Demographic Turning Points for the 

United States: Population Projections 

for 2020 to 2060 

Population Estimates and Projections

By Jonathan Vespa, David M. Armstrong, 

and Lauren Medina

Current Population Reports

Issued March 2018

P25-1144

INTRODUCTION

The year 2030 marks a demographic 

turning point for the United States. 

Beginning that year, all baby boomers 

will be older than 65. This will expand 

the size of the older population so 

that one in every five Americans is 

projected to be retirement age (Figure 1). Later that decade, by 2035, 

we project that older adults will 

outnumber children for the first 

time in U.S. history. The year 2030 

marks another demographic first for 

the United States. Beginning that 

year, because of population aging, 

immigration is projected to overtake 

natural increase (the excess of births 

over deaths) as the primary driver of 

population growth for the country. 

As the population ages, the number 

of deaths is projected to rise substantially, which will slow the country’s natural growth. As a result, net 

international migration is projected to overtake natural 

increase, even as levels of migration are projected to 

remain relatively flat. These three demographic milestones are expected to make the 2030s a transformative decade for the U.S. population. 

Beyond 2030, the U.S. population is projected to grow 

slowly, to age considerably, and to become more 

racially and ethnically diverse. Despite slowing population growth, particularly after 2030, the U.S. population 

is still expected to grow by 78 million people by 2060, 

crossing the 400-million threshold in 2058. This continued growth sets the United States apart from other 

developed countries, whose populations are expected 

to barely increase or actually contract in coming 

decades. This report looks at these changes and summarizes results from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 

National Population Projections. It focuses on 2030 as 

a demographic turning point for the United States, but 

explores broader changes in the age, race, and ethnic 

composition of the population from 2020 to 2060.

Figure 1.

Projections of the Older Adult Population: 2020 to 2060 

By 2060, nearly one in four Americans is projected to 

be an older adult.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.

49.2

56.1

73.1

80.8

85.7

94.7

Millions of people 65 years and older Percent of population

15

17

21

22

22

2060 23

2050

2040

2030

2020

2016
2 U.S. Census Bureau

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE 2017 

NATIONAL POPULATION 

PROJECTIONS

Population growth:

• The United States is projected 

to grow by 78 million people 

in the next 4 decades, from 

about 326 million to 404 million between 2017 and 2060. 

The population is projected to 

cross the 400-million mark in 

2058. 

• The population is expected 

to grow by an average of 

1.8 million people per year 

between 2017 and 2060. 

• The rate of population growth 

is slowing. Since 2010, the 

population has grown by 

about 2.3 million people per 

year and it is projected to 

continue growing by the same 

annual rate until 2030. However, that rate is expected 

to fall to 1.8 million per year 

between 2030 and 2040, and 

continue falling to 1.5 million 

per year between 2040 and 

2060.

• Beginning in 2030, net international migration is expected 

to overtake natural increase 

as the driver of population 

growth in the United States 

because of population aging. 

That year, the United States 

is projected to add 1 million 

people by natural increase 

(the number of births minus 

deaths) but 1.1 million through 

net international migration. 

Because the number of deaths 

is projected to rise substantially, in 2060 the U.S. population is projected to add about 

500,000 people by natural 

increase, whereas net international migration is expected 

to add more than twice that 

number—1.1 million—to the 

population.

• The population is projected 

to grow more from international migration than natural 

increase in coming decades 

because of population aging. 

As baby boomers age into 

older adulthood, the number 

of deaths is projected to rise 

faster than the number of 

births. As a result, the population will naturally grow very 

slowly, leaving international 

migration to overtake natural 

increase as the leading cause 

of population growth, even as 

projected levels of migration 

remain relatively flat.

Aging:

• America is graying. The 

nation’s 65-and-older population is projected to nearly 

double in size in coming 

decades, from 49 million 

today to 95 million people in 

2060. As a result, the share 

of people 65 and older will 

grow from about 15 percent 

2017 NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS

The results in this report are based on the 2017 National Population Projections, which are the third set of projections based on the 

2010 Census, and cover the period from 2017 to 2060. This series 

updates the prior series released in 2014, which was the first to 

incorporate separate assumptions about the fertility of native- and 

foreign-born women living in the United States, since the latter tend 

to have higher fertility rates. 

The 2017 series extends that work to include separate assumptions 

about the mortality of native- and foreign-born people. For the first 

time, the national population projections will account for the generally lower mortality rates and higher life expectancy of the foreign 

born, which allows us to better project for the effects of international 

migration on the population of the United States. The 2017 series 

also includes projections of the racial and ethnic composition of children and older adults for the first time. 

The 2017 National Population Projections include projections of 

the resident population by several demographic traits, including 

age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and nativity (whether people were 

born in the United States or in another country). They are based on 

the 2010 Census and official population estimates through 2016. 

This series uses the cohort-component method, which projects the 

three components of population change—fertility, mortality, and 

international migration—separately for each birth cohort based on 

historical trends. The base population is advanced each year using 

projected survival rates and net international migration. New birth 

cohorts are added to the population by applying the annual projected age-specific fertility rates to the female population. 

For more information on the data and methodology, see the report 

on the 2017 National Population Projections: Methodology and 

Assumptions <www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj

/technical-documentation/methodology.html>.
U.S. Census Bureau 3

to 17 percent between 2017 

and 2020. By 2060, older 

adults are projected to make 

up nearly one-quarter of the 

population. 

• The number of people 85 

years and older is expected to 

nearly double by 2035 (from 

6.4 million to 11.8 million) and 

nearly triple by 2060 (to 19 

million people).

Race and ethnicity:

• The non-Hispanic White

population is projected to 

shrink over coming decades, 

from 199 million in 2020 to 

179 million people in 2060—

even as the U.S. population 

continues to grow. Their 

decline is driven by falling 

birth rates and rising number 

of deaths over time as the 

non-Hispanic White population 

ages. In comparison, the White 

population, regardless of 

Hispanic origin, is projected to 

grow from 253 million to 275 

million over the same period.

