COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK               United States Department of Agriculture
CWS-0398                                            Economic Research Service
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board                July 13, 1998
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

HIGHLIGHTS

o  Cotton Area Reduced Further in 1998
o  Lower Production and Offtake Expected
o  Foreign Consumption and Exports Rise in 1998/99
o  Textile Imports and Exports Decline in April
o  Special Article--China's Cotton Production Falling in 1998/99


Cotton Area Reduced Further in 1998

According to USDA's June Acreage report, U.S. producers have planted or intend
to plant 12.9 million acres of cotton this season. The revised area is 300,000
acres (2 percent) below the March Prospective Plantings and nearly 900,000
below 1997/98. The decline from last year is a result of more favorable net
returns for some competing crops and this season's unfavorable planting weather
in several areas of the Cottonbelt.

Upland cotton area dropped 7 percent from 1997 to 12.6 million acres, while the
extra-long staple (ELS) acreage jumped 25 percent to nearly 314,000 acres.
However, much of the ELS increase was expected to be abandoned as a result of
the dry conditions in Texas. For upland cotton, each region indicated a decline
from 1997. Based on the Acreage report, the largest decline came from the Delta
region, which fell nearly 300,000 acres from last season. The largest
percentage decline came from the West region, falling 21 percent from 1997/98.

Overall crop conditions have continued to decline over the last 6 weeks and, at
this point, are below those of the past 12 seasons. As of July 5, 34 percent of
the cotton acreage was in "poor" or "very poor" condition, compared with only
13 percent in 1997. In contrast, only 36 percent was rated "good" or
"excellent" this season, compared with last year's 60 percent. While the
condition of the 1998 crop is well behind that of last season, the development
of the crop is ahead of both 1997 and the 5-year average. As of July 5, 72
percent of the acreage was squaring, compared with 65 percent in 1997 and a
5-year average of 70 percent. Likewise, 26 percent of the cotton area was
setting bolls as of early July, compared with 12 and 19 percent, respectively.

Lower Production and Offtake Expected

The U.S. cotton production estimate was also lowered again this month. The July
projection for the U.S. crop is 15.0 million bales, 700,000 below the June
projection. The lower crop is the result of lower total acreage and larger than
normal abandonment in Texas. With harvested area estimated at just under 11.2
million acres, the national yield estimate is placed at 645 pounds per
harvested acre, equal to the U.S. 10-year average yield. On August 12, the
National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will provide initial survey
projections of cotton harvested area, yield, and production, as well as an
update on planted area.



With the lower production projection and carryin stocks estimated near 4
million bales, total 1998/99 cotton supplies are expected to reach only 19
million bales, the lowest since 1990/91. As a result of the anticipated tighter
U.S. supplies and lower world consumption, U.S. exports for 1998/99 are cut
dramatically, while mill use is lowered but to a lesser degree. Exports are
projected at 5 million bales, 2.4 million below 1997/98 and accounting for only
19 percent of world cotton trade. Meanwhile, U.S. mill use is projected at 11
million bales, 400,000 below 1997/98. Despite the decline in total cotton use,
U.S. demand is still expected to outpace production, leaving ending stocks
below the beginning level. Based on these early projections, ending stocks
would drop to 3 million bales, or about 19 percent of total use.

Foreign Consumption and Exports Rise in 1998/99

Compared with 1997/98, foreign cotton production in 1998/99 is expected to be
marginally lower at 71.3 million bales, as rebounding crops in India, Pakistan,
and Argentina offset declines in China, Australia, Egypt, and Uzbekistan.
Consumption is slightly higher than a year earlier, at 77.4 million bales, and
foreign exports are forecast sharply higher, up 13 percent to 21.2 million
bales. China accounts for most of the expected 2.4-million- bale jump in
foreign exports. In addition to delayed shipments from China's April 1998
tender, a little more than 1 million bales in additional export shipments are
foreseen for China in 1998/99. If China continues to import at near the rate
realized in recent months, then China could import 1.2 million bales and be a
net exporter of 1.0 million bales in 1998/99.

China's net trade is forecast to shift from 1.6 million bales of net imports to
1.0 million bales in net exports, a net 2.6 million bale shift. This would be
the second largest annual change in China's net trade ever, and would bring
China from the world's second largest net importer in 1997/98 to a tie with
Syria in 1998/99 as the world's fifth largest net exporter.

U.S. exports are expected to fall in 1998/99 to 5.0 million bales due to
falling U.S. production, China's trade shift, and the exhaustion of Step 2
funding. Lower exports are also foreseen by Uzbekistan--the world's second
largest exporter--as an unusually cool early-season augers poorly for their
1998/99 harvest. Slightly higher exports are expected from the Franc Zone
countries, assuming production is essentially unchanged in the region in
1998/99, as larger beginning stocks increase export availability. Finally,
Australia's exports are projected down 150,000 bales due in part to lower
production.

Cotton Prices Rise in June

U.S. cotton prices continued their increase in June as prospects for abundant
supplies next season have faded. The average price received by upland producers
during the first half of the month was 66.5 cents per pound, 3 cents above May.
Spot prices for base quality upland rose about 8 cents per pound to 73.5 cents
in June, while ELS spot prices remained at $1.04 per pound.

Mill-delivered upland prices approached 81 cents per pound in June, the highest
since September 1996. Unlike cotton, prices for polyester and rayon staple have
held steady. However, the upland cotton user marketing certificate (Step 2)
program has allowed cotton to remain very price competitive. As evidence,
cotton's share of fiber use on the cotton spinning system has improved this
season and has averaged 78.5 percent through May.
  
New-crop prices have also continued higher over the last couple of months. The
December 1998 futures contract averaged 75.5 cents per pound in June, 5 cents
above May. However, the continued stress on the U.S. crop by early July has
pushed this contract closer to 76.5 cents per pound.

Textile Imports and Exports Decline in April

April textile trade data indicate imports fell 2 percent from a month earlier
to 814 million pounds (raw-fiber equivalent). A decline in apparel products
more than offset slight increases in all other end-use categories. Lower cotton
and silk imports more than offset slightly larger shipments of linen, wool, and
manmade fibers. Cotton textile imports, at 443 million pounds, declined over 19
million pounds (4 percent) from March shipments. Cotton accounted for 54
percent of total textile imports in April, compared with 56 percent a month
earlier.

Total U.S. textile exports also declined in April to 378 million pounds, down 8
percent below a month ago. Shipments of all fibers and all major end-uses were
lower in April. Cotton textile exports, at 163 million pounds, were down 4
percent from March. Cotton textile exports represented 43 percent of total
shipments, in April, 2 percent above the share in March.

Overall, the April textile trade deficit was 436 million pounds, with cotton
accounting for 64 percent of the total (281 million pounds). The April deficit
increased 31 percent from a year earlier when it totaled 333 million pounds. In
addition, the deficit for the first 4 months of 1998 was 1.7 billion pounds,
compared with 1.4 billion a year ago. Despite larger exports of cotton, silk,
and manmade fibers, stronger growth of textile imports has increased the trade
deficit this year.

Special Article:

China's Cotton Production Falling in 1998/99
by Steve MacDonald

A forecasting model for China's cotton production suggests a smaller 1998/99
crop compared with the year before. USDA is forecasting 1998/99 cotton
production in China to fall 1.6 million bales from the year before, to 19.5
million. A price-based model used for the following analysis suggests
production could even be slightly lower, but the model's specification does not
include some factors which are favorable for cotton this year. This model was
developed in 1995 to use the price of cotton, competing crops, and inputs to
forecast China's annual cotton output. China was divided into five regions, and
fixed and time-varying parameters were estimated for the relationship between
cotton production and agricultural prices. The form of the model giving the
highest production estimate, 19.6 million bales, uses the most recent
time-varying parameters (1994) and substitutes 1997 free-market prices for the
mixture of government and free-market prices used to estimate the model
parameters over 1987-1994. Using the fixed 1987-1994 average parameters and a
weighted average of government and free-market prices suggests production as
low as 18.0 million bales. The model does not include vegetable prices or labor
costs, and recent changes in each have been supportive of cotton production,
suggesting the model may be underestimating the crop in 1998/99.

Production in every region is a function of the previous year's prices in this
model (copy of paper presented to 1996 Cotton Beltwide Conferences available
from author). Xinjiang production was modeled as a function of current year
prices as well as previous years. On average for China, cotton production is
more strongly correlated with the preceding year's price rather than the
current year. However, Xinjiang's historical production was more accurately
represented by a model that accounted for current year prices. The unusually
large role for state farms in the region may account for the difference in
price response.

Xinjiang Cotton Price Floating in 1998

Since Xinjiang accounts for more than 25 percent of China's cotton production,
the absence of an officially announced price floor for 1998/99 procurement in
the region adds yet another degree of uncertainty to the forecast. On the one
hand, the price could conceivably be quite low, depending on the outcome of
marketing efforts for Xinjiang cotton in Eastern China and overseas. Since the
original model was estimated on the basis of a single national price, a
weighted average of announced purchase prices for Xinjiang and the rest of
China was used to forecast Xinjiang production. While producers in Xinjiang
might in fact be expecting to be paid less than this average, reports that the
region was nonetheless expected to plant expanded cotton area in 1998 suggests
that price expectations were not particularly low.

Even finding the appropriate 1997 prices for the other four regions of China
involves potential pitfalls. Generally speaking, the role of markets in
producer decisionmaking in China has grown in recent years. It is difficult to
discern changes in the relative weights producers now give to procurement
prices and free-market prices when forming their expectations. In calendar
1997, government procurement prices rose for wheat, corn, and rice, but
free-market prices fell sharply. Weighing equally the percent changes in
government and free-market prices suggest that inflation adjusted price
declines in 1997 for rice, corn, and wheat were 10, 4, and 3 percent,
respectively. Peanuts and soybeans each rose 11 percent. Cotton procurement
prices were officially unchanged from the year before in 1997, and therefore
fell only slightly in inflation-adjusted terms.

To summarize, the factors favoring cotton production in 1998/99 include falling
grain prices in calendar 1997, falling input prices in 1997, falling vegetable
prices, and slower economic growth in China. Cotton is a labor intensive crop
in China, and for much of the 1990's economic opportunities elsewhere drew
farmers to other crops and other sectors of the economy.

Factors suggesting lower cotton production in 1998/99 include rising peanut and
soybean prices during calendar 1997, a falling real cotton procurement price
during calendar 1997 (a first since 1993), earlier than usual flooding along
the Yangtze, and an unprecedented reduction in official national procurement
prices in 1998. While China has in the past indirectly reduced procurement
prices by withdrawing regional bonuses or withdrawing national bonuses of
grain, fuel, or fertilizer, 1998 marks the first time the government has
signaled producers through a direct procurement price reduction.

                              *     *    *

The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0498) will be released on August 13.

******************************************************************************

ERS will publish only 5 issues of this report in 1998. Reports will be released
in March, May, July, August, and November. We will continue to publish the
Cotton and Wool Yearbook, which will be released in late November. During the
months when the Cotton and Wool Outlook are not published, selected tables from
the report will be updated and available on the Internet. Check the ERS web
site (http://www.econ.ag.gov) for these reports and for other publications
relating to cotton.

******************************************************************************

Information Contacts:
Leslie Meyer  (U.S. Cotton)             lmeyer@econ.ag.gov    (202) 694-5307
Steve MacDonald (Foreign Cotton)        stephenm@econ.ag.gov  (202) 694-5305
Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool)      rskinner@econ.ag.gov  (202) 694-5313

******************************************************************************

U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   1997/98
                                         ----------------------------
Item                          1996/97     May        Jun         Jul
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Upland:                                      Million acres
  Planted                      14.38     13.56      13.56       13.56
  Harvested                    12.61     13.02      13.02       13.02
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           701       673        673         673

                                        Million 480-lb. bales 
  Beginning stocks              2.54      3.92       3.92        3.92
  Production                   18.41     18.28      18.25       18.25
    Total supply 1/            21.36     22.21      22.17       22.17
  Mill use                     11.02     11.29      11.29       11.29
  Exports                       6.40      7.05       6.90        6.96
   Total use                   17.42     18.44      18.19       18.25
  Ending stocks                 3.92      3.75       3.95        3.89
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio           22.5      20.3       21.7        21.3
  
Extra-long staple:                           1,000 acres
  Planted                        258       250        250         250
  Harvested                      256       249        249         249
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           991     1,056      1,056       1,056

                                         1,000 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks                66        51         51          51
  Production                     529       548        548         548
    Total supply 1/              595       599        599         599
  Mill use                       106       110        110         110
  Exports                        466       450        450         450
    Total use                    572       560        560         560
  Ending stocks                   51        49         49          49
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio            8.9       8.8        8.8         8.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports.

WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   1997/98
                                        ------------------------------
Item                          1996/97     May         Jun        Jul
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Supply:                                 Million 480-lb. bales
Beginning stocks
  World                        33.76     36.26      36.81       37.02
  Foreign                      31.15     32.29      32.84       33.05
Production
  World                        89.41     88.63      89.98       90.80
  Foreign                      70.47     69.83      71.19       72.01
Imports
  World                        29.18     27.02      26.65       26.82
  Foreign                      28.78     27.02      26.64       26.82
Use:
Mill use
  World                        88.24     88.55      88.42       88.13
  Foreign                      77.12     77.05      77.02       76.73
Exports
  World                        26.84     26.12      26.11       26.17
  Foreign                      19.97     18.62      18.76       18.77
Ending stocks
  World                        37.02     36.95      38.57       40.11
  Foreign                      33.05     33.15      34.57       36.16

Stocks-to-use ratio                            Percent
  World                         42.0      41.7       43.6        45.5
  Foreign                       42.9      43.0       44.9        47.1

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates.

FIBER SUPPLY
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         1998                    1997
                              -----------------------------
Item                             Mar      Apr         May        May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Ginnings                         0         0          0           0
Imports since August 1           2.7       2.9         NA       402.0
  Stocks, beginning           12,091    10,231      8,606       8,511
    At mills                     685       703        733         698
    Public storage             9,824     8,187      6,832       6,409
    CCC stocks                 2,564     2,060      2,453       1,495

Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Production                   922.6      886.8     864.0       823.0
    Noncellulosic              889.8      852.7     831.9       778.9
    Cellulosic                  32.8       34.1      32.1        44.1
    Total since January 1    2,561.3    3,448.1   4,312.1     4,318.5

                                          1998                   1997
                              ----------------------------
                                Feb       Mar        Apr          Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Million pounds
  Raw fiber imports            102.2      118.2     118.7       110.3
   Noncellulosic                93.3      110.1     111.7       101.9
    Cellulosic                   8.9        8.1       7.0         8.4
    Total since January 1      206.2      324.4     443.1       559.3

Wool and Mohair:                            1,000 pounds
  Raw wool imports, clean      5,390      7,230     7,872       6,634
    48's-and-finer             3,945      5,579     5,742       4,608
    Not-finer-than-46's        1,445      1,651     2,130       2,026
    Total since January 1     14,180     21,410    29,282      23,607

  Wool top imports                61        204       218         167
    Total since January 1        344        548       766         568
  Mohair imports, clean            0          0         0           0
    Total since January 1      2,101      2,101     2,101       3,243
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available.

COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1998                   1997
                              ----------------------------
Item                             Mar       Apr        May         May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
All consumed by mills 1/         972       956        935         979
  Total since August 1 1/      7,625     8,581      9,516       9,290
  SA annual rate 2/           11,224    11,092     11,174      11,200
  SA daily rate 2/              43.0      42.5       42.8        42.9
  Daily rate                    44.2      43.5       44.5        44.5

Upland consumed by mills 1/      962       946        925         970
  Total since August 1 1/      7,550     8,496      9,421       9,202
  Daily rate                    43.7      43.0       44.1        44.1
                                          1,000 Spindles
Spindles in place              5,437     5,440      5,451       5,593
  Active spindles              5,108     5,154      5,166       5,294
    100 percent cotton         2,563     2,637      2,608       2,570
    100 percent manmade          778       784        800         896
    Blends                     1,767     1,733      1,758       1,828
                                             Percent
Cotton's share of fibers        77.9      78.1       78.1        77.7

Manmade:                                    1,000 pounds
Total consumed by mills 1/   132,049   128,517    126,028     134,570
  Total since August 1 1/    994,112 1,122,628  1,248,656   1,253,118
  Daily rate                   6,002     5,842      6,001       6,117
    Noncellulosic staple       5,527     5,302      5,555       5,477
    Cellulosic staple            475       540        446         640
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted.

FIBER EXPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1998                   1997
                                -------------------------
Item                             Feb       Mar        Apr         Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Upland exports                 718       822        618         676
    Total since August 1       3,768     4,590      5,208       4,739
  Sales for next season           93       224        229         164
    Total since August 1         392       617        846         616
ELS exports                     59.4      65.5       51.4        34.6
    Total since August 1       255.8     321.5      372.8       390.2
  Sales for next season         11.9      55.0       15.7        18.4
    Total since August 1        39.2      94.2      109.9        71.8

Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Raw fiber exports             82.6      90.7       91.0        96.3
    Noncellulosic               79.1      87.1       88.0        83.5
    Cellulosic                   3.5       3.6        3.0        12.8
    Total since January 1    1,615.0   1,702.1    1,793.1       397.8

Wool and Mohair:                           1,000 pounds
  Raw wool exports, clean       30.8     247.2       23.1       385.1
   Total since January 1       382.6     629.8      652.9     1,307.0
  Wool top exports             271.4     544.3      836.7       444.4
    Total since January 1    1,138.8   1,683.1    2,519.8     2,256.8
  Mohair exports, clean         29.9      73.4      336.5       146.4
    Total since January 1       75.2     148.6      485.1       592.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------

FIBER PRICES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1998                   1997
                             -----------------------------
Item                            Apr        May       Jun          Jun
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Domestic cotton prices:                    Cents per pound
  Adjusted world price         51.29     51.39      55.43       66.66
  Jul'98 futures               64.89     66.51      75.91       77.81
  Dec'98 futures               68.99     70.48      75.51       74.93
Upland spot 41-34              61.88     65.21      73.50       71.03
  Pima spot 03-46             102.57    104.00     104.00      108.07
  Avg. price received by:
    Upland producers           62.20     63.50      66.50       67.10

  Mill delivered:
    Cotton
      Actual                   69.50     71.78      80.87       77.09
      Raw fiber equivalent     77.22     79.76      89.86       85.66
    Rayon staple
      Actual                  115.00    115.00     115.00      115.00
      Raw fiber equivalent    119.79    119.79     119.79      119.79
    Polyester staple
      Actual                   71.00     71.00      71.00       68.00
      Raw fiber equivalent     73.96     73.96      73.96       70.83

    Price ratios                               Percent
      Cotton/rayon              64.5      66.6       75.0        71.5
      Cotton/polyester         104.4     107.8      121.5       120.9

Northern Europe cotton quotes:            Cents per pound
  A Index                      65.08     64.61      68.06       80.84
  Memphis Territory            71.75     73.06      80.63       82.50
  California/Arizona           72.33        NQ         NQ       84.63
  B Index                      63.85        NQ         NQ       79.54
  Orleans/Texas                66.45     68.13      75.44       78.25

Wool prices (clean):                      Dollars per pound
 U.S. 56's                      1.12      1.23       1.06        1.50
  Australian 56's 1/            1.71      1.63       1.56        2.05
 U.S. 60's                      1.50      1.47       1.43        1.85
  Australian 60's 1/            1.80      1.85       1.64        2.18
 U.S. 64's                      1.88      1.77       1.70        2.55
  Australian 64's 1/            2.05      2.14       1.79        2.87
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
NQ = No quotes.
1/ In bond, Charleston, SC.

U.S. TEXTILE TRADE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1998                  1997
                            ------------------------------
Item                             Feb      Mar        Apr         Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Imports:                                   1,000 pounds 1/

  Yarn, thread, and fabric   197,240   232,089    240,309     209,167
    Cotton                    84,309   101,364    101,451      89,822
    Linen                     23,748    25,502     27,106      20,995
    Wool                       3,990     4,963      4,533       5,295
    Silk                         695       744        870         649
    Manmade                   84,500    99,517    106,348      92,406

  Apparel                    505,530   519,205    488,204     413,179
    Cotton                   309,664   318,581    295,775     245,923
    Linen                     13,840    12,353     11,359       8,435
    Wool                      12,368    13,659     13,988      12,898
    Silk                      12,220    11,457     10,143      11,810
    Manmade                  157,439   163,155    156,939     134,113

  Home furnishings            45,180    47,088     49,985      34,168
    Cotton                    34,858    36,157     38,088      25,146
    Linen                        107       213        149         131
    Wool                         117       167        163         144
    Silk                          42        17         17          33
    Manmade                   10,055    10,534     11,568       8,714

  Floor coverings             24,350    25,206     28,145      24,451
    Cotton                     3,871     3,390      4,195       4,108
    Linen                      3,042     3,295      3,496       2,916
    Wool                       7,212     7,670      9,247       6,720
    Silk                         499       471        585         348
    Manmade                    9,725    10,379     10,623      10,358

  Total imports 2/           778,671   829,827    814,084     687,867
    Cotton                   436,278   463,045    443,470     368,579
    Linen                     40,785    41,432     42,156      32,504
    Wool                      23,741    26,485     28,014      25,130
    Silk                      13,456    12,689     11,615      12,840
    Manmade                  264,411   286,175    288,829     248,815

Exports:                                 1,000 pounds 1/

  Yarn, thread, and fabric   172,298   186,440    172,322     133,208
    Cotton                    57,627    58,504     56,276      41,560
    Linen                      4,516     5,567      5,213       4,261
    Wool                       4,612     5,948      4,530       4,111
    Silk                       1,779     1,929      1,755       1,753
    Manmade                  103,764   114,492    103,764      81,524

  Apparel                    153,969   175,502    165,349     153,478
    Cotton                    88,452   102,385     99,332      93,872
    Linen                      1,543     1,566      1,703       2,556
    Wool                       8,986     9,853      8,667       7,878
    Silk                       4,029     3,753      3,742       3,197
    Manmade                   50,959    57,945     51,905      45,976

  Home furnishings             7,298     7,723      6,024       5,913
    Cotton                     4,417     4,593      3,827       3,464
    Linen                        455       362        271         248
    Wool                         126        95         61         121
    Silk                         190       191        135         205
    Manmade                    2,110     2,482      1,731       1,876

  Floor coverings             35,179    40,527     34,301      33,076
    Cotton                     3,352     3,950      3,100       3,065
    Linen                      1,941     2,111      1,635       1,384
    Wool                       2,968     3,603      3,071       1,656
    Silk                         131       160         84         ---
    Manmade                   26,786    30,702     26,412      26,970

  Total exports 2/           369,059   410,474    378,383     326,070
    Cotton                   153,919   169,522    162,621     142,021
    Linen                      8,463     9,616      8,831       8,462
    Wool                      16,705    19,516     16,345      13,791
    Silk                       6,130     6,033      5,715      16,775
    Manmade                  183,843   205,787    184,869     156,641
---------------------------------------------------------------------
--- = An absence of trade. 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes
headgear.

U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         1998                    1997
                             ----------------------------
Country                         Feb       Mar        Apr         Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    1,000 pounds 1/

North America                171,327   195,226    178,772     144,306
  Canada                      15,090    18,023     16,727      14,539
  Costa Rica                   7,461     8,979      7,460       6,389
  Dominican Republic          17,249    18,337     18,645      16,343
  El Salvador                 12,856    14,883     13,117      10,290
  Guatemala                    7,920     9,063      7,653       6,355
  Haiti                        2,368     2,711      2,689       1,334
  Honduras                    23,233    28,113     21,402      16,100
  Jamaica                      6,580     7,525      6,660       6,547
  Mexico                      75,474    84,762     81,515      64,308
  Nicaragua                    2,650     2,420      2,489       1,540

South America                  6,037     7,898      6,865       7,800
  Argentina                       24        81         17          13
  Brazil                       1,959     3,280      2,597       2,823
  Chile                           53        14         17         133
  Colombia                     2,083     2,042      2,037       2,300
  Peru                         1,563     2,050      1,721       2,088
  
Europe                        24,684    30,229     26,703      24,228
  Estonia                        686       817        986         818
  France                         578       569        583         611
  Germany                        615       554        667         501
  Italy                        2,733     3,236      2,851       2,848
  Portugal                     1,780     1,566      2,090       2,849
  Russia                       1,115       918      1,089         988
  Spain                          815     1,249      1,054       1,165
  Turkey                      12,009    16,528     13,002      10,787
  United Kingdom                 956       884        824         739
  
Asia                         216,865   208,672    208,665     184,160
  Bahrain                        927       736        745         680
  Bangladesh                  17,810    13,242     12,782      11,190
  China                       30,062    23,270     25,747      28,566
  Hong Kong                   21,714    18,822     21,274      19,081
  India                       29,534    36,327     31,010      29,031
  Indonesia                   15,781    12,105     14,078      12,351
  Israel                       2,014     2,759      2,212       1,899
  Japan                          788       858      1,002       1,410
  Macao                        3,834     2,979      2,937       3,312
  Malaysia                     3,972     3,797      4,185       3,619
  Nepal                        1,488     1,849      1,592       1,297
  Oman                         1,521     1,539      1,336       1,534
  Pakistan                    34,933    31,315     33,445      24,077
  Philippines                  8,367     9,364      9,189       7,963
  Qatar                        1,300     1,099      1,369         777
  Singapore                    2,296     1,345      1,780       1,341
  South Korea                  5,160     6,864      7,271       5,433
  Sri Lanka                    7,198     7,864      7,079       7,197
  Taiwan                       8,488    10,989     10,081      10,523
  Thailand                    10,436    11,611     10,306       7,755
  U Arab Em                    2,188     3,306      2,786       2,568

Oceania                        1,484     2,076      1,939         824
  Australia                      790     1,213      1,174         395
  Fiji                           526       507        523         225
 
Africa                        11,540    11,278     14,575      10,622
  Egypt                        6,019     8,068      8,217       5,633
  Lesotho                      1,263     1,127        728       1,222
  Mauritius                    1,548     1,333      1,756       1,168
  Morocco                        973     1,093      1,464         555
  South Africa                   362       734        737         525
  Tunisia                         73       116         74         229

World  2/                    436,278   463,045    443,470     368,579
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding.

U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1998                  1997
                             -----------------------------
Country                         Feb        Mar       Apr         Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   1,000 pounds 1/

North America                123,165   136,994    135,570     123,201
  Canada                      26,943    27,281     28,180      25,968
  Costa Rica                   6,961     5,729      6,629       7,326
  Dominican Republic          14,515    16,174     14,699      17,278
  El Salvador                  6,353     8,347      6,250       5,281
  Guatemala                    3,333     3,587      3,795       3,430
  Haiti                        1,432     1,641      1,258       1,426
  Honduras                    16,300    21,633     18,524      14,979
  Jamaica                      4,730     4,956      4,177       7,134
  Mexico                      41,118    46,085     50,553      39,108

South America                  6,577     5,560      4,701       5,229
  Argentina                      232       458        119         204
  Brazil                         683       631        578       1,098
  Chile                        2,538       592        476         536
  Colombia                     1,464     1,607      1,679       1,675
  Peru                            70       123         99         121
  Venezuela                    1,282     1,581      1,325         950

Europe                        12,663    14,855     11,913      11,889
  Belgium                      3,477     3,408      2,675       3 624
  France                         319       510        676         612
  Germany                      1,174     1,505      1,486       1,115
  Ireland                        946     1,892      1,683         309
  Italy                          472       346        302         315
  Netherlands                    803     1,123        749         717
  United Kingdom               3,862     3,880      2,741       3,208

Asia                           9,368    10,029      8,583      12,525
  China                          160       129        140         104
  Hong Kong                    2,024     1,195      1,245       1,538
  Israel                       1,113       762        752       1,153
  Japan                        3,817     4,427      3,526       5,134
  Philippines                    280       517        359         597
  Saudi Arabia                   260       460        329         509
  Singapore                      193       451        314         628
  South Korea                    149       332        325         560
  Taiwan                         295       328        400         285
  U Arab Em                      344       415        281         560

Oceania                          926       915        928       1,088
  Australia                      667       620        766         602
  New Zealand                     96       113        117         136

Africa                           981       923        657         979
  Egypt                           75        25         12           6
  Ghana                           20         5         77          71
  Ivory Coast                     30        65         15          26
  Nigeria                        298       220        242         161
  South Africa                   175       294        112         280

World  2/                    153,919   169,522    162,621     142,021
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent. Totals may not add due to rounding.

ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COTTON ACREAGE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                           Projected    Projected
State/          Actual       March        June
Region           1997       1998 1/       1998 2/       1998/1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                          1,000 acres                    Percent

Upland:
  Alabama         535          500           460            86
  Florida         100           95            90            90
  Georgia       1,440        1,350         1,400            97
  N. Carolina     670          620           700           104
  S. Carolina     290          260           250            86
  Virginia        101           95            95            94
    Southeast   3,136        2,920         2,995            96

  Arkansas        950          830           860            91
  Louisiana       630          570           550            87
  Mississippi     985          860           930            94
  Missouri        380          420           350            92
  Tennessee       490          450           450            92
    Delta       3,435        3,130         3,140            91

  Kansas           12           18            15           125
  Oklahoma        200          180           160            80
  Texas         5,500        5,600         5,300            96
    Southwest   5,712        5,798         5,475            96

  Arizona         325          260           250            77
  California      880          780           700            80
  New Mexico       70           60            60            86
    West        1,275        1,100         1,010            79

Total Upland   13,558       12,948        12,620            93

Pima:
  Arizona          22           15            13            59
  California      185          210           185           100
  New Mexico       11           12            11           100
  Texas            32           30           105           328

Total Pima        250          267           314           125

Total All      13,808       13,215        12,934            94
-------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Planting intentions as indicated by reports from farmers.
2/ Total acres planted or intended to be planted.