Employment Outlook and

Changing Occupational Struture

in Electronics Manufacturing

Bulletin No. 1363

UN ITED STA TES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

W . W i ll a rd W i rtz, Sec re ta ry

BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Ewan Clague, Commissioner

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ERRATA SHEET

Employment Outlook and Changing Occupational Structure

Manufacturing, bulletin No« 1353, U.S* Department

Rureau of Labor Statistics

in Electronic

of Labor,

Page 1, column 1, line 7

delete 1950 and insert 1951

Pag* 7, column 2, last paragraph

Transpose to page 5, column 1, immediately before section beginning

"Employment Size of Electronics Establishments"

P~ge 4 7 , -footnote 90, last line

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Employment Outlook and 

Changing Occupational Structure 

in Electronics Manufacturing

Bulletin No. 1363

October 1963

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

W. Willard W irtz, Secretary

BUREAU O F LABOR STA TISTIC S

Ewan Clague, Commissioner

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PREFACE

Few industries have shown such dynamic growth and change in our generation as electronics manufacturing. Originally consisting of only the manufacture of radios and, later, television sets, the electronics industry has become indispensable to the country’s military and space programs and the production of many industrial and commercial products, as well as in the home. Continued 

rapid change in the nature of the industry is expected under the impact of an electronic technology which is broadening in scope and growing in complexity.

With the realization that electronics manufacturing has become one of the Nation's basic and 

vitally important industries has come an increased interest in information about the size, composition, and growth of the electronics manufacturing work force. Accurate manpower information for the industry, however, is not readily available. Employment estimates are rough approxima­ tions since employment data collected on a national basis are so classified that employment in 

electronics cannot be clearly separated from employment in other activities. Future manpower requirements are difficult to project because of the rapidity of the industry's growth and change.

This study was made not only to help fill the gaps in manpower information for the industry but also to show the approach used for doing this. It provides estimates of employment in electronics manufacturing for the period 1958-61 and projections of manpower requirements by 1970, classi­ fied by major product category and with some detail as to occupation and sex. Hie study also describes the methodology and sources used for developing these estimates and projections. It is hoped that this information m&y be helpful for such purposes as: (1) Planning educational and training programs adequate to meet anticipated manpower and skill needs of the industry; (2) pro* viding vocational counseling and placement for young men and women seeking career opportuni­ ties; (3) developing employment estimates and projections for detailed segments of the industry, specific localities of the country, or years other than those covered here; and (4) generally im­ proving employment and occupational statistics and techniques for projection in the electronics manufacturing field.

Although some material was obtained through talks and interviews with industry, labor, and 

Federal Government officials engaged in electronics work, most of the information for the study came from secondary sources, such as periodicals, books, special reports and studies, and newspaper articles. "Data available from the Electronic Industries Association, a major trade association in this field, were especially helpful, as were those from Federal legislative com­ mittees and Federal agencies. In a few instances data used in the study were subsequently 

slightly revised by the issuing organization, but too late for incorporation here. This was the case with some of die statistics of the Electronic Industries Association.

This bulletin was prepared by Russell B. Flanders under the supervision of Joseph F. Fulton, who also participated in the writing. The study was directed by Bernard Yabroff in the Bureau's Division of Manpower and Occupational Outlook, under the general direction of Harold Goldstein, 

Assistant Commissioner for Manpower and Employment Statistics.

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CONTENTS

Summary of Findings

Chapter 1. Scope and Nature of Electronics Manufacturing Product classification by major category, Product classification by SIC code ,•••••„< Nature of electronics manufacturing Location of employment in electronics manufacturing 

Employment size of electronics establishments

*•.*****•*•*•**••*•••*.•.•*•«•*..••**•*••«•

I.******.******...*.*********.....*

I***.**.***.**.**..**.*.*..*.*.*.......

Chapter 2. Historical Growth of Electronics Manufacturing.,

Trends in major product categories, 1950-61,

Military and 5pace products *******•••••••*•***•••••••••••••••••••••••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Industrial and commercial products............,..........................*..*..,.*....*.*,....*,***,*,*

Consumer products...... Electronic components

Chapter 3. Estimates and Projections of Electronics Manufacturing Employment.............

Employment and shipments estimates and projections 

Military and space products Industrial and commercial products Consumer products 

Components.,

*•••••**• •** ••.•••*••*..*••

Methodology for deriving employment estimates and projections ,

Chapter 4. Occupational Trends and Outlook in Electronics Manufacturing .. Nonproduction and production workers Mechanization in end-equipment manufacturing

Mechanization in components manufacturing ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••*.••••. Occupational distributions and trends Women workers

Appendix A. Methodology ................................................................................................................ Derivation of employment estimates and projections, by major electronic product category ...... Derivation of electronics shipments estimates and projections •••••••••••••••••••••••*••••..••• Conversion of shipments from current to constant dollar estimates •••••••••••••••.•••*•••

Projections of constant dollar shipments Derivation of projection for military and space electronics shipments ••*•••••••••••••* Derivation of projection for industrial and commercial electronics shipments..,.... 

Derivation of projection for consumer electronics shipments •••••••••.••••••••••••••••••*

Derivation of projection for electronic components shipments **•••••*•*••«•****..•.••••• Derivation of electronics shipments-per-employee estimates and projections Distribution of employment estimates and projections between nonproduction and produc­ tion workers and between men and women workers, by major electronic product category

Appendix B. Selected Bibliography

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CONTENTS - -Continued

TEXT TABLES

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Employment in electronics manufacturing. by region and State, January 1958 and JanEmployment in military-space and industrial-commercial electronics manufacturing, 

by region and State, January 1958 and January 1961........................................... Employment in consumer electronics manufacturing, by region and State, January

Employment in electronic components manufacturing, by region and State, January 1958 and January 1961.................................................................................................. .

Employment size of establishments in electronics manufacturing, by SIC industry.

Value of electronics shipments, by major product category, 1950-62.............................

Department of Defense expenditures for military functions, fiscal years, 1954-63 ..... Value of industrial and commercial electronics shipments, 1956-61................................

Quantity and value of television and radio production, by type of unit, 1950-61........... Quantity and value of phonograph sales, by type of unit, and value of sales of phonograph records, 1 9 5 0 -6 1 ................................................................................. Value of electronic component shipments, by use as original equipment or replacement 

parts, 19 50 -6 1............................................................................................. Value of electronic component shipments, by type of component, 1950-61................. Employment in electronics manufacturing, by product category, estimates for 1958-61 

and projections for 1970 Value of electronics shipments in constant 1960 dollars, by product category, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970 ••••••••••••••••••••*•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Nonproduction and production workers in electronics manufacturing, by product category, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••*•••••••••••• Illustrative occupational distributions in electronics manufacturing, military-space 

and consumer products, mid-1962M9(MMMWC(«««MMwM«*«MMMMN*MMM*«*MM*M*MM«f*MM Women workers as percent of all workers in electronics manufacturing occupations, by major product category, mid-1962 Men and women workers in electronics manufacturing, byproduct category, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970.

APPENDIX TABLES

A -l. Value of electronics shipments, by major product category, estimates for 1950-62 in constant 1960 dollars and current dollars, and projections for 1970 in constant 1960

A-2. Selected data used to develop 1970 projection for military and space electronics shipA-3. Selected data used to develop 1970 projections for industrial-commercial and consumer electronics shipments ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••a

A-4, Electronics shipments and shipments per employee (in constant 1960 dollars), and 

employment, by product category, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970...

A-5. Distribution of employment between nonproduction and production workers, and women 

workers, in selected electronics manufacturing industries, 1958-61 ••••••••••••••••••••• A-6. Nonproduction and production workers, and women workers, in electronics manufacturing, by product category, 3 projections for 1970

CHARTS

1. Employment in electronics manufacturing.

Estimates 1958-61, and projections, 1970............. 2. Employment increases in electronics manufacturing. Estimates 1958-61, and projections, 1961-70........

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Employment Outlook and Changing Occupational Structure

in Electronics Manufacturing

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

The e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g industry- in the U nited S tates h as grow n w ith ex ­ tre m e ra p id ity in re c e n t y e a rs , and is e x p ected to show s u b sta n tia l fu rth e r grow th d u rin g the r e s t of the 19 6 0 's. E m p loym ent in the in d u s try w as e stim a te d at 778,000 w o rk e rs in I9 6 0 --m o re th an th re e tim e s w hat it w as in 1950--an d is ex p ected to re a c h n e a rly 1.1 m illio n by 1970. Shipm ents of e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts w ere e stim a te d a t $10.8 b illio n in 1961 and a re p ro je c te d to n e a rly $20 b illio n by 1970 (co n stan t I960 d o lla rs ).

T hese e s tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s, d e v e l­ oped by the B u reau of L ab o r S ta tis tic s to h elp p ro v id e m anpow er in fo rm a tio n fo r e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g (defined to in ­ clude r e s e a r c h and d ev elopm ent (R&D) a s w ell a s pro d u ctio n ), do not c o v er e le c ­ tro n ic s a c tiv ity in the F e d e ra l G o vernm ent, u n iv e rs itie s , and n o n p ro fit r e s e a r c h c e n ­ t e r s , in w hich at le a s t 55,000 w o rk e rs a re e s tim a te d to have b een engaged in la te I960 (ch iefly in re s e a r c h , d ev elopm ent, and the n eg o tiatio n and a d m in istra tio n of co n ­ tr a c ts ) . The p ro je c tio n s should be view ed only a s in d icatio n s of g e n e ra l m ag n itu d es and d ire c tio n s of change. Some of the h is ­ to r ic a l s e r ie s upon w hich th ey a re b a se d do not extend back m any y e a rs , and even if th e y did would not n e c e s s a r ily be too h e lp ­ ful sin ce the p a st is an u n c e rta in guide to the fu tu re in the ra p id ly changing e le c ­ tro n ic s fie ld . The p ro je c tio n s, m o re o v e r, a r e h eav ily in fluenced by the m a jo r a s ­ su m p tio n s u sed in d eriv in g th em .

The grow th ra te p ro je c te d fo r e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g em ploym ent d uring the 1960's is ex p ected to v a ry am ong the m a jo r c a te g o rie s into w hich e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts a r e g e n e ra lly c la s s ifie d . In 1961, em p lo y ­ m en t w as d istrib u te d am ong th e se c a te ­ g o rie s in the follow ing e stim a te d p ro p o r­ tio n s: 36 p e rc e n t in the m an u factu re of m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic equipm ent, a n o th e r 36 p e rc e n t in the m an u factu re of

e le c tro n ic co m p o n en ts, 16 p e rc e n t in in d u s­ tr ia l and c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic equ ip m en t, and 11 p e rc e n t in c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts. By 1970, th e se p ro p o rtio n s a re ex p ected to be about 42 p e rc e n t in m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic equipm ent, 30 p e rc e n t in e le c tro n ic co m p o n en ts, 17 p e rc e n t in in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic eq u ip ­ m ent, and 11 p e rc e n t in c o n su m e r e le c ­ tro n ic p ro d u c ts.

The m ilita ry and space e le c tro n ic eq u ip ­ m ent c a te g o ry is ex p ected to expand ra p id ly , b e c a u se of such m a jo r in flu en ces as the grow ing e le c tro n ic so p h istic a tio n and c o m ­ p le x ity of s p a c e c ra ft, m is s ile s , a ir c r a f t, and o th e r d efen se ite m s ; the n a tio n a l effo rt to co m p lete a m anned lu n a r ex p ed itio n b e fo re 1970; and the in c re a s in g size and im p o rta n c e of the m ilita ry sp ace p ro g ra m . The re la tiv e s h a re of e le c tro n ic s em p lo y ­ m ent devoted to com ponents m an u factu rin g is ex p ected to fa ll durin g the re m a in d e r of the 1 9 6 0 's. One re a s o n is th a t sh ip m en ts p e r w o rk e r in com ponents m an u factu re is ex p ected to r is e f a s te r th a n the in d u stry a v e ra g e . A n o th er is th a t the grow ing u se of tr a n s is to r s and o th e r s o lid -s ta te com po­ n en ts is ex p ected to in c re a s e the re lia b ility , length of life , and v e r s a tility of com ponents and th e re fo re d e c re a s e the ra te of com po­ nent re p la c e m e n t and the n u m b er of c o m ­ ponents needed to do a given job.

E m ploym ent in the m an u factu re of in d u s­ t r ia l and c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts is ex p ected to in c re a s e du rin g the re m a in d e r of the 1960's at a slig h tly f a s te r ra te than em ploym ent in e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g a s a w hole, a s the dem and fo r th e se p ro d ­ u c ts, e sp e c ia lly fo r c o m p u te rs and data 

p ro c e ssin g eq u ip m en t, co n tin u es to r is e . In the c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic s field , em p lo y ­ m ent in 1970 is p ro je c te d a t ro u g h ly the 

sam e proportion of to ta l e le c tro n ic s em ploym ent as in 1961. T e le v isio n s e ts , ra d io s, and p honographs a re ex p ected to co n ­ tinue a s the p rin c ip a l c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic

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ite m s d uring the decade of the 1960's, although m any new c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts w ill becom e av ailab le c o m m e r­ c ia lly .

P ro d u c tio n p r o c e s s e s v a ry w idely am ong the m a jo r e le c tro n ic p ro d u ct c a te g o rie s , and th e se d iffe re n c e s a re re fle c te d in d if­ fe re n c e s in o ccu p atio n al d is trib u tio n s . The m a n u fa c tu re of m ilita ry and space p ro d u c ts, and to a l e s s e r ex ten t of in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l p ro d u c ts, involves a g re a t deal of r e s e a r c h and d evelopm ent w ork and low - volum e p ro d u c tio n of c u sto m -m a d e end p ro d u c ts and re q u ire s re la tiv e ly la rg e p r o ­ p o rtio n s of p ro fe s s io n a l and o th e r highly tra in e d w o rk e rs . In c o m p a riso n , the m anu­ fa c tu re of c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts and com po­ n e n ts ten d s to be an a s s e m b ly -lin e , m a s s - p ro d u c tio n o p e ra tio n involving re la tiv e ly la rg e p ro p o rtio n s of s e m isk ille d m an u al w o rk e rs . Illu s tra tiv e o ccu p atio n al d i s t r i ­ b u tio n s c o lle c te d fo r th is study in d icate th a t in m id - 1962 n o nproduction w o r k e r s - - e n g in e e rs and o th e r te c h n ic a l w o rk e rs , a d m in is tra tiv e and ex ecu tiv e p e rso n n e l, and c le r ic a l and sten o g rap h ic e m p lo y e e s --w e re in th e m a jo rity (60 p e rc e n t of the w ork fo rc e ) in m ilita ry and space e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g but in the m in o rity (30 p e r ­ c e n t of the w ork fo rc e ) in c o n su m e r e le c ­ tr o n ic s m an u factu rin g . In m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic s , 33 p e rc e n t of the w ork fo rc e w ere e n g in e e rs and o th e r te c h n ic a l w o rk e rs and 27 p e rc e n t w ere s e m isk ille d and u n sk ille d w o rk e rs , w hile in the con­ su m e r p ro d u c ts fie ld , 11 p e rc e n t w ere e n g in e e rs and o th e r te c h n ic a l w o rk e rs and 63 p e rc e n t w ere s e m isk ille d and u n sk ille d w o rk e rs .

N onproduction w o rk e rs have b een in ­ c re a s in g ra p id ly as a p ro p o rtio n of to ta l e le c tro n ic s em p lo y m en t. They re p re s e n te d ro u g h ly o n e -fifth of such em ploym ent in

1950 and an e stim a te d tw o -fifth s in 1961, and a re ex p ected to acco u n t fo r n e a rly h alf by 1970. The grow ing im p o rta n c e of R&D w ork, and of low -v o lu m e p ro d u c tio n of ite m s m ade to o r d e r on a c o n tra c t b a s is , in c re a s e s the need fo r e n g in e e rs and o th e r te c h n ic a l p e rso n n e l and d e c re a s e s the need fo r s e m i­ sk ille d and u n sk ille d p ro d u c tio n w o rk e rs . F o r ex am p le, the n u m b er of e n g in e e rs and s c ie n tis ts in e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g in ­ c r e a s e d n e a rly tenfold b etw een 1951 and 1 9 6 0 --fro m an e s tim a te d 13,000 to an e s tim a te d 128 ,0 0 0 --c o m p a re d w ith a th r e e ­ fold in c re a s e in to ta l e le c tro n ic s em p lo y ­ m ent o v e r a p p ro x im a te ly the sam e p e rio d . A n o th er fa c to r influencing ex p an sio n in the re la tiv e siz e of the n o n p ro d u ctio n w ork fo rc e is the co n tin u al in tro d u c tio n of te c h ­ n o lo g ical ch an g es, w hich te n d s to d e c re a s e the n u m b er of p ro d u c tio n w o rk e rs needed to p ro d u ce a given output. F in a lly , the grow th of re c o rd k e ep in g and co m m u n icatio n re q u ire m e n ts in m o d ern b u s in e s s h as c a u se d an in c re a s e in n u m b e rs of c le r ic a l and o th e r office w o rk e rs in e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g , d e sp ite the in tro d u c tio n and expanded u se of im p ro v ed office equipm ent, e s p e c ia lly fo r d ata p ro c e s s in g .

W omen r e p r e s e n t a la rg e but d eclin in g p ro p o rtio n of the to ta l w ork fo rc e in e le c ­ tro n ic s m a n u factu rin g . B ecau se th e y a re em ployed m ain ly a s p ro d u c tio n w o rk e rs in m a ss-v o lu m e o p e ra tio n s, such as the m anu­ fa c tu re of c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts and s e m i­ c o n d u c to rs, tu b e s, and o th e r co m p o n en ts, th e ir p ro p o rtio n of the to ta l e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g w ork fo rc e h as b een d e­ c re a s in g and is ex p ected to continue to d e c re a s e , fro m an e s tim a te d 50 p e rc e n t in 1950 to 41 p e rc e n t in 1961 and a p ro je c te d 39 p e rc e n t by 1970. In te r m s of n u m b e rs, h o w ev er, th e ir em p lo y m en t is ex p ected to grow , fro m an e s tim a te d 320,000 in 1961 to about 423,000 by 1970.

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CHAPTER 1. SCOPE AND NATURE OF ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING

The e le c tro n ic s in d u s try is engaged in "th a t b ra n c h of scien ce and technology w hich d e a ls w ith the study and ap p lic a tio n o f tech n iq u es to d ire c t and c o n tro l the co n ­ d u ctio n of e le c tric ity in a g as, v acuum , a liq u id , o r a s o lid -s ta te m a te ria l. E le c tro n tu b e s and se m ic o n d u c to rs a re com bined w ith r e s is to r s , c a p a c ito rs , tr a n s f o r m e r s and s im ila r com ponents in eq u ip m en ts w hich d e te c t, m e a s u re , re c o rd , com pute and com m u n icate in fo rm a tio n ." 1 The d is ­ tin g u ish in g fe a tu re of e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts a s opposed to p u re ly e le c tr ic a l ones is th a t, although e le c tr ic ity flow s th ro u g h the c ir c u itr y of both, e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts a lso in clude tu b es and se m ic o n d u c to rs w hich c a n d isc h a rg e , d ire c t, c o n tro l, o r o th e r­ w ise influence the flow of th at e le c tric ity .

The E le c tro n ic In d u s trie s A sso c ia tio n , a m a jo r tra d e a s s o c ia tio n in the e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g field , e s tim a te s th at about 2,000 ty p es of e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts a re m a n u factu red in th is c o u n try .* They a re e x tre m e ly v a rie d in end u se , function, v a lu e, siz e , and fo rm . T hey ran g e fro m " m ic ro sc o p ic com ponents le s s th an a th o u ­ san d th of an in ch in d ia m e te r to giant c o m ­ puting and c o n tro l s y s te m s ." 5

PRODUCTION CLASSIFICATION BY MAJOR CATEGORY

One fre q u e n tly u se d c la s s ific a tio n d iv id es e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts into fo u r m a jo r c a te ­ g o rie s : (1) M ilita ry and sp ace p ro d u c ts, (2) in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l p ro d u c ts, (3) c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts, and (4) co m p o n en ts. The f i r s t th re e c a te g o rie s re p re s e n t end p ro d u c ts, w hile the fo u rth c o n s is ts of the p a r ts and a c c e s s o r ie s w hich go into end p ro d u c ts.

M ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts a r e v ita l p a r ts of m is s ile s , sp a c e c ra ft, a i r ­ c ra ft, tan k s, sh ip s, and o th e r ite m s u se d in n a tio n a l d efen se and sp ace p ro g ra m s . R ep1 Electronic Industries Association, Electronic Industries 1962 

Yearbook. Washington, D.C., September 1962, p. 1.

* Ibid.

9 Ibid.

re s e n ta tiv e ex am p les of th e se p ro d u c ts include guidance and checkout sy s te m s ; te le m e te rin g , ground tra c k in g , and su p p o rt eq u ip m en t; ra d a r , so n a r, in fra re d , and o th e r d ete c tio n s y ste m s and d e v ic e s; g y ro ­ sco p es and o th e r n av ig atio n al eq uipm ent; fire c o n tro l d e v ic e s; and h ig h -sp e e d c o m ­ m u n icatio n equ ip m en t. R e p re se n ta tiv e in ­ d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts include c o m p u te rs; te stin g and m e a su rin g in s tru m e n ts ; in d u s tria l c o n tro l and p ro c ­ e ssin g equipm ent; e le c tro n ic in s tru m e n ts fo r n u c le a r w ork, su ch a s re a c to r sen sin g c o n tro ls and ra d ia tio n d e te c tio n d e v ic e s; te le v is io n and ra d io b ro a d c a stin g eq u ip ­ m ent; m icro w av e d ev ic e s; m e d ic a l and th e ra p e u tic equipm ent, su ch a s X -ra y s y s ­ te m s and d ia th e rm y u n its; and n a v ig a tio n a l in s tru m e n ts fo r c iv il and p riv a te a ir c r a f t, sh ip s, e tc .

C o n su m er p ro d u c ts include som e of the m o st fa m ilia r k in d s of e le c tro n ic equipm ent and a lso som e of the n ew est. E x am p les a re te le v is io n and ra d io re c e iv in g s e ts ; phono­ g ra p h s, high fid e lity and ste reo p h o n ic sound equipm ent; tape r e c o r d e r s ; h e a rin g a id s; e le c tro n ic ovens; and hom e in te rc o m m u n i­ ca tio n s y s te m s . C om ponents a re u su a lly c la s s ifie d in th re e b ro a d g ro u p s: tu b e s, se m ic o n d u c to rs, and "o th e r co m p o n e n ts." T ubes in clude re c e iv in g , p ow er, te le v isio n p ic tu re , and v a rio u s s p e c ia l-p u rp o s e tu b e s. P rin c ip a l se m ic o n d u c to r d e v ic e s a re tr a n ­ s is to r s , d io d es, and r e c tif ie r s . "O th er co m ­ p o n en ts" include su ch ite m s as c a p a c ito rs , r e s is to r s , tr a n s f o r m e r s , r e la y s , co n n ec­ to r s , and sw itc h e s. F o r som e p u rp o s e s , com ponents a re c la s s ifie d in a n o th e r way, a s e ith e r (1) o rig in a l equipm ent o r (2) r e ­ p la c e m e n t p a r ts .

B ecau se the c la s s ific a tio n of e le c tro n ic end equipm ent a s m ilita ry -s p a c e , in d u s­ tr ia l- c o m m e r c ia l, o r c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts is in te rm s of in ten d ed u se , the sam e type of ite m m ay be c la s s ifie d in m o re th an one w ay if it c an be m an u factu red fo r m o re th an one kind of end u s e . A ra d io r e c e iv e r, fo r in sta n c e , would be c la s s ifie d in the m ilita ry and sp ace c a te g o ry if p ro d u ced fo r

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u se in a m ilita ry a ir c r a f t, in the in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l s e c to r if intended fo r u se in a c iv il a ir c r a f t, and in the c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts group if sold fo r u se in a p riv a te h o m e. A lthough c o m p u te rs a re u su a lly d is ­ c u s s e d in th is re p o rt in te r m s of the in ­ d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l group, m any c o m ­ p u te rs a re m a n u factu red fo r in s ta lla tio n in o r ground su p p o rt of m ilita ry o r sp ace c ra f t. N avigational d ev ices m ay be m ade fo r m ilita ry and sp ace c ra ft, fo r c o m m e r­ c ia l sh ip s and p la n e s, o r even fo r c o n su m e r u se in p le a s u re b o atin g . M any o th e r e x ­ a m p les could be cite d of e le c tro n ic ite m s w hich can be m an u factu red fo r m o re th an one kind of end u s e .

P ro d u c t sp e c ific a tio n s and p e rfo rm a n c e re q u ire m e n ts v a ry w ith intended end u se . In g e n e ra l, m ilita ry and space e le c tro n ic equ ip m en t and th e ir com ponents have the m o st rig o ro u s re q u ire m e n ts fo r re lia b ility , ru g g e d n e ss, q u ality c o n tro l, a c c u ra c y , and o th e r c h a r a c te r is tic s . C o n su m er p ro d u c ts and th e ir co m ponents g e n e ra lly have the le a s t rig o ro u s sta n d a rd s , w hile p e rfo rm ­ ance to le ra n c e s fo r in d u s tria l and c o m ­ m e rc ia l equipm ent and th e ir com ponents u su a lly fa ll b etw een th e se two lim its .

PRODUCT CLASSIFICATION BY SIC CODE

In its co m p ilatio n of s ta tis tic s on sh ip ­ m e n ts, em ploym ent, e a rn in g s, and o th e r econom ic v a ria b le s , the F e d e ra l G o v ern ­ m ent u s e s the S tan d ard In d u stria l C la s s i­ fic a tio n (SIC) sy ste m , a code w hich c o v e rs a ll econom ic a c tiv ity .4 The data c o lle c te d by the F e d e ra l G o v ern m en t re p re s e n t p ro b ab ly the m ain body of q u an titativ e in fo rm a tio n about the e le c tro n ic s in d u stry .

The code does not, h ow ever, re a d ily id en tify a ll e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g , w hich is s c a tte re d th ro u g h at le a s t two dozen of the m o re th an 400 SIC 4 - dig it in d u s trie s u sed to co v e r m an u factu rin g

4 The SIC code is contained in the Standard Industrial Classification Manual, 1957 edition, and the 1958 Supplement to that 

edition, both prepared by the Executive Office of the President,

Bureau of the Budget. The SIC code was developed, according to 

p. 1 of the Manual, "for purposes of facilitating the collection, 

tabulation, presentation, and analysis of data relating to establishments; and for promoting uniformity and comparability in the presentation of statistical data collected by various agencies of the United States Government, State agencies, trade associations, and private research organizations."

a c tiv ity .5 A cco rd in g to the 1958 U .S. C en su s of M a n u fa c tu re s-- th e m o st re c e n t co m p lete count of m an u factu rin g a c tiv ity - - a s m any as 20 SIC 4 - d ig it in d u s trie s (lis te d in appendix A) each re p o rte d at le a s t $25 m illio n w orth of e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts in th a t y e a r, and a few ad d itio n al 4 - dig it in d u s trie s each re p o rte d le s s th an $25 m illio n in e le c ­ tro n ic s sh ip m e n ts. D eveloping a c c u ra te e s tim a te s of e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts and em p loym ent on the b a s is of the SIC code is a co m p lic a te d p ro c e d u re ; one of the p u r ­ p o se s of th is r e p o rt is to show an ap p ro ach fo r doing th is .

NATURE OF ELECTRONICS MANUFAC­ TURING

M anufacturing p ro c e s s e s in the e le c ­ tro n ic s in d u s try a re n e c e s s a r ily e x tre m e ly v a rie d , in view of the w ide ran g e of e le c ­ tro n ic p ro d u c ts and the g re a t d iffe re n c e s in th e ir fu n ctio n s and p u rp o s e s . The m o st e x tre m e d iffe re n c e s a re found in a c o m ­ p a ris o n betw een the fie ld s of m ilita ry -s p a c e and c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic s . In d u s tria l-c o m ­ m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic s p ro d u ctio n g e n e ra lly fa lls b etw een th e se e x tre m e s , and com po­ n en ts m an u factu rin g ten d s to v a ry acco rd in g to the type of end equipm ent fo r w hich the com ponents a re m ade.

P e rfo rm a n c e re q u ire m e n ts fo r m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic ite m s a re e x tre m e ly rig o ro u s . H um an life m ay depend upon the re lia b ility , a c c u ra c y , and ru g g e d n e ss of th e se ite m s ; in the c a se of unm anned s p a c e c ra ft, a flight m ay be a b o rte d o r re n d e re d o th e rw ise u n su c c e ssfu l b e c a u se of the m alfu n ctio n of an e le c tro n ic sy ste m o r p a r t. R e q u ire m e n ts fo r m ilita ry and sp ace ite m s a re not only se v e re but a lso c o n sta n tly changing to m eet the n eed s of an expanding sp ace p ro g ra m and changing n a tio n a l d efen se p a tte rn s . The ra te of ob­ so le sc e n c e is high. E v er s m a lle r d ev ices and e v e r lo w er pow er re q u ire m e n ts a re sought, to o v erco m e lim ita tio n s o. b o o ste r p ow er, fu el, and o th e r e n e rg y s o u rc e s . C o n su m er p ro d u c ts, on the o th e r hand, a re g e n e ra lly m uch m o re sta n d a rd iz e d and p e r ­ fo rm an ce re q u ire m e n ts sta n d a rd s a re not n e a rly so rig o ro u s .

5 The more than 400 manufacturing industries consist of SIC 

industries 1911 to 3999. It should be noted that this study ex­ cludes electronics activity outside these manufacturing industries, such as that in the Armed Forces, the Federal Government 

(SIC 91), nonprofit research centers and universities (SIC 8291), engineering service establishments (SIC 8911), and commercial 

research laboratories (SIC 7391).

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R e s e a rc h and d evelopm ent w ork is a m uch la r g e r p a rt of the m an u factu re of m ilita ry -s p a c e e le c tro n ic s th an in co n ­ s u m e r e le c tro n ic s ,6 M ilita ry and space ite m s a re com m only hand m ade in r e la ­ tiv e ly sm a ll n u m b e rs on a c o n tra c t b a s is , w hile co n su m er ite m s a re g e n e ra lly m a ss p ro d u ced , using au to m ated and m ech an ized p r o c e s s e s , fo r m a ss d istrib u tio n . The p r o ­ p o rtio n of e n g in e e rs, s c ie n tis ts , te c h n ic ia n s, and sk ille d c ra fts m e n in the w ork fo rc e is re la tiv e ly high in m ilita ry -s p a c e e le c tro n ic s p ro d u c tio n and re la tiv e ly low in the co n ­ s u m e r p ro d u c ts fie ld . C o rre sp o n d in g ly , the p ro p o rtio n of se m isk ille d and u n sk ille d a s s e m b ly -lin e p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs is c o m ­ p a ra tiv e ly low in m ilita ry - space e le c tro n ic s and high in c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic s . The p r o ­ p o rtio n of w om en w o rk e rs , who tend to be c o n c e n tra te d in the s e m isk ille d and u n sk ille d p ro d u c tio n jo b s, is g e n e ra lly lo w er in m ilita ry - space e le c tro n ic s th an in c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic s .

A ll e le c tro n ic s e sta b lis h m e n ts , r e g a r d ­ le s s of p ro d u ct c a te g o ry , em ploy a d m in is­ tr a tiv e , ex ecu tiv e, c le r ic a l, and ste n o ­ g ra p h ic workers, and m any em ploy e n g in e e rs , s c ie n tis ts , and te c h n ic ia n s fo r v a rio u s fu n ctio n s, m ain ly R&D w ork. The re la tiv e n u m e ric a l im p o rta n c e of R&D w o rk e rs v a rie s c o n sid e ra b ly w ith the type of p ro d u c t m ad e. P ro d u c tio n w o rk e rs in the ty p ic a l e le c tro n ic s p lan t include a s s e m b le rs who u se sm a ll hand to o ls, so ld e rin g iro n s , lig h t w elding d e v ic e s, d ia g ra m s, and m odels to put to g e th e r p a r ts , c ir c u its , and sub- a s s e m b lie s ; te s te r s and in s p e c to rs who ch eck , v isu a lly o r w ith in s tru m e n ts , the p ro d u c ts being m an u factu red th ro u g h e v e ry stag e of th e ir p ro d u ctio n ; and p ro c e ssin g , fa b ric a tin g , and m achining w o rk e rs , such a s s p ra y and dip p a in te rs , oven te n d e rs , c o il w in d e rs, e le c tro p la te rs , a n o d iz e rs, silk s c re e n o p e ra to rs , and m achine tool o p e r a to r s . Skilled m ain ten an ce c ra fts m e n a r e re sp o n sib le fo r the c a re of p lan t and 

eq u ip m en t.

