U n ite d S t a t e s Offic e o f W a te r (4 5 0 3 F ) EPA 8 4 1 - D- 0 1 - 0 0 3 E n vi r onm e n t a l P r ot e c t i on W a shi n gt on, D C 20460 A u gust 1, 2001 Ag e n c y www. e p a . g o v / o w 

# T **h e Nati**  **o n**  **a l**  **Co sts o**  **f th**  **e T o**  **tal M**  **a x**  **i m**  **u m**  **D a**  **ily Loa**  **d Pr ogr**  **a m**  **(Draft Report)**DRAF T F O R REVI EW AND COM M E NT



# T h e N a ti on al C o s t s of th e T o t a l M a x i mu m D a i l y L oad Pro g ram

O ffi c eo f W a t e r U. S . En vi r o n m en t a lP r ot ect i o n Agen cy
Augus t1, 2001

### TABLE O F CO NTENTS E x ec u t iv e S u mmar y .......................................................... i I
. I nt r o du c t i o n ........................................................ . 1 II
. B ac kg r o u n d

– I m p a i r e d W a t e r s U n d e r t h e C lea n W a t e r A c t ..................... . 3 T h e C lea n W a t e r A c t .................................................. . 3 C u rr e nt T M D L P r o g r a m R e gu l a t i o n s ...................................... . 5 C it i ze n S u it s f o r T M D L I m p le m e nt a t i o n ................................... . 6 T h e T M D L F e d e r a l A d v i s o r y C o mmitt e e ................................... . 7 J u l y 2000 T M DL P r o g r a m R e gu l a t i o n R e v i s i o n s ............................. . 8 III. C u rr e nt E ff o r t s t o Pr o t ec t a n d R e s t o r e t h e N a t i o n ’ s W a t e rs .................... . 1 0 I V
. D e f in in g T o da y ’ s W a t e r P o ll u t i o n P r o b le m s - - T h e 1998 §303 ( d) L i s t s .......... . . 1 2 V
. A d min i s t r a t iv e C o s t s t o D e v e l o p T M D L s .................................. . 1 4 T h e C o s t o f L i s t in g I m p a i r e d W a t e r s ..................................... . 1 4 T h e C o s t o f D e v e l o p in g T M D L s ........................................ . 1 5 F e d e r a l S h ar e o f T M D L D e v e l o p m e nt C o s t s ............................... . 2 2 V I
. C o s t s t o P o ll u t a nt S o u r ce s t o I m p le m e nt T M D L s ............................ . 2 4 M e t h o d o l o g y – T h r e e S ce n ar i o s ........................................ . . 2 8 E s t ima t ed P o ll u t i o n C o nt r o l C o s t s f o r P o ll u t a nt S o u r ces U n der t h e T h r ee S ce n ar i o s . . 3 2 A PP E ND I C E S : O t h e r M a tt e r s o f I nt e r e s t t o C o n g r e s s .................... A pp e n d ix A

- 1 SU PPO R T IN G R E PO R T S: E n v i r o n o m i cs an d T et r a T ech , I n c. , T h e National Cos t s to Develop T M DL s , pr epar ed f o r t h e U. S
. E P A , Of f i ce o f W e t l an ds , Ocean s an d W a t e r s h e ds , dr af t J u l y , 2001 E n v i r o n o m i cs an d T et r a T ech , I n c. , The N ational C os ts to I m

plement TM DLs , pr epar ed f o rt h e U. S
. E P A , Of f i ce o f W e t l an ds , Ocean s an d W a t e r s h e ds , dr af t J u l y , 2001

### E x ecu t i v e S u m ma ry
Mo st A m er i can s agr ee t h at t h e qual i t y

o f t h e Nat i o n ’ s r iv e r s , l akes an d co ast a l wat e r s h a s imp r o v e d d r a ma t ic a lly o v e r t h e p a s t 3 0 ye ar s . T his r e mar k ab le imp r o v e me nt in t h e N a t i o n ’ s r iv e r s , l akes, an d co ast a l wat e r s was le d b y go v e r n m e nt s at t h e f e der a l , st at e, t r i b al an d l o cal le v e l b u t co ul d n o t h a v e b een acco m p l

i s h e d wit h o u t t h e h ar dwo r k o f cit i zen s an d t h e sust ain e d fin a n c ia l c o mmit me nt o f t h e p r iv a t e s e c t o r . At t h e s a me t ime , t h e r e is a

r e c o g n it io n t h a t s o me w a t e r p o llu t i o n p r o b le ms r e ma in t o b e addr es s e d. I n 1998, s t at es r e po r t ed n ear l y

22, 000 in div i dual wat e rb o di es in cl udin g r iv e ran d st r eam segm ent s , l akes, an d est u ar i e s t h at do n o t at t a in st at e ado p t e d wat e rqual it y st an dar d s. T h es e im p ai r e d wat e r s in cl ude 300, 000 mile s o f r iv e r s a n d c o a s t a l s h o r e lin e a n d ap p r o x ima t e ly 5 millio n a c r e s o f lak e s , r e p r e s e nt in g ab o u t o n e - t hir d o f t h e le n g t h / a c r e a g e o f a ll w a t e r s in t h e U
. S
. wh o s e qual it y h a s b een assessed, an d ab o u t 10 % o f all t h e wat e r s Nat i o n wi de. Def in in g po l i c i e s an d pr o g r a m s t h at s u s t ain t h e qual it y o f wat e rr e s o ur ces an d r e s t o r in g t h e h eal t h

o f t h o s e wat e r s t h at ar e im p ai r e d i s a co m p le xpr o b le m . T h e Clean W a t e rA c t pr o v i d es a s t ur dy f

o un dat i o n o f co r e wat e rqual it y pr o g r a m s , b u t t h e im p le m e nt at i o n o f t h es e pr o g r a m s b y t h e E n v i r o n m ent a l P r o t ect i o n A g en cy ( E P A ) , st at es, t r i b es, an d o t h e r s i s t h e sub j ect o f co nt r o v e r s y . Ov ert h e past sev e r a l y ear s, t h er e h a s b een co n s i d er ab le deb a t e o v ert h e b e st appr o ach t o r e st o r in g im p ai r e d wat e r s an d t h e co st s o f v ar i o u s appr o ach es t o t hi s t a sk. I n r e s p on s e to thi s d e b a te , C o n g r e s s d i r e c t e dth e E P A to s t u d y th e c o s t s of im p le m e nt in g th e T o ta l M a x imu m D a ily L o a d o r “ T M D L ”p r o g r a m.
K e y F i ndings T his R e p o r t r e s p o n d s t o C o n g r e s s ’ r e q u e s t fo rin fo r ma t io n o n t h e c o s t s o f imp le me nt in g p o llu t i o n c o nt r o l me a s u r e s t o d e v e lo p a n dimp le me nt T M D L s . Ke y fin d in g s o f t h e R e p o r t ar e - - 1) C o s ts to P o llutant Sour ces to I m

plement the TM DL P r ogr am R ange f r

om Under $1 B illion/Y e ar to $4. 3 B illion/Y e ar De pe nding on E f f

i c i e n c y of TMDLs

– T h e c o s t o f me a s u r e s t o imp le me nt T M D L s fo rimp a i r e d w a t e r s n o w id e nt ifie d b y s t at es i s es t ima t e d t o b e b e t w een $900 millio n a n d $ 3
. 2 b illio n p e rye arif t h e pr o b le m i s appr o ach ed t h r o ugh t h e im p le m e nt at i o n o f T M DL s t h at seek t h e l o west c o s t a l t e rn a t iv e s a m o n g a ll s o u r c e s o f t h e im p a i rm e nt s (s e e Tab le ES-I).

– I f t h e T M DLpr o g r a m was im p le m e nt ed b a sed o n an assessm ent o f t h e r e duct i o n n eeded f o rt h e wat e rb o dy an d an all o cat i o n t h at in cl udes all so ur ces o f im p ai r m ent , wit h o u t st r i ct at t e nt i o n t o t h e m o st co st
- e f f ect iv e all o cat i o n s , co st s w o u l d b e e xp e c t e d t o r i s e t o b e t w e e n $ 1 b illio n a n d $ 3
. 4 b illio n p e rye ar .

i– I n t h e ev ent t h at t h e im p ai r e d wat e r s wer e addr essed usin g a least f lex i b le T M DL s c e n ar io c o s t s mig ht r i s e t o a s hi g h a s $ 1
. 9b illio n a n d $ 4
. 3 b illio n p e rye ar . U n d e r t h is u n lik e l y s c e n ar io , r e g ar d le s s o f t h e in d iv i d u a l c o nt r i b u t i o n s o f d iffe r e nt s o ur ces , s t at es wo ul d s im p l

y

t i ght e n di s c h ar g e per m it s an d o t h e rn a t i o n al r e qui r e m e nt s t h r o ugh a un if o r m an d in f lex i b le appr o ach
. T hi s s cen ar i o wo ul d n o t b e n e fit fr o m s it e - s p e c ific t a ilo r in g t o lo c a l c o n d it io n s t h a t s h o u ld r e s u lt fr o m dev e l o pm ent o f a m o r e car ef ul

all o cat i o n .

– W h e n a m o der a t e l y

co st
- e f f ect iv e T M DLpr o g r a m , whi c h l o o k s f o rr eadil y av ail ab le co st ef f ect iv e so l u t i o n s, i s used t o all o cat e po ll u t i o n r e duct i o n r e s p o n s i b ilit ie s , t h e c o s t s fo r both po int an d n o np o int so ur ces ar e r e duced.

– T h e n o np o int po ll u t i o n co nt r o l m easur es expect ed t o b e im plem ent e d un dereach o p t i o n wo ul d gen e r a t e s o m e par t l y

o f f s et t in g co s t s a v in g s ( e . g . b y r e ducin g t h e f r equen c y o f appl i cat i o n an d t h e am o u nt o f f

e r t il i zerused) , b u t t h ese specif i c s a ving s c o u l dno t be c a lc u l a t e d
. Ta b l e ES - 1 E s tim a te d C o s t s f o r P o l l u tant Sour c e s to I m pl e m e n t T M D L s

T y pe of Sour c e A nnualC o s t s ( 2000 $ in m i l l i ons ) Lea s tFl ex i b l e T M DL P r ogr am Mo d e r a t e l y C o s t-e f f e c t iv e TM DL P r ogr am Mo r e C o s t Ef f ect i v e TM DL P r ogr am Po int s o ur ces 1, 082 - 2, 178 812 - 1, 634 625 - 1, 321 No n p o int s o ur ces 783 - 2, 162 234 - 1, 791 281 - 1, 869 T o t a lim pl em ent a t i on cos t s 1 , 865 - 4, 340 1, 046 - 3, 425 906 - 3, 190 Po t e nt i a l s a v in g s f o rn o n p o int s o ur ces un det e r m in ed un det e r m in ed un det e r m in ed
2) T h e aver age annual cos ts of developing T M DL s , pr imar ily by s tates , over the next 15 year s is es timated to be between $63- 69 million per year , nation w i de.

– I t w ill c o s t ap p r o x ima t e ly $ 1 b illio n o v e r 1 0 t o 1 5 ye ar s fo r t h e 3 6 , 000 T M DL s in t h e o v er20, 000 wat e rb o di es kn o w n t o b e im p ai r e d. T h ese co st s co ul d b e hi gh er o rl o werb y 10% , depen d in g o n t h e pace t h at st at es ado p t t h e m o st ef f i ci ent appr o ach es t o dev e l o p T M DL s .

ii– T h e av er age co st o f dev e l o pin g t h e T M DL s f o reach o f t h e r o ugh l y

20, 000 im p ai r e d wat e rb o di es i s es t ima t e d t o b e ab o u t $52, 000, wit h a t y pi cal r a n g e o f co s t s b e t w een $26, 000 an d o v er$500, 000.

– E P A e xp e c t s t h a t s t a t e s w ill in c r e a s e t h e nu mb e r o f T M D L s d e v e lo p e d each y ear , s p en din g ab o u t $30 millio n in t h e ye ar 2000, $43- 48 millio n in 2002, an d ab o u t $68- 75 millio n s t ar t in g in 2005 an d each y eart h er eaf t e runt il 2015.

– T h e co st est ima t e i s b a sed o n t h e un it co st s t y pi cal f

o rt h e ma j o r it y o f T M DL s. E P A est ima t e s t h at o n l y

2- 5% o f t h e T M DL s n a t i o n all y

m i g ht h a v e co st s in ex cess o f

t h e r a n g e o f co st s used in t hi s an al y s i s whi c h , t o t h e ex t e nt t h at t h ese pr o v e t o h a v e suf f i ci ent l y

hi gh erco st s, m i g ht in cr ease t h e n a t i o n al T M DLdev e l o pm ent co s t s b y per h aps 10 t o 20%
.

– T h e co st s o f T M DLdev e l o pm ent cit e d in t h e Repo r t ar e b a sed o n co m p l

i a n ce wit h t h e cur r e nt r e gul at i o n s in cl udin g t h e T M DLr e gul at i o n s pub l i s h e d in J u l y

2000. T h e co s t s o f t h e addi t i o n al r e qui r e m e nt s as s o ci at ed wit h t h e J u l y

2000 r e gul at i o n s r e p r e s e nt le s s th a n 1 0 % of th e tota ld e v e l o p m e nt c o s t s e s tima te d in thi s r e p o r t . T h e J u l y

2000 r e gul at i o n s added r e qui r e m e nt s t h at in cr eas ed t h e co s t s t o dev e l o p T M DL s b u t di d n o t add addit i o n al r e qui r e m e nt s, o rt h er ef o r e co st s, t o im plem ent TM D L s .

– I t i s expect ed t h at t echn i cal assi st an ce t h at i s r o ut in el y

pr o v i d ed b y o t h e r go v e r n m e nt al agen ci es, such as t h e U. S
. Depar t m e nt o f A g r i cul t ur e, will exper i en ce in cr eased dema n das a r e sul t o f t h e T M DLpr o g r a m . But E P A h a s n o t est ima t e d t h at co st . 3) The cos t of w a ter quality monitor i ng to s upport the development of TM DLs is expected to be appr oximately $17 million per year .

– E P A ma d e a

p r e limin ar y e s t ima t e o f a d d i t i o n a l mo n it o r in g n e e d e dfo r T M D L d e v e lo p m e nt fr o m a

limit e d s u r v e y o f s t a t e e xp e r i e n c e s t o d a t e . T his e s t ima t e n eeds t o b e r e v i sed as st at es gain m o r e exper i en ce wi t h

T M DLdev e l o pm ent . 4) Clus ter i ng T M DL s thr ough a w a ter s h ed appr oach to development of T

M DL s can s i gnif i cantly r e duce the cos t s of developing TM DLs and implementing the r e s u lting pollution contr o l meas ur es .

– E P A ev al uat e d t h e ex t e nt t o whi c h im p ai r e d wat e r s l i s t e d b y st at es f a ll int o l o gi cal geo g r aphi c cl us t e r s f o rt h e pur po s e o f dev e l o pin g T M DL s an d co n c l uded t h at as ma ny as 80% o f t h e wat e rb o di es n a t i o n all y

co ul d r eal i ze co st
- e f f i ci en ci es f r o m d e v e lo p in g T M D L s jo int l y. T h e c o s t a n a l ys is a s s u me s t h a t s t a t e s w ill in c r e a s in g l y b e ab le t o r eal i ze t h ese ef f i ci en ci es o v era 5- 10 y eart r an sit i o n per i o d , r e sul t in g in a iiin a t i o n al av er age o f 60- 70% o f t h e wat e rb o d i e s achi e v in g co st ef f i ci en ci es f r o m cl

us t e r in g . T h e an al y s i s es t ima t e s t h at t h e 36, 000 T M DL s w ill b e d e v e lo p e din ab o u t 6, 000 t o 8, 000 s u b m i s s i o n s av er agin g 5- 6 T M DL s pers u b m i s s i o n . T h es e ma y co n s i s t o f as f e w as o n e T M DLpersub m i ssi o n t o m o r e t h an 30 T M DL s in each b u t av er agin g 5- 6 T M DL s persub m i ssi o n .

– T h e dev e l o pm ent o f m o r e co st
- e f f ect iv e T M DL s o n a wat e r s h e d b a si s cr eat es o p p o r t u n it ie s t o s h ift p o llu t i o n c o nt r o l r e s p o n s i b ilit ie s fr o m hi g h c o s t c o nt r o ls o v e r po int so ur ce di sch ar g es t o co m p ar at iv el y

l o w co st co nt r o l s o v ern o np o int so ur ces. S a v in g s a t t r ib u t ab le t o t his e ffic i e nt a llo c a t io n o f p o llu t i o n c o nt r o l r e s p o n s i b ilit ie s ar e es t ima t e d t o b e b e t w een $140 - $235 millio n p e rye ar .

– I n c r eased co st s t o n o n p o int so ur ces t h at ma y o ccurwh en t h e m o r e co st ef f ect iv e so l u t i o n s ar e im p le m e nt ed ar e m o r e t h an o f f s et b y sav in g s t o po int so ur ces. 5) E P

A pr ovides s ubs tantial f unding to the s tates f o r management of the f u ll r ange of C l ean W

a ter A c t pr ogr ams .

– U sin g t h e hi gh en d o f t h e r a n g e o f co st s f o rco r e T M DLdev e l o pm ent , an d T M DL r e l a t e d m o n i t o r in g , an d assum in g a f u r t h e r10- 20% co st in cr ease t o acco unt f o r par t i c ul ar l y

hi gh co st T M DL s, t o t a l T M DLdev e l o pm ent co st s ar e expect ed t o b e as m u ch as $65- 74 millio n in 2002, r i s in g t o ab o u t $92- 107 millio n a n nu a lly in 2005 t h r o ugh 2015.

– I n F Y 2001, t h e r e s o ur ces av ail ab le t o s t at es t o dev e l o p T M DL s in cl ude:

– Fun din g Un derSect i o n 106 W a t e rPr o g r a m Gr ant s – Fu n d in g f o r im p le m e nt at i o n gr ant s un dert hi s co r e wat e rpr o g r a m in cr eas ed f r o m $115 millio n in F Y 2000 t o $170 millio n in F Y 2001, wit h an in di cat i o n f

r o m t h e C o n g r e s s t h at t h e $55 millio n in c r e a s e w a s a s s o c i a t e d w it h t h e T M D L p r o g r a m co st s.

– Fun din g Un derSect i o n 319 No np o int Po ll u t i o n C o nt r o l Gr ant s – Fu n d in g fo rimp le me nt a t io n o f s t a t e n o np o int p o llu t i o n c o nt r o l p r o g r a ms in c r e a s e d f r o m $200 millio n in F Y 2000 t o $237 millio n in F Y 2001. E P A h a s pr o v i d ed t h at s t at es ma y us e up t o 20% o f t hi s f u n d in g ( i
. e . ab o u t $47 millio n ) t o d e v e lo p T M D L s .

– P l a nning Fu nd s f r o m S t a t e R e vo lv in g L o a n Fu nd s G r a nt s - - U n d e r s e c t i o n 604( b ) ( 3 ) o f t h e C lean W a t e rA c t , s t at es ma y us e up t o o n e per cent o f gr ant f u n d s ( o r$100, 000, whi c h e v e ri s gr eat er ) f o rpl an n in g an d r e l a t e d pur po s e s , in cl udin g dev e l o pm ent o f T M DL s . I n F Y 2001, t h e t o t a l f u n d in g av ail ab le un dert hi s aut h o r it y was $14 millio n . iv– I n F Y 2001, E P A expect s t o in v e s t ab o u t $21. 7 millio n in ma n a g e me nt o f t h e cur r e nt T M DLpr o g r a m . A b o u t $10 millio n o f t his fu n d in g is a v a ilab le t o E P A R e gi o n s as co nt r act f u n d s t o s uppo r t dev e l o pm ent o f T M DL s at t h e r e ques t o f a st at e o rwh er e a st at e do es n o t dev e l o p a T M DLcalle d f o rin a co n s ent decr ee.

– E P A expect s t h ese f u n d in g le v e l s t o b e ma int a in ed, o rt o in cr ease sl i g ht l y

in cr ease in

F Y 2002.

v

### I. In t r o d u c t i o n T h e 1972 C lean W a t e rA c t es t ab l i s h e d a b l uepr int f o ra s u s t ain e d ef f o r t b y go v e r n m e nt at all le v e l s an d t h e pr iv at e sect o rt o pr o t ect an d r e st o r e t h e qual i t y

o f t h e Nat i o n ’ s wat e r s . I m plem ent a t i o n o f t h e r a n g e o f pr o g r a m s aut h o r i zed in t h e A c t o v ert h e past 30 y ear s h a s r e sul t ed in

dr amat i c im p r o v e m e nt s t o t h e qual it y o f r iv e r s , l akes, wet l an ds, an d co ast a l wat e r s acr o ss t h e c o u nt r y. T o d a y, a s i g n ific a nt p o r t io n o f t h e N a t i o n ’ s w a t e r s me e t t h e “ s w immab le , fis h ab le ”g o a l s s e t ou t in th e C le a n W a te r A c t. T h e success o f wat e rpo ll u t i o n co nt r o l pr o g r a m s i s causin g a gr adual ch an ge in t h e ap p r o a c h t o w a t e r p o llu t i o n c o nt r o l. I n t h e p a s t , w a t e r p o llu t i o n p r o b le ms w e r e c o mmo n a n d e a s ily id e nt ifie d
. B r o a d , n a t i o n a l p r o g r a ms w e r e w e ll s u it e d t o r e me d yin g p r o b le ms a n d p r e v e nt in g fu r t h e r d e c lin e in w a t e r q u a lit y. T o d a y, ma ny o f t h e mo s t o b v i o u s p r o b le ms h a v e b e e n s o lv e d
. D e s p it e t his p r o g r e s s , s e r i o u s w a t e r p o llu t i o n p r o b le ms r e ma in
. T h e s e p r o b le ms p r o mis e t o b e m o r e dif f i cul t t o so lv e b ecause t h ey ar e dr iv en b y specif i c l o cal co n d it i o n s an d ar e caused b y a wi derar r a y o f so ur ces. T o m eet t h e wat e rpo ll u t i o n ch alle n g es o f t o day , go v e r n m e nt , t h e pr iv at e sect o r , an d ci t i zen s ar e in cr easin gl y

askin g t w o key quest i o n s –
• h o w do we b e s t ma int a in pas t pr o g r e s s an d pr o t ect t h e ma j o r it y o f wat e r s wi t h go o dwat e rqual it y ?an d,
• h o w do we b e st i d ent if y

each o f t h e r e ma in in g wat e rb o di es t h at do n o t m eet clean w a te r g o a l s ( i
. e . w a te r s th a t d o n o t a tta in s t a t e w a te r q u a l it ys t a n d ar d s ) a n d imp le me nt c o s t
- e ffe c t iv e r e me d i e s fo r t h e m ? Thi s r e po r t addr es s e s t h e ques t i o n o f h o w t o b e gin t o co r r ect t h e r e ma in in g wat e r p o llu t i o n p r o b le ms t h r o u g h o u t t h e c o u nt r y in t h e mo s t c o s t
- e ffe c t iv e ma n n e r . I t is in d i r e c t r e s p o n s e t o a r e ques t co nt ain e d in t h e C o n f er en ce R e po r t #106- 988 des c r i b in g t h e VA /HUD an d I n depen d ent A g en ci es A ppr o p r i at i o n s A c t f o rF Y 2001. T h at C o n f er en ce R e po r t calle d o n E P A t o pr o v i d e a “ c o m pr eh en siv e assessm ent ” o f b o t h dev e l o pm ent an d im p le m e nt at i o n co st s o f t h e “ T o t al Max im u m Dail y

L o ad” ( T MDL ) pr o g r a m . A l t h o ugh so m e aspect s o f t h ese i ssues wer e addr es s e d in t h e eco n o m i c an al y s i s pr epar ed f o rt h e J u l y

2000 T M DL r e gul at i o n s , ma ny in div i dual s an d o r gan i zat i o n s ar e int e r e st ed in a m o r e co m p r e h e n s iv e r e v i ew o f co st s an d r e l a t e d co n s i d er at i o n s t h an t h at r e qui r e d f o rt h e dev e l o pm ent o f t h e J u l y

2000 r e gul at i o n s . T h e co st s o f dev e l o pin g an d im p le m e nt in g T M DL s sh o u l dappr o p r i at el y

b e co n s i d er ed wi t hin t h e co nt ex t o f t h e o v er all ef f o r t t o pr o t ect an d r e st o r e wat e rqual i t y

un dert h e Clean W a t e r A c t . T h e T M D L p r o g r a m is n o t a n e n din it s e lf -

- it is a

t o o l t o h e lp o r g a n i z e in fo r ma t io n a n d make deci s i o n s r e gar d in g h o w b e s t t o r e s p o n d t o im p ai r e d wat e r s t o b e gin t o t ake t h e n eces s ar y s t e p s t h a t w ill e v e nt u a lly le a d t o a t t a in in g t h e w a t e r q u a lit y s t a n d ar d s a d o p t e d b y t h e s t a t e s o r r e v i sin g t h o s e st an dar d s t o m o r e accur a t e l y

r e f lect l o cal co n d it i o n s . T M DL s f it wit hin t h e co nt inuum en v i si o n ed b y t h e Clean W a t e rA c t o f desi gn at in g uses f o rt h e v ar i o u s wat e r s in a st at e, assi gn in g wat e rqual i t y

cr i t er i a f

o rt h ese uses, m o n i t o r in g t o det e r m in e wh et h e rwat e r qual it y st an dar d s ar e m e t , an d if t h ey ar e n o t , t akin g t h e pr o p eraddit i o n al act i o n s calle d f o rb y t h e specif i c co n d it i o n s in t h at wat e r s h e d. 1A f t e rdescr i b in g t h e o v er all co nt ex t o f clean wat e rpr o g r a m s , t hi s r e po r t est ima t e s t h e co s t s t o dev e l o p T M DL s , in cl udin g t h e co s t s o f m o n i t o r in g r e l a t e d t o T M DLdev e l o pm ent . T h i s r e po r t co m p ar es t h ese r e sul t s t o act ual exper i en ces o f st at es an d E P A t o dat e . T h e r e po r t al so e s t ima t e s t h e imp le me nt a t io n c o s t s u n d e r v ar i o u s T M D L p r o g r a m s c e n ar io s fo r p o llu t i o n s o u r c e s t o achi e v e r e duced di sch ar g es co n s i s t e nt wit h T M DL s. I n addit i o n , as r e qui r e d b y Co n f er en ce R e po r t #106- 988, eco n o m i c an al y s i s i s s u es r a i s ed b y t h e C o m p t r o lle rGen e r a l ar e addr es s e d ( s ee A

ppen d ix A )
. I n

Decem b e ro f 2000, E P A pub l i s h e d a n o t i ce in t h e F e der a l Regi s t eras kin g f o r in f o r mat i o n o n T M DLpr o g r a m co st s. E P A r eceiv e d appr o x ima t e l y

90 co m m

e nt s. T w elv e st at e agen ci es in ch ar ge o f t h e T M DLpr o g r a m pr o v i d ed in f o r mat i o n o n t h ei rco st s, m o st l y

t o dev e l o p T M DL s, an d 7 st at e agen ci es in v o lv ed in im p le m e nt at i o n pr o v i d ed so m e in f o r mat i o n o n t h ei r co st s. Mo st co m m

e nt s sub m it t e d b y po int an d n o np o int po ll u t i o n so ur ces pr o v i d ed o n e o rt w o ex am ples o f co st l y

T M DL s. On e co m m

e nt erpr esent e d co m p r e h e n s iv e im p le m e nt at i o n co st s f o r NP DE S di sch ar g er s. T h ese co m m

e nt s, as well as exper i en ced exper t s en gaged in dev e l o pm ent a n dimp le me nt a t io n o f T M D L s w e r e c o n s id e r e din t h e d e v e lo p m e nt o f t his r e p o r t .

