8.4-i

APPENDIX 8.4. LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY 

PRICE SCENARIOS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

8.4.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... 8.4-1

8.4.2 LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING AEO 2003 HIGH GROWTH PRICE 

SCENARIO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4-3

8.4.3 LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING AEO 2003 LOW GROWTH PRICE 

SCENARIO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4-16

LIST OF TABLES

Table 8.4.2.1 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) . 8.4-3

Table 8.4.2.2 LCC and PBP Results for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) ..... 8.4-6

Table 8.4.2.3 LCC and PBP Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (High Growth) ........ 8.4-8

Table 8.4.2.4 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Furnaces (High Growth) ............... 8.4-10

Table 8.4.2.5 LCC and PBP Results for Gas Boilers (High Growth) ................ 8.4-12

Table 8.4.2.6 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Boilers (High Growth) ................. 8.4-14

Table 8.4.3.1 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) 8.4-16

Table 8.4.3.2 LCC and PBP for Weatherized Furnaces (Low Growth) .............. 8.4-19

Table 8.4.3.3 LCC and PBP Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (Low Growth) ...... 8.4-21

Table 8.4.3.4 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Furnaces (Low Growth) ............... 8.4-23

Table 8.4.3.5 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Boilers (Low Growth) ................. 8.4-25

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 8.4.1.1 Residential Natural Gas Price Forecast (AEO 2003) ................... 8.4-1

Figure 8.4.1.2 Residential Electricity Price Forecast (AEO 2003) .................... 8.4-2

Figure 8.4.1.3 Residential Oil Fuel Price Forecast (AEO 2003) ...................... 8.4-2

Figure 8.4.2.1 National LCC Savings Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces 

(High Growth) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4-5

Figure 8.4.2.2 National LCC Savings Results for Weatherized Furnaces (High Growth) . . 8.4-7

Figure 8.4.2.3 National LCC Savings Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (High Growth) . 8.4-9

Figure 8.4.2.4 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Furnaces (High Growth) ........ 8.4-11

Figure 8.4.2.5 National LCC Savings Results for Gas Boilers (High Growth) ......... 8.4-13

Figure 8.4.2.6 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Boilers (High Growth) .......... 8.4-15

Figure 8.4.3.1 National LCC Savings Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces 

(Low Growth) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4-18

Figure 8.4.3.2 National LCC Savings Results for Weatherized Furnaces (Low Growth) . 8.4-20

Figure 8.4.3.3 National LCC Savings Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (Low Growth) 8.4-22
8.4-ii

Figure 8.4.3.4 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Furnaces (Low Growth) ......... 8.4-24

Figure 8.4.3.5 National LCC Savings Result for Oil Boilers (Low Growth) ........... 8.4-26

Figure 8.4.3.6 National LCC Savings Results for Gas Boilers (Low Growth) .......... 8.4-28
a

 After 2025, the price in the Low Economic Growth case is higher than in the Reference case. This results from DOE’s

use of the average annual growth rate in the 2010-2025 period to project post-2025 prices. In the Low case, Alaskan

gas flows occur later in time, so the price of gas rises significantly in the 2015-2025 period despite the lower economic

growth in this case.

8.4-1

APPENDIX 8.4. LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY 

PRICE SCENARIOS

8.4.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix presents life-cycle cost (LCC) and payback results using alternative

energy price scenarios from EIA’s AEO2003.

1

 The Department based the payback periods on

the calculation methodology used in Chapter 8: Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis. 

Figures 8.4.1.1, 8.4.1.2 and 8.4.1.3 show the price forecasts from AEO 003 for natural

gas, oil, and electricity for the three economic growth cases considered by EIA. For natural gas,

the price in the High Economic Growth case is considerably higher than in the Reference case in

2012. The decline in 2018-2020 is due to the fact that initial gas flows from the Alaskan

pipeline occur earlier in the High Economic Growth case than in the Reference case. The price

in this case rises much faster than in the Reference case after 2020 due to higher economic

growth causing greater demand for gas.a

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00

$8.50

$9.00

$9.50

$10.00

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

$/MMBtu

AEO 2003 - REF

AEO 2003 - LOW

AEO 2003 - HIGH

Figure 8.4.1.1 Residential Natural Gas Price Forecast (AEO 2003)
8.4-2

$19.00

$20.00

$21.00

$22.00

$23.00

$24.00

$25.00

$26.00

$27.00

$28.00

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

$/MMBtu

AEO 2003 - REF

AEO 2003 - LOW

AEO 2003 - HIGH

Figure 8.4.1.2 Residential Electricity Price Forecast (AEO 2003)