LOCATION OF EMPLOYMENT IN ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING

E le c tro n ic s e s ta b lish m e n ts w hich a re h e a v ily engaged in R&D w ork and em ploy la rg e n u m b ers of e n g in e e rs, te c h n ic ia n s, and highly sk illed c r a fts m e n --s u c h as m any

6 Manufacturing, as used throughout this report, includes

research and development work as well as production.

p lan ts in m ilita ry -s p a c e and in d u s tria l- c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic s --fre q u e n tly lo c a te in m e tro p o lita n a r e a s . C itie s a re m o re lik e ly to a ttr a c t the tra in e d p e rso n n e l needed in R&D w ork, e s p e c ia lly if the c itie s p o s s e s s u n iv e rs ity fa c ilitie s fo r the continued ed u ­ catio n of p ro fe s sio n al and te c h n ic a l w o rk e r s . On the o th e r hand, e le c tro n ic s e s ta b lis h ­ m en ts w hich a re p r im a r ily engaged in la rg e -v o lu m e p ro d u c tio n o p e ra tio n s --s u c h a s p la n ts m an u factu rin g re la tiv e ly sta n d ­ a rd iz e d components and c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts --fre q u e n tly lo cate in s m a ll tow ns o r r u r a l a r e a s , w h ere s e m isk ille d and u n ­ sk ille d w o rk e rs a re g e n e ra lly a v ailab le in la rg e n u m b e rs. Shipping c o s ts a re not an e sp e c ia lly m a jo r c o n sid e ra tio n sin ce p ro d ­ u c ts tend to be sm a ll and lig h t in w eight re la tiv e to th e ir v alu e.

Some in fo rm a tio n on lo c a tio n of e le c ­ tro n ic s em p lo y m en t is a v ailab le by S tate fro m u n published d ata c o lle c te d by the B u reau of E m ploym ent S e c u rity (B E S ),U .S . D ep artm en t of L ab o r (tab les 1 to 4). T hese u n published S tate d ata c o v e r e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g em p lo y m en t in only the seven SIC 4 - dig it in d u s trie s engaged p r im a r ily in such m an u factu rin g . In both 1961 and 1958, th e se sev en in d u s trie s accounted fo r about th re e -fo u rth s of the e stim a te d e m ­ ploym ent in the m a n u factu re of e le c tro n ic s p ro d u c ts .7

M ore th an 3 of e v e ry 10 w o rk e rs in e le c ­ tro n ic s m an u factu rin g w ere lo c a te d in the M iddle A tlan tic S tates in J a n u a ry 1961 (table 1). M ore th an 2 of e v e ry 10 w ere lo c a te d in the P a c ific S ta te s, and n e a rly the sam e p ro p o rtio n w ere em ployed in the E a s t N o rth C e n tra l S ta te s. New E ngland had the fo u rth la r g e s t group of e le c tro n ic s w o rk e rs , w ith 12 p e rc e n t of the in d u stry to ta l. T hese fo u r m a jo r re g io n s to g e th e r accounted fo r m o re th an fo u r-fifth s of the e n tire e le c tro n ic s w ork fo rc e in 1961; the th re e contiguous re g io n s--M id d le A tlan tic, E a st N o rth C e n tra l, and New E n g la n d -- acco u n ted fo r m o re th an th r e e -fifth s .

C a lifo rn ia had the la r g e s t c o n c e n tra tio n of e le c tro n ic s w o rk e rs in both 1961 and

7 Total electronics employment was 777,700 in 1961 and 609,800 

in 1958, according to the estimates developed for this report. 

(See table 13.) The unpublished BES employment data are only 

approximately comparable with the estimates in table 13, since 

the latter figures relate to electronics employment only, while the BES figures cover all employment—nonelectronic as well 

as electronic--in industries primarily electronic.

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1958 (table 1). O th er S tates w ith heavy em ploym ent c o n c e n tra tio n s, lis te d in d e ­ c re a s in g o rd e r a s of 1961, w ere New Y ork, Illin o is, New J e r s e y , P e n n sy lv an ia, M a ssa ­ c h u s e tts , and Indiana. T hese w ere the only S ta te s w ith a s m uch a s 5 p e rc e n t of to ta l e le c tro n ic s em p lo y m en t in e ith e r 1961 o r 1958. Of th e se lead in g S ta te s, C a lifo rn ia had a la rg e in c re a s e in its sh a re of to ta l e le c tro n ic s em ploym ent betw een 1958 and 1961, w hile the o th e rs , ex cep t P en n sy lv a n ia , had d e c re a s e s .

The re g io n a l d is trib u tio n of e le c tro n ic s w o rk e rs v a r ie s c o n sid e ra b ly by m a jo r in ­ d u s try seg m en t. T his fa c t is illu s tra te d by the follow ing ta b u latio n b a se d on d ata fro m tab les 1-4, w hich a r r a y s , by m a jo r in d u stry seg m en t, the fo u r re g io n s w ith the h ig h est c o n c e n tra tio n s of e le c tro n ic s em p lo y m en t. The a r r a y fo r each in d u s try seg m en t is in descen d in g o rd e r, a c co rd in g to the p e rc e n t (show n in p a re n th e se s) of em p lo y m en t in the in d u s try seg m en t in J a n u a ry 1961 a c ­ counted fo r by each reg io n .

All industry segments

Middle Atlantic (31)

Pacific (21) East North Central (20) 

New England (12)

Military and indus­ trial electronics

Pacific (31)

Middle Atlantic (27) East North Central (12) 

New England (l 8)

Consumer electronics

East North Central (49) 

Middle Atlantic (31) Pacific (11)

New England (3)

Electronic components

Middle Atlantic (36)

New England (21) East North Central (18) Pacific (13)

i One other region, the South Atlantic, ranked ahead of New England, with 10 percent of employment in 

the industry segment.

The P a c ific re g io n , fo r ex am p le, ran k ed f i r s t in n u m b er of m ilita ry and in d u s tria l e le c tro n ic s w o rk e rs but only th ird and fo u rth in the two o th e r in d u stry seg m en ts show n. The E a s t N o rth C e n tra l S tates, on the o th e r hand, ran k ed only th ird in two in d u s try seg m en ts but acco u n ted fo r ro u g h ly h a lf (49 p e rc e n t) of a ll em p lo y m en t in the c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts field ; th is w as the h ig h e st p ro p o rtio n accounted fo r by any re g io n in any in d u s try seg m en t. The New E ngland S tates ran k ed lo w est in two in d u s­ tr y se g m en ts but second in cbm ponents m an u factu rin g em p lo y m en t.

B etw een 1958 and 1961, each of the fo u r m a jo r re g io n s had in c re a s e s in the n u m b er of e le c tro n ic s w o rk e rs , but the in c re a s e s w ere u n equal in ra te (table 1). A s a re s u lt, re g io n a l em ploym ent as a p ro p o rtio n of n a tio n a l em p lo y m en t d eclin ed in the M iddle A tla n tic and E a s t N o rth C e n tra l S ta te s, re m a in e d the sam e in New E ngland, and ro s e m a rk e d ly in the P a c ific re g io n --fro m 15 p e rc e n t to 21 p e rc e n t. C a lifo rn ia a c ­ counted fo r v irtu a lly a ll e le c tro n ic s e m ­ plo y m en t in the P a c ific re g io n in both 1961 and 1958.

EMPLOYMENT SIZE OF ELECTRONICS ESTABLISHMENTS

T able 5 p re s e n ts d ata fro m the 1958 C en su s of M an u factu res on the em p loym ent

siz e of e le c tro n ic s e s ta b lis h m e n ts .8 A s in ta b le s 1-4, the d ata do not re la te to a ll e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g em plo y m en t, but only to th a t in the sev en SIC 4 - d ig it in d u s­ tr ie s p r im a r ily engaged in su ch m an u fac­ tu r in g .9

The m a jo r co n clu sio n to be draw n fro m the d ata is th a t the m a jo rity of the e le c ­ tro n ic s p la n ts em ploy s m a ll n u m b e rs of w o rk e rs and acco u n t fo r little o v e ra ll in ­ d u s try em ploym ent, w hile a re la tiv e ly few la rg e p la n ts account fo r siz a b le p ro p o rtio n s of in d u s try em plo y m en t. N e a rly tw o -th ird s (65 p e rc e n t) of the 2,527 p la n ts had few er th an 50 em p lo y ees each in 1958, and e m ­ ployed only 5 p e rc e n t of the to ta l w o rk fo rc e . On the o th e r end of the sc a le , e s ta b lis h ­ m en ts w ith 250 o r m o re em p lo y ees r e p r e ­ sen ted only 13 p e rc e n t of the 2,527 e s ta b ­ lish m e n ts but acco u n ted fo r 79 p e rc e n t of

8In addition to the 2,527 establishments covered in table 5, 

many other plants making electronic products are classified in 

SIC industries not primarily engaged in electronics manufacturing—that is, in industries in which electronics shipments represent less than half of the value of total shipments. (See 

appendix A for a list of most of these industries.) The Electronic 

Industries Association estimates that more than 5,500 establishments were making some electronic products in the United 

States in late 1961 (Electronic Industries 1962 Yearbook, p. 1).

9 The Census Bureau's figure of 401,400 in table 5 differs from the Labor Department's figure of 458,400 in table 1, even though 

both represent the sum of employment in the same seven SIC 

industries, because (1) collection methods and criteria differ 

between the two series, and (2) the figures in table 5 are averages for 1958 while those in table 1 are as of January 1958.

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to ta l em ploym ent; e sta b lish m e n ts w ith 2,500 o r m o re em p lo y ees equaled only 1 p e rc e n t of a ll e sta b lish m e n ts but accounted fo r at le a s t 22 p e rc e n t of to ta l em p lo y m en t.10

On an in d ividual in d u stry b a s is , h a lf o r m o re of the e sta b lish m e n ts in 6 of the 7 in d u s trie s had few er th an 50 em p lo y ees each , but the p ro p o rtio n of in d u s try em p lo y ­ m en t accounted fo r by th e se s m a lle r p la n ts w as in no c a se g r e a te r th an 13 p e rc e n t, and in one c a se a s low a s 1.5 p e rc e n t. On the o th e r hand, the p ro p o rtio n of e sta b lish m e n ts w ith 250 o r m o re em p lo y ees w as in no c a se h ig h e r th an 38 p e rc e n t and in one c a se as low a s 7 p e rc e n t, but th e se la r g e r e s ta b ­ lis h m e n ts acco u n ted fo r s h a re s of in d u s try em p lo y m en t ran g in g fro m 60 to 97 p e rc e n t. W hile fig u re s fo r the la r g e s t em p lo y m en t- siz e c la s s e s a re not given fo r e v e ry in ­ d u s try in tab le 5, th o se given g e n e ra lly show em ploym ent c o n c e n tra tio n s in a few v e ry la rg e p la n ts. In the c o n su m e r fie ld of ra d io and TV re c e iv in g s e ts , fo r ex am p le, 20 e s ta b lish m e n ts (9 p e rc e n t of the to tal) had 57 p e rc e n t of to ta l in d u stry em ployio Exact employment in plants with 2,500 or more employees is not ascertainable from table 5 because of data withheld for SIC industries 3671 and 3673, to avoid disclosing figures for individual companies. Maximum and minimum employment for this 

category of establishments, however, may be determined in these two SIC industries. With the help of these maximums and minimums, it may be concluded that, for the 7 industries of 

table 5 combined, employment in plants with 2,500 or more employees equaled between 22 and 26 percent of total employment.

m ent; in the m ilita ry and in d u s tria l fie ld of ra d io and TV co m m u n icatio n eq uipm ent, 31 e sta b lis h m e n ts (6 p e rc e n t of the to tal) acco u n ted fo r 66 p e rc e n t of in d u s try e m ­ ploym ent; and in the m an u factu re of tr a n s ­ m ittin g e le c tro n tu b e s, 6 e sta b lis h m e n ts (12 p e rc e n t of the to tal) had 55 p e rc e n t of in d u s try em p lo y m en t. R a te s of em p lo y m en t change betw een 1958 and 1961 in the fo u r m a jo r re g io n s w ere unequal a lso in te r m s of m a jo r in ­ d u s try se g m e n ts, a s in d icated in the follow ­ ing ta b u la tio n b a se d on d ata fro m ta b le s 1 to 4, c o v erin g the fo u r re g io n s w ith the la r g e s t c o n c e n tra tio n s of e le c tro n ic s e m ­ p lo y m en t. The ta b u la tio n show s, fo r e ach m a jo r re g io n and in d u s try seg m en t, the change w hich o c c u rre d b etw een 1958 and 1961 in the p ro p o rtio n w hich w o rk e rs in the re g io n re p re s e n te d of to ta l n atio n al e m ­ ploym ent in the in d u s try seg m en t. C hanges a re show n in te r m s of the n u m b er of p e r ­ ce n t p o in ts gained o r lo s t in th e se p r o ­

p o rtio n s.

All Military and industry industrial Consumer Electronic 

Major region segments electronics electronics components

Middle Atlantic

CO

1

+0.5 1-7.6 -2.3 Pacific 46.0 -.8 +3.0 46.8 East North Central -3.8 +2.4 +7.4 -5.1 New England 0 -2.9 + .6 +1.0

lThis relatively sharp drop was due to a marked employment 

decline in New Jersey.

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Table 1. Employment in electronics manufacturing,1 by region and State

January 1958 and January 1961

Region1 2 and State3

January 1958 January 1961

Number Percent Number Percent

All employees.......••••• 458,405 100.0 616,860 100.0

Middle Atlantic................ 158,328 34.5 192,193 31.2

New York................. 61,527 13.4 75,625 12.3

New Jersey.................. 56,013 12.2 58,797 9.5

Pennsylvania................. 40,788 8.9 57,771 9.4

Pacific....................... 69,849 15.2 130,552 21.2

California................... 68,914 15.0 129,090 20.9

Other....... ................ 935 .2 1,462 .2

East North Central.............. 107,544 23.5 121,703 19.7

Illinois.................... 58,008 12.7 60,757 9.8

Indiana..... ................ 28,888 6.3 31,233 5.1

Wisconsin.................... 3,432 .7 13,772 2.2

Ohio........................ 12,000 2.6 11,052 1.8

Michigan.................... 5,216 1.1 4,889 .8

New England................... 55,312 12.1 74,591 12.1

Massachusetts................ 43,883 9.6 50,986 8.3

Connecticut................. 6,110 1.3 10,148 1.6

New Hampshire................ 4,133 .9 6,782 1.1

Other....................... 1,186 .3 6,675 1.1

South Atlantic................ 28,402 6.2 40,636 6.6

North Carolina............... 13,744 3.0 16,151 2.6

Maryland.................... 8,355 1.8 9,843 1.6

Florida..................... 3,972 .9 9,789 1.6

Other....................... 2,331 .5 4,853 .8

West North Central............. 12,226 2.7 22,553 3.7

Iowa........................ 7,507 1.6 11,125 1.8

Minnesota................... 2,156 .5 6,098 1.0

Other....................... 2,563 .6 5,330 .9

West South Central............. 7,793 1.7 16,880 2.7

Texas....................... 6,764 1.5 15,821 2.6

Other....................... 1,029 .2 1,059 .2

East South Central............. 11,035 2.4 11,937 1.9

Kentucky.................. . • 4,936 1.1 4,403 .7

Other....................... 6,099 1.3 7,534 1.2

Mountain..... ................. 7,916 1.7 5,815 .9

Arizona..................... 7,219 1.6 4,720 .8

Other........ •••••........ . 697 .2 1,095 .2

1 Data in this table cover the seven 4-digit industries, 1957 SIC code, each with at

least $25 million in electronics shipments in 1958, and with electronics shipments representing half or more of the value of total shipments. These industries are SIC 3651 (Radio

and television receiving sets, except communication types), 3652 (Phonograph records),

3662 (Radio and television transmitting, signaling, and detection equipment and apparatus), 3671 (Radio and television receiving type electron tubes, except cathode ray), 3672

(Cathode ray picture tubes), 3673 (Transmitting, industrial, and special purpose electron

tubes), and 3679 (Electronic components and accessories, not elsewhere classified).

2 States in each region are as follows: Middle Atlantic— New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania; Pacific— Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington; East North Central— Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin; New England— Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts,

New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont; South Atlantic— Delaware, District of Columbia,

Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia; West

North Central— Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota;

West South Central— Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas; East South Central— Alabama,

Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee; and Mountain— Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada,

New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming.

3 States individually listed are those which had, in either January 1958 or January 1961,

at least 1.0 percent of total employment in the seven 4-digit industries covered by the

table.

Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.

Source: Unpublished data collected by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment

Security.

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Table 2. Employment in military-space and industrial-commercial electronics

manufacturing,1 by region and State, January 1958 and January 1961

Region and State1 2

January 1958 January 1961

Number Percent Number Percent

All employees............. 153,590 100.0 293,197 100.0

Pacific.................... . • • •. <48,211 31.4 89,856 30.6

California.................... 47,493 30.9 88,858 30.3

Other.................. ....... 718 .5 998 .3

Middle Atlantic................. 41,284 26.9 80,349 27.4

New York...................... 24,430 15.9 36,472 12.4

New Jersey.................... 12,226 8.0 28,286 9.6

Pennsylvania.... ............. 4,628 3.0 15,591 5.3

East North Central.............. 14,193 9.2 34,153 11.6

Illinois...................... 10,455 6.8 13,588 4.6

Wisconsin..................... 802 .5 10,730 3.7

Ohio........................... 1,979 1.3 4,763 1.6

Indiana................... . • • • 158 .1 4,205 1.4

Other......................... 799 .5 867 .3

South Atlantic.................. 20,561 13.4 30,713 10.5

North Carolina................ 11,450 7.5 13,552 4.6

Maryland...................... 7,924 5.2 9,166 3.1

Florida....................... 1,033 .7 6,617 2.3

Other...... . •. • ............. . 154 .1 1,378 .5

New England....... ............. 17,508 11.4 24,998 8.5

Massachusetts................. 14,096 9.2 16,428 5.6

Connecticut................... 2,148 1.4 3,395 1.2

Other....................... . • 1,264 .8 5,175 1.8

West North Central.............. 2,566 1.7 15,181 5.2

Iowa............... ...... ..... 467 .3 9,376 3.2

Minnesota..................... 1,128 .7 4,541 1.5

Other......................... 971 .6 1,264 .4

West South Central.............. 4,105 2.7 14,367 4.9

Texas......................... 4,064 2.6 14,130 4.8

Other......................... 41 (3 ) 237 .1

East South Central..... ........ 167 .1 3,166 1.1

Tennessee.............. ....... 85 .1 3,093 1.1

Other..... ........ ........... 82 .1 73 (3 )

Mountain........................ 4,995 3.3 414 .i

Arizona....................... 4,877 3.2 70 (3 )

Other......................... 118 .1 344 .i

1 Data in this table cover t h e 4-digit military-space and industrial-commercial electronics industry, 1957 SIC code, with at least $25 million in electronics shipments in

1958, and with electronics shipments representing half or more of the value of total shipments. This industry is SIC 3662: Radio and television transmitting, signaling, and detection equipment and apparatus. This industry is identified in the 1957 SIC code, as

a m e n d e d by the 1958 supplement, as follows: "Establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing (1) radio and television broadcasting equipment; (2) electric communication equipment and parts, except telephone and telegraph; (3) electronic field detection apparatus,

light and heat emission operating apparatus, object detection apparatus and navigational

electronic equipment, infrared object detection equipment, and aircraft and missile control systems; and (4) other electric and electronic communication and signaling products,

not elsewhere classified.”

2 States individually listed are those which had, in either January 1958 or January 1961,

at least 1.0 percent of total employment in SIC 3662.

3 Less than .05 percent.

Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.

Source: Unpublished data collected by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment

Security.

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Table 3. Employment in consumer electronics manufacturing,1 by region and State,

January 1958 and January 1961

Region and State2

January 1958 January 1961

Number Percent Number Percent

All employees............. 127,185 100.0 97,186 100.0

East North Central............. 52,950 41.6 47,662 49.0

Illinois..................... 27,963 22.0 26,814 27.6

Indiana...................... 16,490 13.0 16,410 16.9

Michigan..................... 3,002 2.4 2,293 2.4

Ohio......................... 5,278 4.1 1,913 2.0

Other....... ................. 217 .2 232 .2

Middle Atlantic • • • • .......•••••• 48,693 38.3 29,854 30.7

New York..................... 17,132 13.5 15,585 16.0

Pennsylvania............. . 9,345 7.4 7,925 8.2

New Jersey................... 22,216 17.5 6,344 6.5

Pacific........................ 10,089 7.9 10,561 10.9

New England.................... 2,963 2.3 2,843 2.9

East South Central.... . 2,327 1.8 2,317 2.4

Tennessee.................... 1,987 1.6 1,693 1.7

Other............... ......... 340 .3 624 .6

West North Central............. 7,211 5.7 2,167 2.2

West South Central............. 2,292 1.8 809 .8

Other regions (South Atlantic

and Mountain)................ 660 .5 973 1.0

1 Data in this table cover the two -4-digit consumer electronics industries, 1957 SIC

code, each with at least $25 million in electronics shipments in 1958, and with electronics shipments representing half or more of the value of total shipments. These industries are SIC 3651 (Radio and television receiving sets, except communication types)

and 3652 (Phonograph records).

2 States individually listed are those which had, in either January 1958 or January

1961, at least 1.0 percent of total employment in the two 4-digit industries covered by

the table, except that individual listing of some States was withheld to avoid disclosure

of confidential data.

Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.

Source: Unpublished data collected by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security.

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Table 4. Employment in electronic components manufacturing,1 by region and State,

January 1958 and January 1961

Region and State1 2

January 1958 January 1961

Number Percent Number Percent

All employees............ 177,630 100.0 226,477 100.0

Middle Atlantic................ 68,351 38.5 81,990 36.2

Pennsylvania................. 26,815 15.1 34,255 15.1

New Jersey................... 21,571 12.1 24,167 10.7

New York............. ........ 19,965 11.2 23,568 10.4

New England.................... 34,841 19.6 46,750 20.6

Massachusetts................ 28,483 16.0 33,338 14.7

Connecticut.................. 2,434 1.4 5,322 2.3

New Hampshire................ 3,045 1.7 4,386 1.9

Other........................ 879 .5 3,704 1.6

East North Central............. 40,401 22.7 39,888 17.6

Illinois..................... 19,590 11.0 20,355 9.0

Indiana...................... 12,240 6.9 10,618 4.7

Ohio......................... 4,743 2.7 4,376 1.9

Wisconsin.......... ........ 2,413 1.4 2,810 1.2

Other........................ 1,415 .8 1,729 .8

Pacific............. ........... 11,549 6.5 30,135 13.3

South Atlantic................ . 7,191 4.1 8,953 4.0

Florida.......... ............ 2,939 1.7 2,921 1.3

North Carolina............... 2,250 1.3 2,393 1.1

Other........................ 2,002 1.1 3,639 1.6

East South Central............. 8,541 4.8 6,454 2.8

Mountain............ ........... 2,911 1.6 5,398 2.4

Arizona...................... 2,332 1.3 4,647 2.1

Other......................... 579 .3 751 .3

West North Central............. 2,449 1.4 5,205 2.3

West South Central............. 1,396 .8 1,704 .8

1 Data in this table cover the four 4-digit components industries, 1957 SIC code, each

with at least $25. million in electronics shipments in 1958, and with electronics shipments

representing half or more of the value of total shipments. These industries are SIC 3671

(Radio and television receiving type electron tubes, except cathode ray), 3672 (Cathode

ray picture tubes), 3673 (Transmitting, industrial, and special purpose electron tubes),

and 3679 (Electronic components and accessories, not elsewhere classified).

2 States individually listed are those which had, in either January 1958 or January

1961, at least 1.0 percent of total employment in the four 4-digit industries covered by

the table, except that individual listing of some States was withheld to avoid disclosure

of confidential data.

Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.

Source: Unpublished data collected by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security.

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Table 5. Employment size of establishments in electronics manufacturing, by SIC industry, 19581

SIC

number

SIC industry

All

establishments

Establishments with an average of—

1-49

employees

50-249

employees

250-999

employees

1,000-2,499

employees

2,500

employees

or more

Totals:

Establishments:

Number............. ............... 2,527 1,635 560 234 75 23

Percent of total.................. 100.0 64.7 22.2 9.3 3.0 0.9

Employees: *

Number............................. 401,351 21,110 62,579 (2) 0 (*)

Percent of total.................. 100.0 5.3 15.6 (2) (2) (2)

3651 Radio and TV receiving sets:

Establishments:

Number............................. 234 117 59 38 17 3

Percent of total................. . 100.0 50.0 25.2 16.2 7.3 1.3

Employees:

Number............................. 66,505 1,529 7,199 19,662 25,709 12,406

Percent of total.................. 100.0 2.3 10.8 29.6 38.7 18.7

3652 Phonograph records:

Establishments:

Number............................. 94 67 20 5 2 0

Percent of total.................. 100.0 71.3 21.3 5.3 2.1 0

Employees:

Number............................. 7,421 991 1,937 4,493 (3) 0

Percent of total.................. 100.0 13.4 26.1 60.5 0

3662 Radio and TV communication equipment:

Establishments:

Number............................. 512 327 100 54 18 13

Percent of total.................. 100.0 63.9 19.5 10.6 3.5 2.5

Employees:

Number............................. 129,515 3,904 12,307 27,252 30,652 55,400

Percent of total.................. 100.0 3.0 9.5 21.0 23.7 42.8

3671 Electron tubes, receiving type:

Establishments:

Number............................. 85 54 4 6 9 14 2

Percent of total.................. 100.0 63.5 7.1 10.6 16.5 2.4

Employees:

Number..................... ....... 36,968 567 421 35,980 (3) (3)

Percent of total............ ...... 100.0 1.5 1.1 97.. 3

See fo o tn o tes a t end of ta b le

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Table 5. Employment size of establishments in electronics manufacturing, by SIC industry, 19581— Continued

SIC

number SIC industry

All

establishments

Establishments with an average of—

1-49

employees

50-249

employees

250-999

employees

1,000-2,499

employees

2,500

employees

or more

3672 Cathode ray picture tubes:

Establishments:

Number........................... 75 56 11 5 3 0

Percent of total....... .......... 100.0 74.7 14.7 6.7 4.0 0

Employees:

Number......... .................. 8,554 706 897 6,951 (3) 0

Percent of total................. 100.0 8.3 10.5 81.3 0

3673 Electron tubes, transmitting:

Establishments:

Number ••••••••••••••............. 48 16 14 12 4 2

Percent of total................. 100.0 33.3 29.2 25.0 8.3 4.2

Employees:

Number........................... 20,146 466 1,600 6,931 11,149 (3)

Percent of total................. 100.0 2.3 7.9 34.4 55.3

3679 Electronic components, n.e.c.

Establishments:

Number........................... 1,479 998 350 111 17 3

Percent of total................. 100.0 67.5 23.7 7.5 1.1 .2

Employees:

Number........................... 132,242 12,947 38,218 48,381 23,872 8,824

Percent of total................. 100.0 9.8 28.9 36.6 18.0 6.7

1 Data in this table cover the seven 4— digit industries, 1957 SIC code, each with at least $25 million in electronics

shipments in 1958, and with electronics shipments representing half or more of the value of total shipments,

2 Not available.

3 Data which cannot be shown separately have been combined with figures in the next lower size class or classes. Combined figures are underlined.

4 All establishments in this group reported an average of 50-99 employees.

Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Census of Manufactures: 1958, MC 58(2)-36D, table 4.

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CHAPTER 2. HISTORICAL GROWTH OF ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING

A lthough the e le c tro n ic s in d u stry a s we know it today is re la tiv e ly new, w ork w as being done in e le c tro n ic s b efo re the s ta r t of th is c e n tu ry . In 1894, O liv er Lodge developed a sy ste m of w ire le s s co m m u ­ n ic a tio n in E ngland. D uring the next few y e a rs , c o n sid e ra b le p r o g r e s s w as m ade in w ire le s s te le g ra p h y by G uglielm o M arconi, E rn e s t R u th e rfo rd , F . K. V reelan d , R . A. F e sse n d e n , and L ee De F o re s t, am ong o th e rs . The invention of the th re e -e le m e n t vacu u m tube by De F o r e s t in 1906 m ade p o ssib le both the d evelopm ent of the rad io b ro a d c a stin g in d u s try and the p ra c tic a l a p p lic a tio n of te le v isio n . B etw een 1910 and 1920 ra p id p r o g re s s w as m ade in the th e o ry , a p p lic a tio n , and c o n stru c tio n of vacuum tu b e s and th e ir c irc u its , and E . H. A rm ­ stro n g b eg an h is w ork in fre q u e n c y m odu­ la tio n (FM ).

D uring W orld W ar I, g ro u n d -to -a irc ra ft ra d io co m m u n icatio n w as in tro d u c e d . A fte r th a t w a r, ra d io b ro a d c a stin g sta tio n s began o p e ra tio n s in a ll p a r ts of the co u n try . By 1939, e le c tro n ic s p ro d u ctio n had grow n in value to $340 m illio n , the n u m b er of ra d io s p ro d u ced eq u aled 10.8 m illio n ,11 and e m ­ p loym ent in w hat w as th en known a s the ra d io s , ra d io tu b e s, and phonographs in ­ d u s try had r is e n to 56,000.12

C ru d e te le v isio n p ic tu re s in c o lo r w ere d e m o n stra te d a s e a r ly a s 1930. B lack and w hite te le v is io n b ro a d c a s ts began in 1936. D uring W orld W ar II, r e s e a r c h in te le v i­ sio n tra n s m ittin g and re c e iv in g continued b e c a u se of p o te n tia l m ilita ry ap p lic a tio n s, and re su ltin g im p ro v e m e n ts led to w ide­ s p re a d c o n su m e r a ccep tan ce of te le v isio n .

M ilita ry equipm ent* including new p ro d ­ u c ts such a s ra d a r , so n a r, and the p ro x im ity fu se , dom inated e le c tro n ic s p ro d u ctio n d u r­ ing W orld W ar II. R e s e a rc h d uring th a t

liProduction and shipments data in this report, unless otherwise indicated, are estimates of the Electronic Industries Association (EIA) or are based on EIA estimates. Some of the EIA 

data used were subsequently slightly revised by that organization, but too late for incorporation here.

u U.S. Census of Manufactures: 1939, Vol. II, Pt. 2, table 2, 

U.S. Bureau of the Census, p. 388.

w ar b ro u g h t about m any te c h n o lo g ical ad ­ v an ces in e le c tro n ic s ap p lic a tio n . E le c ­ tro n ic te stin g and m e a su rin g d e v ices w ere developed, and im p ro v e m e n ts w e re m ade in ra d io n a v ig atio n and a ir flight c o n tro l eq u ip m en t. The d ig ita l c o m p u ter w as d e ­ veloped, to m eet the need fo r h ig h -sp e e d data p ro c e s s in g in advanced sc ie n tific w ork and fo r au to m atic f ire and flig h t c o n tro ls .

The c e s s a tio n of h o s tilitie s ca u se d a s h a rp declin e in em p lo y m en t in e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g , fro m its w a rtim e peak of 380,000 w o rk e rs in 1944,13 *5 but the p o stw a r advent of la r g e - s c a le te le v is io n p ro d u c tio n re s u lte d in an o th e r upw ard tre n d in e m ­ plo y m en t. B etw een 1947 and 1950, the p r o ­ duction of te le v is io n s e ts ro s e fro m 178,600 u n its, w ith a sh ip m en t value of $50 m illio n , to 7.5 m illio n u n its, w ith a sh ip m en t value of $1.35 b illio n , and e le c tro n ic s em p lo y m en t ro s e n e a rly o n e -fifth .u

B etw een 1950 and 1961 e le c tro n ic s m an u ­ fa c tu rin g em ploym ent m o re th an trip le d , equaling an e s tim a te d 778,000 w o rk e rs in the la tte r y e a r .15 The e x tre m e ra p id ity of th is ex p an sio n is ev id en t w hen c o m p a re d w ith a grow th of only 7 p e rc e n t o v e r the sam e p e rio d fo r a ll U.S. m an u factu rin g em p lo y m e n t.16 *

B etw een 1950 and 1961, e le c tro n ic s sh ip ­ m en ts expanded m o re th an fo u rfo ld , fro m

13 Employment Outlook in Electronics Manufacturing (BLS Bul­ letin 1072, 1952), p. 10. MFrom 206,000 workers in 1947, according to the U.S. Bureau 

of the Census, Census of Manufactures: 1947, Vol. II, table 1, p. 739, to 244,000 workers in 1950, according to “ Expansion in 

Electronics Employment,” Monthly Labor Review, February 

1952, p. 151. Both employment figures cover all workers in the 

radios and related products and the electron tubes industries, as 

defined in the 1945 edition of the Standard Industrial Classification Manual (U.S. Executive Office of the President). It is believed that these two industries included nearly all workers engaged in electronics manufacturing in 1947 and 1950.

15 Employment estimate for 1950 appears in footnote 14, estimate for 1961 appears in table 13.

16 U.S. manufacturing employment averaged 15,241,000 workers

in 1950 and 16,267,000 workers in 1961. Data for 1950 from

Employment and Earnings Statistics for the United States, 1909-

60 (BLS Bulletin 1312,1961), p. 29; data for 1961 from Employment and Earnings, June 1962, p. 92.

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$2.6 b illio n to $10.69 b illio n (table 6 ).17 T his ra p id grow th in sh ip m en ts can be a ttrib u te d m ain ly to the w idening v a rie ty of e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts w hich have re s u lte d la rg e ly fro m a ste a d ily grow ing e ffo rt in R&D w ork by both G overnm ent and p riv a te in d u s try . The co m p u ter and the tr a n s is to r (d isc u sse d la te r in th is c h a p te r) a re m a jo r ex a m p le s of the m any innovations due to R&D w ork.

