Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1997 A-2 NASS, USDA

Other spring wheat: Production is now forecast at 562 million bushels, down 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY 













Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1997 B-15 ND•S, USDA

Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the

differences between the September 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using

corn again as an example, changes between the September 1 forecast and the final

estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 445 million bushels, ranging

from 10 million to 893 million bushels. The September 1 forecast has been below

the final estimate 6 times and above 4 times. This does not imply that the

September 1 corn forecahathis year is likely to understate or overstate final

production. For most crops, the number of years the forecahts have been below

or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 :Root Mean Square Error:: 10-year Record of

 :----------------------:: Differences Between Forecaht

 : :90% Confidence:: and Final Estimate

 Crop and : : Level ::-------------------------------
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1997 B-16 ND•S, USDA

Index

 Page

 Table Narrative

Barley........................................ A-11 B- 6

Citrus Fruits................................. A-24 B-11

Corn for Grain................................ A-9 B- 4

Corn-Plants per Acre.......................... A-28

Cotton........................................ A-17 B- 8

Cotton - Cummulative Boll Counts.............. A-31

Cottonseed.................................... A-16 

Crop Moisture Maps............................ B- 1 

Crop Summary.................................. A- 3

Nuts.......................................... A-26 B-11

Papayas - Hawaii.............................. A-26 B-11

Peanuts ...................................... A-16 B- 7

Pecans........................................ A-27 B-12

Potatoes...................................... A-18 B- 9

Reliability Statement......................... B-14 

Rice.......................................... A-14 B- 6

Rice - By Grain Length........................ A-14

Sorghum for Grain............................. A-10 B- 5

Soybeans for Beans............................ A-15 B- 7

Soybeans - Pods for Beans..................... A-30

Sugarbeets.................................... A-25 B-11

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed.................. A-25 B-11

Tobacco by Class and Type..................... A-22 B-10

Tobacco by States............................. A-21

Wheat, All.................................... A-12 

Wheat, by Class............................... A-14

Wheat, Durum.................................. A-13 B- 6

Wheat, Other Spring........................... A-13 B- 6

Wheat, All Spring- Heads per Acre............. A-29
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board