COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK                                    May 13, 1999
May 1999, ERS-CWS-0499
               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically monthly by the Economic
Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. 
Electronic release only; no printed copies available.  
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HIGHLIGHTS

Larger U.S. Cotton Crop and Stocks Projected in 1999/2000
1999/2000 Foreign Production Falling, Consumption Rising
World Trade Forecast Higher in 1999/2000  
1998/99 U.S. Cotton Estimates Revised Slightly
U.S. Textile Imports and Exports Expand in February
Special Article--California Cotton Planting Progress and Yields: A Review of
1998 and Implications for 1999

Larger U.S. Cotton Crop and Stocks Projected in 1999/2000

The first official USDA forecast for the 1999 season projects U.S. cotton
production at 18 million bales. Based on the March Prospective Plantings
report, cotton planted area in 1999 is expected to reach 13.9 million acres,
4 percent above 1998. In addition, assumptions of average abandonment and
yield were made in reaching the production forecast. Projected harvested area
of 13 million acres is based on the 1988-97 average acreage abandonment
weighted by State. The projected yield of 665 pounds per harvested acre is
based on the 1994-98 average yield weighted by State, dropping the lowest
yield for each State; the resulting aggregate yield is slightly below the
long-term trend. If realized, the 1999 U.S. cotton crop would rise 4 million
bales (29 percent) from 1998's weather-reduced crop.

With U.S. cotton stocks estimated at 3.6 million bales by the start of the
1999 season and production projected to exceed total demand, stocks are
expected to increase significantly next season. In 1999/2000, domestic mill
use is forecast to rise only slightly, to10.6 million bales, as the continued
rise in textile imports is expected to nearly offset the anticipated growth
in retail cotton consumption. On the other hand, U.S. raw cotton exports are
projected to jump by one-third to 5.5 million bales next season as a result
of the large U.S. crop expectations and the improved world consumption demand
outlook. With global trade projected above the current season, the U.S. share
of world cotton trade is expected to rise 5 percentage points to 22 percent
in 1999/2000. Based on these initial U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates,
stocks would rise nearly 2 million bales to 5.5 million by July 31, 2000, a
stocks-to-use ratio of 34 percent, which would be the highest since 1988/89.

As of May 9, U.S. cotton planting progress was running behind both last year
and the 5-year average. Thirty-five percent of the crop was planted as of May
9, compared with 37 percent in 1998 and an average of 42 percent. Delays were
most noticeable in Arizona, Georgia, and South Carolina, where the percent
planted is lagging the 5-year average by 15-20 percentage points. In
contrast, progress in California and Missouri show plantings above the
average and well ahead of last season.    

Foreign Production Falling, Consumption Rising in 1999/2000

Foreign cotton production is expected to fall about 1 million bales in
1999/2000, to 69 million, while foreign consumption is expected to rise 1.6
million bales to about 76 million. Higher foreign imports are also expected
in 1999/2000, up about 900,000 bales to 25.3 million, but foreign exports are
forecast about unchanged from a year earlier, at 19.5 million bales. Lower
foreign stocks are expected in 1999/2000, at 36.2 million bales, or 48
percent of consumption. Compared with 1998/99, expected foreign stocks in
1999/2000 are lower by 1.4 million bales or 3 percent of consumption.

Foreign production is expected to slip below 70 million bales in 1999/2000
for the first time since 1994/95, as low prices during the first
three-quarters of the current marketing year drive production lower in a
number of countries. Production is expected to rebound in a few countries
where 1998/99 yields were damaged by unusual weather.

China's cotton price reforms have reduced its expected return on cotton
production, and lower planting intentions have been reported there for
1999/2000. However, as in the United States, price prospects for competing
crops are also poor, and production could easily overshoot the government's
target of about 17 million bales. Cotton production in China has fallen below
19 million bales only once during the 1990s--in 1993/94, when the bollworm
crisis first struck the North China Plain. China's reported yields have
trended up strongly since then, and in 1998/99 were the second highest ever
despite wide-spread flooding. China's plans to remove official procurement
price floors beginning September 1 and to at least partly end the government
procurement monopoly, add a large degree of uncertainty for its cotton
producers.

India's production in 1999/2000 could be lower than 1998/99's
12.9-million-bale estimate. With a year-to-year increase in production in
1998/99, and lower consumption, India's 1998/99 ending stocks-to-use ratio is
estimated at 44 percent. This is well above the 32-percent ratio estimated
for the preceding 2 years. This would suggest reduced prospects for Indian
cotton producers in general. Producers in the high-yielding northern states
are particularly likely to reduce area in the wake of problems with yields.

