COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK                                        April 11, 1996
            Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic
Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. 
CWS-0396.  
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Smaller Acreage Projected in 1996
 
Farmers intend to plant 15.25 million acres of cotton in 1996 according to
USDA's Prospective Plantings report released March 29.  While strong price
competition from competing crops is resulting in a 10-percent decline in
prospective upland acreage, this season's high prices for extra-long staple
(ELS) cotton are boosting its indicated plantings by 23 percent.  Upland area
is expected to slip below 15 million acres in 1996, while ELS area is forecast
to climb to 265,000 acres, the second highest on record.
 
Upland acreage in the Southwest is expected to reach nearly 5.9 million acres,
down 14 percent from 1995.  Similarly, the Delta is projected to fall 11
percent to 4.4 million acres.  In the Southeast, indications place acreage
near 3.3 million acres, only 5 percent below 1995, and in the West, a
7-percent decline in upland area to 1.5 million acres is projected.
 
While upland area is projected down in each region, the relative share of the
total acreage remains similar to 1995.  The share in the Delta and West
regions remains unchanged, accounting for 29 and 10 percent, respectively.  In
contrast, the Southwest slipped to 39 percent of the U.S. upland total, with
the Southeast's share rising to about 22 percent.
 
Plantings Underway, Carryin To Remain Tight
 
As of April 7, 5 percent of the cotton crop had been planted, compared with 6
percent last year.  Only four States were reported as having cotton planted: 
Arizona, at 32 percent; California and Texas, each at 10 percent; and Alabama,
at 1 percent.  Compared with their 5-year averages, Arizona is above its
average, Texas and Alabama are near their averages, while California is
lagging.
 
Although the first official USDA cotton supply and demand projections for
1996/97 will not be released until May 10, the carryin stocks are estimated at
a relatively tight 2.9 million bales.  This projection is based on the latest
1995/96 supply and use estimates.  The 1995 U.S. cotton production estimate
was revised down slightly to reflect the latest Cotton Ginnings data.  USDA's
current production estimate is 17.92 million bales (17.56 million for upland
and 367,000 for ELS).  Final 1995 ginnings and production will also be
released next month.  In addition to the production adjustment, 1995/96
imports are now projected at 300,000 bales, the highest since 1945/46.  Total
U.S. cotton supplies are estimated at 20.9 million bales.  Meanwhile, total
U.S. cotton use is estimated at 18 million bales, leaving the ending
stocks-to-use ratio at only 16 percent.
 
Mill Demand Sluggish
 
Preliminary February cotton mill consumption, according to the latest U.S.
Commerce Department data, was slightly below the revised January data.  On a
seasonally adjusted daily rate basis, mill use in February averaged 38,400
bales per day, compared with 38,600 bales in January and 44,100 bales a year
earlier.  On a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis, February's mill
consumption was slightly below January's revised 10.1-million-bale rate.  In
addition, cotton's share of fiber use on the cotton system slipped to 77.7
percent, tying with last August for the lowest share of the season.
 
Cotton mill use during the first 7 months of 1995/96 totaled 6.0 million
bales, compared with 6.6 million last season.  Similarly, the SAAR has
averaged about 10.4 million bales through February.  Although mill use is
expected to improve during the next several months, the USDA estimate for the
season was lowered 100,000 bales to 10.4 million this month.
 
U.S. Export Forecast Raised, Foreign Production Cut
 
The forecast for U.S. exports in 1995/96 is raised this month by 200,000 bales
to 7.6 million.  There is little net change in the outlook for foreign imports
or exports, but China's import forecast is raised 200,000 bales, Mexico's is
raised 125,000 bales, and Taiwan's 75,000 bales.  Import forecasts are lower
for Russia (down 200,000 bales), Indonesia (100,000 bales), and Egypt (50,000
bales).  In general, the countries with higher import forecasts this month
favor U.S. cotton more than the countries whose import forecasts are down. 
This, combined with continued growth in U.S. export commitments and strong
export pace, suggests better prospects for U.S. cotton compared with a month
earlier.
 
The foreign production forecast for 1995/96 is lowered slightly this month,
down 180,000 bales to 70.9 million.  A 500,000-bale drop in Pakistan's crop
more than offsets a 200,000-bale increase for India.  For Pakistan, the
1994/95 crop is also lower--down 250,000 bales to 6.25 million.  The 1994/95
change and much of the 1995/96 change represents an adjusted USDA
interpretation of the impact of a tax Pakistan introduced on cotton last year. 
For much of the last year, USDA's estimates have in part been based on the
assumption that efforts to evade taxes drove a larger than normal share of the
cotton crop outside of normal marketing channels this year and last.  Based on
new information from USDA's attache in Pakistan, this assumption is dropped,
bringing the USDA estimate for Pakistan's recent production closer to the
arrivals figure reported by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners' Association.  A
slowdown in arrivals this year is also a factor in reducing the 1995/96
production estimate.
 
Foreign consumption for 1995/96 is virtually unchanged this month, at 75.4
million bales.  While recent data on Russian cloth production suggest a
200,000-bale decline in the 1995/96 consumption forecast, this is offset by a
more positive reassessment of consumption in Turkmenistan, Taiwan, and Iran.
 
Foreign exports for 1995/96 are also virtually unchanged this month at 20.9
million bales.  The forecast for China is reduced 200,000 bales due to a slow
export rate reported for the early season, and Australia's is reduced 100,000
bales in line with a report from ABARE.  Offsetting these changes are a
200,000-bale increase for Pakistan, and smaller increases for Mexico and Iran.
 
Finally, foreign ending stocks for 1995/96 are also little changed this month,
at 28.9 million bales.  A substantial downward revision for Pakistan is offset
by gains for China, India, and Turkmenistan.
 
Old Crop Prices Down, New Crop Up
 
The average price received by upland producers for the first half of March
declined to 75.1 cents per pound from the revised February price of 76.5
cents.  Last March, this price equaled 82.6 cents per pound.  The upland spot
price also slipped from a month earlier to 81.1 cents per pound, the lowest
since November 1994.  Meanwhile, the ELS spot price remains twice that of
upland cotton.  This price ratio encouraged the healthy rise seen in the
Prospective Plantings report for 1996 ELS acreage.
 
Mill-delivered upland prices also decreased slightly in March to about 89
cents per pound.  However, with no change in manmade fiber prices, cotton
prices remain marginally above those for polyester.  A year ago, cotton was
priced at $1.12 per pound, rayon at $1.09, and polyester at 86 cents.
 
On the other hand, new crop cotton prices have seen a steady rise over the
last several months.  In January, the December 1996 futures averaged 77.3
cents per pound.  By March, this futures contract price averaged nearly 80
cents per pound, and in early April, the December contract averaged above 80
cents.  Despite these relatively high cotton prices, competing crop prices are
also very strong for the 1996 season.
 
Textile Trade Rises in January
 
Preliminary textile trade data for January 1996 indicate an increase in both
textile imports and exports from December.  U.S. textile imports totaled 611
million (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds in January, up 25 percent from last
December but 7 percent below January 1995.  Total imports of each fiber type
increased from a month earlier.  In particular, cotton textile imports reached
323 million pounds during January 1996, 27 percent above December 1995 but
also below a year earlier; they were also up in each major end-use category. 
Manmade imports increased 30 million pounds, with the January gain largely
attributed to apparel products.
 
January textile exports reached nearly 242 million pounds, 3 percent above
December 1995 and 11 percent above a year earlier.  All fibers, except linen,
experienced gains.  By category, a large jump in apparel products more than
offset declines observed in the other three categories.  For cotton, textile
exports rose 8 percent during January 1996 to 105 million pounds; this is also
nearly 16 percent above a year earlier.  On the other hand, January manmade
fiber textile exports were virtually unchanged from a month earlier but 6
percent above January 1995.
 
Overall, the January textile trade deficit was 370 million pounds, with cotton
accounting for 59 percent (218 million) of the total.  The textile deficit
increased 113 million pounds from December 1995, but declined 68 million from
a year earlier.  Meanwhile, the monthly cotton textile deficit was the highest
in 3 months, however, it was 11 percent below January 1995.
 
Wool and Mohair Production Down in 1995
 
Shorn wool production in the United States totaled 63.3 million pounds in
1995, down 8 percent from 1994.  In addition, the number of sheep and lambs
shorn declined 9 percent to 8.1 million head.  However, the 1995 average price
paid for wool rose 26 cents to $1.04 per pound for a total value of $64.1
million, 22 percent above 1994.
 
Similarly, U.S. mohair production during 1995 was 12.1 million pounds, 4
percent below 1994.  The number of goats and kids clipped fell 8 percent from
a year earlier to 1.6 million head.  In contrast to wool, the 1995 average
price decreased 72 cents to $1.84 per pound for a total value of $22.2
million, 32 percent below 1994.
 
Special Notice:
 
With the recent passage of the 1996 farm legislation, existing legislation
which specified the release of monthly cotton crop reports at 3:00 p.m. EST
was repealed.  This action will allow all reports to be released
simultaneously before the commodity markets open.  Therefore, USDA cotton
supply and demand reports will be released at 8:30 a.m. EST beginning next
month.  The new release dates will be as follows:  May 10, June 12, July 12,
August 12, September 11, October 11, November 12, and December 12. 
Consequently, the originally scheduled release dates for the Cotton and Wool
Outlook will also be altered.  This report will be released one business day
after the dates listed above.
 
The 1995 Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook Yearbook (CWS-1995) is
available for purchase.  For information, call 1-800-999-6779.
 
The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0496) will be released on May 13.
 
For further information, contact Leslie Meyer at (202) 501-8528 (U.S. Cotton),
or Steve MacDonald at (202) 219-1179 (Foreign Cotton).
 
U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
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                                                   1995/96
                                         ----------------------------
Item                          1994/95     Feb        Mar          Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Upland:                                      Million acres
  Planted                      13.55     16.72      16.72       16.72
    Program                    11.62     11.02      11.02       11.02
  Harvested                    13.16     15.78      15.78       15.78
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           705       536        536         536
                                        Million 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks              3.30      2.59       2.59        2.59
  Production                   19.32     17.61      17.61       17.56
    Total supply 1/            22.65     20.29      20.39       20.44
  Mill use                     11.10     10.41      10.41       10.31
  Exports                       8.98      6.89       7.09        7.29
    Total use                  20.07     17.30      17.50       17.59
  Ending stocks                 2.59      2.98       2.88        2.87
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio           12.9      17.2       16.4        16.3
  
Extra-long staple:                           1,000 acres
  Planted                        169       215        215         215
    Program                       84        26         26          26
  Harvested                      166       211        211         211
                                             Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           974       821        821         821
                                         1,000 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks               227        59         59          59
  Production                     338       361        361         367
    Total supply 1/              567       430        430         436
  Mill use                       102        95         95          95
  Exports                        424       310        310         315
    Total use                    526       405        405         410
  Ending stocks                   59        25         25          26
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio           11.2       6.2        6.2         6.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates.  1/ Includes imports.
 
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
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                                                   1995/96
                                        ------------------------------
Item                          1994/95     Feb        Mar          Apr
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Supply:                                 Million 480-lb. bales
Beginning stocks
  World                        26.31     28.92      28.75       28.87
  Foreign                      22.78     26.27      26.10       26.22
Production
  World                        85.67     88.63      89.05       88.83
  Foreign                      66.01     70.65      71.08       70.90
Imports
  World                        30.53     28.12      28.37       28.57
  Foreign                      30.51     28.02      28.17       28.27
Use:
Mill use
  World                        84.84     85.71      85.91       85.78
  Foreign                      73.65     75.21      75.41       75.38
Exports
  World                        28.60     27.93      28.27       28.51
  Foreign                      19.20     20.73      20.87       20.91
Ending stocks
  World                        28.87     31.77      31.73       31.79
  Foreign                      26.22     28.77      28.83       28.89
 
Stocks-to-use ratio                            Percent
  World                         34.0      37.1       36.9        37.1
  Foreign                       35.6      38.3       38.2        38.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates.
 
FIBER SUPPLY
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                                1995            1996             1995
                                         ----------------
Item                             Dec       Jan        Feb         Feb
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Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Ginnings                     2,916       411         44         121
Imports since August 1           2.2       5.2         NA         9.1
  Stocks, beginning           11,803    12,821     11,089      13,250
    At mills                     543       569        638         663
    Public storage             9,415    10,074      8,597      10,508
    CCC stocks                 1,499     2,054      2,142       3,111
 
Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Production                   787.5     799.3      767.3       813.0
    Noncellulosic              741.1     761.4      730.1       772.6
    Cellulosic                  46.4      37.9       37.2        40.4
    Total since January 1    9,948.3     799.3    1,566.6     1,577.7
 
                                      1995           1996        1995
                                 --------------
                                 Nov       Dec        Jan         Jan
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Million pounds
  Raw fiber imports             94.1      82.2         NA        91.8
    Noncellulosic               85.5      77.3         NA        85.4
    Cellulosic                   8.6       4.9         NA         6.4
    Total since January 1    1,011.3   1,093.5         NA        84.9
 
Wool and Mohair:                            1,000 pounds
  Raw wool imports, clean      7,656     4,084      9,624      10,441
    48's-and-finer             5,172     2,536      7,248       8,903
    Not-finer-than-46's        2,484     1,548      2,376       1,538
    Total since January 1     84,736    88,820      9,624      10,441
 
  Wool top imports               177       298        629         360
    Total since January 1      4,232     4,530        629         360
  Mohair imports, clean           19         0          2           4
    Total since January 1        143       143          2           4
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available.
 
COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION
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                                1995            1996             1995
                                          ---------------
Item                             Dec       Jan        Feb         Feb
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
All consumed by mills 1/         669       884        840         912
  Total since August 1 1/      4,324     5,208      6,048       6,613
  SA annual rate 2/           10,334    10,105     10,074      11,517
  SA daily rate 2/              39.4      38.6       38.4        44.1
  Daily rate                    31.8      38.4       40.0        45.6
 
Upland consumed by mills 1/      662       873        830         902
  Total since August 1 1/      4,282     5,155      5,985       6,559
  SA annual rate 2/           10,250     9,984      9,949      11,393
  SA daily rate 2/              39.1      38.1       38.0        43.7
  Daily rate                    31.5      38.0       39.5        45.1
 
Spindles in place              6,627     6,520      6,493       7,274
  Active spindles              6,079     6,054      6,003       6,850
    100 percent cotton         2,745     2,768      2,728       2,972
    100 percent manmade        1,019     1,008      1,003       1,118
    Blends                     2,315     2,278      2,272       2,760
                                             Percent
Cotton's share of fibers        78.3      78.4       77.7        76.9
 
Manmade:                                    1,000 pounds
Total consumed by mills 1/    88,801   116,727    115,486     131,299
  Total since August 1 1/    578,284   695,012    810,498     939,637
  Daily rate                   4,229     5,075      5,499       6,565
    Noncellulosic staple       3,555     4,369      4,653       5,690
    Cellulosic staple            674       706        846         875
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Adjusted to calendar month.  2/ SA = seasonally adjusted.
 
FIBER EXPORTS
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                                      1995           1996        1995
                                 -------------
Item                             Nov       Dec        Jan         Jan
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Upland exports                 719     1,198      1,204       1,068
    Total since August 1       1,684     2,881      4,085       4,006
  Sales for next season           -9       119         87           8
    Total since August 1          47       166        253       2,695
 
  ELS exports                   14.1      32.0       58.6        47.0
    Total since August 1        61.8      93.9      152.4       122.4
  Sales for next season         13.4      32.2       17.4        20.1
    Total since August 1        45.8      78.0       95.6        34.1
 
Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Raw fiber exports             87.5      86.1         NA        79.9
    Noncellulosic               80.7      79.4         NA        74.2
    Cellulosic                   6.8       6.7         NA         5.7
    Total since January 1      961.9   1,048.0         NA        89.2
 
Wool and Mohair:                           1,000 pounds
  Raw wool exports, clean      434.7     113.2      336.5       190.8
   Total since January 1     5,928.5   6,041.7      336.5       190.8
  Wool top exports           1,148.2     940.0      822.2       636.5
    Total since January 1   12,902.1  13,842.1      822.2       636.5
 
  Mohair exports, clean        367.8     687.2    1,236.8       874.1
    Total since January 1    4,166.4   4,853.6    1,236.8       874.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
FIBER PRICES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1996                   1995
                              -----------------------------
Item                             Jan       Feb        Mar         Mar
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Domestic cotton prices:                    Cents per pound
  Adjusted World Price         70.99     70.42      68.26       95.83
  May'96 futures               83.71     85.12      83.92       78.91
  Dec'96 futures               77.30     78.58      79.88          NA
  Upland spot 41-34            81.81     81.56      81.13      104.20
  Pima spot 03-46             167.61    162.63     162.11      115.02
  Avg. price received by:
    Upland producers           76.80     76.50      75.10       82.60
 
  Mill delivered:
    Cotton
      Actual                   88.86     89.76      88.79      111.91
      Raw fiber equivalent     98.73     99.73      98.66      124.34
    Rayon staple
      Actual                  125.00    125.00     125.00      109.00
      Raw fiber equivalent    130.21    130.21     130.21      113.54
    Polyester staple
      Actual                   88.00     88.00      88.00       86.00
      Raw fiber equivalent     91.67     91.67      91.67       89.58
 
    Price ratios                               Percent
      Cotton/rayon              75.8      76.6       75.8       109.5
      Cotton/polyester         107.7     108.8      107.6       138.8
 
Northern Europe cotton quotes:            Cents per pound
  A Index                      86.04     84.99      83.18      110.63
  Memphis Territory            94.13     94.70      94.13      116.65
  California/Arizona          100.56    100.20      98.31      121.30
  B Index                      81.03     78.98      77.76      108.67
  Orleans/Texas                89.38     90.40      89.88      113.30
 
Wool prices (clean):                      Dollars per pound
 U.S. 56's                      1.35      1.35       1.35        1.63
  Australian 56's 1/            1.91      1.92       1.90        2.62
 U.S. 60's                      1.55      1.56       1.57        1.99
  Australian 60's 1/            2.08      2.05       2.03        2.70
 U.S. 64's                      1.88      1.92       1.97        2.65
  Australian 64's 1/            2.40      2.37       2.38        3.02
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available.
1/ In bond, Charleston, SC.
 
TEXTILE TRADE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     1995           1996         1995
                             -----------------
Item                            Nov       Dec        Jan          Jan
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Imports:                                   1,000 pounds 1/
 
  Yarn, thread, and fabric   158,583   145,724    165,841     207,274
    Cotton                    58,169    58,969     65,330      83,322
    Linen                     29,123    26,438     35,821      49,785
    Wool                       2,765     2,465      3,002       3,768
    Silk                         649       542        708         698
    Manmade                   67,877    57,311     60,980      69,700
 
  Apparel                    364,303   296,216    389,768     389,977
    Cotton                   211,833   172,364    226,847     219,992
    Linen                     11,266     7,780     12,753      15,729
    Wool                      13,821     8,636     11,170      11,028
    Silk                       8,863     8,018     12,506      14,211
    Manmade                  118,518    99,418    126,492     129,017
 
  House furnishings           28,701    23,938     31,545      31,796
    Cotton                    19,914    16,434     22,892      24,130
    Linen                        193       167        154         195
    Wool                          84       122        127         127
    Silk                          15        34         10           6
    Manmade                    8,494     7,181      8,362       7,338
 
  Floor covering              19,357    18,305     16,729      19,593
    Cotton                     3,583     3,709      4,177       3,791
    Linen                      2,884     2,281      2,746       2,866
    Wool                       4,394     4,785      4,432       5,733
    Silk                         327       570        479         367
    Manmade                    8,170     6,959      4,896       6,835
 
  Total imports 2/           576,110   489,739    611,224     655,998
    Cotton                   295,738   254,050    323,250     334,758
    Linen                     43,496    36,688     51,509      69,037
    Wool                      21,177    16,084     18,790      20,798
    Silk                       9,855     9,165     13,704      15,285
    Manmade                  205,844   173,752    203,972     216,119
 
Exports:                                  1,000 pounds 1/
 
  Yarn, thread, and fabric   121,299   106,926    105,961     112,118
    Cotton                    42,501    35,297     38,190      37,305
    Linen                      2,775     2,935      2,734       2,673
    Wool                       3,007     3,231      2,572       3,332
    Silk                       1,287     1,145      1,296         887
    Manmade                   71,730    64,318     61,170      67,921
 
  Apparel                    106,302    73,141    105,420      75,380
    Cotton                    62,846    55,063     61,697      47,827
    Linen                      2,056     2,010      1,813       2,087
    Wool                       4,354     4,062      4,801       2,554
    Silk                       1,735     1,505      1,769       1,225
    Manmade                   35,312    30,502     35,340      21,688
 
  House furnishings            6,873     5,767      4,781       4,096
    Cotton                     3,933     3,339      2,838       2,498
    Linen                        258       289        174         163
    Wool                         101       121         65          40
    Silk                         114       125        111          73
    Manmade                    2,466     1,894      1,592       1,322
 
  Floor covering              27,764    27,197     25,181      26,558
    Cotton                     2,943     3,102      2,250       3,166
    Linen                      1,169     1,103      1,053       1,240
    Wool                       1,396     1,313      1,340       1,322
    Silk 3/                      ---       ---        ---         ---
    Manmade                   22,257    21,679     20,538      20,830
 
  Total exports 2/           262,557   233,458    241,613     218,453
    Cotton                   112,255    96,851    105,019      90,827
    Linen                      6,264     6,347      5,782       6,171
    Wool                       8,875     8,742      8,796       7,259
    Silk                       3,135     2,775      3,176       2,184
    Manmade                  132,027   118,743    118,841     112,011
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent.  1996 data are subject to revision.
2/ Includes headgear.  3/ Absence of trade.
 
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COTTON ACREAGE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
State/          Actual       Actual      Projected
Region           1994         1995          1996 1/     1996/1995
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                          1,000 acres                    Percent
 
Upland:
  Alabama         463          590           580             98
  Florida          69          110           120            109
  Georgia         885        1,500         1,380             92
  N. Carolina     486          810           780             96
  S. Carolina     225          345           310             90
  Virginia         42          107           115            107
    Southeast   2,170        3,462         3,285             95
 
  Arkansas        980        1,170         1,100             94
  Louisiana       900        1,085           970             89
  Mississippi   1,280        1,460         1,200             82
  Missouri        352          461           460            100
  Tennessee       590          700           630             90
    Delta       4,102        4,876         4,360             89
 
  Kansas            1            4             2             39
  Oklahoma        360          380           350             92
  Texas         5,450        6,400         5,500             86
    Southwest   5,811        6,784         5,852             86
 
  Arizona         313          365           325             89
  California    1,100        1,170         1,100             94
  New Mexico       55           61            60             98
    West        1,468        1,596         1,485             93
 
Total Upland   13,552       16,718        14,982             90
 
Pima:
  Arizona          48           49            40             82
  California       81          115           165            143
  New Mexico       11           15            18            120
  Texas            29           36            42            117
 
Total Pima        169          215           265            123
 
Total All      13,720       16,932        15,247             90
-------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Planting intentions as indicated by reports from farmers.
 
                              End end end