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00

$8.50

$9.00

$9.50

$10.00

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

$/MMBtu

AEO 2003 - REF

AEO 2003 - LOW

AEO 2003 - HIGH

Figure 8.4.1.3 Residential Oil Fuel Price Forecast (AEO 2003)
8.4-3

8.4.2 LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING AEO 2003 HIGH GROWTH PRICE

SCENARIO

Table 8.4.2.1 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth)

LCC Payback

Design Option:

AFUE/Electricity

Average Average

Savings

Net

Cost

No

Impact*

Net

Benefit

Median Average*

$ $ % % % years years

78% $10,264

80% $10,087 $0 0% 99% 1% 2.1 34.7

80% PSC+ $10,075 $8 15% 27% 58% 5.3 5.1

80% ECM $10,155 -$51 58% 27% 16% 21.8 31.7

80% BC/ECM+ $10,098 -$9 48% 27% 25% 16.3 24.6

80% 2-stage mod. $10,006 $44 33% 27% 40% 8.3 13.2

80% 2-mod. ECM $10,071 -$2 45% 27% 28% 14.6 20.0

80% 2-stage mod. BC/ECM+ $10,054 $15 43% 27% 30% 13.6 19.9

81% 8% Cat. III $10,078 -$1 32% 27% 42% 8.5 26.7

81% PSC+ $10,066 $8 29% 26% 45% 7.7 20.3

81% ECM $10,147 -$53 50% 26% 24% 16.9 24.9

81% BC/ECM+ $10,089 -$10 43% 26% 31% 14.0 21.8

81% 2-stage Mod, no Cat. III $9,964 $68 28% 26% 46% 7.4 16.4

81% 2-stage Mod ECM $10,068 -$7 43% 26% 31% 13.7 20.2

81% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+ $10,051 $11 41% 26% 33% 13.0 19.6

82% $10,455 -$287 69% 26% 4% 25.1 77.5

82% PSC+ $10,443 -$278 69% 26% 5% 25.2 74.6

82% ECM $10,524 -$339 70% 26% 4% 45.6 92.8

82% BC/ECM+ $10,467 -$297 67% 26% 7% 32.6 76.1

82% 2-stage Mod $10,385 -$249 64% 26% 10% 17.7 52.2

82% 2-stage Mod ECM $10,488 -$295 66% 26% 8% 33.1 78.4

82% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+ $10,430 -$277 64% 26% 10% 29.2 67.7

83% $10,682 -$462 73% 26% 1% 59.7 119.7

90% Baseline Cond. $10,179 -$134 54% 26% 19% 17.0 41.4

90% PSC+ $10,168 -$124 56% 15% 29% 13.7 36.8

90% ECM $10,260 -$199 64% 15% 20% 20.3 45.0
8.4-4

90% BC/ECM+ $10,205 -$148 61% 15% 24% 18.0 40.2

91% 2-stage Mod ECM $10,145 -$108 57% 15% 28% 15.7 40.5

91% 2-stage BC/ECM+ $10,120 -$82 55% 15% 29% 15.3 36.1

91% Step Mod ECM $10,363 -$294 65% 15% 19% 21.0 51.7

91% Step Mod BC/ECM+ $10,351 -$278 65% 15% 20% 20.4 45.7

92%Incr. HX Area $10,181 -$143 58% 15% 26% 15.3 38.8

92% PSC+ $10,170 -$132 61% 2% 37% 12.6 34.5

92% ECM $10,263 -$223 74% 2% 24% 20.3 45.3

92% BC/ECM+ $10,208 -$167 71% 2% 28% 18.1 38.4

93% 2-stage Mod ECM $10,154 -$115 64% 2% 34% 15.0 38.3

93% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+ $10,129 -$90 64% 2% 35% 15.0 35.4

93% Step Mod ECM $10,374 -$333 76% 2% 23% 20.6 49.8

93% Step Mod BC/ECM+ $10,361 -$319 76% 2% 23% 20.3 45.0

96% Step Mod ECM $10,958 -$907 88% 2% 10% 30.7 82.8

96% Step Mod BC/ECM+ $10,967 -$917 90% 0% 10% 31.4 84.2

* “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level

indicated, so the household is not affected. 
8.4-5

LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option

80% Incr. HX Area

80% PSC+

80% ECM

80% BC/ECM+

80% 2-stage Mod

80% 2-stage Mod ECM

80% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+

81% with 8% Cat. III

81% no Cat. III

81% PSC+

81% ECM

81% BC/ECM+

81% 2 stage Mod, 8% Cat. III

81% 2 stage Mod, no Cat. III

81% 2 stage Mod ECM

81% 2 stage Mod BC/ECM+

90% Baseline Cond.