Higher production is possible in Uzbekistan in 1999/2000, assuming more
normal weather than in 1998/99, when an unusually cool June reduced yield
potential. The percentage of cotton replanted in 1999/2000 may not be
particularly lower than the year before, but, assuming normal weather, yields
should at least partly recover from 1998/99's 14-percent decline.

Foreign Consumption To Rebound

Foreign cotton consumption is expected to rise 2.2 percent from the year
before in 1999/2000, partly rebounding from a 4.7-percent decline over the
preceding 2 years. As a partial recovery in global economic activity boosts
consumer demand and as the impact of a 25-percent decline in world cotton
prices over the last 2 years increases the profitability of utilizing cotton,
foreign cotton use is expected to return to its 1996/97 growth rate.

Foreign cotton consumption has declined more often than increased during the
1990s, falling in each year except 1995/96 and 1996/97. In contrast, foreign
cotton consumption rose 18.7 million bales, or 31 percent, during the 1980s.
The difference between the two decades was largely due to the collapse of
Russia's and Eastern Europe's textile industries after 1989 and stagnation in
China's cotton consumption after a surge during the 1980s. Since 1989,
foreign cotton consumption has fallen 3.8 million bales or about 5 percent.

China's consumption in 1999/2000 seems likely to be similar to 1998/99's 20
million bales. On the one hand, China reports continued progress in the
spindle reduction campaign that has reportedly destroyed millions of cotton
spindles during calendar 1999. Also, textile exports continue to deteriorate
compared with year-earlier levels. Both factors have been important
considerations in forecasting a decline in China's cotton consumption during
1998/99 than a year earlier. They also highlight reasons for expecting a
continued decline in China's consumption in 1999/2000 in the absence of
changes in China's policies toward textile restructuring and regarding
exchange rates. On the other hand, total production of yarns of all fibers
has begun gaining on year-ago levels in recent months, and concern with
rising unemployment has reportedly altered some previously anticipated
economic policies. The cotton share of China's total textile production has
been falling in recent years, and the textile restructuring efforts have
singled out spindles used for cotton. However, China opened mill purchase
prices of cotton to market forces this year, removing the official floor but
maintaining a provision that marketing agencies could not sell at a loss.
Prices to mills have fallen, and the government has reportedly offered a
subsidy for mills using cotton from Xinjiang. It is not clear that prices of
other fibers have fallen as fast as cotton prices this year, so it is
reasonable to expect the cotton share of textile production to perhaps
stabilize.

Prospects for cotton consumption in Russia and elsewhere in the New
Independent States (NIS) in 1999/2000 are very uncertain, and are far less
relevant to the world outlook than they were a decade ago. The quality of
statistics available for current levels of cotton consumption in the NIS is
not very good, but it is believed that Russian consumption has fallen in the
wake of 1998's financial crisis, and it is difficult to foresee a significant
recovery coming within the next year. Since USDA estimates 1998/99 Russian
cotton consumption at only 800,000 bales, or 1 percent of foreign
consumption--compared with 5.8 million bales in 1989/90, 7 percent of foreign
consumption--the ability of events in Russia to directly influence foreign
cotton consumption has greatly diminished.

Consumption Returning Closer to Trend in 1999/2000

Subtracting China,  the New Independent States, and Eastern Europe (EE) from
the total for foreign cotton consumption gives a better aggregate perspective
on likely developments during 1999/2000. Excluding these countries, foreign
cotton consumption rose steadily until 1997/98--increasing 9 million bales or
16 percent between 1989/90 and 1996/97, to 63.7 million bales. The financial
disruptions that began in Asia in 1997 led to lower consumption in the
following 2 years, and foreign (excluding China, NIS, and EE) consumption
fell 2.6 million bales, largely during 1998/99. Financial stability and
economic growth seem to be returning to much of Asia during calendar 1999,
and the process should continue during 2000. Asian consumers should resume
more normal consumption of apparel. Also, the lagged effects of earlier
declines in exchange rates for textile exporting countries in Asia and
elsewhere should help reduce the costs of apparel imports for the European
Union and the United States, helping stimulate consumption there as well.

Growth in this adjusted foreign mill consumption total averaged 1.3 percent
during the 1990s through 1998/99, or 2.2 percent through 1996/97. For
illustrative purposes, assume that China and the NIS consume the same amount
of cotton in 1999/2000 as the year before; then a forecast of total foreign
consumption growing 2.2 percent from the year before implies an increase in
adjusted foreign consumption of 2.7 percent. This growth rate was achieved
each year during 1994/95-1997/98, and is a reasonable mid-point forecast for
1999/2000 given the recovery in world economic growth and the decline in
cotton prices.

World Trade and U.S. Exports Forecast Higher in 1999/2000

With both world cotton consumption higher in 1999/2000 and exportable
supplies in the world's two largest exporters--the United States and
Uzbekistan--higher as well, world trade is expected to rise 1.3 million bales
to 25 million. Excluding 1998/99, this would be the lowest level of world
trade since 1976/77, and is below the 27-million-bale average of the 1990s.
As with consumption, the likely prospect of little change in imports by China
and Russia from their low 1998/99 levels constrains the outlook for world
trade increases.

Instead of total world trade, historical comparisons are better performed
with a world trade figure adjusted by NIS imports. Since the NIS import
market was largely closed to the outside world until recently, the collapse
of NIS imports distorts historical global figures. Again, for illustrative
purposes, assume no change in NIS activity in 1999/2000 from the year before;
then, adjusted world trade in 1999/2000 is forecast at 23.6 million bales,
about equal to the average for the 1990s of 23.8 million, and slightly below
the 1995/96 peak of 25.9 million.

U.S. exports are expected to increase 1.4 million bales from the year before
in 1999/2000, to 5.5 million, as improved yields boost U.S. exportable
supplies and growing world demand improves prospects for U.S. sales. The U.S.
share of world trade is expected to rebound to 22 percent, compared with 17
percent in 1998/99. During the 1990s to date, the United States has averaged
25 percent of world trade.

Adjusting world trade for NIS imports, the U.S. share of adjusted world trade
is expected to rise from 18 percent to 23 percent. The average adjusted U.S.
share during 1990/91-1998/99 was 29 percent. Thus, while the U.S. share is
rebounding strongly from 1998/99, it remains weaken than this decade's
average performance.

The forecast of 5.5 million bales of U.S. exports in 1999/2000 assumes a
continuation of current U.S. policies, a standard assumption. Similarly, for
China, it is reasonable to assume there is little change in imports in
1999/2000 than the year before. China is currently importing at about a
400,000-bale annual rate, and Chinatex officials have reportedly indicated
that the import quota for calendar 1999 would be of a similar order of
magnitude. Therefore, in 1999/2000, China is likely to import significantly
less than its 1990/91-1998/99 average of 2 million bales per year.

China buys about half of its imports from the United States, about double the
U.S. share purchased by other countries. Thus, lower than average imports by
China probably mean a lower than average U.S. share of world trade.
Similarly, the United States has had at least potential access to Step 2
during most of the 1990s to date, and Step 2 has generally operated in a
manner that increased U.S. exports. Since  an active Step 2 is precluded by
current policies, it is reasonable to expect the absence of Step 2 would mean
a lower than average U.S. share of world trade in 1999/2000 compared with the
rest of the 1990s.

U.S. Cotton Estimates Revised Slightly for 1998/99

Small revisions were made this month to each of the 1998/99 U.S. cotton
supply and demand estimates. First, the National Agricultural Statistics
Service finalized 1998 U.S. production at 13.92 million bales, up marginally
from April's estimate. For details of State and regional data, see the table
in this report. In addition to production, supply was also elevated slightly
by a 50,000-bale increase in the import estimate. As of early May, about
250,000 bales have been imported, according to reports from the Customs
Service, with most of these imports attributable to the Step 3 import quotas
which have been established since early March. As a result, total supply of
U.S. cotton for 1998/99 is estimated at 18.2 million bales.

In contrast, total demand, at 14.6 million bales, did not change this month,
but offsetting adjustments did occur. While mill use was raised 100,000 bales
to 10.5 million, exports were lowered 100,000 bales to 4.1 million. These
revisions were made as a result of the most recent data on consumption and
shipment rates, respectively. Based on these total supply and demand
estimates, U.S. ending stocks on July 31, 1999 are currently estimated at 3.6
million bales, up 100,000 from last month but nearly 300,000 below the
beginning level. As a result, the implied stocks-to-use ratio is 24.7
percent, compared with last season's 20.6 percent.

U.S. Textile Imports and Exports Expand in February

February textile imports, at 892 million (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds, were
about 4 percent above January and 14 percent above February 1998. Increased
imports of apparel and home furnishings more than offset reductions in the
yarn, thread, and fabric and floor coverings categories. While linen, wool,
and silk imports declined from January, February textile imports of cotton
and manmade fibers increased. Cotton imports,  at 510 million pounds,
accounted for 57 percent of the February total and were 16 percent above a
year earlier. U.S. cotton textile imports from Asia still account for about
half of the total, however, increased imports from other North American
countries have boosted the region's percentage to 42 percent in February
1999, compared with 39 percent the year before.

Similarly, February 1999 textile exports, at 355 million pounds, rose nearly
8 percent from January but were slightly below a year earlier. U.S. textile
exports expanded for all major fibers and end-use categories. Cotton exports,
at 164 million pounds, was the single largest fiber shipment and accounted
for 46 percent of the February total. In addition, February cotton textile
exports were 10 percent above January and 8 percent above a year ago. For
February 1999, all categories, except home furnishings, increased from the
previous month.

As usual, U.S. cotton textile exports head mainly to other North American
countries, accounting for 88 percent of the February 1999 total. And, Mexico
continues to be the leading destination, receiving over 40 percent of the
region's total. Although cotton textile exports to other North American
countries increased from the year before, all other regions have registered
declines.

Overall, the cotton textile trade deficit during the first 2 months of 1999
has expanded from a year ago as imports have risen 14 percent while exports
have risen only 7 percent. As a result, the deficit for January and February
1999 totaled 673 million pounds, compared with 576 million a year earlier.

Special Article:
California Cotton Planting Progress and Yields:  
A Review of 1998 and Implications for 1999
by Leslie Meyer

Year in and year out, an abundant cotton crop in California may be the
closest thing to a sure bet in U.S. cotton production. With its desert
climate, total irrigation, and low abandonment, California upland yields
averaging over 1,200 pounds per harvested acre have been commonplace for more
than a decade. However, inclement weather has delayed cotton planting there
in two of the last four years and, subsequently, yields during these years
were reduced more than 20 percent to less than 1,000 pounds per harvested
acre.

The most recent incident occurred in 1998 when California experienced a wet
spring that significantly delayed cotton planting there. Despite the approval
for an earlier allowable planting date, California producers had only 25
percent of their 1998 cotton planted by late April, compared with a "normal"
average of 70 percent. And by May 10, only 60 percent of the crop was
reported planted, compared with an average of over 90 percent. As a result of
these delays, an analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between
California's cotton planting progress and the State's upland yield and to
determine the implications, if any, for average yields in 1998.

A double-log function was estimated with ordinary least squares (OLS) using
data from the 1987-97 crops. The estimated equation was LN(Y) = 7.13814 +
0.59198 LN(X), where LN(Y) is the natural log of California yields per
harvested acre and LN(X) is the natural log of the percentage of California
cotton planted nearest to May 10 of the respective years. The equation
accounts for 63 percent of the variation in upland yields in California
during 1987-97, with a standard error of the estimate equal to 0.068596. For
more details about the regression equation, see the May 1998 Cotton and Wool
Outlook report (CWS-0298).

Based on the results of the OLS regression and the 1998 planting progress, a
projection for California's 1998 average upland yield was estimated at 931
pounds per harvested acre. And, based on the standard error of the estimate,
chances were two out of three that California's yield would range between 865
and 997 pounds. As of this month, final estimates for 1998 cotton production
indicate that California's upland yield equaled 887 pounds per harvested
acre, about 5 percent below the equation's projected average but well within
the calculated range.

While falling behind again early this season, concerns about a repeat of 1998
surfaced. However, planting progress in California has improved dramatically
over the past month and is now above the 5-year average (Table 1). So, what
are the implications for yield in 1999 with planting progress much improved
from a year ago? Based on the estimated equation as presented last year, and
incorporating the 90 percent planted as of May 9, 1999, indications are for
California's upland yield to average 1,183 pounds per harvested acre in 1999.
The standard error around this yield indicates that chances are two out of
three that yields will range between 1,099 and 1,267 pounds.

Will California's 1999 upland yield fall within this range? Only time will
tell once again, but planting progress has been proven to play a significant
role in influencing yields in California. A year ago, yields were examined
when planting progress was reported 95 percent complete near May 10. During
the 5 years where applicable, yields were within the range three of those
years and above the upper bound during the remaining two years. Therefore,
based on past history and the assumption of "normal" weather for the
remainder of the 1999 growing season, implications are for California upland
yields to exceed 1,100 pounds per harvested acre in 1999/2000, a much
improved outlook from a year ago.

Table 1--Cumulative Percent Planted for California Cotton.
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Date           1998           Date           1999      5-Year Avg.
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April 5           5           April 4           2             9
April 12          6           April 11          2            18
April 19         10           April 18         30            36
April 26         25           April 25         40            55
May 3            45           May 2            70            72
May 10           60           May 9            90            82
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Source: Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, USDA.

                                    * * * 

The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0599) will be released on June 14,
1999.
*****************************************************************************
Information Contacts:
Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton and Textiles)   LMEYER@ECON.AG.GOV (202) 694-5307
Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton)   STEPHENM@ECON.AG.GOV    (202) 694-5305 
Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool)   SKINNER@ECON.AG.GOV     (202) 694-5313 
*****************************************************************************
U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
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                                                   1998/99
                                         ----------------------------
Item                          1997/98     Mar        Apr         May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Upland:                                      Million acres
  Planted                     13.648    13.088      13.088     13.064
  Harvested                   13.157    10.486      10.486     10.449

                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           666       612         617        619

                                        Million 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks             3.920     3.822       3.822      3.822
  Production                  18.245    13.366      13.470     13.476
    Total supply 1/           22.178    17.528      17.627     17.678
  Mill use                    11.234    10.290      10.275     10.365
  Exports                      7.060     3.900       3.900      3.800
    Total use                 18.294    14.190      14.175     14.165
  Ending stocks                3.822     3.300       3.400      3.488
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio           20.9      23.3        24.0       24.6
  
Extra-long staple:                           1,000 acres
  Planted                        250       330         330        328
  Harvested                      249       237         237        235
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre         1,056       873         893        904

                                         1,000 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks                51        65          65         65
  Production                     548       430         440        442
    Total supply 1/              599       505         520        527
  Mill use                       115       110         125        135
  Exports                        440       300         300        300
    Total use                    555       410         425        435
  Ending stocks                   65       100         100        112
                                               Percent
Stocks-to-use ratio             11.7      24.4        23.5       25.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports.

WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   1998/99
                                        ------------------------------
Item                          1997/98     Mar        Apr         May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Supply:                                 Million 480-lb. bales
Beginning stocks
  World                        38.16     41.51      41.41       41.17
  Foreign                      34.19     37.62      37.52       37.29
Production
  World                        91.60     85.29      84.68       84.07
  Foreign                      72.80     71.49      70.77       70.15
Imports
  World                        26.66     24.64      24.72       24.80
  Foreign                      26.65     24.29      24.37       24.40
Use:
Mill use 
  World                        88.40     85.01      84.72       84.79
  Foreign                      77.05     74.61      74.32       74.29 
Exports
  World                        26.59     23.93      23.84       23.74
  Foreign                      19.09     19.73      19.64       19.64
Ending stocks
  World                        41.17     42.17      41.92       41.23
  Foreign                      37.29     38.77      38.42       37.63

Stocks-to-use ratio                            Percent
  World                         46.6      49.6       49.5        48.6
  Foreign                       48.4      52.0       51.7        50.7
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates.

FIBER SUPPLY
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         1999                   1998
                               ---------------------------                    
            
Item                           Jan        Feb         Mar        Mar
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Ginnings                       408        90          0           0         
    
Imports since August 1          28.3      40.5         NA         2.7
  Stocks, beginning           10,223     9,597      8,694      11,995
    At mills                     568       586        605         685
    Public storage             9,127     8,677      7,500       9,824
    CCC stocks                 3,530     3,488      1,522       2,564

Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Production                834.6     801.0      864.9       902.7
    Noncellulosic              809.1     778.3      840.1       868.7
    Cellulosic                  25.5      22.7       24.8        34.0
    Total since January 1      834.6   1,635.6    2,500.5     2,641.8

                                1998           1999             1998  
                                        ------------------            
                                Dec       Jan        Feb         Feb
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Million pounds
Raw fiber imports              123.7     125.8      121.6       114.3
    Noncellulosic              117.5     120.3      116.2       105.4
    Cellulosic                   6.2       5.5        5.4         8.9
    Total since January 1    1,500.2     125.8      247.4       241.1

Wool and Mohair:                            1,000 pounds
  Raw wool imports, clean      4,343     6,151      3,553       5,390
    48's-and-finer             2,676     4,416      1,649       3,945
    Not-finer-than-46's        1,666     1,735      1,905       1,445
    Total since January 1     70,508     6,151      9,704      14,180

  Wool top imports               217        35        131          60
    Total since January 1      2,378        35        166         343
  Mohair imports, clean            0         0          0           0
    Total since January 1         11         0          0           2
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available.

COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1999                   1998
                               ---------------------------
Item                            Jan        Feb        Mar         Mar
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
All consumed by mills 1/         882       824        933         972
  Total since August 1 1/      5,215     6,039      6,972       7,625
  SA annual rate 2/           10,489    10,461     10,333      11,241
  SA daily rate 2/              40.3      40.2       39.7        43.1
  Daily rate                    42.0      41.2       40.6        44.2

Upland consumed by mills 1/      870       811        920         962
  Total since August 1 1/      5,145     5,956      6,876       7,550
  SA daily rate 2/              39.8      39.6       39.2        42.6
  Daily rate                    41.4      40.6       40.0        43.7

Spindles in place              5,230     5,212      5,221       5,437
  Active spindles              4,896     4,871      4,821       5,107
    100 percent cotton         2,615     2,608      2,542       2,566
    100 percent manmade          744       753        766         774
    Blends                     1,537     1,510      1,513       1,767
                                             Percent 
Cotton's share of fibers        79.2      79.7       79.3        77.9

Manmade:                                    1,000 pounds
Total consumed by mills 1/   110,957   100,718    116,682     132,049
  Total since August 1 1/    641,924   742,642    859,323     994,112
  Daily rate                   5,284     5,036      5,073       6,002
    Noncellulosic staple       4,944     4,689      4,728       5,527
    Cellulosic staple            340       347        345         475
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted.

FIBER EXPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 1998           1999             1998
                                         -----------------
Item                             Dec       Jan        Feb         Feb
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Upland exports               1,007        110       148         718
    Total since August 1       2,710      2,820     2,968       3,768  
  Sales for next season           22         27        50          93
    Total since August 1         171        198       247         392

  ELS exports                   19.9       46.4      33.7        59.4
    Total since August 1        59.4      105.8     139.5       255.8  
  Sales for next season          4.4       11.9       3.4        11.9
    Total since August 1        13.7       25.6      29.0        39.2 

Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Raw fiber exports             80.9       71.9      72.7        82.6
    Noncellulosic               67.4       69.2      70.0        79.1
    Cellulosic                   1.9        2.7       2.7         3.5
    Total since January 1    1,014.5       71.9     144.6       258.3

Wool and Mohair:                           1,000 pounds
  Raw wool exports, clean       55.0        9.0     124.3        30.8
   Total since January 1     1,720.6        9.0     133.3       412.6
  Wool top exports             222.9      401.0     356.7       271.4
    Total since January 1    5,556.7      401.0     757.7     1,138.8
  Mohair exports, clean        404.7      256.0     166.3        30.1
    Total since January 1    2,273.7      256.0     422.3        75.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------

FIBER PRICES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1999                  1998
                               ---------------------------     
Item                             Feb       Mar       Apr         Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Domestic cotton prices:                    Cents per pound
  Adjusted World Price         42.11     42.64      43.97       51.29
  May'99 futures               58.72     61.09      59.34       71.04
  Dec'99 futures               60.32     59.80      59.63       71.35
  Upland spot 41-34            55.46     58.17      57.01       61.88
  Pima spot 03-46              94.50     86.37      84.57      102.57
  Avg. price received by:  
    Upland producers           56.00     55.30      55.70       63.60

  Mill delivered:
    Cotton
      Actual                   63.39     66.31      64.69       69.50
      Raw fiber equivalent     70.43     73.68      71.88       77.22
    Rayon staple
      Actual                  101.00    101.00     101.00      115.00
      Raw fiber equivalent    105.21    105.21     105.21      119.79
    Polyester staple
      Actual                   51.00     51.00      51.00       65.00
      Raw fiber equivalent     53.13     53.13      53.13       67.71

    Price ratios                               Percent
      Cotton/rayon              66.9      70.0       68.3        64.5
      Cotton/polyester         132.6     138.7      135.3       114.1

Northern Europe cotton quotes:            Cents per pound
  A Index                      56.26     56.74       57.86      65.08
  Memphis Territory               NQ        NQ          NQ      71.75
  California/Arizona           69.25     71.63       68.40      72.33
  B Index                      53.30     53.28          NQ      63.85
  Orleans/Texas                61.38     64.00          NQ      66.45
                
Wool prices (clean):                      Dollars per pound
 U.S. 56's                      0.70      0.65       0.65        1.12         
  Australian 56's 1/            1.33      1.36       1.36        1.71
 U.S. 60's                      0.95      0.95       0.87        1.50
  Australian 60's 1/            1.42      1.47       1.44        1.80
 U.S. 64's                      1.15      1.15       1.10        1.88
  Australian 64's 1/            1.50      1.57       1.56        2.05
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NQ = No quotes.
1/ In bond, Charleston, SC.

TEXTILE TRADE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                               1998             1999            1998  
                                        ------------------
Item                           Dec        Jan        Feb         Feb
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Imports:                                   1,000 pounds 1/

  Yarn, thread, and fabric  204,841     211,651   210,837     199,034  
    Cotton                   88,033      87,787    87,858      86,309
    Linen                    22,956      26,678    22,587      23,809
    Wool                      3,303       3,114     3,404       3,976
    Silk                        809         736       656         695
    Manmade                  89,740      93,337    96,332      84,245

  Apparel                   545,979     559,038   591,226     505,530
    Cotton                  342,541     340,605   372,491     309,664 
    Linen                    14,661      18,818    16,260      13,840
    Wool                     12,432      12,371    12,891      12,368
    Silk                     12,037      15,148    13,400      12,220
    Manmade                 164,309     172,096   176,385     157,439

  House furnishings          48,220      51,081    54,455      45,180
    Cotton                   34,913      38,059    40,911      34,858
    Linen                       151         289       184         107
    Wool                        210          93        82         117
    Silk                         23          35        24          42
    Manmade                  12,923      12,606    13,254      10,055

  Floor covering             32,414      31,508    29,166      24,256
    Cotton                    4,934       5,134     4,528       3,871
    Linen                     4,897       4,283     3,832       2,948
    Wool                     10,080       9,752     7,074       7,212
    Silk                        572         627       385         499
    Manmade                  11,931      11,712    13,347       9,725

  Total imports 2/          838,819     860,074   892,425     780,370
    Cotton                  474,768     475,496   509,873     438,279
    Linen                    42,690      50,126    42,907      40,752
    Wool                     26,090      25,436    23,318      23,727
    Silk                     13,442      16,547    14,466      13,457
    Manmade                 281,829     292,469   301,861     264,155

Exports:                                  1,000 pounds 1/

  Yarn, thread, and fabric   137,087     149,985    164,714   166,550
    Cotton                    47,945      55,517     63,831    55,380
    Linen                      3,778       4,412      5,419     4,534
    Wool                       3,487       3,382      4,709     4,361
    Silk                       1,537       1,540      1,640     1,932
    Manmade                   80,341      85,133     89,115   100,343

  Apparel                    142,779     143,649    153,768   153,969
    Cotton                    85,027      86,649     93,470    88,452
    Linen                      1,642       1,270      1,658     1,543
    Wool                       5,861       6,097      6,823     8,986
    Silk                       3,217       3,235      3,873     4,029
    Manmade                   47,033      46,398     47,944    50,959

  House furnishings            7,591       6,083      6,264     7,298
    Cotton                     4,853       3,952      3,858     4,417
    Linen                        221         203        196       455
    Wool                          49          40         54       126
    Silk                          49          67        137       190
    Manmade                    2,418       1,821      2,019     2,110

  Floor covering              35,719      28,923     29,805    35,179
    Cotton                     2,881       2,404      2,410     3,352
    Linen                      1,538       1,483      1,584     1,941
    Wool                       2,989       2,352      2,849     2,968
    Silk                          73          82         91       131
    Manmade                   28,239      22,601     22,871    26,786

  Total exports 2/           323,392     328,835    354,826   363,312
    Cotton                   140,769     148,581    163,643   151,671
    Linen                      7,186       7,375      8,866     8,481
    Wool                      12,395      11,881     14,446    16,454
    Silk                       4,875       4,924      5,741     6,283
    Manmade                  158,166     156,074    162,130   180,423
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear.
 
U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                               1998             1999            1998
                                       --------------------
Item                            Dec       Jan         Feb        Feb
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    1,000 pounds 1/

North America                209,927     166,338    213,528   171,560
  Canada                      15,908      16,612     18,828    15,238
  Costa Rica                   8,971       6,174      9,287     7,461
  Dominican Republic          23,327      10,407     20,380    17,250
  El Salvador                 15,845      11,931     15,193    12,865
  Guatemala                   10,776       8,425     10,695     7,921
  Haiti                        3,470       2,185      3,365     2,368
  Honduras                    30,958      23,473     30,744    23,233
  Jamaica                      5,137       3,647      4,360     6,580
  Mexico                      92,008      79,999     96,356    75,557
  Nicaragua                    2,988       3,094      3,701     2,650
                               
South America                  8,379       7,327      7,129     6,055
  Argentina                       10          26         28        27
  Brazil                       2,336       2,637      1,512     1,970
  Chile                           32          26          7        53
  Colombia                     2,891       1,935      2,873     2,083
  Peru                         2,722       2,225      2,147     1,568
  
Europe                        24,830      25,107     27,054    25,558
  Estonia                        915         639        446       686
  France                         490         599        685       606
  Germany                        780         433        700       655
  Italy                        3,510       2,696      3,302     2,806
  Portugal                     2,709       2,203      2,336     2,204
  Russia                         675         707        648     1,115
  Spain                        1,251         828        983       828
  Turkey                       9,156      12,284     13,483    12,056
  United Kingdom               1,609         948      1,005     1,043
  
Asia                         216,104     260,792    247,540   222,022
  Bahrain                      1,143       1,017      1,188       927
  Bangladesh                  11,907      21,566     17,102    17,840
  China                       27,589      32,767     32,477    32,660
  Hong Kong                   28,083      28,773     28,700    21,805
  India                       23,742      31,732     32,072    30,045
  Indonesia                   10,467      14,912     13,868    15,826
  Israel                       2,797       3,145      2,998     2,143
  Japan                        1,479       1,295      1,224     1,079
  Macao                        6,535       6,756      6,483     3,834
  Malaysia                     5,942       6,576      5,116     3,972
  Nepal                        1,642       1,940      2,178     1,488
  Oman                         1,592       1,878      1,789     1,521
  Pakistan                    28,143      30,533     31,208    35,509
  Philippines                  9,207      12,038     11,178     8,379
  Qator                          977       1,208      1,765     1,300
  Singapore                    2,605       2,433      2,434     2,296
  South Korea                  7,233       9,330      8,575     5,537
  Sri Lanka                    6,394      10,084      9,144     7,412
  Taiwan                      12,854      13,764     12,141     8,707
  Thailand                    11,884      12,841     10,645    10,501
  U Arab Em                    1,631       2,590      2,552     2,188

Oceania                        1,429       2,456      1,593     1,515
  Australia                    1,044         654        794       820
  Fiji                           106       1,546        584       526

Africa                        14,099      13,476     13,029    11,569
  Egypt                        6,124       5,671      6,660     6,019
  Lesotho                      1,722       1,560      1,288     1,263
  Mauritius                    2,064       2,079      1,647     1,548
  Morocco                      1,263         900        919       974
  South Africa                   963       1,173        529       363
  Tunisia                         55          85         82        73
     
World  2/                    474,768     475,496    509,873   438,279
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding.

U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                1998           1999             1998
                                        -----------------
Country                         Dec       Jan        Feb         Feb
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   1,000 pounds 1/
 
North America                124,049    129,573   144,006     123,734       
  Canada                      21,870     24,826    25,924      27,049
  Costa Rica                   5,195      6,166     6,286       6,970
  Dominican Republic          12,764     12,945    14,143      14,550
  El Salvador                  5,081      5,282     6,194       6,382
  Guatemala                    2,779      2,620     2,703       3,334
  Haiti                        2,123      2,022     1,576       1,420
  Honduras                    17,139     15,754    19,448      16,309
  Jamaica                      3,988      2,765     3,784       4,739
  Mexico                      51,019     55,782    62,414      41,493

South America                  3,658      3,210     2,963       4,791
  Argentina                      182        141       188         231
  Brazil                         312        404       379         684
  Chile                        1,022        949       321         726
  Colombia                     1,198      1,076       939       1,467
  Peru                           133         82        79          70
  Venezuela                      426        279       703       1,301

Europe                         5,094      7,804     7,997      12,649
  Belgium                        586      1,824     2,513       3,473
  France                         459        292       315         317
  Germany                        807        752       727       1,172
  Ireland                        145         90        91         946
  Italy                          238        760       235         470
  Netherlands                    492        695       552         803
  United Kingdom               1,225      2,568     2,161       3,862

Asia                           6,387      6,757     7,052       8,583
  China                          271        115       230         160
  Hong Kong                      881        717       798       1,184
  Israel                         534        686       514       1,125
  Japan                        2,511      2,955     3,397       3,816
  Philippines                    124        267       241         290
  Saudi Arabia                   514        527       386         279
  Singapore                      288        192       185         193
  South Korea                    285        323       273         149
  Taiwan                         235        149       208         295
  U Arab Em                      198        235       193         350

Oceania                          752        623       680         932
  Australia                      610        484       476         672
  New Zealand                     72         50       105          97

Africa                           828        613       945         982
  Egypt                           53          3        18          77 
  Ghana                           13          2         1          20
  Ivory Coast                     19         44        90          30
  Nigeria                        276        179       185         298
  South Africa                   179         84       286         175

World  2/                    140,769    148,581   163,643     151,671
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding.

FINAL 1998 U.S. COTTON ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
State/
Region         Planted     Harvested        Yield      Production
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           Lbs./          1,000
                   1,000 acres         harvested acre     bales

Upland:
  Alabama         495          475           559            553
  Florida          89           80           489             81
  Georgia       1,370        1,280           578          1,542
  N. Carolina     710          705           699          1,026
  S. Carolina     290          286           587            350
  Virginia         92           91           765            145
    Southeast   3,046        2,917           608          3,697  

  Arkansas        920          900           645          1,209
  Louisiana       535          525           586            641
  Mississippi     950          940           737          1,444
  Missouri        370          357           471            350
  Tennessee       450          445           589            546
    Delta       3,225        3,167           635          4,190

  Kansas           17           17           404             14
  Oklahoma        160          120           560            140
  Texas         5,650        3,300           524          3,600
    Southwest   5,827        3,437           524          3,754

  Arizona         250          248         1,177            608
  California      650          620           887          1,146
  New Mexico       66           60           640             80
    West          966          928           949          1,834

Total Upland   13,064       10,449           619         13,476

Pima:
  Arizona          16           15           830             27
  California      200          180           941            353
  New Mexico        7            7           658             10
  Texas           105           32           791             53

Total Pima        328          235           904            442

Total All      13,392       10,684           625         13,918
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA's May 1999 Crop Production report.

END_OF_FILE