TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1. IN TRODUCTION

**1.1 PU**  **RPOSE OF**  **THE DOCUMENT**  **.........................................................1­1**

**1.2 OV**  **ERVIEW OF**  **THE APPLIANCES**  **AND COMMERCIAL** 

**EQUIPMENT STANDARDS**  **PROGRAM.............................................1­1**

**1.3 OV**  **ERVIEW OF**  **THE SUBCATEGORIES**  **OF LAMPS**  **COVERED ...1­2** 

**1.4 PR**  **OCESS FOR**  **SETTING ENERGY**  **CONERVATION**

**STANDARDS..........................................................................................1­4**

**1.5 STR**  **UCTURE OF**  **THE DOCUMENT....................................................1­7** 

CHAPTER 2. AN ALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

**2.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**................................... ................................................2­1** 

**2.2 BA**  **CKGROUND .....................................................................................2­4** 

**2.3 MA**  **RKET AND**  **TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT**  **................................2­4**

**2.3.1 Ma**  **rket Assessment**  **..................................................................................2­4**

**2.3.2 Tec**  **hnology Assessment...........................................................................2­4** 

**2.3.3 Pr**  **oduct Classes**  **........................................................................................2­5**

**2.4 SC**  **REENING ANALYSIS**  **......................................................................2­5**

**2.5 ENGI**  **NEERING ANALYSIS..................................................................2­5** 

**2.5.1 Re**  **presentative Product**  **Classes ...............................................................2­5** 

**2.5.2 Se**  **lected Baseline**  **Lamps .........................................................................2­5** 

**2.5.3 Identified**  **L amps**  **and Ballast**  **Designs .....................................................2­6** 

**2.5.4 De**  **veloped Candidate**  **Standard Level......................................................2­6** 

**2.6 ENERG**  **Y USE**  **CHARACTERIZATION ...............................................2­6** 

**2.7 PR**  **ODUCT PRICE**  **DETERMINATION ................................................2­7** 

**2.8 LIF**  **E­CYCLE COST**  **AND PAYBACK**  **PERIOD ANALYSIS**  **.............2­7**

**2.9 NAT**  **IONAL IMPACT**  **ANALYSIS ........................................................2­8** 

**2.9.1 Nat**  **ional Energy**  **Savings Analysis...........................................................2­8** 

**2.9.2 Net**  **Present Value**  **Analysis .....................................................................2­8** 

**2.9.3 Eff**  **iciency Scenarios**  **and Trends**  **.............................................................2­9**

**2.10 LIF**  **E­CYCLE COST**  **SUB­GROUP ANALYSIS**  **...................................2­10**

**2.11 MA**  **NUFACTURER IMPACT**  **ANALYSIS............................................2­10**

**2.12 UT**  **ILITY IMPACT**  **ANALYSIS .............................................................2­10** 

**2.13 ENVI**  **RONMENTAL ASSESSMENT**  **....................................................2­11**

**2.14 EMP**  **LOYMENT IMPACT**  **ANALYSIS .................................................2­11** 

**2.15 REG**  **ULATORY IMPACT**  **ANALYSIS .................................................2­12** 

**2.16 DEP**  **ARTMENT OF**  **JUSTICE REVIEW**  **...............................................2­12**

**1**CHAPTER 3. MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

**3.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**................................... ................................................3­1** 

**3.1.1 De**  **finitions................................................................................................3­1**

**3.1.1.1 Fl**  **uorescent Lamps**  **...................................................................................3­1**

**3.1.1.2 Ge**  **neral Service**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................3­2**

**3.1.1.3 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................3­3** 

**3.2 MA**  **RKET ASSESSMENT**  **......................................................................3­4**

**3.2.1 Tra**  **de Association**  **....................................................................................3­4**

**3.2.2 Ma**  **nufacturers and**  **Market Share.............................................................3­5** 

**3.2.2.1 Sm**  **all Businesses......................................................................................3­6** 

**3.2.3 Re**  **gulatory Programs**  **...............................................................................3­7**