90% PSC+

90% ECM

90% BC/ECM+

91% 2 stage Mod ECM

91% 2 stage Mod BC/ECM+

91% Step Mod ECM

91% Step Mod BC/ECM+

92% Incr. HX Area

92% PSC+

92% ECM

92% BC/ECM+

93% 2 stage Mod ECM

93% 2 stage Mod BC/ECM+

93% Step Mod ECM

93% Step Mod BC/ECM+

96% Step Mod ECM

96% Cont Mod BC/ECM+

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Median

Mean

Figure 8.4.2.1 National LCC Savings Results for Non-Weatherized Gas

Furnaces (High Growth)
8.4-6

Table 8.4.2.2 LCC and PBP Results for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth)

LCC Payback

Design Option:

AFUE/Electricity

Average Average

Savings

Net

Cost

No Impact* Net

Benefit

Median Average*

78% Baseline $8,716

80% Incr. HX Area $8,625 $2 0% 98% 2% 1.1 1.4

80% Improved Insulation $8,621 $4 25% 46% 29% 9.0 8.1

80% PSC+ $8,607 $11 6% 46% 48% 3.2 3.9

80% ECM $8,688 -$32 42% 46% 13% 18.2 25.0

80% Improved Heat Xfer $8,635 -$4 52% 46% 2% 2.7 3.4

81% Incr. HX Area $8,584 $24 2% 46% 52% 1.9 2.5

81% Improved Insulation $8,580 $27 19% 20% 61% 5.0 6.2

81% PSC+ $8,566 $38 4% 20% 76% 2.7 3.2

81% ECM $8,647 -$27 55% 20% 25% 15.2 20.0

81% Improved Heat Xfer $8,590 $19 32% 20% 48% 3.7 4.9

82% Incr. HX Area $8,544 $55 3% 20% 78% 2.0 2.8

82% Improved Insulation $8,541 $59 18% 0% 82% 4.2 5.4

82% PSC+ $8,527 $73 3% 0% 97% 2.5 3.1

82% ECM $8,608 -$8 62% 0% 38% 13.4 17.4

82% Improved Heat Xfer $8,546 $54 24% 0% 76% 2.4 3.3

83% Incr. HX Area $8,510 $90 6% 0% 94% 2.8 3.8

83% Improved Insulation $8,507 $93 11% 0% 89% 3.8 5.2

83% PSC+ $8,493 $107 3% 0% 97% 2.8 3.5

83% ECM $8,574 $26 54% 0% 46% 11.7 14.2

83% Improved Heat Xfer $8,507 $92 4% 0% 96% 2.3 3.2

* “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level

indicated, so the household is not affected. 
8.4-7

LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option

80% Incr HX Area

80% Improved Insulation

80% PSC+

80% ECM

80% Improved Heat Xfer

81% Incr HX Area

81% Improved Insulation

81% PSC+

81% ECM

81% Improved Heat Xfer

82% Incr HX Area

82% Improved Insulation

82% PSC+

82% ECM

82% Improved Heat Xfer

83% Incr HX Area

83% Improved Insulation

83% PSC+

83% ECM

83% Improved Heat Xfer

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Median

Mean

Figure 8.4.2.2 National LCC Savings Results for Weatherized Furnaces (High

Growth)
8.4-8

Table 8.4.2.3 LCC and PBP Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (High Growth)

LCC Payback

Design Option:

AFUE/Electricity

Average

LCC

Average

Savings

Net

Cost

No

Impact*

Net

Benefit

Median Average*

75% Baseline $8,149

80% $7,704 $67 1% 85% 14% 2.3 4.4

80% ECM $7,780 -$5 65% 5% 30% 19.0 35.6

80% 2-stage modulation $7,938 -$156 79% 5% 16% 25.2 60.8

81% $7,650 $118 9% 5% 86% 4.2 6.1

81% ECM $7,726 $46 54% 5% 41% 14.8 20.4

81% 2-stage modulation $7,888 -$109 74% 5% 21% 24.3 59.0

82% $7,605 $160 13% 5% 82% 4.9 7.3

82% ECM $7,680 $89 45% 5% 50% 12.7 16.6

82% 2-stage modulation $7,846 -$69 69% 5% 26% 22.2 55.0

90% $7,555 $207 45% 5% 50% 12.1 21.8

* “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level

indicated, so the household is not affected. 
8.4-9

LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option

80% Incr HX Area

80% ECM

80% 2-Stage Mod

81% Incr HX Area

81% ECM

81% 2-Stage Mod

82% Incr HX Area

82% ECM

82% 2-Stage Mod

90% Condensing

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Median

Mean

Figure 8.4.2.3 National LCC Savings Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (High

Growth)
8.4-10

Table 8.4.2.4 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Furnaces (High Growth)

LCC Payback

Design Option:

AFUE/Electricity Average 

Average

Savings

Net

Cost

No

Impact*

Net

Benefit

Median Average*

78% AFUE - Baseline $16,584 

80% AFUE- Incr. HX Area $16,281 $12 0% 96% 4% 0.2 0.2

81% AFUE- Incr. HX Area $16,138 $98 2% 39% 59% 0.4 0.5

81% AFUE Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $16,258 $13 42% 30% 28% 11.5 19.1

