COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK United States Department of Agriculture

CWS-0699 Economic Research Service

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Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board July 13, 1999

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HIGHLIGHTS

C Cotton Area Raised Further in 1999

C Higher Production and Offtake Projected

C
Higher Production and Offtake Projected
Foreign Area Drops Only Slightly in 1999/2000
to help bring down crops in Syria and Israel by about 100,000 bales each, and declines of 50,000
the year before in 1999/2000, foreign imports are forecast 1.3 million bales higher, at 25.7 million. 

U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES

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 1998/99

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Item 1997/98 May Jun Jul

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Upland: Million acres

 Planted 13.648 13.064 13.064 13.064

 Harvested 13.157 10.449 10.449 10.449

 Pounds

 Yield/harvested acre 666 619 619 619

 Million 480-lb. bales

 Beginning stocks 3.920 3.822 3.822 3.822

 Production 18.245 13.476 13.476 13.476

 Total supply 1/ 22.178 17.678 17.678 17.678

 Mill use 11.234 10.365 10.365 10.305

 Exports 7.060 3.800 3.800 3.850

 Total use 18.294 14.165 14.165 14.155

 Ending stocks 3.822 3.488 3.488 3.498

 Percent

 Stocks-to-use ratio 20.9 24.6 24.6 24.7

 

Extra-long staple: 1,000 acres

 Planted 250 328 328 328

 Harvested 249 235 235 235

 Pounds

 Yield/harvested acre 1,056 904 904 904

 1,000 480-lb. ctles

 Beginning stocks 51 65 65 65

 Production 548 442 442 442

 Total supply 1/ 599 527 527 527

 Mill use 115 135 135 145

 Exports 440 300 300 300

 Total use 555 435 435 445

 Ending stocks 65 112 112 107

 Percent

Stocks-to-use ratio 11.7 25.7 25.7 24.0

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Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES

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 1998/99

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Item 1997/98 May Jun Jul

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Supply: Million 480-lb. bales

Beginning stocks

 World 38.18 41.17 40.85 40.76

 Foreign 34.20 37.29 36.96 36.88

Production

 World 91.58 84.07 84.35 84.36

 Foreign 72.79 70.15 70.43 70.44

Imports

 World 26.39 24.80 24.50 24.72

 Foreign 26.38 24.40 24.10 24.32

Use:

Mill use 

 World 88.45 84.79 84.71 85.00

 Foreign 77.10 74.29 74.21 74.55

Exports

 World 26.64 23.74 23.60 23.52

 Foreign 19.14 19.64 19.50 19.37

Ending stocks

 World 40.76 41.23 41.08 41.01

 Foreign 36.88 37.63 37.48 37.41

Stocks-to-use ratio Percent

 World 46.1 48.6 48.5 48.2

 Foreign 47.8 50.7 50.5 50.2

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Based on USDA estimates.
FIBER SUPPLY

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 1999 1998

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Item Mar Apr May May

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Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales

 Ginnings 0 0 0 0 

Imports since August 1 84.1 203.5 NA 13.0

 Stocks, beginning 8,698 7,581 6,642 8,411
FIBER EXPORTS

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 1999 1998

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Item Feb Mar Apr Apr

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Cotton: 1,000 480-lb. bales
TEXTILE TRADE

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 1999 1998 

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Item Feb Mar Apr Apr

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Imports: 1,000 pounds 1/

 Yarn, thread, and fabric 210,837 246,340 229,100 242,676

U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS

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 1999 1998

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Country Feb Mar Apr Apr

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 1,000 pounds 1/

North America 144,006 165,363 167,401 135,953 

 Canada 25,924 30,699 28,855 27,296

 Costa Rica 6,286 6,370 6,565 6,638

 Dominican Republic 14,143 16,746 17,232 14,744

 El Salvador 6,194 7,275 5,992 6,270

 Guatemala 2,703 3,673 3,699 3,796

 Haiti 1,576 1,891 2,353 1,253

 HonduONas 19,448 24,557 25,874 18,557

 Jamaica 3,784 3,338 3,265 4,183

 Mexico 62,414 69,015 71,929 50,801

South America 2,963 3,814 3,731 2,591