**3.2.3.1 Fe**  **deral Energy**  **Conservation Standards**  **..................................................3­7**

**3.2.3.2 Ca**  **nadian Energy**  **Efficiency Standards**  **...................................................3­10**

**3.2.4 Non**  **­Regulatory Initiatives.......................................................................3­12** 

**3.2.4.1 Fe**  **deral Energy**  **Management Program**  **....................................................3­12**

**3.2.4.2 Co**  **nsortium for**  **Energy Efficiency...........................................................3­12** 

**3.2.4.3 Ene**  **rgy Efficient**  **Commercial Building**  **Deduction..................................3­12**

**3.2.4.4 Nor**  **theast Energy**  **Efficiency Partnerships**  **...............................................3­13**

**3.2.5 Hi**  **storical Shipments................................................................................3­13** 

**3.3 TECH**  **NOLOGY ASSESSMENT............................................................3­16** 

**3.3.1 Ge**  **neral Service**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................3­16**

**3.3.1.1 Hi**  **ghly Emissive**  **Electrode Coatings**  **.......................................................3­18**

**3.3.1.2 Hi**  **gher Efficiency**  **Lamp Fill**  **Gas Composition**  **.......................................3­18**

**3.3.1.3 Hi**  **gher Efficiency**  **Phosphors ...................................................................3­20** 

**3.3.1.4 Gl**  **ass Coatings**  **.........................................................................................3­25**

**3.3.1.5 Hi**  **gher Efficiency**  **Lamp Diameter...........................................................3­25** 

**3.3.1.6 Mu**  **lti­Photon Phosphors**  **..........................................................................3­26**

**3.3.2 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................3­26** 

**3.3.2.1 Hi**  **gher Temperature**  **Operation ................................................................3­27** 

**3.3.2.2 Mi**  **crocavity Filaments**  **.............................................................................3­28**

**3.3.2.3 Nov**  **el Filament**  **Materials ........................................................................3­29** 

**3.3.2.4 Thi**  **nner Filaments**  **....................................................................................3­29**

**3.3.2.5 Eff**  **icient Filament**  **Coiling .......................................................................3­29** 

**3.3.2.6 Cr**  **ystallite Filament**  **Coatings ..................................................................3­29** 

**3.3.2.7 Eff**  **icient Filament**  **Orientation .................................................................3­29** 

**3.3.2.8 Hi**  **gher Efficiency**  **Inert Fill**  **Gas ..............................................................3­30** 

**3.3.2.9 Lu**  **minescent Gas......................................................................................3­30** 

**3.3.2.10 Tun**  **gsten­Halogen Lamps........................................................................3­30** 

**3.3.2.11 Hi**  **gher Pressure**  **Tungsten­Halogen Lamps**  **.............................................3­30**

**3.3.2.12 Non**  **­Tungsten­Halogen Regenerative**  **Cycles..........................................3­31**

**3.3.2.13 Infrared**  **Glass C**  **oatings............................................................................3­31**

**3.3.2.14 Integrally**  **B allasted**  **Low­Voltage Lamps**  **................................................3­31**

**3.3.2.15 Hi**  **gher Efficiency**  **Reflector Coatings......................................................3­31** 

**3.3.2.16 Tri**  **hedral Corner**  **Reflectors .....................................................................3­32** 

**3.3.2.17 Eff**  **icient Filament**  **Placement...................................................................3­32**

**2 3.4**  **PRODUCT CL**  **ASSES.............................................................................3­32**

**3.4.1 General**  **Service F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **........................................................3­32**

**3.4.1.1 Physical**  **Constraints of**  **F luorescent**  **Lamps .............................................3­33** 

**3.4.1.2 Lumen**  **Package**

**.............................. ..........................................................3­34** 

**3.4.1.3 Correlated**  **Co lor**  **Temperature .................................................................3­34** 

**3.4.1.4 Ballast**  **Interoperability.............................................................................3­34**

**3 .4.1.5**  **Lamp Wattage** 

**............................... ...........................................................3­35** 

**3.4.1.6 Lamp**  **Diameter**

**.............................. ..........................................................3­35** 

**3.4.1.7 Color**  **Rendering I**  **ndex.............................................................................3­36**

**3.4.1.8 Product**  **Classes a**  **nd Standard**  **Form for**  **GSFL ........................................3­36** 

**3.4.2 Incandescent**  **Re flector**  **Lamps .................................................................3­36** 

**3.4.2.1 Wattage**  **....................................................................................................3 ­37** 