81% AFUE Interrupted Ignition $16,160 $82 12% 30% 58% 2.7 4.8

81% AFUE ECM $16,313 -$24 49% 30% 21% 13.7 21.6

82% AFUE- Incr. HX Area $15,997 $196 2% 30% 68% 0.3 0.4

82% AFUE Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $16,123 $98 34% 22% 43% 8.4 13.7

82% AFUE Interrupted Ignition $16,019 $179 10% 22% 68% 1.6 3.5

82%AFUE ECM $16,171 $62 37% 22% 40% 8.8 16.0

83% AFUE- Incr. HX Area $15,860 $302 3% 22% 75% 0.3 0.4

83% AFUE Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $15,991 $190 30% 15% 55% 6.7 11.2

83% AFUE Interrupted Ignition $15,882 $284 10% 15% 75% 1.3 2.9

83%AFUE ECM $16,033 $154 31% 15% 54% 6.8 14.3

84% AFUE- Incr. HX Area $16,331 -$98 56% 15% 29% 13.3 20.3

84% AFUE Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $16,467 -$225 69% 7% 23% 16.0 24.8

84% AFUE Interrupted Ignition $16,352 -$119 65% 7% 28% 14.1 20.7

84%AFUE ECM $16,504 -$259 73% 7% 20% 17.0 31.4

85% AFUE- Incr. HX Area $16,205 $17 47% 7% 45% 9.7 13.5

85% AFUE Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $16,346 -$124 68% 0% 32% 13.5 19.9

85% AFUE Interrupted Ignition $16,227 -$4 56% 0% 44% 10.5 14.6

85%AFUE ECM $16,378 -$155 70% 0% 30% 14.1 26.1

* “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level

indicated, so the household is not affected. 
8.4-11

LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option

80% Incr HX Area81% Incr HX Area

81% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod

81% Interrupted Ignition

81% Improved Supply Fan Motor

82% Incr HX Area

82% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod

82% Interrupted Ignition

82% Improved Supply Fan Motor

83% Incr HX Area

83% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod

83% Interrupted Ignition

83% Improved Supply Fan Motor

84% Incr HX Area

84% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod

84% Interrupted Ignition

84% Improved Supply Fan Motor

85% Incr HX Area

85% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod

85% Interrupted Ignition

85% Improved Supply Fan Motor

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Median

Mean

Figure 8.4.2.4 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Furnaces (High Growth)
8.4-12

Table 8.4.2.5 LCC and PBP Results for Gas Boilers (High Growth)

LCC Payback

Design Option:

AFUE/Electricity

Average

LCC

Average

Savings

Net

Cost

No

Impact*

Net

Benefit

Median Average*

80% Baseline $10,876

81% $10,601 $96 0% 65% 35% 2.1 2.3

81% 2-stage modulation $10,837 -$37 38% 44% 18% 9.6 14.4

81% Imp Circ Pump $10,848 -$43 40% 44% 17% 14.5 53.6

82% $10,542 $130 3% 44% 54% 2.4 3.1

82% 2-stage modulation $10,777 -$36 48% 30% 22% 8.9 18.8

82% Imp Circ Pump $10,789 -$44 50% 30% 20% 18.3 41.3

83% $10,480 $173 4% 30% 66% 2.4 3.2

83% 2-stage modulation $10,716 -$28 58% 15% 27% 9.4 22.3

83% Imp Circ Pump $10,728 -$37 60% 15% 25% 17.0 38.1

84% $10,421 $224 6% 15% 79% 2.4 3.3

84% 2-stage modulation $10,656 $2 61% 6% 33% 10.0 21.9

84% Imp Circ Pump $10,669 -$9 62% 6% 32% 14.4 30.2

88% $10,954 -$276 66% 6% 28% 16.8 28.7

91% $11,027 -$346 73% 3% 24% 18.1 39.7

99% $11,492 -$811 84% 0% 16% 20.5 41.6

* “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level

indicated, so the household is not affected. 
8.4-13

LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option

81% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign

81% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft

81% Imp Circ Pump

82% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign

82% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft

82% Imp Circ Pump

83% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign

83% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft

83% Imp Circ Pump

84% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign

84% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft

84% Imp Circ Pump

88% 91% 99% 

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Median

Mean

Figure 8.4.2.5 National LCC Savings Results for Gas Boilers (High Growth)
8.4-14

Table 8.4.2.6 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Boilers (High Growth)

LCC Payback

Design Option:

AFUE/Electricity

Average Average

Savings

Net

Cost

No

Impact*

Net

Benefit

Median Average*

80% $15,210

81% $15,088 $6 0% 95% 5% 0.6 0.8

81% Atomized Burner $15,491 -$36 11% 89% 0% 70.5 105.0

81% Inter Ign $15,090 $6 4% 89% 7% 5.7 9.0

81% Imp Circ Pump $15,309 -$17 10% 89% 1% 37.5 60.2

82% $14,969 $19 0% 89% 11% 0.6 0.8

82% Atomized Burner $15,373 -$46 16% 84% 0% 33.6 61.0

82% Inter Ign $14,971 $19 4% 84% 12% 3.3 6.4

82% Imp Circ Pump $15,190 -$16 13% 84% 3% 20.3 42.2

83% $14,853 $38 0% 84% 16% 0.6 0.8

83% Atomized Burner $15,257 -$121 37% 61% 2% 23.3 44.8

83% Inter Ign $14,855 $37 16% 61% 24% 7.5 9.5

83% Imp Circ Pump $15,075 -$50 33% 61% 7% 49.9 63.8

84% $14,740 $82 0% 61% 39% 0.7 0.8

84% Atomized Burner $15,144 -$172 58% 37% 5% 25.9 55.3

84% Inter Ign $14,742 $80 16% 37% 47% 3.7 7.1

84% Imp Circ Pump $14,962 -$57 51% 37% 12% 23.2 47.1

86% $15,241 -$227 51% 37% 11% 22.4 30.9

86% Atomized Burner $15,645 -$603 91% 7% 2% 53.7 102.2

86% Inter Ign $15,243 -$229 71% 7% 22% 17.0 24.2

86% Imp Circ Pump $15,463 -$433 87% 7% 6% 39.9 56.8

90% $15,541 -$505 80% 7% 13% 19.0 23.1

95% $15,828 -$791 87% 0% 13% 18.6 22.5

* “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level

indicated, so the household is not affected. 
8.4-15

LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option

81%

81% Atom 2-stage

81% Inter Ign

81% Imp Circ Pump

82%

82% Atom 2-stage

82% Inter Ign

82% Imp Circ Pump

83%

83% Atom 2-stage

83% Inter Ign

83% Imp Circ Pump

84%

84% Atom 2-stage

84% Inter Ign

84% Imp Circ Pump

86% 

86% Atom 2-stage

86% Inter Ign

86% Imp Circ Pump

90%95%

-2200

-2000

-1800

-1600

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Median

Mean

Figure 8.4.2.6 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Boilers (High Growth)
8.4-16

8.4.3 LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING AEO 2003 LOW GROWTH PRICE

SCENARIO

Table 8.4.3.1 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth)

LCC Payback

Design Option:

AFUE/Electricity

Average Average

Savings

Net

Cost

No

Impact*

Net

Benefit

Median Average*

$ $ % % % years years

78% $9,855

80% $9,687 $0 0% 99% 1% 2.1 38.5

80% PSC+ $9,678 $7 18% 27% 55% 5.4 5.4

80% ECM $9,774 -$65 61% 27% 12% 24.1 35.2

80% BC/ECM+ $9,726 -$29 53% 27% 21% 18.0 27.5

80% 2-stage mod. $9,612 $41 33% 27% 40% 8.7 13.7

80% 2-mod. ECM $9,699 -$21 49% 27% 24% 16.1 21.9

80% 2-stage mod. BC/ECM+ $9,689 -$9 47% 27% 26% 14.9 21.8

81% 8% Cat. III $9,683 -$4 32% 27% 41% 9.2 28.3

81% PSC+ $9,673 $3 30% 26% 43% 8.3 21.9

81% ECM $9,770 -$69 53% 26% 21% 18.5 27.3

81% BC/ECM+ $9,722 -$33 47% 26% 27% 15.4 23.9

81% 2-stage Mod, no Cat. III $9,574 $62 29% 26% 45% 7.8 17.3

81% 2-stage Mod ECM $9,701 -$29 46% 26% 28% 14.9 21.9

81% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+ $9,690 -$16 44% 26% 30% 14.3 21.3

82% $10,064 -$293 70% 26% 4% 28.7 86.4

82% PSC+ $10,055 -$286 69% 26% 4% 29.2 85.3

82% ECM $10,151 -$358 71% 26% 3% 51.4 109.2

82% BC/ECM+ $10,104 -$322 68% 26% 6% 36.6 83.4

82% 2-stage Mod $9,998 -$258 65% 26% 9% 19.3 59.8

82% 2-stage Mod ECM $10,084 -$319 67% 26% 6% 36.1 84.9

82% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+ $10,073 -$306 66% 26% 7% 32.4 73.9