2

### II. Back gro u n d – Im p a i red Wat ers Un d er t h e Cl ean Wat er Act A

b r i e f r e v i ew o f t h e st at ut o r y b a si s f o rt h e T M DLpr o g r a m an d t h e hi st o r y o f ef f o r t s t o r e v i ew an d r e v i se t h e pr o g r a m o v ert h e past sev e r a l y ear s pr o v i d es usef ul

b ackgr o u n df o r u n d e r s t a n d in g w h a t d e v e lo p in g a n dimp le me nt in g T M D L s e nt a ils
. T h e b a c k g r o u n din fo r ma t io n pr o v i d ed b e l o w addr es s e s s e v e r a l t o pi cs :
• t h e st at ut o r y b a si s in t h e Clean W a t e rA c t f o rr e spo n din g t o im p ai r e d wat e r s an d t h e r o le t h at t h e T M DLpr o g r a m , as des c r i b e d in §303( d) , pl ay s in t hi s ef f o r t ;
• t h e T M DLpr o g r a m r e gul at i o n s es t ab l i s h e d in 1985 an d am en ded in 1992 whi c h ar e cur r e nt l y

in ef f ect ;
• t h e lit ig a t io n c h a lle n g in g s t a t e a n d E P A imp le me nt a t io n o f t h e r e g u l a t io n s a n d t h e Ac t ;
• t h e F e der a l A d v i s o r y C o m m

it t ee t h at co n s i d er ed t h e T M DLpr o g r a m dur in g 1996 an d 1997 an d ma de r eco m m

e n d at i o n s f o rf u r t h e ract i o n s ;
• t h e am en dm ent s t o t h e T M DLr e gul at i o n s pr o p o s ed in Augus t o f 1999 an d pub l i s h e d in J u l y

2000 b u t n o t ef f ect iv e unt il Oct o b e r30, 2001, at t h e ear l i e s t . Th e Cl ean Wat e r Act T h e C le a n W a t e r A c t in c l u d e s a

nu mb e r o f p r o g r a ms a ime d a t imp r o v in g , ma int a in in g , a n d r e s t o r in g w a t e r q u a lit y, r a n g in g fr o m e fflu e nt limit s a n d p e r mit s fo r p o int s o u r c e d i s c h ar g e s a n d fu n d in g fo r s e w a g e t r e a t me nt fa c ilit ie s , t o s t a t e g r a nt s t o r e d u c e n o n p o int s o u r c e s o f p o llu t i o n . A s di s c us s e d b e l o w, t h es e pr o g r a m s ar e des i gn ed t o pr o v i d e gen e r a l pr o t ect i o n f

o rall wat e r s , t o def in e en v i r o n m ent a l go al s f o rt h e n a t i o n ’ s wat e r s , an d t o o f f e ra pr o cess f o rassur in g t h at wat e r s fa ilin g t o me e t t h e s e g o a l s w ill b e r e s t o r e d
. A n ear l y

go al f

o rt h e Nat i o n ’ s clean wat e rpr o g r a m was t h e im p le m e nt at i o n o f n a t i o n all y c o n s is t e nt p o llu t i o n c o nt r o ls fo r d i s c h ar g e s fr o m s e w a g e t r e a t me nt p l a nt s a n din d u s t r ia l fa c ilit ie s . T h ese co nt r o l s wer e det e r m in ed b a sed o n assessm ent o f t h e b e st t r eat m e nt t echn o l o gy av ail ab le an d af f o r d ab le . I n st all a t i o n o f po ll u t i o n co nt r o l s t h at wo ul d m eet t h ese n a t i o n al per f o r ma n c e s t a n d ar d s w a s a s s u r e d t h r o u g h t h e N a t i o n a l P o llu t a nt D i s c h ar g e E limin a t io n S y s t e m ( N P D E S ) per m i t pr o g r a m un der§402 o f t h e A c t . M o s t s e wage t r eat m e nt pl ant s an d in dus t r i a l f

ac ilit ie s ha ve p e r m i t s r e q u i r ing ba s i ct r e a t m e nto f d i s c har g e s c o ns i s t e ntw i t h

t h e s e na t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e nt s . W hile m u ch o f t h e ear l y

f

o cus o f t h e clean wat e rpr o g r a m was o n dev e l o pm ent o f d i s c h ar g e p e r mit s , t h e A c t a l s o c a lle dfo r e ffo r t s t o imp le me nt b a s i c c o nt r o ls o f r u n o ff o r p o llu t i o n f r o m “ n o n po int ” s o ur ces . Un der§208 o f t h e A c t , f e der a l , s t at e an d l o cal go v e r n m e nt s wo r k ed t o get h ert o dev e l o p ar ea- wi de pl an s t h at wo ul d r e duce po int an d n o n p o int s o ur ce po ll u t i o n . T h e ef

f o r t t o r e duce n o np o int s o ur ce po ll u t i o n was expan d ed b y t h e cr eat i o n o f §319 in t h e 1987 am en dm ent s t o t h e A c t . T h e 1987 am en dm ent s al s o pr o v i d ed f o rexpan d ed ef f o r t s t o co nt r o l 3d i sch ar g er s o f st o r m w a t e r b y b r in g in g t h e m o st si g n if i cant d i sch ar g er s w it hin t h e sco p e o f t h e N P D E S p e r mit p r o g r a m. T h e Clean W a t e rA c t in cl udes a seco n dt i ero f pr o t ect i o n f

o rt h e Nat i o n ’ s wat e r s . Un der §303 o f t h e A c t , s t at es ado p t wat e rqual i t y

s t an dar d s f o rt h ei rwat e r s an d E P A m u s t appr o v e t h o s e st an dar d s. S t at es f u r t h e rr e v i ew t h ei rst an dar d s at least ev er y t h r ee y ear s an d m o dif y

t h em , as appr o p r i at e. T h ese wat e rqual it y st an dar d s descr i b e t h e “ d esi g n a t e d use” o f t h e wat e ran d in cl ude b o t h gen e r a l , n ar r a t iv e cr it er i a an d nu m e r i cal , po ll u t a nt specif i c cr i t er i a t h at n eed t o b e at t a in ed t o pr o t ect t h e desi gn at ed use. W h er e t h e b a si c po ll u t i o n co nt r o l s appl i e d t o po int an d n o np oint s o u r c e s of w a te r p o ll u ti on d o n o t r e s u l t in th e a tta in m e nt of th e w a te r q u a l i t ys t a n d ar d s , t h e wat e rb o dy i s co n s i d er ed im p ai r e d. C o n g r e s s pr o v i d ed s p ecif i c m ech an i s m s f o rat t a in in g t h e s t an dar d s calle d f o rin §303. I n t h e case o f a wat e rb o dy f

o un d t o b e im p ai r e d b y a par t i c ul arpo ll u t a nt , t h e f i r s t , m o st di r ect r eco ur se i s t o i d ent if y

t h e per m it s t h at all o w t h e di sch ar g e o f t h at po ll u t a nt . Mo st specif i call y , §301( b ) ( 1 ) ( C ) o f t h e A c t r e qui r e s t h at each di s c h ar g e per m it in cl ude ef f l uent limit a t io n s a s n ecessar y t o assur e t h at t h e wat e rqual it y st an dar d s f o rt h e wat e rb o dy ar e m e t . Many o f t h e p e r mit s o r ig in a lly is s u e d t o d i s c h ar g e r s fo c u s e d o n n a t i o n a lly ap p lic ab le r e q u i r e me nt s b u t d i d n o t in c l u d e limit s n e e d e d t o a s s u r e t h a t t h e s it e - s p e c ific w a t e r q u a lit y s t a n d ar d s w o u l d b e a t t a in e d
. I n r ecent y ear s, E P A an d st at es t h at h a v e b een aut h o r i zed t o i ssue Clean W a t e rA c t per m it s, h a v e in cr easin gl y

i ssued per m it s t h at in cl ude t h ese “ w at erqual it y - b a sed” l im it at i o n s , an d t h ese per m it s h a v e h e l p ed r e duce degr adat i o n o f wat e rqual it y an d v i o l at i o n o f wat e rqual it y s t an dar d s . T h e C le a n W a t e r A c t p e r mit is s u in g au t h o r it y ( i
. e . t h e E P A o ra st at e aut h o r i zed t o i ssue C le a n W a t e r A c t p e r mit s ) c a n r e v i s e t h e p e r mit s t o in c l u d e w a t e r q u a lit y- b a s e dlimit s r e s u lt in g in addit i o n al po ll u t i o n co nt r o l s pur s u ant t o §301( b ) ( 1 ) ( C ) o f t h e A c t . F o rex am ple, a po r t i o n o f a r iv e ris fo u n d t o h a v e c h r o miu m in e x c e s s o f t h e w a t e r q u a lit y c r it e r ia fo r c h r o miu m. T h e s t a t e i d ent if i es ch r o m i u m in t h e di sch ar g e f r o m a t a n n e r y . T h e t a n n e r y i s in co m p l

i a n ce wi t h

t h e b a si c t r e a t me nt r e q u i r e me nt , b u t t h e p e r mit is r e v i s e d t o in c l u d e w a t e r q u a lit y- b a s e dlimit s r e q u i r in g f u r t h e rr e duct i o n s in t h e di sch ar g e o f ch r o m i u m n eeded t o at t a in t h e wat e rqual it y st an dar d
. I n ma ny c a s e s , u s e o f t h e s e “ W a t e r Q u a lit y- B a s e d E fflu e nt L imit s ”( W Q B E L s ) h a v e e n ab le d a t t a in me nt o f w a t e r q u a lit y s t a n d ar d s . Un f o r t un at el y , ma ny o f t h e wat e rpo ll u t i o n pr o b le m s ar o u n dt h e co unt r y ar e t h e r e sul t o f mu lt ip le p o llu t a nt s c o min g t o a w a t e r b o d y fr o m a

r a n g e o f p o int a n d n o np o int s o u r c e s . I n t h e s e cases, t h e b a si c r e qui r e m e nt t h at a NP DE S di sch ar g e per m it n o t r e sul t in v i o l at i o n o f a wat e r qual i t y

s t an dar d( i
. e . , §301( b ) ( 1 ) ( C ) ) s t ill ap p lie s . T h e s imp le ap p lic a t io n o f t his r e q u i r e me nt , h o w e v e r , c o u l d r e s u lt in imp o s in g s i g n ific a nt p o llu t i o n c o nt r o l b u r d e n s o n a

s in g le d i s c h ar g e r w h e n a

g r o u p o f d i s c h ar g e r s is c au s in g t h e p r o b le m. I t c o u l d a l s o r e s u lt in imp o s in g s i g n ific a nt po ll u t i o n co nt r o l b u r d en s o n a gr o up o f po int s o ur ce di s c h ar g er s wh en b o t h NPDE S di s c h ar g es an d n o np o int so ur ces co nt r i b u t e t o a pr o b le m , ev en if

m easur es t o r e duce n o n p o int po ll u t i o n co ul d b e si gn if i cant l y

ch eapert h an po int so ur ce co nt r o l s . I n addit i o n , if n o np o int so ur ces, in t h e aggr egat e, ar e t h e ma j o rso ur ces o f t h e po ll u t a nt s, po int so ur ce co nt r o l s al o n e ma y b e in adequat e to a tta in s t a n d ar d s .
4Co n g r e ss r eco gn i zed t h at assur in g t h e at t a in m e nt o f wat e rqual it y st an dar d s, especi all y

in t h e c a s e o f imp a i r e d w a t e r s , c a n in v o lv e mu lt ip le p o llu t a nt s , mu lt ip le s o u r c e s , a n dmu lt ip le s e g m e nt s o f aw a t e r b o d y . A l t h o u g hC o n g re s s n e v e r w a iv e d t h e re q u i re m e nt t h a t p e rm it s re s u l t in

at t a in m e nt o f wat e rqual it y s t an dar d s ( a s m e nt i o n e d ab o v e r e gar d in g §301( b ) ( 1 ( C ) ) , it cr eat ed t h e T M DLpr o g r a m in §303( d) o f t h e A c t . Sect i o n 303( d) call s f o rs t at es t o i d ent if y

im p ai r e d w a t e r s a n d , mo r e imp o r t a nt ly, o ffe r s a n ap p r o a c h t o a t t a in in g s t a n d ar d s in a

w a t e r b o d y o t h e r t h a n t h e s imp le t i g ht e n in g o f in d iv i d u a l d i s c h ar g e p e r mit limit s . I n e ffe c t , it a llo w s fo r a n assessm ent o f po ll u t i o n pr o b le m s o n a l ar g ergeo g r aph i c scale an d t h e dev e l o pm ent o f a pl an f

o r r e s t o r in g t h e h e a l t h

o f t h e w a t e r b o d y t h a t in c l u d e s a llo c a t io n o f p o llu t i o n c o nt r o l r e s p o n s i b ilit ie s t o a r a n g e o f po int an d n o n p o int so ur ces in t h e ma n n e rdeem ed m o st appr o p r i at e in t h e specif i c ci

r c um st an ce. S t at es an d int e r e st ed st akeh o l der s ar e ab le t o co n s i d erf act o r s such as r e l a t iv e co st
e ffe c t iv e n e s s o f p o llu t i o n c o nt r o l me a s u r e s , r e liab ilit y o f me a s u r e s , a n d e q u it y in d e v i s in g t h e s e p l a n s . T h e T M D L p r o g r a m o ffe r s s i g n ific a nt fle x ib ilit y in d e v i s in g r e me d i e s fo rimp a ir e d w a t e r b o d i e s , b u t it r e t a in s t h e b o t t o m lin e r e q u i r e me nt t h a t t h e T M D Lmu s t b e s e t a t a

le v e l t h a t w ill r e sul t in at t a in m e nt o f t h e wat e rqual it y st an dar dado p t e d b y t h e st at e. T h e C le a n W a t e r A c t g iv e s s t a t e s t h e le a d r e s p o n s i b ilit y fo r d e v e lo p in g lis t s o f imp a ir e d wat e r s an d dev e l o pin g T M DL s . E P A ’ s r o le in t h e pr o ces s i s t o s uppo r t s t at es an d t o r e v i ew an d appr o v e t h e l i s t s an d t h e T M DL s. E P A i s al so t o est ab l i s h a l i s t o ra T M DL in cer t a in cases, f o r ex am ple wh en it di sappr o v es o n e o rt h e o t h e rsub m it t e d b y a st at e. F in a ll y , al t h o ugh st at e ado p t e d wat e rqual i t y

st an dar d s expr ess so ci et y ’ s go al f

o rt h e h eal t h

o f a wat e rb o dy , t h e st an dar d s ar e n o t i r r e v o cab le . S t at es ma y r e v i se wat e rqual it y st an dar d s t o make t h em m o r e o r le ss pr o t ect iv e o f aquat i c sy st em s, sub j ect t o Clean W a t e r A c t pr o g r a m r e gul at i o n s an d E P A appr o v al
. F o rex am ple, a st at e ma y r e l a xa wat e rqual it y st an dar d wh en desi gn at ed uses can n o t b e at t a in ed o rt h e co st s o f at t a in in g t h em wo ul d cause wi despr ead s o c i a l a n d e c o n o mic d i s r u p t io n . T h is s p e c ific p r o v is io n ma y in c l u d e c o mp le t in g a

u s e a t t a in ab ilit y an al y s i s o f t h e im p ai r e d wat e ran d it s desi gn at ed st an dar do rim p le m e nt in g a sit e - s pecif i c o r so ur ce- specif i c v ar i an ce in o r dert o av o i d si gn if i cant h ar m . T h er ef o r e, t h e CWA in cl udes a saf e t y v a lv e t o r eassess t h e go al s f o ran in div i dual wat e rb o dy wh en at t a in in g t h o s e go al s wo ul d o n l y co m e at an un accept ab le co st . T h i s caps t h e co st s an d o t h e rso ci al o reco n o m i c im p act t h at m i g ht b e in cur r e d eit h erun dera W Q BE L o ra T M DL f

o rpo ll u t a nt so ur ces af f ect in g an im p ai r e d wat e r b o dy
. Cur r e ntT M DL P r ogr amRegul a t i ons E P A i ssued r e gul at i o n s go v e r n in g i d ent if i cat i o n o f im p ai r e d wat e rb o di es an d es t ab l i s hm ent o f T M DL s , at 40 C F R§130. 7, in 1985 an d r e v i s e d t h em in 1992. T h es e r e gul at i o n s , whi c h ar e cur r e nt l y

in ef f ect , pr o v i d e t h at :
• P ur s u ant t o §303( d) , St at es m u s t per i o d i call y

l

i s t t h o s e wat e r s wh er e ex i s t in g po ll u t i o n co nt r o l s ar e n o t st r in g ent en o ugh t o at t a in an d ma int a in appl i cab le wat e r qual it y s t an dar d s ;
5• §303( d) l i s t s m u s t b e s u b m it t e d t o E P A ev er y t w o y ear s , b e gin n in g in 1992, o n A

p r il 1 o f ev er y ev en - num b e r e d y ear ;
• A p r io r it y r a nk in g fo rlis t e d w a t e r s mu s t in c l u d e a n id e nt ific a t io n o f t h e p o llu t a nt o rpo ll u t a nt s causin g o rexpect ed t o cause t h e im p ai r m ent an d an i d ent if i cat i o n o f t h e wat e rb o di es t ar g et ed f o rT M DLdev e l o pm ent in t h e n e x t t w o y ear s;
• S t a t e s , in d e v e lo p in g lis t s , mu s t a s s e mb le a n d e v a l u a t e a ll e x is t in g a n d r e a d ily a v a ilab le w a t e r q u a lit y- r e la t e d d a t a a n din fo r ma t io n ;
• S t a t e s m u st sub m it , wit h each l

i s t , t h e m e t h o d o l o g y used t o dev e l o p t h e l i s t an d pr o v i d e E P A wit h a r a t i o n ale f o rany deci si o n n o t t o use any ex i s t in g an d r eadil y a v a ilab le w a t e r q u a lit y- r e la t e d d a t a a n din fo r ma t io n ;a n d
• T MDL s m u st b e est ab l i s h e d at le v e l s n ecessar y t o im plem ent appl i cab le wat e r qual it y st an dar d s wit h seaso n al v ar i at i o n s an d a mar g in o f saf e t y t h at t akes int o acco unt any l ack o f kn o w le dge co n cer n in g t h e r e l a t i o n shi p b e t w een ef f l uent limit a t io n s a n d w a t e r q u a lit y. A

T M DLspecif i es t h e am o u nt o f a par t i c ul arpo ll u t a nt t h at ma y b e int r o duced int o a wat e rb o dy an d all o cat es t h e t o t a l all o wab le po ll u t a nt l o ads am o n g so ur ces, t h er eb y pr o v i d in g a r o ad map f o ref f o r t s t o at t a in an d ma int a in st at e wat e rqual it y st an dar d s. T M DL s ar e est ab l i s h e d f o r

w a t e rbo d y a n d p o ll u t a ntc o m b in a t i o ns f o r

w a t e rbo d i e s im p a i r e dby p o ints o u r c e s , no np o int so ur ces, o ra co m b in at i o n o f b o t h po int an d n o np o int so ur ces.
C i tiz e n Suits f o r T M D L I m pl e m e n ta tio n W hile t h e T M DLpr o v i s i o n s h a v e b een in §303( d) o f t h e C lean W a t e rA c t s in ce 1972, s t at es an d E P A di d n o t em ph as i ze im p le m e nt at i o n o f §303( d) unt il r e l a t iv e l y

r ecent l y . A s n o t e d ab o v e, dur in g t h e 1970s an d 1980s , t h e f o cus o f s t at e an d E P A ef f o r t s was t o es t ab l i s h p e r f o r ma n c e s t a n d ar d s fo rin d u s t r ia l d i s c h ar g e r s a n d s e w a g e t r e a t me nt fa c ilit ie s . A s a

r e s u lt , ma ny s t a t e lis t s o f w a t e r s n e e d in g a

T M D L w e r e limit e d t o a fe w w a t e r s a n d r e la t iv e ly fe w T M DL s wer e dev e l o ped. T h e Clean W a t e rA c t specif i call y

pr o v i d es t h at E P A h a s a dut y t o r e v i ew an d appr o v e t h e l i s t o f im p ai r e d wat e r s an d T M DL s sub m it t e d b y a st at e an d t o dev e l o p a l i s t an d/ o rT M DLwh er e a s t at e s u b m i s s i o n was di s appr o v ed. So m e s t at es di d n o t dev e l o p l i s t s o rT M DL s , y e t E P A di d n o t t ake a di sappr o v al act i o n n o rdev e l o p l i s t s o rT M DL s f o rt h o s e st at es. I n

t h e ear l y

1990' s , cit i zen o r gan i zat i o n s b e gan b r in gin g le gal act i o n s again s t E P A s eekin g t h e l i s t in g o f wat e r s an d est ab l i s hm ent o f T M DL s. On e ar gum ent ma de b y ma ny o f t h e o r gan i zat i o n s b r in gin g t h es e l a ws uit s was t h at , un der§303( d) , t h e f a il u r e t o s u b m i t any l

i s t o ran y T M DLco n s t it u t e d a “ c o n st r u ct iv e sub m i ssi o n ” o f n o l i s t o rT M DL
. T h e f a il u r e t o act was, at least in ef f ect , an act i o n t h at r e qui r e d an E P A r e spo n se. T h ey ar gued t h at E P A h a s a ma n d at o r y 6dut y un dert h e C lean W a t e rA c t t o act f o ra s t at e t h at do es n o t im p le m e nt §303( d)
. A l t h o ugh E P A o ppo sed t hi s ar gum ent in a nu m b ero f t h e ear l y

T M DL l a wsuit s , sev e r a l co ur t s accept e d it in v ar i o u s f o r m s an d r u le d t h at E P A h a d a dut y un dert h e C lean W a t e rA c t t o es t ab l i s h T M DL s in t h e f ace o f st at e in act i o n . T o dat e , en v i r o n m ent a l gr o ups h a v e f ile d ab o u t 40 le gal act i o n s in 38 s t at es . M o s t o f t h e l a ws ui t s h a v e b een f

ile d s in ce t h e m i d

- 1990s
. T h ey gen e r a ll y

ar gue t h at E P A m u s t es t ab l i s h T M DL s wh er e a S t at e f a il s t o do so . Ov er20 o f t h ese l a wsuit s h a v e r e sul t ed in co ur t o r der s o r co n s ent decr ees un derwhi c h E P A i s r e qui r e d t o est ab l i s h T M DL s if t h e S t at e f a il s t o do so in a t ime ly ma n n e r . B y t h e m i d

- 1990' s , t h e A g en cy in i t i a t e d a n e w ef f o r t wit h s t at es an d o t h e rs t akeh o l der s t o put t h e pr o g r a m o n a s o un derf o o t in g s o t h at co ur t s wo ul d b e le s s in cl in ed t o di r ect E P A t o est ab l i s h l

i s t s o f im p ai r e d wat e r s o rT M DL s wh er e st at es h a d n o t do n e so ( s ee di scussi o n o f T M D L F e d e r a l A d v i s o r y C o mmit t e e b e lo w )
. At t h e s a me t ime , E P A d e v e lo p e d a

c le ar e r s t a n d ar dfo r d e t e r min in g t h e s u ffic i e n c y o f s t a t e imp le me nt a t io n o f a

T M D L p r o g r a m in v o lv in g a t h

r ee par t t e st wh er e: 1) t h e st at e h a s est ab l i s h e d T M DL s; 2) t h e st at e h a s a pl an f

o rim p le m e nt in g T M DL s in t h e f u t u r e ; an d 3) t h e s t at e i s en gaged in an d s uppo r t in g t h e pl an .
Th e TM DL F e d e r a lAd vis o ry Com m i t t e e I n

1996, E P A det e r m in ed t h at t h er e was a n eed f o ra co m p r e h e n s iv e ev al uat i o n o f E P A ’ s an d t h e s t at es ’ im p le m e nt at i o n o f t h ei r§303( d) r e s p o n s i b ilit ie s . E P A c o n v e n e d a

c o mmit t e e un dert h e F e der a l A d v i so r y Co m m

it t ee A c t ( T MDL FA CA Co m m

it t ee) t o un der t ake such an e v a l u a t i o n a n dmak e r e c o mme n d a t io n s fo rimp r o v in g imp le me nt a t io n o f t h e p r o g r a m, in c l u d in g r eco m m

e n d ed ch an ges t o t h e T M DL r e gul at i o n s an d gui dan ce. T h e T M DL FA C A co m m

it t ee was co m p r i s e d o f 20 in div i dual s wit h div e r s e b ackgr o u n d s , in cl udin g agr i cul t ur e, f o r e st r y , en v i r o n m ent a l adv o cacy , in dust r y , an d st at e, l o cal , an d t r i b al g o ve r n m e nt s . On J u l y

28, 1998, t h e co mmit t e e s u b mit t e dit s fin a l r e p o r t t o E P A c o nt a in in g mo r e t h a n 100 co n s en s u s r eco m m

e n d at i o n s , a s u b s et o f whi c h wo ul d r e qui r e r e gul at o r y ch an ges . Ke y r eco m m

e n d at i o n s o f t h e FA CA in cl uded:
• r est o r in g im p ai r e d wat e rsh o u l db e a hi gh pr i o r i t y

f

o rall agen ci es an d so ur ces;
• a llT M D L s s h ou l d b e c o m p le te d e xp e d iti ou s l yb u t n o l a te rth a n 8

- 1 5 y e ar s a f te r l i s t in g acco r d in g t o a sch e dule dev e l o ped b y t h e st at e;
• t h e T M DLpr o cess sh o u l din cl ude key st eps such as t ar g et i d ent if i cat i o n , all o cat i o n o f

po ll u t i o n l o ads, an im p le m e nt at i o n pl an , an d ev al uat i o n pr o cedur es;

