8.4-i 

### APPENDIX 8.4. LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS

TABLE OF CONTENTS 8.4.1 INTRODUCTION

................................................... 8.4-1 8.4.2 LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING AEO 2003 HIGH GROWTH PRICE SCENARIO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4-3 8.4.3 LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING AEO 2003 LOW GROWTH PRICE SCENARIO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4-16

LIST OF TABLES Table 8.4.2.1 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) . 8.4-3 Table 8.4.2.2 LCC and PBP Results for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth)

..... 8.4-6 Table 8.4.2.3 LCC and PBP Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (High Growth)

........ 8.4-8 Table 8.4.2.4 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Furnaces (High Growth)

............... 8.4-10 Table 8.4.2.5 LCC and PBP Results for Gas Boilers (High Growth)

................ 8.4-12 Table 8.4.2.6 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Boilers (High Growth)

................. 8.4-14 Table 8.4.3.1 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) 8.4-16 Table 8.4.3.2 LCC and PBP for Weatherized Furnaces (Low Growth)

.............. 8.4-19 Table 8.4.3.3 LCC and PBP Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (Low Growth)

...... 8.4-21 Table 8.4.3.4 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Furnaces (Low Growth)

............... 8.4-23 Table 8.4.3.5 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Boilers (Low Growth)

................. 8.4-25

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 8.4.1.1 Residential Natural Gas Price Forecast (AEO 2003)

................... 8.4-1 Figure 8.4.1.2 Residential Electricity Price Forecast (AEO 2003)

.................... 8.4-2 Figure 8.4.1.3 Residential Oil Fuel Price Forecast (AEO 2003)

...................... 8.4-2 Figure 8.4.2.1 National LCC Savings Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4-5 Figure 8.4.2.2 National LCC Savings Results for Weatherized Furnaces (High Growth) . . 8.4-7 Figure 8.4.2.3 National LCC Savings Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (High Growth) . 8.4-9 Figure 8.4.2.4 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Furnaces (High Growth)

........ 8.4-11 Figure 8.4.2.5 National LCC Savings Results for Gas Boilers (High Growth)

......... 8.4-13 Figure 8.4.2.6 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Boilers (High Growth)

.......... 8.4-15 Figure 8.4.3.1 National LCC Savings Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4-18 Figure 8.4.3.2 National LCC Savings Results for Weatherized Furnaces (Low Growth) . 8.4-20 Figure 8.4.3.3 National LCC Savings Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (Low Growth) 8.4-228.4-ii 

### Figure 8.4.3.4 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Furnaces (Low Growth)

......... 8.4-24 Figure 8.4.3.5 National LCC Savings Result for Oil Boilers (Low Growth)

........... 8.4-26 Figure 8.4.3.6 National LCC Savings Results for Gas Boilers (Low Growth)

.......... 8.4-28a After 2025, the price in the Low Economic Growth case is higher than in the Reference case. This results from DOE’s use of the average annual gr owth rate in the 2010-2025 period to project post-2025 prices. In the Low case, Alaskan gas flows occur later in time, so the price of gas rises significantly in the 2015-2025 period despite the lower economic growth in this case. 8.4-1 

### APPENDIX 8.4. LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PRICE SCENARIOS
8.4.1 INTRODUCTION This appendix presents life-cycle cost (LCC) and payback results using alternative energy price scenarios from EIA’s AEO2003

. 1 

### The Department based the payback periods on the calculation methodology used in Chapter 8: Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis. Figures 8.4.1.1, 8.4.1.2 and 8.4.1.3 show the price forecasts from AEO 003 for natural gas, oil, and electricity for the three economic growth cases considered by EIA. For natural gas, the price in the High Economic Growth case is considerably higher than in the Reference case in 2012. The decline in 2018-2020 is due to the fact that initial gas flows from the Alaskan pipeline occur earlier in the High Economic Growth case than in the Reference case. The price in this case rises much faster than in the Reference case after 2020 due to higher economic growth causing greater demand for gas. a

$6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $8.50 $9.00 $9.50 $10.00

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Year$/MMBtu AEO 2003 - REF AEO 2003 - LOW AEO 2003 - HIGH



### Figure 8.4.1.1 Residential Natural Gas Price Forecast (AEO 2003)8.4-2 $19.00 $20.00 $21.00 $22.00 $23.00 $24.00 $25.00 $26.00 $27.00 $28.00