**3.4.2.2 Modified**  **Spectrum ..................................................................................3**  **­37**

**3.4.2.3 Spot**  **Versus F**  **lood Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **..................................3­38**

**3.4.2.4 Product**  **Classes a**  **nd Standard**  **Form for**  **IRL ...........................................3­38** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................3­**  **40**

CHAPTER 4. SC REENING ANALYSIS

**4.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................4 ­1** 

**4.2 SCREENED­OUT**  **TECHNOLGIES.......................................................4­2**

**4.2.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamp Screened­Out**  **Technologies ............4­2** 

**4.2.1.1 Multi­Photon**  **Phosphors ..........................................................................4­2** 

**4.2.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamp**  **Screened­Out Technologies**  **.....................4­2**

**4.2.2.1 Microcavity**  **Filaments .............................................................................4­3** 

**4.2.2.2 Novel**  **Filament Materials**  **........................................................................4­3**

**4.2.2.3 Crystallite**  **Filament Coatings**  **..................................................................4­3**

**4.2.2.4 Luminescent**  **Gas......................................................................................4­4**

**4.2.2.5 Non­Tungsten­Halogen**  **Regenerative Cycles..........................................4­4** 

**4.2.2.6 Infrared**  **Phosphor Glass**  **Coating .............................................................4­5** 

**4.2.2.7 Integrally**  **Ballasted Low**  **Voltage Lamps**  **................................................4­5**

**4.2.2.8 Trihedral**  **Corner Reflectors**  **.....................................................................4­5**

**4.3 SUMMARY**  **OF TECHNOLOGY**  **OPTIONS SCREENED**  **OUT..........4­6**

**4.4 REMAINING**  **TECHNOLOGIES ...........................................................4­6** 

**4.4.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps Design**  **Options ..............................4­6** 

**4.4.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **Design Options**  **.......................................4­7**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................4­8** 

CHAPTER 5. EN GINEERING ANALYSIS

**5.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................5 ­1** 

**5.2 ENGINEERING**  **ANALYSIS FR**  **AMEWORK.......................................5­1**

**5.3 GENERAL**  **SER VICE**  **FLUORESCENT LAMPS..................................5­3** 

**5.3.1 Four­Foot**  **Me dium**  **Bipin .........................................................................5­6** 

**3 5.3.1.1**  **Baseline Models.......................................................................................5­6** 

**5 .3.1.2**  **Candidate Standard**  **L evels**  **......................................................................5­8**

**5.3.1.3 System**  **Power R**  **ating...............................................................................5­11**

**5.3.1.4 Results......................................................................................................5­19** 

**5.3.2 Eight­foot**  **Single P**  **in Slimline**  **.................................................................5­24**

**5.3.2.1 Baseline**  **Models.......................................................................................5­24**

**5 .3.2.2**  **Candidate Standard**  **L evels**  **......................................................................5­25**

**5.3.2.3 System**  **Power R**  **ating...............................................................................5­28**

**5.3.2.4 Results......................................................................................................5­32** 

**5.3.3 Eight­Foot**  **Re cessed**  **Double Contact**  **HO ...............................................5­36** 

**5.3.3.1 Baseline**  **Models.......................................................................................5­36**

**5 .3.3.2**  **Candidate Standard**  **L evels**  **......................................................................5­36**

**5.3.3.3 System**  **Power R**  **ating...............................................................................5­39**

**5.3.3.4 Results......................................................................................................5­41** 

**5.4 INCANDESCENT**  **REF LECTOR**  **LAMPS.............................................5­44**

**5.4.1 Baseline**  **Models.......................................................................................5­45**

**5 .4.2**  **Candidate Standard**  **L evels**  **......................................................................5­45**

**5.4.3 Results......................................................................................................5­47** 

**5.5 SCALING**  **TO PRODUCT**  **CL ASSES**  **NOT ANALYZED**  **....................5­49**

**5.5.1 General**  **Service F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **........................................................5­49**

**5.5.2 Incandescent**  **Re flector**  **Lamps .................................................................5­50** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................5­**  **52**

CHAPTER 6. EN ERGY USE CHARACTERIZATION

**6.1 PURPOSE**  **OF THE**  **DOCUMENT .........................................................6­1** 

**6.2 OPERATING**  **HOURS ............................................................................6**  **­1**

**6.3 RESULTS**  **OF THE**  **ENERGY USE**  **CHARACTERIZATION ..............6­8** 

**6.3.1 General**  **Service F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **........................................................6­8**

**6.3.2 Incandescent**  **Re flector**  **Lamps .................................................................6­11** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................6­13** 

CHAPTER 7. PR ODUCT PRICE DETERMINATION

**7.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................7 ­1** 

**7.2 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................7 ­1** 

**7.2.1 End­User**  **Product P**  **rice............................................................................7­1**

**7.2.2 Sales**  **Tax ..................................................................................................7**  **­3**

**7.3 PRODUCT**  **PR ICE**  **DETERMINATION RESULTS**  **..............................7­4**

**7.3.1 End­User**  **Prices f**  **or General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps........................7­4**

**7.3.2 End­User**  **Prices f**  **or Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **................................7­6**

**7.3.3 Sales**  **Tax R**  **esults .....................................................................................7­7** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................7­9** 

**4**CHAPTER 8. LIFE­CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSIS

**8.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................8 ­1** 

**8.1.1 General**  **Approach f**  **or Life­Cycle**  **Cost and**  **Payback Period**  **Analyses ...8­1** 

**8.1.2 Overview**  **of LC**  **C and**  **PBP Inputs...........................................................8­3** 

**8.2 LIFE­CYCLE**  **CO ST**  **INPUTS ................................................................8­6** 

**8.2.1 Definition**  **.................................................................................................8­ 6** 

**8.2.2 Total**  **Installed Cost**  **I nputs**  **.......................................................................8­7**

**8.2.2.1 Installation**  **Co sts......................................................................................8­8** 

**8.2.3 Operating**  **Cost I**  **nputs ..............................................................................8­10** 

**8.2.3.1 Operating**  **Hours.......................................................................................8­11**

**8 .2.3.2**  **Power Rating............................................................................................8­11** 

**8 .2.3.3**  **Electricity Prices** 

**......................... .............................................................8­12** 

**8.2.3.4 Electricity**  **Price Tr**  **end .............................................................................8­13** 

**8.2.4 Lifetime....................................................................................................8­16** 

**8.2.5 Replacement**  **Co st**  **....................................................................................8­16**

**8.2.6 Analysis**  **Period ........................................................................................8**  **­17**

**8.2.7 Discount**  **Rate...........................................................................................8­18**

**8 .2.7.1**  **Residential Di**  **scount Rate........................................................................8­18** 

**8.2.7.2 Commercial**  **Di scount**  **Rate ......................................................................8­22** 

**8.2.8 Effective**  **Date o**  **f Standard.......................................................................8­25** 

**8.2.9 Salvage**  **Value ..........................................................................................8**  **­26**

**8.3 PAYBACK**  **PERIOD IN**  **PUTS ................................................................8­26** 

**8.3.1 Definition**  **.................................................................................................8­ 26** 

**8.3.2 Rebuttable**  **Pr esumption**  **Payback Period**  **.................................................8­27**

**8.3.3 Inputs........................................................................................................8­28** 

**8.4 LAMP**  **PURCHASING EV**  **ENTS............................................................8­28**

**8.5 LIFE­CYCLE**  **CO ST**  **AND PAYBACK**  **PERIOD RESULTS**  **................8­30**

**8.5.1 Results**  **for G**  **eneral Service**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **......................................8­31**

**8.5.1.1 Product**  **Class: F**  **our­foot medium**  **bipin ≤4,500K....................................8­31** 

**8.5.1.2 Product**  **Class: 8**  **­Foot single**  **pin slimline**  **≤4,500K .................................8­43** 

**8.5.1.3 Product**  **Class: 8**  **­foot recessed**  **double contact**  **HO ≤4,500K...................8­51** 

**8.5.2 Life­Cycle**  **Co st**  **Results for**  **Incandescent Reflector**  **Lamps....................8­57**

**8.6 DETAILED**  **RESULTS AND**  **SENSITIVITY RUNS.............................8­61** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................8­**  **62**

CHAPTER 9. SH IPMENTS ANALYSIS

**9.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................9 ­1** 

**9.2 SHIPMENTS**  **MO DEL**  **METHODOLOGY ............................................9­1** 

**9.2.1 General**  **Service F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **........................................................9­2**

**9.2.1.1 Lamp**  **Replacement**

**........................... .......................................................9­2** 

**9.2.1.2 Lamp­and­Ballast**  **Sy stem**  **Replacement ..................................................9­3** 

**9.2.1.3 Lamp­and­Ballast**  **Sy stem**  **New Purchase**  **................................................9­4**

**5 9.2.2**  **Incandescent Re**  **flector Lamps**  **.................................................................9­4**

**9.2.2.1 Emerging**  **Technologies**

**...................... .....................................................9­5** 

**9.3 BASE­CASE**  **INP UTS**  **AND FORECASTS**  **...........................................9­5**

**9.3.1 General**  **Service F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **........................................................9­5**

**9.3.1.1 Historical**  **Shipments................................................................................9­5**

**9 .3.1.2**  **Shipments Pr**  **ojections to**  **2011 and**  **Calculations of**  **2011 Lamp**  **and**

**Ballast Stocks...........................................................................................9­6** 

**9 .3.1.3**  **Base­Case Ma**  **rket­Share Matrices...........................................................9­7** 

**9.3.1.4 Base­Case**  **Fo recast**  **Results .....................................................................9­12** 

**9.3.1.5 Base­Case**  **Fo recast**  **by Market**  **Segment..................................................9­15**

**9.3.2 Incandescent**  **Re flector**  **Lamps .................................................................9­18** 

**9.3.2.1 Historical**  **Shipments................................................................................9­18**

**9 .3.2.2**  **Shipments Pr**  **ojections to**  **2011 and**  **Calculations of**  **2011 Lamp**  **Stock ...9­19** 

**9.3.2.3 Base­Case**  **Ma rket­Share**  **Matrices...........................................................9­19**

**9.3.2.4 Base­Case**  **Fo recast**  **Results .....................................................................9­21** 

**9.3.2.5 Base­Case**  **Fo recast**  **by Market**  **Segment..................................................9­23**

**9.4 STANDARDS­CASE**  **IN PUTS**  **...............................................................9­24**

**9.4.1 General**  **Service F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **........................................................9­24**

**9.4.1.1 Shipments**  **Sc enarios**  **................................................................................9­24**

**9.4.1.2 Standards­Case**  **Ma rket­Share**  **Matrices...................................................9­25**

**9.4.1.3 Early**  **Retirement o**  **f Ballasts**  **in the**  **Standards Cases**  **...............................9­42**

**9.4.2 Incandescent**  **Re flector**  **Lamps .................................................................9­44** 

**9.4.2.1 Shipments**  **Sc enarios**  **................................................................................9­44**

**9.4.2.2 Standards­Case**  **Ma rket­Share**  **Matrices...................................................9­45**

**9.5 RESULTS**  **................................................................................................9­ 48** 

**9.5.1 General**  **Service F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **........................................................9­48**

**9.5.1.1 Shipments**  **Fo recasts:**  **Base and**  **Standards Cases.....................................9­48** 

**9.5.1.2 Cumulative**  **Sh ipments**  **Impacts (2012** 

**– 2042)........................................9­54** 

**9.5.2 Incandescent**  **Re flector**  **Lamps .................................................................9­56** 

**9.5.2.1 Shipments**  **Fo recasts:**  **Base and**  **Standards Cases....................................9­56** 

**9.5.2.2 Cumulative**  **Sh ipments**  **Impacts (2012–2042)..........................................9­58** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................9­**  **60**

CHAPTER 10. NA TIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

**10.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................1 0­1** 

**10.2 BASE**  **CASE A**  **ND STANDARDS**  **CASE EFFICACY**  **FORECASTS,**

**LAMP STOCK,**  **AND LIGHT**  **OUTPUT ................................................10­1** 

**10.2.1 General**  **Service F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **........................................................10­3**

**10.2.1.1 Base**  **and S**  **tandards Case**  **Efficacy Distributions**  **.....................................10­3**

**10.2.1.2 Installed**  **Lamp S**  **tock ...............................................................................10­9** 

**10.2.1.3 Average**  **Lamp Ef**  **ficacy and**  **Ballast Factor**  **in the**  **Stock.........................10­14**

**10.2.1.4 Light**  **Output.............................................................................................10­20**

**1 0.2.2**  **Incandescent Re**  **flector Lamps**  **.................................................................10­24**

**10.2.2.1 Base**  **and S**  **tandards Case**  **Efficacy Distributions**  **.....................................10­24**

**6 10.2.2.2**  **Installed Lamp**  **S tock**  **...............................................................................10­25**

**10.2.2.3 Average**  **Lamp Ef**  **ficacy of**  **the Stock.......................................................10­27** 

**10.2.2.4 Light**  **Output.............................................................................................10­29**

**1 0.3**  **NATIONAL ENERG**  **Y SAVINGS**  **.........................................................10­31**

**10.3.1 National**  **Energy S**  **avings Definition**  **........................................................10­31**

**10.3.2 National**  **Energy S**  **avings Inputs...............................................................10­32** 

**10.3.2.1 Unit**  **Energy C**  **onsumption (UEC)............................................................10­32** 

**10.3.2.2 Lamp**  **Stock ..............................................................................................1**  **0­32**

**10.3.2.3 Site­to­Source**  **Co nversion**  **Factors ..........................................................10­32** 

**10.3.2.4 Interactions**  **wi th**  **Heating, Ventilation,**  **and Air­Conditioning**  **(HVAC)**

**Systems ....................................................................................................10**  **­33**

**10.3.2.5 Rebound**  **Rate...........................................................................................10­34**

**1 0.4**  **NET PRESENT**  **V ALUE**  **.........................................................................10­34**

**10.4.1 Net**  **Present V**  **alue Definition**  **...................................................................10­34**

**10.4.2 Net**  **Present V**  **alue Inputs**  **.........................................................................10­35**

**10.4.2.1 Total**  **Annual I**  **nstalled Cost**  **Increases .....................................................10­36** 

**10.4.2.2 Total**  **Annual O**  **perating Cost**  **Savings .....................................................10­36** 

**10.4.2.3 Discount**  **Factor ........................................................................................1**  **0­36**

**10.5 NATIONAL**  **ENERG Y**  **SAVINGS AND**  **NET PRESENT**  **VALUE**

**RESULTS ................................................................................................10**  **­37**

**10.5.1 National**  **Energy S**  **avings and**  **Net Present**  **Value Input**  **Summary...........10­37**

**10.5.2 Base**  **Case En**  **ergy Consumption..............................................................10­38** 

**10.5.3 National**  **Energy S**  **avings Results.............................................................10­40** 

**10.5.3.1 General**  **Service F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **........................................................10­40**

**10.5.3.2 Incandescent**  **Re flector**  **Lamps .................................................................10­42** 

**10.5.4 Annual**  **Costs a**  **nd Savings**  **.......................................................................10­43**

**10.5.5 Net**  **Present V**  **alue Results........................................................................10­45** 

**10.5.5.1 General**  **Service F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **........................................................10­46**

**10.5.5.2 Incandescent**  **Re flector**  **Lamps .................................................................10­47** 

CHAPTER 11. LI FE­CYCLE COST SUB­GROUP ANALYSIS

**11.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................1 1­1** 

**11.2 GENERAL**  **AP PROACH**  **TO THE**  **LIFE­CYCLE COST**  **SUB**

**GROUP ANALYSIS**  **...............................................................................11­1**

CHAPTER 12. PR ELIMINARY MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS

**12.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................1 2­1** 

**12.2 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................1 2­1** 

**12.2.1 Phase**  **I: I**  **ndustry Profile..........................................................................12­2** 

**12.2.2 Phase**  **II: I**  **ndustry Cash­Flow**  **Analysis and**  **Interview Guide.................12­2** 

**12.2.3 Phase**  **III: S**  **ub­Group Analysis**  **...............................................................12­3**

**12.3 PRELIMINARY**  **MANUFACTURER IM**  **PACT OVERVIEW..............12­5** 

**12.3.1 Overview**  **of In**  **dustry Data.......................................................................12­5** 

**7 12.3.2**  **Preliminary Ma**  **nufacturing Interview**  **Overview.....................................12­7**

**12.4 GENERAL**  **SER VICE**  **FLUORESCENT LAMPS..................................12­9** 

**12.4.1 Product**  **Mix .............................................................................................1**  **2­9**

**12.4.2 Conversion**  **Co sts**  **.....................................................................................12­10**

**12.4.3 Materials**  **Availability**

**...................... ........................................................12­10** 

**12.5 INCANDESCENT**  **REF LECTOR**  **LAMPS.............................................12­10**

**12.5.1 Product**  **Mix .............................................................................................1**  **2­10**

**12.5.2 Conversion**  **Co sts**  **.....................................................................................12­11**

**12.6 SUMMARY**  **OF MA**  **JOR ISSUES**  **FROM PRELIMINARY**  **MIA ........12­11** 

**12.6.1 Retooling**  **Equ ipment**  **to Produce**  **Standards­Compliant Lamps**  **..............12­11**

**12.6.2 Availability**  **of Materials**  **to Produce**  **Standards­Compliant Lamps**  **.........12­11**

**12.6.3 Maintaining**  **Pr oduct**  **Availability and**  **Features .......................................12­11** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................12**  **­13**

CHAPTER 13. UT ILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

**13.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................1 3­1** 

**13.2 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................1 3­1** 

**13.3 RESULTS**  **................................................................................................13 ­3** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................13­4** 

CHAPTER 14. EM PLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS

**14.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................1 4­1** 

**14.2 ASSUMPTIONS......................................................................................14­1** 

**14.3 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................1 4­1** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................14­3** 

ENVIRONMENTAL AS SESSMENT FOR PROPOSED ENERGY

CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR GENERAL SERVICE

FLUORESCENT LAMPS AND INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS

**EA.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................EA­2** 

**EA.2 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................EA­2**

**EA.3 RESULTS**  **................................................................................................EA­4**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................EA­5** 

REGULATORY IMPACT AN ALYSIS

**RIA.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**................................. ..................................................RIA­1** 

**RIA.2 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................RIA­1**

**8**APPENDIX 3A. LIGHTING DEFINITIONS IN THE UNITED STATES

CODE AND CODE OF FEDERAL REGULATIONS

**3A.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................3 A­1** 

**3A.1.1 General**  **Service F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **........................................................3A­1**

**3A.1.1.1 United**  **States C**  **ode Definitions................................................................3A­1** 

**3A.1.1.2 Code**  **of F**  **ederal Regulations**  **Definitions in**  **10 CFR**  **430.2 .....................3A­2** 

**3A.1.2 Incandescent**  **Re flector**  **Lamps .................................................................3A­4** 

**3A.1.2.1 United**  **States C**  **ode Definitions................................................................3A­4** 

**3A.1.2.2 Code**  **of F**  **ederal Regulations**  **Definitions in**  **10 CFR**  **430.2 .....................3A­7** 

**3A.1.3 All**  **Covered L**  **amps ..................................................................................3A­8** 

APPENDIX 5A. EN GINEERING RESULTS USED IN THE SHIPMENTS

AND NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

**5A.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................5A­1** 

**5A.2 GENERAL**  **SERVICE FLUORESCENT**  **LAMPS..................................5A­1**

**5A.2.1 4­foot**  **Medium Bipin**  **General Service**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **.....................5A­2**

**5A.2.2 8­foot**  **Single Pin**  **Slimline General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps .............5A­5** 

**5A.2.3 8­foot**  **Recessed Double**  **Contact HO**  **General Service**  **Fluorescent**

**Lamps.......................................................................................................5A­7**

**5A .3**  **INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR**  **LAMPS.............................................5A­8**

