Prepared by:

David C. Tamm

Kevin P. Milburn

Baker & O’Brien, Inc.

1333 West Loop South

Suite 1350

Houston, Texas 77027

Addendum to Potential Supply and

Cost Impacts of Lower Sulfur, Lower

RVP Gasoline

Prepared for

The American Petroleum Institute

March 2012
- i - 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................1

REGULATORY ASSUMPTIONS.........................................................................2

OTHER ASSUMPTIONS AND ANALYTICAL BASIS .............................................3

STUDY RESULTS .............................................................................................4

COMPLIANCE RESPONSE............................................................................................... 4

GASOLINE SUPPLY BALANCE AND REFINERY OPERATIONS.......................................... 6

REFINERY HYDROGEN REQUIREMENTS ........................................................................ 6

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ..................................................................................... 7

TOTAL COMPLIANCE COSTS.......................................................................................... 8

CONCLUSIONS.............................................................................................. 12

TABLES

TABLE 1   SENSITIVITY CASE 4 2016 SUMMER SUPPLY BALANCE

TABLE 2   SENSITIVITY CASE 4 2016 SUMMER REGIONAL FINISHED GASOLINE

QUALITIES AT REFINERY GATE (BEFORE ETHANOL IS ADDED)

TABLE 3   SENSITIVITY CASE 4 2016 SUMMER REGIONAL FINISHED GASOLINE

QUALITIES (INCLUDES ETHANOL)

TABLE 4   SENSITIVITY CASE 4 2016 SUMMER PRODUCTION
Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of 

Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline 

- 1 - 

INTRODUCTION

In July 2011, Baker & O'Brien, Inc. (Baker & O'Brien) completed a report titled, “The 

Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline” (the Original 

Report). The Original Report included a Base Case, a Study Case, and three Sensitivity Cases. 

The Study and Sensitivity Cases addressed a range of potential regulatory scenarios reducing 

both gasoline sulfur and Reid vapor pressure (RVP). The American Petroleum Institute (API) 

has engaged Baker & O'Brien to analyze an additional case (Sensitivity Case 4) in which only 

gasoline sulfur regulations are changed. 

General industry conditions, corporate profiles, geographic considerations, and unique 

refinery characteristics can influence potential responses to regulatory requirements. Therefore, 

Baker & O’Brien undertook a refinery-by-refinery approach in evaluating the potential impacts 

of lowering the specifications for sulfur and RVP in gasoline. Compliance options were 

evaluated and production estimates calculated for each refinery using Baker & O’Brien’s 

PRISMTM Refining and Marketing Industry Analysis System. The PRISM model is based on 

publicly-available information, and incorporates Baker & O'Brien's industry experience and 

knowledge. 

Baker & O’Brien conducted this analysis and prepared this report with reasonable care 

and skill, utilizing methods we believe to be consistent with normal industry practice. No other 

representations or warranties, expressed or implied, are made by Baker & O’Brien. All results 

and observations are based on information available at the time of this report. To the extent that 

additional information becomes available or the factors upon which our analysis is based change, 

our opinions could be subsequently affected. 

 

TM PRISM is a trademark of Baker & O’Brien, Inc. All rights reserved.
Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of 

Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline 

- 2 - 

REGULATORY ASSUMPTIONS

The gasoline sulfur specifications in Sensitivity Case 4 are the same as the Study Case 

and Sensitivity Cases 2 and 3, 10 parts per million (ppm) company annual average, with an 

individual batch limit of 20 ppm. All other gasoline properties are the same as in the Base Case. 

Gasoline specifications for the original cases and Sensitivity Case 4 are summarized below in 

Figure 1. 

