 

2. Description of Analysis

2.1 General Approach

A central problem in the risk comparisons in this analysis is the inevitable difference between the 

methods that are available to estimate risk for the base and PTC cases. The most obvious 

approach to estimating base case risk is to use historical accident data for comparable railroad 

operations, with adjustments to reflect the specific operating parameters of the line segment 

being analyzed (traffic density, speed, passenger/freight mix, etc.). Since there is a substantial 

volume of historical data, it is reasonable to have high confidence in the base case risk estimate, 

say ±20%. However, there is usually very limited information about the performance of 

individual train control system components that yielded this performance. Also, there is the 

implicit assumption that operating and maintenance practices, operating employee training and 

experience, and similar factors are typical of industry practice. Where historical accident data 

are used to estimate risks for a specific operation, taking into account highly localized variations 

in plant, equipment, personnel, and operations is nearly impossible. 

With very limited operating experience with the NAJPTC system available, the risk estimates for 

the PTC case must be built from the bottom–up by using estimates of the failure modes,

reliability, and availability of individual system components and subsystems. Many of these 

values will not be known with any accuracy, and therefore, confidence in the end result could be 

much lower than that associated with the base cases. This in turn means there will be diminished 

confidence in the comparison between base and PTC cases. 

The way to minimize this comparability problem is to use a methodology in which the base cases 

and PTC case risk analyses start from a common reference point and follow parallel paths as 

much as possible. This reference point is termed the reference case. The reference case is one 

for which extensive historical accident data are available (accident frequency and consequence 

values for all relevant scenarios). Then accident frequencies and consequences for operations 

with the base and IDOT PTC cases are estimated as variations from the reference case. An 

approach of this nature has been adopted for this analysis and is described in the following 

paragraphs. 

• Step 1: Define and analyze a reference risk analysis case

The reference case for the IDOT corridor serves as the starting point for both the two base 

cases and the IDOT PTC case. The reference case for this analysis is an operation with the 

same passenger and freight traffic operated with conventional CTC with maximum passenger 

train speeds of 79 mph. There is a large amount of historical experience with this type of 

operation from which to derive estimates of accident frequency and consequences for the 

relevant accident scenarios. Safety performance for the reference case is quantified by the 

estimated number and consequences of main-line accidents per year on the corridor, broken 

down by cause, and focusing on PTC-relevant accident scenarios. All accidents that a PTC, 

ATS, or ATC system might prevent were be designated as PTC relevant for this study, but 

only a subset of these would be potentially preventable by a specific individual PTC, ATS, or 

ATC system, depending on detailed system capabilities. 
12 

• Step 2: Define and analyze the safety performance of the base cases

The base cases considered in the study described in this document are briefly described as 

follows: 

ATS base case – a system using conventional-technology ATS combined with cab 

signals, enabling 110-miles per hour operations under current FRA regulations and 

guidelines. The ATS system will initiate braking if the engineer fails to acknowledge a 

more restrictive indication at a block or interlocking signal within 8 seconds (s). 

Directional coded track circuits are used for track-to-train communications.

ATC base case – an ATC system combined with cab signals. The ATC system is similar 

to ATS with the additional capability to enforce approach and restricted speeds in 

response to signal indications. ATC does not enforce an absolute stop at block or 

interlocking signals. Historical data are drawn from the ATC systems used on the NEC 

and elsewhere.

Both base cases analyzed in this study were developed by applying the aforementioned 

control systems on the IDOT corridor. 

Two methods were used to estimate the safety performance of the base case system and the 

results compared to reach a final estimate:

a) Develop estimates of how many “reference case” accidents would be prevented by the 

ATS and ATC, taking into account system functionality, failure rates, time to repair, mix 

of equipped and unequipped trains, and similar factors.

b) Derive an estimate from actual historical experience with the ATS and ATC in existing 

applications. Historical performance was adjusted for the base case operating 

conditions—speeds, number of running tracks, traffic mix, and traffic density.

• Step 3: Analyze the IDOT PTC case

The safety performance with PTC is analyzed under the same operating conditions as the 

base cases, also by estimating the number of “reference case” accidents that would be 

prevented by PTC, based primarily on system functionality, failure rates, time to repair, mix 

of equipped and unequipped trains, and similar factors. The lack of operating experience 

with PTC means that it was not possible to compare this result with actual historic data.

For both the base and the IDOT PTC analysis cases, the risk analysis considers the adverse 

effects on safety of operating in a degraded state after a failure, because of possible unfamiliarity 

with backup operating procedures, the “complacency effect” and similar factors. The 

complacency effect comes into play when an operator unconsciously relies on the backup 

provided by ATS, ATC, or PTC, even when it is known to be out of service. The more severe 

consequences associated with passenger trains operating at higher speeds (exceeding 79 mph) 

have been taken into account in each of the base cases and the PTC case. 
13 

The IDOT Test Corridor and Operation with PTC

The route over which all control systems are analyzed is UP’s Joliet and Springfield 

Subdivisions between Ridgely, IL, and Mazonia, IL; the total length of the route is 120 mi. This 

corridor is equipped with conventional wayside automatic block and interlocking signals and 

CTC. PTC and the base case train control systems would be installed as an overlay on this 

existing signal system as originally envisioned in the NAJPT effort. 

It would not be practical to equip all freight trains operating on the IDOT test corridor with PTC. 

The proposed application of PTC by train type was as follows: 

• All Amtrak passenger trains are to be PTC equipped 100 percent of the time. 

• Seventy-five percent of UP local freight trains are to be PTC equipped. 

• No UP through general freight or grain trains will be PTC equipped. 

The IDOT PTC system monitors trains that are equipped with the necessary PTC hardware as 

well as those trains that do not have the necessary equipment, referred to as unequipped trains. 

Unequipped train locations are monitored through the block occupancy information from 

conventional track circuits transmitted to the PTC via PTC WIUs and the UP Computer-Aided 

Dispatching (CAD) System. 

The passenger trains operate over the full length of the IDOT test corridor. However, most 

freight trains operate over only a portion of the corridor, leading to variations in traffic level 

along the corridor. To capture the effect of these variations, the corridor was divided into three 

Sub-corridors. Details on the Sub-corridors and other spatial and temporal divisions used in the 

analysis are provided in Section 2.3.1. 

ATS and Cab Signal Base Case

The ATS base case considered in the analysis documented in this report is the UP four-aspect 

cab signal system, configured as currently used elsewhere on UP, with all trains equipped. This 

system has a continuous train stop system. Whenever there is a downward change of cab signal 

aspect, the engineer is expected to acknowledge such a downward change by moving a lever 

within 8 s or a full service penalty brake application will be imposed. This alerts the engineer to 

the approaching signal aspect, which is also displayed by the cab signals, and can prevent 

collision accidents.

The capabilities of ATS with cab signals differ significantly from those of the IDOT PTC 

system. The differences that can affect accident risk as compared with the IDOT PTC case, and 

which are considered in the analysis, are:

• Speed, whether it is civil speed, maximum track speed, or signal speed, is not enforced. 

• All trains are equipped to leave the terminal in accordance with operating rules and FRA 

regulations. Speed restrictions are imposed if the cab signal equipment fails en route and the 

equipment is cutout. 
14 

• The conveyance of signal aspects to the locomotive is through coded track circuit signals. 

Failure of the system will flip the cab signal to a restricting aspect within a very short time. 

• Unlike the IDOT PTC, the cab signal equipment on board a train can detect a broken rail and 

shunting of the track circuit ahead of the train in the same signal block, causing the cab 

display to be flipped to restricting signal. 

• This analysis assumes a maximum of 3-second latency (95 percent of the time) with the 

coded track circuits used with ATC and ATS. With coded track circuits, latency is the time 

interval between an event that changes or interrupts the track circuit (such as a changed 

signal aspect or an intrusion into an occupied block) and the corresponding change on the incab signal display. Latency values are lower than those with PTC because there are no radio 

communications delays. 

• Work zones are generally not protected by the cab signal systems. 

NEC ATC Base Case

The ATC base case identified for consideration with the IDOT PTC system is the four-aspect cab 

signal system with ATC, configured as currently used on the NEC by Amtrak for the high-speed 

passenger trains. All trains operated on the IDOT test corridor would be equipped under this 

case. Whenever there is a downward change of cab signal, the engineers, as in the ATS base 

case, are required to acknowledge the change by moving a lever within 8 s or the system will 

initiate penalty braking. With ATC, additional protections are provided. The engineers need to 

initiate brake reduction to suppress the penalty application. Eventually, the braking increases to 

the full service rate, thus permanently suppressing the penalty. The engineer can release the 

brake only when speed is reduced to what is appropriate to the signal aspect, or the signal aspect 

changes to allow a higher speed. This ensures overspeed protection for each cab signal aspect 

down to restricted speed. The ATC system does not enforce an absolute stop at block or 

interlocking signals. Except for this speed enforcement, there are no differences in capabilities 

between ATS and ATC.

2.2 Risk Analysis and Model Description

As indicated in Chapter 1, risk is calculated for each accident scenario, operating state (normal 

and under different failure modes), train type, operating conditions (train speeds, traffic density, 

and traffic mix), and infrastructure conditions (number of tracks) and totaled to give overall risk 

and breakdowns of risk by any selected parameter (e.g., location, train type, and accident 

scenario).

In risk analysis, risk is normally defined as the product of accident frequency and consequences:

[TOTAL RISK] = Σ{[ACCIDENT FREQUENCY] × [ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE]}

where:

RISK is the aggregate harm caused by all accidents. Either injuries plus fatalities as 

reported to FRA or a total harm financial measure can be used. Total harm is the sum of 
15 

damage and a dollar value is assigned to casualties by using standard DOT values for 

injuries and fatalities as widely used in transportation safety analyses.

[ACCIDENT FREQUENCY] is an accident rate expressed as the number of accidents 

per unit of exposure. The most common measure is accidents per million train-miles. 

This measure was used for passenger train accidents, and a combination of train- and 

car-miles was used for freight train accidents depending on accident cause; human 

factors accidents are usually a function of train-miles, and accidents due to mechanical 

failures of car or track components are a function of car-miles rather than train-miles. 

For grade crossing collisions, the exposure measure is the number of times a train passes 

over a crossing. 

[ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE] is the harm caused a single accident (injuries, fatalities 

and property damage) and varies by train type, train size, speed, accident scenario, and 

similar factors. 

 [TOTAL RISK] is the sum of all risks associated with a particular system. 

Individual risks are calculated from frequency and consequences for each combination of 

accident scenario, distinct operating environment, and operating state:

• Each accident scenario and Sub-scenario; 

• Train control system operating state (i.e. normal, timeout, and fallback states); and

• Operating conditions by route segment and time period (train speed, traffic density, traffic

and mix for both summer and the “rest of the year”). 

As discussed in the previous chapter, the risk analysis detailed in this report is a comparative 

quantitative risk analysis (comparative QRA); the risks associated with each of the control 

systems are compared with one another. The output of the QRA is an estimate of the occurrence 

of undesired events during a defined period (e.g., 1 year’s operation of a rail corridor). This 

analysis will focus on estimating the number of accidents and per-accident consequences (e.g., 

fatalities, injuries, damage, and other costs). All risk analysis results are estimates, and results 

are highly dependent on availability of good accident frequency and consequence estimates. 

Risk comparisons are more reliable than absolute risk estimates, because many inputs do not 

vary between analysis cases.

The risk calculation for each control system is carried out by using a Microsoft Excel 

spreadsheet model made up of several individual worksheets, as described below: 

• Worksheet 1: “Segment Definition and Timeout Effects.” This worksheet estimates the 

probability that collisions between equipped and unequipped trains can be prevented or 

mitigated. Definitions of route segments and traffic data are introduced, and collisionpreventability calculations are carried out based on stopping distances and, in the case of the 

PTC system, timeout. Because timeout affects the results of calculations in this worksheet, 

this is a very important part of the calculation procedure for the IDOT PTC analysis case. It 
16 

is less critical for the base cases, where there is no timeout effect, and there are no 

unequipped trains. 

The purpose of Worksheet 1 is to estimate the probability that a signal violation by an 

unequipped train will result in a collision with an equipped train. This probability is a 

function of the location of the equipped train relative to the signal at which the violation 

occurred and whether the equipped train would be alerted of the violation in time to stop 

before colliding with the unequipped violating train. To carry out this calculation, risk zones 

were defined for the position of the equipped, or “innocent,” train at the time of the signal 

violation, as illustrated in Figure 2.1. 

Figure 2.1. Risk Zones for Equipped Train Approaching a Point of Conflict

The ability of the equipped train to stop before Point Z depends on its risk zone location at 

the time of violation and, for PTC, timeout status. The zones for the location of the equipped 

train at the time of the violation are as follows: 

• Risk Zone A1, between Points Y and Z: equipped train is unable to stop or reduce 

speed significantly before reaching the point of conflict. 

• Risk Zone A2, between Points X and Y: equipped train can reduce speed sufficiently 

to reduce the consequences of a collision but is unable to stop before reaching the 

point of conflict. 

• Risk Zone B, between Points W and X: equipped train has passed the intermediate 

signal at point W but receives a warning, or the IDOT PTC timeout expires and can

stop before the point of conflict. 

• Risk Zone C, before the intermediate signal at Point W: if the equipped train is in 

this zone at the time of the signal violation by the unequipped train, the engineer can

see the intermediate signal change to “approach” or “stop” aspect.

The detailed approach to estimating the length of the risk zones and the relationship to 

collision risk is described in further detail in Appendix A. 

• Worksheet 2: “Collision Probability and Preventability.” This worksheet calculates an 

estimate of the frequency of train-to-train collisions for each train type pair that could be 

involved in a collision (freight and passenger, equipped and unequipped) and type of 
17 

collision (head-on, side rear-end) as a function of the mix of train types, characteristics of 

track segments, and collision preventability data from the Worksheet 1 calculations. 

• Worksheet 3: “Risk Calculation.” This worksheet carries out the basic risk calculations to 

estimate risks (injuries, fatalities, property damage) for all other PTC-relevant accident 

scenarios, including overspeed, grade crossings, work zones, and broken rails. Each 

worksheet of this type calculates risk for one route Sub-corridor, season, and train control 

system operating state (normal, in timeout). The capability of a control system to reduce 

accident severity is estimated by performing risk calculations within this worksheet by using 

slightly modified values of accident consequences.

A separate worksheet titled “Inputs” contains lookup tables providing the required model inputs, 

such as:

• Per-accident consequences by speed, collision scenario, and train type; 

• Route segment lengths, speeds, traffic volume and mix, and grade crossing characteristics;

• Reference case accident frequency for each PTC-relevant scenario; and

• Accident preventability estimates for the analysis case for each accident scenario.

Multiple risk calculation modules, each consisting of one set of Worksheets 1, 2, and 3, are used 

to make up the full analysis of one train control system. Individual calculation modules are 

devoted to: 

• Each of the three Sub-corridors;

• Each season (along this route there is a seasonal variation in the number of grain trains

operated); and

• Each operating state (e.g., operating normally and in timeout, where applicable). 

Model inputs can be categorized by whether they change from control system to control system 

or whether they are fixed for all systems or analysis cases. In general, model inputs can be 

associated with one of three categories:

• Fixed inputs used in all analysis cases/control systems. These inputs have a limited effect on 

comparison results and include: 

- Infrastructure details and segment definitions, including speed limits for passenger and 

freight trains, except for the CTC reference case where passenger train speeds are limited 

to 79 mph; 

- Train braking formulas;

- Reference case accident frequencies; and

- Accident consequences by scenarios and speed.

• Fixed inputs used in all analysis cases/control systems that may have moderate effect on 

comparison results. These include: 

- Traffic volume and patterns (by altering the relative exposure of different trains and/or 

differently equipped train types to collisions).
18 

• Inputs that vary between analysis cases and that can have significant impact on comparison 

results. These include: 

- Control system capabilities (which accidents can be prevented or mitigated and how 

effectively this can be done);

- Accident preventability characteristics; and

- Characteristics specific to the IDOT PTC system and analysis case such as timeout and 

latency.

A final Excel worksheet entitled “Results Summary” provides risk subtotals and totals for a 

given analysis case/control system. Track and route parameters, passenger and freight train 

speeds, and train schedules are held constant across all risk assessments. In addition, a separate 

Excel workbook was prepared to assemble the results summaries from all analysis cases in one 

place, rather than scattered among a number of individual workbook models. This “Results”

workbook was the primary reference for the results section (Chapter 3) of this report.Detailed 

descriptions of the calculations carried out in each portion of the risk model are provided in the 

appendices; Appendix A contains material related to Worksheet 1 (“Segment Definition and 

Timeout Effects”), including a detailed treatment of the use of the risk zones, Appendix B 

provides information pertaining to Worksheet 2 (“Collision Probability and Preventability”), and 

Appendix C includes details on Worksheet 3 (“Risk Calculation”). 

2.3 Representing the Corridor and Control System in the Models

Many factors have to be considered in constructing a risk model. In this case, the model had to 

be structured to take into account special and/or temporal variations in infrastructure, traffic mix, 

and traffic volume as well as in the operating states of the control systems. This section provides 

a discussion of how these variations were represented in the risk model in the analysis of the 

IDOT PTC case, the ATS base case, and the ATC base case. 

2.3.1 Temporal and Spatial Variations on the IDOT Corridor 

Accident risk on a rail corridor is primarily a function of operating conditions, specifically:

• Traffic density (trains/day);

• Traffic mix, relative numbers of passenger and freight trains, and whether they are equipped 

with train control devices; 

• Speeds of passenger and freight trains; 

• Signal system types, layout (block lengths), and capabilities;

• Number of main tracks (which especially affects traffic density per track and the frequency 

of potentially conflicting movements); and

• Special features that can represent a hazard, such as diamond crossings and/or moveable 

bridges. 
19 

Operating conditions on a railroad can vary both spatially and temporally. For example, traffic 

density and mix can vary by time of day, day of week, and seasonally. Train speeds typically 

vary along a rail route, depending on local infrastructure details such as curvature, junctions, and 

grades. Other spatial variations include number of tracks, signal block lengths (which can affect 

the ability of a train to respond to a changed signal indication), and traffic mix, and traffic 

density. 

In this risk model, the approach to covering the key temporal and spatial variations in the model 

was to divide the overall operation on the IDOT corridor into temporal and spatial units within 

which operations are constant, perform the risk calculation for each unit separately, and then 

total them to obtain overall risk. The specific significant spatial and temporal variations 

represented in the models are as follows:

Sub-corridors 

Sub-corridors are defined to capture the most significant spatial traffic variations. Three Subcorridors have been defined:

• Joliet Sub-corridor – Mazonia, IL (MP 62.60), to the siding at Bunge (MP 88.35); Mazonia is 

considered an end point of the corridor, and the Bunge siding is where grain trains come for 

loading and is, therefore, the origination and termination point of some grain train trips.

• Bloomington Sub-corridor – Siding at Bunge (MP 88.35) to the Yard at Bloomington, IL 

(MP 124.86); Bloomington represents a point of origination for local freight trains and a 

point at which trains from other railroads enter the IDOT test corridor. 

• Springfield Sub-corridor – from the Yard at Bloomington, IL (MP 124.86), to Interlocking at 

Ridgley, IL (MP 180.99); Ridgley is considered an end point of the corridor. 

Detailed infrastructure and operations data the IDOT corridor used to develop these Subcorridors were provided by BAH and are included in Appendix D. 

Seasonal and Other Temporal Variations 

The grain trains do not operate during the summer months of July, August, and September. 

Thus, a significant change occurs in traffic density and mix between these summer months and 

the rest of the year.

Two seasonal periods are represented in the model: 

• A 3-month summer period, without grain trains; and

• A 9-month fall/winter/spring period with grain trains.

Although day-of-week traffic variations occur, with selected local and through freight train trips 

operating between 1 and 5 days per week, attempting to perform model runs for each day of the 

week would have made the model excessively complex. Average traffic level and mix are

assumed for all 7 days of the week for estimating collision frequencies and are combined with 
20 

reviews of day-by-day operating string charts for analyzing the occurrence of meets and passes 

by train type.

Spatial Variations within Sub-corridors 

The most critical issue in this risk analysis is the ability of the IDOT PTC and the base case train 

control systems to prevent collision accidents and the influence of IDOT PTC communications 

timeout on those risks. In the IDOT PTC case, the traffic mix includes both equipped and 

unequipped trains, and the collision scenario most influenced by timeout is when an unequipped 

train fails to observe a stop signal and is in danger of colliding with an equipped train. In this 

situation, signal block length is a critical parameter in calculating risk, along with timeout and 

latency. Therefore, each Sub-corridor was divided into segments corresponding to signal blocks 

for the risk calculation. The signal blocks are typically between 2 and 3 mi. Grade crossings and 

diamonds are analyzed separately as point hazards. 

2.3.2 Operating States

Risk will vary with the operating state of the particular train control system. The operating states 

that could exist in the system and that could estimate the fraction of train-miles operated in each 

state need to be defined. In particular, train-miles operated while a portion of the PTC system 

communications network affecting a specific train is in timeout is a key parameter in this 

analysis. There are three operating states for the IDOT PTC system:

• Normal operation: The IDOT PTC system is working as designed and tested, with all 

functions available. The only communications delays are those due to normal system 

latency, which can be between a minimum of 3 s and the full timeout at a maximum. An 

average latency of 10 s was used for the analysis of timeout variations, based on field 

observation of the IDOT PTC system during trials. Separately, the model runs explored 

the effect on risk of varying latency. More exactly, if information were available on the 

distribution of latency (mean and standard deviation), it would be possible to understand 

the relationship between latency distribution, timeout, and the chance that latency would 

exceed timeout and trigger a timeout event. The system designers’ objective is to select a 

timeout value that does not trigger an excessive number of timeout events due to 

communications congestion and queuing, rather than actual communications failures. 

Latency affects all communications messages between trains, the control system, and 

wayside systems and devices. In the case of any violation of authority by an unequipped 

train, an approaching equipped train will receive a message revising its movement 

authority after latency has expired. Thus, latency has a direct effect on the chance that 

the violation will result in a collision.

• Operation in timeout: Communication links that form the IDOT PTC system are 

checked regularly by a “heartbeat” message that must be sent and correctly returned over 

each link. If a specified interval elapses without any heartbeat message, a 

communications fault will be declared and the system will resort to a “fallback” mode 

(this term is defined below). This interval usually is the time period in which at least two 

heartbeat messages would have been sent. During this interval (termed the “timeout 

period”), if a normal communications message is received, the timeout period will be 
21 

automatically reset as if a heartbeat message had been received. However, the heartbeat 

checks use the limited communications capacity of the IDOT PTC system, and the 

timeout period has to be on the order of 100 s or greater to avoid timeout events as a 

result of communication delays. A failure of one of the links in the system during the 

timeout period can mean that a key safety message could be interrupted and fail to reach 

an affected train or trains. The PTC system would appear to be working correctly to the 

on-board system until the timeout period expires without receiving a normal 

communications or heartbeat message, at which point the system will assume a problem 

exists, announce a failure, and initiate braking. Thus, accident risk increases during 

timeout. 

• Operation in fallback mode: After a system failure of any kind, affected trains will stop 

and will then continue operating in a “fallback” operating state. Since the IDOT test 

corridor is equipped with CTC and wayside block and interlocking signals, the fallback 

state is assumed to be CTC, under which passenger trains may operate at up to 79 mph. 

The challenge is then to estimate what fractions of train-miles are operated under each of the 

three operating states. Then risk analyses can be performed for the period each operating state is 

in effect and summed to get an estimate of overall risk. In the case of the IDOT comparative 

analysis, risks are estimated for a period of 10 years of operation, primarily so that risk can be 

expressed in terms of estimated injuries, fatalities, and property damage without many results 

being very small and hard-to-interpret numbers. 

As far as can be determined, no information is readily available about the frequency of 

occurrence of timeout events or duration of the following outage for the IDOT PTC system or for 

the two base case train control systems. Anecdotal information suggests that trains will be 

operating in a fallback state (CTC in all cases) for between 3 and 8 percent of train-miles 

operated. The duration of an individual outage might vary widely. A fault in the on-board 

system of an individual locomotive would not be repaired until the train completed its trip and 

the locomotive could receive attention from maintenance staff. A fault in wayside or central 

office equipment might take anywhere between 30 minutes (min) to several hours to repair, 

depending on the complexity of the problem, how far maintainers have to travel, and availability 

of the required part. A timeout event due to communications congestion or an unknown 

intermittent fault could be checked out, and the system returned to service in a few minutes.

The fraction of train-miles operating in timeout can be estimated from the duration and 

frequency of timeout events, starting from an estimate that 5 percent of train-miles are operated 

in the fallback mode, and assuming a timeout precedes each period of operation in fallback 

mode. The calculation is performed separately for passenger and freight trains and for on-board 

and wayside failures. 

Passenger Trains, On-Board Failure 

Passenger trains will traverse the whole IDOT corridor (118 mi) in a period of approximately 2 

hours at an average speed of 60 mph (88 feet (ft)/s), including stops. In a typical failure, the train 

will travel approximately half this distance (59 mi) in fallback mode. The distance traveled in 

timeout will be a function of average speed and timeout. If the duration of timeout in seconds is 
22 

represented by TO, then the ratio between train-miles in timeout and train-miles in fallback mode 

is as follows.

 Ratio = [TO × speed (ft/s)] / [59 × 5280] 

= TO / 3540, if average speed is 60 mph (88 ft/s), including stops ......... (1)

Freight Trains, On-Board Failure

Most freight trains travel over approximately half of the corridor (59 mi north or south of 

Bloomington) over a period of 1.5–2 hours, depending on the number and duration of stops. 

Average speeds are approximately 35 mph (51 ft/s) including stops. Using the same logic as for 

passenger trains, the ratio between distance traveled in timeout and distance in fallback mode is:

 Ratio = [TO × speed (ft/s)] / [0.5 × 59 × 5280] 

= TO / 3100, if average speed is 35 mph (51 ft/s), including stops ...... ...(2)

Wayside Failure 

The ratio between train-miles during timeout and train-miles in fallback mode is simply given by 

the following formula:

 

Ratio = [TO] / [(duration of downtime in hours) × 3600] .................................... (3)

A detailed analysis was carried out to confirm that this relationship was independent of train 

speed, traffic levels, and the length of track affected by the communications failure, as follows:

If: L = length of track affected by the failure (miles)

 N = number of trains/day 

 A = average speed of trains (mph) 

 D = duration of downtime (time to repair) (hours) 

 DO = duration of operations in a day (hours) 

then the chance that a train is in the failed zone is given by: 

 Chance = [N × L] / [A × DO] ................................................................ (4)

Distance traveled during timeout is given by:

 Distance (ft) = TO × Chance × A × 88/60 

 = [TO × N × L × 88] / [DO × 60] ....................................... (5)

where the ratio 88/60 is used to convert speed in mph to ft/s.

Distance traveled in fallback mode (in the failed zone during the duration of the failure) is given 

by the formula:

Distance (ft) = [D × N × L × 5280] / DO ................................................ (6)
23 

The ratio is given by dividing Formula 2 by Formula 3 in which the parameters N, L, and OP 

cancel out, giving: 

Ratio = [TO × 88] / [D × 60 × 5280] = TO / [D × 3600] ..................... (7)

Taken together, Formulas 1, 2, and 3 all indicate that the ratio between train-miles during

timeout and train-miles in the fallback mode is between TO/3000 and TO/5500 where the time to 

repair for a typical wayside failure is 1.5 hours. TO is measured in seconds. The ratio is 

sensitive to train speed and trip length for on-board failures but not for wayside failures. 

Because no information on the relative incidence of wayside and on-board failures exists, and 

train speeds in timeout are the same as when operating normally, a mean ratio of TO/4300 was 

used in all IDOT PTC analysis cases. 

As an example, for TO of 120 s and 5-percent train-miles operated in fallback mode, the 

percentage of train-miles operated in timeout is given by:

 5% × 120/4300 = 0.14% 

The analysis considers only normal operation and timeout operating states. The fallback mode 

(conventional CTC operations) is assumed to be the same for all analysis cases, both in aggregate 

duration and safety performance, and thus does not affect the risk comparison between the IDOT 

PTC system and the base case systems.

2.4 Accident Scenarios Included in the Analysis

Accident scenarios are discussed in more detail in Appendix E. This section summarizes the 

accident scenarios as they pertain to this analysis. 

The objective of the risk analysis is to evaluate the relative safety performance for the IDOT 

PTC system relative to that for each of the base cases. Thus, the analysis includes all accident 

scenarios where the frequency or consequences of an accident could be changed by PTC or cab 

signals with ATS and/or ATC. These are termed PTC-relevant scenarios and are composed of 

the following: 

• Train-to-train collisions of all kinds, including collisions at diamond crossings with trains on 

another rail line. 

• Collisions between an active train and a rail vehicle or vehicle lading that has intruded on the 

track occupied by the active train. 

• Overspeed derailments. 

• Broken rail derailments, where the broken rail can be detected by the train control system. 

• Work zone violations. 

• Grade crossing collisions with a highway vehicle, where a crossing warning system 

malfunction can be detected by the train control system.
24 

These scenarios are described in more detail in the paragraphs below.

Train-to-Train Collisions

Train-to-train collisions are collisions between two trains, both of which are moving over the 

IDOT corridor on main-line tracks under the control of the signal and train control system. 

Collisions are most commonly caused when one train fails to observe signals and operating 

authorities or when the engineers receive conflicting instructions from the dispatcher. Less 

commonly, collisions can be caused by a failure of on-board equipment such as brakes or in the 

signal, train control, or communications systems. 

There are many sub-scenarios of train-to-train collisions to take into account factors that affect 

either the frequency or consequences of collisions. Those included in the analysis are: 

• Factors affecting collision frequency: 

- Traffic density and mix: The number of trains/day and the distribution between passenger 

trains, PTC-equipped freight trains, and unequipped freight trains. Base collision 

frequency and the distribution between meets and passes are governed by the traffic mix 

and operating pattern. For example, passenger trains tend to be concentrated in the 

morning and late afternoon periods with freight trains predominately in the late morning 

and early afternoon. Collision frequency is estimated for each possible combination of 

train types.

- Collision frequency variations as a function of route segment type: Collision risk is not 

evenly distributed along the line. A review of historic accident data suggests that on a 

single-track railroad, collision risk is higher at passing sidings and especially on the 

single-track segments before and after a siding. Appropriate frequency adjustments are 

applied to each segment type

• Factors affecting collision consequences: 

- Train types involved in the collision: Consequences are much more serious with 

passenger trains than freight trains given the numbers of passengers at risk of becoming 

casualties and the high value of passenger cars relative to freight cars and their contents.

- Colliding vehicles in the collision: Whether the collision involves a locomotive hitting 

another locomotive, a locomotive hitting a freight car or a locomotive hitting a passenger 

car. Because of the wide differences in consequences of accidents between passenger 

and freight trains, the model calculates consequences separately for each train involved in 

a collision, taking into account the types of colliding vehicles and trains involved. 

- Train speed: Consequences vary substantially with train speed, broadly as a function of 

the kinetic energy to be dissipated in a collision.

Diamond collisions are a special case of train-to-train collision, where collision frequency is a 

function of traffic density on both lines. Factors affecting consequences are the same as above, 

except that the chance of a locomotive-to-locomotive collision is assumed to be negligible, and 

all collisions are locomotive to passenger or freight car.
25 

Intrusion Collisions

Intrusion collisions occur when rail cars or their lading intrude from an adjacent track onto the 

active track and are hit by active trains. There are two subgroups of intrusion collisions: 

• The first is at a connecting switch where a rail vehicle rolls out to foul the main line. This can 

be due to an improperly secured vehicle, a vehicle released by vandals, misjudged switching 

movements on the connecting track, and similar factors.

• The second occurs away from connecting switches, where a derailed vehicle or a shifted load 

on an adjacent track fouls the main line. 

These subgroups are analyzed separately because they differ in frequency, in consequences, and 

in potential preventability by the PTC or base case train control systems.

Overspeed Derailments

IDOT PTC can enforce permanent and temporary civil speed limits, including maximum speed 

through turnouts, for example, when entering a passing siding instead of taking the main track. 

The base case train control systems lack this capability.

Broken Rail Derailments

Broken rail can be detected by the train control system. Conventional track circuits can detect a 

completely broken rail—provided that the signal block is unoccupied by a train. To warn an 

approaching train, the circuit changes the signal controlling entry to the block to red and alerts 

the approaching train through the PTC system, where available. Coded track circuits, as used for 

the UP and NEC cab signal systems, can warn an approaching train of a broken rail, even if the 

train has already entered the signal block in which the break occurred. 

Work Zone Violations 

IDOT PTC can prevent work zone violations when trains pass through a zone at an excessive 

speed or if they enter a work zone without authority from the supervisor responsible for activities 

in the work zone. IDOT PTC may also monitor the movements of on-track work equipment that 

does not normally shunt track circuits. The base case train control system lacks these 

capabilities.

Grade Crossing Collisions

Grade crossing collisions are defined to be collisions with a highway vehicle at a grade crossing 

that are reportable to FRA as a train accident. A portion of grade crossing collisions between a 

train and a highway vehicle are caused by a failure of the crossing warning system (e.g., gates, 

lights, or bells). IDOT PTC can warn the train if the crossing warning system fails to operate 

correctly and allows that train to initiate failed crossing procedures. Even if the first train to 

detect the malfunctioning crossing system cannot stop before the crossing, PTC will alert the 

dispatcher to notify subsequent trains and send a maintainer to inspect the crossing. The base 

case train control systems lack this capability. 
26 

2.5 Key Model Inputs 

The risk model requires a large number of numerical inputs to perform the risk calculations as 

described in Section 2.2. In many ways, determining appropriate values for model inputs is the 

most critical and time-consuming activity in a risk analysis of this type. Estimating the input 

values require extensive statistical and engineering analyses, operating simulations, or reviews of 

past analyses conducted for similar projects. Examples may include statistical analysis of 

historical accident data, detailed engineering analyses (e.g., of crushing and train dynamics in 

collisions), or simulations of train operations over a route to determine the occurrence of meets 

and passes. In many cases, analyses carried out for past similar projects can be adapted for the 

current project, reducing the total effort involved. 

To facilitate risk calculations for varying input parameters, all model inputs have been 

concentrated into a series of lookup tables on a single worksheet in the model, which is 

referenced by the worksheets that carry out the risk calculations for each operating state, Subcorridor, and season. In most instances, additional model runs can be accomplished with modest 

effort by only changing the parameter of interest on the input worksheet. A full description of 

the data and their sources is given in Appendix F. 

The following sections provide a summary of the principal groups of inputs and the data sources 

and analyses performed for this effort.

2.5.1 Route, Traffic, and Train Data

These data groups essentially define the operations and operating environment on the IDOT test 

corridor. The data and data sources used are as described in following paragraphs. 

Route Data

The model calculates risk along the IDOT test corridor segment by segment, where segments are 

signal blocks as described in Section 2.3.1. The input table used in the risk calculation 

spreadsheets provides milepost locations for the beginning and end of signal blocks and a 

representative speed for freight trains as well as conventional and high-speed passenger trains for 

the signal block. Also listed in the table is the type of segment (because risk varies by segment 

type) and representative speed, which is the typical average speed at which trains may be 

expected to operate through the segment. Separate tables are provided for each Sub-corridor

along with counts of diamond crossings and grade crossings by type of crossing warning system. 

Route data was taken from track charts and other information provided by the IDOT PTC project 

as presented in Appendix D. 

Traffic Data

Traffic data provided by FRA are summarized in Table 2.1.
27 

Table 2.1. Traffic Data by Sub-corridor and Season 

Train Type 

Average One-Way Trips/Day

Joliet

Sub-corridor

Bloomington

Sub-corridor

Springfield

Sub-corridor

Summer Rest of 

Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year

Passenger 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 

Equipped 

freight 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07 0.86 0.86 

Unequipped 

freight 0.36 0.36 0.36 1.21 0.87 2.30 

Operating 

days 91 274 91 274 91 274 

Train Data 

The primary train characteristic used in the model is braking distance as a function of speed. 

Braking distance formulas, including safety factors, were obtained from Amtrak and the IDOT 

PTC project. It is understood that these are the same formulas as have been used in previous risk 

analyses for the IDOT corridor.

2.5.2 Train-to-Train Collision Frequencies and Distribution

This category includes all collisions between active trains, including head-on, rear-end, and side 

collisions involving two or more active trains, as reported to FRA, but not with cuts of cars 

during switching operations or cars that have rolled out from a siding. Collisions at diamond 

crossings are also analyzed separately.

The basic approach used in the model, as described in Section 2.1, is to estimate accident 

frequencies for a reference analysis case (conventional CTC with wayside signals and 79 mph 

maximum speed) and then estimate what fraction of those accidents would be prevented by each 

train control system being analyzed. Thus all accident frequencies are for CTC operations 

without train control of any type. The frequency for train-to-train collisions for this corridor for 

CTC operation was estimated to be 0.030 collisions per million train-miles. This number was 

obtained from analyses of FRA accident data performed by ICF for previous risk analyses, with 

adjustments for traffic density, single track, absence of major passenger terminals, and similar 

factors. Historical data suggest that these collisions are not uniformly distributed along the 

corridor but tend to be concentrated in high-risk areas, especially on single-track segments before 

and after a passing siding. Because of this effect, collision frequencies were adjusted to reflect 

risk for each segment type. A full description of the derivation of this frequency and all other 

details pertaining to accident frequencies is provided in Appendix F. 
28 

Then the distribution of collision accidents among different train pairs involved in collisions, and 

among head-on, rear-end and side collisions, was estimated. A distribution of collisions among 

all possible combinations of train types (passenger, equipped freight and unequipped freight 

trains) was estimated from the relative numbers of daily trips, modified by a review of string 

chart simulations of operations on the IDOT test corridor. Finally a distribution of collisions 

between head on and rear-end or side collisions was developed from the detailed accident 

scenarios, the mix of meets and passes shown in the operations simulations and historic data. 

2.5.3 Collision Accident Consequences

Because of substantial differences in consequences (injuries, fatalities, and property damage) 

between passenger trains and freight trains, consequences are estimated per train involved in a 

collision. Separate consequence values are estimated by representative speed and whether the 

colliding vehicle in the train is a locomotive or a car and whether the locomotive hit another 

locomotive (as in a head-on collision) or a car (as in a side or rear-end collision). All 

consequence data were derived from FRA accident reports and reflect the severity thresholds 

used in those reports. As much as possible, use was made of consequence estimates developed 

by ICF for previous risk analyses. 

One potentially important aspect of the risk analysis involving comparisons between several 

control systems is variation in the ability of each system to reduce the severity of accidents that 

occur. The effect of this variability was examined in a set of sensitivity analyses, one for each 

train control system.

To implement the capability to analyze the effect of this variability in the risk model for each 

control system considered in this analysis, consequence adjustment factors were applied to the 

base consequence values. The consequence adjustment factors are multipliers, estimated for 

each accident scenario, which when applied to the base consequence values provide the adjusted 

consequence values that are used to arrive at the model result. For the IDOT PTC model, two 

separate sets of consequence adjustment factors and adjusted consequence values are required—

one set for the system in the normal operating state and one set used in a timeout state. With a 

timeout of 120 s or greater, there are no reduced consequence accidents; it is not possible for the 

IDOT PTC system in timeout to respond quickly enough to reduce the consequences of an 

accident. More details on the adjustment of consequences are provided in Appendix F. 

2.5.4 Frequencies and Consequences for Other Accident Scenarios

Rollout and Other Intrusion Collisions

Two types of intrusion collision were analyzed—accidents occurring at or near a switch where a 

cut of cars rollout onto the main line and into the path of an active train and other intrusions 

caused by a derailment on an adjacent track or a shifted load. The frequency and consequences 

of both kinds of intrusion were estimated from historic accident data, reviewing collision 

descriptions in FRA reports to distinguish between rollouts as here defined and train-to-train 

collisions. 
29 

Diamond Crossing Collisions 

As with grade crossing collisions, diamond crossing collision frequency is estimated as a 

function of the number of times that an active freight or passenger train passes over a diamond. 

There are four diamonds in the IDOT test corridor, and as collision risks at diamond crossings 

are a concern to FRA, some effort was devoted to deriving a reliable estimate of accident 

frequency. Two approaches were used—an estimate that was based on the analysis of historic 

diamond collision data and an estimate that was based on an analogy with meets and passes. The 

historic analysis was based on accident history in Illinois only, because diamonds and diamond 

accidents appear to be very unevenly distributed around the United States, and national data 

would not be representative. The second approach involved developing an estimate of the 

occurrence of “signals passed at danger” that led to collisions and applying this to operations 

across a diamond and reconciling the two estimates. Consequences for diamond collisions are 

the same as for train-to-train side collisions.

Overspeed Derailments

Frequencies and consequences for overspeed accidents were derived directly from FRA data, 

with a careful review of the accident description to ensure that the accident fit with the definition 

of overspeed. For example, a collision that results from not observing restricted speed rules in 

poor visibility is treated as a collision in the model because of the difference in consequences. It 

is noteworthy that for passenger trains especially, overspeed derailments often result from not 

observing a speed limit at the turnout into a siding rather than exceeding a posted speed on the 

mail line. This means a straight route with few speed restrictions on the main line is not immune 

from overspeed derailments. 

Broken Rail Derailments

A few broken rail accidents involve a complete rail break before the arrival of a train. The track 

circuit detects the rail break, and approaching trains are warned via wayside signals and the train 

control system. Complete pull-aparts cause only a small fraction of all broken rail derailments, 

but given the large number of derailments overall, preventing a small fraction could be a 

significant contribution to overall safety. In the model, the reference case broken rail frequency 

is for all broken rail derailments, and the fraction of those derailments that could be prevented by 

PTC or cab signals with either ATS or ATC is entered as a preventability factor. Both broken 

rail frequency and consequences were derived directly from historic FRA data for the reference 

case.

Grade Crossing Collisions

Grade crossing collision frequencies and consequences were derived from historic FRA data for 

grade crossing collisions classified as train accidents by FRA. Grade crossing accidents that do 

not cause damage to railroad equipment exceeding the FRA accident reporting threshold are not 

included. This means that consequences only include injuries and fatalities for railroad 

employees and passengers and damage to railroad property. Total consequences do not include 
30 

casualties among highway vehicle occupants or damage to highway vehicles. Extensive use was 

made of grade crossing collision data from previous ICF corridor risk analyses. 

Grade crossing collisions were included in the analysis because of the feature of PTC that 

notifies approaching trains of a crossing warning system malfunction. This forewarning means 

that the PTC-equipped train may be able to prevent a crossing accident by slowing or stopping 

before the crossing or by earlier implementation of operating procedures for a failed crossing. 

Work Zone Intrusions

Work zone intrusions can result in collisions with maintenance or inspection equipment, as well 

as hitting members of a work crew. Collisions with equipment are reported as train-to-train or 

intrusion collisions and have been included in the model under those categories. Intrusions that 

cause casualties among track workers not reported as collisions are included in the model under 

this heading. Injury and fatality rates per million train-miles are estimated from historic data for 

on-track maintenance of way employees and contractors after attempting to distinguish between

those in formal work zones that would be protected by PTC and those that would not be so 

protected.

Summary of Accident Frequencies

Accident frequencies developed for the CTC reference case are summarized in Table 2.2.
31 

Table 2.2. CTC Reference Case Accident Frequencies

Scenarios Units Accident Frequency

Passenger Freight

Train-to-train 

collisions Per million train-miles 0.03 0.03 

Rollout Intrusions Per million train-miles 0.0086 0.0144 

Other intrusions Per million train-miles 0.0144 0.0086 

Broken rails Per million train-miles 0.0167 0.0556 

Overspeed Per million train-miles 0.0110 0.0160 

Work zone intrusions Injuries/fatalities

per million train-miles 0.164/0.0164† 0.083/0.0083†

Diamonds Per million diamond passes 0.100 0.100 

Grade crossings Per million crossing passes 0.80‡ 0.36‡

†

Varies by train speed; these are for passenger trains at 79 mph and freight trains at 50 mph. ‡

Varies by speed and crossing type; these are for crossings with gates and lights, passenger trains at 79 mph and 

freight trains at 50 mph.

2.5.5 Preventability Factors

Preventability factors are the fraction of accidents that would have happened with CTC that are 

estimated to be prevented by the train control system being analyzed. They are the most critical 

inputs to the models because they drive the results of the comparison between the different train 

control systems. For example, if a particular preventability factor is 0.8, then this means that 80 

percent of the accidents that would have occurred with CTC are prevented by the particular train 

control system being considered and 20 percent still take place.

Table 2.3 gives a basic set of preventability factors for the IDOT PTC operating normally and in 

timeout and for cab signals with both ATS and ATC. Full details of the derivation of these data 

and variations for sensitivity analyses for all analysis cases are provided in Appendix F. 
32 

Table 2.3. Preventability Factors for IDOT PTC and Cab Signals with ATS/ATC

Scenarios

Preventability Factor

IDOT PTC 

Normal 

IDOT 

PTC in 

Timeout

UP

Cab Signals 

with ATS

NEC

Cab Signals 

with ATC

Train-to-train collisions 0.90† 0.90† 0.70 0.85 

Rollout intrusions 0.30 0 0.35 0.43 

Other intrusions 0.05 0 0.10 0.12 

Broken rails 0.04 0 0.06 0.08 

Overspeed 0.80 0.50 0 0 

Work zone intrusions 0.50 0.25 0 0 

Diamonds 0.90† 0.90† 0.70† 0.85†

Grade crossings 0.04 0 0 0 

Comments on the derivation of preventability values are: 

• For the cases in Table 2.3 marked with (†), there is a chance of a conflict between equipped 

and unequipped trains, which reduces preventability, because all through trains and some 

local freight trains are unequipped. With diamond crossing collisions, the crossing train 

(always belonging to railroad companies other than UP) is also assumed to be unequipped. 

The model assumes an equipped train responds to any control system input with a reliability 

represented by the preventability factor. The model performs a separate calculation of the 

probability that an accident resulting from a signal violation by an unequipped train can be 

prevented by the response of the equipped train. In the PTC case, this calculation is done for 

both the normal operating state and the timeout state. In the ATS and ATC analysis cases, all 

freight and passenger trains are assumed equipped with the control system, and the separate 

calculation is not needed. 

• The value of 0.90 for the preventability of train-to-train collisions among PTC-equipped 

trains is a conservative estimate. PTC will prevent almost all collisions, except for collisions 

with on-track maintenance equipment outside of designated work zones, collisions caused by 

brake failures, incorrect or out-of-date data entered into the PTC system for any reason, and 

very rare “wrong side” or false “all clear” indications by PTC. Model runs with PTC 

preventability set at high and low values of 0.94 and 0.88 illustrate the sensitivity of results to 

this estimate. 

• Preventability for cab signals with ATS of 0.70 is estimated from the actual performance of 

UP cab signals compared with CTC. Because the estimate depends on sparse data, risk 

calculations were also carried out for values of 0.60 and 0.80. 

• Likewise, risk calculations with preventability set at 0.80 and 0.90 were carried out for cab 

signals with ATC to illustrate the sensitivity of results to preventability estimates. 
33 

• Preventability of collisions between a PTC-equipped and an unequipped train is calculated in 

the model as a function of train speeds and of equipped train location relative to the 

unequipped train when the violation takes place. A similar calculation provides an estimate 

of the preventability of collisions at a diamond crossing for all control systems analyzed. 

• Rollout intrusions will be detected by track circuits and switch position monitors. The 

estimate of 0.30 for PTC in normal state is derived using the same calculation regarding train 

locations speeds as was used for collisions with unequipped trains. Preventability is higher 

for cab signals with ATS or ATC because of the quicker response of coded track circuits and 

the ability of these track circuits to detect intrusions ahead of an approaching train in the 

same signal block. 

• It is judged that very few “other intrusions” and broken rails will be prevented by any of the 

train control systems, because only a small fraction of these accidents will be detectable by 

the track circuits in any case. Cab signals with ATS or ATC perform better than PTC 

because of the quicker response of coded track circuits to a detected event. 

• PTC will prevent most overspeed derailments because of the speed monitoring and 

enforcement feature. Preventability will be reduced in the timeout operating state because of 

possible delays to messages advising the train of new slow orders. Although rare, such a 

delay could result in a very dangerous “false all clear” situation. Cab signals with ATS or 

ATC do not monitor or enforce civil speed restrictions and cannot prevent overspeed 

derailments. 

• The preventability of work zone casualties is based on a review of casualty data and an 

estimate of what fraction of these casualties are potentially preventable, because they 

occurred in a designated work zone. As with overspeed accidents, and for similar reasons, 

preventability is reduced in timeout. In addition, PTC cannot protect against accidents 

caused by the incorrect entry of work zone or temporary slow order locations in the system. 

Cab signals with ATS do not monitor or enforce work zone restrictions. 

• Grade crossing collisions can be prevented by PTC only where the collision was caused by a 

crossing warning system malfunction. The preventability estimates are based on FRA data 

regarding such malfunctions. 

2.6 Measures of Risk Calculated by the Model

The model calculates five measures of risk for each of the accident scenarios described in 

Section 2.4, and for each Sub-corridor, season and operating state as defined in Sections 2.3.1 

and 2.3.2. These are:

• Estimated number of FRA-reportable accidents for each accident scenario and in total over a 

10-year period. FRA-reportable accidents are those that exceed the FRA’s threshold cost of 

damage to railroad-owned plant and equipment. 

• Estimated number of injuries in FRA-reportable accidents over 10 years of operation of the 

IDOT test corridor. 

• Estimated number of fatalities in FRA-reportable accidents over 10 years of operation of the 

IDOT test corridor. 
34 

• Estimated cost of damage to railroad plant and equipment over 10 years, as reported to FRA 

in FRA accident reports. No attempt has been made to estimate non-FRA-reportable 

accident costs or the cost of damage to highway vehicles in grade crossing collisions. 

• A financial measure of total accident consequences over 10 years obtained by adding damage 

cost to the cost of injuries and fatalities, using a standard DOT cost per fatality of $3 million 

and a cost per injury of $100,000. 

Costs and casualties are calculated over 10 years so that the numbers, especially those related to 

injuries and fatalities, are large enough to be easily comprehended by reviewers of the results.
35 

3. Risk Analysis Results 

3.1 Introduction

The chapter provides a description and an interpretation of the results of the comparative risk 

analyses of IDOT PTC and the two base case systems, together with the values of the key input 

data. This includes:

• Results from the IDOT PTC risk analysis for the system in its intended configuration; 

• Effects of increasing or decreasing timeout and latency on IDOT PTC safety performance;

• A comparison of the IDOT PTC system with the base case train control systems—cab signals 

system with both ATS and ATC; and

• Results from sensitivity analyses: 

– Sensitivity of results to varying preventability estimates for all three train control 

systems; and

– Sensitivity to differences between the control systems in the reduction of accident 

consequences from the reference case. 

This chapter presents a summary and discussion of the principal results of the analyses, 

supported by tables as required. Full results from all model runs are presented in electronic form 

in Appendix G, together with examples of the actual risk models used in the analysis (provided 

on CD). Appendix G contains the following: 

• Results Summaries PTC, ATS and ATC Cab Sigs complete.xls - an Excel Worksheet with 

documented results for each of the analysis cases listed in Table 3.1;

• IDOT Risk Model, Basic PTC Case TO120 Lat10 Final.xls - an example of the complete risk 

model prepared for PTC with a timeout duration of 120 s and a latency of 10 s; 

• IDOT Risk Model, Cab Sig-ATS 70% Case Full Year Final.xls - an example of the risk model 

prepared for the cab signal system employing ATS with 70 percent preventability.

• IDOT Risk Model, Cab Sig-ATC 85% Case Full Year Final.xls - an example of the risk 

model prepared for the cab signal system employing ATC with 85 percent preventability. 
36 

Table 3.1. List of Risk Analyses Performed and Included in the Results Workbook in 

Appendix G

Train 

Control 

System 

Analyzed

Ref.

Number

Title Used in Results 

Summary Workbook Description of Analysis Case 

IDOT 

PTC 

system

1 PTC Basic TO120 Basic PTC case: timeout 120 s, latency 10 s 

2 PTC TO240 PTC Case: timeout 240 s, latency 10 s 

3 PTC TO360 PTC Case: timeout 360 s, Latency 10 s 

4 PTC TO60 PTC Case: timeout 60 s, Latency 10 s 

5 PTC TO20 PTC Case: timeout 20 s, Latency 10 s 

6 PTC Lat 20 PTC Case: timeout 120 s, Latency 20 s 

7 PTC Lat 5 PTC Case: timeout 120 s, Latency 5 s 

8 PTC Basic 88% PTC case w/ preventability reduced from 90 to 88 

% 

9 PTC Basic 94% PTC case w/ preventability increased from 90 to 

94% 

10 PTC Basic Red. Sev’ty Basic PTC case w/ reduced severity of 

consequences 

UP cab 

signals + 

ATS

11 ATS Basic, 70% Basic case: cab signal and ATS, 70% 

preventability

12 ATS 80% Cab signal and ATS, 80% preventability

13 ATS 60% Cab signal and ATS, 60% preventability

14 ATS Basic 70% Red. 

Sev’ty

Basic ATS case w/ reduced severity of 

consequences

Northeast 

Corridor 

ATC

15 NEC-ATC Basic 85% Basic NEC-ATC case w/ 85% preventability

16 NEC-ATC 80% NEC-ATC w/ 80% preventability

17 NEC-ATC 90% NEC-ATC w/ 90% preventability

18 NEC Basic 85% Red. 

Sev’ty

Basic NEC-ATC case w/ reduced severity of 

consequences 

CTC 

reference 

case

19 CTC Ref CTC reference case

All data presented in this report are taken from the corresponding model results worksheets. 

Model results are presented and discussed in the following sequence: 

• IDOT PTC risk analyses showing the effects of varying latency and timeout; 
37 

• Comparisons between the IDOT PTC system and the ATS and ATC systems with cab 

signals; 

• Sensitivity of analysis results to variations in accident preventability estimates for the three 

train control systems; and

• Sensitivity of analysis results to differences in consequence estimates among the three train 

control systems. 

 Some suggestions for further model runs are also provided.

3.2 Summary of Results – IDOT PTC Timeout and Latency

3.2.1 Effect of Varying Timeout on IDOT PTC Safety Performance

A series of model runs were performed to explore the effects of varying timeout on the safety 

performance as measured by the dollar value of harm. The full details of the results are provided 

in the spreadsheet containing the results sheet for each of the model runs (see Appendix G). 

Timeout was varied in the analyses from a base value of 120 s. Given the capacity of the radio 

communications system originally proposed for the IDOT PTC system, 120 s was judged to be 

the lowest practical timeout that would not lead to communications delays and delay-related

timeout events. A higher capacity communications system would be needed if timeout needs to 

be lower to achieve required safety or operational performance.

The first point to note from the analysis is that the number of train-miles operated during timeout 

is a tiny fraction of total train-miles. Thus, even if there is elevated risk during timeout, the 

overall impact of this risk increase on the overall risk of operating the corridor is very small. 

On the basis of the assumptions regarding the occurrence of timeout events discussed in Section 

2.3.2, the relevant values are as follows:

Estimated percentage of train-miles operated in the timeout state: 0.1395% (Model Input) 

Total harm in the timeout state (PTC 120-second timeout case): $4,378†

Total harm with PTC operating normally: $2,733,539‡

Estimated percentage of harm in the timeout state: 0.1602% (from above numbers) 

Ratio (harm in timeout)/

 (harm operating normally over the same train-miles): 0.1602/0.1395 

= 1.148 or 14.8% increase 

†

from Table R6d of IDOT Risk Model, Basic PTC Case TO120 Lat10 Final.xls 

‡

from Table R7d of IDOT Risk Model, Basic PTC Case TO120 Lat10 Final.xls

Thus, operations during timeout contribute only 0.16% of total risk in combined normal and 

timeout operation. The primary reason that the contribution is so modest is that PTC-preventable 

collisions between two equipped trains will still be prevented, even if the system is in timeout. 

Both trains will comply with previously issued nonconflicting authorities. Risk increases in 

otherwise preventable collisions with unequipped trains and in some of the other potentially 

preventable accident scenarios such as grade crossings, and because of broken rails and 
38 

intrusions, where the warning will not reach the PTC-equipped train in time to prevent an 

accident. The estimate of the number and duration of timeout events needed to perform this 

calculation was determined by considering timeout duration and the total percentage of trainmiles operated in fallback mode. A simple example of this calculation is if timeout is 2 min and 

the time to repair is 90 min, then the distance traveled by trains during timeout is 1/45 of distance 

in fallback mode. If the total distance in fallback mode is 5 percent of total mileage, then the 

distance traveled in timeout is 5/45 or 0.11%. The detailed calculation takes into account the 

difference in characteristics and effects of on-board and wayside PTC failures. 

Table 3.2 gives the results of varying timeout between 20 and 360 s; latency was held constant at 

10 s. Timeout values are the total time the train is operating between receiving the last valid 

communication and the expiration of timeout. The risk increment in the table is the increase in 

risk during timeout compared with the same period of normal operation with 10-second latency.

Table 3.2. Effect of Varying Timeout on Risk Associated with IDOT PTC with

Latency of 10 Seconds

Timeout 

(s)

Total Harm 

in Whole 

Corridor†

($1,000s) 

Total Harm 

in 

Timeout‡

($1,000s) 

Percent of 

Total 

Corridor 

Harm

(%)

Percent 

TrainMiles in 

Timeout¤

(%)

Risk

Increase

(%)

20 2,733.181 0.675 0.0247 0.0233 6.0 

60 2,733.294 2.126 0.0778 0.0698 11.5 

120 2,733.539 4.378 0.1602 0.1395 14.8 

240 2.733.896 8.750 0.3201 0.2791 14.7 

360 2,734.247 13.115 0.4797 0.4186 14.6 

† Table R7d on “PTC TO20,” “PTC TO60,” “PTC Basic TO120,” “PTC TO240,” and “PTC TO360” sheets of Results 

Summaries PTC, ATS and ATC Cab Sigs complete.xls, Appendix G. ‡

 Table R6d on “PTC TO20,” “PTC TO60,” “PTC Basic TO120,” “PTC TO240,” and “PTC TO360” sheets of Results 

Summaries PTC, ATS and ATC Cab Sigs complete.xls, Appendix G. ¤ Percent miles in timeout are model inputs.

As would be expected, the impact on risk is roughly proportional to timeout, because this 

directly affects train-miles operated in timeout. The percentage increase in risk per train-mile 

during timeout versus regular operation increases up to a timeout of approximately 120 s, after 

which it stays roughly constant. At low timeout values, performance approaches that of regular 

operation (with a latency of 10 s). Hypothetically, if timeout were reduced to 10 s, identical to 

latency, then safety performance during timeout would be identical to that in normal operation. 

When timeout equals or exceeds 120 s, there is no further increase in the per train-mile risk 

during timeout, but the aggregate risk increment during timeout increases as a result of the 

increase in train-miles operated during timeout. 
39 

The primary conclusion from the above results is that timeout does not have a material effect on 

the overall safety performance of the IDOT corridor. This is because the aggregate train-miles 

operated in the timeout state is very small, not exceeding 0.5 percent of total train miles for the 

highest timeout analyzed, and the heightened risk over this period, although significant, cannot 

have much impact on overall safety performance. Thus, it is difficult to recommend timeout 

value based on safety alone, and other factors such as operations benefits should be considered. 

Note that this conclusion applies only to this corridor, which is used by an average of 

approximately eight trains per day. The conclusions in areas of higher traffic density and/or with 

a greater proportion of unequipped trains could be different. 

3.2.2 Effect of Latency on Risk

Model runs were performed to illustrate the effect of varying latency on risk while holding 

timeout constant. The IDOT PTC base case assumes a 10-second latency period, based on field 

observations of trials with a preliminary version of IDOT PTC. The variations investigated were 

doubling and halving this value. The results are shown in Table 3.3. 

Table 3.3. Effect of Varying Latency on Risk Associated with IDOT PTC with Timeout of 

120 Seconds

Latency

(s)

Total Accident Cost†

($1,000s)

5 2,717.0

10 2,733.5

20 2,772.9

† Tables R7d on “PTC Lat 5,” “PTC Basic TO120,” and “PTC Lat 20” 

sheet; Results Summaries PTC, ATS and ATC Cab Sigs complete.xls, 

Appendix G.

The effects of varying latency between 5 and 20 s are very small, showing a difference of only 

$55,900 or 2 percent of total accident costs of $2.77 million. The difference can be attributed 

primarily to the increase in train-to-train collisions between equipped and unequipped trains as 

latency increases, with limited additional risk increments due to increasing risk from intrusion 

collisions and other accidents.

3.3 Comparisons among IDOT PTC, Cab Signals with ATS, and Cab Signals 

with ATC

This section discusses the results of a direct comparison between the safety performance of the 

IDOT PTC system and each of the two base case systems, the UP four-aspect cab signals with 

continuous ATS and an ATC system with four-aspect cab signals comparable to that installed on 

the NEC. Comparisons are provided between estimated total accident costs for PTC-relevant 

accidents by accident scenario and in total for the three control systems. This information is 

used in conjunction with similar comparisons of injuries, fatalities, and the estimated number of 
40 

accidents. The preventability estimates used in these analyses are considered the best that could 

be made within the constraints of this study. 

Tables 3.4, 3.5, and 3.6 provide direct comparisons between estimated total accident numbers, 

costs, and casualties, taken directly from the models for the basic IDOT PTC (with a timeout of 

120 s and a latency of 10 s), the UP cab signal system with ATS (using a preventability of 70 

percent), and the NEC cab signal system with ATC (using a preventability of 85 percent) 

analysis cases. All accident counts, costs, and casualties are for a period of 10 years of operation 

of the IDOT test corridor. The costs in Table 3.4 include the cost of injuries, fatalities, and 

railroad property damage as reported to FRA in $1,000s. Total costs are calculated assuming a 

cost of $100,000 for an injury and $3,000,000 for a fatality. No attempt has been made to add 

other direct and indirect accident costs (e.g., to nonrailroad property—including highway 

vehicles at grade crossings—and indirect costs for wreck clearing and service delays).
41 

Table 3.4. Comparison of Total Accident Costs for IDOT PTC (Timeout = 120 s, Latency = 

10 s), UP Cab Signal with ATS (70% Preventability) and NEC Cab Signal with ATC (85% 

Preventability) Base Cases, PTC-Relevant Accidents

Train 

Type Accident Scenario

IDOT PTC

with

TO = 120 s, 

Lat = 10 s 

($1,000s)†

UP

Cab

Signal 

with 

ATS,

70% 

Prev.

($1,000s)†

NEC

Cab

Signal 

with 

ATC, 

85% 

Prev.

($1,000s)†

Comparison,

IDOT PTC to Cab 

Signal with ATS & 

ATC

Difference

PTC-ATS

($1,000s) 

Difference

PTC-ATC

($1,000s) 

Passenger

Train-to-train collision 309 790 395 -481 -86

Intrusion collision 321 303 291 18 30

Diamond collision 3 4 3 -1 0

Overspeed 60 301‡ 301‡ -241 -241

Broken rail 439 430 421 9 18

Work zone violation 98 196‡ 196‡ -98 -98

Grade crossing 

collision 1384 1442‡ 1442‡ -58 -58 

Total – all scenarios 2,614 3,466 3,049 -852 -435

Freight 

Train-to-train collision 9 8 4 1 5

Intrusion collision 3 3 3 0 0

Diamond collision 2 3 2 -1 0

Overspeed 7 10‡ 10‡ -3 -3

Broken rail 34 33 32 1 2

Work zone violation 23 30‡ 30‡ -7 -7

Grade crossing 

collision 40 41‡ 41‡ -1 -1 

Total – all scenarios 118 128 122 -10 -4

Total, passenger + freight 2,732 3,594 3,171 -862 -439 

†

 Table R7d on “PTC Basic TO120” sheet and Table R3d on “ATS Basic 70%” and “NEC_ATC Basic 85%” sheets; Results 

Summaries PTC, ATS and ATC Cab Sigs complete.xls, Appendix G. ‡

 These values represent full accident costs; no risk reductions are present in these accident scenarios with these control system 

combinations. 

Overall, the results show that IDOT PTC is estimated to reduce accident costs by 24 percent (a 

savings of $862,000 against costs of $3,594,000) when compared with ATS base case for the set 

of PTC-relevant accident scenarios analyzed. When the ATC base case is considered, the IDOT 

PTC is estimated to reduce accident costs by 14 percent (a savings of $439,000 against costs of 

$3,171,000). Even given the uncertainty regarding the estimates for the values of model inputs 

and calculations for the effectiveness of the train control systems in preventing accidents, these 

results indicate that the IDOT PTC is likely to pass the test of providing a level of safety 

equivalent to or better than either of the base cases considered in this analysis.
42 

A comparison of accident costs over a 10-year period between the ATS and ATC base cases 

shows that the ATC base case has total costs $423,000 (12 percent) less than those for the ATS 

base case. 

The principal sources of the advantage of the IDOT PTC system over the UP cab signal system

with ATS and the NEC cab signal system with ATC are fewer train-to-train collisions, overspeed 

derailments, and work zone incursions. The difference in train-to-train collisions between the 

IDOT PTC and the UP ATS base case is much more pronounced than the difference between the 

IDOT PTC and the NEC ATC base case. The following paragraphs discuss how the differences 

in the capabilities of the three control systems contribute to the advantage of IDOT PTC over the 

cab signal base cases:

• Train-to-train collisions: For the purpose of this analysis, train-to-train collisions are defined 

as collisions between two trains operating on the main tracks of the IDOT test corridor. PTC 

will enforce safe speeds down to a stop. Cab signaling with ATS will warn the engineer of a 

more restrictive signal aspect; it will not enforce that aspect if the warning is acknowledged. 

ATC will enforce speed reduction in accordance with signal indications down to restricting 

speed but not to an absolute stop. The practice of slowing the PTC-equipped passenger trains 

to 79 mph when near an unequipped train also contributes to the advantage. With cab signals 

and ATS/ATC, there are no unequipped trains, and this practice does not apply. On the basis 

of a review of FRA-reported main-line accidents on the NEC between 1986 and 2006, clearly 

ATC is highly effective in preventing collision accidents and will reduce collision speed for 

those accidents that do occur. The data also show that a significant fraction of NEC collision 

accidents are low-speed “fender benders” in major passenger terminals (e.g., New York Penn 

Station and Washington Union Station) that have relatively minor consequences. With no 

major stations or terminals on the IDOT test corridor, these accidents were not considered in 

estimating accident frequencies for the ATC analysis.

• Overspeed accidents: PTC will enforce temporary and permanent speed limits but cab 

signals do not. From accident data, most passenger train overspeed accidents appear to be 

due to failing to slow down to take a turnout or crossover rather than exceeding a main track 

speed limit or slow order. 

• Work zone violations: Fewer work zone violations, leading to fewer casualties among track 

maintenance employees and contractors (12.2 percent of the difference): PTC can provide 

this protection but cab signals do not. This number is more speculative than the others, and 

more work is desirable on the exact circumstances of casualties to better determine the 

effectiveness of PTC in work zone protection and the related issue of collisions with on-track 

maintenance and inspection equipment moving to and from formal work zones. 

Diamond collisions are between a train operating on the main track of the IDOT test corridor and 

a train operating on another railroad that crosses the IDOT test corridor. Diamond collisions are 

also collisions between trains, but the risk calculation is different. An intrusion collision is 

between a train operating on the IDOT test corridor and a car or a cut of cars (not a train) that has 

incorrectly moved onto the main track from a connecting track. More information on accident 

scenario definitions can be found in Section 2.4. 
43 

Passenger train costs dominate the results. Freight train accident costs on this corridor are almost 

insignificant. However, it should be noted that there are only an average of about two freight 

train trips over the corridor (averaging Sub-corridors and seasons) versus six passenger train 

trips. Freight train accidents would be more significant if there were, say, 10 freight train trips 

daily.

Table 3.5 provides estimated injuries and fatalities for the same IDOT PTC and the cab signal 

cases addressed in Table 3.4, again using FRA reporting criteria for casualties in train accidents. 

Table 3.5 gives the corresponding accident counts for the three train control systems. 
44 

Table 3.5. Comparison of Casualties for IDOT PTC (Timeout = 120 s, Latency = 10 s), 

UP Cab Signal with ATS (70% Preventability) and NEC Cab Signal with ATC (85% 

Preventability) Base Cases, PTC-Relevant Accidents

Train 

Type Accident Scenario

IDOT PTC Case,

Timeout = 120 s, 

Latency = 10 s 

UP Cab Signal 

with ATS Case,

70% Preventability 

NEC Cab Signal 

with ATC Case,

85% Preventability 

Injuries

per

10 

Years†

Fatalities

per

10 

Years†

Injuries

per

10 

Years†

Fatalities

per

10 

Years†

Injuries

per

10 

Years†

Fatalities

per

10 Years†

Passenger

Train-to-train 

collision 1.202 0.046 3.065 0.117 1.533 0.058 

Intrusion collision 1.287 0.046 1.215 0.043 1.166 0.041

Diamond collision 0.013 0.000 0.019 0.001 0.013 0.000

Overspeed 0.265 0.004 1.321‡ 0.021‡ 1.321‡ 0.021‡

Broken rail 1.925 0.031 1.885 0.030 1.845 0.030

Work zone 

violation 0.245 0.025 0.490‡ 0.049‡ 0.490‡ 0.049‡

Grade crossing 

collision 5.731 0.085 5.969‡ 0.089‡ 5.969‡ 0.089‡

Total – all 

scenarios 10.668 0.237 13.964 0.350 12.337 0.288 

Freight 

Train-to-train 

collision 0.014 0.001 0.011 0.001 0.006 0.001 

Intrusion collision 0.006 0.001 0.005 0.001 0.005 0.000

Diamond collision 0.003 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.003 0.000

Overspeed 0.003 0.000 0.005‡ 0.000‡ 0.005‡ 0.000‡

Broken rail 0.016 0.002 0.015 0.002 0.015 0.002

Work zone 

violation 0.058 0.006 0.074‡ 0.007‡ 0.074‡ 0.007‡

Grade crossing 

collision 0.088 0.005 0.090‡ 0.005‡ 0.090‡ 0.005‡

Total – all 

scenarios 0.188 0.015 0.204 0.016 0.198 0.015 

Total, passenger + freight 10.856 0.252 14.168 0.366 12.535 0.303 

†

 Table R7d on “PTC Basic TO120” sheet and Table R3d on “ATS Basic 70%” and “NEC_ATC Basic 85%” sheets; Results 

Summaries PTC, ATS and ATC Cab Sigs complete.xls, Appendix G. ‡

 These values represent full injury/fatality counts; no risk reductions are present in these accident scenarios with these control 

system combinations. 
45 

Table 3.6. Comparison of Accident Counts for IDOT PTC (Timeout = 120 s, Latency = 10 s), 

UP Cab Signal with ATS (70% Preventability) and NEC Cab Signal with ATC (85% 

Preventability) Base Cases, PTC-Relevant Accidents

Train 

Type Accident Scenario

Accident Counts/

10 Years†

Comparison,

IDOT PTC to Cab 

Signal with ATS & 

ATC

IDOT PTC

with

TO = 120 s, 

Lat = 10 s 

UP

Cab 

Signal 

with 

ATS,

70% 

Prev.

NEC

Cab 

Signal 

with 

ATC, 

85% 

Prev.

Difference

PTC-ATS

Difference

PTC-ATC

Passenger

Train-to-train collision 0.019 0.044 0.022 -0.025 -0.003

Intrusion collision 0.049 0.046 0.043 0.003 0.006

Diamond collision 0.001 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.000

Overspeed 0.005 0.027† 0.027† -0.022 -0.022

Broken rail 0.039 0.039 0.038 0.000 0.001

Work zone violation na na na na na

Grade crossing 

collision 1.935 2.016† 2.016† -0.081 -0.081 

Total – excl. grade 

Xings 0.113 0.158 0.131 -0.045 -0.018 

Freight 

Train-to-train collision 0.012 0.011 0.005 0.001 0.007

Intrusion collision 0.020 0.016 0.015 0.004 0.005

Diamond collision 0.007 0.008 0.007 -0.001 0.000

Overspeed 0.010 0.015† 0.015† -0.005 -0.005

Broken rail 0.051 0.049 0.048 0.002 0.003

Work zone violation na na na na na

Grade crossing 

collision 0.251 0.255† 0.255† -0.004 -0.004 

Total – excl. grade 

Xings 0.100 0.099 0.090 0.001 0.010 

Total, passenger + freight

excluding grade Xings 0.213 0.257 0.221 -0.044 -0.008 

†

 Table R7d on “PTC Basic TO120” sheet and Table R3d on “ATS Basic 70%” and “NEC_ATC Basic 85%” sheets; Results 

Summaries PTC, ATS and ATC Cab Sigs complete.xls, Appendix G. ‡

 These values represent full accident counts; no risk reductions are present in these accident scenarios with these control system 

combinations.

To summarize, the difference in the risk of train-to-train collisions between PTC and the cab 

signal with ATS or ATC is a direct result of the difference between collision preventability 

estimates for the two systems. In the case of PTC, effectiveness in preventing collisions that 
46 

would have taken place with the CTC reference case is conservatively estimated at 90 percent. 

The only collisions possible would be those involving unequipped trains and on-rail maintenance 

equipment outside of formal work zones, those not preventable by any train control system (such 

as due to braking failures), or very rare “wrong side” PTC system failures.

In the cab signal with ATS case, the corresponding best estimate for effectiveness in preventing 

train-to-train collisions is 0.70 (or 70 percent), based on historic data. Unlike PTC, the ATS does 

not enforce signal indications after the train crew has acknowledged a warning; there are 

examples of collision accidents with ATS taking place after the warning was acknowledged. 

Causes include inattention, falling asleep, failure to observe restricted speed rules, and misjudged 

braking. If cab signals with ATS and PTC are considered equally effective in preventing trainto-train collisions, PTC will have higher costs for train-to-train collisions than cab signals 

because of the presence of unequipped trains. The 70-percent estimate for cab signals with ATS 

is based on rather sparse data (per Appendix F), so sensitivity analyses were performed with 

effectiveness set at 60 and 80 percent; results of this consideration are provided in Section 3.4. 

As stated earlier, a review of FRA-reported main-line accidents on the NEC has shown that ATC 

is highly effective in preventing collision accidents and will reduce collision speed for those 

accidents that do occur. The primary challenge in interpreting these data lies in the very large 

differences in the operating environment between the NEC, which is predominately high-density, 

high-speed, multiple-track territory, and the IDOT test corridor with single track and low to 

moderate traffic density. After an effort to adjust for these differences is made, preventability for 

main-line train-to-train collision accidents of approximately 0.85 (or 85 percent) was estimated 

and used in the model and for operations away from major passenger terminals. Given the 

uncertainties in this estimate, a sensitivity analysis comprising model runs with 80 and 90 

percent preventability values was prepared to help support analysis conclusions. The results of 

these analyses are also tabulated and discussed in Section 3.4. 

Observations on the results include: 

• Considering Table 3.4, cab signals with ATS/ATC exhibited a small advantage (lower 

accident costs) over PTC only for freight trains involved in train-to-train collisions and in

intrusion and broken rail accidents. In intrusion/rollout events and broken rail derailments, 

coded track circuits are able to better detect the event and provide prompt warning to the 

approaching train. The total advantage these systems offer in terms of accident costs are

massively offset by the advantage of PTC in all other accident scenarios. It is also 

noteworthy that the IDOT PTC advantage is still significant, even if the benefits from 

additional PTC functionality (overspeed, work zones, and grade crossings) are disregarded. 

• The results for injuries and fatalities in accidents (Table 3.5) show the same pattern as overall 

accident costs. This is as expected, given that casualties (mainly in passenger train accidents) 

are the largest individual contributor to total costs. 

• The costs of freight train accidents have little influence on the overall results, given the high 

costs associated with passenger casualties and damage to passenger equipment. The 

freight/passenger difference is less marked in counts of trains in accidents (Table 3.6), which 

show that passenger and freight involvement are as would be expected from relative trainmiles operated and the lack of PTC on many freight trains. 
47 

• PTC is able to prevent only a relatively small fraction of grade crossing collisions and broken 

rail derailments. This is mainly because the detectable hazardous conditions (total rail break 

before train arrival or malfunctioning crossing warning systems) are a minor part of the 

overall risk from those scenarios. However, the financial benefit from preventing even a 

small fraction of these accidents is substantial. 

• Harm to passenger trains and their occupants dominate the risk. This is entirely logical and 

is derived from the differences between passenger and freight equipment and their 

operations: 

- Passenger trains have about 200 occupants at risk of becoming casualties in an accident 

(in this analysis), compared with two or three people that make up a freight train crew.

- Passenger trains operate at a higher speed, increasing accident consequences. 

- Passenger equipment is more valuable and more costly to repair than freight equipment. 

- Finally on this corridor, six daily one-way passenger train trips are compared with an 

average of two to three freight train trips. 

It should be noted that both PTC and cab signal-based systems with trains operating at up to 110 

mph provide a substantial safety improvement over the reference case of conventional CTC at 

speeds up to 79 mph (as the line is currently being operated), as shown in Table 3.7. If the 

acceptability criterion had been a comparison with the current operation, then any of the systems 

would be acceptable. Also noteworthy, PTC provides an estimated benefit of $58.4 million from 

prevented grade crossing collisions and $18.8 million from prevented broken rail derailments, 

compared with CTC. 

Table 3.7. Comparison of Total Accident Costs for Conventional CTC, IDOT PTC 

(Timeout = 120 s, Latency = 10 s), UP Cab Signal with ATS (70% Preventability) and NEC 

Cab Signal with ATC (85% Preventability) Base Cases, PTC-Relevant Accidents

Total Accident Costs in $1,000s for PTC-Relevant Accidents†

CTC

Reference Case

IDOT PTC Case,

Timeout = 120 s,

Latency = 10 s

UP Cab Signal 

w/ATS,

70% Preventability

NEC Cab Signal 

w/ATC,

85% Preventability

Max. Speed 

(mph) 79

110

(79 mph when passing 

unequipped freight 

trains)

110 110

Scenarios

Train-toTrain

Collisions

All

Accidents

Train-toTrain

Collisions

All

Accidents

Train-toTrain

Collisions

All

Accidents

Train-toTrain

Collisions

All

Accidents

Passenger 2,089 4,855 309 2,614 790 3,466 395 3,049

Freight 26 150 9 118 8 128 4 122

Total 2,115 5,005 318 2,732 798 3,594 399 3,171

†

 Table R7d on “PTC Basic TO120” sheet and Table R3d on “ATS Basic 70%,” “NEC_ATC Basic 85%,” and “CTC Ref” 

sheets; Results Summaries PTC, ATS and ATC Cab Sigs complete.xls, Appendix G. 
48 

3.4 Sensitivity Analyses

3.4.1 Sensitivity of Results to Estimated Collision Preventability 

Preventability in the model is defined as the fraction of accidents of each type that would occur 

under conventional CTC operation with wayside signals that will be prevented by a specific train 

control system. The preventability factor in collisions between equipped trains has been 

estimated at 0.90 (or 90 percent) for the IDOT PTC, 0.70 (or 70 percent) for the UP cab signal

system with ATS and 0.85 (or 85 percent) for the NEC cab signal system with ATC. All these 

estimates are subject to some uncertainty. Sensitivity analyses using higher and lower estimates 

for preventability estimates were carried out to investigate whether this uncertainty might 

influence the conclusions from the analyses. 

Where PTC will enforce operating authorities down to an absolute stop before authority limits 

are exceeded, cab signals with ATS provide an in-cab display and a warning whenever the train 

is subject to a more restrictive signal aspect. If the train crew acknowledges the warning, the 

train can proceed under the engineer’s control. Only if the warning is not acknowledged will the 

train be stopped. Thus, the crew possibly may acknowledge a warning but then fail to observe 

the signal. An example of this kind of accident was described in National Transportation Safety 

Board (NTSB) Report RAR 99/04.1

 At Delia, KS, the crew of a UP freight train equipped with 

cab signals acknowledged the restricting signal at the entry to a passing siding but fell asleep as 

the train traveled through the siding. The train passed the red signal at the end of the siding and 

collided head-on with a train approaching the siding from the opposite direction. 

ATC differs from ATS in that it enforces braking to reduce speed when the cab signal indicates a 

more restrictive signal aspect. A penalty brake application is initiated if the engineer fails to 

apply the brakes, and brakes cannot be released until the speed is at or below the speed 

corresponding to the signal indication. Because enforced stops well short of a red signal would 

disrupt operations, ATC does not enforce below 20 mph, allowing a train to approach a red 

signal and, if the engineer in inattentive or incapacitated, pass the signal at this speed and collide 

with another train. An example of this type of accident was described by NTSB in its Railroad 

Accident Brief RAB-03-01.2 An Amtrak train approaching Baltimore station on the NEC at 

restricted speed failed to observe an interlocking signal at danger and collided with another train. 

Although the speed enforcement means that ATC will be more effective than ATS in preventing 

collisions caused by signal violations, such collisions are still possible. Thus, preventability 

values for ATC will lie between those for ATS and PTC.

PTC preventability was conservatively estimated at 90 percent, as described in Section 3.2.3. 

The cab signal preventability estimate of 70 percent was based on a limited analysis of past 

accidents. Given the small sample size, there is substantial uncertainty as to the correct figure. In 

the case of ATC, preventability was estimated at 85 percent, based principally on experiences 

 

1 National Transportation Safety Board, 1999. Collision between Union Pacific Freight Trains MKSNP-01 and 

ZSEME-29 near Delia, Kansas. July 2, 1997. Railroad Accident Report NTSB/RAR-99/04. Washington, DC.

2 National Transportation Safety Board, 2003. Collision of Amtrak Train No. 90 and MARC Train No. 437, 

Baltimore, Maryland, June 17, 2002. Railroad Accident Brief NTSB/ RAB-03-01. Washington, DC.
49 

with the NEC. In the case of ATC, the uncertainty is mainly caused by the differences in 

operating environment between the NEC and the IDOT test corridor. 

The results of the sensitivity analyses are summarized in Table 3.8 and Figure 3.1. The results 

show that even if collision preventability for cab signal with ATS is at the higher value of 80 

percent, PTC shows a significant advantage. Clearly the benefits from the additional functions 

of PTC outweigh the disadvantage of operating with some unequipped freight trains. The 

advantage would be eroded if there were more unequipped trains, or if the operating schedules 

involved more meets and passes involving an equipped and an unequipped train. 
50 

Table 3.8. Results of Cab Signal Collision Preventability Sensitivity Analyses 

Control System 

Train-to-Train 

Collision 

Preventability

Total 

Accident Cost

($1,000s)

Percent Change in 

Cost from Using 

PTC 90% Estimate

PTC

88% (low est.) 2,795 -2% 

90% (consv. best 

est.) 2,734 

94% (high est.) 2,613 +5%

UP cab signal

with ATS

60% (low est.) 3,872 -29% 

70% (best est.) 3,593 -24% 

80% (high est) 3,314 -18% 

NEC cab signal

with ATC

80% (low est.) 3,314 -18% 

85% (best est.) 3,171 -14% 

90% (high est.) 3,035 -10% 

†

 Table R7d on PTC-related sheets and Table R3d on ATS/ATC sheets, Results Summaries PTC, ATS and 

ATC Cab Sigs complete.xls, Appendix G. 

Figure 3.1. Results of Sensitivity Analysis Comparing Total Accident Costs for 

Each Train Control System Considered

2.5

3.0

Total Accident Cost 

($ millions)

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0 CTC (reference case)

ATS + cab signals

ATC + cab signals

IDOT PTC

The height of the bars for 

each train control system 

shows the range between high 

and low estimates of accident 

costs
51 

3.4.2 Sensitivity of Results to Severity Reduction 

The capability to estimate the effect of reducing accident severity was implemented by adding a 

step in compiling the accident consequences tables used as the inputs to the risk models. The 

consequence adjustment factors are multipliers, estimated for each accident scenario, which 

when applied to the base consequence values provide the adjusted consequence values used in 

separate runs of the risk models conducted for each train control system. Details associated with 

the determination of the severity reduction factors are provided in Appendix F. 

Differences in the severity of accidents between the three train control systems were thought to 

be a second-order effect and have been ignored in the primary risk calculations. Consideration 

of the ATC Base Case, where speed enforcement is a key capability, prompted a reconsideration 

of this assumption. Therefore, the capability was added to the risk models, and the effect was 

analyzed for each control system. The results are shown in Table 3.9. 

Table 3.9. Comparison of Total Accident Costs for IDOT PTC (Timeout = 120 s, Latency = 

10 s), UP Cab Signal with ATS (70% Preventability) and NEC Cab Signal with ATC 

(85% Preventability) with and without Severity Reduction, PTC-Relevant Accidents

Train Control System 

Total Accident Costs†

($1,000s over 10 years)

Without

Severity 

Reduction

With Severity 

Reduction Difference

IDOT PTC 2,732 2,662 70

UP Cab Signal with ATS 3,594 3,454 140

NEC Cab Signal with ATC 3,171 3,052 119

† Table R7d on PTC-related sheets and Table R3d on ATS/ATC sheets; Results Summaries PTC, ATS and ATC 

Cab Sigs complete.xls, Appendix G.

The effect of including severity reduction is to slightly narrow the difference between IDOT PTC 

and the other two systems. Including the severity reduction effect also reduces estimated total 

accident costs with IDOT PTC by $70,000, by $119,000 with NEC ATC, and by $140,000 with 

ATS/cab signal. Thus, including severity reduction in the analysis has only a limited effect on 

the comparison between the three systems.
52 

3.5 Closing Remarks

It should be noted that the analysis did not cover all accident scenarios, only those where PTC or 

the base case system could reduce the frequency or severity of accidents. Notably the analysis 

has omitted most derailment accidents caused by track and equipment mechanical failures 

(except broken rails) and a number of miscellaneous accidents such as fires and collisions with 

obstructions other than rail vehicles and vehicle lading. Such accidents contribute about onethird of passenger train accident consequences and 75 percent of freight train accident 

consequences. Furthermore, the analysis does not include the effects of operating in fallback 

mode after a known failure of on-train or wayside equipment. This mode was omitted from 

analysis because both the method of operation itself (conventional CTC with wayside signals) 

and the train-miles operated in fallback mode were assumed to be the same in each case and 

would not affect the comparisons.
53 

4. Conclusions and Recommendations

The risks associated with IDOT PTC, the UP cab signal system with ATS, and the NEC cab 

signal with ATC—all operated on the IDOT Corridor—were determined when considering all 

accident scenarios in which PTC or cab signals with ATS or ATC could reduce the frequency or 

severity of accidents. These scenarios include train-to-train collisions (those occurring between 

trains on the same main-line tracks), intrusion collisions, collisions at diamonds, overspeeds, 

work zone violations, grade crossing accidents, and incidents involving broken rails. The 

analysis omitted most derailment accidents caused by track and equipment mechanical failures 

(except broken rails) as well as a number of miscellaneous accidents such as fires and collisions 

with obstructions other than rail vehicles and shifted loads. The analyses did not include the 

effects of operating in fallback mode after a known failure of on-train or wayside equipment, 

because both the method of operation itself (conventional CTC with wayside signals) and the 

train-miles operated in fallback mode were assumed to be the same in each case and would not 

affect the comparisons. 

With these qualifiers in mind, the following conclusions were drawn from the analysis of the 

systems considered in this effort: 

• A series of model runs were performed to explore the effects of varying timeout and latency 

on the safety performance as measured by the dollar value of harm. On the basis of this 

analysis, the following statements can be made:

– When the IDOT PTC system is considered, even when accounting for the elevated risk 

during timeout, the overall impact of this risk increase on the overall risk of operating the 

corridor is very small. Timeout does not have a material effect on the overall safety 

performance of the IDOT corridor. This is because the aggregate train-miles operated in 

the timeout state is very small, not exceeding 0.5 percent of total train-miles, and the 

heightened risk over this period, although significant, cannot have much impact on the 

overall result.

– It is difficult to recommend a timeout value on the basis of safety alone, and other factors 

such as operations benefits should be considered, such as the avoidance of delays because 

of slow system response or unnecessary timeout events. Note that this conclusion applies 

only to this corridor, and the conclusion in areas of higher traffic density or with more 

unequipped trains could be different. 

– As with timeout, the effects of varying latency are limited and can be attributed primarily 

to the increase in collisions between equipped and unequipped train as latency increases, 

with limited additional risk increments as a result of increasing risk from intrusion 

collisions and other accidents. 

• The IDOT PTC operating with a timeout of 120 s and a latency of 10 s is estimated to reduce 

accident costs by 24 percent when compared with ATS base case and 14 percent when 

compared with the ATC base case for the set of accident scenarios analyzed. These results 

indicate that the IDOT PTC is likely to pass the test of providing a level of safety equivalent 

to or better than either of the base cases considered in this analysis. 

On the basis of accident costs during a 10-year period, the performance of ATC base case 

lies between that of the IDOT PTC and the ATS base case; the analysis resulted in the ATC 
54 

base case showing total estimated costs of $0.44 million (14 percent) greater than those for 

IDOT PTC and $0.42 million (12 percent) less than those for the ATS base case. 

The principal sources of the advantage of the IDOT PTC system over the UP cab signal 

system with ATS and the NEC cab signal system with ATC are fewer train-to-train 

collisions, overspeed derailments, and work zone incursions. The difference in train-to-train 

collisions between the IDOT PTC the UP ATS base case is much more pronounced than the 

difference between the IDOT PTC and the NEC ATC base case. Explanations for these 

differences are provided in the report. Cab signals with ATS/ATC exhibited a small 

advantage (lower accident costs) over PTC only for freight trains involved in train-to-train 

collisions and in intrusion and broken rail accidents. The total advantage these systems offer 

in terms of accident costs are massively offset by the advantage of PTC in all other accident 

scenarios analyzed. Also noteworthy, the IDOT PTC advantage is still substantial, even if 

the benefits from additional PTC functionality (overspeed, work zones, and grade crossings) 

are disregarded. 

• The results for injuries and fatalities in accidents show the same pattern as overall accident 

costs.

• Passenger train costs dominate the results for all control systems, given the high cost of 

passenger casualties and damage to passenger equipment. Freight train accident costs on this 

corridor have little influence on the overall results. However, it should be noted that there 

are only an average of about two freight train trips over the corridor (averaging Sub-corridors 

and seasons) versus six passenger train trips. 

• PTC is only able to prevent a relatively small fraction of grade crossing collisions and broken 

rail derailments. This is mainly because the detectable hazardous conditions (total rail break 

before train arrival or malfunctioning crossing warning systems) are a minor part of the 

overall risk from those scenarios. However, the financial benefit from preventing even a 

small fraction of these accidents is substantial.

• Both PTC and cab signal-based systems with trains operating at up to 110 mph provide a 

substantial safety improvement over the reference case of conventional CTC at speeds up to 

79 mph (as the line is currently being operated). If the acceptability criterion had been a 

comparison with the current operation, then any of the systems would be acceptable. 

The analyses performed for this study also have limitations that should be borne in mind when 

reviewing the results and conclusions quoted above. These are: 

• The analysis and accident costs presented include only PTC-relevant accidents. The costs for 

accident risks that are not changed in any way by PTC or the base case control systems are 

not included in the total. These include most accidents as a result of track and equipment 

failures (except broken rails), and a number of miscellaneous causes such a fires and 

collisions with obstructions other than rail vehicles or vehicle lading. Thus, the percentage 

differences between the systems somewhat overstate the overall impact of train control 

system characteristics on safety.

• Neither the PTC nor the base case analyses include operations during the fallback mode, in 

this case conventional CTC. This mode was omitted from analysis because both train-miles 
55 

and accident risks during fallback operation were assumed to be the same for both cases; 

thus, inclusion would not affect comparisons between analysis cases. However, potential 

availability performance of the three systems was not analyzed and may, in fact, differ 

among the systems and could have a significant effect on comparative safety. 

• The analysis does not fully meet the requirements in 49 CFR Part 236 for a risk analysis of a 

PTC system to show that the system is as safe as or better than an applicable base case. Most 

notably the analysis treats the PTC system as a “black box” with specific capabilities and 

performance characteristics and lacks analyses to demonstrate that the system in fact delivers 

this performance. In addition, more thorough analyses to confirm and refine input 

parameters would be required.
A-1 

Appendix A: Description of Risk Model and Calculations in Worksheet 1 – 

Segment Definitions and Timeout Effects

A.1 Introduction

This appendix is the first of four appendices that fully describe the IDOT risk model in all its 

versions. Appendix A contains a description of the overall model structure, the way the model 

represents railroad operations and infrastructure on the IDOT test corridor, and a detailed 

description of the first of the three Microsoft Excel worksheets that make up the core of the 

model. Appendices B and C provide similar descriptions of Worksheets 2 and 3 of the models. 

Appendix F provides full information of the sources and derivation of numerical inputs to the 

models. The descriptions include details for versions of the model established for NAJPTC, cab 

signal with ATS, and cab signal with ATC. 

A.1.1 Structure of the IDOT Test Corridor Risk Model

The overall structure of the model is illustrated in Figure A.1. 

Figure A.1. Overall Structure of the IDOT Test Corridor Risk Model

The analysis starts with a model Inputs Worksheet that contains lookup tables providing all the 

input data needed by the model, including: 

• Relevant signal system and train performance parameters such as timeout and latency values, 

braking distances for each train type, etc.; 

Worksheet 1

Segment 

Definitions and 

Timeout Effects

Worksheet 2;

Collision Probability 

and Preventability 

Estimates

Worksheet 3

Risk 

Calculations

Summary of 

Results

The three linked worksheets in this box 

are the core of the model and are 

repeated for each Sub-corridor, season 

of the year and operating state. 

Model Inputs Worksheet
A-2 

• Basic infrastructure and traffic data, such as the number of main tracks, posted speeds, signal 

block boundaries, passing siding locations, diamond locations, and average trains per day by 

train type and season; 

• Accident frequency and consequence estimates for each accident scenario; and

• Estimated fraction of accidents in each scenario that would be prevented by the train control 

system being analyzed. 

Concentration of all input data onto one worksheet minimizes the effort involved in setting up 

the model for each analysis case. In most cases, it is only necessary to change selected numbers 

on the Inputs Worksheet. These numbers are then referenced by the other worksheets in the 

model. 

The sequence of Worksheets 1, 2, and 3 accesses the input data to perform the detailed risk 

calculations, taking into account all applicable operating conditions. Because risk depends on 

traffic level and mix and the operating state of the train control system, separate sets of 

worksheets are required for each Sub-corridor, season, and operating state. Operating state 

worksheets are only needed for the NAJPTC system, where there may be significant differences 

in accident frequency or consequences between the normal and timeout operating states. Three 

Sub-corridors have been selected with boundaries at points where rail traffic enters or leaves the 

corridor, and two seasons, summer and “rest of year,” to account for seasonal traffic variations

on the “Bloomington” and “Springfield” Sub-corridors. Figure A.2 illustrates the detailed 

structure of the model developed to account for all the traffic and operating state variants for the 

NAJPTC version. The spatial and temporal divisions of the corridor are described in more detail 

in Section A.1.3. 
A-3 

Figure A.2. Organization of Worksheets 1, 2, and 3 in the Risk Model

As shown in Figure A.2, a total of 26 worksheets are in the NAJPTC risk model in addition to 

the worksheets containing the inputs and summarizing the results. For the versions of the model 

that address cab signal with ATS and cab signal with ATC, there is no separate timeout operating 

state, and the number for worksheets reduces to 13 in addition to the worksheets that summarize 

the inputs and results. 

The specific calculations carried out on each worksheet can be summarized as follows:

Worksheet 1 – Segment Definition and Timeout Effects

This worksheet concentrates on the analysis of the probability that collisions between a PTCequipped train and an unequipped train can be prevented by the PTC system. The scenario 

analyzed is that the unequipped train has passed a stop signal. The violation is detected by PTC, 

which issues a stop command to the equipped train. The location of the unequipped train relative 

to the location of the violation and PTC timeout and latency is the key parameters in estimating 

whether the collision can be prevented or mitigated. The calculation also takes into account train 

braking performance, signal spacing, and track layout. The output is a set of collision 

preventability estimates for different collision and equipped train location scenarios. A full 

description of Worksheet 1 and related analyses follows in this appendix. Worksheet 1 remains 

in the versions of the model used for the cab signal systems, but the results are not used in 

subsequent worksheets, because in those cases, all trains are considered to be equipped with ATS 

or ATC. The results of Worksheet 1 would be used if the models were used to analyze an ATS 

or ATC system where unequipped or differently equipped trains were operated. 

Overall IDOT 

Test Corridor

Joliet

Bloomington

Springfield

Normal, WS 1

Timeout, WS 1

Normal, WS 1

Timeout, WS 1

Normal, WS 1

Timeout, WS 1

Full Year WS 2, 3

Full Year WS 2,3

Summer WS 2, 3

Rest of Year WS 2, 3

Summer WS 2, 3

Rest of Year WS 2, 3

Summer WS 2, 3

Rest of Year WS 2, 3

Rest of Year WS 2, 3

Summer WS 2, 3

S ub-corridor Operating s tate S eason

WS = Worksheet
A-4 

Worksheet 2 – Collision Probability and Preventability

This worksheet calculates the distribution of train-to-train collision accidents between all of the 

possible scenarios for such collisions (different pairings of train types in the collision, head-on 

and rear-end collisions, and passenger and freight trains). Then collision preventability is 

estimated for each scenario by using the results from the calculations on Worksheet 1 for 

equipped/unequipped train collisions. Finally, the collision distributions are combined with 

estimated collision frequencies and preventability estimates to provide estimated collision 

frequency for each collision scenario. The analysis takes into account the variation of collision 

frequency by type of segment, whether it is a passing siding, a signal block adjacent to a siding, 

or neither. The analysis also includes the specific scenarios for collisions at diamond crossings 

where the crossing train (usually operated by another railroad) is always assumed to be 

unequipped. A full description of Worksheet 2 is provided in Appendix B. 

Worksheet 3 – Risk Calculations 

This worksheet allows for the basic risk calculation (risk = frequency × consequences) for each 

accident scenario by using collision frequencies from Worksheet 2 and frequencies for other 

accident scenarios from the Inputs Worksheet. The risk parameters calculated comprise 

estimated injuries, fatalities and property damage, and a total cost parameter calculated by 

assigning standard U.S. Department of Transportation values to injuries and fatalities. For the 

NAJPTC system, the model also takes into account the effects (reduced collision consequences) 

of reducing the speed of passenger trains when in the vicinity of unequipped freight trains. The 

accident scenarios analyzed include all those where PTC might reduce risk, comprising intrusion 

collisions, overspeed derailments, grade crossing collisions, broken rail derailments, and work 

zone intrusions. Results of the calculations are summarized in a results table. A full description 

of Worksheet 3 is provided in Appendix C. 

A.1.2 Train Types and Characteristics

The following presumptions regarding train types and their operation were used in the analysis. 

Train Speeds:

Passenger train: maximum 110 mph 

Freight train: maximum 60 mph 

Train Schedule: 

The schedule comprises the following trips per week: 

• Passenger trains – three round trips daily, 7 days/week over the full length of the IDOT test 

corridor between Mazonia, IL, and Ridgely, IL. All passenger trains are PTC equipped. 
A-5 

• Local freight trains – three round trips/week between Burlington and Ridgely and five round 

trips/week between Burlington, IL, and Mazonia. Seventy-five percent of local freight trains 

are PTC equipped. 

• Through freight trains – three round trips/week year-round between Ridgely and 

Bloomington, IL, and five grain train round trips/week during fall, winter and spring, mostly 

between Bloomington and Ridgely. None of these through freight trains are PTC equipped. 

A.1.3 Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Test Corridor – Sub-Corridors, 

Segments, Seasonal Variations, and Operating States

Accident risk on a rail corridor is primarily a function of key operating conditions, specifically: 

• Traffic density (trains per day);

• Traffic mix, relative numbers of passenger and freight trains, and whether they are equipped 

with train control devices; 

• Speeds of passenger and freight trains; 

• Signal system types, layout (block lengths), and capabilities;

• Number of main tracks (which especially affects traffic density per track and the frequency 

of potentially conflicting movements); and

• Special features that can represent a hazard such as diamond crossings or moveable bridges. 

These operating conditions on a railroad can vary both spatially and temporally. For example, 

traffic density and mix can vary by time of day, day of week, and seasonally. Train speeds 

typically vary along a rail route, depending on local infrastructure features such as curvature, 

junctions, and grades. Other spatial variations include number of running tracks, signal block 

lengths (which can affect the ability of a train to respond to a changed signal indication), and 

traffic mix and density. 

In this risk model, the approach to covering the key temporal and spatial variations in the model 

is to divide the overall operation on the IDOT test corridor into temporal and spatial units within 

which operating parameters are constant, perform the risk calculation for each separately, and 

then are totaled to obtain the overall result. The specific divisions selected to represent the most 

significant variations are as follows:

Sub-corridors

Sub-corridors are defined to capture the most significant spatial traffic variations. Three Subcorridors have been defined: 

• Joliet Sub-corridor – Mazonia (MP 62.60) to the siding at Bunge (MP 88.35); Mazonia is 

considered an end point of the corridor, and the Bunge siding is the origination and 

termination point for grain train trips. 
A-6 

• Bloomington Sub-corridor – Siding at Bunge (MP 88.35) to the Yard at Bloomington, IL 

(MP 124.86); Bloomington represents a point of origination for local freight trains and a 

point at which trains from other lines enter or leave the IDOT test corridor. 

• Springfield Sub-corridor – from the Yard at Bloomington (MP 124.86) to Interlocking at 

Ridgley (MP 180.99); Ridgley is considered an end point of the corridor. 

Seasonal and Other Temporal Variations

The grain trains do not operate during the summer months of July, August, and September. 

Thus, there is a significant change in traffic density and mix between these summer months and 

the rest of the year. Two seasonal periods are represented in the model: 

• A 3-month summer period, without grain trains; and

• A 9-month fall, winter, and spring period with grain trains. 

Although there are day-of-week traffic variations, with selected local and through freight train 

trips operating between 1 and 5 days/week, attempting to perform model runs for each day of the 

week would have made the model excessively complex. Average traffic level and mix are

assumed for all 7 days of the week for estimating collision frequencies, combined with reviews 

of day-by-day operating string charts.

Spatial Variations within Sub-corridors

The most critical issue in this risk analysis is the ability of the NAJPTC and the base case train 

control systems to prevent collision accidents and the influence of NAJPTC communications 

timeout on those risks. In the NAJPTC case, the traffic mix includes both equipped and 

unequipped trains, and the collision scenario most influenced by timeout is when an unequipped 

train fails to stop at a stop signal and is in danger of colliding with an equipped train. In this 

situation, signal block length is a critical parameter in calculating risk, along with timeout and 

latency. Therefore, each Sub-corridor was divided into segments corresponding to signal blocks 

for the risk calculation. The signal blocks are typically between 2 and 3 mi. Grade crossings and 

diamonds are analyzed separately as point hazards. 

Risk associated with a track segment (signal block) depends on the features within and adjacent 

to a signal block. Most notably, accident data and descriptions indicate that the most likely 

location for head-on collision accidents in a single-track signal block adjacent to a passing 

siding, where a “guilty” train exits the siding after failing to stop at the control point signal at the 

end of the passing track. To reflect this type of risk variation in the model, track segments have 

been divided into six types: 

• Monitored sidings (where the passing siding track is track-circuited for train detection);

• Unmonitored sidings that lack track circuits on the siding track. There are two unmonitored 

sidings in the IDOT test corridor; 

• Single-track segments adjacent to a monitored siding (called “CP adjacent (M)” in the model 

table headings);
A-7 

• Single-track segments adjacent to an unmonitored siding (called “CP adjacent (U)” in the 

model table headings);

• Single-track segments that are not adjacent to a siding. These are called plain track segments 

in model table headings; and

• Diamond crossing segments, considered as point hazards (i.e. with no length). 

There are no double-track segments on the IDOT test corridor, but if there were, they would be 

another segment type. 

Operating States

All train control systems have at least two operating states: 

• Normal operation, where all train control functions are working normally; and

• Fallback mode, where there has been a control system failure and the system has been cut out 

on an individual train or over a portion of the line. 

For the NAJPTC system only, there is also a timeout mode, where either a communications 

failure or communications queuing is preventing control messages from reaching a train before

timeout expires, and the system declares a fault condition and initiates braking. There is no 

equivalent to the timeout mode with the cab signal systems; any system failure results in no 

signal from the coded track circuit which is interpreted as a restricted speed command by the onboard system. An on-board failure has the same effect. 

The analysis considers only normal operation and timeout operating states. The fallback mode 

(conventional CTC operations) is assumed to be the same for all analysis cases, both in aggregate 

duration and safety performance, and thus does not affect the risk comparison between the 

NAJPTC system and the base case systems. If there were availability variations between the 

control systems, then the train-miles operated in fallback mode would vary, resulting in a 

significant influence on a safety performance comparison.

A.1.4 Accident Scenarios

The objective of the risk analysis is to evaluate the relative safety performance for the NAJPTC 

system relative to that for the base cases (cab signal system with ATS and cab signal with ATC). 

Thus, the analysis includes all accident scenarios where the frequency or consequences of an 

accident could be reduced by PTC or cab signals. These are termed PTC-relevant accident 

scenarios and are made up of the following: 

• Train-to-train collisions of all kinds, including collisions at diamond crossings with another 

rail line;

• Collisions between an active train and a rail vehicle or vehicle lading that has intruded on the 

track occupied by the active train;

• Overspeed derailments;
A-8 

• Broken rail derailments, where the broken rail can be detected by the train control system;

• Work zone violations; and

• Grade crossing collisions with a highway vehicle, where a crossing warning system 

malfunction detectible by the train control system was a factor in causing the collision.

Illustrations of accident scenarios are provided in Appendix E. A short treatment of accident 

scenarios is provided in the following paragraphs to put the discussions contained in the rest of 

this appendix into context. 

Train-to-Train Collisions

Train-to-train collisions are collisions between two trains, both of which are moving over the 

IDOT test corridor under the control of the signal and train control system. Collisions are most 

commonly caused when one train fails to observe signals and operating authorities or when the 

engineers receive conflicting instructions from the dispatcher. Less commonly, collisions can be 

caused by a failure of on-board equipment such as brakes or in the signal, train control, or 

communications systems.

Sub-scenarios of train-to-train collisions have been established to take into account factors that 

affect either the frequency or consequences of collisions. Those included in the analysis are: 

• Factors affecting collision frequency: 

- Traffic density and mix: The number of trains per day and the distribution between 

passenger trains, PTC-equipped freight trains, and unequipped freight trains. Base 

collision frequency and the distribution between meets and passes are governed by the 

traffic mix and operating pattern. Collision frequencies are estimated for each possible 

combination of train types. 

- Collision frequency variations as a function of route segment type: Collision risk is not 

evenly distributed along the line. A review of historic accident data suggests that on a 

single-track railroad, collision risk is higher at passing sidings and especially the singletrack segments before and after a siding. Appropriate frequency adjustments are applied 

to each segment type. 

• Factors affecting collision consequences: 

- Train types involved in the collision: Consequences are much more serious with 

passenger trains than freight trains, given the numbers of passengers at risk of becoming 

casualties and the high value of passenger cars relative to freight cars and their contents.

- Colliding vehicles in the collision: Whether the collision involves a locomotive hitting 

another locomotive, a locomotive hitting a freight car or a locomotive hitting a passenger 

car. Because of the wide differences in consequences between passenger and freight 

trains, the model calculates consequences separately for each train involved in a collision, 

taking into account the types of colliding vehicles and trains involved. 

- Train speed: Consequences vary substantially with train speed broadly as a function of 

the kinetic energy dissipated in a collision.
A-9 

Diamond collisions are a special case of train-to-train collision, where collision frequency is a 

function of the combined traffic density on both lines. Factors affecting consequences are the 

same as above, except that the chance of a locomotive-to-locomotive collision is assumed to be 

negligible, and all collisions are locomotive to passenger or freight car. 

Intrusion Collisions

Intrusion collisions occur when rail cars or their lading on an adjacent track intrude onto the 

active track and are hit by an active train. There are two subgroups of intrusion collisions: 

• The first is at a connecting switch where a rail vehicle rolls out to foul the main line. This can 

be due to an improperly secured vehicle, a vehicle released by vandals, misjudged switching 

movements on the connecting track, and similar factors.

• The second occurs away from connecting switches, in which a derailed vehicle or a shifted 

load on an adjacent track fouls the main line. 

These subgroups are analyzed separately as they differ in frequency, consequences and in 

potential preventability by the PTC or base case train control systems.

Overspeed Derailments

PTC can enforce permanent and temporary civil speed limits, including maximum speed through 

turnouts, for example, when entering a passing siding instead of taking the main track.

Broken Rail Derailments

Broken rail can be detected by the train control system. Conventional track circuits can detect a 

completely broken rail, provided that the signal block is unoccupied by a train, thus warning an 

approaching train by changing the signal controlling entry to the block to red and alerting an 

approaching train through the PTC system, where available. Directional coded track circuits, as 

used for the UP cab signal and NEC ATC systems, can warn an approaching train of a broken 

rail, even if the train already has entered the signal block. 

Work Zone Violations 

A work zone violation occurs when a train enters a work zone without authorization from the 

supervisor responsible for activities in the work zone or passes through a zone at excessive 

speed. Work zone locations and speed restrictions may be entered into the PTC server and 

enforced by PTC. PTC may also monitor the movements of on-track work equipment that does 

not normally shunt track circuits. 

Grade Crossing Collisions

Grade crossing collisions are defined to be collisions with a highway vehicle at a grade crossing 

that are reportable to FRA as a train accident. A subset of grade crossing collisions between a 

train and a highway vehicle are caused by a failure of the crossing warning system (e.g. gates, 
A-10

lights, or bells). PTC can warn the train if the crossing warning system fails to operate correctly 

and allow that train to initiate failed crossing procedures. Even if the first train to detect the 

malfunctioning crossing system cannot stop before the crossing, PTC will alert the dispatcher to 

notify subsequent trains and send a maintainer to inspect the crossing. Note that this definition 

does not include the larger number of grade crossing collisions that do not result in damage to 

the train exceeding FRA’s train accident reporting threshold. These grade crossing collisions as 

well as casualties and damage to highway vehicles and their occupants are not included in this 

analysis.
A-11

A.2 Description of Calculations in Worksheet 1 – Segment 

Definitions and Timeout Effects

As described in the previous section, Worksheet 1 of the risk model estimates the probability that 

collisions between equipped and unequipped trains can be prevented or mitigated. Estimating 

these probabilities involves assembling segment data (lengths, types, and speeds) and the 

performance results of collision preventability calculations for collisions between equipped and 

unequipped trains based on stopping distances and timeout. This section will describe analysis 

steps and key factors associated with these processes.

A.2.1 Overview of Calculations

Worksheet 1 is exclusively concerned with estimating collision probabilities in the scenarios that 

involve a collision between an equipped train and an unequipped train. Because authority 

violations by the equipped train will almost always be prevented by PTC, these scenarios involve 

an authority violation by an unequipped train, followed by a head-on, side, or rear-end collision. 

Collisions at diamonds are a special case of collisions between equipped and unequipped trains. 

Trains crossing the IDOT test corridor at diamonds are assumed to be unequipped. 

Worksheet 1 performs the calculations for one Sub-corridor of the IDOT test corridor and for 

one operating state of the train control system (normal or in timeout). Some key input 

parameters are also introduced into the analysis on Worksheet 1, specifically the braking 

performance of passenger and freight trains, and the lengths and characteristics of route 

segments. 

The specific calculations performed on the spreadsheet are illustrated in the block diagram 

Figure A.3 and described in subsequent paragraphs. 
A-12

Figure A.3. Block Diagram Illustrating Calculations Performed in Worksheet 1

Step 1: Calculate stopping distances 

Stopping distances are calculated from applicable braking formulas for freight and 

passenger trains. This calculation is performed in Table 1.1 of the Microsoft 

Excel worksheet and described in detail in Section A.2.2 below. 

Step 2: Define latency or timeout value, as applicable 

This is simply an input to the analysis and is defined for a specific analysis case 

and operating state of the train control system. In the normal operating state, the 

input is the latency expected for the train control system when operating normally 

(usually 10 s for NAJPTC). In the timeout operating state, the input is the timeout 

setting for the train control system for the specific analysis case being analyzed. 

For the cab signal with ATS/cab signal with ATC cases, the corresponding input 

is the penalty braking response time, usually 8 s. This is the time allowed for the 

engineer to acknowledge a more restrictive cab signal aspect and forestall an 

automatic brake application by the ATS/ATC. These inputs are included in the 

input data to Table 1.1 in the Microsoft Excel worksheet. 

Step 3: Define segment type, length, speeds, etc.

These data are derived from the track information provided on track charts, 

timetables, and documents prepared for the NAJPTC project office. A master set 

of data (provided in Appendix D) has been prepared from these sources and used 

to compile the segment data listed in Table 1.2 of the Microsoft Excel worksheet. 

In all cases, segments are simply signal blocks plus point segments for at-grade 

rail crossings (diamonds). 
A-13

The data comprise: 

• The beginning and end points (milepost locations) of each signal block 

segment and the calculation of the length of each segment from the milepost 

locations. As far as possible, the track charts were reviewed to check for 

inconsistencies between milepost locations and actual distances. 

• Segment type, using the designations defined in Section A.1.3. 

• Posted speeds for all train types, including high-speed trains, permitted to 

travel at up to 110 mph. 

• Representative speeds for all train types, derived as discussed in Section 

A.2.2. The list contains two speeds for high-speed trains, the normal speed 

used in most of the analysis and a reduced speed of 79 mph used to calculate 

collision consequences for collisions between a passenger train and an 

unequipped freight train. This reflects the operating requirement to restricting 

passenger train speeds when in the vicinity of an unequipped freight train. 

Step 4: Calculate zone lengths A, B1, and B2 

The lengths are calculated from the information assembled in Steps 1, 2, and 3. 

The zones are portions of the route segment where an equipped train may be 

located at the time an unequipped train violates its authority. This calculation is 

performed in Table 1.3 of the Microsoft Excel worksheet. The basis for and the 

details of this calculation are described in Section A.2.2 below. 

Step 5: Combine like segments

The combined lengths of similar segments (same type and same passenger and 

freight train speeds) are calculated in Tables 1.4 and 1.5 of the Microsoft Excel 

worksheet. Table 1.4 is an intermediate step in the calculations to avoid 

excessively complex cell formulas. The results tabulated in Table 1.5 of the 

worksheet give the aggregate length of the segments that fall into each train speed 

and segment type category. Separate totals are calculated for each train type.

Step 6: Calculate estimate of collision avoidance or mitigation probabilities 

These are derived from the zone lengths by segment type and for passenger and 

freight trains. These calculations are performed in Tables 1.6a to 1.6f for each 

type of segment, including diamond crossings. The calculation of the collision 

avoidance and mitigation probabilities is performed for each segment and train 

type and takes into account: 

• The zone lengths derived in Step 4 and shown in Table 1.3 of Worksheet 1. 

• The aggregate length of segments of each type in the Sub-corridor being 

analyzed.

• An estimate of the probability that a train will have entered the now-occupied 

signal block before or after the violation by the unequipped train. 
A-14

• An estimate of the risk increment as a result of overreliance on the PTC in-cab 

display. This occurs in Zone C when the violation takes place before the train 

has passed the signal controlling entry to the now-occupied signal block. 

There is a risk that the train crew will rely on a display showing all-clear 

(because of latency or timeout) and fail to respond to a wayside signal 

(controlled by track circuits) that will show a stop aspect approximately 3 s 

after the violation. Cab signal systems that rely on coded track circuits do not 

have an equivalent effect because of the minimal lag between the wayside and 

cab signal displays.

The results from the calculations are transferred to Worksheet 2 for the next stage 

in the analysis. 

Step 2 (Define Latency or Timeout Value) and Step 3 (Define Segment Type, Length, Speeds, 

etc.) are simply input data and therefore do not involve calculations. Step 1 (Calculate Stopping 

Distances) and Step 4 (Calculate Zone Lengths A, B1, and B2) depend critically on train speed, a 

key model input. The following section will detail how speed is considered in these two steps. 

How this information is brought into the final product of Worksheet 1, namely the estimates of 

collision avoidance and mitigation probabilities, will be addressed in Section A3. 

A.2.2 Consideration of Speed in the Model

The basic source of information for train speed is the posted train speed as shown on applicable 

timetables and track charts for the IDOT test corridor. This line has very few curves, almost 

none of which are severe enough to require a permanent speed restriction or slow order. 

Likewise, no steep grades significantly affect the average speed of either freight or passenger 

trains over a full route segment. The only significant permanent speed restrictions in the corridor 

are through the city of Burlington, IL, which has multiple connections to yards and sidings and 

several grade crossings and a 40-mph speed limit at all at-grade rail crossings (diamonds). 

Braking and acceleration areas before and after passenger train stations and industry tracks and 

sidings being visited by freight trains are ignored. Because of the limited number of speed 

restrictions and the lack of significant curves and grades, both passenger and freight trains are 

expected to operate at or near posted speed over most of the IDOT test corridor. 

Representative Speeds

As described earlier, the corridor is divided up into segments. The train speeds assigned to each 

route segment have been termed Representative Speeds. A value for Representative Speed is 

estimated for passenger and freight trains for each route segment (signal block), and is intended 

to be a reasonable common sense estimate of actual train speeds. The values of Representative 

Speeds used are constrained to a limited set of four values for passenger trains and three values 

for freight trains; accident consequences are only estimated for these specific values for each 

accident scenario. Table A.1 below gives the Representative Speeds selected to best cover the 

range of actual speeds in the corridor. 
A-15

Table A.1. Representative Speeds Used in the NAJPTC Risk Calculation 

Representative Speeds for 

Passenger Trains (mph)

Representative Speeds for 

Freight Trains (mph)

40 25

60 40

79 50

105

The procedures for estimating representative speeds for passenger and freight trains within the 

model are as follows:

Passenger trains: 

• For route segments where the present posted speed is 79 mph and where passenger trains 

would be permitted to travel at up to 110 mph with NAJPTC or either of the base case 

systems and the same speed is permitted in adjacent route segments:

- Representative speed will be 79 mph for train-to-train collisions with unequipped trains 

in the PTC case because of the required speed reduction in the vicinity of unequipped 

trains. Passenger trains are expected to travel at or near the posted speed when possible, 

and with the low traffic and recent track upgrades, trains will rarely operate at reduced 

speed because of traffic conditions or slow orders. 

- Representative speed will be 105 mph for all other accident scenarios for PTC-equipped 

trains and for all accidents (including train-to-train collisions) for the base case cab signal 

systems.

• For route segments where passenger trains have to enter or leave the segment at a reduced 

speed, normally 30–40 mph (e.g., at a diamond), an estimate of the average speed through the 

segment is used, assuming the train is braking as it approaches the speed restricted point or 

accelerating away from the restriction. The estimated speeds will be as follows: 

- Representative speed will be 60 mph for passenger trains with initial speeds of 79 mph. 

- Representative speed will be 79 mph for passenger trains with initial speeds of 105 mph. 

• For speed-restricted route segments, representative speed will be the nearest value below the 

actual posted speeds. 

Freight trains: 

• For route segments where the posted speed for freight trains is 60 mph and the same speed is 

permitted in adjacent route segments, representative speed will be 50 mph. The lower speed 

is because freight trains may be more affected by the modest grades on this route than 

passenger trains; some trains may have speed-restricted cars in the consist, and in any case, 

railroads often limit freight trains speeds to 50 or 55 mph to save fuel and wear and tear, 

regardless of civil speed limits.
A-16

• For route segments where freight trains enter or leave the route segment at reduced speed, a 

representative speed of 40 mph is used. 

• For all other segments, the representative speed will be the nearest value below the actual 

posted speeds. 

These conventions are expected to cover all route segments in the IDOT test corridor and 

operations under each of the train control systems being analyzed. 

Calculation of Stopping Distances

The stopping distances are derived simply from applicable stopping distance formulas for 

passenger and freight trains. The formulas discussed in this section are those to bring the train to 

a stop from the moment that an unequipped train violated its movement authority, such as by 

passing a stop signal, including adding (at this stage in the calculation) the “free-running” 

distance traveled by the train during timeout, latency and/or allowances in the on-board system 

for engineer response. 

Passenger trains: 

The analysis uses a standard formula for Amtrak trains provided by Amtrak and used for all 

braking distance calculations for the NAJPTC project. The formulas are of the form: 

Braking distance in feet from speed V to stop on level track is given by: 

[{(A × V2

) + (B × V)} × (safety factor)] + [C × V × 1.467] ........................................................ (1)

where: 

V is train speed in miles per hour. 

A is a coefficient representing the average braking effort and, therefore, 

deceleration of the train, and depends on consist makeup and the braking 

performance of the cars in the consist.

B is a coefficient representing the time taken for the braking system to build up to 

full effort after braking is initiated by the engineer and also some nonlinearity’s in 

brake system performance. The value of B also depends on the consist and car 

brake performance specification.

The safety factor is a multiplier on the braking distance to allow for low rail 

adhesion, defective brakes, very cold weather, and similar factors. A value of 

1.25 for the factor is used. 

C is a delay in seconds in initiating braking caused by either timeout (with 

NAJPTC) or with cab signal systems, the delay between the locomotive detecting 

a more restrictive signal aspect and the initiation of penalty braking.

The factor 1.467 converts speed in miles per hour into feet per second. 
A-17

Equation 1 accounts for grade compensation within the coefficients. The coefficients used in the 

calculations have been established in previous studies and are chosen on the basis of the type of 

train being considered. All passenger traffic on the test corridor has been categorized by Amtrak 

as described in Table A.2. Once a particular passenger train is “assigned,” a set of coefficients 

for use in Equation 1 is identified.

Table A.2. Categories Used to Identify Passenger Trains Established by Amtrak

Type Subtype Description

B 

B1

A maximum of 2 P-40 or P-42 engines and not less than 2 and nor more 

than 14 Amfleet/Horizon cars in the consist. No nonpassenger carrying or 

Superliner cars are permitted.

B2

A maximum of 1 P-40 or P-42 engine and 14 cars or fewer with no more 

than 1 nonpassenger carrying car for each Amfleet/Horizon car in the 

consist. No more than 2 of the nonpassenger carrying cars may be MHC 

cars (Series 1400-1569), and no Superliner cars are permitted.

B3

A maximum of 1 P-40 or P-42 engine, and 14 cars or less with no more 

than 2 RoadRailer vans for each Amfleet/Horizon car in the consist. No 

MHC cars, baggage cars, or Superliner cars permitted.

C†

C1

A maximum of 2 P-40 or P-42 engines and 14 cars or fewer with a 

minimum of 3 Amfleet, Horizon, or Superliner cars. A maximum of 11 

nonpassenger carrying cars are permitted.

C2

A maximum of 3 P-40 or P-42 engines and 15–30 cars with a minimum of 

7 Amfleet/Horizon or 9 Superliner cars. Not more than 1 baggage car is 

permitted. No MHC cars are permitted. The remaining cars in the consist 

may be express cars, including RoadRailers. 

D – All trains not fitting the above categories, with speed is limited to 90 mph. †

Train Type “C” has a maximum speed of 90 mph. Superliners are currently qualified to go up to 90 mph, but it is Amtrak’s 

belief that on a Class 6 track with a qualified train control system, Superliners can be qualified to go up to 110 mph. This could 

result in Type “C” trains under Subtype C1 being qualified to operate up to 110 mph, if all nonpassenger carrying cars are MHC 

and/or baggage cars.

All passenger trains considered in this analysis are taken to be Train Type “B” and the 

appropriate coefficients are applied to Equation 1. 

Freight trains: 

The freight train braking distance formula is a version of the Davis formula. The braking 

distance to a stop from speed V on level track is given by: 

[1.467 × V × (brake application time)] +

[P × (train weight in pounds (lbs)) × V2 /(braking force)] + [C × V × 1.467] .................. (2)

where:

V is train speed in miles per hour. 
A-18

Brake application time (seconds) is 0.1 times the number of cars in the consist. 

P is a coefficient equal to 0.035 for typical freight trains. 

Braking force is a function of the number and types of cars in the consist and is expressed 

in pounds. 

C is a delay, in seconds, in initiating braking. For NAJPTC, this is a function of timeout

or latency. In cab signal systems, the delay is between the locomotive detecting a more 

restrictive signal aspect and the initiation of penalty braking. 

1.467 is the multiplier converting speed in miles per hour to feet per second. 

Equation 2 assumes very limited braking capabilities (worst case margin) and is effective for a 

very nominal grade. 

The coefficients used for braking distance calculations are summarized below:

Table A.3. Values Used in Braking Distance Calculations

Train Type Coefficients Values

Passenger

Coefficient A 0.666

Coefficient B 0

Safety factor 1.25

Coefficient C Latency or timeout in seconds

Freight

Coefficient P 0.035

Application time 0.1 × number of cars in train

Train weight 37,600,000 lbs

Brake force 779,683

Coefficient C Timeout or latency in seconds
A-19

A.3 Calculation of Timeout Effects on Collision Risk

The purpose of establishing values for all the parameters discussed to this point is to use them in 

the consideration of specific collisions. Accident scenarios have been previously discussed in 

Section A.1.4. Specific accidents will now be addressed, and the determination of “risk zones” 

and how they pertain to accidents will be described. This discussion applies to the NAJPTC 

analysis case only. Because all trains are assumed to be equipped with both base case systems—

cab signals with ATS and cab signals with ATC—these calculations are not applicable. 

However, if either of the base case systems were to be implemented with unequipped or 

differently equipped trains, then similar calculations would be required. 

A.3.1 Risk Zones

One of the accident scenarios of most concern is the one in which a PTC-unequipped train on a 

controlled siding meets a PTC-equipped train on the main line. This is not the only accident 

scenario that is critical to this analysis. Collisions with unattended vehicles, incidents at grade 

crossings, and work zone invasions are also situations that merit consideration; however, these 

scenarios are best dealt with when handling risk calculations performed in Worksheet 3 and will 

be addressed in Appendix C. The meeting of trains at diamond crossings is also of interest to 

this analysis and is addressed later in this section. 

The scenario selected for this description is one in which a PTC-unequipped train passes a red 

signal at danger (often referred to as “signal pass at danger” or SPAD) at a controlled siding and 

enters the main track signal block previously released to an approaching equipped train. This 

scenario is described on pages E-15 and E-16 of Appendix E. Page E-15 illustrates the situation 

where an equipped train leaves a monitored siding, passing a signal at danger when the equipped 

train traveling in the opposite direction has not entered the signal block between the two trains. 

Page E-16 shows the same scenario where the equipped train already has entered the signal block 

at the time of the violation by the unequipped train. In either case, a head-on collision may result 

if the equipped train cannot stop in time. The two Sub-scenarios are illustrated in Figure A.4. 
A-20

(a) Equipped Train Approaching Intermediate Signal at Time of SPAD

(b) Equipped Train between Intermediate and Control Point Signal at Time of SPAD

Figure A.4. Illustrations of Scenarios Involving PTC-Unequipped Train Passing Signal to 

Enter Main Line to Meet PTC-Equipped Train

This pair of Sub-scenarios is a proxy for a group of several scenarios described in Appendix E

that involve a collision between an equipped train and an unequipped train on the main running 

tracks or at a passing siding. These include: 

• Unequipped train ignores block signal on main line as PTC-equipped train leaves 

uncontrolled siding within block (page E-19 of Appendix E);

• Unequipped train leaves uncontrolled siding within block onto main track in path of 

approaching PTC-equipped train (pages E-13 and E-14 of Appendix E); and

• Collision during overtaking or passing move at a controlled siding, where an unequipped 

train leaves the controlled siding, ignoring a red signal into the path of an equipped train, 

leading to a side or a rear-end collision as in the Chase, MD, scenario (pages E-28 and E-29 

in Appendix E).

Scenarios involving an unattended car or cut of cars rolling out of a siding into the path of an 

equipped train are considered part of a separate scenario and are discussed in Section A.1.4 with 

other accident scenarios.

The rationale for combining these scenarios and taking the scenarios shown in Figure A.4 as a 

proxy for the group is as follows: 

PTC

Intermediate 

S ignal

CP S ignal

SPAD

Unequipped

PTC

Intermediate 

S ignal

CP S ignal

SPAD

Unequipped
A-21

• Almost all encounters between trains on the IDOT test corridor meet where trains traveling at

opposite directions meet at a controlled passing siding. Because of the sparse traffic 

operating on single track and the specific scheduling shown in the string charts, relatively 

few overtaking moves take place (that could lead to the scenarios on pages E-28 and E-29 or 

of trains leaving an industrial siding) when another train is nearby. This means that the 

scenarios on pages E-15 and E-16 involving trains traveling in opposite directions are more 

likely to occur on this corridor than the other scenarios.

• The logic of whether the PTC system can prevent or mitigate a collision is similar in all 

scenarios. Although there will be detailed differences in accident preventability, these are 

thought to be not great enough to seriously distort the end result. 

• The relative likelihood of head-on, rear-end, and side collisions and differences in 

consequences between head-on and side or rear-end collisions are still represented in the 

model in the analyses in Worksheet 2. 

In either Sub-scenario shown in Figure A.4, the presumption is that the stop signal violation by 

the unequipped train is detected, either by a switch monitor (due to “run through” of the switch 

that is not aligned for the movement of the guilty train) or by the track circuit of the next block. 

This information is transmitted to the PTC server, which generates a command to the equipped 

train to stop. This command is then transmitted to the train; the manner in which the violation is 

detected and the stop command is transmitted to the equipped train is shown in Figure A.5. 

Figure A.5. NAJPTC Communications Links

Intermediate 

S ignal

CP S ignal

SPAD

Unequipped

C ommunications 

Network

NAJ PTC 

S erver

Dis patc hers 

Des k

C AD S ys tem

S witc h, s ignal, 

trac k c ircuit 

s tatus from WIUs

L oc ation, 

S peed, 

Direc tion

PTC

Movement 

Authorities
A-22

After a signal violation by the unequipped train, the NAJPTC system underwent the following 

sequence of events:

• The signal violation is detected by switch position sensors and, if the PTC-equipped train has 

not passed the intermediate signal (to the left of the diagram Figure A.5), by the track circuit 

in the signal block between the trains. 

• The sensor information is transmitted to the WIUs at the Control Point signal and then 

transmitted by digital radio to the NAJPTC server.

• The intermediate signal turns from all clear (green) to stop (red), because the violating train 

occupies the next block. If the PTC-equipped train has passed the intermediate signal, the 

block is already occupied, and the intermediate signal is behind the equipped train and does 

not play any part in subsequent events. 

• The NAJPTC processor in the server interprets the sensor data, determines that the 

unequipped train has passed a stop signal, and issues a message to the equipped train, 

cancelling its previous authority and requiring an immediate stop.

• The equipped train starts to brake in response to the stop command to prevent or mitigate the 

collision.

• The unequipped train that passed the red signal may continue to travel through the block, 

getting closer to the approaching PTC-equipped train, or the crew may become aware of the 

error and stop. In this analysis, the unequipped train is assumed to continue moving at 15 

mph, and collision points are calculated taking into account the distance traveled at this 

speed.

The time interval between the original signal violation and the receipt of the stop command by 

the equipped train is the sum of the processing time at each stage, in the WIUs, the radio 

transmitters and receivers, processing time at the central server and processing time on the 

equipped locomotive. If the PTC system is working normally, this time is called latency and 

may include radio transmission delays as a result of message queuing or congestion of the radio 

channels.

 

If the PTC system is in timeout due to a communications failure or overload, the message is 

interrupted at some point in the process and does not reach the equipped train. The equipped 

train continues running under the previous authority until the timeout expires and the brakes are 

applied. The response of the equipped train depends on timeout status and its location when the 

signal violation takes place. 

For the purposes of risk calculations, a series of risk zones are defined for the position of the 

equipped or “innocent” train at the time of the signal violation by the guilty (unequipped) train. 

An illustration of these risk zones is provided on Figure A.6. In this case, Point Z corresponds to 

the signal at the switch that is shown as the green signal in Figure A.4. 
A-23

Figure A.6. Risk Zones for Equipped Train Approaching a Point of Conflict

The ability of the equipped train to stop before colliding with the violating train depends on its 

risk zone location at the time of violation and timeout status.

The zones for the location of the equipped train at the time of the violation are as follows: 

Risk Zone A1, between Points Y and Z: equipped train is unable to stop or reduce speed 

significantly before reaching the point of conflict, which lies to the left of Point Z The 

calculation of the length of this and the other risk zones includes an estimate of the 

distance traveled by the guilty train after passing the signal at the end of the siding.

Risk Zone A2, between Points X and Y: equipped train can reduce speed sufficiently to 

reduce the consequences of a collision but is unable to stop before reaching the point of 

conflict. A discussion of what speed reduction is needed to reduce consequences 

significantly is provided later in this section.

Risk Zone B, between Points W and X: equipped train has passed the intermediate signal 

at Point W but receives a warning or the NAJPTC timeout expires and is able to stop 

before the point of conflict. 

Note that Figure A.6 illustrates the situation where Points X and Y are located between Point W 

(location of intermediate signal) and Point Z. However, the lengths of Zones A1 and A2 depend 

on train speed, latency, timeout, and braking performance. Therefore, it is possible for the length 

of either Zone A1 or Zones A1 + A2 to exceed the distance between Points W and Z. In this 

case, there is no Zone B, and the end of either Zone A1 or Zone A2 remote from Point Z is 

always at Point W. Practically, this situation typically arises at higher speeds and when the 

NAJPTC system is in timeout, because distances between signals are typically longer than the 

braking distance from maximum posted speed. However, with timeout exceeding 120 s and a 

speed of 79 mph, the distance traveled during 50 percent of the timeout is on the order of 7,000 

feet, which when added to braking distance often exceeds signal block length. 

Risk Zone C, before the intermediate signal at Point W: if the equipped train is in this 

zone at the time of the signal violation by the unequipped train, the engineer can see the 

P oint W

Intermediate 

S ignal

Zone C Zone B Zone A2 Zone A1 CP S ignal

P oint X P oint Y P oint Z 
A-24

intermediate signal change to the “approach” or “stop” aspect. An alert engineer can

initiate braking on the basis of the signal indication alone, regardless of train control 

system operating state. The exception might be when the equipped train is very close to 

the intermediate signal so that the engineer may miss the signal flip because of a 

moment’s inattention. Thus, very few collisions happen when the equipped train in Zone 

C is the reference case (CTC): an accident in this scenario requires a double failure—the 

original signal violation and a second violation when the innocent train in Zone C fails to 

respond to the wayside signal indication. Such a double failure may be more likely in the 

case of a PTC-equipped train in timeout or during latency. In this case, the signal aspect 

will change at the time of the violation, but the amended authority via the PTC system 

will be delayed by latency or timeout. In this situation, there is the possibility that PTC 

will increase the number of accidents over the CTC reference case because the crew may 

be more likely to miss or discount the line side signal indication. 

Speeds for Reduced Consequences

The definition of risk zones is based, in part, on the concept of reduced consequences of 

incidents. This section addresses how speed reduction is used in the determination of reduced 

consequences and, therefore, the lengths of risk zones. 

Passenger trains: 

It is very difficult to identify and quantify the risk factors that affect accident severity from 

analysis of accident data in passenger train collision accidents, primarily because there are very 

few collision accidents overall—approximately four to six accidents per year involving fewer 

than 10 individual passenger trains of all types, including cab car-led trains. This low number 

and the variability in consist type and size mean that it is not possible to carry out a meaningful 

analysis of historic accident data to obtain a speed versus severity characteristic. Another 

difficulty is that a very small number of catastrophic accidents are responsible for the majority of 

fatalities. These accidents usually involve the initial collision and an aggravating factor, such as 

a fire or a second collision with another train that may not be influenced by initial train speeds.

Train collision modeling can shed some light on the levels of damage and casualties in collisions. 

Straightforward momentum and energy calculations indicate that the energy dissipated in a 

collision, and the resulting damage is a function of the square of the closing speed. However, 

trains are not simple rigid bodies and can crush, buckle or override so that the energy calculation 

is only a rough guide to severity. However, a substantial body of collision analyses and test 

results is available that, when combined with information from actual collision accidents, point 

the way to some general conclusions: 

• Casualties are minimized when trains stay upright and in-line in a collision but rapidly 

increase when train buckle or override. 

• Both analysis and experience suggest that in head-end collisions with locomotive hauled 

passenger trains (the predominant collision type on the IDOT test corridor) buckling rather 

than override can be expected and that buckling is initiated at closing speed of between 

approximately 45 and 60 mph, depending on train length and other local factors. Below this 

speed, trains tend to stay upright and in-line and are generally less exposed to high-
A-25

consequence situations such as secondary collisions with a train on an adjacent track or 

rupture of a locomotive fuel tank. 

• In a collision between a locomotive and a passenger car, override can be expected at speeds 

more than approximately 30 mph, with the lighter passenger car riding up and over the 

locomotive, resulting in massive damage to the struck passenger car. The exact speed at 

which override occurs depends on consist length, mass and mass distribution, and other local 

factors. This scenario was amply demonstrated by recent collision tests at Pueblo, CO, as 

well as confirmed by collision and crush analyses. In the IDOT test corridor, locomotive to 

passenger car collisions take place only when a passenger train is rear-ended by another train 

or locomotive. This is expected to be a rare occurrence, given the traffic patterns on the 

IDOT test corridor. 

Thus, more severe consequence for passenger trains can be expected with:

• Override in locomotive to passenger car collisions at above approximately 30 mph; and

• Buckling in locomotive-to-locomotive collisions at speeds approximately 45–60 mph (most 

common scenario on the IDOT test corridor).

Note that these conclusions apply to passenger equipment with conventional car body structures 

and couplers. Equipment with crushable crash energy management (CEM) structures will 

behave in a very different way in collisions, with the train staying upright and in-line at 

significantly higher speeds. However, there are no current plans to use passenger cars with CEM 

structures on this corridor, and the analysis assumes conventional carbody structures.

Overall this discussion suggests that the threshold for reduced consequences should be between 

45 and 60 mph, below which locomotive-led passenger trains in head-on collisions will stay in 

line. A speed of 60 mph has been selected, bearing in mind that the reduced consequence zone 

(Zone A2 in Figure A.6) covers all speeds from 60 mph to stop. 

Freight trains: 

Review of a previous analysis of freight train accidents shows that about 57 percent of main-line 

collision accidents do not result in derailment of one or more freight cars. A breakdown by 

speed of these accidents is not available, but it seems reasonable to assume that they involve 

lower speeds and shorter trains. Also, there is a steady increase in the number of cars derailed by 

speed in accidents where one or more freight cars are derailed, with no clear threshold of sharply 

increased consequences at a specific speed, as shown below.

Table A.4. Average Number of Derailed Cars for Particular Speed Ranges

Speed Range 0–25 mph 26–40 mph Over 40 mph

Average number of 

cars derailed 8 11 14 
A-26

Most likely there is so much variability in freight train consists—length of train, length of 

individual cars, whether cars are loaded or empty, and so on—that there is no specific speed at

which different accident consequences come to the fore.

The predominant derailment mode of freight trains is buckling, and given the strength and 

rigidity of typical freight locomotive structures, it is likely that the bulk of collision energy is 

dissipated in car derailment and buckling. No further information is readily available without 

carrying out further detailed analysis of the FRA database. Given this rather sketchy 

information, it is only possible to make an arbitrary decision regarding a speed threshold for 

reduced consequences in freight train collisions of 35 mph. At this speed it is likely that most 

collisions result in the derailment and buckling of several cars in the train.

Calculation of Zone Length

Using the arguments detailed above, risk zone lengths are calculated as follows:

Risk Zone A1 (between Points Y and Z in Figure A.6):

If within Zone A1, the equipped train is unable to stop or significantly reduce speed before 

reaching the point of conflict. 

Length of zone is estimated by calculating the braking distance to stop as derived from the above 

formulas for the specific train type, representative speed in the signal block, train control system 

and timeout status, and subtracting the distance needed to brake from 80 percent of the 

representative speed for the segment for each applicable train type. Then the distance traveled 

by the guilty unequipped train in the time needed for the PTC-equipped train to reduce speed to 

60 mph is added to the braking distance to calculate the total distance between Points Y and Z (at

the switch at the siding exit). 

For both passenger and freight trains, the brakes are assumed to be fully applied when the train 

has slowed to 60 mph for passenger trains or 35 mph for freight trains, and that the train will 

continue to slow down at constant retardation to a stop. With constant retardation, the distance 

to stop from of the initial speed is given by the V2 term in both the freight and passenger 

formulas.

