**Worksheet**

T&E Benefits

IM&E Losses

HH data for Sea Turtle Calcs

Richardson and Loomis Calcs

Whitehead Variables Whitehead Calcs

Sea Turtle Summary

Sea Turtle Discounting Calcs Relative AIF for FL **T&E Sea Turtle Calculations 2014.xls** Author: Abt Associates Inc. Created: 02/07/2013

Purpose: This file presents summary tables for recreational use benefits for T&E species under the final rule and options considered and calculations for the illustration of potential benefits associated with reductions in sea turtle losses. Updated: 05/11/14**Description**

Summary

table of estimated recreational use benefits for reductions in IM&E losses of paddlefish and pallid sturgeon under the final rule and options considered.
Summary

table of estimated baseline annual IM&E losses for paddlefish, pallid sturgeon, and topeka shiner and reductions in IM&E losses of these species under the final rule and options considered.

Presents household data used to estimate total values for the illustration of potential benefits for reductions in sea turtle losses. Calculations supporting the illustration of potential benefits for T&E species based on Richardson and Loomis (2009). Summary

of variables included in the Whitehead (1993) function. Variable specifications and calculations supporting the illustration of potential values for reductions in sea turtle losses based on Whitehead (1993). Presents table summarizing regional values for the illustration of potential benefits for reductions in sea turtle losses. Presents discounting calculations for the sea turtle illustration. Percentage of actual intake flow (AIF) for Florida facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic benefits regions. Used to adjust household counts in the illustration of potential benefits for reductions in sea turtle losses. **T&E Sea Turtle Calculations 2014.xls**

Purpose: This file presents summary tables for recreational use benefits for T&E species under the final rule and options considered and calculations for the illustration of potential benefits associated with reductions in**Proposal Option 4**  **Final**

**Rule Proposal** 

**Option 2 Baseline**  Paddlefish $581.0 $604.1 $1,147.4 $1,380.5 Pallid Sturgeon $4.8 $5.0 $5.7 $6.6 **Total Undiscounted $585.8**  **$609.1 $1,153.1**  **$1,387.0**

**Annualized Value $399.1**  **$415.0 $663.9**  **$1,210.7**

**Annualized Value $307.2**  **$319.5 $460.1**  **$1,116.7 Annualized Benefits (2011$, 1,000s)** 

**T&E Species**

**3% Discount Rate**

**7% Discount Rate**

a The IM&E data used to develop regional estimates are from sampling at the Wabash and Cayuga facilites in 1976, the only year of sampling data for these facilities. Source: U.S. EPA analysis for this report**T&E Species Proposal**  **Option 4 Final** 

**Rule Proposal** 

**Option 2 Baseline**  Paddlefish 7,930 8,245 15,660 18,841 Pallid Sturgeon 65 68 78 90 Topeka Shiner 2,911 3,010 3,472 3,985 **Total 10,906**  **11,323 19,210**  **22,916**

aThe IM&E data used to develop regional estimates are from sampling at the Wabash and Cayuga facilites in 1976, the only year of sampling data for these facilities. Source: U.S. EPA analysis for this reportRegion State State # of Households **aggregated for loggerhead analysis**

calif CA AL 1,883,791 Region State calif total AR 1,147,084 midatlantic DE greatlakes IL AZ 2,380,990 midatlantic MD greatlakes IN CA 12,577,498 midatlantic NJ greatlakes MI CO 1,972,868 midatlantic NY greatlakes MN CT 1,371,087 midatlantic PA greatlakes NY DC 266,707 midatlantic VA greatlakes OH DE 342,297 midatlantic **total** greatlakes PA FL 7,420,802 gulfmexico FL greatlakes WI GA 3,585,584 gulfmexico LA greatlakes total IA 1,221,576 gulfmexico MS inland AL ID #N/A gulfmexico TX inland AR IL 4,836,972 gulfmexico **total** inland AZ IN 2,502,154 southatlantic FL inland CA KS 1,112,096 southatlantic GA inland CO KY 1,719,965 southatlantic NC inland CT LA 1,728,360 southatlantic SC inland DC MA 2,547,075 southatlantic **total** inland DE MD 2,156,411 northatlantic CT inland FL ME 557,219 northatlantic MA inland GA MI 3,872,508 northatlantic ME inland IA MN 2,087,227 northatlantic NH inland IL MO 2,375,611 northatlantic RI inland IN MS 1,115,768 northatlantic **total** inland KS MT 409,607 **total all regions** inland KY NC 3,745,155 inland LA ND 281,192 inland MA NE 721,130 inland MD NH 518,973 inland ME NJ 3,214,360 inland MI NM 791,395 inland MN NV 1,006,250 inland MO NY 7,317,755 inland MS OH 4,603,435 inland MT OK 1,460,450 inland NC OR 1,518,938 inland ND PA 5,018,904 inland NE RI 413,600 inland NH SC 1,801,181 inland NJ SD 322,282 inland NM TN 2,493,552 inland NV TX 8,922,933 inland NY UT 877,692 inland OH VA 3,056,058 inland OK VT 256,442 inland OR WA 2,620,076 inland PA WI 2,279,768 inland SC WV 763,831 inland SD WY 226,879 inland TN inland TXinland UT

inland VA inland VT inland WA inland WI inland WV inland WY inland total**aggregated for loggerhead analysis**

# of Households

342,297 2,156,411 3,214,360 7,317,755 5,018,904 3,056,058 **21,105,785** 7,420,802 1,728,360 1,115,768 8,922,933 **19,187,863** 7,420,802 3,585,584 3,745,155 1,801,181 **16,552,722** 1,371,087 2,547,075 557,219 518,973 413,600 **5,407,954 62,254,324** *prior to FL adjustmentState AbbrvState NameHousehold Count % changetotal householdshousehold value

IA Iowa 1,221,576 0.25 58,927,933 $1.1 IN Indiana 2,502,154 0.5 58,927,933 $1.9 KS Kansas 1,112,096 MN Minnesota 2,087,227 MO Missouri 2,375,611 NE Nebraska 721,130 SD South Dakota 322,282 AL Alabama 1,883,791 AR Arkansas 1,147,084 IL Illinois 4,836,972 KY Kentucky 1,719,965 LA Louisiana 1,728,360 MI Missouri 2,375,611 MS Mississippi 1,115,768 MT Montana 409,607 NY New York 7,317,755 ND North Dakota 281,192 OH Ohio 4,603,435 OK Oklahoma 1,460,450 PA Pennsylvania 5,018,904 TN Tennessee 2,493,552 TX Texas 8,922,933 WV West Virginia 763,831 WI Wisconsin 2,279,768 WY Wyoming 226,879 Total 58,927,933benefits (in millions) $63.1 $114.3**Variable Nam e**  **Description Value Used in EPA's**  **Applications** OP Option Price - The amount a household would be willing to pay

under conditions of supply and demand uncertainty Estimated by the model
p2 Demand Probability - for wildlife users, demand uncertainty occurs

when it is indeterminate whether recreational use of the wildlife

resource will be pursued because of uncertain travel costs, income, and tastes. For nonusers, demand uncertainty depends on uncertain
tastes. 0.51
q2a Supply Probability without the Management Program - probability

that the resource will continue to exist in 25 years without implementation of the management program. 0.43

r2 Supply Probability with the Management Program - probability that

the resource will continue to exist in 25 years with implementation of the management program. 0.44 (r2-q2)b Marginal increase in supply probability resulting from the

management program 0.01

aThe model results are linear for marginal improvements in supply probability.

bEPA notes that a marginal change in supply probability of 0.01 is substantially less than changes used by Whitehead (1993) for model estimation. Whitehead (1993) estimated an annual household willingness to payvalue of $10.98 (1991$) for a mean increase in supply probability of 0.47 in 25 years.**Equations from Whitehead (1993) (pp. 126-128)** Variable Definition Study Values OP option price (2011$) 18.1338489

α parameter on p2(r2- q2) 1.272
p2(r2- q2) supply probability

change weighted by

the demand probability 0.25

p2 demand probability 0.51

q2 supply probability

without the management program 0.43

marginal change in supply probability 0.47

r2 supply probability

with the management program 0.9 β parameter on the requested payment 0.029Transfer Values Notes

0.369442575 •annual household payment, no fixed

duration •1991$ - CPI adjustment of 224.939/136.2 •replicated values off slightly due to rounding 1.272 0.0051 •values off slightly from Whitehead (1993) results due to rounding 0.51 •For wildlife users, demand uncertainty

occurs when it is indeterminate whether recreational use of the wildlife resource will pursused because of uncertain travel costs, income, and tastes. •For nonusers, demand uncertainty depends on uncertain tastes.

**0.43** •Supply uncertainty

occurs when it is indeterminate whether the wildlife resource will continue to exist so that it can be enjoyed by

recreational users and

nonusers **0.0100000000 0.4400000000**  0.029**3% Discount Rate 7 % Discount Rate** 

North AtlanticCT, MA, ME,

NH, RI 5.41 $1.90 $1.86

Mid-Atlantic DE, MD, NJ, NY,

PA, VA 21.11 $7.41 $7.25

South AtlanticFL, GA, NC, SC 12.06 $4.24 $4.14 Gulf of MexicoaFL, LA, MS, TX 16.26 $5.71 $5.59
**Total**

**- 54.83**  **$19.26 $18.84**  **Annualized Benefits (2011$, m** **illions)**

aFlorida households are included in both the South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions. To prevent double-counting, Florida households were apportioned between these regions based on relative AI F. Note: Because of uncertainty in estimates of increased survival probability, and because benefits were not calculated for options, these values are not included in national totals. Source: U.S. EPA analysis for this report **Num ber of**  **Households (m** **illions) Region**  **States Included**North AtlanticMid-AtlanticSouth AtlanticGulf of Mexico 2012 0% $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000 2013 0.0% $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000 2014 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2015 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2016 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2017 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2018 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2019 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2020 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2021 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2022 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2023 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2024 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2025 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2026 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2027 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2028 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2029 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2030 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2031 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2032 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2033 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2034 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2035 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2036 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2037 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2038 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2039 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2040 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2041 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2042 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2043 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2044 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2045 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2046 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2047 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2048 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2049 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2050 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2051 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2052 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2053 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2054 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2055 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2056 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2057 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2058 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2059 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159 2060 83.0% $1.6608 $6.4816 $3.7038 $4.9932 2061 67.0% $1.3406 $5.2321 $2.9898 $4.0307 2062 50.0% $1.0005 $3.9046 $2.2312 $3.0080 2063 33.0% $0.6603 $2.5770 $1.4726 $1.9853 2064 17.0% $0.3402 $1.3276 $0.7586 $1.0227 Adjusted Annual Benefits

Year Baseline

Schedule2065 0.0% $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.00003% 7% Net Present Value (millions) -1 1.03 1.07 North Atlantic $50.8 0 1.00 1.00 Mid-Atlantic $198.2 1 0.97 0.93 South Atlantic $113.2 2 0.94 0.87 Gulf of Mexico $152.7 3 0.92 0.82 Total $514.8 4 0.89 0.76 5 0.86 0.71 6 0.84 0.67 7 0.81 0.62 8 0.79 0.58 9 0.77 0.54 10 0.74 0.51 11 0.72 0.48 12 0.70 0.44 13 0.68 0.41 14 0.66 0.39 15 0.64 0.36 16 0.62 0.34 17 0.61 0.32 18 0.59 0.30 19 0.57 0.28 20 0.55 0.26 21 0.54 0.24 22 0.52 0.23 23 0.51 0.21 24 0.49 0.20 25 0.48 0.18 26 0.46 0.17 27 0.45 0.16 28 0.44 0.15 29 0.42 0.14 30 0.41 0.13 31 0.40 0.12 32 0.39 0.11 33 0.38 0.11 34 0.37 0.10 35 0.36 0.09 36 0.35 0.09 37 0.33 0.08 38 0.33 0.08 39 0.32 0.07 40 0.31 0.07 41 0.30 0.06 42 0.29 0.06 43 0.28 0.05 44 0.27 0.05 45 0.26 0.05 46 0.26 0.04 47 0.25 0.04 48 0.24 0.04 49 0.23 0.04 50 0.23 0.03 51 0.22 0.03

Discount Factor Using 3% Discount Rate

Region Period52 0.22 0.03Annualized (millions) Net Present Value

(millions) Annualized

(millions) $1.9 $27.5 $1.9 $7.4 $107.3 $7.3 $4.2 $61.3 $4.1 $5.7 $82.7 $5.6 $19.3 $278.9 $18.8

Using 7% Discount Rate Using 3% Discount RateFL Actual Intake Flow (AIF)%

gulfofmexico 5,976,100,25361% southatlantic 3,896,006,55939% total 9,872,106,813