MID-DECADE CENSUS

HEARINGS'-*

BEFORE THE \

cSUB^MITTEE_OJLCMSUS AND STATISTICS^

OF THE "T~GM® ^0-

U.SU^JW.COMMITTEE ON \"

POST OFFICE AND CIVIL SERVICE^

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

NINETIETH CONGRESS

FIRST SESSION

ON

H.R. 7659 and Related Bills

BILLS TO AMEND TITLE 13> UNITED STATES CODE, TO

PROVIDE FOR A MID-DECADE CENSUS OF POPULATION,

UNEMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING IN 1975 AND EVERY

10 YEARS THEREAFTER

APRIL 25 AND 26, 1967

Serial No. 90-4

Printed for the use of the Committee on Post Office and Civil Service

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1967
COMMITTED ON POST OFFICE AND CIVIL SERVICE

THADDBDS J. DULSKI, New York, Chairman

DAVID N. HENDERSON, North Carolina

ARNOLD OLSEN, Montana

MORRIS K. UDALL, Arizona

DOMINICK V. DANIELS, New Jersey

ROBERT N. C. NIX, Pennsylvania

JOE R. POOL, Texas

WILLIAM J. GREEN, Pennsylvania

JAMES M. HANLEY, New York

CHARLES H. WILSON, California

JEROME R. WALDIE, California

RICHARD C. WHITE, Texas

WILLIAM D. FORD, Michigan

LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana

FRANK J. BRASCO, New York

ROBERT J. CORBETT, Pennsylvania

H. R. GROSS, Iowa

GLENN CUNNINGHAM, Nebraska

EDWARD J. DERWINSKI, Illinois

ALBERT W. JOHNSON, Pennsylvania

JAMES T. BROYHILL, North Carolina

DANIEL E. BUTTON, New York

WILLIAM L. SCOTT, Virginia

PHILIP E. RUPPE, Michigan

JAMES A. McCLURE, Idaho

FLETCHER THOMPSON, Georgia

CHARLES E. JOHNSON, Staff Director

B. BUNTON BEAT, Associate Staff Director

JOHN H. MABTINY, Counsel

WILLIAM A. IRVINE, Assistant Staff Director

THEODORE J. KAZT, Senior Staff Assistant

SUBCOMMITTEE ON CENSUS AND STATISTICS

WILLIAM J. GREEN, Pennsylvania, Chairman

ARNOLD OLSEN, Montana

ROBERT N. C. NIX, Pennsylvania

JEROME R. WALDIE, California

RICHARD C. WHITE, Texas

Ex Offlcio Voting Members

WILLIAM L. SCOTT, Virginia

JAMES A. McCLURE, Idaho

FLETCHER THOMPSON, Georgia

THADDEUS J. DULSKI, New York

H

ROBERT J. CORBETT, Pennsylvania
CONTENTS

Statement by• *•*•

Bowman, Dr. Raymond T., Assistant Director for Statistical Standards, Bureau of the Budget __ 5

Brotzman, Hon. Donald G., a Representative in Congress from the

State of Colorado 56

ByrdjHon. Robert C, a Representative in Congress from the State

of West Virginia

Dechant, Tony T., president, National Farmers Union 60

Dulski, Hon. Thaddeus J., a Representative in Congress from the

Stateof New York 55

Eckler, Dr. A. Ross, Director, Bureau of the Census 16

Fuqua, Hon. Don, a Representative in Congress from the State of

Florida 4

Gibbons, Hon. Sam M., a Representative in Congress from the State

of Florida ... • 56

Inouye, Hon. Daniel K., a Senator in Congress from the State of

Hawaii

McGimsey, George B., assistant director, regional planning council,

Baltimore, Md., representing the American Institute of Planners.. 43

Mindlin, Albert, chairman of the Committee on Small Area Statistics

of the American Statistical Association.. 62

Olsen, Hon. Arnold, a Representative in Congress from the State of

Montana

Perkins, Hon. Carl D., a Representative in Congress from the State

of Kentucky

Rafsky, William L., executive director, Old Philadelphia Development Corp 34

RibicofT, Hon. Abraham A., a Senator in Congress from the State of

Connecticut 4!)

Wilcox, Walter W., Director of Agricultural Economics, Department

of Agriculture 31

Communications received from•

Aiken, John H., executive director, Federal Statistics Users' Conference, to Hon. William J. Green, letter dated April 25, 1967 64

Berry, Brian J. L., professor, University of Chicago, to Hon. William

J. Green, letter dated April 10, 1967 67

Black, Harold, coordinator of community development, city of Detroit,

to Hon. William J. Green, letter dated April 11, 1967 66

Bryant, Farris, Chairman, Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, to Hon. William J. Green, letter dated May 1,

1967 68

Dunckel, Pauline, executive secretary, Institute of Appliance Manufacturers, to Hon. William J. Green, letter dated April 24, 1967 61

Feldt, Allan G., assistant professor, Cornell University, to Hon.

William J. Green, letter dated April 13, 1967 66

Graves, Gene, State of Illinois Department of Business and Economic

Development, to Hon. William J. Green, letter dated April 11, 1967. 65

Hauser, Philip M., director and professor of sociology, University of

Chicago, to Hon. William J. Green, letter dated April 18, 1967 67

Heyman, Mark, assistant director, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

State Planning Board, to Hon. William J. Green, letter dated

April 7, 1967 65

m
IV CONTENTS

Communications received from•Continued *»*•

Hollmann, Walter P., senior demographic |analyst, California Department of Finance, to Hon. William J. Green, letter dated April 18,

1967.. 70

Hunt, John W., Alexander & Alexander, Inc., to Hon. William J.

Green, letter dated April 10, 1967 . 67

Mattison, Berwyn F., M.D., executive director, the American Public

Health Association, Inc., to Hon. William J. Green, letter dated

April 26, 1967, with enclosure 69

Mitchell, Robert B., University of Pennsylvania Graduate School of

Fine Arts, to Hon. William J. Green, letter dated April 14, 1967... 66

Pritchard, Allen E., Jr., assistant executive director, National League

of Cities, to Hon. William J. Green, letter dated April 25, 1967 57

Schwan, Charles F., Jr., director, Washington office, Council of State

Governments, to lion. William J. Green, letter dated April 16, 1967. 57

Smathers, Hon. George A., to Hon. William J. Green, letter dated

April 21, 1967 48

Teitz, Michael B., assistant professor of city and regional planning,

University of California, to Hon. William J. Green, letter dated

April 19, 1967 68

Trowbridge, A. B., Acting Secretary of Commerce, to Hon. John W.

McCormack, Speaker of the House of Representatives, letter dated

March 17, 1967, with enclosed statement of purpose and need 2
MID-DECADE CENSUS

TUESDAY, APRIL 25, 1967

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES,

SUBCOMMITTEE ON CENSUS AND STATISTICS OF THE

COMMITTEE ON POST OFFICE AND CIVIL SERVICE

Washington, D.C.

The subcommittee convened at 10:08 a.m., in room 429, Cannon

Building, Hon. William J. Green (chairman) presiding.

Mr. GREEN. The subcommittee will come to order.

Our purpose this morning is to take testimony on H.R. 7659, a bill

introduced by me on March 22.

(The bill is as follows:)

[H.R. 7659, 90tb Cong., first Bess.]

A BILL To amend title 13, United States Code, to provide for a mid-decade census of

population, unemployment, and housing In the year 1975 and every ten years thereafter

Be it enacted 6[/ the Senate and Eouse of Representatives of the United States

of America in Congress assembled, That section 141 of title 13, United States

Code, is amended by adding at the end thereof the following new subsection:

"(c) Without regard to subsections (a) and (b) of this section, the Secretary,

in the year 1075 and every ten years thereafter, shall conduct a mid-decade

census of population, unemployment, and housing in such form and content as he

may determine, taking into account the extent to which current information is

available. The mid-decade census shall make maximum use of sampling procedures consistent with statistical needs. The census shall be taken as of the

first day of April, which date shall be known as the census date. Such information shall not be used for apportionment of Representatives.".

Mr. GREEN. Identical bills have been introduced by Mr. Olsen, of

Montana: Mr. Nix, of Pennsylvania; Mr. Udall, of Arizona; Mr.

Brasco, of New York; Mr. Perkins, of Kentucky; Mr. Button, of New

York; Mr. Thompson of Georgia; Mr. Eilberg, of Pennsylvania; Mr.

Gibbons, of Florida; Mr. Tunney, of California; and Mr. Corbett, of

Pennsylvania. Other bills to the same purpose were introduced by

Mr. Fuqua, of Florida; Mr. Pool, of Texas; and Mr. MacGregor, of

Minnesota.

I should like to introduce into the record a statement of purpose and

need which was transmitted to the Speaker of the House of Representatives by the Acting Secretary of Commerce. Secretary Trowbridge informs us he was advised by the Bureau of the Budget that

the proposed legislation is consistent with the administration's objectives.

l
2 MID-DECADE CENSUS

(The letter and statement of purpose and need are as follows:)

THE SECRETARY OF COMMERCE,

Washington, D.C., March 11,1967.

Hon. JOHN W. MCCORMACK,

Speaker of the House of Representatives,

Washington, D.O.

DEAR MR. SPEAKER : Enclosed are four copies of a draft bill:

"To amend title 13, United States Code, to provide for a mid-decade census

of population, unemployment, and housing in the year 1975 and every ten

years thereafter."

and four copies of a statement of purpose and need in support thereof.

We have been advised by the Bureau of the Budget that this proposed legislation is consistent with the administration's objectives.

Sincerely yours,

A. B. TROWBRIDOE,

Acting Secretary of Commerce.

Enclosures.

A BILL To amend title 13, United States Code, to provide for a mid-decade census of

population, unemployment, and housing In the year 1U75 and every ten years thereafter

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States

of America in Congress assembled. That section 141 of title 13, United States

Code, is amended by adding at the end thereof the following new subsection:

"(c) Without regard to subsections (a) and (b) of this section, the Secretary,

In the year 1975 and every ten years thereafter, shall conduct a mid-decade

census of population, unemployment, and housing in such form and content as

he may determine, taking into account the extent to which current information

is available. The mid-decade census shall make maximum use of sampling procedures consistent with statistical needs. The Census shall be taken as of the

first day of April, which date shall be known as the census date. Such information shall not be used for apportionment of Representatives."

STATEMENT OF PURPOSE AND NEED

Based on hearings held over the past several years by the House Post Office

and Civil Service Committee and discussions inside and outside the Federal Government there appears to be a broad consensus that changes in our Nation are so

great that we need measures more frequently than once every 10 years.

This bill is being submitted at this time because a decision now on a mid-decade

census for 1975 and thereafter will affect planning for the 1970 census and the

large-scale sample survey of households proposed for 1968. A decision now would

affect the planning of Federal, State, and local statistical programs. It could also

have a significant effect, for example, upon the address register programs following the 1970 census.

We believe that it Is not only important to consider the census program over

the entire decade from the standpoint of the data to be provided but also to establish a continuity of operations so that censuses can be conducted efficiently

and at minimum cost. Moreover, if we know in advance that a 1975 census will

be taken our planning for 1970 can take this factor Into account so that direct

changes can be effectively measured for specific items.

The following five points should be noted in connection with this legislation :

1. This hill provides for a mid-decade census of population, unemployment and housing beginning April 1. 1975, and every 10 years thereafter.

Information obtained shall not, unlike the decennial censuses, be used for

apportionment of Representatives.

2. The Secretary of Commerce shall determine the form and content of the

mid-decade census, taking into account the extent to which current information is available. The mid-decade census shall make maximum use of sampling procedures consistent with statistical needs.

3. It is the intent of this language that the mid-decade census does not

necessarily have to be a repetition of the type taken every 10 years at the

beginning of the decade although it may be. There is present developmental

work pointed toward obtaining some of the more critical data obtained in

decennial censuses on an even more current basis than once every 5 years.
MID-DECADE CENSUS 3

This Includes population and family Income distributions for all counties In

the United States each year, based largely upon information provided in income tax returns.

4. It is also the intent of the language to provide maximum flexibility,

based upon the situation as it develops at the mid-decade in the future. With

technological advances, greater experience in taking censuses by mail, the

need to emphasize data needs in certain geographic and subject matter areas

it becomes increasingly important to be flexible.

5. The decennial census, with its detailed geographic and subject matter

coverage, should remain as the most important benchmark. The mid-decade

census should be regarded as an updating of the most significant aspects of

the decennial census and filling in voids that develop during the decade, to

the extent that they are not already met by other techniques.

Mr. GREEN. Bills for a mid-decade census have been introduced in

each of the last several Congresses, and detailed hearings were held in

the 87th Congress in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City, and Washington, and in the 89th Congress in Washington. The subcommittee

found generally strong support of the legislation by many Governors: mayors; health, housing, and transportation officials; planners; marketers; and experts in a variety of fields. Administration

support for the bills in previous Congresses was lacking, however, and

although H.R. 6183 of the 80th Congress was reported on favorably by

the subcommittee and the full committee, no mid-decade census legislation has thus far been enacted.

Previous bills had as their immediate objective the conducting of an

additional census within this decade. As the midpoint of the decade

was passed and the date for the 1970 decennial census drew nearer, the

taking of a census within the decade became less feasible and the value

of it diminished.

Part of the administration's objection was in fact based on these

considerations, and did not extend to the scheduling of a census in an

orderly and well-timed fashion for future decades.

The bill before us now, H.R. 7659, provides for the first mid-decade

census of population, unemployment, and housing to be taken in 1975,

and subsequent ones at the middle of each succeeding decade. Thus,

the factor of timing becomes a favorable rather than an adverse feature. Passage of the bill by this Congress would enable the Bureau of

the Census to design and construct the 1970 census so as to take effective account of the next census being scheduled for 5 years rather

than 10 yearslater.

Another change in the language that has affected the administration's position is the inclusion in the present bills of statements that

the census shall take "into account the extent to which current information is available," and "the mid-decade census shall make maximum

use of sampling procedures consistent with statistical needs." These

provisions are intended to make it clear that the census is to be taken

rn the most economical fashion possible to meet the needs for current

data and not necessarily in the exact detail of a regular decennial

census.

In studying the records of the earlier hearings, I have been impressed

by the evidence in favor of having a census every 5 years instead of

every 10, so that we will not have to depend on terribly obsolete basic

data for planning and operating vital programs. We are suffering

from a lack of fresh information right now, and will continue to suf-
4 MID-DECADE CENSUS

fer until we can have the results of the 1970 census. It is too late to do

very much about it for the immediate future, but we can anticipate

the same or even greater demands in the 1970's and later decades and

take steps now to provide for them.

Because the testimony of the previous hearings is available to us,

especially the views of State and local government, it is not necessary

to repeat them. The present hearings, therefore, can be relatively

brief, and will comprise sessions this morning and tomorrow morning.

Without objection, I shall insert in the record statements filed with

the subcommittee in lieu of personal testimony. We are now ready to

proceed.

The first witness this morning was supposed to have been Congressman Fuqua, a Member of the House from Florida. Congressman Fuqua has long been interested in a mid-decade census. I think he was

one of the first and most active Members to realize the need for such a

census.

I will ask unanimous consent that the committee include a statement of his testimony, and we regret that he cannot be here because

of his interest in this matter, one that is particularly vital to the State

of Florida, which has in the last few years, as we all know, seen a

tremendous influx of people into that State.

(The statement referred to follows.)

STATEMENT OF HON. DON FUQUA. A REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS FROM

THE STATE OF FLORIDA

Mr. Ohairmnn, few people in this day and time doubt the wisdom of conducting

a census.

It is a necessity.

Just as the need for conducting a census existed at the formation of this Nation, so does the modern age require census taking at more frequent intervals

than before.

This fact is so obvious to me that I find it hard to understand the objections.

Neither Government nor business can move intelligently ahead without accurate

and up-to-date data on which to base decisions. That data is not available to the

people of this Nation, 5 years after a census is taken.

We are an expanding and a mobile nation, with 20 percent of our people changing their address each year. This trend will continue and accelerate.

However, when it was first determined that a census was to be conducted once

each decade, this was an agriculturally oriented society, with the population remaining fairly stable

It is my considered judgment that the holding of a census every 5 years would

in actuality save money for the American people. With this accurate data, It

w

Tould not be guesswork in planning and programing, as it is so much today.

It is almost humorous, but in reality pathetic, that we debate programs in the

Congress in 1967, based on census figures collected in 1959. Since 1900, we have

seen an increase of over 16 million in population.

This committee has heard testimony from large business organizations that

figures taken in a census, are of little value 5 years later for purposes of planning and expansion, so the figures of universities or chambers of commerce must

be used. These figures are merely educated guesses, but certainly they are more

valuable and accurate than 5-year-old national census figures.

Take an exnmple I used when Introducing my bill on this subject in the 89th

Congress. A national figure on school dropouts of 28 percent may be alarming,

but it is of little value to a mayor, a Governor, or a Federal official who wants

to know whether the rate in his particular area is 10 percent or 70 percent. The

latter, I am told, is common in our larger city slum areas.

The American farm population declined 21 percent from I960 to 1965. Where

these farm families went and what happened to them will not be apparent to us

until 1970, long after the event.
MID-DECADE CENSUS 5

It is important that we know where the American people are moving. Is it to

the city or to the suburb J

By 1972 the United States will have to provide 12 million more jobs for young

people coming into the labor market. Where the people go will determine the

markets.

American business and Government needs to know this information, and they

must have it much more rapidly than in the past. I feel that a mid-decade census

will give us this information, and that it is not a luxury, but a necessity that it

be obtained.

The time to act is now, so that we might prepare logically and with forethought for a mid-decade census in 1975. We have taken too long already to resolve this question.

Let us not see the mistake of the sixities, in not having passed such a measure,

become the mistake of the seventies. A bill providing for a mid-decade census

should be given priority in this session of Congress.

Mr. GREEN. Our first witness will be Dr. Raymond T. Bowman,

Assistant Director for Statistical Standards, Bureau of the Budget.

Dr. Bowman, it is a pleasure to have you here this morning.

STATEMENT OF DR. RAYMOND T. BOWMAN, ASSISTANT DIRECTOR

FOR STATISTICAL STANDARDS, BUREAU OF THE BUDGET

Dr. BOWMAN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I have a quite brief statement, Mr. Chairman, which, if I may, I would like to read, because

I think it summarizes the main points that I would like to make.

Mr. GREEN. Please proceed.

Mr. BOWMAN. I welcome this opportunity to appear before your

subcommittee to discuss proposed legislation providing for a middecade census of population, unemployment, and housing starting in

the year 1975. Particular reference is made to H.R. 7659, introduced

by the chairman of this subcommittee.

H.R. 7659 and several identical bills (H.R. 7660-7665, 7871, 7876,

8005, 8040, and 8488) are consistent with the administration's objectives and are supported by the Bureau of the Budget. Specifically,

H.R. 7659 directs the Secretary of Commerce to take a census in 1975

and every 10 years thereafter as of the 1st day of April.

The language I would like to emphasize is: "* * * in such form and

content as he may determine, taking into account the extent to which

current information is available. The mid-decade census shall make

maximum use of sampling procedure consistent with statistical needs."

This language of the bill, which I have emphasized, has great significance and is a major reason for the Bureau of the Budget's support of H.R. 7659. It permits maximum flexibility in conducting a

mid-decade statistical effort in order to insure that high priority data

needs are met in the most efficient and effective manner. A mid-decade

census should not be thought of as being necessarily a repetition of the

type of census which has been traditionally taken at the beginning of

each decade. Rather, it should be considered an occasion for appraising unsatisfied needs for information at the halfway point in the

decade and developing the means to meet those needs in the most efficient and economic manner.

Satisfaction of certain important data needs in existence at the

mid-decade may possibly require a complete enumeration, but we

believe it undesirable to require that the scope and content of the

mid-decade statistical effort must duplicate that of the decennial cen78-232•67 2
6 MID-DECADE CENSUS

sus. It is essential to sound administration of the statistical system

that options remain open•both as to content and coverage.

It is well recognized that a complete census enumeration•a 100-

percent count of all the individuals and housing units in the Nation•

serves many useful purposes in addition to the basic constitutional

requirement for decennial reapportionment. One of them is that comparisons can be made between and among areas all over the country

because all the Nation's population and housing are counted simultaneously. Another, is that figures can be compiled for very small

areas•figures which can be used for a variety of purposes at all

levels of government and by private individuals and organizations.

In cities, information, if considered desirable, can be tabulated for

areas as small as blocks.

The limitations of a complete census are less well recognized. They

are nonetheless important. For example, it does not appear feasible

to ask as large a number of questions in such a census as in a sample

survey. The burden on the public generally and the strain on the collection procedure is great. Thus, in a complete enumeration census,

we get a relatively small amount of information which is available

in great geographic detail. Even in the decennial censuses we depend

upon samples of the population and of housing to develop much of

the significant socioeconomic information found in decade census

publications. Our data needs in the future may require exploration

of problems in depth•which will require greater use of samples.

In addition, the massiveness of the census undertaking itself requires

an extensive period of time to collect and process information.

In 1962 I urged a very considerable expansion of annual sample

surveys to meet growing information needs. Some of these proposals

have become facts, and still other possibilities have opened. But many

of my 1062 proposals. I am sorry to say, have not been implemented,

primarily for lack of financing. Developments have been taking place

which make some of the alternatives or supplements to a complete

enumeration look even more promising than they did in 1962 and I

believe that the subcommittee will be interested in a summary of them.

In the first place, the series of annual population estimates which

the Census Bureau publishes has been strengthened materially. Estimates of State populations are now available annually, not only for

total population, but also for broad age groups and for households.

Projections of State populations are also being made. A program

for preparing annual population estimates for standard metropolitan

statistical areas and their component counties has been started and

now includes 55 areas comprising 188 counties. These are all the

standard metropolitan statistical areas of 500,000 population or more

and include 45 percent of the U.S. population. Future work along

this line will be greatly facilitated if the Census Bureau's current

research into the possibility of developing annual county estimates

from IBS data proves successful. Such a source would facilitate not

only population estimates for each county, but income distributions as

well.

Secondly, the interest among the States in the preparation of annual

population estimates for counties is growing rapidly. We have encouraged the Bureau of the Census to discuss with States the possibility of developing a cooperative program which would yield annual
MID-DECADE CENSUS 7

estimates of population by county, prepared by States by methods

which produce compatible data, and which would be collectively published by the Bureau of the Census. If these efforts bear fruit, the

result will be a continuing, annually updated series reporting the current population of each county in the United States.

Thirdly, it is possible that with the use of mailing lists, and a mailout, mailback technique now being developed in preparation for the

1970 census, that really large-scale sample surveys may be much more

readily undertaken. Such surveys have several advantages over a complete enumeration•they can be undertaken more frequently and they

can probably collect more data. With a smaller number of households

to be covered, more adequate followup procedures can be used. Although such surveys suffer from the disadvantage that they cannot

provide information for very small areas, such as city blocks, they

may be designed to provide data on relatively small areas. Even now

Congress is considering a budget estimate for a large-scale survey

which would provide information for each State, for each city of

100,000 or more, and for each standard metropolitan statistical area.

And within cities of 250,000 or more, separate data would be provided

for areas of major concentrations of poverty. The plans call tor questions on a number of items which are probably not suitable for inclusion in a complete enumeration census.

Finally, with the development of mail enumeration techniques and

the availability of an "address register" and geographic codes on computer tape, it will be easier to pinpoint surveys to those geographic

areas for which data are currently most in demand. Or selected "problem" areas might be enumerated completely while samples are used for

other areas.

There may well be other methods for supplying some of the data

needed between decennial censuses, ways which have not yet been

seriously considered, or even proposed. In looking to the future, we

can be sure of at least two things: neither information-handling technology nor statistical techniques will stand still. We must not bind

ourselves too rigidly to any given technique of data collection.