7• s t a t e s s h o u ld h a v e d i s c r e t i o n in mak in g a llo c a t io n s a m o n g s o u r c e s a s lo n g a s t h e a llo c a t io n w ill r e s u lt in t h e a t t a in me nt o f w a t e r q u a lit y s t a n d ar d s ;a n d
• s t akeh o l d er s sh o u l dpl ay an act iv e r o le in t h e T M DLpr o cess. T h e co m m

i t t ee was un ab le t o r each co n s en sus o n sev e r a l key i ssues, in cl udin g :
• w h e t h erim p le m e nt at i o n pl an s s h o u l db e r e qui r e d as par t o f t h e T M DLun der §303( d) o f t h e C WA o rr e qui r e d as par t o f t h e s t at e C o nt inuin g Pl an n in g Pr o ces s un der§303( e) ; an d,
• w h e t h e rTM D L s s h o u l d b e re q u i re d f o r w a t e rs im p a i re d b y a t m o s p h e ri c depo s it i o n . Jul y 2000 T M DL P r ogr amRegul a t i on Revis i ons B u ild in g o n t h e r e c o mme n d a t io n s o f t h e T M D L F e d e r a l A d v i s o r y C o mmit t e e , E P A dr af t e d r e v i s i o n s t o t h e ex i s t in g T M DLr e gul at i o n s an d pub l i s h e d pr o p o s ed T M DLpr o g r a m ch an ges o n Augus t 23, 1999. E P A en gaged in an ex t e n s iv e o u t r each an d in f o r mat i o n - s h ar in g ef

f o r t f o ll o win g t h e pub l i cat i o n o f t h e pr o p o s ed r u le . T h e A g en cy spo n so r e d an d par t i c i p at ed in s ix p u b l i c m e e t in g s n a ti on w i d e , to b e tte r in f o r m th e p u b l i c on th e c o nt e nts of th e p r op os e d r u le s , an d t o get in f o r mal f

eedb ack f r o m t h e pub l i c . T h ese m eet in gs t o o k pl ace in Den v e r , L o s A n gele s, At l a nt a, K a n s as Cit y , S eat t le, an d Man c h e st er , New Ham p shi r e. E P A r eceiv e d ab o u t 34, 000 c o m m

e nt s on th e p r op os a l
. T h e A g en cy al so co n s ul t e d wit h st at e an d l o cal o f f i ci al s an d t h ei rn a t i o n al / r egi o n a l o r gan i zat i o n s t h r o ugh o u t t h e dev e l o pm ent o f t hi s r u le . F o rex am ple, E P A m e t wit h o r gan i zat i o n s r e pr esent in g st at e an d l o cal elect ed o f f i ci al s in cl udin g : t h e Nat i o n al Go v e r n o r s’ A sso ci at i o n , t h e W e st er n Go v e r n o r s’ A sso ci at i o n , t h e Nat i o n al Co n f er en ce o f S t at e L e gi sl at ur es, t h e Nat i o n al A sso ci at i o n o f Co unt i es, t h e Nat i o n al L eague o f Cit i es an d E P A ’ s S t at e an d L o cal A d v i so r y Gr o up. On J u l y

13, 2000, E P A pub l i s h e d f in a l r e v i s i o n s t o t h e T M DLr e gul at i o n s . Ke y elem ent s o f

t h o s e r e gul at i o n s in cl ude:
• m o r e c o mp r e h e n s iv e lis t s o f a ll w a t e r b o d i e s t h a t d o n o t a t t a in a n dma int a in s t a t e wat e rqual it y st an dar d s wit h r e v i si o n o f t h e l i s t s ev er y 4 y ear s r a t h ert h an ev er y 2 y ear s;
• a sch e dule, b a sed o n pr i o r it y f

act o r s, f o rest ab l i s hin g all n eeded T M DL s o v er10 y ear s, wit h an all o wan ce f o ran o t h e rf iv e y ear s wh er e n ecessar y ;

8• a n enum er at i o n o f 11 specif i c elem ent s o f a T M DL , in cl udin g im p le m e nt at i o n pl an s t h at i d ent if y

l

i s t s o f act i o n s an d expedit i o u s sch e dules t o r e duce po ll u t a nt lo a d in g s a n d a t t a in w a t e r q u a lit y s t a n d ar d s ;
• r equi r e m e nt s f o rdo cum e nt at i o n o f “ r easo n ab le assur a n ce” t h at r e l i ab le n o n p o int s o u r c e c o nt r o ls w o u l d b e imp le me nt e d ;
• p r o m p t act i o n t o im p le m e nt n eeded po ll u t i o n co nt r o l s an d a go al o f m eet in g wat e r qual it y s t an dar d s wit hin 10 y ear s ;
• e xp a n d e d o p p o r t u n it ie s fo r p u b lic c o mme nt o n lis t in g me t h o d o l o g ie s , lis t s , pr i o r it i zed s c h e dules an d T M DL s pr i o rt o s u b m i s s i o n t o E P A ;
• s p e c ific t ime fr a m e s

u n d e r w hic h E P A w ill a s s u r e t h a t lis t o f imp a ir e d w a t e r s a n d T M DL s ar e co m p le t e d as sch e duled. ; an d
• n ew aut h o r it y f

o rE P A t o o b j ect t o an d if n ecessar y , r e i ssue expi r e d an d adm in i s t r at iv el y - co nt inued NP DE S per m it s i ssued b y st at es. A s t h e A g e n c y w a s fin a liz in g t h e s e r u le s , C o n g r e s s e n a c t e d a n a m e n d m e nt t o t h e M ilit ar y C o n s t r uct i o n A ppr o p r i at i o n s A c t : Supplem ent a l A ppr o p r i at i o n s ( P L106- 426)
. T hi s pr o v i s i o n pr o hi b it ed E P A f

r o m us in g F Y 2000 o r2001 f u n d s t o “ make a f in a l det e r m in at i o n o n o r im p le m e nt ” t h e J u l y

2000 r e gul at i o n s . E P A pub l i s h e d t h e f in a l r u le b e f o r e t h e le gi s l at i o n was si gn ed int o l a w an d est ab l i s h e d t h e ef f ect iv e dat e o f t h e n e w T M DL r e gul at i o n s as 30 day s af t e r t h e expi r a t i o n o f t hi s pr o h i b it i o n , o rat t h e ear l i e s t , Oct o b e r30, 2001.

9

### III. Cu rren t Ef f

o rt s t oPro t ecta n d Rest o re t h e Na t i o n ’ s W a t ers P r o g r e ss in im p r o v in g wat e rqual it y o v ert h e past sev e r a l decades h a s in v o lv ed sub s t a nt i a l e xp e nd i t u r e s by g o ve r n m e nta ta ll le ve l s a n dby t h e pr iv at e sect o r . Un der s t a n d in g t h e scale o f t h ese ef f o r t s pr o v i d es a usef ul

per s pect iv e o n t h e co st s o f t h e T M DLpr o g r a m t h at ar e pr esent e d in

S e c t io n V o f t h is R e p o r t . I n

th e m o s t g e n e r a l te r m s , e xp e n d it u r e s f o r w a te r q u a l it yc a n b e th ou g ht of a s th e tota l of :
• G o v er n m ent a l spen din g t o adm in i s t e rclean wat e rpr o g r a m s ;
• P ub l i c an d pr iv at e capit al in v e st m e nt s t o pr ev ent t h e gen e r a t i o n o f po ll u t i o n an d t o co llect an d t r eat wast ewat ert o r e m o v e t h e po ll u t a nt s. S u ch capit al in v e st m e nt s r a n g e f r o m sewersy st em s t o t r eat m e nt pl ant s t o co n s t r uct e d m easur es t o r e duce r u n o f f f

r o m agr i cul t ur al f

i el ds an d o t h e rl a n d
. I n v e st m e nt s ar e o ccur r in g t o im p r o v e t h e co llect i o n an d t r eat m e nt o f wast ewat erf r o m ex i s t in g so ur ces, t o r e pl ace ex i s t in g wast ewat ert r eat m e nt f ac ilit ie s a s t h e y n e ar t h e e n d o f t h e i r u s e f u l l if

e, an d t o addr es s t h e po t e nt i a l f

o rn e w po ll u t i o n f

r o m a gr o w in g po pul at i o n an d in d u s t r ia l b a s e ;a n d , • M u n ic ip a lit ie s a n din d u s t r y in c u r s u b s t a nt ia l o p e r a t in g a n dma int e n a n c e e xp e n s e s t o m in im i ze di sch ar g e f r o m po t e nt i a l po ll u t in g act iv it i e s an d t o keep t h e clean wat e rcapit al equi pm ent in go o dwo r k in g o r der
. Resear ch an d dev e l o pm ent al so r e pr esent s an o t h e rim p o r t a nt co st . A

s u b s t a nt ia l ma jo r i t y

o f c u r r e nt s p e n d in g is t o c o mp ly w it h t h e p r o v is io n s o f t h e A c t r e q u i r in g imp le me nt a t io n o f p e r f o r ma n c e - b a s e d w a t e r p o llu t i o n c o nt r o ls
. W hile ma ny N P D E S d i s c h ar g e r s d o h a v e W a t e r Q u a lit y B a s e d E fflu e nt L imit s ( W Q B E L s ) in t h e i r p e r m it s t o c o mp ly wit h t h e h eal t h

/ e n v i r o n m ent a l go al s f o rt h e A c t , in cl udin g st at e wat e rqual it y st an dar d s, t hi s i s a co m p ar at iv el y

small in v e st m e nt co m p ar ed t o t h e o v er all in v e st m e nt s b y di sch ar g er s as a r e sul t o f t h e n a t i o n al sy st em o f per f o r ma n ce- b a sed wat e rpo ll u t i o n co nt r o l s . F e der a l an d st at e pr o g r a m adm in i s t r at i o n co st s ar e t h e smalle st par t o f t hi s spen din g . T h e per f o r ma n ce- b a sed r e qui r e m e nt s o f t h e Clean W a t e rA c t an d r e l a t e d st at ut es in cl ude:
• E fflu e nt g u i d e lin e s r e q u i r in g d i r e c t in d u s t r ia l d i s c h ar g e r s t o me e t e fflu e nt limit s ba s e d o n t h e be s tc o nve nt i o na l p o ll u t i o n c o nt r o l t e c hno l o g i e s ( f o r

c o nve nt i o na l po ll u t a nt s di sch ar g ed b y ex i s t in g so ur ces) an d t h e b e st av ail ab le t r eat m e nt t echn o l o gi es t h at ar e eco n o m i call y

achi e v ab le ( f o rt o x i c an d n o n c o n v e nt i o n a l po ll u t a nt s di sch ar g ed b y ex i s t in g so ur ces) o rn e w so ur ces per f o r ma n ce st an dar d s ( f

o rn e w s o ur ces )
. E f f l uent gui del in es h a v e b een es t ab l i s h e d f o rm o r e t h an 50 ma jo r c a t e g o r ie s o f in d u s t r ia l d i s c h ar g e r s ( b o t h e x is t in g a n d n e w s o u r c e s ) u n d e r Sect i o n s 301 an d 304 o f t h e A c t ;

10• C a t e g o r ic a l p r e t r e a t me nt s t a n d ar d s c o nt r o llin g d i s c h ar g e s b y in d u s t r ie s t o p u b lic ly o w n e d s e wage t r eat m e nt pl ant s un der§307 o f t h e A c t . T h es e s t an dar d s ar e al s o in cl uded in t h e ef f l uent gui del in es ;
• S t a n d ar ds r e qui r in g all sewage t r eat m e nt pl an s t o t r eat t h ei ref f l uent t o m eet s eco n d ar y t r eat m e nt per f o r ma n ce s t an dar d s un der§304 o f t h e A c t ;
• S t o r m w a t e rma n a g e me nt r e q u i r e me nt s fo rmu n i c i p a lit ie s , in d u s t r y a n d c o n s tr u c ti on s ite s ;
• V ol u ntar yr e d u c ti on of p o ll u te d r u n o f f f

r om ma j o r c a t e g or i e s of n o np oint s o u r c e s l ar g el y

s uppo r t ed b y gr ant s an d s t at e ma t c h e s un der§319 o f t h e A c t ; an d,
• I mp le me nt a t io n o f ma n a g e me nt me a s u r e t o r e d u c e n o np o int p o llu t i o n in c o a s t a l wat e r s un der§6217 o f C Z A R A
. As no t e d ab o v e , in ve r y g e ne r a l t e r m s , a s u bs t a nt i a l ma j o r it y o f t h e o n - g o ing s p e n d ing i s t o c o mp ly w it h t h e p r o v is io n s o f t h e A c t r e q u i r in g imp le me nt a t io n o f p e r f o r ma n c e - b a s e d w a t e r po ll u t i o n co nt r o l s , wit h t h e b i ggest sh ar e co nt r i b u t e d b y pub l i c ent it i es f o rsewage co llect i o n an d t r eat m e nt .

11

### I V . D ef in in g T o day’ s Wat er P o llu t i o n P r o b lem s - - T h e 1998 §303( d) L i s t s Sect i o n 303( d) o f t h e C lean W a t e rA c t r e qui r e s s t at es per i o d i call y

t o dev e l o p a l i s t o f t h ei r im p ai r e d wat e rb o di es ( i
. e . wat e rb o di es t h at do n o t m eet wat e rqual i t y

s t an dar d s ) an d r e qui r e s t h at E P A r e v i ew an d appr o v e t h o s e l i s t s . T h e m o st r ecent l y

r e qui r e d sub m i ssi o n o f l

i s t s was in A

p r il , 1998. E P A waiv ed t h e r e qui r e m e nt f o ra 2000 l i s t b ecaus e it was in t h e pr o ces s o f r e v i s in g t h e pr o g r a m r e gul at i o n s . T h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s t hus pr o v i d e t h e m o s t r ecent co m p r e h e n s iv e pi ct ur e o f t h e st at es’ un der s t a n d in g o f im p ai r e d wat e r s in t h e Un it ed S t at es. T h e s t at es an d t e r r it o r i es i d ent if i ed n ear l y

22, 000 in div i dual wat e rb o di es , in cl udin g r iv e r an d st r eam segm ent s , l akes, an d est u ar i e s, t h at do n o t at t a in st at e wat e rqual i t y

st an dar d s despi t e 28 y ear s o f po ll u t i o n co nt r o l ef f o r t s un dert h e Clean W a t e rA c t . T ab le I V

- 1 in cl udes im p o r t a nt in f o r mat i o n co n cer n in g t h e s ect i o n 303( d) l i s t s o f im p ai r e d wat e r s . T h es e im p ai r e d wat e rb o di es in cl ude appr o x ima t e l y

300, 000 mile s o f r iv e r s a n d c o a s t a l s h o r e lin e a n d ap p r o x ima t e ly 5 millio n a c r e s o f lak e s . T his q u a nt it y o f imp a i r e d w a t e r s r e p r e s e nt s ab o u t 1/ 3 o f t h e le n g t h / acr eage o f all wat e r s in t h e U. S
. wh o s e qual it y h a s b een assessed, o rab o u t 10 % o f all t h e wat e r s n a t i o n wi de. A ppr o x ima t e l y

210 millio n p e o p le liv e w it hin 1 0 mile s o f o n e o rm o r e o f t h e im p ai r e d wat e rb o di es cur r e nt l y

l

i s t e d un der§303( d)
. T h e l i s t o f im p ai r e d wat e rb o di es ma y gr o w in t h e f u t u r e as m o r e wat e r s ar e assessed. Ho wev e r , t h e o n e- t hi r d f r act i o n o f assessed wat e r s t h at we ar e cur r e nt l y

f

in d in g t o b e im p ai r e d i s mu c h g r e a t e r t h a n t h e fr a c t io n o f t h e c u r r e nt ly u n a s s e s s e d w a t e r s t h a t w ill u l t ima t e ly b e fo u n d t o b e im p ai r e d. T h e qual it y o f t h e wat e r s t h at ar e assessed n o w, equal t o appr o x ima t e l y

o n e- t hi r d o f a ll th e w a te r s , i s l i k e l yg e n e r a ll yw o r s e th a n th e q u a l it y of th e w a te r s th a t h a v e n o t y e t b e e n assessed. T hi s i s b ecause assessm ent ef f o r t s t o dat e h a v e t e n d ed t o f o cus o n : 1) wat e r s t h at ar e im p o r t a nt an d h eav il y

used ( i
. e . , n earurb a n ar eas an d t hus m o r e l i k el y

t o b e degr aded) ; an d 2) wat e r s t h at ar e l i k el y

t o b e im p ai r e d ( i
. e . , m o n it o r in g i s o f t e n em pl o y ed t o det e r m in e wh et h e r wat e r s suspect ed o f b e in g im p ai r e d ar e so ; while it i s r ar e l y

used t o co n f i r m t h at wat e r s t h at ar e expect ed t o b e pr i s t in e r eall y

ar e so )
. I f

t h es e §303( d)

- l i s t e d wat e r s ar e t o m eet s t at e wat e rqual i t y

s t an dar d s an d t h e go al s o f t h e Clean W a t e rA c t ar e t o b e achi e v e d, po ll u t a nt so ur ces af f ect in g t h ese wat e r s m u st im p le m e nt addi t i o n al co nt r o l s b e y o n dappl i cab le per f o r ma n ce- b a sed r e qui r e m e nt s f o rpo int so ur ces an d ex i s t in g ma n a gem e nt pr act i ces f o rn o n p o int so ur ces. T h r o ugh int e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e in f o r mat i o n f r o m st at es, we est ima t e t h at le ss t h at 5 % o f t h ese wat e r s ar e im p ai r e d b y po int so ur ces o n l y

an d a f u r t h e r25% ar e im p ai r e d b y a co m b in at i o n o f so ur ces t h at in cl udes po int so ur ces. A b o u t h a lf o f t h e §303( d) wat e r s ar e im p ai r e d b y n o n p o int s o ur ces ex cl us iv el y , an d t h e r e ma in derar e im p ai r e d b y v ar i o u s co m b in at i o n s o f n o n p o int , “ o t h er ”, an d unkn o w n so ur ces. I n addit i o n t o t h e use o f in div i dual wat e rqual it y - b a s e d per m it s f o rpo int s o ur ces un der§301( b ) ( 1 ) ( C ) di s c us s e d ab o v e, t h e Clean W a t e rA c t in cl udes t h e T M DLpr o cess as an addit i o n al m ean s o f at t a in in g t h ese v ar i ed wat e rb o dy

- s pecif i c st an dar d s. F o reach l

i s t e d wat e rwh er e t h e im p ai r m ent i s caused b y a specif i c po ll u t a nt , r a t h ert h an so m e o t h e ren v i r o n m ent a l cause such as f l o w o rh ab i t a t m o dif i cat i o n , t h e A c t r e q u i r e s t h a t a

s t a t e e s t ab lis h t h e t o t a l ma x imu m d a ily lo a d t h a t w ill p r o v id e fo r a t t a in me nt o f t h e appl i cab le wat e rqual i t y

st an dar d s, wit h seaso n al v ar i at i o n an d a mar g in o f saf e t y . T h e A c t 12do es n o t specif y

h o w t h e T M DL i s t o b e achi e v e d, whi c h so ur ces ar e t o b e addr essed, o rh o w r e s p o n s i b ilit ie s fo rfu r t h e r c o nt r o ls ar e t o b e ap p o r t io n e d a m o n g t h e s o u r c e s c o nt r i b u t in g t o imp a i r m e nt . E P A ’ s r e g u l a t io n s imp le me nt in g t his s e c t io n o f t h e A c t r e t a in t his fle x ib ilit y - - E P A r e qui r e s o n l y

t h at all so ur ces o f t h e im p ai r in g po ll u t a nt b e co n s i d er ed, an d t h at wast el o a d a llo c a t io n s b e a s s i g n e d t o a ll r e le v a nt p o int s o u r c e s a n dlo a d a llo c a t io n s b e a s s i g n e d t o a ll r e le v a nt no np o ints o u r c e s .

Tab l e I V -1 **O ver**  **vi ew**  **of t**  **h e S**  **t at**  **es’ 1998 §303(**  **d) Li**  **st s**  S t at es and t e r r i t o r i es l i s t ed 21, 851 i m pai r ed w a t e r s . They ci t e 41, 331 causes of i m pai r m ent f o r t hese w a t e r s , an aver a g e of near l y2 causes per w a t e r . U nder t he Jul y , 2000 r e g ul at i on, each cause - - w i t h t he except i on of t hose such as habi t a t al t e r a t i on or f l ow al t e r a t i on t hat do not i n vol v e a pol l u t ant ( “ i m pai r ed by pol l u t i on but not a pol l u t ant ” ) - - r equi r e s a TM D L

. EPA e s t i m a t e s t h a t r o u g hl y 37, 000 of t he causes w ill r equi r e TM D L s. The f o l l o w i n g i n f o r m at i on descr i bes t hese i m pai r e d wa t e r s . L e a d i n g Ca us e s o f Im pa i r m e n t(41, 331 c i t e d) L e a d i n g S o ur c e s o f Im pa i r m e n t(21, 700 c i t e d)* S e di m e n t 14. 8% A g r i c u l t u r e 24. 6% P a t h o g e n s 12. 8% O t h e r s o ur c e 12. 8% N u tr ie n t s 1 1
. 5 % F l o wo r h a b itat alte r a tio n 1 2
. 0 % M e t a l s 9. 6% N o n p o i n ts o ur c e(n o tc l a s s i f i e d ) 11. 4% D i s s o l v ed o x yg en 9
. 6 % R e s o u r ce ex t r a c t i o n (min in g , o il& g a s ) 9. 6% O t h e r 5. 8% M u n i c i pa l po i n ts o ur c e s 8. 5% H a b itat alte r a tio n 5
. 1 % U r b a n r u n o f f / s t o r m s e w e r s 6
. 8 % T e m p e r a t ur e 4. 6% Un kn o w n s o ur c e 4. 6% p H 4
. 4 % A t mo s p h e r i c d e p o s itio n 2
. 6 % T o xi c o r ga n i c s 3. 7% Co n s t r uc t i o n 2. 5% I m p a ir e d b i o l o g ic c o mmu n ity 3
. 5 % S ilv ic u ltu r e 1
. 9 % F l o w alte r a tio n 2
. 7 % I n d u s tr ial p o in t s o u r c e s 1
. 0 % M e r c ur y 2. 6% Re m a i n de r 1. 6% Re m a i n de r 5. 9% * ( S ou r ce i n f o r m a t i on i sr epor t e d f o r

onl y a bou t ha l f of

a l lw a t er s ) A r e a o f Im pa i r e dL a ke s (2, 946 t o t a l l a ke s ) L e n g t h o f Im pa i r e dRi v e r S e gm e n t s (15, 721 t o t a l se g m e n t s )
< 10 a c r e s 9. 5% < 1 m i l e 7. 2% 10 - 500 a c r e s 56. 6% 1 - 20 m i l e s 74. 4% > 10, 000 a c r e s 3. 5% 20- 100 m i l e s 16. 84% > 100 m i l e s 1
. 6 %

13

### V. Ad m i n i s t rat i ve Co s t s t oDevelo p TM DLs T h e T M DLpr o g r a m h a s t w o specif i c adm in i s t r at iv e act iv i t i e s t h at st at es ( o rE P A , if n eeded) m u st per f o r m :

� L i s ting I m

pair e d W a ter B odies . S t at es m u st i d ent if y

t h ei rspecif i c im p ai r e d wat e r b o dy s e gm ent s an d per i o d i call y

s u b m it t h e r e s u l t in g l i s t , in cl udin g s uppo r t in g ma te r i a l , to E P A
.

� Devel opi n g T M DL s. F o reach po ll u t a nt cause o f im pai r m e nt f o reach l

i s t e d wat e r b o d y , t h e s t a t e mu s t d e v e lo p a

s p e c ific p l a n ( a “ T M D L ” ) t h a t w ill a c hie v e t h e ap p lic ab le w a t e r q u a lit y s t a n d ar d s . T h e p l a n w ill in v o lv e e s t ab lis hin g t h e t o t a l ma x im u m dail y

l o ad t h e wat e rb o dy can t o le r a t e , i d ent if yin g t h e specif i c so ur ces c o nt r i b u tin g th e im p a i r m e nt p o ll u ta nt to th e w a te r b o d y , a n d a ll o c a t in g th e tota l all o wab le l o ad am o n g t h e co nt r i b u t in g s o ur ces . Un dert h e J u l y

2000 r u le , each T M DL i s al so t o in cl ude an im p le m e nt at i o n pl an , specif yin g t h e act i o n s t o b e t aken , t h e t im e t ab le, an d t h e r e spo n si b le par t i e s. E P A h a s est ima t e d t h e co st s f o r

t h e st at es an d E P A t o per f o r m t h ese act iv it i e s, f o cusin g o n t h e wat e r s l i s t e d o n t h e1998 §303( d) l i s t s . I n addit i o n , t hi s s ect i o n i d ent if i es co s t s t o s t at es o f m

o n it o r in g specif i call y

asso ci at ed wit h dev e l o pm ent o f T M DL s.

� Im pl em en ti n g t h e T M DL s. F o r t hi s re p o rt , w e w e re n o t ab le t o e s t ima t e separ a t e l y

t h e po t e nt i a l in cr eased adm in i s t r at iv e co st s t o t h e st at es an d E P A t h at m

i g ht b e asso ci at ed wit h im p le m e nt in g T M DL s. T o im plem ent a T M DL , t h e st at e w ill n e e d t o r e v i s e N P D E S p e r mit s t o r e q u i r e

t h e w a s t e l o a d r e d u c t i o n s d e s i r e d f r o m po int so ur ces, an d t o im p le m e nt an appr o p r i at e r a n g e o f pr o g r a m s ( v o l unt ar y , in cent iv e - b ased, an d/ o rr e gul at o r y ) f o rt ar g et ed n o np o int so ur ces. T o a l ar g e ex t e nt t h ese act iv it i e s, such as r e v i sin g NP DE S per m it s an d wo r k in g wi t h n o np o int so ur ces, ar e al r eady par t o f t h e st at es’ wat e rpr o g r a m ef f o r t s. T h e ex t e nt t o w hic h imp le me nt in g T M D L s w ill r e s u lt in t h e n e e d t o in c r e a s e t h e s e e ffo r t s is un clear . T o a l ar g e ex t e nt , t h e n eed t o im p le m e nt T M DL s ma y o n l y

ch an ge t h e t imin g o r t h e fo c u s o f c u r r e nt e ffo r t s r a t h e r t h a n in c r e a s e t h e i r c o s t . F o r p o int so ur ces, st at es r e n e w per m it s ev er y f

iv e y ear s, so t im in g an d co st s ar e un l i k el y

t o b e af f ect ed. On t h e o t h e rh a n d , in so m e st at es, especi all y

f

o ref f o r t s r e l a t e d t o no np o ints o u r c e s , e xp a ns i o n o f c u r r e ntp r o g r a m s ma y be ne e d e d
. A ) Th e C o sto f Li st i n g Imp a i r ed W a t e r s E P A es t ima t e d t h e co s t o f m eet in g t h e l i s t in g r e qui r e m e nt s o f §303( d) pr i o rt o t h e J u l y 2000 r u le in it s per i o d i c I n f o r mat i o n C o llect i o n R e ques t ( I C R )
. Sub s equent t o pub l i c co m m

e nt o n t h e dr af t I C R , OM B appr o v ed t h e I C R ( #1560. 05) f o rt h e per i o dco v e r in g M ar c h 2000

14t h r o ugh A p r il 2003. T h e n a t i o n al b u r d en t o s t at es f o reach l

i s t in g , pr i o rt h e J u l y

2000 r u le , was e s t ima t e d t o b e ab o u t $ 1 millio n a n dlis t in g s w e r e r e q u i r e d e v e r y 2 ye ar s . T h e J u l y

2000 T M DLr u le r e qui r e s s t at es t o im p r o v e t h ei rm e t h o d o l o g i e s f o rs e t t in g p r io r i t i e s , e s t ab lis h s c h e d u le s fo r d e v e lo p in g T M D L s , in c r e a s e p u b lic p ar t ic ip a t io n , p r o v id e t h e i r l i s t s in a co n s i s t e nt f o r mat , an d co n v e y t h e es s e nt i a l in f o r mat i o n s uppo r t in g t h e l i s t in g . A s des c r i b e d in t h e s uppo r t in g E c o n o m i c A n al y s i s , 1 t h e b u l k

o f t h e co st asso ci at ed wit h t h ese r e qui r e m e nt s wo ul d b e a o n e- t im e t r an s i t i o n co s t t h at wo ul d b e in cur r e d f o rt h e f i r s t l i s t in g un der t h e r u le , an d t h er e wo ul d b e smalle ro n - g o in g co st s f o rf u t u r e l i s t in g s. T h e o n e- t im e co st f o rt h e t r a n s it i o n a l fir s t lis t in g w a s e s t ima t e d a t ab o u t $ 1
. 3 millio n , a n d t h e a d d i t i o n a l c o s t fo r s u b s e q u e nt lis t in g s w a s e s t ima t e d t o b e ab o u t $ 0
. 2 millio n . Ho wev e r , t h e J u l y

2000 r u le al s o e limin a t e d h a lf o f t h e fu t u r e lis t in g s b y c h a n g in g t h e lis t in g c y c le fr o m 2 ye ar s t o 4 ye ar s , t h e r e b y s a v in g ab o u t $ 0
. 8 millio n e v e r y fo u rye ar s . 2 B y 2011, o n an un di s c o u nt ed b a s i s , t h e s a v in g s as s o ci at ed wit h t h e 4 y earcy cle w ill e x ceed t h e addi t i o n al co s t o f t h e n e w l i s t in g - r e l a t e d r e qui r e m e nt s o f t h e J u l y

2000 r u le . B y 2015, t h e t o t a l u n d i s c o u nt e d c o s t o f lis t in g u n d e r t h e c u r r e nt p r o g r a m w ill b e $ 6
. 9 millio n in c o mp ar is o n w it h t h e J u l y

2000 r u le ’ s co s t o f $6. 5 millio n . O n a

d i s c o u nt e d c o s t b a s i s , u s in g a

7 % d i s c o u nt r a t e , t h e r e v i s e d r u le b e gin s t o s a v e m o n e y af t e rt h e 2014 l i s t in g . T hus , t h e 15 y eardi s c o u nt ed co s t s o f l i s t in g un dert h e cur r e nt r u le an d t h e J u l y

2000 r u le ar e appr o x ima t e l y

t h e s a m e at $4. 5 millio n . B ) Th e Cos tof Devel o p i n g TM DLs I n

est ima t in g t h e n a t i o n al co st o f dev e l o pin g T M DL s, E P A co m b in ed in f o r mat i o n o n t h e nu mb e r o f T M D L s t h a t w ill n e e d t o b e d e v e lo p e d w it h in fo r ma t io n o n t h e u n it c o s t s o f dev e l o pin g T M DL s o f v ar i o u s t y pes. T h e an al y s i s al so co n s i d er ed v ar yin g un i t co st s as a f u n c t i o n o f

t h e co m p le x it y o f dif f e r e nt T M DL s, an d t h e po t e nt i a l ef f i ci en ci es t h at can b e o b t a in ed b y c oor d in a tin g th e d e v e l o p m e nt of T M D L s w ithin w a te r s h e d s . T

h e Nu m b er of T M DL s Needed F o r t h e p u r p o s e o f t h is a n a l ys is , E P A a s s u me d t h a t s t a t e s w ill d e v e lo p T M D L s fo r a ll wat e rb o di es o n t h e s ect i o n 303( d) l i s t s t h at ar e im p ai r e d b y o n e o rm o r e po ll u t a nt . I n

t h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s , s t at es i d ent if i ed n ear l y

22, 000 wat e rb o di es im p ai r e d b y m o r e t h an 41, 000 caus e s o f v ar i o u s t y pes . R o ugh l y

37, 000 o f t h es e caus e s o f im pai r m e nt o n 20, 000 wat e rb o di es in v o lv e po ll u t a nt s, an d t hus m u st b e addr essed b y T M DL s. E P A ’ s m o st r ecent

1 E n v i r o n o m i cs a n d T e t r a T ech , I n c. An a l ys is o f

th e I n crem en ta l Co s t o

f

F

i n a lRevis i o n s to th e W a ter Q uality P l anning and Managem e nt Regul ation and the National P o llution D i s c har ge Elim ination Sys t em P r ogr am , pr e p a r e df o r t h eU
. S
. E P A , O f f i c eo f W e t l a n d s , O c e a n s a n d W a t e r s h e ds
. J u l y 7, 2000. 2 Ev e n th o u g h an e n tir elis tin g w o u l d b eav o i d e d e v e r y 4 ye ar s , th eEc o n o m ic A n aly s is as s u me dth at o n ly 8 0 % o f th e c o s t o f a lis tin g w o u l d b e s a v e d s i n c e s o me o f th eac tiv itie s as s o c i ate d w ith lis tin g w o u l dlik e l y c o n tin u e to o c c u r an y w ay o n an an n u al b a s i s . 15es t ima t e s in di cat e t h at ab o u t 1, 000 o f t h es e T M DL s wer e dev e l o ped pr i o rt o 2000. T h er ef o r e, as o f

t h e b e gin n in g o f 2000, t h er e wer e appr o x ima t e l y

36, 000 m o r e T M DL s t h at w ill n e e d t o b e dev e l o ped t o addr es s t h e caus e s o f im p ai r m ent i d ent if i ed in t h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s . A l t h o ugh E P A h a s dev e l o ped co s t es t ima t e s b a s e d o n t h e as s u m p t i o n t h at ab o u t 36, 000 T M DL s n eed t o b e dev e l o ped, t hi s est ima t e ma y un der s t a t e o ro v er st at e t h e act ual co st s t o b e in cur r e d b ecause so m e wat e rb o di es w ill b e a d d r e s s e d t h r o u g h me a n s o t h e r t h a n t h e d e v e lo p m e nt o f

a T M DL
. F o rex am ple, a st at e ma y i ssue a r e v i sed NP DE S per m it wit h m o r e st r in g ent per m it limit s fo r a

s in g le d i s c h ar g e r t o a n imp a i r e d w a t e r b o d y , a n d t his ma y r e s u lt in a c hie v in g w a t e r q u a lit y s t a n d ar d s b e fo r e a

T M D Lis in it ia t e d
. S imilar l y, imp le me nt a t io n o f o t h e r p o llu t i o n co nt r o l s , such as n e w st o r m wat e rdi sch ar g e per m it s o rco nt r o l s o v erco m b in ed sewero v er f l o w s, ma y r e s u lt in a t t a in me nt o f s t a n d ar d s p r io r t o d e v e lo p m e nt o f a

T M D L
. I n a d d it i o n , s o me s t a t e s h a v e in di cat ed t h at t h e 1998 l i s t s in cl ude wat e r s f o rwhi c h t h er e i s in s u f f i ci ent dat a t o es t ab l i s h im p ai r m ent an d t h ese wat e r s ma y b e r e m o v e d f r o m t h e l i s t s in t h e n e x t l i s t in g cy cle. At t h e s a me t ime , it is imp o r t a nt t o r e me mb e r t h a t s o me w a t e r s t h a t ar e n o w imp a i r e d , o r t h a t w ill b e c o me imp a i r e din t h e fu t u r e , ar e n o t in c l u d e d o n t h e 1998 l i s t s o f im p ai r e d wat e r s . E P A es t ima t e s t h at ab o u t 1, 000 n e w wat e r s w ill b e a d d e d t o 303( d) l i s t s perf o ury ear l i s t in g cy cle s t ar t in g wit h t h e 2006 l i s t in g cy cle t o a t o t a l o f 9, 000 n e w l i s t in g s b y 2038. E ach s u ch addi t i o n o f 1, 000 wat e r s w ill r e s u lt in a n a d d it i o n a l w o r k lo a d o f ab o u t 100 T M DL s pery ear( i
. e . , t h e 1, 000 T M DL s w ill b e d e v e lo p e d a t a n e v e n p ace o v ert h e 10 y ear s sub s equent t o t h e dat e o f lis t in g )
. T

h e Un it Cost of Devel opi n g T M DL s I n

es t ima t in g t h e co s t o f dev e l o pin g T M DL s co n s i s t e nt wit h t h e J u l y

2000 r e gul at i o n s , E P A in cl u d e s co st s f o r

p e r f o r m in g ei g ht b a si c st ep s: 1. ch ar act er i z in g t h e wat e r s h e d, 2. m o del in g an d an al y z in g t h e wat e rb o dy an d it s po ll u t a nt s t o det e r m in e t h e r e d u c t i o n in t h e p o llu t a nt lo a d t h a t w o u l d e limin a t e t h e imp a i r m e nt , 3. all o cat in g l o ad r e duct i o n s t o t h e appr o p r i at e so ur ces, 4
. p r e p ar in g a n imp le me nt a t io n p l a n , 3 5. dev e l o pin g a T M DLs uppo r t do cum e nt f o rpub l i c r e v i ew, 6. per f o r m in g pub l i c o u t r each ,

3 T h i s s t e p i s n o ta r e qui r e d e l e m e n to f t h eT M D L un de r t h e1992 r u l e s , b u tE P Ae n c o ur a g e ds u c h a c t i o n i n a n A ugus t , 1997 m e m o r a n dum f r o m t h eA s s i s t a n d A d m i n i s t r a t o r f o r W a t e r a n d m a n y s t a t e s a r epr e p a r i n g s u c h plan s . Th eJ u ly 2000 r e gul atio n s e xplic itly r e quir eth at a TM D L in c l udean imple m e n tatio n plan
. 167. co n duct in g f o r mal pub l i c par t i c i p at i o n an d r e s p o n din g t o it , an d 8. ma n a gem e nt ( in c l udin g t r ackin g, pl an n in g , le gal s uppo r t , et c. )
. Whe n d e ve l o p ing T M D L s , s t a t e s c a n o b t a in s u bs t a nt i a l c o s ts a ving s by w o r k in g o n a w a t e r s h e d b a s i s . B y c o o r d in a t in g t h e d e v e lo p m e nt o f mu lt ip le T M D L s w it hin a

w a t e r s h e d , ef

f i ci en ci es can t y pi call y

b e r eal i zed f o rev er y st ep o f t h e T M DLdev e l o pm ent pr o cesses. F o rt hi s r eas o n , t h e J u l y

2000 r e gul at i o n en co ur aged s t at es t o in co r p o r at e t hi s im p o r t a nt co n s i d er at i o n wh en s e t t in g pr i o r it i es an d pl an n in g f o rdev e l o pin g T M DL s . Gr o upin g T M DL s f o rco o r din a t e d d e v e lo p m e nt is c o n s is t e nt w it h c u r r e nt t r e n d s in int e r n a l s t a t e ma n a g e me nt o f w a t e r p r o g r a ms , wit h h a lf o f t h e st at es al r eady usin g a b a sin ma n a gem e nt appr o ach t o addr ess m o n it o r in g , ev al uat i o n , pub l i c m eet in gs an d per m it t in g ef f o r t s . I n addit i o n :
• A l ar g e s a m p le o f 1, 096 T M DL s f o r668 wat e rb o di es r ecent l y

s u b m i t t e d t o E P A4 in di cat es t h e ex t e nt t o whi c h st at es ar e al r eady b e gin n in g t o ado p t appr o ach es f o r ef

f i ci ent l y

dev e l o pin g T M DL s . T h es e 1, 096 T M DL s wer e gr o uped t o get h erb y t h e s t at es int o 496 s u b m i s s i o n s . A b o u t h a lf o f t h e s u b m i s s i o n s , r e pr es ent in g o n l y ab o u t 2 5 % o f t h e TM D L s , w e re f o r as in g le TM D L f o r as in g le w a t e r b o d y . Th e r e ma in in g s u b mis s i o n s e it h e r g r o u p e d a ll o f t h e T M D L s fo r a

s in g le w a t e r b o d y t o get h ero rgr o uped all o f t h e T M DL s f o rs e v e r a l wat e rb o di es t o get h er . Ov er all , m

o r e t h an h a lf o f t h e T M DL s b e n e f it t e d f r o m t h e co st ef f i ci en ci es t h at can b e r eal i zed b y co o r din a t in g t h e dev e l o pm ent o f T M DL s f o rwat e rb o di es r e qui r in g mu lt ip le T M D L s a n d b y c o o r d in a t in g t h e d e v e lo p m e nt o f T M D L s fo rmu lt ip le wat e rb o di es wit hin wat e r s h e ds
. • T o assess t h e po t e nt i a l f

o rr eal i z in g such ef f i ci en ci es in t h e f u t u r e , E P A an al y zed n ear l y

all o f t h e wat e rb o di es o n t h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s – t h e an al y s i s was do n e f o r all o f t h e wat e rb o di es o n t h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s f o rwhi c h adequat e dat a wer e av ail ab le, r e pr esent in g 77% o f t h e wat e rb o di es an d 70% o f t h e causes n a t i o n all y . F o rt h ese wat e rb o di es, we wer e ab le t o i d e ntif y

th e g r ou p s of w a te r b o d i e s th a t w e re int e rc o n n e c t e d(i .e ., f l o w e d int o o n e a n o t h e r) w it hinw a t e rs h e d s . B a s e d o n t h i s an al y s i s , o v er85% o f t h e T M DL s co ul d po t e nt i a ll y

r eal i ze v ar yin g degr ees o f co st ef f i ci en ci es. Based o n t hi s det a ile d an al y s i s it i s cleart h at t h e po t e nt i a l f

o r c o o r d ina t ing t h e d e ve l o p m e nto f T M D L s t o a c hi e ve c o s ts a ving s i s s u bs t a nt i a ll y gr eat ert h an r e f lect ed in t h e r ecent s a m p le o f 1, 096 T M DL s s u b m i s s i o n s . T hu s , E P A a nt i c i p a t e s t h a t in t h e fu t u r e s t a t e s w ill in c r e a s in g l y b e ab le t o a d o p t e ffic i e nt p r a c t ic e s wh en dev e l o pin g T M DL s . T h e co st o f dev e l o pin g T M DL s can b e v i ewed at dif f e r e nt le v e l s o f aggr egat i o n in addi t i o n t o t h e n a t i o n al t o t a l
. A cco r d in gl y , T ab le V- 1 pr o v i d es t h e n a t i o n al av er age co st an d t h e

4 T h eT M D L s w e r epr e p a r e d b y 35 s t a t e s i n 9 E P AR e gi o n s f o r o v e r 60 di f f e r e n tt y pe s o f c a us e s , a n d w e r e s u b m itte d o v e r th epe r i o d A p r il 1998 th r o ugh S e pte m b e r 2000. 17asso ci at ed t y pi cal r a n g e o f co st s in dev e l o pin g T M DL s f o r : 1) a sin g le cause o f im pai r m e nt ; 2) a w a t e r b o d y t h a t r e q u i r e s mu lt ip le T M D L s ;a n d 3 ) a s u b mis s i o n t h a t ma y r a n g e fr o m a

s in g le T M DL f

o ra s in g le wat e rb o dy t o ma ny T M DL s f o rall t h e wat e rb o di es in a wat e r s h e d. A s s u m mar i zed in T ab le V- 1, t h e co s t percaus e i s es t ima t e d t o b e ab o u t $28, 000 o n av er age n a t i o n all y , b u t can t y pi call y

r a n g e f r o m ab o u t $6, 000 t o $154, 000. T h e l o weren d o f t h e r a n g e r e f lect s t h e t y pi cal co st asso ci at ed wit h T M DL s t h at ar e t h e easi e st t o dev e l o p an d al so h a v e t h e b e n e f it o f ma x im u m ef f i ci en ci es ( f o rex am ple, t h e T M DL f

o rt h e seco n dnu t r i e nt po ll u t a nt f o ra wat e rb o dy )
. T h e h i gh eren d o f t h e r a n g e r e pr esent s t h e t y pi cal co st asso ci at ed wit h T M DL s t h at ar e m o st dif f i cul t t o dev e l o p, an d f o rwhi c h t h er e i s n ’ t t h e b e n e f i t o f r e l a t e d w o r k d o n e on oth e r T M D L s f o rth e w a te r b o d y orth e w a te r s h e d
. N o te th a t th e r a n g e of $ 6 , 0 0 0 t o $154, 000 perT M DLb r o a dl y

r e pr es ent s t h e t y pi cal co s t o f dev e l o pin g T M DL s , wit h per h aps o n ly 2

- 5 % o f t h e T M D L s n a t i o n a lly c o s t in g mo r e t h a n t his r a n g e . Ta b l e V- 1 Nat i on alAver age & Typ i calRan g e f o r t h e Un itCos tof Devel o p i n g TM DLs

L e v e l o f A ggregat i o n Na t i o n a l Av e r a g e Co s t * ( t h o u s a nds 2000 $) Ty p i c a l R a n g e f o r C o st ( t h o u s a nds 2000 $) C o s t pers i ng l e c a us e o f i m pai r m e nt ( f ors i ng l e T M D L ) $27 - $29 $6 - $154 C o s t p e r s i n g le w a te r b o d y (f

or s i n g le T M D L s to m u ltip le T M D L s ) $49 - $54 $26 - o v e r$500 C o s t p e r s u b mis s i o n (f or s i n g le w a te r b o d i e s to m u ltip le w a te r bo di es ) $136 - $165 $26 - o v e r$1, 000

* R ange s r e f

l e ct a 5- 10 ye ar t r

ans i t i on pe r i od ove r wh i c h s t at e s ar e as s u m e d t o f u l l

y achi e v e t h ecos t e ffic ie n c ie s th a tc a n b e r e a liz e d by c l u s te r i n g wa te r bodi e s and caus e s wh e n de ve l opi ng TM DL s . Th e c o s t p e r w a t e r b o d y c a nv ary w i d e l y . A l t h o u g hm o s t w a t e r b o d i e s h a v e o n l y

o n e caus e o f im p ai r m ent r e qui r in g a T M DL , n ear l y

40% o f t h e wat e rb o di es o n t h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s h a v e t w o o r m o r e causes. T h e nu m b er o f causes r a n g es t o m o r e t h an t hi r t y f

o ra sin g le wat e r b o dy
. T h e n a t i o n al av er age co st o f dev e l o pin g T M DL s perwat e rb o dy i s est ima t e d t o b e ab o u t $52, 000, b u t can t y pi call y

r a n g e f r o m un der$26, 000 t o o v er$500, 000 depen d in g o n t h e nu m b er o f

T M DL s, t h ei rle v e l o f dif f i cul t y

an d t h e ex t e nt t o whi c h im p ai r e d wat e r s ar e cl ust e r e d t o get h er f o rT M DLdev e l o pm ent . S t a t e s w ill u s u a lly c o mb in e t h e d e v e lo p m e nt o f T M D L s int o lo g i c a l , e ffic i e nt g r o u p s a n d su b m i t t h em t o g e t h er in a sin g le su b m i ssi o n . S u b m i ssi o n s ma y r a n g e f r o m a sin g leT M D L f

o r

a wat e rb o dy t o ma ny T M DL s f o rall o f t h e wat e rb o di es in a wat e r s h e d. T h e co st o f a sub m i ssi o n ( w hi c h t y p i c a lly ma y c o v e r 5

- 6 T M D L s b u t c o u l d h a v e fe w e r o rfarmo r e T M D L s ) is e s t ima t e d t o b e ab o u t $150, 000 o n av er age n a t i o n all y , b u t ma y t y pi call y

r a n g e f r o m in cl udin g a s in g le T M DL

18f o ra co s t o f $26, 000 pers u b m i s s i o n t o cas es t h at in cl ude a cl us t e ro f ma ny wat e rb o di es an d/o r T M DL s at h i gh erle v e l s o f dif f i cul t y

t h at ex ceed $1, 000, 000 pers u b m i s s i o n . 5 T

h e Nati o n a l Cost of Devel opi n g T M DL s (e xclu di n g m o n it o ri n g ) A s o f t h e b e gin n in g o f 2000, t h e t o t a l un di s c o u nt ed co s t o f dev e l o pin g t h e r e ma in in g 36, 225 T M DL s f o rt h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s i s es t ima t e d t o b e ab o u t $1 b illio n ( in 2000 do ll ar s )
. T hi s co st wo ul d b e spr ead o v ert h e n e x t t e n t o f if

t een y ear s. T hi s t o t a l co v e r s all o f t h e t a sks as s o ci at ed wit h dev e l o pin g T M DL s ( e x cept f o raddit i o n al m o n it o r in g r e qui r e d t o dev e l o p t h e T M DL ) , in cl udin g t h e addi t i o n al r e qui r e m e nt s ma n d at ed b y t h e J u l y

2000 r e gul at i o n , ev en t h o ugh t h ese r u le s ar e n o t y e t ef f ect iv e. A s des c r i b e d in det a il in t h e s uppo r t in g r e po r t , T h e National Cos ts to Develop T M DL s , thi s e s tima te i s b a s e don : th e nu m b e rof T M D L s to b e d e v e l o p e d , th e n a ti on a ld i s t r i b u ti on of th e co m p le x it y o f t h e T M DL s t o b e dev e l o ped, t h e un it co st s f o reach o f t h e t a sks n eeded t o dev e l o p T M DL s f o reach o f t h r ee le v e l s o f co m p le x it y , an d t h e po t e nt i a l ef f i ci en ci es t h at can b e o b t a in ed b yc oor d in a tin g th e d e v e l o p m e nt of T M D L s w ithin w a te r s h e d s . I n

addit i o n , t hi s est ima t e i s b a sed o n t h e assum p t i o n t h at o v era 5- 10 y eart r an sit i o n per i o d , t h e st at es wo ul d f u ll y

achi e v e t h e co st sav in g s t h at can b e r eal i zed b y co o r din a t in g t h e d e v e lo p m e nt o f T M D L s w it hin w a t e r s h e d s . T h e t o t a l c o s t o f $ 1 b illio n c o u l d b e lo w e r o r hi g h e r b y ab o u t 15% , depen d in g o n t h e t im e n eeded f o rst at es t o ado p t t h e m o st ef f i ci ent m e t h o d s f o r d e v e lo p in g T M D L s . N e ar ly a ll o f t h e t o t a l c o s t o f $ 1 b illio n is a s s o c i a t e d w it h t h e r e q u i r e me nt s o f

t h e ex i s t in g pr o g r a m , wit h t h e addit i o n al r e qui r e m e nt s o f t h e J u l y

2000 r e gul at i o n s t h at af f ect T M DLdev e l o pm ent acco unt in g f o rle ss t h an 10% o f t h e t o t a l co st . 6 I n

t hi s an al y s i s , E P A f

o cused o n t h e n a t i o n al av er age co st f o r“ t y p i cal ” T M DL s ( a s r e f lect ed in T ab le V- 1) in o r dert o dev e l o p an accur a t e est ima t e o f t h e t o t a l n a t i o n al co st . E P A di d n o t co n s i d ert h e m o st in expen s iv e T M DL s o rt h e m o st expen s iv e T M DL s b ecause t h ese “ o ut l i e r s ” ar e n o t r e pr esent a t iv e o f t h e b u l k

o f t h e n a t i o n al T M DLdev e l o pm ent wo r k l o ad. W e b e l i e v e t h at t h e r a n g e o f co st s used in t hi s r e po r t i s appr o p r i at e f o rdev e l o pin g an est ima t e f o r t o t a l n a t i o n al co st s. Ho wev e r , t o t h e ex t e nt t h at t h er e i s a si gn if i cant nu m b ero f o u t l i e r s wit h

