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Michael Armstrong

Aviation Program Manager

Southern California Association of Governments March 11, 2008
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Success Based on Group Resolve to Find

Workable and Fair Solutions

Membership isVoluntary

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Southern California
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Regional Air Passenger Demand

(2002 and 2030)

2002 (Existing)

Ontario

8%

Palm Springs

1°1<>

Long Beach

2%

LAX

73°1<>

2030 (Preferred Plan)

Palmdale

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Palm Springs 5%

2% SoCal Logistics

2%

Burbank

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John Wayne

10°1<> Ontario

18%

(

LAX

46%

Burbank

-- 6%

~ John Wayne

6%

Southern California

l\,ssociation of Governments ASSOCl ••.l101rr1 0'

GOYEA"'llilE'H5

March

5%

Long Beach

2%
2030 InternatiDnal Air

Passengers (Preferred Plan)

2002 International

Percentages

2030 International

Percentages

John Wayne

1%

Palmdale

4%

Ontario Palm Springs

0.27%> 0.00%

Palm Springs

0%

Ontario

-- 11%

LAX

99.73%>

LAX

84%
2030 Air Cargo Demand

(Pre'erred Plan)

2002 Air Cargo

Percentages

2030 Air Cargo

Percentages

Los Angeles

74%

Long Beach

2%

Palmdale

12%)

Ontario

21%

John Wayne

1%

Long Beach

---=---

2%

Palm Springs

1%) Palm Springs

0%

Ontario

26%

San Bernardino

13%)

March

13%

SoCal Logistics

6

%

Burbank

1%

John Wayne

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ASSOCIA.IIO" Of

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Airport Constraints

Airport Constraint

LAX Physical/Policy - 78 MAP

Bob Hope Physical - 9.6-10.7 MAP

~~~

John Wayne Legal - 10.8 MAP

Long Beach Legal - 3-3.8 MAP

Ontario Physical - 30 MAP

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INTRODUCTION

• What is Airport Decentralization?

- Ability to meet demands of the region

- Better utilization of regional airports

• Why must we decentralize?

Limited capacity at urbanized airports

- Continued and growing demand from the

urbanized areas in the region

- LAX settlement agreement

• SCAG's Regional Aviation Plan

provides the solution

- Airport decentralization concept evolved

from 2001 and 2004 RTP

- Shift passenger demand to inland airports

- Growth of outlying airports supported by

reliable, very high-speed ground access

Southern California

Asaoclatlon of Governments ASSOCIAIIOH (,II

o.OYEftNMEHTI
STEPS TO DECENTRALIZATION

1. Address current bottlenecks

- Provides immediate relief and improves

ground access

- By itself, will not decentralize aviation

demand

2. Provide options to redistributing

demand

Flyaway concept, establish the patterns

Redirect and focus on regional airports

- Integrate with roadway improvements in

the near term

3. Ultimately need a long term solution

- Build on the Flyaway concept

- Need for high-speed, dependable and

reliable service

- Need for airports in the region to work

together

ASSQCI,U ION of

GOV£A:H""f.N'fS

Southern California

Association of Governments
High Speed Rail

lalli,

San Bernardino

Riverside

ASSOCI" 1 lOW 01

GOYERNIIIlE,.TS

Southern Catitornia

Association of Governments
2030 Preferred Plan

Economic Benefit

Preferred Plan - $18 Billion and

131,000 jobs over "doing nothing"

Preferred Aviation Plan Economic

Impact

Variation

Do Nothing

Preferred

Aviation Plan

Economic

Impact Jobs

(1998 Dollars)

$ 87 Billion 630,000

$105 Billion 761,000

For every one million passengers, there is an

economic benefit of $620 Million and 4,475 Jobs
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SCAG UNCONSTRAINED DEMAND

LAX+ONTARIO+BURBANK+SANTA ANA+SAN

BERNARDINO+VICTORVILLE+PALMDALE +MARCH

AFB+LONG BEACH+PALM SPRINGS

SCAG REGION:

2005 - 88.3 MAP

2035 - 192.4 MAP (fuel costs)

29°1'0 INTERNATIONAL

2004RTP - 190 MAP in 2030

ANNUAL GROWTH RATE: 3.9°k

TOTAL SCAG + SAN DIEGO: 215.39 MAP (SAN: 22.99 MAP)

~.~

'" Southern California

~~~~'i.':~~:"i Association of Governments
FAA TERMINAL AREA FORECAST

WESTERN-PACIFIC REGION: California, Nevada,

Arizona

MAJOR AIRPORTS ONLY

FAA ANNUAL GROWH RA TE 4.44%

FAA (CA, NV, AZ)

2005 - 150.2 MAP

2025 - 285.8 MAP

2025 LAX -112.9 MAP

BCAG

2005 - 88.3 MAP

2035 - 192.4 MAP

~~

'" Southern California

~~~~'i;;~"i:To~ Association of Governrnents
2035 CONSTRAINED SCENARIO PARAMETERS

• NO MAGLEV

• LAX: Existing runway capacity - 78 MAP

• BUR: Existing terminal/gate capacity - 9.4 MAP

• LGB: Flight restriction of 41 flights/day

SNA: Settlement Agreement - 10.8 MAP

• ONT: Existing runway capacity - 28.8 MAP

• SAN: Existing runway capacity - 22.9 MAP

• SBD & PMD: Charter, corp. & commuter/short haul

• MAR & VCV: Cargo, charter and corporate

• IPL & CRQ: Corporate, charter and commuter

OXR: Physical facility & fleet mix constrained

• Planned ground access improvements

• No Market incentives

• Doubling of aircraft fuel costs

~~ Southern California

~~f.i:~"i:,o~Assoeiatlcn of Governments
PRELIMINARY

2035 CONSTRAINED SCENARIO

ffERATION:A/82720C RADAM VERSION 9.12 (REGIONAL AIRPORT DEMAND AllOCATION MODEL)

12035 SCE CONI TOTAL PASSENGERS IN MILLION ANNUAL PASSENGERS (MAP) MAR

(M\R hland Port)

0.551122

SAN BUR LAX ONT OXR SNA LGB PSP PMO SBO CRQ IPL VCV

Lindgergh Field (Oxnard) (John wayne) (PalmSprings) (San Ber. hi) (Palormr) (h"periaQ(So CA Logistics)

22.897726 9.401123 78.007283 31.601221 0.720010 10.800277 3.192923 4.102234 2.572827 2.885383 1.307248 0.874722 0.674940

No Regional Maglev; Planned Ground Access

San Diego Runway Capacity Constrained

LAX Runway Capacity Constrained

OXR, CRQ commuterssnor: haul

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

o

22.90

Southern California

AS$OC •••.1IQW of Association of Governments GO\flEfI;NIII£,.T&

SCAG REGION PX MARKET

144.8329

SCAG + SAN DIEGO PX MKTS

169.0379

78.01

31.60

10.80

0.72

=

1.31 0.87 0.67

=
ALL PREFERRED SCENARIO PARAMETERS

SCENARIO 1. - NO MAGLEV

SCENARIO 2. - REGIONAL MAGLEV TO MARCH (NO PSP STATION)

SCENARIO 3. - REGIONAL MAGLEV TO PSP (NO MAR STATION)

-LGB: Larger Aircraft, higher load factors - 41 flights/day = 4.2 MAP capacity

-SNA: New Settlement Agreement Constraint - 10.8 MAP

-ONT: Runway capacity - 31.6 MAP

-SAN: Capacity of 22.9 MAP

-MAR: Joint use agreement - 2.5 MAP

-SBD: System capacity - 8.7-9.4 MAP

-PMD and VCV: Unconstrained

-OXR and CRQ: constrained by ops

-BUR: capacity - 9.4 MAP

-IPL: unconstrained

-LAX: 78 MAP

Airport ground access improvements:

Unconstrained list recent submittals from local commissions

~~

'" Southern California

~~~:~'i:,o;Association of Governments
Market Incentives

-PMD: ground access reliability - same as other airports;

Additional access routes

-Future air trip propensities in the Antelope Valley (PMD)

increased by avg. 15°k closer to San Fernando Valley.

-For outlying airports 100% of residents & 80% of nonresidents aware of alternative airports choices. Requires a

marketing campaign, booking system upgrades

-Low-cost parking at PMD, SBD, MAR, VCV, CRQ, IPL, OXR

-Free shuttle service from major activity centers to outlying

airports

~.~

'" Southern California

~~~~~~"i::~Association of Governments
2035 RTP PREFERRED SCENARIO 1. NO MAGLEV

ITERATlON:P/00277122 RADAM VERSION 9.12 (REGIONAL AIRPORT DEMAND ALLOCATION MODEL)

12035 SCE P 1

I

TOTAL PASSENGERS IN MILLION ANNUAL PASSENGERS (MAP) MAR

(MAR Inland Port)

2.503372

SAN BUR LAX ONT OXR SNA LGB PSP PMD SBD CRQ IPL VCV

Lindgergh Field (Oxnard) (John Wayne) (Palm Springs) (San Ber. Inl) (Palomar) (Imperial) (So CA Logistics)

22.900272 9.401265 78.006839 31.602013 1.406070 10.800245 4.200328 4.119827 6.271277 3.278352 1.501274 3.502939 2.430293

No Regional Maglev; Planned Ground Access

San Diego Runway Capacity Constrained

LAX Runway Capacity Constrained

Fuel Cost Doubling

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25 22.90

2015 D 9.40

10

~ ~.... ~__D~--,-,-_~-,_~-----, _

78.01

SCAG REGION PX MARKI

155.0194

SCAG + SAN DIEGO PX M

179.4210

31.60

-

10.80

LJ 4.20 4.12 6.27c=J __r=J~

3.50

r==J

3.28 r==J 2.43

r===J 1.41 1.50

= =

Southern Calttornla

ASSOCI.llO~

GOV"ttNIlIIE9IlTS

(lJ Association of Governments
2035 PREFERRED SCENARIO 2. MAGLEV - MAR

PRELIMINARY

ITERATION: P/032833B RADAM VERSION 9.12 (REGIONAL AIRPORT DEMAND AllOCATION MODEL)

I 2035 SCE P MAR I

TOTAL PASSENGERS IN MILLION ANNUAL PASSENGERS (MAP) MAR

MAGLEV TO MAR (MARInla1dPat)

2.502340

SAN BUR LAX ONT OXR SNA LGB PSP PMO SBO CRQ IPL VCV

Lindgergh Field (Oxnard) (John Wayne) (Palm Springs) (San Ber. Int) (Palomar) (Imperial) (So CA Logistics)

22.900148 9.401120 78.006439 31.601028 2.204785 10.800187 4.200273 4.102273 12.887205 9.415432 2.488373 3.533112 4.002864

Regional Maglev to MAR; No Maglev to PSP; Planned Ground Access

San Diego Runway Capacity Constrained

LAX Runway Capacity Constrained

Fuel Cost Doubling

March Inland Port caped at 2.5 MAP

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

o

SCAG REGION PX MARKI

17Q4S47

SCAG+SAN DIEGO PX MI'

195.5432

78.01

31.60

22.90

9.40

I I

2.20

10.80

CJ 4.20

.r=J 2.49

r===J

3.53 r==J 4.00

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ASSO(;I.&,IIOWof

GOYERNlill£tlITS

Southern California

Association of Governments
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