83% $10,296 -$470 73% 26% 1% 66.4 120.5

90% Baseline Cond. $9,820 -$161 56% 26% 18% 18.5 42.5

90% PSC+ $9,811 -$152 58% 15% 27% 14.8 38.0

90% ECM $9,917 -$239 67% 15% 18% 22.4 48.8

90% BC/ECM+ $9,871 -$196 64% 15% 20% 19.9 44.1
8.4-17

91% 2-stage Mod ECM $9,811 -$156 59% 15% 25% 17.1 41.0

91% 2-stage BC/ECM+ $9,794 -$137 59% 15% 26% 16.8 39.6

91% Step Mod ECM $10,032 -$344 67% 15% 17% 22.9 53.8

91% Step Mod BC/ECM+ $10,027 -$334 67% 15% 17% 22.4 50.5

92%Incr. HX Area $9,829 -$174 60% 15% 24% 16.6 41.0

92% PSC+ $9,820 -$166 64% 2% 34% 13.6 37.1

92% ECM $9,927 -$271 77% 2% 21% 22.1 47.5

92% BC/ECM+ $9,880 -$224 74% 2% 24% 19.9 41.3

93% 2-stage Mod ECM $9,827 -$173 68% 2% 31% 16.3 40.4

93% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+ $9,809 -$154 67% 2% 31% 16.3 36.2

93% Step Mod ECM $10,050 -$392 78% 2% 20% 22.4 51.7

93% Step Mod BC/ECM+ $10,043 -$384 79% 2% 20% 22.2 47.2

96% Step Mod ECM $10,642 -$976 90% 2% 8% 33.4 92.2

96% Step Mod BC/ECM+ $10,658 -$992 92% 0% 9% 34.2 87.0

* “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level

indicated, so the household is not affected. 
8.4-18

LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option

80% Incr. HX Area

80% PSC+

80% ECM

80% BC/ECM+

80% 2-stage Mod

80% 2-stage Mod ECM

80% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+

81% with 8% Cat. III

81% no Cat. III

81% PSC+

81% ECM

81% BC/ECM+

81% 2 stage Mod, 8% Cat. III

81% 2 stage Mod, no Cat. III

81% 2 stage Mod ECM

81% 2 stage Mod BC/ECM+

90% Baseline Cond.

90% PSC+

90% ECM

90% BC/ECM+

91% 2 stage Mod ECM

91% 2 stage Mod BC/ECM+

91% Step Mod ECM

91% Step Mod BC/ECM+

92% Incr. HX Area

92% PSC+

92% ECM

92% BC/ECM+

93% 2 stage Mod ECM

93% 2 stage Mod BC/ECM+

93% Step Mod ECM

93% Step Mod BC/ECM+

96% Step Mod ECM

96% Cont Mod BC/ECM+

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Median

Mean

Figure 8.4.3.1 National LCC Savings Results for Non-Weatherized Gas

Furnaces (Low Growth)
8.4-19

Table 8.4.3.2 LCC and PBP for Weatherized Furnaces (Low Growth)

LCC Payback

Design Option:

AFUE/Electricity

Average Average

Savings

Net

Cost

No

Impact*

Net

Benefit

Median Average*

78% Baseline $8,468

80% Incr. HX Area $8,381 $2 0% 98% 2% 1.1 1.5

80% Improved Insulation $8,378 $3 27% 46% 27% 9.1 8.2

80% PSC+ $8,366 $10 7% 46% 47% 3.5 4.1

80% ECM $8,461 -$41 44% 46% 10% 20.1 27.9

80% Improved Heat Xfer $8,391 -$4 52% 46% 2% 2.9 3.8

81% Incr. HX Area $8,343 $22 2% 46% 52% 2.1 2.7

81% Improved Insulation $8,340 $25 20% 20% 60% 5.3 6.5

81% PSC+ $8,328 $35 5% 20% 75% 2.8 3.4

81% ECM $8,423 -$41 60% 20% 20% 16.7 22.0

81% Improved Heat Xfer $8,349 $18 32% 20% 48% 3.9 5.2

82% Incr. HX Area $8,306 $52 3% 20% 77% 2.2 3.0

82% Improved Insulation $8,303 $55 19% 0% 81% 4.4 5.7

82% PSC+ $8,291 $67 4% 0% 96% 2.7 3.3

82% ECM $8,385 -$28 67% 0% 33% 14.7 19.0

82% Improved Heat Xfer $8,307 $51 24% 0% 76% 2.6 3.5

83% Incr. HX Area $8,274 $84 7% 0% 93% 3.0 4.0

83% Improved Insulation $8,271 $87 12% 0% 88% 4.0 5.6

83% PSC+ $8,259 $99 4% 0% 96% 3.0 3.7

83% ECM $8,353 $4 60% 0% 40% 12.7 15.5

83% Improved Heat Xfer $8,271 $87 4% 0% 96% 2.5 3.4

* “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level

indicated, so the household is not affected. 
8.4-20

LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option

80% Incr HX Area

80% Improved Insulation

80% PSC+

80% ECM

80% Improved Heat Xfer

81% Incr HX Area

81% Improved Insulation

81% PSC+

81% ECM

81% Improved Heat Xfer

82% Incr HX Area

82% Improved Insulation

82% PSC+

82% ECM

82% Improved Heat Xfer

83% Incr HX Area

83% Improved Insulation

83% PSC+

83% ECM

83% Improved Heat Xfer

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Median

Mean

Figure 8.4.3.2 National LCC Savings Results for Weatherized Furnaces (Low

Growth)
8.4-21

Table 8.4.3.3 LCC and PBP Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (Low Growth) 