FIGURE 1

GASOLINE SPECIFICATIONS

Property Base

Case

Study

Case

Sensitivity Cases

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4

Sulfur, maximum ppm

Company

annual

average

30 10 5 10

Individual

batch 80 20 10 20

Maximum

RVP,

pounds

per square

inch

absolute

(psia)

Summer

Base Varies

regionally

7.0 7.0 to 7.8** Varies

regionally 1 psia

Waiver No Varies

Winter

Base

1 psia Varies regionally

Waiver

Benzene,

maximum

volume

percent

(Vol.%)

Company annual

average

0.62

Refinery annual

average

1.3

Octane, minimum

(R+M)/2

Regular Varies regionally Premium

ASTM Drivability

Index (DI),

maximum***

Summer

Varies regionally Winter

Ethanol, fixed Vol.% 10
Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of 

Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline 

- 3 - 

OTHER ASSUMPTIONS AND ANALYTICAL BASIS

Technology, capital investment, and other input costs in Sensitivity Case 4 are consistent 

with the Original Report. The gasoline consumption forecast, analytical basis and methodology 

for forecasting individual refinery compliance responses are the same as in the Original Report.
Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of 

Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline 

- 4 - 

STUDY RESULTS

COMPLIANCE RESPONSE

Applying the methodology and criteria described in the Original Report, an estimate of 

the most likely compliance response decisions was made for each refinery in Sensitivity Case 4. 

Twenty-three refineries would need to upgrade fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) feed hydrotreaters, 

one refinery would require installation of a new FCC feed hydrotreater, thirteen refineries would 

need to install new FCC gasoline hydrotreaters, and thirty-three refineries would need to expand 

or upgrade their existing FCC gasoline hydrotreaters.1

 

In the Original Report Study Case and Sensitivity Cases 1 – 3, the removal of light 

hydrocarbons from the gasoline pool necessitated a reduction in naphtha and FCC gasoline 

endpoints to meet the summer Drivability Index (DI) specification. Sensitivity Case 4 FCC 

gasoline endpoints are the same as the Base Case. As a result, Sensitivity Case 4 required more 

hydrotreating than the Study Case and Sensitivity Cases 2 and 3. 

In the Original Report, as well as the new Sensitivity Case 4, compliance investment 

requirements were calculated for all refineries, and as discussed in Section 8.8 of the Original 

Report, these investment requirements were compared to each refinery’s “value as an ongoing 

concern.”2

 If the investment requirement exceeded this value, it was assumed that the refiner 

would not make the compliance investment. This led to decisions to close four to seven 

refineries in the various Original Report cases. By themselves, none of the compliance 

investment requirements for Sensitivity Case 4 exceeds the “value as an ongoing concern” 

threshold, and no refinery shutdowns are projected. It must be noted that if individual refineries 

face investment requirements due to other regulatory changes, “consent decrees,” or other 

constraints not included in the Base Case, the combination of those costs with the Sensitivity 

Case 4 requirements might change this conclusion. Also, reductions in petroleum product 

consumption or other market conditions could change this conclusion. 

 

1

 Individual refineries may appear in multiple categories. 2

 Assumed to be five times the future annual net cash flow. 
Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of 

Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline 

- 5 - 

While total capital investment requirements in Sensitivity Case 4 are similar to 

Sensitivity Cases 2 and 3, the breakdown of the investments is different. The expected 

compliance investments are shown below in Figure 2. 

FIGURE 2

EXPECTED REFINERY COMPLIANCE INVESTMENTS

Study Case Sensitivity

Case 1

Sensitivity

Case 2

Sensitivity

Case 3

Sensitivity

Case 4

Refinery Shutdowns 4 7 4 4 0

Number of New Units     

   Naphtha Depentanizer 45 43 27 16 0

   FCC Depentanizer 40 38 9 9 0

   Hydrocracker Depentanizer 23 22 2 2 0

   FCC Feed Hydrotreater 1 8 1 1 1

   FCC Gasoline Hydrotreater 9 20 9 9 13

Number of Revamps and

Expansions      

   FCC Feed Hydrotreater 30 28 27 27 23

   FCC Gasoline Hydrotreater 32 38 30 30 33

     

Desulfurization, $MM 9,456 15,112 8,873 8,873 9,766

Logistics/Tankage, $MM 1,187 1,353 740 445 0

Other, $MM 845 878 344 259 0

   

Total Investment Cost, $MM 11,488 17,343 9,957 9,577 9,766

Note:    Individual refineries may appear in multiple categories for each case.  Logistics/Tankage, Desulfurization,

and Other all include contingency.  The Original Report Logistics/Tankage data did not include

contingency. 
Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of 

Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline 

- 6 - 

GASOLINE SUPPLY BALANCE AND REFINERY OPERATIONS

In the Original Report Base Case, United States (U.S.) refineries were projected to 

produce 7,296 MB/CD of hydrocarbon gasoline3

 annually. Hydrocarbon gasoline from other 

domestic sources was estimated at 200 MB/CD. The combination of domestic production was 

less than the projected consumption, resulting in a need for annual imports of 885 MB/CD. 

During the summer season, gasoline imports of 923 MB/CD were required. 

The reductions in summer RVP in the Original Report Study and Sensitivity Cases, 

combined with projected refinery closures, resulted in significant reductions in domestic gasoline 

production. The summer season reductions ranged from 622 to 1,377 MB/CD. Because RVP 

specifications were held constant with the Base Case and because no shutdowns are projected, 

total gasoline production in Sensitivity Case 4 is the same as the Base Case. Details of the 

gasoline quality and supply balance for Sensitivity Case 4 summer season are reported in Tables 

1 through 4. 

REFINERY HYDROGEN REQUIREMENTS

In the Original Report cases, the previously-discussed reductions in naphtha end points to 

meet the DI specification resulted in lower reformer utilization and a reduction in refinery 

hydrogen production relative to the Base Case. Reformer hydrogen production in Sensitivity 

Case 4 is the same as the Base Case. In the Original Report cases, the combination of reduced 

reformer hydrogen production and increased desulfurization resulted in an annualized increase in 

net hydrogen purchases of 164 to 293 million standard cubic feet per calendar day (MMscf/CD) 

at refineries that continued to operate in the respective cases. The annualized increase in net 

hydrogen purchases for Sensitivity Case 4, 129 MMscf/CD, is lower due to the additional 

reformer hydrogen production. These numbers assume that existing refinery hydrogen plants 

produce at capacity where needed. It was assumed that the incremental hydrogen purchases 

would be available from third-party steam methane reformers.

 

3

 Changes in gasoline production and imports throughout the report are hydrocarbon only. It was assumed that 

domestic ethanol production and consumption remain constant at Base Case levels. 
Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of 

Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline 

- 7 - 

FIGURE 3

HYDROGEN PURCHASES, MMSCF/CD

Total U.S. PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5

Base Case* 1,629.7 20.1 36.5 1,326.7 0.8 245.5

Study Case Purchases 1,793.6 28.4 64.8 1,424.5 1.5 274.5

    Delta vs. Base Case** 163.9 8.2 28.3 97.7 0.6 29.0

    Delta, % 10% 41% 77% 7% 72% 12%

Base Case* 1,618.4 20.1 36.5 1,315.4 0.8 245.5

Sensitivity Case 1 1,911.2 46.3 93.5 1,469.3 1.5 300.5

    Delta vs. Base Case** 292.8 26.2 57.0 153.9 0.6 55.0

    Delta, % 18% 130% 156% 12% 74% 22%

Base Case* 1,629.7 20.1 36.5 1,326.7 0.8 245.5

Sensitivity Case 2 1,814.4 28.3 64.5 1,416.6 0.8 304.1

    Delta vs. Base Case** 184.7 8.2 28.0 89.9 0.0 58.6

    Delta, % 11% 41% 77% 7% 0% 24%

Base Case* 1,629.7 20.1 36.5 1,326.7 0.8 245.5

Sensitivity Case 3 1,814.6 28.3 64.5 1,416.5 0.8 304.4

    Delta vs. Base Case** 184.9 8.2 28.0 89.8 0.0 58.9

    Delta, % 11% 41% 77% 7% 0% 24%

Base Case* 1,662.6 20.1 69.3 1,326.7 0.8 245.5

Sensitivity Case 4 1,791.3 20.9 91.6 1,382.1 0.8 295.8

    Delta vs. Base Case** 128.7 0.8 22.3 55.4 0.0 50.3

    Delta, % 8% 4% 32% 4% 0% 20%

                

* The hydrogen purchases are based on the refineries operating in the respective Study or Sensitivity

Case relative to Base Case purchases.  

** Difference in reported delta values are due to rounding.

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

The additional hydrotreating required in Sensitivity Case 4 would result in an increase in 

carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus the Base Case. The increase in CO2 emissions in 

Sensitivity Case 4 versus the Study and Sensitivity Cases in the Original Report is attributed to 

the number of refineries running and severity of hydrotreating operations. 
Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of 

Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline 

- 8 - 

FIGURE 4

INCREMENTAL CO2 EMISSIONS, TONNES/CD

CO2 Emissions

TOTAL

U.S. PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5

Base Case* 717,811 48,248 137,968 375,030 24,241 132,323

Study Case 727,748 48,667 140,932 380,321 24,892 132,935

Delta    9,936         419    2,964 5,292      650    612

Base Case* 708,840   48,248 135,811 368,215 24,241 132,323

Sensitivity Case 1 724,976 49,245 139,793 376,141 25,276 134,521

Delta 16,136     997 3,982 7,926 1,035 2,197

Base Case* 717,811 48,248 137,968 375,030 24,241 132,323

Sensitivity Case 2 725,411 48,502 139,524 379,316 24,583 133,486

Delta 7,599     253 1,555 4,286 342 1,163

Base Case* 717,811 48,248 137,968 375,030 24,241 132,323

Sensitivity Case 3 724,951 48,502 139,429 379,135 24,506 133,379

Delta 7,140     253 1,461 4,105 264 1,056

Base Case* 729,459 48,248 146,147 375,030 24,241 135,793

Sensitivity Case 4 733,404 48,339 146,769 377,371 24,353 136,572

Delta 3,944     90 622 2,342 112 778

   

* The CO2 values are based on the refineries operating in the respective Study or Sensitivity Case

relative to Base Case emissions for those refineries.

Assuming foreign refineries experience a proportional increase, the combined increase in 

CO2 emissions would be 1.7 million tonnes per year for Sensitivity Case 4 versus 2.9 to 7.4 

million tonnes per year from the cases in the Original Report.

TOTAL COMPLIANCE COSTS

In the cases from the Original Report, the downgrading of light hydrocarbons was the 

most significant compliance cost. In Sensitivity Case 4, this cost is eliminated, resulting in 

significantly lower annual compliance costs. Total annual compliance costs are shown below in 

Figure 5. 
Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of 

Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline 

- 9 - 

FIGURE 5

TOTAL ANNUAL COMPLIANCE COST

2009 $MM PER YEAR

Study Case Sensitivity

Case 1

Sensitivity

Case 2

Sensitivity

Case 3

Sensitivity

Case 4

Purchased Hydrogen 305 546 354 354 246

Other Variable

Operating Expenses 498 749 342 303 455

Fixed Operating

Expenses 269 404 37 35 23

Capital Recovery 1,953 2,949 1,693 1,628 1,666

Light Hydrocarbon

Downgrading 7,368 8,572 4,363 2,528 0

Total Cost 10,393 13,220 6,789 4,848 2,390

In Figures 6 through 10, the annualized and summer individual refinery compliance costs 

are plotted in cents per gallon (¢/Gal.) of gasoline for the Study and Sensitivity Cases vs. 

cumulative barrels of gasoline supplied by U.S. refiners. 

FIGURE 6
Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of 

Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline 

- 10 - 

FIGURE 7

FIGURE 8
Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of 

Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline 

- 11 - 

FIGURE 9

FIGURE 10
Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of 

Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline 

- 12 - 

CONCLUSIONS

Compliance costs in Sensitivity Case 4 are significant, but the elimination of the RVP 

changes included in the Original Report removes the substantial costs associated with removing 

light hydrocarbons from the gasoline pool. The results indicate no change in gasoline supply 

relative to the Base Case. 

