Worksheet

T&E Benefits

IM&E Losses

HH data for Sea Turtle Calcs

Richardson and Loomis Calcs

Whitehead Variables

Whitehead Calcs

Sea Turtle Summary

Sea Turtle Discounting Calcs

Relative AIF for FL

T&E Sea Turtle Calculations 2014.xls

Author: Abt Associates Inc.

Created: 02/07/2013

Purpose: This file presents summary tables for recreational use benefits for T&E species under the final rule 

and options considered and calculations for the illustration of potential benefits associated with reductions in 

sea turtle losses.

Updated: 05/11/14
Description

Summary table of estimated recreational use benefits for reductions in 

IM&E losses of paddlefish and pallid sturgeon under the final rule and 

options considered.

Summary table of estimated baseline annual IM&E losses for paddlefish, 

pallid sturgeon, and topeka shiner and reductions in IM&E losses of these 

species under the final rule and options considered.

Presents household data used to estimate total values for the illustration 

of potential benefits for reductions in sea turtle losses.

Calculations supporting the illustration of potential benefits for T&E 

species based on Richardson and Loomis (2009).

Summary of variables included in the Whitehead (1993) function.

Variable specifications and calculations supporting the illustration of 

potential values for reductions in sea turtle losses based on Whitehead 

(1993).

Presents table summarizing regional values for the illustration of potential 

benefits for reductions in sea turtle losses.

Presents discounting calculations for the sea turtle illustration.

Percentage of actual intake flow (AIF) for Florida facilities in the Gulf of 

Mexico and South Atlantic benefits regions. Used to adjust household 

counts in the illustration of potential benefits for reductions in sea turtle 

losses.

ulations 2014.xls

sents summary tables for recreational use benefits for T&E species under the final rule 

d and calculations for the illustration of potential benefits associated with reductions in 
Proposal 

Option 4

Final

Rule

Proposal 

Option 2 Baseline

Paddlefish $581.0 $604.1 $1,147.4 $1,380.5

Pallid Sturgeon $4.8 $5.0 $5.7 $6.6

Total Undiscounted $585.8 $609.1 $1,153.1 $1,387.0

Annualized Value $399.1 $415.0 $663.9 $1,210.7

Annualized Value $307.2 $319.5 $460.1 $1,116.7

Annualized Benefits (2011$, 1,000s)

T&E Species

3% Discount Rate

7% Discount Rate

a

 The IM&E data used to develop regional estimates are from sampling at the Wabash and Cayuga facilites in 

1976, the only year of sampling data for these facilities.

Source: U.S. EPA analysis for this report
T&E Species

Proposal 

Option 4

Final

Rule

Proposal 

Option 2 Baseline

Paddlefish 7,930 8,245 15,660 18,841

Pallid Sturgeon 65 68 78 90

Topeka Shiner 2,911 3,010 3,472 3,985

Total 10,906 11,323 19,210 22,916

a

 The IM&E data used to develop regional estimates are from sampling at the Wabash and Cayuga 

facilites in 1976, the only year of sampling data for these facilities.

Source: U.S. EPA analysis for this report
Region State State # of Households aggregated for loggerhead analysis

calif CA AL 1,883,791 Region State

calif total AR 1,147,084 midatlantic DE

greatlakes IL AZ 2,380,990 midatlantic MD

greatlakes IN CA 12,577,498 midatlantic NJ

greatlakes MI CO 1,972,868 midatlantic NY

greatlakes MN CT 1,371,087 midatlantic PA

greatlakes NY DC 266,707 midatlantic VA

greatlakes OH DE 342,297 midatlantic total

greatlakes PA FL 7,420,802 gulfmexico FL

greatlakes WI GA 3,585,584 gulfmexico LA

greatlakes total IA 1,221,576 gulfmexico MS

inland AL ID #N/A gulfmexico TX

inland AR IL 4,836,972 gulfmexico total

inland AZ IN 2,502,154 southatlantic FL

inland CA KS 1,112,096 southatlantic GA

inland CO KY 1,719,965 southatlantic NC

inland CT LA 1,728,360 southatlantic SC

inland DC MA 2,547,075 southatlantic total

inland DE MD 2,156,411 northatlantic CT

inland FL ME 557,219 northatlantic MA

inland GA MI 3,872,508 northatlantic ME

inland IA MN 2,087,227 northatlantic NH

inland IL MO 2,375,611 northatlantic RI

inland IN MS 1,115,768 northatlantic total

inland KS MT 409,607 total all regions

inland KY NC 3,745,155

inland LA ND 281,192

inland MA NE 721,130

inland MD NH 518,973

inland ME NJ 3,214,360

inland MI NM 791,395

inland MN NV 1,006,250

inland MO NY 7,317,755

inland MS OH 4,603,435

inland MT OK 1,460,450

inland NC OR 1,518,938

inland ND PA 5,018,904

inland NE RI 413,600

inland NH SC 1,801,181

inland NJ SD 322,282

inland NM TN 2,493,552

inland NV TX 8,922,933

inland NY UT 877,692

inland OH VA 3,056,058

inland OK VT 256,442

inland OR WA 2,620,076

inland PA WI 2,279,768

inland SC WV 763,831

inland SD WY 226,879

inland TN

inland TX
inland UT

inland VA

inland VT

inland WA

inland WI

inland WV

inland WY

inland total
r loggerhead analysis

# of Households

342,297

2,156,411

3,214,360

7,317,755

5,018,904

3,056,058

21,105,785

7,420,802

1,728,360

1,115,768

8,922,933

19,187,863

7,420,802

3,585,584

3,745,155

1,801,181

16,552,722

1,371,087

2,547,075

557,219

518,973

413,600

5,407,954

62,254,324 *prior to FL adjustment
State Abbrv State Name Household Count % change total households household value

IA Iowa 1,221,576 0.25 58,927,933 $1.1

IN Indiana 2,502,154 0.5 58,927,933 $1.9

KS Kansas 1,112,096

MN Minnesota 2,087,227

MO Missouri 2,375,611

NE Nebraska 721,130

SD South Dakota 322,282

AL Alabama 1,883,791

AR Arkansas 1,147,084

IL Illinois 4,836,972

KY Kentucky 1,719,965

LA Louisiana 1,728,360

MI Missouri 2,375,611

MS Mississippi 1,115,768

MT Montana 409,607

NY New York 7,317,755

ND North Dakota 281,192

OH Ohio 4,603,435

OK Oklahoma 1,460,450

PA Pennsylvania 5,018,904

TN Tennessee 2,493,552

TX Texas 8,922,933

WV West Virginia 763,831

WI Wisconsin 2,279,768

WY Wyoming 226,879

Total 58,927,933
benefits (in millions)

$63.1

$114.3
Variable Name Description

Value Used in EPA's 

Applications

OP Option Price - The amount a household would be willing to pay 

under conditions of supply and demand uncertainty Estimated by the model

p2

Demand Probability - for wildlife users, demand uncertainty occurs 

when it is indeterminate whether recreational use of the wildlife 

resource will be pursued because of uncertain travel costs, income, 

and tastes. For nonusers, demand uncertainty depends on uncertain 

tastes. 0.51

q2

a Supply Probability without the Management Program - probability 

that the resource will continue to exist in 25 years without 

implementation of the management program. 0.43

r2

Supply Probability with the Management Program - probability that 

the resource will continue to exist in 25 years with implementation of 

the management program. 0.44

(r2-q2)

b Marginal increase in supply probability resulting from the 

management program 0.01

a

 The model results are linear for marginal improvements in supply probability.

b

 EPA notes that a marginal change in supply probability of 0.01 is substantially less than changes used by Whitehead (1993) for model 

estimation. Whitehead (1993) estimated an annual household willingness to payvalue of $10.98 (1991$) for a mean increase in supply 

probability of 0.47 in 25 years. 
Equations from Whitehead (1993) (pp. 126-128)

Variable Definition Study Values

OP option price (2011$) 18.1338489

α parameter on p2(r2 - q2) 1.272

p2(r2 - q2) supply probability change weighted by the demand 

probability

0.25

p2 demand probability 0.51

q2 supply probability without the management program 0.43

marginal change in supply probability 0.47

r2 supply probability with the management program 0.9

β parameter on the requested payment 0.029
Transfer Values Notes

0.369442575 •annual household payment, no fixed 

duration

•1991$ - CPI adjustment of 

224.939/136.2

•replicated values off slightly due to 

rounding

1.272

0.0051 •values off slightly from Whitehead 

(1993) results due to rounding

0.51 •For wildlife users, demand uncertainty

occurs when it is indeterminate whether 

recreational use of the wildlife resource 

will pursused because of uncertain travel 

costs, income, and tastes. 

•For nonusers, demand uncertainty

depends on uncertain tastes.

0.43 •Supply uncertainty occurs when it is 

indeterminate whether the wildlife 

resource will continue to exist so that it 

can be enjoyed by recreational users and 

nonusers

0.0100000000

0.4400000000

0.029
3% Discount Rate 7 % Discount Rate

North Atlantic CT, MA, ME, 

NH, RI

5.41 $1.90 $1.86

Mid-Atlantic DE, MD, NJ, NY, 

PA, VA

21.11 $7.41 $7.25

South Atlantic FL, GA, NC, SC 12.06 $4.24 $4.14

Gulf of Mexicoa FL, LA, MS, TX 16.26 $5.71 $5.59

Total - 54.83 $19.26 $18.84

Annualized Benefits

(2011$, millions)

a

Florida households are included in both the South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions. To prevent double-counting, Florida 

households were apportioned between these regions based on relative AIF.

Note: Because of uncertainty in estimates of increased survival probability, and because benefits were not calculated for options, 

these values are not included in national totals.

Source: U.S. EPA analysis for this report

Number of 

Households 

Region States Included (millions)
North Atlantic Mid-Atlantic South Atlantic Gulf of Mexico

2012 0% $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000

2013 0.0% $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000

2014 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2015 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2016 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2017 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2018 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2019 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2020 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2021 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2022 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2023 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2024 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2025 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2026 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2027 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2028 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2029 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2030 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2031 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2032 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2033 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2034 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2035 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2036 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2037 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2038 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2039 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2040 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2041 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2042 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2043 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2044 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2045 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2046 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2047 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2048 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2049 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2050 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2051 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2052 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2053 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2054 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2055 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2056 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2057 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2058 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2059 100.0% $2.0009 $7.8091 $4.4624 $6.0159

2060 83.0% $1.6608 $6.4816 $3.7038 $4.9932

2061 67.0% $1.3406 $5.2321 $2.9898 $4.0307

2062 50.0% $1.0005 $3.9046 $2.2312 $3.0080

2063 33.0% $0.6603 $2.5770 $1.4726 $1.9853

2064 17.0% $0.3402 $1.3276 $0.7586 $1.0227

Adjusted Annual Benefits

Year

Baseline 

Schedule
2065 0.0% $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000
3% 7%

Net Present Value 

(millions)

-1 1.03 1.07 North Atlantic $50.8

0 1.00 1.00 Mid-Atlantic $198.2

1 0.97 0.93 South Atlantic $113.2

2 0.94 0.87 Gulf of Mexico $152.7

3 0.92 0.82 Total $514.8

4 0.89 0.76

5 0.86 0.71

6 0.84 0.67

7 0.81 0.62

8 0.79 0.58

9 0.77 0.54

10 0.74 0.51

11 0.72 0.48

12 0.70 0.44

13 0.68 0.41

14 0.66 0.39

15 0.64 0.36

16 0.62 0.34

17 0.61 0.32

18 0.59 0.30

19 0.57 0.28

20 0.55 0.26

21 0.54 0.24

22 0.52 0.23

23 0.51 0.21

24 0.49 0.20

25 0.48 0.18

26 0.46 0.17

27 0.45 0.16

28 0.44 0.15

29 0.42 0.14

30 0.41 0.13

31 0.40 0.12

32 0.39 0.11

33 0.38 0.11

34 0.37 0.10

35 0.36 0.09

36 0.35 0.09

37 0.33 0.08

38 0.33 0.08

39 0.32 0.07

40 0.31 0.07

41 0.30 0.06

42 0.29 0.06

43 0.28 0.05

44 0.27 0.05

45 0.26 0.05

46 0.26 0.04

47 0.25 0.04

48 0.24 0.04

49 0.23 0.04

50 0.23 0.03

51 0.22 0.03

Discount Factor Using 3% Discount Rate

Period Region
52 0.22 0.03
Annualized 

(millions)

Net Present Value 

(millions)

Annualized 

(millions)

$1.9 $27.5 $1.9

$7.4 $107.3 $7.3

$4.2 $61.3 $4.1

$5.7 $82.7 $5.6

$19.3 $278.9 $18.8

Using 3% Discount Rate Using 7% Discount Rate
FL Actual Intake Flow (AIF) %

gulfofmexico 5,976,100,253 61%

southatlantic 3,896,006,559 39%

total 9,872,106,813