• The population of people 

who are Two or More Races 

is projected to be the fastestgrowing racial or ethnic group 

over the next several decades, 

followed by Asians and 

Hispanics. The causes of their 

growth are different, however. 

For Hispanics and people who 

are Two or More Races, high 

growth rates are largely the 

result of high rates of natural 

increase, given the relatively 

young age structure of these 

populations. For Asians, the 

driving force behind their 

growth is high net international migration.

HOW DO POPULATIONS GROW? 

Components of Population Change

There are three demographic reasons why populations change: 

people are born, they die, and they move into or out of a country.* Together, the number of births, deaths, and net international 

migrants make up the total population change over a period of 

time (Figure 5). Births add to the population while deaths take 

away from it. The combination of these two components is called 

natural increase (or sometimes natural decrease when deaths 

exceed births, which can cause a population to shrink). Migration, 

the third component, can either add to or subtract from a population depending if more people come into the country than leave it. 

Between 2017 and 2060, the U.S. population is projected to grow 

by 78.2 million people. Where do these people come from? Over 

that period, we project a total of 181.4 million births, more than 

four times that of net international migration. However, these 

births are offset by a projected 149.6 million deaths, leaving a natural increase of 31.8 million people. Adding this natural increase 

to the 46.4 million people from net international migration, we 

project a total growth of 78.2 million over the period from 2017

to 2060.

We project fertility and mortality rates separately for foreign-born 

residents, who tend to have higher fertility rates and lower mortality rates than people born in the United States. Over the course 

of their life, foreign-born women have historically had slightly 

more children than native-born women (2.2 births compared with 

1.9 births on average, respectively). Furthermore, birth rates are 

highest among foreign-born women who are not U.S. citizens (78 

births per 1,000 women),** followed by those who are naturalized 

citizens (53 births per 1,000 women). Native women have lower 

birth rates in comparison (51 births per 1,000 women). Between 

2017 and 2060, we project that 80.6 percent of all births will be to 

native mothers, while 19.4 percent of births will be to foreign-born 

mothers. Additionally, we project that 84.9 percent of all deaths in 

this period will be to native residents, while 15.1 percent of deaths 

will be to foreign-born residents. The foreign born typically have 

lower mortality rates and longer life expectancy than the native 

born, factors that affect the projected size and demographic composition of the population.***

* Populations may change for other reasons besides demographic factors, 

through territorial growth and annexing lands, for example. 

** L. Monte and R. Ellis, “Fertility of Women in the United States: June 2012,” 

Current Population Reports, P20-575, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, 2014.

*** I. Akresh and R. Frank, “Health Selection Among New Immigrants,” American 

Journal of Public Health, 98(11), 2008, pp. 2058–2064. See also, K. Markides and 

K. Eschbach, “Hispanic Paradox in Adult Mortality in the United States,” in R. Rogers 

and E. Crimmins, (eds), International Handbook of Adult Mortality, Springer, New 

York, 2011, pp. 227–240; and E. Arias, K. Eschbach, W. Schauman, E. Backlund, and 

P. Sorlie, “The Hispanic Mortality Advantage and Ethnic Misclassification on 

U.S. Death Certificates,” American Journal of Public Health, 100(S1), 2010,

pp. S171–S177.
4 U.S. Census Bureau

The foreign born:

• The nation’s foreign-born population is projected to rise from 

44 million people today to 69 

million in 2060, growing from 

about 14 percent to 17 percent 

of the population. The previous 

historic high was in 1890, when 

almost 15 percent of the population was foreign born.

• The native population is 

expected to add an average of 1.3 million people per 

year, compared with 579,000 

per year for the foreign-born 

population living in the United 

States.

Children:

• By 2020, fewer than onehalf of children in the United 

States are projected to be 

non-Hispanic White (49.8 percent of the projected 73.9 million children under age 18). In 

comparison, about 72 percent 

of children are projected to be 

White, regardless of Hispanic 

origin. 

• The share of children who are 

Two or More Races is projected 

to more than double in coming decades, from 5.3 percent 

today to 11.3 percent in 2060.1

• The racial and ethnic composition of younger cohorts 

is expected to change more 

quickly than for older cohorts. 

In 2060, over one-third of 

children are expected to be 

non-Hispanic White compared with over one-half of 

older adults.

A GRAYING NATION

By 2030, one in five Americans 

will be 65 years and older.

America is graying. Today, some 

49 million people are at least 65 

years old, a number that will rise 

as America’s baby boomers age 

into older adulthood. The country will reach that demographic 

milestone in 2030 when all boomers will be over the age of 65. 

That year, one in five Americans 

1 For more information on race and 

ethnicity in the projections, see the text 

box “Foreseeing the Future? Assumptions 

About Population Projections.” 

is projected to be an older adult 

(Figure 1). Baby boomers leave a 

significant imprint on the country’s population. Between 2016 

and 2060, the population under 

age 18 is projected to grow by 

only 6 million people, compared 

with a growth of 46 million for 

the population 65 years and over 

(Table 1). By 2035, the demographic scales will tip further: 

older adults are expected to outnumber children for the first time 

in U.S. history. The pattern should 

continue in coming decades so 

that by 2060 there will be 95 

million older adults but 80 million children. The country will be 

grayer than ever before. 

Aging boomers and rising life 

expectancy will increase the 

number of elderly as well. The 

population 85 years and older is 

expected to grow 200 percent by 

2060, from 6 million to 19 million 

people (Table 1). The country will 

also add one-half million centenarians over the same period. These 

changes may be new for the 

United States, but the country will 

join many others around the world 

Table 1. 

Population by Age Group: Projections 2020 to 2060

The population is projected to reach 404 million by 2060.

(In millions)

Characteristic Population Change from 

2016 to 2060

2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Number Percent

   Total population. . . . . . . 323.1 332.6 354.8 373.1 388.3 403.7 80.6 24.9

Under 18 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.6 73.9 75.4 76.8 77.9 79.8 6.2 8.4

18 to 44 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116.0 119.2 125.0 126.3 129.3 132.3 16.3 14.1

45 to 64 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.3 83.4 81.3 89.1 95.4 97.0 12.8 15.1

65 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . 49.2 56.1 73.1 80.8 85.7 94.7 45.5 92.3

85 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 6.7 9.1 14.4 18.6 19.0 12.6 197.8

100 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 618.3

Note: The official population estimates for the United States are shown for 2016; the projections use the vintage 2016 population 

estimate for July 1, 2016, as the base population for projecting from 2017 to 2060.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
U.S. Census Bureau 5

with already aging populations. 

