Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas’s 

Austin Program 

Submitted to:

AmeriCorps

250 E St., SW

Washington, DC 20024

Submitted by:

ICF Incorporated, LLC

9300 Lee Highway

Fairfax, VA 22031

https://www.icf.com

September 21, 2022 

This report was commissioned by AmeriCorps’ Office of Research and Evaluation 

under Contract # GS00Q14OADU209 and Order # 5332A20R0013. Information in this 

report is in the public domain. Please, direct communications related to this report to 

Lily Zandniapour at lzandniapour@cns.gov and Sarah Yue at syue@cns.gov. 

Cite this report as follows: Clark, D., Borgida, J., Kulka, L., Miller, B., Modicamore, D., 

Pershing, J., Thompson, P., Sarwana, M., & Voigt, G. (2022). Return on Investment 

Study: Breakthrough Austin. ICF.
Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

i 

CONTENTS 

Executive Summary...............................................................................................................ES-1

Program Description .........................................................................................................ES-1

Overview of Benefits and Costs.......................................................................................ES-2

ROI Results..........................................................................................................................ES-2

Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1

Program Description...................................................................................................................2

Population Served..................................................................................................................2

Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin Program Evaluation History.....................................3

Comparable ROI Estimates...................................................................................................4

ROI Methodology .......................................................................................................................6

Monetizing Program Benefits, Forgone Benefits (Opportunity Costs), and Program 

Costs ........................................................................................................................................8

ROI Study Limitations............................................................................................................16

Program Benefits, Forgone Benefits (Opportunity Costs), Program Costs, and ROI 

Results ........................................................................................................................................17

Program Benefits ..................................................................................................................17

Forgone Benefits (Opportunity Costs)................................................................................18

Program Costs ......................................................................................................................19

ROI Results.............................................................................................................................21

Recommendations for Further Research................................................................................24

Conclusion ................................................................................................................................25

Appendix A: Program Benefits, Forgone Benefits, and Program Costs Included in 

Return on Investment Calculations.........................................................................................26

Appendix B: Additional Information on the Methodology...................................................34

Methodology Overview ......................................................................................................34

Measuring Program Benefits...............................................................................................35

Measuring Forgone Benefits (Opportunity Costs).............................................................56

Measuring Program Costs ...................................................................................................60

Calculating ROI ....................................................................................................................60

Appendix C: Results by Year...................................................................................................63

References ................................................................................................................................68
Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

ii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Benefits Among Stakeholder Groups From Breakthrough Central Texas..............7

Figure 2. Program Benefits by Stakeholder Group................................................................18

Figure 3. Program Cost by Funding Source ...........................................................................20

Figure 4. Unemployment Status Results From Friedman et al. (2016)..................................40

Figure 5. Compound Interest Formula Used to Calculate Investment Opportunity Cost 59

LIST OF TABLES

Table ES-1. ROI Estimates ......................................................................................................ES-3

Table 1. Selected Demographic Characteristics of Middle School Population Served 

Through Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin Program During Fiscal Year 2019–2020 .......3

Table 2. Relevant ROI Studies....................................................................................................5

Table 3. Benefits Realized From Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin Program by 

Stakeholder Group.....................................................................................................................8

Table 4. Program Benefits by Recipient .................................................................................17

Table 5. Forgone Benefits From Professional Opportunity Cost...........................................19

Table 6. Investment Opportunity Cost by Scenario and Funding Stream..........................19

Table 7. Program Cost by Funding Source for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin 

Program .....................................................................................................................................20

Table 8. Program Benefits, Net Benefits, and Program Costs by ROI Scenario..................21

Table 9. ROI Results for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin Program...............................23

Table 10. Benefits and Costs Included in the Breakthrough Central Texas ROI 

Calculation ................................................................................................................................26

Table 11. Additional High School Graduates and Expected Median Annual Additional 

Earnings (2021$)........................................................................................................................36

Table 12. Additional Bachelor’s Degree Graduates and Expected Median Annual 

Additional Earnings (2021$).....................................................................................................37

Table 13. Additional Earnings for Breakthrough Participants and Resulting Public 

Benefits by Scenario (2021$) ...................................................................................................37

Table 14. Breakthrough AmeriCorps Member Benefits From the Living Allowance and 

Education Award .....................................................................................................................39

Table 15. Additional Pre-Tax Earnings for Breakthrough AmeriCorps Members 

From Reduced Unemployment Based on Breakthrough AmeriCorps Member 

Demographics ..........................................................................................................................41
Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

iii

Table 16. Cumulative Additional Post-Tax Earnings Derived From Reduced 

Unemployment Due to Serving With the Breakthrough Program by Scenario..................41

Table 17. Average Total Cost of Education and Portion Attributable to Education 

Award by Degree Type............................................................................................................43

Table 18. Estimates of the Number of Postsecondary Degrees Pursued Using the 

Education Award by Degree Type.........................................................................................44

Table 19. Additional Earnings From AmeriCorps Members’ Use of the Education 

Award ........................................................................................................................................45

Table 20. Government Costs by Education Attainment Level per Individual's Lifetime...52

Table 21. 2020 Tax Rates and Ratio of Taxable Expenditures for Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps Members’ Earnings, Living Allowances, and Education Awards...................53

Table 22. State/Local and Federal Government Benefits by Stakeholder Group and 

by Scenario ...............................................................................................................................54

Table 23. Forgone Earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps Members for a Service Term ..57

Table 24. Forgone Taxes Associated With the Forgone Earnings of Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps Members for a Service Term ..............................................................................58

Table 25. Forgone Benefits From Investment Opportunity Cost Calculation by Scenario 

and Funding Stream.................................................................................................................60

Table 26. Funding Sources and Amounts for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin 

Program (2018–2019)................................................................................................................60

Table 27. ROI Calculations for Short-Term Scenario..............................................................61

Table 28. ROI Calculations for Medium-Term Scenario........................................................62

Table 29. ROI Calculations for Long-Term Scenario..............................................................62

Table 30. Breakthrough Central Texas Program Benefits and Costs per Year ...................64
Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

iv

AUTHORS 

This study was conducted by researchers from ICF and BCT Partners: 

• Danny Clark, ICF, Research Analyst 

• Julia Borgida, ICF, Public Policy Researcher

• Lisa Kulka, BCT Partners, Research and Evaluation Analyst

• Benjamin Miller, ICF, Senior Director

• Dominic Modicamore, ICF, Lead Economist

• Janet Pershing, ICF, Vice President

• Miriam Sarwana, BCT Partners, Research and Evaluation Manager

• Phylicia Thompson, BCT Partners, Research and Evaluation Analyst

• George Voigt, ICF, Economics Analyst
ES-1 

Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

Executive Summary 

Program Description

Breakthrough Central Texas is an affiliate of 

Breakthrough Collaborative, a national 

college preparation program for low-income 

middle school students who are soon-to-be 

first-generation college students. 

Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program 

offers out-of-school learning opportunities, 

leadership experiences, and personalized 

advising. 

Those services help students overcome 

systemic, societal barriers to earning college 

degrees. AmeriCorps members serve as 

caseworkers in the program, providing 

academic support and guidance, monitoring 

students’ grades, holding students 

accountable for their academic 

performance, and providing students with 

resources they need to be successful. 

The program commits to working with each 

student for 12 years to successfully guide 

them and their families through the complex 

process of preparing for, enrolling in, and completing college.

To better understand the impact of the program in relation to costs, AmeriCorps 

commissioned a return on investment (ROI) analysis by ICF, an independent research 

firm. ROI analyses of national service programs estimate the monetary value of benefits 

that a program generates per dollar invested.

The ROI analysis estimated the Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program’s ROI to be 

between $0.03 and $10.22 per funder dollar, depending on how long program 

participants and AmeriCorps members experience increased earnings as a result of the 

program. The return on each dollar of federal support for the program is between $0.16

and $54.56. These results are driven by favorable employment and education 

outcomes for AmeriCorps members following their service as well as by favorable 

employment outcomes for program participants once they enter the workforce, 

resulting from increased educational attainment. 

AmeriCorps, the federal agency for 

volunteerism and national service, 

provides opportunities for Americans 

to serve their country domestically, 

address the nation’s most pressing 

challenges, improve lives and 

communities, and strengthen civic 

engagement. Each year, the 

agency invests more than $800 

million in grants for local nonprofit, 

community, tribal, and state 

organizations; places more than 

250,000 AmeriCorps members and 

AmeriCorps Seniors volunteers in 

intensive service roles; and 

empowers millions more to serve as 

long-term, short-term, or one-time 

volunteers. Learn more at 

AmeriCorps.gov. 
ES-2 

Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

Overview of Benefits and Costs

To calculate the ROI, the program benefits were identified, quantified, and compared 

to the program’s costs. Benefits of Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program include: 

• Additional lifetime earnings resulting from improved education and employment 

outcomes. Because of the program, participants will have support and services in 

the process of preparing for and completing college, and as a result will have

higher lifetime earnings.

• Additional earnings by AmeriCorps members. Serving in AmeriCorps leads to 

increased wages and reduced unemployment post-national service through skill 

acquisition, as well as increased educational attainment post-service.

• Living allowances, stipends, and education awards. AmeriCorps members 

receive living allowances and stipends during their national service and receive a 

Segal AmeriCorps Education Award after successful completion. 

• Increased tax revenue for government. Federal, state, and local governments 

receive more income tax revenue from increased AmeriCorps member earnings 

post-service and from program participants once they enter the workforce. State 

and local governments also realize additional sales tax revenue related to those 

earnings. Federal and state governments also realize tax revenue from the 

taxable living allowances, stipends, and education awards provided to 

AmeriCorps members. 

• Reduced lifetime spending on corrections, public assistance, and social 

insurance. Because of the increase in secondary and postsecondary educational 

attainment for AmeriCorps members and program participants, federal and state 

governments spend less on these items. 

The estimated annual cost for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin middle school 

program in 2019 is $810,388, of which $151,845 is estimated to be funded by the federal 

government, or roughly 19 percent. 

ROI Results

Table ES-1 shows the ROI results. Each row represents a different ROI calculation 

depending on which benefits are considered (all benefits or only benefits to the federal 

government) and which funding is considered (federal funding only or all funding). 

The ROIs are presented as dollars returned for every dollar of investment. The analysis 

used three different scenarios to estimate benefits under different assumptions. 

Specifically, the study assumed that increased earnings attributable to the program 

lasted for 1 year (short-term scenario), 15 years (medium-term scenario), or 30 years 

(long-term scenario).
ES-3 

Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

Table ES-1. ROI Estimates

ROI calculation

ROI scenario

Short-term Medium-term Long-term

Total benefits per federal dollar $0.16 $29.89 $54.56

Total benefits per funder dollar $0.03 $5.60 $10.22

Federal government benefits per federal dollar $0.06 $8.52 $15.24

The program produces strong returns for the medium- and long-term scenarios for all 

ROI calculations. The magnitude and direction of the results of the ROI calculations are 

driven by several factors:

• Income gains by program participants due to higher educational attainment. 

Breakthrough participants enjoy increased earnings during their working years

attributable to their increased educational attainment. 

• Additional earnings by AmeriCorps members. Serving in AmeriCorps leads to 

increased wages and reduced unemployment post-national service through skill 

acquisition, as well as increased educational attainment post-service.

• Reduced lifetime spending on corrections, public assistance, and social 

insurance. Because of the increase in secondary and postsecondary 

educational attainment for AmeriCorps members and program participants, 

federal and state governments spend less on these items. 

In the short-term scenario—which only includes benefits for 1 year post-program—the 

ROI results indicate that there is a short-term loss to all funders under all three ROI 

calculations. An ROI that is below $1 in the first year post-program is common in 

programs where there is an initial one-time investment made and benefits accrue in the 

following years. This is because it can require several years of benefits to recoup the 

initial investment and generate positive returns.
Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

1 

Introduction 

AmeriCorps contracted with ICF Incorporated, LLC (hereafter ICF) to research and 

quantify the return on investment (ROI) of several programs that rely on national 

service—specifically AmeriCorps—as a major resource to sustain operations. ROI 

analyses measure the performance of programs and build the base of evidence for 

future resource allocation decisions. ROI study results demonstrate the value of 

AmeriCorps programming to relevant stakeholders. 

This project began with a comprehensive literature review and preliminary assessments 

of whether ROI analyses were feasible for five national service programs. These 

feasibility studies included thorough reviews of these programs’ recent evaluations, 

detailed logic models, proposed ROI analysis methodologies for each program, and a 

scorecard mechanism that determined the viability of conducting an ROI analysis for 

each selected program. 

Upon completion of five feasibility studies, AmeriCorps selected four programs to be the 

subjects of ROI studies for fiscal year 2022: Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program, 

Nevada Conservation Corps, SBP, and Washington State Department of Veterans 

Affairs Vet Corps. This ROI study measures the benefits of Breakthrough Central Texas’s 

Austin program against costs. 

This study is organized into five sections:

• Program Description describes the program’s design, activities, and objectives, 

along with the role that national service (specifically AmeriCorps) plays in its 

operation. This section also provides a brief history of past evaluations, outlines 

the factors that made this program a strong selection for an ROI study, 

underscores the population this program serves, and identifies a set of ROI 

estimates of other programs that have similarities to Breakthrough Central Texas’s 

Austin program. 

• ROI Methodology outlines how this analysis used various data sources to 

monetize benefits derived from Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program, 

describes its associated program costs, and explains how opportunity costs were 

calculated. 

• Benefits, Forgone Benefits (Opportunity Cost), Program Costs, and ROI Results

provides a detailed description of the program benefits, forgone benefits 

(opportunity cost), and program costs that are inputs into the ROI analyses and 

presents the results of the three ROI calculations across different assumptions. 

• Recommendations for Further Research explores ways AmeriCorps and others 

could further build the evidence base for this program and similar programs, 

including how to address limitations of this study.

• Conclusion summarizes key points from the ROI study overall.
Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

2 

Program Description 

Breakthrough Central Texas is an affiliate of Breakthrough Collaborative, a national 

college preparation program for low-income middle school students who are soon-tobe first-generation college students. Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program offers 

out-of-school learning opportunities, leadership experiences, and personalized advising. 

Those services help students overcome systemic, societal barriers to earning college 

degrees. AmeriCorps members serve as caseworkers in the program, providing 

academic support and guidance, monitoring students’ grades and holding students 

accountable for their academic performance, and providing students with resources 

they need to be successful. The program commits to working with each student for 

12 years to successfully guide them and their families through the complex process of 

preparing for, enrolling in, and completing college.

Population Served

Table 1 shows the demographic characteristics of the students served by Breakthrough 

Central Texas’s Austin program.1 The students served by the program are diverse in 

terms of age, race, gender, location, and other background characteristics. 

All students served by Breakthrough would be first-generation college graduates. 

The majority of students served identify as non-white and low income. 2,118 students 

were served by the program in the 2019–2020 academic year, with 281 middle school 

and 383 high school students in the program. Of the 485 students who graduated 

high school as of 2020, 179 have become first-generation college students. 

1 Will Davies, Breakthrough Central Texas contact, personal communication, March 9, 2022. Hereafter, all 

instances of Breakthrough Central Texas referenced as a data source were retrieved from this 

communication.
Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

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Table 1. Selected Demographic Characteristics of Middle School Population Served 

Through Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin Program During Fiscal Year 2019–20202

Characteristic Percentage

Race/ethnicity 

Hispanic/Latino 81% 

Black/African American 14% 

White 1% 

Asian 3% 

Multiracial 1% 

Gender

Female 52% 

Male 48% 

Grade

7th grade 55% 

8th grade 45% 

Source: Breakthrough Central Texas

Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin Program Evaluation History

There have been two evaluations completed for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin 

program: Malerba (2011) and Hutson and Lamb (2020). This study used outcome data

from both for the ROI analysis. 

