HDR1012000110010715970830CROP PRODUCTION
 
Crop
Production
 
National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service
 
USDA
Washington, D.C.
 
 
Released July 11, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For
information on "Crop Production" call at (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30
a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.   Forecasts refer to July 1, 1997.
 
 
 
                 All Wheat Production up 7 Percent
 
 
All wheat production is forecast at 2.43 billion bushels, up 7 percent from
1996.  Based on July 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 38.3 bushels
per acre. This is up 2.0 bushels from last year, largely due to a tremendous
increase in winter wheat production.
 
 
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.78 billion bushels, up 11 percent
from last month and 20 percent higher than 1996.  Based on July 1 conditions,
the U.S. yield is forecast at a record high 42.8 bushels per acre. This is up
3.5 bushels from June 1 and 5.6 bushels per acre better than last year.
 
Hard Red Winter wheat production is up 141 million bushels from last month
largely due to increases in acreage to be harvested and improved yields. The
Kansas yield is a new record.  Soft Red Winter, at 455 million, is also up
from a month ago and is near 1995 levels. Illinois and Missouri growers are
now expecting record high yields. White Winter production is up from last
month due to improved Idaho and Oregon yield prospects.
 
 
Other spring wheat production is forecast at 569 million bushels, down
17 percent from 1996.  Based on July 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast
at 30.4 bushels per acre. This is 4.7 bushels per acre below last year. Grain
area totals 18.7 million acres, down 5 percent.
 
Hard Red Spring production is down 18 percent from last year at 513 million
bushels. White Spring production is down 7 percent.
 
 
Durum wheat production is forecast at 80.9 million bushels, down 30 percent
from 1996. Lower expected yields are the main cause of the decline. Based on
July 1 conditions, the U.S.yield is forecast at 25.2 bushels per acre. This is
down 7.5 bushels per acre from last year and the lowest average since 1989.
 
 
Cr Pr 2-2 (7-97)
All oranges:  Production for the 1996-97 season is forecast at a record large
              12.9 million tons, up less than 1 percent from the previous
forecast in June, mainly due to increases in Florida.  The forecast is up
10 percent from a year ago.  This year's crop is 9 percent larger than the
previous record of 11.8 million tons set in the 1979-80 season.  Florida's
production amounts to 226 million boxes (10.2 million tons), up 1 percent from
June's forecast and 11 percent above last season.  Early and midseason varieties
from Florida remain at a record large 134 million boxes (6.04 million tons), 11
percent above last year.  Florida's record large Valencia crop forecast is
increased to 91.5 million boxes (4.12 million tons), up 2 percent from June and
12 percent above last season's crop.  The California all orange production
forecast, at 71.0 million boxes (2.66 million tons), is unchanged from the
previous forecast in April and is up 8 percent from last season.  California's
Navel orange forecast is 43.0 million boxes (1.61 million tons), the same as in
April and up 13 percent from last year's production.  The California Valencia
forecast is 28.0 million boxes (1.05 million tons), unchanged from April and
equal to last year.
 
 
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ):  Yield for the 1996-97 season
                                                  is forecast at 1.58 gallons
per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from June.  The forecast projects the
final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association.  The final
1995-96 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.52 gallons per box at
42.0 degrees Brix.  The average yield for 1996-97 early and midseason varieties
was final in April at 1.52 gallons per box, up from last season's 1.45.
Valencia yield is projected at 1.68 gallons per box, unchanged from last month,
but up from 1.67 last season.
 
 
 
 
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
This report was approved on July 11, 1997, by the Secretary of Agriculture and
the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics Board.
 
 
 
 
 
           Dan Glickman                              Rich Allen
------------------------------       -----------------------------------------
           Secretary of                     Agricultural Statistics Board
           Agriculture                               Chairperson
           Dan Glickman                              Rich Allen
             Crop Summary: Production, United States,
                  1995-96 and Forecasted 1996-97
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         :                Utilized Production
                         :----------------------------------------------------
          Crop           :                :       Jun 1,     :     Jul 1,
                         :                :        1997      :      1997
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Crop Year 1/       :    1995-96            1996-97          1996-97
                         :
                         :                     1,000 Tons
Citrus Fruits            :
  Oranges                :      11,723            12,861            12,918
  Grapefruit             :       2,718             3,062             2,931
  Lemons                 :         992               950               935
  Tangerines             :         348               437               434
  Temples (FL)           :          97               108               108
  Tangelos (FL)          :         110               178               178
  K-Early Citrus (FL)    :           7                 7                 7
                         :
                         :                    Metric Tons
                         :
  Oranges                :  10,634,930        11,667,300        11,719,010
  Grapefruit             :   2,465,730         2,777,800         2,658,960
  Lemons                 :     899,930           861,830           848,220
  Tangerines             :     315,700           396,440           393,720
  Temples (FL)           :      88,000            97,980            97,980
  Tangelos (FL)          :      99,790           161,480           161,480
  K-Early Citrus (FL)    :       6,350             6,350             6,350
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Crop year begins with the bloom of the first year and ends with the
   completion of harvest the following year.
 
 
 
     Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
                 1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
                         (Domestic Units)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         :       Area Planted       :     Area Harvested
          Crop           :----------------------------------------------------
                         :     1996    :    1997    :    1996    :    1997
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         :                     1,000 Acres
                         :
                         :
Oats                     :     4,661        5,264        2,687        3,222
Barley                   :     7,174        6,769        6,787        6,397
All Wheat                :    75,639       70,767       62,850       63,495
  Winter                 :    51,983       48,342       39,709       41,583
  Durum                  :     3,620        3,270        3,546        3,208
  Other Spring           :    20,036       19,155       19,595       18,704
Potatoes                 :
  Winter 1/              :      14.5         15.6         14.5         15.4
  Spring 1/              :      93.4         87.7         90.0         86.1
  Summer                 :      77.9         68.0         74.7         65.1
  Fall                   :   1,268.9      1,198.6      1,245.6      1,181.5
  Total                  :   1,454.7      1,369.9      1,424.8      1,348.1
All Tobacco              :                               732.7        797.0
  Flue-cured             :
    Types 11-14          :                               422.2        452.7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
 
 
  Crop Summary:  Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
                 1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
                         (Domestic Units)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         : Yield per Acre:             Production
      Crop and Unit      :---------------------------------------------------
                         :       :       :           :   Jun 1,  :   Jul 1,
                         :  1996 :  1997 :   1996    :    1997   :    1997
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         :                  ------------- 1,000 ------------
                         :
Oats                 Bu  :  57.8    56.7     155,225                 182,672
Barley               "   :  58.5    58.1     396,851                 371,778
All Wheat            "   :  36.3    38.3   2,281,763               2,430,746
  Winter             "   :  37.2    42.8   1,478,048   1,603,580   1,780,554
  Durum              "   :  32.7    25.2     115,840                  80,927
  Other Spring       "   :  35.1    30.4     687,875                 569,265
Potatoes                 :
  Winter 1/          Cwt :   226     205       3,273       3,157       3,157
  Spring 1/          "   :   249     250      22,417      21,498      21,498
  Summer             "   :   259     252      19,375                  16,418
  Fall               "   :   363             452,039
  Total              "   :   349             497,104
All Tobacco          Lb  : 2,071           1,517,334
  Flue-cured             :
    Types 11-14      "   : 2,151   2,111     908,345                 955,850
Peaches              "   :                 2,070,300   2,140,000   2,648,900
Apricots             Ton :                      79.8       125.0       132.0
Dried Prunes (CA) 1/ "   :                     220.0       215.0       215.0
Almonds (CA)         Lb  :                   510,000     710,000     680,000
Walnuts (CA)         Ton :                     208.0                   230.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
     Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
                 1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
                          (Metric Units)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      :       Area Planted        :     Area Harvested
         Crop         :-------------------------------------------------------
                      :     1996    :     1997    :     1996    :    1997
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      :                        Hectares
                      :
                      :
Oats                  :   1,886,260     2,130,290     1,087,400    1,303,910
Barley                :   2,903,250     2,739,350     2,746,630    2,588,800
All Wheat             :  30,610,350    28,638,700    25,434,770   25,695,790
  Winter              :  21,037,000    19,563,520    16,069,840   16,828,220
  Durum               :   1,464,980     1,323,340     1,435,030    1,298,250
  Other Spring        :   8,108,370     7,751,840     7,929,900    7,569,320
Potatoes              :
  Winter 1/           :       5,870         6,310         5,870        6,230
  Spring 1/           :      37,800        35,490        36,420       34,840
  Summer              :      31,530        27,520        30,230       26,350
  Fall                :     513,510       485,060       504,080      478,140
  Total               :     588,700       554,380       576,600      545,560
All Tobacco           :                                 296,510      322,550
  Flue-cured          :
    Types 11-14       :                                 170,860      183,200
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
 
 
 Crop Summary:  Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
                 1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
                          (Metric Units)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      :Yield per Hectare:             Production
         Crop         :-------------------------------------------------------
                      :        :        :           :   Jun 1,   :   Jul 1,
                      :  1996  :  1997  :   1996    :    1997    :    1997
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      :                      Metric Tons
                      :
Oats                  :  2.07     2.03    2,253,080                 2,651,480
Barley                :  3.15     3.13    8,640,410                 8,094,510
All Wheat             :  2.44     2.57   62,099,410                66,154,060
  Winter              :  2.50     2.88   40,225,870   43,642,300   48,458,740
  Durum               :  2.20     1.70    3,152,650                 2,202,470
  Other Spring        :  2.36     2.05   18,720,890                15,492,850
Potatoes              :
  Winter 1/           : 25.29    22.99      148,460      143,200      143,200
  Spring 1/           : 27.92    27.99    1,016,820      975,130      975,130
  Summer              : 29.07    28.26      878,840                   744,710
  Fall                : 40.68            20,504,150
  Total               : 39.11            22,548,270
All Tobacco           :  2.32               688,250
  Flue-cured          :
    Types 11-14       :  2.41     2.37      412,020                   433,570
Peaches               :                     939,070      970,690    1,201,510
Apricots              :                      72,390      113,400      119,750
Dried Prunes (CA) 1/  :                     199,580      195,040      195,040
Almonds (CA)          :                     231,330      322,050      308,440
Walnuts (CA)          :                     188,690                   208,650
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
             Oats:  Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
             and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :   Area Harvested  :       Yield       :           Production
 State:------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :   1996  :   1997  :   1996  :   1997  :   1995   :   1996   :   1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :    1,000 Acres        -- Bushels --     ------- 1,000 Bushels -------
      :
AL    :     20        23     45.0       40.0        805        900        920
AR    :     25        17     72.0       61.0      1,530      1,800      1,037
CA    :     30        30     75.0       80.0      2,550      2,250      2,400
CO    :     35        28     52.0       62.0      2,046      1,820      1,736
GA    :     35        40     64.0       62.0      1,750      2,240      2,480
ID    :     25        20     75.0       70.0      1,600      1,875      1,400
IL    :     70        75     66.0       72.0      5,360      4,620      5,400
IN    :     25        35     64.0       65.0      2,040      1,600      2,275
IA    :    190       260     68.0       70.0     14,625     12,920     18,200
KS    :     80        80     52.0       55.0      3,760      4,160      4,400
ME    :     28        23     75.0       75.0      1,620      2,100      1,725
MD    :      7         8     62.0       70.0        366        434        560
MI    :     60        90     60.0       60.0      5,130      3,600      5,400
MN    :    270       360     56.0       53.0     18,000     15,120     19,080
MO    :     29        25     53.0       65.0      1,363      1,537      1,625
MT    :     50        70     40.0       52.0      4,720      2,000      3,640
NE    :    105       110     71.0       60.0      4,500      7,455      6,600
NY    :     75       110     57.0       63.0      5,310      4,275      6,930
NC    :     20        25     60.0       66.0      1,950      1,200      1,650
ND    :    380       500     50.0       35.0     21,600     19,000     17,500
OH    :     90       110     57.0       62.0      6,900      5,130      6,820
OK    :     20        45     30.0       49.0        780        600      2,205
OR    :     35        38     97.0      105.0      3,395      3,395      3,990
PA    :    135       160     56.0       55.0      9,440      7,560      8,800
SC    :     30        30     54.0       60.0      1,575      1,620      1,800
SD    :    360       330     60.0       60.0     11,500     21,600     19,800
TX    :    100       150     34.0       52.0      5,040      3,400      7,800
UT    :      9         9     72.0       74.0        630        648        666
WA    :     14        17     80.0       75.0      1,120      1,120      1,275
WV    :      3         4     50.0       47.0        210        150        188
WI    :    300       370     58.0       61.0     18,700     17,400     22,570
WY    :     32        30     53.0       60.0      2,112      1,696      1,800
      :
US    :  2,687     3,222     57.8       56.7    162,027    155,225    182,672
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Barley:  Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
             and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :   Area Harvested  :       Yield       :           Production
 State:------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :   1996  :   1997  :   1996  :   1997  :   1995   :   1996   :   1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :    1,000 Acres        -- Bushels --      ------ 1,000 Bushels -------
      :
AZ    :     54        69     105.0     109.0      1,890      5,670      7,521
CA    :    220       180      60.0      65.0     14,000     13,200     11,700
CO    :     92        90     108.0     120.0     10,000      9,936     10,800
DE    :     23        35      68.0      79.0      2,960      1,564      2,765
ID    :    730       760      73.0      71.0     60,800     53,290     53,960
KS    :     11         9      33.0      47.0        315        363        423
KY    :     20        14      74.0      70.0      1,050      1,480        980
MD    :     49        50      61.0      85.0      5,022      2,989      4,250
MI    :     25        22      48.0      57.0      1,150      1,200      1,254
MN    :    520       570      64.0      61.0     29,000     33,280     34,770
MT    :  1,200     1,200      43.0      52.0     62,400     51,600     62,400
NE    :     17         8      53.0      56.0        222        901        448
NV    :      5         5      75.0      90.0        320        375        450
NJ    :      3         4      60.0      75.0        325        180        300
NC    :     20        20      65.0      71.0      1,800      1,300      1,420
ND    :  2,600     2,200      55.0      45.0    101,250    143,000     99,000
OK    :      3         8      23.0      39.0        170         69        312
OR    :    150       120      64.0      69.0      7,220      9,600      8,280
PA    :     75        75      67.0      67.0      5,175      5,025      5,025
SC    :      4         3      50.0      60.0        210        200        180
SD    :    145       115      44.0      44.0      6,080      6,380      5,060
TX    :     11         5      34.0      49.0        322        374        245
UT    :    100        95      82.0      90.0      8,370      8,200      8,550
VA    :     75        65      68.0      77.0      6,720      5,100      5,005
WA    :    440       490      62.0      66.0     20,880     27,280     32,340
WI    :     75        65      53.0      60.0      3,456      3,975      3,900
WY    :    120       120      86.0      87.0      8,455     10,320     10,440
      :
US    :  6,787     6,397      58.5      58.1    359,562    396,851    371,778
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           All Wheat:  Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
             and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :   Area Harvested  :       Yield       :           Production
 State:------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :   1996  :   1997  :   1996  :   1997  :   1995   :   1996   :   1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      : -- 1,000 Acres --    --- Bushels --     ------ 1,000 Bushels -------
      :
AL    :      80      110     44.0      35.0        2,880      3,520     3,850
AZ    :     178       98     90.4      92.3       10,354     16,090     9,042
AR    :   1,240      790     54.0      45.0       47,000     66,960    35,550
CA    :     688      510     75.2      80.1       32,725     51,750    40,850
CO    :   2,268    2,912     33.3      34.0      105,260     75,500    99,010
DE    :      78       77     53.0      55.0        4,352      4,134     4,235
FL    :      10       15     38.0      39.0          384        380       585
GA    :     350      360     48.0      44.0       11,400     16,800    15,840
ID    :   1,560    1,430     76.4      76.0      103,320    119,200   108,740
IL    :   1,100    1,150     38.0      60.0       68,110     41,800    69,000
IN    :     720      640     38.0      54.0       39,600     27,360    34,560
IA    :      45       25     35.0      38.0        1,225      1,575       950
KS    :   8,800   10,700     29.0      42.0      286,000    255,200   449,400
KY    :     530      500     53.0      52.0       24,380     28,090    26,000
LA    :     130      145     43.0      38.0        2,880      5,590     5,510
MD    :     227      215     52.0      60.0       14,400     11,804    12,900
MI    :     630      540     38.0      54.0       37,200     23,940    29,160
MN    :   2,442    2,405     41.9      37.9       71,849    102,382    91,240
MS    :     230      190     49.0      42.0        6,270     11,270     7,980
MO    :   1,250    1,040     39.0      53.0       47,970     48,750    55,120
MT    :   6,350    6,010     27.8      29.9      195,750    176,710   179,610
NE    :   2,100    1,900     35.0      35.0       86,100     73,500    66,500
NV    :      19       17     86.8      96.5          850      1,650     1,640
NJ    :      38       34     46.0      44.0        1,824      1,748     1,496
NM    :     110      300     37.0      34.0        3,300      4,070    10,200
NY    :     150      135     43.0      52.0        6,875      6,450     7,020
NC    :     590      670     44.0      52.0       28,160     25,960    34,840
ND    :  12,515   11,188     31.6      23.8      300,300    395,130   266,488
OH    :   1,330    1,060     39.0      57.0       73,810     51,870    60,420
OK    :   4,900    5,400     19.0      32.0      109,200     93,100   172,800
OR    :     955      965     70.8      66.4       60,438     67,605    64,030
PA    :     190      175     48.0      52.0       10,175      9,120     9,100
SC    :     270      305     45.0      50.0        8,960     12,150    15,250
SD    :   3,854    3,574     36.1      30.9       90,736    139,270   110,550
TN    :     400      370     44.0      43.0       15,980     17,600    15,910
TX    :   2,900    4,100     26.0      29.0       75,600     75,400   118,900
UT    :     188      189     41.3      45.8        8,950      7,760     8,650
VA    :     275      255     53.0      60.0       17,600     14,575    15,300
WA    :   2,745    2,595     66.5      60.4      153,770    182,670   156,810
WV    :      11        9     45.0      45.0          624        495       405
WI    :     135      142     42.4      51.2        8,070      5,725     7,265
WY    :     269      250     26.4      32.2        7,960      7,110     8,040
      :
US    :  62,850   63,495     36.3      38.3    2,182,591  2,281,763 2,430,746
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Winter Wheat:  Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
              and United States, 1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :  Area Harvested :            Yield            :       Production
      :------------------------------------------------------------------------
 State:        :        :         :        1997       :           :
      :  1996  :  1997  :   1996  :  Jun 1  :  Jul 1  :    1996   :    1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :   1,000 Acres       ------- Bushels -------      -- 1,000 Bushels --
      :
AL    :     80      110     44.0      35.0      35.0        3,520      3,850
AZ    :     14        9     95.0      85.0      85.0        1,330        765
AR    :  1,240      790     54.0      44.0      45.0       66,960     35,550
CA    :    550      380     69.0      65.0      75.0       37,950     28,500
CO    :  2,200    2,850     32.0      33.0      33.0       70,400     94,050
DE    :     78       77     53.0      62.0      55.0        4,134      4,235
FL    :     10       15     38.0      39.0      39.0          380        585
GA    :    350      360     48.0      42.0      44.0       16,800     15,840
ID    :    860      870     80.0      76.0      78.0       68,800     67,860
IL    :  1,100    1,150     38.0      55.0      60.0       41,800     69,000
IN    :    720      640     38.0      53.0      54.0       27,360     34,560
IA    :     45       25     35.0      36.0      38.0        1,575        950
KS    :  8,800   10,700     29.0      34.0      42.0      255,200    449,400
KY    :    530      500     53.0      52.0      52.0       28,090     26,000
LA    :    130      145     43.0      40.0      38.0        5,590      5,510
MD    :    227      215     52.0      55.0      60.0       11,804     12,900
MI    :    630      540     38.0      52.0      54.0       23,940     29,160
MN    :     32       50     36.0      36.0      35.0        1,152      1,750
MS    :    230      190     49.0      39.0      42.0       11,270      7,980
MO    :  1,250    1,040     39.0      45.0      53.0       48,750     55,120
MT    :  1,980    1,500     32.0      35.0      37.0       63,360     55,500
NE    :  2,100    1,900     35.0      35.0      35.0       73,500     66,500
NV    :      9       11    100.0     100.0     100.0          900      1,100
NJ    :     38       34     46.0      46.0      44.0        1,748      1,496
NM    :    110      300     37.0      31.0      34.0        4,070     10,200
NY    :    150      135     43.0      52.0      52.0        6,450      7,020
NC    :    590      670     44.0      45.0      52.0       25,960     34,840
ND    :     75       38     30.0      31.0      26.0        2,250        988
OH    :  1,330    1,060     39.0      54.0      57.0       51,870     60,420
OK    :  4,900    5,400     19.0      27.0      32.0       93,100    172,800
OR    :    850      840     72.0      65.0      67.0       61,200     56,280
PA    :    190      175     48.0      52.0      52.0        9,120      9,100
SC    :    270      305     45.0      47.0      50.0       12,150     15,250
SD    :  1,580    1,150     35.0      33.0      33.0       55,300     37,950
TN    :    400      370     44.0      42.0      43.0       17,600     15,910
TX    :  2,900    4,100     26.0      28.0      29.0       75,400    118,900
UT    :    160      160     38.0      45.0      45.0        6,080      7,200
VA    :    275      255     53.0      54.0      60.0       14,575     15,300
WA    :  2,350    2,150     70.0      63.0      63.0      164,500    135,450
WV    :     11        9     45.0      45.0      45.0          495        405
WI    :    125      135     43.0      50.0      52.0        5,375      7,020
WY    :    240      230     26.0      30.0      32.0        6,240      7,360
      :
US    : 39,709   41,583     37.2      39.3      42.8    1,478,048  1,780,554
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Durum Wheat:  Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
              and United States, 1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :  Area Harvested :            Yield            :       Production
      :------------------------------------------------------------------------
 State:        :        :         :        1997       :           :
      :  1996  :  1997  :   1996  :  Jun 1  :  Jul 1  :    1996   :    1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :   1,000 Acres       ------- Bushels -------      -- 1,000 Bushels --
      :
AZ    :    164      89      90.0     95.0      93.0       14,760       8,277
CA    :    138     130     100.0     95.0      95.0       13,800      12,350
MN    :     10       5      43.0               38.0          430         190
MT    :    270     310      25.0               21.0        6,750       6,510
ND    :  2,940   2,650      27.0               20.0       79,380      53,000
SD    :     24      24      30.0               25.0          720         600
      :
US    :  3,546   3,208      32.7               25.2      115,840      80,927
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
      Other Spring Wheat:  Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
             and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :   Area Harvested  :       Yield       :           Production
 State:------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :   1996  :   1997  :   1996  :   1997  :   1995   :   1996   :   1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :    1,000 Acres        -- Bushels --      ------ 1,000 Bushels ------
      :
CO    :      68       62     75.0      80.0       2,660      5,100      4,960
ID    :     700      560     72.0      73.0      44,800     50,400     40,880
MN    :   2,400    2,350     42.0      38.0      70,400    100,800     89,300
MT    :   4,100    4,200     26.0      28.0     133,000    106,600    117,600
NV    :      10        6     75.0      90.0         450        750        540
ND    :   9,500    8,500     33.0      25.0     221,400    313,500    212,500
OR    :     105      125     61.0      62.0       5,928      6,405      7,750
SD    :   2,250    2,400     37.0      30.0      33,600     83,250     72,000
UT    :      28       29     60.0      50.0       1,950      1,680      1,450
WA    :     395      445     46.0      48.0      20,470     18,170     21,360
WI    :      10        7     35.0      35.0         240        350        245
WY    :      29       20     30.0      34.0         760        870        680
      :
US    :  19,595   18,704     35.1      30.4     535,658    687,875    569,265
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                         Winter Wheat:  Head Population
 
The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting winter wheat
objective yield surveys in 10 States during 1997.  Randomly selected plots in
winter wheat fields will be visited monthly from May through harvest to obtain
specific counts and measurements.  Data in this table are derived actual field
counts.  The final number of heads will be determined when the plots are
harvested at maturity.
 
 
 
                       Winter Wheat:  Heads per Square Foot,
                          Selected States, 1993-97 1/ 2/
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  State and Month :    1993   :    1994   :    1995   :    1996   :    1997
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :                           Number
                  :
CO    July        :      40.0        41.6        52.9        33.5        41.5
      Final       :      39.7        41.6        51.6        33.5
                  :
IL    July        :      46.8        45.8        56.4        40.2        56.7
      Final       :      46.0        45.8        56.4        40.2
                  :
KS    July        :      50.2        49.6        54.5        35.5        48.1
      Final       :      49.1        49.6        55.0        35.6
                  :
MO    July        :      44.9        39.4        49.8        42.8        53.8
      Final       :      44.7        39.4        49.8        43.3
                  :
MT    July        :      34.6        31.0        31.0        29.3        30.9
      Final       :      35.3        31.4        33.7        28.7
                  :
NE    July        :      50.4        45.7        60.3        42.9        48.4
      Final       :      49.8        45.9        58.8        42.6
                  :
OH    July        :      43.1        47.1        53.9        43.1        53.6
      Final       :      42.8        47.1        52.9        43.6
                  :
OK    July        :      45.1        48.0        43.4        32.5        52.8
      Final       :      45.1        48.0        43.4        32.5
                  :
TX    July        :      35.3        35.6        37.9        32.2        42.9
      Final       :      35.4        35.8        38.2        32.3
                  :
WA    July        :      31.1        32.0        29.3        38.1        32.8
      Final       :      30.7        31.9        29.3        37.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Based on the number of heads counted in plots selected for the objective
    yield survey.
2/  Final head counts will be published in the "Small Grains Summary" in
    September.
 
             Wheat:  Production by Class, United States, 1995-1996
                        and Forecasted July 1, 1997 1/
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :            Winter           :             Spring            :
      :-------------------------------------------------------------:
 Year :   Hard  :   Soft  :         :   Hard  :          :          :   Total
      :    Red  :    Red  :  White  :    Red  :   Durum  :   White  :
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      :                              1,000 Bushels
      :
1995  :  825,042  455,568   264,043   475,046   102,280     60,612   2,182,591
1996  :  762,402  422,019   293,627   626,753   115,840     61,122   2,281,763
1997  :1,062,109  454,557   263,888   512,622    80,927     56,643   2,430,746
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available
    for all wheat producing States.  Unless unusual situations dictate, the
    previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast
    season.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
         Tobacco:  Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,
           State, and United States, 1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      :  Area Harvested   :     Yield     :     Production
    Class and Type    :---------------------------------------------------------
                      :  1996   :  1997   : 1996  : 1997  :   1996   :   1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      : ----- Acres -----   --- Pounds --   -- 1,000 Pounds --
                      :
Class 1, Flue-cured   :
 Type 11, Old Belts   :
  NC                  :  76,000    86,000   2,120   2,200   161,120    189,200
  VA                  :  37,700    40,000   2,235   2,100    84,260     84,000
  US                  : 113,700   126,000   2,158   2,168   245,380    273,200
 Type 12, Eastern NC  :
  Belt                :
   NC                 : 167,000   181,000   2,025   2,000   338,175    362,000
 Type 13, NC Border & :
  SC Belt             :
   NC                 :  37,000    38,000   1,980   2,200    73,260     83,600
   SC                 :  51,000    56,000   2,310   2,200   117,810    123,200
   US                 :  88,000    94,000   2,171   2,200   191,070    206,800
 Type 14, GA-FL Belt  :
   FL                 :   7,500     7,700   2,680   2,500    20,100     19,250
   GA                 :  46,000    44,000   2,470   2,150   113,620     94,600
   US                 :  53,500    51,700   2,499   2,202   133,720    113,850
 Total 11-14          : 422,200   452,700   2,151   2,111   908,345    955,850
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Peaches:  Total Production by Type, State, and United States,
                       1995-96 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :                     Total Production
        State       :-----------------------------------------------------------
                    :       1995        :       1996        :       1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :                      Million Pounds
                    :
AL                  :         22.0                  .5                26.0
AR                  :         20.0                 1.2                18.0
CA - Freestone      :        502.0               633.0               760.0
CO                  :         17.0                17.0                 9.0
CT                  :          2.1                 2.8                 2.9
DE 1/               :          2.0                 2.1
GA                  :        160.0                10.0               160.0
ID                  :          4.0                 8.5                 5.5
IL                  :         13.0                 2.0                12.5
IN                  :          5.0                 2.3                 2.5
KS                  :          1.0                  .4                  .2
KY                  :          6.0                  .7                 3.0
LA                  :          5.0                  .2                 5.0
MD                  :         12.0                 9.3                 8.0
MA                  :          1.4                 1.6                 1.6
MI                  :         60.0                40.0                60.0
MO                  :          9.0                 3.3                10.0
NJ                  :         70.0                78.0                80.0
NY                  :         11.5                12.0                14.0
NC                  :         35.0                 1.9                18.0
OH                  :          5.8                 7.1                 5.7
OK 2/               :         30.0                                     6.0
OR                  :          9.0                11.0                13.0
PA                  :         90.0                75.0                75.0
SC                  :        215.0                 3.0               150.0
TN                  :         10.4                  .4                 4.5
TX                  :         24.0                 6.0                20.0
UT                  :          6.3                 7.0                 6.5
VA                  :         26.0                14.0                 8.0
WA                  :         44.0                11.0                50.0
WV                  :         18.0                16.0                14.0
                    :
Total Above         :      1,436.5               977.3             1,548.9
                    :
CA                  :
  Clingstone        :        865.0             1,093.0             1,100.0
                    :
US                  :      2,301.5             2,070.3             2,648.9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Forecast discontinued in 1997.
2/  No significant commercial production in 1996 due to freeze damage.
        Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts:  Total Production by Crop, State,
             and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          :                  Total Production
      Crop and State      :-----------------------------------------------------
                          :      1995       :      1996       :      1997
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          :                        Tons
                          :
Grapes Table Type         :
  CA                      :      707,000           592,000           700,000
Grapes Wine Type          :
  CA                      :    2,275,000         2,225,000         2,700,000
Grapes Raisin Type 1/     :
  CA                      :    2,252,000         2,186,000         2,400,000
All Grapes                :
  CA                      :    5,234,000         5,003,000         5,800,000
                          :
Apricots                  :
  CA                      :       54,000            76,000           125,000
  UT 2/                   :                            300
  WA                      :        6,500             3,500             7,000
  US                      :       60,500            79,800           132,000
                          :
Walnuts 3/                :
  CA                      :      234,000           208,000           230,000
                          :
                          :                    1,000 Pounds
                          :
Almonds (Shelled Basis) 3/:
  CA                      :      370,000           510,000           680,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Fresh equivalent of dried and not dried.
2/  No significant commercial production in 1995 and 1997 due to freeze damage.
3/  Utilized production.
 
     Citrus Fruits:  Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
                     1995-96 and Forecasted July 1, 1997 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :     Utilized Production     :     Utilized Production
                    :            Boxes            :       Ton Equivalent
   Crop and State   :-----------------------------------------------------------
                    : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : 1996-97
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ -----   ------- 1,000 Tons -------
Oranges             :
  Early Mid &       :
   Navel 3/         :
    AZ              :     400       700       400       15        27        15
    CA              :  35,000    38,000    43,000    1,313     1,426     1,613
    FL              : 119,700   121,200   134,200    5,387     5,454     6,039
    TX 4/           :     950       830     1,300       40        35        55
    US              : 156,050   160,730   178,900    6,755     6,942     7,722
  Valencia          :
    AZ              :     650       950       600       24        36        23
    CA              :  21,000    28,000    28,000      788     1,051     1,050
    FL              :  85,800    82,000    91,500    3,861     3,690     4,118
    TX 4/           :     105       110       120        4         4         5
    US              : 107,555   111,060   120,220    4,677     4,781     5,196
  All               :
    AZ              :   1,050     1,650     1,000       39        63        38
    CA              :  56,000    66,000    71,000    2,101     2,477     2,663
    FL              : 205,500   203,200   225,700    9,248     9,144    10,157
    TX 4/           :   1,055       940     1,420       44        39        60
    US              : 263,605   271,790   299,120   11,432    11,723    12,918
Temples             :
  FL                :   2,550     2,150     2,400      114        97       108
Grapefruit          :
  White Seedless    :
    FL              :  25,700    23,200    23,500    1,092       986       999
  Colored Seedless  :
    FL              :  28,700    28,100    31,500    1,220     1,194     1,339
  Other             :
    FL              :   1,300     1,050     1,000       55        45        43
  All               :
    AZ              :   1,400     1,200       900       47        40        30
    CA 5/           :
      Desert        :   3,300                          111
      Other Areas   :   6,000                          201
      Total         :   9,300     8,100     9,200      312       271       308
    FL              :  55,700    52,350    56,000    2,367     2,225     2,381
    TX 4/           :   4,650     4,550     5,300      186       182       212
    US              :  71,050    66,200    71,400    2,912     2,718     2,931
Tangerines          :
  AZ                :     650     1,000       550       25        38        21
  CA 4/             :   2,500     2,600     2,900       94        97       109
  FL                :   3,550     4,500     6,400      168       213       304
  US                :   6,700     8,100     9,850      287       348       434
Lemons              :
  AZ                :   3,600     5,100     2,600      137       194        99
  CA                :  20,000    21,000    22,000      760       798       836
  US                :  23,600    26,100    24,600      897       992       935
Tangelos            :
  FL                :   3,150     2,450     3,950      142       110       178
K-Early Citrus      :
  FL                :     120       160       150        5         7         7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Citrus Fruit Footnotes
 
1/  The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
    the completion of harvest the following year.
 
2/  Net lbs. per box:  oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ  & CA-67,
    FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76, tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90;
    tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95.
 
3/  Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA.  Early (including Navel) and
    midseason varieties in FL and TX.  Small quantities of tangerines in TX.
 
4/  Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
 
5/  California Desert and Other Areas Grapefruit forecasts combined with All
    Grapefruit beginning in 1995-96.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
            Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, Hawaii
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :                    Area                          :  Fresh Production
        :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 Month  :      Total in Crop      :       Harvested        :          :
        :--------------------------------------------------:    1996  :   1997
        :    1996    :    1997    :   1996    :    1997    :          :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :   ------------------- Acres -----------------          1,000 Pounds
        :
  May   :   3,705        4,335       1,940        2,125        3,385     2,860
  Jun   :   3,660        5,245       1,830        2,265        3,105     2,830
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
            Potatoes:  Area Planted by Seasonal Group,
                State, and United States, 1996-97
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonal Group  :           :        ::  Seasonal Group  :           :
  and State     :     1996  :   1997 ::    and State     :     1996  :   1997
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :     1,000 Acres    ::                  :     1,000 Acres
                :                    ::                  :
Winter  1/      :                    ::  Fall            :
  CA            :      5.7       6.6 ::    CA            :     11.5      10.5
  FL            :      8.8       9.0 ::    CO            :     78.0      77.0
  Total         :     14.5      15.6 ::    ID            :    410.0     390.0
                :                    ::      10 SW Co    :     28.0      27.0
Spring  1/      :                    ::      Other ID    :    382.0     363.0
  AL            :      2.0       1.6 ::    IN            :      5.7       5.7
  AZ            :      9.0       6.2 ::    ME            :     78.0      74.0
  CA            :     20.1      18.6 ::    MA            :      2.7       2.7
  FL            :     38.0      36.0 ::    MI            :     52.0      49.0
    Hastings    :     28.5      27.0 ::    MN            :     85.0      79.0
    Other FL    :      9.5       9.0 ::    MT            :     10.4      10.4
  NC            :     17.5      17.0 ::    NE            :     12.7      19.5
  TX            :      6.8       8.3 ::    NV            :      8.0       7.3
  Total         :     93.4      87.7 ::    NM            :      6.7       6.3
                :                    ::    NY            :     29.0      30.0
Summer          :                    ::    ND            :    134.0     125.0
  AL            :      6.8       6.0 ::    OH            :      5.2       5.1
  CA            :      5.8       5.9 ::    OR            :     65.0      57.0
  CO            :      9.9       7.8 ::      Malheur     :     13.6      11.0
  DE            :      6.0       4.3 ::      Other OR    :     51.4      46.0
  IL            :      6.3       4.8 ::    PA            :     17.0      15.0
  IA            :      1.5       1.3 ::    RI            :      0.8       0.8
  MD            :      2.0       3.0 ::    SD            :      6.0       4.5
  MO            :      7.8       6.4 ::    UT            :      4.3       3.1
  NE            :      5.6       4.3 ::    WA            :    163.0     148.0
  NJ            :      2.6       2.1 ::    WI            :     83.0      78.0
  NM            :      3.9       4.4 ::    WY            :      0.9       0.7
  NC            :      1.2       1.2 ::                  :
  TX            :     10.5       8.5 ::    Total         :  1,268.9   1,198.6
  VA            :      8.0       8.0 ::                  :
  Total         :     77.9      68.0 ::    US            :  1,454.7   1,369.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Potatoes:  Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal
             Group, State, and United States, 1995-97
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonal Group :  Area Harvested :      Yield    :          Production
 and           :---------------------------------------------------------------
 State         :    1996 :  1997 :  1996 :  1997 :    1995  :   1996  :   1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :    1,000 Acres     --- Cwt ---     -------- 1,000 Cwt -------
               :
Winter  1/     :
  CA           :    5.7      6.6     250     245     1,300     1,425     1,617
  FL           :    8.8      8.8     210     175     1,173     1,848     1,540
  Total        :   14.5     15.4     226     205     2,473     3,273     3,157
               :
Spring  1/     :
  AL           :    1.9      1.5     160     175       400       304       263
  AZ           :    9.0      6.2     275     275     1,755     2,475     1,705
  CA           :   20.1     18.6     375     385     6,230     7,538     7,161
  FL           :   35.5     35.3     219     215     7,830     7,765     7,591
    Hastings   :   27.5     26.5     230     230     5,940     6,325     6,095
    Other FL   :    8.0      8.8     180     170     1,890     1,440     1,496
  NC           :   17.0     16.5     190     195     3,053     3,230     3,218
  TX           :    6.5      8.0     170     195       925     1,105     1,560
  Total        :   90.0     86.1     249     250    20,193    22,417    21,498
               :
Summer         :
  AL           :    6.7      5.9     150     170     1,139     1,005     1,003
  CA           :    5.8      5.9     360     365     1,760     2,088     2,154
  CO           :    9.7      7.6     330     320     2,776     3,201     2,432
  DE           :    5.9      4.2     250     270     1,475     1,475     1,134
  IL           :    6.0      4.6     275     280     1,485     1,650     1,288
  IA           :    1.5      1.2     210     190       240       315       228
  MD           :    1.9      2.9     200     270       360       380       783
  MO           :    7.1      5.8     230     245     1,587     1,633     1,421
  NE           :    5.5      4.2     270     265     1,254     1,485     1,113
  NJ           :    2.5      2.0     265     225       702       663       450
  NM           :    3.9      4.4     360     320     1,344     1,404     1,408
  NC           :    1.2      1.2      90      95       124       108       114
  TX           :    9.5      7.7     240     200     1,645     2,280     1,540
  VA           :    7.5      7.5     225     180     2,040     1,688     1,350
               :
  Total        :   74.7     65.1     259     252    17,931    19,375    16,418
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnotes at end of table.                                      --continued
  Potatoes:  Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal
       Group, State, and United States, 1995-97 (continued)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seasonal       :  Area Harvested :      Yield    :          Production
Group and      :---------------------------------------------------------------
State          :    1996 :  1997 :  1996 :  1997 :  1995 2/:    1996  :   1997
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :    1,000 Acres     --- Cwt ---     -------- 1,000 Cwt -------
               :
Fall 2/        :
  CA           :   11.5     10.5     400             5,330     4,600
  CO           :   77.8     76.8     370            23,808    28,786
  ID           :  408.0    388.0     343           132,657   139,960
    10 SW Co   :   28.0     27.0     425            11,340    11,900
    Other ID   :  380.0    361.0     337           121,317   128,060
  IN           :    5.2      5.2     260             1,196     1,352
  ME           :   77.0     73.0     275            17,160    21,175
  MA           :    2.6      2.7     260               858       676
  MI           :   46.0     47.5     300            16,350    13,800
  MN           :   82.0     75.0     300            20,790    24,600
  MT           :   10.2     10.4     315             2,940     3,213
  NE           :   12.4     19.1     355             3,680     4,402
  NV           :    7.9      7.2     400             2,774     3,160
  NM           :    6.4      6.3     400             2,394     2,560
  NY           :   28.5     29.0     280             7,695     7,980
  ND           :  131.0    122.0     220            25,410    28,820
  OH           :    5.1      5.0     250             1,404     1,275
  OR           :   64.0     56.0     495            24,788    31,684
    Malheur    :   13.3     10.8     400             4,992     5,320
    Other OR   :   50.7     45.2     520            19,796    26,364
  PA           :   16.5     14.5     255             4,080     4,208
  RI           :    0.8      0.8     265               243       212
  SD           :    5.7      4.3     280               988     1,596
  UT           :    4.2      3.0     280             1,224     1,176
  WA           :  161.0    148.0     590            80,850    94,990
  WI           :   81.0     76.5     390            26,000    31,590
  WY           :    0.8      0.7     280               390       224
               :
  Total        :1,245.6  1,181.5     363           403,009   452,039
               :
  US           :1,424.8  1,348.1     349           443,606   497,104
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/  The first forecast of fall potato production will be released on
    November 10, 1997.
 Fall Potatoes:  Percent of Acreage Planted by Type of Potatoes,
                  11 Major States, 1996-97 Crop
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :                   Potato Types 1/
              :---------------------------------------------------------------
   State      :         Reds        :       Whites        :       Russets
              :---------------------------------------------------------------
              :    1996   :   1997  :  1996   :   1997    :   1996   :   1997
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :                             Percent
              :
CO            :       6          7                    2         94         91
ID            :                           7           8         93         92
ME            :       3          4       64          68         33         28
MI            :       3          3       72          72         25         25
MN            :      28         27       22          14         50         59
NY            :                         100         100
ND            :      20         18       42          39         38         43
OR            :       2          2       35          28         63         70
PA            :                         100         100
WA            :       2          3       15          12         83         85
WI            :      14         10       28          23         58         67
              :
11 State Avg. :       6          6       26          24         68         70
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Predominant type shown may include small portion of other type(s)
    constituting less than 1 percent of state's total.
 
 
 
 
   Fall Potatoes:  Acres Planted for Certified Seed Potatoes,
                  by State and Total, 1996-97 1/
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           :                     1996 Crop                     :  1997 Crop
           :------------------------------------------------------------------
   State   :  Entered for   :                :     Percent     :  Entered for
           : Certification  :   Certified    :    Certified    : Certification
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           :   ---------- Acres ---------           Percent           Acres
           :
AK         :                         146                                  150
CA         :     1,100             1,388              126               1,200
CO         :    13,225            12,419               94              11,500
ID         :    51,730            51,124               99              46,773
ME         :    23,900            22,728               95              19,000
MI         :     2,950             2,434               83               2,500
MN         :    19,376            18,618               96              15,022
MT         :     9,700            10,024              103               9,800
NE         :     8,213             8,071               98               7,900
NY         :     1,550             1,594              103               1,550
ND         :    31,581            29,466               93              27,433
OR         :     2,667             2,752              103               2,526
PA         :       207               208              100                 175
SD         :     2,000               741               37               1,435
UT         :       100               210              210                 100
WA         :     2,100             2,562              122               2,400
WI         :    10,700            10,809              101              10,300
Total      :   179,866           175,295               97             159,764
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Data supplied by State seed certification officials.
 
 
 
                           Crop Moisture
 
Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.
 
Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.
 
Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about
55 degrees fahrenheit.  It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.
 
 
 
 
                          Drought Severity
 
Drought severity index (Palmer):  Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.
 
Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.
 
Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).
 
June Weather Summary:  A 10-week run of unfavorably cool, wet weather finally
                       ended around mid-month across much of the Central and
Eastern States.  In the Southeast, however, damp conditions persisted despite
the return of warmer weather.  Meanwhile in the West, where several early-month
storms deposited rain as far south as the Great Basin and central California,
monthly temperatures averaged up to 3 degrees F below normal.  In contrast,
readings ranged from 1 to 5 degrees F above normal on the northern Plains,
exacerbating topsoil moisture shortages until significant rain arrived at
month's end.
 
Although wetness subsided by mid-month, June rainfall approached record levels
in parts of the Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys.  In Kentucky, June rainfall
was the third-highest on record and greatest since 1960 at both Lexington
(9.54 inches) and Louisville (8.15 inches).  Locations such as Evansville, IN
and Memphis, TN received above-normal precipitation during each of the first
6 months of 1997.  Memphis' January-June rainfall totaled 46.94 inches, second
only to a 48.74-inch total in 1882.
 
Beginning on June 20, intense but localized downpours struck two different
areas.  In southeastern Wisconsin, 9.78 inches pelted Brown Deer on June 20-21.
Milwaukee netted 4.23 inches on June 21 en route to their second wettest June on
record (9.98 inches).  Meanwhile in central Texas, 18.00 inches was reported
near Bandera on June 21-22, northwest of San Antonio.  For the month,
8.97 inches soaked Austin, TX, representing their sixth-wettest June and
greatest June total since 10.85 inches fell in 1987.
 
In contrast, little rain fell across parts of the eastern Great Lakes region and
the Northeast.  In New York, Albany's June rainfall of 0.74 inches was second
only to a 0.65-inch total in 1964.  Similarly, only 0.42 inches dampened Alpena,
MI, second to a 0.20-inch accumulation in June 1991.  Although rain arrived on
the northern Plains at month's end, June rainfall totaled only 1.36 inches
(64 percent of normal) in Glasgow, MT and 0.46 inches (20 percent of normal) in
Williston, ND.  In Florida, Tampa's rainfall of 1.46 inches was second to a
1.26-inch total in 1918.  But much of the rest of the State received adequate to
surplus rainfall, including more than 12 inches on June 9-10 in parts of
southeastern Florida.  Other notable downpours in the Southeast included
7.37 inches in downtown Charleston, SC on June 6, 6.49 inches in Jackson, MS
on June 10, and a 24-hour, monthly record 4.36 inches in Asheville, NC on June
26-27.
 
Despite drier-than-normal weather in North Dakota, runoff from long-term
moisture surpluses continued to boost Devils Lake above the historical
maximum level, set in 1830.  By June 27, the surface of the lake stood
1,442.30 feet above sea level, 1.30 feet higher than the former record, and
41.43 feet above the historical minimum level, set in 1940.  Farther west, snow
melt and above-normal rainfall contributed to flooding in the northern Rockies.
Extensive flooding occurred on Idaho's Snake River Plain and record crests were
reported on several rivers in western Montana.  The Yellowstone River near
Livingston, MT crested on June 5, 0.76 feet above the record set on June 10,
1996.  Meanwhile, reservoir levels in southern Texas continued to rebound from
long-term drought.  The combined holdings of Choke Canyon Reservoir and Lake
Corpus Christi rose to 39.7 percent of normal by June 23, up from 29.4 percent
at the end of February 1997.  In the Ohio Valley, extensive lowland flooding
early in the month subsided as rains became more scattered and temperatures
rose.
 
East of the Rockies, monthly temperatures exhibited little variation from
north to south across the Nation.  As a result, readings in North Dakota (up to
5 degrees F above normal), for example, were only a few degrees cooler than
those in Georgia (up to 5 degrees F below normal).  Several locations across the
Southeast noted their second-lowest June temperatures on record, including
Columbus, GA (75.1 degrees F) and Montgomery, AL (75.7 degrees F).  In Indiana,
Indianapolis waited until June 17 for their first 80-degree maximum of the
month.  Shreveport, LA tallied their first 90-degree maximum of the year on June
15, tying 1976 for their latest date on record.  In Mississippi, Jackson's
first 90-degree day occurred on June 20, a day later than 1974, their previous
record-setting year.  On June 21, the heat that overspread the Northeast
produced a high of 94 degrees F in Albany, NY, their highest since July 14,
1995.  Even the Arizona desert experienced a lack of extreme heat, as Phoenix
failed to reach 110 degrees F by the end of June for the first time since 1965.
 
Despite some cool weather across northern Alaska, much of the State registered
monthly temperatures 2 to 5 degrees F above normal.  On June 2, an 18-degree
reading in Prudhoe Bay was their lowest on record in June.  Nine days later, the
mercury hit 40 degrees F in Barrow for the first time in 278 days, 13 days shy
of their 1967-68 record.  But June 1997 was the warmest on record in Valdez
(56.7 degrees F, 4.9 degrees above normal) and third warmest in Juneau
(56.6 degrees F, 3.6 degrees above normal).  Juneau's maximum of 82 degrees F on
June 22 was their highest since June 20, 1991.  Valdez notched a monthly record
high of 86 degrees F on June 26.  In addition to the warmth, very dry conditions
gripped much of the State.  Kodiak's rainfall of 0.67 inches (14 percent of
normal) was a June record, while Nome's (0.06 inches, 5 percent of normal) was
their lowest in June since 1964.
 
Very wet conditions prevailed in Hawaii's windward (east-facing) locations.  In
Hilo, monthly rainfall totaled 23.22 inches, or 374 percent of normal.
 
 
General Crop Comments:  Mid-month above-normal temperatures brought an end to
                        the 10-week cool spell that slowed crop development and
hindered planting activities in the Eastern United States.  Flooding and ponding
in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys delayed planting and caused farmers to
re-plant low-lying fields.  Soybean planting progressed ahead of normal in most
other areas.  Widespread rain and high heat units after mid-month helped corn
and soybeans to develop rapidly throughout the Corn Belt.  Weed control was a
concern as rains limited spraying, and cool, wet soils prevented cultivating
early in the month.  Average height of the corn acreage varied widely between
early- and late-planted fields.
 
Winter wheat harvest was hampered by damp weather and progressed behind normal
for most of June.  Harvest started slowly in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas as
frequent rains kept combines out of fields.  The persistent cool, wet weather
was an ongoing concern for farmers in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.  Warm, dry
weather in northern winter wheat-producing States allowed fields to head
rapidly.
 
Dry soils in the northern Plains stressed both winter wheat and newly emerged
spring grains.  North Dakota soils were the driest in early June since 1988.
Despite late plantings, spring grains emerged ahead of the normal pace until
lack of moisture slowed development.  Above-normal precipitation combined with
mountain snowpack runoff flooded low-lying fields in Idaho and Montana, but
provided favorable conditions for small grain development.
 
Growing conditions in the Southwest were ideal as a 7-week hot spell ended at
mid-month.  Cotton developed well ahead of average in Arizona and California.
In Texas and the Southeast, cotton planting and development were slowed by
unseasonably cool, wet weather.  Rice development and peanut planting were also
hampered by the cool, wet weather.  Sorghum planting finished just ahead of the
normal pace across the United States.
 
 
Oats:  Oat production for 1997 is forecast at 183 million bushels, up 18 percent
       from last year. If realized, this would be the third lowest oat
production since records were first kept in 1866. The forecasted yield, at
56.7 bushels per acre, is down 1.1 bushels from last year's 57.8 bushels. Area
harvested and to be harvested, at 3.22 million acres, is up 20 percent from
1996. This also would be the third lowest oat acreage harvested for grain on
record.
 
The forecasted yield in North Dakota, at 35 bushels per acre, is down 15 bushels
from 1996 as the State recorded the driest early June soils since 1988. Rain
showers occurred throughout North Dakota the end of June, but seasonal
precipitation remained below normal. In South Dakota, 74 percent of the acreage
was headed, ahead of last year but just behind the average pace. Cool
temperatures and rains in June helped the Wisconsin crop progress rapidly.
 
 
Barley:  Barley production is forecast at 372 million bushels, down 6 percent
         from a year ago but up 3 percent from 1995.  Yields are expected to
average 58.1 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels from last year.  Area harvested
and to be harvested, at 6.40 million acres, is 6 percent below the 6.79 million
acres harvested the previous year.
 
Forecasted yields in Idaho, Kentucky, Minnesota, and North Dakota declined from
1996, but stayed the same or increased in all the other major producing States.
Yields are expected to decline 10 bushels per acre in North Dakota, the leading
barley producing State.  Crop development in the State was ahead of last year,
but behind the 5-year average during June.  Soil moisture supplies were reported
as mostly short to very short in Western North Dakota.  Favorable growing
conditions in other areas of the country, however, have boosted expected yields
over a year ago.  Record yields are forecasted in Colorado, Maryland, Nebraska,
New Jersey, North Carolina, Utah, and Wisconsin.  Harvest ended in early July in
the Desert Valley region of California and is winding down rapidly in the San
Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys.
 
 
Winter Wheat:  Area for grain harvest this year is forecast at 41.6 million
               acres, unchanged from the June 30 "Acreage" and up 5 percent from
1996.  Harvesting progress trailed average in the 19 major producing States as
of June 29.
 
Hard Red Winter Objective Yield head count forecasts remain at record highs in
Oklahoma and Texas, and are well above average in Kansas.  The Kansas head
weight forecast is the highest since 1986. Montana's head weights and numbers
are similar to 1995.  About 3 percent of Nebraska's winter wheat is ripe.
California growers realized much higher yields than expected.  New Mexico's
cutting was 36 percent complete, also with better yields.  The South Dakota crop
is maturing at a near normal pace. Over half of Wyoming's winter wheat was
turning color. Oklahoma's harvest trails average.
 
Harvested yields were generally better than expected in the Southeast and Delta
Soft Red Winter States.  The Florida harvest finished in mid-June and Georgia
and  Louisiana's were nearing completion, as was Mississippi's.  Harvest
progress trailed average in Arkansas, Indiana, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
About 94 percent of North Carolina's wheat is harvested.  Virginia growers have
enjoyed ideal harvest weather.  Objective Yield head counts are well above
average in Illinois, Missouri, and in Ohio.  Forecasted weight per head is below
average for Ohio. Michigan's crop is virtually all headed.
 
Idaho and Oregon growers are now expecting higher yields.  Washington's
Objective Yield Survey head counts and weight forecasts are both above average,
but down from last year.
 
 
Durum Wheat:  Durum production is forecast at 80.9 million bushels, down
              30 percent from 1996.  Lower expected yields are the main cause of
the production decline.  Based on July 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast
at 25.2 bushels per acre.  This is down 7.5 bushels per acre from last year and
the lowest average since 1989.  Area for grain harvest is 3.21 million acres,
down 10 percent from 1996.
 
Arizona and California's desert harvests were virtually complete by July 1.
Drought like conditions have persisted in northeast Montana and western North
Dakota.  Montana's forecast yield is the lowest since 1990, North Dakota's since
1988.  South Dakota durum production has shifted to the drier northwest.
 
 
Other Spring Wheat:  Area for 1997 grain harvest is 18.7 million acres, down
                     5 percent from 1996.
 
Forecasted production is down from last year in the Pacific Northwest (Idaho,
Oregon and Washington) because of a 20 percent acreage reduction in Idaho.
Expected yields are higher than last year in all three States.  Washington's
spring crop was 81 percent headed, Idaho's 49 percent.
 
Yield prospects are above last year in Colorado, Nevada, and Wyoming.  Utah
prospects are down sharply.  Part of Nevada's crop is turning starting to turn
color.  As of June 29, about 19 percent of North Dakota's spring wheat was
heading out.  Soil moisture supplies have generally been short and especially in
the western half of the state.
 
 
Tobacco:  The first flue-cured production forecast for this season is
          956 million pounds, up 5 percent from the 1996 production.  Yield per
acre for all flue-cured is forecast at 2,111 pounds, down 40 pounds from the
1996 average yield.  Acres for harvest, at 452,700 acres, are up 7 percent from
last year.
 
North Carolina's crop is up 11 percent from last year, due to increased
acreages.  North Carolina's tobacco crop was reported in mostly fair to good
condition.  Reduced condition of this year's crop compared to the 1996 crop is a
result of the cooler growing season and reports of blue mold in the Eastern Belt
(Type 12).
 
Generally cooler then normal temperatures during the early part of the growing
season retarded plant growth and increased the incidence of disease.  Warmer
weather during June has improved crop conditions and boosted plant growth.
 
 
Peaches:  The 1997 peach crop is forecast at 2.65 billion pounds, up 28 percent
          from 1996 and 15 percent above 1995 for comparable states.  Despite
some late spring frosts throughout the U. S. in 1997, most states which
experienced total losses in 1996 are facing better prospects in 1997.  The U. S.
Freestone crop is forecast at 1.55 billion pounds, up 58 percent from 1996 and
8 percent above 1995 for comparable states.  The April and May 1997 frosts and
generally wet spring were the most widespread weather problems facing U. S.
peach producers this year.  Growers reported losses ranging from total
destruction of young trees to reduced yields.
 
California's Clingstone crop, at 1.10 billion pounds, is unchanged from last
month's forecast and reflects a 1 percent increase from the 1996 production.
California Clingstone peaches, which are mostly canned, accounted for over
40 percent of U. S. peach production.  Harvest was just beginning on July 1 with
quality very good but some smaller sizes reported.  Off grades are running below
last year's rate.
 
The California Freestone crop is expected to produce 760 million pounds,
30 million pounds above the June 1 forecast and 20 percent above the 1996 crop.
On July 1, harvest was nearing the halfway point, with the midseason varieties,
Flavorcrest and Rich Lady, the major varieties being harvested.  Peach quality
to date is good, and fruit are generally medium sized.
 
No state reported a total crop failure as in 1996.  However, South Carolina and
Oklahoma are still much below their normal levels due to spring frosts.  South
Carolina's production of 150 million pounds is unchanged from the June forecast,
but much above the 3 million pounds produced in 1996.
 
The Georgia peach crop forecast, at 160 million pounds, is also unchanged from
June 1, and well above the 10 million pounds reported in 1996.  Conditions
dropped slightly the first two weeks of June 1997, but improved significantly
during the next two or three weeks as earlier maturing varieties were harvested.
Harvest was 67 percent completed as of June 29, slightly ahead of normal.  There
were some reports of isolated crop damage, but most of the larger growing areas
were unaffected.
 
Prospects for a good crop and large sizes face New Jersey orchardists.  In New
York, the cold spring has delayed development, and additional precipitation in
Pennsylvania would be welcome.  Growers in Michigan and West Virginia continue
to lose trees from recent frigid winters and spring frosts.  The crop in
Michigan is in excellent condition although behind normal maturity.  In the
Midwest and mountain states, brown rot and slower overall development is showing
up on some fruit as the result of frosts, spring rains, and cool temperatures.
Prospects are good in the Pacific Northwest.
 
 
California Grapes:  California's all grape production for 1997 is forecast at
                   5.80 million tons, 16 percent above 1996 and 11 percent
above two years ago.  Wine grapes represent 47 percent of the total, raisin
grapes 41 percent, and table grapes 12 percent.  After years of steady growth,
wine varieties are expected to reach a record high production in 1997 and
produce over four times the quantity of 1972.
 
At 2.70 million tons, wine varieties are 21 percent above 1996 and 19 percent
above two years ago.  Due to the warm, dry spring, grapes are developing well
ahead of normal.  A good quality crop is also expected.  Recent plantings of
such varieties as Merlot and Zinfandel are now reaching bearing age and
contributing to the rapid growth.
 
The forecast for raisin type varieties is 2.40 million tons, up 10 percent from
last year and 7 percent above 1995.  The warm, dry spring weather also hastened
the maturity of the raisin grapes.  Picking of the Thompson seedless variety for
fresh use was winding down by July 1 in the Coachella Valley.  Harvest for fresh
use in the southern San Joaquin Valley was underway by late June.  As in 1996,
no acreage was enrolled in the Raisin Industry Diversion program.
 
Table grape production is forecast at 700,000 tons, up 18 percent from 1996 but
down 1 percent from 1995.  Picking of table grapes was nearing completion in the
Coachella Valley by July 1.  Picking began in late June in the southern San
Joaquin Valley.  Quality was reported above average.
 
 
Apricots:  The final forecast for the 1997 apricot crop is 132,000 tons, up
           almost two-thirds from last year's crop.  California growers had
95 percent of the total and Washington producers the remainder.  Utah's crop was
totally destroyed by frost.
 
California's apricot crop is forecast at 125,000 tons, unchanged from the June
forecast and almost two-thirds above 1996's 76,000 tons.  There was a good fruit
set in California resulting from high winter chilling hours and a warm, mild
spring.  The crop is 7 to 10 days ahead of last year' crop.
Washington's crop, at 7,000 tons, is double 1996's production and 500 tons above
1995.
 
 
California Walnuts:  The 1997 California walnut production is forecasted at
                     230,000 tons on 170,000 bearing acres.  This production is
11 percent above 1996's 208,000 tons.  The increase in production is mainly due
to a much larger Hartley production.  Also, lower blight and less droppage
should result in a cleaner crop with above average quality.
 
 
California Almonds:  California's 1997 almond production is forecast at
                     680 million meat pounds, down 4 percent from the May
forecast but 33 percent above 1996's production.  The crop has a bearing
acreage of 420,000 acres.  Production from the Nonpareil variety is forecast at
333 million pounds, up 33 percent from last season.
 
The average nut set per tree is 7,567, up 38 percent from 1996.  The Nonpareil
average nut set is 7,714, up 55 percent from a year earlier.  The average kernel
weight  for all varieties sampled was 1.59 grams, down 14 percent from last
year.  A total of 97.9 percent of the nuts sampled were sound.
 
The crop is one to two weeks ahead of normal.  There has been some concern about
bud failure, which is a genetic susceptibility of some varieties to high heat.
Some orchards in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley  were subjected to
high heat last summer, affecting this year's bud development.
 
 
Grapefruit:  The final forecast of the 1996-97 U.S. grapefruit crop is
             2.93 million tons, down 4 percent from  last month, but up
8 percent from last season.
 
Florida's all grapefruit forecast was a record large 56.0 million boxes
(2.38 million tons), 5 percent lower than last month, but 7 percent higher
than a year ago.  The all seedless grapefruit forecast is 55.0 million boxes
(2.34 million tons), down 5 percent from June, but 7 percent higher than
1995-96.  The seedy (Duncan) grapefruit forecast continues at 1.0 million boxes
(43,000 tons), unchanged from last month, but 5 percent below last year.
 
The Florida forecasts are based on objective fruit counts and measurement
surveys in relationship to the harvest patterns and utilization of the past
2 seasons.  All citrus forecasts project certified utilization, including a
preseason allocation of less than 2 percent for unrecorded usage.
Certifications include only fruit actually shipped in fresh pack or recorded at
a processing plant.
 
California's grapefruit forecast is 9.20 million boxes (308,000 tons), unchanged
from the last forecast but 14 percent above last season.  Harvest is wrapping up
in the desert area, but continues in areas farther north.  Color and taste
qualities are excellent.  Fruit size is relatively small.
 
The Texas grapefruit forecast, at 5.30 million boxes (212,000 tons), is
unchanged from the last forecast but up 16 percent from a year ago.  Arizona's
grapefruit forecast of 900,000 boxes (30,000 tons) is down 10 percent from the
latest forecast and down 25 percent from the 1995-96 season.
 
 
Lemons:  The 1996-97 U.S. lemon crop is forecast at 935,000 tons, 2 percent
         fewer than last quarter and 6 percent less than last season.
 
California's forecast for the 1996-97 crop is 22.0 million boxes (836,000 tons),
the same as in April but 5 percent more than in 1995-96.  Grades throughout the
state were fair to good with most lemons coming from the South Coast area.
Desert shippers have finished packing.  Arizona's lemon crop is forecast at
2.60 million boxes (99,000 tons), down 13 percent from April and down 49 percent
from a year ago.
 
 
Florida Citrus:  Groves, trees, and new crop fruit were all in very good
                 condition during the month of June.  Normal summer rains
provided adequate moisture in most areas.  Heavier and more frequent
thunderstorms, however, are needed to help refill ponds, lakes, and streams that
were partially drained during the dry spring.  The hot, wet, and humid weather
by mid-June provided ideal conditions for most trees to produce an abundance of
new growth on trees of all ages.  Normal droppage of new crop fruit had abated
by early June as the trees adjusted to the size crop they could carry for the
next season.  Fruit sizes are about normal for this time of year. Harvest of
Valencia oranges slowed to a million boxes per week by the end of the month as
supplies were running low in all areas.  Movement of all seedless grapefruit was
nearly complete for the season as most of the packing houses and processors had
closed.  Several fresh squeeze juice operations are still running and plan to
stay open through most of the summer moving small quantities of oranges and
grapefruit.
 
 
California Fruits and Nuts:  Harvesting of apricots, figs, nectarines, peaches,
                             and plums continued.  Cherry harvest was complete.
Pistachios were treated to control mildew.  Almonds were treated for mites,
especially in the southern San Joaquin Valley.  Apples, pears, and walnuts were
treated for codling moth.  Fruit set and sizing in olives were good.  Grape
harvesting was winding down in the Coachella Valley by July 1 and was underway
in the southern San Joaquin Valley.  Wine grapes were two to three weeks ahead
of schedule in the North Coast area.
 
 
California Citrus:  Lemon grades throughout the state were fair to very good
                    with most lemons currently packed from the South Coast.
Desert shippers have finished packing.  The Navel orange harvest was completed
in early June.  Quality throughout the season was excellent with very large
fruit size.  Picking of Valencia oranges was active throughout the state.
Approximately one half of the crop has been harvested.  Quality was above
average.  The grapefruit harvest is about 75 percent complete.  Harvest was
nearly complete in the desert area, but continues in areas farther north.  Fruit
size was small this year.  Color and taste qualities were excellent.
 
 
Papayas:  Fresh papaya production in Hawaii is estimated at 2.8 million pounds
          for June, 1 percent lower than last month and 9 percent lower than
June 1996.  June weather conditions were variable with warm temperatures, mixed
with sunshine and showers occurring throughout the month.  Growers continue to
plant.  However, some orchards have been abandoned prematurely due to the
severity of papaya ringspot virus infestation.
 
Area devoted to papaya production totaled 5,245 acres, 21 percent more than May
and 43 percent more than a year ago.  Harvested area, estimated at 2,265 acres,
was 7 percent more than last month and 24 percent more than last June.
 
 
All Potatoes:  Potato farmers across the United States have planted an estimated
               1.37 million acres of potatoes in all four 1997 seasons, down
6  percent from last year and 2 percent below 1995.  Area for harvest is
forecast at 1.35 million acres, down 5 percent from a year ago and 2 percent
below two years ago.  Winter plantings were up 8 percent, spring dropped
6 percent, summer fell 13 percent, and fall, with 88 percent of total U.S.
acreage, declined 6 percent.
 
Fall Potatoes:  Area planted to fall potatoes in 1997 is estimated at
                1.20 million acres, down 6 percent from last year's record high
and 2 percent below 1995.  Harvest is expected from 1.18 million acres,
5 percent less than a year ago and 2 percent under 1995.
 
Planting started later than normal in most areas of the U.S. with quite a bit of
uncertainty because of last season's record production and low prices. Growers
in most areas cut back on early maturing varieties.  Progress east of the Rocky
Mountains was slowed by floods, and cool, wet weather.  Planting finished on
time, however, as fields dried in late May and early June.  Crop progress is
later than normal.  In North Dakota, potato plants were 2 inches shorter than
normal on July 1.  Flooding and low prices discouraged farmers in Minnesota.
The Wisconsin potato crop caught up in late June.  In Maine, emergence was
15 percentage points later than normal.  New York and some areas of New England
are now worried about drying soils.
 
Most planting in the Pacific Northwest was accomplished ahead of schedule and
early growth is good.  There was some flooding of the Snake River in eastern
Idaho, with acreage loss and crop setback, otherwise the crop is ahead of
schedule.  Digging in Oregon's Umatilla Basin has already started.  Weather in
Colorado has been nearly ideal for potato growth.
 
Eastern States have estimated planted acres at 122,500 acres, down 4 percent
from last year and 5 percent below 1995.  Maine continued to lose potato acreage
with a 5 percent decline this year.  Pennsylvania acreage dropped 12 percent.
On the other hand, New York acreage increased 3 percent, as Massachusetts and
Rhode Island remained the same as last year.
 
Central States planted an estimated 365,800 acres of fall potatoes this year,
down 5 percent from last year and 2 percent less than 1995.  Acreage jumped more
than 50 percent in Nebraska with new areas coming into production.  Six States
planted less.  Minnesota and North Dakota lost 7 percent each to last year's
level.  Wisconsin and Michigan were down 6 percent.  South Dakota dropped
25 percent, while Indiana stayed the same as a year ago.
 
Western States potato acreage plantings were estimated at 710,300 acres in 1997,
down 6 percent from a year ago and 2 percent below two years ago.  Oregon cut
12 percent, Washington dropped 9 percent, and Idaho 5 percent from last year.
California's growers planted 9 percent fewer potatoes than last year.  Utah
dropped 28 percent and Wyoming 22 percent.  New Mexico's acreage declined
6 percent, while Montana held at last year's level.
 
 
Summer Potatoes:  Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 16.4 million cwt,
                  down 15 percent from last year and 8 percent below 1995.
Farmers expect to harvest 65,100 acres during the summer season, off 13 percent
from a year ago and 8 percent below two years ago.  The average yield, forecast
at 252 cwt per acre, is down 7 cwt from last year and 2 cwt below 1995.  Planted
area of 68,000 acres is down 13 percent.
 
Hot weather in late June has hurt non-irrigated fields on the East Coast.  New
Jersey's growers expect yields to drop 40 cwt per acre from last year.
Virginia's expectations are down 45 cwt.  Fields with irrigation have been
helped in many cases.  Harvest is underway in Virginia's Del-Mar-Va Peninsula,
and will soon start in the other two States.  Alabama's farmers are killing
vines and will harvest as fields dry out a little.  Chip fields in Missouri are
being harvested rapidly, and harvest is mostly finished in the Bootheel area.
New Mexico and Texas will begin digging in mid-July.  Colorado's acreage is down
22 percent, but yields are expected to be good.  California's summer yields are
expected to be above average as harvest is progressing normally.
          Reliability of July 1 Wheat Production Forecast
 
Survey Procedures:  Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted
                    between June 25 and July 3 to gather information on expected
yield as of July 1.  The objective yield survey for winter wheat was conducted
in 10 States that accounted for 63 percent of the 1996 production.  Plots were
revisited to make counts and harvest mature samples.  In late fields, counts
such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were
made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested.   A 5-year
historical head weight is used until the crop matures to the point that heads
can be clipped, threshed, and weighed.  The number of heads times the weight of
the heads in a sample plot can then be expanded to an estimate of yield per
acre.  The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield.
The plots are revisited each month until the crop reaches maturity and or
harvested on the final visit.
 
The farm operator survey included a sample of nearly 16,000 producers
representing all major production areas.  These producers were selected from
respondents to an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable
yield on their operation.  These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing
season to provide indications of average yields as the season progresses.
 
 
Estimating Procedures:  National and State level objective yield and grower
                        reported indications were reviewed for reasonableness
and consistency with historical estimates.  The indications were also reviewed
considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and
previous years.  Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB).  The ASB uses the
survey indications and the State analysis to prepare the published July 1
forecasts.
 
 
Revision Policy:  The July 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead,
                  a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing
season.  End-of-season estimates are made after harvest.  At the end of the
marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks,
production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks.  Revisions are then
made if data relationships warrant changes.
 
 
Reliability:  To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the July 1 winter
              wheat production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a
statistical measure based on past performance, is computed.  This is done by
expressing the deviation between the July 1 production forecast and the final
estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1977-1996 20-year period; the square root of the
average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error."  Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting
this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.
 
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast is
2.0 percent.  This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production
forecast of 1.78 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate
by more than 2.0 percent or approximately 36 million bushels.  Chances are 9 out
of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
3.4 percent or approximately 61 million bushels.  Differences between the July 1
winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 10 years
have averaged 17 million bushels, ranging from 4 million to 61 million bushels.
The July 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 4 times and above 6 times.
This does not imply that the July 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to
understate or overstate final production.
                               Index
 
                                                            Page
 
                                                      Table      Narrative
 
Barley.............................................   A- 7         B- 6
 
Citrus Fruit.......................................   A-15         B- 9
 
Crop Moisture Maps.................................                B- 1
 
Crop Summary.......................................   A- 3
 
Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts......................   A-14         B- 8
 
Oats...............................................   A- 6         B- 5
 
Papayas-Hawaii.....................................   A-16         B-10
 
Peaches............................................   A-13         B- 7
 
Potatoes...........................................   A-17         B-10
 
Reliability Statement..............................                B-12
 
Tobacco, by Class and Type.........................   A-12         B- 7
 
Wheat, All.........................................   A- 8
 
Wheat, by Class....................................   A-12
 
Wheat, Durum.......................................   A-10         B- 6
 
Wheat, Other Spring................................   A-10         B- 7
 
Wheat, Winter......................................   A- 9         B- 6
 
                          Report Features
 
 
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on August 12,
1997.
 
 
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.
 
 
C. Ray Halley, Chief                                              (202) 720-2127
 
  Field Crops Section
    Bill Dowdy, Head                                              (202) 720-3843
      Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds                     (202) 720-7369
      Rhonda Brandt- Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats       (202) 720-7621
      Dan Kerestes - Corn                                         (202) 720-9526
      Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings                      (202) 720-5944
      Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum                           (202) 690-3234
      Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice                               (202) 720-7688
      Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye                            (202) 720-8068
 
 
  Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
    Vince Matthews, Head                                          (202) 720-3843
      Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes                      (202) 720-4285
      Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits                       (202) 720-5412
      Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums,
                    Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup              (202) 720-7235
      Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions      (202) 720-2157
      Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture                             (202) 720-4215
      Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas,
                      Mushrooms, Hops                             (202) 690-0270
      Debbie Williams - Apples, Strawberries, Tobacco             (202) 720-4288
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status.  Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's
TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).
 
To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington,
D.C., 20250, or call 1-800-245-6340 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD).  USDA is
an equal employment opportunity employer.
 
 
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