5 N o teth at it is n o t n e c e s s a r y th at th e r eto b ea s i n g le s u b m is s i o n in o r d e r f o r th ein d i v i d u a l TM D L s to be n e fi tfr om t h e e ffi c i e n c i e s t h a t c a n be g a i n e d fr om c oor d i n a t e d d e ve l o p m e n t . T M D L s c a n be d e ve l o p e d s i mu ltan e o u s l y , b u t s u b m itte d s e p a r a te ly
. I n ad d itio n , th eTM D L s d o n o t e v e n n e e dto b e d e v e lo p e d c o n t e m p o r a n e o u s l y in o r d e r s till to b e n e f it f r o m e f f i c i e n c i e s , alth o u g h th e r e s u ltin g e f f i c i e n c i e s may b ele s s ( f o r ex a m p l e, m u ch o f t h e w a t e r s h e dch a r a c t e r i z a t i o n a n d T M D L d o cu m e n tco u l d b e r e u s ed , b u t t h e ef f i ci en cy o f h o ld in g a j o in t p u b lic h e ar in g w o u l d b elo s t )
. 6 T h e J u l y 2000 r u l ea dde d o n eo f t h ee i gh tT M D L de v e l o pm e n tt a s k s (a l b e i ta n i m po r t a n tt a s k , p r e p ar in g an imp l e m e n tatio n p l an ) an din c r e a s e dth e e f f o r t r e q u i r e d f o r an o t h e r tas k( p u b lic p a r tic ip atio n )
. H o w e v e r , i ts h o u l d b en o t e d t h a te v e n b e f o r et h eJ u l y 2000 r e v i s i o n , s o m es t a t e s w e r ea l r e a d y pe r f o r m i n g t h e additio n a l pub lic par tic ipatio n an d w e r epr e p ar in g impl e m e n tatio n plan s . S i n c e A ugus t, 1997, in a me mo r a n dum f r o m th e A s s i s t an t A d min i s t r a to r f o r W a te r , EP A h a s b e e n e n c o u r ag in g s t ate s toin c l u d eimp l e m e n tatio n p l an s in T M D L s . T h er e m a i n i n g t a s k s w e r en o tc h a n ge d b y t h eJ u l y 2000 r u l e . 19suf f i ci ent l y

hi gh erco st s, t o t a l n a t i o n al co st s ma y ul t ima t e l y

ex ceed wh at we est ima t e in t hi s r e po r t . F o rper s pect iv e, if t h e po t e nt i a l o u t l i e r s ex ceed t h e ma x im u m co s t o f $154, 000 per T M DL b y an av er age o f $100, 000 pero u t l i e rT M DL , t h en t h e n a t i o n al t o t a l co s t es t ima t e d in t h i s r e po r t wo ul d b e un der s t a t e d b y per h aps 10- 20%
. 7 A

st at e t h at wi sh es t o appl y

t h e n a t i o n al av er age est ima t e s an d m e t h o d o l o g y t o est ima t e t h e co st o f dev e l o pin g T M DL s f o rit self sh o u l dmake t h e appr o p r i at e st at e- specif i c adj u st m e nt s as det a ile d in t h e s uppo r t in g co s t an al y s i s t o t hi s R e po r t , T h e National Cos t s to Develop T M DL s . F o r e x a m p le , fo r s o me s t a t e s it ma y b e imp o r t a nt t o e xp lic it ly c o n s id e r o u t lie r s . A nnualiz ed C o s t s of Developing T M DL s E P A e s t ima t e s t h a t t h e a v e r a g e a n nu a l n a t i o n a l c o s t fo r d e v e lo p in g T M D L s w ill b e ab o u t $63- $69 millio n . W hile t h e J u ly 2000 r u le s e t s a 10 y ears c h e dule f o rdev e l o pin g T M DL s , t h e r u le in cl udes a pr o v i s i o n f

o rex t e n d in g t h at an addit i o n al 5 y ear s wh en r e quest ed b y st at es. T h e 15 y earsch e dule was used in t h i s an al y s i s . T h e r a t e o f T M DLdev e l o pm ent i s gr aduall y

in cr easin g. A

b o u t 1, 000 T M DL s wer e dev e l o ped pr i o rt o 2000 an d an o t h e r1, 400 T M DL s wer e dev e l o ped in 2000. T h er ef o r e, it appear s t h at s t at es ar e in t h e pr o ces s o f b u il d in g up t h ei rcapacit y t o dev e l o p T M D L s . T his e s t ima t e o f a n nu a l c o s t s in b a s e d o n t h e a s s u mp t i o n t h a t s t a t e s w ill d e v e lo p t h e n eeded T M DL s at a r o ugh l y

un if o r m pace b e t w een 2000 an d 2015 o rab o u t 2, 350 T M DL s per y ear . A m o r e l i k el y

scen ar i o i s a “ t r a n s it i o n ” pace in whi c h T M DLdev e l o pm ent m i g ht st eadil y in cr eas e f r o m 1, 000 T M DL s pery earin t h e y ear2000 t o ab o u t 2, 550 T M DL s b y t h e y ear2005 an d r e ma in at t h at r a t e t h r o ugh t h e y ear2015. T hi s wo ul d r e s u l t in a y ear l y

co s t t h at wo ul d s t ar t at ab o u t $27- $29 millio n in t h e ye ar 2000 an d s t eadil y

in cr eas e t o ab o u t $68- $75 millio n in 2005 an d r e ma in at t h at le v e l t h r o ugh 2015. 8 T

h e C o s t of A dditional M o nitor i ng Needed to Develop T M DL s I d eall y , t h e addit i o n al co st o f m o n i t o r in g n eeded t o dev e l o p T M DL s wo ul d h a v e b een in co r p o r at ed in t h e an al y s i s descr i b e d ab o v e. Ho wev e r , in t h e t im e f r am e f o rt hi s r e po r t , it was n o t fe a s ib le t o ap p l y t h is ap p r o a c h
. A g e n e r a l e s t ima t e o f mo n i t o r in g c o s t s is p r o v id e d b e lo w . F e der a l , st at e, an d l o cal go v e r n m e nt s, di sch ar g er s, cit i zen s gr o ups an d o t h e r s cur r e nt l y per f o r m ex t e n s iv e wat e rqual it y m o n it o r in g f o ra wi de v ar i et y o f pur po s e s , r a n g in g f r o m b a s i c r e sear ch t o co m p l

i a n ce assessm ent . S o m e o f t h e ma j o rwat e rpr o g r a m s t h at pr o m pt sub s t a nt i a l m

o nit o r ing e f f o r t s in c l u d e :

7 N o teth at th eav e r ageadditio n a l c o s to f $100, 000 pe r o u tlie r r e pr e s e n ts a r a n g e f o r o u tlie r s e x te n d in g to as muc h as $1, 000, 000 pe r o u tlie r TM D Lo v e r an d above $154, 000. S e eT h e National Cos ts to D evelop T M

DLs , Ch a p t e r III. S e c t i o n B
. 2. c . f o r a de t a i l e d di s c us s i o n . 8 N o teth at b o t h th e u n if o r m r a tean d th etr an s itio n r a te w o u l d b e g e n e r a lly c o n s is te n t w ith th e p a c e o f d e v e l o p i n g T M D L s n eed ed t oco m p l y w i t h t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e co n s en t d e cr ees d i s c u s s e d i n S ect i o n I I
. 20� E v al uat in g wh et h e rwat e r s s uppo r t des i gn at ed us es , as r e qui r e d b y §305( b ) o f t h e Ac t ;

� A v o i din g po t e nt i a ll y

h ar m f u l

expo sur e s b y t h o s e usin g sur f ace wat e r s ( e . g . , mo n it o r in g o f s w immin g b each es, dr inkin g wat e rint akes, f i sh an d sh ellf i s h ) ;

� E v a l u a t in g w h e t h e r N P D E S d i s c h ar g e r s ar e in c o mp lia n c e w it h t h e i r p e r m it limit s ;

� O b ta in in g d a ta n e c e s s ar y to e s tab l i s h or r e v i s e w a te r q u a l it ys t a n d ar d s ; a n d

� S c i e nt if i c r e sear ch ( e . g , ch ar act er i z in g pr i s t in e wat e r s in o r dert o un der s t a n d h eal t hy eco sy st em s, st udyin g t h e im p act s o f aci d depo sit i o n )
. Ea c ho f t h e s e p u r p o s e s re q u i re s d if f e rin g s o rt s o f m o n it o rin g , int e rm s o f s c a le (n a t i o n a l , r e gi o n al , wat e r s h e d, st r eam , sit e ) , m e di a ( w at erco l u m n , b i o t a, sedim e nt s) , par a m e t e r s ( f l o w, t e mp e r a t u r e , p o llu t a nt s , b i o l o g ic a l a c t iv it ie s ) , t ime fr a m e

( c o nt inu in g , o n e - t ime , s h o r t t e r m / l o n g t e r m ) an d o t h e rdim e n s i o n s . I n addit i o n , t h e o v er all m o n i t o r in g st r a t e gi es dif f e racr o ss st at es. I n

s o me c a s e s , fo r s o me w a t e r b o d i e s in s o me s t a t e s , a v a ilab le mo n it o r in g d a t a w ill b e a d e q u a t e fo r t h e d e v e lo p m e nt o f a

T M D L
. I n o t h e r c a s e s , a d d it i o n a l mo n it o r in g d a t a w ill b e n e e d e d
. T h e e x t e nt t o w h ic h e x is t in g mo n i t o r in g w ill s u ffic e o r a d d i t i o n a l mo n it o r in g is n e e d e d fo r a ny g iv e n T M D L w ill d e p e n d o n s u c h fa c t o r s a s t h e n a t u r e o f t h e s t a t e ’ s mo n it o r in g p r o g r a m ( e . g . , p r imar ily a t fix e d s t a t io n s t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t a t e , o rmo r e in

- d e p t h mo n it o r in g o n a

r o t a t in g b a sin b a si s) , t h e ex t e n s iv en ess o f t h e ex i s t in g st at e pr o g r a m , t h e co m p le x it y o f t h e T M DL , p ar t ic u l ar ly t h e t y p e s o f s o u r c e s t h a t n e e d t o b e a d d r e s s e d , a n d t h e a v a ilab ilit y o f mo n it o r in g d a t a f r o m o t h e rso ur ces, such as dat a co llect ed b y US GS o rco llect ed f o rt h e dr inkin g wat e rpr o g r a m . T hus, t h er e i s a wi de v ar i at i o n acr o ss st at es in t h e degr ee t o whi c h addit i o n al m o n it o r in g i s l i k e l y

t o be ne e d e d in d e ve l o p ing a ny p ar t i c u l ar T M D L
. I n a d d it i o n , m o nit o r ing i s o f t e n d o ne t o achi e v e m u l

t i

p le o b j ect iv es, an d it i s n o t clearh o w t o appo r t i o n t h e co st s o f t h ese ef f o r t s. T h er ef o r e, E P A h a s n o t at t e m p t e d t o est ima t e in cr em ent a l m o n it o r in g n eeds o n a per - T MDL b a si s. I n st ead, E P A co n duct e d an in f o r mal sur v ey o f st at e m o n it o r in g pr o g r a m st af f t o o b t a in t h ei rj udgm ent s o n t h e t o t a l m o n it o r in g r e s o ur ces n eeded in t h ei rs t at e t o s uppo r t dev e l o pm ent o f all o f t h e st at e’ s T M DL s. T h e A g en cy sur v ey ed n in e div e r s e st at es ( C O, CT , K S , MD, OH, OK , OR, S C , WV ) r e pr esent in g a r a n g e o f geo g r aphi c l o cat i o n s , T M DLwo r k l o ads ( a f

act o ro f 20 dif f e r e n ce b e t w een t h e smalle st an d t h e l ar g est ) , an d ex i s t in g m o n it o r in g pr o g r a m s . E ach st at e o f

f e r e d an o p in i o n ab o u t t h e nu m b ero f m o n it o r in g st af f t h at m i g ht b e r e qui r e d t o pr o v i d e all m

o n it o r in g in f o r mat i o n n eeded f o rT M DLdev e l o pm ent in t h e st at e. S t at e st af f st r e ssed b o t h t h e un i que an d j udgm ent a l n a t u r e o f t h ei rr e s p o n s e s - - t h e es t ima t e s depen d ed o n s u ch s p ecif i c f act o r s as t h e aggr essiv e n e ss o f t h e st at e’ s T M DLdev e l o pm ent sch e dule, wh et h e ro rn o t t h e st at e h a s r o ut in el y

in t h e past co llect ed st r eam geo m et r y an d f l o w in f o r mat i o n , t h e ex t e nt t o wh i c h t h e st at e h a s r eceiv e d s upplem ent a l m o n it o r in g as s i s t an ce f r o m US GS an d o t h e r s , t h e m e t h o d s an d b u r d en o f

pr o o f t h at t h e st at e h a d appl i e d in l

i s t in g wat e r s , et c. 21E ach st at e’ s m o n it o r in g st af f wer e asked specif i call y

t o est ima t e h o w ma ny f

u ll t im e st af f equiv a le nt s ( F T E s ) wo ul d b e n ecessar y t o adequat e l y

m eet t h e int e n s iv e dat a n eeds f o rT M DL dev e l o pm ent t h at ar e n o t t y pi call y

addr essed b y t h e st at e’ s b r o a derwat e rqual it y ch ar act er i zat i o n ef

f o r t s f o r§303( d) l i s t in g , wat e rqual it y in v e nt o r i e s , an d o t h e rpur po s e s . T h e r e s p o n s e s r a n g ed f r o m 1. 5 t o 15 F T E s pery earperst at e, wit h so m e est ima t e s co n s i d er in g f i el d m o n it o r in g st af f o n l y

an d o t h e r s in cl udin g s uppo r t s t af f as well
. W hile t h e r e s p o n s e s im p l

i c it l y

co n s i d ert h e T M DL dev e l o pm ent sch e dules t o whi c h st at es ar e cur r e nt l y

co m m

it t e d, st at es wer e qui ck t o po int o u t t h a t t h e s e s t a ffin g n e e d s w o u l d n o t lik e l y d imin is h o n c e t h e i r 1998 l i s t s wer e deal t wit h ; t h e r e s u l t in g s l ack wo ul d b e t aken up b y f

o ll o w- up m o n it o r in g an d ef f o r t s as s o ci at ed wit h f

u t u r e as s e s s m ent s an d 303( d) l i s t in g s . T o b e gin ex t r apo l at in g t h e n in e st at e r e spo n ses t o t h e r e ma in dero f t h e n a t i o n , we r e l a t e d each st at e’ s est ima t e o f i

t s T M DL m o n it o r in g n eeds t o t h e mile s o f p o llu t a nt
- imp a i r e d §303( d)

­ l i s t e d wat e r s in t h e st at e. T h e r e sul t in g est ima t e s r a n g ed f r o m o n e m o n it o r in g F T E n eeded per 2, 402 mile s o f imp a i r e d w a t e r s t o o n e F T E p e r 509 mile s o f imp a i r e d w a t e r s . T h e a v e r a g e a c r o s s t h e s u r v ey ed s t at es was o n e F T E per1, 168 mile s . D iv i d in g t h e nu mb e r o f p o llu t a nt
- imp a i r e d mile s in t h e n a t i o n b y 1 , 168 mile s mo n it o r e d p e r F T E , w e e s t ima t e t h a t r o u g h ly 247 F T E s ar e n e e d e d n a t i o n w i d e f o r TM D L -re l a t e d m o n it o rin g . 9 Ho wev e r , we co n s i d ert hi s ma y b e a l o w es t ima t e , s in ce s o m e s t at es ’ j udgm ent s appear ed t o in cl ude o n l y

m o n it o r in g f i el d s t af f

, an d n o t t h e addit i o n al pl an n in g , l ab o r a t o r y an d s uppo r t s e r v ic e s t h e y w ill n e e d
. At $70, 000 perF T E ( y ear2000 do ll ar s ) , 10 t h e in cr em ent a l co st o f m

o n it o r in g f o rT M DLdev e l o pm ent i s t h er ef o r e es t ima t e d at $17. 3 millio n a n nu a lly. C) F e d e r a lS h a r e of TM DL Devel o p m en tCos t s W e a s s u me din t h is a n a l ys is t h a t in fo r ma t io n t h a t is r o u t in e l y p r o v id e d b y o t h e r g o v e r n me nt a g e n c i e s , s u c h a s t h e U
. S
. D e p ar t me nt o f A g r i c u lt u r e , w ill c o nt inu e t o b e p r o v id e d , a n d h a v e n o t e s t ima t e d t his c o s t . W e r e c o g n iz e t h a t t h e r e lik e l y w ill b e in c r e a s e d d e ma n dfo r t echn i cal assi st an ce as a r e sul t o f t h e T M DLpr o g r a m , b u t h a v e n o t est ima t e d t h e co st at t r i b ut ab le t o addit i o n al t echn i cal assi st an ce t h at o t h e ragen ci es ma y pr o v i d e f o rT M DLdev e l o pm ent . A l t h o u g h s t a t e s h a v e t h e p r imar y r e s p o n s i b ilit y fo r a d min is t e r in g t h e T M D L p r o g r a m, E P A i s r e spo n si b le f o rpr o v i d in g t echn i cal assi st an ce an d f u n d in g t o t h e st at es f o rt hi s wo r k
. I n addit i o n , E P A pr o v i d es f o rt h e o v er all ma n a gem e nt o f t h e pr o g r a m , in cl udin g r e v i ew an d

9 T h en a t i o n a l t o t a l n u m b e r o f m i l e s i m pa i r e db y po l l u t a n t s o r po l l u t a n t -r e l a t e dpo l l u t i o n i s 288, 274 (267, 231 s t r e a m m i l e s a n d 20, 643 l a kea c r e s c o n v e r t e d t os t r e a m m i l e s )
. G i v e n t h a tm u c h o f t h em o n i t o r i n g e f f o r t is e x p e n d e din g e ttin g toan d f r o m th emo n ito r e d s ite s , w e b e lie v emile ag eis a r e as o n ab le r o u g h p r o x y f

o r mo n ito r i n g w o r k lo ad in a s t ate - - b e tte r th an e ith e r n u mb e r o f w a te r s o r n u mb e r o f TM D L s ( c au s e s )
. 10 Th e d e f a u lt v a lu e f o r th ety p i c a l c o s t o f an F TE in th e S t ate W a te r Q u ality M a n a g e me n t R e s o u r c e N e e d s M o de l i s $70, 000, i n c l udi n g s a l a r y , a l l o v e r h e a d a n d a d m i n i s t r a t i v ee xpe n s e s . 22appr o v al o f l

i s t s o f im p ai r e d wat e r s an d T M DL s . E P A i s al s o r e s p o n s i b le f o rdev e l o pin g T M DL s in

so m e ci r c um st an ces. E P A i s pr es ent l y

b udget in g al m

o s t $22 millio n a n nu a lly fo r t h e T M D L p r o g r a m. O f t h is fu n d in g , ab o u t $ 9 millio n is fo r s uppo r t o f pr o g r a m s t af f in Headquar t er s an d t h e t e n E P A r e g i o n a l o ffic e s . A n a d d it i o n a l $ 2
. 6 millio n is a v a ilab le fo r c o nt r a c t s t o s uppo r t T M DLr e l a t e d wo r k
. T h e r e ma in in g $10 millio n is c o nt r a c t fu n d in g t h a t is a v a ilab le t o t h e R e g i o n s t o s uppo r t t h e dev e l o pm ent o f T M DL s wh er e E P A i s r e qui r e d t o dev e l o p t h e T M DL s un dera co n s ent agr eem ent o rco ur t o r dero rh a s o t h e r w i s e agr eed t o dev e l o p a T M DL f

o ra st at e. I n

addit i o n , E P A pr o v i d es gr ant s t o st at es t o im p le m e nt Clean W a t e rA c t pr o g r a m s , in cl udin g t h e T M DLpr o g r a m . T h ese gr ant pr o g r a m s an d t h e am o u nt s t h at can b e av ail ab le specif i call y

f

o rt h e T M DLpr o g r a m in cl ude:

– Sect ion 106 Wat e r P r ogr amGr ant s - - Fu n d in g fo rimp le me nt a t io n g r a nt s u n d e r t h i s co r e wat e rpr o g r a m in cr eas ed f r o m $115 millio n in 2000 t o $170 millio n in F Y 2001, wit h an in di cat i o n f

r o m t h e C o n g r e s s t h at t h e $55 millio n in c r e a s e w a s asso ci at ed wit h t h e T M DLpr o g r a m .

– Sect ion 319 Nonpoint P o l l u t i on Cont r o lGr ant s – Fu n d in g fo rimp le me nt a t io n o f s t at e n o np o int s o ur ce po ll u t i o n co nt r o l pr o g r a m s in cr eas ed f r o m $200 millio n in

2000 t o $237 millio n in F Y 2001. E P A h a s pr o v i d ed t h at s t at es ma y us e up t o 20% o f t hi s f u n d in g ( i
. e . ab o u t $47 millio n ) t o d e v e lo p T M D L s .

– P l anning F unds f r omState R e vol ving L oan F unds Gr ants -- U n d e r s e c t i o n 604( b ) ( 3 ) o f t h e C lean W a t e rA c t , s t at es ma y us e up t o o n e per cent o f gr ant f u n d s ( o r$100, 000, whi c h e v e ri s gr eat er ) f o rpl an n in g an d r e l a t e d pur po s e s , in cl udin g dev e l o pm ent o f T M DL s . I n F Y 2001, t h e t o t a l f

u n d in g av ail ab le un dert hi s aut h o r it y was $14 millio n .

23- - 

### VI. C o s t s t o P o l l u t a n tS o u rces t oIm p l em en t TM DLs I n

a

T M D L , s o me p o int a n d/ o r n o np o int s o u r c e s w ill b e a s s i g n e d a llo w ab le lo a d s t h a t ar e le s s t h a n t h e lo a d s t h e y c u r r e nt ly d i s c h ar g e . T h e s e s o u r c e s w ill in c u r s o me c o s t s t o r e d u c e t h e i r l o ads f r o m cur r e nt le v e l s t o t h e l o werle v e l s assi gn ed b y t h e T M DL
. I t i s t h ese co st s t o r e duce l o ads t h at we co n s i d ert o b e asso ci at ed wit h t h e T M DLpr o g r a m an d t h at we est ima t e in t hi s ch apt e r . 11 K e y As s u m p t i ons of t h e Anal ys is S e v e r a l key assum p t i o n s ser v e as a f o un dat i o n f

o rt hi s an al y s i s . 1) T h e co st est ima t e s ar e f o rm easur es t o co nt r o l po int an d n o n p o int so ur ces t o im p le m e nt T M DL s f o rt h e im p ai r e d wat e r s in cl uded in t h e s t at es ’ 1998 §303( d) lis t s . 2) F o rt h ese im p ai r e d wat e r s , we co unt as co st s t o po ll u t a nt so ur ces t h e addit i o n al co nt r o l s asso ci at ed wit h t h e T M DL s b e y o n da b a sel in e t h at in cl udes: W h at ev erco nt r o l s wer e in pl ace at po int an d n o n p o int so ur ces wh en t h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s wer e dev e l o ped; an d

– A ssum e d co m p l

i a n ce wit h all appl i cab le cur r e nt t echn o l o gy - b ased re q u i re m e nt s . Vi ewed in an o t h e rway , t h e an al y s i s est ima t e s t h e in cr em ent a l co st s t o po ll u t a nt so ur ces o f im p le m e nt in g T M DL s r e l a t iv e t o t h e s o ur ces ’ b a s e l in e in 1998, b u t ex cl udin g t h e co s t s o f w h a t e v e r a m o u nt o f t his fu r t h e r p r o g r e s s w ill b e a c hie v e d t h r o u g h me e t in g t e c hn o lo g y - b a s e d r e qui r e m e nt s t h at wer e un m e t as o f 1998. S e v e r a l aspect s o f h o w we def in e t h e b a sel in e an d T M DLco st s f o rpo ll u t a nt so ur ces deser v e m o r e expl an at i o n :

� W h en t h e 1998 l i s t s wer e dev e l o ped, ma ny po ll u t a nt s o ur ces h a d al r eady im p le m e nt ed co nt r o l m easur es o rBMP s b e y o n dt h o s e r e qui r e d b y t echn o l o gy b a sed st an dar d s. Many po int so ur ces h a d im p le m e nt ed adv a n ced t r eat m e nt me a s u r e s a s r e q u i r e d b y w a t e r q u a lit y- b a s e d e fflu e nt limit s ( W Q B E L s ) in t h e i r N P D E S p e r m it s . M a ny no np o ints o u r c e s ha d im p le m e nt e d B M P s vo l u nt ar il y

o r b ecause o f in cent iv e pr o g r a m s o rst at e r e qui r e m e nt s. T h er ef o r e, a sub s t a nt i a l

11 N o teth at s o me o f th e s e s a me c o s t s c o u l d b ein c u r r e d in th eab s e n c e o f a TM D L , in c l u d i n g th e p e r i o d b e t w e e n l i s t i n g a n d t h ede v e l o pm e n to f t h eT M D L , s i n c e§301(b )(1)(C) o f t h eCl e a n W a t e r A c tr e qui r e s w a t e r q u a lity

- b as e d e f f l u e n tlimits ( W Q B EL s ) f o r N P D E S p e r m itte e s as s t r i n g e n t as n e c e s s a r y tome e t w a te r q u a lity st a n d a r d s. 24am o u nt o f t h e co nt r o l s b e y o n dt echn o l o gy - b ased st an dar d s n eeded in o r dert o at t a in wat e rqual it y st an dar d s ma y h a v e al r eady b een put in pl ace b y t h e t im e t h e 1998 l i s t s wer e dev e l o ped, b u t h a d n o t y e t r e s u l t ed in at t a in m e nt o f wat e rqual i t y st an d ar d s.

� By t h e sam e t o ken , addit i o n al pr o g r e ss n eeded t o m eet wat e rqual it y st an dar d s f o r t h e 1998 §303( d)

- l i s t e d wat e r s h a s pr o b ab l y

o ccur r e d s in ce t h ey wer e l i s t e d. Sin c e 1998 o rs o , ma ny m o r e po int s o ur ces h a v e in s t alle d adv a n ced t r eat m e nt m eas ur es a s r e q u i r e dby WQ B E L s a n d ma ny m o r e no np o ints o u r c e s ha ve im p le m e nt e d desi r ab le BMP s . T hus so m e o f t h e co st s we est ima t e in t hi s r e po r t as n eeded t o m

eet wat e rqual it y st an dar d s h a v e al r eady b een spent . W e est ima t e co st s t o m eet wat e rqual it y s t an dar d s r e l a t iv e t o a ci r ca 1998 b a s e l in e; t h es e co s t s t h at we e s t ima t e ar e g r e a t e r t h a n w ill b e n ecessar y if

we wer e t o m easur e t h em r e l a t iv e t o a cur r e nt 2001 b a s e l in e o rat t h e t im e wh en t h e T M DL i s dev e l o ped acco r d in g t o t h e 10- 25 y eart im e f r am e in t h e J u l y

2000 r u le .

