COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK                              July 13, 1999
July 1999, CWS-0699
              Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued 10 times a year by the Economic Research
Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. 
Electronic release only; no published copies are available.

COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual COTTON AND WOOL
YEARBOOK.  The yearbook summary for 1999 will be released on November 22,
1999.  Yearbooks are available in print from ERS-NASS Order Desk. For the
1999 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-CWS-1999, $21.
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HIGHLIGHTS

Cotton Area Raised Further in 1999
Higher Production and Offtake Projected
Foreign Consumption Rebounds, but Production Flat in 1999/2000  
Foreign Area Drops Only Slightly in 1999/2000
Consumption Partly Rebounds in 1999/2000
Foreign Imports and U.S. Exports Higher in 1999/2000
Textile Trade Decline From a Month Earlier

Cotton Area Raised Further in 1999

According to USDA's June Acreage report, U.S. producers have
planted nearly 14.6 million acres of cotton this season.  The
revised cotton area is 615,000 acres (4 percent) above the March
Prospective Plantings and nearly 1.2 million above 1998/99.  The
increase from last season is attributable to favorable relative
net returns for cotton over competing crops and the improvement
in planting conditions this season, particularly on the High
Plains of Texas.

Upland cotton acreage rose 9 percent from last season to 14.2
million acres.  Each region, except the West, reported area gains
of more than 300,000 acres from the 1998/99 season.  The
Southwest rose 6 percent to nearly 6.2 million acres, the Delta
expanded 17 percent to nearly 3.8 million, and the Southeast
increased 12 percent to about 3.4 million.  The West declined 4
percent to 930,000 acres.  Based on the Acreage report, the
largest upland increase came from the Delta, which rose more than
500,000 acres from last season.  ELS area, on the other hand,
declined slightly from a year ago to 318,000 acres.  While
changes in Texas (down 65,000 acres) and California (up 60,000
acres) were nearly offsetting, the implications for production
are more  significant as California ELS yields have surpassed
those in Texas by more than 200 pounds per harvested acre over
the last 5 years.

Despite some crop damage experienced recently in Texas, overall
U.S. crop conditions have remained favorable.  As of July 11, 60
percent of the cotton acreage was in "good" or "excellent"
condition, compared with only 34 percent in 1998.  In contrast,
only 14 percent of the U.S. crop is considered "poor" or "very
poor" this season, compared with last season's 35 percent.  While
conditions this season are better than those posted a year ago,
the development of the crop is behind both 1998 and the 5-year
average.  As of July 11, 77 percent of the crop was squaring,
compared with 80 percent for both 1998 and the 5-year average. 
Similarly, 27 percent of the cotton area was setting bolls,
compared with 42 percent last season and an average of 32
percent.

Higher Production and Offtake Projected

As a result of the increased acreage reported in June, the 1999
U.S. cotton production forecast was raised 700,000 bales this
month to 18.7 million, well above 1998/99's 13.9 million but
similar to the 1997 crop.  The increase from last season is the
result of not only larger area, but also an anticipated return to
more normal abandonment.  In 1999, abandonment is forecast at
only 7 percent, resulting in harvested area of 13.5 million
acres.  Last season, abandonment approached 20 percent.  Based on
these area and production estimates, the national average yield
is forecast at 665 pounds per harvested acre, slightly below the
long-term trend.  On August 12, the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS) will provide their initial survey
projections of cotton area to be harvested, yield, and
production, as well as an update on the planted acreage.

With higher U.S. production projected and carryin stocks
estimated at 3.6 million bales, total 1999/2000 cotton supplies
are expected to rise significantly.  For only the third time in
more than three decades, U.S. cotton supplies are likely to
exceed 22 million bales.  Total demand, although expected to rise
nearly 12 percent in 1999/2000, is not likely to rise as fast as
production.  Mill use is forecast at 10.6 million bales, only
slightly above 1998/99 as the recent surge in textile imports
have limited the U.S. mills' need to increase use dramatically. 
On the other hand, exports are projected to rebound to 5.7
million bales, 37 percent higher than the current season but
still below the 5-year average as an expected abundance of
foreign production will once again compete for a limited increase
in world cotton consumption.

Despite the anticipated improvement in U.S. cotton demand for the
upcoming season, these estimates assume the continuation of
current legislation and do not include any additional demand that
may result from the revival of the "Step 2" program.  Based on
these early projections, ending stocks are forecast to reach 6
million bales by July 31, 2000, a stocks-to-use ratio of nearly
37 percent.  At these levels, both ending stocks and the
stocks-to-use ratio would be the highest since 1988.

Foreign Consumption Rebounds, But Production Flat in 1999/2000

While foreign consumption is forecast to rise nearly 2 million
bales from the year before in 1999/2000, foreign cotton
production is forecast virtually unchanged at 70.5 million. 
While consumption is forecast higher than a year earlier, at 76.3
million bales, this would still be less consumption than in
1997/98 and 1996/97.  Exports from other countries are forecast
slightly higher than the year before in 1999/2000, up about
300,000 bales to 19.6 million; foreign imports are forecast 1.3
million bales higher than the year before, to 25.7 million. 
Foreign ending stocks are forecast about unchanged, but at 37.5
million bales, ending stocks as a share of consumption are
expected to be slightly lower than in 1998/99.

Larger expected U.S. supplies, combined with increased foreign
consumption and imports, are expected to result in higher U.S.
exports in 1999/2000, up 1.6 million bales to 5.7 million.  The
U.S. share of world trade is expected to reach 22.5 percent in
1999/2000, up from 18 percent in 1998/99 and near the U.S.
average achieved since the initiation of the marketing loan
program in 1986/87.

Foreign Area Drops Only Slightly in 1999/2000

Despite consistently negative developments in world prices during
1998/99, foreign cotton area in 1999/2000 is forecast only 1
percent lower than the year before.  At 28.2 million hectares, it
remains slightly above its 1986-98 average of 27.9 million. 
While India and China--the two largest foreign cotton
producers--are each expected to reduce area by at least 150,000
hectares, in percentage terms these only amount to declines of 2
and 3 percent, respectively.  In addition, declines of between
50,000 and 100,000 hectares are forecast for Argentina, Mexico,
and Australia. However, increases of between 50,000 and 100,000
hectares are foreseen for Pakistan, Sudan, Paraguay, and Brazil. 
These increases are, in part, accounted for by recoveries from
unusual weather in 1998/99, government efforts to promote cotton,
and, in the case of Brazil, a long-delayed currency devaluation.

Production of cotton outside the United States is forecast about
unchanged from the year before in 1999/2000 as rebounding
production in Uzbekistan and Pakistan offsets a 1.2-million-bale
decline foreseen for China's output.  At 19.5 million bales,
China's production is expected to be about 6 percent lower than
1998/99.  Cotton policy in China is undergoing significant
changes, and a goal of the government is to reduce the size of
the cotton harvest.  The government's production target was
reportedly about 16 million bales, which would have been the
smallest crop since 1981.  However, falling prices for grains
have in part sustained cotton area at about 4.3 million hectares. 
But, the prospect of substantially weaker cotton prices after
September 1 could result in reduced input use and yields this
year, and China's national average yield is forecast to fall
almost 4 percent from the year before.  The growing relative
importance of the high-yielding Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous Region
will again sustain the average yield even if every province's
yield is lower.

Production in Uzbekistan is expected to rebound by 700,000 bales
in 1999/2000 following a return to more normal June temperatures
this year.  Uzbekistan's cotton crop fell by more than 600,000
bales in 1998/99 due to cool early-season temperatures, and, with
area essentially unchanged since 1994, production is likely to
rebound to 5.3 million bales.  While higher than one year
earlier, Uzbekistan's production is still expected to be
significantly below its pre-1996 levels.

Pakistan's crop is also expected to rebound by 700,000 bales in
1999/2000, to 7 million.  The Pakistan Central Cotton Committee
has reportedly set a production target of 7.6 million bales, but
such targets have typically proven optimistic in recent years. 
Pakistan's cotton yield fell 10 percent in 1998/99 to its lowest
since the early 1980's.  While the unfavorable weather that cut
yields is not expected to be repeated, it remains to be seen if
Pakistan can overcome its chronic pest problems.

Crop increases of between 100,000 and 140,000 bales, compared
with the year before, are foreseen for Chad, Sudan, Burkina Faso,
Australia, and Brazil.  Increases of 50,000 to 65,000 are
foreseen for Tanzania, Paraguay, Senegal, and Peru.

A 350,000 bale decline is foreseen for Mexico's cotton harvest in
1999/2000 due to low world prices and a drought.  Prices for
cotton fell in India during 1998/99--albeit, not as substantially
as prices on world markets--and cotton production there is
expected to fall 150,000 bales as area declines and weather
remains comparable with previous seasons.  A regional drought is
expected to help bring down crops in Syria and Israel by about
100,000 bales each, and declines of 50,000 bales each are
foreseen for Egypt, Benin, and Turkey. 

Consumption Partly Rebounds in 1999/2000

After a severe decline in 1998/99--down 3 percent--foreign
consumption is expected to increase by 2.3 percent in 1999/2000,
to 76.3 million bales.  While no increase is expected for the
world's largest consumer, China, a number of countries are
expected to increase their consumption in 1999/2000, and
declining consumption is foreseen for very few countries, as
lower cotton prices and rebounding economies spur demand.

The largest increase is expected in India, where cotton use is
forecast to rebound 500,000 bales  to 12.7 million, about as much
consumption as in 1997/98.  India's garment exports have
reportedly been performing well in 1999, its economy is forecast
to grow at a 5.5-percent rate in 2000, and the economic
improvement observed for Southeast Asia in 1999 could ameliorate
the difficulties with yarn exports India reported earlier in the
current marketing year.

Brazil's financial crisis appears to be less damaging than was
expected a few months ago, and the devaluation of its currency
during the last year seems likely to improve the competitiveness
of its textile industry.  Brazilian cotton consumption is
forecast to rise 350,000 bales to 3.6 million.  According to
Oxford Economic Associates, Brazil's economy grew 0.2 percent in
1998, will shrink 1.6 percent in 1999, and grow 2.3 percent in
2000.  Brazil's cotton consumption is expected to remain below
the 3.9- to 4.0-million-bale level achieved during 1993-96, it is
forecast to rise 11 percent in 1999/2000 from the year before.

Consumption in Mexico and Turkey in 1999/2000 is forecast to rise
250,000 bales each compared with the year before, and increases
of between 50,000 and 100,000 bales each are forecast for
Indonesia, Pakistan, Taiwan, South Korea, Bangladesh, and
Portugal.  Italy is the only country where a significant
consumption decline is foreseen, a 150,000-bale drop to 1.4
million.  Declines of 50,000 bales each are foreseen for
consumption in Russia and Egypt.

China's consumption is not forecast to rebound in 1999/2000.  It
fell 3 percent in 1997/98 and 4 percent in 1998/99, but its
direction in the coming year is unclear.  Yarn production (all
fibers) has turned upwards in China in recent months, but exports
and consumer demand there remains weak,  suggesting that higher
yarn production could begin to add to yarn stocks and constrain
production in the slightly longer run.  On the other hand,
growing unemployment has dulled some of the ardor for rapid
reform of state-owned enterprises, and may also take some of the
momentum out of efforts to reduce the number of cotton spindles.
Also, the textile industry's net trade position may improve as
1999 progresses, due to lower cotton prices, streamlined
exporting regulations, increased value-added tax (VAT) rebates
for exports, and efforts to reduce import smuggling.  Given the
substantial uncertainties, it seems reasonable to assume no
change in China's cotton consumption in 1999/2000 from the 20
million bales estimated for 1998/99.

Foreign Imports and U.S. Exports Higher in 1999/2000

An improved outlook for foreign imports is a crucial component of
the expectation of increased U.S. exports in 1999/2000.  While
world imports are expected to rise only 1 million bales from the
year before in 1999/2000, foreign imports are forecast 1.3
million bales higher, at 25.7 million.  The only significant
foreign import decline foreseen is in Pakistan, where improved
production is expected to drive imports 250,000 bales lower. 
Higher imports are expected foremost in Mexico--550,000
bales--and Brazil--300,000 bales.  Import increases between
75,000 and 150,000 bales are expected I n Indonesia, Turkey,
South Korea, Taiwan, Egypt, and Thailand.  Despite these
increases, expected imports in 1999/2000 remain millions of bales
below the averages achieved during 1986-98 and during the 1990's.

The U.S. share of world trade in 1999/2000 is forecast to reach
22.5 percent, below its 1986-98 average of 24 percent.  But, the
U.S. share of world trade in 1999/2000 is forecast above the 20
percent share achieved in 1992/93 (the last time U.S. stocks/use
rose as high as 30 percent).  In 1992/93, Russia was importing
about 2.7 million bales of cotton under arrangements that largely
precluded importing from the United States.  Since Russia is now
forecast to import only about one-third as much cotton in
1999/2000 as it did in 1992/93, world trade is diminished by that
amount, but U.S. export opportunities are relatively better. 
Recalculating the U.S. share of world trade after Former Soviet
Union (FSU) imports are subtracted shows an expected U.S. share
of world trade in 1999/2000 that is essentially the same as in
1992/93.

In contrast, U.S. exports in 1999/2000 are forecast more than 1
million bales below their 1986-98 average, despite above-average
supplies.  By this measure, the current forecast for U.S. exports
is conservative, reflecting in part the offsetting effects of
forecasted increased production and exports by a number of the
United States' major competitors.  Uzbekistan's exports are
expected to increase 500,000 bales from the year before, in large
part due to improved production.  Similarly, Africa's Franc Zone
is expected to export about 200,000 additional bales in
1999/2000, and India's exports are expected to rise 150,000
bales.  With larger crops, larger exports are also expected from
Pakistan, Sudan, Paraguay, and Peru, but in each case the
expected increase is less than 100,000 bales.

Larger exports are also forecast from China, up 300,000 bales to
1 million, as late-season sales from 1998/99 are shipped during
the next marketing year, and as 1999/2000 crop cotton,
unencumbered by procurement and storage debts and procured at
substantially lower prices, becomes available.  Exports of 1
million bales would leave China with smaller ending stocks for
the first time in 5 years, even with a relatively large crop, and
no increase in consumption.  It would also represent a 3-year
pattern of export growth comparable to that for 1981-84, the
previous period of large export gains.

USDA substantially overestimated China's 1998/99 exports earlier
in the season as rapid price changes on world markets apparently
outpaced China's ability to develop a consensus on, and then
implement, policies designed to increase exports.  Since some of
these rapid price changes reflected world perceptions about
China's intentions, any 1999/2000 forecast about China's exports
must again take into account the feedback world prices could have
on China's willingness to use trade policy to pursue its goal of
adjusting its domestic supply-demand balance.  On the one hand,
the trend over the course of the last year has been one of
increasing exports, and as China devises new sets of solutions to
sets of impediments to exporting, one could conjecture the
development of "momentum" at either a commercial or policy-making
level that permits later realization of substantially larger
exports.  On the other hand, most estimates of the outlook for
world cotton supply and demand do not appear to hold much in the
way of prospects for significantly larger exports by China.  The
43-percent increase in China's export forecast for 1999/2000
provides a reasonable balance between China's increasing export
prowess and the realities of world market demand.

Textile Trade Declines From a Month Earlier

April textile trade data indicate imports declined 12 percent
from a month earlier to 858 million pounds (raw-fiber
equivalent).  April shipments were the lowest of 1999, but were
still 5 percent above a year earlier.  Overall, imports of all
fibers and all end-use categories were below March levels. 
Cotton textile imports, at 488 million pounds, accounted for 57
percent of all textile shipments, the same share as in March.

Total U.S. exports in April decreased 2 percent from the previous
month, but were 7 percent above a year earlier.  Shipments of all
fibers, except linen, declined from month-earlier levels.  In
addition all major end-use categories, except apparel, were below
March shipments.  Apparel exports at 173 million pounds,
accounted for 43 percent of total April shipments and were 5
percent above a year-ago.

Overall, the April textile trade deficit was 456 million pounds,
with cotton accounting for 66 percent of the total (300 million
pounds).  The April deficit declined 19 percent from a month
earlier, but was 4 percent above April 1998.  The deficit for the
first 4 months of 1999 was 2.1 billion pounds, compared with 1.7
billion a year ago.  With textile exports about matching 1998
shipments and increasing textile imports, the textile trade
deficit will likely increase again in 1999.

                             * * * * *

The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0799) will be released on
August 13, 1999.

*****************************************************************
Information Contacts:
Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles)  LMEYER@ECON.AG.GOV       
   (202) 694-5307
Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton)  STEPHENM@ECON.AG.GOV     
(202) 694-5305 
Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool)    RSKINNER@ECON.AG.GOV      
(202) 694-5313 
*****************************************************************
U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   1998/99
                                         ----------------------------
Item                          1997/98     May        Jun         Jul
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Upland:                                      Million acres
  Planted                     13.648    13.064     13.064      13.064
  Harvested                   13.157    10.449     10.449      10.449

                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           666       619        619         619

                                        Million 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks             3.920     3.822      3.822       3.822
  Production                  18.245    13.476     13.476      13.476
  Total supply 1/             22.178    17.678     17.678      17.678
  Mill use                    11.234    10.365     10.365      10.305
  Exports                      7.060     3.800      3.800       3.850
    Total use                 18.294    14.165     14.165      14.155
  Ending stocks                3.822     3.488      3.488       3.498
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio           20.9      24.6       24.6        24.7
  
Extra-long staple:                           1,000 acres
  Planted                        250       328        328         328
  Harvested                      249       235        235         235
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre         1,056       904        904         904

                                         1,000 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks                51        65         65          65
  Production                     548       442        442         442
    Total supply 1/              599       527        527         527
  Mill use                       115       135        135         145
  Exports                        440       300        300         300
    Total use                    555       435        435         445
  Ending stocks                   65       112        112         107
                                               Percent
Stocks-to-use ratio             11.7      25.7       25.7        24.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates.  1/ Includes imports.

WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   1998/99
                                        ------------------------------
Item                          1997/98     May        Jun         Jul
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Supply:                                 Million 480-lb. bales
Beginning stocks
  World                        38.18     41.17      40.85       40.76
  Foreign                      34.20     37.29      36.96       36.88
Production
  World                        91.58     84.07      84.35       84.36
  Foreign                      72.79     70.15      70.43       70.44
Imports
  World                        26.39     24.80      24.50       24.72
  Foreign                      26.38     24.40      24.10       24.32
Use:
Mill use 
  World                        88.45     84.79      84.71       85.00
  Foreign                      77.10     74.29      74.21       74.55
Exports
  World                        26.64     23.74      23.60       23.52
  Foreign                      19.14     19.64      19.50       19.37
Ending stocks
  World                        40.76     41.23      41.08       41.01
  Foreign                      36.88     37.63      37.48       37.41

Stocks-to-use ratio                            Percent
  World                         46.1      48.6       48.5        48.2
  Foreign                       47.8      50.7       50.5        50.2
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates.

FIBER SUPPLY
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         1999                   1998
                               ---------------------------                  
  
           
Item                             Mar       Apr         May       May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Ginnings                         0         0          0           0   
Imports since August 1          84.1     203.5         NA        13.0
  Stocks, beginning            8,698     7,581      6,642       8,411
    At mills                     605       570        593         733
    Public storage             7,500     6,780      5,629       6,832
    CCC stocks                 1,522       800        650       2,453

Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Production              872.5     872.7      851.8       864.0
    Noncellulosic              847.7     846.7      826.1       831.9
    Cellulosic                  24.8      26.0       25.7        32.1
    Total since January 1    2,502.0   3,374.7    4,226.5     4,312.1

                                         1999                    1998  
                               ----------------------------            
                                Feb        Mar        Apr         Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Million pounds
Raw fiber imports              121.4     140.0      132.6       118.7
    Noncellulosic              116.2     132.6      126.7       111.7
    Cellulosic                   5.2       7.4        5.6         7.0
    Total since January 1      231.6     371.6      503.9       443.1

Wool and Mohair:                            1,000 pounds
  Raw wool imports, clean      3,553     3,882      4,624       7,872       
    48's-and-finer             1,649     1,689      1,908       5,742
    Not-finer-than-46's        1,905     2,193      2,716       2,130
    Total since January 1      9,704    13,586     18,210      29,282

  Wool top imports                28       235        208         218
    Total since January 1         63       298        506         766
  Mohair imports, clean            0         0          0           0
    Total since January 1          0         0          0           2
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available.

COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1999                   1998
                               ---------------------------
Item                             Mar       Apr        May         May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
All consumed by mills 1/         940       888        861         934
  Total since August 1 1/      6,979     7,867      8,729       9,515
  SA annual rate 2/           10,371    10,218     10,248      11,163
  SA daily rate 2/              39.9      39.3       39.4        42.8
  Daily rate                    40.9      40.4       41.0        44.5

Upland consumed by mills 1/      926       875        847         924
  Total since August 1 1/      6,883     7,757      8,604       9,420
  SA daily rate 2/              39.3      38.7       38.7        42.3
  Daily rate                    40.3      39.8       40.3        44.0

Spindles in place              5,223     5,225      5,174       5,440
  Active spindles              4,784     4,794      4,669       5,082
    100 percent cotton         2,519     2,553      2,539       2,595
    100 percent manmade          766       770        754         800
    Blends                     1,499     1,471      1,376       1,687
                                             Percent 
Cotton's share of fibers        79.5      79.2       78.8        78.1

Manmade:                                    1,000 pounds
Total consumed by mills 1/   116,618   112,096    111,414     125,445
  Total since August 1 1/    859,260   971,356  1,082,770   1,248,074
  Daily rate                   5,070     5,095      5,305       5,974
    Noncellulosic staple       4,722     4,768      4,974       5,529
    Cellulosic staple            348       327        331         445
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Adjusted to calendar month.  2/ SA = seasonally adjusted.

FIBER EXPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           1999                  1998
                               --------------------------
Item                             Feb       Mar        Apr         Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Upland exports                 148       177        137         618       
  
     
    Total since August 1       2,968     3,145      3,282       5,208
  Sales for next season           50       181        109         229
    Total since August 1         247       428        537         846

  ELS exports                   33.7      44.6       32.1        51.4
    Total since August 1       139.5     184.1      216.2       372.8
  Sales for next season          3.4      21.3       22.3        15.7
    Total since August 1        29.0      50.3       72.6       109.9

Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Raw fiber exports             72.7      82.1       79.5        91.0
    Noncellulosic               70.0      78.7       77.2        88.0
    Cellulosic                   2.7       3.4        2.3         3.0
    Total since January 1      148.7     230.8      310.3     1,793.1

Wool and Mohair:                           1,000 pounds
  Raw wool exports, clean      124.3     145.7      496.7        23.1
   Total since January 1       133.4     279.1      775.8       682.8
  Wool top exports             356.7     386.6      792.9       836.7
    Total since January 1      757.7   1,144.3    1,937.2     2,519.8
  Mohair exports, clean        166.3     311.1      492.4       336.5
    Total since January 1      422.3     733.4    1,225.8       485.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------

FIBER PRICES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1999                  1998
                               ---------------------------     
Item                             Apr       May       Jun         Jun
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           Cents per pound
Domestic cotton prices:                    
  Adjusted World Price         43.97     45.39      43.38       55.43
  Jul'99 futures               60.11     58.38      60.46       75.03       
  Dec'99 futures               59.63     58.59      56.24       72.82  
  Upland spot 41-34            57.01     55.54      53.74       73.50 
  Pima spot 03-46              84.57     82.73      82.50      104.00
  Avg. price received by:  
  Upland producers             56.70     56.10      56.60       69.70     

  Mill delivered:
    Cotton
      Actual                   64.69     63.17      60.87       80.87
      Raw fiber equivalent     71.88     70.19      67.63       89.86
    Rayon staple
      Actual                  101.00    100.00     101.00      115.00
      Raw fiber equivalent    105.21    104.17     105.21      119.79
    Polyester staple
      Actual                   50.00     50.00      51.00       64.00
      Raw fiber equivalent     52.08     52.08      53.13       66.67

    Price ratios                               Percent
      Cotton/rayon              68.3      67.4       64.3        75.0
      Cotton/polyester         138.0     134.8      127.3       134.8

Northern Europe cotton quotes:            Cents per pound
  A Index                      57.86     59.85      58.68       68.06
  Memphis Territory               NQ        NQ         NQ       80.63
  California/Arizona           68.40     65.31      64.25          NQ
  B Index                         NQ        NQ         NQ          NQ
  Orleans/Texas                   NQ        NQ         NQ       75.44
                
Wool prices (clean):                      Dollars per pound
 U.S. 56's                      0.65      0.65       0.65        1.06       
  
     
  Australian 56's 1/            1.36      1.36       1.33        1.56
 U.S. 60's                      0.87      0.87       0.92        1.43
  Australian 60's 1/            1.44      1.43       1.38        1.64
 U.S. 64's                      1.10      1.17       1.22        1.70
  Australian 64's 1/            1.56      1.50       1.49        1.79
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
NQ = No quotes.
1/ In bond, Charleston, SC.

TEXTILE TRADE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         1999                   1998  
                              ----------------------------
Item                           Feb        Mar         Apr        Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Imports:                                   1,000 pounds 1/

  Yarn, thread, and fabric  210,837    246,340    229,100     242,676
    Cotton                   87,858    101,927     97,485     104,149   
    Linen                    22,587     27,186     19,677      27,112
    Wool                      3,404      4,303      3,853       4,520
    Silk                        656        752        734         870
    Manmade                  96,332    112,172    107,351     106,025

  Apparel                   591,226    552,573    530,524     488,201
    Cotton                  372,491    400,118    337,526     295,773      
    Linen                    16,260     14,830     12,038      11,359
    Wool                     12,691     12,926     12,404      13,988
    Silk                     13,400     12,527     10,337      10,143
    Manmade                 176,385    112,172    158,209     156,938

  House furnishings          54,455     59,740     57,604      49,983
    Cotton                   40,911     44,522     43,113      38,088
    Linen                       184        338        197         149
    Wool                         82         84        102         163
    Silk                         24         40        128          17
    Manmade                  13,254     14,792     14,064      11,566

  Floor covering             29,166     34,615     33,900      28,106
    Cotton                    4,528      4,964      5,335       4,195
    Linen                     3,832      5,202      4,752       3,456
    Wool                      7,074      9,285      8,667       9,247
    Silk                        385        775        432         585
    Manmade                  13,347     14,089     14,714      10,623

  Total imports 2/          892,425    972,025    858,369     816,409
    Cotton                  509,873    555,799    487,776     446,166
    Linen                    42,907     47,621     36,698      42,123
    Wool                     23,318     26,688     25,156      28,001
    Silk                     14,466     14,094     11,631      11,616
    Manmade                 301,861    327,822    297,108     288,503

Exports:                                  1,000 pounds 1/

  Yarn, thread, and fabric   164,714   192,556    188,123     171,030
    Cotton                    63,831    75,160     72,490      56,520
    Linen                      5,419     5,714      5,748       5,239
    Wool                       4,709     5,577      5,950       4,382
    Silk                       1,640     2,034      2,310       1,832
    Manmade                   89,115   104,071    101,625     103,057

  Apparel                    153,768   172,575    173,172     165,176
    Cotton                    93,470   105,259    108,985      99,296
    Linen                      1,658     1,770      2,069       1,703
    Wool                       6,823     7,450      6,418       8,632
    Silk                       3,873     4,102      3,647       3,707
    Manmade                   47,944    53,994     52,053      51,838

  House furnishings            6,264     6,972      5,607       6,025
    Cotton                     3,858     4,255      3,386       3,827
    Linen                        196       245        166         271
    Wool                          54        57         54          61
    Silk                         137       120        109         135
    Manmade                    2,019     2,295      1,892       1,731

  Floor covering              29,805    38,948     35,306      34,302
    Cotton                     2,410     3,02       2,733       3,100
    Linen                      1,584     1,819      1,608       1,635
    Wool                       2,849     3,657      3,262       3,071
    Silk                          91        93         84          84
    Manmade                   22,871    30,350     27,619      26,412

  Total exports 2/           354,826   411,427    402,462     376,919
    Cotton                   163,643   187,784    187,670     162,829
    Linen                      8,866     9,558      9,598       8,858
    Wool                      14,446    16,761     15,696      16,163
    Silk                       5,741     6,349      6,150       5,758
    Manmade                  162,130   190,974    183,347     183,312
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear.
 
U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           1999                 1998
                              -----------------------------
Item                            Feb        Mar        Apr        Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    1,000 pounds 1/

North America                213,528   254,320    216,967     178,993
  Canada                      18,828    22,133     21,313      16,828
  Costa Rica                   9,287     9,381      8,356       7,460
  Dominican Republic          20,380    25,964     21,648      18,644
  El Salvador                 15,193    18,452     17,838      13,107
  Guatemala                   10,695    11,394     10,014       7,654
  Haiti                        3,365     3,940      3,645       2,690
  Honduras                    30,744    38,759     27,449      21,402
  Jamaica                      4,360     5,170      3,561       6,660
  Mexico                      96,356   114,581    100,336      81,644
  Nicaragua                    3,701     4,038      3,259       2,489
                               
South America                  7,129     8,576      7,704       6,888
  Argentina                       28        25         16          21
  Brazil                       1,512     2,414      1,856       2,608
  Chile                            7        21         17          17
  Colombia                     2,873     3,009      2,643       2,037
  Peru                         2,147     2,654      2,660       1,730
  
Europe                        27,054    29,986     30,222      27,986
  Estonia                        446       483        627         987
  France                         685       728        535         620
  Germany                        700       834        799         894
  Italy                        3,302     3,466      2,919       3,018
  Portugal                     2,336     2,074      3,714       2,578
  Russia                         648       740        994       1,088
  Spain                          983     1,007      1,254       1,138
  Turkey                      13,483    15,684     14,438      13,014
  United Kingdom               1,005     1,244      1,091         930
  
Asia                         247,540   244,144    219,342     215,733
  Bahrain                      1,188     1,311        778         745
  Bangladesh                  17,102    15,158     13,768      12,790
  China                       32,477    31,704     28,329      29,230
  Hong Kong                   28,700    20,373     21,899      21,323
  India                       32,072    37,978     30,534      21,775
  Indonesia                   13,868    12,380     11,213      14,093
  Israel                       2,998     3,191      3,365       1,747
  Japan                        1,224     1,373      1,188       1,341
  Macao                        6,483     5,016      4,059       2,937
  Malaysia                     5,116     6,406      5,217       4,185
  Nepal                        2,178     2,653      1,863       1,593
  Oman                         1,789     2,079      1,569       1,336
  Pakistan                    31,208    31,648     32,059      34,323
  Philippines                 11,178    10,973      8,579       9,227
  Qatar                        1,765     1,226        964       1,369
  Singapore                    2,434     2,712      2,031       1,780
  South Korea                  8,575     8,930      8,542       7,976
  Sri Lanka                    9,144    10,006      7,941       7,311
  Taiwan                      12,141    10,896     10,467      10,398
  Thailand                    10,645    11,203     11,385      10,352
  U Arab Em                    2,552     2,840      2,496       2,786

Oceania                        1,593     2,003      1,377       1,952
  Australia                      794       939        674       1,187  
  Fiji                           584       768        532         523

Africa                        13,029    16,769     12,164      14,614
  Egypt                        6,660     7,963      4,864       8,221
  Lesotho                      1,288     1,859      1,462         728
  Mauritius                    1,647     2,298      1,766       1,756
  Morocco                        919     1,070      1,183       1,464
  South Africa                   529     1,305        991         737
  Tunisia                         82       153         41          74
World  2/                    509,873   555,799    487,776     446,166
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent.  2/ Totals may not add due to rounding.


U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         1999                   1998
                             -----------------------------
Country                         Feb        Mar        Apr        Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   1,000 pounds 1/
 
North America                144,006   165,363    167,401     135,953       
 
  Canada                      25,924    30,699     28,855      27,296
  Costa Rica                   6,286     6,370      6,565       6,638
  Dominican Republic          14,143    16,746     17,232      14,744
  El Salvador                  6,194     7,275      5,992       6,270
  Guatemala                    2,703     3,673      3,699       3,796
  Haiti                        1,576     1,891      2,353       1,253
  Honduras                    19,448    24,557     25,874      18,557
  Jamaica                      3,784     3,338      3,265       4,183
  Mexico                      62,414    69,015     71,929      50,801

South America                  2,963     3,814      3,731       2,591
  Argentina                      188       170        203         120
  Brazil                         379       210        263         579
  Chile                          321       655        572         473
  Colombia                       939     1,262      1,458       1,637
  Peru                            79       135         49          98
  Venezuela                      703     1,060        864       1,352

Europe                         7,997     8,281      7,508      11,901 
  Belgium                      2,513     2,145      2,152       2,675
  France                         315       311        426         675
  Germany                        727       797        645       1,479
  Ireland                         91        86        105       1,684
  Italy                          235       316        331         296
  Netherlands                    552       511        368         750
  United Kingdom               2,161     2,735      2,269       2,735

Asia                           7,052     8,783      7,797       8,636
  China                          230       342        251         141
  Hong Kong                      798     1,093      1,047       1,263
  Israel                         514       785        286         756
  Japan                        3,397     3,753      3,530       3,529
  Philippines                    241       568        345         368
  Saudi Arabia                   386       361        423         329
  Singapore                      185       298        321         314
  South Korea                    273       269        338         325
  Taiwan                         208       253        281         402
  U Arab Em                      193       236        242         281

Oceania                          680       751        691         935
  Australia                      476       486        563         770
  New Zealand                    105       145         31         120

Africa                           945       792        544         673
  Egypt                           18        22         22          12
  Ghana                            1        53         33          78
  Ivory Coast                     90        21         35          15
  Nigeria                        185       341        132         255
  South Africa                   286       106         99         112

World  2/                    163,643   187,784    187,670     162,829
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent.  2/ Totals may not add due to rounding.


ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COTTON ACREAGE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                           Projected    Projected
State/          Actual       March        June
Region           1998       1999 1/       1999 2/       1999/1998
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                          1,000 acres                    Percent

Upland:
  Alabama         495          550           570           115
  Florida          89          100            89           100
  Georgia       1,370        1,500         1,500           109
  N. Carolina     710          770           820           115
  S. Carolina     290          285           320           110
  Virginia         92           98            98           107
    Southeast   3,046        3,303         3,397           112

  Arkansas        920          960           940           102
  Louisiana       535          570           570           107
  Mississippi     950        1,100         1,200           126
  Missouri        370          370           450           122
  Tennessee       450          500           600           133
    Delta       3,225        3,500         3,760           117

  Kansas           17           29            29           171
  Oklahoma        160          225           225           141
  Texas         5,650        5,700         5,900           104
    Southwest   5,827        5,954         6,154           106

  Arizona         250          250           240            96
  California      650          570           620            95
  New Mexico       66           62            70           106
    West          966          882           930            96

Total Upland   13,064       13,639        14,241           109

Pima:
  Arizona          16           13            11            69
  California      200          250           260           130
  New Mexico        7            8             7           100
  Texas           105           34            40            38

Total Pima        328          305           318            97

Total All      13,393       13,944        14,559           109
-------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Planting intentions as indicated by reports from farmers.
2/ Total acres planted or intended to be planted.


END_OF_FILE