To: Anthony Balducci, DOE

From : Diane Fisher and Isaac Turiel, LBNL 

### Subject: Derivation of distributions of Green Lights ballasts vs. electricity price, and

comparison to commercial electricity price distribution Date : April 1, 1998 This memo is an updated version of the memo we sent you in September 1997, explaining how the distributions of Green Lights ballasts installed vs. electricity price and commercial electricity sales volume vs. electricity price, shown in the attached figures, were derived. Since sending our previous memo and figures, we received a new extract of the EPA Green Lights database which kept data separate for different project years. We were therefore able to adjust all electricity prices to 1995 dollars. Introduction In the course of public workshops on LBNL's analysis of energy efficiency levels for fluorescent ballasts, a question arose about the electricity prices LBNL used in the analysis, including the distribution of electricity prices used in the sensitivity analysis. We used commercial electricity prices to derive the distribution, as described below. Some commentors have suggested that a disproportionate number of consumers whose electricity rates are high are already purchasing more energy-efficient ballasts, which, if true, would mean that LBNL's analysis overestimates the fraction of consumers who would benefit from energy-efficiency levels for ballasts. To examine this possibility further, we looked at the data from one voluntary lighting efficiency program, EPA's Green Lights program. Participants in this program voluntarily agree to upgrade the efficiency of lighting in existing and new buildings. Green Lights projects are well distributed geographically, and thus far nearly 14 million energy-efficient ballasts have been installed in Green Lights buildings nationwide. Most of these ballasts were installed between 1994 and the present, with approximately 3.5 million ballasts installed in calendar 1996, the most recent year for which we have complete data. This represents approximately 12% of electronic ballast shipments reported by the Bureau of Census for that year. Green Lights Data We obtained an extract of EPA's database on its Green Lights program in late August of 1997. This database is based on reports submitted by Green Lights program participants on completed upgrades. The data obtained were for the beginning of the program in 1990 through July 1997. The data included information on all of the fixtures replaced in the retrofit project, and the new fixtures which were installed. Not all projects involved installation of new fixtures; some involved relamping, delamping or addition of controls only. For our analysis, we included data for new 

# )**~£** MEMO -#

To: Anthony Balducci, DOE 

### From: Diane Fisher and Isaac Turiel, LBNL 

### Subject: Derivation ofdistributions ofGreenLights ballasts vs. electricity price, and comparisonto commercial electricity price distribution Date: April 1, 1998 This memo is an updated version ofthe memo we sent you in September 1997, explaining how the distributions ofGreen Lights ballasts installed vs. electricity price and commercial electricity sales volume vs. electricity price, shown in the attached figures, were derived. Since sending our previous memo and figures, we received a new extract ofthe EPAGreenLights database which kept data separate for different project years. We were therefore able to adjust all electricity prices to 1995 dollars. 

### Introduction Inthe course ofpublic workshops onLBNL's analysis ofenergy efficiency levels for fluorescent ballasts, a question arose about the electricity pricesLBNLused in the analysis, including the distribution ofelectricity prices used in the sensitivity analysis. Weused commercial electricity prices to derive the distribution, as described below. Some commentors have suggested that a disproportionate number ofconsumers whose electricity rates are high are already purchasing more energy-efficient ballasts, which, iftrue, would mean that LBNL's analysis overestimates the fraction ofconsumers who would benefit from energy-efficiency levels for ballasts. To examine this possibility further, we looked at the datafrom one voluntary lighting efficiency program, EPA's GreenLights program. Participants in this programvoluntarily agree to upgrade the efficiency oflighting in existing and newbuildings. GreenLights projects are well distributed geographically, and thus far nearly 14 million energy-efficient ballasts have been installed in Green. Lights buildings nationwide. Most ofthese ballasts were installed between 1994 and the present, with approximately 3.5 million ballasts installed in calendar 1996, the most recent year for which we have complete data. This represents approximately 12% ofelectronic ballast shipments reported by the Bureau ofCensus for that year. Green Lights Data We obtained an extract ofEPA's database onits GreenLights program in late August of 1997. This database is based on reports submitted by GreenLights program participants on completed upgrades. The data obtained were for thebeginning ofthe programin 1990 throughJuly 1997. The data included information on all ofthe fixtures replaced in the retrofit project, and the new fixtures which were installed. Not all projects involved installation ofnew fixtures; some involved relamping, delamping or addition ofcontrols only. For our analysis, we included data for new 

# )**~£** MEMO -#

To: Anthony Balducci, DOE 

### From: Diane Fisher and Isaac Turiel, LBNL 

### Subject: Derivation ofdistributions ofGreenLights ballasts vs. electricity price, and comparisonto commercial electricity price distribution Date: April 1, 1998 This memo is an updated version ofthe memo we sent you in September 1997, explaining how the distributions ofGreen Lights ballasts installed vs. electricity price and commercial electricity sales volume vs. electricity price, shown in the attached figures, were derived. Since sending our previous memo and figures, we received a new extract ofthe EPAGreenLights database which kept data separate for different project years. We were therefore able to adjust all electricity prices to 1995 dollars. 

