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Michael Armstrong Aviation Program Manager Southern California Association of Governments March 11, 2008

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# Success Based on Group Resolve to Find

Workable and Fair Solutions

Membership isVoluntary

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# Regional Air Passenger Demand

(2002 and 2030) 2002 (Existing)
Ontario 8% Palm Springs



## 1°1<> Long Beach 

## 2%

LAX



## 73°1<> 

# 2030 (Preferred Plan)
Palmdale 8% San Bernardino Palm Springs 5% 2% SoCal Logistics 2% 

### Burbank 

## 6°1<> John Wayne 

## 10°1<> Ontario 18%

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# LAX 46% Burbank



# -- 6%

~ John Wayne

6%

Southern California l\,ssociation of Governments ASSOCl ••.l101rr1 0' GOYEA"'llilE'H5 

### March 5% Long Beach 2%

# 2030 InternatiDnal Air Passengers (Preferred Plan)
2002 International Percentages 2030 International Percentages

John Wayne 1% Palmdale 4% 

## Ontario Palm Springs 0.27%> 0.00% Palm Springs 0% Ontario



# -- 11%



## LAX 99.73%> LAX 84%

# 2030 Air Cargo Demand

(Pre'erred Plan)
2002 Air Cargo Percentages 2030 Air Cargo Percentages

Los Angeles 

### 74% 

## Long Beach 2% Palmdale

12%) Ontario 

### 21% John Wayne 

### 1% Long Beach 

# ---=--- 2% 

## Palm Springs 1%) Palm Springs 0% 

## Ontario 26% San Bernardino 13%)
March 

## 13% SoCal Logistics 

## 6% 

## Burbank 

## 1% John Wayne 

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# Airport Constraints Airport Constraint LAX Physical/Policy - 78 MAP Bob Hope Physical - 9.6-10.7 MAP

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# John Wayne Legal - 10.8 MAP Long Beach Legal - 3-3.8 MAP Ontario Physical - 30 MAP

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# INTRODUCTION

• What is Airport Decentralization?

- Ability to meet demands of the region

- Better utilization of regional airports 

# • Why must we decentralize?

Limited capacity at urbanized airports

- Continued and growing demand from the urbanized areas in the region

- LAX settlement agreement 

# • SCAG's Regional Aviation Plan provides the solution

- Airport decentralization concept evolved from 2001 and 2004 RTP

- Shift passenger demand to inland airports

- Growth of outlying airports supported by reliable, very high-speed ground access

Southern California Asaoclatlon of Governments ASSOCIAIIOH (,II o.OYEftNMEHTI

# STEPS TO DECENTRALIZATION

1. Address current bottlenecks

- Provides immediate relief and improves ground access



## - By itself, will not decentralize aviation demand 

# 2. Provide options to redistributing demand Flyaway concept, establish the patterns Redirect and focus on regional airports

- Integrate with roadway improvements in the near term 

# 3. 

# Ultimately need a long term solution

- Build on the Flyaway concept

- Need for high-speed, dependable and reliable service

- Need for airports in the region to work together

ASSQCI,U ION of GOV£A:H""f.N'fS Southern California

Association of Governments

# High Speed Rail

lalli, San Bernardino

Riverside

ASSOCI" 1 lOW 01 GOYERNIIIlE,.TS Southern Catitornia

Association of Governments

# 2030 Preferred Plan



# Economic Benefit

Preferred Plan - $18 Billion and 131,000jobs over "doing nothing" Preferred Aviation Plan Economic

Impact Variation Do Nothing Preferred Aviation Plan Economic Impact Jobs (1998 Dollars) $ 87 Billion 630,000 $105 Billion 761,000 

# For every one million passengers, there is an economic benefit of $620 Million and 4,475 Jobs;r>u:

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# SCAG UNCONSTRAINED DEMAND LAX+ONTARIO+BURBANK+SANTA ANA+SAN BERNARDINO+VICTORVILLE+PALMDALE +MARCH AFB+LONG BEACH+PALM SPRINGS SCAG REGION: 2005 - 88.3 MAP 2035 - 192.4 MAP (fuel costs) 

# 29°1'0 INTERNATIONAL 

# 2004RTP - 190 MAP in 2030 

# ANNUAL GROWTH RATE: 

# 3.9°k TOTAL SCAG + SAN DIEGO: 215.39 MAP (SAN: 22.99 MAP)

~.~ '" Southern California 

### ~~~~'i.':~~:"i

Association of Governments

# FAA TERMINAL AREA FORECAST WESTERN-PACIFIC REGION: California, Nevada, Arizona MAJOR AIRPORTS ONL

# Y
FAA ANNUAL GROWH RA TE 4.44% 

# FAA (CA, NV, AZ) 2005 - 150.2 MAP 2025 - 285.8 MAP 2025 LAX 

# -112.9 MAP 

# BCAG 2005 - 88.3 MAP 2035 - 

# 192.4 MAP

~~ '" Southern California ~~~~'i;;~"i:To~

Association of Governrnents

# 2035 CONSTRAINED SCENARIOPARAMETERS

• NO MAGLEV • LAX: Existing runway capacity - 78 MAP • BUR: Existing terminal/gate capacity - 9.4 MAP • LGB: Flight restriction of 41 flights/day SNA: Settlement Agreement - 10.8 MAP • ONT: Existing runway capacity - 28.8 MAP • SAN: Existing runway capacity - 22.9 MAP • SBD 

# & PMD: Charter, corp. 

# & commuter/short haul • MAR 

# & VCV: Cargo, charter and corporate • IPL 

# & CRQ: Corporate, charter and commuter OXR: Physical facility & fleet mix constrained • Planned ground access improvements • No Market incentives • Doubling of aircraft fuel costs