Thus the formulas for the length of Zone A1 are: 

Passenger Trains: 

[Distance to stop from the representative speed V per Equation 1)] – 

[A × 602] + [Distance traveled by guilty unequipped train in the 

time needed to reduce speed to 60 mph] ............................................................... (3)

This formula reflects the convention discussed earlier in this section, where reduced 

consequences apply when speed is reduced to 60 mph or below. If initial speed is below 60 mph, 

then consequences are unchanged through Zones A1 and A2, and there is no difference in 

consequences between the zones. 
A-27

Freight Trains:

[Distance to stop from the representative speed V per Equation 2] – 

[P × (train weight in lbs) × 352 / (braking force)] + [distance traveled

by guilty unequipped train in the time needed to reduce speed to 60 mph] ......... (4)

This formula reflects the convention discussed earlier in this section, where reduced 

consequences apply when speed has been reduced to 35 mph. As with passenger trains, if initial 

speed is below 35 mph, no difference is found on consequences between Zones A1 and A2. 

Equations 3 and 4 include a term to represent the distance traveled by the guilty train before the 

collision, extending the length of Zones A1 and A2. The distances traveled by the slow-moving 

guilty trains (assumed to be traveling at 15 mph) in the times taken for the equipped (innocent) 

train to reduce speed or to come to a stop in Zones A1 and A2, respectively. The total length of 

Zones A1 and A2 is thus the sum of the distance traveled by the innocent train while braking 

(including free running during latency or timeout) and the distances traveled by the guilty train. 

As mentioned above, it is possible that with longer timeout periods and higher speeds that the 

length of Zone A1, as calculated above, will exceed the total length of the signal block between 

Points W and Z. In this case, the entire signal block is in Zone A1, indicating that a collision 

following a SPAD violation by the unequipped train cannot be prevented or mitigated, and the 

lengths of Zones A2 and B are zero. 

Risk Zone A2 (between Points X and Y in Figure A.6):

If within this zone, the equipped train can slow sufficiently to mitigate the consequences of a 

collision, but the collision cannot be prevented. The length of this zone in every case is the 

distance to slow from 60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trains to a full stop 

with full service braking. Zone lengths are given by the following formulas, applicable to all 

control systems and control system states. Risk Zone A2 lengths are independent of whether the 

NAJPTC system is in timeout. 

Passenger Trains: 

Zone A2 = [A × 602

] + [distance traveled by guilty train

while equipped train stops] ................................................................. (5)

Freight Trains: 

Zone A2 = [P × (train weight in lbs) × 352 / (braking force)] + 

[distance traveled by guilty train while equipped train stops] ............ (6)

As with Zone A1, it is possible that the combined length of Zone A1 + Zone A2 is greater than 

the block length. In this case, the length of Zone B, between Point X and Point W in Figure A.6

is zero. Also, the combined lengths of Zones A1 and A2 cannot exceed the block length. If the 

sum of A1 and A2 calculated from the formulas above exceeds block length, but Zone A1 is less 

than the block length, then the length of Zone A2 is given by: 

Length of Zone A2 = block length – length of Zone A1 ...................................... (7)
A-28

Risk Zone B (between Points X and W in Figure A.6):

If the equipped train is within this zone, it can stop before the point of conflict. Zone B exists 

only if the total length of Zones A1 and A2 is less than the signal block length, and its length is 

given by the formula: 

Length Zone B = signal block length – 

 (length of Zone A1 + length of Zone A2) ................................. (8)

If the length so calculated is less that zero, then the length of Zone B is zero. 

Risk Zone C (Before Point W in Figure A.6):

As discussed above, if the train is in Zone C and has not passed the wayside signal at point “W,” 

the engineer will, in almost every case, respond to the changing aspect of the signal at point “W” 

and may be able to prevent or mitigate the collision independently of PTC state. In the reference 

(CTC) case, there will be a low but finite probability that the engineer will fail to respond to the 

point “W” signal. With NAJPTC in normal mode, and with the cab signal systems, the in-cab 

system will be able to respond after the latency delay after the signal aspect change. Therefore, 

there is a chance of a “PTC-caused” collision, where overreliance on PTC resulted in a missed 

wayside signal and a collision.

The situation when the NAJPTC system is in timeout is similar to latency, except that the train 

will potentially travel a greater distance between when the line side signal changes aspect in 

response to the signal violation by the guilty train and when the on-board PTC system initiates 

braking after timeout has expired. Thus, the in-cab system and displays will indicate “all-clear” 

for the remaining duration of timeout after the wayside signal has changed aspect.

Although the operating rules require that the train crew comply with the most restrictive aspect 

in the case of conflicting indications, the “all-clear” on-board display during timeout or latency is 

potentially misleading, and could increase the chance of the crew failing to comply with the 

wayside signal. For example, the crew could “see” the aspect they expect at the wayside signal 

rather than the aspect that is actually displayed. This means that collision risk could actually be 

greater with PTC than for the reference CTC system when the train is in Zone C. The analysis 

provides for a risk increment to be added based on the distance the equipped train travels during 

latency or timeout in Zone C. The distance traveled in timeout state in Zone C is calculated from 

the formulas below, assuming that: 

a) The NAJPTC system is in timeout or latency, and

b) [A1 + A2] exceeds the length of the signal block and overlaps into Zone C. 

The distance traveled in timeout or latency in Zone C is then the smaller of the following:

Total distance in timeout, given by [C × V × 1.467] or overlap of A1 + A2 into Zone C, given by 

[A1 + A2] – [signal block length] 
A-29

Estimating the significance of distance traveled in timeout is clearly a difficult judgment call. 

The risk exposure from a very short period—a few seconds—is probably too little to have much 

influence. A very long period might give the crew sufficient time to notice something is wrong 

and take preventative action. Accident data and descriptions provide little relevant data, and 

there is little information on which to base an estimate of an increase in collision risk with PTC, 

if any. The only realistic option is to estimate the outer bounds of the effect to determine 

sensitivity of the final risk analysis results.
B-1 

Appendix B: Description of Calculations in Worksheet 2 – Collision

Probability and Preventability

B.1 Overview of Calculations

Figure B.1 illustrates the sequence of operations in Worksheet 2, in which estimated accident 

rates for passenger and freight trains in collisions are calculated. All these calculations are 

concerned with collisions between active trains operating on the IDOT test corridor. Other 

accident scenarios are addressed in Worksheet 3. The calculations performed in each individual 

step in the analysis are briefly described in the following paragraphs, and step-by-step

descriptions are provided in Sections B.2 and B.3.

Step 1: Define train pairs in collisions

Train pairs that could be involved in collisions were identified in part from the string 

charts shown in the description of the ASCAP rail system simulator developed at the 

Center of Rail Safety-Critical Excellence at the University of Virginia (IDOT Base Case 

Risk Assessment Results, University of Virginia, Rev 4, February 7, 2005) and 

consideration of the effects of schedule variability. These definitions cover all feasible 

pairings of the train types operating in the IDOT test corridor: the three train types are 

equipped passenger trains, equipped freight trains and unequipped passenger trains. In 

principle, any combination of train types can be involved in a collision. The train type 

pairings appear in the row headings of all analysis tables in Excel Worksheet 2. 

Step 2: Estimate relative frequency of train pair collisions

On the basis of the traffic mix (daily trains of each type) and the specific schedules 

shown in the string charts in the ASCAP description, estimates were developed of the 

relative frequency of collisions among the train pairs. The estimates are inputs to Table 

2.1a and 2.1b in the Excel worksheet. The analysis process is described in Section B2. 

Step 3: Estimate the distribution among head-on, side, and rear-end collisions

The distribution between head-on and side/rear-end collisions were estimated for each 

train pairing and segment type. The distribution varied by segment type (passing siding, 

signal block before or after a siding, and plain track signal block) because of the different 

mix of collision scenarios associated with each track layout. These values are also inputs 

to Table 2.1 in the Excel worksheet. These estimates are described in Section B.2. 

Step 4: Calculate detailed distribution of collisions

These calculations are results from the inputs of Steps 1 through 3 to provide a complete 

matrix of collision probabilities by segment type. The distribution is calculated for the 

CTC reference case, before applying estimates of which collisions can be prevented by 

the control system being analyzed (NAJPTC, cab signals with ATS or ATC). To 

facilitate the preventability calculations, the distribution matrix distinguished between 

“guilty” and “innocent” trains in collisions where the guilty train is the one that fails to 
B-2 

observe signal indications or operating instructions. This calculation is performed in 

Table 2.1a of the Excel worksheet. Table 2.1b performs the equivalent calculation for 

diamond crossing accidents, assuming all trains operating in the crossing direction are 

unequipped. 

Step 5: Develop a preventability matrix

The preventability matrix gives numerical estimates of what percentage of CTC base case 

collisions can be prevented when the control system (PTC, cab signal with ATS or cab 

signal with ATC) is activated. For example, most collisions between two equipped trains 

will be prevented by PTC, but collisions between two unequipped trains will not. 

Preventability estimates for collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train are 

derived from the calculations in Worksheet 1. All these calculations are performed in 

Table 2.3a of the Excel worksheet. Table 2.3b performs the equivalent calculation for 

diamond crossing accidents. Table 2.2 contains the results from the preventability 

calculation transferred from Worksheet 1. 

Step 6: Estimate CTC reference case accident frequencies

Accident frequencies expressed as collisions per million train-miles were estimated for 

the CTC reference case from historic accident data and detailed accident reports. The 

detailed reports were used to obtain a rough estimate of rates by segment type, because

these descriptions provide specific information on the location of a collision relative to 

sidings and other track features. These data, transferred from the Inputs worksheet, are 

inputs to Tables 2.4 and 2.5 of this Excel worksheet, which calculate frequencies for 

passenger trains in collisions and freight trains on collisions, respectively.

Step 7: Calculate frequencies of trains in collisions for freight and passenger trains 

The frequencies were estimated by combining the outputs from Steps 4, 5, and 6 and 

separating freight and passenger trains. The separation is required so that accident 

consequences can be estimated separately by train type. A vast difference occurs in 

consequences between freight and passenger trains involved in collisions, thus 

frequencies must be estimated individually. These calculations for passenger trains are 

performed in Table 2.4a of the Excel worksheet. Table 2.4b is the equivalent calculation 

for passenger trains in diamond crossing collisions and Tables 2.5a and 2.5b are the 

calculations for freight trains.
B-3 

Step 1: Define Train 

Pairs in Collisions 

(passenger/freight, 

equipped/unequipped)

S tep 2: Primary 

Dis tribution of C ollis ions 

by Train Pairs

S tep 3: Dis tribution 

between Head-on and 

R ear/S ide C ollis ions

S tep4: C alculate Dis tribution of 

Collis ions by Train Pair, Collis ion Type 

and which Train Is the “G uilty T rain”

S tep 6: R eference 

Cas e (CTC) Collis ion 

Frequency

S tep 5: P reventability Matrix -

P ercent R eferenc e C as e 

C ollis ions P revented or 

Mitigated by the T rain C ontrol 

S ys tem (from Works heet 1)

S tep 7: C alculate 

Frequencies of Trains in 

C ollis ions for F reight and 

Pas s enger Trains

Figure B.1. Flowchart for the Calculation of Collision Frequencies by Train Pair in Collisions 

Conducted in Worksheet 2

Output to

Works heet 3
B-4 

B.2 Collision Probabilities

This section addresses the methodology for estimating the distribution of collision accidents 

among different types of trains (passenger or freight, and PTC-equipped or PTC-unequipped) 

and among collision scenarios (head-on, rear-end, or side collisions). The calculations comprise 

Steps 1 to 4 as illustrated in Figure B1. The end product of this calculation is a tabulation of 

accident distribution by train and collision type, expressed as a fraction of total train-to-train 

collision accidents. 

The distribution is first calculated assuming that the train control system (PTC or other) is 

inactive, and trains are operating under CTC (i.e., for the reference case). The calculations are 

implemented for a specific analysis case, route Sub-corridor, train control system operating state, 

and season of the year. These data form the input to Steps 5 to 7 of the analysis. First, the 

distribution is multiplied by estimated collision accident frequency to obtain individual accident 

frequencies for each collision scenario. Then the resulting frequencies are multiplied by a 

collision preventability matrix that contains estimates of the fraction of collision accidents that 

would be prevented by activating the train control system. The values for collisions between 

PTC-equipped and PTC-unequipped trains are obtained from Worksheet 1. 

The following paragraphs describe Steps 1 to 4 of this procedure 

Step 1: Identification of train pairs in collisions

The traffic on the IDOT test corridor consists of a mix of passenger and freight trains, 

and in the case of the freight trains and the NAJPTC analysis cases, the locomotives may 

or may not be equipped with PTC. Thus, head-on, rear-end, or side collisions are 

possible between any feasible combination of these train types. The feasible 

combinations, divided into three groups, are listed below: 

Table B.1. Colliding Train Types in Feasible Collisions 

Group Colliding train types

Collisions between equipped trains Equipped passenger to equipped passenger

Equipped passenger to equipped freight 

Equipped freight to equipped freight

Collisions between an equipped and an 

unequipped train

Equipped passenger to unequipped freight

Equipped freight to unequipped freight

Collisions between unequipped trains Unequipped freight to unequipped freight

In the analysis, cases of cab signal with ATS and cab signal with ATC are train control 

systems in which all trains are equipped and the set of collision pairs to be analyzed are 

reduced to the three collision pairs in the first group of collisions between equipped trains 

with a zero probability for the other train pairs. 
B-5 

Step 2: Determine the primary distribution of train pairs in collisions

The distribution required is the probability that each of the train pairs identified in Step 1 

will be involved in a collision. Two approaches were used for estimating this probability:

• Assuming that encounters among the train types are random and the probability of 

any pair being involved in a collision is a direct function of the mix of trains 

operating on each portion of the IDOT test corridor. This approach is easy to apply 

but cannot represent significant biases due to the pattern of train operations as shown 

on the schedule. In particular, the current pattern of operations on the IDOT test 

corridor tends to concentrate passenger trains in the morning and evening and freight 

trains at other times of day. This increases the chance of passenger-passenger and 

freight-freight collisions and reduces the chance of passenger-freight collisions.

• String charts derived from train schedules are used to count the relative occurrence of 

meets and passes by train types involved. This exposure-based approach takes into 

account any systematic influence of the detailed schedule on mix of collisions but is 

cumbersome to apply in practice. The result is sensitive to how well trains adhere to 

schedule. Many sets of string charts would be needed to reflect traffic mix and 

volume for each Sub-corridor and season variability to maintain adherence to 

schedule.

The inputs used in the model made use of both sets of estimates by adjusting the results 

of the random calculations in the direction suggested by the string chart analysis. The 

results were entered into the applicable table on the inputs worksheet and references by 

Table 2.1a of this worksheet. Full details of the calculations and the results obtained are 

provided in Appendix F (Model Inputs).

Step 3: Estimate the distribution of collisions for each train pair between head-on, rear-end, 

and side collisions

To simplify the analysis and to avoid adding extra complication in an area where 

supporting data is limited, side and rear-end collisions have been combined. Both 

scenarios involve a locomotive hitting a passenger or freight car, and the differences in 

consequences will be limited.

As with the primary collision probabilities, multiple sources of information were used in 

making these estimates. 

• Review of the schedule string charts, as for the primary collision probabilities in 

Step 1; and

• Analysis of historic accident data, to determine the relative occurrence of head-on, 

read-end, and side collisions. For example, freight trains rarely rear end a passenger 

train because passenger trains normally travel faster than freight, although side 

collisions, whereas a freight locomotive hits a passenger car, do occur, notably at 

siding entries and exits.

The results of the string chart analysis showed that almost all collisions on the IDOT test 

corridor would be between trains traveling in opposing directions. With long intervals 
B-6 

between trains traveling in the same direction, the chance of a rear-end collision is very 

small. Side collisions are possible, most commonly at the entry and exit switches of 

passing sidings and into or out of yards and industrial sidings, where one train fails to 

comply with signals or operating instructions. Historic accident data on single-track 

railroads, combined with information derived from string charts, were used to obtain 

estimate of the prevalence of rear-end and side collisions. A full description of the 

process and the results obtained is described in Section F.3.3 of Appendix F (Model 

Inputs). The results were entered in the inputs worksheet and referenced in Table 2.1 of 

Worksheet 2. 

Two complications are related to estimating and applying the distribution between headon and rear/side collisions in the model. These are: 

1. Substantial differences occur in accident consequences for trains in rear-end/side 

collisions between passenger and freight trains, depending on whether the passenger 

locomotive hits a freight car, or whether the freight locomotive hits a passenger car. 

To take account of these differences, separate distribution estimates are made for 

these two scenarios.

2. On a single-track line with passing sidings, the types of collision that can occur 

depend on the location of the equipped train relative to passing sidings. Inspection 

of collision accident descriptions indicate that the majority of collision accidents 

take place in or near a passing siding, where one train fails to observe a stop signal 

at the end of a siding. In the risk analysis, the route is divided into segments for the 

risk analysis, and each segment corresponds to a signal block. The distribution 

between head-on and rear/side collisions is estimated separately for each of five 

segment types:

- Within a monitored (track circuited) siding, 

- Within an unmonitored siding (only two such sidings are in the IDOT test 

corridor), 

- In a signal block immediately before or after a monitored siding, a “CP 

adjacent” segment is in the model because a siding is always a control point 

with the underlying CTC signal system, 

- A signal block immediately before or after an unmonitored siding, and 

- A plain track segment that is not immediately before or after a siding.

Table 2.1b on Worksheet 2 contains information about collisions at diamond crossings. 

All collisions are assumed to be between the locomotive of one train at the midpoint of 

the second train. The crossing trains are always unequipped and can cross the IDOT 

test corridor at any time. No information is available on crossing train schedules to 

determine if diamond collision frequency varies by the type of train operating in the 

IDOT test corridor. 
B-7 

Step 4: Calculate estimated probabilities for head-on and rear-end/side collisions for each 

collision pair and segment type

This is a direct calculation from the estimates made in Steps 2 and 3. Plus, a 

determination of whether the equipped or unequipped train is the guilty train in the 

collision. The distinction between guilty and innocent trains in a collision and how it is 

applied in the calculation need further explanation, as provided in the following 

paragraph. 

The calculation of collision frequencies for the different collision pairs and segments 

types starts with an estimate of the distribution of collisions under CTC only (i.e., with 

the train control system isolated and not operating). Without train control, the 

distribution if collisions among train pairs and between head-on and rear-end/side 

collisions is a direct function of train mix, accident history (derived from predominantly 

CTC operation) and train schedules. In any collision under CTC, one of the two trains 

involved is the “guilty” train that failed to observe signal indications and operating 

instructions, and one is the “innocent” train that did not violate its authority. When the 

train control equipment is activated, it will prevent most or all of the accidents where 

the equipped train would have been the guilty train. In addition, in a collision between 

equipped and unequipped trains and where the unequipped train is the guilty train, the 

accident may still be prevented or mitigated by stopping the equipped (innocent) train. 

Whether the accident is prevented or mitigated depends on the proximity of the 

approaching equipped train and the ability of the control system to detect and respond 

to the authority violation by the unequipped train. Appendix A, Section A.3, 

“Calculation of Timeout Effects and Collision Risks” describes the process for 

estimating what fraction of accidents will be prevented or mitigated in collisions 

between equipped and unequipped trains. 

The analysis also assumes that, in the CTC reference case, the two trains involved in a 

collision are equally likely to be the guilty train. Obviously in collisions between two 

equipped trains, the guilty train is always an equipped train , and in collisions between 

two unequipped trains the guilty train is always an unequipped train. 

The end result of the collision accident distribution analysis is a set of probabilities for 

each segment type, distributed between colliding train pairs, head-on and rear-end/side 

collisions and between equipped and unequipped guilty trains. All the estimated 

probabilities at this stage in the calculations apply to trains operating with CTC only 

and under reference case conditions, with the PTC or other control system disabled. 

The calculations are carried out in Tables 2.1a and 2.1b of Worksheet 2. 
B-8 

B.3 Preventability Estimates

Step 5: Estimate and enter collision preventability values

Preventability is defined as the fraction of reference case (CTC) accidents (in this case 

collisions) that would be prevented by the train control system being analyzed. 

Collision preventability may be estimated for each pair of colliding trains using the 

following arguments: 

• Where both colliding trains are equipped with the train control system, the control 

system will prevent most collisions, depending on its exact capabilities. Even when 

operating normally, none of the systems analyzed can prevent all collisions. For 

example, collisions caused by a defective braking system cannot be prevented by any 

of the three systems (NAJPTC or the two base cases). Other possible causes of 

accidents include undetected errors made during maintenance or data entry or 

involving unequipped on-track maintenance or inspection equipment. PTC, which 

enforces braking to a stop every time, will likely be more effective than a cab-signal 

system with ATS, where the engineer acknowledges a warning to prevent a penalty 

stop and thereafter controls braking, or a cab signal system with ATC where speed is 

controlled down to, but not below, restricted speed. 

• Where one of the two colliding trains is equipped with the train control system, the 

control system will prevent most collisions where the equipped train would be the 

guilty train. If the unequipped train is the guilty party, the original violation will still 

take place, but the equipped train may be warned of the violation and be able to 

prevent or mitigate the collision. 

• Where both trains are unequipped, the control system cannot prevent a collision, and 

reference case collision frequencies apply.

The analysis approach has been specifically designed for the PTC analysis case where a 

mix of equipped and unequipped trains occur. Where all train are equipped as is the 

case with the cab signal system with ATS and the cab signal system with ATC cases, 

then the modeling gets much simpler with only “both train equipped” variants to 

consider. All other collision probabilities are set at zero.

Collision preventability values for collisions between equipped and unequipped trains 

have been calculated in Worksheet 1 and are collected on this worksheet as Table 2.2. 

The preventability values estimates for collisions between equipped trains for each 

analysis case are discussed in Appendix F (Model Inputs).
B-9 

B.4 Collision Frequency Estimates

Step 6: Estimate CTC reference case accident frequencies

The approach, used in the risk model, is to first estimate accident frequencies for 

conventional passenger and freight operations with CTC and conventional wayside 

signals, and block and interlocking systems. Then, the fraction of accidents of each type 

with CTC that would be prevented by the train control system being analyzed is 

estimated, leading to an estimate of actual accident frequencies with the control system. 

Accident frequencies, expressed as collisions per million train-miles, were estimated for 

the CTC reference case from historic accident data and detailed accident reports. The 

analysis and results, obtained or the specific operating conditions in the IDOT test 

corridor, are fully described in Section F.3.2 of the Appendix F (Model Inputs). A 

sample of detailed accident reports of collisions in single-track territory was used to 

obtain a rough estimate of how collision frequency varies by segment type. These data

(summarized in Table B.2) are inputs to Tables 2.4 and 2.5 of Worksheet 2. Note that the 

quantity estimated is the CTC reference case collision frequency in collisions per million 

train-miles. The same values are used for all analysis cases, so that even if some 

uncertainly is in the value, it would only have a limited effect on the comparison between 

control systems.

Table B.2. Summary of Estimated CTC Reference Case Collision Frequencies

Segment Type Collision Frequency

Collisions per Million Train-Miles

CTC Reference Case

CP adjacent, monitored 0.050

CP adjacent, unmonitored 0.060

Passing siding, monitored 0.030

Passing siding, unmonitored 0.040

Plain track 0.006

Step 7: Estimating frequencies of trains in accidents for passenger and freight trains

Two separate sets of calculations are performed. Table 2.4a on Worksheet 2 contains 

the calculations for passenger trains in collisions, and Table 2.5a contains the 

calculations for freight trains in collisions. The corresponding calculations for collisions 

at diamond crossings are contained in Tables 2.4b and 2.5b of Worksheet 2. The end 

product of these calculations is an estimate of the frequency of freight and passenger 

trains in collisions, subdivided by the type of the collision. Two points to note about the 

outputs of this calculation are: 
B-10

• Collision frequencies are for trains in collisions per million train-miles, not 

collisions per million train-miles. Because two trains are assumed to be in each 

collision, the overall frequencies for trains in collisions are twice those for collision 

frequency. Collisions involving more than two trains are considered to be highly 

improbable on this corridor with the low traffic density. Collisions with individual 

freight cars, cuts or cars, or on-track maintenance and inspection equipment are 

analyzed as intrusion collisions. 

• The denominator for all the trains-in-collision frequencies for individual train types 

and collision scenarios is always the total train-miles operated by all trains over 

each type of segment, not the train-miles operated by the individual train type. 

Summing the individual frequencies then gives the combined frequency for all 

trains. Collision frequency is governed by the overall traffic density and segment 

type and is a function of the number of trips by individual train type. 

The basic calculation is performed in Tables 2.4 and 2.5 of the worksheet for each cell 

represented in Table 2.1 of the worksheet. Each Table 2.1 cell provides an estimate of 

the fraction of collision accidents for the specific segment type/head-on, rear, and 

side/train pair in collision. The calculations in Tables 2.4a and 2.5a combine the 

following analysis steps:

• The calculations start with the overall collision frequency for each segment type for 

the reference case (CTC operation) from Step 6. 

• Multiply together the applicable collision probability from Step 4, the preventability 

estimate for the control system being analyzed from Step 5, the number of 

passenger or freight trains involved in the collision and the applicable collision rate 

to obtain collision frequencies (trains in collisions per million train-miles) for each 

segment type/train type/collision type combination. 

• Total collision rates for trains in collisions by the collision types are listed above for 

each segment type. These totaled rates are then applied to following stages in the 

analysis.

The totals give the estimated frequency of trains in collisions for each segment type for 

the following collision types: 

Passenger train collision types are:

• Passenger locomotive collides with another locomotive, 

• Passenger locomotive collides with a passenger car, 

• Passenger locomotive collides with a freight car, and 

• Passenger car is hit by a locomotive.

Freight train collision types are:

• Freight locomotive collides with another locomotive, 
B-11

• Freight locomotive collides with a freight or passenger car, and 

• Freight car is hit by a locomotive.

Each of these collision types will have different consequences (damage and human 

casualties and are analyzed separately in the risk calculations on Worksheet 3). Note, 

an assumption is that no cab car-led or multiple unit passenger trains operate in this 

corridor. If cab cars were used, additional collision types would occur—depending on 

traffic mix and train orientation—for which collisions frequencies would have to be 

calculated.
C-1

Appendix C: Descriptions of Calculations in Worksheet 3 – Risk Calculations

C.1 Overview of Calculations

The sequence of operations on Worksheet 3 is illustrated in the flow diagram provided in Figure 

C.1.

Figure C.1. Flow Diagram for Risk Calculations

The first layer of tables in this worksheet assembles the inputs needed for the risk calculations, 

comprising Tables 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, and 3.4a. All these inputs are taken from the inputs 

worksheet or are products of the calculations carried out on Worksheets 1 and 2.

The second layer of spreadsheet tables on the worksheet perform the actual risk calculations to 

yield estimates of the number of accidents, injuries, and property damage costs resulting from 10

years of operation of the IDOT test corridor. Separate calculations are performed in each case 

for passenger and freight trains. Tables 3.5a (passenger) and 3.6a (freight) perform the risk 

calculations for collisions and derailments, excluding collisions at diamond crossings and at 

rail/highway grade crossings. Tables 3.5b and 3.6b perform the risk calculations for collisions at 

diamond crossings with another railroad. Table 3.7 performs the risk calculations for 

rail/highway grade crossings.

The third layer consists of a single spreadsheet that assembles the risk analysis results for all 

accident scenarios in one table and calculates totals for one Sub-corridor, season, and operating 

state. These results are transferred to a results worksheet to be combined with results from the 

Table 3.4a:

Traffic and 

Occupancy 

Data

Tables 3.5a and 

3.6a: Risk 

Calculations for 

Collisions and 

Derailments

Tables 3.5b and 

3.6b: Risk 

Calculations for 

Diamond 

Crossings

Table 3.7: 

Risk 

Calculations 

for Grade 

Crossings

Table 3.1:

Accident 

Consequences, 

Collisions, and 

Derailments

Table 3.4:

Collision 

Frequencies

Summary 

of Results

To Results 

Worksheet

Table 3.3:

Aggregate Segment 

Length by Type and 

Representative 

Speed

Table 3.2:

Grade Crossings: 

Counts and 

Collision 

Consequences
C-2

other Sub-corridors, seasons, and operating states to yield a total for the whole IDOT test 

corridor.

The following paragraphs summarize the analysis procedures and further sections provide 

detailed descriptions of each analysis step.

Step 1: Assemble inputs for the risk calculation

Four inputs are required for the risk calculation for collisions and derailments: 

• Tabulation of consequences per accident, imported from the consequences tables on 

the inputs worksheet. Three consequence values are estimated for each accident 

scenario, train type, and representative speed: injuries, fatalities, and property 

damage. Property damage comprises damage to railroad-owned property only, as 

reported on FRA accident reports. With these three values, it is possible to calculate 

a financial measure of total harm from accidents by using standard USDOT values for 

an injury and a fatality. For most analysis cases, consequence values are held 

constant, because no changes are proposed to freight or passenger car design, train 

consists, or other factors that would affect consequences. However, consequences 

may be reduced for some analysis cases as a result of speed enforcement, and a group 

of sensitivity analysis were carried out to evaluate the effect of this factor on the 

comparison between NAJPTC and the base case systems. The reduced consequences 

estimates are discussed in Appendix F. Consequences values are provided in Table 

3.1 on the Excel worksheet for freight and passenger trains.

• Estimated aggregate segment lengths by segment type and representative speed for 

passenger and freight trains. These lengths are calculated on Worksheet 1, Segment 

Definitions and Timeout Effects, and are imported here from Table 1.5 and placed in 

Table 3.3. The values are the aggregate lengths (in miles) of all individual route 

segments that fall into each representative speed and segment type category.

• Collision frequencies for train-to-train collisions, expressed in terms of trains in 

collisions per million train-miles for collisions involving two trains operating on the 

IDOT test corridor, and collisions per million diamond crossing passes for collisions 

at diamond crossings. Accident frequencies per million train-miles for other 

collisions and derailments are imported directly from the inputs worksheet into the 

risk calculations in Tables 3.5a and 3.6a.

• Traffic (daily trips) and passenger train occupancy data needed for the risk 

calculations as shown in Table 3.4a. These data are imported from the inputs 

worksheet and comprise the average number of daily trips over the IDOT test corridor

by each type of train, the number of days in the summer and rest-of-year seasons, 

average occupancy of passenger trains (passenger and crew), and for NAJPTC only,

the percentage of train-miles operated in each operating state (normal or in timeout).

Step 2: Assemble inputs for the grade crossing risk calculations

Grade crossing inputs, comprising the following data:
C-3

• The number of grade crossings partitioned by the principal factors that affect crossing 

accident frequency and severity, specifically train type and speed and the warning 

system installed at the crossing. Grade crossing collision frequency is also affected 

by highway traffic levels, but this factor was not included in this analysis.

• Frequency of crossing collisions between a train and a highway vehicle that cause 

sufficient damage to be reportable as train accidents. The model does not analyze 

crossing collisions that are not reportable as train accidents, regardless of the 

consequences for the highway user.

• Crossing collision consequence data for injuries, fatalities and property damage for 

the train, its occupants and other railroad property, but excluding consequences for 

highway users and highway vehicles and their occupants.

These data are shown in Table 3.2 of Worksheet 3 and are imported directly from the 

inputs worksheet from Tables IN-3a, 3b, 3c, and 3d.

It should be noted that the analysis did not address risks to highway users in grade 

crossing collisions. Although significant, these risks are of limited relevance to 

comparisons between alternative train control systems, which are the primary concern of 

this analysis.

Step 3: Calculate frequencies for trains in collisions by speed and train types

This calculation takes the collision frequency data from Table 2.4a (passenger trains) 

and 2.5a (freight trains) on Worksheet 2, as transferred to Table 3.4, and combines these 

data with aggregate length of the different types of segment to derive weighted collision

frequencies by train type, speed and collision type. This calculation is carried out in the 

lower part of Table 3.4 of the Excel worksheet and is fully described in Section C.2 

below. 

Step 4: Risk calculations for collisions and derailments

These calculations comprise risk calculations for the following accident scenarios:

• Train-to-train collisions (a collision scenario for each pairing of colliding vehicles),

• Intrusion collisions due to unintended roll-out of rail vehicle(s) at a connecting 

switch,

• Intrusion collisions due to shifted loads, derailed vehicles, etc., on adjacent track 

away from a connecting switch,

• Overspeed derailments,

• Derailments due to broken rails (potentially detectable by track circuits), and

• Casualties due to work zone intrusions.

Calculations for passenger trains are carried out in Table 3.5a of the Excel worksheet. 

Table 3.5b is the equivalent calculation for diamond crossings. Tables 3.6a and 3.6b 

are the corresponding calculations for freight trains. The primary difference for freight 
C-4

trains is that no equivalent of the calculation of passenger casualties is based on 

passenger load, and train crew casualties are estimated on a per accident basis.

The basic sequence of operations for a risk calculation is to multiply the applicable 

reference case accident frequency by applicable preventability, exposure, and 

consequence parameters to obtain total risk. The calculation is performed for each 

representative speed and accident scenario. The inputs and calculations are as follows:

• Preventability factor (a number between zero and unity) applicable to the accident 

scenario. A factor of zero means that no reference case accidents are prevented by 

the control system, and a factor of unity means that all accidents are prevented. The 

preventability factors for train-to-train collision have been calculated on 

Worksheets 1 and 2 and are already included in the collision frequency values 

transferred to Table 3.4. The factors for other accident types have been calculated 

off-line as described in Appendix F and are taken from the inputs worksheet as 

inputs to this calculation. 

• Exposure data: for passenger trains, exposure is the number of train-miles and 

passenger-miles of exposure during a 10-year period for the specific Sub-corridor, 

season, and operating state obtained by multiplying train trips per day, days in the 

season, operating state percentage, and train-miles per trip at each representative 

speed to obtain train-miles of exposure. Then multiplying train-miles by number of 

seats in the train and average seat occupancy or load factor gives passenger-mile 

exposure

• Multiplying accident frequency by train-miles yields the number of accidents 

during the 10-year period. The number of accidents is multiplied by per-accident 

cost to get total damage for the speed and scenario. For train occupant casualties, 

the number of accidents is multiplied by number of occupants and injury or fatality 

probability from the consequence table to obtain the estimate of injuries and 

fatalities. A complete description of this calculation is described in Section C.3 of 

this Appendix.

Step 5: Risk calculations for diamond crossings

The risk calculations for diamond crossings are carried out in Tables 5b and 6b for 

passenger and freight trains, respectively, using the same sequence of operations as for 

other collisions and derailments. The primary difference is in calculating the exposure 

to collision risk, which in the case of collisions at diamonds is a function of the number 

of times a train operating on the IDOT test corridor passes over a diamond crossing.

Step 6: Risk calculations for grade crossings

The risk calculations for grade crossings are carried out in the same way as for other 

accident scenarios, except that accident frequency is measured in terms of collisions per 

million grade crossing passes, and exposure to risk as the number of crossing passes at 

each speed during the period are covered by the calculation. Table 3.7 on the Excel 

worksheet contains the grade crossing risk calculations for both passenger and freight 

trains.
C-5

Step 7: Risk totals

Results from all the individual risk calculations are combined into one tabulation, 

showing risks by train type, accident scenario and consequence, and the composite 

financial measure of all consequences. The table also includes totals for passenger 

trains, freight trains, and overall. These calculations are performed in Table 3.8 on the 

Excel worksheet.

The inputs to the risk calculations are contained in Tables 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, and 3.4a 

imported from either Worksheets 1 and 2 or from the inputs worksheet. The following 

sections describe the calculations contained in Tables 3.4b, 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, and 3.8.
C-6

C.2 Calculation of Train-to-Train Collision Frequencies (Table 3.4b)

The purpose of this analysis step is to calculate collision frequencies for input to the risk 

calculations in Tables 3.5 and 3.6 for passenger and freight trains, respectively. The calculations 

provide a weighted average collision frequency for trains in collisions at each representative 

speed based on the mix of segment types for which each speed applies. The calculation also 

takes into account the restriction of passenger trains to 79 mph in the vicinity of unequipped 

freight trains. This restriction is interpreted as meaning that all collisions between passenger and 

unequipped freight trains where a representative speed higher than 79 mph would normally apply 

take place at 79 mph. The original representative speed for that segment remains applicable to 

other accident scenarios.

The upper parts of Table 3.4 in Worksheet 3 contain frequencies for trains in collisions 

transferred from Tables 2.4a and 2.5a of Worksheet 2. The main table contains frequencies for 

trains in collisions by segment type and colliding vehicles in the collision. The frequencies are 

for the colliding vehicle pairs as listed below and include all passenger, freight, equipped, and 

unequipped trains for which the colliding vehicle pair could apply.

• Passenger trains:

- Passenger locomotive collides with another locomotive (passenger or freight),

- Passenger locomotive collides with a passenger car,

- Passenger locomotive collides with a freight car, and

- Passenger car hit by a passenger or freight locomotive.

• Freight trains:

- Freight locomotive collides with a passenger or freight locomotive,

- Freight locomotive collides with a freight or passenger car, and

- Freight car is hit by a locomotive.

The segment types, taken from Worksheet 2, are:

• Siding (monitored),

• Siding (unmonitored),

• Control point adjacent (monitored), 

• Control point adjacent (unmonitored),

• Plain track, and

• Diamond crossing.

A subsidiary table provides frequencies for collisions between passenger trains and unequipped 

freight trains only. The data are also taken from Tables 2.4a and 2.5a of Worksheet 1 and are 

applicable only to passenger trains in collisions for three colliding vehicle scenarios:
C-7

• Passenger locomotive collides with a freight locomotive,

• Passenger locomotive collides with a freight car, and

• Passenger car hit by a freight locomotive.

The calculations take place in the lower portion of Table 3.4, as described below. 

• For passenger train representative speeds of 40 and 60 mph, and all freight train speeds, a 

weighted collision frequency is calculated for each colliding vehicle scenario by summing 

[(aggregate segment length) × (frequency of trains in collisions)] for each segment type and 

dividing by the total of segments of all types with that representative speed. 

• For 79 mph speeds only, the formula for weighted collision frequency includes both 

“regular” 79-mph segments and collision frequencies for 105-mph segments for collisions 

between passenger and unequipped freight trains. Because the denominator in the equation 

calculating the weighted average is the sum of 79- and 105-mph segments, a corresponding 

change in the formulas for the 79-mph passenger train risk calculation in Table 3.5a is 

required to use the same sum of 79- and 105-mph segment lengths in calculating train-miles 

operated over 10 years as described in Section C.3.2 below.

• For 105-mph representative speeds for passenger trains, the weighted average is the 

frequency of trains in collisions involving two equipped trains only. This is calculated from 

the difference of frequencies for all trains in collisions at this speed (from the main table), 

less the frequency for trains in collisions with unequipped freight trains (from the subsidiary 

table).

Note, frequencies of trains in collisions calculated in Table 3.4 are for the contribution of each 

colliding vehicle collision scenario to the overall frequency of trains in collisions. Thus, in the 

risk calculations in Tables 3.5a and 3.6a, the applicable train-miles of exposure are calculated for 

all trains operated in that Sub-corridor, season, and operating state, not just those of the 

individual train type. This is because the approach used in the collision matrix calculations on 

Worksheet 2 in which collision frequencies for trains in collisions were calculated for the 

fraction of collision accidents that belong to each train-pair scenario. Total collision frequency is 

obtained by summing the individual frequencies.
C-8

C.3 Accident Risk and Preventability Calculations for Collisions and 

Derailments (Tables 3.5a and 3.6a)

C.3.1 Introduction

The accident scenarios included in this table are:

• Train-to-train collisions for passenger trains,

• Intrusion collisions due to unintended roll-out of a vehicle at a connecting switch,

• Intrusion collisions due to shifted loads, derailed vehicles, etc. on adjacent track,

• Overspeed derailments,

• Derailments due to broken rails (possible detectable by track circuits, and

• Casualties due to work zone intrusions.

The risk and preventability calculations for passenger trains are carried out in Table 3.5a of the 

Excel worksheet. Table 3.5b is the equivalent calculation for diamond crossings. Tables 3.6a 

and 3.6b are the corresponding calculations for freight trains. The primary difference for freight 

trains is that no equivalent of the passenger occupancy calculation exists, and train crew 

casualties are estimated on a “per accident” basis.

C.3.2 Passenger Train Train-to-Train Collisions

The risk calculations cover four passenger train collision scenarios:

• Passenger locomotive collides with another freight or passenger locomotive,

• Passenger locomotive collides with a passenger car,

• Passenger locomotive collides with a freight car, and

• Passenger car hit by a freight or passenger locomotive.

These four scenarios cover all the possible combinations for passenger trains on this corridor. 

Additional scenarios could arise if push-pull or multiple-unit passenger trains are used. 

Collision preventability has already been included in the collision accident frequencies 

calculated on Worksheet 2 and the weighted collision frequencies calculated in Table 3.4. The 

risk calculation is performed for each representative speed to yield an estimate of the number of 

passenger trains in collisions for each colliding vehicle scenario over ten years as follows:

[Estimated number of passenger trains in collisions of each type over 10 years operation for a 

specific combination of representative speed, Sub-corridor, season and operating state] = 

[weighted accident frequency (per million train-miles) from Table 3.4] × 

[train-miles at this representative speed per trip over the Sub-corridor] ×

[number of trips per day] [days in season] × [10 (for 10 years)]..........................(1)
C-9

Casualty rates for the consequences are estimated as the chance that a train occupant will be 

either killed or injured in the accident. Thus estimated casualties in these accidents are 

calculated as follows:

[casualties (injuries or fatalities)] = 

[number of accidents] × [casualty rate (from consequences table)] × 

[seats on train] × [occupancy factor] ..................................................................(2)

Property damage costs are obtained simply from multiplying the number of accidents by peraccident cost taken from the consequences lookup table

C.3.3 Freight Train Train-to-Train Collisions

The calculations for freight trains follow the same process as for passenger trains, with the 

following variations:

• Three collision scenarios are analyzed, being all those possible for freight trains operating in 

this corridor:

- Freight locomotive collides with another passenger or freight locomotive.

- Freight locomotive collides with a freight or passenger car.

- Freight car is hit by a locomotive.

As with passenger trains, collision frequencies from Table 3.4 entered into Table 3.6a include 

the preventability calculations from Worksheet 2, which take into account the mix of PTCequipped and unequipped trains operating in each Sub-corridor.

• Train crew casualties are simply calculated from a casualty rate per accident from the freight 

train consequences table multiplied by the estimated number of accidents. No equivalent of 

the calculation step referencing train seating capacity and seat occupancy factor in the 

passenger train risk calculations.

C.3.4 Other Collisions and Derailments, Passenger and Freight Trains 

This group comprises the following accident scenarios:

• Intrusion collisions with a car or cut of cars that has rolled or been pushed out from a siding 

or is fouling the main track at a connecting switch,

• Intrusion collisions with a derailed vehicle on an adjacent track or with a shifted load away 

from a connecting switch,

• Derailments due to overspeed, and

• Derailments due to broken rails.

The passenger train calculation for each of these scenarios follows a common process, as 

follows:
C-10

[Estimated number of accidents over 10 years operation for a specific combination of 

representative speed, Sub-corridor, season and operating state] = 

[Base accident frequency (per million train-miles) from inputs worksheet] ×

[1 – estimated preventability, from the inputs worksheet] ×

[train-miles at this representative speed per trip over the Subcorridor] ×

[number of trips per day] × [days in season] × [10 (for 10 years)].......................(3)

Casualty rates from the consequences table are estimated as the chance that a train occupant will 

be either killed or injured in the accident. Thus, estimated train occupant casualties in these 

accidents are calculated as follows:

[Casualties (injuries or fatalities)] = 

[number of accidents] × [casualty rate (from consequences table)] ×

[seats on train] × [occupancy factor] ....................................................................(4)

Property damage costs are obtained simply from multiplying the number of accidents by peraccident cost taken from the consequences lookup table.

The corresponding calculation for freight trains follows the same pattern with the following 

variations:

• Separate calculations are performed for PTC-equipped trains and trains not equipped with 

PTC for each scenario. Preventability for equipped trains is obtained from the lookup tables 

on the inputs worksheet and preventability for unequipped trains is set at zero.

• Train crew casualties are simply calculated from a casualty rate per accident from the freight 

train consequences table times the estimated number of accidents. No equivalent exists of 

the calculation step referencing train seating capacity and seat occupancy factor in the 

passenger train risk calculations.

C.3.5 Work Zone Intrusions

The calculation of risk from work zone intrusions is included in Tables 3.5a for passenger trains 

and 3.6a for freight trains. The calculation differs from those for the other collision scenarios in 

that only casualties among on track workers are calculated for this scenario. Casualties and 

damage to a train and its occupants in collisions with work trains or work equipment as a result 

of a work zone intrusion are captured in the model as either an intrusion or a train-to-train 

collision as appropriate. This approach was taken because the available information was rarely 

clear as to whether a specific incident was due to a failure to observe work zone limits or an error 

by on track workers. More analysis is desirable to obtain a full accounting of the causes of 

accidents involving on-track workers and maintenance and inspection equipment.

The specific calculation starts with estimated casualty frequencies per million train-miles for ontrack workers in work zone violation incidents, derived from national statistics. The injury and 

fatality estimates in Tables 3.5a and 3.6a are simply obtained by multiplying train-miles operated 

by the injury and fatality frequencies and transferred to the risk summary table.
C-11

C.4 Accident Risk and Preventability Calculations for Diamonds 

(Tables 3.5b and 3.6b)

The risk and preventability calculations for diamonds, implemented in Table 3.5b for passenger 

trains and 3.6b for freight trains, follow the same pattern as for those for train-to-train collisions. 

The collision frequency for diamond crossings is calculated on Worksheet 2 and transferred to 

Table 3.4 of this worksheet. Diamond collision frequency is expressed as collisions per million 

diamond crossing passes. Because in all cases, the crossing train is a freight train operated by 

railroad other than UP, the crossing train is always assumed to be unequipped. The speed limit 

over diamond crossings for both passenger and freight trains is 40 mph in all cases. The specific 

collision scenarios at diamonds are:

• Passenger trains:

- Passenger train locomotive operating on the IDOT test corridor collides with freight car 

of crossing train, and

- Passenger car in train operating on the IDOT test corridor is hit by the crossing freight 

train locomotive.

• Freight trains:

- Freight train locomotive operating on the IDOT test corridor collides with freight car, and

- Freight car of train operating on the IDOT test corridor is hit by the crossing freight train 

locomotive.

The collision frequencies calculated in Worksheet 2 have already taken into account the mix of 

unequipped and equipped freight trains operating on each Sub-corridor of the IDOT test corridor.

The calculations themselves are straightforward: multiplying frequency by the number of 

diamond crossings in the Sub-corridor and total trips over 10 years yields an estimate of the 

number of diamond collisions. Then, consequences (injuries, fatalities, and property damage) 

are calculated in exactly the same way as for train-to-train collisions, including referencing the 

same collision consequence lookup tables for the specific collision type and representative speed.
C-12

C.5 Accident Risk and Preventability Calculations for Grade 

Crossings (Table 3.7)

The risk and preventability calculations for grade crossings are performed in Table 3.7 for both 

passenger and freight trains. Calculations of grade crossing risk are performed in the table for 

each grade crossing type and representative speed and then totaled.

The starting point for grade crossing risk calculations are the crossing data assembled in Table 

3.2, which in turn is obtained from the inputs worksheet as described under Step 1 in Section C.1

of this Appendix. These data consist of:

• Counts of the number of crossings by type and representative speed. The counts are 

compiled separately for passenger and freight trains, given the different speeds, and for the 

three types of crossing:

- Public highway crossing with gates, flashing lights, and other active warning systems;

- Public highway with any other form of warning; and

- Private crossings.

• Estimated collision frequencies for each crossing type, train type and representative speed are 

for crossing collisions that are sufficiently serious to be reportable as train accidents, not the 

higher frequency of all reportable grade crossing collisions. The units of crossing collision 

frequency are collisions per million grade crossing passes.

• Crossing collision consequences table—injuries and fatalities for train occupants and other 

railroad employees and railroad property damage per collision at each representative speed 

and for passenger and freight trains.

With this data in hand, the risk calculation proceeds as follows. The calculation is repeated for 

each representative speed of freight and passenger trains and for each crossing type.

• Calculate an adjusted collision frequency by applying a preventability factor (taken from the 

inputs worksheet) to the base collision frequency obtained from Table 3.2 in the worksheet.

• Multiply collision frequency (collisions per million crossing passes) by the number of 

crossing passes over 10 years to obtain the number of crossing collisions over 10 years. The 

number of crossing passes is given by:

[Crossing passes] = [trips/day] × [days in season] ×

[fraction of train-miles in this operating state] ×

[number of crossings of this type in Sub-corridor] × [10 (for 10 years)] .(5)

• Calculate grade crossing consequences by multiplying the number of collisions by the 

applicable per-collision consequences (injuries, fatalities, and property damage), in the same 

way as for other accident scenarios in Tables 3.5a and 3.6a.

• Sum grade crossing collision consequence totals for passenger and freight trains and transfer 

this data to the risk summary Table 3.8.
C-13

C.6 Risk Totals (Table 3.8)

Table 3.8 assembles the results of the risk calculations in Tables 3.5a and b, 3.6a and b, and 3.7 

into a single table for the specific Sub-corridor, season of the year and NAJPTC operating state 

(for PTC analyses). This table allows convenient review of results by the analyst and is 

transferred to the results worksheet to be combined with corresponding Tables 3.8 from the other 

Worksheets 3 for the analysis case so that totals can be calculated for the compete corridor.
D-1 

APPENDIX D: IDOT CORRIDOR 

Material contained in this appendix includes documentation of the features of the IDOT corridor 

considered during this effort. 

Information pertaining to detailed track features provided on pages D-2 through D-21 was provided by 

Booz Allen Hamilton. Provision of this material does not imply concurrence of results/conclusions 

contained in this report by Booz Allen Hamilton or its employees.

Information provided on pages D-22 through D-53 are taken from track charts used internally by the 

Union Pacific Railroad. 
FRA IDOT PTC Project Data

Start Reference - Mazonia, IL MAS 110 MPHMilepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

62.0062.1062.2062.3062.40 UG Bridge62.5062.60 Project Start Mazonia

62.67 79 Project Start62.69 79 # 20 TO62.70 79 Mazon River UG Bridge62.80 62.9063.0063.1063.2063.3063.4063.5063.6063.7063.8063.9064.0064.07 Storm Road FL&B64.1064.2064.3064.36 Washington Street FL&B64.4064.47 Division Street FL&B64.5064.60 PED XING None64.63 Jackson Street Cant FL&B64.7064.75 Main Street FL&B64.80 64.9065.0065.10 HGWY IL 53 OH Bridge65.2065.3065.4065.50 Maher Road XBucks65.60 Farm (PVT) Gates65.7065.8065.9066.0066.10 Creek UG Bridge66.2066.3066.4066.5066.55 66.6066.7066.8066.9066.91 Gorman Road XBucks67.0067.1067.2067.30 UG Pipe67.40

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-2 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

67.5067.60 UG Pipes67.70 Goodfarm Rd OH Bridge67.8067.9067.95 Farm (PVT) None

68.0068.1068.2068.23 

68.3068.33 Filman Road XBucks68.4068.5068.6068.7068.8068.9069.0069.09 Stonewall Road XBucks UG Pipe69.1069.2069.3069.4069.5069.6069.7069.74 Gantzert Road XBucks69.80 UG Pipe69.9070.0070.1070.17 PO # 20 Facing Left CPX 073 2 - N, 70.20 DWIGHT DE Passing 12,375 Creek UG Bridge70.3070.36 Dwight North70.4070.5070.52 Scully Road - 2 Tracks XBucks70.6070.7070.8070.9071.0071.1071.14 Mazon Road - 2 Tracks XBucks71.2071.30 UG Pipe71.4071.5071.6071.7071.73 HO Switch71.75 Stub ??? PS # 10 Facing Left71.78 HO Switch71.8071.9071.95 Livingston Rd/TR 1H - 2 Tracks XBucks

72.0072.1072.2072.3072.4072.5072.60 79 Gooseberry UG Bridge

72.70 7972.78 79 PO # 20 Trailing Left CPX 073 2 - S, 72.79 79 Dwight South72.80 40 DWIGHT END DE Passing

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-3 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

72.81 60 NS Crossing 1 - N, 72.90 7973.00 7973.07 79 #10 EL LK Trailing Left NS Conn.73.10 79 Union Avenue / SR 47 Gates73.20 7973.30 79 Creek UG Bridge73.40 7973.50 7973.51 79 Mazon Avenue/ SR 17 Gates73.55 79 North Depot (PED) None73.60 7973.65 79 South Depot (PED) None73.70 79 Chippewa Street Gates73.80 79 PS # 10 Facing Right Amtrak Depot73.90 7973.95 79 Washington Street Gates74.0074.1074.2074.3074.4074.5074.6074.7074.8074.9074.93 TR 19 B FL&B74.94 75.0075.1075.2075.3075.4075.5075.6075.7075.8075.9075.93 TR 220 XBucks76.0076.1076.2076.3076.31 TR - 29 B OH Bridge76.4076.5076.6076.7076.8076.88 TR 216 B XBucks76.9077.0077.1077.2077.27 77.3077.4077.5077.6077.61 90 N. End of Curve 8° 14'77.70 90 Private Road (PVT) None Amazon Riv UG Bridge77.80 9077.88 90 S End of Curve END77.9078.0078.1078.2078.30

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-4 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

78.4078.5078.6078.7078.8078.9078.96 TR 41 C XBucks79.0079.1079.2079.3079.4079.5079.60 UG Pipe79.7079.80 UG Pipe79.9080.0080.1080.13 80.2080.21 TR 47 B XBucks80.30 80.4080.5080.6080.70 UG Pipe80.8080.9081.0081.1081.2081.3081.4081.43 Prairie Street FL&B81.5081.52 Scott Street Gates81.6081.65 Tremont Street Gates81.7081.72 Hamilton Street Gates81.8081.9081.98 Odell North81.99 PS # 20 Facing Left CPX 082 2 - N, 82.00 ODELL DE Passing 12,760 UG Pipe82.1082.2082.3082.40 Stub ??? PS # 10 Trailing Left82.5082.6082.69 TR 69 - 2 Tracks Gates82.7082.8082.9083.0083.1083.2083.30 TR 79 A UG Bridge83.4083.5083.6083.7083.8083.9084.0084.1084.2084.30 TR 79 A OH Bridge

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-5 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

84.4084.5084.6084.65 PS # 20 Trailing Left CPX 085 1 - N84.67 Odell South84.70 ODELL END DE Passing UG Pipe84.8084.9085.0085.1085.2085.3085.4085.5085.6085.7085.80 UG Pipe85.9086.0086.1086.2086.3086.40 CO Rd UG Bridge86.43 86.5086.6086.70 Wolf Creek UG Bridge86.8086.9086.92 Main Street FL&B87.0087.1087.2087.3087.4087.5087.6087.7087.8087.9088.0088.1088.2088.3088.35 88.4088.5088.52 Bunge Y Y Track PS # 10 Facing Left Bunge Y - Grain88.60 UG Pipe CPX 08788.7088.80 UG Pipe88.81 Bunge Y END PS # 10 Trailing Left Bunge Y - Grain88.90 TR 113A/Bunge Road FL&B89.0089.1089.2089.3089.4089.5089.6089.7089.80 79 North Creek UG Bridge89.90 7990.00 7990.10 79 UG Pipe90.20 7990.30 7990.40 7990.50 7990.55 79 90.60 7990.62 79 Aurora Street FL&B90.70 5090.80 5090.90 50 UG Pipe91.00 50

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-6 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

91.10 50 Off Siding East Industrila Lead HO Trailing Left

91.13 50 Main Street FL&B91.20 5091.30 50 CPX 09291.32 50 Freight Stub ??? PS # 10 Trailing Left Indust. Lead 9° 43'

91.40 5091.50 5091.59 50 Division Street Gates END

91.60 5091.65 50 Cleary Street Gates91.70 5091.75 50 Freight Stub PS # 10 Facing Left91.79 50 North Street (PED) None91.80 5091.90 50 Howard Street Gates91.91 50 HO Switch91.97 50 Madison Street Gates92.00 5092.07 79 Washington Street Gates92.10 79 Vermillion Rvr UG Bridge 92.20 7992.30 7992.40 7992.47 79 Reynolds Street/SR 116 Gates PS #20 TO Facing Right CPX 093 2-N, 92.50 79 PONTIAC DE Passing 11,770 Pontiac North92.60 7992.70 7992.80 7992.90 7993.00 7993.10 7993.20 7993.30 7993.40 7993.50 7993.59 79 TR 137 A/ 2 - Tracks Gates93.60 7993.70 7993.80 7993.90 7994.00 7994.10 7994.20 7994.30 79 Turtle Creek UG Bridge94.40 7994.50 7994.60 7994.70 79 UG Pipe94.71 79 TR 145 A /Lincoln 2- Tracks Gates94.80 79 UG Pipe94.90 7994.97 79 PONTIAC END DE Passing PS #20 TO Trailing Right Pontiac South (CPX 095) 1 - N, 95.00 79 Farm (PVT) None Turnout95.1095.2095.3095.4095.50 Farm (PVT) None95.6095.7095.8095.85 TR 159 FL&B95.9096.0096.1096.2096.3096.40 Farm (PVT) None96.5096.60 Farm (PVT) None 96.7096.8096.81 96.9097.00 Rook Creek UG Bridge97.10

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-7 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

97.2097.3097.4097.5097.59 Ocoya97.6097.65 OCOYA/Freight DE Passing ??? PS # 10 Facing Left97.7097.8097.9097.95 OCOYA END DE Passing PS #10 Trailiing Left

97.96 Ocoya CPX 098

98.0098.08 CR 8 Gates

98.1098.2098.3098.4098.5098.6098.7098.8098.9098.98 Rook Creek UG Bridge

99.0099.1099.20 TR 195 A FL&B99.3099.4099.50 Farm (PVT) Stop Sign99.6099.7099.8099.90

100.00100.10100.19 Rook Creek UG Bridge

100.20100.28 100.30 Farm (PVT) None100.40100.50100.60100.70100.80100.87 TR 209 FL&B100.90 Creek UG Bridge101.00101.10101.20101.30101.40101.44 TR 1 B FL&B101.50101.60101.70101.80101.90102.00102.04 Division Street Gates102.10 Freight Junction ??? # 10 EL LK Facing Right TPW102.20102.25 79 or 40 TPW Crossing102.29 TPW Xing ?? Chenoa ???102.30 40 CHENOA ???? NA? CPX 102 1-N, 2102.37 Owsley Street Gates102.40102.50102.57 Cemetary Street/ US 24 Gates102.60102.70102.80102.90103.00103.10103.20

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-8 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

103.30103.40103.50103.60103.69 TR 23 A FL&B

103.70103.80103.90104.00104.10104.20104.30 Farm (PVT) None

104.40104.50104.58 

104.60104.70104.80 UG Pipe104.90105.00105.10105.20105.30105.40105.50105.60105.70105.80105.90105.93 TR 35 A FL&B106.00 UG Bridge106.10106.20106.30 Farm (PVT) None106.40 BALLARD DE Passing 11,440 Facing Right106.43 PS #20 TO CPX 106 2-N, 

106.46 Ballard North???106.50106.60106.64 Stub # 8 HO Trailing Right106.70106.80106.90107.00107.10 OH Bridge107.20107.30107.40107.50 Farm (PVT) / 2 Tracks None107.60107.70107.80107.90108.00108.10108.20108.30108.40108.47 Turkey Creek UG Bridge108.50108.60108.70108.80 BALLARD END DE Passing Trailiing Right108.83 PS # 20 TO CPX 109 1-N, 2108.84 Ballard South108.90 Orange Street FL&B109.00 UG Pipe109.10109.20109.30109.40109.50109.60 90 N End of Curve 16°212'109.70 90109.80 90109.90 90

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-9 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

110.00 90 # 10 TO110.01 90 S End of Curve END110.05110.10 North Street Gates

110.20110.27 Main Street Cant/FL&B/Gates110.30110.36 Chestnut Street FL&B

110.40110.50 CPX 110

110.60110.70110.80110.90110.94 90 N End of Curve 6° 12'111.00 90111.10 90111.17 90 S End of Curve END111.20 Makin River UG Bridge111.30111.36 

111.40111.50111.60111.65 TR 83 FL&B

111.70111.80111.90112.00112.10112.20 UG Pipe

112.30112.40112.50112.60112.70112.80112.90113.00113.10113.20113.30 113.40113.49 Killian Road FL&B113.50113.60113.70113.80113.81 UG Pipe113.90114.00114.02 Hudson Road OH Bridge114.10114.20114.30114.40 UG Pipe114.50114.60114.70114.80 Private (PVT) None114.90115.00 115.10 115.18 TR 358 A FL&B115.20115.30115.40 UG Pipe115.50115.60115.70115.80115.90116.00116.10116.20116.30

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-10 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

116.36 116.40116.50116.60116.70116.80116.90116.99 UG Pipe117.00117.10117.20117.26 Money Crk UG Pipe117.30117.40117.50117.60117.70117.80117.90118.00118.05 Washington Street FL&B

118.10118.12 Madison Street FL&B118.20118.25 Jefferson Street FL&B118.30118.40118.50118.58 TOWANDA / Freight Stub ???? HO # 10 TO Trailing Left118.60 Tonawanda

118.70118.80118.83 118.90119.00119.10119.20119.30119.40119.50119.60119.70119.80119.90120.00120.03 TR 306 A FL&B120.10120.20120.30120.40120.50 Farm (PVT) None120.60120.70120.80120.90121.00121.01 UG Pipe121.10121.20121.30121.40 NORMAL DE Passing 17952 PS Facing Right Normal North (CPX 121) 2-N, 121.50 No 1 ML121.60121.70121.80 UG Pipe121.90 Veteran Pkwy OH Bridge122.00122.05 UG Pipe122.10122.20122.30122.40122.50122.60 OH Bridge122.70122.80

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-11 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

122.90 UG Pipe123.00123.10123.20123.30123.39 UG Pipe123.40 40 Ft. Jesse Road Gates Ft. Jessie Rd

123.50 40123.57 40 X-Over 2- PS # 20 Trailing Location 883 1-S, 1

123.60 40123.67 40 Beech Street - 2 Tracks Gates123.70 40123.79 40 Mulberry Street - 2 Tracks Gates123.80 40123.90 40123.91 40 College Avenue - 2 Tracks Gates124.00 40 Linden Street - 2 Tracks Gates124.03 40 X-Over 2- PS # 20 Trailing Location 884

124.10 40 NORMAL END ? DE Passing Amtrak Stat CPX 124124.11 40 Normal124.15 40 Station (PED) - 2 Tracks None124.20 40 Broadway Street - 2 Tracks Gates124.28 40 Felll Avenue - 2 Tracks Gates124.30 40124.35 40 Hester Street (PED) - 2 Tracks None124.38 40 X-Over 2- PS # 20 Facing Location 885 2 - N 124.40 40124.50 40 School Street UG Bridge124.60 40 Verno Ave UG Bridge124.68 40 University Street - 2 Tracks Gates124.70 40124.80 40 BLOOMINGTON YD Hghwy 51 UG Bridge124.83 40 Main Street124.86 40 HO #9 TO Blmntn Yd CPX 125 2 , Lo

124.90 40 Hghwy 51 UG Bridge Bloomington North

125.00 40 Sugar Crk Br125.10 40 Division St UG Bridge125.20 40 Emerson St. OH Bridge125.25 40 

125.30 40125.40 40125.50 40 NS Crossing???125.51 40 Multip125.60 40125.70 40125.80 40125.90 40126.00 40 No 1, ML End126.03 40 UG Pipe126.10 40126.20 40 Locust Street OH Bridge126.30 40 Market St UG Bridge126.40 30 END126.43 30 Market Street126.50 30 Washington Street Cant. FL&B BN TARGET BN Target

126.51 30 NS Crossing126.60 30 End Spfld Division BLOOMINGTON Const. Trail OH Ped BR Bloomington

126.70 50126.80 50 Bridge UG Bridge 126.90 50126.95 50 OH Bridge127.00 50127.10 50 UG Pipe127.19 50 Miller Street - 2 Tracks Gates127.20 50127.30 50127.40127.50 UG Pipe127.60127.70127.80127.90 UG Pipe128.00128.09 Six Points Road - 2 Tracks Gates128.10128.20

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-12 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

128.30128.40128.50128.60128.65 OH Bridge128.70 OH Bridge128.75 CPX 129128.76 Bloomington South?? 1 - N, 128.80 OH Bridge128.90129.00129.10129.20129.30129.40129.50129.60 UG Pipe129.70129.80129.90130.00 UG Pipe130.10130.20130.27 90 N End of Curve 17° 38'130.30 90 UG Bridge130.40 90130.50 90130.60 90130.70 90 S End of Curve End130.80130.90130.96 131.00131.10131.20131.30131.40131.50131.60131.70131.80131.90132.00132.10132.20132.30 OH Bridge132.40132.50132.60132.70132.80132.90133.00133.10133.20133.30133.40133.50133.60133.70 TR 443 FL&B133.72 133.80 133.90134.00134.10134.20134.30134.40134.50134.60 UG Pipe134.70134.80134.89 UG Pipe134.90 Farm (PVT) None135.00135.10

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-13 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

135.20135.30135.40135.50135.60135.70135.80 2 UG Pipes135.90136.00136.10136.20136.30136.35 Funks Grove Road FL&B

136.40136.50 Sugar Ck Bridge

136.60136.70136.80136.90 136.95 Farm (PVT) None

137.00137.10137.20137.30137.40137.50137.60137.70 UG Pipe

137.80137.90 UG Pipe138.00138.10138.20138.30138.40138.50 UG Pipe138.60138.63 PS # 20 TO 2 -N, 138.67 McLean North138.69 CPX 139138.70 McLEAN DE Passing 12,430 PS # 20 TO Facing Left138.80138.90139.00139.10139.12 TR 533 - 2 Tracks Gates139.20139.30139.40139.50139.60139.70139.80139.90140.00140.10140.16 Stub ??? EL LK # 10 TO Facing Right140.19140.20140.29 PS # 20 TO 1 - N 140.30140.40140.50140.60140.70140.80140.90140.91 Railroad Avenue - 2 Tracks Gates141.00141.10141.16 US 136 - 2 Tracks Gates141.20141.30 McLEAN END DE Passing PS # 20 TO Trailing Left CPX 141141.32 McLean South141.40141.50

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-14 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

141.60141.70141.80141.90142.00142.10142.20142.30142.40142.50142.60142.70142.80 Atlanta142.90143.00143.10143.20143.30143.35 143.40143.50143.60143.69 FTS Fert Freight Stub ???? HO #10 Trailing Right143.70 CPX 144143.73 HO Switch F & S Fertilizer

143.74 TR 38 FL&B

143.80143.90144.00144.10 Clear Ck Bridge

144.20144.30144.40144.44 Private (PVT) None

144.50144.60144.70 UG Pipe

144.80144.90145.00145.10145.20145.30145.34 ATLANTA Freight Stub ???? HO# 10 Facing Left145.40 HO Switch145.50145.60145.69 79 N End of Curve 12° 38'145.70 65145.75 65 Elm Street Gates145.78 65 S End of Curve End145.80 65 ATLANTA ??? CPX 146145.81 65 Vine Street Cant. FL&B/Gates145.85 65 Race Street Cant. FL&B/Gates145.90 65146.00 65146.07 90 N End of Curve146.10 90146.19 90 S End of Curve146.20146.30145.34146.40146.50146.60146.70146.80146.90146.99 90 N End of Curve 25° 08'147.00 90147.10 90147.20 90147.30 90147.40 90147.50 90 UG Pipe147.60 90 Lazy Row Road/TR 51 FL&B 

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-15 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

147.70 90147.73 90 S End of Curve End147.80147.90148.00148.10148.20148.26 148.30148.40148.45 90 N End of Curve 12° 38'148.50 90148.60 90148.70 90148.79 90 S End of Curve End148.80148.90149.00149.10149.20149.30149.40149.50 Kickapoo Crk Br149.60 West St. OH Bridge149.70149.75 Main Street FL&B

149.80149.82 LAWNDALE ?? DE Passing 5,000 PS # 10 TO Facing Right149.86 Lawndale

149.90 UG Pipe150.00 East Lincoln Grain Stub Elec Lock Trailing Right150.10150.15 Lincoln Street - 2 Tracks Gates150.20150.30150.40150.50150.60150.70150.80150.90150.92 LAWNDALE END DE Passing #10 Elec Lk Trailing Right Lawndale150.96 151.00151.10151.20151.30151.40151.50151.60151.70151.80151.90152.00152.10152.18 TR 222 FL&B152.20152.30152.40152.50152.60152.70 UG Pipe152.80152.90 I-55 OH Bridge152.95 I-55 OH Bridge153.00153.10153.20153.30153.40153.46 TR 93 - 2 Tracks Gates153.47 Freight Siding Stub ??? Facing Right153.50 HO # 10153.51 HO Switch153.52 ATHOL DE Passing 10,010 PS # 20 TO Facing Right153.56 CPX 153/Athol N 2 - N, 

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-16 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

153.60 ATHOL 10,010153.70153.80153.90154.00154.10 UG Pipe154.20154.30154.40154.50154.60154.70154.80154.90 79 Bridge UG Bridge154.91 Freight Siding DE Passing ??? HO Switch Facing Right

154.92 79155.00 79155.10 79155.20 79155.28 Freight Siding Stub HO # 10 Facing Right

155.30 79155.33 Freight Siding Stub HO # 10 Facing Right

155.40 79155.50 79155.52 79 Freight Siding End DE Passing HO # 10 Trailing Right Siding Track

155.53 79155.60 40 Diamond? CNIC Crossing? CPX 156 4 - Al155.64 70 ATHOL END DE Passing PS # 20 TO Trailing Right Trailing Right

155.67 70 Diamond CRR Crossing 

155.69 70 Athol South155.70 70 END ??155.80 70155.88 70 Burlington Street (PED) None155.90 70155.95 70 Keokuk Street Cant. FL&B/Gates156.00 70156.09 70 Peoria Street (PED) None156.10 70156.16 70 Tremont Street Gates156.20 70156.30 70156.32 70 Pekin Street Gates156.38 70 Broadway Street Gates156.40 70 LINCOLN Lincoln Station-Amtrak156.45 70 Pulaski Street Gates156.50 70156.52 70 Clinton Street Gates156.60 70 Decatur Street Gates156.70 70156.74 70 Havana Siding Freight Stub ??? EL LK # 7 TO Facing Right156.76 70 Havnana Spur156.80 70156.90 79157.00 79157.10 79 9° 52'157.20 79 Limerick Bridge157.26 79 

157.30 79157.40 79 End157.50 79157.60 79 UG Pipe157.70 79 UG Pipe157.80 79157.90 79158.00 79158.10 79 Bridge Salt Creek Br158.20158.24 90 N End of Curve 18° 32'158.30 90158.40 90158.50 90158.60 90158.69 90 S End of Curve End158.70158.80158.90

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-17 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

159.00 UG Pipe159.10159.20159.30159.40 TR 128 Gates

159.50159.60159.70159.80159.90160.00160.05 

160.10160.20160.30160.40160.50160.60160.70160.80160.90161.00161.10161.20161.30 TR 149 A FL&B

161.40161.50161.60161.70161.80161.90162.00162.10162.11 

162.20162.30162.40162.50162.60162.70 UG Pipe162.80162.90163.00 163.10163.20163.30163.40 PED XING None 163.42 163.45 Main Street Gates

163.50163.60 UG Pipe

163.70163.80163.90164.00164.04 

164.10164.20164.30164.40164.50164.60164.70164.80164.90165.00165.10165.20 UG Pipe165.30165.40165.50165.60165.70165.80165.90166.00

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-18 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

166.07 Elkhart Grain DE Passing ??? PS # 10 TO Facing Right166.10166.16 166.20 Farm None

166.30166.31 HO w Sig

166.40166.50166.60166.70 Freight Siding DE Passing ??? Facing Right

166.78 90 N End of Curve 4° 20'166.80 90166.89 90 S End of Curve End166.90167.00167.10167.20 Freight Siding End DE Passing ??? ?? Trailing Right167.25167.30 Oglesby Street Cant. FL&B/Gates

167.40 UG Pipe

167.43 Elkhart Grain End DE Passing PS # 10 TO Trailing Right167.46 HO w Sig167.50167.60167.70167.80167.90168.00168.05 UG Pipe168.10168.20 UG Pipe168.30168.34 ELKHART DE Passing 9,625 PS # 20 TO Facing Right Two-

168.37 Elkhart North 168.40 ELKHART 9,625 CPX 168

168.50 TR 199 A - 2 Tracks Gates168.60168.70168.80168.90169.00169.10169.20169.30169.40169.50169.60169.70169.80 TR 50 A - 2 Tracks Gates169.90170.00170.10170.20170.30 UG Pipe170.35 CPX 170 Two -170.40 END170.42 ELKHART END DE Passing PS # 20 TO Trailing Right170.44 Elkhart South170.50170.60170.70170.80170.90171.00171.10 UG Pipe171.20171.30171.40171.50171.60171.70171.80171.90172.00172.10 UG Pipe172.20

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-19 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

172.30172.34 172.35 TR 5 FL&B

172.40 UG Pipe

172.50172.60172.70172.80 3° 0'172.90 PED XING None

172.95 PED XING None

173.00 Main Street Gates W Median End

173.10173.20173.30 Emergency Gates Barrier173.40173.50173.60173.70173.80173.90174.00174.10174.20174.30174.40174.50174.60174.70174.80174.90175.00175.10175.20175.30175.40175.50175.60175.70175.80 UG Pipe175.84 

175.90176.00176.10176.20176.30176.40 UG Pipe176.50176.60 176.70 TR 33/ Wolf Road FL&B176.80176.90177.00177.10177.20177.30 OH Hgwy177.32 OH Hgwy177.40 UG Pipe177.50177.60177.70177.80177.87 Andrew Road Gates177.90178.00178.10178.20178.30178.36 79 N End of Curve 33° 28'178.40 79178.50 79178.60 79178.70 79178.80 79178.90 79179.00 79179.01 79 S End of Curve End

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-20 
Milepost Orientation Increases from North to South Sidings and Switches Physical Characteristics S

Track Mile 

Post

Speed 

Restrictions 

(MPH) NonTilting 

Equip

Grade Crossing Locations 

(Single Track unless noted)

Grade Crossing 

Warning System Location Type Connection Length (FT) Switch Type/Number Orientation (North to South) Location Bridges & Struct. Grade Degeree of Curve Length of Curve Control Points 

179.08 UG Pipe179.10179.20179.30179.40179.49 179.50179.60 Carter Brothers (PVT) None UG Pipe

179.70179.80179.90180.00 79 Bridge180.10 79180.20 79180.30 79180.40 79180.50 79180.60 79 Sand Hill Road Gates180.70 79180.78 79 End of Project180.80180.90180.99 Ridgely North181.00181.10181.20181.30181.40181.50181.60181.65 HO Switch181.70 70181.80 70181.90 70182.00 70182.10 70182.20 70182.30 70182.40 70182.50 70182.60 70182.70182.80182.86 HO Switch Ridgely Yard

182.90182.95 RR Xing C&IM Ridgely

183.00183.07 Elec Lock Illinois Midland

183.10183.20183.30183.31 Ridgely South183.40183.50183.60183.70183.80183.90184.00184.10184.20184.30184.40184.50184.60184.70184.80184.90185.00

END Reference

Location Name - Passenger and/or Freight Access

Double Ended Passing Siding or Stub Ended

Data Sources Include: UP Timetable and Track Diagrams; and IDOT PTC Project CONOPs

PhysCharBaseEWEB.xls D-21 

































E-1

Appendix E: PTC Optimum Communications 

Timeout Study: Accident Descriptions

for

NAJPTC, UP Cab Signaling with ATS and 

Northeast Corridor ATC

Accident scenarios, descriptions and illustrations presented in this document 

were adapted from those prepared by:

Don Wiles and Lori M. Kaufman, Ph.D. 

Booz Allen Hamilton

By 

ENSCO, Inc.

ICF Consulting

For the purpose of characterizing accident scenarios for risk analysis

June 2008

Provision of this material does not imply concurrence of results/conclusions 

contained in this report by Booz Allen Hamilton or its employees.
E-2

PTC Optimum Communications Timeout Study: 

Accident Descriptions

Table of Contents

Part I: Overview and Approach

Part II: NAJPTC with Equipped and Unequipped Trains

Section 1: Head on collision between two locomotives heading active IDOT Corridor trains.

Section 2: Collision between two active IDOT Corridor trains: head (locomotive) with rear or side of second train.

Section 3: Collision between the head (locomotive) of an active IDOT Corridor train and intruding rail vehicle or vehicle lading.

Section 4: Other accident types involving a single active IDOT Corridor train

Part III: Cab Signaling and Automatic Train Stop (ATS)

Section 1: Head on collision between two locomotives heading active IDOT Corridor trains.

Section 2: Collision between two active IDOT Corridor trains: head (locomotive) with rear or side of second train.

Section 3: Collision between the head (locomotive) of an active IDOT Corridor train and intruding rail vehicle or vehicle lading.

Section 4: Other accident types involving a single active IDOT Corridor train

Part IV: Cab Signaling and Automatic Train Control (ATC)

Section 1: Head on collision between two locomotives heading active IDOT Corridor trains.

Section 2: Collision between two active IDOT Corridor trains: head (locomotive) with rear or side of second train.

Section 3: Collision between the head (locomotive) of an active IDOT Corridor train and intruding rail vehicle or vehicle lading.

Section 4: Other accident types involving a single active IDOT Corridor train
E-3

PTC Optimum Communications Timeout Study: 

Accident Descriptions

Part I: Overview and Approach
E-4

Train Control Systems Analyzed 

This Appendix presents an analysis of the response of each 

control system to each PTC-relevant accident scenario and 

scenario variants. The control systems are:

– NAJPTC – Positive Train Control system as proposed for application 

to the IDOT corridor, operated with a mix of equipped and 

unequipped trains.

– Cab Signals with ATS – Cab signal and train stop system without 

speed enforcement. All trains equipped.

– Cab Signals with ATC – Cab signal and automatic train control with 

speed enforcement as used on the Northeast Corridor (4-aspect 

signals). All trains equipped.
E-5

Organization of Analyses

The analysis of each train control system is presented in four sections

– Section 1: Head on collision between two locomotives heading active 

IDOT corridor trains

– Section 2: Side or rear-end collision between two active IDOT Corridor 

trains, where locomotive collides with rear or side of second train

– Section 3: Collision between the head (locomotive) of an active IDOT 

Corridor train and a rail vehicle or vehicle lading intruding from an adjacent 

track, including roll-outs, shifted loads and derailed vehicles.

– Section 4: Other accident types involving a single active IDOT test corridor 

train, comprising grade crossings, broken rails and diamond crossing 

accidents
E-6

Background

PTC is designed as an overlay system for CTC and “Dark Territory”

– On the IDOT line, it overlays CTC.

– Allows passenger trains to travel at 110 MPH in an operational environment shared 

with freight traffic

CTC only allows passenger trains to travel at 79 MPH

Automatic Train Control (ATC) and UP cab Signals with ATS allow 110 MPH traffic

Office of Safety selected UP Cab Signals with ATS and Northeast Corridor ATC as 

base cases because they allow 110 MPH operation, as does PTC.
E-7

Issues to be Considered in the Comparison Between NAJPTC, 

Cab Signals with ATS and ATC

How does the communications timeout limit the effectiveness of the NAJPTC system?

– Are situations created in NAJPTC that are not accounted for in the existing accident 

database?

– Are UP Cab Signal or ATC-preventable accidents created by NAJPTC?

– Is the severity of ATC or UP Cab Signal accidents increased relative to NAJPTC?

– Does NAJPTC prevent any accidents that are not prevented by UP Cab Signal or 

ATC?

For each accident scenario, is there a communications timeout value which makes 

NAJPTC equal to or better than UP Cab Signal or ATC?

Is there a communications timeout value that makes NAJPTC equal to or better than 

UP Cab Signal or ATC when considering each system across all accident scenarios?

What level of NAJPTC timeout is acceptable?
E-8

Accident Types (All Cases)

Head (locomotive) to head collision (can occur on siding or main)

Head to rear collision (can occur on siding or main)

Raking or side impact with an active train (e.g. train improperly leaving a siding)

Head to side collision or vice-versa with non-test-corridor crossing at a diamond

Fouling (e.g. cars or equipment rolled or otherwise intruding onto main)

Train to motor vehicle (e.g. grade crossing)

Overspeed derailment (e.g. train ignores permanent or Form A speed restriction)

Roadway worker/work zone incursion (e.g. train violates Form B authority limit)

Derailments can also occur from broken rails, which can be detected by track circuits in 

signal blocks ahead of the approaching train, but not in the block occupied by the 

NAJPTC equipped train. In case of communications failure, an NAJPTC-equipped train 

must rely on wayside signals to respond to a broken rail in approaching blocks.
E-9

PTC Optimum Communications Timeout Study: 

Accident Descriptions

Part II: NAJPTC with Equipped and Unequipped Trains
E-10

Assumptions for NAJPTC Case

 Bi-directional wayside signaling for all cases

 Route lock from control point to control point

 NAJPTC equipped trains cannot pass signals at danger (SPAD)

– NAJPTC train can never exceed last authority issued by system

 Work trains are equivalent to unequipped trains

 CTC track circuits provide block occupancy detection for all trains (NAJPTC equipped and 

unequipped) to the wayside and to the control center, but do not communicate directly to the train.

 NAJPTC, which is a CTC overlay, provides detection and communicates information to the 

locomotive via wireless, digital communications, for NAJPTC equipped trains only

 All NAJPTC equipment is operational and does not fail during operations over the route, except 

when NAJPTC is in Timeout due to a communications failure.

 NAJPTC is assumed to prevent all collisions between equipped trains, whether the system is in 

timeout or not. (Trains will always comply with the most recent authority received, which by definition 

cannot conflict with authorities issued to other NAJPTC-equipped trains in the vicinity) Therefore, no 

collision scenarios with two equipped trains are included in this assessment.
E-11

NAJPTC Operational Constraints

IDOT NAJPTC System Specifications Section 4.3.2.5

– SSR155: The IDOT NAJPTC system shall apply a Head-End Only (TBC) Temporary 

Speed Restriction between railroad operator-defined protection limits of a Point of 

Route Convergence located on controlled track and in the direction of an 

approaching communicating train when:

• SSR155.1: A non-communicating train occupies railroad operator defined limits 

adjacent to the Point of Convergence; and

• SSR155.2: Authority past the Point of Route Convergence is issued to a 

communicating train.

Application of SSR155

– When a non-communicating (NAJPTC unequipped) train is “near” a siding switch, a 

high-speed communicating (NAJPTC equipped) train will be slowed to 79 MPH while 

passing “near” the non-communicating train and over the switch.

– The 79 MPH restriction does not apply at crossover locations in multiple track 

territory unless the plant was lined for a crossover move.
E-12

Section 1: Head-On Collision Between Two 

Locomotives Heading Active IDOT Corridor Trains

Collision between train leaving uncontrolled siding and train on main track

Collision between train leaving controlled siding and train on main track.
E-13

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Unequipped Train on 

Uncontrolled Siding & NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC unequipped train leaving siding & NAJPTC equipped train entering 

block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; NAJPTC equipped 

train passing Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: Train will see Intermediate Signal change, timeout results in 

potentially late enforcement

– NAJPTC unequipped train entering main from siding: The train will be unaware of the 

approaching train

 Accident Type: Head-on collision between locomotives

 NAJPTC Benefit: Collision may be prevented or collision speed reduced

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

NAJPTC

UNEQUIPPED
E-14

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC unequipped train leaving siding & NAJPTC equipped train in block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped erroneously exits siding and enters main; NAJPTC equipped train has passed 

Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: NAJPTC does not use coded track circuit, therefore design, not timeout, 

impacts safety; timeout has no effect, The train will be unaware of the encroaching train

– NAJPTC unequipped train entering main line from siding: The train will be unaware of the approaching train

 Accident Type: Head-on collision between locomotives. See Section 2, Page E-26 for corresponding side impact 

scenario

 NAJPTC Risk Effect: Collision could be prevented or collision speed reduced

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

NAJPTC

UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Unequipped Train on 

Uncontrolled Siding & NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Main

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED
E-15

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC unequipped train erroneously leaving siding (SPAD); NAJPTC equipped train passing 

Intermediate Signal and approaching the Control Point

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding; NAJPTC equipped train on 

main passes Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: NAJPTC will detect the unequipped train when it shunts the main track, timeout 

results in potentially late enforcement

– NAJPTC unequipped train entering main from siding: The train will not be aware of the approaching train on the 

main

 Accident Type: Head-on collision between locomotives

 This and page E16 scenarios are probably the most common scenarios on this corridor. Almost all meets are at 

controlled sidings

 NAJPTC risk effect: Collision will be prevented or collision speed reduced

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → YELLOW

RED

Control Point Signal

UNEQUIPPED

NAJPTC

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Unequipped Train on Controlled 

(Passing) Siding & NAJPTC-Equipped on Main
E-16

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC unequipped train erroneously leaving siding (SPAD); NAJPTC equipped train 

entering the Control Point block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding; NAJPTC equipped 

train on main between Intermediate & Control Point Signals

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: NAJPTC System will detect the unequipped train when it shunts the main 

track, timeout results in potentially late enforcement

– NAJPTC unequipped train entering main from siding: The train will be unaware of the approaching train on 

the main

 Accident Type: Head-on collision between locomotives. See also Section 2, page E-27 for corresponding side 

impact scenario

 NAJPTC risk effect: Collision will be prevented or collision speed reduced

NAJPTC

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Unequipped Train on Controlled 

(Passing) Siding & NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Main

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

RED

Control Point Signal

UNEQUIPPED
E-17

Section 2: Collision Between Two Active IDOT 

Corridor Trains: Head (Locomotive) with Rear or 

Side of Second Train 

 Train rear-ends a stationary or slower moving train on main

 Train exiting uncontrolled siding in reverse. Collision on main with train traveling in same direction

 Train exiting uncontrolled siding. Collision on main with train traveling in same direction

 Train exiting uncontrolled siding, collides with side of train traveling in opposite direction.

 Train exiting controlled siding, collides with side of train traveling in opposite direction.

 Train exiting controlled siding. Collision with train traveling on main same direction
E-18

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Equipped Active Train Followed 

by NAJPTC-Unequipped Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC equipped train on main. Following unequipped train entering block 

(SPAD)

– Cause: Crew ignores intermediate signal

– Action: Following unequipped train passes RED Intermediate Signal on main. No warning 

possible

 Accident Type: Rear end collision. Locomotive of train on main strikes rear of train exiting siding

 NAJPTC Risk Effect : - None. However, it is rare for a freight train to rear-end a passenger train 

because passenger trains usually operate at higher speed.

Intermediate Signal

GREEN

Intermediate Signal

RED

NAJPTC UEQUIPPED

Intermediate Signal

YELLOW
E-19

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Uncontrolled 

Siding & NAJPTC-Unequipped Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC equipped train leaving siding (reverse move) & NAJPTC unequipped 

train entering block (SPAD)

– Cause: Crew ignores signal

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped passes RED Intermediate Signal on main; NAJPTC equipped train 

exiting siding

– NAJPTC unequipped train on main: continues movement at current speed

– NAJPTC equipped train entering main from siding: The train will be unaware of the approaching 

train

 Accident Type: Rear-end collision

 NAJPTC Risk effect: None, unequipped train cannot take preventative action.

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

RED

UNEQUIPPED

NAJPTC
E-20

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Unequipped Train on 

Uncontrolled Siding & NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC unequipped train leaving siding & NAJPTC equipped train entering 

block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; NAJPTC equipped 

train passing Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: Train will see Intermediate Signal change when exiting train 

reaches main track track-circuit, timeout results in potentially delayed enforcement

– NAJPTC unequipped train entering main from siding: The train will be unaware of the 

approaching train

 Accident Type: Rear-end collision. Train on main strikes rear of train exiting siding

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

NAJPTC

UNEQUIPPED
E-21

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC unequipped train leaving siding & NAJPTC equipped train in block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped erroneously exits siding and enters main; NAJPTC equipped train has passed 

Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: NAJPTC does not use coded track circuit, therefore design, not timeout, 

impacts safety; timeout has no effect, The train will be unaware of the encroaching train

– NAJPTC unequipped train entering main line from siding: The train will be unaware of the approaching train

 Accident Type: Rear-end, side or raking collision. Train on main strikes train exiting from siding.

 NAJPTC Risk effect: NAJPTC train already occupying block and cannot receive a warning. No preventative effect

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

NAJPTC

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Unequipped Train on 

Uncontrolled Siding & NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Main

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

UNEQUIPPED
E-22

 Accident Scenario: Unequipped train leaving siding & NAJPTC equipped train approaching intermediate signal

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: Unequipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; NAJPTC equipped train passed Intermediate 

Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: NAJPTC locomotive onboard equipment enforces braking to slow to stop train. 

Timeout will delay response

– Unequipped train on siding: continues unaware of approaching equipped train

 Accident Type: Rear-end, side or raking collision. Train exiting siding strikes train or vise-versa depending on 

relative position and speed of trains

 ATC Risk Effect: Collision may be prevented or closing speed of collision reduced, depending on the position of the 

two trains relative to the collision point

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Equipped Active Train on Main 

and Unequipped Train on Uncontrolled Siding

NAJPTC
E-23

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC Unequipped train leaving siding & NAJPTC equipped train in block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; NAJPTC equipped 

train has passed Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main. No action, NAJPTC cannot detect second train in block

– NAJPTC unequipped train on siding: continues unaware of approaching train

– Accident Type: Rear, side or raking collision. Train exiting siding strikes train or vise-versa 

depending on relative position and speed of trains

 NAJPTC Risk Effect: None, NAJPTC cannot detect violation

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN

Intermediate Signal

RED

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Equipped Active Train on Main 

and Unequipped Train on Uncontrolled Siding

NAJPTC
E-24

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC equipped train leaving siding & unequipped train approaching intermediate signal

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: Unequipped train erroneously passes intermediate signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on siding: NAJPTC locomotive onboard equipment enforces braking to slow to stop 

train, provided it is still in siding. Timeout will delay response. If NAJPTC equipped train has left siding and 

occupies main line block, it will be unaware of violation and cannot avoid collision 

– Unequipped train on continues unaware of equipped train leaving siding

 Accident Type: Rear-end, side or raking collision. Train exiting siding strikes train or vise-versa depending on 

relative position and speed of trains

 ATC Risk Effect: Collision could be prevented only if NAJPTC-equipped train has not left siding. NAJPTC would 

not give authority for train to enter block occupied by another train

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN

Intermediate Signal

RED

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Unequipped Active Train on Main 

and NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Uncontrolled Siding

NAJPTC
E-25

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC equipped train leaving siding & unequipped train in block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: NAJPTC equipped train ready to exit siding and unequipped train has passed 

Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC Unequipped train on main. No action, unequipped train would continue at same speed

– NAJPTC equipped train on siding: would not receive authority to leave siding

– Accident Type: Rear, side or raking collision. Train exiting siding strikes train or vise-versa 

depending on relative position and speed of trains

 NAJPTC Risk Effect: Accident would be prevented. NAJPTC would not receive authority to enter 

block occupied by another train

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN

Intermediate Signal

RED

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Unequipped Active Train on Main 

and NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Uncontrolled Siding

NAJPTC
E-26

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC unequipped train leaving siding & NAJPTC equipped train in block traveling in opposite 

direction

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped erroneously exits siding and enters main; NAJPTC equipped train has passed 

Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: NAJPTC does not use coded track circuit, therefore design, not timeout, 

impacts safety; timeout has no effect, The train will be unaware of the encroaching train

– NAJPTC unequipped train entering main line from siding: The train will be unaware of the approaching train

 Accident Type: Side or raking collision. Train exiting siding strikes train on main behind locomotive. See page E-14 

for corresponding head-on collision scenario

 NAJPTC Risk Effect: None. Train exits siding after locomotive of train on main has passed

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

NAJPTC

UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Unequipped Train on 

Uncontrolled Siding & NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Main

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED
E-27

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC unequipped train erroneously leaving siding (SPAD); NAJPTC equipped train 

entering the Control Point block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding; NAJPTC equipped 

train on main between Intermediate & Control Point Signals

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: NAJPTC System will detect the unequipped train when it shunts the main 

track, timeout results in potentially late enforcement

– NAJPTC unequipped train entering main from siding: The train will be unaware of the approaching train on 

the main

 Accident Type: Train exiting siding hits train on main behind locomotive. See also Section 1, page E-16 for 

corresponding head-on collision scenario

 NAJPTC risk effect: Limited – NAJPTC equipped train may not be able to slow or stop to prevent collision in 

spite of enforcement.

NAJPTC

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Unequipped Train on Controlled 

(Passing) Siding & NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Main

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

RED

Control Point Signal

UNEQUIPPED
E-28

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC unequipped train erroneously leaving siding (SPAD); NAJPTC equipped train passing 

Intermediate Signal and approaching the Control Point

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding; NAJPTC equipped train on 

main passes Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: The NAJPTC system will detect the unequipped train once it shunts the tracks, 

timeout results in potentially late enforcement on the NAJPTC equipped train

– NAJPTC unequipped train entering main from siding: The train will be unaware of the approaching train on the main.

 Accident Type: Rear-end; side or raking collision.

 NAJPTC Risk effect: NAJPTC equipped train on main could slow or stop before reaching collision point

RED

Control Point Signal

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → YELLOW

UNEQUIPPED

NAJPTC

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Unequipped Train on Controlled 

(Passing) Siding & NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Main
E-29

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC unequipped train erroneously leaving siding (SPAD); NAJPTC equipped train entering the 

Control Point block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal 

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding; NAJPTC equipped train on main 

between Intermediate & Control Point Signals

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: The NAJPTC System will detect the unequipped train once it shunts the track, 

timeout results in potentially late enforcement on the NAJPTC equipped train

– NAJPTC unequipped train entering main from siding: Once the Red Control Point Signal is passed the train will be 

unaware of the approaching train on the main

 Accident Type: Rear-end, side or raking collision

 NAJPTC Risk effect: NAJPTC equipped train on main could slow or stop before reaching collision point

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

RED

Control Point Signal

UNEQUIPPED

NAJPTC

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Unequipped Train on Controlled 

(Passing) Siding & NAJPTC-Equipped on Main
E-30

Section 3: Collision Between the Head (Locomotive) 

of an Active IDOT Test Corridor Train and an 

Intruding Rail Vehicle or Vehicle Lading

Unsecured or mishandled rail vehicle rolling onto main track, or positioned “not in clear” 

at siding or industry track switch

– Active train approaching signal block in which intrusion occurred

– Active train in same block as intrusion

Intrusions into clearance envelope of main track from adjacent track away from 

connecting turnout

– Derailed vehicle on adjacent track

– Shifted load on vehicle on adjacent track
E-31

Accident Scenario: Equipment on Uncontrolled Siding & 

NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Main

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

NAJPTC

CAR

 Accident Scenario: Car rolls from siding onto main (assume car shunts track circuit) & NAJPTC 

equipped train entering block

– Cause: Car(s) not properly secured 

– Action: Car(s) erroneously exit siding and enter main; NAJPTC equipped train passing Intermediate 

signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: NAJPTC System will detect the car, timeout results in potentially 

late enforcement

 Accident Type: Intrusion collision – locomotive of active train strikes car or cut of cars exiting siding

 NAJPTC risk effect: NAJPTC equipped train brakes, avoiding a collision or reducing collision speed
E-32

Accident Scenario: Equipment on Uncontrolled Siding & 

NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Main

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

RED Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

NAJPTC

CAR

 Accident Scenario: Car rolls from siding onto main (assume car shunts track circuit) & NAJPTC 

equipped train entering block

– Cause: Car(s) not properly secured 

– Action: Car(s) erroneously exit siding and enter main; NAJPTC equipped train has passed the 

Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: NAJPTC does not use coded track circuit, therefore design, not 

timeout, impacts safety; timeout has no effect, The train will be unaware of the encroaching train

 Accident Type: Intrusion collision – locomotive of active train strikes car or cut of cars exiting siding

 NAJPTC risk effect: None, NAJPTC cannot detect a second interruption to the track circuit in the same 

block.
E-33

Accident Scenario: Equipment on Controlled Siding & 

NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Main

RED

Control Point Signal

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → YELLOW

CAR

NAJPTC

 Accident Scenario: Car rolls from siding onto main (assume car shunts track circuit) & NAJPTC 

equipped train entering block between Intermediate and Control Point Signal

– Cause: Car not properly secured 

– Action: Cars erroneously exits siding and enters main; NAJPTC equipped train passing Intermediate 

Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: The NAJPTC System will detect the car when it shunts the main 

track, timeout results in potentially late enforcement

 Accident Type: Intrusion collision – locomotive of active train strikes car or cut of cars exiting siding

 NAJPTC risk effect: NAJPTC equipped train will detect intrusion and slow or stop before collision
E-34

Accident Scenario: Equipment on Controlled Siding & 

NAJPTC-Equipped Train on Main

RED

Control Point Signal

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

CAR

NAJPTC

 Accident Scenario: Car rolls from siding onto main (assume car shunts track circuit) & NAJPTC 

equipped train entering block

– Cause: Car(s) not properly secured 

– Action: Car(s) erroneously exit siding and enter main; NAJPTC equipped train passing Control Point 

Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: The NAJPTC system will detect the car when it shunts the main 

track, timeout will result in a delay in enforcement

 Accident Type: Intrusion collision – locomotive of active train strikes car or cut of cars exiting siding

 NAJPTC risk effect: Active train will receive stop command, NAJPTC will ensure braking to avoid 

collision or reduce collision speed
E-35

Accident Scenario: Car With Shifted Load on Adjacent Track 

& NAJPTC-Equipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Shifted load on car on adjacent track fouls main track. ATC train approaching 

Intermediate signal at block entry

– Cause: Shifted load for any reason

– Action: Derailed shifted equipment fouls main track; NAJPTC equipped train passing Intermediate 

Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: IF shifted load shunts coded track circuit on main, NAJPTC 

locomotive will receive stop command and train will break whether or not Engineer responds. 

Timeout would delay response. Note: shifted load would have to fall and shunt track circuit to be 

detected, which is unlikely.

 Accident Type: Intrusion – main is fouled away from connecting switch

 NAJPTC Risk Effect: Limited chance of avoiding collision or reducing speed before the collision point

Intermediate Signal Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

NAJPTC

CAR
E-36

Accident Scenario: Car With Shifted Load on Adjacent Track 

& NAJPTC-Equipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Shifted load on car on adjacent track fouls main track. ATC-equipped train in same 

block as intrusion

– Cause: Shifted load for any reason

– Action: Derailed car fouls main track; NAJPTC equipped train passing Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: No effect – NAJPTC cannot detect track circuit interruption in the 

block occupied by the train. No separate intrusion detection system available

 Accident Type: Intrusion – main is fouled away from connecting switch

 NAJPTC Risk Effect: None – NAJPTC cannot detect track circuit interruption in the same block

Intermediate Signal Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

NAJPTC

CAR
E-37

Accident Scenario: Derailed Car on Adjacent Track & 

NAJPTC-Equipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Car or cars derail on adjacent track and foul main track. NAJPTC train approaching 

intermediate signal.

– Cause: Derailment form any track or equipment defect or human error

– Action: Derailed car(s) foul main track; NAJPTC equipped train approaching Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: IF derailed car shunts track circuit on main, NAJPTC locomotive 

NAJPTC locomotive will receive stop command and train will break whether or not Engineer 

responds. Timeout would delay response. 

– Accident Type: Intrusion – main is fouled away from connecting switch

 NAJPTC Risk effect: Could prevent a collision or reduce NAJPTC-equipped train speed at the 

intrusion, IF derailed car shunts main track circuit

Intermediate Signal Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

NAJPTC
E-38

Accident Scenario: Derailed Car on Adjacent Track & 

NAJPTC-Equipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Car or cars derail on adjacent track and foul main track. NAJPTC train in same 

block as intrusion.

– Cause: Derailment form any track or equipment defect or human error

– Action: Derailed car(s) foul main track; NAJPTC equipped train approaching Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: No response, even IF derailed car shunts coded track circuit on 

main. NAJPTC locomotive cannot detect track circuit interruption in the block occupied by the train. 

No separate intrusion detection system available

– Accident Type: Intrusion – main is fouled away from connecting switch

 NAJPTC Risk Effect: No effect NAJPTC cannot detect track circuit interruption in same block

Intermediate Signal Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

NAJPTC
E-39

Section 4: Other Accident Types Involving a 

Single Active IDOT Test Corridor Train

Collision with a highway vehicle at a grade crossing

Collision with crossing train at a diamond crossing with another railroad

Work zone intrusion or collision with work equipment (Form A)

Over speed derailment at temporary (Form B) or permanent speed restriction

Broken rail derailment
E-40

 Accident Scenario: Vehicle crosses tracks in front of NAJPTC equipped train

– Cause: Human error by highway vehicle driver

– Action: Vehicle driver violates grade crossing

– NAJPTC provides feedback monitoring to NAJPTC equipped train; radio based advanced activation required 

because track circuit based activation would not respond in time for 110 MPH operation (tells gate to activate & 

train slows); timeout results in potentially late enforcement

 Accident Type: Train to highway vehicle. Potential for derailment following grade crossing impact, especially with 

heavy truck

 NAJPTC risk effect: NAJPTC could cause train to slow in case of defective crossing warning system, preventing 

collision or reducing collision speed.

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Equipped Train at a Grade 

Crossing

Roadway

NAJPTC

V

E

H

I

C

L

E
E-41

Control Point Signal

RED

NAJPTC

UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Equipped & Unequipped Trains 

at a Diamond

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC unequipped train erroneously enters diamond (SPAD)

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and enters diamond; NAJPTC 

equipped train on main passes Intermediate Signal

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: NAJPTC System will detect the unequipped train, timeout results 

in potentially late enforcement

– NAJPTC unequipped train on crossing track: The unequipped train will be unaware of the 

approaching train

 Accident Type: Side collision between locomotive of one train and car of the second train.

 NAJPTC risk effect: NAJPTC will prevent collision or reduce collision speed

Control Point Signal Control Point Signal

YELLOW → RED

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → YELLOW
E-42

UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Equipped & Unequipped Trains 

at a Diamond

Control Point Signal

RED

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

NAJPTC

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC unequipped train erroneously enters Diamond (SPAD)

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal

– Action: NAJPTC unequipped train passes RED Control Point Signal; NAJPTC equipped train on 

main between Intermediate and Control Point Signals

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: NAJPTC System will detect the unequipped train, timeout results 

in potentially late enforcement

– NAJPTC unequipped train on crossing track: continues movement at current speed

 Accident Type: Side collision between the locomotive of one train and a car of the second train

 NAJPTC Risk effect: NAJPTC will cause active train to slow, preventing the collision or reducing 

collision speed.
E-43

 Accident Scenario: Train contacts roadway worker(s) or hi-rail or work equipment, work zone protected by 

control point signal

– Cause: Human error

– Action: Train exceeds authority or work crew/equipment operating outside of authority

– NAJPTC Case 1: Form B filed prior to train departure; authority limit downloaded to locomotive prior to 

departure from yard; train enforced at work zone limit

– NAJPTC Case 2: Work zone created after train departure; dispatcher must wait for acknowledgement 

from NAJPTC onboard equipment prior to allowing work crew on track; train enforced at work zone limit. 

If very late notification, timeout could delay response to work zone limits

 Accident Type: Train to Work Crew/Hi-Rail/Work Equipment

 NAJPTC risk effect: Most work zone incursions will be prevented, may not prevent injury to work crew 

outside authority limits.

Accident Scenario: Active NAJPTC-Equipped Train and Work 

Crew/Hi-Rail/Work Equipment

RED

Control Point Signal

Control Point Signal

RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

NAJPTC

Control Point Signal

RED

WORK ZONE
E-44

 Accident Scenario: Train contacts roadway worker(s) or hi-rail or work equipment, work zone not protected 

by control point signal

– Cause: Human error

– Action: Train exceeds authority or work crew/equipment operating outside of authority

– NAJPTC Case 1: Form B filed prior to train departure; authority limit downloaded to locomotive prior to 

departure from yard; train enforced at work zone limit

– NAJPTC Case 2: Work zone created after train departure; dispatcher must wait for acknowledgement 

from NAJPTC onboard equipment prior to allowing work crew on track; train enforced at work zone limit. 

If very late notification, timeout could delay response to work zone limits

 Accident Type: Train to Work Crew/Hi-Rail/Work Equipment

 NAJPTC risk effect: Most work zone incursions will be prevented

Accident Scenario: Active NAJPTC-Equipped Train and Work 

Crew/Hi-Rail/Work Equipment

Intermediate Signal

RED

NAJPTC

Control Point Signal

GREEN

WORK ZONE
E-45

Accident Scenario: NAJPTC-Equipped Train Derails Due To 

Overspeed

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC equipped train derails due to overspeed

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores speed restriction

– Action: NAJPTC equipped train ignores speed restriction (permanent or Form A) and accelerates 

or maintains current speed

– NAJPTC Case 1: Form A filed prior to train departure; authority limit downloaded to locomotive 

prior to departure from yard; train enforced at speed zone limit

– NAJPTC Case 2: Form A posted after train departure; timeout results in potentially late 

enforcement

 Accident Type: Overspeed Derailment

 NAJPTC risk effect: NAJPTC will prevent most over speed derailments

Intermediate Signal

RED

NAJPTC

Control Point Signal

GREEN

PERMANENT OR “FORM A” SPEED RESTRICTION
E-46

Accident Scenario: Active NAJPTC-Equipped Train Derails 

Due To Broken Rail (Complete Break, Interrupting Track 

Circuit)

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC equipped train derails due to broken rail. Train approaching 

intermediate signal

– Cause: Broken rail in next signal block

– Action: NAJPTC equipped train passes over broken rail and derails

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: NAJPTC locomotive onboard equipment will receive a stop 

command, causing the train to slow regardless of whether Engineer response 

– Accident Type: Broken Rail Derailment

 NAJPTC Risk Effect: Train could slow or stop before reaching break, depending on break and train 

location relative to intermediate signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

NAJPTC

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Broken Rail
E-47

Accident Scenario: Active NAJPTC-Equipped Train Derails 

Due To Broken Rail (Complete Break, Interrupting Track 

Circuit)

 Accident Scenario: NAJPTC equipped train derails due to broken rail. Train has passed 

intermediate signal and entered same block as break.

– Cause: Broken rail in same signal block

– Action: NAJPTC equipped train passes over broken rail and derails

– NAJPTC equipped train on main: No response. NAJPTC cannot detect loss of track circuit in 

same block

 Accident Type: Broken Rail Derailment

 NAJPTC Risk Effect: None

Intermediate Signal

RED

NAJPTC

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Broken Rail
E-48

PTC Optimum Communications Timeout Study: 

Accident Descriptions

Part III: Cab Signaling and Automatic Train Stop (ATS), 

without Speed Enforcement
E-49

Assumptions for Base Case: Automatic Cab Signal (ACS) 

with Automatic Train Stop

 Bi-directional signaling for all cases

 Route lock from control point to control point

 All except two passing sidings are track-circuited

 All IDOT test corridor passenger and freight trains headed by a locomotive are equipped with ACS 

and ATS

 Work trains are equipped with cab signal when headed by conventional locomotive. Self propelled 

work equipment units (e.g. tamping machine) are unequipped

 Cab signals use coded track circuits to provide detection and communicate information to an 

inductive pickup on the locomotive via a pulsed 60 Hz carrier injected into the rail

 Cab signal circuits are directional in that they can detect an interruption or shunt of the circuit ahead 

of an approaching train in the same signal block

 CTC track circuits provide detection to the wayside and control wayside signals, but do not 

communicate to the train

 All cab signal equipment operational and does not fail during operations over the route
E-50

Section 1: Head-On Collision Between Two 

Locomotives Heading Active IDOT Corridor Trains

Collision between train leaving uncontrolled siding and train on main track

Collision between train leaving controlled siding and train on main track.
E-51

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main

 Accident Scenario: ATS-equipped train leaving siding without authority, & ATS equipped train entering block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATS equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATS equipped train passing Intermediate Signal

– ATS equipped train on main: ATS locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop capability which 

requires the Engineer to acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty 

application, the absence of the carrier will continue to show a Restricting Aspect in the cab

– ATS equipped train entering main from siding: The UP Cab Signal will continue to display a Restricting Aspect.

 Accident Type: Head-on collision between locomotives

 ACS/ATS risk effect: Could prevent some collisions or reduce collision speed

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATS

ATS
E-52

 Accident Scenario: ATS-equipped train leaving siding & ATS-equipped train in block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATS equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATS equipped train passed Intermediate 

Signal

– ATS equipped train on main: ATS locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop capability 

which requires the Engineer to acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a 

penalty application.

– ATS equipped train on siding: Upon entering main, loss of speed code results in a Restricting Aspect. ATS 

locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop capability which requires the Engineer to 

acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application 

 Accident Type: Head-on collision between locomotives. See also alternative scenario in Section 2, page E-62

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: Could prevent a few collisions or reduce collision speed

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

RED Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

ATS

ATS

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main
E-53

 Accident Scenario: ATS-equipped train erroneously leaving siding (SPAD); ATS-equipped train passing Intermediate 

Signal and approaching the Control Point

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal

– Action: ATS equipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding; ATS equipped train on main passes 

Intermediate Signal

– ATS-equipped train on main: When the train from the siding shunts the main track, ATS will change from Clear to 

Approach and sound a warning the must be acknowledged to avoid penalty brake. When the train passes the 

Intermediate Signal, ATS will change from Approach to Restricting and sound an additional warning which must be 

acknowledged

– ATS equipped train entering main from siding: ATS will display a continuous Restricting Aspect

 Accident Type: Head-on collision between locomotives. 

 This and page E-10 scenarios probably the most common scenarios on this corridor. Almost all meets are at controlled 

sidings

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: Could prevent some collisions or reduce collision speed

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → YELLOW

RED

Control Point Signal

ATS

ATS

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Controlled (Passing) Siding and Main
E-54

 Accident Scenario: ATS equipped train erroneously leaving siding (SPAD); ATS equipped train entering the Control Point 

block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATS equipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding; ATS equipped train on main between 

Intermediate & Control Point Signals

– ATS equipped train on main: When the train from the siding shunts the main track, ATS will change from Clear to 

Restricting and sound a warning the must be acknowledged to avoid penalty brake. 

– ATS equipped train on siding: ATS will display a continuous Restricting Aspect in the cab

 Accident Type: Head-on collision between locomotives. See also alternative scenario in Section 2, Page E-63

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: Could reduce collision speed in some cases. Full prevention unlikely.

ATS

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Controlled (Passing) Siding & Main

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

RED

Control Point Signal

ATS
E-55

Section 2: Collision Between Two Active IDOT 

Corridor Trains: Head (Locomotive) with Rear or 

Side of Second Train 

 Train rear-ends a stationary or slower moving train on main

 Train exiting uncontrolled siding in reverse. Collision on main with train traveling in same direction

 Train exiting uncontrolled siding. Collision on main with train traveling in same direction

 Train exiting uncontrolled siding, collides with side of train traveling in opposite direction.

 Train exiting controlled siding, collides with side of train traveling in opposite direction.

 Train exiting controlled siding. Collision with train traveling on main same direction
E-56

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains 

Following One Another on Main

 Accident Scenario: Two ATS equipped trains on main. Following ATS-equipped train entering block (SPAD)

– Cause: Crew ignores intermediate signal

– Action: Following ATS equipped train passes RED Intermediate signal on main and rear-ends preceding train

– Lead ATS equipped train: no change

– Following ATS equipped train on main: ATS will sound an audible alert when the train passes the previous 

Intermediate Signal and show a downgraded signal aspect. Engineer must acknowledge warning or ATS applies 

a penalty brake.

 Accident Type: Rear end collision. Locomotive of train on main strikes rear of train exiting siding

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect : Reduces chance of SPAD. Following train could either stop or slow to reduce collision speed 

or prevent collision. 

Intermediate Signal

GREEN

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATS ATS

Intermediate Signal

YELLOW
E-57

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main

 Accident Scenario: ATS equipped train leaving siding (reverse move) & ATS equipped train entering block (SPAD)

– Cause: Crew ignores intermediate signal

– Action: ATS equipped train passes RED Intermediate Signal on main; ATS equipped train exiting siding

– ATS equipped train on main: ATS will sound an auditable alert when the train passes the previous Intermediate 

Signal which the engineer must acknowledge within 8 seconds or ACS applies a penalty brake application. If 

engineer continues, the absence of the carrier continues to show a Restricting Aspect in the cab

– ATS equipped train entering main from siding: The train will be unaware of the approaching train until locomotive 

reaches the main track

 Accident Type: Rear end collision. Locomotive of train on main strikes rear of train exiting siding

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: In most cases ATS train on main will respond to warning and apply brakes. Could reduce 

collision speed and in some cases will prevent a collision

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATS

ATS
E-58

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main

 Accident Scenario: ATS equipped train backing from siding & ATS equipped train entering block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew of train exiting siding ignores signal

– Action: ATS equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATS equipped train passing Intermediate Signal

– ACS equipped train on main: ATS locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop capability which 

requires the Engineer to acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty 

application, the absence of the carrier will continue to show a Restricting Aspect in the cab

– ATS equipped train backing from siding: The train will be unaware of the approaching train 

 Accident Type: rear-end collision. Train on main strikes rear of train exiting siding

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: In most cases ACS train on main will respond to warning and apply brakes preventing a collision 

or reducing collision speed

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATS

ATS
E-59

 Accident Scenario: ATS equipped train backing from siding & ATS equipped train in block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATS equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATS equipped train has passed 

Intermediate Signal

– ATS equipped train on main: ATS locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop capability 

which requires the Engineer to acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a 

penalty application.

– ATS equipped train on siding: The train will be unaware of the approaching train

 Accident Type: Rear-end, side or raking collision. Train on main strikes rear of train exiting siding, OR train on 

siding strikes side of train on main, behind the locomotive.

 ACS/ATS Risk effect: In most cases, ATS train on main will attempt to slow to reduce collision speed. Collision 

avoidance unlikely.

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

RED Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

ATS

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main

ATS
E-60

 Accident Scenario: ATS equipped train leaving siding & ATS equipped train approaching intermediate signal

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATS equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATS-equipped train passed Intermediate 

Signal

– ATS equipped train on main: ATS locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to acknowledge 

changed signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application.

– ATS-equipped train on siding: Upon entering main, loss of speed code results in a Restricting Aspect. locomotive 

onboard equipment requires the Engineer to acknowledge warning within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty 

application 

 Accident Type: Rear, side or raking collision. Train exiting siding strikes train or vise-versa depending on relative 

position and speed of trains

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: Collision may be prevented or closing speed of collision reduced, depending on the position 

of the two trains relative to the collision point

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

ATS

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main

ATS
E-61

 Accident Scenario: ATS equipped train leaving siding & ATS equipped train in block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATS equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATS-equipped train passed Intermediate 

Signal

– ATS equipped train on main: ATS locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to acknowledge 

restricting speed aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application.

– ATS equipped train on siding: Upon entering main, loss of speed code results in a Restricting Aspect. ATS 

locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to acknowledge aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a 

penalty application 

 Accident Type: Rear, side or raking collision. Train exiting siding strikes train or vise-versa depending on relative 

position and speed of trains

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: Collision may be prevented (unlikely) or closing speed of collision reduced, depending on the 

position of the two trains relative to the collision point

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN

Intermediate Signal

RED

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

ATS

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main

ATS
E-62

 Accident Scenario: ATS-equipped train leaving siding & ATS-equipped train in block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATS-equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ACS-equipped train passed Intermediate 

Signal

– ATS-equipped train on main: ATS locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop capability 

which requires the Engineer to acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a 

penalty application.

– ATS-equipped train on siding: Upon entering main, loss of speed code results in a Restricting Aspect. ATS 

locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop capability which requires the Engineer to 

acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application 

 Accident Type: Side or raking collision. Train exiting siding strikes train on main behind locomotive. See also 

scenario variant in Section 1 Page E-53

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: In most cases ATS will result in lowered collision speed, but unlikely to prevent collision

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

RED Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

ATS

ATS

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main
E-63

 Accident Scenario: ATS equipped train erroneously leaving siding (SPAD); ATS equipped train entering the Control Point 

block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATS equipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding; ATS equipped train on main between 

Intermediate & Control Point Signals

– ATS equipped train on main: When the train from the siding shunts the main track, ATS will change from Clear to 

Restricting and sound a warning the must be acknowledged to avoid penalty brake. 

– ATS equipped train on siding: ATS will display a continuous Restricting Aspect in the cab

 Accident Type: Side or raking collision. Locomotive of train exiting siding strikes train on main behind locomotive. See 

also alternative scenario in Section 1, Page E-55

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: In most cases collision will be at reduced speed or will be prevented, depending on main track 

train location relative to siding switch.

ATS

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Controlled (Passing) Siding & Main

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

RED

Control Point Signal

ATS
E-64

 Accident Scenario: ATS equipped train erroneously leaves siding (SPAD); ATS equipped train on main passing Intermediate 

Signal and approaching the Control Point

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATS equipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding; ATS equipped train on main has not passed the 

Intermediate Signal

– ATS equipped train on main: When the train from the siding shunts the main track, ATS will change from Clear to Approach 

and sound a warning the must be acknowledged to avoid penalty brake. When the train passes the Intermediate Signal ATS 

will change from Approach to Restricting and sound an additional warning which must be acknowledged

– ATS equipped train entering main from siding: Once the Control Point Signal is passed the train will be unaware of the 

approaching train on the main

 Accident Type: Rear-end, side or raking collision. Train on main strikes rear of train exiting siding OR either train strikes the other 

behind the locomotive

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: In most cases ATS will prevent collision or reduce collision speed, depending on location of main track train 

relative to switch

RED

Control Point Signal

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → YELLOW

ATS

ATS

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Controlled (Passing) Siding & Main
E-65

 Accident Scenario: ATS unequipped train erroneously leaving siding (SPAD); ATS equipped train entering the Control 

Point block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal 

– Action: ATS unequipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding; ATS equipped train on main 

between Intermediate & Control Point Signals

– ATS-equipped train on main: When the train from the siding shunts the main track, ATS will change from Clear to 

Restricting and sound a warning the must be acknowledged to avoid penalty brake. 

– ATS-equipped train entering main from siding: Once the Control Point Signal is passed the train will be unaware of 

the approaching train on the main

 Accident Type: Rear-end, side or raking collision. Depending on relative train position, the train on the main could strike 

the rear of the train exiting the siding OR either train could strike the other behind the locomotive 

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: Will prevent collision or reduce collision speed in most cases, depending on location of the main 

track train relative to siding switch

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

RED

Control Point Signal

ATS

ATS

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Controlled (Passing) Siding & Main
E-66

 Accident Scenario: ATS-equipped active train on main ignores Control Point signal (SPAD); second ATS-equipped 

active train leaving siding

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal 

– Action: ATS equipped train on main passes RED Control Point Signal; ATS equipped train correctly leaving siding 

under clear Control Point signal.

– ATS equipped train on main: Engineer must initiate braking to reduce speed to restricting after passing Intermediate 

signal to avoid penalty braking. 

– ATS equipped train entering main from siding: No restriction

 Accident Type: Rear-end, side or raking collision. Depending on relative train position, the train on the main could strike 

the rear of the train exiting the siding OR either train could strike the other behind the locomotive

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: Reduces chance that train on main will pass red control point signal; train on siding cannot slow 

to avoid collision or reduce collision speed until after train on main passes RED signal.

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

GREEN

Control Point Signal

ATS

ATS

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Trains on 

Controlled (Passing) Siding & Main
E-67

Section 3: Collision Between the Head (Locomotive) 

of an Active IDOT Test Corridor Train and an 

Intruding Rail Vehicle or Vehicle Lading

Unsecured or mishandled rail vehicle rolling onto main track, or positioned “not in clear 

at siding or industry track switch

– Active train approaching signal block in which intrusion occurred

– Active train in same block as intrusion

Intrusions into clearance envelope of main track from adjacent track away from 

connecting turnout

– Derailed vehicle on adjacent track

– Shifted load on vehicle on adjacent track
E-68

Accident Scenario: Cars on Uncontrolled Siding & ACS/ATSEquipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Car rolls from siding onto main (assume car shunts track circuit) & ATS-equipped train 

entering block

– Cause: Car or cut of cars not properly secured, not positioned in clear or mishandled during switching 

operations

– Action: Car erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATS-equipped train passing Intermediate Signal

– ATS-equipped train on main: ATS locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop capability 

which requires the Engineer to acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent 

a penalty application

 Accident Type: Intrusion – locomotive of active train strikes car or cut of cars

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: In most cases active train on main will respond to warning and start slowing to prevent 

collision or reduce collision speed

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATS

CAR
E-69

Accident Scenario: Equipment on Uncontrolled Siding & 

ACS/ATS-Equipped Train on Main

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

RED Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

ATS

CAR

 Accident Scenario: Car rolls from siding (assume car shunts track circuit) & ATS-equipped train in block

– Cause: Car or cut of cars not properly secured, not positioned in clear or mishandled during switching 

operations

– Action: Car(s) erroneously exit siding and enters main; ATS-equipped train has passed the Intermediate 

Signal

– ATS-equipped train on main: The loss of pulsed carrier results in a Restricting Aspect. ATS locomotive 

onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop capability which requires the Engineer to 

acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application 

 Accident Type: Intrusion – locomotive of active train strikes car or cut of cars

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: In most cases, Engineer of active train will initiate braking to reduce collision speed 

or prevent collision, depending on speeds and location of train relative to switch
E-70

Accident Scenario: Equipment on Controlled Siding & 

ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Train on Main

RED

Control Point Signal

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → YELLOW

CAR

ATS

 Accident Scenario: Car or cut of cars rolls from siding onto main (assume car shunts track circuit) & ATS 

equipped train entering block between Intermediate and Control Point Signal

– Cause: Car not properly secured, or not parked in clear or mishandles during switching.

– Action: Car erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATS equipped train passing Intermediate Signal

– ATS equipped train on main: When the car from the siding shunts the main track, ATS will change from 

Clear to Approach and sound a warning the must be acknowledged to avoid penalty brake. When the train 

passes the Intermediate Signal, ATS will change from Approach to Restricting and sound an additional 

warning which must be acknowledged

 Accident Type: Intrusion collision: locomotive of active train strikes cars or cut of cars exiting siding

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: In most cases Engineer of active train on main will initiate braking in response to 

warning to prevent collision or reduce collision speed.
E-71

Accident Scenario: Equipment on Controlled Siding & 

ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Train on Main

RED

Control Point Signal

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

CAR

ATS

 Accident Scenario: Car rolls from siding (assume car shunts track circuit) & ATS equipped train entering 

block

– Cause: Car or cut of cars not properly secured

– Action: Car erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATS-equipped train passing control Point Signal

– ATS-equipped train on main: When the car from the siding shunts the main track, ATS will change from 

Clear to Restricting and sound a warning the must be acknowledged to avoid penalty brake. 

 Accident Type: Intrusion collision: locomotive of active train strikes car or cut of cars

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: In most cases Engineer of active train on main will initiate braking in response to 

warning to reduce collision speed or possible prevent collision
E-72

Accident Scenario: Car With Shifted Load on Adjacent Track 

& ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Shifted load on car on adjacent track fouls main track

– Cause: Shifted load for any reason

– Action: Derailed car fouls main track; ATS equipped train passing Intermediate Signal

– ATS-equipped train on main: IF derailed car shunts track circuit on main, ATS locomotive onboard 

equipment provides an automatic train stop capability which requires the Engineer to acknowledge a 

downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application. Note: shifted load 

would have to fall and shunt track circuit to be detected, which is unlikely.

 Accident Type: Intrusion – main is fouled away from connecting switch

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: Very limited chance of avoiding collision or reducing collision speed

Intermediate Signal Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATS

CAR
E-73

Accident Scenario: Car With Shifted Load on Adjacent Track 

& ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Shifted load on car on adjacent track fouls main track. ATS Equipped train in same 

block as intrusion

– Cause: Shifted load for any reason

– Action: Derailed car fouls main track; ATS-equipped train passing Intermediate Signal

– ATS-equipped train on main: IF shifted load shunts coded track circuit on main, ATS locomotive 

onboard equipment requires the Engineer to acknowledge restricting aspect (20 mph) within 8 

seconds to prevent a penalty application. Note: shifted load would have to fall and shunt track circuit 

to be detected, which is unlikely.

 Accident Type: Intrusion – main is fouled away from connecting switch

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: Very limited chance of avoiding collision or reducing collision speed

Intermediate Signal Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATS

CAR
E-74

Accident Scenario: Derailed Car on Adjacent Track & 

ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Car or cars derailed on adjacent track and fouls main track

– Cause: Derailment form any track or equipment defect or human error

– Action: Derailed car fouls main track; ATS-equipped train passing Intermediate Signal

– ATS equipped train on main: IF derailed car shunts track circuit on main, ATS locomotive onboard 

equipment provides an automatic train stop capability which requires the Engineer to acknowledge a 

downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application

 Accident Type: Intrusion – main is fouled away from connecting switch

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: Could prevent a collision or reduce ACS-equipped train speed at the intrusion, IF 

derailed car shunts main track circuit

Intermediate Signal Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATS
E-75

Accident Scenario: Derailed Car on Adjacent Track & 

ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Car or cars derail on adjacent track and foul main track. ATS train in same block as 

intrusion.

– Cause: Derailment form any track or equipment defect or human error

– Action: Derailed car(s) foul main track; ATS-equipped train approaching Intermediate Signal

– ATS-equipped train on main: IF derailed car shunts coded track circuit on main, ATS locomotive 

onboard equipment requires the Engineer to acknowledge restricted aspect within 8 seconds to 

prevent a penalty application

 Accident Type: Intrusion – main is fouled away from connecting switch

 ATC/ATS Risk Effect: Could prevent possibly a collision or reduce ATS-equipped train speed at the 

intrusion, depending on train location relative to intrusion AND IF derailed car shunts main track circuit

Intermediate Signal Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATS
E-76

Section 4: Other Accident Types Involving a 

Single Active IDOT Test Corridor Train

Collision with crossing train at a diamond crossing with another railroad

Work zone intrusion or collision with work equipment (Form A)

Over speed derailment at temporary (Form B) or permanent speed restriction

Broken rail derailment
E-77

 Accident Scenario: Vehicle crosses tracks in front of ATS-equipped train

– Cause: Human error by vehicle driver, or vehicle stalled on crossing, or defective crossing warning system

– Action: Vehicle in path of train on crossing

– ATS-equipped train has no grade crossing communications within cab that can alert locomotive to presence of 

vehicle

 Accident Type: Train to highway vehicle. Potential for derailment following grade crossing impact, especially with 

heavy trucks.

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect - None. ACS does not communicate with grade crossing systems

Roadway

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active Train at a Grade 

Crossing

ATS

V

E

H

I

C

L

E
E-78

Control Point Signal

RED

ATS

UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active IDOT Corridor 

Train with Unequipped Train of Another Railroad at a Diamond

 Accident Scenario: Crossing un-equipped train erroneously enters diamond (SPAD)

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal

– Action: Un-equipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and enters diamond; ATS-equipped 

train on main passes Intermediate Signal

– ACS equipped train on main: ACS locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop 

capability which requires the Engineer to acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 

seconds to prevent a penalty application

– Un-equipped train on crossing track: No on-board display or capability to warn engineer or stop 

train.

 Accident Type: : Side impact between locomotive of one train and car of crossing train.

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: In many cases, ATS could prevent a collision or reduce collision speed

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Control Point Signal

YELLOW → RED

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → YELLOW
E-79

UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active IDOT Corridor 

Train with Unequipped Train at a Diamond

Control Point Signal

RED

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATS

 Accident Scenario: Un-equipped train erroneously enters Diamond (SPAD)

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal

– Action: Un-equipped train passes RED Control Point Signal; ATS equipped train on main between 

Intermediate and Control Point Signals

– ATS equipped train on main: ATS locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop 

capability which requires the Engineer to acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds 

to prevent a penalty application

– Un-equipped train on crossing track: No on-board display or capability to warn engineer or stop train.

 Accident Type: : Side impact between locomotive of one train and car of crossing train.

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: In many cases ATS could reduce collision speed and might prevent a collision, 

depending on the location of ATS train relative to the diamond.
E-80

UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: ACS/ATS-Equipped Active IDOT Corridor 

Train with Unequipped Train at a Diamond

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Control Point Signal

RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATS

 Accident Scenario: ATS equipped train erroneously enters Diamond (SPAD) when signals are cleared for 

crossing un-equipped train

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal

– Action: ATS equipped train on main passes RED Control Point Signal

– ATS equipped train on main: ATS locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop 

capability which requires the Engineer to acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds 

to prevent a penalty application

– Un-equipped train on crossing track: No on-board display or capability to warn engineer or stop train.

 Accident Type: Side impact between locomotive of one train and car of crossing train.

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: ATS reduces the chance of a violation and may reduce collision speed in those 

collisions that are not prevented
E-81

 Accident Scenario: Train erroneously enters work zone and contacts roadway worker(s) or hi-rail or work equipment. 

Work zone equipment protected by control point signal

– Cause: Human error

– Action: Train exceeds authority or work crew/equipment operating outside of authority

– ATS: ATS locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop capability which requires the Engineer 

to acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application

 Accident Type: Train collides Work Crew/Hi-Rail/Work Equipment

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: ATS can reduce the chance of a violation of the Control Point signal

Accident Scenario: Active ACS/ATS-Equipped Train and Work 

Crew/Hi-Rail/Work Equipment

RED

Control Point Signal

Control Point Signal

RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATS

Control Point Signal

RED

WORK ZONE
E-82

 Accident Scenario: Train contacts roadway worker(s) or hi-rail or work equipment not protected by 

control point signal

– Cause: Human error

– Action: Train exceeds authority or work crew/equipment operating outside of authority

– ATS: ATS provides no work zone protection outside of Control Point Signals

 Accident Type: Train to Work Crew/Hi-Rail/Work Equipment

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: None in this scenario

Accident Scenario: Active ACS/ATS-Equipped Train and Work 

Crew/Hi-Rail/Work Equipment

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATS

Control Point Signal

GREEN

WORK ZONE
E-83

Accident Scenario: Active ACS/ATS-Equipped Train Derails 

Due To Overspeed

 Accident Scenario: ATS-equipped train derails due to overspeed

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores speed restriction

– Action: ATS-equipped train ignores speed restriction (permanent or Form A) and accelerates or 

maintains current speed

– ATS provides no speed enforcement at permanent or temporary speed restrictions

 Accident Type: Overspeed Derailment

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: none in this scenario

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATS

Control Point Signal

GREEN

PERMANENT OR “FORM A” SPEED RESTRICTION
E-84

Accident Scenario: Active ACS/ATS-Equipped Train Derails 

Due To Broken Rail (Complete Break, Interrupting Track 

Circuit)

 Accident Scenario: ATS-equipped train derails due to broken rail. Train approaching intermediate signal

– Cause: Broken rail in next signal block

– Action: ATS-equipped train passes over broken rail and derails

– ATS-equipped train on main: ATS locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop capability 

which requires the Engineer to acknowledge a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a 

penalty application

 Accident Type: Broken Rail Derailment

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: In may cases train could slow or stop before break, depending on train location

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATS

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Broken Rail
E-85

Accident Scenario: Active ACS/ATS-Equipped Train Derails 

Due To Broken Rail (Complete Break, Interrupting Track 

Circuit)

 Accident Scenario: ATS-equipped train derails due to broken rail. Train has passed intermediate signal and entered 

same block as break.

– Cause: Broken rail in same signal block

– Action: ATS equipped train passes over broken rail and derails

– ATS-equipped train on main: The loss of pulsed carrier results in a Restricting Aspect. ATS locomotive onboard 

equipment provides an automatic train stop capability which requires the Engineer to acknowledge a downgrade 

in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application 

 Accident Type: Broken Rail Derailment

 ACS/ATS Risk Effect: In many cases, the Engineer will apply the brakes in response to the warning and slow or 

stop the train before reaching the break.

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATS

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Broken Rail
E-86

PTC Optimum Communications Timeout Study: 

Accident Descriptions

Part IV: Cab Signaling with Automatic Train Control (ATC)
E-87

Assumptions for ATC Base Case

 Bi-directional signaling for all cases

 Route lock from control point to control point

 All except two passing sidings are track-circuited

 All IDOT test corridor passenger and freight trains headed by a locomotive are equipped with ATC

 Work trains are equipped with cab signal when headed by conventional locomotive. Self propelled 

work equipment units (e.g. tamping machine) are unequipped

 Cab signal coded track circuits provide detection and communicate information to an inductive 

pickup on the locomotive via a pulsed 60 Hz carrier injected into the rail

 On-board ATC equipment enforces braking to a speed corresponding to cab signal aspect. Lowest 

enforced speed is restricting (20 mph), when track circuit is shunted

 Cab signal circuits are directional in that they can detect an interruption or shunt of the circuit ahead 

of an approaching train in the same signal block

 CTC track circuits provide detection to the wayside and control wayside signals, but do not 

communicate to the train

 All cab signal equipment operational and does not fail during operations over the route
E-88

Section 1: Head-On Collision Between Two 

Locomotives Heading Active IDOT Corridor Trains

Collision between train leaving uncontrolled siding and train on main track

Collision between train leaving controlled siding and train on main track.
E-89

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding and Main

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train leaving siding without authority, & ATC-equipped train entering block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATC-equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATC-equipped train passing Intermediate 

Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: ATC locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate braking to reduce 

speed in compliance with cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application, the absence of the 

carrier will continue to show a Restricting Aspect in the cab

– ATC-equipped train entering main from siding: ATC will continue to display a Restricting Aspect preventing speed 

exceeding restricting.

 Accident Type: Head-on collision between locomotives

 ATC Benefit: Collision will be prevented or collision speed reduced

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATC

ATC
E-90

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train leaving siding & ATC-equipped train in block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATC-equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATC-equipped train passed Intermediate 

Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: ATC locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer initiate braking to 

restricted speed within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application.

– ATC-equipped train on siding: Upon entering main, loss of speed code results in a Restricting Aspect. ATC 

locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate braking to restricted speed within 8 seconds to 

prevent a penalty application 

 Accident Type: Head-on collision between locomotives. See also alternative scenario in Section 2, page E-100

 ATC Risk Effect: Collision will be prevented or collision speed reduced

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

RED Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

ATC

ATC

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main
E-91

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train erroneously leaving siding (SPAD); ATC-equipped train passing Intermediate 

Signal and approaching the Control Point

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal

– Action: ATC-equipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding; ATC-equipped train on main passes Intermediate Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: When the train from the siding shunts the main track, ATC will change from Clear to Approach. Engineer must initiate braking to reduce speed in accordance with signal aspect to avoid penalty brake. 

When the train passes the Intermediate Signal, ATC will change from Approach to Restricting, requiring further 

braking to restricting speed

– ATC-equipped train entering main from siding: ATC will display a continuous Restricting Aspect

 Accident Type: Head-on collision between locomotives. 

 This and page E-92 scenarios probably the most common scenarios on this corridor. Almost all meets are at controlled 

sidings

 ATC Risk Effect: Collision will be prevented or collision speed reduced

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → YELLOW

RED

Control Point Signal

ATC

ATC

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on Controlled 

(Passing) Siding and Main
E-92

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train erroneously leaving siding (SPAD); ATC-equipped train entering the Control 

Point block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATC-equipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding; ATC-equipped train on main between 

Intermediate & Control Point Signals

– ATC-equipped train on main: When the train from the siding shunts the main track, ATC will change from Clear to 

Restricting and Engineer must initiate braking to slow train to restricting speed to avoid penalty brake. 

– ATC-equipped train on siding: ATC will display a continuous Restricting Aspect in the cab, enforcing restricted speed

 Accident Type: Head-on collision between locomotives. See also alternative scenario in Section 2, Page E-101

 ATC Risk Effect: Collision will be prevented or collision speed reduced.

ATC

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on Controlled 

(Passing) Siding & Main

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

RED

Control Point Signal

ATC
E-93

Section 2: Collision Between Two Active IDOT 

Corridor Trains: Head (Locomotive) with Rear or 

Side of Second Train 

 Train rear-ends a stationary or slower moving train on main

 Train exiting uncontrolled siding in reverse. Collision on main with train traveling in same direction

 Train exiting uncontrolled siding. Collision on main with train traveling in same direction

 Train exiting uncontrolled siding, collides with side of train traveling in opposite direction.

 Train exiting controlled siding, collides with side of train traveling in opposite direction.

 Train exiting controlled siding. Collision with train traveling on main same direction
E-94

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains Following 

One Another on Main

 Accident Scenario: Two ATC-equipped trains on main. Following ATC-equipped train entering block (SPAD)

– Cause: Crew ignores intermediate signal

– Action: Following ATC-equipped train passes RED Intermediate Signal on main; ATC-equipped train on main: 

ATC will sound an audible alert when the train passes the previous Intermediate Signal and show a downgraded 

signal aspect. Engineer must initiate braking or ATC applies a penalty brake.

 Accident Type: Rear end collision. Locomotive of train on main strikes rear of train exiting siding

 ATC Risk Effect : Reduces chance of SPAD. Following train either stops or slows to reduce collision speed or 

prevent collision. Cannot exceed restricting speed when entering same block as lead train.

Intermediate Signal

GREEN

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATC ATC

Intermediate Signal

YELLOW
E-95

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train leaving siding (reverse move) & ATC-equipped train entering block (SPAD)

– Cause: Crew ignores intermediate signal

– Action: ATC-equipped train passes RED Intermediate Signal on main; ATC-equipped train exiting siding

– ATC-equipped train on main: ATC will sound an auditable alert when the train passes the previous Intermediate 

Signal and show a downgraded signal aspect. Engineer must initiate braking or ATC applies a penalty brake.

– ATC-equipped train entering main from siding: The train will be unaware of the approaching train until locomotive 

reaches the main track

 Accident Type: Rear end collision. Locomotive of train on main strikes rear of train exiting siding

 ATC Risk Effect : Reduces chance of SPAD. Train on main either stops or slows to reduce collision speed or 

prevent collision. Train on siding limited to restricted speed.

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATC

ATC
E-96

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train backing from siding & ATC-equipped train entering block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew of train exiting siding ignores signal

– Action: ATC-equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATC-equipped train passing 

Intermediate Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: ATC locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate 

braking in response to a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty 

application. The absence of the carrier will continue to show a Restricting Aspect in the cab once 

the train has passed the intermediate signal

– ATC-equipped train backing from siding: The train will be unaware of the approaching train 

 Accident Type: rear-end collision. Train on main strikes rear of train exiting siding

 ATC Risk Effect: Train on main will slow to either prevent a collision or reduce collision speed.

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATC

ATC
E-97

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train reversing from siding & ATC-equipped train in block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATC-equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATC-equipped train has 

passed Intermediate Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: ATC locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to 

initiate braking to slow to restricted speed within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application.

– ATC-equipped train on siding: The train will be unaware of the approaching train

 Accident Type: Rear-end, side or raking collision. Train on main strikes rear of train exiting siding, 

OR train on siding strikes side of train on main, behind the locomotive.

 ATC Risk Effect: ATC train on main will slow to prevent a collision or reduce collision speed, 

depending on location relative to the switch

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

RED Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

ATC

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main

ATC
E-98

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train leaving siding & ATC-equipped train approaching intermediate signal

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATC-equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATC-equipped train passed Intermediate 

Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: ATC locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate braking to 

slow to speed indicated by signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application.

– ATC-equipped train on siding: Upon entering main, loss of speed code results in a Restricting Aspect. ATC 

locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate braking to slow to restricting speed within 8 

seconds to prevent a penalty application 

 Accident Type: Rear, side or raking collision. Train exiting siding strikes train or vise-versa depending on relative 

position and speed of trains

 ATC Risk Effect: Collision may be prevented or closing speed of collision reduced, depending on the position of the 

two trains relative to the collision point

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

ATC

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main

ATC
E-99

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train leaving siding & ATC-equipped train in block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATC-equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATC-equipped train passed Intermediate 

Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: ATC locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate braking to 

slow to restricting speed within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application.

– ATC-equipped train on siding: Upon entering main, loss of speed code results in a Restricting Aspect. ATC 

locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate braking to slow to restricting speed within 8 

seconds to prevent a penalty application 

 Accident Type: Rear, side or raking collision. Train exiting siding strikes train or vise-versa depending on relative 

position and speed of trains

 ATC Risk Effect: Collision may be prevented or closing speed of collision reduced, depending on the position of the 

two trains relative to the collision point

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN

Intermediate Signal

RED

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

ATC

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main

ATC
E-100

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train leaving siding & ATC-equipped train in block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATC-equipped train erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATC-equipped train passed Intermediate 

Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: ATC locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate braking to 

slow to restricting speed within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application.

– ATC-equipped train on siding: Upon entering main, loss of speed code results in a Restricting Aspect. ATC 

locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate braking to slow to restricting speed within 8 

seconds to prevent a penalty application 

 Accident Type: Side or raking collision. Train exiting siding strikes train on main behind locomotive. See also 

scenario variant in Section 1 Page E-90

 ATC Risk Effect: None, locomotive of train has already passed when train on siding reaches main.

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

RED Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

ATC

ATC

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on 

Uncontrolled Siding & Main
E-101

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train erroneously leaving siding (SPAD); ACS equipped train entering the Control 

Point block

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATC-equipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding (max speed – restricting); ATC- equipped train on main between Intermediate & Control Point Signals

– ATC-equipped train on main: When the train from the siding shunts the main track, ATC will change from Clear to 

Restricting. Engineer must initiate braking to reduce speed to restricting to avoid penalty brake. 

– ATC-equipped train on siding: ATC will be limited to Restricting speed

 Accident Type: Side or raking collision. Locomotive of train exiting siding strikes train on main behind locomotive. See 

also alternative scenario in Section 1, Page E-92

 ATC Risk Effect: Collision avoided or closing speed of collision reduced, depending on location of train on the main 

relative to collision point

ATC

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on Controlled 

(Passing) Siding & Main

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

RED

Control Point Signal

ATC
E-102

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train erroneously leaves siding (SPAD); ATC-equipped train on main passing 

Intermediate Signal and approaching the Control Point

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores signal

– Action: ATC-equipped train passes RED Control Point Signal (ATC does not enforce speed below restricting) and exits siding; ATC-equipped train on main has not passed the Intermediate Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: When the train from the siding shunts the main track, ATC will change from Clear to Approach and sound a warning the must be acknowledged to avoid penalty brake. When the train passes the 

Intermediate Signal ATC will change from Approach to Restricting and sound an additional warning which must be 

acknowledged

– ATC-equipped train entering main from siding: Once the Control Point Signal is passed the train will be unaware of the approaching train on the main

 Accident Type: Rear-end, side or raking collision. Train on main strikes rear of train exiting siding OR either train 

strikes the other behind the locomotive

 ATC Risk Effect: Reduces chance that train on siding will pass red control point signal; train on main will slow 

to avoid collision or reduce collision speed

RED

Control Point Signal

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → YELLOW

ATC

ATC

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on Controlled 

(Passing) Siding & Main
E-103

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped active train erroneously leaving siding (SPAD); second ATC-equipped active train approaching 

the Control Point signal

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal 

– Action: ATC-equipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and exits siding; ATC-equipped train on main between 

Intermediate & Control Point Signals. (Note ATC does not enforce speeds below restricted speed 20 mph)

– ATC-equipped train on main: When the train from the siding shunts the main track, ATC will change from Clear to Restricting/ 

Engineer must initiate braking to reduce speed to restricting to avoid penalty brake. 

– ATC-equipped train entering main from siding: Once the Control Point Signal is passed the train will be unaware of the 

approaching train on the main

 Accident Type: Rear-end, side or raking collision. Depending on relative train position, the train on the main could strike the rear of 

the train exiting the siding OR either train could strike the other behind the locomotive

 ATC Risk Effect: Reduces chance that train on siding will pass red control point signal; train on main will slow to avoid collision or 

reduce collision speed

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

RED

Control Point Signal

ATC

ATC

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on Controlled 

(Passing) Siding & Main
E-104

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped active train on main ignores Control Point signal (SPAD); second ATC-equipped 

active train leaving siding

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal 

– Action: ATC-equipped train on main passes RED Control Point Signal; ATC-equipped train correctly leaving siding 

under clear Control Point signal.

– ATC-equipped train on main: Engineer must initiate braking to reduce speed to restricting after passing Intermediate 

signal to avoid penalty braking. 

– ATC-equipped train entering main from siding: No restriction

 Accident Type: Rear-end, side or raking collision. Depending on relative train position, the train on the main could strike 

the rear of the train exiting the siding OR either train could strike the other behind the locomotive

 ATC Risk Effect: Reduces chance that train on main will pass red control point signal; train on siding will not slow until 

train on main passes RED signal.

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

GREEN

Control Point Signal

ATC

ATC

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Trains on Controlled 

(Passing) Siding & Main
E-105

Section 3: Collision Between the Head (Locomotive) 

of an Active IDOT Test Corridor Train and an 

Intruding Rail Vehicle or Vehicle Lading

Unsecured or mishandled rail vehicle rolling onto main track, or positioned “not in clear” 

at siding or industry track switch

– Active train approaching signal block in which intrusion occurred

– Active train in same block as intrusion

Intrusions into clearance envelope of main track from adjacent track away from 

connecting turnout

– Derailed vehicle on adjacent track

– Shifted load on vehicle on adjacent track
E-106

Accident Scenario: Cars on Uncontrolled Siding & ATC 

Equipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Car rolls from siding onto main (assume car shunts track circuit) & ACS equipped train 

entering block

– Cause: Car or cut of cars not properly secured, not positioned in clear or mishandled during switching 

operations

– Action: Car erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATC-equipped train passing Intermediate Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: ATC locomotive onboard equipment will change to restricting, requiring the 

Engineer to initiate braking to reduce speed to restricted speed (20 mph) within 8 seconds to prevent a 

penalty application

 Accident Type: Intrusion – locomotive of active train strikes car or cut of cars

 ATC Risk Effect: ATC causes active train to brake, avoiding a collision or reducing collision speed, depending 

on location of train at time of intrusion.

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATC

CAR
E-107

Accident Scenario: Equipment on Uncontrolled Siding & ATCEquipped Train on Main

“Flag” Signal

Intermediate Signal

RED Intermediate Signal

“Flag” Signal “Flag” Signal

ATC

CAR

 Accident Scenario: Car rolls from siding (assume car shunts track circuit) & ATC-equipped train in block

– Cause: Car or cut of cars not properly secured, not positioned in clear or mishandled during switching 

operations

– Action: Car(s) erroneously exit siding and enters main; ATC-equipped train has passed the Intermediate 

Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: The loss of pulsed carrier results in a restricting aspect in the cab. 

Engineer must initiate braking to reduce speed to restricting within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty 

application 

 Accident Type: Intrusion – locomotive of active train strikes car or cut of cars

 ATC Risk Effect: ATC causes active train to brake avoiding a collision or reducing collision speed, 

depending on location of train at time of intrusion.
E-108

Accident Scenario: Equipment on Controlled Siding & ATCEquipped Active Train on Main

RED

Control Point Signal

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → YELLOW

CAR

ATC

 Accident Scenario: Car or cut of cars rolls from siding onto main (assume car shunts track circuit) & ATCequipped train entering block between Intermediate and Control Point Signal

– Cause: Car not properly secured, or not parked in clear or mishandled during switching.

– Action: Car erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATC-equipped train passing Intermediate Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: When the car from the siding shunts the main track, Intermediate signal will 

change from Clear to Approach. On board ATC equipment requires Engineer to initiate braking to reduce 

speed to that required by changed aspect to avoid penalty brake application. 

 Accident Type: Intrusion collision: locomotive of active train strikes cars or cut of cars exiting siding

 ATC Risk Effect: Train will brake, avoiding a collision or reducing collision speed
E-109

Accident Scenario: Equipment on Controlled Siding & ATCEquipped Active Train on Main

RED

Control Point Signal

Control Point Signal

GREEN Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

CAR

ATC 

 Accident Scenario: Car rolls from siding (assume car shunts track circuit) & ATC-equipped train entering block

– Cause: Car or cut of cars not properly secured

– Action: Car erroneously exits siding and enters main; ATC-equipped train passing control Point Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: When the car from the siding shunts the main track and the control point signal 

changes aspect, ATC on-board equipment requires the Engineer to initiate braking to reduce speed to restricting 

(20 mph) within 8 seconds to avoid penalty brake application.. 

 Accident Type: Intrusion collision: locomotive of active train strikes car or cut of cars

 ATC Risk Effect: Depending on location of train relative to intruding cars, ATC will help the train either avoid a 

collision or reduce collision speed.
E-110

Accident Scenario: Car With Shifted Load on Adjacent Track 

& ATC-Equipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Shifted load on car on adjacent track fouls main track. ATC train approaching 

Intermediate signal at block entry

– Cause: Shifted load for any reason

– Action: Derailed car fouls main track; ATC-equipped train passing Intermediate Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: IF shifted load shunts coded track circuit on main, ATC locomotive 

onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate braking to reduce speed to restricting aspect (20 

mph) within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application. Note: shifted load would have to fall and 

shunt track circuit to be detected, which is unlikely.

 Accident Type: Intrusion – main is fouled away from connecting switch

 ATC Risk Effect: Limited chance of avoiding collision or reducing speed before the collision point

Intermediate Signal Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATC

CAR
E-111

Accident Scenario: Car With Shifted Load on Adjacent Track 

& ATC-Equipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Shifted load on car on adjacent track fouls main track. ATC-equipped train in same 

block as intrusion

– Cause: Shifted load for any reason

– Action: Derailed car fouls main track; ATC-equipped train passing Intermediate Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: IF shifted load shunts coded track circuit on main, ATC locomotive 

onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate braking to reduce speed to restricting (20 mph) 

within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application. Note: shifted load would have to fall and shunt 

track circuit to be detected, which is unlikely.

 Accident Type: Intrusion – main is fouled away from connecting switch

 ATC Risk Effect: Very limited chance of avoiding collision or reducing collision speed

Intermediate Signal Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATC

CAR
E-112

Accident Scenario: Derailed Car on Adjacent Track & ATCEquipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Car or cars derail on adjacent track and foul main track. ATC train approaching 

intermediate signal.

– Cause: Derailment form any track or equipment defect or human error

– Action: Derailed car(s) foul main track; ATC-equipped train approaching Intermediate Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: IF derailed car shunts coded track circuit on main, ATC locomotive 

onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate braking to reduce speed to that required by cab 

signal aspect within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application

 Accident Type: Intrusion – main is fouled away from connecting switch

 ATC Risk effect: Could prevent a collision or reduce ATC-equipped train speed at the intrusion, IF 

derailed car shunts main track circuit

Intermediate Signal Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATC
E-113

Accident Scenario: Derailed Car on Adjacent Track & ATCEquipped Active Train on Main

 Accident Scenario: Car or cars derail on adjacent track and foul main track. ATC train in same block as 

intrusion.

– Cause: Derailment form any track or equipment defect or human error

– Action: Derailed car(s) foul main track; ATC-equipped train approaching Intermediate Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: IF derailed car shunts coded track circuit on main, ATC locomotive 

onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate braking to reduce speed to restricted within 8 

seconds to prevent a penalty application

 Accident Type: Intrusion – main is fouled away from connecting switch

 ATC Risk Effect: Could prevent a collision or reduce ATC-equipped train speed at the intrusion, 

depending on train location relative to intrusion AND IF derailed car shunts main track circuit

Intermediate Signal Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATC
E-114

Section 4: Other Accident Types Involving a 

Single Active IDOT Test Corridor Train

Collision with a highway vehicle at a grade crossing

Collision with crossing train at a diamond crossing with another railroad

Work zone intrusion or collision with work equipment (Form A)

Over speed derailment at temporary (Form B) or permanent speed restriction

Broken rail derailment
E-115

 Accident Scenario: Vehicle crosses tracks in front of ATC-equipped train

– Cause: Human error by vehicle driver, or vehicle stalled on crossing, or defective crossing warning system

– Action: Vehicle in path of train on crossing

– ATC equipped train has no grade crossing communications within cab that can alert locomotive to presence of 

vehicle

 Accident Type: Train to highway vehicle. Potential for derailment following grade crossing impact, especially with 

heavy trucks.

 ATC Risk Effect: None. ATC does not communicate with grade crossing warning systems

Roadway

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active Train at a Grade 

Crossing

ATC

V

E

H

I

C

L

E
E-116

Control Point Signal

RED

ATC

UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active IDOT Corridor Train 

with Unequipped Train of Another Railroad at a Diamond

 Accident Scenario: Crossing un-equipped train erroneously enters diamond (SPAD)

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal

– Action: Un-equipped train passes RED Control Point Signal and enters diamond; ATC-equipped 

train on main passes Intermediate Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: ATC locomotive onboard equipment requires the Engineer to initiate 

braking to reduce speed to correct level for signal indication within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty 

application

– Un-equipped train on crossing track: No on-board display or capability to warn engineer or stop 

train.

 Accident Type: : Side impact between locomotive of one train and car of crossing train.

 ATC Risk Effect: ATC could prevent or reduce the speed of a collision.

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Control Point Signal

YELLOW → RED

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → YELLOW
E-117

UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active IDOT Corridor Train 

with Unequipped Train on Another Railroad at a Diamond

Control Point Signal

RED

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Control Point Signal

GREEN → RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATC

 Accident Scenario: Un-equipped train erroneously enters Diamond (SPAD)

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal

– Action: Un-equipped train passes RED Control Point Signal; ATC-equipped train on main between Intermediate and 

Control Point Signals

– ATC-equipped train on main: Crossing train interrupts coded track circuit on main, leading to restricting aspect in cab. 

ATC locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic speed enforcement capability which requires the Engineer 

to initiate braking within 8 seconds to prevent a penalty application

– Un-equipped train on crossing track: No on-board display or capability to warn engineer or stop train.

 Accident Type: : Side impact between locomotive of one train and car of crossing train.

 ATC Risk Effect: ATC could prevent or reduce the speed of a collision, depending on ATC train location relative to the 

crossing at the time of the violation
E-118

UNEQUIPPED

Accident Scenario: ATC-Equipped Active IDOT Corridor Train 

with Unequipped Train on Another Railroad at a Diamond

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Control Point Signal

RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATC

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train erroneously enters Diamond (SPAD) when signals are cleared for crossing unequipped train

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores Control Point Signal

– Action: ATC-equipped train on main passes RED Control Point Signal

– ATC-equipped train on main: ATC locomotive onboard equipment enforces a reduction in speed to restricting (20 

mph). Engineer has to respond with braking in response to a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 seconds to 

prevent a penalty application

– Un-equipped train on crossing track: No on-board display or capability to warn engineer or stop train.

 Accident Type: Side impact between locomotive of one train and car of crossing train.

 ATC Risk Effect: ATC will prevent most collisions . Collision speed will be reduced on those collisions ATC does not 

prevent.
E-119

 Accident Scenario: Train erroneously enters work zone and contacts roadway worker(s) or hi-rail or 

work equipment. Work zone equipment protected by a control point signal

– Cause: Human error

– Action: Train exceeds authority or work crew/equipment operating outside of authority

– ATC: ATC locomotive onboard equipment provides an automatic train stop capability which 

requires the Engineer to initiate braking in response to a downgrade in cab signal aspect within 8 

seconds to prevent a penalty application

 Accident Type: Train collides Work Crew/Hi-Rail/Work Equipment

 ATC Risk Effect: ATC can reduce the likelihood or speed of a collision with work crews or 

equipment if the equipment or work site is protected by a control point signal

Accident Scenario: Active ATC-Equipped Train and Work 

Crew/Hi-Rail/Work Equipment

RED

Control Point Signal

Control Point Signal

RED

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATC

Control Point Signal

RED

WORK ZONE
E-120

 Accident Scenario: Train contacts roadway worker(s) or hi-rail or work equipment not protected by 

control point signal

– Cause: Human error

– Action: Train exceeds authority or work crew/equipment operating outside of authority

– ATC: ATC provides no work zone protection outside of Control Point Signals

 Accident Type: Train to Work Crew/Hi-Rail/Work Equipment

 ATC Risk Effect: None in this scenario

Accident Scenario: Active ATC-Equipped Train and Work 

Crew/Hi-Rail/Work Equipment

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATC

Control Point Signal

GREEN

WORK ZONE
E-121

Accident Scenario: Active ATC-Equipped Train Derails Due To 

Overspeed

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train derails due to overspeed

– Cause: Dispatcher misreads map or crew ignores speed restriction

– Action: ATC-equipped train ignores speed restriction (permanent or Form A) and accelerates or 

maintains current speed

– ATC provides no speed enforcement at permanent or temporary speed restrictions

 Accident Type: Overspeed Derailment

 ATC Risk Effect: None in this scenario

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATC

Control Point Signal

GREEN

PERMANENT OR “FORM A” SPEED RESTRICTION
E-122

Accident Scenario: Active ATC-Equipped Train Derails Due To 

Broken Rail (Complete Break, Interrupting Track Circuit)

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train derails due to broken rail. Train approaching intermediate signal

– Cause: Broken rail in next signal block

– Action: ATC-equipped train passes over broken rail and derails

– ATC-equipped train on main: ATC locomotive onboard equipment provides a speed enforcement capability 

requiring the Engineer to initiate service braking to reduce speed to that required by the signal aspect within 8 

seconds to prevent a penalty application

 Accident Type: Broken Rail Derailment

 ATC Risk Effect: Train could slow or stop before reaching break, depending on break and train location relative to 

intermediate signal

Intermediate Signal

GREEN → RED

ATC

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Broken Rail
E-123

Accident Scenario: Active ATC-Equipped Train Derails Due To 

Broken Rail (Complete Break, Interrupting Track Circuit)

 Accident Scenario: ATC-equipped train derails due to broken rail. Train has passed intermediate signal and entered 

same block as break.

– Cause: Broken rail in same signal block

– Action: ATC-equipped train passes over broken rail and derails

– ATC-equipped train on main: The loss of pulsed carrier of the track circuit results in a Restricting Aspect. ATC 

locomotive onboard equipment requires service brake application to reduce speed to restricting (20 mph). If 

sufficient braking effort is not initiated within 8 seconds, a penalty brake application will be initiated.

 Accident Type: Broken Rail Derailment

 ATC Risk Effect: Train could slow or stop before break, depending on the location of the break relative to train 

position.

Intermediate Signal

RED

ATC

Control Point Signal

GREEN

Broken Rail
F-1 

Appendix F: Model Inputs – Sources and Analyses

F.1 Introduction

This appendix describes the sources of the numerical inputs to the risk models (contained on the 

inputs worksheet for each analysis case) and the analyses used to derive the numerical values. In 

some cases, the analyses are discussed and described elsewhere in this report or its appendices, 

in which case the appropriate reference is given, together with the specific source of the input 

numbers. How the input values change between analysis cases is also described.

The structure of the appendix is to group inputs by general subject area, generally in the order in 

which they are tabulated on the Model Inputs Worksheet. The information provided for each 

type of input is a definition of the input—what it refers to and the units used for numerical 

values, and then the data sources used for the inputs and details of any analysis required. 
F-2 

F.2 Route, Train, and Traffic Data

F.2.1 Braking and Miscellaneous Inputs

These inputs are given in Tables IN-1 and IN-1b on the Inputs worksheet. The braking formula 

coefficients in Table IN-1a are taken from material provided by Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) 

and are further detailed in Section A.2 of Appendix A. The coefficients are held constant for all 

analysis cases.

The values for NAJPTC timeout and latency are provided by the FRA for the PTC system as 

currently configured. A range of reduced timeout and latency values will be entered for analyses 

of the impact of radio communications improvements, as selected by the analyst in consultation 

with FRA. For cab signal with ATS analysis cases, latency is set at 3 seconds, and there is no 

separate timeout operating state. 

Table IN-1b contains inputs concerned with the calculation of collision risk when an equipped 

train is in Zone C. 

• Sight distance is the distance over which the engineer can see the next signal and can respond 

to a changes signal aspect, even if the response of the PTC system is delayed due to latency 

or timeout.

• Probability refers to the chance that the equipped train will be located in Zone C at the time 

of a signal violation by an unequipped train versus being located in Zones A1, A2, or B.

• PTC risk increment in Zone C. This value is the increased risk that an engineer will fail to 

respond to the changed signal indication due to a PTC “complacency effect.” 

• Danger length is the distance over which an engineer may fail to respond to a more restrictive 

signal in the absence of a response by the PTC system. Danger length is usually identical to 

the sight distance, above. 

The Zone C analysis is explained in further detail in Section A.3 of Appendix A. 

F.2.2 Traffic Volume and Mix

Traffic data model inputs are contained in Table IN-1c on the inputs worksheet. All traffic data 

were derived from Table 9 in a risk assessment base case report prepared by the University of 

Virginia (UVA).

1

• Passenger trains: Three round trips/day daily throughout the year; 

 Actual traffic on the corridor varies by location, day of the week and location 

along the corridor, as follows: 

• Local freight trains: 

- Five round trips/week between Bloomington and Mazonia, and 

- Three round trips/week between Bloomington and Ridgely; 

 

1 University of Virginia, “IDOT Base Case Risk Assessment Results,” Revision 04, February 7, 2005.
F-3 

• Through freight trains: Three round trips/week between Bloomington and Ridgely; 

• Unscheduled grain trains: Total of five round trips per week in the non-summer months on 

random days - 

- Three between Bunge and Ridgely;

- Two between Bloomington and Ridgely. 

Seventy-five percent of the local freight trains are PTC-equipped and all other freight trains are 

unequipped. To avoid having to do separate risk calculations for each day of the week, average 

traffic levels expressed as one-way trips/day were used in the model, and are documented in 

Table IN-1c on the Inputs worksheet. The table indicates traffic levels (daily one-way trips) for 

the three Sub-corridors:

• “Joliet” between Mazonia and MP 88.3 (the nearest block signal to the Bunge grain siding); 

• “Bloomington” Sub-corridor, between MPs 88.3 (Bunge) and MP 124.9 (north end of 

Bloomington yard);

• “Springfield” Sub-corridor, between MP 124.9 and MP 181 at Ridgely, the south end of the 

IDOT test corridor. 

Note that no seasonal grain trains operate in the Joliet Sub-corridor, thus traffic does not vary by 

season. This means that only one risk calculation is needed for this corridor rather than the 

separate summer and rest of year calculations required for the Bloomington and Springfield Subcorridors. The specific traffic data used in the model are given in Table F.1.
F-4 

Table F.1. Average Trains per Day for Each Season and Sub-Corridor

Train Type 

One-Way Trips

Joliet

Sub-corridor

Bloomington

Sub-corridor

Springfield

Sub-corridor

Summer Rest of 

Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year

Passenger 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 

Equipped

freight 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07 0.86 0.86 

Unequipped 

freight 0.36 0.36 0.36 1.21 0.87 2.30 

Operating days 91 274 91 274 91 274 

The final item of information in the inputs worksheet Table IN.1c is the parameters from which 

to calculate the occupancy of passenger trains, the average number of seats or berths on the trains 

and the average load factor or occupancy. Seating and berth capacity of the trains depends on 

the numbers and types of cars in the consists. Two of the trains are short-haul corridor services 

with five cars, four coaches and one food service car. The third train is the long haul “Texas 

Eagle” with four coach cars, two sleeping cars, and two food service cars. The capacity of 

Amtrak cars varies widely from about 20 for a sleeping car up to about 80 for coach cars used in 

short-haul services. Seats in food service cars are usually reserved for use by passengers only 

when eating, but at busy times may be occupied by passengers for their complete journey. 

Taking all this into account and assuming that the short haul trains have 80-seat coaches and the 

Texas Eagle has 60-seat long haul coaches, the capacity of both trains is in the range between 

320 and 360 passengers; a figure of 340 is used in the model. Load factor or occupancy is 

estimated at 0.6 or 60 percent, a typical value for Amtrak service, which is based on data 

supplied by Amtrak for a previous ICF project. 

F.2.3 Track and Route Data

Track and route data comprise all the information concerning line segment and Sub-corridors, 

and train speeds in the test corridor. These data are held constant for all analysis cases, and are 

contained in Tables 2a, 2b, and 2c on the inputs worksheet. 

Each of these tables contains the following information, all of which is taken from the detailed 

listing of track information prepared by BAH, as detailed in Appendix D, supplemented by a 

review of current track charts for the IDOT test corridor, which is also provided in Appendix D. 
F-5 

Sub-Corridors

Separate analyses are performed for each sub-corridor of the IDOT test corridor, as a function of 

traffic level and mix. Traffic data (one-way trips/day) for each Sub-corridor were given in Table 

IN-1c and the boundaries of the Sub-corridors are given in Section F.2.2. Each of Tables IN-2a, 

2b, and 2c give segment data for a Sub-corridor. 

Segment Data

Segment boundaries (milepost locations) are located at each block boundary or interlocking 

signal and were derived from the detailed route data listings in Appendix D. Segment locations 

(beginning and end points) are given to the nearest 1/100th of a mile in that listing.

Segment type was taken directly from track layout information on the track charts. As described 

in Section A.1.3 of Appendix A, all segments (signal blocks) have been designated as one of five 

categories, as follows:

• Monitored (track-circuited) siding, 

• Unmonitored Siding (siding track not track circuited), 

• CP Adjacent (M) – a single track segment immediately before or after a monitored siding, 

• CP Adjacent (U) – a single track segment immediately before or after an unmonitored siding, 

and

• Plain track: all other single track segments.

No double track occurs on the corridor except at passing sidings. The rationale for 

distinguishing between segment types is that collision type and risk vary by segment type. 

Posted speeds are taken from the track charts for freight trains and for conventional (non-highspeed) passenger trains. The listing provided in Appendix D supplied posted speeds applicable 

to high-speed trains, with an overall limit of 110 mph. 

Representative speeds are the analyst’s estimate of typical operating speeds in a segment, taking 

into account braking and acceleration zones before and after a restricted speed points. Section 

A.2.2 of Appendix A discussed the approach to estimating representative speeds. Two 

representative speeds are for high speed trains in the NAJPTC case. The “regular” representative 

speed is used for all braking distance and collision risk calculations and the reduced speed for 

only collision consequences in collisions with unequipped trains. This allows the model to take 

account of the operating rule that restricts high speed train speed when in the vicinity of an 

unequipped freight train. 

The tables also contain information about the presence of industrial sidings and passenger 

stations in each segment. These data are for reference only and are not used in the present 

version of the model. In particular, passenger train speeds are representative of a nonstop run 

through the test corridor and do not reflect braking and acceleration zones before and after 

passenger station stops. 
F-6 

F.2.4 Grade Crossing Data

Tables IN-3a, 3b, 3c, and 3d provide grade crossing data for model input. The first three of these 

give grade crossing counts for each Sub-corridor, by train representative speed when passing 

over the crossing and by crossing type. Three types are used to characterize crossings:

• Crossings at a public highway equipped with at least gates, flashing lights, and a bell;

• Crossings at a public highway that lack one or more of the key crossing warning systems 

(gates, lights, or bell); and

• All private crossings for accessing a farm or industrial facility.

Separate listings are provided for each train type: conventional passenger, high-speed passenger 

and freight. The listings also provide a count of the number of diamonds in each Sub-corridor. 

Diamond data are for reference only and are not used in the calculations, which depend on data 

on the location of diamond segments and segments adjacent to diamonds given in Tables 2a, 2b, 

and 2c. 

Crossing counts are taken from information on the track charts, using the segment-by-segment 

speeds from Tables IN-2a, 2b, and 2c as the source of representative speeds. Crossing location 

and warning systems were derived primarily from the track charts, which appear to be more upto-date than the listings prepared by BAH. Almost all public crossings are equipped with active 

warning systems. 

Table IN-3d provides crossing collision frequencies and consequences by train type, crossing 

type, and representative speed. Crossing collision frequencies have the units of collisions per 

million crossing passes and are for crossing collisions reportable as train accidents and derived 

from FRA-reportable train accidents. These are accidents that cause damage to railroad property 

exceeding the train accident reporting threshold. No attempt was made to calculate crossing 

collision frequencies for all grade crossing accidents, defined by FRA as any event where a train 

strikes a highway user, irrespective of damage or the number and types of casualties. The 

frequency of all rail-highway grade crossing accidents would be much higher than that for those 

reportable such as train accidents. Passenger frequencies and consequences were calculated from 

a 15-year database of passenger accidents developed for a past ICF project and adjusted to reflect 

current nationwide crossing collision frequencies. Frequencies for freight trains were derived 

directly from FRA train accident data. No attempt was made to analyze local grade crossing 

collision frequencies on this corridor. 

Crossing collision consequences for passenger trains were also derived from the same previous 

ICF analysis. The consequences are for railroad employees and contractors and passenger train 

occupants. No attempt has been made to estimate and include in the analysis casualties among 

highway vehicle occupants, pedestrians, and bystanders. 
F-7 

F.3 Reference Case Accident Consequences

Table IN-4 contains listings of accident consequences for all accident scenarios other than 

collisions with a highway vehicle at a grade crossing, discussed in Section F.2.4. These include 

head-on and rear end/side collisions, collisions with freight equipment or freight lading intruding 

onto the main running track, derailments due to overspeed or a broken rail and track worker 

casualties involving a violation of a work zone. Separate tables are provided for freight and 

passenger trains, given the very different exposure to casualties and property damage between 

passenger and freight trains.

F.3.1 Passenger Train Consequence Data

Train-to-Train Collisions

The passenger train data are derived from an analysis of a 15-year database of train accidents 

involving passenger trains, derived from the FRA accident database. The information on 

casualties in accidents and accident frequencies were taken from a previous analysis of the same 

database. This previous analysis did not call for an analysis of property damage costs, thus a 

cost analysis, using the same source, was carried out for this project. 

Casualty estimates from the previous project results were adjusted for differences in 

representative speeds to give the results shown in Table F.2. The analysis assumes that 

casualties are proportional to speed squared, and the differentials between the accidents with the 

different colliding vehicles are largely derived from the extensive collision modeling carried out 

in FRA and Volpe Center passenger car and locomotive crashworthiness research. 

Table F.2. Casualties per Accident in Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train Collisions

Accident 

Scenario

Representative 

Speed 40 mph

Representative 

Speed 60 mph

Representative 

Speed 79 mph

Representative 

Speed 105 mph

Injuries Fatalities Injuries Fatalities Injuries Fatalities Injuries Fatalities

P Loco 

→ Loco 0.083 0.0020 0.139 0.0049 0.240 0.0085 0.425 0.0150 

P Loco 

→ P Car 0.034 0.0010 0.056 0.0026 0.097 0.0045 0.171 0.0080 

P Loco 

→ F Car 0.034 0.0010 0.056 0.0026 0.097 0.0045 0.171 0.0080 

P Car

→Loco 0.166 0.0050 0.275 0.0119 0.476 0.0206 0.841 0.0364 

Note: Figures are for estimated fraction of train occupants that become casualties in the first train listed in the

accident scenario column. 
F-8 

Damage estimates were calculated from collisions consequences in a 15-year database for train 

accidents involving passenger trains. Differentials between representative speeds were 

calculated as for casualties, assuming damage is proportional to speed squared. The results are 

given in Table F.3. 

Table F.3. Damage Measured in Dollars per Accident for Passenger Trains in

Train-to-train Collisions

Accident 

Scenario

Representative 

Speed 40 mph

Representative 

Speed 60 mph

Representative 

Speed 79 mph

Representative 

Speed 105 mph

P Loco → Loco $502,000 $1,142,000 $1,976,000 $3,495,000

P Loco → P Car $251,000 $571,000 $988,000 $1,747,000

P Loco → F Car $251,000 $571,000 $988,000 $1,747,000

P Car → Loco $1,005,000 $2,284,000 $3,951,000 $6,989,000

Note: Figures are for estimated damage cost for the first train listed in the accident scenario column. 

Passenger Train Intrusion Collisions 

The next step was to derive corresponding estimates for intrusion collisions from rollout events 

and from other forms of intrusion from an adjacent track, such as derailed vehicles and shifted 

loads. The result was that rollout events (from switching misjudgments or improperly secured 

vehicles on an adjacent track) results in casualties and costs per passenger train involved of 15

percent of a train-to-train collision, and other intrusions result in casualties and costs of 30 

percent of train-to-train collisions. The direction of this difference is surprising, but seems to be 

due to collision speeds in rollout accidents being consistently lower that for the other intrusion 

collisions. The figures are given in Table F.4a and F.4b.

Table F.4a. Casualties per Accident in Passenger Trains in Intrusion Collisions 

Accident 

Scenario

Representative 

Speed 40 mph

Representative 

Speed 60 mph

Representative 

Speed 79 mph

Representative Speed 

105 mph

Injuries Fatalities Injuries Fatalities Injuries Fatalities Injuries Fatalities

Rollout 

intrusion

0.019 0.0005 0.031 0.0011 0.054 0.0019 0.096 0.0034

Other 

intrusions

0.038 0.0009 0.063 0.0022 0.108 0.0038 0.191 0.0068

Note: Figures are for estimated fraction of passenger train occupants that become casualties. 
F-9 

Table F.4b. Damage Measured in Dollars per Accident for Passenger Trains in Intrusion 

Collisions

Accident 

Scenario

Representative 

Speed 40 mph

Representative 

Speed 60 mph

Representative 

Speed 79 mph

Representative 

Speed 105 mph

Rollout 

intrusion $113,000 $257,000 $445,000 $786,000 

Other 

intrusions $226,000 $514,000 $889,000 $1,573,000 

Note: Figures are for estimated total damage cost for the collision scenario. 

Passenger Train Derailment Accidents

Estimated of casualties in derailment accidents (overspeed or broken rails) are available from the 

previous study, and the 15-year passenger train accident database was used to obtain accident 

cost estimates in the same way as for collisions. The results are shown in Tables F.5a and F.5b. 

Table F.5a. Casualties per Accident in Passenger Trains in Derailments

Accident 

Scenario

Representative 

Speed 40 mph

Representative 

Speed 60 mph

Representative 

Speed 79 mph

Representative 

Speed 105 mph

Injuries Fatalities Injuries Fatalities Injuries Fatalities Injuries Fatalities

Overspeed 

and

broken rail 

derailments

0.044 0.0004 0.140 0.00186 0.210 0.00338 0.280 0.0045 

Note: Figures are for estimated fraction of passenger train occupants that become casualties. 

Table F.5b. Damage Measured in Dollars per Accident for Passenger Trains in Overspeed

and Broken Rail Derailments

Accident Scenario Representative 

Speed 40 mph

Representative 

Speed 60 mph

Representative 

Speed 79 mph

Representative 

Speed 105 mph

Overspeed and 

Broken Rail 

Derailments

$ 667,000 $ 1,500,000 $ 2,600,000 $ 4,594,000 

Note: Figures are for estimated total damage cost for the collision scenario. 

It is worth noting that the consequence values for derailment accidents are driven by a small 

number of very serious accidents. Although the average cost of all intercity passenger trains 

outside the Northeast Corridor (NEC) is approximately $600,000, about 70 percent of this total is 
F-10

accounted for just 17 accidents having a reported cost over $1 million. The bulk of the 

remainder seem to be minor low speed accidents. The causes of the serious accidents break 

down as follows: 

• Rail failure—4, 

• Buckled track—2, 

• Overspeed—4 (3 due to excessive speed through turnouts and crossovers), 

• Roadbed and structure failures—5, and 

• Vandalism (tampering with track work)—2. 

Although only 15 out of 90 derailments are overspeed and broken rail derailments, they have 

much higher than average consequences because they predominately take place at higher speeds. 

This bias is reflected in the figures given in Tables F.5a and F.5b above.

F.3.2 Freight Train Consequence Data

The freight train data is derived from previous analyses of FRA accident data and reviews of data 

contained in annual FRA accident/incident bulletins. The resulting estimates for damage and 

casualties are given in Tables F.6a and F.6b. 

Table F.6a. Casualties per Freight Train involved in Train Accidents 

Accident 

Scenario

Representative 

Speed

25 mph

Representative 

Speed

40 mph

Representative 

Speed

50 mph

Injuries Fatalities Injuries Fatalities Injuries Fatalities

F Loco → Loco 0.43 0.043 1.0 0.11 1.0 0.17

F Loco → Car 0.35 0.035 0.9 0.09 1.0 0.14

F Car → Loco 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rollout intrusion 0.088 0.009 0.225 0.023 0.352 0.035

Other intrusion 0.088 0.009 0.225 0.023 0.350 0.035

Overspeed and 

broken rail 

derailments

0.056 0.0056 0.144 0.0144 0.225 0.0225 
F-11

Table F.6b. Damage Measured in Dollars per Freight Train Involved in Train Accidents

Accident Scenario

Representative 

Speed

25 mph

Representative 

Speed

40 mph

Representative 

Speed

50 mph

F Loco → Loco $105,000 $270,000 $422,000

F Loco → Car $88,000 $225,000 $352,000

F Car → Loco $44,000 $112,000 $176,000

Rollout intrusion $11,000 $28,000 $44,000

Other intrusion $11,000 $28,000 $44,000

Overspeed and 

broken rail 

derailments

$150,000 $375,000 $586,000 

 Note: Figures are for estimated damage cost for the first train listed in the accident scenario column. 

Estimates for rollout and other intrusions follow the same logic as for passenger trains, but little 

information exists to support a significant difference in consequences between the two categories 

of intrusion. Values of 25 percent of train-to-train collisions were assumed. Estimates for the 

derailment accidents are simply based on the accident data. It is noteworthy that freight train 

derailment accidents tend to be more costly than collisions because more vehicles are derailed 

and damaged. 

F.3.3 Adjusted Consequence Inputs for Sensitivity Analysis

For most analysis cases, the assumption was that accident consequences were unaffected by the 

train control system or timeout and latency values. However, consideration of the NEC ATC 

analysis cases suggested that the speed control feature of ATC would tend to reduce collision 

speeds, and thus the average consequences of accidents in those situations where accidents could 

not be prevented. This effect may be more pronounced with ATC than with PTC or ATS, thus 

shifting the results of comparisons between the train control systems. 

The treatment of accident consequence data on the Model Inputs Worksheets was modified to 

allow t he a nalyst t o a djust c onsequences i n t hese s ensitivity c ase ve rsions of t he m odel. T he 

changes involved the addition of three new tables to perform the following calculations: 

• Table IN-7, which contains reference case consequence inputs formerly provided in Table 

IN-4. 

• Table IN-7A, which contains consequences adjustment factors for each accident scenario and 

representative speed for both passenger and freight trains. 

• Table IN-8, which contains adjusted consequence inputs. This Table has exactly the same 

layout as Tables IN-4 and IN-7. Each entry is obtained by multiplying reference case 

consequences from Table IN-7 by the corresponding adjustment factors from Table IN-7A. 

A single adjustment factor is used for all types of consequence—injuries, fatalities, and 

property damage. 
F-12

• Then, Table IN-4 is modified to copy the modified consequence values from Table IN-8, thus 

replacing the original reference case consequences in this table with adjusted values. The 

rest of the model continues to use Table IN-4 as the consequences look-up table, thus 

incorporating reduced consequences into the analysis. 

Estimates of the adjusted consequence factors for PTC were based on the calculations of reduced 

consequence zones on segment definition and prevention worksheets in the model, specifically 

the results in Tables 1.6a through 1.6f., using an estimate of a 60 percent reduction in 

consequences for the fraction of accidents for which consequences could be reduced. The data 

also guided the estimates for the ATS and ATC reduced severity analysis cases, supported by 

qualitative judgments as to:

a) The fraction of accidents that were not prevented, but severity was reduced, and 

b) The fraction of accidents that were not prevented and severity was not reduced. 
F-13

F.4 Reference Case Accident Frequencies

Accident frequencies are given in Table IN-5a for collision accidents and Table IN-5c for other 

relevant accident types. All frequencies are for the Reference Case (conventional CTC and 

passenger train operation at up to 79 mph), before the implementation of PTC or any other train 

control system. In the different versions of the model, these collisions and accident frequencies 

are modified by accident preventability factors to give estimated frequencies after 

implementation of the different train control systems.

F.4.1 Base Train-to-Train Collision Accident Frequency

This subcategory includes head-on collisions, rear-end collisions and side collisions at junctions 

or the turnouts at the end of a passing siding. Collisions with individual cars or cuts of cars that 

have rolled out onto the main track from a siding or industrial track, or collisions with shifted 

loads or derailed vehicles intruding from an adjacent track are considered intrusion collisions, 

and analyzed separately and addressed separately in the model as are collisions at diamond 

crossings.

Analyses of historical FRA accident data performed in several earlier studies have concluded 

that the overall collision frequency on mainline freight railroads in the United States 

predominantly equipped with ABS or CTC wayside signaling or better is between 0.035 and 

0.045 collisions per million train-miles. These railroads have a mixture of double and single 

track and a small fraction of lines equipped with cab signaling or an ATS system. The average 

traffic density on these routes is estimated to be about 25–30 trains/day. 

The IDOT test corridor differs from the average route from which this data were derived by 

being all single track and having a traffic density of about 8 trains/day, all of which operate in 

the 16 hours during which passenger traffic is using the line. A series of adjustments were 

applied to the overall U.S. average rate to arrive at an estimate of CTC reference rates to be used 

in the IDOT risk model, as follows: 

• A multiplier of 1.5 for an all-single-track line, derived from the analysis of an estimate of the 

mix of single and multitrack territory represented in the source data, and a analysis of 

accident risks by Martland et al.2

• A multiplier of 0.5 to adjust for an approximately halving of traffic density. Analysis based 

on simulations of rail operations suggest that collision rate varies linearly with traffic density, 

assuming collision frequency is a direct function of the number of pass and meet events.

• A multiplier of 1.2 to account for the portion of route equipped with some form of train 

control covered by the source data.

• A multiplier of 0.8 to adjust for the portion of intrusion collisions (mainly raking collisions) 

among the source data.

 

2 “Risk and Train Control: A Framework for Analysis” Carl D. Martland, Ying Zhu, Youssef Lahrech and Joseph 

M. Sussman. Transportation Research Record 1742, 2001.
F-14

The result for train-to-train collision accident frequency on the IDOT test corridor for the 

reference case of CTC train control is: 0.040 × 1.5 × 0.5 ×1.2 × 0.8 = 0.0288. 

Given the uncertainty as to the correct value the multipliers used and the possible effects of local 

conditions (which can include signal positioning, local terrain, the training and experience of 

train crews, local practices regarding crew assignments and rest periods, the types of train 

operated and familiarity of train crews and dispatchers with the line), a base train-to-train 

collision frequency of 0.03 collisions per million train-miles has been used in the model. In 

reality, collision frequency could vary anywhere between 0.02 and 0.04 collisions per million 

train-miles, depending on local conditions. 

F.4.2 Distribution of Collision Accidents by Segment Type and between HeadOn, Rear End, and Side Collisions

The model requires estimates of the distribution of collision accidents between trains operating 

on the same track by train pairs in the collision and between head-on and rear/side collisions. 

These data are entered in Tables IN-5b and 5d. 

Table IN-5d contains collision distributions by train pair in the collision and by season and subcorridor for the reference case. These collision distributions are a function of the traffic mix and 

schedules in each sub-corridor and season, and are estimated as described in Section F.4.3 below. 

The data developed in Section F.4.3 for the PTC analysis case are transferred directly to Table 

IN-5d. Since all trains are equipped in the cab signal and ATC analysis cases, the data are 

simply revised by adding the one train equipped and no train equipped values to the 

corresponding “both trains equipped” values. Train schedules and thus collision probabilities in 

the reference case are held constant for all analysis cases.

Since collision accident consequences vary according to whether the colliding vehicles are 

locomotives, freight cars or passenger cars, it is necessary to estimate the distribution of collision 

accidents by types of colliding vehicle. In this model, the distribution by segment type is also 

required. These estimates were developed partly from historical accident data and partly from a 

review of the pattern of operations on the IDOT test corridor as displayed in string charts. Two 

points about these estimates should be noted: 

• The resulting estimates are a function of the specific traffic operating on the IDOT test 

corridor. The estimates will have to be adjusted if traffic or train schedules change.

• The estimates are for the reference case of CTC operation. Estimates of accident 

preventability for each accident type, segment type, et cetera are calculated and applied in the 

model. 

Accident frequency varies by segment type. A review of collision accidents on single track on 

freight railroads contained in the detailed accident descriptions yielded the following: 

1. In siding—one head-on; 

2. At siding entry/exit switches—one side;
F-15

3. On single track near siding—five head-on (all caused by one train passing a stop signal and 

running through the exit switch of a siding); and

4. On single track, segment type uncertain—one rear-end. 

The results from this review are only indicative—given the very small sample. A more extensive 

review of FRA data combined with information from track charts and railroad timetables would 

be required, but this would be beyond the scope of this effort. This information was interpreted 

as shown in the Table F.7 to estimate collision accident frequency by segment type, assuming an 

overall average frequency of 0.029 collisions/million train-miles: 

Table F.7. Collision Frequency by Segment Type 

Segment 

Type 

Percent 

Segments

Percent 

Collisions

Accident 

Frequency 

Ratio

Adjusted 

Collision

Frequency

CP adjacent 35 65 1.86 0.054

Siding 20 25 1.20 0.035

Plain track 45 10 0.22 0.006

The collision frequencies were further adjusted to reflect the difference between monitored and 

unmonitored sidings. Unmonitored sidings are not track circuited and thus the CTC system will 

not be able to detect the presence of a train in the siding. This means a slightly greater chance of 

a collision occurs at an unmonitored siding than at a monitored siding. No readily available data 

exists to quantify this effect, so a judgmental estimate was applied to yield a final set of collision

frequencies as shown in Table F.8. 

Table F.8. Final Reference Case Collision Frequencies

Segment Type

Collision Frequency

(Collisions per Million TrainMiles)

Siding (monitored) 0.030

Siding (unmonitored) 0.040

CP adjacent (monitored) 0.005

CP adjacent (unmonitored) 0.060

Plain track 0.006

The split between head-on and side/rear-end collisions is also based on this information, 

combined with the following considerations derived from the traffic pattern on the IDOT test 

corridor: 
F-16

• Almost all “encounters” (meets and passes between trains) occur at passes of a pair of trains 

traveling in the opposite direction. This means far more head-on than rear-end collisions will 

occur. Rear end collisions are only possible when trains are traveling well off schedule. 

• In a rear-end collision between a freight and a passenger train, it is usually the passenger 

train that rear-ends the freight, because of the speed differential. 

• In a rear-end collision between two freight trains, equal numbers of trains are where a loco 

hits a freight car and the freight car is hit by a locomotive. 

• The primary scenario for side collisions is at the entry/exit switch of a passing siding, where 

one train has not fully entered the siding (or unwisely backed up as happened in one of the 

accidents included in the detailed descriptions). 

The resulting set of head-on and rear-end/side probabilities used in the analysis are given in 

Table F.9.

Table F.9. Probability of Head-on, Rear-End and Side Collisions

Segment 

Type 

Passenger to 

Passenger Passenger to Freight Freight to Freight

HeadonRear/

side

HeadonRear/side

P into F

Rear/side

F into P

HeadonRear/

side

CP 

adjacent 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.15 0.05 0.75 0.25 

Siding 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.5

Plain 

track 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.25 0.05 

F.4.3 Reference Case Collision Distributions by Train Type

This section provides details of the calculations of the distribution of collisions by train pair that 

are briefly described in Section F.4.2 and listed in Table IN-5d of the Inputs worksheet. Each 

collision is assumed to involve two trains and the challenge is to estimate how these collisions 

are distributed among the possible pairs of trains that could be involved. The collision 

distributions are a function of the traffic mix and schedules in each Sub-corridor and season, and 

are estimated as described in this section The data developed for the PTC analysis case are 

transferred directly to Table IN-5d. Because all trains are equipped in the cab signal and ATC 

analysis cases, the data are simply revised by adding the one train equipped and no train 

equipped values to the corresponding “both trains equipped values. Train schedules and thus 

collision probabilities in the reference case are held constant for all analysis cases.

Two distinct methods were used to estimate the train type distribution: 

• The random approach where collision exposure is a function of the mix of train with no 

consideration of specific train schedules. This approach is appropriate when information is 
F-17

lacking on specific schedules or all or most trains are unscheduled or subject to substantial 

schedule uncertainty; and

• The deterministic approach where string charts of the train schedule are used to count the 

passes and meets between trains to yield collision exposure data. This approach is 

appropriate where a detailed schedule or string charts are available, and trains are expected to 

adhere reasonably closely to their schedules.

This section explains the alternative methods and how they have been applied to provide input 

data for the model. Examples of each approach are provided together with the method used to 

combine the two to provide best estimates for model inputs. 

A comparison between the two approaches to estimating collision probability has been carried 

out using the average traffic mix over the whole corridor and for the “rest of year” traffic mix. 

Too few meets and passes are within one Sub-corridor for a meaningful comparison between the 

methods to be made. Collision probability estimates for the Sub-corridors are made using only 

the random approach with adjustments informed by the results for the comparison for the whole 

corridor. The following paragraphs describe the two methods. All traffic data is taken from the 

data in Section F.2.2, Table F.1. 

The Random Approach (Whole Corridor, Rest of Year) 

By assuming a random traffic pattern and lacking detailed simulations, the relative chance of a 

train of each type being involved in a collision with a train of the same or a different type is a 

function of the numbers of trains in the traffic mix, as given by the relationship: 

[Fraction of trains of a given type] × 

[Fraction of other trains of the same or another type operating on the line]

The calculation is repeated for each pairing of train types, to give the following results: 

Passenger with another passenger: 6/8.1 × 5/7.1 = 0.522 

Passenger with an equipped freight 6/8.1 × 0.87/7.1 = 0.091 

Passenger with an unequipped freight 6/8.1 × 1.23/7.1 = 0.128 

Equipped freight with a passenger 0.87/8.1× 6/7.1 = 0.091 

Equipped freight with another equipped freight: 0.87/8.1 × 0/7.1 = 0 

Equipped freight with an unequipped freight: 0.87/8.1 × 1.23/7.1 = 0.019 

Unequipped freight with a passenger: 1.23/8.1 × 6/7.1 = 0.128 

Unequipped freight with an equipped freight: 1.23/8.1 ×0.87/7.1 = 0.019 

Unequipped freight with another unequipped freight 1.23/8.1 × 0.23/7.1 = 0.005 

 TOTAL 1.000 
F-18

From this, the relative chance of a collision accident involving the different pairings of trains is 

as follows: 

Passenger to passenger: 0.522 

Passenger to equipped freight and vice-versa: 0.182 

Passenger to unequipped freight and vice-versa: 0.256 

Equipped freight to equipped freight: None 

Equipped freight to unequipped freight and vice-versa: 0.038 

Unequipped freight to unequipped freight: 0.005 

The Deterministic Approach (Whole Corridor, Rest of Year)

This approach is used with specific string charts illustrating expected operations on the corridor 

for the whole corridor and “rest of year” traffic. An example of the string charts is shown in 

Figures F.1a and F.1b, taken from the UVA analysis of PTC safety cited in Reference 1.

The trains on the string charts were identified as passenger, equipped freight (the local freight 

trains and unequipped freight) (the long-haul freight and grain trains), and the meets and passes 

shown on the string charts were counted. This exercise gave the following results, averaged over 

a full week’s operations: 

Passenger to passenger: 0.67 

Passenger to equipped freight and vice-versa: 0.18 

Passenger to unequipped freight and vice-versa: 0.11 

Equipped freight to equipped freight: 0.00 

Equipped freight to unequipped freight and vice-versa: 0.00 

Unequipped freight to unequipped freight: 0.05 
F-19

Tuesday 

(Day 2)

Sunday 

(Day 0) Monday 

(Day 1)

Wednesday 

(Day 3)

Figure F.1a. String Charts, Winter Week Sunday–Wednesday
F-20

Thursday 

(Day 4)

Friday 

(Day 5)

Saturday 

(Day 6)

Figure F.1b. String Charts, Winter Week Thursday–Saturday
F-21

Comparison between Approaches

These results suggest that the actual train scheduling in the corridor tends to reduce the potential 

for conflicts between passenger and freight trains—primarily between passenger trains and 

unequipped freight trains. This is because the through freight trains are scheduled in the 

principal gaps between passenger train movements along the IDOT test corridor. However, the 

through freight trains are those most subject to schedule uncertainty, so the real conflict 

probabilities on the corridor will be somewhere between the two approaches. This recognizes 

that schedule variability is likely but not to the extent of producing a completely random traffic 

pattern. 

On the basis of this argument, a reasonable estimate would be the mean of the results from the 

two approaches, as follows: 

Passenger to passenger: 0.60 

Passenger to equipped freight and vice-versa: 0.18 

Passenger to unequipped freight and vice-versa: 0.18 

Equipped freight to equipped freight: 0.00 

Equipped freight to unequipped freight and vice-versa: 0.02 

Unequipped freight to unequipped freight: 0.02 

On the distribution between head-on and rear/side collisions, the string charts show that almost 

every encounter between trains is a “meet” with the two trains traveling in opposite directions. 

Overtaking “passes” are almost nonexistent because of the large spacing between trains traveling 

in the same direction. Thus, head-on collisions will be much more common than read-end 

collisions. However, even at meets at a passing siding, a possibility of a side collision exists, 

where a train attempts to exit the siding when the train approaching from the opposite direction 

has not fully entered the siding. 

Where passenger trains and freight trains move at markedly different speed, rear-end collisions 

between passenger and freight trains are almost always involve a passenger train rear-ending a 

freight train.

Estimates for Sub-corridors and Seasons 

Because it is not practical to compare the two methods for individual Sub-corridors and seasons, 

the approach is to use the random method and then make judgmental adjustments informed by 

the results of the comparison described above. The adjustments generally increase the 

probability of collisions between two passenger trains and reduce the probability of collisions 

between passenger and freight trains. The results are shown in the Tables F.10a and F.10b for 

the unadjusted and adjusted probabilities. 
F-22

Table F.10a. Unadjusted Collision Probabilities from Random Calculation 

Subcorridor Season Collision Probabilities by Types of Train*

P-P P-EF P-UF EF-EF EF-UF UF-UF

Joliet Summer 0.63 0.27 0.09 0 0.02 0

Rest of year 0.63 0.27 0.09 0 0.02 0

Bloomington Summer 0.63 0.27 0.09 0 0.02 0

Rest of year 0.50 0.21 0.24 0 0.04 0

Springfield Summer 0.75 0.19 0.06 0 0.01 0

Rest of year 0.50 0.13 0.33 0 0.03 0.02

*P = passenger, EF = equipped freight, UF = unequipped freight 

Table F.10b. Adjusted Collision Probabilities from Random Calculation 

Subcorridor Season Collision Probabilities by Types of Train*

P-P P-EF P-UF EF-EF EF-UF UF-UF

Joliet Summer 0.71 0.22 0.07 0 0 0

Rest of year 0.71 0.22 0.07 0 0 0

Bloomington Summer 0.77 0.22 0.07 0 0 0

Rest of year 0.60 0.16 0.16 0 0.08 0

Springfield Summer 0.80 0.15 0.05 0 0 0

Rest of year 0.62 0.12 0.18 0 0.05 0.03

*P = passenger, EF =- equipped freight, UF = unequipped freight 

The figures in Table F.10b are transferred to Table IN-5d of the Inputs worksheet. 

F.4.4 Intrusion Collision Frequencies

Intrusion collisions, a catch-all category, include poorly secured or mishandled rail vehicles 

rolling on to or fouling the main line at a turnout, as well as intrusions by derailed vehicles and 

shifted loads. 

Intrusions, due to shifted loads or a derailment on an adjacent track, are rarely detectable by track 

circuits and cannot be prevented or mitigated by PTC in the absence of an intrusion detection 

system. They are usually classified on FRA accident reports as raking or obstruction collisions. 

Rollout events differ from the derailed vehicle or shifted load intrusions in that they will be 

detected by track circuits or switch position monitors and possibly mitigated or prevented by the 

signaling or train control system. Rollout events are usually classified by FRA as head-on, side 

or rear-end collision. It is usually necessary to review the narrative on the accident reports to 

determine if a collision was between two trains operating under the control of the train crew and 

dispatcher or an unintended intrusion from a connecting track. 
F-23

Intrusion accidents have been analyzed with regard to both frequency and consequences in their 

relationship to train-to-train collisions. The frequency of both train-to-train collisions is a direct 

function of traffic levels and the level of railroad activity generally. Estimated collision 

frequencies for passenger and freight trains are given in Table F.11. 

Table F.11: Frequencies for Rollout and Intrusion Collisions

Train Type Collision Type Fraction of TrainTrain Collisions

Frequency

(Collisions per

Million TrainMiles)

Passenger Rollout 0.3 0.0086

Other intrusion 0.5 0.0144

Freight Rollout 0.5 0.0144

Other intrusion 0.3 0.0086

These estimates were derived from the 15-year database of passenger train accidents and from a 

5-year database of accidents on Class I freight railroads. Compared with passenger trains, freight 

trains appear to have rather more rollout collisions, mainly because some of these accidents 

occur during en-route switching. The fewer other intrusion accidents seemingly because the 

lower speeds and greater robustness of freight equipment. The same accidents occur, but more 

fall below the reporting threshold. 

F.4.5 Diamond Collision Frequencies

Estimating a collision rate for diamond accidents presents a problem for the analyst, given the 

scarcity of historic accident data and the lack of information on traffic and train speeds on rail 

lines crossing the IDOT test corridor at diamond crossings. To try to minimize the uncertainties, 

two different approaches to estimating collision frequency (collisions per million IDOT test 

corridor train passes) were attempted, as described below.

From historic accident data: A review of the FRA database for the years 1995–2002 (6 years) 

yielded a probable six diamond collisions on main track, three of which were in Illinois. This 

suggests that Illinois is uniquely exposed to diamond crossing collision risk, probably because of 

the unique intersection of north-to-south and east-to-west rail routes in the State and the flat 

terrain. It is unlikely that individual diamond crossings in the State are uniquely risky. The 

number of train-miles operated in Illinois can be roughly estimated from the fraction of national 

railroad route miles in Illinois (5.15 percent) and the national average total annual train-miles 

(508 million, including non-Class I railroads). This gives 26.0 million train-miles/year and 208 

train-miles over 8 years. Then, the frequency calculation goes as follows: 
F-24

• Crossings spaced every 40 miles (as in the IDOT test corridor); 

• Number of crossing passes over 8 years, 208/40 = 5.2 million; 

• Number of collisions, three, over 8 years; and

• Collision frequency, 3/5.2 or 0.58/million crossing passes. 

By analogy with other collision accidents: The cause of diamond crossing collisions is 

predominantly failure to observe the interlocking signals controlling movement through the 

crossing, very similar to the cause of the majority of other collision accidents. Therefore, the 

frequency of diamond crossing accidents (for example per million encounters with crossing 

trains) is likely to be similar to the corresponding frequency of collisions between meeting or 

passing trains at sidings. The frequency calculation goes as follows: 

• Approximately two and one-half encounters/day are on the IDOT test corridor and with 

approximately eight one-way trips or 936 train-miles/day, giving an encounter frequency of 

once every 374 miles.

• Average collision frequency on the IDOT test corridor is estimated to be 0.06 trains in 

collisions/million train-miles, based on historic data, which translates to .06 × 374 = 22.44 

trains in collisions per million encounters.

• A corresponding encounter at a diamond is when a train approaches the diamond on both 

lines at the same time and a collision would result if one train fails to observe the signals 

protecting the diamond. 

• The probability of this double approach is obtained by multiplying the fractions of total time 

that trains on each route will occupy the crossing. If 8 trains/16 hours are on the IDOT test 

corridor, an average of 15 trains/16 hours on the crossing route and each train occupies the 

crossing for 5 minutes, this probability is: 

 [(5 × 8)/(16 × 60)] × [(5 × 15)/(16 × 60)] = 0.0417 × 0.0781 = 0.00326 

• The collision frequency at a diamond is then given by 22.44 × 0.00326 = 0.073 IDOT test 

corridor trains in collisions per million crossing passes.

Clearly, a 8:1 discrepancy exists between the two approaches, although it would be easy to 

reduce this to the order of 2:1 by making different traffic assumptions and assuming that the run 

of three collisions in Illinois over 8 years is unique and greatly exaggerates the long-term 

average. The result also suggests that the risk collisions at diamonds is somehow higher than at 

other points of potential conflict. For the model, a figure between extremes of 0.15 has been 

selected. This value will be used throughout the analysis and is unlikely to have a significant 

influence on the differential between the different train control systems. 

F.4.6 Frequencies for Other Accident Types

Accident frequencies are required for the two types of derailment accident of interest—broken 

rails, overspeed and for casualties due to work zone intrusions. 
F-25

Broken Rail Derailments

The estimated frequencies for broken rail derailment taken from previous analyses FRA accident 

data are given below: 

Passenger: 0.0167/million train-miles and

Freight: 0.0556/million train-miles. 

The passenger frequency was for passenger trains operating on freight railroads. Passenger train 

derailments frequencies are substantially lower than that for freight trains due to the combined 

effect of higher axle loads and the higher number of load cycles imposed on the track by freight 

trains.

Overspeed Derailments

The estimated frequencies, obtained directly from the databases for overspeed derailments are: 

Passenger: 0.0110/million train-miles and

Freight: 0.0160/million train-miles. 

The IDOT test corridor has few permanent speed restrictions due to curves, and overspeed 

derailments in the corridor may be less that the frequencies derived from national data. 

However, the majority of derailments seem to be because of a failure to observe speed limits 

when passing through turnouts, such as at a crossover or entry to a passing siding, so the 

reduction in accidents on the IDOT test corridor may not be significant. The national figures 

will be used for the initial model runs.

Work Zone Intrusions

The number of on-track workers killed by moving equipment while performing track and 

infrastructure maintenance (including signal maintainers) is about five individuals per year and 

having approximately 10 times as many injuries. Not all these events occurred in a formally 

designated work zone or involved the operation of on-track maintenance or inspection 

equipment, or where an active train violated a work zone. Some maintenance-of-way worker 

casualties are a result of the person failing to keep clear of trains operating correctly on an active 

track. Note that these do not include casualties or damage in collisions between on-track 

maintenance equipment and active trains, which are captured in the analysis of collisions in the 

model. 

To provide an estimate of the benefits of enforcement of work zones, the analysis will assume 

that approximately half of these fatalities are potentially preventable by PTC, but not by cab 

signals and ATC. 

The casualty frequency for on-track workers is the number of casualties divided by aggregate 

mainline train-miles operated as follows:

Fatalities: 5/600 = 0.0083/million train-miles and

Injuries: 50/600 = 0.083/million train-miles. 
F-26

These values are assumed to apply to 50 mph for freight trains and 40 mph for quieter passenger 

trains and are adjusted up or down in proportion to speed. The logic for speed sensitivity is that 

lower speeds give the worker more time to escape from the approaching train, rather than any 

assumption that accidents at lower speeds are less injurious. 

The results are given in Table F.12 below 

Table F.12. Estimated Casualty Frequencies for On-Track Worker Casualties

Train Type 

Representative 

Speed

(mph)

Frequency per Million

Train-Miles

Fatalities Injuries

Passenger

40 0.0083 0.083

60 0.0124 0.124

79 0.0163 0.163

105 0.0218 0.218

Freight

25 0.0042 0.042

40 0.0066 0.066

50 0.0083 0.083
F-27

F.5 Preventability Estimates

In this analysis, preventability is defined as the fraction of accidents that would have occurred 

with the reference case system (CTC with block and interlocking signals) that are prevented by 

the specific train control systems analyzed in this case NAJPTC cab signals with ATS or NEC 

cab signals with ATC. In the case of collision accidents, the preventability factor is applied to 

the guilty train that failed to observe a wayside signal or operating authority. All other accident 

scenarios only involve one active train. Preventability is simply applied to the reference case 

accident frequency to obtain an adjusted frequency for the train control system being analyzed. 

The analysis and considerations, used to derive preventability estimates, are described in the 

following paragraphs, which include a discussion of the effects of varying latency and timeout 

for the NAJPTC system. Note that the effects of timeout and latency on train-to-train collision 

frequency are analyzed on Worksheet 1 and explained in Appendix A. 

F.5.1 Collision Preventability

Calculation of preventability estimates for train-to-train collisions that typically involve two 

active trains are somewhat more complex than for other accident scenarios, which involve a 

single active train. All train-to-train collisions involve a guilty train, which failed to observe 

signals and/or operating authorities, and an innocent train that made no such errors 

Preventability factors are applied to the guilty train, if equipped with the train control system, 

and to an innocent train only in reference to calculations as to whether actions by the innocent 

train can prevent or mitigate a collision. In reference case head-on collision accidents and in 

head-to-side, where trains of different types are involved in a collision, each train is assumed to 

be guilty 50 percent of the time. In the case of rear-end collisions between a passenger train and 

a freight train, reference case guilt is weighted to the passenger train, because passenger trains 

are generally moving faster that freight trains. 

The following paragraphs discuss how preventability factors were developed for train-to-train 

collisions. 

NAJPTC System

When functioning normally, the NAJPTC system will prevent almost all collision accidents 

where an equipped train could have failed to observe signals or operating authorities. Situations, 

where PTC might not prevent a collision, are:

• Where a fault outside the NAJPTC system prevents the expected response from the train, for 

example a fault in the brake system or unusually slick rail.

• An undetected fault in the NAJPTC system itself, so that it fails to deliver the correct 

message to the train. This scenario could include a fault that results in a false all clear 

(expected to be very rare) or perhaps more likely an error in reference data on which the 

system relies, such a track map data, braking profiles and the like. 

• A fault in the conventional signal and communications systems on which the NAJPTC 

system relies for some of its input data, especially the location of unequipped trains. 
F-28

• In collisions with self-propelled on-rail inspection or maintenance equipment that does not 

shunt track circuits. If the equipment is also not PTC-equipped, the system has no way of 

recognizing its location except by manual entry by the dispatcher. Such accidents are 

included among train-to-train collision accidents, unless the equipment is located in a 

designated work zone. 

• Lower speed collisions in yard or station areas where implementation of full NAJPTC 

functions are impractical (for example where it would enforce a stop before a train had fully 

entered a terminal track).

These considerations specifically exclude two situations where NAJPTC cannot prevent an 

accident and that are considered elsewhere in the model:

• Where the NAJPTC and thus a train’s response to a specific hazardous situation is delayed 

by latency or timeout. This situation is analyzed in detail on Worksheet 1 of the model. 

• Where NAJPTC has been isolated and is not in service. The train will be operating under a 

fall-back operating state, which is presumed to be CTC. Because the fall-back operating 

state is common to all control systems and presumed to apply to the same fraction of trainmiles operated in all analysis cases, it is not analyzed in these versions of the model. 

Very little data exists on which to base the preventability estimate for a PTC-equipped train. 

Experience with the ATC system on the NEC suggests that almost all accidents are because of 

events that the ATC system could not prevent, given its functional capabilities and limitations at 

the time and location of the accident. For this analysis preventability for the normal operating 

state was set at 90 percent or 0.9, which means that PTC would prevent 90 percent of failures to 

observe signals and authorities leading to a collision that would have occurred with the reference 

case CTC system. This is believed to be a conservative estimate. The true preventability 

probably lies between 90 and 95 percent. To explore the effects of uncertainty in estimating 

preventability, risk model runs were carried out with preventability at 88 percent for a low bound 

and 94 percent for a high bound. Collisions that are not prevented will be covered by one of the 

situations described above. 

Union Pacific Cab Signal and ATS System

The UP cab signal and ATS system provides an in-cab warning whenever the train enters a 

signal block under a more restrictive signal aspect. The system is directional in that the signal 

aspect is conveyed by coded track circuits to the train from the signal the train is approaching. If 

another train or an obstruction interrupts the track circuit between the signal and the approaching 

train, the equipped train will immediately receive the most restrictive aspect. However, once 

acknowledged, the UP system does not enforce signal aspect speeds or a stop before reaching a 

signal at danger. This means that a train equipped with the cab signal/ATS system will prevent 

fewer accidents and will have a lower preventability factor than one with the NAJPTC system.

In an analysis of accidents with and without the cab signal, the ATS system on the UP was used 

to estimate the preventability factors. By using 6 recent years’ worth of FRA accident data, the 

number of train-to-train collision accidents on lines with and without cab signals/ATS was

compared with the number of derailment accidents on the same line. The analysis was confined 
F-29

to train accidents on mainline tracks of FRA Class 3 or better and with ABS or better signaling. 

Accidents on lower-class tracks, yard, and industrial track and on dark territory were not 

included. The rationale was that the occurrence of derailment accidents would be an indicator of 

traffic volume on the lines, and would be unaffected by the presence or absence of cab 

signals/ATS. The results of the comparison are given in Table F.13. 

Table F.13: Comparison of Collision and Derailment Accidents on Union Pacific 

Accident Type CTC and ABS Cab Signal with ATS

Train-to-train collisions 33 2

Derailments 497 83

The results for CTC and ABS territory show 15.1 derailments for each collision. If this ratio is 

applied to cab signal/ATS territory, the result suggests that 5.51 collisions with CTC and ABS 

would have been on the same territory. Thus, ATS has reduced collisions from 5.51 to 2, 

implying a preventability of 63 percent. A check of the accident reports for the two collisions 

with cab signals confirmed that both were genuine collisions with operational ATS. In both 

cases, the ATS warning was acknowledged but the crew failed to observe restricted speed 

operating rules and failed to stop at the next signal.

Obviously, this result is indicative rather than conclusive, and ideally, the analysis should be 

extended to a larger sample. Given the uncertainty because of the very small sample, risk model 

runs were performed with preventability values between 60 and 80 percent. A model run at 90 

percent was also carried out to show the comparison between NAJPTC and cab signals/ATS, if 

the assumption is made that no difference occurs between the two systems in their effectiveness 

in preventing collisions. 

NEC Cab Signals with ATC

The NEC cab signal and ATC system first provide an in-cab warning whenever a train enters a 

signal block under a more restrictive signal aspect. If the engineer does not initiate braking to 

reduce speed down to that corresponding to the approaching signal aspect, a penalty brake 

application will be initiated. ATC continues to monitor both speed and brake setting to ensure 

that braking effort is increased up to normal service braking, and the brake is not released until 

speed is reduced to that corresponding to the approaching signal aspect. The brake may also be 

released if the signal clears to allow a speed higher than current speed. ATC does not enforce 

speeds below restricted speed (20 mph), This allows a train to approach a stop signal rather than 

being forced to stop before reaching the signal. 

Until the Chase, MD, collision in 1987, where a freight locomotive consist passed a red 

interlocking signal and entered a track occupied by an approaching passenger train traveling at 

high speed, freight train were only equipped with cab signals and not speed control. After this 

accident, freight trains were required to be fitted with a version of speed control called the 
F-30

Locomotive Speed Limiter (LSL) that enforced braking at graduated braking rates designed to 

minimize risk of damaging longitudinal shocks during service or penalty braking. 

The analysis assumes that all freight and passenger trains will be equipped with ATC on the 

IDOT test corridor, including LSL or an equivalent on freight trains. 

Preventability estimates for train-to-train collisions with ATC were derived from an analysis of 

the collision history on the NEC. This analysis showed that main line passenger train collisions 

on the NEC away from major passenger terminals are very rare. A review of FRA accident data 

for the NEC over the period 1986 to 2000 identified about five passenger trains in train-to-train 

collisions outside of large passenger stations. Some ambiguity about this number occurs because 

it can be a judgment call as to whether the accident occurred in a terminal area (where 

conflicting movements are common), whether or not the accident was a rollout event, and for the 

earlier period up to about 1990, whether the accident would have happened at all if the freight 

train involved had been equipped with full ATC instead of just cab signals. Speed control was 

required on all freight trains after the Chase, MD, collision in 1987. 

Assuming five trains in collisions over 15 years and average annual train-miles of 15.5 million 

gives a frequency of trains in collisions of 0.0215 trains in collisions per million train-miles. 

This is achieved with a traffic density on each main track of approximately 55 trains/day in 

passenger train operating hours. Using the same calculations as that in Section F4.1 and 

changing the traffic density multiplier from 0.5 to 2.2 gives a frequency of 0.127 collisions per 

million train-miles for the NEC operated with CTC and at conventional speed. Thus the 

preventability can be calculated as [1 – 0.0215/0.127] or 0.83. 

As with the ATS preventability analysis, obviously numerous potential sources of error are in 

this calculation given the small sample and the sweeping assumptions used. However the results 

are credible. ATC is clearly highly effective at preventing main line collision accidents, and can 

be expected to show substantial improvement over ATS but not reach the performance of 

NAJPTC with its enforcement down to an absolute stop. A base estimate for train-to-train 

collision preventability for ATC of 0.85 was used in the model, with high and low values of 0.8 

and 0.9 for the sensitivity analysis. 

Preventability values applying to an equipped train for NAJPTC, cab signal with ATS and cab 

signal with ATC analysis cases are entered into Table IN-6b on the Inputs Worksheets for the 

corresponding risk analysis model. 

F.5.2 Preventability for Other Accident Scenarios

Preventability values for all other accident scenarios are entered into Table IN-6a of the Inputs 

Worksheet. The derivation of the individual preventability values are described for each 

accident scenario and described in the following paragraphs. 
F-31

Intrusion Collisions

Two types of intrusion collisions occur for which preventability values are required: 

• Rollout events, where a car or cars rollout onto the active main line at a connecting switch 

(usually from an industry or yard track) into the path of an approaching train. The cars may 

have been poorly secured or mishandled during switching, and any derails positioned to 

guard against such events may not have been set or were ineffective. Rollout events are 

usually detectable by the main line track circuits, and preventability depends on the location 

of the rollout event relative to the approaching train, the type of track circuit, and timeout and 

latency. The response of the train control systems will be: 

- NAJPTC in a normal operating state: The intrusion will be detected by the track circuit 

only if the equipped train has not entered the signal block in which the rollout occurred. 

The event would also be detected by a switch position monitor if so equipped. If 

detected, PTC will send a zero speed message to the train and prevention then depends on 

the location of the equipped train relative to the rollout event. 

- NAJPTC in timeout: Preventability is a function of whether the event can be detected by 

PTC (as for the normal operating state, and timeout. For the higher timeout values, 

comparable to or greater than the time taken by a passenger train to travel through a 

signal block, PTC in timeout is unable to prevent an accident. For lower timeout values, 

preventability increases as timeout reduces.

- Cab signal and ATS: Because of the directional feature of coded track circuits, any 

intrusion ahead of an approaching train will interrupt the track circuit and cause a 

warning and a restricted speed aspect to be displayed in the cab, even after the equipped 

train has entered the block in which the intrusion occurred. Preventability depends on the 

ability of the train to stop in the distance between the train the train’s position at the time 

of the rollout event and the location of the event. Preventability values with cab signals 

and ATS will generally be greater than with PTC.

- Cab signal and ATC: ATC uses the same directional coded track circuits as ATS. If the 

track circuit is interrupted by a rollout intrusion, a restricted speed aspect will be shown 

in the cab and ATC will enforce braking down to restricted speed. 

• Intrusions unrelated to connecting switches, caused by shifted loads on or derailments of 

vehicles on an adjacent track These events are rarely detectable by track circuits, and only a 

few can be prevented by either PTC or cab signal/ATS systems. The possibility of 

prevention depends on whether the derailed vehicle or shifted load interrupts the track circuit, 

triggering a warning or stop command to be transmitted to the train. Alternatively, an alert 

train crew responsible for the derailed vehicles may have had time to apply a shunt to the 

active track to warn approaching trains of the obstruction. If the track circuit is interrupted, 

then the logic applied to estimating preventability is the same as for rollout events as 

described above.

The central estimate for preventability for rollout intrusions for the NAJPTC system was derived 

from the values for preventability derived from the calculations on Worksheet 1 for 

preventability for a collision involving an unequipped train violating a block or signal. Typical 

Worksheet 1 values were reduced to account for the fact that the rollout events can take place 
F-32

anywhere in a signal block., instead of at the entry point to the block. PTC also adds an 

increment of preventability when the equipped train is in the block before rollout location. The 

equipped train will receive a zero speed command at the time of the violation. An unequipped 

train will only become aware of the problem when the crew sees the block signal controlling 

entry to the block where the violation is located. 

On the basis of these arguments, preventability was estimated to be 30 percent (0.3) for NAJPTC 

in the normal operating state and with latency at 10 seconds. Preventability was estimated to be 

zero with 120 seconds timeout, implying no improvement over an unequipped train responding 

to wayside signal indications. Preventability for other intrusion collisions, not associated with a 

connecting switch, was estimated to be much lower, at 5 percent (0.05) for NAJPTC in a normal 

operating state with latency at 10 seconds. Very little readily available information exists from 

which to base this estimate of the fraction of other intrusion events that interrupt track circuits 

and thus could potentially be PTC preventable. This is an attempt at a very rough estimate 

simply based on the perception that the value will be much lower that for rollout events. 

Preventability estimates for other latency and timeout values were interpolated between the

limits for PTC in its normal and timeout operating states to give the values shown in Table F.14. 

Table F.14. NAJPTC Intrusion Collision Preventability Estimates

Latency or 

Timeout

Value

(seconds)

Preventability Values

Rollout 

Intrusions Other Intrusions

Latency

5 0.32 0.054

10 0.30 0.050

20 0.26 0.043

Timeout 

20 0.26 0.043

60 0.10 0.015

120 and above 0.00 0.000

As stated above, ATS and ATC will both be more effective in preventing intrusion collisions 

because of its quicker response and the ability to respond when the approaching train is in the 

same block as the intrusion. For rollout intrusions the improvement may be limited because the 

intrusion may be detected by PTC via a switch position monitor, leading to an estimate of 35

percent, corresponding to the basic cab signal analysis case for which preventability for train-totrain collisions is set at 70 percent. For other intrusion collisions, the improvement over 

NAJPTC will be greater because these are always undetectable by PTC after the equipped train 

has entered the same block as the intrusion. A preventability of 0.10 was estimated for cab 

signals/ATS for other (nonrollout) intrusions. The corresponding estimates for ATC are 0.43 for 

rollout intrusions and 0.12 for other intrusions, reflecting the greater likelihood of a response to 

the restricted speed warning with speed enforcement. 
F-33

Given the uncertainty of preventability estimates for both ATS and ATC, analysis model runs 

were carried out with high and low values of preventability. In doing this, intrusion collision 

preventability estimates were adjusted in proportion to corresponding variations in train-to-train 

collision preventability. The final preventability estimates for train-to-train and intrusion 

collisions are shown in Tables F.15a and b for ATS and ATC respectively. 

Table F.15a. Cab Signal with ATS Intrusion Collision Preventability Estimates

Train-to-Train 

Collision

Rollout 

Intrusions Other Intrusions

0.60 0.30 0.09

0.70 0.35 0.10

0.80 0.40 0.11

Table F.15b. Cab Signal with ATC Intrusion Collision Preventability Estimates 

Train-to-Train 

Collision

Rollout 

Intrusions Other Intrusions

0.80 0.40 0.11

0.85 0.43 0.12

0.90 0.45 0.12
F-34

Overspeed Derailments

The NAJPTC system will enforce all types of speed limits, including permanent and temporary 

slow orders, speed limits when taking the diverging track at a turnout, posted speed limits, and 

the maximum speed for a specific type of train. Except for the kinds of failure described under 

the discussion of train-to-train collisions, NAJPTC will always enforce speed limits and the 

preventability will be comparable to that for equipped trains in train-to-train collisions. Timeout 

and latency will have only a limited effect on preventability value, since the speed limits will 

normally be entered or transmitted to the on-board PTC installation well before the train reaches 

the speed-limited location. Few instances will occur where the speed limit data are transmitted 

to the train shortly before the train reaches the point at which the limit applies, and thus where 

latency or timeout could affect preventability. Preventability for trains equipped with NAJPTC 

will be high, comparable to for train-to-train collisions, and has been conservatively estimated at 

80 percent. With NAJPTC in timeout of 120 seconds, preventability was conservatively 

estimated at 50 percent. Preventability values for other latency and timeout values was estimated 

by interpolating between these limits, but not reducing preventability further with timeout 

exceeding 120 seconds as shown in Table F.16. At 120-second timeout, the assumption is that 

no possibility of preventing overspeed events where data are transmitted shortly before reaching 

the speed-limited location, but all other limits will be enforced regardless if timeout.

Table F.16. NAJPTC Overspeed Derailment Preventability Estimates

Latency or 

Timeout

Value

(seconds)

Overspeed Derailment 

Preventability

Latency

5 0.82

10 0.80

20 0.76

Timeout 

20 0.76

60 0.60

120 and above 0.50

Preventability is zero for cab signal cases, since that system does not enforce civil speed limits or 

temporary slow orders. 

Broken Rail Derailments

A broken rail, which results in a total break, will interrupt track circuits and be detected by both 

PTC and the cab signal/ATS system. In the case of NAJPTC, the break will interrupt the 

conventional track circuit and indicate that the signal block with the break is occupied. If the 

approaching train has not entered the signal block containing the break, then the train will 

receive a zero speed command before entering the block. If a PTC-equipped train is already 

occupying the block containing the break at the time of the break, then the break will not be 

detected and an accident cannot be prevented or mitigated.
F-35

Again, little information exists from which to base a preventability estimate for rail failure 

accidents. The most helpful comes from an effort conducted for the FRA’s Rail Safety Advisory 

Committee’s PTC subcommittee in which a panel of experts reviewed accident descriptions to 

identify PTC-preventable accidents. Of those identified, about 17 percent were rail failures, 

mostly designated as “maybe” preventable. Possibly, half of these would actually be 

preventable. Knowing accident frequencies and preventability values for the other types of PTCpreventable accidents and the frequency for rail-flaw accidents it is possible to work backwards 

to a very rough estimate that four percent of rail-flaw accidents would be PTC-preventable with 

PTC in the normal operating state. This estimate was adjusted up and down to reflect the effects 

of timeout and latency as shown in Table F.17. By assuming that with 120-second latency, 

NAJPTC would be unable to respond to a broken rail any more effectively than a conventional 

track circuit and block signals. 

Table F.17. NAJPTC Broken Rail Derailment Preventability Estimates

Latency or Timeout Value

(seconds)

Broken Rail 

Derailment 

Preventability

Latency

5 0.043

10 0.040

20 0.034

Timeout 

20 0.034

60 0.013

120 and above 0.000

The cab signal/ATS and cab signal/ATC systems are potentially more effective against these 

kinds of rail failure derailments. Directionally coded track circuits will detect the break and 

cause a restricted speed aspect to be transmitted to the on-board system, even after the equipped 

train has entered the signal block containing the break. However, in many cases, the equipped 

train will be too close to the break to avoid an accident. Therefore, preventability for broken rail 

derailments was estimated to be 0.06, a 50 percent increase over the equivalent value for the 

NAJPTC system, for the basic cab signal analysis case for which preventability for train-to-train 

collisions is set at 70 percent. In addition, preventability for broken rail derailments as with 

train-train collisions will be affected by the level of compliance with restricted speed cab signal 

indications after acknowledging the warning. To capture this effect, broken rail derailment 

preventability values were adjusted to parallel corresponding variations in train-to-train collision 

preventability as shown in Tables F.18a and F.18b for ATS and ATC, respectively. As for 

intrusion collisions, high and low bound are shown for broken rail preventability estimates as 

well as a central estimate corresponding to 70 percent preventability for ATS train-to-train 

collisions and 85 percent preventability for ATC train-to-train collisions. 
F-36

Table F.18a. Cab Signal with ATS Broken Rail Derailment Preventability Estimates

Train-to-Train Collision Broken Rail Derailment

0.60 0.05

0.70 0.06

0.80 0.07

Table F.18b. Cab Signal with ATC Broken Rail Derailment Preventability Estimates

Train-to-Train Collision Broken Rail Derailment

0.80 0.07

0.85 0.08 

0.90 0.08

Work Zone Violations 

The NAJPTC system possesses the capability of enforcing work zone restrictions, as described in 

Section F.4.6. This capability will prevent a train entering a designated work zone. It will not 

prevent work zone and track work accidents having other causes, for example:

• On-track maintenance or inspection work not protected by a designated work zone, 

• On-track crews failing to keep within the designated zone, and 

• Communications mix-ups or errors leading to a mismatch between the actual location of the 

on-track crew and the location communicated to the PTC system. An error of this type with 

conventional signaling and voice communications recently caused two track worker fatalities 

in the Boston area due to confusion over which of two tracks were occupied by the work 

zone. 

Latency and timeout are unlikely to have a significant effect on the preventability of work zone 

violations. Work zone data are communicated to the train either at the start of the trip or en 

route. In either case, the data are likely to be communicated well before the train nears the 

location of the work zone. Thus, communications delays cannot—in most cases—affect the 

train’s response to a work zone requirement. 

Resources did not permit a detailed analysis of work zone injuries and fatalities. A simple scan 

of readily available descriptions of casualties to on-track workers on main tracks suggested that 

50 percent of these would be prevented by PTC in a normal operating state with a latency of 10 

seconds. This estimate was reduced to a very conservative 25 percent for timeout of 120 

seconds. In general, communications delays will have a limited effect on preventability, because 

work zone details are generally downloaded to the train at the start of the trip and only a few will 

be communicated shortly before the train reaches the zone. Preventability for other latency and 

timeout values are shown in Table F.19.
F-37

Table F.19. NAJPTC Work Zone Violation Preventability Estimates 

Latency or Timeout Value

(seconds) 

Work Zone 

Violation 

Preventability

Latency

5 0.500

10 0.500

20 0.465

Timeout 

20 0.465

60 0.330

120 and above 0.250

Preventability is zero for the cab signal/ATS and cab signal/ATC systems, which do not have the 

capability to store and enforce work zone restrictions. 

Grade Crossing Collisions

The NAJPTC system interacts with active rail/highway grade crossing warning systems in two 

ways:

• As a passenger train approaches the crossing at speeds exceeding 79 mph, the NAJPTC 

system transmits train speed and location to the crossing system, enabling the crossing 

warning system to activate and provide highway traffic with a consistent time between 

activating the warning systems and the passage of the train over the crossing, irrespective of 

train speed. This feature avoids the need to replace previously installed conventional 

constant warning time systems designed for speeds up to 79 mph. NAJPTC does not add a 

safety capability in this case; it is a substitute for a more cumbersome alternative.

• If the crossing fails to acknowledge receipt of PTC-based warning system activation message 

or fails to activate crossing warning systems, then a failure message is transmitted to the 

train. On receipt of the failure message the train must reduce speed as much as possible 

before reaching the crossing. Since the crossing warning system cycle is usually initiated 

only 25 to 30 seconds before the train reached the crossings it will not normally be possible 

to stop. However, the speed reduction will reduce the likelihood or consequences of a 

collision. Timeout and latency will reduce the effectiveness of PTC to prevent crossing 

collisions by delaying the exchange of messages between the crossing systems and the trains. 

Preventability will be zero for higher values of timeout, which exceed 60 seconds. 

In the case of preexisting crossing warning system failures, PTC will enforce the requirement to 

stop before moving over the crossing with flagger protection. 

The starting point for estimating grade crossing collision preventability is the fraction of crossing 

collisions where warning systems failure was a factor. From FRA data, this is estimated to be 

about 10 percent. A more timely notification to the train of the failure could potentially prevent 

a collision at the crossing or reduce collision severity to below the FRA reporting threshold for a 

train accident. An estimate of a four-percent reduction in crossing collisions reportable as train 
F-38

accidents was used for PTC in the normal operating stare. In the timeout operating state, 

preventability is assumed to be zero because the system would be unable to respond in any way 

before the train had traveled between the point of first contact with the crossing and the crossing 

itself. Interpolation between estimated for normal and timeout operating states was used to 

obtain estimates for other timeout and latency values.

The resulting preventability estimates (for both passenger and freight trains) are summarized in 

Table F.20. 

Table F.20. NAJPTC Grade Crossing Collision Preventability Estimates

Latency or Timeout Value (seconds)

Grade Crossing 

Collision 

Preventability

Latency

5 0.043

10 0.040

20 0.034

Timeout 

20 0.034

60 0.013

120 and above 0.000

The cab signal/ATS and cab signal/ATC systems do not communicate with grade crossing 

warning systems in any way, thus preventability is zero.

Final Note 

The preventability estimates for many of the accident scenarios other than train-to-train 

collisions are necessarily approximate. Although a more indepth analysis of each scenario is 

technically possible, leading to better supported estimates, this could not be done within the time 

and budget available for this effort. A more indepth analysis would be warranted if: 

• The analysis is to be used as part of a formal submission to FRA for safety acceptance of the 

NAJPTC system, or 

• The preventability performance of the NAJPTC system in these other accident scenarios is 

critical to showing that this system is equivalent to or better than the base case system, cab 

signals with ATS and cab signals with ATC. 

Despite the approximate nature of the analyses, the analysis is thought to present a fair picture of 

the relative safety performance of the two systems analyzed.
Appendix G: Model Calculations 

G-1
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financia

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.20937 0.00800 9112 54058

Intrusion Collisions 0.01054 0.29310 0.01041 12560 73109Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00219 0.00007 77 491Overspeed 0.00118 0.06034 0.00097 4972 13916Broken Rail 0.00858 0.43531 0.00700 35869 100392Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05563 0.00556 0 22253Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57238 1.84557 0.02739 178897 445626Total, All Scenarios 0.59651 2.90151 0.05940 241487 709844

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00103 0.00010 274 686

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00077 0.00008 97 406

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00052 0.00005 199 406

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 550

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00212 0.00021 3723 4572Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00637 0.00064 0 2549

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04669 0.01659 0.00085 3319 7537Total, All Scenarios 0.05930 0.02766 0.00196 8060 16706

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65581 2.92917 0.06136 249547 726550

Table R1a: Full Year, PTC Normal, Joliet
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financia

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions

Intrusion CollisionsDiamond CollisionsOverspeedBroken RailWork Zone ViolationGrade Crossing CollisionsTotal, All Scenarios

Freight Train-Train Collisions

Intrusion CollisionsDiamond CollisionsOverspeedBroken RailWork Zone ViolationGrade Crossing CollisionsTotal, All Scenarios

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financia

($) Totals

($)

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R3a: All Year, PTC Normal, Joliet

Table R2a: Summer, PTC Normal, Joliet
Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.20937 0.00800 9112 54058

Intrusion Collisions 0.01054 0.29310 0.01041 12560 73109

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00219 0.00007 77 491Overspeed 0.00118 0.06034 0.00097 4972 13916

Broken Rail 0.00858 0.43531 0.00700 35869 100392Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05563 0.00556 0 22253

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57238 1.84557 0.02739 178897 445626Total, All Scenarios 0.59651 2.90151 0.05940 241487 709844

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00103 0.00010 274 686

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00077 0.00008 97 406

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00052 0.00005 199 406Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 550

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00212 0.00021 3723 4572Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00637 0.00064 0 2549

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04669 0.01659 0.00085 3319 7537Total, All Scenarios 0.05930 0.02766 0.00196 8060 16706

0.65581 2.92917 0.06136 249547 726550

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financia

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16 98

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R4a: Full Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet
Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 51Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00473 0.00010 386 1162

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28

0.00101 0.00478 0.00010 399 1190

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financia

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions

Intrusion CollisionsDiamond CollisionsOverspeedBroken RailWork Zone ViolationGrade Crossing Collisions

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R5a: Summer, PTC Timeout, Joliet
Total, All Scenarios

Freight Train-Train Collisions

Intrusion CollisionsDiamond CollisionsOverspeedBroken RailWork Zone ViolationGrade Crossing CollisionsTotal, All Scenarios

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financia

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16 98

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 51Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00473 0.00010 386 1162

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R6a: All Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet
Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28

bbb

0.00101 0.00478 0.00010 399 1190

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financia

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.20975 0.00802 9128 54156

Intrusion Collisions 0.01056 0.29360 0.01043 12582 73233Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00220 0.00007 77 492Overspeed 0.00118 0.06056 0.00097 4990 13967Broken Rail 0.00859 0.43598 0.00701 35924 100548Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05576 0.00558 0 22302Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57325 1.84840 0.02743 179171 446309Total, All Scenarios 0.59743 2.90624 0.05950 241873 711006

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00103 0.00010 275 688

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00077 0.00008 97 407

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00052 0.00005 200 407

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 449 551

Broken Rail 0.00689 0.00213 0.00021 3729 4579Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2554

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04676 0.01662 0.00085 3324 7549

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R7a: totals: All Year, All Operating States, Joliet
Total, All Scenarios 0.05939 0.02771 0.00196 8073 16734

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65682 2.93394 0.06147 249946 727740
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00471 0.24335 0.00923 10473 62506

Intrusion Collisions 0.01122 0.29495 0.01047 12570 73487Diamond Collisions 0.00023 0.00199 0.00006 70 446Overspeed 0.00125 0.06146 0.00099 4976 14078Broken Rail 0.00913 0.44338 0.00711 35898 101563Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05716 0.00572 0 22865Grade Crossing Collisions 0.53522 1.49510 0.02223 144911 361115Total, All Scenarios 0.56176 2.59739 0.05581 208899 636061

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00342 0.00328 0.00033 881 2192

Intrusion Collisions 0.00449 0.00135 0.00014 170 711

Diamond Collisions 0.00125 0.00044 0.00004 170 346

Overspeed 0.00216 0.00063 0.00006 1129 1381Broken Rail 0.01180 0.00341 0.00034 6100 7466Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01286 0.00129 0 5142

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07402 0.02323 0.00119 4622 10513Total, All Scenarios 0.09716 0.04520 0.00339 13071 27752

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65892 2.64259 0.05919 221970 663812

Results Summary: Basic PTC Case, Timeout 120 secon

PTC No

Table R1b: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00134 0.07268 0.00276 3134 18695

Intrusion Collisions 0.00373 0.09796 0.00348 4175 24406Diamond Collisions 0.00007 0.00059 0.00002 21 133Overspeed 0.00042 0.02041 0.00033 1653 4675Broken Rail 0.00303 0.14725 0.00236 11922 33731Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01898 0.00190 0 7594Grade Crossing Collisions 0.17776 0.49655 0.00738 48127 119932Total, All Scenarios 0.18633 0.85443 0.01823 69032 209167

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00035 0.00035 0.00003 93 232

Intrusion Collisions 0.00088 0.00026 0.00003 33 137

Diamond Collisions 0.00037 0.00013 0.00001 51 103

Overspeed 0.00029 0.00008 0.00001 151 185

Broken Rail 0.00243 0.00070 0.00007 1256 1537Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00219 0.00020 0 824

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01524 0.00478 0.00024 952 2165Total, All Scenarios 0.01957 0.00850 0.00060 2535 5184

0.20590 0.86293 0.01883 71568 214351

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R3b: All Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington

Table R2b: Summer, PTC Normal, Bloomington
Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00605 0.31602 0.01200 13608 81201

Intrusion Collisions 0.01494 0.39291 0.01395 16745 97893

Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00258 0.00008 90 579Overspeed 0.00167 0.08187 0.00131 6629 18753Broken Rail 0.01216 0.59064 0.00947 47821 135294Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07615 0.00761 0 30459Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71298 1.99165 0.02961 193039 481047Total, All Scenarios 0.74809 3.45182 0.07404 277931 845227

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00378 0.00362 0.00036 974 2424

Intrusion Collisions 0.00537 0.00161 0.00016 202 848

Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00057 0.00006 221 449Overspeed 0.00245 0.00072 0.00007 1280 1566Broken Rail 0.01423 0.00412 0.00041 7356 9003

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01505 0.00149 0 5967

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08927 0.02802 0.00143 5574 12678Total, All Scenarios 0.11673 0.05370 0.00399 15607 32936

0.86483 3.50552 0.07802 293538 878163

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00045 0.00002 19 116

Total Passenger + Freight

PTC Tim

Table R4b: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington
Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 125

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2Overspeed 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18 52Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00069 0.00001 56 157Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 0 50Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00082 0.00229 0.00003 222 553Total, All Scenarios 0.00087 0.00429 0.00010 337 1055

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5

Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 2

Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 9 11

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0 9

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00011 0.00003 0.00000 7 16Total, All Scenarios 0.00015 0.00007 0.00001 21 45

0 0 0 358 1100

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 5.7 34.0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00017 0.00001 7.1 41.4Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.4Overspeed 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 6.1 17.2Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18.5 52.2Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 0.0 16.8Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00027 0.00076 0.00001 73.7 183.8

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R5b: Summer, PTC Timeout, Bloomington
Total, All Scenarios 0.00029 0.00141 0.00003 111.1 345.8

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.5

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.3

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.2Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.3 0.4

Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.9 2.4Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 1.0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 2.3 5.2Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0.00000 4.9 10.0

0.00033 0.00142 0.00003 116.1 355.7

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00058 0.00002 25 150

Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00067 0.00002 28 166Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2Overspeed 0.00001 0.00030 0.00000 24 69Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00091 0.00001 74 209Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00017 0.00002 0 67Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00109 0.00305 0.00005 296 737Total, All Scenarios 0.00115 0.00569 0.00013 448 1400

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5

Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 3

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R6b: All Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington
Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 11 14

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 0 10Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00015 0.00005 0.00000 9 21Total, All Scenarios 0.00019 0.00009 0.00001 26 55

0.00135 0.00579 0.00013 474 1456

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00606 0.31661 0.01202 13633 81351

Intrusion Collisions 0.01497 0.39358 0.01398 16773 98059Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00259 0.00008 91 581Overspeed 0.00167 0.08217 0.00132 6653 18822Broken Rail 0.01218 0.59155 0.00948 47895 135503Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07632 0.00763 0 30526Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71407 1.99470 0.02966 193335 481784Total, All Scenarios 0.74925 3.45751 0.07417 278379 846628

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00379 0.00363 0.00036 976 2429

Intrusion Collisions 0.00538 0.00161 0.00016 203 850

Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00057 0.00006 222 450

Overspeed 0.00246 0.00072 0.00007 1282 1569Broken Rail 0.01426 0.00412 0.00041 7367 9017Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01507 0.00149 0 5976

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08942 0.02806 0.00144 5583 12699

Total Passenger + Freight

PTC Totals, Al

Table R7b: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Bloomington
Total, All Scenarios 0.11692 0.05379 0.00399 15632 32991

Total Passenger + Freight 0.86617 3.51131 0.07816 294011 879619
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00708 0.35839 0.01356 15321 91837

Intrusion Collisions 0.01724 0.42338 0.01502 18056 105443Diamond Collisions 0.00049 0.00436 0.00013 153 979Overspeed 0.00193 0.09127 0.00146 7148 20669Broken Rail 0.01403 0.65848 0.01056 51572 149112Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08482 0.00848 0 33929Grade Crossing Collisions 0.48582 1.41481 0.02100 137215 341700Total, All Scenarios 0.52660 3.03552 0.07022 229465 743667

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00642 0.00661 0.00066 1767 4412

Intrusion Collisions 0.01001 0.00322 0.00032 405 1695

Diamond Collisions 0.00280 0.00098 0.00010 381 774

Overspeed 0.00577 0.00190 0.00019 3207 3967Broken Rail 0.02535 0.00827 0.00083 13948 17257Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03192 0.00319 0 12769Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09676 0.03675 0.00188 7335 16651Total, All Scenarios 0.14711 0.08966 0.00717 27043 57526

Total Passenger + Freight 0.67371 3.12518 0.07739 256509 801193

ency 10 seconds with Reduced Severity of Consequences

rating State

Table R1c: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Springfield
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00183 0.10014 0.00380 4294 25719

Intrusion Collisions 0.00573 0.14061 0.00499 5997 35019Diamond Collisions 0.00014 0.00122 0.00004 43 274Overspeed 0.00064 0.03031 0.00049 2374 6864Broken Rail 0.00466 0.21869 0.00351 17128 49522Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02817 0.00282 0 11269Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16135 0.46988 0.00697 45571 113484Total, All Scenarios 0.17435 0.98903 0.02261 75407 242152

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00034 0.00035 0.00004 94 234

Intrusion Collisions 0.00173 0.00055 0.00006 69 290

Diamond Collisions 0.00079 0.00028 0.00003 107 217

Overspeed 0.00081 0.00027 0.00003 449 555

Broken Rail 0.00457 0.00149 0.00015 2513 3109Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00505 0.00050 0 2019

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01743 0.00662 0.00034 1322 3000Total, All Scenarios 0.02566 0.01461 0.00114 4554 9426

0.20001 1.00364 0.02375 79961 251577

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R3c: All Year, PTC Normal, Springfield

Table R2c: Summer, PTC Normal, Springfield
Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00891 0.45853 0.01736 19616 117555

Intrusion Collisions 0.02297 0.56399 0.02000 24053 140462

Diamond Collisions 0.00063 0.00559 0.00017 196 1253

Overspeed 0.00257 0.12159 0.00195 9523 27533Broken Rail 0.01869 0.87718 0.01407 68700 198634

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11299 0.01130 0 45198

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64717 1.88469 0.02798 182786 455184Total, All Scenarios 0.70094 4.02455 0.09283 304873 985819

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00675 0.00696 0.00070 1861 4647

Intrusion Collisions 0.01174 0.00378 0.00038 475 1986

Diamond Collisions 0.00359 0.00126 0.00013 488 991Overspeed 0.00658 0.00217 0.00022 3656 4523

Broken Rail 0.02992 0.00976 0.00098 16461 20366

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03697 0.00370 0 14789

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11419 0.04337 0.00222 8657 19651Total, All Scenarios 0.17277 0.10427 0.00831 31597 66951

0.87371 4.12882 0.10114 336470 105277

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00054 0.00002 23 139

Total Passenger + Freight

erating State

Table R4c: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Springfield
Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00072 0.00003 31 179

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 3Overspeed 0.00001 0.00034 0.00001 26 76Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00102 0.00002 80 231Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00019 0.00002 0 75Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00074 0.00217 0.00003 210 524Total, All Scenarios 0 0 0 370 1226

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 4 9

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 1 3

Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1 2

Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 5 6

Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 21 26

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00005 0.00001 0 20Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00014 0.00005 0.00000 11 25Total, All Scenarios 0 0 0 42 91

0 0 0 413 1316

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00018 0.00001 7.8 46.5

Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0.00001 10.2 59.3Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.9Overspeed 0.00000 0.00011 0.00000 8.7 25.2Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00034 0.00001 26.5 76.6Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0.00000 0.0 18.9Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00025 0.00072 0.00001 69.8 173.9

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R5c: Summer, PTC Timeout, Springfield
Total, All Scenarios 0.00027 0.00166 0.00004 123.1 401.4

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.5

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.5

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.5Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.8 1.0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 3.8 4.7Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0.0 3.5Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0.00000 2.0 4.5Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0.00000 7.1 15.1

0.00031 0.00168 0.00004 130.3 416.6

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00072 0.00003 31 185

Intrusion Collisions 0.00004 0.00096 0.00003 41 238Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 1 4Overspeed 0.00001 0.00045 0.00001 35 101Broken Rail 0.00003 0.00136 0.00002 106 307Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00025 0.00002 0 94Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00099 0.00289 0.00004 280 697Total, All Scenarios 0.00108 0.00664 0.00016 494 1627

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 4 9

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 1 3

Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1 2

Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R6c: All Year, PTC Timeout, Springfield
Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 25 31

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0.00001 0 24Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00017 0.00006 0.00000 13 29Total, All Scenarios 0.00026 0.00016 0.00001 49 106

0.00134 0.00680 0.00017 543 1733

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00893 0.45926 0.01739 19647 117740

Intrusion Collisions 0.02301 0.56494 0.02004 24094 140700Diamond Collisions 0.00064 0.00560 0.00017 196 1257Overspeed 0.00257 0.12203 0.00196 9558 27634Broken Rail 0.01872 0.87853 0.01409 68806 198942Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11324 0.01132 0 45292Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64816 1.88757 0.02802 183066 455881Total, All Scenarios 0.70203 4.03119 0.09299 305366 987446

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00677 0.00698 0.00070 1865 4656

Intrusion Collisions 0.01176 0.00378 0.00038 475 1989

Diamond Collisions 0.00360 0.00126 0.00013 489 993

Overspeed 0.00659 0.00217 0.00022 3662 4530Broken Rail 0.02997 0.00978 0.00098 16486 20397Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03703 0.00370 0 14812Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11436 0.04343 0.00222 8669 19680

Total Passenger + Freight

ng States, All Year

Table R7c: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Springfield
Total, All Scenarios 0.17303 0.10443 0.00832 31646 67057

Total Passenger + Freight 0.87506 4.13562 0.10131 337012 105450
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01539 0.81111 0.03079 34907 208401

Intrusion Collisions 0.03900 1.01143 0.03590 43187 252038Diamond Collisions 0.00097 0.00854 0.00025 299 1916Overspeed 0.00436 0.21307 0.00342 17096 48662Broken Rail 0.03174 1.53717 0.02467 123339 351067Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.19762 0.01976 0 79048Grade Crossing Collisions 1.59342 4.75548 0.07062 461023 114844Total, All Scenarios 1.68487 8.53442 0.18543 679851 208957

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.01081 0.01092 0.00109 2923 7290

Intrusion Collisions 0.01698 0.00535 0.00054 672 2813

Diamond Collisions 0.00552 0.00194 0.00019 750 1526

Overspeed 0.00875 0.00279 0.00028 4783 5899Broken Rail 0.04403 0.01381 0.00138 23771 29295Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05115 0.00512 0 20460Grade Crossing Collisions 0.21747 0.07657 0.00392 15276 34701Total, All Scenarios 0.30356 0.16253 0.01252 48175 101984

Total Passenger + Freight 1.98843 8.69694 0.19795 728025 219155

Table R1d: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Whole Corridor
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00317 0.17282 0.00657 7429 44414

Intrusion Collisions 0.00945 0.23857 0.00847 10172 59425Diamond Collisions 0.00021 0.00182 0.00005 64 407Overspeed 0.00106 0.05072 0.00081 4027 11540Broken Rail 0.00769 0.36595 0.00587 29050 83253Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04716 0.00472 0 18862Grade Crossing Collisions 0.33910 0.96643 0.01436 93699 233417Total, All Scenarios 0.36068 1.84346 0.04084 144440 451319

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00069 0.00070 0.00007 187 466

Intrusion Collisions 0.00261 0.00081 0.00008 102 428

Diamond Collisions 0.00116 0.00041 0.00004 158 320

Overspeed 0.00110 0.00035 0.00004 600 740

Broken Rail 0.00700 0.00219 0.00022 3769 4647Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00724 0.00071 0 2844

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.03268 0.01141 0.00058 2273 5165Total, All Scenarios 0.04523 0.02311 0.00174 7089 14610

0.40591 1.86657 0.04258 151529 465928

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R3d: All Year, PTC Normal, Whole Corridor

Table R2d: Summer, PTC Normal, Whole Corridor
Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01856 0.98392 0.03736 42335 252814

Intrusion Collisions 0.04845 1.25000 0.04437 53358 311464

Diamond Collisions 0.00117 0.01036 0.00031 363 2323

Overspeed 0.00541 0.26379 0.00423 21123 60202Broken Rail 0.03943 1.90312 0.03054 152389 434320

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.24478 0.02448 0 97910

Grade Crossing Collisions 1.93252 5.72191 0.08498 554721 138185Total, All Scenarios 2.04555 10.37788 0.22627 824290 254089

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.01151 0.01162 0.00116 3109 7757

Intrusion Collisions 0.01959 0.00616 0.00062 774 3240

Diamond Collisions 0.00668 0.00234 0.00023 908 1846

Overspeed 0.00985 0.00314 0.00031 5383 6639

Broken Rail 0.05103 0.01600 0.00160 27541 33942Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05839 0.00582 0 23304

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.25014 0.08798 0.00451 17549 39866Total, All Scenarios 0.34880 0.18563 0.01426 55264 116593

2.39435 10.56351 0.24053 879554 265748

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00002 0.00137 0.00005 59 352

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R4d: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Whole Corridor
Intrusion Collisions 0.00007 0.00171 0.00006 73 427

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 1 7Overspeed 0.00002 0.00078 0.00001 63 179Broken Rail 0.00005 0.00238 0.00004 191 543Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00044 0.00004 0 174Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00244 0.00729 0.00011 706 1760Total, All Scenarios 0.00260 0.01400 0.00032 1093 3442

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00002 0.00002 0.00000 6 15

Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0.00000 1 5

Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 2 3

Overspeed 0.00002 0.00000 0.00000 8 10Broken Rail 0.00007 0.00002 0.00000 36 44Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00008 0.00001 0 34Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00033 0.00011 0.00001 23 52Total, All Scenarios 0.00046 0.00026 0.00002 76 163

0.00306 0.01426 0.00034 1169 3606

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00031 0.00001 13 81

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00040 0.00001 17 101Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 1Overspeed 0.00000 0.00019 0.00000 15 42Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00057 0.00001 45 129Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00010 0.00001 0 36Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00052 0.00148 0.00002 144 358

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R2d: Summer, PTC Timeout, Whole Corridor
Total, All Scenarios 0.00056 0.00306 0.00007 234 747

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 4

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00006 0.00002 0.00000 4 10Total, All Scenarios 0.00008 0.00004 0.00000 12 25

0.00064 0.00310 0.00007 246 772

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00003 0.00169 0.00006 72 433

Intrusion Collisions 0.00008 0.00212 0.00008 90 528Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 1 8Overspeed 0.00002 0.00097 0.00002 78 221Broken Rail 0.00006 0.00295 0.00005 236 672Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00054 0.00005 0 210Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00296 0.00877 0.00013 850 2117Total, All Scenarios 0.00315 0.01706 0.00039 1328 4189

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00002 0.00002 0.00000 6 16

Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0.00000 1 5

Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 4

Overspeed 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 9 12

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R6d: All Year, PTC timeout, Whole Corridor
Broken Rail 0.00008 0.00002 0.00000 42 51

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00010 0.00001 0 38Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00039 0.00014 0.00001 27 62Total, All Scenarios 0.00055 0.00030 0.00002 88 188

0.00370 0.01737 0.00041 1416 4378

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financi

($) Totals

($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01859 0.98561 0.03743 42408 253247

Intrusion Collisions 0.04854 1.25212 0.04444 53449 311991Diamond Collisions 0.00118 0.01039 0.00031 364 2331Overspeed 0.00543 0.26476 0.00425 21201 60423Broken Rail 0.03949 1.90606 0.03059 152625 434992Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.24532 0.02453 0 98120Grade Crossing Collisions 1.93548 5.73068 0.08511 555571 138397Total, All Scenarios 2.04870 10.39494 0.22666 825618 254508

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.01153 0.01164 0.00116 3116 7773

Intrusion Collisions 0.01962 0.00617 0.00062 775 3245

Diamond Collisions 0.00669 0.00235 0.00023 910 1850

Overspeed 0.00987 0.00315 0.00031 5392 6650Broken Rail 0.05111 0.01603 0.00160 27582 33993Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05849 0.00583 0 23342Grade Crossing Collisions 0.25053 0.08811 0.00451 17576 39928

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R7d: Grand Total: All Year, All Operating States, Whole Corridor
Total, All Scenarios 0.34934 0.18593 0.01428 55351 116782

Total Passenger + Freight 2.39805 10.58087 0.24094 880969 266186
System Number Worksheet Title Analysis Case

IDOT PTC System 1 PTC Basic TO120 Basic PTC Case: Timeout 120 secs, Latency 10 sec

2 PTC TO240 PTC Case, Timeout 240 secs, Latency 10 secs3 PTC TO360 PTC Case, Timeout 360 secs, Latency 10 secs4 PTC TO60 PTC Case, Timeout 60 secs, Latency 10 secs.5 PTC TO20 PTC Case Timeout 20 secs, Latency 10 secs6 PTC Lat 20 PTC Case Timeout 120 secs, Latency 20 secs7 PTC Lat 5 PTC Case Timeout 120 secs, Latency 5 secs8 PTC Basic 88% PTC Case with Preventability Reduced from 90% to 9 PTC Basic 94% PTC Case with Preventability Increased from 90 to 9

10 PTC Basic Red. Sev'ty Basic PTC Case with Reduced Severity of Conseque

Cab Signals + ATS 11 ATS Basic, 70% Basic Case: Cab Signal and ATS, 70% Preventability

12 ATS 80% Cab Signal and ATS, 80% Preventability13 ATS 60% Cab Signal and ATS, 60% Preventability14 ATS Basic 70% Red. Sev'ty Basic ATS case with reduced severity of consequenc

Northeast Corridor ATC 15 NEC-ATC Basic 85% Basic NEC-ATC Case with 85% Preventability

16 NEC-ATC 80% NEC-ATC with 80% Preventability17 NEC-ATC 90% NEC-ATC with 90% Preventability18 NEC Basic 85% Red. Sev'ty Basic NEC-ATC Case with Reduced Severity of Con

CTC Reference Case 19 CTC Ref CTC Reference Case

Contents of Results Summaries Worksheets
Worksheet 1

Basic PTC Case: Timeout 120 seconds

Latency 10 seconds

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25533 0.00976 11112 65925 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00471 0.29676 0.01126 12772 76227 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00708 0.43706 0.01653 18685 111996 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01539 0.98915 0.03755 42569 254147

Intrusion Collisions 0.01054 0.30131 0.01070 12912 75155 Intrusion Collisions 0.01122 0.30321 0.01077 12922 75544 Intrusion Collisions 0.01724 0.43523 0.01544 18561 108393 Intrusion Collisions 0.03900 1.03975 0.03691 44395 259092

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 93 598 Diamond Collisions 0.00023 0.00243 0.00007 85 544 Diamond Collisions 0.00049 0.00532 0.00016 186 1194 Diamond Collisions 0.00097 0.01042 0.00031 365 2336

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06034 0.00097 4972 13916 Overspeed 0.00125 0.06146 0.00099 4976 14078 Overspeed 0.00193 0.09127 0.00146 7148 20669 Overspeed 0.00436 0.21307 0.00342 17096 48662

Broken Rail 0.00858 0.43970 0.00707 36231 101406 Broken Rail 0.00913 0.44786 0.00718 36261 102589 Broken Rail 0.01403 0.66513 0.01067 52093 150618 Broken Rail 0.03174 1.55270 0.02492 124585 354613

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05563 0.00556 0 22253 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05716 0.00572 0 22865 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08482 0.00848 0 33929 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.19762 0.01976 0 79048

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57238 1.84557 0.02739 178897 445626 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.53522 1.49510 0.02223 144911 361115 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.48582 1.41481 0.02100 137215 341700 Grade Crossing Collisions 1.59342 4.75548 0.07062 461023 1148441

Total, All Scenarios 0.59651 2.96055 0.06154 244217 724878 Total, All Scenarios 0.56176 2.66399 0.05821 211927 652962 Total, All Scenarios 0.52660 3.13365 0.07375 233888 768499 Total, All Scenarios 1.68487 8.75819 0.19350 690033 2146339

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 837 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00342 0.00400 0.00040 1074 2673 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00642 0.00806 0.00081 2155 5381 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.01081 0.01332 0.00133 3564 8890

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00449 0.00140 0.00014 176 738 Intrusion Collisions 0.01001 0.00332 0.00033 417 1746 Intrusion Collisions 0.01698 0.00553 0.00055 695 2911

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495 Diamond Collisions 0.00125 0.00054 0.00005 208 422 Diamond Collisions 0.00280 0.00120 0.00012 464 944 Diamond Collisions 0.00552 0.00236 0.00024 915 1861

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 550 Overspeed 0.00216 0.00063 0.00006 1129 1381 Overspeed 0.00577 0.00190 0.00019 3207 3967 Overspeed 0.00875 0.00279 0.00028 4783 5899

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00214 0.00021 3761 4619 Broken Rail 0.01180 0.00345 0.00034 6162 7541 Broken Rail 0.02535 0.00836 0.00084 14089 17431 Broken Rail 0.04403 0.01395 0.00139 24012 29591

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00637 0.00064 0 2549 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01286 0.00129 0 5142 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03192 0.00319 0 12769 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05115 0.00512 0 20460

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04669 0.01659 0.00085 3319 7537 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07402 0.02323 0.00119 4622 10513 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09676 0.03675 0.00188 7335 16651 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.21747 0.07657 0.00392 15276 34701

Total, All Scenarios 0.05930 0.02806 0.00200 8207 17013 Total, All Scenarios 0.09716 0.04610 0.00348 13370 28411 Total, All Scenarios 0.14711 0.09151 0.00736 27668 58889 Total, All Scenarios 0.30356 0.16567 0.01283 49244 104313

0.65581 2.98861 0.06354 252424 741891 0.65892 2.71009 0.06169 225297 681373 0.67371 3.22516 0.08111 261556 827388 1.98843 8.92386 0.20633 739277 2250652

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00134 0.08863 0.00337 3822 22799 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00183 0.12212 0.00464 5237 31364 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00317 0.21075 0.00801 9060 54163

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00373 0.10070 0.00358 4292 25089 Intrusion Collisions 0.00573 0.14455 0.00513 6165 35999 Intrusion Collisions 0.00945 0.24525 0.00870 10456 61089

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00007 0.00072 0.00002 25 162 Diamond Collisions 0.00014 0.00149 0.00004 52 335 Diamond Collisions 0.00021 0.00221 0.00007 78 497

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00042 0.02041 0.00033 1653 4675 Overspeed 0.00064 0.03031 0.00049 2374 6864 Overspeed 0.00106 0.05072 0.00081 4027 11540

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00303 0.14874 0.00238 12043 34072 Broken Rail 0.00466 0.22090 0.00354 17301 50023 Broken Rail 0.00769 0.36964 0.00593 29344 84094

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01898 0.00190 0 7594 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02817 0.00282 0 11269 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04716 0.00472 0 18862

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.17776 0.49655 0.00738 48127 119932 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16135 0.46988 0.00697 45571 113484 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.33910 0.96643 0.01436 93699 233417

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.18633 0.87474 0.01896 69962 214324 Total, All Scenarios 0.17435 1.01743 0.02363 76700 249338 Total, All Scenarios 0.36068 1.89217 0.04259 146662 463661

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00035 0.00042 0.00004 113 283 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00034 0.00043 0.00004 115 286 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00069 0.00085 0.00009 228 569

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00088 0.00027 0.00003 34 144 Intrusion Collisions 0.00173 0.00057 0.00006 72 302 Intrusion Collisions 0.00261 0.00085 0.00008 106 446

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00037 0.00016 0.00002 62 126 Diamond Collisions 0.00079 0.00034 0.00003 130 265 Diamond Collisions 0.00116 0.00050 0.00005 192 390

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00029 0.00008 0.00001 151 185 Overspeed 0.00081 0.00027 0.00003 449 555 Overspeed 0.00110 0.00035 0.00004 600 740

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00243 0.00071 0.00007 1269 1553 Broken Rail 0.00457 0.00151 0.00015 2538 3141 Broken Rail 0.00700 0.00222 0.00022 3807 4694

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00219 0.00020 0 824 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00505 0.00050 0 2019 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00724 0.00071 0 2844

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01524 0.00478 0.00024 952 2165 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01743 0.00662 0.00034 1322 3000 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.03268 0.01141 0.00058 2273 5165

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.01957 0.00863 0.00061 2581 5280 Total, All Scenarios 0.02566 0.01478 0.00115 4626 9568 Total, All Scenarios 0.04523 0.02341 0.00177 7207 14848

0.20590 0.88337 0.01957 72544 219604 0.20001 1.03221 0.02479 81326 258905 0.40591 1.91558 0.04436 153869 478509

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25533 0.00976 11112 65925 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00605 0.38539 0.01463 16595 99026 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00891 0.55919 0.02117 23922 143360 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01856 1.19991 0.04556 51628 308310

Intrusion Collisions 0.01054 0.30131 0.01070 12912 75155 Intrusion Collisions 0.01494 0.40391 0.01434 17213 100633 Intrusion Collisions 0.02297 0.57978 0.02056 24726 144393 Intrusion Collisions 0.04845 1.28500 0.04561 54851 320180

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 93 598 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00315 0.00009 110 707 Diamond Collisions 0.00063 0.00681 0.00020 239 1528 Diamond Collisions 0.00117 0.01263 0.00038 442 2833

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06034 0.00097 4972 13916 Overspeed 0.00167 0.08187 0.00131 6629 18753 Overspeed 0.00257 0.12159 0.00195 9523 27533 Overspeed 0.00541 0.26379 0.00423 21123 60202

Broken Rail 0.00858 0.43970 0.00707 36231 101406 Broken Rail 0.01216 0.59660 0.00957 48304 136661 Broken Rail 0.01869 0.88604 0.01421 69394 200641 Broken Rail 0.03943 1.92234 0.03085 153929 438707

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05563 0.00556 0 22253 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07615 0.00761 0 30459 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11299 0.01130 0 45198 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.24478 0.02448 0 97910

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57238 1.84557 0.02739 178897 445626 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71298 1.99165 0.02961 193039 481047 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64717 1.88469 0.02798 182786 455184 Grade Crossing Collisions 1.93252 5.72191 0.08498 554721 1381857

Total, All Scenarios 0.59651 2.96055 0.06154 244217 724878 Total, All Scenarios 0.74809 3.53873 0.07717 281889 867286 Total, All Scenarios 0.70094 4.15108 0.09738 310588 1017836 Total, All Scenarios 2.04555 10.65036 0.23609 836695 2610000

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 837 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00378 0.00442 0.00044 1187 2956 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00675 0.00849 0.00085 2270 5667 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.01151 0.01417 0.00142 3792 9459

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00537 0.00168 0.00017 210 882 Intrusion Collisions 0.01174 0.00389 0.00039 490 2048 Intrusion Collisions 0.01959 0.00638 0.00064 802 3357

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495 Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00070 0.00007 270 548 Diamond Collisions 0.00359 0.00153 0.00015 595 1208 Diamond Collisions 0.00668 0.00286 0.00029 1107 2251

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 550 Overspeed 0.00245 0.00072 0.00007 1280 1566 Overspeed 0.00658 0.00217 0.00022 3656 4523 Overspeed 0.00985 0.00314 0.00031 5383 6639

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00214 0.00021 3761 4619 Broken Rail 0.01423 0.00416 0.00042 7430 9094 Broken Rail 0.02992 0.00986 0.00099 16628 20572 Broken Rail 0.05103 0.01616 0.00162 27819 34285

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00637 0.00064 0 2549 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01505 0.00149 0 5967 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03697 0.00370 0 14789 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05839 0.00582 0 23304

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04669 0.01659 0.00085 3319 7537 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08927 0.02802 0.00143 5574 12678 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11419 0.04337 0.00222 8657 19651 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.25014 0.08798 0.00451 17549 39866

Total, All Scenarios 0.05930 0.02806 0.00200 8207 17013 Total, All Scenarios 0.11673 0.05473 0.00409 15951 33691 Total, All Scenarios 0.17277 0.10629 0.00851 32294 68457 Total, All Scenarios 0.34880 0.18908 0.01460 56451 119161

0.65581 2.98861 0.06354 252424 741891 0.86483 3.59345 0.08126 297841 900977 0.87371 4.25737 0.10589 342882 1086293 2.39435 10.83944 0.25069 893146 2729161

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16 98 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00045 0.00002 19 116 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00054 0.00002 23 139 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00002 0.00137 0.00005 59 352

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 125 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00072 0.00003 31 179 Intrusion Collisions 0.00007 0.00171 0.00006 73 427

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 3 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 1 7

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 51 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18 52 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00034 0.00001 26 76 Overspeed 0.00002 0.00078 0.00001 63 179

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00069 0.00001 56 157 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00102 0.00002 80 231 Broken Rail 0.00005 0.00238 0.00004 191 543

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 0 50 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00019 0.00002 0 75 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00044 0.00004 0 174

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00082 0.00229 0.00003 222 553 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00074 0.00217 0.00003 210 524 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00244 0.00729 0.00011 706 1760

Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00473 0.00010 386 1162 Total, All Scenarios 0.00087 0.00429 0.00010 337 1055 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 0 370 1226 Total, All Scenarios 0.00260 0.01400 0.00032 1093 3442

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 4 9 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00002 0.00002 0.00000 6 15

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 1 3 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0.00000 1 5

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 2 3

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 2 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 5 6 Overspeed 0.00002 0.00000 0.00000 8 10

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 9 11 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 21 26 Broken Rail 0.00007 0.00002 0.00000 36 44

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0 9 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00005 0.00001 0 20 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00008 0.00001 0 34

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00011 0.00003 0.00000 7 16 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00014 0.00005 0.00000 11 25 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00033 0.00011 0.00001 23 52

Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28 Total, All Scenarios 0.00015 0.00007 0.00001 21 45 Total, All Scenarios 0.00022 0.00014 0.00001 42 91 Total, All Scenarios 0.00046 0.00026 0.00002 76 163

0.00101 0.00478 0.00010 399 1190 0.00101 0.00436 0.00010 358 1100 0.00104 0.00512 0.00013 413 1316 0.00306 0.01426 0.00034 1169 3606

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 5.7 34.0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00018 0.00001 7.8 46.5 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00031 0.00001 13 81

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00017 0.00001 7.1 41.4 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0.00001 10.2 59.3 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00040 0.00001 17 101

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.4 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.9 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 1

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 6.1 17.2 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00011 0.00000 8.7 25.2 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00019 0.00000 15 42

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18.5 52.2 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00034 0.00001 26.5 76.6 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00057 0.00001 45 129

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 0.0 16.8 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0.00000 0.0 18.9 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00010 0.00001 0 36

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00027 0.00076 0.00001 73.7 183.8 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00025 0.00072 0.00001 69.8 173.9 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00052 0.00148 0.00002 144 358

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00029 0.00141 0.00003 111.1 345.8 Total, All Scenarios 0.00027 0.00166 0.00004 123.1 401.4 Total, All Scenarios 0.00056 0.00306 0.00007 234 747

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.3 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.5 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.5 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.3 0.4 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.8 1.0 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.9 2.4 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 3.8 4.7 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 1.0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0.0 3.5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 4

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 2.3 5.2 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0.00000 2.0 4.5 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00006 0.00002 0.00000 4 10

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0.00000 4.9 10.0 Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0.00000 7.1 15.1 Total, All Scenarios 0.00008 0.00004 0.00000 12 25

0.00033 0.00142 0.00003 116.1 355.7 0.00031 0.00168 0.00004 130.3 416.6 0.00064 0.00310 0.00007 246 772

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16 98 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00058 0.00002 25 150 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00072 0.00003 31 185 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00003 0.00169 0.00006 72 433

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00067 0.00002 28 166 Intrusion Collisions 0.00004 0.00096 0.00003 41 238 Intrusion Collisions 0.00008 0.00212 0.00008 90 528

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 1 4 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 1 8

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 51 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00030 0.00000 24 69 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00045 0.00001 35 101 Overspeed 0.00002 0.00097 0.00002 78 221

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00091 0.00001 74 209 Broken Rail 0.00003 0.00136 0.00002 106 307 Broken Rail 0.00006 0.00295 0.00005 236 672

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00017 0.00002 0 67 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00025 0.00002 0 94 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00054 0.00005 0 210

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00109 0.00305 0.00005 296 737 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00099 0.00289 0.00004 280 697 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00296 0.00877 0.00013 850 2117

Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00473 0.00010 386 1162 Total, All Scenarios 0.00115 0.00569 0.00013 448 1400 Total, All Scenarios 0.00108 0.00664 0.00016 494 1627 Total, All Scenarios 0.00315 0.01706 0.00039 1328 4189

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 4 9 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00002 0.00002 0.00000 6 16

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 1 3 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0.00000 1 5

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 4

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 3 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Overspeed 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 9 12

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 11 14 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 25 31 Broken Rail 0.00008 0.00002 0.00000 42 51

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 0 10 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0.00001 0 24 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00010 0.00001 0 38

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00015 0.00005 0.00000 9 21 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00017 0.00006 0.00000 13 29 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00039 0.00014 0.00001 27 62

Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28 Total, All Scenarios 0.00019 0.00009 0.00001 26 55 Total, All Scenarios 0.00026 0.00016 0.00001 49 106 Total, All Scenarios 0.00055 0.00030 0.00002 88 188

bbb

0.00101 0.00478 0.00010 399 1190 0.00135 0.00579 0.00013 474 1456 0.00134 0.00680 0.00017 543 1733 0.00370 0.01737 0.00041 1416 4378

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25571 0.00977 11129 66022 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00606 0.38598 0.01465 16620 99175 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00893 0.55991 0.02120 23952 143545 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01859 1.20159 0.04563 51701 308743

Intrusion Collisions 0.01056 0.30181 0.01072 12933 75279 Intrusion Collisions 0.01497 0.40458 0.01437 17242 100799 Intrusion Collisions 0.02301 0.58073 0.02060 24767 144631 Intrusion Collisions 0.04854 1.28712 0.04569 54941 320708

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00268 0.00008 94 600 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00316 0.00009 111 709 Diamond Collisions 0.00064 0.00683 0.00020 239 1532 Diamond Collisions 0.00118 0.01267 0.00038 444 2841

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06056 0.00097 4990 13967 Overspeed 0.00167 0.08217 0.00132 6653 18822 Overspeed 0.00257 0.12203 0.00196 9558 27634 Overspeed 0.00543 0.26476 0.00425 21201 60423

Broken Rail 0.00859 0.44038 0.00708 36287 101562 Broken Rail 0.01218 0.59752 0.00958 48378 136870 Broken Rail 0.01872 0.88739 0.01424 69500 200948 Broken Rail 0.03949 1.92529 0.03090 154164 439380

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05576 0.00558 0 22302 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07632 0.00763 0 30526 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11324 0.01132 0 45292 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.24532 0.02453 0 98120

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57325 1.84840 0.02743 179171 446309 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71407 1.99470 0.02966 193335 481784 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64816 1.88757 0.02802 183066 455881 Grade Crossing Collisions 1.93548 5.73068 0.08511 555571 1383975

Total, All Scenarios 0.59743 2.96528 0.06164 244603 726040 Total, All Scenarios 0.74925 3.54442 0.07730 282337 868686 Total, All Scenarios 0.70203 4.15772 0.09754 311082 1019463 Total, All Scenarios 2.04870 10.66742 0.23648 838023 2614190

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 838 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00379 0.00443 0.00044 1190 2961 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00677 0.00851 0.00085 2274 5676 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.01153 0.01419 0.00142 3798 9475

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00538 0.00168 0.00017 211 884 Intrusion Collisions 0.01176 0.00390 0.00039 490 2051 Intrusion Collisions 0.01962 0.00639 0.00064 803 3362

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 496 Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00070 0.00007 270 549 Diamond Collisions 0.00360 0.00154 0.00015 596 1211 Diamond Collisions 0.00669 0.00286 0.00029 1109 2255

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 449 551 Overspeed 0.00246 0.00072 0.00007 1282 1569 Overspeed 0.00659 0.00217 0.00022 3662 4530 Overspeed 0.00987 0.00315 0.00031 5392 6650

Broken Rail 0.00689 0.00215 0.00021 3767 4626 Broken Rail 0.01426 0.00417 0.00042 7442 9108 Broken Rail 0.02997 0.00988 0.00099 16652 20603 Broken Rail 0.05111 0.01619 0.00162 27860 34336

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2554 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01507 0.00149 0 5976 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03703 0.00370 0 14812 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05849 0.00583 0 23342

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04676 0.01662 0.00085 3324 7549 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08942 0.02806 0.00144 5583 12699 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11436 0.04343 0.00222 8669 19680 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.25053 0.08811 0.00451 17576 39928

Total, All Scenarios 0.05939 0.02811 0.00200 8219 17040 Total, All Scenarios 0.11692 0.05482 0.00410 15977 33746 Total, All Scenarios 0.17303 0.10646 0.00852 32343 68563 Total, All Scenarios 0.34934 0.18938 0.01462 56539 119349

0.65682 2.99339 0.06364 252823 743081 0.86617 3.59924 0.08140 298314 902432 0.87506 4.26418 0.10606 343425 1088026 2.39805 10.85680 0.25110 894562 2733539

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

Results Summary: Basic PTC Case, Timeout 120 seconds, Latency 10 seconds

Table R1a: Full Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Springfield Table R1d: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Whole Corridor

PTC Normal Operating State

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

Table R2a: Summer, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R2b: Summer, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, PTC Normal, Springfield Table R2d: Summer, PTC Normal, Whole Corridor

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

Table R3a: All Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, PTC Normal, Springfield Table R3d: All Year, PTC Normal, Whole Corridor

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

PTC Timeout Operating State

Table R4a: Full Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R4b: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R4c: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Springfield Table R4d: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Whole Corridor

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

Table R5a: Summer, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R5b: Summer, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R5c: Summer, PTC Timeout, Springfield Table R5d: Summer, PTC Timeout, Whole Corridor

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

Table R6a: All Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R6b: All Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R6c: All Year, PTC Timeout, Springfield Table R6d: All Year, PTC timeout, Whole Corridor

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

PTC Totals, All Operating States, All Year

Table R7a: totals: All Year, All Operating States, Joliet Table R7b: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Bloomington Table R7c: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Springfield Table R7d: Grand Total: All Year, All Operating States, Whole Corridor

There are no seasonal traffic 

variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one 

risk calculation is needed for 

the full year, and there is no 

separate summer calculation

There are no seasonal traffic 

variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one 

risk calculation is needed for 

the full year, and there is no 

separate summer calculation

There are no seasonal traffic 

variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one 

risk calculation is needed for 

the full year, and there is no 

separate summer calculation

There are no seasonal traffic 

variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one 

risk calculation is needed for 

the full year, and there is no 

separate summer calculation

Results Summary Page 1
Worksheet 3:

PTC Case, Timeout 360 secondsLatency 10 seconds.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00359 0.25458 0.00973 11079 65731 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00470 0.29589 0.01123 12735 76003 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00706 0.43578 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01051 0.30042 0.01067 12874 74934 Intrusion Collisions 0.01118 0.30232 0.01074 12884 75321 Intrusion Collisions 0.01719 0.43395 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00266 0.00008 93 596 Diamond Collisions 0.00023 0.00242 0.00007 85 543 Diamond Collisions 0.00049 0.00531 0

Overspeed 0.00117 0.06016 0.00097 4957 13875 Overspeed 0.00125 0.06128 0.00098 4961 14036 Overspeed 0.00192 0.09100 0

Broken Rail 0.00855 0.43841 0.00705 36125 101108 Broken Rail 0.00910 0.44654 0.00716 36154 102287 Broken Rail 0.01399 0.66318 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05547 0.00555 0 22188 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05699 0.00570 0 22798 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08457 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57069 1.84014 0.02731 178371 444315 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.53365 1.49071 0.02217 144485 360053 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.48439 1.41064 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59476 2.95184 0.06135 243499 722746 Total, All Scenarios 0.56011 2.65615 0.05804 211304 651041 Total, All Scenarios 0.52505 3.12443 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00125 0.00013 334 835 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00341 0.00398 0.00040 1071 2665 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00640 0.00804 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00247 0.00081 0.00008 101 425 Intrusion Collisions 0.00448 0.00140 0.00014 175 736 Intrusion Collisions 0.00998 0.00331 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 242 493 Diamond Collisions 0.00125 0.00053 0.00005 207 421 Diamond Collisions 0.00279 0.00120 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00025 0.00003 447 548 Overspeed 0.00216 0.00063 0.00006 1125 1377 Overspeed 0.00575 0.00190 0

Broken Rail 0.00686 0.00214 0.00021 3750 4605 Broken Rail 0.01177 0.00344 0.00034 6143 7519 Broken Rail 0.02528 0.00833 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00635 0.00064 0 2541 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01282 0.00128 0 5127 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03183 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04655 0.01654 0.00085 3309 7515 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07381 0.02316 0.00119 4608 10482 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09647 0.03664 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05912 0.02798 0.00199 8182 16963 Total, All Scenarios 0.09688 0.04597 0.00347 13331 28327 Total, All Scenarios 0.14667 0.09124 0

0.65388 2.97982 0.06335 251681 739709 0.65698 2.70211 0.06151 224634 679369 0.67172 3.21567 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00133 0.08837 0.00336 3811 22732 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00183 0.12177 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00371 0.10041 0.00357 4279 25016 Intrusion Collisions 0.00571 0.14412 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00007 0.00072 0.00002 25 162 Diamond Collisions 0.00014 0.00149 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00041 0.02035 0.00033 1648 4662 Overspeed 0.00064 0.03022 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00302 0.14830 0.00238 12007 33971 Broken Rail 0.00465 0.22025 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01893 0.00189 0 7572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02809 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.17723 0.49509 0.00736 47986 119580 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16087 0.46850 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.18579 0.87217 0.01891 69756 213693 Total, All Scenarios 0.17383 1.01444 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00035 0.00042 0.00004 113 282 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00034 0.00043 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00087 0.00027 0.00003 34 144 Intrusion Collisions 0.00172 0.00057 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00037 0.00016 0.00002 62 125 Diamond Collisions 0.00078 0.00033 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00029 0.00008 0.00001 151 184 Overspeed 0.00081 0.00027 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00242 0.00071 0.00007 1265 1548 Broken Rail 0.00455 0.00150 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00218 0.00020 0 822 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00503 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01520 0.00477 0.00024 949 2159 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01738 0.00660 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.01951 0.00860 0.00061 2574 5264 Total, All Scenarios 0.02559 0.01474 0

0.20530 0.88077 0.01952 72330 218957 0.19942 1.02917 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00359 0.25458 0.00973 11079 65731 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00603 0.38426 0.01459 16546 98734 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00889 0.55754 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01051 0.30042 0.01067 12874 74934 Intrusion Collisions 0.01490 0.40272 0.01430 17163 100337 Intrusion Collisions 0.02290 0.57807 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00266 0.00008 93 596 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00314 0.00009 110 705 Diamond Collisions 0.00063 0.00679 0

Overspeed 0.00117 0.06016 0.00097 4957 13875 Overspeed 0.00166 0.08163 0.00131 6609 18698 Overspeed 0.00256 0.12123 0

Broken Rail 0.00855 0.43841 0.00705 36125 101108 Broken Rail 0.01212 0.59485 0.00954 48162 136259 Broken Rail 0.01864 0.88343 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05547 0.00555 0 22188 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07592 0.00759 0 30369 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11266 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57069 1.84014 0.02731 178371 444315 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71088 1.98579 0.02953 192471 479632 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64526 1.87914 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59476 2.95184 0.06135 243499 722746 Total, All Scenarios 0.74589 3.52832 0.07695 281060 864734 Total, All Scenarios 0.69888 4.13887 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00125 0.00013 334 835 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00377 0.00441 0.00044 1184 2947 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00674 0.00847 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00247 0.00081 0.00008 101 425 Intrusion Collisions 0.00535 0.00167 0.00017 210 880 Intrusion Collisions 0.01170 0.00388 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 242 493 Diamond Collisions 0.00162 0.00069 0.00007 269 546 Diamond Collisions 0.00358 0.00153 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00025 0.00003 447 548 Overspeed 0.00244 0.00071 0.00007 1276 1562 Overspeed 0.00656 0.00216 0

Broken Rail 0.00686 0.00214 0.00021 3750 4605 Broken Rail 0.01419 0.00415 0.00041 7409 9067 Broken Rail 0.02983 0.00983 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00635 0.00064 0 2541 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01500 0.00148 0 5949 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03686 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04655 0.01654 0.00085 3309 7515 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08900 0.02793 0.00143 5557 12641 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11385 0.04324 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05912 0.02798 0.00199 8182 16963 Total, All Scenarios 0.11639 0.05457 0.00408 15904 33592 Total, All Scenarios 0.17226 0.10598 0

0.65388 2.97982 0.06335 251681 739709 0.86228 3.58288 0.08102 296964 898326 0.87114 4.24485 0.

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Results Summary: PTC Case, Timeout 360 seconds, Latency 10 seconds

PTC Normal Operating State

Table R1a: Full Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Sprin

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R2b: Summer, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, PTC Normal, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R3a: All Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, PTC Normal, Springf

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
Worksheet 3:

PTC Case, Timeout 360 secondsLatency 10 seconds.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00002 0.00114 0.00004 49 293 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00002 0.00136 0.00005 58 348 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00003 0.00163 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00005 0.00149 0.00005 64 372 Intrusion Collisions 0.00006 0.00150 0.00005 64 374 Intrusion Collisions 0.00009 0.00215 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0Overspeed 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 55 154 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00068 0.00001 55 155 Overspeed 0.00002 0.00101 0Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00202 0.00003 167 466 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00206 0.00003 167 472 Broken Rail 0.00006 0.00306 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00037 0.00004 0 147 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00038 0.00004 0 151 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00056 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00263 0.00848 0.00013 822 2048 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00246 0.00687 0.00010 666 1660 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00223 0.00650 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00275 0.01418 0.00030 1157 3483 Total, All Scenarios 0.00260 0.01285 0.00029 1010 3161 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 2 4 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00002 0.00002 0.00000 6 15 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00003 0.00004 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1 2 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 1 4 Intrusion Collisions 0.00005 0.00002 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 3 4 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Overspeed 0.00003 0.00001 0

Broken Rail 0.00003 0.00001 0.00000 17 21 Broken Rail 0.00005 0.00002 0.00000 28 34 Broken Rail 0.00011 0.00004 0Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 0 15 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00007 0.00001 0 26 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00015 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00021 0.00008 0.00000 15 34 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00033 0.00010 0.00001 21 47 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00043 0.00016 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00027 0.00014 0.00001 39 82 Total, All Scenarios 0.00044 0.00022 0.00002 62 135 Total, All Scenarios 0.00066 0.00042 0

0.00303 0.01431 0.00031 1196 3565 0.00304 0.01307 0.00031 1072 3296 0.00310 0.01534 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00040 0.00002 17.1 102.1 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00054 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21.2 124.1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00071 0Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.4 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18.2 51.6 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00033 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00068 0.00001 55.4 156.6 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00102 0Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 0.0 50.3 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00019 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00082 0.00228 0.00003 221.2 551.3 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00074 0.00216 0Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00086 0.00421 0.00009 333.2 1036.4 Total, All Scenarios 0.00081 0.00496 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.5 1.4 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.8 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.3 0.6 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.0 1.3 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 5.8 7.1 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0.0 3.0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00011 0.00003 0.00000 6.9 15.7 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00008 0.00003 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00013 0.00006 0.00000 14.7 29.7 Total, All Scenarios 0.00012 0.00007 0

0.00099 0.00427 0.00010 347.9 1066.1 0.00092 0.00503 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00002 0.00114 0.00004 49 293 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00003 0.00175 0.00007 75 450 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00004 0.00217 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00005 0.00149 0.00005 64 372 Intrusion Collisions 0.00008 0.00200 0.00007 85 498 Intrusion Collisions 0.00012 0.00287 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0

Overspeed 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 55 154 Overspeed 0.00002 0.00090 0.00001 73 207 Overspeed 0.00003 0.00134 0

Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00202 0.00003 167 466 Broken Rail 0.00006 0.00274 0.00004 222 628 Broken Rail 0.00009 0.00407 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00037 0.00004 0 147 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00050 0.00005 0 202 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00075 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00263 0.00848 0.00013 822 2048 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00328 0.00916 0.00014 887 2211 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00297 0.00866 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00275 0.01418 0.00030 1157 3483 Total, All Scenarios 0.00346 0.01706 0.00038 1343 4197 Total, All Scenarios 0.00325 0.01988 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 2 4 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00002 0.00002 0.00000 7 16 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00003 0.00004 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1 2 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0.00000 1 4 Intrusion Collisions 0.00006 0.00002 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 3 4 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 7 9 Overspeed 0.00003 0.00001 0

Broken Rail 0.00003 0.00001 0.00000 17 21 Broken Rail 0.00006 0.00002 0.00000 33 41 Broken Rail 0.00013 0.00004 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 0 15 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00008 0.00001 0 29 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00018 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00021 0.00008 0.00000 15 34 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00044 0.00014 0.00001 28 63 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00051 0.00019 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00027 0.00014 0.00001 39 82 Total, All Scenarios 0.00057 0.00028 0.00002 77 165 Total, All Scenarios 0.00078 0.00049 0

bbb

0.00303 0.01431 0.00031 1196 3565 0.00403 0.01734 0.00040 1420 4362 0.00402 0.02037 0

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

PTC Timeout Operating State

Table R4a: Full Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R4b: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R4c: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Spri

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R5a: Summer, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R5b: Summer, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R5c: Summer, PTC Timeout, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R6a: All Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R6b: All Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R6c: All Year, PTC Timeout, Spring

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
Worksheet 3:

PTC Case, Timeout 360 secondsLatency 10 seconds.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25571 0.00977 11129 66024 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00606 0.38601 0.01465 16621 99184 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00892 0.55972 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01056 0.30191 0.01073 12938 75305 Intrusion Collisions 0.01497 0.40472 0.01437 17248 100835 Intrusion Collisions 0.02302 0.58094 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 94 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00315 0.00009 110 707 Diamond Collisions 0.00063 0.00680 0

Overspeed 0.00119 0.06083 0.00098 5012 14028 Overspeed 0.00168 0.08253 0.00132 6682 18905 Overspeed 0.00259 0.12257 0

Broken Rail 0.00859 0.44043 0.00708 36291 101574 Broken Rail 0.01218 0.59759 0.00958 48384 136887 Broken Rail 0.01873 0.88750 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05584 0.00558 0 22335 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07643 0.00764 0 30571 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11341 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57332 1.84863 0.02744 179193 446363 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71416 1.99495 0.02966 193358 481843 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64824 1.88780 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59751 2.96602 0.06166 244656 726229 Total, All Scenarios 0.74935 3.54538 0.07733 282404 868932 Total, All Scenarios 0.70213 4.15875 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 839 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00379 0.00443 0.00044 1190 2963 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00677 0.00851 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 428 Intrusion Collisions 0.00538 0.00168 0.00017 211 884 Intrusion Collisions 0.01176 0.00390 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 496 Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00070 0.00007 270 549 Diamond Collisions 0.00359 0.00154 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 450 552 Overspeed 0.00246 0.00072 0.00007 1283 1570 Overspeed 0.00659 0.00217 0

Broken Rail 0.00689 0.00215 0.00021 3767 4626 Broken Rail 0.01426 0.00417 0.00042 7442 9108 Broken Rail 0.02997 0.00988 0Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00639 0.00064 0 2556 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01508 0.00149 0 5978 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03704 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04676 0.01662 0.00085 3324 7549 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08945 0.02807 0.00144 5585 12704 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11436 0.04344 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05939 0.02812 0.00200 8221 17045 Total, All Scenarios 0.11696 0.05484 0.00410 15981 33757 Total, All Scenarios 0.17304 0.10647 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65691 2.99413 0.06366 252877 743274 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86631 3.60022 0.08143 298385 902688 Total Passenger + Freight 0.87517 4.26522 0.

PTC Totals, All Operating States, All Year

Table R7a: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Joliet Table R7b: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Bloomington Table R7c: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, 

Results Summary 
Worksheet 4:

PTC Case, Timeout 60 secondsLatency 10 seconds

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25551 0.00977 11120 65973 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00472 0.29698 0.01127 12782 76283 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00709 0.43738 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01055 0.30153 0.01071 12921 75210 Intrusion Collisions 0.01122 0.30343 0.01077 12931 75599 Intrusion Collisions 0.01726 0.43555 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 93 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00023 0.00243 0.00007 85 545 Diamond Collisions 0.00050 0.00533 0

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06038 0.00097 4976 13926 Overspeed 0.00125 0.06150 0.00099 4980 14088 Overspeed 0.00193 0.09134 0

Broken Rail 0.00858 0.44003 0.00707 36258 101481 Broken Rail 0.00913 0.44819 0.00719 36288 102665 Broken Rail 0.01404 0.66562 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05567 0.00557 0 22270 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05720 0.00572 0 22882 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08489 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57280 1.84693 0.02741 179028 445954 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.53562 1.49620 0.02225 145018 361381 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.48617 1.41585 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59695 2.96273 0.06158 244397 725412 Total, All Scenarios 0.56217 2.66594 0.05825 212083 653442 Total, All Scenarios 0.52699 3.13596 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 838 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00343 0.00400 0.00040 1075 2675 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00642 0.00807 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00450 0.00140 0.00014 176 739 Intrusion Collisions 0.01001 0.00332 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495 Diamond Collisions 0.00126 0.00054 0.00005 208 422 Diamond Collisions 0.00281 0.00120 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 550 Overspeed 0.00216 0.00063 0.00006 1129 1382 Overspeed 0.00577 0.00190 0

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00215 0.00021 3764 4622 Broken Rail 0.01181 0.00345 0.00035 6166 7547 Broken Rail 0.02537 0.00836 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2551 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01287 0.00129 0 5146 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03195 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04672 0.01661 0.00085 3321 7543 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07408 0.02325 0.00119 4625 10521 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09683 0.03678 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05934 0.02808 0.00200 8213 17025 Total, All Scenarios 0.09723 0.04614 0.00348 13380 28432 Total, All Scenarios 0.14722 0.09158 0

0.65629 2.99081 0.06358 252609 742437 0.65941 2.71208 0.06173 225463 681874 0.67420 3.22753 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00134 0.08869 0.00337 3825 22815 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00183 0.12221 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00373 0.10078 0.00358 4295 25108 Intrusion Collisions 0.00573 0.14465 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00007 0.00072 0.00002 25 162 Diamond Collisions 0.00014 0.00149 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00042 0.02043 0.00033 1654 4679 Overspeed 0.00064 0.03034 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00303 0.14885 0.00239 12052 34097 Broken Rail 0.00466 0.22106 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01900 0.00190 0 7599 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02819 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.17789 0.49691 0.00739 48163 120021 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16147 0.47023 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.18647 0.87538 0.01898 70014 214481 Total, All Scenarios 0.17447 1.01818 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00035 0.00042 0.00004 113 283 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00034 0.00043 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00088 0.00027 0.00003 34 144 Intrusion Collisions 0.00173 0.00057 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00037 0.00016 0.00002 62 126 Diamond Collisions 0.00079 0.00034 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00029 0.00008 0.00001 151 185 Overspeed 0.00081 0.00027 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00243 0.00071 0.00007 1270 1554 Broken Rail 0.00457 0.00151 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00219 0.00020 0 825 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00505 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01526 0.00479 0.00025 952 2167 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01745 0.00663 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.01958 0.00863 0.00061 2583 5284 Total, All Scenarios 0.02568 0.01479 0

0.20606 0.88402 0.01959 72597 219765 0.20016 1.03297 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25551 0.00977 11120 65973 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00606 0.38568 0.01464 16607 99098 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00892 0.55960 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01055 0.30153 0.01071 12921 75210 Intrusion Collisions 0.01495 0.40421 0.01435 17226 100707 Intrusion Collisions 0.02299 0.58020 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 93 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00315 0.00009 110 707 Diamond Collisions 0.00063 0.00682 0

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06038 0.00097 4976 13926 Overspeed 0.00167 0.08193 0.00131 6633 18767 Overspeed 0.00257 0.12168 0

Broken Rail 0.00858 0.44003 0.00707 36258 101481 Broken Rail 0.01217 0.59704 0.00957 48339 136761 Broken Rail 0.01871 0.88669 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05567 0.00557 0 22270 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07620 0.00762 0 30481 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11308 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57280 1.84693 0.02741 179028 445954 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71350 1.99312 0.02964 193181 481401 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64764 1.88607 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59695 2.96273 0.06158 244397 725412 Total, All Scenarios 0.74864 3.54133 0.07723 282097 867923 Total, All Scenarios 0.70146 4.15413 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 838 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00378 0.00442 0.00044 1188 2958 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00676 0.00850 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00537 0.00168 0.00017 210 883 Intrusion Collisions 0.01175 0.00390 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495 Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00070 0.00007 270 548 Diamond Collisions 0.00359 0.00154 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 550 Overspeed 0.00245 0.00072 0.00007 1281 1567 Overspeed 0.00658 0.00217 0

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00215 0.00021 3764 4622 Broken Rail 0.01425 0.00416 0.00042 7436 9101 Broken Rail 0.02994 0.00987 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2551 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01506 0.00149 0 5971 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03700 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04672 0.01661 0.00085 3321 7543 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08933 0.02804 0.00144 5578 12688 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11427 0.04340 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05934 0.02808 0.00200 8213 17025 Total, All Scenarios 0.11682 0.05477 0.00409 15963 33716 Total, All Scenarios 0.17290 0.10637 0

0.65629 2.99081 0.06358 252609 742437 0.86546 3.59610 0.08132 298060 901639 0.87436 4.26050 0.

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Results Summary: PTC Case, Timeout 60 seconds, Latency 10 seconds.

PTC Normal Operating State

Table R1a: Full Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Sprin

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R2b: Summer, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, PTC Normal, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R3a: All Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, PTC Normal, Springf

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
Worksheet 4:

PTC Case, Timeout 60 secondsLatency 10 seconds

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00019 0.00001 8 49 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00023 0.00001 10 58 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00027 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0.00001 10 60 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0.00001 10 60 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00035 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0Overspeed 0.00000 0.00009 0.00000 7 20 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00009 0.00000 7 21 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00013 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00033 0.00001 27 77 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00034 0.00001 27 78 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00050 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00005 0.00001 0 22 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0.00001 0 23 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00008 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00043 0.00140 0.00002 135 337 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00040 0.00113 0.00002 110 273 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00037 0.00107 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00045 0.00230 0.00005 189 565 Total, All Scenarios 0.00043 0.00209 0.00005 164 513 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 2 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 3 3 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 5 6 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 4 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 2 6 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00006 0.00002 0.00000 3 8 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00005 0.00002 0.00000 6 13 Total, All Scenarios 0.00007 0.00004 0.00000 10 22 Total, All Scenarios 0.00011 0.00007 0

0.00050 0.00233 0.00005 195 579 0.00050 0.00212 0.00005 175 535 0.00051 0.00248 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00007 0.00000 2.9 17.0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00009 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 3.4 20.0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00012 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 2.4 6.9 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00004 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00011 0.00000 9.1 25.8 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00017 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0.0 7.5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00013 0.00038 0.00001 36.4 90.7 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00012 0.00036 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00014 0.00068 0.00002 54.2 168.0 Total, All Scenarios 0.00013 0.00080 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.2 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.2 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.0 1.2 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 1.1 2.6 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 2.4 4.9 Total, All Scenarios 0.00002 0.00001 0

0.00016 0.00069 0.00002 56.6 172.9 0.00015 0.00081 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00019 0.00001 8 49 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00029 0.00001 13 75 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00036 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0.00001 10 60 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00032 0.00001 14 80 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00046 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00009 0.00000 7 20 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00012 0.00000 10 28 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00018 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00033 0.00001 27 77 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00045 0.00001 37 103 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00005 0.00001 0 22 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00008 0.00001 0 30 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00011 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00043 0.00140 0.00002 135 337 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00054 0.00151 0.00002 146 364 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00049 0.00143 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00045 0.00230 0.00005 189 565 Total, All Scenarios 0.00057 0.00277 0.00006 219 681 Total, All Scenarios 0.00053 0.00322 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 3 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 3 3 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 2 6 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00002 0.00000 5 10 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00008 0.00003 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00005 0.00002 0.00000 6 13 Total, All Scenarios 0.00010 0.00004 0.00000 13 27 Total, All Scenarios 0.00013 0.00008 0

bbb

0.00050 0.00233 0.00005 195 579 0.00066 0.00281 0.00006 231 707 0.00066 0.00330 0

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

PTC Timeout Operating State

Table R4a: Full Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R4b: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R4c: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Spri

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R5a: Summer, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R5b: Summer, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R5c: Summer, PTC Timeout, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R6a: All Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R6b: All Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R6c: All Year, PTC Timeout, Spring

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
Worksheet 4:

PTC Case, Timeout 60 secondsLatency 10 seconds

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25570 0.00977 11129 66022 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00606 0.38597 0.01465 16619 99173 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00893 0.55996 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01055 0.30177 0.01072 12932 75270 Intrusion Collisions 0.01497 0.40453 0.01436 17240 100787 Intrusion Collisions 0.02301 0.58066 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 94 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00316 0.00009 111 708 Diamond Collisions 0.00063 0.00683 0

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06047 0.00097 4983 13946 Overspeed 0.00167 0.08205 0.00132 6643 18795 Overspeed 0.00257 0.12186 0

Broken Rail 0.00859 0.44036 0.00708 36285 101557 Broken Rail 0.01218 0.59749 0.00958 48376 136864 Broken Rail 0.01872 0.88736 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05573 0.00557 0 22292 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07628 0.00763 0 30511 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11319 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57323 1.84832 0.02743 179164 446291 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71404 1.99462 0.02966 193327 481765 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64813 1.88750 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59740 2.96503 0.06163 244585 725977 Total, All Scenarios 0.74921 3.54410 0.07729 282315 868604 Total, All Scenarios 0.70199 4.15735 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 838 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00378 0.00443 0.00044 1189 2960 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00677 0.00850 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00538 0.00168 0.00017 211 884 Intrusion Collisions 0.01176 0.00390 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495 Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00070 0.00007 270 549 Diamond Collisions 0.00359 0.00154 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 449 551 Overspeed 0.00246 0.00072 0.00007 1282 1569 Overspeed 0.00659 0.00217 0

Broken Rail 0.00689 0.00215 0.00021 3766 4625 Broken Rail 0.01426 0.00416 0.00042 7441 9107 Broken Rail 0.02997 0.00988 0Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2553 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01507 0.00149 0 5976 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03703 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04676 0.01662 0.00085 3324 7548 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08941 0.02806 0.00144 5582 12698 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11436 0.04343 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05938 0.02810 0.00200 8219 17039 Total, All Scenarios 0.11691 0.05481 0.00410 15976 33743 Total, All Scenarios 0.17303 0.10645 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65679 2.99314 0.06363 252804 743016 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86612 3.59891 0.08139 298291 902347 Total Passenger + Freight 0.87502 4.26380 0.

PTC Totals, All Operating States, All Year

Table R7a: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Joliet Table R7b: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Bloomington Table R7c: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, 

Results Summary 
Worksheet 4:

PTC Case, Timeout 60 secondsLatency 10 seconds

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25551 0.00977 11120 65973 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00472 0.29698 0.01127 12782 76283 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00709 0.43738 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01055 0.30153 0.01071 12921 75210 Intrusion Collisions 0.01122 0.30343 0.01077 12931 75599 Intrusion Collisions 0.01726 0.43555 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 93 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00023 0.00243 0.00007 85 545 Diamond Collisions 0.00050 0.00533 0

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06038 0.00097 4976 13926 Overspeed 0.00125 0.06150 0.00099 4980 14088 Overspeed 0.00193 0.09134 0

Broken Rail 0.00858 0.44003 0.00707 36258 101481 Broken Rail 0.00913 0.44819 0.00719 36288 102665 Broken Rail 0.01404 0.66562 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05567 0.00557 0 22270 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05720 0.00572 0 22882 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08489 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57280 1.84693 0.02741 179028 445954 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.53562 1.49620 0.02225 145018 361381 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.48617 1.41585 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59695 2.96273 0.06158 244397 725412 Total, All Scenarios 0.56217 2.66594 0.05825 212083 653442 Total, All Scenarios 0.52699 3.13596 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 838 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00343 0.00400 0.00040 1075 2675 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00642 0.00807 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00450 0.00140 0.00014 176 739 Intrusion Collisions 0.01001 0.00332 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495 Diamond Collisions 0.00126 0.00054 0.00005 208 422 Diamond Collisions 0.00281 0.00120 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 550 Overspeed 0.00216 0.00063 0.00006 1129 1382 Overspeed 0.00577 0.00190 0

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00215 0.00021 3764 4622 Broken Rail 0.01181 0.00345 0.00035 6166 7547 Broken Rail 0.02537 0.00836 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2551 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01287 0.00129 0 5146 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03195 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04672 0.01661 0.00085 3321 7543 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07408 0.02325 0.00119 4625 10521 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09683 0.03678 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05934 0.02808 0.00200 8213 17025 Total, All Scenarios 0.09723 0.04614 0.00348 13380 28432 Total, All Scenarios 0.14722 0.09158 0

0.65629 2.99081 0.06358 252609 742437 0.65941 2.71208 0.06173 225463 681874 0.67420 3.22753 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00134 0.08869 0.00337 3825 22815 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00183 0.12221 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00373 0.10078 0.00358 4295 25108 Intrusion Collisions 0.00573 0.14465 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00007 0.00072 0.00002 25 162 Diamond Collisions 0.00014 0.00149 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00042 0.02043 0.00033 1654 4679 Overspeed 0.00064 0.03034 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00303 0.14885 0.00239 12052 34097 Broken Rail 0.00466 0.22106 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01900 0.00190 0 7599 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02819 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.17789 0.49691 0.00739 48163 120021 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16147 0.47023 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.18647 0.87538 0.01898 70014 214481 Total, All Scenarios 0.17447 1.01818 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00035 0.00042 0.00004 113 283 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00034 0.00043 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00088 0.00027 0.00003 34 144 Intrusion Collisions 0.00173 0.00057 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00037 0.00016 0.00002 62 126 Diamond Collisions 0.00079 0.00034 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00029 0.00008 0.00001 151 185 Overspeed 0.00081 0.00027 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00243 0.00071 0.00007 1270 1554 Broken Rail 0.00457 0.00151 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00219 0.00020 0 825 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00505 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01526 0.00479 0.00025 952 2167 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01745 0.00663 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.01958 0.00863 0.00061 2583 5284 Total, All Scenarios 0.02568 0.01479 0

0.20606 0.88402 0.01959 72597 219765 0.20016 1.03297 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25551 0.00977 11120 65973 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00606 0.38568 0.01464 16607 99098 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00892 0.55960 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01055 0.30153 0.01071 12921 75210 Intrusion Collisions 0.01495 0.40421 0.01435 17226 100707 Intrusion Collisions 0.02299 0.58020 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 93 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00315 0.00009 110 707 Diamond Collisions 0.00063 0.00682 0

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06038 0.00097 4976 13926 Overspeed 0.00167 0.08193 0.00131 6633 18767 Overspeed 0.00257 0.12168 0

Broken Rail 0.00858 0.44003 0.00707 36258 101481 Broken Rail 0.01217 0.59704 0.00957 48339 136761 Broken Rail 0.01871 0.88669 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05567 0.00557 0 22270 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07620 0.00762 0 30481 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11308 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57280 1.84693 0.02741 179028 445954 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71350 1.99312 0.02964 193181 481401 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64764 1.88607 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59695 2.96273 0.06158 244397 725412 Total, All Scenarios 0.74864 3.54133 0.07723 282097 867923 Total, All Scenarios 0.70146 4.15413 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 838 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00378 0.00442 0.00044 1188 2958 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00676 0.00850 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00537 0.00168 0.00017 210 883 Intrusion Collisions 0.01175 0.00390 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495 Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00070 0.00007 270 548 Diamond Collisions 0.00359 0.00154 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 550 Overspeed 0.00245 0.00072 0.00007 1281 1567 Overspeed 0.00658 0.00217 0

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00215 0.00021 3764 4622 Broken Rail 0.01425 0.00416 0.00042 7436 9101 Broken Rail 0.02994 0.00987 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2551 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01506 0.00149 0 5971 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03700 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04672 0.01661 0.00085 3321 7543 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08933 0.02804 0.00144 5578 12688 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11427 0.04340 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05934 0.02808 0.00200 8213 17025 Total, All Scenarios 0.11682 0.05477 0.00409 15963 33716 Total, All Scenarios 0.17290 0.10637 0

0.65629 2.99081 0.06358 252609 742437 0.86546 3.59610 0.08132 298060 901639 0.87436 4.26050 0.

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Results Summary: PTC Case, Timeout 60 seconds, Latency 10 seconds.

PTC Normal Operating State

Table R1a: Full Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Sprin

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R2b: Summer, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, PTC Normal, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R3a: All Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, PTC Normal, Springf

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
Worksheet 4:

PTC Case, Timeout 60 secondsLatency 10 seconds

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00019 0.00001 8 49 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00023 0.00001 10 58 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00027 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0.00001 10 60 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0.00001 10 60 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00035 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0Overspeed 0.00000 0.00009 0.00000 7 20 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00009 0.00000 7 21 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00013 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00033 0.00001 27 77 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00034 0.00001 27 78 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00050 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00005 0.00001 0 22 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0.00001 0 23 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00008 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00043 0.00140 0.00002 135 337 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00040 0.00113 0.00002 110 273 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00037 0.00107 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00045 0.00230 0.00005 189 565 Total, All Scenarios 0.00043 0.00209 0.00005 164 513 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 2 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 3 3 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 5 6 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 4 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 2 6 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00006 0.00002 0.00000 3 8 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00005 0.00002 0.00000 6 13 Total, All Scenarios 0.00007 0.00004 0.00000 10 22 Total, All Scenarios 0.00011 0.00007 0

0.00050 0.00233 0.00005 195 579 0.00050 0.00212 0.00005 175 535 0.00051 0.00248 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00007 0.00000 2.9 17.0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00009 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 3.4 20.0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00012 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 2.4 6.9 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00004 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00011 0.00000 9.1 25.8 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00017 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0.0 7.5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00013 0.00038 0.00001 36.4 90.7 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00012 0.00036 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00014 0.00068 0.00002 54.2 168.0 Total, All Scenarios 0.00013 0.00080 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.2 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.2 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.0 1.2 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 1.1 2.6 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 2.4 4.9 Total, All Scenarios 0.00002 0.00001 0

0.00016 0.00069 0.00002 56.6 172.9 0.00015 0.00081 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00019 0.00001 8 49 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00029 0.00001 13 75 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00036 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0.00001 10 60 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00032 0.00001 14 80 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00046 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00009 0.00000 7 20 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00012 0.00000 10 28 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00018 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00033 0.00001 27 77 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00045 0.00001 37 103 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00005 0.00001 0 22 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00008 0.00001 0 30 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00011 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00043 0.00140 0.00002 135 337 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00054 0.00151 0.00002 146 364 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00049 0.00143 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00045 0.00230 0.00005 189 565 Total, All Scenarios 0.00057 0.00277 0.00006 219 681 Total, All Scenarios 0.00053 0.00322 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 3 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 3 3 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 2 6 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00002 0.00000 5 10 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00008 0.00003 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00005 0.00002 0.00000 6 13 Total, All Scenarios 0.00010 0.00004 0.00000 13 27 Total, All Scenarios 0.00013 0.00008 0

bbb

0.00050 0.00233 0.00005 195 579 0.00066 0.00281 0.00006 231 707 0.00066 0.00330 0

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

PTC Timeout Operating State

Table R4a: Full Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R4b: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R4c: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Spri

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R5a: Summer, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R5b: Summer, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R5c: Summer, PTC Timeout, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R6a: All Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R6b: All Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R6c: All Year, PTC Timeout, Spring

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
Worksheet 4:

PTC Case, Timeout 60 secondsLatency 10 seconds

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25570 0.00977 11129 66022 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00606 0.38597 0.01465 16619 99173 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00893 0.55996 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01055 0.30177 0.01072 12932 75270 Intrusion Collisions 0.01497 0.40453 0.01436 17240 100787 Intrusion Collisions 0.02301 0.58066 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 94 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00316 0.00009 111 708 Diamond Collisions 0.00063 0.00683 0

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06047 0.00097 4983 13946 Overspeed 0.00167 0.08205 0.00132 6643 18795 Overspeed 0.00257 0.12186 0

Broken Rail 0.00859 0.44036 0.00708 36285 101557 Broken Rail 0.01218 0.59749 0.00958 48376 136864 Broken Rail 0.01872 0.88736 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05573 0.00557 0 22292 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07628 0.00763 0 30511 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11319 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57323 1.84832 0.02743 179164 446291 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71404 1.99462 0.02966 193327 481765 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64813 1.88750 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59740 2.96503 0.06163 244585 725977 Total, All Scenarios 0.74921 3.54410 0.07729 282315 868604 Total, All Scenarios 0.70199 4.15735 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 838 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00378 0.00443 0.00044 1189 2960 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00677 0.00850 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00538 0.00168 0.00017 211 884 Intrusion Collisions 0.01176 0.00390 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495 Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00070 0.00007 270 549 Diamond Collisions 0.00359 0.00154 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 449 551 Overspeed 0.00246 0.00072 0.00007 1282 1569 Overspeed 0.00659 0.00217 0

Broken Rail 0.00689 0.00215 0.00021 3766 4625 Broken Rail 0.01426 0.00416 0.00042 7441 9107 Broken Rail 0.02997 0.00988 0Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2553 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01507 0.00149 0 5976 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03703 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04676 0.01662 0.00085 3324 7548 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08941 0.02806 0.00144 5582 12698 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11436 0.04343 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05938 0.02810 0.00200 8219 17039 Total, All Scenarios 0.11691 0.05481 0.00410 15976 33743 Total, All Scenarios 0.17303 0.10645 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65679 2.99314 0.06363 252804 743016 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86612 3.59891 0.08139 298291 902347 Total Passenger + Freight 0.87502 4.26380 0.

PTC Totals, All Operating States, All Year

Table R7a: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Joliet Table R7b: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Bloomington Table R7c: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, 

Results Summary 
Worksheet 5:

PTC Case: Timeout 20 seconds,

Latency 10 seconds.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25564 0.00977 11126 66005 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00472 0.29713 0.01127 12788 76320 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00709 0.43760 0.01656 18708 112133 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01541 0.99037 0.03760 42621 254459

Intrusion Collisions 0.01055 0.30168 0.01072 12928 75247 Intrusion Collisions 0.01123 0.30358 0.01078 12938 75636 Intrusion Collisions 0.01727 0.43576 0.01546 18584 108526 Intrusion Collisions 0.03905 1.04102 0.03695 44449 259409

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 94 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00023 0.00243 0.00007 85 545 Diamond Collisions 0.00050 0.00533 0.00016 187 1195 Diamond Collisions 0.00097 0.01043 0.00031 365 2339

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06041 0.00097 4978 13933 Overspeed 0.00125 0.06153 0.00099 4982 14095 Overspeed 0.00193 0.09139 0.00147 7157 20694 Overspeed 0.00436 0.21333 0.00342 17117 48722

Broken Rail 0.00859 0.44024 0.00708 36276 101530 Broken Rail 0.00914 0.44841 0.00719 36305 102715 Broken Rail 0.01405 0.66595 0.01068 52157 150802 Broken Rail 0.03178 1.55460 0.02495 124738 355048

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05570 0.00557 0 22281 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05723 0.00572 0 22893 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08493 0.00849 0 33971 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.19786 0.01979 0 79145

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57308 1.84783 0.02742 179116 446172 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.53588 1.49694 0.02226 145089 361558 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.48641 1.41654 0.02103 137383 342119 Grade Crossing Collisions 1.59537 4.76131 0.07071 461588 1149848

Total, All Scenarios 0.59724 2.96418 0.06161 244517 725767 Total, All Scenarios 0.56245 2.66725 0.05828 212187 653762 Total, All Scenarios 0.52724 3.13749 0.07384 234175 769441 Total, All Scenarios 1.68693 8.76892 0.19373 690878 2148970

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 838 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00343 0.00400 0.00040 1075 2676 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00642 0.00807 0.00081 2158 5387 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.01083 0.01333 0.00133 3568 8901

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00450 0.00140 0.00014 176 739 Intrusion Collisions 0.01002 0.00332 0.00033 418 1748 Intrusion Collisions 0.01700 0.00554 0.00055 696 2914

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495 Diamond Collisions 0.00126 0.00054 0.00005 208 423 Diamond Collisions 0.00281 0.00120 0.00012 465 945 Diamond Collisions 0.00553 0.00237 0.00024 916 1863

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 551 Overspeed 0.00216 0.00063 0.00006 1130 1383 Overspeed 0.00578 0.00190 0.00019 3211 3972 Overspeed 0.00876 0.00279 0.00028 4789 5906

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00215 0.00021 3765 4624 Broken Rail 0.01182 0.00345 0.00035 6169 7550 Broken Rail 0.02538 0.00837 0.00084 14106 17453 Broken Rail 0.04409 0.01397 0.00140 24041 29627

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2552 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01287 0.00129 0 5149 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03196 0.00320 0 12785 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05121 0.00512 0 20485

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04674 0.01661 0.00085 3323 7546 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07411 0.02326 0.00119 4628 10526 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09688 0.03679 0.00188 7344 16671 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.21773 0.07667 0.00393 15294 34744

Total, All Scenarios 0.05937 0.02810 0.00200 8217 17034 Total, All Scenarios 0.09728 0.04616 0.00348 13386 28446 Total, All Scenarios 0.14729 0.09162 0.00737 27702 58961 Total, All Scenarios 0.30394 0.16588 0.01285 49305 104441

0.65661 2.99228 0.06361 252733 742801 0.65973 2.71341 0.06176 225573 682208 0.67453 3.22912 0.08120 261877 828402 1.99087 8.93480 0.20658 740183 2253411

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00134 0.08874 0.00338 3827 22827 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00183 0.12227 0.00464 5243 31403 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00317 0.21101 0.00802 9071 54229

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00373 0.10082 0.00358 4297 25120 Intrusion Collisions 0.00573 0.14472 0.00513 6172 36043 Intrusion Collisions 0.00946 0.24555 0.00871 10469 61163

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00007 0.00072 0.00002 25 162 Diamond Collisions 0.00014 0.00149 0.00004 52 335 Diamond Collisions 0.00021 0.00222 0.00007 78 497

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00042 0.02044 0.00033 1655 4681 Overspeed 0.00064 0.03035 0.00049 2377 6873 Overspeed 0.00106 0.05079 0.00081 4032 11554

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00304 0.14892 0.00239 12058 34113 Broken Rail 0.00467 0.22117 0.00355 17322 50084 Broken Rail 0.00770 0.37010 0.00594 29380 84197

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01901 0.00190 0 7603 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02821 0.00282 0 11282 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04721 0.00472 0 18886

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.17797 0.49716 0.00739 48186 120079 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16155 0.47046 0.00698 45627 113623 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.33952 0.96761 0.01438 93814 233703

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.18656 0.87581 0.01899 70048 214586 Total, All Scenarios 0.17456 1.01868 0.02366 76794 249643 Total, All Scenarios 0.36112 1.89449 0.04265 146842 464230

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00036 0.00043 0.00004 113 283 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00034 0.00043 0.00004 115 286 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00069 0.00085 0.00009 228 570

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00088 0.00027 0.00003 34 144 Intrusion Collisions 0.00173 0.00057 0.00006 72 302 Intrusion Collisions 0.00261 0.00085 0.00008 107 446

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00037 0.00016 0.00002 62 126 Diamond Collisions 0.00079 0.00034 0.00003 130 265 Diamond Collisions 0.00116 0.00050 0.00005 192 391

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00029 0.00008 0.00001 151 185 Overspeed 0.00081 0.00027 0.00003 449 556 Overspeed 0.00110 0.00035 0.00004 601 741

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00243 0.00071 0.00007 1270 1555 Broken Rail 0.00457 0.00151 0.00015 2542 3144 Broken Rail 0.00701 0.00222 0.00022 3812 4699

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00219 0.00020 0 825 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00505 0.00051 0 2022 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00725 0.00071 0 2847

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01526 0.00479 0.00025 953 2168 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01745 0.00663 0.00034 1323 3004 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.03272 0.01142 0.00058 2276 5171

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.01959 0.00864 0.00061 2584 5286 Total, All Scenarios 0.02569 0.01480 0.00116 4631 9579 Total, All Scenarios 0.04529 0.02343 0.00177 7216 14866

0.20616 0.88445 0.01960 72632 219873 0.20025 1.03348 0.02482 81426 259223 0.40641 1.91792 0.04441 154058 479095

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25564 0.00977 11126 66005 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00606 0.38586 0.01465 16615 99147 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00892 0.55987 0.02120 23951 143536 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01858 1.20138 0.04562 51692 308688

Intrusion Collisions 0.01055 0.30168 0.01072 12928 75247 Intrusion Collisions 0.01496 0.40441 0.01436 17234 100756 Intrusion Collisions 0.02300 0.58049 0.02059 24756 144570 Intrusion Collisions 0.04851 1.28657 0.04567 54918 320573

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 94 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00315 0.00009 110 708 Diamond Collisions 0.00063 0.00682 0.00020 239 1530 Diamond Collisions 0.00118 0.01265 0.00038 443 2837

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06041 0.00097 4978 13933 Overspeed 0.00167 0.08197 0.00131 6637 18776 Overspeed 0.00257 0.12174 0.00195 9534 27567 Overspeed 0.00542 0.26412 0.00424 21149 60276

Broken Rail 0.00859 0.44024 0.00708 36276 101530 Broken Rail 0.01217 0.59733 0.00958 48363 136828 Broken Rail 0.01872 0.88712 0.01423 69479 200886 Broken Rail 0.03948 1.92470 0.03089 154117 439245

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05570 0.00557 0 22281 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07624 0.00762 0 30496 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11313 0.01131 0 45253 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.24508 0.02451 0 98030

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57308 1.84783 0.02742 179116 446172 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71385 1.99409 0.02965 193275 481637 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64796 1.88700 0.02801 183010 455742 Grade Crossing Collisions 1.93489 5.72892 0.08509 555401 1383551

Total, All Scenarios 0.59724 2.96418 0.06161 244517 725767 Total, All Scenarios 0.74901 3.54306 0.07727 282235 868349 Total, All Scenarios 0.70180 4.15617 0.09750 310969 1019084 Total, All Scenarios 2.04806 10.66341 0.23638 837721 2613200

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 838 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00378 0.00443 0.00044 1189 2959 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00676 0.00850 0.00085 2273 5673 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.01152 0.01419 0.00142 3797 9471

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00538 0.00168 0.00017 211 883 Intrusion Collisions 0.01175 0.00390 0.00039 490 2050 Intrusion Collisions 0.01961 0.00639 0.00064 803 3361

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495 Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00070 0.00007 270 549 Diamond Collisions 0.00359 0.00154 0.00015 595 1210 Diamond Collisions 0.00669 0.00286 0.00029 1109 2254

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 551 Overspeed 0.00245 0.00072 0.00007 1281 1568 Overspeed 0.00659 0.00217 0.00022 3660 4528 Overspeed 0.00986 0.00314 0.00031 5390 6647

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00215 0.00021 3765 4624 Broken Rail 0.01425 0.00416 0.00042 7440 9105 Broken Rail 0.02996 0.00987 0.00099 16648 20597 Broken Rail 0.05110 0.01618 0.00162 27853 34327

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2552 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01506 0.00149 0 5974 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03702 0.00370 0 14807 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05846 0.00583 0 23333

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04674 0.01661 0.00085 3323 7546 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08938 0.02805 0.00144 5581 12694 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11433 0.04342 0.00222 8667 19675 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.25045 0.08809 0.00451 17570 39915

Total, All Scenarios 0.05937 0.02810 0.00200 8217 17034 Total, All Scenarios 0.11687 0.05480 0.00409 15971 33732 Total, All Scenarios 0.17298 0.10642 0.00852 32333 68541 Total, All Scenarios 0.34922 0.18931 0.01462 56521 119307

0.65661 2.99228 0.06361 252733 742801 0.86589 3.59786 0.08136 298206 902081 0.87478 4.26259 0.10602 343302 1087625 2.39728 10.85272 0.25100 894241 2732506

Results Summary: PTC Case, Timeout 20 seconds, Latency 10 seconds.

PTC Normal Operating State

Table R1a: Full Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Springfield Table R1d: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Whole Corridor

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

Table R3a: All Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, PTC Normal, Springfield Table R3d: All Year, PTC Normal, Whole Corridor

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

Table R2a: Summer, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R2b: Summer, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, PTC Normal, Springfield Table R2d: Summer, PTC Normal, Whole Corridor

Results Summary Page 1
Worksheet 5:

PTC Case: Timeout 20 seconds,

Latency 10 seconds.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00006 0.00000 3 16 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 3 19 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00009 0.00000 4 23 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00023 0.00001 10 59

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 3 19 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 3 19 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00011 0.00000 5 27 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00026 0.00001 11 65

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 1 4 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 1 4 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 2 6 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00006 0.00000 5 14

Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00011 0.00000 9 25 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00011 0.00000 9 25 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00016 0.00000 13 37 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 31 87

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 6 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 6 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0 9 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00005 0.00001 0 21

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00014 0.00046 0.00001 44 110 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00013 0.00037 0.00001 36 89 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00012 0.00035 0.00001 34 84 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00039 0.00117 0.00002 114 283

Total, All Scenarios 0.00015 0.00074 0.00002 61 180 Total, All Scenarios 0.00014 0.00066 0.00001 53 163 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 0 57 187 Total, All Scenarios 0.00042 0.00216 0.00005 171 530

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 3

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1

Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 2 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 3 4 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 3 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1 2 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 1 3 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 2 4 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00005 0.00002 0.00000 4 9

Total, All Scenarios 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 4 Total, All Scenarios 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 3 7 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 0 715 Total, All Scenarios 0.00008 0.00004 0.00000 12 26

0.00016 0.00074 0.00002 63 184 0 0 0 56 170 0 0 064 202 0.00049 0.00221 0.00005 183 556

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 1.0 5.7 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 1.3 7.8 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00005 0.00000 2 13

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 1.1 6.3 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 1.5 9.0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00006 0.00000 3 15

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0.5 1.4 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0.7 2.0 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 1 3

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 3.0 8.4 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00005 0.00000 4.3 12.3 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00009 0.00000 7 21

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 2.0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0.0 2.3 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 4

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00012 0.00000 11.9 29.6 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00012 0.00000 11.2 28.0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00008 0.00024 0.00000 23 58

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00005 0.00022 0.00000 17.4 53.4 Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00025 0.00001 19.1 61.5 Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00047 0.00001 36 115

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.0 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.3 0.4 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.6 0.8 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.1 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 0.5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0.4 0.9 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.3 0.7 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1 2

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0.8 1.6 Total, All Scenarios 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1.1 2.4 Total, All Scenarios 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 4

0.00005 0.00022 0.00000 18.2 54.9 0.00005 0.00026 0.00001 20.2 63.9 0.00010 0.00048 0.00001 38 119

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00006 0.00000 3 16 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00010 0.00000 4 25 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00012 0.00000 5 31 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00028 0.00001 12 72

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 3 19 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00010 0.00000 4 25 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00014 0.00001 6 36 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00032 0.00001 14 80

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 1

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 1 4 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 2 6 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 3 8 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 6 18

Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00011 0.00000 9 25 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00015 0.00000 12 34 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 17 49 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00047 0.00001 38 108

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 6 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0 8 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 0 11 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0.00001 0 25

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00014 0.00046 0.00001 44 110 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00018 0.00049 0.00001 48 119 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00016 0.00046 0.00001 45 112 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00048 0.00141 0.00002 137 341

Total, All Scenarios 0.00015 0.00074 0.00002 61 180 Total, All Scenarios 0.00018 0.00088 0.00002 70 216 Total, All Scenarios 0.00017 0.00102 0.00002 76 249 Total, All Scenarios 0.00051 0.00263 0.00006 207 645

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 2 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 3

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 2

Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 2 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 4 5 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 7 8

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 4 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 6

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1 2 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 2 3 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00006 0.00002 0.00000 4 10

Total, All Scenarios 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 4 Total, All Scenarios 0.00003 0.00001 0.00000 4 9 Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00003 0.00000 8 17 Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 14 30

bbb

Total Passenger + Freight 0.00016 0.00074 0.00002 63 184 Total Passenger + Freight 0.00022 0.00090 0.00002 74 225 Total Passenger + Freight 0.00022 0.00104 0.00003 84 266 Total Passenger + Freight 0.00059 0.00268 0.00006 221 675

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

Table R6a: All Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R6b: All Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R6c: All Year, PTC Timeout, Springfield Table R6d: All Year, PTC timeout, Whole Corridor

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

Table R5a: Summer, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R5b: Summer, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R5c: Summer, PTC Timeout, Springfield Table R5d: Summer, PTC Timeout, Whole Corridor

PTC Timeout Operating State

Table R4a: Full Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R4b: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R4c: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Springfield Table R4d: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Whole Corridor

Results Summary Page 2
Worksheet 5:

PTC Case: Timeout 20 seconds,

Latency 10 seconds.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25570 0.00977 11128 66022 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00606 0.38596 0.01465 16619 99172 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00893 0.55999 0.02120 23956 143567 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01859 1.20166 0.04563 51704 308760

Intrusion Collisions 0.01055 0.30175 0.01072 12931 75266 Intrusion Collisions 0.01496 0.40451 0.01436 17239 100781 Intrusion Collisions 0.02301 0.58063 0.02059 24762 144606 Intrusion Collisions 0.04852 1.28689 0.04568 54932 320653

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 94 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00316 0.00009 111 708 Diamond Collisions 0.00063 0.00682 0.00020 239 1531 Diamond Collisions 0.00118 0.01265 0.00038 443 2838

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06043 0.00097 4979 13937 Overspeed 0.00167 0.08199 0.00131 6639 18782 Overspeed 0.00257 0.12177 0.00195 9537 27575 Overspeed 0.00542 0.26420 0.00424 21155 60293

Broken Rail 0.00859 0.44035 0.00708 36285 101556 Broken Rail 0.01218 0.59748 0.00958 48375 136862 Broken Rail 0.01872 0.88734 0.01424 69496 200936 Broken Rail 0.03949 1.92517 0.03089 154155 439353

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05572 0.00557 0 22286 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07626 0.00763 0 30504 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11316 0.01132 0 45264 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.24514 0.02451 0 98055

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57322 1.84829 0.02743 179160 446282 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71403 1.99459 0.02966 193323 481756 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64812 1.88746 0.02802 183055 455854 Grade Crossing Collisions 1.93537 5.73034 0.08511 555538 1383892

Total, All Scenarios 0.59739 2.96492 0.06163 244577 725947 Total, All Scenarios 0.74920 3.54395 0.07729 282305 868565 Total, All Scenarios 0.70198 4.15719 0.09752 311045 1019333 Total, All Scenarios 2.04856 10.66605 0.23644 837928 2613845

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 838 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00378 0.00443 0.00044 1189 2960 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00677 0.00850 0.00085 2273 5675 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.01152 0.01419 0.00142 3798 9473

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00538 0.00168 0.00017 211 884 Intrusion Collisions 0.01175 0.00390 0.00039 490 2051 Intrusion Collisions 0.01962 0.00639 0.00064 803 3362

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495 Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00070 0.00007 270 549 Diamond Collisions 0.00359 0.00154 0.00015 596 1210 Diamond Collisions 0.00669 0.00286 0.00029 1109 2255

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 551 Overspeed 0.00246 0.00072 0.00007 1282 1569 Overspeed 0.00659 0.00217 0.00022 3661 4529 Overspeed 0.00986 0.00314 0.00031 5391 6649

Broken Rail 0.00689 0.00215 0.00021 3766 4625 Broken Rail 0.01426 0.00416 0.00042 7441 9107 Broken Rail 0.02997 0.00988 0.00099 16652 20602 Broken Rail 0.05111 0.01619 0.00162 27860 34335

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2552 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01507 0.00149 0 5975 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03703 0.00370 0 14810 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05848 0.00583 0 23338

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04675 0.01662 0.00085 3324 7548 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08940 0.02806 0.00144 5582 12697 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11436 0.04343 0.00222 8669 19680 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.25051 0.08811 0.00451 17575 39925

Total, All Scenarios 0.05938 0.02810 0.00200 8219 17038 Total, All Scenarios 0.11691 0.05481 0.00410 15975 33741 Total, All Scenarios 0.17302 0.10645 0.00852 32341 68558 Total, All Scenarios 0.34931 0.18936 0.01462 56535 119337

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65677 2.99302 0.06363 252796 742985 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86610 3.59876 0.08138 298280 902306 Total Passenger + Freight 0.87500 4.26363 0.10605 343387 1087890 Total Passenger + Freight 2.39788 10.85541 0.25106 894462 2733181

PTC Totals, All Operating States, All Year

Table R7a: totals: All Year, All Operating States, Joliet Table R7b: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Bloomington Table R7c: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Springfield Table R7d: Grand Total: All Year, All Operating States, Whole Corridor

Results Summary Page 3
Worksheet 6:

PTC Case, Timeout 120 seconds, Latency 20 seconds

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00361 0.25603 0.00978 11142 66099 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00479 0.30004 0.01138 12911 77042 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00717 0.44111 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01078 0.30625 0.01088 13123 76384 Intrusion Collisions 0.01147 0.30818 0.01094 13133 76780 Intrusion Collisions 0.01763 0.44236 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00028 0.00304 0.00009 107 682 Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00277 0.00008 97 622 Diamond Collisions 0.00057 0.00612 0

Overspeed 0.00141 0.07241 0.00116 5966 16699 Overspeed 0.00150 0.07375 0.00118 5971 16893 Overspeed 0.00231 0.10953 0

Broken Rail 0.00863 0.44245 0.00711 36458 102040 Broken Rail 0.00919 0.45066 0.00723 36488 103230 Broken Rail 0.01412 0.66929 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05953 0.00595 0 23811 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.06116 0.00612 0 24466 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.09076 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57595 1.85711 0.02756 180015 448411 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.53857 1.50445 0.02237 145817 363372 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.48885 1.42365 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.60067 2.99681 0.06255 246810 734126 Total, All Scenarios 0.56577 2.70101 0.05930 214417 662405 Total, All Scenarios 0.53066 3.18281 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00099 0.00128 0.00013 340 852 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00358 0.00422 0.00042 1130 2818 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00657 0.00830 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00254 0.00083 0.00008 104 437 Intrusion Collisions 0.00456 0.00142 0.00014 178 749 Intrusion Collisions 0.01009 0.00335 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00152 0.00065 0.00006 251 509 Diamond Collisions 0.00131 0.00055 0.00006 216 436 Diamond Collisions 0.00293 0.00123 0

Overspeed 0.00088 0.00027 0.00003 481 591 Overspeed 0.00223 0.00065 0.00007 1163 1423 Overspeed 0.00585 0.00193 0

Broken Rail 0.00691 0.00215 0.00022 3778 4640 Broken Rail 0.01184 0.00346 0.00035 6179 7563 Broken Rail 0.02540 0.00837 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00664 0.00066 0 2655 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01313 0.00131 0 5253 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03227 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04690 0.01667 0.00086 3334 7572 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07424 0.02330 0.00119 4635 10544 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09692 0.03681 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05974 0.02849 0.00204 8289 17257 Total, All Scenarios 0.09775 0.04673 0.00354 13501 28784 Total, All Scenarios 0.14775 0.09226 0

0.66040 3.02530 0.06458 255100 751383 0.66352 2.74775 0.06283 227918 691189 0.67841 3.27508 0.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00135 0.08906 0.00339 3841 22905 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00184 0.12244 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00381 0.10235 0.00363 4362 25500 Intrusion Collisions 0.00586 0.14691 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00008 0.00083 0.00002 29 185 Diamond Collisions 0.00016 0.00172 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00050 0.02449 0.00039 1983 5611 Overspeed 0.00077 0.03638 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00305 0.14967 0.00240 12118 34285 Broken Rail 0.00469 0.22228 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02031 0.00203 0 8125 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03014 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.17887 0.49965 0.00743 48428 120682 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16236 0.47282 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.18765 0.88637 0.01930 70761 217293 Total, All Scenarios 0.17567 1.03269 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00036 0.00044 0.00004 117 292 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00035 0.00044 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00090 0.00028 0.00003 35 148 Intrusion Collisions 0.00176 0.00058 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00039 0.00016 0.00002 64 130 Diamond Collisions 0.00082 0.00035 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00031 0.00009 0.00001 162 199 Overspeed 0.00083 0.00028 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00244 0.00071 0.00007 1275 1560 Broken Rail 0.00458 0.00151 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00228 0.00021 0 861 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00517 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01531 0.00481 0.00025 956 2175 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01749 0.00664 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.01972 0.00877 0.00063 2609 5364 Total, All Scenarios 0.02583 0.01496 0

0.20737 0.89514 0.01992 73370 222657 0.20149 1.04765 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00361 0.25603 0.00978 11142 66099 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00613 0.38910 0.01476 16752 99947 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00901 0.56355 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01078 0.30625 0.01088 13123 76384 Intrusion Collisions 0.01528 0.41053 0.01458 17495 102279 Intrusion Collisions 0.02349 0.58927 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00028 0.00304 0.00009 107 682 Diamond Collisions 0.00033 0.00360 0.00011 126 808 Diamond Collisions 0.00073 0.00784 0

Overspeed 0.00141 0.07241 0.00116 5966 16699 Overspeed 0.00200 0.09824 0.00158 7954 22504 Overspeed 0.00308 0.14590 0

Broken Rail 0.00863 0.44245 0.00711 36458 102040 Broken Rail 0.01224 0.60033 0.00963 48606 137515 Broken Rail 0.01881 0.89157 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05953 0.00595 0 23811 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08148 0.00815 0 32591 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.12090 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57595 1.85711 0.02756 180015 448411 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71743 2.00410 0.02980 194245 484054 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.65121 1.89647 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.60067 2.99681 0.06255 246810 734126 Total, All Scenarios 0.75342 3.58738 0.07859 285178 879697 Total, All Scenarios 0.70633 4.21550 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00099 0.00128 0.00013 340 852 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00394 0.00466 0.00047 1246 3109 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00692 0.00874 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00254 0.00083 0.00008 104 437 Intrusion Collisions 0.00546 0.00170 0.00017 214 896 Intrusion Collisions 0.01184 0.00393 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00152 0.00065 0.00006 251 509 Diamond Collisions 0.00170 0.00071 0.00007 280 565 Diamond Collisions 0.00375 0.00158 0

Overspeed 0.00088 0.00027 0.00003 481 591 Overspeed 0.00254 0.00074 0.00007 1325 1621 Overspeed 0.00669 0.00220 0

Broken Rail 0.00691 0.00215 0.00022 3778 4640 Broken Rail 0.01428 0.00417 0.00042 7454 9123 Broken Rail 0.02998 0.00988 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00664 0.00066 0 2655 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01541 0.00152 0 6114 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03744 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04690 0.01667 0.00086 3334 7572 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08955 0.02810 0.00144 5591 12719 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11440 0.04345 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05974 0.02849 0.00204 8289 17257 Total, All Scenarios 0.11747 0.05551 0.00416 16110 34148 Total, All Scenarios 0.17358 0.10722 0

0.66040 3.02530 0.06458 255100 751383 0.87089 3.64289 0.08276 301288 913845 0.87991 4.32272 0.

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Results Summary: PTC Case, Timeout 120 Seconds, Latency 20 seconds.

PTC Normal Operating State

Table R1a: Full Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Sprin

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R2b: Summer, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, PTC Normal, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R3a: All Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, PTC Normal, Springf

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
Worksheet 6:

PTC Case, Timeout 120 seconds, Latency 20 seconds

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16 98 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00045 0.00002 19 116 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00054 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 125 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00072 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 51 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18 52 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00034 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00069 0.00001 56 157 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00102 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 0 50 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00019 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00082 0.00229 0.00003 222 553 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00074 0.00217 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00473 0.00010 386 1162 Total, All Scenarios 0.00087 0.00429 0.00010 337 1055 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 2 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 9 11 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0 9 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00005 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00011 0.00003 0.00000 7 16 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00014 0.00005 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28 Total, All Scenarios 0.00015 0.00007 0.00001 21 45 Total, All Scenarios bbbb 0.00014 0

0.00101 0.00478 0.00010 399 1190 0.00101 0.00436 0.00010 358 1100 0.00104 0.00512 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 5.7 34.0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00018 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00017 0.00001 7.1 41.4 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.4 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 6.1 17.2 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00011 0Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18.5 52.2 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00034 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 0.0 16.8 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00027 0.00076 0.00001 73.7 183.8 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00025 0.00072 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00029 0.00141 0.00003 111.1 345.8 Total, All Scenarios 0.00027 0.00166 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.3 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.3 0.4 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.9 2.4 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 1.0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 2.3 5.2 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0.00000 4.9 10.0 Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0

0.00033 0.00142 0.00003 116.1 355.7 0.00031 0.00168 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16 98 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00058 0.00002 25 150 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00072 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00067 0.00002 28 166 Intrusion Collisions 0.00004 0.00096 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00002 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 51 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00030 0.00000 24 69 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00045 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00091 0.00001 74 209 Broken Rail 0.00003 0.00136 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00017 0.00002 0 67 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00025 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00109 0.00305 0.00005 296 737 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00099 0.00289 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00473 0.00010 386 1162 Total, All Scenarios 0.00115 0.00569 0.00013 448 1400 Total, All Scenarios 0.00108 0.00664 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 3 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 11 14 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 0 10 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00015 0.00005 0.00000 9 21 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00017 0.00006 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28 Total, All Scenarios 0.00019 0.00009 0.00001 26 55 Total, All Scenarios 0.00026 0.00016 0

bbb

0.00101 0.00478 0.00010 399 1190 0.00135 0.00579 0.00013 474 1456 0.00134 0.00680 0

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

PTC Timeout Operating State

Table R4a: Full Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R4b: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R4c: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Spri

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R5a: Summer, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R5b: Summer, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R5c: Summer, PTC Timeout, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R6a: All Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R6b: All Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R6c: All Year, PTC Timeout, Spring

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
Worksheet 6:

PTC Case, Timeout 120 seconds, Latency 20 seconds

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00362 0.25641 0.00980 11159 66197 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00614 0.38968 0.01478 16777 100097 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00902 0.56427 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01079 0.30674 0.01090 13144 76508 Intrusion Collisions 0.01530 0.41119 0.01460 17523 102445 Intrusion Collisions 0.02353 0.59023 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00028 0.00305 0.00009 107 684 Diamond Collisions 0.00034 0.00361 0.00011 126 810 Diamond Collisions 0.00073 0.00786 0

Overspeed 0.00142 0.07263 0.00117 5984 16750 Overspeed 0.00201 0.09854 0.00158 7979 22573 Overspeed 0.00309 0.14635 0Broken Rail 0.00864 0.44313 0.00712 36513 102195 Broken Rail 0.01225 0.60124 0.00964 48680 137724 Broken Rail 0.01884 0.89293 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05965 0.00597 0 23860 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08165 0.00816 0 32658 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.12115 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57683 1.85993 0.02760 180289 449094 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71853 2.00715 0.02984 194541 484791 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.65220 1.89935 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.60159 3.00154 0.06265 247196 735288 Total, All Scenarios 0.75457 3.59307 0.07872 285626 881098 Total, All Scenarios 0.70741 4.22214 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00099 0.00128 0.00013 341 853 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00395 0.00467 0.00047 1248 3115 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00693 0.00875 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00254 0.00083 0.00008 104 438 Intrusion Collisions 0.00547 0.00170 0.00017 214 898 Intrusion Collisions 0.01186 0.00394 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00152 0.00065 0.00006 252 510 Diamond Collisions 0.00170 0.00072 0.00007 280 566 Diamond Collisions 0.00375 0.00158 0

Overspeed 0.00088 0.00027 0.00003 482 592 Overspeed 0.00254 0.00074 0.00007 1327 1624 Overspeed 0.00670 0.00221 0

Broken Rail 0.00692 0.00216 0.00022 3784 4647 Broken Rail 0.01430 0.00418 0.00042 7465 9136 Broken Rail 0.03002 0.00989 0Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00665 0.00067 0 2660 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01544 0.00153 0 6123 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03750 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04697 0.01670 0.00086 3339 7583 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08970 0.02815 0.00144 5601 12740 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11457 0.04351 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05983 0.02854 0.00204 8302 17284 Total, All Scenarios 0.11766 0.05560 0.00417 16136 34203 Total, All Scenarios 0.17384 0.10738 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.66142 3.03007 0.06469 255498 752572 Total Passenger + Freight 0.87223 3.64867 0.08289 301762 915301 Total Passenger + Freight 0.88125 4.32953 0.

PTC Totals, All Operating States, All Year

Table R7a: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Joliet Table R7b: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Bloomington Table R7c: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, 

Results Summary 
Worksheet 7:

PTC Case, Timeout 120 seconds,Latency 5 seconds.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00359 0.25491 0.00975 11094 65821 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00467 0.29477 0.01119 12688 75732 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00702 0.43430 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01042 0.29871 0.01061 12801 74508 Intrusion Collisions 0.01109 0.30060 0.01067 12811 74893 Intrusion Collisions 0.01704 0.43148 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00023 0.00248 0.00007 87 556 Diamond Collisions 0.00021 0.00225 0.00007 79 506 Diamond Collisions 0.00046 0.00492 0

Overspeed 0.00106 0.05430 0.00087 4475 12524 Overspeed 0.00113 0.05531 0.00089 4478 12670 Overspeed 0.00173 0.08215 0

Broken Rail 0.00855 0.43833 0.00705 36118 101089 Broken Rail 0.00910 0.44646 0.00716 36148 102268 Broken Rail 0.01399 0.66306 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05563 0.00556 0 22253 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05716 0.00572 0 22865 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08482 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57059 1.83980 0.02731 178338 444233 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.53355 1.49043 0.02216 144458 359987 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.48430 1.41038 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59443 2.94418 0.06122 242912 720985 Total, All Scenarios 0.55974 2.64699 0.05785 210662 648921 Total, All Scenarios 0.52454 3.11111 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00096 0.00124 0.00012 331 828 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00334 0.00387 0.00039 1044 2593 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00632 0.00792 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00245 0.00080 0.00008 100 421 Intrusion Collisions 0.00446 0.00139 0.00014 175 733 Intrusion Collisions 0.00997 0.00331 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00143 0.00062 0.00006 239 487 Diamond Collisions 0.00123 0.00053 0.00005 204 415 Diamond Collisions 0.00274 0.00118 0

Overspeed 0.00079 0.00025 0.00002 431 529 Overspeed 0.00213 0.00062 0.00006 1112 1361 Overspeed 0.00573 0.00189 0

Broken Rail 0.00686 0.00214 0.00021 3752 4608 Broken Rail 0.01179 0.00344 0.00034 6153 7530 Broken Rail 0.02533 0.00835 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00637 0.00064 0 2549 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01286 0.00129 0 5142 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03192 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04658 0.01656 0.00085 3311 7520 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07392 0.02320 0.00119 4615 10498 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09668 0.03672 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05907 0.02798 0.00199 8165 16943 Total, All Scenarios 0.09686 0.04591 0.00346 13302 28272 Total, All Scenarios 0.14677 0.09128 0

0.65350 2.97215 0.06321 251077 737927 0.65660 2.69290 0.06131 223963 677193 0.67131 3.20239 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00133 0.08837 0.00336 3811 22734 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00183 0.12191 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00368 0.09983 0.00355 4255 24873 Intrusion Collisions 0.00566 0.14330 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00006 0.00067 0.00002 24 151 Diamond Collisions 0.00013 0.00138 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00037 0.01837 0.00029 1487 4208 Overspeed 0.00058 0.02728 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00302 0.14828 0.00238 12005 33965 Broken Rail 0.00465 0.22021 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01898 0.00190 0 7594 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02817 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.17720 0.49500 0.00736 47977 119558 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16084 0.46841 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.18567 0.86950 0.01886 69559 213083 Total, All Scenarios 0.17368 1.01067 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00035 0.00042 0.00004 111 278 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00033 0.00042 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00087 0.00027 0.00003 34 142 Intrusion Collisions 0.00172 0.00057 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00037 0.00016 0.00002 61 124 Diamond Collisions 0.00077 0.00033 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00028 0.00008 0.00001 145 178 Overspeed 0.00079 0.00026 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00243 0.00071 0.00007 1266 1549 Broken Rail 0.00456 0.00150 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00219 0.00020 0 824 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00505 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01521 0.00477 0.00024 950 2160 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01741 0.00661 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.01949 0.00860 0.00061 2567 5255 Total, All Scenarios 0.02558 0.01475 0

0.20517 0.87810 0.01947 72126 218338 0.19926 1.02541 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00359 0.25491 0.00975 11094 65821 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00600 0.38314 0.01455 16499 98466 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00885 0.55621 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01042 0.29871 0.01061 12801 74508 Intrusion Collisions 0.01477 0.40043 0.01422 17065 99766 Intrusion Collisions 0.02270 0.57478 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00023 0.00248 0.00007 87 556 Diamond Collisions 0.00027 0.00293 0.00009 102 656 Diamond Collisions 0.00059 0.00630 0

Overspeed 0.00106 0.05430 0.00087 4475 12524 Overspeed 0.00150 0.07368 0.00118 5966 16878 Overspeed 0.00231 0.10943 0

Broken Rail 0.00855 0.43833 0.00705 36118 101089 Broken Rail 0.01212 0.59474 0.00954 48153 136234 Broken Rail 0.01864 0.88327 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05563 0.00556 0 22253 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07615 0.00761 0 30459 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11299 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57059 1.83980 0.02731 178338 444233 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71075 1.98543 0.02952 192436 479544 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64514 1.87880 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59443 2.94418 0.06122 242912 720985 Total, All Scenarios 0.74542 3.51649 0.07671 280221 862003 Total, All Scenarios 0.69822 4.12177 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00096 0.00124 0.00012 331 828 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00369 0.00429 0.00043 1155 2870 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00665 0.00834 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00245 0.00080 0.00008 100 421 Intrusion Collisions 0.00533 0.00166 0.00017 209 875 Intrusion Collisions 0.01168 0.00388 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00143 0.00062 0.00006 239 487 Diamond Collisions 0.00159 0.00069 0.00007 265 539 Diamond Collisions 0.00351 0.00151 0

Overspeed 0.00079 0.00025 0.00002 431 529 Overspeed 0.00241 0.00070 0.00007 1257 1539 Overspeed 0.00652 0.00215 0

Broken Rail 0.00686 0.00214 0.00021 3752 4608 Broken Rail 0.01421 0.00415 0.00042 7419 9080 Broken Rail 0.02989 0.00985 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00637 0.00064 0 2549 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01505 0.00149 0 5967 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03697 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04658 0.01656 0.00085 3311 7520 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08913 0.02797 0.00143 5565 12658 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11408 0.04333 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05907 0.02798 0.00199 8165 16943 Total, All Scenarios 0.11635 0.05451 0.00407 15869 33528 Total, All Scenarios 0.17235 0.10603 0

0.65350 2.97215 0.06321 251077 737927 0.86177 3.57100 0.08078 296090 895531 0.87057 4.22780 0.

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Results Summary: PTC Case, Timeout 120 seconds, Latency 5 seconds.

PTC Normal Operating State

Table R1a: Full Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Sprin

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R2b: Summer, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, PTC Normal, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R3a: All Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, PTC Normal, Springf

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculationThere are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
Worksheet 7:

PTC Case, Timeout 120 seconds,Latency 5 seconds.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16 98 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00045 0.00002 19 116 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00054 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 125 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00072 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 51 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18 52 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00034 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00069 0.00001 56 157 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00102 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 0 50 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00019 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00082 0.00229 0.00003 222 553 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00074 0.00217 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00473 0.00010 386 1162 Total, All Scenarios 0.00087 0.00429 0.00010 337 1055 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 2 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 9 11 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0 9 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00005 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00011 0.00003 0.00000 7 16 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00014 0.00005 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28 Total, All Scenarios 0.00015 0.00007 0.00001 21 45 Total, All Scenarios 0.00022 0.00014 0

0.00101 0.00478 0.00010 399 1190 0.00101 0.00436 0.00010 358 1100 0.00104 0.00512 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 5.7 34.0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00018 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00017 0.00001 7.1 41.4 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.4 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 6.1 17.2 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00011 0Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18.5 52.2 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00034 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 0.0 16.8 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00027 0.00076 0.00001 73.7 183.8 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00025 0.00072 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00029 0.00141 0.00003 111.1 345.8 Total, All Scenarios 0.00027 0.00166 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.3 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.3 0.4 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.9 2.4 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 1.0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 2.3 5.2 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0.00000 4.9 10.0 Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0

0.00033 0.00142 0.00003 116.1 355.7 0.00031 0.00168 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16 98 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00058 0.00002 25 150 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00072 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00067 0.00002 28 166 Intrusion Collisions 0.00004 0.00096 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00002 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 51 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00030 0.00000 24 69 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00045 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00091 0.00001 74 209 Broken Rail 0.00003 0.00136 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00017 0.00002 0 67 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00025 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00109 0.00305 0.00005 296 737 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00099 0.00289 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00473 0.00010 386 1162 Total, All Scenarios 0.00115 0.00569 0.00013 448 1400 Total, All Scenarios 0.00108 0.00664 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 3 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 11 14 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 0 10 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00015 0.00005 0.00000 9 21 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00017 0.00006 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28 Total, All Scenarios 0.00019 0.00009 0.00001 26 55 Total, All Scenarios 0.00026 0.00016 0

bbb

0.00101 0.00478 0.00010 399 1190 0.00135 0.00579 0.00013 474 1456 0.00134 0.00680 0

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

PTC Timeout Operating State

Table R4a: Full Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R4b: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R4c: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Spri

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R5a: Summer, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R5b: Summer, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R5c: Summer, PTC Timeout, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R6a: All Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R6b: All Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R6c: All Year, PTC Timeout, Spring

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculationThere are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
Worksheet 7:

PTC Case, Timeout 120 seconds,Latency 5 seconds.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00359 0.25529 0.00976 11111 65919 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00601 0.38372 0.01457 16524 98616 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00886 0.55693 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01043 0.29921 0.01063 12822 74631 Intrusion Collisions 0.01479 0.40110 0.01424 17094 99932 Intrusion Collisions 0.02274 0.57574 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00023 0.00249 0.00007 87 558 Diamond Collisions 0.00027 0.00293 0.00009 103 658 Diamond Collisions 0.00059 0.00632 0

Overspeed 0.00106 0.05453 0.00088 4493 12575 Overspeed 0.00151 0.07398 0.00119 5990 16947 Overspeed 0.00232 0.10988 0

Broken Rail 0.00856 0.43900 0.00706 36173 101245 Broken Rail 0.01214 0.59565 0.00955 48227 136443 Broken Rail 0.01866 0.88463 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05576 0.00558 0 22302 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07632 0.00763 0 30526 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11324 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57147 1.84263 0.02735 178612 444916 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71184 1.98848 0.02957 192731 480281 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64613 1.88168 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59535 2.94891 0.06132 243298 722147 Total, All Scenarios 0.74657 3.52218 0.07684 280669 863404 Total, All Scenarios 0.69931 4.12841 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00124 0.00012 332 829 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00369 0.00430 0.00043 1157 2876 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00666 0.00835 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00245 0.00080 0.00008 101 422 Intrusion Collisions 0.00534 0.00166 0.00017 209 877 Intrusion Collisions 0.01170 0.00388 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00144 0.00062 0.00006 239 488 Diamond Collisions 0.00160 0.00069 0.00007 265 540 Diamond Collisions 0.00352 0.00152 0

Overspeed 0.00079 0.00025 0.00002 432 531 Overspeed 0.00241 0.00070 0.00007 1259 1541 Overspeed 0.00654 0.00215 0

Broken Rail 0.00687 0.00214 0.00021 3758 4615 Broken Rail 0.01423 0.00416 0.00042 7430 9093 Broken Rail 0.02994 0.00987 0Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2554 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01507 0.00149 0 5976 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03703 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04665 0.01658 0.00085 3316 7531 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08927 0.02802 0.00143 5574 12679 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11425 0.04339 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05916 0.02802 0.00200 8178 16970 Total, All Scenarios 0.11655 0.05460 0.00408 15894 33583 Total, All Scenarios 0.17261 0.10619 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65451 2.97693 0.06332 251476 739117 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86312 3.57679 0.08091 296563 896987 Total Passenger + Freight 0.87191 4.23461 0.

PTC Totals, All Operating States, All Year

Table R7a: totals: All Year, All Operating States, Joliet Table R7b: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Bloomington Table R7c: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, 

Results Summary 
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00422 0.30114 0.01151 13109 77766 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00539 0.34204 0.01298 14729 87882 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00806 0.50173 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01059 0.30235 0.01074 12956 75413 Intrusion Collisions 0.01127 0.30426 0.01080 12966 75804 Intrusion Collisions 0.01733 0.43673 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00283 0.00008 99 635 Diamond Collisions 0.00024 0.00257 0.00008 90 576 Diamond Collisions 0.00052 0.00563 0

Overspeed 0.00129 0.06637 0.00107 5469 15307 Overspeed 0.00138 0.06760 0.00108 5474 15486 Overspeed 0.00212 0.10040 0

Broken Rail 0.00859 0.44016 0.00708 36269 101512 Broken Rail 0.00914 0.44833 0.00719 36299 102696 Broken Rail 0.01405 0.66583 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05675 0.00567 0 22698 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05831 0.00583 0 23322 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08652 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57297 1.84749 0.02742 179083 446090 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.53578 1.49666 0.02225 145062 361491 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.48632 1.41628 0Total, All Scenarios 0.59793 3.01709 0.06358 246985 739422 Total, All Scenarios 0.56320 2.71976 0.06022 214619 667256 Total, All Scenarios 0.52840 3.21312 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00107 0.00136 0.00014 365 908 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00358 0.00415 0.00042 1119 2780 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00660 0.00825 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00249 0.00082 0.00008 102 429 Intrusion Collisions 0.00451 0.00141 0.00014 177 741 Intrusion Collisions 0.01003 0.00333 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00065 0.00006 248 506 Diamond Collisions 0.00128 0.00055 0.00005 212 432 Diamond Collisions 0.00285 0.00123 0

Overspeed 0.00085 0.00026 0.00003 465 570 Overspeed 0.00219 0.00064 0.00006 1146 1402 Overspeed 0.00581 0.00191 0

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00215 0.00021 3764 4622 Broken Rail 0.01181 0.00345 0.00035 6165 7545 Broken Rail 0.02536 0.00836 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00645 0.00064 0 2579 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01293 0.00129 0 5174 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03202 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04672 0.01661 0.00085 3321 7543 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07406 0.02324 0.00119 4624 10518 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09678 0.03676 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05950 0.02828 0.00202 8264 17158 Total, All Scenarios 0.09743 0.04638 0.00350 13442 28592 Total, All Scenarios 0.14743 0.09186 0

0.65743 3.04538 0.06560 255249 756580 0.66062 2.76613 0.06372 228061 695848 0.67583 3.30498 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00157 0.10452 0.00398 4509 26890 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00216 0.14478 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00374 0.10105 0.00359 4306 25176 Intrusion Collisions 0.00576 0.14505 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00007 0.00076 0.00002 27 172 Diamond Collisions 0.00015 0.00158 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00046 0.02245 0.00036 1818 5143 Overspeed 0.00070 0.03334 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00303 0.14890 0.00239 12055 34107 Broken Rail 0.00467 0.22113 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01936 0.00194 0 7746 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02873 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.17794 0.49707 0.00739 48178 120057 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16152 0.47037 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.18682 0.89411 0.01966 70893 219291 Total, All Scenarios 0.17495 1.04498 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00039 0.00046 0.00005 124 308 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00037 0.00046 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00088 0.00027 0.00003 35 145 Intrusion Collisions 0.00174 0.00058 0Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00016 0.00002 63 129 Diamond Collisions 0.00080 0.00034 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00030 0.00009 0.00001 157 192 Overspeed 0.00082 0.00027 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00243 0.00071 0.00007 1270 1554 Broken Rail 0.00457 0.00151 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00222 0.00020 0 835 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00508 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01526 0.00479 0.00025 953 2167 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01744 0.00662 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.01964 0.00870 0.00062 2601 5329 Total, All Scenarios 0.02574 0.01487 0

0.20646 0.90281 0.02028 73494 224619 0.20069 1.05985 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00422 0.30114 0.01151 13109 77766 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00696 0.44656 0.01696 19238 114772 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01022 0.64651 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01059 0.30235 0.01074 12956 75413 Intrusion Collisions 0.01502 0.40530 0.01439 17273 100980 Intrusion Collisions 0.02309 0.58177 0Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00283 0.00008 99 635 Diamond Collisions 0.00031 0.00333 0.00010 117 747 Diamond Collisions 0.00067 0.00721 0

Overspeed 0.00129 0.06637 0.00107 5469 15307 Overspeed 0.00184 0.09006 0.00144 7291 20629 Overspeed 0.00282 0.13375 0

Broken Rail 0.00859 0.44016 0.00708 36269 101512 Broken Rail 0.01217 0.59722 0.00958 48354 136803 Broken Rail 0.01871 0.88696 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05675 0.00567 0 22698 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07767 0.00777 0 31068 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11525 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57297 1.84749 0.02742 179083 446090 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71372 1.99373 0.02965 193240 481548 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64784 1.88665 0Total, All Scenarios 0.59793 3.01709 0.06358 246985 739422 Total, All Scenarios 0.75002 3.61387 0.07988 285512 886547 Total, All Scenarios 0.70335 4.25810 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00107 0.00136 0.00014 365 908 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00397 0.00461 0.00046 1243 3088 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00697 0.00871 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00249 0.00082 0.00008 102 429 Intrusion Collisions 0.00539 0.00168 0.00017 211 886 Intrusion Collisions 0.01176 0.00390 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00065 0.00006 248 506 Diamond Collisions 0.00166 0.00071 0.00007 275 560 Diamond Collisions 0.00365 0.00157 0

Overspeed 0.00085 0.00026 0.00003 465 570 Overspeed 0.00249 0.00073 0.00007 1302 1594 Overspeed 0.00663 0.00219 0

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00215 0.00021 3764 4622 Broken Rail 0.01424 0.00416 0.00042 7434 9099 Broken Rail 0.02993 0.00986 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00645 0.00064 0 2579 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01515 0.00150 0 6009 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03711 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04672 0.01661 0.00085 3321 7543 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08931 0.02803 0.00144 5577 12685 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11422 0.04338 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05950 0.02828 0.00202 8264 17158 Total, All Scenarios 0.11707 0.05508 0.00412 16043 33921 Total, All Scenarios 0.17317 0.10673 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65743 3.04538 0.06560 255249 756580 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86709 3.66895 0.08401 301555 920468 Total Passenger + Freight 0.87652 4.36483 0Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R3a: All Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, PTC Normal, Springf

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R2b: Summer, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, PTC Normal, Spring

Results Summary: PTC Case, Low preventability - 88%, Timeout 120 seconds, Latency 10 sec

PTC Normal Operating State

Table R1a: Full Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Sprin
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00045 0.00002 19 115 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00052 0.00002 22 133 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00061 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 125 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00072 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 19 52 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 19 53 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00034 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00069 0.00001 56 157 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00102 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 0 51 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00019 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00082 0.00229 0.00003 222 553 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00074 0.00217 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00480 0.00010 389 1181 Total, All Scenarios 0.00087 0.00436 0.00010 340 1073 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 3 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 9 11 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0 9 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00005 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00011 0.00003 0.00000 7 16 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00014 0.00005 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28 Total, All Scenarios 0.00015 0.00007 0.00001 21 45 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 

0.00101 0.00485 0.00011 402 1209 0 0 0 361 1119 0 0 

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00016 0.00001 6.7 40.0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00021 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00017 0.00001 7.1 41.4 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.5 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 6.2 17.5 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00011 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18.5 52.2 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00034 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 0.0 16.9 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00027 0.00076 0.00001 73.7 183.8 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00025 0.00072 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00029 0.00143 0.00003 112.3 352.2 Total, All Scenarios 0.00027 0.00169 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.3 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.4 0.4 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.9 2.4 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 1.0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 2.3 5.2 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0.00000 5.0 10.0 Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0

0.00033 0.00145 0.00003 117.2 362.2 0.00031 0.00172 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00045 0.00002 19 115 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00067 0.00003 29 173 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00083 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00067 0.00002 28 166 Intrusion Collisions 0.00004 0.00096 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00002 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 19 52 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00031 0.00000 25 70 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00046 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00091 0.00001 74 209 Broken Rail 0.00003 0.00136 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00017 0.00002 0 68 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00025 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00109 0.00305 0.00005 296 737 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00099 0.00289 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00480 0.00010 389 1181 Total, All Scenarios 0.00115 0.00579 0.00013 452 1425 Total, All Scenarios 0.00108 0.00675 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 6 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 3 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 11 14 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 0 10 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00015 0.00005 0.00000 9 21 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00017 0.00006 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28 Total, All Scenarios 0.00019 0.00009 0.00001 26 55 Total, All Scenarios 0.00026 0.00017 0

bbb

Total Passenger + Freight 0.00101 0.00485 0.00011 402 1209 Total Passenger + Freight 0.00135 0.00588 0.00014 478 1481 Total Passenger + Freight 0.00135 0.00692 0Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R6a: All Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R6b: All Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R6c: All Year, PTC Timeout, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R5a: Summer, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R5b: Summer, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R5c: Summer, PTC Timeout, Spring

PTC Timeout Operating State

Table R4a: Full Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R4b: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R4c: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Spri
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00422 0.30159 0.01153 13128 77881 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00697 0.44723 0.01699 19267 114945 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01023 0.64734 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01061 0.30285 0.01076 12977 75537 Intrusion Collisions 0.01504 0.40597 0.01442 17301 101145 Intrusion Collisions 0.02313 0.58273 0Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00284 0.00008 100 637 Diamond Collisions 0.00031 0.00334 0.00010 117 749 Diamond Collisions 0.00067 0.00722 0

Overspeed 0.00130 0.06660 0.00107 5488 15359 Overspeed 0.00184 0.09036 0.00145 7316 20699 Overspeed 0.00283 0.13420 0

Broken Rail 0.00860 0.44084 0.00709 36324 101667 Broken Rail 0.01219 0.59814 0.00959 48428 137012 Broken Rail 0.01874 0.88832 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05687 0.00569 0 22748 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07784 0.00778 0 31136 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11551 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57385 1.85032 0.02746 179357 446773 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71481 1.99678 0.02969 193536 482286 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64883 1.88954 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59885 3.02190 0.06368 247375 740603 Total, All Scenarios 0.75117 3.61966 0.08001 285965 887973 Total, All Scenarios 0.70444 4.26486 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00107 0.00136 0.00014 365 909 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00398 0.00462 0.00046 1245 3094 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00698 0.00873 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00250 0.00082 0.00008 103 430 Intrusion Collisions 0.00540 0.00168 0.00017 211 887 Intrusion Collisions 0.01178 0.00391 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00065 0.00006 248 507 Diamond Collisions 0.00166 0.00071 0.00007 276 561 Diamond Collisions 0.00366 0.00158 0

Overspeed 0.00085 0.00027 0.00003 466 572 Overspeed 0.00250 0.00073 0.00007 1305 1597 Overspeed 0.00664 0.00219 0

Broken Rail 0.00689 0.00215 0.00021 3769 4629 Broken Rail 0.01426 0.00417 0.00042 7446 9112 Broken Rail 0.02998 0.00988 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00646 0.00065 0 2584 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01518 0.00150 0 6018 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03717 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04679 0.01663 0.00085 3326 7554 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08946 0.02808 0.00144 5586 12706 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11439 0.04345 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05960 0.02833 0.00203 8277 17186 Total, All Scenarios 0.11726 0.05517 0.00413 16069 33976 Total, All Scenarios 0.17343 0.10689 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65844 3.05023 0.06570 255652 757789 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86843 3.67483 0.08414 302033 921949 Total Passenger + Freight 0.87787 4.37175 0

PTC Totals, All Operating States, All Year

Table R7a: totals: All Year, All Operating States, Joliet Table R7b: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Bloomington Table R7c: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, 
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00235 0.16370 0.00625 7119 42241 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00336 0.20622 0.00781 8859 52917 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00514 0.30773 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01043 0.29923 0.01063 12823 74637 Intrusion Collisions 0.01110 0.30112 0.01069 12833 75023 Intrusion Collisions 0.01707 0.43223 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00022 0.00233 0.00007 82 524 Diamond Collisions 0.00020 0.00215 0.00006 75 482 Diamond Collisions 0.00044 0.00471 0

Overspeed 0.00100 0.05129 0.00082 4226 11828 Overspeed 0.00106 0.05224 0.00084 4230 11966 Overspeed 0.00164 0.07758 0

Broken Rail 0.00856 0.43879 0.00705 36156 101195 Broken Rail 0.00911 0.44693 0.00717 36185 102375 Broken Rail 0.01400 0.66375 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05341 0.00534 0 21363 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05488 0.00549 0 21951 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08143 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57118 1.84173 0.02733 178524 444698 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.53411 1.49199 0.02218 144609 360363 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.48481 1.41186 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59375 2.85048 0.05750 238930 696486 Total, All Scenarios 0.55895 2.55552 0.05424 206792 625077 Total, All Scenarios 0.52309 2.97928 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00078 0.00105 0.00011 275 695 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00312 0.00368 0.00037 984 2457 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00605 0.00769 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00245 0.00080 0.00008 101 422 Intrusion Collisions 0.00446 0.00139 0.00014 175 733 Intrusion Collisions 0.00997 0.00331 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00141 0.00060 0.00006 233 472 Diamond Collisions 0.00121 0.00051 0.00005 200 403 Diamond Collisions 0.00271 0.00114 0

Overspeed 0.00077 0.00024 0.00002 423 519 Overspeed 0.00211 0.00062 0.00006 1103 1350 Overspeed 0.00571 0.00188 0

Broken Rail 0.00687 0.00214 0.00021 3755 4611 Broken Rail 0.01179 0.00345 0.00034 6156 7534 Broken Rail 0.02534 0.00835 0Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00622 0.00062 0 2488 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01270 0.00127 0 5079 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03172 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04661 0.01657 0.00085 3314 7526 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07395 0.02321 0.00119 4617 10503 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09670 0.03673 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05889 0.02762 0.00196 8100 16733 Total, All Scenarios 0.09665 0.04555 0.00342 13234 28060 Total, All Scenarios 0.14648 0.09081 0

0.65264 2.87810 0.05946 247029 713219 0.65559 2.60107 0.05767 220026 653137 0.66957 3.07010 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00087 0.05685 0.00216 2449 14615 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00117 0.07682 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00369 0.10001 0.00355 4262 24917 Intrusion Collisions 0.00567 0.14355 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00006 0.00064 0.00002 22 144 Diamond Collisions 0.00012 0.00132 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00035 0.01735 0.00028 1405 3974 Overspeed 0.00054 0.02577 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00303 0.14843 0.00238 12018 34001 Broken Rail 0.00465 0.22044 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01823 0.00182 0 7290 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02704 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.17739 0.49551 0.00737 48027 119682 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16101 0.46890 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.18538 0.83702 0.01758 68184 204623 Total, All Scenarios 0.17317 0.96384 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00028 0.00035 0.00004 92 233 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00027 0.00036 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00087 0.00027 0.00003 34 142 Intrusion Collisions 0.00172 0.00057 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00036 0.00015 0.00002 59 120 Diamond Collisions 0.00076 0.00032 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00027 0.00008 0.00001 143 175 Overspeed 0.00079 0.00026 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00243 0.00071 0.00007 1267 1551 Broken Rail 0.00456 0.00150 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00214 0.00020 0 803 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00498 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01522 0.00478 0.00024 950 2162 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01741 0.00661 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.01943 0.00848 0.00060 2546 5186 Total, All Scenarios 0.02551 0.01461 0

0.20482 0.84550 0.01818 70729 209809 0.19868 0.97845 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00235 0.16370 0.00625 7119 42241 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00424 0.26306 0.00997 11308 67532 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00630 0.38454 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01043 0.29923 0.01063 12823 74637 Intrusion Collisions 0.01479 0.40113 0.01424 17095 99940 Intrusion Collisions 0.02274 0.57578 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00022 0.00233 0.00007 82 524 Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00279 0.00008 98 626 Diamond Collisions 0.00056 0.00603 0

Overspeed 0.00100 0.05129 0.00082 4226 11828 Overspeed 0.00142 0.06959 0.00112 5634 15940 Overspeed 0.00218 0.10335 0

Broken Rail 0.00856 0.43879 0.00705 36156 101195 Broken Rail 0.01213 0.59536 0.00955 48203 136376 Broken Rail 0.01866 0.88419 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05341 0.00534 0 21363 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07310 0.00731 0 29241 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.10847 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57118 1.84173 0.02733 178524 444698 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71149 1.98750 0.02955 192637 480045 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64582 1.88076 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59375 2.85048 0.05750 238930 696486 Total, All Scenarios 0.74433 3.39253 0.07182 274975 829700 Total, All Scenarios 0.69625 3.94312 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00078 0.00105 0.00011 275 695 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00340 0.00404 0.00040 1076 2690 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00632 0.00804 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00245 0.00080 0.00008 101 422 Intrusion Collisions 0.00533 0.00166 0.00017 209 876 Intrusion Collisions 0.01169 0.00388 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00141 0.00060 0.00006 233 472 Diamond Collisions 0.00157 0.00066 0.00007 259 523 Diamond Collisions 0.00347 0.00146 0

Overspeed 0.00077 0.00024 0.00002 423 519 Overspeed 0.00239 0.00070 0.00007 1246 1525 Overspeed 0.00650 0.00214 0

Broken Rail 0.00687 0.00214 0.00021 3755 4611 Broken Rail 0.01422 0.00415 0.00042 7423 9084 Broken Rail 0.02990 0.00986 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00622 0.00062 0 2488 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01484 0.00147 0 5883 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03670 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04661 0.01657 0.00085 3314 7526 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08917 0.02799 0.00143 5568 12665 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11412 0.04334 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05889 0.02762 0.00196 8100 16733 Total, All Scenarios 0.11608 0.05403 0.00402 15780 33246 Total, All Scenarios 0.17200 0.10542 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65264 2.87810 0.05946 247029 713219 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86041 3.44657 0.07584 290755 862946 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86825 4.04854 0Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R3a: All Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, PTC Normal, Springf

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R2b: Summer, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, PTC Normal, Spring

Results Summary: PTC Case, High Preventability - 94%, Timeout 120 seconds, Latency 10 sec

PTC Normal Operating State

Table R1a: Full Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Sprin

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00024 0.00001 11 63 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00032 0.00001 14 82 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00040 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 125 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00072 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0Overspeed 0.00000 0.00021 0.00000 18 49 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 50 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00032 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00069 0.00001 56 157 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00102 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 48 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 50 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00018 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00082 0.00229 0.00003 222 553 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00074 0.00217 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00458 0.00010 379 1124 Total, All Scenarios 0.00086 0.00414 0.00009 330 1018 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 2 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 9 11 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0 9 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00005 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00011 0.00003 0.00000 7 16 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00014 0.00005 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 27 Total, All Scenarios 0.00015 0.00007 0.00001 21 45 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 

0.00101 0.00463 0.00010 392 1152 0 0 0 351 1062 0 0 

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00009 0.00000 3.7 22.0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00011 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00017 0.00001 7.1 41.4 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.4 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00007 0.00000 5.8 16.5 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00011 0Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18.5 52.2 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00034 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 0.0 16.5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00027 0.00076 0.00001 73.7 183.8 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00025 0.00072 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00029 0.00136 0.00003 108.9 332.8 Total, All Scenarios 0.00027 0.00158 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.4 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.3 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.3 0.4 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.9 2.4 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 1.0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 2.3 5.2 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0.00000 4.9 9.9 Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0

0.00033 0.00137 0.00003 113.7 342.6 0.00031 0.00161 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00024 0.00001 11 63 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00040 0.00002 17 104 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00051 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00067 0.00002 28 166 Intrusion Collisions 0.00004 0.00096 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00002 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00021 0.00000 18 49 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00029 0.00000 23 66 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00043 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00091 0.00001 74 209 Broken Rail 0.00003 0.00136 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 48 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00017 0.00002 0 66 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00025 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00109 0.00305 0.00005 296 737 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00099 0.00289 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00458 0.00010 379 1124 Total, All Scenarios 0.00115 0.00550 0.00012 439 1350 Total, All Scenarios 0.00108 0.00641 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 3 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 11 14 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 0 10 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00015 0.00005 0.00000 9 21 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00017 0.00006 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 27 Total, All Scenarios 0.00019 0.00009 0.00001 26 55 Total, All Scenarios 0.00026 0.00016 0

bbb

Total Passenger + Freight 0.00101 0.00463 0.00010 392 1152 Total Passenger + Freight 0.00134 0.00559 0.00013 465 1405 Total Passenger + Freight 0.00134 0.00657 0Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R6a: All Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R6b: All Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R6c: All Year, PTC Timeout, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R5a: Summer, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R5b: Summer, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R5c: Summer, PTC Timeout, Spring

PTC Timeout Operating State

Table R4a: Full Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R4b: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R4c: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Spri

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00236 0.16395 0.00626 7129 42304 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00424 0.26347 0.00999 11326 67636 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00631 0.38506 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01045 0.29973 0.01065 12844 74761 Intrusion Collisions 0.01482 0.40179 0.01427 17123 100106 Intrusion Collisions 0.02278 0.57674 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00022 0.00234 0.00007 82 525 Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00280 0.00008 98 628 Diamond Collisions 0.00056 0.00604 0

Overspeed 0.00100 0.05150 0.00083 4244 11877 Overspeed 0.00142 0.06988 0.00112 5658 16007 Overspeed 0.00219 0.10378 0

Broken Rail 0.00857 0.43946 0.00706 36211 101350 Broken Rail 0.01215 0.59627 0.00956 48277 136585 Broken Rail 0.01868 0.88555 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05353 0.00535 0 21412 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07327 0.00733 0 29307 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.10872 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57206 1.84455 0.02738 178798 445380 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71259 1.99056 0.02960 192932 480782 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64681 1.88365 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59466 2.85506 0.05760 239309 697611 Total, All Scenarios 0.74548 3.39803 0.07194 275414 831051 Total, All Scenarios 0.69733 3.94953 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00078 0.00105 0.00011 275 696 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00340 0.00404 0.00040 1078 2695 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00633 0.00806 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00245 0.00080 0.00008 101 422 Intrusion Collisions 0.00534 0.00167 0.00017 209 877 Intrusion Collisions 0.01170 0.00388 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00141 0.00060 0.00006 233 473 Diamond Collisions 0.00158 0.00066 0.00007 260 524 Diamond Collisions 0.00347 0.00146 0

Overspeed 0.00077 0.00024 0.00002 424 520 Overspeed 0.00239 0.00070 0.00007 1248 1528 Overspeed 0.00651 0.00215 0

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00214 0.00021 3761 4618 Broken Rail 0.01424 0.00416 0.00042 7434 9098 Broken Rail 0.02995 0.00987 0Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00623 0.00062 0 2493 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01486 0.00147 0 5892 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03676 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04668 0.01659 0.00085 3319 7537 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08932 0.02803 0.00144 5577 12686 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11429 0.04341 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05899 0.02766 0.00196 8112 16760 Total, All Scenarios 0.11627 0.05412 0.00403 15805 33300 Total, All Scenarios 0.17226 0.10559 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65365 2.88273 0.05956 247421 714371 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86175 3.45216 0.07597 291220 864351 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86959 4.05512 0

PTC Totals, All Operating States, All Year

Table R7a: totals: All Year, All Operating States, Joliet Table R7b: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Bloomington Table R7c: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, 
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.20937 0.00800 9112 54058 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00471 0.24335 0.00923 10473 62506 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00708 0.35839 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01054 0.29310 0.01041 12560 73109 Intrusion Collisions 0.01122 0.29495 0.01047 12570 73487 Intrusion Collisions 0.01724 0.42338 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00219 0.00007 77 491 Diamond Collisions 0.00023 0.00199 0.00006 70 446 Diamond Collisions 0.00049 0.00436 0

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06034 0.00097 4972 13916 Overspeed 0.00125 0.06146 0.00099 4976 14078 Overspeed 0.00193 0.09127 0

Broken Rail 0.00858 0.43531 0.00700 35869 100392 Broken Rail 0.00913 0.44338 0.00711 35898 101563 Broken Rail 0.01403 0.65848 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05563 0.00556 0 22253 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05716 0.00572 0 22865 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08482 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57238 1.84557 0.02739 178897 445626 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.53522 1.49510 0.02223 144911 361115 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.48582 1.41481 0Total, All Scenarios 0.59651 2.90151 0.05940 241487 709844 Total, All Scenarios 0.56176 2.59739 0.05581 208899 636061 Total, All Scenarios 0.52660 3.03552 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00103 0.00010 274 686 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00342 0.00328 0.00033 881 2192 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00642 0.00661 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00077 0.00008 97 406 Intrusion Collisions 0.00449 0.00135 0.00014 170 711 Intrusion Collisions 0.01001 0.00322 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00052 0.00005 199 406 Diamond Collisions 0.00125 0.00044 0.00004 170 346 Diamond Collisions 0.00280 0.00098 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 550 Overspeed 0.00216 0.00063 0.00006 1129 1381 Overspeed 0.00577 0.00190 0

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00212 0.00021 3723 4572 Broken Rail 0.01180 0.00341 0.00034 6100 7466 Broken Rail 0.02535 0.00827 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00637 0.00064 0 2549 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01286 0.00129 0 5142 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03192 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04669 0.01659 0.00085 3319 7537 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07402 0.02323 0.00119 4622 10513 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09676 0.03675 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05930 0.02766 0.00196 8060 16706 Total, All Scenarios 0.09716 0.04520 0.00339 13071 27752 Total, All Scenarios 0.14711 0.08966 0

0.65581 2.92917 0.06136 249547 726550 0.65892 2.64259 0.05919 221970 663812 0.67371 3.12518 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00134 0.07268 0.00276 3134 18695 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00183 0.10014 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00373 0.09796 0.00348 4175 24406 Intrusion Collisions 0.00573 0.14061 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00007 0.00059 0.00002 21 133 Diamond Collisions 0.00014 0.00122 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00042 0.02041 0.00033 1653 4675 Overspeed 0.00064 0.03031 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00303 0.14725 0.00236 11922 33731 Broken Rail 0.00466 0.21869 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01898 0.00190 0 7594 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02817 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.17776 0.49655 0.00738 48127 119932 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16135 0.46988 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.18633 0.85443 0.01823 69032 209167 Total, All Scenarios 0.17435 0.98903 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00035 0.00035 0.00003 93 232 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00034 0.00035 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00088 0.00026 0.00003 33 137 Intrusion Collisions 0.00173 0.00055 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00037 0.00013 0.00001 51 103 Diamond Collisions 0.00079 0.00028 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00029 0.00008 0.00001 151 185 Overspeed 0.00081 0.00027 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00243 0.00070 0.00007 1256 1537 Broken Rail 0.00457 0.00149 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00219 0.00020 0 824 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00505 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01524 0.00478 0.00024 952 2165 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01743 0.00662 0Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.01957 0.00850 0.00060 2535 5184 Total, All Scenarios 0.02566 0.01461 0

0.20590 0.86293 0.01883 71568 214351 0.20001 1.00364 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.20937 0.00800 9112 54058 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00605 0.31602 0.01200 13608 81201 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00891 0.45853 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01054 0.29310 0.01041 12560 73109 Intrusion Collisions 0.01494 0.39291 0.01395 16745 97893 Intrusion Collisions 0.02297 0.56399 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00219 0.00007 77 491 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00258 0.00008 90 579 Diamond Collisions 0.00063 0.00559 0Overspeed 0.00118 0.06034 0.00097 4972 13916 Overspeed 0.00167 0.08187 0.00131 6629 18753 Overspeed 0.00257 0.12159 0

Broken Rail 0.00858 0.43531 0.00700 35869 100392 Broken Rail 0.01216 0.59064 0.00947 47821 135294 Broken Rail 0.01869 0.87718 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05563 0.00556 0 22253 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07615 0.00761 0 30459 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11299 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57238 1.84557 0.02739 178897 445626 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71298 1.99165 0.02961 193039 481047 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64717 1.88469 0Total, All Scenarios 0.59651 2.90151 0.05940 241487 709844 Total, All Scenarios 0.74809 3.45182 0.07404 277931 845227 Total, All Scenarios 0.70094 4.02455 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00103 0.00010 274 686 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00378 0.00362 0.00036 974 2424 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00675 0.00696 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00077 0.00008 97 406 Intrusion Collisions 0.00537 0.00161 0.00016 202 848 Intrusion Collisions 0.01174 0.00378 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00052 0.00005 199 406 Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00057 0.00006 221 449 Diamond Collisions 0.00359 0.00126 0Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 550 Overspeed 0.00245 0.00072 0.00007 1280 1566 Overspeed 0.00658 0.00217 0

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00212 0.00021 3723 4572 Broken Rail 0.01423 0.00412 0.00041 7356 9003 Broken Rail 0.02992 0.00976 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00637 0.00064 0 2549 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01505 0.00149 0 5967 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03697 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04669 0.01659 0.00085 3319 7537 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08927 0.02802 0.00143 5574 12678 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11419 0.04337 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05930 0.02766 0.00196 8060 16706 Total, All Scenarios 0.11673 0.05370 0.00399 15607 32936 Total, All Scenarios 0.17277 0.10427 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65581 2.92917 0.06136 249547 726550 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86483 3.50552 0.07802 293538 878163 Total Passenger + Freight 0.87371 4.12882 0

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R3a: All Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, PTC Normal, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R2b: Summer, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, PTC Normal, Spring

Results Summary: Basic PTC Case, Timeout 120 seconds, Latency 10 seconds with Reduced Severity o

PTC Normal Operating State

Table R1a: Full Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Spri
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16 98 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00045 0.00002 19 116 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00054 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 125 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00072 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 51 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18 52 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00034 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00069 0.00001 56 157 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00102 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 0 50 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00019 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00082 0.00229 0.00003 222 553 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00074 0.00217 0Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00473 0.00010 386 1162 Total, All Scenarios 0.00087 0.00429 0.00010 337 1055 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 2 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 9 11 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0 9 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00005 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00011 0.00003 0.00000 7 16 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00014 0.00005 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28 Total, All Scenarios 0.00015 0.00007 0.00001 21 45 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 

0.00101 0.00478 0.00010 399 1190 0 0 0 358 1100 0 0 

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 5.7 34.0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00018 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00017 0.00001 7.1 41.4 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.4 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 6.1 17.2 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00011 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18.5 52.2 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00034 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 0.0 16.8 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00027 0.00076 0.00001 73.7 183.8 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00025 0.00072 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00029 0.00141 0.00003 111.1 345.8 Total, All Scenarios 0.00027 0.00166 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.3 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.3 0.4 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.9 2.4 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 1.0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 2.3 5.2 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0.00000 4.9 10.0 Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0

0.00033 0.00142 0.00003 116.1 355.7 0.00031 0.00168 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16 98 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00058 0.00002 25 150 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00072 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00067 0.00002 28 166 Intrusion Collisions 0.00004 0.00096 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00002 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 51 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00030 0.00000 24 69 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00045 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00091 0.00001 74 209 Broken Rail 0.00003 0.00136 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00017 0.00002 0 67 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00025 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00109 0.00305 0.00005 296 737 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00099 0.00289 0Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00473 0.00010 386 1162 Total, All Scenarios 0.00115 0.00569 0.00013 448 1400 Total, All Scenarios 0.00108 0.00664 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 3 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 11 14 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 0 10 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00015 0.00005 0.00000 9 21 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00017 0.00006 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28 Total, All Scenarios 0.00019 0.00009 0.00001 26 55 Total, All Scenarios 0.00026 0.00016 0

bbb

Total Passenger + Freight 0.00101 0.00478 0.00010 399 1190 Total Passenger + Freight 0.00135 0.00579 0.00013 474 1456 Total Passenger + Freight 0.00134 0.00680 0

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R6a: All Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R6b: All Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R6c: All Year, PTC Timeout, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R5a: Summer, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R5b: Summer, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R5c: Summer, PTC Timeout, Sprin

PTC Timeout Operating State

Table R4a: Full Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R4b: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R4c: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Spr
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.20975 0.00802 9128 54156 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00606 0.31661 0.01202 13633 81351 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00893 0.45926 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01056 0.29360 0.01043 12582 73233 Intrusion Collisions 0.01497 0.39358 0.01398 16773 98059 Intrusion Collisions 0.02301 0.56494 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00220 0.00007 77 492 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00259 0.00008 91 581 Diamond Collisions 0.00064 0.00560 0

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06056 0.00097 4990 13967 Overspeed 0.00167 0.08217 0.00132 6653 18822 Overspeed 0.00257 0.12203 0

Broken Rail 0.00859 0.43598 0.00701 35924 100548 Broken Rail 0.01218 0.59155 0.00948 47895 135503 Broken Rail 0.01872 0.87853 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05576 0.00558 0 22302 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07632 0.00763 0 30526 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11324 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57325 1.84840 0.02743 179171 446309 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71407 1.99470 0.02966 193335 481784 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64816 1.88757 0Total, All Scenarios 0.59743 2.90624 0.05950 241873 711006 Total, All Scenarios 0.74925 3.45751 0.07417 278379 846628 Total, All Scenarios 0.70203 4.03119 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00103 0.00010 275 688 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00379 0.00363 0.00036 976 2429 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00677 0.00698 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00077 0.00008 97 407 Intrusion Collisions 0.00538 0.00161 0.00016 203 850 Intrusion Collisions 0.01176 0.00378 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00052 0.00005 200 407 Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00057 0.00006 222 450 Diamond Collisions 0.00360 0.00126 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 449 551 Overspeed 0.00246 0.00072 0.00007 1282 1569 Overspeed 0.00659 0.00217 0

Broken Rail 0.00689 0.00213 0.00021 3729 4579 Broken Rail 0.01426 0.00412 0.00041 7367 9017 Broken Rail 0.02997 0.00978 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2554 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01507 0.00149 0 5976 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03703 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04676 0.01662 0.00085 3324 7549 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08942 0.02806 0.00144 5583 12699 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11436 0.04343 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05939 0.02771 0.00196 8073 16734 Total, All Scenarios 0.11692 0.05379 0.00399 15632 32991 Total, All Scenarios 0.17303 0.10443 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65682 2.93394 0.06147 249946 727740 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86617 3.51131 0.07816 294011 879619 Total Passenger + Freight 0.87506 4.13562 0

PTC Totals, All Operating States, All Year

Table R7a: totals: All Year, All Operating States, Joliet Table R7b: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Bloomington Table R7c: Totals: All Year, All Operating States
Worksheet 8:

Basic Case, Cab Signal and ATS, 70% Preventability

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00949 0.70571 0.02705 30764 182477 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01061 0.72542 0.02767 31371 186923 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01539 1.04349 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00994 0.28484 0.01012 12206 71048 Intrusion Collisions 0.01058 0.28664 0.01018 12216 71416 Intrusion Collisions 0.01626 0.41145 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00407 0.00012 143 913 Diamond Collisions 0.00033 0.00358 0.00011 125 803 Diamond Collisions 0.00073 0.00784 0

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916 70493 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0Broken Rail 0.00841 0.43118 0.00693 35529 99440 Broken Rail 0.00895 0.43917 0.00704 35558 100600 Broken Rail 0.01376 0.65224 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0 45798 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.02319 151171 376715 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.63121 3.76467 0.08879 290162 933006 Total, All Scenarios 0.59509 3.43673 0.08457 255358 852746 Total, All Scenarios 0.56259 4.21788 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00161 0.00174 0.00017 504 1199 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00335 0.00353 0.00035 1000 2411 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00460 0.00503 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00218 0.00071 0.00007 90 376 Intrusion Collisions 0.00371 0.00116 0.00012 145 609 Intrusion Collisions 0.00790 0.00262 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00168 0.00078 0.00008 286 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00144 0.00066 0.00007 244 509 Diamond Collisions 0.00320 0.00148 0

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810 2215 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0

Broken Rail 0.00667 0.00208 0.00021 3650 4482 Broken Rail 0.01132 0.00331 0.00033 5911 7235 Broken Rail 0.02413 0.00795 0Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0 6729 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.00121 4717 10730 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06239 0.03328 0.00250 9073 19887 Total, All Scenarios 0.09883 0.05020 0.00386 13827 30438 Total, All Scenarios 0.14517 0.09373 0

0.69360 3.79795 0.09129 299236 952893 0.69393 3.48694 0.08843 269185 883184 0.70776 4.31160 0.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00356 0.24461 0.00933 10571 63007 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00504 0.34592 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00351 0.09520 0.00338 4057 23718 Intrusion Collisions 0.00540 0.13665 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00010 0.00107 0.00003 37 239 Diamond Collisions 0.00020 0.00220 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275 23412 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00297 0.14586 0.00234 11809 33411 Broken Rail 0.00457 0.21662 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0 15156 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.00770 50207 125113 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.19766 1.14442 0.02822 84957 284057 Total, All Scenarios 0.18674 1.39978 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00060 0.00061 0.00006 177 421 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00056 0.00058 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00077 0.00024 0.00002 30 127 Intrusion Collisions 0.00144 0.00048 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00043 0.00020 0.00002 73 152 Diamond Collisions 0.00090 0.00041 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377 461 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00236 0.00069 0.00007 1231 1507 Broken Rail 0.00439 0.00145 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0 1402 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.00025 983 2235 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.02062 0.01039 0.00080 2871 6304 Total, All Scenarios 0.02643 0.01686 0

0.21828 1.15481 0.02902 87827 290361 0.21317 1.41664 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00949 0.70571 0.02705 30764 182477 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01417 0.97002 0.03700 41943 249930 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.02043 1.38941 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00994 0.28484 0.01012 12206 71048 Intrusion Collisions 0.01409 0.38184 0.01356 16273 95135 Intrusion Collisions 0.02166 0.54810 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00407 0.00012 143 913 Diamond Collisions 0.00043 0.00464 0.00014 163 1042 Diamond Collisions 0.00093 0.01004 0

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00836 0.40995 0.00657 33191 93905 Overspeed 0.01285 0.60883 0Broken Rail 0.00841 0.43118 0.00693 35529 99440 Broken Rail 0.01192 0.58503 0.00938 47367 134010 Broken Rail 0.01833 0.86885 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.15197 0.01525 0 60953 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.22632 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.74378 2.07769 0.03089 201378 501828 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.67512 1.96610 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.63121 3.76467 0.08879 290162 933006 Total, All Scenarios 0.79275 4.58115 0.11279 340315 1136803 Total, All Scenarios 0.74933 5.61766 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00161 0.00174 0.00017 504 1199 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00396 0.00414 0.00041 1177 2832 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00516 0.00561 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00218 0.00071 0.00007 90 376 Intrusion Collisions 0.00448 0.00140 0.00014 175 736 Intrusion Collisions 0.00933 0.00310 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00168 0.00078 0.00008 286 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00186 0.00086 0.00009 317 660 Diamond Collisions 0.00409 0.00189 0

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00419 0.00122 0.00012 2187 2676 Overspeed 0.00873 0.00288 0Broken Rail 0.00667 0.00208 0.00021 3650 4482 Broken Rail 0.01368 0.00400 0.00040 7143 8742 Broken Rail 0.02852 0.00940 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02033 0.00203 0 8130 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04373 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09129 0.02865 0.00147 5700 12965 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11578 0.04397 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06239 0.03328 0.00250 9073 19887 Total, All Scenarios 0.11946 0.06059 0.00466 16698 36742 Total, All Scenarios 0.17161 0.11058 0

0.69360 3.79795 0.09129 299236 952893 0.91221 4.64174 0.11745 357012 1173545 0.92094 5.72824 0.

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Results Summary: Basic Case, Cab Signal and ATS, 70% Preventability.

Table R1a: Full Year, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, Joliet (Included in Full Year Table) Table R2b: Summer, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R3a: All Year, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, Springfield 

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
Worksheet 9:

Cab Singnal and ATS Case,80% Preventability

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damag

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00633 0.47048 0.01803 20509 121651 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00708 0.48361 0.01845 20914 124615 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01026 0.69566 0.02650 29919 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00963 0.27834 0.00989 11928 69428 Intrusion Collisions 0.01025 0.28010 0.00995 11938 69787 Intrusion Collisions 0.01576 0.40206 0.01426 17148 

Diamond Collisions 0.00030 0.00324 0.00010 113 726 Diamond Collisions 0.00027 0.00288 0.00009 101 647 Diamond Collisions 0.00059 0.00631 0.00019 221 

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916 70493 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0.00733 35795 

Broken Rail 0.00832 0.42659 0.00686 35151 98382 Broken Rail 0.00886 0.43450 0.00697 35179 99529 Broken Rail 0.01362 0.64530 0.01035 50539 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0 45798 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0.01699 0 

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.02319 151171 376715 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 0.02191 143142 Total, All Scenarios 0.62757 3.51751 0.07945 279222 869316 Total, All Scenarios 0.59107 3.18302 0.07502 244220 787584 Total, All Scenarios 0.55667 3.85218 0.09753 276763 

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00107 0.00116 0.00012 336 799 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00223 0.00235 0.00024 667 1608 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00308 0.00336 0.00034 963 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00208 0.00068 0.00007 85 358 Intrusion Collisions 0.00353 0.00110 0.00011 138 580 Intrusion Collisions 0.00752 0.00250 0.00025 314 

Diamond Collisions 0.00155 0.00070 0.00007 262 542 Diamond Collisions 0.00133 0.00059 0.00006 223 461 Diamond Collisions 0.00296 0.00133 0.00013 498 

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810 2215 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0.00024 4105 

Broken Rail 0.00660 0.00206 0.00021 3611 4434 Broken Rail 0.01120 0.00327 0.00033 5848 7158 Broken Rail 0.02387 0.00787 0.00079 13267 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0 6729 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0.00370 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.00121 4717 10730 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0.00190 7427 

Total, All Scenarios 0.06155 0.03256 0.00242 8838 19365 Total, All Scenarios 0.09731 0.04887 0.00373 13404 29480 Total, All Scenarios 0.14279 0.09170 0.00735 26573 

0.68912 3.55007 0.08187 288060 888681 0.68838 3.23189 0.07875 257623 817064 0.69946 3.94388 0.10489 303337 

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damag

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00237 0.16307 0.00622 7048 42005 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00336 0.23061 0.00877 9905 

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00340 0.09303 0.00330 3965 23178 Intrusion Collisions 0.00523 0.13353 0.00474 5695 

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00008 0.00086 0.00003 30 193 Diamond Collisions 0.00016 0.00177 0.00005 62 

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275 23412 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0.00244 11888 

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00294 0.14431 0.00231 11684 33055 Broken Rail 0.00452 0.21431 0.00344 16785 

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0 15156 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0.00564 0 

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.00770 50207 125113 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0.00728 47540 

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.19632 1.05895 0.02500 81208 262111 Total, All Scenarios 0.18480 1.27862 0.03236 91875 

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00040 0.00041 0.00004 118 280 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00037 0.00039 0.00004 114 

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00074 0.00023 0.00002 29 121 Intrusion Collisions 0.00137 0.00045 0.00005 57 

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00040 0.00018 0.00002 67 137 Diamond Collisions 0.00083 0.00037 0.00004 140 

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377 461 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0.00004 746 

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00233 0.00068 0.00007 1218 1491 Broken Rail 0.00434 0.00143 0.00014 2412 

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0 1402 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0.00067 0 

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.00025 983 2235 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0.00035 1350 Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.02033 0.01015 0.00077 2791 6128 Total, All Scenarios 0.02607 0.01658 0.00133 4820 

0.21664 1.06910 0.02578 83999 268239 0.21087 1.29520 0.03368 96695 

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damag

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00633 0.47048 0.01803 20509 121651 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00945 0.64668 0.02466 27962 166620 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01362 0.92627 0.03528 39824 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00963 0.27834 0.00989 11928 69428 Intrusion Collisions 0.01365 0.37312 0.01325 15902 92965 Intrusion Collisions 0.02099 0.53559 0.01900 22842 

Diamond Collisions 0.00030 0.00324 0.00010 113 726 Diamond Collisions 0.00035 0.00374 0.00011 131 839 Diamond Collisions 0.00075 0.00807 0.00024 283 

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00836 0.40995 0.00657 33191 93905 Overspeed 0.01285 0.60883 0.00977 47683 

Broken Rail 0.00832 0.42659 0.00686 35151 98382 Broken Rail 0.01180 0.57881 0.00928 46863 132585 Broken Rail 0.01814 0.85961 0.01379 67324 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.15197 0.01525 0 60953 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.22632 0.02263 0 

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.74378 2.07769 0.03089 201378 501828 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.67512 1.96610 0.02919 190682 

Total, All Scenarios 0.62757 3.51751 0.07945 279222 869316 Total, All Scenarios 0.78738 4.24197 0.10002 325427 1049695 Total, All Scenarios 0.74147 5.13080 0.12989 368638 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00107 0.00116 0.00012 336 799 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00264 0.00276 0.00028 785 1888 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00345 0.00375 0.00038 1078 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00208 0.00068 0.00007 85 358 Intrusion Collisions 0.00427 0.00133 0.00013 167 701 Intrusion Collisions 0.00889 0.00295 0.00030 371 

Diamond Collisions 0.00155 0.00070 0.00007 262 542 Diamond Collisions 0.00172 0.00077 0.00008 290 598 Diamond Collisions 0.00379 0.00170 0.00017 638 

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00419 0.00122 0.00012 2187 2676 Overspeed 0.00873 0.00288 0.00029 4851 

Broken Rail 0.00660 0.00206 0.00021 3611 4434 Broken Rail 0.01354 0.00396 0.00040 7067 8649 Broken Rail 0.02821 0.00930 0.00093 15679 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02033 0.00203 0 8130 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04373 0.00437 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09129 0.02865 0.00147 5700 12965 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11578 0.04397 0.00225 8777 

Total, All Scenarios 0.06155 0.03256 0.00242 8838 19365 Total, All Scenarios 0.11764 0.05902 0.00450 16195 35608 Total, All Scenarios 0.16885 0.10828 0.00868 31393 

0.68912 3.55007 0.08187 288060 888681 0.90502 4.30098 0.10453 341622 1085303 0.91032 5.23908 0.13857 400031 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Results Summary: Cab Signal and ATS Case, 80% Preventability

Table R1a: Full Year, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, Joliet (Included in Full Year Table) Table R2b: Summer, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R3a: All Year, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, Springfield 

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculationThere are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
Worksheet 10:

Cab Signal and ATS Case,Preventability 60%

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damag

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01265 0.94095 0.03606 41018 243303 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01415 0.96722 0.03689 41829 249230 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.02052 1.39132 0.05300 59838 

Intrusion Collisions 0.01025 0.29135 0.01035 12484 72669 Intrusion Collisions 0.01090 0.29319 0.01041 12494 73045 Intrusion Collisions 0.01676 0.42084 0.01493 17947 

Diamond Collisions 0.00046 0.00490 0.00015 172 1099 Diamond Collisions 0.00040 0.00427 0.00013 150 959 Diamond Collisions 0.00087 0.00938 0.00028 329 Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916 70493 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0.00733 35795 

Broken Rail 0.00850 0.43576 0.00700 35907 100497 Broken Rail 0.00905 0.44385 0.00712 35936 101670 Broken Rail 0.01391 0.65917 0.01057 51626 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0 45798 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0.01699 0 

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.02319 151171 376715 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 0.02191 143142 Total, All Scenarios 0.63485 4.01183 0.09814 301102 996696 Total, All Scenarios 0.59912 3.69045 0.09412 266496 917909 Total, All Scenarios 0.56851 4.58358 0.12501 308676 

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00215 0.00232 0.00023 672 1598 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00447 0.00470 0.00047 1333 3215 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00611 0.00670 0.00067 1914 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00229 0.00075 0.00007 94 393 Intrusion Collisions 0.00388 0.00121 0.00012 152 637 Intrusion Collisions 0.00827 0.00274 0.00027 345 

Diamond Collisions 0.00181 0.00086 0.00009 311 656 Diamond Collisions 0.00154 0.00073 0.00007 264 557 Diamond Collisions 0.00344 0.00163 0.00016 589 

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810 2215 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0.00024 4105 

Broken Rail 0.00674 0.00210 0.00021 3688 4530 Broken Rail 0.01145 0.00334 0.00033 5974 7312 Broken Rail 0.02439 0.00804 0.00080 13552 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0 6729 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0.00370 0 

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.00121 4717 10730 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0.00190 7427 

Total, All Scenarios 0.06323 0.03399 0.00257 9309 20409 Total, All Scenarios 0.10035 0.05153 0.00400 14251 31395 Total, All Scenarios 0.14756 0.09575 0.00776 27932 

0.69807 4.04582 0.10070 310411 1017106 0.69947 3.74199 0.09812 280747 949303 0.71607 4.67933 0.13277 336608 

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damag

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00475 0.32614 0.01243 14095 84010 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00672 0.46123 0.01755 19810 

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00362 0.09737 0.00346 4150 24259 Intrusion Collisions 0.00557 0.13977 0.00496 5961 

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00012 0.00127 0.00004 45 286 Diamond Collisions 0.00024 0.00263 0.00008 92 

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275 23412 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0.00244 11888 

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00300 0.14741 0.00236 11935 33766 Broken Rail 0.00462 0.21892 0.00351 17146 

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0 15156 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0.00564 0 

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.00770 50207 125113 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0.00728 47540 

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.19901 1.22988 0.03144 88706 306002 Total, All Scenarios 0.18867 1.52094 0.04145 102437 

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00080 0.00081 0.00008 236 561 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00075 0.00078 0.00008 229 

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00081 0.00025 0.00003 32 133 Intrusion Collisions 0.00150 0.00050 0.00005 63 

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00046 0.00022 0.00002 79 166 Diamond Collisions 0.00096 0.00046 0.00005 165 

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377 461 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0.00004 746 

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00238 0.00070 0.00007 1244 1523 Broken Rail 0.00443 0.00146 0.00015 2464 

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0 1402 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0.00067 0 

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.00025 983 2235 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0.00035 1350 Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.02092 0.01063 0.00082 2950 6481 Total, All Scenarios 0.02680 0.01713 0.00138 5017 

0.21992 1.24052 0.03226 91656 312483 0.21548 1.53807 0.04283 107454 

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damag

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01265 0.94095 0.03606 41018 243303 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01890 1.29336 0.04933 55924 333240 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.02724 1.85255 0.07055 79648 

Intrusion Collisions 0.01025 0.29135 0.01035 12484 72669 Intrusion Collisions 0.01453 0.39056 0.01387 16644 97304 Intrusion Collisions 0.02233 0.56060 0.01988 23908 

Diamond Collisions 0.00046 0.00490 0.00015 172 1099 Diamond Collisions 0.00052 0.00555 0.00017 194 1244 Diamond Collisions 0.00112 0.01201 0.00036 421 

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00836 0.40995 0.00657 33191 93905 Overspeed 0.01285 0.60883 0.00977 47683 

Broken Rail 0.00850 0.43576 0.00700 35907 100497 Broken Rail 0.01205 0.59126 0.00948 47871 135436 Broken Rail 0.01853 0.87810 0.01409 68772 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.15197 0.01525 0 60953 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.22632 0.02263 0 

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.74378 2.07769 0.03089 201378 501828 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.67512 1.96610 0.02919 190682 

Total, All Scenarios 0.63485 4.01183 0.09814 301102 996696 Total, All Scenarios 0.79813 4.92033 0.12556 355202 1223911 Total, All Scenarios 0.75719 6.10451 0.16646 411113 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00215 0.00232 0.00023 672 1598 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00527 0.00552 0.00055 1569 3776 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00686 0.00748 0.00075 2143 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00229 0.00075 0.00007 94 393 Intrusion Collisions 0.00469 0.00146 0.00015 184 770 Intrusion Collisions 0.00977 0.00324 0.00032 407 

Diamond Collisions 0.00181 0.00086 0.00009 311 656 Diamond Collisions 0.00200 0.00095 0.00009 343 722 Diamond Collisions 0.00440 0.00208 0.00021 754 

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00419 0.00122 0.00012 2187 2676 Overspeed 0.00873 0.00288 0.00029 4851 

Broken Rail 0.00674 0.00210 0.00021 3688 4530 Broken Rail 0.01383 0.00404 0.00040 7219 8835 Broken Rail 0.02882 0.00950 0.00095 16016 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02033 0.00203 0 8130 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04373 0.00437 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09129 0.02865 0.00147 5700 12965 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11578 0.04397 0.00225 8777 

Total, All Scenarios 0.06323 0.03399 0.00257 9309 20409 Total, All Scenarios 0.12127 0.06217 0.00482 17201 37875 Total, All Scenarios 0.17436 0.11288 0.00914 32949 

0.69807 4.04582 0.10070 310411 1017106 0.91940 4.98250 0.13038 372403 1261786 0.93155 6.21740 0.17561 444062 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Results Summary: Cab Signal and ATS Case, 60% Preventability

Table R1a: Full Year, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, Joliet (Included in Full Year Table) Table R2b: Summer, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R3a: All Year, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, Springfield 

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00949 0.60691 0.02326 26457 156930 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01061 0.62386 0.02380 26979 160754 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01539 0.89740 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00994 0.26920 0.00956 11537 67150 Intrusion Collisions 0.01058 0.27090 0.00962 11546 67497 Intrusion Collisions 0.01626 0.38885 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00350 0.00010 123 785 Diamond Collisions 0.00033 0.00308 0.00009 108 690 Diamond Collisions 0.00073 0.00675 0

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916 70493 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0

Broken Rail 0.00841 0.42255 0.00679 34818 97451 Broken Rail 0.00895 0.43039 0.00690 34847 98588 Broken Rail 0.01376 0.63919 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0 45798 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.02319 151171 376715 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 0Total, All Scenarios 0.63121 3.64103 0.08430 284455 901444 Total, All Scenarios 0.59509 3.31015 0.07998 249567 820533 Total, All Scenarios 0.56259 4.03505 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00161 0.00149 0.00015 434 1031 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00335 0.00303 0.00030 860 2074 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00460 0.00433 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00218 0.00059 0.00006 74 312 Intrusion Collisions 0.00371 0.00096 0.00010 120 505 Intrusion Collisions 0.00790 0.00217 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00168 0.00067 0.00007 246 515 Diamond Collisions 0.00144 0.00057 0.00006 210 438 Diamond Collisions 0.00320 0.00127 0

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810 2215 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0

Broken Rail 0.00667 0.00204 0.00020 3577 4392 Broken Rail 0.01132 0.00324 0.00032 5793 7090 Broken Rail 0.02413 0.00779 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0 6729 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.00121 4717 10730 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06239 0.03276 0.00244 8875 19482 Total, All Scenarios 0.09883 0.04935 0.00378 13510 29781 Total, All Scenarios 0.14517 0.09221 0

0.69360 3.67379 0.08674 293330 920926 0.69393 3.35950 0.08376 263078 850314 0.70776 4.12726 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00356 0.21036 0.00802 9091 54186 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00504 0.29749 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00351 0.08997 0.00320 3835 22417 Intrusion Collisions 0.00540 0.12914 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00010 0.00092 0.00003 32 206 Diamond Collisions 0.00020 0.00189 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275 23412 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00297 0.14294 0.00229 11573 32743 Broken Rail 0.00457 0.21229 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0 15156 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.00770 50207 125113 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.19766 1.10187 0.02668 83013 273232 Total, All Scenarios 0.18674 1.33921 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00060 0.00052 0.00005 152 362 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00056 0.00050 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00077 0.00020 0.00002 25 105 Intrusion Collisions 0.00144 0.00040 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00043 0.00017 0.00002 63 130 Diamond Collisions 0.00090 0.00036 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377 461 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00236 0.00068 0.00007 1207 1477 Broken Rail 0.00439 0.00142 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0 1402 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.00025 983 2235 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.02062 0.01022 0.00078 2806 6172 Total, All Scenarios 0.02643 0.01661 0

0.21828 1.11210 0.02746 85819 279405 0.21317 1.35581 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00949 0.60691 0.02326 26457 156930 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01417 0.83422 0.03182 36071 214940 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.02043 1.19489 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00994 0.26920 0.00956 11537 67150 Intrusion Collisions 0.01409 0.36087 0.01282 15381 89914 Intrusion Collisions 0.02166 0.51800 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00350 0.00010 123 785 Diamond Collisions 0.00043 0.00399 0.00012 140 896 Diamond Collisions 0.00093 0.00864 0

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00836 0.40995 0.00657 33191 93905 Overspeed 0.01285 0.60883 0

Broken Rail 0.00841 0.42255 0.00679 34818 97451 Broken Rail 0.01192 0.57333 0.00919 46420 131330 Broken Rail 0.01833 0.85148 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.15197 0.01525 0 60953 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.22632 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.74378 2.07769 0.03089 201378 501828 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.67512 1.96610 0Total, All Scenarios 0.63121 3.64103 0.08430 284455 901444 Total, All Scenarios 0.79275 4.41202 0.10666 332580 1093766 Total, All Scenarios 0.74933 5.37426 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00161 0.00149 0.00015 434 1031 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00396 0.00356 0.00036 1012 2435 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00516 0.00483 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00218 0.00059 0.00006 74 312 Intrusion Collisions 0.00448 0.00116 0.00012 145 611 Intrusion Collisions 0.00933 0.00257 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00168 0.00067 0.00007 246 515 Diamond Collisions 0.00186 0.00074 0.00007 272 568 Diamond Collisions 0.00409 0.00163 0

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00419 0.00122 0.00012 2187 2676 Overspeed 0.00873 0.00288 0

Broken Rail 0.00667 0.00204 0.00020 3577 4392 Broken Rail 0.01368 0.00392 0.00039 7000 8567 Broken Rail 0.02852 0.00921 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02033 0.00203 0 8130 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04373 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09129 0.02865 0.00147 5700 12965 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11578 0.04397 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06239 0.03276 0.00244 8875 19482 Total, All Scenarios 0.11946 0.05957 0.00456 16316 35953 Total, All Scenarios 0.17161 0.10882 0

0.69360 3.67379 0.08674 293330 920926 0.91221 4.47160 0.11122 348896 1129719 0.92094 5.48308 0

Table R3a: All Year, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, Joliet (Included in Full Year Table) Table R2b: Summer, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Results Summary: Basic Case, Cab Signal and ATS 70% Preventability with Reduced Severity of Co

Table R1a: Full Year, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00474 0.35286 0.01352 15382 91238 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00531 0.36271 0.01383 15686 93461 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00770 0.52175 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00941 0.27340 0.00971 11717 68197 Intrusion Collisions 0.01002 0.27512 0.00977 11726 68549 Intrusion Collisions 0.01541 0.39492 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00282 0.00008 99 633 Diamond Collisions 0.00024 0.00253 0.00008 89 569 Diamond Collisions 0.00052 0.00554 0

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916 70493 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0

Broken Rail 0.00823 0.42200 0.00678 34773 97324 Broken Rail 0.00876 0.42983 0.00689 34801 98459 Broken Rail 0.01347 0.63836 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0 45798 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.02319 151171 376715 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 0Total, All Scenarios 0.62565 3.38995 0.07468 273491 836520 Total, All Scenarios 0.58894 3.05212 0.07015 238389 754043 Total, All Scenarios 0.55353 3.66342 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00080 0.00087 0.00009 252 599 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00168 0.00176 0.00018 500 1206 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00232 0.00253 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00201 0.00066 0.00007 83 347 Intrusion Collisions 0.00342 0.00107 0.00011 134 562 Intrusion Collisions 0.00728 0.00242 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00066 0.00007 250 514 Diamond Collisions 0.00127 0.00056 0.00006 213 437 Diamond Collisions 0.00284 0.00125 0

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810 2215 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0

Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00204 0.00020 3572 4387 Broken Rail 0.01108 0.00324 0.00032 5786 7081 Broken Rail 0.02362 0.00778 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0 6729 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.00121 4717 10730 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06108 0.03219 0.00239 8700 19078 Total, All Scenarios 0.09647 0.04818 0.00366 13159 28959 Total, All Scenarios 0.14141 0.09063 0

0.68673 3.42213 0.07706 282191 855598 0.68541 3.10030 0.07381 251548 783003 0.69495 3.75405 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00178 0.12230 0.00466 5286 31504 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00252 0.17296 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00333 0.09137 0.00324 3894 22766 Intrusion Collisions 0.00512 0.13116 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00007 0.00076 0.00002 26 169 Diamond Collisions 0.00014 0.00155 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275 23412 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00291 0.14275 0.00229 11558 32700 Broken Rail 0.00447 0.21201 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0 15156 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.00770 50207 125113 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.19561 1.01487 0.02336 79246 250820 Total, All Scenarios 0.18378 1.21607 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00030 0.00030 0.00003 88 210 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00028 0.00029 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00071 0.00022 0.00002 28 117 Intrusion Collisions 0.00132 0.00044 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00017 0.00002 63 130 Diamond Collisions 0.00080 0.00035 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377 461 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00231 0.00067 0.00007 1205 1475 Broken Rail 0.00429 0.00142 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0 1402 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.00025 983 2235 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.02016 0.01002 0.00076 2744 6031 Total, All Scenarios 0.02585 0.01643 0

0.21577 1.02490 0.02412 81991 256851 0.20963 1.23251 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00474 0.35286 0.01352 15382 91238 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00709 0.48501 0.01850 20971 124965 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01022 0.69471 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00941 0.27340 0.00971 11717 68197 Intrusion Collisions 0.01335 0.36650 0.01302 15620 91316 Intrusion Collisions 0.02052 0.52608 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00282 0.00008 99 633 Diamond Collisions 0.00031 0.00329 0.00010 115 738 Diamond Collisions 0.00066 0.00709 0Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00836 0.40995 0.00657 33191 93905 Overspeed 0.01285 0.60883 0

Broken Rail 0.00823 0.42200 0.00678 34773 97324 Broken Rail 0.01167 0.57258 0.00918 46359 131159 Broken Rail 0.01794 0.85037 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.15197 0.01525 0 60953 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.22632 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.74378 2.07769 0.03089 201378 501828 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.67512 1.96610 0Total, All Scenarios 0.62565 3.38995 0.07468 273491 836520 Total, All Scenarios 0.78455 4.06700 0.09351 317635 1004864 Total, All Scenarios 0.73731 4.87949 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00080 0.00087 0.00009 252 599 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00198 0.00207 0.00021 588 1416 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00260 0.00282 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00201 0.00066 0.00007 83 347 Intrusion Collisions 0.00413 0.00129 0.00013 162 679 Intrusion Collisions 0.00861 0.00286 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00066 0.00007 250 514 Diamond Collisions 0.00165 0.00073 0.00007 276 567 Diamond Collisions 0.00364 0.00160 0

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00419 0.00122 0.00012 2187 2676 Overspeed 0.00873 0.00288 0

Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00204 0.00020 3572 4387 Broken Rail 0.01339 0.00391 0.00039 6991 8556 Broken Rail 0.02791 0.00920 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02033 0.00203 0 8130 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04373 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09129 0.02865 0.00147 5700 12965 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11578 0.04397 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06108 0.03219 0.00239 8700 19078 Total, All Scenarios 0.11663 0.05820 0.00442 15904 34990 Total, All Scenarios 0.16726 0.10706 0

0.68673 3.42213 0.07706 282191 855598 0.90118 4.12519 0.09793 333539 1039854 0.90457 4.98656 0

Table R3a: All Year, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, Joliet (Included in Full Year Table) Table R2b: Summer, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Results Summary: Northeast Corridor ATC Basic Case, 85% Preventability.

Table R1a: Full Year, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00633 0.47048 0.01803 20509 121651 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00708 0.48361 0.01845 20914 124615 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01026 0.69566 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00963 0.27834 0.00989 11928 69428 Intrusion Collisions 0.01025 0.28010 0.00995 11938 69787 Intrusion Collisions 0.01576 0.40206 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00030 0.00324 0.00010 113 726 Diamond Collisions 0.00027 0.00288 0.00009 101 647 Diamond Collisions 0.00059 0.00631 0

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916 70493 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0

Broken Rail 0.00832 0.42659 0.00686 35151 98382 Broken Rail 0.00886 0.43450 0.00697 35179 99529 Broken Rail 0.01362 0.64530 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0 45798 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.02319 151171 376715 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 0Total, All Scenarios 0.62757 3.51751 0.07945 279222 869316 Total, All Scenarios 0.59107 3.18302 0.07502 244220 787584 Total, All Scenarios 0.55667 3.85218 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00107 0.00116 0.00012 336 799 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00223 0.00235 0.00024 667 1608 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00308 0.00336 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00208 0.00068 0.00007 85 358 Intrusion Collisions 0.00353 0.00110 0.00011 138 580 Intrusion Collisions 0.00752 0.00250 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00155 0.00070 0.00007 262 542 Diamond Collisions 0.00133 0.00059 0.00006 223 461 Diamond Collisions 0.00296 0.00133 0

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810 2215 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0

Broken Rail 0.00660 0.00206 0.00021 3611 4434 Broken Rail 0.01120 0.00327 0.00033 5848 7158 Broken Rail 0.02387 0.00787 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0 6729 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.00121 4717 10730 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06155 0.03256 0.00242 8838 19365 Total, All Scenarios 0.09731 0.04887 0.00373 13404 29480 Total, All Scenarios 0.14279 0.09170 0

0.68912 3.55007 0.08187 288060 888681 0.68838 3.23189 0.07875 257623 817064 0.69946 3.94388 0.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00237 0.16307 0.00622 7048 42005 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00336 0.23061 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00340 0.09303 0.00330 3965 23178 Intrusion Collisions 0.00523 0.13353 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00008 0.00086 0.00003 30 193 Diamond Collisions 0.00016 0.00177 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275 23412 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00294 0.14431 0.00231 11684 33055 Broken Rail 0.00452 0.21431 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0 15156 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.00770 50207 125113 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.19632 1.05895 0.02500 81208 262111 Total, All Scenarios 0.18480 1.27862 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00040 0.00041 0.00004 118 280 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00037 0.00039 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00074 0.00023 0.00002 29 121 Intrusion Collisions 0.00137 0.00045 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00040 0.00018 0.00002 67 137 Diamond Collisions 0.00083 0.00037 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377 461 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00233 0.00068 0.00007 1218 1491 Broken Rail 0.00434 0.00143 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0 1402 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.00025 983 2235 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.02033 0.01015 0.00077 2791 6128 Total, All Scenarios 0.02607 0.01658 0

0.21664 1.06910 0.02578 83999 268239 0.21087 1.29520 0.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00633 0.47048 0.01803 20509 121651 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00945 0.64668 0.02466 27962 166620 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01362 0.92627 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00963 0.27834 0.00989 11928 69428 Intrusion Collisions 0.01365 0.37312 0.01325 15902 92965 Intrusion Collisions 0.02099 0.53559 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00030 0.00324 0.00010 113 726 Diamond Collisions 0.00035 0.00374 0.00011 131 839 Diamond Collisions 0.00075 0.00807 0

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00836 0.40995 0.00657 33191 93905 Overspeed 0.01285 0.60883 0

Broken Rail 0.00832 0.42659 0.00686 35151 98382 Broken Rail 0.01180 0.57881 0.00928 46863 132585 Broken Rail 0.01814 0.85961 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.15197 0.01525 0 60953 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.22632 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.74378 2.07769 0.03089 201378 501828 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.67512 1.96610 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.62757 3.51751 0.07945 279222 869316 Total, All Scenarios 0.78738 4.24197 0.10002 325427 1049695 Total, All Scenarios 0.74147 5.13080 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00107 0.00116 0.00012 336 799 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00264 0.00276 0.00028 785 1888 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00345 0.00375 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00208 0.00068 0.00007 85 358 Intrusion Collisions 0.00427 0.00133 0.00013 167 701 Intrusion Collisions 0.00889 0.00295 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00155 0.00070 0.00007 262 542 Diamond Collisions 0.00172 0.00077 0.00008 290 598 Diamond Collisions 0.00379 0.00170 0

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00419 0.00122 0.00012 2187 2676 Overspeed 0.00873 0.00288 0

Broken Rail 0.00660 0.00206 0.00021 3611 4434 Broken Rail 0.01354 0.00396 0.00040 7067 8649 Broken Rail 0.02821 0.00930 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02033 0.00203 0 8130 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04373 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09129 0.02865 0.00147 5700 12965 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11578 0.04397 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06155 0.03256 0.00242 8838 19365 Total, All Scenarios 0.11764 0.05902 0.00450 16195 35608 Total, All Scenarios 0.16885 0.10828 0

0.68912 3.55007 0.08187 288060 888681 0.90502 4.30098 0.10453 341622 1085303 0.91032 5.23908 0

Table R3a: All Year, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, Joliet (Included in Full Year Table) Table R2b: Summer, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Results Summary: Northeast Corridor ATC Case, 80% Preventability

Table R1a: Full Year, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00316 0.23524 0.00902 10255 60826 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00354 0.24181 0.00922 10457 62308 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00513 0.34783 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00932 0.27184 0.00966 11650 67808 Intrusion Collisions 0.00992 0.27355 0.00971 11659 68159 Intrusion Collisions 0.01526 0.39267 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00022 0.00241 0.00007 84 540 Diamond Collisions 0.00020 0.00219 0.00007 77 491 Diamond Collisions 0.00044 0.00477 0

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916 70493 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0

Broken Rail 0.00823 0.42200 0.00678 34773 97324 Broken Rail 0.00876 0.42983 0.00689 34801 98459 Broken Rail 0.01347 0.63836 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0 45798 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.02319 151171 376715 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 0Total, All Scenarios 0.62394 3.27035 0.07010 268283 805626 Total, All Scenarios 0.58704 2.92930 0.06547 233082 722421 Total, All Scenarios 0.55074 3.48648 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00054 0.00058 0.00006 168 400 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00112 0.00118 0.00012 333 804 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00156 0.00170 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00198 0.00065 0.00006 81 340 Intrusion Collisions 0.00336 0.00105 0.00011 131 551 Intrusion Collisions 0.00715 0.00237 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00142 0.00062 0.00006 237 485 Diamond Collisions 0.00122 0.00053 0.00005 203 413 Diamond Collisions 0.00272 0.00118 0

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810 2215 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0

Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00204 0.00020 3572 4387 Broken Rail 0.01108 0.00324 0.00032 5786 7081 Broken Rail 0.02362 0.00778 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0 6729 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.00121 4717 10730 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06071 0.03184 0.00235 8602 18843 Total, All Scenarios 0.09579 0.04753 0.00360 12980 28523 Total, All Scenarios 0.14040 0.08968 0

0.68465 3.30220 0.07246 276884 824469 0.68283 2.97684 0.06907 246062 750945 0.69115 3.57616 0.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00119 0.08154 0.00311 3524 21002 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00168 0.11531 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00330 0.09085 0.00323 3872 22637 Intrusion Collisions 0.00507 0.13041 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00006 0.00065 0.00002 23 146 Diamond Collisions 0.00012 0.00134 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275 23412 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00291 0.14275 0.00229 11558 32700 Broken Rail 0.00447 0.21201 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0 15156 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.00770 50207 125113 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.19497 0.97348 0.02179 77459 240166 Total, All Scenarios 0.18287 1.15746 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00020 0.00020 0.00002 59 140 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00019 0.00019 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00070 0.00022 0.00002 27 115 Intrusion Collisions 0.00130 0.00043 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00036 0.00016 0.00002 60 123 Diamond Collisions 0.00076 0.00033 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377 461 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00231 0.00067 0.00007 1205 1475 Broken Rail 0.00429 0.00142 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0 1402 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.00025 983 2235 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.02003 0.00991 0.00075 2711 5951 Total, All Scenarios 0.02570 0.01631 0

0.21500 0.98339 0.02254 80170 246117 0.20856 1.17377 0.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00316 0.23524 0.00902 10255 60826 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00472 0.32334 0.01233 13981 83310 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00681 0.46314 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00932 0.27184 0.00966 11650 67808 Intrusion Collisions 0.01322 0.36441 0.01294 15531 90795 Intrusion Collisions 0.02032 0.52308 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00022 0.00241 0.00007 84 540 Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00284 0.00008 99 637 Diamond Collisions 0.00057 0.00611 0

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00836 0.40995 0.00657 33191 93905 Overspeed 0.01285 0.60883 0

Broken Rail 0.00823 0.42200 0.00678 34773 97324 Broken Rail 0.01167 0.57258 0.00918 46359 131159 Broken Rail 0.01794 0.85037 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.15197 0.01525 0 60953 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.22632 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.74378 2.07769 0.03089 201378 501828 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.67512 1.96610 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.62394 3.27035 0.07010 268283 805626 Total, All Scenarios 0.78201 3.90278 0.08726 310540 962587 Total, All Scenarios 0.73361 4.64394 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00054 0.00058 0.00006 168 400 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00132 0.00138 0.00014 392 944 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00175 0.00189 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00198 0.00065 0.00006 81 340 Intrusion Collisions 0.00406 0.00126 0.00013 159 666 Intrusion Collisions 0.00845 0.00280 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00142 0.00062 0.00006 237 485 Diamond Collisions 0.00158 0.00068 0.00007 263 536 Diamond Collisions 0.00348 0.00151 0

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00419 0.00122 0.00012 2187 2676 Overspeed 0.00873 0.00288 0

Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00204 0.00020 3572 4387 Broken Rail 0.01339 0.00391 0.00039 6991 8556 Broken Rail 0.02791 0.00920 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02033 0.00203 0 8130 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04373 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09129 0.02865 0.00147 5700 12965 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11578 0.04397 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06071 0.03184 0.00235 8602 18843 Total, All Scenarios 0.11583 0.05744 0.00435 15691 34475 Total, All Scenarios 0.16610 0.10599 0

0.68465 3.30220 0.07246 276884 824469 0.89784 3.96022 0.09160 326232 997062 0.89971 4.74993 0

Table R3a: All Year, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, Joliet (Included in Full Year Table) Table R2b: Summer, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Results Summary: Northeast Corridor ATC Case, 90% Preventability

Table R1a: Full Year, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 
Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

Results Summary: Northeast Corridor Basic Case: ATC 85% Preventability with Reduced Severity of C

Table R1a: Full Year, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, Springfield 

($) ($) 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00474 0.28229 0.01082 12306 72991 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00531 0.29017 0.01107 12549 74769 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00770 0.41740 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00941 0.25179 0.00895 10793 62812 Intrusion Collisions 0.01002 0.25338 0.00900 10801 63137 Intrusion Collisions 0.01541 0.36371 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00226 0.00007 79 507 Diamond Collisions 0.00024 0.00203 0.00006 71 455 Diamond Collisions 0.00052 0.00443 0Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916 70493 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0

Broken Rail 0.00823 0.40934 0.00658 33729 94404 Broken Rail 0.00876 0.41694 0.00668 33757 95505 Broken Rail 0.01347 0.61921 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0 45798 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0 59710 0.59710 1 92530 1.92530 0 02857 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0 55834 0.55834 1 55969 1.55969 0 02319 0.02319 151171 376715 Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0 50680 0.50680 1 47592 1.47592 0 

0

Total, All Scenarios 0.62565 3.28454 0.07099 268427 809842 Total, All Scenarios 0.58894 2.94443 0.06639 233265 726871 Total, All Scenarios 0.55353 3.50760 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00080 0.00069 0.00007 202 480 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00168 0.00141 0.00014 400 965 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00232 0.00203 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00201 0.00047 0.00005 60 250 Intrusion Collisions 0.00342 0.00077 0.00008 96 404 Intrusion Collisions 0.00728 0.00174 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00053 0.00005 200 411 Diamond Collisions 0.00127 0.00045 0.00004 170 350 Diamond Collisions 0.00284 0.00100 0Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810 2215 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0

Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00198 0.00020 3465 4255 Broken Rail 0.01108 0.00314 0.00031 5612 6868 Broken Rail 0.02362 0.00755 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0 6729 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.00121 4717 10730 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06108 0.03164 0.00233 8469 18627 Total, All Scenarios 0.09647 0.04731 0.00357 12806 28261 Total, All Scenarios 0.14141 0.08896 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.68673 3.31617 0.07332 276897 828468 Total Passenger + Freight 0.68541 2.99175 0.06996 246071 755132 Total Passenger + Freight 0.69495 3.59657 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00178 0.09784 0.00373 4229 25203 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00252 0.13837 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0 00333 0 08415 0 00299 3587 20969 Intrusion Collisions 0 00512 0 12079 0 

Table R2a: Summer, Joliet (Included in Full Year Table) Table R2b: Summer, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, Springfield 

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00333 0.08415 0.00299 3587 20969 Intrusion Collisions 0.00512 0.12079 0Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00007 0.00060 0.00002 21 136 Diamond Collisions 0.00014 0.00124 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275 23412 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00291 0.13847 0.00222 11211 31719 Broken Rail 0.00447 0.20565 0Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0 15156 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.00770 50207 125113 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.19561 0.97876 0.02210 77530 241707 Total, All Scenarios 0.18378 1.16445 0

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet SubFreight Train-Train Collisions corridor. Therefore only one risk Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00030 0.00024 0.00002 71 168 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00028 0.00023 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00071 0.00016 0.00002 20 84 Intrusion Collisions 0.00132 0.00032 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00013 0.00001 51 104 Diamond Collisions 0.00080 0.00028 0Overspeed Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377 461 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00231 0.00065 0.00007 1169 1431 Broken Rail 0.00429 0.00137 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0 1402 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.00025 983 2235 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0

Total All Scenarios Total All Scenarios 0 02016 0 00985 0 00074 2670 5885 Total All Scenarios 0 02585 0 01614 0 

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.02016 0.00985 0.00074 2670 5885 Total, All Scenarios 0.02585 0.01614 0

0.21577 0.98860 0.02284 80200 247592 0.20963 1.18059 0

Table R3a: All Year, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00474 0.28229 0.01082 12306 72991 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00709 0.38801 0.01480 16777 99972 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01022 0.55576 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00941 0.25179 0.00895 10793 62812 Intrusion Collisions 0.01335 0.33753 0.01199 14388 84105 Intrusion Collisions 0.02052 0.48451 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00226 0.00007 79 507 Diamond Collisions 0.00031 0.00263 0.00008 92 590 Diamond Collisions 0.00066 0.00567 0Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00836 0.40995 0.00657 33191 93905 Overspeed 0.01285 0.60883 0

B k R il 0 00823 0 40934 0 006 8 33 29 94404 B k R il 0 0116 0 41 0 00891 44968 12 224 B k R il 0 01 94 0 82486 0 

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Broken Rail 0.00823 0.40934 0.00658 33729 94404 Broken Rail 0.01167 0.55541 0.00891 44968 127224 Broken Rail 0.01794 0.82486 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.15197 0.01525 0 60953 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.22632 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.74378 2.07769 0.03089 201378 501828 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.67512 1.96610 0Total, All Scenarios 0.62565 3.28454 0.07099 268427 809842 Total, All Scenarios 0.78455 3.92319 0.08849 310795 968578 Total, All Scenarios 0.73731 4.67205 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00080 0.00069 0.00007 202 480 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00198 0.00166 0.00017 471 1133 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00260 0.00226 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00201 0.00047 0.00005 60 250 Intrusion Collisions 0.00413 0.00093 0.00009 116 489 Intrusion Collisions 0.00861 0.00206 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00053 0.00005 200 411 Diamond Collisions 0.00165 0.00058 0.00006 221 454 Diamond Collisions 0.00364 0.00128 0

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00053 0.00005 200 411 Diamond Collisions 0.00165 0.00058 0.00006 221 454 Diamond Collisions 0.00364 0.00128 0Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00419 0.00122 0.00012 2187 2676 Overspeed 0.00873 0.00288 0

Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00198 0.00020 3465 4255 Broken Rail 0.01339 0.00380 0.00038 6781 8299 Broken Rail 0.02791 0.00892 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02033 0.00203 0 8130 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04373 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09129 0.02865 0.00147 5700 12965 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11578 0.04397 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06108 0.03164 0.00233 8469 18627 Total, All Scenarios 0.11663 0.05716 0.00432 15476 34147 Total, All Scenarios 0.16726 0.10510 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.68673 3.31617 0.07332 276897 828468 Total Passenger + Freight 0.90118 3.98035 0.09281 326271 1002725 Total Passenger + Freight 0.90457 4.77716 0

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculationThere are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation
Worksheet 11:

CTC Reference Case

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00533 0.25201 0.00956 10983 64849 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.03538 2.41805 0.09223 104572 623076 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.05130 3.47830 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01232 0.33817 0.01201 14488 84337 Intrusion Collisions 0.01311 0.34030 0.01208 14499 84774 Intrusion Collisions 0.02016 0.48846 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00092 0.00989 0.00029 346 2218 Diamond Collisions 0.00079 0.00844 0.00025 296 1894 Diamond Collisions 0.00173 0.01861 0

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916 70493 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0Broken Rail 0.00895 0.45870 0.00737 37796 105787 Broken Rail 0.00952 0.46721 0.00749 37827 107021 Broken Rail 0.01464 0.69387 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0 45798 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.02319 151171 376715 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.63051 3.39763 0.07381 275134 836319 Total, All Scenarios 0.62342 5.21593 0.15163 333281 1309770 Total, All Scenarios 0.60428 6.78210 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00536 0.00579 0.00058 1681 3996 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.01117 0.01176 0.00118 3334 8038 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.01522 0.01669 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00294 0.00096 0.00010 121 505 Intrusion Collisions 0.00498 0.00155 0.00016 195 819 Intrusion Collisions 0.01062 0.00352 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00258 0.00135 0.00014 459 999 Diamond Collisions 0.00219 0.00114 0.00011 388 843 Diamond Collisions 0.00487 0.00253 0

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810 2215 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0

Broken Rail 0.00710 0.00221 0.00022 3883 4768 Broken Rail 0.01205 0.00352 0.00035 6289 7697 Broken Rail 0.02567 0.00846 0Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0 6729 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.00121 4717 10730 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06822 0.03827 0.00300 10686 23500 Total, All Scenarios 0.10941 0.05952 0.00480 16732 37070 Total, All Scenarios 0.16173 0.10785 0

0.69874 3.43590 0.07680 285821 859819 0.73283 5.27545 0.15643 350014 1346841 0.76601 6.88995 0.

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01186 0.81536 0.03108 35238 210025 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01681 1.15306 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00436 0.11302 0.00401 4815 28155 Intrusion Collisions 0.00670 0.16222 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00023 0.00252 0.00007 88 565 Diamond Collisions 0.00049 0.00522 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275 23412 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00316 0.15517 0.00249 12563 35543 Broken Rail 0.00486 0.23045 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0 15156 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.00770 50207 125113 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.20713 1.74375 0.05080 111186 437969 Total, All Scenarios 0.20037 2.24934 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00201 0.00203 0.00020 589 1402 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00187 0.00195 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00104 0.00032 0.00003 41 171 Intrusion Collisions 0.00193 0.00064 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00065 0.00034 0.00003 116 251 Diamond Collisions 0.00136 0.00071 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377 461 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00251 0.00073 0.00007 1310 1603 Broken Rail 0.00467 0.00154 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0 1402 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.00025 983 2235 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.02267 0.01208 0.00097 3415 7525 Total, All Scenarios 0.02899 0.01877 0

0.22980 1.75583 0.05177 114601 445494 0.22936 2.26811 0

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00533 0.25201 0.00956 10983 64849 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.04725 3.23341 0.12332 139809 833101 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.06811 4.63137 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01232 0.33817 0.01201 14488 84337 Intrusion Collisions 0.01747 0.45332 0.01609 19314 112929 Intrusion Collisions 0.02686 0.65068 0Diamond Collisions 0.00092 0.00989 0.00029 346 2218 Diamond Collisions 0.00102 0.01096 0.00033 384 2459 Diamond Collisions 0.00222 0.02383 0

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00836 0.40995 0.00657 33191 93905 Overspeed 0.01285 0.60883 0

Broken Rail 0.00895 0.45870 0.00737 37796 105787 Broken Rail 0.01269 0.62237 0.00998 50390 142564 Broken Rail 0.01950 0.92431 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.15197 0.01525 0 60953 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.22632 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.74378 2.07769 0.03089 201378 501828 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.67512 1.96610 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.63051 3.39763 0.07381 275134 836319 Total, All Scenarios 0.83055 6.95968 0.20243 444467 1747739 Total, All Scenarios 0.80466 9.03144 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00536 0.00579 0.00058 1681 3996 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.01319 0.01379 0.00138 3923 9440 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.01709 0.01864 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00294 0.00096 0.00010 121 505 Intrusion Collisions 0.00602 0.00188 0.00019 236 989 Intrusion Collisions 0.01255 0.00416 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00258 0.00135 0.00014 459 999 Diamond Collisions 0.00284 0.00148 0.00015 504 1094 Diamond Collisions 0.00623 0.00324 0

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00419 0.00122 0.00012 2187 2676 Overspeed 0.00873 0.00288 0Broken Rail 0.00710 0.00221 0.00022 3883 4768 Broken Rail 0.01456 0.00425 0.00043 7599 9300 Broken Rail 0.03034 0.01000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02033 0.00203 0 8130 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04373 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09129 0.02865 0.00147 5700 12965 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11578 0.04397 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.06822 0.03827 0.00300 10686 23500 Total, All Scenarios 0.13208 0.07160 0.00576 20147 44595 Total, All Scenarios 0.19071 0.12662 0

0.69874 3.43590 0.07680 285821 859819 0.96264 7.03128 0.20820 464615 1792334 0.99537 9.15806 0.

Table R3a: All Year, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, Joliet (Included in Full Year Table) Table R2b: Summer, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Results Summary: CTC Reference Case.

Table R1a: Full Year, Joliet Table R1b: Rest of Year, Bloomington Table R1c: Rest of Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summaries 
IDOT Risk Model: Basic PTC Case

Timeout 120 seconds,Latency 10 seconds

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25533 0.00976 11112 65925 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00471 0.29676 0.01126 12772 76227 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00708 0.43706 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01054 0.30131 0.01070 12912 75155 Intrusion Collisions 0.01122 0.30321 0.01077 12922 75544 Intrusion Collisions 0.01724 0.43523 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 93 598 Diamond Collisions 0.00023 0.00243 0.00007 85 544 Diamond Collisions 0.00049 0.00532 0

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06034 0.00097 4972 13916 Overspeed 0.00125 0.06146 0.00099 4976 14078 Overspeed 0.00193 0.09127 0

Broken Rail 0.00858 0.43970 0.00707 36231 101406 Broken Rail 0.00913 0.44786 0.00718 36261 102589 Broken Rail 0.01403 0.66513 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05563 0.00556 0 22253 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05716 0.00572 0 22865 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08482 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57238 1.84557 0.02739 178897 445626 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.53522 1.49510 0.02223 144911 361115 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.48582 1.41481 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59651 2.96055 0.06154 244217 724878 Total, All Scenarios 0.56176 2.66399 0.05821 211927 652962 Total, All Scenarios 0.52660 3.13365 0

0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 837 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00342 0.00400 0.00040 1074 2673 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00642 0.00806 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00449 0.00140 0.00014 176 738 Intrusion Collisions 0.01001 0.00332 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495 Diamond Collisions 0.00125 0.00054 0.00005 208 422 Diamond Collisions 0.00280 0.00120 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 550 Overspeed 0.00216 0.00063 0.00006 1129 1381 Overspeed 0.00577 0.00190 0

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00214 0.00021 3761 4619 Broken Rail 0.01180 0.00345 0.00034 6162 7541 Broken Rail 0.02535 0.00836 0Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00637 0.00064 0 2549 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01286 0.00129 0 5142 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03192 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04669 0.01659 0.00085 3319 7537 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07402 0.02323 0.00119 4622 10513 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09676 0.03675 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05930 0.02806 0.00200 8207 17013 Total, All Scenarios 0.09716 0.04610 0.00348 13370 28411 Total, All Scenarios 0.14711 0.09151 0

0.65581 2.98861 0.06354 252424 741891 0.65892 2.71009 0.06169 225297 681373 0.67371 3.22516 0

Results Summary: Basic PTC Case, Timeout 120 seconds, Latency 10 seconds

PTC Normal Operating State

Table R1a: Full Year, PTC Normal, Joliet

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R1b: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R1c: Rest of Year, PTC Normal, Sprin

Total Passenger + Freight

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00134 0.08863 0.00337 3822 22799 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00183 0.12212 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00373 0.10070 0.00358 4292 25089 Intrusion Collisions 0.00573 0.14455 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00007 0.00072 0.00002 25 162 Diamond Collisions 0.00014 0.00149 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00042 0.02041 0.00033 1653 4675 Overspeed 0.00064 0.03031 0Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00303 0.14874 0.00238 12043 34072 Broken Rail 0.00466 0.22090 0Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01898 0.00190 0 7594 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02817 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.17776 0.49655 0.00738 48127 119932 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16135 0.46988 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.18633 0.87474 0.01896 69962 214324 Total, All Scenarios 0.17435 1.01743 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00035 0.00042 0.00004 113 283 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00034 0.00043 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00088 0.00027 0.00003 34 144 Intrusion Collisions 0.00173 0.00057 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00037 0.00016 0.00002 62 126 Diamond Collisions 0.00079 0.00034 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00029 0.00008 0.00001 151 185 Overspeed 0.00081 0.00027 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00243 0.00071 0.00007 1269 1553 Broken Rail 0.00457 0.00151 0Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00219 0.00020 0 824 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00505 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01524 0.00478 0.00024 952 2165 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01743 0.00662 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.01957 0.00863 0.00061 2581 5280 Total, All Scenarios 0.02566 0.01478 0

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 0.20590 0.88337 0.01957 72544 219604 Total Passenger + Freight 0.20001 1.03221 0

Table R3a: All Year PTC Normal Joliet Table R3b: All Year PTC Normal Bloomington Table R3c: All Year PTC Normal Springf

Table R2a: Summer, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R2b: Summer, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, PTC Normal, Spring

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25533 0.00976 11112 65925 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00605 0.38539 0.01463 16595 99026 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00891 0.55919 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01054 0.30131 0.01070 12912 75155 Intrusion Collisions 0.01494 0.40391 0.01434 17213 100633 Intrusion Collisions 0.02297 0.57978 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00267 0.00008 93 598 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00315 0.00009 110 707 Diamond Collisions 0.00063 0.00681 0

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06034 0.00097 4972 13916 Overspeed 0.00167 0.08187 0.00131 6629 18753 Overspeed 0.00257 0.12159 0

Broken Rail 0.00858 0.43970 0.00707 36231 101406 Broken Rail 0.01216 0.59660 0.00957 48304 136661 Broken Rail 0.01869 0.88604 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05563 0.00556 0 22253 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07615 0.00761 0 30459 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11299 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57238 1.84557 0.02739 178897 445626 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71298 1.99165 0.02961 193039 481047 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64717 1.88469 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59651 2.96055 0.06154 244217 724878 Total, All Scenarios 0.74809 3.53873 0.07717 281889 867286 Total, All Scenarios 0.70094 4.15108 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 837 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00378 0.00442 0.00044 1187 2956 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00675 0.00849 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00537 0.00168 0.00017 210 882 Intrusion Collisions 0.01174 0.00389 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495 Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00070 0.00007 270 548 Diamond Collisions 0.00359 0.00153 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 550 Overspeed 0.00245 0.00072 0.00007 1280 1566 Overspeed 0.00658 0.00217 0

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00214 0.00021 3761 4619 Broken Rail 0.01423 0.00416 0.00042 7430 9094 Broken Rail 0.02992 0.00986 0Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00637 0.00064 0 2549 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01505 0.00149 0 5967 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03697 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04669 0.01659 0.00085 3319 7537 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08927 0.02802 0.00143 5574 12678 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11419 0.04337 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05930 0.02806 0.00200 8207 17013 Total, All Scenarios 0.11673 0.05473 0.00409 15951 33691 Total, All Scenarios 0.17277 0.10629 0

Total Passenger + Freight 0.65581 2.98861 0.06354 252424 741891 Total Passenger + Freight 0.86483 3.59345 0.08126 297841 900977 Total Passenger + Freight 0.87371 4.25737 0

Table R3a: All Year, PTC Normal, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, PTC Normal, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, PTC Normal, Springf

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
IDOT Risk Model: Basic PTC Case

Timeout 120 seconds,Latency 10 seconds

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16 98 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00045 0.00002 19 116 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00054 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 125 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00072 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 51 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18 52 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00034 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00069 0.00001 56 157 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00102 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 0 50 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00019 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00082 0.00229 0.00003 222 553 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00074 0.00217 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00473 0.00010 386 1162 Total, All Scenarios 0.00087 0.00429 0.00010 337 1055 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 2 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 9 11 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0 9 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00005 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00011 0.00003 0.00000 7 16 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00014 0.00005 0Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28 Total, All Scenarios 0.00015 0.00007 0.00001 21 45 Total, All Scenarios 0 0 

0.00101 0.00478 0.00010 399 1190 0 0 0 358 1100 0 0 

PTC Timeout Operating State

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R4a: Full Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R4b: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R4c: Rest of Year, PTC Timeout, Spri

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 5.7 34.0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00018 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00017 0.00001 7.1 41.4 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.4 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00008 0.00000 6.1 17.2 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00011 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18.5 52.2 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00034 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00004 0.00000 0.0 16.8 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00027 0.00076 0.00001 73.7 183.8 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00025 0.00072 0Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00029 0.00141 0.00003 111.1 345.8 Total, All Scenarios 0.00027 0.00166 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.2 0.5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.3 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.1 0.2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.3 0.4 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.9 2.4 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0 1.0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00004 0.00001 0.00000 2.3 5.2 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00003 0.00001 0

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0.00000 4.9 10.0 Total, All Scenarios 0.00004 0.00002 0

0.00033 0.00142 0.00003 116.1 355.7 0.00031 0.00168 0

Table R6a: All Year PTC Timeout Joliet Table R6b: All Year PTC Timeout Bloomington Table R6c: All Year PTC Timeout Spring

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R5a: Summer, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R5b: Summer, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R5c: Summer, PTC Timeout, Spring

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16 98 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00058 0.00002 25 150 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00072 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124 Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00067 0.00002 28 166 Intrusion Collisions 0.00004 0.00096 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 2 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00002 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 51 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00030 0.00000 24 69 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00045 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00091 0.00001 74 209 Broken Rail 0.00003 0.00136 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00017 0.00002 0 67 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00025 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00109 0.00305 0.00005 296 737 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00099 0.00289 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00473 0.00010 386 1162 Total, All Scenarios 0.00115 0.00569 0.00013 448 1400 Total, All Scenarios 0.00108 0.00664 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0.00000 2 5 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00001 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Diamond Collisions 0.00001 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 2 3 Overspeed 0.00001 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7 Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 11 14 Broken Rail 0.00004 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00003 0.00000 0 10 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00015 0.00005 0.00000 9 21 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00017 0.00006 0Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28 Total, All Scenarios 0.00019 0.00009 0.00001 26 55 Total, All Scenarios 0.00026 0.00016 0

bbb

Total Passenger + Freight 0.00101 0.00478 0.00010 399 1190 Total Passenger + Freight 0.00135 0.00579 0.00013 474 1456 Total Passenger + Freight 0.00134 0.00680 0

Table R6a: All Year, PTC Timeout, Joliet Table R6b: All Year, PTC Timeout, Bloomington Table R6c: All Year, PTC Timeout, Spring

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
IDOT Risk Model: Basic PTC Case

Timeout 120 seconds,Latency 10 seconds

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fa

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25571 0.00977 11129 66022 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00606 0.38598 0.01465 16620 99175 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00893 0.55991 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.01056 0.30181 0.01072 12933 75279 Intrusion Collisions 0.01497 0.40458 0.01437 17242 100799 Intrusion Collisions 0.02301 0.58073 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00025 0.00268 0.00008 94 600 Diamond Collisions 0.00029 0.00316 0.00009 111 709 Diamond Collisions 0.00064 0.00683 0

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06056 0.00097 4990 13967 Overspeed 0.00167 0.08217 0.00132 6653 18822 Overspeed 0.00257 0.12203 0

Broken Rail 0.00859 0.44038 0.00708 36287 101562 Broken Rail 0.01218 0.59752 0.00958 48378 136870 Broken Rail 0.01872 0.88739 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05576 0.00558 0 22302 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07632 0.00763 0 30526 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11324 0Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57325 1.84840 0.02743 179171 446309 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.71407 1.99470 0.02966 193335 481784 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.64816 1.88757 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.59743 2.96528 0.06164 244603 726040 Total, All Scenarios 0.74925 3.54442 0.07730 282337 868686 Total, All Scenarios 0.70203 4.15772 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 838 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00379 0.00443 0.00044 1190 2961 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00677 0.00851 0

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427 Intrusion Collisions 0.00538 0.00168 0.00017 211 884 Intrusion Collisions 0.01176 0.00390 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 496 Diamond Collisions 0.00163 0.00070 0.00007 270 549 Diamond Collisions 0.00360 0.00154 0

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 449 551 Overspeed 0.00246 0.00072 0.00007 1282 1569 Overspeed 0.00659 0.00217 0

Broken Rail 0.00689 0.00215 0.00021 3767 4626 Broken Rail 0.01426 0.00417 0.00042 7442 9108 Broken Rail 0.02997 0.00988 0Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00638 0.00064 0 2554 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01507 0.00149 0 5976 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03703 0

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04676 0.01662 0.00085 3324 7549 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.08942 0.02806 0.00144 5583 12699 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11436 0.04343 0

Total, All Scenarios 0.05939 0.02811 0.00200 8219 17040 Total, All Scenarios 0.11692 0.05482 0.00410 15977 33746 Total, All Scenarios 0.17303 0.10646 0

0.65682 2.99339 0.06364 252823 743081 0.86617 3.59924 0.08140 298314 902432 0.87506 4.26418 0

Table R7a: totals: All Year, All Operating States, Joliet Table R7b: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, Bloomington Table R7c: Totals: All Year, All Operating States, 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

PTC Totals, All Operating States, All Year

Results Summary 
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE 

Train/System Parameter Value Value Units

Type Train Type

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Sight Distance 2500 ft Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year

Appl'n Time (secs) 13.8 Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95 Probability Passenger 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00Train Weight (lb) 37600000 violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05 Probability Equipped Freight 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07 0.86 0.86

Brake Force (lb) 779683 PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2 Ratio Unequipped Freight 0.36 0.36 0.36 1.21 0.87 2.30

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 Potential danger length in Zone C 2500 ft

Coefficient B 0 Operating Days 91.0 274.0 91.0 274.0 91.0 274.0Safety Factor 1.25 Unit Cost Per Casualty Injury 100000 Dollars

Train Control PTC Timeout (secs) 120 Fatality 3000000 Dollars

PTC Latency (secs) 10 Timeout (secs) 120 120 120ACS Response (secs) 0 Normal Operating Mode 94.86 94.86 94.86

Timeout Mode 0.14 0.14 0.14

Fallback Mode 5.00 5.00 5.00

Seats 320 320 320

Occupancy Factor 0.6 0.6 0.6

15

Segment Start (MP) End (MP) Type Variant Passenger Segment Start (MP) End (MP) Type Variant 

Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS 

(Consq*) (Other) (Consq*) (O

1.0 62.60 64.80 CP Adjacent (M) 2.20 11616 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 14.0 88.35 90.55 Plain 2.20 11616 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 

2.0 64.80 66.55 Plain 1.75 9240 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 15.0 90.55 92.47 CP Adjacent (M) 1.92 10137.6 49.0 50.0 50 40 60 60 

3.0 66.55 68.23 Plain 1.68 8870.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 16.0 92.47 94.97 Siding (M) Pontiac (Sig'd) 2.50 13200 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 

4.0 68.23 70.17 CP Adjacent (M) 1.94 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 17.0 94.97 96.81 CP Adjacent (M) 1.84 9715.2 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 

5.0 70.17 72.80 Siding (M) Dw ight (sig'd) 2.63 13886.4 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 0 18.0 96.81 100.28 Plain 3.47 18321.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 

6.0 72.80 72.80 Diamond 0.00 0 40.0 40.0 40 40 40 40 40 0 19.0 100.28 102.25 CP Adjacent (M) 1.97 10401.6 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 

7.0 72.80 74.94 CP Adjacent (M) 2.14 11299.2 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 0 20.0 102.25 102.25 Diamond 0.00 0 40.0 40.0 40 40 40 40 

8.0 74.94 77.27 Plain 2.33 12302.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 21.0 102.25 104.60 CP Adjacent (M) 2.35 12408 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 

9.0 77.27 80.13 Plain 2.86 15100.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 22.0 104.60 106.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.83 9662.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 

10.0 80.13 81.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.86 9820.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 23.0 106.43 108.83 Siding (M) Ballard (Sig'd) 2.40 12672 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 

11.0 81.99 84.65 Siding (M) Odell (Sig'd) 2.66 14044.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 24.0 108.83 111.36 CP Adjacent (M) 2.53 13358.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 

12.0 84.65 86.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.78 9398.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 25.0 111.36 113.30 Plain 1.94 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 

13.0 86.43 88.35 Plain 1.92 10137.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 26.0 113.30 116.36 Plain 3.06 16156.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 

27.0 116.36 118.83 Plain 2.47 13041.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 28.0 118.83 121.40 CP Adjacent (M) 2.57 13569.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 

29.0 121.40 123.57 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 2.17 11457.6 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 79 

30.0 123.57 124.38 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.81 4276.8 25.0 40.0 40 25 40 40 31.0 124.38 124.86 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.48 2534.4 25.0 40.0 40 25 40 40 

Check Total 25.8 Check Total 36.5 

Train Type Representative Type of Number Train Type Representative Type of Number Train Type Representative Type of Number Train Type Representative Type of 

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds Speed (mph) Grade-crossing

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost 

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 1 Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 7 7 1 Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 2 Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50

Public_other 0 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.300

Private 0 0 Private Private Private 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 8 0 0 60 Public_gates_lights 16 60 Public_gates_lights 14 60 Public_gates_lights 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 11

Public_other 0 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.500

Private 0 0 Private 1 Private Private 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 20 8 0 79 Public_gates_lights 16 16 79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 79 Public_gates_lights 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 19

Public_other 0 0 Public_other 1 Public_other 5 1 Public_other 0.650

Private 1 0 Private 6 1 Private 5 1 Private 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 20 0 105 Public_gates_lights 16 105 Public_gates_lights 13 105 Public_gates_lights 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 34

Public_other 0 0 Public_other 1 Public_other 4 Public_other 0.800

Private 0 1 Private 6 Private 4 Private 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0 0 Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 7 Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.150 

Public_other 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.120

Private 0 Private Private Private 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 8 1 40 Public_gates_lights 16 1 40 Public_gates_lights 2 40 Public_gates_lights 0.300 

Public_other 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.250

Private 0 Private 1 Private Private 0.100

50 Public_gates_lights 20 0 50 Public_gates_lights 16 50 Public_gates_lights 26 50 Public_gates_lights 0.360 

Public_other 0 Public_other 1 Public_other 5 Public_other 0.300

Private 1 Private 6 Private 5 Private 0.120

Check Totals 29 29 29 Check Totals 47 47 47 Check Totals 39 39 39

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.0020 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.240 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.0160 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.0010 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.0010 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.0050 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.0320 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rolloutFrt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other)Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Segment Type Segment Type

Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Head-on Rear/Side Head-on R/S P into F R/S F into P Head-on Rear/Side

Siding - Monitored 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030 Siding - Monitored 50% 50% 50% 40% 10% 50% 50%

Siding - Unmonitored 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 Siding - Unmonitored 50% 50% 50% 40% 10% 50% 50%

CP-Adjacent, Monitored 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 CP-Adjacent, Monitored 90% 10% 80% 15% 5% 75% 25%CP-Adjacent, Unmonitored 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.060 CP-Adjacent, Unmonitored 90% 10% 80% 15% 5% 75% 25%

Plain Track 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 Plain Track 80% 20% 70% 25% 5% 50% 50%

Accident Type Units

Passenger Freight Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Per million train-miles 0.0086 0.0144 Passenger-Passenger 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.60 0.80 0.62

Intrusion Collision (other)) Per million train-miles 0.0144 0.0086 Passenger - Equip Freight 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.16 0.15 0.12

Overspeed Per million train-miles 0.0110 0.0160 Passenger - Unequip Freight 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.16 0.05 0.18

Broken Rail Per million train-miles 0.0167 0.0556 Equip Freight - Equip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Work Zone Violation Per million train-miles Equip Freight - Unequip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.05Diamonds Per million diamond passes 0.1000 0.1000 Unequip _Freight - Unequip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03

Checking 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Accident Type Preventability

Passenger Freight Passenger Freight Both TBE Pass-Pass 0.9

Intrusion Collision (rollout) 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.00 Pass-TBE Freight 0.9

Intrusion Collision (other)) 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.9Overspeed 0.80 0.80 0.50 0.50Broken Rail 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00Work Zone Violation 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.25 One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.9Grade Crossings 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00 Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0.9

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0.9TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.9

Table IN-3c: Crossing Data, Springfield Sub-Corridor

Table IN-2b: Segment Definitions: Bloomington Sub-Corridor: MP 88.3 (Bunge) - MP 124.9 (Bloomington)

Length

Bloomington Sub-Corridor

Per Million Crossing Passes

Crossin

Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accid

Number Crossings

Table IN-1b: Miscellaneous Inputs

Joliet Sub-Corridor

Table IN-3a: Crossing and Diamond Data, Joliet Sub-Corridor Table IN-3b: Crossing Data, Bloomington Sub-Corridor Table IN-3d: Grade Crossings: Collision Frequency and Cons

Accident Frequency

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph

Number Crossings

Table IN-4: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 60 mph

Representative Speed 50 mph

Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Number Crossings

Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph) 

Springfield Sub-Corridor

Percent Train-Miles in

Passenger Train Occupancy

Table IN-1a: Braking Formula Inputs

Table IN-2a: Segment Definitions: Joliet Sub-Corridor: MP 62.7 (Mazonia) - MP 88.3 (Bunge)

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph) Industry Siding 

Parameter

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

One-Way Trips/Day

Table IN-1c:Traffic and Related Data

Table IN-5b: Collision Distributions Between Head-on and Rear/Side by trains Involved and Segment type

Bloomington Sub-Corridor Springfield Sub-Corridor

Train-Train Collision Distributions by Train Types

Train-Train Collision Frequency by Segment Type, Sub Corridor and Season - (Collisions per Million Train Miles)

Table IN-5a: Reference Case Collision Accident Frequencies by Sub-Corridor and Season

All Other Accident Frequencies

Frequencies Joliet Sub-Corridor

Bloomington Sub-Corridor

Prev'ly Factors - PTC Timeout

Table IN-6a: Preventability for Other Accident Types

Preventability Factors - PTC Normal Collision Type

See Consequence Table

Equipped Train Preventability Values

Model Inputs: Basic PTC Case, Timeout 120 seconds, Latency 10 seconds

Passenger to Freight Freight to Freight

Collision Types

Table IN-5c: Reference Case Frequencies for Other Accident Types Table IN-5d: Reference Case Collision Distributions by Sub-Corridor and Train Type

Joliet Sub-Corridor Springfield Sub-Corridor Passenger to Passenger

Head-on and Rear/Side Train-Train Collision Distributions by Segment Type

Casualties and damage in Table IN-4 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations w hich are per million train-miles
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 1928 1928 0 0.668 65 0 1429 0 3356 0 3356

Appl'n Time 13.8 40 4097 2030 2068 0.668 21 77 462 1692 2491 3760 6251Train Weight 37600000 50 5965 3898 2068 0.668 43 77 945 1692 4843 3760 8603Brake Force 779683 Passenger 40 1732 1732 0 1.293 55 0 1219 0 2951 0 2951

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 3597 3597 0 1.293 78 0 1719 0 5316 0 5316

Coefficient B 0 79 5986 3588 2398 1.293 32 68 695 1499 4283 3896 8179Safety Factor 1.25 105 10228 7831 2398 1.293 61 68 1344 1499 9175 3896 13071

Train Control Latency/T-out 10 Frt Red'd Consq 35 1370 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start (MP) End (MP) Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass 

Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops 

(Consq*) (Other)

1.0 62.6 64.8 CP Adjacent (M) 2.2 11616 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4843 4283 9175 3760 3896 2441 3013 3437 0 0 0 1455 0 0 1455 00000

2.0 64.8 66.6 Plain 1.8 9240 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 65 501 1061 0 0 0 3831 0 0 1540 00000

3.0 66.6 68.2 Plain 1.7 8870.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4843 4283 8870 3896 3896 0 131 692 0 0 0 4200 0 0 1540 0 0 304 0 0 

4.0 68.2 70.2 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 10243.2 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 1069 1504 2064 0 0 0 2828 0 0 1540 00000

5.0 70.2 72.8 Siding (M) Dwight (sig'd) 2.6 13886.4 60 79 110 40 60 60 79 0 2491 5316 4283 0 0 3896 11395 8571 5708 00000000000

6.0 72.8 72.8 Diamond 0.0 0 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 0 

7.0 72.8 74.9 CP Adjacent (M) 2.1 11299.2 60 79 110 40 60 60 79 0 2491 5316 4283 0 0 3896 8808 5984 3120 00000000000

8.0 74.9 77.3 Plain 2.3 12302.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 3128 3563 4124 0 0 0 768 0 0 768 0 0 0 0 0 

9.0 77.3 80.1 Plain 2.9 15100.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 3896 6362 6922 2030 00000000000

10.0 80.1 82.0 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 9820.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 646 1082 1642 0 0 0 3250 0 0 1540 00000

11.0 82.0 84.7 Siding (M) Odell (Sig'd) 2.7 14044.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 3896 5306 5866 974 00000000000

12.0 84.7 86.4 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9398.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 224 659 1220 0 0 0 3672 0 0 1540 00000

13.0 86.4 88.4 Plain 1.9 10137.6 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 963 1398 1959 0 0 0 2933 0 0 1540 00000

Check Total 25.8

Train Type Representativ e 

Speed (mph)

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 2.6 13886.450 2.7 14044.8

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 2.6 13886.4 2.6 13886.4 0.0 079 2.7 14044.8 2.7 14044.8 2.6 13886.4

105 0.0 0 2.7 14044.8

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 0.0 0

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 0.0 0

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 2.1 11299.250 7.8 41078.4

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 2.1 11299.2 2.1 11299.2 0.0 079 7.8 41078.4 7.8 41078.4 2.1 11299.2

105 0.0 0 7.8 41078.4

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 0.0 0

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 0.0 0

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 10.5 55651.2

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 10.5 55651.2 10.5 55651.2 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 10.5 55651.2

Check Total 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 27931.2Number Siding (M) Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 7334 9598 13457 3896 3896 7792 16701 14437 6682

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.263 0.344 0.482 0.139 0.139 0.279 0.598 0.517 0.239HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.249 0.326 0.458 0.133 0.133 0.265 0.668 0.591 0.327 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 1Number Siding (M) Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 000000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 52377.6Number Siding (M) Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 21863 22446 40981 15448 15584 8276 15066 14347 3120

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.417 0.429 0.782 0.295 0.298 0.158 0.288 0.274 0.060HS Pass 0 1791 709

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.397 0.407 0.743 0.280 0.283 0.222 0.373 0.360 0.085 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 1Number Siding (M) Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 000000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 55651.2Number Siding (M) Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 21863 22446 40981 000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.393 0.403 0.736 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 61 1593 846

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.373 0.383 0.702 0.000 0.000 0.064 0.100 0.100 0.034 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 25185.6Number Siding (M) Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 4059 7194 7176 4135 0 4795 16991 17992 13214

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.161 0.286 0.285 0.164 0.000 0.190 0.675 0.714 0.525HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.153 0.271 0.271 0.156 0.000 0.181 0.741 0.779 0.598

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Worksheet 1-JN: IDOT-PTC Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Joliet Sub-corridor, PTC Normal Operating State

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance Total Zone Lengths

Sight Distance (ft)

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Lengths in Feet

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals

Zone C within Sight Di

Ov erlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zoneFraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone B Totals

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (ft) (including free running in TO)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prev ention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop 

Full Prev ention

Ov erlap of Stopping Distance Ov erlap of Zone A1 

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Sub-Corridor 1: MP 62.7 (Mazonia) - MP 88.3 (Bunge)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Braking Duration (secs)

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Freight

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Plain Track

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representativ e Speed (mph) Industry Siding

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.71 0.50 0.50 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.5 0.5 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.70 0.3

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.22 0.50 0.50 0.11 0 0.11 0 0.5 0.5 0.11 0 0.11 0 0.7 0.3 0.154 0 0.066 0 0.7 0.3 0.154 0 0.066 0 0.40 0.6

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.500 0 0 0 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.07 1 0 0.0175 0.0175 0 0 1 0 0.0175 0.0175 0 0 1 0 0.028 0.028 0 0 1 0 0.028 0.028 0 0 1.00 0.0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0 1 0 00.0280 0 1 0 00.028 0 0 1 0 00.0105 0 0 1 0 0 0.0105 0 0.00 1.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0 1 0 0 00.0070 1 0 0 00.007 0 1 0 0 00.0035 0 1 0 0 0 0.0035 0.00 1.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.4825 0.0175 0.493 0.007 1 0.4825 0.0175 0.493 0.007 1 0.75 0.028 0.2185 0.0035 1 0.75 0.028 0.2185 0.0035 1 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.249 0.326 0.458 0.133 0.133 0.265 0.668 0.591 0.327Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 0.397 0.407 0.743 0.280 0.283 0.222 0.373 0.360 0.085CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 0.373 0.383 0.702 0.000 0.000 0.064 0.100 0.100 0.034Diamonds 0.153 0.271 0.271 0.156 0.000 0.181 0.741 0.779 0.598

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

Pass-TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 90% 90% 33% 90% 10% 90% 8% 90% 10% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 90% 90% 33% 90% 10% 90% 8% 90% 10% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 90% 90% 67% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 37% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0021 0.0021 0.0028 0.0028 0.0057 0.0014 0.0068 0.0017 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0004 0.0008 0.0003 0.0009 0.0004 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0004 0.0001 0.0006 0.0001 0.0013 0.0002 0.0015 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0025 0.0004 0.0025 0.0002 0.0034 0.0006 0.0034 0.0003 0.0066 0.0013 0.0018 0.0002 0.0079 0.0015 0.0022 0.0002 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0004 0.0029 0.0025 0.0004 0.0007 0.0040 0.0034 0.0006 0.0014 0.0079 0.0066 0.0013 0.0017 0.0094 0.0079 0.0015 0.0002 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0011 0.0011 0.0014 0.0014 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.0005 0.0005 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.0004 0.0004 0.0000 0.00

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0002 0.0013 0.0011 0.0002 0.0003 0.0018 0.0015 0.0003 0.0002 0.0010 0.0008 0.0002 0.0002 0.0012 0.0010 0.0002 0.0000 0.00

Total 0.0056 0.0025 0.0004 0.0025 0.0002 0.0077 0.0034 0.0006 0.0034 0.0003 0.0098 0.0066 0.0013 0.0018 0.0002 0.0118 0.0079 0.0015 0.0022 0.0002 0.00

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0004 0.0008 0.0003 0.0009 0.0004 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0004 0.0001 0.0006 0.0001 0.0013 0.0002 0.0015 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0002 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0003 0.0009 0.0013 0.0004 0.0002 0.0011 0.0015 0.0005 0.0002 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0004 0.0007 0.0004 0.0004 0.0011 0.0005 0.0006 0.0022 0.0009 0.0013 0.0026 0.0011 0.0015 0.00

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0002 0.0003 0.00007 0.00021 0.0004 0.00009 0.00028 0.0003 0.00008 0.00018 0.0003 0.00010 0.00021 0.00

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0001 0.0003 b 0.00035 0.00000 0.0005 0.00046 0.00000 0.0003 0.00030 0.00000 0.0004 0.00036 0.00000 0.00

Total 0.0014 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0002 0.0020 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0003 0.0000 0.0027 0.0009 0.0013 0.0004 0.0002 0.0033 0.0011 0.0015 0.0005 0.0002 0.00

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0070 0.0800 0.0096 0.1000 0.0126 0.1200 0.0151 0.00

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (Not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Collision Distribut

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On 

Worksheet 2 - J,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - PTC 120 Sec. Timeout Case, Joliet Sub-corridor PTC Normal Operating State, 

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corridor) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corridor)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains 

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freigh

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios 

Collision Type Like Trains

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passe

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freig

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one sub-corridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y ZAA AB AC AD AE AF

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300

Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 8 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500

Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 20 8 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.650

Private 1 0 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 20 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.800

Private 0 1 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120

Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 8 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain Diamond

Private 0 0.100 Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain

50 Public_gates_lights 20 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0029 0.0040 0.0079 0.0094 0.0008 0.000000 0.0004 0.0007 0.0014 0.0017 0.0002

Public_other 0 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0011 0.0014 0.0007 0.0009 0.0001 0.000000

Private 1 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0003 0.0005 0.0003 0.0004 0.0001 0.008034 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0013 0.0018 0.0010 0.0012 0.0002 0.001607 0.0002 0.0003 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0007 0.0011 0.0022 0.0026 0.0002 0.000000

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0003 0.0004 0.0003 0.0003 0.0000 0.027198

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass-Cons HS Pass Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0003 0.0005 0.0003 0.0004 0.0001 0.029625

1.0 62.60 64.80 CP Adjacent (M) 2.2 50 79 79 105

2.0 64.80 66.55 Plain 1.75 50 79 79 105

3.0 66.55 68.23 Plain 1.68 50 79 79 105 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

4.0 68.23 70.17 CP Adjacent (M) 1.94 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 40 60 79 105

5.0 70.17 72.80 Siding (M) 2.63 40 60 60 79 Freight 25 0.00

6.0 72.80 72.80 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 40 2.63 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0000 0.0015 0.0030

7.0 72.80 74.94 CP Adjacent (M) 2.14 40 60 60 79 50 2.66 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0005

8.0 74.94 77.27 Plain 2.33 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002

9.0 77.27 80.13 Plain 2.86 50 79 79 105 60 2.63 2.63 0.00 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0005

10.0 80.13 81.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.86 50 79 79 105 79 2.66 2.66 2.63

11.0 81.99 84.65 Siding (M) 2.66 50 79 79 105 105 0.00 0.00 2.66 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0014 0.0010

12.0 84.65 86.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.78 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0.00 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0003 0.0001

13.0 86.43 88.35 Plain 1.92 50 79 79 105 40 0.00 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0003 0.0002

50 0.00

Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 0.00 0.00 0.00

79 0.00 0.00 0.00

105 0.00 0.00 0.00

Freight 25 0.00

40 2.14

50 7.78

Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

Length Check -70.2 18.2 60 2.14 2.14 0.00

79 7.78 7.78 2.14

105 0.00 0.00 7.78

Freight 25 0.00

40 0.00

50 0.00

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 0.00 0.00 0.00

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 0.00 0.00 0.00

Equipped Freight 1.07 1.07 105 0.00 0.00 0.00

Unequipped Freight 0.36 0.36 Freight 25 0.00

40 0.00

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 10.54

Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 0.00 0.00 0.00

79 10.54 10.54 0.00

Timeout (secs) 120 105 0.00 0.00 10.54

Normal Operating Mode 94.86 Freight 25 0.00

Timeout Mode 0.14 40 4.77

Fallback Mode 5 50 20.98

Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 4.77 4.77 0.00

79 20.98 20.98 4.77

Seats 320 105 0.00 0.00 20.98

Occupancy Factor 0.6

Checking Total 25.75 25.75 25.75 25.75

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq. Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill tm) Rate 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25726 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25726 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25726 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.008034 0.000207 0.001349 0.000040 51.88

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25726 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.001607 0.000041 0.001317 0.000040 41.54

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 20774 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 20774 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 20774 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 20774 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 20774 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000248 0.002667 0.000079 93.42

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25726 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25726 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25726 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.008034 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25726 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001607 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 20774 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 20774 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 20774 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 20774 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 20774 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00148 Incl 0.00148 7.43 25726 25.75 662436 0.00098 320 0.6 192 0.045 0.0016 1940 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00017 Incl 0.00017 7.43 25726 25.75 662436 0.00011 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 110 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00009 Incl 0.00009 7.43 25726 25.75 662436 0.00006 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0001 58 0 0.008034 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00030 Incl 0.00030 7.43 25726 25.75 662436 0.00020 320 0.6 192 0.018 0.0008 787 0 0.001607 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 20774 4.77 99094 0.00060 320 0.6 192 0.006 0.0002 265

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 20774 4.77 99094 0.00136 320 0.6 192 0.028 0.0010 1205

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 20774 4.77 99094 0.00022 320 0.6 192 0.009 0.0001 567

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 20774 4.77 99094 0.00159 320 0.6 192 0.064 0.0010 4131

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 20774 4.77 99094 0.008 0.0008 0

0.00511 0.18188 0.00573 9063 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00303 Incl 0.00303 7.43 25726 20.98 539725 0.00164 320 0.6 192 0.133 0.0050 5715 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00046 Incl 0.00046 7.43 25726 20.98 539725 0.00025 320 0.6 192 0.008 0.0004 436 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00016 Incl 0.00016 7.43 25726 20.98 539725 0.00009 320 0.6 192 0.003 0.0001 149 0 0.008034 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00051 Incl 0.00051 7.43 25726 20.98 539725 0.00027 320 0.6 192 0.044 0.0017 1917 0 0.001607 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 20774 20.98 435848 0.00262 320 0.6 192 0.048 0.0017 2062

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 20774 20.98 435848 0.00596 320 0.6 192 0.219 0.0078 9379

broken Rail 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 20774 20.98 435848 0.00096 320 0.6 192 0.052 0.0008 4405

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 20774 20.98 435848 0.00699 320 0.6 192 0.376 0.0060 32101

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 20774 20.98 435848 0.048 0.0048 0

Total 0.01878 0.93044 0.02834 56164 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.02389 1.11231 0.03407 65227 0.000248 0.002667 0.000079 93

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00360 0.25533 0.00976 11112

Intrusion Collisions 0.01054 0.30131 0.01070 12912

Overspeed 0.00118 0.06034 0.00097 4972

Broken Rail 0.00858 0.43970 0.00707 36231

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05563 0.00556 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill tm) Rate 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25726 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.027198 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25726 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.029625 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25726 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.30 0.01008 1.07 3705 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.05 0.00817 1.07 3705 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.36 1246 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.36 1246 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.80 0.00320 1.07 3705 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.36 1246 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.04 0.05338 1.07 3705 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.36 1246 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.50 1.07 3705 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.36 1246 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0014 Incl 0.00139 7.43 25726 4.77 122712 0.00017 0.00019 0.000019 $46 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0003 Incl 0.00027 7.43 25726 4.77 122712 0.00003 0.00003 0.000003 $7 1 0.027198 0.000700 0.000630 0.000063 157.43

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0003 Incl 0.00033 7.43 25726 4.77 122712 0.00004 0.00000 0.000000 $4 1 0.029625 0.000762 0.000000 0.000000 85.36

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.30 0.01008 1.07 3705 4.77 17672 0.00018 0.00004 0.000004 $5

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.05 0.00817 1.07 3705 4.77 17672 0.00014 0.00003 0.000003 $4

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.36 1246 4.77 5946 0.00009 0.00002 0.000002 $2

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.36 1246 4.77 5946 0.00005 0.00001 0.000001 $1

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.80 0.00320 1.07 3705 4.77 17672 0.00006 0.00001 0.000001 $21

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.36 1246 4.77 5946 0.00010 0.00001 0.000001 $36

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.04 0.05338 1.07 3705 4.77 17672 0.00094 0.00014 0.000014 $354

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.36 1246 4.77 5946 0.00033 0.00005 0.000005 $124

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.50 1.07 3705 4.77 17672 0.00058 0.000058 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.36 1246 4.77 5946 0.00039 0.000039 $0

Totals 0.00213 0.0015 0.00015 $605 0.001462 0.000630 0.000063 242.79

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0010 Incl 0.00101 7.43 25726 20.98 539725 0.00055 0.00093 0.000093 $230 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0001 Incl 0.00015 7.43 25726 20.98 539725 0.00008 0.00011 0.000011 $28 0 0.027198 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0002 Incl 0.00019 7.43 25726 20.98 539725 0.00010 0.00000 0.000000 $18 0 0.029625 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.30 0.01008 1.07 3705 20.98 77726 0.00078 0.00027 0.000027 $34

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.05 0.00817 1.07 3705 20.98 77726 0.00064 0.00022 0.000022 $28

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.36 1246 20.98 26151 0.00038 0.00013 0.000013 $17

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.36 1246 20.98 26151 0.00022 0.00008 0.000008 $10

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.80 0.00320 1.07 3705 20.98 77726 0.00025 0.00009 0.000009 $146

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.36 1246 20.98 26151 0.00042 0.00015 0.000015 $245

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.04 0.05338 1.07 3705 20.98 77726 0.00415 0.00145 0.000145 $2,431

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.36 1246 20.98 26151 0.00145 0.00051 0.000051 $852

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.50 1.07 3705 20.98 77726 0.00323 0.000323 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.36 1246 20.98 26151 0.00217 0.000217 $0

Totals 0.00902 0.0093 0.00093 $4,040 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.01115 0.0108 0.0011 $4,645 0.001462 0.000630 0.000063 $243

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335

Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102

Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243

Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448

Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00214 0.00021 3761

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00637 0.00064 0

Grade Crossing Collisions

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

Speed Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew InjuriesCrew Fatalitiesper 10 Years ($) Totals

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) ($)

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 4% 0.336 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

Public_other 0.30 4% 0.288 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00360 0.25533 0.00976 11112 65925

Private 0.10 4% 0.096 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.01054 0.30131 0.01070 12912 75155

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 4% 0.576 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000248 0.00267 0.00008 93 598

Public_other 0.50 4% 0.480 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00118 0.06034 0.00097 4972 13916

Private 0.20 4% 0.192 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00858 0.43970 0.00707 36231 101406

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 4% 0.768 6.00 8 166196 0.128 320 0.60 192 0.2573 0.0038 25017 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05563 0.00556 0 22253

Public_other 0.65 4% 0.624 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.57238 1.84557 0.02739 178897 445626

Private 0.30 4% 0.288 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 4% 1.056 6.00 20 415489 0.439 320 0.60 192 1.5669 0.0233 151810 Total, All Scenarios 0.59651 2.96055 0.06154 244217 724878

Public_other 0.80 4% 0.768 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

Private 0.30 4% 0.288 6.00 1 20774 0.006 320 0.60 192 0.0214 0.0003 2070 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00097 0.00126 0.00013 335 837

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 4% 0.144 1.07 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00248 0.00081 0.00008 102 427

Equipped Public_other 0.12 4% 0.115 1.07 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00146 0.00063 0.00006 243 495

Private 0.05 4% 0.048 1.07 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00082 0.00026 0.00003 448 550

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 4% 0.288 1.07 8 29638 0.009 0.00213 0.00011 427 Broken Rail 0.00688 0.00214 0.00021 3761 4619

Public_other 0.25 4% 0.240 1.07 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00637 0.00064 0 2549

Private 0.10 4% 0.096 1.07 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04669 0.01659 0.00085 3318.716 7537

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 4% 0.346 1.07 20 74096 0.026 0.00999 0.00051 1997

Public_other 0.30 4% 0.288 1.07 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Total, All Scenarios 0.05930 0.02806 0.00200 8207 17013

Private 0.12 4% 0.115 1.07 1 3705 0.000 0.00017 0.00001 33

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.36 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.65581 2.98861 0.06354 252424 741891

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.36 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.36 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.36 8 9972 0.003 0.00075 0.00004 150 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 3000000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.36 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.36 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.36 20 24929 0.009 0.00350 0.00018 700

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.36 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.36 1 1246 0.000 0.00006 0.00000 12

0.572 1.846 0.027 178897

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.047 0.017 0.001 3319

Train Type 0.619 1.86 0.03 182216

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Collision Scenario (From Coll Matrix)

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Worksheet 3 - J,N,R: - Risk Calculations - PTC 120 Sec. Timeout Case, Joliet Subcorridor, Normal Operating State, Rest of Year

Representative Speed 79 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 50 mph

Representative Speed 105 mph

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Collision Frequency for Passenger + Unequipped Freight Train 

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies by Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Passenger

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Freight

Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total Passenger + Freight

Freight Passenger

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, Accident Frequency and Consequencies

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings

Per 10 years

Data exported to the 

Results Summary 

w orksheet

Mauve cells contain data 

imported from previous 

w orksheet in a group of three 

w orksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating 

state.

Casualties and damage in 

Table 3.1 are per accident, 

except for Work Zone 

Violations w hich are per 

million train-miles

All train-to-train collision 

frequencies are in units of 

trains in collisions per million 

train miles operated in the 

sub-corridor by all train 

types..
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 5962 5962 0 0.668 175 0 3849 0 9811 0 9811

Appl'n Time (secs) 13.8 40 10552 8484 2068 0.668 131 77 2882 1692 11367 3760 15126Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 14034 11966 2068 0.668 153 77 3366 1692 15332 3760 19092Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 6132 6132 0 1.293 165 0 3640 0 9772 0 9772

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 10197 10197 0 1.293 188 0 4139 0 14336 0 14336

Coefficient B 0 79 14676 12278 2398 1.293 142 68 3115 1499 15393 3896 19289Safety Factor 1.25 105 21778 19381 2398 1.293 171 68 3764 1499 23145 3896 27041

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 120 Frt Red'd Consq 35 5220 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start (MP) End (MP) Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass H

Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops 

(Consq*) (Other)

1.0 62.6 64.8 CP Adjacent (M) 2.2 11616 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 11616 11616 11616 000000 7476 7673 15425 7476 7673 15425 3716 3777 11529 2500 2500 

2.0 64.8 66.6 Plain 1.8 9240 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 9240 9240 9240 000000 9852 10049 17801 8802 10049 17801 6092 6153 13905 2500 2500 

3.0 66.6 68.2 Plain 1.7 8870.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 8870 8870 8870 000000 10221 10419 18171 8802 10419 18171 6462 6523 14275 2500 2500 

4.0 68.2 70.2 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 10243.2 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 10243 10243 10243 000000 8849 9046 16798 8802 9046 16798 5089 5150 12902 2500 2500 

5.0 70.2 72.8 Siding (M) Dwight (sig'd) 2.6 13886.4 60 79 110 40 60 60 79 0 11367 13886 13886 2520 00000 1240 450 450 1240 450 450 0 450 0 0 450 

6.0 72.8 72.8 Diamond 0.0 0 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 0 

7.0 72.8 74.9 CP Adjacent (M) 2.1 11299.2 60 79 110 40 60 60 79 0 11299 11299 11299 000000 3827 3037 7990 3827 3037 7990 67 3037 4094 67 2500 

8.0 74.9 77.3 Plain 2.3 12302.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 12302 12302 12302 000000 6789 6987 14739 6789 6987 14739 3030 3091 10843 2500 2500 

9.0 77.3 80.1 Plain 2.9 15100.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 15101 15101 15101 000000 3991 4188 11940 3991 4188 11940 231 292 8044 231 292 

10.0 80.1 82.0 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 9820.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 9821 9821 9821 000000 9271 9468 17220 8802 9468 17220 5511 5572 13324 2500 2500 

11.0 82.0 84.7 Siding (M) Odell (Sig'd) 2.7 14044.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 14045 14045 14045 000000 5047 5244 12996 5047 5244 12996 1287 1348 9100 1287 1348 

12.0 84.7 86.4 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9398.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 9398 9398 9398 000000 9693 9891 17643 8802 9891 17643 5934 5995 13747 2500 2500 

13.0 86.4 88.4 Plain 1.9 10137.6 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 10138 10138 10138 000000 8954 9152 16904 8802 9152 16904 5194 5256 13008 2500 2500 

Check Total 25.8

Train Type Representativ e 

Speed (mph)

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 2.63 13886

50 2.66 14045

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 2.63 13886 2.63 13886 0.00 079 2.66 14045 2.66 14045 2.63 13886

105 0.00 0 2.66 14045

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 0.00 0

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

79 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 0.00 0

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 2.14 11299

50 7.78 41078

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 2.14 11299 2.14 11299 0.00 0

79 7.78 41078 7.78 41078 2.14 11299

105 0.00 0 7.78 41078

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 0.00 0

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

79 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 0.00 0

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 10.54 55651

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

79 10.54 55651 10.54 55651 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 10.54 55651

Check Total Checking 25.75 25.75 25.75 25.75

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 27931.2Number Siding (M) Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 644 1226 630 25411 27931 27931 2520 00000

Passenger 360 576 1565 0.910 1.000 1.000 0.090 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 500 225 1775

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.890 0.964 0.970 0.135 0.023 0.009 0.025 0.063 0.071 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 1Number Siding (M) Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 000000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 52377.6Number Siding (M) Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 2013 487 0 52378 52378 52378 000000

Passenger 2500 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 2500 0 0

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 1.031 1.050 1.050 0.019 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 1Number Siding (M) Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 000000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 55651.2Number Siding (M) Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 2046 454 0 52378 52378 52378 000000

Passenger 2058 442 0 0.941 0.941 0.941 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 2500 0 0

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.976 0.976 0.994 0.018 0.018 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 25185.6Number Siding (M) Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 16901 16907 18955 4135 0 4795 4149 8278 1435

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.671 0.671 0.753 0.164 0.000 0.190 0.165 0.329 0.057HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.638 0.638 0.715 0.156 0.000 0.181 0.257 0.412 0.154

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Industry Siding

Freight

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Plain Track

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representativ e Speed mph)

Braking Duration (secs)

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Ov erlap of Stopping Distance Ov erlap of Zone A1 Int

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Sub-Corridor 1: MP 62.7 (Mazonia) - MP 88.3 (Bunge)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (ft) (including free running in TO)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prev ention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop 

Full Prev ention

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 TotalsZone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone B Totals

Zone C within Sight Dista

Ov erlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Lengths in Feet

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals

Worksheet 1-J,T: IDOT-PTC Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Joliet Sub-corridor, PTC Timeout Operating State

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance Total Zone Lengths

Sight Distance (ft)

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.71 0.50 0.50 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.5 0.5 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.70 0.3

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.22 0.50 0.50 0.11 0 0.11 0 0.5 0.5 0.11 0 0.11 0 0.7 0.3 0.154 0 0.066 0 0.7 0.3 0.154 0 0.066 0 0.40 0.6

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.500 0 0 0 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.07 1 0 0.0175 0.0175 0 0 1 0 0.0175 0.0175 0 0 1 0 0.028 0.028 0 0 1 0 0.028 0.028 0 0 1.00 0.0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0 1 0 00.0280 0 1 0 00.028 0 0 1 0 00.0105 0 0 1 0 0 0.0105 0 0.00 1.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0 1 0 0 00.0070 1 0 0 00.007 0 1 0 0 00.0035 0 1 0 0 0 0.0035 0.00 1.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.4825 0.0175 0.493 0.007 1 0.4825 0.0175 0.493 0.007 1 0.75 0.028 0.2185 0.0035 1 0.75 0.028 0.2185 0.0035 1 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.890 0.964 0.970 0.135 0.023 0.009 0.025 0.063 0.071Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 1.031 1.050 1.050 0.019 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 0.976 0.976 0.994 0.018 0.018 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000Diamonds 0.638 0.638 0.715 0.156 0.000 0.181 0.257 0.412 0.154

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

Pass-TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 90% 90% 7% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 10% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 90% 90% 7% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 10% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 90% 90% 3% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0021 0.0021 0.0028 0.0028 0.0057 0.0014 0.0068 0.0017 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0004 0.0008 0.0003 0.0009 0.0004 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0005 0.0001 0.0006 0.0001 0.0014 0.0002 0.0015 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0025 0.0005 0.0025 0.0002 0.0034 0.0006 0.0034 0.0003 0.0066 0.0014 0.0018 0.0002 0.0079 0.0015 0.0022 0.0002 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0005 0.0030 0.0025 0.0005 0.0007 0.0040 0.0034 0.0006 0.0015 0.0080 0.0066 0.0014 0.0017 0.0094 0.0079 0.0015 0.0002 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0011 0.0011 0.0014 0.0014 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.0005 0.0005 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.0004 0.0004 0.0000 0.00

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0002 0.0013 0.0011 0.0002 0.0003 0.0018 0.0015 0.0003 0.0002 0.0010 0.0008 0.0002 0.0002 0.0012 0.0010 0.0002 0.0000 0.00

Total 0.0058 0.0025 0.0005 0.0025 0.0002 0.0077 0.0034 0.0006 0.0034 0.0003 0.0100 0.0066 0.0014 0.0018 0.0002 0.0118 0.0079 0.0015 0.0022 0.0002 0.00

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0004 0.0008 0.0003 0.0009 0.0004 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0005 0.0001 0.0006 0.0001 0.0014 0.0002 0.0015 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0004 0.0005 0.0004 0.0002 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0003 0.0009 0.0014 0.0004 0.0002 0.0011 0.0015 0.0005 0.0002 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0005 0.0009 0.0004 0.0005 0.0011 0.0005 0.0006 0.0023 0.0009 0.0014 0.0026 0.0011 0.0015 0.00

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0002 0.0003 0.00007 0.00021 0.0004 0.00009 0.00028 0.0003 0.00008 0.00018 0.0003 0.00010 0.00021 0.00

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0001 0.0003 b 0.00035 0.00000 0.0005 0.00046 0.00000 0.0003 0.00030 0.00000 0.0004 0.00036 0.00000 0.00

Total 0.0015 0.0004 0.0005 0.0004 0.0002 0.0020 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0003 0.0000 0.0029 0.0009 0.0014 0.0004 0.0002 0.0033 0.0011 0.0015 0.0005 0.0002 0.00

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0072 0.0800 0.0096 0.1000 0.0128 0.1200 0.0151 0.00

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freig

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freigh

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passe

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios 

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Worksheet 2-J,T,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - PTC 120 Sec. Timeout Case, Joliet Sub-corridor, PTC Timeout Operating State, 

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corridor) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corridor)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On 

Collision Distribut

Head On Collision Distribut

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On

Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (Not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Collision Distribution Head On Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one sub-corridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y ZAA AB AC AD AE AF

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300

Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 8 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500

Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 20 8 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.650

Private 1 0 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 20 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.800

Private 0 1 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120

Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 8 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain Diamond

Private 0 0.100 Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain

50 Public_gates_lights 20 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0030 0.0040 0.0080 0.0094 0.0008 0.000000 0.0005 0.0007 0.0015 0.0017 0.0002

Public_other 0 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0011 0.0014 0.0007 0.0009 0.0001 0.000000

Private 1 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0003 0.0005 0.0003 0.0004 0.0001 0.017194 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0013 0.0018 0.0010 0.0012 0.0002 0.003439 0.0002 0.0003 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0009 0.0011 0.0023 0.0026 0.0002 0.000000

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0003 0.0004 0.0003 0.0003 0.0000 0.033874

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass-Cons HS Pass Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0003 0.0005 0.0003 0.0004 0.0001 0.043629

1.0 62.60 64.80 CP Adjacent (M) 2.2 50 79 79 105

2.0 64.80 66.55 Plain 1.75 50 79 79 105

3.0 66.55 68.23 Plain 1.68 50 79 79 105 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

4.0 68.23 70.17 CP Adjacent (M) 1.94 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 40 60 79 105

5.0 70.17 72.80 Siding (M) 2.63 40 60 60 79 Freight 25 0

6.0 72.80 72.80 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 40 2.63 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0000 0.0016 0.0030

7.0 72.80 74.94 CP Adjacent (M) 2.14 40 60 60 79 50 2.66 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0005

8.0 74.94 77.27 Plain 2.33 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002

9.0 77.27 80.13 Plain 2.86 50 79 79 105 60 2.63 2.63 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0005

10.0 80.13 81.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.86 50 79 79 105 79 2.66 2.66 2.63

11.0 81.99 84.65 Siding (M) 2.66 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.66 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0015 0.0011

12.0 84.65 86.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.78 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0003 0.0001

13.0 86.43 88.35 Plain 1.92 50 79 79 105 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0003 0.0002

50 0

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 000

79 000

105 0 0 0

Freight 25 0

40 2.14

50 7.78

Passenger 40 0 0 0

Length Check 25.8 25.8 60 2.14 2.14 0

79 7.78 7.78 2.14

105 0 0 7.78

Freight 25 0

40 0

50 0

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 000

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 000

Equipped Freight 1.07 1.07 105 0 0 0

Unequipped Freight 0.36 0.36 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 10.54

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 000

79 10.54 10.54 0

Timeout (secs) 120 105 0 0 10.54

Normal Operating Mode 94.86 Freight 25 0

Timeout Mode 0.14 40 4.77

Fallback Mode 5 50 20.98

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 4.77 4.77 0

79 20.98 20.98 4.77

Seats 320 105 0 0 20.98

Occupancy Factor 0.6 Checking totals 25.75 25.75 25.75 25.75

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq. Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 38 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 38 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 38 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.017194 0.000001 0.000004 0.000000 0.16

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 38 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.003439 0.000000 0.000004 0.000000 0.13

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 31 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 31 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 31 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 31 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.25 6.00 31 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000001 0.000008 0.000000 0.29

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 38 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 38 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 38 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.017194 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 38 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.003439 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 31 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 31 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 31 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 31 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.25 0.00000 6.00 31 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00156 Incl 0.00156 7.43 38 25.75 974 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 3 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00017 Incl 0.00017 7.43 38 25.75 974 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00009 Incl 0.00009 7.43 38 25.75 974 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.017194 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00030 Incl 0.00030 7.43 38 25.75 974 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 1 0 0.003439 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 31 4.77 146 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 1

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 31 4.77 146 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 2

Overspeed 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 31 4.77 146 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 2

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 31 4.77 146 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 6

Work Zone Violation 0.25 6.00 31 4.77 146 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00001 0.00031 0.00001 15 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00303 Incl 0.00303 7.43 38 20.98 794 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00001 8 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00046 Incl 0.00046 7.43 38 20.98 794 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 1 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00016 Incl 0.00016 7.43 38 20.98 794 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.017194 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00051 Incl 0.00051 7.43 38 20.98 794 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 3 0 0.003439 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 31 20.98 641 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 4

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 31 20.98 641 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0003 0.00001 15

broken Rail 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 31 20.98 641 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00000 16

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 31 20.98 641 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0006 0.00001 49

Work Zone Violation 0.25 6.00 31 20.98 641 0.0001 0.00001 0

Total 0.00003 0.00159 0.00005 96 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.00004 0.00189 0.00006 112 0.000001 0.000008 0.000000 0

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq. Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 37.84 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.033874 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 37.84 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.043629 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 37.84 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 1.07 5.45 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 1.07 5.45 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.36 1.83 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.36 1.83 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.50 0.00800 1.07 5.45 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.36 1.83 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 1.07 5.45 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.36 1.83 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.25 1.07 5.45 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.36 1.83 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0015 Incl 0.00152 7.43 37.84 4.77 181 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0003 Incl 0.00027 7.43 37.84 4.77 181 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 1 0.033874 0.000001 0.000001 0.000000 0.29

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0003 Incl 0.00033 7.43 37.84 4.77 181 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 1 0.043629 0.000002 0.000000 0.000000 0.18

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 1.07 5.45 4.77 26 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 1.07 5.45 4.77 26 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.36 1.83 4.77 9 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.36 1.83 4.77 9 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.50 0.00800 1.07 5.45 4.77 26 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.36 1.83 4.77 9 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 1.07 5.45 4.77 26 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $1

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.36 1.83 4.77 9 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.25 1.07 5.45 4.77 26 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.36 1.83 4.77 9 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00000 0.0000 0.00000 $1 0.000003 0.000001 0.000000 0.47

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0011 Incl 0.00107 7.43 37.84 20.98 794 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0001 Incl 0.00015 7.43 37.84 20.98 794 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.033874 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0002 Incl 0.00019 7.43 37.84 20.98 794 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.043629 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 1.07 5.45 20.98 114 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 1.07 5.45 20.98 114 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.36 1.83 20.98 38 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.36 1.83 20.98 38 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.50 0.00800 1.07 5.45 20.98 114 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $1

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.36 1.83 20.98 38 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 1.07 5.45 20.98 114 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $4

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.36 1.83 20.98 38 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $1

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.25 1.07 5.45 20.98 114 0.00001 0.000001 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.36 1.83 20.98 38 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00001 0.0000 0.00000 $6 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.00002 0.0000 0.0000 $7 0.000003 0.000001 0.000000 $0

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1

Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0

Grade Crossing Collisions

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

Speed Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew InjuriesCrew Fatalitiesper 10 Years ($) Totals

Rate Rate per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) ($)

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 0 0.0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0.0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00001 0.00038 0.00001 16 98

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0.0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21 124

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0.0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000001 0.00001 0.00000 0 2

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0.0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00022 0.00000 18 51

Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0.0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00067 0.00001 56 155

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 8 244.5 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0004 0.0000 38 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00012 0.00001 0 49

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 0 0.0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00088 0.00283 0.00004 274 683

Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0.0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 20 611.2 0.001 320 0.60 192 0.0024 0.0000 233 Total, All Scenarios 0.00092 0.00473 0.00010 386 1162

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 0 0.0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 30.6 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 3 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 1.07 0 0.0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 1.07 0 0.0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 1

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 1.07 0 0.0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1 1

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 1.07 8 43.6 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 1 Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 6 7

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 1.07 0 0.0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 5

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 1.07 0 0.0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.00007 0.00003 0.00000 5 11

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 1.07 20 109.0 0.000 0.00002 0.00000 3

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 1.07 0 0.0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Total, All Scenarios 0.00009 0.00005 0.00000 13 28

Private 0.12 0% 0.120 1.07 1 5.4 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.36 0 0.0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.00101 0.00478 0.00010 399 1190

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.36 0 0.0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.36 0 0.0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.36 8 14.7 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 3000000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.36 0 0.0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.36 0 0.0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.36 20 36.7 0.000 0.00001 0.00000 1

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.36 0 0.0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.36 1 1.8 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.001 0.003 0.000 274

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.000 0.000 0.000 5

Train Type 0.001 0.00 0.00 279

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Totals All Types

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Passenger

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Freight

Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total Passenger + Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, Accident Frequency and Consequencies

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Freight Passenger

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies by Representative Speed (mph)

Segment Type

Trips/Day

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed 79 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 50 mph

Worksheet 3-J,T,R: - Risk Calculations - PTC 120 sec Timeout Case, Joliet Subcorridor, Timeout Operating State, Rest of Year

Collision Frequency for Passenger + Unequipped Freight Train 

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 105 mph

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Collision Scenario (From Coll Matrix)

Data exported to the 

Results Summary 

w orksheet

Mauve cells contain data 

imported from previous 

w orksheet in a group of three 

w orksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating 

state.

Casualties and damage in 

Table 3.1 are per accident, 

except for Work Zone 

Violations w hich are per 

million train-miles

All train-to-train collision 

frequencies are in units of 

trains in collisions per 

million train miles operated 

in the sub-corridor by all 

train types.. 
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 1928 1928 0 0.668 65 0 1429 0 3356 0 3356

Appl'n Time (sec) 13.8 40 4097 2030 2068 0.668 21 77 462 1692 2491 3760 6251Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 5965 3898 2068 0.668 43 77 945 1692 4843 3760 8603Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 1732 1732 0 1.293 55 0 1219 0 2951 0 2951

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 3597 3597 0 1.293 78 0 1719 0 5316 0 5316

Coefficient B 0 79 5986 3588 2398 1.293 32 68 695 1499 4283 3896 8179Safety Factor 1.25 105 10228 7831 2398 1.293 61 68 1344 1499 9175 3896 13071

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 10 Frt Red'd Consq 35 1370 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start (MP) End (MP) Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass H

Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops 

(Consq*) (Other)

14.0 88.4 90.6 Plain 2.2 11616 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Bunge 4843 4283 9175 3760 3896 2441 3013 3437 0 0 0 1455 0 0 1455 00000

15.0 90.6 92.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 10137.6 49.0 50.0 50.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 1.0 Donnley 2491 5316 4283 0 0 3896 7646 4822 1959 00000000000

16.0 92.5 95.0 Siding (M) Pontiac (Sig'd) 2.5 13200 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 Pontiac 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 3896 4461 5021 129 00000000000

17.0 95.0 96.8 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9715.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 Ocoya 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 541 976 1536 0 0 0 3356 0 0 1540 00000

18.0 96.8 100.3 Plain 3.5 18321.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 3896 9582 10143 5251 00000000000

19.0 100.3 102.3 CP Adjacent (M) 2.0 10401.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 0.0 2491 5316 4283 3760 0 3896 4151 5086 2223 00000000000

20.0 102.3 102.3 Diamond 0.0 0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 0.0 21.0 102.3 104.6 CP Adjacent (M) 2.3 12408 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 0.0 2491 5316 4283 0 0 3896 9917 7092 4229 00000000000

22.0 104.6 106.4 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9662.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 488 923 1484 0 0 0 3408 0 0 1540 0000023.0 106.4 108.8 Siding (M) Ballard (Sig'd) 2.4 12672 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 3497 3933 4493 0 0 0 399 0 0 399 0 0 0 0 0 

24.0 108.8 111.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.5 13358.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 3896 4619 5180 288 00000000000

25.0 111.4 113.3 Plain 1.9 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 1069 1504 2064 0 0 0 2828 0 0 1540 00000

26.0 113.3 116.4 Plain 3.1 16156.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 3896 7418 7978 3086 00000000000

27.0 116.4 118.8 Plain 2.5 13041.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Towanda 4843 4283 9175 3760 3896 3867 4439 4863 0 0 0 29 0 0 29 0 0 0 0 0 

28.0 118.8 121.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.6 13569.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4843 4283 9175 3760 3896 3896 4967 5391 499 00000000000

29.0 121.4 123.6 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 2.2 11457.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 79.0 79.0 1.0 Bloomington 2491 5316 4283 3760 0 3896 5207 6142 3279 0 0000000000

30.0 123.6 124.4 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.8 4276.8 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 1.0 Bloomington Bloomingtom 3356 2951 2951 0 0 0 920 1326 13260 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

31.0 124.4 124.9 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.5 2534.4 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 1.0 Bloomington 2534 2534 2534 0 0 0 0 0 0822 417 417 367 417 417 822 417 417 822 417 

Check Total 36.5

Train Type Representativ e 

Speed (mph)

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 1.29 6811

40 2.17 11458

50 4.90 25872

Passenger 40 1.29 6811 1.29 6811 1.29 6811

60 2.17 11458 0.00 0 0.00 0

79 4.90 25872 7.07 37330 2.17 11458

105 0.00 0 4.90 25872

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 0.00 0

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

79 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 0.00 0

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 6.24 32947

50 8.77 46306

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 6.24 32947 6.24 32947 0.00 079 8.77 46306 8.77 46306 6.24 32947

105 0.00 0 8.77 46306

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 0.00 0

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

79 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 0.00 0

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 13.14 69379

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

79 13.14 69379 13.14 69379 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 13.14 69379

Check Total 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 44140.8Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 164 0 2336 18068 19366 28117 11552 7792 11290 14521 16982 4734

Passenger 60 0 2440 0.409 0.439 0.637 0.262 0.177 0.256 0.329 0.385 0.107HS Pass 60 80 2361

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.395 0.419 0.608 0.249 0.168 0.246 0.406 0.463 0.196 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 1Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 000000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 79252.8Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 7 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 26846 33077 49546 19208 15584 20509 33199 30591 9198

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.339 0.417 0.625 0.242 0.197 0.259 0.419 0.386 0.116HS Pass 0 714 1786

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.322 0.396 0.594 0.230 0.187 0.274 0.498 0.467 0.182 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 1Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 000000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 69379.2Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 26846 33077 49546 000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.387 0.477 0.714 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 797 1703

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.368 0.453 0.678 0.000 0.000 0.032 0.100 0.100 0.068 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 22809.6Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 4059 7194 7176 4135 0 4795 14615 15616 10838

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.178 0.315 0.315 0.181 0.000 0.210 0.641 0.685 0.475HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.169 0.300 0.299 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.709 0.750 0.551

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Industry Siding

Freight

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Plain Track

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representativ e Speed (mph)

Braking Duration (secs)

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Ov erlap of Stopping Distance Ov erlap of Zone A1 Int

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Bloomington Sub-Corridor: MP 88.3 (Bunge) - MP 124.9 (Bloomington)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (ft) (including free running in TO)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prev ention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop 

Full Prev ention

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 TotalsZone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone B Totals

Zone C within Sight Dista

Ov erlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Length in Feet

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals

Worksheet 1-B,N: IDOT-PTC Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Bloomington Sub-corridor, PTC Normal Operating State

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance Total Zone Lengths

Sight Distance (ft)

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.5 0.5 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.8 0.2 0.48 0 0.12 0 0.8 0.2 0.48 0 0.12 0 0.70 0.3

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.16 0.50 0.50 0.08 0 0.08 0 0.5 0.5 0.08 0 0.08 0 0.7 0.3 0.112 0 0.048 0 0.7 0.3 0.112 0 0.048 0 0.40 0.6

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.500 0 0 0 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.16 1 0 0.04 0.04 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.04 0 0 1 0 0.064 0.064 0 0 1 0 0.064 0.064 0 0 1.00 0.0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0 1 0 00.0640 0 1 0 00.0640 0 1 0 00.0240 0 1 0 00.0240 0.00 1.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0 1 0 0 00.0160 1 0 0 00.0160 1 0 0 00.0080 1 0 0 00.008 0.00 1.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.08 0.5 0.5 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.5 0.5 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.7 0.3 0.028 0.028 0.012 0.012 0.7 0.3 0.028 0.028 0.012 0.012 0.50 0.5

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.44 0.06 0.464 0.036 1 0.44 0.06 0.464 0.036 1 0.684 0.092 0.204 0.02 1 0.684 0.092 0.204 0.02 1 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.395 0.419 0.608 0.249 0.168 0.246 0.406 0.463 0.196Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 0.322 0.396 0.594 0.230 0.187 0.274 0.498 0.467 0.182CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 0.368 0.453 0.678 0.000 0.000 0.032 0.100 0.100 0.068Diamonds 0.169 0.300 0.299 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.709 0.750 0.551

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

Pass-TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 90% 90% 20% 90% 10% 90% 18% 90% 10% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 90% 90% 20% 90% 10% 90% 18% 90% 10% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 90% 90% 41% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 50% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0018 0.0018 0.0024 0.0024 0.0048 0.0012 0.0058 0.0014 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0006 0.0002 0.0007 0.0003 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0010 0.0002 0.0014 0.0003 0.0026 0.0004 0.0035 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0000 0.0004 0.0000 0.0005 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0022 0.0010 0.0022 0.0005 0.0029 0.0014 0.0030 0.0006 0.0057 0.0026 0.0016 0.0004 0.0068 0.0035 0.0019 0.0005 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0011 0.0031 0.0022 0.0010 0.0016 0.0043 0.0029 0.0014 0.0029 0.0083 0.0057 0.0026 0.0038 0.0103 0.0068 0.0035 0.0003 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0009 0.0009 0.0012 0.0012 0.0006 0.0006 0.0007 0.0007 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0002 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003 0.0005 0.0005 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.0004 0.0004 0.0000 0.00

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0005 0.0014 0.0009 0.0005 0.0006 0.0019 0.0013 0.0006 0.0004 0.0011 0.0007 0.0004 0.0005 0.0013 0.0008 0.0005 0.0000 0.00

Total 0.0058 0.0022 0.0010 0.0022 0.0005 0.0079 0.0029 0.0014 0.0030 0.0006 0.0103 0.0057 0.0026 0.0016 0.0004 0.0126 0.0068 0.0035 0.0019 0.0005 0.00

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0006 0.0002 0.0007 0.0003 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0010 0.0002 0.0014 0.0003 0.0026 0.0004 0.0035 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0000 0.0004 0.0000 0.0005 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0001 0.0007 0.0001 0.0012 0.0002 0.0014 0.0002 0.0016 0.0003 0.0014 0.0001 0.0012 0.0003 0.0030 0.0001 0.0014 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0005 0.0017 0.0006 0.0017 0.0006 0.0029 0.0007 0.0022 0.0012 0.0040 0.0005 0.0016 0.0014 0.0065 0.0006 0.0019 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0011 0.0022 0.0005 0.0017 0.0035 0.0006 0.0029 0.0052 0.0012 0.0040 0.0079 0.0014 0.0065 0.00

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0005 0.0012 0.00011 0.00108 0.0016 0.00014 0.00144 0.0011 0.00012 0.00100 0.0013 0.00014 0.00120 0.00

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0002 0.0010 0.00044 0.00060 0.0014 0.00059 0.00080 0.0010 0.00036 0.00060 0.0012 0.00043 0.00072 0.00

Total 0.0044 0.0005 0.0017 0.0006 0.0017 0.0065 0.0006 0.0029 0.0007 0.0022 0.0000 0.0073 0.0012 0.0040 0.0005 0.0016 0.0104 0.0014 0.0065 0.0006 0.0019 0.00

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0102 0.0800 0.0144 0.1000 0.0175 0.1200 0.0230 0.00

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freig

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freigh

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passe

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios 

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Worksheet 2 - B,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - PTC 120 Sec.Timeout Case, Bloomington Sub-corridor, PTC Normal Operating St

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corridor) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corridor)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On 

Collision Distribut

Head On Collision Distribut

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On

Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (Not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Collision Distribution Head On Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one sub-corridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y ZAA AB AC AD AE AF

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 7 7 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300

Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 16 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500

Private 1 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 16 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 1 0 0.650

Private 6 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 16 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 1 0.800

Private 0 6 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 7 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120

Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 16 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain Diamond

Private 1 0.100 Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain

50 Public_gates_lights 16 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0031 0.0043 0.0083 0.0103 0.0009 0.000000 0.0011 0.0016 0.0029 0.0038 0.0003

Public_other 1 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0009 0.0012 0.0006 0.0007 0.0001 0.000000

Private 6 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0004 0.0005 0.0003 0.0004 0.0001 0.008741 0.0002 0.0003 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0014 0.0019 0.0011 0.0013 0.0002 0.001748 0.0005 0.0006 0.0004 0.0005 0.0000

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0022 0.0035 0.0052 0.0079 0.0006 0.000000

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0012 0.0016 0.0011 0.0013 0.0002 0.027661

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass-cons HS Pass Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0010 0.0014 0.0010 0.0012 0.0002 0.030653

14.0 88.35 90.55 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 105

15.0 90.55 92.47 CP Adjacent (M) 1.92 40 60 60 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

16.0 92.47 94.97 Siding (M) 2.50 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 40 60 79 105

17.0 94.97 96.81 CP Adjacent (M) 1.84 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 1.29

18.0 96.81 100.28 Plain 3.47 50 79 79 105 40 2.17 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0031 0.0000 0.0027 0.0024

19.0 100.28 102.25 CP Adjacent (M) 1.97 40 60 60 79 50 4.9 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0009 0.0000 0.0002 0.0004

20.0 102.25 102.25 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0004 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001

21.0 102.25 104.60 CP Adjacent (M) 2.35 40 60 60 79 60 2.17 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0014 0.0000 0.0005 0.0004

22.0 104.60 106.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.83 50 79 79 105 79 4.9 7.07 2.17

23.0 106.43 108.83 Siding (M) 2.40 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 4.9 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0022 0.0044 0.0024

24.0 108.83 111.36 CP Adjacent (M) 2.53 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0012 0.0011 0.0007

25.0 111.36 113.30 Plain 1.94 50 79 79 105 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0010 0.0010 0.0006

26.0 113.30 116.36 Plain 3.06 50 79 79 105 50 0

27.0 116.36 118.83 Plain 2.47 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0

28.0 118.83 121.40 CP Adjacent (M) 2.57 50 79 79 105 60 0 0 0

29.0 121.40 123.57 Siding (M) 2.17 40 60 79 79 79 0 0 0

30.0 123.57 124.38 Siding (M) 0.81 25 40 40 40 105 0 0 0

31.0 124.38 124.86 Siding (M) 0.48 25 40 40 40 Freight 25 0

40 6.24

50 8.77

Passenger 40 0 0 0

Length Check 36.5 36.5 60 6.24 6.24 0

79 8.77 8.77 6.24

105 0 0 8.77

Freight 25 0

40 0

50 0

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 000

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 000

Equipped Freight 1.07 1.07 105 0 0 0

Unequipped Freight 0.36 1.21 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 13.14

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 000

79 13.14 13.14 0

Timeout (secs) 120.00 105 0 0 13.14

Normal Operating Mode 94.86 Freight 25 1.29

Timeout Mode 0.14 40 8.41

Fallback Mode 5.00 50 26.81

Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29

60 8.41 6.24 0

79 26.81 28.98 8.41

Seats 320.00 105 0 0 26.81

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Checking Totals 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Rate Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios per million tm) Rate 10 years Track per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00312 Incl 0.00312 8.28 21521 1.29 27762 0.00009 320 0.6 192 0.0014 0.00003 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00090 Incl 0.00090 8.28 21521 1.29 27762 0.00002 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00038 Incl 0.00038 8.28 21521 1.29 27762 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0 1 0.008741 0.000188 0.001228 0.000036 47.22

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00143 Incl 0.00143 8.28 21521 1.29 27762 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0013 0.00004 0 1 0.001748 0.000038 0.001199 0.000036 37.81

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 15595 1.29 20118 0.00012 320 0.6 192 0.0003 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 15595 1.29 20118 0.00028 320 0.6 192 0.0014 0.00005 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 15595 1.29 20118 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0004 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 15595 1.29 20118 0.00032 320 0.6 192 0.0027 0.00002 0

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 15595 1.29 20118 0.0008 0.00008 0

0.00093 0.00849 0.00025 0 0.000226 0.002427 0.000072 85.02

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21521 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21521 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21521 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.008741 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21521 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001748 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 15595 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 15595 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 15595 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 15595 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 15595 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00267 Incl 0.00267 8.28 21521 35.22 757976 0.00203 320 0.6 192 0.093 0.0033 4006 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00016 Incl 0.00016 8.28 21521 35.22 757976 0.00012 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 121 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00014 Incl 0.00014 8.28 21521 35.22 757976 0.00011 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 107 0 0.008741 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00046 Incl 0.00046 8.28 21521 35.22 757976 0.00035 320 0.6 192 0.032 0.0014 1378 0 0.001748 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 15595 8.41 131154 0.00079 320 0.6 192 0.008 0.0003 351

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 15595 8.41 131154 0.00179 320 0.6 192 0.037 0.0013 1595

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 15595 8.41 131154 0.00029 320 0.6 192 0.012 0.0002 750

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 15595 8.41 131154 0.00210 320 0.6 192 0.085 0.0014 5467

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 15595 8.41 131154 0.011 0.0011 0

0.00758 0.28214 0.00911 13775 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00239 Incl 0.00239 8.28 21521 26.81 576983 0.00138 320 0.6 192 0.113 0.0042 4823 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00041 Incl 0.00041 8.28 21521 26.81 576983 0.00024 320 0.6 192 0.008 0.0004 417 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00012 Incl 0.00012 8.28 21521 26.81 576983 0.00007 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 118 0 0.008741 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00045 Incl 0.00045 8.28 21521 26.81 576983 0.00026 320 0.6 192 0.042 0.0016 1802 0 0.001748 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 15595 26.81 418104 0.00252 320 0.6 192 0.046 0.0016 1978

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 15595 26.81 418104 0.00572 320 0.6 192 0.210 0.0075 8997

broken Rail 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 15595 26.81 418104 0.00092 320 0.6 192 0.049 0.0008 4226

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 15595 26.81 418104 0.00670 320 0.6 192 0.360 0.0058 30794

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 15595 26.81 418104 0.046 0.0046 0

Total 0.01780 0.87583 0.02655 53155 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.02631 1.16645 0.03591 66931 0.000226 0.002427 0.000072 85

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00471 0.29676 0.01126 12772

Intrusion Collisions 0.01122 0.30321 0.01077 12922

Overspeed 0.00125 0.06146 0.00099 4976

Broken Rail 0.00913 0.44786 0.00718 36261

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05716 0.00572 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Rate Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios per million tm) Rate 10 years Track Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.00215563 Incl 0.00216 8.28 21521 1.29 27762 0.00006 0.00003 0.000003 $6 0 0.027661 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.00118708 Incl 0.00119 8.28 21521 1.29 27762 0.00003 0.00001 0.000001 $3 0 0.030653 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.001043191 Incl 0.00104 8.28 21521 1.29 27762 0.00003 0.00000 0.000000 $1

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.30 0.01008 1.07 2781 1.29 3588 0.00004 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.05 0.00817 1.07 2781 1.29 3588 0.00003 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 1.21 3145 1.29 4057 0.00006 0.00001 0.000001 $1

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 1.21 3145 1.29 4057 0.00003 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.80 0.00320 1.07 2781 1.29 3588 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $2

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.21 3145 1.29 4057 0.00006 0.00000 0.000000 $10

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.04 0.05338 1.07 2781 1.29 3588 0.00019 0.00001 0.000001 $29

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 1.21 3145 1.29 4057 0.00023 0.00001 0.000001 $34

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.50 1.07 2781 1.29 3588 0.00008 0.000008 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 1.21 3145 1.29 4057 0.00017 0.000017 $0

Totals 0.0008 0.0003 0.00003 $86 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0044 Incl 0.00440 8.28 21521 8.41 180993 0.00080 0.00088 0.000088 $215 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0011 Incl 0.00114 8.28 21521 8.41 180993 0.00021 0.00019 0.000019 $46 1 0.027661 0.000595 0.000536 0.000054 133.94

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0010 Incl 0.00098 8.28 21521 8.41 180993 0.00018 0.00000 0.000000 $20 1 0.030653 0.000660 0.000000 0.000000 73.89

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.30 0.01008 1.07 2781 8.41 23389 0.00024 0.00005 0.000005 $7

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.05 0.00817 1.07 2781 8.41 23389 0.00019 0.00004 0.000004 $5

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 1.21 3145 8.41 26449 0.00038 0.00009 0.000009 $11

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 1.21 3145 8.41 26449 0.00023 0.00005 0.000005 $6

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.80 0.00320 1.07 2781 8.41 23389 0.00007 0.00001 0.000001 $28

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.21 3145 8.41 26449 0.00042 0.00006 0.000006 $159

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.04 0.05338 1.07 2781 8.41 23389 0.00125 0.00018 0.000018 $468

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 1.21 3145 8.41 26449 0.00147 0.00021 0.000021 $551

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.50 1.07 2781 8.41 23389 0.00077 0.000077 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 1.21 3145 8.41 26449 0.00175 0.000175 $0

Totals 0.00543 0.0043 0.00043 $1,517 0.001255 0.000536 0.000054 207.83

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0024 Incl 0.00240 8.28 21521 26.81 576983 0.00138 0.00235 0.000235 $584 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0007 Incl 0.00068 8.28 21521 26.81 576983 0.00039 0.00055 0.000055 $137 0 0.027661 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0006 Incl 0.00060 8.28 21521 26.81 576983 0.00035 0.00000 0.000000 $61 0 0.030653 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.30 0.01008 1.07 2781 26.81 74562 0.00075 0.00026 0.000026 $33

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.05 0.00817 1.07 2781 26.81 74562 0.00061 0.00021 0.000021 $27

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 1.21 3145 26.81 84318 0.00121 0.00042 0.000042 $53

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 1.21 3145 26.81 84318 0.00073 0.00025 0.000025 $32

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.80 0.00320 1.07 2781 26.81 74562 0.00024 0.00008 0.000008 $140

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.21 3145 26.81 84318 0.00135 0.00047 0.000047 $791

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.04 0.05338 1.07 2781 26.81 74562 0.00398 0.00139 0.000139 $2,332

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 1.21 3145 26.81 84318 0.00469 0.00164 0.000164 $2,747

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.50 1.07 2781 26.81 74562 0.00309 0.000309 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 1.21 3145 26.81 84318 0.00700 0.000700 $0

Totals 0.01568 0.0177 0.00177 $6,937 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.02188 0.0223 0.0022 $8,540 0.001255 0.000536 0.000054 $208

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00342 0.00400 0.00040 1074

Intrusion Collisions 0.00449 0.00140 0.00014 176

Diamond Collisions 0.00125 0.00054 0.00005 208

Overspeed 0.00216 0.00063 0.00006 1129

Broken Rail 0.01180 0.00345 0.00034 6162

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01286 0.00129 0

Grade Crossing Collisions

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

Speed Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew InjuriesCrew Fatalitiesper 10 Years ($) Totals

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) ($)

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 4% 0.336 6.00 7 109165.4233 0.037 320 0.60 192 0.0197 0.0003 1834

Public_other 0.30 4% 0.288 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00471 0.29676 0.01126 12772 76227

Private 0.10 4% 0.096 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.01122 0.30321 0.01077 12922 75544

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 4% 0.576 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000226 0.00243 0.00007 85 544

Public_other 0.50 4% 0.480 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00125 0.06146 0.00099 4976 14078

Private 0.20 4% 0.192 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00913 0.44786 0.00718 36261 102589

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 4% 0.768 6.00 16 249521 0.192 320 0.60 192 0.3863 0.0057 37560 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05716 0.00572 0 22865

Public_other 0.65 4% 0.624 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.53522 1.49510 0.02223 144911 361115

Private 0.30 4% 0.288 6.00 1 15595 0.004 320 0.60 192 0.0091 0.0001 880

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 4% 1.056 6.00 16 249521 0.263 320 0.60 192 0.9410 0.0140 91169 Total, All Scenarios 0.56176 2.66399 0.05821 211927 652962

Public_other 0.80 4% 0.768 6.00 1 15595 0.012 320 0.60 192 0.0428 0.0006 4144

Private 0.30 4% 0.288 6.00 6 93570 0.027 320 0.60 192 0.0962 0.0014 9324 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00342 0.00400 0.00040 1074 2673

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 4% 0.144 1.07 7 19468 0.003 0.00034 0.00001 56 Intrusion Collisions 0.00449 0.00140 0.00014 176 738

Equipped Public_other 0.12 4% 0.115 1.07 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00125 0.00054 0.00005 208 422

Private 0.05 4% 0.048 1.07 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00216 0.00063 0.00006 1129 1381

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 4% 0.288 1.07 16 44498 0.013 0.00320 0.00017 641 Broken Rail 0.01180 0.00345 0.00034 6162 7541

Public_other 0.25 4% 0.240 1.07 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01286 0.00129 0 5142

Private 0.10 4% 0.096 1.07 1 2781 0.000 0.00007 0.00000 13 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07402 0.02323 0.00119 4622 10513

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 4% 0.346 1.07 16 44498 0.015 0.00600 0.00031 1200

Public_other 0.30 4% 0.288 1.07 1 2781 0.001 0.00031 0.00002 62 Total, All Scenarios 0.09716 0.04610 0.00348 13370 28411

Private 0.12 4% 0.115 1.07 6 16687 0.002 0.00075 0.00004 150

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 1.21 7 22015 0.003 0.00040 0.00002 66 0.65892 2.71009 0.06169 225297 681373

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 1.21 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 1.21 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 1.21 16 50320 0.015 0.00377 0.00020 755 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 3000000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 1.21 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 1.21 1 3145 0.000 0.00008 0.00000 16

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 1.21 16 50320 0.018 0.00706 0.00036 1413

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 1.21 1 3145 0.001 0.00037 0.00002 74

Private 0.12 0% 0.120 1.21 6 18870 0.002 0.00088 0.00005 177

0.535 1.495 0.022 144911

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.074 0.023 0.001 4622

Train Type 0.609 1.52 0.02 149533

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, Accident Frequency and Consequencies

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings

Per 10 years

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies by Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Passenger

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Freight

Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total Passenger + Freight

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Freight Passenger

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 40 mph

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Representative Speed (mph) Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Worksheet 3 - B,N,R: - Risk Calculations - PTC 120 Sec. Timeout Case, Bloomington Sub-corridor, Normal Operating State, Rest of Year

Representative Speed 50 mph

Collision Frequency for Passenger + Unequipped Freight Train 

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Collision Scenario (From Coll Matrix)

Data exported to the 

Results Summary 

w orksheet

Mauve cells contain data 

imported from previous 

w orksheet in a group of three 

w orksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating 

state.

b

All train-to-train collision 

frequencies are in units of 

trains in collisions per million 

train miles operated in the 

sub-corridor by all train 

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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN AO AP AQ AR

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track Train Pairs in Train Pair

In Collision Prob (Top Level) In Collision Type

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% Percent Guilty

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.71 0.50 0.50 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.5 0.5 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.70 0.30 0.497 0 0.213 0 Pass-Pass Both Trains

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.22 0.50 0.50 0.11 0 0.11 0 0.5 0.5 0.11 0 0.11 0 0.7 0.3 0.154 0 0.066 0 0.7 0.3 0.154 0 0.066 0 0.40 0.60 0.088 0 0.132 0 Pass-TBE Freight TBE

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 0.7 0.3 0 0 0 0 0.7 0.3 0 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 0 TBE Freight - TBE Freight

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Percent Guilty One Train

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.07 1 0 0.0175 0.0175 0010 0.0175 0.0175 0010 0.028 0.028 0 0 1 0 0.028 0.028 0 0 1.00 0.00 0.0245 0.0245 0 0 0 0 Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n TBE

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0 1 0 0 0.028 00100 0.028 00100 0.0105 0 0 1 0 0 0.0105 0 0.00 1.00 0 0 0.0175 0 0.25 0.25 Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0 1 0 0 0 0.007 0 1 0 0 0 0.007 0 1 0 0 0 0.0035 0 1000 0.0035 0.00 1.00 0 0 0 0.0035 0.05 0.05 Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 0.7 0.3 0 0 0 0 0.7 0.3 0 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.1 TBE Freight - NE Freight

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100% Percent Guilty

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 0.7 0.3 0 0 0 0 0.7 0.3 0 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 NE Freight - NE Freight Neither Train

TBE TBE

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.4825 0.0175 0.493 0.007 1 0.4825 0.0175 0.493 0.007 1 0.75 0.028 0.2185 0.0035 1 0.75 0.028 0.2185 0.0035 1 0.6095 0.0245 0.3625 0.0035 0.4 0.6 Total Probability (checking)

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.395 0.419 0.608 0.249 0.168 0.246 0.406 0.463 0.196

Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100

CP Adjacent (M) 0.322 0.396 0.594 0.230 0.187 0.274 0.498 0.467 0.182

CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100

Plain Track 0.368 0.453 0.678 0.000 0.000 0.032 0.100 0.100 0.068

Diamonds 0.169 0.300 0.299 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.709 0.750 0.551

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track Train Pairs in Train Pair

Equipped Train In Collision Type

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty

Both TBE Pass-Pass 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% Pass-Pass Both TBE

Pass-TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% Pass-TBE Freight

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% TBE Freight - TBE Freight

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 90% 90% 20% 90% 10% 90% 18% 90% 10% 90% 7% Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n One TBE

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 90% 90% 20% 90% 10% 90% 18% 90% 10% 90% 7% 90% 75.04% Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 75.04% Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass

TBE Freight - NE Freight 90% 90% 41% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 50% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 70.87% TBE Freight - NE Freight

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.00% NE Freight - NE Freight Neither TBE

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Ty 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 Collisions/million diamond passes 0.1

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track Train Pairs in Train Pair

Trains in In Collision Type

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0021 0.0021 0.0028 0.0028 0.0057 0.0014 0.0068 0.0017 0.0006 0.0003 Pass-Pass Both TBE

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0004 0.0008 0.0003 0.0009 0.0004 0.0001 0.0001 Pass-TBE Freight

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 TBE Freight - TBE Freight

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0004 0.0001 0.0006 0.0001 0.0011 0.0002 0.0015 0.0000 0.0001 Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n One TBE

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.002500 0.006241 Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.000500 0.001248 Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 0.000000 0.000000 TBE Freight - NE Freight

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 0.000000 NE Freight - NE Freight Neither TBE

Checking tota 0.0025 0.0004 0.0025 0.0002 0.0034 0.0006 0.0034 0.0003 0.0066 0.0011 0.0018 0.0002 0.0079 0.0015 0.0022 0.0002 0.0007 0.0001 0.0003 0.0000 0.00300 0.00749

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals Scenario Totals - Passenger

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0005 0.0029 0.0025 0.0004 0.0007 0.0040 0.0034 0.0006 0.0013 0.0077 0.0066 0.0011 0.0017 0.0094 0.0079 0.0015 0.0002 0.0008 0.0007 0.0001 Pass Loco Hits Loco

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0011 0.0011 0.0014 0.0014 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.0001 0.0001 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.0005 0.0005 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.0004 0.0004 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.002500 0.006241 0.008741 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0002 0.0013 0.0011 0.0002 0.0003 0.0018 0.0015 0.0003 0.0002 0.0010 0.0008 0.0002 0.0002 0.0012 0.0010 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0001 0.0000 0.000500 0.001248 0.001748 Pass Car Hit by Loco

Total 0.0057 0.0025 0.0004 0.0025 0.0002 0.0077 0.0034 0.0006 0.0034 0.0003 0.0097 0.0066 0.0011 0.0018 0.0002 0.0118 0.0079 0.0015 0.0022 0.0002 0.0012 0.0007 0.0001 0.0003 0.0000 0.003000 0.007489 0.010489 Total

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track Train Pairs in Train Pair

Trains in In Collision Type

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 Pass-Pass Both TBE

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0004 0.0008 0.0003 0.0009 0.0004 0.0001 0.0001 Pass-TBE Freight

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TBE Freight - TBE Freight

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0004 0.0001 0.0006 0.0001 0.0011 0.0002 0.0015 0.0000 0.0001 Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n One TBE

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.002500 0.006241 Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.000500 0.001248 Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.002000 0.005826 TBE Freight - NE Freight

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.040000 NE Freight - NE Freight Neither TBE

Checking tota 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0002 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0003 0.0009 0.0011 0.0004 0.0002 0.0011 0.0015 0.0005 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000 0.00500 0.05331

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals Scenario Totals - Freight

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0005 0.0008 0.0004 0.0004 0.0011 0.0005 0.0006 0.0021 0.0009 0.0011 0.0026 0.0011 0.0015 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 Freight Loco Hits Loco

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0002 0.0003 0.00007 0.00021 0.0004 0.00009 0.00028 0.0003 0.00008 0.00018 0.0003 0.00010 0.00021 0.0000 0.00001 0.00002 0.003500 0.024161 0.027661Freight Loco Hits Car

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0001 0.0003 0.00035 0.00000 0.0005 0.00046 0.00000 0.0003 0.00030 0.00000 0.0004 0.00036 0.00000 0.0001 0.00008 0.00000 0.001500 0.029153 0.030653Freight Car Hit By Loco

Total 0.0014 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0002 0.0020 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0003 0.0000 0.0026 0.0009 0.0011 0.0004 0.0002 0.0033 0.0011 0.0015 0.0005 0.0002 0.0003 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000 0.005000 0.053314 0.058314 Total

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0071 0.0800 0.0096 0.1000 0.0123 0.1200 0.0151 0.0015

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 0.83 0.17

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (Not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head On Rear End/Side

Diamond Collisions

Rear End/Side

Rear End/Side

Diamond Collisions

Diamond Collisions

Rear End/Side

Worksheet 2 - B,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - PTC 120 Sec.Timeout Case, Bloomington Sub-corridor, PTC Normal Operating State, Summer

Table 2.1b: Collision Type Distribution - Diamonds

Table 2.3b: Collision Preventability Matrix - Diamonds

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corrid Table 2.5b: Freight Trains in Collisions at Diamond

Table 2.4b: Passenger Trains in Collisions at Diamonds

Diamond Collisions

Rear End/Side

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corridor)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight

Note: The gray cells on these rows are set at 

zero, because in every case, the condition 

represented by the cell does not exist - either 

because there are no unequipped passenger 

trains, or because of the kind of collision defined 

for the row.

Cells highlighted in 

yellow are inputs to 

the risk calculations 

on sheet 3

Cells highlighted in 

yellow are inputs to 

the risk calculations 

on sheet 3

Mauve cells contain data 

imported from previous 

worksheet in a group of three 

worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating 

state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is 

one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each 

collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger 

and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits 

freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a 

function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the 

Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables 

beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all 

collisions between a 

passenger train and an 

unequipped freight train
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y ZAA AB AC AD AE AF

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 7 7 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 16 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500Private 1 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 16 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 1 0 0.650Private 6 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 16 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 1 0.800Private 0 6 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 7 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 16 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain DiamondPrivate 1 0.100 Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain

50 Public_gates_lights 16 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0029 0.0040 0.0077 0.0094 0.0008 0.000000 0.0005 0.0007 0.0013 0.0017 0.0002

Public_other 1 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0011 0.0014 0.0007 0.0009 0.0001 0.000000Private 6 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0003 0.0005 0.0003 0.0004 0.0001 0.008741 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0013 0.0018 0.0010 0.0012 0.0002 0.001748 0.0002 0.0003 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0008 0.0011 0.0021 0.0026 0.0002 0.000000

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0003 0.0004 0.0003 0.0003 0.0000 0.027661

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass-cons HS Pass Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0003 0.0005 0.0003 0.0004 0.0001 0.030653

14.0 88.35 90.55 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 105

15.0 90.55 92.47 CP Adjacent (M) 1.92 40 60 60 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

16.0 92.47 94.97 Siding (M) 2.50 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 40 60 79 105

17.0 94.97 96.81 CP Adjacent (M) 1.84 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 1.29

18.0 96.81 100.28 Plain 3.47 50 79 79 105 40 2.17 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0029 0.0000 0.0020 0.0029

19.0 100.28 102.25 CP Adjacent (M) 1.97 40 60 60 79 50 4.9 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0011 0.0000 0.0002 0.0005

20.0 102.25 102.25 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002

21.0 102.25 104.60 CP Adjacent (M) 2.35 40 60 60 79 60 2.17 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0013 0.0000 0.0003 0.0005

22.0 104.60 106.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.83 50 79 79 105 79 4.9 7.07 2.17

23.0 106.43 108.83 Siding (M) 2.40 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 4.9 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0008 0.0017 0.0009

24.0 108.83 111.36 CP Adjacent (M) 2.53 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002

25.0 111.36 113.30 Plain 1.94 50 79 79 105 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002

26.0 113.30 116.36 Plain 3.06 50 79 79 105 50 0

27.0 116.36 118.83 Plain 2.47 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0

28.0 118.83 121.40 CP Adjacent (M) 2.57 50 79 79 105 60 0 0 0

29.0 121.40 123.57 Siding (M) 2.17 40 60 79 79 79 0 0 0

30.0 123.57 124.38 Siding (M) 0.81 25 40 40 40 105 0 0 0

31.0 124.38 124.86 Siding (M) 0.48 25 40 40 40 Freight 25 0

40 6.2450 8.77

Passenger 40 0 0 0

Length Check 36.5 36.5 60 6.24 6.24 0

79 8.77 8.77 6.24

105 0 0 8.77

Freight 25 0

40 050 0

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 0 0 0

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 0 0 0

Equipped Freight 1.07 1.07 105 0 0 0

Unequipped Freight 0.36 1.21 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 13.14

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 0 0 079 13.14 13.14 0

Timeout (secs) 120.00 105 0 0 13.14

Normal Operating Mode 94.86 Freight 25 1.29

Timeout Mode 0.14 40 8.41Fallback Mode 5.00 50 26.81

Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29

60 8.41 6.24 079 26.81 28.98 8.41

Seats 320.00 105 0 0 26.81

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Checking Totals 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq. Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00293 Incl 0.00293 7.43 6414 1.29 8274 0.00002 320 0.6 192 0.0004 0.00001 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00106 Incl 0.00106 7.43 6414 1.29 8274 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00035 Incl 0.00035 7.43 6414 1.29 8274 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.008741 0.000056 0.000366 0.000011 14.07Pass car hit by Loco 0.00134 Incl 0.00134 7.43 6414 1.29 8274 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0004 0.00001 0 1 0.001748 0.000011 0.000357 0.000011 11.27

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 5179 1.29 6681 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 5179 1.29 6681 0.00009 320 0.6 192 0.0005 0.00002 0Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 5179 1.29 6681 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 5179 1.29 6681 0.00011 320 0.6 192 0.0009 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 5179 1.29 6681 0.0003 0.00003 0

0.00030 0.00268 0.00008 0 0.000067 0.000723 0.000022 25.34

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6414 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6414 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6414 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.008741 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6414 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001748 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 5179 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 5179 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 5179 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 5179 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 5179 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00199 Incl 0.00199 7.43 6414 35.22 225894 0.00045 320 0.6 192 0.021 0.0007 890 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00019 Incl 0.00019 7.43 6414 35.22 225894 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0000 43 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00010 Incl 0.00010 7.43 6414 35.22 225894 0.00002 320 0.6 192 0.000 0.0000 23 0 0.008741 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00033 Incl 0.00033 7.43 6414 35.22 225894 0.00008 320 0.6 192 0.007 0.0003 299 0 0.001748 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 5179 8.41 43559 0.00026 320 0.6 192 0.003 0.0001 117

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 5179 8.41 43559 0.00060 320 0.6 192 0.012 0.0004 530

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 5179 8.41 43559 0.00010 320 0.6 192 0.004 0.0001 249

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 5179 8.41 43559 0.00070 320 0.6 192 0.028 0.0005 1816

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 5179 8.41 43559 0.004 0.0004 0

0.00224 0.07957 0.00249 3966 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00288 Incl 0.00288 7.43 6414 26.81 171954 0.00049 320 0.6 192 0.040 0.0015 1729 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00049 Incl 0.00049 7.43 6414 26.81 171954 0.00008 320 0.6 192 0.003 0.0001 147 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00016 Incl 0.00016 7.43 6414 26.81 171954 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0000 49 0 0.008741 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00054 Incl 0.00054 7.43 6414 26.81 171954 0.00009 320 0.6 192 0.015 0.0006 643 0 0.001748 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 5179 26.81 138859 0.00084 320 0.6 192 0.015 0.0005 657

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 5179 26.81 138859 0.00190 320 0.6 192 0.070 0.0025 2988broken Rail 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 5179 26.81 138859 0.00031 320 0.6 192 0.016 0.0003 1403

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 5179 26.81 138859 0.00223 320 0.6 192 0.120 0.0019 10227

Work Zone Violation 0.50 \ 6.00 5179 26.81 138859 0.015 0.0015 0

Total 0.00597 0.29522 0.00898 17844 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.00851 0.37747 0.01156 21809 0.000067 0.000723 0.000022 25

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00134 0.08863 0.00337 3822

Intrusion Collisions 0.00373 0.10070 0.00358 4292Overspeed 0.00042 0.02041 0.00033 1653Broken Rail 0.00303 0.14874 0.00238 12043Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01898 0.00190 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq. Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.000803813 Incl 0.00080 7.43 6414 1.29 8274 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $1 0 0.027661 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000275786 Incl 0.00028 7.43 6414 1.29 8274 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.030653 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.00034773 Incl 0.00035 7.43 6414 1.29 8274 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.30 0.01008 1.07 924 1.29 1192 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.05 0.00817 1.07 924 1.29 1192 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.36 311 1.29 401 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.36 311 1.29 401 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.80 0.00320 1.07 924 1.29 1192 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $1Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.36 311 1.29 401 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $1

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.04 0.05338 1.07 924 1.29 1192 0.00006 0.00000 0.000000 $10

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.36 311 1.29 401 0.00002 0.00000 0.000000 $3

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.50 1.07 924 1.29 1192 0.00003 0.000003 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.36 311 1.29 401 0.00002 0.000002 $0

Totals 0.0001 0.0001 0.00001 $16 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0017 Incl 0.00173 7.43 6414 8.41 53940 0.00009 0.00010 0.000010 $25 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0003 Incl 0.00026 7.43 6414 8.41 53940 0.00001 0.00001 0.000001 $3 1 0.027661 0.000177 0.000160 0.000016 39.92Frt car hit by Loco 0.0003 Incl 0.00031 7.43 6414 8.41 53940 0.00002 0.00000 0.000000 $2 1 0.030653 0.000197 0.000000 0.000000 22.02

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.30 0.01008 1.07 924 8.41 7768 0.00008 0.00002 0.000002 $2

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.05 0.00817 1.07 924 8.41 7768 0.00006 0.00001 0.000001 $2

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.36 311 8.41 2614 0.00004 0.00001 0.000001 $1

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.36 311 8.41 2614 0.00002 0.00001 0.000001 $1

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.80 0.00320 1.07 924 8.41 7768 0.00002 0.00000 0.000000 $9

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.36 311 8.41 2614 0.00004 0.00001 0.000001 $16

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.04 0.05338 1.07 924 8.41 7768 0.00041 0.00006 0.000006 $155

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.36 311 8.41 2614 0.00015 0.00002 0.000002 $54

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.50 1.07 924 8.41 7768 0.00026 0.000026 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.36 311 8.41 2614 0.00017 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00095 0.0007 0.00005 $271 0.000374 0.000160 0.000016 61.94

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Worksheet 3 - B,N,S: - Risk Calculations - PTC 120 Sec. Timeout Case, Bloomington Sub-corridor, Normal Operating State, Summer

Representative Speed 50 mph

Collision Rate for Passenger + Unequipped Freight Train 

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 105 mph

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Collision Scenario (From Coll Matrix)

Representative Speed 79 mph

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mphRepresentative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed (mph) Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies by Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Passenger

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Freight

Freight Passenger

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Speed and Accident Frequency 

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Per 10 years

Mauve cells contain data imported from worksheet 2 in this group of three worksheets covering this sub-corridor, season and operating state.

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles

All train-to-train collision frequencies are in units of trains in collisions per million train miles operated in the subcorridor by all train types.. 
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN AO AP AQ AR AS AT AU AV AW AX AY AZ BA BB BC BD BE BF

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 5962 5962 0 0.668 175 0 3849 0 9811 0 9811

Appl'n Time (sec) 13.8 40 10552 8484 2068 0.668 131 77 2882 1692 11367 3760 15126Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 14034 11966 2068 0.668 153 77 3366 1692 15332 3760 19092Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 6132 6132 0 1.293 165 0 3640 0 9772 0 9772

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 10197 10197 0 1.293 188 0 4139 0 14336 0 14336

Coefficient B 0 79 14676 12278 2398 1.293 142 68 3115 1499 15393 3896 19289Safety Factor 1.25 105 21778 19381 2398 1.293 171 68 3764 1499 23145 3896 27041

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 120 Frt Red'd Consq 35 5220 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start (MP) End (MP) Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Segment

Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops Number 25 40 50 40 60 79 40 60 79 105 40 60 79 105

(Consq*) (Other)

14.0 88.4 90.6 Plain 2.2 11616 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Bunge 11616 11616 11616 0 0 0 0 0 0 7476 7673 15425 7476 7673 15425 3716 3777 11529 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 14.0 0 0 2.2 0 0 2.2 0 0 2.2 0 0 0 0 2.215.0 90.6 92.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 10137.6 49.0 50.0 50.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 1.0 Donnley 10138 10138 10138 0 0 0 0 0 0 4989 4198 9152 4989 4198 9152 1229 4198 5256 1229 2500 2500 1271 0 0 15.0 0 1.92 0 0 1.92 0 0 1.92 0 0 0 0 1.92 016.0 92.5 95.0 Siding (M) Pontiac (Sig'd) 2.5 13200 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 Pontiac 13200 13200 13200 0 0 0 0 0 0 5892 6089 13841 5892 6089 13841 2132 2193 9945 2132 2193 2500 368 307 0 16.0 0 0 2.5 0 0 2.5 0 0 2.5 0 0 0 0 2.517.0 95.0 96.8 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9715.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 Ocoya 9715 9715 9715 0 0 0 0 0 0 9377 9574 17326 8802 9574 17326 5617 5678 13430 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 17.0 0 0 1.84 0 0 1.84 0 0 1.84 0 0 0 0 1.8418.0 96.8 100.3 Plain 3.5 18321.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 15332 15393 18322 2990 2928 0 0 0 0 770 968 968 770 968 968 0 0 0 0 0 0 770 968 968 18.0 0 0 3.47 0 0 3.47 0 0 3.47 0 0 0 0 3.47

19.0 100.3 102.3 CP Adjacent (M) 2.0 10401.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 0.0 10402 10402 10402 0 0 0 0 0 0 4725 3935 8888 4725 3935 8888 965 3935 4992 965 2500 2500 1535 0 0 19.0 0 1.97 0 0 1.97 0 0 1.97 0 0 0 0 1.97 0

20.0 102.3 102.3 Diamond 0.0 0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 0.0 20.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 021.0 102.3 104.6 CP Adjacent (M) 2.3 12408 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 0.0 11367 12408 12408 1041 0 0 0 0 0 2718 1928 6881 2718 1928 6881 0 1928 2985 0 1928 2500 2500 0 0 21.0 0 2.35 0 0 2.35 0 0 2.35 0 0 0 0 2.35 022.0 104.6 106.4 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9662.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 9662 9662 9662 0 0 0 0 0 0 9429 9627 17379 8802 9627 17379 5670 5731 13483 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 22.0 0 0 1.83 0 0 1.83 0 0 1.83 0 0 0 0 1.8323.0 106.4 108.8 Siding (M) Ballard (Sig'd) 2.4 12672 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 12672 12672 12672 0 0 0 0 0 0 6420 6617 14369 6420 6617 14369 2660 2721 10473 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 23.0 0 0 2.4 0 0 2.4 0 0 2.4 0 0 0 0 2.424.0 108.8 111.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.5 13358.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 13358 13358 13358 0 0 0 0 0 0 5733 5931 13683 5733 5931 13683 1974 2035 9787 1974 2035 2500 526 465 0 24.0 0 0 2.53 0 0 2.53 0 0 2.53 0 0 0 0 2.5325.0 111.4 113.3 Plain 1.9 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 10243 10243 10243 0 0 0 0 0 0 8849 9046 16798 8802 9046 16798 5089 5150 12902 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 25.0 0 0 1.94 0 0 1.94 0 0 1.94 0 0 0 0 1.9426.0 113.3 116.4 Plain 3.1 16156.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 15332 15393 16157 825 764 0 0 0 0 2935 3132 10884 2935 3132 10884 0 0 6988 0 0 2500 2500 2500 0 26.0 0 0 3.06 0 0 3.06 0 0 3.06 0 0 0 0 3.0627.0 116.4 118.8 Plain 2.5 13041.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Towanda 13042 13042 13042 0 0 0 0 0 0 6050 6248 14000 6050 6248 14000 2290 2352 10104 2290 2352 2500 210 148 0 27.0 0 0 2.47 0 0 2.47 0 0 2.47 0 0 0 0 2.4728.0 118.8 121.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.6 13569.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 13570 13570 13570 0 0 0 0 0 0 5522 5720 13472 5522 5720 13472 1762 1824 9576 1762 1824 2500 738 676 0 28.0 0 0 2.57 0 0 2.57 0 0 2.57 0 0 0 0 2.5729.0 121.4 123.6 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 2.2 11457.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 79.0 79.0 1.0 Bloomington 11367 11458 11458 91 0 0 0 0 0 3669 2879 7832 3669 2879 7832 0 2879 3936 0 2500 2500 2500 0 0 29.0 0 2.17 0 0 2.17 0 0 0 2.17 0 0 0 2.17 0

30.0 123.6 124.4 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.8 4276.8 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 1.0 BloomingtonBloomingtom 4277 4277 4277 0 0 0 0 0 0 5534 5495 5495 4401 5495 5495 5534 5495 5495 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 30.0 0.81 0 0 0.81 0 0 0.81 0 0 0 0.81 0 0 0

31.0 124.4 124.9 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.5 2534.4 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 1.0 Bloomington 2534 2534 2534 0 0 0 0 0 0 7277 7237 7237 4401 7042 7042 7277 7237 7237 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 31.0 0.48 0 0 0.48 0 0 0.48 0 0 0 0.48 0 0 0

Check Total 36.5

Train Type Representative 

Speed (mph)

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 1.29 6811

40 2.17 1145850 4.90 25872

Passenger 40 1.29 6811 1.29 $6,811 1.29 6811

60 2.17 11458 0.00 $0 0.00 079 4.90 25872 7.07 $37,330 2.17 11458

105 0.00 $0 4.90 25872

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 0

50 0.00 0

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 $0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 $0 0.00 0

79 0.00 0 0.00 $0 0.00 0

105 0.00 $0 0.00 0

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 6.24 3294750 8.77 46306

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 $0 0.00 0

60 6.24 32947 6.24 $32,947 0.00 079 8.77 46306 8.77 $46,306 6.24 32947

105 0.00 $0 8.77 46306

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 0

50 0.00 0

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 $0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 $0 0.00 0

79 0.00 0 0.00 $0 0.00 0

105 0.00 $0 0.00 0

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 0

50 13.14 69379

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 $0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 $0 0.00 0

79 13.14 69379 13.14 $69,379 0.00 0

105 0.00 $0 13.14 69379

Check Total 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 44140.8Number Siding (M) Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 1926 574 0 44050 44141 44141 91 0 0 0 0 0

Passenger 1742 61 697 0.998 1.000 1.000 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 1786 0 714

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 1.025 1.020 1.021 0.025 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.028 0.029 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 1Number Siding (M) Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 000000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 79252.8Number Siding (M) Segments 7 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 1561 939 0 78211 79253 79253 1041 0 0 0 0 0

Passenger 2255 163 82 0.987 1.000 1.000 0.013 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 2500 0 0

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 1.000 1.040 1.050 0.050 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 1Number Siding (M) Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 000000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 69379.2Number Siding (M) Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 1458 696 346 78211 79253 79253 0 0 0 0 0 0

Passenger 1470 723 306 1.127 1.142 1.142 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 2000 194 306

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 1.129 1.144 1.165 0.028 0.029 0.008 0.014 0.012 0.012 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 22809.6Number Siding (M) Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 16004 14531 16579 4135 0 4795 2671 8278 1435

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.702 0.637 0.727 0.181 0.000 0.210 0.117 0.363 0.063HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.667 0.605 0.691 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.211 0.445 0.160

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Worksheet 1-B,N: IDOT-PTC Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Bloomington Sub-corridor, PTC Timeout Operating State

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance Total Zone Lengths

Sight Distance (ft)

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Length in Feet

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals

Zone C within Sight Distance

Overlap of Zone A2 into

Zone C within Sight Distance

Overlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zoneFraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone B Totals

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (ft) (including free running in TO)

Convent'l Pass Speeds (mph) HS Pass. Speeds - Other (mph)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prevention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop 

Full Prevention

Overlap of Stopping Distance Overlap of Zone A1 Into 

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Bloomington Sub-Corridor: MP 88.3 (Bunge) - MP 124.9 (Bloomington)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Braking Duration (secs)

HS Pass. Speeds - Coll'n Conseq. (mph)

Table 1.4: Breakdown of Segments Lengths by Representative Speed (miles)

Siding (unmon)Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Freight

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Plain Track

Freight Speeds (mph)

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph) Industry Siding 

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating 
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF A

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.5 0.5 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.8 0.2 0.48 0 0.12 0 0.8 0.2 0.48 0 0.12 0 0.70 0.30 0.42 0 0.18 

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.16 0.50 0.50 0.08 0 0.08 0 0.5 0.5 0.08 0 0.08 0 0.7 0.3 0.112 0 0.048 0 0.7 0.3 0.112 0 0.048 0 0.40 0.60 0.064 0 0.096 (Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 000

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.16 1 0 0.04 0.04 0010 0.04 0.04 0010 0.064 0.064 0010 0.064 0.064 0 0 1.00 0.00 0.056 0.056 0 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0100 0.064 00100 0.064 00100 0.024 00100 0.024 0 0.00 1.00 0 0 0.04 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 01000 0.016 01000 0.016 01000 0.008 01000 0.008 0.00 1.00 0 0 0 0.

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.08 0.5 0.5 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.5 0.5 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.7 0.3 0.028 0.028 0.012 0.012 0.7 0.3 0.028 0.028 0.012 0.012 0.50 0.50 0.02 0.02 0.02 0

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 10

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.44 0.06 0.464 0.036 1 0.44 0.06 0.464 0.036 1 0.684 0.092 0.204 0.02 1 0.684 0.092 0.204 0.02 1 0.56 0.076 0.336 0.0

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 1.025 1.020 1.021 0.025 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.028 0.029Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 1.000 1.040 1.050 0.050 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 1.129 1.144 1.165 0.028 0.029 0.008 0.014 0.012 0.012Diamonds 0.667 0.605 0.691 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.211 0.445 0.160

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

Pass-TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% TBE Freight - TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 90% 90% 3% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 1% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 90% 90% 3% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 1

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 1% 90% 0

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 Collisions/million 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0018 0.0018 0.0024 0.0024 0.0048 0.0012 0.0058 0.0014 0.0005 0.0002 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0006 0.0002 0.0007 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0012 0.0002 0.0014 0.0003 0.0032 0.0004 0.0035 0.0000 0.0003 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0000 0.0004 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0022 0.0012 0.0022 0.0005 0.0029 0.0014 0.0030 0.0006 0.0057 0.0032 0.0016 0.0004 0.0068 0.0035 0.0019 0.0005 0.0006 0.0003 0.0003 0.0

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0013 0.0033 0.0022 0.0012 0.0016 0.0043 0.0029 0.0014 0.0035 0.0089 0.0057 0.0032 0.0038 0.0103 0.0068 0.0035 0.0004 0.0009 0.0006 0.0003 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0009 0.0009 0.0012 0.0012 0.0006 0.0006 0.0007 0.0007 0.0001 0.0001 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0002 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003 0.0005 0.0005 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.0004 0.0004 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0005 0.0014 0.0009 0.0005 0.0006 0.0019 0.0013 0.0006 0.0004 0.0011 0.0007 0.0004 0.0005 0.0013 0.0008 0.0005 0.0000 0.0002 0.0001 0.0

Total 0.0060 0.0022 0.0012 0.0022 0.0005 0.0079 0.0029 0.0014 0.0030 0.0006 0.0108 0.0057 0.0032 0.0016 0.0004 0.0126 0.0068 0.0035 0.0019 0.0005 0.0013 0.0006 0.0003 0.0003 0.0

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0006 0.0002 0.0007 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0012 0.0002 0.0014 0.0003 0.0032 0.0004 0.0035 0.0000 0.0003 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0000 0.0004 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0001 0.0012 0.0001 0.0012 0.0002 0.0014 0.0002 0.0016 0.0003 0.0028 0.0001 0.0012 0.0003 0.0030 0.0001 0.0014 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Checking total 0.0005 0.0024 0.0006 0.0017 0.0006 0.0029 0.0007 0.0022 0.0012 0.0060 0.0005 0.0016 0.0014 0.0065 0.0006 0.0019 0.0001 0.0006 0.0001 0.0

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0013 0.0028 0.0005 0.0024 0.0035 0.0006 0.0029 0.0072 0.0012 0.0060 0.0079 0.0014 0.0065 0.0007 0.0001 0.0006 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0005 0.0012 0.00011 0.00108 0.0016 0.00014 0.00144 0.0011 0.00012 0.00100 0.0013 0.00014 0.00120 0.0002 0.00002 0.0

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0002 0.0010 b 0.00044 0.00060 0.0014 0.00059 0.00080 0.0010 0.00036 0.00060 0.0012 0.00043 0.00072 0.0002 0.00008 0.0

Total 0.0051 0.0005 0.0024 0.0006 0.0017 0.0065 0.0006 0.0029 0.0007 0.0022 0.0000 0.0092 0.0012 0.0060 0.0005 0.0016 0.0104 0.0014 0.0065 0.0006 0.0019 0.0011 0.0001 0.0006 0.0001 0.0

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0111 0.0800 0.0144 0.1000 0.0201 0.1200 0.0230 0.0023

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loc

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 0.83 0

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (Not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Sid

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Sid

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Sid

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head On Rear End/Sid

Worksheet 2 - B,T,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - PTC 120 Sec.Timeout Case, Bloomington Sub-corridor, PTC Timeout Operating State, Rest of Year

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corrid 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corridor)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Like Trains Unlike Train

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating 

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y ZAA AB AC AD AE AF

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 7 7 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 16 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500Private 1 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 16 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 1 0 0.650Private 6 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 16 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 1 0.800Private 0 6 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 7 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 16 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain DiamondPrivate 1 0.100 Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain

50 Public_gates_lights 16 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0033 0.0043 0.0089 0.0103 0.0009 0.000000 0.0013 0.0016 0.0035 0.0038 0.0004

Public_other 1 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0009 0.0012 0.0006 0.0007 0.0001 0.000000Private 6 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0004 0.0005 0.0003 0.0004 0.0001 0.016381 0.0002 0.0003 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000

bbbbbb Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0014 0.0019 0.0011 0.0013 0.0002 0.003276 0.0005 0.0006 0.0004 0.0005 0.0000

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0028 0.0035 0.0072 0.0079 0.0007 0.000000

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0012 0.0016 0.0011 0.0013 0.0002 0.034164

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass-cons HS Pass Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0010 0.0014 0.0010 0.0012 0.0002 0.043268

14.0 88.35 90.55 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 10515.0 90.55 92.47 CP Adjacent (M) 1.92 40 60 60 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

16.0 92.47 94.97 Siding (M) 2.50 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 40 60 79 105

17.0 94.97 96.81 CP Adjacent (M) 1.84 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 1.29

18.0 96.81 100.28 Plain 3.47 50 79 79 105 40 2.17 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0033 0.0000 0.0030 0.0024

19.0 100.28 102.25 CP Adjacent (M) 1.97 40 60 60 79 50 4.9 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0009 0.0000 0.0002 0.0004

20.0 102.25 102.25 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0004 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001

21.0 102.25 104.60 CP Adjacent (M) 2.35 40 60 60 79 60 2.17 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0014 0.0000 0.0005 0.0004

22.0 104.60 106.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.83 50 79 79 105 79 4.9 7.07 2.17

23.0 106.43 108.83 Siding (M) 2.40 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 4.9 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0028 0.0060 0.0032

24.0 108.83 111.36 CP Adjacent (M) 2.53 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0012 0.0011 0.0007

25.0 111.36 113.30 Plain 1.94 50 79 79 105 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0010 0.0010 0.0006

26.0 113.30 116.36 Plain 3.06 50 79 79 105 50 0

27.0 116.36 118.83 Plain 2.47 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0

28.0 118.83 121.40 CP Adjacent (M) 2.57 50 79 79 105 60 0 0 0

29.0 121.40 123.57 Siding (M) 2.17 40 60 79 79 79 0 0 0

30.0 123.57 124.38 Siding (M) 0.81 25 40 40 40 105 0 0 0

31.0 124.38 124.86 Siding (M) 0.48 25 40 40 40 Freight 25 0

40 6.2450 8.77

Passenger 40 0 0 0

Length Check 28.6 28.6 60 6.24 6.24 0

79 8.77 8.77 6.24

105 0 0 8.77

Freight 25 0

40 050 0

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 0 0 0

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 0 0 0

Equipped Freight 1.07 1.07 105 0 0 0

Unequipped Freight 0.36 1.21 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 13.14

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 0 0 079 13.14 13.14 0

Timeout (secs) 120.00 105 0 0 13.14

Normal Operating Mode 94.86 Freight 25 1.29

Timeout Mode 0.14 40 8.41Fallback Mode 5.00 50 26.81

Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29

60 8.41 6.24 079 26.81 28.98 8.41

Seats 320.00 105 0 0 26.81

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Check Totals 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq. Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00332 Incl 0.00332 8.28 32 1.29 41 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00090 Incl 0.00090 8.28 32 1.29 41 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00038 Incl 0.00038 8.28 32 1.29 41 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.016381 0.000001 0.000003 0.000000 0.13

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00143 Incl 0.00143 8.28 32 1.29 41 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.003276 0.000000 0.000003 0.000000 0.10

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 23 1.29 30 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 23 1.29 30 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 23 1.29 30 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 23 1.29 30 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.25 6.00 23 1.29 30 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0 0.000001 0.000007 0.000000 0.23

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 32 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 32 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 32 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.016381 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 32 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.003276 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 23 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 23 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 23 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 23 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.25 6.00 23 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00297 Incl 0.00297 8.28 32 35.22 1115 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00001 7 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00016 Incl 0.00016 8.28 32 35.22 1115 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00014 Incl 0.00014 8.28 32 35.22 1115 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.016381 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00046 Incl 0.00046 8.28 32 35.22 1115 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 2 0 0.003276 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 23 8.41 193 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 1

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 23 8.41 193 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 2

Overspeed 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 23 8.41 193 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 3

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 23 8.41 193 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 8

Work Zone Violation 0.25 6.00 23 8.41 193 0.0000 0.00000

0.00001 0.00048 0.00002 23 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00239 Incl 0.00239 8.28 32 26.81 849 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00001 7 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00041 Incl 0.00041 8.28 32 26.81 849 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 1 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00012 Incl 0.00012 8.28 32 26.81 849 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.016381 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00045 Incl 0.00045 8.28 32 26.81 849 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 3 0 0.003276 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 23 26.81 615 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 4

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 23 26.81 615 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0003 0.00001 14

broken Rail 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 23 26.81 615 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00000 16

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 23 26.81 615 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0006 0.00001 47

Work Zone Violation 0.25 6.00 23 26.81 615 0.0001 0.00001 0

Total 0.00003 0.00150 0.00005 91 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.00005 0.00199 0.00006 115 0.000001 0.000007 0.000000 0

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00001 0.00045 0.00002 19

Intrusion Collisions 0.00002 0.00050 0.00002 21

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000 18Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00069 0.00001 56Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00013 0.00001 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq. Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.00284351 Incl 0.00284 8.28 32 1.29 40.83696 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.034164 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.00118708 Incl 0.00119 8.28 32 1.29 40.83696 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.043268 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.001043191 Incl 0.00104 8.28 32 1.29 40.83696 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 1.07 4 1.29 5.27724 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 1.07 4 1.29 5.27724 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 1.21 5 1.29 5.96772 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 1.21 5 1.29 5.96772 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.50 0.00800 1.07 4 1.29 5.27724 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.21 5 1.29 5.96772 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 1.07 4 1.29 5.27724 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 1.21 5 1.29 5.96772 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.25 1.07 4 1.29 5.27724 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 1.21 5 1.29 5.96772 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0060 Incl 0.00605 8.28 32 8.41 266 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0011 Incl 0.00114 8.28 32 8.41 266 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 1 0.034164 0.000001 0.000001 0.000000 0.24Frt car hit by Loco 0.0010 Incl 0.00098 8.28 32 8.41 266 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 1 0.043268 0.000001 0.000000 0.000000 0.15

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 1.07 4 8.41 34 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 1.07 4 8.41 34 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 1.21 5 8.41 39 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 1.21 5 8.41 39 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.50 0.00800 1.07 4 8.41 34 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.21 5 8.41 39 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 1.07 4 8.41 34 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $1

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 1.21 5 8.41 39 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $1

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.25 1.07 4 8.41 34 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 1.21 5 8.41 39 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00001 0.0000 0.00000 $2 0.000002 0.000001 0.000000 0.40

Worksheet 3-B,T,R: - Risk Calculations - PTC Normal Case, Bloomington Subcorridor, Timeout Operating State, Rest of Year

Collision Frequency for Passenger + Unequipped Freight Train 

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 105 mph

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Collision Scenario (From Coll Matrix)

Representative Speed 79 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mphRepresentative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 50 mph

Representative Speed 60 mph

Freight Passenger

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies by Representative Speed (mph)

Segment Type

Siding (unmon)

Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Passenger

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Freight

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Speed, Accident Frequency and Consequencies

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Siding (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Totals All Types

Plain Track

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Passenger Train Occupancy

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one sub-corridor, season and operating state.

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles

All train-to-train collision frequencies are in units of trains in collisions per million train miles operated in the subcorridor by all train types. 
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF A

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.71 0.50 0.50 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.5 0.5 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.70 0.30 0.497 0 0.213 TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.22 0.50 0.50 0.11 0 0.11 0 0.5 0.5 0.11 0 0.11 0 0.7 0.3 0.154 0 0.066 0 0.7 0.3 0.154 0 0.066 0 0.40 0.60 0.088 0 0.132 

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 000

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.07 1 0 0.0175 0.0175 0010 0.0175 0.0175 0010 0.028 0.028 0010 0.028 0.028 0 0 1.00 0.00 0.0245 0.0245 0 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0100 0.028 00100 0.028 00100 0.0105 00100 0.0105 0 0.00 1.00 0 0 0.0175 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 01000 0.007 01000 0.007 01000 0.0035 01000 0.0035 0.00 1.00 0 0 0 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 000

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 10

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.4825 0.0175 0.493 0.007 1 0.4825 0.0175 0.493 0.007 1 0.75 0.028 0.2185 0.0035 1 0.75 0.028 0.2185 0.0035 1 0.6095 0.0245 0.3625 0.0

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 1.025 1.020 1.021 0.025 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.028 0.029Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 1.000 1.040 1.050 0.050 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 1.129 1.144 1.165 0.028 0.029 0.008 0.014 0.012 0.012Diamonds 0.667 0.605 0.691 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.211 0.445 0.160

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

Pass-TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% TBE Freight - TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 90% 90% 3% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 1% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 90% 90% 3% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 1

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0% 90% 1% 90% 0

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 Collisions/million 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0021 0.0021 0.0028 0.0028 0.0057 0.0014 0.0068 0.0017 0.0006 0.0003 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0004 0.0008 0.0003 0.0009 0.0004 0.0001 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0005 0.0001 0.0006 0.0001 0.0014 0.0002 0.0015 0.0000 0.0001 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0025 0.0005 0.0025 0.0002 0.0034 0.0006 0.0034 0.0003 0.0066 0.0014 0.0018 0.0002 0.0079 0.0015 0.0022 0.0002 0.0007 0.0001 0.0003 0.0

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0006 0.0030 0.0025 0.0005 0.0007 0.0040 0.0034 0.0006 0.0015 0.0080 0.0066 0.0014 0.0017 0.0094 0.0079 0.0015 0.0002 0.0008 0.0007 0.0001 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0011 0.0011 0.0014 0.0014 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.0001 0.0001 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.0005 0.0005 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.0004 0.0004 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0002 0.0013 0.0011 0.0002 0.0003 0.0018 0.0015 0.0003 0.0002 0.0010 0.0008 0.0002 0.0002 0.0012 0.0010 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0001 0.0

Total 0.0058 0.0025 0.0005 0.0025 0.0002 0.0077 0.0034 0.0006 0.0034 0.0003 0.0100 0.0066 0.0014 0.0018 0.0002 0.0118 0.0079 0.0015 0.0022 0.0002 0.0012 0.0007 0.0001 0.0003 0.0

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0004 0.0008 0.0003 0.0009 0.0004 0.0001 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0005 0.0001 0.0006 0.0001 0.0014 0.0002 0.0015 0.0000 0.0001 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Checking total 0.0004 0.0005 0.0004 0.0002 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0003 0.0009 0.0014 0.0004 0.0002 0.0011 0.0015 0.0005 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0006 0.0009 0.0004 0.0005 0.0011 0.0005 0.0006 0.0023 0.0009 0.0014 0.0026 0.0011 0.0015 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0002 0.0003 0.00007 0.00021 0.0004 0.00009 0.00028 0.0003 0.00008 0.00018 0.0003 0.00010 0.00021 0.0000 0.00001 0.0

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0001 0.0003 b 0.00035 0.00000 0.0005 0.00046 0.00000 0.0003 0.00030 0.00000 0.0004 0.00036 0.00000 0.0001 0.00008 0.0

Total 0.0015 0.0004 0.0005 0.0004 0.0002 0.0020 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0003 0.0000 0.0029 0.0009 0.0014 0.0004 0.0002 0.0033 0.0011 0.0015 0.0005 0.0002 0.0003 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0073 0.0800 0.0096 0.1000 0.0128 0.1200 0.0151 0.0015

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loc

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 0.83 0

Like Trains Unlike Train

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Worksheet 2 - B,T,S Collision Frequencies Calculation - PTC 120 Sec.Timeout Case, Bloomington Sub-corridor, PTC Timeout Operating State, Summer

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corrid 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corridor)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head On Rear End/Sid

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Sid

Head On Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Sid

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Sid

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On

Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (Not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Collision Distribution Head On Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Mauve cells contain data imported from Worksheet 1 in this group of three worksheets covering this sub-corridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF A

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.80 0.50 0.50 0.4 0 0.4 0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0 0.4 0 0.8 0.2 0.64 0 0.16 0 0.8 0.2 0.64 0 0.16 0 0.70 0.30 0.56 0 0.24 

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.15 0.50 0.50 0.075 0 0.075 0 0.5 0.5 0.075 0 0.075 0 0.7 0.3 0.105 0 0.045 0 0.7 0.3 0.105 0 0.045 0 0.40 0.60 0.06 0 0.09 

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 000

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.05 1 0 0.0125 0.0125 0010 0.0125 0.0125 0010 0.02 0.02 0010 0.02 0.02 0 0 1.00 0.00 0.0175 0.0175 0 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0100 0.02 00100 0.02 00100 0.0075 00100 0.0075 0 0.00 1.00 0 0 0.0125 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 01000 0.005 01000 0.005 01000 0.0025 01000 0.0025 0.00 1.00 0 0 0 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 000

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 10

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.4875 0.0125 0.495 0.005 1 0.4875 0.0125 0.495 0.005 1 0.765 0.02 0.2125 0.0025 1 0.765 0.02 0.2125 0.0025 1 0.6375 0.0175 0.3425 0.0

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.326 0.289 0.618 0.263 0.263 0.263 0.461 0.499 0.169Siding (U) 0.428 0.424 0.595 0.166 0.172 0.291 0.456 0.453 0.164CP Adjacent (M) 0.416 0.414 0.585 0.218 0.226 0.220 0.415 0.410 0.245CP Adjacent (U) 0.414 0.389 0.680 0.325 0.250 0.280 0.311 0.411 0.089Plain Track 0.120 0.119 0.169 0.000 0.000 0.024 0.100 0.100 0.076Diamonds 0.276 0.296 0.296 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.676 0.754 0.584

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

Pass-TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% TBE Freight - TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 90% 90% 17% 90% 16% 90% 25% 90% 9% 90% 8% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 90% 90% 17% 90% 16% 90% 25% 90% 9% 90% 8

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 90% 90% 46% 90% 0% 90% 46% 90% 0% 90% 42% 90% 0% 90% 31% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 Collisions/million 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0024 0.0024 0.0032 0.0032 0.0064 0.0016 0.0077 0.0019 0.0007 0.0003 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0005 0.0002 0.0006 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0003 0.0001 0.0004 0.0001 0.0008 0.0001 0.0011 0.0000 0.0001 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0027 0.0003 0.0027 0.0002 0.0036 0.0004 0.0036 0.0002 0.0070 0.0008 0.0019 0.0001 0.0084 0.0011 0.0022 0.0002 0.0007 0.0001 0.0003 0.0

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0003 0.0030 0.0027 0.0003 0.0005 0.0040 0.0036 0.0004 0.0009 0.0078 0.0070 0.0008 0.0012 0.0095 0.0084 0.0011 0.0001 0.0008 0.0007 0.0001 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0012 0.0012 0.0016 0.0016 0.0008 0.0008 0.0010 0.0010 0.0001 0.0001 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0002 0.0014 0.0012 0.0002 0.0002 0.0019 0.0017 0.0002 0.0001 0.0010 0.0009 0.0001 0.0002 0.0012 0.0010 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 0.0

Total 0.0058 0.0027 0.0003 0.0027 0.0002 0.0077 0.0036 0.0004 0.0036 0.0002 0.0098 0.0070 0.0008 0.0019 0.0001 0.0119 0.0084 0.0011 0.0022 0.0002 0.0012 0.0007 0.0001 0.0003 0.0

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0005 0.0002 0.0006 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0003 0.0001 0.0004 0.0001 0.0008 0.0001 0.0011 0.0000 0.0001 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Checking total 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0002 0.0006 0.0008 0.0003 0.0001 0.0008 0.0011 0.0003 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0003 0.0006 0.0003 0.0003 0.0008 0.0004 0.0004 0.0014 0.0006 0.0008 0.0018 0.0008 0.0011 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0002 0.0002 0.00005 0.00015 0.0003 0.00006 0.00020 0.0002 0.00006 0.00013 0.0002 0.00007 0.00015 0.0000 0.00001 0.0

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0001 0.0002 b 0.00024 0.00000 0.0003 0.00032 0.00000 0.0002 0.00021 0.00000 0.0002 0.00025 0.00000 0.0001 0.00005 0.0

Total 0.0010 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002 0.0013 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0002 0.0000 0.0018 0.0006 0.0008 0.0003 0.0001 0.0023 0.0008 0.0011 0.0003 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0068 0.0800 0.0091 0.1000 0.0115 0.1200 0.0142 0.0014

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loc

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 0.83 0

Like Trains Unlike Train

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Worksheet 2 - Sp,N,S: Collision Frequencies Calculation - PTC 120 Sec. Timeout Case, Springfield Sub-corridor PTC Normal Operating State, Summer

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corrid 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corridor)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head On Rear End/Sid

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Sid

Head On Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Sid

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Sid

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On

Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (Not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Collision Distribution Head On Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Mauve cells contain data imported from Worksheet ! in a group of worksheets covering one sub-corridor, and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN AO AP AQ AR AS AT 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 1928 1928 0 0.668 65 0 1429 0 3356 0 3356

Appl'n Time (sec) 13.8 40 4097 2030 2068 0.668 21 77 462 1692 2491 3760 6251Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 5965 3898 2068 0.668 43 77 945 1692 4843 3760 8603Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 1732 1732 0 1.293 55 0 1219 0 2951 0 2951

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 3597 3597 0 1.293 78 0 1719 0 5316 0 5316

Coefficient B 0 79 5986 3588 2398 1.293 32 68 695 1499 4283 3896 8179Safety Factor 1.25 105 10228 7831 2398 1.293 61 68 1344 1499 9175 3896 13071

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 10 Frt Red'd Consq 35 1370 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start (MP) End (MP) Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Segment

Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops Number 25 40 

(Consq*) (Other)

32.0 124.9 126.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.6 8659.2 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 Bloom Yard 3356 2951 2951 0 0 0 5303 5708 5708 000000000000000 32.0 1.64 0 

33.0 126.5 126.5 Diamond 0.0 0.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0

34.0 126.5 128.8 CP Adjacent (M) 2.3 11932.8 30.0 50.0 50.0 25.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 3356 5316 4283 0 0 3896 8576 6617 3754 000000000000000 34.0 2.26 0 

35.0 128.8 131.0 Plain 2.2 11616.0 60.0 79.0 90.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4843 4283 4283 3896 3896 3896 2877 3437 3437 000000000000000 35.0 0 0 

36.0 131.0 133.7 Plain 2.8 14572.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 60.0 105.0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 3896 5834 6394 1502 000000000000000 36.0 0 0 

37.0 133.7 136.9 Plain 3.2 16790.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4843 4283 9175 3760 3896 3896 8188 8612 3720 000000000000000 37.0 0 0 

38.0 136.9 138.6 CP Adjacent (M) 1.7 9134.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4843 4283 9134 3896 3896 0 395 956 0 0 0 3936 0 0 1540 0 0 40 0 0 40 0 0 2460 38.0 0 0 

39.0 138.6 141.3 Siding (M) McLean (sig'd) 2.7 14097.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 McLean 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 3896 5358 5919 1027 000000000000000 39.0 0 0 

40.0 141.3 143.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.0 10824.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 1649 2085 2645 0 0 0 2247 0 0 1540 0 0 000000 2247 40.0 0 0 

41.0 143.4 148.3 Plain 5.0 26136.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 60.0 79.0 79.0 2.0 Fertilizer, Atlanta 4843 5316 4283 0 0 3896 21293 20820 17957 000000000000000 41.0 0 0 

42.0 148.3 151.0 Plain 2.7 14044.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 E Lincoln Grain 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 3896 5306 5866 974 000000000000000 42.0 0 0 

43.0 151.0 153.6 CP Adjacent (U) 2.6 13728.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Kruger 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 3896 4989 5549 657 000000000000000 43.0 0 0 

44.0 153.6 155.6 Siding (U) Elkhart (Unsig'd) 2.0 10612.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 4843 5316 4283 0 0 3896 5770 5297 2434 000000000000000 44.0 0 0 

45.0 155.6 155.6 Diamond 0.0 0.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0

46.0 155.6 157.3 CP Adjacent (U) 1.7 8923.2 50.0 70.0 70.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 1.0 Havana Ind. Lincoln 4843 5316 4283 3760 0 3896 320 3608 744 000000000000000 46.0 0 0 

47.0 157.3 160.1 Plain 2.8 14731.2 60.0 79.0 90.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4843 4283 4283 3760 3896 3896 6128 6552 6552 000000000000000 47.0 0 0 

48.0 160.1 162.1 Plain 2.1 10876.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4843 4283 9175 3760 3896 1702 2274 2698 0 0 0 2194 0 0 1540 0 0 000000 2194 48.0 0 0 

49.0 162.1 164.0 Plain 1.9 10190.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4843 4283 9175 3760 3896 1016 1588 2012 0 0 0 2880 0 0 1540 0 0 000000 2500 49.0 0 0 

50.0 164.0 166.2 Plain 2.1 11193.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4843 4283 9175 3760 3896 2019 2591 3015 0 0 0 1877 0 0 1540 0 0 000000 1877 50.0 0 0 

51.0 166.2 168.3 CP Adjacent (U) 2.2 11510.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Elkhart Grain 4843 4283 9175 3760 3896 2336 2908 3332 0 0 0 1560 0 0 15400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1560 51.0 0 0 

52.0 168.3 170.4 Siding (U) Elkhart (Unsig'd) 2.1 10876.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4843 4283 9175 3760 3896 1702 2274 2698 0 0 0 2194 0 0 1540 0 0000000 2194 52.0 0 0 

53.0 170.4 172.3 CP Adjacent (U) 1.9 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4843 4283 9175 3760 3896 1069 1640 2064 0 0 0 2828 0 0 1540 0 0 000000 2500 53.0 0 0 

54.0 172.3 175.8 Plain 3.5 18480.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4843 4283 9175 3760 3896 3896 9877 10301 5409 000000000000000 54.0 0 0 

55.0 175.8 179.5 Plain 3.7 19272.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4843 4283 4283 3760 3896 3896 10669 11093 11093 000000000000000 55.0 0 0 

56.0 179.5 181.0 CP Adjacent (M) 1.5 7920.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4843 4283 4283 3077 3637 3637 0 0 0 683 259 259 683 259 259 0 0 0 0 0 0683 259 259 56.0 0 0 

Check Total 56.1

Train Type Representative 

Speed (mph)

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 2.7 14097.6

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 2.7 14097.6 2.7 14097.6 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 2.7 14097.6

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 4.1 21489.6

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 2.0 10612.8 2.0 10612.8 0.0 079 2.1 10876.8 2.1 10876.8 2.0 10612.8

105 0.0 0 2.1 10876.8

Freight 25 3.9 20592

40 0.0 050 5.3 27878.4

Passenger 40 1.6 8659.2 1.6 8659.2 1.6 8659.2

60 2.3 11932.8 2.3 11932.8 0.0 079 5.3 27878.4 5.3 27878.4 3.8 19852.8

105 0.0 0 3.8 19958.4

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 8.4 44404.8

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 1.7 8923.2 1.7 8923.2 0.0 079 6.7 35481.6 6.7 35481.6 1.7 8923.2

105 0.0 0 6.7 35481.6

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 31.8 167904

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 5.0 26136 2.8 14572.8 0.0 079 26.9 141768 29.0 153331.2 13.6 71755.2

105 0.0 0 18.2 96148.8

Check Total 56.1 56.1 56.1 56.1

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 14097.6Number Siding (M) Segments 1 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 4843 4283 9175 3896 3896 3896 5358 5919 1027

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.344 0.304 0.651 0.276 0.276 0.276 0.380 0.420 0.073HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.326 0.289 0.618 0.263 0.263 0.263 0.461 0.499 0.169 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 21489.6Number Siding (M) Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 9686 9598 13457 3760 3896 5598 8044 7995 2434

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.451 0.447 0.626 0.175 0.181 0.261 0.374 0.372 0.113HS Pass 0 1097 1403

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.428 0.424 0.595 0.166 0.172 0.291 0.456 0.453 0.164 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 48470.4Number Siding (M) Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 137 2363 21242 21114 29825 10869 11430 9183 16359 15926 9462

Passenger 0 52 2448 0.438 0.436 0.615 0.224 0.236 0.189 0.338 0.329 0.195HS Pass 8 993 1499

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.416 0.414 0.585 0.218 0.226 0.220 0.415 0.410 0.245 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 44404.8Number Siding (M) Segments 4 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 19372 18163 31807 15175 11688 11197 9857 14553 1402

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.436 0.409 0.716 0.342 0.263 0.252 0.222 0.328 0.032HS Pass 0 1015 1485

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.414 0.389 0.680 0.325 0.250 0.280 0.311 0.411 0.089 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 167904Number Siding (M) Segments 11 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 21242 21114 29825 0 0 0 0 0 0

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.127 0.126 0.178 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 597 1903

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.120 0.119 0.169 0.000 0.000 0.024 0.100 0.100 0.076 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 40128.0Number Siding (M) Segments 4 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 11651 12523 12496 4135 0 7193 24342 27605 20439

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.290 0.312 0.311 0.103 0.000 0.179 0.607 0.688 0.509HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.276 0.296 0.296 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.676 0.754 0.584

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Worksheet 1-Sp,N: IDOT-PTC Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Springfield Sub-corridor, PTC Normal Operating State

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance Total Zone Lengths

Sight Distance (ft)

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Length in Feet

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals

Zone C within Sight Distance

Overlap of Zone A2 into

Zone C within Sight Distance

Overlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zoneFraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone B Totals

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (ft) (including free running in TO)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prevention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop 

Full Prevention

Overlap of Stopping Distance Overlap of Zone A1 Into 

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Springfield Sub-Corridor: MP 124.9 (Bloomington) - MP 181.0 (Ridgely)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Braking Duration (secs)

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Freight

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Plain Track

Freight Spee

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed mph) Industry Siding

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF A

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.62 0.50 0.50 0.31 0 0.31 0 0.5 0.5 0.31 0 0.31 0 0.8 0.2 0.496 0 0.124 0 0.8 0.2 0.496 0 0.124 0 0.70 0.30 0.434 0 0.186 

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.12 0.50 0.50 0.06 0 0.06 0 0.5 0.5 0.06 0 0.06 0 0.7 0.3 0.084 0 0.036 0 0.7 0.3 0.084 0 0.036 0 0.40 0.60 0.048 0 0.072 (Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 000

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.18 1 0 0.045 0.045 0010 0.045 0.045 0010 0.072 0.072 0010 0.072 0.072 0 0 1.00 0.00 0.063 0.063 0 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0100 0.072 00100 0.072 00100 0.027 00100 0.027 0 0.00 1.00 0 0 0.045 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 01000 0.018 01000 0.018 01000 0.009 01000 0.009 0.00 1.00 0 0 0 0.

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.05 0.5 0.5 0.0125 0.0125 0.0125 0.0125 0.5 0.5 0.0125 0.0125 0.0125 0.0125 0.7 0.3 0.0175 0.0175 0.0075 0.0075 0.7 0.3 0.0175 0.0175 0.0075 0.0075 0.50 0.50 0.0125 0.0125 0.0125 0.0

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 10

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.03 0.5 0.5 0 0.015 0 0.015 0.5 0.5 0 0.015 0 0.015 0.7 0.3 0 0.021 0 0.009 0.7 0.3 0 0.021 0 0.009 0.50 0.50 0 0.015 0 0.0TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.4275 0.0725 0.4545 0.0455 1 0.4275 0.0725 0.4545 0.0455 1 0.6695 0.1105 0.1945 0.0255 1 0.6695 0.1105 0.1945 0.0255 1 0.5575 0.0905 0.3155 0.0

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.326 0.289 0.618 0.263 0.263 0.263 0.461 0.499 0.169Siding (U) bbbbbbbbbbb 0.424 0.595 0.166 0.172 0.291 0.456 0.453 0.164

CP Adjacent (M) 0.416 0.414 0.585 0.218 0.226 0.220 0.415 0.410 0.245CP Adjacent (U) 0.414 0.389 0.680 0.325 0.250 0.280 0.311 0.411 0.089Plain Track 0.120 0.119 0.169 0.000 0.000 0.024 0.100 0.100 0.076Diamonds 0.276 0.296 0.296 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.676 0.754 0.584

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

Pass-TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% TBE Freight - TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 90% 90% 17% 90% 16% 90% 25% 90% 9% 90% 8% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 90% 90% 17% 90% 16% 90% 25% 90% 9% 90% 8

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 90% 90% 46% 90% 0% 90% 46% 90% 0% 90% 42% 90% 0% 90% 31% 90% 0% 90% 10% 90% 0

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 Collisions/million 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0019 0.0019 0.0025 0.0025 0.0050 0.0012 0.0060 0.0015 0.0005 0.0002 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0004 0.0002 0.0005 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0011 0.0002 0.0015 0.0004 0.0027 0.0004 0.0039 0.0000 0.0003 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0022 0.0011 0.0023 0.0005 0.0029 0.0015 0.0030 0.0007 0.0057 0.0027 0.0016 0.0005 0.0069 0.0039 0.0019 0.0005 0.0006 0.0003 0.0003 0.0

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0013 0.0033 0.0022 0.0011 0.0017 0.0044 0.0029 0.0015 0.0031 0.0085 0.0057 0.0027 0.0044 0.0108 0.0069 0.0039 0.0004 0.0009 0.0006 0.0003 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0009 0.0009 0.0012 0.0012 0.0006 0.0006 0.0007 0.0007 0.0001 0.0001 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0002 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003 0.0005 0.0005 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0005 0.0015 0.0010 0.0005 0.0007 0.0020 0.0013 0.0007 0.0005 0.0011 0.0007 0.0005 0.0005 0.0013 0.0008 0.0005 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0

Total 0.0061 0.0022 0.0011 0.0023 0.0005 0.0081 0.0029 0.0015 0.0030 0.0007 0.0105 0.0057 0.0027 0.0016 0.0005 0.0132 0.0069 0.0039 0.0019 0.0005 0.0013 0.0006 0.0003 0.0003 0.0

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0004 0.0002 0.0005 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0011 0.0002 0.0015 0.0004 0.0027 0.0004 0.0039 0.0000 0.0003 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0001 0.0004 0.0001 0.0008 0.0001 0.0005 0.0001 0.0010 0.0002 0.0010 0.0001 0.0008 0.0002 0.0014 0.0001 0.0009 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0009 0.0009 0.0012 0.0012 0.0021 0.0009 0.0025 0.0011 0.0002 0.0

Checking total 0.0004 0.0024 0.0005 0.0022 0.0005 0.0032 0.0006 0.0029 0.0010 0.0058 0.0004 0.0021 0.0011 0.0079 0.0005 0.0025 0.0001 0.0007 0.0001 0.0

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0013 0.0028 0.0004 0.0024 0.0038 0.0005 0.0032 0.0068 0.0010 0.0058 0.0090 0.0011 0.0079 0.0007 0.0001 0.0007 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0005 0.0014 0.00007 0.00137 0.0019 0.00010 0.00182 0.0014 0.00008 0.00128 0.0016 0.00010 0.00153 0.0002 0.00001 0.0

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0002 0.0012 b 0.00040 0.00083 0.0016 0.00053 0.00110 0.0011 0.00031 0.00083 0.0014 0.00037 0.00099 0.0002 0.00007 0.0

Total 0.0055 0.0004 0.0024 0.0005 0.0022 0.0073 0.0005 0.0032 0.0006 0.0029 0.0000 0.0093 0.0010 0.0058 0.0004 0.0021 0.0120 0.0011 0.0079 0.0005 0.0025 0.0012 0.0001 0.0007 0.0001 0.0

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0116 0.0800 0.0155 0.1000 0.0197 0.1200 0.0253 0.0025

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loc

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 0.83 0

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (Not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Sid

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Sid

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Sid

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head On Rear End/Sid

Worksheet 2 - Sp,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - PTC 120 Sec. Timeout Case, Springfield Sub-corridor PTC Normal Operating State, Rest of Year

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corrid 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corridor)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Like Trains Unlike Train

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating 

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y ZAA AB AC AD AE AF

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 2

Public_other 0 0 0.300Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 14 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 5 1 0.650Private 5 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 13 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 4 0.800Private 0 4 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 0 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 2

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain DiamondPrivate 0 0.100 Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain

50 Public_gates_lights 26 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0033 0.0044 0.0085 0.0108 0.0009 0.000000 0.0013 0.0017 0.0031 0.0044 0.0004

Public_other 5 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0009 0.0012 0.0006 0.0007 0.0001 0.000000Private 5 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0004 0.0005 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.008662 0.0002 0.0003 0.0001 0.0002 0.0000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0015 0.0020 0.0011 0.0013 0.0002 0.001732 0.0005 0.0007 0.0005 0.0005 0.0001

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0028 0.0038 0.0068 0.0090 0.0007 0.000000

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass-cons HS Pass Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0014 0.0019 0.0014 0.0016 0.0002 0.027970

bbb 124.86 126.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.64 25 40 40 40 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0012 0.0016 0.0011 0.0014 0.0002 0.030899

33 126.5 126.5 Diamond 0 25 40 40 40

34 126.5 128.76 CP Adjacent (M) 2.26 25 60 60 79

35 128.76 130.96 Plain 2.2 50 79 79 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

36 130.96 133.72 Plain 2.76 50 79 60 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 40 60 79 105

37 133.72 136.9 Plain 3.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0

38 136.9 138.63 CP Adjacent (M) 1.73 50 79 79 105 40 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0085 0.0000 0.0023 0.0025

39 138.63 141.3 Siding (M) 2.67 50 79 79 105 50 2.67 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0006 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004

40 141.3 143.35 CP Adjacent (M) 2.05 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001

41 143.35 148.3 Plain 4.95 50 60 79 79 60 0 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0011 0.0000 0.0004 0.0005

42 148.3 150.96 Plain 2.66 50 79 79 105 79 2.67 2.67 0

43 150.96 153.56 CP Adjacent (U) 2.6 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.67 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0068 0.0000 0.0030

44 153.56 155.57 Siding (U) 2.01 50 60 60 79 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0014 0.0000 0.0008

45 155.57 155.57 Diamond 0 40 40 40 40 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0011 0.0000 0.0007

46 155.57 157.26 CP Adjacent (U) 1.69 50 60 60 79 50 4.07

47 157.26 160.05 Plain 2.79 50 79 79 79 Passenger 40 0 0 0

48 160.05 162.11 Plain 2.06 50 79 79 105 60 2.01 2.01 0

49 162.11 164.04 Plain 1.93 50 79 79 105 79 2.06 2.06 2.01

50 164.04 166.16 Plain 2.12 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.06

51 166.16 168.34 CP Adjacent (U) 2.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 3.9

52 168.34 170.4 Siding (U) 2.06 50 79 79 105 40 0

53 170.4 172.34 CP Adjacent (U) 1.94 50 79 79 105 50 5.28

54 172.34 175.84 Plain 3.5 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

55 175.84 179.49 Plain 3.65 50 79 79 79 60 2.26 2.26 0

56 179.49 180.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.5 50 79 79 79 79 5.28 5.28 3.76

105 0 0 3.78

Freight 25 0

40 050 8.41

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 1.69 1.69 0

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 6.72 6.72 1.69

Equipped Freight 0.86 0.86 105 0 0 6.72

Unequipped Freight 0.87 2.30 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91 274 50 31.8

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 4.95 2.76 079 26.85 29.04 13.59

Timeout (secs) 120 105 0 0 18.21

Normal Operating Mode 94.86 Freight 25 3.9

Timeout Mode 0.14 40 0Fallback Mode 5 50 52.23

Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

60 10.91 8.72 079 43.58 45.77 21.05

Seats 320 105 0 0 33.44

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Check Totals 56.13 56.13 56.13 56.13

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq. Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00845 Incl 0.00845 9.16 23808 1.64 39046 0.00033 320 0.6 192 0.0053 0.00013 0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00062 Incl 0.00062 9.16 23808 1.64 39046 0.00002 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00000 0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00027 Incl 0.00027 9.16 23808 1.64 39046 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0 2 0.008662 0.000412 0.002692 0.000079 103.52

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00111 Incl 0.00111 9.16 23808 1.64 39046 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0014 0.00004 0 2 0.001732 0.000082 0.002629 0.000079 82.90

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 15595 1.64 25576 0.00015 320 0.6 192 0.0004 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 15595 1.64 25576 0.00035 320 0.6 192 0.0017 0.00006 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 15595 1.64 25576 0.00006 320 0.6 192 0.0005 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 15595 1.64 25576 0.00041 320 0.6 192 0.0035 0.00003 0

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 15595 1.64 25576 0.0011 0.00011 0

0.00138 0.01400 0.00039 1 0.000495 0.005322 0.000158 186.43

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23808 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23808 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23808 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.008662 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23808 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001732 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 15595 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 15595 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 15595 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 15595 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 15595 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00232 Incl 0.00232 9.16 23808 54.49 1297323 0.00301 320 0.6 192 0.139 0.0049 5952 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00014 Incl 0.00014 9.16 23808 54.49 1297323 0.00018 320 0.6 192 0.003 0.0002 179 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00012 Incl 0.00012 9.16 23808 54.49 1297323 0.00016 320 0.6 192 0.003 0.0001 156 0 0.008662 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00041 Incl 0.00041 9.16 23808 54.49 1297323 0.00053 320 0.6 192 0.048 0.0021 2077 0 0.001732 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 15595 21.05 328276 0.00198 320 0.6 192 0.020 0.0007 879

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 15595 21.05 328276 0.00449 320 0.6 192 0.093 0.0033 3992

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 15595 21.05 328276 0.00072 320 0.6 192 0.029 0.0005 1878

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 15595 21.05 328276 0.00526 320 0.6 192 0.212 0.0034 13684

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 15595 21.05 328276 0.027 0.0027 0

0.01633 0.57499 0.01786 28796 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00254 Incl 0.00254 9.16 23808 33.44 796155 0.00202 320 0.6 192 0.165 0.0062 7054 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00043 Incl 0.00043 9.16 23808 33.44 796155 0.00034 320 0.6 192 0.011 0.0005 599 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00009 Incl 0.00009 9.16 23808 33.44 796155 0.00007 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 126 0 0.008662 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00046 Incl 0.00046 9.16 23808 33.44 796155 0.00036 320 0.6 192 0.059 0.0022 2541 0 0.001732 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 15595 33.44 521499 0.00314 320 0.6 192 0.058 0.0020 2468

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 15595 33.44 521499 0.00713 320 0.6 192 0.262 0.0093 11222

broken Rail 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 15595 33.44 521499 0.00115 320 0.6 192 0.062 0.0010 5271

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 15595 33.44 521499 0.00836 320 0.6 192 0.449 0.0072 38409

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 15595 33.44 521499 0.057 0.0057 0

Total 0.02258 1.12453 0.03434 67690 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.04029 1.71352 0.05259 96487 0.000495 0.005322 0.000158 186

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00708 0.43706 0.01653 18685

Intrusion Collisions 0.01724 0.43523 0.01544 18561Overspeed 0.00193 0.09127 0.00146 7148Broken Rail 0.01403 0.66513 0.01067 52093Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.08482 0.00848 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq. Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.006793223 Incl 0.00679 9.16 23808 3.9 92853 0.00063 0.00027 0.000027 $66 0 0.027970 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.001357152 Incl 0.00136 9.16 23808 3.9 92853 0.00013 0.00004 0.000004 $11 0 0.030899 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00Frt car hit by Loco 0.00113221 Incl 0.00113 9.16 23808 3.9 92853 0.00011 0.00000 0.000000 $5

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.30 0.01008 0.86 2235 3.9 8718 0.00009 0.00001 0.000001 $1

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.05 0.00817 0.86 2235 3.9 8718 0.00007 0.00001 0.000001 $1Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 2.30 5978 3.9 23315 0.00034 0.00003 0.000003 $4Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 2.30 5978 3.9 23315 0.00020 0.00002 0.000002 $2

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.80 0.00320 0.86 2235 3.9 8718 0.00003 0.00000 0.000000 $4Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 2.30 5978 3.9 23315 0.00037 0.00002 0.000002 $56

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.04 0.05338 0.86 2235 3.9 8718 0.00047 0.00003 0.000003 $70

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 2.30 5978 3.9 23315 0.00130 0.00007 0.000007 $194Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.50 0.86 2235 3.9 8718 0.00018 0.000018 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 2.30 5978 3.9 23315 0.00098 0.000098 $0

Totals 0.0037 0.0017 0.00017 $414 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23808 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23808 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.027970 0.001332 0.001199 0.000120 299.66Frt car hit by Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23808 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.030899 0.001471 0.000000 0.000000 164.79

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.30 0.01008 0.86 2235 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.05 0.00817 0.86 2235 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 2.30 5978 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 2.30 5978 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.80 0.00320 0.86 2235 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 2.30 5978 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.04 0.05338 0.86 2235 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 2.30 5978 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.000 0.50 0.86 2235 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 2.30 5978 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.002803 0.001199 0.000120 464.45

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 60 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Worksheet 3 - Sp,N,R: - Risk Calculations - PTC 120 Sec. Timeout Case, Springfield Subcorridor, Normal Operating State, Rest of Year

Collision Frequency for Passenger + Unequipped Freight Train 

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Collision Scenario (From Coll Matrix)

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Representative Speed 79 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mphRepresentative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 50 mph

b

Passenger Train Occupancy

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies by Representative Speed (mph)

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Passenger

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Freight

Freight Passenger

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Speed, Accident Frequency and Consequencies

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one sub-corridor, season and operating state.

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles

All train-to-train collision frequencies are in units of trains in collisions per million train miles operated in the subcorridor by all train types.. 
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U 

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 2

Public_other 0 0 0.300

Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 14 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500

Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 5 1 0.650

Private 5 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 13 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 4 0.800

Private 0 4 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120

Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 0 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 2

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding Private 0 0.100 

50 Public_gates_lights 26 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0030 0.004

Public_other 5 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0012 0.001

Private 5 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0002 0.000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0014 0.001

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0006 0.000

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass-cons HS Pass Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0002 0.000

bbb 124.86 126.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.64 25 40 40 40 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0002 0.000

33 126.5 126.5 Diamond 0 25 40 40 4034 126.5 128.76 CP Adjacent (M) 2.26 25 60 60 79

35 128.76 130.96 Plain 2.2 50 79 79 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass36 130.96 133.72 Plain 2.76 50 79 60 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 37 133.72 136.9 Plain 3.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 038 136.9 138.63 CP Adjacent (M) 1.73 50 79 79 105 40 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 

39 138.63 141.3 Siding (M) 2.67 50 79 79 105 50 2.67 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 40 141.3 143.35 CP Adjacent (M) 2.05 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 

41 143.35 148.3 Plain 4.95 50 60 79 79 60 0 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 

42 148.3 150.96 Plain 2.66 50 79 79 105 79 2.67 2.67 043 150.96 153.56 CP Adjacent (U) 2.6 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.67 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0014 0.000

44 153.56 155.57 Siding (U) 2.01 50 60 60 79 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0002 0.000

45 155.57 155.57 Diamond 0 40 40 40 40 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0002 0.000

46 155.57 157.26 CP Adjacent (U) 1.69 50 60 60 79 50 4.07

47 157.26 160.05 Plain 2.79 50 79 79 79 Passenger 40 0 0 0

48 160.05 162.11 Plain 2.06 50 79 79 105 60 2.01 2.01 0

49 162.11 164.04 Plain 1.93 50 79 79 105 79 2.06 2.06 2.01

50 164.04 166.16 Plain 2.12 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.06

51 166.16 168.34 CP Adjacent (U) 2.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 3.9

52 168.34 170.4 Siding (U) 2.06 50 79 79 105 40 0

53 170.4 172.34 CP Adjacent (U) 1.94 50 79 79 105 50 5.28

54 172.34 175.84 Plain 3.5 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

55 175.84 179.49 Plain 3.65 50 79 79 79 60 2.26 2.26 0

56 179.49 180.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.5 50 79 79 79 79 5.28 5.28 3.76

105 0 0 3.78

Freight 25 0

40 050 8.41

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 1.69 1.69 0

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 6.72 6.72 1.69

Equipped Freight 0.86 0.86 105 0 0 6.72

Unequipped Freight 0.87 2.30 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91 274 50 31.8

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 4.95 2.76 079 26.85 29.04 13.59

Timeout (secs) 120 105 0 0 18.21

Normal Operating Mode 94.86 Freight 25 3.9

Timeout Mode 0.14 40 0

Fallback Mode 5 50 52.23

bbbbbbbbbbbb Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

60 10.91 8.72 079 43.58 45.77 21.05

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Totals All Types

Plain Track

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Passenger Train Occupancy

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Speed, Accident Frequency and Consequences

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Siding (mon)

Freigh

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accid

Segment Type

Representative Speed 79 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mphRepresentative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 50 mph

Representative Speed 60 mph

Worksheet 3 - Sp,N,S: - Risk Calculations - PTC 120 Sec. Timeout Case, Springfield Subcorridor, Normal Operating State, Summer

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 105 mph

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segm

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles
113

114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U 

Seats 320 105 0 0 33.44

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Check Totals 56.13 56.13 56.13 56.13

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq. Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y 

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill pas

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00777 Incl 0.00777 7.73 6673 1.64 10943 0.00009 320 0.6 192 0.0014 0.00003 0 2 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00080 Incl 0.00080 7.73 6673 1.64 10943 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0 2 0.0000Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00021 Incl 0.00021 7.73 6673 1.64 10943 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 2 0.0086

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00098 Incl 0.00098 7.73 6673 1.64 10943 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0003 0.00001 0 2 0.0017

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 5179 1.64 8494 0.00005 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 5179 1.64 8494 0.00012 320 0.6 192 0.0006 0.00002 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 5179 1.64 8494 0.00002 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 5179 1.64 8494 0.00014 320 0.6 192 0.0012 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 5179 1.64 8494 0.0004 0.00004 0

0.00043 0.00414 0.00012 0 

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6673 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6673 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.0000Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6673 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.0086

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6673 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.0017

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 5179 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 5179 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 5179 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 5179 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 5179 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00146 Incl 0.00146 7.73 6673 54.49 363599 0.00053 320 0.6 192 0.024 0.0009 1050 0 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00018 Incl 0.00018 7.73 6673 54.49 363599 0.00007 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0001 65 0 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00006 Incl 0.00006 7.73 6673 54.49 363599 0.00002 320 0.6 192 0.000 0.0000 23 0 0.0086

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00026 Incl 0.00026 7.73 6673 54.49 363599 0.00010 320 0.6 192 0.009 0.0004 376 0 0.0017

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 5179 21.05 109026 0.00066 320 0.6 192 0.007 0.0002 292

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 5179 21.05 109026 0.00149 320 0.6 192 0.031 0.0011 1326

Overspeed 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 5179 21.05 109026 0.00024 320 0.6 192 0.010 0.0002 624

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 5179 21.05 109026 0.00175 320 0.6 192 0.070 0.0011 4545

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 5179 21.05 109026 0.009 0.0009 0

0.00485 0.16165 0.00483 8300 

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00326 Incl 0.00326 7.73 6673 33.44 223137 0.00073 320 0.6 192 0.059 0.0022 2545 0 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00056 Incl 0.00056 7.73 6673 33.44 223137 0.00012 320 0.6 192 0.004 0.0002 217 0 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00011 Incl 0.00011 7.73 6673 33.44 223137 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0000 44 0 0.0086

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00059 Incl 0.00059 7.73 6673 33.44 223137 0.00013 320 0.6 192 0.021 0.0008 917 0 0.0017

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.30 0.00602 6.00 5179 33.44 173199 0.00104 320 0.6 192 0.019 0.0007 820

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.05 0.01368 6.00 5179 33.44 173199 0.00237 320 0.6 192 0.087 0.0031 3727

broken Rail 0.01100 0.80 0.00220 6.00 5179 33.44 173199 0.00038 320 0.6 192 0.020 0.0003 1750

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.04 0.01603 6.00 5179 33.44 173199 0.00278 320 0.6 192 0.149 0.0024 12756

Work Zone Violation 0.50 6.00 5179 33.44 173199 0.019 0.0019 0

Total 0.00758 0.38027 0.01166 22777 

Overall Totals 0.01286 0.54606 0.01661 31077 

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00183 0.12212 0.00464 5237

Intrusion Collisions 0.00573 0.14455 0.00513 6165

Overspeed 0.00064 0.03031 0.00049 2374

Broken Rail 0.00466 0.22090 0.00354 17301

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02817 0.00282 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq. Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y 

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill pas

0 0.0000

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.001379234 Incl 0.00138 7.73 6673 3.9 26024 0.00004 0.00002 0.000002 $4 0 0.0279

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000181204 Incl 0.00018 7.73 6673 3.9 26024 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.0308Frt car hit by Loco 0.000206197 Incl 0.00021 7.73 6673 3.9 26024 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.30 0.01008 0.86 742 3.9 2895 0.00003 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.05 0.00817 0.86 742 3.9 2895 0.00002 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.87 751 3.9 2929 0.00004 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.87 751 3.9 2929 0.00003 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.80 0.00320 0.86 742 3.9 2895 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $1Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.87 751 3.9 2929 0.00005 0.00000 0.000000 $7Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.04 0.05338 0.86 742 3.9 2895 0.00015 0.00001 0.000001 $23Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.87 751 3.9 2929 0.00016 0.00001 0.000001 $24Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.50 0.86 742 3.9 2895 0.00006 0.000006 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.87 751 3.9 2929 0.00012 0.000012 $0

Totals 0.0005 0.0002 0.00002 $62 

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6673 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6673 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.0279

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6673 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.0308

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.30 0.01008 0.86 742 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.05 0.00817 0.86 742 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.87 751 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.87 751 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.80 0.00320 0.86 742 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.87 751 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.04 0.05338 0.86 742 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.87 751 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.50 0.86 742 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.87 751 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0006 Incl 0.00061 7.73 6673 52.23 348519 0.00021 0.00036 0.000036 $90 0 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0001 Incl 0.00010 7.73 6673 52.23 348519 0.00003 0.00005 0.000005 $12 0 0.0279Frt car hit by Loco 0.0001 Incl 0.00013 7.73 6673 52.23 348519 0.00005 0.00000 0.000000 $8 0 0.0308

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.30 0.01008 0.86 742 52.23 38774 0.00039 0.00014 0.000014 $17

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.05 0.00817 0.86 742 52.23 38774 0.00032 0.00011 0.000011 $14Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.87 751 52.23 39225 0.00056 0.00020 0.000020 $25

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.87 751 52.23 39225 0.00034 0.00012 0.000012 $15

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.80 0.00320 0.86 742 52.23 38774 0.00012 0.00004 0.000004 $73

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.87 751 52.23 39225 0.00063 0.00022 0.000022 $368

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.04 0.05338 0.86 742 52.23 38774 0.00207 0.00072 0.000072 $1,213

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.87 751 52.23 39225 0.00218 0.00076 0.000076 $1,278

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.50 0.86 742 52.23 38774 0.00161 0.000161 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.87 751 52.23 39225 0.00326 0.000326 $0

Totals 0.00691 0.0076 0.00076 $3,112 

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones) Table 3.5b: Ri

Table 3.6b: 
228

229230231232233234235236237238239240241242243244245246247248249250251252253254255256257258259260261262263264265266267268269270271272273274275276277278279280281

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U 

Overall Totals 0.00744 0.0078 0.0008 $3,174 

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00034 0.00043 0.00004 115

Intrusion Collisions 0.00173 0.00057 0.00006 72Diamond Collisions 0.00079 0.00034 0.00003 130Overspeed 0.00081 0.00027 0.00003 449Broken Rail 0.00457 0.00151 0.00015 2538Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00505 0.00050 0Grade Crossing Collisions

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injurie

Speed Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew Injuries Crew Fatalities per 10 Years 

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) 

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 4% 0.336 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

Public_other 0.30 4% 0.288 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00183 0.1221Private 0.10 4% 0.096 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00573 0.1445

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 4% 0.576 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000139 0.0014

Public_other 0.50 4% 0.480 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00064 0.0303Private 0.20 4% 0.192 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00466 0.2209

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 4% 0.768 6.00 16 82870 0.064 320 0.60 192 0.1283 0.0019 12474 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.0281

Public_other 0.65 4% 0.624 6.00 1 5179 0.003 320 0.60 192 0.0065 0.0001 633 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16135 0.4698Private 0.30 4% 0.288 6.00 1 5179 0.001 320 0.60 192 0.0030 0.0000 292

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 4% 1.056 6.00 13 67332 0.071 320 0.60 192 0.2539 0.0038 24601 Total, All Scenarios 0.17435 1.0174

Public_other 0.80 4% 0.768 6.00 4 20718 0.016 320 0.60 192 0.0568 0.0008 5505Private 0.30 4% 0.288 6.00 4 20718 0.006 320 0.60 192 0.0213 0.0003 2064 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00034 0.0004

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 4% 0.144 0.86 3 2227 0.000 0.00004 0.00000 6 Intrusion Collisions 0.00173 0.0005

Equipped Public_other 0.12 4% 0.115 0.86 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00079 0.0003

Private 0.05 4% 0.048 0.86 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00081 0.0002

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 4% 0.288 0.86 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Broken Rail 0.00457 0.0015

Public_other 0.25 4% 0.240 0.86 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.0050Private 0.10 4% 0.096 0.86 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01743 0.0066

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 4% 0.346 0.86 26 19302 0.007 0.00260 0.00013 520

Public_other 0.30 4% 0.288 0.86 5 3712 0.001 0.00042 0.00002 83 Total, All Scenarios 0.02566 0.0147Private 0.12 4% 0.115 0.86 5 3712 0.000 0.00017 0.00001 33

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.87 3 2253 0.000 0.00004 0.00000 7 0.20001 1.0322

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.87 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.87 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.87 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 10000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.87 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.87 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.87 26 19526 0.007 0.00274 0.00014 548

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.87 5 3755 0.001 0.00044 0.00002 88Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.87 5 3755 0.000 0.00018 0.00001 35

0.161 0.470 0.007 45571

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.017 0.007 0.000 1322Train Type Totals - All Speeds 0.179 0.48 0.01 46893

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Table 3.8: Summary - Al

Total Passenger + Freight
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN AO AP AQ AR AS AT 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 5962 5962 0 0.668 175 0 3849 0 9811 0 9811

Appl'n Time (sec) 13.8 40 10552 8484 2068 0.668 131 77 2882 1692 11367 3760 15126Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 14034 11966 2068 0.668 153 77 3366 1692 15332 3760 19092Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 6132 6132 0 1.293 165 0 3640 0 9772 0 9772

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 10197 10197 0 1.293 188 0 4139 0 14336 0 14336

Coefficient B 0 79 14676 12278 2398 1.293 142 68 3115 1499 15393 3896 19289Safety Factor 1.25 105 21778 19381 2398 1.293 171 68 3764 1499 23145 3896 27041

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 120 Frt Red'd Consq 35 5220 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start (MP) End (MP) Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Segment

Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops Number 25 40 

(Consq*) (Other)

32.0 124.9 126.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.6 8659.2 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 Bloom Yard 8659 8659 8659 0 0 0 0 0 0 1152 1112 1112 1152 1112 1112 1152 1112 1112 1152 1112 1112 0 0 0 32.0 1.64 0 

33.0 126.5 126.5 Diamond 0.0 0.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0

34.0 126.5 128.8 CP Adjacent (M) 2.3 11932.8 30.0 50.0 50.0 25.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 9811 11933 11933 2122 0 0 0 0 0 0 2403 7356 0 2403 7356 0 2403 3460 0 2403 2500 0 0 0 34.0 2.26 0 

35.0 128.8 131.0 Plain 2.2 11616.0 60.0 79.0 90.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 11616 11616 11616 0 0 0 0 0 0 7476 7673 7673 7476 7673 7673 3716 3777 3777 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 35.0 0 0 

36.0 131.0 133.7 Plain 2.8 14572.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 60.0 105.0 14573 14573 14573 0 0 0 0 0 0 4519 4716 0 4519 4716 0 759 820 0 759 820 0 1741 1680 0 36.0 0 0 

37.0 133.7 136.9 Plain 3.2 16790.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 15332 15393 16790 1458 1397 0 0 0 0 2301 2499 10251 2301 2499 10251 0 0 6355 0 0 2500 2301 2499 0 37.0 0 0 

38.0 136.9 138.6 CP Adjacent (M) 1.7 9134.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 9134 9134 9134 0 0 0 0 0 0 9957 10155 17907 8802 10155 17907 6198 6259 14011 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 38.0 0 0 

39.0 138.6 141.3 Siding (M) McLean (sig'd) 2.7 14097.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 McLean 14098 14098 14098 0 0 0 0 0 0 4994 5192 12944 4994 5192 12944 1234 1296 9048 1234 1296 2500 1266 1204 0 39.0 0 0 

40.0 141.3 143.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.0 10824.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 10824 10824 10824 0 0 0 0 0 0 8268 8465 16217 8268 8465 16217 4508 4569 12321 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 40.0 0 0 

41.0 143.4 148.3 Plain 5.0 26136.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 60.0 79.0 79.0 2.0 Fertilizer, Atlanta 15332 14336 15393 0 0 3896 10804 11800 6847 000000000000000 41.0 0 0 42.0 148.3 151.0 Plain 2.7 14044.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 E Lincoln Grain 14045 14045 14045 0 0 0 0 0 0 5047 5244 12996 5047 5244 12996 1287 1348 9100 1287 1348 2500 1213 1152 0 42.0 0 0 

43.0 151.0 153.6 CP Adjacent (U) 2.6 13728.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Kruger 13728 13728 13728 0 0 0 0 0 0 5364 5561 13313 5364 5561 13313 1604 1665 9417 1604 1665 2500 896 835 0 43.0 0 0 

44.0 153.6 155.6 Siding (U) Elkhart (Unsig'd) 2.0 10612.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 10613 10613 10613 0 0 0 0 0 0 8479 3723 8676 8479 3723 8676 4719 3723 4780 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 44.0 0 0 

45.0 155.6 155.6 Diamond 0.0 0.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0

46.0 155.6 157.3 CP Adjacent (U) 1.7 8923.2 50.0 70.0 70.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 1.0 Havana Ind. Lincoln 8923 8923 8923 0 0 0 0 0 0 10169 5413 10366 8802 5413 10366 6409 5413 6470 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 46.0 0 0 

47.0 157.3 160.1 Plain 2.8 14731.2 60.0 79.0 90.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 14731 14731 14731 0 0 0 0 0 0 4361 4558 4558 4361 4558 4558 601 662 662 601 662 662 1899 1838 1838 47.0 0 0 

48.0 160.1 162.1 Plain 2.1 10876.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 10877 10877 10877 0 0 0 0 0 0 8215 8412 16164 8215 8412 16164 4455 4516 12268 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 48.0 0 0 

49.0 162.1 164.0 Plain 1.9 10190.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 10190 10190 10190 0 0 0 0 0 0 8901 9099 16851 8802 9099 16851 5142 5203 12955 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 49.0 0 0 

50.0 164.0 166.2 Plain 2.1 11193.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 11194 11194 11194 0 0 0 0 0 0 7898 8096 15848 7898 8096 15848 4138 4200 11952 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 50.0 0 0 

51.0 166.2 168.3 CP Adjacent (U) 2.2 11510.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Elkhart Grain 11510 11510 11510 0 0 0 0 0 0 7581 7779 15531 7581 7779 15531 3822 3883 11635 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 51.0 0 0 

52.0 168.3 170.4 Siding (U) Elkhart (Unsig'd) 2.1 10876.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 10877 10877 10877 0 0 0 0 0 0 8215 8412 16164 8215 8412 16164 4455 4516 12268 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 52.0 0 0 

53.0 170.4 172.3 CP Adjacent (U) 1.9 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 10243 10243 10243 0 0 0 0 0 0 8849 9046 16798 8802 9046 16798 5089 5150 12902 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 53.0 0 0 

54.0 172.3 175.8 Plain 3.5 18480.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 15332 15393 18480 3148 3087 0 0 0 0 612 809 8561 612 809 8561 0 0 4665 0 0 2500 612 809 0 54.0 0 0 

55.0 175.8 179.5 Plain 3.7 19272.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 15332 15393 15393 3760 3879 3879 180 0 0 0 17 17 0 17 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 017 17 55.0 0 0 

56.0 179.5 181.0 CP Adjacent (M) 1.5 7920.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 7920 7920 7920 0 0 0 0 0 0 11172 11369 11369 8802 11369 11369 7412 7473 7473 2500 2500 2500 0 0 0 56.0 0 0 

Check Total 56.1

Train Type Representative 

Speed (mph)

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 2.7 14097.6

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 2.7 14097.6 2.7 14097.6 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 2.7 14097.6

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 4.1 21489.6

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 2.0 10612.8 2.0 10612.8 0.0 079 2.1 10876.8 2.1 10876.8 2.0 10612.8

105 0.0 0 2.1 10876.8

Freight 25 3.9 20592

40 0.0 050 5.3 27878.4

Passenger 40 1.6 8659.2 1.6 8659.2 1.6 8659.2

60 2.3 11932.8 2.3 11932.8 0.0 079 5.3 27878.4 5.3 27878.4 3.8 19852.8

105 0.0 0 3.8 19958.4

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 8.4 44404.8

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 1.7 8923.2 1.7 8923.2 0.0 079 6.7 35481.6 6.7 35481.6 1.7 8923.2

105 0.0 0 6.7 35481.6

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 31.8 167904

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 5.0 26136 2.8 14572.8 0.0 079 26.9 141768 29.0 153331.2 13.6 71755.2

105 0.0 0 18.2 96148.8

Check Total 56.1 56.1 56.1 56.1

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 14097.6Number Siding (M) Segments 1 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 1234 1266 0 14098 14098 14098 0 0 0 0 0 0

Passenger 259 1204 1036 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 500 0 2000

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.999 0.960 0.970 0.051 0.048 0.000 0.000 0.041 0.080 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 21489.6Number Siding (M) Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 2500 0 0 21490 21490 21490 0 0 0 0 0 0

Passenger 2500 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 2500 0 0

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 1.050 1.050 1.050 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 48470.4Number Siding (M) Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 1730 0 770 46349 48470 48470 2122 0 0 0 0 0

Passenger 2203 0 297 0.956 1.000 1.000 0.044 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 2222 0 278

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.978 1.038 1.039 0.042 0.000 0.000 0.031 0.012 0.011 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 44404.8Number Siding (M) Segments 4 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 2276 224 0 44405 44405 44405 0 0 0 0 0 0

Passenger 2291 209 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 2500 0 0

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 1.041 1.042 1.050 0.009 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 167904Number Siding (M) Segments 11 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 1150 706 644 46349 48470 48470 0 0 0 0 0 0

Passenger 1166 727 607 0.276 0.289 0.289 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 1651 169 680

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.308 0.321 0.340 0.028 0.029 0.007 0.026 0.024 0.027 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 40128.0Number Siding (M) Segments 4 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 23576 24071 27143 4135 0 7193 12416 16057 5792

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.588 0.600 0.676 0.103 0.000 0.179 0.309 0.400 0.144HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.558 0.570 0.643 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.394 0.480 0.237

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Industry Siding

Freight

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Plain Track

Freight Spee

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph)

Braking Duration (secs)

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Overlap of Stopping Distance Overlap of Zone A1 Into 

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Springfield Sub-Corridor: MP 124.9 (Bloomington) - MP 181.0 (Ridgely)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (ft) (including free running in TO)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prevention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop 

Full Prevention

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 TotalsZone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone B Totals

Zone C within Sight Distance

Overlap of Zone A2 into

Zone C within Sight Distance

Overlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Lengths in Feet

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals

Worksheet 1-Sp,T: IDOT-PTC Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Springfield Sub-corridor, PTC Timeout Operating State

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance Total Zone Lengths

Sight Distance (ft)

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF A

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.62 0.50 0.50 0.31 0 0.31 0 0.5 0.5 0.31 0 0.31 0 0.8 0.2 0.496 0 0.124 0 0.8 0.2 0.496 0 0.124 0 0.70 0.30 0.434 0 0.186 

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.12 0.50 0.50 0.06 0 0.06 0 0.5 0.5 0.06 0 0.06 0 0.7 0.3 0.084 0 0.036 0 0.7 0.3 0.084 0 0.036 0 0.40 0.60 0.048 0 0.072 (Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 000

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.18 1 0 0.045 0.045 0010 0.045 0.045 0010 0.072 0.072 0010 0.072 0.072 0 0 1.00 0.00 0.063 0.063 0 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0100 0.072 00100 0.072 00100 0.027 00100 0.027 0 0.00 1.00 0 0 0.045 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 01000 0.018 01000 0.018 01000 0.009 01000 0.009 0.00 1.00 0 0 0 0.

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.05 0.5 0.5 0.0125 0.0125 0.0125 0.0125 0.5 0.5 0.0125 0.0125 0.0125 0.0125 0.7 0.3 0.0175 0.0175 0.0075 0.0075 0.7 0.3 0.0175 0.0175 0.0075 0.0075 0.50 0.50 0.0125 0.0125 0.0125 0.0

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 10

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.03 0.5 0.5 0 0.015 0 0.015 0.5 0.5 0 0.015 0 0.015 0.7 0.3 0 0.021 0 0.009 0.7 0.3 0 0.021 0 0.009 0.50 0.50 0 0.015 0 0.0TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.4275 0.0725 0.4545 0.0455 1 0.4275 0.0725 0.4545 0.0455 1 0.6695 0.1105 0.1945 0.0255 1 0.6695 0.1105 0.1945 0.0255 1 0.5575 0.0905 0.3155 0.0

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.999 0.960 0.970 0.051 0.048 0.000 0.000 0.041 0.080Siding (U) 1.050 1.050 1.050 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000CP Adjacent (M) 0.978 1.038 1.039 0.042 0.000 0.000 0.031 0.012 0.011CP Adjacent (U) 1.041 1.042 1.050 0.009 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000Plain Track 0.308 0.321 0.340 0.028 0.029 0.007 0.026 0.024 0.027Diamonds 0.558 0.570 0.643 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.394 0.480 0.237

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

Pass-TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% TBE Freight - TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 90% 90% 8% 90% 0% 90% 1% 90% 0% 90% 3% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 90% 90% 8% 90% 0% 90% 1% 90% 0% 90% 3

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 3% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 3% 90% 0

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 Collisions/million 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0019 0.0019 0.0025 0.0025 0.0050 0.0012 0.0060 0.0015 0.0005 0.0002 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0004 0.0002 0.0005 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0012 0.0002 0.0018 0.0004 0.0036 0.0004 0.0043 0.0000 0.0004 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0022 0.0012 0.0023 0.0005 0.0029 0.0018 0.0030 0.0007 0.0057 0.0036 0.0016 0.0005 0.0069 0.0043 0.0019 0.0005 0.0006 0.0004 0.0003 0.0

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0014 0.0034 0.0022 0.0012 0.0020 0.0047 0.0029 0.0018 0.0039 0.0093 0.0057 0.0036 0.0048 0.0112 0.0069 0.0043 0.0004 0.0010 0.0006 0.0004 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0009 0.0009 0.0012 0.0012 0.0006 0.0006 0.0007 0.0007 0.0001 0.0001 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0002 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003 0.0005 0.0005 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0005 0.0015 0.0010 0.0005 0.0007 0.0020 0.0013 0.0007 0.0005 0.0011 0.0007 0.0005 0.0005 0.0013 0.0008 0.0005 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0

Total 0.0062 0.0022 0.0012 0.0023 0.0005 0.0084 0.0029 0.0018 0.0030 0.0007 0.0113 0.0057 0.0036 0.0016 0.0005 0.0136 0.0069 0.0043 0.0019 0.0005 0.0013 0.0006 0.0004 0.0003 0.0

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0004 0.0002 0.0005 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0001 0.0012 0.0002 0.0018 0.0004 0.0036 0.0004 0.0043 0.0000 0.0004 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0001 0.0008 0.0001 0.0008 0.0001 0.0010 0.0001 0.0010 0.0002 0.0017 0.0001 0.0008 0.0002 0.0021 0.0001 0.0009 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0009 0.0009 0.0012 0.0012 0.0021 0.0009 0.0025 0.0011 0.0002 0.0

Checking total 0.0004 0.0029 0.0005 0.0022 0.0005 0.0040 0.0006 0.0029 0.0010 0.0074 0.0004 0.0021 0.0011 0.0089 0.0005 0.0025 0.0001 0.0007 0.0001 0.0

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0014 0.0033 0.0004 0.0029 0.0045 0.0005 0.0040 0.0083 0.0010 0.0074 0.0101 0.0011 0.0089 0.0008 0.0001 0.0007 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0005 0.0014 0.00007 0.00137 0.0019 0.00010 0.00182 0.0014 0.00008 0.00128 0.0016 0.00010 0.00153 0.0002 0.00001 0.0

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0002 0.0012 b 0.00040 0.00083 0.0016 0.00053 0.00110 0.0011 0.00031 0.00083 0.0014 0.00037 0.00099 0.0002 0.00007 0.0

Total 0.0059 0.0004 0.0029 0.0005 0.0022 0.0081 0.0005 0.0040 0.0006 0.0029 0.0000 0.0108 0.0010 0.0074 0.0004 0.0021 0.0131 0.0011 0.0089 0.0005 0.0025 0.0012 0.0001 0.0007 0.0001 0.0

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0122 0.0800 0.0165 0.1000 0.0221 0.1200 0.0267 0.0025

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loc

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 0.83 0

Like Trains Unlike Train

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Worksheet 2 - Sp,T,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - PTC 120 Sec. Timeout Case, Springfield Sub-corridor, PTC Timeout Operating State, Rest of Year

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corrid 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corridor)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head On Rear End/Sid

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Sid

Head On Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Sid

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Sid

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On

Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (Not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Collision Distribution Head On Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating 

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y ZAA AB AC AD AE AF

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 2

Public_other 0 0 0.300Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 14 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 5 1 0.650Private 5 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 13 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 4 0.800Private 0 4 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 0 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 2

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain DiamondPrivate 0 0.100 Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain

50 Public_gates_lights 26 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0034 0.0047 0.0093 0.0112 0.0010 0.000000 0.0014 0.0020 0.0039 0.0048 0.0004

Public_other 5 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0009 0.0012 0.0006 0.0007 0.0001 0.000000Private 5 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0004 0.0005 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.015497 0.0002 0.0003 0.0001 0.0002 0.0000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0015 0.0020 0.0011 0.0013 0.0002 0.003099 0.0005 0.0007 0.0005 0.0005 0.0001

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0033 0.0045 0.0083 0.0101 0.0008 0.000000

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass-cons HS Pass Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0014 0.0019 0.0014 0.0016 0.0002 0.032160

32 124.86 126.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.64 25 40 40 40 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0012 0.0016 0.0011 0.0014 0.0002 0.040557

33 126.5 126.5 Diamond 0 25 40 40 40

34 126.5 128.76 CP Adjacent (M) 2.26 25 60 60 79

35 128.76 130.96 Plain 2.2 50 79 79 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

36 130.96 133.72 Plain 2.76 50 79 60 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 40 60 79 105

37 133.72 136.9 Plain 3.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0.00

38 136.9 138.63 CP Adjacent (M) 1.73 50 79 79 105 40 0.00 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0093 0.0000 0.0025 0.0025

39 138.63 141.3 Siding (M) 2.67 50 79 79 105 50 2.67 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0006 0.0000 0.0001 0.0004

40 141.3 143.35 CP Adjacent (M) 2.05 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001

41 143.35 148.3 Plain 4.95 50 60 79 79 60 0 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0011 0.0000 0.0004 0.0005

42 148.3 150.96 Plain 2.66 50 79 79 105 79 2.67 2.67 0

43 150.96 153.56 CP Adjacent (U) 2.6 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.67 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0083 0.0000 0.0035

44 153.56 155.57 Siding (U) 2.01 50 60 60 79 Freight 25 0.00 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0014 0.0000 0.0008

45 155.57 155.57 Diamond 0 40 40 40 40 40 0.00 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0011 0.0000 0.0007

46 155.57 157.26 CP Adjacent (U) 1.69 50 60 60 79 50 4.07

47 157.26 160.05 Plain 2.79 50 79 79 79 Passenger 40 0 0 0

48 160.05 162.11 Plain 2.06 50 79 79 105 60 2.01 2.01 0

49 162.11 164.04 Plain 1.93 50 79 79 105 79 2.06 2.06 2.01

50 164.04 166.16 Plain 2.12 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.06

51 166.16 168.34 CP Adjacent (U) 2.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 3.90

52 168.34 170.4 Siding (U) 2.06 50 79 79 105 40 0.00

53 170.4 172.34 CP Adjacent (U) 1.94 50 79 79 105 50 5.28

54 172.34 175.84 Plain 3.5 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

55 175.84 179.49 Plain 3.65 50 79 79 79 60 2.26 2.26 0

56 179.49 180.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.5 50 79 79 79 79 5.28 5.28 3.76

105 0 0 3.78

Freight 25 0.00

40 0.0050 8.41

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 1.69 1.69 0

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 6.72 6.72 1.69

Equipped Freight 0.86 0.86 105 0 0 6.72

Unequipped Freight 0.87 2.30 Freight 25 0.00

40 0.00

Operating Days 91 274 50 31.80

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 4.95 2.76 079 26.85 29.04 13.59

Timeout (secs) 120 105 0 0 18.21

Normal Operating Mode 94.86 Freight 25 3.90

Timeout Mode 0.14 40 0.00Fallback Mode 5 50 52.23

Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

60 10.91 8.72 0.0079 43.58 45.77 21.05

Seats 320 105 0.00 0.00 33.44

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Check Totals 56.13 56.13 56.13 56.13

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00929 Incl 0.00929 9.16 35 1.64 57 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00001 0.000000 0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00062 Incl 0.00062 9.16 35 1.64 57 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00027 Incl 0.00027 9.16 35 1.64 57 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 2 0.015497 0.000001 0.000007 0.000000 0.27

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00111 Incl 0.00111 9.16 35 1.64 57 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 2 0.003099 0.000000 0.000007 0.000000 0.22

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 23 1.64 38 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 23 1.64 38 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 23 1.64 38 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 23 1.64 38 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00001 0.000000 0

Work Zone Violation See Consequence Ta 0.25 #VALUE! 6.00 23 1.64 38 0.00000 0.000000 0

0.00000 0.00002 0.000001 0 0.000001 0.000014 0.000000 0.49

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 35 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 35 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 35 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.015497 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 35 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.003099 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 23 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 23 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 23 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 23 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Work Zone Violation See Consequence Ta 0.25 #VALUE! 6.00 23 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 0 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00254 Incl 0.00254 9.16 35 54.49 1908 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00022 0.000008 10 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00014 Incl 0.00014 9.16 35 54.49 1908 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00012 Incl 0.00012 9.16 35 54.49 1908 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.015497 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00041 Incl 0.00041 9.16 35 54.49 1908 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00007 0.000003 3 0 0.003099 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 23 21.05 483 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00004 0.000002 2

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 23 21.05 483 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.00014 0.000005 6

Overspeed 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 23 21.05 483 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00011 0.000002 7

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 23 21.05 483 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.00033 0.000005 21

Work Zone Violation See Consequence Ta 0.25 #VALUE! 6.00 23 21.05 483 0.00006 0.000006 0

0.00003 0.00098 0.000031 49 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00254 Incl 0.00254 6.00 23 33.44 767 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00016 0.000006 7 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00043 Incl 0.00043 6.00 23 33.44 767 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00001 0.000001 1 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00009 Incl 0.00009 6.00 23 33.44 767 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.015497 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00046 Incl 0.00046 6.00 23 33.44 767 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00006 0.000002 2 0 0.003099 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 23 33.44 767 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.00012 0.000004 5

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 23 33.44 767 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.00041 0.000014 17

broken Rail 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 23 33.44 767 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00023 0.000004 19

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 23 33.44 767 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.00069 0.000011 59

Work Zone Violation See Consequence Ta 0.25 #VALUE! 6.00 23 33.44 767 0.00013 0.000013 0

Total 0.00004 0.00180 0.000055 111 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.00007 0.00280 0.00009 160 0.000001 0.000014 0.000000 0

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00001 0.00054 0.00002 23

Intrusion Collisions 0.00003 0.00072 0.00003 31Overspeed 0.00001 0.00034 0.00001 26Broken Rail 0.00002 0.00102 0.00002 80Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00019 0.00002 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.00831 Incl 0.00831 9.16 35 3.9 137 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.032160 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.00136 Incl 0.00136 9.16 35 3.9 137 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.040557 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.00113 Incl 0.00113 9.16 35 3.9 137 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.86 3 3.9 13 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.86 3 3.9 13 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 2.30 9 3.9 34 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 2.30 9 3.9 34 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.50 0.00800 0.86 3 3.9 13 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 2.30 9 3.9 34 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.86 3 3.9 13 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 2.30 9 3.9 34 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.25 0.86 3 3.9 13 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 2.30 9 3.9 34 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 $1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 35 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 35 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.032160 0.000002 0.000002 0.000000 0.51

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 35 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.040557 0.000003 0.000000 0.000000 0.32

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.86 3 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.86 3 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 2.30 9 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 2.30 9 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.50 0.00800 0.86 3 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 2.30 9 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.86 3 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 2.30 9 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.25 0.86 3 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 2.30 9 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.000005 0.000002 0.000000 0.82

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Totals All Types

Plain Track

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Passenger Train Occupancy

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Passenger

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Freight

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Speed, Accident Frequency and Consequences

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Siding (mon)

Freight Passenger

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies by Representative Speed (mph)

Segment Type

Representative Speed 79 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mphRepresentative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 50 mph

Representative Speed 60 mph

Worksheet 3-Sp,T,R: - Risk Calculations - PTC Normal Case, Springfield Subcorridor, Timeout Operating State, Rest of Year

Collision Frequencies for Passenger + Unequipped Freight Train 

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 105 mph

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Collision Scenario (From Coll Matrix)

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one sub-corridor, season and operating state.

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles

All train-to-train collision frequencies are in units of trains in collisions per million train miles operated in the subcorridor by all train types. 
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF A

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.80 0.50 0.50 0.4 0 0.4 0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0 0.4 0 0.8 0.2 0.64 0 0.16 0 0.8 0.2 0.64 0 0.16 0 0.70 0.30 0.56 0 0.24 

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.15 0.50 0.50 0.075 0 0.075 0 0.5 0.5 0.075 0 0.075 0 0.7 0.3 0.105 0 0.045 0 0.7 0.3 0.105 0 0.045 0 0.40 0.60 0.06 0 0.09 

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 000

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.05 1 0 0.0125 0.0125 0010 0.0125 0.0125 0010 0.02 0.02 0010 0.02 0.02 0 0 1.00 0.00 0.0175 0.0175 0 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0100 0.02 00100 0.02 00100 0.0075 00100 0.0075 0 0.00 1.00 0 0 0.0125 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 01000 0.005 01000 0.005 01000 0.0025 01000 0.0025 0.00 1.00 0 0 0 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 000

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 10

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.4875 0.0125 0.495 0.005 1 0.4875 0.0125 0.495 0.005 1 0.765 0.02 0.2125 0.0025 1 0.765 0.02 0.2125 0.0025 1 0.6375 0.0175 0.3425 0.0

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.999 0.960 0.970 0.051 0.048 0.000 0.000 0.041 0.080Siding (U) 1.050 1.050 1.050 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000CP Adjacent (M) 0.978 1.038 1.039 0.042 0.000 0.000 0.031 0.012 0.011CP Adjacent (U) 1.041 1.042 1.050 0.009 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000Plain Track 0.308 0.321 0.340 0.028 0.029 0.007 0.026 0.024 0.027Diamonds 0.558 0.570 0.643 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.394 0.480 0.237

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

Pass-TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% TBE Freight - TBE Freight 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 90% 90% 8% 90% 0% 90% 1% 90% 0% 90% 3% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 90% 90% 8% 90% 0% 90% 1% 90% 0% 90% 3

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 90% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 3% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 0% 90% 3% 90% 0

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 Collisions/million 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0024 0.0024 0.0032 0.0032 0.0064 0.0016 0.0077 0.0019 0.0007 0.0003 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0005 0.0002 0.0006 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0003 0.0001 0.0005 0.0001 0.0010 0.0001 0.0012 0.0000 0.0001 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0027 0.0003 0.0027 0.0002 0.0036 0.0005 0.0036 0.0002 0.0070 0.0010 0.0019 0.0001 0.0084 0.0012 0.0022 0.0002 0.0007 0.0001 0.0003 0.0

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0004 0.0030 0.0027 0.0003 0.0006 0.0041 0.0036 0.0005 0.0011 0.0080 0.0070 0.0010 0.0013 0.0096 0.0084 0.0012 0.0001 0.0008 0.0007 0.0001 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0012 0.0012 0.0016 0.0016 0.0008 0.0008 0.0010 0.0010 0.0001 0.0001 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.0003 0.0003 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0002 0.0014 0.0012 0.0002 0.0002 0.0019 0.0017 0.0002 0.0001 0.0010 0.0009 0.0001 0.0002 0.0012 0.0010 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 0.0

Total 0.0058 0.0027 0.0003 0.0027 0.0002 0.0078 0.0036 0.0005 0.0036 0.0002 0.0100 0.0070 0.0010 0.0019 0.0001 0.0120 0.0084 0.0012 0.0022 0.0002 0.0012 0.0007 0.0001 0.0003 0.0

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Une

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Gu

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0005 0.0002 0.0006 0.0003 0.0000 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0003 0.0001 0.0005 0.0001 0.0010 0.0001 0.0012 0.0000 0.0001 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0

Checking total 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002 0.0004 0.0005 0.0004 0.0002 0.0006 0.0010 0.0003 0.0001 0.0008 0.0012 0.0003 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0004 0.0006 0.0003 0.0003 0.0009 0.0004 0.0005 0.0016 0.0006 0.0010 0.0020 0.0008 0.0012 0.0001 0.0000 0.0001 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0002 0.0002 0.00005 0.00015 0.0003 0.00006 0.00020 0.0002 0.00006 0.00013 0.0002 0.00007 0.00015 0.0000 0.00001 0.0

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0001 0.0002 b 0.00024 0.00000 0.0003 0.00032 0.00000 0.0002 0.00021 0.00000 0.0002 0.00025 0.00000 0.0001 0.00005 0.0

Total 0.0010 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002 0.0014 0.0004 0.0005 0.0004 0.0002 0.0000 0.0020 0.0006 0.0010 0.0003 0.0001 0.0024 0.0008 0.0012 0.0003 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0069 0.0800 0.0093 0.1000 0.0120 0.1200 0.0144 0.0014

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loc

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 0.83 0

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (Not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Sid

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Sid

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Sid

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head On Rear End/Sid

Worksheet 2 - Sp,T,S: Collision Frequencies Calculation - PTC 120 Sec. Timeout Case, Springfield Sub-corridor, PTC Timeout Operating State, Summer

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corrid 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Accidents (Collisions per Million Train-Miles Operated in Sub-Corridor)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Like Trains Unlike Train

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating 

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y ZAA AB AC AD AE AF

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 2

Public_other 0 0 0.300Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 14 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 5 1 0.650Private 5 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 13 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 4 0.800Private 0 4 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 0 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 2

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain DiamondPrivate 0 0.100 Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain

50 Public_gates_lights 26 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0030 0.0041 0.0080 0.0096 0.0008 0.000000 0.0004 0.0006 0.0011 0.0013 0.0001

Public_other 5 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0012 0.0016 0.0008 0.0010 0.0001 0.000000Private 5 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0002 0.0003 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.015497 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0014 0.0019 0.0010 0.0012 0.0002 0.003099 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.0002 0.0000

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0006 0.0009 0.0016 0.0020 0.0001 0.000000

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass-cons HS Pass Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0002 0.0003 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000 0.032160

bbb 124.86 126.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.64 25 40 40 40 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0002 0.0003 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.040557

33 126.5 126.5 Diamond 0 25 40 40 40

34 126.5 128.76 CP Adjacent (M) 2.26 25 60 60 79

35 128.76 130.96 Plain 2.2 50 79 79 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

36 130.96 133.72 Plain 2.76 50 79 60 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 40 60 79 105

37 133.72 136.9 Plain 3.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0.00

38 136.9 138.63 CP Adjacent (M) 1.73 50 79 79 105 40 0.00 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0080 0.0000 0.0015 0.0033

39 138.63 141.3 Siding (M) 2.67 50 79 79 105 50 2.67 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0008 0.0000 0.0002 0.0006

40 141.3 143.35 CP Adjacent (M) 2.05 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001

41 143.35 148.3 Plain 4.95 50 60 79 79 60 0 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0010 0.0000 0.0003 0.0006

42 148.3 150.96 Plain 2.66 50 79 79 105 79 2.67 2.67 0

43 150.96 153.56 CP Adjacent (U) 2.6 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.67 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0016 0.0000 0.0007

44 153.56 155.57 Siding (U) 2.01 50 60 60 79 Freight 25 0.00 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001

45 155.57 155.57 Diamond 0 40 40 40 40 40 0.00 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001

46 155.57 157.26 CP Adjacent (U) 1.69 50 60 60 79 50 4.07

47 157.26 160.05 Plain 2.79 50 79 79 79 Passenger 40 0 0 0

48 160.05 162.11 Plain 2.06 50 79 79 105 60 2.01 2.01 0

49 162.11 164.04 Plain 1.93 50 79 79 105 79 2.06 2.06 2.01

50 164.04 166.16 Plain 2.12 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.06

51 166.16 168.34 CP Adjacent (U) 2.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 3.90

52 168.34 170.4 Siding (U) 2.06 50 79 79 105 40 0.00

53 170.4 172.34 CP Adjacent (U) 1.94 50 79 79 105 50 5.28

54 172.34 175.84 Plain 3.5 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

55 175.84 179.49 Plain 3.65 50 79 79 79 60 2.26 2.26 0

56 179.49 180.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.5 50 79 79 79 79 5.28 5.28 3.76

105 0 0 3.78

Freight 25 0.00

40 0.0050 8.41

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 1.69 1.69 0

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 6.72 6.72 1.69

Equipped Freight 0.86 0.86 105 0 0 6.72

Unequipped Freight 0.87 2.30 Freight 25 0.00

40 0.00

Operating Days 91 274 50 31.80

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 4.95 2.76 079 26.85 29.04 13.59

Timeout (secs) 120 105 0 0 18.21

Normal Operating Mode 94.86 Freight 25 3.90

Timeout Mode 0.14 40 0.00Fallback Mode 5 50 52.23

Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

60 10.91 8.72 0.0079 43.58 45.77 21.05

Seats 320 105 0.00 0.00 33.44

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Check Totals 56.13 56.13 56.13 56.13

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq. Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00801 Incl 0.00801 7.73 9.82 1.64 16 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00080 Incl 0.00080 7.73 9.82 1.64 16 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00021 Incl 0.00021 7.73 9.82 1.64 16 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 2 0.015497 0.000000 0.000002 0.000000 0.08

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00098 Incl 0.00098 7.73 9.82 1.64 16 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 2 0.003099 0.000000 0.000002 0.000000 0.06

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 7.62 1.64 12 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 7.62 1.64 12 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 7.62 1.64 12 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 7.62 1.64 12 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.25 6.00 7.62 1.64 12 0.00000 0.000000 0

0.00000 0.00001 0.000000 0 0.000000 0.000004 0.000000 0.14

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 9.82 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 9.82 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 9.82 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.015497 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 9.82 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.003099 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 7.62 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 7.62 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 7.62 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 7.62 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.25 6.00 7.62 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 0 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00152 Incl 0.00152 7.73 9.82 54.49 535 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00004 0.000001 2 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00018 Incl 0.00018 7.73 9.82 54.49 535 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00006 Incl 0.00006 7.73 9.82 54.49 535 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.015497 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00026 Incl 0.00026 7.73 9.82 54.49 535 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00001 0.000001 1 0 0.003099 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 7.62 21.05 160 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00001 0.000001 1

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 7.62 21.05 160 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00005 0.000002 2

Overspeed 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 7.62 21.05 160 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00004 0.000001 2

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 7.62 21.05 160 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00011 0.000002 7

Work Zone Violation 0.25 6.00 7.62 21.05 160 0.00002 0.000000 0

0.00001 0.00028 0.000006 14 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00326 Incl 0.00326 7.73 9.82 33.44 328 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00009 0.000003 4 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00056 Incl 0.00056 7.73 9.82 33.44 328 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00001 0.000000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00011 Incl 0.00011 7.73 9.82 33.44 328 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00000 0.000000 0 0 0.015497 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00059 Incl 0.00059 7.73 9.82 33.44 328 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00003 0.000001 1 0 0.003099 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.00 0.00860 6.00 7.62 33.44 255 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00004 0.000001 2

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.00 0.01440 6.00 7.62 33.44 255 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00013 0.000005 6

broken Rail 0.01100 0.50 0.00550 6.00 7.62 33.44 255 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00008 0.000001 6

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.00 0.01670 6.00 7.62 33.44 255 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.00023 0.000004 20

Work Zone Violation 0.25 6.00 7.62 33.44 255 0.00004 0.000004 0

Total 0.00001 0.00065 0.000020 39 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.00002 0.00093 0.00003 53 0.000000 0.000004 0.000000 0

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00000 0.00018 0.00001 8

Intrusion Collisions 0.00001 0.00024 0.00001 10

Overspeed 0.00000 0.00011 0.00000 9

Broken Rail 0.00001 0.00034 0.00001 27Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00006 0.00000 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq. Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.001613485 Incl 0.00161 7.73 9.82 3.9 38 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.032160 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000181204 Incl 0.00018 7.73 9.82 3.9 38 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.040557 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.000206197 Incl 0.00021 7.73 9.82 3.9 38 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.86 1.09 3.9 4 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.86 1.09 3.9 4 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.87 1.10 3.9 4 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.87 1.10 3.9 4 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.50 0.00800 0.86 1.09 3.9 4 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.87 1.10 3.9 4 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.86 1.09 3.9 4 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.87 1.10 3.9 4 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.25 0.86 1.09 3.9 4 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.87 1.10 3.9 4 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 9.82 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 9.82 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.032160 0.000001 0.000001 0.000000 0.14

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 9.82 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.040557 0.000001 0.000000 0.000000 0.09

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.86 1.09 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.86 1.09 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.87 1.10 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.87 1.10 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.50 0.00800 0.86 1.09 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.87 1.10 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.86 1.09 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.87 1.10 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.25 0.86 1.09 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.87 1.10 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.000001 0.000001 0.000000 0.23

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Collision Scenario (From Coll Matrix)

Representative Speed 79 mph

Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 40 mph

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Worksheet 3-Sp,T,S: - Risk Calculations - PTC Normal Case, Springfield Subcorridor, Timeout Operating State, Summer

Collision Frequencies for Passenger + Unequipped Freight Train 

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 105 mph

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Trips/Day

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Representative Speed 25 mph

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies by Representative Speed (mph)

Representative Speed 50 mph

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Passenger

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Freight

Freight Passenger

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Speed. Accident Frequency and Consequences

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Percent Train-Miles in

Mauve cells contain data imported from Worksheet 2 in this group of three worksheets covering this sub-corridor, season and operating state.

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles

All train-to-train collision frequencies are in units of trains in collisions per million train miles operated in the subcorridor by all train types. 
IDOT Risk Model: Cab Signal Case

Preventability 70% (Basic Cab Signal Case)4/4/2007

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities 

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00949 0.70571 0.02705 30764 182477 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01061 0.72542 0.02767 31371 186923 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01539 1.04349 0.03975 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00994 0.28484 0.01012 12206 71048 Intrusion Collisions 0.01058 0.28664 0.01018 12216 71416 Intrusion Collisions 0.01626 0.41145 0.01459 

Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00407 0.00012 143 913 Diamond Collisions 0.00033 0.00358 0.00011 125 803 Diamond Collisions 0.00073 0.00784 0.00023 

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916 70493 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0.00733 

Broken Rail 0.00841 0.43118 0.00693 35529 99440 Broken Rail 0.00895 0.43917 0.00704 35558 100600 Broken Rail 0.01376 0.65224 0.01046 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0 45798 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0.01699 

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.02319 151171 376715 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 0.02191 Total, All Scenarios 0.63121 3.76467 0.08879 290162 933006 Total, All Scenarios 0.59509 3.43673 0.08457 255358 852746 Total, All Scenarios 0.56259 4.21788 0.11127 

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00161 0.00174 0.00017 504 1199 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00335 0.00353 0.00035 1000 2411 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00460 0.00503 0.00050 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00218 0.00071 0.00007 90 376 Intrusion Collisions 0.00371 0.00116 0.00012 145 609 Intrusion Collisions 0.00790 0.00262 0.00026 

Diamond Collisions 0.00168 0.00078 0.00008 286 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00144 0.00066 0.00007 244 509 Diamond Collisions 0.00320 0.00148 0.00015 

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810 2215 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0.00024 

Broken Rail 0.00667 0.00208 0.00021 3650 4482 Broken Rail 0.01132 0.00331 0.00033 5911 7235 Broken Rail 0.02413 0.00795 0.00080 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0 6729 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0.00370 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.00121 4717 10730 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0.00190 

Total, All Scenarios 0.06239 0.03328 0.00250 9073 19887 Total, All Scenarios 0.09883 0.05020 0.00386 13827 30438 Total, All Scenarios 0.14517 0.09373 0.00756 

0.69360 3.79795 0.09129 299236 952893 0.69393 3.48694 0.08843 269185 883184 0.70776 4.31160 0.11883 

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities 

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00356 0.24461 0.00933 10571 63007 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00504 0.34592 0.01316 

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00351 0.09520 0.00338 4057 23718 Intrusion Collisions 0.00540 0.13665 0.00485 

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00010 0.00107 0.00003 37 239 Diamond Collisions 0.00020 0.00220 0.00007 

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275 23412 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0.00244 

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00297 0.14586 0.00234 11809 33411 Broken Rail 0.00457 0.21662 0.00348 

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0 15156 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0.00564 

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.00770 50207 125113 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0.00728 

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.19766 1.14442 0.02822 84957 284057 Total, All Scenarios 0.18674 1.39978 0.03690 

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00060 0.00061 0.00006 177 421 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00056 0.00058 0.00006 

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00077 0.00024 0.00002 30 127 Intrusion Collisions 0.00144 0.00048 0.00005 

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00043 0.00020 0.00002 73 152 Diamond Collisions 0.00090 0.00041 0.00004 

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377 461 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0.00004 

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00236 0.00069 0.00007 1231 1507 Broken Rail 0.00439 0.00145 0.00014 

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0 1402 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0.00067 

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.00025 983 2235 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0.00035 Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.02062 0.01039 0.00080 2871 6304 Total, All Scenarios 0.02643 0.01686 0.00136 

0.21828 1.15481 0.02902 87827 290361 0.21317 1.41664 0.03826 

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities 

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00949 0.70571 0.02705 30764 182477 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01417 0.97002 0.03700 41943 249930 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.02043 1.38941 0.05291 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00994 0.28484 0.01012 12206 71048 Intrusion Collisions 0.01409 0.38184 0.01356 16273 95135 Intrusion Collisions 0.02166 0.54810 0.01944 

Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00407 0.00012 143 913 Diamond Collisions 0.00043 0.00464 0.00014 163 1042 Diamond Collisions 0.00093 0.01004 0.00030 

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00836 0.40995 0.00657 33191 93905 Overspeed 0.01285 0.60883 0.00977 

Broken Rail 0.00841 0.43118 0.00693 35529 99440 Broken Rail 0.01192 0.58503 0.00938 47367 134010 Broken Rail 0.01833 0.86885 0.01394 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.15197 0.01525 0 60953 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.22632 0.02263 

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.74378 2.07769 0.03089 201378 501828 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.67512 1.96610 0.02919 Total, All Scenarios 0.63121 3.76467 0.08879 290162 933006 Total, All Scenarios 0.79275 4.58115 0.11279 340315 1136803 Total, All Scenarios 0.74933 5.61766 0.14818 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00161 0.00174 0.00017 504 1199 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00396 0.00414 0.00041 1177 2832 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00516 0.00561 0.00056 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00218 0.00071 0.00007 90 376 Intrusion Collisions 0.00448 0.00140 0.00014 175 736 Intrusion Collisions 0.00933 0.00310 0.00031 

Diamond Collisions 0.00168 0.00078 0.00008 286 599 Diamond Collisions 0.00186 0.00086 0.00009 317 660 Diamond Collisions 0.00409 0.00189 0.00019 

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00419 0.00122 0.00012 2187 2676 Overspeed 0.00873 0.00288 0.00029 

Broken Rail 0.00667 0.00208 0.00021 3650 4482 Broken Rail 0.01368 0.00400 0.00040 7143 8742 Broken Rail 0.02852 0.00940 0.00094 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02033 0.00203 0 8130 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04373 0.00437 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09129 0.02865 0.00147 5700 12965 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11578 0.04397 0.00225 

Total, All Scenarios 0.06239 0.03328 0.00250 9073 19887 Total, All Scenarios 0.11946 0.06059 0.00466 16698 36742 Total, All Scenarios 0.17161 0.11058 0.00891 

0.69360 3.79795 0.09129 299236 952893 0.91221 4.64174 0.11745 357012 1173545 0.92094 5.72824 0.15709 

Results Summary: Basic Case, Cab Signal and ATS 70% Preventability.

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R3a: All Year, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, Springfield 

Total Passenger + Freight

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, Joliet (Included in Full Year Table) Table R2b: Summer, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, Springfield 

Table R1a: Full Year, Joliet

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R1b: Rest of Year, Bloomington

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R1c: Rest of Year, Springfield

Total Passenger + Freight

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary 
133

134135136137138139140141142143

K L MN O P Q 

Segment Type

Head-on Rear/Side Head-on R/S P into F R/S F into P Head-on 

Siding - Monitored 50% 50% 50% 40% 10% 50% Siding - Unmonitored 50% 50% 50% 40% 10% 50% CP-Adjacent, Monitored 90% 10% 80% 15% 5% 75% CP-Adjacent, Unmonitored 90% 10% 80% 15% 5% 75% Plain Track 80% 20% 70% 25% 5% 50% 

Head-on and Rear/Side Train-Train Collision Distributions by Segment Type

Table IN-5b: Collision Distributions Between Head-on and Rear/Side by trains Involved and Segm

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Freight Frei
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN AO AP AQ AR AS 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 1671 1671 0 0.668 58 0 1275 0 2946 0 2946

Appl'n Time (secs) 13.8 40 3686 1619 2068 0.668 14 77 308 1692 1927 3760 5686Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 5452 3384 2068 0.668 36 77 791 1692 4176 3760 7935Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 1452 1452 0 1.293 48 0 1065 0 2517 0 2517

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 3177 3177 0 1.293 71 0 1565 0 4742 0 4742

Coefficient B 0 79 5433 3035 2398 1.293 25 68 541 1499 3576 3896 7472Safety Factor 1.25 105 9493 7096 2398 1.293 54 68 1190 1499 8286 3896 12182

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 3 Frt Red'd Consq 35 1125 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response (sec) 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start End Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Segment

Number (milepost) (milepost) Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops Number 25 

(Consq*) (Other)

1.0 62.6 64.8 CP Adjacent (M) 2.2 11616 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3330 3681 4144 0 0 0 566 0 0 462 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0566 1.00 

2.0 64.8 66.6 Plain 1.8 9240 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 954 1168 1768 0 0 0 2942 0 0 462 0 0 0 00000 2500 2.0 0 

3.0 66.6 68.2 Plain 1.7 8870.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 585 799 1399 0 0 0 3311 0 0 462 0 0 0 00000 2500 3.0 0 

4.0 68.2 70.2 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 10243.2 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1958 2172 2772 0 0 0 1939 0 0 462 0 0 0 00000 1939 4.0 0 

5.0 70.2 72.8 Siding (M) Dwight (sig'd) 2.6 13886.4 60 79 110 40 60 60 79 0 1927 4742 3576 0 0 3896 11960 9145 6415 0 00000000000000 5.0 0 

6.0 72.8 72.8 Diamond 0.0 0 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 0 6.0 0 

7.0 72.8 74.9 CP Adjacent (M) 2.1 11299.2 60 79 110 40 60 60 79 0 1927 4742 3576 0 0 3896 9373 6558 3828 0 00000000000000 7.0 0 

8.0 74.9 77.3 Plain 2.3 12302.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 4231 4831 121 0 00000000000000 8.00 

9.0 77.3 80.1 Plain 2.9 15100.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 7029 7629 2919 0 00000000000000 9.00 

10.0 80.1 82.0 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 9820.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1535 1749 2349 0 0 0 2361 0 0 462 0 0 0 00000 2361 10.0 0 

11.0 82.0 84.7 Siding (M) Odell (Sig'd) 2.7 14044.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5973 6573 1863 0 00000000000000 11.0 0 

12.0 84.7 86.4 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9398.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1113 1327 1927 0 0 0 2783 0 0 462 0 0 0 00000 2500 12.0 0 

13.0 86.4 88.4 Plain 1.9 10137.6 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1852 2066 2666 0 0 0 2044 0 0 462 0 0 0 00000 2044 13.0 0 

Check Total 25.8

Train Type Representative 

Speed

(mph)

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 2.6 13886.450 2.7 14044.8

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 2.6 13886.4 2.6 13886.4 0.0 079 2.7 14044.8 2.7 14044.8 2.6 13886.4

105 0.0 0 2.7 14044.8

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 0.0 0

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 0.0 0

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 2.1 11299.250 7.8 41078.4

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 2.1 11299.2 2.1 11299.2 0.0 079 7.8 41078.4 7.8 41078.4 2.1 11299.2

105 0.0 0 7.8 41078.4

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 0.0 0

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 0.0 0

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 10.5 55651.2

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 10.5 55651.2 10.5 55651.2 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 10.5 55651.2

Check Total 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 27931.2Number Siding (M) Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 6102 8317 11861 3896 3896 7792 17933 15718 8278

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.218 0.298 0.425 0.139 0.139 0.279 0.642 0.563 0.296HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.208 0.283 0.403 0.133 0.133 0.265 0.710 0.635 0.382 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 1Number Siding (M) Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 0 00000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (M) Segments (ft) 52377.6

Number CP Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 18629 19044 36718 15448 15584 11832 18301 17749 3828

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.356 0.364 0.701 0.295 0.298 0.226 0.349 0.339 0.073HS Pass 0 1473 1027

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.338 0.345 0.666 0.280 0.283 0.274 0.432 0.422 0.111 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (U) Segments (ft) 1Number CP Adjacent Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 0 00000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Plain Track Segments (ft) 55651.2

Number CP Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 18629 19044 36718 0 0 0000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.335 0.342 0.660 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 1409 1091

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.318 0.325 0.627 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.100 0.100 0.044 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 25185.6Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 3238 6354 6070 4135 0 4795 17813 18832 14320

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.129 0.252 0.241 0.164 0.000 0.190 0.707 0.748 0.569HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.122 0.240 0.229 0.156 0.000 0.181 0.772 0.810 0.640

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Worksheet 1-JN: IDOT Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventability Case, Joliet Sub-corridor

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance (ft) Total Zone Lengths (ft0

Sight Distance (ft)

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Lengths in Feet)

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals

Zone C within Sight Distance

Overlap of Zone A2 into

Zone C within Sight Distance

Overlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zoneFraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone B Totals

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (including free running in TO) (ft)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prevention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop 

Full Prevention

Overlap of Stopping Distance Overlap of Zone A1 Into 

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Sub-Corridor 1: MP 62.7 (Mazonia) - MP 88.3 (Bunge)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Braking Duration (secs)

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Freight

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Plain Track

Frei

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph) Industry Siding

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% Percent 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.71 0.50 0.50 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.5 0.5 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.70 0.30 0.497 0 0.213 0 Pass-Pas

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.29 0.50 0.50 0.145 0 0.145 0 0.5 0.5 0.145 0 0.145 0 0.7 0.3 0.203 0 0.087 0 0.7 0.3 0.203 0 0.087 0 0.40 0.60 0.116 0 0.174 0 Pass-TBE 

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.500 0 0 0 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.500 0 0 0 TBE Frei

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Percent TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 01.00 0.000 0 0 0 00 Pass - N

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00.00 1.000 0 0 0 0.25 0.25 Rear/Sid

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00.00 1.000 0 0 0 0.05 0.05 Rear/Sid

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.500 0 0 0 0.1 0.1 TBE Frei

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100% Percent 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.500 0 0 0 0 0.2 NE Freig

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.771 0 0.229 0 1 0.771 0 0.229 0 1 0.613 0 0.387 0 0.4 0.6 Total Pro

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.208 0.283 0.403 0.133 0.133 0.265 0.710 0.635 0.382

Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 0.338 0.345 0.666 0.280 0.283 0.274 0.432 0.422 0.111CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 0.318 0.325 0.627 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.100 0.100 0.044Diamonds 0.122 0.240 0.229 0.156 0.000 0.181 0.772 0.810 0.640

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty

Both TBE Pass-Pass 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% Pass-Pas

Pass-TBE Freight 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% Pass-TB

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% TBE Frei

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 70% 70% 38% 70% 10% 70% 11% 70% 10% 70% 4% Pass - N

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 70% 70% 38% 70% 10% 70% 11% 70% 10% 70% 4% 70% 81.03% Rear/Sid

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 70% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 81.03% Rear/Sid

TBE Freight - NE Freight 70% 70% 71% 70% 0% 70% 10% 70% 0% 70% 43% 70% 0% 70% 10% 70% 0% 70% 10% 70% 0% 70% 77.19% TBE Frei

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.00% NE Freig

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 Collisions/million diamond passes 0.1

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0064 0.0064 0.0085 0.0085 0.0170 0.0043 0.0204 0.0051 0.0018 0.0008 Pass-Pas

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0013 0.0013 0.0017 0.0017 0.0030 0.0013 0.0037 0.0016 0.0002 0.0003 Pass-TB

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 TBE Frei

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Pass - N

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.007500 0.004742 Rear/SidRear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.001500 0.000948 Rear/Sid

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 0.000000 0.000000 TBE Frei

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 0.000000 NE Freig

Checking total 0.0077 0.0000 0.0077 0.0000 0.0103 0.0000 0.0103 0.0000 0.0201 0.0000 0.0056 0.0000 0.0241 0.0000 0.0067 0.0000 0.0020 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 0.00900 0.00569

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals Scenar

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0077 0.0077 0.0000 0.0000 0.0103 0.0103 0.0000 0.0000 0.0201 0.0201 0.0000 0.0000 0.0241 0.0241 0.0000 0.0000 0.0020 0.0020 0.0000 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0032 0.0032 0.0043 0.0043 0.0021 0.0021 0.0026 0.0026 0.0004 0.0004 P

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0000 0.0014 0.0014 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0000 0.0012 0.0012 0.0000 0.0003 0.0003 0.007500 0.004742 0.012242 Pa

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0035 0.0035 0.0000 0.0000 0.0046 0.0046 0.0000 0.0000 0.0025 0.0025 0.0000 0.0000 0.0029 0.0029 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0004 0.0000 0.001500 0.000948 0.002448 

Total 0.0154 0.0077 0.0000 0.0077 0.0000 0.0205 0.0103 0.0000 0.0103 0.0000 0.0257 0.0201 0.0000 0.0056 0.0000 0.0308 0.0241 0.0000 0.0067 0.0000 0.0031 0.0020 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 0.009000 0.005690 0.014690 

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 Pass-Pas

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0013 0.0013 0.0017 0.0017 0.0030 0.0013 0.0037 0.0016 0.0002 0.0003 Pass-TBE 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TBE Frei

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Pass - N

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.007500 0.004742 Rear/Sid

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.001500 0.000948 Rear/Sid

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.006000 0.004562 TBE Frei

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.040000 NE Freig

Checking total 0.0013 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0017 0.0000 0.0017 0.0000 0.0030 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0037 0.0000 0.0016 0.0000 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.01500 0.05025

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals Scen

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0013 0.0013 0.0000 0.0017 0.0017 0.0000 0.0030 0.0030 0.0000 0.0037 0.0037 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000 Freight L

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0003 0.00026 0.00000 0.0003 0.00035 0.00000 0.0003 0.00033 0.00000 0.0004 0.00039 0.00000 0.0001 0.00005 0.00000 0.010500 0.023229 0.033729 Freight L

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0010 0.00104 0.00000 0.0014 0.00139 0.00000 0.0010 0.00098 0.00000 0.0012 0.00117 0.00000 0.0003 0.00026 0.00000 0.004500 0.027023 0.031523 Freight C

Total 0.0026 0.0013 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0035 0.0017 0.0000 0.0017 0.0000 0.0000 0.0044 0.0030 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0052 0.0037 0.0000 0.0016 0.0000 0.0005 0.0002 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 0.015000 0.050252 0.065252 

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0180 0.0800 0.0240 0.1000 0.0300 0.1200 0.0360 0.0036

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.500.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 0.83 0.17

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Table 2.2: Prev entability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head On Rear End/Side

Diamond Collisions

Rear End/SideRear End/Side

Diamond CollisionsDiamond Collisions

Rear End/Side

Worksheet 2 - J,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventability Case, Joliet Sub-corridor, Rest of Year

Table 2.1b: Collision Type D

Table 2.3b: Collision Prev ent

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) Table 2.5b: Freight Trains in 

Table 2.4b: Passenger Trains 

Diamond Collisions

Rear End/Side

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight

Mauv e cells contain data imported f rom prev ious worksheet in a group of three worksheets cov ering one sub-corridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and f reight trains, the ratio between passenger hits f reight and f reight loco hits passenger car are a f unction of the percentages giv en in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The v alues are giv en in the tables beneath the trains in collisions f or each segment ty pe. 

Quantity in cell C18 is f or all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped f reight train
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y ZAA AB AC AD AE AF

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 8 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 20 8 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.650Private 1 0 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 20 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.800

Private 0 1 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 8 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain Diamond

Private 0 0.100 Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain

50 Public_gates_lights 20 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0077 0.0103 0.0201 0.0241 0.0020 0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Public_other 0 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0032 0.0043 0.0021 0.0026 0.0004 0.000000

Private 1 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0010 0.0014 0.0010 0.0012 0.0003 0.012242 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0035 0.0046 0.0025 0.0029 0.0004 0.002448 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0013 0.0017 0.0030 0.0037 0.0002 0.000000

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0001 0.033729

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0010 0.0014 0.0010 0.0012 0.0003 0.031523

Segment Start End Type Length

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass-Cons HS Pass Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

1.0 62.60 64.80 CP Adjacent (M) 2.20 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 40 60 79 105

2.0 64.80 66.55 Plain 1.75 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0.00

3.0 66.55 68.23 Plain 1.68 50 79 79 105 40 2.63 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0000 0.0133 0.00944.0 68.23 70.17 CP Adjacent (M) 1.94 50 79 79 105 50 2.66 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027 0.0014

5.0 70.17 72.80 Siding (M) 2.63 40 60 60 79 Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0000 0.0010 0.0006

6.0 72.80 72.80 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 60 2.63 2.63 0.00 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0000 0.0030 0.0016

7.0 72.80 74.94 CP Adjacent (M) 2.14 40 60 60 79 79 2.66 2.66 2.63

8.0 74.94 77.27 Plain 2.33 50 79 79 105 105 0.00 0.00 2.66 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0021 0.0014

9.0 77.27 80.13 Plain 2.86 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0.00 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0003 0.0002

10.0 80.13 81.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.86 50 79 79 105 40 0.00 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0010 0.0006

11.0 81.99 84.65 Siding (M) 2.66 50 79 79 105 50 0.00

12.0 84.65 86.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.78 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

13.0 86.43 88.35 Plain 1.92 50 79 79 105 60 0.00 0.00 0.00

79 0.00 0.00 0.00

105 0.00 0.00 0.00

Freight 25 0.00

40 2.1450 7.78

Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

Length Check -64.8 25.8 60 2.14 2.14 0.00

79 7.78 7.78 2.14

105 0.00 0.00 7.78

Freight 25 0.00

40 0.0050 0.00

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 0.00 0.00 0.00

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 0.00 0.00 0.00

Equipped Freight 1.43 1.43 105 0.00 0.00 0.00

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0.00

40 0.00

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 10.54

Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 0.00 0.00 0.00

79 10.54 10.54 0.00

Timeout (secs) 0 105 0.00 0.00 10.54

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 0.00

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 4.77

Fallback Mode 5 50 20.98

Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 4.77 4.77 0.00

79 20.98 20.98 4.77

Seats 320 105 0.00 0.00 20.98

Occupancy Factor 0.6

Checking Total 25.75 25.75 25.75 25.75

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill. t-m) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.012242 0.000315 0.002059 0.000061 79.16

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.002448 0.000063 0.002010 0.000061 63.39

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 20805 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000378 0.004069 0.000121 142.56

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.012242 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.002448 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 20805 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.01325 Incl 0.01325 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00163 320 0.6 192 0.075 0.0027 3218 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00272 Incl 0.00272 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00033 320 0.6 192 0.006 0.0003 330 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00101 Incl 0.00101 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00012 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 123 0 0.012242 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00301 Incl 0.00301 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00037 320 0.6 192 0.034 0.0015 1460 0 0.002448 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.00055 320 0.6 192 0.006 0.0002 247Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.00129 320 0.6 192 0.027 0.0009 1143Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.00109 320 0.6 192 0.044 0.0007 2838

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.00156 320 0.6 192 0.063 0.0010 4050

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.016 0.0016 0

0.00695 0.27287 0.00900 13410 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00943 Incl 0.00943 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00510 320 0.6 192 0.416 0.0157 17809 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00139 Incl 0.00139 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00075 320 0.6 192 0.025 0.0012 1310 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00063 Incl 0.00063 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00034 320 0.6 192 0.011 0.0005 592 0 0.012242 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00157 Incl 0.00157 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00085 320 0.6 192 0.137 0.0052 5923 0 0.002448 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.00244 320 0.6 192 0.045 0.0016 1918

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.00566 320 0.6 192 0.207 0.0074 8898

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.00480 320 0.6 192 0.258 0.0041 22058

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.00685 320 0.6 192 0.368 0.0059 31478

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.095 0.0095 0

Total 0.02678 1.56243 0.05109 89985 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.03373 1.83530 0.06010 103395 0.000378 0.004069 0.000121 143

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00949 0.70571 0.02705 30764

Intrusion Collisions 0.00994 0.28484 0.01012 12206

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896

Broken Rail 0.00841 0.43118 0.00693 35529

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill t-m) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.033729 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.031523 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00Frt car hit by Loco 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.35 0.00936 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.10 0.00774 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.06 0.05226 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Representative Speed 50 mph

Freight Passenger

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequenciess by Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths (miles)

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Worksheet 3 - J,N,R: - Risk Calculations - Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventability Case, Joliet Subcorridor, Rest of Year

Collision Frequencies for Passenger + Unequipped Freight Train 

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Collision Scenario (From Coll Matrix)

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mphRepresentative Speed 40 mph

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Passenger

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Freight

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

CP Adjacent (mon)

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating state.

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles

All train-to-train collision frequencies are in units of trains in collisions per million train-miles operated in the subcorridor by all train types.
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 1671 1671 0 0.668 58 0 1275 0 2946 0 2946

Appl'n Time (sec) 13.8 40 3686 1619 2068 0.668 14 77 308 1692 1927 3760 5686Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 5452 3384 2068 0.668 36 77 791 1692 4176 3760 7935Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 1452 1452 0 1.293 48 0 1065 0 2517 0 2517

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 3177 3177 0 1.293 71 0 1565 0 4742 0 4742

Coefficient B 0 79 5433 3035 2398 1.293 25 68 541 1499 3576 3896 7472

Safety Factor 1.25 105 9493 7096 2398 1.293 54 68 1190 1499 8286 3896 12182

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 3 Frt Red'd Consq 35 1125 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response (sec 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start End Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight P

Number (milepost (milepost) Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops 

(Consq*) (Other)

14.0 88.4 90.6 Plain 2.2 11616 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Bunge 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3330 3681 4144 0 0 0 566 0 0 462 0 0 0 0 

15.0 90.6 92.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 10137.6 49.0 50.0 50.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 1.0 Donnley 1927 4742 3576 0 0 3896 8211 5396 2666 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16.0 92.5 95.0 Siding (M) Pontiac (Sig'd) 2.5 13200 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 Pontiac 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5128 5728 1018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17.0 95.0 96.8 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9715.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 Ocoya 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1430 1644 2244 0 0 0 2467 0 0 462 0000

18.0 96.8 100.3 Plain 3.5 18321.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 10250 10850 6140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19.0 100.3 102.3 CP Adjacent (M) 2.0 10401.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 0.0 1927 4742 3576 3760 0 3896 4715 5660 2930 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.0 102.3 102.3 Diamond 0.0 0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 0.0 21.0 102.3 104.6 CP Adjacent (M) 2.3 12408 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 0.0 1927 4742 3576 0 0 3896 10481 7666 4936 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22.0 104.6 106.4 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9662.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1377 1591 2191 0 0 0 2519 0 0 462 0000

23.0 106.4 108.8 Siding (M) Ballard (Sig'd) 2.4 12672 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 4600 5200 490 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24.0 108.8 111.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.5 13358.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5287 5887 1177 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.0 111.4 113.3 Plain 1.9 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1958 2172 2772 0 0 0 1939 0 0 462 0000

26.0 113.3 116.4 Plain 3.1 16156.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 8085 8685 3975 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27.0 116.4 118.8 Plain 2.5 13041.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Tow anda 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3896 5106 5570 860 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28.0 118.8 121.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.6 13569.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3896 5634 6098 1388 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29.0 121.4 123.6 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 2.2 11457.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 79.0 79.0 1.0 Bloomington 1927 4742 3576 3760 0 3896 5771 6716 3986 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30.0 123.6 124.4 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.8 4276.8 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 1.0 Bloomington Bloomingtom 2946 2517 2517 0 0 0 1331 1760 1760 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31.0 124.4 124.9 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.5 2534.4 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 1.0 Bloomington 2534 2517 2517 0 0 0 0 17 17 411 0 0 110 0 0 411 0 0 411 

Check Total 36.5

Train Type Representative 

Speed

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 1.29 6811

40 2.17 1145850 4.90 25872

Passenger 40 1.29 6811 1.29 6811 1.29 6811

60 2.17 11458 0.00 0 0.00 079 4.90 25872 7.07 37330 2.17 11458

105 0.00 0 4.90 25872

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 0.00 0

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 079 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 0.00 0

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 6.24 3294750 8.77 46306

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 6.24 32947 6.24 32947 0.00 079 8.77 46306 8.77 46306 6.24 32947

105 0.00 0 8.77 46306

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 0.00 0

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 079 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 0.00 0

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 13.14 69379

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 079 13.14 69379 13.14 69379 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 13.14 69379

Check Total 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 44140.8Number Siding (M) Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 82 0 2418 15758 16927 25181 11552 7792 11688 16831 19422 7272

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.357 0.383 0.570 0.262 0.177 0.265 0.381 0.440 0.165HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.342 0.364 0.542 0.249 0.168 0.252 0.459 0.518 0.257 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 1Number Siding (M) Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 0 00000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (M) Segments (ft) 79252.8Number CP Adjacent Segments 7 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft0 Freight 0 0 2500 22482 28527 43869 19208 15584 22287 37563 35142 13097

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.284 0.360 0.554 0.242 0.197 0.281 0.474 0.443 0.165HS Pass 0 710 1790

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.269 0.342 0.526 0.230 0.187 0.296 0.550 0.521 0.229 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (U) Segments (ft) 1Number CP Adjacent Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 0 00000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Plain Track Segments (ft) 69379.2Number CP Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 22482 28527 43869 0 0 0000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.324 0.411 0.632 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 501 1999

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.308 0.391 0.601 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.100 0.100 0.080 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 22809.6Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 3238 6354 6070 4135 0 4795 15437 16456 11944

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.142 0.279 0.266 0.181 0.000 0.210 0.677 0.721 0.524HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.135 0.265 0.253 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.743 0.785 0.597

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95

violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Industry Siding 

Freight

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Plain Track

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph)

Braking Duration (secs)

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Overlap of Stopping Distance Overlap of 

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Bloomington Sub-Corridor: MP 88.4 (Bunge) - MP 124.9 (Bloomington)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (including free running in TO) (ft)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prevention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop 

Full Prevention

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 TotalsZone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone B Totals

Zone C within 

Overlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Lengths in Feet

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals

Worksheet 1-B,N: IDOT Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventability Case, Bloomingto

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance (ft) Total Zone Lengths (ft)

Sight Distance (ft)

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.5 0.5 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.8 0.2 0.48 0 0.12 0 0.8 0.2 0.48 0 0.12 0 0.70 0.3

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.32 0.50 0.50 0.16 0 0.16 0 0.5 0.5 0.16 0 0.16 0 0.7 0.3 0.224 0 0.096 0 0.7 0.3 0.224 0 0.096 0 0.40 0.6

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.08 0.50 0.50 0.04 0 0.04 0 0.5 0.5 0.04 0 0.04 0 0.7 0.3 0.056 0 0.024 0 0.7 0.3 0.056 0 0.024 0 0.50 0.5

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 01.00 0.0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00.00 1.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00.00 1.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.76 0 0.24 0 1 0.76 0 0.24 0 1 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.342 0.364 0.542 0.249 0.168 0.252 0.459 0.518 0.257Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 0.269 0.342 0.526 0.230 0.187 0.296 0.550 0.521 0.229CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 0.308 0.391 0.601 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.100 0.100 0.080Diamonds 0.135 0.265 0.253 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.743 0.785 0.597

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

Pass-TBE Freight 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 70% 70% 26% 70% 10% 70% 23% 70% 10% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 70% 70% 26% 70% 10% 70% 23% 70% 10% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 70% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 70% 70% 46% 70% 0% 70% 10% 70% 0% 70% 55% 70% 0% 70% 10% 70% 0% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0054 0.0054 0.0072 0.0072 0.0144 0.0036 0.0173 0.0043 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0014 0.0014 0.0019 0.0019 0.0034 0.0014 0.0040 0.0017 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0068 0.0000 0.0068 0.0000 0.0091 0.0000 0.0091 0.0000 0.0178 0.0000 0.0050 0.0000 0.0213 0.0000 0.0060 0.0000 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0068 0.0068 0.0000 0.0000 0.0091 0.0091 0.0000 0.0000 0.0178 0.0178 0.0000 0.0000 0.0213 0.0213 0.0000 0.0000 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0027 0.0027 0.0036 0.0036 0.0018 0.0018 0.0022 0.0022 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0012 0.0012 0.0000 0.0015 0.0015 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 0.0000 0.0013 0.0013 0.0000 0.00

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0030 0.0030 0.0000 0.0000 0.0040 0.0040 0.0000 0.0000 0.0022 0.0022 0.0000 0.0000 0.0026 0.0026 0.0000 0.0000 0.00

Total 0.0137 0.0068 0.0000 0.0068 0.0000 0.0182 0.0091 0.0000 0.0091 0.0000 0.0228 0.0178 0.0000 0.0050 0.0000 0.0274 0.0213 0.0000 0.0060 0.0000 0.00

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0014 0.0014 0.0019 0.0019 0.0034 0.0014 0.0040 0.0017 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0007 0.0007 0.0010 0.0010 0.0017 0.0007 0.0020 0.0009 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0022 0.0000 0.0022 0.0000 0.0029 0.0000 0.0029 0.0000 0.0050 0.0000 0.0022 0.0000 0.0060 0.0000 0.0026 0.0000 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0022 0.0022 0.0000 0.0029 0.0029 0.0000 0.0050 0.0050 0.0000 0.0060 0.0060 0.0000 0.00

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0006 0.00065 0.00000 0.0009 0.00086 0.00000 0.0007 0.00072 0.00000 0.0009 0.00086 0.00000 0.00

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0015 0.00151 0.00000 0.0020 0.00202 0.00000 0.0014 0.00144 0.00000 0.0017 0.00173 0.00000 0.00

Total 0.0043 0.0022 0.0000 0.0022 0.0000 0.0058 0.0029 0.0000 0.0029 0.0000 0.0000 0.0072 0.0050 0.0000 0.0022 0.0000 0.0086 0.0060 0.0000 0.0026 0.0000 0.00

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0180 0.0800 0.0240 0.1000 0.0300 0.1200 0.0360 0.00

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freig

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freigh

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passe

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios 

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Worksheet 2 - B,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventabilityt Case, Bloomington Sub-corridor, Res

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On 

Collision Distribut

Head On Collision Distribut

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On

Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Collision Distribution Head On Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one sub-corridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y ZAA AB AC AD AE AF

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 7 7 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300

Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 16 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500

Private 1 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 16 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 1 0 0.650

Private 6 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 16 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 1 0.800

Private 0 6 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 7 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120

Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 16 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain Diamond

Private 1 0.100 Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain

50 Public_gates_lights 16 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0068 0.0091 0.0178 0.0213 0.0017 0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Public_other 1 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0027 0.0036 0.0018 0.0022 0.0003 0.000000

Private 6 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0012 0.0015 0.0011 0.0013 0.0003 0.012866 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0030 0.0040 0.0022 0.0026 0.0004 0.002573 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0022 0.0029 0.0050 0.0060 0.0004 0.000000

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0006 0.0009 0.0007 0.0009 0.0001 0.034144

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0015 0.0020 0.0014 0.0017 0.0004 0.032437

(conseq)

14.0 88.35 90.55 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 105

15.0 90.55 92.47 CP Adjacent (M) 1.92 40 60 60 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

16.0 92.47 94.97 Siding (M) 2.50 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 40 60 79 105

17.0 94.97 96.81 CP Adjacent (M) 1.84 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 1.29

18.0 96.81 100.28 Plain 3.47 50 79 79 105 40 2.17 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0068 0.0000 0.0149 0.0079

19.0 100.28 102.25 CP Adjacent (M) 1.97 40 60 60 79 50 4.9 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0027 0.0000 0.0020 0.0012

20.0 102.25 102.25 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0012 0.0000 0.0011 0.0007

21.0 102.25 104.60 CP Adjacent (M) 2.35 40 60 60 79 60 2.17 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0030 0.0000 0.0024 0.0014

22.0 104.60 106.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.83 50 79 79 105 79 4.9 7.07 2.17

23.0 106.43 108.83 Siding (M) 2.40 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 4.9 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0022 0.0043 0.0022

24.0 108.83 111.36 CP Adjacent (M) 2.53 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0006 0.0007 0.0004

25.0 111.36 113.30 Plain 1.94 50 79 79 105 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0015 0.0015 0.0009

26.0 113.30 116.36 Plain 3.06 50 79 79 105 50 0

27.0 116.36 118.83 Plain 2.47 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0

28.0 118.83 121.40 CP Adjacent (M) 2.57 50 79 79 105 60 0 0 0

29.0 121.40 123.57 Siding (M) 2.17 40 60 79 79 79 0 0 0

30.0 123.57 124.38 Siding (M) 0.81 25 40 40 40 105 0 0 0

31.0 124.38 124.86 Siding (M) 0.48 25 40 40 40 Freight 25 0

40 6.24

50 8.77

Passenger 40 0 0 0

Length Check 36.5 36.5 60 6.24 6.24 0

79 8.77 8.77 6.24

105 0 0 8.77

Freight 25 0

40 0

50 0

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 000

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 000

Equipped Freight 1.43 2.28 105 0 0 0

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 13.14

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 000

79 13.14 13.14 0

Timeout (secs) 0.00 105 0 0 13.14

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 1.29

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 8.41

Fallback Mode 5.00 50 26.81

Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29

60 8.41 6.24 0

79 26.81 28.98 8.41

Seats 320.00 105 0 0 26.81

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Checking Totals 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00683 Incl 0.00683 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00019 320 0.6 192 0.0030 0.00007 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00270 Incl 0.00270 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00008 320 0.6 192 0.0005 0.00001 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00115 Incl 0.00115 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00001 0 1 0.012866 0.000277 0.001810 0.000053 69.60

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00299 Incl 0.00299 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00008 320 0.6 192 0.0026 0.00008 0 1 0.002573 0.000055 0.001768 0.000053 55.74

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.00011 320 0.6 192 0.0003 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.00026 320 0.6 192 0.0013 0.00005 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.00022 320 0.6 192 0.0019 0.00002 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.00032 320 0.6 192 0.0027 0.00002 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.0017 0.00017 0

0.00129 0.01417 0.00044 1 0.000333 0.003578 0.000106 125.34

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21553 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21553 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21553 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.012866 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21553 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.002573 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.01494 Incl 0.01494 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00271 320 0.6 192 0.125 0.0044 5351 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00203 Incl 0.00203 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00037 320 0.6 192 0.007 0.0003 364 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00110 Incl 0.00110 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00020 320 0.6 192 0.004 0.0002 197 0 0.012866 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00237 Incl 0.00237 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00043 320 0.6 192 0.039 0.0017 1700 0 0.002573 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.00073 320 0.6 192 0.008 0.0003 327

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.00170 320 0.6 192 0.035 0.0012 1513

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.00144 320 0.6 192 0.058 0.0009 3757

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.00206 320 0.6 192 0.083 0.0013 5361

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.022 0.0022 0

0.00965 0.38052 0.01255 18569 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00791 Incl 0.00791 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00457 320 0.6 192 0.373 0.0140 15981 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00124 Incl 0.00124 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00072 320 0.6 192 0.024 0.0011 1253 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00070 Incl 0.00070 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00041 320 0.6 192 0.013 0.0006 712 0 0.012866 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00144 Incl 0.00144 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00083 320 0.6 192 0.134 0.0051 5814 0 0.002573 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.00234 320 0.6 192 0.043 0.0015 1840

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.00543 320 0.6 192 0.199 0.0071 8536

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.00461 320 0.6 192 0.248 0.0040 21160

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.00657 320 0.6 192 0.353 0.0057 30197

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.091 0.0091 0

Total 0.02548 1.47878 0.04828 85492 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.03642 1.87347 0.06127 104061 0.000333 0.003578 0.000106 125

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.01061 0.72542 0.02767 31371

Intrusion Collisions 0.01058 0.28664 0.01018 12216

Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916

Broken Rail 0.00895 0.43917 0.00704 35558

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Rate Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Rate 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.002158327 Incl 0.00216 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00006 0.00003 0.000003 $6 0 0.034144 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000647498 Incl 0.00065 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00002 0.00001 0.000001 $2 0 0.032437 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.001510829 Incl 0.00151 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00004 0.00000 0.000000 $2

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.35 0.00936 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00007 0.00001 0.000001 $1

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.10 0.00774 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00006 0.00001 0.000001 $1

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00012 0.00001 0.000001 $18

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.06 0.05226 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00040 0.00002 0.000002 $60

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00032 0.000032 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0008 0.0004 0.00004 $90 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0043 Incl 0.00430 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00078 0.00086 0.000086 $210 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0007 Incl 0.00070 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00013 0.00011 0.000011 $29 1 0.034144 0.000736 0.000662 0.000066 165.58

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0015 Incl 0.00146 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00026 0.00000 0.000000 $30 1 0.032437 0.000699 0.000000 0.000000 78.30

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.35 0.00936 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00047 0.00011 0.000011 $13

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.10 0.00774 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00039 0.00009 0.000009 $11

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00080 0.00011 0.000011 $299

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.06 0.05226 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00261 0.00038 0.000038 $978

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00329 0.000329 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00543 0.0049 0.00050 $1,570 0.001435 0.000662 0.000066 243.88

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0022 Incl 0.00223 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00129 0.00219 0.000219 $543 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0004 Incl 0.00042 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00024 0.00034 0.000034 $85 0 0.034144 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0009 Incl 0.00092 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00053 0.00000 0.000000 $94 0 0.032437 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.35 0.00936 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.00149 0.00052 0.000052 $66

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.10 0.00774 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.00123 0.00043 0.000043 $54

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.00255 0.00089 0.000089 $1,492

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.06 0.05226 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.00832 0.00291 0.000291 $4,873

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.01321 0.001321 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.01564 0.0205 0.00205 $7,207 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.02185 0.0258 0.0026 $8,866 0.001435 0.000662 0.000066 $244

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00335 0.00353 0.00035 1000

Intrusion Collisions 0.00371 0.00116 0.00012 145

Diamond Collisions 0.00144 0.00066 0.00007 244

Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810

Broken Rail 0.01132 0.00331 0.00033 5911

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0

Grade Crossing Collisions

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew InjuriesCrew Fatalitiesper 10 Years ($) Totals

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) ($)

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 7 109326 0.038 320 0.60 192 0.0206 0.0003 1913

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01061 0.72542 0.02767 31371 186923

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.01058 0.28664 0.01018 12216 71416

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000333 0.00358 0.00011 125 803

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916 70493

Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00895 0.43917 0.00704 35558 100600

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 16 249888 0.200 320 0.60 192 0.4030 0.0060 39182 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0 45798

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.02319 151171 376715

Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 15618 0.005 320 0.60 192 0.0094 0.0001 918

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 16 249888 0.275 320 0.60 192 0.9816 0.0146 95107 Total, All Scenarios 0.59509 3.43673 0.08457 255358 852746

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 1 15618 0.012 320 0.60 192 0.0446 0.0007 4323

Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 6 93708 0.028 320 0.60 192 0.1004 0.0015 9727 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00335 0.00353 0.00035 1000 2411

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 2.28 7 41544 0.006 0.00075 0.00003 125 Intrusion Collisions 0.00371 0.00116 0.00012 145 609

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 2.28 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00144 0.00066 0.00007 244 509

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 2.28 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810 2215

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 2.28 16 94957 0.028 0.00712 0.00037 1424 Broken Rail 0.01132 0.00331 0.00033 5911 7235

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 2.28 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0 6729

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 2.28 1 5935 0.001 0.00015 0.00001 30 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.00121 4717 10730

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 2.28 16 94957 0.034 0.01333 0.00068 2666

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 2.28 1 5935 0.002 0.00069 0.00004 139 Total, All Scenarios 0.09883 0.05020 0.00386 13827 30438

Private 0.12 0% 0.120 2.28 6 35609 0.004 0.00167 0.00009 333

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 7 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.69393 3.48694 0.08843 269185 883184

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 16 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 3000000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 16 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 6 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.558 1.560 0.023 151171

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.076 0.024 0.001 4717

Train Type 0.634 1.58 0.02 155889

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings

Per 10 years

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies by Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Passenger

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Freight

Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total Passenger + Freight

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Freight Passenger

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 40 mph

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Posted Speed (mph) Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Worksheet 3 - B,N,R: - Risk Calculations - Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventability Case, Bloomington Sub-corridor, Rest of Year

Representative Speed 50 mph

Collision Frequencies for Passenger + Unequipped Freight Train 

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Collision Scenario (From Coll Matrix)

Data exported to the 

Results Summary 

worksheet

Mauve cells contain data 

imported from previous 

worksheet in a group of three 

worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating 

state.

Casualties and damage in 

Table 3.1 are per accident, 

except for Work Zone 

Violations which are per 

million train-miles

All train-to-train collision 

frequencies are in units of 

trains in collisions per 

million train-miles 

operated in the subcorridor by all train types.
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.71 0.50 0.50 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.5 0.5 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.70 0.3

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.29 0.50 0.50 0.145 0 0.145 0 0.5 0.5 0.145 0 0.145 0 0.7 0.3 0.203 0 0.087 0 0.7 0.3 0.203 0 0.087 0 0.40 0.6

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.500 0 0 0 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 01.00 0.0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00.00 1.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00.00 1.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.771 0 0.229 0 1 0.771 0 0.229 0 1 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.342 0.364 0.542 0.249 0.168 0.252 0.459 0.518 0.257Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 0.269 0.342 0.526 0.230 0.187 0.296 0.550 0.521 0.229CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 0.308 0.391 0.601 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.100 0.100 0.080Diamonds 0.135 0.265 0.253 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.743 0.785 0.597

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

Pass-TBE Freight 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 70% 70% 26% 70% 10% 70% 23% 70% 10% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 70% 70% 26% 70% 10% 70% 23% 70% 10% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 70% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 70% 70% 46% 70% 0% 70% 10% 70% 0% 70% 55% 70% 0% 70% 10% 70% 0% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0064 0.0064 0.0085 0.0085 0.0170 0.0043 0.0204 0.0051 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0013 0.0013 0.0017 0.0017 0.0030 0.0013 0.0037 0.0016 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0077 0.0000 0.0077 0.0000 0.0103 0.0000 0.0103 0.0000 0.0201 0.0000 0.0056 0.0000 0.0241 0.0000 0.0067 0.0000 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0077 0.0077 0.0000 0.0000 0.0103 0.0103 0.0000 0.0000 0.0201 0.0201 0.0000 0.0000 0.0241 0.0241 0.0000 0.0000 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0032 0.0032 0.0043 0.0043 0.0021 0.0021 0.0026 0.0026 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0000 0.0014 0.0014 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0000 0.0012 0.0012 0.0000 0.00

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0035 0.0035 0.0000 0.0000 0.0046 0.0046 0.0000 0.0000 0.0025 0.0025 0.0000 0.0000 0.0029 0.0029 0.0000 0.0000 0.00

Total 0.0154 0.0077 0.0000 0.0077 0.0000 0.0205 0.0103 0.0000 0.0103 0.0000 0.0257 0.0201 0.0000 0.0056 0.0000 0.0308 0.0241 0.0000 0.0067 0.0000 0.00

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0013 0.0013 0.0017 0.0017 0.0030 0.0013 0.0037 0.0016 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0013 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0017 0.0000 0.0017 0.0000 0.0030 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0037 0.0000 0.0016 0.0000 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0013 0.0013 0.0000 0.0017 0.0017 0.0000 0.0030 0.0030 0.0000 0.0037 0.0037 0.0000 0.00

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0003 0.00026 0.00000 0.0003 0.00035 0.00000 0.0003 0.00033 0.00000 0.0004 0.00039 0.00000 0.00

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0010 0.00104 0.00000 0.0014 0.00139 0.00000 0.0010 0.00098 0.00000 0.0012 0.00117 0.00000 0.00

Total 0.0026 0.0013 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0035 0.0017 0.0000 0.0017 0.0000 0.0000 0.0044 0.0030 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0052 0.0037 0.0000 0.0016 0.0000 0.00

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0180 0.0800 0.0240 0.1000 0.0300 0.1200 0.0360 0.00

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Collision Distribut

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On 

Worksheet 2 - B,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventabilityt Case, Bloomington Sub-corridor, S

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains 

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freigh

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios 

Collision Type Like Trains

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passe

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freig

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one sub-corridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.71 0.50 0.50 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.5 0.5 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.70 0.3

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.29 0.50 0.50 0.145 0 0.145 0 0.5 0.5 0.145 0 0.145 0 0.7 0.3 0.203 0 0.087 0 0.7 0.3 0.203 0 0.087 0 0.40 0.6

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.500 0 0 0 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 01.00 0.0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00.00 1.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00.00 1.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.771 0 0.229 0 1 0.771 0 0.229 0 1 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.342 0.364 0.542 0.249 0.168 0.252 0.459 0.518 0.257Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 0.269 0.342 0.526 0.230 0.187 0.296 0.550 0.521 0.229CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 0.308 0.391 0.601 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.100 0.100 0.080Diamonds 0.135 0.265 0.253 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.743 0.785 0.597

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

Pass-TBE Freight 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 70% 70% 26% 70% 10% 70% 23% 70% 10% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 70% 70% 26% 70% 10% 70% 23% 70% 10% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 70% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 70% 70% 46% 70% 0% 70% 10% 70% 0% 70% 55% 70% 0% 70% 10% 70% 0% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0064 0.0064 0.0085 0.0085 0.0170 0.0043 0.0204 0.0051 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0013 0.0013 0.0017 0.0017 0.0030 0.0013 0.0037 0.0016 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0077 0.0000 0.0077 0.0000 0.0103 0.0000 0.0103 0.0000 0.0201 0.0000 0.0056 0.0000 0.0241 0.0000 0.0067 0.0000 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0077 0.0077 0.0000 0.0000 0.0103 0.0103 0.0000 0.0000 0.0201 0.0201 0.0000 0.0000 0.0241 0.0241 0.0000 0.0000 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0032 0.0032 0.0043 0.0043 0.0021 0.0021 0.0026 0.0026 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0000 0.0014 0.0014 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0000 0.0012 0.0012 0.0000 0.00

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0035 0.0035 0.0000 0.0000 0.0046 0.0046 0.0000 0.0000 0.0025 0.0025 0.0000 0.0000 0.0029 0.0029 0.0000 0.0000 0.00

Total 0.0154 0.0077 0.0000 0.0077 0.0000 0.0205 0.0103 0.0000 0.0103 0.0000 0.0257 0.0201 0.0000 0.0056 0.0000 0.0308 0.0241 0.0000 0.0067 0.0000 0.00

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0013 0.0013 0.0017 0.0017 0.0030 0.0013 0.0037 0.0016 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0013 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0017 0.0000 0.0017 0.0000 0.0030 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0037 0.0000 0.0016 0.0000 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0013 0.0013 0.0000 0.0017 0.0017 0.0000 0.0030 0.0030 0.0000 0.0037 0.0037 0.0000 0.00

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0003 0.00026 0.00000 0.0003 0.00035 0.00000 0.0003 0.00033 0.00000 0.0004 0.00039 0.00000 0.00

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0010 0.00104 0.00000 0.0014 0.00139 0.00000 0.0010 0.00098 0.00000 0.0012 0.00117 0.00000 0.00

Total 0.0026 0.0013 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0035 0.0017 0.0000 0.0017 0.0000 0.0000 0.0044 0.0030 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0052 0.0037 0.0000 0.0016 0.0000 0.00

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0180 0.0800 0.0240 0.1000 0.0300 0.1200 0.0360 0.00

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Collision Distribut

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On 

Worksheet 2 - B,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventabilityt Case, Bloomington Sub-corridor, S

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains 

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freigh

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios 

Collision Type Like Trains

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passe

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freig

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one sub-corridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y ZAA AB AC AD AE AF

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 7 7 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300

Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 16 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500

Private 1 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 16 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 1 0 0.650

Private 6 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 16 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 1 0.800

Private 0 6 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 7 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120

Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 16 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain Diamond

Private 1 0.100 Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain

50 Public_gates_lights 16 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0077 0.0103 0.0201 0.0241 0.0020 0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Public_other 1 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0032 0.0043 0.0021 0.0026 0.0004 0.000000

Private 6 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0010 0.0014 0.0010 0.0012 0.0003 0.012866 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0035 0.0046 0.0025 0.0029 0.0004 0.002573 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0013 0.0017 0.0030 0.0037 0.0002 0.000000

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0004 0.0001 0.034144

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0010 0.0014 0.0010 0.0012 0.0003 0.032437

(conseq)

14.0 88.35 90.55 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 105

15.0 90.55 92.47 CP Adjacent (M) 1.92 40 60 60 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

16.0 92.47 94.97 Siding (M) 2.50 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 40 60 79 105

17.0 94.97 96.81 CP Adjacent (M) 1.84 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 1.29

18.0 96.81 100.28 Plain 3.47 50 79 79 105 40 2.17 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0077 0.0000 0.0169 0.0090

19.0 100.28 102.25 CP Adjacent (M) 1.97 40 60 60 79 50 4.9 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0032 0.0000 0.0024 0.0015

20.0 102.25 102.25 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0010 0.0000 0.0010 0.0006

21.0 102.25 104.60 CP Adjacent (M) 2.35 40 60 60 79 60 2.17 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0035 0.0000 0.0027 0.0016

22.0 104.60 106.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.83 50 79 79 105 79 4.9 7.07 2.17

23.0 106.43 108.83 Siding (M) 2.40 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 4.9 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0013 0.0026 0.0013

24.0 108.83 111.36 CP Adjacent (M) 2.53 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002

25.0 111.36 113.30 Plain 1.94 50 79 79 105 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0010 0.0010 0.0006

26.0 113.30 116.36 Plain 3.06 50 79 79 105 50 0

27.0 116.36 118.83 Plain 2.47 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0

28.0 118.83 121.40 CP Adjacent (M) 2.57 50 79 79 105 60 0 0 0

29.0 121.40 123.57 Siding (M) 2.17 40 60 79 79 79 0 0 0

30.0 123.57 124.38 Siding (M) 0.81 25 40 40 40 105 0 0 0

31.0 124.38 124.86 Siding (M) 0.48 25 40 40 40 Freight 25 0

40 6.24

50 8.77

Passenger 40 0 0 0

Length Check 36.5 36.5 60 6.24 6.24 0

79 8.77 8.77 6.24

105 0 0 8.77

Freight 25 0

40 0

50 0

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 000

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 000

Equipped Freight 1.43 2.28 105 0 0 0

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 13.14

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 000

79 13.14 13.14 0

Timeout (secs) 0.00 105 0 0 13.14

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 1.29

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 8.41

Fallback Mode 5.00 50 26.81

Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29

60 8.41 6.24 0

79 26.81 28.98 8.41

Seats 320.00 105 0 0 26.81

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Checking Totals 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00769 Incl 0.00769 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00006 320 0.6 192 0.0010 0.00002 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00319 Incl 0.00319 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00001 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00104 Incl 0.00104 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0 1 0.012866 0.000083 0.000539 0.000016 20.74

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00345 Incl 0.00345 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.0009 0.00003 0 1 0.002573 0.000017 0.000527 0.000016 16.61

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.00009 320 0.6 192 0.0004 0.00001 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.00007 320 0.6 192 0.0006 0.00001 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.00011 320 0.6 192 0.0009 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.0000 0.00006 0

0.00043 0.00420 0.00015 0 0.000099 0.001066 0.000032 37.35

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6423 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6423 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6423 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.012866 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6423 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.002573 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.01689 Incl 0.01689 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00091 320 0.6 192 0.042 0.0015 1802 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00240 Incl 0.00240 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00013 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 128 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00100 Incl 0.00100 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00005 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0000 53 0 0.012866 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00271 Incl 0.00271 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00015 320 0.6 192 0.013 0.0006 579 0 0.002573 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.00024 320 0.6 192 0.003 0.0001 109

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.00057 320 0.6 192 0.012 0.0004 503

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.00048 320 0.6 192 0.019 0.0003 1248

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.00068 320 0.6 192 0.028 0.0004 1780

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.007 0.0007 0

0.00322 0.12722 0.00420 6202 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00896 Incl 0.00896 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00154 320 0.6 192 0.126 0.0047 5390 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00147 Incl 0.00147 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00025 320 0.6 192 0.008 0.0004 442 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00064 Incl 0.00064 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00011 320 0.6 192 0.004 0.0002 192 0 0.012866 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00165 Incl 0.00165 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00028 320 0.6 192 0.046 0.0017 1984 0 0.002573 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.00078 320 0.6 192 0.014 0.0005 611

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.00180 320 0.6 192 0.066 0.0024 2835

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.00153 320 0.6 192 0.082 0.0013 7027

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.00218 320 0.6 192 0.117 0.0019 10029

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.030 0.0030 0

Total 0.00848 0.49393 0.01614 28510 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.01213 0.62535 0.02049 34713 0.000099 0.001066 0.000032 37

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00356 0.24461 0.00933 10571

Intrusion Collisions 0.00351 0.09520 0.00338 4057

Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275

Broken Rail 0.00297 0.14586 0.00234 11809

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.001303989 Incl 0.00130 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $1 0 0.034144 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000260798 Incl 0.00026 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.032437 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.001043191 Incl 0.00104 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.35 0.00936 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.10 0.00774 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00003 0.00000 0.000000 $4

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.06 0.05226 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00008 0.00000 0.000000 $13

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00007 0.000007 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0002 0.0001 0.00001 $18 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0026 Incl 0.00260 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00014 0.00015 0.000015 $38 1 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0003 Incl 0.00031 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00002 0.00002 0.000002 $4 1 0.034144 0.000219 0.000197 0.000020 49.35

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0010 Incl 0.00100 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00005 0.00000 0.000000 $6 1 0.032437 0.000208 0.000000 0.000000 23.34

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.35 0.00936 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00010 0.00002 0.000002 $3

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.10 0.00774 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00008 0.00002 0.000002 $2

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00017 0.00002 0.000002 $62

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.06 0.05226 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00054 0.00008 0.000008 $204

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00069 0.000069 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00110 0.0010 0.00010 $319 0.000428 0.000197 0.000020 72.68

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0013 Incl 0.00134 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00023 0.00039 0.000039 $97 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0002 Incl 0.00018 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00003 0.00004 0.000004 $11 0 0.034144 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0006 Incl 0.00064 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00011 0.00000 0.000000 $19 0 0.032437 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.35 0.00936 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00031 0.00011 0.000011 $14

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.10 0.00774 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00026 0.00009 0.000009 $11

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00053 0.00019 0.000019 $311

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.06 0.05226 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00173 0.00061 0.000061 $1,015

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00275 0.000275 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00320 0.0042 0.00042 $1,478 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.00446 0.0053 0.0005 $1,815 0.000428 0.000197 0.000020 $73

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00060 0.00061 0.00006 177

Intrusion Collisions 0.00077 0.00024 0.00002 30

Diamond Collisions 0.00043 0.00020 0.00002 73

Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377

Broken Rail 0.00236 0.00069 0.00007 1231

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0

Grade Crossing Collisions

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew InjuriesCrew Fatalitiesper 10 Years ($) Totals

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) ($)

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 7 36309 0.013 320 0.60 192 0.0068 0.0001 635

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00356 0.24461 0.00933 10571 63007

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00351 0.09520 0.00338 4057 23718

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000099 0.00107 0.00003 37 239

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275 23412

Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00297 0.14586 0.00234 11809 33411

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 16 82992 0.066 320 0.60 192 0.1338 0.0020 13013 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0 15156

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.00770 50207 125113

Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 5187 0.002 320 0.60 192 0.0031 0.0000 305

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 16 82992 0.091 320 0.60 192 0.3260 0.0048 31587 Total, All Scenarios 0.19766 1.14442 0.02822 84957 284057

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 1 5187 0.004 320 0.60 192 0.0148 0.0002 1436

Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 6 31122 0.009 320 0.60 192 0.0333 0.0005 3230 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00060 0.00061 0.00006 177 421

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 1.43 7 8654 0.001 0.00016 0.00001 26 Intrusion Collisions 0.00077 0.00024 0.00002 30 127

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00043 0.00020 0.00002 73 152

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377 461

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 1.43 16 19780 0.006 0.00148 0.00008 297 Broken Rail 0.00236 0.00069 0.00007 1231 1507

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0 1402

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 1.43 1 1236 0.000 0.00003 0.00000 6 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.00025 983 2235

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 1.43 16 19780 0.007 0.00278 0.00014 555

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 1.43 1 1236 0.000 0.00014 0.00001 29 Total, All Scenarios 0.02062 0.01039 0.00080 2871 6304

Private 0.12 0% 0.120 1.43 6 7417 0.001 0.00035 0.00002 69

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 7 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.21828 1.15481 0.02902 87827 290361

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 16 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 3000000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 16 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 6 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.185 0.518 0.008 50207

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.016 0.005 0.000 983

Train Type 0.201 0.52 0.01 51189

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Worksheet 3 - B,N,S: - Risk Calculations - Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventability Case, Bloomington Sub-corridor, Summer

Representative Speed 50 mph

Collision Frequencies for Passenger + Unequipped Freight Train 

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 105 mph

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Collision Scenario (From Coll Matrix)

Representative Speed 79 mph

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed (mph) Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies by Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Passenger

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Freight

Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total Passenger + Freight

Freight Passenger

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Rfepresentative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings

Per 10 years

Data exported to the 

Results Summary 

worksheet

Mauve cells contain data 

imported from previous 

worksheet in a group of three 

worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating 

state.

Casualties and damage in 

Table 3.1 are per accident, 

except for Work Zone 

Violations which are per 

million train-miles

All train-to-train collision 

frequencies are in units of 

trains in collisions per 

million train-miles 

operated in the subcorridor by all train types.
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 1671 1671 0 0.668 58 0 1275 0 2946 0 2946

Appl'n Time (sec) 13.8 40 3686 1619 2068 0.668 14 77 308 1692 1927 3760 5686Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 5452 3384 2068 0.668 36 77 791 1692 4176 3760 7935Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 1452 1452 0 1.293 48 0 1065 0 2517 0 2517

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 3177 3177 0 1.293 71 0 1565 0 4742 0 4742

Coefficient B 0 79 5433 3035 2398 1.293 25 68 541 1499 3576 3896 7472

Safety Factor 1.25 105 9493 7096 2398 1.293 54 68 1190 1499 8286 3896 12182

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 3 Frt Red'd Consq 35 1125 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response (sec 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start End Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass 

Number (milepost (milepost) Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops 

(Consq*) (Other)

32.0 124.9 126.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.6 8659.2 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 Bloom Yard 2946 2517 2517 0 0 0 5713 6142 6142 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33.0 126.5 126.5 Diamond 0.0 0.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.034.0 126.5 128.8 CP Adjacent (M) 2.3 11932.8 30.0 50.0 50.0 25.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 2946 4742 3576 0 0 3896 8987 7191 4461 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35.0 128.8 131.0 Plain 2.2 11616.0 60.0 79.0 90.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4176 3576 3576 3896 3896 3896 3544 4144 4144 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36.0 131.0 133.7 Plain 2.8 14572.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 60.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 6501 7101 2391 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37.0 133.7 136.9 Plain 3.2 16790.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3896 8855 9319 4609 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38.0 136.9 138.6 CP Adjacent (M) 1.7 9134.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 849 1063 1663 0 0 0 3047 0 0 462 0 0 00039.0 138.6 141.3 Siding (M) McLean (sig'd) 2.7 14097.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 McLean 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 6026 6626 1916 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40.0 141.3 143.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.0 10824.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 2538 2752 3352 0 0 0 1358 0 0 462 0 0 00041.0 143.4 148.3 Plain 5.0 26136.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 60.0 79.0 79.0 2.0 S Fertilizer, Atlanta 4176 4742 3576 0 0 3896 21960 21394 18664 00000000000

42.0 148.3 151.0 Plain 2.7 14044.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 E Lincoln Grain 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5973 6573 1863 00000000000

43.0 151.0 153.6 CP Adjacent (U) 2.6 13728.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Kruger 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5656 6256 1546 00000000000

44.0 153.6 155.6 Siding (U) Elkhart (Unsig'd) 2.0 10612.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 4176 4742 3576 0 0 3896 6437 5871 3141 00000000000

45.0 155.6 155.6 Diamond 0.0 0.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.046.0 155.6 157.3 CP Adjacent (U) 1.7 8923.2 50.0 70.0 70.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 1.0 Havana Ind. Lincoln 4176 4742 3576 3760 0 3896 988 4182 1452 00000000000

47.0 157.3 160.1 Plain 2.8 14731.2 60.0 79.0 90.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4176 3576 3576 3760 3896 3896 6796 7260 7260 00000000000

48.0 160.1 162.1 Plain 2.1 10876.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 2591 2942 3405 0 0 0 1305 0 0 462 0 0 000

49.0 162.1 164.0 Plain 1.9 10190.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 1905 2255 2719 0 0 0 1991 0 0 462 0 0 000

50.0 164.0 166.2 Plain 2.1 11193.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 2908 3258 3722 0 0 0 988 0 0 462 0 0 0 0 0 

51.0 166.2 168.3 CP Adjacent (U) 2.2 11510.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Elkhart Grain 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3225 3575 4039 0 0 0 671 0 0 4620 0 0 0 0 

52.0 168.3 170.4 Siding (U) Elkhart (Unsig'd) 2.1 10876.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 2591 2942 3405 0 0 0 1305 0 0 462 0 0 000

53.0 170.4 172.3 CP Adjacent (U) 1.9 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 1958 2308 2772 0 0 0 1939 0 0 462 0 0 000

54.0 172.3 175.8 Plain 3.5 18480.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3896 10545 11008 6298 00000000000

55.0 175.8 179.5 Plain 3.7 19272.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4176 3576 3576 3760 3896 3896 11337 11800 11800 00000000000

56.0 179.5 181.0 CP Adjacent (M) 1.5 7920.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4176 3576 3576 3744 3896 3896 0 448 448 15 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Check Total 56.1

Train Type Representative 

Speed

(mph)

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 2.7 14097.6

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 2.7 14097.6 2.7 14097.6 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 2.7 14097.6

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 4.1 21489.6

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 2.0 10612.8 2.0 10612.8 0.0 0

79 2.1 10876.8 2.1 10876.8 2.0 10612.8

105 0.0 0 2.1 10876.8

Freight 25 3.9 20592

40 0.0 050 5.3 27878.4

Passenger 40 1.6 8659.2 1.6 8659.2 1.6 8659.2

60 2.3 11932.8 2.3 11932.8 0.0 0

79 5.3 27878.4 5.3 27878.4 3.8 19852.8

105 0.0 0 3.8 19958.4

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 8.4 44404.8

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 1.7 8923.2 1.7 8923.2 0.0 0

79 6.7 35481.6 6.7 35481.6 1.7 8923.2

105 0.0 0 6.7 35481.6

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 31.8 167904

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 5.0 26136 2.8 14572.8 0.0 0

79 26.9 141768 29.0 153331.2 13.6 71755.2

105 0.0 0 18.2 96148.8

Check Total 56.1 56.1 56.1 56.1

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 14097.6Number Siding (M) Segments 1 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 6026 6626 1916

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.296 0.254 0.588 0.276 0.276 0.276 0.427 0.470 0.136HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.281 0.241 0.558 0.263 0.263 0.263 0.506 0.547 0.229 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 21489.6Number Siding (M) Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 8351 8317 11861 3760 3896 6487 9379 9276 3141

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.389 0.387 0.552 0.175 0.181 0.302 0.436 0.432 0.146HS Pass 0 652 1848

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.369 0.368 0.524 0.166 0.172 0.313 0.515 0.510 0.213 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (M) Segments (ft) 48470.4Number CP Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C FT0 Freight 0 3 2497 18418 17985 26239 11537 11688 11179 18516 18797 11052

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.380 0.371 0.541 0.238 0.241 0.231 0.382 0.388 0.228HS Pass 0 772 1728

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.361 0.353 0.514 0.226 0.229 0.250 0.463 0.468 0.286 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (U) Segments (ft) 44404.8Number CP Adjacent Segments 4 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 16702 15468 28432 15175 11688 12975 12527 17248 2998

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.376 0.348 0.640 0.342 0.263 0.292 0.282 0.388 0.068HS Pass 0 652 1848

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.357 0.331 0.608 0.325 0.250 0.304 0.368 0.469 0.138 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Plain Track Segments (ft) 167904Number CP Adjacent Segments 11 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 18418 17985 26239 000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.110 0.107 0.156 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000HS Pass 0 389 2111

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.104 0.102 0.148 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.100 0.100 0.084 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 40128.0Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 4 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 10111 10983 10557 4135 0 7193 25882 29145 22378

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.252 0.274 0.263 0.103 0.000 0.179 0.645 0.726 0.558HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.239 0.260 0.250 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.713 0.790 0.630

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Worksheet 1-Sp,N: IDOT Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventability Case, Springfield Su

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance (ft) Total Zone Lengths (ft)

Sight Distance (ft)

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Lengths in Feet

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals

Zone C within Sight 

Overlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zoneFraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone B Totals

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (including free running in TO) (ft)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prevention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop 

Full Prevention

Overlap of Stopping Distance Overlap of Zone A

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Springfield Sub-Corridor, MP 124.9 (Bloomington) - MP 181.0 (Ridgely)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Braking Duration (secs)

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Freight

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Plain Track

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph) Industry Siding 

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.62 0.50 0.50 0.31 0 0.31 0 0.5 0.5 0.31 0 0.31 0 0.8 0.2 0.496 0 0.124 0 0.8 0.2 0.496 0 0.124 0 0.70 0.3

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.30 0.50 0.50 0.15 0 0.15 0 0.5 0.5 0.15 0 0.15 0 0.7 0.3 0.21 0 0.09 0 0.7 0.3 0.21 0 0.09 0 0.40 0.6(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.08 0.50 0.50 0.04 0 0.04 0 0.5 0.5 0.04 0 0.04 0 0.7 0.3 0.056 0 0.024 0 0.7 0.3 0.056 0 0.024 0 0.50 0.5

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 01.00 0.0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00.00 1.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00.00 1.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.762 0 0.238 0 1 0.762 0 0.238 0 1 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.281 0.241 0.558 0.263 0.263 0.263 0.506 0.547 0.229Siding (U) 0.369 0.368 0.524 0.166 0.172 0.313 0.515 0.510 0.213CP Adjacent (M) 0.361 0.353 0.514 0.226 0.229 0.250 0.463 0.468 0.286CP Adjacent (U) 0.357 0.331 0.608 0.325 0.250 0.304 0.368 0.469 0.138Plain Track 0.104 0.102 0.148 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.100 0.100 0.084Diamonds 0.239 0.260 0.250 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.713 0.790 0.630

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

Pass-TBE Freight 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 70% 70% 23% 70% 21% 70% 29% 70% 14% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 70% 70% 23% 70% 21% 70% 29% 70% 14% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 70% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 70% 70% 51% 70% 0% 70% 51% 70% 0% 70% 46% 70% 0% 70% 37% 70% 0% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0056 0.0056 0.0074 0.0074 0.0149 0.0037 0.0179 0.0045 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0014 0.0014 0.0018 0.0018 0.0032 0.0014 0.0038 0.0016 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0069 0.0000 0.0069 0.0000 0.0092 0.0000 0.0092 0.0000 0.0180 0.0000 0.0051 0.0000 0.0216 0.0000 0.0061 0.0000 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0069 0.0069 0.0000 0.0000 0.0092 0.0092 0.0000 0.0000 0.0180 0.0180 0.0000 0.0000 0.0216 0.0216 0.0000 0.0000 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0028 0.0028 0.0037 0.0037 0.0019 0.0019 0.0022 0.0022 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 0.0000 0.0014 0.0014 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0000 0.0012 0.0012 0.0000 0.00

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0031 0.0031 0.0000 0.0000 0.0041 0.0041 0.0000 0.0000 0.0022 0.0022 0.0000 0.0000 0.0026 0.0026 0.0000 0.0000 0.00

Total 0.0139 0.0069 0.0000 0.0069 0.0000 0.0185 0.0092 0.0000 0.0092 0.0000 0.0231 0.0180 0.0000 0.0051 0.0000 0.0277 0.0216 0.0000 0.0061 0.0000 0.00

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0014 0.0014 0.0018 0.0018 0.0032 0.0014 0.0038 0.0016 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0007 0.0007 0.0010 0.0010 0.0017 0.0007 0.0020 0.0009 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0021 0.0000 0.0021 0.0000 0.0028 0.0000 0.0028 0.0000 0.0048 0.0000 0.0021 0.0000 0.0058 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0021 0.0021 0.0000 0.0028 0.0028 0.0000 0.0048 0.0048 0.0000 0.0058 0.0058 0.0000 0.00

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0006 0.00063 0.00000 0.0008 0.00084 0.00000 0.0007 0.00070 0.00000 0.0008 0.00084 0.00000 0.00

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0014 b 0.00144 0.00000 0.0019 0.00192 0.00000 0.0014 0.00137 0.00000 0.0016 0.00165 0.00000 0.00

Total 0.0041 0.0021 0.0000 0.0021 0.0000 0.0055 0.0028 0.0000 0.0028 0.0000 0.0000 0.0069 0.0048 0.0000 0.0021 0.0000 0.0083 0.0058 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 0.00

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0180 0.0800 0.0240 0.1000 0.0300 0.1200 0.0360 0.00

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Collision Distribut

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On 

Worksheet 2 - Sp,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventability Case, Springfield Sub-corridor, Rest 

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains 

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freigh

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios 

Collision Type Like Trains

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passe

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freig

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one sub-corridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y ZAA AB AC AD AE AF

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 2

Public_other 0 0 0.300

Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 14 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500

Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 5 1 0.650

Private 5 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 13 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 4 0.800

Private 0 4 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120

Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 0 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 2

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain Diamond

Private 0 0.100 Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain

50 Public_gates_lights 26 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0069 0.0092 0.0180 0.0216 0.0018 0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Public_other 5 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0028 0.0037 0.0019 0.0022 0.0003 0.000000

Private 5 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0011 0.0014 0.0010 0.0012 0.0003 0.012750 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0031 0.0041 0.0022 0.0026 0.0004 0.002550 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0021 0.0028 0.0048 0.0058 0.0004 0.000000

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0006 0.0008 0.0007 0.0008 0.0001 0.034423

32 $124.86 $126.50 CP Adjacent (M) 1.64 25 40 40 40 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0014 0.0019 0.0014 0.0016 0.0003 0.032623

33 $126.50 $126.50 Diamond 0.00 25 40 40 40

34 $126.50 $128.76 CP Adjacent (M) 2.26 25 60 60 79

35 $128.76 $130.96 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

36 $130.96 $133.72 Plain 2.76 50 79 60 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 40 60 79 105

37 $133.72 $136.90 Plain 3.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0

38 $136.90 $138.63 CP Adjacent (M) 1.73 50 79 79 105 40 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0180 0.0000 0.0070 0.0085

39 $138.63 $141.30 Siding (M) 2.67 50 79 79 105 50 2.67 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0019 0.0000 0.0011 0.0013

40 $141.30 $143.35 CP Adjacent (M) 2.05 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0010 0.0000 0.0006 0.0007

41 $143.35 $148.30 Plain 4.95 50 60 79 79 60 0 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0022 0.0000 0.0012 0.0015

42 $148.30 $150.96 Plain 2.66 50 79 79 105 79 2.67 2.67 0

43 $150.96 $153.56 CP Adjacent (U) 2.60 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.67 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0048 0.0000 0.0020

44 $153.56 $155.57 Siding (U) 2.01 50 60 60 79 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0007 0.0000 0.0004

45 $155.57 $155.57 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0014 0.0000 0.0008

46 $155.57 $157.26 CP Adjacent (U) 1.69 50 60 60 79 50 4.07

47 $157.26 $160.05 Plain 2.79 50 79 79 79 Passenger 40 0 0 0

48 $160.05 $162.11 Plain 2.06 50 79 79 105 60 2.01 2.01 0

49 $162.11 $164.04 Plain 1.93 50 79 79 105 79 2.06 2.06 2.01

50 $164.04 $166.16 Plain 2.12 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.06

51 $166.16 $168.34 CP Adjacent (U) 2.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 3.9

52 $168.34 $170.40 Siding (U) 2.06 50 79 79 105 40 0

53 $170.40 $172.34 CP Adjacent (U) 1.94 50 79 79 105 50 5.28

54 $172.34 $175.84 Plain 3.50 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

55 $175.84 $179.49 Plain 3.65 50 79 79 79 60 2.26 2.26 0

56 $179.49 $180.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.50 50 79 79 79 79 5.28 5.28 3.76

105 0 0 3.78

Freight 25 0

40 0

50 8.41

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 1.69 1.69 0

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 6.72 6.72 1.69

Equipped Freight 1.73 3.16 105 0 0 6.72

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91 274 50 31.8

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 4.95 2.76 0

79 26.85 29.04 13.59

Timeout (secs) 0 105 0 0 18.21

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 3.9

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 0

Fallback Mode 5 50 52.23

Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

60 10.91 8.72 0

79 43.58 45.77 21.05

Seats 320 105 0 0 33.44

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Check Totals 56.13 56.13 56.13 56.13

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.01802 Incl 0.01802 9.16 23843 1.64 39103 0.00070 320 0.6 192 0.0112 0.00027 0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00186 Incl 0.00186 9.16 23843 1.64 39103 0.00007 320 0.6 192 0.0005 0.00001 0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00101 Incl 0.00101 9.16 23843 1.64 39103 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0003 0.00001 0 2 0.012750 0.000608 0.003969 0.000117 152.61

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00220 Incl 0.00220 9.16 23843 1.64 39103 0.00009 320 0.6 192 0.0027 0.00008 0 2 0.002550 0.000122 0.003876 0.000117 122.21

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.00014 320 0.6 192 0.0004 0.00001 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.00033 320 0.6 192 0.0017 0.00006 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.00028 320 0.6 192 0.0024 0.00002 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.00040 320 0.6 192 0.0034 0.00003 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.0021 0.00021 0

0.00206 0.02462 0.00071 1 0.000730 0.007845 0.000233 274.83

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.012750 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.002550 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00699 Incl 0.00699 9.16 23843 21.05 501905 0.00351 320 0.6 192 0.162 0.0057 6930 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00108 Incl 0.00108 9.16 23843 21.05 501905 0.00054 320 0.6 192 0.010 0.0005 537 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00059 Incl 0.00059 9.16 23843 21.05 501905 0.00030 320 0.6 192 0.006 0.0003 293 0 0.012750 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00124 Incl 0.00124 9.16 23843 21.05 501905 0.00062 320 0.6 192 0.057 0.0025 2468 0 0.002550 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.00184 320 0.6 192 0.019 0.0007 818

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.00426 320 0.6 192 0.088 0.0031 3788

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.00362 320 0.6 192 0.146 0.0023 9403

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.00516 320 0.6 192 0.208 0.0033 13418

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.054 0.0054 0

0.01985 0.74956 0.02379 37654 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00848 Incl 0.00848 9.16 23843 33.44 797326 0.00676 320 0.6 192 0.552 0.0208 23622 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00129 Incl 0.00129 9.16 23843 33.44 797326 0.00103 320 0.6 192 0.034 0.0016 1801 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00068 Incl 0.00068 9.16 23843 33.44 797326 0.00054 320 0.6 192 0.018 0.0008 948 0 0.012750 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00149 Incl 0.00149 9.16 23843 33.44 797326 0.00118 320 0.6 192 0.191 0.0073 8279 0 0.002550 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.00292 320 0.6 192 0.054 0.0019 2295

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.00677 320 0.6 192 0.248 0.0088 10647

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.00574 320 0.6 192 0.309 0.0050 26392

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.00820 320 0.6 192 0.441 0.0071 37664

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.114 0.0114 0

Total 0.03315 1.95993 0.06463 111647 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.05506 2.73411 0.08913 149303 0.000730 0.007845 0.000233 275

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.01539 1.04349 0.03975 44878

Intrusion Collisions 0.01626 0.41145 0.01459 17547

Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0.00733 35795

Broken Rail 0.01376 0.65224 0.01046 51083

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0.01699 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.004828762 Incl 0.00483 9.16 23843 3.9 92990 0.00045 0.00019 0.000019 $47 0 0.034423 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000697321 Incl 0.00070 9.16 23843 3.9 92990 0.00006 0.00002 0.000002 $6 0 0.032623 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.001372148 Incl 0.00137 9.16 23843 3.9 92990 0.00013 0.00000 0.000000 $6

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.35 0.00936 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00030 0.00003 0.000003 $3

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.10 0.00774 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00025 0.00002 0.000002 $3

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00051 0.00003 0.000003 $77

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.06 0.05226 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00168 0.00009 0.000009 $251

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00135 0.000135 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0034 0.0017 0.00017 $393 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.034423 0.001642 0.001477 0.000148 369.34

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.032623 0.001556 0.000000 0.000000 174.24

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.35 0.00936 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.10 0.00774 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.06 0.05226 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 0.00000 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.003197 0.001477 0.000148 543.58

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0020 Incl 0.00196 9.16 23843 52.23 1245345 0.00244 0.00415 0.000415 $1,031 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0004 Incl 0.00038 9.16 23843 52.23 1245345 0.00047 0.00066 0.000066 $166 0 0.034423 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0008 Incl 0.00084 9.16 23843 52.23 1245345 0.00104 0.00000 0.000000 $183 0 0.032623 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.35 0.00936 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.00402 0.00141 0.000141 $177

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.10 0.00774 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.00333 0.00116 0.000116 $146

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.00687 0.00241 0.000241 $4,028

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.06 0.05226 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.02245 0.00786 0.000786 $13,158

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.03566 0.003566 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.04063 0.0533 0.00533 $18,889 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.04401 0.0550 0.0055 $19,282 0.003197 0.001477 0.000148 $544

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00460 0.00503 0.00050 1439

Intrusion Collisions 0.00790 0.00262 0.00026 329

Diamond Collisions 0.00320 0.00148 0.00015 544

Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0.00024 4105

Broken Rail 0.02413 0.00795 0.00080 13409

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0.00370 0

Grade Crossing Collisions

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew InjuriesCrew Fatalitiesper 10 Years ($) Totals

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) ($)

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01539 1.04349 0.03975 44878 268485

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.01626 0.41145 0.01459 17547 102471

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000730 0.00784 0.00023 275 1760

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0.00733 35795 103495

Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.01376 0.65224 0.01046 51083 147697

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 16 249888 0.200 320 0.60 192 0.4030 0.0060 39182 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0.01699 0 67959

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 1 15618 0.010 320 0.60 192 0.0205 0.0003 1990 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 0.02191 143142 356461

Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 15618 0.005 320 0.60 192 0.0094 0.0001 918

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 13 203034 0.223 320 0.60 192 0.7976 0.0118 77275 Total, All Scenarios 0.56259 4.21788 0.11127 292720 1048327

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 4 62472 0.050 320 0.60 192 0.1785 0.0026 17292

Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 4 62472 0.019 320 0.60 192 0.0669 0.0010 6485 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00460 0.00503 0.00050 1439 3451

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 3.16 3 24676 0.004 0.00044 0.00002 74 Intrusion Collisions 0.00790 0.00262 0.00026 329 1377

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00320 0.00148 0.00015 544 1135

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0.00024 4105 5079

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Broken Rail 0.02413 0.00795 0.00080 13409 16590

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0.00370 0 14802

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0.00190 7427 16859

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 3.16 26 213862 0.077 0.03003 0.00154 6005

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 3.16 5 41127 0.012 0.00481 0.00025 962 Total, All Scenarios 0.14517 0.09373 0.00756 27253 59293

Private 0.12 0% 0.120 3.16 5 41127 0.005 0.00192 0.00010 385

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 3 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.70776 4.31160 0.11883 319973 1107620

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 bbbb

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 3000000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 26 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 5 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 5 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.507 1.476 0.022 143142

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.098 0.037 0.002 7427

Train Type 0.605 1.51 0.02 150569

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Collision Scenario (From Coll Matrix)

Representative Speed 79 mph

Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 40 mph

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Worksheet 3 - Sp,N,R: - Risk Calculations - Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventability, Springfield Subcorridor, Rest of Year

Collision Frequencies for Passenger + Unequipped Freight Train 

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 105 mph

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Trips/Day

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Representative Speed 25 mph

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies by Representative Speed (mph)

Representative Speed 50 mph

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Passenger

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Freight

Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total Passenger + Freight

Freight Passenger

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings

Percent Train-Miles in

Data exported to the 

Results Summary 

worksheet

Mauve cells contain data 

imported from previous 

worksheet in a group of three 

worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating 

state.

Casualties and damage in 

Table 3.1 are per accident, 

except for Work Zone 

Violations which are per 

million train-miles

All train-to-train collision 

frequencies are in units of 

trains in collisions per 

million train-miles 

operated in the subcorridor by all train types.
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.80 0.50 0.50 0.4 0 0.4 0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0 0.4 0 0.8 0.2 0.64 0 0.16 0 0.8 0.2 0.64 0 0.16 0 0.70 0.3

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.20 0.50 0.50 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.7 0.3 0.14 0 0.06 0 0.7 0.3 0.14 0 0.06 0 0.40 0.6

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.500 0 0 0 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 01.00 0.0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00.00 1.0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 00.00 1.0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.50 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.3 0 0 0 00.50 0.5

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.78 0 0.22 0 1 0.78 0 0.22 0 1 

bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.281 0.241 0.558 0.263 0.263 0.263 0.506 0.547 0.229Siding (U) 0.369 0.368 0.524 0.166 0.172 0.313 0.515 0.510 0.213CP Adjacent (M) 0.361 0.353 0.514 0.226 0.229 0.250 0.463 0.468 0.286CP Adjacent (U) 0.357 0.331 0.608 0.325 0.250 0.304 0.368 0.469 0.138Plain Track 0.104 0.102 0.148 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.100 0.100 0.084Diamonds 0.239 0.260 0.250 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.713 0.790 0.630

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

Pass-TBE Freight 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 70% 70% 23% 70% 21% 70% 29% 70% 14% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 70% 70% 23% 70% 21% 70% 29% 70% 14% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 70% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 0% 70% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 70% 70% 51% 70% 0% 70% 51% 70% 0% 70% 46% 70% 0% 70% 37% 70% 0% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0072 0.0072 0.0096 0.0096 0.0192 0.0048 0.0230 0.0058 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0009 0.0009 0.0012 0.0012 0.0021 0.0009 0.0025 0.0011 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0081 0.0000 0.0081 0.0000 0.0108 0.0000 0.0108 0.0000 0.0213 0.0000 0.0057 0.0000 0.0256 0.0000 0.0068 0.0000 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0081 0.0081 0.0000 0.0000 0.0108 0.0108 0.0000 0.0000 0.0213 0.0213 0.0000 0.0000 0.0256 0.0256 0.0000 0.0000 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0036 0.0036 0.0048 0.0048 0.0024 0.0024 0.0029 0.0029 0.00

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0007 0.0007 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0000 0.0007 0.0007 0.0000 0.0008 0.0008 0.0000 0.00

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0038 0.0038 0.0000 0.0000 0.0050 0.0050 0.0000 0.0000 0.0026 0.0026 0.0000 0.0000 0.0032 0.0032 0.0000 0.0000 0.00

Total 0.0162 0.0081 0.0000 0.0081 0.0000 0.0216 0.0108 0.0000 0.0108 0.0000 0.0270 0.0213 0.0000 0.0057 0.0000 0.0324 0.0256 0.0000 0.0068 0.0000 0.00

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/S

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0009 0.0009 0.0012 0.0012 0.0021 0.0009 0.0025 0.0011 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0009 0.0000 0.0009 0.0000 0.0012 0.0000 0.0012 0.0000 0.0021 0.0000 0.0009 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Tota

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0009 0.0009 0.0000 0.0012 0.0012 0.0000 0.0021 0.0021 0.0000 0.0025 0.0025 0.0000 0.00

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0002 0.00018 0.00000 0.0002 0.00024 0.00000 0.0002 0.00023 0.00000 0.0003 0.00027 0.00000 0.00

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0007 b 0.00072 0.00000 0.0010 0.00096 0.00000 0.0007 0.00068 0.00000 0.0008 0.00081 0.00000 0.00

Total 0.0018 0.0009 0.0000 0.0009 0.0000 0.0024 0.0012 0.0000 0.0012 0.0000 0.0000 0.0030 0.0021 0.0000 0.0009 0.0000 0.0036 0.0025 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 0.00

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0180 0.0800 0.0240 0.1000 0.0300 0.1200 0.0360 0.00

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freig

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freigh

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passe

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios 

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Worksheet 2 - Sp,N,S: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventability Case, Springfield Sub-corridor, Su

Table 2.5a: Freight Trains In Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On 

Collision Distribut

Head On Collision Distribut

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On

Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Collision Distribution Head On Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribut

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Mauve cells contain data imported from Worksheet 1 in this group of three worksheets covering this sub-corridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y ZAA AB AC AD AE AF

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 2

Public_other 0 0 0.300

Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 14 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500

Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 5 1 0.650

Private 5 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 13 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 4 0.800

Private 0 4 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120

Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 0 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 2

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain Diamond

Private 0 0.100 Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M) CP Adj (U) Plain

50 Public_gates_lights 26 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0081 0.0108 0.0213 0.0256 0.0022 0.000000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Public_other 5 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0036 0.0048 0.0024 0.0029 0.0004 0.000000

Private 5 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0007 0.0010 0.0007 0.0008 0.0002 0.012750 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Check Totals 39 39 39 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0038 0.0050 0.0026 0.0032 0.0005 0.002550 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0009 0.0012 0.0021 0.0025 0.0001 0.000000

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0000 0.034423

32 $124.86 $126.50 CP Adjacent (M) 1.64 25 40 40 40 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0007 0.0010 0.0007 0.0008 0.0002 0.032623

33 $126.50 $126.50 Diamond 0.00 25 40 40 40

34 $126.50 $128.76 CP Adjacent (M) 2.26 25 60 60 79

35 $128.76 $130.96 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

36 $130.96 $133.72 Plain 2.76 50 79 60 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 40 60 79 105

37 $133.72 $136.90 Plain 3.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0

38 $136.90 $138.63 CP Adjacent (M) 1.73 50 79 79 105 40 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0213 0.0000 0.0083 0.0100

39 $138.63 $141.30 Siding (M) 2.67 50 79 79 105 50 2.67 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0024 0.0000 0.0014 0.0017

40 $141.30 $143.35 CP Adjacent (M) 2.05 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0007 0.0000 0.0004 0.0005

41 $143.35 $148.30 Plain 4.95 50 60 79 79 60 0 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0026 0.0000 0.0015 0.0018

42 $148.30 $150.96 Plain 2.66 50 79 79 105 79 2.67 2.67 0

43 $150.96 $153.56 CP Adjacent (U) 2.60 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.67 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0021 0.0000 0.0008

44 $153.56 $155.57 Siding (U) 2.01 50 60 60 79 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0002 0.0000 0.0001

45 $155.57 $155.57 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0007 0.0000 0.0004

46 $155.57 $157.26 CP Adjacent (U) 1.69 50 60 60 79 50 4.07

47 $157.26 $160.05 Plain 2.79 50 79 79 79 Passenger 40 0 0 0

48 $160.05 $162.11 Plain 2.06 50 79 79 105 60 2.01 2.01 0

49 $162.11 $164.04 Plain 1.93 50 79 79 105 79 2.06 2.06 2.01

50 $164.04 $166.16 Plain 2.12 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.06

51 $166.16 $168.34 CP Adjacent (U) 2.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 3.9

52 $168.34 $170.40 Siding (U) 2.06 50 79 79 105 40 0

53 $170.40 $172.34 CP Adjacent (U) 1.94 50 79 79 105 50 5.28

54 $172.34 $175.84 Plain 3.50 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

55 $175.84 $179.49 Plain 3.65 50 79 79 79 60 2.26 2.26 0

56 $179.49 $180.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.50 50 79 79 79 79 5.28 5.28 3.76

105 0 0 3.78

Freight 25 0

40 0

50 8.41

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 1.69 1.69 0

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 6.72 6.72 1.69

Equipped Freight 1.73 3.16 105 0 0 6.72

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91 274 50 31.8

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 4.95 2.76 0

79 26.85 29.04 13.59

Timeout (secs) 0 105 0 0 18.21

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 3.9

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 0

Fallback Mode 5 50 52.23

Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

60 10.91 8.72 0

79 43.58 45.77 21.05

Seats 320 105 0 0 33.44

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Check Totals 56.13 56.13 56.13 56.13

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.02129 Incl 0.02129 7.73 6683 1.64 10959 0.00023 320 0.6 192 0.0037 0.00009 0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00240 Incl 0.00240 7.73 6683 1.64 10959 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00001 0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00067 Incl 0.00067 7.73 6683 1.64 10959 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 2 0.012750 0.000170 0.001112 0.000033 42.77

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00262 Incl 0.00262 7.73 6683 1.64 10959 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.0009 0.00003 0 2 0.002550 0.000034 0.001086 0.000033 34.25

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.00005 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.00011 320 0.6 192 0.0006 0.00002 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.00009 320 0.6 192 0.0008 0.00001 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.00013 320 0.6 192 0.0011 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.0007 0.00007 0

0.00068 0.00815 0.00024 0 0.000204 0.002199 0.000065 77.03

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.012750 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.002550 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00828 Incl 0.00828 7.73 6683 21.05 140668 0.00117 320 0.6 192 0.054 0.0019 2302 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00140 Incl 0.00140 7.73 6683 21.05 140668 0.00020 320 0.6 192 0.004 0.0002 194 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00039 Incl 0.00039 7.73 6683 21.05 140668 0.00006 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0000 55 0 0.012750 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00151 Incl 0.00151 7.73 6683 21.05 140668 0.00021 320 0.6 192 0.019 0.0008 837 0 0.002550 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.00061 320 0.6 192 0.006 0.0002 272

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.00142 320 0.6 192 0.029 0.0010 1258

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.00120 320 0.6 192 0.048 0.0008 3123

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.00171 320 0.6 192 0.069 0.0011 4456

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.018 0.0018 0

0.00657 0.24884 0.00789 12496 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.01003 Incl 0.01003 7.73 6683 33.44 223466 0.00224 320 0.6 192 0.183 0.0069 7835 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00167 Incl 0.00167 7.73 6683 33.44 223466 0.00037 320 0.6 192 0.012 0.0006 651 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00045 Incl 0.00045 7.73 6683 33.44 223466 0.00010 320 0.6 192 0.003 0.0002 177 0 0.012750 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00180 Incl 0.00180 7.73 6683 33.44 223466 0.00040 320 0.6 192 0.065 0.0025 2806 0 0.002550 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.35 0.00559 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.00097 320 0.6 192 0.018 0.0006 762

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.10 0.01296 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.00225 320 0.6 192 0.082 0.0029 3536

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.00191 320 0.6 192 0.103 0.0016 8765

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.06 0.01570 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.00272 320 0.6 192 0.146 0.0024 12509

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.038 0.0038 0

Total 0.01097 0.65042 0.02143 37042 0.000000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.01822 0.90740 0.02956 49539 0.000204 0.002199 0.000065 77

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00504 0.34592 0.01316 14858

Intrusion Collisions 0.00540 0.13665 0.00485 5828

Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0.00244 11888

Broken Rail 0.00457 0.21662 0.00348 16965

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0.00564 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions Injuries Fatalities Damage

(mph) Sub-scenarios per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.002099462 Incl 0.00210 7.73 6683 3.9 26062 0.00005 0.00002 0.000002 $6 0 0.034423 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000224942 Incl 0.00022 7.73 6683 3.9 26062 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $1 0 0.032623 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.000674827 Incl 0.00067 7.73 6683 3.9 26062 0.00002 0.00000 0.000000 $1

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.35 0.00936 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00005 0.00000 0.000000 $1

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.10 0.00774 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00005 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00009 0.00001 0.000001 $14

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.06 0.05226 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00030 0.00002 0.000002 $46

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00024 0.000024 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0006 0.0003 0.00003 $68 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.034423 0.000460 0.000414 0.000041 103.51

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.032623 0.000436 0.000000 0.000000 48.83

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.35 0.00936 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.10 0.00774 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.06 0.05226 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.000896 0.000414 0.000041 152.35

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0008 Incl 0.00085 7.73 6683 52.23 349031 0.00030 0.00050 0.000050 $124 0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0001 Incl 0.00012 7.73 6683 52.23 349031 0.00004 0.00006 0.000006 $14 0 0.034423 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0004 Incl 0.00042 7.73 6683 52.23 349031 0.00015 0.00000 0.000000 $26 0 0.032623 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.35 0.00936 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00073 0.00026 0.000026 $32

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.10 0.00774 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00060 0.00021 0.000021 $27

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00125 0.00044 0.000044 $732

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.06 0.05226 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00408 0.00143 0.000143 $2,392

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00648 0.000648 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00715 0.0094 0.00094 $3,348 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00

Overall Totals 0.00773 0.0097 0.0010 $3,416 0.000896 0.000414 0.000041 $152

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00056 0.00058 0.00006 172

Intrusion Collisions 0.00144 0.00048 0.00005 60

Diamond Collisions 0.00090 0.00041 0.00004 152

Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0.00004 746

Broken Rail 0.00439 0.00145 0.00014 2438

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0.00067 0

Grade Crossing Collisions

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew InjuriesCrew Fatalitiesper 10 Years ($) Totals

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) ($)

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00504 0.34592 0.01316 14858 88937

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00540 0.13665 0.00485 5828 34032

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000204 0.00220 0.00007 77 493

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0.00244 11888 34372

Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00457 0.21662 0.00348 16965 49053

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 16 82992 0.066 320 0.60 192 0.1338 0.0020 13013 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0.00564 0 22570

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 1 5187 0.003 320 0.60 192 0.0068 0.0001 661 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0.00728 47540 118387

Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 5187 0.002 320 0.60 192 0.0031 0.0000 305

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 13 67431 0.074 320 0.60 192 0.2649 0.0039 25664 Total, All Scenarios 0.18674 1.39978 0.03690 97156 347844

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 4 20748 0.017 320 0.60 192 0.0593 0.0009 5743

Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 4 20748 0.006 320 0.60 192 0.0222 0.0003 2154 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00056 0.00058 0.00006 172 405

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 1.73 3 4487 0.001 0.00008 0.00000 13 Intrusion Collisions 0.00144 0.00048 0.00005 60 250

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00090 0.00041 0.00004 152 318

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0.00004 746 923

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Broken Rail 0.00439 0.00145 0.00014 2438 3017

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0.00067 0 2691

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0.00035 1350 3065

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 1.73 26 38885 0.014 0.00546 0.00028 1092

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 1.73 5 7478 0.002 0.00087 0.00004 175 Total, All Scenarios 0.02643 0.01686 0.00136 4919 10670

Private 0.12 0% 0.120 1.73 5 7478 0.001 0.00035 0.00002 70

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 3 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.21317 1.41664 0.03826 102074 358514

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 3000000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 26 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 5 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 5 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.168 0.490 0.007 47540

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.018 0.007 0.000 1350

Train Type 0.186 0.50 0.01 48890

Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Per 10 years

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Collision Scenario (From Coll Matrix)

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies by Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Passenger

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation - Collisions at Diamonds - Freight

Total Passenger + Freight

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Collision Frequencies for Passenger + Unequipped Freight Train 

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 79 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 105 mph

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Worksheet 3 - Sp,N,R: - Risk Calculations - Cab Signal/ATC 70% Preventability, Springfield Subcorridor, Summer

Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 50 mph

Freight Passenger

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability)

Data exported to the 

Results Summary 

worksheet

Mauve cells contain data 

imported from Worksheet 2 in this 

group of three worksheets 

covering this sub-corridor, season 

and operating state.

Casualties and damage in 

Table 3.1 are per accident, 

except for Work Zone 

Violations which are per 

million train-miles

All train-to-train collision 

frequencies are in units of 

trains in collisions per 

million train-miles operated 

in the sub-corridor by all 

train types.
2/4/2010 (12) Appendix G - IDOT risk model, NE Corridor ATC 85% Case v1.xls

Inputs

Train/System Parameter Value Value Units

Type Train Type

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Sight Distance 2500 ft Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year

Appl'n Time (secs) 13.8 Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95 Probability Passenger 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

Train Weight (lb) 37600000 violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05 Probability Equipped Freight 1.43 1.43 1.43 2.28 1.73 3.16

Brake Force (lb) 779683 PTC Risk Increment in Zone C (PTC Models ONLY) 2 Ratio Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 Potential danger length in Zone C (PTC Models ONLY) 2500 ft

Coefficient B 0 Operating Days 91.0 274.0 91.0 274.0 91.0 274.0

Safety Factor 1.25 Unit Cost Per Casualty Injury 100000 Dollars

Train Control PTC Timeout (secs) 3 Fatality 3000000 Dollars

PTC Latency (secs) 3 Timeout (secs) 0 0 0

ACS Response (secs) 8 Normal Operating Mode 95.00 95.00 95.00

Timeout Mode 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fallback Mode 5.00 5.00 5.00

Seats 320 320 320

Occupancy Factor 0.6 0.6 0.6

15

Segment Start (milepost) End (milepost) Type Variant Passenger Segment Start (MP) End (MP) Type Variant Passenger Segment Start End Type Variant Passenger

Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops

(Consq*) (Other) (Consq*) (Other) (Consq*) (Other)

1.0 62.60 64.80 CP Adjacent (M) 2.20 11616 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 14.0 88.35 90.55 Plain 2.20 11616 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 1 Bunge 32.0 124.86 126.50 CP Adjacent (M) 1.6 8659.2 25.0 40.0 40 25 40 40 40 0 Bloom Yard

2.0 64.80 66.55 Plain 1.75 9240 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 15.0 90.55 92.47 CP Adjacent (M) 1.92 10137.6 49.0 50.0 50 40 60 60 79 1 Donnley 33.0 126.50 126.50 Diamond 0.0 0 25.0 40.0 40 25 40 40 40 0

3.0 66.55 68.23 Plain 1.68 8870.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 16.0 92.47 94.97 Siding (M) Pontiac (Sig'd) 2.50 13200 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 Pontiac 34.0 126.50 128.76 CP Adjacent (M) 2.3 11932.8 30.0 50.0 50 25 60 60 79 0

4.0 68.23 70.17 CP Adjacent (M) 1.94 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 17.0 94.97 96.81 CP Adjacent (M) 1.84 9715.2 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 Ocoya 35.0 128.76 130.96 Plain 2.2 11616 60.0 79.0 90 50 79 79 79 0

5.0 70.17 72.80 Siding (M) Dw ight (sig'd) 2.63 13886.4 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 0 18.0 96.81 100.28 Plain 3.47 18321.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 36.0 130.96 133.72 Plain 2.8 14572.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 60 105 0

6.0 72.80 72.80 Diamond 0.00 0 40.0 40.0 40 40 40 40 40 0 19.0 100.28 102.25 CP Adjacent (M) 1.97 10401.6 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 0 37.0 133.72 136.90 Plain 3.2 16790.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0

7.0 72.80 74.94 CP Adjacent (M) 2.14 11299.2 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 0 20.0 102.25 102.25 Diamond 0.00 0 40.0 40.0 40 40 40 40 40 0 38.0 136.90 138.63 CP Adjacent (M) 1.7 9134.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0

8.0 74.94 77.27 Plain 2.33 12302.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 21.0 102.25 104.60 CP Adjacent (M) 2.35 12408 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 0 39.0 138.63 141.30 Siding (M) McLean (sig'd) 2.7 14097.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 1 McLean

9.0 77.27 80.13 Plain 2.86 15100.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 22.0 104.60 106.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.83 9662.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 40.0 141.30 143.35 CP Adjacent (M) 2.0 10824 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0

10.0 80.13 81.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.86 9820.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 23.0 106.43 108.83 Siding (M) Ballard (Sig'd) 2.40 12672 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 41.0 143.35 148.30 Plain 5.0 26136 60.0 79.0 110 50 60 79 79 2 FTS Fertilizer, Atlanta

11.0 81.99 84.65 Siding (M) Odell (Sig'd) 2.66 14044.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 24.0 108.83 111.36 CP Adjacent (M) 2.53 13358.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 42.0 148.30 150.96 Plain 2.7 14044.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 1 E Lincoln Grain

12.0 84.65 86.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.78 9398.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 25.0 111.36 113.30 Plain 1.94 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 43.0 150.96 153.56 CP Adjacent (U) 2.6 13728 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 1 Kruger

13.0 86.43 88.35 Plain 1.92 10137.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 26.0 113.30 116.36 Plain 3.06 16156.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 44.0 153.56 155.57 Siding (U) Elkhart (Unsig'd) 2.0 10612.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 60 60 79 0

27.0 116.36 118.83 Plain 2.47 13041.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 1 Tow anda 45.0 155.57 155.57 Diamond 0.0 0 40.0 40.0 40 40 40 40 40 0

28.0 118.83 121.40 CP Adjacent (M) 2.57 13569.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 46.0 155.57 157.26 CP Adjacent (U) 1.7 8923.2 50.0 70.0 70 50 60 60 79 1 Havana Ind. Lincoln

29.0 121.40 123.57 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 2.17 11457.6 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 79 79 1 Bloomington 47.0 157.26 160.05 Plain 2.8 14731.2 60.0 79.0 90 50 79 79 79 0

30.0 123.57 124.38 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.81 4276.8 25.0 40.0 40 25 40 40 40 1 Bloomington Bloomingtom 48.0 160.05 162.11 Plain 2.1 10876.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0

31.0 124.38 124.86 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.48 2534.4 25.0 40.0 40 25 40 40 40 1 Bloomington 49.0 162.11 164.04 Plain 1.9 10190.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0

50.0 164.04 166.16 Plain 2.1 11193.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0

51.0 166.16 168.34 CP Adjacent (U) 2.2 11510.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 1 Elkhart Grain

52.0 168.34 170.40 Siding (U) Elkhart (Unsig'd) 2.1 10876.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0

53.0 170.40 172.34 CP Adjacent (U) 1.9 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0

54.0 172.34 175.84 Plain 3.5 18480 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0

55.0 175.84 179.49 Plain 3.7 19272 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 79 0

56.0 179.49 180.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.5 7920 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 79 0

Check Total 25.8 Check Total 36.5 Check Total 56.1

Train Type Representative Type of Number Train Type Representative Type of Number Train Type Representative Type of Number Train Type Representative Type of 

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds Speed (mph) Grade-crossing

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 1 Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 7 7 Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50,000

Public_other 0 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.300

Private 0 0 Private Private Private 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 8 0 0 60 Public_gates_lights 16 60 Public_gates_lights 14 60 Public_gates_lights 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113,000

Public_other 0 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.500

Private 0 0 Private 1 Private Private 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 20 8 0 79 Public_gates_lights 16 16 79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 79 Public_gates_lights 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196,000

Public_other 0 0 Public_other 1 Public_other 5 1 Public_other 0.650

Private 1 0 Private 6 1 Private 5 1 Private 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 20 0 105 Public_gates_lights 16 105 Public_gates_lights 13 105 Public_gates_lights 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346,000

Public_other 0 0 Public_other 1 Public_other 4 Public_other 0.800

Private 0 1 Private 6 Private 4 Private 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0 0 Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 7 Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000

Public_other 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.120

Private 0 Private Private Private 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 8 1 40 Public_gates_lights 16 40 Public_gates_lights 40 Public_gates_lights 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000

Public_other 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.250

Private 0 Private 1 Private Private 0.100

50 Public_gates_lights 20 0 50 Public_gates_lights 16 50 Public_gates_lights 26 50 Public_gates_lights 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000

Public_other 0 Public_other 1 Public_other 5 Public_other 0.300

Private 1 Private 6 Private 5 Private 0.120

Check Totals 29 29 29 Check Totals 47 47 47 Check Totals 39 39 39

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.240 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.0160 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.0320 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.001 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.001 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000

Overspeed 0.044 0.000 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.000 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.008 0 0.125 0.013 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rolloutFrt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other)Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Segment Type Segment Type

Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Head-on Rear/Side Head-on R/S P into F R/S F into P Head-on Rear/Side

Siding - Monitored 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030 Siding - Monitored 50% 50% 50% 40% 10% 50% 50%

Siding - Unmonitored 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 Siding - Unmonitored 50% 50% 50% 40% 10% 50% 50%

CP-Adjacent, Monitored 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 CP-Adjacent, Monitored 90% 10% 80% 15% 5% 75% 25%

CP-Adjacent, Unmonitored 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.060 CP-Adjacent, Unmonitored 90% 10% 80% 15% 5% 75% 25%

Plain Track 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 Plain Track 80% 20% 70% 25% 5% 50% 50%

Accident Type Units

Passenger Freight Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Per million train-miles 0.0086 0.0144 Passenger-Passenger 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.60 0.80 0.62

Intrusion Collision (other)) Per million train-miles 0.0144 0.0086 Passenger - Equip Freight 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.32 0.20 0.30

Overspeed Per million train-miles 0.0110 0.0160 Passenger - Unequip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Broken Rail Per million train-miles 0.0167 0.0556 Equip Freight - Equip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.08

Work Zone Violation Per million train-miles Equip Freight - Unequip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Diamonds Per million diamond passes 0.1000 0.1000 Unequip _Freight - Unequip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Checking 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Accident Type Preventability

Passenger Freight Passenger Freight Both TBE Pass-Pass 0.85

Intrusion Collision (rollout) 0.43 0.43 0.00 0.00 Pass-TBE Freight 0.85

Intrusion Collision (other)) 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.85

Overspeed 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.90

Broken Rail 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00

Work Zone Violation 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.90 One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.85

Grade Crossings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0.85

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0.85

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.85

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ 40 mph 60 mph 79 mph 105 mph

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.0020 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.240 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.0160 3495000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.0010 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.0010 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.0050 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.0320 6989000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ 25 mph 40 mph 50 mph

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rolloutFrt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other)Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.0020 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.240 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.0160 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.0010 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.0010 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.0050 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.0320 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rolloutFrt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other)Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Model Inputs: Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC: 85% Preventability

Equipped Train Preventability Values

Number Crossings

Prev'ly Factors - PTC Timeout

Table IN-6a: Preventability for Other Accident Types

Preventability Factors - ATC Collision Type

Passenger to Freight Freight to Freight

Frequencies Collision Types Joliet Sub-Corridor

Table IN-5c: Reference Case Frequencies for Other Accident Types Table IN-5d: Reference Case Collision Distributions by Sub-Corridor and Train Type

Joliet Sub-Corridor Bloomington Sub-Corridor Springfield Sub-Corridor Passenger to Passenger

Average One-Way Trips/Day

Table IN-1c:Traffic and Related Data

Head-on and Rear/Side Train-Train Collision Distributions by Segment Type

Table IN-5b: Collision Distributions Between Head-on and Rear/Side by trains Involved and Segment type

Bloomington Sub-Corridor Springfield Sub-Corridor

Train-Train Collision Distributions by Train Types

Train-Train Collision Frequency by Segment Type, Sub Corridor and Season - (Collision Frequency in Collisions per Million Train Miles)

Table IN-5a: Reference Case Collision Accident Frequencies by Sub-Corridor and Season

All Other Accident Frequencies

Percent Train-Miles in

Passenger Train Occupancy

Table IN-1a: Braking Formula Inputs

Table IN-2a: Segment Definitions: Joliet Sub-Corridor: MP 62.7 (Mazonia) - MP 88.3 (Bunge)

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph) Industry Siding 

Parameter

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Representative Speed 50 mph

Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph) Industry Siding 

Table IN-2c: Segment Definitions: Springfield Sub-Corridor: MP 124.9 (Bloomington) - MP 181.0 (Ridgely)

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph) Industry Siding 

Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 60 mph

Crossing Collision Consequences

See Consequence Table

Number Crossings

Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Accident Frequency

Per Million Crossing Passes

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph

Number Crossings

Table IN-4: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Table IN-1b: Miscellaneous Inputs

Joliet Sub-Corridor

Table IN-2b: Segment Definitions: Bloomington Sub-Corridor: MP 88.3 (Bunge) - MP 124.9 (Bloomington)

Length

Bloomington Sub-Corridor

Table IN-3a: Crossing and Diamond Data, Joliet Sub-Corridor Table IN-3b: Crossing Data, Bloomington Sub-Corridor Table IN-3c: Crossing Data, Springfield Sub-Corridor Table IN-3d: Grade Crossings: Collision Frequency and Consequences

Springfield Sub-Corridor

Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 50 mph Consequence Adjustment Factors by Representative Speed

Tables IN-7: Base Consequences Look-up Table (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 60 mph Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 50 mph

Consequence Adjustment Factors by Representative Speed

Tables IN-8: Adjusted Consequences Look-up Table (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 60 mph Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph

Note: Since all trains are 

equipped in Cab Signal and 

ATC cases, there are no 

collisions invoilving 

unequipped trains.

Casualties and damage in 

Table IN-4 are per accident, 

except for Work Zone 

Violations w hich are per 

million train-miles

Casualties and damage in 

Table IN-7 are per accident, 

except for Work Zone 

Violations w hich are per 

million train-miles

Casualties and damage in 

Table IN-8 are per accident, 

except for Work Zone 

Violations w hich are per 

million train-miles

PTC Timeout and Latency 

values in Table IN-1a used 

only for PTC calculations.

Prev'ly 

Factors -

PTC 

Timeout 

only used 

w ith PTC 

cases.
1/27/2010 (12) Appendix G - IDOT risk model, NE Corridor ATC 85% Case v1.xls

Results Summary

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00474 0.35286 0.01352 15382 91238 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00531 0.36271 0.01383 15686 93461 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00770 0.52175 0.01988 22439 134242 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01775 1.23731 0.04723 53507 318942

Intrusion Collisions 0.00941 0.27340 0.00971 11717 68197 Intrusion Collisions 0.01002 0.27512 0.00977 11726 68549 Intrusion Collisions 0.01541 0.39492 0.01401 16843 98358 Intrusion Collisions 0.03484 0.94344 0.03349 40286 235104

Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00282 0.00008 99 633 Diamond Collisions 0.00024 0.00253 0.00008 89 569 Diamond Collisions 0.00052 0.00554 0.00016 194 1242 Diamond Collisions 0.00101 0.01090 0.00032 382 2444

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916 70493 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0.00733 35795 103495 Overspeed 0.02181 1.06692 0.01712 85607 243668

Broken Rail 0.00823 0.42200 0.00678 34773 97324 Broken Rail 0.00876 0.42983 0.00689 34801 98459 Broken Rail 0.01347 0.63836 0.01024 49996 144554 Broken Rail 0.03046 1.49019 0.02392 119569 340337

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0 45798 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0.01699 0 67959 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.39582 0.03958 0 158328

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.02319 151171 376715 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 0.02191 143142 356461 Grade Crossing Collisions 1.66225 4.96091 0.07367 480938 1198052

Total, All Scenarios 0.62565 3.38995 0.07468 273491 836520 Total, All Scenarios 0.58894 3.05212 0.07015 238389 754043 Total, All Scenarios 0.55353 3.66342 0.09052 268409 906311 Total, All Scenarios 1.76812 10.10549 0.23535 780289 2496875

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00080 0.00087 0.00009 252 599 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00168 0.00176 0.00018 500 1206 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00232 0.00253 0.00025 725 1738 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00480 0.00516 0.00052 1478 3543

Intrusion Collisions 0.00201 0.00066 0.00007 83 347 Intrusion Collisions 0.00342 0.00107 0.00011 134 562 Intrusion Collisions 0.00728 0.00242 0.00024 304 1271 Intrusion Collisions 0.01272 0.00414 0.00041 520 2179

Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00066 0.00007 250 514 Diamond Collisions 0.00127 0.00056 0.00006 213 437 Diamond Collisions 0.00284 0.00125 0.00013 475 976 Diamond Collisions 0.00560 0.00247 0.00025 938 1927

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810 2215 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0.00024 4105 5079 Overspeed 0.01290 0.00408 0.00041 7032 8666

Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00204 0.00020 3572 4387 Broken Rail 0.01108 0.00324 0.00032 5786 7081 Broken Rail 0.02362 0.00778 0.00078 13124 16237 Broken Rail 0.04123 0.01306 0.00131 22482 27705

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0 6729 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0.00370 0 14802 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.06402 0.00640 0 25609

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.00121 4717 10730 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0.00190 7427 16859 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.22171 0.07805 0.00400 15570 35370

Total, All Scenarios 0.06108 0.03219 0.00239 8700 19078 Total, All Scenarios 0.09647 0.04818 0.00366 13159 28959 Total, All Scenarios 0.14141 0.09063 0.00725 26160 56962 Total, All Scenarios 0.29896 0.17099 0.01329 48019 104999

0.68673 3.42213 0.07706 282191 855598 0.68541 3.10030 0.07381 251548 783003 0.69495 3.75405 0.09777 294569 963273 2.06708 10.27648 0.24864 828309 2601874

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00178 0.12230 0.00466 5286 31504 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00252 0.17296 0.00658 7429 44468 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00430 0.29526 0.01124 12714 75972

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00333 0.09137 0.00324 3894 22766 Intrusion Collisions 0.00512 0.13116 0.00465 5594 32666 Intrusion Collisions 0.00844 0.22253 0.00790 9488 55433

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00007 0.00076 0.00002 26 169 Diamond Collisions 0.00014 0.00155 0.00005 54 348 Diamond Collisions 0.00021 0.00231 0.00007 81 518

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275 23412 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0.00244 11888 34372 Overspeed 0.00529 0.25400 0.00407 20163 57784

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00291 0.14275 0.00229 11558 32700 Broken Rail 0.00447 0.21201 0.00340 16604 48009 Broken Rail 0.00738 0.35476 0.00569 28162 80709

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0 15156 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0.00564 0 22570 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.09391 0.00945 0 37726

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.00770 50207 125113 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0.00728 47540 118387 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.35375 1.00818 0.01498 97746 243500

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.19561 1.01487 0.02336 79246 250820 Total, All Scenarios 0.18378 1.21607 0.03003 89110 300821 Total, All Scenarios 0.37938 2.23095 0.05340 168356 551641

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00030 0.00030 0.00003 88 210 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00028 0.00029 0.00003 86 203 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00058 0.00060 0.00006 174 413

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00071 0.00022 0.00002 28 117 Intrusion Collisions 0.00132 0.00044 0.00004 55 231 Intrusion Collisions 0.00204 0.00066 0.00007 83 348

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00017 0.00002 63 130 Diamond Collisions 0.00080 0.00035 0.00004 133 274 Diamond Collisions 0.00118 0.00052 0.00005 197 404

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377 461 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0.00004 746 923 Overspeed 0.00207 0.00065 0.00007 1123 1385

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00231 0.00067 0.00007 1205 1475 Broken Rail 0.00429 0.00142 0.00014 2386 2952 Broken Rail 0.00660 0.00209 0.00021 3591 4427

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0 1402 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0.00067 0 2691 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01023 0.00102 0 4093

Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.00025 983 2235 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0.00035 1350 3065 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.03355 0.01170 0.00060 2333 5300

Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.02016 0.01002 0.00076 2744 6031 Total, All Scenarios 0.02585 0.01643 0.00131 4757 10340 Total, All Scenarios 0.04601 0.02646 0.00207 7502 16370

0.21577 1.02490 0.02412 81991 256851 0.20963 1.23251 0.03135 93867 311161 0.42539 2.25740 0.05547 175857 568011

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial

($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals ($) Totals

($) ($) ($) ($)

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00474 0.35286 0.01352 15382 91238 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00709 0.48501 0.01850 20971 124965 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01022 0.69471 0.02646 29868 178711 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.02205 1.53257 0.05848 66221 394914

Intrusion Collisions 0.00941 0.27340 0.00971 11717 68197 Intrusion Collisions 0.01335 0.36650 0.01302 15620 91316 Intrusion Collisions 0.02052 0.52608 0.01866 22437 131024 Intrusion Collisions 0.04329 1.16598 0.04139 49775 290536

Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00282 0.00008 99 633 Diamond Collisions 0.00031 0.00329 0.00010 115 738 Diamond Collisions 0.00066 0.00709 0.00021 248 1590 Diamond Collisions 0.00123 0.01320 0.00039 463 2962

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00836 0.40995 0.00657 33191 93905 Overspeed 0.01285 0.60883 0.00977 47683 137868 Overspeed 0.02709 1.32091 0.02120 105770 301452

Broken Rail 0.00823 0.42200 0.00678 34773 97324 Broken Rail 0.01167 0.57258 0.00918 46359 131159 Broken Rail 0.01794 0.85037 0.01364 66600 192563 Broken Rail 0.03784 1.84495 0.02961 147732 421046

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.15197 0.01525 0 60953 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.22632 0.02263 0 90529 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.48973 0.04903 0 196054

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.74378 2.07769 0.03089 201378 501828 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.67512 1.96610 0.02919 190682 474847 Grade Crossing Collisions 2.01600 5.96909 0.08865 578685 1441552

Total, All Scenarios 0.62565 3.38995 0.07468 273491 836520 Total, All Scenarios 0.78455 4.06700 0.09351 317635 1004864 Total, All Scenarios 0.73731 4.87949 0.12055 357519 1207132 Total, All Scenarios 2.14750 12.33644 0.28874 948645 3048516

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00080 0.00087 0.00009 252 599 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00198 0.00207 0.00021 588 1416 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00260 0.00282 0.00028 811 1941 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00538 0.00576 0.00058 1652 3956

Intrusion Collisions 0.00201 0.00066 0.00007 83 347 Intrusion Collisions 0.00413 0.00129 0.00013 162 679 Intrusion Collisions 0.00861 0.00286 0.00029 359 1502 Intrusion Collisions 0.01475 0.00480 0.00048 603 2527

Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00066 0.00007 250 514 Diamond Collisions 0.00165 0.00073 0.00007 276 567 Diamond Collisions 0.00364 0.00160 0.00016 608 1250 Diamond Collisions 0.00678 0.00299 0.00030 1134 2331

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00419 0.00122 0.00012 2187 2676 Overspeed 0.00873 0.00288 0.00029 4851 6002 Overspeed 0.01496 0.00474 0.00047 8155 10051

Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00204 0.00020 3572 4387 Broken Rail 0.01339 0.00391 0.00039 6991 8556 Broken Rail 0.02791 0.00920 0.00092 15510 19190 Broken Rail 0.04783 0.01515 0.00151 26073 32132

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02033 0.00203 0 8130 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04373 0.00437 0 17494 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.07426 0.00743 0 29702

Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09129 0.02865 0.00147 5700 12965 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11578 0.04397 0.00225 8777 19924 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.25526 0.08975 0.00460 17903 40670

Total, All Scenarios 0.06108 0.03219 0.00239 8700 19078 Total, All Scenarios 0.11663 0.05820 0.00442 15904 34990 Total, All Scenarios 0.16726 0.10706 0.00856 30917 67302 Total, All Scenarios 0.34497 0.19745 0.01537 55521 121369

0.68673 3.42213 0.07706 282191 855598 0.90118 4.12519 0.09793 333539 1039854 0.90457 4.98656 0.12911 388436 1274434 2.49248 12.53388 0.30411 1004166 3169886

Results Summary: Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability.

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

Table R3a: All Year, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, Springfield Table R3d: All Year, Whole Corridor

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight

Table R2a: Summer, Joliet (Included in Full Year Table) Table R2b: Summer, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, Springfield Table R2d: Summer, Whole Corridor

Table R1c: Rest of Year, Springfield

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R1d: Rest of Year, Whole Corridor

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R1a: Full Year, Joliet

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R1b: Rest of Year, Bloomington

Total Passenger + Freight

There are no seasonal traffic 

variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk 

calculation is needed for the full 

year, and there is no separate 

summer calculation
2/4/2010 (12) Appendix G - IDOT risk model, NE Corridor ATC 85% Case v1.xls

Train/System Parameter Value Value Units

Type Train Type

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Sight Distance 2500 ft Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year

Appl'n Time (secs) 13.8 Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95 Probability Passenger 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00Train Weight (lb) 37600000 violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05 Probability Equipped Freight 1.43 1.43 1.43 2.28 1.73 3.16

Brake Force (lb) 779683 PTC Risk Increment in Zone C (PTC Models ONLY) 2 Ratio Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 Potential danger length in Zone C (PTC Models ONLY) 2500 ft

Coefficient B 0 Operating Days 91.0 274.0 91.0 274.0 91.0 274.0

Safety Factor 1.25 Unit Cost Per Casualty Injury 100000 Dollars

Train Control PTC Timeout (secs) 3 Fatality 3000000 Dollars

PTC Latency (secs) 3 Timeout (secs) 0 0 0

ACS Response (secs) 8 Normal Operating Mode 95.00 95.00 95.00

Timeout Mode 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fallback Mode 5.00 5.00 5.00

Seats 320 320 320

Occupancy Factor 0.6 0.6 0.6

15

Segment Start (milepost) End (milepost) Type Variant Passenger Segment Start (MP) End (MP) Type Variant 

Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass 

(Consq*) (Other) (Consq*) (Other) 

1.0 62.60 64.80 CP Adjacent (M) 2.20 11616 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 14.0 88.35 90.55 Plain 2.20 11616 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 

2.0 64.80 66.55 Plain 1.75 9240 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 15.0 90.55 92.47 CP Adjacent (M) 1.92 10137.6 49.0 50.0 50 40 60 60 79 

3.0 66.55 68.23 Plain 1.68 8870.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 16.0 92.47 94.97 Siding (M) Pontiac (Sig'd) 2.50 13200 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 

4.0 68.23 70.17 CP Adjacent (M) 1.94 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 17.0 94.97 96.81 CP Adjacent (M) 1.84 9715.2 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 

5.0 70.17 72.80 Siding (M) Dw ight (sig'd) 2.63 13886.4 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 0 18.0 96.81 100.28 Plain 3.47 18321.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 

6.0 72.80 72.80 Diamond 0.00 0 40.0 40.0 40 40 40 40 40 0 19.0 100.28 102.25 CP Adjacent (M) 1.97 10401.6 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 

7.0 72.80 74.94 CP Adjacent (M) 2.14 11299.2 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 0 20.0 102.25 102.25 Diamond 0.00 0 40.0 40.0 40 40 40 40 40 

8.0 74.94 77.27 Plain 2.33 12302.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 21.0 102.25 104.60 CP Adjacent (M) 2.35 12408 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 

9.0 77.27 80.13 Plain 2.86 15100.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 22.0 104.60 106.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.83 9662.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 

10.0 80.13 81.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.86 9820.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 23.0 106.43 108.83 Siding (M) Ballard (Sig'd) 2.40 12672 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 

11.0 81.99 84.65 Siding (M) Odell (Sig'd) 2.66 14044.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 24.0 108.83 111.36 CP Adjacent (M) 2.53 13358.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 

12.0 84.65 86.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.78 9398.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 25.0 111.36 113.30 Plain 1.94 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 

13.0 86.43 88.35 Plain 1.92 10137.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 26.0 113.30 116.36 Plain 3.06 16156.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 

27.0 116.36 118.83 Plain 2.47 13041.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 

28.0 118.83 121.40 CP Adjacent (M) 2.57 13569.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 

29.0 121.40 123.57 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 2.17 11457.6 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 79 79 

30.0 123.57 124.38 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.81 4276.8 25.0 40.0 40 25 40 40 40 

31.0 124.38 124.86 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.48 2534.4 25.0 40.0 40 25 40 40 40 

Check Total 25.8 Check Total 36.5 

Train Type Representative Type of Number Train Type Representative Type of Number Train Type Representative Type of Number Train Type Representative Type of 

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds Speed (mph) Grade-crossing

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 1 Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 7 7 Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50,000

Public_other 0 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.300

Private 0 0 Private Private Private 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 8 0 0 60 Public_gates_lights 16 60 Public_gates_lights 14 60 Public_gates_lights 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113,000

Public_other 0 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.500

Private 0 0 Private 1 Private Private 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 20 8 0 79 Public_gates_lights 16 16 79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 79 Public_gates_lights 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196,000

Public_other 0 0 Public_other 1 Public_other 5 1 Public_other 0.650

Private 1 0 Private 6 1 Private 5 1 Private 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 20 0 105 Public_gates_lights 16 105 Public_gates_lights 13 105 Public_gates_lights 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346,000

Public_other 0 0 Public_other 1 Public_other 4 Public_other 0.800

Private 0 1 Private 6 Private 4 Private 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0 0 Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 7 Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.150 

Public_other 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.120

Private 0 Private Private Private 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 8 1 40 Public_gates_lights 16 40 Public_gates_lights 40 Public_gates_lights 0.300 

Public_other 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.250

Private 0 Private 1 Private Private 0.100

50 Public_gates_lights 20 0 50 Public_gates_lights 16 50 Public_gates_lights 26 50 Public_gates_lights 0.360 

Public_other 0 Public_other 1 Public_other 5 Public_other 0.300

Private 1 Private 6 Private 5 Private 0.120

Check Totals 29 29 29 Check Totals 47 47 47 Check Totals 39 39 39

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.240 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.0160 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.0320 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.001 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.001 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000

Overspeed 0.044 0.000 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.000 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.008 0 0.125 0.013 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rolloutFrt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other)Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Segment Type Segment Type

Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Head-on Rear/Side Head-on R/S P into F R/S F into P Head-on Rear/Side

Siding - Monitored 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030 Siding - Monitored 50% 50% 50% 40% 10% 50% 50%

Siding - Unmonitored 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 Siding - Unmonitored 50% 50% 50% 40% 10% 50% 50%

CP-Adjacent, Monitored 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 CP-Adjacent, Monitored 90% 10% 80% 15% 5% 75% 25%CP-Adjacent, Unmonitored 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.060 CP-Adjacent, Unmonitored 90% 10% 80% 15% 5% 75% 25%

Plain Track 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 Plain Track 80% 20% 70% 25% 5% 50% 50%

Accident Type Units

Passenger Freight Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Per million train-miles 0.0086 0.0144 Passenger-Passenger 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.60 0.80 0.62Intrusion Collision (other)) Per million train-miles 0.0144 0.0086 Passenger - Equip Freight 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.32 0.20 0.30

Overspeed Per million train-miles 0.0110 0.0160 Passenger - Unequip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Broken Rail Per million train-miles 0.0167 0.0556 Equip Freight - Equip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.08Work Zone Violation Per million train-miles Equip Freight - Unequip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Diamonds Per million diamond passes 0.1000 0.1000 Unequip _Freight - Unequip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Checking 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Accident Type Preventability

Passenger Freight Passenger Freight Both TBE Pass-Pass 0.85

Intrusion Collision (rollout) 0.43 0.43 0.00 0.00 Pass-TBE Freight 0.85Intrusion Collision (other)) 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.85Overspeed 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.90Broken Rail 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00Work Zone Violation 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.90 One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.85

Grade Crossings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0.85

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0.85TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.85

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ 40 mph 60 mph 79 mph 105 mph

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.0020 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.240 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.0160 3495000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.0010 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.0010 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.0050 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.0320 6989000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Consequence Adjustment Factors by Representative Speed

Tables IN-7: Base Consequences Look-up Table (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 60 mph Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Table IN-1b: Miscellaneous Inputs

Joliet Sub-Corridor

Table IN-2b: Segment Definitions: Bloomington Sub-Corridor: MP 88.3 (Bunge) - MP 124.9 (Bloomington)

Length

Bloomington Sub-Corridor

Table IN-3a: Crossing and Diamond Data, Joliet Sub-Corridor Table IN-3b: Crossing Data, Bloomington Sub-Corridor Table IN-3c: Crossing Data, Springfield Sub-Corridor Table IN-3d: Grade Crossings: Collision Frequency and Consequence

Springfield Sub-Corridor

See Consequence Table

Number Crossings

Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) 

Accident Frequency

Per Million Crossing Passes

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph

Number Crossings

Table IN-4: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 60 mph

Crossing Collis

Representative Speed 50 mphRepresentative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph) 

Percent Train-Miles in

Passenger Train Occupancy

Table IN-1a: Braking Formula Inputs

Table IN-2a: Segment Definitions: Joliet Sub-Corridor: MP 62.7 (Mazonia) - MP 88.3 (Bunge)

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph) Industry Siding 

Parameter

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Average One-Way Trips/Day

Table IN-1c:Traffic and Related Data

Head-on and Rear/Side Train-Train Collision Distributions by Segment Type

Table IN-5b: Collision Distributions Between Head-on and Rear/Side by trains Involved and Segment type

Bloomington Sub-Corridor Springfield Sub-Corridor

Train-Train Collision Distributions by Train Types

Train-Train Collision Frequency by Segment Type, Sub Corridor and Season - (Collision Frequency in Collisions per Million Train Miles)

Table IN-5a: Reference Case Collision Accident Frequencies by Sub-Corridor and Season

All Other Accident Frequencies

Frequencies Joliet Sub-Corridor

Table IN-5c: Reference Case Frequencies for Other Accident Types Table IN-5d: Reference Case Collision Distributions by Sub-Corridor and Train Type

Joliet Sub-Corridor Bloomington Sub-Corridor Springfield Sub-Corridor Passenger to Passenger

Model Inputs: Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC: 85% Preventability

Equipped Train Preventability Values

Number Crossings

Prev'ly Factors - PTC Timeout

Table IN-6a: Preventability for Other Accident Types

Preventability Factors - ATC Collision Type

Passenger to Freight Freight to Freight

Collision Types Note: Since all trains are equipped in Cab Signal and 

ATC cases, there are no collisions invoilving unequipped trains.

Casualties and damage in Table IN-4 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations w hich are per million train-miles

PTC Timeout and Latency values in Table IN-1a used only for PTC calculations.

Prev'ly Factors -PTC Timeout only used w ith PTC cases.

Inputs
2/4/2010 (12) Appendix G - IDOT risk model, NE Corridor ATC 85% Case v1.xls

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ 25 mph 40 mph 50 mph

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rolloutFrt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other)Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.0020 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.240 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.0160 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.0010 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.0010 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.0050 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.0320 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rolloutFrt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other)Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 50 mph

Tables IN-8: Adjusted Consequences Look-up Table (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 60 mph Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mphRepresentative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 50 mph Consequence Adjustment Factors by Representative Speed

Casualties and damage in Table IN-7 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations w hich are per million train-milesCasualties and damage in Table IN-8 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations w hich are per million train-miles

Inputs
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 1671 1671 0 0.668 58 0 1275 0 2946 0 2946

Appl'n Time (secs) 13.8 40 3686 1619 2068 0.668 14 77 308 1692 1927 3760 5686Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 5452 3384 2068 0.668 36 77 791 1692 4176 3760 7935Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 1452 1452 0 1.293 48 0 1065 0 2517 0 2517

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 3177 3177 0 1.293 71 0 1565 0 4742 0 4742

Coefficient B 0 79 5433 3035 2398 1.293 25 68 541 1499 3576 3896 7472Safety Factor 1.25 105 9493 7096 2398 1.293 54 68 1190 1499 8286 3896 12182

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 3 Frt Red'd Consq 35 1125 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response (sec 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start End Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freig

Number (milepost) (milepost) Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops 

(Consq*) (Other)

1.0 62.6 64.8 CP Adjacent (M) 2.2 11616 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3330 3681 4144 0 0 0 566 0 0 462 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

2.0 64.8 66.6 Plain 1.8 9240 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 954 1168 1768 0 0 0 2942 0 0 462 0000000

3.0 66.6 68.2 Plain 1.7 8870.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 585 799 1399 0 0 0 3311 0 0 462 0000000

4.0 68.2 70.2 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 10243.2 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1958 2172 2772 0 0 0 1939 0 0 462 00000005.0 70.2 72.8 Siding (M) Dwight (sig'd) 2.6 13886.4 60 79 110 40 60 60 79 0 1927 4742 3576 0 0 3896 11960 9145 6415 0000000000000

6.0 72.8 72.8 Diamond 0.0 0 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 0 

7.0 72.8 74.9 CP Adjacent (M) 2.1 11299.2 60 79 110 40 60 60 79 0 1927 4742 3576 0 0 3896 9373 6558 3828 0000000000000

8.0 74.9 77.3 Plain 2.3 12302.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 4231 4831 121 0000000000000

9.0 77.3 80.1 Plain 2.9 15100.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 7029 7629 2919 0000000000000

10.0 80.1 82.0 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 9820.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1535 1749 2349 0 0 0 2361 0 0 462 0000000

11.0 82.0 84.7 Siding (M) Odell (Sig'd) 2.7 14044.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5973 6573 1863 0000000000000

12.0 84.7 86.4 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9398.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1113 1327 1927 0 0 0 2783 0 0 462 0000000

13.0 86.4 88.4 Plain 1.9 10137.6 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1852 2066 2666 0 0 0 2044 0 0 462 0000000

Check Total 25.8Train Type Representative 

Speed

(mph)

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 2.6 13886.450 2.7 14044.8

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 2.6 13886.4 2.6 13886.4 0.0 079 2.7 14044.8 2.7 14044.8 2.6 13886.4

105 0.0 0 2.7 14044.8

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 0.0 0

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 0.0 0

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 2.1 11299.250 7.8 41078.4

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 2.1 11299.2 2.1 11299.2 0.0 079 7.8 41078.4 7.8 41078.4 2.1 11299.2

105 0.0 0 7.8 41078.4

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 0.0 0

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 0.0 0

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 0

50 10.5 55651.2

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 10.5 55651.2 10.5 55651.2 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 10.5 55651.2

Check Total 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 27931.2Number Siding (M) Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 6102 8317 11861 3896 3896 7792 17933 15718 8278

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.218 0.298 0.425 0.139 0.139 0.279 0.642 0.563 0.296

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.208 0.283 0.403 0.133 0.133 0.265 0.710 0.635 0.382 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 1

Number Siding (M) Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 0 00000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (M) Segments (ft) 52377.6Number CP Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 18629 19044 36718 15448 15584 11832 18301 17749 3828

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.356 0.364 0.701 0.295 0.298 0.226 0.349 0.339 0.073HS Pass 0 1473 1027

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.338 0.345 0.666 0.280 0.283 0.274 0.432 0.422 0.111 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (U) Segments (ft) 1Number CP Adjacent Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 0 00000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Plain Track Segments (ft) 55651.2Number CP Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Worksheet 1-JN: IDOT Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability, Joliet Sub-corrid

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance (ft) Total Zone Lengths (ft0

Sight Distance (ft)

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Lengths in Feet)

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Zone C within Sight Distance

O

Zon

Overlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 TotalsZone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Full Prevention

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Posted Speed (mph)

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (including free running in TO) (ft)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prevention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop Overlap of Stopping Distance Overlap of Zone A1 Into 

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Sub-Corridor 1: MP 62.7 (Mazonia) - MP 88.3 (Bunge)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Braking Duration (secs)

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Industry Siding 

Freight

Plain Track

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Representative Speed (mph)

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
160

161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN 

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 18629 19044 36718 000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.335 0.342 0.660 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 1409 1091

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.318 0.325 0.627 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.100 0.100 0.044 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 25185.6Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 3238 6354 6070 4135 0 4795 17813 18832 14320

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.129 0.252 0.241 0.164 0.000 0.190 0.707 0.748 0.569HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.122 0.240 0.229 0.156 0.000 0.181 0.772 0.810 0.640

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Lengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 8 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 20 8 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.650Private 1 0 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 20 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.800Private 0 1 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 8 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M

Private 0 0.100 

50 Public_gates_lights 20 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0038 0.0051 0.0100 

Public_other 0 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0016 0.0021 0.0011 Private 1 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0005 0.0007 0.0005 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0017 0.0023 0.0012 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0007 0.0009 0.0015 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0005 0.0007 0.0005 

Segment Start End Type Length

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass-Cons HS Pass Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

1.0 62.60 64.80 CP Adjacent (M) 2.20 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 

2.0 64.80 66.55 Plain 1.75 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0.003.0 66.55 68.23 Plain 1.68 50 79 79 105 40 2.63 Pass Loco Hits Loco 

4.0 68.23 70.17 CP Adjacent (M) 1.94 50 79 79 105 50 2.66 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 

5.0 70.17 72.80 Siding (M) 2.63 40 60 60 79 Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 

6.0 72.80 72.80 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 60 2.63 2.63 0.00 Pass Car Hit by Loco 

7.0 72.80 74.94 CP Adjacent (M) 2.14 40 60 60 79 79 2.66 2.66 2.63

8.0 74.94 77.27 Plain 2.33 50 79 79 105 105 0.00 0.00 2.66 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0010 0.0007

9.0 77.27 80.13 Plain 2.86 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0.00 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001

10.0 80.13 81.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.86 50 79 79 105 40 0.00 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0005 0.0003

11.0 81.99 84.65 Siding (M) 2.66 50 79 79 105 50 0.00

12.0 84.65 86.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.78 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

13.0 86.43 88.35 Plain 1.92 50 79 79 105 60 0.00 0.00 0.00

79 0.00 0.00 0.00

105 0.00 0.00 0.00

Freight 25 0.00

40 2.1450 7.78

Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

Length Check -64.8 25.8 60 2.14 2.14 0.00

79 7.78 7.78 2.14

105 0.00 0.00 7.78

Freight 25 0.00

40 0.0050 0.00

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 0.00 0.00 0.00

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 0.00 0.00 0.00

Equipped Freight 1.43 1.43 105 0.00 0.00 0.00

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0.00

40 0.00

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 10.54

Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 0.00 0.00 0.0079 10.54 10.54 0.00

Timeout (secs) 0 105 0.00 0.00 10.54

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 0.00

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 4.77

Fallback Mode 5 50 20.98

Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 4.77 4.77 0.0079 20.98 20.98 4.77

Seats 320 105 0.00 0.00 20.98

Occupancy Factor 0.6

Checking Total 25.75 25.75 25.75 25.75

Representative Speed 50 mph

Freight 

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequenciess 

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths (miles)

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Worksheet 3 - J,N,R: - Risk Calculations - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability, Joliet Subcorridor, Rest of Year

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Co

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mphRepresentative Speed 40 mph

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones) Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - 

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

CP Adjacent (mon)

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles
119

120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227228229230231232233234235236237238239

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions 

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill. t-m) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.008492 0.000219 

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.001698 0.000044 

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 20805 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000263 

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.008492 0.000000 

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001698 0.000000 

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 20805 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000000 

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00663 Incl 0.00663 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00081 320 0.6 192 0.038 0.0013 1609 0 0.000000 0.000000 

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00136 Incl 0.00136 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00017 320 0.6 192 0.003 0.0001 165 0 0.000000 0.000000 

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00051 Incl 0.00051 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00006 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0001 62 0 0.008492 0.000000 

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00150 Incl 0.00150 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00018 320 0.6 192 0.017 0.0007 730 0 0.001698 0.000000 

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.00049 320 0.6 192 0.005 0.0002 216

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.00126 320 0.6 192 0.026 0.0009 1118

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.00109 320 0.6 192 0.044 0.0007 2838

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.00152 320 0.6 192 0.061 0.0010 3964

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.016 0.0016 0

0.00559 0.21156 0.00668 10702 0.000000 

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00471 Incl 0.00471 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00255 320 0.6 192 0.208 0.0078 8904 0 0.000000 0.000000 

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00069 Incl 0.00069 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00037 320 0.6 192 0.012 0.0006 655 0 0.000000 0.000000 

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00031 Incl 0.00031 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00017 320 0.6 192 0.006 0.0003 296 0 0.008492 0.000000 

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00078 Incl 0.00078 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00042 320 0.6 192 0.068 0.0026 2961 0 0.001698 0.000000 

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.00214 320 0.6 192 0.039 0.0014 1682

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.00553 320 0.6 192 0.203 0.0072 8701

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.00480 320 0.6 192 0.258 0.0041 22058

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.00671 320 0.6 192 0.361 0.0058 30808

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.095 0.0095 0

Total 0.02269 1.25026 0.03934 76065 0.000000 

Overall Totals 0.02828 1.46183 0.04602 86767 0.000263 

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00474 0.35286 0.01352 15382

Intrusion Collisions 0.00941 0.27340 0.00971 11717

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896

Broken Rail 0.00823 0.42200 0.00678 34773

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions 

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill t-m) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.028479 0.000000 

Frt Loco hits Car 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.029273 0.000000 

Frt car hit by Loco 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.000000 

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0010 Incl 0.00104 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00013 0.00014 0.000014 $35 1 0.000000 0.000000 

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0001 Incl 0.00015 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00002 0.00002 0.000002 $4 1 0.028479 0.000734 Frt car hit by Loco 0.0005 Incl 0.00051 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00006 0.00000 0.000000 $7 1 0.029273 0.000754 

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.43 4959 4.77 23652 0.00019 0.00004 0.000004 $5Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.43 4959 4.77 23652 0.00018 0.00004 0.000004 $5Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 4.77 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 4.77 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 4959 4.77 23652 0.00038 0.00005 0.000005 $142Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 4.77 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.43 4959 4.77 23652 0.00121 0.00017 0.000017 $454Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 4.77 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 4959 4.77 23652 0.00156 0.000156 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 4.77 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00217 0.0020 0.00020 $652 0.001488 

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0007 Incl 0.00070 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00038 0.00064 0.000064 $160 0 0.000000 0.000000 

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0001 Incl 0.00009 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00005 0.00007 0.000007 $17 0 0.028479 0.000000 Frt car hit by Loco 0.0003 Incl 0.00031 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00017 0.00000 0.000000 $30 0 0.029273 0.000000 

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.43 4959 20.98 104030 0.00085 0.00030 0.000030 $38Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.43 4959 20.98 104030 0.00079 0.00028 0.000028 $35Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 20.98 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 20.98 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 4959 20.98 104030 0.00166 0.00058 0.000058 $975Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 20.98 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.43 4959 20.98 104030 0.00532 0.00186 0.000186 $3,118Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 20.98 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 4959 20.98 104030 0.00863 0.000863 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 20.98 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00922 0.0124 0.00124 $4,372 0.000000 

Overall Totals 0.01139 0.0144 0.0014 $5,024 0.001488 

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00080 0.00087 0.00009 252

Intrusion Collisions 0.00201 0.00066 0.00007 83Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00066 0.00007 250Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00204 0.00020 3572Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0Grade Crossing Collisions

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation 

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)
240

241242243244245246247248249250251252253254255256257258259260261262263264265266267268269270271272273274275276277278279280281

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities 

Speed Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew Injuries Crew Fatalities per 10 Years 

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) 

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00474 0.35286 0.01352 Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00941 0.27340 0.00971 

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000263 0.00282 0.00008 

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00823 0.42200 0.00678 

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 8 166440 0.133 320 0.60 192 0.2684 0.0040 26098 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 20 416100 0.458 320 0.60 192 1.6346 0.0243 158368 Total, All Scenarios 0.62565 3.38995 0.07468 

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 20805 0.006 320 0.60 192 0.0223 0.0003 2160 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00080 0.00087 0.00009 

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00201 0.00066 0.00007 

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00066 0.00007 

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 1.43 8 39668.2 0.012 0.00298 0.00015 595 Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00204 0.00020 

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 Private 0.10 0% 0.100 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 1.43 20 99170.5 0.036 0.01392 0.00071 2785

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Total, All Scenarios 0.06108 0.03219 0.00239 Private 0.12 0% 0.120 1.43 1 4958.525 0.001 0.00023 0.00001 46

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.68673 3.42213 0.07706 

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 8 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 3000000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 20 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.597 1.925 0.029 186625

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.048 0.017 0.001 3426Train Type 0.645 1.94 0.03 190051

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total Passenger + Freight

Total - Passenger
1

23456789

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 1671 1671 0 0.668 58 0 1275 0 2946 0 2946

Appl'n Time (sec) 13.8 40 3686 1619 2068 0.668 14 77 308 1692 1927 3760 5686Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 5452 3384 2068 0.668 36 77 791 1692 4176 3760 7935Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 1452 1452 0 1.293 48 0 1065 0 2517 0 2517

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 3177 3177 0 1.293 71 0 1565 0 4742 0 4742

Coefficient B 0 79 5433 3035 2398 1.293 25 68 541 1499 3576 3896 7472Safety Factor 1.25 105 9493 7096 2398 1.293 54 68 1190 1499 8286 3896 12182

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 3 Frt Red'd Consq 35 1125 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response (sec 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start End Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freig

Number (milepost (milepost) Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops 

(Consq*) (Other)

14.0 88.4 90.6 Plain 2.2 11616 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Bunge 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3330 3681 4144 0 0 0 566 0 0 462 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

15.0 90.6 92.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 10137.6 49.0 50.0 50.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 1.0 Donnley 1927 4742 3576 0 0 3896 8211 5396 2666 000000000000016.0 92.5 95.0 Siding (M) Pontiac (Sig'd) 2.5 13200 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 Pontiac 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5128 5728 1018 000000000000017.0 95.0 96.8 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9715.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 Ocoya 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1430 1644 2244 0 0 0 2467 0 0 462 0000000

18.0 96.8 100.3 Plain 3.5 18321.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 10250 10850 6140 0000000000000

19.0 100.3 102.3 CP Adjacent (M) 2.0 10401.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 0.0 1927 4742 3576 3760 0 3896 4715 5660 2930 0000000000000

20.0 102.3 102.3 Diamond 0.0 0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 0.0 

21.0 102.3 104.6 CP Adjacent (M) 2.3 12408 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 0.0 1927 4742 3576 0 0 3896 10481 7666 4936 0000000000000

22.0 104.6 106.4 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9662.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1377 1591 2191 0 0 0 2519 0 0 462 0000000

23.0 106.4 108.8 Siding (M) Ballard (Sig'd) 2.4 12672 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 4600 5200 490 000000000000024.0 108.8 111.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.5 13358.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5287 5887 1177 0000000000000

25.0 111.4 113.3 Plain 1.9 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1958 2172 2772 0 0 0 1939 0 0 462 0000000

26.0 113.3 116.4 Plain 3.1 16156.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 8085 8685 3975 0000000000000

27.0 116.4 118.8 Plain 2.5 13041.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Towanda 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3896 5106 5570 860 0000000000000

28.0 118.8 121.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.6 13569.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3896 5634 6098 1388 0000000000000

29.0 121.4 123.6 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 2.2 11457.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 79.0 79.0 1.0 Bloomington 1927 4742 3576 3760 0 3896 5771 6716 3986 0000000000000

30.0 123.6 124.4 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.8 4276.8 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 1.0 Bloomington Bloomingtom 2946 2517 2517 0 0 0 1331 1760 1760 000000000000031.0 124.4 124.9 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.5 2534.4 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 1.0 Bloomington 2534 2517 2517 0 0 0 017 17 4110 01100 04110 04110 0 0 

Check Total 36.5Train Type Representative 

Speed

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 1.29 6811

40 2.17 1145850 4.90 25872

Passenger 40 1.29 6811 1.29 6811 1.29 6811

60 2.17 11458 0.00 0 0.00 079 4.90 25872 7.07 37330 2.17 11458

105 0.00 0 4.90 25872

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 0.00 0

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 079 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 0.00 0

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 6.24 3294750 8.77 46306

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 6.24 32947 6.24 32947 0.00 079 8.77 46306 8.77 46306 6.24 32947

105 0.00 0 8.77 46306

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 0.00 0

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 079 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 0.00 0

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 13.14 69379

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 079 13.14 69379 13.14 69379 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 13.14 69379

Check Total 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 44140.8Number Siding (M) Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 82 0 2418 15758 16927 25181 11552 7792 11688 16831 19422 7272

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.357 0.383 0.570 0.262 0.177 0.265 0.381 0.440 0.165

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.342 0.364 0.542 0.249 0.168 0.252 0.459 0.518 0.257 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 1

Number Siding (M) Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 0 00000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (M) Segments (ft) 79252.8Number CP Adjacent Segments 7 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft0 Freight 0 0 2500 22482 28527 43869 19208 15584 22287 37563 35142 13097

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.284 0.360 0.554 0.242 0.197 0.281 0.474 0.443 0.165HS Pass 0 710 1790

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.269 0.342 0.526 0.230 0.187 0.296 0.550 0.521 0.229 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (U) Segments (ft) 1Number CP Adjacent Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 0 00000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Plain Track Segments (ft) 69379.2Number CP Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Plain Track

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph) Industry Siding 

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Freight

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Bloomington Sub-Corridor: MP 88.4 (Bunge) - MP 124.9 (Bloomington)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Braking Duration (secs)

Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (including free running in TO) (ft)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prevention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop 

Full Prevention

Overlap of Stopping Distance Overlap of Zone A1 Into 

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 TotalsZone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone C within Sight Distance

O

Zon

Overlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Lengths in Feet

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Worksheet 1-B,N: IDOT Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Base Case II; Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability, Bloomington Sub-c

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance (ft) Total Zone Lengths (ft)

Sight Distance (ft)

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
160

161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN 

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 22482 28527 43869 000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.324 0.411 0.632 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 501 1999

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.308 0.391 0.601 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.100 0.100 0.080 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 22809.6Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 3238 6354 6070 4135 0 4795 15437 16456 11944

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.142 0.279 0.266 0.181 0.000 0.210 0.677 0.721 0.524HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.135 0.265 0.253 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.743 0.785 0.597

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Lengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Un

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty G

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.5 0.5 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.8 0.2 0.48 0 0.12 0 0.8 0.2 0.48 0 0.12 0 0.70 0.30 0.42 TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.32 0.50 0.50 0.16 0 0.16 0 0.5 0.5 0.16 0 0.16 0 0.7 0.3 0.224 0 0.096 0 0.7 0.3 0.224 0 0.096 0 0.40 0.60 0.128 (Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.08 0.50 0.50 0.04 0 0.04 0 0.5 0.5 0.04 0 0.04 0 0.7 0.3 0.056 0 0.024 0 0.7 0.3 0.056 0 0.024 0 0.50 0.50 0.04 

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 5

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 1 0 0 000100000100000100000 1.00 0.00 0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0 1 0 000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0 1 0 000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 1

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.76 0 0.24 0 1 0.76 0 0.24 0 1 0.588 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.342 0.364 0.542 0.249 0.168 0.252 0.459 0.518 0.257Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 0.269 0.342 0.526 0.230 0.187 0.296 0.550 0.521 0.229CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 0.308 0.391 0.601 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.100 0.100 0.080Diamonds 0.135 0.265 0.253 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.743 0.785 0.597

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Un

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty G

Both TBE Pass-Pass 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

Pass-TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 85% 85% 26% 85% 10% 85% 23% 85% 10% 85% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 85% 85% 26% 85% 10% 85% 23% 85% 10% Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 85% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 85% 85% 46% 85% 0% 85% 10% 85% 0% 85% 55% 85% 0% 85% 10% 85% 0% 85% 1

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Un

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty G

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0027 0.0027 0.0036 0.0036 0.0072 0.0018 0.0086 0.0022 0.0008 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0010 0.0010 0.0017 0.0007 0.0020 0.0009 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0034 0.0000 0.0034 0.0000 0.0046 0.0000 0.0046 0.0000 0.0089 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 0.0107 0.0000 0.0030 0.0000 0.0009 0.

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0034 0.0034 0.0000 0.0000 0.0046 0.0046 0.0000 0.0000 0.0089 0.0089 0.0000 0.0000 0.0107 0.0107 0.0000 0.0000 0.0009 0.0009 0.

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0014 0.0014 0.0018 0.0018 0.0009 0.0009 0.0011 0.0011 0.0002 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0006 0.0006 0.0000 0.0008 0.0008 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0006 0.0000 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0015 0.0015 0.0000 0.0000 0.0020 0.0020 0.0000 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 0.0000 0.0000 0.0013 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 

Total 0.0068 0.0034 0.0000 0.0034 0.0000 0.0091 0.0046 0.0000 0.0046 0.0000 0.0114 0.0089 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 0.0137 0.0107 0.0000 0.0030 0.0000 0.0014 0.0009 0.

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Un

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty G

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0010 0.0010 0.0017 0.0007 0.0020 0.0009 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0004 0.0004 0.0005 0.0005 0.0008 0.0004 0.0010 0.0004 0.0001 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.

Checking total 0.0011 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 0.0030 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0002 0.

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 0.0000 0.0014 0.0014 0.0000 0.0025 0.0025 0.0000 0.0030 0.0030 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 0.

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0003 0.00032 0.00000 0.0004 0.00043 0.00000 0.0004 0.00036 0.00000 0.0004 0.00043 0.00000 0.0001 

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0008 0.00076 0.00000 0.0010 0.00101 0.00000 0.0007 0.00072 0.00000 0.0009 0.00086 0.00000 0.0002 

Total 0.0022 0.0011 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 0.0029 0.0014 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 0.0036 0.0025 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 0.0043 0.0030 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0004 0.0002 0.

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0090 0.0800 0.0120 0.1000 0.0150 0.1200 0.0180 0.0018

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits ca

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight

Like Train

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision Ra

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Worksheet 2 - B,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability, Bloomington Sub-corridor, Rest 

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head On 

Collision Distribution Head On Collision Distribution Head On 

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Head On 

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On

Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head OnHead On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Head On

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Rear End/Side Head On

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 7 7 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 16 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500Private 1 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 16 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 1 0 0.650Private 6 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 16 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 1 0.800Private 0 6 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 7 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 16 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj 

Private 1 0.100 

50 Public_gates_lights 16 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0034 0.0046 0.008

Public_other 1 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0014 0.0018 0.000

Private 6 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0006 0.0008 0.000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0015 0.0020 0.001

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0011 0.0014 0.002

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0003 0.0004 0.000

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0008 0.0010 0.000

(conseq)

14.0 88.35 90.55 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 105

15.0 90.55 92.47 CP Adjacent (M) 1.92 40 60 60 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

16.0 92.47 94.97 Siding (M) 2.50 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 

17.0 94.97 96.81 CP Adjacent (M) 1.84 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 1.29

18.0 96.81 100.28 Plain 3.47 50 79 79 105 40 2.17 Pass Loco Hits Loco 

19.0 100.28 102.25 CP Adjacent (M) 1.97 40 60 60 79 50 4.9 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 20.0 102.25 102.25 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 21.0 102.25 104.60 CP Adjacent (M) 2.35 40 60 60 79 60 2.17 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 

22.0 104.60 106.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.83 50 79 79 105 79 4.9 7.07 2.17

23.0 106.43 108.83 Siding (M) 2.40 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 4.9 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0011 0.0021 0.00124.0 108.83 111.36 CP Adjacent (M) 2.53 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0003 0.0004 0.000

25.0 111.36 113.30 Plain 1.94 50 79 79 105 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0008 0.0007 0.000

26.0 113.30 116.36 Plain 3.06 50 79 79 105 50 027.0 116.36 118.83 Plain 2.47 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0

28.0 118.83 121.40 CP Adjacent (M) 2.57 50 79 79 105 60 0 0 0

29.0 121.40 123.57 Siding (M) 2.17 40 60 79 79 79 0 0 0

30.0 123.57 124.38 Siding (M) 0.81 25 40 40 40 105 0 0 0

31.0 124.38 124.86 Siding (M) 0.48 25 40 40 40 Freight 25 0

40 6.2450 8.77

Passenger 40 0 0 0

Length Check 36.5 36.5 60 6.24 6.24 0

79 8.77 8.77 6.24

105 0 0 8.77

Freight 25 0

40 050 0

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 000

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 000

Equipped Freight 1.43 2.28 105 0 0 0

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 13.14

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 00079 13.14 13.14 0

Timeout (secs) 0.00 105 0 0 13.14

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 1.29

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 8.41

Fallback Mode 5.00 50 26.81

Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29

60 8.41 6.24 0

79 26.81 28.98 8.41

Seats 320.00 105 0 0 26.81

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Checking Totals 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Freight 

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation 

Representative Speed 105 mph

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and C

Representative Speed 79 mph

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Worksheet 3 - B,N,R: - Risk Calculations - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability, Bloomington Sub-corridor, Rest of Year

Representative Speed 50 mph

Representative Speed 40 mph

Posted Speed (mph) Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies 

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles
119

120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227228229230231232233234235236237238239

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (million

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00342 Incl 0.00342 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00010 320 0.6 192 0.0015 0.00004 0 1 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00135 Incl 0.00135 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00001 0 1 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00058 Incl 0.00058 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00002 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0 1 0.009116 0.0001

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00149 Incl 0.00149 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0013 0.00004 0 1 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.00010 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00001 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.00026 320 0.6 192 0.0013 0.00004 0Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.00022 320 0.6 192 0.0019 0.00002 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.00031 320 0.6 192 0.0026 0.00002 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.0017 0.00017 0

0.00108 0.01087 0.00035 1 0.0002

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21553 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21553 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21553 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.009116 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21553 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.0000

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00747 Incl 0.00747 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00135 320 0.6 192 0.062 0.0022 2676 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00102 Incl 0.00102 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00018 320 0.6 192 0.003 0.0002 182 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00055 Incl 0.00055 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00010 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 98 0 0.009116 0.0000Pass car hit by Loco 0.00119 Incl 0.00119 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00022 320 0.6 192 0.020 0.0009 850 0 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.00064 320 0.6 192 0.007 0.0002 287Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.00166 320 0.6 192 0.035 0.0012 1480Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.00144 320 0.6 192 0.058 0.0009 3757Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.00202 320 0.6 192 0.081 0.0013 5247Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.022 0.0022 0

0.00762 0.28969 0.00916 14575 0.0000

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00396 Incl 0.00396 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00229 320 0.6 192 0.187 0.0070 7991 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00062 Incl 0.00062 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00036 320 0.6 192 0.012 0.0006 626 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00035 Incl 0.00035 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00020 320 0.6 192 0.007 0.0003 356 0 0.009116 0.0000Pass car hit by Loco 0.00072 Incl 0.00072 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00042 320 0.6 192 0.067 0.0026 2907 0 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.00205 320 0.6 192 0.038 0.0013 1613Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.00531 320 0.6 192 0.195 0.0069 8346Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.00461 320 0.6 192 0.248 0.0040 21160Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.00643 320 0.6 192 0.346 0.0056 29554Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.091 0.0091 0

Total 0.02166 1.18934 0.03738 72553 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.03036 1.48990 0.04688 87129 0.0002

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00531 0.36271 0.01383 15686

Intrusion Collisions 0.01002 0.27512 0.00977 11726

Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916

Broken Rail 0.00876 0.42983 0.00689 34801

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Rate Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Rate 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (million

0 0.000000 0.0000

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.001079163 Incl 0.00108 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00003 0.00001 0.000001 $3 0 0.028894 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000323749 Incl 0.00032 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $1 0 0.030187 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.000755414 Incl 0.00076 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00002 0.00000 0.000000 $1

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00006 0.00001 0.000001 $1Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00006 0.00001 0.000001 $1

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00012 0.00001 0.000001 $18

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00039 0.00002 0.000002 $59Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00032 0.000032 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0007 0.0004 0.00004 $83 0.0000

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0021 Incl 0.00215 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00039 0.00043 0.000043 $105 1 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0004 Incl 0.00035 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00006 0.00006 0.000006 $14 1 0.028894 0.0006Frt car hit by Loco 0.0007 Incl 0.00073 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00013 0.00000 0.000000 $15 1 0.030187 0.0006

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00041 0.00009 0.000009 $11Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00038 0.00008 0.000009 $11

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00080 0.00011 0.000011 $299

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00255 0.00037 0.000037 $957Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00329 0.000329 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00472 0.0044 0.00044 $1,413 0.0012

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0011 Incl 0.00111 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00064 0.00109 0.000109 $272 0 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0002 Incl 0.00021 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00012 0.00017 0.000017 $42 0 0.028894 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.0005 Incl 0.00046 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00027 0.00000 0.000000 $47 0 0.030187 0.0000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.00131 0.00046 0.000046 $57Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.00120 0.00042 0.000042 $53

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.00255 0.00089 0.000089 $1,492

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.00814 0.00285 0.000285 $4,769Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.01321 0.001321 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.01423 0.0191 0.00191 $6,733 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.01964 0.0239 0.0024 $8,229 0.0012

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00168 0.00176 0.00018 500

Intrusion Collisions 0.00342 0.00107 0.00011 134Diamond Collisions 0.00127 0.00056 0.00006 213Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810Broken Rail 0.01108 0.00324 0.00032 5786Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0Grade Crossing Collisions

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones) Table 3.6b: Risk Calculatio
240

241242243244245246247248249250251252253254255256257258259260261262263264265266267268269270271272273274275276277278279280281

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fataliti

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew Injuries Crew Fatalities per 10 Years 

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) 

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 7 109326 0.038 320 0.60 192 0.0206 0.0003 1913

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00531 0.36271 0.0138Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.01002 0.27512 0.0097

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000236 0.00253 0.0000

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.0049Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00876 0.42983 0.0068

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 16 249888 0.200 320 0.60 192 0.4030 0.0060 39182 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.0114

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.0231Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 15618 0.005 320 0.60 192 0.0094 0.0001 918

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 16 249888 0.275 320 0.60 192 0.9816 0.0146 95107 Total, All Scenarios 0.58894 3.05212 0.0701

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 1 15618 0.012 320 0.60 192 0.0446 0.0007 4323Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 6 93708 0.028 320 0.60 192 0.1004 0.0015 9727 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00168 0.00176 0.0001

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 2.28 7 41544 0.006 0.00075 0.00003 125 Intrusion Collisions 0.00342 0.00107 0.0001

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 2.28 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00127 0.00056 0.0000

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 2.28 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.0001

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 2.28 16 94957 0.028 0.00712 0.00037 1424 Broken Rail 0.01108 0.00324 0.0003

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 2.28 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.0016Private 0.10 0% 0.100 2.28 1 5935 0.001 0.00015 0.00001 30 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.0012

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 2.28 16 94957 0.034 0.01333 0.00068 2666

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 2.28 1 5935 0.002 0.00069 0.00004 139 Total, All Scenarios 0.09647 0.04818 0.0036Private 0.12 0% 0.120 2.28 6 35609 0.004 0.00167 0.00009 333

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 7 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.68541 3.10030 0.0738

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 16 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 300000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 16 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 6 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.558 1.560 0.023 151171

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.076 0.024 0.001 4717Train Type 0.634 1.58 0.02 155889

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings

Total Passenger + Freight

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.71 0.50 0.50 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.5 0.5 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.70 0.30 0.497 

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.29 0.50 0.50 0.145 0 0.145 0 0.5 0.5 0.145 0 0.145 0 0.7 0.3 0.203 0 0.087 0 0.7 0.3 0.203 0 0.087 0 0.40 0.60 0.116 

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 100000100000100000100000 1.00 0.00 0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.771 0 0.229 0 1 0.771 0 0.229 0 1 0.613 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.342 0.364 0.542 0.249 0.168 0.252 0.459 0.518 0.257

Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 0.269 0.342 0.526 0.230 0.187 0.296 0.550 0.521 0.229CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 0.308 0.391 0.601 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.100 0.100 0.080Diamonds 0.135 0.265 0.253 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.743 0.785 0.597

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

Pass-TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 85% 85% 26% 85% 10% 85% 23% 85% 10% 85% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 85% 85% 26% 85% 10% 85% 23% 85% 10% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 85% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 85% 85% 46% 85% 0% 85% 10% 85% 0% 85% 55% 85% 0% 85% 10% 85% 0% 85% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0032 0.0032 0.0043 0.0043 0.0085 0.0021 0.0102 0.0026 0.0009 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.0015 0.0007 0.0018 0.0008 0.0001 TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0038 0.0000 0.0038 0.0000 0.0051 0.0000 0.0051 0.0000 0.0100 0.0000 0.0028 0.0000 0.0121 0.0000 0.0033 0.0000 0.0010 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0038 0.0038 0.0000 0.0000 0.0051 0.0051 0.0000 0.0000 0.0100 0.0100 0.0000 0.0000 0.0121 0.0121 0.0000 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0016 0.0016 0.0021 0.0021 0.0011 0.0011 0.0013 0.0013 0.0002 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0007 0.0007 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0006 0.0000 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0017 0.0017 0.0000 0.0000 0.0023 0.0023 0.0000 0.0000 0.0012 0.0012 0.0000 0.0000 0.0015 0.0015 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 

Total 0.0077 0.0038 0.0000 0.0038 0.0000 0.0103 0.0051 0.0000 0.0051 0.0000 0.0128 0.0100 0.0000 0.0028 0.0000 0.0154 0.0121 0.0000 0.0033 0.0000 0.0015 0.0010 

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.0015 0.0007 0.0018 0.0008 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0007 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0009 0.0000 0.0009 0.0000 0.0015 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0018 0.0000 0.0008 0.0000 0.0001 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0007 0.0007 0.0000 0.0009 0.0009 0.0000 0.0015 0.0015 0.0000 0.0018 0.0018 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0001 0.00013 0.00000 0.0002 0.00017 0.00000 0.0002 0.00016 0.00000 0.0002 0.00020 0.00000 0.0000 

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0005 0.00052 0.00000 0.0007 0.00070 0.00000 0.0005 0.00049 0.00000 0.0006 0.00059 0.00000 0.0001 

Total 0.0013 0.0007 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0017 0.0009 0.0000 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 0.0022 0.0015 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0026 0.0018 0.0000 0.0008 0.0000 0.0003 0.0001 

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0090 0.0800 0.0120 0.1000 0.0150 0.1200 0.0180 0.0018

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car b

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 

Collision Distribution Head On Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/SideHead On

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision DistributionHead On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side

Rear End/Side

Head O

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On 

Collision Distribution Head O

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side 

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On

Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Collision Ratios Collision R

Collision Type

Like Trains Unlike Trains

Rear End/Side

Head O

Collision Distribution Head O

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Worksheet 2 - B,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability, Bloomington Sub-corridor, Su

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Collision Type

Collision Ratios

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight

Like Tra

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Like Trains Unlike Trains

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 7 7 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 16 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500Private 1 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 16 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 1 0 0.650Private 6 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 16 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 1 0.800Private 0 6 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 7 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 16 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj 

Private 1 0.100 

50 Public_gates_lights 16 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0038 0.0051 0.010

Public_other 1 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0016 0.0021 0.001

Private 6 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0005 0.0007 0.000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0017 0.0023 0.001

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0007 0.0009 0.001

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0001 0.0002 0.000

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0005 0.0007 0.000

(conseq)

14.0 88.35 90.55 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 105

15.0 90.55 92.47 CP Adjacent (M) 1.92 40 60 60 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

16.0 92.47 94.97 Siding (M) 2.50 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 

17.0 94.97 96.81 CP Adjacent (M) 1.84 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 1.29

18.0 96.81 100.28 Plain 3.47 50 79 79 105 40 2.17 Pass Loco Hits Loco 

19.0 100.28 102.25 CP Adjacent (M) 1.97 40 60 60 79 50 4.9 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 20.0 102.25 102.25 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 21.0 102.25 104.60 CP Adjacent (M) 2.35 40 60 60 79 60 2.17 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 

22.0 104.60 106.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.83 50 79 79 105 79 4.9 7.07 2.17

23.0 106.43 108.83 Siding (M) 2.40 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 4.9 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0007 0.0013 0.00024.0 108.83 111.36 CP Adjacent (M) 2.53 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0001 0.0002 0.000

25.0 111.36 113.30 Plain 1.94 50 79 79 105 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0005 0.0005 0.000

26.0 113.30 116.36 Plain 3.06 50 79 79 105 50 027.0 116.36 118.83 Plain 2.47 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0

28.0 118.83 121.40 CP Adjacent (M) 2.57 50 79 79 105 60 0 0 0

29.0 121.40 123.57 Siding (M) 2.17 40 60 79 79 79 0 0 0

30.0 123.57 124.38 Siding (M) 0.81 25 40 40 40 105 0 0 0

31.0 124.38 124.86 Siding (M) 0.48 25 40 40 40 Freight 25 0

40 6.2450 8.77

Passenger 40 0 0 0

Length Check 36.5 36.5 60 6.24 6.24 0

79 8.77 8.77 6.24

105 0 0 8.77

Freight 25 0

40 050 0

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 000

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 000

Equipped Freight 1.43 2.28 105 0 0 0

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 13.14

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 00079 13.14 13.14 0

Timeout (secs) 0.00 105 0 0 13.14

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 1.29

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 8.41

Fallback Mode 5.00 50 26.81

Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29

60 8.41 6.24 0

79 26.81 28.98 8.41

Seats 320.00 105 0 0 26.81

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Checking Totals 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

Worksheet 3 - B,N,S: - Risk Calculations - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability, Bloomington Sub-corridor, Summer

Representative Speed 50 mph

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and C

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mphRepresentative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed (mph) Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies 

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones) Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation 

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Freight

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Rfepresentative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles
119

120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227228229230231232233234235236237238239

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (million

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00384 Incl 0.00384 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.0005 0.00001 0 1 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00160 Incl 0.00160 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00052 Incl 0.00052 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.009116 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00173 Incl 0.00173 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0005 0.00001 0 1 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.00008 320 0.6 192 0.0004 0.00001 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.00007 320 0.6 192 0.0006 0.00001 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.00010 320 0.6 192 0.0009 0.00001 0Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.0000 0.00006 0

0.00036 0.00308 0.00012 0 0.0000

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6423 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6423 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6423 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.009116 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6423 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.0000

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00844 Incl 0.00844 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00046 320 0.6 192 0.021 0.0007 901 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00120 Incl 0.00120 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00006 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0001 64 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00050 Incl 0.00050 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0000 27 0 0.009116 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00136 Incl 0.00136 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00007 320 0.6 192 0.007 0.0003 290 0 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.00021 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 95

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.00055 320 0.6 192 0.011 0.0004 491Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.00048 320 0.6 192 0.019 0.0003 1248

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.00067 320 0.6 192 0.027 0.0004 1743Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.007 0.0007 0

0.00254 0.09663 0.00306 4858 0.0000

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00448 Incl 0.00448 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00077 320 0.6 192 0.063 0.0024 2695 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00073 Incl 0.00073 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00013 320 0.6 192 0.004 0.0002 221 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00032 Incl 0.00032 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00006 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 96 0 0.009116 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00082 Incl 0.00082 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00014 320 0.6 192 0.023 0.0009 992 0 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.00068 320 0.6 192 0.013 0.0004 536Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.00176 320 0.6 192 0.065 0.0023 2772Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.00153 320 0.6 192 0.082 0.0013 7027Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.00214 320 0.6 192 0.115 0.0018 9815

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.030 0.0030 0

Total 0.00720 0.39640 0.01246 24155 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.01010 0.49612 0.01564 29013 0.0000

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00178 0.12230 0.00466 5286

Intrusion Collisions 0.00333 0.09137 0.00324 3894

Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275

Broken Rail 0.00291 0.14275 0.00229 11558

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (million

0 0.000000 0.0000

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.000651995 Incl 0.00065 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $1 0 0.028894 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000130399 Incl 0.00013 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.030187 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.000521596 Incl 0.00052 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00003 0.00000 0.000000 $4

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00008 0.00000 0.000000 $12Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00007 0.000007 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0001 0.0001 0.00001 $17 0.0000

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0013 Incl 0.00130 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00007 0.00008 0.000008 $19 1 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0002 Incl 0.00015 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00001 0.00001 0.000001 $2 1 0.028894 0.0001Frt car hit by Loco 0.0005 Incl 0.00050 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00003 0.00000 0.000000 $3 1 0.030187 0.0001

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00009 0.00002 0.000002 $2Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00008 0.00002 0.000002 $2

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00017 0.00002 0.000002 $62

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00053 0.00008 0.000008 $199Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00069 0.000069 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00097 0.0009 0.00009 $290 0.0003

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0007 Incl 0.00067 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00012 0.00020 0.000020 $49 0 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0001 Incl 0.00009 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00002 0.00002 0.000002 $5 0 0.028894 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.0003 Incl 0.00032 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00006 0.00000 0.000000 $10 0 0.030187 0.0000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00027 0.00010 0.000010 $12Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00025 0.00009 0.000009 $11

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00053 0.00019 0.000019 $311

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00170 0.00059 0.000059 $993Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00275 0.000275 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00293 0.0039 0.00039 $1,391 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.00404 0.0049 0.0005 $1,698 0.0003

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00030 0.00030 0.00003 88

Intrusion Collisions 0.00071 0.00022 0.00002 28Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00017 0.00002 63Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377Broken Rail 0.00231 0.00067 0.00007 1205Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0Grade Crossing Collisions

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones) Table 3.6b: Risk Calculatio

Per 10 years
240

241242243244245246247248249250251252253254255256257258259260261262263264265266267268269270271272273274275276277278279280281

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fataliti

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew Injuries Crew Fatalities per 10 Years 

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) 

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 7 36309 0.013 320 0.60 192 0.0068 0.0001 635

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00178 0.12230 0.0046Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00333 0.09137 0.0032

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000070 0.00076 0.0000

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.0016Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00291 0.14275 0.0022

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 16 82992 0.066 320 0.60 192 0.1338 0.0020 13013 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.0038

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.0077Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 5187 0.002 320 0.60 192 0.0031 0.0000 305

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 16 82992 0.091 320 0.60 192 0.3260 0.0048 31587 Total, All Scenarios 0.19561 1.01487 0.0233

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 1 5187 0.004 320 0.60 192 0.0148 0.0002 1436Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 6 31122 0.009 320 0.60 192 0.0333 0.0005 3230 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00030 0.00030 0.0000

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 1.43 7 8654 0.001 0.00016 0.00001 26 Intrusion Collisions 0.00071 0.00022 0.0000

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00017 0.0000

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.0000

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 1.43 16 19780 0.006 0.00148 0.00008 297 Broken Rail 0.00231 0.00067 0.0000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.0003Private 0.10 0% 0.100 1.43 1 1236 0.000 0.00003 0.00000 6 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.0002

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 1.43 16 19780 0.007 0.00278 0.00014 555

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 1.43 1 1236 0.000 0.00014 0.00001 29 Total, All Scenarios 0.02016 0.01002 0.0007Private 0.12 0% 0.120 1.43 6 7417 0.001 0.00035 0.00002 69

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 7 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.21577 1.02490 0.0241

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 16 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 300000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 16 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 6 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.185 0.518 0.008 50207

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.016 0.005 0.000 983Train Type 0.201 0.52 0.01 51189

Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total Passenger + Freight

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 1671 1671 0 0.668 58 0 1275 0 2946 0 2946

Appl'n Time (sec) 13.8 40 3686 1619 2068 0.668 14 77 308 1692 1927 3760 5686Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 5452 3384 2068 0.668 36 77 791 1692 4176 3760 7935Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 1452 1452 0 1.293 48 0 1065 0 2517 0 2517

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 3177 3177 0 1.293 71 0 1565 0 4742 0 4742

Coefficient B 0 79 5433 3035 2398 1.293 25 68 541 1499 3576 3896 7472Safety Factor 1.25 105 9493 7096 2398 1.293 54 68 1190 1499 8286 3896 12182

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 3 Frt Red'd Consq 35 1125 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response (sec 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start End Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freig

Number (milepost (milepost) Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops 

(Consq*) (Other)

32.0 124.9 126.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.6 8659.2 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 Bloom Yard 2946 2517 2517 0 0 0 5713 6142 6142 0000000000000

33.0 126.5 126.5 Diamond 0.0 0.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0

34.0 126.5 128.8 CP Adjacent (M) 2.3 11932.8 30.0 50.0 50.0 25.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 2946 4742 3576 0 0 3896 8987 7191 4461 0000000000000

35.0 128.8 131.0 Plain 2.2 11616.0 60.0 79.0 90.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4176 3576 3576 3896 3896 3896 3544 4144 4144 0000000000000

36.0 131.0 133.7 Plain 2.8 14572.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 60.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 6501 7101 2391 0000000000000

37.0 133.7 136.9 Plain 3.2 16790.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3896 8855 9319 4609 0000000000000

38.0 136.9 138.6 CP Adjacent (M) 1.7 9134.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 849 1063 1663 0 0 0 3047 0 0 462 0000000

39.0 138.6 141.3 Siding (M) McLean (sig'd) 2.7 14097.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 McLean 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 6026 6626 1916 0000000000000

40.0 141.3 143.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.0 10824.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 2538 2752 3352 0 0 0 1358 0 0 462 0000000

41.0 143.4 148.3 Plain 5.0 26136.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 60.0 79.0 79.0 2.0 S Fertilizer, Atlanta 4176 4742 3576 0 0 3896 21960 21394 18664 0000000000000

42.0 148.3 151.0 Plain 2.7 14044.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 E Lincoln Grain 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5973 6573 1863 0000000000000

43.0 151.0 153.6 CP Adjacent (U) 2.6 13728.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Kruger 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5656 6256 1546 0000000000000

44.0 153.6 155.6 Siding (U) Elkhart (Unsig'd) 2.0 10612.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 4176 4742 3576 0 0 3896 6437 5871 3141 0000000000000

45.0 155.6 155.6 Diamond 0.0 0.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.046.0 155.6 157.3 CP Adjacent (U) 1.7 8923.2 50.0 70.0 70.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 1.0 Havana Ind. Lincoln 4176 4742 3576 3760 0 3896 988 4182 1452 0000000000000

47.0 157.3 160.1 Plain 2.8 14731.2 60.0 79.0 90.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4176 3576 3576 3760 3896 3896 6796 7260 7260 0000000000000

48.0 160.1 162.1 Plain 2.1 10876.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 2591 2942 3405 0 0 0 1305 0 0 462 0000000

49.0 162.1 164.0 Plain 1.9 10190.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 1905 2255 2719 0 0 0 1991 0 0 462 0000000

50.0 164.0 166.2 Plain 2.1 11193.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 2908 3258 3722 0 0 0 988 0 0 462 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

51.0 166.2 168.3 CP Adjacent (U) 2.2 11510.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Elkhart Grain 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3225 3575 4039 0 0 0 671 0 0 4620 0 0 0 0 0 0 

52.0 168.3 170.4 Siding (U) Elkhart (Unsig'd) 2.1 10876.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 2591 2942 3405 0 0 0 1305 0 0 462 0 0 00000

53.0 170.4 172.3 CP Adjacent (U) 1.9 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 1958 2308 2772 0 0 0 1939 0 0 462 0000000

54.0 172.3 175.8 Plain 3.5 18480.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3896 10545 11008 6298 0000000000000

55.0 175.8 179.5 Plain 3.7 19272.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4176 3576 3576 3760 3896 3896 11337 11800 11800 0000000000000

56.0 179.5 181.0 CP Adjacent (M) 1.5 7920.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4176 3576 3576 3744 3896 3896 0 448 448 15 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 015

Check Total 56.1Train Type Representative 

Speed

(mph)

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 2.7 14097.6

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 2.7 14097.6 2.7 14097.6 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 2.7 14097.6

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 4.1 21489.6

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 2.0 10612.8 2.0 10612.8 0.0 079 2.1 10876.8 2.1 10876.8 2.0 10612.8

105 0.0 0 2.1 10876.8

Freight 25 3.9 20592

40 0.0 050 5.3 27878.4

Passenger 40 1.6 8659.2 1.6 8659.2 1.6 8659.2

60 2.3 11932.8 2.3 11932.8 0.0 079 5.3 27878.4 5.3 27878.4 3.8 19852.8

105 0.0 0 3.8 19958.4

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 8.4 44404.8

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 1.7 8923.2 1.7 8923.2 0.0 079 6.7 35481.6 6.7 35481.6 1.7 8923.2

105 0.0 0 6.7 35481.6

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 31.8 167904

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 5.0 26136 2.8 14572.8 0.0 079 26.9 141768 29.0 153331.2 13.6 71755.2

105 0.0 0 18.2 96148.8

Check Total 56.1 56.1 56.1 56.1

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 14097.6Number Siding (M) Segments 1 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 6026 6626 1916

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.296 0.254 0.588 0.276 0.276 0.276 0.427 0.470 0.136

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.281 0.241 0.558 0.263 0.263 0.263 0.506 0.547 0.229 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 21489.6Number Siding (M) Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 8351 8317 11861 3760 3896 6487 9379 9276 3141

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.389 0.387 0.552 0.175 0.181 0.302 0.436 0.432 0.146HS Pass 0 652 1848

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.369 0.368 0.524 0.166 0.172 0.313 0.515 0.510 0.213 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (M) Segments (ft) 48470.4Number CP Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C FT0 Freight 0 3 2497 18418 17985 26239 11537 11688 11179 18516 18797 11052

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.380 0.371 0.541 0.238 0.241 0.231 0.382 0.388 0.228HS Pass 0 772 1728

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.361 0.353 0.514 0.226 0.229 0.250 0.463 0.468 0.286 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (U) Segments (ft) 44404.8Number CP Adjacent Segments 4 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 16702 15468 28432 15175 11688 12975 12527 17248 2998

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.376 0.348 0.640 0.342 0.263 0.292 0.282 0.388 0.068HS Pass 0 652 1848

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.357 0.331 0.608 0.325 0.250 0.304 0.368 0.469 0.138 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Plain Track Segments (ft) 167904Number CP Adjacent Segments 11 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Worksheet 1-Sp,N: IDOT Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability, Springfield Sub-co

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance (ft) Total Zone Lengths (ft)

Sight Distance (ft)

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Lengths in Feet

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Zone C within Sight Distance

O

Zon

Overlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 TotalsZone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Full Prevention

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Posted Speed (mph)

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (including free running in TO) (ft)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prevention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop Overlap of Stopping Distance Overlap of Zone A1 Into 

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Springfield Sub-Corridor, MP 124.9 (Bloomington) - MP 181.0 (Ridgely)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Braking Duration (secs)

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Industry Siding 

Freight

Plain Track

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Representative Speed (mph)

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
160

161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN 

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 18418 17985 26239 000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.110 0.107 0.156 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 389 2111

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.104 0.102 0.148 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.100 0.100 0.084 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 40128.0Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 4 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 10111 10983 10557 4135 0 7193 25882 29145 22378

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.252 0.274 0.263 0.103 0.000 0.179 0.645 0.726 0.558HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.239 0.260 0.250 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.713 0.790 0.630

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Lengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.62 0.50 0.50 0.31 0 0.31 0 0.5 0.5 0.31 0 0.31 0 0.8 0.2 0.496 0 0.124 0 0.8 0.2 0.496 0 0.124 0 0.70 0.30 0.434 

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.30 0.50 0.50 0.15 0 0.15 0 0.5 0.5 0.15 0 0.15 0 0.7 0.3 0.21 0 0.09 0 0.7 0.3 0.21 0 0.09 0 0.40 0.60 0.12 

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.08 0.50 0.50 0.04 0 0.04 0 0.5 0.5 0.04 0 0.04 0 0.7 0.3 0.056 0 0.024 0 0.7 0.3 0.056 0 0.024 0 0.50 0.50 0.04 One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 100000100000100000100000 1.00 0.00 0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.762 0 0.238 0 1 0.762 0 0.238 0 1 0.594 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.281 0.241 0.558 0.263 0.263 0.263 0.506 0.547 0.229

Siding (U) 0.369 0.368 0.524 0.166 0.172 0.313 0.515 0.510 0.213CP Adjacent (M) 0.361 0.353 0.514 0.226 0.229 0.250 0.463 0.468 0.286CP Adjacent (U) 0.357 0.331 0.608 0.325 0.250 0.304 0.368 0.469 0.138Plain Track 0.104 0.102 0.148 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.100 0.100 0.084Diamonds 0.239 0.260 0.250 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.713 0.790 0.630

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

Pass-TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 85% 85% 70% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 85% 85% 23% 85% 21% 85% 29% 85% 14% 85% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 85% 85% 23% 85% 21% 85% 29% 85% 14% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 85% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 85% 85% 51% 85% 0% 85% 51% 85% 0% 85% 46% 85% 0% 85% 37% 85% 0% 85% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0028 0.0028 0.0037 0.0037 0.0074 0.0019 0.0089 0.0022 0.0008 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.0016 0.0007 0.0019 0.0008 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0035 0.0000 0.0035 0.0000 0.0046 0.0000 0.0046 0.0000 0.0090 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 0.0108 0.0000 0.0030 0.0000 0.0009 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0035 0.0035 0.0000 0.0000 0.0046 0.0046 0.0000 0.0000 0.0090 0.0090 0.0000 0.0000 0.0108 0.0108 0.0000 0.0000 0.0009 0.0009 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0014 0.0014 0.0019 0.0019 0.0009 0.0009 0.0011 0.0011 0.0002 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0007 0.0007 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0006 0.0000 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0015 0.0015 0.0000 0.0000 0.0020 0.0020 0.0000 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 0.0000 0.0000 0.0013 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 

Total 0.0069 0.0035 0.0000 0.0035 0.0000 0.0092 0.0046 0.0000 0.0046 0.0000 0.0116 0.0090 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 0.0139 0.0108 0.0000 0.0030 0.0000 0.0014 0.0009 

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.0016 0.0007 0.0019 0.0008 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0004 0.0007 0.0005 0.0005 0.0008 0.0004 0.0010 0.0004 0.0001 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0010 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0024 0.0000 0.0010 0.0000 0.0029 0.0000 0.0012 0.0000 0.0002 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0000 0.0014 0.0014 0.0000 0.0024 0.0024 0.0000 0.0029 0.0029 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0005 0.00050 0.00000 0.0004 0.00042 0.00000 0.0003 0.00035 0.00000 0.0004 0.00042 0.00000 0.0001 

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0009 b 0.00090 0.00000 0.0010 0.00096 0.00000 0.0007 0.00069 0.00000 0.0008 0.00082 0.00000 0.0002 

Total 0.0024 0.0010 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0028 0.0014 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 0.0035 0.0024 0.0000 0.0010 0.0000 0.0041 0.0029 0.0000 0.0012 0.0000 0.0004 0.0002 

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0094 0.0800 0.0120 0.1000 0.0150 0.1200 0.0180 0.0018

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car b

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 

Collision Distribution Head On Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/SideHead On

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision DistributionHead On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side

Rear End/Side

Head O

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On 

Collision Distribution Head O

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side 

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On

Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Collision Ratios Collision R

Collision Type

Like Trains Unlike Trains

Rear End/Side

Head O

Collision Distribution Head O

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Worksheet 2 - Sp,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability, Springfield Sub-corridor, Rest 

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Collision Type

Collision Ratios

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight

Like Tra

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Like Trains Unlike Trains

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 2

Public_other 0 0 0.300Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 14 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 5 1 0.650Private 5 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 13 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 4 0.800Private 0 4 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 0 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 2

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj 

Private 0 0.100 

50 Public_gates_lights 26 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0035 0.0046 0.009

Public_other 5 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0014 0.0019 0.000

Private 5 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0005 0.0007 0.000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0015 0.0020 0.001

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0010 0.0014 0.002

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0005 0.0004 0.000

32 $124.86 $126.50 CP Adjacent (M) 1.64 25 40 40 40 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0009 0.0010 0.00033 $126.50 $126.50 Diamond 0.00 25 40 40 40

34 $126.50 $128.76 CP Adjacent (M) 2.26 25 60 60 79

35 $128.76 $130.96 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

36 $130.96 $133.72 Plain 2.76 50 79 60 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 

37 $133.72 $136.90 Plain 3.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0

38 $136.90 $138.63 CP Adjacent (M) 1.73 50 79 79 105 40 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 39 $138.63 $141.30 Siding (M) 2.67 50 79 79 105 50 2.67 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 

40 $141.30 $143.35 CP Adjacent (M) 2.05 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 

41 $143.35 $148.30 Plain 4.95 50 60 79 79 60 0 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 

42 $148.30 $150.96 Plain 2.66 50 79 79 105 79 2.67 2.67 0

43 $150.96 $153.56 CP Adjacent (U) 2.60 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.67 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0024 0.0000 0.00144 $153.56 $155.57 Siding (U) 2.01 50 60 60 79 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0003 0.0000 0.000

45 $155.57 $155.57 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0007 0.0000 0.000

46 $155.57 $157.26 CP Adjacent (U) 1.69 50 60 60 79 50 4.07

47 $157.26 $160.05 Plain 2.79 50 79 79 79 Passenger 40 0 0 0

48 $160.05 $162.11 Plain 2.06 50 79 79 105 60 2.01 2.01 0

49 $162.11 $164.04 Plain 1.93 50 79 79 105 79 2.06 2.06 2.01

50 $164.04 $166.16 Plain 2.12 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.06

51 $166.16 $168.34 CP Adjacent (U) 2.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 3.9

52 $168.34 $170.40 Siding (U) 2.06 50 79 79 105 40 053 $170.40 $172.34 CP Adjacent (U) 1.94 50 79 79 105 50 5.2854 $172.34 $175.84 Plain 3.50 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

55 $175.84 $179.49 Plain 3.65 50 79 79 79 60 2.26 2.26 0

56 $179.49 $180.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.50 50 79 79 79 79 5.28 5.28 3.76

105 0 0 3.78

Freight 25 0

40 050 8.41

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 1.69 1.69 0

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 6.72 6.72 1.69

Equipped Freight 1.73 3.16 105 0 0 6.72

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91 274 50 31.8

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 4.95 2.76 079 26.85 29.04 13.59

Timeout (secs) 0 105 0 0 18.21

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 3.9

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 0

Fallback Mode 5 50 52.23

Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

60 10.91 8.72 0

79 43.58 45.77 21.05

Seats 320 105 0 0 33.44

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Check Totals 56.13 56.13 56.13 56.13

Worksheet 3 - Sp,N,R: - Risk Calculations - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability, Springfield Subcorridor, Rest of Year

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 105 mph

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and C

Representative Speed 79 mphRepresentative Speed 50 mph

Representative Speed 60 mph

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mphRepresentative Speed 40 mph

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Passenger Train Occupancy

Freight 

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation 

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Percent Train-Miles in

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies 

Trips/Day

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles
119

120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227228229230231232233234235236237238239

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (million

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00901 Incl 0.00901 9.16 23843 1.64 39103 0.00035 320 0.6 192 0.0056 0.00014 0 2 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00093 Incl 0.00093 9.16 23843 1.64 39103 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00001 0 2 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00051 Incl 0.00051 9.16 23843 1.64 39103 0.00002 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0 2 0.009000 0.0004

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00110 Incl 0.00110 9.16 23843 1.64 39103 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0014 0.00004 0 2 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.00013 320 0.6 192 0.0003 0.00001 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.00032 320 0.6 192 0.0016 0.00006 0Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.00028 320 0.6 192 0.0024 0.00002 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.00039 320 0.6 192 0.0033 0.00003 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.0021 0.00021 0

0.00158 0.01711 0.00052 1 0.0005

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.009000 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.0000

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00349 Incl 0.00349 9.16 23843 21.05 501905 0.00175 320 0.6 192 0.081 0.0029 3465 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00054 Incl 0.00054 9.16 23843 21.05 501905 0.00027 320 0.6 192 0.005 0.0002 268 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00030 Incl 0.00030 9.16 23843 21.05 501905 0.00015 320 0.6 192 0.003 0.0001 146 0 0.009000 0.0000Pass car hit by Loco 0.00062 Incl 0.00062 9.16 23843 21.05 501905 0.00031 320 0.6 192 0.029 0.0012 1234 0 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.00161 320 0.6 192 0.017 0.0006 717Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.00417 320 0.6 192 0.086 0.0030 3704Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.00362 320 0.6 192 0.146 0.0023 9403Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.00505 320 0.6 192 0.204 0.0033 13133Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.054 0.0054 0

0.01693 0.62365 0.01910 32070 0.0000

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00424 Incl 0.00424 9.16 23843 33.44 797326 0.00338 320 0.6 192 0.276 0.0104 11811 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00065 Incl 0.00065 9.16 23843 33.44 797326 0.00052 320 0.6 192 0.017 0.0008 901 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00034 Incl 0.00034 9.16 23843 33.44 797326 0.00027 320 0.6 192 0.009 0.0004 474 0 0.009000 0.0000Pass car hit by Loco 0.00074 Incl 0.00074 9.16 23843 33.44 797326 0.00059 320 0.6 192 0.096 0.0036 4139 0 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.00256 320 0.6 192 0.047 0.0017 2012Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.00662 320 0.6 192 0.243 0.0086 10410Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.00574 320 0.6 192 0.309 0.0050 26392Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.00802 320 0.6 192 0.431 0.0069 36863Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.114 0.0114 0

Total 0.02771 1.54119 0.04882 93002 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.04621 2.18196 0.06845 125073 0.0005

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00770 0.52175 0.01988 22439

Intrusion Collisions 0.01541 0.39492 0.01401 16843

Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0.00733 35795

Broken Rail 0.01347 0.63836 0.01024 49996

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0.01699 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (million

0 0.000000 0.0000

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.002414381 Incl 0.00241 9.16 23843 3.9 92990 0.00022 0.00010 0.000010 $24 0 0.029173 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000348661 Incl 0.00035 9.16 23843 3.9 92990 0.00003 0.00001 0.000001 $3 0 0.030373 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.000686074 Incl 0.00069 9.16 23843 3.9 92990 0.00006 0.00000 0.000000 $3

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00026 0.00002 0.000002 $3Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00024 0.00002 0.000002 $3

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00051 0.00003 0.000003 $77Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00164 0.00009 0.000009 $246Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00135 0.000135 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0030 0.0016 0.00016 $358 0.0000

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.029173 0.0013Frt car hit by Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.030373 0.0014

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 0.00000 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.0028

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0010 Incl 0.00098 9.16 23843 52.23 1245345 0.00122 0.00208 0.000208 $515 0 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0002 Incl 0.00020 9.16 23843 52.23 1245345 0.00025 0.00035 0.000035 $87 0 0.029173 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.0004 Incl 0.00043 9.16 23843 52.23 1245345 0.00053 0.00000 0.000000 $94 0 0.030373 0.0000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.00353 0.00123 0.000123 $155Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.00325 0.00114 0.000114 $143

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.00687 0.00241 0.000241 $4,028Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.02198 0.00769 0.000769 $12,878Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.03566 0.003566 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.03763 0.0506 0.00506 $17,900 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.04061 0.0522 0.0052 $18,258 0.0028

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00232 0.00253 0.00025 725

Intrusion Collisions 0.00728 0.00242 0.00024 304Diamond Collisions 0.00284 0.00125 0.00013 475Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0.00024 4105Broken Rail 0.02362 0.00778 0.00078 13124Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0.00370 0Grade Crossing Collisions

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Per 10 years

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculatio
240

241242243244245246247248249250251252253254255256257258259260261262263264265266267268269270271272273274275276277278279280281

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fataliti

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew Injuries Crew Fatalities per 10 Years 

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) 

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00770 0.52175 0.0198Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.01541 0.39492 0.0140

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000515 0.00554 0.0001

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0.0073Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.01347 0.63836 0.0102

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 16 249888 0.200 320 0.60 192 0.4030 0.0060 39182 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0.0169

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 1 15618 0.010 320 0.60 192 0.0205 0.0003 1990 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 0.0219Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 15618 0.005 320 0.60 192 0.0094 0.0001 918

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 13 203034 0.223 320 0.60 192 0.7976 0.0118 77275 Total, All Scenarios 0.55353 3.66342 0.0905

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 4 62472 0.050 320 0.60 192 0.1785 0.0026 17292Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 4 62472 0.019 320 0.60 192 0.0669 0.0010 6485 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00232 0.00253 0.0002

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 3.16 3 24676 0.004 0.00044 0.00002 74 Intrusion Collisions 0.00728 0.00242 0.0002

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00284 0.00125 0.0001

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0.0002

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Broken Rail 0.02362 0.00778 0.0007

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0.0037Private 0.10 0% 0.100 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0.0019

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 3.16 26 213862 0.077 0.03003 0.00154 6005

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 3.16 5 41127 0.012 0.00481 0.00025 962 Total, All Scenarios 0.14141 0.09063 0.0072Private 0.12 0% 0.120 3.16 5 41127 0.005 0.00192 0.00010 385

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 3 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.69495 3.75405 0.0977

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 300000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 26 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 5 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 5 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.507 1.476 0.022 143142

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.098 0.037 0.002 7427Train Type 0.605 1.51 0.02 150569

Total Passenger + Freight

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks
1

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101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.80 0.50 0.50 0.4 0 0.4 0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0 0.4 0 0.8 0.2 0.64 0 0.16 0 0.8 0.2 0.64 0 0.16 0 0.70 0.30 0.56 

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.20 0.50 0.50 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.7 0.3 0.14 0 0.06 0 0.7 0.3 0.14 0 0.06 0 0.40 0.60 0.08 

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 100000100000100000100000 1.00 0.00 0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.78 0 0.22 0 1 0.78 0 0.22 0 1 0.64 

bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.281 0.241 0.558 0.263 0.263 0.263 0.506 0.547 0.229

Siding (U) 0.369 0.368 0.524 0.166 0.172 0.313 0.515 0.510 0.213CP Adjacent (M) 0.361 0.353 0.514 0.226 0.229 0.250 0.463 0.468 0.286CP Adjacent (U) 0.357 0.331 0.608 0.325 0.250 0.304 0.368 0.469 0.138Plain Track 0.104 0.102 0.148 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.100 0.100 0.084Diamonds 0.239 0.260 0.250 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.713 0.790 0.630

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

Pass-TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 85% 85% 23% 85% 21% 85% 29% 85% 14% 85% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 85% 85% 23% 85% 21% 85% 29% 85% 14% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 85% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 85% 85% 51% 85% 0% 85% 51% 85% 0% 85% 46% 85% 0% 85% 37% 85% 0% 85% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0036 0.0036 0.0048 0.0048 0.0096 0.0024 0.0115 0.0029 0.0010 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0005 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0011 0.0005 0.0013 0.0005 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0041 0.0000 0.0041 0.0000 0.0054 0.0000 0.0054 0.0000 0.0107 0.0000 0.0029 0.0000 0.0128 0.0000 0.0034 0.0000 0.0011 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0041 0.0041 0.0000 0.0000 0.0054 0.0054 0.0000 0.0000 0.0107 0.0107 0.0000 0.0000 0.0128 0.0128 0.0000 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0018 0.0018 0.0024 0.0024 0.0012 0.0012 0.0014 0.0014 0.0002 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0004 0.0004 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0003 0.0003 0.0000 0.0004 0.0004 0.0000 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0019 0.0019 0.0000 0.0000 0.0025 0.0025 0.0000 0.0000 0.0013 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 0.0016 0.0016 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 

Total 0.0081 0.0041 0.0000 0.0041 0.0000 0.0108 0.0054 0.0000 0.0054 0.0000 0.0135 0.0107 0.0000 0.0029 0.0000 0.0162 0.0128 0.0000 0.0034 0.0000 0.0016 0.0011 

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0005 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0011 0.0005 0.0013 0.0005 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0005 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0000 0.0006 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0001 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0006 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 0.0000 0.0013 0.0013 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0001 0.00009 0.00000 0.0001 0.00012 0.00000 0.0001 0.00011 0.00000 0.0001 0.00014 0.00000 0.0000 

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0004 b 0.00036 0.00000 0.0005 0.00048 0.00000 0.0003 0.00034 0.00000 0.0004 0.00041 0.00000 0.0001 

Total 0.0009 0.0005 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0012 0.0006 0.0000 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 0.0015 0.0011 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0018 0.0013 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0002 0.0001 

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0090 0.0800 0.0120 0.1000 0.0150 0.1200 0.0180 0.0018

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car b

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight

Like Tra

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision R

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Worksheet 2 - Sp,N,S: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability, Springfield Sub-corridor, Su

Table 2.5a: Freight Trains In Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head O

Collision Distribution Head OCollision Distribution Head O

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Head O

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On

Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head OnHead On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Rear End/Side Head On

Mauve cells contain data imported from Worksheet 1 in this group of three worksheets covering this sub-corridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.002 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.24 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.016 3495000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.001 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.008 1747000Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.005 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.032 6989000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 2

Public_other 0 0 0.300

Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 14 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500

Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 5 1 0.650

Private 5 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 13 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 4 0.800

Private 0 4 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 0 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 2

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj Private 0 0.100 

50 Public_gates_lights 26 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0041 0.0054 0.010

Public_other 5 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0018 0.0024 0.001

Private 5 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0004 0.0005 0.000

Check Totals 39 39 39 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0019 0.0025 0.001

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0005 0.0006 0.001

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0001 0.0001 0.000

32 $124.86 $126.50 CP Adjacent (M) 1.64 25 40 40 40 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0004 0.0005 0.000

33 $126.50 $126.50 Diamond 0.00 25 40 40 40

34 $126.50 $128.76 CP Adjacent (M) 2.26 25 60 60 79

35 $128.76 $130.96 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

36 $130.96 $133.72 Plain 2.76 50 79 60 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 

37 $133.72 $136.90 Plain 3.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 038 $136.90 $138.63 CP Adjacent (M) 1.73 50 79 79 105 40 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 

39 $138.63 $141.30 Siding (M) 2.67 50 79 79 105 50 2.67 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 40 $141.30 $143.35 CP Adjacent (M) 2.05 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 

41 $143.35 $148.30 Plain 4.95 50 60 79 79 60 0 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 

42 $148.30 $150.96 Plain 2.66 50 79 79 105 79 2.67 2.67 0

43 $150.96 $153.56 CP Adjacent (U) 2.60 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.67 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0010 0.0000 0.000

44 $153.56 $155.57 Siding (U) 2.01 50 60 60 79 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0001 0.0000 0.000

45 $155.57 $155.57 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0003 0.0000 0.000

46 $155.57 $157.26 CP Adjacent (U) 1.69 50 60 60 79 50 4.0747 $157.26 $160.05 Plain 2.79 50 79 79 79 Passenger 40 0 0 0

48 $160.05 $162.11 Plain 2.06 50 79 79 105 60 2.01 2.01 0

49 $162.11 $164.04 Plain 1.93 50 79 79 105 79 2.06 2.06 2.01

50 $164.04 $166.16 Plain 2.12 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.06

51 $166.16 $168.34 CP Adjacent (U) 2.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 3.9

52 $168.34 $170.40 Siding (U) 2.06 50 79 79 105 40 0

53 $170.40 $172.34 CP Adjacent (U) 1.94 50 79 79 105 50 5.28

54 $172.34 $175.84 Plain 3.50 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.6455 $175.84 $179.49 Plain 3.65 50 79 79 79 60 2.26 2.26 0

56 $179.49 $180.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.50 50 79 79 79 79 5.28 5.28 3.76

105 0 0 3.78

Freight 25 0

40 050 8.41

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 1.69 1.69 0

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 6.72 6.72 1.69

Equipped Freight 1.73 3.16 105 0 0 6.72

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91 274 50 31.8

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 4.95 2.76 079 26.85 29.04 13.59

Timeout (secs) 0 105 0 0 18.21

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 3.9

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 0

Fallback Mode 5 50 52.23

Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

60 10.91 8.72 079 43.58 45.77 21.05

Seats 320 105 0 0 33.44

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Check Totals 56.13 56.13 56.13 56.13

Table 3.4: Co

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies 

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation 

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 79 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 105 mph

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Worksheet 3 - Sp,N,R: - Risk Calculations - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability, Springfield Subcorridor, Summer

Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 50 mph

Freight 

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability)

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles
119

120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227228229230231232233234235236237238239

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (million

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.01064 Incl 0.01064 7.73 6683 1.64 10959 0.00012 320 0.6 192 0.0019 0.00004 0 2 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00120 Incl 0.00120 7.73 6683 1.64 10959 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0 2 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00034 Incl 0.00034 7.73 6683 1.64 10959 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 2 0.009000 0.0001Pass car hit by Loco 0.00131 Incl 0.00131 7.73 6683 1.64 10959 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0005 0.00001 0 2 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.00011 320 0.6 192 0.0005 0.00002 0Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.00009 320 0.6 192 0.0008 0.00001 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.00013 320 0.6 192 0.0011 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.0007 0.00007 0

0.00052 0.00567 0.00017 0 0.0001

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.009000 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.0000

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00414 Incl 0.00414 7.73 6683 21.05 140668 0.00058 320 0.6 192 0.027 0.0010 1151 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00070 Incl 0.00070 7.73 6683 21.05 140668 0.00010 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 97 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00020 Incl 0.00020 7.73 6683 21.05 140668 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0000 27 0 0.009000 0.0000Pass car hit by Loco 0.00075 Incl 0.00075 7.73 6683 21.05 140668 0.00011 320 0.6 192 0.010 0.0004 418 0 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.00054 320 0.6 192 0.006 0.0002 238Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.00138 320 0.6 192 0.029 0.0010 1230

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.00120 320 0.6 192 0.048 0.0008 3123

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.00168 320 0.6 192 0.068 0.0011 4362

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.018 0.0018 0

0.00561 0.20707 0.00634 10646 0.0000

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00502 Incl 0.00502 7.73 6683 33.44 223466 0.00112 320 0.6 192 0.091 0.0034 3918 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00083 Incl 0.00083 7.73 6683 33.44 223466 0.00019 320 0.6 192 0.006 0.0003 326 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00023 Incl 0.00023 7.73 6683 33.44 223466 0.00005 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 89 0 0.009000 0.0000Pass car hit by Loco 0.00090 Incl 0.00090 7.73 6683 33.44 223466 0.00020 320 0.6 192 0.032 0.0012 1403 0 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.00085 320 0.6 192 0.016 0.0006 668Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.00220 320 0.6 192 0.081 0.0029 3457

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.00191 320 0.6 192 0.103 0.0016 8765

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.00266 320 0.6 192 0.143 0.0023 12243

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.038 0.0038 0

Total 0.00918 0.51160 0.01620 30869 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.01531 0.72434 0.02271 41515 0.0001

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00252 0.17296 0.00658 7429

Intrusion Collisions 0.00512 0.13116 0.00465 5594

Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0.00244 11888

Broken Rail 0.00447 0.21201 0.00340 16604

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0.00564 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (million

0 0.000000 0.0000

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.001049731 Incl 0.00105 7.73 6683 3.9 26062 0.00003 0.00001 0.000001 $3 0 0.029173 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000112471 Incl 0.00011 7.73 6683 3.9 26062 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.030373 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.000337413 Incl 0.00034 7.73 6683 3.9 26062 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00005 0.00000 0.000000 $1

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00004 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00009 0.00001 0.000001 $14Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00030 0.00002 0.000002 $45

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00024 0.000024 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0005 0.0003 0.00003 $63 0.0000

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.029173 0.0003

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.030373 0.0004

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.0007

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0004 Incl 0.00042 7.73 6683 52.23 349031 0.00015 0.00025 0.000025 $62 0 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0001 Incl 0.00006 7.73 6683 52.23 349031 0.00002 0.00003 0.000003 $7 0 0.029173 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.0002 Incl 0.00021 7.73 6683 52.23 349031 0.00007 0.00000 0.000000 $13 0 0.030373 0.0000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00064 0.00022 0.000022 $28

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00059 0.00021 0.000021 $26

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00125 0.00044 0.000044 $732

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00400 0.00140 0.000140 $2,341

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00648 0.000648 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00672 0.0090 0.00090 $3,210 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.00724 0.0093 0.0009 $3,274 0.0007

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00028 0.00029 0.00003 86

Intrusion Collisions 0.00132 0.00044 0.00004 55Diamond Collisions 0.00080 0.00035 0.00004 133Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0.00004 746Broken Rail 0.00429 0.00142 0.00014 2386Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0.00067 0Grade Crossing Collisions

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones) Table 3.6b: Risk Calculatio
240

241242243244245246247248249250251252253254255256257258259260261262263264265266267268269270271272273274275276277278279280281

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fataliti

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew Injuries Crew Fatalities per 10 Years 

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) 

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00252 0.17296 0.0065Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00512 0.13116 0.0046

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000144 0.00155 0.0000

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0.0024Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00447 0.21201 0.0034

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 16 82992 0.066 320 0.60 192 0.1338 0.0020 13013 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0.0056

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 1 5187 0.003 320 0.60 192 0.0068 0.0001 661 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0.0072Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 5187 0.002 320 0.60 192 0.0031 0.0000 305

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 13 67431 0.074 320 0.60 192 0.2649 0.0039 25664 Total, All Scenarios 0.18378 1.21607 0.0300

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 4 20748 0.017 320 0.60 192 0.0593 0.0009 5743Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 4 20748 0.006 320 0.60 192 0.0222 0.0003 2154 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00028 0.00029 0.0000

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 1.73 3 4487 0.001 0.00008 0.00000 13 Intrusion Collisions 0.00132 0.00044 0.0000

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00080 0.00035 0.0000

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0.0000

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Broken Rail 0.00429 0.00142 0.0001

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0.0006Private 0.10 0% 0.100 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0.0003

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 1.73 26 38885 0.014 0.00546 0.00028 1092

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 1.73 5 7478 0.002 0.00087 0.00004 175 Total, All Scenarios 0.02585 0.01643 0.0013Private 0.12 0% 0.120 1.73 5 7478 0.001 0.00035 0.00002 70

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 3 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.20963 1.23251 0.0313

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 300000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 26 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 5 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 5 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.168 0.490 0.007 47540

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.018 0.007 0.000 1350Train Type 0.186 0.50 0.01 48890

Total Passenger + Freight

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds
2/4/2010 (13) Appendix G - IDOT risk model, NE Corridor ATC 85% case, reduced severity v1.xls

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries 

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00474 0.28229 0.01082 12306 72991 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00531 0.29017 0.01107 12549 74769 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00770 0.41740 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00941 0.25179 0.00895 10793 62812 Intrusion Collisions 0.01002 0.25338 0.00900 10801 63137 Intrusion Collisions 0.01541 0.36371 

Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00226 0.00007 79 507 Diamond Collisions 0.00024 0.00203 0.00006 71 455 Diamond Collisions 0.00052 0.00443 

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916 70493 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 

Broken Rail 0.00823 0.40934 0.00658 33729 94404 Broken Rail 0.00876 0.41694 0.00668 33757 95505 Broken Rail 0.01347 0.61921 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0 45798 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.02319 151171 376715 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 

Total, All Scenarios 0.62565 3.28454 0.07099 268427 809842 Total, All Scenarios 0.58894 2.94443 0.06639 233265 726871 Total, All Scenarios 0.55353 3.50760 

0.00000 0.00000 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00080 0.00069 0.00007 202 480 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00168 0.00141 0.00014 400 965 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00232 0.00203 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00201 0.00047 0.00005 60 250 Intrusion Collisions 0.00342 0.00077 0.00008 96 404 Intrusion Collisions 0.00728 0.00174 

Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00053 0.00005 200 411 Diamond Collisions 0.00127 0.00045 0.00004 170 350 Diamond Collisions 0.00284 0.00100 

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810 2215 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 

Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00198 0.00020 3465 4255 Broken Rail 0.01108 0.00314 0.00031 5612 6868 Broken Rail 0.02362 0.00755 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0 6729 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.00121 4717 10730 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 

Total, All Scenarios 0.06108 0.03164 0.00233 8469 18627 Total, All Scenarios 0.09647 0.04731 0.00357 12806 28261 Total, All Scenarios 0.14141 0.08896 

0.68673 3.31617 0.07332 276897 828468 0.68541 2.99175 0.06996 246071 755132 0.69495 3.59657 

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries 

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00178 0.09784 0.00373 4229 25203 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00252 0.13837 

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00333 0.08415 0.00299 3587 20969 Intrusion Collisions 0.00512 0.12079 

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00007 0.00060 0.00002 21 136 Diamond Collisions 0.00014 0.00124 

Overspeed Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275 23412 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00291 0.13847 0.00222 11211 31719 Broken Rail 0.00447 0.20565 

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0 15156 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.00770 50207 125113 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.19561 0.97876 0.02210 77530 241707 Total, All Scenarios 0.18378 1.16445 

Freight Train-Train Collisions Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00030 0.00024 0.00002 71 168 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00028 0.00023 

Intrusion Collisions Intrusion Collisions 0.00071 0.00016 0.00002 20 84 Intrusion Collisions 0.00132 0.00032 

Diamond Collisions Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00013 0.00001 51 104 Diamond Collisions 0.00080 0.00028 Overspeed Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377 461 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 

Broken Rail Broken Rail 0.00231 0.00065 0.00007 1169 1431 Broken Rail 0.00429 0.00137 

Work Zone Violation Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0 1402 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 Grade Crossing Collisions Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.00025 983 2235 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 Total, All Scenarios Total, All Scenarios 0.02016 0.00985 0.00074 2670 5885 Total, All Scenarios 0.02585 0.01614 

0.21577 0.98860 0.02284 80200 247592 0.20963 1.18059 

Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage Financial Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries 

($) Totals ($) Totals 

($) ($) 

Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00474 0.28229 0.01082 12306 72991 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00709 0.38801 0.01480 16777 99972 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.01022 0.55576 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00941 0.25179 0.00895 10793 62812 Intrusion Collisions 0.01335 0.33753 0.01199 14388 84105 Intrusion Collisions 0.02052 0.48451 

Diamond Collisions 0.00026 0.00226 0.00007 79 507 Diamond Collisions 0.00031 0.00263 0.00008 92 590 Diamond Collisions 0.00066 0.00567 

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896 69680 Overspeed 0.00836 0.40995 0.00657 33191 93905 Overspeed 0.01285 0.60883 

Broken Rail 0.00823 0.40934 0.00658 33729 94404 Broken Rail 0.01167 0.55541 0.00891 44968 127224 Broken Rail 0.01794 0.82486 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0 44572 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.15197 0.01525 0 60953 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.22632 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 186625 464876 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.74378 2.07769 0.03089 201378 501828 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.67512 1.96610 

Total, All Scenarios 0.62565 3.28454 0.07099 268427 809842 Total, All Scenarios 0.78455 3.92319 0.08849 310795 968578 Total, All Scenarios 0.73731 4.67205 

Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00080 0.00069 0.00007 202 480 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00198 0.00166 0.00017 471 1133 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00260 0.00226 

Intrusion Collisions 0.00201 0.00047 0.00005 60 250 Intrusion Collisions 0.00413 0.00093 0.00009 116 489 Intrusion Collisions 0.00861 0.00206 

Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00053 0.00005 200 411 Diamond Collisions 0.00165 0.00058 0.00006 221 454 Diamond Collisions 0.00364 0.00128 

Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117 1372 Overspeed 0.00419 0.00122 0.00012 2187 2676 Overspeed 0.00873 0.00288 

Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00198 0.00020 3465 4255 Broken Rail 0.01339 0.00380 0.00038 6781 8299 Broken Rail 0.02791 0.00892 

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0 4078 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.02033 0.00203 0 8130 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.04373 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 3426 7781 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09129 0.02865 0.00147 5700 12965 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.11578 0.04397 

Total, All Scenarios 0.06108 0.03164 0.00233 8469 18627 Total, All Scenarios 0.11663 0.05716 0.00432 15476 34147 Total, All Scenarios 0.16726 0.10510 

0.68673 3.31617 0.07332 276897 828468 0.90118 3.98035 0.09281 326271 1002725 0.90457 4.77716 

Results Summary: Base Case II, Northeast Corridor ATC 85% Preventability with Severity 

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R3a: All Year, Joliet Table R3b: All Year, Bloomington Table R3c: All Year, Springfi

Total Passenger + Freight

Total Passenger + Freight Total Passenger + Freight 

Table R2a: Summer, Joliet (Included in Full Year Table) Table R2b: Summer, Bloomington Table R2c: Summer, Springfi

Table R1a: Full Year, Joliet

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R1b: Rest of Year, Bloomington

Total Passenger + Freight

Table R1c: Rest of Year, Spring

Total Passenger + Freight

There are no seasonal traffic variations on the Joliet Subcorridor. Therefore only one risk calculation is needed for the full year, and there is no separate summer calculation

Results Summary
2/4/2010 (13) Appendix G - IDOT risk model, NE Corridor ATC 85% case, reduced severity v1.xls

Train/System Parameter Value Value Units

Type Train Type

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Sight Distance 2500 ft Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year

Appl'n Time (secs) 13.8 Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95 Probability Passenger 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

Train Weight (lb) 37600000 violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05 Probability Equipped Freight 1.43 1.43 1.43 2.28 1.73 3.16

Brake Force (lb) 779683 PTC Risk Increment in Zone C (PTC Models ONLY) 2 Ratio Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 Potential danger length in Zone C (PTC Models ONLY) 2500 ft

Coefficient B 0 Operating Days 91.0 274.0 91.0 274.0 91.0 274.0

Safety Factor 1.25 Unit Cost Per Casualty Injury 100000 Dollars

Train Control PTC Timeout (secs) 3 Fatality 3000000 Dollars

PTC Latency (secs) 3 Timeout (secs) 0 0 0

ACS Response (secs) 8 Normal Operating Mode 95.00 95.00 95.00

Timeout Mode 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fallback Mode 5.00 5.00 5.00

Seats 320 320 320

Occupancy Factor 0.6 0.6 0.6

15

Segment Start (milepost) End (milepost) Type Variant Passenger Segment Start (MP) End (MP) Type Variant 

Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops Number Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name 

(Consq*) (Other) (Consq*) (Other) 

1.0 62.60 64.80 CP Adjacent (M) 2.20 11616 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 14.0 88.35 90.55 Plain 2.20 11616 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 1 Bunge 

2.0 64.80 66.55 Plain 1.75 9240 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 15.0 90.55 92.47 CP Adjacent (M) 1.92 10137.6 49.0 50.0 50 40 60 60 79 1 Donnley 

3.0 66.55 68.23 Plain 1.68 8870.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 16.0 92.47 94.97 Siding (M) Pontiac (Sig'd) 2.50 13200 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 

4.0 68.23 70.17 CP Adjacent (M) 1.94 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 17.0 94.97 96.81 CP Adjacent (M) 1.84 9715.2 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 Ocoya 

5.0 70.17 72.80 Siding (M) Dwight (sig'd) 2.63 13886.4 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 0 18.0 96.81 100.28 Plain 3.47 18321.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 

6.0 72.80 72.80 Diamond 0.00 0 40.0 40.0 40 40 40 40 40 0 19.0 100.28 102.25 CP Adjacent (M) 1.97 10401.6 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 0 

7.0 72.80 74.94 CP Adjacent (M) 2.14 11299.2 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 0 20.0 102.25 102.25 Diamond 0.00 0 40.0 40.0 40 40 40 40 40 0 

8.0 74.94 77.27 Plain 2.33 12302.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 21.0 102.25 104.60 CP Adjacent (M) 2.35 12408 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 60 79 0 

9.0 77.27 80.13 Plain 2.86 15100.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 22.0 104.60 106.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.83 9662.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 

10.0 80.13 81.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.86 9820.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 23.0 106.43 108.83 Siding (M) Ballard (Sig'd) 2.40 12672 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 

11.0 81.99 84.65 Siding (M) Odell (Sig'd) 2.66 14044.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 24.0 108.83 111.36 CP Adjacent (M) 2.53 13358.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 

12.0 84.65 86.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.78 9398.4 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 25.0 111.36 113.30 Plain 1.94 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 

13.0 86.43 88.35 Plain 1.92 10137.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 26.0 113.30 116.36 Plain 3.06 16156.8 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 

27.0 116.36 118.83 Plain 2.47 13041.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 1 Towanda 

28.0 118.83 121.40 CP Adjacent (M) 2.57 13569.6 60.0 79.0 110 50 79 79 105 0 

29.0 121.40 123.57 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 2.17 11457.6 60.0 79.0 110 40 60 79 79 1 Bloomington 

30.0 123.57 124.38 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.81 4276.8 25.0 40.0 40 25 40 40 40 1 Bloomington 

31.0 124.38 124.86 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.48 2534.4 25.0 40.0 40 25 40 40 40 1 Bloomington 

Check Total 25.8 Check Total 36.5 

Train Type Representative Type of Number Train Type Representative Type of Number Train Type Representative Type of Number Train Type Representative Type of 

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds Speed (mph) Grade-crossing

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities 

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 1 Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 7 7 Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50,000

Public_other 0 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.300

Private 0 0 Private Private Private 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 8 0 0 60 Public_gates_lights 16 60 Public_gates_lights 14 60 Public_gates_lights 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113,000

Public_other 0 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.500

Private 0 0 Private 1 Private Private 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 20 8 0 79 Public_gates_lights 16 16 79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 79 Public_gates_lights 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196,000

Public_other 0 0 Public_other 1 Public_other 5 1 Public_other 0.650

Private 1 0 Private 6 1 Private 5 1 Private 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 20 0 105 Public_gates_lights 16 105 Public_gates_lights 13 105 Public_gates_lights 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346,000

Public_other 0 0 Public_other 1 Public_other 4 Public_other 0.800

Private 0 1 Private 6 Private 4 Private 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0 0 Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 7 Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.150 0.12 0.005 

Public_other 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.120

Private 0 Private Private Private 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 8 1 40 Public_gates_lights 16 40 Public_gates_lights 40 Public_gates_lights 0.300 0.25 0.013 

Public_other 0 Public_other Public_other Public_other 0.250

Private 0 Private 1 Private Private 0.100

50 Public_gates_lights 20 0 50 Public_gates_lights 16 50 Public_gates_lights 26 50 Public_gates_lights 0.360 0.39 0.02 

Public_other 0 Public_other 1 Public_other 5 Public_other 0.300

Private 1 Private 6 Private 5 Private 0.120

Check Totals 29 29 29 Check Totals 47 47 47 Check Totals 39 39 39

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.066 0.002 401600 0.111 0.0039 913600 0.192 0.0068 1580800 0.340 0.0128 2796000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.027 0.001 200800 0.045 0.0021 456800 0.078 0.0036 790400 0.137 0.0064 1397600

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.027 0.001 200800 0.045 0.0021 456800 0.078 0.0036 790400 0.137 0.0064 1397600

Pass car hit by Loco 0.133 0.004 804000 0.220 0.0095 1827200 0.381 0.0165 3160800 0.673 0.0256 5591200

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.009 0.000 81360 0.022 0.0008 185040 0.039 0.0014 320400 0.069 0.0024 565920

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.025 0.001 216960 0.060 0.0021 493440 0.104 0.0036 853440 0.183 0.0065 1510080

Overspeed 0.044 0.000 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.043 0.000 646990 0.136 0.0018 1455000 0.204 0.0033 2522000 0.272 0.0044 4456180

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.008 0 0.125 0.013 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.344 0.0344 84000 0.88 0.088 216000 1.36 0.136 337600

Frt Loco hits Car 0.28 0.028 70400 0.72 0.072 180000 1.12 0.112 281600Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 35200 0 0 89600 0 0 140800

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollouFrt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (othe Frt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Equip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Segment Type Segment Type

Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Head-on Rear/Side Head-on R/S P into F R/S F into P Head-on Rear/Side

Siding - Monitored 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030 Siding - Monitored 50% 50% 50% 40% 10% 50% 50%

Siding - Unmonitored 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 Siding - Unmonitored 50% 50% 50% 40% 10% 50% 50%

CP-Adjacent, Monitored 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 CP-Adjacent, Monitored 90% 10% 80% 15% 5% 75% 25%CP-Adjacent, Unmonitored 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.060 CP-Adjacent, Unmonitored 90% 10% 80% 15% 5% 75% 25%

Plain Track 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 Plain Track 80% 20% 70% 25% 5% 50% 50%

Accident Type Units

Passenger Freight Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year Summer Rest of Year

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Per million train-miles 0.0086 0.0144 Passenger-Passenger 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.60 0.80 0.62Intrusion Collision (other)) Per million train-miles 0.0144 0.0086 Passenger - Equip Freight 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.32 0.20 0.30

Overspeed Per million train-miles 0.0110 0.0160 Passenger - Unequip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Broken Rail Per million train-miles 0.0167 0.0556 Equip Freight - Equip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.08Work Zone Violation Per million train-miles Equip Freight - Unequip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Diamonds Per million diamond passes 0.1000 0.1000 Unequip _Freight - Unequip Freight 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Checking 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Accident Type Preventability

Passenger Freight Passenger Freight Both TBE Pass-Pass 0.85

Intrusion Collision (rollout) 0.43 0.43 0.00 0.00 Pass-TBE Freight 0.85

Intrusion Collision (other)) 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.85Overspeed 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.90Broken Rail 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00Work Zone Violation 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.90 One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.85

Grade Crossings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 0.85

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 0.85TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.85

Tables IN-7: Base Consequences Look-up Table (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ 40 mph 60 mph 79 mph 105 mph

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.083 0.0020 502000 0.139 0.0049 1142000 0.240 0.0085 1976000 0.425 0.0160 3495000 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.034 0.0010 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.034 0.0010 251000 0.056 0.0026 571000 0.097 0.0045 988000 0.171 0.0080 1747000 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80

Pass car hit by Loco 0.166 0.0050 1005000 0.275 0.0119 2284000 0.476 0.0206 3951000 0.841 0.0320 6989000 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.013 0.0005 113000 0.031 0.0011 257000 0.054 0.0019 445000 0.096 0.0034 786000 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.026 0.0009 226000 0.063 0.0022 514000 0.108 0.0038 889000 0.191 0.0068 1573000 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Table IN-7A: Consequence Adjustment Factors

Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 60 mph Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph Consequence Adjustment Factors by Representative Speed

Crossing Collision Consequences

Table IN-1b: Miscellaneous Inputs

Joliet Sub-Corridor

Table IN-2b: Segment Definitions: Bloomington Sub-Corridor: MP 88.3 (Bunge) - MP 124.9 (Bloomington)

Length

Bloomington Sub-Corridor

Table IN-3a: Crossing and Diamond Data, Joliet Sub-Corridor Table IN-3b: Crossing Data, Bloomington Sub-Corridor Table IN-3c: Crossing Data, Springfield Sub-Corridor Table IN-3d: Grade Crossings: Collision Frequency and Consequences

See Consequence Table

Number Crossings

Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per ac

Accident Frequency

Per Million Crossing Passes

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph

Number Crossings

Table IN-4: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 60 mph

Representative Speed 50 mphRepresentative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph) Industry Siding 

Springfield Sub-Corridor

Percent Train-Miles in

Passenger Train Occupancy

Table IN-1a: Braking Formula Inputs

Table IN-2a: Segment Definitions: Joliet Sub-Corridor: MP 62.7 (Mazonia) - MP 88.3 (Bunge)

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph) Industry Siding 

Parameter

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Average One-Way Trips/Day

Table IN-1c:Traffic and Related Data

Head-on and Rear/Side Train-Train Collision Distributions by Segment Type

Table IN-5b: Collision Distributions Between Head-on and Rear/Side by trains Involved and Segment type

Bloomington Sub-Corridor Springfield Sub-Corridor

Train-Train Collision Distributions by Train Types

Train-Train Collision Frequency by Segment Type, Sub Corridor and Season - (Collision Frequency in Collisions per Million Train Miles)

Table IN-5a: Reference Case Collision Accident Frequencies by Sub-Corridor and Season

All Other Accident Frequencies

Frequencies Joliet Sub-Corridor

Table IN-5c: Reference Case Frequencies for Other Accident Types Table IN-5d: Reference Case Collision Distributions by Sub-Corridor and Train Type

Joliet Sub-Corridor Bloomington Sub-Corridor Springfield Sub-Corridor Passenger to Passenger

Model Inputs: Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC 85% Preventability with Severity Reduction

Equipped Train Preventability Values

Number Crossings

Prev'ly Factors - PTC Timeout

Table IN-6a: Preventability for Other Accident Types

Preventability Factors - ATC Collision Type

Passenger to Freight Freight to Freight

Collision Types Note: Since all trains are equipped in Cab Signal and 

ATC cases, there are no collisions invoilving unequipped trains.

Casualties and damage in Table IN-4 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations w hich are per million train-miles

PTC Timeout and Latency values in Table IN-1a used only for PTC calculations.

Prev'ly Factors -PTC Timeout only used w ith PTC cases.

Inputs
2/4/2010 (13) Appendix G - IDOT risk model, NE Corridor ATC 85% case, reduced severity v1.xls

Broken Rail 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ 25 mph 40 mph 50 mph

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.43 0.043 105000 1.1 0.11 270000 1.7 0.17 422000 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80

Frt Loco hits Car 0.35 0.035 88000 0.9 0.09 225000 1.4 0.14 352000 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 44000 0 0 112000 0 0 176000 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollouFrt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (othe Frt Loco hits Car 0.088 0.009 11000 0.225 0.023 28000 0.35 0.035 44000 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.066 0.0016 401600 0.111 0.0039 913600 0.192 0.0068 1580800 0.340 0.0128 2796000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.027 0.0008 200800 0.045 0.0021 456800 0.078 0.0036 790400 0.137 0.0064 1397600

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.027 0.0008 200800 0.045 0.0021 456800 0.078 0.0036 790400 0.137 0.0064 1397600

Pass car hit by Loco 0.133 0.0040 804000 0.220 0.0095 1827200 0.381 0.0165 3160800 0.673 0.0256 5591200

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.009 0.0004 81360 0.022 0.0008 185040 0.039 0.0014 320400 0.069 0.0024 565920

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.025 0.0009 216960 0.060 0.0021 493440 0.104 0.0036 853440 0.183 0.0065 1510080

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.140 0.0019 1500000 0.210 0.0034 2600000 0.280 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.043 0.0004 646990 0.136 0.0018 1455000 0.204 0.0033 2522000 0.272 0.0044 4456180

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.344 0.0344 84000 0.88 0.088 216000 1.36 0.136 337600

Frt Loco hits Car 0.28 0.028 70400 0.72 0.072 180000 1.12 0.112 281600

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 35200 0 0 89600 0 0 140800

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollouFrt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (othe Frt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240

Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Broken Rail, Equip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 50 mph

Tables IN-8: Adjusted Consequences Look-up Table (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 60 mph Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph Representative Speed 50 mph Consequence Adjustment Factors by Representative Speed

Casualties and damage in Table IN-7 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations w hich are per million train-milesCasualties and damage in Table IN-8 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations w hich are per million train-miles

Inputs
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 1671 1671 0 0.668 58 0 1275 0 2946 0 2946

Appl'n Time (secs) 13.8 40 3686 1619 2068 0.668 14 77 308 1692 1927 3760 5686Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 5452 3384 2068 0.668 36 77 791 1692 4176 3760 7935Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 1452 1452 0 1.293 48 0 1065 0 2517 0 2517

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 3177 3177 0 1.293 71 0 1565 0 4742 0 4742

Coefficient B 0 79 5433 3035 2398 1.293 25 68 541 1499 3576 3896 7472Safety Factor 1.25 105 9493 7096 2398 1.293 54 68 1190 1499 8286 3896 12182

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 3 Frt Red'd Consq 35 1125 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response (sec 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start End Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freig

Number (milepost) (milepost) Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops 

(Consq*) (Other)

1.0 62.6 64.8 CP Adjacent (M) 2.2 11616 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3330 3681 4144 0 0 0 566 0 0 462 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

2.0 64.8 66.6 Plain 1.8 9240 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 954 1168 1768 0 0 0 2942 0 0 462 0000000

3.0 66.6 68.2 Plain 1.7 8870.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 585 799 1399 0 0 0 3311 0 0 462 0000000

4.0 68.2 70.2 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 10243.2 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1958 2172 2772 0 0 0 1939 0 0 462 00000005.0 70.2 72.8 Siding (M) Dwight (sig'd) 2.6 13886.4 60 79 110 40 60 60 79 0 1927 4742 3576 0 0 3896 11960 9145 6415 0000000000000

6.0 72.8 72.8 Diamond 0.0 0 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 0 

7.0 72.8 74.9 CP Adjacent (M) 2.1 11299.2 60 79 110 40 60 60 79 0 1927 4742 3576 0 0 3896 9373 6558 3828 0000000000000

8.0 74.9 77.3 Plain 2.3 12302.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 4231 4831 121 0000000000000

9.0 77.3 80.1 Plain 2.9 15100.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 7029 7629 2919 0000000000000

10.0 80.1 82.0 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 9820.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1535 1749 2349 0 0 0 2361 0 0 462 0000000

11.0 82.0 84.7 Siding (M) Odell (Sig'd) 2.7 14044.8 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5973 6573 1863 0000000000000

12.0 84.7 86.4 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9398.4 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1113 1327 1927 0 0 0 2783 0 0 462 0000000

13.0 86.4 88.4 Plain 1.9 10137.6 60 79 110 50 79 79 105 0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1852 2066 2666 0 0 0 2044 0 0 462 0000000

Check Total 25.8Train Type Representative 

Speed

(mph)

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 2.6 13886.450 2.7 14044.8

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 2.6 13886.4 2.6 13886.4 0.0 079 2.7 14044.8 2.7 14044.8 2.6 13886.4

105 0.0 0 2.7 14044.8

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 0.0 0

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 0.0 0

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 2.1 11299.250 7.8 41078.4

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 2.1 11299.2 2.1 11299.2 0.0 079 7.8 41078.4 7.8 41078.4 2.1 11299.2

105 0.0 0 7.8 41078.4

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 0.0 0

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 0.0 0

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 0

50 10.5 55651.2

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 10.5 55651.2 10.5 55651.2 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 10.5 55651.2

Check Total 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 27931.2Number Siding (M) Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 6102 8317 11861 3896 3896 7792 17933 15718 8278

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.218 0.298 0.425 0.139 0.139 0.279 0.642 0.563 0.296

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.208 0.283 0.403 0.133 0.133 0.265 0.710 0.635 0.382 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 1

Number Siding (M) Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 0 00000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (M) Segments (ft) 52377.6Number CP Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 18629 19044 36718 15448 15584 11832 18301 17749 3828

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.356 0.364 0.701 0.295 0.298 0.226 0.349 0.339 0.073HS Pass 0 1473 1027

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.338 0.345 0.666 0.280 0.283 0.274 0.432 0.422 0.111 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (U) Segments (ft) 1Number CP Adjacent Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 0 00000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Plain Track Segments (ft) 55651.2Number CP Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Worksheet 1-JN: IDOT Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability with Severity Reduction, Jolie

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance (ft) Total Zone Lengths (ft0

Sight Distance (ft)

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Lengths in Feet)

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Zone C within Sight Distance

O

Zon

Overlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 TotalsZone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (including free running in TO) (ft)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prevention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop 

Full Prevention

Overlap of Stopping Distance Overlap of Zone A1 Into 

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Sub-Corridor 1: MP 62.7 (Mazonia) - MP 88.3 (Bunge)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Braking Duration (secs)

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Freight

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Plain Track

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Representative Speed (mph) Posted Speed (mph) Industry Siding 

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
160

161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN 

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 18629 19044 36718 000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.335 0.342 0.660 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 1409 1091

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.318 0.325 0.627 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.100 0.100 0.044 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 25185.6Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 3238 6354 6070 4135 0 4795 17813 18832 14320

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.129 0.252 0.241 0.164 0.000 0.190 0.707 0.748 0.569HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.122 0.240 0.229 0.156 0.000 0.181 0.772 0.810 0.640

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Lengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.71 0.50 0.50 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.5 0.5 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.70 0.30 0.497 

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.29 0.50 0.50 0.145 0 0.145 0 0.5 0.5 0.145 0 0.145 0 0.7 0.3 0.203 0 0.087 0 0.7 0.3 0.203 0 0.087 0 0.40 0.60 0.116 

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 100000100000100000100000 1.00 0.00 0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.771 0 0.229 0 1 0.771 0 0.229 0 1 0.613 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.208 0.283 0.403 0.133 0.133 0.265 0.710 0.635 0.382

Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 0.338 0.345 0.666 0.280 0.283 0.274 0.432 0.422 0.111CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 0.318 0.325 0.627 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.100 0.100 0.044Diamonds 0.122 0.240 0.229 0.156 0.000 0.181 0.772 0.810 0.640

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

Pass-TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 85% 85% 38% 85% 10% 85% 11% 85% 10% 85% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 85% 85% 38% 85% 10% 85% 11% 85% 10% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 85% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 85% 85% 71% 85% 0% 85% 10% 85% 0% 85% 43% 85% 0% 85% 10% 85% 0% 85% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0032 0.0032 0.0043 0.0043 0.0085 0.0021 0.0102 0.0026 0.0009 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.0015 0.0007 0.0018 0.0008 0.0001 TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0038 0.0000 0.0038 0.0000 0.0051 0.0000 0.0051 0.0000 0.0100 0.0000 0.0028 0.0000 0.0121 0.0000 0.0033 0.0000 0.0010 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0038 0.0038 0.0000 0.0000 0.0051 0.0051 0.0000 0.0000 0.0100 0.0100 0.0000 0.0000 0.0121 0.0121 0.0000 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0016 0.0016 0.0021 0.0021 0.0011 0.0011 0.0013 0.0013 0.0002 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0007 0.0007 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0006 0.0000 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0017 0.0017 0.0000 0.0000 0.0023 0.0023 0.0000 0.0000 0.0012 0.0012 0.0000 0.0000 0.0015 0.0015 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 

Total 0.0077 0.0038 0.0000 0.0038 0.0000 0.0103 0.0051 0.0000 0.0051 0.0000 0.0128 0.0100 0.0000 0.0028 0.0000 0.0154 0.0121 0.0000 0.0033 0.0000 0.0015 0.0010 

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.0015 0.0007 0.0018 0.0008 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0007 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0009 0.0000 0.0009 0.0000 0.0015 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0018 0.0000 0.0008 0.0000 0.0001 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0007 0.0007 0.0000 0.0009 0.0009 0.0000 0.0015 0.0015 0.0000 0.0018 0.0018 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0001 0.00013 0.00000 0.0002 0.00017 0.00000 0.0002 0.00016 0.00000 0.0002 0.00020 0.00000 0.0000 

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0005 0.00052 0.00000 0.0007 0.00070 0.00000 0.0005 0.00049 0.00000 0.0006 0.00059 0.00000 0.0001 

Total 0.0013 0.0007 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0017 0.0009 0.0000 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 0.0022 0.0015 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0026 0.0018 0.0000 0.0008 0.0000 0.0003 0.0001 

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0090 0.0800 0.0120 0.1000 0.0150 0.1200 0.0180 0.0018

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car b

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head O

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head O

Collision Distribution Head O

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head O

Worksheet 2 - J,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability with Severity Reduction, Joliet Sub-corrid

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Like Tra

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision R

Collision Type Like Trains

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.0664 0.0016 401600 0.1112 0.00392 913600 0.192 0.0068 1580800 0.34 0.0128 2796000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.0272 0.0008 200800 0.0448 0.00208 456800 0.0776 0.0036 790400 0.1368 0.0064 1397600Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.0272 0.0008 200800 0.0448 0.00208 456800 0.0776 0.0036 790400 0.1368 0.0064 1397600Pass car hit by Loco 0.1328 0.004 804000 0.22 0.00952 1827200 0.3808 0.01648 3160800 0.6728 0.0256 5591200

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.00936 0.00036 81360 0.02232 0.000792 185040 0.03888 0.001368 320400 0.06912 0.002448 565920Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.02496 0.000864 216960 0.06048 0.002112 493440 0.10368 0.003648 853440 0.18336 0.006528 1510080Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.04268 0.000388 646990 0.1358 0.0018042 1455000 0.2037 0.0032786 2522000 0.2716 0.004365 4456180

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.344 0.0344 84000 0.88 0.088 216000 1.36 0.136 337600

Frt Loco hits Car 0.28 0.028 70400 0.72 0.072 180000 1.12 0.112 281600Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 35200 0 0 89600 0 0 140800

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300

Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 8 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500

Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 20 8 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.650

Private 1 0 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 20 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.800

Private 0 1 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120

Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 8 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj (M

Private 0 0.100 

50 Public_gates_lights 20 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0038 0.0051 0.0100 

Public_other 0 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0016 0.0021 0.0011 

Private 1 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0005 0.0007 0.0005 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0017 0.0023 0.0012 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0007 0.0009 0.0015 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0005 0.0007 0.0005 

Segment Start End Type Length

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass-Cons HS Pass Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

1.0 62.60 64.80 CP Adjacent (M) 2.20 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 

2.0 64.80 66.55 Plain 1.75 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0.003.0 66.55 68.23 Plain 1.68 50 79 79 105 40 2.63 Pass Loco Hits Loco 

4.0 68.23 70.17 CP Adjacent (M) 1.94 50 79 79 105 50 2.66 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 

5.0 70.17 72.80 Siding (M) 2.63 40 60 60 79 Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 

6.0 72.80 72.80 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 60 2.63 2.63 0.00 Pass Car Hit by Loco 

7.0 72.80 74.94 CP Adjacent (M) 2.14 40 60 60 79 79 2.66 2.66 2.63

8.0 74.94 77.27 Plain 2.33 50 79 79 105 105 0.00 0.00 2.66 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0010 0.0007

9.0 77.27 80.13 Plain 2.86 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0.00 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001

10.0 80.13 81.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.86 50 79 79 105 40 0.00 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0005 0.0003

11.0 81.99 84.65 Siding (M) 2.66 50 79 79 105 50 0.00

12.0 84.65 86.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.78 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

13.0 86.43 88.35 Plain 1.92 50 79 79 105 60 0.00 0.00 0.00

79 0.00 0.00 0.00

105 0.00 0.00 0.00

Freight 25 0.00

40 2.1450 7.78

Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

Length Check -64.8 25.8 60 2.14 2.14 0.00

79 7.78 7.78 2.14

105 0.00 0.00 7.78

Freight 25 0.00

40 0.0050 0.00

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 0.00 0.00 0.00

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 0.00 0.00 0.00

Equipped Freight 1.43 1.43 105 0.00 0.00 0.00

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0.00

40 0.00

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 10.54

Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 0.00 0.00 0.0079 10.54 10.54 0.00

Timeout (secs) 0 105 0.00 0.00 10.54

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 0.00

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 4.77

Fallback Mode 5 50 20.98

Passenger 40 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 4.77 4.77 0.0079 20.98 20.98 4.77

Seats 320 105 0.00 0.00 20.98

Occupancy Factor 0.6

Checking Total 25.75 25.75 25.75 25.75

Representative Speed 50 mph

Freight 

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequenciess 

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths (miles)

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Worksheet 3 - J,N,R: - Risk Calculations - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability with Severity Reduction, Joliet Subcorridor, Rest of Yea

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and Co

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mphRepresentative Speed 40 mph

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones) Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation - 

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

CP Adjacent (mon)

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles
119

120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227228229230231232233234235236237238239

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisions 

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill. t-m) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (millions)

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.000000 Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.008492 0.000219 

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.001698 0.000044 

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 20805 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000263 

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.000000 Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.008492 0.000000 

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001698 0.000000 

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 20805 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 20805 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.000000 

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00663 Incl 0.00663 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00081 320 0.6 192 0.030 0.0011 1287 0 0.000000 0.000000 

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00136 Incl 0.00136 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00017 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 132 0 0.000000 0.000000 

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00051 Incl 0.00051 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00006 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0000 49 0 0.008492 0.000000 

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00150 Incl 0.00150 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00018 320 0.6 192 0.014 0.0006 584 0 0.001698 0.000000 

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.00049 320 0.6 192 0.004 0.0001 156

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.00126 320 0.6 192 0.025 0.0009 1073

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.00109 320 0.6 192 0.044 0.0007 2838

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.00152 320 0.6 192 0.060 0.0010 3845

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 20805 4.77 99240 0.016 0.0016 0

0.00559 0.19553 0.00611 9965 0.000000 

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00471 Incl 0.00471 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00255 320 0.6 192 0.166 0.0063 7124 0 0.000000 0.000000 

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00069 Incl 0.00069 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00037 320 0.6 192 0.010 0.0005 524 0 0.000000 0.000000 

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00031 Incl 0.00031 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00017 320 0.6 192 0.004 0.0002 237 0 0.008492 0.000000 

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00078 Incl 0.00078 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00042 320 0.6 192 0.055 0.0021 2369 0 0.001698 0.000000 

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.00214 320 0.6 192 0.028 0.0010 1211

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.00553 320 0.6 192 0.195 0.0069 8353

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.00480 320 0.6 192 0.258 0.0041 22058

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.00671 320 0.6 192 0.350 0.0056 29884

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 20805 20.98 436489 0.095 0.0095 0

Total 0.02269 1.16146 0.03624 71758 0.000000 

Overall Totals 0.02828 1.35698 0.04235 81723 0.000263 

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00474 0.28229 0.01082 12306

Intrusion Collisions 0.00941 0.25179 0.00895 10793

Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 24896

Broken Rail 0.00823 0.40934 0.00658 33729

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisions 

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per mill t-m) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (millions)

0 0.000000 0.000000 

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.028479 0.000000 

Frt Loco hits Car 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.029273 0.000000 

Frt car hit by Loco 0 Incl 0.00000 7.43 25764 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 4959 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.000000 

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0010 Incl 0.00104 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00013 0.00011 0.000011 $28 1 0.000000 0.000000 

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0001 Incl 0.00015 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00002 0.00001 0.000001 $3 1 0.028479 0.000734 Frt car hit by Loco 0.0005 Incl 0.00051 7.43 25764 4.77 122892 0.00006 0.00000 0.000000 $6 1 0.029273 0.000754 

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.43 4959 4.77 23652 0.00019 0.00003 0.000003 $4Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.43 4959 4.77 23652 0.00018 0.00003 0.000003 $4Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 4.77 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 4.77 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 4959 4.77 23652 0.00038 0.00005 0.000005 $142Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 4.77 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.43 4959 4.77 23652 0.00121 0.00017 0.000017 $440Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 4.77 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 4959 4.77 23652 0.00156 0.000156 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 4.77 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00217 0.0020 0.00020 $626 0.001488 

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0007 Incl 0.00070 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00038 0.00051 0.000051 $128 0 0.000000 0.000000 

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0001 Incl 0.00009 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00005 0.00005 0.000005 $14 0 0.028479 0.000000 Frt car hit by Loco 0.0003 Incl 0.00031 7.43 25764 20.98 540519 0.00017 0.00000 0.000000 $24 0 0.029273 0.000000 

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.43 4959 20.98 104030 0.00085 0.00022 0.000022 $27Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.43 4959 20.98 104030 0.00079 0.00020 0.000020 $25Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 20.98 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 20.98 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 4959 20.98 104030 0.00166 0.00058 0.000058 $975Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 20.98 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.43 4959 20.98 104030 0.00532 0.00181 0.000181 $3,025Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 20.98 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 4959 20.98 104030 0.00863 0.000863 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 20.98 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00922 0.0120 0.00120 $4,217 0.000000 

Overall Totals 0.01139 0.0140 0.0014 $4,843 0.001488 

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00080 0.00069 0.00007 202

Intrusion Collisions 0.00201 0.00047 0.00005 60Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00053 0.00005 200Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 1117Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00198 0.00020 3465Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 0Grade Crossing Collisions

Table 3.6b: Risk Calculation 

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)
240

241242243244245246247248249250251252253254255256257258259260261262263264265266267268269270271272273274275276277278279280281

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fatalities 

Speed Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew Injuries Crew Fatalities per 10 Years 

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) 

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00474 0.28229 0.01082 Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00941 0.25179 0.00895 

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000263 0.00226 0.00007 

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00589 0.30214 0.00486 Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00823 0.40934 0.00658 

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 8 166440 0.133 320 0.60 192 0.2684 0.0040 26098 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11143 0.01114 

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.59710 1.92530 0.02857 Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 20 416100 0.458 320 0.60 192 1.6346 0.0243 158368 Total, All Scenarios 0.62565 3.28454 0.07099 

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 20805 0.006 320 0.60 192 0.0223 0.0003 2160 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00080 0.00069 0.00007 

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00201 0.00047 0.00005 

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00149 0.00053 0.00005 

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00204 0.00064 0.00006 

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 1.43 8 39668.2 0.012 0.00298 0.00015 595 Broken Rail 0.00653 0.00198 0.00020 

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01020 0.00102 Private 0.10 0% 0.100 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.04820 0.01713 0.00088 

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 1.43 20 99170.5 0.036 0.01392 0.00071 2785

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Total, All Scenarios 0.06108 0.03164 0.00233 Private 0.12 0% 0.120 1.43 1 4958.525 0.001 0.00023 0.00001 46

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.68673 3.31617 0.07332 

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 8 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 3000000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 20 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.597 1.925 0.029 186625

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.048 0.017 0.001 3426Train Type 0.645 1.94 0.03 190051

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total Passenger + Freight

Total - Passenger
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 1671 1671 0 0.668 58 0 1275 0 2946 0 2946

Appl'n Time (sec) 13.8 40 3686 1619 2068 0.668 14 77 308 1692 1927 3760 5686Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 5452 3384 2068 0.668 36 77 791 1692 4176 3760 7935Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 1452 1452 0 1.293 48 0 1065 0 2517 0 2517

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 3177 3177 0 1.293 71 0 1565 0 4742 0 4742

Coefficient B 0 79 5433 3035 2398 1.293 25 68 541 1499 3576 3896 7472Safety Factor 1.25 105 9493 7096 2398 1.293 54 68 1190 1499 8286 3896 12182

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 3 Frt Red'd Consq 35 1125 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response (sec 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start End Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freig

Number (milepost (milepost) Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops 

(Consq*) (Other)

14.0 88.4 90.6 Plain 2.2 11616 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Bunge 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3330 3681 4144 0 0 0 566 0 0 462 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

15.0 90.6 92.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.9 10137.6 49.0 50.0 50.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 1.0 Donnley 1927 4742 3576 0 0 3896 8211 5396 2666 000000000000016.0 92.5 95.0 Siding (M) Pontiac (Sig'd) 2.5 13200 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 Pontiac 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5128 5728 1018 000000000000017.0 95.0 96.8 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9715.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 Ocoya 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1430 1644 2244 0 0 0 2467 0 0 462 0000000

18.0 96.8 100.3 Plain 3.5 18321.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 10250 10850 6140 0000000000000

19.0 100.3 102.3 CP Adjacent (M) 2.0 10401.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 0.0 1927 4742 3576 3760 0 3896 4715 5660 2930 0000000000000

20.0 102.3 102.3 Diamond 0.0 0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 0.0 

21.0 102.3 104.6 CP Adjacent (M) 2.3 12408 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 0.0 1927 4742 3576 0 0 3896 10481 7666 4936 0000000000000

22.0 104.6 106.4 CP Adjacent (M) 1.8 9662.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1377 1591 2191 0 0 0 2519 0 0 462 0000000

23.0 106.4 108.8 Siding (M) Ballard (Sig'd) 2.4 12672 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 4600 5200 490 000000000000024.0 108.8 111.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.5 13358.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5287 5887 1177 0000000000000

25.0 111.4 113.3 Plain 1.9 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 1958 2172 2772 0 0 0 1939 0 0 462 0000000

26.0 113.3 116.4 Plain 3.1 16156.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 8085 8685 3975 0000000000000

27.0 116.4 118.8 Plain 2.5 13041.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Towanda 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3896 5106 5570 860 0000000000000

28.0 118.8 121.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.6 13569.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 0.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3896 5634 6098 1388 0000000000000

29.0 121.4 123.6 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 2.2 11457.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 40.0 60.0 79.0 79.0 1.0 Bloomington 1927 4742 3576 3760 0 3896 5771 6716 3986 0000000000000

30.0 123.6 124.4 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.8 4276.8 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 1.0 Bloomington Bloomingtom 2946 2517 2517 0 0 0 1331 1760 1760 000000000000031.0 124.4 124.9 Siding (M) Bloomington Yard 0.5 2534.4 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 1.0 Bloomington 2534 2517 2517 0 0 0 017 17 4110 01100 04110 04110 0 0 

Check Total 36.5Train Type Representative 

Speed

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 1.29 6811

40 2.17 1145850 4.90 25872

Passenger 40 1.29 6811 1.29 6811 1.29 6811

60 2.17 11458 0.00 0 0.00 079 4.90 25872 7.07 37330 2.17 11458

105 0.00 0 4.90 25872

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 0.00 0

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 079 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 0.00 0

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 6.24 3294750 8.77 46306

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 6.24 32947 6.24 32947 0.00 079 8.77 46306 8.77 46306 6.24 32947

105 0.00 0 8.77 46306

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 0.00 0

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 079 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 0.00 0

Freight 25 0.00 0

40 0.00 050 13.14 69379

Passenger 40 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0

60 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 079 13.14 69379 13.14 69379 0.00 0

105 0.00 0 13.14 69379

Check Total 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 44140.8Number Siding (M) Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 82 0 2418 15758 16927 25181 11552 7792 11688 16831 19422 7272

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.357 0.383 0.570 0.262 0.177 0.265 0.381 0.440 0.165

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.342 0.364 0.542 0.249 0.168 0.252 0.459 0.518 0.257 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 1

Number Siding (M) Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 0 00000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (M) Segments (ft) 79252.8Number CP Adjacent Segments 7 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft0 Freight 0 0 2500 22482 28527 43869 19208 15584 22287 37563 35142 13097

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.284 0.360 0.554 0.242 0.197 0.281 0.474 0.443 0.165HS Pass 0 710 1790

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.269 0.342 0.526 0.230 0.187 0.296 0.550 0.521 0.229 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (U) Segments (ft) 1Number CP Adjacent Segments 0.001 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 0 00000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Plain Track Segments (ft) 69379.2Number CP Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Industry Siding 

Freight

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Plain Track

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Posted Speed (mph) Representative Speed (mph)

Braking Duration (secs)

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Overlap of Stopping Distance Overlap of Zone A1 Into 

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Bloomington Sub-Corridor: MP 88.4 (Bunge) - MP 124.9 (Bloomington)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (including free running in TO) (ft)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prevention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop 

Full Prevention

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 TotalsZone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone C within Sight Distance

O

Zon

Overlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Lengths in Feet

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Worksheet 1-B,N: IDOT Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability with Severity Reduction, Bloomin

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance (ft) Total Zone Lengths (ft)

Sight Distance (ft)

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
160

161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN 

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 22482 28527 43869 000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.324 0.411 0.632 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 501 1999

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.308 0.391 0.601 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.100 0.100 0.080 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 22809.6Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 3238 6354 6070 4135 0 4795 15437 16456 11944

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.142 0.279 0.266 0.181 0.000 0.210 0.677 0.721 0.524HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.135 0.265 0.253 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.743 0.785 0.597

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Lengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.5 0.5 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.8 0.2 0.48 0 0.12 0 0.8 0.2 0.48 0 0.12 0 0.70 0.30 0.42 

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.32 0.50 0.50 0.16 0 0.16 0 0.5 0.5 0.16 0 0.16 0 0.7 0.3 0.224 0 0.096 0 0.7 0.3 0.224 0 0.096 0 0.40 0.60 0.128 

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.08 0.50 0.50 0.04 0 0.04 0 0.5 0.5 0.04 0 0.04 0 0.7 0.3 0.056 0 0.024 0 0.7 0.3 0.056 0 0.024 0 0.50 0.50 0.04 One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 100000100000100000100000 1.00 0.00 0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.76 0 0.24 0 1 0.76 0 0.24 0 1 0.588 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.342 0.364 0.542 0.249 0.168 0.252 0.459 0.518 0.257

Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 0.269 0.342 0.526 0.230 0.187 0.296 0.550 0.521 0.229CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 0.308 0.391 0.601 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.100 0.100 0.080Diamonds 0.135 0.265 0.253 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.743 0.785 0.597

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

Pass-TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 85% 85% 26% 85% 10% 85% 23% 85% 10% 85% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 85% 85% 26% 85% 10% 85% 23% 85% 10% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 85% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 85% 85% 46% 85% 0% 85% 10% 85% 0% 85% 55% 85% 0% 85% 10% 85% 0% 85% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0027 0.0027 0.0036 0.0036 0.0072 0.0018 0.0086 0.0022 0.0008 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0010 0.0010 0.0017 0.0007 0.0020 0.0009 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0034 0.0000 0.0034 0.0000 0.0046 0.0000 0.0046 0.0000 0.0089 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 0.0107 0.0000 0.0030 0.0000 0.0009 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0034 0.0034 0.0000 0.0000 0.0046 0.0046 0.0000 0.0000 0.0089 0.0089 0.0000 0.0000 0.0107 0.0107 0.0000 0.0000 0.0009 0.0009 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0014 0.0014 0.0018 0.0018 0.0009 0.0009 0.0011 0.0011 0.0002 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0006 0.0006 0.0000 0.0008 0.0008 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0006 0.0000 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0015 0.0015 0.0000 0.0000 0.0020 0.0020 0.0000 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 0.0000 0.0000 0.0013 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 

Total 0.0068 0.0034 0.0000 0.0034 0.0000 0.0091 0.0046 0.0000 0.0046 0.0000 0.0114 0.0089 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 0.0137 0.0107 0.0000 0.0030 0.0000 0.0014 0.0009 

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0010 0.0010 0.0017 0.0007 0.0020 0.0009 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0004 0.0004 0.0005 0.0005 0.0008 0.0004 0.0010 0.0004 0.0001 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0011 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 0.0030 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0002 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 0.0000 0.0014 0.0014 0.0000 0.0025 0.0025 0.0000 0.0030 0.0030 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0003 0.00032 0.00000 0.0004 0.00043 0.00000 0.0004 0.00036 0.00000 0.0004 0.00043 0.00000 0.0001 

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0008 0.00076 0.00000 0.0010 0.00101 0.00000 0.0007 0.00072 0.00000 0.0009 0.00086 0.00000 0.0002 

Total 0.0022 0.0011 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 0.0029 0.0014 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 0.0036 0.0025 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 0.0043 0.0030 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0004 0.0002 

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0090 0.0800 0.0120 0.1000 0.0150 0.1200 0.0180 0.0018

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car b

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 

Like Tra

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision R

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Worksheet 2 - B,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability with Severity Reduction, Bloomington Sub-c

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head O

Collision Distribution Head O

Head On Collision Distribution Head O

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Head O

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On

Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Head On Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.0664 0.0016 401600 0.1112 0.00392 913600 0.192 0.0068 1580800 0.34 0.0128 2796000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.0272 0.0008 200800 0.0448 0.00208 456800 0.0776 0.0036 790400 0.1368 0.0064 1397600Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.0272 0.0008 200800 0.0448 0.00208 456800 0.0776 0.0036 790400 0.1368 0.0064 1397600Pass car hit by Loco 0.1328 0.004 804000 0.22 0.00952 1827200 0.3808 0.01648 3160800 0.6728 0.0256 5591200

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.00936 0.00036 81360 0.02232 0.000792 185040 0.03888 0.001368 320400 0.06912 0.002448 565920Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.02496 0.000864 216960 0.06048 0.002112 493440 0.10368 0.003648 853440 0.18336 0.006528 1510080

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Broken Rail 0.04268 0.000388 646990 0.1358 0.0018042 1455000 0.2037 0.0032786 2522000 0.2716 0.004365 4456180Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.344 0.0344 84000 0.88 0.088 216000 1.36 0.136 337600

Frt Loco hits Car 0.28 0.028 70400 0.72 0.072 180000 1.12 0.112 281600Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 35200 0 0 89600 0 0 140800

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420Broken Rail, Unequip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 7 7 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 16 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500Private 1 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 16 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 1 0 0.650Private 6 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 16 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 1 0.800Private 0 6 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 7 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 16 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj 

Private 1 0.100 

50 Public_gates_lights 16 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0034 0.0046 0.008

Public_other 1 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0014 0.0018 0.000

Private 6 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0006 0.0008 0.000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0015 0.0020 0.001

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0011 0.0014 0.002

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0003 0.0004 0.000

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0008 0.0010 0.000

(conseq)

14.0 88.35 90.55 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 105

15.0 90.55 92.47 CP Adjacent (M) 1.92 40 60 60 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

16.0 92.47 94.97 Siding (M) 2.50 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 

17.0 94.97 96.81 CP Adjacent (M) 1.84 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 1.29

18.0 96.81 100.28 Plain 3.47 50 79 79 105 40 2.17 Pass Loco Hits Loco 

19.0 100.28 102.25 CP Adjacent (M) 1.97 40 60 60 79 50 4.9 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 20.0 102.25 102.25 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 21.0 102.25 104.60 CP Adjacent (M) 2.35 40 60 60 79 60 2.17 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 

22.0 104.60 106.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.83 50 79 79 105 79 4.9 7.07 2.17

23.0 106.43 108.83 Siding (M) 2.40 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 4.9 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0011 0.0021 0.00124.0 108.83 111.36 CP Adjacent (M) 2.53 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0003 0.0004 0.000

25.0 111.36 113.30 Plain 1.94 50 79 79 105 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0008 0.0007 0.000

26.0 113.30 116.36 Plain 3.06 50 79 79 105 50 027.0 116.36 118.83 Plain 2.47 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0

28.0 118.83 121.40 CP Adjacent (M) 2.57 50 79 79 105 60 0 0 0

29.0 121.40 123.57 Siding (M) 2.17 40 60 79 79 79 0 0 0

30.0 123.57 124.38 Siding (M) 0.81 25 40 40 40 105 0 0 0

31.0 124.38 124.86 Siding (M) 0.48 25 40 40 40 Freight 25 0

40 6.2450 8.77

Passenger 40 0 0 0

Length Check 36.5 36.5 60 6.24 6.24 0

79 8.77 8.77 6.24

105 0 0 8.77

Freight 25 0

40 050 0

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 000

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 000

Equipped Freight 1.43 2.28 105 0 0 0

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 13.14

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 00079 13.14 13.14 0

Timeout (secs) 0.00 105 0 0 13.14

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 1.29

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 8.41

Fallback Mode 5.00 50 26.81

Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29

60 8.41 6.24 0

79 26.81 28.98 8.41

Seats 320.00 105 0 0 26.81

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Checking Totals 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies 

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones) Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation 

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Freight 

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mphRepresentative Speed 40 mph

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 79 mph Representative Speed 105 mph

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Posted Speed (mph) Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Worksheet 3 - B,N,R: - Risk Calculations - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability with Severity Reduction, Bloomington Sub-corridor, Rest o

Representative Speed 50 mph

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and C

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles
119

120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227228229230231232233234235236237238239

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (million

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00342 Incl 0.00342 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00010 320 0.6 192 0.0012 0.00003 0 1 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00135 Incl 0.00135 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00001 0 1 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00058 Incl 0.00058 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00002 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0 1 0.009116 0.0001

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00149 Incl 0.00149 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0011 0.00003 0 1 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.00010 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00001 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.00026 320 0.6 192 0.0012 0.00004 0Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.00022 320 0.6 192 0.0019 0.00002 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.00031 320 0.6 192 0.0025 0.00002 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 1.29 20147 0.0017 0.00017 0

0.00108 0.01003 0.00033 0 0.0002

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21553 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21553 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21553 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.009116 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 8.28 21553 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.0000

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00747 Incl 0.00747 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00135 320 0.6 192 0.050 0.0018 2140 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00102 Incl 0.00102 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00018 320 0.6 192 0.003 0.0001 146 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00055 Incl 0.00055 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00010 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0001 79 0 0.009116 0.0000Pass car hit by Loco 0.00119 Incl 0.00119 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00022 320 0.6 192 0.016 0.0007 680 0 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.00064 320 0.6 192 0.005 0.0002 206Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.00166 320 0.6 192 0.033 0.0012 1420Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.00144 320 0.6 192 0.058 0.0009 3757Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.00202 320 0.6 192 0.079 0.0013 5089Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 8.41 131347 0.022 0.0022 0

0.00762 0.26653 0.00834 13517 0.0000

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00396 Incl 0.00396 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00229 320 0.6 192 0.149 0.0056 6393 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00062 Incl 0.00062 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00036 320 0.6 192 0.009 0.0004 501 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00035 Incl 0.00035 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00020 320 0.6 192 0.005 0.0003 285 0 0.009116 0.0000Pass car hit by Loco 0.00072 Incl 0.00072 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00042 320 0.6 192 0.054 0.0020 2326 0 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.00205 320 0.6 192 0.027 0.0010 1162Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.00531 320 0.6 192 0.187 0.0067 8012Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.00461 320 0.6 192 0.248 0.0040 21160Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.00643 320 0.6 192 0.335 0.0054 28667Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 26.81 418719 0.091 0.0091 0

Total 0.02166 1.10615 0.03447 68505 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.03036 1.38271 0.04314 82023 0.0002

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00531 0.29017 0.01107 12549

Intrusion Collisions 0.01002 0.25338 0.00900 10801

Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.00493 24916

Broken Rail 0.00876 0.41694 0.00668 33757

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.01145 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Rate Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Rate 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (million

0 0.000000 0.0000

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.001079163 Incl 0.00108 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00003 0.00001 0.000001 $3 0 0.028894 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000323749 Incl 0.00032 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $1 0 0.030187 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.000755414 Incl 0.00076 8.28 21553 1.29 27803 0.00002 0.00000 0.000000 $1

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00006 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00006 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00012 0.00001 0.000001 $18

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00039 0.00002 0.000002 $57Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 2.28 5935 1.29 7656 0.00032 0.000032 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0007 0.0004 0.00004 $80 0.0000

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0021 Incl 0.00215 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00039 0.00034 0.000034 $84 1 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0004 Incl 0.00035 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00006 0.00005 0.000005 $11 1 0.028894 0.0006Frt car hit by Loco 0.0007 Incl 0.00073 8.28 21553 8.41 181259 0.00013 0.00000 0.000000 $12 1 0.030187 0.0006

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00041 0.00007 0.000007 $8Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00038 0.00006 0.000006 $8

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00080 0.00011 0.000011 $299

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00255 0.00036 0.000036 $929Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 2.28 5935 8.41 49912 0.00329 0.000329 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00472 0.0043 0.00043 $1,351 0.0012

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0011 Incl 0.00111 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00064 0.00087 0.000087 $217 0 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0002 Incl 0.00021 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00012 0.00014 0.000014 $34 0 0.028894 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.0005 Incl 0.00046 8.28 21553 26.81 577832 0.00027 0.00000 0.000000 $38 0 0.030187 0.0000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.00131 0.00033 0.000033 $41Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.00120 0.00030 0.000030 $38

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.00255 0.00089 0.000089 $1,492

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.00814 0.00276 0.000276 $4,626Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 2.28 5935 26.81 159113 0.01321 0.001321 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.01423 0.0185 0.00185 $6,486 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.01964 0.0232 0.0023 $7,918 0.0012

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00168 0.00141 0.00014 400

Intrusion Collisions 0.00342 0.00077 0.00008 96Diamond Collisions 0.00127 0.00045 0.00004 170Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.00010 1810Broken Rail 0.01108 0.00314 0.00031 5612Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.00168 0Grade Crossing Collisions

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones) Table 3.6b: Risk Calculatio
240

241242243244245246247248249250251252253254255256257258259260261262263264265266267268269270271272273274275276277278279280281

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fataliti

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew Injuries Crew Fatalities per 10 Years 

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) 

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 7 109326 0.038 320 0.60 192 0.0206 0.0003 1913

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00531 0.29017 0.0110Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.01002 0.25338 0.0090

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000236 0.00203 0.0000

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00627 0.30774 0.0049Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00876 0.41694 0.0066

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 16 249888 0.200 320 0.60 192 0.4030 0.0060 39182 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.11449 0.0114

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.55834 1.55969 0.0231Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 15618 0.005 320 0.60 192 0.0094 0.0001 918

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 16 249888 0.275 320 0.60 192 0.9816 0.0146 95107 Total, All Scenarios 0.58894 2.94443 0.0663

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 1 15618 0.012 320 0.60 192 0.0446 0.0007 4323Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 6 93708 0.028 320 0.60 192 0.1004 0.0015 9727 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00168 0.00141 0.0001

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 2.28 7 41544 0.006 0.00075 0.00003 125 Intrusion Collisions 0.00342 0.00077 0.0000

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 2.28 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00127 0.00045 0.0000

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 2.28 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00347 0.00101 0.0001

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 2.28 16 94957 0.028 0.00712 0.00037 1424 Broken Rail 0.01108 0.00314 0.0003

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 2.28 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.01682 0.0016Private 0.10 0% 0.100 2.28 1 5935 0.001 0.00015 0.00001 30 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.07555 0.02371 0.0012

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 2.28 16 94957 0.034 0.01333 0.00068 2666

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 2.28 1 5935 0.002 0.00069 0.00004 139 Total, All Scenarios 0.09647 0.04731 0.0035Private 0.12 0% 0.120 2.28 6 35609 0.004 0.00167 0.00009 333

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 7 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.68541 2.99175 0.0699

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 16 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 300000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 16 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 6 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.558 1.560 0.023 151171

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.076 0.024 0.001 4717Train Type 0.634 1.58 0.02 155889

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total Passenger + Freight
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.71 0.50 0.50 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.5 0.5 0.355 0 0.355 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.8 0.2 0.568 0 0.142 0 0.70 0.30 0.497 

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.29 0.50 0.50 0.145 0 0.145 0 0.5 0.5 0.145 0 0.145 0 0.7 0.3 0.203 0 0.087 0 0.7 0.3 0.203 0 0.087 0 0.40 0.60 0.116 

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 100000100000100000100000 1.00 0.00 0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.771 0 0.229 0 1 0.771 0 0.229 0 1 0.613 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.342 0.364 0.542 0.249 0.168 0.252 0.459 0.518 0.257

Siding (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100CP Adjacent (M) 0.269 0.342 0.526 0.230 0.187 0.296 0.550 0.521 0.229CP Adjacent (U) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100Plain Track 0.308 0.391 0.601 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.100 0.100 0.080Diamonds 0.135 0.265 0.253 0.172 0.000 0.200 0.743 0.785 0.597

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

Pass-TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 85% 85% 26% 85% 10% 85% 23% 85% 10% 85% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 85% 85% 26% 85% 10% 85% 23% 85% 10% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 85% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 85% 85% 46% 85% 0% 85% 10% 85% 0% 85% 55% 85% 0% 85% 10% 85% 0% 85% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0032 0.0032 0.0043 0.0043 0.0085 0.0021 0.0102 0.0026 0.0009 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.0015 0.0007 0.0018 0.0008 0.0001 TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0038 0.0000 0.0038 0.0000 0.0051 0.0000 0.0051 0.0000 0.0100 0.0000 0.0028 0.0000 0.0121 0.0000 0.0033 0.0000 0.0010 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0038 0.0038 0.0000 0.0000 0.0051 0.0051 0.0000 0.0000 0.0100 0.0100 0.0000 0.0000 0.0121 0.0121 0.0000 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0016 0.0016 0.0021 0.0021 0.0011 0.0011 0.0013 0.0013 0.0002 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0007 0.0007 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0006 0.0000 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0017 0.0017 0.0000 0.0000 0.0023 0.0023 0.0000 0.0000 0.0012 0.0012 0.0000 0.0000 0.0015 0.0015 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 

Total 0.0077 0.0038 0.0000 0.0038 0.0000 0.0103 0.0051 0.0000 0.0051 0.0000 0.0128 0.0100 0.0000 0.0028 0.0000 0.0154 0.0121 0.0000 0.0033 0.0000 0.0015 0.0010 

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.0015 0.0007 0.0018 0.0008 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0007 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0009 0.0000 0.0009 0.0000 0.0015 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0018 0.0000 0.0008 0.0000 0.0001 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0007 0.0007 0.0000 0.0009 0.0009 0.0000 0.0015 0.0015 0.0000 0.0018 0.0018 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0001 0.00013 0.00000 0.0002 0.00017 0.00000 0.0002 0.00016 0.00000 0.0002 0.00020 0.00000 0.0000 

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0005 0.00052 0.00000 0.0007 0.00070 0.00000 0.0005 0.00049 0.00000 0.0006 0.00059 0.00000 0.0001 

Total 0.0013 0.0007 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0017 0.0009 0.0000 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 0.0022 0.0015 0.0000 0.0007 0.0000 0.0026 0.0018 0.0000 0.0008 0.0000 0.0003 0.0001 

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0090 0.0800 0.0120 0.1000 0.0150 0.1200 0.0180 0.0018

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car b

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head O

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head O

Collision Distribution Head O

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head O

Worksheet 2 - B,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability with Severity Reduction, Bloomington Sub

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Like Tra

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision R

Collision Type Like Trains

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.0664 0.0016 401600 0.1112 0.00392 913600 0.192 0.0068 1580800 0.34 0.0128 2796000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.0272 0.0008 200800 0.0448 0.00208 456800 0.0776 0.0036 790400 0.1368 0.0064 1397600Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.0272 0.0008 200800 0.0448 0.00208 456800 0.0776 0.0036 790400 0.1368 0.0064 1397600Pass car hit by Loco 0.1328 0.004 804000 0.22 0.00952 1827200 0.3808 0.01648 3160800 0.6728 0.0256 5591200

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.00936 0.00036 81360 0.02232 0.000792 185040 0.03888 0.001368 320400 0.06912 0.002448 565920Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.02496 0.000864 216960 0.06048 0.002112 493440 0.10368 0.003648 853440 0.18336 0.006528 1510080

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Broken Rail 0.04268 0.000388 646990 0.1358 0.0018042 1455000 0.2037 0.0032786 2522000 0.2716 0.004365 4456180Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.344 0.0344 84000 0.88 0.088 216000 1.36 0.136 337600

Frt Loco hits Car 0.28 0.028 70400 0.72 0.072 180000 1.12 0.112 281600Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 35200 0 0 89600 0 0 140800

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420Broken Rail, Unequip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 7 7 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 1

Public_other 0 0 0.300Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 16 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500Private 1 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 16 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 1 0 0.650Private 6 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 16 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 1 0.800Private 0 6 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 7 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 16 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 1

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj 

Private 1 0.100 

50 Public_gates_lights 16 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0038 0.0051 0.010

Public_other 1 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0016 0.0021 0.001

Private 6 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0005 0.0007 0.000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0017 0.0023 0.001

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0007 0.0009 0.001

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0001 0.0002 0.000

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0005 0.0007 0.000

(conseq)

14.0 88.35 90.55 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 105

15.0 90.55 92.47 CP Adjacent (M) 1.92 40 60 60 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

16.0 92.47 94.97 Siding (M) 2.50 50 79 79 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 

17.0 94.97 96.81 CP Adjacent (M) 1.84 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 1.29

18.0 96.81 100.28 Plain 3.47 50 79 79 105 40 2.17 Pass Loco Hits Loco 

19.0 100.28 102.25 CP Adjacent (M) 1.97 40 60 60 79 50 4.9 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 20.0 102.25 102.25 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 21.0 102.25 104.60 CP Adjacent (M) 2.35 40 60 60 79 60 2.17 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 

22.0 104.60 106.43 CP Adjacent (M) 1.83 50 79 79 105 79 4.9 7.07 2.17

23.0 106.43 108.83 Siding (M) 2.40 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 4.9 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0007 0.0013 0.00024.0 108.83 111.36 CP Adjacent (M) 2.53 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0001 0.0002 0.000

25.0 111.36 113.30 Plain 1.94 50 79 79 105 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0005 0.0005 0.000

26.0 113.30 116.36 Plain 3.06 50 79 79 105 50 027.0 116.36 118.83 Plain 2.47 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0

28.0 118.83 121.40 CP Adjacent (M) 2.57 50 79 79 105 60 0 0 0

29.0 121.40 123.57 Siding (M) 2.17 40 60 79 79 79 0 0 0

30.0 123.57 124.38 Siding (M) 0.81 25 40 40 40 105 0 0 0

31.0 124.38 124.86 Siding (M) 0.48 25 40 40 40 Freight 25 0

40 6.2450 8.77

Passenger 40 0 0 0

Length Check 36.5 36.5 60 6.24 6.24 0

79 8.77 8.77 6.24

105 0 0 8.77

Freight 25 0

40 050 0

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 000

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 000

Equipped Freight 1.43 2.28 105 0 0 0

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91.00 274.00 50 13.14

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 00079 13.14 13.14 0

Timeout (secs) 0.00 105 0 0 13.14

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 1.29

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 8.41

Fallback Mode 5.00 50 26.81

Passenger 40 1.29 1.29 1.29

60 8.41 6.24 0

79 26.81 28.98 8.41

Seats 320.00 105 0 0 26.81

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Checking Totals 36.51 36.51 36.51 36.51

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Worksheet 3 - B,N,S: - Risk Calculations - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability with Severity reduction, Bloomington Sub-corridor, Sum

Representative Speed 50 mph

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 105 mph

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and C

Representative Speed 79 mph

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mphRepresentative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed (mph) Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies 

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation 

Freight 

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Rfepresentative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles
119

120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227228229230231232233234235236237238239

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (million

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00384 Incl 0.00384 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.0004 0.00001 0 1 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00160 Incl 0.00160 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0 1 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00052 Incl 0.00052 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 1 0.009116 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00173 Incl 0.00173 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0004 0.00001 0 1 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.00008 320 0.6 192 0.0004 0.00001 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.00007 320 0.6 192 0.0006 0.00001 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.00010 320 0.6 192 0.0008 0.00001 0Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 1.29 6691 0.0000 0.00006 0

0.00036 0.00280 0.00011 0 0.0000

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6423 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6423 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6423 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.009116 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.43 6423 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.0000

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00844 Incl 0.00844 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00046 320 0.6 192 0.017 0.0006 721 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00120 Incl 0.00120 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00006 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0000 51 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00050 Incl 0.00050 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.000 0.0000 21 0 0.009116 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00136 Incl 0.00136 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00007 320 0.6 192 0.005 0.0002 232 0 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.00021 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 69

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.00055 320 0.6 192 0.011 0.0004 472Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.00048 320 0.6 192 0.019 0.0003 1248

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.00067 320 0.6 192 0.026 0.0004 1690Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 8.41 43623 0.007 0.0007 0

0.00254 0.08886 0.00278 4503 0.0000

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00448 Incl 0.00448 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00077 320 0.6 192 0.050 0.0019 2156 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00073 Incl 0.00073 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00013 320 0.6 192 0.003 0.0002 177 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00032 Incl 0.00032 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00006 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0001 77 0 0.009116 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00082 Incl 0.00082 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00014 320 0.6 192 0.018 0.0007 794 0 0.001823 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.00068 320 0.6 192 0.009 0.0003 386Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.00176 320 0.6 192 0.062 0.0022 2661Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.00153 320 0.6 192 0.082 0.0013 7027Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.00214 320 0.6 192 0.111 0.0018 9521

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 26.81 139063 0.030 0.0030 0

Total 0.00720 0.36849 0.01149 22798 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.01010 0.46015 0.01438 27302 0.0000

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00178 0.09784 0.00373 4229

Intrusion Collisions 0.00333 0.08415 0.00299 3587

Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.00164 8275

Broken Rail 0.00291 0.13847 0.00222 11211

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.00380 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (million

0 0.000000 0.0000

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.000651995 Incl 0.00065 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.028894 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000130399 Incl 0.00013 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.030187 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.000521596 Incl 0.00052 7.43 6423 1.29 8286 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00003 0.00000 0.000000 $4

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00008 0.00000 0.000000 $12Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 1236 1.29 1595 0.00007 0.000007 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 1.29 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0001 0.0001 0.00001 $17 0.0000

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0013 Incl 0.00130 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00007 0.00006 0.000006 $15 1 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0002 Incl 0.00015 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00001 0.00001 0.000001 $2 1 0.028894 0.0001Frt car hit by Loco 0.0005 Incl 0.00050 7.43 6423 8.41 54019 0.00003 0.00000 0.000000 $2 1 0.030187 0.0001

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00009 0.00001 0.000001 $2Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00008 0.00001 0.000001 $2

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00017 0.00002 0.000002 $62

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00053 0.00007 0.000007 $193Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 1236 8.41 10397 0.00069 0.000069 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 8.41 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00097 0.0009 0.00009 $278 0.0003

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0007 Incl 0.00067 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00012 0.00016 0.000016 $39 0 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0001 Incl 0.00009 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00002 0.00002 0.000002 $4 0 0.028894 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.0003 Incl 0.00032 7.43 6423 26.81 172207 0.00006 0.00000 0.000000 $8 0 0.030187 0.0000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00027 0.00007 0.000007 $9Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00025 0.00006 0.000006 $8

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00053 0.00019 0.000019 $311

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00170 0.00058 0.000058 $964Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.43 1236 26.81 33143 0.00275 0.000275 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 26.81 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00293 0.0038 0.00038 $1,342 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.00404 0.0048 0.0005 $1,637 0.0003

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00030 0.00024 0.00002 71

Intrusion Collisions 0.00071 0.00016 0.00002 20Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00013 0.00001 51Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.00002 377Broken Rail 0.00231 0.00065 0.00007 1169Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.00035 0Grade Crossing Collisions

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones) Table 3.6b: Risk Calculatio

Per 10 years
240

241242243244245246247248249250251252253254255256257258259260261262263264265266267268269270271272273274275276277278279280281

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fataliti

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew Injuries Crew Fatalities per 10 Years 

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) 

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 7 36309 0.013 320 0.60 192 0.0068 0.0001 635

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00178 0.09784 0.0037Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00333 0.08415 0.0029

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000070 0.00060 0.0000

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00208 0.10221 0.0016Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00291 0.13847 0.0022

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 16 82992 0.066 320 0.60 192 0.1338 0.0020 13013 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03748 0.0038

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.18544 0.51800 0.0077Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 5187 0.002 320 0.60 192 0.0031 0.0000 305

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 16 82992 0.091 320 0.60 192 0.3260 0.0048 31587 Total, All Scenarios 0.19561 0.97876 0.0221

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 1 5187 0.004 320 0.60 192 0.0148 0.0002 1436Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 6 31122 0.009 320 0.60 192 0.0333 0.0005 3230 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00030 0.00024 0.0000

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 1.43 7 8654 0.001 0.00016 0.00001 26 Intrusion Collisions 0.00071 0.00016 0.0000

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00038 0.00013 0.0000

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00072 0.00021 0.0000

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 1.43 16 19780 0.006 0.00148 0.00008 297 Broken Rail 0.00231 0.00065 0.0000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 1.43 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00350 0.0003Private 0.10 0% 0.100 1.43 1 1236 0.000 0.00003 0.00000 6 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01574 0.00494 0.0002

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 1.43 16 19780 0.007 0.00278 0.00014 555

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 1.43 1 1236 0.000 0.00014 0.00001 29 Total, All Scenarios 0.02016 0.00985 0.0007Private 0.12 0% 0.120 1.43 6 7417 0.001 0.00035 0.00002 69

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 7 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.21577 0.98860 0.0228

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 16 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 300000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 16 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 1 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 6 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.185 0.518 0.008 50207

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.016 0.005 0.000 983Train Type 0.201 0.52 0.01 51189

Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total Passenger + Freight

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN 

DecelTrain/System Parameter Value Train Type Speeds To Stop Reduction RedCon* eration Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Reduction RedCon* Full Speed

Type (mph) to RedCon* to Stop (ft/sec2) to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to RedCon* to Stop to Stop

Freight Coefficient P 0.035 Freight 25 1671 1671 0 0.668 58 0 1275 0 2946 0 2946

Appl'n Time (sec) 13.8 40 3686 1619 2068 0.668 14 77 308 1692 1927 3760 5686Train Weight (lb) 37600000 50 5452 3384 2068 0.668 36 77 791 1692 4176 3760 7935Brake Force (lb) 779683 Passenger 40 1452 1452 0 1.293 48 0 1065 0 2517 0 2517

Passenger Coefficient A 0.666 60 3177 3177 0 1.293 71 0 1565 0 4742 0 4742

Coefficient B 0 79 5433 3035 2398 1.293 25 68 541 1499 3576 3896 7472Safety Factor 1.25 105 9493 7096 2398 1.293 54 68 1190 1499 8286 3896 12182

Train Control Latency/T-out (sec) 3 Frt Red'd Consq 35 1125 NA NA 1.293

ACS Response (sec 0

15 *Note: RedCon refers to the speed at which collision consequences will be significantly reduced 2500

60 mph for passenger trains and 35 mph for freight trainsIf train speed is lower that this speed, then there are no reduced consequences and Zone A2 has zero length

Segment Start End Type Variant Passenger Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freig

Number (milepost (milepost) Miles Feet Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Number Name Stops 

(Consq*) (Other)

32.0 124.9 126.5 CP Adjacent (M) 1.6 8659.2 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 Bloom Yard 2946 2517 2517 0 0 0 5713 6142 6142 0000000000000

33.0 126.5 126.5 Diamond 0.0 0.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 25.0 40.0 40.0 40.0

34.0 126.5 128.8 CP Adjacent (M) 2.3 11932.8 30.0 50.0 50.0 25.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 2946 4742 3576 0 0 3896 8987 7191 4461 0000000000000

35.0 128.8 131.0 Plain 2.2 11616.0 60.0 79.0 90.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4176 3576 3576 3896 3896 3896 3544 4144 4144 0000000000000

36.0 131.0 133.7 Plain 2.8 14572.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 60.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 6501 7101 2391 0000000000000

37.0 133.7 136.9 Plain 3.2 16790.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3896 8855 9319 4609 0000000000000

38.0 136.9 138.6 CP Adjacent (M) 1.7 9134.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 849 1063 1663 0 0 0 3047 0 0 462 0000000

39.0 138.6 141.3 Siding (M) McLean (sig'd) 2.7 14097.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 McLean 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 6026 6626 1916 0000000000000

40.0 141.3 143.4 CP Adjacent (M) 2.0 10824.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 2538 2752 3352 0 0 0 1358 0 0 462 0000000

41.0 143.4 148.3 Plain 5.0 26136.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 60.0 79.0 79.0 2.0 S Fertilizer, Atlanta 4176 4742 3576 0 0 3896 21960 21394 18664 0000000000000

42.0 148.3 151.0 Plain 2.7 14044.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 E Lincoln Grain 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5973 6573 1863 0000000000000

43.0 151.0 153.6 CP Adjacent (U) 2.6 13728.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Kruger 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 5656 6256 1546 0000000000000

44.0 153.6 155.6 Siding (U) Elkhart (Unsig'd) 2.0 10612.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 4176 4742 3576 0 0 3896 6437 5871 3141 0000000000000

45.0 155.6 155.6 Diamond 0.0 0.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.046.0 155.6 157.3 CP Adjacent (U) 1.7 8923.2 50.0 70.0 70.0 50.0 60.0 60.0 79.0 1.0 Havana Ind. Lincoln 4176 4742 3576 3760 0 3896 988 4182 1452 0000000000000

47.0 157.3 160.1 Plain 2.8 14731.2 60.0 79.0 90.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4176 3576 3576 3760 3896 3896 6796 7260 7260 0000000000000

48.0 160.1 162.1 Plain 2.1 10876.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 2591 2942 3405 0 0 0 1305 0 0 462 0000000

49.0 162.1 164.0 Plain 1.9 10190.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 1905 2255 2719 0 0 0 1991 0 0 462 0000000

50.0 164.0 166.2 Plain 2.1 11193.6 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 2908 3258 3722 0 0 0 988 0 0 462 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

51.0 166.2 168.3 CP Adjacent (U) 2.2 11510.4 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 1.0 Elkhart Grain 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3225 3575 4039 0 0 0 671 0 0 4620 0 0 0 0 0 0 

52.0 168.3 170.4 Siding (U) Elkhart (Unsig'd) 2.1 10876.8 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 2591 2942 3405 0 0 0 1305 0 0 462 0 0 00000

53.0 170.4 172.3 CP Adjacent (U) 1.9 10243.2 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 1958 2308 2772 0 0 0 1939 0 0 462 0000000

54.0 172.3 175.8 Plain 3.5 18480.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 105.0 4176 3576 8286 3760 3896 3896 10545 11008 6298 0000000000000

55.0 175.8 179.5 Plain 3.7 19272.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4176 3576 3576 3760 3896 3896 11337 11800 11800 0000000000000

56.0 179.5 181.0 CP Adjacent (M) 1.5 7920.0 60.0 79.0 110.0 50.0 79.0 79.0 79.0 4176 3576 3576 3744 3896 3896 0 448 448 15 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 015

Check Total 56.1Train Type Representative 

Speed

(mph)

Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet Miles Feet

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 2.7 14097.6

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

79 2.7 14097.6 2.7 14097.6 0.0 0

105 0.0 0 2.7 14097.6

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 4.1 21489.6

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 2.0 10612.8 2.0 10612.8 0.0 079 2.1 10876.8 2.1 10876.8 2.0 10612.8

105 0.0 0 2.1 10876.8

Freight 25 3.9 20592

40 0.0 050 5.3 27878.4

Passenger 40 1.6 8659.2 1.6 8659.2 1.6 8659.2

60 2.3 11932.8 2.3 11932.8 0.0 079 5.3 27878.4 5.3 27878.4 3.8 19852.8

105 0.0 0 3.8 19958.4

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 8.4 44404.8

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 1.7 8923.2 1.7 8923.2 0.0 079 6.7 35481.6 6.7 35481.6 1.7 8923.2

105 0.0 0 6.7 35481.6

Freight 25 0.0 0

40 0.0 050 31.8 167904

Passenger 40 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0

60 5.0 26136 2.8 14572.8 0.0 079 26.9 141768 29.0 153331.2 13.6 71755.2

105 0.0 0 18.2 96148.8

Check Total 56.1 56.1 56.1 56.1

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (M) Segments (ft) 14097.6Number Siding (M) Segments 1 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 4176 3576 8286 3896 3896 3896 6026 6626 1916

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.296 0.254 0.588 0.276 0.276 0.276 0.427 0.470 0.136

HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.281 0.241 0.558 0.263 0.263 0.263 0.506 0.547 0.229 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Siding (U) Segments (ft) 21489.6Number Siding (M) Segments 2 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 8351 8317 11861 3760 3896 6487 9379 9276 3141

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.389 0.387 0.552 0.175 0.181 0.302 0.436 0.432 0.146HS Pass 0 652 1848

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.369 0.368 0.524 0.166 0.172 0.313 0.515 0.510 0.213 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (M) Segments (ft) 48470.4Number CP Adjacent Segments 5 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C FT0 Freight 0 3 2497 18418 17985 26239 11537 11688 11179 18516 18797 11052

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.380 0.371 0.541 0.238 0.241 0.231 0.382 0.388 0.228HS Pass 0 772 1728

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.361 0.353 0.514 0.226 0.229 0.250 0.463 0.468 0.286 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, CP Adjacent (U) Segments (ft) 44404.8Number CP Adjacent Segments 4 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 16702 15468 28432 15175 11688 12975 12527 17248 2998

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.376 0.348 0.640 0.342 0.263 0.292 0.282 0.388 0.068HS Pass 0 652 1848

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.357 0.331 0.608 0.325 0.250 0.304 0.368 0.469 0.138 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Plain Track Segments (ft) 167904Number CP Adjacent Segments 11 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Worksheet 1-Sp,N: IDOT Risk Model: Braking Distances and Collision Zone Calculations, Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability with Severity Reduction, Spring

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Guilty Train Distance (ft) Total Zone Lengths (ft)

Sight Distance (ft)

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 Totals

Table 1.1: Stopping Distance Parameters and Calculations, Including Timeout and ACS Response Delay

Table 1.3: Mitigation and Prevention Zones - All Segments - Lengths in Feet

Lengths in Zone CLengths in Zone C

Zone C within Sight Distance

O

Zon

Overlap of Zone A1 into

Zone C

Table 1.6d: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (U)Segments

Table 1.6c: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for CP Adjacent (M) Segments

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6e: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Plain Track Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone A1 TotalsZone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Table 1.6a: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (M) Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Sum Zone Lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Table 1.6b: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Aggregate Values for Siding (U) Segments

Zone A2 Totals Zone B Totals

Braking Distance Calculations (including free running in TO) (ft)

Zone A1: Limited Speed Reduction

No Prevention or Mitigation

Zone B: Able to Stop 

Full Prevention

Overlap of Stopping Distance Overlap of Zone A1 Into 

Table 1.2: Segment Definitions: Springfield Sub-Corridor, MP 124.9 (Bloomington) - MP 181.0 (Ridgely)

Braking Formula Inputs

Severity Mitigation Into Zone C

Zone A2: Reduced Speed to Stop Distance in Timeout

in Zone C

Guilty Train Speed (mph)

Braking Duration (secs)

Siding (unmon)

Segment Type

Siding (mon)

Table 1.5: Aggregate Segment Length by Segment Type and Speed

Collision Consq* Other

Aggregate Length of Segments by Train and Segment Types

Freight

CP Adjacent (mon)

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Plain Track

Conv passenger High Speed Passenger

Length Representative Speed (mph) Posted Speed (mph) Industry Siding 

*This speed is used to calculate collision consequences in collisions between an equipped and an unequipped train ONLY, reflecting the IDOT PTC speed restriction when an equipped train nears an unequipped train

Blue cells contain data imported from the Inputs worksheet

Yellow cells contain data exported to the next worksheet in the sequence of three sheets that perform the calculations for one sub-corridor, season and operating state
160

161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN 

Average distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 18418 17985 26239 000000

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.110 0.107 0.156 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

HS Pass 0 389 2111

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.104 0.102 0.148 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.100 0.100 0.084 Values transferred to Collision Matrix

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

A1 A2 B

Total Length, Diamond Adjacent Segments (ft) 40128.0Number of Diamond Adjacent Segments 4 Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS PassAverage distance in Zone C (ft) Freight 0 0 2500 10111 10983 10557 4135 0 7193 25882 29145 22378

Passenger 0 0 2500 0.252 0.274 0.263 0.103 0.000 0.179 0.645 0.726 0.558HS Pass 0 0 2500

Collision Accident Mitigation Probabilities: Combined All Zones. 0.239 0.260 0.250 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.713 0.790 0.630

Distribution of train location at time of In Block 0.95violation in Reference Case accidents Previous Block 0.05PTC Risk Increment in Zone C 2Potential danger length in Zone C (ft) 2500

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)

Fraction of total length in zone

Lengths in Zone C

Table 1.6f: Distribution of Equipped Train Locations by Collision Preventability Zones - Values for Diamond Segments

Zone A1 Totals Zone A2 Totals

Fraction of total length in zone

Zone B Totals

Zone lengths A1, A2, B (ft)
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.62 0.50 0.50 0.31 0 0.31 0 0.5 0.5 0.31 0 0.31 0 0.8 0.2 0.496 0 0.124 0 0.8 0.2 0.496 0 0.124 0 0.70 0.30 0.434 

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.30 0.50 0.50 0.15 0 0.15 0 0.5 0.5 0.15 0 0.15 0 0.7 0.3 0.21 0 0.09 0 0.7 0.3 0.21 0 0.09 0 0.40 0.60 0.12 

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.08 0.50 0.50 0.04 0 0.04 0 0.5 0.5 0.04 0 0.04 0 0.7 0.3 0.056 0 0.024 0 0.7 0.3 0.056 0 0.024 0 0.50 0.50 0.04 One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 100000100000100000100000 1.00 0.00 0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.762 0 0.238 0 1 0.762 0 0.238 0 1 0.594 

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.281 0.241 0.558 0.263 0.263 0.263 0.506 0.547 0.229

Siding (U) 0.369 0.368 0.524 0.166 0.172 0.313 0.515 0.510 0.213CP Adjacent (M) 0.361 0.353 0.514 0.226 0.229 0.250 0.463 0.468 0.286CP Adjacent (U) 0.357 0.331 0.608 0.325 0.250 0.304 0.368 0.469 0.138Plain Track 0.104 0.102 0.148 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.100 0.100 0.084Diamonds 0.239 0.260 0.250 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.713 0.790 0.630

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

Pass-TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 85% 85% 70% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 85% 85% 23% 85% 21% 85% 29% 85% 14% 85% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 85% 85% 23% 85% 21% 85% 29% 85% 14% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 85% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 85% 85% 51% 85% 0% 85% 51% 85% 0% 85% 46% 85% 0% 85% 37% 85% 0% 85% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0028 0.0028 0.0037 0.0037 0.0074 0.0019 0.0089 0.0022 0.0008 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.0016 0.0007 0.0019 0.0008 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0035 0.0000 0.0035 0.0000 0.0046 0.0000 0.0046 0.0000 0.0090 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 0.0108 0.0000 0.0030 0.0000 0.0009 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0035 0.0035 0.0000 0.0000 0.0046 0.0046 0.0000 0.0000 0.0090 0.0090 0.0000 0.0000 0.0108 0.0108 0.0000 0.0000 0.0009 0.0009 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0014 0.0014 0.0019 0.0019 0.0009 0.0009 0.0011 0.0011 0.0002 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0007 0.0007 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0006 0.0000 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0015 0.0015 0.0000 0.0000 0.0020 0.0020 0.0000 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 0.0000 0.0000 0.0013 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 

Total 0.0069 0.0035 0.0000 0.0035 0.0000 0.0092 0.0046 0.0000 0.0046 0.0000 0.0116 0.0090 0.0000 0.0025 0.0000 0.0139 0.0108 0.0000 0.0030 0.0000 0.0014 0.0009 

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0007 0.0007 0.0009 0.0009 0.0016 0.0007 0.0019 0.0008 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0004 0.0007 0.0005 0.0005 0.0008 0.0004 0.0010 0.0004 0.0001 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0010 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0024 0.0000 0.0010 0.0000 0.0029 0.0000 0.0012 0.0000 0.0002 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 0.0000 0.0014 0.0014 0.0000 0.0024 0.0024 0.0000 0.0029 0.0029 0.0000 0.0002 0.0002 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0005 0.00050 0.00000 0.0004 0.00042 0.00000 0.0003 0.00035 0.00000 0.0004 0.00042 0.00000 0.0001 

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0009 b 0.00090 0.00000 0.0010 0.00096 0.00000 0.0007 0.00069 0.00000 0.0008 0.00082 0.00000 0.0002 

Total 0.0024 0.0010 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0028 0.0014 0.0000 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 0.0035 0.0024 0.0000 0.0010 0.0000 0.0041 0.0029 0.0000 0.0012 0.0000 0.0004 0.0002 

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0094 0.0800 0.0120 0.1000 0.0150 0.1200 0.0180 0.0018

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car b

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 0.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Collision Distribution

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Head O

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On Rear End/Side Head On

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution Head O

Collision Distribution Head O

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head O

Worksheet 2 - Sp,N,R: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability with Severity Reduction, Springfield Sub-co

Table 2.5a: Freight trains In Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Freight to Freight

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Like Tra

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision R

Collision Type Like Trains

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight Passenger to Freight

Mauve cells contain data imported from previous worksheet in a group of three worksheets covering one subcorridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.0664 0.0016 401600 0.1112 0.00392 913600 0.192 0.0068 1580800 0.34 0.0128 2796000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.0272 0.0008 200800 0.0448 0.00208 456800 0.0776 0.0036 790400 0.1368 0.0064 1397600Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.0272 0.0008 200800 0.0448 0.00208 456800 0.0776 0.0036 790400 0.1368 0.0064 1397600Pass car hit by Loco 0.1328 0.004 804000 0.22 0.00952 1827200 0.3808 0.01648 3160800 0.6728 0.0256 5591200

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.00936 0.00036 81360 0.02232 0.000792 185040 0.03888 0.001368 320400 0.06912 0.002448 565920Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.02496 0.000864 216960 0.06048 0.002112 493440 0.10368 0.003648 853440 0.18336 0.006528 1510080

Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000Broken Rail 0.04268 0.000388 646990 0.1358 0.0018042 1455000 0.2037 0.0032786 2522000 0.2716 0.004365 4456180Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.344 0.0344 84000 0.88 0.088 216000 1.36 0.136 337600

Frt Loco hits Car 0.28 0.028 70400 0.72 0.072 180000 1.12 0.112 281600Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 35200 0 0 89600 0 0 140800

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420Broken Rail, Unequip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 2

Public_other 0 0 0.300Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 14 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 5 1 0.650Private 5 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 13 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 4 0.800Private 0 4 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 0 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 2

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj 

Private 0 0.100 

50 Public_gates_lights 26 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0035 0.0046 0.009

Public_other 5 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0014 0.0019 0.000

Private 5 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0005 0.0007 0.000

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0015 0.0020 0.001

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0010 0.0014 0.002

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0005 0.0004 0.000

32 $124.86 $126.50 CP Adjacent (M) 1.64 25 40 40 40 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0009 0.0010 0.000

33 $126.50 $126.50 Diamond 0.00 25 40 40 40

34 $126.50 $128.76 CP Adjacent (M) 2.26 25 60 60 79

35 $128.76 $130.96 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

36 $130.96 $133.72 Plain 2.76 50 79 60 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 

37 $133.72 $136.90 Plain 3.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 0

38 $136.90 $138.63 CP Adjacent (M) 1.73 50 79 79 105 40 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 39 $138.63 $141.30 Siding (M) 2.67 50 79 79 105 50 2.67 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 

40 $141.30 $143.35 CP Adjacent (M) 2.05 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 

41 $143.35 $148.30 Plain 4.95 50 60 79 79 60 0 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 

42 $148.30 $150.96 Plain 2.66 50 79 79 105 79 2.67 2.67 0

43 $150.96 $153.56 CP Adjacent (U) 2.60 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.67 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0024 0.0000 0.00144 $153.56 $155.57 Siding (U) 2.01 50 60 60 79 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0003 0.0000 0.000

45 $155.57 $155.57 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0007 0.0000 0.000

46 $155.57 $157.26 CP Adjacent (U) 1.69 50 60 60 79 50 4.07

47 $157.26 $160.05 Plain 2.79 50 79 79 79 Passenger 40 0 0 0

48 $160.05 $162.11 Plain 2.06 50 79 79 105 60 2.01 2.01 0

49 $162.11 $164.04 Plain 1.93 50 79 79 105 79 2.06 2.06 2.01

50 $164.04 $166.16 Plain 2.12 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.06

51 $166.16 $168.34 CP Adjacent (U) 2.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 3.9

52 $168.34 $170.40 Siding (U) 2.06 50 79 79 105 40 053 $170.40 $172.34 CP Adjacent (U) 1.94 50 79 79 105 50 5.2854 $172.34 $175.84 Plain 3.50 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

55 $175.84 $179.49 Plain 3.65 50 79 79 79 60 2.26 2.26 0

56 $179.49 $180.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.50 50 79 79 79 79 5.28 5.28 3.76

105 0 0 3.78

Freight 25 0

40 050 8.41

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 1.69 1.69 0

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 6.72 6.72 1.69

Equipped Freight 1.73 3.16 105 0 0 6.72

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91 274 50 31.8

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 4.95 2.76 079 26.85 29.04 13.59

Timeout (secs) 0 105 0 0 18.21

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 3.9

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 0

Fallback Mode 5 50 52.23

Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

60 10.91 8.72 0

79 43.58 45.77 21.05

Seats 320 105 0 0 33.44

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Check Totals 56.13 56.13 56.13 56.13

Table 3.4: Collision Frequencies by Segment Type and C

Representative Speed 79 mph

Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 40 mph

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Worksheet 3 - Sp,N,R: - Risk Calculations - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability with Severity Reduction, Springfield Subcorridor, Rest o

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 105 mph

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Trips/Day

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Representative Speed 25 mph

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability) Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies 

Representative Speed 50 mph

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation 

Freight 

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Percent Train-Miles in

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles
119

120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227228229230231232233234235236237238239

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (million

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00901 Incl 0.00901 9.16 23843 1.64 39103 0.00035 320 0.6 192 0.0045 0.00011 0 2 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00093 Incl 0.00093 9.16 23843 1.64 39103 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00001 0 2 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00051 Incl 0.00051 9.16 23843 1.64 39103 0.00002 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0 2 0.009000 0.0004

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00110 Incl 0.00110 9.16 23843 1.64 39103 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0011 0.00003 0 2 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.00013 320 0.6 192 0.0002 0.00001 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.00032 320 0.6 192 0.0016 0.00005 0Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.00028 320 0.6 192 0.0024 0.00002 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.00039 320 0.6 192 0.0032 0.00003 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 1.64 25614 0.0021 0.00021 0

0.00158 0.01539 0.00048 1 0.0005

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.009000 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.0000

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00349 Incl 0.00349 9.16 23843 21.05 501905 0.00175 320 0.6 192 0.065 0.0023 2772 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00054 Incl 0.00054 9.16 23843 21.05 501905 0.00027 320 0.6 192 0.004 0.0002 215 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00030 Incl 0.00030 9.16 23843 21.05 501905 0.00015 320 0.6 192 0.002 0.0001 117 0 0.009000 0.0000Pass car hit by Loco 0.00062 Incl 0.00062 9.16 23843 21.05 501905 0.00031 320 0.6 192 0.023 0.0010 987 0 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.00161 320 0.6 192 0.012 0.0004 516Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.00417 320 0.6 192 0.083 0.0029 3555Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.00362 320 0.6 192 0.146 0.0023 9403Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.00505 320 0.6 192 0.198 0.0032 12739Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 21.05 328759 0.054 0.0054 0

0.01693 0.58598 0.01783 30304 0.0000

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00424 Incl 0.00424 9.16 23843 33.44 797326 0.00338 320 0.6 192 0.221 0.0083 9449 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00065 Incl 0.00065 9.16 23843 33.44 797326 0.00052 320 0.6 192 0.014 0.0006 720 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00034 Incl 0.00034 9.16 23843 33.44 797326 0.00027 320 0.6 192 0.007 0.0003 379 0 0.009000 0.0000Pass car hit by Loco 0.00074 Incl 0.00074 9.16 23843 33.44 797326 0.00059 320 0.6 192 0.077 0.0029 3312 0 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.00256 320 0.6 192 0.034 0.0012 1449Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.00662 320 0.6 192 0.233 0.0083 9994Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.00574 320 0.6 192 0.309 0.0050 26392Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.00802 320 0.6 192 0.418 0.0067 35757Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 15618 33.44 522266 0.114 0.0114 0

Total 0.02771 1.42588 0.04476 87452 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.04621 2.02725 0.06306 117757 0.0005

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00770 0.41740 0.01590 17951

Intrusion Collisions 0.01541 0.36371 0.01290 15515

Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0.00733 35795

Broken Rail 0.01347 0.61921 0.00993 48496

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0.01699 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (million

0 0.000000 0.0000

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.002414381 Incl 0.00241 9.16 23843 3.9 92990 0.00022 0.00008 0.000008 $19 0 0.029173 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000348661 Incl 0.00035 9.16 23843 3.9 92990 0.00003 0.00001 0.000001 $2 0 0.030373 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.000686074 Incl 0.00069 9.16 23843 3.9 92990 0.00006 0.00000 0.000000 $2

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00026 0.00002 0.000002 $2Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00024 0.00002 0.000002 $2

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00051 0.00003 0.000003 $77Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00164 0.00009 0.000009 $239Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 3.16 8225 3.9 32079 0.00135 0.000135 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0030 0.0016 0.00016 $343 0.0000

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.029173 0.0013Frt car hit by Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 9.16 23843 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.030373 0.0014

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 0.00000 3.16 8225 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.0028

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0010 Incl 0.00098 9.16 23843 52.23 1245345 0.00122 0.00166 0.000166 $412 0 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0002 Incl 0.00020 9.16 23843 52.23 1245345 0.00025 0.00028 0.000028 $70 0 0.029173 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.0004 Incl 0.00043 9.16 23843 52.23 1245345 0.00053 0.00000 0.000000 $75 0 0.030373 0.0000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.00353 0.00089 0.000089 $112Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.00325 0.00082 0.000082 $103

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.00687 0.00241 0.000241 $4,028

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.02198 0.00746 0.000746 $12,491Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 3.16 8225 52.23 429617 0.03566 0.003566 $0Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.03763 0.0492 0.00492 $17,291 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.04061 0.0508 0.0051 $17,634 0.0028

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00232 0.00203 0.00020 580

Intrusion Collisions 0.00728 0.00174 0.00017 219Diamond Collisions 0.00284 0.00100 0.00010 380Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0.00024 4105Broken Rail 0.02362 0.00755 0.00075 12730Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0.00370 0Grade Crossing Collisions

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones) Table 3.6b: Risk Calculatio
240

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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fataliti

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew Injuries Crew Fatalities per 10 Years 

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) 

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00770 0.41740 0.0159Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.01541 0.36371 0.0129

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000515 0.00443 0.0001

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00964 0.45704 0.0073Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.01347 0.61921 0.0099

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 16 249888 0.200 320 0.60 192 0.4030 0.0060 39182 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.16990 0.0169

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 1 15618 0.010 320 0.60 192 0.0205 0.0003 1990 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.50680 1.47592 0.0219Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 15618 0.005 320 0.60 192 0.0094 0.0001 918

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 13 203034 0.223 320 0.60 192 0.7976 0.0118 77275 Total, All Scenarios 0.55353 3.50760 0.0851

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 4 62472 0.050 320 0.60 192 0.1785 0.0026 17292Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 4 62472 0.019 320 0.60 192 0.0669 0.0010 6485 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00232 0.00203 0.0002

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 3.16 3 24676 0.004 0.00044 0.00002 74 Intrusion Collisions 0.00728 0.00174 0.0001

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00284 0.00100 0.0001

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00739 0.00243 0.0002

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Broken Rail 0.02362 0.00755 0.0007

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.03701 0.0037Private 0.10 0% 0.100 3.16 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.09797 0.03721 0.0019

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 3.16 26 213862 0.077 0.03003 0.00154 6005

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 3.16 5 41127 0.012 0.00481 0.00025 962 Total, All Scenarios 0.14141 0.08896 0.0070Private 0.12 0% 0.120 3.16 5 41127 0.005 0.00192 0.00010 385

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 3 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.69495 3.59657 0.0921

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 300000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 26 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 5 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 5 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.507 1.476 0.022 143142

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.098 0.037 0.002 7427Train Type 0.605 1.51 0.02 150569

Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total Passenger + Freight

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings
1

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100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD 

Train Pairs in Collision Scenario Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

In Collision Prob (Top Level) 

Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Percent Guilty 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 

Both Trains Pass-Pass 0.80 0.50 0.50 0.4 0 0.4 0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0 0.4 0 0.8 0.2 0.64 0 0.16 0 0.8 0.2 0.64 0 0.16 0 0.70 0.30 0.56 

TBE Pass-TBE Freight 0.20 0.50 0.50 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.7 0.3 0.14 0 0.06 0 0.7 0.3 0.14 0 0.06 0 0.40 0.60 0.08 

(Note 3) TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0.00 0.50 0.50 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

One Train Percent Guilty 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 

TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 0.00 100000100000100000100000 1.00 0.00 0

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 010000010000010000010000 0.00 1.00 0

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0

Percent Guilty 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 

Neither Train NE Freight - NE Freight 0.00 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 00.5 0.50 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 00.7 0.30 0 0 0 0.50 0.50 0 

TBE 

Total Probability (checking) 1 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.5 0 0.5 0 1 0.78 0 0.22 0 1 0.78 0 0.22 0 1 0.64 

bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb

Segment

Type Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass Freight Pass HS Pass

Siding (M) 0.281 0.241 0.558 0.263 0.263 0.263 0.506 0.547 0.229

Siding (U) 0.369 0.368 0.524 0.166 0.172 0.313 0.515 0.510 0.213CP Adjacent (M) 0.361 0.353 0.514 0.226 0.229 0.250 0.463 0.468 0.286CP Adjacent (U) 0.357 0.331 0.608 0.325 0.250 0.304 0.368 0.469 0.138Plain Track 0.104 0.102 0.148 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.100 0.100 0.084Diamonds 0.239 0.260 0.250 0.098 0.000 0.170 0.713 0.790 0.630

Preventability Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Equipped Train 

Guilty Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

Pass-TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 85% 85% 23% 85% 21% 85% 29% 85% 14% 85% 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 85% 85% 23% 85% 21% 85% 29% 85% 14% 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 85% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 85% 0% 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 85% 85% 51% 85% 0% 85% 51% 85% 0% 85% 46% 85% 0% 85% 37% 85% 0% 85% 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 

Reference Case (CTC) Collision Accident Likelihood by Segment Type 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.006 

(collisions/million train miles)

Passenger Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 2 0.0036 0.0036 0.0048 0.0048 0.0096 0.0024 0.0115 0.0029 0.0010 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0005 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0011 0.0005 0.0013 0.0005 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 0 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 0 

Checking total 0.0041 0.0000 0.0041 0.0000 0.0054 0.0000 0.0054 0.0000 0.0107 0.0000 0.0029 0.0000 0.0128 0.0000 0.0034 0.0000 0.0011 

Scenario Totals - Passenger Tots, P-UF Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0041 0.0041 0.0000 0.0000 0.0054 0.0054 0.0000 0.0000 0.0107 0.0107 0.0000 0.0000 0.0128 0.0128 0.0000 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 

Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0018 0.0018 0.0024 0.0024 0.0012 0.0012 0.0014 0.0014 0.0002 

Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0000 0.0004 0.0004 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0003 0.0003 0.0000 0.0004 0.0004 0.0000 0.0001 

Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0000 0.0019 0.0019 0.0000 0.0000 0.0025 0.0025 0.0000 0.0000 0.0013 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 0.0016 0.0016 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 

Total 0.0081 0.0041 0.0000 0.0041 0.0000 0.0108 0.0054 0.0000 0.0054 0.0000 0.0135 0.0107 0.0000 0.0029 0.0000 0.0162 0.0128 0.0000 0.0034 0.0000 0.0016 0.0011 

Freight Siding - Monitored Siding - Unmonitored CP Adjacent - Monitored Siding CP Adjacent - Unmonitored Siding Plain Track 

Trains in 

Collisions Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Equip Unequip Head On Rear/Side Equip U

Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty Guilty 

Both TBE Pass-Pass 0 

Pass-TBE Freight 1 0.0005 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0011 0.0005 0.0013 0.0005 0.0001 

TBE Freight - TBE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

One TBE Pass - NE Freight, Head -0n 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side, Pass into NE Frt 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Rear/Side NE Frt into Pass 1 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

TBE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Neither TBE NE Freight - NE Freight 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Checking total 0.0005 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0000 0.0006 0.0000 0.0011 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0013 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0001 

Scenario Totals - Freight Totals Totals Totals Totals Totals 

Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0000 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 0.0006 0.0006 0.0000 0.0011 0.0011 0.0000 0.0013 0.0013 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 

Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0000 0.0001 0.00009 0.00000 0.0001 0.00012 0.00000 0.0001 0.00011 0.00000 0.0001 0.00014 0.00000 0.0000 

Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0000 0.0004 b 0.00036 0.00000 0.0005 0.00048 0.00000 0.0003 0.00034 0.00000 0.0004 0.00041 0.00000 0.0001 

Total 0.0009 0.0005 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0012 0.0006 0.0000 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 0.0015 0.0011 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0018 0.0013 0.0000 0.0005 0.0000 0.0002 0.0001 

Freight Plus Passenger Totals (check) 0.0600 0.0090 0.0800 0.0120 0.1000 0.0150 0.1200 0.0180 0.0018

Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits car hit P loco hits F loco hits Loco hits 

car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car by loco F car P car car b

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 

0.8 0.2 0.80 0.20 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 0.75 0.25 Passenger to Freight 

Like Tra

Freight to Freight Freight to Freight Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger Passenger to Passenger

Collision Ratios Collision Ratios Collision R

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains Collision Type

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Passenger to Freight

Collision Ratios

Collision Type Like Trains Unlike Trains

Freight to Freight

Passenger to Passenger

Worksheet 2 - Sp,N,S: Collision Frequencies Calculation - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability with Severity Reduction, Springfield Sub-

Table 2.5a: Freight Trains In Train-to-Train Collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles) 

Table 2.4a: Passenger Trains in Train-to-Train collisions (Trains in Collisions per Million Train-Miles)

Not Prevented of Mitigated

Mitigated Prevented

Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Table 2.3a: Collision Preventability Matrix (Percent Accidents Preventable Relative to CTC Reference Case)

Head On Head O

Collision Distribution Head O

Head On Collision Distribution Head O

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Head O

Head On Rear End/Side

Head On Head On Rear End/SideHead On

Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side

Table 2.2: Preventability Data For Unequipped train Guilty, One Train TBE

Table 2.1a: Collision Distribution Matrix (Fraction Accidents by Train Pair and Collision Type). Collisions Between Trains Operating on the IDOT Test Corridor Only (not diamonds and intrusions)

Head On Rear End/Side Head On

Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Collision Distribution Head On Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Collision Distribution

Head On Rear End/Side Head On Rear End/Side Rear End/Side Rear End/Side

Mauve cells contain data imported from Worksheet 1 in this group of three worksheets covering this sub-corridor, season and operating state.

In rear-end/side collisions between like trains there is one loco hits car and one car hit by loco in each collision. In rear/side collisions between a passenger and freight trains, the ratio between passenger hits freight and freight loco hits passenger car are a function of the percentages given in Table IN-5b on the Inputs sheet. The values are given in the tables beneath the trains in collisions for each segment type. 

Quantity in cell C18 is for all collisions between a passenger train and an unequipped freight train
1

23456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Passenger Trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.0664 0.0016 401600 0.1112 0.00392 913600 0.192 0.0068 1580800 0.34 0.0128 2796000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.0272 0.0008 200800 0.0448 0.00208 456800 0.0776 0.0036 790400 0.1368 0.0064 1397600Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.0272 0.0008 200800 0.0448 0.00208 456800 0.0776 0.0036 790400 0.1368 0.0064 1397600Pass car hit by Loco 0.1328 0.004 804000 0.22 0.00952 1827200 0.3808 0.01648 3160800 0.6728 0.0256 5591200

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits Car 0.00936 0.00036 81360 0.02232 0.000792 185040 0.03888 0.001368 320400 0.06912 0.002448 565920Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits Car 0.02496 0.000864 216960 0.06048 0.002112 493440 0.10368 0.003648 853440 0.18336 0.006528 1510080Overspeed 0.044 0.0004 667000 0.14 0.00186 1500000 0.21 0.00338 2600000 0.28 0.0045 4594000

Broken Rail 0.04268 0.000388 646990 0.1358 0.0018042 1455000 0.2037 0.0032786 2522000 0.2716 0.004365 4456180

Work Zone Violation 0.083 0.0083 0 0.125 0.0125 0 0.164 0.0164 0 0.218 0.0218 0

Freight trains Accident Scenario Accident

Sub-scenarios Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Injuries Fatalities Damage $

Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.344 0.0344 84000 0.88 0.088 216000 1.36 0.136 337600

Frt Loco hits Car 0.28 0.028 70400 0.72 0.072 180000 1.12 0.112 281600

Frt car hit by Loco 0 0 35200 0 0 89600 0 0 140800

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.06336 0.00648 7920 0.162 0.01656 20160 0.252 0.0252 31680Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.08448 0.00864 10560 0.216 0.02208 26880 0.336 0.0336 42240Overspeed, Equip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000

Overspeed, Unequip 0.056 0.0056 150000 0.144 0.0144 375000 0.35 0.035 586000Broken Rail, Equip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.05432 0.005432 145500 0.13968 0.013968 363750 0.3395 0.03395 568420Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.042 0.0042 0 0.066 0.0066 0 0.083 0.0083 0

Train Type Representative Type of Number

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Passenger HS Passenger Freight Diamonds

Passenger Freight Injuries Fatalities Cost $/Accid't Injuries Fatalities Cost $

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0 0 0.350 0.0028 0.000047 50000 2

Public_other 0 0 0.300

Private 0 0 0.100

60 Public_gates_lights 14 0 0.600 0.0068 0.000112 113000 0

Public_other 0 0 0.500

Private 0 0 0.200

79 Public_gates_lights 15 16 0.800 0.0105 0.000156 196000 0

Public_other 5 1 0.650

Private 5 1 0.300

105 Public_gates_lights 0 13 1.100 0.0186 0.000276 346000 0

Public_other 0 4 0.800

Private 0 4 0.300

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 3 0.150 0.12 0.005 20000 0

Public_other 0 0.120Private 0 0.050

40 Public_gates_lights 0 0.300 0.25 0.013 50000 2

Public_other 0 0.250 Scenarios Siding (M) Siding (U) CP Adj 

Private 0 0.100 

50 Public_gates_lights 26 0.360 0.39 0.02 78000 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 0.0041 0.0054 0.010

Public_other 5 0.300 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 0.0018 0.0024 0.001

Private 5 0.120 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 0.0004 0.0005 0.000

Check Totals 39 39 39 Pass Car Hit by Loco 0.0019 0.0025 0.001

Segment Start End Type Length Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0005 0.0006 0.001

Number (Milepost) (Milepost) (miles) Freight Pass HS Pass HS Pass Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0001 0.0001 0.000

32 $124.86 $126.50 CP Adjacent (M) 1.64 25 40 40 40 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0004 0.0005 0.000

33 $126.50 $126.50 Diamond 0.00 25 40 40 40

34 $126.50 $128.76 CP Adjacent (M) 2.26 25 60 60 79

35 $128.76 $130.96 Plain 2.20 50 79 79 79 Train Type Represent've Freight Reg Pass HS Pass HS Pass

36 $130.96 $133.72 Plain 2.76 50 79 60 105 Speed (mph) (miles) (miles) Collision (mi) Other (mi) Scenarios 25 40 50 

37 $133.72 $136.90 Plain 3.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 038 $136.90 $138.63 CP Adjacent (M) 1.73 50 79 79 105 40 0 Pass Loco Hits Loco 

39 $138.63 $141.30 Siding (M) 2.67 50 79 79 105 50 2.67 Pass Loco Hits Pass Car 40 $141.30 $143.35 CP Adjacent (M) 2.05 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 0 0 0 Pass Loco Hits Freight Car 

41 $143.35 $148.30 Plain 4.95 50 60 79 79 60 0 0 0 Pass Car Hit by Loco 

42 $148.30 $150.96 Plain 2.66 50 79 79 105 79 2.67 2.67 0

43 $150.96 $153.56 CP Adjacent (U) 2.60 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.67 Freight Loco Hits Loco 0.0010 0.0000 0.000

44 $153.56 $155.57 Siding (U) 2.01 50 60 60 79 Freight 25 0 Freight Loco Hits Car 0.0001 0.0000 0.000

45 $155.57 $155.57 Diamond 0.00 40 40 40 40 40 0 Freight Car Hit By Loco 0.0003 0.0000 0.000

46 $155.57 $157.26 CP Adjacent (U) 1.69 50 60 60 79 50 4.0747 $157.26 $160.05 Plain 2.79 50 79 79 79 Passenger 40 0 0 0

48 $160.05 $162.11 Plain 2.06 50 79 79 105 60 2.01 2.01 0

49 $162.11 $164.04 Plain 1.93 50 79 79 105 79 2.06 2.06 2.01

50 $164.04 $166.16 Plain 2.12 50 79 79 105 105 0 0 2.06

51 $166.16 $168.34 CP Adjacent (U) 2.18 50 79 79 105 Freight 25 3.9

52 $168.34 $170.40 Siding (U) 2.06 50 79 79 105 40 0

53 $170.40 $172.34 CP Adjacent (U) 1.94 50 79 79 105 50 5.28

54 $172.34 $175.84 Plain 3.50 50 79 79 105 Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.6455 $175.84 $179.49 Plain 3.65 50 79 79 79 60 2.26 2.26 0

56 $179.49 $180.99 CP Adjacent (M) 1.50 50 79 79 79 79 5.28 5.28 3.76

105 0 0 3.78

Freight 25 0

40 050 8.41

Train Type Summer Rest of Year Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 1.69 1.69 0

Passenger 6.00 6.00 79 6.72 6.72 1.69

Equipped Freight 1.73 3.16 105 0 0 6.72

Unequipped Freight 0.00 0.00 Freight 25 0

40 0

Operating Days 91 274 50 31.8

Passenger 40 0 0 0

60 4.95 2.76 079 26.85 29.04 13.59

Timeout (secs) 0 105 0 0 18.21

Normal Operating Mode 95.00 Freight 25 3.9

Timeout Mode 0.00 40 0

Fallback Mode 5 50 52.23

Passenger 40 1.64 1.64 1.64

60 10.91 8.72 079 43.58 45.77 21.05

Seats 320 105 0 0 33.44

Occupancy Factor 0.60 Check Totals 56.13 56.13 56.13 56.13

Table 3.4: Co

Table 3.3a: Segment Data (for reference only, not used in calculations)

Representative Speed (mph)

Table 3.3b: Aggregate Segment Data: SegmentsTypes, Train Types, Speeds, and Lengths

Weighted Collision Accident Frequencies 

Table 3.5b: Risk Calculation 

Table 3.2: Grade Crossing and Diamonds: Numbers by Representative Speed, and Accident Frequency and Consequences

CP Adjacent (mon)

Per Million Crossing Passes Pass. Occup't Casualty Prob/accident) Freight Trains (per accident)

Segment Type

Totals All Types

Plain Track

CP Adjacent (unmon)

Siding (mon)

Siding (unmon)

Table 3.5a: Risk Calculation - Passenger Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones)

Percent Train-Miles in

Trips/Day

Table 3.4a: Traffic Inputs to Risk Calculation

Table 3.1: Consequences Look-up Tables (Data Sources: Previous ICF Passenger Corridor Project (passenger), FRA Accident Data 2001-5 (freight)

Number Crossings Accident Frequency Crossing Collision Consequences

Representative Speed 79 mph

Representative Speed 25 mph Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 105 mph

Passenger Train Occupancy

Representative Speed 60 mph

Worksheet 3 - Sp,N,R: - Risk Calculations - Base Case II: Northeast Corridor ATC, 85% Preventability with Severity Reduction, Springfield Subcorridor, Sum

Representative Speed 40 mph

Representative Speed 50 mph

Freight 

Aggregate Segment Length by Type and Speed Band (from Seg Def and Preventability)

Casualties and damage in Table 3.1 are per accident, except for Work Zone Violations which are per million train-miles
119

120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227228229230231232233234235236237238239

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Train-miles Accidents Number seats Occupancy Passengers Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) per 10 years per 10 years per train Factor per train per 10 years per 10 years per 10 years Diamonds mill passes (million

40 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.01064 Incl 0.01064 7.73 6683 1.64 10959 0.00012 320 0.6 192 0.0015 0.00004 0 2 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00120 Incl 0.00120 7.73 6683 1.64 10959 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0 2 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00034 Incl 0.00034 7.73 6683 1.64 10959 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 2 0.009000 0.0001Pass car hit by Loco 0.00131 Incl 0.00131 7.73 6683 1.64 10959 0.00001 320 0.6 192 0.0004 0.00001 0 2 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.00004 320 0.6 192 0.0001 0.00000 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits intruder 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.00011 320 0.6 192 0.0005 0.00002 0Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.00009 320 0.6 192 0.0008 0.00001 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.00013 320 0.6 192 0.0011 0.00001 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 1.64 8507 0.0007 0.00007 0

0.00052 0.00510 0.00016 0 0.0001

60 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.009000 0.0000

Pass car hit by Loco 0.00000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0 0 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 0 0 0.00000 320 0.6 192 0.0000 0.00000 0

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 0 0 0.0000 0.00000 0

0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.0000

79 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00414 Incl 0.00414 7.73 6683 21.05 140668 0.00058 320 0.6 192 0.021 0.0008 921 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00070 Incl 0.00070 7.73 6683 21.05 140668 0.00010 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0001 78 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00020 Incl 0.00020 7.73 6683 21.05 140668 0.00003 320 0.6 192 0.000 0.0000 22 0 0.009000 0.0000Pass car hit by Loco 0.00075 Incl 0.00075 7.73 6683 21.05 140668 0.00011 320 0.6 192 0.008 0.0003 335 0 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.00054 320 0.6 192 0.004 0.0001 171Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.00138 320 0.6 192 0.028 0.0010 1181

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.00120 320 0.6 192 0.048 0.0008 3123

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.00168 320 0.6 192 0.066 0.0011 4231

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 21.05 109186 0.018 0.0018 0

0.00561 0.19457 0.00592 10061 0.0000

105 Train-Train Collision Pass Loco hits Loco 0.00502 Incl 0.00502 7.73 6683 33.44 223466 0.00112 320 0.6 192 0.073 0.0028 3134 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Pass Car 0.00083 Incl 0.00083 7.73 6683 33.44 223466 0.00019 320 0.6 192 0.005 0.0002 261 0 0.000000 0.0000

Pass Loco hits Frt Car 0.00023 Incl 0.00023 7.73 6683 33.44 223466 0.00005 320 0.6 192 0.001 0.0001 71 0 0.009000 0.0000Pass car hit by Loco 0.00090 Incl 0.00090 7.73 6683 33.44 223466 0.00020 320 0.6 192 0.026 0.0010 1123 0 0.001800 0.0000

Intrusion Collision (rollout) Pass Loco hits car 0.00860 0.43 0.00490 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.00085 320 0.6 192 0.011 0.0004 481Intrusion Collision (other)) Pass Loco hits car 0.01440 0.12 0.01267 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.00220 320 0.6 192 0.077 0.0028 3319

Overspeed 0.01100 0.00 0.01100 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.00191 320 0.6 192 0.103 0.0016 8765

Broken Rail 0.01670 0.08 0.01536 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.00266 320 0.6 192 0.139 0.0022 11875

Work Zone Violation 0.00 6.00 5187 33.44 173453 0.038 0.0038 0

Total 0.00918 0.47336 0.01485 29029 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.01531 0.67303 0.02093 39090 0.0001

Totals All Speeds Train-train Collisions 0.00252 0.13837 0.00526 5943

Intrusion Collisions 0.00512 0.12079 0.00429 5153

Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0.00244 11888

Broken Rail 0.00447 0.20565 0.00330 16106

Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0.00564 0

Representative Speed Accident Scenario Accident Base Freq'y Preventability Adjusted Trips/day Trips per Length of Number Freq'y per Collisio

(mph) Sub-scenarios (per million tm) Frequency 10 years Track (miles) Train-miles Accidents Injuries Fatalities Damage $ Diamonds mill passes (million

0 0.000000 0.0000

25 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.001049731 Incl 0.00105 7.73 6683 3.9 26062 0.00003 0.00001 0.000001 $2 0 0.029173 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.000112471 Incl 0.00011 7.73 6683 3.9 26062 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 0 0.030373 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.000337413 Incl 0.00034 7.73 6683 3.9 26062 0.00001 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00005 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00004 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00009 0.00001 0.000001 $14Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00030 0.00002 0.000002 $43

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.73 1496 3.9 5833 0.00024 0.000024 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 3.9 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.0005 0.0003 0.00003 $61 0.0000

40 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.029173 0.0003

Frt car hit by Loco 0.0000 Incl 0.00000 7.73 6683 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0 2 0.030373 0.0004

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.73 1496 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00000 0.0000 0.00000 $0 0.0007

50 Train-Train Collision Frt Loco hits Loco 0.0004 Incl 0.00042 7.73 6683 52.23 349031 0.00015 0.00020 0.000020 $50 0 0.000000 0.0000

Frt Loco hits Car 0.0001 Incl 0.00006 7.73 6683 52.23 349031 0.00002 0.00002 0.000002 $6 0 0.029173 0.0000Frt car hit by Loco 0.0002 Incl 0.00021 7.73 6683 52.23 349031 0.00007 0.00000 0.000000 $10 0 0.030373 0.0000

Intrusion Coll'n equip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.43 0.00821 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00064 0.00016 0.000016 $20

Intrusion Coll'n equip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.12 0.00757 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00059 0.00015 0.000015 $19

Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (rollout) Frt Loco hits Car 0.014 0.00 0.01440 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0Intrusion Coll'n Unequip (other) Frt Loco hits Car 0.009 0.00 0.00860 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Overspeed, Equip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00125 0.00044 0.000044 $732

Overspeed, Unequip 0.016 0.00 0.01600 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Broken Rail, Equip 0.056 0.08 0.05115 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00400 0.00136 0.000136 $2,271

Broken Rail, Unequip 0.056 0.00 0.05560 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Equip 0.00 1.73 1496 52.23 78114 0.00648 0.000648 $0

Work Zone Viol'n, Unequip 0.00 0.00 0 52.23 0 0.00000 0.000000 $0

Totals 0.00672 0.0088 0.00088 $3,108 0.0000

Overall Totals 0.00724 0.0091 0.0009 $3,169 0.0007

Totals All Speeds Train-Train Collisions 0.00028 0.00023 0.00002 69

Intrusion Collisions 0.00132 0.00032 0.00003 40Diamond Collisions 0.00080 0.00028 0.00003 107Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0.00004 746Broken Rail 0.00429 0.00137 0.00014 2315Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0.00067 0Grade Crossing Collisions

Per 10 years

Table 3.6a: Risk Calculation - Freight Trains (Collisions, Broken Rail Derailments, Overspeed, Work Zones) Table 3.6b: Risk Calculatio
240

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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V 

Train Type Representative Type of Base Preventability Adjusted Trips per Crossing Crossing Collisions Seats per Occupancy Passengers Passenger/ Passenger/ Damage Train Type Accident Scenario Accidents Injuries Fataliti

Speed (mph) Grade-crossing Collision Factor Collision Day Passes Passes per 10 Years Train Factor per Train Crew Injuries Crew Fatalities per 10 Years 

Frequency Frequency per Trip per 10 Years (Passenger) per 10 Years per 10 Years ($) 

Passenger 40 Public_gates_lights 0.35 0% 0.350 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Passenger Train-Train Collisions 0.00252 0.13837 0.0052Private 0.10 0% 0.100 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Intrusion Collisions 0.00512 0.12079 0.0042

60 Public_gates_lights 0.60 0% 0.600 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.000144 0.00124 0.0000

Public_other 0.50 0% 0.500 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Overspeed 0.00320 0.15179 0.0024Private 0.20 0% 0.200 6.00 0 0 0.000 320 0.60 192 0.0000 0.0000 0 Broken Rail 0.00447 0.20565 0.0033

79 Public_gates_lights 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 16 82992 0.066 320 0.60 192 0.1338 0.0020 13013 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.05643 0.0056

Public_other 0.65 0% 0.650 6.00 1 5187 0.003 320 0.60 192 0.0068 0.0001 661 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.16832 0.49018 0.0072Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 1 5187 0.002 320 0.60 192 0.0031 0.0000 305

105 Public_gates_lights 1.10 0% 1.100 6.00 13 67431 0.074 320 0.60 192 0.2649 0.0039 25664 Total, All Scenarios 0.18378 1.16445 0.0282

Public_other 0.80 0% 0.800 6.00 4 20748 0.017 320 0.60 192 0.0593 0.0009 5743Private 0.30 0% 0.300 6.00 4 20748 0.006 320 0.60 192 0.0222 0.0003 2154 Freight Train-Train Collisions 0.00028 0.00023 0.0000

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 1.73 3 4487 0.001 0.00008 0.00000 13 Intrusion Collisions 0.00132 0.00032 0.0000

Equipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Diamond Collisions 0.00080 0.00028 0.0000

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Overspeed 0.00134 0.00044 0.0000

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Broken Rail 0.00429 0.00137 0.0001

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Work Zone Violation 0.00000 0.00673 0.0006Private 0.10 0% 0.100 1.73 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Grade Crossing Collisions 0.01781 0.00677 0.0003

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 1.73 26 38885 0.014 0.00546 0.00028 1092

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 1.73 5 7478 0.002 0.00087 0.00004 175 Total, All Scenarios 0.02585 0.01614 0.0012Private 0.12 0% 0.120 1.73 5 7478 0.001 0.00035 0.00002 70

Freight 25 Public_gates_lights 0.15 0% 0.150 0.00 3 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 0.20963 1.18059 0.0295

Unequipped Public_other 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Private 0.05 0% 0.050 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

40 Public_gates_lights 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0 Unit Costs ($/Casualty) 100000 300000

Public_other 0.25 0% 0.250 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.10 0% 0.100 0.00 0 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

50 Public_gates_lights 0.36 0% 0.360 0.00 26 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

Public_other 0.30 0% 0.300 0.00 5 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0Private 0.12 0% 0.120 0.00 5 0 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0

0.168 0.490 0.007 47540

Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Diamonds 0.018 0.007 0.000 1350Train Type 0.186 0.50 0.01 48890

Table 3.8: Summary - All Risks

Total Passenger + Freight

Total - Passenger

Total - Freight

Totals - All Speeds

Table 3.7: Risk Calculations: Passenger and Freight Trains; Grade Crossings