### Introduction Inthe course ofpublic workshops onLBNL's analysis ofenergy efficiency levels for fluorescent ballasts, a question arose about the electricity pricesLBNLused in the analysis, including the distribution ofelectricity prices used in the sensitivity analysis. Weused commercial electricity prices to derive the distribution, as described below. Some commentors have suggested that a disproportionate number ofconsumers whose electricity rates are high are already purchasing more energy-efficient ballasts, which, iftrue, would mean that LBNL's analysis overestimates the fraction ofconsumers who would benefit from energy-efficiency levels for ballasts. To examine this possibility further, we looked at the datafrom one voluntary lighting efficiency program, EPA's GreenLights program. Participants in this programvoluntarily agree to upgrade the efficiency oflighting in existing and newbuildings. GreenLights projects are well distributed geographically, and thus far nearly 14 million energy-efficient ballasts have been installed in Green. Lights buildings nationwide. Most ofthese ballasts were installed between 1994 and the present, with approximately 3.5 million ballasts installed in calendar 1996, the most recent year for which we have complete data. This represents approximately 12% ofelectronic ballast shipments reported by the Bureau ofCensus for that year. Green Lights Data We obtained an extract ofEPA's database onits GreenLights program in late August of 1997. This database is based on reports submitted by GreenLights program participants on completed upgrades. The data obtained were for thebeginning ofthe programin 1990 throughJuly 1997. The data included information on all ofthe fixtures replaced in the retrofit project, and the new fixtures which were installed. Not all projects involved installation ofnew fixtures; some involved relamping, delamping or addition ofcontrols only. For our analysis, we included data for newPage 2

April 1, 1998 electronic ballasts installed during the retrofit only.
Because the Green Lights data did not report numbers of ballasts directly, we calculated it by dividing the reported value for lamps per fixture by the reported value for lamps per ballast to get ballasts per fixture, then multiplied by the number of fixtures to get number of ballasts, for each record in the database. In some cases, lamps per ballast were not reported . In these cases we assumed that the number of ballasts would equal the number of fixtures. We only included in the analysis electronic ballasts for operating Oft, 8ft, or 8ftHO ballasts. Since the Green Lights data does not directly report lamp lengths, we lamps and the ballasts operating them to these categories based on the lamp type (e.g. T8, T12 slimline, etc.) and the reported lamp watts.
Since Green Lights projects do not directly report electricity price, this value was calculated by dividing the reported dollar value of energy savings by the reported electricity savings in kWh. Projects with calculated electricity prices of greater than $0.25/kWh, or less than $0.01/kWh, which represented about 2% ofall ballasts, were excluded from the extract (we did this because there were some low and high values which were clearly erroneous, with 8 projects having calculated electricity prices of greater than $10/kWh.) For project years other than 1995, we then adjusted the electricity price to 1995 dollars by multiplying the price by the ratio of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 1995 over the CPI in the project year. The calculated electricity price was then rounded to the nearest cent and the number of ballasts at each electricity price was summed across the database. We then calculated the fraction of the total number of ballasts at each electricity price and plotted this fraction vs. electricity price, as shown in Figure 1. Commercial Electricity Data We obtained data on commercial electricity revenues and sales volumes from two EIA publications(1)(2) (we used 1995 data on investor-owned utilities, or IOUs, and 1994 data on publicly owned utilities, or POUs, because the 1995 POU data was not yet available when we did the calculation. IOUs accounted for 88% of sales in 1994 and presumably accounted for a similar fraction in 1995). For each utility which had commercial electricity sales, we divided the revenue for commercial sales by the amount of commercial electricity sold to derive the average commercial rate ($/kWh) for that utility. We rounded these rates to the nearest cent, then summed the kWh sold for all utilities at each rate. We then calculated the fraction of total sales at each electricity rate and plotted this, as shown in Figure 1. Discussion of Results The distribution of electricity rates for Green Lights ballasts is somewhat broader than the distribution for commercial sales, presumably because the Green Lights data was averaged at the facility level while the commercial sales data was averaged at the utility level. The commercial Page 2 April 1, 1998 electronic ballasts installed during the retrofit only. Becausethe GreenLights data did not report numbers ofballasts directly, we calculated it by dividing the reported value for lamps per fixture by the reported value for lamps per ballast to get ballasts perfixture, then multiplied by the number offixtures to get number ofballasts, for each record in the database. In some cases, lamps per ballast were not reported. Inthese cases we assumed thatthe number ofballasts would equal the number offixtures. We only included in the analysis electronic ballasts for operating 4ft, 8ft, or 8ftHO ballasts. Since the GreenLights data does not directly report lamp lengths, we lamps and the ballasts operating them to these categories based onthe lamp type (e.g. T8, T12 slimiine, etc.) and the reported lamp watts. Since GreenLights projects do not directly report electricity price, this value was calculated by dividing the reported dollar value ofenergy savings by the reported electricity savings in kWh. Projects with calculated electricity prices ofgreater than $O.25/kWh, or less than $O.OllkWh, which represented about 2% ofall ballasts, were excluded from the extract (we did this because there were some low and high values which were clearly erroneous, with 8 projects having calculated electricity prices ofgreaterthan $lO/kWh.) Forproject years otherthan 1995, we then adjusted the electricity price to 1995 dollars by multiplying the price by the ratio ofthe Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 1995 overthe CPI in the project year. The calculated electricity price was then rounded to the nearest cent and the number ofballasts at each electricity price was summed across the database. We then calculated the fraction ofthe total number ofballasts at each electricity price and plotted this fraction vs. electricity price, as shown in Figure 1. 

