p. 1 

# OAR Box 

# 1112 Prepped byRyan Dugan



# Document

Number: 

# 42 ) II-C-5 C Docket Number: 

# A-83-2 2

Printed 4/16/2008 9:12:07AM

Sheet 42 of 97P. 2



## ESTIMATION

O F DAILYLEA

D UPTAK E I

N CHILDREN

ANDRESULTING END-OF-MONT HBLOO DLEA DLEVEL S 

# 2 Z > C - 

# S' C 

# OU T

by 

## Te d Johnso n an d Ro yPau l PE I Associates , Inc . 50 5 Sout hDuk e Street , Suit e 50 3 Durham , Nort hCarolin a 27701-319 6
Contrac t No . 68-02-430 9 Wor k Assignmen t No . 2 2 PN3659-2 2
Richar d B . Atherton , Projec t Office r Jef f Cohen , Wor k Assignmen t Manage r
STRATEGIE S AN D AI R STANDARD S DIVISIO N U.S . ENVIRONMENTA L PROTECTIO NAGENC Y RESEARC H TRIANGL E PARK , NORT H CAROLINA2771 1

Februar y198 6P. 3



## DISCLAIME R Thi s repor t wa s prepare db y PE I Associates , Inc. , Cincinnati , Ohio , unde r Contrac t No . 68-02-4309 , Wor kAssignmen t No . 22 . I t ha s bee nreviewe d b y th e Strategie s andAi r Standard s Divisio no f th e Offic e o f Ai r Qualit y Plannin g andStandards, , U.S . Environmenta l ProtectionAgenc y an dapprove dfo r publication . Approva l doe s no t signif y tha t th e content s necessaril y reflec t th e view s andpolicie s o f th e U.S . Environmenta l ProtectionAgency . Mentio n o f trad e name s o r commercia l product s i s no t intende dt o constitut e endorse men t o r recommendatio nfo r use .



# nP. 4



## CONTENT S Figure s i v Table s iv Acknowledgmen t v 1 . Introductio n1 2 . Estimatio no f LeadUptak e 3

Dail y lea duptak e fro

m lung s 8 Dail y lea duptak e relate dt o die t : . . 1 0 Dail y leaduptak e relate dt o dir t 1 1 Th e Multiyea r LeadUptak e Program 1 2 3 . Use r Promptin g an dOutpu t Forma t o f th e Multiyea r Lead Uptak e Program

1 3 4 . Estimatio no f Bloo dLeadLevel s 1 7 5 . Use r Promptin g andOutpu t Forma t o f th e Biokinetic s Program 2 1 6 . Sensitivit y

Analyse s 2 5 Reference s 3 0 Appendice s A . Estimate s fo r selecte dparamete r value s 3 2 B . Multiyea r LeadUptak e Program an dsampl e output s 3 7 C . Biokinetic s Program an dsampl e output s 5 4



# mP. 5



## FIGURE S Numbe r Pag e 1 Use r Promptin g Statement s o f th e Multiyea r LeadUptak e

Progra m 1 4 2 LeadPathway s Considere dinHarley-Knei pIntegrate dMetaboli c

Mode l 1 8 3 Harley-Knei pIntegrate dMetaboli c Mode l fo r Determinin g Lead

Level s inFou r Bod

y Compartment s 1 9 4 User-Promptin g Statement s o f th e Biokinetic s Progra m 2 2

TABLE S Numbe r 1 2 3 Pag e Parameter s inLeadUptak e Mode l 4 Estimate s fo r Selecte dParameter s o f LeadUptak e Model . .. . 5 Year-Specifi c Estimate s fo r VEHIC , INADIET , an dINMIS C Parameter s o f LeadUptak e Mode l 6 Lowe r an dUppe r BoundEstimate s fo r LeadConcentratio nin Stree t Dus t andSoi l andi nIndoo r Dus t 7 Paramete r Value s fo r th e Biokinetic s Progra m 2 0 Initia l an

dAlternat e Paremete r Value s Use di nSensitivit y Analyse s 2 5 Result s o f Sensitivit y Analyse s 2 8

i vP. 6



## ACKNOWLEDGMEN T Thi s repor t wa s prepare dfo r th e U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc y b y PE I Associates , Inc. , Cincinnati , Ohio . Mr . Jef f Cohe nwa s th e EPA Wor k Assignmen t Manage r an dcontribute dmateria l t o Sectio n6 an dAppendi xA

o f thi s report . Mr . Davi dDunba r serve da s th e PE I Projec t Director . Mr . Te d Johnso nwa s th e PE I Projec t Manage r andth e principa l autho r o f thi s report . Mr . Roy Pau l wrot e th e compute r program s whic himplemen t th e leaduptak e and biokineti c models . Ms . Alici a Ferd o assiste dincompilin g inpu t dat a fo r th e program s andinexecutin g th e programs . Th e author s woul dlik e t o than k Mr . Jef f Cohe nan

dMs . Donn a Sledg e fo r thei r guidanc e anddirectio nonthi s wor kassignment .P. 7



## SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION Unde r th e Clea nAi r Act , th e U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc y (EPA ) i s responsibl e fo r establishin g Nationa l Ambien t Ai r Qualit y Standard s (NAAQS's ) andfo r reviewin g the m periodicall y

t o determin e thei r adequacie s o nth e basi s o f recen t experienc e andresearch . Inview o f thes e responsi bilities , th e Strategie s andAi r Standard s Divisio n(SASD ) o f th e Offic e o f Ai r Qualit y

Plannin g andStandard s (OAQPS ) i s currentl y assessin g healt hrisk s associate dwit halternativ e NAAQS' s fo r lead . A staf f pape r prepare db y SAS D describe s a mode l fo r estimatin g lea duptak e inchildre nbase donestimate s o f leadconcentration s inair , food , anddirt ; onestimate s o f th e quantitie s o f air , food , anddir t consume db y children ; andestimate s o f th e absorptio no f leadb y th e lung s an

dgut . PE I Associates , Inc . (PEI), ' ha s writte na compute r program , Multiyea r LeadUptake , whic himplement s th e SAS Dleaduptak e model . Th e program

provide s dail y

leaduptak e estimate s fo r childre ninuser-specifie d censu s tract s whic hma y o r ma y no t be impacte db

y emission s fro

m leadpoin t sources . Childre nar e groupe dint o cohort s accordin g t o ag e ina user-specifie d bas e year . Th e leaduptak e estimate s ar e month-specifi c an dspanth e perio d fro m th e birt ho f eac hgroupthroug hth e bas e year . Multiyea r LeadUptak e create s anoutpu t fil e whic hcanb e directl y

accesse d b y a secondPE I program , Biokinetics , whic hdetermine s end-of-the-mont hbloo d leadlevel s fo r eac hcohor t fro m birt hthroug hthe bas e year . Thi s program 2 i s base do na four-compartmen t metaboli c mode l develope db y Harle y andKnei p whic hcalculate s lea dconcentration s inbloo dan dselecte dorgan s base don dail y leaduptake . Sectio n2 o f thi s repor t provide s th e formula s use db y th e Multiyea r Lead Uptak e Program

t o estimat e leaduptake . The rational e behindthes e formula s i s discusse dinth e staf f pape r an dinAppendi xA . Use r promptin g statement s andoutpu t forma t fo r thi s program ar e describe dinSectio n3 . Sectio n4 provide s a brie f descriptio no f th e Biokinetic s Program ; Sectio n5 describe sP. 8



## use r promptin gstatement s an dprogram

output . Th e result s o f a sensitivit y analysi s t o determin e the effect s o f varyin ginpu t paramete r value s o nprogram outpu t ar e discusse dinSectio n6 .P. 9



## SECTION 2 ESTIMATION

O F LEA DUPTAK E Th e lea duptak e mode l i s intende dt o be applie dt o a grou po f censu s tract s specifie db

y th e user . Thes e censu s tract s compris e th e "study area. " Withi nth e study

area , th e mode l provide s estimate s o f th e dail y averag e lead uptak e o f specifi c populatio ncohorts . A cohor t i s define da s al l childre n wit ha se t o f user-define dcharacteristic s tha t resid e ina particula r censu s trac t i na specifie dyea r andfal l int o on e o f seve nag e groups : 0 t o 0.9 9 year , 1 t o 1.9 9 years , 2 t o 2.9 9 years , 3 t o 3.9 9 years , 4 t o 4.9 9 years , 5 t o 5.9 9 years , and6 t o 6.9 9 years . Consequently , a study are a wit h10 0 censu s tract s woul dcontai n70 0 cohorts . Th e dail y

averag e leaduptak e (TDLU ) o f eac hmembe r o f a particula r cohor t i s assume dt o be identical . Th e valu e o f TDLUi s calculate db y th e expressio n TDLU= UPLUNG+ UPDIE T + UPDIRT , (1 ) wher e UPLUNGi s th e dail y averag e lea duptak e fro m th e lungs * UPDIE T i s th e dail y averag e lea duptak e relate dt o diet , an dUPDIR T i s th e dail y averag e leaduptak e relate dt o dir t ingestion . Section s 2.1 , 2.2 , and2. 3 discus s ho w UPLUNG , UPDIET , andUPDIR T ar e estimated . Tabl e 1 list s th e parameter s whic happea r inth e leaduptak e mode l an d th e unit s i nwhic heac hshoul dbe expressed . Recommende dvalue s fo r many o f thes e variable s ar e presente di nTable s 2 , 3 , and4 an dinth e text . A

lowe r boundestimat e o f TDLUi s determine db y usin g onl y

lowe r boundparamete r value s i nth e leaduptak e model . A nuppe r boundestimat e o f TDL Ui s determine db y usin g onl y

uppe r boundparamete r values . I f bound s hav e no t bee ndetermine d fo r a variable , a "bes t estimate " valu e i s use dinbot hcases . Estimate s o f TDL Uar e determine do na monthl y basi s t o reflect th e ambien t ai r leaddat a use db y th e model . Thes e dat a consist o f 1 2 monthl yP.1 0

1 1



### Paramete r ABSDIE T ABSDIR T ABSLUNG BAC K CRVAL DIRTCON S DUSTI N DUSTS T HOU T INADIE T INAI R INDIE T INDIR T INMIS C IORATI O MUL T OUTAQ SOURCEAQ TDL U UPDIE T UPDIR T UPLUNG VEHI C VRES P 

## WA Q WDIR T

a 

### Dimensionl e TABL E 1 .

Unit s 

## a a a yg/ m yg/ m g/da y yg/ g yg/ g hours/da y yg/da y yg/da y yg/da y yg/da y yg/da y 

## a a yg/ m yg/ m yg/da y yg/da y yg/da y yg/da y yg/ m m /day yg/ m yg/ g 

## ss . PARAMETER S IN LEADUPTAK E MODE L Definitio n Fractio no f ingeste ddiet-relate dleadwhic hi s absorbe db

y gu t Fractio no f ingeste ddirt-relate dlea dwhic hi s absorbe db

y gu t Fractio no f inhale dlea dwhic hi s absorbe d throug hth e lung s int o th e bloodstream Backgroun dai r leadconcentratio n Critica l outdoo r ai r leadconcentratio n Quantit y

o f dir t consume d Leadconcentratio ninindoor-dus t Leadconcentratio ninstree t dus t andsoi l Time spen t outdoor s Leadintak e relate dt o atmospheri c lea dwhic h contaminate s die t Lea dintak e from

ai r Leadintak e relate dt o die t Leadintak e from

dir t Dietar y leadintak e relate dt o solde r andmis cellaneou s source s (se e text ) Rati o o f indoo r ai r leadconcentratio nt o out doo r ai r leadconcentratio n Multiplicativ e facto r fo r adjustin g SOURCEA Q Outdoo r ai r lea dconcentratio n Ai r lea dconcentratio nrelate dt o poin t source s Tota l dail y

leaduptak e Leaduptak e relate dt o die t Leaduptak e fro

m dir t Leaduptak e fro

m lung s Ai r lea dconcentratio nrelate dt o moto r vehicle s Volume o f ai r respire d Time-weighte dai r leadconcentratio n Time-weighte dconcentratio no f leadindir t



## 4P.1 1



## TABL E 2 . ESTIMATE S FO R SELECTE D PARAMETER S O F LEAD UPTAK E MODE L
Paramete r ABSDIE T
ABSDIRT ABSLUN G

DIRTCON S HOUT
IORATI O

VRES P Locatio n



## N A
N A Genera l 

## PS d


## N A N A

Genera l 

## P S N A Boun

d Lowe r Uppe r 

## b
Lowe r Uppe r Lowe r Uppe r 

## b
Lowe r Uppe r Lowe r Uppe r 

## b
Lowe r Uppe r 0-0.9 9 

# 0.4 2 J 0.53 c 

### 0.3 C 

# o.isj l 0.30 c 

### 0.4 0 0.7 0 0.1 c 

### 1. 0 2. 0 0.3 ^ 0.8 C 

### 0.3 C 

### 2. 0 3. 0 1-1.9 9 0.42* : 0.53 c 

## 0. 3 0.15 ^ 0.30 c 

### 0.4 0 0.6 5 

## 0. 1 1. 0 3. 0 0. 3 0. 8 

## 0. 3 3. 0 5. 0 

## A

c 2-2.9 9 0.3 0 0.4 0 

## 0. 3 0.1 5 0.3 0 0.35 ^ 0.60 c 

## 0. 1 2. 0 4. 0 0. 3 0. 8 

## 0. 3 4.0 C 

### 5.0 C 

### e , year s 3-3.9 9 0.3 0 0.4 0 

## 0. 3 0.1 5 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.6 0 

## 0. 1 2. 0 5. 0 0. 3 0. 8 

## 0. 3 

# 4.0J ; 5.0 C 

### 4-4.9 9 0.3 0 0.4 0 

## 0, 3 0.1 5 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.5 5 

## 0. 1 2. 0 5. 0 0. 3 0. 8 

## 0. 3 5. 0 7. 0 5-5.9 9 0.3 0 0.4 0 

## 0. 3 0.1 5 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.5 5 

## 0. 1 2. 0 5. 0 0. 3 0. 8 

## 0. 3 5. 0 7. 0 6-6.9 9 0.1 8 0.2 4 

## 0. 3 0.1 5 0.3 0 0.3 0 0.5 0 

## 0. 1 2. 0 5. 0 0. 3 0. 8 

## 0. 3 6. 0 8. 0 

## Define d i n Tabl e 1 an d text . Bes t estimate . Lowe r an d uppe r bound s no t specified . 'Derive d di r Appendi xA . P S = nea r poin t source . c 3 Derive d directl yfro mlea d criteri a document . Othe r value s discusse d i nP.1 2



### TABL E



## Yea r 197 4 197 5 197 6 197 7 197 8 197 9 198 0 198 1 198 2 198 3 198 4 198 5 198 6 198 7 198 8 198 9 199 0 199 1 199 2 199 3 199 4 199 5 199 6 199 7 3 . YEAR-SPECIFI C ESTIMATE S FO R VEHIC , INADIET , PARAMETER S O F LEA

D UPTAK E MODE L VEHIC 3 

### yq/m 5 

### 1.2 8 1.2 4 1.2 0 1.1 5 1.0 4 0.8 6 0.5 3 0.4 8 0.4 2 0.3 7 0.2 7 0.1 8 0.0 2 0.0 2 0.0 2 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 INADIET, 3 

### yg/da y 30. 9 29. 8 28. 9 27. 8 25. 1 20. 8 12. 9 11. 5 10. 3 

## 9. 0 6. 5 4. 5 0.5 5 0,3 6 0.3 6 0.3 6 0.3 6 0.1 9 0.1 9 0.1 9 0.1 9 .0.1 9 0.1 9 0.1 9 AN

D INMIS C

INMISC, 3 

### yq/da y 19. 6 19. 6 19. 6 19. 6 19. 6 19. 6 17. 8 16. 2 14. 8 12. 5 12. 0 11. 3 10. 6 10. 1 

## 9. 3 8. 2 7. 1 6. 8 6. 4 6. 0 5. 7 5. 7 5. 7 5. 7 Define d i n Tabl e 1 an d text .P.1 3

1



### TABL E 4 . LOWE R AN

D UPPE R BOUN

D ESTIMATE S FO

R LEA D CONCENTRAT E DUS T AN D SOI L AN

D I NINDOO R DUS T

OUTAQ 3 

## 0 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 1. 0 1.2 5 

## 1. 5 1.7 5 Bound b



## U Lea d concentration , yq/ g Stree t dus t an

d soi l (DIRTST ) Genera l 5 3 0 4 0 15 0 6 0 25 0 10 0 35 0 15 0 45 0 20 0 60 0 25 0 65 0 30 0 95 0 50 0 115 0 60 0 125 0 70 0 140 0 77 5 145 0 Nea r poin t

sourc e 2 0 30 0 8 0 55 0 12 5 60 0 20 0 70 0 35 0 80 0 45 0 100 0 55 0 115 0 65 0 130 0 75 0 145 0 85 0 160 0 100 0 175 0 107 5 195 0 •••••: ,



### 1 I NSTREE T

Indoo r dus t (DIRTIN ) Genera l 5 3 0 7 0 20 0 10 0 '25 0 20 0 30 0 25 0 40 0 30 0 50 0 35 0 60 0 45 0 70 0 52 5 87 5 62 5 100 0 75 0 115 0 80 0 120 0 a 3 Outdoo r lea

d concentration , yg/ m. L = lower , U= upper .



## 7 Nea r poin t sourc e 2 0 10 0 7 0 40 0 25 0 60 0 30 0 65 0 45 0 70 0 55 0 75 0 60 0 80 0 65 0 90 0 80 0 115 0 105 0 140 0 120 0 170 0 135 0 190 0

### P. M



## averag e (January

throug hDecember ) ai r leadconcentratio nvalue s fo r eac h censu s tract . Sectio n2. 4 describe s a compute r program develope db

y PE I tha t calculate s TDL Uvalue s base donaninpu t fil e consistin g o f monthl y averag e ai r leadvalue s spannin g a user-specifie d7-yea r exposur e period . 2. 1 DAIL YLEADUPTAK E FRO M LUNG S Th e dail y

averag e leaduptak e fro m th e lungs , UPLUNG , i s estimate db y th e formul a UPLUNG= (INAIR)(ABSLUNG ) (2 ) wher e INAI Ri s th e averag e dail y intak e o f ai r leadb y respiratio nan

dABSLUNG i s th e fractio no f respire dai r leadwhic hi s absorbe dint o th e bloodstream . Tabl e 2 list s lower an dupper boundestimate s o f ABSLUNGrecommende dfo r us e wit hth e leaduptak e compute r program . Thes e estimate s appea r inth e lead

1 4 staf f paper an

dar e base do

nanalyse s b

y Chanan

dLippman , Davidso nan d 5 6 Osburn , an

dPhale ne t al . ABSLUNGi s assume dt o increas e nea r poin t source s wher e larg e particle s ar e mor e prevalent . Consequently , th e bound s fo r poin t sourc e location s provide dinTabl e 2 ar e large r tha nthos e fo r genera l urban . locations . A

locatio ni s assume dt o be nea r a poin t sourc e wheneve r th e valu e o f SOURCEAQ exceed s a specifie dcritica l valu e (CRVAL) . SOURCEAQ i s discusse dbelow . INAI Ri s estimate db

y th e formul a INAI R= (WAQ)(VRESP ) (3 ) wher e WA Q i s th e time-weighte dai r leadconcentratio nan dVRES P i s th e ai r volume respire dpe r day . Tabl e 2 list s lowe r an duppe r bound s fo r VRES P fo r ter 

## 9 7 8 th e seve nag e group s a s determine db y Ferdo , ICRP , an

dth e Nutritio nFoun dation . WA Q i s estimate db

y th e formul a WA Q = (1/24)[(H0UT)(0UTAQ ) + (2 4 - H0UT)(I0RATI0)(0UTAQ) ] (4 )P.1 5



## wher e OUTAQ i s th e averag e ambien t (i.e. , outdoor ) ai r leadconcentratio n determine dfo r th e censu s trac t fo r th e specifie dmonth , an dHOU T i s th e aver - ' ag e numbe r o f hour s spen t outdoor s pe r day . lORATI Oi s th e rati o o f indoo r ai r leadconcentratio nt o outdoo r ai r leadconcentration . Tabl e 2 list s val ue s o f HOU T b

y ag e groupa s determine db y th e leadstaff an

db y Pope . Th e lowe r an dupper boundvalue s fo r lORATI Oar e 0.3 0 an d0.80 , respectively , fo r genera l urban/rura l locations . Thes e ar e th e bound s suggeste dfo r indoo r 3 microenvironment s b

y th e leadcriteri a document . Fo r location s nea r poin t source s wher e larg e particle s ar e mor e prevalen t an dinfiltratio nint o home s i s lower , a singl e "best " estimat e o f 0. 3 i s considere dappropriat e fo r lORATIO . A locatio ni s assume dt o be nea r a poin t sourc e wheneve r th e valu e o f SOURCEAQ exceed s CRVAL . OUTAQ i s estimate da s

OUTAQ = (MULT)(SOURCEAQ ) + BKGD . (5 ) SOURCEAQ i s th e point-source-relate dcomponen t o f th e ambien t leadconcentra tio nan di s take nfro

m a user-supplie dinpu t fil e specifi c t o th e poin t source(s ) bein g considered , th e contro l scenari o hypothesized , an dth e year . Withi nthi s file , SOURCEAQ value s ar e indexe db y censu s trac t an

dmonth . MUL T i s a user-specifie dmultiplicativ e facto r b y whic hSOURCEAQ value s ca nbe adjuste dt o simulat e regulator y impact s onpoint-sourc e emissions . MUL T value s ar e year-specific . BKG Di s estimate db

y th e expressio n BKGD= VEHI C + ADD . (6 ) VEHI C represent s th e year-specifi c contributio no f moto r vehicle s t o ambien t leadconcentrations . Tabl e 3 list s recommende dvalue s fo r VEHIC . AD Di s a n additiv e facto r whic hcanbe use dt o accoun t fo r backgroundai r leadconcen tration s no t associate dwit hpoin t source s o r moto r vehicles . AD Dvalue s ar e no t year-specific . I ninitia l application s o f th e leaduptak e model , th e valu e o f SOURCEAQ wa s estimate dfo r th e geographi c centroi do f eac hcensu s trac t b y th e Industria l Sourc e Comple x(ISC ) dispersio nmode l using emission s dat a fo rP.1 6



## lea dpoin t source s an dloca l meteorologica l data . Value s o f SOURCEA Q wer e als o calculate db

y th e IS C mode l fo r recepto r point s ona radia l gri dsur roundin g eac hpoin t source . Us e o f thes e radia l grid s permitte destimate s o f SOURCEAQ t o be mad e a t recepto r point s tha t wer e close r t o th e source s tha n an y o f th e censu s trac t centroids . Value s fo r MUL T wer e determine db y dividin g th e maximu

m SOURCEAQ valu e permitte dunde r a give nscenari o b y th e larges t "a s is " o r baselin e SOURCEAQ valu e determine db

y th e ISC . Th e latte r valu e wa s alway s associate dwit ha radia l gri drecepto r poin t rathe r tha nwit ha geographi c centroid . If , fo r example , th e maximu

m SOURCEAQ valu e permitte dafter certai nemissio ncontrol s

3 ar e implemente di s 0.2 5 yg/ m an dth e larges t baselin e SOURCEAQ valu e deter mine db y IS C i s 0.4 0 yg/m 3 

## , the nMUL T = 0.25/0.4 0 = 0.625,• • Thi s MUL T valu e i s the nmultiplie db

y th e SOURCEAQ valu e fo r eac hcensu s trac t centroi da s indicate db

y Equatio n5 . Wher e appropriate , th e impact s onleadexposur e o f two o r mor e poin t source s ca nb e considere dsimultaneously . Inthes e cases , source-specifi c MUL T value s ca nbe use dt o adjus t th e baselin e SOURCEAQ value s associate d wit heac hsource . Th e resultin g source-specifi c SOURCEAQ value s canthe nbe adde dtogethe r t o yiel da SOURCEAQ valu e fo r eac hcensu s trac t representin g th e combine dcontributio no f al l poin t sources . 2. 2 DAIL YLEA

DUPTAK E RELATE DT ODIE T Th e formul a use dt o estimat e UPDIET , th e averag e dail y leaduptak e relate dt o diet , i s UPDIE T = (INDIET)(ABSDIET ) (7 ) wher e INDIE T i s th e averag e dail y intak e o f leadfro

m th e die t an

dABSDIE T i s th e fractio no f leadconsume dwhic hi s absorbe dthroug hth e gu t int o th e bloodstream . Tabl e 2 list s lowe r an duppe r bound s fo r ABSDIE T b y ag e groupa s estimate dinth e staff paper . INDIE T i s estimate da s INDIE T = INADIE T + INMISC . (8 ) INADIE T i s th e averag e dail y dietar y leadintak e relate dt o th e depositio no f atmospheri c leadonfoo dsurface s befor e an ddurin g processing . INMIS C i s th e 1 0P.1 7



## averag e dail y

dietar y

leadintak e relate dt o solde r incanne dfoods , t o wate r distributio nsystems , t o soi l lead , an dt o undetermine dsources . Tabl e 3 list s year-specifi c "bes t estimates " fo r INADIE T an dINMIS C whic hreflec t th e downwar dtrendexpecte dinleadlevel s foundinfoodan dwate r (Appendi xA) . 2. 3 DAIL YLEADUPTAK E RELATE DT ODIR T Th e averag e dail y

leaduptak e relate dt o dir t i s estimate da s UPDIR T = (INDIRT)(ABSDIRT ) (9 ) wher e INDIR T i s th e averag e dail y intak e o f leadthroug hingestio no f dir t an dABSDIR T i s th e fractio no f ingeste dleadwhic hi s absorbe dthroug hth e gu t int o th e bloo dstream . Th e staf f pape r estimate s ABSDIR T t o be 0.30 . INDIR T i s estimate db y th e formul a INDIR T = (WDIRT)"(DIRTCONS ) (10 ) wher e DIRTCON S i s th e averag e quantit y o f dir t consume ddurin g th e perio deac h day whe na chil di s active . Thi s perio di s assume dt o hav e a duratio no f 1 2 hours . WDIR T i s th e time-weighte dleadconcentratio no f th e dirt . Th e staf f pape r recommend s a valu e o f 0. 1 g/day fo r DIRTCONS . WDIR T i s estimate db y th e formul a WDIR T = (1/12 ) [(HOUT)(-DIRTST ) + (1 2 - HOUT)(DIRTIN)] . (11 ) DIRTS T i s th e leadconcentratio no f stree t dus t an dsoil . DIRTI N

i s th e leadconcentratio no f indoo r dust . DIRTS T an dDIRTI N vary wit hth e ambien t ai r leadconcentratio n(OUTAQ ) an dreflec t whethe r o r no t th e censu s trac t i s considere dt o be significantl y impacte db

y a poin t source . Poin t source.impac t i s assume dt o occu r i f th e valu e o f SOURCEAQ exceed s CRVAL . Tabl e 4 list s value s o f DIRTS T an

dDIRTI N fo r bot hnonimpacte dan dimpacte dcensu s tract s accordin g t o OUTAQ value . Thes e estimate s wer e als o obtaine dfro m th e lead staf f paper . Interpolatio ni s use dt o determin e DIRTS T an dDIRTI N value s fo r OUTAQ value s no t appearin g inth e table . 

# 1 1P.1 8



## 2. 4 TH E MULTIYEARLEA DUPTAK E PROGRA

M Section s 2. 1 through2. 3 discus s ho w a TDLUvalv e i s estimate dfo r a singl e cohor t fo r a give nmonth . Th e Multiyea r LeadUptak e Program calculate s month-by-mont hTDL Uvalue s b y cohor t fro

m birt hthroug ha user-specifie dlas t yea r o f exposur e (LYOE) . A separat e outpu t tabl e present s estimate s fo r eac h individua l censu s tract ; th e individua l cohort s withi neac hcensu s trac t ar e identifie daccording t o ag e a t th e beginin g o f th e LYOE . Th e numbe r o f chil dre nineac hcohor t i s als o indicated . Thes e populatio ndat a ar e obtaine d fro m a ninpu t dat a fil e provide db y th e user . Sectio n3 discusse s th e use r promptin g statement s an doutpu t forma t o f th e Multiyea r Uptak e Program . A secondprogram , Biokinetics , use s th e month-by-mont hdail y leaduptak e , estimate s fro

m th e Multiyea r program t o calculat e end-of-mont hbloo dlead concentration s fro

m birt hthroughth e LYO E fo r eac hcohort . Th e program implement s th e mode l describe di nSectio n4 . Sectio n5 discusse s th e use r promptin g statement s an doutpu t forma t o f th e Biokinetic s program . Sectio n6 discusse s th e result s o f a sensitivit y analysi s whic hevaluate dth e effect s onprogram

outpu t o f varyin g program inpu t values .



# 1 2P.1 9



## SECTION 3 USE RPROMPTINGAN DOUTPU T FORMAT O F TH E MULTIYEARLEADUPTAK E PROGRA M Appendi xB contain s a listin g o f th e Multiyea r LeadUptak e Program . Fig ur e 1 list s th e serie s o f promptin g statement s b y whic hth e program

elicit s instructions , paramete r values , andlabelin g informatio nfro m th e user . Th e use r firs t enter s th e name o f th e study are a o r principa l poin t sourc e a s a mean s o f labelin g th e are a t o whic hth e leaduptak e estimate s apply . Nex t th e use r enter s th e name o f th e contro l scenari o t o whic h th e estimate s apply . Response s t o thes e tw o prompt s ar e use dsolel y t o labe l outpu t tables . Th e program

nex t request s whethe r lowe r o r uppe r boundestimate s ar e t o be determined . Th e program the nask s fo r informatio na s t o which - populatio n subgroup s ar e t o be include di nth e uptak e estimates . Not e tha t th e use r can includ e childre nfro

m an y o f si xdemographi c subgroup s define daccordin g t o presenc e o f lead-base dpain t inhousin g (ye s o r no) , housin g conditio n(sound o r unsound) , andpotentia l fo r indirec t o r secondar y occupatio nleadexposur e (ye s o r no) . Th e program als o ask s i f th e populatio nag e group s ar e t o be furthe r subdivided . I f th e answe r i s yes , th e use r ca nspecif y wha t fractio n o f eac hag e groupshoul dbe include dinth e leaduptak e determination . Thi s allow s th e use r t o focu s onth e effect s o f age-relate dfactor s (e.g. , pica ) onleaduptake . Inrespons e t o th e nex t prompting , th e use r enter s the name o f a user-cre ate dfil e whic hcontain s value s fo r al l inpu t parameter s othe r tha nSOURCEAQ andpopulation . Thi s fil e i s referre dt o a s th e "Arrays " file . Sectio n2 contain s recommende dvalue s fo r thi s file . Th e use r nex t enter s th e name o f a user-create dfil e whic hcontain s popu latio ndat a fo r eac ho f th e si xdemographi c group s b y ag e groupandcensu s trac t fo r th e stud

y are a unde r consideration . Thi s fil e als o mus t lis t 1 2 val ue s (January

throug hDecember ) o f SOURCEAQ fo r eac hcensu s tract . Thes e SOURCEAQ value s ar e th e monthl y averag e ai r leadconcentratio nfro m source s in 1 3P.2 0



## COHOR T MULTI-YEA

RLEA D Calculate s dail y

uptak e b

y Fo r selecte dchildre n UPTAK E PROGRAM mont hove r lifetim e ag e 0- 6 year s 01-06-198 6 Strategie s and Ai r Standard s Divisio n

SPECIFICATION S FO R THI S ANALYSIS : Ente r nam e o f stud yare a o r principa l poin t sourc e (in CAPS) : rj N 

## Ente r nam e o f contro l scenari o t o b e analyse d (i n CAPS);.
-
* ^ p 

## Lower(0 ) o r upper(1 ) boun d estimate ? Pres s CShift-PrtSc ) t o prin t thes e specifications ; The n pres s 'ENTER ' t o continue : SPECIFICATION S CONTINUED : Whic ho f th e fallowin g populatio n group s shoul d b e include d i n thi s analysis ? I f mor e tha n one , grou p population s wil l b e added . i'Note : LP H = lead-painte d house ; SO E = secondar yoccupationa l exposure ) Childre n i n LPHNunsound , wit hSO E (Y/N) ? Childre n i n LPHNunsound , n o SO E (Y/N) ? Childre n i n LPHNsound . wit hSO E (Y/N) ? Childre n i n LPHNsound , n o SO E (Y/N) ? Childre n i n non-LPH , wit hSO E (Y/N) ? Childre n i n non-LPH , n o SO E (Y/N) ? Shoul d chil d group s b e furthe r subdivide d fo r thi s analvsis(Y/N) ? Pres s (Shift-Prt3c ) t o prin t thes e The n pres s 'ENTER ' t o continue : ;pec i f ications .

Figur e 1 . Use r promptin g statement s o f th e Multiyea r Lea d Uptak e Program ,

(continued ) 

# 14P.2 1



## SPECIFICATION S CONTINUED : Ente r nam e o-

f inpu t (Arrays ) fil e i n DO S format : Ente r nam e o-

f inpu t (AQ ) -fil e i n DO S format : Ente r nam e o f outpu t fil e i n DO S -format : Ente r las t yea r o f exposur e ( 4 digits) : 198 0 Thi s progra m

use s . a se t o f 1974-199 7 backgroun d value s fo r moto r vehicles . D o yo u wan t t o substitut e a se t o f rura l backgroun d value s (Y/N ) ? Yea r Yea r Yea r Yea r Yea r Yea r Year . 197 4

197 5 197 6 197 7 197 8 197 9 198 0 7 

## Shoul d backgroun d value s b e use d t o indicat e critica l value s abov e whic hpoin t sourc e impac t i s assume d (Y/N ) ? Ente r alternat e A Q critica l valu e (ug/cu.m. ) abov e whic h poin t sourc e impac t shoul d b e assumed: ' Yea r Year . Yea r Yea r Yea r Yea r Yea r Ente r ad d Ente r mu l Yea r • Yea r Yea r Yea r Yea r V'sar Yea r ."-.-ess ;'S

h "•"hi-r- n ore s 

### 197 4

197 5 197 6 197 7 197 8 197 9 19S 0 i t i v e 

### tipl i 197 4 197 5 197 6 197 7 197 8 197 9 193 0 i ft- P s " E N 

## •oun

d facto r (othe r tha n vehicles ) t o adjus t AQ : factor s t o adjus t A Q b yyear :

rtSc ) t o prin t thes e specification s TER't a c c n t inua :

Figur e 1 . Use r promptin g statement s o f th e Multiyea r Lea d Uptak e Program . 1 5P.2 2



## th e stud y are a durin g th e bas e year . Pau l ha s develope da program , MATCH-AQ , whic hcreate s thi s fil e usin g populatio ndat a fro m th e Burea uo f Censu s an d dispersio nmodelin g estimate s o f leadai r quality . Th e program yield s separat e dat a set s fo r 198 0 andfo r eac ho f tw o futur e year s specifie db y th e user . Th e use r o f th e leaduptak e program specifie s whic hdat a se t t o us e b y enterin g th e appropriat e fil e name inrespons e t o a reques t fo r th e "inpu t POPAQ file. " Th e use r als o specifie s th e name o f anoutpu t fil e whic hwil l serv e a s inpu t t o th e Biokinetic s program . Th e use r nex t enter s th e las t yea r o f th e seven-yea r exposur e perio dfo r whic hth e program

wil l calculat e leaduptak e values . Th e use r i s the ngive n a choic e o f 1 ) havin g BKG Drepresen t urba nlocation s b y incorporatin g th e val ue s o f VEHI C liste dinTabl e 3 o r 2 ) specifyin g a nalternativ e se t o f BKG Dval ue s whic hbette r represen t rura l locations . I f th e use r choose s th e latte r option , th e program

request s a valu e fo r eac hyea r o f th e exposur e period . Th e program als o ask s whethe r th e critica l valu e (CRVAL ) fo r eac hyea r shoul dequa l th e BKG Dvalu e specifie dfo r tha t year . I f th e answe r i s no , th e use r i s aske d t o specif y

a CRVA L fo r eac hyea r inth e exposur e period . Th e remainin g prompt ing s reques t tha t th e use r ente r a singl e valu e fo r th e additiv e backgroun d facto r (ADD ) an

dseve nyear-specifi c value s fo r MULT .



# 1 6P.2 3



## SECTION 4 ESTIMATION

O F BLOO DLEADLEVEL S Harle y andKnei phav e develope danintegrate dmetaboli c mode l whic hesti mate s day-by-da y

bloo dlea dlevel s base do ndail y uptak e o f leadint o th e bloodstream . Th e mode l assume s tha t mos t (ove r 95% ) o f th e leadinth e bod y i s containe dinfou r compartment s (bone , liver , kidney , an dblood ) an

dtha t leadmove s amon g thes e compartment s ina predictabl e manner . Figur e 2 show s th e variou s leadpathway s considere dinth e Harley-Knei pmodel . Figur e 3 present s th e mathematica l relationship s whic hth e mode l use s ina niterativ e manne r t o estimat e th e tota l leadconten t ineac hcompartmen t a s th e bod y receive s varyin g dail y leadinputs . Harle y an dKnei phav e incorporate dthes e relationship s int o a compute r program fo r estimatin g bloodleadconcentration s 1 2 inchildre n1 t o 6 year s o f age . PE I ha s adapte dth e Harley-Knei pprogram t o accep t dail y

lea duptak e value s (i.e. , TDLU ) a s estimate dfo r a cohor t b y th e Multiyea r LeadUptak e Program . Th e resultin g Biokinetic s Program track s a cohor t fro

m birt ho nJanuar y

1 o f a user-specifie dcalenda r yea r throug h th e las t day

o f a user-specifie dcalenda r year . A yea r i s assume dt o contai n 1 2 month s o f 3 0 days . Th e cohor t receive s th e sam e dail y leaduptak e fo r eac h o f th e 3 0 day s ina month . Thi s valu e i s th e TDLUvalu e estimate dfo r tha t mont hb y th e Multiyea r LeadUptak e Model . Th e Biokinetic s Program calculate s th e resultin g bloo dleadconcentratio nona dail y basi s bu t print s ou t onl y end-of-the-mont hvalues . Thus , 36 0 sequentia l bloo dleadconcentration s ar e calculate dfo r a give nyear , bu t onl y th e 1 2 end-of-the-mont hvalue s ar e actuall y printe dout . Tabl e 5 list s th e paramete r value s use db y Harle y an dKnei pinthei r model . Thes e hav e beenincorporate dint o th e Biokinetic s Program . Not e tha t many

o f thes e value s chang e wit hth e ag e o f th e child . Sectio n5 present s typica l outpu t fro

m th e Biokinetic s Program .



# 1 7P.2 4



# ' c N 

# WJl/

c 

# « *

FXGi 

# ( Bon e)
Cs b



# • ^b u

Figur e 2 . Leadpathway s considere din ? 

## Harley-Knei p

integrate dmetaboli c model .



# 1 8P.2 5

dB/d t - P - C b a x B - C b l xB - C b f c xB • C s bxS + C l bx L +

C k b *K" C b u x B * F x C l g x L dS/d t - C b a x B - C a bx S dL/d t - C b l x B - C l bx L - C l g xI . dK/d t - C b l t xB - Cj. bxK Wher e P . - datl yInpu t t o bloo d l n ug/da y C b- bloo d t o skeleto n renova l rat e (days"'' ) C b- skeleto n t o bloo d remova l rat e " C b , - bloo d t o live r remova l rat e " C l b• live r t o bloo d remova l rat e " C b k " ^loo d t 0 kidae yremova l rat e " C^ b» kidne yt o bloo d remova l rat e " Cv. . " bloo d t o urin e remova l rat e " D U C^ g - live r t o gastrointestina l trac t

remova l rat e " F • fractiona l uptak e fro m gastrointestina l trac t t o bloo d B,S,L, K • tota l lead conten t i n blood, skeleton , liver , kidne y

(ug ) Th e orga n burden s ar e calculate d l a a a Iterativ e manne r usin g th e expression s 3(t+l)-B(c ) » dB/d t S(t+L)-S(t ) * dS/d t etc .


## Figur e 3 . Harley-Knei p integrate d metaboli cmode l fo rdeterminin g

lea d level s i n fou rbodycompartments. 2 1 9r o

o Paramete r C bs Cs b C b l C l b C b k C kb C b u
c i g F 

### TABL E 5

Exploratio n Bloo d t o bone.remova l rate , days " Bon e t o blood,remova l rate , days " Bloo d t o live rremova l rate , days " Live rt o blood remova l rate , days " Bloo d t o kidne

yre ; , mova l rate , days " Kidne yt o blood re : , mova l rate , days " Bloo d t o urin e remova l rate , days " Live rt o gastroin testina l trac t re mova l rate , days " Fractiona l uptak

e fro m gastrointestiona l trac t t o blood 

### . PARAMETE R VALUE S 0-0.9 9 0.30 0 2.6 5 xIO" 4 0.030 1 0.013 0 0.010 0 0.030 1 0.033 4 3 0. 4 1-1.9 9

0.30 0 2.6 5 x10" 4 0.030 1 0.013 0 0.010 0 0.030 1 0.033 4 3 0. 4 

### FO R TH E BIOKINETIC S PROGRAM

2-2.9 9 0.13 4 2.6 5 xIO" 4 0.030 1 0.013 0 0.010 0 0.030 1 0.033 4 • 5 0. 3 Age , years

3-3.9 9 0.13 4 2.6 5 xIO" 4 0.030 1 0.013 0 0.010 0 0.030 1 0.033 4 5 0. 3 4-4.9 9

0.13 4 2.6 5 xIO" 4 0.030 1 0.013 0 0.010 0 0.030 1 0.033 4 5 0. 3 5-5.9 9

0.f3 4 2.65. xIO" 4 0.030 1 0.013 0 0.010 0 0.030 1 0.030 1 1 0 0. 3 6-6.9 9

0.13 4 2.6 5 xIO" 4 0.030 1 0.013 0 0.010 0 0.030 1 0.030 1 1 0 0. 3P.2 7



## SECTION 5 USE RPROMPTINGANDOUTPU T FORMAT O F TH E BIOKINETIC S PROGRA M Appendi xC contain s a listin g o f th e Biokinetic s Program . Figur e 4 list s th e serie s o f promptin g statement s b y whic hth e program

elicit s instructions , paramete r values , andlabelin g informatio nfro m th e user . Th e use r firs t enter s th e name o f th e stud y are a o r principa l poin t sourc e a s a mean s o f labelin g th e are a t o whic hth e program estimate s apply . Nex t th e use r enter s th e name o f th e contro l scenari o t o whic hth e estimate s apply . Response s t o th e tw

o prompt s ar e use dsolel y t o labe l outpu t tables . Th e program

nex t request s th e calenda r yea r whic hwil l be th e las t yea r o f th e 7-yea r exposur e period . Th e use r shoul dente r th e sam e yea r previousl y specifie dfo r th e Multiyea r LeadUptak e Program ru nwhic hcreate dth e inpu t dat a fil e fo r th e Biokinetic s Program . Th e use r the nenter s th e name o f thi s fil e an dindicate s whic hestimate s (lowe r o r uppe r bound ) th e fil e contains . Th e las t promptin g statemen t ask s i f th e use r want s th e geometri c mea no f th e 1 2 end-of-mont hbloo dleadvalue s calculate dfo r eac hcohort' s sixt hyea r o f exposure . Appendi xC contain s printout s fo r "lowe r bound " an d"uppe r bound " run s o f th e program

fo r th e study

are a previousl y

discusse dinSectio n3 . Eac h printou t consist s o f a separat e tabl e fo r eac hcensu s trac t inth e study are a an dfou r table s whic hpresen t result s average dacros s al l censu s tracts . Value s tabulate dinth e censu s trac t table s ar e end-of-the-mont hbloo dlead concentration s fro

m birt hthroug hth e las t yea r o f th e exposur e period . Th e forma t i s simila r t o tha t o f th e Multiyea r LeadUptak e Program intha t esti mate s ar e arrange daccordin g t o th e cohort' s ag e inth e las t year . Th e las t tw

o page s o f eac hprintou t contai nthe fou r summary tables . Thes e table s pertai nonl y

t o thos e cohort s whos e sevent hyea r o f lif e i s the las t yea r th e 7-yea r exposur e period . (I f th e las t yea r o f th e exposur e perio dyea r i s 1980 , fo r example , thes e woul db e thos e childre nbor na t th e beginnin g o f 1974. ) Summary

Tabl e 1 present s month-by-mont hgeometri c mean s o f th e end-of the-mont hbloo dleadconcentration s o f al l cohort s bornonJanuar y 1 o f th e 2 1P.2 8



### --



## BIOKINETIC S Versio n 2. 0 Calculate s end-of-mont hbloo d lea d Concentration s fo r chidre n aa e 0- 6 year s

01-06-198 6 Strategie s and Ai r Standard s Divisio n

SPECIFICATION S FO R THI S ANALYSIS : Ente r nam e o f stud yare a o r principa l poin t sourc e (in CAPS) : Ente r nam e o-

f contro l scenari o t o b e analyze d (i n -CAPS ) : . Ente r las t yea r o f chil d exposur e ( 4 diqits) : PROGRAM ONL Y FO R 1980-199 7 Wha t typ e o f uptak e estimate s —upper(1 ) o r lower(0 ) bounds ? D o yo u wan t th e geometri c mea n bloo d concentratio n fo r eac hcensu s trac t durin g th e nex t t o las t yea r o f exposure(Y/N) ? Input s complete . Pres s (Shi-ft-PrtSc ) t o prin t specifications . The n pres s 'ENTER ' t o continue : Paus e t o initializ e array s o f dat a i n program.. . Begi n calculation s fo r eac hcohor t withi n censu s tracts ;

Figur e 4 . User-promptin g statement s o fth e

Biokinetic s Program .

2 2P.2 9



## firs t yea r liste di nth e left-handcolumn . Thes e value s ar e calculate da s follows . Le t x . - k

## be the end-of-the-mont hbloo dleadconcentratio nfo r cohor t i i nth e yea r j andmont hk . The ny. . , the bloodleadconcentratio nliste di n Summar y Tabl e 1 fo r mont hko f calenda r yea r j , i s calculate db y th e expressio n y j k

## = exp[z(p.)(l nx.^J/zp ^ (12 ) wher e p . i s th e numbe r o f childre ni ncohor t i an dthe summation s includ e al l cohort s i nth e stud

y are a whic hmee t th e stipulatio nstate dabove . Not e tha t y. . i s a population-weighte dgeometri c mean . Summar y Tabl e 2 present s population-weighte dgeometri c mean s o f annua l averag e bloodleadlevel s fo r th e same cohort s considere di nSummar y Tabl e 1 . Th e geometri c mea nfo r yea r j , y. , i s calculate da s J 

## y. = exp[z(p.)(l nm...)/zp . ] (13 ) wher e m. . i s the arithmeti c mea no f th e 1 2 end-of-the-mont hbloodleadcon centratio nvalue s fo r cohor t i i nyea r j , p . i s the numbe r o f childre ni n cohor t i , andth e summation s includ e al l cohort s meetin g the previousl y state d stipulation . Th e seve nvalue s liste dinthe right-han dcolum no f Summar y

Tabl e 3 ar e calculate da s follows . Le t h. . be th e highes t end-of-the-mont hbloodlead
• J 

## concentratio nfo r cohor t i i nyea r j . The ny. , th e bloo dleadconcentratio n liste dinth e right-han dcolum no f Summary

Tabl e 3 fo r calenda r yea r j i s calculate db

y th e expressio n

y. = exp[z( Pi 

## )(l nh^O/zp . ] (14 ) wher e p . i s the numbe r o f childre ni ncohor t i an dthe summation s includ e al l cohort s i nth e stud

y are a whic hmee t the stipulatio nstate dabove . Thu s y . J 

## i s a population-weighte dgeometri c mea no f the highes t end-of-mont hblood leadconcentration . Indevelopin g Summar y Tabl e 4 , th e program firs t calculate s a. , th e arith meti c mea no f the x. . value s fo r the firs t fou r year s o f a cohort' s life , an d b. , th e arithmeti c mea no f th e x i 

## . value s fo r the nex t thre e year s o f a cohort' s 2 3

## life . Th e firs t valu e liste di nth e right-handcolum no f Summary

Tabl e 4 i s calculate da s
w a

## = exp[z(p i 

## )(l na^/zp ^ ; (15 ) th e secondi s calculate da s
w b

## = exp[z(p.)(l nb^/zp ^ . (16 ) Th e summation s includ e al l cohort s inthe stud y are a whic hmee t th e state d stipulation . Th e quantitie s w an dw . ar e bot hpopu l ation-.weightedgeometri c means .



# 2 4P.3 1



## SECTION 6 SENSITIVIT YANALYSE S Multipl e run s o f th e Multiyea r LeadUptak e andBiokinetic s program wer e mad e t o asses s th e effect s onbloodleadestimate s o f varyin g th e value s assigne dt o selecte dinpu t parameters . Al l run s use dth e same study area , a se t o f censu s tract s surroundin g a secondar y smelte r locate di

na relativel y densel y populate dare a o f a U.S . city . Th e parameter s liste dinTabl e 6 wer e selecte dfo r th e sensitivit y analyse s becaus e o f their apparentl y larg e in fluenc e onbloo dleadestimate s relativ e t o tha t o f othe r parameters . Liste d inTabl e 6 i s th e initia l valu e usedfo r eac hparameter , a nalternat e valu e substitute dfo r th e initia l value , andth e scenari o being analyzed . TABL E 6 . INITIAL ANDALTERNAT E Parameter(s ) DIRTCON S INMIS C

DUSTI N DIRTS T DUSTI N + DIRTS T DUSTI N + DIRTS T Initia l valu e 0. 1 g/day Year-specifi c estimate s (se e Tabl e 3 ) Lowe r bound estimates 3 

## Lowe r bound estimates 3 

## Lowe r bound estimates 3 

## Uppe r bound estimates 3 

## PARAMETE RVALUE S Alternat e valu e 0. 2 g/day Se e tex t
Uppe r bound estimates 3 

## Uppe r bound estimates 3 

## Uppe r bound estimates 3 

## Lowe r bound estimates 3 

## USE DIN SENSITIVIT YANALYSE S Scenari o analyze d Baselin e exposur e Lowe r an dupper boundrun s Precontro l exposur e and post-contro l exposur e (1. 0 yg/m 3 

## standard ) Lowe r an dupper boundrun s Baselin e exposur e Lowe r boundrun Baselin e exposur e Lowe r boundru

n Baselin e exposur e Lowe r boundru

n Baselin e exposur e Uppe r boundru

n Lowe r an dupper boundestimate s usedar e value s presente di nTabl e 4 fo r "nea r poin t source. " 2 5r o

(Tt • o

o >

- 5 0 1 3 f B c + f B

- s t o 

### • <wcOiOOiT3(l-p . rt rt O t o t o D i ( B 1 3 3 -P . OOIO-J . 3"—'rt C

— ' o x > <-$-i3c+ofBcc- j COfBc+fB0ic+Q.-J . 3 O.Q-- h f D 3 "5 3 " 3 3 -• •O U l O f D -• •fli Q . f D tQOr+t03"OQ.fD O -ft C TO l f B - h -• •-'• 3 tOf D O C O 3 -• •O O X I X J a -St0CO-SOQ.3- h — t 01 in in f D 3 C L - h C U l /-N( D rt B l O OQ-Q-fD— ' to - rtlt X( U 3 -" • I- H — •I D t o rt 3" ' T 3 — ' ; o rt < Oi O - h f B t Q < - h — • C03-0iOQ.-'.0i- S •O l - $ f B — •

— I f B — ' C — •3 I D —•> •-JOQ-f D » •C rt O CL- Q f D -"' 3 O l C O
< S a m O l f D C I O

- S - 5 m

rt - • •I D c+

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## I ngeneral , th e ai r qualit y (SOURCEAQ ) throughou t eac hcensu s trac t i s assume dt o equa l th e ai r qualit y a t th e geographi c cente r o f th e censu s tract . Insome cases , th e geographi c cente r ma y be a significan t distanc e fro m th e populatio ncente r o f a censu s tract . Ai r qualit y a t th e tw

o point s coul dbe significantl y different , wit hth e ai r qualit y a t th e populatio n cente r bein g considere dth e mor e accurat e indicato r o f exposur e fo r th e childre nresidin g inth e censu s tract . T o determin e th e magnitud e o f th e discrepancy , alternativ e SOURCEAQ inpu t file s wer e develope dusing th e IS C dispersio nmode l an

dtwo radia l grids . A serie s o f run s wer e mad e t o asses s th e effec t o f recepto r poin t loca tio no nbloo dlea destimates . Inon e run , th e SOURCEAQ fo r eac hcensu s trac t wa s determine dusing th e geographi c centroi do f th e censu s trac t a s th e recepto r poin t fo r th e IS C model . Inanothe r run , geographi c centroid s wer e use dfo r al l bu t th e two censu s tract s closes t t o th e smelter . A radia l gri d recepto r poin t 100 0 m fro m th e smelte r wa s usedfo r th e censu s trac t neares t th e smelter ; a recepto r poin t 200 0 m fro m th e smelte r wa s use dfo r th e othe r censu s tract . Thes e recepto r point s approximate dth e location s o f th e populatio ncentroid s o f th e two censu s tracts . Ina thir drun , radia l gri d recepto r point s 50 0 m from th e smelte r wer e use dfo r bot hcensu s tracts . Thes e location s wer e assume dt o represen t residentia l area s experiencin g ai r leadlevel s nea r th e maximu m level s expecte dinthe tw o censu s tracts . Result s o f th e differen t sensitivit y analyse s ar e give ninTabl e 7 . T o illustrat e th e effect s o f th e variou s adjustments , bloo dleadlevel s pre dicte db y th e mode l using paramete r value s give ninTable s 2 , 3 , an d4 ar e als o show

nfo r differen t scenarios . A s note dpreviously , al l o f th e sensi tivit y analyse s use dth e same U.S . secondar y leadsmelter . Th e result s pre sente dinTabl e 7 fo r run s withou t an y adjustment s appl y

t o th e same smelter . Base donth e result s o f th e sensitivit y analyses , th e followin g conclu sion s ca nbe drawn . 1 . Doublin g th e estimat e fo r th e averag e dail y dir t ingestio nrat e fro m 0. 1 t o 0. 2 g/day

significantl y

increase dthe bloodleadesti mates . Th e marke dsensitivit y o f th e mode l t o thi s parameter , whic hi s base dona limite damoun t o f dat a inrelatio nt o th e othe r parameters , shoul dbe highlighted . Furthermore , non e o f th e analyse s complete dt o dat e wer e intende dt o mode l childre nwit h pica . Althoug hno precis e estimate s ar e available , th e amoun t o f dir t ingeste db

y childre nwit ha highdegre e o f pic a i s significantl y

2 7

### TABL E 7 . RESULT S O F SENSITIVIT YANALYSE S

r o o o 

### Ai r leadscenari o Base l Basel i Base l Basel i Basel i Basel ! Base l Basel i Base l Basel i Base l Basel ! ne-lowe r bound ne-uppe r bound ne-lowe r bound ne-uppe r bound ne-lowe r bound ne-lowe r bound ne-lowe r bound ne-uppe r bound ne-lowe r bound ne-uppe r bound ne-lowe r bound ne-uppe r bound Precontrol-lowe r bound Precontrol-uppe r bound Precontrol-lowe r bound Precontrol-uppe r bound Post-contro l (1. 0 yg/m 3 

### ) - lowe r bound Post-contro l (1. 0 pg/m 3 

### ) - uppe r bound Post-contro l (1. 0 pg/m 3 

### ) - lowe r bound Post-contro l (1. 0 uo/m 3 

### ) - uppe r bound Parameter(s ) teste d(value ) No adjustment s N o adjustment s DUSTCON S (0. 2 g/day ) DUSTCON S (0. 2 g/day ) DUSTI N (uppe r boundestimates ) DIRTS T (uppe r boundestimates ) DUSTI N + DIRTS T (uppe r bounds ) DUSTI N + DIRTS T (lowe r bounds ) Radia l gri dai r qualit y value s substitute dfo r geographi c centroi dvalue s a t 100 0 o r 200 0 meter s onl y Radia l gri dai r qualit y value s substitute dfo r geographi c centroi dvalue s a t 50 0 meter s onl y N o adjustment s N o adjustment s INMIS C (canne dfoo dlea dconstan t post-1983 ) INMIS C (canne dfoodleadconstan t post-1983 ) No adjustment s No adjustment s INMIS C (canne dfoo dlea dconstan t post-1983 ) INMIS C (canne dfoodleadconstan t post-1983 ) Bloo dlea dlevels 3 

### 0- 3 year s 19. 4 27. 0 31. 6 44. 4 23. 3 20. 4 24. 3 21. 4 19." 3 26. 9 19. 5 27. 1 5. 2 9. 9 5. 3 10. 0 1. 4 3. 5 2. 0 4. 4 4- 6 year s

14. 3 21. 2 23. 6 35. 5 17. 4 15. 5 18. 6 15. 9 14. 3 21. 1 14. 4 21. 3 2. 4 5. 9 2. 6 6. 3 1. 1 3. 4 1. 6 4. 2 36t hmont h

19. 2 27. 1 31. 9 45. 4 23. 1 20. 6 24. 5 21. 3 19. 1 27. 0 19. 2 27. 2 4. 4 9. 7 4. 5 9. 8 1. 3 3. 6 1 4. 6 Bloodleadlevel s presente drepresen t averag e level s o f the 7-yea r cohort s bornt o th e beginnin g o f th e time perio danalyze d(1974-1980 , 1983-1989 , o r 1990-1996) , a t differen t period s i nthei r life . Thes e level s ar e usedi

nth e ris kassessmen t a s indicator s o f exposur e fo r estimatin g th e risk s associate dwit h alternativ e leadNAAQ S o f variou s healt heffects . 3 

### Bloo dleadresult s show nar e average s acros s al l censu s tract s surroundin g poin t source . I ncontras t t o are a averages , bloo dleadlevel s i nindividua l censu s tract s tha t wer e reanalyze dindicat e significan t differences fro

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S fD~ S U l — ' -t > O WO O T 3 -I|3 C c+ D f D Oi-S-J- W C r t I D T3 -" •OJOJa-'--t>OOi 3 I Q -P. 2 "S B l -P-OB I H i f D " S 3 I D rtfD -••Wrt3-Ortrt0Jct - " 1 ( D Wrtrt -S-W3W 3 3—'r t CT O a 0-S30JfD030rtr t D l W O 3--J3- 0 ->.fDW3-3"Q.3 - I D 3 -'•3 " f D -'•O i f

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S - S C wI D O fD O rt ci- to a O—'-tirt-rt-300 3 3-V ; C -4.- 0 -• •CT O W3-ID0JWOW0 J r+ai D -$ID-SID3fDWr t 3"T 3 3 " SOf D 1 TO O (DI O rt. WO~ S —'-O O — ' O . C 0 1 O i rt -'•CXJrt- J - -Q- S W3W3»3-fD O fDID-'»3rtCJ-''0iOa3f D TD l -J'-tiU l

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J rt Ol — ' a-S(Dr t 3 - 3rtSWr t 1Q03 - OOJ030Jr t — ' f D a rt a rt rtl D 3 3 C L "~^ 0 3 W-hl D OI D B l 3 TrtI D f t rt TI D r t •O O I D rtOrtlQrt W W-" •OiOO O ww a OIDrtO_- S Crt-h W< -SX3rt(B- S O-SfB-S-J . 3ct a J a rt -••»- •XJOr t - h C — « rt O rtIO TO i 3 f D I D IBf D ID3--J-S0)X > O (D 3 3 " rtWSWtQO O O O i O l 3 I D S rt I D J - " 5 O 3--SID"<O i O-hW— ' w-J . 0 1 OOrt-J- C Oi-ncTfB—'SWO I fB3 0 - h 3 -• •WO Q.0J30J- S fBf D — • rtOrt-WCOr t rt-".3-Q.W rt O — •IDO-^ WO O Q. 3 SI- H OQ-OJc t -SI D -" • fD-S- 1 ' — 1 _i . SIDfDfD-SOOJt Q I . rtOID?JOrt3-a W a i rtO rt WOa 3 - h - s — I ~ S fD fD C 3 a 1 I D •w- s w Wc*P.3 6



## REFERENCE S 1 . U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency . Review o f th e Nationa l Ambien t Ai r Qualit y

Standard s fo r Lead : Assessmen t o f Scientifi c an dTechnica l Information . Offic e o f Ai r Qualit y Plannin g andStandards , draf t staf f paper . Apri l 1985 . 2 . Harley , N . H. , an dT . H . Kneip . A

nIntegrate dMetaboli c Mode l fo r Lead inHuman s o f Al l Ages . U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency , Contrac t No . B4489 9 wit hNew

Yor kUniversit y

Schoo l o f Medicine , Departmen t o f Environmenta l Medicine . Januar y 30 , 1985 . 3 . U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency . Ai r Qualit y Criteri a fo r Lead . Researc hTriangl e Park , Nort hCarolina . Augus t 1984 . 4 . Chan , T . L. , an

dM . Lippman . Experimenta l Measurement s an dEmpirica l Modelin g o f th e Regiona l Depositio no f Inhale dParticle s inHumans . Am . Ind . Hyg . Assoc . J. , 41:399-408 , 1980 . 5 . Davidson , C . I. , an dJ . F . Osborn . Th e Size s o f Airborn e Trac e Meta l Containin g Particles . In : Toxi c Metal s inth e Air . J . 0 . Nriag uand C . I . Davidso neds . New York , Ne

w York , 1984 . 6 . Phalen , R . F. , M . J . Oldham , C . B . Beaucage , an dT . T . Crocker . Postnata l Enlargemen t o f Huma nTracheobronchia l Airway s an dImplication s fo r Particl e Deposition . Anatomica l Record . Vol . 212 , 1985 . 7 . Ferdo , A . M . Ventilatio nRate s fo r Testin g LeadNEM . Memorandu m fro m PE I Associates , Inc. , t o Mr . Jef f Cohen , U.S . Environmenta l Protectio n Agency , Researc hTriangl e Park , Nort hCarolina . Apri l 1985 . 8 . Internationa l Committe e onRadiologica l Protectio n(ICRP) . Repor t o f th e Tas kGrou ponReferenc e Man : Repor t No . 23 . Pregamo nPress , Ne w York , 1975 . 9 . Nutritio nFoundation , Inc . Assessmen t o f th e Safet y o f Leadan

dLead Salt s inFood : A

Repor t o f th e Nutritio nFoundation' s Exper t Advisor y Committee , Washington , D.C . Th e Nutritio nCenter . 1982 . 10 . Pope , A . A . Developmen t o f Activit y Pattern s fo r Populatio nExposur e t o Ozone . Memorandu

m fro m PE I Associates , Inc. , t o Mr . To m McCrudy , U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency , Researc hTriangl e Park , Nort hCarolina . Jun e 1985 . 

# 3 0P.3 7



## 11 . Paul , R . A . Demographi c Dat a fo r LeadExposur e Analysis . Repor t fro m PE I Associates , Inc. , t o Mr . Richar dAtherton , U.S . Environmenta l Pro tectio nAgency , Researc hTriangl e Park , Nort hCarolina . Januar y 1986 . 12 . Harley , N . H. , an dT . H . Kneip . A

Metaboli c Mode l t o Calculat e Bloo d LeadandConcentration s inSelecte dOrgan s b y Mont hfo r Childre nAge s 1 t o 6 . A Repor t fro

m Ne w Yor kUniversit y

Schoo l o f Medicine , Departmen t o f Environmenta l Medicin e t o th e U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency , Researc hTriangl e Park , Nort hCarolina . Augus t 1985 .



# 3 1P.3 8



## APPENDI XA ESTIMATE S FORSELECTE DPARAMETE RVALUE S Value s fo r parameter s o f th e leaduptak e mode l give ninTable s 2 an d3 o f th e mai ntex t tha t ar e no t derive ddirectl y fro m th e leadstaff paper ar e discusse dinthi s appendix . 1 . ABSDIE T represent s th e averag e fractio no f ingeste ddietar y lea d tha t i s absorbe dthroug hth e gastrointestina l trac t int o th e bloodstream . 2 3 Leadbalanc e studie s ininfant s (Alexande r an dZiegle r ) repor t G I uptak e factor s inth e rang e o f 4 2 t o 5 3 percen t base donmeasurement s o f leadi nth e 4- 6 die t an dexcreta . Severa l studie s hav e foundtha t adult s absor ba muc h smalle r fractio no f ingeste ddietar y leadwit hmeasurement s rangin g betwee n 7 t o 2 0 percent . Fo r th e presen t model , a rang e o f 42't o 5 3 percen t i s use d fo r infant s u

pt o thei r thir dyea r o f life , 1 8 t o 2 4 percen t fo r childre n upo nreachin g their 7t hyea r o f life , an dproportional , incrementa l value s inintermediat e ages . 2 . Tabl e 3 describe s pas t an dfutur e trend s inaverag e dail y dietar y leadintak e (INDIET ) fo r 1974-1997 . Year-specifi c estimate s b y Battye 7 

## o f th e mobil e sourc e contributio nt o ambien t leadconcentratio ninurba nareas ,

3 VEHI C yg/ m

, ar e use dt o estimat e INADIET , the averag e dail y leadintak e relate dt o atmospheri c leaddepositio nonfoo dsurface s befor e an ddurin g processing . Pas t trend s inleadsolde r usag e incanne dfoods , anticipate d futur e reduction s i nlea dsolde r usage , andth e anticipate dimpac t o f th e o 

## expecte drevisio no f th e leaddrinkin g wate r standar dwer e use dt o mak e year specifi c estimate s o f th e contributio no f thes e source s t o averag e dail y dietar y leadintake . Th e contribution s o f soi l leadan dundetermine dsource s o f leadremai nconstan t inestimatin g averag e dail y dietar y

leadintak e be twee n1974-1997 . Th e contributio no f component s o f dietar y leadintake , wit h th e exceptio no f th e INADIE T component , ar e combine dt o yiel dyear-specifi c estimate s o f INMISC . 

# 3 2P.3 9



### 3 . ABSLUNGrepresent s th e fractio no f inhale dleadtha t i s deposite d int o andsubsequentl y absorbe dthroug hth e lungs"int o th e bloodstream . In th e staf f paper , dat a o nparticl e siz e distribution s o f airborn e leadmass , collecte dfro

m variou s urban , rural , an dindustria l areas , ar e combine dwit h particl e respirator y depositio nan

dabsorptio ndat a t o calculat e th e absorp tio nrat e o f inhale dleadparticle s fo r a 2-yea r ol dchil dlivin g i ngeneralize d urban/rura l area s (1 5 t o 30% ) a s wel l a s nea r stationar y leadsource s (3 5 t o 9 1 0 60%) . Dat a wer e obtaine dfrom Landriga ne t al. , Dorne t al. , Cha nan d 1 1 1 2 1 3 Lippmann , Davidso nan dOsborn , an

dPhale ne t al . Age-relate ddifference s indepositio nefficiencie s estimate db y Phale n e t al . ar e no t larg e fo r th e relativel y smal l particl e diameter s tha t pre dominat e i ngeneralize durban/rura l areas . Therefore , th e rang e estimate d fo r a 2-yea r ol di s applie dt o al l age s o f youn g childre n( 0 t o 7 years ) living inthos e areas . Nea r point-sources , ther e i s generall y a greate r fractio no f coarse-mod e particle s (>2. 5 um ) i nth e ambien t air . Consequently , th e fractio no f particl e mas s tha t deposi t i nth e lung s o f youn g childre nan d ar e absorbe di s estimate dt o b e large r tha ntha t o f adults . Particl e deposi tio nefficiencie s fo r 5 y m particle s wer e derive dfro m Phale ne t al . a s a functio no f ag e andventilator y stat e (e.g. , lo

w activity , ligh t exertion ) t o calculat e averag e dail y depositio nrate s b y age : 

# S A 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 % depositio n

a t lo w activit y 

# 80 7 5 70 6 5 6 0 6 0 5 5 % depositio n

a t ligh t exertio n 

# 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 5 40 Averag e dail y

depositio nrat e 

# 7 5 70 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 5 5 0 18 35 3 5 3 5 Averag e respirator y deposition/absorptio nrate s fo r differen t age s livin g nea r leadpoin t source s wer e calculate dusin g th e equatio n [(CRD 5 

### - ARD 5 

### ) xPbPS 1 Q 

### ] + ARDP S 

## 33P.4 0



## wher e CRDj - i s th e averag e dail y depositio nrat e o f 5 y m particle s fo r a chil d 1 3 betwee n0 and6 year s (5 0 t o 75% , fro m Phale net'al . ) ; ARD c i s th e averag e dail y depositio nrat e o f 5 y m particle s fo r an18-yea r ol d(35 % fro m Phale n e t al.) ; PbPS , Q

## i s th e averag e percentag e o f leadparticl e mas s collecte d nea r poin t source s tha t i s comprise do f particle s tha t ar e large r tha n1. 0 9 1 0 y m i ndiamete r (5 0 t o 70% , fro m Landriga ne t al . an dDo m e t al . ) ; an

d ARDP S i s th e estimate drespirator y depositio nrat e fo r adult s livin g nea r lead poin t source s (2 0 t o 40% , estimate di nth e leadstaf f pape r ) . Th e calculate drange s wer e rounde dof f t o yiel dth e rate s liste din Tabl e 2 . I t shoul db e note dtha t depositio nefficiencie s fo r 5 y m particle s wer e combine dwit hdat a onth e percentag e o f leadparticle s large r tha n1 y m aroundpoin t source s t o calculat e poin t sourc e are a respirator y depositio n rates . Th e availabl e dat a relate dt o particl e siz e inth e publishe dliteratur e d o no t permi t a mor e direc t compariso nandcalculation . 4 . HOU T represent s th e amoun t o f time spen t outdoors . Amon g youn g children , thi s valu e varie s dependin g o nthei r stag e o f developmen t (i.e. , infant , toddler , preschool) , season , geographica l location , andfamil y behavior . Th e value s fo r a 2-yea r ol dchil di nTabl e 2 wer e obtaine dfro m th e 1 1 4 leadstaf f paper . Estimate s fo r othe r age s wer e develope db y Pope , wh o analyze dth e time spen t b y childre nindoors , outdoors , an dinmoto r vehicles , wit hrespec t t o seaso nandday o f week . 5 . VRESP , th e volume o f ai r respire deac hday , i s dependen t onage , bod y size , lung capacity , altitude , andactivit y o f th e child . Th e lea dstaf f 1 3 pape r estimate s a rang e o f 4 t o 5 m day fo r 2 - and3-yea r ol dchildre n base donvariou s source s (ICRP , Nutritio nFoundation , Phale ne t al . ) . Phale ne t al . determine daverag e ventilatio nrate s fo r male s an dfemales , a t differen t activit y

levels , fro

m birt hthroug hag e 1 8 fro m graphica l fits.o f 1 7 1 8 publishe dtabulate ddat a (Altma nandDitme r ' ) . Th e calculation s fo r lo w activit y level s wer e use dt o construc t th e range s o f dail y ventilatio nrate s i nTabl e 2 fo r childre n0 t o 6 years .



# 3 4P.4 1



## REFERENCE S 1 . U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency . Revie w o f th e Nationa l Ambien t Ai r Qualit y

Standard s fo r Lead : Assessmen t o f Scientifi c andTechnica l Information . Offic e o f Ai r Qualit y Plannin g andStandards , draf t staf f paper . Apri l 1985 . 2 . Alexander , F . W. , H . T . Delves , andB . E . Clayton . Th e Uptak e and Excretio nb

y Childre no f Lea dandOthe r Contaminants . In : Environmenta l Healt hAspect s o f Lea dProceedings , Internationa l Symposium . D . Barth , A . Berlin , R . Engel , P . Recht , andJ . Smeets , eds . Amsterdam , Th e Netherlands . Commissio no f th e Europea nCommunitie s Cente r fo r Informa tio nandDocumentation . Luxemborg . Octobe r 1972 . 3 . Ziegler , E . E. , B . B . Edwards , R . L . Jensen , R . R . Mahaffey , andS . J . Fomon . Absorptio nandRetentio no f Leadb y Infants . Pediatri c Research , 12:29-34 , 1978 . 4 . Kehoe , R . A . Th e Metabolis m o f LeadinMa ninHealt han dDisease : Th e Norma l Metabolis m

o f Lead . J . R . Inst . Publi c Healt hHyg. , 24:81-97 , 1961 . 5 . Rabinowitz , M. , G . W . Wetherill , andJ . D . Kopple . LeadMetabolis m in th e Norma l Human : Stabl e Isotop e Studies . Science , 1982:725-727 , 1973 . 6 . Rabinowitz , M . B. , J . D . Kopple , andG . W . Wetherill . Effec t o f Food Intak e an

dFastin g o nGastrointestina l LeadAbsorptio ninHumans . Am . J . Clin . Nutr. , 33:1784-1788 , 1980 . 7 . Battye , W . Predicte dMobil e Sourc e LeadImpac t fo r 199 0 and1995 . Technica l Memorandum

fro m GCA Corporation , Technica l Divisio nt o Mr . John Haine s an

dMr . Jef f Cohen , U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency , Researc h Triangl e Park , Nort hCarolina . Apri l 1985 . 8 . Persona l communicatio nbetwee nMr . Jef f Cohen , U.S . Environmenta l Pro tectio nAgency , Researc hTriangl e Park , Nort hCarolina , andMr . W . Coniglio , U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency , Offic e o f Drinkin g Water . Washington , D.C . Novembe r 14 , 1985 . 9 . Landrigan , P . J. , S . H . Geklbach , B . F . Rosenblum , J . M . Shoults , R . M . Candelaria , W . F . Barthel , J . A . Liddle , A . L . Smrek , N . W . Staelhing , and J . F . Sanders . Epidemi c LeadAbsorptio nNea r andOr e Smelter : Th e Rol e o f Particulat e Lead . N . Engl . J . Med. , 292:123-129 , 1975 . 

# 3 5P.4 2



## 10 . Dorn , C . R. , J . 0 . Pierce , P . E . Phillips , an dG . R . Chase . Airborn e Pb , Cd , CuConcentratio nb y Particl e Siz e Hea r a P bSmelter . Atmos . Environ. , 10:443-446 , 1976 . 11 . Chan , T . L. , andM . Lippman . Experimenta l Measurement s an dEmpirica l Modelin g o f th e Regiona l Depositio no f Inhale dParticle s inHumans . Am . Ind . Hyg . Assoc . J. , 41:399-408 , 1980 . 12 . Davidson , C . I. , andJ . F . Osborn . Th e Size s o f Airborn e Trac e Meta l Containin g Particles . In : Toxi c Metal s inth e Air . J . 0 . Nriag uan d C . I . Davidso neds . New York , New

York , 1984 . 13 . Phalen , R . F. , M . J . Oldham , C . B . Beaucage , an dT . T . Crocker . Postnata l Enlargemen t o f Huma nTracheobronchia l Airway s an dImplication s fo r Particl e Deposition . Anatomica l Record . Vol . 212 , 1985 . 14. Pope , A . A . Developmen t o f Activit y Pattern s fo r Populatio nExposur e t o Ozone . Memorandu

m fro m PE I Associates , Inc. , t o Mr . To m McCurdy , U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency , Researc hTriangl e Park , Nort hCarolina . Jun e 1985 . 15 . Internationa l Committe e o nRadiologica l Protectio n(ICRP) . Repor t o f th e Tas kGrou ponReferenc e Man : Repor t No . 23 . Pregamo nPress , New York , 1975 . 16 . Nutritio nFoundation , Inc . Assessmen t o f th e Safet y o f Leadan

dLead Salt s i nFood : A

Repor t o f th e Nutritio nFoundation' s Exper t Advisor y Committee , Washington , D.C . Th e Nutritio nCenter . 1982 . 17 . Altman , P . L. , an dD . S . Dittmer , eds . Respiratio nan dCirculation . Federatio no f America nSocietie s fo r Experimenta l Biology . Bethesda , Maryland . 1971 . 18 . Altman , P . L. , an dD . S . Dittmer , Eds . Biolog y Dat a Book , 2n

dEdition , Volume 1 . Federatio no f America nSocietie s fo r Experimenta l Biology . Bethesda , Maryland . 1972 .



# 3 6P.4 3



## APPENDI XB MULTIYEARLEA

DUPTAK E PROGRA

M ANDSAMPL E OUTPUT S

3 7P.4 4



### 3 0 RE M Arrav s accomodat e aa e group s 0 6 , year s o-f
- aq e 0-6 . suDarouM S i.- 6 4 0 RE M calenda r year s 1974-97(0-23 ) , uppe r & lowe r bounds(0-1 ) . an d 5 0 REi

v 

### i unaffecte d o r affecte d (0- 1 ) b ypoin t sourc e o f lead. . 6 0 DI M PFRACT(6) „ IORAT10(6,1,1) , HOUT(6,1 ) 7 0 D I ! 1 VRES P (6,1 ) , ABSLUN G ( 6 . , 1 , 1 ) G O D I r

l ABSD I E T (6.1) , ' I N D I E T (6 ) , I N M I S C (23 ) 9 0 D I M DUS T 1 ( 1 1 , 1 „ 1 ) „ DUST 2 ( 1 1 , 1 , 1 ) , , 1 NA D I E T (23 ) 10 0 DI M AI R (11) . OUTA Q (6 , 12 ) , INAI R (6). , BKG D (23) , CRALT(6 ) 1 . 1 0 D 1 M D J

! RT O ON S ( 6 „ 1 ) , ABS D I R T ( 6 „ 1 ) , I N D I R T (6 ) i 2 0 DI M GRP * ( 6 5 „ PREG(6 ) „ POP(6 ) , MONTH*(12) , MULT(6 ) 

### J . 3 0 T C D A¥* = DA ' I " E *: : L . f' • * -

» 0 I- f R* ( 10 ) s C L . S : L P RI NT 0 H R* (12 ) ! . ""i- 1 -..- 1 i'' KJ. I' M

1 i i-'iu'

' v 1 .<--} " • ' "" ' ** " """ ' ~ 

### 15 0 PRIN T TAB(12 ) " I 16 0 PRIN T TAD(12 ) " ! i 7 0 P I bI NT T AB ( 1 2 ) " I 0 0 I- l 0 R"I " MU L T I - V

E ARL E A D (J P T AK E P R u GRAI - 1 19 0 PRIN T TAB(12 ) " I Calculate s dail yuptak e bymont hove r lifetim e :t.e d ch i 1 dre n aq e yea r PRIN T TAB(12 )

b5 0 PRIN T TA B 26 0 RRIN T TA B " TAB(34 ) TODAY * TAB(70 ) "I " B t.;' " ac e a i e s a r i dAi r S t a n d a r c l s L) i vxs i c- n

•i •- ? ' i •i- - 

### y 0 PRIM J 

### LF.f;LF"* : "SPECIFICATION S FO R THI S ANALYSIS : " ^80-PRIN T "Ente r nam e o f stud yare a o r principa l poin t sourc e (i n CAPS ) INPU T SRC* ' :b? 0 PRIN T "Ente r nam e o f contro l scenari o t o b e analyze d (i n CAPES) : " : .0 0 IMFbb ! "Lowe r (0 ) o r upper' ( 1 ) boun d estimate ? " , EN D 9. 0 PRIN T "Pres s (Sh i f t-PrtSc ) t o prin t thes e specifications. "

... , i.. . •: J : -n.:.!•! . i.... ! •••(• ,\ c rt u . 1 ri . L n I 11J11 0 L-Ol w1 .I.!'JUCU : 

### PRiNT s PRIN T "Whic ha t th e followin g populatio n croup s shoul d nc: : urie d Pf t IN T"ap". a 1 ys i s ? I •;- : mor e tha n on e . qrou p pop u 1 at . i a ns w i 1 1 b e a«jde d , FRIN T"(Note; ; L.Pi- i = = lead-painte d house s SUE Z - secDndar ycccupation a 

### cm . .1 . d ; ; 

### ' H bu n s a u r i d , wi t hS 0 E ( " r MF- ; r r Childre n i n LPH\sound » w s bu t \ Y / 

### N) ? " „ GRP*(3 ) IN r: 

### 'U T " Childre n i n LPHNsound , n o SO E (Y/N) ? " , GRP * (4 ) 

### IMP:.;] " " Ch.; . Idre n i n non-LPH. . wit hSO E (Y/N) ? " . GRP * (5 ) INPU" T ' ' Ci-• ; i 1 ci r e n i n no n LPi- i „ n o SO E (Y/N ) ? " , GEP * (6 ) i.'NPi.J T"Shoul d chil d group s b e -furthe rsubdivide d -fa rthi s analysis ! '4,J U KKi N i 

### 46 0 INPUT " 47 0 INPU T

ci e i yij .Ll'MP U I " •0 0 INPUT " " :•. , 0 INPU' b "

. . .:.•.... •ri s .i . I-. I i i....r

- -v-1 •;... . I " - v. ; •'•AQ INPU T"The n pr e :;,:-;.-. . ! pr : ; Tl, j ••;• •p j . |;;; . ;.•: ; {

•> '". > , :- . .•• " y " AN! J PUP * bnte rfractio n o 

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### PRINT . LP* ; L.F'* M

### INPU T "Ente r ' as t yea r o f exposur e ( 4 digits); : " , YEA R IF YlF.AE

b 1993 0 O R YEAR > 199 7 THE NPRIN T "PROGRA M ONL Y FO R YEAR S O F EXPOSUR E ENDIN G I N1980-1997" s GOT O cO O

INPU T "D o yo u wan t t o substitut e a se t o f rura l backgroun d value s (Y/N ) " ; I F RURAL.. * = "N " O R RURAL*
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### NEX T Y , I NPU T 19:9 , ARRAY * 2 P R I N T LF' * , LF * , ARRAY * „ L.F *

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### INPU T #3 . ARRAY* ; PRINT " LF * , . LF* , ARRAY * , LF * FO R B D -

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### 1 "' 1 * * • * A;::

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### NEX T F B RE M »*?> • Concentratio n o f P b i n stree t dus t •»•#* INPUT " #3 , ARRAY* ; PRINT " L.F * .LF * „ ARRAY * . L.F * FO R F' S - 0 T' O 1 |

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### U1 U1 I NPU T # 3 , . DUS T i L(F' B „ P S . , B D ) s P R I NT " DUS T 1 (F' B , F' S „ BD ) ; NEX T B D ibEXT " P B Fi ' E " F i * z •>'.• C a nc e nt r a t i o na

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### ' B ••-••••

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R INPUT " A S # 1 OPE NFIL..E2 * F'O

R OUTPU T A S # 2 IF , E3F9 1 ) TFiENGOT O 251 0 ELS E GOSU B 2810 : RE NT o cie t trac t dat a I F BN D - 0 THE NBD * = "LOWEib " I F BN D •-•

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"UPPER " ! 1 i LL * ~ sKU * -i- " " i

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1 T O i'LX : TITLE * = " " + TITLE* : NEX T B X LPRIN T CHR*il2) ; LPRINT " '9 : LPRINT " " ; LPRIN T TITLE* . LPRIN T TAB(11 ) BD * " BOUN D ESTIMATE S O F DAIL Y LEA D UPTAK E B Y HON ' LPRIN T TAB(20 ) "FO R COHORT S I NCENSU S TRAC T " 5 TRACT * 1.. . P RI NT " " " 1 L P RI NT " " ; L P RIN"!"' ' — = ======== - = = == - ^ - ~= ==•-'• •-

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~ -::::~ : = = = = : =:: ~ = = = : ' ' 

### L.PRIN T " Aq e Dail yLea d Uptak e (uq/Jav ) b y LPRIN T YEA R " Po p Yea r 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

F O RA G ~ 6 I U0 STE P -il . L P ft' I N"I"' ! 

### " : L P ft I N"1" " " s L . P RI NT US I NG' ' T t # tt '' ; AG: ; ; ; L . P R I Nr L 

### • S I N0 ' # • POP(AG) ; L.A b1 Y -•

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II - CV * =

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G" ####t t " ; C Y ; FO R N O =

= 1 T O 1 2 IF(OUTAQ(Y,NO ) > CRVAL ) THE NP S = 1 ELS E P S --• = 0 G0 S U B 2 5 6 0 : R E N« • * * D L i s t Int e r p 0 1 a t i 0 n s * * • • * * G0 S! . i B 2 b ; / 0 : F i E i ¥ 

### ! * * * Up tak e C a 1 c r 1.1 a t i 0 n s •& * -

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### NF' X•! " N O Nt~. X"! " V PRIN T #2. , " "; : ;ML A

### 1 A G LPRINi"Cohort s i n thi s tabl a include; " j ,.. . ,,,..,. . :j. , j _

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- I .,:: . , ' —y\ V\ L ~ i •\ !... . F KI i T I L r H\ Uil ;..: -PJU P 1 C ! . , \)C: 

### I F GRP * (3 ) :.:

= "Y " O R GRP * (3 ) = "y " THE NLPRIN T " • LPH\soun d „ witt ; IF ' GRP * (4 ) ^

"Y " O R GRP * (4 ) = "v " THE NLPRIN T " LPHbsound, , n c S i I F GRP * (5 ; - "Y " O R GRP * (5 ) = "y " THE NLPRIN T " non- - i_PH . wit h: I F GRP * (6 ) =

"Y " O R GRP * (6 ) = = "y " THE NLPRIN T " non-LPH' , n o SO E P G ••• " P G -i-l ; LPRINT " TA B (6 1 ) : "F'aoe " s P G NEX T CT'RACI'b

i PEh *-s*--ii
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f calculation s -fo r censu s trac t *»- s L.I --'ft i N1 UhK*(l2); i s l-'KIN ! LP* ; L.I-*; : ''Calculation s comp.! . ste d „ " TODAY * : 

### = DATE* : NOW * = TINE*: : LPRIN T iODAY* ; " " ; ; NON * CLOS E # 1 ,.# 2 i~';••.}•',') 

### RE M RE M -MZ- * Dus t Interpolatio n subroutin e *•* * A Q = OUTAQ(Y,NO) ; I F A Q < 1. 5 THE NGOT O 262 0 DU S T'ST " :•=•

• DUS T 1 ( 1 0 , . P S . DN D ) + (DUS T ii . (11 , P S . BN D ) - DUS T 1 ( 1 0 , P S , BN D ? ) *- • (AG - ';. . . 5 ; .,2 5 : IFIFF i 0.2 5 = widt ho f las t A Q interva l 1 0 t o 11 . DUSTI N- DUST2 ( 10 , PS , BND ) ••!• • (DU S T 2 ( 1 1 „ P S „ BND ) - • DUST 2 ( 1 0 , P S , . BND ) ) "II "

- " : -----:------' - Mon t f- i " 

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### S O RIF N*•* « Uptak e Calc . -fo r Calenda r Year(CY ) , Yea r o f Aq e (AG ) „ i b 9 0 RE M 0 0 I V - - C Y 1974 ; RE M Conver t cal. , yea r t o inde;- ; v e ari l 0 A Q = OUTAQ(Y,NO ) 2 0 i- i = I- l 0 U"I " ( Y „ B ND ) : I Q = 1 0 R AT1 0 ( Y . , P S , B ND ? 3 0 WA Q ••

= (I T » A Q -i

- (24-H ) * 1 0 # AQ ) / 2 4 

### 4 0 UPLUN G = VRESP(Y,BND ) * WA Q * ABSLUNG(Y,PS,BND ) 5 O UP D I E T - ( 1 I MF l 1 3 C ( I Y ) + I NAD I E T ( I Y ) ) * AB i bD I E T ( Y „ B ND ) 6 0 WDIR T - (i- i * DUST'S"! " + (1 2 - !-l ) * DUSTIN ) / 1 2 

### 7 0 UPDIR T =

= DIRTCONS(Y.BND ) * WDIR T * ABS D IR T (Y , BND ) S O TDL U' = UPLUN G -i
- UPDIE T •+

• UPDIR T 9 0 R E TURP I Month(HO I

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### # -«• # * * # « i r<i..'. . I i i'!\;::-- i nt t -

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•- = 1 T O 6 : INPU T #1 „ PftEG(GF') : NEXT " GP : RE M •* * Dat a no t u ; PRIN T LF * ; : "Censu s trac t ": : CTRAC T " = " ; TRACT* : " Chil d poos;;" : FO R A G TM 0 T O 6 F'O P (AG ) -

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### INPU T#1 , AQ IM

s AQI N- - AQI N/ 100 0 KF.P I Lio n ver t nanoararris/cu „ m . t o m i croqraitis/c u r . fn
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### OUTA Q (Y2 „ MO ) =

= MUL"i"(Y2 ) * AQI N+ BKGD(YY ) NEX T Y 2 NEX T N OP.4 9

fc. UL F 2 •c- / DITJ T1 ,2/ U LCWrf t 1* .
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## APPENDI XC BIOKINETIC S PROGRA

M ANDSAMPL E OUTPUT S

5 4P.6 1



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- Medicine , 1 2 4 0 D I i i CBl.BO (84 ) , CBOB L (8 4 ; , SCAL E (S4 ) , . FACTO R (34 ) 5 9 D I b i G U( 6 ) „ CU.. . I GU T (6 ) 6 0 D I MT B v6 . , 34 ) , T C (8 4 ) , TB O (8 4 ) , T L (84 ) „ T K (84 ) , W T (84 ) 70 D I MCBL.UR (84 ) . , WT B (34 ) , WTB O \ 84 ) , G I (84 ) , C L I G U(84 ) , W'T F A C (84 ) 8 0 DI M UPTAK E ( 6 „ 12 ) , HIGH6(260„6) , SUM:!.2M(6) „ SUHYRC6), , SIJIIH O ( 6 , 12 ) 9 0 DI M CGR0UP<6) , CROP(6) , SUMHI(6) , HIGHPB(260,6) , GE0M<6 ) x0 0 .0 1 M 1 " R AV

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i 12 9 " i : i 70 PRIN T TA B (12 ) " ! .:.3 0 PRIN T TA B (12 ) " ! 19 0 PRIN T TAB(12 ) " I 20 0 PRIN T TAB(12 ) "\" 21 0 PRIN T TAB(12 ) " ; bb; 3 PRIN T TA B (12 ) " 1 Calculate s end-o- f —n.ont hb1 ooc l lea d C o n c e n t r a t i o n ;s t o r c . hi c l r e n a qe <z> vear s 

### 'A B (33 ) TODAY * TA B (70 ) "! " Strategie s an d Ai r Standard s Di ' PRIN T i....F*;LF* : "SPECIFICATION S FO R THI S ANALYSIS : i INPU T SRC * 

### 29 0 PRIN T "Ente r nam e o t contro l scenari o t o b e analyze d (i n CAPS) ; INPU T CTRL * 27 0 INPU T "Ente r las t yea r o t chil d exposur e ( 4 digits) : " , YEA R 2S 0 I F YEAR 9 198 0 O R YEAR>199 7 THE NPRIN T "PROGRA M ONL Y FO R 1980-1997 " 2 9 0 I NP U1 " ! 

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L . 

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### DAT A3 , 3 9 5 « 5 , 5 . 1 0 , 1 0 FO R IX f 0 T O 6 : REA D CLIGUT(IX) : NEX T I X
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### GI(IX) = GU(KX ) NEX T I X RE M -S-S-

* Bod yweigh t wit haq e "-- DAT A4,5,6,6.7,7.4,3,8.5,9,9.2,9.6,10.10. 4 DAT A12.12,12,12,13,13,13,13,14,14,14,1 4 DAT A15,15,15,15,16,16„16,16,17,17,17,1 7 DAT A18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,1 8 DAT A19,19,19,1 9 „'l 9 „ 19,19,19,19,19,19 , 1 9 DAT A21.21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,2 1 DAT A23,23,'23,23,23,23,24,24,24,24,25,25 : RE M Adde d lin e

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### REA D WT(IX ) 9T B (IX)
- SO*-N T (IX ) RE M »•»•«

- Us e mitchel i C a dat a an d divid e b y.3 7 -for as h weigh t DAT A3 0 . 4 0 , 4 5 , 5 0 . 5 5 „ 6 0 , 6 5 , 7 5 . 8 0 , 3 5 , 9 2 , 10 0 DAT A10 5 . 1 0 5 , 1 1 0 , .1 . 1 5 , 1 2 0 , 1 2 2 , 125, , 13 0 , 13 5 , 137 , 14 0 ,14 5 DAT A1 5 0 , 15 1 „ 15 5 , 1 5 7 , 1 6 0 , 162,165,167, 1 7 0 , 1 7 3 , 1 7 5 , i . 3 0 DAT A180„182,185.185„188.190,190,192,195,196,193,20 0 DAT' A20 0 , 20 3 , 20 5 , 20 6 , 20 7 „ 21 0 , 21 0 . 21 3 . , 21 4 , 21 5 „ 21 7 , , 22 0 DAT A22 0 ,221 , 22 3 , 22 5 . 22 6 , 23 0 . 23 0 , 23 1 „ 23 2 , 23 5 , , 23 6 , 2 4 0 DAT' A24 1 „ 24 3 , 24 5 . 24 7 , 25 0 , , 2:5 1 , 25 4 , 25 5 , 25 7 , 26 0 . 26 2 . 265 : REP' I 

### Adde d h;. e
'bbf' i •'".•

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### REA D WTBO(IX ) 9 7 9 0 (IX ) - Wl'B O ( I X ) / . 3 7 NEX T I X
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### PRIN T LF$; ' "Begi n calculation s fo r eac hcohor t withi n censu s tracts: " OPE NFILE * FO R INPU T A S # 1 FO R CTRAC T - 1 T O 999 9 C T = CTRAC T I F EO F ( 1 ) "i

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i k lin e precede s aq e g r o u p data . FO R Y : 

### = : 

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J F : ' ( AG ) ; C P 0 P (AG) ; C Y E AR : : 

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R I N"i " UP "i " AK E ( Y „ M 0 ) : ' < NEX T M O j Nib X T Y I' i PRIN T LF*:!....!-'* : : GOSU B 1190 : RE M Cohor t calc . to r aq e grou p A G i NEX T A G

.. ' PRIN T L.F*;;LF * 

### ) GOSU B 1900 : RE M -ZH-4>
- 

### Outpu t Tabl e -for 1 censu s trac t .' ; NEX T CT R AC T b GOSU B 2590 : 19EM *•* * Outpu t table s require d 10/11/85 . **•><• * ) NOW * • * TIME* : LPRIN T CHR*(12) ; LF* ; LF* s TODAY* : " " : NOW * 3 93"! " f t F : :



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### ENDM O »

= ( AG-i- 1 i •»-

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M **•<• • bloo d «•* * DBLOO D = INJEC T •+ • (LOG(2)/CLIGUCIX))*TLIVER*G1(IX ) DBLOO D = DBLOO D - CBLB O ( IX ) *TBLGG D - CBLLIs-TBLOO D • - CBLK I .\'TBLOG

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= T'BON E -i - DBON E "i"B(AGX , IX ) = Cl'BLOGD / WT'B(IX) ) * 100 : RE M Conver t uq/m l t o uq/d i i PRIN TUSIN G "###.##" : TB(AGX,IX ) 1.5S 0 I F I X= 3 6 THE N TRLVL.36(AG ) = T B (AGX , IX ) .1.59 0 RE M *•* * 1 6 0 0 I F (GMQ*^"N " O R 6MQ*="n" ) THE N GOT O 164 0 .i . C> -I . • •

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i'. F (AC<>6 ) THE N GOT O 170 0 PGPW T"'

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AG % , IX ) > I- l I G i- i 6 ( C "i ' „ YR X ) ) 1 " i- l E N HI G I- i 6 ( C ! " „ ' SU M 1 2 M (YRX ) = : EiU M 12 M (YRX ) - i I' D (AG X. IX )



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= SUMH I ( Y 2 ) •+

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- CRO P (AG ) *LO G( YEA R AVG ) TRAVG6CY2 ) -

- YEARAV G TO T 6 - = T0T 6 +

CRO P (AG ) FO R Y2-< > T O 3 : SU M = SU M + HIGH 6 (CT , Y2 ) s NEX T Y 2 SUMM A- SUMM A+ CRO P (A Gzs-LO G(SUM/4 ) . RE M sum/ 4 - ava SU M ^ 0 F'O R Y2= 4 T O 6 : SU M •• - SU M •••

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- CRO P (AG ) * LO G AV G NEX T A G GEOM Q = EX P (N'TSUMQ/'TRPOPQ ) s WT'SUM Q TM 0 : RE M Rese t -for ne;- : t: censu s t r (..PRIN T "Popu l a t i on-We i gh t ee l Geometri c Mea n Cone , during" ; (Y E AR-l) ; LP R I N T U S I N G " ### , # " ; GEOMQ ; : LP R I N T " u q/ c i I „ " RE M •*-*•:*

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i c I'iea

n o- f A n nu a il

. Av o . C0 n c s. , f 0 r t he 84-m0 n t hf i0!" . 0 r ••: LPRIN T " Durin qYears" : (YEAR-6) : "-" ; (YEAR-3) : " = " ; L! ::; 

### ' Rii i iMT ' Uiii i I NG! 

### ' tt # # „ #' ' : "1 " RGMA; : L . P RI NT ' ' ua / d ii . ' ' FO R Y2- 4 T O 6 ; TRSUM B = : 

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### 0 : RE M rese t -for nex t censu s trac t LPRIN T " Durin g Years" ; (YEAR-2) ; "~" s (YEAR) : "•--" ; L.P R 1 N' T U S 'i

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. TLE* ; LF* ; LF* ; LF* ; LF* ; TA B (33 ) ; " Ta b1 e 1 . " LPRIN T TA B (13 ) "GEOMETRI C MEAN S O F ";BD* : " BOUN D ESTIMATE S O F END--OF--MONT H LPRIN T TAB(16 ) "BLOO D LEA D CONCENTRATION S FO R AL L 84-MONT H COHORT S

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= 0 . T O 6 

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• : O 2 C i I... . P RI N "I " I " AB ( 2 0 ) " M e a n B 1 o o d Le a d " : : 0 I S C ; i.. . F - RI N "I " TAB ( 2 0 ) " Yea rCo n ce n t ra t i o n ( u q / d 1 ) " Y--• 0 T O 6

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t # #. , #' ' : , 

### 1EAN 2 L!- ' R I NT C H R * ( 1 2 ) : L F *; ; L F * 

### LPRIN T TAB(17 ) "SUMMAR Y DAT AFO R S4-M0NT H COHORTS " LPRIN T TITLE* : LF*:LF * FO R Y2-- 0 T O 6; ; GE0M(Y2 ) = EX P (SUMH I (Y2 ) /TOT6 5 : NEXT " Y 2 LPRIN T TA B (10 ) " Tabl e 3, . Stud yAre a Mean s (b ) o f Highes t ' LPRIN T TAB(10 ) " End-a9-Mont hBloo d Lea d Concentratio n byCohor t Aq e " LPRIN T TAB(10 ) " I Cohor t I Calenda r i Bloo d Lea d I " LPRIN T TA B (10 ) " ! Aq e (Years ) I Yea r ! Concentratio n (uo/d.' L ) I "

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### Ccncentrati o n ( u 3 / qI ) ; (YEAR-3 ) i, " TAB(10 ) " 1 0 3 I" ; (YEAR-6) ; USIN G "###.,#" ; GE0MA ; ; LPRIN T " I " . TA B (10 ) " I 4- 6 I" ; (YEAR-2 ) ; "•-" ; YEAR ; " i " : USIN G "tttttt.tt" ; GEOMB: ; LPRIN T " I " LF*:LF * : 

### = = EXP(SUMM36/T0T6 ) "I" AB (10 ) " P o p u 1 a t i o n - we i qht e d Ge o .T I 

### e t r :i . c Me a n C o n c e n t r a t : • o n " TA B (10 ) "i n 36t hmont ho- f lif e -" ; i.Ji b IN G ' ' -ii

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. DURIN G 197 9 = POPULATIO N WSIG H TC D G10 M ETRI C *r*> CON C . IH i 3 6TI ! .'1 0 13. 4 UG/D1 , Jm-. UG/D 1 G E C M ETRI C MEA N DURIN G YG4K S O F ANNUA LAVG
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~ 2 6 •Z

U C ; > D 1 TH E 84-MONT H COHOR TP.7 8



### AN D BUSIN G YSAKe--1-9-?a-T93 ' ?0. 3 uG/ M HIGHES TEND-OF-MONT H ELOO D LEA D OCCURRIN G IN . 198 0 B YAG E GROUP : 

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