Total capital investment costs are projected at just under $10 billion, in the same range as 

three of the previous cases. Ongoing annual compliance costs, including capital recovery, are 

estimated at $2.4 billion in Sensitivity Case 4. Allocating these annualized costs to gasoline 

produced results in a marginal cost of 6¢ to 9¢/Gal. in most markets. 
Ethanol 3 Hydrocarbon TOTAL U.S. PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 

Domestic Refinery Gasoline Production4

E85 48.4 17.0 65.4 0.4 64.7 0.1 

Lower Sulfur Gasoline - C 547.1 4,924 5,471 318 1,570 2,842 

Lower Sulfur Gasoline - R 180.6 1,626 1,806 358 345 1,068 

CARB 96.4 868 964 - - - 

TOTAL 873 7,435 8,307 677 1,980 3,910 

Gasoline Consumption5

E85 48.4 17.0 65.4 0.4 64.7 0.1 

Lower Sulfur Gasoline - C 627.0 5,643 6,270 2,132 2,080 1,172 

Lower Sulfur Gasoline - R 210.1 1,891 2,101 1,307 358 345 

CARB 111.8 1,006 1,118 - - - 

TOTAL 997 8,558 9,555 3,440 2,503 1,517 

E85 - - - - - 

Lower Sulfur Gasoline - C (719) (799) (1,814) (510) 1,670 

Lower Sulfur Gasoline - R (266) (295) (949) (13) 723 

CARB (138) (154) - - - 

TOTAL (1,123) (1,248) (2,763) (523) 2,393 

NOTES:

(1)(3)

TABLE 1

Sensitivity Case 4 2016 Summer Supply Balance1,2

(Thousands of Barrels Per Day - Including Ethanol)

Domestic Refinery Over/(Under) Supply6

"Summer" is defined as April through September. Annual average consumption from the EIA 2010 Annual Energy Outlook Early Release was seasonally adjusted using as reported by the EIA in Petroleum Marketing Monthly.Totals represent finished gasoline produced from refinery CBOB, RBOB, and CARBOB as determined by PRISM simulations and include 10 Vol.% ethanol added to do

Gasoline blender production, based on blendstock sources other than from domestic refiners, is not included. 

(2) As described in the main body of the report "Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline".

(5) Total U.S. gasoline consumption is based on the full year 2016 forecast contained in the EIA 2010 Annual Energy Outlook Early Release. PADD level allocations are ba

miles traveled as reported by the U.S. Department of Transportation. Grade allocations are based on 2005/2006 average annual share of sales as reported in the Petrol

(6) Net supply requirements are from finished gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, excluding oxygenates, either from foreign imports or non-refinery supply. 

The difference between the ethanol in Domestic Refinery Gasoline Production and Gasoline Consumption is the ethanol blended into the imported gasoline blendstocks

(4)
TOTAL U.S. PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5

Domestic Production by Crude Oil Refiners3

Total Pool

RVP, psi 7.4 7.0 8.1 7.3 8.5 6.8

Olefins, Vol.% 9.7% 12.0% 10.1% 10.6% 9.9% 5.8%

Aromatics, Vol.% 29.1% 28.6% 30.2% 29.4% 27.6% 27.3%

Benzene, Vol.% 0.56% 0.65% 0.61% 0.51% 0.71% 0.54%

Sulfur, wppm 10.2 11.8 11.0 11.3 11.5 4.8

Lower Sulfur Gasoline - C

RVP, psi 8.4 8.9 8.7 8.0 8.5 8.9

Olefins, Vol.% 11.7% 18.3% 10.2% 12.2% 9.9% 10.3%

Aromatics, Vol.% 32.2% 37.6% 32.1% 32.4% 27.6% 30.7%

Benzene, Vol.% 0.60% 0.67% 0.67% 0.53% 0.71% 0.69%

Sulfur, wppm 11.0 10.4 10.7 11.5 11.5 8.4

Lower Sulfur Gasoline - R

RVP, psi 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 - 5.2

Olefins, Vol.% 6.8% 6.3% 9.8% 6.2% - 4.5%

Aromatics, Vol.% 21.1% 20.5% 21.7% 21.4% - 10.4%

Benzene, Vol.% 0.48% 0.63% 0.36% 0.46% - 0.66%

Sulfur, wppm 11.4 13.2 12.3 10.7 - 7.5

CARBOB

RVP, psi 5.9 - - - - 5.9

Olefins, Vol.% 4.0% - - - - 4.0%

Aromatics, Vol.% 26.5% - - - - 26.5%

Benzene, Vol.% 0.48% - - - - 0.48%

Sulfur, wppm 3.3 - - - - 3.3

NOTES:

(1)

(3) PRISM simulation results.

"Summer" is defined as April through September. 

TABLE 2

Sensitivity Case 4 2016 SummerRegional Finished Gasoline Qualities1,2

At Refinery Gate (Before Ethanol is Added)

(2) As described in the main body of the report "Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline".
TOTAL U.S. PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5

Domestic Production by Crude Oil Refiners3

Total Pool

RVP, psi 8.6 8.2 9.2 8.5 9.5 8.0

Olefins, Vol.% 8.8% 10.8% 9.1% 9.5% 8.9% 5.2%

Aromatics, Vol.% 26.2% 25.7% 27.2% 26.5% 24.8% 24.6%

Benzene, Vol.% 0.51% 0.59% 0.56% 0.46% 0.65% 0.49%

Sulfur, wppm 10.2 11.6 10.9 11.2 11.3 5.4

Lower Sulfur Gasoline - C

RVP, psi 9.4 9.9 9.7 9.1 9.5 9.9

Olefins, Vol.% 10.5% 16.5% 9.2% 11.0% 8.9% 9.3%

Aromatics, Vol.% 29.0% 33.8% 28.9% 29.2% 24.8% 27.6%

Benzene, Vol.% 0.55% 0.61% 0.61% 0.48% 0.65% 0.62%

Sulfur, wppm 10.9 10.4 10.6 11.4 11.3 8.6

Lower Sulfur Gasoline - R

RVP, psi 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 - 6.7

Olefins, Vol.% 6.2% 5.7% 8.8% 5.5% - 4.0%

Aromatics, Vol.% 19.0% 18.4% 19.6% 19.3% - 9.4%

Benzene, Vol.% 0.43% 0.57% 0.33% 0.42% - 0.60%

Sulfur, wppm 11.3 12.8 12.1 10.7 - 7.8

CARBOB

RVP, psi 7.3 - - - - 7.3

Olefins, Vol.% 3.6% - - - - 3.6%

Aromatics, Vol.% 23.9% - - - - 23.9%

Benzene, Vol.% 0.44% - - - - 0.44%

Sulfur, wppm 4.0 - - - - 4.0

NOTES:

(1)

(3) PRISM simulation results.

"Summer" is defined as April through September. 

TABLE 3

Sensitivity Case 4 2016 SummerRegional Finished Gasoline Qualities1,2

(includes Ethanol)

(2) As described in the main body of the report "Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline".
TOTAL U.S. PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 

Domestic Production by Crude Oil Refiners3

E85 Gasoline 65.4 0.4 64.7 0.1 0.0 

Lower Sulfur Gasoline - C 5,471 318 1,570 2,842 344 

Lower Sulfur Gasoline - R 1,806 358 345 1,068 - 

CARB Gasoline 964 - - - - 

Jet Fuel 1,488 79 263 666 41 

Distillates 4,244 331 893 2,345 170 

Pentanes 92 2 0 30 - 

Other4 306 4,126 722 2,184 128 

TOTAL 18,257 1,395 3,858 9,135 682 

NOTES:

(1)(4) Includes LPG, residual fuel oil, aviation gasoline, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, waxes, asphalt, road oil, still gas, special naphthas, petroleu

miscellaneous petroleum products.

(3)

TABLE 4

Sensitivity Case 4 2016 Summer Production1,2

(Thousands of Barrels Per Day - Including Ethanol)

Totals represent finished gasoline produced from refinery CBOB, RBOB, and CARBOB as determined by PRISM simulations and include 10 Vol.% 

added to refinery production. Gasoline blender production, based on blendstock sources other than from domestic refiners, is not included. "Summer" is defined as April through September. Annual average consumption from the EIA 2010 Annual Energy Outlook Early Release was seaadjusted using actual 2005/2006 consumption as reported by the EIA in Petroleum Marketing Monthly.

(2) As described in the main body of the report "Addendum to Potential Supply and Cost Impacts of Lower Sulfur, Lower RVP Gasoline".