By 2060, the United States is 

projected to look much like Japan 

does today, with nearly a quarter of its population aged 65 and 

over.2 When compared globally, 

the United States is projected to 

have a relatively younger population by 2030 than Japan, Canada, 

and many European countries, 

including Germany, Italy, France, 

and Spain.3 These countries will 

face the challenges of an aging 

population earlier than the United 

States.

2 W. He, D. Goodkind, and P. Kowal, 

“An Aging World: 2015,” International 

Population Reports, P95/16-1, U.S. Census 

Bureau, Washington, DC, 2016.

3 J. Ortman, V. Velkoff, and H. Hogan, 

“An Aging Nation: The Older Population 

in the United States,” Current Population 

Reports, P25-1140, U.S. Census Bureau, 

Washington, DC, 2014. See also, W. He, 

D. Goodkind, and P. Kowal, “An Aging 

World: 2015,” International Population 

Reports, P95/16-1, U.S. Census Bureau, 

Washington, DC, 2016.

Older women will continue to 

outnumber older men, but the 

gap is narrowing.

Traditionally, there have been far 

more women than men at older 

ages, because women tend to live 

longer.4 Sex ratios, which reflect 

this gender imbalance, represent 

the number of men for every 100 

women in a specific age group. 

A ratio of 100 indicates a perfect 

balance between the sexes, with 

the same number of men as there 

are women. Currently, sex ratios 

for the 65-plus population are 79, 

while those for the 85-plus population are just 54. In other words, 

these age groups are heavily 

skewed toward women. 

The latest projections calculate 

that these imbalances will shrink 

somewhat in coming decades, 

largely because of rising life expectancy among men. The greatest 

gains will be at the oldest ages. 

4 K. Kochanek, S. Murphy, J. Xu, and 

B. Tejada-Vera, “Deaths: Final Data for 

2014,” National Vital Statistics Reports, 

65(4), National Center for Health Statistics, 

Hyattsville, MD, 2016.

Sex ratios for the 65-plus population are projected to rise from 79 

to 86 between now and 2060, 

while ratios for the 85-plus population will rise from 54 to 65 (Table 

2). The changing sex ratio imbalance has implications for later-life 

support and caregiving since it 

affects the availability of partners 

and the likelihood of forming a new 

relationship among the widowed 

or divorced, especially at older 

ages.5

In coming decades, the United 

States is expected to shift from 

a youth-dependent population 

toward an elderly-dependent 

population.

Dependency ratios are another 

way to look at the changing age 

composition of the population. 

They indicate the dependent 

population’s potential burden on 

the working-age population—in 

other words, how many people 

do the working-age support? Of 

5 C Dollar, “Sex Ratio Effects on Marital 

Formation and Dissolution, 1980–2000,” 

Sociological Inquiry, 85(4), 2015, 

pp. 556–575.

Table 2. 

Population by Age Groups 65 Years and Older and Sex Ratios: Projections 2020 to 2060

Older women are projected to continue outnumbering older men in coming decades.

(In thousands)

Characteristic 2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

65 years and older

 Women. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,451 31,037 40,216 44,503 46,943 51,013

 Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,793 25,014 32,921 36,324 38,731 43,663

  Sex ratio. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 81 82 82 83 86

85 years and older

 Women. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,155 4,283 5,611 8,840 11,315 11,543

 Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,225 2,418 3,463 5,590 7,246 7,477

  Sex ratio. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 56 62 63 64 65

100 years and older

 Women. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 71 102 141 276 422

 Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 21 38 55 110 168

  Sex ratio. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 30 37 39 40 40

Note: Sex ratios represent the number of men for every 100 women in the population. A ratio of 100 means that there is an equal number of 

men and women in a specific age group in the population. Ratios above 100 mean there are more men than women, while ratios below 100 mean 

there are fewer men than women. The official population estimates for the United States are shown for 2016; the projections use the vintage 2016 

population estimate for July 1, 2016, as the base population for projecting from 2017 to 2060.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
6 U.S. Census Bureau

course, changes in the typical 

working age and retirement age 

can change the relevance of these 

ratios. The youth dependency 

ratio, defined here as the number 

of children under 18 for every 100 

adults aged 18 to 64, is projected 

to fall slightly in coming decades 

(Figure 2). We project that by 

2060 there will be just over one 

child for every three working-age 

adults. This is substantially lower 

than the youth dependency ratio 

in 1960, when the United States 

had been experiencing nearly 15 

years of a baby boom. That year, 

there were about two children for 

every three working-age adults. 

The old-age dependency ratio, 

in contrast, is expected to rise 

considerably. In coming decades, 

the United States is projected to 

shift from a youth-dependent 

population toward an elderlydependent one. Between 2010

and 2060, the old-age dependency ratio is projected to

nearly double, rising from 21 to 

41 (Figure 2). In other words, 

there will be 41 people aged 65 

and older for every 100 work-age 

adults between 18 and 64 years. 

Another way of looking at this is, 

in 2020, there are projected to be 

about three-and-a-half workingage adults for every older person 

eligible for Social Security. By 

2060, that number is expected 

to fall to two-and-a-half workingage adults for every older person eligible for Social Security. 

Although total dependency ratios 

are projected to be no higher than 

they were in 1960, the rise of oldage dependency ratios will affect 

Social Security beneficiaries.6

GROWING RACIAL AND 

ETHNIC PLURALISM

Non-Hispanic Whites are 

projected to remain the single 

largest race or ethnic group for 

the next 40 years.

As the population ages and grows 

more slowly in coming decades, 

the United States is projected to 

continue becoming a more racially 

and ethnically pluralistic society. 