APPENDIX 6A. EN ERGY USE CHARACTERIZATION RESULTS USED

IN THE NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

**6A.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................6A­1** 

**6A.2 GENERAL**  **SERVICE FLUORESCENT**  **LAMPS..................................6A­1**

**6A.3 INCANDESCENT**  **REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................6A­4** 

APPENDIX 7A. AD DITIONAL END­USER PRICES

**7A.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................7A­1** 

**7A.2 FLUORESCENT**  **LAMP BALLASTS**  **....................................................7A­1**

**7A.3 INCANDESCENT**  **REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................7A­1** 

APPENDIX 8A. US ER INSTRUCTIONS FOR LCC AND PBP

SPREADSHEETS

**8A.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................8A­1** 

**8A.2 LCC**  **AND PBP**  **WORKBOOK ...............................................................8A­1** 

**9 8A.3**  **BASIC INSTRUCTIONS**  **........................................................................8A­2**

APPENDIX 8B. SU PPLEMENTARY LIFE CYCLE COST AND

PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS

**8B.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................8 B­1** 

**8B.2 INTRODUCTION**  **TO UNCERTAINTY**  **AND VARIABILITY**  **...........8 B­1** 

**8B.3 UNCERTAINTY**  **.....................................................................................8 B­2** 

**8B.4 VARIABILITY........................................................................................8B­2** 

**8B.5 APPROACHES**  **TO UNCERTAINTY**  **AND VARIABILITY**  **...............8B­2**

**8B.6 PROBABILITY**  **ANALYSIS AND**  **THE USE**  **OF CRYSTAL**  **BALL...8B­3**

**8B.7 GENERAL**  **SER VICE**  **FLUORESCENT RESULTS..............................8B­4** 

**8B.7.1 Monte**  **Carlo R**  **esults ................................................................................8B­4** 

**8B.7.1.1 4­foot**  **Medium B**  **ipin ...............................................................................8B­4** 

**8B.7.1.2 8­foot**  **Single P**  **in Slimline........................................................................8B­10** 

**8B.7.1.3 8­foot**  **Recessed D**  **ouble Contact**  **High Output.........................................8B­13** 

**8B.7.2 Lamp**  **and B**  **allast Price**  **Scenario Results**  **................................................8B­17**

**8B.7.2.1 4­foot**  **Medium B**  **ipin ...............................................................................8B­17** 

**8B.7.2.2 8­foot**  **Single P**  **in Slimline........................................................................8B­32** 

**8B.7.2.3 8­foot**  **Recessed D**  **ouble Contact**  **HO .......................................................8B­41** 

**8B.8 INCANDESCENT**  **REF LECTOR**  **RESULTS.........................................8B­51**

**8B.8.3 Monte**  **Carlo R**  **esults ................................................................................8B­52** 

**8B.8.4 Lamp**  **Price S**  **cenario Results**  **...................................................................8B­55**

**8B.8.5 Operating**  **Hour S**  **cenario Results.............................................................8B­62** 

APPENDIX 8C. RE SIDENTIAL DISCOUNT RATE DISTRIBUTIONS

**8C.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................8C­1** 

**8C.2 DISTRIBUTION**  **OF REAL**  **INTEREST RATES**  **FOR CONSUMER** 

**DEBT CLASSES** 

**....................................... ..............................................8C­1** 

**8C.3 DISTRIBUTION**  **OF REAL**  **INTEREST RATES**  **FOR FINANCIAL** 

**ASSETS ...................................................................................................8**  **C­2**

APPENDIX 9A. SU PPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE

SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

**9A.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................9A­1** 

**9A.2 STANDARDS­CASE**  **MARKET­SHARE MATRICES**  **........................9A­1**

**9A.3 RESULTS**  **................................................................................................9A­4**

APPENDIX 10A. US ER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA

SPREADSHEETS

**10 10A.1**  **INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................1**  **0A­1**

**10A.1.1 General**  **Service F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **........................................................10A­1**

**10A.1.2 Incandescent**  **Re flector**  **Lamps .................................................................10A­5** 

**10A.2 BASIC**  **INSTRUCTIONS**

**........................... .............................................10A­5** 

**10A.2.1 General**  **Service F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **........................................................10A­5**

**10A.2.2 Incandescent**  **Re flector**  **Lamps .................................................................10A­6** 

APPENDIX 10B. SU PPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE

NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

**10B.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**................................. ..................................................10B­1** 

**10B.2 STANDARDS**  **CASE EFFICACY**  **FORECAST, LAMP**  **STOCK AND** 

**LUMEN OUTPUT...................................................................................10B­1** 

**10B.3 NATIONAL**  **ENERGY SAVINGS**  **AND NET**  **PRESENT VALUE** 

**RESULTS ................................................................................................10B­7** 

APPENDIX 12A. PR ELIMINARY MANUFACTURER INTERVIEW

GUIDE

**12A.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**................................. ..................................................12A­1** 

**12A.2 GENERAL**  **SERVICE FLUORESCENT**  **LAMPS..................................12A­2**

**12A.3 INCANDESCENT**  **REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................12A­11** 

**11**