� W e do n o t co unt as co st s asso ci at ed wit h T M DL s t h o s e co st s t o po ll u t a nt so ur ces t h at h a v e y e t t o b e in cur r e d t o m eet ex i s t in g t echn o l o gy - b ased st an dar d s. S o m e o f t h e p r o g r e s s n e e d e d t o me e t w a t e r q u a lit y s t a n d ar d s w ill c o me a s s o u r c e s me e t a s y e t
- u n m e tt e c hno l o g y - b a s e d r e q u i r e m e nt s , m o s t no t abl y

t h e r e q u i r e m e nt s per t ain in g t o st o r m wat e r , CS Os an d S S O s ( s o m e o f t h ese, b ecause o f st at ut o r y r e qui r e m e nt s, ar e co n s i d er ed ex i s t in g r e qui r e m e nt s, ev en t h o ugh specif i c r e gul at i o n s ar e un derdev e l o pm ent )
. T h e co st s o f m eet in g t h ese t echn o l o gy - b ased s t a n d ar d s w ill b e s u b s t a nt ia l, a n dfo rma ny w a t e r s t h e s e a d d it i o n a l c o nt r o l e ffo r t s w ill b e c r it ic a l t o a t t a in in g w a t e r q u a lit y s t a n d ar d s . H o w e v e r , t e c hn o lo g y - b a s e d r e qui r e m e nt s an d t h ei rasso ci at ed co st s ar e pur suant t o sect i o n s o f t h e Clean W a t e r A c t o t h e rt h an §303 ( T M D L s )
. Di s c h ar g er s ar e an d w ill b e r e q u i r e d t o me e t t h e s e t echn o l o gy - b ased st an dar d s r e gar d le ss o f wh et h e ra T M DL i s est ab l i s h e d o rn o t . Co n s equent l y , we do n o t in cl ude t h ese b a sel in e co st s in o u ran al y s i s o f co st s t o di sch ar g er s asso ci at ed wi t h

t h e T M DLpr o g r a m . Cos t s and Savings T h atAr e NotE s t i m a t e d T his s t u d y a t t e mp t s c o mp r e h e n s iv e l y t o e s t ima t e t h e c o s t s t h a t p o llu t a nt s o u r c e s w ill in c u r t o a c hie v e t h e lo a d r e d u c t i o n s t h a t w ill lik e l y b e r e q u i r e d b y t h e e v e nt u a l T M D L s fo r w a t e r s lis t e d o n t h e St at es ’ 1998 303( d) l i s t s . Giv e n t hi s o b j ect iv e, we want t o b e cleart h at t h e s t udy expl i c it l y d o es n o t est ima t e sev e r a l so r t s o f co st s:

� C o s ts f o r activities other than abating loads f r

om pollutant s our ces . W e d o n o t est ima t e t h e co st s t h at US DA an d o t h e ragen ci es m i g ht in curin pr o v i d in g in f o r mat i o n an d t echn i cal assi st an ce t o f ar m er s wh o n eed t o r e duce t h ei rl o ads. Ho wev e r , t o t h e ex t e nt t h at F e der a l , S t at e o ro t h e ragen ci es t h em selv es ar e t h e o w n e r s o f fa c ilit ie s o rla n d s t h a t ar e p o llu t a nt s o u r c e s ( e . g . , milit ar y b a s e s , F e d e r a l f o r e st an d r a n g e l a n d s) , we do est ima t e t h ese co st s .
25� B r oader s o cial cons equences that might occur as pollutant s our ces meet TM DL req u i rem e n ts. W e est ima t e t h e co st s f o rso ur ces t o r e duce t h ei rl o ads t o m eet T M DL r e qui r e m e nt s, b u t t h ese act i o n s ma y h a v e f u r t h e rco n s equen ces f o rso ci et y . W e h a v e n o t at t e m p t e d t o descr i b e t h e so ci al co n s equen ces o f t h ese act i o n s o rt o assi gn m o n e t ar y v a l u es t o t h ese ch an ges. F o rex am ple, hi gh erwat e ran d sewer r a t e s as a r e sul t o f in cr eased co st s f o r

P O T W t r eat m e nt ma y in cr ease t h e nu m b er o f

h o useh o l ds f acin g hi gh r a t e s an d pl ace gr eat ereco n o m i c st r e ss o n t h ese h o useh o l ds. I n addit i o n , in cr eased pr o duct i o n co st s f o rf ar m er s im p le m e nt in g a g r i c u lt u r a l B M P s w ill lik e l y r e s u lt in r e d u c e d a g r i c u lt u r a l o u t p u t a n d/ o r hi g h e r agr i cul t ur al co m m

o di t y

pr i ces. W e al so do n o t est ima t e t h e di st r i b u t i o n al im p act s o f

t h e co st s t o po ll u t a nt so ur ces. I f po ll u t a nt so ur ces ar e par t i c ul ar l y

co n cent r at ed geo g r aph i call y , t h er e ma y b e l o cal o rr e gi o n al co n s equen ces. On t h e o t h e rh a n d , f ar m in g eco n o m i e s in o t h e rar eas n o t af f ect ed b y T M DL s ma y see in cr eased act iv it y t r i gger e d b y r e duced pr o duct i o n in t h e ar eas af f ect ed b y T M DL s an d r e sul t in g hi gh erco m m

o di t y

pr i ces. T h ese so r t s o f seco n d ar y an d ul t ima t e im p act s c a n n o t b e a s s e s s e d w it h o u t b r o a d e c o n o mic mo d e lin g o f t h e s e c t o r s w it hin w h ic h t h e T M DL

- a f f ect ed po ll u t a nt so ur ces o p er at e. T hi s so r t o f m o del in g i s b e y o n dt h e sco p e o f t hi s an al y s i s . Ho wev e r , we expect t h at t h ese b r o a derco n s equen ces o f T M D L c o s t s w ill b e a

s ma ll fr a c t io n a l in c r e a s e in t h e c u r r e nt c o s t s o f t h e a c t iv it ie s t h e po ll u t a nt so ur ces co n duct
.

� C o s ts f o r pollutant s our ces af f

ecting w a ter s f ound in the f u tur e to need TM DLs
. T h i s an al y s i s addr es s e s co s t s r e l a t in g t o cur r e nt l y

im p ai r e d wat e r s o n St at es ’ 1998 303( d) l i s t s . M o r e wat e r s ma y b e l i s t e d in t h e f u t u r e as n eedin g T M DL s . On t h e o t h e rs i de o f t h e co in , s o m e o f t h e cur r e nt l y

l

i s t e d 303( d) wat e r s w ill e v e nt u a lly a c h ie v e s t a n d ar d s o r o t h e r w is e r e mo v e dfr o m t h e lis t o f imp a i r e d w a t e r s w it h o u t n eedin g a T M DL
. W hile we di d, ab o v e, est ima t e t h e po t e nt i a l co st s t o dev e l o p f u t u r e T M DL s, b ecause we h a v e n o b a si s f o rpr o j ect in g wh er e t h ese as- y et
u n lis t e d w a t e r s w ill b e fo u n d a n d w hic h p o llu t a nt s o u r c e s mig ht n e e d t o b e addr essed b ecause o f t h em , we wer e un ab le t o est ima t e im p le m e nt at i o n co st s b e y o n dt h o s e f o rwat e r s l i s t e d in 1998. Ot h e rso r t s o f co st s ar e o m it t e d f r o m t hi s an al y s i s n o t b ecause we def in e t h em as o u t s i d e o f

o u ran al y

t i cal sco p e, b u t b ecause we h a v e b een un successf ul

in f

in d in g a way t o est ima t e t h em w ithin th e tim e a n d d a ta c o n s tr a int s f o rthi s s t u d y . T h e ma j o r s o r t s of c o s t s th a t w e h a v e om itte d b ecause o f an al y

t i cal r e so ur ce limit a t io n s in c l u d e :

� Cos ts f o r achieving load r e ductions f r

om s ever al dif f

i cult- to- analyz e nonpoint s our ce types . W e e s tima te th e c o s t s f o r T M D L

- p r o m p te d l o a d r e d u c ti on s f r om agr i cul t ur e, co n f in ed l iv est o ck, silv i c ul t u r e an d o n - s it e wast ewat ert r eat m e nt sy st em s ( s ept i c t a nk s, et c. )
. L i kel y

im p o r t a nt b u t o m it t e d n o n p o int so ur ce t y pes in cl ude r e so ur ce ex t r act i o n ( m in es an d o il an d gas dev e l o pm ent ) , at m o sph e r i c d e p o sit i o n , co nt am in at edin - s t r eam sed im e nt s, n a t u r a l so u r ces ( e . g . , sal t sp r in g s, n a t u r a l m in er al depo sit s ) an d l a n ddi spo s al ( b o t h f

o r mal an d in f o r mal sit e s)
. W e es t ima t e t h at t h es e o m it t e d s o ur ce t y pes acco unt f o rab o u t 14 % o f all 303( d) r iv e r 26mile s a n d 2 2 % o f a ll 303( d) l ake acr es . So m e o f t h es e o m it t e d s o ur ce t y pes can e nt a il hi g h c o s t s fo rmit ig a t io n ( e . g . , s o me in s t a n c e s in v o lv in g d r e d g in g a n d di spo s in g o f co nt am in at ed in - s t r eam sedim e nt s)
. On t h e o t h e rh a n d , if im p ai r m ent fr o m o n e o f t h e s e s o u r c e t y p e s c a n n o t b e r e me d i e d o r w ill in v o lv e “ w id e s p r e a d so ci al an d eco n o m i c im p act s”, t h en t h e wat e rqual it y st an dar dgiv in g r i se t o t h e T M D Lma y b e r e v i s e d t h r o u g h a

u s e a t t a in ab ilit y a n a l ys is
.

� C o s ts f o r achieving any needed load r e duc tions f r

om point s our ces cover ed by gener a l per m its
. Ouran al y s i s o f T M DL

- r e l a t e d co st s f o rpo int so ur ce di sch ar g er s c o v e r s a ll p o int s o u r c e s fo r w hic h in d iv i d u a l N P D E S p e r mit s h a v e b e e n is s u e d
. Ho wev e r , t h er e ar e po t e nt i a ll y

385, 000 s o ur ces t o b e co v e r e d b y s t o r m w at er gen e r a l per m it s an d appr o x ima t e l y

52, 000 po int s o ur ces t h at ar e co v e r e d b y n o n s t o r mw a t e r N P D E S g e n e r a l p e r mit s . W e b e lie v e t h a t T M D L s w ill r ar e ly r e q u i r e f u r t h e rl o ad r e duct i o n s f r o m po int so ur ces t h at ar e cur r e nt l y

co v e r e d b y gen e r a l per m it s, an d t h at o u r o m i ssi o n o f t h ese so ur ces f r o m t h e co st an al y s i s r e sul t s in o n ly mo d e s t ly u n d e r e s t ima t in g c o s t s . I n

t h e s a me lig ht , imp le me nt a t io n o f T M D L s w ill r e s u lt , in s o me c a s e s , in s a v in g s t o po ll u t a nt so ur ces, f o rex am ple:
• Savings due to implementation of s o me nonpoint s our ce B M P s . I n so m e cases, BMP s ant i ci pat e d t o b e ado p t e d b y n o np o int so ur ces in o r dert o m eet l o ad r e duct i o n t ar g et s ma y yi el d sav in g s t h at par t l y

o rper h aps ev en l ar g el y

o f f s et t h e co st s o f t h e BMP s . F o rex am ple, we expect t h at nu t r i e nt ma n a gem e nt pl an n in g - - min imiz in g nu t r ie nt lo s s e s b y mo r e c ar e f u lly ma t c hin g t h e t imin g a n d a m o u nt o f nu t r ie nt ap p lic a t io n s t o e x a c t ly w h a t is n e e d e d b y c r o p s - - w ill b e w i d e ly a d o p t e d b y f

ar m er s in r e sp o n se t o T M D L s seek in g r e d u c t i o n s in nu t r i e nt l o ad s. N u t r i e nt ma n a g e me nt p l a n n in g w ill c o s t far m e r s mo n e y ( in d e v e lo p in g t h e p l a n s , in t e s t in g s o ils , e t c . ) , b u t it w ill a l s o yie l d s a v in g s in t e r m s o f r e d u c e d c o s t s fo r p u r c h a s e d co m m

e r c i a l f

e r t il i zer s. I t i s ex ceedin gl y

dif f i cul t t o pr o j ect wh at t h ese so r t s o f sav in g s m i g ht am o u nt t o if t h ese BMP s wer e appl i e d o n a wi despr ead b a si s, as we s imu la t e in t h is a n a l ys is
. I n

v i ew o f t h e v e r y l ar g e un cer t a int i es in est ima t in g t h e n a t i o n al sav in g s t h at m i g ht r e sul t f r o m wi despr ead im p le m e nt at i o n o f T M DL

- p r o m p t e d BMP s , we deci ded t o t r eat t h e po t e nt i a l sav in g s f r o m t h e BMP s in a dif f e r e nt ma n n e r f

r o m t h e co st s. W e expl i c it l y

est ima t e t h e co st s o f t h e BMP s an d di spl a y t h em as o u rest ima t e o f T M DL im p le m e nt at i o n co st s. W e al so dev e l o p s o me v e r y r o u g h q u a nt ifie d e s t ima t e s o f t h e p o t e nt ia l c o s t s a v in g s fr o m t h e B M P s , b u t , - - in a n ef

f o r t b o t h t o b e co n s er v a t iv e an d t o r eco gn i ze t h e m u ch gr eat erun cer t a int y o f t h e sav in g s e s tima te s - - w e c h oos e n o t to d i s p l a y th e s e s a v in g s e s tima te s orto n e t th e m ou t in th e tab le s s u mmar i z in g T M D Limp le me nt a t io n c o s t s . T hi s d e c i s i on n o t to d i s p l a y th e s a v in g s e s tima te s d o e s n o t m e a n th a t w e b e l i e v e th e m to be u n im p o r t a nto rno ne xi s t e nt . T o t h e c o nt r ar y , w e be l i e ve t h a tin ma ny c i r c u m s t a n c e s t h e s e B M P s w ill e n g e n d e r s u b s t a nt ia l s a v in g s t h a t o ffs e t s o me p o r t io n o f t h e B M P c o s t s . W e ar e 27- -

- -

- - un ab le , h o wev e r , t o est ima t e t h ese sav in g s wit h m u ch co n f i d en ce. F o rt h e f in a l v e r s i o n o f t hi s a n a l ys is , w e int e n d t o g a t h e r a d d it i o n a l d a t a t h a t w ill a llo w u s t o n ar r o w t h e r a n g e o f u n c e r t a int y in

o u rna t i o n a l s a ving s e s t ima t e s .
M e t h odol ogy – T h r ee Scenarios S u b j ect t o t h ese def in it i o n s ab o u t wh at co st s ar e in cl uded in t h e b a sel in e an d wh at co st s w e a ttr i b u t e to T M D L s , E P A e s tima te dth e c o s t s to p o ll u ta nt s o u r c e s f o rth e im p a i r e d w a te r s on t h e s t at es ’ 1998 §303( d) l i s t s un dereach o f t h r ee b r o a d s cen ar i o s : a “ L east F lex i b le T M DL P r o g r a m ” scen ar i o ; a “ M o d er at el y

Co st
- e f f ect iv e T M DL P r o g r a m ” scen ar i o ; an d a “ M o r e Co st
- E f f ect iv e T M DL P r o g r a m ” scen ar i o . T h e r e sul t s o f t h e an al y s i s ar e sum mar i zed in t hi s r e po r t . Fu ll det a il s o n t h e an al y s i s ar e pr o v i d ed in a s uppo r t in g co m p an i o n r e po r t : The N a tional C o s t s to I m

plement TM DLs
. T

h e “L eas t Fl exible T M DL P r

ogr am ” Scenar io T hi s s cen ar i o expl o r es wh at co s t s wo ul d r e s u l t if s t at es ch o s e t o r e s p o n d t o t h e 1998 l i s t o f

imp a i r e d w a t e r s b y u n ifo r mly in c r e a s in g c o nt r o ls o n a ll s o u r c e s , p o int a n d n o np o int , t h a t c o nt r i b u te th e im p a i r m e nt p o ll u ta nt to th e l i s te d w a te r . R a th e rth a n a ll o c a t in g l o a d s to th e m o s t si gn if i cant so ur ces o rt h o s e so ur ces t h at can m o st ef f i ci ent l y

r e duce l o ads, un dert hi s scen ar i o all so ur ces m u st ado p t addit i o n al co nt r o l s . T hi s scen ar i o , while un l i k el y

b ecause o f t h e hi gh p r o b ab ilit y t h a t it w ill o v e r - c o nt r o l s o u r c e s a n dimp o s e u nr e a s o n ab le c o s t s , in e ffe c t r e p r e s e nt s co nt inuin g t o im p le m e nt t h e wat e rqual it y - b a sed appr o ach es t h at h a v e b een used wh en a T M DL h a s n o t b een dev e l o ped. F o rex am ple, un derC lean W a t e rA c t §301( b ) ( 1 ) ( C ) , all NPDE S per m it s fo r p o int s o u r c e d i s c h ar g e r s mu s t in c l u d e limit s n ecessar y t o m eet wat e rqual it y st an dar d s. S imilar l y, u n d e r §319 o f t h e A c t , s t at es m u s t addr es s t h e n o n p o int s o ur ces t h at co nt r i b u t e t o im p ai r m ent o f wat e rb o di es ( t h o ugh n o t n ecessar il y

t h r o ugh r e gul at o r y m ech an i s m s , as ar e ma n d at ed f o rpo int s o ur ces t h r o ugh t h e NPDE S pr o g r a m )
. 12 Un dert hi s scen ar i o , t h ese co nt r o l s

12 S o m e o b s er v e r s h a v e p o s t u l a t ed a

d i f f e r e n t s cen a r i o i n t h e a b s e n ce o f T M D L s . T h es e o b s er v e r s e m p h as izeth at p o in t s o u r c e s ar e s u b j e c t to r e g u l ato r y c o n t r o ls u n d e r th e N P D E S p r o g r a m, wh ile n o n p o i n t s o u r c e s ar e g e n e r a lly n o t s u b j e c tto f e d e r a l r e g u l ato r y c o n t r o ls
. I f ac h i e v in g w a te r q u a lity s t an d a r d s w e r eto d e p e n d s o le ly o n f e d e r a l r e g u l ato r y au th o r itie s av ailab l e u n d e r th e C l e a n W a te r A c t, s t ate s o r EP A w o u l d b eab leto r e q u i r e f u r t h e r c o n t r o l e f f o r t s o n ly f

r o m p o in t s o u r c e s . N P D E S p e r m it limits f o r p o in t s o u r c e s w o u l d b e p r o g r e s s i v e ly tig h t e n e das n e c e s s a r y tomak e u p f o r u n c o n t r o lle d n o n p o i n t s o u r c e s . Un d e r th is “ p o i n t s o u r c e o n ly w o r s t- c a s e s c e n ar io ,” man y p o in t s o u r c e s w o u l d u ltimate l y n e e dtome e t e x ceed i n g l y co s t l y “z er o d i s c h a r g e” l i m i t s i n a n atte mp t to c o mp e n s a te f o r g r o w in g n o n p o i n t s o u r c elo ad s . W e r e g a r dth is s c e n ar ioas e x tr e m e l y u n r e alis tic an d w ill n o t an alyz eit. F o r man y imp a ir e d w a te r b o d ie s , th e c o n t r i b u tio n f r o m p o in t s o u r c e s is min i mal o r n o n - e x is te n t . A n y r e alis tic p r o g r a m toac h i e v e w a te r q u a lity st a n d a r d s i n a l l i m p a i r e dw a t e r s m u stse r i o u sl y a d d r e ss n o n p o i n tso u r c e s a s w e l l a s p o i n tso u r c e s. 28w o u l d b e imp le me nt e d u n ifo r mly a n d w i t h o u t fle x ib ilit y t o a ll s o u r c e s t h a t c o nt r i b u t e t o im p ai r m ent s . **O u**  **r M**  **e t**  **hodol o**  **g y**  **fo r E**  **s ti**  **m a**  **ti n**  **g C**  **o st**  **s t o**  **P o**  **l l**  **u t**  **a nt** **S our**  **ces – t h**  **e “Least F**  **l exi**  **bl e TM**  **D L**  **P r**  **o g**  **r a**  **m ”**  **S cenar**  **i o**  W e f o l l o w t h r ee st eps: 1. I dent i f y al l t he poi nt and nonpoi nt sour ces i n t he nat i on t hat appear t o cont r i but e an i m pai r m ent pol l u t ant t o one of t h e i m pai r ed w a t e r s on t he 1998 §303( d) l i s t s . 2

. A s s u me th a t e v e r y s u c h r e le v a n t s o u r c e w ill b e r equi r ed under t he N P D E S pr o g r a m or som ehow i nduced under t he 319 pr o g r a m t o i m pl em ent addi t i onal m easur es ( beyond t hose assum ed t o be i n pl ace al r eady t o m eet exi s t i n g t e chnol o g ybased st andar ds) t o abat e t h i s pol l u t i on. 3. E s t i m a t e t he cost s f o r each sour ce t o i m pl em ent an appr opr i a t e “ next t r eat m ent st ep” t hat w ill p r e s u m a b l y s u ffic i e n t ly r educe t he sour ce’ s di schar g e. T

h e “M oder a tely C o s t- e f

f

ective T M DL P r

ogr am ” Scenar io T h e “ M o d er at el y

Co st
- e f f ect iv e T M DL P r o g r a m ” scen ar i o dif f e r s f r o m t h e f i r s t scen ar i o in

t h at i t assum e s t h e use o f a m o r e car ef ul

T M DLpr o cess, in cl udin g n o n - un if o r m an d f lex i b le all o cat i o n am o n g so ur ces t o achi e v e co st ef f ect iv e r e duct i o n s. T hi s b e gin s wit h an assessm ent o f t h e im p ai r e d wat e rb o dy an d all t h e so ur ces t h at af f ect it . T h en t h e “ m o d er at el y

co st
- e f f ect iv e T M DL ” det e r m in es h o w m u ch l o ad f r o m all t h e so ur ces t o get h ercan b e t o le r a t e d, an d all o cat es t hi s all o wab le l o ad in so m e ma n n e ram o n g t h e r e spo n si b le so ur ces. I n

t h e least f lex i b le scen ar i o , ev er y so ur ce t h at di sch ar g es t h e im p ai r m ent po ll u t a nt will pr esumab l y

n eed t o im p le m e nt m easur es t o ab at e it s di sch ar g e. Wit h a “ m o d er at el y

co st
- e f f ect iv e T M DL , ” a m u ch f

in e rcalcul a t i o n i s ma de. T h e T M DLdet e r m in es ex act l y

whi c h so ur ces will n eed t o r e duce t h ei rl o ads, an d b y h o w m u ch
. Depen d in g o n t h e sev e r i t y

o f t h e im pai r m e nt , wit h a m o der a t e l y

co st
- e f f ect iv e T M DL , so m e wh er e b e t w een a f e w an d ma ny o f t h e so ur ces di sch ar g in g t h e im p ai r m ent po ll u t a nt ma y n o t h a v e t o r e duce t h ei rdi sch ar g e at all
. By addr essin g each so ur ce in i s o l at i o n an d r e qui r in g f u r t h e rco nt r o l s f r o m all o f t h em in div i duall y , t h e pr ev i o us “ L east F lex i b le T M DL P r o g r a m ” scen ar i o i s l i k el y

t o gr eat l y

o v er sh o o t t h e l o ad r e duct i o n n eeded t o at t a in w a t e r q u a l it y st an d ar d s. U n d e r t hi s scen ar i o , w hi c h d e scr i b e s E P A ’ s assu m p t i o n o f h o w T M D L s w ill n o r ma lly b e d e v e lo p e d a n dimp le me nt e d , t h e nu mb e r o f s o u r c e s t h a t h a v e t o r e d u c e t h ei r l o ads sh o u l d , in m o st cases, b e r e duced.
**O u**  **r M**  **e t**  **hodol o**  **g y**  **fo r E**  **s ti**  **m a**  **ti n**  **g C**  **o st**  **s t o**  **P o**  **l l**  **u t**  **a nt** **S our**  **ces – t h**  **e “M oder**  **a t**  **e l**  **y C**  **o st**  **- e**  **f f**  **ect i**  **ve TM D**  **L P**  **r o**  **g ra**  **m ”**  **S cenar**  **i o**  W e st art w i t h t he st eps f o r t he “ Least Fl exi b l e TM D LP r o g r a m ” scenar i o : a) I dent i f y al l sour ces r e sponsi b l e f o r i m pai r m ent s; 2) E s t i m a t e cost s f o r al l of t hem t o i m pl em ent an appr opr i a t e “ next t r eat m ent st ep”

. W e t hen:

� S c al e t hese cost s dow n t o r e f l ect t he aver a g e per cent a g e l oad r educt i on i dent i f i ed i n t y pi cal TM D L s r e l a t i ve t o t h e l oad r educt i on t hat w oul d be obt ai ned i f al l sour ces w e r e t o i m pl em ent t he “ next t r eat m ent st ep”

. 29T h e “M or e C o s t- E f

f

ective T M DL P r

ogr am ” Scenar io N e it h e r t h e C le a n W a t e r A c t n o r E P A ’ s imp le me nt in g r e g u l a t io n s p r e s c r ib e h o w a

t o t a l ma x im u m dail y

l o ad i s t o b e all o cat ed am o n g t h e so ur ces t h at di sch ar g e t h e im p ai r m ent po ll u t a nt . T h e s t a t e ma y a s s i g n r e s p o n s i b ilit ie s a m o n g s o u r c e s fo rlo a d r e d u c t i o n s a s t h e s t a t e w i s h e s . D iffe r e nt a llo c a t io n s w ill r e s u lt in d iffe r e nt t o t a l c o s t s o f a c hie v in g t h e d e s i r e d t o t a l lo a d r e duct i o n , as a f u n c t i o n o f t h e dif f e r in g co st s perpo un d f o rt h e v ar i o u s so ur ces t o r e duce t h ei r lo a d s . I n g e n e r a l, t h e t o t a l c o s t s o f a c hie v in g t h e t ar g e t lo a d r e d u c t i o n w ill b e lo w e rif t h e s o u r c e s w i t h

lo w e r p e r u n it c o nt r o l c o s t s ar e a s s i g n e d r e s p o n s i b ilit y fo r a c hie v in g t h e b u lk o f t h e desi r e d t o t a l l o ad r e duct i o n . W e use t h e t e r m “ m o r e co st
- e f f ect iv e wast el o a d all o cat i o n ” t o d e n o t e a

s it u a t io n in w hic h t h e s t a t e a t t e mp t s t o r e d u c e a g g r e g a t e c o s t s b y a s s i g n in g r e s p o n s i b ilit y f o r a c hi e v in g m o s t of th e tota ld e s i r e d l o a d r e d u c ti on to s o u r c e s th a t h a v e r e l a tiv e l yl o w c o s t s of achi e v in g l o ad r e duct i o n s. A l t e r n at iv el y , t h e sam e eco n o m i call y

ef f i ci ent r e sul t ( achi e v in g a desi r e d t o t a l l o ad r e duct i o n in t h e least
- co st ma n n e r ) can b e achi e v e d, in t h eo r y , giv e n any in it i a l a llo c a t io n o f c o nt r o l r e s p o n s i b ilit ie s , if “ t r a d in g ” is a llo w e d a f t e r t h e a llo c a t io n a n d p e r mit limit s ar e s e t b y t h e T M D L
. Wit h t r a d in g , a ny s o u r c e t h a t is a s s i g n e d r e s p o n s i b ilit y fo r a

lo a d r e d u c t i o n i s f r ee t o achi e v e t h at l o ad r e duct i o n it self , o rt o b u y t h e equiv a le nt l o ad r e duct i o n f

r o m an o t h e r so ur ce t h at m i g ht b e ab le t o pr o v i d e it at le sserco st . W h at ev ert h e in it i a l all o cat i o n , t r adin g co ul d el

i c it l o ad r e duct i o n s f r o m t h e l o west co st so ur ces. T h e “ M o r e C o s t
- E ffe c t iv e T M D L P r o g r a m”s c e n ar io r e c o g n iz e s t h e p o s s i b ilit y o f r e ducin g T M DLco st s t o po int so ur ce di sch ar g er s t h r o ugh eit h eraddit i o n al “ c o s t
- ef f ect iv e wast el o a d all o cat i o n s ” o rt h r o ugh t r adin g, o rb o t h
. E i t h ero f t h ese appr o ach es wo ul d r e duce t h e ev ent u al co st s t o di sch ar g er s well b e l o w wh at t h ey wo ul d b e if T M DL s assi gn ed l o ad r e duct i o n s o n a co st
- n eut r al b a si s ( e . g . , if l o ad r e duct i o n s wer e det e r m in ed o n a sim p le pr o p o r t i o n al r o ll b ack b a s i s )
. W e e xp e c t t h a t p r e s s u r e t o a d o p t c o s t
- min imiz in g ap p r o a c h e s w ill b u ild , a n dmo r e T M D L s w ill t e n d t o w ar d t h is “ m o r e c o s t
- e ffe c t iv e ” mo d e l. N o t e , t h o u g h , t h a t t h e r e ma y b e s o me in st an ces wh er e o t h e rco n cer n s ( e . g . , equit y o rco n cer n ab o u t im p le m e nt at i o n an d en f o r cem ent co m p le x i t i es at t e n d ant t o t r adin g) pr ev ent use o f t h ese co st
- m in im i z in g appr o ach es. **O u**  **r M**  **e t**  **hodol o**  **g y**  **fo r E**  **s ti**  **m a**  **ti n**  **g C**  **o st**  **s t o**  **P o**  **l l**  **u t**  **a nt** **S our**  **ces – t h**  **e “M or**  **e C o**  **st -**  **E f**  **f ect**  **i ve TM**  **D L**  **P r**  **o g**  **r a**  **m ”**  **S cenar**  **i o**  We s t a rt b y e s tima tin g t he cost s f o r t he “ R easonabl e TM D LP r o g r a m ”

. W e t hen:

� S c al e t hese cost s dow n t o r e f l ect t he t y pi cal per cent a g e cost savi n g s t hat m i g ht be r eal i z ed t h r o u g h addi t i onal
“ c ost - ef f e ct i v e w a st el oad al l o cat i ons” or t r adi n g . I n

pr o j ect in g wh at f u t u r e T M DL s ar e l i k el y

t o r e qui r e f o rt h e im p ai r e d wat e rb o di es, we b a sed sev e r a l key assum p t i o n s o n o u rf in d in gs f r o m r e v i ewin g t h e co nt ent o f a sam p le o f f

if

t een r ecent l y

co m p le t e d T M DL s. T h i s r e v i ew i s sum mar i zed in N a tional C o s ts to I m

plement TM DLs , A

p p e n d ix A - - “ G r o u n d

- T r u t hin g t h e I m p le m e nt a t i o n C o s t A n a l ys is A s s u mp t i o n s . ” T his s a mp le o f

fift e e n is s ma lle r t h a n w e w o u l dlik e , a n dit w ill b e in c r e a s e dfo r t h e fin a l v e r s io n o f t his r e p o r t . T h e ma jo rfin d in g s fr o m t h is r e v i e w ar e : 30• T MDL s co m m

o n l y , b u t n o t alway s , addr ess upst r eam po int so ur ces in addit i o n t o t h o s e p o int s o u r c e s d i s c h ar g in g t h e imp a i r m e nt p o llu t a nt d i r e c t ly int o t h e imp a ir e d wat e r ;
• T h e aggr egat e l o ad r e duct i o n n eeded f r o m po int so ur ces i s o f t e n o b t a in ed wit h o u t re q u i rin g f u rt h e r c o nt ro l s f r o m a ll o f t h e p o int s o u r c e s d i s c h arg in g t h e im p a i rm e nt p o llu t a nt ;
• T he g e o g r ap h i ce x t e nto f no np o ints o u r c e s f r o m w hi c h f u r t he r c o nt r o l s ar e r e qui r e d i s t y pi call y

m u ch le ss t h an t h e ent i r e co unt y ( s ) sur r o un din g t h e im p ai r e d wat e r ;
• F o rb o t h po int an d n o np o int s o ur ces , t h e degr ee o f l o ad r e duct i o n t h at i s r e qui r e d i s ve r y o f t e n le s s t h a n t h a tw hi c h w o u l dbe a c hi e ve d if

a ll p o inta n dno np o int s o u r c e s w e r e t o im p le m e nt “t he ne xtt r e a t m e nts t e p ”
. Mo r e specif i call y , in est ima t in g t h e co st s o f t h e “ M o d er at el y

Co st
- e f f ect iv e T M DL P r o g r a m ” an d “ M o r e Co st
- E f f ect iv e T M DL P r o g r a m ” scen ar i o s, we dr ew t h e f o ll o win g q u a nt it a t iv e r e la t i o n s hip s fr o m t h e s a mp le o f t h e fift e e n T M D L s :
• F o rpo int so ur ces. I n ab o u t h a lf t h e T M DL s, t h e aggr egat e l o ad r e duct i o n act uall y r e qui r e d o f po int s o ur ces was r o ugh l y

equiv a le nt t o wh at wo ul d b e achi e v e d if all p o int s o u r c e s c o nt r i b u tin g to im p a i r m e nt of th e w a te r b o d yw e r e to im p le m e nt th e “ n ex t t r eat m e nt st ep”. I n t h e o t h e rh a lf o f t h e T M DL s, “ t h e n e x t t r eat m e nt st ep” f o rall po int so ur ces wo ul d r e sul t in ab o u t t w i ce as m u ch aggr egat e l o ad r e duct i o n as was act uall y

n eeded.
• F o rn o np o int so ur ces. T h e si ze o f t h e wat e r s h e d f r o m whi c h m o st T M DL s r e qui r e d n o n p o int so ur ce l o ad r e duct i o n s was f arsmalle rt h an t h e si ze o f a t y pi cal co unt y . T h e acr eage o f m o st n o n p o int so ur ce T M DLwat e r s h e ds r a n g ed f r o m ab o u t 5 % t o ab o u t 40 % as l ar g e as t h e acr eage o f t h e co unt y ( s ) wi t hin whi c h t h e im p ai r e d wat e rb o dy was l o cat ed. T h ese quant it at iv e r e l a t i o n shi p s sh o u l db e r e gar d ed as t e nt at iv e pen d in g t h e ev al uat i o n o f mo r e c o mp le t e d T M D L s . 13

13 N o teth at w ear e n o t p r e s u m in g to u s eth is s m all s a mp le o f 1 5 c a s e s as a b a s i s f o r p r o j e c tin g th e n a tio n a l co s t s o f T M D L s . We h a v e n o tes t i m a t ed i m p l em en t a t i o n co s t s f o rs o u r ces i n ea ch o f t h e 1 5 ca s e s a n d t h en e x tr ap o l ate d o r s c ale d u p f r o m th e s e c a s e s toth e n a tio n as a wh o l e . I n s t e a d , w ead o p te d th eap p r o a c h d e s c r i b e d h e r e o f e s timatin g th eimp l e m e n tatio n c o s t s f o r all o f th eimp a ir e d w a te r b o d ie s in th e n a tio n b y e m p l o y in g a s e r i e s o f

s i mp lif y

i n g as s u mp tio n s ab o u t wh at all TM D L s w ill r e q u i r e o f r e le v a n t s o u r c e s . Un d e r th is ap p r o a c h , w e u s e th e 1 5 c a s e s t u d i e s n o t as th e f u n d ame n tal b a s i s f r o m wh ic h to e x tr ap o l ate , b u t in s t e a din a mo r elimite d w a y to s h e d l i g h to n t h er e a s o n a b l e n e s s o f o u r a s s u m p t i o n s . T h ec a s es t udi e s s ugge s tt h a ta c t u a l T M D L s o n l y v e r y r a r e l y r e q u i r elo ad r e d u c tio n s as lar g eas th o s e p r e s u m e d u n d e r o u r S c e n ar io 1 ( a ll r e le v a n t p o in t s o u r c e s imp l e m e n t th e n e x ttr e a tme n t s t e p , an d all r e le v a n t n o n p o i n t s o u r c e s in th e e n tir e c o u n ty imp l e m e n t th e n e x ttr e a tme n t s t e p )
. Th e c a s es t udi e s t h us s ugge s tt h a tS c e n a r i o1 r e a l l y i s s o m e t h i n g l i k ea w o r s tc a s e . T h ec a s es t udi e s a l s os ugge s twh a t 31E s tim a te d P o l l u tion C o ntr o lC o s t s f o r P o l l u tant Sour c e s U nde r the T h r e e Sc e n arios F o reach o f t h e t h r ee scen ar i o s, we est ima t e t h e co st s f o rco nt r o llin g t h e p o int a n d n o np o int s o ur ces t h at af f ect each o f t h e cur r e nt l y

l

i s t e d §303( d) wat e r s . T h es e co s t es t ima t e s ar e f o rt h e in cr em ent a l co nt r o l s - - r e l a t iv e t o t h o s e t h at ex i s t e d in 1998 o rs o wh en t h e im p ai r e d w a t e r s w e r e lis t e d - - t h a t w ill b e n e e d e d
. T o t h e e x t e nt t h a t s o me o f t h e s e c o s t s h a v e a l r e a d y b een in cur r e d sin ce t h e wat e r s wer e l i s t e d, t h e co st est ima t e s we pr esent h e r e o v er st at e t h e co st s t h a t re ma inf o r d i s c h arg e r s . T h e t a sk o f pr o j ect in g t h e co st s f o rpo ll u t a nt so ur ces st em m

in g f r o m ef f o r t s t o im p le m e nt T M DL s f o rn ear l y

20, 000 im p ai r e d wat e r s i s par t i c ul ar l y

dif f i cul t b ecaus e t h e act ual T M DL s o r w a t e r q u a l i t y - ba s e d r e q u i r e m e nt s ha ve be e n e s t abl i s he d f

o r

o n l y

a

ve r y f

e wo f t h e s e w a t e r s . We d o n o t k n o w , a t t h is p o int , h o w far o u t o f a t t a in me nt mo s t o f t h e imp a i r e d w a t e r s w ill b e fo u n d t o b e , w h a t s o u r c e s w ill b e fo u n d t o b e r e s p o n s i b le fo r each im p ai r m ent , an d wh at degr ee o f l o ad r e d u c t i o n w ill b e r e q u i r e d o f each r e spo n si b le so ur ce. I n t hi s an al y s i s we m u st est ima t e each o f t h ese elem ent s n o w, b e f o r e t h e act ual T M DL s o rwat e rqual it y st udi es h a v e b een dev e l o ped. Our a n a l ys is n e c e s s ar ily in v o lv e s ma ny a s s u mp t i o n s t h a t w e ap p l y t o t h e r e la t iv e ly limit e d d a t a t h a t n o w ex i s t s o n t h ese im p ai r e d wat e r s an d t h e so ur ces t h at ma y co nt r i b u t e t o t h ei rim p ai r m ent . T hus, o u rco st est ima t e s ar e sub j ect t o sub s t a nt i a l un cer t a int y . Ourdat a , m e t h o d o l o g y an d as s u m p t i o n s ar e des c r i b e d in det a il in t h e s uppo r t in g co s t an al y s i s . W e es t ima t e t h e co s t s t o po ll u t a nt s o ur ces in f

i r s t quar t er2000 do ll ar s . A ll co s t s in cl ude capit al an d o p er at in g an d ma int e n a n ce co st s, co m b in ed int o a sin g le an nu al i zed co st f i gur e. T h e co s t es t ima t e s t h at we pr es ent r e pr es ent an nu al i zed am o u nt s b e gin n in g in t h e y ear2000 t h at will co nt inue each y ear , f o r e v e r . T M DL s ar e assum e d t o b e dev e l o ped at an ev en pace o v ert h e 15 y ear s f r o m n o w t h r o ugh 2015, co n s i s t e nt wit h t h e deadl in e f o rT M DLdev e l o pm ent es t ab l i s h e d b y t h e n e w r e gul at i o n s . T h e av er age so ur ce i s assum e d t o b e gin in cur r in g i t s co st s t o im p le m e nt T M DLall o cat i o n s f iv e y ear s af t e rt h e T M DLaf f ect in g t h at so ur ce i s dev e l o ped. T h e t im in g o f co m p l

i a n ce in v e st m e nt s b y so ur ces i s assum e d t o b e i d ent i cal un dereach o f t h e t h r ee T M DL scen ar i o s. A r eal di sco u nt r a t e o f 7 % i s used.

so m e a ssu m p t i o n s m o r e t y p i c a l o f m o st T M DL s m i g h t b e . W e u s eso m e r o u g h a v e r a g e s d r a w n f r o mt h e c a se s t udi e s i n de f i n i n g o u r m o r ec o s t -e f f e c t i v eS c e n a r i o s 2 a n d 3. EP A r e c o g n ize s th at th e 1 5 c a s e s t u d i e s ar e n o t r e p r e s e n tativ e o f all c o n d itio n s th at may b e f o u n din p o te n tial TM D L s . F o r in s t an c e , n o n e o f th e 1 5 r e p r e s e n ts a w a te r b o d y imp a ir e d b y ag r i c u ltu r a l c h e m ic als o r s e d i me n tin a m a jo r cr o p p r o d u c i n g a r ea . We b e l i e v e t h i s i s a ccep t a b l e b e ca u s e w e d o n o t u s e t h e ca s e s t u d i es i n a m a n n e rs u ch th at th is s o r t o f r e p r e s e n tativ e n e s s is c r itic al. W e u s eth e c a s e s t u d i e s p r imar ily to e l u c id ate s e v e r a l mu c h b r o a d e r q u e s tio n s : I s S c e n ar io 1 r e ally s o me th in g lik ea w o r s t c a s e ? F o r a mo d e r a te ly c o s t
- e f f e c tiv e S c e n ar io 2 , h o w mu c h le s s s h o u ld w eas s u meth an “ t h e n e x ttr e a tme n t s t e p w ill b eimp l e m e n te d b y all r e le v a n t p o in t s o u r c e s w ith in a r e le v a n t d i s t an c ean d all r e le v a n t n o n p o i n t s o u r c e s in th e e n tir e c o u n ty ? F o r q u e s tio n s o f th is g r e a te r le v e l o f g e n e r a lity , w e b e lie v eth at o u r s a mp le o f 1 5 is r e as o n ab ly r e p r e s e n tativ e . N e v e r t h e le s s , w eag r e eth at th e s a mp leto b e u s e d f o r “ g r o u n d t r u th in g ” o u r as s u mp tio n s s h o u ld b e e x p a n d e d , an d w e w ill d o s o f o r th e f i n a l v e r s io n o f th is re p o rt . 32U n d e r a

u n ifo r m, in fle x ib le T M D L ap p r o a c h , ( t h e “ L e a s t F le x ib le T M D L P r o g r a m” s c e n ar io ) p o llu t a nt s o u r c e s w ill in c u r c o s t s e s t ima t e d a t $ 1
. 9- $ 4
. 3 b illio n p e rye ar t o imp le me nt co nt r o l s f o rt h e n ear l y

20, 000 im p ai r e d wat e r s f o rwhi c h T M DL s w ill b e d e v e lo p e d
. I n t h e ab sen ce o f a m o r e det a ile d assessm ent o f t h e r e qui r e d l o ad r e duct i o n s, a st at e m i ght ch o s e t o re q u i re f u rt h e r c o nt ro l s f r o m a ll so ur ces t h at di sch ar g e t h e im p ai r m ent po ll u t a nt . T hi s i s equiv a le nt t o appr o x ima t e l y

$95, 000 - $215, 000 an nu all y

in im p le m e nt at i o n co s t s perl i s t e d wat e r b o dy
. I n c o nt r a s t , t o me e t t h e s a me o b je c t iv e o f r e d u c in g lo a d s b e lo w t h e ma x imu m a m o u nt in t h e sam e t im e f r am e, un dert h e “ M o d er at el y

Co st
- e f f ect iv e T M DL P r o g r a m ” scen ar i o , po ll u t a nt s o u r c e s w ill n e e d t o s p e n d o n ly $ 1
. 0 - $ 3
. 4 b illio n p e rye ar . T his is a

c o s t r e d u c t i o n o f 2 1 - 4 4 %. 14 T h e sav in g s r e f lect ed in t h e “ M o d er at el y

Co st
- e f f ect iv e T M DL P r o g r a m ” scen ar i o ar e due t o m o r e car ef ul

calcul a t i o n s t o det e r m in e t h e l o ad r e duct i o n t h at ar e deem ed suf f i ci ent t o ach i e v e wat e rqual i t y

st an dar d s r a t h ert h an un if o r m l y

r e qui r in g co nt r o l s an d t h er eb y ex ceedin g n ecessar y r e duct i o n s . Un dert h e “ M o r e Co st
- E f f ect iv e T M DL P r o g r a m ” scen ar i o , co st s t o di sch ar g er s ma y decl in e b y r o ugh l y

7 t o 13 % ( $140 - $235 millio n a n nu a lly) fr o m t h o s e t h a t w o u l d o c c u r u n d e r t h e “ M o d er at el y

Co st
- e f f ect iv e T M DL P r o g r a m ” scen ar i o . Rat h ert h an r e qui r in g equiv a le nt c o nt r o l e ffo r t s fr o m a ll p o llu t a nt s o u r c e s fr o m w hic h fu r t h e r c o nt r o ls w ill b e s o u g ht , t h e s t a t e wo ul d st r iv e t o achi e v e ef f i ci ent all o cat i o n s b a sed o n t h e r e l a t iv e co st s f o rt h e dif f e r e nt so ur ces t o r e duce po ll u t i o n . T h ese sav in g s t h at we est ima t e f r o m m o r e co st
- e f f ect iv e wast e l o ad all o cat i o n s r e p r e s e nt o n ly t h e s a v in g s a v a ilab le fr o m s hift in g s o me p o int s o u r c e c o nt r o l r e s p o n s i b ilit ie s t o no np o ints o u r c e s ( i
. e . , “p o int /n o np o intt r a d in g ” )
. We ha ve no t be e n ab le t o e s t ima t e bu ta s s u m e t h er e co ul d b e addit i o n al sav in g s t h at m i g ht o ccurf r o m o t h e rso r t s o f co st
- e f f ect iv e all o cat i o n s ( e . g . , “ p o int / p o int ” t r adin g, “ n o n po int /n o np o int ” t r adin g, pr et r eat m e nt t r adin g)
.

14 Th e s c alin g is b a s e d o n a r e v i e wo f 1 5 c o mp le te d TM D L s s e le c t e d to c o v e r a s u b s tan tial r a n g e o f imp a ir me n t p o llu tan t s , s o u r c ety p e s ( b o t h p o in t an d n o n p o i n t s o u r c e s ) an d g e o g r a p h ic lo c a tio n s . G i v e n th e w i d e v a r i atio n in th e s o r t s o f w a te r s an d imp a ir me n t s th at ac tu al TM D L s w ill ad d r e s s , a s a mp le o f 1 5 c o mp le te d T M D L s i s obvi ou s l y fa r s h or tof a n i d e a ld a t a ba s efr om wh i c h t o d r a w c o n c l u s i on s a n d s o m e r e g i on s a r e u n d e r r e p r e s e n te d
. N e v e r t h e le s s , th is in itial g r o u n d tr u t h i n g e f f o r t p r o v i d e s s o me p r e limin ar y in d i c a tio n s o f p a tte r n s ac r o s s ac tu al TM D L s . S e e T h e Nat i onalCos ts t o Im pl e m e n t T

M

DLs , A p p e n d ix A f o r mo r e d e tails
. 33Ta b l e VI - 1 E s tim a te d C o s t s f o r P o l l u tant Sour c e s to I m pl e m e n t T M D L s

T y pe of Sour c e A nnualC o s t s ( 2000 $ in m i l l i ons ) Lea s tFl ex i b l e T M DL P r ogr am Mo d e r a t e l y C o s t-e f f e c t iv e TM DL P r ogr am Mo r e C o s t Ef f ect i v e TM DL P r ogr am Po int s o ur ces 1, 082 - 2, 178 812 - 1, 634 625 - 1, 321 No np o int s o ur ces 783 - 2, 162 234 - 1, 791 281 - 1, 869 T o t a lim pl em ent a t i on cos t s 1 , 865 - 4, 340 1, 046 - 3, 425 906 - 3, 190 Po t e nt i a l s a v in g s f o rn o n p o int s o ur ces un det e r m in ed un det e r m in ed un det e r m in ed

Po int Sour c e I m

ple m e n tation C o s t s U n d e r t h e fir s t t w o s c e n ar io s , h a lf o rmo r e o f t h e c o s t s w ill b e in c u r r e d b y p o int s o u r c e s . T hi s i s despit e t h e f act t h at po int so ur ces af f ect o n l y

ab o u t 1/4 o f t h e im p ai r e d wat e r s while n o np o int so ur ces af f ect m o r e t h an 90 %
. Un dert h e t hi r d scen ar i o , so m e po int so ur ce co nt r o l r e s p o n s i b ilit ie s ar e p r e s u m e d t o b e s hift e d t o n o n p o int s o u r c e s b ecause o f t h e expect ed ab ilit y o f n o np o int s o u r c e s t o ab a t e lo a d s a t lo w e r c o s t s p e r p o u n d
. E v e n s o , p o int s o u r c e s ma y s t ill in c u r t h e ma jo r i t y

o f t h e imp le me nt a t io n c o s t s . Ta b l e VI - 2 E s tim a te d C o s t s f o r P o int So ur c e s -- L e a s t F l e x ibl e T M D L P r o g r a m

T y pe of Sour c e A nnualC o s t s ( 2000 $ in m i l l i ons ) Nu m b er of Af f ect ed F a ci l i t i es Lo w Est . H i g h Est . Lo w Est . H i g h Est . I n dus t r i a l di s c h ar g er s 676 1, 465 3052 8557 I n di r ect di sch ar g er s ( m et al s) 10 16 at 148 PO TW s at 312 PO TW s POT W s 396 697 1094 3335 T o t a l 1 , 082 2, 178 4, 146 11, 893

34Ta b l e VI - 3 E s tim a te d C o s t s f o r P o int So ur c e s f o r “M oder at el y Cos t - e f f ect ive T M DL P r ogr am ” and “M or e Cos t - E f f ect ive T M DL P r ogr am S cen ari o s ”

T y pe of Sour c e A nnualC o s t s ( 2000 $ in m i l l i ons ) Nu m b er of Af f ect ed F a ci l i t i es Lo w Est . H i g h Est . Lo w Est . H i g h Est . I n dus t r i a l di s c h ar g er s 507 1, 099 2289 6418 I n di r ect di sch ar g er s ( m et al s) 8 1 2 at 111 PO TW s at 234 PO TW s POT W s 297 523 821 2502 T o t a l 812 1, 634 3, 110 8, 919 P o t e nt ials avings f r om“M or e Cost - e f f ect i v e TM DL P r ogr am , ” Scenario 3 (s avings in par e nthe s e s ) ( 187) ( 313) 1, 251 2, 066

T h e l o w an d t h e h i gh es t ima t e s s h o w n ab o v e r e f lect dif f e r in g j udgm ent s ab o u t h o w f ar upst r eam o f an im p ai r e d wat e rt y pi call y

can t h er e b e po int so ur ces t h at co nt r i b u t e t o t h e wat e r b o d y ’ s imp a i r m e nt . T h e lo w e r e s t ima t e a s s u me s t h a t o n ly p o int s o u r c e s d i s c h ar g in g t h e im p ai r m ent po ll u t a nt di r ect l y

int o t h e l i s t e d wat e rco nt r i b u t e t o im p ai r m ent . T h e upperes t ima t e a s s u me s t h a t p o int s o u r c e s c a n c o nt r i b u t e t o imp a i r m e nt fr o m a s far a w a y a s 2 5 mile s u p s t r e a m ( if t h e imp a i r m e nt p o llu t a nt is B O D , a mmo n i a o r t o x i c o r g a n i c c h e mic a l s ) o r 5 0 mile s u p s t r e a m ( if t h e imp a i r m e nt p o llu t a nt is nu t r ie nt s o rme t a ls )
. W e b e lie v e t h e s e t w o e s t ima t e s p r o v id e r eas o n ab le l o weran d upperes t ima t e s f o rt h e geo g r aphi c ex t e nt o f po int s o ur ces t h at w ill b e j udged as r e le v a nt in T M DL s . T h er e ar e r o ugh l y

70, 000 in div i duall y

per m it t e d po int s o ur ce di s c h ar g er s in t h e n a t i o n . T hus, so m e wh er e b e t w een 6 an d 17 per cent o f t h em seem l

i k el y

t o b e af f ect ed if t h er e wer e n o fle x ib ilit y u n d e r t h e T M D L p r o g r a m, a s d e s c r i b e din t h e “ L e a s t F le x ib le T M D L P r o g r a m” scen ar i o . Based o n t h e exper i en ce f r o m a sam p le o f r ecent l y

dev e l o ped T M DL s, o n l y

ab o u t 3/4 o f

t h es e s o ur ces ( ab o ut 3, 000 - 9, 000 di s c h ar g er s ) w ill lik e l y in c u r c o s t s u n d e r t h e “ M o d e r a t e l y Co st
- e f f ect iv e T M DL P r o g r a m ” scen ar i o . Of t h ese po int so ur ces l i k el y

t o b e af f ect ed b y t h e “ M o d er at el y

Co st
- e f f ect iv e T M DL P r o g r a m ” scen ar i o , per h aps 20 t o 40 per cent o f t h em will in curn o o rr e duced co st s if t h e T M DLpr o g r a m pr o ceeds t o all o cat e co nt r o l r e spo n si b ilit ie s in a m

o r e co st
- e f f ect iv e ma n n e r ( “ Mo r e Co st
- e f f ect iv e S cen ar i o ”)
.

35N o npoint Sour c e I m

ple m e n tation C o s t s C o s t s wer e es t ima t e d f o rf o urt y pes o f n o n p o int s o ur ces : agr i cul t ur al l a n d( in c l udin g cr o p , past ur e an d r a n g e l a n d ) , an ima l f

eedin g o p er at i o n s ( AF O s) , silv i c ul t u r e , an d o n - s it e wast ewat er t r eat m e nt sy st em s ( s ept i c t a nk s, et c. )
. T ab le VI

- 4 sh o w s t h e co st s f r o m t h e ma n a gem e nt m

easur es t h at ma y b e im p le m e nt ed b y t h e f o urt y pes o f n o n p o int so ur ces t h at we an al y ze. Ta b l e VI - 4 T o talI m pl e m e n tation C o s t s f o r N o npoint Sour c e s
**Ty pe**  **S cen**  **ari o**  **1 Wo**  **rst-Case T M**  **DL P**  **r ogra**  **m S**  **cen ari**  **o 2**  **Mode ra**  **t e**  **l y**  **C o**  **s t**  ****

**effecti ve T**  **M DL**  **P r**  **ogra m**  A g ri c u l t ural l and c r o p l a n d p a s tu r e l a n d range l and P

o

t ent i a

l s

a

v

i ngs 645 - 1, 956 5 - 11 2 - 16 (not es t i m

a

t ed) 183 - 1, 632 5 - 11 2 - 16 (not es t i m

a

t ed) AF O s P

o

t ent i a

l s

a

v

i ngs 76 - 110 (not es t i m

a

t ed) 13 - 73 (not es t i m

a

t ed) S i l v i c ul t u re 30 - 42 7 - 31 O n -si t e wa st e w a t e r t r e a t m e n t syst e m s 2 4 - 2 8 2 4 - 2 8 **Tot a**  **l P** 

**o**

**t e** 

**nt**

**i a** 

**l S**  **a**

**v**

**i ngs**  **782 - 2, 162**  **(n**

**o**

**t esti**  **m**

**ated )**  **234 - 1, 733**  **(n**

**o**

**t esti**  **m**

**ated )**  **ADDI T**  **I O**  **NAL CO**  **S T**  **S T**  **O NO**  **NP O**  **I NT**  **S O**  **URCE S**  **UNDE R S**  **C E**  **NARI O**  **3 (“M O**  **RE CO**  **S T**  **-E F**  **F E**  **CT I**  **V E**  **T M**  **DL P**  **R O**  **G RAM**  **”) 47 - 78** 

M a ny s o u r c e s o f u n it c o s t in fo r ma t io n ar e u s e din e s t ima t in g t h e c o s t o f imp le me nt in g t h ese n o np o int so ur ce BMP s as a f u n c t i o n o f t h e v o l u m e an d ch ar act er i s t i cs o f t h e n o n p o int so ur ces. T h e co st in g r e l a t i o n shi p s an d t h e un der l yin g so ur ces ar e descr i b e d f u ll y

in t h e s uppo r t in g r e po r t , The N a tional C o s t s to I m

plement TM DLs , A ppen d ix I
. I n

e s t ima t ing im p le m e nt a t i o n c o s t s f o rno np o ints o u r c e s , u n itc o s t s a n d c o s ts a ving s f o r pr o j ect ed BMP s wer e appl i e d t o t h e v o l u m e o f n o np o int so ur ce act iv i t y

assum e d t o n eed f u r t h e r co nt r o l s as est ima t e d f o reach o f t h e T M DLpr o g r a m scen ar i o s. T o t h e ex t e nt t h at so m e po r t i o n o f

t h e n o np o int so ur ces h a v e al r eady im p le m e nt ed so m e o f t h e BMP s , t h e im p le m e nt at i o n co st an d sav in g s est ima t e s wer e r e duced t o r e f lect t h e pr act i ces t h at ar e al r eady in pl ace.
36

### AP P E NDICES : O t h er Issu es Ra i s ed In H o u s e Rep o rt #106- 988
R e sp o n ses t o Issu es R a i s ed b y G e n e r a l A cco u n t i n g O ffi ce Est i ma t eo f C o st s t o S m a l l B u si n e sses Sum m a ry of com m ent s on Dr af tReport

### AP P E NDICES : O t h er M a t t ers o f In t erestt oCo n g ress 1 . R e sp o n ses t oIssu es R a i s ed b y t h e G e n era l A cco u n t i n g O ffi ce T h e U. S
. Gen e r a l A cco unt in g Of f i ce i ssued a r e po r t 15 r a is in g a

nu mb e r o f is s u e s r e g ar d in g t h e pr o p o s ed r e v i si o n s t o t h e T M DL r e gul at i o n . T h e f o ll o win g addr esses t h e ma j o ri ssues r e gar d in g t h e J u l y

2000 r e gul at i o n t h at wer e n o t al r eady co v e r e d in t h e b o dy o f t hi s R e po r t . As s u m p t i on of F u l lCom p l i ance T h e GA O r e po r t t h at E P A an al y zed t h e in cr em ent a l im p act o f t h e r e gul at i o n , b u t n o t t h e fu ll c o s t o f c o mp lia n c e w it h t h e lo n g - e s t ab lis h e d T M D L p r o g r a m r e q u i r e me nt s . T his r e p o r t a n d i t s s uppo r t in g co s t an al y s es 16 est ima t e t h e f u ll co st o f t h e T M DLpr o g r a m t o st at es an d t o po ll u t a nt s o ur ces . L i m i t a t i ons of Wat e r Qual it y Dat a G A O n o te dth a t m u c h of th e N a ti on ’ s w a te r s h a v e n o t b e e n a s s e s s e d , a n dth a t w hile E P A ’ s eco n o m i c an al y s i s o f t h e T M DLpr o p o s al ackn o wledged t h at addit i o n al wat e r s n eedin g T M D L s w ill u n d o u b t e d l y b e id e nt ifie din t h e fu t u r e , “ E P A d i d n o t e s t ima t e c o s t s fo r d e v e lo p in g T M DL s f o rt h es e wat e r s . ” T h e s uppo r t in g r e po r t , T h e National Cos ts to Develop T M DL s , d o e s ad d r ess t hi s i ssu e w hi c h w e al so ad d r ess b e l o w . T hi s f o ll o win g pr o v i d es per s pect iv e o n t h e t o t a l nu m b ero f n e w causes t h at m i ght b e i d ent if i ed in t h e f u t u r e , t h e r a t e at whi c h t h ese n e w causes m i g ht b e l i s t e d, an d t h e r e sul t in g d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h is w o r k lo a d o v e r t ime
. W hile t his d i s c u s s i o n is n e c e s s ar ily s p e c u la t iv e , it d o e s p r o v id e a n in d i c a t io n o f t h e a d d it i o n a l w o r k lo a d , it s t imin g a n d p o t e nt ia l c o s t . P e r s pect iv e o n t h e t o t a l nu m b ero f n e w causes t h at m i g ht b e added in t h e f u t u r e To d a t e , s t a t e s h a v e m o n it o re d o r a s s e s s e d o n l y

ap o rt i o no f t h e i r w a t e r b o d i e s . Int h e fu t u r e , t h e r e w ill lik e l y b e n e w lis t in g s each cy cle ( e . g . , 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018)
. T h es e n e w l i s t in g s m i g ht i d ent if y

t h e n eed t o dev e l o p addit i o n al T M DL s b e y o n dt h o s e i d ent if i ed in t h e

15 U. S
. Gen e r a l A cco unt in g Of f i ce, P r opos ed R evis i ons to E P

A R e gulations to C l ean Up P o llute d W a te r s , GA O/T

- R C E D- 00- 233, J u n e 28, 2000
16 E n v i r o n o m i c s an d T e t r a T ech , I n c. , T h e National Cos ts to Develop T M DL s , pr epar ed f o rt h e U. S
. E P A , Of f i ce o f W e t l an ds , Ocean s an d W a t e r s h e ds , dr af t M a y 2001 an d E n v i r o n o m i c s an d T e t r a T ech , I n c. , The N a tional C o s t s to I m

plement TM DLs , pr epar ed f o rt h e U. S
. E P A , Of f i ce o f W e t l an ds , Ocean s an d W a t e r s h e ds , dr af t M a y 2001
A ppen d ix A - 11998 §303( d) l i s t in g . B a s e d o n t h e Nat i o n al W a t e rQual it y I n v e nt o r y ( N W Q I ) R e po r t f o r C o n g r e s s f o r1998,
• 2 3 % o f t h e N a t i o n ’ s r iv e r a n d s t r e a m mile s h a v e b e e n a s s e s s e d ;3 5 % o f t h e s e d o n o t f u ll y

s uppo r t wat e rqual it y s t an dar d s o rus es an d an addit i o n al 10% ar e t h

r eat en ed.
• 32% o f t h e es t u ar y acr es h a v e b een as s e s s e d; 44% o f t h es e do n o t f u ll y

s uppo r t wat e rqual it y st an dar d s o ruses an d an addit i o n al 9% ar e t h r eat en ed.
• 42% o f l ake, po n dan d r e ser v o i racr es ( n o t in cl udin g t h e Gr eat L akes) h a v e b een as s e s s e d; 45% o f t h es e do n o t f u ll y

s uppo r t wat e rqual it y s t an dar d s o rus es an d an addit i o n al 9% ar e t h r eat en ed.
• 9 0 % o f t h e G r e a t L ak e s s h o r e lin e mile s h a v e b e e n a s s e s s e d , a n d 9 6 % o f t h e s h o r e lin e mile s ar e n o t fu lly s uppo r t in g wat e rqual it y s t an dar d s an d us es , an d an addit i o n al 2% ar e t h r eat en ed. T hus , ab o u t 1/3 o f t h e Nat i o n ’ s wat e r s h a v e b een as s e s s e d in 1998, leav in g 2/3 t o b e as s e s s e d. E ar lie r N W Q I r e p o r t s in c l u d e a s s e s s m e nt s o f s o me d iffe r e nt a s w e ll a s ma ny o f t h e s a me w a t e r s . S t a t e s h a v e t h e fle x ib ilit y t o a s s e s s w h a t e v e r w a t e r s t h e y w i s h a l t h o u g h E P A h a s b e e n en co ur agin g t h em t o r o t a t e am o n g all wat e r s o n a f iv e y earb a si s. I n addi t i o n , o t h e rdat a so ur ces, such as US GS , can pr o v i d e dat a o n so m e o f t h e un assessed wat e r s . A s assessm ent an d m o n it o r in g ef f o r t s expan dt o co v e rm o r e o f t h e Nat i o n ’ s wat e rb o di es, mo r e imp a i r e d w a t e r b o d i e s n e e d in g T M D L s w ill lik e l y b e fo u n d
. A p o r t io n o f t h e c au s e s fo r t h e imp a i r e d w a t e r b o d i e s t h a t w ill b e id e nt ifie din t h e fu t u r e w ill h a v e T M D L s d e v e lo p e dfo r t h e m . I n

addit i o n , a po r t i o n o f t h e wat e rb o di es t h at h a v e al r eady b een assessed an d ar e n o t cur r e nt l y im p ai r e d ma y b e f o un d t o b e im p ai r e d in t h e f u t u r e ( p er h aps a po r t i o n o f t h e cur r e nt l y “ t h r eat en ed” wat e rb o di es)
. H o w e v e r , t h e ma g n it u d e o f t h e w a t e r q u a lit y p r o b le ms ye t t o b e d i s c o v e r e dis lik e l y t o b e f arle s s t h an m i g ht b e s ugges t ed b y o n l y

cur s o r y co n s i d er at i o n o f t h e ab o v e s t at i s t i cs , f o rt h r e e r easo n s:
• M a ny of the unas s e s s e d w a ter bodies ar e extr em ely unlikely to be im pair e d. F o r ex am ple, a si gn if i cant f r act i o n o f t h e un assessed wat e rb o di es ar e l o cat ed in ar eas t h at f o rt h e m o st par t ar e co n s i d er ed t o b e pr i s t in e ( f o rex am ple, A l aska al o n e r e p r e s e nt s o v e r 1 0 % o f t h e u n a s s e s s e d r iv e rmile s a n d ab o u t h a lf o f t h e u n a s s e s s e d lak e a c r e s . ) I n a d d it i o n , t h e r e p o r t e d t o t a l r iv e rmile s d o u b le dfr o m t h e 1992 t o t h e 1996 305( b ) l i s t s t o in cl ude n o n p er en n i al wat e rb o di es ( int er m it t e nt s t r eam s , can al s an d dit c h e s) , whi c h ar e gen e r a ll y

un l i k el y

t o b e co n s i d er ed im p ai r e d an d t h e s e c o mp r i s e o v e r 7 5 % o f t h e u n a s s e s s e d r iv e rmile s .

A ppen d ix A - 2• State m o nitor i ng ef f

o r t s have been f o cu s e d on w a ter bodies m o s t likely to be im pair e d. T h e r e f o r e , it is lik e l y t h a t mo s t ma jo r w a t e r q u a lit y p r o b le ms h a v e al

r eady b een i d ent if i ed. T hi s i s co n s i s t e nt wit h t h e r e sul t s o f a r ecent r e po r t b y t h e Gen e r a l A cco unt in g Of f i ce, in whi c h “ t h e st at e o f f i ci al s we int e r v i e wed sai dt h ey f eel co n f i d ent t h at t h ey h a v e i d ent if i ed m o st o f t h ei rser i o u s wat e rqual it y p r o b le ms . 17 T hi s s ugges t s t h at t h e r a t e o f im p ai r m ent f o run as s e s s e d wat e r s w ill b e f ar l o w e r t h a nf o r a s s e s s e d w a t e rs . • F u tur e im pair m e n t of c u r r

e ntly as s e s s e d w a te r s is not like l y to be s i gnific ant. If all t h r eat en ed wat e r s b ecam e im p ai r e d, t h en t hi s m i ght in cr ease t h e cur r e nt nu m b er o f

T M DL s b y per h aps 20%

- 30%
. Ho wev e r , o n l y

a po r t i o n o f t h ese m i g ht act uall y b eco m e im p ai r e d b ecause cur r e nt pr o g r a m s , such as t echn o l o gy - b ased r e qui r e m e nt s, an d st eps t aken b e st at es t o addr ess t h r eat en ed wat e rb o di es can po t e nt i a ll y

pr ev ent a si gn if i cant po r t i o n o f t h r eat en ed wat e rb o di es f r o m b eco m in g imp a i r e d
. O v e r a ll, it is a nt i c i p a t e d t h a t a l t h o u g h a d d it i o n a l imp a i r e d w a t e r b o d i e s w ill b e id e nt ifie din fu t u r e lis t in g s , it d o e s n o t ap p e arlik e l y t h a t t his w ill r e s u lt in a

s i g n ific a nt in c r e a s e r e la t iv e t o t h e c u r r e nt wo r k l o ad f o rt h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s . P e r s pect iv e o n t h e r a t e at wh i c h n e w causes m i g ht b e i d ent if i ed in t h e f u t u r e T h er e i s l it t le b a si s f o rf o r ecast in g t h e r a t e at whi c h addit i o n al im pai r m e nt s w ill b e i d ent if i ed in f

u t u r e l i s t in g s . F r o m 1972 t o 1992, v e r y f

e w s t at es s u b m it t e d §303( d) l i s t s . B y 1996, in

r e spo n se t o l a w suit s an d in cr eased ef f o r t b y E P A , all o f t h e 56 st at es h a d sub m i t t e d l i s t s , al

t h o ugh t h es e v ar i ed in t h ei rco m p r e h e n s iv en es s . I n 1998, in r e s p o n s e t o t h e gr o w in g nu m b ero f la w s u it s , mo s t o f t h e 5 6 s t a t e s d i d a

t h o r o u g h jo b o f lis t in g t h e i rimp a ir e d w a t e r b o d i e s . T h e in cr eas e in t h e nu m b ero f po ll u t a nt caus e s in t h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t as co m p ar ed t o t h e 1996 §303( d) l i s t was 4, 536 caus e s . T h e 1998 l i s t s gr ew s i gn if i cant l y

in s o m e s t at es b ecaus e aut h o r it i e s w a nt e d t o min imiz e t h e p o t e nt ia l fo rlit ig a t io n a n dlis t e d c au s e s fo r w hic h T M D L s w o u l d ul

t ima t e l y

n o t b e r e qui r e d ( s o m e st at es ar e pl an n in g o n sub m it t in g addit i o n al in f o r mat i o n in f

u t u r e lis t in g s t h a t w ill a llo w t h e m t o d e - lis t c au s e s t h a t w e r e p r e v io u s ly id e nt ifie din t h e 1996 o r1998 l i s t in g s )
. T h e in cr eas e o f 4, 536 caus e s f r o m t h e 1996 t o t h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s ( ab o ut 2, 000 c au s e s p e rye ar ) t hu s lik e l y o v e r s t a t e s t h e e x t e nt t o w hic h n e w p o llu t a nt c au s e s w ill b e id e nt ifie d in

fu t u r e lis t in g s . I n fa c t , if s t a t e s d o d e lis t T M D L s in t h e fu t u r e , s o me fu t u r e lis t in g s ma y a c t u a lly r e duce t h e T M DLwo r k l o ad r a t h ert h an in cr ease it . Fu r t h e r , cur r e nt st at e m o n it o r in g r e so ur ces ar e l ar g el y

co m m

i t t e d f o rwat e rb o di es t h at h a v e al r eady b een assessed an d i d ent if i ed as im p ai r e d, as well as o t h e rm o n it o r in g r e qui r e m e nt s as s o ci at ed wit h o n go in g wat e rpr o g r a m act iv it i e s . Unt il t h e T M DL s f o rt h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s ar e d e v e lo p e d , imp le me nt e d a n d s u c c e s s f u l

in a c hie v in g w a t e r q u a lit y s t a n d ar d s , it s e e m s lik e l y

17 U
. S
. G e n e r a l A c c o u n tin g O f f i c e , Identification and Re m e diation of P o lluted W a ter s Im peded by D a ta G aps , GAO/ T

- R C E D

- 00-131, pa ge4, Ma r c h 2000. A ppen d ix A - 3t h a t t h e r e w ill b e limit e d d i s c r e t i o n ar y mo n it o r in g r e s o u r c e s a v a ilab le fo r s t a t e s t o a s s e s s addit i o n al wat e rb o di es. E v en t h en , n e wl y

i d ent if i ed im p ai r e d wat e rb o di es co ul d al so r e qui r e addit i o n al m o n it o r in g . T hus, t h e wo r k l o ad asso ci at ed wi t h

n e wl y

i d ent if i ed im pai r ed wat e rb o di es i s l i k el y

t o b e spr ead o u t o v era l o n g per i o d
. F in a lly, E P A a nt i c i p a t e s t h a t n e w c au s e s w ill b e id e nt ifie d g r a d u a lly o v e r a n e x t e n d e d per i o do f t im e , in par t b ecause st at es h a v e al r eady f

o cused o n t h o s e ar eas m o st l i k el y

t o b e imp a i r e d a n d s o it w ill t ak e lo n g e r t o fin d n e w imp a i r m e nt s , a n din p ar t b ecause so m e wat e r b o di es ma y n o t b eco m e im p ai r e d unt il so m e t im e in t h e f u t u r e ( f o rex am ple, wat e rb o di es t h at ar e cur r e nt l y

“ t h r eat en ed” b u t n o t im p ai r e d)
. Hy po t h et i cal scen ar i o f o rper s pect iv e o n t h e po t e nt i a l wo r k l o ad f o rn e w causes I n

t hi s r e po r t , we pr o v i d e so m e per s pect iv e o n t h e po t e nt i a l wo r k l o ad asso ci at ed wit h n e w c au s e s t h a t w ill b e id e nt ifie din t h e fu t u r e . T o d o s o , w e e s t ima t e t h e c o s t fo r a

p l au s i b le , b u t hy po t h et i cal , scen ar i o b a sed o n t h e f o ll o win g assum p t i o n s r e gar d in g 1) t h e r a t e at whi c h n e w p o llu t a nt c au s e s w ill b e id e nt ifie d , 2 ) t h e p e r i o d o v e r w hic h n e w c au s e s w ill b e id e nt ifie d , 3 ) t h e r a t e a t w hic h T M D L s w ill b e d e v e lo p e dfo r t h e s e c au s e s , 4 ) t h e c h ar a c t e r is t i c s o f t h e T M D L s t h a t w ill n e e d t o b e d e v e lo p e d , a n d 5 ) t h e u n it c o s t s fo r d e v e lo p in g T M D L s :
• O n av er age, we as s u m e t h at 1, 000 n e w po ll u t a nt caus e s m i g ht b e i d ent if i ed in each f u t u r e l i s t in g . Ho wev e r , sin ce a nu m b ero f st at es appeart o b e pr epar in g t o de- l i s t c au s e s , w e a s s u me t h a t t h e r e w ill n o t b e a

n e t in c r e a s e in t h e nu mb e r o f c au s e s in t h e 2002 l i s t in g , an d t h at n e t n e w caus e s w ill b e a d d e d s t ar t in g in t h e 2006 l i s t in g . • W e as s u m e t h at 1, 000 n e w po ll u t a nt caus e s w ill b e id e nt ifie dfo r p e r h ap s n in e l i s t in g s , wit h f

e w r e ma in in g caus e s t o b e i d ent if i ed af t e r2038, f o ra t o t a l o f 9, 000 ne wc au s e s , w h i c h i s e q u iva le ntt o ab o u t2 5 % o f t h e c u r r e ntT M D L d e ve l o p m e nt wo r k l o ad f o rt h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s . • W e a s s u me t h a t t h e T M D L s fo r n e w l y id e nt ifie d c au s e s w ill b e d e v e lo p e d un if o r m l y

o v era 10- y earper i o df r o m b e in g l i s t e d. – f o r1, 000 n e wl y

l

i s t e d caus e s t h i s wo ul d r e s u l t in 100 T M DL s pery ear . Wit h t h e l a s t s e t o f n e w caus e s l i s t e d in 2038 an d t hi s pace o f dev e l o pm ent , t h e T M DL s f o rall o f t h e f u t u r e caus e s wo ul d b e dev e l o ped b y 2050.
• W e a s s u me t h a t t h e c h ar a c t e r is t i c s o f t h e T M D L s fo rfu t u r e c au s e s w ill b e s imilar t o causes al r eady i d ent if i ed, an d t h at b y t h e t im e t h ese T M DL s ar e dev e l o ped it w ill b e p o s s i b le t o d o e m p l o y t h e mo s t e ffic i e nt ap p r o a c h e s . • W e assum e t h at t h e un it co st s t o dev e l o p T M DL s f o rn e wl y

i d ent if i ed causes will b e t h e s a m e as f o rt h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s – t hi s as s u m p t i o n t e n d s t o o v er s t at e co s t s b ecaus e we ant i ci pat e t h at wit h t h e exper i en ce o f dev e l o pin g T M DL s f o rt h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s , s t at e s t af f w ill b e in c r e a s in g l y mo r e e ffe c t iv e a n d e ffic i e nt , a n d t h a t n e w me t h o d s a n d t e c h n o lo g y w ill b e c o me a v a ilab le t o fu r t h e rlo w e r T M D L A

ppen d ix A - 4d e v e l o p m e nt c o s t s . H o w e v e r , w e d i d n o t a tte m p t in thi s r e p o r t to e s tima te th e ex t e nt t o whi c h s u ch co s t s a v in g s wo ul d o ccur , an d s o r e l i e d upo n t h e co n s er v a t iv e assum p t i o n t h at t h e un it co st s f o rT M DLdev e l o pm ent wo ul d r e ma in co n s t a nt in r eal t e r m s. T hi s s cen ar i o r e pr es ent s a t o t a l o f 9, 000 T M DL s o rab o u t 25% o f t h e cur r e nt wo r k l o ad f o rt h e 1998 §303( d) l i s t s . P o t e nt ia l C o s t T h e ab o v e pl ausi b le, hy po t h et i cal scen ar i o pr o v i d es per s pect iv e o n t h e po t e nt i a l wo r k l o ad t h at m i g ht b e asso ci at ed wit h n e w po ll u t a nt causes t h at ar e i d ent if i ed in f

u t u r e l i s t in g s. F o rt hi s s cen ar i o , a t o t a l o f 9, 000 T M DL s wo ul d b e dev e l o ped at a t o t a l un di s c o u nt ed co s t o f $216 millio n a t a

t y p i c a l u n d i s c o u nt e dye ar ly c o s t o f ab o u t $ 5

- 7 millio n 18 ov e r m o s t of th e p e r i od t h

r o ugh 2050. A ddit i o n al det a il i s pr o v i d ed in T h e National Cos t s to Develop T M DL s . I f

t h e t o t a l nu m b ero f n e w causes, t h e pace o f i d ent if yin g t h em , t h e dif f i cul t y

o f dev e l o pin g T M DL s f o rt h em , t h e pace o f T M DLdev e l o pm ent , an d t h e ch ar act er i s t i cs o f t h e n e w T M DL s d iffe r s fr o m t his hy p o t h e t ic a l w o r k lo a d , t h e n t h e s e c o s t s w ill in c r e a s e o r d e c r e a s e acco r d in gl y . Othe r L i m i ta tio n s

T h e GA O r e po r t n o t e d s e v e r a l addit i o n al i s s u es , s o m e o f wh i c h wer e addr es s e d in t h e b o dy o f t hi s r e po r t an d s o m e o f whi c h we addr es s b e l o w.
• U nve r if i e d D a t a . T h e GA O r e po r t em ph asi zed t h e n eed t o v e r if y

est ima t e s. The National Cos ts to Develop T M DL s pr o v i d es ex t e n s iv e an al y s es t o v e r if y

t h e e s t ima t e s in t h e r e p o r t . • C o s t s t o t h e P r iv at e S ect o rT h e co st s t o t h e pr iv at e sect o rwer e est ima t e d in t h e s uppo r t in g r e po r t The N a tional C o s ts to I m

plement TM DLs , an d was sum mar i zed in

t h is R e p o r t a s w e ll.
• A cco unt in g f o rUn cer t a int y T h e GA O r e po r t em ph asi zed t h e n eed f o rsen s it iv it y an al y s i s giv e n t h e un cer t a int y o f so m e est ima t e s. T h e National Cos ts to Develop TMD L s pr o v i d es r a n g es f o rkey assum p t i o n s, an d in di cat es t h e ex t e nt t o wh i c h t h e r e sul t s ma y v ar y depen d in g o n t h e accur acy o f t h e assum p t i o n s.
• A n a l y si s o f Ben e f it s . T h e GA O r e po r t em ph asi zed t h e n eed t o addr ess t h e b e n e f i t s o f

t h e pr o g r a m , wh i c h we addr es s e d in t h e b o dy o f t hi s R e po r t .

18 S i n c eth e w o r k lo ad f o r d i f f e r e n tlis tin g p e r i o d s w o u l d o v e r l ap ( d u etoa f o u r - ye a r lis tin g c yc l ean da te n ye a r pe r i o dt ode v e l o p t h eT M D L s ) , t h eo v e r a l l pa c eo f de v e l o pm e n tw o ul d s t a r ta t100 T M D L s pe r ye a r , w o r k i n g up t oa b o u t200-300 T M D L s pe r ye a r a n d s t a y a tt h a tr a t ef o r m o s to f t h epe r i o d , a n d t h e n w i n d do w n . A

ppen d ix A - 5• C o s t s t o Ot h e rF e der a l A g en ci es . GA O n o t e d t h at E P A di d n o t in cl ude t h e co s t s t o o t h e rf e der a l agen ci es t h at m i g ht r e sul t due t o t h e r e gul at i o n . Ho wev e r , t h e J u l y

2000 r e gul at i o n was s u b s t a nt i a ll y

r e v i s e d f r o m t h e in it i a l pr o p o s al an d t h er e i s n o addit i o n al b u r d en t o o t h e rA g en ci es. Ho wev e r , E P A h a s n o t est ima t e d t h e b u r d en o n o t h e rf e der a l A g en ci es f o rt h e o v er all T M DLpr o g r a m . 2 . Est i ma t eo f C o st s t o S m a l l B u si n e sses W hile t h e p r o p o s e d r e g u l a t io n fo r t h e N a t i o n a l P o llu t a nt D i s c h ar g e E limin a t io n S y s t e m ( N PDE S ) Pr o g r a m wo ul d h a v e r e s u l t ed in addit i o n al co s t s t o s mall b u s in e s s e s , t h e J u l y

2000 r e gul at i o n r e v i sin g t h e T M DLan d t h e NP DE S pr o g r a m s do n o t r e sul t in addi t i o n al co st s t o b u sin e sses. 3 . S u mma ryC o mme n t s o n D r a f t R e p o rt T

o be added af ter clos e of com m e nt per i od

A ppen d ix A - 6