HDR1012000110010212970830CROP PRODUCTION                                        
HDR2012000110010212970830HIGHLIGHTS & SUMMARY                                   
Crop                                                                            
Production                                                                      
National                                                                        
Agricultural                                                                    
Statistics                                                                      
Service                                                                         
                                                                                
USDA                                                                            
Washington, D.C.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Released February 12, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service     
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For     
information on "Crop Production" call at (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. 
to 4:00 p.m. ET.  For assistance with general agricultural statistics,          
information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural      
Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.  The        
"Crop Production" U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000,         
Report 1150. See page 14.  Index and report features are located at the end of  
this report.  Forecasts refer to February 1, 1997.                              
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                  Record Large Orange Production                                
                                                                                
All oranges production for the 1996-97 season is forecast at a record large     
12.5 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast in January but up       
6 percent from a year ago.  This forecast reflects the effects of the freezing  
temperatures in Florida on January 19, 1997, and in Texas on January 14, 1997.  
This year's crop is 5 percent larger than the previous record of 11.8 million   
tons set in the 1979-80 season.  Florida's production amounts to 220 million    
boxes (9.90 million tons), unchanged from January but 8 percent above last      
season.  Florida's Valencia crop forecast was reduced to 87.0 million boxes     
(3.92 million tons), 3 percent below last month's forecast but 6 percent above  
last season's crop.  Early and mid-season varieties are expected to produce     
133 million boxes (5.99 million tons), 2 percent above last month and 10 percent
above last year.                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1996-97 season is 
forecast at 1.54 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from 1.53 gallons per 
box in January.  The forecast projects the final yield as reported by the       
Florida Citrus Processors Association.  The final 1995-96 yield for all fruit   
used in FCOJ was 1.52 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.  The projected      
average yield for 1996-97 early and midseason varieties is 1.50 gallons per box,
up from last month's forecast of 1.48 gallons per box and from last season's    
final of 1.45.  Valencia yield is projected at 1.60 gallons per box, down from  
1.62 last month and 1.67 last season.                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Cr Pr 2-2 (2-97)                                                                
             Crop Summary: Production, United States,                           
                  1995-96 and Forecasted 1996-97                                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
                         :                Utilized Production                   
                         :----------------------------------------------------  
          Crop           :                :       Jan 1,     :     Feb 1,       
                         :                :        1997      :      1997        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
      Crop Year 1/       :    1995-96            1996-97          1996-97       
                         :                                                      
                         :                     1,000 Tons                       
Citrus Fruits            :                                                      
  Oranges                :      11,723            12,452            12,452      
  Grapefruit             :       2,718             3,064             3,064      
  Lemons 2/              :         992               988               988      
  Tangerines             :         348               414               424      
  Temples (FL)           :          97               113               113      
  Tangelos (FL)          :         110               171               180      
  K-Early Citrus (FL)    :           7                 7                 7      
                         :                                                      
                         :                    Metric Tons                       
                         :                                                      
  Oranges                :  10,634,930        11,296,260        11,296,260      
  Grapefruit             :   2,465,730         2,779,610         2,779,610      
  Lemons 2/              :     899,930           896,300           896,300      
  Tangerines             :     315,700           375,570           384,650      
  Temples (FL)           :      88,000           102,510           102,510      
  Tangelos (FL)          :      99,790           155,130           163,290      
  K-Early Citrus (FL)    :       6,350             6,350             6,350      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
1/ Crop year begins with the bloom of the first year and ends with the          
   completion of harvest the following year.                                    
2/ Februrary 1 forecast carried forward from January 1.                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
This report was approved on February 12, 1997, by the Acting Secretary of       
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural     
Statistics Board.                                                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
          Acting Secretary of               Agricultural Statistics Board       
              Agriculture                            Chairperson                
            Michael V. Dunn                          Rich Allen                 
                                                                                
     Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,                   
               1995 and Forecasted February 1, 1996                             
                         (Domestic Units)                                       
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
                         :       Area Planted       :     Area Harvested        
          Crop           :----------------------------------------------------  
                         :     1995    :    1996    :    1995    :    1996      
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
                         :                     1,000 Acres                      
                         :                                                      
                         :                                                      
Sugarcane for            :                                                      
 Sugar and Seed          :                               932.3        887.5     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Crop Summary:  Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1995-96            
                         (Domestic Units)                                       
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
                         :     Yield per Acre    :        Production            
      Crop and Unit      :---------------------------------------------------   
                         :    1995   :   1996    :    1995    :     1996        
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
                         :   ----- Tons -------       ----- 1,000 Tons -----    
                         :                                                      
Sugarcane for            :                                                      
 Sugar and Seed          :    33.0       32.9         30,796         29,224     
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
     Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,                   
               1995 and Forecasted February 1, 1996                             
                          (Metric Units)                                        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
                         :       Area Planted     :     Area Harvested          
         Crop            :----------------------------------------------------  
                         :     1995    :     1996    :     1995    :    1996    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
                         :                        Hectares                      
                         :                                                      
                         :                                                      
Sugarcane for            :                                                      
 Sugar and Seed          :                             377,290      359,160     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
Crop Summary:  Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1995-96         
                          (Metric Units)                                        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
                         :  Yield per Hectare  :          Production            
          Crop           :----------------------------------------------------  
                         :   1995  :   1996    :    1995      :    1996         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
                         :                   Metric Tons                        
                         :                                                      
Sugarcane for            :                                                      
 Sugar and Seed          :   74.05     73.82       27,937,660     26,511,570    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
HDR2012000110010212970830STATE TABLES                                           
           Sugarcane:  Area Harvested, Yield, and Production                    
               by Use, State, and United States, 1995-96                        
----------------------------------------------------------------------          
    Use   :  Area Harvested   :     Yield 1/      :   Production 1/             
    and   :-----------------------------------------------------------          
   State  :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996   :  1995   :  1996             
----------------------------------------------------------------------          
          :    1,000 Acres       ---- Tons ----     -- 1,000 Tons --            
          :                                                                     
For Sugar :                                                                     
  FL      :  417.0     420.0     34.6      34.0     14,445    14,280            
  HI 2/   :   48.5      40.0     81.5      81.9      3,953     3,276            
  LA 2/   :  368.0     335.0     25.6      27.0      9,421     9,045            
  TX 2/   :   41.2      34.2     32.4      26.6      1,336       910            
          :                                                                     
  US      :  874.7     829.2     33.3      33.2     29,155    27,511            
          :                                                                     
For Seed  :                                                                     
  FL      :   20.0      20.0     33.9      34.0        677       680            
  HI 2/   :    4.5       3.0     26.0      26.0        117        78            
  LA 2/   :   32.0      35.0     25.6      27.0        819       945            
  TX 2/   :    1.1        .3     25.5      32.0         28        10            
          :                                                                     
  US      :   57.6      58.3     28.5      29.4      1,641     1,713            
          :                                                                     
For Sugar :                                                                     
 and Seed :                                                                     
  FL      :  437.0     440.0     34.6      34.0     15,122    14,960            
  HI 2/   :   53.0      43.0     76.8      78.0      4,070     3,354            
  LA 2/   :  400.0     370.0     25.6      27.0     10,240     9,990            
  TX 2/   :   42.3      34.5     32.2      26.7      1,364       920            
          :                                                                     
  US      :  932.3     887.5     33.0      32.9     30,796    29,224            
----------------------------------------------------------------------          
1/  Net tons.                                                                   
2/  Current estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.                    
     Citrus Fruits:  Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,     
                   1995-96 and Forecasted February 1, 1997 1/                   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :     Utilized Production     :     Utilized Production     
                    :            Boxes            :       Ton Equivalent        
   Crop and State   :-----------------------------------------------------------
                    : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ -----   ------- 1,000 Tons -------  
Oranges             :                                                           
  Early Mid &       :                                                           
   Navel 3/         :                                                           
    AZ 4/           :     400       700       550       15        27        21  
    CA 4/           :  35,000    38,000    39,000    1,313     1,426     1,463  
    FL              : 119,700   121,200   133,000    5,387     5,454     5,985  
    TX              :     950       830     1,300       40        35        55  
    US              : 156,050   160,730   173,850    6,755     6,942     7,524  
  Valencia          :                                                           
    AZ 4/           :     650       950       850       24        36        32  
    CA 4/           :  21,000    28,000    26,000      788     1,051       975  
    FL              :  85,800    82,000    87,000    3,861     3,690     3,915  
    TX              :     105       110       150        4         4         6  
    US              : 107,555   111,060   114,000    4,677     4,781     4,928  
  All               :                                                           
    AZ 4/           :   1,050     1,650     1,400       39        63        53  
    CA 4/           :  56,000    66,000    65,000    2,101     2,477     2,438  
    FL              : 205,500   203,200   220,000    9,248     9,144     9,900  
    TX              :   1,055       940     1,450       44        39        61  
    US              : 263,605   271,790   287,850   11,432    11,723    12,452  
Temples             :                                                           
  FL                :   2,550     2,150     2,500      114        97       113  
Grapefruit          :                                                           
  White Seedless    :                                                           
    FL              :  25,700    23,200    26,500    1,092       986     1,126  
  Colored Seedless  :                                                           
    FL              :  28,700    28,100    31,500    1,220     1,194     1,339  
  Other             :                                                           
    FL              :   1,300     1,050     1,000       55        45        43  
  All               :                                                           
    AZ 4/           :   1,400     1,200     1,000       47        40        34  
    CA 4/ 5/        :                                                           
      Desert        :   3,300                          111                      
      Other Areas   :   6,000                          201                      
      Total         :   9,300     8,100     9,000      312       271       302  
    FL              :  55,700    52,350    59,000    2,367     2,225     2,508  
    TX              :   4,650     4,550     5,500      186       182       220  
    US              :  71,050    66,200    74,500    2,912     2,718     3,064  
Tangerines          :                                                           
  AZ 4/             :     650     1,000       750       25        38        28  
  CA 4/             :   2,500     2,600     2,700       94        97       101  
  FL                :   3,550     4,500     6,200      168       213       295  
  US                :   6,700     8,100     9,650      287       348       424  
Lemons 4/           :                                                           
  AZ                :   3,600     5,100     4,000      137       194       152  
  CA                :  20,000    21,000    22,000      760       798       836  
  US                :  23,600    26,100    26,000      897       992       988  
Tangelos            :                                                           
  FL                :   3,150     2,450     4,000      142       110       180  
K-Early Citrus      :                                                           
  FL                :     120       160       150        5         7         7  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Citrus Fruit Footnotes                             
                                                                                
1/  The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with   
    year harvest is completed.                                                  
                                                                                
2/  Net lbs. per box:  oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ  & CA-67,
    FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76, tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90;             
    tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95.                                               
                                                                                
3/  Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA.  Early and mid-season       
    varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.     
                                                                                
4/  Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.           
                                                                                
5/  California Desert and Other Areas Grapefruit forecasts combined to All      
    Grapefruit beginning in 1995-96.                                            
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
          Papayas:  Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1996-97        
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
           :                   Area                 :     Fresh Production      
           :------------------------------------------------------------------  
   Month   :    Total in Crop    :     Harvested    :            :              
           :----------------------------------------:    1996    :    1997      
           :   1996   :   1997   :   1996  :  1997  :            :              
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
           :   --------------- Acres --------------      -- 1,000 Pounds --     
           :                                                                    
 Dec       :   3,455                 1,475               3,040                  
 Jan       :   3,765      3,435      2,365    1,495      3,575        3,280     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
                                                                                
          California Nut Crops:  Bearing Acreage, Yield, Production,            
               Price, and Value by Crop, 1994-95 and Revised 1996               
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :        Bearing Acreage         :       Yield per Acre 1/        
     Crop     :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :   1994   :   1995   :   1996   :   1994   :   1995   :   1996   
              :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              : ----------- Acres -----------     -- Tons (In-Shell Basis) --   
              :                                                                 
Walnuts       :                                                                 
 (English)    : 171,000    169,000    169,000      1.36       1.38       1.23   
              :                                                                 
              :                                                                 
              :                                      Pounds (Shelled Basis)     
              :                                                                 
Almonds       : 409,000    400,000    410,000     1,800        925      1,270   
              :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :           Production           :         Price per Unit         
              :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :   1994   :   1995   :   1996   :   1994   :   1995   :   1996   
              :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              : --- Tons (In-Shell Basis) ---     ----- Dollars per Ton -----   
              :                                                                 
Walnuts       :                                                                 
 (English) 2/ : 232,000    234,000    208,000     1,030      1,400              
              :                                                                 
              :  1,000 Pounds (Shelled Basis)      ---- Dollars per Pound ---   
              :                                                                 
Almonds 3/    : 735,000    370,000    520,000      1.34       2.48       2.10   
              :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :                  Value of Utilized Production                   
              :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :        1994         :        1995         :        1996         
              :-----------------------------------------------------------------
              :                          1,000 Dollars                          
              :                                                                 
Walnuts       :                                                                 
 (English) 2/ :       238,960               327,600                             
              :                                                                 
              :                                                                 
Almonds 3/    :       965,202               880,896              1,048,320      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Yield based on utilized production.                                         
2/  Price and value estimates for 1996 will be published on July 3, 1997.       
3/  Price and value estimates are based on the edible portion of the crop only. 
    Included in production are inedible quantities of no value as follows:      
    1994 - 14.7 million pounds, 1995 - 14.8 million pounds, 1996 - 20.8 million 
    pounds.                                                                     
HDR2012000110010212970830NARRATIVE                                              
January Weather Summary:  Frigid weather, often accompanied by light snow and   
                          blowing snow, capped one of the coldest, snowiest     
November-January periods on record across the northern Plains and western Great 
Lakes States.  Monthly temperatures averaged up to 7 degrees F below normal on  
the northern Plains.  Cold air overspread the Nation at mid-month, culminating  
in a brief but damaging freeze on January 19 across Peninsular Florida.  Despite
the brief chill, monthly temperature departures ranged from +1 to +4 degrees F  
across much of the Southeast.  Mild weather also prevailed in the West, where   
temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees F above normal.                      
                                                                                
Northern and central California's flood, already underway when 1997 began,      
intensified during the first few days of the year, as nearly unprecedented      
rainfall rates were accompanied by significant snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada    
foothills.  Another pair of storms struck the flood-affected region after mid-  
month, dumping a month's worth of precipitation in a week and slowing flood-    
recovery efforts.  Above-normal snowfall continued to plague the North Central  
States, where spring flooding will be a threat if the above-normal snowpack     
melts rapidly and is accompanied by heavy precipitation.  In contrast, little   
precipitation fell on the central and southern Plains for the second consecutive
month.                                                                          
                                                                                
During November 1996 - January 1997, temperatures averaged 8.8 degrees F in     
Aberdeen, SD and 8.2 degrees F in Glasgow, MT.  Both values were the lowest on  
record, eclipsing standards set in 1911-12 and 1977-78, respectively.  Glasgow's
season-to-date snowfall (43.3 inches) was also a record, smashing the record set
in 1970-71.  Although Aberdeen's season-to-date snowfall (60.2 inches) was only 
second on record, their snow depth reached an all-time record 30 inches on      
January 10-14 and 16-18.  In North Dakota, snowfall topped 20 inches for the    
third consecutive month in Fargo (28.6 inches), boosting their seasonal total to
75.4 inches (188 percent of their annual normal).  Only the first few and last  
few days of January offered a respite to the North Central States.  On January  
2, a maximum of 40 degrees F in Grand Forks, ND was their first above-freezing  
reading since November 8.  And on January 31, the mercury hit 40 degrees F in   
Minneapolis, MN for the first time since November 17.                           
                                                                                
Lake-effect snow squalls were prevalent during the month.  In Michigan, January-
record totals were observed in many locations, including Grand Rapids           
(45.5 inches), Alpena (55.8 inches), Marquette (91.7 inches), and Ironwood      
(100.7 inches).  In addition, monthly precipitation reached January-record      
levels in Alpena (4.12 inches) and Marquette (6.61 inches).  Snow also fell     
heavily at times in the Midwest.  In Illinois, Springfield's 19.3-inch total was
their third-greatest January amount on record.  Farther east, a record-setting  
lake-effect snow storm dumped 91 inches on Montague, NY, 77 inches of which fell
in 24 hours on January 11-12.  But in contrast to a year ago, when the Blizzard 
of '96 struck the East, monthly snowfall totaled only 1.7 inches in             
Philadelphia, PA and 2.2 inches in Huntington, WV.                              
                                                                                
In Dade County, FL, lows on January 19 dipped to 31 degrees F in Homestead and  
32 degrees F in Perrine.  Near Ft. Myers, temperatures remained below freezing  
for up to 9 hours and at or below 28 degrees F for up to 4 hours.  Temperatures 
across central Florida fell to 25 degrees F in Plant City and 26 degrees F in   
Orlando.  Heavy rain preceded the cold weather across southern Florida on       
January 13-14, including a 24-hour, January-record total (5.82 inches) in       
Ft. Lauderdale.  Farther west, poorly insulated winter wheat on the central     
Plains was sporadically exposed to sub-zero temperatures.  Some of the lowest   
readings occurred on January 13 and 28, especially across northern Kansas and   
southern Nebraska.  In addition, monthly precipitation totaled only a trace in  
locations such as North Platte, NE and Concordia, KS.  More substantial         
precipitation fell across northern Texas however, including 10.8 inches of snow 
in Amarillo and 4.5 inches in Lubbock.  In Amarillo, more precipitation fell    
during the first 13 days of January (0.57 inches) than during January 1 - May   
22, 1996.                                                                       
Heavy precipitation ended across northern and central California on January 3   
after a nearly continual 2-week storm chain.  The region was especially battered
between December 26 and January 3, when totals in the Sierra Nevada foothills   
topped 40 inches at a few locations.  In the Feather River basin, 72-hour totals
reached 27.56 inches at Bucks Lake.  Despite the low-elevation rainfall and     
runoff, snow-water equivalent continued to mount in the Sierra Nevada,          
increasing from an average of 18 inches (140 percent of normal for the date) on 
January 6 to 29 inches (about 160 percent of normal) by month's end.  The       
increase was largely due to a pair of strong storms that struck between January 
20-27 and delivered a typical month's worth or more of precipitation.  By the   
end of January, the holdings of California's 155 primary reservoirs had         
increased 12 percent from a year ago, standing at 136 percent of normal and     
83 percent of capacity.                                                         
                                                                                
Lake Tahoe posted a record "gates-closed" rise (actual rise plus dam release)   
for 1- and 2-month periods.  Tahoe's gates-closed rise was 2.15 feet in January 
and 3.52 feet in December-January, eclipsing records set in December 1964 and   
November-December 1950, respectively.  When Tahoe's elevation peaked at         
6,229.39 feet above sea level on January 5, it represented the lake's highest   
crest since July 17, 1917.  Interestingly, Tahoe's record-low level was set less
than 5 years ago, on November 30, 1992.  Widespread flooding occurred on both   
sides of the Sierra Nevada crest.  On the east slopes, the Walker and Truckee   
River systems were among those scoured by floodwaters.  In California's Central 
Valley, Modesto and Olivehurst were among the hardest-hit areas.  Numerous levee
failures caused widespread damage in several basins, especially along the       
Cosumnes, Mokelumne, Tuolumne, and Feather Rivers.  Unprecedented flooding      
occurred at several gauging sites, including the Tuolumne River at Modesto,     
where the peak flow topped 70,000 cubic feet per second on January 4, eclipsing 
the record of 57,000 set on December 9, 1950.                                   
                                                                                
Temperatures averaged up to 5 degrees F below normal in interior Alaska and near
normal across the south.  In Fairbanks, the lowest temperature of the season-to-
date (-51 degrees F) occurred on January 7, a few days before the bitterly cold 
airmass reached the Lower 48.  Precipitation was below normal except at a few   
western and southern locations.  In Hawaii, wet weather affected the western    
islands, while warmth prevailed farther to the east.  Honolulu's monthly        
rainfall of 6.92 inches was 195 percent of normal.  On January 27, Hilo notched 
a January-record high of 92 degrees F.                                          
                                                                                
                                                                                
General Crop Comments:  January weather conditions were varied and often harsh  
                        across much of the country.  Heavy rains and melting    
snow caused flooding in central and northern California.  Bitterly cold weather 
and blowing snow gripped much of the northern half of the country, stressing    
livestock and pressuring feed supplies.  The winter wheat crop in the central   
Plains remained generally free of weather damage.  However, this was the second 
straight month that an area from Texas to Nebraska was without significant      
precipitation.  A cold front pushed through Florida on January 19, dropping     
temperatures below freezing and into the teens in some areas.  Some citrus and  
vegetable damage was reported, especially to vegetables in southern Florida.    
                                                                                
In central and northern California, the new year began with a powerful storm    
slamming waves of warm rain through the valley and well into the higher         
elevations of the Sierra Nevada.  Resulting snowmelt supplemented the storm     
run-off; floodwaters broke many levees and covered farmlands.  For most of the  
month, rain and wet soils halted field activities.  Crops in well-drained fields
were in good condition, but others were showing heavy water damage.  Some fields
were a total loss and will need to be replanted.  Significant damage to the farm
infrastructure, including buildings, equipment, land, irrigation systems, and   
private levees, was reported.                                                   
During the month, much of the northern third of the country, especially an area 
around the Dakotas, endured extremely harsh winter conditions.  Bitterly cold   
weather, high winds, and blowing snow placed livestock under extreme stress.    
Supplemental feeding was required, pressuring already short feed supplies.  In  
some areas, producers were having great difficulty getting feed to their        
animals.  Producers were reporting much higher than normal death loss and are   
concerned about the upcoming calving season.  Local roads were closed,          
preventing the movement of crops and livestock to market.  Some dairy farms were
dumping milk because milk haulers were prevented from making pick-ups.          
                                                                                
Winter wheat in the central and southern Great Plains was in generally good     
condition.  However, crop condition was down slightly from a month earlier.  A  
continued lack of significant precipitation for the second straight month in an 
area from Texas to Nebraska has had some impact on small grains.  The lack of   
snow cover also affected the crop during periods of extreme cold.  The dry      
weather has created a potential wind damage problem, but only light damage has  
been reported to date.                                                          
                                                                                
A cold front pushed through Florida on January 16th.  On the morning of the 19th
temperatures across much of the interior dropped into the 20's.                 
                                                                                
Readings in the 20's were recorded as far south as southern Florida.  Generally,
temperatures were not low enough, long enough to cause serious damage to citrus 
trees.  However, there was fruit icing in many areas of the State.  The cold    
weather caused varying amounts of damage to southern Florida vegetable crops,   
with significant damage reported in some areas.  The green canopy in sugarcane  
fields was damaged.  In some fields, the leaves were only scorched, and in other
fields, the total top was killed.                                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
Sugarcane:  The 1996 production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is expected to  
            total 29.2 million tons.  This is unchanged from the last forecast  
published in the "Crop Production 1996 Summary," released in mid-January, but   
represents a 5 percent decrease from last years output.  The Florida forecast   
was evaluated and resulted in no change in production.  The forecasts for       
Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas were carried forward from the annual report.       
                                                                                
Dry weather in Florida has allowed the harvest to remain on schedule.           
Approximately 40% of the sugarcane crop was unharvested at the time of the      
freeze in January, with 60 days left to complete the harvest.  In some areas,   
the freeze scorched the top leaves, while in other areas the entire top was     
killed, effectively stopping any further growth.  The juice in the stems did not
freeze so the they were not ruptured.  The canopy is cut off and left in the    
field during normal harvest operations so this did not result in an additional  
loss, and the mills do not expect any change in the amount of cane delivered.   
The freeze may have caused damage to next seasons crop. Some sugarcane that was 
just coming-up was killed back to the ground.                                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
Temples:  The 1996-97 forecast of Florida temples remains at 2.50 million boxes 
          (113,000 tons), 16 percent above last season.  Through January, a     
little over 500,000 boxes are picked.  January surveys indicate that the average
fruit size and the loss due to droppage are both at all-time lows.              
                                                                                
                                                                                
Grapefruit:  The February 1 forecast of the 1996-97 U.S. grapefruit crop is a   
             record large 3.06 million tons, unchanged from last month's        
forecast but 13 percent larger than last year.  This year's crop exceeds the    
previous record of 3.032 million tons in the 1976-77 season.                    
                                                                                
The Florida all grapefruit forecast is a record large 59.0 million boxes        
(2.51 million tons), unchanged from the last forecast but 13 percent more than  
last season.  The all seedless grapefruit forecast is 58.0 million boxes.       
Varietal divisions are maintained at 31.5 million boxes of colored grapefruit   
and 26.5 million boxes of white grapefruit.  If attained, the total seedless    
will be 13 percent above the 51.3 million boxes recorded last season and        
7 percent above the record high of 54.4 million boxes in the 1994-95 season.    
The colored grapefruit forecast exceeds the 1994-95 record crop of 28.7 million 
boxes by 10 percent and last season's crop by 12 percent.  The white variety    
exceeds last season by 14 percent but will not be a record.  The seedy (Duncan) 
grapefruit forecast is continued at 1.0 million boxes.                          
                                                                                
The January fruit size survey indicated that the average fruit sizes for colored
and white grapefruit are almost identical to historic means but are much smaller
than the extremely large sizes seen in the past two seasons.  Fruit loss from   
droppage through late January continued less than average and near the minimal  
loss of  last season.  The first row count survey of the season was conducted on
February 3-4, 1997, to measure harvest progress.  The all seedless percent of   
rows harvested is only slightly less than the percent utilized to the same      
dates.  Recorded utilization of all seedless grapefruit is at 17 million boxes, 
with the colored varieties accounting for nearly 13 million boxes.              
                                                                                
The Florida forecasts are based on objective fruit counts and measurement       
surveys in relationship to the harvest patterns and utilization of the past two 
seasons.  All citrus forecasts project certified utilization including a        
preseason allocation of less than two percent for unrecorded usage.   Certifi-  
cations include only fruit actually shipped in fresh pack or recorded at a      
processing plant.                                                               
                                                                                
                                                                                
Tangerines:  The 1996-97 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at a record large      
             424,000 tons, up 2 percent from January and 22 percent higher than 
last season.  The 1995-96 crop of 348,000 tons was the previous record large    
crop.  Florida's tangerine forecast is up 3 percent from last month to          
6.20 million boxes (295,000 tons), 38 percent more than 1995-96.  Harvest of    
early tangerines was virtually complete for the season, while the Honey         
tangerine harvest was just underway.  Recent weekly estimates of early tangerine
utilization continue beyond expectations.  Loss from fruit droppage of Honey    
tangerines was at a record low through the January survey period, but the below 
freezing weather on January 19 may increase droppage if affected trees are not  
harvested rapidly.  The Arizona and California tangerine forecasts were carried 
forward from January 1.                                                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
Tangelos:  Florida's 1996-97 tangelo forecast is 4.00 million boxes             
           (180,000 tons) up 5 percent  from last month's forecast and          
63 percent more than last season's crop.  Harvest was almost complete with more 
than 70 percent going to the processor.  This is the largest utilized tangelo   
crop since 1987-88.                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
Florida Citrus:  Freezing temperatures the morning of January 19 interrupted    
                 what was otherwise a very warm month. Temperatures were below  
freezing in most citrus counties for varying amounts of time Saturday night and 
Sunday morning.  Temperatures were not low enough to cause serious wood damage  
to trees.  The heavy frost in some locations contributed to some defoliation,   
primarily on younger trees in cold spots.  There was icing in some areas in     
oranges, Temples, Honey tangerines, and tangelos.  Harvest rapidly accelerated  
on the early fruit with most of the damaged crops going to the processors.  Very
little grapefruit was affected by the cold.  There is sufficient undamaged fruit
to continue operating virtually all fresh fruit packing houses.  Utilization of 
early and mid-season oranges is almost 100 million boxes with nearly  98 percent
going to the processors.                                                        
                                                                                
Texas Citrus:  Growers again dodged a cold front in January with little damage. 
               Grapefruit harvest moved ahead with good volume of movement.     
Demand remained good with prices slightly above last season.  Packout rates also
remained good.  Early and mid season orange harvest neared completion.  Valencia
harvest just began.                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
California Citrus:  Wet weather in January slowed citrus harvest.  Grapefruit   
                    picking in the desert area was active with smooth texture   
and fair color.  Lemons throughout the state were harvested.  Packing grades    
have been fair to good, but some scar was reported.  The navel orange harvest   
continued with approximately one-third of the crop picked.  The fruit has very  
large sizes, with some scar, scale, puff, and crease reported.  Valencia orange 
harvest should begin by mid-February in the desert area.  Tangerine picking was 
active with very good quality reported.                                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
Papayas:  Hawaii fresh papaya production is 3.28 million pounds for January.    
          This was 8 percent higher than December, but 8 percent lower than     
January 1996.                                                                   
                                                                                
A mix of rain, sunshine, and gusty winds made weather conditions variable during
January.                                                                        
                                                                                
Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,435 acres, 1 percent lower than     
December and 9 percent lower than January 1996.  Harvested area, totaling       
1,495 acres, was 1 percent higher than last month, but 37 percent lower than a  
year ago.                                                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
California Fruits and Nuts:  Excessive rain and flooding prevented growers from 
                             working in orchards during much of January.  At    
month's end, many trees were still standing in water. Pruning activities in     
orchards and vineyards continued, when possible.  Almonds and early varieties of
stonefruit began to bloom.                                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
Walnuts, 1996 Revised:  1996 California walnut production has been revised to   
                        208,000 tons (in-shell basis), up 1 percent from        
January's preliminary estimate.  This is down 11 percent from 1995's production 
of 234,000 tons.  Estimates for 1996 price and value will be published on       
July 3, 1997.                                                                   
                                                                                
                                                                                
Almonds, 1996 Revised:  1996 California almond production remains unchanged from
                        January's preliminary estimate of 520 million meat      
pounds.  This level is 41 percent higher than 1995's production but 29 percent  
lower than 1994's record high crop.  Value of utilized production for 1996 was a
record high $1.05 billion, 19 percent above 1995 and 9 percent greater than     
1994.                                                                           
                          Report Features                                       
                                                                                
                                                                                
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 11, 
1997.                                                                           
                                                                                
                                                                                
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National  
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.          
                                                                                
                                                                                
C. Ray Halley, Chief                                              (202) 720-2127
                                                                                
  Field Crops Section                                                           
    Bill Dowdy, Head                                              (202) 720-3843
      Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds                     (202) 720-7369
      Dan Kerestes - Corn                                         (202) 720-9526
      Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings                      (202) 720-5944
      Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum                           (202) 690-3234
      Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats       (202) 720-7621
      Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice, Tobacco                      (202) 720-7688
      Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye                            (202) 720-8068
                                                                                
                                                                                
  Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section                                      
    Vince Matthews, Head                                          (202) 720-3843
      Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes                      (202) 720-4285
      Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums,                           
                    Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup              (202) 720-7235
      Linda McMillan - Nuts, Floriculture                         (202) 720-4215
      Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions      (202) 720-2157
      Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas,                 
                      Mushrooms, Hops                             (202) 690-0270
      Blair Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits                       (202) 720-5412
                                                                                
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in  
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,  
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status.  Persons with    
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program         
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA     
Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD).     
                                                                                
To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C.,
20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD).  USDA is an equal
employment opportunity employer.                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                         SUBSCRIBE TODAY!!                                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data       
products, and services:                                                         
                                                                                
                                                                                
                          INTERNET ACCESS                                       
                                                                                
All NASS reports are now available free of charge on the worldwide Internet.    
For access, connect to the Internet and select:                                 
                                                                                
   1.  Worldwide Web:  http://www.usda.gov/nass/       OR                       
                                                                                
   2.  For Gopher/Telenet/FTP access:                                           
       HOST=usda.mannlib.cornell.edu        OR                                  
                                                                                
   3.  For a subscription direct to your e-mail address,                        
       send an e-mail message to:  usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu        
       and in the body of the message type the word:  list                      
                                                                                
                                                                                
                           AUTOFAX ACCESS                                       
                                                                                
NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine.  Please    
call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax.  Respond to the voice
prompts.                                                                        
                                                                                
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -      
                  PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS                              
 CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK:   1-800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada)              
       Other areas, please call l-703-834-0125         FAX:  1-703-834-0110     
 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.)              
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -      
                                                                                
                             ASSISTANCE                                         
                                                                                
For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about
NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics HOTLINE at
1-800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.       
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
          USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum  97                         
                     February 24 and 25, 1997                                   
              Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C.                             
                                                                                
An era of freer markets under the 1996 Farm Bill has begun.  For an expert      
assessment of the impact, attend the Outlook Forum.  Top speakers will discuss  
the 1997 farm outlook, prospects to 2005, risk management, concentration issues,
market stability, world food security, marketing high-valued exports and more.  
Plan now to attend.   For program and registration details, check Forum home    
page, call (202) 720-3050 or dial (202) 219-0296 from your fax machine and      
request document 66666.   Send e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov.                  
                                                                                
Get news from the Forum.  Can't attend? After the Forum, download speeches from 
the Internet. Or, call 1-800-999-6779 to place an advance order for the printed 
proceedings (YCON-97) or new long term projections to 2005 (WAOB-97-1).         
                                                                                
  Ag Forum home page:  http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
                           Agricultural                                         
                             Outlook                                            
                            Forum  97