This is not a new pattern. In 1900, 

roughly one in eight people in the 

United States were a race other 

than White. That figure began to 

rise in 1970.7 By 1990, nearly one 

in five people were a race other 

than White and over the next 

decade, that proportion continued to rise to one in four people.8

In coming decades, the racial 

composition of the population is 

projected to change even further, 

so one in three Americans—32 

percent of the population—is 

projected to be a race other than 

White by 2060 (Table 3).

The fastest-growing racial or 

ethnic group in the United States 

is people who are Two or More 

Races, who are projected to grow 

some 200 percent by 2060. The 

next fastest is the Asian population, which is projected to double, 

followed by Hispanics whose 

6 G. Reznik, D. Shoffner, and D. Weaver, 

“Coping With the Demographic Challenge: 

Fewer Children and Living Longer,” 

Social Security Bulletin, 66(4), Social 

Security Administration, Washington, DC, 

2005/2006. 7 F. Hobbs and N. Stoops, “Demographic 

Trends in the 20th Century,” Census 2000 

Special Reports, CENSR-4, U.S. Census 

Bureau, Washington, DC, 2002. 8 Ibid.

Figure 2.

Dependency Ratios for the Population: 1940 to 2010,

Projected Ratios 2020 to 2060

By 2020, there are projected to be two dependents for every 

three working-age adults.

Youth

dependency

Note: Dependency ratios are a measure of potential burden on the working-age population. 

Youth dependency ratio = (population under 18 / population aged 18 to 64) * 100. 

Old age dependency ratio = (population aged 65 and older / population aged 18 to 64) * 100.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections, 1940–2012 Population 

Estimates.

49

51

65

61

46

42

41

38

36

37

36

35

2060 35

2050

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

1940

Old-age

dependency

11

13

17

17

19

20

20

21

28

35

38

38

41

Total

dependency

60

64

82

78

65

62

61

59

64

72

74

73

76
U.S. Census Bureau 7

population will nearly double 

within the next 4 decades.9 In 

contrast, the only group projected 

to shrink is the non-Hispanic 

White population. Between 2016 

and 2060, the non-Hispanic White 

population is expected to contract 

by 19 million people, from 198 

million to 179 million, even as the 

total U.S. population grows

9 For more information on race and 

ethnicity in the projections, see the text box 

“Foreseeing the Future: Assumptions About 

Population Projections.”

(Table 3). The decline is driven 

largely by falling birth rates and 

a rising number of deaths over 

time as the non-Hispanic White 

population ages. The crude birth 

rate for non-Hispanic Whites is 

projected to be nine per 1,000 

people by 2030, compared with 

a crude death rate of 12 per 1,000 

people.10 In other words, more 

10 “Growth Rates and Birth, Death, 

and International Migration Rates: 

Main Projections Series for the United 

States, 2017–2060,” U.S. Census Bureau, 

Washington, DC, 2018.

non-Hispanic Whites are projected to die than will be born. 

Nonetheless, non-Hispanic Whites 

are projected to remain the single 

largest race group throughout 

the next 40 years. Beginning in 

2045, however, they are no longer 

projected to make up the majority 

of the U.S. population.

Table 3. 

Population by Race and Ethnicity: Projections 2030 to 2060 

The non-Hispanic White population is projected to shrink by 19 million people by 2060.

(In thousands)

Characteristics

Population Change from 

2016 2030 2060 2016 to 2060

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

   Total population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323,128 100.0 354,840 100.0 403,697 100.0 80,569 24.9

One race

 White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248,503 76.9 263,302 74.2 274,576 68.0 26,073 10.5

  Non-Hispanic White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197,970 61.3 197,888 55.8 178,884 44.3 –19,086 –9.6

 Black or African American. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43,001 13.3 48,934 13.8 60,471 15.0 17,470 40.6

 American Indian and Alaska Native. . . . . . . 4,055 1.3 4,657 1.3 5,567 1.4 1,512 37.3

 Asian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,319 5.7 24,382 6.9 36,778 9.1 18,459 100.8

 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific 

  Islander. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 771 0.2 912 0.3 1,124 0.3 353 45.8

Two or More Races. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,480 2.6 12,652 3.6 25,181 6.2 16,701 196.9

Hispanic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57,470 17.8 74,751 21.1 111,022 27.5 53,552 93.2

Native-born population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279,283 100.0 301,057 100.0 334,364 100.0 55,081 19.7

One race

 White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222,942 79.8 232,488 77.2 236,517 70.7 13,575 6.1

  Non-Hispanic White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189,896 68.0 188,066 62.5 165,685 49.6 –24,211 –12.7

 Black or African American. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,345 13.7 42,939 14.3 50,977 15.2 12,632 32.9

 American Indian and Alaska Native. . . . . . . 3,465 1.2 4,030 1.3 4,958 1.5 1,493 43.1

 Asian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,377 2.3 9,361 3.1 17,253 5.2 10,876 170.6

 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific

  Islander. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 576 0.2 685 0.2 865 0.3 289 50.2

Two or More Races. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,578 2.7 11,555 3.8 23,795 7.1 16,217 214.0

Hispanic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37,819 13.5 51,410 17.1 83,777 25.1 45,958 121.5

Foreign-born population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43,845 100.0 53,783 100.0 69,333 100.0 25,488 58.1

One race

 White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25,560 58.3 30,815 57.3 38,059 54.9 12,499 48.9

  Non-Hispanic White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,073 18.4 9,823 18.3 13,198 19.0 5,125 63.5

 Black or African American. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,656 10.6 5,996 11.1 9,494 13.7 4,838 103.9

 American Indian and Alaska Native. . . . . . . 590 1.3 627 1.2 609 0.9 19 3.2

 Asian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,942 27.2 15,021 27.9 19,525 28.2 7,583 63.5

 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific

  Islander. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 0.4 227 0.4 259 0.4 64 32.8

Two or More Races. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 902 2.1 1,097 2.0 1,386 2.0 484 53.7

Hispanic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,652 44.8 23,341 43.4 27,246 39.3 7,594 38.6

Note: The official population estimates for the United States are shown for 2016; the projections use the vintage 2016 population estimate for 

July 1, 2016, as the base population for projecting from 2017 to 2060. Percentages will not add to 100 because Hispanics may be any race. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
8 U.S. Census Bureau

By 2020, fewer than one-half 

of children—49.8 percent—are 

projected to be non-Hispanic 

White.