E x p e n d itu res fo r e le c tro n ic s R&D have b een ris in g in re c e n t y e a rs , but s ta tis tic s on th e se e x p e n d itu re s a re fra g m e n ta ry . F unds fo r R&D in the e le c tr ic a l equipm ent and co m m u n icatio n in d u s trie s ro s e about 60 p e rc e n t b etw een 1956 and I960, fro m $1.5 b illio n to $2.4 b illio n .18 A la rg e p o r ­ tio n of e le c tro n ic s R&D is financed by the F e d e ra l G o v ern m en t. T his p o rtio n w as " a p p ro x im a te ly 85 p e rc e n t of the w hole" in 1959, acco rd in g to one e s tim a te .19

TRENDS IN MAJOR PRODUCT CATEGORIES, 1950-61

Military and Space Products. V irtu a lly the only p u rc h a s e r of m ilita ry and space e le c ­ tro n ic p ro d u c ts is the F e d e ra l G o v ern m en t. The D ep artm en t of D efense is the la r g e s t F e d e ra l c u sto m e r, and w as v irtu a lly the only one b efo re the N ational A e ro n a u tic s and Space A d m in istra tio n (NASA) w as e s ta b ­ lish e d in 1958. Since then, the D e p artm en t of D efense h as b een p u rc h a sin g m o re th an 90 p e rc e n t of the m ilita ry and space sh ip ­ m en ts shown in tab le 6.

S hipm ents of m ilita ry and sp ace p ro d u c ts ro s e fro m a value of $500 m illio n in 1950 to $5.49 b illio n in 1961- - a n elevenfold in - 

crease. T hese sh ip m en ts ju m p ed fro m about o n e -fifth of to ta l e le c tro n ic s sh ip r m en ts in 1950 to about o n e -h a lf during the y e a rs of the K o re a n co n flict and have r e ­ m ain ed a t the la tte r le v e l sin ce then.

17 Shipment values are not available by major product category 

for years prior to 1950. Shipment values in table 6, and everywhere else in this report unless otherwise stated, are in current 

dollars. Shipments shown in table 6 are reproduced in appendix A, 

table A -l, in constant 1960 dollars as well as current dollars.

i* National Science Foundation, Review of Data on Research 

and Development, No. 30, NSF 61-51, September 1961, p. 5.

19 Coordination of Information on Current Federal Research 

and Development Projects in the Field of Electronics, prepared 

for the Senate Committee on Government Operations and its 

Subcommittee on Reorganization and International Organizations, 87th Cong., 1st sess., 1961, p. 130.

One m a jo r re a s o n fo r the grow th of e x ­ p e n d itu re s fo r m ilita ry e le c tro n ic s is the shift in d efen se e x p e n d itu re s fro m a ir c r a f t to m is s ile s ; e le c tro n ic equipm ent acco u n ts fo r a s m a lle r p ro p o rtio n of the c o st of a ir c r a f t th an of m is s ile s . B etw een the fis c a l y e a rs 1954 and 1961, ex p e n d itu re s fo r the p ro c u re m e n t of m is s ile s ro s e fro m $417 m illio n to $2.97 b illio n w hile e x p e n d itu re s fo r a ir c r a f t p ro c u re m e n t d eclin ed fro m $9.08 b illio n to $5.9 b illio n (table 7).

A n o th er m a jo r re a s o n fo r grow th in m ilita ry e le c tro n ic s e x p e n d itu re s is the ra p id ex p an sio n of m ilita ry r e s e a r c h , d e ­ velo p m en t, te s t, and e v alu atio n (R D T & E )-- fro m $2.19 b illio n in fis c a l 1954 to $6.13 b illio n in fis c a l 1961 (table 7). E x p e n d itu re s fo r e le c tro n ic s have b een taking an in c r e a s ­ ing sh a re of th e se RDT&E funds, a s the D e p artm en t of D efense develops m o re co m ­ plex w eap o n ry and in c re a s e s the p o rtio n of its d ev elopm ent e ffo rt fo r s p a c e c ra ft.

E x p e n d itu re s by the N atio n al A e ro n a u tic s and Space A d m in istra tio n have r is e n sh a rp ly since the agency w as e s ta b lish e d . F ro m fis c a l 1958 to fis c a l 1961 they ro s e m o re th an e ig h tfo ld --fro m $89 m illio n to $744 m illio n . T hey a re e stim a te d a t $1.29 b illio n fo r fis c a l 1962 and $2.25 b illio n fo r fis c a l 1963.20 * An e stim a te d o n e -fo u rth of th e se e x p e n d itu res a re d isb u rs e d to m an u factu rin g e s ta b lish m e n ts fo r e le c tro n ic p ro d u ct r e ­ se a rc h , d ev elopm ent, and p ro c u re m e n t.

Industrial and Commercial Products, in ­ d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic s sh ip ­ m en ts ro s e ra p id ly betw een 1950 and 1961, fro m $350 m illio n to $2.2 b illio n (table 6). The grow th ra te fo r th is p ro d u ct c a te g o ry ex ceeded th a t fo r the e le c tro n ic s in d u s try as a w hole; in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l sh ip m en ts ro s e fro m 14 p e rc e n t of to ta l e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts in 1950 to 21 p e rc e n t in 1961. E x p an sio n of th is p ro d u ct c a te g o ry h as b een e sp e c ia lly ra p id sin ce 1956. T able 8 show s d e ta ile d d ata fo r the y e a rs since 1956 fo r v a rio u s ty p es of in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l equ ip m en t.

Expanding a p p lic a tio n s fo r com puting, data p ro c e s s in g , and in d u s tria l c o n tro l equipm ent r e p r e s e n t the p rin c ip a l re a s o n fo r th is ra p id re c e n t ex p an sio n . B etw een

20The Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year

Ending June 30, 1963 (1962), p. 110 for fiscal 1958 figure and

p. 246 for figures for other years. NASA expenditures in constant 1960 dollars are shown in appendix A, table A-2.

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1956 and 1961, sh ip m en ts of c o m p u te rs and in d u s tria l c o n tro ls ro s e fro m $240 m illio n to $980 m illio n , and fro m 25 p e r ­ cen t to 45 p e rc e n t of to ta l in d u s tria l- c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts (table 8).

The f ir s t g e n e ra l-p u rp o s e e le c tro n ic c o m p u ter d esigned fo r b u sin e ss d ata p ro c ­ e ssin g and sc ie n tific u se (U nivac I) w as p ro d u ced aro u n d 1948. By I960, c o m p u te rs in u se in th is co u n try w ere e stim a te d to n u m b er betw een 3,600 and 4 ,40021 ; by the c lo se of 1961, m o re th an 8,800 c o m p u te rs had b een in s ta lle d .22

C o m p u ters have found ap p licatio n in r e ­ s e a rc h la b o ra to rie s , b u sin e ss o ffices, and in d u s tria l p ro d u ctio n . The f ir s t co m p u ter d esig n ed fo r o n -lin e in d u s tria l u se w as ap p lied to a p e tro le u m re fin e ry o p e ra tio n in 1958. C o m p u ters have sin ce b een in ­ sta lle d to c o n tro l m any ad d itio n al ty p es of p ro d u c tio n o p e ra tio n s, such as th o se in c h e m ic a l p la n ts, e le c tric pow er sta tio n s, and s te e l ro llin g m ills .

C o m p u ter r e s e a r c h a lso c o n trib u te d to the developm ent of sp e c ia liz e d e le c tro n ic d e v ic e s u se d to c o n tro l m etalw o rk in g op­ e ra tio n s . M achines equipped w ith th e se d e v ic e s o p e ra te a u to m a tic a lly , taking th e ir in s tru c tio n s fro m p e rfo ra te d tap e, m ag ­ n etic tap e, o r o th e r m ed ia. N u m e ric a l c o n tro l h a s b een ap p lied to d rillin g , b o rin g , m illin g , tu rn in g , shaping, punching, flam e cu ttin g , w elding, g rin d in g , and tube b en d ­ ing o p e ra tio n s. M ore than 1,500 n u m e ri­ c a lly c o n tro lle d m achine to o ls w ere sold by m id- 1961.28 29

T estin g and m e a su rin g eq uipm ent is a n o th e r type of in d u s tria l e le c tro n ic p ro d ­ u ct w hich h as found expanded ap p lic a tio n s in re c e n t y e a rs . S hipm ents of such eq u ip ­ m en t ro s e fro m $170 m illio n in 1956 to $290 m illio n in 1961 (tab le 8). E x am p les of n ew er kinds of te stin g and m e a su rin g equipm ent include tr a n s is to r iz e d sc a le s y ste m s; e le c tro n ic c a lip e rs ; X -ra y g ag es, such a s th o se u se d in s te e l p la n ts to c o n tro l the th ic k n e ss of sh e e t ste e l; tube and e le c ­ tro n ic c ir c u itr y te stin g equipm ent; cath o d e- ra y o sc illo sc o p e s; and audio o s c illa to rs .

a Frank Leary, “ New Developments in Computers,“ Elec­ tronics, McGraw-Hill, New York, Aug. 26,1960, p. 30.

22 “ Computers Census as of December 1961,“ Business Automation, O. A. Business Publications, Inc.,Elmhurst, 111., January 

1962, p. 39. 2* American Machinist/Metalworking Manufacturing, McGrawHill, New York, Nov. 27, 1961, p. 89. ‘

S hipm ents of lan d m o b ile, m icro w av e, and b ro a d c a stin g equipm ent in c re a s e d b etw een 1956 and 1961, fro m $120 m illio n to $215 m illio n (table 8). C o n trib u tin g to th is in ­ c re a s e h as b een the grow ing dem and fo r tw o-w ay ra d io equipm ent d esig n ed fo r u se in a u to m o b iles, b o a ts, and o th e r m obile in s ta lla tio n s , fo r m icro w av e r e la y eq u ip ­ m ent, and fo r c o m m e rc ia l ra d io and te le ­ v isio n b ro a d c a stin g equ ip m en t. M icrow ave re la y is a re la tiv e ly new sy ste m of co m ­ m u n icatio n involving the tra n s m is s io n of u ltra h ig h fre q u e n c ie s (UHF) along a s e r ie s of s h o rt-ra n g e ra d io r e p e a te r sta tio n s. M any ty p es of m u ltie sta b lish m e n t e n te r ­ p r is e s , including m an u factu rin g f irm s , public u tilitie s , in su ra n c e co m p a n ie s, and b an k s, u se m icro w av e equipm ent to feed d ata into c o m p u te rs fro m d iv e rs e lo c a ­ tio n s. C o m m e rc ia l rad io and te le v is io n sta tio n s on the a ir in c re a s e d by 28 p e rc e n t betw een 1956 and 1961, fro m 3,922 to 5,034, and the n u m b er of ed u catio n al te le v is io n sta tio n s on the a ir ro s e fro m 20 to 5 4 .24 S te re o -F M ra d io b ro a d c a stin g beg an in 1961, and, by D ecem b er of th a t y e a r, m o re th an 30 sta tio n s w ere on the a i r . 25

B etw een 1956 and 1961 the sh ip m en t value of "O th er in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l p ro d ­ u c ts " ro s e by 70 p e rc e n t, fro m $420 m il­ lio n to $715 m illio n (table 8). T his grow th re fle c ts in c r e a s e s in the n u m b er of c iv il a ir c r a f t,26 the grow ing u se of e le c tro n ic n av ig atio n al a id s on p a s s e n g e r sh ip s and m e rc h a n t v e s s e ls , ex p an sio n of the ato m ic en e rg y f ie ld ,27 and an expanding m a rk e t fo r m e d ic a l and th e ra p e u tic e le c tro n ic e q u ip m e n t.28 29

u 27th Annual Report, Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 1961 (Federal Communications Commission), pp. 59-60. 25 Electronic News, Fairchild Publications, Inc., New York, 

Nov. 27,1961, p. 28. 26 Among the electronic items used for civil aircraft are communication equipment and navigational aids such as air and 

ground traffic control equipment, altim eters, autopilots, radio 

direction finders, and flight control equipment. 27 Examples of electronic devices for nuclear work include dosimeters, geiger counters, reactor sensing controls, radiation detection devices, and particle accelerators. *®Including such items as X-ray equipment, cardiographs, 

diathermy equipment, ultraviolet microscopes, and ultrasonic 

drilling equipment used by dentists. 29 Additional example of “ other industrial and commercial 

products’* include commercial sound equipment (coin-operated 

phonographs, public address systems, intercommunications sys­ tems, and theater sound equipment); cryptographic devices, and 

other communication equipment; automotive equipment, such as headlight dimmers and speed controls; geophysical exploration 

equipment; meteorological equipment, such as radiosondes and 

wind-speed indicators; radio astronomy equipment; lie detec­ tors; photoelectric equipment; and electronic drafting equipment.

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Consumer Products. The value of c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts in c re a s e d fro m $1.5 b illio n in 1950 to $2.05 b illio n in 1961 (tab le 6). This re p re s e n te d a c o n sid e ra b ly lo w e r ra te of grow th th an the a v e ra g e fo r the e le c tro n ic s in d u s try a s a w hole. C on­ su m e r p ro d u c ts fe ll fro m the p o sitio n of la r g e s t e le c tro n ic s p ro d u c t c a te g o ry in 1950, w ith 58 p e rc e n t of to ta l e le c tro n ic s sh ip m e n ts, to th ird la r g e s t c a te g o ry in 1961--fo llo w in g both m ilita ry and in d u s­ t r i a l e le c tro n ic s --w ith 19 p e rc e n t of to ta l e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts.

M ajo r c o n su m e r ite m s a re m onochrom e (black and w hite) te le v isio n s e ts , w hich acco u n ted fo r about 40 p e rc e n t of c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts in 1961; phonographs and ra d io s , each accounting fo r ro u g h ly 15 p e rc e n t of 1961 c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic s sh ip ­ m e n ts; and phonograph r e c o rd s , accounting fo r a p p ro x im a te ly 12 p e rc e n t of 1961 co n ­ s u m e r e le c tro n ic s sh ip m e n ts. T ren d s b e ­ tw een 1950 and 1961 in te le v isio n and ra d io p ro d u ctio n a re in d icated in tab le 9, and in phonograph and p h o n o g ra p h -re c o rd s a le s in tab le 10.

Some of the n ew er c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts in clude c o lo r te le v is io n r e c e iv e rs , tap e r e c o r d e r s , high fid e lity and stereo p h o n ic sound equipm ent, e le c tro n ic o rg a n s, hom e 

in te rc o m m u n ic a tio n sy s te m s , au to m atic g a ra g e -d o o r o p e n e rs, e le c tro n ic ovens, m in ia tu riz e d h e a rin g a id s, and Citizen* s- B and rad io equipm ent fo r co n su m e r u se . C o lo r te le v isio n acco u n ted fo r only a sm a ll seg m en t of the to ta l te le v isio n m a rk e t du rin g the 1950* s. S e v e ra l m a jo r p ro d u c e rs have re c e n tly begun m an u factu rin g c o lo r s e ts , and c o n su m e r accep tan ce of the p ro d u c t is ex p ected to grow w ith a w id er v a rie ty of m odels to choose fro m , im p ro v e ­ m en ts in q u ality of s e ts , and in c re a s e d c o lo r p ro g ra m in g . S ales of c o lo r te le v is io n s e ts m o re than doubled b etw een 1961 and 1962, to talin g o v er 400,000 in the la tte r 

y e a r.

Electronic Components. E le c tro n ic c o m ­ p o n en ts c o n s is t of rec e iv in g tu b e s, TV p ic tu re tu b es, pow er tu b es, and sp e c ia l- p u rp o se tubes such a s th o se u sed in u ltr a - h igh fre q u en cy equipm ent; se m ic o n d u c to rs,

p rin c ip a lly tr a n s is to r s , d io d es, and r e c ti­ fie r s ; and o th e r co m p o n en ts, such as c a p a c ­ ito r s , r e s is to r s , tr a n s f o r m e r s , re la y s , 

c o n n e c to rs, switches, p rin te d c irc u it b o a rd s , s p e a k e rs , tu n e rs , and an te n n a s.

C om ponents a re u sed in o rig in a l m ili­ ta ry , in d u s tria l, o r c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic eq uipm ent o r a s re p la c e m e n ts to m a in ta in and re p a ir such eq u ip m en t. The m a jo rity of c o m p o n e n ts--a b o u t 70 p e rc e n t of sh ip ­ m en ts value in 1960 and 1961- - a r e u sed in o rig in a l equipm ent and the r e s t as re p la c e ­ m ent p a r ts (table 11).

S hipm ents of e le c tro n ic com ponents in ­ c re a s e d fro m $1.16 b illio n in 1950 to $3.27 b illio n in 1961 (ta b le s 11 and 12). S hipm ents of tr a n s is to r s , d io d es, and r e c tif ie r s e x ­ panded e s p e c ia lly ra p id ly d uring the 1950* s. B etw een 1954--th e e a r lie s t y e a r fo r w hich sh ip m en ts d ata fo r th e se p ro d u c ts a re a v a il­ a b le --a n d 1961, tr a n s is to r sh ip m en ts in ­ c re a s e d fro m $5.1 m illio n to $299.5 m il­ lion, and diode and r e c tif ie r sh ip m en ts fro m $20.0 m illio n to $200.0 m illio n (table 12). M uch of th is in c re a s e h as b een a t the expense of re c e iv in g tu b e s, since s e m i­ co n d u c to rs p e rfo rm m any of the functions p e rfo rm e d by tu b e s. Shipm ents of re c e iv in g tu b es have r is e n re la tiv e ly little sin ce 1954. In 1960 and 1961,tr a n s is to r sh ip m en ts alone w ere n e a rly a s la rg e a s th o se of re c e iv in g tube s .

The tr a n s is to r , inv en ted in 1948, is a nso lid s ta te " d ev ice30 w hich can p e rfo rm m any of the fu n ctio n s of an e le c tro n tube, such a s re c tific a tio n , a m p lific a tio n , o s c il­ la tio n , sw itching, and p u lse g e n e ra tio n . The ad v an tag es of tr a n s is to r s o v er c e rta in ty p es of e le c tro n tu b e s - - s m a ll siz e , low pow er re q u ire m e n ts , low h e a t d issip a tio n , long life , and ru g g e d n e s s --le d to th e ir u se d uring the 1950*s w here th e se q u a litie s w ere e s p e c ia lly im p o rta n t. T ra n s is to r s found w id e sp re a d ap p lic a tio n not only in m ilita ry -s p a c e and in d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l equipm ent but a lso in m any c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts, such a s h e a rin g a id s, p o rta b le ra d io s , and te le v is io n r e c e iv e rs .

so The operation of transistors and other semiconductors depends on the structure and characteristics of solids, whereas 

electron tubes enclose a vacuum or gas.

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Table 6. Value of electronics shipments, by major product category, 1950-62

Year

All

electronics

shipments

Military

and space

products1

Industrial

and commercial

products

Consumer

products2

Replacement

parts

Value (millions)

1950......... $2,600 $500 $350 $1,500 $250

1951......... 3,250 1,050 450 1,400 350

1952......... 4,250 2,050 500 1,300 400

1953......... 5,150 2,650 600 1,400 500

1954......... 5,400 2,700 650 1,400 650

1955......... 5,800 2,800 750 1,500 750

1956......... 6,850 3,450 950 1,600 850

1957......... 8,000 4,100 1,300 1,700 900

1958......... 8,260 4,420 1,380 1,600 860

1959......... 9,240 4,740 1,600 2,000 900

1960......... 9,950 5,100 1,850 2,100 900

1961......... 10,690 5,490 2,200 2,050 950

19623........ 11,820 6,220 2,500 2,100 1,000

Percent of total electronics shipments

1950......... 100.0 19.2 13.5 57.7 9.6

1951......... 100.0 32.3 13.8 43.1 10.8

1952......... 100.0 48.2 11.8 30.6 9.4

1953......... 100.0 51.5 11.7 27.2 9.7

1954......... 100.0 50.0 12.0 25.9 12.0

1955.... ..... 100.0 48.3 12.9 25.9 12.9

1956......... 100.0 50.4 13.9 23.4 12.4

1957......... 100.0 51.3 16.3 21.3 11.3

1958......... 100.0 53.5 16.7 19.4 10.4

1959......... 100.0 51.3 17.3 21.6 9.7

1960......... 100.0 51.3 18.6 21.1 9.0

1961......... 100.0 51.4 20.6 19.2 8.9

19623........ 100.0 52.6 21.2 17.8 8.5

1 Consists of expenditures for (1) military electronics research, development, and procurement (exclusive of maintenance work and services), except that most research and development expenditures are excluded for the years before 1961, and (2) space electronics research, development, and procurement.

2 Includes phonograph records. Excludes color television sets.

3 Estimated.

Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.

Source: Based on estimates of the Electronic Industries Association, except that shipments of military and space products include an addition estimated by the Bureau of Labor

Statistics for space electronics expenditures by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, beginning with 1958 when the civilian space agency was established.

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Table 7. Department of Defense expenditures for military functions,1 fiscal years, 1954-63

[ In millions ]

Fiscal year ending June 30

Function

1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 19621 2 19632

Total3........................... $40,336 $35,532 $35,791 $38,439 $39,062 $41,233 $41,215 $43,227 $46,710 $47,950

Military personnel......... • • • • •....... $11,643 $11,403 $11,582 $11,409 $11,611 $11,801 $11,738 $12,085 $13,250 $13,415

Operations and maintenance............. 9,162 7,931 8,400 9,487 9,761 10,378 10,223 10,611 11,595 11,511

Procurement............................ 15,957 12,838 12,227 13,488 14,083 14,409 13,334 13,095 14,836 15,356

Aircraft. ••••••••...... ............. 9,080 8,804 7,835 8,647 8,793 7,730 6,272 5,898 6,449 5,568

Missiles. • ................. .......... 417 604 1,005 1,855 2,434 3,337 3,027 2,972 3,523 3,899

Ships........................... •••••

Ordnance, vehicles, and related equip905 944 858 842 1,105 1,491 1,744 1,801 2,049 2,308

ment ......... .................... 3,334 1,191 1,260 674 365 399 443 675 1,135 1,717

Electronics and communications........ 700 441 660 704 663 720 1,093 1,042 1,196 1,208

Other equipment........... ...........

Research, development, test, and evalu1,521 854 608 767 723 730 755 706 484 656

ation....... ......... ............... 2,187 2,261 2,101 2,406 2,504 2,866 4,710 6,131 6,039 6,650

Military construction........ ........... 1,744 1,715 2,079 1,968 1,753 1,948 1,626 1,605 1,250 1,189

Revolving and management funds.......... -210 -610 -685 -320 -651 -169 -416 -300 -260 -171

Adjustment to budget basis........... . -148 -6 86 - - - - - - -

1 Excludes military assistance, atomic energy work, civil defense, and defense-related services.

2 Estimated.

3 Totals are shown in constant 1960 dollars in appendix A, table A-2.

Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.

Source: Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Fiscal Analysis Division (FAD) 397-FY 1963 (l), Jan. 18, 1962.

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[ In millions ]

Table 8. Value of industrial and commercial electronics shipments, 1956-61

Type of equipment 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961

All shipments................... $950 $1,300 $1,380 $1,600 $1,850 $2,200

Computing, data processing, and industrial control equipment1............ $240 $415 $450 $525 $710 $980

Testing and measuring equipment........ 170 210 220 245 265 290

Landmobile, microwave, and broadcasting

equipment........................... 120 150 155 175 190 215

Other industrial and commercial products 420 525 555 655 685 715

1 Includes estimated value of leased, as well as sold, electronic equipment.

Source: Data for 1960 and 1961 from Electronic Industries Association. Data for 1956 to

1959 from the Association's Electronic Industry 1960 Fact Book, Washington, D.C., p. 23.

Table 9. Quantity and value of television and radio production,

by type of unit, 1950-61

[Quantity and total value, in thousands]

Television production1

Year Quantity Value

Total Table- Console Phonograph- Total Average

production portable combination production per set

1950... 7,463.8 2,941.6 3,820.1 702.2 $1,350,000 $181

1951... 5,384.8 2,275.9 2,774.9 334.0 956,986 178

1952... 6,096.3 2,837.5 3,038.9 219.9 1,049,000 172

1953... 7,215.8 3,224.7 3,755.3 235.8 1,230,298 171

1954... 7,346.7 4,249.3 3,011.5 85.8 1,028,540 140

1955... 7,756.5 4,439.7 3,199.8 117.0 1,071,020 138

1956... 7,387.0 4,753.8 2,556.8 75.4 938,596 127

1957... 6,399.3 3,845.8 2,433.4 120.1 832,747 130

1958... 4,920.4 2,716.9 2,068.6 134.9 667,899 136

1959... 6,349.4 3,612.6 2,567.0 169.8 896,405 141

1960... 5,708.3 3,274.3 2,211.2 222.8 825,501 145

1961... 6,177.8 3,812.2 2,135.4 230.3 835,423 135

Radio production

Quantity Value

Total

production Home Clock Portable Auto

Total

production

Average

per set

1950... (2) 7,053 (2) 1,675 4,740 (2) (2)

1951... 11,928 5,275 777 1,333 4,543 $298,439 $25

1952... 10,431 3,539 1,929 1,720 3,243 238,348 23

1953... 12,852 3 ,886 2,041 1,742 5,183 286,471 22

1954... 10,028 2,696 1,875 1,333 4,124 220,616 22

1955... 14,133 2,998 2,244 2,027 6,864 283,225 20

1956... 13,518 3,037 2,311 3,113 5,057 288,474 21

1957... 14,505 3,228 2,516 3,265 5,496 351,601 24

1956... 11,747 2,621 2,038 3,373 3,715 314,585 27

1959... 15,622 3,145 2,794 4,128 5,555 330,874 21

1960... 17,127 3,440 2,720 4,535 6,432 340,484 20

1961... 17,374 3,042 3,017 5,747 5,568 313,531 18

1 Excludes color television sets.

2 Not available.

Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.

Source: Based on estimates of the Electronic Industries Association.

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Table 10. Quantity and value of phonograph sales, by type of unit, and value

of sales of phonograph records, 1950-61

Year

Phonographs Phonograph

records

Quantity:

Total sales

Quantity (thousands0 Value of

total

sales2

(millions)

Value of total

sales2

(millions) Single

phonograph

Radiophonograph

combination1

Record

player

attachments

1950.v, (3 ) (3) (3) (3 ) $116.2 $82.0

1951... (3) (3 ) (3) (3) (3) 85.0

1952... 1,350.0 322.0 538.0 490.0 (3) 90.0

1953... 1,605.0 724.0 491.0 390.0 (3) 91.0

1954... 2,683.0 1,886.0 358.0 439.0 (3) 87.0

1955... 3,006.0 2,234.0 393.0 379.0 111.1 112.0

1956... 4,101.0 3,338.0 451.0 312.0 154.5 155.5

1957... 4,872.0 3,718.0 941.0 213.0 186.7 180.0

1958... 4,096.0 3,212.0 760.0 124.0 198.3 198.0

1959... 4,390.0 3,475.0 829.0 86.0 372.7 230.5

I960... 4,627.0 3,681.0 842.0 104.0 394.5 228.4

1961...

l

(3) 2,979.0 1,010.0 (3) (3) 244.3

1 Radio-phonograph combinations are included here rather than with radios. Televisionphonograph combinations, on the other hand, are counted with television production.

2 Sales value at factory level.

3 Not available.

Source: Based on estimates of the Electronic Industries Association.

Table 11. Value of electronic component shipments, by use as original equipment or

replacement parts, 1950-61

[Value in millions]

Year

All

components

shipped

Components shipped for use

in original equipment

Components shipped for use

as replacement parts

Amount

Percent of all

components shipped Amount

Percent of all

components shipped

1950... $1,158 $908 78.4 $250 21.6

1951... 1,261 911 72.2 350 27.8

1952... 1,730 1,330 76.9 400 23.1

1953... C1 ) C1 ) C1 ) 500 C1 )

1954... 2,008 1,358 67.6 650 32.4

1955... 2,200 1,450 65.9 750 34.1

1956... 2,280 1,430 62.7 850 37.3

1957... 2,435 1,535 63.0 900 37.0

1958... 2,325 1,465 63.0 860 37.0

1959... 2,833 1,933 68.2 900 31.8

1960... 3,054 2,154 70.5 900 29.5

1961... 3,266 2,316 70.9 950 29.1

1 Not available.

Source: Based on estimates of the Electronic Industries Association.

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Table 12. Value of electronic component shipments, by type of component, 1950-61

Type of component 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955

Value (millions)

All components shipped.. $1,158.0 $1,261.0 $1,730.0 (?) $2,008.0 $2,200.0

Tubes and semiconductors..... 461.0 473.0 604.0 (x) 708.0 800.0

Receiving tubes............ 250.0 261.0 259.1 $303.7 276.0 358.1

TV picture tubes........... 210.7 122.2 170.7 234.9 206.1 209.0

Transistors............... (x) (x) C1 2) (x) 5.1 12.3

Diodes and rectifiers...... (x) (l) C1) (x) 2 20.0 2 30.0

All others................ (?) (?) (X) (?) (X ) (X)

Capacitors.................. (x) (x) 200.0 (?) 200.0 215.0

Resistors................... (?) (?) 100.0 (?) 130.0 150.0

Transformers................ (?) C > 150.0 (?) 103.0 96.0

All other components3........ (x) (x) 676.0 (x) 867.0 939.0

Percent of total components shipped

All components shipped.. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Tubes and semiconductors...... 39.8 37.5 34.9 (?) 35.3 36.4

Receiving tubes........... 21.6 20.7 15.0 (?) 13.7 16.3

TV picture tubes........... 18.3 9.7 10.0 10.3 9.5

Transistors............... (x) (X) <t> (x) .3 .6

Diodes and rectifiers...... (x) (x) (x) 2 1.0 2 1.4

All others................ (?) (x) (X) (?) C1) (X)

Capacitors.................. (?) (?) 11.6 10.0 9.8

Resistors................... (?) (?) 5.8 (?) 6.5 6.8

Transformers................ (x) (?) 8.7 (?) 5.1 4.4

All other components3......... (x) (x) 39.1 (x) 43.2 42.7

1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961

Value (millions)

All components shipped.. $2,280.0 $2,435.0 $2,325.0 $2,833.0 $3,054.0 $3,266.0

Tubes and semiconductors..... 853.0 925.0 914.0 1,152.0 1,289.0 1,303.0

Receiving tubes........... 374.2 384.4 341.9 368.9 331.7 311.1

TV picture tubes........... 196.2 183.2 163.5 183.8 180.8 185.6

Transistors............... 37.4 69.7 112.7 222.0 301.4 299.5

Diodes and rectifiers...... 76.0 102.3 112.8 166.3 224.0 200.0

All others................ 169.2 185.4 183.1 211.0 251.1 306.8

Capacitors.................. 224.0 225.0 218.0 267.0 295.0 338.0

Resistors................... 175.0 171.0 158.0 194.0 227.0 274.0

Transformers................ 90.0 110.0 102.0 129.0 136.0 153.0

All other components3........ 938.0 1,004.0 933.0 1,091.0 1,107.0 1,198.0

Percent of total components shipped

All components shipped.. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Tubes and semiconductors..... 37.4 38.0 39.3 40.7 42.2 39.9

Receiving tubes........... 16.4 15.8 14.7 13.0 10.9 9.5

TV picture tubes.......... 8.6 7.5 7.0 6.5 5.9 5.7

Transistors • • • ........ . 1.6 2.9 4.8 7.8 9.9 9.2

Diodes and rectifiers...... 3.3 4.2 4.9 5.9 7.3 6.1

All others................ 7.4 7.6 7.9 7.5 8.2 9.5

Capacitors.................. 9.8 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.7 10.4

Resistors................... 7.7 7.0 6.8 6.8 7.4 8.4

Transformers................ 3.9 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.7

All other components3........ 41.1 41.2 40.1 38.5 36.3 36.7

1 Not available.

2 Includes only germanium and silicon diodes and rectifiers.

3 Includes such components as speakers, tuners, antennas, relays, chassis, printed circuit boards, and filters.

Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.

Source: Based on estimates of the Electronic Industries Association.

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CHAPTER 3. ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS OF

ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT

EMPLOYMENT AND SHIPMENTS ESTIMATES AND PROTECTIONS

T his c h a p te r p re s e n ts e s tim a te s of e le c ­ tro n ic s m an u factu rin g em ploym ent fo r 1958 to 1961, and p ro je c tio n s of such em p lo y ­ m en t fo r 1970. The m ethodology u se d to d e riv e th e se e s tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s is su m m a riz e d b rie fly at the end of th is c h a p te r and d e s c rib e d in d e ta il in appen­ dix A.

The e s tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s a re show n in ta b le 13 and c h a rts 1 and 2 fo r em p lo y ­ m en t, and tab le 14 fo r sh ip m e n ts. E stim a te d em p lo y m en t in e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g ro s e fro m 610,000 w o rk e rs in 1958 to 778,000 in 1961, and is ex p ected to re a c h n e a rly 1.1 m illio n w o rk e rs by 1970. The annual grow th ra te p ro je c te d fo r the r e ­ m a in d e r of the 1960's (3.8 p e rc e n t) is co n ­ sid e ra b ly lo w er th an th at w hich o c c u rre d b etw een 1958 and 1961 (8 .4 p e rc e n t), c h iefly b e c a u se the in d u s try 1 s grow th ra te is e x ­ p e c te d to sla c k e n a fte r 1965 owing to an a n tic ip a te d le v elin g off in m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic e x p e n d itu re s.

V alue of e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts, in co n ­ sta n t I960 d o lla rs , ro s e fro m $8.2 b illio n in 1958 to $10.8 b illio n in 1961, and is ex p ected to re a c h n e a rly $20 b illio n by 1970. A s in the c a se of em ploym ent, the annual grow th ra te p ro je c te d fo r the r e s t of the 1960's (6.8 p e rc e n t) is lo w er th an th a t w hich o c c u rre d betw een 1958 and 1961 (11.3 p e rc e n t),81 and the la r g e r p a rt of the p ro je c te d in c re a s e is ex p ected to tak e p lace by 1965. The m o re ra p id exp an sio n p ro je c te d fo r sh ip m en ts than fo r em ploym ent re fle c ts an ad ju stm e n t fo r p ro je c te d in c re a s e s in sh ip m e n ts p e r w o rk e r of ro ughly 2.9 p e r ­ ce n t p e r annum co m pounded.8*

si See table 14, footnote 3. 32 This adjustment was varied for each of the four major 

product categories to reflect projected differences among them 

in technological change, automation, etc. The adjustment rates 

were so calculated, however, that their weighted average approximated a per annum increase of 2.9 percent compounded, equal 

to the estimated rate of annual increase over the 1947-60 

period in manufacturing output per man-hour. (Rate of annual

A s sta te d e a r lie r in the r e p o r t,88 the e s tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s of th is study r e ­ f e r to e le c tro n ic s em p lo y m en t and sh ip ­ m en ts in m an u factu rin g in d u s trie s , and exclude e le c tro n ic s a c tiv ity in the A rm e d F o rc e s , the F e d e ra l G ov ern m en t, u n iv e r­ s itie s , arid n o n p ro fit r e s e a r c h c e n te rs . E s tim a te s of the n u m b er of e le c tro n ic s w o rk e rs in the A rm e d F o rc e s a re not a v a ila b le , but at le a s t 55,000 w o rk e rs a re e s tim a te d to have b een em ployed in la te 1960 in e le c tro n ic s w ork in the F e d e ra l G ov ern m en t, u n iv e rs itie s , and n o n p ro fit r e s e a r c h c e n te r s . The e le c tro n ic s w ork done in th e se o rg a n iz a tio n s c o n s is ts c h iefly of re s e a r c h , dev elo p m en t, and the n e g o tia ­ tio n and a d m in is tra tio n of c o n tra c ts .84

The re m a in d e r of th is se c tio n of the c h a p te r d e s c rib e s em p lo y m en t and shipm ent tre n d s and outlook in each of the m a jo r e le c tro n ic p ro d u ct c a te g o rie s .

M ilitary and Space Products. The w ork fo rc e engaged in m an u factu rin g m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts is ex p ected to grow by 176,000 w o rk e rs betw een 1961 and 1970, fro m 283,000 to 459,000. T his *34

increase from Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates in U.S.

Department of Labor News Release 4698, “ Output per Man-Hour in the Private Economy in I960,** Aug. 18, 1961, p. 2.) The 1947-60 annual increase in manufacturing output per man-hour

was used as the best available approximation of the annual in­ crease in shipments per employee in electronics manufacturing, despite differences between the concepts of output per man-hour

and shipments per employee. 33 See footnote 5. That footnote lists the exclusions from the 

report in terms of SIC industries. 34 Sources for this employment estimate are few. A survey conducted by the Electronic Industries Association in late 1960 

indicated that 22,000 engineers and scientists were employed in electronics R&D in these organizations--13,000 in the Federal Government and 9,000 in universities and nonprofit research 

centers. A survey sponsored by the National Science Foundation indicated that about 40 percent of the work force in research 

installations are engineers and scientists. (See Nonprofit Organizations —Expenditures and Manpower—1957, National Science 

Foundation (NSF 61-37), May 1961, p. 31.) Applying this 40 per­ cent assumption to the estimate of 22,000 engineers and scientists derived from the EIA survey, a resultant total of 55,000 

workers is obtained. This estimate is probably low since, in 

addition to its R&D activities, the Federal Government employs 

large numbers of administrative and clerical workers to negotiate and supervise electronics contracts.

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grow th r e p r e s e n ts m o re th an h alf (57 p e r ­ cent) of the em ploym ent ex p an sio n p ro je c te d fo r the e n tire e le c tro n ic s in d u stry . The 1961-70 ra te of em ploym ent grow th fo r m ilita ry and sp ace p ro d u c ts is ex p ected to be m o re ra p id th an th a t fo r any o th e r m a jo r e le c tro n ic p ro d u ct c a te g o ry , although m o st of the p ro je c te d in c re a s e w ill o c c u r b e fo re 1965. By 1970, the w ork fo rc e in m ilita ry and space p ro d u c ts is p ro je c te d at 42 p e r ­ cen t of to ta l e le c tro n ic s em ploym ent, c o m ­ p a re d w ith 36 p e rc e n t in 1961. (See tab le 13 and c h a rts 1 and 2).

The c o n s ta n t-d o lla r value of m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts is ex p ected to n e a rly double betw een 1961 and 1970 (from $5.5 b illio n to $10.7 b illio n --ta b le 14). A s w ith em ploym ent, the a n ticip ated grow th r a te in sh ip m en ts fo r th is p ro d u ct c a te g o ry is h ig h e r th an th a t fo r any o th e r m a jo r p ro d u ct c a te g o ry but m o st of the ex p an sio n is ex p ected to o c c u r b e fo re 1965.

S hipm ents of m ilita ry and space e le c ­ tro n ic p ro d u c ts depend a lm o st e n tire ly upon e x p e n d itu re s fo r e le c tro n ic s re s e a r c h , d ev elo p m en t, and p ro c u re m e n t by the D e­ p a rtm e n t of D efense and NASA. The D e p a rt­ m en t of D efense acco u n ts fo r m o st of th e se e x p e n d itu re s --96 p e rc e n t in fis c a l 1961 and an ex p ected 86 p e rc e n t fo r fis c a l 1970.85 N ASA's e le c tro n ic s spending, b e ­ ginning fro m a m uch s m a lle r b a se , is ex p ected to in c re a s e re la tiv e ly m uch fa s te r th an th a t of the D e p a rtm e n t of D efense. B etw een the fis c a l y e a rs 1963 and 1970, N A SA 's e le c tro n ic s ex p e n d itu re s a re ex ­ p e cted to grow n e a rly th re e fo ld as ag a in st an a n tic ip a te d 50 p e rc e n t in c re a s e in DOD ex p en d itu re s . 86

M ajor fa c to rs ex p ected to b oost m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic s spending d uring the 1960*3 include (1) the grow ing e le c tro n ic so p h istic a tio n and co m p lex ity of not only s p a c e c ra ft but a lso m is s ile s , a ir c r a f t, and o th e r d efen se ite m s ; (2) the n a tio n a l e ffo rt to co m p lete a m anned lu n a r exped itio n b e fo re 1970; and (3) the in c re a s in g size and im p o rta n c e of the m ilita ry sp ace p r o ­ g ra m . It is ex p ected th a t e le c tro n ic s ex- 356

35 See appendix A, table A-2. The projections for military and 

space expenditures shown in table A-2 and elsewhere in this 

report reflect the assumptions used, conversations with industry 

and government officials, published information bearing on the 

subject, projections of historical trends, etc. The projections 

might be different, of course, if based on other assumptions or 

other interpretations of the sources available.

36 See appendix A, table A-2.

p e n d itu re s of the D e p a rtm e n t of D efense w ill slow down in th e ir ra te of grow th d uring the la s t h alf of the 1960*s, a s som e of the Nation* s la rg e m ilita ry e le c tro n ic p ro g ra m s m ove beyond th e ir r e s e a r c h , d e­ velo p m en t, and m a jo r p ro d u c tio n sta g e s, and a lso th a t NASA’s e x p e n d itu re s w ill le v e l off d uring the m id - I9 6 0 's.

Industrial and Com m ercial Products. E m ­ p loym ent in the m an u factu re of in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts is e x ­ p ected to r is e by 60,000 w o rk e rs b etw een 1961 and 1970, fro m 126,000 to 186,000. T his annual grow th ra te of 4.5 p e rc e n t com pounded w ill be slig h tly h ig h e r than th a t fo r the e le c tro n ic s in d u stry a s a whole o v e r the sam e p e rio d , although m uch lo w er th an th a t fo r the in d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l field betw een 1958 and 1961. By 1970, e m ­ ploym ent in the in d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l s e c ­ to r is p ro je c te d at 17 p e rc e n t of to ta l e le c ­ tro n ic s em ploym ent, c o m p a re d w ith 16 p e rc e n t in 1961. (See ta b le 13 and c h a rts 1 and 2.)

T his ex p an sio n in em ploym ent is b a se d on an a n tic ip a te d grow th in sh ip m en ts of in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic p ro d ­ u cts, fro m $2.2 b illio n in 1961 to $4.1 b illio n in 1970 (table 14). A v a rie ty of fa c to rs a re ex p ected to c o n trib u te to th is a n tic ip a te d grow th.

R ising le v e ls of p opulation and r e a l in ­ com e p e r c a p ita p ro je c te d fo r the 1960's a re ex p ected to stim u la te la r g e r ex p en d i­ tu re s fo r b u sin e ss p lan t and equipm ent, including in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l e le c ­ tro n ic eq u ip m en t. E le c tro n ic d e v ic e s a re ex p ected to a ssu m e in c re a sin g im p o rta n c e , not only in m an u factu rin g but a lso in such d iv e rs e in d u s tria l a c tiv itie s a s m ining, the s e rv ic e in d u s trie s , and w h o lesale and r e ta il tra d e . A u tom ation s y ste m s, h e av ily d epend­ ent on e le c tro n ic d e v ic e s, w ill be in s ta lle d in grow ing n u m b e rs in A m e ric a n in d u stry . E le c tro n ic c o n tro l of p ro d u c t qu ality , c o lo r, quan tity , and o th e r c h a r a c te r is tic s w ill b e ­ com e m o re com m on in in d u s trie s such as c h e m ic a ls, p e tro le u m refin in g , b e v e ra g e s, and d a iry p ro d u c ts. In m etalw o rk in g , g ro w ­ ing n u m b e rs of p ro d u c tio n m ach in es w ill be o p e ra te d a u to m a tic a lly th ro u g h the u se of e le c tro n ic c o n tro ls . The ato m ic e n e rg y in d u stry , w hich w ill need in c re a s in g am ounts of e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts such as re a c to r sen sin g c o n tro ls , G eig er c o u n te rs, and d o s im e te rs , ex e m p lifie s grow th in d u s trie s ex p ected to stim u la te in d u s tria l e le c tro n ic s dem and durin g the 19 6 0 's.

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C ontinuance of the population sh ift to the su b u rb s should r e s u lt in la r g e r n u m b e rs of p o in t-to -p o in t m icro w av e in sta lla tio n s to fa c ilita te co m m u n icatio n s b etw een c e n tra l c ity h e a d q u a rte rs --s u c h as downtown b an k s, d e p a rtm e n t s to re s , and w a re h o u s e s --a n d th e ir su b u rb an b ra n c h e s . In c re a sin g u se of in te rc o m m u n ic a tio n sy ste m s betw een of­ fic e s and p ro d u ctio n d e p a rtm e n ts is e x ­ p e c te d . P a s t tre n d s in d icate th a t the u se of m obile rad io sy ste m s w ill be in grow ing dem and by police and fire d e p a rtm e n ts, highw ay m ain ten an ce s e rv ic e s , tax icab c o m p an ies, am bulance s e rv ic e s , f o r e s tr y c o n se rv a tio n c re w s, and o th e r u s e r s . The dem and fo r a ir c r a f t e le c tro n ic s a p p a ra tu s, such a s r a d a r and co m m u n icatio n sy ste m s, is a lso ex p ected to r is e . The n u m b er of a ctiv e c iv il a ir c r a f t in the c o u n try by 1970 is p ro je c te d at about 105,000, o n e -th ird h ig h e r than the n u m b er in 1961,87 and the am ount of e le c tro n ic equipm ent p e r a i r ­ c r a ft w ill continue to grow .

P e rh a p s the m a jo r grow th ite m in the in d u s tria l e le c tro n ic s sp e c tru m is the co m ­ p u te r. C om puting and d ata p ro c e ssin g eq uipm ent a re ex p ected to ex p e rie n c e a ste a d ily ris in g dem and during the r e s t of th is decade fro m fa c to rie s , in su ra n c e co m ­ p a n ie s, b anks, r e s e a r c h la b o ra to rie s , and o th e r s o u rc e s . V ery re c e n t dev elo p m en ts in clu d e s e lf-s e rv ic e co m p u ter c e n te rs , c o m p u te rs to p ro g ra m o th e r c o m p u ter op­ e ra tio n s , and c o m p u te rs fo r u se in c la s s ­ ro o m s, lib r a r ie s , and m ed ical d iag n o stic 

c e n te rs .

Consumer Products. E m ploym ent in the m an u factu re of c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic p ro d ­ u c ts is expected to g row by 30,000 w o rk e rs betw een 1961 and 1970, fro m 89,000 to 119,000. The p ro je c te d annual grow th ra te of 3.3 p e rc e n t com pounded is only slig h tly lo w e r th an th a t fo r the e le c tro n ic s in d u stry a s a w hole, and em p loym ent in the co n ­ s u m e r e le c tro n ic s fie ld w ill account fo r ro u g h ly the sam e p ro p o rtio n of em ploym ent in to ta l e le c tro n ic s m a n u fa c tu rin g --11 p e r- c e n t- - in 1970 a s in 1961. (See tab le 13 and c h a rts 1 and 2.)

Shipm ents of c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic p ro d ­ u c ts a re ex p ected to r is e fro m $2.1 b illio n in 1961 to $3.5 b illio n in 1970 (table 14). T his ex p ectatio n is b a se d on p ro je c tio n s of (1) in c re a s e s in population and r e a l

s* Data for 1961 from FAA Statistical Handbook of Civil 

Aviation, 1961 edition (Federal Aviation Agency), p. 35.

incom e p e r c a p ita , (2) in c re a s e s in the n um ­ b e r of w om en w o r k e r s ,38 w hich a re exp ected to c re a te m o re dem and fo r la b o r saving household equipm ent, m uch of it e le c tro n ic , and (3) in c re a s e s in the n u m b er of new fa m ily fo rm a tio n s, w ith expanding dem and fo r new h o m es and fo r e le c tro n ic h o u se ­ hold equ ip m en t. The ra te of new fa m ily fo rm a tio n s is ex p ected to r is e e sp e c ia lly ra p id ly a fte r the m id - I960*s ,89 as c h ild re n b o rn d uring the p o stw a r p e rio d of the m id- 1940!s re a c h m a rria g e a b le ag e. L a rg ely b e c a u se of th is , the grow th r a te in sh ip ­ m en ts and em ploym ent fo r c o n su m e r e le c ­ tro n ic s is ex p ected to be h ig h e r du rin g the second h alf of the 1960!s th an d uring the f ir s t h alf.

T e le v isio n s e ts , ra d io s, and phonographs a re ex p ected to continue a s the p rin c ip a l c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic ite m s d uring the r e ­ m a in d e r of the 1960, s. In c re a s e s a re a n tic ­ ip ated in the n u m b er of h o m es w ith te le v i­ sio n s e ts and w ith m o re th an one se t, and in the n u m b er of te le v isio n s e ts th a t need re p la c e m e n t. The dem and fo r c o lo r te le ­ v isio n should a lso in c re a s e a s the c o st of such s e ts is re d u ced , a w id er v a rie ty of m odels b ec o m e s a v a ila b le , c o lo r tr a n s m is ­ sion and re c e p tio n a re im p ro v ed , and m o re p ro g ra m s a re te le c a s t in c o lo r.

R isin g R&D e x p e n d itu re s by in d u stry and g o v ern m en t a re ex p ected to re s u lt in m any new and im p ro v ed c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts. R e­ c en tly developed ite m s include F M -s te re o ra d io b ro a d c a stin g and re c e p tio n equipm ent; co m p act r a d a r s , ra d io -te le p h o n e s, and ra d io d ire c tio n fin d e rs fo r p le a s u re b o ats; e le c tro n ic to y s, such a s re a d y -to -a s s e m b le ra d io s and in te rc o m m u n ic a tio n sy ste m s; tr a n s is to r iz e d , b a tte ry -o p e ra te d te le v isio n se ts ; and tr a n s is to r iz e d , p o rta b le tap e r e ­ c o r d e r s . M any o th e r c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts a re in v a rio u s sta g e s of d ev elo p ­ m en t. Some m ay be m a rk e te d c o m m e rc ia lly b efo re 1970 w hile o th e rs m ay not becom e c o m m e rc ia lly fe a sib le u n til a fte r th at d ate.

Components. E m ploym ent in the m an u fac­ tu re of e le c tro n ic com ponents is ex p ected to grow by 40,000 w o rk e rs betw een 1961 and 1970, fro m 280,000 to 320,000. The *59

88 Interim Revised Projections of U.S. Labor Force. 1965*75 

(U.S. Department of Labor, BLS Special Labor Force Report 24, 

1962), p. 4. 59 “ Illustrative Projections of the Number of Households and Families: 1960 to 1980,’* Current Population Reports, Series 

P-20, No. 90, Series B estimates (U.S. Bureau of the Census), 

P. 1.

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annual grow th ra te of 1.5 p e rc e n t co m ­ pounded is the lo w est grow th ra te p ro je c te d fo r any m a jo r p ro d u ct c a te g o ry , and is m uch lo w er th an th a t fo r com ponents b e ­ tw een 1958 and 1961. The c a te g o ry 1 s sh a re of to ta l e le c tro n ic s em ploym ent is expected to d ro p fro m 36 p e rc e n t in 1961 to 30 p e r ­ cen t in 1970. (See tab le 13 and c h a rts 1 and 2.)

S e v e ra l re a s o n s ex p lain why em ploym ent in the com ponents c a te g o ry is ex p ected to g row le s s ra p id ly d uring the 1960*s th an em ploym ent in the e le c tro n ic en d -p ro d u c t c a te g o rie s , even though the dem and fo r com ponents re fle c ts the dem and fo r end p ro d u c ts. One re a s o n is th a t sh ip m en ts p e r w o rk e r in com ponents m an u factu rin g is ex p ected to r is e f a s te r th an the in d u s try a v e ra g e . A second is th a t the ra te of co m ­ ponent re p la c e m e n t a p p e a rs to be d e c r e a s ­ ing w ith the grow ing u se of tr a n s is to r s and o th e r so lid sta te com ponents and the d e­ clin in g re la tiv e im p o rta n c e of e le c tro n tu b e s ,40 and th is d e c re a s e is ex p ected to co n tin u e.41 A th ird re a s o n is found in the in c re a s in g v e r s a tility and efficien cy of co m p o n en ts, w hich is ex p ected to lo w er the p ro p o rtio n w hich com ponents v alue r e p r e ­ se n ts of to ta l en d -eq u ip m en t v alu e. T his is illu s tr a te d by the fa c t th a t the p ro je c te d annual grow th ra te of 5.3 p e rc e n t co m ­ pounded b etw een 1961 and 1970 in value of com ponents sh ip m en ts (table 14) is le s s th a n th o se p ro je c te d fo r the m a jo r end- p ro d u c t c a te g o rie s .

The d ecade ahead w ill undoubtedly see m a rk e d ch an g es in the n a tu re of the co m ­ po n en ts fie ld . One m a jo r tre n d h as b een in the d ire c tio n of m ic ro m in ia tu riz a tio n o r m ic ro e le c tro n ic s , th at is , of e x tre m e ly sm a ll u n its m e a su ra b le in m illio n th s of an inch, w ith ex ceed in g ly low pow er re q u ir e ­ m e n ts. A lthough s p u rre d ch iefly by n eed s of the n a tio n a l d efen se and sp ace p ro g ra m s , m ic ro m in ia tu riz a tio n p ro b ab ly w ill find in c re a s in g ap p lic a tio n s in in d u s tria l-c o m ­ m e r c ia l e le c tro n ic s and even in co n su m er p ro d u c ts durin g the y e a rs ahead.

M ost m ic ro m in ia tu riz e d c irc u its involve no d is c re te co m p o n en ts, such as tr a n s is to r s

40 Projected employment in tubemaking will be lower in 1970 

than in 1961 and about the same as in 1958. Between 1958 and 

1961, employment in the manufacture of components other than 

tubes rose about four times more rapidly than employment in 

the manufacture of tubes. ^Shipments value of replacement parts equaled 37 percent 

of shipments value for all components in 1958, 29 percent in 1961, and is projected at 27 percent for 1970 (table 14).

and d io d es. By e lim in atin g such p a r ts and the co n n ectio n s b etw een th em , re lia b ility is in c re a s e d w hile space and p ow er r e ­ q u ire m e n ts a re d e c re a s e d . E x am p les of m ic ro c irc u its a re " se m ic o n d u c to r in te ­ g ra te d " and "th in film " c ir c u its . S em i­ con d u cto r in te g ra te d m ic ro c irc u its a re fa b ric a te d on o r w ithin a sem ic o n d u c to r slab by tech n iq u es such as oxide m ask in g , alloying, d iffusing, m e ta l d ep o sitin g , and su rfa c e shaping. In th in film m ic ro c irc u its , th in m e ta llic film s a re e v a p o ra te d on a g la s s s u b s tra te o r o th e r in su la tin g b a se to function a s r e s is to r s , c a p a c ito rs , and o th e r c irc u it e le m e n ts.

D esp ite the re c e n tn e s s of d ev elo p m en ts in m ic ro m in ia tu riz a tio n , e n g in e e rs and s c ie n tis ts a r e a lre a d y looking to w ard the nano m in ia tu riz a tio n of e le c tro n ic com po­ n e n ts --" n a n o " in th is c a se r e f e r rin g to m e a su re m e n ts in b illio n th s of an in ch .

METHODOLOGY FOR DERIVING EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS

To d e riv e the em p lo y m en t fig u re s fo r 1958 to 1961, the e s tim a te d valu e of to ta l sh ip m en ts and sh ip m en ts p e r em p lo y ee, in co n sta n t I960 d o lla rs , w ere f i r s t developed. By dividing the sh ip m en ts e s tim a te s by the s h ip m e n ts-p e r-e m p lo y e e e s tim a te s , e m ­ p loym ent e s tim a te s w ere o b tain ed . The e s tim a te s w ere m ade by m a jo r p ro d u ct c a te g o ry a s w ell a s fo r the in d u s try a s a w hole.

The sh ip m en ts e s tim a te s w ere b a se d on d ata of the E le c tro n ic In d u s trie s A s s o c ia ­ tio n (E IA ).42 The s h ip m e n ts-p e r-e m p lo y e e e s tim a te s w ere b a se d on d ata fro m the 1958 U.S. C en su s of M an u factu res, and fo r 1959 to 1961 w ere ad ju ste d to re fle c t e s t i ­ m ated annual in c re a s e s in sh ip m en ts p e r em p lo y ee.

The e s tim a te d p e rc e n t w hich e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts w ere of to ta l sh ip m en ts w as c a lc u la te d fo r each SIC 4 - d ig it in d u s try w hich shipped at le a s t $25 m illio n in

42 These data were selected for use in this study because of 

their comprehensive and detailed nature. They were prepared 

by the EIA’s Marketing Services Department, on the basis of 

recurrent reports from cooperating respondents and periodic 

surveys of electronics manufacturers, supplemented by material from the Bureau of the Census and the Business and Defense Services Administration, both of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

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e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts in 1958. T his p e rc e n t w as applied to to ta l em ploym ent in the in ­ d u s try to d e riv e e stim a te d em ploym ent; th is step involved the a ssu m p tio n th a t e m ­ p loym ent in the m an u factu re of e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts m ay be d istin g u ish e d w ith r e a ­ sonable a c c u ra c y fro m n o n e le c tro n ic e m ­ p loym ent by p ro ra tin g to ta l em ploym ent a c c o rd in g to p ro p o rtio n s of e le c tro n ic s and n o n e le c tro n ic s sh ip m e n ts. V alue of e le c ­ tro n ic s sh ip m en ts p e r e le c tro n ic s em ployee could th en be d e riv e d fo r 1958, by re la tin g e s tim a te d e le c tro n ic s em ploym ent to e le c ­ tro n ic s sh ip m e n ts. To develop c o m p arab le sh ip m en t s-p e r-e m p lo y e e e s tim a te s fo r 1959, I960, and 1961, the 1958 sh ip m e n ts- p e r-e m p lo y e e e s tim a te s w ere ad ju ste d to tak e account of changes in sh ip m en ts p e r w o rk e r.

The sam e b a sic m ethod w as u se d to d e ­ riv e em ploym ent p ro je c tio n s fo r 1970, th a t is , sh ip m en ts p ro je c tio n s w ere divided by sh ip m en t s-p e r-e m p lo y e e p ro je c tio n s . The d o lla r p ro je c tio n s w ere sta te d in te r m s of the sam e I960 p ric e le v e l as w ere the 1958- 61 d o lla r e s tim a te s .

The sh ip m e n ts-p e r-e m p lo y e e p ro je c tio n s w ere b a se d on th o se fo r 1958 to 1961 and w ere a d ju ste d to tak e into account p ro je c te d ch an g es to 1970 in sh ip m en ts p e r w o rk e r. The sh ip m en ts p ro je c tio n s w ere d e riv e d

th ro u g h p ro je c tio n s and c o rre la tio n s of v a rio u s h is to r ic a l s e r ie s , d e sc rib e d in d e ta il in appendix A.

The p ro je c tio n s should be view ed only as in d ic a tio n s of g e n e ra l m ag n itu d es and d i­ re c tio n s of change. Some of the h is to ric a l s e r ie s upon w hich th ey a re b a se d do not extend b ack m any y e a rs , and even if th ey did, m ight be an u n c e rta in guide to the fu tu re in th is ra p id ly changing fie ld . The p ro je c tio n s p ro b a b ly would be d iffe re n t if the m a jo r a ssu m p tio n s u se d in d eriv in g th em had b een d iffe re n t.

T hese m a jo r assu m p tio n s co n cern in g the re m a in d e r of the 1960*s a re the follow ing: (1) The in stitu tio n s and fu n d am en tal e c o ­ nom ic s tru c tu re of the U nited S tates w ill not change sig n ifican tly ; (2) high le v e ls of econom ic a c tiv ity and em p lo y m en t w ill be m ain tain ed though te m p o ra ry re c e s s io n s m ay o c c u r; (3) sc ie n tific and tec h n o lo g ic a l ad v an ces w ill continue a t a ra p id ra te , in ­ cluding the develo p m en t of new and im p ro v ed w eapons and sp ace s y ste m s; (4) n e ith e r w ar n o r su b sta n tia l d is a rm a m e n t w ill o c c u r, and the N ation w ill continue to s triv e fo r a d efen se c a p a b ility su fficien t to d e te r po ­ te n tia l a g g r e s s o r s ; and (5) th e a c h iev em en t of a m anned lu n a r ex p ed itio n b e fo re 1970 w ill continue a s a n atio n al goal and a s the m a jo r ele m e n t in o u r c iv ilia n space 

p ro g ra m .

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Table 13. Employment in electronics manufacturing, by product category, estimates for

1958-61 and projections for 1970

Product category Employment (thousands) Percent change p er annum compounded

Percent of to t a l employment

1958 1959 1960 1961 1970 1958-61 1961-70 1958 1961 1970

A ll c a te g o rie s ................ 609.8 689.4 734.1 777.7 1,084.5 8.4 3 .8 100.0 100.0 100.0

M ilita ry and space p ro d u cts. I n d u s tr ia l and commercial 245.6 256.2 270.7 283.0 458.7 4 .8 5.5 40.3 36.4 42.3

p ro d u c ts..................................... 86.3 96.8 109.4 126.0 186.5 13.4 4.5 14.2 16.2 17.2 Consumer p ro d u c ts...................... 72.7 89.9 93.3 88.7 119.2 6 .8 3.3 11.9 11.4 11.0 Components..................................... 205.2 246.5 260.7 280.0 319.9 10.9 1.5 33.7 36.0 29.5 1. Tubes................................. 79.6 89.2 87.6 88.8 80.0 3 .7 -1.2 13.1 11.4 7.4 2. Other th an tu b e s......... 125.6 157.3 173.1 191.2 239.9 15.0 2.5 20.6 24.6 22.1

1. O rig in al eq u ip m en t... 129.5 168.1 183.8 198.6 232.5 15.3 1.8 21.2 25.5 21.4 2. Replacement p a r t s . . . . 75.7 78.4 76.9 81.4 87.4 2 .4 .8 12.4 10.5 8.1

Note: Because o f rounding, sums of in d iv id u a l item s may not equal t o ta ls .

Source: E stim ates and p ro je c tio n s developed by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau o f Labor S t a t i s t i c s .

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Chart 1. Employment In Electronics Manufacturing

Thousands of Employees

1100

Estimates 1958-61, and Projections 1970

1000

900

Consumer Products

Industrial and Commercial Products

Components

M ilitary and Space Products

1958 1959 1960 1961

Thousands of Employees

1) "

1100

1000

900

M

800

700

600

500 1 '

400

-

300

-

200

- 100

0

1970

Chart 2. Employment Increases in Electronics Manufacturing

Estimates 1958-61, and Projections 1961-70

Percent Employment Increase Per Annum

Compounded, 1958-61

Percent Employment Increase Per Annum

Compounded, 1961-70

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Military and Space

Products

Industrial and Commercial

Products

TOTAL ELECTRONICS

EMPLOYMENT

Consumer Products

Components

Digitized 

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Table 14. Value of electronics shipments in constant 1960 dollars, by product category, estimates for

1958-61 and projections for 1970

Product category

Shipments (in b illio n s o f 1960 d o lla rs) Percent change p e r 

annum compounded Percent of a l l shipments

1958 1959 1960 1961 1970 1958-61 1961-70 1958 1961 1970

A ll e le c tro n ic s s h ip ­ m ents2 ............................. $8.18 $9.16 $9.95 $10.75 $19.80 3 11.3 3 6 .8 100.0 100.0 100.0

M ilita ry and space p ro d u c ts. . 4.43 4.72 5.10 5.49 10.70 7 .4 7 .7 54.2 51.1 54.0 In d u s tr ia l and com m ercial... p ro d u c ts....................................... 1.38 1.59 1.85 2.20 4.10 16.8 7.2 16.9 20.5 20.7 Consumer p ro d u c ts........................ 1.55 1.97 2.10 2.06 3.50 9 .9 6 .0 18.9 19.2 17.7 Components....................................... 2.21 2.77 3.05 3.44 5.49 15.9 5.3 — — - -

O rig in al equipment2 . . . . . . 1.39 1.89 2.15 2.44 3.99 20.6 5.6 ( 2 ) ( 2 ) ( 2 ) Replacement p a r t s .............. .82 .88 .90 1.00 1.50 6 .8 4 .6 10.0 9.3 7.6

o 1 Shipment e stim ates f o r 1958-61 are in co n stan t 1960 d o lla rs and to th a t ex te n t d if f e r from th e c u rre n t-d o lla r e s t i ­ mates in ta b le s 6, 8, 11, and 12.

2 The value o f components used in o rig in a l equipment i s not included in t o t a l shipment value in o rd er to avoid d u p li­ c a tio n , sin c e o riginal-equipm ent components are alread y counted in th e value o f th e end equipment o f which they are a p a r t. See a ls o fo o tn o te 3. 3 These p e r annum r a te s o f change were computed from t o t a l shipments estim ates which include components used as o rig ­ in a l equipment, and n o t from th e unduplicated t o t a l shipments estim ates shown in th e ta b le . This was done to perm it a more v a lid comparison w ith the p er annum growth ra te s shown fo r employment in ta b le 13.

Note: Because o f rounding, sums o f in d iv id u a l item s may n o t equal to t a l s .

Source: E stim ates and p ro je c tio n s developed by U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor S t a t i s t i c s .

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CHAPTER 4. OCCUPATIONAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK IN ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING

NONPRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION WORKERS

Two outstanding fe a tu re s of the o ccu p a­ tio n a l s tru c tu re in e le c tro n ic s m a n u fa c tu r­ ing a r e (1) a tre n d to w ard in c re a s e s in the re la tiv e size of the n o n production w ork fo rc e , and (2) the e x iste n c e of m a rk e d d if­ fe re n c e s in o ccu p atio n al d istrib u tio n s am ong the in d u s try 1 s m a jo r p ro d u ct c a te g o rie s .

N onproduction w o rk e rs --e n g in e e rs and o th e r te c h n ic a l w o rk e rs , a d m in istra tiv e and ex ecu tiv e p e rso n n e l, and c le r ic a l and ste n o g ra p h ic e m p lo y e e s --a re ex p ected to acco u n t fo r n e a rly h alf (48 p e rc e n t) of to ta l e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g em ploym ent by 1970 (table 15). T hey re p re s e n te d an e s ti­ m a te d 40 p e rc e n t of such em p loym ent in 1961, 38 p e rc e n t in 1958, and only 19 p e r ­ cen t in 1950.48 44 G row th during the 1960*s in the re la tiv e siz e of the n o n production w ork fo rc e is p ro je c te d fo r each of the e le c tro n ic p ro d u ct c a te g o rie s , and is e x ­ p e c te d to be e s p e c ia lly ra p id in the c a te ­ g o rie s of m ilita ry -s p a c e and in d u s tria l- c o m m e rc ia l p ro d u c ts and of e le c tro n tu b e s .* 45

4s The 1950 percentage is based on different data from those 

in table 15 and is not precisely comparable, but it helps to provide a rough order of magnitude for the change since 1950, The 1950 estimate is based on information in “ Expansion in Elec­ tronics Employment,“ Monthly Labor Review, February 1952, p. 151, and “ The Effect of the Defense Program on Employment Outlook in Electronics Manufacturing,** Occupational Outlook 

Handbook, Supplement No. 15, May 1951. 44 For U.S. manufacturing as a whole, in comparison, nonpro­ duction workers represented a sm aller and less rapidly expanding part of the work force: 26 percent in 1961, 25 percent in 1958, and 18 percent in 1950. (Data for 1961 from Employment and Earnings, June 1962; data for 1958 and 1950 from Employ- ment and Earnings Statistics for the United States, 1909-60 

<BLS Bulletin 1312,1961). 45 The methodology used to derive the estimates and projections in table 15 is described in detail in appendix A. The estimates were developed from statistics of nonproduction and 

production workers published monthly by the Bureau of Labor 

Statistics in its Employment and Earnings series. Since these figures are published by SIC group, they had to be converted to 

the product categories of table 15; this was done by means of 

procedures described in appendix A. Because of the form in 

which the BLS data are available, estimates for the m ilitary- space and industrial-commercial product categories could be 

developed only as a combined group.

The ra tio of non p ro d u ctio n to p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs v a r ie s w idely b etw een m ilita ry - space and in d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l e le c ­ tro n ic s on the one hand (52 to 48 in 1961) and the c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts and com ponents fie ld s on the o th e r (each w ith a ra tio of 27 to 73 in 1961-- ta b le 15). M an ufacturing p ro c e s s e s in m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic s , and to a l e s s e r ex ten t in in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic s , involve a g re a t d eal of R&D w o rk and low -volum e p ro d u c ­ tio n of c u sto m -m a d e end p ro d u c ts. In the c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts and com ponents fie ld s, c o n v e rse ly , m an u factu rin g p r o c e s s e s tend to be of an a s s e m b ly lin e, m a ss p ro d u ctio n 

n a tu re .

The tre n d to w ard grow th in the re la tiv e size of the n o n p ro d u ctio n w ork fo rc e is due to s e v e ra l f a c to rs . One is the grow ing im ­ p o rta n c e of R&D w ork and low -volum e p r o ­ duction of ite m s m ade to o rd e r on a c o n tra c t b a s is , thus in c re a s in g the n eed fo r en g i­ n e e rs and o th e r te c h n ic a l p e rs o n n e l and d e c re a sin g the n eed fo r s e m isk ille d and u n sk ille d p ro d u c tio n w o rk e rs . T his fa c to r is e sp e c ia lly sig n ific a n t in m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic s , and to a s m a lle r d eg re e in the in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l field , but the R&D co n ten t is high and in c re a s in g a lso in o th e r p ro d u c ts, such a s se m ic o n d u c to rs and s p e c ia l-p u rp o s e tu b e s. A n o th er fa c to r is the co n tin u al in tro d u c tio n of te c h n o lo g ical ch an g es, such as m ech an izatio n in a sse m b ly line w ork, w hich ten d s to d e c re a s e the n u m ­ b e r of p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs need ed to p ro d u ce

The projections for 1970 involved the assumption that changes 

in ratios of nonproduction to production workers would continue, but not so rapidly as between 1958 and 1961. This assumption was based on analysis of the many variables expected to affect the industry and its employment composition during the remaining years of the 1960’s. The projections were calculated by using approximately half the per annum rates of change in nonproduction-production worker proportions between 1958 and 1961, with 

slight variations from product category to product category as deemed reasonable in the light of special influences expected to 

affect employment in that category. The resultant proportions for 

1970 were applied to the employment forecasts already made for 

that year (see table 13) to derive projected numbers of nonproduction and production workers. Alternative projections of nonproduction-production worker ratios were also made, and 

appear in appendix A.

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a given output. T his tre n d to w ard au to m atic o p e ra tio n is e s p e c ia lly sig n ifican t w h ere m a s s p ro d u ctio n tech n iq u es a re the ru le , a s in the c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts and com po­ n en ts fie ld s . F in a lly , the grow th of r e c o r d ­ keeping and co m m u n icatio n re q u ire m e n ts in m o d ern b u sin e ss h as cau sed an in c re a s e in n u m b e rs of c le r ic a l and o th e r office w o rk e rs , d esp ite the in tro d u c tio n and ex ­ panded u se of im p ro v ed office equipm ent, e sp e c ia lly fo r data p ro c e s s in g .

The n u m b er of e n g in e e rs and s c ie n tis ts in e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g w as e s tim a te d a t 128,000 in I9 6 0 ,46 n e a rly 10 tim e s a s m any a s the e stim a te d 13,000 in m id- 1951.47 The in c re a s e in th e se w o rk e rs w as c o n sid e ra b ly g r e a te r th an the th re e fo ld g row th in to ta l e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g em ploym ent o v er a p p ro x im a te ly the sam e p e rio d .48 By I960, e n g in e e rs and s c ie n tis ts w ere e stim a te d to r e p re s e n t ro ughly 17 p e rc e n t of to ta l e le c tro n ic s e m p lo y m en t.49 *

M any p ro d u ctio n ope ra tio n s in e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g have b een m ech an ized in w hole o r in p a rt in re c e n t y e a rs , and m any o th e r o p e ra tio n s a re ex p ected to be m ech ­ an ized in the y e a rs ah ead . The follow ing d isc u ssio n d e s c rib e s som e of th e se in n o ­ v a tio n s, s e p a ra te ly fo r en d -eq u ip m en t and co m ponents m a n u factu rin g .

Mechanization in End-Equipment Manufac­ turing. No single d ev elopm ent so m odified the p ro d u c tio n of e le c tro n ic end equipm ent d u rin g the 1950*s a s the in tro d u c tio n of the p rin te d - c ir c u it b o a rd , w hich e lim in a te d the m a ss of w irin g found in e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts m a n u factu red co n v en tio n ally . The p rin te d - c irc u it b o a rd c o n s is ts of a la m in a te of

* Electronic Industries Association, Electronic Industries 1962 Yearbook, p. 67. This estimate is based on a 1960 yearend survey by the EIA Marketing Services Department in cooperation 

with the Department of Defense. 47 Mid-1951 estimate from “ Expansion in Electronics Employment,’* Monthly Labor Review, February 1952, p. 154. As 

with the total employment figures in this report, both the 1960 

and 1951 figures exclude engineers and scientists working for the Federal Government, universities, and nonprofit research 

centers (estimated at 22,000 by the EIA’s 1960 survey). 4® From an estimated 244,000 workers in 1950 (“ Expansion in 

Electronics Employment,” Monthly Labor Review, February 

1952, p. 151) to 734,000 in 1960 (table 13). 49 Calculated by relating the EIA survey figure of 128,000

engineers and scientists to the total employment estimate of 

734,000 workers (table 13). This estimate has the weakness of being derived from two different sources, which may not be 

comparable in every respect. Scattered data in the files of the

Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that the percentage may be 

too high, and that 14-15 percent may be a more accurate 

estimate.

p a p e r and phenolic p la s tic , bonded to cop­ p e r fo il. A w irin g p a tte rn o r c irc u it is p rin te d on the co p p er fo il. C om ponents fo r the c irc u it a re th re a d e d th ro u g h h o les in the b o a rd so a s to m ake c o n ta c t w ith the co p p e r. S old erin g of th e se c o n ta c ts can be done in one o p e ra tio n . "B ec a u se the b o a rd is re g u la r in shape and p u ts a ll the con­ d u c to rs into one p lan e. . . [m a n u fa c tu re rs in the 1950*s w ere] p ro v id ed fo r the f ir s t tim e w ith the m ean s of han d lin g . . . p r o ­ duction in au to m atic m a c h in e ry .,,so

The p r in te d - c ir c u it b o a rd w as in tro d u ced in p la n ts m an u factu rin g la rg e q u a n titie s of sta n d a rd iz e d ite m s , such a s ra d io s and te le v isio n r e c e iv e r s . By the m id - 1950*s, m o st m a n u fa c tu re rs of c o n su m e r equipm ent w ere u sin g c irc u it b o a rd s in th e ir p ro d u c ts. By the la te 1950's, c irc u it b o a rd s w ere sta n d a rd eq uipm ent in c o m p u te rs and m any o th e r in d u s tria l and m ilita ry end p ro d u c ts. Since the in tro d u c tio n of th e se b o a rd s , n u m ero u s p ro d u c tio n im p ro v e m e n ts have b een in tro d u c e d in such p r o c e s s e s as the in s e rtio n of com ponents into the b o a rd s and the te stin g of co m p leted c irc u its and equ ip ­

m en t.

M any o th e r innovations w hich in c re a s e d p ro d u c tiv ity w e re in tro d u ced in en d -e q u ip ­ m en t m a n u factu rin g d uring the 1950* s and the e a rly 1 9 6 0 's. Im p ro v em en ts w ere m ade in d ip -so ld e rin g and platin g te c h n iq u e s. New so ld e rin g , w elding, and fa sten in g d e v ices w ere d eveloped to speed a sse m b ly , even w h ere m in ia tu riz e d c ir c u itr y w as u se d . M in ia tu riz a tio n of com ponents and c irc u its re d u c e d sto ra g e re q u ire m e n ts and in c re a s e d m ate ria ls -h a n d lin g e fficien cy . New ty p es of m ovable co nveyor sy ste m s w ere in tro d u c e d . New m ach in es w ere developed to tr a n s f e r p a rtly a sse m b le d u n its fro m one a ss e m b ly lin e to a n o th e r. V ario u s d ev ices w ere m ade to feed co m ponents m o re co n v en ien tly to a s s e m b le r s . Im p ro v ed ty p es of au to m atic te s t eq uipm ent w ere e n g in e e re d . M achine to o ls u se d in 1958 w e re , on the a v e ra g e , 40 p e rc e n t m o re p ro d u ctiv e than th o se of 10 y e a rs b e fo re .51 *

G re a te r e fficien cy w as ach iev ed by im ­ p ro v e m e n ts in p lan t layout and fa c ilitie s . P ro d u c e rs b u ilt o r re m o d e le d p la n ts so

so “ Automation,” address by Dr. Elmer W. Engstrom, Radio 

Corporation of America, at the Centennial Symposium on Modern Engineering, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Nov. 11, 

1955. 51 George Sideris, “ Production Machinery for the Electronics 

Industry,” Electronics, New York, McGraw-Hill, Oct. 24, 1958, 

p. 73.

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th a t p ro d u ctio n lin e s could be re a lig n e d sw iftly . L ighting sy ste m s w e re im p ro v ed . G as, e le c tric ity , w a te r, and o th e r u tilitie s w e re p laced fo r g r e a te r a c c e s s ib ility to p ro d u ctio n sta tio n s. The u se of c o m p re s s e d a ir w as in tro d u ced "to o p e ra te and feed sm a ll p a r ts to bench and hand to o ls, to d riv e a sse m b ly m a c h in e ry , fo r d ry in g , p ain tin g , clean in g , and c h e m ic a l tan k a g i­ ta tio n ." 52

Mechanization in Components Manufactur­ ing. The in tro d u c tio n of th e tr a n s is to r in th e e a rly 1950*8 re p re s e n te d an im p o rta n t d ev elo p m en t in the com ponents fie ld . T ech ­ n iq u es to m ak e tr a n s is to r s d iffer c o n s id e r­ ab ly fro m th o se u se d to m ake o th e r co m ­ p o n en ts. T ra n s is to r m a n u fa c tu re is a c h e m ic a l-m e ta llu rg ic a l p ro c e s s ; the silic o n and g e rm an iu m c r y s ta ls u se d a r e sp e c ia lly "grow n" and a sse m b le d in m e tic u lo u sly c le a n and fu lly a ir conditioned ro o m s. A l­ though the f i r s t tr a n s is to r s w e re a sse m b le d e n tire ly by hand w ith a re la tiv e ly high re je c tio n r a te , im p ro v e m e n ts in tech n iq u es ra p id ly d e c re a s e d u n it la b o r re q u ire m e n ts and in c re a s e d p ro d u c t re lia b ility and p e r ­ fo rm a n c e . P ro d u c tio n lin e s w e re in c r e a s ­ ingly m e ch an ized , w ith au to m atic eq uipm ent fo r such o p e ra tio n s a s a sse m b lin g , so rtin g , and te stin g .

A dvances in p ro d u c tio n tech n iq u es have o c c u rre d sin ce th e e a rly 1950's a lso in the m a n u fa c tu re of com ponents o th er th an tr a n s is to r s . Tube m an u factu rin g h a s b e ­ com e highly m ech an ized in a ll o p e ra tio n s ex cep t m ount a sse m b ly , and im p ro v e m e n ts in p ro d u c tiv ity continue. T e st equipm ent is becom ing m o re and m o re au to m a tic , a s ex em p lified by a m ach in e w hich can te s t 1,800 e le c tro n tu b es an h o u r. A c o m p u te r- c o n tro lle d a sse m b ly lin e h a s b een in tro ­ duced in an a lre a d y highly au to m ated p lan t m aking r e s is to r s , w hich h as doubled the p la n t's p ro d u c tio n r a te to 2,400 u n its an h o u r. S till a n o th e r develo p m en t is a m u lti­ sta tio n w inding m ach in e w hich w inds in ­ d u c to rs a u to m a tic a lly . A u tom ated p r o c e ­ d u re s a r e being in tro d u ced a lso in the re la tiv e ly new field of m ic ro e le c tro n ic s .

OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS AND TRENDS

To su p p lem en t and v e rify the m a te ria l on o ccu p atio n al tre n d s p re s e n te d above, fie ld

52 Ibid., p. 77.

v is its w ere m ade in m id - 1962 to s e v e ra l e le c tro n ic s e s ta b lis h m e n ts . A lthough the p lan ts v is ite d em ployed n e a rly 5 p e rc e n t of a ll e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g w o rk e rs and c o v e re d e v e ry m a jo r e le c tro n ic p ro d u ct c a te g o ry , th ey do not p ro v id e a r e p r e s e n ta ­ tive sam p le of the in d u s try and the in fo r­ m atio n re c e iv e d fro m th em is illu s tra tiv e only.

T his in fo rm a tio n su p p o rts the co n clu sio n th a t o ccu p atio n al p a tte rn s v a ry acc o rd in g to the type of e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts m ad e. Illu s tra tiv e o ccu p atio n al d istrib u tio n s show n in tab le 16 in d ic a te th at, in m id - 1962, non­ p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs w ere in the m a jo rity (60 p e rc e n t of the w ork fo rc e ) in m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic s m a n u fa c tu rin g 53 but d efin itely in the m in o rity (30 p e rc e n t of the w ork fo rc e ) in c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts m anu­ fa c tu rin g .54 The g r e a te r e m p h a sis in m ili­ ta r y and sp ace e le c tro n ic s on R&D w ork and low -volum e cu sto m p ro d u ctio n is ev id en t fro m th e se d is trib u tio n s . In m ilita ry and space e le c tro n ic s , 33 p e rc e n t of the w ork fo rc e w ere e n g in e e rs, te c h n ic ia n s, and d ra fts m e n c o m p a re d w ith 11 p e rc e n t in the c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts f ie ld ,55 13 p e rc e n t w ere sk ille d w o rk e rs co m p a re d w ith 7 p e rc e n t in the c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts field , and 27 p e rc e n t w ere s e m isk ille d and u n sk ille d w o rk e rs co m p a re d w ith 63 p e rc e n t in c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts e le c tro n ic s .

A s s e m b le rs w ere the la r g e s t m anual o ccu p atio n al g roup, re p re s e n tin g 42 p e rc e n t of a ll w o rk e rs in the c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts c a te g o ry and 16 p e rc e n t in m ilita ry and space e le c tro n ic s (table 16). A ll a s s e m b le rs in the c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts p la n ts w ere c la s ­ sified as s e m isk ille d o r u n sk ille d but som e in the m ilita ry -s p a c e p ro d u c ts p lan ts w ere

s* The most comparable proportion shown in table 15 to this figure is that of 52 percent for the 1961 nonproduction-worker proportion in military-space and industrial-commercial prod­ ucts combined. This would imply that nonproduction workers represent a sm aller part of the work force in industrial-com­ mercial than in military-space electronics. 54 The comparable proportion shown in table 15, for consumer products manufacturing in 1961, is 27 percent.

55 Engineers and scientists alone represented 21 percent of the 

work force in military and space electronics and 6 percent in 

the consumer products category (table 16). Additional data in the 

files of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, covering about oneseventh of total estimated electronics employment, show that in 

January 1961 engineers and scientists represented approximately 

18 percent of electronics employment in the military-space and 

industrial-commercial categories combined, 10 percent in components manufacturing, and 7 percent in the consumer products 

field. (Cf. estimates earlier in the present chapter showing that 

for electronics manufacturing as a whole engineers and scien­ tists represent an estimated 14 to 17 percent of all employment.)

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c la s s ifie d a s sk ille d . O th er re la tiv e ly la rg e m an u al o ccu p atio n al g roups w ere in s p e c ­ to r s and te s te r s ; a n a ly z e rs and tro u b le ­ s h o o te rs; fa b ric a tin g w o rk e rs; p ro c e s s in g w o rk e rs ; and m a c h in ists and re p a irm e n .

A few of the p lan t o ffic ia ls in te rv ie w e d in m id - 1962 m ade co m m en ts and p r e d ic ­ tio n s re g a rd in g o ccu p atio n al tre n d s . D is ­ c u ssin g the fu tu re e le c tro n ic s w ork fo rc e , one ex ecu tiv e of a p lan t m aking m ilita ry - sp ace and in d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic eq u ip m en t s tr e s s e d the ro le of m ic ro ­ e le c tro n ic s : "T he co m p o sitio n of the w ork fo rc e of the fu tu re w ill depend h e av ily on the fu tu re of m ic ro e le c tro n ic s . A lthough being developed m ain ly fo r its m ilita ry and sp ace a p p lic a tio n s, m ic ro e le c tro n ic s w ill undoubtedly find a p p licatio n a lso in o th e r e le c tro n ic s e c to rs . T his grow ing field is c re a tin g an acu te dem and fo r te c h n ic a l people w ith back g ro u n d in so lid - sta te w ork. It m ay affect p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs a s w ell, sin ce it should re q u ire few er so ld e rin g , w irin g , and s im ila r o p e ra tio n s and m o re m ic ro sc o p ic , *white room* w ork. T his tre n d to w ard m o re and m o re m in ia tu riz a tio n m ay in c re a s e the n u m e ric a l im p o rta n c e of w om en in a s s e m b ly w o rk ."

An ex ecu tiv e in an o th e r e sta b lish m e n t m an u factu rin g m ilita ry -s p a c e and in d u s­ tr ia l- c o m m e r c ia l e le c tro n ic equipm ent e m ­ p h a siz e d the e s p e c ia lly ra p id grow th in n u m b e rs of e n g in e e rs and o th e r n o n p ro ­ d u ctio n w o rk e rs: "B etw een 1958 and 1962, the n u m b er of e n g in e e rs in th is p lan t ro s e 68 p e rc e n t, the n u m b er of te c h n ic ia n s 56 p e rc e n t, d ra fts m e n 78 p e rc e n t, and c le r ic a l w o rk e rs 58 p e rc e n t. D uring th is p e rio d the to ta l n u m b er of s a la rie d w o rk e rs in c re a s e d 45 p e rc e n t w hile the n u m b er of h o u rly w age w o rk e rs fe ll 10 p e rc e n t. A s a r e s u lt, s a la rie d w o rk e rs ro s e fro m 41 p e rc e n t of to ta l em p lo y m en t in 1958 to 53 p e rc e n t in 1962. T his tre n d is due m ain ly to the grow th in c o n tra c ts fo r m is s ile and sp ace e le c ­ tro n ic s ; th e se g e n e ra lly have a high R&D co n ten t and involve low vo lu m es w ith e x ­ tre m e ly high re lia b ility re q u ire m e n ts . E n g in e e rs and re la te d w o rk e rs w ill find in c re a s in g job o p p o rtu n itie s at th is plan t in the y e a rs im m e d ia te ly ahead. One p o s­ sib le ex cep tio n is in d u s tria l e n g in e e rs; the s m a lle r p ro d u c tio n ru n s com m on to m is ­ sile and sp ace w ork m ay a d v e rs e ly affect job o p p o rtu n itie s fo r th e m ."

An o ffic ia l in c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts m an u ­ fa c tu rin g ev alu ated the im p a c t of te c h n o ­

lo g ic a l change on p ro d u c tio n w o rk e rs in h is plant: "T he d riv e to w ard lo w erin g c o s ts co n tin u es a s a stro n g tre n d in th is p lan t, in o rd e r to m eet d o m e stic a n d fo re ig n c o m p etitio n . Innovations w hich m ake p r o ­ duction p r o c e s s e s m o re a u to m atic o c c u r fre q u e n tly . P ro d u c tio n w o rk e rs d isp la c e d by te c h n o lo g ical change a re not la id off but tr a n s f e r r e d to o th e r jo b s. In the s h o rt run, of c o u rs e , inno v atio n s c u r ta il the to ta l n u m b er of p ro d u c tio n jo b s, but the u ltim a te p u rp o se is to in c re a s e r e lia b ility and lo w er c o s ts and th u s s e ll a g r e a te r n u m b er of im p ro v ed , le s s ex p en siv e s e ts . To the e x ­ ten t th is p u rp o se is re a liz e d , te c h n o lo g ical change n eed not d e c re a s e em p lo y m en t on the p ro d u ctio n lin e . P ro d u c tio n w o rk e rs a re u su a lly the f i r s t to be tak en on w hen s a le s dem and in c r e a s e s ."

The em p lo y m en t outlook d iffe rs c o n sid ­ e ra b ly am ong o ccu p atio n al g ro u p s in a p lan t m an u factu rin g se m ic o n d u c to rs, a c ­ co rd in g to an o ffic ia l of th a t plan t: "T he m o st p ro m isin g fu tu re job o p p o rtu n itie s h e re and e lse w h e re in sem ic o n d u c to r e le c ­ tro n ic s e x is t fo r highly sk ille d equipm ent m e c h a n ic s, e le c tro m e c h a n ic a l te c h n ic ia n s, and e le c tro n ic s te c h n ic ia n s.

"E n g in eerin g sh o rta g e s m ay fo rc e co n ­ tinued re lia n c e on som e n o n d eg ree e n g i­ n e e rs , although the re c ru itin g d riv e a t th is p lan t is fo r d e g re e e n g in e e rs . N e a rly one- fo u rth of the e n g in e e rs now em ployed h e re a re n o n d eg ree e n g in e e rs, a lm o s t a ll of them being fo rm e r p ro d u ctio n o r la b o ra to ry te c h n ic ia n s who have b een u p g rad ed .

" C le ric a l w o rk e rs m ay be a d v e rs e ly a f­ fected if the p lan t in tro d u c e s c o m p u te rs fo r som e of its office w ork, a s is being a c tiv e ly c o n sid e re d . On the o th e r hand, new jo b s should be c re a te d fo r keypunch o p e ra to rs and o th e r c o m p u te r-a s s o c ia te d w o rk e rs .

"Jo b o p p o rtu n itie s fo r se m is k ille d and u n sk ille d p ro d u c tio n w o rk e rs have b een c u rta ile d in th is p lan t in the p a st two o r th re e y e a rs by the in tro d u c tio n of au to m atic p ro c e s s in g and te stin g eq u ip m en t. T his tre n d to w ard m o re au to m atio n m ay be ex ­ p e cted to continue b e c au se it is p a rt of o u r a n sw e r to im p ro v e d p ro d u ct q u a lity and re lia b ility and to the lo w ered c o s ts needed to m eet c o m p e titio n both at hom e and fro m a b ro a d . F u tu re job o p p o rtu n itie s fo r s e m i­ sk ille d and u n sk ille d p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs w ill grow only if p ro d u ct dem and expands su ffic ie n tly to m o re th an o ffset an tic ip a te d in c r e a s e s in output p e r w o rk e r."

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WOMEN WORKERS

B ecause of the n u m e ric a l im p o rta n c e of w om en w o rk e rs in e le c tro n ic s m a n u fa c tu r­ ing, in fo rm atio n co n cern in g th em w as c o l­ le c te d during the fie ld v is its m ade in m id- 1962 and m uch of it is included in tab le 17. A lthough the d ata a re fra g m e n ta ry , th ey p oint up the re la tiv e ly la rg e p ro p o rtio n s of w om en am ong p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs and the re la tiv e ly sm a ll p ro p o rtio n s in non­ p ro d u c tio n o ccu p atio n s ex cep t c le r ic a l and ste n o g ra p h ic . W omen outn u m b er m en in som e ty p es of p ro d u c tio n jo b s, e s p e c ia lly in m a s s p ro d u c tio n o p e ra tio n s such as th o se in c o n su m e r-p ro d u c t and sem ico n d u cto r m a n u factu rin g .

In 1961, w om en w o rk e rs re p re s e n te d an e s tim a te d 41 p e rc e n t of to ta l em ploym ent in e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g (table 18).® F o r U .S. m an u factu rin g a s a w hole, in c o m ­ p a ris o n , w om en w o rk e rs re p re s e n te d about 26 p e rc e n t of a ll w o rk e rs in th a t y e a r .57 T hey re p re s e n te d a lo w er p ro p o rtio n (30 p e rc e n t) in the m ilita ry -s p a c e and in d u s­ tr ia l- c o m m e r c ia l c a te g o ry in 1961 and h ig h e r p ro p o rtio n s in the c o n su m e r p ro d - c u ts (49 p e rc e n t) and com ponents (56 p e r ­ cent) c a te g o rie s . T hese d iffe re n c e s a re a s s o c ia te d ch iefly w ith d iffe re n c e s in p r o ­ p o rtio n s of p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs . W om en a r e em ployed m ain ly a s p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs and th e re fo re a re m o re n u m ero u s w h ere p ro d u c tio n w o rk e rs a re m o re n u m e ro u s.

B ecau se the p ro p o rtio n of p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs to to ta l em ploym ent in e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g is ex p ected to d eclin e b e ­ tw een 1961 and 1970 (table 15), the p ro p o r­ tio n of w om en w o rk e rs to to ta l em ploym ent is a lso ex p ected to d eclin e betw een th o se

56 The estimates for 1958-61 in table 18 were developed from statistics on women workers published quarterly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Employment and Earnings series. Since these figures are published by SIC group, they had to be converted to the product categories of table 18. The methodology for doing this, and for developing the projections to 1970, is sim ilar to that used to derive the data in table 15 and is described in appendix A, Because of the form in which the BLS data are available, estimates for the military-space and industrial- commercial product categories could be developed only as a 

combined group.

5T Employment and Earnings, August 1962, pp. iv and viii.

y e a rs (table 1 8 ).56 8 P ro je c te d d e c lin e s a re re la tiv e ly sm a ll in the m ilita ry -in d u s tria l and c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts c a te g o rie s , but ra th e r sh a rp (fro m 50 p e rc e n t in 1961 to 41 p e rc e n t in 1970) in the m a n u factu re of e le c tro n tu b e s. Tube m an u factu rin g , m o re ­ o v e r, is the only in d u s try seg m en t in w hich the ab so lu te n u m b er of w om en w o rk e rs is ex p ected to fa ll b etw een 1961 and 1970; the in d u s try 1 s a n tic ip a te d ex p an sio n th ro u g h the 1960!s should r e s u lt in in c r e a s e s in the ab so lu te n u m b er of w om en w o rk e rs in a ll o th e r p ro d u ct c a te g o rie s .

In only one p ro d u ct c a te g o ry show n in tab le 1 8 --co m p o n en ts o th e r th an tu b e s - - is the p ro p o rtio n of w om en w o rk e rs ex p ected to in c re a s e du rin g the 1960*s even though, in th is c a te g o ry a s in the o th e rs , the p r o ­ p o rtio n of p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs is ex p ected to continue to d e c lin e . One re a s o n fo r th is d iffe re n ce in p ro je c tio n s is th a t w om en a re em ployed not only a s p ro d u c tio n w o rk e rs but a lso in c le r ic a l and o th e r office jo b s, and the p ro je c te d tre n d in the p ro p o rtio n of office jo b s is u p w ard . A second re a s o n lie s in the m a rk e d tre n d to w ard m ic ro m in ia ­ tu riz a tio n of se m ic o n d u c to rs and o th e r c o m ­ po n en ts, w hich m ay give w om en an advantage o v er m en in som e ty p es of a s s e m b ly and o th e r p ro d u c tio n -lin e w ork and a s a re s u lt m ay in c re a s e the p ro p o rtio n of w om en p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs . T his tre n d m ay be im p o rta n t a lso in the m ilita ry and in d u s­ tr i a l fie ld b e c a u se of the in c re a s in g u se in th at fie ld of m ic ro m in ia tu riz e d com ponents and c ir c u its . T his m ay help to ex p lain why in th a t p ro d u ct c a te g o ry th e p ro je c te d d ro p in p ro p o rtio n a te em p lo y m en t is ex p ected to be le s s fo r w om en w o rk e rs th an fo r p r o ­ duction w o rk e rs .

58 The projected decrease is from 41 percent to 39 percent. In 1950, women workers were estimated at 50 percent of total electronics employment. The 1950 figure is not precisely com­ parable with those in table 18, but it provides a rough indication of the extent of change. (1950 estimate developed by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, on the basis of mate­ rial from “ Expansion in Electronics Employment,” Monthly Labor Review. February 1952, and “ The Effect of the Defense Program on Employment Outlook in Electronics Manufacturing,” 

Occupational Outlook Handbook, Supplement No. 15 (Bureau of 

Labor Statistics), May 1951.

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Table 15. Nonproduction and production workers in electronics manufacturing, by product category,

estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970

Product category and 

type o f w orker1 Number o f workers (thousands) Percent o f employment in 

product category

1958 1959 1960 1961 1970 1958 1959 1960 1961 1970

T otal e le c tro n ic s em ploym ent.... 609.8 689.4 734.1 777.7 1,084.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers................. 229.0 256.1 285.3 314.3 516.0 37.6 37.1 38.9 40.4 47.6 Production w orkers........................ 380.8 433.3 448.8 463.4 568.3 62.4 62.9 61.1 59.6 52.4 M ilita ry -sp a c e and in d u s tr ia l- commercial p ro d u cts2.................................. 331.9 353.0 380.1 409.0 645.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers.............................. 158.3 173.0 190.4 214.3 386.5 47.7 49.0 50.1 52.4 59.9 Production w orkers.................................... 173.6 180.0 189.7 194.7 258.7 52.3 51.0 4 9.9 47.6 40.1 Consumer p ro d u c ts........................................... 72.7 89.9 93.3 88.7 119.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers.............................. 19.0 22.7 24.5 23.8 33.3 26.1 25.2 26.3 26.8 27.9 P roduction w orkers..................................... 53.7 67.2 68.8 64.9 85.9 73.9 74.8 73.7 73.2 72.1 Components...................................................... 205.2 246.5 260.7 280.0 319.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers.............................. . 51.7 60.4 70.4 76.2 96.2 25.2 24.5 27.0 27.2 30.1 Production w orkers..................................... 153.5 186.1 190.3 203.8 223.7 74.8 75.5 73.0 72.8 69.9 Tubes.................................................... ................ 79.6 89.2 87.6 88.8 80.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers.............................. 20.5 23.7 25.1 26.6 30.0 25.8 26.6 28.7 30.0 37.5 P roduction w orkers..................................... 59.1 65.5 62.5 62.2 50.0 74.2 73.4 71.3 70.0 62.5 Other than tu b e s........................ .................... 125.6 157.3 173.1 191.2 239.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers.............................. 31.1 36.7 45.2 49.5 66.2 24.8 23.3 26.1 25.9 27.6 Production w orkers..................................... 94.5 120.6 127.9 141.7 173.7 75.2 76.7 73.9 74.1 72.4

1 "Production and re la te d workers" (re fe rre d to in th is re p o rt sim ply as production w orkers), as defined by the Bureau o f Labor S t a t i s t i c s include "working foremen and a l l nonsupervisory workers (in clu d in g leadmen and tra in e e s) engaged in fa b ric a tin g , p ro cessin g , assem bling, in sp e c tio n , re c e iv in g , sto ra g e , handling, packing, warehousing, shipping, m aintenance, re p a ir , j a n i t o r i a l and watchman s e rv ic e s , product development, a u x ilia ry p roduction fo r p la n t* s own use (e.g.pow er p la n t) , and recordkeeping and o th er serv ic e s c lo se ly asso ciated w ith the above production o p eratio n s." ^ Because o f th e form in which th e source d ata were a v a ila b le , estim ates could n ot be developed fo r th e m ilitary -sp ace category s e p a ra te ly from th e in d u strial-com m ercial category.

Note: Because o f rounding, sums o f in d iv id u a l item s may not equal t o t a l s .

Source: E stim ates and p ro je c tio n s developed by U.S*. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor S t a t i s t i c s .

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Table 16. Illustrative occupational distributions in electronics manufacturing,

military-space and consumer products, mid-1962

Occupation Military and

space products

Consumer

products

Percent

Total employment......................................... 100.0 100.0

Nonproduction workers.......................................... 60.0 30.0

Engineers and other technical workers....................... 33.4 11.0

Engineers1 ................................................. 21.0 6.0

Technicians................................................ 7.7 3.0

Draftsmen.................................................. 4.7 2.0

Administrative and executive2............. .................. 13.2 12.0

Clerical and stenographic.................................... 13.4 7.0

Production workers............................................. 40.0 70.0

Skilled............... ...................................... 12.6 6.8

Assemblers................................................. 5.2 —

Analyzers and troubleshooters............................. 1.1 5.1

Processing workers3............... ........................ .2 —

Machinists and repairmen................................... 3.7 .3

Sheet-metal workers........................................ .8 --

Tool and die makers........................................ .3 .4

Welders.................................................... .6 .1

Carpenters................................................. .2 .2

Electricians............................................... .2 .2

Plumbers and pipefitters................................... .2 .1

Other skilled workers4 ..................................... .1 .4

Semiskilled and unskilled......... .......................... 27.4 63.2

Assemblers................................................. 11.0 42.0

Inspectors and testers..................................... 3.1 14.4

Fabricating workers5 .................................... • • • 3.7 1.2

Processing workers6 ........................................ 3.1 1.2

Shipping and receiving workers............................. 1.3 1.2

Material handlers, truckdrivers, and laborers............. .3 2.2

Custodial and janitorial workers.......................... 1.5 .4

Other semiskilled and unskilled workers7...... ............ 3.4 .6

1 Includes such occupations as e le c tr ic a l engineer, e le c tro n ic s engineer, design engi­ n eer, in d u s tr ia l engineer, m echanical engineer, value engineer, t e s t and q u a lity co n tro l engineer, and chemical engineer. The occupational d is tr ib u tio n fo r m ilita ry and space products also includes a sm all number of s c ie n tis ts , such as p h y s ic is ts , chem ists, m a th ­ e m a tic ia n s , and m e ta llu rg is ts .

2 Includes such employees as managers and su p erv iso rs, foremen, salesm en, and personnel in purchasing, in d u s tr ia l r e la tio n s , accounting, m arketing, and a d v e rtisin g . 3 Includes such occupations as s k ille d e le c tro p la te r and e tc h e r. 4 Includes such occupations as s ta tio n a ry engineer, m illw rig h t, blacksm ith, and s k ille d machine to o l o p erato r. 5 Includes such occupations as punch p re ss, d r i l l p re ss, power brake, sh ear, and saw o p erato r, g rin d e r, and b u ffe r. 6 Includes such occupations as spray and dip p a in te r, oven te n d e r, s i l k screen o p erato r, p la tin g machine lo ad er, etching machine o p erato r, d egreaser, and cab in et retoucher. 7 Includes such occupations as s ta tio n a ry b o ile r firem an, machine setup man, r e l i e f o p erato r, and cab in et repairm an.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S ta t i s t i c s ; based on inform ation obtained through f ie ld v i s i t s to e le c tro n ic s estab lish m en ts.

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Table 17. Women workers as percent of all workers in electronics manufacturing

occupations, by major product category, mid-1962

Women as p ercen t o f a l l workers in 

occupation1

Occupation Military-space

and industrialcommercial

products

Consumer

products

Semiconductors

All occupations...................... 2 20-30 2 48 (3)

Nonproduction workers...................... 15-16 18 (?)

Engineers................................. (4 ) 0 (?)

Technicians............................... 8 0 (3 )

Draftsmen................................. 2 16 (3 )

Administrative and executive......... ... 2 2 (*)

Clerical and stenographic................ 60 65 (3)

Production workers......................... 25-4-5 45-60 70-72

Assemblers..... .......................... 50-90 80 90-100

Inspectors and testers................... 20-40 70 90- 99

Processing and fabrication............... 25-30 (3) 65- 90

Craftsmen........ ........................ 4 - 2 0 0

Shipping and receiving...................

Materials handlers, including............

0- 6 (3 ) (3)

truck drivers..... ...................... 0 (3) (3)

Custodial and janitorial................. 7-14 0 5

1 Two fig u re s given in a column in d ic a te th e range o f th e p ercen ts supplied by respon­ d en ts; 1 fig u re in d ic a te s e ith e r th a t only 1 respondent supplied a p ercen t fig u re o r th a t more than 1 respondent furnished th e same p ercen t. Figures have been rounded s lig h tly in 

some cases. 2 These fig u re s , though based only on i l l u s t r a t i v e d ata from a few f ie ld v i s i t s , are c o n siste n t w ith estim ates based on d ata published q u a rte rly by th e Bureau of Labor S ta ­ t i s t i c s in i t s Employment and Earnings s e rie s , which in d ic a te th a t in 1961 women re p re ­ sented 30 p ercen t o f a l l employees in the m ilita ry -sp a c e and in d u strial-co m m ercial products category and 49 p ercen t in th e consumer products category. (See ta b le 1 8 .) 3 Not a v a ila b le . 4 Less th an 0.5 p ercen t.

Source: U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor S t a t i s t i c s ; based on inform ation obtained through f ie ld v i s i t s to e le c tro n ic s estab lish m en ts.

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Table 18. Men and women workers in electronics manufacturing, by product category, estimates for 1958-61

and projections for 1970

Product category and sex o f worker

Number o f workers (thousands) P ercent o f employment in product category

1958 1959 1960 1961 1970 1958 1959 1960 1961 1970

T o tal e le c tro n ic s employment............. 609.8 689.4 734.1 777.7 1,084.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Men............................................................... 357.9 399.9 428.4 458.0 661.6 58.7 58.0 58.4 58.9 61.0 Women.................................................. • • • • 251.9 289.5 305.7 319.7 422.7 41.3 42.0 41.6 41.1 39.0

M ilita ry -sp a c e and in d u s tr ia l- commercial p ro d u cts1............................ 331.9 353.0 380.1 409.0 645.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Men.................. • •. ............. ....................... 231.0 249.2 268.7 288.3 463.3 69.6 70.6 70.7 70.5 71.8 Women.......................................................... 100.9 103.8 111.4 120.7 181.9 30.4 29.4 29.3 29.5 28.2

Consumer p ro d u c ts.................................... 72.7 89.9 93.3 88.7 119.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Men............................................................... 36.9 44.7 46.6 45.7 62.6 50.8 49.7 50.0 51.5 52.5 Women.......................................................... 35.8 45.2 46.7 43.0 56.6 49.2 50.3 50.0 48.5 47.5

Components.................................................... 205.2 246.5 260.7 280.0 319.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Men.............................................................. 90.0 106.0 113.1 124.0 135.7 43.9 43.0 43.4 44.3 42.4 Women.......................................................... 115.2 140.5 147.6 156.0 184.2 56.1 57.0 56.6 55.7 57.6

Tubes.......................................................... 79.6 89.2 87.6 88.8 80.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Men.......................................................... 33.9 39.3 40.7 44.1 47.0 42.6 44.1 46.4 49.7 58.7 Women...................................................... 45.7 49.9 46.9 44.7 33.0 57.4 55.9 53.6 50.3 41.3

Other th an tu b e s.................................. 125.6 157.3 173.1 191.2 239.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Men.......................................................... 56.1 66.7 72.4 79.9 88.7 44.7 42.4 41.8 41.8 37.0 Women...................................................... 69.5 90.6 100.7 111.3 151.2 55.3 57.6 58.2 58.2 63.0

1 Because o f th e form in which the source d ata were a v a ila b le , estim ates could not be developed fo r the m ilita ry - space category s e p a ra te ly from the in d u strial-com m ercial category.

Note: Because o f rounding, sums of in d iv id u a l items may not equal t o t a l s .

Source: E stim ates and p ro je c tio n s developed by U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor S t a t i s t i c s

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APPENDIX A. METHODOLOGY

T his appendix d e s c rib e s the p ro c e d u re s u se d to develop e s tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s of e le c tro n ic s em p lo y m en t and the d i s t r i ­ bution of th e se e s tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s betw een non p ro d u ctio n and p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs and b etw een m en and w om en w o rk e rs . The employment p ro je c tio n s should be view ed only a s in d icatio n s of g e n e ra l m ag n itu d es. Som e of the h is to ric a l s e r ie s upon w hich th ey a re b a se d do not extend back m any y e a rs and w ould not n e c e s s a r ily be too help fu l if th ey did, sin ce the p a s t is an u n c e rta in guide to the fu tu re in the ra p id ly changing e le c tro n ic s fie ld . The p ro je c tio n s, of c o u rs e , a re h eav ily in flu en ced by the m a jo r a ssu m p tio n s u sed in d e riv in g th em . T hese a ssu m p tio n s a re given in c h a p te r 3 in the se c tio n on m e th ­ odology.

D e sc rib e d f ir s t in th is appendix is the m ethodology u se d to d e riv e em p loym ent e s tim a te s fo r the y e a rs 1958 to 1961 and p ro je c tio n s fo r 1970. D e sc rib e d next a re the p ro c e d u re s u se d to d istrib u te th e se e s tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s betw een non­ p ro d u ctio n and p ro d u c tio n w o rk e rs and betw een m en and w om en w o rk e rs .

DERIVATION OF EMPLOYMENT ESTI­ MATES AND PROJECTIONS, BY MAJOR ELECTRONIC PRODUCT CATEGORY

A lthough s e v e ra l s ta tis tic a l s e r ie s on em p lo y m en t by in d u s try a re a v a ila b le ,89 th ey do not p ro v id e d ata on e le c tro n ic s em ploym ent a c c u ra te enough fo r th is study. The d ata in th e se s e r ie s a re c la s s ifie d by SIC code. A s noted in c h a p te r 1, 2 dozen o r m o re of the m o re than 400 SIC 4 - d igit m an u factu rin g in d u s trie s contain som e e le c tro n ic s a c tiv ity , although only 7 a r e

toThe U.S. Department of Labor regularly issues an employment series prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Employment and Earnings series) and another prepared by the Bureau of Employment Security (Employment and Wages series). Comparable series are published regularly by the Bureau of the 

Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, singly in its censuses 

and surveys of manufactures and jointly with the Social Security Administration, U.S. Department of Health, Education, and 

Welfare, in the County Business Patterns series.

engaged p r im a r ily in such a c tiv ity .60 E ven in th e se sev en , som e w o rk e rs should be excluded fro m any count of e le c tro n ic s em p loym ent b e c a u se th ey a re engaged in the m a n u factu re of p ro d u c ts w hich a re not e le c tro n ic .61 In in d u s trie s only se c o n d a rily engaged in e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g , the m a jo rity of w o rk e rs g e n e ra lly should be excluded. E le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g e m ­ ploym ent is fre q u e n tly equated w ith the sum of to ta l em p lo y m en t in the sev en SIC 4 - dig it in d u s trie s p r im a r ily engaged in e le c tro n ic s p ro d u ctio n , but th is sum is only a m in im a l m e a s u re b ec a u se m any ad d itio n al e le c tro n ic s w o rk e rs a re em ployed in SIC in d u s trie s not p r im a r ily engaged in e le c ­ tro n ic s a c tiv ity . B etw een 1958 and 1961, fo r ex am p le, em ploym ent in the sev en in ­ d u s trie s a v e ra g e d a p p ro x im a te ly th re e - fo u rth s of the to ta l e le c tro n ic s em p lo y m en t e stim a te d in th is study.62

Since the in d u s try em p loym ent s ta tis tic s c u rre n tly a v ailab le do not fu rn is h su ffi­ c ie n tly a c c u ra te em ploym ent e s tim a te s fo r p u rp o se s of th is study, an a lte rn a tiv e m ethod w as adopted w hich u tiliz e d e le c tro n ic sh ip ­ m en ts s ta tis tic s and c o n v e rte d th em into em ploym ent to ta ls by dividing into th em s h ip m e n ts-p e r-e m p lo y e e s ta tis tic s . T his m ethodology w ill be d e sc rib e d in two ste p s: (A) D e riv a tio n of e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts e s ­ tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s; and (B) d e riv a tio n of e le c tro n ic s s h ip m e n ts-p e r-e m p lo y e e e s ­ tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s .

Derivation of Electronics Shipments E sti­ m ates and Projections. The sh ip m en ts s e ­ r ie s u se d in th is study is th a t p u b lish ed by the E le c tro n ic In d u s trie s A sso c ia tio n , a m a jo r tra d e a s s o c ia tio n in the e le c tro n ic s

60 The seven are SIC industries 3651, 3652, 3662, 3671, 3672, 

3673, and 3679.

61 In 1958, for example, the value of nonelectronic shipments 

ranged among the seven industries from 3 to 17 percent of the 

value of total industry shipments (U.S. Census of Manufactures: 

1958. MC 58(2)-36 D, table 5A (U.S. Bureau of the Census)).

62 Employment data for the seven industries are from the 

Employment and Earnings series of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and employment estimates developed for this study are shown in table 13. In the Employment and Earnings series, data 

for SIC 3651 and 3652 are combined a? are data for SIC 3671, 

3672, and 3673: data for SIC 3662 and 3679 are shown separately.

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m an u factu rin g in d u s try .* 65 The s e r ie s is show n, fo r the y e a rs 1950 to 1962, in tab le A-l, in c u rre n t d o lla r fig u re s and by m a jo r e le c tro n ic p ro d u ct c a te g o ry . T hese fig u re s w e re co n v erted by the B u reau of L ab o r S ta tis tic s , thro u g h p ro c e d u re s d e s c rib e d in the n ex t se c tio n into " r e a l" (th at is co n stan t d o lla r) v alu es (also shown in ta b le A - l) . The c o n v e rsio n w as m ade b e c au se em p lo y ­ m en t e s tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s , can be b e tte r d eriv ed fro m shipm ent v alu es fro m w hich the influence of p ric e changes is e lim in a te d .

Conversion of Shipments from Current to Constant Dollar Estim ates. P r ic e d e flatio n w ould be a sim p le and re la tiv e ly a c c u ra te m a tte r if a v ailab le p ric e in d ex es w ere e x a c tly sp ecific to the m a jo r e le c tro n ic p ro d u c t c a te g o rie s . T his is not the c a se h o w ev er, and the in d ex es se le c te d a re only ro u g h ly a p p ro p ria te . T his lim its the a c c u ­ ra c y of the co n sta n t d o lla r e s tim a te s shown in tab le A - l, and although the e s tim a te s a re ad eq u ate fo r the p u rp o se of ap p ro x im atin g p h y sic a l sh ip m en t tre n d s , fro m w hich to e x tra p o la te p ro je c tio n s to 1970, th ey a re not defin itiv e m e a s u re s of p ric e changes and cannot p ro v id e definitive m e a s u re s of to ta l output o r output p e r w o rk e r.

C u rre n t d o lla r sh ip m en t v a lu e s fo r each of the m a jo r p ro d u ct c a te g o rie s w ere d e ­ fla te d s e p a ra te ly , and the re s u lta n t co n ­ sta n t d o lla r fig u re s w ere added to g e th e r to o b tain co n stan t d o lla r e s tim a te s fo r to ta l e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts.

M ilita ry and space sh ip m en ts w ere co n ­ v e rte d fro m c u rre n t to co n sta n t d o lla rs th ro u g h the u se of two p ric e in d ex es, one fo r m ilita ry e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts and the o th e r fo r c iv ilia n sp ace e le c tro n ic s sh ip ­ m e n ts. The p ric e d e fla to r c o n sid e re d m o st a p p ro p ria te fo r m ilita ry e le c tro n ic s sh ip ­ m e n ts w as th a t c o n stru c te d fo r in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic p ro d u c ts (de­ s c rib e d la te r), th e u n d erly in g a ssu m p tio n being th a t p ric e m o v em en ts fo r th e two p ro d u c t c a te g o rie s a r e s im ila r. The index se le c te d a s the m o st a p p ro p ria te fo r c iv ilia n

65 This series was selected because of its comprehensive and 

detailed nature. It is prepared by the EIA*s Marketing Services 

Department, and is based on recurrent reporting from cooperating respondents and periodic surveys of electronics manufacturers, supplemented by material from the Bureau of the Census 

and the Business and Defense Services Administration, both of 

the U.S. Department of Commerce. Some of the data have since been slightly revised by the EIA, but too late for incorporation 

here.

sp ace e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts w as th a t fo r F e d e ra l G o v ern m en t p u rc h a s e s of goods and s e rv ic e s fo r n atio n al d e fe n se .64

P r ic e d e fla to rs s e le c te d fo r in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts con­ s is te d of BLS w h o lesale p ric e in d ex es fo r e le c tric a l m a c h in e ry and equipm ent; in te ­ g ra tin g and m e a su rin g in s tru m e n ts ; sw itch- g e a r, sw itch b o ard , e tc . equipm ent; and rad io re c e iv e rs and p h o n o g rap h s. T hese in d ex es w ere c o n v e rte d fro m th e ir 1947-49 b ase to a I960 b a s e . E ach index w as w eighted by an e s tim a te of the re la tiv e im p o rta n c e , b a sed on v alue of sh ip m en ts, of the in d u s­ tr ia l and c o m m e rc ia l p ro d u c ts fo r w hich it w as c o n sid e re d a p p ro p ria te and the av e ra g e of the w eighted in d ex es b ecam e the p ric e d e fla to r fo r in d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l e le c ­ tro n ic s a s a w hole.

T hese p ric e d e fla to rs could be developed only fo r the y e a rs 1954 to I960. F o r 1950 to 1953, sh ip m en ts d ata w ere g rouped d if­ fe re n tly fro m th o se fo r la te r y e a rs , and the w h o lesale p ric e in d ex es c ite d above could not be u se d . F o r 1961 and 1962, the w h o lesale p ric e in d ex es w ere not av ailab le at the tim e of th is study. P ric e d e fla to rs fo r th e se y e a rs w ere obtain ed by e x tra p ­ o lating the 1954-60 d e fla to r s e r ie s back to 1950 and fo rw a rd to 1962. B ased on a v a il­ able evidence on p ric e tre n d s , the I960 index v alue w as a lso u sed fo r 1961 and w as in c re a s e d by 2 p e rc e n t fo r 1962-- le s s th an the e stim a te d annual in c re a s e b etw een 1950 and 1961.65

The BLS w h o lesale p ric e index fo r ra d io s , te le v isio n s e ts , and phonographs w as s e ­ le c te d as the m o st a p p ro p ria te d e fla to r fo r co n su m e r e le c tro n ic s sh ip m e n ts. T his index w as c o n v e rte d fro m its 1947-49 b ase to a 1960 b a s e . No w h o lesale p ric e in d ex es w ere av ailab le beyond I960, and v alu es fo r 1961 and 1962 w ere d e riv e d by ex tra p o la tin g the index*s 1950-60 tre n d , w hich w as dow nw ard,

64Index values were derived from Economic Report of the 

President, January 1961, tables C -l and C-2, and Economic

Report of the President, January 1962, tables B -l and B-2.

65Except for the 1960 indexes, which were available only as 

unpublished data at the time of this study, the BLS Wholesale 

Price Indexes used as price deflators came from Bureau of 

Labor Statistics publications. For Electrical Machinery and 

Equipment, indexes for 1954-56 were from BLS Bulletin 1214, 

Wholesale Prices and Price Indexes. 1954-56; for 1957 from 

BLS Bulletin 1235, Wholesale Prices and Price Indexes, 1957; 

and for 1958 and 1959 from BLS Bulletin 1295, Wholesale Prices 

and Price Indexes, 1959. BLS Bulletin 1295 was also the source 

for the 1954-59 values for the three other wholesale price 

indexes used.

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a t a co n sta n t p e r annum r a te . Index n um ­ b e r s w ere not av a ila b le fo r 1953 and 1954, and th ey w ere in te rp o la te d on the b a s is of v a lu e s fo r preceding and subsequent y e a r s .66 *

Since no a p p ro p ria te index s e r ie s w as a v a ila b le fo r e le c tro n ic co m ponents, a p ric e index w as c o n s tru c te d . The ra tio of com ponent sh ip m en ts to e n d -p ro d u c t sh ip ­ m en ts in the b a se y e a r I960 w as applied to the co n stan t d o lla r value of en d -p ro d u c t sh ip m en ts in 1954, obtained th ro u g h p ro ­ c e d u re s d e s c rib e d e a r lie r , to d e riv e a c o n sta n t d o lla r value of com ponent sh ip ­ m en ts fo r the sam e y e a r. T his p ro c e d u re a ssu m e d the sam e ra tio of com ponent to e n d -p ro d u c t sh ip m en ts in 1954 as in I960. B ecau se of the ra p id ly changing p ro d u ct m ix in com ponent sh ip m e n ts, 19 5 4 --th e y e a r in w hich se m ic o n d u c to rs w ere m a r ­ k e te d in siz a b le v o lu m es fo r the f i r s t tim e - - w as c o n sid e re d the e a r lie s t y e a r fo r w hich th is a ssu m p tio n could be v alid ly m ade, and no index v a lu es fo r com ponents w ere a t­ te m p te d fo r y e a rs b e fo re 1954.

A p ric e index fo r 1954 w as c a lc u la te d by dividing the d e riv e d c o n stan t d o lla r v alu e of com ponents sh ip m en ts in 1954 into th e c u r r e n t d o lla r value of such sh ip m e n ts. T his 1954 index and the I960 b a s e -y e a r in d ex of 100 p ro v id ed two p o in ts b etw een w hich to connect a p ric e tre n d lin e . T his tre n d lin e show ed a d eclin e of 14.9 p e rc e n t b etw een the 2 y e a rs . Index v a lu es fo r 1955 to 1959 w ere c o n stru c te d by in te rp o la tin g a co n sta n t ra te of d eclin e along th is tre n d lin e; each v alue re p re s e n te d a p ric e d e­ c r e a s e of 2.34 p e rc e n t fro m th at fo r the p re c e d in g y e a r. The index value c o n stru c te d fo r 1961 a ssu m e d a d e c re a s e fro m I960 of about tw ice th is a v e ra g e annual ra te of d e c lin e , b e c a u se of a sh a rp drop in s e m i­ co n d u cto r p ric e s du rin g 1961. No p ric e index could be c o n stru c te d fo r 1962 b e cau se c u r r e n t d o lla r sh ip m en ts d ata w ere not av a ila b le at the tim e of the study.

C o n stan t d o lla r e s tim a te s fo r r e p la c e ­ m en t and o rig in a l-e q u ip m e n t com ponent sh ip m en ts w ere obtained by u sing the sam e p ric e d e fla to rs a s th o se fo r com ponent sh ip m en ts a s a w hole.

Except for the 1960 index value, which is a preliminary 

figure from Monthly Labor Review, November 1961, index values

are from BLS bulletins. Those for 1950-52 and 1955-58 are 

from BLS Bulletin 1257, Wholesale Prices and Price Indexes, 

1958 and that for 1959 from BLS Bulletin 1295, op. cit.

Projections of Constant Dollar Shipments. T hese p ro je c tio n s , shown in tab le A - l , a re fo r 1970. T hey w ere developed s e p a ra te ly fo r each m a jo r e le c tro n ic p ro d u c t c a te g o ry and added to g e th e r to o b tain p ro je c tio n s fo r the e n tire in d u stry . T hey a ssu m e co n tin u ­ ance of the sam e s h ip m e n ts -to -in v e n to ry re la tio n s h ip s th a t e x iste d durin g the y e a rs c o v e re d by the h is to ric a l s e r ie s u se d fo r the p ro je c tio n s . The follow ing se c tio n s d e­ sc rib e the m ethodology u se d .

D eriv a tio n of P ro je c tio n fo r M ilita ry and Space E le c tro n ic s S h ip m en ts. A lthough the fu tu re tre n d of m ilita ry sp ace e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts is su b je c t to m any u n c e rta in tie s , p ro je c tio n s of th is m a rk e t, w hich acco u n ts fo r h alf o r m o re of a ll e le c tro n ic s s a le s , a re e sp e c ia lly v ita l fo r developing p r o je c ­ tio n s of m anpow er re q u ire m e n ts in e le c ­ tro n ic s m an u factu rin g . The F e d e ra l G ov­ e rn m e n t is v irtu a lly the only c u s to m e r fo r m ilita ry and sp ace p ro d u c ts; its o u tlay s depend on m any fa c to rs , such as the in te r ­ n atio n al situ a tio n , the s ta te of m ilita ry technology, and n a tio n a l g o als co n cern in g the e x p lo ra tio n and u se of sp a c e . B asic a ssu m p tio n s co n cern in g the c o u rs e of th e se fa c to rs d uring the 1960*3 a re c ite d e a r lie r in th is appendix.

By 1970, m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts a re ex p ected to r is e to $10.7 b illio n in co n sta n t I960 d o lla rs (tab le A -2 , colum n 8). T his p ro je c tio n w as d e riv e d f ir s t on a fis c a l y e a r b a s is (tab le A -2 , colum n 7) and th en tra n s la te d to a c a le n d a r y e a r b a s is , fo r c o m p a ra b ility w ith p ro je c ­ tio n s fo r o th e r m a jo r e le c tro n ic p ro d u c t c a te g o rie s . The p ro je c tio n w as d e riv e d by adding to g e th e r p ro je c tio n s of e le c tro n ic s ex p e n d itu re s by both the D e p a rtm e n t of D efense (DOD) and th e c iv ilia n space agency (NASA). In te r m s of tab le A -2 , the d ata in colum n 7 r e p re s e n t the sum of the fig u re s in colum n 4 (DOD e le c tro n ic s ex p e n d itu re s) and colum n 6 (NASA e le c tro n ic s ex p en d i­ tu re s ). DOD and NASA e le c tro n ic s ex p en d i­ tu r e s a re tre a te d in th is study a s c o te rm i­ nous w ith m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic sh ip m e n ts, sin ce th e se two F e d e ra l a g e n c ie s account fo r v irtu a lly a ll e x p e n d itu re s fo r m ilita ry and sp ace e le c tro n ic s . O nly r e la ­ tiv e ly sm a ll am o u n ts fo r sp ace e le c tro n ic s a re acco u n ted fo r by o th e r F e d e ra l a g e n c ie s, such a s the A tom ic E n e rg y C o m m issio n , the F e d e ra l A v iatio n A gency, and the N a­ tio n a l B u reau of S ta n d a rd s, and by p riv a te e n te rp ris e engaged in sp ace co m m u n icatio n s 

s y s te m s .

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The follow ing p ro c e d u re s w ere u se d to d e riv e the 1970 p ro je c tio n s in co lu m n s 4 and 6, tab le A -2, and to c o n v e rt the fis c a l / e a r fig u re s in colum n 7 of th a t tab le to the c a le n d a r y e a r fig u re s in colum n 8.

P ro je c tio n of POD e le c tro n ic s exp en d i­ tu r e s (colum n 4, tab le A -2 ), Two c o r r e la ­ tio n s w ere m ade fo r th is p ro je c tio n of $9.0 b illio n fo r 1970. F ir s t, a le a s t s q u a re s s tra ig h t line w as fitte d to DOD e le c tro n ic s e x p e n d itu re s fo r the y e a rs 1955 to 1963 (colum n 4) a n d e x tra p o la te d to 1970 (m ethod 1). Second, a s tra ig h t line w as fitte d to the p e rc e n t w hich DOD e le c tro n ic s e x p e n d itu re s fo r the y e a rs 1955 to 1963 (colum n 4) w ere of DOD ex p e n d itu re s fo r m ilita ry fu nctions in the sam e y e a rs (co l­ um n 2). T his tre n d lin e w as e x tra p o la te d to 1970, and the p e rc e n t th a t re s u lte d w as ap p lied to the 1970 p ro je c tio n in colum n 2, d e riv e d , a s d e s c rib e d la te r , to develop a 1970 p ro je c tio n fo r DOD e le c tro n ic s expend­ itu r e s (m ethod 2). C o efficien ts of c o r r e la ­ tio n w ere +.99 fo r m ethod 1 and +.96 fo r m ethod 2 .67 The p ro je c tio n se le c te d fo r th is study la y betw een the two p ro je c tio n s d e s c rib e d .

On the b a s is of in fo rm e d opinion of in ­ d u s try and g o v ern m en t p e rso n n e l a s w ell a s lite r a tu r e in the field , it w as a ssu m e d th a t DOD e x p e n d itu re s fo r m ilita ry functions w ould r is e to ro ughly $53 b illio n by 1970, in co n sta n t I960 d o lla rs (colum n 2). To ch eck on the re a s o n a b le n e s s of th is a ssu m p ­ tio n , the h is to ric a l re la tio n sh ip betw een th e se e x p e n d itu re s and G ro ss N atio n al P ro d u c t (GNP) w ere an aly zed . A le a s t s q u a re s tre n d lin e w as fitte d to the p e r ­ c e n ts w hich DOD ex p e n d itu re s fo r m ilita ry fu n ctio n s w ere of G N P, fo r the y e a rs 1955 to 1963 (colum n 3), and e x tra p o la te d to 1970. The re s u lta n t p ro p o rtio n of 7.0 p e r - c e n t--w h ic h a s s u m e s a continued d eclin e in the ra tio of DOD e x p e n d itu re s fo r m ili­ ta r y fu nctions to G N P --w h en applied to the GNP p ro je c tio n of $755.1 b illio n fo r 1970 (colum n 1), re s u lts in an e s tim a te of DOD m ilita ry e x p e n d itu re s fo r 1970 of $53 b illio n .

67 These simple correlations were checked with multiple correlations. which resulted in sim ilar coefficients of correlation. 

The multiple correlations were (1) DOD electronics expenditures 

for 1955 to 1963 (column 4) with DOD military expenditures for the same years (column 2) and time; and (2) the percents which 

DOD electronics expenditures were of DOD military expenditures, for 1955 to 1963, with DOD military expenditures for the 

same years (column 2) and time.

The a ssu m p tio n of $53 b illio n fo r DOD m ilita ry e x p e n d itu re s fo r 1970 is h ig h e r th an the e s tim a te of $49 b illio n fo r 1970 w hich w ould re s u lt fro m ex tra p o la tin g a s tra ig h t-lin e tre n d fitte d to DOD m ilita ry e x p e n d itu re s fo r the y e a rs 1955 to 1963. The 1955-63 d ata do not len d th e m se lv e s w ell to a s tra ig h t lin e fo rm u la , in view of a b re a k in the tre n d , w ith re la tiv e ly stab le ex p en d itu re le v e ls b etw een 1955 and I960 and r a th e r ra p id grow th b etw een I960 and 1963.

P ro je c tio n of NASA e le c tro n ic s ex p en d i­ tu r e s (colum n 6, tab le A -2 ). E s tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s of NASA e le c tro n ic s ex p en d i­ tu r e s (colum n 6) w ere d e riv e d by c a lc u la t­ ing th em a t ro u g h ly o n e -fo u rth of e s tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s fo r NASA to ta l e x p e n d itu re s (colum n 5). T his p ro p o rtio n w as u se d b e ­ cau se it is e stim a te d th a t about h alf of N ASA's to ta l e x p e n d itu re s a re d is b u rs e d to e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g e s ta b lish m e n ts fo r sp ace r e s e a r c h , developm ent, and p r o ­ c u re m e n t,68 and " a p p ro x im a te ly fifty cen ts of e v e ry d o lla r spent fo r sp ace sy ste m s goes into e le c tr o n ic s ." 69 The e s tim a te s of NASA to ta l e x p e n d itu re s fo r fis c a l y e a rs 1958 to 1963 a re b a se d on F e d e ra l b u d g et­ a r y in fo rm a tio n , and the p ro je c tio n fo r 1970 of $6.0 b illio n , in co n stan t I960 d o lla rs , is b a se d on in fo rm e d opinions of g o v ern m en t and in d u stry p e rs o n n e l.70

C o n v e rsio n fro m f is c a l to c a le n d a r y e a r b a s is (colum ns 7 and 8, tab le A -2 ). F o r the y e a rs 1955 to 1963, th is c o n v e rsio n w as b a se d la rg e ly on e s tim a te s of the E le c ­ tro n ic In d u s trie s A sso ciatio n (E IA ) of m ili­ ta r y e le c tro n ic sh ip m en ts, w hich a re a v a il­ able on a c a le n d a r y e a r b a s is a s w ell as the fis c a l y e a r b a s is shown in tab le A -2 , colum n 4. The EIA c a le n d a r y e a r e s tim a te s w ere d eflated to c o n sta n t I960 d o lla rs w ith the sam e p ric e index u se d to d eflate the

68 This estimate is based on the opinions of government and 

industry personnel. As earlier noted, electronics employment in 

this study relates to manufacturing industries and not to the 

Armed Forces, the Federal Government, universities, and nonprofit research centers.

88 “ Electronics in Space,** by James E. Webb, Administrator 

of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Electronic Age. New York, autumn 1961, p. 11.

70 For examples of relevant statements to this effect, see 

Independent Offices Appropriations for 1963, Hearings before a Subcommittee of the Committee on Appropriations, U.S. House 

of Representatives, 87th Cong., 2d. sess., pt. HI, p. 443; and 

“ The $ 50-Billion Space Push,** Missiles and Rockets, Washington, D.C., Nov. 27,1961, pp. 46-49.

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EIA fis c a l y e a r e s tim a te s , and added, fo r the y e a rs sin ce 1958, to c o n s ta n t-d o lla r NASA e le c tro n ic s e x p e n d itu re s. The r e ­ su lta n t su m s r e p re s e n t the c a le n d a r y e a r e s tim a te s of m ilita ry and space e le c tro n ic sh ip m en ts show n in tab le A - 2, colum n 8. The fa c t th a t NASA e le c tro n ic s ex pendi­ tu r e s w ere on a fis c a l y e a r b a s is did not in tro d u c e a la rg e e r r o r b e c a u se of th e ir c o m p a ra tiv e ly s m a ll s iz e . The 1970 p r o ­ je c tio n on a c a le n d a r y e a r b a s is w as d e ­ riv e d by applying to the I960 c a le n d a r y e a r e s tim a te of m ilita ry and sp ace e le c ­ tro n ic sh ip m en ts ($5.10 b illio n --ta b le A -2 , colum n 8) the p ro je c te d in c re a s e of 110 p e rc e n t in such sh ip m en ts b etw een fis c a l y e a rs I960 and 1970 (colum n 7).

D e riv a tio n of P ro je c tio n fo r In d u s tria l and C o m m e rc ia l E le c tro n ic s S h ip m en ts. The 1970 p ro je c tio n fo r in d u s tria l and co m ­ m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts of $4.1 b il­ lio n , in co n sta n t I960 d o lla rs , a s s u m e s a lo w er r a te of grow th fo r th e se sh ip m en ts d u rin g the r e s t of the 1960fs th an during the 1950-62 p e rio d (table A - l) . To develop the p ro je c tio n , in d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l sh ip ­ m en ts in co n stan t I960 d o lla rs , a lre a d y a v a ila b le in tab le A - l , w e re c o rre la te d w ith o th e r s e r ie s w hose m ovem ent m ight lo g i­ c a lly be re la te d to o r a s s o c ia te d w ith th e ir m o v em en t. The r e s u lts w ere th en m odified in the lig h t of in fo rm ed ju d g m en ts about the fu tu re c o u rse of th e se re la tio n s h ip s .

The s e r ie s w ith w hich in d u s tria l-c o m ­ m e rc ia l sh ip m en ts w ere c o rre la te d a re am ong th o se lis te d in tab le A - 3 fo r the y e a rs 1950 to I960, the la tte r y e a r being the la te s t fo r w hich d ata w ere a v ailab le at the tim e of th is study. The s e r ie s w hich se e m e d lo g ic a lly re la te d to o r a ss o c ia te d w ith in d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts and th e re fo re c o rre la te d w ith th em w ere the follow ing: GNP; g ro s s p r i ­ v ate d o m estic in v estm en t; p ro d u c e rs 1 d u r­ able equipm ent; ex p e n d itu re s fo r new p lan t and equipm ent; the F e d e ra l R e se rv e B o ard (FR B ) index of in d u s tria l pro d u ctio n ; and k ilo w a tt-h o u rs of e le c tr ic ity p ro d u ced by o r sold to in d u s tria l and c o m m e rc ia l e s ­ ta b lish m e n ts.

G raphic c o rre la tio n s in the fo rm of s c a tte r d ia g ra m s w ere p re p a re d , in w hich d ata fo r the y e a rs 1950 to I960 fo r each of the s e r ie s w ere p lo tted a g a in st in d u s tria l- c o m m e rc ia l sh ip m en ts fo r the sam e y e a rs .

T h ree of the s e r ie s show ed a c lo se r e l a ­ tio n sh ip w ith in d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l sh ip ­ m en ts: K ilo w a tt-h o u rs of e le c tric ity , G NP, and the FR B in d u s tria l p ro d u c tio n index. C o efficien ts of c o rre la tio n w ere +.95, + .94, and + .89, re s p e c tiv e ly . T re n d lin e s w ere fitte d to the p lo tted p o in ts by v is u a l in s p e c ­ tio n in each of th e se th re e s c a tte r d ia ­

g ra m s .

The tre n d lin e s w ere e x tra p o la te d to 1970, and fro m th em in d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l sh ip m en ts fo r 1970 w ere p ro je c te d , a fte r a d ju stm e n ts to re fle c t ex p ected ch an g es in h is to ric a l re la tio n s h ip s betw een e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts and each of the th re e s e r ie s . P ro je c tio n s w ere e x tra p o la te d to 1970 by m ean s of s c a tte r d ia g ra m s fo r the y e a rs 1950 to 1960 b etw een GNP and the FR B index and b etw een GNP and k ilo w a tt-h o u rs of e le c tric ity . A tre n d lin e w as v isu a lly fitte d to the p lo tted po in ts in each d ia g ra m and extended to 1970, on the b a s is of the GNP p ro je c tio n fo r 1970 (a lre a d y a v a il­ a b le - - s e e ta b le A -2 ). A s a check on the r e s u lts of th e se p ro c e d u re s , o th e r s c a tte r d ia g ra m s w ere m ade, fo r ex am p le, betw een the FR B index and new plan t and equipm ent e x p e n d itu re s.

D e riv a tio n of P ro je c tio n fo r C o n su m er E le c tro n ic s S h ip m en ts. The 1970p ro je c tio n fo r c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic s sh ip m e n ts, $3.5 b illio n in co n sta n t I960 d o lla rs (table A - l) , w as m ade in the sam e w ay a s th a t fo r in d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l p ro d u c ts, th at is , by c o rre la tin g c o n su m e r sh ip m en ts w ith o th e r s e r ie s w hose m ovem ent m ight lo g ic a lly be re la te d to o r a s s o c ia te d w ith th e ir m ovem ent and m odifying the re s u lts in the lig h t of in ­ fo rm e d ju d g m en ts co n cern in g the fu tu re c o u rse of th e se re la tio n s h ip s .

The s e r ie s w ith w hich c o n su m e r sh ip ­ m en ts w ere c o r re la te d a re am ong th o se lis te d in tab le A - 3. They c o n s is t of GNP; p e rs o n a l con su m p tio n e x p e n d itu re s; ex ­ p e n d itu re s fo r fu rn itu re and h ousehold equipm ent; e x p e n d itu re s fo r ra d io and TV re c e iv e rs , e tc .; and n u m b er of p rim a ry fa m ilie s --h u s b a n d and wife p re s e n t. G rap h ic c o rre la tio n s in the fo rm of s c a tte r d ia ­ g ra m s w ere p re p a re d , in w hich d ata fo r the y e a rs 1950 to I960 fo r each of the s e r ie s w ere p lo tted a g a in st c o n su m e r p ro d u ct sh ip m en ts fo r the sam e y e a rs . E xcept in the c a se of fu rn itu re and h ousehold equip­ m ent e x p e n d itu re s, a ll the s c a tte r d ia g ra m s

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show ed a clo se re la tio n s h ip 71 and tre n d lin e s w ere fitted v isu a lly to the p lo tted p o in ts.

P ro je c tio n s fo r 1970 w ere next developed fo r each of the s e r ie s , w ith the h elp of w hich c o n su m e r e le c tro n ic sh ip m en ts w ere p ro je c te d fo r the sam e y e a r. A p ro je c tio n fo r 1970 w as a lre a d y a v ailab le fo r GNP in c o n sta n t I960 d o lla rs (table A -2). A s c a tte r d ia g ra m w as m ade fo r the y e a rs 1950 to I960 betw een GNP and one of its com po­ n e n ts - - p e r s o n a l co n su m p tio n e x p e n d itu re s. The tre n d line fitte d v isu a lly to the p lo tted p o in ts in the d ia g ra m w as extended, on the b a s is of the GNP p ro je c tio n , to 1970. A p ro je c tio n e s tim a te fo r p e rs o n a l co n su m p ­ tio n e x p e n d itu re s w as th en d e te rm in e d fro m th is e x tra p o la te d lin e . The sam e b a sic m ethod w as u sed to d e riv e p ro je c tio n s fo r ra d io and TV re c e iv e rs , e tc ., ex cep t th at th is s e r ie s w as c o rre la te d w ith fu rn itu re and household equipm ent ex p e n d itu re s r a th e r th an w ith G N P. P ro je c tio n s fo r 1970 fo r p r im a r y fam ily fo rm a tio n s w ere a v a il­ able fro m a C en su s B u reau s o u r c e .72

D e riv a tio n of P ro je c tio n fo r E le c tro n ic C om ponents S h ip m en ts. The p ro je c tio n developed fo r 1970 fo r e le c tro n ic com po­ n e n ts sh ip m e n ts, in co n stan t I960 d o lla rs , is $5.49 b illio n , of w hich $1.50 b illio n is fo r re p la c e m e n t p a r ts and the r e s t fo r o rig in a l-e q u ip m e n t com ponents (table A - 1). The f i r s t step in developing th e se p r o je c ­ tio n s w as to com pute the p ro p o rtio n w hich co m ponents w ere to end p ro d u c ts in I960. T his p ro p o rtio n (33.7 p e r c e n t--c a lc u la te d fro m s ta tis tic s in ta b le A-l) is ex p ected to d e c re a s e during the 1960*s, and although any e s tim a te of the ex ten t of the d e c re a s e m u st be tre a te d a s only a b ro a d ap p ro x im a ­ tio n , the ra tio p ro je c te d fo r 1970 fo r th is study re p re s e n te d a slig h t d eclin e, to 30 p e r c e n t.73 T his p ro p o rtio n , m u ltip lied by

71 Coefficients of correlation for the relationship between consumer electronic shipments and the other series were as follows: With personal consumption expenditures—+.89; with 

expenditures for radio and TV receivers and with number of 

primary families—+.85 in each case; and with GNP—+.83.

77 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, 

Population Characteristics, Series P-20, No. 90, released Dec. 

29,1958, table 5, Series B projections.

w One major reason behind the projection of a decreasing 

ratio , of components to end products is that the replacement 

rate of components appears to be trending downward with the 

growing use of solid state components and the decreasing relative importance of electron tubes. Another is the increasing 

versatility and efficiency of components, which has tended to 

lower the proportion which their value represents of total 

end-equipment value.

en d -p ro d u c t sh ip m en ts a n tic ip a te d fo r 1970, p ro v id ed a p ro je c tio n fo r co m ponents sh ip ­ m en ts fo r th at y e a r.

P ro je c tio n s of 1970 sh ip m en ts of re p la c e ­ m ent p a r ts w ere developed th ro u g h the u se of s c a tte r d ia g ra m s c o rre la tin g sh ip m en ts of (1) end p ro d u c ts w ith re p la c e m e n t p a r ts , and (2) com ponents w ith re p la c e m e n t p a r ts . H is to ric a l sh ip m en ts d ata fo r th e se c o r r e ­ la tio n s a re a v a ila b le in c o n sta n t d o lla r v alu es in tab le A - l . 74 T ren d lin e s w ere fitte d fre e h a n d to th e se d ata and e x tra p o ­ la te d to 1970 on the b a s is of p ro je c tio n s fo r th a t y e a r fo r e n d -p ro d u c t and com po­ n en ts sh ip m en ts, d e riv e d th ro u g h p ro c e ­ d u re s a lre a d y d e s c rib e d in th is and im m e ­ d ia te ly p re c e d in g se c tio n s. The p ro je c tio n s se le c te d fo r re p la c e m e n t p a r ts re p re s e n te d the m idpoint b etw een the e x tra p o la te d tre n d lin e s, w hich w ere s im ila r to one a n o th e r. The p ro je c tio n fo r 1970 sh ip m en ts of o rig in a l-e q u ip m e n t com ponents w as d e riv e d a s the p ro je c te d d iffe re n ce betw een sh ip ­ m en ts of to ta l com ponents and of re p la c e ­

m ent p a r ts .

Derivation of Electronics Shipm ents-Per- Employee E stim ates and Projections. S h ip m e n ts-p e r-e m p lo y e e estimates and p ro je c tio n s w ere developed fo r the study on the b a s is of p ro d u ct sh ip m en t a n a ly se s w hich a p p e a r in the 1958 C en su s of M anu­ f a c tu r e s .75 The 1958 C en su s is the m o st re c e n t co m p lete count of m an u factu rin g in the U nited S tates; le g is la tio n a u th o riz e s a ce n su s of m a n u fa c tu re s e v e ry 5 y e a rs . A nnual su rv e y s a re conducted in the in te r - c e n sa l y e a rs , but th ey a re m ade on a sam p le b a s is and do not include the d e ta ile d a n a ly sis of p ro d u ct sh ip m en ts contained in the C en su s v o lu m es and need ed fo r the m ethodology u se d h e re .

The d e riv a tio n of s h ip m e n ts -p e r-e m ­ ployee fig u re s w as m ade on the b a s is of the 20 SIC 4 -d ig it in d u s trie s w hich re p o rte d fo r 1958 at le a s t $25 m illio n in e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts each . T h ese 20 in d u s trie s , a re b eliev ed to acco u n t fo r n e a rly a ll e le c tro n ic s

74Coefficients of correlation were +.95 for the relationship

between end products and replacement parts and +.91 for the relationship between components and replacement parts.

75 The Census statistics used appear in U.S. Bureau of the 

Census, U.S. Census of Manufactures: 1958, Vol. II, Industry 

Statistics, tables 5A, 5B, 6A, and 8. In the case of one industry— 

SIC 3571—the Census table comparable to table 6A in other 

industries was numbered table 6, and, in the absence of any 

table 8, table 4 was used for employment totals.

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sh ip m e n ts. In sev en of th e se in d u s trie s , e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts in 1958 re p re s e n te d h alf o r m o re of the value of the industry* s to ta l sh ip m en ts; betw een 1958 and 1961, a s noted e a r lie r in th is appendix, em ploym ent in th e se sev en in d u s trie s a v e ra g e d about th re e -fo u rth s of the to ta l e le c tro n ic s e m ­ ploym ent e stim a te d in th is study.

SIC 4 -digit industries with at least $25 million in electronics 

shipments each, and with electronics shipments representing half or more of the value of total shipments (1958 data)

Industry

Number Industry title

3651 • . • .Radio and television receiving sets, except communication types 3652 . . . .Phonograph records1

3662 • • • .Radio and television transmitting, signaling, and 

detection equipment and apparatus

3671 . . . .Radio and television receiving type electron tubes, except cathode ray

3672 • • • .Cathode ray picture tubes 3673 • • • .Transmitting, industrial, and special purpose elec­ tron tubes 3679 • • • .Electronic components and accessories, not elsewhere classified

1 Phonograph records are not uniformly considered to be an 

electronic product. They are treated as electronic in this report 

chiefly because the shipments estimates of the report are based upon figures of the Electronic Industries Association which 

include phonograph records.

SIC 4-digit industries with at least $25 million in electronics shipments each, and with electronics shipments representing 

less than half of the value of total shipments (1958 data)

Industry

Number Industry title

19251. . . .Guided m issiles, complete 3571 • • • .Computing and accounting machines, including cash 

registers 3611 • • • .Electric measuring instruments and test equipment 

3622 • • • .Industrial controls 3661 • • • .Telephone and telegraph apparatus 3693 . . . .RadiographicX-ray, fluoroscopic X-ray, therapeutic X-ray, and other X-ray apparatus and tubes

3721 • • • .Aircraft 3722 • . • .Aircraft engines and engine parts 3729 . • • .Aircraft parts and auxiliary equipment, not elsewhere classified 3811 • • • .Engineering, laboratory, and scientific and research 

instruments and associated equipment 

3821 • . • .Mechanical measuring and controlling instruments, except automatic temperature controls 

3842 • • • .Orthopedic, prosthetic, and surgical appliances and 

supplies

3931 . , . .Musical instruments and parts

i This industry is a special Census grouping, and is part of SIC industry number 1929--Ammunition, not elsewhere classified.

The f i r s t p ro c e d u re w as to d e te rm in e the p ro p o rtio n of to ta l sh ip m en ts w hich w as e le c tro n ic in each of the 20 SIC 4 - digit

in d u s trie s . S hipm ents of ea c h in d u s try a re divided in the C en su s s ta tis tic s into th re e g ro u p s: (1) P ro d u c ts c la s s ifie d in th at in ­ d u s try and th e re fo re p r im a r y to i t ; 76 (2) p ro d u c ts c la s s ifie d in o th e r in d u s trie s (s e c ­ o n d ary p ro d u c ts); and (3) m isc e lla n e o u s re c e ip ts fo r c o n tra c t and c o m m issio n w ork, s a le s of p ro d u c ts bought and re s o ld w ithout fu rth e r m an u fa c tu re , e tc .

The p r im a r y p ro d u c ts c a te g o ry , q u an ti­ ta tiv e ly the la r g e s t, w as the m o st re a d ily a llo cab le a s betw een e le c tro n ic and non­ e le c tro n ic ite m s sin ce the g r e a te s t am ount of C en su s d e ta il- - to a 7 - dig it le v e l- - is p ro v id ed fo r it. The ch ief m eth o d o lo g ical p ro b le m w as th a t the p r im a r y p ro d u ct sh ip ­ m en ts fo r w hich d e ta il is given a re th o se of a ll m an u factu rin g e s ta b lis h m e n ts , w hich m ay in clude som e e s ta b lish m e n ts not c la s ­ sified in the 4 - d igit SIC in d u s try being an aly zed . It w as th e re fo re a ssu m e d , a fte r d e te rm in in g the p e rc e n t of a ll p r im a r y p ro d u c ts w hich w as e le c tro n ic , th a t the sam e p ro p o rtio n ap p lied to the p r im a ry p ro d u c ts of the 4 - dig it SIC in d u s try being an aly zed . T his a ssu m p tio n w as g e n e ra lly f a ir ly a c c u ra te sin ce m o st of the in d u s trie s being an aly zed acco u n ted fo r 80 p e rc e n t o r m o re of a ll the p ro d u c ts sh ip p ed in the U nited S tates w hich w ere p r im a r y to th e m .77 *F u rth e rm o re , in the c a s e of the sev en 4 - d ig it in d u s trie s p r im a r ily engaged in e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g and accounting fo r m o st e le c tro n ic s em p lo y m en t, th is a s ­ su m p tio n w as not re q u ire d sin ce a ll th e ir p rim a ry p ro d u c ts w ere know n to be e le c ­ tro n ic and no a llo c a tio n p ro c e d u re w as 

n e c e s s a ry .

A lthough the se c o n d a ry p ro d u c ts c a te g o ry g e n e ra lly could be a llo c a te d betw een e le c ­ tro n ic and n o n e le c tro n ic , so m e tim e s th is could be done only in an ap p ro x im a te w ay. E stim a tin g w as often re q u ire d fo r v a rio u s re a s o n s , such a s the e x iste n c e of gaps in C en su s d ata to avoid d isc lo sin g in fo rm a tio n fo r indiv id u al co m p a n ie s. The m isc e lla n e o u s re c e ip ts c a te g o ry , w hich w as q u a n tita tiv e ly

76 According to the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Census of 

Manufactures: 1958, Vol. II, “ The group of products assigned 

to an industry is said to be ’primary* to that industry.. • .an 

establishment is classified in a particular industry if its production of the primary products of that industry exceeds in 

value its production of products of any other single industry.** 77 In more technical language, the “ coverage ratio** of these

industries was 80 percent or more. According to the Bureau of 

the Census, ibid., a coverage ratio is “ theproportion of primary 

products shipped by the industry to total shipments of such 

products by all manufacturing industries.**

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qu ite sm a ll re la tiv e to the o th e r two c a te ­ g o rie s , could not be a llo c a te d b etw een e le c ­ tro n ic and n o n e le c tro n ic a c tiv itie s b e c a u se of in su ffic ie n t C en su s d e ta il.

A fte r d e term in in g by the above p ro c e ­ d u re s the p ro p o rtio n of to ta l sh ip m en ts w hich w as e le c tro n ic in each of the 20 SIC 4 - d ig it in d u s tr ie s ,78 the next step w as to m u ltip ly th is p ro p o rtio n by to ta l em p lo y ­ m en t in the in d u stry . The re s u lta n t p ro d u ct re p re s e n te d o u r e s tim a te of the n u m b er of w o rk e rs in th a t in d u s try engaged in e le c ­ tro n ic s m an u factu rin g . T his equating of sh ip m en t ra tio s w ith em ploym ent ra tio s re q u ire d the a ssu m p tio n th at e le c tro n ic s and n o n e le c tro n ic s w o rk e rs p ro d u ce equal sh ip m en t v a lu e s, and excluded the c o n sid ­ e ra tio n th a t e le c tro n ic s w o rk e rs m ay be engaged p a rt tim e on n o n e le c tro n ic s sh ip ­

m en ts o r v ice v e r s a .

D ividing th e se e le c tro n ic s em ploym ent e s tim a te s into the e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en t e s tim a te s u se d to d e riv e th em p ro d u ced a n sh ip m en ts p e r e le c tro n ic s em ployee" v alu e fo r each of the 20 SIC in d u s trie s .

E ach in d u s try v alue w as w eighted a c c o rd ­ ing to the ra tio w hich e le c tro n ic s sh ip m en ts in th a t in d u s try b o re to e le c tro n ic s sh ip ­ m e n ts in the m a jo r e le c tro n ic p ro d u ct c a te ­ g o ry in w hich the in d u s try w ould be c la s s i­ fie d . The w eighted v a lu e s w ere u sed to o b tain s h ip m e n ts-p e r-e m p lo y e e e s tim a te s fo r 1958 fo r each of the fo u r m a jo r p ro d u ct c a te g o rie s u sed in the study. T h ese e s ti­ m a te s w ere th en d eflated to c o n stan t I960 d o lla rs , w ith the sam e p ric e in d ex es u sed to deflate to ta l sh ip m en ts fo r each m a jo r p ro d u c t c a te g o ry . The next ste p w as to develop co m p a ra b le e s tim a te s , in the sam e 1960 d o lla rs , fo r the o th e r y e a rs fo r w hich em ploym ent e s tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s w ere m ad e- - 1959, I960, 1961, and 1970.

The sig n ifican t c o rre c tio n needed to con­ v e r t 1958 s h ip m e n ts-p e r-e m p lo y e e e s ti­ m a te s into e s tim a te s fo r o th e r y e a rs in ­ volved ad ju stin g fo r ch an g es in sh ip m en ts p e r w o rk e r. T his w as done by m ultiplying the 1958 fig u re s by e stim a te d annual in ­ c r e a s e s in sh ip m en ts p e r w o rk e r in each

78 Electronics shipments equaled primary plus secondary 

electronic-product shipments; total shipments equaled primary plus secondary product shipments and also miscellaneous re ­

ceipts.

m a jo r p ro d u ct c a te g o ry . T h ese e stim a te d sh ip m en t in c re a s e s w ere d iffe re n t fo r each c a te g o ry , re fle c tin g v a ria tio n s in such th in g s a s p ro d u ctio n p r o c e s s e s , te c h n o lo g i­ c a l d ev elo p m en ts, and R&D a c tiv ity . The in c re a s e s fo r the p ro d u c t c a te g o rie s w ere so c a lc u la ted , h ow ever, th at th e ir a v e ra g e , w eighted acco rd in g to the e stim a te d value of sh ip m en ts of th e se c a te g o rie s fo r the y e a rs 1959-61 and 1970, a p p ro x im a te d a p e r annum in c re a s e of 2.9 p e rc e n t co m ­ pounded. T his is equal to th e e stim a te d ra te of annual in c re a s e o v e r the 1947-60 p e rio d in m an u factu rin g output p e r m an ­ h o u r ,79 and a s s u m e s no ch an g es in h o u rs w orked p e r em p lo y ee.

The 1947-60 annual in c re a s e in m an u fac­ tu rin g output p e r m a n -h o u r w as u se d a s the b e st av a ila b le a p p ro x im a tio n of the annual in c re a s e in sh ip m en ts p e r em ployee in e le c tro n ic s m an u factu rin g , d e sp ite d iffe r­ en ces b etw een the co n cep ts of output p e r m a n -h o u r and sh ip m en ts p e r em p lo y ee. A lthough the re s u lta n t ap p ro x im a tio n s of annual sh ip m e n ts -p e r-e m p lo y e e in c re a s e s a re c o n sid e re d adequate fo r th e ir intended p u rp o se of a s s is tin g in developing em p lo y ­ m ent e s tim a te s and p ro je c tio n s , th e y do not re p r e s e n t m e a s u re s of ch an g es in o u t­ put p e r w o rk e r and should not be c o n stru e d a s such.

T able A -4 p r e s e n ts the s h ip m e n ts -p e r- em ployee e s tim a te s , developed by the above p ro c e d u re s , fo r e ach m a jo r p ro d u c t c a te ­ g o ry fo r the y e a rs 1958, 1959, I960, 1961, and 1970. The e s tim a te s d e riv e d fo r e le c ­ tro n ic com ponents w ere u se d fo r the two b reakdow ns of co m p o n en ts, o rig in a l eq u ip ­ m ent and re p la c e m e n t p a r ts . The tab le a lso show s to ta l sh ip m en ts fo r the sam e y e a rs , by p ro d u ct c a te g o ry ; th e se sh ip m en t e s ti­ m a te s a re b a se d on EIA d ata and a p p e a r a lso in ta b le s 14 and A - l . 80 D ividing sh ip ­ m en ts p e r em ployee into to ta l sh ip m e n ts, by p ro d u ct c a te g o ry and y e a r, r e s u lts in e s tim a te s of e le c tro n ic s em p lo y m en t by c a te g o ry and y e a r. T h ese em p lo y m en t e s ti­ m a te s, the end p ro d u ct of th is p h ase of the m ethodology, a p p e a r in ta b le A -4 .

79According to Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates in U.S. 

Department of Labor News Release 4698, “ Output per Man-hour 

in the Private Economy in 1960,** August 18,1961, p. 2. "Except that in table A-4, unlike tables 14 and A -l, it was 

necessary to the methodology to include some double counting 

in the value of total electronics shipments (see explanation in 

footnote 3, table A-4).

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DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT ESTI­ MATES AND PROJECTIONS BETWEEN NONPRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION WORKERS AND BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN WORKERS,BY MAJOR ELEC­ TRONIC PRODUCT CATEGORY

T his m ethodology w as b a se d on d ata fo r th e y e a rs 1958 to 1961 p u b lish ed by the B u reau of L ab o r S ta tis tic s in its E m p lo y ­ m ent and E a rn in g s s e r ie s , w hich p ro v id e s em p lo y m en t s ta tis tic s by in d u s try not only fo r a ll em p lo y ees but s e p a ra te ly fo r p r o ­ d u ctio n w o rk e rs and fo r w om en w o rk e rs . The d ata u se d c o v e re d the sev en SIC 4- d igit in d u s trie s p r im a r ily engaged in e le c ­ tro n ic s m a n u factu rin g . The BLS em p lo y ­ m en t s ta tis tic s do not fu rn ish in fo rm a tio n in d iv id u ally fo r each of the sev en in d u s trie s ; som e a re a v ailab le only in com bined fo rm (tab le A - 5). SIC in d u s trie s 3651 (rad io and te le v is io n re c e iv in g se ts) and 3652 (phono­ g ra p h re c o rd s ) a re com bined a s SIC 365. SIC 3662 (rad io and te le v isio n co m m u n ica­ tio n equipm ent) is show n ind iv id u ally , but SIC 3671, 3672, and 3673 (each one c o v e r­ ing c e rta in ty p es of e le c tro n tu b es) a re a v ailab le only in com bined fo rm . SIC 3679 (e le c tro n ic com ponents o th e r th an tu b es) is show n in d iv id u ally . SIC 3671, 3672, 3673, and 3679, com bined a s SIC 367, r e p re s e n t the e le c tro n ic com ponents and a c c e s s o r ie s 

g ro u p .

To u se the BLS em p loym ent s ta tis tic s fo r a ll e m p lo y ees, p ro d u ctio n w o rk e rs , and w om en w o rk e rs , it w as n e c e s s a r y to co n ­ v e r t the fig u re s fro m SIC in d u s trie s to the m a jo r p ro d u ct c a te g o rie s u sed in th is study. T his w as done by assu m in g th at SIC 365 w as the sam e a s the c o n su m e r p ro d u c ts c a te g o ry , SIC 3662 the sam e a s the m ilita ry -s p a c e and in d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l p ro d u c t c a te g o rie s com bined, and SIC 367 the sam e a s the e le c tro n ic com ponents c a te g o ry . B ecau se of the fo rm in w hich the BLS d ata a re a v a ila b le , e s tim a te s fo r the m ilita ry -s p a c e and in d u s tria l-c o m m e rc ia l p ro d u c t c a te g o rie s could not be d e riv e d s e p a ra te ly but only a s a com bined group, w hile on the o th e r hand, e s tim a te s fo r com ponents could be b ro k e n down betw een tu b es and com ponents o th e r th an tu b e s. The v a lid ity of th e se c o n v e rsio n s is sup­ p o rte d by the fa c t th a t, fo r e v e ry y e a r betw een 1958 and 1961, em ploym ent in each SIC g roup (365, 3662, and 367) eq ualed ro u g h ly th re e -fifth s o r m o re of the e m ­

ploym ent e s tim a te d in th is study fo r the co m p a ra b le p ro d u c t c a te g o ry .

The c o n v e rsio n of SIC in d u s try gro u p s to m a jo r p ro d u c t c a te g o rie s m ade it p o s­ sible to apply the p e rc e n ts in tab le A - 5, w hich a re in te r m s of SIC g ro u p s, to the em p lo y m en t e s tim a te s of th is study, w hich w ere developed by m a jo r p ro d u c t c a te g o ry . In th is w ay, break d o w n s of n o n p ro d u ctio n and p ro d u c tio n and m en and w om en e m ­ ploym ent w e re d e riv e d by m a jo r p ro d u c t c a te g o ry fo r the y e a rs 1958 to 1961 (ch. 4, ta b le s 15 and 18).

The d ata in ta b le A - 5 a lso p e rm itte d the c a lc u la tio n of p e r annum r a te s of change betw een 1958 and 1961 in n o n p ro d u ctio n and p ro d u c tio n and m en and w om en w o rk e r r a tio s . P ro je c tio n s fo r 1970 w ere developed on the b a s is of th e se p e r annum r a te s of change. T h ree s e ts of p ro je c tio n s w ere m ade (table A - 6). P ro je c tio n A a ssu m e d no change in the ra tio s a s th ey e x iste d in 1961, and w as c a lc u la te d u sing th e s e 1961 ra tio s . P ro je c tio n C, to tak e the o th e r e x tre m e of the th re e p ro je c tio n s , a ssu m e d th at the p e r annum ra te of change in the p ro p o rtio n s would continue u n ab ated to 1970, and w as c a lc u la te d u sin g th a t ra te of change. P r o j­ e c tio n B, the m iddle p ro je c tio n , a ssu m e d change w ould continue to 1970 but not so ra p id ly a s b etw een 1958 and 1961; the p ro je c tio n w as c a lc u la te d by u sin g a p p ro x ­ im a te ly h alf the p e r annum ra te of change in the p ro p o rtio n s betw een 1958 and 1961, w ith slig h t v a ria tio n s fro m p ro d u ct c a te g o ry to p ro d u c t c a te g o ry a s deem ed re a so n a b le in the lig h t of any sp e c ia l in flu en ces ex ­ p ected to affect em ploym ent in th a t c a te ­

g o ry .

The B p ro je c tio n s a re u se d in th is study; th ey a p p e a r in ta b le s 15 and 18. T hese p ro je c tio n s w e re d ecid ed upon a s the m o st p ro b ab le of the th re e , a fte r a n a ly sis of the m any v a ria b le s ex p ected to affect the in ­ d u s try and its em ploym ent co m p o sitio n d u rin g the re m a in in g y e a rs of the 1960*s. It se e m s u n lik ely th a t the 1960's w ill see the ra p id ch an g es of 1958-61 e ith e r sud­ denly stop and the ra tio s re m a in a s th ey w ere in 1961 (P ro je c tio n A), o r continue w ithout dim in u tio n (P ro je c tio n C). It se e m s even m o re u n lik ely th at the 1958-61 tre n d s w ill r e v e r s e th e m se lv e s durin g th e 1960's, o r continue a t an a c c e le ra te d ra te , so th e se p o s s ib ilitie s w e re not p ro je c te d .

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Table A-l. Value of electronics shipments, by major product category, estimates for 1950-62 in constant 1960 dollars 

and current dollars, and projections for 1970 in constant 1960 dollars

Year

All

electronics

shipments1

Military 

and space 

products2

Industrial 

nnri commercial products

Consumer

products3

Components

Total

Used in

original

equipment

Replacement

parts

1960 dollars (billions)

1950....... (*) $0*67 $0.47 $1.42 (*) (4) (4)

1951....... (*) 1.35 .58 1.38 <*) (4) (4)

1952....... (*> 2.53 .62 1.28 (*) (4) (4)

1953....... (*) 3.15 .71 1.37 <*) (4 ) (4 )

1954....... $5.77 3.09 .74 1.37 $1.75 $1.18 $0.57

1955....... 6.11 3.13 .84 1.47 1.96 1.29 .67

1956....... 7.12 3.74 1.03 1.57 2.08 1.30 .78

1957....... 8.01 4.20 1.33 1.64 2.28 1.44 .84

1958....... 8.18 4.43 1.38 1.55 2.21 1.39 .82

1959....... 9.16 4.72 1.59 1.97 2.77 1.89 .88

1960....... 9.95 5.10 1.85 2.10 3.05 2.15 .90

1961....... 10.75 5.49 2.20 2.06 3.44 2.44 1.00

19625...... (4 ) 6.10 2.45 2.13 (4) (4) (4)

1970....... 19.80 10.70 4.10 3.50 5.49 3.99 1.50

Current dollars (billions)

1950....... $2.60 $0.50 $0.35 $1.50 $1.16 $0.91 $0.25

1951....... 3.25 1.05 .45 1.40 1.26 .91 .35

1952....... 4.25 2.05 .50 1.30 1.73 1.33 .40

1953....... 5.15 2.65 .60 1.40 (4) (4) .50

1954....... 5.40 2.70 .65 1.40 2.01 1.36 .65

1955....... 5.80 2.80 .75 1.50 2.20 1.45 .75

1956....... 6.85 3.45 .95 1.60 2.28 1.43 .85

1957....... 8.00 4.10 1.30 1.70 2.44 1.54 .90

1958....... 8.26 4.42 1.38 1.60 2.33 1.47 .86

1959....... 9.24 4.74 1.60 2.00 2.83 1.93 .90

1960....... 9.95 5.10 1.85 2.10 3.05 2.15 .90

1961....... 10.69 5.49 2.20 2.05 3.27 2.32 .95

19625...... 11.82 6.22 2.50 2.10 (4) (4) 1.00

1 Not included in this total is the value of components used in original equipment, because such components are already counted in the value of the end equipment of which they are a part.

2 Consists of expenditures for (1) military electronics research, development and procurement (exclusive of maintenance work and services), except that for the years before 1961 most R&D expenditures are excluded, and (2) space electronics'research, development, and procurement.

3 Includes phonograph records. Excludes color television sets, except in projection for 1970.

* Not available.

5 Estimated.

Source: Current dollar figures are based pn estimates of the Electronic Industries Association, except that shipments of military and space products include an addition estimated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for space electronics expenditures by the civilian space agency (the National Aeronautics and Space Administration), beginning with 

1958 when that agency was established.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics computed the constant dollar estimates for 1950-62 from the current dollar 

figures, and developed the constant dollar projections for 1970 (see text of this appendix for methodology).

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Table A-2. Selected data used to develop 1970 projection for military and space electronics shipments

(Billions of 1960 dollars)

Year1

Gross

National

Product2

(i)

Defense Department expenditures NASA expenditures D0D-NASA expenditures 

for electronics

Total3

(2)

Total as 

percent 

of GNP

(3)

For

electronics*

M

Total5

(5)

For

electronics6

(6)

Fiscal year 

basis7

(7)

Calendar year 

basis6

(8)

1954.....

__ . . „

$3.09

1955..... $449.7 $42.9 9.5 $2.9 — — $2.90 3.13

1956..... 459.2 41.0 8.9 3.3 — — 3.30 3.74

1957...... 467.8 42.0 9.0 4.0 — — 4.00 4.20

1958..... 459.7 41.4 9.0 4.3 $0.09 $0.02 4.32 4.43

1959..... 490.6 42.3 8.6 4.5 .15 .04 4.54 4.72

1960...... 504.4 41.2 8.2 4.9 .40 .10 5.00 5.10

1961..... 514.6 42.5 8.4 5.1 .73 .19 5.29 5.49

1962..... 546.8 46.1 8.4 5.6 1.27 .32 5.92 6.10

1963..... 569.3 47.1 8.2 6.0 2.20 .55 6.55 6.70

1970..... 755.1 53.0 7.0 9.0 6.00 1.50 10.50 10.70

1 Data in col. 1 and col. 8 are on calendar year basis. Data in all other columns are on fiscal year basis. (Fiscal 

year in the Defense Department and NASA runs from July 1 to June 30. Fiscal year 1955, for example, runs from July 1, 

1954, to June 30, 1955.)

2 GNP for 1960 and earlier years, in 1960 dollars, were obtained from Economic Report of the President, January 1961, 

table C-2, and Economic Report of the President', January 1962, table B-l. GNP for 1961 in 1961 dollars— $521.3 billion— 

was converted to a 1960 dollar estimate using a derived price deflator of 101.3. Both the GNP figure and the price deflator for 1961 are from Economic Indicator s, March 1962, prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of 

Economic Advisers. Estimates of 1962 and 1963 GNP, in 1960. dollars, were derived by increasing the 1960 GNP figure by 

4.12 percent per annum compounded— the 1960-70 per annum rate of increase indicated by the GNP projections to 1970. This 

GNP projection to 1970 is from a BLS staff publication, Guide to Manpower— Challenge of the 1960s. p. 5. The BLS projection is in 1958 dollars, and was converted to 1960 dollars by using price deflators for GNP for the years 1958-60 from 

the July 1961 issue of Survey of Current Business, table 65.

3 D0D expenditures for military functions. Excludes military assistance, atomic energy, civil defense, and defenserelated services. Obtained in current dollars from the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), FAD 

Report 397-Fiscal Year 1963 (1), Jan. 18, 1962; figures for fiscal year 1962 and 1963 are estimates. Current dollar 

figures for fiscal year 1955 to fiscal year 1961 were converted to constant 1960 dollars by using the price index for 

Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense (from Economic Report of the President, January 

1961, tables C-l and C-2; and Economic Report of the President. January 1962, tables B-l and B-2). Current dollar estimates for fiscal year 1962 and 1963 were converted to constant 1960 dollars by assuming no change in the price index 

between 1961 and 1962 and a 1 percent increase between 1962 and 1963. Projection for 1970 was developed by the Bureau of 

Labor Statistics; see text of this appendix for methodology.

* Consists of expenditures for military electronics research, development, and procurement (exclusive of maintenance 

work and services), except that for the years before 1961 most R&D expenditures are excluded. Current dollar estimates 

for fiscal year 1955-63 are from the Electronic Industries Association. They were converted to constant 1960 dollar estimates by using a price deflator constructed for industrial-commercial electronics products; the assumption was that 

price movements are similar for military and industrial-commercial electronics. (See text of this appendix for methodology for construction of industrial-commercial shipments price deflator.) Projection for 1970 was developed by the 

Bureau of Labor Statistics; see text of this appendix for methodology.

5 Expenditures in current dollars, actual for fiscal years 1958-61 and estimated for fiscal years 1962 and 1963, were 

obtained from the Budget of the United States Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June 30. 1963. pp. 110 and 246. Conversion to constant 1960 dollars was effected through use of the price index for Federal Government purchases of goods 

and services for national defense (see footnote 3 above for the source of this index). Projection for 1970 was developed 

by the BLS; see text of this appendix for methodology.

6 Consists of expenditures disbursed to electronics manufacturing establishments for space electronics research, development, and procurement. Figures were developed by the BIS and equal roughly one-fourth of the figures in column 5; 

see text of this appendix for methodology.

7 Represents sum of cols. 4 and 6.

6 Converted from fiscal year basis by the BIS; see text of this appendix for methodology.

Source: Developed by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. See table footnotes for sources and methodology.

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Table A-3. Selected data used to develop 1970 projections for industrial-commercial and consumer electronics shipments

[Dollar figures in billions of I960 dollars]

Series 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960

National income accounts:1 

Gross national product .... $362.3 $392.0 $406.8 $425.5 $416.8 $449.7 $459.2 $467.8 $459.7 $490.6 $504.4

Personal consumption 

expenditures............ 238.7 240.8 247.0 258.9 262.3 282.0 291.3 299.1 302.0 319.3 328.9

For furniture and household equipment........ 15.1 14.2 14.3 15.4 15.1 17.3 18.0 17.6 17.5 19.0 18.8

For radio and TV receivers, records, and 

musical instruments.... 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.6

Gross private domestic 

investment............ .. 66.7 69.2 60.7 61.4 58.9 74.7 74.3 69.8 58.2 72.9 72.4

Producers' durable 

equipment............. 25.9 26.7 26.5 27.4 25.3 27.4 30.3 29.9 23.6 25.9 27.5

Other series:

Expenditures for new plant 

and equipment2............ 28.2 32.1 33.0 34.8 32.6 34.0 39.1 38.8 31.2 32.7 35.7

Federal Reserve Board index 

of industrial production 

(1957=100)3............... 74.5 80.8 83.8 90.8 85.4 96.0 99.3 100.0 92.9 104.9 108.0

Number of primary families— 

husband and wife present 

(thousands)4................ 34,075 34,378 35,138 35,560 35,875 h 36,266 37,043 37,711 37,967 38,420 (5)

Kilowatt-hours of electricity 

produced by or sold to industrial and commercial 

establishments (monthly 

average, in billions)6....... 21.2 23.6 24.9 28.0 29.3 34.7 37.7 38.9 38.3 42.1 45.4

1 National income accounts are from Economic Report of the President, January 1961, table C-2, and Economic Report of 

the President, January 1962, table B-l, except for personal consumption expenditures for (1) furniture and household 

equipment, and (2) radio and TV receivers, records, and musical instruments, which were separately derived. Current 

dollar personal consumption expenditures for furniture and household equipment are available in Economic Report of the 

President. January 1962, table B-9; they were converted to constant 1960 dollars using price deflators available, for 

1950-56, in U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Income and Output (A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business), table 

VII-13, and, for 1957-60, from Survey of Current Business, July 1961, table 70. The price deflators were in 1954- dollars and were converted to 1960 dollars. Current dollar personal consumption expenditures for radio and TV receivers, 

records, and musical instruments were obtained, for 1950-57, from U.S. Income and Output, op. cit. table II-4, and, for 

1957-60, from Survey of Current Business, July 1961, table 15. They were converted to constant 1960 dollars on the 

basis of unpublished data of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

GNP is made up of 4 major components: Personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government purchases of goods and services. Data for only the first 2 of these 4 major 

components are shown in the table, the other 2 components being considered not relevant to the projections for this 

study.

2 Derived by deflating to constant 1960 dollars current dollar figures for new plant and equipment expenditures 

available in Economic Report of-the President, January 1962, table B-34. The deflation was made with the price index 

used to deflate producers' durable equipment (a subcomponent of gross private domestic investment, in the national income accounts). This price index was computed for this study by dividing current dollar figures for producers' durable 

equipment by constant 1960 dollar figures, both sets of figures being available in Economic Report of the President, 

January 1961, tables C-l and C-2.

3 From Economic Report of the President, January 1962, table B-32.

4 From U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Population Characteristics, Series P-20, No. 94, released Aug. 24, 1959, table 4. Data are for March or April of each year.

5 Not available.

6 Calculated from U.S. Department of Commerce, Business Statistics, 1961 biennial edition, A Supplement to the Survey 

of Current Business, p. 126.

Source: Developed by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. See table footnotes for sources and 

methodology.

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Table A-4* Electronics shipments and shipments per employee (in constant 1960 dollars), and employment, 

by product category, estimates for 1958-61 and projections for 1970

All Military Industrial

and

commercial

products

Consumer

products

Components

Item and year electronics

shipments

and space 

products

Total Original

equipment

Beplacement

parts

Value of shipments per 

employee (1960 

dollars):

1958................. $15,694 $18,037 $15,991 $21,320 $10,770 C1 ) (X)

1959................. 16,028 18,423 16,426 21,913 11,237 <*) (x)

1960................. 16,483 18,837 16,908 22,509 11,698 C1 ) (x)

1961................. 16,961 19,399 17,460 23,224 12,286 (x) t1)

1970................. 21,937 23,327 21,984 29,362 17,162 (x ) (X )

Value of shipments 

(billions of 1960 

dollars):

1958................. 2 9.57 4.43 1.38 1.55 2,21 $1.39 $0.82

1959................. 11.05 4.72 1.59 1.97 2.77 1.89 .88

1960................. 12.10 5.10 1.85 2.10 3.05 2.15 .90

1961................. 13.19 5.49 2.20 2.06 3.44 2.44 1.00

1970................. 23.79 10.70 4.10 3.50 5.49 3.99 1.50

Employment (thousands):

1958................. 609.8 245.6 86.3 72.7 205.2 129.5 75.7

1959................. 689.4 256.2 96.8 89.9 246.5 168.1 78.4

1960................. 734.1 270.7 109.4 93.3 260.7 183.8 76.9

1961................. 777.7 283.0 126.0 88.7 280.0 198.6 81.4

1970................. 1,084.5 458.7 186.5 119.2 319.9 232.5 87.4

1 Same as shipments-per-employee estimates for all components.

2 Figures in this column exceed comparable figures in tables 14 and A-l to the extent that they add in all components 

shipments, including those of original equipment components even though these are already included in end product shipments. This double counting was necessary to derive shipments-per-employee estimates for the industry as a whole.

Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.

Source: Developed by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. See text of this appendix for methodology.

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Table A-5. D istrib u tio n of employment between nonproduction and production w orkers, and women w orkers, in se le c te d e le c tro n ic s m anufacturing in d u s trie s , 1958-61

In d u stry , and type and sex of worker1

Number of workers (thousands) Percent of in d u stry employment

1958 1959 1960 19612 1958 1959 1960 19612

SIC 365, 3662, 367: t o t a l ............. 4-77.9 554.9 583.0 594.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers................. 165.2 192.9 213.5 225.2 34.6 34.8 36.6 37.9 Production w orkers....................... 312.7 362.0 369.5 369.6 65.4 65.2 63.4 62.1 Women w orkers................. ................. 210.9 245.5 255.4 256.5 44.1 44.2 43.8 43.1

SIC 365: Radio and TV receiv in g

s e t s . ..................................................... 104.4 114.4 111.5 113.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers................. 27.3 28.8 29.3 30.3 26.1 25.2 26.3 26.8 Production w orkers........................ 77.1 85.6 82.2 82.9 73.9 74.8 73.7 73.2 Women w orkers.................................. 51.4- 57.6 55.7 54.9 49.2 50.3 50.0 48.5

SIC 3662: Radio and TV communic a tio n equipm ent............................ 194.6. 229.2 246.3 254.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers............. .... 92.9 112.4 123.4 133.2 47.7 49.0 50.1 52.4 Production w orkers........................ 101.7 116.8 122.9 121.2 52.3 51.0 49.9 47.6 Women w o r k e r s................................ 59.1 67.4 72.2 75.0 30.4 29.4 29.3 29.5

SIC 367: E lectro n ic components and a c c e sso rie s• • • • • • • • •............. 178.9 211.3 225.2 227.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers................. 45.0 51.7 60.8 61.7 25.2 24.5 27.0 27.2 Production w orkers........................ 133.9 159.6 164.4 165.5 74.8 75.5 73.0 72.8 Women w orkers...................... 100.4 120.5 127.5 126.6 56.1 57.0 56.6 55.7

SIC 3671-3: E lectro n tu b e s........... 69.5 76.4 75.6 72.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers................. 17.9 20.3 21.7 21.6 25.8 26.6 28.7 30.0 Production w orkers........................ 51.6 56.1 53.9 50.4 74.2 73.4 71.3 70.0 Women w orkers.................................. 39.9 42.7 40.5 36.2 57.4 55.9 . 53.6 50.3

SIC 3679: Components o th er than tu b es3............................................... 109.4 134.9 149.6 155.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers................. 27.1 31.4 39.1 40.2 24.8 23.3 26.1 25.9 Production w orkers........................ 82.3 103.5 110.5 115.0 75.2 76.7 73.9 74.1 Women w orkers.................................. 60.5 77.7 87.0 90.4 55.3 57.6 58.2 58.2

1 For d e fin itio n of "production w orker," as used by th e Bureau of Labor S ta tis tic s in c o lle c tin g th e d a ta in th is ta b le , see ta b le 15, footnote 1. Women workers are included in both th e nonproduction and production worker fig u re s •

2 P relim inary. 3 In clu d es, according to Standard In d u s tria l C la s s ific a tio n Manual. 1957 e d itio n , spe­ c ia lty r e s is to r s fo r e le c tro n ic end products; so lid s ta te e le c tro n ic devices and sim ila r d evices; in d u c to rs, e le c tro n ic tran sfo rm ers, and c a p a c ito rs; and o th er e le c tro n ic compo­ n e n ts, not elsewhere c la s s if ie d .

Note: Because of rounding, sums of in d iv id u a l item s may not equal t o t a l s .

S o u rce: U .S . D e p a rtm e n t of L a b o r, B u reau of L a b o r S ta tis tic s , E m ploym ent and E a rn in g s S ta tis tic s fo r the U nited S ta te s. 1909-60 (B u lletin 1312, 1961J, pp. 196-201 (fo r d ata fo r 1958-60), and E m ploym ent and E a rn in g s, F e b ru a ry 1962, ta b les B -2 and B -4 (for d ata fo r 196l).

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Table A-6. Nonproduction and production w orkers, and women w orkers, in e le c tro n ic s m anufacturing, by product category, 3 p ro je c tio n s fo r 1970

P ro jectio n s fo r 1970

Product category, and type and sex of worker1

Number of workers (thousands) Percent of employment in product category

A B c A B c

T otal e le c tro n ic s employment 1,084.5 1,084.5 1,084.5 100*0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers......... 456.1 516.0 591.6 42.1 47.6 54.6 P roduction w orkers............... 628.2 568.3 492.7 57.9 52.4 45.4 Women w orkers.................... 427.9 422.7 418.4 39.5 39.0 38.6

M ilitary -sp ace and indus- trial-co m m ercial p ro d u c ts.. 645.2 645.2 645.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers......... 338.1 386.5 448.4 52.4 59.9 69.5 P roduction w orkers............... 307.1 258.7 196.8 47.6 40.1 30.5 Women w orkers.......................... 190.3 181.9 173.6 29.5 28.2 26.9

Consumer p ro d u cts............ . . . . . 119.2 119.2 119.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers......... 31.9 33.3 34.6 26.8 27.9 29.0 P roduction w orkers........... .. 87.3 85.9 84.6 73.2 72.1 71.0 Women w orkers.......................... 57.8 56.6 55.3 48.5 47.5 46.4

Components.................................... 319.9 319.9 319.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction workers • • • • • 86.1 96.2 108.6 26.9 30.1 33.9 P roduction w orkers............... 233.8 223.7 211.3 73.1 69.9 66.1 Women w orkers.......................... 179.8 184.2 189.5 56.2 57.6 59.2

Tubes............................................... 80.0 80.0 80.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers......... 24.0 30.0 37.8 30.0 37.5 47.2 Production w orkers............... 56.0 50.0 42.2 70.0 62.5 52.8 Women workers • ........................ 40.2 33.0 26.6 50.3 41.3 33.2

Other than tu b es2...................... 239.9 239.9 239.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 Nonproduction w orkers......... 62.1 66.2 70.8 25.9 27.6 29.5 Production w orkers............... 177.8 173.7 169.1 74.1 72.4 70.5 Women w orkers.......................... 139.6 151.2 162.9 58.2 63.0 67.9

1 For d e f in itio n of "production w orker," as used in c o lle c tin g th e BLS d a ta upon which th ese p ro je c tio n s are based, see ta b le 15, footnote 1. Women workers are included in both th e nonproduction and production worker fig u re s . 2 For types o f components included in th is category, see ta b le A-5, footnote 3.

Note: Because of rounding, sums of in d iv id u a l item s may not equal to t a l s .

Source: Developed by U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s . See te x t o f th is appendix fo r methodology.

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APPENDIX B.

SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY

I. Government Publications

A. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

••Defense Manpower Requirements in Electronics Production/* Manpower Report No, 12 (1952)

‘•Electronics Manufacturing Occupations,** Occupational Outlook Handbook. 1961 edition. Bulletin 1300 (1961)pp. 622-632.

Employment and Earnings Statistics for the United States, 1909-60, Bulletin 1312 (1961 ),pp. 196-202.

Employment and Earnings (monthly publication) .

Employment Outlook in Electronics Manufacturing, Bulletin 1072 (1952).

••Expansion in Electronics Employment,** Monthly Labor Review. February 1952, pp. 151-155.

“ Indexes of Wholesale Prices, by Group and Subgroup of Commodities,** Monthly Labor Review, November 1961, table D-3.

Output Per Man-Hour in the Private Economy in 1960, News Release USDL-4698, Aug. 18,1961.

••The Effect of the Defense Program on Employment Outlook in Electronics Manufacturing,** Supplement No. 15 to the Occupational Outlook Handbook, May 1951.

Wholesale Prices and Price Indexes: For 1954-56, Bulletin 1214 (1957), p. 364; for 1957, Bulletin 1235 (1958). p. 165; for 1958. Bulletin 1257 (1959), p. 277; and for 1959, Bulletin 1295 (1961), pp. 226, 228, and 245.

B. U.S. Department of Commerce

Bureau of the Census:

. ••Home-Type Radio Receivers and Television Sets, Automobile Radios, Phonographs, and Record Player Attachments and Office, Computing, and Accounting Machines,** Current Industrial Reports, Annual Summary Reports, Series M 36 and M 35 R.

••Households and Families, by Type: 1950 to 1959,** Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 94, Aug. 24.1999.

••Illustrative Projections of the Number of Households and Families: 1960 to 1980,** Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 90, Dec. 29, 1958, p. 1.

U.S, Census of Manufactures: 1939. Radio, Radio Tubes and Phonographs Industry, Vol. II, Pt. 2, table 2, p. 388.

U.S. Census of Manufactures: 1947. Statistics by Industry, Vol. II, table 1, p. 739.

U.S. Census of Manufactures: 1958, Industry Statistics, Vol. 11,Pt. 2, Major Groups 29-39.

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Business and Defense Services Administration:

Electronic Components: Production and Related Data, 1952*59. October I960,

"Electronics ,ft The U.S. Industrial Outlook for 1962, pp. 177-201.

Microwave Components: Production and Related Data. 1958. March 1960.

Semiconductors: U.S. Production and Trade. February 1961.

Office of Business Economics:

Business Statistics: 1961 edition, supplement to the Survey of Current Business, p. 126.

Survey of Current Business. July 1961, tables 7,15, 65, and 70.

U.S. Income and Output, supplement to the Survey of Current Business, November 1958, tables H-4 and VII-13.

C. U.S. Department of Defense

Order of Magnitude Data on Comparative Expenditures by Functional Title as if Fiscal Year 1963 Budget Structure had Been Adopted Circa 1948 (Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense, Comptroller), Fiscal Analysis Division Report 397-Fiscal Year 1963 (1), Jan. 18,1962.

Prime Contract Awards for Fiscal Year 1962 Compared by State and Region. News Release No. 1569 (Office of Public Affairs), Sept. 29,1962.

The Changing Patterns of Defense Procurement (Office of the Secretary of Defense), June 1962.

D. U.S. Executive Office of the President

Bureau of the Budget:

Special Analysis of Federal Research and Development Program in the 1962 Budget, January 1961.

Standard Industrial Classification Manual, 1957 edition: and supplement published in 1958.

Standard Industrial Classification Manual, 1945 edition, Vol. I, Manufacturing Industries: Pt. I, Titles and Descriptions of Industries, 1945; Pt. 2, Alphabetic Index, 1947.

The 1962 Budget Review, Autumn 1961.

Other Executive Office publications:

Economic Indicators, prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the 87th Cong., 2d sess. (Council of Economic Advisers), March 1962.

Economic Report of the President, transmitted to the Congress January 1961, table C -l, p. 127; 

table C-2, p. 128; and table C-30, p. 162.

Economic Report of the President, transmitted to the Congress January 1962, table B -l, p. 207; 

table B-2, p. 208; and table B-32, p. 245.

E. The Congress of the United States

Coordination of Information on Current Federal Research and Development Projects in the Field of Elec­ tronics, prepared for the Committee on Government Operations and its Subcommittee on Reorganization and International Organization (U.S. Senate, 87th Cong., 1st sess.. Sept. 20, 1961).

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Department of Defense Appropriations for 1962, Hearings before the Subcommittee on Appropriations (U.S. Senate, 87th Cong., 1st sess. on H.R. 7851, Apr. 18-July 26, 1961).

Impact of Automation on Employment, Hearings before the Subcommittee on Unemployment and the Impact of Automation of the Committee on Education and Labor (House of Representatives, 87th Cong., 1st sess., Mar. 8 and 29 and Apr. 18,1961).

Independent Offices Appropriations for 1963, Hearings before the Subcommittee of Independent Offices of the Committee on Appropriations (House of Representatives, 87th Cong., 2d sess., Pt. 3, Apr. 16, 1962), pp. 406-499.

F. National Science Foundation

•‘Funds for Performance of Research and Development in American Industry, I960.0 Reviews of Data on Research and Development. No. 30, NSF 61-51, September 1961.

Nonprofit Organizations—Expenditures and Manpower--1957, NSF 61-37, Washington, D.C., p. 31.

Scientific and Technical Personnel in Industry. 1960. NSF 61-75, Washington, D.C., 1961, table A -l, p. 20.

Scientific Research and Other Programs of Private Foundations, 1960, Preliminary Report No. 35, Washington, D.C., August 1962.

The Long-Range Demand for Scientific and Technical Personnel—A Methodological Study, NSF 61-65, Washington, D.C., 1961.

G. Other Government Publications

A Study of Small Business in the Electronics Industry (Small Business Administration), 1962.

Annual Procurement Report, Fiscal Year 1961 (National Aeronautics and Space Administration).

Annual Reports of the Federal Communications Commission to the Congress of the United States: Second Annual Report (Fiscal Year 1936); Seventh Annual Report (Fiscal Year 1941); 22nd Annual Report (Fiscal Year 1956); and 27th Annual Report (Fiscal Year 1961).

CAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation. 1955 edition, p. 31; 1956 edition, pp. 27-28 (Civil Aeronautics Administration).

FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation, 1961 edition (Federal Aviation Agency), p. 35.

The Budget of the United States Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June 30, 1963, pp. 110 and 246.

11. Books and Reports

Electronic Industries 1962 Yearbook, Electronic Industries Association, Washington, D. C., September 1962.

Electronic Industry 1960 Fact Book, Electronic Industries Association, Washington, D. C., 1960.

Electronics, by James M. Hund, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1959.

Electronics—1961 by M errill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith, Inc., New York, N. Y., 1961.

Manpower Requirements in Electronics^ Manufacturing—Outlook to 1964 in the New York Metropolitan Area, 

(New York State Department of Labor, Division of Employment, Bureau of Research and Statistics), New York, 

December 1960.

Markets of the Sixties, by the Editors of Fortune, Harper and Bros., New York, N.Y., 1960.

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National Defense and Southern California, 1961-1970, a statement of policy by the Southern California CED Associates together with a research report by George A. Steiner* Southern California CED Associates* Los 

Angeles, Calif., December 1961.

The California Economy—1947-1980* by Robert K. Arnold and others, Stanford Research Institute* Menlo Park* Calif., 1960.

The Changing Structure of the U.S. Defense Market* by Murray L. Weidenbaum* published in Defense Mar­ keting in the 1960‘s , American Management Association, Inc., New York, N. Y.t pp. 7-31.

The Electronics Industry in New England to 1970* by Albert H. Rubenstein and Victor L. Andrews* 1970 projection No. 4* Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, December 1959.

‘•The Small Electronics Firm ,” Research for Industry* Vol. 13, No. 6, Stanford Research Institute* Menlo Park, Calif.,November-December 1961, pp. 10-12.

III. Periodical Articles

Automation* The Penton Publishing Co., Cleveland, Ohio.

‘•Automatic Diode Tester Improves Production Yields,” July 1961, pp. 67-69.

“ Survey Report and Forecast on Automation Trends,” July 1961* pp. 35-50.

Business Automation* O.A. Business Publications* Elmhurst, 111.

•‘Projections *62,” January 1962, pp. 20ff.

“ Computer Census as of December 1961,” January 1962, p. 39.

Business Week* McGraw-Hill Publishing Co*, New York*

“Cheaper TV Set,” Apr. 7* 1962, pp* 134ff.

“ Computers Start to Run the Plants,” Nov. 5, 1960* pp. 50ff.

“Gaining Despite the Handicaps,” June 16. 1962* pp. 144-150.

“ Midwest is the Big Loser,” June 30, 1962, pp. 38,40.

“ Next Step Beyond Transistor,” Oct. 28, 1961* pp* 45ff.

“ Space,” Aug. 19, 1961* pp. 75-96.

“ The New Shape of Electronics,” Apr. 14* 1962, pp. 160-182.

Data, Queensmith Associates* Washington, D.C.

“ A Look at the NASA Budget Requests,” March 1962, pp. 19-23.

“ Calculated Predictions and an Analysis of the Next Ten Years in Defense Spending,“ September 1961, 

pp. 42-46.

“ Defense R&D: A Major Growth Market,” September 1962, pp. 28-29*

“ Military Markets,” September 1961, pp. 38-41*

“Summarizing Defense Market Figures for Interpretation and Forecast,” June 1962, pp. 32-34.

“ The Aerospace Market,” October 1961, pp. 20-26.

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Electronic Age, Radio Corporation of America, New York*

•'Electronics Earns its Wings/* Summer 1961, pp.7-10.

“ Electronics in Space,** Autumn 1961, pp. 11-14.

••The Boom in Microwave,** Spring 1961, pp. 26-29,

Electronic News, Fairchild Publications, Inc., New York.

•‘Increased Effort Seen in Microminiaturization,** August 20, 1962, p. 99.

“ New High Speed Tube Tester,’* Dec. 25, 1961, p. 1.

“ Over 30 Stations on Air in Stereo,** Nov. 27, 1961, p. 28.

Electronics, McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., New York.

“ Electronic Applications of Ultrasonic Welding,** June 29, 1962, pp. 112ff. 

“ Microminiaturization,** Nov. 25, 1960, pp. 78-108.

“ Our Growing Markets,** Jan. 5, 1962, pp. 42-72.

“ Our Industry Today and Tomorrow,** Jan. 6,1961, pp. 73-104.

“ Production Machinery for the Electronics Industry,** Oct. 24, 1958, pp. 31, 73-84. 

“ Production Methods for Welded Circuits,** Feb. 1962, pp. 66,68.

Electronics World. Ziff-Davis Publishing Co., New York.

“Automated Testing Men & Machines,** June 1962, pp. 52ff.

“ Electronics 20 Years Ago,** April 1960, pp. 40ff.

“ Technicians in the Computer Industry,** June 1962, pp. 50-51, 84.

“ The Citizen’s Band and Its Uses,** September 1960, pp. 54ff.

“ The Technician: His Role in Industry,** March 1962, pp. 25-27.

Fortune, Time, New York.

“ Electronics Goes Microminiature,** August 1962, pp. 99ff.

“ Hitching the Economy to the Infinite,** June 1962, pp. 123ff.

“ Laying the Great Cable in Space,** July 1961, pp. 156ff.

“ The Astonishing Computers,** June 1957, pp. 136ff.

“ The Battle of the Components,** May 1957, pp. 135ff.

“ The Coming Shakeout in Electronics,** August 1960, pp. 126ff.

“ The Next Generation of Computers,** March 1959, pp. 132ff.

“ The War of the Computers,** October 1959, pp. 128ff.

“ What We Know About Solids is Getting Solid,** November 1961, pp. 150ff.

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Missiles and Rockets, American Aviation Publications* Inc.* Washington, D.C,

‘•Lear Mass-Produces Microcircuits,” Jan. 29, 1962, pp. 34-35.

“ The $50-Billion Space Push,** Nov. 27, 1961, pp. 46-49.

“ $ 22-Billion Market Through 1970,“ Sept. 17, 1962, pp. 22-24.

“ Zeus Resistors Made at Rate of One Each 3 Sec.,” July 10,1961, pp. 22-24. 

The New York Times

“ Automatic Hands: Companies Step Up Use of Machines to Handle Tricky Assembly Jobs,” Oct. 25, 1960, p. 1.

“ Automation Shown in Microcircuitry,’* Jan. 17, 1962, p. 48.

“ Billions Awarded as U.S. Plans Shot at Moon,” Jan. 8, 1962, p. 118.

“ Electronics Climbs to 5th Place on Nation’s Industrial Ladder,” Jan. 9,1961, pp. 41, 62.

Other Periodicals

“ A Growing Field. • • Solid Networks,” Electronic Industries. Chilton Company, Philadelphia, Pa., May

1961, pp. 120-122.

“ Defense Spending: A Fourth Revision,” The Conference Board Business Record, National Industrial Conference Board, Incorporated, New York, November 1961, pp. 5-6.

“ Electronics and Allied Industries,” Industrial Marketing (Directory Issue), Advertising Publications, Incorporated, Chicago, 111., June 23, 1961, pp. 141-161.

“ Electronic Trends,” Ground Support Equipment, Sheffield Publishing Company, Incorporated, Washington, D.C., August/September 1961, pp. 21-25.

“ Engineers of Progress,” Bell Telephone Magazine, American Telephone and Telegraph Co., Spring 1959, pp. 37-44.

“ Environmental Control in Production and Maintenance of Electronic Components,” Military Systems Design, Instruments Publishing Co., Pittsburgh, Pa., September-October 1961, pp. 34-39.

“ How To Forecast Defense Expenditures,” California Management Review, University of California, Los Angeles, Calif., Summer 1960, pp. 84-99.

“ Marvels in Miniature,” Dun’s Review and Modern Industry, Dun and Bradstreet Publications Corp., New York, April 1962, pp. 39-41.

“Microelectronics—A Staff Survey,” Electronic Equipment Engineering, Sulton Publishing Co., Inc., 

White Plains, N.Y., June 1961, pp. 50-52.

“ Numerical Contouring Gets its Second Wind,” Machinery, The Industrial Press, New York, Decem­ ber 1961, pp. 113-120.

“ Numerical Control by Punched Tape,” Instruments and Control Systems, The Instruments Publishing Co., Inc., Pittsburgh, Pa., September 1961, pp. 1643-1646.

“ Small Worlds to Conquer,” Skyline, North American Aviation, Inc., Los Angeles, Calif., Vol. 20, No. 3,

1962, pp. 21-27.

“ The Defense Industry as a Business,” May 1961, Signal, Armed Forces Communications and Elec­ tronics Association, Washington, D.C., pp. 24ff.

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“ The Electronics Industry and Texas,** Texas Business Review, University of Texas, Austin, Tex., August-September 1960, Vol. XXXIV, No. 8-9, pp. 1-6.

“ The Electronics Market," Electronics Buyers* Guide. McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., New York, July 20, 1961, pp. R1-R12.

“ The ‘Shortage* of Engineers,** Review of Economics and Statistics. Harvard University Press, Cam­ bridge, Mass., August 1961, pp. 251-256.

“ Why Research Spending Soars,** Challenge. Institute of Economic Affairs, New York University, New York, January 1961, pp. 42-45.

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