Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-11 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-12 NASS, USDA

 Oats: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State 

 and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-13 NASS, USDA

 Barley: D2ea Harvested, Yield, and Production by State 

 and United States, 1996 and Fo2ecasted August 1, 1997 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-14 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-15 NASS, USDA

 Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State 

 and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-16 NASS, USDA

 Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State 

 and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-18 NASS, USDA

 Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State 

 and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-20 NASS, USDA

 Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, 

 and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Type : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ 

 and :--------------------------------------------------------------------

 State : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 : -- 1,000 Acres -- --- Pounds --- ------ 1,000 Bales 2/ ------ 

 : 

Upland : 

AL : 516.0 420.0 734 503 492.0 789.0 440.0 

AZ : 314.0 329.0 1,189 1,167 793.0 778.0 800.0 

AR : 990.0 930.0 793 692 1,468.0 1,636.0 1,340.0 

CA : 995.0 875.0 1,153 1,207 2,312.0 2,390.0 2,200.0 

FL : 98.2 100.0 637 720 107.2 130.4 150.0 

GA : 1,336.0 1,435.0 747 736 1,941.0 2,079.0 2,200.0 

KS : 4.0 13.5 492 480 1.0 4.1 13.5 

LA : 885.0 585.0 697 673 1,375.0 1,286.0 820.0 

MS : 1,100.0 960.0 819 750 1,841.0 1,876.0 1,500.0 

MO : 385.0 365.0 737 618 513.0 591.0 470.0 

NM : 55.0 66.0 733 698 71.0 84.0 96.0 

NC : 710.0 688.0 677 590 798.0 1,002.0 845.0 

OK : 210.0 210.0 306 434 123.0 134.0 190.0 

SC : 282.0 285.0 774 758 376.0 455.0 450.0 

TN : 530.0 500.0 611 566 724.0 675.0 590.0 

TX : 4,100.0 5,300.0 509 453 4,460.0 4,345.0 5,000.0 

VA : 102.0 99.0 748 601 137.0 159.0 124.0 

 :

US : 12,612.2 13,160.5 701 628 17,532.2 18,413.5 17,228.5 

 :

Amer-Pima : 

AZ : 41.9 20.0 852 792 72.2 74.4 33.0 

CA : 164.0 184.0 1,098 1,174 224.5 375.0 450.0 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-21 NASS, USDA

 Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted by Commercial Class, State,

 and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-22 NASS, USDA

 Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted, by Commercial Class, State,

 and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 (continued)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Class and State : 1996 : 1997 :: Class and State : 1996 : 1997

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 : 1,000 Acres :: : 1,000 Acres

 : :: :

Black : :: Other :
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-23 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-24 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-25 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-26 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-27 NASS, USDA

 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-28 NASS, USDA

 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-29 NASS, USDA

 

 Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and 

 United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 

 State:-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-30 NASS, USDA

 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-31 NASS, USDA

 

 Prunes and Plums: Total Production by State and United States, 

 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 : Total Production 

 State :-----------------------------------------------------------

 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 : Tons 

 : 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-32 NASS, USDA

 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-33 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-34 NASS, USDA

 

 Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States, 

 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 : Total Production 1/ 

 State :-----------------------------------------------------------------

 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 : Million Pounds 

 : 

AZ : 11.0 100.0 45.0 

AR : 10.0 7.0 10.0 

CA : 850.0 900.0 900.0 

CO : 55.0 35.0 50.0 

CT : 20.5 20.0 20.0 

DE 2/ : 15.0 15.0 

GA : 30.0 22.0 26.0 

ID : 80.0 180.0 130.0 

IL : 80.0 53.0 89.0 

IN : 75.0 48.0 56.0 

IA : 10.0 9.5 11.9 

KS : 6.5 2.0 7.0 

KY : 17.0 15.0 12.0 

ME : 65.0 67.0 64.0 

MD : 35.0 29.0 26.0 

MA : 65.0 58.0 58.0 

MI : 1,220.0 725.0 1,050.0 

MN : 22.0 21.0 22.0 

MO : 38.0 32.0 43.0 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-35 NASS, USDA

 Pears: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States, 

 1995-1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 : Total Production 

 Crop and State :--------------------------------------------------------

 : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 : Tons 

 : 

Bartlett : 

 CA : 247,000 287,000 300,000 

 OR : 70,000 45,000 75,000 

 WA : 180,000 105,000 180,000 

 : 

 Total : 497,000 437,000 555,000 

 : 

Excluding Bartlett : 

 CA : 20,000 30,000 30,000 

 OR : 160,000 130,000 180,000 

 WA : 240,000 195,000 230,000 

 : 

 Total : 420,000 355,000 440,000 

 : 

All : 

 CA : 267,000 317,000 330,000 

 CO : 2,900 1,200 4,000 

 CT : 950 1,050 1,050 

 MI : 5,500 6,000 3,500 

 NY : 14,500 15,000 11,500 

 OR : 230,000 175,000 255,000 

 PA : 6,300 4,000 3,800 

 UT : 1,100 1,500 900 

 WA : 420,000 300,000 410,000 

 : 

 US : 948,250 820,750 1,019,750 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 Coffee: Utilized Production, Hawaii, 1994-96 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-36 NASS, USDA

 

 Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States, 

 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 : Total Production 


Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-3 NASS, USDA

July Weather Summary: Extremely dry and occasionally hot weather in the central

 Corn Belt highlighted a month of extremes. Farther east,
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-4 NASS, USDA

58 mph in Elizabeth City, NC and 61 mph at Cape Henry, VA. On the afternoon of

July 25, Tropical Storm Danny passed about 15 miles southeast of Nantucket

Island, MA, packing wind gusts as high as 70 mph. En route to coastal New

England, Danny helped to produce single-day, July-record rainfalls in Newark, NJ

(3.54 inches) and New York's Central Park (3.75 inches).
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-5 NASS, USDA

growth throughout the Corn Belt. Progress of corn and soybeans took a dramatic

jump in the middle of BTuly that corresponded to the jump in planting progress 

earlier in the spring. By the end of the month, both corn silking and soybean

setting pods were ahead of last year and the average. Lack of moisture began to

stress the crops as the month progressed, but temperatures turned cooler at

month’s end to moderate the stress slightly. Crop conditions remained good in

areas that received moisture, but conditions declined in fields only a few miles

away that missed the scattered showers. 

After a slow start in BTune, winter wheat harvest progressed rapidly in Buly due

to generally warm, dry weather in the major winter wheat-producing States.

Harvest in the southern Plains and Southeast finished by mid-month, slightly

ahead of average. In the northern Plains and Northwest, harvest progressed

behind the normal pace until the end of the month, when dry, sunny weather

allowed farmers into ripe fields. Timely showers along the Northern Tier States

provided enough moisture for spring small grain development to catch up after

late planting. Spring wheat and barley completed heading ahead of last year and

the average. Late-month cool, wet weather in North Dakota promoted the

development of head and foliar diseases. Oats were harvested at the average

national pace. Spring wheat and barley harvest was just underway by month’s

end.

Torrential rains along the path of Hurricane Danny’s remnants may have caused
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-6 NASS, USDA

Sorghum for Grain: The first production forecast for the 1997 crop year is

 629 million bushels, down 22 percent from 1996, but

37 percent above 1995. Reductions in both acreage and yields from the previous

year are the reasons for the decline in production. Area for grain is forecast

at 9.51 million acres, down 20 percent from last year. Based on August 1

conditions, yields are forecast at 66.2 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from

1996. Yield decreases are expected in 12 of the top 18 producing States with

Kentucky, Colorado, and Missouri showing the largest declines.

The 1997 sorghum crop was rated in mostly good to fair condition as of the week

ending August 3. The percent of sorghum headed was ahead of the five-year

average in most States, but sorghum coloring was three points behind normal. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-7 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-8 NASS, USDA

good-to-excellent condition. If realized, this will be the highest yielding

and largest producing Texas crop on record. The increase in production is

mainly due to record yields, an 11 percent increase in acreage, and a large

shift in peanut acreage from South Central Texas to West Texas’s irrigated area. 

Through August 3, New Mexico producers indicated minimal disease problems and

excellent crop development. 

Rice: Rice production is forecast at 182 million cwt, 6 percent above 1996 and

 5 percent above 1995. This production level, if realized, would be the

third highest production on record. Production and acreage are above last year

in all States except Texas. Yields are expected to average a near-record

5,994 pounds per acre, down 127 pounds from 1996's record level. In California,

the crop remained nearly 2 weeks ahead of normal at the beginning of August. 

Arkansas’s crop was rated at 76 percent good-to-excellent condition on August 3, 

despite less than average crop development. Rice harvest is underway in Texas

and Louisiana. 

Soybeans:
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-9 NASS, USDA

crop and 8 percent of Mississippi’s crop was excellent. The planting pace in

this region, lagged behind the average due to wet soils and because other row
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-10 NASS, USDA

8 percent below 1995. Growers in North Dakota lowered their estimate of

harvested area from 600,000 to 530,000 acres from June to August. As of August

1, the average U.S. yield is forecast at 1,666 pounds per acre, up 74 pounds

from last year and 44 pounds above two years ago. 

In North Dakota, dry spring weather caused uneven germination and plant

development. Excessive rains during July drowned out some acreage and made the

crop susceptible to mold. Growers in Michigan experienced excellent planting
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-11 NASS, USDA

followed by Nebraska, down 16 percent, and Michigan, down 13 percent. Harvested 

area in North Dakota is down 24 percent from a year ago, but yields have also

been hurt by dry conditions, especially in the western part of the State. 

Nebraska’s alfalfa crop has been suffering due to insect damage and short
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-12 NASS, USDA

the dry conditions. As of August 1, 37 percent of Kentucky’s burley was

blooming, compared to 44 percent last year and a 51 percent average.

All indications point to a below average year for Tennessee’s tobacco crop. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-13 NASS, USDA

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.90 million pounds for

 July, 2 percent more than a month ago and 1 percent more than July

1996. July weather conditions were a mix of sunshine and showers throughout the

month. Papaya ringspot virus continued to depress yields and shorten the life

on infected fields.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 5,280 acres, 1 percent more than June

and 47 percent more than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling 2,330 acres, was

3 percent more than last month and 34 percent more than in July 1996.

Hops: Hop production in 1997 in Idaho, Oregon and Washington is forecast at

 73.8 million pounds, down 2 percent from last year and 6 percent below

1995. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1991's 

69.2 million pounds. Acreage strung for harvest, at 43,951 acres, is down less

than 1 percent from last year’s 44,161 acres, while yields, at 1,680 pounds per
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-14 NASS, USDA

Production in the Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, and WA) is forecast at

6.71 billion pounds, down 3 percent from 1996. Increases in Oregon and Colorado
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-15 NASS, USDA

Coffee:
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-16 NASS, USDA

with discontinued care are generally showing signs of stress in the form of

yellowing foliage. New crop fruit is making good progress with good sizes on
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-17 NASS, USDA

Reliability of August 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-18 NASS, USDA

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the August 1 corn for grain

production forecast is 9.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that

the current production forecast of 9.28 billion bushels will not be above or

below the final estimate by more than 9.1 percent or approximately 844 million

bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the

difference will not exceed 15.7 percent or approximately 1.46 billion bushels.

Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected croq•of the

differences between the August 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn

again as an example, changes between the August 1 forecast and the final

estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 491 million bushels, ranging

from 57 million to 1,087 million bushels. The August 1 forecast has been below

the final estimate 3 times and above 7 times. This does not imply that the

August 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final

production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below

or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of August 1 Croq Production Forecasts

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 : Root Mean Square Error:: 10-year Record of

 :-----------------------:: Differences Between Forecast

 : : 90% Confidence:: and Final Estimate

 Crop and : : Level ::--------------------------------

 Unit : :---------------:: Quantity : No. of Years

 :Percent: : ::--------------------------------
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-19 NASS, USDA

Index

 Page

 Table Narrative

Apples, Commercial....................................... A-34 B-14

Area Planted, By States.................................. A- 8

Barley................................................... A-13 B- 7

Beans, Dry Edible........................................ A-21 B- 9

Coffee................................................... A-35 

Corn for Grain........................................... A- 9 B- 5

Cotton................................................... A-20 B- 9

Cottonseed............................................... A-18 B- 9

Crop Moisture Map........................................ B- 1

Crop Summary............................................. A- 3

Drought Severity Map..................................... B- 2

Ginger Root.............................................. A-36 B-16

Grapes................................................... A-36 B-15

Hay, All................................................. A-24 B-11
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-20 NASS, USDA

Report Features

The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on

September 12, 1997.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-21 NASS, USDA

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in

its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,

disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with

disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program

information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA’s

TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C.,

20250, or call 1-800-245-6340 (voice) or 202-720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal

employment opportunity employer.