This proposed legislation recognizes that the statistical effort in

1975 will be an undertaking many times larger than the present sample

surveys which provide little beyond national data. I should, however,

point out that Budget Bureau support of this legislation does not

imply that such a major quinquennial effort will satisfy all the needs

for information required for the efficient operation of many economic

and social institutions, public and private. Many programs require

annual estimates on which to base goals and measure progress. A

?uinquennial benchmark may be better than a decennial benchmark

or making such current estimates, but it cannot replace them nor will

it make the improvement of annual data any the less necessary.

In summary, the technological advances possible in the near future,

with regard to the obtaining and processing of data, as well as the

growing emphasis on selected geographic and subject-matter areas

underscore the need to insure that a mid-decade census operation

retains flexibility, avoiding the rigidity imposed by a standardized

census approach.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
8 MID-DECADE CENSUS

Mr. GREEN. Thank you, Doctor. We certainly appreciate your coining this morning and testifying.

I would like, if I can, to ask you as a representative of the Bureau

of the Budget whether or not you feel that a mid-decade census, while

it may cost a considerable amount of money to take it, might not result in economy, in the actual saving of money by providing the information necessary for correct planning.

Dr. BOWMAN. Well, Mr. Chairman, I think my testimony does indicate that we have concluded that a major statistical effort atthe middecade does seem to us to be warranted. However, we are also pointing out as clearly as we can that that effort should not be frozen into

any particular kind of a census, but should await a better view of

exactly what it is we want to achieve with data gathering as we draw

closer to the mid-decade position. And I think this means that the

cost has got to be commensurate with the aims that we are trying to

serve and that in some instances it will not be necessary to take a complete enumeration of the population at the mid-decade, in other instances it may well be necessary; that we may be able to achieve our

purposes with a census at the mid-decade which may be considerably

different than the census at the decade beginning. I think that is the

main point.

We are now convinced that a major effort at the mid-decade in order

to update much of the information is necessary, and as long as it can

be kept flexible and not become frozen into any particular form of

a census we think the effort very desirable.

Mr. GREEN. You would not be opposed, though, if it was considered

necessary, if the statistical gap were considered to be so great because

of factors that maybe neither you nor I can envisage between now

and 1974 or 1975 that if it became necessary, you could well favor a

complete, full census in 1975 ?

Dr. BOWMAN. Certainly that choice is open as one of the possibilities.

Mr. GREEN. But the thing you are trying to urge upon us is to keep

an open mind and not to try to set down any sort ofrigid rules?

Dr. BOWMAN. That is correctMr. GREEN. Do you expect to see. in the 1970's the establishment of

State and city offices of statistical coordination that would enable the

States and cities to make more effective use of the census and other

Federal statistics ?

Dr. BOWMAN. Well, this certainly seems to be developing now, and

I believe that the organization of statistics in 1975 may be quite different than the way in which statistics are organized now, and I would

see considerable more interest in the State and local governments in

the use of statistical information both for planning purposes and for

their own government administration and determining of forward

plans.

This is one of the reasons why I would like to see our efforts kept

flexible, so that we don't just get into a system of doing something

every 5 years and then continue doing it that way irrespective or

whether that is meeting the particular needs or not. And I think the

cooperative program on population estimates that the census is trying

to work out with the States has a great deal of promise, as well as

the methods they are trying to develop for using other types of
MID-DECADE CENSUS 9

information to make estimates at, the county level, even estimates of

income distribution within the county as well as the county

population.

Mr. SCOTT. Mr. Chairman, would you yield for just a minute?

Mr. GREEN. I was just about to yield to Mr. Scott from Virginia.

But before I do I would like to, on behalf of myself, thank you for

vour thoughtful statement and very helpful testimony.

Mr. Scott,

Mr. SCOTT. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

On the point the chairman mentioned, Dr. Bowman, the State and

city offices, is it contemplated the State governments or the city governments would have census offices or that branches of the Federal

Government would be located within the States and cities?

Dr. BOWMAN. NO, there is nothing contemplated for the location

of additional census offices or governmental statistical offices as regional offices or as local offices of the Federal Government that I know

of at the present time. Although developments are now taking place,

in part supported by Federal funds, making it possible for State and

local governments to set up information centers and data centers for

use by State and local governments in carrying out their basic community functions.

Mr. SCOTT. Well, now in answer to the chairman's question, are you

saying there will not be branch offices of the Census Bureau in the

States and the cities, that if there are statistical offices for States and

cities, they will be branches of the State and city governments rather

than branches of the Federal Government? I am trying to get a definite answer from you, Doctor.

Dr. BOWMAN. Well, I will try to. So far as I know, the methods that

will be used in connection with the census will be just the establishment of whatever regional offices are necessary for the taking of the

census, and I know of no development at the present time which

would imply that the census will De taken through State and local

offices. But when we do take a census•I am sure Mr. Eckler can give

you more of the details of this than I can•whenever we take a census

we do establish certain relationships with the local communities.

But the basic effort is a Federal effort, not a State and local government effort,

Mr. SCOTT. Thank you, sir. Now going back for a moment to the

cost of the mid-decennial census, and the bearing it might have on

the regular 10-year census, do you have any estimate of the cost of

taking this census in 1975 ?

Dr. BOWMAN. Well, I can give you an estimate of what it would cost

if we were to take the same kind of census in 1975 as we are contemplating taking in 1970, and if we assume that we would make the estimate on the basis of prices as they exist today but make allowance for

the larger population in 1975 as contrasted with 1970,1 think the cost

of that kind of a census, a census that would be like the decade census

of popidation, housing, and unemployment, but excluding the agricultural census which is also taken at the beginning of the decade, the

cost would be somewhere between $175 and $200 million.

Mr. SCOTT. I was told, Doctor, by a member of my staff that in a

report on H.R. 6183 last year, a bill similar to the one that is being
10 MID-DECADE CENSUS

considered today, the cost was estimated to be $60 to $100 million and

now your thinking is $170 to $200 million. Are you familiar with

these other figures:

Dr. BOWMAN. Yes. I think so. The first thing we have to remember

is that they were then talking about prices of around 1905 and the

population of that year. Secondly, the $60 million estimate was really

nothing more than a head count of the population without any of the

details, demographic and social information normally collected in a

full-scale census.

The $100 million•and I think depending upon the view of the person making the estimate as to how full the census would be•the top

figure was somewhere between $100 and $135 million.

Mr. SCOTT. Well, now costwise what bearing would the taking of

the full census in 1975, or a mid-decennial census, have upon the regular census, if any ?

Dr. BOWMAN. I presume the question is if we were taking censuses

every 5 years.

Mr. SCOTT. Every 5 years, yes, sir. Would it be cheaper than just

taking them every 10 years each time they are taken?

Dr. BOWMAN. I think there would be some economy. I don't think

it would be particularly large. I think the major economy would come

from the fact•we are getting some of that economy now•that we

would hope that we were building up an address register which might

be easier to maintain between 5-year periods than it is to maintain

between 10-year periods. This would facilitate the taking of the census

and might cut down the cost a little bit.

But I would think that the cost of a census every 5 years is twice

the cost of a census every 10 years except for small economies and the

developments of new technology that might produce economies and l>e

advanced by more frequent census taking.

Mr. SCOTT. Well, now would you say then that it would cost approximately twice as much if you took them every 5 years as it would

if the census was taken every 10 years ? Isthat what you imply ?

Dr. BOWMAN. I think that is the way it should be thought of.

Mr. SCOTT. I notice in your remarks you talk about annual census

through the IKS. Is that the Internal Revenue Service data?

Dr. BOWMAN. Yes.

Mr. SCOTT. HOW does that work ?

Dr. BOWMAN. Well, the Internal Revenue Service maintains a tape

of their master address file which has certain information on it. Now

this is not all the detailed information on the Internal Revenue tax

return.

Mr. SCOTT. What sort of information?

Dr. BOWMAN. This tape has the address of each filer of a return, the

number of his dependents, his marital status, and the adjusted gross

income.

Now it is hoped from the use of these tapes which make it possible

to tabulate the information for counties and perhaps even smaller

geographic; areas, it may be possible for the Census Bureau to make

county estimates of the population. By correlating this IRS information with other Census Bureau information on population, relationships will be brought to light which can be used to estimate countv

populations, and perhaps to also estimate in broad income classes
MiD-DECADE CENSUS 11

the proportion of the population of each county that falls in certain

income classes.

Mr. SCOTT. Well, when I heard you mention the Internal Revenue

data, Doctor, I was concerned both as to the privacy of information

on people's income tax returns and then the welfare insofar as census is concerned. This, I think, is confidential information in both instances as relates to the individual. You don't think that this would

harm any individual to have the Internal Revenue information go to

the Census Bureau ? Is it still confidential ?

Dr. BOWMAN. It is still confidential. In fact, major safeguards have

been built around making this information available to the Census

Bureau.

Now I think we all understand the Census Bureau's principles of

confidentiality are also very strict, and the Census Bureau does not

reveal any information about individuals.

Furthermore, special arrangements were made when this information was made available to the Census Bureau that its tabulation is

conducted only under strong surveillance from the Internal Revenue

Service itself, and that no use is made of the information that relates

to any individual.

Mr. SCOTT. Well, now is that information made available to any

other Government agency by the Census Bureau ?

Dr. BOWMAN. IRS data can be made available to other Government agencies under provisions of the law which basically require that

the President must issue an Executive order making the information

available to another Government agency, and then

Mr. SCOTT. Let me interrupt just a minute. If the Department of

Justice were to call up and ask for information could they obtain it

from you, from the Census Bureau ?

Dr. BOWMAN. From the Census Bureau, no.

Mr. SCOTT. Could they obtain it from Internal Revenue, or do you

know?

Dr. BOWMAN. The Internal Revenue Service transfer of information would have to be under Executive order of the President and under regulations prescribed under the Executive order by the Commissioner of Internal Revenue.

I wouldn't be able to answer that question positively as to whether

there are conditions under which the Department of Justice may get

it, but they couldn't get it from the Census Bureau. That I can say

positively.

Mr. SCOTT. NOW you have mentioned the cities with major concentrations of poverty. What does that mean? Why is this being done,

the census of the cities where there is a major concentration of poverty ?

If you just bear with me, Mr. Chairman, that is the last question.

Dr. BOWMAN. Well, the point I was trying to make is that at the

present time major efforts are being made to see if we can lick the

problem of poverty. One of the areas of poverty is in some of our large

cities. There is interest, therefore, in knowing more about the conditions in the cities, particularly in those areas of cities where we

know poverty is concentrated.

I was making the point that with the survey that we are proposing

to the Congress for 19G8. and is now before the Congress, we are contemplating a 3 million•I think it is a little under 3 million household
12 MID-DECADE CENSUS

sample, and I was trying to make the point that even with that small

a sample we are ahle to obtain a great deal of information for all the

States of the Union, information for all of the large cities of the

Nation, the important metropolitan areas of the Xafion, and even

within certain cities we are able to get information from smaller areas

within the cities where, we have a particular focus of interest: namely,

in this case on poverty.

Mr. SCOTT. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Mr. GREEN. Thank you, Mr. Scott.

Doctor, before T yield to my colleague from Texas, your emphasis has

really been on flexibility, and I would like to just go back for a minute

and ask you a brief question or two about some of your answers to

Mr. Scott's questions.

With your emphasis on flexibility and your urging ns not to adopt

any sort of rigid form for a 1975 census, don't von think that it is

possible that questions could be asked in the regular decennial census

that, may not need to be asked in the mid-decennial census, and thereby

the cost would certainly not necessarily just be doubled because we are

taking twice as many censuses?

Dr. BOWMAN. This is certainly a possibility that I would hope

would be held open, and this is one of the things that I am urging, yes.

Mr. GREEN. And is it not a fact that some of the estimates for the

mid-decade census, particularly in light of the language which you

have highlighted in your testimony, that the mid-decade census shall

make maximum use of sampling procedures and consistent with statistical needs, is that not some indication and have not reliable estimates of the cost of the mid-decade census based on language like this

in the bill ranged around the $70 million figure that Mr. Scott alluded

to earlier?

Dr. BOWMAN. Yes, they have, and this is one reason why the Bureau of the Budget favors the language in the bill, localise it allows us

to rake advantage of this degree of flexibility.

Mr. GREEN. Isn't this the reason why the Bureau of the Budget

lias withdrawn its previous opposition, or certainly one of the reasons?

Dr. BOWMAN. This is certainly one of the reasons, yes.

Mr. GREEN. Mr. White.

Mr. WHITE. Mr. Bowman, following Mr. Scott's comments and

questions, I would sort of go the other way a little bit. We are trying

to hold down cost and yet gain information without prying into privacy. Is it possible to provide a system whereby you could have, say,

certain compulsory questions and then some optional questions submitted to the general public so that in the mid-decade census when they

turn in their income tax return we could get a good sampling from

over the country of these questions that are important and cut down

considerably on cost ?

Dr. BOWMAN. I think those measures or those methods were contained within my statement when I indicated there are a variety of

things that are being considered, some of which have been proposed,

some of which may not have been.

But I am glad you also added the other statement. We always want

to examine these methods both with reference to the effect it has upon
MID-DECADE CENSUS 13

the population with regard to the invasion of privacy, and the soundness and validity of the data that we will be developing for use by

the country.

Mr. WHITE. Well, now in that case, I refer to the bill, and I am

wondering on page 2 when it says "census shall be taken as of the

1st day of April, shouldn't that be as of the 30th day of April so that

you could make it coincidental with the time of the income tax return

plus whatever extra days that might be required by the return date

falling on Sunday.

Dr. BOWMAN. Well, the April date does have the advantage of being

a t ime of the year when people are more or less around and can be contacted. It also has the advantage, if we, are collecting income data, in

the fact that they are at the present time preparing their income tax

returns and know what their income is. And I don't have a strong

opinion now as to whether or not the last of April would be better than

the 1st of April, but it seemed to me even for your plan, even if the

enumeration had been taken on the 1st of April the income would

relate to the previous year, and if records were going to be used from

other sources for the obtaining of that income, even though the income

tax return was filed somewhat later, it would still apply to the previous year.

Mr. WHITE. Well, the census should be taken, and if anyone else

interprets this the same way, perhaps it would be letter to put it April

15 or 30 so that you could be flexible, and include it in the income tax

return•be filed as of April 15. or whatever extra -2 days there might

be if it falls on the weekend. That is my point.

A further question I have, has there been consideration of taking

the census by means of IBM punchcards so that the person that is

interviewing or the person who is answering could punch various

items and therebycurtail drastically the cost of tabulation?

Dr. BOWMAN. Well, the census is now being taken by use of a form

that meets most of these purposes. There is a device which the census

now uses in which the schedule is made out in such a way by filling in

certain dots, that the machine reads the schedule and puts this information directly on to magnetic tape for elect ronic processing.

There are difficulties with this if the. householder is going to fill it

out. A questionnaire designed in this way may require several pages to

include all the questions in a census. The respondent household may be

discouraged by the 10 or 15 pages, even though most households will

only be asked to fill in a certain portion and might, therefore, not cooperate in filling out the questionnaire. This is one of the things that

we have to wrestle with.

But the sort of device that you are talking about is now actively

being used by the Census Bureau, and I am sure you recognize that

historically the Census Bureau was a developer of the punchcard and

associated mechanical tabulation equipment and the Government is

keeping up with modern technology.

Mr. WHITE. How many pages do you contemplate for the middecade census?

Dr. BOWMAN. Well, we really aren't contemplating a schedule for

the mid-decade census now. We are contemplating a schedule for the

1970 census of population.

78-232•67 3
14 MID-DECADE CENSUS

Mr. WHITE. HOW many pages are in the 1970?

Dr. BOWMAN. I don't know that I have counted the pages. Miss

Martin, could you answer that question ?

Miss MARTIN. It depends on whether it is fixed for this kind of machine that, you were talking about. It is approximately the same number of questions as before, Dut it takes a lot more space. 1 think about

•20 pages.

Dr. BOWMAN. This illustrates my point. Although we are not asking

significantly different questions this time than we did in the 1960

population•some•if we try to use a scheme whereby the entire

questionnaire is filled in by the person putting in solid lines within

a little circle it might run 20 pages.

This procedure takes up a lot of space, and it may scare people

in a self-enumeration schedule even though it should not. Let me

illustrate by assuming we want to obtain a person's date of birth.

Well, you have to have enough circles to take care of each one of

the years for possible date of birth, and while he is only going to

fill in three or four circles you have to have more paper on which

he can select the circles he wants to fill in. The census is wrestling

with a very difficult job of seeing how it wants to design the 1970

census schedule and what procedures it wants to use in order to keep

the census cost to an absolute minimum.

I think that is another reason why we don't want to freeze the

1975 census, because we are learning new technologies all the time

and we may be able to achieve our purpose with less burden on response on the individual, with quicker tabulation of the final results,

and by restricting our questions to those areas where there is the

greatest amount of interest.

Mr. WHITE. Well, I know you are still studying in depth this subject at this jwint. If you were going to make a guess at this time,

with the evidence that you have, what system do you think would

probably be best for taking a mid-decade census?

Dr. BOWMAN. Well, I hope that one thing we will be able to do

at the mid-decade is to use with greater efficiency some of the methods

we are developing for the 1970 census. You remember, this will be

the first census which we are attempting to take on what is called

a mail-out mail-back questionnaire.

Mr. WHITE. The 1975?

Dr. BOWMAN. The 1970 census, and we will learn some things in

taking that census which 1 hope we could apply to any effort we

make in 1975, even though that effort might not be a complete duplicate of what we did in 1970. And all I can say is that we are doing

our very best to keep up with all the technological developments

and all of the methods that seem to promote an economical census

taking and tabulation of the information.

Mr. WHITE. Are you supplementing these with interviewers or

strictly by mail-out mail-back?

Dr."BOWMAN. We are supplementing. If a questionnaire does not

come back an interviewer will have to get the information. If a questionnaire comes back but is not complete an interviewer may have to

go out, or it may be that the information may be obtained by telephone.
MID-DECADE CENSUS 15

Mr. WHITE. I see. Thank you very much.

Mr. GREEN. Mr. Thompson.

Mr. THOMPSON. Mr. Bowman, I certainly feel that the census if

we take one in 1975 should be one that would be flexible in order

that we can project and plan on employment trends and occupational

needs in various areas.

I must admit, however, that I am concerned by the prominence you

gave in your prepared statement to the mail-out mail-back technique.

You made three major points in your prepared text, and this was your

third point, taking up approximately a page. My concern stems from

the fact that requiring a person to mail back to you something requires

an affirmative act by that person, and I have some questions in my own

mind as to whether or not we are going to end up with a true representative sample even if you do follow up with interviews in trying to

locate some of the other people.

Would it not be possible to better use sampling techniques based on

some of the polling techniques that have been developed by some of

the professional pollsters and not contact all of the people, but contact

representative samples in trying to determine specific aims for specific

areas? Would this not be a letter system?

Dr. BOWMAN. Well, I think this is certainly what we are contemElating in the testimony that I have given here, and I think may not

e as clear as it should be, that even in the decade census the only information that is collected from every household in the United States

is a count of the people, their age, sex, race, and marital status and a

few items of information on housing. All the other items of information are collected from a 25-percent sample. So even in the decade

census we do use sampling to a very considerable extent for all of the

detailed information. We do use the polling technique that you are

discussing.

I have a strong conviction that we can make even farther use of

sampling for some of our purposes at the mid-decade, and that is what

I am pleading for in my testimony here, to keep that flexible.

Mr. THOMPSON. Well, let me just reemphasize, the point of my

concern is that if too much reliance is placed on mailing lists and mailout and mail-back techniques that I think that very definitely we can

end up with figures that, while they may be impressive, will not be representative, because here again it is going to require the affirmative act

of a person to complete the questionnaire and send it back in, and there

are going to be some who will do this but you are not going to end up

with representative samples. It is going to be overbalanced.

The point I am making is it is going to be overbalanced in that the

people who will fill out a questionnaire and send it back will certainly

do so. Then you may try to find and catch some of the others, but you

will not catch as many.

T)r. BOWMAN. The Census Bureau is very careful on this point.

Although it is a mail-out mail-back questionnaire, they know every

address to which they have mailed a questionnaire and they intend to

get a schedule for every household. If the mailing was to a scientifically drawn sample the number of nonresponses must be reduced to an

absolute minimum, none, if possible. In other words, an enumerator

will call on every household from whom we do not get a return and
16 MID-DECADE CENSUS

will fill out a schedule by the same interviewing technique as would

have been used if we hadn't used the mail-out mail-back.

We are certainly 100 percent with the point you are making. In

order for the sample to \>e representative we must be able to get the

information from the people selected in the sample, not from anyone

else, because that would bias the sample. And great care is being exercised to make, certain that the nonresponse is an absolute minimum.

a matter of not being able to find the people or it turning out, let's

say, that the dwelling was vacant and there really wasn t anybody

there to reply to the schedule.

Mr. THOMSON. Mr. Chairman, I would only like to make one further point, and I am certain that you people in the Census Bureau

are fully aware of this. But. it is my thought in supporting this legislation•and I certainly do support it, having authored an identical

bill•that this will enable the Bureau to sample on a number of factors, and I hope that it will not mean that you will go out and try to

contact every single household, but that you will attempt to have it

as diverse as possible, using scientifically designed sampling techniques and using as small a sample as possible in order to give you

true representative results.

In other words, I would like to have as much information collected

as you possibly could by contacting the fewest number of people and

still assure a certain degree of accuracy.

Dr. BOWMAN. My interests and your interests are very close on this

matter.

Mr. GREEN. Thank you, Mr. Thompson.

Doctor, once again we thank you very much.

Dr. BOWMAN. Thank you very much.

Mr. GREEN. Our next witness this morning is Dr. A. Ross Eckler,

Director of the Bureau of Census.

We certainly want to welcome you, Doctor. It is nice to have you

back before the subcommittee.

Dr. ECKLER. Thank you, sir.

Mr. GREEN. YOU may proceed whenever you are ready.

STATEMENT OF DR. A. ROSS ECKLER, DIRECTOR, BUREAU OF

THE CENSUS

Dr. ECKLER. First of all, I would like to introduce my colleague,

Dr. Conrad Taeuber, Assistant Director of the Census.

And before I start with my statement I would like to express appreciation to this committee, and your predecessors, Mr. Chairman, for

the assistance they have given us over a number of years in dealing

with a number of problems of very great concern ami importance to

us. We look forward to a continuation of these very helpful relationships.

My statement is comparatively short, and with your permission, I

will read it, Mr. Chairman.

Mr. GREEN. Yes, sir, please.

Dr. ECKLER. We are glad to appear again before this subcommittee

and to review the needs for a mid-decade census of population and

housing, and in particular to express our views regarding II.R. 7659.
MID-DECADE CENSUS 17

Nearly 2 years ago, when the subcommittee held hearings on II.R.

6183 and related bills, we pointed out that the Bureau had had many

requests for up-to-date information which it could not supply because

the latest census was then some 5 years old. We pointed out also that

many communities had arranged for special censuses at their own expense in order to provide information about their population growth.

In the course of the testimony, it was pointed out that in a number

of the programs which had been newly approved by the Congress

it was found necessary to use census information for program planning and distribution of funds, even though the information was

already some 5 years old, and condit ions in many of the areas of special

interest had changed significantly. In the 2 years that have passed

since then, the needs for information have increased, but it has not

been possible to meet them with up-to-date statistics.

The needs for comprehensive census reports more often than once

every 10 years have been stated many times. The Federal, State, and

locai governments need this information to assist in the efficient administration of many of their programs and to help in the planning

of programs and facilities. At the last healings at which a mid-decade

census was discussed, a statistician from the American Telephone &

Telegraph Co. illustrated the extensive use of census figures in the

amount and location of business investments when he stated that his

company was then investing some $3.5 billion annually, and that upto-date information on the movement and characteristics of the population bad a direct effect on the efficiency with which these investments

are made. Billions of dollars worth of plant and other facilities are

located each year in the light of what are believed to be the trends

of the population of individual areas. The quality and the currency

of the information which is available can be an important element in

the profitability of many of these investments.

The Bureau provides a service in taking a census of any local community which wishes to have an interim census and is prepared to

pay for it. Since 1960 we have taken special censuses of 1.112 communities and 46 counties. A special census of one entire State was

taken and inquiries have been made regarding the possibility of several other statewide censuses. The special censuses taken to date have

included more than 24 million people. Generally they supply only

limited information on the numbers of people and omit many significant items of information which an included in the regular census.

Seventeen cities of 100,000 or over were included. Of these, seven

experienced population losses since 1980, though generally their suburbs had gained. Moreover, there had l>een significant changes in the

characteristics of their population. The general pattern was that the

in-inigration of Negroes more than offset the out-migration of whites

and that the number of children of school age increased more rapidly

than the total population.

To meet critical needs, we have also made local sample surveys in

a few cities. These have found that while conditions generally improved for the residents, there were depressed areas within the cities

which had not shared fully in the improvements and somewhere there

has been deterioration since 1060.
18 MID-DECADE CENSUS

U.K. 7659 wisely leaves to later determination the decision as to the

precise form and content of the md-decade census. The full extent of

sampling to l>e used in 1975 should not be determined in advance, but

can best be decided in the light of the needs at the time and the availability of information from other sources. We fully concur with the

provision of the bill which calls for the maximum use of sampling consistent witli statistical needs.

Governors, mayors, businessmen, local and regional planning officials, persons working in health, education, welfare, and research almost unanimously agreed in previous hearings that changes in the

United States are occurring so rapidly that a population census taken

only once every 10 years is no longer adequate to meet the Nation's

needs. There is no reason to believe that the need for more frequent

censuses will be any less in the fulure, but, on the contrary, it is sure

to continue to grow.

Business planning is increasingly based upon information on the

numbers and characteristics of the people in an area as a basis for

plant location, and planning of production and sales.

The number of people in the United States has increased by nearby

20 million since 1960, but this growth has not come evenly year by

year, nor has it come evenly in all parts of the country. As in the past,

the States have continued to grow at widely varying rates. According

to our estimates, California continues to lead the other States in the

net gain in population with an increase of 3.2 million persons. In the

same periocl of time, New York has grown by only about half that

number, with an increase of 1.5 million. Texas is the only other State

which gained as many as a million, and Florida gained nearly a million. New Jersey, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, Georgia, and

Maryland each gained between half a million and a million in that

time; Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Alabama gained about half a million. At the other end of the scale is West Virginia, which continued

to lose population as it did during the 1950's. Maine, Vermont, North

Dakota, Idaho, Montana, Rhode Island, Nebraska, and Alaska each

gained fewer than 50,000. Iowa, South Dakota, and Wyoming show

virtually no change during that period.

The unevenness in the growth of States has its counterpart in the

changes within the States. For the country as a whole we estimate

that the metropolitan areas have accounted for about 85 percent of

the total population increase since 1960 and that most of this increase

has been outside the major cities. These are net changes which are the

result of substantial movements in both directions and which may be

responsible for some significant changes in the characteristics of the

population in individual areas. The central cities of our metropolitan

areas had an increase of about 24 percent since 1960 in their Negro

population, and at the same time their white population declined by

2.5 percent. These estimates of national changes are the result of many

diverse changes in individual cities, and even in areas within the cities.

However, the local changes in particular areas cannot be known without the detailed statistics which a census provides.

Because of the differences in the annual number of babies born in

recent years, there will be some sharp changes in the age composition of the population in the future. The babies born in 1947, shortly
MID-DECADE CENSUS 19

after World War II, are reaching their 20th birthdays this year, and

the number of marriages is already increasing. We expect that despite a currently declining birth rate, the increasing number of

women in the young childbearing ages will result in an increase in

the annual number of babies in the early 1970's. Early in the 1950?s

the number of babies went above the 1947 level, and from 1954-64

there were more than 4 million babies born each year. The peak

came in 1957 and again in 1960, when about 4,250,000 were born.

Those babies will be 18-year-olds in 1975 and 1978, and shortly thereafter they will most likely add still further to the number of babies

each year. These changes in the number born each year will have

a profound effect on family formation, the need for schools, and servviees to children in the 1970's and 1980's, and the rates of change in

the numbers of persons in the working ages. The effects are likely

to be very different in different parts of the country.

With improved communication, and presumably improved means

of matching jobs and workers, it is entirely likely that the future

mobility of the population will increase over the level at the present

time, and that increases and declines of population in small areas

may occur more rapidly than has been the case up to now.

We cannot foretell what problems will call for new and up-todate statistics in 1975, but the experience of recent years has repeatedly shown that needed data were not available on a current basis.

In 1905, when the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare

needed information on the number of school age children in families

with low incomes by counties, it was necessary to go back to 1960,

even though it was known that there had been important changes

since that date. The location and characteristics of school dropouts

were known only for I960 and here, too, there have been significant

changes since then. The housing situation in urban areas, the number

and location of broken families, the concentration of families with

low income in certain areas of our large cities and in some rural

areas, the educational and employment status and income of the residents of Appalachia are known as of 1960, but there is no information which makes it possible to take into account the subsequent

changes in counties or parts of counties. Information on these and

many other topics was urgently needed by the mid-1960's, but it was

not available and a variety of means had to be developed to fill in

the gaps. In a society which is changing as rapidly as ours, public

agencies are in need of up-to-date information to guide the allocation of money and efforts. The census is an important tool to help

pinpoint the developments at specific locations.

The importance of the legislation under consideration lies in the

fact that economical planning of so large an operation as a census,

which reaches into every part of every community in the United

States, calls for considerable leadtime. The knowledge that a census

is to be taken in 1975, as well as in 1970, would contribute significantly to effective scheduling of the work for the decade. We have

had a similar experience in relation to the economic censuses, the

census of governments, and the census of agriculture, all of which are

now on a quinquennial basis. There is every reason to believe that

the experience would be repeated in relation to the census of population and housing.
20 MID-DECADE CENSUS

We recommend approval of the bill.

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Mr. GREEN. Thank you, Doc-tor.

You said just a second ago that public agencies are in need of upto-date information to guide the allocation of money. Do you have any

estimate of the amount of funds that are distributed annually on the

basis of population ?

Dr. ECKI.ER. Federal funds, Mr. Chairman ?

Mr. GREEN. Yes. In fact, 1 don't know whet her you have information

on the States. If you have information on the way the States allocate

their money, if they are going at it on the basis of population, I think

that would also be interesting. 1 think the point is that there are probably large amounts of funds that are distributed on the basis of

population and it is difficult, I should think, with inadequate statistics

to do this properly. But we would appreciate it if you have an estimate

of the amount of funds that are distributed on the basis of population.

Dr. ECKI.ER. My estimate is that out of a total of some 18 billion

Federal funds there may be something like 5 billion which depend

to some extent on population. I think it is not correct to say that population is the only factor in all these, but it is a factor used to some

decree, for perhaps something like S billion.

Mr. GREEK. Five billion I

Dr. ECKLER. Five billion, yes. In connection with the States the total

distributed is probably somewhat similar, but I am not able to give a

figure on the extent to which population is used to some extent.

I might note that the very considerable volume of special censuses

we have taken in States like Illinois and Xew York and other areas

is due to the fact that the higher population base that the communit ies

achieve gives them a larger proportion of the State revenues. That is

a very important fact, but I don't have figures on the proportion of ihe

State funds which depend in some part on population.

Mr. GREEN. You proposed. Doctor, a sample household survey for

1068 which I understand will provide statistics for the cities and the

States. My question is would a number of surveys of this kind be more

useful than a mid-decade census?

Dr. ECKI.ER. It is my judgment that it would not be more useful, but

that there is a very real sense in which these kinds of activities

supplement each other.

The mid-decade census that we are talking about is one which has

great flexibility. It might be based on a very large sample, it might

involve complete coverage, depending on the needs at the time.

For example, the 1968 sample survey will give population figures,

but with some degree of margin of error, for cities of 100,000. It will

not give information for smaller subdivisions. There will be vast numbers of types of information needed for smaller places which could lie

met bv a mid-decade census.

So I believe these two activities could b" thought of as supplementing each other, working out the best combination that seems desirable

in the light of the needs of the 1970's.

Mr. GREEN. Would a mid-decade census replace any of the censuses

that are now taken ?

Dr. ECKLER. I shouldn't regard it as replacing any of them because

there is
MID-DECADE CENSUS 21

Mr. GREEN. Bender them unnecessary, I guess that is what I meant

to say.

Dr. ECKLER. It might be that some of the special censuses for which

States contract with us would be eliminated because they would have,

up-to-date information on the population of all their subdivisions. A

State which might call for a special census would not need it under

these circumstances.

There is a 5-year census taken in Massachusetts. Whether they

would decide not to carry theirs out in light of this I don't know. I

should think it would be a reasonable prospect that they might not

want to.

Mr. GREEN. What do you estimate the cost of the mid-decade census

to be?

Dr. ECKLER. This is, of course, a difficult figure to estimate because

first we have to make an assumption as to whether there will be com-

(>lete coverage or not. If we assume there there will be at least on some

>asis a complete coverage of the population, and if we assume that

the present prices continue, we might have a range from something

like $70 million to $180 million, I woidd say. That would be at the

one extreme a very simple head count with just three or four facts

regarding each person, and at the other extreme a census comparing

in detail to what we are proposing for 1970.

Mr. GREEN. YOU mentioned earlier in your testimony that you take

various, and actually many, censuses for different local communities

throughout the country. Do you think that possibly by providing for

u mid-decade census that we are in fact going to be able to save some

of our local communities a great deal of money, or at least the money

they are now spending to take these censuses? Do we have an idea of

the estimate or the amount of money it costs to take these censuses

throughout the country? How much do our States and local communities put out each year to try and gather information which they

need and which they might be provided if we took a mid-decade

census?

Dr. ECKLER. The total number of people that we have counted during the present decade is something like 25 million roughly, and I

believe the estimate of cost might be something like a total of $7 million or $8 million for that group.

Now I should think that some part of this would be unnecessaiy if

you had a mid-decade census. However, in some of these States, localities are changing so rapidly that they may take censuses within a

year or two of each other. So there would still be some rapidly growing place where it would be worthwhile to continue to take additional

censuses.

But one advantage of this, if it were on a complete basis, is that

States would then have an equitable basis for the distribution of funds

at mid-decade. As it is now, the ones which trrow will ask for a census

and get a higher proportion, but the ones which are not certain whether

thev have grown or not and the ones which have lost will continue to

stav with the I960 distribution. If you had a complete mid-decade distribution we believe there would be a more equitable distribution of

funds at that time.

There would be some very definite gains to the States from the availability of that information.

7S-232•67 1
22 MID-DECADE CENSUS

Mr. GREEN. Doctor, if this legislation is enacted and a mid-decade

census in 1975 becomes a reality, how will this affect your planning for

the 1970 census, and in fact, will it affect your planning for the 1970

census ?

Dr. ECKLER. I believe that the main ways in which it might affect

1970 would be that it would be advantageous to know that there is to be

a program of this sort in the middle of the 1970\s and decisions regarding the mailing list might be modified in tlie light of that. The way in

which we leave the mailing list, the provision we have for keeping it

up to date, and so forth, might be very definitely affected by the

knowledge of this big program coming in tlie middle of the decade.

There is another point which perhaps is worth considering, and that

is that to some extent the mid-decade census might take certain kinds of

questions different from those at the decennial date and people would

be willing to defer a question which they are pushing very hard for

1970 with the idea that perhaps it could be included in 1975 and thus

spread the load of work a bit. I think that could be an advantageous

feature.

Mr. GREEN. I had intended, Doctor, to ask you some questions relating to mailing to begin with. In the interest of time I am not going to

ask some of the questions I intended to ask. I think we can probably

get to next month in hearings on the 1970 census questions as to whether or not a social security number should be included in the census. And

I just wanted to know briefly before I concluded questioning how your

Xew Haven sample has gone, your New Haven census, and on the

basis of that do you think that you have gathered information that

would support your desire to mail in the census in 1970?

Dr. ECKLER. Mr. Chairman, I believe that we do not have any reservations about the desirability of the use of mails, the mail-out. niailback procedure. The Xew Haven response is not yet complete. We are

not going to have all our results for sometime yet, and at the present

time we have received back about 80 percent, very close to 80 percent of

the forms which were mailed out.

As Dr. Bowman indicated, we do have a very careful followup

procedure. We have a complete list of the dwelling places, the addresses, which was obtained commercially, and then was brought to

date by the postal carriers, checked over two different times, so that

we believe that AVC have a very complete list of addresses.

Now we will follow up on the remaining 20 percent by the traditional door to door canvass. We will also follow up on those whose

returns were not in completely satisfactory form, if they left out

some questions or were confused; so that work will go on.

But we believe this is definitely advantageous and will give us a

better total product than we have had before.

Mr. GREEN. I am not going to dwell on this now. As I have indicated, we would like to have hearings next month, and we would like

very much if you can come back and we can get into this whole

problem of what questions should be asked and how the census

should be taken.

I want to thank you for corning here today.

Mr. Scott.

Mr. SCOTT. Mr. Eckler, as I see the bill here, it indicates that the

census will be taken and the form will have such content as the
MID-DECADE CENSUS 23

Census Bureau may determine or the Secretary may determine. Now

I am concerned about this cost, and certainly I don't believe that

Congress should appropriate or should pass a bill without knowing

somewhat a little more closely than $70 million to $180 million.

That is a pretty wide range.

Now could you be a little more definite here as to the questions

that you at this time would expect to ask and what is in your mind

today? Would it be closer to the $70 million or to the $180 million?

Could you just comment on that a little bit?

Mr. ECKLKK. Mr. Congressman, I think it is extremely difficult to

attempt to project a situation ahead past the next census we are

going to take, when our minds are, of course, nowTlargely dwelling

upon the content of the 1970 census; and as the chairman has indicated, we will have shortly some discussions right here or in some

other room on the subject of the 1!)70 census. And until we are past

that and made our decisions there 1 think it is very difficult to make

estimates or guesses for 1975.

Mr. SCOTT. If I might interrupt there, Doctor, would you say that

if this bill is not passed for several years then you could give us more

definite information and we could pass the bill several years from

now!

Dr. ECKLER. Of course, we would then lose the advantage of the

planning of the work for the decade. If you would wait until 1972

or 1973 or 197-1 you would not have the advantage of the joint planning of 1970 and the 1975.

I might note that the $70 million figure that I gave is not an absolute floor for this. The language in this bill is such that the whole

purpose can be accomplished by a large sample. Xow if you are going

to open that question up you have a wide range of possibilities below

the $70 million figure.

Mr. Bowman mentioned a 1968 survey that is now being considered

by the Congress which has a total cost of $23 million. So the bill

should not be thought of, I believe, as committing the Congress to

an endorsement, of any particular range of expenditure. It leaves the

range quite open.

Now I might say I think I would only be less than candid if I

didn't note that in the earlier discussions of this same subject when we

had•I believe it is sometimes called the "bare bones" census•name,

age, sex, marital status, at the one extreme. At the other extreme

there is pretty much the full battery of questions relating to employment, occupation, education, income, marital status, family composition, and so forth. There seemed to be a great deal more support for

the more extensive set of questions. So I believe it would be fair to

note that there would be a great deal of demand and enthusiasm and

desire to have a considerable range of questions included, hut thai need,

I believe, could be met to a very great extent by a sample of the total

rather than having it on a hundred percent basis.

We are not proposing to have these types of questions in 1970 on

more than a 25-percent sample. We would not be forced in 1975 to

have even as much as a 25-percent sample if we didn't need it.

I would like to convey verv sincerely the impression that this is a

wide open area for estimates and projections.
24 MID-DECADE CENSUS

Mr, SCOTT. Well, I might comment, Dr. Eckler, that I am not prepared to support any hill that just gives blanket authority to an

executive branch department of our Government.

Now let me ask you, sir, you heard the comment with regard to

the use of Internal Revenue data and Dr. Bowman's comment with

regard to how it would work. Has vour Bureau ever made this Internal

Revenue data available to the Justice Department ?

Dr. ECKLER. XO, sir. We have not made their data, our data, or any

data pertaining to individuals of any sort available to any other

agency.

Mr. SCOTT. Thank you, sir. Now on these special censuses that are

sometimes taken by the Bureau, something came across my desk from

the American Legion, I believe, with regard to a veterans census, some

sample that the Bureau was making. Could vou tell us just what

that is?

Dr. ECKLER. From time to time our sample surveys and also our

censuses have, questions pertaining to veteransstatus of the population,

and I believe this recent correspondence that I noted also pertains to

their interest in questions relating to veterans to lie included in a

forthcoming survey.

We have done a good deal of that in the past, we have worked

closely with the Veterans' Administration, and recosrnized that their

programs for administering the various medical and other programs

for veterans, require specific information, and we have tried to meet

that.

Mr. SCOTT. And who pays the cost of this, the Federal Government ?

Dr. ECKLER. The Veterans' Administration would contract with

us for the additional cost of including some information. If it is a

part of the census, whore we have a question on veterans, we would

have tabulations and certain information available at no cost to them,

but thev might want more detailed tabulations. Thev would pav for

that.

We have also had special supplements on the status of veterans

which have l>een included from time to time in our monthlv surveys,

and this is paid for on the basis of the out-of-pocket cost of carrying

out that supplement.

Mr. SCOTT. Doctor, the comments that Dr. Bowman made with

recard to census in the cities on the concentration of poverty, does

this in any way get in the Census Bureau into any philosophical concepts as to just what the Government should do or should not do for

the welfare of its citizens?

Dr. ECKLER. I don't think the collection of information involves

any philosophical determination. I believe that we would take the

position that regardless of what one's philosophy is as to what ought

to be done in these situations we omdit to know about them. We ought

to have information. And our primary role is to supply data on numbers and characteristics of people in different areas, and how the

situation has chanced. Those who have one particular political point

of view about this may decide one thing from these figures, those

with a different point of view will conclude just the opposite: and I

think this is the purpose of our figures, to help illuminate many social

and economic questions.
MID-DECADE CENSUS 25

Mr. SCOTT. Let nie ask you just one short question then. What is

the estimate of the Census Bureau as to the Nation's population in

107")?

Dr. ECKLER. Not far from 220 million people.

Mr. SCOTT. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Mr. GREEX. Thank you, Mr. Scott.

I would like at this time l>efore I yield the floor to anyone else to

recognize the fact that the chairman of the full committee, Mr.

Dulski, has come into the room. It is certainly a pleasant surprise to

have you here this morning, Mr. Chairman. I would like at this time

to yield to you for any questions or comments that you might have.

Mr. DULSKI. Thank you, Mr. Green. I want to commend this subcommittee, and you especially, Mr. Green, for taking such prompt

action on this legislation.

Mr. GREEN. Thank you. Mr. White.

Mr. WHITE. I just have this question. Would you please tell us

what are the major expenses in a census and what percentage of the

total generally that they occupy in the overall budget?

Dr. ECKI.ER. The largest single expense in all of the censuses is

the field work. The collection of the basic data, which involves going

to every household, or in the case of the mail-out mail-back procedure

involves getting a set of addresses lined up and checked out, which

can be used for the mail-out purposes, and then we follow up on the

people whom we need to.

Now I believe the general proportion of that total cost is not far

from 60 percent. This is the biggest single element in our cost.

Now the next largest element of cost, is the processing of the very

large amount of paper which develops from a major census. Sometimes T have been equipped with information on the number of carloads that are involved or what would happen if you piled these up,

how many times they would exceed the height of the Washington

Monument, or what would happen if you use them to cover a football

field. I don't have those figures, but they are more impressive than

ever before because the mail-out mail-back procedure involves more

pieces of paper so that each individual may have something on which

he can make his own return.

Now this has advantages of privacy, et cetera, but it does give us

a lot more paper to deal with.

My general recollection of the cort of this part of the work, the

processing, carrying through the point where you pet this on magnetic

tapes and it goes on our big computers•I would think this is at least

25 percent of the total cost. So that perhaps something like 85 percent would be represented by the collection and the getting of information in form forthe big computers to tabulate.

Then we have what is the amazingly productive side which is a

small part of the total cost, the task of putting these magnetic tapes

through the computer, working at extremely high speeds•at speeds

that the averasre person, including me, can't possibly understand. I

believe that, this tabulation part might account for another 5 percent. It is not a very large percentage. And the publication might

be another 5 percent, mayl>e a little more.

These are very rough indications, but I think it is serviceable to

indicate that the great bulk of the expenditures are for the collec-
26 MID-DECADE CENSUS

tion and the preparation of the paper to pet it into the computers,

and that the work on the tabulators themselves, the high speed computers, and the printing, is a relatively small part of the total.

Con, do you have any modification I

Dr. TAEUBER. I might add just the one point that although we go

as far as we believe is feasible in getting the entries made as Mr.

Bowman described, instead of writing words and numbers the people are asked to make little marks which we can then read electrically,

there are certain kinds of entries which can't be made that way. So

we have an office operation that requires that we code the names of

States, the State of birth, the country of birth, or the name of the

occupation. We set a group of clerks to work translating those English words, or in some cases numbers, into these marks so that the

computer can handle it. This clerical operation is an important part

of the processing work Mr. Pk'kler just mentioned.

Mr. WHITE. On your mail-out receive-back program that you are

preparing for the 1070 census what percentage of return response do

you anticipate from that alone without followup on interviews?

Dr. ECKLER. We hope to get at least 80 percent, and I wouldn't rule

out the possibility that with the very fine publicity that one can get

at the time of a decennial census that this would be above 80 percent,

8f> percent possibly. We have had as high as 85 percent in particular

test areas, and we hope that with the cooperation of the various

media and the intensive effort that usually conies at the time of a

decennial census that we can build up that above the level of a particular test.

Mr. WHITE. IS there any compulsion associated with the response?

Dr. ECKLER. Yes, response to census is mandatory.

Mr. WHITE. By the mail-out system, too?

Dr. ECKLER. Yes.

Mr. WHITE. They will understand this, I presume. Thank you.

Mr. (JREEN. Mr. MeOlure.

Mr. MCCLURE. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Dr. Eckler, 1 have just a couple of questions, and I think perhaps

this has been touched on before, but I would like to have your view of

it. The cost of the 1960 census, do you have the figures on that ?

Dr. ECKLER. The cost of the I960 census was very close to $130

million.

Mr. MCCLURE. And your projected cost of the 1970 census?

Dr. ECKLER. If we are going to use these figures I should remove

agriculture from that because that $130 million included agriculture.

Without that, about $105 million.

Mr. MCCLURE. And a comparable figure for the 1970 census?

Dr. ECKLER. The comparable figure for 1970 is estimated at about

$155 million.

Mr. MCCLURE. Were you present when Dr. Bowman testified?

Dr. ECKLER. Yes.

Mr. MCCLURE. And he used the figures, I think, of $170 to $200

million.

Dr. ECKLER. 175 to 200. That was on the basis of the full-scale

census, and I believe that range is sufficient to include the possibility

of what we would see with a population increase between now and
MID-DECADE CENSUS 27

1975, that would not be as large a population increase as in the decade

of the 1960's.

Mr. MCCLURE. DO I understand then it is your understanding that

Dr. Bowman's testimony about the $170 to $-200 million was the 1975

census?

Dr. ECKLER. I understood it was the 1975 census using the population as of that time, but using present prices and working on the assumption that you would repeat, about the same amount of detail as in

1970 as we are planning.

Mi\ MCCLURE. What woidd a bare bones census cost ?

Dr. ECKLER. In 1975?

Mr. MCCLURE. Yes.

Dr. ECKLER. Our estimate is about $70 million.

Mr. MCCLURE. HOW much of the cost of special surveys has been

borne by individual communities and States, special groups ?

Dr. ECKLER. My estimate of the cost of the special censuses during

this decade is something like $8 million or a little over.

Mr. MCCLURE. There is one point in your statement

Dr. ECKLER. That is borne locally. That was clear in your question,

wasn't it, that they pay for that?

Mr. GREEN. Would the gentleman yield for just one minute? I understood the intent of your question to be-•T may be wrong•please

correct me if I am•what percentage do the local communities pay

or what percentage does someone pav for a special census that is taken.

I would presume the answer would be a hundred percent. Is that

correct ?

Dr. ECKLER. Yes.

Mr. MCCLURE. I was really getting at the figure that he used. Thank

you.

Does the figure you have been using include the special information

that may be contracted for governmental agencies ?

Dr. ECKLER. NO, it wouldn't, include that. If there were legislation

for a mid-decade census then presumably any State which had some

areas that wanted up-to-date figures would not contract with us to

take those but they would wait until the figures became available as a

part of the Federal program.

Mr. MCCLURE. You made some reference to the fact that the Veterans' Administration, for instance, might want a more detailed report than you would ordinarily give and they would contract with

you for that.

Dr. ECKLER. That applies more particularly to the sample surveys

that we do. We have a continuing sample survey program which provides information on employment and unemployment and other factors. Now sometimes a particular agency•it might be the Office of

Education, it might lie the Veterans' Administration, it might be the

Department of Agriculture•has a particular need for something

which is important to their program. So we will add perhaps half a

dozen questions or a whole series on the basis of their specifications.

We will collect that information in the field, tabulate it. and turn it

over to them, and they pay for the cost over and above the regular

program.
28 MID-DECADE CENSUS

Mr. MCCLURE. Now that is not included in your regular decennial

census ?

Dr. ECKLER. In the regular decennial census there usually is not an

opportunity to do this sort of thing.

Mr. MCCLURE. And would you anticipate that this sort of thing

would be done with the mid-decennial census?

Dr. ECKLER. I would think probably there would lie less opportunity. At the time of a census you have such a massive operation, as

Mr. Bowman pointed out earlier, that you have to have somewhat different operating rules, and I think the ability to contract with different agencies for additional questions to be included because of their

interest is somewhat difficult. It might be possible. I wouldn't rule it

out completely.

Mr. MCCLURE. But you are not anticipating this would be a major

portion of the census ?

Dr. ECKLER. Xot anticipating it to l>e, no.

Mr. MCCLURE. Did this $8 million figure you are talking about on

local cost for your special surveys include this contract cost with other

governmental agencies?

Dr. ECKLER. The special census work is all paid for by the localities.

That would be a city or a county or a municipality.

Mr. MCCLURE. Well, you mentioned the figure, of about $8 million

that you expected that local governments were bearing in these special

surveys and special censuses.

Dr. ECKLER. That is during the present decade, the total cost

Mr. MCCLURE. NOW does that include the contract cost of this additional work for governmental agencies other than local governments?

Dr. ECKLER. Oh, no.

Mr. MCCLURE. What figure would you put on that?

Dr. ECKLER. The total•I am not sure I can classify specifically the

kind you want, but I might say that the total amount of contract work

that we are doing in a fiscal year now for other agencies is something

like $18 million. Now that would be a wide variety of jobs. We do

work for the Department of Labor, Health, Education, and

Welfare

Mr. MCCLURE. But this $18 million doesn't include what the cities,

counties, States, local governments are

Dr. ECKLER. On an annual basis. The $8 million I mentioned earlier

was over 6 years, and each year there would be a certain part of that

in the $18 million.

Mr. MCCLURE. Thank you. I believe that is all.

Mr. GREEN. Thank you.

Mr. Thompson.

Mr. THOMPSON. Yes, Dr. Eckler, let me ask you a question. Would

you ask different questions in the 1970 census if you know you are

going to have a chance to follow up in 1075 than you would if we

were not going to have a 1975 census?

Dr. ECKLER. I should think there is a possibility that the choice of

questions might be modified in the light of that, that some groups which

are very anxious to have a particular question included might put

less pressure on for their needs if they thought they had another

chance within 5 j-ears. If it is not going to be for another 10 years

the push becomes much greater. So I should think you could plan on
MID-DECADE CENSUS 29

a little more orderly basis to defer some things which are almost at

the point where you ought to include them but perhaps in view of the

pressures and needs for other things, or needs for holding down costs,

you would like to defer.

I believe you would have a better case for deferring some questions

if there was a prospect of a mid-decade census or sample survey.

Mr. THOMPSON. Going to the mail-out, and, of course, mail-back in

questionnaires, to a large degree would not the accuracy that you

would obtain be dependent upon the mailing list that you are using

and how accurate is your mailing list in reaching all the people?

Dr. ECKLER. Mr. Congressman, we start off with a commercial mailing list which is not complete. It is the beat we can get, but no commercial mailing list is complete. So that the first step is to work with

the mail carriers. We get, this list sorted by the carrier routes, and we

have the carrier find out, what stops on his regular circuit are not

represented in our list. He will give us information, and then we add

to our list those additional addresses.

Then again at the time of the census we have a form, an envelope

for each person on his route. He will case those forms, as they express

it, and he will find that even after all this there may be two or three

blanks in his system case that he uses to put his mail up. So with that

information he then calls upon us for additional forms to send to the

missing addresses, if any•they should be mighty rare at that time.

We believe that this supplementation of the commercial list and

the double job on the part of the postal carrier, who certainly knows

every address, every place he goes to on his i

-oute, give us an extremely

good basis for having a complete coverage.

Now there are certain kinds of situations which are better handled

by special devices, as we have done in the past, special devices for

the sake of the people who get mail in lock boxes•and there are certain special places, such as flophouses, missions, and so forth, which

require particular attention. They are not covered by the usual procedures, and we have to have a night or two nights when we work

on those. And then at every household we will have a question to find

out whether there are any other households in this structure that might

be, omitted.

We believe that as the result of all these safeguards we do get very

good coverage.

Mr. THOMPSON. Do you feel that you will have any substantial savings in the cost of taking the census by using the mail-out mail-back

in technique?

Dr. ECKIJCR. Originally we had hoped that this would lead to some

savings. I believe our present judgment is that we were a little optimistic about that initially and that the overall cost outlay will be

quite close to the same as before.

We will, however, have certain assets which can be used for future

censuses which we believe constitute an important byproduct. The

very comprehensive list, that we get brought up to date is of very

considerable value, particularly if we are going to have sample surveys

or a mid-decade census. The system for coding addresses to localities

is somethang that can be used for future censuses. This was worked out

for this current purpose but has future value.

78-232•«7 5
30 MID-DECADE CENSUS

That the overall result will be that the outlay will be very similar,

as we see it now, but we will have some benefits carried over to other

ope rations.

Mr. THOMPSON-. May I ask you one further question on this point ?

Could you give me any idea of what percentage of the people would

be contacted by the lists that are being used! In other words, just

how accurate are these \ Would we get 99 percent or 99^ percent of

all the people % How many are we not going to have on the mailing list \

Dr. ECKLER. Well, between the combination of the mailing list and

what (he carrier supplies I believe our percentage is going to be extremely high. I don't know whether I want to give a percentage there.

There will be areas•I know the chairman is concerned about some

of the most congested areas in our big cities where the difficulties of

enumeration have increased very greatly in recent years, and in those

cases I think we are going to have to have very intensive door to door

checks even after we have mailed out the forms. In those areas some

of the housing units may be reflected by the mail carrier's listings

Mr. THOMPSON. This is my concern also on the mail-out mail-back

in. particularly in some of the urban areas.

Dr. ECKLER. Urban?

Mr. THOMPSON. Urban. I am concerned that we may miss some

substantial numbers of people. But you certainly know more about this

than I, and I am certain that you are looking into it in great detail.

Dr. ECKLER. AS the chairman noted, we are going to have an opportunity to come before the committee in a month or so, and we

expect to review this kind of problem in quite considerable detail

and welcome questions, and we will tell you what, we are planning

to do, and we would like to have your ideas if there are any shortcomings that you see.

Mr. THOMPSON*. May T ask one further question, Mr. Chairman, and then I will yield the floor. On the s\ibmission of questions

that would be used, say. for a 1975 census and various surveys who

would make the final decision and choice as to what questions are

going to be asked and what percentage of the population is going

to lie sampled, and so forth ? Would thatbe yours ?

Dr. ECKLER. It rests in the Secretary of Commerce. The authority

is given to him. He has delegated it to the Director of the Census. But

I assure you that the Directors, all of them I have known•and I

trust this will continue•take very seriously the responsibility of getting the broadest possible judgment regarding needs from congressional committees, from direct contact with census users in a large

number of cities. We have met with some 2,000 different people in

more than 20 cities, we have committees that meet with as, professional groups of one sort and another. The Bureau of the Budget has

a group of Federal agencies which come together to portray their

needs, describe them to us. And all this is taken into account, and,

of course, the final decision reflected by the questionnaire has to be

approved by the Bureau of the Budget, and finally we have to get

congressional approval in the way of appropriations to support the

level of questioning, which includes the size of sample and amount

of detail asked of the public. There are many, many checks upon

this process.

Mr. THOMPSON. Thank you very much.
MID-DECADE CENSUS 31

Mr. GREEN. Thank you very much, Doctor. We certainly appreciate your coming this morning; and I want to thank you, too, Dr.

Taeuber, for accompanying Dr. Eckler this morning.

Dr. ECKLER. I am delighted to have had so many here despite the

competition this morning.

Mr. GREENE Our next witness is Dr. Walter W. Wilcox, who is

the Director of Agricultural Economics for the U.S. Department

of Agriculture.

Doctor, I apologize for the lateness of the hour. The rules of the

House say we have to stop at noon. If you would like to submit your

statement for the record that would be fine. If you would like to come

back tomorrow that would be fine; whichever you prefer.

Dr. WILCOX. I really think my statement is complete, as far as we

are concerned in the Department of Agriculture, and if I submit it for

the record thatis satisfactory to me.

Mr. GREEN. Thank you very much. I apologize for having you sit

here for a half hour and then not have a chance to testify. We appreciate your coming, and I will ask unanimous consent that Dr. Wilcox's

statement be included in the record.

Mr. MCCLURE. Mr. Chairman, I do not wish to object, but reserve

the right to object. I would assume upon reading his statement if we

had some questions he would be available.

Mr. GREEN. Dr. Wilcox, will you be available to answer questions

that might arise as a result of your testimony ?

Dr. WILCOX. Yes.

Mr. MCCLITIE. Then I withdraw my objection.

(The statement of Dr. Wilcox follows.)

STATEMENT OP WALTER W. WILCOX, DIRECTOR OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS,

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

Mr. Chairman and members of the subcommittee. I am glad to have this opportunity to appear before your subcommittee and to present the views of the

Department of Agriculture regarding proposed mid-decade census legislation.

The Department is in favor of a mid-decade census of population, unemployment, and housing of the type provided for in H.It. 7G.">9 and recommends that

this bill be enacted.

In recent years the Congress has passed many constructive bills designed to

promote economic development, better housing, improved education, manpower

training, to insure civil rights, and to eliminate poverty. Each of the programs

resulting from these acts requires a flow of reasonably current demographic,

employment, and housing statistics in order to be administered intelligently, efficiently, and equitably. The Federal Government's means to combat social and

economic problems have advanced in the last 4 years beyond the capacity of our

present statistical system to supply necessary information to program administrators, furthermore, changes in the size, distribution, and composition of the

population have proceeded so rapidly that data more than 5 years old are often

misleading.

The Farmers Home Administration, the Forest Service, the Farmer Cooi>erative Service, the Consumer and Marketing Service, the Rural Electrification

Administration, and other agencies of the USDA have programs involving investment in facilities, educational programs, technical assistance, and direct

investment in either food or transfers of funds. Data that would be collected

under the proposed census legislation are vital to the effective administration

of each of these programs. Such data are also vital to evaluating and refining

the programs so that they more efficiently reach their objectives.

Cited below are a few important examples of the Department's needs for more

current data which would enable it to do a more effective job :

(1) The Farmers Home Administration, under the Housing Act of 1949 as

amended in 19(51. Is authorized to make loans for both farm and nonfarm rural
32 MID-DECADE CENSUS

housing. In projecting program needs, reasonably current information is needed

00 the number and condition of rural dwelling units by farm and nonfarm

status and the condition of these units. Questions on housing or public facilities

should be so structured that the availability and need for water and sewer facilities would result. Current information is badly needed to help direct the water

and sewer programs of this Department, as well as programs in HUD and

HEW.

(2) In the absence of more frequent information, the Consumer and Marketing Service is limited in its ability to determine and project needed expenditures

in both the food stamp and the direct distribution programs.

(3) Provisions of the Economic Opportunity Act present difficulties, on the

basis of available statistics, in measuring relative income levels for definition

of poverty and for program eligibility, and in assessing the amount of rural

versus urban poverty.

(4) The Manpower Development and Training Act of 1902 has specific provisions for unemployment and underemployed workers in low-income-farm families. As a part of the rural area development effort, basic figures on the occupational and educational characteristics of the rural population, available more

currently than from the decennial census, are important to the furtherance of

the objectives of this act.

(5) The Appalachian Regional Development Act of 1966 directs the Appalachian Regional Commission to give consideration to the important economic and

social factors related to economic development. Since the region is still predominantly rural, and a significant number of counties have 75 or more percent

of their population classified as rural farm and rural nonfarm. the USDA is expected to make Important contributions in rural area program development.

Current basic economic, demographic, and resource use data are needed to insure that programs reflect current economic and resource situations. The USDA

has been furnishing economic data analyses based principally on the I960 Census of Population. Many counties in the region have experienced major changes

in population and economic activity in the last 5 years, and up-to-date information would assist the Appalachian Regional Commission and other regional development groups recently formed under the Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1905, in planning realistic economic development programs.

(6) The Economic Research Service has a continuing need for reasonably current demographic and related data in preparing responses to requests concerning

pending legislation. This agency also is frequently asked to supply information

on recent migration from rural to urban areas which comes from comparatively

small sample surveys. A mid-decade census with the flexibility proposed in

H.R. 7059 would greatly increase the accuracy and detail of such information.

Current data relating to characteristics of farm operator households are becoming available from the 1064 Census of Agriculture and have been of assistance

in meeting our data needs. We have also made good use of national sample survey

data from the current population survey of the Bureau of the Census. This survey

does have a serious limitation, however, for the needs of the Department of

Agriculture. Although the sample provides a farm-nonfarm classification, it

cannot distinguish rural population from urban population on an up-to-date basis.

Thus, the Department lacks current information on the total rural population

at the very time that its program focus is turning increasingly to general rural

economic development problems, rather than solely the agricultural problems

of the farm population.

Because of the needs outlined above, the Department of Agriculture believes

that, decennial censuses of population and housing are no longer adequate for

the efficient conduct of public affairs. We. therefore, urge that the Congress enact

the proposed legislation which would provide, on a mid-decade basis beginning

15)75, a census of population, housing and unemployment that, would take into

account the extent to which current information is available and would make

maximum use of sampling procedures consistent with statistical needs.

Mr. GREEN\ The subcommittee stands adjourned until 10 o'clock

tomorrow morning.

(Whereupon, at 12 noon, the subcommittee recessed, to reconvene at

10 a.m., Wednesdaj', April 20,1907.)
MID-DECADE CENSUS

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 26, 1967

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES,

SUBCOMMITTEE OX CENSUS AND STATISTICS OF THE

POST OFFICE AND CIVIL SERVICE COMMITTEE,

Washington, D.C.

The subcommittee reconvened at 10:08 a.m., in room 429, Cannon

Building, the Honorable William J. Green (chairman) presiding.

Mr. GREEN. The subcommittee will come to order.

This morning we will have the second and concluding day of testimony on H.R. 7659, a bill to provide, for a mid-decade census of population, unemployment, and housing, beginning in 1975.

Yesterday we heard from spokesmen for the executive branch.

Today we will hear from representatives of the public.

Before we proceed, I should like to comment briefly on an important

point that came up in yesterday's discussion. The administration indicated its support of the present bill with the clear understanding

that the intent of the Congress is to provide for flexibility in planning

so as to meet the needs of the time with the minimum expenditure of

funds.

I want to underscore that, and to state definitely that it was not

my intent in introducing H.R. 7059, and I am sure it is not the intent

of the subcommittee, to hand the administration a blank check with

no regard for consideration of economy. And, quite evidently, the administration does not want that kind of authorization. The flexibility

desired would extend downward rather than upward. The bill requires

the Bureau of the Census and the Office of Statistical Standards in

the Bureau of the Budget to plan a census that would fill in the important statistical gaps and not repeat anything that did not need

repeating, and that would make maximum use of sampling and other

cost-reducing techniques.

It is obviously difficult to put a price tag now on a 1975 census,

before we have had the experience of the 1970 census and before we

know what the pressing needs will be in 1975, but we have been told

that the 1975 census, on a bare-bones basis, could cost less than onehalf the estimated amount for the full-scale decennial census, and that

if it were placed entirely on a sample basis it could cost even less.

Whatever the plans may be, we will expect that they will be brought

before this subcommittee for discussion and evaluation as they develop, just as is being done with plans for the 1970 census. We will

have an opportunity' to see that the statistical needs will be met in an

efficient fashion. The plans and cost estimates, of course, will also be

subject to review by the Bureau of the Budget and the appropriation

committees of the Congress.
34 MID-DECADE CENSUS

We must remember too that, whatever the cost of the mid-decade

census, it will be, if properly designed and executed, a profitable venture. The profit will be iu 5 years of more effective direction and

control of billions of dollars of expenditure by all levels of government and by the private sector of the economy.

The profit will be maximized if the bill is enacted in this Congress,

so that its full effect on planning for both 1970 and 1975 can be realized. I think delay would breed uncertainty and extra cost.

It is a great pleasure this morning for me to call our first witness,

Mr. William L. Rafsky, who is the executive director of the Old

Philadelphia Development Corp. It is a pleasure because Mr. Rafsky

is one of Philadelphia's most distinguished public servants. His work

in the area of urban renewal is nationally known. He is one of the most

outstanding public servants, without any question, in the city of

Philadelphia and in the country, and it is a great pleasure to havehim

here this morning. Mr. Rafsky, we welcome you.

STATEMENT OF WILLIAM L. RAFSKY, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OLD

PHILADELPHIA DEVELOPMENT CORP.

Mr. RAFSKY. Mr. Chairman, and members of the committee, my

name is William L. Rafsky, from Philadelphia, Pa.

Mr. Chairman, thank you very much for those kind words. I certainly appreciate them, and we know your contribution to Philadelphia in supporting our many programs, as well as our distinguished

Congressman Nix.

Mr. GREEN. I want to make it perfectly clear, and on the record,

that my comments are meant, and are not in any way patronizing.

Mr. RAFSKY. Thank you very much.

I have submitted my statement, and I would like to kind of summarize, on the assumption that the statement will be entered into

the record.

In my judgment, there can be little doubt about the need of a middecade census of population, unemployment, and housing. The rapid

changes which have taken place in our society, particularly in the last

20 years, and all of the evidence that has been compiled in terms of

congressional hearings and writings in the learned journals, make it

clear that there is overwhelming evidence of the utility and value of

a mid-decade census.

Everyone knows about the high mobility rate, the changes in transportation technology, the shifting of employment primarily from

manufacturing to service industry, new concepts in schools and in public health, and that all of these are dependent on adequate and well

documented statistical and census data.

In my judgment, therefore, it is not an issue of whether we should

have such a census or not. The need is clear cut. The issue in effect is,

would the additional cost justify the benefits that are produced? And

from the point of view of those of us who have responsibility in workins on the ills of our urban communities there is little doubt that a

mid-decade census would produce tremendous returns.

This great, movement of our population, where one out of every five

households moves every year, is particularly significant in our metropolitan areas. As committee members know, there has been a tremendous inmigration from nonurban areas to our cities, and at the same
MID-DECADE CENSUS 35

time an outmigration from the cities to the urban areas within metropolitan regions. All of these create new problems and changing conditions in which census data can be extremely helpful, and a decade

span is just too long.

"When it comes to 10G7, the 1960 data are inadequate and we find that

its utility has been greatly reduced.

I think this is quite well evidenced by a report of the Bureau of

Census. It is the Current Population Reports, and the one that was

issued on March 27 of this year does indicate that the difference between 1960 and 1966 of such things as the movement of nonwhite

population into central cities has greatly changed. The magnitude of

that movement in these 6 years puts an entirely different dimension

on how we view our problems in our urban areas, and it is because of

these that our programs and services that city governments have to

provide and which are so dependent on this kind of information require up-to-date statistics, and those up-to-date statistics can produce

greater efficiency and better results.

As the committee members know, many cities are now in the process of preparing applications for the model cities programs. As a

member of the President's task force which explored this concept,

we found that the staff that worked with us was handicapped because

in 1965 the 1960 data did not give us the kind of picture we needed,

and so there had to be estimates and guesses rather than the kind of

data we thought would be helpful.

I have been through the same experience in the city of Philadelphia.

At the request of the mayor I have participated in preparing its

application for model cities planning funds; and it is quite clear to

those of us who have prepared this application that not only would

time and money be saved, but the nature of the activities that we would

recommend could be more precise and, therefore, more effective.

It is important, therefore, to point out that information that census

can gather in such a mid-decade census can be extremely useful right

away. When I testified on a similar proposal back in 1961, one of the

arguments was given that it takes a year or two for the raw data to be

processed in such a meaningful form that it could be used by those of

us who have problems that we are working on in our urban areas.

With our degree of sophistication and computer technology this data

can be translated quite quickly into meaningful analyses and be useful

to us.

The benefits have to be judged not only in terms-of efficiency and

economy, but also the kind of benefit it gives to our citizens•benefits

which, in my judgment, would help in terms of solving our problems

of poverty, unemployment, and slums, because the more precise

analyses and the evaluation of alternatives that would be permitted

are advantages that help our people not, as I say, just in terms of

cost and economics, but also in terms of direct benefits that can be

measured.

We in Philadelphia, at the present time under the guidance of the

Federal Government, have launched a program and planning budgeting system, and I think the members of this committee are aware that

its use in Federal agencies under the auspices of the Bureau of the

Budget is aimed at making more efficient the various government

programs.
36 MID-DECADE CENSUS

In our operation in the city of Philadelphia we are making a strong

effort, to quantify programs and to measure and evaluate them as to

whether they are effective or not. And in the first go-round when the

city departments are asked to explain how they would he able to

judge how much a program was worth and how they determine their

priorities census data becomes tremendously important. The feeding

in of this material is of great value and can be significant in terms

of improving municipal services, and perhaps even more important,

relating them so that, they can be measured up aaginst what is taking

place in the private sector.

Under the program and planning budgeting system Government

programs are related to what is being done by private enterprise, and

the two are weighed together in order to make judgments on how a

budget should be allocated.

I would like to kind of touch base on some of the current major

issues which, in my judgment, make evident a mid-decade census

as being extremely helpful. And although this, as well as my previous

comments, seem to be geared on what is happening at the present, time.

I am confident that by 1075 this need will be even greater.

One of the problems we face is to develop a sound economic base.

Every urban area that T know of. particularly in the North, is faced

with a problem of flight of industry and growing unemployment

among our unskilled population. We are trying to develop programs

based on job training, attraction of industry to expand where they

are, and to bring new industry in; and here if we could have precise

census data on income and employment it can contribute much to the

quality of a proposal.

We know, for example, that there are changes in the nature, of job

opportunities and that there is a great emphasis in terms of shifting

from manufacturing to service industries. To what extent that has

happened in our community we need far more information than is

currently at hand, and the census can help us to do that.

In the field of education our great concern at the present time is to

develop new programs for slum dwellers and recent arrivals, the hardto-reach youngster; and our school board is attempting to produce a

variety of approaches, going all the way from school administrative

practices through curriculum techniques and organization of schools

in different patterns.

In every one of these programs their staff people and their technicians tell me that census data plays a role. And when you think that

sizable Federal funds are now involved in many of these programs

we think it is a good investment for a mid-decade census.

In the field of housing the shelter needs of our poorly housed

population has to depend on knowing the number of people, their

income, and the condition of their housing right now.

We have been through the process of a community renewal program in the city of Philadelphia, which you may know is a federally

aided study program to help each community determine what its

resources are and wdiat the gap is in terms of need. In preparing

this community renewal program, which we just completed last

December, we had to make numerous assumptions based on 1060 census

statistics, and as a result we think that we have made some guesses
MID-DECADE CENSUS 37

that may be wrong. We are greatly dependent on precise and current data which a mid-decade census could help us provide.

Transportation problems are of great concern today in all of our

urban areas, and census information is critical for highway planning

and for projecting mass transit operation.

We have a Penn-Jersey transportation study which is almost completed, and they have had to project to conditions in 1975 and 1985,

and what they did was to build a model taking into account population changes, income changes, land use, and so forth. Well, the input into that model is in effect the I960 census data, and they know,

l)ecause they have had to make adjustments on using that data, that

they are not working with the best material. A census in 1965 would

have done great things for it.

In the comparatively new field of fighting poverty we find that

each of our poverty area councils have to know the degree of the

problem and the quantity of that problem. A determination of priorities in using their limited funds is going to be based on that need,

and this in turn depends on existing statistical information which

we hope could be updated.

In the important field that we all face of licking discrimination

and segregation we have a number of programs that we have tried.

Perhaps the most important is better housing and free choice of

housing to our citizens.

Neighborhood composition has changed rapidly since 1960. You

just have to go around in terms of driving through Philadelphia

neighborhoods and other northern cities to see that these changes

have taken place. But we have to guess at the quantity and the exact

amount. And so when we make decisions on where to locate a low

rent public housing project, the number of units to be placed, the

type of services to be provided, all of these are influenced by the

distribution of population in the community. The census data is a

handicap in that regard. We need to have it updated.

The field of public health is another area where we find in terms

of our urban programs that we need to update census data. The

programs for senior citizens, for the young, for pregnant women,

all depend on knowing where the low income families are who need

these services, and what the age distribution of our population is.

Now this is just a kind of list of major points. There are many

other programs that we are concerned with in our urban areas that

are dependent on this type of data and statistics.

II.R. 7659 deserves strong support not only because it authorizes

a mid-decade census of population, unemployment and housim*, but

at the same time provides, as the chairman lias already indicated

this morning, a flexibility in the kind of form and content so that it

can be used and developed in such a way that in 1975 it can l>e the

most meaningful, and in terms of the amount of money that is put

aside for it. It also provides that full advantage be taken of current

information which may be available, and I think this is a prudent

and proper approach.

My only concern is that in preparing for such a mid-decade census

that emphasis be given to the fact that we need data for the smallest

possible areas, even blocks; we find that census tracts are sometimes
38 MID-DECADE CENSUS

too large for our utility, aud we hope that that would he taken into

account.

In summary, therefore, I strongly advocate a favorable subcommittee report on this bill, and I appreciate this opportunity to present

my point, of view to the subcommittee.

(The prepared statement of Mr. Rafsky follows:)

PREPARED STATEMENT OP WILLIAM L. RAFSKY, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR,

OLD PHILADELPHIA DEVELOPMENT CORP.

There can be little doubt about the need of a mid-decade census of population,

unemployment, and housing. The rapid changes which have taken place in our

society, particularly in the last 20 years, reams of testimony before congressional

committees, articles in learned journals, and the continued demand of businessmen and Government officials for up-to-date statistics, provide overwhelming

evidence of the utility and value of a middecade census.

The high mobility rate, changes in transportation technology, the shifting

from manufacturing to service-based employment, new concepts in education

and health, have made almost mandatory more frequent census data. The only

issue, therefore, is whether the additional cost can be justified by the benefits

produced.

For those of us who have responsibility in curing the ills of our urban communities, there can be little doubt that the need for census data is so great that

the investment would produce tremendous returns. One merely has to know the

great movement of our population, where an average of one out of every five

households changes location each year. This mobility is particularly significant

in our metropolitan areas, both in terms of movement from nonnrban areas to

urban concentrations, as well as movement from the core city to the suburbs of

a metropolitan region.

The March 27 Current Population Reports by the Bureau of Census points up

the dramatic changes which have taken place between 19fi0 and 19C.fi. This sample survey stresses, for example, the nature of the significant increase of nonwhite population within the central cities of standard metropolitan statistical

areas. So many of the programs and services of city governments are dependent

on such information, that up-to-date statistics can produce greater efficiency and

show productive results. Similar data in housing and employment would lie

invaluable.

How significant this information can be is particularly evident at this time

as scores of cities throughout the country are preparing applications for planning funds for the model cities program. As a member of the President's task

force which explored the concept, of model cities. I was acutely aware of the need

for census data in order to determine the magnitude of the problem and the

feasibility of financing the program. This experience has been reinforced by my

participation in the work of city government officials in Philadelphia who completed last month their application for model cities planning funds. Not only

would time and money be saved, but. the nature of the activities to cope with

blight and depreciation could be more precise and therefore more effective.

With onr present sophistication in the field of computer technology, and with

the utilization of the systems approach in coping with social and economic issues,

census data can be far more productive than it ever has been, and the findings of

a mid-decade census could be translated quite quickly into meaningful analyses

for action programs in our urban communities.

The benefits are not only in terms of efficiency and economy in output, but

also in a wide varietv of social benefits which are more difficult to measure. If

we can get at the problems of poverty, unemployment, and slums because of more

precise analyses and evaluation of alternatives, the advantages should be measured both in terms of economics and improvement for our citizens.

We in Philadelphia, as in other cities, are undertaking a new and comprehensive approach to budgeting and planning under the guidance of the Federal

Government and followine the techniques developed by the Rand Corp. for the

Department of Defense. The city's finance department has inaugurated a program and planning budgeting system. Its obieot Is to maximize the use of the

city's limited resources. In its efforts to quantify programs which do not readily
MID-DECADE CENSUS 39

lend themselves to a statistical measurement, more data of the type the census

produces would be extremely helpful. The city government is looking to its program budgeting operation to bring about significant improvement of municipal

services and to relate them more effectively to what is taking place in the private

sector of the community.

Even with these new analytical tools, mounting solutions for our complex

urban problems is more thau ever dependent upon current information and

statistics. A brief review of the current major issues makes evident how a middecade census can be helpful. Nearly every major older American city is concerned with the flight of industry and the growing unemployment among its

unskilled population. Whether the city government proposes improved vocational

training, development of fundamental literacy aptitudes, or incentives for business expansion, census information on income and employment can contribute

much to the quality of the proposal.

Of key importance is what is happening in the downtown core of the city, and

census tract data can shed much light on how well the central areas are doing.

Changes in the nature of job opportunities, such as in manufacturing and service

industries, can reveal potential for future program objectives.

City educational programs are going through the most intensive review and

change in generations. The problem of providing decent education for slum

dwellers and recent arrivals has produced a variety of approaches ranging from

school administrative practices, through new curriculum techniques, to organization of schools in different patterns. All of these can benefit from current

information on changes in school age population and the neighborhoods in which

they live. Sizable Federal funds are Involved in these programs, and their effective

and economical use can be better insured if up to date census material is

available.

A mid-decade census in housing would be invaluable at this point when city

government and housing agencies are revising radically their approaches to the

shelter needs of the poorly housed population. Extent of overcrowding, insufficient amenities, and degree of deterioratioin are basic for intelligent solutions

and programs. I can testify at first hand as chairman of Philadelphia's community renewal program how we had to make assumptions based on I960 census

statistics, which meant an inability for more precise programing. The community renewal program is designed to fashion a community strategy to bring

about an end to blight and substandard conditions. It is greatly dependent on

precise and current data.

Urban congestion is leading city after city, and in many cases with Federal aid,

to reexamine and develop improved transportation systems. Census information

is critical for highway planning and for projecting mass transit operations.

Perhaps in no other field is the census data so heavily used as in developing

metropolitan transportation programs. Every time there is a need to estimate

based on 1960 census information, there is built in a potential error in the final

results. Complex and intricate transportation models are being developed, aided

with Bureau of Public Roads funds, which unfortunately have to rely on 1960

census material.

In a comparatively new field, that of fighting poverty, city governments and

community leaders are finding themselves handicapped because of lack of up-todate information. The delineation of poverty areas is dependent on income and

employment data. Determination of priorities in using limited funds available are

based on need, which in turn is measured by existing statistical information.

Here again a mid-decade census can do a great deal to make more effective the

antipoverty campaign.

City governments faced with problems of discrimination and segregation have

mounted a series of programs aimed at improving race relations. The neighborhood composition has changed significantly since I960. In order to carry out

Federal Government policy in the housing field, local government must have information on population trends by race. Site location, number of units, type of

services, will all he influenced by the distribution of population in any community.

The Bureau of Census study of last month on population characteristics referred

to above, emphasized this point. It is not only essential to know that nine-tenths

of the increase in the nonwhite population of the United States between 1960

and 1960 was in the central cities, hut it is also necessary to know the census tract

in which they have located. A mid-decade census, therefore, can make a significant contribution to a better understanding of the race relations problem.
40 MID-DECADE CENSUS

Among the local Government services which are dependent on population data

is the important one of public health. No intelligent public health operation can

work effectively unless it knows, for example, where the elderly are located.

Public health services to children and special age and income groups can be

strengthened if current information about population distribution is available.

The above is but an illustration of the many ways in which a mid-decade

census can help face up to our urban problems. II.R. 7050 deserves strong support because it not only authorizes a mid-decade census of population, unemployment and housing, but at the same time provides a flexibility in that the exact

form and content of such a census will reflect the need at the time it gets under

way, and instructs that full advantage be taken of current Information which

may be available. This is a prudent and proper approach. From the point of

view of those of us who work on urban problems, it is important to emphasize

that the data is most meaningful if it is available for the smallest possible areas,

such as blocks, within census tracts.

I appreciate this opportunity to present this point of view to the subcommittee

and urge your prompt approval of H.R. 7659.

Mr. GREEN. Thank you very, very much, Mr. Rafsky. As I said,

it is a great pleasure to have you here. We certainly appreciate j'our

testimony this morning.

As you were finishing your statement•we are addressing ourselves

pretty much to how often this thing should be taken, and I think we

are in agreement, without question, that the census must be taken more

often, and our information is out of date and obsolete. But you started

to get into an area which also interests this subcommittee very much,

ana that is what should be asked in the census; and I woulcl like to

ask you, as someone who has been involved, vitally involved in planning, particularly for urban renewal, whether or not the information

that you get from the census is adequate. Are there questions that

aren't being asked that should be asked, in j'our opinion, on the basis

of your experience ?

Mr. RAFSKY. With one exception which I would like to mention, we

have found that the census data hi the field of urban renewal and

housing has been quite satisfactory. We have been able by purchasing special tabulations from the Bureau of the Census to fill in many of

the points on which we require additional data.

The one area where I would like to see additional questions asked

in greater refinement is in the quality of housing. The 1960 census

changed the definition, or at least had another category introduced on

housing, on the one hand, that is actually blighted and, on the other,

housing that is deteriorating. We believe although this was a step in

the right direction, it did not go far enough. We would l>e able to use

a clearer definition of adverse conditions in housing, and more detail

in that field would be extremely helpful in determining the kind of

programs we have.

I can best underscore that by pointing to the fact that our rehabilitation programs which Congress has encouraged, as distinguished from

slum clearance, go on the basis of can a house be saved, and we find as

we get into the house that we begin to uncover conditions that we

didn't see based on the census data.

We believe that the art has been developed now so that there can

be gradations of quality, and that information can be extremely helpful.

But with that exception the information the census provides has

been. I think, quite satisfactory.

Mr. THOMPSON. Would the gentleman yield just a minute?
MID-DECADE CENSUS 41

Mr. GREEN. I will be glad to.

Mr. THOMPSON*. I would like to pursue this point a little further.

Do you feel that a census taker would be qualified to determine the

basic soundness of a structure? Would it not take some professionals

to go in and look over the structure 1

Mr. RAFSKV. There is no doubt that he cannot define the condition of

the structure in the sense of a final decision. But we think that there

is data of a kind that can be extremely helpful.

We, for example, would like to have, by way of illustration•I am

not sure how practical this is, but it is in the direction we would like

to move•the size of the house in terms of the number of rooms to

determine what overcrowding is. We would like to have some idea of

such things as number of baths and kitchens and bedrooms. We would

like to know, for example, whether you have to go through a bedroom

to get to a bath.

These are factual questions that can be extremely helpful without

judging whether the plumbing is satisfactory, which I know a census

taker couldn't possibly do.

Mr. THOMPSON. Thank you.

Mr. GREEN. I am going to yield at this time to my distinguished

colleague from Philadelphia, Mr. Nix.

Mr. Nix. Thank you, Mr. Chairman..

Mr. Rafskv, I want to join with the chairman in expressing our

deep appreciation for your appearance here this morning.

Mr. RAFSKY. Thank you.

Mr. Nix. I am not so much concerned, although I am to a great

extent concerned, with the questions asked•I am primarily concerned

with the people who ask the questions.

Now there are segments in our population-•I am talking about

Negroes, I am talking about Puerto Ricans, T am talking about other

segments of the population who are reluctant to give information to

certain people who come seeking information for the census. They

relate those people to bill collectors, people representing the police,

people from other governmental agencies, and they just don't give the

information. And in consequence, of that distrust we have a census report that is totally inadequate as it refers to those segments of the

ponulation.

Now I feel that the people who are assigned to the duty of collect ing

this information should be someone familiar to the people of these

segments of the population, someone connected with the church in

the neighborhood, someone connected with some other agency with

whom these people have had contact, someone from the neighborhood.

Tn adopting that method you are going to have an adequate, factual,

and well-taken census.

Now as to the census itself, it seems to me that in every field of

activity affecting the community it is absolutely essential that you

have a census taken every 5 years. In housing, in education, in childbirth, birth control, in water pollution•you can't do anything in

the modern civilization in which we are living, the sophisticated civilization, unless you have numbers, unless you have some accurate appraisal or some figure from which you are able to arrive at some

degree of accuracy. It seems to me an argument that no one can

successfullv controvert.
42 MID-DECADE CENSUS

Now, that being the case, the only other question that arises, in

my opinion, is how often must it be taken and how much it costs.

I don't see how anyone, Mr. Chairman, can successfully argue that

it isn't imperative that we pass legislation on this subject. So the

only arguments that might be given or presented heretofore would

be on subjects like the cost and the frequency with which the census

is taken.

Now, because of the explosion in population, the tremendous explosion that has gone on, and is continuing to plague us, obviously

something must be done more frequently than was heretofore done

in the taking of census. So I therefore cannot see how anyone can

successfully argue that a shorter time is not necessary.

So, in my opinion, it only leaves the question of cost. And that is

something I prefer to leave to my colleagues because I am known

as a big spender.

Mr. RAFSKY. Mr. Congressman, I share your view on both points

that you have made. On the latter one I feel strongly that the cost

ought to be looked at in terms of an investment, and I tried in my

testimony to indicate that the return on that investment would be

so great both in terms of the economy of administering programs in

which Federal funds are now involved, as well sis in those benefits

which are more difficult to measure in terms of dollars or numbers.

I would like to say a word about the first point you made. As

you are well aware, Philadelphia was one of the cities in I960 which

required going back in order to determine whether some people had

been omitted in terms of the count, and as you recall, our total population increased as a result of that going back, and it was just precisely for the reason you indicated•that people did not want to

^ive information, for one reason or another they were frightened

and held back. In that regard we have some firsthand testimony in

this current year as to what that problem is.

We have been trying to measure unemployment in the city of Philadelphia because that measure has a bearing on the amount of Federal

aid we get for certain programs, and we believe that unemployment

is understated in Philadelphia because there are a number of households where there is not a formal marriage and the male heads do

not appear in our list of unemployed, because if they did there

might be some question of public assistance being denied the family

involved, and this is not just a small number.

We would very much like, for example, for the Bureau of the. Census

to develop techniques on how to find that out without in any way

penalizing the families that are there. We believe we need the information, and we should not get into the question of morality or legality at

this point because unemployment is still unemployment no matter in

what form it appears.

Mr. Nix. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Mr. GREEN. Thank you very much, Mr. Rafsky.

You mentioned the fact that sometimes the information you get

from the census comes in a form of too large tract and that apparently

your information is not down to the block-to-block level. Do you feel

that you need it on a block-to-block level?

Mr. RAFSKY. Yes.

Mr. GIU?ENT. Have you been unable to get it ?
MID-DECADE CENSUS 43

Mr. RAFSKY. We have not been able to get it in all of the categories that we would like, and I know we can purchase

Mr. GREEN. Can you expand on that just a little bit because I would

like them to hear it from the Bureau of the Census and they would be

familiar with what our problems are in Philadelphia.

Mr. RAFSKY. Well, this is true, I think, not only in Philadelphia,

but any large urban area. We find that in terms of carrying out programs•let me back up a little bit and say we are very desirous in

most of our programs dealing with neighborhoods to try to spare every

building we possibly can. Our first approach is to say can we save it,

in order to avoid the hardship of dislocation. And in order to determine what chances we have, census tract data gives us pictures which

say an area is very blighted or not blighted, but within that census

tract there may be conditions in which even in terms of half blocks

you might be able to save enough of the buildings. We might be able

to determine the kind of families that we have there and their income.

And the pinpointing of this is a very indispensable tool for us in our

bousing and renewal programs.

We have found, for example, that when we get into an urban renewal program and do the detailed house-by-house survey and planning that we uncover things that we couldn't anticipate before. But

that is a long, time-consuming process which we could not only save,

but would give us guidance in the early days in making a more intelligent prediction if we have the data in hand.

Mr. GREEN. Thank you very, very much for coming. We certainly

appreciate it.

Mr. RAFSKY. Thank you.

Mr. GREEN'. We appreciate your testimony.

Our next witness today is Mr. George B. McGimsey, assistant director of the Regional Planning Council for Baltimore, Md., representing the American Institute of Planners.

Mr. McGimsey, I want to take this opportunity, sir, to welcome

you before the committee. We certainly appreciate your coming here

this morning. We are certainly glad to have you.

STATEMENT OF GEORGE B. McGIMSEY, ASSISTANT DIRECTOR,

REGIONAL PLANNING COUNCIL. BALTIMORE, MD., REPRESENTING AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF PLANNERS

Mr. MCGIMSEY. Thank you, sir. We are happy to be here.

The American Institute of Planners appreciates this opportunity

to testify concerning the proposal for a mid-decade census. The views

to be presented today reflect the thinking of the AIP Data Series

Committee and is representative of the institute's 4,700 members.

Present with me todav is Mr. David K. Hartley of the national AIP

staff, who will be available to answer questions also.

Before your committee in 1962 and again in 1965, planners throughout the Nation have consistently testified concerning the need for more

frequent censuses of population, housing, and unemployment. AIP

reiterates these previous statements and urges that the "bill you are

considering (H.R. 7659) be passed.

There are many reasons why mid-decade censuses should be conducted. Here we summarize a few of the more compelling ones.
44 MID-DECADE CENSUS

Rapid change stemming from a variety of pauses including major

shifts in the location and characteristics of national and local economic activity is the most obvious fact which argues for more up-todate data. Keeping track of this change in the absence of a mid-decade

census is extremely difficult because the many items covered in the

decennial census are interrelated in a complex and intricate set of

patterns. Remedial programs focused on anv one item, such as substandard housing, need to take account of the characteristics of the

occupants of that housing, their income, their education, the size of the

household.

As the relevant relationships change over time, it is important for

Government program analysts to be able to follow the many interrelated aspects of those changes. These interrelationships, as things

stand now. are clearly stated only once in 10 years, hardly a firm basis

for the many and costly public programs. These complex connections

refer not only to one item of information in regard to another, but to

relationships of space and time as well.

For example, housing conditions in the country as a whole improved

between 1950 and 19(>0, but went from bad to worse in many areas

of our large cities. The need, therefore, is not only for more data, but

for that data to be available to small areas, such as census tracts and

for any subarea the cities may establish.

Some localities have attempted to partially fill these data gaps by

preparing population and housing estimates from sources such as

building permits. While some success has been achieved in these efforts,

the poor quality of much of the local data makes these estimates very

questionable if prepared 5 to 10 years after the census.

Similar problems exist for State agencies. For instance, employment security commissions obtain actual counts of employment only

for workei-s covered by unemployment insurance. Even for covered

employees the commissions lack considerable amount of detailed information which is made available only in the decennial census. For

noncovered workers, such as agricultural, self-employed, and unpaid

family workers and domestics, the census is used as a benchmark to

make estimates. These estimates could be much more accurate if census

data were furnished more often. The agencies do not collect unemployment, information by small areas or by characteristic of the unemployed. This means that we are in the dark concerning the employment status of the low-income residents of the inner city, the aged,

and the young.

For many items of interest there simply is no substitute for the

census. The 1,132 special censuses which cities have asked the Bureau

to conduct since 19(10 clearly reflect this condition.

One particularly disconcerting aspect of the various estimating efforts in lieu of the census is the large amount of time analysts spend

collecting data rather than analyzing the problems of the community,

region, or State.

The administration and revision of programs inaugurated under

recently passed Federal and State legislation requires more timely

data than are now available. For instance, the data requirements of

administrators and analysts with the urban renewal and model cities

program, metropolitan development, crime prevention and control,

and comprehensive health planning include information now avail-
MID-DECADE CENSUS 45

able only in the decennial census. Policy decisions based on inaccurate

old data usually result in little progress toward the solution of intractable urban and rural problems.

Recent technological advances have decreased the time it takes to

tabulate censuses and thereby reducing the lag between data collection and availability. If the same procedures used in 1950 were to be

repeated, a mid-decade census would be inadvisable. With improvements made in I960 and those planned for 1970, we are assured that

census results will be made available in time to have a meaningful

impact on the development of policy and administration of complex

programs.

The inclusion of journey-to-work data in 1970 also enhances the

utility of the census. It would be extremely valuable to have this information available every 5 years since the work trip is a good indicator of changes occurring in the structure of metropolitan areas. In

addition, the inclusion of work-trip data will permit the preparation

of small area employment tabulations. At the present time, this is one

of the big gaps in data required for the preparation of city and regional plans.

The new procedures to be used by the Census Bureau in 1970 and

thereafter open up the possibilities of close coordination of local data

collection efforts and those of the Bureau. This is of particular interest

to planners who in the past have had difficulty in relating land use

information to population and employment data. The new procedures

will enable the Census Bureau to make cross-tabulations between locally collected land use data and population and employment data obtained in the census. This capability will magnify the usefulness of the

census several times.

Development plans for cities and metropolitan areas need to lie revised at least every 5 years. In some cases, State or local legislation

explicitly calls for such 5-year updating of plans. It would be very

helpful to have data on population and housing available to such planning efforts as frequently as data on business, manufacturers, and governments which are now collected every 5 years by the Bureau.

Mr. GREEN. Thank you very much, Mr. McGim'sey, for coming this

morning, and thank you, too, Mr. Hartley.

I am going to at this time yield to my colleague from Philadelphia,

Congressman Nix.

Mr. Nix. Mr. McCimsey, I take it that you are for this legislation.

Mr. MCGIMSEY. Yes, sir.

Mr. Nix. But you are somewhat disenchanted with the information

that has l>een gathered in past censuses. You think it is inadequate, is

that correct?

Mr. MCGIMSEY. I think the plans for the 1970 census are going to

improve the census tremendously.

Mr. Xix. Then present statistics would have to be inadequate.

Mr. McGnrsEv. That is correct.

Mr. Nix. Thank you.

Tell me this: Do you feel that the people who secured the information were the proper appointees in those sections of the popidation

that I mentioned a few moments airo? That is to sav. is it vour opinion

that improvements could be made in that area ?
46 MID-DECADE CENSUS

Mr. MCGIMSEY. Yes, that is our opinion. We would like to see the

enumeration of the census be done on as professional basis as possible.

And I think one of the arguments for the 5-year cycle is the Bureau

will be able to retain more of the same people that have been used as

enumerators in the previous census.

Mr. Xix. When you consider the fact as stated here by Mr. Rafsky,

one out of every five households change location every year. I can

think of a tremendous number of people who are not even recorded,

not alone because they change their addresses and they change so frequently because of economic conditions, but because of the reluctance

to give information.

I am thinking of my own locality, a part of it, in some of the projects,

Mr. Chairman, in some of the broken-down houses in North Philadelphia where people change their addresses•and I am thinking

about the time when I go around to find them to vote•change their

addresses, let us say, every 3 months, and I cannot, believe that they

could possibly be recorded in any census that I have seen taken.

Xot only that, there is the problem of the complexity of the questions•and I mention that because I have had the 1960 census questions compared with those of 40 years back. There was simplicity at

one time. But as the years pass someone assumes that the population

becomes infinitely more educated, therefore the questions are more detailed and more complicated. And that is a matter that I believe ought,

to be looked into and corrected, because I feel that people are not

going to take the time, there are great number of people who are not

conversant with the information sought, and you are going to have an

inadequate set of answers to that sort of question.

Xow has that been your experience ?

Mr. MCGIMSEY. I think I will have to defer to the Census Bureau

officials on this question. I think generally speaking the proposal

to do the census by mail raises such questions as you have mentioned

here. Hopefully, for the areas of the innercity, for instance, where

some, of the people have less than elementary or high school education,

and would have difficulty with such questions, direct enumeration

should help somewhat,

Mr. Xix. Let me ask you this, which is going to be asked later on

by a number of people. You are representing the AIP Data Series

Committee. What does it do? What are its functions?

Mr. MeGiMSKY. One of its primary functions is to coordinate the

data needs of planners throughout the entire Notion with the Census

Bureau programs. We meet with and advise the Census Bureau.

I am, for instance, a member of their Small Area Data Committee.

Other planners are members of that committee, also.

We have other duties which include the investigation and advising

of other Federal agencies, including the Bureau of the Budget, concerning needed statistical programs.

Mr. Xix. You say you are a representative of 4,700 members. These

members are on planning commissions and committees?

Mr. McGnrsKV. These are professionally trained planners, technicians, as distinct from lay officials on the commission.

Mi-. Xix. And they represent States and local communities in bowman v sect ions of the United States ?
MID-DECADE CENSUS 47

Mr. MCGIMSEY. This includes all sections of the United States, both

urban and rural, State, regional and local.

Mr. Nix. And these planners are the people charged with the responsibility of collecting information on the basis of which the city,

the State, or the local community decide to build or do anything else

that they want to do to improve conditions in thatlocality ?

Mr. MCGIMSEY. That is correct.

Mr. Hartley, do vou want to comment on that I

Mr. HARTLEY. That is certainly true, yes. We are the national

professional society for urban and regional planners. Our members

have to meet a strict standard of education and experience to be

members.

Mr. Nix. SO when you testify here today you are bringing to this

committee information that comes from people who operate even

when the census is quiescent and who are concerned with and associated with people all over this country ?

Mr. MCGIMSEY. That is correct.

Mr. Nix. Just one last question, Mr. Chairman. You said here on

the second page in the middle paragraph that some localities have attempted to partially fill these data gaps by preparing population,

housing estimates from sources such as building permits. Now that

has happened in many communities, has it not ?

Mr. MCGIMSEY. "i es, I might comment on this matter of poor quality of the data. In the case of the building permits we are dependent

on the contractor to give us information about dwelling units. Actually

he knows very little about them and in the cases where he is just making

a modification of an apartment building, he knows practically nothing

about the occupants of the structure. We found throughout the country

that the building permit data are not very reliable, and in Baltimore,

for instance, the 1000 estimates based on building permits were far

from the results of the decennial census.

Mr. Nix. Makeshift, inadequate, and points up the need for the

Federal census, is that correct ?

Mr. MCGIMSEY. That is correct.

Mr. Nix. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Mr. GREEN. Thank you, Mr. Nix.

You made a statement that the inclusion of journey-to-work data

in the 1970 census would enhance the quality of the census, utility of

the census for you. When you say journey-to-work data, vou mean the

actual trip, the pattern that people follow going from their homes to

work ?

Mr. MCGIMSEY. I assume we are talking about trips from census

tract to census tract or from address to address. This is vital because

one of the problems we run into in almost every planning: project is

that we don't have small area employment data. The way this question

was asked in previous censuses did not give it to us, say, on a census

tract basis. And so, for instance, in origin-destination studies of transportation studies by means of a very thin sample, planners attempt to

estimate small area employment information. These data are equally

as vital as population data.

Mr. GREEX. I want to thank you very much for coming today. We

are going to be holding hearings next month on the census itself, on

the 1070 census, on what questions should be asked, on how the census
48 MID-DECADE CENSUS

should be taken, and we would be only too happy to welcome you back

at that time, and I would be only too receptive at this point to have

any comments that you might have on additional questions that you

think should be included, additional ways the Bureau of Census could

provide planners like yourself with statistics. If you have any comments to make along those lines we would be happy to have them now,

and we would be most happy to welcome you back a month from now.

Mr. McGmSEY. I would like to reiterate this matter on the work

trip. I understand that whether the other end of the work trip is

going to be coded is still up for discussion. T understand this is rather

expensive, and people have difficulty in telling you what the address

of the end of the trip is. "I work at Sparrows Point, the steel in ill."

What is the address? We would like to have this area investigated,

and. if at all possible, to have the end of the trip coded.

Now this would be top priority at this point. We would have other

Suggestions and would like to come back again, as you mentioned.

Mr. GRKKX. Well, as I say, we thank you very much for roaring.

We certainly appreciate the support that your prestigious organization has given to this bill.

Mr. MCGIMSKY. Thank you.

Mr. GREEN. Thank you very much.

During these hearings we have received communications to date

for inclusion in the hearing record from Senator Smathers on behalf

of himself and Senator Kuchel. from Senator Inouye, from Congressman Fuqua. Congressman Perkins. Congressman Dulski, Congressman Olsen. and a number of State and local government officials and

experts in the field, all of them in favor of this bill.

We are grateful to everyone who has come here and testified in

person. We are grateful to everyone who has submitted a statement.

We would like to keep the legislative record open for another day

or two so that others who may wish to submit statements may.

Without objection, the statements and letters received by the subcommittee will be placed in the record at this point.

(The statements and letters referred to are as follows:)

I'.S. SEXATT.

Washington, n.C, April 21. 1967.

Hon. Wn-LiAM J. GREEN.

Ifouxe nf Representatives,

Washington, n.C.

PKAB CONGRESSMAN : I regret that I will i>e unable to appear in person before

your subcommittee on April 2-V20. due to the fact that I must preside at hearings of the Senate Small Business Committee.

As you are no doubt aware. I have been among those who hnre supported

proposals to establish a mid-decade census in the past and have, together with

Senator Thomas Kuchel. It-Calif., introdueed S. 1400.

I am sure there is no necessity to impress upon you and your able snlx-ommittee the many valid evidences of the need for obtaining more up-to date

statistics on population, housing and employment.

For the record. S. 1400 calls for establishing a quinquennial census in 1008.

1t>T."i. and every ten (10) years thereafter.

Again, let me state that the factual situation presents a clear record of need

for the establishment of a mid-decade census. Allow me. as a member of the

Senate, to extend my support for your efforts. We, of course, will do our part

in this chamber.

Sincerely yours,

GEORGE A. SMATIIEHS.

U.S. Senator.
MID-DECADE CENSUS 49

STATEMENT OP HON. ABRAHAM A. RIBTCOFF, A SENATOR IN CONGRESS FROM THE

STATE OF CONNECTICUT

I appreciate the opportunity to express my support for H.R. 7659, a bill to

provide for a mid-deeade census of population, unemployment, and housing.

In the Senate I have introduced my own hill on this subject. S. r.Nfi. It would

authorize the Secretary of Commerce to take an urban census in 1967 and every ~>

years thereafter on population, housing, employment, welfare recipients, community health facilities, and other matters the Secretary may deem appropriate

after consultation with the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development; and

the Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare.

The policies and programs of the Federal Government can be effective only if

they are based on accurate and up-to-date information. It has now been 7 years

since the last census was taken. Richard Scammon, former director of the Census

Bureau, told my subcommittee last November that in all probability more than

half the people in the country had moved at least once during this time. Yet in

assessing the need for Federal programs and their impact, no notice is taken

of this fact. For the most part we are still operating with I960 census data.

The lack of small area data is an important handicap in formulating programs

to deal with problems of urban housing and redevelopment, health, transportation, education, welfare, and manpower training. The decennial census data is

focused on large areas and jurisdictions, such as States, major cities, and standard metropolitan statistical areas. The same is true of the current population

survey. We have no information which can apprise us of trends in urban neighborhoods. Such information is vital in dealing with conditions in our troubled

ghettos.

We also need timely data on the places which are increasing and decreasing

in population. This will enable governments at every level to adjust their plans

and programs in accordance with population shifts.

We undertake an agricultural census every 5 years. Today 70 percent of the

people live in the cities, but we know less about them than we do about farm

animals. This situation must not continue. We should provide for a mid-decade

census designed to supply the information policymakers and program administrators need to take effective action on our urban problems. H.R. 70."i9 can make

an important contribution toward this goal and deserves the support of the Congress and the administration.

Mr. Chairman, I would appreciate my bill. S. 5S6. being included in the record

of the hearings, and would hope that it, too, would receive serious consideration

during your subcommittee's deliberations.

fS. BS6. 90th Cong.. 1st sess.l

A BILL To provide for a census every 5 years of the Nation's urhan areas

7?r it enacted h» the Senate and House of Representative* of the Vnited State*

of America in Connects assemhled. That chapter 5 of title 13. United States Code,

is amended by adding after section 142 a new section as follows:

"Section 143. Urban areas

"The Secretary shall, in the year 1067 and every 5 years thereafter, take a

census of the Nation's urban areas. Each such census shall include data on

population, housing, employment, welfare recipients, community health facilities,

and such other matters as the Secretary shall, after consultation with the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and the Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare, deem appropriate."

SEC. 2. The analysis of suhchapter II of chapter ." of title 13. United States

Code, is amended by adding thereto a new item as follows:

"143. Urban areas."

STATEMENT OF HON. DANIEL K. INOT-YE. A SENATOR IN CONGRESS FROM THE

STATE OF HAWAII

Mr. Chairman, my interest in a mid-decade census arises from a realization

that more detailed and long-range planning must he done in all aspects of our

society. In recent years we are discovering how extremely mobile our population is and how srreatlv it fluctuates with the economic opportunities available

in anv given district. With shifts in population come manv disennilibriums in

highways, housing, recreation, schools, hospitals, and environmental controls.
50 MID-DECADE CENSUS

Hawaii is an example of the problems Which I believe are typical of any

community. Our resident population has increased 17.0 percent since the U.S.

census in 1960. This is almost double the national average. Unlike other communities, ours is, in a sense, a pocket labor market in that the economy simply

is not varied or extensive enough to absorb large fluctuation in the size and

type of the labor force. Furthermore, it is much more difficult for the islander

to move from one island to another or to the mainland than it is for the mainlander to move by auto from one State to another. Consequently, the slightest

fluctuation has a dramatic effect on welfare and unemployment compensation.

As a result, my State is obligated to do more long-range planning than has been

necessary in many other communities.

I believe, however, that the expense and Inefficiency and the breakdown in

neighborhood relationships are serious in any place and that steps should be

taken to reduce them as much as possible. Clearly, a more up-to-date checking of

population shifts, coupled with the distributions of family income, are part of

a variety of things which should be done. Congress will be obliged in the near

future to spend billions of dollars in assisting the rehabilitation of our cities,

programs which to l>e of maximal effectiveness must be based on careful population studies. I believe, therefore, that the expenses incurred in conducting this

effort are wise expenditures and will, in the long run. pay for themselves.

STATEMENT ON THE NEED FOR A MID-DECADE CENSUS, BT HON. ROBERT C. BVRD, A

SENATOR IN CONGRESS FROM THE STATE OF WEST VnunxiA

[From the Congressional Record. Apr. 6. 1007]

THE NEED FOR A MID-DECADE CENSUS

Mr. BYRD of West Virginia. Mr. President, the other day I had need to know

the population of my State, West Virginia; so I called the Census Bureau. They

told me West Virginia's population in 1960 was 1,860,421. But 1960 was 7 years

ago, and I was interested in the population today, or as close to today as possible. The Census Bureau people told me they estimate the population as of last

July at 1,794,000.

The l>est they could offer was an educated guess. It may be close to the actual

population, but it is still an estimate. For Raleigh County or the town of Sophia,

they do not even have any guesses. Nothing more recent than the figures from

the 1960 census.

As a matter of curiosity, I inquired how many pigs there are in the State•

and how often they are counted. I learned that the pigs were counted at the end

of 1964 and at the end of 1959, just 5 years apart. The pig population in 1959

had been 148.238, and 5 years later it had dropped to 77,791.

The Census Bureau counts pigs every 5 years•but counts people only once in

10 years. This is the timetable established•not by the Bureau of the Census, but

by Congress. If it seems to represent a distorted sense of values•that pigs should

be counted twice as often as people•let us not look elsewhere to point the finger

of blame. The timetable is established here, in Congress.

The Constitution of the United States, in article I, provides for an enumeration of the population of the Nation at intervals of 10 years, as the basis for determining representation of States in the House of Representatives.^ That decision was made nearly 180 years ago: there should be an enumeration of the

imputation at 10-year intervals. For its time, that provision was forward looking.

It was progressive. But things have changed in 180 years. In fact the need for

more facts about the Nation became apparent to the early leaders of our Government within a few years after the Constitution was adopted. Congress ordered that the decennial census of 1810 be broadened to include manufacturing•

and in 1840, a Census of Agriculture was added to the decennial census.

Several decades ago. it became apparent that information concerning farms and

factories gathered at intervals of 10 years was not adequate, things were changing too rapidly, so this body determined that these censuses should be taken at

intervals of 5 years. The Bureau of the Census now conducts censuses of several

broad subjects every 5 years•censuses of agriculture, manufactures, retail,

wholesale and service trade, transportation, and a census of State and local
MID-DECADE CENSUS 51

governments. But the law still requires that the Census Bureau wait 10 years

between censuses of population.

Bills have been introduced in each of the recent Congresses to amend the Census Act, title 13 of the United States Code, to provide for a census of population

at the mid-decade. In the last Congress, no less than six bills were introduced

providing for a mid-decade census of population, unemployment, and housing.

These bills, like those introduced in earlier Congresses, failed to reach a vote.

The House of Subcommittee on C«nsus and Statistics of the Committee on Post

Office and Civil Service conducted hearings during May of 1065 on the bill U.K.

0183 of the 89th Congress which would have provided for a mid-decade census

of population, unemployment, and housing. The chairman of the subcommittee

was the Honorable Harley O. Staggers, of West Virginia. The report on the

hearings provides a fairly comprehensive survey of the viewpoints as they existed

at that time, with statements from nine principal witnesses who appeared before

the committee, plus 58 written statements.

In summary, everyone was in favor of a mid-decade census except the spokesmen for the administration. The position of the administration at that time was

that a mid-decade census of population, unemployment, and housing was not required, and that adequate information could be provided at considerably lower

cost by means of sample surveys.

That was the administration's stand in May of 1965•almost 2 years ago.

But today, 1967, the administration has changed its position and joined the

majority. It has sent a proposed measure to this body which would provide for

a census of population, unemployment, and housing to be taken every 10 years,

beginning in 1975. Thus, this bill comes to the Senate from the administration

itself. It is presently pending In the Post Office and Civil Service Committee,

awaiting review.

If the dialog of 2 years ago were to be reenaeted today, it seems the testimony

would be preponderantly in favor of a mid-decade census. I commend the leaders

of the administration for their wisdom, their courage, and their integrity in

reversing their position, and, becoming supporters rather than opponents of a

mid-decade census.

If the provisions of the administration-proposed bill become law, censuses of

population, unemployment, and housing would be taken in 1970. in 1975, in 19.80,

1985, and every 5 years thereafter, instead of the present 10-year intervals•

1960. 1970, 1980, and so on. Reapportionment of seats in the House of Representatives and redistricting, however, would continue to be based on the decennial censuses, taken in years ending In zero.

It is pertinent to ask : How much would a mid-decade census cost?

In 1965, the Director of the Census estimated the cost at $60 to $100 million,

for a census containing fewer questions than are included in a decennial census.

The 1960 census cost about $102 million, and if the mid-decade census were to include as many questions and as many tabulations, the cost would be over $100

million, because wages are higher and there are more people to be enumerated.

In the 1960 census, about half the cast was for gathering the data and the other

half represented the cost of recording the data, tabulating it and publishing the

results, in about 140,000 pages of printed statistics•statistics for the Nation, for

each State, each county, city. town, metropolitan area, for each census tract,

and in the larger cities, for each city block.

We know from the 1960 census a great deal about the Nation's people, their

jobs, and their housing•as things were 7 years ago. But the situation today is

changed from 7 years ago.

Sample surveys indicate that about one-fifth of the people move every year.

AtMmt one-half of the people move in the course of 5 years. Most of them merely

move to a different house or apartment in the same area, but some move to a

different county, some move to a different State, or, a different part of the

country.

During the 10 years between the censuses of 1950 and 1960. half of the counties of the United States lost population. The metrojiolitan areas in general Increased in population, but most of this growth took place in the suburbs; most

of the larger central cities lost population. The number of farms decreased and

so did the number of people living on farms.

We know most of these changes have continued In the 1960's. for trends can

be measured fairly accurately for the Nation as a whole, but the amount of in-
52 MID-DECADE CENSUS

formation decreases a.s we look at States, and it decreases still further as we

consider counties, cities, and towns.

And even if we might have confidence in estimates of the numbers of people

within a State or metropolitan area we know almost nothing about the changes

in the Characteristics of the people since I960.

What was the median income of the people of Charleston, \V. Va.. last year?

Did it increase over 1900? Nobody knows. What proi>ortion of West Virginia's

young people are attending college? Is the proportion increasing at the same

rate as in other States? Noliody knows. What share of the families in Charleston or in the State of West Virginia now have incomes below $3,000? Nobodyknows. We know these things as they were in l!KiO. But not for any more recent

yea r.

The Senate will be asked during the next few months to appropriate money

which will be distributed to States and local governments to help meet, local

needs: more jobs, more training in occupation skills, better schools, better care

for the elderly or for the sick. These Federal appropriations will amount to

$11 billion or more. About $14 billion will be allocated from Federal and State

funds to local governments•-most of it based on the number of people in an

area and the needs of those |>eople•the jieople and their needs as they existed

7 years ago when the last census was taken. Each year, the information which

guides us grows more and more out of date. The fog of uncertainty becomes

ever more dense with the passing of time.

If at any time during the early liMiO's, the 87th, the- 88th, or the 89th Congresses

had seen fit to enact legislation calling for a mid-decade census to lie initiated

in 1865 or even 1966, our appropriations this year would be made with much

greater understanding as to location and nature of the needs.

An investment of $100 million in a mid-decade census in the 1960's would

have ltcen useful In guiding Federal appropriations of jterfoaps $00 billion over

a .1-year period. It would seem reasonable to spend one dollar to learn where

and how to spend $000 more wisely.

The cost of a mid-decade census would be justified for the benefit of the Congress alone, but the benefits would be proliferated and multiplied as the results

were used by State governments•and to an even greater extent by agencies

of local governments.

The need for current information at the local level is indicated by the fact

that since the 1000 census, the Census Bureau has conducted for cities, towns,

counties, and other local jurisdictions more than 1.200 special censuses at the

expense of the local governments. Several hundred more will be conducted

during calendar year 1907.

These special censuses are little more than head counts, providing information

as to the number of people by age. race, and sex. but providing no information

concerning employment, housing, occupation, or education.

The published hearings of the House Subcommittee on Census and Statistics

of 2 years ago provide an abundance of evidence that local government officials

feel strongly the need for population data more often than once in 10 years.

The mayor of New York City wrote on April 8.1066 :

"Data from the 1900 census are now too old to have substantial value. When

we need data on the age and ethnic composition of the population for small areas

within the city•we may be misled rather than guided in our planning."

The managing director of the State of Connecticut Development Commission wrote:

"We are deeply engaged in promoting and assisting municipal and regional

planning. In a rapidly growing State such as Connecticut we believe It is dangerous to base research and planning on census data which can be as much

as 10 years old."

The mayor of Chicago wrote:

"We are currently engaged in programs of housing and urban renewal, mass

transportation, air and water pollution, urban opportunity, education, health

and welfare, all essential for the development of a better city and for the creation of n better life for all our citizens, and all dependent on current facts.

We cannot afford costly errors which may be made because we are not willing

to spend the money for a program which will help to avoid them."

The director of planning for Eos Angeles County wrote this opinion in 1065:

"The I960 census, now 5 years old is of little use in many areas snch as southern

California where there is 'so much employment and housing mobility."
MID-DECADE CENSUS 53

The executive director of the American Public Health Association wrote

in a statement:

"It is bordering upon the irresponsible to finance and to conduct programs

whether in public health or any of the other extremely important and essential

programs throughout these United States without the very latest in information as to how many [arsons are where."

From the private sector of the economy there also were many similar expressions of opinion. The vice president of the Real Estate Research Corp. wrote:

'•The speed, size, and characteristics of changes which have occurred since

the last census are monumental. No one can jKissibly grasp their significance

or deal effectively with our present and future development without the overview and perspective provided through a census."

A spokesman for the Nation's largest telephone company rejwrted how his

organization and its local sul>sidiary companies made use of data from the 1960

census in handling their new construction and installation of equipment•which

involves something like 800,000 separate projects and an investment of more

than .$3..r> billion a year. With an investment so large, he wished information

could be available more often than once in 10 years, and he was an emphatic

supiKirter of a mid-decade census.

One of the most enlightening portions of testimony came from Dr. Philip

Hauser. of the University of Chicago. Dr. Hauser was Acting Director of the

Bureau of the Census at the time of the 19T>0 census, and now is director of

the Population Research and Training Center of the University of Chicago. I

commend his entire testimony to anyone who wishes to obtain a concise summary of the needs for information about people and housing, and how to obtain

it. I should like to quote only a brief portion :

"The need for a mid-decade census is represented by the following considerations:

"One. there never was a time in the history of this Nation when we experienced such rapid, complex and significant population changes.

"TWO, there never was a time when we had as many demands for the kind

of information that could be collected in the mid-decade census on the part of

Federal, State and local government, and the private sector of the economy and

society including business, industry, religion, education, recreation, welfare.

"Three, there never was a time when there were as many specific programs

affecting the economy and welfare of the people of the United States on a Federal. State and local level•requiring this kind of information as a sound basis

for policy information and action."

Those words are from one of the Nation's leading authorities on iiopulation

statistics and their uses.

Certainly no Member of this body needs to be reminded of the multiplicity of

Federal programs aimed at improving the economy and quality of life for the

American people, and of the need for accurate up-to-date information to guide

those programs, and to guide our consideration of them.

A major fact to be kept in mind is that most of these programs, while they

are nationwide in scope, actually are implemented at the local level. So information about national trends is not enough. There is need for information aljout

what is happening in a city, in a county, a metropolitan area•what is happening in a neighborhood.

If only national or regional, or large area statistics were needed then sample

surveys would be enough. The Census Bureau gathers statistics and issues reports on the Nation's income, educational level, school attendance and many

other aspects of population at frequent intervals, based on information gathered

from about one household in a thousand. This type of sample produces figures

that are accurate for the Nation.

But if local governments and local businesses are to have information about

each neighborhood in a city or a metropolitan area then the most practical thing

to do is to take a complete census gathering information about all the members

of every household•their age, race, sex, family relationship, and marital status.

Data gathered from one household in four provide accurate statistics for the

areas called "Census tracts." which are roughly equivalent to neighborhoods.

This is the pattern of census taking and reporting that was followed in the

1960 census and will be repeated in the 1970 census. It is the pattern that la

implicit in the bill proposing a mid-decade census In 1975, 198T>. and every 10

years thereafter.
54 MID-DECADE CENSUS

The hill provides only for the three broad subjects, population, unemployment,

and housing. Each of these can be divided into many parts.

The Census Bureau has reported to the Congress that it plans to eonduet the

1!)70 Decennial Census principally by mail, but that upward of 100,000 temporary

census workers will be needed for several weeks. Some of these will be office

workers, some will visit households which fail to return their questionnaires,

and in some areas, especially rural areas, census takers will be needed for the

entire enumeration.

It seems likely that a similar number of workers would be needed 5 years later

for a inid-deeade census, more than 100,000 short-term workers. Whatever the

total cost of the census, there would be many millions of dollars of additional income for thousands of families distributed throughout the I'nited States more

or less in proportion to the population.

STATEMENT OF HON. CAM. 1). PKRKINS, A REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS FROM THE

STATE OF KENTUCKY

My interest in mid-decade census legislation is based on the need of the

Federal and State Governments to identify as precisely as possible the locution

und proitortion of educational problems and the needs arising from unemployment. The only source of accurate small-area data on a nationally consistent

basis is the national census of population, unemployment, and housing, which as

you know is taken only once every 10 years. We are in the bad statistical years

after the midpoint in the decade, We have to rely on figures that were gathered

in 1959 and 1060 when we consider new bills and programs. All of us do the best

we can and are as fair as possible when we pass new legislation. But we need to

sharpen our ability to do a better job. I think that the mid-decade census would

be an Important tool for the Congress, the executive branch, and local government

as well. In an era of the more than $100 billion budget, it seems to me that a

mid-decade census would more than pay for itself.

Let me give yon an example of what I mean. Teenage unemployment concerns

us all, especially the unemployment of youngsters who are no longer in school.

When a boy leaves schools he gets what the economists call an entry job in the

labor market, a job he will not do the rest of his life but one he takes until he

finds his lifework. These jobs are drying up. With a lack of these jobs, the transition from school to the world of work is blocked. But the starting thing is that

the only source of information we have on this problem both as to the youngsters

themselves and the type of jobs they get, on nn area basis, is contained in the

national census which is taken only once every 10 years. After 5 years, there is

a lack of accurate information on the teenage job hunter and how he is faring.

Interested local citizens, businessmen, local school superintendents are not interested in national estimates. They have to have a reasonably up-to-date local

picture of local problems. In a technological age that rapidly changes the nature

of opportunities around us, we have to have n national census every 5 years.

Mid-decade census legislation is important now because even though it will

not take effect until 1975, the planning for the 1970 census is going on now. That

planning will be changed greatly if it is known that comparison studies can

be made between 1970 and 1975 figures. If we miss our opportunity in this session of the Congress other Members will be arguing about the same problem in

1975. We missed an opportunity in the 1960's; we shouldn't miss the opportunity

for the 1970's. To illustrate the need for current statistical data. I refer to the

committee's attention hearings of the General Subcommittee on Education conducted during the 89th Congress in our efforts to find the most equitable means

of making grants to local educational agencies on the basis of educational disadvantage in schools reflected by census data as to the numbers of children

coming from low-income families who attended the schools of such agencies.

Because of the correlation between educational achievement and income, such

a means of distribution effectively concentrates Federal dollars where educational opportunities need to be strengthened.
MID-DECADE CENSUS 55

STATEMENT ON MID-DECADE CENSUS, BY HON. THADDEUS J. DULSKI, A

REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS FROM THE STATE OF NEW YORK

[From the Congressional Record of Apr. 12. 1967]

RESOLUTION IN SUPPORT OF A 1975 CENSUS OF POPULATION AND A

MID-DECADE CENSUS

(Extension of Remarks of Hon. Thaddens .1. Dulski. of New York, in the

House of Representatives, Wednesday, Apr. 12, 1967)

Mr. DULSKI. Mr. Speaker, under leave to extend my remarks. I wish to include a resolution adopted by the Erie County Planning Advisory Board, in

Buffalo, N.Y., In support of a 1970 census of population and a mid-decade census.

This board, in carrying out its responsibilities as an adviser to the county of

Erie on development plans and programs, has observed that accurate and up-todate population information is a key factor in community planning. It has also

found that our Federal population census every 10 years is often unreliable as

a tool of analysis in the latter part of a decade.

The resolution follows:

"RESOLUTION IN SUPPORT OF A 1975 CENSUS OF POPULATION AND A

MID-DECADE CENSUS

"Whereas, the Federal decennial census of population has been the principal

authoritative source of data on the numbers and characteristics of the population in the local governments of our State, and

"Whereas, it is well known that the Nation's population is growing rapidly

with continuing shifts of population within the Nation and within regions, and

"Whereas it is also well known that the numbers and characteristics of population are the major concern of public planning agencies and many private organizations in their planning to meet the future needs of their areas, and

"Whereas a population census every ten years Is not frequent enough to provide useful information to public and private agencies, particularly near the end

of a decade, often requiring the expense of a special census at that time, and a

more frequent nationwide count would mitigate this problem:

"Therefore, be it

"Resolved, That•

"1. The Erie County Planning Advisory Board supports the idea of a middecade population census, as a practical means for providing better information

to the county of Erie in its planning and research activities; and

"2. The authorization by the Congress for a population census in 1975 is si>ecifically endorsed; and be it

"Resolved, further, That copies of this resolution be forwarded to the appropriate Members of Congress, the I'.S. Department of Commerce, and a notice of

this action be supplied to all local planning agencies for their information.

"Adopted by the Erie County Planning Advisory Board, January 27, 1907."

STATEMENT OF HON. ARNOLD OLSEN, A REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS

FROM THE STATE OF MONTANA

I support our colleague, the Honorable William J. Green of Pennsylvania, in

legislation he has Introduced. The hill is H.R. 7(559. It provides for a mid-decade

census of population, unemployment, and housing in the year 1975 and every 10

years thereafter. In other words, the bill provides for a 5-year census of our

population.

It is now almost 3 years ago, that I addressed the House pointing out that

we badly need a national census of this kind. Quite understandably in the 89th

Congress we were concerned with other priority legislation and therefore could

not act on a 5-year census bill. But, in the legislation we passed, we intensified
56 MID-DECADE CENSUS

the need. The programs we initiated can only be implemented and pursued in the

future through the use of adequate statistics. And, 10 years between population

censuses is entirely too long to wait.

I am glad to say that a Dumber of members of the House have joined the

Gentleman from Pennsylvania. Mr. Green, in introducing 5-year census bills

also. They are Mr. Fuqun (H.R. 593) and Mr. Pool (H.R. 1087) who introduced

earlier versions, and Mr. Xix (H.K. "(Mil), Mr. Udall (H.R. 7682), Mr. Braseo

(U.K. 7<i(S.'i), Mr. Perkins (U.K. 7004). Mr. Button (H.R. 7668), and I (H.R. 70(50)

who introduced the administration's draft. I am glad to note that the administration is in favor of a 5-year census.

There are many needs for 5-year census statistics•the planning of the

private industry of our country and of Federal. State, and local governments; more up-to-date statistics for our programs of health, education, welfare

and poverty, housing, and transportation; and statistics to help cope with the

problems of our cities. But, in conclusion, I want to emphasize that the greatest

need is for small area statistics•statistics for counties, cities, metropolitan nreas,

census tracts, blocks, and other subdivisions closest to each citizen of the United

States and closest to each of us here.

STATEMENT OK How DOXAI.II G. BROTZMAN, A REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS FROM

THE STATE OF COLORADO

Mr. Chairman. I am pleased to present this testimony in support, of H.R. 7659,

to provide for a mid-decade census of population, unemployment and housing

beginning in 1075 and every 10 years thereafter. I have introduced a similar bill,

H.R. 0100. and am pleased that the subcommittee is holding these hearings on

this very important matter.

When the census was conceived, it was adequate for the Nation's needs. But

today, with a highly mobile and fast-growing population, it simply is not adequate. Typically, it is badly in error 5 years after it is taken.

This is particularly harmful in States which are gaining population more

rapidly than the national average. The rapid growth of my own district since

1900 is a stunning example of this situation.

I represent the Second Congressional District in Colorado. This district is

comprised of six counties and encompasses the Denver suburbs.

Based on the number of postal patrons in my district, estimating that each

mailing address serves between three and four persons, the Second District of

Colorado contains over 050,000 persons today. This would make it one of the

most populous in the Nation. Based on the 1000 census, the Second District officially has only 438,074 persons. This would mean that it is slightly above the

national average for congressional district populations.

The last census was taken 7 years ago. It does not, it cannot represent an

accurate picture of America today. In 1900, the population of the United States

was just under 180 million. Today it is estimated at over 200 million•a growth

of more than 20 million persons in 7 years.

Because of our shifting and changing population, because of the movement

of people from the great core cities to the suburban areas and from the rural

areas to the metropolitan areas, we need a mid-decade census.

Information which can be supplied only by a census is needed to fairly administer both State and Federal Government programs. The same information

can be equally important to private industry in developing new technology and

marketing data.

Mr. Chairman, I think the time has come to establish a quinquennial census.

I am pleased to support this legislation and urge the committee to report this

bill favorably.

STATEMENT OF HON. SAM M. GIBBONS, A REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS FROM THE

STATE OF FLORIDA

Mr. Chairman, I appreciate this opportunity to present testimony before this

subcommittee on the proposal to establish a mid-decade census of population,

unemployment and housing starting in 1975.

The social and economic changes America has experienced during the last

two decades has rendered a national decennial census grossly inadequate to

meet the needs of business, labor, government, and research and planning

organizations.
MID-DECADE CENSUS 57

Since 1962, for example, there has been a dramatic increase in Federal programs to aid States and localities in such areas as education, health, regional

development, manpower training, urban renewal, housing, transportation and

resource development. Some $125 billion is spent annually on these and other

domestic programs by the Federal Government, the 50 State governments and

the 92,000 local governmental units. The 1960 census is used to determine eligibility to receive project grants and to calculate allocations.

However, population experts contend marked changes in America's profile

since 1960 have made these 7-year-old figures obsolete. Between 1960 and 1965

alone, the Nation's population showed a 100-pereent turnover. And, as families

move every 5 years, they collectively add 4 million babies each year. Since 1960

alone, America's population has increased by 20 million.

It seems clear to me that Government administrators will continue to make

many costly errors in the conduct of vital Federal programs until Congress

approves the taking of a complete national census every 5 years.

We also must consider the changing needs of our free enterprise system.

Businesses, as they grow and diversify, find it increasingly important to have

current census information. The successful businessman today can no longer

base his decisions on short-run trends in the marketplace; he must prepare for

the long run. Yet, in the age of sophisticated computers and revolutionized management science, the success of long-range planning still depends on the quality

of data utilized. Business leaders consider a full mid-decade census a major boon

to their planning efforts.

Mr. Chairman, although we are now preparing for the 1970 census, it is not

too early for Congress to approve legislation authorizing preliminary planning

for a 1975 census. I am particularly happy that the administration, which had

been reluctant to supi>ort such a plan, now advocates it. The Congress and the

administration have given adequate study to the matter of adopting a mid-decade

census. I believe quick and affirmative action by the Congress is now the order

of the day.

THE COUNCIL OF STATE GOVERNMENTS,

Washington, D.C., April 6,1967.

Hon. WILLIAM J. GREEN,

House of Representatives,

Washington. D.C.

DEAR MR. GREEN : It is our understanding that hearings will be held late

this month on your bill, H.R. 7659, to provide for a mid-decade census of population, unemployment, and housing in the year 1975 and every 10 years thereafter. We should appreciate it very much if you would make it possible for

this letter to be in the record of the hearing.

In our view, a mid-decade census of population, unemployment, and housing

would be of great value to the States and their political subdivisions. At this

time of rapid change, Including change in both total population and concentration of that population in urban areas, a mid-decade census is a near essential. Difficult decisions in planning, zoning, location of hospitals, schools,

and other community facilities become more difficult as data become more out

of date. A mid-decade census, on the other hand, would have the effect of

assisting public officials hi reaching decisions more nearly related to the factual

situation as it might be at any given time in any given place.

Thank you for your consideration of this matter.

Tours very truly,

CHARLES F. SCHWAN. Jr.,

Director, Washington Office.

NATIONAL LEAGUE OK CITIES,

Washington, D.C, April 25,19GT.

Hon. WILLIAM GREEN,

JJouxr of Representatives,

Washington, D.C.

DEAR CONGRESSMAN GREEN : The National League of Cities wishes to submit

this letter to express its support of H.R. 7659 and other bills that prescribe

a mid-decade census of population, housing, and unemployment.

The National League of Cities represents 14.300 municipalities of all sizes

throughout the Nation. The program planning of each of these municipalities

lias become increasingly affected and more complicated by the dynamic changes
58 MID-DECADE CENSUS

in their populations. To this end, the National League of Cities at its December, 1966 Congress of Cities reinforced its earlier policy statements on iniddecade census by resolving that "because of the continuing high rate of population increase and the highly mobile nature of our population, Congress should

authorize a quinquennial census of population."

We are dealing with population make-ups which change dramatically weekly

if, indeed, not daily. The cities are faced with a galloping birth rate which

in the Nation, produces one new child every 8Va seconds. After all other factors'

including deaths, immigration, and emigration are considered, there still re^

mains a net increase in population of one person every 13% seconds, 6 400

people a day, or 2% million a year. But more important is the fact that! in

1060, approximately 70 percent of the population lived in 1 percent of the U.S

land area; namely, our already crowded urban areas. (Undoubtedly, this proportion has increased since 1960.) The population of our central cities is

increasing at the rate of 3.2 percent per year and our suburban communities

at the staggering rate of 17.7 percent a year.

Half of our population moves at least once every 5 years. Within and between

individual cities and suburbs, this mobility rate is even more dramatic. For

example, in a recent 1-year period, 24,165,000 people, or nearly 13 percent of

the total U.S. population, moved to a different location within the same county.

Combining these major population variables with socloeconomic factors presents a formidable planning challenge to our communities because public programs and services are expected to keep pace with the changes. It is therefore

vital that cities have available the most basic of took*•accurate statistical information•just to keep apprised of the problems they must face.

There is a more basic reason why cities need this census information, however. When last the league testified on this subject, we said:

"The Nation's local governments provide the immediate and vital necessary

services to America's increasingly urban civilization. At the local level, municipal

officials are engaged in the creation of a climate for the full development and

utilization of the human and economic resources of the Nation. Municipal officials do, indeed, accept and welcome this responsibility. In fact, they oppose

any effort to delete or delegate this primary aim of local government."

This basic responsibility has not shifted; efforts to meet it have, instead,

intensified and have also become more complex. Major decisions on schools,

sewer systems, housing projects, transportation and police protection services,

social welfare and health services, to name but a few, must be made, and all

require the best available factual data on the population these programs are

intended to serve. But the best decisions cannot be made (best in terms of

optimal service of clientele in the most prudent investment of already scarce

revenue) if 7-year-old data is used.

Any attempt to update the data collected in the 1960 census by projection is

only an educated guess. One regional planning agency, for example, is beginning

a study design in 1967 which will be continuous to 1970. But the agency is forced

to input 1960 census data or undertake an individual, expensive special census,

since 1970 census information will probably not be available until 1972. Hence,

this agency will have no current information for the entire period of its study.

It is clear that a mid-decade census would be a major step in solving similar

dilemmas for other agencies.

More frequent census has distinct economic advantages. It is obviously far

more efficient and economical for the Federal Government to conduct one census

every 5 years than have a great number of local units conducting individual

censuses at frequent intervals. Money and manpower for local censuses are an

unnecessary expenditure of scarce resources which could be more suitably

applied to analysis of data and program planning. It follows that a more frequent census producing current, universal, accurate data would significantly

improve the quality output received from investment of Federal grants in local

planning and other projects.

To date, there are roughly 220 grant-in-aid programs, a majority of which

include the Nation's cities as direct aid recipients. Grants are made only after

the preparation of plans or programs adhering to guidelines established by the

Congress and administering agencies. What types of information input do these

guidelines require? One of the best illustrative answers is the Demonstration

Cities and Metropolitan Development Act of 1966.
MID-DECADE CENSUS 59

The Department of Housing and Urban Development's guidelines list precisely the statistics required to evaluate applications for grants under the model

neighborhood area development program. These statistical requirements are

shown below.

MODEL NEIGHBORHOOD ABEA DESCRIPTION DATA

(From Appendix "A"•Application, "Improving the Quality of Urban Life,"

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Washington, D.C., 1960)

Population density:

Housing units per acre.

Percent units overcrowded (more than one person per room).

Family Income:

Total number of families.

Total number of families with income less than $3,000.

Families with income less than $3,000 as percent of total.

Families with income less than $1,000.

Families with income less than $1,000 as percent of total.

Persons aged 65 and over.

Percent of persons 65 and over receiving old-age assistance.

Crime and juvenile delinquency: Total number of persons under 18 years old.

Total number of juvenile arrests.

Juvenile arrests as a percent of persons under 18 years old.

Total number of persons 18 years old and over.

Total number of criminal arrests per year (excluding minor misdemeanors).

Criminal arrest as a percent of persons 18 years old and over.

Unemployment:

Males 14 and over In civilian labor force.

Percent of such males who are unemployed.

Females 14 and over In civilian labor force.

Percent of such females who are unemployed.

Welfare:

Persons under 21.

Percent of persons under 21 receiving AFDC payments.

Health:

Infant deaths as percent of births per year.

Incidence of tuberculosis per thousand population.

Housing:

All housing units.

Number of housing units which are substandard.

Percent of all housing units which are substandard.

Number of housing units which are dilapidated.

Percent of all housing units which are dilapidated.

Education:

Total number of persons 14 and 15 years old.

Percent of persons 14 and 15 years old enrolled in school.

Total number of persons 16 and 17 years old.

Percent of persons 16 and 17 years old enrolled in school.

Total number of persons 25 years old and over.

Percent of persons 25 and over with less than 8 years of education.

Clearly, most of this information can come only from either the 7-year-old

1960 census or from independent and specialized sources, such as local census or

labor department statistics.

In many Instances, it is entirely safe to state that old data is indeed not any

better than no data at all, yet municipal decision makers must continue to pump

this old data into their programs. Regretfully, all too frequently, the net result

is a medicine not competent to cure the ills for which it was prescribed because

the diagnosis was Inadequate.

All levels of government are faced with a critical evaluation and priority

establishing problem. Only with current, accurate and, I might emphasize,

universal data, can Congress, Federal agencies, and State and local governments

evaluate past program decisions and set priorities for future action. How do we

know, for example, whether the OEO program has been a success or a failure
60 MID-DECADE CENSUS

until locuHzed employment and other economic statistics have become available

from the 1970 census? Or how can cities evaluate urban renewal decisions until

a comprehensive housing census is made?

Finally, the achievement of national urban research depends upon current,

accurate data. NLC national municipal policy encourages "a continuing program of federally financed urban research, developed on a scale commensurate

with the research programs undertaken by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics. Research should be undertaken on the national dimensions of slums and

blight, the rate of blight formation, population trends, characteristics and

construction processes."

We need to develop an urban science which can show us how best to cope with

the Ills and problems of the city with our limited resources. Yet, to quote the

mayor of one of America's leading cities, the present state of this urban science

can be compared to the rudimentary knowledge of the human body at the time

of Harvey's discovery of the circulation of the blood: "We know a great deal,

not nearly enough, and much of it wrong." This infant urban science critically

needs a sound base for collection of urban information of all types. Congress,

last year, in the Demonstration Cities and Metropolitan Development Act of

1966, partially responded by providing funds for urban Information and technical assistance services. While the National League of Cities fully supports this

initial approach to providing for data collection and dissemination, we contend

that if suitable and productive information systems are to be developed, basic

universal, current data must also be available from a more frequent census.

This same conclusion has similar implications for the metropolitan expediter

program.

This measure, if enacted into law, will markedly contribute to improving the

quality of research, planning and decisionmaking for the critical needs of today

and tomorrow's urban life. To the other witnesses whose statements you have

received on this matter, we add the support of 14,300 city members of the

National League of Cities. We urge your prompt, favorable action on this

legislation.

Thank you.

Sincerely,

AIXEN E. PRITCHARD, Jr..

Assistant Executive Director.

STATEMENT OF TOXT T. DECHANT. PRESIDENT, NATIONAL FARMERS UNION

My name Is Tony T. Dechant and I am president of the National Farmers

Union.

I submit this statement in support of H.R. 7659, a bill which would provide

for a mid-decade census of population, unemployment, and housing commencing

in the year 1975.

Perhaps more poignantly than words, the graph accompanying this statement

(p. 61) which was prepared by the Department of Agriculture, shows the need

for a mid-decade census of our population.

This graph relates directly to world population as opposed to purely U.S.

population. But it is relevant as world populations will directly affect the

economic structure of the United States increasingly in the years ahead.

We have been continually reminded that world food production is not keeping:

pace with population growth. Sometime during the race to bring these two factors,

into balance, it will fall the task of the United States to provide food (even

beyond that which we are and have supplied) for export.

We will be running on a ''tight larder" inventory. The needs of our own people

must have priority and those needs can best be calculated by a census which is

current and allows the least risk of error to economists on the domestic food and

fiber requirements of our Notion.

In the interest of better planning of world and domestic food requirements,,

we recommend that this bill be passed into IHW.
MID-DECADE CENSUS 61

TWENTY CENTURIES OF

WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

BIL. PERSONS"

6

500 1000

YEAR

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

*f»*OJ£CrCD F«OM If«.

NEC. CHS 1730-63 I)

1500 |2000

1900!

1960*

ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE

INSTITUTE OF APPLIANCE MANUFACTURERS,

Washington, D.C., April 24,1961.

Hon. WILLIAM J. GBEEN,

House of Representatives,

Washington, D.C.

MY DEAR CONGRESSMAN GREEN : It is understandable that it would be impossible

for your committee to hear all the witnesses who may want to be heard pro and

•con on the establishment of a mid-decade census of population, unemployment,

and housing, starting with the year 1975 and thereafter. I shall, therefore,

merely submit this letter to report to you that the board of trustees of the

Institute of Appliance Manufacturers, with only one dissenting vote, authorized

me to express the association's approval of H.R. 7659 which would provide for

such a mid-decade census.

Our association and others with which we are closely allied in the appliance

field have been important users of appliance statistics. For example, in 1960 we

published in conjunction with the S. J. Tesauro & Co. of Detroit a 51-volume

supplement to the censuses of housing and population in which we cross-tabulated

most of the items from each census and combined them in an important statistical study which we called "People and Homes in the American Market."

Whether we shall make such an elaborate study in 1970 has not yet been

decided, but it is almost certain that we shall supplement and cross-tabulate

the two censuses to make them of ever-increasing value to the manufacturers

of appliances and to homebuilders as well.

I hope, therefore, that you will accept this letter as a strong endorsement of

H.R. 7659 and publish it as part of the committee record and, if possible, introduce it into the Congressional Record.

If yon would like any additional information from our office or if your associates would like to see a sample of the volumes of "People and Homes in the

American Market," we will be glad to have a call from you.

Cordially.

PAULINE DUNCKEL, Executive Secretary.
62 MID-DECADE CENSUS

STATEMENT OF ALBERT MINDLIN, CHAIRMAN OF THE COMMITTEE ON SMALL AREA

STATISTICS OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION

The American Statistical Association is the oldest, largest, and principal professional organization of statisticians in the United States. The following statement is submitted by the committee on small area statistics of the association,

but the committee is not speaking, of course, on behalf of the entire association.

The committee wishes to place into the record of this hearing its strong endorsement of a 5-year national census of population and housing.

The "urban revolution" in American society that has resulted in massive shifts

of population to metropolitan areas, in kaleidoscopic mobility and changes in

the characteristics of our urban centers, and in the tremendous escalation of

urban problems to the point where they are now and in the foreseeable future

a dominant concern of domestic American politics, is too well known to require

elaborate statement here. State and local government expenditures rose from $48

billion in 1957 to $70 billion in 1962, an increase of 46 percent in 5 years. A

mere listing of some of the national legislation since 1960 and attendant Federal

expenditures can suffice to dramatize the impact of the urban revolution on the

Federal Government•the Public Works and Economic Development Act, the

Economic Opportunity Act, the Higher Education Act, the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, the Urban Mass Transportation Act, the Older Americans

Act, the Juvenile and Youth Offenses Act, the Manpower Development and Training Act, the Crime Control Act, the Mental Retardation Facilities and Community Health Services Act, the medicare and medieaid amendments to the

Social Security Act, the various planning and other amendments to the National

Housing Act, the planning amendments to the Highway Act, the community renewal programs, the creation of the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the proposed "demonstration cities" legislation. This is by no means a

complete list of recent legislation calling for new urban programs and activities

by State and local governments. Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments rose from $4 billion in 1957 to $8 billion in 1962 to $11 billion in 1965,

and to $14 billion in the President's budget for 1967.

The information about the community that Government needs in order to

research, plan, administer, and evaluate these vast new programs has escalated

in parallel with the new activities themselves•and by far the outstanding and

major source of such information is the national censuses of population and

housing. These censuses provide an enormous array of demographic, economic,

and social information otherwise unobtainable. Their outputs are used not only

directly, but as benchmarks for intereensal estimates and long-range projections;

as sampling frames and universes for stratification and classification on which

other studies are based; as controls on other surveys, and in numerous other

ways. It is no exaggeration to assert categorically that the U.S. censuses of

population and housing constitute the informational cornerstone of most urban

social planning and evaluation carried on throughout the country. They constitute the principal data base supporting the vast Federal programs, the enormous

Federal expenditures, and the evaluation of the effectiveness of these efforts and

expenditures.

Under the dynamic circumstances of contemporary American life, to obtain

only once every 10 years the vitally needed social and economic information

underpinning public and private policy in the geographic and subject detail

required, is a glaring anachronism. The Bureau of the Census now conducts

many censuses•of population, housing, business, manufacturing, governments,

transportation, and agriculture. Everyone of these except the population and

housing censuses is authorized and conducted each 5 years. Yet for the success

of the vast and complex programs generated by the urban revolution in every

city of our land, the population and housing censuses are by far the most

important of all information sources.

There is no adequate substitute for these censuses. The computer revolution is

today greatly accelerating the mechanization of State and local governmental

operations, with an accompanying increase in statistical byproducts; State and

local statistical file systems, while still rare, are steadily increasing. But even if

State and local governments were ideally mechanized (which will not occur for

many years), they coud not come close to providing the necessary detailed population and housing information obtained in the national censuses, because the

bulk of such information is not gathered by State and local operating programs.

Furthermore there is not now, nor in the foreseeable future, scientific method-
MID-DECADE CENSUS 63

ology for adequate secondary intercensal estimates of the information in the

geographic and subject detail necessary- There is some demographic theory to

guide intercensal estimates for a few years beyond the census benchmarks in

basic population characteristics•total population counts and, to some extent,

age, sex, and color counts. But beyond 2 or 3 years past the census benchmarks,

these become very unreliable•and this unreliability greatly increases as the

geographic area of estimate narrows•from metropolis to county to city to

neighborhood. For example, all through the 1950's numerous estimates were made

by competent professionals, of populations in our large cities. For the most part

they were wide of the mark. The shock of truth of the 11)60 census was great.

The committee may recall the clamor of disbelief in the large cities that greeted

the 1960 census. The Census Bureau spent substantial unforeseen time and funds

in postenumeration checks in various large cities, with little change in results.

When demographic methods are so unreliable in the elemental area of basic

population, where some body of scientific methodology exists, how much more

unreliable must they be in fields where the available models and methodology are

even more primitive, for example, in estimates and projections of employment,

income, household formation, overcrowding, the interrelation of these and their

small area geographic distributions. Yet to administer, not only the vast new

programs which the urban revolution has produced, but even long-recognized

basic governmental functions, estimates and projections must be made. Schools,

hospitals, sewers, reservoirs, roads, transit systems take years to build. Any

sensible budget process must anticipate needs and revenues. The extreme dynamism of contemporary American urban society has made more frequent reliable

demographic, social, and economic information on a small area basis a critical

necessity.

It is in this perspective that the cost of a mid-decade census must be considered. Billions of dollars, Federal, State, and local, are spent yearly on programs

which rest on the information provided by the census. As the intercensal years

go by, especially in the last half of the decade, these vast sums are spent on an

extremely shaky information base. Great additional expenditures of money, time

and energy are spent on intercensal small area estimating efforts, by Federal,

State, and local agencies, with frequently most unsatisfactory results. The vast

bulk of these statistical expenditures would be minimized by a mid-decade census.

Thus to focus only on the out-of-pocket cost of a mid-decade census would indicate a dismaying failure to grasp the tremendous price that we pay for not having a mid-decade census.

Suggestions have been made to minimize the decennial gap by a great expansion of sample surveys. This is basically unfeasible, because many of the most

pressing informational needs are on a truly small area basis•cities, wards,

census tracts, neighborhoods, even blocks. Planning, administration, evaluation,

and improvement of such vast programs as mass transit systems, elementary and

secondary education improvements, neighborhood multiservice centers, community renewal and demonstration cities programs, the whole panoply of urban

renewal activities, juvenile delinquency control, racial integration, and numerous

other similar programs He at the very heart of the urban revolution and require

truly small-area knowledge in city and suburb. National, regional, or even State

sample surveys will not touch this need.

The cities cannot themselves provide the necessary information. A census Is a

highly complex undertaking, requiring great professional skill and considerable

funds. Very few cities have the know-how or facilities for such an undertaking,

or the money to finance it. State and local government expenditures have increased at a substantially higher rate than domestic Federal expenditures; and

the relative narrowing of the cities' tax base with the "flight to the suburbs" of

middle- and high-income families, the relative increase in the cities of the young,

the old, and the low income, all of whom produce increased governmental expenditures and decreased tax resources•these are well-known fundamental problems in city administration. The very existence of the imposing edifice of Federal

legislation, mentioned above, is dramatic evidence that the local communities

must look to the Federal Government for help In coping with the urban revolution. The Federal Government must accept the financial responsibility for a middecade census.

This statement has not addressed itself to any particular bill now before the

Congress: nor has it addressed itself to any specific proposals for the content or

conduct of a mid-decade census•although in general such a census probably

need not be as detailed in content as the decennial census. This statement has
64 MID-DECADE CENSUS

sought to present to the Congress the view of professional statisticians. As citizens and as professionals we are responsive to the new dynamic needs of contemporary urban American society. We urge upon the Congress that a middecade census is a necessity to enable the statistical profession to provide an

adequate Informational underpinning of public policy in the decades ahead.

FEDERAL STATISTICS UBEBS' CONFERENCE,

Washington, D.G., April 25,1967.

Hon. WILLIAM J. GREEN,

House of Representatives,

Washington, D.C.

DEAR MR. GREEN : We appreciate the opportunity of submitting a statement

expressing the views of the Federal Statistics Users' Conference on H.R. 7659

and other bills which would authorize a mid-decade census of population, unemployment, and housing.

FSUC is an association comprising approximately 160 organizations generally

classified as business firms, labor unions, and nonprofit research groups who have

a common interest in obtaining adequate, timely, and reliable information from

Federal statistical programs.

Our membership is highly diversified. More specifically, it includes representation from trade associations and industries engaged in : advertising, banking and

finance, insurance, manufacturing, retail trade, printing and publishing, economic and market research, et cetera. Almost every segment of the economy that

uses Federal statistics is represented in the conference.

Members of FSUC would make extensive use of statistical materials forthcoming from a mid-decade census. Such uses would be comparable to those for

data in the regular decennial censuses. Our members use regular census of population and housing data for the following eight major purposes (ranked in

order) :

Market planning and forecasting (83 percent).

Economic forecasting.

Population forecasting.

Market segmentation.

Small area market studies.

Buying power estimates.

Sampling.

Site location (41 percent).

In addition to these major uses, they also use such data for the following:

Educational planning.

Manpower and training needs.

Reference material for many undefined purposes.

Projecting mass transit, highway, open space, community facilities needs.

Selection of areas for direct mall promotion.

Company forward planning.

Historical analysis.

Occupational analysis.

Formation of economic and policy decisions.

Almost all of our members use the data on a broad basis such as citywide or

greater. However, 55 percent use the data on a small area basis such as tract

or block. Ranked in order, their use of small area data is as follows:

Tracts (38 percent).

Blocks (29 percent).

Counties (27 percent).

SMSA's.

City.

Enumeration district.

Pseudo tracts.

ZIP code area.

Governmental units.

School districts.

Minor civil divisions.

Regarding a mid-decade census, onr members have indicated that they would

not find either a simple head count of persons or a single count of housing units

adequate for their purposes. Only one-fourth of our members have indicated that

they would be satisfied with simple counts of persons or housing units.
MID-DECADE CENSUS 65

As the result of surveys conducted in 1962,1965, and 1966, we find nn Increasing

number of our members favor a mid-decade census. In 1962, only one FSUC member in three preferred a mid-decade census; in 1965, two in five preferred such

a census ; and in 1966, the figure was four out of five.

Some members, however, believe that a mid-decade census should not be of the

same scope as a decennial census. Others would prefer to strengthen the current

population series of the Census Bureau because they feel the cost would be less.

One fear expressed by some members is that a mid-decade census might "endanger

current programs."

In conclusion, I wish to say that as regular users of all types of Federal statistics, our members recognize the need for and value of current, adequate data

to measure growth, progress and change in the economy, particularly to aid In

the making of policy decisions and the implementation of economic programs.

Our concern is that policy decisions and implementation of programs be based

upon the best measures of the economy it Is possible to obtain.

In the past several years, a great deal of legislation has been passed dealing

with problems of housing, health, education, welfare, and poverty. New and

expanded programs in these areas require a great deal of factual information,

the latest of which often is available only from the 1960 Censuses of Population

and Housing. Certain aspects of a number of these programs have called for

many kinds of new information as well as data on a local and regional area basis

which has not been available. The information needs are becoming increasingly

apparent, and certainly the dearth of current, adequate information must be a

real handicap to those responsible for the planning and execution of these important new programs.

With the rapidly changing social and market structure of our dynamic economy, it is imperative that more frequent benchmark data be available, and we

respectfully urge that middecade census legislation be given full consideration.

Sincerely,

JOHN H. AIKEN, Executive Director.

COMMONWEALTH OP PENNSYLVANIA,

STATE PLANNING BOARD, GOVERNOR'S OFFICE,

Harrisburg, Pa., April 7,1967.

Hon. WILLIAM J. OREEN,

Bouse of Representatives,

Washington, D.O.

DEAR MR. GREEN : As frequent users of Federal Information, we have found the

decennial census to be invaluable. Without it, our work and. In fact, the operation

of Pennsylvania State Government, would be severely handicapped.

The proposal to place the census on a 5-year, rather than a 10-year basis,

would, in my opinion, be the least expensive single action the Congress could take

to encourage a major improvement of State and local government in the Nation.

Although I have not had experience In the National Government, it seems to me

that the operation of the Federal Government would also be substantially aided

by a mid-decade census.

I therefore strongly urge the approval of H.R. 7659.

Sincerely yours,

MAKK HEYMAN,

Assistant Director.

STATE OF ILLINOIS,

DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,

Springfield, III, April 11,1967.

Hon. WILLIAM J. GREEN,

Bouse of Representatives,

Washington, D.C.

DEAR CONGRESSMAN GREEN : It is my understanding that you have recently

introduced a bill to provide for a mid-decade census starting in 1975. The passage

of such legislation would certainly aid the planning and development efforts of my

department, as well as agencies at the local level.

Our urban areas are changing too rapidly and our need for current socioeconomic data is too pressing to not consider the more frequent collection of certain

census data. Also, with the development of the hardware and software needed
66 MID-DECADE CENSUS

to rapidly process and manage data, it makes little sense to be hampered by

obsolete information.

My only suggestion with regard to H.R. 7659 would be to add employment and

income data to the mid-decade census. Many of the modeling efforts in the planning field depend largely on parameters established by such data.

Sincerely,

GENE GRAVES.

CITY OF DETROIT,

EXECUTIVE OFFICE,

April 11, 1967.

Hon. WILLIAM J. GREEN,

House of Representatives,

Washington, D.C.

DEAR CONGRESSMAN GREEN : I have reviewed II.lt. 7659 which I understand

you are sponsoring. We are in favor of your proposal for a mid-decade census.

In preparing plans for urban renewal and for model city programs, we find ourselves in constant need of current Information. For many things, the census is

our only source of facts. Often we have had to make do with a census 8 or 9

years old in areas which are in constant change.

The mid-decade census would solve the problem of using old facts which may

no longer mirror an existing condition.

Very truly yours,

HAROLD BLACK,

Coordinator, Community Development

UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA,

GRADUATE SCHOOL OF FINE ARTS,

Philadelphia, Pa., April U, 1967.

Hon. WILLIAM J. GREEN,

House of Representatives,

Washington, D.C.

DEAR CONGRESSMAN GREEN : I am glad to see that yon have introduced II.R.

7659, a bill to provide for a mid-decade census of population unemployment and

housing. This is very much needed by all city planning and transportation planning agencies, and I hope very much that it will be adopted. The requirements

of modern city planning for data are much more critical than in the past.

Planning can become much more responsible than it has ever been through

computerized analysis procedures which are being developed not only in the

transportation planning field, but in housing, urban renewal, and program

budgeting for health, welfare, and other public services.

The demonstration cities program which reinforces housing and social expenses in slum areas by having them planned jointly will require a kind of

planning that continues to watch progress to monitor change and to report

back desirable changes in policies or program emphases. Census information

10 years apart is inadequate for this purpose, and cities will be spending a

great deal of money for intercensus estimates at 5-year intervals.

Thank you for submitting this legislation.

Sincerely yours,

ROBERT B. MITCHELL.

CORNELL UNIVERSITT,

DEPARTMENT OF CITY & REGIONAL PLANNING,

April 13, 1967.

Hon. WILLIAM J. GREEN,

House of Representatives,

Washington, D.C.

DEAR CONGRESSMAN GREEN : I am writing to you to offer my strong support

for the forthcoming hearings on House of Representatives bill 7659. As a professor of sociology and of city and regional planning, as well as a member of

the City of Ithaca Planning Board, I am well aware of the increasing importance to our society of the provision of suitable statistics on a frequent and

regular basis.
MID-DECADE CENSUS 67

The establishment of a regular 5-year census on a national basis would provide a wealth of additional information for both the Nation and for localities

which would greatly aid in determining policies, intercensal changes in population location and composition, and needed additional research on matters pertaining to these events.

I support your efforts in introducing this bill most strongly and hope that

my comments may be of some small help In the hearings and later passage of

this measure

Sincerely yours,

AIX^N G. FELDT, Assistant Professor.

THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO,

Chicago, IU., April 10,1961.

Hon. WILLIAM J. GREEN,

House of Representatives,

Washington, D.C.

DEAR CONGRESSMAN GREEN : May I add my support to your proposed H.R. 7659,

for a continuing mid-decade census. This is absolutely essential in our fastmoving world if we are to effectively monitor the results of the many social

programs enacted by the Congress.

Sincerely,

BRIAN J. L. BERRY, Professor.

ALEXANDER & ALEXANDER, INC.,

Pittsburgh, Pa., April 10,1967.

Hon. WILLIAM J. GREEN,

Bouse of Representatives,

Washington, D.C.

DEAR SIR: It is my opinion that the bill, which you are sponsoring, is most

worthwhile, providing as it does for a mid-decade census of population, unemployment, and housing in 1975 and every 10 years thereafter. It would seem

very important that this information be available in this manner, and, therefore, wish to express my wholehearted support of H.R. 7659.

Sincerely yours,

JOHN W. HUNT.

POPULATION RESEARCH AND TRAINING CENTER,

AND CHICAOO COMMUNITY INVENTORY,

UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO,

Chicago. Ill, April 18, 1967.

Hon. WILLIAM J. GREEN,

House of Representatives,

Washington, D.C.

DEAR CONGRESSMAN GREEN : Your letter of March 27th inviting me to testify on

H.R. 7659 on April 26th was awaiting me upon my return from a field trip

abroad. I very much regret that during my absence from the country new university commitments make it impossible for me to come to Washington on

that day. Should you have additional hearings in the future, I would very much

appreciate the opportunity to testify, but under the circumstances I regret

that I am not able to accept your present Invitation.

Let me state, however, that I have previously testified on a similar proposal

which was before the 89th Congress. I still stand by that testimony which was

published in the committee hearings and believe that the need for quinquennial

censuses has become even more urgent in the time which has elapsed. I am

couvinced that the passage of H.R. 7659 would help to fill important information

gups and that the expenditure for quinquennial censuses would represent an

investment on which the returns would be many-fold.

Sincerely yours,

PHILIP M. HAUSER,

Director and Professor of Sociology.
68 MID-DECADE CENSUS

UNIVERSITY OP CALIFORNIA,

Berkeley, Calif., April 19,1967.

Hon. WILLIAM J. GREEN,

Bouse of Representatives,

Washington, D.C.

DEAR CONGRESSMAN GREEN : It has come to my attention that you have sponsored a bill in the current session of Congress that would provide for a sample

mid-decade census. I would like to register my support for this proposal. The

problems of metropolitan development and planning for public facilities with

which I am presently deeply concerned will be impossible to solve without adequate information about the system in which they occur. At the moment, planners

rely very heavily on the decennial censuses for such information. However, it is

clear that by the sixth or seventh year of the decade, for areas undergoing rapid

change, which of course, are those where urban problems typically occur, the

decennial census Information becomes out of date.

There seems to be good evidence that the use of sampling in the collection of

census information of all kinds has now reached a state where the results are

reliable and the costs relatively moderate. I would hope that the mid-decade

census might prove to be a valuable source of practical information for planning

and also a useful testing ground for new and improved methods of information,

collection.

Sincerely,

MICHAEL B. TEITZ,

Assistant Professor of City and Regional Planning.

ADVISORY COMMISSION ON INTERGOVERNMENT RELATIONS,

Washington, D.C, May 1,1967.

Hon. WILLIAM J. GREEN.

U.S. Rouse of Representatives,

Washington, D.C.

DEAR MR. CHAIRMAN : I am writing to present the Commission's views on H.R.

7650. a bill to authorize a mid-decade Federal census of population, unemployment, and housing.

The Commission views the census operation of the Federal Government as an

important intergovernmental activity, essential to effective cooperation and coordination among Federal, State, and local governments. Census data provide

the factual basis fur a multitude of policy decisions by the Congress, Governors,

mayors, and other Federal. State, and local officials and are required for the

development of long-range plans for public facilities and services at Federal.

State, and local levels: the allocation of grants-in-aid by Federal and State Governments : and the measurement of changing demands upon all governments as

a result of shifting population patterns. The question of the need for a middecade census of population, unemployment, and housing is therefore relevant

to the responsibilities of this Commission. It might be noted that there is a close

parallel between many of the requirements of individual governments and the

research needs of the Commission itself, since frequently we examine the same

questions of policy within the larger context of intergovernmental relations.

Because basic governmental problems at all levels are now and will continue

to be shaped by the dynamics of population change, more current statistical measures of the social, economic, and demographic characteristics of our citizenry nre

indispensable for designing and implementing governmental programs and policies

to meet these challenges. We emphasize the importance of more current data,

since the tempo of population movements is altering significantly the characteristics of urban as well as rural areas over short periods of time: yet only the

census of population and housing•of all the U.S. censuses•is taken as infrequently as once in 10 years.

The availability of current data on a national basis is important as research

functions become increasingly significant for local and State governments. But

we would call attention to the limited resources available to these units for basic

data gathering, particularly in small communities currently or prospectively ex-
MID-DECADE CENSUS 69

periencing rapid change. Furthermore, it is highly desirable for State and local

government research activities to be carried out on a standardized statistical

basis throughout the country in order to facilitate interarea comparisons and

establish a wide base for the kind of estimating and prediction which are required for planning and development. The strategic position of the Census Bureau

for providing the statistical tools is readily apparent

To summarize the view of the Commission, additional Federal census activities

are strougly supported to serve the needs of different levels of government in

carrying out their responsibilities and in cooperating with one another.

If we can be of further assistance to the committee in this matter, please call

on as.

Sincerely yours,

FARRIS BRYANT, Chairman.

THE AMERICAN PUBLIC HEALTH ASSOCIATION, INC.,

Washington, D.C., April 26,1967.

Hon. WILLIAM GREEN,

U.S. House of Representatives,

Washington, D.C.

DEAR MR. CHAIRMAN : Relative to the hearings presently being held by your

subcommittee on H.K. 7659, to provide for a mid-decade census of population,

unemployment, and housing, the American Public Health Association would once

again like to go on record as supporting this legislation. The detailed reasons

•for our position have been made clear to this subcommittee both in 1962 and in

1965 when hearings were held on bills with similar intent. With the everincreasing mobility of Americans, it becomes even more imperative than an

enumeration be conducted more often than at present in order to provide more

accurate statistics for administrators who must make projected plans, for

example, for health programs under their jurisdiction. Especially with the

enactment of such programs as Public Law 89-749, the Comprehensive Health

Planning Act, the need for a quinquennial census is intensified. This act can only

be implemented and pursued in the future through the use of adequate statistics.

It is, therefore, our most sincere hope that the Congress will enact H.K. 7659

without further delay.

For your further information, I am enclosing a copy of our official position

on this matter•a resolution adopted by the Governing Council of the American

Public Health Association in 1958.

It would be appreciated if our views could be made a part of the record of

testimony presented before your subcommittee relative to H.R. 7659.

Thank you.

Sincerely yours,

BERWTN F. MATTISON. M.D.,

Executive Director.

1968 A 5-YEAB CENSUS OF THE UNITED STATES

Whereas the distribution of the United States population continues to undergo

rapid change, and

Whereas an enumeration of the U.S. population every 10 years is too Infrequent

to provide base population data of requisite currency for the efficient planning

and administration of national. State, and local programs in public health,

welfare, and education, as well as in other areas of public need, all of which

involve huge expenditures of both public and private funds, and

Whereas all these needs require reliable nationwide population counts for

States, counties, and cities which are unobtainable from current population

surveys and estimating efforts: Now, therefore, be it

Resolved. That the American Public Health Association recommend a census

of the United States at least every 5 years after the 1960 decennial census to

provide, at least, counts by basic characteristics of the population in each county

and municipality; and that other organizations witb a special interest in

demographic data be advised of this resolution.
70 MID-DECADE CENSUS

STATE OF CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE,

Sacramento, Calif., April 18, 1967.

Hon. WILLIAM J. GREEN.

U.S. Bouse of Representative*,

Washington. D.C.

DEAR CONGRESSMAN GREEN : As one vitally Interested in good data In general

and professionally devoted to population work In particular, I heartily endorse,

your efforts in behalf of the 5-year census. We In California State government

are noticing an increasing dependence upon population data as the foundation

for planning at the local and State level.

As a member of the Small-Area Data Committee of the American Statistical

Association as well, as in my work with the State, I am aware of the difficulty

in making meaningful estimates for smaller areas as many as 5 years after the

decennial census. We in California have developed a modest census operation to

fulfill tills need.

When your subcommittee holds hearings in California, I hope I can be of

service to you.

Yours sincerely,

WALTER P. HOLLMANN,

Senior Demographic Analyst.

Mr. GREEX. The hearings on H.K. 7659 are now finished. The subcommittee is adjourned.

(Whereupon, at 11:40 a.m., the subcommittee was adjourned.)

o