COTTON AND WOOL                                                April 11, 1995
            Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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COTTON AND WOOL Outlook is published monthly (except January) by the Economic
Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. 
CWS--0495.  
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Larger Acreage Projected in 1995
 
Farmers intend to plant 16.2 million acres of cotton in 1995, according to
USDA's Prospective Plantings report released March 31.  Upland acreage is
projected at 16 million acres and extra-long staple (ELS) at 188,000.  Upland
area is expected to expand by nearly 2.5 million acres (18 percent) from 1994. 
A zero percent acreage reduction program for upland cotton, along with
significantly higher prices than a year ago, could lead to the highest cotton
area since 1962.  ELS acreage is forecast up nearly 12 percent from 1994.
 
The expansion of cotton acreage continues in the Southeast.  Over 3 million
acres are projected for this season, up a whopping 45 percent from last
season's impressive figures and the largest since 1955.  Leading the climb in
the Southeast is Georgia, where acreage is projected to increase over 500,000
in 1995.  Area there is estimated at 1.4 million acres, the largest since
1952.  Other Southeastern States also show dramatic gains.
 
Increased acreage also is projected for the other 3 regions.  Delta acreage is
expected to rise 15 percent above 1994 to 4.7 million acres, the largest since
1972.  Area in the Southwest is estimated at nearly 6.6 million acres (up 15
percent), while the West is projected near 1.6 million (up 6 percent).  
 
As of April 9, 6 percent of the crop had been planted, compared with 8 percent
last year.  Crop progress in the Western States remains behind schedule. 
Plantings in Arizona were 32 percent complete, compared with the 5-year
average of 38 percent.  In California, only 5 percent of the crop had been
planted, well below the 21-percent average.  However, 11 percent of the
acreage in Texas had been planted by early April, matching the 5-year average.
Plantings are just getting under way in the Delta and Southeastern States.  
 
The first official USDA cotton production estimate for 1995/96, based on the
Prospective Plantings report, along with the other supply and demand estimates
will be released on May 10, 1995.  Meanwhile, the 1994 U.S. cotton production
estimate was revised slightly to more closely reflect the latest Cotton
Ginnings data.  In late March, the National Agricultural Statistics Service
estimated 1994/95 cotton ginnings at 19.65 million bales (upland-19.31 million
and ELS-337,200).  USDA's current estimate for 1994 cotton production is 19.67
million bales, slightly below the previous 19.73-million-bale estimate.  Final
1994 production will also be released on May 10.
 
Mill Demand Solid
 
Cotton mill consumption remains impressive, according to the latest U.S.
Commerce Department consumption data.  Based on a calendar month, preliminary
February cotton mill use totaled 895,000 bales, down from January's 961,000
bales.  On a daily basis, however, February mill use reached 44,700 bales per
day, up 1,000 bales from the revised January estimate.  Compared with a year
ago, February's daily average was 3,800 bales higher.
 
Cotton mill use during the first 7 months of 1994/95 totaled 6.5 million
bales, compared with nearly 5.9 million last season.  On a seasonally adjusted
annual rate basis, February's consumption declined from the previous month but
remained above the 11.3-million-bale level.  The current USDA mill use
estimate for 1994/95 remains at 11.3 million bales, nearly a million bales
above 1993/94.
 
Cotton's share of fiber use on the cotton system decreased slightly in
February to 76.6 percent.  However, cotton's share has averaged 76.9 percent
so far this season.  The continued strength in domestic demand for denim,
apparel, and home furnishings, in addition to the cotton textile export
demand, is expected to keep cotton's share of fiber use near current levels
and the highest since the 1967 season.
 
U.S. Textile Trade Deficit Increases in January
 
Textile imports in January jumped 97 million pounds (17 percent) from December
to 6.56 million (raw fiber equivalent).  Imports of all fibers increased from
a month earlier.  Cotton textile imports rose nearly 36 million pounds (12
percent) with increases in all major end-use categories.  Manmade imports
increased 30 million pounds, with the January rise largely attributed to
apparel products.
 