The changing racial makeup of 

the United States is most visible among children. By 2020, a 

majority of children are projected 

to be a race other than nonHispanic White (Table 4). That 

figure is expected to rise in coming decades, so about two in 

three children are projected to be 

a race other than non-Hispanic 

White by 2060 (Figure 3). 

Three groups drive this change. 

The group of children who are 

Two or More Races is projected 

to more than double between 

today and 2060, from 5 percent 

to 11 percent of all children under 

18 years. Over the same period, 

the share of Hispanic children 

is projected to rise from onequarter to nearly one-third, while 

the share of Asian children will 

rise significantly as well (Table 4). 

These changes mirror a broader 

transition in the United States to a 

more pluralistic population. What 

sets younger cohorts apart is that 

their racial and ethnic makeup 

has been changing more quickly 

than for older cohorts. By 2060, 

over one-half of older adults are 

projected to be non-Hispanic 

White, compared with one-third 

of children.11 Continuing a trend 

that has existed for many years, 

younger generations are projected to become more racially 

and ethnically diverse than older 

generations.

A NATION OF IMMIGRANTS

About 44 million people in the 

United States—around one in 

11 “Race and Hispanic Origin by Selected 

Age Groups: Main Projections Series for 

the United States, 2017–2060,” U.S. Census 

Bureau, Washington, DC, 2018.

Table 4. 

Percentage of Children by Race and Ethnicity: Projections 2020 to 2060

By 2060, the share of children who are Two or More Races is projected to more than double.

Characteristic 2016 2020 2030 2060

   Total children under 18 

    (in thousands). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73,642 73,882 75,391 79,788

One race. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

 White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72.5 71.7 69.4 62.9

  Non-Hispanic White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51.1 49.8 46.9 36.5

 Black or African American. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 15.2 15.5 16.0

 American Indian and Alaska Native. . . . . . . 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4

 Asian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 5.5 6.3 8.1

 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific 

  Islander. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Two or More Races. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.8 7.1 11.3

Hispanic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 25.5 26.5 32.0

Note: The official population estimates for the United States are shown for 2016; the projections use the vintage 2016 population estimate for 

July 1, 2016, as the base population for projecting from 2017 to 2060. Percentages will not add to 100 because Hispanics may be any race. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.

Figure 3.

Racial and Ethnic Composition of Children Under Age 18

The share of children who are non-Hispanic White is 

projected to fall from one-half to about one-third by 2060.

(In percent) 

* The other race group includes children who are American Indian and Alaska Native, 

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, and Two or More Races.

Note: Hispanic is considered an ethnicity, not a race. The percentages do not add to 

100 because Hispanics may be any race.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.

Non-Hispanic White

2016 2060

51.1

7.2

5.2

36.5

32.0

24.9

15.1

13.0

8.1

16.0

Hispanic Black All others* Asian
U.S. Census Bureau 9

eight—were born in another country. However, most residents have 

immigration in their family history. 

Some 36 million Americans must

look to their parents to find it, 

while 235 million—or about 75 

percent of Americans—must look 

back to their grandparents’ generation or earlier.12 Although it is 

easy to think of the foreign born 

as a single population, they are 

made up of people from different 

countries and backgrounds. Of

the 44 million foreign born living 

in the United States today, just 

under one-half are Hispanic

12 E. Trevelyan, C. Gambino, T. Gryn,

L. Larsen, Y. Acosta, E. Grieco, D. Harris, 

and N. Walters, “Characteristics of the

U.S. Population by Generational Status: 

2013,” Current Population Survey Reports, 

P23-214, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, 

DC, 2016.

(Table 3), consistent with

estimates from the American 

Community Survey which show 

that the majority of foreign

born in the United States came 

from Latin America and the 

Caribbean.13 About one-quarter 

of today’s foreign born are Asian, 

and a little under one-fifth are 

non-Hispanic White (Table 3). 

These numbers reflect the current total or stock of foreign 

born living in the United States. 

The largest sending regions of 

migrants have been changing 

recently, however. Of those who 

13 E. Grieco, Y. Acosta, G. de la Cruz, C. 

Gambino, T. Gryn, L. Larsen, E. Trevelyan, 

and N. Walters, “The Foreign-Born 

Population in the United States: 2010,” 

American Community Survey Reports, 

ACS-19, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, 

DC, 2012.

arrived before 2000, most came 

from Latin American countries, 

followed by Asian countries. Since 

2010, that trend has reversed 

with Asia replacing Latin America 

as the largest sending region of 

migrants to the United States.14

By 2028, the foreign-born share 

of the U.S. population is projected 

to be higher than any time since 

1850.

If past trends continue, the

number of immigrants living in

the United States is projected to 

grow by 25 million people, rising from 44 million today to a 

14 “Selected Characteristics of the 

Foreign-Born Population by Period of Entry 

to the United States,” 2012–2016 American 

Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Table 

S0502, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, 

DC, 2017. 

Figure 4.

Foreign-Born People Living in the United States: 1850 to 2010, Projected 2020 to 2060

By 2028, the foreign-born share of the U.S. population is projected to be higher than at 

any time since 1850.

Projection

Number of foreign born 

(in millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1850–2000 Decennial Censuses, American Community Survey 2010, 2017 National Population Projections 

for 2020–2060.

1850 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

14.8

14.4

13.3

13.2

9.7

2.2 4.1 5.6 6.7

9.2 10.3

13.5 13.9 14.2

11.6 10.3 9.7 9.6

14.1

19.8

31.1

40.0

46.7

53.8

60.2

65.3

69.3

17.2

16.8

16.1

15.2

14.0

12.9

11.1

7.9

6.2

4.7 5.4

6.9

8.8

11.6

13.2

14.7

13.6

Historic low

Historic high

Percent foreign born
10 U.S. Census Bureau

projected 69 million by 2060 

(Figure 4). Not until 2028 will the 

foreign born living in the United 

States reach a historic high, however. That year, 14.9 percent of 

the U.S. population is projected to 

have been born in another country, higher than any time since 

1850.15 Just 2 years later, by 2030, 

net international migration is 

expected to become the primary 

driver of population growth in the 

United States—another demographic milestone for the country 

(Figure 6).

15 “Projected Size of the Native- and 

Foreign-Born Population: Main Projections 

Series for the United Sates, 2017–2060,” 

U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, 2018.

Although the size of the foreignborn population is projected to 

rise, the next few decades will 

actually look like an earlier period 

in U.S. history. From the late 19th 

to early 20th century, the country 

experienced high levels of immigration, a period when roughly 

one in seven people in the United 

States were born in another 

country (Figure 4). After the First 

World War, the proportion of 

foreign born began declining until 

it reached a historic low in 1970, 

when just one in 20 residents were 

foreign born.16 Since 1970, the size 

of the foreign-born population 

16 The U-shaped pattern in the foreignborn population (Figure 4) is related to the 

Immigration Act of 1924 and the Immigration 

and Nationality Act of 1965. The 1924 act 

coincided with a decades-long decline in the 

number of immigrants to the United States, 

evident in the figure by the falling percentage of foreign born in the U.S. population. 

This pattern reversed after the 1965 act, 

which aimed to abolish immigration quotas 

based on national origin and favored instead 

family reunification and, to some extent, 

specialized skills. Following the 1965 act, 

immigration began rising and the origin of 

foreign born in the United States changed. 

See D. Massey and K. Pren, “Unintended 

Consequences of U.S. Immigration Policy: 

Explaining the Post-1965 Surge from Latin 

America,” Population and Development 

Review, 38(1), 2012, pp. 1–29. See also, 

A. Timmer and J. Williamson, “Immigration 

Policy Prior to the 1930s: Labor Markets, 

Policy Interactions, and Globalization 

Backlash,” Population and Development 

Review, 24(4), 1998, pp. 739–771.

Figure 5.

Projected Population Change and Births, Deaths, and Net International Migration: 2017 to 2060

By 2060, the U.S. population is projected to grow by 78 million people.

(In millions)

Total population change, Births Deaths Net international migration

2017 to 2060

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections. 

181.4

149.6

Natural Increase

35.1 to foreign-born 

mothers 

(19.4% of births)

146.3 to 

native-born 

mothers 

(80.6% of births) 

127.0 native-born 

(84.9% of deaths)

22.6 foreign-born 

(15.1% of deaths)

46.4

78.2
U.S. Census Bureau 11

has been rising and, if past trends 

continue, would total more than 

69 million by 2060, or about one 

in six people living in the United 

States. 

An increase in the foreign born 

would alter the age structure of 

the U.S. population, as well as 

its racial and ethnic composition 

(discussed earlier in the report). 

Today, about 78 percent of the 

foreign-born population is of 

working age, between 18 and 

64 years, compared with just 59 

percent of the native born. Both 

of these figures are projected to 

fall within the next decade, but 

the gap will remain almost as 

large (falling to 72 percent and 56 

percent, respectively, by 2030). 

This gap is important because 

the foreign born are more likely 

to be in the labor force. What 

is more, young first generation immigrants are more likely 

to have full-time jobs than their 

native peers (although that does 

not necessarily mean those jobs 

are better paying).17 Nonetheless, 

the native population is younger 

overall and, in coming decades, a 

higher percentage of the foreign 

born are projected to be 65 and 

17 E. Trevelyan, C. Gambino, T. Gryn, 

L. Larsen, Y. Acosta, E. Grieco, D. Harris, 

and N. Walters, “Characteristics of the 

U.S. Population by Generational Status: 

2013,” Current Population Survey Reports, 

P23-214, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, 

DC, 2016. See also, “Foreign-Born Workers: 

Labor Force Characteristics—2016,” Bureau 

of Labor Statistics News Release, USDL-17-

0618, Department of Labor, Washington, DC, 

2016; and E. Grieco, Y. Acosta, G. de la Cruz, 

C. Gambino, T. Gryn, L. Larsen, E. Trevelyan,

and N. Walters, “The Foreign-Born 

Population in the United States: 2010,” 

American Community Survey Reports, 

ACS-19, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, 

DC, 2012; and “Selected Characteristics of 

the Native and Foreign-Born Populations,” 

2016 American Community Survey 1-Year 

Estimates, Table S0501, U.S. Census Bureau, 

Washington, DC, 2016.

over.18 Thus a change in the size of 

the working-age population could 

have important consequences for 

the population overall.

Of course, these projections will 

hold true only if all other past 

trends continue and all assumptions about births, deaths, and 

international migration hold true. 

Migration trends are especially 

sensitive to policy and economic 

circumstances in both the United 

18 “Projected Native Population by 

Selected Ages: Main Projections Series for 

the United States, 2017–2060,” U.S. Census 

Bureau, Washington, DC, 2018. See also, 

“Projected Foreign-Born Population by 

Selected Ages: Main Projections Series for 

the United States, 2017–2060,” U.S. Census 

Bureau, Washington, DC, 2018.

States and migrants’ country of 

origin. The projections in this 

report are based on historical 

trends in international migration 

and do not attempt to account for 

future policy or economic cycles.

PROJECTED TRENDS IN 

POPULATION SIZE AND 

GROWTH

Growing, but more slowly.

Over the next four decades the 

U.S. population is projected to 

grow by 78 million people, from 

about 326 million today to 404 

million people by 2060 (Figure 

5). By 2058, the U.S. population is 

expected to cross the 400-million 

2060

2050

2040

2030

2020

2017

Figure 6.

Projected Population Change From Natural Increase 

and Net International Migration: 2017 to 2060

Starting in 2030, net international migration is projected 

to become the largest driver of population growth in the 

United States.

* Natural increase is the number of people born into the population after subtracting 

 the number of people who have died (i.e., births minus deaths).

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.

Natural increase*

(In millions)

1.4 1.0

1.3 1.0

1.0 1.1

0.5 1.1

0.4 1.1

0.5 1.1

Net international immigration
12 U.S. Census Bureau

threshold. Although the total population is expected to gradually 

increase over time, the pace of 

growth is slowing. Since 2010, the 

population has grown by an average of 2.3 million people per year 

and it is projected to continue 

growing by the same amount 

until 2030, when the population 

is expected to reach about 355 

million people (Table 1). However, 

that rate is projected to fall to an 

average of 1.8 million per year in 

the following decade, between 

2030 and 2040. In addition, it is 

projected to continue falling to 

an annual rate of about 1.5 million 

people between 2040 and 2060.19

The slowing growth in the 

U.S. population comes from the 

confluence of three factors: an 

aging population, falling fertility rates (fewer people will be 

born), and lower rates of net 

international migration in coming 

decades. 

A projected annual growth of 0.7 

percent during the 2020s may 

seem small. Yet this change actually sets the United States apart 

from other developed countries, 

some of which are experiencing 

little to no population growth. For 

example, Japan’s population is 

actually declining while those of 

Russia and other Eastern European 

countries are projected to contract 

within the decade.20 These countries face a combination of lower 

fertility rates, older age structures, 

and lower international migration 

than the United States. The projected 0.7 percent annual growth 

for the United States looks more 

robust in comparison.

Starting in 2030, net international 

migration is projected to become 

the largest driver of population 

growth.

The population is projected to 

continue growing over the next 40 

years, but the force behind that 

growth is expected to change. 

Between 2017 and 2060, the 

population is projected to grow 

by 78 million people, more than 

half of which is expected to come 

from international migration. 

Yet the level of net international 

migration is projected to remain 

19 In terms of annual percent change, 

these numbers correspond to population growth of about 0.7 percent per year 

until 2030, 0.5 percent per year between 

2030 and 2040, and 0.4 percent per year 

between 2040 and 2060. 20 U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 International 

Data Base.

FORESEEING THE FUTURE? ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT 

POPULATION PROJECTIONS 

Projections can only illustrate potential trajectories of population change. The projections in this report will hold true only if 

all assumptions about future fertility, mortality, and international 

migration hold true as well. Because these assumptions of demographic change are based on historical trends in births, deaths, and 

international migration, the projections do not predict any potential impact of future policy decisions or exceptional historic events, 

such as natural disasters. This report discusses what the population 

may look like in coming decades. Such statements are always conditional on the underlying assumptions about the components of 

population change. The projections are accurate insofar as future 

trends in fertility, mortality, and migration mirror historical trends 

in these components of population change. 

Where this report discusses race, it generally refers to single race 

groups (i.e., people who reported being only White or only Asian). 

Two or More Races refers to people who reported at least two 

race groups (e.g., White and Asian), while the Hispanic population includes all Hispanics, regardless of their race. Projecting 

race and ethnicity is challenging. The number of births, deaths, 

and net international migrants affect the size of each race and 

ethnic group, but so do changes in self-identification and selfreporting. For example, there was considerable change in the race 

response of individuals who reported American Indian or Alaska 

Native between the 2000 Census and the 2010 Census. Moreover, 

the increase in the number of people who reported being both 

White and Black between the censuses was largely the result of 

people who reported both races in 2010, when they had previously 

reported only one race in 2000.* The projections do not account 

for social changes in self-identification or self-reporting of race and 

ethnicity. 

 * For more information, see H. Hogan, J. Ortman, and S. Colby, “Projecting 

Diversity: The Methods, Results, Assumptions, and Limitations of the U.S. Census 

Bureau’s Population Projections,” West Virginia Law Review, 117, 2015, pp. 1047–1079. 

See also, K. Humes and H. Hogan, “Do Current Race and Ethnicity Concepts Reflect 

a Changing America?” In R. Bangs and L. Davis (eds), Race and Social Problems, 

Springer, New York, 2015, pp. 15–38.
U.S. Census Bureau 13

relatively flat in coming decades 

(Figure 6), while rates of migration 

are projected to fall slightly. And, 

until 2030, natural increase will be 

the leading driver of population 

growth. Beginning in 2030, however, the United States is projected 

to experience a significant demographic transition: net international 

migration is expected to overtake 

natural increase as the primary 

driver of population growth

(Figure 6). That trend is projected 

to continue so that in 2060, the 

U.S. population will grow by 1.6 

million people, two-thirds of which 

is projected to come from net 

international migration (1.1 million) and one-third from natural 

increase (about 500,000). 

Why is international migration 

projected to become the leading cause of population growth 

in coming decades? The reason 

is population aging. The number 

of births is projected to rise only 

slightly in coming decades. But 

the number of deaths is projected 

to rise much faster, especially 

between 2020 and 2050, as baby 

boomers age into later life and 

the size of the older population 

expands. As the number of deaths 

climbs toward the number of 

births each year, the population 

will naturally grow very slowly. In 

2020, for example, we are projecting 4.1 million births and 2.8 million 

deaths (a natural increase of 1.3 

million people). In 2060, we are 

projecting 4.4 million births but 

3.9 million deaths—in other words, 

only a few hundred-thousand 

more births than in 2020, but 1.1 

million more deaths.21 Even though 

21 “Projected Births, Deaths, and Net

International Migration: Main Projections

Series for the United States, 2017–

2060,”U.S. Census Bureau, Washington,

DC, 2018.

levels of international migration 

are projected to remain relatively 

flat, this sharp rise in deaths is projected to allow international migration to overtake natural increase 

as the leading cause of population 

growth beginning in 2030.

SUMMARY

The year 2030 marks a demographic turning point for the 

United States. Beginning that year 

all baby boomers will be older 

than 65 and, within the decade, 

older adults (65 years and older) 

are projected to outnumber children (under 18 years) for the first 

time in U.S. history. While the population ages, the United States will 

experience another demographic 

milestone. By 2030, immigration is 

projected to become the primary 

driver of population growth: more 

people are projected to be added 

to the population through net 

international migration than from 

natural increase. The projected 

shift to net international immigration as the primary driver of population growth is the result of falling 

fertility rates and the rising number of deaths in an aging population, not because of a projected 

increase in international migration. 

The rapid aging of the population 

between 2020 and 2040 will have 

a substantial demographic impact 

on the country. 

Despite slowing growth, the 

U.S. population is still projected 

to grow. This continued growth 

sets the United States apart from 

some of the other developed 

countries whose populations 

are expected to barely increase 

or contract over the next few 

decades. By the next census, 

332.6 million people are projected 

to be living in the United States. 

By 2058, the U.S. population is 

expected to cross the 400-million 

threshold, with a projected population of 400.5 million people. By 

that time the United States will 

be an older, more racially and 

ethnically pluralistic society. NonHispanic Whites are projected to 

remain the single largest race or 

ethnic group throughout the next 

40 years. Beginning in 2045, they 

are no longer projected to make 

up the majority of the U.S. population. If the assumptions underlying these projections hold, then 

the U.S. population is projected to 

experience several demographic 

milestones by 2060, as the population grows slowly, ages considerably, and becomes more racially 

and ethnically pluralistic. 

DATA SOURCES AND 

METHODOLOGY

The projections in this report are 

the third series of national population projections based on the 2010 

Census. They project the total 

U.S. population as of July 1 for the 

years 2017 to 2060, using official 

population estimates for 2016 as 

the base population. When both 

population estimates and projections are available, estimates are 

the preferred data. The universe 

is the resident population of the 

United States (50 states and the 

District of Columbia). The 2017 

National Population Projections 

include projections of the resident 

population by several demographic traits, including age, sex, 

race, Hispanic origin, and nativity. 

The projections were produced 

using a cohort-component method 

beginning with an estimated base 

population for July 1, 2016. In 

this method, the components of 

population change are projected 
14 U.S. Census Bureau

separately for each birth cohort 

(persons born in a given year) 

based on past trends. For each 

year from 2017 to 2060, the population is advanced 1 year of age 

using the projected age-specific 

survival rates and levels of net 

international migration for that 

year. A new birth cohort is added 

to the population by applying 

the projected age-specific fertility rates to the female population. 

Births, adjusted for infant mortality and net international migration, 

form the new population under 1 

year of age. In its simplest form, 

the cohort component method is 

expressed as:

 Pt =Pt-1+ Bt-1,t– Dt-1,t+ Mt-1,t 

where:

Pt = population at time t,

Pt-1 = population at time t-1,

Bt-1,t = births in the interval from 

time t-1 to time t,

Dt-1,t = deaths in the interval from 

time t-1 to time t, and 

Mt-1,t = net migration in the interval 

from time t-1 to time t.

Projections produced through the 

cohort-component method are 

driven by assumptions regarding each of the components of 

change. In order to project a 

population forward in this manner, 

separate projections of fertility, 

mortality, and net international 

migration are required to serve as 

inputs into the cohort-component 

model, as is an original base population to project forward.

Historical mortality trends were 

calculated using the National 

Center for Health Statistics’ 

data on deaths and the Census 

Bureau’s population estimates for 

1989 to 2015. Fertility trends were 

calculated using the National 

Center for Health Statistics’ birth 

data and the Census Bureau’s 

estimates of the female population. The time series included data 

from 1990 to 2016. Trends in net 

international migration were primarily based on decennial census 

and American Community Survey 

estimates on foreign-born immigration for the period from 1980 

to 2016.

For more information on the data 

and methodology, see the report 

on 2017 National Population 

Projections: Methodology and 

Assumptions <www.census.gov

/programs-surveys/popproj

/technical-documentation

/methodology.html>.

DATA ACCURACY

The accuracy of the projections 

depend on the accuracy and validity of several data sources. First, 

the projections are based on the 

2010 Census, which may contain 

nonsampling error because of 

errors in enumeration, such as 

undercounting or overcounting 

different demographic groups. 

Nonsampling error may be a byproduct of how a questionnaire is 

designed, how respondents interpret questions, how able or willing 

respondents are to provide correct 

answers, and how accurately the 

answers are coded and classified. 

Technical documentation for the 

2010 Census is available at 

<www.census.gov/prod/cen2010

/doc/sf1.pdf>. Second, the projections use administrative records 
U.S. Census Bureau 15

from the National Center for Health 

Statistics on births and deaths. 

Reporting error on the birth or 

death certificates would affect the 

population projections because 

this data is used to calculate fertility rates and mortality rates for the 

population. Third, the projections 

use the American Community 

Survey to assign nativity to the 

base population and calculate 

immigration and emigration rates 

of the foreign born. Statistics that 

come from surveys are subject to 

nonsampling error, noted above, as 

well as sampling error. The latter 

occurs because surveys measure 

the characteristics of a sample 

of people, instead of those of 

the entire population (as from a 

census). Sample-based estimates 

vary depending on the particular 

sample that is selected from the 

population, but all survey-based 

estimates attempt to approximate the actual figures from the 

population. Measures of the size 

of sampling error reflect variation 

in the estimates over all possible 

samples that could have been 

selected from the population using 

the same sampling, data collection, 

and processing methods. Technical 

documentation for the American 

Community Survey is available at 

<www.census.gov/programs

-surveys/acs/methodology.html>.

Last, the projections did not 

attempt to predict future changes 

in policy or other factors, such 

as natural disasters or changing 

economic cycles, which might 

influence the population components and their magnitude of 

change. The projections are accurate only insofar as the assumptions about fertility, mortality, and 

net international migration hold 

true, assumptions that are based 

on historical trends. If the future 

trends or levels in fertility, mortality, or international migration 

differ radically from the historical 

patterns, then the population projections will be less accurate.

SUGGESTED CITATION

Vespa, Jonathan, David M. 

Armstrong, and Lauren Medina, 

“Demographic Turning Points for 

the United States: Population 

Projections for 2020 to 2060,” 

Current Population Reports, 

P25-1144, U.S. Census Bureau, 

Washington, DC, 2018.

CONTACTS

Jonathan Vespa

<jonathan.vespa@census.gov>

301-763-7283

David M. Armstrong

<david.m.armstrong@census.gov>

301-763-5671

Lauren Medina

<lauren.medina@census.gov>

301-763-5062