To: Anthony Balducci, DOE

From : Diane Fisher and Isaac Turiel, LBNL

Subject: Derivation of distributions of Green Lights ballasts vs. electricity price, and

comparison to commercial electricity price distribution

Date: April 1, 1998

This memo is an updated version of the memo we sent you in September 1997, explaining how

the distributions of Green Lights ballasts installed vs. electricity price and commercial electricity

sales volume vs. electricity price, shown in the attached figures, were derived. Since sending our

previous memo and figures, we received a new extract of the EPA Green Lights database which

kept data separate for different project years. We were therefore able to adjust all electricity

prices to 1995 dollars.

Introduction

In the course of public workshops on LBNL's analysis of energy efficiency levels for fluorescent

ballasts, a question arose about the electricity prices LBNL used in the analysis, including the

distribution of electricity prices used in the sensitivity analysis. We used commercial electricity

prices to derive the distribution, as described below. Some commentors have suggested that a

disproportionate number of consumers whose electricity rates are high are already purchasing

more energy-efficient ballasts, which, if true, would mean that LBNL's analysis overestimates the

fraction of consumers who would benefit from energy-efficiency levels for ballasts.

To examine this possibility further, we looked at the data from one voluntary lighting efficiency

program, EPA's Green Lights program. Participants in this program voluntarily agree to upgrade

the efficiency of lighting in existing and new buildings. Green Lights projects are well distributed

geographically, and thus far nearly 14 million energy-efficient ballasts have been installed in Green

Lights buildings nationwide. Most of these ballasts were installed between 1994 and the present,

with approximately 3.5 million ballasts installed in calendar 1996, the most recent year for which

we have complete data. This represents approximately 12% of electronic ballast shipments

reported by the Bureau of Census for that year.

Green Lights Data

We obtained an extract of EPA's database on its Green Lights program in late August of 1997.

This database is based on reports submitted by Green Lights program participants on completed

upgrades. The data obtained were for the beginning of the program in 1990 through July 1997.

The data included information on all of the fixtures replaced in the retrofit project, and the new

fixtures which were installed. Not all projects involved installation of new fixtures; some involved

relamping, delamping or addition of controls only. For our analysis, we included data for new

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 20E

) ~£ 

MEMO -# 

To: Anthony Balducci, DOE 

From: Diane Fisher and Isaac Turiel, LBNL 

Subject: Derivation of distributions of Green Lights ballasts vs. electricity price, and 

comparison to commercial electricity price distribution 

Date: April 1, 1998 

This memo is an updated version of the memo we sent you in September 1997, explaining how 

the distributions of Green Lights ballasts installed vs. electricity price and commercial electricity 

sales volume vs. electricity price, shown in the attached figures, were derived. Since sending our 

previous memo and figures, we received a new extract of the EPA Green Lights database which 

kept data separate for different project years. We were therefore able to adjust all electricity 

prices to 1995 dollars. 

Introduction 

In the course of public workshops on LBNL' s analysis of energy efficiency levels for fluorescent 

ballasts, a question arose about the electricity prices LBNL used in the analysis, including the 

distribution of electricity prices used in the sensitivity analysis. We used commercial electricity 

prices to derive the distribution, as described below. Some commentors have suggested that a 

disproportionate number of consumers whose electricity rates are high are already purchasing 

more energy-efficient ballasts, which, if true, would mean that LBNL's analysis overestimates the 

fraction of consumers who would benefit from energy-efficiency levels for ballasts. 

To examine this possibility further, we looked at the data from one voluntary lighting efficiency 

program, EPA's Green Lights program. Participants in this program voluntarily agree to upgrade 

the efficiency of lighting in existing and new buildings. Green Lights projects are well distributed 

geographically, and thus far nearly 14 million energy-efficient ballasts have been installed in Green. 

Lights buildings nationwide. Most of these ballasts were installed between 1994 and the present, 

with approximately 3.5 million ballasts installed in calendar 1996, the most recent year for which 

we have complete data. This represents approximately 12% of electronic ballast shipments 

reported by the Bureau of Census for that year. 

Green Lights Data 

We obtained an extract of EPA's database on its Green Lights program in late August of 1997. 

This database is based on reports submitted by Green Lights program participants on completed 

upgrades. The data obtained were for the beginning of the program in 1990 through July 1997. 

The data included information on all of the fixtures replaced in the retrofit project, and the new 

fixtures which were installed. Not all projects involved installation of new fixtures; some involved 

relamping, delamping or addition of controls only. For our analysis, we included data for new 

) ~£ 

MEMO -# 

To: Anthony Balducci, DOE 

From: Diane Fisher and Isaac Turiel, LBNL 

Subject: Derivation of distributions of Green Lights ballasts vs. electricity price, and 

comparison to commercial electricity price distribution 

Date: April 1, 1998 

This memo is an updated version of the memo we sent you in September 1997, explaining how 

the distributions of Green Lights ballasts installed vs. electricity price and commercial electricity 

sales volume vs. electricity price, shown in the attached figures, were derived. Since sending our 

previous memo and figures, we received a new extract of the EPA Green Lights database which 

kept data separate for different project years. We were therefore able to adjust all electricity 

prices to 1995 dollars. 

Introduction 

In the course of public workshops on LBNL' s analysis of energy efficiency levels for fluorescent 

ballasts, a question arose about the electricity prices LBNL used in the analysis, including the 

distribution of electricity prices used in the sensitivity analysis. We used commercial electricity 

prices to derive the distribution, as described below. Some commentors have suggested that a 

disproportionate number of consumers whose electricity rates are high are already purchasing 

more energy-efficient ballasts, which, if true, would mean that LBNL's analysis overestimates the 

fraction of consumers who would benefit from energy-efficiency levels for ballasts. 

To examine this possibility further, we looked at the data from one voluntary lighting efficiency 

program, EPA's Green Lights program. Participants in this program voluntarily agree to upgrade 

the efficiency of lighting in existing and new buildings. Green Lights projects are well distributed 

geographically, and thus far nearly 14 million energy-efficient ballasts have been installed in Green. 

Lights buildings nationwide. Most of these ballasts were installed between 1994 and the present, 

with approximately 3.5 million ballasts installed in calendar 1996, the most recent year for which 

we have complete data. This represents approximately 12% of electronic ballast shipments 

reported by the Bureau of Census for that year. 

Green Lights Data 

We obtained an extract of EPA's database on its Green Lights program in late August of 1997. 

This database is based on reports submitted by Green Lights program participants on completed 

upgrades. The data obtained were for the beginning of the program in 1990 through July 1997. 

The data included information on all of the fixtures replaced in the retrofit project, and the new 

fixtures which were installed. Not all projects involved installation of new fixtures; some involved 

relamping, delamping or addition of controls only. For our analysis, we included data for new 
Page 2

April 1, 1998

electronic ballasts installed during the retrofit only.

Because the Green Lights data did not report numbers of ballasts directly, we calculated it by

dividing the reported value for lamps per fixture by the reported value for lamps per ballast to get

ballasts per fixture, then multiplied by the number of fixtures to get number of ballasts, for each

record in the database. In some cases, lamps per ballast were not reported . In these cases we

assumed that the number of ballasts would equal the number of fixtures. We only included in the

analysis electronic ballasts for operating Oft, 8ft, or 8ftHO ballasts. Since the Green Lights data

does not directly report lamp lengths, we lamps and the ballasts operating them to these

categories based on the lamp type (e.g. T8, T12 slimline, etc.) and the reported lamp watts.

Since Green Lights projects do not directly report electricity price, this value was calculated by

dividing the reported dollar value of energy savings by the reported electricity savings in kWh.

Projects with calculated electricity prices of greater than $0.25/kWh, or less than $0.01/kWh,

which represented about 2% of all ballasts, were excluded from the extract (we did this because

there were some low and high values which were clearly erroneous, with 8 projects having

calculated electricity prices of greater than $10/kWh.) For project years other than 1995, we then

adjusted the electricity price to 1995 dollars by multiplying the price by the ratio of the Consumer

Price Index (CPI) in 1995 over the CPI in the project year.

The calculated electricity price was then rounded to the nearest cent and the number of ballasts at

each electricity price was summed across the database. We then calculated the fraction of the

total number of ballasts at each electricity price and plotted this fraction vs. electricity price, as

shown in Figure 1.

Commercial Electricity Data

We obtained data on commercial electricity revenues and sales volumes from two EIA

publications(1)(2) (we used 1995 data on investor-owned utilities, or IOUs, and 1994 data on

publicly owned utilities, or POUs, because the 1995 POU data was not yet available when we did

the calculation. IOUs accounted for 88% of sales in 1994 and presumably accounted for a similar

fraction in 1995). For each utility which had commercial electricity sales, we divided the revenue

for commercial sales by the amount of commercial electricity sold to derive the average

commercial rate ($/kWh) for that utility. We rounded these rates to the nearest cent, then

summed the kWh sold for all utilities at each rate. We then calculated the fraction of total sales at

each electricity rate and plotted this, as shown in Figure 1.

Discussion of Results

The distribution of electricity rates for Green Lights ballasts is somewhat broader than the

distribution for commercial sales, presumably because the Green Lights data was averaged at the

facility level while the commercial sales data was averaged at the utility level. The commercial

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 20E

Page 2 

April 1, 1998 

electronic ballasts installed during the retrofit only. 

Because the Green Lights data did not report numbers of ballasts directly, we calculated it by 

dividing the reported value for lamps per fixture by the reported value for lamps per ballast to get 

ballasts per fixture, then multiplied by the number of fixtures to get number of ballasts, for each 

record in the database. In some cases, lamps per ballast were not reported. In these cases we 

assumed that the number of ballasts would equal the number offixtures. We only included in the 

analysis electronic ballasts for operating 4ft, 8ft, or 8ftHO ballasts. Since the Green Lights data 

does not directly report lamp lengths, we lamps and the ballasts operating them to these 

categories based on the lamp type (e.g. T8, T12 slimiine, etc.) and the reported lamp watts. 

Since Green Lights projects do not directly report electricity price, this value was calculated by 

dividing the reported dollar value of energy savings by the reported electricity savings in kWh. 

Projects with calculated electricity prices of greater than $O.25/kWh, or less than $O.OllkWh, 

which represented about 2% of all ballasts, were excluded from the extract (we did this because 

there were some low and high values which were clearly erroneous, with 8 projects having 

calculated electricity prices of greater than $lO/kWh.) For project years other than 1995, we then 

adjusted the electricity price to 1995 dollars by multiplying the price by the ratio of the Consumer 

Price Index (CPI) in 1995 over the CPI in the project year. 

The calculated electricity price was then rounded to the nearest cent and the number of ballasts at 

each electricity price was summed across the database. We then calculated the fraction of the 

total number of ballasts at each electricity price and plotted this fraction vs. electricity price, as 

shown in Figure 1. 

Commercial Electricity Data 

We obtained data on commercial electricity revenues and sales volumes from two EIA 

publications(1)(2) (we used 1995 data on investor-owned utilities, or IODs, and 1994 data on 

publicly owned utilities, or PODs, because the 1995 POD data was not yet available when we did 

the calculation. IODs accounted for 88% of sales in 1994 and presumably accounted for a similar 

fraction in 1995). For each utility which had commercial electricity sales, we divided the revenue 

for commercial sales by the amount of commercial electricity sold to derive the average 

commercial rate ($/kWh) for that utility. We rounded these rates to the nearest cent, then 

summed the kWh sold for all utilities at each rate. We then calculated the fraction of total sales at 

each electricity rate and plotted this, as shown in Figure 1. 

Discussion of Results 

The distribution of electricity rates for Green Lights ballasts is somewhat broader than the 

distribution for commercial sales, presumably because the Green Lights data was averaged at the 

facility level while the commercial sales data was averaged at the utility level. The commercial 

Page 2 

April 1, 1998 

electronic ballasts installed during the retrofit only. 

Because the Green Lights data did not report numbers of ballasts directly, we calculated it by 

dividing the reported value for lamps per fixture by the reported value for lamps per ballast to get 

ballasts per fixture, then multiplied by the number of fixtures to get number of ballasts, for each 

record in the database. In some cases, lamps per ballast were not reported. In these cases we 

assumed that the number of ballasts would equal the number offixtures. We only included in the 

analysis electronic ballasts for operating 4ft, 8ft, or 8ftHO ballasts. Since the Green Lights data 

does not directly report lamp lengths, we lamps and the ballasts operating them to these 

categories based on the lamp type (e.g. T8, T12 slimiine, etc.) and the reported lamp watts. 

Since Green Lights projects do not directly report electricity price, this value was calculated by 

dividing the reported dollar value of energy savings by the reported electricity savings in kWh. 

Projects with calculated electricity prices of greater than $O.25/kWh, or less than $O.OllkWh, 

which represented about 2% of all ballasts, were excluded from the extract (we did this because 

there were some low and high values which were clearly erroneous, with 8 projects having 

calculated electricity prices of greater than $lO/kWh.) For project years other than 1995, we then 

adjusted the electricity price to 1995 dollars by multiplying the price by the ratio of the Consumer 

Price Index (CPI) in 1995 over the CPI in the project year. 

The calculated electricity price was then rounded to the nearest cent and the number of ballasts at 

each electricity price was summed across the database. We then calculated the fraction of the 

total number of ballasts at each electricity price and plotted this fraction vs. electricity price, as 

shown in Figure 1. 

Commercial Electricity Data 

We obtained data on commercial electricity revenues and sales volumes from two EIA 

publications(1)(2) (we used 1995 data on investor-owned utilities, or IODs, and 1994 data on 

publicly owned utilities, or PODs, because the 1995 POD data was not yet available when we did 

the calculation. IODs accounted for 88% of sales in 1994 and presumably accounted for a similar 

fraction in 1995). For each utility which had commercial electricity sales, we divided the revenue 

for commercial sales by the amount of commercial electricity sold to derive the average 

commercial rate ($/kWh) for that utility. We rounded these rates to the nearest cent, then 

summed the kWh sold for all utilities at each rate. We then calculated the fraction of total sales at 

each electricity rate and plotted this, as shown in Figure 1. 

Discussion of Results 

The distribution of electricity rates for Green Lights ballasts is somewhat broader than the 

distribution for commercial sales, presumably because the Green Lights data was averaged at the 

facility level while the commercial sales data was averaged at the utility level. The commercial 
Page 3'

April 1, 1998

sales distribution has a shoulder at higher electricity prices which is absent in the Green Lights

distribution. The average electricity price for Green Lights ballasts is $0.079/kWh, vs. $0.078 for

commercial electricity sales. Based on this comparison, it appears that, at least for the Green

Lights program, there is not a tendency for the purchasers of energy efficient ballasts to be located

predominantly in areas with high electricity rates.

Distribution of Electricity Prices for Green Lights Ballasts

vs. U.S. Commercial Electricity Sales

0.25

0.2+

Cormercial Bectricity

.... • .. Green Lights

0.05 -IM to O c, O r- O

O O O O O '7 '7 7

O O O O 0 O O O 0 O O O 0

Bectricity Price

M In

N N N

Figure 1

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 20E

PageJ 

April 1, 1998 

sales distribution has a shoulder at higher electricity prices which is absent in the Green Lights 

distribution. The average electricity price for Green Lights ballasts is $0.079lkWh, vs. $0.078 for 

commercial electricity sales. Based on this comparison, it appears that, at least for the Green 

Lights program, there is not a tendency for the purchasers of energy efficient ballasts to be located 

predominantly in areas with high electricity rates. 

Distribution of Electricity Prices for Green lights Ballasts 

vs. U.S. Commercial Electricity Sales 

0.25,----------------------, 

0.2 

c 0.15 

o 

~ 

e 

LI- 0.1 

0.05 

0 

(; ('") 

0 

ci ci 

. 

LO 

0 

ci 

" 

. " ' . 

"- 0 

ci 

m ('") LO "- m 0 ... ci 0 ci ci ci ci 

Bectrlclty Price 

Figure 1 

.... ('") 

N N 

ci ci 

LO 

N 

ci 

---Corrmercial 8ectricity 

• • • • . •• Green Lights 

PageJ 

April 1, 1998 

sales distribution has a shoulder at higher electricity prices which is absent in the Green Lights 

distribution. The average electricity price for Green Lights ballasts is $0.079lkWh, vs. $0.078 for 

commercial electricity sales. Based on this comparison, it appears that, at least for the Green 

Lights program, there is not a tendency for the purchasers of energy efficient ballasts to be located 

predominantly in areas with high electricity rates. 

Distribution of Electricity Prices for Green lights Ballasts 

vs. U.S. Commercial Electricity Sales 

0.25,----------------------, 

0.2 

c 0.15 

o 

~ 

e 

LI- 0.1 

0.05 

0 

(; ('") 

0 

ci ci 

. 

LO 

0 

ci 

" 

. " ' . 

"- 0 

ci 

m ('") LO "- m 0 ... ci 0 ci ci ci ci 

Bectrlclty Price 

Figure 1 

.... ('") 

N N 

ci ci 

LO 

N 

ci 

---CorrmerciaI8ectricity 

• • • • . •• Green Lights 
Page 4

April 1, 1998

1. EIA, 1996. Financial Statistics of Major US. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities 1995.

DOE/EIA-0437(95)/1, Energy Information Administration , U.S. Department of Energy,

Washington DC.

2. EIA, 1995 . Financial Statistics of Major U. S. Publicly Owned Electric Utilities 1994.

DOE/EIA-0437(94)/2, Energy Information Administration, U. S. Department of Energy,

Washington DC.

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 20E

Page 4 

April 1, 1998 

1. EIA, 1996. Financial Statistics of Major U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities 1995. 

DOEIEIA-0437(95)/l, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, 

Washington DC. 

2. EIA, 1995. Financial Statistics of Major U.s. Publicly Owned Electric Utilities 1994. 

DOEIEIA-0437(94)/2, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, 

Washington DC. 

Page 4 

April 1, 1998 

1. EIA, 1996. Financial Statistics of Major U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities 1995. 

DOEIEIA-0437(95)/l, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, 

Washington DC. 

2. EIA, 1995. Financial Statistics of Major U.s. Publicly Owned Electric Utilities 1994. 

DOEIEIA-0437(94)/2, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, 

Washington DC.