January textile exports fell below December shipments, dropping 5 million
pounds (2 percent) to 218 million.  Total exports declined in all major fibers
and all major end uses except linen and silk apparel products.  Yarn, thread,
and fabric exports accounted for 50 percent of total January exports.  Cotton
and manmade fiber exports both declined about 2 million pounds from a month
earlier.
 
However, export volumes for January 1995, compared with a year ago, were
nearly 23 million pounds (12 percent) higher.  Apparel shipments were 12
million pounds or 19 percent above January 1994.  Textile exports of all
fibers, except linen, experienced gains.
 
Overall, the January textile trade deficit was 438 million pounds, with cotton
accounting for 56 percent of the total (245 million pounds).  The deficit
increased over 100 million pounds, compared with a month earlier, and was 52
million above January 1994.  Similarly, the cotton textile trade deficit was
217 million pounds (56 percent of the total) in January 1994.
 
Foreign Production, Consumption, and Trade
 
Historical revisions dominated this month's changes, with 1993/94 ending
stocks revised down 1.1 million bales largely due to new consumption figures
for Brazil and Pakistan.  At 27.3 million bales, 1994/95 ending stocks were
also lowered about 1 million bales as forecast production and consumption each
fell about 200,000 bales.  World exports were also forecast 200,000 bales
lower, at 28.7 million.  U.S. exports in 1994/95 were unchanged at 10 million
bales. U.S. shipments in the last month have maintained a pace consistent with
the current forecast, and commitments have been stable at 10.8 million 480-
pound bales.
 
Consumption Revised Up for 1993/94, Down for 1994/95
 
Additional Brazilian data have led to a reassessment of Brazilian cotton use
over the last 2 months, resulting in trade adjustments in March and extensive
upward revisions in consumption during April.  Consumption was revised back as
far as 1986, and continued through to a 200,000-bale increase in expected
1994/95 consumption.  Corresponding adjustments in stocks culminated in an
880,000-bale cut in expected 1994/95 ending stocks.  This accounted for most
of this month's changes in world ending stocks.
 
Pakistan's 1993/94 consumption was also raised 200,000 bales, and the forecast
for 1994/95 was raised 400,000 bales as continued strong exports of Pakistan's
cotton products suggest stable, rather than declining mill use.  Consumption
in both 1993/94 and 1994/95 is now estimated at 6.7 million bales.
 
While historical revisions in Pakistan and Brazil raised estimated 1993/94
foreign consumption 370,000 bales this month, the forecast for 1994/95 fell
about 200,000 bales, to 73.7 million.  In China, total yarn production has
been lagging year-earlier levels by 12 percent through the first half of the
year.  Yarn production has reportedly been hampered by mill refurbishment and
difficulties in procuring cotton.  While amelioration of these difficulties is
expected, the weakness in mill consumption to date led to a 500,000-bale
decline in the forecast for China's 1994/95 cotton consumption.  Consumption
is now expected to total 20 million bales, 4 percent below 1993/94.
 
Foreign 1994/95 Production Lowered
 
Foreign production was lowered slightly this month, to 64.1 million bales. 
Uzbekistan's 1994/95 production estimate was lowered 155,000 bales based on
official seed cotton data from the Commonwealth of Independent States
Statistical Committee.  Lower production is also estimated for Mali (down
100,000 bales this month) and Burkina Faso (75,000 bales).  However, continued
good weather led to a 200,000-bale increase for Brazil, where record yields
are currently forecast for soybeans and corn as well as cotton.
 
Offsetting changes occurred in South Asia's estimated 1994/95 production this
month.  A slow pace of arrivals led to a 200,000-bale cut in the forecast for
India's 1994/95 crop, but accelerating arrivals supported a 200,000-bale
increase in Pakistan's.  Gin deliveries in Pakistan surpassed year-earlier
levels by more than 400 percent during February-March.
 
Cotton Prices Continue Higher
 
U.S. cotton prices moved higher in March, continuing its historical rise this
season.  The average price received by upland producers advanced through mid-
March to 85.1 cents per pound, compared with a revised February price of 81.6
cents and 66.1 cents a year ago.  Spot prices also moved upward.  The upland
spot price surpassed the dollar mark, averaging $1.04 during March, 12 cents
above February.  In addition, the ELS spot price reached $1.15 per pound, up
about a nickel from February.
 
Similarly, mill-delivered upland prices continue to reach new heights,
averaging about $1.12 per pound in March.  The price was 12 cents above
February and more than 30 cents above March 1994.  Meanwhile, polyester prices
have risen modestly.  Although 15 cents above last year, March polyester
staple prices were only 86 cents per pound.  Despite polyester's price
advantage, mills have not decreased their cotton use.
 
The adjusted world price (AWP) remains above 90 cents, as the spring
transition period from old-crop to new-crop prices continues.  For the week of
April 7-13, the AWP equaled 93.09 cents per pound, down a penny from the
previous week.  After declining at the end of March, the A Index moved higher
in early April.  For the week ending April 6, the A Index averaged above $1.07
per pound with only 6 of the 14 styles quoted.  The Central Asian quote
remains the cheapest with about 7 cents separating it from the highest quote
in the A Index.
 
New Upland Quota Announced
 
With the limited import quota based on spot prices ending on April 6, the
continued high cotton prices have triggered a special import (Step 3) quota. 
The Step 3 quota is being established on April 12, and applies to upland
cotton purchased not later than July 10, 1995 and entered into the United
States not later than October 8, 1995.  The quota period of 180 days will
permit the importation of 103,082,657 pounds (214,756 bales) of upland cotton. 
The amount is equal to one week's consumption of upland cotton by domestic
mills at the seasonally adjusted average rate for the most recent 3 months for
which data are available.  Future quotas will be announced if price conditions
warrant.  No cotton was imported under the quota which ended April 6.
 
The next issue of the Cotton and Wool Outlook will be released on
May 11, 1995.  For further information, contact Bob Skinner,
Leslie Meyer, John Lawler, or Steve MacDonald at (202) 219-0840.
 
U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
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                                                    1994/95
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Item                         1993/94       Feb         Mar       Apr
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Upland:                                      Million acres
  Planted                      13.25      13.56      13.56     13.56
    Program                    11.44      11.11      11.11     11.11
  Harvested                    12.59      13.16      13.16     13.16
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           601        707        707       705
                                        Million 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks              4.46       3.30       3.30      3.30
  Production                   15.76      19.39      19.39     19.33
    Total supply               20.23      22.69      22.70     22.65
  Mill use                     10.35      11.02      11.22     11.22
  Exports                       6.56       9.23       9.61      9.61
    Total use                  16.90      20.24      20.83     20.83
  Ending stocks                 3.30       2.60       2.02      1.92
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio           19.5       12.9        9.7       9.2
Extra-long staple:                           1,000 acres
  Planted                        190        169        169       169
    Program                       89         84         84        84
  Harvested                      189        166        166       166
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           938        987        987       975
                                          1,000 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks               206        227        227       227
  Production                     370        342        342       338
    Total supply                 576        569        569       565
  Mill use                        72         85         85        85
  Exports                        307        375        390       390
    Total use                    379        460        475       475
  Ending stocks                  227         99         84        80
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio           59.9       21.5       17.7      16.8
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Based on USDA estimates.
 
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
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                                                   1994/95
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Item                         1993/94       Feb        Mar        Apr
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Supply:                                 Million 480-lb. bales
Beginning stocks
  World                        37.50      30.14      30.72     29.62
  Foreign                      32.84      26.61      27.19     26.09
Production
  World                        76.89      84.04      84.02     83.80
  Foreign                      60.76      64.31      64.29     64.13
Imports
  World                        27.90      29.78      29.81     29.68
  Foreign                      27.89      29.78      29.80     29.67
Use:
Mill use
  World                        85.44      84.99      85.20     84.98
  Foreign                      75.02      73.89      73.90     73.68
Exports
  World                        26.73      28.64      28.88     28.69
  Foreign                      19.86      19.04      18.88     18.69
Ending stocks
  World                        29.62      30.22      30.36     29.27
  Foreign                      26.09      27.52      28.26     27.27
Stocks-to-use ratio                            Percent
  World                         34.7       35.6       35.6      34.4
  Foreign                       34.8       37.2       38.2      37.0
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Based on USDA estimates.
 