~~ Southern California ~~f.i:~"i:,o~

Assoeiatlcn of GovernmentsPRELIMINARY 

## 2035 CONSTRAINED SCENARIO

ffERATION:A/82720C 

### RADAM VERSION 9.12 (REGIONAL AIRPORT DEMAND AllOCATION MODEL) 12035 SCE CONI TOTAL PASSENGERS IN MILLION ANNUAL PASSENGERS (MAP) MAR (M\R hland Port) 0.551122 SAN BUR LAX ONT OXR SNA LGB PSP PMO SBO CRQ IPL VCV Lindgergh Field (Oxnard) (John wayne) (Palm Springs) (San Ber. hi) (Palormr) (h"periaQ (So CA Logistics) 22.897726 9.401123 78.007283 31.601221 0.720010 10.800277 3.192923 4.102234 2.572827 2.885383 1.307248 0.874722 0.674940
No Regional Maglev; Planned Ground Access San Diego Runway Capacity Constrained LAX Runway Capacity Constrained OXR, CRQ commuterssnor: haul 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 

## o 22.90

Southern California Association of Governments AS$OC •••.1IQW of GO\flEfI;NIII£,.T& SCAG REGION PX MARKET 144.8329 SCAG + SAN DIEGO PX MKTS

169.0379

78.01 31.60

10.80 0.72
= 1.31 0.87 0.67

=

# ALL PREFERRED SCENARIO PARAMETERS

SCENARIO 1. - NO MAGLEV SCENARIO 2. - REGIONAL MAGLEV TO MARCH (NO PSP STATION) 

# SCENARIO 3. - REGIONAL MAGLEV TO PSP (NO MAR STATION) 

# -LGB: Larger Aircraft, higher load factors - 41 flights/day 

# = 4.2 MAP capacity -SNA: New Settlement Agreement Constraint - 10.8 MAP -ONT: Runway capacity - 31.6 MAP -SAN: Capacity of 22.9 MAP -MAR: Joint use agreement - 2.5 MAP -SBD: System capacity - 8.7-9.4 MAP -PMD and VCV: Unconstrained -OXR and CRQ: constrained by ops -BUR: capacity - 9.4 MAP -IPL: unconstrained -LAX: 78 MAP Airport ground access improvements: Unconstrained list recent submittals from local commissions

~~ '" Southern California ~~~:~'i:,o;

Association of Governments

# Market Incentives -PMD: ground access reliability - same as other airports; Additional access routes 

# -Future air trip propensities in the Antelope Valley (PMD) increased by avg. 

# 15°k closer to San Fernando Valley. 

# -For outlying airports 100% of residents & 80% of nonresidents aware of alternative airports choices. Requires a marketing campaign, booking system upgrades 

# -Low-cost parking at PMD, SBD, MAR, VCV, CRQ, IPL, OXR -Free shuttle service from major activity centers to outlying airports

~.~ '" Southern California ~~~~~~"i::~

Association of Governments

## 2035 RTP PREFERRED SCENARIO 

## 1. NO MAGLEV
ITERATlON:P/00277122 RADAM VERSION 9.12 (REGIONAL AIRPORT DEMAND ALLOCATION MODEL) 12035 SCE P 1 

## I TOTAL PASSENGERS IN MILLION ANNUAL PASSENGERS (MAP) MAR (MAR Inland Port) 2.503372 SAN BUR LAX ONT OXR SNA LGB PSP PMD SBD CRQ IPL VCV Lindgergh Field (Oxnard) (John Wayne) (Palm Springs) (San Ber. Inl) (Palomar) (Imperial) (So CA Logistics) 22.900272 9.401265 78.006839 31.602013 1.406070 10.800245 4.200328 4.119827 6.271277 3.278352 1.501274 3.502939 2.430293
No Regional Maglev; Planned Ground Access San Diego Runway Capacity Constrained LAX Runway Capacity Constrained Fuel Cost Doubling 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 22.90 20 

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78.01 SCAG REGION PX MARKI 155.0194 SCAG + SAN DIEGO PX M

179.4210

31.60

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# r==J 3.28 

# r==J 2.43



# r===J 1.41 1.50 

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Southern Calttornla Association of Governments ASSOCI.llO~

(lJ GOV"ttNIlIIE9IlTS

## 2035 PREFERRED SCENARIO 

# 2. MAGLEV - MAR

PRELIMINARY ITERATION: P/032833B RADAM VERSION 9.12 (REGIONAL AIRPORT DEMAND AllOCATION MODEL) 

# I 2035 SCE P MAR 

# I TOTAL PASSENGERS IN MILLION ANNUAL PASSENGERS (MAP) MAR MAGLEV TO MAR (MAR Inla1d Pat) 2.502340 SAN BUR LAX ONT OXR SNA LGB PSP PMO SBO CRQ IPL VCV Lindgergh Field (Oxnard) (John Wayne) (Palm Springs) (San Ber. Int) (Palomar) (Imperial) (So CA Logistics) 22.900148 9.401120 78.006439 31.601028 2.204785 10.800187 4.200273 4.102273 12.887205 9.415432 2.488373 3.533112 4.002864 Regional Maglev to MAR; No Maglev to PSP; Planned Ground Access San Diego Runway Capacity Constrained LAX Runway Capacity Constrained Fuel Cost Doubling March Inland Port caped at 2.5 MAP 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 

## o SCAG REGION PX MARKI 17Q4S47 SCAG+SAN DIEGO PX MI'

195.5432

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