# Elarbara 

# Atk

i 

# nson

Technology and ar et Assessment Group Energy alys s Program 

# Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

1 

# OL TAR P 00 

# Resear h 

# ummary Barbara Atkinson Technology and Market Assessment Group Energy Analysis Program Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

1

# ",ograms 

# !enti fled

• EPA Green Lights/Energy Star Buildings 

# FEMP Procurement Challenge

• FEMP Federal Relighting Initiative

• EPAct Voluntary Luminaire Program NEMA Re-Electrify America Utility Incentive Programs 

# • ASHRAE/IES Building Code 

# Pro rams Id ntified
• EPA Green Lights/Energy Star Buildings 

# • FEMP Procurement Challenge 

# .• FEMP Federal Relighting Initiative 

# • EPAct Voluntary Luminaire Program • NEMA 

# Re-Electrify America • Utility Incentive Programs • ASHRAE/IES Building Code

2

# p p

# 1 al 

# upplemental Information

3

# 'EPA Green



# Energy Star Buildings Data - Electronic Ballasts Installed 1992 1996 - Square Footage Retrofi

## t 1992 1996 - Projected Square Footage Retrofit 1997 - 2015 

# Res

# ults - Projected Electronic 

# B allasts Installed 1997 - 2015 

# Note s 

## - Projections after the year 2000 reflect EPA's estimates of where the market can go EPA Programs Research and Development Utility D SM Programs Market Forces 

# 4 

# • Data 

# EPA 

# Green i·

# hts 

# Energy tar Buildings

- Electronic Ballasts Installed 1992

- 1996

- Square Footage Retrofit 1992

- 1996

- Projected Square Footage Retrofit 1997

- 2015 

# • Results

- Projected Electronic Ballasts Installed 1997

- 2015 

# • Notes

- Projections after the year 2000 reflect EPA's estimates ofwhere the market can go EPA Programs Research and Development Utility DSM Programs Market Forces 

# 4

# w"-le" I j" I o d L* g'ifing S • Data

- Federally-Owned Floor Space, Commercial and Industrial Buildings

- Potential ]Electronic Ballasts Installed, Federally Owned Leased SpaceEstimated Ballasts Installed for FederallyOwned Space
5 

# FE P Pro rams FRI ( ew and Reno.vated Lighting Systems)
• Data

- Federally-Owned Floor Space, Commercial and· Industrial Buildings

- PotentialElectronic Ballasts Installed, Federally Owned and Leased Space. 

# • Results

rrrrrr

# ~ 

# - Estimated Ballasts Installed for FederallyOwned Space
5

# Procurement Recommendations

(Replacement Ballasts and Luminaires)

• Data - Sales from DLA Catalog 

# - Estimated Sales from GSA Federal Supply Schedule

• Results - Estimated Potential Replacement Ballasts Affected 

# Issues

- 

# FEMP has 

# no h i 

# stori

# cal dat

# a on FRI i

# mpacts 

# - Limited data on percent electronic ballast share total federal replacement purchases 

# E 

# P Pro rams Procurement Recommendations (Replacement Ballasts and Luminaires)
• Data

- Sales from DLA Catalog

- Estimated Sales from GSA Federal Supply Schedule 

# • Results

- Estimated Potential Replacement Ballasts Affected 

# • Issues

- FEMP has no· historical data on FRJ impacts

- Limited data on percent electronic ballast share oftotal federal replacement purchases 6

# Percent Electronic Ballasts in New Luminaires

Sold dropped from Bureau of Census data request



# • Next Steps? 

# aluntary • • 

# Uffiln 

# Ire ra r Data

- Percent Electronic Ballasts in ew Luminaires Sold dropped from Bureau ofCensus data
. request 

# • ext Steps? 

# !!rrst 7

# NEMA

• Data - Educational program with business approach - No projections of impact on electronic ballast sales 

# Next Steps - Monitor program impacts or projections 

# Re-El ctrify II 

# m fl 

# a

• Data

- Educational program with business approach

- No projections ofimpact on electronic ballast sales 

# • Next Steps

- Monitor program impacts or projections

8

# Ut

- No historical data on electronic ballasts installed through DSM programs - No estimates of future impacts of utility incentive programs, ESCOs, etc.



# xt Steps? • 

# tility In entive Pro r m Data

- No historical data on electronic ballasts installed through DSMprograms - 0 

# estimates offuture impacts ofutility incentive programs, ESCOs, etc. 

# ext Steps?

9

# • Data

- none available 

# Issues - Minor effect from present code (90.1) - Revised code impacts expected after 2005 - Only affects new construction 

# Next Steps? 10 

# AH Ell Building Cod s
• Data

- none available 

# • Issues

- Minor effect from present code (90.1)

- Revised code impacts expected after 2005

- Only affects new construction 

# • Next Steps?

10

# IStS Percent Lighting Demand t by Efficient Fluorescent Technologies



# • EPA Green Lights & Energy Star Buildings

• EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1997 Technology Cases: - Reference Case 

# - 1997 Technology - Advanced Technology Cost Reduction - High Technology

11- , 

# Comparison ofBas ase Forecasts

, . 

# Percent Lighting Demand Met 

# by Efficient Fluorescent Technologies



# • EPA Green Lights Energy Star Buildings

• EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1997 Technology Cases:

- Reference Case

- 1997 Technology

- Advanced Technology Cost Reduction

- High Technology



# 11'

# GG

Summary of Research on Voluntary Programs Impacts on Electronic Ballast Sales Barbara Atkinson Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

17 March 1997 The Department of Energy is interested in quantifying the impacts of various voluntary programs on the market for efficient fluorescent ballasts. The resulting estimates will serve as a background for the base case assumptions used in projecting national energy savings. , 

### Quantifying the impacts of voluntary programs is a challenge due to several factors: ® The lack of data on most programs ® The influence of the various programs on the market behavior of consumers compared with their.market behavior without the programs. ® The interaction between voluntary programs and building codes (which are regulatory but not component-based). The objective of this research is two-fold: ® To estimate the impacts of various voluntary programs on electronic ballast sales during 1992 through 1996, and to project the future impacts. 

### ® To compare projections of efficient lighting penetrations from several sources. This memo summarizes progress to date on these topics. 1. Electronic Ballast Sales The total U. S. fluorescent ballast sales , for ballasts- covered in the DoE analysis , are listed below. The percentage of sales estimated to be electronic ballasts is also listed. Total Electronic Ballast Sales Ballast Percentage 1993 62 million 37% 1994 62 million 42% 1995 66 million 50% 

### A. EPA Green Lights and Energy Star Buildings Programs 

### Summary ofResearch on Voluntary Programs Impacts on Electronic Ballast Sales Barbara Atkinson Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 17 March 1997 

### The Department ofEnergy is interested in quantifYing the impacts ofvarious voluntary programs on the market for efficient fluorescent ballasts. The resulting estimates will serve as a background for the base case assumptions used in projecting national energy savings. QuantifYing the impacts ofvoluntary programs is a challenge due to several factors:
• The lack ofdata on most programs
• The influence ofthe various programs on the market behavior ofconsumers compared with theirmarket behavior without the programs.
• The interaction between voluntary programs and building codes (which are regulatory but not component-based). The objective ofthis research is two-fold:

.. To estimate the impacts ofvarious voluntary programs on electronic ballast sales during 1992 through 1996, and to project the future impacts.
• To compare projections ofefficient lighting penetrations from several sources. This memo summarizes progressto date on these topics. I. Electronic Ballast Sales 

### The total U.S. fluorescent ballast sales, for ballasts-covered in the DoE analysis, are listed below. The percentage ofsales estimated to be electronic ballasts is also listed. Total Electronic Ballast Sales Ballast Percentage 1993 62 million 37% 1994 62 million 42% 1995 66 miflion 50% "-

- A. 

### EPA Green Lights and Energy Star Buildings Programs 

# ---The Green Lights Program, Marketing and Implementation Data Base (Program Snapshot) shows

the total sales of electronic ballasts for each year from 1992 - 1996. From EPA's forecast for the revised Climate Change Action Plan', we have the historical and projected building floor space (in square feet) retrofit from 1992 - 2015. From these EPA estimated the electronic ballasts that will be used to retrofit this floor space from 1997 - 2015. Note that these are EPA's estimates of the future market penetrations for electronic ballasts. They account for past, present, and future drivers including the Green Lights and Energy Star Buildings programs, the success of past R&D in developing the technologies, utility DSM in jump-starting the market, and natural market penetration. EPA projects that about 7 percent of commercial and industrial floor space will be retrofit by the year 2000. By the year 2015, this increases to about 48 percent offloor space. Green Lights and utility rebates : From the Green Lights Program Database , based on reports submitted by Green Lights program participants on completed upgrades , we calculate that about 35% of building retrofit projects enjoyed utility rebates
. However, the database does not link these rebates specifically to electronic ballasts
. To answer the question of whether the lack of utility rebates will cause fewer ballast retrofits, EPA states that the internal rate of return for electronic ballast retrofits is typically well over the Green Lights IRR criterion of 20%. Therefore, EPA assumes that the retrofit rate will be unaffected as utility rebates diminish. We have been unable to locate an independent assessment of the Green Lights program's projections, dropout rates, etc
. EPA asks its partners to retrofit 90% of their recruited floor space, and estimates that they will convert all but 10% of this . Since partners pledge to retrofit their floor space within 5 years , the first partners to join the program in 1991 and 1992 are just finishing their upgrades
. EPA attributes their higher dropout rates to early emphasis on recruitment rather than assistance and follow-up. 

### B. Federal Energy Management Program For background, we estimate that about 2 million ballasts are sold per year for federal buildings, with 1
.35 million for replacement of existing stock turnover
.. The remaining 0.65 million are for new construction or renovation
. These numbers represent the percent of the total estimated ballast stock that belongs to the federal sector . In 1995, there were a total of 560 million ballasts in the commercial and industrial sectors from the COMMEND base case run for the 1996 draft report. With a 12.5 year life (45000 hours/3600 hours), 45 million of these are needed for replacement
. The remaining 21 million are for renovation and new buildings
. The General Services Administration reports that for 1995, federally
-owned commercial floor space is 1.99 billion square feet and industrial floor space is 0.08 billion square feet . This is about 3% of the national total
. The federal ballast estimates represent 3% of the total national ballast figures described above.

'EPA projections have been revised due to funding cuts for program budgets. The Green Lights Program, Marketing and Implementation Data Base (program Snapshot) shows the total sales ofelectronic ballasts for each year from 1992

- 1996. From EP A's forecast for the revised Climate Change Action Planl, we have the historical and projected building floor space (in square feet) retrofit from 1992

- 2015. From these EPA estimated the electronic ballasts that will

- - be used to retrofit this floor space from 1997

- 2015. Note that these are EPA's estimates ofthe future market penetrations for electronic ballasts. They account for past, present, and future drivers including the Green Lights and Energy Star Buildings programs, the success ofpast R&D in developing the technologies, utility DSM in jump-starting the market, and natural market penetration. EPA projects that about 7 percent ofcommercial and industrial floor space will beretrofit by the year 2000. By the year 2015, this increases to about 48 percent offloor space. Green Lights and utility rebates: From the Green Lights Program Database, based on reports submitted by Green Lights program participants on completed upgrades, we calculate that about 35% ofbuilding retrofit projects enjoyed utility rebates. However, the database does not link these rebates specifically to electronic ballasts. To answer the question ofwhether the lack of utility rebates will cause fewer ballast retrofits, EPA states that the internal rate ofreturn for electronic ballast retrofits is typically well over the Green Lights IRR criterion of20%. Therefore, EPA assumes that the retrofit rate will be unaffected as utility rebates diminish. We have been unable to locate an independent assessment ofthe Green Lights program's projections, dropout rates, etc. EPA asks its partners to retrofit 90% oftheir recruited floor space, and estimates that they will convert all but 10% ofthis. Since partners pledge to retrofit their floor space within 5 years, the first partners tojoin the program in 1991 and 1992 arejust finishing their upgrades. EPA attributes their higher dropout rates to early emphasis on recruitment rather than assistance and follow-up. B. Federal Energy Management Program For background, we estimate that**abou~** 2 million ballasts are sold per year for federal buildings, with 1.35 million for replacement ofexisting stock turnover.. The remaining 0.65 million are for new construction or renovation. These .numbers represent the percent ofthe total estimated ballast stock that belongs to the federal sector. In 1995, there were a total of560 million ballasts in the commercial and industrial sectors from the COMMEND base case run for the 1996 draft report. With a 12.5 year life (45000 hours/3600 hours), 45 million ofthese are needed for replacement. The remaining 21 million are for renovation and new buildings. The General Services Administration reports that for 1995, federally-owned commercial floor space is l.99 billion square "feet and industrial floor space is 0.08 billion square feet. This is about 3% ofthe national total. The federal ballast estimates represent 3% ofthe tot81 national ballast figures described above.

lEP A projections have**b~** revised due to funding cuts for program budgets.1. Federal Procurement Challenge

This program provides product energy-efficiency recommendations or voluntary specifications for fluorescent ballasts and fluorescent luminaires. "-Building energy managers may purchase ballasts directly from the Defense Logistics Agency (Defense General Supply Center) catalog or from GSA Federal Supply Schedule contractors. However, they often purchase through a service contract with a lighting management company. For a retrofit project that goes out to bid, their contractors purchase ballasts from a variety of sources. Only a small fraction of these ballasts are purchased through the DLA lighting catalog, which is the only source for which we can obtain a detailed breakdown of ballast sales. There is no system for tracking purchases from most of the other sources. LBNL has estimated the number of magnetic and electronic ballasts sold through DLA under present market conditions. However, most of these are already electronic ballasts, indicating a modest potential impact on these sales from the Procurement Recommendations. The ballast sales from the DLA catalog for 1994 and 1995 were: 1994 49.2 thousand 1995 75.6 thousand 

### We cannot assume that the DLA market shares are representative of other federal purchases. For ballast purchases through contractors listed on the GSA Federal Supply Schedule, we can indirectly estimate the total ballast sales from the dollar value of those sales. The total ballast sales, in dollar value, for three years are: 1994 $104,684 1995 $147,296 1996 $ 64,326 

### Based on:average ballast prices from the DLA catalog, this implies that the number of ballasts sold through the Federal Supply Schedule for each year was less than 5000. For ballasts purchased by contractors for federal buildings, there is no straightforward method of tracking the magnitude of these ballast purchases or the percentage that are electronic ballasts. As shown by the DLA and GSA figures above, it is difficult to track the large majority of the 2 million ballasts sold to the federal sector each year. As a first cut, we assume that one-half of the 1.35 million replacement ballasts are now magnetic ballasts and would become electronic through the Procurement Recommendations. The impacts begin in 1998 and continue for 7 years, after which the ballasts in the stock that were already electronic begin to be replaced naturally with electronic ballasts. 2. Federal Relighting Initiative 

### There has been no evaluation of the impacts of the FRI program on building retrofits. The 1. Federal Procurement Challenge This program provides product energy-efficiency recommendations or voluntary specifications for fluorescent ballasts and fluorescent luminaires. --Building energy managers may purchase ballasts directly from the Defense Logistics Agency (Defense General Supply Center) catalog or from GSA Federal Supply Schedule contractors. However, they often purchase through a service contract with a lighting management company. For a retrofit project that goes out to bid, their contractors purchase ballasts from a variety ofsources. Only a small fraction ofthese ballasts are purchased through the DLA lighting catalog, which is the only source for which we can obtain a detailed breakdown ofballast sales. There is no system for tracking purchases from most ofthe other sources. LBNL has estimated the number ofmagnetic and electronic ballasts sold through DLAunder present market conditions. However, most ofthese are already electronic ballasts, indicating a modestpotential impact on these sales from the Procurement Recommendations. The ballast sales from the DLA catalog for 

### 1994 and 

### 1995 were: 

### 1994 49.2 thousand 

### 1995 75.6 thousand We cannot assume that the DLA market shares are representative ofother federal purchases. For ballast purchases through contractors listed on the GSA Federal Supply Schedule, we can indirectly estimate the total ballast sales from the dollar value ofthose sales. The total ballast sales, in dollar value, for three years are: 

### 1994 $104,684 1995 $147,296 1996 $ 64,326 Based on average ballast prices from the DLA catalog, this implie$ that the number ofballasts sold through the Federal Supply Schedule for each year was less than 

### 5000. For ballasts purchased by contractors for federal buildings, there is no straightforward method of tracking the magnitude ofthese ballast purchases or the percentage that**~e** electronic ballasts. As shown by the DLA and GSA figures above, it is difficult to track the large majority ofthe 2 million ballasts sold to the federal sector each year. As a first cut, we assume that one-halfofthe 

### i.35 million replacement ballasts are nowmagnetic ballasts and would become electronic through the Procurement Recommendations. The impacts begin in 

### 1998 and continue for 

### 7 years, after which the ballasts in the stock that were already electrmrlc begin to be replaced naturally with electronic ballasts. 2. Federal Relighting Initiative There has been no evaluation ofthe impacts oftheFRI program on building retrofits. The 

# --program concentrated on training and specifications . A survey of a subset of those in the training

courses will be performed, but this will not be specific to the impact on specific technologies. In 1993 , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory prepared "Estimate of Federal Relighting Potential and Demand for Energy

-Efficient Lighting Products," a study of potential impacts of FRI. This study included both federally owned and leased space, from the GSA Summary Report of Real Property Owned by the United States ( 1989). Since we cannot assume that the federal government would be able to retrofit its federally

-leased space, we have calculated the federallyowned floor space using separate figures from GSA for 1995 for federally

-owned and federallyleased space, as described in the first paragraph of this section
. About 90% percent of federally owned and leased space is federally

-owned. The report estimates the potential sales of 22 million electronic ballasts if all retrofit projects were implemented immediately
. Assuming that 90% of these are for federally

-owned space, the total potential is 19
. 8 million ballasts. FRI and utility rebates : The report projects ballast retrofits under two scenarios, one with utility rebates at 1992 levels projected through 1995 , and the other scenario with higher rebate levels due to FRI
. However, FRI did not track the actual retrofits made through the program during these years
. Also, utility rebates are expected to diminish from 1996 on. In the absence of verifying data, we simply use the "FRI Scenario " estimates for ballasts installed from 1992

- 1.996
. Taking 90% of these values gives a total of 10
. 5 million. The remaining 9.3 million ballasts are apportioned equally through 2002. C. Utility Incentive Programs Surprisingly, there has been no study on the total electronic ballast sales due to utility DSM programs. We have contacted EPRI, Lighting Research Institute , Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and LBNL ' s Utility Group , all of which inform us that no such estimates have been compiled. 

### To attempt to estimate this, a proposed research project would extract data from the few utility DSM reports with enough detail on ballast rebates
. For, these programs , we could calculate the average percentages of total DSM spending on lighting, and the number of electronic ballasts that each percentage point implies
. We could then make the assumption that these utility rebate programs were representative of all utility programs , and using EIA

-data on lighting DSM expenditures, estimate the national electronic ballast number. There are also no estimates of future utility DSM levels
. Various sources agree that the rebates are decreasing dramatically
. Other utility incentive programs, such as procurement, support of energy service companies, etc, may pick up some of the slack. However, in the current competitive utility environment, there are no estimates of the magnitude of these programs. program concentrated on training and specifications. A survey ofa subset ofthose in the training courses will be performed, but this will not be specific to the impact on specific technologies. In 1993, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory prepared "Estimate ofFederal Relighting Potential and Demand for Energy-Efficient Lighting Products," a study ofpotential impacts of FRI. This study included both federally owned and leased space, from the GSA Summary Report ofReal Property Owned by the United States (1989). Since we cannot assume that the federal government would be able to retrofit its federally-leased space, we have calculated the federallyowned floor space using separate figures from GSA for 1995 for federally-owned and federallyleased space, as described in the first paragraph ofthis section. About 90% percent offederallyowned and leased space is federally-owned. The report estimates the potential sales of22 million electronic ballasts ifall retrofit projects were implemented immediately. Assuming that 90% ofthese are for federally-owned space, the total potential is 19.8 million ballasts. FRI and utility rebates: The report projects ballast retrofits under two scenarios, one with utility rebates at 1992 levels projected through 1995, and the other scenario with higher rebate levels due to FRI. However, FRI did not track the actual retrofits made through the program during these years. Also, utility rebates are expected to diminish from 1996 on. In the absence ofverifying data, we simply use the "FRI Scenario" estimates for ballasts installed from 1992

- 1996. Taking 90% ofthese values gives a total of 19.5 million. The remaining 9.3 million ballasts are apportioned equally through 2002.
C. Utility Incentive Programs Surprisingly, there has been no study on the total eleCtronic ballast sales due to utility DSM programs. We have contacted EPRI, Lighting Research Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and LBNL's Utility Group, all ofwhich inform us that no such estimates have been compiled. To attempt to estimate this,**~** proposed research project would extract data from the few utility DSM reports with enough detail on ballast rebates. Forthese programs, 'we .could calculate the average percentages oftotal DSM spending on lighting, and the number ofelectronic ballasts that each percentage point implies. We could then make the assumption that these utility rebate programs were representative ofall utility programs, and using EIA-rlata on lighting DSM expenditures, estimate the national electronic ballast number.



# - There .are also no estimates offuture utility DSM levels. Various sources agree that the rebates are decreasing dramatically. Other utility incentive programs, such as procurement, support of, energy service companies, etc, may pick up some ofthe slack. However, in the current competitive utility environment, there are noestimates ofthe magnitude ofthese programs. 

# --

### D. ASHRAE/IES Building Code

Under EPAct, the existing code is being adopted by each state. We are looking for a source of estimates of likely impacts of the existing as well as the upcoming revised code. The new code, still under public review, will have stricter watts/square foot limits; it was created using models based on presently-available efficient lighting technologies, including electronic ballasts. E. NEMA's Re-Electrify America This program is in the beginning stages, and no estimates of potential impact have been performed. Its goal is educational, using a business approach. It will complement the EPA Green Lights program. F. Voluntary Luminaire Program Under the Energy Policy Act of 1992, a voluntary luminaire program was created by NEMA, ALA, and other interested organizations. This program, based on the NEMA LE-5 method of "luminaire efficacy rating," provides information on overall system efficacy for fluorescent luminaires. Since LER is based on efficacy of the ballast/lamp system as well as the luminaire efficiency, the use of an electronic ballast makes a large contribution to a higher LER rating. Beginning in 1995, the Bureau of Census MA-36L report on luminaire sales began to track the percentage of fluorescent luminaires sold with electronic ballasts. In the future we can use this percentage to track the pattern of ballast sales in new luminaires. 

### II, Comparison of Efficient Lighting Projections A. EIA/AEO We have obtained projections from the Energy Information Administration ( EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 1997. These projections are from the National

_Energy Modeling System's AEO 1997 Technology Case runs. They forecast the percentage of lighting demand (in delivered lumens) estimated to be met by electronic ballasts and other efficient lighting technologies for each year through 2015
. Projections from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) are made for four scenarios: 

### Reference Case 1997 Technology Case (efficiency availability remains at 1997 levels throughout the forecast) Advanced Technology Cost Reduction Case (costs of high-efficiency technologies decline as much as 35% over the forecast, while the costs of the other technologies remains the same) D. ASHRAEIIES Building Code Under EPAct, the existing code is being adopted by each state. We are looking for a source of estimates oflikely impacts ofthe existing as well as the upcoming revised code. The new code, still under public review, will have stricter watts/square foot limits; it was created using models based on presently-available efficient lighting technologies, including electronic ballasts. E. NEMA's Re-Electrify America This program is in the beginning stages, and no estimates ofpotential impact have been performed. Its goal is educational, using a business approach. It 

### will complement the EPA Green Lights program. F. VoluJ)tary Luminaire Program Under the Energy Policy Act of 1992, a voluntary luminaire program was created by NEMA, ALA, and other interested organizations. This'program, based on the NEMA LE-5 method of "luminaire efficacy rating," provides information on overall system efficacy for fluorescent luminaires. Since LER is based on efficacy ofthe ballast/lamp system as well as the luminaire efficiency, the use ofan electronic ballast makes a large contribution to a higher LER rating. Beginning in 1995, the Bureau ofCensus MA-36L report on luminaire sales began to track the percentage offluorescent luminaires sold with electronic ballasts. Inthe future we can use this percentage to track the pattern ofballast sales in new luniinaires. 

# n. Comparison ofEfficient Lighting Projections A. EWABO We have obtained projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (ABO) 1997. These projections are from the National, Energy Modeling System's ABO 1997 Technology Case tuns. They forecast the percentage oflighting demand (in delivered lumens) estimated to be met by electronic ballasts and other efficient lighting technologies for each year through 2015. Projections from the NationalEnergy**Modelin~** System (NEMS) are made for four scenarios: ' 

### Reference Case 1997 Technology Case (efficiency availability remains at 1997 levels throughout the·forecast) 

### Advanced Technology CostReduction Case (costs ofhigh-efficiency technologies decline as much as 35% over the forecast, while the, costs ofthe other technologies remains the same) 

# --

### High Technology

(all consumers purchase the most efficient technology available) B. EPA Programs The Environmental Protection Agency's Atmospheric Pollution Prevention Division, Climate Change Action Plan Tracking System contains its forecast for the lighting demand met by efficient lighting technologies from 1994 - 2015. This forecast corresponds to that of the EIA/AEO forecast. 

### EPA creates its penetration estimates by adding to AEO's Reference Case described above. Again, this is EPA's forecast of where the market can go as influenced by the Green Lights and Energy Star Buildings programs, utility DSM, and market impacts. The AEO 1997 also tries to capture this natural market penetration , including consideration of utility DSM. Summary and Next Steps We have calibrated the base case electronic ballast sales to those supplied by NEMA for the years 1993, 1994, and 1995. We are estimating the impact of assumed conversion rates on the sales of electronic ballasts, taking into account voluntary programs and market forces. We have identified scenarios that give ranges for the potential impacts of voluntary programs. We are comparing COMMEND base case results with the shares of lighting demand met by electronic ballasts in the EPA and AEO forecasts discussed above. 

### We will continue to seek estimates of voluntary program impacts . We will submit the assumptions for stakeholder review, and incorporate their comments and additional research into the future COMMEND base cases. High Technology (all consumers purchase the most efficient technology available) B. EPA Programs The Environmental Protection Agency's Atmospheric Pollution Prevention Division, Climate Change Action Plan Tracking System contains its forecast for the lighting demand met by efficient lighting technologies from 1994

- 2015. This forecast corresponds to that ofthe EW ABO forecast. EPA creates its penetration estimates by adding to ABO's Reference Case described above. Again, this is EPA's forecast ofwhere the market can go as influenced by the Green Lights and Energy Star Buildings programs, utility DSM, and market impacts. The AEO 1997 also tries to capture this natural market penetration, including consideration of utility DSM. ' 

### Summary and Next Steps We have calibrated the base case electronic ballast sales to those supplied by NEMA for the years 1993, 1994, and 1995. We are estimating the impact ofassumed conversion rates on the sales of electronic ballasts, taking into account voluntary programs and market forces. We have identified scenarios that give ranges for the potential impacts ofvoluntary programs. We are comparing COMMEND base case results with the shares oflighting demand met by electronic ballasts in the EPA and AEO forecasts discussed above. We 

### will continue to seek estimates ofvoluntary program impacts
..We will submit the assumptions for stakeholder review, and incorporate their comments and additional research into the future COMMEND base cases.

"-

. , 

# --millions of electronic Ballasts 0 cn o cn o 01 o .con o 01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

### a

cc CD 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 I 1999 2000 2001

2010 j 2011 !4 2012 t 2013 7a 2014

2015 

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# Provided by Efficient Technologies
-1, Awn "0



# 2000 2005 2010 2015 Projection


# Baseline, AEO Reference Case (price reduction for efficient



# -x- AEO High Case (technical potential)

LBNL 

## . lBNL 

# 70.0%

30.0% 20.0% 

# Percent of Lighting 

# D mand Provided by 

# Efficient Technologies

-+- 

# EPA Projection

-iJ- 

# AEO Baseline, Reference Case

-A- 

# AEO ATCR Case (price reduction for efficient tech) 0.0%**-f-------.-----r---~--__.** 

### -*- 

# AEO High Tech Case (technical 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 potential)

# GG

Ballast Sales Commercial and Industrial Buildings

(interior and exterior) EPA forecast through 2000 is Green Lights/Energy Star Buildings only. EPA forecast after 2000 is for all GS/ESB and other market influencees. Number of ballasts, floor space , and percent floor space are from EPA. EPA and FEMP FRI apply primarily to existing buildings. FEMP Procurement applies to replacement ballasts.

Total Electronic EPA FEMP FEMP EPA/FEMP Utility ASHRAE/ EPA Ballasts (millions) Ballasts GL & ESB Procure . FRI

(millions) ( millions) (millions) ( millions) Totals DSM IES Projection (millions) 1992 0.11 1.26 1.36 NA NA 1993 62 .18 23.07 0.68 2 .46 3.14 1994 62
. 15 25.98 1.83 2.48 4.31 1995 66 .12 33.13 3.65 2 .46 6.11 1996 3.43 1 .88 5.31 1997 8.17 1.86 10.03 1998 10.51 0.68 1
. 86 13.05 1999 12.02 0
.68 1.86 14.55 2000 12.53 0.68 1.86 15.06 2001 0.68 1
. 86 17.88 2002 0.68 15.39 2003 0.68 15.98 2004 0.68 17.74 2005 20.61 2006 23.64 2007 26.98 2008 28.31 2009 33.80 2010 32.50 2011 41.05 2012 38.19 2013 43.28 2014 40:51 2015 40.77 Ballast Sales Commercial and Industrial Buildings (interior and exterior) EPA forecast through 2000 is Green Lights/Energy Star Buildings only. EPA forecast after 2000 is for all GS/ESB and other market influencees. Number of ballasts, floor space, and percent floor space are from EPA. EPA and FEMP FRI apply primarily to existing buildings. FEMP Procurement applies to replacement ballasts. Total Electronic EPA FEMP FEMP FRI EPAIFEMP Utility Ballasts (millions) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 62.18 62.15 66.12 Ballasts GL & ESB Procure (millions) (millions) (millions) 23.07 25.98 33.13 0.11 0.68 1.83 3.65 3.43 8.17 10.51 12.02 12.53 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 (millions) 1.26 2.46 2.48 2.46 1.88 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 Totals DSM 1.36 NA 3.14 4.31 6.11 5.31 10.03 13.05 14.55 15.06 ASHRAEI EPA IES Projection NA (millions)

17.88 15.39 15.98 17.74 20.61 23.64 26.98 28.31 33.80 32.50 41.05 38.19 43.28**40~51** 40.77