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Year$/MMBtu AEO 2003 - REF

AEO 2003 - LOW AEO 2003 - HIGH



### Figure 8.4.1.2 Residential Electricity Price Forecast (AEO 2003)

$7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $8.50 $9.00 $9.50 $10.00

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year$/MMBtu AEO 2003 - REF

AEO 2003 - LOW AEO 2003 - HIGH



### Figure 8.4.1.3 Residential Oil Fuel Price Forecast (AEO 2003)8.4-3 

### 8.4.2 LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING AEO 2003 HIGH GROWTH PRICE SCENARIO

Table 8.4.2.1 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) LCC Payback Design Option: AFUE/Electricity Average Average Savings Net Cost No Impact* Net Benefit Median Average*
$ $ % % % years years 78% $10,264 80% $10,087 $0 0% 99% 1% 2.1 34.7 80% PSC+ $10,075 $8 15% 27% 58% 5.3 5.1 80% ECM $10,155 -$51 58% 27% 16% 21.8 31.7 80% BC/ECM+ $10,098 -$9 48% 27% 25% 16.3 24.6 80% 2-stage mod. $10,006 $44 33% 27% 40% 8.3 13.2 80% 2-mod. ECM $10,071 -$2 45% 27% 28% 14.6 20.0 80% 2-stage mod. BC/ECM+ $10,054 $15 43% 27% 30% 13.6 19.9 81% 8% Cat. III $10,078 -$1 32% 27% 42% 8.5 26.7 81% PSC+ $10,066 $8 29% 26% 45% 7.7 20.3 81% ECM $10,147 -$53 50% 26% 24% 16.9 24.9 81% BC/ECM+ $10,089 -$10 43% 26% 31% 14.0 21.8 81% 2-stage Mod, no Cat. III $9,964 $68 28% 26% 46% 7.4 16.4 81% 2-stage Mod ECM $10,068 -$7 43% 26% 31% 13.7 20.2 81% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+ $10,051 $11 41% 26% 33% 13.0 19.6 82% $10,455 -$287 69% 26% 4% 25.1 77.5 82% PSC+ $10,443 -$278 69% 26% 5% 25.2 74.6 82% ECM $10,524 -$339 70% 26% 4% 45.6 92.8 82% BC/ECM+ $10,467 -$297 67% 26% 7% 32.6 76.1 82% 2-stage Mod $10,385 -$249 64% 26% 10% 17.7 52.2 82% 2-stage Mod ECM $10,488 -$295 66% 26% 8% 33.1 78.4 82% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+ $10,430 -$277 64% 26% 10% 29.2 67.7 83% $10,682 -$462 73% 26% 1% 59.7 119.7 90% Baseline Cond. $10,179 -$134 54% 26% 19% 17.0 41.4 90% PSC+ $10,168 -$124 56% 15% 29% 13.7 36.8 90% ECM $10,260 -$199 64% 15% 20% 20.3 45.08.4-4 90% BC/ECM+ $10,205 -$148 61% 15% 24% 18.0 40.2 91% 2-stage Mod ECM $10,145 -$108 57% 15% 28% 15.7 40.5 91% 2-stage BC/ECM+ $10,120 -$82 55% 15% 29% 15.3 36.1 91% Step Mod ECM $10,363 -$294 65% 15% 19% 21.0 51.7 91% Step Mod BC/ECM+ $10,351 -$278 65% 15% 20% 20.4 45.7 92%Incr. HX Area $10,181 -$143 58% 15% 26% 15.3 38.8 92% PSC+ $10,170 -$132 61% 2% 37% 12.6 34.5 92% ECM $10,263 -$223 74% 2% 24% 20.3 45.3 92% BC/ECM+ $10,208 -$167 71% 2% 28% 18.1 38.4 93% 2-stage Mod ECM $10,154 -$115 64% 2% 34% 15.0 38.3 93% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+ $10,129 -$90 64% 2% 35% 15.0 35.4 93% Step Mod ECM $10,374 -$333 76% 2% 23% 20.6 49.8 93% Step Mod BC/ECM+ $10,361 -$319 76% 2% 23% 20.3 45.0 96% Step Mod ECM $10,958 -$907 88% 2% 10% 30.7 82.8 96% Step Mod BC/ECM+ $10,967 -$917 90% 0% 10% 31.4 84.2 * “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level indicated, so the household is not affected.8.4-5 LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option80% Incr. HX Area80% PSC+80% ECM80% BC/ECM+80% 2-stage Mod80% 2-stage Mod ECM80% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+81% with 8% Cat. III81% no Cat. III81% PSC+81% ECM81% BC/ECM+81% 2 stage Mod, 8% Cat. III81% 2 stage Mod, no Cat. III81% 2 stage Mod ECM81% 2 stage Mod BC/ECM+90% Baseline Cond.90% PSC+90% ECM90% BC/ECM+91% 2 stage Mod ECM91% 2 stage Mod BC/ECM+91% Step Mod ECM91% Step Mod BC/ECM+92% Incr. HX Area92% PSC+92% ECM92% BC/ECM+93% 2 stage Mod ECM93% 2 stage Mod BC/ECM+93% Step Mod ECM93% Step Mod BC/ECM+96% Step Mod ECM96% Cont Mod BC/ECM+ -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000

-500 0 500 1000 1500 Median Mean



### Figure 8.4.2.1 National LCC Savings Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth)8.4-6 

### Table 8.4.2.2 LCC and PBP Results for Weatherized Gas Furnaces (High Growth) LCC Payback Design Option: AFUE/Electricity Average Average Savings Net Cost No Impact* Net Benefit Median Average*

78% Baseline $8,716 80% Incr. HX Area $8,625 $2 0% 98% 2% 1.1 1.4 80% Improved Insulation $8,621 $4 25% 46% 29% 9.0 8.1 80% PSC+ $8,607 $11 6% 46% 48% 3.2 3.9 80% ECM $8,688 -$32 42% 46% 13% 18.2 25.0 80% Improved Heat Xfer $8,635 -$4 52% 46% 2% 2.7 3.4 81% Incr. HX Area $8,584 $24 2% 46% 52% 1.9 2.5 81% Improved Insulation $8,580 $27 19% 20% 61% 5.0 6.2 81% PSC+ $8,566 $38 4% 20% 76% 2.7 3.2 81% ECM $8,647 -$27 55% 20% 25% 15.2 20.0 81% Improved Heat Xfer $8,590 $19 32% 20% 48% 3.7 4.9 82% Incr. HX Area $8,544 $55 3% 20% 78% 2.0 2.8 82% Improved Insulation $8,541 $59 18% 0% 82% 4.2 5.4 82% PSC+ $8,527 $73 3% 0% 97% 2.5 3.1 82% ECM $8,608 -$8 62% 0% 38% 13.4 17.4 82% Improved Heat Xfer $8,546 $54 24% 0% 76% 2.4 3.3 83% Incr. HX Area $8,510 $90 6% 0% 94% 2.8 3.8 83% Improved Insulation $8,507 $93 11% 0% 89% 3.8 5.2 83% PSC+ $8,493 $107 3% 0% 97% 2.8 3.5 83% ECM $8,574 $26 54% 0% 46% 11.7 14.2 83% Improved Heat Xfer $8,507 $92 4% 0% 96% 2.3 3.2 * “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level indicated, so the household is not affected.8.4-7 LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option80% Incr HX Area80% Improved Insulation80% PSC+80% ECM80% Improved Heat Xfer81% Incr HX Area81% Improved Insulation81% PSC+81% ECM81% Improved Heat Xfer82% Incr HX Area82% Improved Insulation82% PSC+82% ECM82% Improved Heat Xfer83% Incr HX Area83% Improved Insulation83% PSC+83% ECM83% Improved Heat Xfer -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 Median Mean



### Figure 8.4.2.2 National LCC Savings Result s for Weatherized Furnaces (High Growth)8.4-8 

### Table 8.4.2.3 LCC and PBP Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (High Growth) LCC Payback Design Option: AFUE/Electricity Average LCC Average Savings Net Cost No Impact* Net Benefit Median Average*

75% Baseline $8,149 80% $7,704 $67 1% 85% 14% 2.3 4.4 80% ECM $7,780 -$5 65% 5% 30% 19.0 35.6 80% 2-stage modulation $7,938 -$156 79% 5% 16% 25.2 60.8 81% $7,650 $118 9% 5% 86% 4.2 6.1 81% ECM $7,726 $46 54% 5% 41% 14.8 20.4 81% 2-stage modulation $7,888 -$109 74% 5% 21% 24.3 59.0 82% $7,605 $160 13% 5% 82% 4.9 7.3 82% ECM $7,680 $89 45% 5% 50% 12.7 16.6 82% 2-stage modulation $7,846 -$69 69% 5% 26% 22.2 55.0 90% $7,555 $207 45% 5% 50% 12.1 21.8 * “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level indicated, so the household is not affected.8.4-9 LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option80% Incr HX Area80% ECM80% 2-Stage Mod81% Incr HX Area81% ECM81% 2-Stage Mod82% Incr HX Area82% ECM82% 2-Stage Mod90% Condensing -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Median Mean



### Figure 8.4.2.3 National LCC Savings Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (High Growth)8.4-10 

### Table 8.4.2.4 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Furnaces (High Growth) LCC Payback Design Option: AFUE/Electricity Average Average Savings Net Cost No Impact* Net Benefit Median Average*

78% AFUE - Baseline $16,584 80% AFUE- Incr. HX Area $16,281 $12 0% 96% 4% 0.2 0.2 81% AFUE- Incr. HX Area $16,138 $98 2% 39% 59% 0.4 0.5 81% AFUE Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $16,258 $13 42% 30% 28% 11.5 19.1 81% AFUE Interrupted Ignition $16,160 $82 12% 30% 58% 2.7 4.8 81% AFUE ECM $16,313 -$24 49% 30% 21% 13.7 21.6 82% AFUE- Incr. HX Area $15,997 $196 2% 30% 68% 0.3 0.4 82% AFUE Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $16,123 $98 34% 22% 43% 8.4 13.7 82% AFUE Interrupted Ignition $16,019 $179 10% 22% 68% 1.6 3.5 82%AFUE ECM $16,171 $62 37% 22% 40% 8.8 16.0 83% AFUE- Incr. HX Area $15,860 $302 3% 22% 75% 0.3 0.4 83% AFUE Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $15,991 $190 30% 15% 55% 6.7 11.2 83% AFUE Interrupted Ignition $15,882 $284 10% 15% 75% 1.3 2.9 83%AFUE ECM $16,033 $154 31% 15% 54% 6.8 14.3 84% AFUE- Incr. HX Area $16,331 -$98 56% 15% 29% 13.3 20.3 84% AFUE Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $16,467 -$225 69% 7% 23% 16.0 24.8 84% AFUE Interrupted Ignition $16,352 -$119 65% 7% 28% 14.1 20.7 84%AFUE ECM $16,504 -$259 73% 7% 20% 17.0 31.4 85% AFUE- Incr. HX Area $16,205 $17 47% 7% 45% 9.7 13.5 85% AFUE Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $16,346 -$124 68% 0% 32% 13.5 19.9 85% AFUE Interrupted Ignition $16,227 -$4 56% 0% 44% 10.5 14.6 85%AFUE ECM $16,378 -$155 70% 0% 30% 14.1 26.1 * “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level indicated, so the household is not affected.8.4-11 LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option80% Incr HX Area81% Incr HX Area81% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod81% Interrupted Ignition81% Improved Supply Fan Motor82% Incr HX Area82% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod82% Interrupted Ignition82% Improved Supply Fan Motor83% Incr HX Area83% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod83% Interrupted Ignition83% Improved Supply Fan Motor84% Incr HX Area84% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod84% Interrupted Ignition84% Improved Supply Fan Motor85% Incr HX Area85% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod85% Interrupted Ignition85% Improved Supply Fan Motor -1200 -1000

-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Median Mean



### Figure 8.4.2.4 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Furnaces (High Growth)8.4-12 

### Table 8.4.2.5 LCC and PBP Results for Gas Boilers (High Growth) LCC Payback Design Option: AFUE/Electricity Average LCC Average Savings Net Cost No Impact* Net Benefit Median Average*

80% Baseline $10,876 81% $10,601 $96 0% 65% 35% 2.1 2.3 81% 2-stage modulation $10,837 -$37 38% 44% 18% 9.6 14.4 81% Imp Circ Pump $10,848 -$43 40% 44% 17% 14.5 53.6 82% $10,542 $130 3% 44% 54% 2.4 3.1 82% 2-stage modulation $10,777 -$36 48% 30% 22% 8.9 18.8 82% Imp Circ Pump $10,789 -$44 50% 30% 20% 18.3 41.3 83% $10,480 $173 4% 30% 66% 2.4 3.2 83% 2-stage modulation $10,716 -$28 58% 15% 27% 9.4 22.3 83% Imp Circ Pump $10,728 -$37 60% 15% 25% 17.0 38.1 84% $10,421 $224 6% 15% 79% 2.4 3.3 84% 2-stage modulation $10,656 $2 61% 6% 33% 10.0 21.9 84% Imp Circ Pump $10,669 -$9 62% 6% 32% 14.4 30.2 88% $10,954 -$276 66% 6% 28% 16.8 28.7 91% $11,027 -$346 73% 3% 24% 18.1 39.7 99% $11,492 -$811 84% 0% 16% 20.5 41.6 * “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level indicated, so the household is not affected.8.4-13 LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option81% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign81% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft81% Imp Circ Pump82% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign82% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft82% Imp Circ Pump83% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign83% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft83% Imp Circ Pump84% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign84% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft84% Imp Circ Pump88%91%99% -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000

-500 0 500 1000 1500 Median Mean



### Figure 8.4.2.5 National LCC Savings Results for Gas Boilers (High Growth)8.4-14 

### Table 8.4.2.6 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Boilers (High Growth) LCC Payback Design Option: AFUE/Electricity Average Average Savings Net Cost No Impact* Net Benefit Median Average*

80% $15,210 81% $15,088 $6 0% 95% 5% 0.6 0.8 81% Atomized Burner $15,491 -$36 11% 89% 0% 70.5 105.0 81% Inter Ign $15,090 $6 4% 89% 7% 5.7 9.0 81% Imp Circ Pump $15,309 -$17 10% 89% 1% 37.5 60.2 82% $14,969 $19 0% 89% 11% 0.6 0.8 82% Atomized Burner $15,373 -$46 16% 84% 0% 33.6 61.0 82% Inter Ign $14,971 $19 4% 84% 12% 3.3 6.4 82% Imp Circ Pump $15,190 -$16 13% 84% 3% 20.3 42.2 83% $14,853 $38 0% 84% 16% 0.6 0.8 83% Atomized Burner $15,257 -$121 37% 61% 2% 23.3 44.8 83% Inter Ign $14,855 $37 16% 61% 24% 7.5 9.5 83% Imp Circ Pump $15,075 -$50 33% 61% 7% 49.9 63.8 84% $14,740 $82 0% 61% 39% 0.7 0.8 84% Atomized Burner $15,144 -$172 58% 37% 5% 25.9 55.3 84% Inter Ign $14,742 $80 16% 37% 47% 3.7 7.1 84% Imp Circ Pump $14,962 -$57 51% 37% 12% 23.2 47.1 86% $15,241 -$227 51% 37% 11% 22.4 30.9 86% Atomized Burner $15,645 -$603 91% 7% 2% 53.7 102.2 86% Inter Ign $15,243 -$229 71% 7% 22% 17.0 24.2 86% Imp Circ Pump $15,463 -$433 87% 7% 6% 39.9 56.8 90% $15,541 -$505 80% 7% 13% 19.0 23.1 95% $15,828 -$791 87% 0% 13% 18.6 22.5 * “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level indicated, so the household is not affected.8.4-15 LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option81%81% Atom 2-stage81% Inter Ign81% Imp Circ Pump82%82% Atom 2-stage82% Inter Ign82% Imp Circ Pump83%83% Atom 2-stage83% Inter Ign83% Imp Circ Pump84%84% Atom 2-stage84% Inter Ign84% Imp Circ Pump86%86% Atom 2-stage86% Inter Ign86% Imp Circ Pump90%95% -2200 -2000 -1800 -1600 -1400 -1200 -1000

-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Median Mean



### Figure 8.4.2.6 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Boilers (High Growth)8.4-16 

### 8.4.3 LCC AND PBP RESULTS USING AEO 2003 LOW GROWTH PRICE SCENARIO Table 8.4.3.1 LCC and PBP Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth) LCC Payback Design Option: AFUE/Electricity Average Average Savings Net Cost No Impact* Net Benefit Median Average*
$ $ % % % years years 78% $9,855 80% $9,687 $0 0% 99% 1% 2.1 38.5 80% PSC+ $9,678 $7 18% 27% 55% 5.4 5.4 80% ECM $9,774 -$65 61% 27% 12% 24.1 35.2 80% BC/ECM+ $9,726 -$29 53% 27% 21% 18.0 27.5 80% 2-stage mod. $9,612 $41 33% 27% 40% 8.7 13.7 80% 2-mod. ECM $9,699 -$21 49% 27% 24% 16.1 21.9 80% 2-stage mod. BC/ECM+ $9,689 -$9 47% 27% 26% 14.9 21.8 81% 8% Cat. III $9,683 -$4 32% 27% 41% 9.2 28.3 81% PSC+ $9,673 $3 30% 26% 43% 8.3 21.9 81% ECM $9,770 -$69 53% 26% 21% 18.5 27.3 81% BC/ECM+ $9,722 -$33 47% 26% 27% 15.4 23.9 81% 2-stage Mod, no Cat. III $9,574 $62 29% 26% 45% 7.8 17.3 81% 2-stage Mod ECM $9,701 -$29 46% 26% 28% 14.9 21.9 81% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+ $9,690 -$16 44% 26% 30% 14.3 21.3 82% $10,064 -$293 70% 26% 4% 28.7 86.4 82% PSC+ $10,055 -$286 69% 26% 4% 29.2 85.3 82% ECM $10,151 -$358 71% 26% 3% 51.4 109.2 82% BC/ECM+ $10,104 -$322 68% 26% 6% 36.6 83.4 82% 2-stage Mod $9,998 -$258 65% 26% 9% 19.3 59.8 82% 2-stage Mod ECM $10,084 -$319 67% 26% 6% 36.1 84.9 82% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+ $10,073 -$306 66% 26% 7% 32.4 73.9 83% $10,296 -$470 73% 26% 1% 66.4 120.5 90% Baseline Cond. $9,820 -$161 56% 26% 18% 18.5 42.5 90% PSC+ $9,811 -$152 58% 15% 27% 14.8 38.0 90% ECM $9,917 -$239 67% 15% 18% 22.4 48.8 90% BC/ECM+ $9,871 -$196 64% 15% 20% 19.9 44.18.4-17 91% 2-stage Mod ECM $9,811 -$156 59% 15% 25% 17.1 41.0 91% 2-stage BC/ECM+ $9,794 -$137 59% 15% 26% 16.8 39.6 91% Step Mod ECM $10,032 -$344 67% 15% 17% 22.9 53.8 91% Step Mod BC/ECM+ $10,027 -$334 67% 15% 17% 22.4 50.5 92%Incr. HX Area $9,829 -$174 60% 15% 24% 16.6 41.0 92% PSC+ $9,820 -$166 64% 2% 34% 13.6 37.1 92% ECM $9,927 -$271 77% 2% 21% 22.1 47.5 92% BC/ECM+ $9,880 -$224 74% 2% 24% 19.9 41.3 93% 2-stage Mod ECM $9,827 -$173 68% 2% 31% 16.3 40.4 93% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+ $9,809 -$154 67% 2% 31% 16.3 36.2 93% Step Mod ECM $10,050 -$392 78% 2% 20% 22.4 51.7 93% Step Mod BC/ECM+ $10,043 -$384 79% 2% 20% 22.2 47.2 96% Step Mod ECM $10,642 -$976 90% 2% 8% 33.4 92.2 96% Step Mod BC/ECM+ $10,658 -$992 92% 0% 9% 34.2 87.0 * “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level indicated, so the household is not affected.8.4-18 LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option80% Incr. HX Area80% PSC+80% ECM80% BC/ECM+80% 2-stage Mod80% 2-stage Mod ECM80% 2-stage Mod BC/ECM+81% with 8% Cat. III81% no Cat. III81% PSC+81% ECM81% BC/ECM+81% 2 stage Mod, 8% Cat. III81% 2 stage Mod, no Cat. III81% 2 stage Mod ECM81% 2 stage Mod BC/ECM+90% Baseline Cond.90% PSC+90% ECM90% BC/ECM+91% 2 stage Mod ECM91% 2 stage Mod BC/ECM+91% Step Mod ECM91% Step Mod BC/ECM+92% Incr. HX Area92% PSC+92% ECM92% BC/ECM+93% 2 stage Mod ECM93% 2 stage Mod BC/ECM+93% Step Mod ECM93% Step Mod BC/ECM+96% Step Mod ECM96% Cont Mod BC/ECM+ -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000

-500 0 500 1000 1500 Median Mean



### Figure 8.4.3.1 National LCC Savings Results for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces (Low Growth)8.4-19 

### Table 8.4.3.2 LCC and PBP for Weatherized Furnaces (Low Growth) LCC Payback Design Option: AFUE/Electricity Average Average Savings Net Cost No Impact* Net Benefit Median Average*

78% Baseline $8,468 80% Incr. HX Area $8,381 $2 0% 98% 2% 1.1 1.5 80% Improved Insulation $8,378 $3 27% 46% 27% 9.1 8.2 80% PSC+ $8,366 $10 7% 46% 47% 3.5 4.1 80% ECM $8,461 -$41 44% 46% 10% 20.1 27.9 80% Improved Heat Xfer $8,391 -$4 52% 46% 2% 2.9 3.8 81% Incr. HX Area $8,343 $22 2% 46% 52% 2.1 2.7 81% Improved Insulation $8,340 $25 20% 20% 60% 5.3 6.5 81% PSC+ $8,328 $35 5% 20% 75% 2.8 3.4 81% ECM $8,423 -$41 60% 20% 20% 16.7 22.0 81% Improved Heat Xfer $8,349 $18 32% 20% 48% 3.9 5.2 82% Incr. HX Area $8,306 $52 3% 20% 77% 2.2 3.0 82% Improved Insulation $8,303 $55 19% 0% 81% 4.4 5.7 82% PSC+ $8,291 $67 4% 0% 96% 2.7 3.3 82% ECM $8,385 -$28 67% 0% 33% 14.7 19.0 82% Improved Heat Xfer $8,307 $51 24% 0% 76% 2.6 3.5 83% Incr. HX Area $8,274 $84 7% 0% 93% 3.0 4.0 83% Improved Insulation $8,271 $87 12% 0% 88% 4.0 5.6 83% PSC+ $8,259 $99 4% 0% 96% 3.0 3.7 83% ECM $8,353 $4 60% 0% 40% 12.7 15.5 83% Improved Heat Xfer $8,271 $87 4% 0% 96% 2.5 3.4 * “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level indicated, so the household is not affected.8.4-20 LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option80% Incr HX Area80% Improved Insulation80% PSC+80% ECM80% Improved Heat Xfer81% Incr HX Area81% Improved Insulation81% PSC+81% ECM81% Improved Heat Xfer82% Incr HX Area82% Improved Insulation82% PSC+82% ECM82% Improved Heat Xfer83% Incr HX Area83% Improved Insulation83% PSC+83% ECM83% Improved Heat Xfer -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 Median Mean



### Figure 8.4.3.2 National LCC Savings Resu lts for Weatherized Furnaces (Low Growth)8.4-21 

### Table 8.4.3.3 LCC and PBP Results for Mobile Home Furnaces (Low Growth) LCC Payback Design Option: AFUE/Electricity Average LCC Average Savings Net Cost No Impact* Net Benefit Median Average*

75% Baseline $7,759 80% $7,342 $62 2% 85% 13% 2.4 5.4 80% ECM $7,443 -$35 70% 5% 25% 21.3 38.1 80% 2-stage modulation $7,580 -$165 80% 5% 15% 25.5 62.6 81% $7,292 $110 10% 5% 85% 4.5 6.4 81% ECM $7,392 $13 61% 5% 34% 16.3 22.3 81% 2-stage modulation $7,553 -$120 75% 5% 20% 25.3 62.1 82% $7,250 $150 15% 5% 80% 5.3 7.8 82% ECM $7,349 $54 51% 5% 44% 13.8 18.2 82% 2-stage modulation $7,495 -$83 70% 5% 25% 23.0 57.5 90% $7,222 $176 47% 5% 48% 13.0 24.1 * “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level indicated, so the household is not affected.8.4-22 LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option80% Incr HX Area80% ECM80% 2-Stage Mod81% Incr HX Area81% ECM81% 2-Stage Mod82% Incr HX Area82% ECM82% 2-Stage Mod90% Condensing -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Median Mean



### Figure 8.4.3.3 National LCC Savings Result s for Mobile Home Furnaces (Low Growth)8.4-23 

### Table 8.4.3.4 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Furnaces (Low Growth) LCC Payback Design Option: AFUE/Electricity Average Average Savings Net Cost No Impact Net Benefit Median Average

78% Baseline $15,611 80% Incr. HX Area $15,331 $11 0% 96% 4% 0.2 0.2 81% Incr. HX Area $15,200 $91 2% 39% 59% 0.4 0.5 81% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $15,332 -$2 44% 30% 26% 12.3 20.0 81% Interrupted Ignition $15,224 $74 13% 30% 57% 2.9 5.2 81% ECM $15,389 -$41 52% 30% 18% 15.2 23.9 82% Incr. HX Area $15,070 $182 2% 30% 68% 0.3 0.4 82% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $15,207 $76 37% 22% 40% 8.9 14.1 82% Interrupted Ignition $15,043 $164 10% 22% 67% 1.7 3.5 82% ECM $15,258 $36 41% 22% 36% 9.6 18.0 83% Incr. HX Area $14,943 $280 2% 22% 75% 0.3 0.4 83% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $15,085 $159 33% 15% 52% 7.1 11.9 83% Interrupted Ignition $14,967 $260 10% 15% 75% 1.4 3.1 83% ECM $15,131 $120 35% 15% 50% 7.4 14.9 84% Incr. HX Area $15,425 -$129 60% 15% 26% 14.1 21.5 84% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $15,571 -$265 72% 7% 20% 16.8 26.0 84% AFUE Interrupted Ignition $15,448 -$151 68% 7% 24% 15.0 21.9 84% ECM $15,612 -$302 76% 7% 17% 18.5 33.4 85% Incr. HX Area $15,309 -$22 51% 7% 42% 10.4 14.3 85% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod. $15,461 -$173 71% 0% 29% 14.2 20.8 85% Interrupted Ignition $15,333 -$46 60% 0% 40% 11.2 15.5 85% ECM $15,496 -$209 75% 0% 25% 15.4 28.5 * “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level indicated, so the household is not affected.8.4-24 LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option80% Incr HX Area81% Incr HX Area81% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod81% Interrupted Ignition81% Improved Supply Fan Motor82% Incr HX Area82% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod82% Interrupted Ignition82% Improved Supply Fan Motor83% Incr HX Area83% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod83% Interrupted Ignition83% Improved Supply Fan Motor84% Incr HX Area84% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod84% Interrupted Ignition84% Improved Supply Fan Motor85% Incr HX Area85% Atom Burner 2-stage Mod85% Interrupted Ignition85% Improved Supply Fan Motor -1200 -1000

-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Median Mean



### Figure 8.4.3.4 National LCC Savings Results for Oil Furnaces (Low Growth)8.4-25 

### Table 8.4.3.5 LCC and PBP Results for Oil Boilers (Low Growth) LCC Payback Design Option: AFUE/Electricity Average Average Savings Net Cost No Impact* Net Benefit Median Average*

80% $14,454 81% $14,341 $6 0% 95% 5% 0.7 0.8 81% Atomized Burner $14,729 -$35 11% 89% 0% 73.0 107.1 81% Inter Ign $14,346 $5 4% 89% 7% 6.0 9.6 81% Imp Circ Pump $14,566 -$18 10% 89% 1% 40.4 67.9 82% $14,231 $18 0% 89% 11% 0.7 0.8 82% Atomized Burner $14,620 -$45 16% 84% 0% 36.8 67.8 82% Inter Ign $14,236 $17 4% 84% 12% 3.5 6.9 82% Imp Circ Pump $14,456 -$18 13% 84% 3% 21.9 46.6 83% $14,124 $35 0% 84% 16% 0.7 0.8 83% Atomized Burner $14,513 -$118 38% 61% 2% 24.1 46.3 83% Inter Ign $14,129 $33 17% 61% 22% 8.0 10.4 83% Imp Circ Pump $14,349 -$54 33% 61% 6% 54.6 71.7 84% $14,019 $76 0% 61% 39% 0.7 0.9 84% Atomized Burner $14,409 -$169 58% 37% 4% 28.2 60.1 84% Inter Ign $14,025 $72 18% 37% 45% 3.9 7.7 84% Imp Circ Pump $14,245 -$66 52% 37% 11% 24.9 52.3 86% $14,536 -$243 53% 37% 10% 23.7 32.8 86% Atomized Burner $14,927 -$606 91% 7% 2% 54.4 99.7 86% Inter Ign $14,542 -$248 75% 7% 18% 18.0 25.8 86% Imp Circ Pump $14,762 -$453 88% 7% 5% 42.6 61.8 90% $14,874 -$556 83% 7% 10% 20.2 24.6 95% $15,195 -$877 89% 0% 11% 19.7 23.8 * “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level indicated, so the household is not affected.8.4-26 LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option81%81% Atom 2-stage81% Inter Ign81% Imp Circ Pump82%82% Atom 2-stage82% Inter Ign82% Imp Circ Pump83%83% Atom 2-stage83% Inter Ign83% Imp Circ Pump84%84% Atom 2-stage84% Inter Ign84% Imp Circ Pump86%86% Atom 2-stage86% Inter Ign86% Imp Circ Pump90%95% -2200 -2000 -1800 -1600 -1400 -1200 -1000

-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 Median Mean



### Figure 8.4.3.5 National LCC Savings Result for Oil Boilers (Low Growth)8.4-27 

### Table 8.4.3.6 LCC and PBP Results for Gas Boilers (Low Growth) LCC Payback Design Option: AFUE/Electricity Average LCC Average Savings Net Cost No Impact* Net Benefit Median Average*

80% Baseline $10,536 81% $10,276 $91 0% 65% 35% 2.2 2.5 81% 2-stage modulation $10,409 -$35 38% 44% 18% 10.1 14.7 81% Imp Circ Pump $10,527 -$50 41% 44% 16% 15.5 57.2 82% $10,221 $123 3% 44% 53% 2.6 3.3 82% 2-stage modulation $10,354 -$35 49% 30% 22% 9.7 21.1 82% Imp Circ Pump $10,472 -$54 51% 30% 19% 19.6 44.0 83% $10,163 $163 5% 30% 66% 2.6 3.4 83% 2-stage modulation $10,298 -$29 59% 15% 26% 10.2 24.0 83% Imp Circ Pump $10,414 -$50 62% 15% 24% 18.3 40.8 84% $10,107 $211 6% 15% 79% 2.6 3.5 84% 2-stage modulation $10,243



### - $2 62% 6% 32% 10.7 22.9 84% Imp Circ Pump $10,358 -$26 64% 6% 30% 15.5 32.5 88% $10,653 -$301 67% 6% 27% 18.0 30.5 91% $10,739 -$384 75% 3% 22% 20.1 46.3 99% $11,226 -$870 86% 0% 14% 22.4 48.6 * “No impact” means that the base case furnace assigned to the household has greater efficiency than the level indicated, so the household is not affected.8.4-28 LCC Savings Ranges By Design Option81% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign81% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft81% Imp Circ Pump82% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign82% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft82% Imp Circ Pump83% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign83% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft83% Imp Circ Pump84% Imp Ht Xfer/Elec Ign84% 2-stage Mod + Indc Draft84% Imp Circ Pump88%91%99% -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000

-500 0 500 1000 Median Mean



### Figure 8.4.3.6 National LCC Savings Results for Gas Boilers (Low Growth)8.4-29 

### REFERENCES 1. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2003: With Projections Through 2025, January, 2003. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2003). <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo>