Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors

for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis 1 995

Annual Supplement to

NIST Handbook 135 and

NBS Special Publication 709

Stephen R. Petersen

. U56

7/85-3273-9

1994

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Technology Administration

National Institute of Standards

and Technology

Prepared for United States Department of Energy

Federal Energy Management Program

October 1994

NISTIR 85-3273-9

(Revised 10/94)

ENERGY PRICE INDICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS

FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 1995

Annual Supplement to

NIST Handbook 135 and

NBS Special Publication 709

Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A;

and for the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New

Federal Residential Buildings, Title 10, CFR, Part 435

Stephen R. Petersen

Computing and Applied Mathematics Laboratory

Office of Applied Economics

Gaithersburg, MD 20899

October 1994

Prepared for:

U.S. Department of Energy

Office of the Assistant Secretary for

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

Federal Energy Management Program

Washington, DC 20585

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, Ronald H. Brown, Secretary

Techonology Administration, Mary L. Good, Under Secretary for Technology

National Institute of Standards and Technology, Arati Prabhakar, Director

FOREWORD

Please note that Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436,

Subpart A was revised in November 1990 to incorporate changes required by the Federal Energy

Management Improvement Act of 1988 (P.L. 100-615), and to reflect 10-years experience with the

Federal LCC Rule.

The principal change resulted in the FEMP discount rate being set annually by DOE. The FEMP

discount rate for 1995 is 3.0% real (i.e., net of general price inflation), and 6.6% nominal (inlcuding

inflation). The FEMP discount rate is based on long-term Treasury bond rates averaged over the

previous 12 months. This market rate is converted to a real rate using the assumed rate of general

price inflation (4.0%) in the Economic Report of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, to correspond with the constant-dollar analysis approach that is used. This procedure would result in a real discount rate for 1995 lower than the 3.0% floor prescribed in 10 CFR 436. Thus the 3.0%

floor is used as the real discount rate for FEMP economic analysis in 1995. (For further discussion

of changes in the Federal life-cycle costing rule see Notice of Final Rulemaking, Federal Register . November 20, 1990, Vol. 55, No. 224.)

This Annual Supplement uses the term "present value" instead of "present worth" for the discount

factors presented. The meaning of these two terms is considered to be identical for purposes of

economic analysis. This change in terminology was made to be consistent with the terms used in

the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) compilation of standards on building

economics (ASTM Standards on Building Economics . Third Edition, ASTM, Philadelphia, PA,

1994.)

The SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors in Part I of this report are given both for the FEMP discount rate and for the OMB Circular A-94 discount rates. The former are for evaluating Federal energy

conservation and renewable energy projects. The latter are for evaluating Federal projects subject

to OMB Circular A-94, i.e. , most Federal capital investment projects, other than energy projects and

water-resources projects.

It should be noted that OMB Circular A-94 on guidelines and discount rates for benefit-cost analysis

of federal programs was extensively revised in October 1992. There is no longer a single OMB

discount rate as in the past. OMB has specified two basic types of discount rates: (1) a discount

rate for cost-effectiveness, lease-purchase, and related analyses; and (2) a discount rate for public

investment and regulatory analyses. Only discount rates for the first type of analyses are included

in this Annual Supplement, since the primary purpose of this report is to support cost-effectiveness

studies related to the design and operation of federal facilities.

Discount rates for cost-effectiveness and lease-purchase studies are based on interest rates on

Treasury Notes and Bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 30 years. Currently (as of February

1994) five maturities have been specifically identified by OMB, and are shown here with the

corresponding real interest rate to be used as the discount rate for studies subject to OMB Circular

A-94:
Maturity:

Rate:

3-vear 5-vear 7-year 10-vear 30-vear

2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8%

OMB suggests that the actual discount rate for an economic analysis be interpolated from these

maturities and rates, based on the study period used in the analysis.

Due to limitations on the size of this Annual Supplement, discount factors for only two of these

maturities are presented: a rate for short-term analyses (up to 10 years) based on the 7-year rate (2.5%), and a rate for long-term analyses (longer than 10 years) based on the 30-year rate (2.8%).

As a result, these discount factors are for approximation purposes only. It is suggested that the NIST

Building Life Cycle Cost (BLCC) or DISCOUNT programs be used to compute the present value

factors for the discount rate corresponding to the length of the study period when approximate values

are not satisfactory for the project analysis.

IV
PREFACE

This is the 1995 edition of energy prices and discount factors for life-cycle cost analysis as established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in Subpart A of Part 436 of Title 10 of the

Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR Part 436, Subpart A), and amplified in the Life-Cycle Costing

Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program (NIST Handbook 135). The data are provided

as an aid to implementing life-cycle cost evaluations of potential energy conservation and renewable

energy investments in existing and new Federally owned and leased buildings.

The life-cycle costing methods and procedures as set forth in 10 CFR, Part 436, Subpart A, are to be followed by all Federal agencies, unless specifically exempted, in evaluating the cost effectiveness

of potential energy conservation and renewable energy investments in Federally owned and leased

buildings.

As called for by legislation, the National Institute of Standards and Technology has provided

technical assistance to the U.S. Department of Energy in the development and implementation of life- cycle costing methods and procedures. This is the second of a three-volume set which together

provide the methods, data, and computational tools for life-cycle cost analysis of Federal energy

projects.

Included in the three-volume set for Federal life-cycle cost analysis are the following:

(1) Life-Cvcle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program. National Institute of

Standards and Technology, Handbook 135 (1987). (Under Revision)

The manual is a guide to understanding life-cycle costing and related methods of economic analysis

as they are applied to Federal decisions. It describes the required procedures and assumptions,

defines and explains how to apply and interpret economic performance measures, gives examples of

Federal decision problems and their solutions, explains how to use the energy price indices and

discount factors which are updated annually in the supplement, and provides worksheets and other

computational aids and instructions for calculating the required measures.

(2) Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cvcle Cost Analysis . National Institute of

Standards and Technology, NISTIR 85-3273 (updated annually).

This report, which is updated annually, gives the energy price and discount factor multipliers needed

to estimate the present value of energy and other future costs. The data are based on energy price

projections developed by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy.

Request the latest edition when ordering.

v
(3) NIST "Building Life Cycle Cost" (BLCC) Computer Program. National Institute of Standards

and Technology, NISTIR 4481 (May 1993).

The NIST Building Life-Cycle Cost program provides comprehensive economic analysis capabilities

for the evaluation of proposed capital investments that are expected to reduce the long-term operating

costs of buildings and building systems. NIST BLCC is designed to run on IBM PC and compatible

microcomputers with approximately 640 K of random access memory (RAM). BLCC computes the

for each alternative, compares project alternatives in order to determine which has the lowest LCC,

performs cash flow analyses, and computes net savings, savings-to-investment ratio (SIR), and

adjusted internal rate of return (AIRR) for project alternatives over their designated study period.

BLCC can be used to perform economic analysis of Federal and of private sector projects. BLCC

(version 4.2) uses the 1995 energy price data in NISTIR 85-3273-9. BLCC in its application to Federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects is consistent with NIST Handbook 135

(see #\ above). In its application to non-energy projects, BLCC is consistent with OMB Circular

A-94. In its application to private-sector and non-Federal public-sector projects, BLCC is consistent

with ASTM standards for building economics.

Included on the BLCC disk is BLCC Quick Input, a simplified version of BLCC which can be used

to set up an analysis of multiple project alternatives. Also included is the DISCOUNT program

(version 3.4), which can calculate present value, future value, and annual value factors for any

discount rate and study period. DISCOUNT can access the DOE energy price projections included on the BLCC disk to compute the UPV* factors needed for Federal LCC analyses of energy projects,

consistent with the factors included in this report.

The three-volume set can also be used to perform economic evaluations of Federal building projects

which are not primarily for conserving energy or providing renewable energy but which have an

energy cost component. NIST Handbook 135 explains both applications.

The U.S. Department of Energy was directed by legislation and executive order to make available

to the private sector the methods, procedures, and related aids developed for Federal use. In response to this directive, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, under sponsorship of

the U.S. Department of Energy, published a life-cycle costing book for use by the private sector

entitled Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost Energy Decisions . NBS SP 709 (January 1987). The

private sector guide is supported by the data provided here, as well as by the BLCC computer

program. The BLCC program (version 4.2) supersedes the NBSLCC program which is documented

in SP 709. BLCC provides LCC computational support for private sector projects as well as for

Federal projects.

To order any of the printed publications contact:

Advanced Sciences, Inc. 1525 Wilson Blvd, Suite 1200

Arlington, VA 22209-9998

(703) 243-4900

vi
Please request the publications by name and number.

To order BLCC for analyses of Federal buildings, contact the above address. Other users may order

BLCC from one of the following:

PC Software Interest Group

1030D E. Duane Ave.

Sunnyvale, CA 94086

(408) 730-9291

FlowSoft

5 Oak Forest Court

Saint Charles, MO 63303

(314) 441-1022

Energy Information Services

P.O. Box 381

St. Johnsbury, VT 05819-0381

(802) 748-5148

Workshops on the life-cycle costing method and energy analysis are conducted at locations around

the country each year. The workshops include training and software for both BLCC and an energy

analysis computer program called "A Simplified Energy Analysis Method" (ASEAM). A schedule

of workshops can be obtained from the Office of Applied Economics, National Institute of Standards

and Technology, Building 226, Room B226, Gaithersburg, MD 20899, Telephone (301) 975-6132.

Three video training films in a series entitled "Least-Cost Energy Decisions for Buildings" have been

prepared by NIST. These films include "Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing", "Uncertainty and

Risk," and "Choosing Economic Evaluation Methods." The video films and companion workbooks

can be ordered from Video Transfer, Inc., 5709-B Arundel Avenue, Rockville, MD 20852, Tel (301)

881-0270.

Further information on the Federal Energy Management Program can be obtained from the Federal

Energy Management Program Staff, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and

Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy. Please direct communication to: FEMP, CE 10. 1

,

U.S. Department of Energy, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20585.

vii
ABSTRACT

This is the 1995 annual edition of energy price indices and discount factors for performing life-cycle cost analyses of energy conservation and renewable energy projects. It supports the Federal life- cycle costing methodology by updating the energy price projections and discount factors that are described, explained, and illustrated in NIST Handbook 135 (HB 135). It supports private-sector

life-cycle cost analysis by updating the energy price indices that are described, explained, and

illustrated in NBS Special Publication 709 (SP 709). It also supports the Energy Conservation

Mandatory Performance Standards for New Federal Residential Buildings (10 CFR 435) by providing

a table of factors for updating appliance label values.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author wishes to thank Mr. K. Dean DeVine of the Federal Energy Management Program of

the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for his continued support and direction of this work.

Appreciation is extended to Mr. Mark E. Rodekohr, Director, and Mr. Gerald Peabody of the

Energy Demand and Integration Division of the DOE Energy Information Administration, for

providing the energy price projections upon which this report is based, and to Mr. Cooper Richey

and Mrs. Laurene Linsenmayer for their assistance in preparing this report for publication.

IX
CONTENTS

Page

FOREWORD iii

PREFACE v

ABSTRACT viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix

LIST OF TABLES xi

ABBREVIATIONS xv

PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 1

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Discount Factors 1

B. Modified Uniform Present Value Discount Factors for Federal Use 5

C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates for Federal Use 18

D. Factors for Updating Appliance Label Values 35

PART II: TABLES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 36

Projected Average Fuel Price Indices for Private Sector Use 36

x
LIST OF TABLES

Page

A-l. SPV factors for finding the present value of future single amounts (nonfuel) .... 3

A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of future annually recurring amounts (nonfuel) 4

Ba- 1 . UPV’ discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.0% (FEMP, FY 1995). Census Region 1 (Connecticut,

Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,

Rhode Island, Vermont) 8

Ba-2. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.0% (FEMP, FY 1995). Census Region 2 (Illinois,

Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota,

Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 9

Ba-3. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.0% (FEMP, FY 1995). Census Region 3 (Alabama,

Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,

Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee,

Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 10

Ba-4. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.0% (FEMP, FY 1995). Census Region 4 (Alaska,

Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico,

Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 11

Ba-5. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.0% (FEMP, FY 1995). United States average 12

Bb-1. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 2.5% (years 1-10) and 2.8% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New

Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 13

Bb-2. UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 2.5% (years 1-10) and 2.8% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 14

xi
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Bb-3.

Bb-4.

Bb-5.

Ca-1.

Ca-2.

Ca-3.

Ca-4.

Ca-5.

Cb-1.

Page

UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 2.5% (years 1-10) and 2.8% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia,

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina,

Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 15

UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 2.5% (years 1-10) and 2.8% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho,

Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 16

UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 2.5% (years 1-10) and 2.8% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). United States average 17

Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel

type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New

Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 20

Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel

type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 22

Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel

type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia,

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina,

Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 24

Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel

type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho,

Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 26

Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel

type. United States average 28

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by

end-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually). Census

Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New

York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 30

xii
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Cb-2.

Cb-3.

Cb-4.

Cb-5.

D.

S-l.

S-2.

S-3.

Page

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by

end-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually). Census

Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska,

North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 31

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by

end-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually). Census

Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South

Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 32

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by

end-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually). Census

Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada,

New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 33

Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation, by

end-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually). United

States average 34

Factors for updating appliance label values 35

Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6%, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine,

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode

Island, Vermont) 38

Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6%, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,

Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota,

Wisconsin) 40

Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6%, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas,

Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,

West Virginia) 42

xiii
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

S-4. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6%, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California,

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,

Wyoming) 44

S-5. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6%, by end-use sector and fuel type. United States average 46

xiv
ABBREVIATIONS

COAL Steam Coal

DIST Distillate Oil

ELEC Electricity

FY Fiscal Year

GASLN - Gasoline

LCC Life-Cycle Cost

LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas

N Number of Discount Periods (in Years)

NTGAS - Natural Gas

RESID Residual Oil

SPV Single Present Value (Factor)

UPV Uniform Present Value (Factor)

UPV* Modified Uniform Present Value (Factor)

xv

PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST

ANALYSIS

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Discount Factors

Table A-l presents the single present value (SPV) factors for finding the present value of future

nonfuel, nonannually recurring amounts, such as repair and replacement costs and salvage values.

The formula for finding the present value (P) of a future amount (F) is the following:

P F x

1

(1 + d)N

F x SPVN ,

where d = discount rate, and

N = number of periods, such as years, until F occurs.

Table A-2 presents uniform present value (UPV) factors for finding the present value of future

nonfuel amounts recurring annually, such as routine maintenance costs. The formula for finding the

present value (P) of an annually recurring uniform amount (A) is the following:

P A x

(1 + df - 1

d( 1 + d) N

= A x UPVN ,

where d = discount rate, and

N = number of periods, such as years, over which A recurs.

In Tables A-l and A-2 the factors are given for both the FEMP and the OMB Circular A-94 discount

rates. The factors based on the FEMP discount rate are for finding the present value of future

amounts associated with Federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects. The factors

based on the OMB discount rates are for finding the present value of future amounts associated with

most other Federal projects (except those specifically exempted from OMB Circular A-94). Both

the FEMP and the OMB discount rates used in these Tables are defined for Federal use to be "real"

rates exclusive of general price inflation. The factors are applied as multipliers to future amounts

which are stated in "constant" dollars, that is, exclusive of general price inflation.

Examples of How to Use the Factors:

SPV(FEMP): To compute the present value of a replacement cost expected to occur in the 8th year

for an energy efficient heating system, go to Table A-l, find the 3.0% SPV factor for year 8

(0.789), and multiply the factor by today’s replacement cost. "Today’s" replacement cost is the cost

as of the date of analysis.

1
SPV(OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 5th year for a floor

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-l, find the 2.5% SPV factor for year 5 (0.884), and

multiply the factor by today’s repair cost.

SPV(OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 15th year for a floor

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-l, find the 2.8% SPV factor for year 15 (0.661), and

multiply the factor by today’s repair cost.

UPV(FEMP): To compute the present value of an annually recurring maintenance cost for a renewable energy system over 20 years, go to Table A-2, find the 3.0% UPV factor for 20 years

(14.88), and multiply the factor by the annual maintenance cost stated in today’s dollars.

UPV(OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning over 10 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), go to Table A-2, find the

2.5% UPV factor for 10 years (8.75), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost stated in

today’s dollars.

UPV(OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning over 25 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), got to Table A-2, find the

2.8% UPV factor for 25 years (17.81), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost stated in

today’s dollars.

NOTE: The UPV factors are generally applied to costs which recur annually in substantially the same amount (in constant dollars), e.g., routine operating and maintenance costs. These costs usually occur over the service period of the building life. If there is a planning/design/construction

period before the service life begins, during which these annually costs do not occur, the appropriate

UPV factor for the service period is the difference between the UPV factor for the entire study

period and the UPV factor for the planning/design/construction period. For example, if the

planning/design/construction period is 3 years and the service period is 25 years, for a total study

period of 28 years, the appropriate UPV factor (from Table A-2, FEMP 3.0% discount rate) is 18.76 - 2.83 = 15.93.

For further explanation and illustration of how to use these factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

2
Table A-l. SPV factors for finding the present value

future single amounts (non -fuel

)

Single1 Present Value (SPV) Factors

Year of FEMP OMB Discount Rates

3 Occurrence Discount rate Short term

0 Long Termc

(t) 3.02 2.52 2.82

1 0.971 0.976 0.973

2 0.943 0.952 0.946

3 0.915 0.929 0.920

4 0.888 0.906 0.895

5 0.863 0.884 0.871

6 0.837 0.862 0.847

7 0.813 0.841 0.824

8 0.789 0.821 0.802

9 0.766 0.801 0.780

10 0.744 0.781 0.759

11 0.722 0.738

12 0.701 0.718

13 0.681 0.698

14 0.661 0.679

15 0.642 0.661

16 0.623 0.643

17 0.605 0.625

18 0.587 0.608

19 0.570 0.592

20 0.554 0.576

21 0.538 0.560

22 0.522 0.545

23 0.507 0.530

24 0.492 0.515

25 0.478 0.501

26 0.464 0.488

27 0.450 0.474

28 0.437 0.462

29 0.424 0.449

30 0.412 0.437

3 OMB discount rates as of March 1994. 0MB rates are expected to be

revised in February 1995.

b Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period

c Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period

3
Table A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of

annually recurring uniform amounts (non -fuel)

Uniform Present Value (UPV) Factors

Year of

Occurrence

(t)

FEMP

Discount rate

3.02

0MB Discount Rates

3 Short term

b Long Term

1 2.52 2.82

1 0.97 0.98 0.97

2 1.91 1.93 1.92

3 2.83 2.86 2.84

4 3.72 3.76 3.73

5 4.58 4.65 4.61

6 5.42 5.51 5.45

7 6.23 6.35 6.28

8 7.02 7.17 7.08

9 7.79 7.97 7.86

10 8.53 8.75 8.62

11 9.25 9.36

12 9.95 10.07

13 10.63 10.77

14 11.30 11.45

15 11.94 12.11

16 12.56 12.76

17 13.17 13.38

18 13.75 13.99

19 14.32 14.58

20 14.88 15.16

21 15.42 15.72

22 15.94 16.26

23 16.44 16.79

24 16.94 17.31

25 17.41 17.81

26 17.88 18.30

27 18.33 18.77

28 18.76 19.23

29 19.19 19.68

30 19.60 20.12

a 0MB discount rates as of March 1994. 0MB rates are expected to be

revised in February 1995.

b Short-term discount rate based on 0MB discount rate for 7-year study period.

c Long-term discount rate based on 0MB discount rate for 30-year study period.

4
B. Modified Uniform Present Value Discount Factors for Federal Use

(Based on the FEMP and OMB discount rates and DOE-projected rates of

change in energy prices, both of which exclude general price inflation)

This section presents "modified" uniform present value (UPV*) discount factors for the 4 Census

regions and for the United States. The factors are modified in the sense that they incorporate the

annual rate of energy price changes currently projected by DOE for the years 1995-2023. There are two sets of tables: the "Ba" tables present UPV* factors based on the FEMP discount rate (3.0%

real), and the "Bb" tables present UPV* factors based on two OMB discount rates (2.5% real for

short-term study periods of 1 to 10 years, 2.8% real for long-term study periods of 11 to 30 years).

The factors presented in the "Ba" tables, based on the FEMP discount rate, are for calculating the

present value of energy costs or savings accruing over 1 to 25 years and are to be used in life-cycle cost analyses of Federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects. Factors are reported

in the "Ba" tables for 30 years to accommodate a planning/design/construction period of up to 5

years. (See "Examples of How to Use UPV* Factors" below for instructions on use with

planning/design/construction periods.)

The factors presented in the "Bb" tables, based on the OMB discount rates, are for calculating the

present value of energy costs or savings accruing over 1 to 30 years and are to be used for life-cycle cost analysis of the energy component of Federal projects that are not primarily for conserving

energy or providing renewable energy.

Both sets of factors apply only to annual energy usage or savings that are the same each year over

the service period that recur in uniform amounts. Refer to NIST Handbook 135 for evaluating

annual energy amounts that vary in amount over time.

The UPV* factors incorporate rates of change in energy prices computed from prices projected by

the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy. Projections at the

national level to the year 2010 are reported in the Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (DOE/EIA0383(94)). Assumptions underlying the model used by EIA to project energy prices to the year 2010

are presented in Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (DOE/EIA-0527(94)). EIA does

not publish projections beyond the year 2010. Consequently, a separate methodology was used by

EIA to generate energy prices from 2011 to 2030. For each region, energy prices by sector and fuel

type are assumed to grow annually at the same average rate as the national price for the

corresponding sector/fuel type during the period 1990-2010. The EIA price projections are not

intended to forecast actual future prices, but rather what could happen under the conditions described

in the report and the referenced documents.

The formula for finding the present value (P) of future energy costs or savings is the following:

AT P = Ao x T (1994+f) = A x UPV\ , (Udf

5
where A, base-year dollar cost of energy, i.e., the annual quantity of energy times its price

in today’s dollars;

t = counter used to designate each year, with t=l for the year 1995;

N = number of periods, e.g. years, over which energy costs or savings accrue;

I(i 994 +o = projected average fuel price index1 given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5

for the year 1994 -ht and

d = discount rate.

Examples of How to Use UPV* Factors:

UPV*(FEMP discount rate, no planning/design/construction period): To compute the present value

of heating with distillate oil over 15 years for an energy-conserving design of a Federal office

building in New Mexico, go to Table Ba-4, find the UPV* factor for commercial distillate for 15

years (14.65), and multiply the factor by the annual heating cost in today’s dollars. The cost in

"today’s" dollars is the cost as of the date of analysis.

UPV*(FEMP discount rate, with planning/design/construction period): (1) Find the UPV* factor for

the combined lengths of the planning/design/construction period and the occupancy period (not to exceed 30 years), and (2) subtract from (1) the UPV* factor for the planning/design/construction

period alone. The difference is the UPV* factor for the years over which energy costs or savings

accrue. For example, suppose an energy-conserving Federal office building in New York is being

designed. It is expected to have a planning/design/construction period of 5 years, after which it will

be occupied for at least 25 years. To compute the present value of natural gas costs over 25 years

of occupancy, go to Table Ba-1 and find the UPV* factors for commercial natural gas for 5 years

(4.82) and for 30 years (24.75). The difference (19.93) is the UPV* factor for natural gas costs over 25 years, beginning 5 years hence. Multiply 19.93 by the annual natural gas cost in today’s dollars

to calculate the present value of natural gas costs over the study period.

UPV*(OMB discount rates): To compute the present value of electricity costs over 30 years

associated with the occupancy of a Federal office building in Ohio (where energy conservation is not

a specific consideration in the LCC analysis), go to Table Bb-2, find the UPV* factor for commercial

electricity for 30 years (21.81), and multiply by the annual electricity cost in today’s dollars.

NOTE: Because the discount rate used to calculate the Bb tables (OMB discount rate) is different

for years 1-10 (2.5%) than for years 11-30 (2.8%), these factors cannot be used with a planning/design/construction period as shown above for the Ba tables (FEMP discount rate). Use

the BLCC or DISCOUNT computer program for this purpose. For further explanation of the use of UPV* factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the 4 Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4 Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data

which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data

for guidance.

'For greater precision, the UPV* factors reported in the Ba and Bb tables were computed using

the unrounded form of the indices given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5.

6
WEST

midwest

northeast

(Region

4)

(Region

2)

(Region

1)

7
Table

Ba-1.

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

9

Discount

rate

=

3.0

percent

(FEMP)

Census

Region

1

(Connecticut,

Maine,

Massachusetts,

New

Hampshire.

New

Jersey.

New

York

.

Pennsylvania

.

Rhode

Island,

Vermont)

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8

UPW*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate

a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.

(See

p. 6

for

instructions

on

use.

)
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factors

are

reported

for

years

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to

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a

planning/construction

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of

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to5

years.

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p. 6

for

instructions

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13

0MB

discount

rate

as

of

March

1994.

0MB

discount

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

February

1995.
Table

Bb-2.

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Discount

Rate

=

2.51

(years

1-10)

and

2.8*

(years

11-30),

(0MB

Circular

A-94

a)

Census

Region

2

(Illinois.

Indiana.

Iowa,

Kansas.

Michigan,

Minnesota,

Missouri

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Nebraska.

North

Dakota.

Ohio,

South

Dakota.

Wisconsin)

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of

March

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0MB

discount

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

February

1995.
Table

Bb-3.

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Discount

Rate

=

2.5*

(years

1-10)

and

2.8*

(years

11-30).

(0MB

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A-94

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3

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Arkansas.

Delaware.

District

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Florida.

Georgia.

Kentucky.

Louisiana.

Maryland.

Mississippi.

North

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South

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as

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March

1994.

0MB

discount

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

February

1995.
Table

Bb-5.

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Discount

Rate

=

2.5*

(years

1-10)

and

2.8*

(years

11-30),

(0MB

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discount

rate

as

of

March

1994.

0MB

discount

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

February

1995.
C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates for Federal Use

(Indices and escalation rates exclude general price inflation)

Table C. "Regional and U.S. average base-year fuel prices by end-use sector and major fuel," has

been discontinued. Use your actual energy prices as of the date the analysis is performed as the

starting point for estimating present value energy costs.

Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 present projected average fuel price indices for the 4 Census regions and

for the United States. These are multipliers which when applied to today’s prices provide estimates

of the corresponding future-year prices in constant base-year dollars (beginning of year 1995). The

indices reflect end-of-year prices. End-of-year indices are needed because energy prices are discounted from the end of the year in calculating the UPV* factors. Constant dollar prices are needed when discounting is performed with a real discount rate (i.e., one which does not include

general price inflation).

Example of How to Use the Indices:

To estimate the price of industrial steam coal at the end of year 2005 in Connecticut, go to Table

Ca-1, find the year 2005 index for industrial steam coal (1.05), and multiply by the price for

industrial steam coal in Connecticut at the beginning of 1995.

For further explanation of how to use these tables, see NIST Handbook 135.

Tables Cb-1 through Cb-5 present the projected average fuel price escalation rates (percentage

change compounded annually) for seven selected periods from 1995 to 2025 for the 4 Census regions

and for the United States. Note that these are "real" rates exclusive of general price inflation. Their use results in prices expressed in constant dollars.

The average fuel escalation rates consolidate the information provided by the indices in the Ca tables so that trends in projected price changes can be seen at a glance. They are provided primarily to accommodate those who use computer programs which require escalation rates as inputs.

Unless there is a compelling reason to use escalation rates, it is recommended that you use the

indices in the Ca tables when you need estimates of future-year energy prices, since the indices

include year-to-year information rather than averages over a number of years.

Example of How to Use the Escalation Rates:

To estimate the price of residential distillate at the end of 1999 (p^) in Wyoming using the escalation

rates, go to Table Cb-4 and find the 1995-1995 and 1996-2000 escalation rates for residential

distillate (1.2% for one year and 1.9% for four years, respectively). Enter these values and the price

18
of residential distillate in Wyoming at the -end of 1994 (p94)

2

into the following formula. Then solve

for the 1999 energy price (stated in end-of-year 1994 dollars):

P99 = Am x (1 + e

x )

k

' x (1 + ej*2

= x (1 + 0.012) 1 x (1 + 0.019)4

= Pm x 1.0911

where py = Price at end of year y;

ej = Annual compound escalation rate for period i from the Cb tables (in decimal form);

and

k, = Number of years over which escalation rate occurs.

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the 4 Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4 Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data

which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data

for guidance.

2 The price at the end of year 1993 is the same as the price at the beginning of 1994.

year 1993 is used here to maintain consistent notation.

End-of-
Table

Ca-1.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region

1

(Connecticut.

Maine.

Massachusetts.

New

Hampshire.

New

Jersey.

New

York.

Pennsylvania

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Rhode

Island.

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20
Table

Ca-1,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region 1

(Connecticut.

Maine.

Massachusetts.

New

Hampshire.

New

Jersey.

New

York.

Pennsylvania.

Rhode

Island.

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pH pH pH pH pH r-H pH pH pH pH pH 1 (1) CH c cz 1 1 1 4-1 CZ UJ c 0 -f-

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i CD 1 CM ^3- CD CM CD OO LO 03 03 LO 03 03

O CM 1 CD cnr^

TD o> 1 1—1 1 CM CD CD CD O^tNCDO O^tNlOr-l CD i f-D QJ

CD CD i CD 1 O CO • 4—>

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1—1 1—1 pH pH pH pH pH pH pH pH r-H pH r-H 1 C— '•

/ pH

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. >—i

LO 1 LO o 1 1 1 1 CM CD CD CD O'J’NCDO O ^3" I''- D- i—i

CD 1 S- i CD 1 CL • CNJ I 11

i—

H i—l 1—1 1—1 pH pH pH pH pH pH pH pH pH pH 1 i i—1 1 CD i—l O CO cd cd 40 lo ^3" ^3" O ^3" CD CM 1 CM i i—l 1 CM CD CD CM O D- 40 CD CD <0 *3" D" 1—1 CD 1 f\ 1 o 1 1 CNJ i 11 1“1 1—1

i—l r-H pH pH pH pH pH pH pH pH pH pH r-H 11 pH 1 o 1 03 03 OO 40 CD r-4 CM CD I-'— CD CM LO r-4 03 CD 1 0 1 1—1 1 i—H CNJ CM CM O"3-L0CDO O^-VO'TO CD I CD 1 ' CNJ i 11 i—1 r-H 1—i 1—1 pH r—H pH r-H pH pH pH pH pH pH 1 pH00 i 1 1 1 r— 1 1 CL i CD 1 r— T— 1— CD 1 E i C3 1 •r— •r— •f— C CZ 1 3 i Li— 1 o O r— 01

O -r- 1 l/) 1 1 >> 00 -i— l/> >-> -I— 00 •f— r— 1 LO i -o 1 P— 4—1 CD ra 4-1 (DO Cl 44 aio ns.

4->

O • <c i C i fD i- 4—1 CO 1 1—4-1 CD fD 1— •!— 4-4 CO fD fD ln 1 i fD l v— CD CD CD CD <D i— O fD CD fDi— O 4-> <D • ai i 1 4-1 •r— r— 1 — >— CD f— C_> •r- •«- i— ra .— CD L_ O • u i i_ 1 SC s_ ,

fD CD S- i— 3 fD S- S- <— 3 fD 0 > ' o 1 CD 4-> -r~ S_ 4-1 TD S- E 4—1 4-> -r— TD S— E 0. t_ 1 1 4-4 ' TD CD 4-> 13 CD CD 4-1 -l— 3 CD LO U 4-1 -r- D (D 00 0 1 CL 1 CJ 1 *r— <D oo CO 4-1 E CD 00 00 4-> CD 3 CL) 00 00 4-1 a> CZ 4-1 1 i CD l 00 i— *r— Q_ 03 E' >- CD (D 4-> TD •— *1— CD ID4J fD O > P— i 00 i CD LlJ O _I S2 OUJOQSZOO SZLlIOQCZLO c- 2: i •r 1 i CD »—

1— > 0

21
Table

Ca-2.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region

2

(Illinois.

Indiana,

Iowa.

Kansas.

Michigan.

Minnesota.

Missouri.

Nebraska,

North

Dakota.

Ohio.

South

Dakota.

Wisconsin)

CTO i CTO LO CO I"'- CNJ CD CD CD cnj co r^. co CD i O I «—I CO CO C\l l LO CO CO CD <—I "3" CO CO CNJ CO i CO

CD i CNJ i

i r—H i—1 r—1 r—H r——1 r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H 1

1 r—H

OO ' r'» co *3- ld rHCONTCOCO CO CO Lf) LD cr> CO i CD i t—1 CO CO CNJ rH^-VOCNJO CD "3" CD CO *—

I

CNJ i co

CD i CNJ »

i r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r-H r—H r—H r-H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H 1

1 r-H

' Nf^HCNJCO ONTrHCOIN CO CD CNJ co i cto CD i r-H CO CO CNJ t—I CO CNJ CD CD ^ CO CO r—l CNJ i LO

CD i CNJ •

i

r—1 r—H r-H r—H r—H r—H r—H r-H r-H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H 1

1 r—H

CO ' CNJ CO CD CD OO i—l CO CO i"''. r-~- cto cnj LO 1 LO o ' r-H CNJ CO CNJ CD ^ LO CNJ CD CD CO LO CNJ i—

I

CNJ i LO

CD i CNJ i r—H r—H r—H r—H i—1 r—l r—H r—H r—H r-H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H 1 r—H

I LO 1 o lo r~- r-- CO CO CO CO CO LO LO ^ LO CNJ CO i r—H

i CD i r—H CNJ CNJ <—

l

CD CO LO CNJ CO CD CO LO CNJ *—

1

CNJ i LO

i CD i

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1

r—H r—H r—H r-H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H 1

1 r—H

i • CD LO LO LO NLOONO LO CNJ O CO O CNJ i

i O i CD CNJ CNJ r-H O CO LO '—I i—

1

CO CO LO CNJ i—

1

CNJ i

i CD I

i CNJ i

i i r—H r—H r—H r-H r—H r—H r—H H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H 1

1

r—

1

GO 1 CO 1 CO CNJ CO CO CNJ *3" ^3" CD LO CD LO O 1CD 1 co

CL) i CD i CD CNJ CNJ r-H OCOLf -HO CO CNJ ^ CNJ O CNJ i u • CD i 00

• f

i CNJ i r—H r—H r—H r—H r-H r—H r—H r—H r—

1

r—H r—H r—H r—H r 1 r—1 1 QJ c N r—H TD ^ 1 1 1 (J CD

CD CD •r— CD

•—i CD i CNJ i NCDOtH LO CO CD CO CD LO LO CD LO CD i TD CO

i CD i CD r-H CNJ r-H CD CNJ CO <—1 «—

l

CO CNJ CO r-H CD r—H 1 CrHCO

Qj r—H i CD i •1 o • CNJ • r~H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r-H 1 II r-H

•r- ii i i 1 CD

L- LD LO

Cl. LO 1 r-H 1 LO I"'-' r— CD LO ^3- CO r-H CD "d- CNJ 'CT "3- D-. LO 1 r- CD CNJ

CTO 1 CD 1 CD r—H r—H r—H CO CNJ CO <—l CO CD CNJ CO *—I CO r 1 1 S- CD CO

i— O0 • CD 1 Q_r—

1

Qj r—H i CNJ i r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r 1 r—H r 1 r—H r—H r-H r—H r—H r—H 1 r—H C3 1 1 1 .