Evaluation Report: Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin Independent School 

District (AISD) Impact Report3

Breakthrough Central Texas’s 2020 evaluation assessed the effect of participation in 

their middle school program on college graduation rates. Students enrolled in the 

Breakthrough program in 7th grade who went on to graduate from Austin Independent 

School District (AISD) were more likely to enroll in and graduate from college. The 

authors developed a comparison group of students attending in the same school years 

who also graduated from AISD with propensity score matching for the Breakthrough 

sample. For propensity score matching, the authors used AISD administrative data 

student demographics, academic performance, attendance, and school disciplinary 

records. The study estimated that participants were 7 percentage points more likely to 

graduate with a bachelor’s degree than non-participants. 

2 This fiscal year was representative of the most recent data available regarding the population served.

3 Hutson and Lamb (2020). Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin Independent School District (AISD) impact 

report. 
Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

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Evaluation Report: Breakthrough Austin Impact Study

Breakthrough’s 2011 evaluation (Malerba, 2011) assessed the high school graduation 

and college enrollment rates among participants and non-participants of Breakthrough 

Central Texas’s Austin program who were in 7th grade in the 2001–2002 through 

2003–2004 school years. The study found, after controlling for student demographic, 

academic, and behavioral characteristics, that participating students were 3 times 

more likely than non-participating students to graduate from high school and nearly 

2 times more likely to enroll in college. After creating propensity block groups, the 

authors analyzed the impact by subgroup. They found more marginal impacts on 

graduation and enrollment for the highest achieving students: a 3-percentage-point

increase in high school graduation rate and a 16-percentage-point higher likelihood of 

enrolling in college. They found more significant impacts for students who only met 

6th grade academic standards: a 10-percentage-point increase in graduation and a 

63-percentage-point increase in enrollment. They also found more significant impacts 

for students who had somewhat lower scores on state reading and math assessments: 

an 18-percentage-point increase in graduation and a 20-percentage-point increase in 

enrollment. Pooling the blocks together resulted in a 10-percentage-point increase in 

high school graduation rate.

Selection of Program for the AmeriCorps ROI Project 

ICF recommended making Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program the subject of 

an ROI study based on recent evaluations that documented program outcomes. These 

were related to college enrollment and graduation rates of participants who received 

tutoring and case management services in middle school. 

This ROI analysis of Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program will have relevance to 

similar Breakthrough Collaborative programs nationwide and other college access 

programs for middle school students. 

This is the first AmeriCorps ROI study on an intervention at the middle school level. 

Comparable ROI Estimates

ROI studies of other programs that offer similar services provide context for ROI findings. 

Relevant studies are described below and summarized in Table 2. 

The Joint State Government Commission of Pennsylvania commissioned an ROI analysis

of 10 afterschool and out-of-school educational programs in Pennsylvania. The report 

included programs with various objectives, ranging from social/emotional skill 

development to athletics/wellness to college preparatory programming for students in 

grades K–12. The ROI methodology assumed an investment of $50 million in state 

funding. The authors estimated this would allow 21,739 additional students to attend an 

out-of-school-time (OST) program for a year. Four negative behavior categories were

examined: adolescent pregnancy, violence and crime, high school dropout, and 

substance use. The authors estimated the reduction in negative behavior using findings 

from other literature. The percentage of risk reduction was multiplied by the 21,739 

additional program participants to estimate the reduction in negative behaviors by OST 

programming. This was multiplied by the annual and lifetime costs of these negative 
Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

5 

behaviors to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania per student to determine savings. 

They determined the ROI is $6.69 for each $1 invested (Joint State Government 

Commission, 2021). 

Millett and Nettles (2009) evaluated seven programs supported by Developing 

High-Potential Youth (DHPY) program grants. The main objective of the programs is to 

increase the number of traditionally underrepresented students enrolled at top colleges 

and universities in the United States. The programs have served nearly 2,000 middle and 

high school students. The authors analyzed the returns to program participants

compared to program costs. They calculated the increase in university applications 

and enrollments for program participants by comparing each program’s rates with 

national rates. First, the authors estimated the number of additional program 

participants who enrolled in a selective university compared to national enrollments. 

They estimated the lifetime earnings advantage for students who graduated from a 

selective college compared to those who did not. Across the seven programs, they 

found an average return to individuals over their lifetime of $15 per dollar of program 

costs. Returns for individual programs in the set of seven ranged from $8 to $24 per 

dollar of program costs (Millett and Nettles, 2009).

The Boston Consulting Group analyzed the returns to individuals participating in Sutton 

Trust programs throughout the United Kingdom. The programs analyzed support toward 

college access for low-income students of ages ranging from 3 to 18. The benefits 

analysis focused on the increased earnings of program participants during their working 

years. They estimated a lifetime return of £15 for every £1 invested in the programs, or 

$30 for every $1 invested. The study found a wide variation in ROIs between types of

programs, ranging from £3 to £31 per £1 invested, or—in U.S. dollars—approximately 

$6 to $62 per $1 invested (The Sutton Trust, 2007). 

Table 2. Relevant ROI Studies

Study

College prep 

programming

Benefits/cost 

savings 

evaluated

Net benefits/cost 

savings per 

student or 

program ROI estimate 

Joint State 

Government 

Commission, 

General 

Assembly of The 

Commonwealth 

of Pennsylvania 

(2021)

Variety of out-ofschool programs 

that provide 

academic and 

college prep 

programming

Reduced 

adolescent 

pregnancy, 

violence and

crime, high 

school dropout, 

substance use

Benefits: $15,398 

per student

Costs: $2,318 per 

student

$6.69 for each 

$1 invested

Millett and

Nettles (2009)

College 

preparation 

program for 

traditionally 

underrepresented 

students 

Increased 

college 

applications and 

enrollments 

leading to 

increased 

lifetime earnings

Not calculated $15 for each 

$1 invested 
Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

6 

Study

College prep 

programming

Benefits/cost 

savings 

evaluated

Net benefits/cost 

savings per 

student or 

program ROI estimate 

The Sutton Trust 

(2007)

Academic and 

college 

preparation

programming 

serving students

of various grade 

levels

Enrollment and 

graduation from 

university

leading to 

increased 

lifetime earnings

Not calculated $6–$62 for each 

$1 invested

ROI Methodology 

The methodology for estimating the ROI for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin 

program consisted of the following components: 

1. Measuring and monetizing program benefits. This included using program data 

provided by Breakthrough Central Texas, publicly available data, and other 

third-party sources to determine the benefits to program participants, 

AmeriCorps members, and the government. 

2. Estimating forgone benefits (opportunity costs). This ROI analysis estimated two 

types of forgone benefits. The first was the professional opportunity cost to

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members for their period of national service, during 

which they could have earned more pay by doing other work. The second was 

the investment opportunity cost for Breakthrough AmeriCorps program funding 

that could have been used for other purposes. 

3. Assessing program costs. Breakthrough Central Texas provided program costs for 

the program year of September 2018 through August 2019. Breakthrough Central 

Texas costs for the 2018–2019 program year included operating costs, 

AmeriCorps member expenses, and other indirect costs. AmeriCorps member 

expenses included the living allowance amounts received during service and 

the expected education awards received post-service. 

4. Calculating the ROI. The ROI analysis includes three ROI calculations, each 

assessed under three scenarios representing different assumptions about the 

persistence of program outcomes: 

• Total benefits per federal dollar

• Total benefits per funder dollar4 

• Federal government benefits per federal dollar

4 The different funder groups whose investment is in this calculation include the federal government 

(i.e., AmeriCorps) and match funding from state and local governments.
Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

7 

This analytical framework includes only those benefits that could be reasonably 

monetized given the available data and that likely would not have occurred without 

Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program. Figure 1 shows how Breakthrough Central 

Texas’s Austin program activities can result in benefits to Breakthrough Central Texas’s 

Austin program participants; Breakthrough AmeriCorps members; and federal, state, 

and local governments. 

Figure 1. Benefits Among Stakeholder Groups From Breakthrough Central Texas

Available data establish that Breakthrough AmeriCorps members enjoy earnings 

impacts as a result of serving with Breakthrough Central Texas. However, the data do 

not establish the duration of those benefits. To address a range of possible durations for 

those benefits, the analysis includes three scenarios:5 

• Short-term. This scenario assumes short-term earnings impacts. The assumption is

that earnings impacts are limited to a single year after program exit. This scenario

also assumes no lifetime benefits are realized.

• Medium-term. This scenario assumes a longer duration of earnings impacts.

The assumption is that earnings impacts last 15 years. A 3 percent discount rate is

applied each year to represent net present value in 2021 dollars.6 This scenario

also assumes only half of the net present value of lifetime benefits is realized.

5 These three scenarios consider varying durations of how long increased employment and earnings 

benefits last for Breakthrough AmeriCorps members. They also consider varying durations for lifetime 

benefits that stem from the Breakthrough program. For example, lifetime benefits in terms of decreased 

public assistance, social insurance, and corrections costs result from Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’

higher educational attainment post-service. The analysis estimates lifetime benefits differently in the three 

scenarios. Specifically, the net present value of the entire lifetime benefit is realized for the long-term 

scenario, half of the net present value of the lifetime benefit is realized for the medium-term scenario, and 

no lifetime benefit amount is realized for the short-term scenario.

6 The Office of Management and Budget (1992) defines a discount rate as, “The interest rate used in 

calculating the present value of expected yearly benefits and costs” (p. 18). Regarding the 3 percent

discount rate, see Office of Management and Budget (2003).
Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

8 

• Long-term. This scenario assumes sustained earnings impacts throughout 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ working years. The assumption is that 

earnings impacts last 30 years. A 3 percent discount rate is applied each year to 

represent net present value in 2021 dollars. This scenario also assumes the entire 

net present value of lifetime benefits is realized.

The long-term scenario (i.e., 30 years of sustained employment and earnings benefits) 

represents roughly a lifetime of working years for a given person while the short-term 

scenario assumes benefits for only the year after program participation or service is 

completed. The medium-term scenario (i.e., 15 years of sustained employment and 

earnings benefits) represents the midpoint between these two scenarios. 

Monetizing Program Benefits, Forgone Benefits (Opportunity Costs), 

and Program Costs

This analysis monetized an array of benefits and included Breakthrough Central Texas’s 

Austin program costs and expected opportunity costs—all in 2021 dollars—to assess the 

ROI of Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program. Additional details on the 

methodology employed and the calculations used for this analysis are in Appendix B.

Data on costs and benefits are from the 2018–2019 school year, prior to any disruptions 

from the COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2020.

Outcomes of Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program result in monetizable 

benefits to the participants of Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program; 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members; and federal, state, and local governments. Table 3 

summarizes these benefits and data sources by stakeholder group.

Table 3. Benefits Realized From Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin Program by 

Stakeholder Group

Stakeholder group Benefits

Breakthrough participants • Additional lifetime earnings from increased educational 

attainment as a result of educational support services

Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members

• Additional earnings from reduced unemployment 

• Additional lifetime earnings from increased educational 

attainment as a result of education awards

• Post-tax living allowances and education awards 
Return on Investment Study: 

Breakthrough Central Texas, Austin

9 

Stakeholder group Benefits

Federal, state, and local 

governments 

• Tax revenue from increased earnings by Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members post-program and sales tax 

revenue from the induced increased economic activity

• Tax revenue from living allowances and education 

awards 

• Reduced lifetime spending on corrections, public 

assistance, and social insurance from increased 

educational attainment by Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members as a result of education awards

• Reduced lifetime spending on corrections, public 

assistance, and social insurance from increased 

educational attainment by Breakthrough participants 

as a result of education awards

• Lifetime tax revenue from increased educational 

attainment by Breakthrough AmeriCorps members as a 

result of program service

• Lifetime tax revenue from increased educational 

attainment by Breakthrough participants as a result of 

program participation

Benefits to Program Participants 

Additional Lifetime Earnings From Increased Educational Attainment as a Result 

of Program Participation (Benefit to Breakthrough Program Participants) 

The analysis used the following finding from Hutson and Lamb (2020) to estimate how 

many additional Breakthrough participants graduate college: 32 percent of 

Breakthrough participants graduated from bachelor programs compared to 25 percent 

of non-Breakthrough participants, significant at the 0.05 level. 

The analysis used Malerba (2011) to estimate the impact of the Breakthrough program 

on the number of participants that graduate high school: 96 percent of Breakthrough 

participants graduated high school and 86 percent of non-Breakthrough participants 

graduated high school, significant at the 0.05 level. 

The analysis used the number of additional high school and college graduates to 

quantify the additional earnings they obtain due to this increased educational 

attainment. The analysis used the 2019 Current Population Survey to estimate median 

income by race, gender, and education (U.S. Census Bureau, 2019-c) and multiplied 

the annual difference in earnings estimate by the number of additional high school and 

college graduates by demographic group to calculate the total additional earnings 

due to the Breakthrough program. 
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Benefits to AmeriCorps Members 

Post-Tax Living Allowances and Education Awards (Benefits to Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps Members)

Some member-specific benefits realized due to AmeriCorps members serving in

Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program include the post-tax living allowances 

AmeriCorps State and National members are allotted during their national service and 

the post-tax education awards they receive after service completion. All are 

considered taxable income and thus result in increased government revenue.7 The 

post-tax living allowance and the education award amount that was used to repay 

student loans were included in the ROI analysis as direct one-time benefits to 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members. Since the ROI analysis only measures outcomes for 

middle school students, this value is multiplied by the proportion of middle school 

students served to the total student population to estimate the benefits attributable to 

middle school students only. 

Additional Earnings From Reduced Unemployment (Benefit to Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps Members)

Evaluations have shown that serving in AmeriCorps fosters higher skill acquisition, 

increased educational attainment, and higher income from increased employment 

post-national service.8 Freidman et al. (2016) found that unemployment among 

AmeriCorps members 6 months after their period of national service was 5 percentage 

points lower compared to 6 months before service.9 To monetize this decrease in 

unemployment, the analysis first determined the demographic distribution of 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps State and National members who served during the most 

recent program year in terms of race/ethnicity, gender, age, and education level preservice using data provided by Breakthrough Central Texas. The analysis then 

proceeded to:

1. Estimate Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ per-person average annual 

earnings (weighted by the above demographics) using data from the Current 

Population Survey’s Annual Social and Economic (ASEC) Supplement for 2020

(U.S. Census Bureau, 2020)

2. Multiply the 5-percentage-point reduction in unemployment from Freidman et al. 

(2016) by the number of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members who served during 

the most recent program year to estimate the number of additional

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members employed post-service

7 The tax implications of the AmeriCorps member education award are stated here: AmeriCorps. (n.d.). 

Segal AmeriCorps Education Award. https://americorps.gov/members-volunteers/segal-americorpseducation-award

8 Relevant studies include Markovitz et al., 2008; Spera et al., 2013; Friedman et al., 2016; Zeidenberg et al., 

2016.

9 See page 56 of Friedman et al. (2016).
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3. Multiply the demographically weighted per-person average annual earnings by 

the number of additional Breakthrough AmeriCorps members employed to 

estimate the total increased earnings attributable to national service 

4. Multiply the total increased earnings by the proportion of middle school students 

to estimate the benefits attributable to working with middle school students of all 

students served

The earnings metrics for Breakthrough AmeriCorps members were applied and 

discounted based on the short-term, medium-term, and long-term scenarios to 

represent net present 2021 dollars. The post-tax Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ 

projected earnings represents the additional income earned by AmeriCorps members 

attributable to serving with Breakthrough Central Texas. 

Additional Lifetime Earnings From Increased Educational Attainment as a Result 

of Education Awards (Benefit to Breakthrough AmeriCorps Members)

Another benefit derived from national service is the higher educational attainment of 

AmeriCorps members. AmeriCorps members in general—as documented in Friedman 

et al. (2016)—can use their education awards to pay for additional postsecondary 

educational attainment or to repay student loans. 

Friedman et al. (2016) reported that 46 percent of AmeriCorps State and National 

members used their education award to pursue additional postsecondary education 

while 33 percent used it to repay student loans.10

This analysis estimated the expected increase in lifetime earnings of Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members attributable to the use of education awards to pay for additional 

postsecondary schooling. Based on the findings from Friedman et al. (2016), this ROI 

analysis estimated the amount in post-tax education awards that Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members used to pay for additional educational attainment. The analysis 

then estimated the value of the additional educational attainment attributable to the 

education awards in terms of lifetime earnings using data from Trostel (2015). This value 

was multiplied by the proportion of middle school students of all students served. These 

estimated additional post-tax lifetime earnings were included as a benefit to 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members.

Benefits to Government

Benefits to government include tax revenue generation and reduced spending on 

public assistance, social insurance, and corrections, resulting from increased earnings 

and educational attainment from Breakthrough AmeriCorps members and participants. 

10 Friedman et al. (2016). op. cit. Exhibit VIII-6.
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Benefits to Government From Increased Earnings Due to Educational Attainment 

by Breakthrough Program Participants

Federal and state governments benefit from increased educational attainment by 

Breakthrough program participants. Those benefits include:

• Reduced lifetime spending on corrections, public assistance, and social 

insurance from increased educational attainment as a result of education 

awards. Educational attainment is associated with less dependence on 

government assistance programs and lower incarceration rates (Blagg and 

Blom, 2018; Harlow, 2003). Because of Breakthrough program participants’ 

increased secondary and postsecondary educational attainment, federal and 

state governments spend less. For the monetization of these benefits, the analysis 

paired the expected increase in educational attainment of Breakthrough 

program participants with the expected difference in per-person lifetime 

government cost savings from Medicaid, SNAP, unemployment insurance, 

workers’ compensation, and corrections for individuals with different levels of 

educational attainment. The latter values were provided by Levin (2007) and 

Trostel (2015). 

• Lifetime tax revenue from increased educational attainment as a result of 

program participation. Another benefit related to Breakthrough program 

participants captured in this ROI study is the lifetime tax revenue generated from 

participants’ increased educational attainment due to program participation. 

Here, the estimated increase in Breakthrough program participants’ earnings 

was multiplied by relevant tax rates. This tax revenue includes federal income, 

state income, property, Social Security, Medicare, and sales taxes.

Benefits to Government From Increased Earnings by Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

Members 

Federal, state, and local governments benefit from increased earnings by Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members due to lower unemployment as a result of service. Those benefits 

include:

• Income tax revenue from increased earnings by Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members post-service. Federal income taxes, state income taxes, Medicare 

taxes, and Social Security taxes were estimated for the additional pre-tax 

earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members based on 2020 rates. For both 

federal and state income taxes, the analysis estimated proportional tax rates 

representing the share of earnings paid in taxes. 

To estimate proportional tax rates that reflect federal- and state-level progressive 

tax brackets and standard deductions, the amount of total taxes paid was 

divided by the pre-tax earnings per Breakthrough AmeriCorps member. For the 

state income tax rate, the analysis weighted individual state-level rates by their 

respective state populations to estimate a weighted national tax rate to apply 

program-wide. A weighted national tax rate was used because Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members may disperse to various locations nationwide following 

their service terms and continue to migrate over the course of their working 
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years. These values were multiplied by the proportion of middle school students 

in the program to estimate the benefits attributable to the outcomes measured. 

• Sales tax revenue from the increased economic activity that results from 

increased earnings by Breakthrough AmeriCorps members post-service. 

To estimate the additional sales tax revenue generated due to the additional 

post-tax earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members, the combined state 

and average local sales tax rate for the United States—weighted by states’ 

populations—was calculated. This analysis applied that rate to the estimated 

taxable expenditures of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members based on their 

post-service pre-tax earnings using Consumer Expenditure Survey data 

(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2021).11 The resulting product was then applied to 

the share of post-tax earnings attributable to serving with Breakthrough Central 

Texas to estimate state and local government sales tax revenue. This value was 

multiplied by the proportion of middle school students of all students served. 

Benefits to Government From Increased Earnings Due to Educational Attainment 

by Breakthrough AmeriCorps Members

Federal and state governments benefit from increased postsecondary educational 

attainment by Breakthrough AmeriCorps members. Those benefits include:

• Tax revenue from education awards. Education awards provided to 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members upon service completion are subject to 

taxes, resulting in additional government revenue.12 This ROI analysis applied 

federal income, state income, Social Security, and Medicare tax rates to the 

expected total amount of education awards to be given to Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members to estimate these additional taxes. This value was 

multiplied by the proportion of middle school students of all students served. 

Both estimated proportional federal and state income tax rates were used. 

Sales taxes were not estimated for education awards because they cannot be 

used for consumer purchases. 

• Reduced lifetime spending on corrections, public assistance, and social 

insurance from increased educational attainment as a result of education 

awards. Higher educational attainment is associated with less dependence 

on government assistance programs and lower incarceration rates (Blagg and

Blom, 2018; Harlow, 2003). Because of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ 

increased postsecondary educational attainment due to the use of the 

education award, federal and state governments spend less. For the 

monetization of these benefits, the analysis paired the expected increase in 

11 To calculate the estimated taxable expenditures, Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) Table 1203 was 

used from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2021). This table lists the annual expenditure means by pre-tax 

income tax brackets. Thus, the pre-tax earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members were used instead 

of their post-tax earnings to calculate this metric. Please visit this site for more details: 

https://www.bls.gov/cex/tables/calendar-year/mean-item-share-average-standard-error.htm#cu-income. 

12 The tax implications of the AmeriCorps member education award are stated here: AmeriCorps. (n.d.). 

Segal AmeriCorps Education Award. https://americorps.gov/members-volunteers/segal-americorpseducation-award
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postsecondary educational attainment of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members 

with the expected difference in per-person lifetime government cost savings 

from Medicaid, SNAP, unemployment insurance, workers’ compensation, and 

corrections for individuals with different levels of educational attainment. 

The latter values were provided by Trostel (2015). This value was multiplied by 

the proportion of middle school students of all students served. 

• Lifetime tax revenue from increased educational attainment as a result of 

education awards. Another benefit related to Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members captured in this ROI study is the lifetime tax revenue generated from 

members’ higher postsecondary educational attainment due to the use of the 

education award. Here, the estimated increase in Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members’ postsecondary educational attainment was paired with the expected 

difference in per-person lifetime taxes for individuals with different levels of 

education as provided by Trostel (2015). This lifetime tax revenue includes federal 

income, state income, property, Social Security, Medicare, and sales taxes 

derived from use of the education award. This value was multiplied by the 

proportion of middle school students of all students served. 

Benefits to Government From Living Allowances Received by Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps Members

The living allowance provided to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members during their 

service term is considered taxable income. This analysis applied a proportional federal 

income tax rate as well as Medicare and Social Security tax rates to the pre-tax living 

allowance amount received by Breakthrough AmeriCorps members for the most recent 

program year. The analysis also applied a sales tax rate to the estimated taxable 

expenditures of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members based on their post-tax living 

allowance amount to estimate additional state and local government revenue. 

Forgone Benefits (Opportunity Costs) 

The analysis estimated forgone benefits of both members and funders because of their 

participation and investment in Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program. 

These forgone benefits were subtracted from the program benefits (shown above) to 

calculate the net benefits of the program. Those net benefits were then compared to 

program cost to calculate the ROI. These forgone benefits are referred to as the 

professional and investment opportunity costs, described below. 

Professional Opportunity Cost to Breakthrough AmeriCorps Members

The first opportunity cost was the professional opportunity cost to Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members for their period of national service, during which they could 

otherwise be working and earning higher pay. To calculate the opportunity cost, 

this analysis estimated what Breakthrough AmeriCorps members would have earned if 

they did not serve with Breakthrough Central Texas. Specifically, this analysis estimated 

the weighted average annual earnings of this group as well as their weighted 

unemployment rate using ASEC data and the demographic distribution of 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members for the 2020–2021 program year. The demographics 

included were gender, age, race/ethnicity, and the highest level of education pre-
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service. The weighted average annual earnings represent the expected earnings of the 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members if they were employed but not serving with 

Breakthrough Central Texas. The weighted unemployment rate represents how many of 

the Breakthrough AmeriCorps members would have been unemployed if they did not 

serve with Breakthrough Central Texas. These weighted metrics were first used to 

estimate the portion of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members who would have been 

employed and then to calculate the aggregate earnings those employed individuals 

would have made without serving with Breakthrough Central Texas. Namely, they are 

used to calculate the aggregate post-tax earnings this population would forgo due to 

serving with Breakthrough Central Texas for 1 year. 

Some of the forgone earnings would have been paid in the form of taxes. 

To appropriately allocate opportunity costs between Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members and government, the analysis estimated the reduced tax revenue for federal 

income, state income, Social Security, and Medicare taxes. The analysis also estimated 

the reduction in sales tax from reduced consumption. Combined, these taxes represent 

what the various levels of government are forgoing in tax revenue when these 

individuals decide to serve with Breakthrough Central Texas instead of working for 

higher pay. The summation of all forgone taxes and the forgone post-tax earnings of 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members is called the total professional opportunity cost. 

This value was multiplied by the proportion of middle school students of all students 

served. 

It is important to note that in the federal government benefits per federal dollar ROI 

calculation, only federal government (not total) benefits are included. Given this, only 

federal components of the professional opportunity cost were subtracted from all 

federal government benefits (e.g., tax revenue and cost savings) realized as a result of 

Breakthrough Central Texas in this ROI calculation. The parts of the professional 

opportunity cost removed from these total federal government benefits included the 

federal income, Social Security, and Medicare taxes forgone due to Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members forgoing earnings during their service year. This value was 

multiplied by the proportion of middle school students of all students served. The 

summation of these forgone federal taxes is called the federal professional opportunity 

cost. 

Investment Opportunity Cost to Funders

The second opportunity cost used in this ROI analysis is an investment opportunity cost. 

It estimates the expected forgone return if all funds used to support Breakthrough 

Central Texas’s Austin program during the 2020–2021 program year were invested in 

U.S. Treasury bonds instead. To calculate this, the analysis matched 2019 real interest 

rates provided by the Office of Management and Budget (2020) to each of the 

scenarios leveraged in this ROI analysis: short-term, medium-term, and long-term.13 

13 The analysis used 2019 real interest rates for U.S. Treasury bonds because the program year analyzed 

began in 2020. 
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The rates of return for U.S. Treasury bonds provide a market-based estimate of return for 

low-risk investments.

The real interest rate for the 3-year maturity was used for the short-term scenario, 

the average between the 10-year and 20-year maturity rates was used as the rate for 

the medium-term scenario, and the 30-year maturity rate was used for the long-term 

scenario. These real interest rates were 1.3 percent, 1.45 percent, and 1.5 percent, 

respectively (Office of Management and Budget, 2020). Also, the number of time 

periods elapsed on these bonds was equal to the number of years the short-term, 

medium-term, and long-term scenarios assume Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ 

employment and earnings gains are sustained, 1 year, 15 years, and 30 years, 

respectively. These bonds compound biannually, according to the U.S. Department of 

the Treasury (2019). The forgone accrued interest was calculated for each of the three 

scenarios if the funding amount used to support Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin 

program was instead invested.

Note that for 1) the federal government benefits per federal dollar and 2) the total 

benefits per federal dollar ROI calculations, the investment opportunity cost subtracted 

from the benefits in these calculations is the forgone accrued interest from investing 

only the federal funds into these U.S. Treasury bonds. This is called the federal investment 

opportunity cost. This is because these ROI calculations only include federal 

government (not total) program costs. For the other ROI calculation estimated in this 

analysis, the investment opportunity cost subtracted from the benefits realized is the 

forgone accrued interest from investing all Breakthrough Central Texas program funds 

(both federal and non-federal) into these U.S. Treasury bonds. This is called the total 

investment opportunity cost. See Appendix B for details. 

Program Costs 

The costs for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program, used for this ROI analysis, 

include federal and required match funding and any other funding used to support 

program operations. The match and any additional funding can come from state/local 

governments and private entities. The program costs are specific to funding the 

activities and positions of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members whose outcomes are 

measured in this analysis, namely the middle school students only. This was estimated 

based on per-student costs for middle school students and applied only to the number 

of middle school students, since the ROI analysis only includes that group. 

ROI Study Limitations

Study limitations include the following:

• While the researchers from the Hutson and Lamb (2020) study identified a control 

group that matched Breakthrough participants on measurable variables, the 

control and treatment groups may differ on unmeasured traits, such as 

motivation. 

• This ROI analysis does not capture other benefits beyond academic 

achievement that are part of Breakthrough Central Texas’s program model. 

These include improvement in students’ socio-emotional skill development, 
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chronic absenteeism, disciplinary incidents, positive relationship-building, 

extracurricular involvement, and civic engagement. Related literature does not 

provide a method for monetizing impacts related to these additional outcomes.

• Data on costs and benefits are from the 2018–2019 school year, prior to any 

disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2020. The analysis does 

not attempt to model the effect of those disruptions on ROI due to lack of data. 

The ROI estimates are relevant to more normal conditions.

Program Benefits, Forgone Benefits (Opportunity Costs), Program 

Costs, and ROI Results 

This section provides estimates of program benefits, forgone benefits (opportunity 

costs), and program costs, along with the ROI results.

Program Benefits 

Table 4 shows the estimates of monetized benefits of Breakthrough Central Texas’s 

Austin program by stakeholder group for each of the three scenarios. Figure 2 shows the 

estimates broken out into percentages.

Table 4. Program Benefits by Recipient

Recipient

Benefits by scenario (2021$)

Short-term Medium-term Long-term

Breakthrough program participants $0 $2,701,211 $5,110,444

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members $121,642 $326,930 $478,781

Federal government $33,836 $1,340,170 $2,391,564

State and local government $9,464 $474,307 $839,883

Total $164,942 $4,842,619 $8,820,672

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. 
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Figure 2. Program Benefits by Stakeholder Group

*Short-term percentages: Breakthrough program participants, 0% ; Breakthrough AmeriCorps members, 74%; 

federal government, 21%; state and local government, 6%. 

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. 

Forgone Benefits (Opportunity Costs)

Table 5 shows the breakdown of the forgone benefits from the professional opportunity 

cost to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members and government in net present 2021 dollars. 

It lists the amount of post-tax earnings that members are forgoing—and the associated 

taxes forgone—to serve with Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program. This is called 

the total professional opportunity cost. For the federal government benefits per federal 

dollar ROI calculation, only the forgone federal income, Social Security, and Medicare 

taxes were subtracted from the total federal benefits that are realized due to 

Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program. The summation of these forgone federal 

taxes is called the federal professional opportunity cost. 

 
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Table 5. Forgone Benefits From Professional Opportunity Cost

Forgone category

Professional opportunity 

cost amount across all scenarios (2021$)

Post-tax earnings $102,798

Federal income taxes $13,983

State income taxes $3,477

Social Security and Medicare taxes $9,498

Sales taxes $1,441

Total $131,198

Table 6 lists the forgone benefits from the investment opportunity cost incurred by 

scenario and for when:

a) Total Breakthrough Central Texas program funds for the program year are 

invested in U.S. Treasury bonds 

b) Only federal Breakthrough Central Texas program funds (both program and 

education award funding) are invested in these bonds 

Table 6 also lists the 2019 real interest rates and the number of years elapsed (with two 

payments a year) that were used as inputs to calculate the forgone accrued interest 

value for each scenario. The analysis used 2019 real interest rates for U.S. Treasury bonds 

because Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program year analyzed began in 2019. 

Table 6. Investment Opportunity Cost by Scenario and Funding Stream

Funding stream

Forgone accrued interest by scenario (2021$)

Short-term

(1.30% interest 

rate and 1 year 

elapsed)

Medium-term

(1.45% interest 

rate and 15 years 

elapsed)

Long-term

(1.50% interest 

rate and 30 years 

elapsed)

Total Breakthrough Austin

program funding $9,343 $173,358 $405,245

Federal Breakthrough Austin

program funding only $1,247 $23,143 $54,099

Program Costs

Table 7 shows the cost of Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program for the 

2019–2020 program year by funding source, and the percentage from each source is 

shown in Figure 3. As noted above, the program cost represents that used for 

Breakthrough Austin middle school students only. Total program cost amounted to 

$810,388, 19 percent of which is funded by AmeriCorps and 81 percent of which is 

funded by other entities, such as state and local government and private funders. 

The federal funds include the AmeriCorps State and National grant and the education 
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award amounts granted to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members once they completed 

their service term. Funds provided by state/local governments and private funds 

represent the match funding and other funding received by Breakthrough Central 

Texas’s Austin program to support program activities for the program year. This match 

and other funding provide Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program with the 

resources to offer more services and support to students than would otherwise be

available only under the AmeriCorps federal funds. That translates into increased 

aggregate benefits realized across stakeholder groups. 

Table 7. Program Cost by Funding Source for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin 

Program

Funder Funding provided for the program year 

AmeriCorps $151,845

Other funding (state/local government and private) $658,543

Total $810,388

Figure 3. Program Cost by Funding Source

81%

19%

AmeriCorps Other funding
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ROI Results

This analysis developed three ROI estimates using the three scenarios (short-term, 

medium-term, and long-term). As noted above, the ROI calculations compare the 

net benefits of Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program with the program cost 

to calculate the ROI. 

Table 8 shows the program gross benefits, forgone benefits, net benefits, and cost of 

Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program, and each of the components that are 

used to calculate the three ROIs.

Table 8. Program Benefits, Net Benefits, and Program Costs by ROI Scenario

Benefits and costs

ROI scenario (2021$)

Short-term Medium-term Long-term

Total program gross benefits $164,942 $4,842,619 $8,820,672

Breakthrough Austin (participants) $0 $2,701,211 $5,110,444

Member benefits $121,642 $326,930 $478,781

Federal government benefits $33,836 $1,340,170 $2,391,564

State/local government/other funder 

benefits

$9,464 $474,307 $839,883

Total forgone benefits (opportunity cost) $140,541 $304,556 $536,444

Forgone benefits to members (forgone 

earnings post-taxes) $102,798 $102,798 $102,798

Forgone tax revenue from members’ 

earnings $28,400 $28,400 $28,400

Forgone tax revenue federal 

government $23,482 $23,482 $23,482

Forgone tax revenue state/local 

government $4,918 $4,918 $4,918

Forgone benefits from total investment (all 

funders) $9,343 $173,358 $405,245

Forgone benefits from federal 

government investment $1,247 $23,143 $54,099

Forgone benefits from state/local 

government investment $8,095 $150,215 $351,145

Total program net benefits (total program 

gross benefits – total forgone benefits) $24,401 $4,538,063 $8,284,228

Net benefits Breakthrough Austin

(participants)

$0 $2,701,211 $5,110,444

Net benefits members (member benefits – 

forgone benefits members) $18,844 $224,132 $375,983
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Benefits and costs

ROI scenario (2021$)

Short-term Medium-term Long-term

Net benefits federal government (federal 

government benefits – forgone tax 

revenue to federal government – forgone 

benefits from federal government 

investment)

$9,107 $1,293,545 $2,313,983

Net benefits state/local government and 

other funders (state/local government 

benefits – forgone tax revenue to 

state/local government – forgone 

benefits from state/local government and 

other funder investment)

-$3,549 $319,174 $483,820

Program cost $810,388 $810,388 $810,388

Federal government cost $151,845 $151,845 $151,845

Non-federal government cost $658,543 $658,543 $658,543

ROI for total benefits per federal dollar 

(Total program net benefits / federal 

government cost)

$0.16 $29.89 $54.56

ROI for total benefits per funder dollar 

(Total program net benefits / program 

cost)

$0.03 $5.60 $10.22 

Federal government benefits per federal 

dollar (net benefits federal government / 

federal government cost) 

$0.06 $8.52 $15.24

Table 9 summarizes the ROI results for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program 

across the short-term, medium-term, and long-term scenarios. Three different ROI results 

are calculated for each scenario. Specifically, these ratios take the form of the sum of 

monetized benefits over the sum of applicable program costs. The ROIs expressed as 

cost–benefit ratios in this study can be interpreted as the amount of dollars returned for 

every $1 of investment (or program cost).14 See Appendix B for the formulas used to 

calculate each ROI calculation.

14 ROIs can be expressed in percentages or as ratios, such as in this study. Although not shown as a ratio in 

the results, the ROIs in this study show the amount of return for every $1 invested. 
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Table 9. ROI Results for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin Program

ROI calculation

ROI scenario

Short-term Medium-term Long-term

Total benefits per federal dollar $0.16 $29.89 $54.56

Total benefits per funder dollar $0.03 $5.60 $10.22

Federal government benefits per federal dollar $0.06 $8.52 $15.24

The program produces strong returns for the medium- and long-term scenarios for all 

ROI calculations. The magnitude and direction of the ROI results are driven by several 

factors: 

• Income gains by program participants due to higher educational attainment. 

Breakthrough participants enjoy increased earnings during their working years

attributable to their increased educational attainment. 

• Additional earnings by AmeriCorps members. Serving in AmeriCorps leads to 

increased wages and reduced unemployment post-national service through skill 

acquisition, as well as increased educational attainment post-service.

• Reduced lifetime spending on corrections, public assistance, and social 

insurance. Because of the increase in secondary and postsecondary 

educational attainment for AmeriCorps members and program participants, 

federal and state governments spend less on these items. 

In the short-term scenario—which only includes benefits for 1 year post-program—the 

ROI results indicate that there is a short-term loss to all funders under all three ROI 

calculations. An ROI that is below $1 in the first year post-program is common in 

programs where there is an initial one-time investment made and benefits accrue in the 

following years. This is because it can require several years of benefits to recoup the 

initial investment and generate positive returns.

Government funding serves as a catalyst for private funding of evidence-based social 

services programs. For the ROI calculations of 1) total benefits per federal dollar and 

2) total benefits per funder dollar, AmeriCorps’s requirement of match funding also 

contributed to the magnitude of outcomes. Federal government funding of 

Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program serves as a catalyst for other funding, 

specifically that from state and local governments. This additional funding—amounting 

to about $59,204 for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program for the most recent 

program year—allowed Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program to serve more 

parents and families than otherwise would have been served under the federal funding 

alone. Though it may not impact the ROI, because it is a per-unit metric, match funding 

leads to greater investment in Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program and thus to 

a greater impact as more individuals and families are served. 
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Recommendations for Further Research 

Future ROI studies for national and community service programs, such as Breakthrough 

Central Texas’s Austin program, can be strengthened in several ways. 

Recommendation 1: Determine the persistence of short- and long-term impacts for 

program participants and AmeriCorps members. The persistence of impacts, such as 

earnings or employment, is often not measured in evaluations because it requires 

long-term tracking. Although a scenario-based approach that accounts for variations 

in the persistence of impacts can be used, as was completed in this ROI analysis,

rigorous research on the long-term impact of programming will enable AmeriCorps to 

determine a single value for ROI calculations and avoid relying on the scenario-based 

approach. For example, Friedman et al. (2016) reported the unemployment status of 

AmeriCorps member alumni 6 months before service, 6 months after service, and during 

the summer of 2016. The authors indicate that data for the latter timepoint was 

collected anywhere from 3 to 11 years after service completion, depending on the 

AmeriCorps member alumni cohort (i.e., 2005, 2010, or 2013). The varying data 

collection periods for the cohorts makes it difficult to measure the duration of benefits. 

Thus, instead of collecting outcome measures at a time that varies by AmeriCorps 

member or program participant, studies should track outcomes of interest at the same 

intervals, multiple times after program or service completion, to provide greater insight 

into the duration and consistency of benefits.

Recommendation 2: Document outcomes using third-party data sources. Using thirdparty data, along with or in place of self-reported data, can also improve the accuracy 

of program outcome measurements. While self-reported data are easier to obtain—

especially via the use of survey instruments—they have several disadvantages. Some 

answers may be exaggerated, respondents may not answer honestly, and response 

biases could affect results. AmeriCorps programs should—where possible—leverage 

data from third-party sources either to provide data for their program evaluation or to 

corroborate findings from self-reported data. For example, if employment and earnings 

outcomes are of interest, unemployment insurance data—which are submitted by 

employers—could be used to verify members’ wages or employment status postservice. Additionally, if degree completion data are of interest, such as in the case of 

this ROI analysis, data from the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) could be used to 

verify what portion of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members pursued higher education 

and which degrees were completed post-program with the help of the education 

award. Were degree or employment outcomes data available from third-party data 

sources (like NSC), those data may make more precise ROI estimates possible. 

Recommendation 3: Quantify ripple effects. Earnings impacts on program participants 

and AmeriCorps members likely have positive benefits for those individuals’ families and 

surrounding communities. Rigorous research on those potential ripple effects would 

enable AmeriCorps to capture a broader array of benefits of this and other programs, 

which would be expected to result in an increased ROI. Specifically, the longitudinal 

impacts on program participants could be collected alongside the ripple effects their 

outcomes have on their families and communities to determine how long these indirect 
Return on Investment Study: 

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25

impacts are sustained after program participation or completion. For instance, studying 

how program participation impacts parents’ employment status, educational 

attainment, substance or alcohol use, as well as mental and physical health would 

result in a more comprehensive ROI estimate. 

Conclusion 

The program produces strong returns for the medium- and long-term scenarios as 

indicated by the results of all three ROI calculations for these two scenarios. In the 

short-term scenario—which only includes benefits for 1 year post-program—the ROI 

results indicate that there is a short-term loss on funding invested in the program.
Return on Investment Study: 

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Appendix A: Program Benefits, Forgone Benefits, and Program Costs Included in 

Return on Investment Calculations 

In Table 10, the three columns on the right indicate by an “X” if the program benefits, forgone benefits (opportunity cost), 

or program cost is included in the numerator or denominator of a return on investment (ROI) calculation.

Table 10. Benefits and Costs Included in the Breakthrough Central Texas ROI Calculation

Benefit or cost

Total benefits per 

federal dollar

Total benefits per 

funder dollar 

Federal 

government 

benefits per 

federal dollar

Benefits Stakeholder group Data sources X indicates inclusion in the ROI numerator

Increased lifetime 

earnings of program 

participants due to 

their increased 

educational 

attainment 

Breakthrough

participants 

• Breakthrough 

Central Texas

• Hutson and 

Lamb (2020)

• Trostel (2015)

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2019-a) 

X X 

Increased lifetime

income tax revenue 

due to increased 

educational 

attainment of 

program participants

Federal government • Breakthrough 

Central Texas

• Hutson and 

Lamb (2020)

• Trostel (2015)

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2019-a) 

X X X 
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Benefit or cost

Total benefits per 

federal dollar

Total benefits per 

funder dollar 

Federal 

government 

benefits per 

federal dollar

Benefits Stakeholder group Data sources X indicates inclusion in the ROI numerator

Increased lifetime 

Social Security tax 

revenue due to 

increased 

educational 

attainment of 

program participants

Federal government • Breakthrough 

Central Texas

• Hutson and 

Lamb (2020)

• Trostel (2015)

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2019-a) 

X X X 

Increased lifetime 

sales tax revenue 

due to increased 

educational 

attainment of 

program participants

State and local 

governments

• Breakthrough 

Central Texas

• Hutson and 

Lamb (2020)

• Trostel (2015)

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2019-a) 

X X 

Savings in lifetime 

public assistance, 

corrections, and 

social insurance costs 

due to increased 

educational 

attainment of 

program participants

Federal government • Breakthrough 

Central Texas

• Hutson and 

Lamb (2020)

• Trostel (2015)

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2019-a) 

X X X
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Benefit or cost

Total benefits per 

federal dollar

Total benefits per 

funder dollar 

Federal 

government 

benefits per 

federal dollar

Benefits Stakeholder group Data sources X indicates inclusion in the ROI numerator

Increased earnings of 

national service 

members due to 

increased 

employment and 

education of 

AmeriCorps members

AmeriCorps members • Breakthrough 

Central Texas

• Friedman et al. 

(2016) 

• U.S. Census 

Bureau (2019-a) 

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2019-a) 

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2019-b) 

X X 

Increased income 

tax revenue due to 

increased earnings of 

AmeriCorps members

Federal and state 

governments

• Friedman et al. 

(2016)

• U.S. Census 

Bureau (2019-a) 

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2019-a) 

• Tax rate data on 

Bankrate.com 

and Loughead

(Tax Foundation, 

2020)

X X X
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Benefit or cost

Total benefits per 

federal dollar

Total benefits per 

funder dollar 

Federal 

government 

benefits per 

federal dollar

Benefits Stakeholder group Data sources X indicates inclusion in the ROI numerator

Increased Social 

Security and 

Medicare tax 

revenue due to 

increased earnings of 

AmeriCorps members

Federal government • Friedman et al. 

(2016)

• U.S. Census 

Bureau (2019-a) 

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2019-a) 

• Social Security 

Administration 

(2020)

X X X 

Increased sales tax 

revenue due to 

increased earnings of 

AmeriCorps members

State and local 

governments

• Friedman et al. 

(2016)

• U.S. Census 

Bureau (2019-a) 

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2019-a) 

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2021)

• Loughead (Tax 

Foundation, 

2020)

X X 

AmeriCorps member 

living allowances and 

education awards

AmeriCorps members • Breakthrough 

Central Texas X X 
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Benefit or cost

Total benefits per 

federal dollar

Total benefits per 

funder dollar 

Federal 

government 

benefits per 

federal dollar

Benefits Stakeholder group Data sources X indicates inclusion in the ROI numerator

Reduced spending 

on lifetime public 

assistance, 

corrections, and 

social insurance due 

to increased 

educational 

attainment of 

AmeriCorps members

Federal, state, and 

local governments 

• Trostel (2015)

• Zeidenberg et al. 

(2016)

• U.S. Census 

Bureau (2019-a) X X X

Forgone benefits 

(opportunity costs) Payer Data Source X indicates inclusion in the ROI denominator

Opportunity costs of 

forgone market 

wages for 

AmeriCorps members

AmeriCorps members 

• Breakthrough 

Central Texas

• U.S. Census 

Bureau (2019-a) 

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics

(2019-b) 

X X X
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Benefit or cost

Total benefits per 

federal dollar

Total benefits per 

funder dollar 

Federal 

government 

benefits per 

federal dollar

Benefits Stakeholder group Data sources X indicates inclusion in the ROI numerator

Opportunity costs of 

federal taxes on 

forgone market 

wages for 

AmeriCorps members 

(e.g., federal income 

and Social Security 

taxes)

Federal government • Breakthrough 

Central Texas

• U.S. Census 

Bureau (2019-a) 

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2019-a) 

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics

(2019-b) 

• Tax rate data on 

Bankrate.com 

and Loughead

(Tax Foundation, 

2020)

• Social Security 

Administration 

(2020)

X X X
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Benefit or cost

Total benefits per 

federal dollar

Total benefits per 

funder dollar 

Federal 

government 

benefits per 

federal dollar

Benefits Stakeholder group Data sources X indicates inclusion in the ROI numerator

Opportunity costs of 

state and local taxes 

on forgone market 

wages for 

AmeriCorps members 

(e.g., state income 

and state/local sales 

taxes)

State and local 

governments 

• Breakthrough 

Central Texas

• U.S. Census 

Bureau (2019-a) 

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2019-a) 

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics

(2019-b) 

• U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics 

(2021)

• Loughead (Tax 

Foundation, 

2020)

X X X

Opportunity costs of 

federal funders

Federal government • AmeriCorps

• U.S. Department

of the Treasury 

(2019)

X X X 

Opportunity costs of 

program funders

Non-government 

funders

• Breakthrough 

Central Texas

• U.S. Department

of the Treasury 

(2019)

X 
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Benefit or cost

Total benefits per 

federal dollar

Total benefits per 

funder dollar 

Federal 

government 

benefits per 

federal dollar

Benefits Stakeholder group Data sources X indicates inclusion in the ROI numerator

AmeriCorps grant 

costs (excluding 

living allowances and 

education awards 

provided to 

AmeriCorps 

members)

Federal government 

(AmeriCorps)

• AmeriCorps

X X X

AmeriCorps member 

living allowances and 

education awards

Federal government 

(AmeriCorps)

• AmeriCorps

X X X

Breakthrough Central 

Texas costs

Breakthrough Central 

Texas

• Breakthrough 

Central Texas X

Other federal 

government funding

(not provided by 

AmeriCorps)

Federal government • Breakthrough 

Central Texas X X

State and local 

government funding

State and local 

government

• Breakthrough 

Central Texas X

Other nongovernment costsNon-government 

funders

• Breakthrough 

Central Texas X
Return on Investment Study: 

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Appendix B: Additional Information on the Methodology 

This appendix provides additional details on the methodology used for this study, as a 

supplement to the methodology section in the main report. It describes the steps used 

to calculate the return on investment (ROI), the results of interim calculations that 

contribute to the ROI calculations, and assumptions that underlie the analysis. 

Methodology Overview 

Calculating the ROI for the Breakthrough Central Texas program included the following 

steps: 

• Measuring and monetizing program benefits to Breakthrough program 

participants, Breakthrough AmeriCorps members, and the different levels of 

government 

• Estimating forgone benefits (opportunity costs) 

• Assessing program costs 

• Calculating the ROI 

This ROI analysis included only those benefits that could be reasonably monetized given 

the available data and that likely would not have occurred without Breakthrough 

Central Texas’s Austin program. 

Although Breakthrough AmeriCorps members experience positive benefits from the 

Breakthrough Central Texas program in terms of increased employment and earnings 

(described below), available data do not establish how long these specific impacts are 

sustained over time. To address a range of possible durations for those benefits, three 

scenarios were developed for this ROI study: 

• Short-term. This scenario assumes short-term earnings impacts. The assumption is 

that earnings impacts are limited to a single year after program exit. This scenario 

also assumes no lifetime benefits are realized. 

• Medium-term. This scenario assumes a longer duration of earnings impacts. 

The assumption is that earnings impacts last 15 years. A 3 percent discount rate is 

applied each year to represent net present value in 2021 dollars.15 This scenario 

also assumes only half of the net present value of lifetime benefits is realized. 

• Long-term. This scenario assumes sustained earnings impacts throughout 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ working years. The assumption is that 

earnings impacts last 30 years. A 3 percent discount rate is applied each year to 

represent net present value in 2021 dollars. This scenario also assumes the entire 

net present value of lifetime benefits is realized. 

15 The Office of Management and Budget (1992) defines a discount rate as, “The interest rate used in 

calculating the present value of expected yearly benefits and costs” (p. 18). Regarding the 3 percent

discount rate, see Office of Management and Budget (2003).
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There are some differences between the three scenarios. One is the length of time that 

increased employment—and earnings associated with that employment—are 

sustained. The other is what portion of lifetime benefits, when applicable, are realized.16

For each ROI calculation, three estimates using the three scenarios were developed, 

which is shown in greater detail in the Calculating ROI section. 

Measuring Program Benefits 

The first step in calculating the ROI for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program is to 

measure and monetize the program benefits. Breakthrough program participants,

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members, and various levels of government benefit from 

Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program. These benefits were identified through an 

extensive literature review and data collection process. The methods used to measure 

benefits for each of these stakeholder groups are described below. 

Benefits to the Breakthrough Program Participants 

Two evaluations, Malerba and Caplovitz (2012) and Hutson and Lamb (2020), measured 

the impact of Breakthrough Central Texas on middle school students. These evaluations 

both used propensity score matching. The objective of these two studies was to 

determine the impact of Breakthrough Central Texas on high school and college 

graduation rates. Malerba and Caplovitz evaluated 1,086 students to estimate the 

increased likelihood of high school graduation, and Hutson and Lamb evaluated 

290 students to estimate the likelihood of college graduation. 

Malerba and Caplovitz (2012) found a 10 percent increase in likelihood of high school

graduation. Applying these findings to Breakthrough Central Texas’s 281 middle school 

students in the 2018–2019 academic year, the analysis estimated that 28 (281 x 10%) 

middle schoolers who are enrolled in Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program will

no longer drop out of high school. The estimated 28 middle school students were then 

demographically weighted based on Breakthrough program participant 

demographics, which can be seen in Table 11. To estimate the additional annual 

earnings attributable to increased high school graduation levels due to Breakthrough 

Central Texas, the estimated numbers of additional graduates by demographic 

category are multiplied by the estimated additional annual earnings. 

16 These three scenarios consider varying durations of how long increased employment and earnings 

benefits last for Breakthrough AmeriCorps members. They also consider varying durations for lifetime 

benefits that stem from the Breakthrough program. For example, lifetime benefits in terms of decreased 

public assistance, social insurance, and corrections costs result from Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ 

higher educational attainment post-service. The analysis estimates lifetime benefits differently in the three 

scenarios. Specifically, the net present value of the entire lifetime benefit is realized for the long-term 

scenario, half of the net present value of the lifetime benefit is realized for the medium-term scenario, 

and no lifetime benefit amount is realized for the short-term scenario.
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Table 11. Additional High School Graduates and Expected Median Annual Additional 

Earnings (2021$)

Breakthrough 

middle school 

participants

Additional high 

school graduates

Annual 

additional earnings

Total annual 

additional earnings

Race/ethnicity Male Female Male Female Male Female

White 0 0 $13,100 $10,476 $1,353 $1,082 

Black 2 2 $6,435 $6,635 $9,971 $15,765

Hispanic 12 12 $8,827 $7,748 $98,492 $90,447

Asian 0 0 $13,173 $17,000 $4,959 $3,681

Multiracial 0 0 $10,222 $9,728 $2,112 $1,005 

Total 14 14 N/A N/A $225,981

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. 

Sources: Malerba and Caplovitz (2012) and U.S. Census Bureau (2019-c) 

Hutson and Lamb (2020) found a seven percentage point increase in bachelor degree 

graduation rate for Breakthrough participants as compared to a matched group of 

non-participants. All Breakthrough students are first-generation college students, but the 

control group consists of both first-generation and non-first generation college students. 

DeAngelo et al. (2011) found that first-generation college students had a 50 percent 

graduation rate, while the overall college graduation rate was 61 percent. Because the 

2020 evaluation did not control for first-generation college status, the analysis adjusted 

the finding by 11 percentage points. The expected differential between first-generation 

Breakthrough participants and non-participants is 18 percent. 

Applying these findings to Breakthrough Central Texas’s 281 middle school students in 

Austin in the 2018–2019 academic year, this analysis estimated that 51 (281 x 18%) 

middle school students in the Breakthrough Central Texas program are less likely to drop 

out of college. 
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Table 12. Additional Bachelor’s Degree Graduates and Expected Median Annual 

Additional Earnings (2021$)

Breakthrough 

middle school 

participants

Additional 

bachelor’s degree 

graduates

Annual 

additional earnings

Total annual 

additional earnings

Race/Ethnicity Male Female Male Female Male Female

White 0 0 $13,100 $10,476 $2,962 $3,291

Black 3 4 $6,435 $6,635 $15,780 $39,690

Hispanic 20 21 $8,827 $7,748 $170,556 $199,534

Asian 1 1 $13,173 $17,000 $37,623 $6,807

Multiracial 0 0 $10,222 $9,728 $1,778 $1,992

Total 24 27 N/A N/A $480,013

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. 

Sources: Hutson and Lamb (2020), DeAngelo et al. (2011), and U.S. Census Bureau (2019-c) 

Table 13 shows the gross earnings of the Breakthrough middle school participants for 

the three scenarios, discounted at a 3 percent rate.17 Along with the earnings, Table 12

also shows the lifetime reduction in public assistance payments received due to 

Breakthrough middle school participants’ reduced likelihood of dropping out of high 

school and bachelor’s degree programs (Levin et al., 2007; Trostel et al., 2015). In other 

words, it shows the reduced spending on public assistance, social insurance, and 

criminal justice costs for Breakthrough Austin participants due to their increased 

educational attainment. These are also discounted at 3 percent. 

Table 13. Additional Earnings for Breakthrough Participants and Resulting Public Benefits 

by Scenario (2021$)

Scenario

Gross additional 

earnings of 

participants

Reduced 

government 

spending

Payroll tax 

payments*

Estimated 

additional sales 

tax revenue

Short-term N/A N/A N/A N/A 

Medium-term $3,495,713 $894,018 $686,908 $107,595

Long-term $6,606,667 $1,545,970 $1,298,210 $198,013

*Summed federal and state income, Medicare, and Social Security taxes based on gross earnings of 

Breakthrough participants 

17 The guidance to use a 3 percent discount rate can be seen in Office of Management and Budget 

(2003).
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This analysis also calculated federal income, Medicare, and Social Security taxes on the 

additional income.18 Texas does not have a state income tax (Loughead, Tax 

Foundation, 2020). The summation of these taxes for each of the three scenarios is 

shown in Table 12. Subtracting those taxes from the gross additional income resulting 

from increased educational attainment for Breakthrough participants yields post-tax 

income. From this, sales tax revenue to the state of Texas (and local governments in 

Texas) is estimated, assuming Breakthrough participants stay in Texas after graduation. 

These estimates are presented across the three scenarios. Note that because the 

participants are in middle school, they would not begin to earn income until after high 

school graduation (4 and 5 years later for 8th and 7th graders) and college graduation 

(8 and 9 years later for 8th and 7th graders). No additional earnings and benefits are 

estimated for the short-term scenario. For the medium term scenario, 10 and 11 years of 

high school–related attainment benefits are calculated for 7th and 8th graders, 

respectively. Additionally, 6 and 7 years of college-related attainment benefits are 

calculated for 7th and 8th graders. For the long-term scenario, 7th graders have 

25 years of high school graduation–related benefits and 21 years of college 

graduation–related benefits, while 8th graders have 26 years of high school 

graduation–related benefits and 22 years of college graduation–related benefits. 

Benefits to Breakthrough AmeriCorps Members 

The Breakthrough AmeriCorps members who provide services as part of the 

Breakthrough program experience benefits due to their national service. This analysis 

estimated the following benefits: 

• Living allowance and education award

• Increased earnings due to reduced unemployment

• Increased lifetime earnings due to increased postsecondary education derived 

from the use of education awards

Living Allowance and Education Award

Living allowances are given to AmeriCorps members during their 1-year service term to 

pay for various living expenses—such as housing and groceries—and they sometimes 

include members’ workers’ compensation and health insurance when applicable. 

Regarding education awards, according to Friedman et al. (2016), a significant portion 

(i.e., 46 percent) of AmeriCorps State and National member alumni use them to pay for 

additional postsecondary education at colleges, graduate schools, and 

technical/vocational schools, while others (i.e., 33 percent) use them to pay off 

outstanding student loans. The remaining 21 percent do not use their education 

awards. 

18 For the additional high school and college graduates, the analysis assumes a federal marginal income 

tax rate (12 percent), a Medicare tax rate (1.45 percent), and a Social Security tax rate (6.20 percent). 

The assumed Texas sales tax, state and local, is 8.19 percent.
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Both the living allowances and education awards (considered one-time benefits that 

are not discounted or spread over time) are taxable and represent member benefits. 

However, only the portion of education awards used by members to pay off existing 

student loans is considered a direct member benefit. The portion that is utilized to 

pursue further postsecondary education is only used in calculating members’ additional 

lifetime earnings due to the increased educational attainment they experience 

post-service from using the education award. This is done to avoid double counting. 

This analysis included the post-tax values of the living allowance and the portion of the 

education award used to repay student loans as Breakthrough AmeriCorps member 

benefits, which are listed in Table 14. The portion of the education award used to fund 

additional postsecondary education is discussed in the following section.

Table 14. Breakthrough AmeriCorps Member Benefits From the Living Allowance and 

Education Award

Benefit Post-tax value (2021$) Notes

Living allowance $96,805 Post-tax living allowances members 

receive during service

Education award used to 

pay off student loans $16,081 Post-tax education award amount used to pay off outstanding student loans

Total $112,886

Sources: Breakthrough Central Texas and Friedman et al. (2016)

Increased Earnings Due to Reduced Unemployment 

According to Friedman et al. (2016), the percentage of AmeriCorps members 

unemployed was 5 percentage points lower 6 months after serving in AmeriCorps 

compared to 6 months before serving. The study did not provide actual employment 

rates for AmeriCorps members pre- and post-service, but instead provided the 

unemployment rates shown in Figure 4 (17 percent vs. 12 percent) in which the change

between them represents a 5-percentage-point decrease. 
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Figure 4. Unemployment Status Results From Friedman et al. (2016)19

Source: Friedman et al. (2016)

A direct member benefit from being employed post-service is additional income 

earned. To monetize this 5-percentage-point decrease in unemployment, ICF 

requested that Breakthrough Austin provide the gender, age, pre-service educational 

attainment, and race/ethnicity distribution of AmeriCorps members who served with 

Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program for the most recent program year. 

Based on those demographics, the analysis used annual average earnings data from 

the Current Population Survey’s Annual Social and Economic (ASEC) Supplement for 

March 2019 to estimate Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ additional earnings due to 

the reduced unemployment (U.S. Census Bureau, 2019-b). 

Specifically, the analysis used ASEC data to calculate the per-person pre-tax average 

annual earnings for 18- to 34-year-olds weighted by the demographic distribution of 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members who served during the 2019–2020 program year. 

This value expressed in 2021 dollars was $26,392 as shown in Table 15. The analysis then 

multiplied the 5-percentage-point decrease in unemployment from Friedman et al. 

(2016) by the number of Breakthrough AmeriCorps member full-time equivalents (FTEs) 

who served during the most recent program year (i.e., 9). This estimated the number of 

additional Breakthrough AmeriCorps member FTEs employed due to national service

(i.e., 0.5). To estimate the additional pre-tax earnings that stemmed from the reduced 

unemployment, the $26,392 annual earnings amount was multiplied by the additional 

number of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members employed post-service. This represents 

the additional income earned by Breakthrough AmeriCorps members due to serving 

with Breakthrough Central Texas. 

19 “Currently” refers to the summer 2016 survey. Respondents were from the 2005, 2010, and 2013 

AmeriCorps cohorts, so respondents varied in how much time had elapsed since their AmeriCorps service.

 
Return on Investment Study: 

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Table 15. Additional Pre-Tax Earnings for Breakthrough AmeriCorps Members From 

Reduced Unemployment Based on Breakthrough AmeriCorps Member Demographics

Metric

Value 

(2021$)*

Average per-person pre-tax annual earnings of employed 18- to 34-year-olds 

weighted by Breakthrough AmeriCorps member demographics (e.g., gender, 

race/ethnicity, and pre-service education level)

$26,392

Reduction in AmeriCorps members’ unemployment 5%

Total expected increase in earnings, per member $1,316

Breakthrough AmeriCorps member FTEs 9 

Cumulative additional pre-tax earnings $12,286

Cumulative additional post-tax earnings $8,756

*This value is undiscounted; thus, the values do not sum in the table. 

Source: Breakthrough Central Texas (2022), Friedman et al. (2016), and U.S. Census Bureau (2019-b)

To avoid double counting, the additional post-tax earnings is used to calculate the 

direct benefit to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members, rather than the additional pre-tax

earnings. The post-tax annual earnings for the additional Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

member FTEs employed in Table 16 excludes payroll taxes (e.g., federal and state 

income, Social Security, and Medicare). The payroll tax rates used are described in 

more detail in the Benefits to Government section. 

Based on these calculations, the cumulative additional post-tax earnings for 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members for the three different scenarios—discounted in 

2021 dollars using data from the Office of Management and Budget (2003)—are shown 

in Table 16. These monetary amounts represent the additional post-tax earnings realized 

due to the employment gain that is solely attributed to the Breakthrough Central Texas

program. 

Table 16. Cumulative Additional Post-Tax Earnings Derived From Reduced 

Unemployment Due to Serving With the Breakthrough Program by Scenario

Scenario

Cumulative additional post-tax earnings 

due to serving with the Breakthrough program (2021$)

Short-term $8,756

Medium-term $86,829 

Long-term $111,464

Sources: Breakthrough Central Texas, Friedman et al. (2016), U.S. Census Bureau (2019-b), and Office 

of Management and Budget (2003)
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Increased Lifetime Earnings Due to Increased Postsecondary Education Derived 

From the Use of Education Awards

The AmeriCorps education award pays 

for some portion of members’ increased 

postsecondary educational attainment, 

and the future earnings derived from that 

educational attainment are treated as a 

direct benefit to Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members. To calculate the 

portion of members’ increased 

educational attainment that is 

attributable to Breakthrough Central 

Texas’s Austin program, this analysis used

cost data from the National Center for 

Education Statistics (NCES). Table 17

details the average total cost for each 

degree type and the portion of the cost 

that the post-tax education award 

amount (i.e., $5,234) represents ($6,155

before taxes20). The analysis used these 

percentages to estimate the lifetime 

benefits of postsecondary educational 

attainment that can be attributed to the 

education award. For instance, 

according to NCES (2020), the average 

annual cost of a public, in-state, 4-year 

academic institution during the 2019 to 2020 academic year was $24,869. This amounts 

to more than $100,000 for 4 years if expressed in 2019 dollars. The $5,234 post-tax 

education award only represents 4.8 percent of the cost of that degree, so the 

Breakthrough Central Texas program could only be credited with 5 percent of the 

completion of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ bachelor’s degrees post-service. 

20 This analysis used the 2020 to 2021 AmeriCorps education award amount ($6,345) but discounted it to net 

present 2020 dollars using the Consumer Price Index. For more information about this education award, 

please see https://americorps.gov/members-volunteers/segal-americorps-education-award/find-out-more. 

Additional earnings derived from 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ 

reduced unemployment were 

calculated annually and then 

discounted based on the short-term, 

medium-term, and long-term scenarios 

in net present 2019 dollars. 

For additional earnings derived from 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ 

increased postsecondary educational 

attainment—due to using education 

awards—Trostel (2015) did not provide 

data on how earnings accrue over 

time. Therefore, this analysis treated 

the increases in earnings as lifetime 

values expressed in 2019 dollars. The 

analysis assumed 100 percent of those 

lifetime earnings accrued by year 30 

(i.e., in the long-term scenario), 50 

percent accrued by year 15 (i.e., in 

the medium-term scenario), and 

nothing accrued 1 year post-program 

(i.e., in the short-term scenario). 
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Table 17. Average Total Cost of Education and Portion Attributable to Education Award 

by Degree Type

Degree type21 Average cost (2019$)*

Percentage of degree total cost 

covered by post-tax education award

Associate degree $30,824 15.8% 

Bachelor’s degree $101,948 4.8% 

Graduate degree $24,342 20.0% 

*Costs were provided for the 2019 to 2020 academic year by NCES (2020) for associate degree and 

bachelor’s degree types. Costs were provided for the 2018 to 2019 academic year by NCES (2019) 

for graduate degree type. 

Sources: AmeriCorps (n.d.), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2019-a), NCES (2019), and NCES (2020) 

To determine the future lifetime earnings realized due to the use of the education 

award post-service (and, later, the associated lifetime taxes, which are described in the 

Benefits to Government section), the analysis first determined the number of additional 

postsecondary degrees estimated to be completed by degree type. The 22

Breakthrough AmeriCorps member FTEs who served during the 2019–2020 program year 

were distributed by the education award use findings listed in Friedman et al. (2016) 

across the degree types. Specifically, Friedman et al. (2016) reported 46 percent of 

AmeriCorps State and National member alumni used their education award to pursue 

postsecondary degrees after program completion. This makes the number of 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps member FTEs expected to use the education award to 

pursue additional postsecondary education roughly equal to 10. Specifically, Friedman 

et al. (2016) indicated that the 46 percent comprises 2 percent using the education 

award to attend a technical or vocational training program, 21 percent using it to 

obtain a bachelor’s degree, and 23 percent using it for graduate school.22 This results in 

the number of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members estimated to pursue—due to using 

the education award—an associate degree, a bachelor’s degree, or a graduate 

degree post-service to be roughly 1, 8, and 9, respectively. These values are shown in

Table 18. 

21 Costs for an associate degree include tuition, required fees, books, and supplies for a public, in-state, 

2-year program; costs for a bachelor’s degree include tuition, required fees, books, supplies, and 

on-campus housing for a public, in-state, 4-year program; costs for a graduate degree include tuition and 

required fees for a public, in-state, 2-year graduate program. 

22 This analysis considers the use of the education award to attend a technical or vocational training 

program from Friedman et al. (2016) to be synonymous with using it to pursue an associate degree.
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Table 18. Estimates of the Number of Postsecondary Degrees Pursued Using the 

Education Award by Degree Type

Degree type

Total Breakthrough 

Austin AmeriCorps 

member FTE count

Percentage estimated to 

pursue postsecondary 

education according to 

Friedman et al. (2016)

Number of 

degrees pursued 

using the

education award

Associate degree 9 2% 0.1 

Bachelor’s degree 9 21% 2.0

Graduate degree 9 23% 2.1

All degrees — 46% 4.2 

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. 

Sources: AmeriCorps (n.d.), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2019-a), Breakthrough Central Texas, Friedman et 

al. (2016), NCES (2020), and NCES (2019)

Next, the difference in the additional lifetime pre-tax earnings from one degree type to 

the subsequent degree type was estimated using data provided by Trostel (2015), 

which is shown in the fifth column of Table 19 and expressed in 2019 dollars.23 For 

instance, using Trostel (2015) data, the lifetime earnings in 2019 dollars of someone with 

an associate degree is about $875,000, while that of someone with a bachelor’s degree 

is almost $1.3 million. The difference between these two metrics (roughly $417,000 as 

show in Table 19) represents the additional lifetime earnings realized as a result of 

gaining a bachelor’s degree if an associate degree was already completed. This 

process was completed for all postsecondary degree types to conservatively estimate 

the additional lifetime earnings realized by Breakthrough AmeriCorps members due to 

an increase in postsecondary educational attainment. Trostel (2015) also included data 

on lifetime taxes paid, which was converted to 2019 dollars and then used to estimate 

the post-tax lifetime earnings that would be realized per additional postsecondary 

degree received. Specifically, the lifetime taxes paid amounts were subtracted from 

the pre-tax additional lifetime earnings amounts to estimate the additional post-tax 

lifetime earnings, a direct benefit to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members. 

23 For an associate degree, comparisons were made between metrics for a high school diploma and those 

for an associate degree. For a bachelor’s degree, comparisons made were between metrics for an 

associate degree and those of a bachelor’s degree. For a graduate degree, comparisons made were 

between metrics for a bachelor’s degree and those of a master’s degree. 
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Table 19. Additional Earnings From AmeriCorps Members’ Use of the Education Award

Degree 

type

Number of 

degrees 

pursued 

using the

education 

award

Percentage

of degree 

total cost 

covered by 

post-tax 

education 

award

Number 

of 

degrees 

obtained 

using the

education 

award

Additional 

pre-tax 

lifetime 

earnings

per 

degree 

type 

Additional 

lifetime 

taxes 

paid per 

degree 

type 

Additional 

post-tax 

lifetime 

earnings

per 

degree 

type 

Total 

post-tax 

lifetime 

earnings 

using the

education 

award

Associate 

degree

0.1 16.1% 0.0 $170,286 $83,656 $86,630 $5,010

Bachelor’s 

degree

2.0 4.9% 0.1 $526,201 $242,385 $283,816 $49,382

Graduate 

degree

2.1 20.4% 0.4 $467,083 $176,604 $290,479 $200,038

Total 4.2 — 0.5 — — — $254,430

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. 

Sources: AmeriCorps (n.d.), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2019-a), Breakthrough Central Texas, Friedman et 

al. (2016), NCES (2020), NCES (2019), and Trostel (2015)

To isolate the increase in additional lifetime earnings specific to members using the 

education award, the number of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members who used the 

education award for this purpose by degree type was reduced by the percentage of 

the degree cost that can be covered by the $5,234 post-tax education award 

received post-service, displayed in the third column of Table 19. As a result, the analysis 

estimated that the use of the education award among Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members produced roughly 0.1 additional associate degree, 0.1 additional bachelor’s 

degree, and 0.5 additional graduate degree post-service. Then, the number of 

additional degrees obtained was applied to the 2019 additional post-tax lifetime 

earnings by degree type. This calculates the additional lifetime post-tax earnings 

realized by Breakthrough AmeriCorps members from their increase in post-secondary 

educational attainment that is credited to the use of the education award post-service. 

The total additional lifetime post-tax earnings amount was roughly $254,000 across 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members. Of note, these lifetime earnings are in addition to 

the earnings derived from Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ gains in employment as 

delineated in the previous section. To reiterate, the earnings from Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members’ reduced unemployment differs depending on the scenario (i.e., 

short-term, medium-term, and long-term) since it is uncertain how long these earnings 

will persist. For the post-tax lifetime earnings—and all lifetime benefits in this ROI 

analysis—the entire amount is realized in the long-term, half of it is realized in the 

medium-term, and no amount is realized in the short-term. 
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Benefits to Government 

State and Local Government 

State and local governments benefit 

from: 

• Additional state income tax 

revenue from Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members’ increased 

earnings due to reduced 

unemployment

• Additional lifetime state and 

local taxes due to Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members’ increased 

postsecondary educational 

attainment24

• Additional lifetime state and 

local taxes due to Breakthrough 

program participants’ increased 

educational attainment25

• Additional state and local taxes 

from the living allowance and 

education award received by 

these members

• Additional state and local sales 

tax revenue from Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members’ increased 

consumption due to reduced 

unemployment

• Reduced lifetime spending on 

public assistance, social 

insurance, and corrections26 

due to Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members’ increased postsecondary educational attainment

24 This benefit was calculated using lifetime tax revenue data from Trostel (2015). These values summed 

lifetime state income taxes, lifetime property taxes, and lifetime sales taxes by education level. 

25 This benefit was calculated using lifetime tax revenue data from Levin (2007) for high school graduation 

by race and gender and Trostel (2015) for postsecondary education.

26 Reduced spending on public assistance due to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ increased 

postsecondary educational attainment is included as a federal government benefit, not a state and local 

government benefit. This is because public assistance includes programs funded at the federal level 

(e.g., TANF, etc.).

Additional tax revenue derived from 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ 

reduced unemployment, living 

allowances, and education awards was 

calculated using tax rates specific to 

each per-person monetary amount. 

For additional tax revenue derived from 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ 

increased postsecondary educational 

attainment—due to using education 

awards—Trostel (2015) did not provide 

specific tax rates. Therefore, this analysis 

treated the increases in tax revenue as 

lifetime values expressed in 2021 dollars. 

The analysis assumed 100 percent of 

those lifetime tax revenues accrued by 

year 30 (i.e., in the long-term scenario), 

50 percent accrued by year 15 (i.e., in 

the medium-term scenario), and nothing 

accrued 1 year post-program (i.e., in the 

short-term scenario).

Tax revenue derived from Breakthrough 

participants’ increased educational 

attainment assumes a federal marginal 

income tax rate of 12 percent, the state 

income tax rate for Texas (0 percent), 

the Medicare tax rate (1.45 percent), 

and Social Security (6.2 percent). The 

assumed Texas sales tax, state and local, 

is 8.19 percent. The analysis applied 

these tax rates to the estimated earnings 

in each scenario.
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• Reduced lifetime spending on public assistance, social insurance, and 

corrections27 due to Breakthrough participants’ increased educational 

attainment 

State income tax revenue: To measure income tax revenue generation that stems from 

reduced unemployment for state governments (any local income taxes are not 

included), the additional pre-tax earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members that 

are solely attributed to Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program are taxed by a 

weighted, estimated proportional state income tax rate. This tax rate considers statespecific progressive tax brackets and standard deduction amounts. Based on the 

taxable income, the analysis estimated the proportional state income tax for each 

state as the amount of state income taxes paid per Breakthrough AmeriCorps member 

divided by their pre-tax earnings. This analysis then calculated the weighted average of 

these state-specific tax rates—using these states’ populations from the 5-year estimates 

of the 2019 American Community Survey (U.S. Census Bureau, 2019-a)—to estimate a 

weighted national tax rate (i.e., 2.8 percent). A weighted national tax rate was used 

because Breakthrough AmeriCorps members may disperse to various locations 

nationwide following their service terms and continue to migrate over the course of 

their working years.

Lifetime state income tax revenue values are also provided by Trostel (2015) by 

education level. Based on the number of postsecondary degrees estimated to be 

obtained due to the use of the education award received after serving with 

Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program, additional lifetime state income taxes are 

realized. Thus, the additional lifetime state income taxes’ paid values—informed by 

data from Trostel (2015)—were first converted to 2021 dollars. The analysis then 

multiplied them by the inferred number of degrees obtained using the education 

award (which are listed in the fourth column of Table 18). 

State governments also receive state income taxes from the education awards that 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members receive post-service. The analysis estimated the 

pre-tax education award amount in 2019 dollars (i.e., $6,155).28 Then the analysis 

multiplied it by the number of Breakthrough AmeriCorps member FTEs expected to 

redeem the award and use it to pursue postsecondary education or to repay 

outstanding student loans, based on findings from Friedman et al. (2016). The result 

represents the pre-tax cumulative education award amount expected to be received 

by Breakthrough AmeriCorps members. The portion of this value taxed by state income 

taxes was estimated using a weighted state income tax rate specific to the per-person 

education award amount. Additionally, state income taxes were estimated for the 

27 Reduced spending on public assistance due to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ increased postsecondary educational attainment is included as a federal government benefit, not a state and local 

government benefit. This is because public assistance includes programs funded at the federal level 

(e.g., TANF, etc.).

28 This analysis used the 2020 to 2021 AmeriCorps education award amount ($6,345) but discounted it to net

present 2020 dollars using the Consumer Price Index. For more information about this education award, 

please see https://americorps.gov/members-volunteers/segal-americorps-education-award/find-out-more. 
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living allowance amount received by Breakthrough AmeriCorps members during their 

service term using tax rates specific to the per-person value. The different rates used for 

these member benefits are enumerated in Table 21. 

Breakthrough program participants also generated additional income from increased 

education, but we assume participants will stay in Texas. Since Texas’s state income tax 

rate is 0 percent, program participants do not generate additional state income tax. 

State and local sales tax revenue: To measure sales tax revenue generation for state 

and local governments that stems from reduced unemployment, a weighted state and 

local sales tax rate was applied to the amount of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ 

cumulative additional post-tax earnings that are available to be spent on taxable 

goods. To establish a weighted state and local sales tax, this analysis first summed the 

state sales tax rate and the average local sales tax rate for each state using data from 

Cammenga (2020). Then using 2019 data from the American Community Survey (U.S. 

Census Bureau, 2019-a), these state-level combined state and local sales tax rates were 

weighted based on the population of each state. The resulting weighted average sales 

tax rate used in this analysis was 7.43 percent. 

To estimate the additional post-tax earnings as a result of reduced unemployment and 

program participation that was spent on taxable goods, data from the Consumer 

Expenditure Survey (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2021) were used. These data show 

the amount of spending on a number of different goods and services by national 

consumers across several different pre-tax income brackets.29 The proportion of 

earnings that is spent on taxable goods (such as alcoholic beverages, housekeeping 

supplies, apparel, etc.) was then calculated for consumers with incomes that matched 

the per-person average pre-tax earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members. This 

value was 44.9 percent. This proportion was then applied to Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members’ cumulative additional post-tax earnings to calculate the post-tax monetary 

amount they spend on taxable goods. Then the sales tax rate (i.e., 7.43 percent) was 

applied to estimate the resulting sales tax revenues that go to state and local 

governments due to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ reduced unemployment 

post-service. 

Trostel (2015) also provides additional lifetime state and local sales tax values by 

education level. Using these values, the analysis calculated the additional sales tax 

revenue realized by state and local governments as a result of Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members using their education award to achieve higher postsecondary 

educational attainment post-service. These values represent a direct benefit to state 

and local governments in the form of increased tax revenue. 

29 To calculate the estimated taxable expenditures, Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) Table 1203 was 

used from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2021). This table lists the annual expenditure means by pre-tax 

income tax brackets. Thus, the pre-tax earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members were used instead 

of their post-tax earnings to calculate this metric. Please visit this site for more details: 

https://www.bls.gov/cex/tables/calendar-year/mean-item-share-average-standard-error.htm#cu-income. 
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For Breakthrough program participants, the analysis estimated the number of additional 

graduates for each race, gender, and education level using Breakthrough Central 

Texas program data. The analysis then estimated increase in earnings for each group

pre- and post-income tax. The median income for each group was determined with 

2019’s Current Population Survey data (U.S. Census Bureau, 2019-c). With this, the 

proportion of earnings spent on taxable goods was calculated for each demographic 

group and applied to their post-tax earnings to calculate the amount they spend on 

taxable goods. Then the analysis applied the Texas state and local sales tax (8.19 

percent) to determine the increase in state and local sales tax attributable to 

additional program participant education.

State and local government cost savings: State and local governments also benefit 

from Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program through lifetime savings in public 

assistance, social insurance, and corrections—as reported in Trostel (2015) and Levin 

(2007)—due to the increase in Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ postsecondary 

educational attainment after program exit and increased educational attainment of 

Breakthrough program participants. Of note, social insurance includes unemployment 

insurance and workers’ compensation. To calculate these lifetime non-federal 

government savings, the analysis first calculated the decrease in public assistance, 

social insurance, and corrections costs (and thus, savings) from one education level to 

the subsequent education level using data from Trostel (2015) and then multiplied these 

monetary amounts by the number of additional postsecondary degrees estimated to 

be obtained due to the use of the education awards and program participation. Levin 

(2007) provides these cost savings for obtaining a high school diploma by race and 

gender demographic groups. The analysis applied these savings by estimated 

additional graduates by demographic group to obtain the state and local cost savings 

of additional high school graduates. 

To determine what portion of this differential represents lifetime cost savings to state or 

local governments versus the federal government, a different method was employed 

for each of these cost savings areas. For social insurance, 50 percent of lifetime 

unemployment insurance cost savings and all the lifetime cost savings for workers’ 

compensation are apportioned to state and local governments (Oswald, 2018). 

Regarding reductions in lifetime corrections spending, the portion between the federal 

and state or local governments was determined based on data from Hyland (2015). 

Specifically, this report found that 8.4 percent of U.S. corrections costs is paid by the 

federal government and the remaining 91.6 percent is paid by state and local 

governments. Therefore, almost 92 percent of the lifetime cost savings in corrections 

due to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members experiencing an increase in postsecondary 

educational attainment post-service are allocated to state and local governments. 
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Federal Government

The federal government benefits from: 

• Additional federal income, Social Security, and Medicare tax revenue from 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ increased earnings due to reduced 

unemployment

• Additional federal income, Social Security, and Medicare taxes from the living 

allowance and education award received by these members

• Additional lifetime federal taxes due to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’

increased postsecondary educational attainment

• Additional lifetime federal taxes due to Breakthrough program participants’ 

increased secondary and postsecondary educational attainment

• Reduced lifetime spending on public assistance, social insurance, 

and corrections due to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ increased 

postsecondary educational attainment

• Reduced lifetime spending on public assistance, social insurance, 

and corrections due to Breakthrough program participants’ increased 

educational attainment

Federal income tax revenue: To measure federal income tax revenue that stems from 

reduced unemployment, the additional pre-tax earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members that are solely attributed to the Breakthrough program—as well as the pre-tax 

living allowance and education award amounts received by Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members—are taxed by a federal income tax rate. The rates used are estimated 

proportional tax rates that consider the standard deductions and progressive tax 

brackets specific to federal income taxes as provided by El-Sibaie (2019). To reiterate, 

an estimated proportional tax rate equals the total amount of taxes estimated to be 

paid divided by the pre-tax amount of the value to be taxed (e.g., per-person average 

pre-tax earnings). The specific federal income tax rates used for these different benefits 

are enumerated in Table 21. Of note, different tax rates were used because they were 

specific to the per-person pre-tax earnings, living allowance, and education award 

amounts. 

For the additional lifetime earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members that is based 

on their increase in postsecondary educational attainment—made possible by the use 

of the education award—Trostel (2015) provides additional lifetime federal income tax

values. These values were used to calculate the additional income tax revenue realized 

by the federal government due to members’ postsecondary education gains.

For Breakthrough program participants, the analysis estimated the number of additional 

high school and bachelor’s degrees obtained for each race, gender, and grade level 

(7th and 8th graders). The analysis then estimated an increase in earnings for each 

group pre-income tax. Then, the analysis applied a marginal tax rate (12 percent) 

to determine the increase in federal income tax attributable to additional program 

participant education.
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Social Security and Medicare tax revenue: Social Security and Medicare tax revenue 

are measured as fiscal gains as a result of the additional pre-tax earnings of 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members from their reduced unemployment and as a result 

of the pre-tax living allowances and education awards amounts received by members. 

However, tax rates specific to each revenue source are used. Social Security and 

Medicare use flat tax rates, 6.2 percent and 1.45 percent, respectively; thus, these rates 

are applied to the additional pre-tax earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members to 

calculate the additional amount of revenue the federal government receives. These

same rates are also applied to the living allowance and education award amounts 

received by Breakthrough AmeriCorps members to calculate additional tax revenue. 

Moreover, lifetime Social Security tax values are provided by Trostel (2015) by education 

level. The analysis used these values to estimate the additional lifetime Social Security 

tax revenue realized by the federal government as a result of Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members using their education award to complete different postsecondary education 

degree types post-service. 

For Breakthrough program participants, the analysis estimated the number of additional 

high school and bachelor’s degrees obtained for each race, gender, and grade level 

(7th and 8th graders). The analysis then estimated an increase in earnings for each 

group pre-income tax. Then the analysis applied the Social Security and Medicare 

taxes (6.2 and 1.45 percent respectively) to determine the increase in federal income 

tax attributable to additional program participant education.

Federal government cost savings: The federal government realizes cost savings in public 

assistance, social insurance, and corrections due to the increased postsecondary 

educational attainment of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members after program exit. 

Specifically, the number of additional postsecondary degrees estimated to be earned 

by Breakthrough AmeriCorps members post-service as well as data from Trostel (2015) 

were used to estimate the federal government portion of lifetime cost savings on social 

insurance (which is composed of workers’ compensation and unemployment 

insurance, as noted earlier), public assistance (e.g., SNAP, Medicaid, TANF, etc.), 

and corrections. 

Table 20 shows the lifetime costs to the federal versus the state and local governments 

for each of these areas—where applicable—by education level in 2012 dollars as 

presented in Trostel (2015). The differences in these lifetime costs from one education 

level to the next represent cost savings per degree obtained. 
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Table 20. Government Costs by Education Attainment Level per Individual's Lifetime

Source of government 

cost

Associate degree 

(2012$)

Bachelor’s degree 

(2012$)

Graduate degree 

(2012$)

Public assistance $31,803 $14,480 $9,394

Social insurance $8,209 $5,863 $4,732

Federal $3,570 $2,660 $2,090

State/local $4,639 $3,204 $2,643

Corrections $4,055 $1,190 $725

Federal $341 $100 $61

State/local $3,714 $1,090 $664

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Source: Trostel (2015) 

As mentioned earlier in this appendix, as a result of Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin 

program, the analysis estimated an additional 7 Breakthrough AmeriCorps members 

would redeem the education award to pursue additional postsecondary education. 

Based on the portion of degree costs covered by the post-tax education award, this 

analysis calculated that an additional associate degree, bachelor’s degree, and 

graduate degree would be obtained due to Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin 

program. To conservatively calculate the federal government’s lifetime savings 

associated with these education gains, the differences between the public assistance, 

federal social insurance, and federal corrections lifetime costs for these education 

levels and those that precede them are calculated and then expressed in 2019 dollars. 

These values are then multiplied by the number of additional postsecondary degrees 

estimated to be obtained—where appropriate—to represent the total cost savings 

realized by the federal government due to Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin 

program. As previously mentioned where discussing the state and local governments’ 

allocation of the reduction in lifetime social insurance and corrections expenditures, 

the federal government receives 50 percent of the lifetime cost savings in 

unemployment insurance (part of social insurance; Oswald, 2018), and more than 

8 percent of the lifetime cost savings in corrections (Hyland, 2015). These federal 

government savings are shown in Table 22.

The federal government also realizes lifetime cost savings from Breakthrough Austin

program participants’ increased educational attainment. The methodology used to 

calculate these lifetime benefits is described in the previous State and Local 

Government section. Specifically, this analysis estimated that the federal government 

realizes $1,298,210 in lifetime cost savings, which are attributable to Breakthrough 

Central Texas’s Austin program. 
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Table 21 shows the tax rates applied to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ additional 

pre-tax and post-tax earnings (derived from reduced unemployment), depending on 

the type of revenue being calculated. It also enumerates the tax rates used for the 

pre-tax living allowance and education award amounts received by Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps members during their service term or upon service completion, 

respectively. 

Table 21. 2020 Tax Rates and Ratio of Taxable Expenditures for Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps Members’ Earnings, Living Allowances, and Education Awards

Metric

Rate for 

additional 

earnings & 

education 

award*

Rate for living 

allowance & 

education 

award** Notes

Estimated 

proportional

federal 

income tax 

7.28% 4.91% • Tax rates are used that consider the 

progressive tax brackets and standard 

deductions specific to federal income 

taxes. 

• These rates are dependent on and 

applied to the pre-tax value of each 

metric being taxed.

Estimated 

proportional 

state 

income tax 

2.82% 2.40% • Tax rates are used that consider the 

progressive tax brackets and standard 

deductions specific to each state’s 

income taxes. Each state’s tax rate is 

weighted based on the state’s 

population and summed to estimate a 

weighted national average. 

• These rates are dependent on and 

applied to the pre-tax value of each 

metric being taxed.

Social 

Security tax 

6.20% 6.20% • Social Security tax rate for employees 

and employers.

• These rates are applied to the pre-tax

value of each metric being taxed.

Medicare 

tax 

1.45% 1.45% • Medicare tax rate for employees and 

employers.

• These rates are applied to the pre-tax

value of each metric being taxed.
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Metric

Rate for 

additional 

earnings & 

education 

award*

Rate for living 

allowance & 

education 

award** Notes

Sales tax 7.43%; N/A to 

the 

education 

award

7.43%; N/A to the 

education award

• The combined state and average local 

tax rate for each state was summed 

and weighted based on states’ 

populations to calculate a national 

weighted average sales tax rate. 

• The rate is applied to the additional 

post-tax earnings of members as well 

as their post-tax living allowance 

amount.

Ratio of 

taxable 

expenditures 

per national

consumer

41.29%; N/A 

to the 

education 

award

57%; N/A to the 

education award

• Percentage of post-tax earnings spent 

on taxable goods and services that is 

used to calculate sales tax from posttax earnings.

• Ratio is dependent on the pre-tax 

value of members’ additional earnings

or the pre-tax living allowance amount.

*These rates are only used for the portion of the education award used to repay outstanding student loans. 

**These rates are only used for the portion of the education award used for additional schooling. 

Sources: Cammenga (2020), Social Security Administration (2020), Consumer Expenditures Survey (U.S. 

Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2021), and El-Sibaie (2019)

Summary of Benefits to Government

Table 22 shows the amount of tax revenue generated and savings in expenditures for 

state and local versus federal government that are solely credited to Breakthrough 

Central Texas’s Austin program and calculated using the methods described above. 

These government revenue and savings amounts are benefits that are included in the 

three ROI calculations, and they are derived from Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin 

program impacts.

Table 22. State/Local and Federal Government Benefits by Stakeholder Group and by 

Scenario

Benefit type

Benefit (2020$)

Short-term Medium-term Long-term

State/local government benefits $9,464 $474,307 $839,883 

State income tax revenue from education 

awards, living allowances,* and 

employment

 $318 $3,158 $4,054 

State and local sales tax revenue from 

living allowances and employment $9,145 $13,691 $15,635 
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Benefit type

Benefit (2020$)

Short-term Medium-term Long-term

State income, sales, and property taxes 

from AmeriCorps member educational 

attainment (lifetime)

 $- $10,775 $21,551 

State income, sales, and property taxes 

from Breakthrough Austin participant 

educational attainment (lifetime)

 $- $107,595 $198,013 

Savings in reduced public assistance,

social insurance, and corrections 

spending from member postsecondary 

educational attainment (lifetime)

 $- $579 $1,158 

Savings in reduced public assistance,

social insurance, and corrections 

spending from program participant 

educational attainment (lifetime)

 $- $338,508 $599,981 

Federal government benefits $33,836 $1,340,170 $2,391,564 

Federal income tax revenue education 

awards and living allowances* $17,843 $17,843 $17,843 

Social Security and Medicare tax revenue 

from education awards and living 

allowances*

 $13,650 $13,650 $13,650 

Federal income tax revenue from 

employment $1,431 $14,194 $18,222 

Social Security and Medicare tax revenue 

from employment $912 $9,049 $11,616 

Federal income and Social Security tax 

revenue from postsecondary educational 

attainment (lifetime)

 $- $40,150 $80,299 

Federal income and Social Security tax 

revenue from program participant 

educational attainment (lifetime)

 $- $686,908 $1,298,210 

Savings in reduced social insurance, 

corrections, and public assistance 

spending from member postsecondary 

educational attainment (lifetime)

 $- $2,868 $5,736 

Savings in reduced social insurance, 

corrections, and public assistance 

spending from program participant 

educational attainment (lifetime) 

 $- $555,510 $945,989 

Total $43,300 $1,814,477 $3,231,447 

*Living allowances and education awards are one-time taxable payments. The resulting tax revenue does 

not vary by scenario. 

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. 
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Measuring Forgone Benefits (Opportunity Costs)

The analysis included two types of forgone benefits, referred to as opportunity costs, in 

each of the three ROI calculations to conservatively estimate the return of 

Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program: forgone benefits from a professional 

opportunity cost to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members and forgone benefits from an 

investment opportunity cost to funders. Each of these forgone benefit (opportunity cost) 

types is subtracted from the total program benefits—that stem from Breakthrough 

Central Texas’s Austin program—to calculate net benefits. Net benefits are then 

compared to the program cost to calculate each ROI. The methodologies used to 

calculate these two forgone benefits (opportunity costs) are described below. 

Forgone Benefits From Professional Opportunity Cost to Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps Members 

There is a professional opportunity cost to Breakthrough AmeriCorps members for their 

period of national service, during which they could have otherwise been working. 

This includes both the forgone earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members for their 

service term and the forgone taxes associated with those lost earnings. To calculate 

this, the analysis first used the demographic distribution of Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members for the 2019–2020 program year—in terms of gender, age, race/ethnicity, and 

pre-service education level—and ASEC data to estimate the weighted unemployment 

rate for this population (i.e., 4.2 percent). This represents how many of these 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members would have been unemployed if they did not serve 

with Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program. Using the weighted unemployment 

rate and the number of Breakthrough AmeriCorps member FTEs who served during the 

2019–2020 program year (i.e., 9), the analysis estimated the number of members who 

would have been employed without serving with Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin

program based on their demographic characteristics (i.e., 2). Then the analysis 

multiplied this value by the weighted post-tax annual earnings per-person, shown in 

Table 23. The methodology used to calculate this latter monetary amount is described 

in the previous Increased Earnings Due to Reduced Unemployment section. The posttax amount subtracts all applicable payroll taxes (e.g., federal income, state income, 

Medicare, and Social Security). The product of multiplying 2 by the weighted post-tax 

annual earnings represents what Breakthrough AmeriCorps members would have 

earned in total if they did not serve with Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program. 

Separately, the analysis then multiplied the number of Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

member FTEs who served by the amount they earned during their national service in the 

form of a post-tax living allowance (i.e., $10,840 per person). This represents the 

aggregate amount Breakthrough AmeriCorps members earned during their service 

term. The difference between what they would have earned if they did not serve and 

what they did earn because they served equals the total post-tax earnings forgone due 

to serving with Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program. These values and the 

formula used to calculate the forgone post-tax earnings are shown in Table 23.
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Table 23. Forgone Earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps Members for a Service Term

Row Component Value Source

A Breakthrough Austin middle school 

AmeriCorps member FTEs

9 Breakthrough Central Texas

B Weighted unemployment rate 5.6% U.S. Census Bureau (2019-b) & 

Breakthrough Central Texas

C Weighted post-tax annual earnings per 

person (2021$)

$23,409 U.S. Census Bureau (2019-b), 

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 

(2019-a), & Breakthrough 

Central Texas

D Post-tax living allowance per person $10,840 Breakthrough Central Texas

E Total post-tax earnings forgone (2021$) $98,257 [A x (1 – B) x C] – (A x D)

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. 

The second portion of this professional opportunity cost was the forgone taxes 

associated with the earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members lost for this year of 

service. Federal income, state income, Social Security, and Medicare taxes specific to 

the per-person weighted pre-tax earnings amount were calculated. Specifically, the 

estimated proportional federal and state income tax rates used were 7.3 percent and 

2.8 percent, respectively. The analysis also estimated the sales taxes lost based on the 

per-person post-tax earnings forgone by the Breakthrough AmeriCorps members. 

Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2021), 

the analysis estimated that based on the per-person weighted pre-tax earnings of 

Breakthrough AmeriCorps members (i.e., $27,035), 44.9 percent of their income would 

have been spent on taxable goods, as opposed to 53.1 percent of the living 

allowance. Then the weighted combined state and local sales tax rate (i.e., 

7.43 percent)—used earlier in this analysis to calculate government benefits—was 

applied to the difference in expected spending on taxable goods to represent the 

resulting sales tax revenue lost due to individuals serving with Breakthrough Central 

Texas’s Austin program instead of working for higher pay. The totals for these taxes are 

listed in Table 24. 
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Table 24. Forgone Taxes Associated With the Forgone Earnings of Breakthrough 

AmeriCorps Members for a Service Term

Forgone taxes

Taxes without 

service term

(2021$)

Taxes realized 

from living 

allowance

(2021$)

Net taxes 

forgone

(2021$)

Federal forgone taxes (i.e., federal 

professional opportunity cost) $31,891 $9,757 $22,134

Federal income taxes $13,705 $524 $13,181

Social Security and Medicare taxes $18,186 $9,233 $8,953 

Non-federal forgone taxes $13,562 $9,291 $4,271

State income taxes $6,656 $3,379 $3,277 

Sales taxes $6,905 $5,911 $994 

Total Taxes $45,453 $38,096 $26,405 

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. 

For the federal government benefits per federal dollar ROI calculation, only federal 

government (not total) benefits are included. Because of this, only federal components 

of the professional opportunity cost are subtracted from all federal government 

benefits—realized due to Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program—in this ROI 

calculation. The parts of the professional opportunity cost subtracted from these total 

federal government benefits include the forgone net federal income taxes (i.e., 

$13,181) and the net forgone Social Security and Medicare taxes (i.e., $8,953). The sum 

of these two values is called the federal professional opportunity cost. The sum of all the 

values listed in Table 24 and the forgone post-tax earnings of Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members is called the total professional opportunity cost. These naming conventions 

are referenced in the Calculating ROI section. 

Forgone Benefits From the Investment Opportunity Cost to Funders 

The investment opportunity cost estimates the expected forgone return if funds used to 

support the activities and positions of Breakthrough AmeriCorps members during the 

most recent program year were invested in U.S. Treasury bonds instead. An investment 

opportunity cost is calculated for two different funding streams: 1) all Breakthrough 

program funding for the 2019–2020 program year and 2) only federal funding for the 

same program year. This is done because two of the three ROI calculations only have 

federal (not total) program costs included. Thus, for 1) the federal government benefits 

per federal dollar and 2) the total benefits per federal dollar ROI calculations, the 

investment opportunity cost subtracted from the benefits in these calculations is the 

forgone accrued interest from investing only the federal funds into these U.S. Treasury 

bonds. For the other ROI calculation, the investment opportunity cost subtracted from 

the benefits realized is the forgone accrued interest from investing all Breakthrough 

program funds (both federal and non-federal) into these U.S. Treasury bonds. Therefore, 
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the analysis estimated forgone accrued interests across all three scenarios when 1) all 

Breakthrough program funds and 2) only federal Breakthrough program funds are 

invested in U.S. Treasury bonds.

To calculate these forgone accrued interest values, the analysis first matched 2019 real 

interest rates provided by the Office of Management and Budget (2020) to each of the 

scenarios included in this ROI analysis. The analysis used 2019 real interest rates for 

U.S. Treasury bonds because the Breakthrough program year analyzed began in 2019. 

The real interest rate for the 3-year maturity was used for the short-term scenario, the 

average between the 10-year and 20-year maturity rates was used as the rate for the 

medium-term scenario, and the 30-year maturity rate was used for the long-term 

scenario. These real interest rates were 1.3 percent, 1.45 percent, and 1.5 percent, 

respectively (Office of Management and Budget, 2020). Also, the number of years 

elapsed on these U.S. Treasury bonds was equal to the number of years the different 

scenarios assumed Breakthrough AmeriCorps members’ employment and earnings 

gains were sustained. These values are 1 year, 15 years, and 30 years for the short-, 

medium-, and long-term scenarios, respectively. Given that U.S. Treasury bonds 

compound biannually, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury (2019), 

the formula used to calculate the forgone accrued interest for each of the three 

scenarios for the two funding streams is listed in Figure 5, where A equals the forgone 

accrued interest (e.g., the investment opportunity cost), P equals the amount of one of 

the funding streams, r equals the 2019 real interest rate, and t equals the number of 

years elapsed. 

Figure 5. Compound Interest Formula Used to Calculate Investment Opportunity Cost

Based on this formula, the forgone benefits from the investment opportunity cost 

calculated by scenario and funding stream are listed in Table 25, along with their 

associated inputs. The forgone accrued interest amounts for all funding are called the 

total investment opportunity costs while that for federal funding only are called the 

federal investment opportunity costs. These naming conventions are referenced in the 

Calculating ROI section. 
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Table 25. Forgone Benefits From Investment Opportunity Cost Calculation by Scenario 

and Funding Stream

Metric

Short-term Medium-term Long-term

All funding

Federal 

funding 

only All funding

Federal 

funding 

only All funding

Federal 

funding 

only

Real 

interest 

rate 

0.6% 0.8% 1.0%

Years 

elapsed 1 15 30

Funding 

amount $810,388 $151,845 $810,388 $151,845 $810,388 $151,845

Forgone 

return 

(accrued 

interest) 

$9,343 $1,247 $173,358 $23,143 $405,245 $54,100

Measuring Program Costs

Table 26 shows the costs of Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin program by cost 

category and funding source. AmeriCorps funds roughly 19 percent of the program 

through their AmeriCorps State and National grant while other funders contribute 81

percent. 

Table 26. Funding Sources and Amounts for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin 

Program (2018–2019)

Funding source Amount Percentage of Total 

Cost categories $810,388 

Operating $631,963 78% 

AmeriCorps member expenses $178,425 22% 

Funding source $810,388 

AmeriCorps $151,845 19% 

Other $658,543 81% 

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Source: Breakthrough Central Texas (2022)

Calculating ROI 

To complete the three ROI calculations for Breakthrough Central Texas’s Austin 

program, the sum of applicable program benefits is reduced by the forgone benefits, or 

the professional and investment opportunity costs (where appropriate), and then 

compared to the cost of the program. As described previously, these three ROI 
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calculations are calculated for each of the three scenarios: short-term, medium-term, 

and long-term. 

Since two of the calculations include benefits to society (e.g., Breakthrough AmeriCorps 

members, Breakthrough program participants, etc.), the results are expressed as cost–

benefit ratios, while maintaining the ROI terminology. Specifically, these ratios take the 

form of the sum of monetized benefits over the sum of applicable program costs. The 

ROIs expressed as cost–benefit ratios in this study can be interpreted as the amount of 

dollars returned for every $1 of investment (or program cost).30 

The formulas used to calculate each of the three ROIs are shown below:31

Table 27, Table 28, and Table 29 show the total benefits, opportunity costs, program 

costs, and ROI results for each scenario. 

Table 27. ROI Calculations for Short-Term Scenario

Components

Total benefits per 

federal dollar 

(2021$)

Total benefits per 

funder dollar 

(2021$)

Federal government 

benefits per federal 

dollar (2021$)

Total program benefits $164,942 164,942 $33,836

Total forgone benefits 

(opportunity costs) $140,541 $140,541 $24,729

Total program costs $151,845 $810,388 $151,845

Result $0.16 $0.03 $0.06

30 ROIs can be expressed in percentages or as ratios, such as in this study. Although not shown as a ratio in 

the results, the ROIs in this study show the amount of return for every $1 invested. 

31 Non-government stakeholders in this ROI analysis include Breakthrough AmeriCorps members and 

program participants. 

Total 

Benefits per 

Federal 

Dollar

= 

(Benefits to Non-Government Stakeholders + Benefits to Government) – 

(Forgone Benefits From Total Professional Opportunity Cost + Forgone 

Benefits From Federal Investment Opportunity Cost)

(AmeriCorps Federal Funding) 

Total 

Benefits 

per Funder 

Dollar

= 

(Benefits to Non-Government Stakeholders + Benefits to Government) – 

(Forgone Benefits From Total Professional Opportunity Cost + Forgone 

Benefits From Total Investment Opportunity Cost)

(AmeriCorps Federal Funding + Non-Federal Match Funding) 

Federal 

Government 

Benefits per 

Federal Dollar

= 

(Benefits to the Federal Government) – (Forgone Benefits From Federal 

Professional Opportunity Cost + Forgone Benefits From Federal Investment 

Opportunity Cost)

(AmeriCorps Federal Funding) 
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Table 28. ROI Calculations for Medium-Term Scenario

Components

Total benefits per 

federal dollar 

(2020$)

Total benefits per 

funder dollar 

(2020$)

Federal government 

benefits per federal 

dollar (2020$)

Total program benefits $4,842,619 $4,842,619 $1,340,170

Total forgone benefits 

(opportunity costs) $304,557 $304,557 $46,625

Total program costs $151,845 $810,388 $151,845

Result $29.89 $5.60 $8.52

Table 29. ROI Calculations for Long-Term Scenario

Components

Total benefits per 

federal dollar 

(2020$)

Total benefits per 

funder dollar 

(2020$)

Federal government 

benefits per federal 

dollar (2020$)

Total program benefits $8,820,672 $8,820,672 $2,391,564

Total forgone benefits 

(opportunity costs) $536,443 $536,443 $77,582

Total program costs $151,845 $810,388 $151,845

Result $54.56 $10.22 $15.24
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Appendix C: Results by Year

Table 30 shows the breakdown of costs and benefits over a 30-year period. Program 

activities create a stream of benefits over time to program participants, AmeriCorps 

members, the federal government, state and local governments, and society. 

AmeriCorps members’ forgone benefits from professional opportunity cost apply to the

first year. Funders’ forgone benefits from investment opportunity cost accrue over time. 

Program costs are expended in the first year only. Program benefits are shown in 

nominal dollars. 
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Table 30. Breakthrough Central Texas Program Benefits and Costs per Year

Benefits and costs Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 

Benefits $134,286 $21,778 $22,168 $22,569 $156,485 $323,177 $330,486 $338,015

Program participants $0 $0 $0 $0 $77,913 $175,693 $180,963 $186,392

AmeriCorps members $101,566 $15,709 $15,998 $16,297 $16,604 $16,921 $17,247 $17,582

Federal government $24,042 $4,182 $4,249 $4,318 $52,602 $111,986 $113,412 $114,880

State and local 

government 

$8,678 $1,887 $1,920 $1,954 $9,366 $18,577 $18,864 $19,160

Forgone benefits 

(opportunity costs) 

$140,541 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383

Forgone benefits to 

members

$102,798 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Forgone tax revenue $28,400 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Federal taxes $23,482 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

State/local taxes $4,918 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Forgone benefits from 

total investments 

(all funders)

$9,343 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383

Forgone benefits from 

federal investments

$1,247 $1,653 $1,653 $1,653 $1,653 $1,653 $1,653 $1,653

Program costs $810,388 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Federal government $151,845 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Non-federal $658,543 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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Benefits and costs Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 

Benefits $571,244 $885,419 $1,183,480 $1,490,483 $1,806,696 $2,132,395 $2,467,865 $2,813,400

Program participants $350,652 $575,548 $868,064 $1,169,355 $1,479,685 $1,799,325 $2,128,554 $2,467,660

AmeriCorps members $17,928 $18,285 $18,652 $19,030 $19,419 $19,820 $20,233 $20,658

Federal government $171,480 $246,340 $250,810 $255,415 $260,157 $265,042 $270,073 $275,256

State and local 

government 

$31,183 $45,247 $45,955 $46,684 $47,435 $48,208 $49,005 $49,825

Forgone benefits 

(opportunity costs) 

$12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $15,459 $15,459

Forgone benefits to 

members

$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Forgone tax revenue $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Federal taxes $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

State/local taxes $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Forgone benefits from 

total investments 

(all funders)

$12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $12,383 $15,459 $15,459

Forgone benefits from 

federal investments

$1,653 $1,653 $1,653 $1,653 $1,653 $1,653 $2,063 $2,063

Program costs $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Federal government $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Non-federal $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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Benefits and costs Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20 Year 21 Year 22 Year 23 Year 24 

Benefits $3,169,300 $3,535,878 $3,913,453 $4,302,355 $4,702,924 $5,115,510 $5,540,474 $5,978,187

Program participants $2,816,940 $3,176,697 $3,547,248 $3,928,915 $4,322,032 $4,726,942 $5,144,000 $5,573,569

AmeriCorps members $21,096 $21,548 $22,013 $22,491 $22,985 $23,492 $24,016 $24,555

Federal government $280,594 $286,092 $291,754 $297,587 $303,595 $309,783 $316,157 $322,721

State and local 

government 

$50,671 $51,541 $52,438 $53,362 $54,313 $55,293 $56,302 $57,342

Forgone benefits 

(opportunity costs) 

$15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459

Forgone benefits to 

members

$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Forgone tax revenue $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Federal taxes $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

State/local taxes $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Forgone benefits from 

total investments 

(all funders)

$15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459

Forgone benefits from 

federal investments

$2,064 $2,064 $2,064 $2,064 $2,064 $2,064 $2,064 $2,064 

Program costs $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Federal government $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Non-federal $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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Benefits and costs Year 25 Year 26 Year 27 Year 28 Year 29 Year 30 

Benefits $6,429,031 $6,893,400 $7,371,701 $7,864,350 $8,371,779 $8,894,431

Program participants $6,016,026 $6,471,756 $6,941,158 $7,424,642 $7,922,631 $8,435,559

AmeriCorps members $25,110 $25,681 $26,270 $26,877 $27,501 $28,145

Federal government $329,483 $336,448 $343,621 $351,010 $358,621 $366,459

State and local government $58,412 $59,515 $60,651 $61,821 $63,026 $64,267

Forgone benefits (opportunity 

costs) $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459

Forgone benefits to members $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Forgone tax revenue $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Federal taxes $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

State/local taxes $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Forgone benefits from total 

investments (all funders) $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459 $15,459

Forgone benefits from 

federal investments $2,064 $2,064 $2,064 $2,064 $2,064 $2,064 

Program costs $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

Federal government $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Non-federal $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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