FIBER SUPPLY
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                                 1994           1995            1994
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Item                             Dec        Jan        Feb       Feb
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Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Ginnings                     2,904        588        107       159
  Imports since August 1         6.6        7.7         NA       1.8
  Stocks, beginning            3,812      14,835    13,348    12,987
    At mills                     598         667       655       678
    Public storage            11,450      12,260    10,507    11,260
    CCC stocks                 2,338       2,861     3,111     2,067
 
Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Production                   817.9       815.3     791.2     756.2
    Noncellulosic              773.6       774.6     750.8     721.5
    Cellulosic                  44.3        40.7      40.4      34.7
    Total since January 1    9,622.4       815.3   1,606.5   1,560.7
 
                                      1994            1995      1994
                                ---------------
                                 Nov        Dec        Jan       Jan
                                --------------------------------------
                                            Million pounds
  Raw fiber imports             93.9        94.3      84.9      78.4
    Noncellulosic               87.4        87.8      78.5      65.3
    Cellulosic                   6.5         6.5       6.4      13.1
    Total since January 1      894.0       988.3      84.9      78.4
 
Wool and Mohair:                            1,000 pounds
  Raw wool imports, clean      8,116       7,313    10,441    10,002
    48's-and-finer             5,346       5,738     8,903     6,558
    Not-finer-than-46's        2,388       1,291     1,538     3,249
    Total since January 1     84,404      91,717    10,441    10,002
 
  Wool top imports             1,087         360       360       205
    Total since January 1      4,467       4,827       360       205
 
  Mohair imports, clean           41           5         4         0
    Total since January 1        212         217         4         0
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NA = Not available.
 
COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION
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                                1994              1995          1994
                                           ---------------
Item                             Dec        Jan        Feb       Feb
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
All consumed by mills 1/         785         961       895       818
  Total since August 1 1/      4,642       5,603     6,498     5,873
  SA annual rate 2/           11,157      11,363    11,312    10,304
  SA daily rate 2/              42.9        43.7      43.5      39.6
  Daily rate                    35.7        43.7      44.7      40.9
 
Upland consumed by mills 1/      778         952       885       811
  Total since August 1 1/      4,606       5,559     6,444     5,837
  SA annual rate 2/           11,083      11,259    11,191    10,218
  SA daily rate 2/              42.6        43.3      43.0      39.3
  Daily rate                    35.4        43.3      44.3      40.6
 
Spindles in place              7,266       7,262     7,267     7,924
  Active spindles              6,824       6,875     6,815     7,429
    100 percent cotton         2,918       2,942     2,944     3,214
    100 percent manmade        1,169       1,160     1,126     1,267
    Blends                     2,737       2,773     2,745     2,948
 
Cotton's share of fibers        77.0        77.1      76.6      76.1
 
Manmade:                                    1,000 pounds
Total consumed by mills 1/   112,299     136,738   131,248   123,343
  Total since August 1 1/    671,601     808,339   939,587   894,986
  Daily rate                   5,105       6,215     6,562     6,167
    Noncellulosic staple       4,354       5,356     5,688     5,248
    Cellulosic staple            751         859       874       919
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Adjusted to calendar month.  2/ SA = seasonally adjusted.
 
FIBER EXPORTS
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                                      1994            1995      1994
                                ----------------
Item                             Nov        Dec        Jan       Jan
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Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Upland exports                 695       1,072     1,068       709
    Total since August 1       1,866       2,938     4,006     2,481
  Sales for next season        2,775        -187         8        14
    Total since August 1       2,874       2,687     2,695       141
 
  ELS exports                   14.8        26.7      47.0      29.7
    Total since August 1        48.8        75.4     122.4     115.5
  Sales for next season          4.2         9.9      20.1       0.2
    Total since August 1         4.2        14.1      34.1       1.8
 
Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Raw fiber exports             83.4        88.4      89.2      63.3
    Noncellulosic               75.9        81.4      83.5      60.1
    Cellulosic                   7.5         7.0       5.7       3.2
    Total since January 1      825.9       914.3      89.2      63.3
 
Wool and Mohair:                           1,000 pounds
  Raw wool exports, clean        6.9       262.3     190.8     121.7
   Total since January 1     2,600.3     2,862.6     190.8     121.7
  Wool top exports           1,115.3     1,728.7     636.5     561.6
    Total since January 1   12,097.8    13,826.5     636.5     561.6
 
  Mohair exports, clean        900.4     1,081.7     874.1     879.1
    Total since January 1    7,652.1     8,733.8     874.1     879.1
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FIBER PRICES
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                                          1995                  1994
                               ---------------------------
Item                            Jan        Feb         Mar       Mar
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Domestic cotton prices:                    Cents per pound
  Adjusted World Price         80.66      85.84      95.83     68.17
  May'95 futures               90.43      93.78     104.72     73.83
  Dec'95 futures               74.42      75.25      77.43        NA
  Upland spot 41-34            88.11      91.89     104.20     72.74
  Pima spot 03-46             108.88     110.61     115.02     93.65
  Avg. price received by:
    Upland producers           79.70      81.60      85.10     66.10
 
  Mill delivered:
    Cotton
      Actual                   95.17     100.06     111.91     79.42
      Raw fiber equivalent    105.74     111.18     124.34     88.24
    Rayon staple
      Actual                  104.00     104.00     104.00    103.00
      Raw fiber equivalent    108.33     108.33     108.33    107.29
    Polyester staple
      Actual                   82.00      86.00      86.00     71.00
      Raw fiber equivalent     85.42      89.58      89.58     73.96
 
    Price ratios                               Percent
      Cotton/rayon              97.6      102.6      114.8      82.2
      Cotton/polyester         123.8      124.1      138.8     119.3
 
Northern Europe cotton quotes:            Cents per pound
  A Index                      95.63     100.51     110.63     82.06
  Memphis Territory           100.31     103.94     116.65     83.75
  California/Arizona          105.06     108.69     121.30     83.60
  B Index                      96.60      98.39     108.67     79.01
  Orleans/Texas                97.56     101.13     113.30     81.15
 
Wool prices (clean):                      Dollars per pound
  U.S. 56's                     1.45       1.55       1.63      1.11
  Australian 56's 1/            2.32       2.45       2.62      1.64
  U.S. 60's                     1.66       1.82       1.99      1.26
  Australian 60's 1/            2.47       2.61       2.70      1.81
  U.S. 64's                     2.45       2.52       2.65      1.70
  Australian 64's 1/            2.91       2.97       3.02      2.05
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available.
1/ In bond, Charleston, SC.
 
TEXTILE TRADE
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                                      1994            1995      1994
                             -------------------
Item                            Nov         Dec        Jan       Jan
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Imports:                                   1,000 pounds 1/
 
  Yarn, thread, and fabric   158,101    179,254    208,050   185,650
    Cotton                    70,193     83,394     83,807    75,525
    Linen                     19,599     27,808     49,940    49,707
    Wool                       4,322      3,470      3,610     4,781
    Silk                         908        696        698       258
    Manmade                   63,079     63,885     69,994    55,379
 
  Apparel                    386,329    327,367    392,530   334,344
    Cotton                   213,810    189,844    219,876   183,764
    Linen                     16,232     10,152     15,741    17,117
    Wool                      15,001      8,639     10,609     8,156
    Silk                      12,604     11,567     14,415    17,175
    Manmade                  128,682    107,165    131,889   108,132
 
  House furnishings           28,354     28,593     31,859    26,365
    Cotton                    19,753     20,276     24,199    20,483
    Linen                        131        221        195        68
    Wool                         133        133        121        44
    Silk                          23         22          6        10
    Manmade                    8,314      7,941      7,338     5,760
 
  Floor covering              17,563     19,012     16,668    17,889
    Cotton                     3,599      3,863      4,353     5,134
    Linen                      3,065      3,389      2,627     1,429
    Wool                       3,379      5,124      3,822     6,242
    Silk                         439        499        402       210
    Manmade                    7,081      6,186      5,465     4,874
 
  Total imports 2/           595,346    559,434    656,206   570,892
    Cotton                   309,031    299,592    335,758   287,605
    Linen                     13,976     12,734     15,524    68,516
    Wool                      23,014     17,509     18,299    19,394
    Silk                      39,075     41,872     68,960    17,654
    Manmade                  210,250    187,726    217,665   177,723
 
Exports:                                  1,000 pounds 1/
 
  Yarn, thread, and fabric   116,093    114,805    108,558   102,203
    Cotton                    37,800     37,800     37,305    28,150
    Linen                      3,462      3,477      2,673     2,053
    Wool                       2,924      3,474      3,332     2,485
    Silk                       1,754      1,464        887     1,095
    Manmade                   70,153     69,243     67,921    68,420
 
  Apparel                     87,686     76,977     75,380    63,317
    Cotton                    53,885     49,127     47,827    40,647
    Linen                      2,195      1,793      2,087     1,396
    Wool                       3,111      2,410      2,554     2,182
    Silk                       1,488      1,042      1,225     1,117
    Manmade                   27,008     22,605     21,688    17,975
 
  House furnishings            7,403      5,903      4,096     4,195
    Cotton                     4,167      3,308      2,498     2,540
    Linen                        318        277        163       160
    Wool                          77         81         40        35
    Silk                         183        198         73        90
    Manmade                    2,657      2,038      1,322     1,370
 
  Floor covering              28,422     25,833     26,558    25,705
    Cotton                     3,550      3,119      3,166     3,139
    Linen                      1,271      1,127      1,240     1,253
    Wool                       1,424      1,318      1,322     1,342
    Silk 3/                      ---        ---        ---       ---
    Manmade                   22,177     20,268     20,830    19,971
 
  Total exports 2/           240,182    223,812    218,453   195,594
    Cotton                    99,474     92,743     90,827    74,497
    Linen                      7,261      2,705      2,184     4,866
    Wool                       7,565      7,304      7,259     6,056
    Silk                       3,424      6,683      6,171     2,302
    Manmade                  122,458    114,378    112,011   107,873
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent.  2/ Includes headgear.  3/ Absence of trade.
 
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COTTON ACREAGE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
State/          Actual       Actual      Projected
Region           1993         1994          1995 1/     1995/1994
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                          1,000 acres                    Percent
 
Upland:
  Alabama         443          468           600            128
  Florida          54           69            75            109
  Georgia         615          885         1,400            158
  N. Carolina     390          487           700            144
  S. Carolina     202          225           280            124
  Virginia         23           42            95            225
    Southeast   1,727        2,176         3,150            145
 
  Arkansas        990          980         1,080            110
  Louisiana       890          900         1,010            112
  Mississippi   1,330        1,280         1,500            117
  Missouri        345          352           480            136
  Tennessee       625          590           660            112
    Delta       4,180        4,102         4,730            115
 
  Kansas            2            1             2            121
  Oklahoma        370          360           370            103
  Texas         5,550        5,450         6,200            114
    Southwest   5,922        5,811         6,572            113
 
  Arizona         316          313           340            109
  California    1,050        1,100         1,170            106
  New Mexico       54           55            50             91
    West        1,420        1,468         1,560            106
 
Total Upland   13,248       13,558        16,012            118
 
Pima:
  Arizona          57           48            49            102
  California       91           81           100            123
  New Mexico       11           11            14            127
  Texas            31           29            25             88
 
Total Pima        190          169           188            112
 
Total All      13,438       13,726        16,200            118
-------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Planting intentions as indicated by reports from farmers.