Ll_ C •r— 03

ro i CD i LiD 3- ^ CTO *3" CD 1 - CD LO co co cnj • O OJN

S- CD i CD i CD r—H r—H CD CO CNJ CNJ i—1 CO CD r—1 CNJ r-H CD r 1 1 >->CNJ

<T3 >- i CD i td

CD i CNJ » r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r-H r—H r—H r—H r 1 r 1 r 1 r 1 r 1 r—1 1 i— 4— t—

1

>- *4- i i 1 S- O

i O O 4- I CDv i 3“ *—* CD CO LO CNJ CD LO CO ^3" CNJ r—l LO CNJ i 3 CDCNJ O CD i CTO i CD r—H r—H CD CO r—l CNJ CD CD CD «

1 CNJ r-H CD r-H 1 c: cnj

i C 1 O'! I TD -r- • TD i- 1 r—1 1 r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r 1 r—H r—H r—H r—H r-H 1 CD C I c c 1 1 1 4-> £=

LlJ c O -r-

•r— i CO i COOOCON CO CNJ r"- CO "3- CNJ t—1 CD CD '3- CD i a> cni^

TD CD i CTO i CD CD CD CD CD r—I r-H CD CD CD r—It—1 CD CD r-H 1 <—> CD <—1 CD CD i CTi i O CO • 4-> OO 1 r—H 1 r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H 1 5- ' r-H U ^CD

1 1 1 o_

<—) i i CNJ LO LO D- CNJ CD CO 1"- CO r—1 OO CO CO CNJ CO i CNJ o l CTO 1 CD CD CD CD CD CD r-H CD CD CD CD t—l CD CD CD i r—H £_ 1 CTO 1 Cl. 1 r—H 1

1 1 r—H r—H r—H r-H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r-H 1

1 r—H

1 1 CNJ •'d' CO LO i

«

1 LO CD LO CNJ LO 1 OO

1 O'! 1 CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CO 1 CD

i CTO i

1 r-H 1 r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r-H r—H r—H r-H 1 r—H

LD I C\J i l CO I CNJ LD CO CO icmlocoo CO

CD • CD CD CD CD CO CO CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD • CD

CD

r—H 1 r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r-H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H 1 r—H c

o

1 1 4-) 1— 1 1 CL

CD 1 i r— i CD i E

o l *r— •r— •r— C C i o

u_ i o Or— Or— O *r— i CO

i >•> CO >, -1—00 >D t- to •r— r— 1 CO TD • i— 4-) CD 03 D (DO iCi— 4-> (DO 03 i 4—) O i c

C i ro -r- 4-> CD 1 1— 4-J CD 13 — «- 4-J O ID 03 00 l 03 I •»—<_> CD ID U iDi— O ID CD Id ( o 4_> fD i CD

' 4-> -f- <— | — -•— — rO i— O •i— ••— •— 03 i— o CD • O

L_ l C i-<— 03 U £- i— ID ID C- L_ , O 03 O 1 •f— o 1 CD 4-> -r- C— 4-> -1— "CD s- E 4-> 4-> TD s- E CL C 1 4-) 1 TD O 4-> o CD UD'r D ID t/> O 4-> i- O TJ L0 O 1 Q_

CJ 1 r- CD LO CD 4-> E CD L0 L0 4-) CD O CD LO 00 4-) CD £= 4-) 1 CD 1 CO 1 -r— Ql. 03 E > 1- CD Id 4-) TD — -i- CD in 4—) ID O i r—

OO i (DUJO_JZ O LlJ O QC Z OO CLlIOQC Z OO c s: i •r—

i DC O »—1 ' o

22
Table

Ca-2,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region

2

(Illinois.

Indiana.

Iowa,

Kansas,

Michigan.

Minnesota.

Missouri

.

Nebraska.

North

Dakota,

Ohio.

South

Dakota.

Wisconsin)

• ^ 1 LD rH 03 LO C0rHO3^N CM 1 03 LO CO CO 1 CO

i <XI i co lo lo Ln i—1 03 CO LO I—

1

CM OO CO LD 1 CD

i CD

» C\J t—1 t—H OvJ t—H t—H CM

1

1 rH t—H r—1 r—

1

1 t—H t-H OvJ t—H t—H t—H 1

1

i co i OVDCO CO CO CO t—1 LO CM CM CM CM CD I t—H CM i co m lo Ln <—I OO CO LO \—

1

CM OO ^ OO <3- LD i C3

i CD

• C\J

•

1 t-H t—H t—H t——

1

1 t—H t—H OvJ t—H t—H t—1 t—H OvJ t—H t—H t—H l

1 CM

i CM 1 COX'CfrH co lo r-- 03 lo t-H i—l LO OO CD oo > 03

i CM i co Ln lo Ln rH OO CM LO i—

1

CM OO CO 1 LO I 03

1 C\J

1

1 r-H r—H t—H i—

H

1 t-H t—H OvJ r—H t—H t—H t—H OvJ t—H t—H t—H 1

1 t—H

1 t—

1

i CM m CM 03 CO CM CM LO LO rH OO 03 LO 03 LD 1 LD

1 CM i co Ln lo rH CO CM LO rH CM I'-' CM 1''-- CO Ln 1 03

i CD

t—H t—H OvJ t—H t—

1

1 OvJ

1

1 t-H t—H t—H t—H

1

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r—H 1

1 t-H

i CD i CD 03 f"'. CO 03 lo -3- CZD LO CO rH oo CO 1

i CM i COLOLO^f t—H t—1 LD t—

1

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1 t—H t—H OvJ t—H t-H t—H t—H OvJ t—H t—H t—H 1

1 t—H

1 03 I 03 cm LO CO LO rH CM CO CD CM r~-~ OO I'-'. CD I CM

1 t 1 i cm Ln Ln^ t—H t—H LO t“H CMNrKDCO LD i 03

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l r-H t—H OvJ t-H t—

1

t—H 1

1 1—1

<J1 1 oo i co CD Ln co co-^t LO 03 CM 03 03 rH LO CO 1 03

CD 1 1—1 i cMimn^ .—i cd i—

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rH LD rH LO CO ^ 1 OO U 1 CD 00

i CM 1 t-H t—H t-H r—H t—H t—H OvJ t—H t—H t—H t—H OvJ t—H t—H t—H 1 (D ^ ' t—H TD ^ 1 1 1 CD CD

SZ CD •r— O >—> CD 1 i X-COCOrH COrlrlNCM 03IVC0rHLj- LD i td

1 t 1 i cm ^ lo

d- .—i r— czd *—

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rH LD CD LO CO i CZ rH OO

(D 1 CD •r— u i CM 1 t—H t—H t—H t-H t—1 t—H OvJ t—H t—H t-H t-H OvJ t—H t—H t—H 1 II

'—

1

r~ II

1 1 1 CD

£_ o m cl Ln i LO 1 LO LO CD 03 CO CO LO LO rH CO ^ CD OO CM 1 •1— 03 •'3- cn 1 r—

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i cm lo co HL0 03^-H rH LD CD LD CO ^ l £_ 03 OO r— cn 1 CD CLt-H d) t~

H

i CM 1 t-H t—H t-H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H OvJ t—H t—H r-H i t—H Z3 1 1 1 .— 5- U_ £_ •r— ro fD i Ln 1 LO LO OO 1—

CO LO <—1 CO o CO t-H LO LD t—

1

r-H 1 O CD CM

C_ CD 1 i—

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1

rH LO 03 LD CO ^ » D>->00 03 >- 1 CD TD

CD i CM 1 t—H t-H t-H t—H t—H t-H t—H t—H t—H t—H r-H t—H t—H t—H t 1 1 1— 4- rH

>- 4- 1 1 1 L- O

i O o 4- 1 ^ i rt CO LO LO CM CO CD 03 CO CD CM CD 03 1 2 CTDCD O cr> l r—

1

i cm oo rlLOCOLfO rH LO 03 l_n CO CO 1 CZ CO

' cz 1 CD TD -r- • TD -1- i CM 1 t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H t—H t—H t—H i—

1

t—H 1 CD CZ rH

cz c 1 1 1 +J CZ uj cz o <-

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1 CO i CM i—i ^ "3- CM CZD CM CO 03 1 - LD LD 03 OO i CD cr>r-^ TD cn 1 t—H i CM ^ CO rH LO CO CO CZD rH LD OO ^ CM CO 1 •t> cd

CD CD 1 CD O CO • +-> OO i CM 1 t—H t—H t—H t-H t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H t—H t-H t—H t—H t-H t—1 1 £— s—

t—H

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i CM i i—1 CD CM CM CM CO CO LO CO lo co czd ld LO • un o 1 rH i cm ^ CO rU/)NCOO rH LO CO ^ CM CO 1 s_ 1 o CL 1 C\J

1

1 t—H t—H t—H t—H

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1

1 r-H CO CO CM rH in LO CO CD CM CO

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1 t—H t-H t-H r—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H

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< -o l 1— +J <D <T3 -1—> CD O <TD i

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-t-D O 1 < I c 1 ro •(— -M C£J 1 1- +-> CD CD <— -r- 4-> CD fD 03 CO I

1 03 i -i— O CD co CJ ro i— O <D O fO i— O -t-> ro i (D

• I _j_) «i— r-— r— •i— — <— CD i— (_D •f— -r— i— ro .— <_> l_ CD • u l s_ I CZ C-I— CD U S- 1— D CD L Lr 3 (D O i •r—

1 O 1 CD 4-> -i- £_ £-+->•<- TD L_ Ez 4-> 4-> m- TD 5- E CL £_ I

• +-> 1 TD <_> +-> =3 (D UDr Z3 CD LO (_)+-) -r- Z3 ro LO O 1 CL

1 u I -1— CD LO CO 4-D E <D </> LO -t-> CD ID <D LO CO -t-> CD CZ 4-> 1

i CD i LO r— -I— Q_ CD El 1— CD CD+J TD >— -

1— <D ro+J ro O i r—

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i i CC CO t—H • o

23
Table

Ca-3.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region

3

(Alabama.

Arkansas.

Delaware.

District

of

Columbia.

Florida.

Georgia.

Kentucky.

Louisiana.

Maryland.

Mississippi.

North

Carolina.

Oklahoma.

South

Carolina.

Tennessee.

Texas.

Virginia.

Nest

Virginia)

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CD

CNJ

r-^ co r—. lo

i cm eg c\j

c\j LJD CD ON

CD NO CO C3 CNJ r—I CO <—I (DN CD NO i—

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OCO

r

LO

CO

CD

CD

CNJ

NO LO LD CO

t—I CNJ CNJ CNJ

CNJ 1 OO CD CD CO CNJ CD

i—I CO <—l ON OO O CO CD CO <—

l

on

CNJ LO

r"- CD

CD

CNJ

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i—I CNJ CNJ CNJ

i—i oo '—i r^ O CO CO CNJ CD I-HOCOLDN OOLOCOH CNJ ON

LO

CO

CD

CD

CNJ

CNI CNJ CNJ CO

i—l CNJ CNJ <—

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i—I LO CO CD OO O CO LD CNJ O

OCOCOON OCOUJCOrH LO

CNJ LOLO

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CD CO LO *—l CD

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cd 1 CD 1 CD r—1 t—H t—H CO CNJ ^ i—1 i—

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CD CNJ ^ CNJ t-H CNJ i <_> • CD i 00

•t— i CNJ i i 1 i—1 r—H r—

1

t—1 t—H t—H t—H t—

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•—1 CD I CNJ I OO LO LO CD CO CO ON CO ON i—l CNI 1'-'. ON CNJ ON I TD • OO

i co i CD t-H t—H t—H

1

CD CNJ CO <—I CD CD CNJ CO '—I »—

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t 1 1 drHCO

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t-H t-H t—H t-H t-H T 1 1 II »“H

•r- II 1 1 1 cd

L_ CD LO

Q_ LO 1 fH 1 OO CO CNJ ON COOCOrHN l OO CNI LO CD • •i- ON CNJ

CDN i CD i CD <—1 t—H C 3 CD CNJ CO i—l CO CD t—H CO t“H t—H t—H 1 d ON CO

r— ON 1 CD i Q_t—1 Qj i—i i CNJ i i—1 t—

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t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H 1 t—H Z3 i i 1 i— £_

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ro i CD i r^ooi\ cnj lo r^. on lo t-H LO LO CO r- LO • O (DIN d CD i C3 i CD t—H t—H CD CD »—i CNJ CD CD CD t—H CXI t 1 CD t-H 1 Do CNJ ro >- • CD i TD

CD i CNJ i t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—1 t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H 1 1 M— t-H >- 4- 1 1 1 d o I O o 4- i CD i LO OO OO LO t-h cnj cnj co i'- CD t—H t—H t—H LO CNJ I 3 ON CNI O CD i ON i CD CD CO CO CD T-H CNJ CD CD CD t—1 CXJ r-H CD r—H 1 d CNJ

i d i ON i TO -i- • TO -r- 1 1 1 1 t—H t—1 t-H t-H t-H t-H t-H t—H t-H t—H t—H t-H t-H t—H t 1 1 CD d T-H d d 1 1 1 4-J d

LlJ d (_> -i-

•1 i OO i 'd- LO LO LO co on r-~ r-~ lo ON OO LO CD LO CD I CD ONC^

TO CD l ON 1 CD CD CD CD CD CO i—1 O CD CTt CD t—H t-H CD t-H 1 <—5 CD >—

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CD CD t ON 1 O OO • 4-> CO 1 1 1 1 t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H t—H t—H t—H t—H C3 t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H 1 £— >—" t—

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1 1 t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H t-H t—H t-H t—H t-H 1

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1 r— -i— r— ro | o •i

•r— •— ro r— O CD < CD

L_ d d r— ro CD d i— =3 ro £_ d .— 13 ro o 1 •r— o l (D+Jt- L_ d 4-3 •!— TD S- E 4-> 4—3 -r— TD d E CL d 1 C_

4-> ' TD CD 4-> =3 CD (_> 4-> -r- ZD ro 00 CD 4—3 *i— =3 03 oo O i Q_

c_> 1 -i— CD LO CO 4-> E CD LO L0 4—

>

CD =3 CD L0 LO 4D CD d 4D 1 CD 1 L0 i i— CL. ro p- I Cl

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ro 4-> TD 1— •!— CD 03 4D ro O i r—

OO i (DliJO_IZ oujoa: z OO d LlJ O DC CD OO C- z; ' •r—

i DC o —

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1

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24
Table

Ca-3,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region

3

(Alabama,

Arkansas.

Delaware.

District

of

Columbia.

Florida.

Georgia.

Kentucky.

Louisiana.

Maryland.

Mississippi.

North

Carolina.

Oklahoma,

South

Carolina.

Tennessee.

Texas.

Virginia.

Nest

Virginia)

1 co co r^. Cxi CO CO 03 CNJ cr> t—4 eg i—4 CO 1 CO

1 CO LO LO lo CD CD CO LO CNJ CD OO ^3" 03 CO CO 1 CD

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1

1

1

1 1 1—4 1—1 T—

1

i—4 1—4 eg i

1 1—4 r—4 r—4 eg i—i t—4 i—4 1

1 CNJ

1 CO 1 CNJ r-H LO CD CO CD CO i—1 >—

1

03 CO CO r-~ LD r—4 1

1 C\J 1 CO LO LO LO CD) CO CO CO CNJ CD 1 CO CO CO co i CD

1 CD 1

• C\J

1

1

1 i—H i—H 1—4 r—

4

t—4 r—4 eg t—4 i—4 t—4 i—H eg r—l i—4 i—H 1

1 CNJ

t C\J 1 i—1 03 CO CO CO 1— CD CD CD CD LD OL rj CO 1 03

1 C\J 1 co lo CD 1 CNJ LO CNJ CD r— CNJ CD CO LO 1 03

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1

1

1

i—

1

i—4 i—4 i—

1

i—4 t—4 eg 1—4 i—H i—4 r—4 eg r—4 t—4 1—

1

1

1 r—4

1 i—

4

1 CD I"'. CD co co lo cxi co cn CD CNJ OO CD CNJ CO 1 CO

I C\J 1 co lo "d- CD r"-~ CNJ LO t—

1

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1

1

1 i—4 i

1 i—4 i—4 1—4 1—4 eg 1—4 1—4 i—H r—4 Cg r—4 t—4 r—4 1

1 r—4

1 CD 1 OO LO CO co cxi r^. "cr oo cd 03 co >—

i

1 CNJ 1 CNJ '^J- ^ ^ ONHLflH CD CO i—1 0-- CO LO i 03

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1

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1

i 4

' CDt 1 co cnj CO OO r—) r-H CO r-^ co cnj co cd i—H 1 CNJ

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i

1

1 r—4 t—4 i—4 i—4 r—4 i—4 eg t—4 t—4 rH r—i eg i—4 i—

1

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LO 1 CO 1 CO CNJ ^ r—l co co co oo r

r^- co cti o 03 I 03

CD 1 1—

1

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CJ i CD 1 LO

1 C\J 1 i—4 i—4 i—4 i—4 i—1 1—4 eg r—l r—4 t—4 i—i eg i—4 1—

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t—4 1 Qj T—4 TD 1 1 1 CJ CD C CD i— CD

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CNJ CDv CNJ r-H 1"- CO lo i—i t—4 lo e-H- f\ 1 TD • 1—

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1 CD 1 •| u ' CNJ 1 1—4 r—4 i—H i—l i—4 t—4 eg t—4 i

i i—i i—i eg i—4 1—4 r—4 1

II i“H r- II 1 1 1 CD

S_ O LO

CL LO 1 CO 1 ^ DON CXI <—l CO LO LO CO OO LO CO CO 1 r— 03

03 1 r—

1

1 CNJ CO ^ CO o co cn ti- 1—

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C3 LO 03 CO CNJ "ST 1 1-03 00

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1

i—4 i—4 t—4 t-H i—4 i—H t—4 r—l r—4 t—4 t—4 t—4 t—4 1 r—4 3 1 1 1 .

U_ •r— 03

fD • lo 1 co r— co lo CNJ OO CNJ CXI "3- LO LO CD 03 LO CNJ i O CD CNJ C- CD 1 t-H 1 CNJ co co co OLTICT)^ rH CD LO 03 LO CNJ ^ • DO CO

ru >- i CD 1 TD

CD i (XI 1 i—4 i—4 r—4 i—4 t—4 r—4 i—4 i—H i—H r—4 r—4 t—4 r—l t-H i—H 1 .— M— t-H D- 4- 1 1 1 s- O

i O O 4— ' 1 CNJ CO CO CO CNJ co x- CD LO CO LO CO CO CD i 2 03 CD O CD 1 r—4 1 CNJ CO CO CO OLDCO^rH CD LO CO LO CNJ * c oo

i SZ i CD 1 TD •«“ • TD <- ' CNJ 1 1—4 i—4 i—4 r—4 i—H r—4 i—4 t—I t—

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1

1 CNJ CO CO CO CD LD CO CO r-H CD LO OO LO CNJ CO 1 ’—> cd

CD CD i CD 1 o co • +-> CQ ' CNJ 1 1—4 r—4 1—4 1—4 i—4 t—4 i 4 i—4 i—H t—4 t—4 r—4 t~H t—4 i—4 1 Lv-/H

CJ w 1 1 1 Q_

CD

* r“3 ' CNJ 1 CDi CNJ CNJ CD CNJ i—1 CO CO CNJ ^•OOLOOH CO 1 LO O 1 I 1 1 <—i CO CO CO O LO 1 - CO r—l CD -3- 1"- LO CNJ CO 1

i CD 1 Q_ • eg

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1

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1 i—4

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i

1 OO t—4 t—4 CO CNJ OO "3- r-H ^LOrHrvO CO 1 CNJ

1 r—4 1 >-H CO CO CNJ I^COrH ONTXrJCNJ CO 1 r—

i CD 1

i eg

i

1

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1 t—4

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1 t—

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1

CO i

i CD 1

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1

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1 l_L_ 1 o Or— O i— O >- 1 LO

1 1 Do LO >-> -r— LO >> -l— LO •r— r— • LO

i

' TD 1 i— +J CD (T3 D (DO <Di— D (DO K3i— 4-> O 1 < C 1 ft3 -i- +-> CO — -i—h-) CD (U 1 1— 4-J CD 03 03 LO 1

• ru 1 •r U(D T3 CJ 03 i— O 03 (_> 03 i— O 4-> 03 1 CD

i 1 -4—) •»— i— i— •<— -l— i 03 r <_> <— r- , 03 • C_J C_ CD 1 CJ

I s_ 1 C3 C- i— fU (_> £— i— =3 03 S— S— .— =3 03 O 1

' o 1 (D 4-> -r- S- S 1—> -r-TD s- E 4—> -t—> -r- TD 1— E CL t- L1 H-> 1 TD CJ 4-J 33 O) UD'r 3 03 1/3 O -t-> -i— 13 03 LO O 1 Cl

1 CJ 1 •i— CD LO CD -t-> E CD LO LO +-> CD 33 (D LO LO 4-> CD C -t-> •

1 CD 1 LO i— -i— Q_ <T3 E 1 1— CD 03 H-> TO i— !— CD 03 4-> 03 O I r—

i OO 1 CD LlJ O 1 3Z O LlJ o qc z oo CLjJQQCZLO L- 21 1 •v—

1 1 CtL (_> »—

«

t— • o

25
Table

Ca-4.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region

4

(Alaska,

Arizona.

California,

Colorado,

Hawaii,

Idaho.

Montana,

Nevada,

New

Mexico.

Oregon.

Utah,

Washington,

Wyoming)

CT ' H^ificD cd o co co CXI r—l CD t—l CT CD i CD i CXI CO CO CXI i—1 LD CD CO CD CD Dl" CD ’=T i—t CO 1 LD

CD i C\J 1

1 r—H r—H r—H r—

H

t—1 t—H t-H t—

H

r-H r—1 r-H rH r-H r-H t—1 1

1 rH

CO 1 LD CD CD CXI CO t—1 CO t—l CT CD CTi i CO 1 rHOCOCM t—I LO CO C3 CO CO LD CO i—

l

CXI i LD

CD 1 CXJ 1

1 r—H r—H t—

H

r—H r—H r—H i—H r—H r—l r—1 r—l r—H r—H r-H r-H 1

1 t—

H

i c-*. cn cd ld -3- CXJ LO CD t-H HLOOUDN i CT O 1 t—l CXI CXJ CXI !—1 >=d- LD CO r-H CO CO LD CO t-H CXJ i LD

CD i C\J 1

1 r—H t—

H

r—H r—

H

t—H r-H r—H r-H r—l r—l r-H rH r—1 r—

H

r-H 1

1 r-H

LO i CD CD LO CO "3- cn cxi r-~. OCOCOON LO l LD

CD I r—l CXI CXJ CXJ i—1 CO LD CXJ »—

1

CD CO LD CO *—

I

CXJ 1 LD

CO i C\J 1

1 r-H r—1 r—l r-H i—H r-H r—l r—1 r-H r-H rH r—H r—H r—

H

r-H 1

1 r—

H

LO 1 'd'COOrH i—l LD CO 'T CT r-H O O N LD ^ 1 r—

1

CD I i—I CXI CXJ CXI I—1 CO tT CXI CO CD CO LO CXJ r-H CXI 1 LD CD i eg i r—H i—H r—1 t—

H

!—H r-H t—1 r-H r—

1

r-H r—l r—l r-H r—

H

r-H 1 T—

1

i i co cxj co cn CD CXJ -3- CXJ LO t—i co lo ld CO i I"-.

1 CD 1 r—H CXJ r—H r—

H

iHCO^tCXJO CO CXJ 'T CXJ t-H <X1 1

• CD 1

• CXJ 1

1 1 r-H r—H r—H r-H r—H r—H r—H r-H r—H r-H r-H r—H r—H r-H r—H 1

1 r—H

LO 1 CO 1 WOLj-X o cn ct o ld i—i LO CXJ t—l r—H 1 co

CD 1 CD 1 i 1 CXI 1“H rH t—1 CXJ CO CXJ CD CD CXJ CXI i—

1

CXJ i U i CD i LO

•f i CXJ i r-H r-H rH r-H r-H r-H r-H r—H r-H r—1 r—1 r—H r—H r—

1

r—H 1 QJ C X T

1 TD ^ i i 1 U CD C CO •r— CD

*—< CD 1 CXI 1 cd rH. cxj cn co co LO i—l CXJ O'. CT CXI CT i TD • CD

1 CD 1 r-H r—H r—H r—H CD CXJ CO t—l CO O CXJ CO i—I '—

1

r 1 1 C i—1 CO

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i CD i •I

u i CXJ i r-H r-H r—H r-H r-H r-H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H t—1 r—1 r—H r—1 1II r—

1

•r- || i i 1 CD

S- U LO

Q_ LO i i—l i CT Of CO CXJ IXHCriLfiLj- t—1 CO CXI LO CD i i— CT CXJ

CTi i CD i CD r—H r—H r—H CD CXJ CXJ t-H CO CD r-H CD r—H r—H r—H 1 S- CT CO

cn i CD i CLr-H • (D r—

1

1 CXI 1 r-H r-H r-H r—H r—1 r-H r-H r—H r—H r 1 r 1 r 1 r 1 r—H r—H 1 r—H o 1 1 1 .— L- u_ s_ •r— (V

ro 1 O 1 CO r—1 GO r-H LDrx co^ tHLOLOCOX LD 1 O (DX

C- CD i CD 1 CD r-H CD r-H CD r-H CXI r1 CD CD r-H CXJ r-H CD r 1 1 >>CXJ

<T3 >- i CD I "CT CD i CXJ i r-H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r 1 r—H r-H r—H r—H r—H t-H r 1 r—1 1 1 4— t—l >- >+- 1 1 1 £— O i O O 4- i CT i ld cn ld cn LO CO CD t—< LO CD i—1 r—H r—H LO CXJ i 2 cncxi o cn i CT i CO CO CD co CD r-H CXJ r—H CD CD i—1 CXJ t—1 CO r—H 1 C CXI

1 C i cn i -CT -r- • TD -r- 1 1—1 1 t—

H

r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H 1 CD C t—

1

c c 1 1 1 4-> Cl

LlJ c O -t-

•r— i CD 1 LDX lTCT Lj-OLOOt^- CT OO LD CD LD CD I cu cnr- o cn i CT 1 CD CD CO CO CD r—H r—H r—H CD CT> CD r-H r—H CD r—H 1 nttJiH

CD CD i cn i O co • 4-J CQ 1 1—1 1 r—H r—H r—H t—

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r—H r—H t-H r—1 r—

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CD r—H r—1 r—H t-H r 1 1 C. r-H CD

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i cr> cxj cd lo cxi co CO i CXJ o P CT 1 CD CD CD CD CD CD r-H CD CD CD CD r-H CD CD CD i r 1 L_ i CT 1 Q_ 1 r-H 1

1 1 r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—1 r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H 11 r—H

1 LO 1 CXJ CO r-H LD r—H r—H CD CXI CD LO CD LD 1 co

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i cn i

1 r-H 1 r—H r—H r-H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H r—H t-H r—H r—H rH r-H 1 r—H

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26
Table

Ca-4,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region

4

(Alaska.

Arizona.

California.

Colorado.

Hawaii.

Idaho.

Montana.

Nevada.

New

Mexico.

Oregon.

Utah.

Washington.

Wyoming)

• ^ 1 cr* *—i r

CO r-H co CD CD CT> t—H CXJ t—H LO CO 1 CO

i CXI 1 CO CO CO LO >—i CD CO CO (XJ O OO 'Ct' CD CO CO 1 CD

1 cz> 1

• (XI

i

1

1 t—H i—1 r—H r-H t—H t—H (XJ t—H r-H t-H t—H CXJ t—H t—H t—H 11 (XJ

i CO 1 x~ O'! "cj- uo CO CO CXJ CO CD CD CO CO X- LO T 1 1

1 C\J 1 CO LO CO LO H CO CO CO 1—

1

oxcococo CO 1 CD

1 CD 1

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1 r-H r-H t—H r-H t—H t—H C\J t—H t—H t—H t—H CXJ t—H t-H t—H 1

1 (XJ

1 CXI 1 co r^. cxi co coinix>3-co CO LO CD ^}- *vt- CO 1 CD

1 CXI 1 CO LO CO LO t—H CO CXI CO '—

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1 co lo ^ t—H CD LO T—H CD CO CD CO (XJ • drHCO

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CD CU i (D 1 O CO • 4_> CQ i CXJ 1 t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t 1 t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H t-H t—H 1 C 3^^ T—

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1 t—1 1 (XJ CO CO CO rHLDNOtH cd ^ X'. ^d- cxj CO 1

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• ro • *r— (J 03 CD CJ CD i— O CD U co i— O 4-> CD • cu

1 i +-> •r— r— r— ->— *.— . CD r (_) -— -i— >— CD i— C_> d CJ3 i CJ

1 d i d d i— 03 (J dr— D CD d d <— D CD O 1 O I dl-P-r d d 4_> -r- TO d E= -l-> 4-> -i- TD d E CL d i ti +J i TO (_> 4-> D CU (_>+-> •<- D CD 00 (J 4-> -t- D CD LO O 1 Q_

1 u 1 *r— cu cn cu +-) E CU LO c/3 J—> <U D CU LO LO 4-> <U d 4-> 1

i CD I OO i— -i— Cl_ 03 E' r— CU CD 4-3 TO i— CU ca-l-) CD O I

i OO i (UUQ_I2 OLuoazw dtijoazi/) d x: •

1 i CC d> *—

i— i o

27
Table

Ca-5.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

United

States

Average

on i 00 ON CNI VO CD CNJ CO <—t i—

1

i—l r^- ON ON CD

CD i *—l CNJ CO CNJ O'd-VOCO'-l —l ^3" VO "=3" CNJ CO

CD i C\J i

i rH x—H t—1 r—

1

x—H x—H x—H x—H x—

H

x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x-H

CO 1 i"-. on to 00 ON ON ON CO CD T—l CNI VO r-- ON

CD i I—1 CNJ CNJ CNI CD CO LO CNJ <—1 r—1 'vj- VO ^}- CNJ CNJ CD i C\J i

i

X~H T—H X 1 T—

1

x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x-H x—H x—H x—H x-H

i uo lo r-'. co vo vo co ON CD CD CO ON

CD I r-H CNJ CNJ CNJ CD CO LO CNJ i—

1

CO CO LO ^3" CNJ CNJ CD I CNJ •

1 x——I x—H x—H xH

x—H x—H x—H x—H r-H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x-H

VO i co ro lo o VO CNI CO O CD LO ^3" ON CO LO

CD i r-H CNJ CNJ CNJ CO CO LO CNJ r-H CD CO LO CO CO (XI (O 1 CNJ i

i x—H x-H x—H x—

H

x—H x—H x—H x—H x—

1

x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H

LO 1 i—1 CNJ CNJ l'-'- LO x—H f— x-H cn VO CNJ ON ^3" *3" CD i x—l CNJ CNJ x—

H

CD CO ^3- CNJ CO CD CO ”=3- CO CNJ CNJ CD i CNJ i x—H x—1 X—H X—

1

x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H

vo

vo

ON

LO

LOLD

LO

^1" CD

CO

C\J

CD CD CD LO

T—4 C\J C\J t—

I

LD <Ti n CO O'! CO CNJ «vf r—I CO LOCTi^tOVO O CNJ *3" CO i—

I

CO

CNJ "3-

CO i co 1 ON CO CO CD LO VO O LO oo LDVOOININ x—H 1 CD

CD 1 CD I CD x—H x-H x—H CD CNJ *3“ '—1 CD CD CNJ *3“ CNJ i—

1

CNJ i U I CO I 00

•f— i CNJ i x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H 1 CD ,^s x—H -O i i 1 <_> CD C CD •<— CO

-h CD i CNI i CO VO VO >—

i

CNJ LO ^3" CD ^3" CNJ ^3" CD r-^ ON 1 TO • OO

i CD i CD x—H x—H x—H CD CNJ CD r—1 CD CO CNJ CD CNJ t—

1

x-H 1 CHCD

Qj x-H • CD i •1 u i CNJ i x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x-H x—H x-H x-H x—i x—H x—1 1 II * 1 •i- ii i i 1 CD

C_> LO

Q_ LO 1 x-H 1 co cd o ^3" ON ON CNJ 1"-. CD ON ON CO OO 1 •r- ON CNJ ON i CD i CD x—H x—H x—

1

CD x—l CNJ x-H CD CD r-H CNJ CNJ r-H x—H 1 5- ON CD

r— ON i co i clx

i Qj x-H i CNJ • i—H x-H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x-H x—H x-H x-H x—H x—H x-H x-H 1 x—H o i i 1

.

Li— •r— CO

03 i CD i VO CD i—l ON CD LO ^3“ CD LO CDLOLOINVO LO 1 O (DIN

S- CD i CD i CD x—H x—H CD CD x—i CNJ x—i CD CD x—H CNJ x—H x—H x—H 1 >-,CNJ ro >- • CD i TO

CD i CNJ i x—H x—H x—H x—H x—1 r-H x—H x—H x-H x—H x-H X-H x—H x-H x—1 1

,— M— «—

t

X- (4- 1 1 1 S- O

' O O

1 ON 1 LO CO CO CO CNJ i—1 ON ON VO CNJ <—l CO ^ ^ CNJ i 5 ONCNJ O ON i ON i CD CO CD CD CD x—H x-H CD CD CD x—H CNJ x-H x—H x—H 1 £Z CNJ

1 c 1 ON 1 TO -i- • TO -1- 1 x—1 1 x—H x—H x 1 x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—1 x—H x—H x—1 x—H x—1 1 CD C r-H £Z C 1 1 1 +-> C

LlJ O U -i-

•f— 1 CD 1 co vo vo r^. <—l OO VO CO ^3" r-H OO LO CNJ CD CD 1 cd cnr^

TO ON i ON i CD CD CD O OOHOO CD CD x—H x—H x—H x—H 1 <—> CD r-H CD CD i ON I O oo • 4-> CD 1 x—1 1 x—( x—H r—H x—

1

x—H x—H x—1 x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H 1 i— v ^ x—H U 1 1 1 Q_

CD '—> i r\ i CO D- D- VO HLOCDINCD CD LO O CD *3“ OO 1 CNJ O 1 ON 1 CD) CD CD CD CD CD x-H CD CD CD CD x—lx—ID CO 1 x—H L_ 1 ON 1 Q_ • x—H 1

1 1 x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—1 x—H x—1 1

1 x—H

i LO i CNJ CNJ CNJ LO CD CD CD LO CD O CD VO 1 ^ vo i CO

1 ON l CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CO CD CD ' CD

1 ON 1

1 x—H 1

1 1 x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H r-H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—

1

x—H 1

1 x—H

1 LO 1 x—H x—H x—H CNI CO r-H Tj- CD CNJ CD i—1 CNJ *3" CD CD i

l ON 1 CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CO CD CD CD CD CD I CD

1 ON 1

1 x-H 1 x—H x—H x~H x—H x—H x—H x—H x-H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—H x—1 1 x—Hc

o

1 i 4->

i

1 i CL

CD 1 ,

,

1 CD ' E O 1 *r

•r— 1£Z £Z ' ID u_ 1 o Or— Or— O -r- i to

1 CO N *r U1 >1 •>- to F 1 t LO TO 1 <— 4-> CD 03 -l_> (DO CO i

4-> (DO 03 r4—3 O 1 C

c 1 03 i— -1—

>

CD r— •r— 4—3 CD 03 i— *r— +J CD 03 03 LO 1 03 1 •r— U 03 03 O 03 1

O 03 U 03 i

O 4-> 03 I CD

1 4-> r- i

i•i•i—i— 03 1

C_> •i— -i— i— 03 io S_ O 1 CJ

S_ 1 C Lr- co CJ £_r— O 03 £_ £- i— D3 03 O ' •r— o 1 (D 4-> <— L_ L_ 4-> i- TO E +D 4_> X3 i— E Ol l_ i C_

4-3 1 TO CJ 4—

>

=3 CD C_> 4-> •<— =3 03 LO U 4-3 -r- D 03 LO O I Q_ O 1 •i— CD LO CD -t—

>

CD LO LO 4—

>

CD =3 CD LO LO 4—

>

CD £Z 4-> I CD 1 00 . r— Q_ 03 EE , r— CD 03 4-> TO i— -r- CD 03 4-3 03 O 1

»

CD 1 CD LxJ O IZ ollioq: Z OO CbJQOC zz. C/3 c- s: i •r—

1 CO c_> i—

t

i— ' O

28
Table

Ca-5,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

United

States

Average ' ^ 1 LO ^ CO LO CD CD i—1 LO CNJ OJLOCT)CON CO 1 CO i C\J 1 CO LO LO LO r-l OO CO LO CNJ *—1 CO ':Lj‘ CO LO i CO 1 d) 1 > CM 1 11 i—1 t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H CM t—H t—H T 1 t—1 CM CM r-H t-H 11 CNJ 1 CO 1 •O' CNI i—1 CNJ OJ CO LO CO CNJ OJ CO CO OJ LO t—H 1 t—H ' CNJ 1 CO LO LD LO CO C- CNJ LO CNJ I—i CO ^ OJ LO i o ' CD 1 • CM i 11 t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H CM t—H t—H t—H t—H CM t—H t—H t—H 11 CNJ ' CNJ 1 CO <—1 CO CO OJIOOOH COOOlO^ CO 1 OJ ' CNJ 1 CO LO LO LO CO CNJ LO CNJ r—1 OO CO OJ "Lf LO 1 OJ i CD 1 ' CM i 11 t—H t—H t—H t-H t-H t—H CM t—H t—H t—H t—H CM t—H t—H t—H 11 t—H 1 T—1 1 CNJ QJ LO OO OJ CNJ "3- CO CD ao co «—i co LO i LO i CNJ 1 CO *3" LO *3" co i—i lo CNj rLNCOOJ^ LO 1 OJ l CO> 1 • CM i 11 t—H t—H t—H t-H t—H t—H CM t—H t—H t—H t—H CM t—H t—H t—H 11 t—H i CD 1 ON^-LD OJ OJ OJ LO OJ r^. ^ r—i ^ 1 i CNJ 1 CO LO OLOOLOH <—i cnj co LD l OJ i CD 1 • CM i 11 t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H t-H CM t—H t—I

t—H t—H CM t—H t—H t—H I1 t—H i QJ 1 OJ LO CNJ ’=d" oj ^ co co NrHOOCOO t—H 1 CNJ I t-H 1 CNJ ^ LO "3- OLOOLOr-l t-H t—1 OO 'vT LO 1 OJ 1 CO 1 • CM i 11 t—H t—H t—H t-H t—H t—H CM t—H i—H

t—H t—H CM t—H t—H t—H 11 t—H

CO 1 00 1 OO^-OCO oj ^ oj <—i

LO CO CNJ CO CO OJ i OJ

<D 1 r—1 1 CNJ *3" LO

O LO OJ LO i—1 i—1 LO «—1 CO CO i CO

<_> i CD 1 LO — i CNJ 1 t-H t—H t-H t—H t-H t—H t-H t—H t—H t—H t—H CM t—H t—H t—1 1 Qj c j t—H TD 1 1 1 (D CO d CO 1— CO •—' CD • 1 cm r'"-» t—i

OJrH^-OON OLDN43IN i -O • I"- 1 T“—1 1 CNJ *3" "3- O LD OJ r—1

r-H LO

O CO ^ • CrHCO

Qj t-H i CO 1 •I

— o i CNI 1 t-H t—H t—H t—H t-H t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H t—H CM t—H t—H t

i i II T-H

•<- ii 1 1 i QJ

L- (D LO

Q_ i_n. 1 LO 1 LO CO LO QJ OJ OJ CO LO LO LO CNJ <—1 CNJ LO ^ i •r-OJ^r

oj 1 t——1 1 CNJ CO otnojLfH rHLOONCO » d OJ CO

r— OJ i CO 1 O-T 1 Qj t—H 1 CNJ 1 t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H t—H t—H t-H CM t—H t—H t—H 1 t-H =3 1 1 1 1—

Ll_

d • 1— co

ro l LO 1 lo oj co r- OJ LO LO LO LO CO LO OJ LO CNJ I O CD CNJ

d <D 1 t—H 1 CNJ CO ^ CO OLOCO^rH 1—1 LO OJ LO CO >-,ao

CD >- i o 1 O QJ i CNJ 1 r—H t—H t—H t—H

t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H 1 4- r-i >- 4- 1 1 1 S- O i O o 4- • ^ 1 Lf NrHLO OJ <—1 CNI *^J- ^Nr-HLOCO CO i S 0)0 O O) 1 1—1 1 CNJ CO ^ CO OlDCO^H t—1 LO oj lo CO • d oo 1 d i o 1 ~0 -r- • TD -r- 1 CNJ 1 t-H t—H t—H t-H t—H t—H r—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H 1 QJ C r-l d d 1 1 l 4-> d

LU

d

U T-

•r— ' CO 1 CNJ LO OJ CO OJ >

l LD OJ ^ ^3" 'vf' LO CNJ CNJ OO i qj cnr^

-o CJ) 1 t—

H 1 CNJ CO CO CO OUJINCQ-H r-H LO CO LO CO CO 1 ’—> qj r-- QJ QJ 1 CD 1 O CO • 4-> CD 1 CNI 1 r—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H t-H t—H t-H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H 1 J—r' t-H U ' 1 1 1 o_

QJ

*'

D i CNJ 1 »

i 1— •i oj oj cnj

r

— co CO CNJ i—1 OJ CO LO 1 LO o 1 t—1 1 CNJ CO CO CO o ^j- co i—i r—1 LO CO LO CO CO I S- i O 1 Q_ • CM i 11 t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H t—H t-H t—H t-H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t-H 11 t—H 1 t-H 1 CO CNJ LO O OJ 1 . OO LO CNJ CO OJ LO LO OJ CO 1 CNJ l t—1 1 CNJ CO CO CO O LD CO r—1

r—1 1 - LO CNJ CO > 1 CO 1 1 CM i 11 t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H 11 i CO 1 OJ i—l CO OJ^ 'tCOrH cnj r~~. i—i co oo t-H 1 o 1 t—H 1 r-l CO CD CNJ O^OOrH i—i lo cnj CO 1 1 o 1 1 CM i 11 t—H t—H t—H r—H t-H t—H t—H t—H t-H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H 11 do i 1 1 4-> l r— 1 1 Cl i OJ 1 i i t— QJ i E i 3 1 •r— r

•r—

dd i 3 i u_ 1 —. o Or- Or- O r- 1 00 1 1 >*> t/i >^> *1— CO >1 -r- LO •r— r— 1 co 1 TD 1 1— +-> CD 03 4-> O) O IT3 1

+) 0)0 iDi4—>

O ' < i d 1 ID *i— 4—) CD i— -t— 4-> CD <T3 ,— -r- +-> CD ro ro to • 1 fU 1 •<— <_> 03 no CD res — O ra U ro i— O 4-> ro 1 QJ 1 1 4-) *r— r— r— •i— i— ,— ro i— CO >-•«-. rr3 i— C_) c. o « <D 1 d 1 d d 1— 03 U Li- O (D d d 3 ra o • 1 O 1 QJ +-> •!— d d 4-) -r- -O d E •4-) -M -r- TO d E CL d i i -J-> 1 TO <_> 4-> 3 Q) U =3 ra LO CD 4-> •<- 3 «3 40 O ' Cl. I u 1 •r- CD LO CD 4—> E CD LO LO -*-> QJ 3 QJ L/J LO 4—) QJ d -*-> i 1 QJ 1 LO i -I— CL 03 E < <— OJ D+J “O i— •<— CD ra 4—> 03 O 1 r— 1 oo 1 dJUO-12 OUOQCZI/l cujoazi/) d IE 1 •fm 1 1 cc CO •—

1— 1 O

29
Table

Cb-1.

Projected

average

fuel

price

escalation

rates,

exclusive

of

general

price

inflation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type,

(percentage

change

compounded

annually)

Census

Region

1

(Connecticut.

Maine.

Massachusetts.

New

Hampshire.

New

Jersey.

New

York.

Pennsylvania

.

Rhode

Island.

Vermont)

i—I LD

CNJ OM O+JO

(XI CNJ

ON CNJ CD ( r—t f—

I

i—i co lo co rx

CD i—I CNJ >—I CD

rx rx. rx cd cd

CD i—I CNJ <—I i—I v—

4

CXI

CD CD

i—i O CNJ O -t—> CD

CNJ CNJ

CT> CNJ "O' 'cj- CD f—I t—

I

i—

I

I-KD LO IX) IX

CD r—I CNJ <—I CD

r-— r^- r— t—

i

CD i—I CNJ i—I i—

I

CD CO

i—H LD

i—I O <—

I

CD 4—> CD

CNJ CNJ

On CNJ *3” CD r—H t—I , I

i—I CD LD CD fx CD i—I C\J i—I O

O’ IX IX O O CO

CD <—l CNJ CNJ i—I i—

l

CD CD

CD O i—

l

CD 4-> CD

CNJ CNJ

CD CO CO ON CO OO CNJ CNJ ^r

i—I *—I i—I tf CD i—I CNJ CNJ CD

CD CO CO LD CO

CD i—l CNJ CNJ CD

i i—l LD

i CD O <D

i O 4-> CD

i CNJ CNJ

CD ON CD LD CNJ CO CO CO CO CNJ CD Xf CNJ CD

CD CNJ CO '—I CD CD CNJ CO CNJ CD

CD CD ON O CD

ON 4-> CD

i—I CNJ

ix. co cd

CD f—I i—I i—

I

<—I -cf 'Cf CNJ LD

CD CNJ CO r-( O

HLDLDIXCO

CD CNJ CO <—I «—

I

ON

LD 1 CD CD *3" CD IXCOCOLDIX

ON 1 ON 1

1

1

CD CD t—1 CNJ CD (=3 ^ C\J C\J

i

,

1

1 CD 1

| 1

D I • r~ •1

U_ i o o 1 >N 00 >1 •l— 00 TO i i— 4-> CD fD 4-> CD O IO t—

C i co *t— 4—) CD i

r- 4-> CD CO

CO i •<— CJ co 03 CJ CO t

o

• 4—>

•— •

i•i

•1— 1

CO i

(_> C i C C— i

03 CJ £_ i

D CO o I CD 4-> r- l_ 4—) ’f- TD S— EE

+-> i D UP 13 CD CJ 4—) •r— D CO o i CD c/> CD 4-1 CD 00 I/O 4-> CD

CD I (/If— -r- Q_ 03 r r

CD CO 4-> GO i (DUJQD2 OUJQ OX ZZ. GO

i QX c_>

CD ON xj" CD i—

1

i rx

i-H CZ3 -ct CNJ C\J

I I

1

1

1

1

1

co

c

o

• 4-> CL

i

CD i E

•i

C £Z I D Or— O i 00 >> *1— CO • f— f— 1 00

4-) CD O co 1— 4-> O > <c

i— -r- 4-> CD co 03 00 l CO <J co i— O 4—> CO 1 CD

-I— ••— 1— co I CJ C CD 1 CJ

S— S— .— D co O i •r—

4_> 4—> TO C- E Cl £_ i (_ W UpT- 3 co oo O i a. D CD 1/1 C/N 4—> CD C 4—) I TO f— -r- CD co 4-> co O • f— CLJQCCZl/J c 2: i •r— t—t 1— 1 o

30

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(Beginning

of

year

1995

=

1.00)
c

o

I

+-> TO

qjo ^•r- >, l i—H LO i 03 CM 'cr '—l LD LO LD 1 '3-I^NOrH LD

1- i— i CM OW Qj— 03 1 0+30 1 c J t—H t—H t—H CD i—1 CM >—l CD O I—1 CM CM >—

1

t—H TO 40 i C\J CNJ 1 r— 3 o 1 1 TO C co

£- QJ

QJ TO C ^

C c c: QJ "O ’r— CD OJ 5; co i CD CD 1 03 CM ^ to- HVOLOLDN TO- i"^ r—( cd LD

•O e i t—H O CNJ CD <—1 CM CM i—

1

4- C - c> i CD -M CD 1 o 1-H t—H t—H OHCLHO t—H o 3 c o i CM CM 1 o 03 CO 1 1 qj Cl Cn;r- > E 12: •r— O -c

CO CJ cj - 3 IT- ro r— qj 5: -*-> i i—i ld i 03 CM to- to- T—1 LD LO LD TO- r—1 CD LD u cn o 1 t—H O

X c 1 O 4-> O 1 C3 T-H t—H t-H OHCMHO O I—1 CM CM I—

1

t—H QJ TO to 03 i CM CM 1 jz 03 C5 1 1 - o IS) CO c -c

QJ QJ 03 40 +J CT V; s

TO TO O

£- -t-> -oo i CD CD i lo 1^ co COOHO<C L0 CT> t—H t—H CNJ CM C 1 CD O r-H C CD i ODO 1 t——1 t—H t—H t—H O CM CM CM O t-H t—H CNJ CNJ CNJ t-H O CJ o o i CM CM 1 1 •r- £_ 1 1 -t-> QJ -C: TO Q. -o

f— V_/ 03

TO C - CJ • 03 03

CO QJ >— -40 l «-H LO i CO CM CO LD LD 03 1— LD ld co co co LO Qjg. ~C3 O i CD O C3 C -V i ODO i CD CM CM <—

1

OCMCOrHO O CM CO CM O t—H QJ 4_> *-—i 03 i CM CM 1 CJ C3 1 1 •r— r— • i- QJ co -c; Q. 3 *r^ 40 4- O C_ C .O

qj -a - ^ i CD CD 1 CO CM CO -—4 CM 03 CO LD LD 03 03 CO TO- t-H 3 c t-"- 1 03 O CD

4— TO % 1 03 4-5 CD i O CM CNJ t-H CD CO CO l-HI O CD CM CO t-H i—i CM

03 • t-H CNJ 1 QJ C. -V i 1 cn o

TO 4-> C\j 03

£- CJ C- QJ QJ C -O > CO O Qj

TO r- I LO i 03 t-h r^'3-^tCMr^ LD CM CO r"» TO- CM

QJ Ctj I 03

XJ CO Qj - i 03 1 cT^3 t—H t-H CNJ CD CM LD CO CM CD CM LO CM CD CO

Q) 3 Cc -r- 1 t—H 1 4-> L- 1 1 CJ T3 to S

QJ C s o •1“

5 QJ co co O ^ C: co

t- >0 Qj ir~ Q_ -Q OS; 1 1

1

1 QJ 1 i J f—

CD

•

1 3 1 T“ •r— •r— C C

CM i U_ ' O O '

o •— O -r-

• 1 ' >> C/J >"> -i— LO -r— LO •r— r—

J3 i "O 1 r— 4-3 CD 03 4-> QJ O TO 14-> QJO TOi

4-> O

CJ i D 1 TO -r— 4-> CD — -i— 4-> CD TO ,— 1— 4-> CD TO 03 CO

OJ

1 03 I (_> TO TO CJ TO i— O TO CJ TO i— O 4—4 TO

l 1 4-> -i- r— l— r- -r— . TO i CJ -— •>— i— TO i— CJ C- CD

rTM 1 s_ I C S— i— 03 CJ C— i— 3 TO L_ c_ r— 3 TO O -O ' o I CD 4-5 -r- j_ S_ 4-> -r— "D S- E 4-> 4-> -r- TD t_ E CL t_ TO i +j 1 -D U 4-J 3 QJ CJ 4—1 •!— 3 TO LO O 4-> •<- 3 TO LO O

h— ' o I -i— QJ LO CD 4-> E CD LO LO 4-> QJ D CD LO LO 4-> OJ CD 4—

>

I QJ 1 LO i r- Q_ TO E '— •<— CD TO 4-J "O 1— -1— CD TO 4-> TO O l DO i aj ld o 1 ^ OLJQQZl/) CLJQQCZLO L— 21

1 1 DC CJ H—

H

1—

C\J

co

r

co

c

o

3

LOCO <

qj

u

31

Projected

world

oil

price

indices

(Beginning

of

year

1995

=

1.00)
Table

Cb-3.

Projected

average

fuel

price

escalation

rates,

exclusive

of

general

price

inflation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type,

(percentage

change

compounded

annually)

Census

Region

3

(Alabama.

Arkansas.

Delaware.

District

of

Columbia.

Florida.

Georgia.

Kentucky.

Louisiana.

Maryland.

Mississippi.

North

Carolina.

Oklahoma.

South

Carolina.

Tennessee.

Texas.

Virginia.

Nest

Virginia)

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33
Table

Cb-5.

Projected

average

fuel

price

escalation

rates,

exclusive

of

general

price

inflation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type,

(percentage

change

compounded

annually)

United

States

Average

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34
D. Factors for Updating Appliance Label Values in Compliance With the Energy

Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New Federal Residential

Buildings (10 CFR 435)

Compliance with energy conservation performance standards for new Federal residential buildings

requires calculation of a building’s energy costs, including appliance costs. For this purpose, label

values for gas and electric water heaters are given in the Federal micro-computer program,

COSTSAFR, as $176 and $406 per year, respectively, in 1987 dollars, and for refrigerator/freezers,

as $61 per year in 1987 dollars. To adjust 1987 prices to 1994 prices, multiply these 1987 label

values by the factors below.

Table D. Factors for updating appliance label values from 1987-1994 dollars.

Fuel Factor

Gas 1.15

Electricity 1.13

35
PART II: TABLES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LIFE-CYCLE

COST ANALYSIS

Projected average fuel price indices for private sector use (Indices are given

inclusive of four alternative rates of general price inflation)

This section presents in Tables S-l through S-5 projected average fuel price indices for 4 fuels in

the residential sector and 5 fuels in the commercial sector for each of the years from 1995 through

2024. They update tables originally published in the report, Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost

Energy Decisions (NBS SP 709).

As a convenience for the user, the indices include the effect of four alternative, hypothetical rates of general price inflation: 3, 4, 5, and 6%. Selection of these rates is intended in no way to suggest

what actual rates might be. Use of the indices produce price estimates which are in current dollars,

inclusive of general price inflation. Current dollar prices are needed when discounting is performed

with discount rates which include general price inflation.

The indices based on inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6% allow the analyst to perform evaluations

based on the assumption of a positive rate of general price inflation that changes the purchasing

power of the dollar. Performing evaluations in current dollars is sometimes preferred for private

investment decisions, primarily because it facilitates the treatment of taxes.

The indices in Tables S-l through S-5 are derived from the indices reported in Tables Ca-1 through

Ca-5 by means of the following equation:

/

5 = /c x (i + g)

N

,

where IsIcg

N

index found in Tables S-l through S-5;

index found in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5;

annual rate of general price inflation in decimal form; and

number of periods, in this case equal to the year of the index minus 1994.

Example of How to Use the Indices:

Suppose you wish to estimate the present value of energy savings in year 2000, and you expect an

annual inflation rate of 5% per year. Taking natural gas for residential use in Maryland, estimate

present value savings as follows: (1) multiply today’s price for residential natural gas in Maryland

by the projected quantity of energy savings in the year 2000 to estimate savings in the year 2000 in

today’s prices; (2) go to Table S-3, find the year 2000 index for residential natural gas at a 5%

inflation rate (1.44), and multiply the index by the result from (1) to determine savings in the year

2000 in 2000 prices; and (3) discount the savings back to the present, using an SPV factor based on

a discount rate that reflects a 5% inflation rate. To obtain present value savings over the entire study

period, this calculation must be repeated for each year that there are savings, and the results

summed. (UPV* factors are not given for private sector use because of the large number of tables

required to cover potential discount rates that might be used by the analyst.) The BLCC computer

program can perform LCC analyses using any inflation rate and discount rate, in constant or in

36
current (market) dollars. The DISCOUNT program, included with BLCC, can compute UPV*

factors based on DOE energy price escalation rates using any inflation rate and discount rate. (See

page iv for more information on these programs.) Of course the private sector analyst may use the

UPV’ factors provided in Part I, provided the analysis is performed in constant dollars, and the

desired discount rate is either 3.0% or 2.8%.

For further explanation of the use of these indices, see NBS Special Publication 709, appendix B,

Part I.

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the 4 Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4 Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data

which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data

for guidance.

37
Table

S-l.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5.

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region

1

(Connecticut,

Maine,

Massachusetts

.

New

Hampshire,

New

Jersey.

New

York,

Pennsylvania

.

Rhode

Island,

Vermont)

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38
Table

S-l,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3.

4,

5.

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region

1

(Connecticut.

Maine.

Massachusetts.

New

Hampshire.

New

Jersey.

New

York.

Pennsylvania

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Rhode

Island.

Vermont)

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39
Table

S-2.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3.

4.

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region

2

(Illinois,

Indiana,

Iowa.

Kansas,

Michigan,

Minnesota.

Missouri,

Nebraska.

North

Dakota,

Ohio.

South

Dakota.

Wisconsin)

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40
Table

S-2,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3.

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region

2

(Illinois,

Indiana,

Iowa,

Kansas.

Michigan.

Minnesota.

Missouri.

Nebraska,

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Dakota.

Ohio,

South

Dakota.

Wisconsin)

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41
Table

S-3.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region

3

(Alabama,

Arkansas,

Delaware.

District

of

Columbia.

Florida.

Georgia.

Kentucky,

Louisiana.

Maryland.

Mississippi.

North

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Oklahoma.

South

Carolina.

Tennessee.

Texas.

Virginia.

Nest

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43
Table

S-4.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region

4

(Alaska.

Arizona.

California.

Colorado.

Hawaii

.

Idaho.

Montana.

Nevada.

New

Mexico.

Oregon.

Utah.

Washington

.

Wyoming)

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45
Table

S-5.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5.

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

United

States

Average

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46
Table

S-5,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

United

States

Average.

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47