04/20/2015

AGA/APGA’s questions regarding the use of AHRI Shipment Data

in the LCC spreadsheet

DOE: AGA/APGA have some questions regarding the use of AHRI Shipment Data in the LCC 

spreadsheet, to which we would appreciate prompt responses. 

Overall QUESTION: Please explain the detailed methodology used in the TSD and LCC 

spreadsheet to determine the fractions of each efficiency level in the baseline (no rule) scenario. 

This includes the approach to: 

Overall RESPONSE: The approach for estimating the base case efficiency distributions 

is explained in Chapter 8 (section 8.2.2.8), Appendix 8-I, and Chapter 10 (section 10.4) 

of the TSD (link: http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=EERE-2014-BT-STD0031-0027). All calculations and raw data are available for review by stakeholders in the 

“Efficiency”, “Efficiency Data”, and “Shipment Data” worksheets of the Analysis Inputs 

spreadsheet (link: http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=EERE-2014-BT-STD0031-0020). Also see page 243 to 262 of the Residential Furnace Transcript (Part 1) and 

pages 83 to 86 of Residential Furnace Transcript (Part 2) for further discussion and 

answers to stakeholder questions.

SUB-QUESTION A: Incorporating the 1994 through 2009 state-level AHRI condensing and 

non-condensing furnace shipment data available only to LBNL as confidential information,

RESPONSE A: These AHRI data are not confidential and are fully available in 

“Shipments Data” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs Spreadsheet. For the 2007 Furnace 

and Boiler Final Rule analysis, AHRI provided state-level condensing and noncondensing furnace shipment data from 1992 to 2003 (see cells B22 to AD76 in the 

“Shipments Data” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet). For the 2011 Furnace 

Direct Final Rule analysis, AHRI provided 2004 to 2009 condensing and non-condensing 

furnace shipment data disaggregated between the North and Rest of Country regions 

(see cells AF4 to AK20 in the “Shipments Data” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs 

spreadsheet). This data was aggregated into 30 regions to match the RECS 2009 

regions used in this analysis (see cells BC4 to BN39 in the “Efficiency Data” worksheet 

of the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet).

AHRI did not provide state level data from 2004 to 2009. From 2004 to 2009, DOE used 

the 1992 to 2003 AHRI state level data together with the North and Rest of Country 2004 

to 2009 AHRI data to come up with disaggregated data estimates for each of the 30 

regions (see cells AW4 to BB39 in the “Efficiency Data” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs 

spreadsheet) as follows:

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1. 1992 to 2003 AHRI state level data was used to calculate the average 

condensing fraction by the 30 regions used in the analysis as shown in cells D4 

to D39 in the “Efficiency Data” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet.

2. 2004 to 2009 AHRI North and Rest of Country data was used to calculate 

adjustment factors for each region as shown in cells AW51 to BB52 in the 

“Efficiency Data” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet.

3. The fractions from (1) and (2) are multiplied to generate the final fractions by the 

30 regions shown in cells AW4 to BB39 in the “Efficiency Data” worksheet of the 

Analysis Inputs spreadsheet.

SUB-QUESTION B: Bridging the current gap in state-level shipment data starting in 2010,

RESPONSE B: From 2010 to 2012, DOE used the 1992 to 2003 AHRI state level data 

together with 2010 to 2012 Energy Star data and 2004 to 2009 AHRI regional data to 

come up with estimates for each of the 30 regions (see cells AT4 to AV39 in the 

“Efficiency Data” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet) as follows:

1. 1992 to 2003 AHRI state level data was used to calculate the average 

condensing fraction by the 30 regions used in the analysis as shown in cells D4 

to D39 in the “Efficiency Data” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet.

2. From 2010 to 2012 DOE used national Energy Star data on the national fraction 

of condensing furnaces (see cells AT58 to AV58 in the “Efficiency Data” 

worksheet of the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet) and the 2004 to 2009 AHRI North 

and Rest of Country data average ratios (see cells E6 to E7 in the “Efficiency 

Data” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet) was used to calculate 

adjustment factors by region as shown in cells AT51 to AV52 in the “Efficiency 

Data” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet. 

3. The fractions from (1) and (2) are multiplied to generate the final fractions by the 

30 regions shown in cells AT4 to AV39 in the “Efficiency Data” worksheet of the 

Analysis Inputs spreadsheet.

SUB-QUESTION C: Determining the fractions of each condensing furnace efficiency level (90, 

92, 95, and 98% AFUE),

RESPONSE C: How DOE derived the fractions of condensing furnace efficiency level 

(90, 92, 95, and 98% AFUE) is described in section 8I.3 of Appendix 8I. DOE used a 

reduced model set of NWGF models based on the February 2013 version of the AHRI 

directory and furnace manufacturer input to come up with 2013 fractions for each of the 

efficiency levels. 

The development of reduced model set is further described in Appendix 7-D. This is the 

same the reduced model set that was used for the 2014 Residential Furnace Direct Final 

Rule Analysis. The raw data of the models data used is available in the “Model 

Directory” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet (cells B3 to X399 for noncondensing models and cells Z3 to AV556 for condensing models). To create the 

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fractions of NWGFs by efficiency levels, DOE used the following criteria to process the 

reduced AHRI model directory data (a summary of the resulting fractions is available in 

cells AH5 and AJ9 in the “Efficiency” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet):

1. The 80-percent AFUE bin: includes 80-percent to 81-percent AFUE models 

2. The 90-percent AFUE bin: includes 90-percent to 91-percent AFUE models

3. The 92-percent AFUE bin: includes 92-percent to 94-percent AFUE models

4. The 95-percent AFUE bin: includes 95-percent to 97-percent AFUE models

5. The 98-percent AFUE bin: includes 98-percent to 99-percent AFUE models

Based on furnace manufacturer input during the manufacturer interviews, DOE assumed 

that the fraction by furnace efficiency level varied by region (North and Rest of Country) 

and market segment (replacements and New construction) as follows (see cells W6 and 

Z9 in the “Efficiency” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet):

1. Replacements (North): Assumed to have the same distribution of efficiencies 

among the condensing units as in the reduced model set based on February 

2013 AHRI Directory as described above. 

2. Replacements (Rest of Country): Higher efficiency levels (AFUE of 95 percent 

and 98 percent) were assumed to have one third as much of the market share as 

in North replacement market, and the remaining two thirds was distributed to the 

lower efficiency levels (AFUE of 90 percent and 92 percent). DOE assumed that 

the fraction of 95-percent AFUE and above shipments would be higher (three 

times more) in the North compared to the Rest of Country because of furnace 

manufacturer input and the higher ENERGY STAR level in the North (95-percent 

AFUE) compared to Rest of Country (90-percent AFUE). 

3. New Construction (North): Based on manufacturer input, higher efficiency levels 

(AFUE of 95 percent or 98 percent) in new construction were assumed to have 

one half as much of the market share as in North replacement market, and that 

the remaining half is distributed to the lower efficiency levels (AFUE of 90 percent 

and 92 percent).

4. New Construction (Rest of Country): Based on manufacturer input, higher 

efficiency levels (AFUE of 95 percent and 98 percent) in new construction were 

assumed to have one half as much of the market share as in replacement Rest 

of Country market, and that the remaining half is distributed to the lower 

efficiency levels (AFUE of 90 percent and 92 percent). 

SUB-QUESTION D: Dis-aggregating state-level shipment data into new vs. replacement and 

residential vs. commercial,

RESPONSE D: The disaggregated state level data is grouped into the corresponding 30 

regions for residential furnaces installed in residential applications for replacements (see 

cells V15 and Z44 of the “Efficiency” worksheet of the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet) and 

for new construction (see cells V49 and Z78 in the “Efficiency” worksheet in the Analysis 

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Inputs spreadsheet). The disaggregated state level data is grouped into 9 census 

divisions to map to CBECS 2003 data for residential furnaces installed in commercial 

applications for replacements (see cells AK15 and AO23 of the “Efficiency” worksheet of 

the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet) and new construction (see cells AK49 and AO57 in the 

“Efficiency” worksheet in the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet).

SUB-QUESTION E: Adjusting projected 2021 state level shipment data that was based on 

historical data trends (e.g., 5% non-condensing furnace limit if projected condensing furnace 

shipments exceeds 95% of the state shipments)

RESPONSE E: For the projected 2013 to 2050 market shares for each of the 30 regions 

used in the analysis, 1994 to 2004 trends were used (see cells AK4 to AS39 in the 

“Efficiency Data” worksheet in the Analysis Inputs spreadsheet). The maximum share of 

condensing shipments for each of the 30 regions is assumed to be 95 percent. In other 

words, at least five percent of NWGF furnace shipments will be non-condensing.

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