OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY              February 21, 1996
              Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR
U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is available 2-3 working days following release of
this summary.
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FISCAL 1996 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST RISES TO $60 BILLION
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is revised upward $2
billion to a record $60 billion as prospects for wheat, corn, and cotton
exports have further improved.  Tight global supplies and strong foreign
demand continue to push wheat, corn, and soybean prices upward.  The major
bulk commodity export volume forecast has been increased 5.8 million tons. 
Total export volume is forecast at 161.6 million tons.
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural imports is raised $500 million
to $29.5 billion.  Higher expected imports of tobacco and oilseed products
account for the increase.
 
The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is forecast at a record $30.5 billion in
fiscal 1996, $1.5 billion above the November forecast.  This forecast
surpasses the previous record of $26.6 billion set in fiscal 1981.
 
          Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1991-1996
                         -- Year beginning October 1 --
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                  :        :        :        :        :    Forecast 
Item     :  1991  :  1992  :  1993  :  1994  :  1995  :      1996
         :        :        :        :        :        :  Nov.  :   Feb.     
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         :                      -- Billion dollars --
Exports  :  37.5     42.3     42.5     43.5     54.1     58.0      60.0
         :
Imports  :  22.6     24.3     24.5     26.4     29.5     29.0      29.5
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Trade    :
 balance :  14.9     18.0     18.0     17.1     24.6     29.0      30.5
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         :                       -- Million tons --
Export   :
 volume  : 129.4    143.6    146.4    127.4    169.2    156.0     161.6
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This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the February 9, 1996, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
 
Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1994-96    
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                             :  October-November   :  Fiscal  :   Fiscal 1996
      Commodity              : 1994/95  : 1995/96  :   1995   :    Forecast
                             :          :          :          :  Nov. :  Feb.
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                             :              --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/          :  2.708      3.603     17.637      19.1    21.0
  Wheat & flour              :   .808      1.179      5.201       5.9     6.7
      Rice                   :   .225       .182      1.050       1.0     1.0
      Coarse grains 2/       :   .973      1.510      7.411       7.9     8.7
    Corn                     :   .838      1.395      6.619       7.2     7.8
  Feeds and fodders          :   .417       .443      2.511       2.8     3.0
                             :                                     
Oilseeds and products        :  1.692      1.727      9.119       9.9    10.0
  Soybeans                   :  1.040      1.122      5.274       6.1     6.3
  Soybean meal               :   .178       .176      1.079       1.3     1.3
  Soybean oil                :   .130       .079       .809        .5      .5
                             :                                     
Livestock products           :  1.325      1.465      7.808       8.8     8.8
  Beef, pork & variety meats :   .656       .786      4.044       4.8     4.7
  Hides & skins, incl. furs  :   .249       .269      1.719       1.9     1.9
Poultry & products           :   .379       .466      2.210       2.4     2.4
Dairy products               :   .125       .117       .812        .9      .9
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :   .230       .294      1.329       1.3     1.4
Cotton & linters             :   .362       .478      3.496       2.5     2.7
Seeds                        :   .115       .116       .680        .7      .7
Horticultural products       :  1.719      1.737      9.110      10.3    10.0
  Fruits & preparations      :   .559       .588      3.263       3.6     3.5
  Vegetables & preparations  :   .438       .393      2.538       2.9     2.6
  Tree nuts & preparations   :   .306       .342      1.108       1.2     1.2
Sugar, tropical, and other   :   .359       .354      1.940       2.1     2.1
                             :                                     
   Total 3/                  :  9.014     10.357     54.141      58.0    60.0
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Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1994-96          
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                             :   October-November   :  Fiscal  : Fiscal 1996
      Commodity              :  1994/95  : 1995/96  :   1995   :   Forecast
                             :           :          :          : Nov. :  Feb. 
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                             :            --Million metric tons--
Wheat                        :  5.688      6.065     32.094      30.5    33.5
Wheat flour                  :   .151       .064      1.184       1.3     1.0
Rice                         :   .854       .519      3.767       3.2     3.2
Coarse grains 2/             :  9.806     11.273     65.670      56.2    58.7
   Corn                      :  8.455     10.397     58.645      51.0    53.0
Feeds & fodders              :  2.043      2.189     13.483      13.3    13.8
Oilseeds and products        :  6.645      5.974     34.050      31.2    30.9
  Soybeans                   :  4.854      4.434     23.584      21.8    22.0
  Soybean meal               :   .963       .862      6.094       5.5     5.3
  Soybean oil                :   .208       .125      1.216        .9      .8
Beef, pork & variety meats   :   .206       .240      1.262       1.5     1.5
Poultry meat                 :   .309       .389      1.901       2.1     2.2
Animal fats                  :   .288       .292      1.725       2.1     2.1
Cotton & linters             :   .244       .268      2.068       1.6     1.7
Horticultural products       :  1.321      1.242      7.001       8.0     7.5
Other                        :   .937       .991      4.999       5.0     5.5
   Total agriculture         : 28.492     29.506    169.204     156.0   161.6
   Major bulk products 4/    : 21.446     22.559    127.183     113.3   119.1
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1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.  4/ Includes wheat,
rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.
 
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