### Commercial Electricity Data We obtained data on commercial electricity revenues and sales volumes from two EIA publications(1)(2) (we used 1995 data oninvestor-owned utilities, or IODs, and 1994 data on publicly owned utilities, orPODs, because the 1995 POD data was not yet available whenwe did the calculation. IODs accounted for 88% ofsales in 1994 and presumably accounted for a similar fraction in 1995). For eachutility which had commercial electricity sales, we divided the revenue for commercial sales by the amount ofcommercial electricity sold to derive the average commercial rate ($/kWh) for that utility. We rounded these rates to the nearest cent, then summed the kWh sold for all utilities at each rate. Wethen calculated the fraction oftotal sales at each electricity rate and plotted this, as shown in Figure 1. 

### Discussion ofResults The distribution ofelectricity rates for GreenLights ballasts is somewhat broaderthan the distribution for commercial sales, presumably because the GreenLights data was averaged at the facility level while the commercial sales data was averaged at theutility level. The commercial Page 2 April 1, 1998 electronic ballasts installed during the retrofit only. Becausethe GreenLights data did not report numbers ofballasts directly, we calculated it by dividing the reported value for lamps per fixture by the reported value for lamps per ballast to get ballasts perfixture, then multiplied by the number offixtures to get number ofballasts, for each record in the database. In some cases, lamps per ballast were not reported. Inthese cases we assumed thatthe number ofballasts would equal the number offixtures. We only included in the analysis electronic ballasts for operating 4ft, 8ft, or 8ftHO ballasts. Since the GreenLights data does not directly report lamp lengths, we lamps and the ballasts operating them to these categories based onthe lamp type (e.g. T8, T12 slimiine, etc.) and the reported lamp watts. Since GreenLights projects do not directly report electricity price, this value was calculated by dividing the reported dollar value ofenergy savings by the reported electricity savings in kWh. Projects with calculated electricity prices ofgreater than $O.25/kWh, or less than $O.OllkWh, which represented about 2% ofall ballasts, were excluded from the extract (we did this because there were some low and high values which were clearly erroneous, with 8 projects having calculated electricity prices ofgreaterthan $lO/kWh.) Forproject years otherthan 1995, we then adjusted the electricity price to 1995 dollars by multiplying the price by the ratio ofthe Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 1995 overthe CPI in the project year. The calculated electricity price was then rounded to the nearest cent and the number ofballasts at each electricity price was summed across the database. We then calculated the fraction ofthe total number ofballasts at each electricity price and plotted this fraction vs. electricity price, as shown in Figure 1. 

### Commercial Electricity Data We obtained data on commercial electricity revenues and sales volumes from two EIA publications(1)(2) (we used 1995 data oninvestor-owned utilities, or IODs, and 1994 data on publicly owned utilities, orPODs, because the 1995 POD data was not yet available whenwe did the calculation. IODs accounted for 88% ofsales in 1994 and presumably accounted for a similar fraction in 1995). For eachutility which had commercial electricity sales, we divided the revenue for commercial sales by the amount ofcommercial electricity sold to derive the average commercial rate ($/kWh) for that utility. We rounded these rates to the nearest cent, then summed the kWh sold for all utilities at each rate. Wethen calculated the fraction oftotal sales at each electricity rate and plotted this, as shown in Figure 1. 

### Discussion ofResults The distribution ofelectricity rates for GreenLights ballasts is somewhat broaderthan the distribution for commercial sales, presumably because the GreenLights data was averaged at the facility level while the commercial sales data was averaged at theutility level. The commercialPage 3'

April 1, 1998 sales distribution has a shoulder at higher electricity prices which is absent in the Green Lights distribution

. The average electricity price for Green Lights ballasts is $0.079/kWh, vs. $0.078 for commercial electricity sales

. Based on this comparison, it appears that, at least for the Green Lights program, there is not a tendency for the purchasers of energy efficient ballasts to be located predominantly in areas with high electricity rates.

Distribution of Electricity Prices for Green Lights Ballasts

vs. U.S. Commercial Electricity Sales

0.25

0.2+

Cormercial Bectricity .... • .. Green Lights

0.05 -IM to O c, O r- O O O O O O '7 '7 7 O O O O 0 O O O 0 O O O 0 Bectricity Price M In N N N

Figure 1 PageJ April 1, 1998 sales distribution has a shoulder at higher electricity prices which is absent 

### in the GreenLights distribution. The average electricity price for GreenLights ballasts is $0.079lkWh, vs. $0.078 for commercial electricity sales. Based on this comparison, it appears that, at least for the Green Lights program, there is not a tendency for the purchasers ofenergy efficient ballasts to be located predominantly in areas with high electricity rates.

Distribution of Electricity Pricesfor Green lights Ballasts vs. U.S. Commercial Electricity Sales
0.25,----------------------,

0.2

c 0.15 o**~** 

## e LI- 0.1

0.05

0 (; ('") 0 ci ci 

# .

LO 0 ci " " 

# . ' 

# .

"-

0 ci m ('") LO "- m 0 

# ... ci 0 ci ci ci ci Bectrlclty Price



### Figure 1 

### .... ('") N N ci ci LO N ci --- Corrmercial 8ectricity
• • • • . •• Green Lights PageJ April 1, 1998 sales distribution has a shoulder at higher electricity prices which is absent 

### in the GreenLights distribution. The average electricity price for GreenLights ballasts is $0.079lkWh, vs. $0.078 for commercial electricity sales. Based on this comparison, it appears that, at least for the Green Lights program, there is not a tendency for the purchasers ofenergy efficient ballasts to be located predominantly in areas with high electricity rates.

Distribution of Electricity Pricesfor Green lights Ballasts vs. U.S. Commercial Electricity Sales
0.25,----------------------,

0.2

c 0.15 o**~** 

## e LI- 0.1

0.05

0 (; ('") 0 ci ci 

# .

LO 0 ci " " 

# . ' 

# .

"-

0 ci m ('") LO "- m 0 

# ... ci 0 ci ci ci ci Bectrlclty Price



### Figure 1 

### .... ('") N N ci ci LO N ci ---CorrmerciaI8ectricity
• • • • . •• Green LightsPage 4

April 1, 1998 1. EIA, 1996. Financial Statistics of Major US. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities 1995. DOE/EIA-0437(95)/1, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington DC. 2. EIA, 1995

. Financial Statistics of Major U. S. Publicly Owned Electric Utilities 1994. DOE/EIA-0437(94)/2, Energy Information Administration, U. S. Department of Energy, Washington DC. 

### Page 4 April 1, 

### 1998 1. EIA, 1996. FinancialStatistics of Major U.S. Investor-OwnedElectric Utilities 1995. 

### DOEIEIA-0437(95)/l, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department ofEnergy, Washington DC. 2. EIA, 1995. FinancialStatistics of Major U.s. Publicly OwnedElectric Utilities 1994. 

### DOEIEIA-0437(94)/2, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department ofEnergy, Washington DC. Page 4 April 1, 

### 1998 1. EIA, 1996. FinancialStatistics of Major U.S. Investor-OwnedElectric Utilities 1995. 

### DOEIEIA-0437(95)/l, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department ofEnergy, Washington DC. 2. EIA, 1995. FinancialStatistics of Major U.s. Publicly OwnedElectric Utilities 1994. 

### DOEIEIA-0437(94)/2, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department ofEnergy, Washington DC.