LCC Payback

Design Option:

AFUE/Electricity

Average

LCC

Average

Savings

Net Cost No

Impact*

Net

Benefit

Median Average*

75% Baseline $7,759

80% $7,342 $62 2% 85% 13% 2.4 5.4

80% ECM $7,443 -$35 70% 5% 25% 21.3 38.1

80% 2-stage modulation $7,580 -$165 80% 5% 15% 25.5 62.6

81% $7,292 $110 10% 5% 85% 4.5 6.4

81% ECM $7,392 $13 61% 5% 34% 16.3 22.3

81% 2-stage modulation $7,553 -$120 75% 5% 20% 25.3 62.1

82% $7,250 $150 15% 5% 80% 5.3 7.8

82% ECM $7,349 $54 51% 5% 44% 13.8 18.2

82% 2-stage modulation $7,495 -$83 70% 5% 25% 23.0 57.5

90% $7,222 $176 47% 5% 48% 13.0 24.1

* “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level

indicated, so the household is not affected. 
8.4-22

LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option

80% Incr HX Area

80% ECM

80% 2-Stage Mod

81% Incr HX Area

81% ECM

81% 2-Stage Mod

82% Incr HX Area

82% ECM

82% 2-Stage Mod

90% Condensing

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Median

Mean

Figure 8.4.3.3 National LCC Savings Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (Low

Growth)
8.4-23

Table 8.4.3.4 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Furnaces (Low Growth) 

LCC Payback

Design Option:

AFUE/Electricity

Average Average

Savings

Net

Cost

No

Impact

Net

Benefit

Median Average

78% Baseline $15,611

80% Incr. HX Area $15,331 $11 0% 96% 4% 0.2 0.2

81% Incr. HX Area $15,200 $91 2% 39% 59% 0.4 0.5

81% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $15,332 -$2 44% 30% 26% 12.3 20.0

81% Interrupted Ignition $15,224 $74 13% 30% 57% 2.9 5.2

81% ECM $15,389 -$41 52% 30% 18% 15.2 23.9

82% Incr. HX Area $15,070 $182 2% 30% 68% 0.3 0.4

82% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $15,207 $76 37% 22% 40% 8.9 14.1

82% Interrupted Ignition $15,043 $164 10% 22% 67% 1.7 3.5

82% ECM $15,258 $36 41% 22% 36% 9.6 18.0

83% Incr. HX Area $14,943 $280 2% 22% 75% 0.3 0.4

83% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $15,085 $159 33% 15% 52% 7.1 11.9

83% Interrupted Ignition $14,967 $260 10% 15% 75% 1.4 3.1

83% ECM $15,131 $120 35% 15% 50% 7.4 14.9

84% Incr. HX Area $15,425 -$129 60% 15% 26% 14.1 21.5

84% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $15,571 -$265 72% 7% 20% 16.8 26.0

84% AFUE Interrupted Ignition $15,448 -$151 68% 7% 24% 15.0 21.9

84% ECM $15,612 -$302 76% 7% 17% 18.5 33.4

85% Incr. HX Area $15,309 -$22 51% 7% 42% 10.4 14.3

85% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $15,461 -$173 71% 0% 29% 14.2 20.8

85% Interrupted Ignition $15,333 -$46 60% 0% 40% 11.2 15.5

85% ECM $15,496 -$209 75% 0% 25% 15.4 28.5

* “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level

indicated, so the household is not affected. 
8.4-24

LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option

80% Incr HX Area81% Incr HX Area

81% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod

81% Interrupted Ignition

81% Improved Supply Fan Motor

82% Incr HX Area

82% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod

82% Interrupted Ignition

82% Improved Supply Fan Motor

83% Incr HX Area

83% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod

83% Interrupted Ignition

83% Improved Supply Fan Motor

84% Incr HX Area

84% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod

84% Interrupted Ignition

84% Improved Supply Fan Motor

85% Incr HX Area

85% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod

85% Interrupted Ignition

85% Improved Supply Fan Motor

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Median

Mean

Figure 8.4.3.4 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Furnaces (Low

Growth)
8.4-25

Table 8.4.3.5 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Boilers (Low Growth)

LCC Payback

Design Option:

AFUE/Electricity

Average Average

Savings

Net Cost No

Impact*

Net

Benefit

Median Average*

80% $14,454

81% $14,341 $6 0% 95% 5% 0.7 0.8

81% Atomized Burner $14,729 -$35 11% 89% 0% 73.0 107.1

81% Inter Ign $14,346 $5 4% 89% 7% 6.0 9.6

81% Imp Circ Pump $14,566 -$18 10% 89% 1% 40.4 67.9

82% $14,231 $18 0% 89% 11% 0.7 0.8

82% Atomized Burner $14,620 -$45 16% 84% 0% 36.8 67.8

82% Inter Ign $14,236 $17 4% 84% 12% 3.5 6.9

82% Imp Circ Pump $14,456 -$18 13% 84% 3% 21.9 46.6

83% $14,124 $35 0% 84% 16% 0.7 0.8

83% Atomized Burner $14,513 -$118 38% 61% 2% 24.1 46.3

83% Inter Ign $14,129 $33 17% 61% 22% 8.0 10.4

83% Imp Circ Pump $14,349 -$54 33% 61% 6% 54.6 71.7

84% $14,019 $76 0% 61% 39% 0.7 0.9

84% Atomized Burner $14,409 -$169 58% 37% 4% 28.2 60.1

84% Inter Ign $14,025 $72 18% 37% 45% 3.9 7.7

84% Imp Circ Pump $14,245 -$66 52% 37% 11% 24.9 52.3

86% $14,536 -$243 53% 37% 10% 23.7 32.8

86% Atomized Burner $14,927 -$606 91% 7% 2% 54.4 99.7

86% Inter Ign $14,542 -$248 75% 7% 18% 18.0 25.8

86% Imp Circ Pump $14,762 -$453 88% 7% 5% 42.6 61.8

90% $14,874 -$556 83% 7% 10% 20.2 24.6

95% $15,195 -$877 89% 0% 11% 19.7 23.8

* “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level

indicated, so the household is not affected. 
8.4-26

LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option

81%

81% Atom 2-stage

81% Inter Ign

81% Imp Circ Pump

82%

82% Atom 2-stage

82% Inter Ign

82% Imp Circ Pump

83%

83% Atom 2-stage

83% Inter Ign

83% Imp Circ Pump

84%

84% Atom 2-stage

84% Inter Ign

84% Imp Circ Pump

86% 

86% Atom 2-stage

86% Inter Ign

86% Imp Circ Pump

90%95%

-2200

-2000

-1800

-1600

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Median

Mean

Figure 8.4.3.5 National LCC Savings Result for Oil Boilers (Low Growth)
8.4-27

Table 8.4.3.6 LCC and PBP Results for Gas Boilers (Low Growth)

LCC Payback

Design Option:

AFUE/Electricity

Average

LCC

Average

Savings

Net Cost No

Impact*

Net

Benefit

Median Average*

80% Baseline $10,536

81% $10,276 $91 0% 65% 35% 2.2 2.5

81% 2-stage modulation $10,409 -$35 38% 44% 18% 10.1 14.7

81% Imp Circ Pump $10,527 -$50 41% 44% 16% 15.5 57.2

82% $10,221 $123 3% 44% 53% 2.6 3.3

82% 2-stage modulation $10,354 -$35 49% 30% 22% 9.7 21.1

82% Imp Circ Pump $10,472 -$54 51% 30% 19% 19.6 44.0

83% $10,163 $163 5% 30% 66% 2.6 3.4

83% 2-stage modulation $10,298 -$29 59% 15% 26% 10.2 24.0

83% Imp Circ Pump $10,414 -$50 62% 15% 24% 18.3 40.8

84% $10,107 $211 6% 15% 79% 2.6 3.5

84% 2-stage modulation $10,243 -$2 62% 6% 32% 10.7 22.9

84% Imp Circ Pump $10,358 -$26 64% 6% 30% 15.5 32.5

88% $10,653 -$301 67% 6% 27% 18.0 30.5

91% $10,739 -$384 75% 3% 22% 20.1 46.3

99% $11,226 -$870 86% 0% 14% 22.4 48.6

* “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level

indicated, so the household is not affected. 
8.4-28

LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option

81% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign

81% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft

81% Imp Circ Pump

82% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign

82% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft

82% Imp Circ Pump

83% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign

83% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft

83% Imp Circ Pump

84% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign

84% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft

84% Imp Circ Pump

88% 91% 99% 

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

Median

Mean

Figure 8.4.3.6 National LCC Savings Results for Gas Boilers (Low Growth)
8.4-29

REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy

Outlook 2003: With Projections Through 2025, January, 2003. Washington, DC. Report

No. DOE/EIA-0383(2003). <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo>