p.1 

OAR Box 1112 

Prepped by Ryan Dugan 

Document Number: 

42) II-C-5C 

Docket Number: 

A-83-22 

Printed 4/16/2008 9:12:07AM Sheet 42 of 97 
P.2 

ESTIMATION OF DAILY LEAD 

UPTAKE IN CHILDREN AND RESULTING 

END-OF-MONTH BLOOD LEAD LEVELS 

2 Z> C - S'C 

OUT 

by 

Ted Johnson and Roy Paul 

PEI Associates, Inc. 

505 South Duke Street, Suite 503 

Durham, North Carolina 27701-3196 

Contract No. 68-02-4309 

Work Assignment No. 22 

PN 3659-22 

Richard B. Atherton, Project Officer 

Jeff Cohen, Work Assignment Manager 

STRATEGIES AND AIR STANDARDS DIVISION 

U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY 

RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NORTH CAROLINA 27711 

February 1986 
P.3 

DISCLAIMER 

This report was prepared by PEI Associates, Inc., Cincinnati, Ohio, 

under Contract No. 68-02-4309, Work Assignment No. 22. It has been reviewed 

by the Strategies and Air Standards Division of the Office of Air Quality 

Planning and Standards,, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and approved for 

publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect 

the views and policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Mention 

of trade names or commercial products is not intended to constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. 

n 
P.4 

CONTENTS 

Figures iv 

Tables iv 

Acknowledgment v 

1. Introduction 1 

2. Estimation of Lead Uptake 3 

Daily lead uptake from lungs 8 

Daily lead uptake related to diet : . . 10 

Daily lead uptake related to dirt 11 

The Multiyear Lead Uptake Program 12 

3. User Prompting and Output Format of the Multiyear Lead 

Uptake Program 13 

4. Estimation of Blood Lead Levels 17 

5. User Prompting and Output Format of the Biokinetics 

Program 21 

6. Sensitivity Analyses 25 

References 30 

Appendices 

A. Estimates for selected parameter values 32 

B. Multiyear Lead Uptake Program and sample outputs 37 

C. Biokinetics Program and sample outputs 54 

m 
P.5 

FIGURES 

Number Page 

1 User Prompting Statements of the Multiyear Lead Uptake 

Program 14 

2 Lead Pathways Considered in Harley-Kneip Integrated Metabolic 

Model 18 

3 Harley-Kneip Integrated Metabolic Model for Determining Lead 

Levels in Four Body Compartments 19 

4 User-Prompting Statements of the Biokinetics Program 22 

TABLES 

Number 

1 

2 

3 

Page 

Parameters in Lead Uptake Model 4 

Estimates for Selected Parameters of Lead Uptake Model. .. . 5 

Year-Specific Estimates for VEHIC, INADIET, and INMISC 

Parameters of Lead Uptake Model 6 

Lower and Upper Bound Estimates for Lead Concentration in 

Street Dust and Soil and in Indoor Dust 7 

Parameter Values for the Biokinetics Program 20 

Initial and Alternate Paremeter Values Used in Sensitivity 

Analyses 25 

Results of Sensitivity Analyses 28 

iv 
P.6 

ACKNOWLEDGMENT 

This report was prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

by PEI Associates, Inc., Cincinnati, Ohio. Mr. Jeff Cohen was the EPA Work 

Assignment Manager and contributed material to Section 6 and Appendix A of 

this report. Mr. David Dunbar served as the PEI Project Director. Mr. Ted 

Johnson was the PEI Project Manager and the principal author of this report. 

Mr. Roy Paul wrote the computer programs which implement the lead uptake and 

biokinetic models. Ms. Alicia Ferdo assisted in compiling input data for the 

programs and in executing the programs. The authors would like to thank 

Mr. Jeff Cohen and Ms. Donna Sledge for their guidance and direction on this 

work assignment. 
P.7 

SECTION 1 

INTRODUCTION 

Under the Clean Air Act, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 

is responsible for establishing National Ambient Air Quality Standards 

(NAAQS's) and for reviewing them periodically to determine their adequacies 

on the basis of recent experience and research. In view of these responsibilities, the Strategies and Air Standards Division (SASD) of the Office of 

Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) is currently assessing health risks 

associated with alternative NAAQS's for lead. A staff paper prepared by SASD 

describes a model for estimating lead uptake in children based on estimates of 

lead concentrations in air, food, and dirt; on estimates of the quantities of 

air, food, and dirt consumed by children; and estimates of the absorption of 

lead by the lungs and gut. PEI Associates, Inc. (PEI),' has written a computer 

program, Multiyear Lead Uptake, which implements the SASD lead uptake model. 

The program provides daily lead uptake estimates for children in user-specified 

census tracts which may or may not be impacted by emissions from lead point 

sources. Children are grouped into cohorts according to age in a user-specified 

base year. The lead uptake estimates are month-specific and span the period 

from the birth of each group through the base year. 

Multiyear Lead Uptake creates an output file which can be directly accessed 

by a second PEI program, Biokinetics, which determines end-of-the-month blood 

lead levels for each cohort from birth through the base year. This program 

2 

is based on a four-compartment metabolic model developed by Harley and Kneip 

which calculates lead concentrations in blood and selected organs based on 

daily lead uptake. 

Section 2 of this report provides the formulas used by the Multiyear Lead 

Uptake Program to estimate lead uptake. The rationale behind these formulas 

is discussed in the staff paper and in Appendix A. User prompting statements 

and output format for this program are described in Section 3. Section 4 

provides a brief description of the Biokinetics Program; Section 5 describes 
P.8 

user prompting statements and program output. The results of a sensitivity 

analysis to determine the effects of varying input parameter values on program 

output are discussed in Section 6. 
P.9 

SECTION 2 

ESTIMATION OF LEAD UPTAKE 

The lead uptake model is intended to be applied to a group of census 

tracts specified by the user. These census tracts comprise the "study area." 

Within the study area, the model provides estimates of the daily average lead 

uptake of specific population cohorts. A cohort is defined as all children 

with a set of user-defined characteristics that reside in a particular census 

tract in a specified year and fall into one of seven age groups: 0 to 0.99 

year, 1 to 1.99 years, 2 to 2.99 years, 3 to 3.99 years, 4 to 4.99 years, 

5 to 5.99 years, and 6 to 6.99 years. Consequently, a study area with 100 

census tracts would contain 700 cohorts. 

The daily average lead uptake (TDLU) of each member of a particular 

cohort is assumed to be identical. The value of TDLU is calculated by the 

expression 

TDLU = UPLUNG + UPDIET + UPDIRT, (1) 

where UPLUNG is the daily average lead uptake from the lungs* UPDIET is the 

daily average lead uptake related to diet, and UPDIRT is the daily average 

lead uptake related to dirt ingestion. Sections 2.1, 2.2, and 2.3 discuss 

how UPLUNG, UPDIET, and UPDIRT are estimated. 

Table 1 lists the parameters which appear in the lead uptake model and 

the units in which each should be expressed. Recommended values for many of 

these variables are presented in Tables 2, 3, and 4 and in the text. A lower 

bound estimate of TDLU is determined by using only lower bound parameter values 

in the lead uptake model. An upper bound estimate of TDLU is determined by 

using only upper bound parameter values. If bounds have not been determined 

for a variable, a "best estimate" value is used in both cases. 

Estimates of TDLU are determined on a monthly basis to reflect the 

ambient air lead data used by the model. These data consist of 12 monthly 
P.10 

1 

1 

Parameter 

ABSDIET 

ABSDIRT 

ABSLUNG 

BACK 

CRVAL 

DIRTCONS 

DUSTIN 

DUSTST 

HOUT 

INADIET 

INAIR 

INDIET 

INDIRT 

INMISC 

IORATIO 

MULT 

OUTAQ 

SOURCEAQ 

TDLU 

UPDIET 

UPDIRT 

UPLUNG 

VEHIC 

VRESP 

WAQ 

WDIRT 

aDimensionle 

TABLE 1. 

Units 

a 

a 

a 

yg/m 

yg/m 

g/day 

yg/g 

yg/g 

hours/day 

yg/day 

yg/day 

yg/day 

yg/day 

yg/day 

a 

a 

yg/m 

yg/m 

yg/day 

yg/day 

yg/day 

yg/day 

yg/m 

m /day 

yg/m 

yg/g 

ss. 

PARAMETERS IN LEAD UPTAKE MODEL 

Definition 

Fraction of ingested diet-related lead which is 

absorbed by gut 

Fraction of ingested dirt-related lead which is 

absorbed by gut 

Fraction of inhaled lead which is absorbed 

through the lungs into the bloodstream 

Background air lead concentration 

Critical outdoor air lead concentration 

Quantity of dirt consumed 

Lead concentration in indoor-dust 

Lead concentration in street dust and soil 

Time spent outdoors 

Lead intake related to atmospheric lead which 

contaminates diet 

Lead intake from air 

Lead intake related to diet 

Lead intake from dirt 

Dietary lead intake related to solder and miscellaneous sources (see text) 

Ratio of indoor air lead concentration to outdoor air lead concentration 

Multiplicative factor for adjusting SOURCEAQ 

Outdoor air lead concentration 

Air lead concentration related to point sources 

Total daily lead uptake 

Lead uptake related to diet 

Lead uptake from dirt 

Lead uptake from lungs 

Air lead concentration related to motor vehicles 

Volume of air respired 

Time-weighted air lead concentration 

Time-weighted concentration of lead in dirt 

4 
P.11 

TABLE 2. ESTIMATES FOR SELECTED PARAMETERS OF LEAD UPTAKE MODEL 

Parameter 

ABSDIET 

ABSDIRT 

ABSLUNG 

DIRTCONS 

HOUT 

IORATIO 

VRESP 

Location 

NA 

NA 

General 

PSd 

NA 

NA 

General 

PS 

NA 

Bound 

Lower 

Upper 

b 

Lower 

Upper 

Lower 

Upper 

b 

Lower 

Upper 

Lower 

Upper 

b 

Lower 

Upper 

0-0.99 

0.42 J 

0.53c 

0.3C 

o.isjl 

0.30c 

0.40 

0.70 

0.1c 

1.0 

2.0 

0.3^ 

0.8C 

0.3C 

2.0 

3.0 

1-1.99 

0.42*: 

0.53c 

0.3 

0.15^ 

0.30c 

0.40 

0.65 

0.1 

1.0 

3.0 

0.3 

0.8 

0.3 

3.0 

5.0 

Ac 

2-2.99 

0.30 

0.40 

0.3 

0.15 

0.30 

0.35^ 

0.60c 

0.1 

2.0 

4.0 

0.3 

0.8 

0.3 

4.0C 

5.0C 

e, years 

3-3.99 

0.30 

0.40 

0.3 

0.15 

0.30 

0.30 

0.60 

0.1 

2.0 

5.0 

0.3 

0.8 

0.3 

4.0J; 

5.0C 

4-4.99 

0.30 

0.40 

0,3 

0.15 

0.30 

0.30 

0.55 

0.1 

2.0 

5.0 

0.3 

0.8 

0.3 

5.0 

7.0 

5-5.99 

0.30 

0.40 

0.3 

0.15 

0.30 

0.30 

0.55 

0.1 

2.0 

5.0 

0.3 

0.8 

0.3 

5.0 

7.0 

6-6.99 

0.18 

0.24 

0.3 

0.15 

0.30 

0.30 

0.50 

0.1 

2.0 

5.0 

0.3 

0.8 

0.3 

6.0 

8.0 

Defined in Table 1 and text. 

Best estimate. Lower and upper bounds not specified. 

'Derived dir 

Appendix A. 

PS = near point source. 

c 3 

Derived directly from lead criteria document. Other values discussed in 
P.12 

TABLE 

Year 

1974 

1975 

1976 

1977 

1978 

1979 

1980 

1981 

1982 

1983 

1984 

1985 

1986 

1987 

1988 

1989 

1990 

1991 

1992 

1993 

1994 

1995 

1996 

1997 

3. YEAR-SPECIFIC ESTIMATES FOR VEHIC, INADIET, 

PARAMETERS OF LEAD UPTAKE MODEL 

VEHIC3 

yq/m5 

1.28 

1.24 

1.20 

1.15 

1.04 

0.86 

0.53 

0.48 

0.42 

0.37 

0.27 

0.18 

0.02 

0.02 

0.02 

0.01 

0.01 

0.01 

0.01 

0.01 

0.01 

0.01 

0.01 

0.01 

INADIET,3 

yg/day 

30.9 

29.8 

28.9 

27.8 

25.1 

20.8 

12.9 

11.5 

10.3 

9.0 

6.5 

4.5 

0.55 

0,36 

0.36 

0.36 

0.36 

0.19 

0.19 

0.19 

0.19 

.0.19 

0.19 

0.19 

AND INMISC 

INMISC,3 

yq/day 

19.6 

19.6 

19.6 

19.6 

19.6 

19.6 

17.8 

16.2 

14.8 

12.5 

12.0 

11.3 

10.6 

10.1 

9.3 

8.2 

7.1 

6.8 

6.4 

6.0 

5.7 

5.7 

5.7 

5.7 

Defined in Table 1 and text. 
P.13 

1 

TABLE 4. LOWER AND UPPER BOUND ESTIMATES FOR LEAD CONCENTRATE 

DUST AND SOIL AND IN INDOOR DUST 

OUTAQ3 

0 

0.2 

0.3 

0.4 

0.5 

0.6 

0.7 

0.8 

1.0 

1.25 

1.5 

1.75 

Boundb 

U 

Lead concentration, yq/g 

Street dust and soil (DIRTST) 

General 

5 

30 

40 

150 

60 

250 

100 

350 

150 

450 

200 

600 

250 

650 

300 

950 

500 

1150 

600 

1250 

700 

1400 

775 

1450 

Near point 

source 

20 

300 

80 

550 

125 

600 

200 

700 

350 

800 

450 

1000 

550 

1150 

650 

1300 

750 

1450 

850 

1600 

1000 

1750 

1075 

1950 

•••••: , 

1 IN STREET 

Indoor dust (DIRTIN) 

General 

5 

30 

70 

200 

100 

'250 

200 

300 

250 

400 

300 

500 

350 

600 

450 

700 

525 

875 

625 

1000 

750 

1150 

800 

1200 

a 3 Outdoor lead concentration, yg/m . 

L = lower, U = upper. 

7 

Near point 

source 

20 

100 

70 

400 

250 

600 

300 

650 

450 

700 

550 

750 

600 

800 

650 

900 

800 

1150 

1050 

1400 

1200 

1700 

1350 

1900 
P.M 

average (January through December) air lead concentration values for each 

census tract. Section 2.4 describes a computer program developed by PEI that 

calculates TDLU values based on an input file consisting of monthly average 

air lead values spanning a user-specified 7-year exposure period. 

2.1 DAILY LEAD UPTAKE FROM LUNGS 

The daily average lead uptake from the lungs, UPLUNG, is estimated by 

the formula 

UPLUNG = (INAIR)(ABSLUNG) (2) 

where INAIR is the average daily intake of air lead by respiration and ABSLUNG 

is the fraction of respired air lead which is absorbed into the blood stream. 

Table 2 lists lower and upper bound estimates of ABSLUNG recommended for use 

with the lead uptake computer program. These estimates appear in the lead 

1 4 

staff paper and are based on analyses by Chan and Lippman, Davidson and 

5 6 

Osburn, and Phalen et al. ABSLUNG is assumed to increase near point sources 

where large particles are more prevalent. Consequently, the bounds for point 

source locations provided in Table 2 are larger than those for general urban. 

locations. A location is assumed to be near a point source whenever the 

value of SOURCEAQ exceeds a specified critical value (CRVAL). SOURCEAQ is 

discussed below. 

INAIR is estimated by the formula 

INAIR = (WAQ)(VRESP) (3) 

where WAQ is the time-weighted air lead concentration and VRESP is the air 

volume respired per day. Table 2 lists lower and upper bounds for VRESP for 

ter 

9 

7 8 the seven age groups as determined by Ferdo, ICRP, and the Nutrition Foundation. 

WAQ is estimated by the formula 

WAQ = (1/24)[(H0UT)(0UTAQ) + (24 - H0UT)(I0RATI0)(0UTAQ)] (4) 
P.15 

where OUTAQ is the average ambient (i.e., outdoor) air lead concentration 

determined for the census tract for the specified month, and HOUT is the aver- ' 

age number of hours spent outdoors per day. lORATIO is the ratio of indoor 

air lead concentration to outdoor air lead concentration. Table 2 lists values of HOUT by age group as determined by the lead staff and by Pope. The 

lower and upper bound values for lORATIO are 0.30 and 0.80, respectively, for 

general urban/rural locations. These are the bounds suggested for indoor 

3 

microenvironments by the lead criteria document. For locations near point 

sources where large particles are more prevalent and infiltration into homes 

is lower, a single "best" estimate of 0.3 is considered appropriate for lORATIO. 

A location is assumed to be near a point source whenever the value of SOURCEAQ 

exceeds CRVAL. 

OUTAQ is estimated as 

OUTAQ = (MULT)(SOURCEAQ) + BKGD. (5) 

SOURCEAQ is the point-source-related component of the ambient lead concentration and is taken from a user-supplied input file specific to the point 

source(s) being considered, the control scenario hypothesized, and the year. 

Within this file, SOURCEAQ values are indexed by census tract and month. 

MULT is a user-specified multiplicative factor by which SOURCEAQ values 

can be adjusted to simulate regulatory impacts on point-source emissions. 

MULT values are year-specific. 

BKGD is estimated by the expression 

BKGD = VEHIC + ADD. (6) 

VEHIC represents the year-specific contribution of motor vehicles to ambient 

lead concentrations. Table 3 lists recommended values for VEHIC. ADD is an 

additive factor which can be used to account for background air lead concentrations not associated with point sources or motor vehicles. ADD values are 

not year-specific. 

In initial applications of the lead uptake model, the value of SOURCEAQ 

was estimated for the geographic centroid of each census tract by the 

Industrial Source Complex (ISC) dispersion model using emissions data for 
P.16 

lead point sources and local meteorological data. Values of SOURCEAQ were 

also calculated by the ISC model for receptor points on a radial grid surrounding each point source. Use of these radial grids permitted estimates of 

SOURCEAQ to be made at receptor points that were closer to the sources than 

any of the census tract centroids. 

Values for MULT were determined by dividing the maximum SOURCEAQ value 

permitted under a given scenario by the largest "as is" or baseline SOURCEAQ 

value determined by the ISC. The latter value was always associated with a 

radial grid receptor point rather than with a geographic centroid. If, for 

example, the maximum SOURCEAQ value permitted after certain emission controls 

3 

are implemented is 0.25 yg/m and the largest baseline SOURCEAQ value determined by ISC is 0.40 yg/m3, then MULT = 0.25/0.40 = 0.625,•• This MULT value 

is then multiplied by the SOURCEAQ value for each census tract centroid as 

indicated by Equation 5. 

Where appropriate, the impacts on lead exposure of two or more point 

sources can be considered simultaneously. In these cases, source-specific 

MULT values can be used to adjust the baseline SOURCEAQ values associated 

with each source. The resulting source-specific SOURCEAQ values can then be 

added together to yield a SOURCEAQ value for each census tract representing 

the combined contribution of all point sources. 

2.2 DAILY LEAD UPTAKE RELATED TO DIET 

The formula used to estimate UPDIET, the average daily lead uptake 

related to diet, is 

UPDIET = (INDIET)(ABSDIET) (7) 

where INDIET is the average daily intake of lead from the diet and ABSDIET 

is the fraction of lead consumed which is absorbed through the gut into 

the bloodstream. Table 2 lists lower and upper bounds for ABSDIET by age 

group as estimated in the staff paper. INDIET is estimated as 

INDIET = INADIET + INMISC. (8) 

INADIET is the average daily dietary lead intake related to the deposition of 

atmospheric lead on food surfaces before and during processing. INMISC is the 

10 
P.17 

average daily dietary lead intake related to solder in canned foods, to water 

distribution systems, to soil lead, and to undetermined sources. Table 3 

lists year-specific "best estimates" for INADIET and INMISC which reflect the 

downward trend expected in lead levels found in food and water (Appendix A) . 

2.3 DAILY LEAD UPTAKE RELATED TO DIRT 

The average daily lead uptake related to dirt is estimated as 

UPDIRT = (INDIRT)(ABSDIRT) (9) 

where INDIRT is the average daily intake of lead through ingestion of dirt 

and ABSDIRT is the fraction of ingested lead which is absorbed through the 

gut into the blood stream. The staff paper estimates ABSDIRT to be 0.30. 

INDIRT is estimated by the formula 

INDIRT = (WDIRT)"(DIRTCONS) (10) 

where DIRTCONS is the average quantity of dirt consumed during the period each 

day when a child is active. This period is assumed to have a duration of 12 

hours. WDIRT is the time-weighted lead concentration of the dirt. The staff 

paper recommends a value of 0.1 g/day for DIRTCONS. WDIRT is estimated by 

the formula 

WDIRT = (1/12) [(HOUT)(-DIRTST) + (12 - HOUT)(DIRTIN)]. (11) 

DIRTST is the lead concentration of street dust and soil. DIRTIN is the 

lead concentration of indoor dust. DIRTST and DIRTIN vary with the ambient 

air lead concentration (OUTAQ) and reflect whether or not the census tract is 

considered to be significantly impacted by a point source. Point source.impact 

is assumed to occur if the value of SOURCEAQ exceeds CRVAL. Table 4 lists 

values of DIRTST and DIRTIN for both nonimpacted and impacted census tracts 

according to OUTAQ value. These estimates were also obtained from the lead 

staff paper. Interpolation is used to determine DIRTST and DIRTIN values for 

OUTAQ values not appearing in the table. 

11 
P.18 

2.4 THE MULTIYEAR LEAD UPTAKE PROGRAM 

Sections 2.1 through 2.3 discuss how a TDLU valve is estimated for a 

single cohort for a given month. The Multiyear Lead Uptake Program calculates 

month-by-month TDLU values by cohort from birth through a user-specified last 

year of exposure (LYOE). A separate output table presents estimates for each 

individual census tract; the individual cohorts within each census tract are 

identified according to age at the begining of the LYOE. The number of children in each cohort is also indicated. These population data are obtained 

from an input data file provided by the user. Section 3 discusses the user 

prompting statements and output format of the Multiyear Uptake Program. 

A second program, Biokinetics, uses the month-by-month daily lead uptake , 

estimates from the Multiyear program to calculate end-of-month blood lead 

concentrations from birth through the LYOE for each cohort. The program 

implements the model described in Section 4. Section 5 discusses the user 

prompting statements and output format of the Biokinetics program. Section 6 

discusses the results of a sensitivity analysis which evaluated the effects 

on program output of varying program input values. 

12 
P.19 

SECTION 3 

USER PROMPTING AND OUTPUT FORMAT OF THE 

MULTIYEAR LEAD UPTAKE PROGRAM 

Appendix B contains a listing of the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program. Figure 1 lists the series of prompting statements by which the program elicits 

instructions, parameter values, and labeling information from the user. 

The user first enters the name of the study area or principal point 

source as a means of labeling the area to which the lead uptake estimates 

apply. Next the user enters the name of the control scenario to which 

the estimates apply. Responses to these two prompts are used solely to 

label output tables. 

The program next requests whether lower or upper bound estimates are to 

be determined. The program then asks for information as to which- population 

subgroups are to be included in the uptake estimates. Note that the user can 

include children from any of six demographic subgroups defined according to 

presence of lead-based paint in housing (yes or no), housing condition (sound 

or unsound), and potential for indirect or secondary occupation lead exposure 

(yes or no). The program also asks if the population age groups are to be 

further subdivided. If the answer is yes, the user can specify what fraction 

of each age group should be included in the lead uptake determination. This 

allows the user to focus on the effects of age-related factors (e.g., pica) 

on lead uptake. 

In response to the next prompting, the user enters the name of a user-created file which contains values for all input parameters other than SOURCEAQ 

and population. This file is referred to as the "Arrays" file. Section 2 

contains recommended values for this file. 

The user next enters the name of a user-created file which contains population data for each of the six demographic groups by age group and census 

tract for the study area under consideration. This file also must list 12 values (January through December) of SOURCEAQ for each census tract. These 

SOURCEAQ values are the monthly average air lead concentration from sources in 

13 
P.20 

COHORT MULTI-YEAR LEAD 

Calculates daily uptake by 

For selected children 

UPTAKE PROGRAM 

month over lifetime 

age 0-6 years 

01-06-1986 

Strategies and Air Standards Division 

SPECIFICATIONS FOR THIS ANALYSIS: 

Enter name of study area or principal point source (in CAPS): 

rjN 

Enter name of control scenario to be analysed (in CAPS);.-

* ^ p 

Lower(0) or upper(1) bound estimate? 

Press CShift-PrtSc) to print these specifications; 

Then press 'ENTER' to continue: 

SPECIFICATIONS CONTINUED: 

Which of the fallowing population groups should be included in this 

analysis? If more than one, group populations will be added. 

i'Note: LPH = lead-painted house; SOE = secondary occupational exposure) 

Children in LPHNunsound, with SOE (Y/N)? 

Children in LPHNunsound, no SOE (Y/N)? 

Children in LPHNsound. with SOE (Y/N)? 

Children in LPHNsound, no SOE (Y/N)? 

Children in non-LPH, with SOE (Y/N)? 

Children in non-LPH, no SOE (Y/N)? 

Should child groups be further subdivided for this analvsis(Y/N)? 

Press (Shift-Prt3c) to print these 

Then press 'ENTER' to continue: 

;peci f ications. 

Figure 1. User prompting statements of the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program, 

(continued) 

14 
P.21 

SPECIFICATIONS CONTINUED: 

Enter name o-f input (Arrays) file in DOS format: 

Enter name o-f input (AQ) -file in DOS format: 

Enter name of output file in DOS -format: 

Enter last year of exposure (4 digits): 1980 

This program uses . a set of 1974-1997 background values for motor vehicles. 

Do you want to substitute a set of rural background values (Y/N) ? 

Year 

Year 

Year 

Year 

Year 

Year 

Year. 

1974 

1975 

1976 

1977 

1978 

1979 

1980 7 

Should background values be used to indicate critical values 

above which point source impact is assumed (Y/N) ? 

Enter alternate AQ critical value (ug/cu.m.) above which 

point source impact should be assumed:' 

Year 

Year. 

Year 

Year 

Year 

Year 

Year 

Enter add 

Enter mul 

Year 

• Year 

Year 

Year 

Year 

V'sar 

Year 

."-.-ess ;'Sh 

"•"hi-r-n ores 

1974 

1975 

1976 

1977 

1978 

1979 

19S0 

i ti ve 

tipli 

1974 

1975 

1976 

1977 

1978 

1979 

1930 

i ft-P 

s " EN 

•ound factor (other than vehicles) to adjust AQ: 

factors to adjust AQ by year: 

rtSc) to print these specifications 

TER'ta c cn t inua: 

Figure 1. User prompting statements of the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program. 

15 
P.22 

the study area during the base year. Paul has developed a program, MATCH-AQ, 

which creates this file using population data from the Bureau of Census and 

dispersion modeling estimates of lead air quality. The program yields 

separate data sets for 1980 and for each of two future years specified by the 

user. The user of the lead uptake program specifies which data set to use by 

entering the appropriate file name in response to a request for the "input 

POPAQ file." The user also specifies the name of an output file which will 

serve as input to the Biokinetics program. 

The user next enters the last year of the seven-year exposure period for 

which the program will calculate lead uptake values. The user is then given 

a choice of 1) having BKGD represent urban locations by incorporating the values of VEHIC listed in Table 3 or 2) specifying an alternative set of BKGD values which better represent rural locations. If the user chooses the latter 

option, the program requests a value for each year of the exposure period. The 

program also asks whether the critical value (CRVAL) for each year should equal 

the BKGD value specified for that year. If the answer is no, the user is asked 

to specify a CRVAL for each year in the exposure period. The remaining promptings request that the user enter a single value for the additive background 

factor (ADD) and seven year-specific values for MULT. 

16 
P.23 

SECTION 4 

ESTIMATION OF BLOOD LEAD LEVELS 

Harley and Kneip have developed an integrated metabolic model which estimates day-by-day blood lead levels based on daily uptake of lead into the 

bloodstream. The model assumes that most (over 95%) of the lead in the body 

is contained in four compartments (bone, liver, kidney, and blood) and that 

lead moves among these compartments in a predictable manner. Figure 2 shows 

the various lead pathways considered in the Harley-Kneip model. Figure 3 

presents the mathematical relationships which the model uses in an iterative 

manner to estimate the total lead content in each compartment as the body 

receives varying daily lead inputs. Harley and Kneip have incorporated these 

relationships into a computer program for estimating blood lead concentrations 

12 in children 1 to 6 years of age. PEI has adapted the Harley-Kneip program 

to accept daily lead uptake values (i.e., TDLU) as estimated for a cohort by 

the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program. The resulting Biokinetics Program tracks 

a cohort from birth on January 1 of a user-specified calendar year through 

the last day of a user-specified calendar year. A year is assumed to contain 

12 months of 30 days. The cohort receives the same daily lead uptake for each 

of the 30 days in a month. This value is the TDLU value estimated for that 

month by the Multiyear Lead Uptake Model. The Biokinetics Program calculates 

the resulting blood lead concentration on a daily basis but prints out only 

end-of-the-month values. Thus, 360 sequential blood lead concentrations are 

calculated for a given year, but only the 12 end-of-the-month values are 

actually printed out. 

Table 5 lists the parameter values used by Harley and Kneip in their 

model. These have been incorporated into the Biokinetics Program. Note 

that many of these values change with the age of the child. Section 5 presents 

typical output from the Biokinetics Program. 

17 
P.24 

' cNWJl/c«* 

FXGi 

( Bone ) 

Csb 

• 

^bu 

Figure 2. Lead pathways considered in?Harley-Kneip 

integrated metabolic model. 

18 
P.25 

dB/dt - P - C b a x B - C b l x B - Cb fc x B • C s b x S + C l b x L + 

Ckb * K " C b u x B * F x C lg x L 

dS/dt - C b a x B - C a b x S 

dL/dt - C b l x B - C l b x L - C l g x I. 

dK/dt - Cb lt x B - Cj.b x K 

Where P. - datly Input to blood ln ug/day 

C b - blood to skeleton renoval rate (days"'') 

C b - skeleton to blood removal rate " 

Cb , - blood to liver removal rate " 

C l b • liver to blood removal rate " 

C bk " ^lood t 0 kidaey removal rate " 

C^b » kidney to blood removal rate " 

Cv.. " blood to urine removal rate " 

DU 

C^g - liver to gastrointestinal tract 

removal rate " 

F • fractional uptake from gastrointestinal tract to 

blood 

B,S,L,K • total lead content in blood, skeleton, liver, kidney 

(ug) 

The organ burdens are calculated la aa Iterative manner using the 

expressions 

3(t+l)-B(c) » dB/dt 

S(t+L)-S(t) * dS/dt 

etc. 

Figure 3. Harley-Kneip integrated metabolic model for determining 

lead levels in four body compartments.2 

19 
ro 

o 

Parameter 

C

bs 

C

sb 

C

bl 

C

lb 

C

bk 

C

kb 

C

bu 

c

ig 

F 

TABLE 5 

Exploration 

Blood to bone.removal 

rate, days" 

Bone to blood,removal 

rate, days" 

Blood to liver removal 

rate, days" 

Liver to blood removal 

rate, days" 

Blood to kidney re; , 

moval rate, days" 

Kidney to blood re: , 

moval rate, days" 

Blood to urine removal 

rate, days" 

Liver to gastrointestinal tract removal rate, days" 

Fractional uptake from 

gastrointestional 

tract to blood 

. PARAMETER VALUES 

0-0.99 

0.300 

2.65 x IO"4 

0.0301 

0.0130 

0.0100 

0.0301 

0.0334 

3 

0.4 

1-1.99 

0.300 

2.65 x 10"4 

0.0301 

0.0130 

0.0100 

0.0301 

0.0334 

3 

0.4 

FOR THE BIOKINETICS PROGRAM 

2-2.99 

0.134 

2.65 x IO"4 

0.0301 

0.0130 

0.0100 

0.0301 

0.0334 • 

5 

0.3 

Age, years 

3-3.99 

0.134 

2.65 x IO"4 

0.0301 

0.0130 

0.0100 

0.0301 

0.0334 

5 

0.3 

4-4.99 

0.134 

2.65 x IO"4 

0.0301 

0.0130 

0.0100 

0.0301 

0.0334 

5 

0.3 

5-5.99 

0.f34 

2.65.x IO"4 

0.0301 

0.0130 

0.0100 

0.0301 

0.0301 

10 

0.3 

6-6.99 

0.134 

2.65 x IO"4 

0.0301 

0.0130 

0.0100 

0.0301 

0.0301 

10 

0.3 
P.27 

SECTION 5 

USER PROMPTING AND OUTPUT FORMAT 

OF THE BIOKINETICS PROGRAM 

Appendix C contains a listing of the Biokinetics Program. Figure 4 lists 

the series of prompting statements by which the program elicits instructions, 

parameter values, and labeling information from the user. 

The user first enters the name of the study area or principal point source 

as a means of labeling the area to which the program estimates apply. Next 

the user enters the name of the control scenario to which the estimates apply. 

Responses to the two prompts are used solely to label output tables. 

The program next requests the calendar year which will be the last year of 

the 7-year exposure period. The user should enter the same year previously 

specified for the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program run which created the input 

data file for the Biokinetics Program. The user then enters the name of this 

file and indicates which estimates (lower or upper bound) the file contains. 

The last prompting statement asks if the user wants the geometric mean of the 

12 end-of-month blood lead values calculated for each cohort's sixth year of 

exposure. 

Appendix C contains printouts for "lower bound" and "upper bound" runs 

of the program for the study area previously discussed in Section 3. Each 

printout consists of a separate table for each census tract in the study area 

and four tables which present results averaged across all census tracts. 

Values tabulated in the census tract tables are end-of-the-month blood lead 

concentrations from birth through the last year of the exposure period. The 

format is similar to that of the Multiyear Lead Uptake Program in that estimates are arranged according to the cohort's age in the last year. 

The last two pages of each printout contain the four summary tables. These 

tables pertain only to those cohorts whose seventh year of life is the last year 

the 7-year exposure period. (If the last year of the exposure period year is 

1980, for example, these would be those children born at the beginning of 

1974.) Summary Table 1 presents month-by-month geometric means of the end-ofthe-month blood lead concentrations of all cohorts born on January 1 of the 

21 
P.28 

--

BIOKINETICS 

Version 2.0 

Calculates end-of-month blood lead 

Concentrations for chidren aae 0-6 years 

01-06-1986 

Strategies and Air Standards Division 

SPECIFICATIONS FOR THIS ANALYSIS: 

Enter name of study area or principal point source (in CAPS): 

Enter name o-f control scenario to be analyzed (in -CAPS) :. 

Enter last year of child exposure (4 diqits): 

PROGRAM ONLY FOR 1980-1997 

What type of uptake estimates — upper(1) or lower(0) bounds? 

Do you want the geometric mean blood concentration for each census 

tract during the next to last year of exposure(Y/N)? 

Inputs complete. Press (Shi-ft-PrtSc) to print specifications. 

Then press 'ENTER' to continue: 

Pause to initialize arrays of data in program... 

Begin calculations for each cohort within census tracts; 

Figure 4. User-prompting statements of the 

Biokinetics Program. 

22 
P.29 

first year listed in the left-hand column. These values are calculated as 

follows. Let x. -k be the end-of-the-month blood lead concentration for cohort 

i in the year j and month k. Then y.. , the blood lead concentration listed in 

Summary Table 1 for month k of calendar year j, is calculated by the expression 

y j k = exp[z(p.)(ln x.^J/zp ^ (12) 

where p. is the number of children in cohort i and the summations include all 

cohorts in the study area which meet the stipulation stated above. Note that 

y.. is a population-weighted geometric mean. 

Summary Table 2 presents population-weighted geometric means of annual 

average blood lead levels for the same cohorts considered in Summary Table 1. 

The geometric mean for year j, y., is calculated as 

J 

y. = exp[z(p.)(ln m...)/zp. ] (13) 

where m.. is the arithmetic mean of the 12 end-of-the-month blood lead concentration values for cohort i in year j, p. is the number of children in 

cohort i, and the summations include all cohorts meeting the previously stated 

stipulation. 

The seven values listed in the right-hand column of Summary Table 3 are 

calculated as follows. Let h.. be the highest end-of-the-month blood lead 

• J 

concentration for cohort i in year j. Then y., the blood lead concentration 

listed in the right-hand column of Summary Table 3 for calendar year j is 

calculated by the expression 

y. = exp[z(Pi)(ln h^O/zp. ] (14) 

where p. is the number of children in cohort i and the summations include all 

cohorts in the study area which meet the stipulation stated above. Thus y. 

J 

is a population-weighted geometric mean of the highest end-of-month blood 

lead concentration. 

In developing Summary Table 4, the program first calculates a., the arithmetic mean of the x.. values for the first four years of a cohort's life, and 

b., the arithmetic mean of the xi . values for the next three years of a cohort's 

23 
life. The first value listed in the right-hand column of Summary Table 4 is 

calculated as 

wa = exp[z(pi)(ln a^/zp ^ ; (15) 

the second is calculated as 

wb = exp[z(p.)(ln b^/zp ^ . (16) 

The summations include all cohorts in the study area which meet the stated 

stipulation. The quantities w and w. are both popul ation-.weighted geometric 

means. 

24 
P.31 

SECTION 6 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSES 

Multiple runs of the Multiyear Lead Uptake and Biokinetics program were 

made to assess the effects on blood lead estimates of varying the values 

assigned to selected input parameters. All runs used the same study area, a 

set of census tracts surrounding a secondary smelter located in a relatively 

densely populated area of a U.S. city. The parameters listed in Table 6 were 

selected for the sensitivity analyses because of their apparently large influence on blood lead estimates relative to that of other parameters. Listed 

in Table 6 is the initial value used for each parameter, an alternate value 

substituted for the initial value, and the scenario being analyzed. 

TABLE 6. INITIAL AND ALTERNATE 

Parameter(s) 

DIRTCONS 

INMISC 

DUSTIN 

DIRTST 

DUSTIN + 

DIRTST 

DUSTIN + 

DIRTST 

Initial 

value 

0.1 g/day 

Year-specific 

estimates (see 

Table 3) 

Lower bound 

estimates3 

Lower bound 

estimates3 

Lower bound 

estimates3 

Upper bound 

estimates3 

PARAMETER VALUES 

Alternate 

value 

0.2 g/day 

See text 

Upper bound 

estimates3 

Upper bound 

estimates3 

Upper bound 

estimates3 

Lower bound 

estimates3 

USED IN SENSITIVITY ANALYSES 

Scenario analyzed 

Baseline exposure 

Lower and upper bound runs 

Precontrol exposure and 

post-control exposure (1.0 

yg/m3 standard) 

Lower and upper bound runs 

Baseline exposure 

Lower bound run 

Baseline exposure 

Lower bound run 

Baseline exposure 

Lower bound run 

Baseline exposure 

Upper bound run 

Lower and upper bound estimates used are values presented in Table 4 for 

"near point source." 

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OJ 

<<U * l 

ID 

Ul 

s BJ 

Ul 

• 

-
P.33 

In general, the air quality (SOURCEAQ) throughout each census tract is 

assumed to equal the air quality at the geographic center of the census 

tract. In some cases, the geographic center may be a significant distance 

from the population center of a census tract. Air quality at the two points 

could be significantly different, with the air quality at the population 

center being considered the more accurate indicator of exposure for the 

children residing in the census tract. To determine the magnitude of the 

discrepancy, alternative SOURCEAQ input files were developed using the ISC 

dispersion model and two radial grids. 

A series of runs were made to assess the effect of receptor point location on blood lead estimates. In one run, the SOURCEAQ for each census tract 

was determined using the geographic centroid of the census tract as the 

receptor point for the ISC model. In another run, geographic centroids were 

used for all but the two census tracts closest to the smelter. A radial grid 

receptor point 1000 m from the smelter was used for the census tract nearest 

the smelter; a receptor point 2000 m from the smelter was used for the 

other census tract. These receptor points approximated the locations of the 

population centroids of the two census tracts. In a third run, radial grid 

receptor points 500 m from the smelter were used for both census tracts. 

These locations were assumed to represent residential areas experiencing air 

lead levels near the maximum levels expected in the two census tracts. 

Results of the different sensitivity analyses are given in Table 7. To 

illustrate the effects of the various adjustments, blood lead levels predicted by the model using parameter values given in Tables 2, 3, and 4 are 

also shown for different scenarios. As noted previously, all of the sensitivity analyses used the same U.S. secondary lead smelter. The results presented in Table 7 for runs without any adjustments apply to the same smelter. 

Based on the results of the sensitivity analyses, the following conclusions can be drawn. 

1. Doubling the estimate for the average daily dirt ingestion rate 

from 0.1 to 0.2 g/day significantly increased the blood lead estimates. The marked sensitivity of the model to this parameter, 

which is based on a limited amount of data in relation to the other 

parameters, should be highlighted. Furthermore, none of the 

analyses completed to date were intended to model children with 

pica. Although no precise estimates are available, the amount of 

dirt ingested by children with a high degree of pica is significantly 

27 
TABLE 7. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSES 

ro 

oo 

Air lead scenario 

Basel 

Baseli 

Basel 

Baseli 

Baseli 

Basel! 

Basel 

Baseli 

Basel 

Baseli 

Basel 

Basel! 

ne-lower bound 

ne-upper bound 

ne-lower bound 

ne-upper bound 

ne-lower bound 

ne-lower bound 

ne-lower bound 

ne-upper bound 

ne-lower bound 

ne-upper bound 

ne-lower bound 

ne-upper bound 

Precontrol-lower bound 

Precontrol-upper bound 

Precontrol-lower bound 

Precontrol-upper bound 

Post-control (1.0 

yg/m3) - lower bound 

Post-control (1.0 

pg/m3) - upper bound 

Post-control (1.0 

pg/m3) - lower bound 

Post-control (1.0 

uo/m3) - upper bound 

Parameter(s) tested (value) 

No adjustments 

No adjustments 

DUSTCONS (0.2 g/day) 

DUSTCONS (0.2 g/day) 

DUSTIN (upper bound estimates) 

DIRTST (upper bound estimates) 

DUSTIN + DIRTST (upper bounds) 

DUSTIN + DIRTST (lower bounds) 

Radial grid air quality values substituted for 

geographic centroid values at 1000 or 2000 

meters only 

Radial grid air quality values substituted for 

geographic centroid values at 500 meters only 

No adjustments 

No adjustments 

INMISC (canned food lead constant post-1983) 

INMISC (canned food lead constant post-1983) 

No adjustments 

No adjustments 

INMISC (canned food lead constant post-1983) 

INMISC (canned food lead constant post-1983) 

Blood lead levels3 

0-3 years 

19.4 

27.0 

31.6 

44.4 

23.3 

20.4 

24.3 

21.4 

19."3 

26.9 

19.5 

27.1 

5.2 

9.9 

5.3 

10.0 

1.4 

3.5 

2.0 

4.4 

4-6 years 

14.3 

21.2 

23.6 

35.5 

17.4 

15.5 

18.6 

15.9 

14.3 

21.1 

14.4 

21.3 

2.4 

5.9 

2.6 

6.3 

1.1 

3.4 

1.6 

4.2 

36th month 

19.2 

27.1 

31.9 

45.4 

23.1 

20.6 

24.5 

21.3 

19.1 

27.0 

19.2 

27.2 

4.4 

9.7 

4.5 

9.8 

1.3 

3.6 

1 

4.6 

Blood lead levels presented represent average levels of the 7-year cohorts born to the beginning of the 

time period analyzed (1974-1980, 1983-1989, or 1990-1996), at different periods in their life. These 

levels are used in the risk assessment as indicators of exposure for estimating the risks associated with 

alternative lead NAAQS of various health effects. 

3Blood lead results shown are averages across all census tracts surrounding point source. In contrast to 

area averages, blood lead levels in individual census tracts that were reanalyzed indicate significant 

differences from baseline run (see text). 
-p» co ro 

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3 a 1 ID • w -s w 

W c* 
P.36 

REFERENCES 

1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Review of the National Ambient 

Air Quality Standards for Lead: Assessment of Scientific and Technical 

Information. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, draft staff 

paper. April 1985. 

2. Harley, N. H., and T. H. Kneip. An Integrated Metabolic Model for Lead 

in Humans of All Ages. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract 

No. B44899 with New York University School of Medicine, Department of 

Environmental Medicine. January 30, 1985. 

3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Air Quality Criteria for Lead. 

Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. August 1984. 

4. Chan, T. L., and M. Lippman. Experimental Measurements and Empirical 

Modeling of the Regional Deposition of Inhaled Particles in Humans. 

Am. Ind. Hyg. Assoc. J., 41:399-408, 1980. 

5. Davidson, C. I., and J. F. Osborn. The Sizes of Airborne Trace Metal 

Containing Particles. In: Toxic Metals in the Air. J. 0. Nriagu and 

C. I. Davidson eds. New York, New York, 1984. 

6. Phalen, R. F., M. J. Oldham, C. B. Beaucage, and T. T. Crocker. Postnatal 

Enlargement of Human Tracheobronchial Airways and Implications for 

Particle Deposition. Anatomical Record. Vol. 212, 1985. 

7. Ferdo, A. M. Ventilation Rates for Testing Lead NEM. Memorandum from 

PEI Associates, Inc., to Mr. Jeff Cohen, U.S. Environmental Protection 

Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. April 1985. 

8. International Committee on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Report of 

the Task Group on Reference Man: Report No. 23. Pregamon Press, New 

York, 1975. 

9. Nutrition Foundation, Inc. Assessment of the Safety of Lead and Lead 

Salts in Food: A Report of the Nutrition Foundation's Expert Advisory 

Committee, Washington, D.C. The Nutrition Center. 1982. 

10. Pope, A. A. Development of Activity Patterns for Population Exposure to 

Ozone. Memorandum from PEI Associates, Inc., to Mr. Tom McCrudy, U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. 

June 1985. 

30 
P.37 

11. Paul, R. A. Demographic Data for Lead Exposure Analysis. Report from 

PEI Associates, Inc., to Mr. Richard Atherton, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. January 1986. 

12. Harley, N. H., and T. H. Kneip. A Metabolic Model to Calculate Blood 

Lead and Concentrations in Selected Organs by Month for Children Ages 1 

to 6. A Report from New York University School of Medicine, Department 

of Environmental Medicine to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 

Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. August 1985. 

31 
P.38 

APPENDIX A 

ESTIMATES FOR SELECTED PARAMETER VALUES 

Values for parameters of the lead uptake model given in Tables 2 and 3 

of the main text that are not derived directly from the lead staff paper are 

discussed in this appendix. 

1. ABSDIET represents the average fraction of ingested dietary lead 

that is absorbed through the gastrointestinal tract into the bloodstream. 

2 3 

Lead balance studies in infants (Alexander and Ziegler ) report GI uptake 

factors in the range of 42 to 53 percent based on measurements of lead in the 

4-6 diet and excreta. Several studies have found that adults absorb a much 

smaller fraction of ingested dietary lead with measurements ranging between 

7 to 20 percent. For the present model, a range of 42'to 53 percent is used 

for infants up to their third year of life, 18 to 24 percent for children 

upon reaching their 7th year of life, and proportional, incremental values 

in intermediate ages. 

2. Table 3 describes past and future trends in average daily dietary 

lead intake (INDIET) for 1974-1997. Year-specific estimates by Battye7 of the 

mobile source contribution to ambient lead concentration in urban areas, 

3 

VEHIC yg/m , are used to estimate INADIET, the average daily lead intake 

related to atmospheric lead deposition on food surfaces before and during 

processing. Past trends in lead solder usage in canned foods, anticipated 

future reductions in lead solder usage, and the anticipated impact of the 

o 

expected revision of the lead drinking water standard were used to make yearspecific estimates of the contribution of these sources to average daily 

dietary lead intake. The contributions of soil lead and undetermined sources 

of lead remain constant in estimating average daily dietary lead intake between 1974-1997. The contribution of components of dietary lead intake, with 

the exception of the INADIET component, are combined to yield year-specific 

estimates of INMISC. 

32 
P.39 

3. ABSLUNG represents the fraction of inhaled lead that is deposited 

into and subsequently absorbed through the lungs"into the bloodstream. In 

the staff paper, data on particle size distributions of airborne lead mass, 

collected from various urban, rural, and industrial areas, are combined with 

particle respiratory deposition and absorption data to calculate the absorption rate of inhaled lead particles for a 2-year old child living in generalized 

urban/rural areas (15 to 30%) as well as near stationary lead sources (35 to 

9 10 

60%). Data were obtained from Landrigan et al., Dorn et al., Chan and 

11 12 13 

Lippmann, Davidson and Osborn, and Phalen et al. 

Age-related differences in deposition efficiencies estimated by Phalen 

et al. are not large for the relatively small particle diameters that predominate in generalized urban/rural areas. Therefore, the range estimated 

for a 2-year old is applied to all ages of young children (0 to 7 years) 

living in those areas. Near point-sources, there is generally a greater 

fraction of coarse-mode particles (>2.5 um) in the ambient air. Consequently, 

the fraction of particle mass that deposit in the lungs of young children and 

are absorbed is estimated to be larger than that of adults. Particle deposition efficiencies for 5 ym particles were derived from Phalen et al. as a 

function of age and ventilatory state (e.g., low activity, light exertion) to 

calculate average daily deposition rates by age: 

SA 

0 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

% deposition 

at low activity 

80 

75 

70 

65 

60 

60 

55 

% deposition 

at light exertion 

65 

60 

55 

50 

45 

45 

40 

Average daily 

deposition rate 

75 

70 

65 

60 

55 

55 

50 

18 35 35 35 

Average respiratory deposition/absorption rates for different ages living 

near lead point sources were calculated using the equation 

[(CRD5 - ARD5) x PbPS1 Q] + ARDPS 

33 
P.40 

where CRDj- is the average daily deposition rate of 5 ym particles for a child 

13 between 0 and 6 years (50 to 75%, from Phalen et'al. ); ARDc is the average 

daily deposition rate of 5 ym particles for an 18-year old (35% from Phalen 

et al.); PbPS, Q is the average percentage of lead particle mass collected 

near point sources that is comprised of particles that are larger than 1.0 

9 10 

ym in diameter (50 to 70%, from Landrigan et al. and Do m et al. ); and 

ARDPS is the estimated respiratory deposition rate for adults living near lead 

point sources (20 to 40%, estimated in the lead staff paper ). 

The calculated ranges were rounded off to yield the rates listed in 

Table 2. It should be noted that deposition efficiencies for 5 ym particles 

were combined with data on the percentage of lead particles larger than 1 ym 

around point sources to calculate point source area respiratory deposition 

rates. The available data related to particle size in the published literature 

do not permit a more direct comparison and calculation. 

4. HOUT represents the amount of time spent outdoors. Among young 

children, this value varies depending on their stage of development (i.e., 

infant, toddler, preschool), season, geographical location, and family 

behavior. The values for a 2-year old child in Table 2 were obtained from the 

1 14 

lead staff paper. Estimates for other ages were developed by Pope, who 

analyzed the time spent by children indoors, outdoors, and in motor vehicles, 

with respect to season and day of week. 

5. VRESP, the volume of air respired each day, is dependent on age, body 

size, lung capacity, altitude, and activity of the child. The lead staff 

1 3 

paper estimates a range of 4 to 5 m day for 2- and 3-year old children 

based on various sources (ICRP, Nutrition Foundation, Phalen et al. ). 

Phalen et al. determined average ventilation rates for males and females, at 

different activity levels, from birth through age 18 from graphical fits.of 

17 18 published tabulated data (Altman and Ditmer ' ). The calculations for low 

activity levels were used to construct the ranges of daily ventilation rates 

in Table 2 for children 0 to 6 years. 

34 
P.41 

REFERENCES 

1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Review of the National Ambient 

Air Quality Standards for Lead: Assessment of Scientific and Technical 

Information. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, draft staff 

paper. April 1985. 

2. Alexander, F. W., H. T. Delves, and B. E. Clayton. The Uptake and 

Excretion by Children of Lead and Other Contaminants. In: Environmental 

Health Aspects of Lead Proceedings, International Symposium. D. Barth, 

A. Berlin, R. Engel, P. Recht, and J. Smeets, eds. Amsterdam, The 

Netherlands. Commission of the European Communities Center for Information and Documentation. Luxemborg. October 1972. 

3. Ziegler, E. E., B. B. Edwards, R. L. Jensen, R. R. Mahaffey, and S. J. 

Fomon. Absorption and Retention of Lead by Infants. Pediatric Research, 

12:29-34, 1978. 

4. Kehoe, R. A. The Metabolism of Lead in Man in Health and Disease: The 

Normal Metabolism of Lead. J. R. Inst. Public Health Hyg., 24:81-97, 

1961. 

5. Rabinowitz, M., G. W. Wetherill, and J. D. Kopple. Lead Metabolism in 

the Normal Human: Stable Isotope Studies. Science, 1982:725-727, 1973. 

6. Rabinowitz, M. B., J. D. Kopple, and G. W. Wetherill. Effect of Food 

Intake and Fasting on Gastrointestinal Lead Absorption in Humans. Am. 

J. Clin. Nutr., 33:1784-1788, 1980. 

7. Battye, W. Predicted Mobile Source Lead Impact for 1990 and 1995. 

Technical Memorandum from GCA Corporation, Technical Division to Mr. John 

Haines and Mr. Jeff Cohen, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research 

Triangle Park, North Carolina. April 1985. 

8. Personal communication between Mr. Jeff Cohen, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, and Mr. W. 

Coniglio, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Drinking 

Water. Washington, D.C. November 14, 1985. 

9. Landrigan, P. J., S. H. Geklbach, B. F. Rosenblum, J. M. Shoults, R. M. 

Candelaria, W. F. Barthel, J. A. Liddle, A. L. Smrek, N. W. Staelhing, and 

J. F. Sanders. Epidemic Lead Absorption Near and Ore Smelter: The Role 

of Particulate Lead. N. Engl. J. Med., 292:123-129, 1975. 

35 
P.42 

10. Dorn, C. R., J. 0. Pierce, P. E. Phillips, and G. R. Chase. Airborne 

Pb, Cd, Cu Concentration by Particle Size Hear a Pb Smelter. Atmos. 

Environ., 10:443-446, 1976. 

11. Chan, T. L., and M. Lippman. Experimental Measurements and Empirical 

Modeling of the Regional Deposition of Inhaled Particles in Humans. 

Am. Ind. Hyg. Assoc. J., 41:399-408, 1980. 

12. Davidson, C. I., and J. F. Osborn. The Sizes of Airborne Trace Metal 

Containing Particles. In: Toxic Metals in the Air. J. 0. Nriagu and 

C. I. Davidson eds. New York, New York, 1984. 

13. Phalen, R. F., M. J. Oldham, C. B. Beaucage, and T. T. Crocker. Postnatal 

Enlargement of Human Tracheobronchial Airways and Implications for 

Particle Deposition. Anatomical Record. Vol. 212, 1985. 

14. Pope, A. A. Development of Activity Patterns for Population Exposure to 

Ozone. Memorandum from PEI Associates, Inc., to Mr. Tom McCurdy, U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. 

June 1985. 

15. International Committee on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Report of 

the Task Group on Reference Man: Report No. 23. Pregamon Press, New 

York, 1975. 

16. Nutrition Foundation, Inc. Assessment of the Safety of Lead and Lead 

Salts in Food: A Report of the Nutrition Foundation's Expert Advisory 

Committee, Washington, D.C. The Nutrition Center. 1982. 

17. Altman, P. L., and D. S. Dittmer, eds. Respiration and Circulation. 

Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology. Bethesda, 

Maryland. 1971. 

18. Altman, P. L., and D. S. Dittmer, Eds. Biology Data Book, 2nd Edition, 

Volume 1. Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology. 

Bethesda, Maryland. 1972. 

36 
P.43 

APPENDIX B 

MULTIYEAR LEAD UPTAKE PROGRAM 

AND SAMPLE OUTPUTS 

37 
P.44 

30 REM Arravs accomodate aae groups 0 6, years o-f- aqe 0-6. suDarouMS i.-6 

40 REM calendar years 1974-97(0-23) , upper & lower bounds(0-1) . and 

50 REivi unaffected or affected (0-1 ) by point source of lead.. 

60 DIM PFRACT(6)„ IORAT10(6,1,1), HOUT(6,1) 

70 D I !1 VRESP (6,1) , ABSLUNG ( 6 ., 1 , 1) 

GO DI rl ABSDI ET (6.1), 'I ND I ET (6) , I NM I SC (23) 

90 DIM DUST 1 ( 1 1 , 1 „ 1 ) „ DUST2 (1 1 , 1 , 1 ) ,, 1 NAD I ET (23) 

100 DIM AIR (11). OUTAQ (6, 12) , INAIR (6)., BKGD (23), CRALT(6) 

1. 1 0 D1 M D J! RTO ONS (6 „ 1 ) , ABSD I RT (6 „ 1 ) , I ND I RT (6) 

i 20 DIM GRP* (6 5 „ PREG(6) „ POP(6) , MONTH*(12), MULT(6) 

J. 3 0 T C D A ¥ * = DA' I" E *:: L. f'• * -» 0 I-f R * ( 10 ) s C L. S : L P R I N T 0 H R * (12 ) 

!. ""i-1-..-

1 i''K J. I'M 1 i i-'iu' 'v 1 .<--} "• ' ""' **" """' ~ 

150 PRINT TAB(12) "I 

160 PRINT TAD(12) "! 

i 7 0 P Ib IN T T A B ( 1 2 ) "I 0 0 I-l 0 R "I" M U L TI - V E A R L E A D (J P T A K E P R u G R AI -1 

190 PRINT TAB(12) "I Calculates daily uptake by month over lifetime 

:t.ed chi 1 dren aqe year 

PRINT TAB(12) 

b50 PRINT TAB 

260 RRINT TAB 

" TAB(34) TODAY* TAB(70) "I" 

B t.;'" ac e a i e s a r i d A i r S t a n d a r cl s L) i v x s i c- n 

•i •- ? 'i •i--

y0 PRIM J LF.f;LF"*: "SPECIFICATIONS FOR THIS ANALYSIS: " 

^80-PRINT "Enter name of study area or principal point source (in CAPS) 

INPUT SRC*' 

:b?0 PRINT "Enter name of control scenario to be analyzed (in CAPES): ": 

.00 IMFbb! "Lower (0) or upper'( 1 ) bound estimate? ", END 

9.0 PRINT "Press (Shi f t-PrtSc) to print these specifications." 

..., i... •: J : -n.:.!•! . i....! •••(• ,\ c r t u .1 r i. L n I 11J110 L-Olw 1 .I.!'JUCU : 

PRiNTs PRINT "Which at the following population croups should nc:: urie d 

Pft IN T "ap".a 1 ys i s ? I• ;-: mor e tha n on e . qrou p pop u 1 at. i ans w i 11 b e a«jded , 

FRIN T "(Note; ; L.Pi-i == lead-painte d house s SUEZ - secDndar y cccupation a 

cm. .1. d; ;' H bun s a u ri d , w i t h S 0 E (" 

r MF-; rr Children in LPH\sound» ws but \ Y/ N)? "„ GRP*(3) 

INr:'UT " Children in LPHNsound, no SOE (Y/N)? ", GRP* (4) 

IMP:.;]" " Ch.;. Idren in non-LPH.. with SOE (Y/N)? ". GRP* (5) 

INPU"T '' Ci-•; i 1 cir e n i n no n LPi-i „ n o SO E (Y/N ) ? " , GEP * (6) 

i.'NPi.JT "Shoul d chil d group s b e -furthe r subdivide d -fa r thi s analysis ! 

'4,J U KKi N i 

460 INPUT" 

470 INPUT 

cie 

i yij .Ll'MPU I " 

•00 INPUT" " 

:•., 0 INPU'b " 

.. .:.•....• r is .i. I-.I i i....r- -v-1 •;.... I" -v .; 

•'•AQ INPUT "The n pr e 

:;,:-;.-.. ! pr : ; T l,j ••;•• p j . |;;;. ;.•:; { •> '". >, 

:

-. .•• " y " AN!J PUP* 

bnte r fractio n o 

A o e 2 '.•:'. . V 9 

Aqe 3 3.99 

Aae 4 - 4,99 

:hiIdren in each subgroup, bv aae: " 

' , PF'RACT ( 1 5 

1

 , PFRACT(2 ) 

? ? : " . PFRACT(3 ) 

7 '•/' i! , t'"' i"' i"\ hi \... ; '. O / 

(Sh i f t• •• PrtSc) tci pr i n t these sPec i f i cat i on s . 

ENTER' to continue: "„ C* 

,' l\! \ 

) . PRIN T Ll": 

•f „ L.I' ' -P ,: 11- 1 CAT ; UN'S CUN I 1 Nu,Eu i 
P.45 

560 

'• 1 0 

C J -.i.'1 -:..-' 

660 

fi:> / O 

vii 

'/-TO 

/ V O 

;3 0 0 

:"-; .:_-.'• r , 

'-•• '••!• >..) 

' / •-.'::? '--J 

-y ! •' ( : 

1 OFip 

1 0 -1 ( 

t O 0! 

.: .i.

 ; T '• 

: r-. i. i'ii ,; i. .--H-•••..) i i;..n i..t.;r ! u.uii e '.; i xupu'. . v. r-ir r avs > i j. i e J. • i i/o o i «... r mc*'_i . , r J. i_ c. •-•-!• 

PRINT"

 :',. INPUT "Enter name of input (AQ) file in DOS -format;; " < FILE* 

I N F'i.J T '' E n t e r n a m e o -i- a u t n u t f i 1 e :i. n D 0 S t o r rn a t ; " „ FI L E 2 * 

PRINT. LP*; L.F'*M INPUT "Enter ' ast year of exposure (4 digits);: ", YEAR 

IF YlF.AEb 19930 OR YEAR> 1997 THEN PRINT 

"PROGRAM ONLY FOR YEARS OF EXPOSURE ENDING IN 1980-1997"s GOTO cOO 

INPUT "Do you want to substitute a set of rural background values (Y/N) "; 

IF RURAL..* = "N" OR RURAL*- "n" THEN GOTO 680 

F-GR V = 0 TO 6 

YY -•= YEAR ••- 6 + Ys Y2 ~ YY 1974 

PRINT " Year " ; YYs : INPUT RURALBs BKGD(Y2) •••--- RURALB 

NEXT Y 

PRINT "Should background values be used to indicate critical values" 

INF97 " above which point source impact is assumed (Y/N) "; CV* 

IF 1.9/2? - "•/" UR UV*~- "Y" N-IEN GU N-J /LM' 

PRINT "Gin ter" alternate AQ critical value (uq/cu.m,) above which " •: 

PRIN"'" " poi nt source impact shouI d ba assuiv\ed ; " 

YY =-•• YiFAR •- 6 -i- Y 

PRINT " Year "; YY:: INPUT CRALT(Y) 

NEXT Y 

INPUT "Enter additive background -factor (other than vehicles) to adjust AO: 

A ).} Im'i 

PRINT "Enter multiplicative -factors to adjust AG! bv year; " 

FG|"; y :=• o "f'G 6 

Y'Y ~ b£AF: -- 6 + y 

PRINT " Year " ; YY;: INPUT NULT(Y) 

NEXT Y 

o f.:;: ]; jX| -j- • • p r s s s (S h i f t -• F' r t S c ) t o p r i n t t h e s e specif ica t i o n s - " 

1N P U T '' T hen p-r ess ' E N T E R 'to continue: " , C * 

OPEN FIL.E3* FOR INPUT AS #3 

R EN -K-S-S- Names of months: •»** 

FUR MTH = 1 10 12 

READ i-'IONTH* (NTH) 

N E b I" :<| 1 I-i 

O A :'A ".iAibiJARY" , "FEBRUARY " .. "MARCH " „ "APRIL." „ "NAY " „ "JUNE " „ '' JUM ' , AcCU S I ' ,9 :b 

:. P ' • ,,

 ;' 0 ib 1 0 E E R " , " N 0 V E! lv! B E R " ., " D E 0 E M B E R'' 

iNPLN" #3.. ARRAY * % PRINT L.F* . LP * :, ARRAY * , LF * 

F'OR PD -~ 0 TO Is INPUT" #3 „ HOUT ( Y „ BD ) s PRINT" HOUT" ( Y „ DD) ;; : Fhb./,' 9 J 

RIFN .:•** Indoor/oi it door ratios to convert to indoor AG9 *<-x 

I NPUT" #3 . ARRAY*: PR I NT LF * ,. L.F* , ARRAY * „ LF * 

F OR BD =» 0 TO 1 

IN P u"!" # 3 . 10 lb A "1" 10 (Y .. P 3 „ B D ) : P P, IN "1" I0 R A "i" 10 (Y . P S „ B D) s 

NEXT BD 

Nfc A I |-'w 

'> REN s-s-s- AQ levels -from motor vehicles added to background *** 

> INPUT #3., ARRAY*; PRINT LF* , LF* . ARRAY* . LF* 

:, Fi.:R CY == 1.974 TG 1997 

: i. N f •' LJ i ri'- -.i , V Li iH I Li: V v. "- C Y - 1 9 7 4 

) I F ftLJR AL* - '' N'' 0ft RU R AL* ~

 ;' n '' Ti-lEN BKG D (Y 2 ) = VEi-l I C •+• AD D 

> IF RURAL*^"Y" OR RURAL*-" v" THEN BKGD(Y2) = BKGD(Y2) -i- ADD 

s PRINT Bi-:b3DiY2) :; 

' i i'-Ji-'L/1 #3 , A ft i ••; A Y * :; i-'KlNi L F * ., Li - * ., AK R A Y-i" , Ll- * 

TM " ~ • - — - —"' " •"•- -•-.-•--.,-., cr,, . r-,,-,-„-r ..r^-.,- , v.-, , . . ,:, •- .-.,, 
•! I ,'".•- • 

.1. '. V \ ' 

J. .,:'.. / '••..'• 

1310 

1 320 

i. •.:.••':.>'• J 

1340 

.' 380 

i •••;• J.

 !.J 

i. s T-0 

il 4 S O 

li. •-> / U 

i-i-90 

'• •".. '• •''• J 

I;:!; 

1 6 J. 0 

1.6.20 

•; A ";i. i 1 

.1.6.:.'....' 

;. S i. bi 

TM 

20 93 

i- • - i | 

r '..j i \ L.-...•• •• '-..* • \..i .i. >; 1 1 -ii

 I..J i •:<••_• H vr \ £:... j."" \ v » Di. ^ .. r r\.i.i-i ; Vi',u-;ji' v \ .. ;^ u <' .; 

NEXT Y, 

I NPUT 19:9, ARRAY* 2 PR I NT LF'* , LF* , ARRAY* „ L.F* 

F'OR BD -

::': 0 TO 1 

INPUT #3„ ADSLuNEi ('Y..PS., BD) : PRINT ABSLUNG (Y . Pb , BD/ 

REM *•;;* pb intake -from undetermined sources #** 

INPUT" #3. ARRAY*; PRINT LF* , L.F* , ARRAY* , LF* 

FOR CY = 0 TO 23 

INPUT #3, INNISC(CY)s PRINT INMISC(CY); 

NEXT CY 

REii -fi-ii-ft- F'b dietary intake related to air *;>•# 

". :-.;p—.. i'i' ...|. •:•• •-. i--.r-: .-•. •. .-.p-- _ r.r . y hi- r | /—.-!•• i (-'.-:- .-\ t-. I—. .'». \ / ,p- 1 r~.-i-

.1. r-ii" ....: 1 •;+•.:.-• . H!-..r\:-p v -?•: \~ K .1. N ; L r ••!••- , L. r .;F- , hi-',r\p-i T -P- . L.r -v 

IN P U T" •!* 3 ,. IN A DI E "i" (C Y ) . P RI N "1" IN AD I E T (C Y ) ; 

RET1 **:=;• Absorptio n in qu t o-f lea d -from die t *-*•*• 

INPUT #3. ARRAY*; PRINT" LF* ,. LF*, ARRAY* , LF* 

FOR BD -- 0 TO 1 

I ib P U T" tt 3 „ A B S DI E "1" ( Y . B D ) :: P RI N "1" A B bi D1E'!" (Y „ B D J r, 

K S T « L Q..iazt:i.tv o f d M 9 cor,s:..:mod *** 

IF i P U ',' il- 3 , A ft RAY* : P R I IM T L. F * , L. F * , A R R A V * . L. 1TM * 

I-UK BD •"- O l U 1 

I NPUT #3 , DIRTCGNS (Y , BD) : PR 1 NT D IRTCONS (Y , BD) ;: 

N E X 1 B D 

NEXT Y 

R E: 1 "'1 * * •* A ;::• s o r p t i o n i n q u t o f P b f r o m cl i r t « •«• * 

INPUT #3. ARRAY*; PRINT LF*„LF*,ARRAY*.LF* 

FUR v •-: ij I'D 6 

ITI:::. A i JZ 3 

;'-••!::::..::-. i Y 

INPU T #3., ARRAY* ; PRIN T L.F* 9...F* „ ARRAY * , LP * 

IN P U T # 3 . A I ft (P B) ; P R IN T A IR (f:' B) :: 

NEXT FB 

REM »*?>• Concentration of Pb in street dust •»•#* 

INPUT" #3, ARRAY*; PRINT" L.F* .LF* „ ARRAY* . L.F* 

FOR F'S - 0 T'O 1 

|- C i-i t;i D ": U 1 U 1 

I NPUT #3 ,. DUST iL (F'B „ PS ., BD ) s PR I NT" DUST 1 (F'B , F'S „ BD) ; 

NEXT BD 

ibEXT" PB 

Fi' E" Fi * z •>'.• C a n c e n t r a t i o n a f F' b i n :i. n d o o r d u s t * a ••* 

I 9'r'l.i 1 # 3 „ AKKAY* ; |-'K'iNi L F * , L P * , AKK A Y * n L.I- * 

F O R !:::'B ••-•••• 0 T O il. il. 

F'GP PS ^ 0 TO 1 

Pi •; .1. N ; " ' 9 i !•'•! .1. N 1 " 

P.46 
P.47 

•'... • ' •'. '• ,•' 

'20 ^ 0 

2 if 1 ib 

.'•''. .' :'.'.. ':..' 

71 4-."; 

"" •! C-l;-'-. 

:::•--::::-::• : 

"2 J. O'.'> 

-. ., ,--.,-, 

•

: / i i ) 

.I:».I.;! / :-_-

: 

9790 

2 3 J. 0 

2330 

lyiOO 

2490 

-••'i-i 4 A 

2560 

:,35vc 

.:-•.. '..' '. •' •.-•' 

!'" i '-. .'•. • -i i i" ' T.;.' -...j '. t i '.... •:::•. .i. c , i„.». .1. -::\ •... .!. L.. : i 1 '.::> T .. J 1 i:.:. :::'•. L _ > < ••... ui ' 1 ] r.>'...:. u;>

 l- l' -;::(.'..„ '... ii ii t J"'. .1. 1 ••! 1 

OPEN FTI F'::i:: F'OR INPUT" AS #1 

OPEN FIL..E2* F'OR OUTPUT AS #2 

IF, E3F91 ) TFiEN GOTO 2510 ELSE GOSUB 2810: REN To ciet tract data 

IF BND - 0 THEN BD* = "LOWEib" 

IF BND •-•- !. 'THEN BD* -• "UPPER" 

! 1 i LL* ~ sKU* -i- " " i- i.„: ri/Llr 

TI..X = 3 5 - LE N (TITLE*) / 2 

F O R BX ••:••• 1 TO i'LX: TITLE * = " " + TITLE* : NEX T BX 

LPRINT CHR*il2); LPRINT" '9: LPRINT" "; LPRINT TITLE*. 

LPRINT TAB(11) BD* " BOUND ESTIMATES OF DAILY LEAD UPTAKE BY HON' 

LPRINT TAB(20) "FOR COHORTS IN CENSUS TRACT "5 TRACT* 

1... P RI N T" " "1 L P RI N T " " ; L P RIN"!"'' — = ========- == == - ^ - ~===•-'• •- - = ~==•-•'• - - - = ~-•=•• • 

:: -.::::: = =-.: := :.- -.-.-..::: =: = ::-:~ -::::~: == = =: =::~ == =: '' 

L.PRINT " Aqe Daily Lead Uptake (uq/Jav) by 

LPRINT YEAR " Pop Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 

F O R AG ~ 6 IU 0 STEP -il. 

L P ft' IN "I"'! " : L P ft IN "1" " " s L. P RI N T U S I N G'' Tt # tt ''; A G:; ;; L. P R I N r L • S IN 0 ' # • 

POP(AG); 

L.A b 1 Y -•• ii::. AG 

FOR Y ••-•• 6 TO LA STY ST'EP --1 

CY = YEAR 6 -1- Y; LPRINT" " : : LPRINT TAB (13) CY: " '9: 

II- CV* == "N" OR CV* = "n" THEN CRVAL. = CRALT(Y) 

PRINT" #2., " ";: 

PRINT #2„ USING"\ \"; TRACT*? 

P RI N T # 2 „ U S Ii IM 8'' # # # " ; A S 

PR I IM"!" # 2 , U S ING'' #tt#tt# " 3 P0 P (AG) : 

PRI N "i" # 2 , U S I IMG " ####tt " ; C Y; 

FOR NO == 1 TO 12 

IF(OUTAQ(Y,NO) > CRVAL) THEN PS = 1 ELSE PS --•= 0 

G 0 S U B 2 5 6 0: R E N «• * * D Li s t Inte r p 01 a t i 0 n s * *• •* * 

G 0 S!. i B 2 b; / 0: Fi E i¥! * * * U p tak e C a 1 c r 1.1 a t i 0 n s •& * -s * 

. i-i-- . -.- :-.(-:• • : ..-• y i. Ji - ii i.i. ,i.i. .i.i. .j.L ii ., "i":-'-,! 1 j „ 

.... r i \ .11 -i< ;.J o .11--l C J i i- i-i I-;- +1- S i .u-'L.LJ: 

NF'X •!" N O 

N t~. X"!" V 

PRINT #2., " ";: 

;MLA 1 AG 

LPRINi"Cohorts in this tabla include;" 

j ,... ,,,..,.. :j. , j _, , ,!,.,_ , T F-. !-*'•. 1 ,' y i !-iE:.hi Lrnih l L. 1 - H ••. U ! .' S i.j U 1 i u ,, (••-.•.;.' 

I." i..:ft, - i- ', ,:. ..• -. ;.Jfv.. \~,\ \ F *- I .,::. ,' — y \ V\ L~ i •\ !.... F K I i T I L r H \ Uil;..:-PJUP 1 C! ., \)C: 

IF GRP* (3) :.:= "Y" OR GRP* (3) = "y" THEN LPRINT " • LPH\sound „ witt; 

IF' GRP* (4) ^ "Y" OR GRP* (4) = "v" THEN LPRINT " LPHbsound,, nc Si 

IF GRP* (5; - "Y" OR GRP* (5) = "y" THEN LPRINT " non-- i_PH. with : 

IF GRP* (6) = "Y" OR GRP* (6) == "y" THEN LPRINT " non-LPH', no SOE 

PG •••" PG -i-l; LPRINT" TAB (61 ) : "F'aoe" s PG 

NEXT CT'RACI'bi PEh *-s*--ii- End o-f calculations -for census tract *»-s 

L.I --'fti N 1 UhK*(l2);i s l-'KIN! LP*; L.I-*;: ''Calculations comp.!. sted „ " 

TODAY*

 := DATE*: NOW* = TINE*:: LPRINT iODAY*; " " ;; NON* 

CLOSE #1 ,.#2 

i~';••.}•',') 

REM 

REM -MZ-* Dust Interpolation subroutine *•** 

AQ = OUTAQ(Y,NO); IF AQ < 1.5 THEN GOTO 2620 

DUS T'ST" :•=•• DUST 1 ( 1 0 ,. PS . DND ) + (DUST ii. (11, PS . BND ) - DUST 1 ( 10 , PS , BND ? ) 

*-• (AG - ';. .. 5; .,25 : IFIFFi 0.25 = width of last AQ interval 10 to 11. 

DUSTIN - DUST2( 10, PS, BND) ••!•• (DUS T2 ( 1 1 „ PS „ BND) -• DUST2 ( 10 , PS ,. BND) ) 

"II" 

- ":-----:------'-

Mon t f-i " 

1 0 .1. il. 

!bY9tt"ii 

* 

•::-:.:.:: . .:•...:=•.:•:..•.-.-:. : 

.'. ' "• A.. '' 

jEb ! 
P.48 

VV 1 LJ L I I Ci i' .1. l~U.v: J. i I L. c l J. 1 >_•' l_ Li 

.1. o RETURNt 

F'OR CH9 

,' l-1i-!U '-. IA-

 Q < AI R (C H l< -i-1 ) ) "I" Pi E M 2 6 4 0 

Kr. I-11- A i L/l " 

"I" i (C; •!;-:'., P S , Ir N D) -i- (D U S "I" 1 (C I-l I b ••(•• 1 „ P S , B N D) D i j S'!" .1. (C H K , F' G „ B 9 D s 

'•-) I K i UhK-i- ii. ) - A 1 K ( CliK ) / 

C I-l i ••'. -i- il. ,, P S „ B N D) D U S 'i' 2 (A: I - i i'-, , F 

* ( AQ AI R (CP;i< 5 ) / (A I ft (CI-iK'-i-1 ) •- A I R f CHK) ) 

6 0 RETURN 

.70 REM 

SO RIFN *•*« Uptake Calc. -for Calendar Year(CY) , Year of Aqe (AG) „ ib 

90 REM 

00 IV -- CY 1974; REM Convert cal., year to inde;-; ve aril 0 AQ = OUTAQ(Y,NO) 

2 0 i-i = I-l 0 U "I" ( Y „ B N D) : IQ = 10 R A T1 0 (Y ., P S , B N D ? 

3 0 WA Q ••= (IT » A Q -i- (24-H) * 10 # AQ ) / 2 4 

40 UPLUNG = VRESP(Y,BND) * WAQ * ABSLUNG(Y,PS,BND) 

5 O U P D I E T - ( 1 IM Fl 13 C ( I Y) + IN A D IE T ( I Y) ) * A B ib D I E T (Y „ B N D ) 

6 0 WDIR T - (i-i * DUST'S"!" + (12 - !-l) * DUSTIN ) / 12 

70 UPDIRT == DIRTCONS(Y.BND) * WDIRT * ABSD IRT (Y, BND) 

SO TDLU '= UPLUNG -i- UPDIET •+• UPDIRT 

90 RE TURPI 

Month(HOI 

-ii -K- -x * -s- -a- * * •:* # •*• * s- * -i»- s- * C e n s u s "1" r a c t D a t a Su b r o u t i ri e * •*;• • -K- -S # -«• # * * # «i 

r<i..'.. I i 

i'!\;::--i n tt -i i KM . 

FOR QiP •-= 1 TO 6: INPUT #1„ PftEG(GF'): NEXT" GP: REM •** Data not u; 

PRINT LF* ;: "Census tract ":: CTRACT " = "; TRACT*: " Child poos;;": 

FOR AG TM 0 TO 6 

F'OP (AG) -= 0 

.i. i -i r L.j i -It .i. , ;::• H \ •!;:::. •*• 

ME*</TRACT * THEN PRIN T LF* s "ERROR I N INPUT" FILE . STOP 

•-•'•:.':J 

.!. i" oi-l i 

GOTO 252 0 

FOR GP = 1 TO 6 

INPUT #1 „ GRPPOP 

NEXT" GP 

. [ni-

' I - •;- i 

v " TFiEN POP 

~'U!"' ( AO 

iT-#tt#" ;j I-•; »i—- i.Hb) ;; 

•'RACT 

A ! AG 

INPUT #1 , AQI Ms AQIN -- AQIN / 100 0 

KF.PI Lion ver t nanoararris/cu „ m. t o mi croqraitis/c u r. fn. o n inpu. t 

F'OR Y2 = 6 TO 0 STEP ~ 1 

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P.60 

APPENDIX C 

BIOKINETICS PROGRAM 

AND SAMPLE OUTPUTS 

54 
P.61 

i.O 9 EZ zi •* * ••* * * •'<• * * •;:• -* -s • -s- * * * * * B101 < I N E TI C S V e i'" sio n 2 * •£• *- * •%• •*• -s- * •*• «:• • * * -K- a- * * * -s- * •& - •?:• • 

2 0 REM Calculate lead or can burdens tor continuous ex D O sure ot cohor' 

• 9..'.. REP'I Program adapted i rem Dr. N„ Hariev, NYU School oi- Medicine, 12 

40 DI ii CBl.BO (84) , CBOBL (84 ; , SCALE (S4) ,. FACTOR (34) 

59 DI bi G U (6 ) „ CU... I GU T (6) 

60 D IM TB v 6 ., 34) , TC (84 ) , TBO (84 ) , TL (84) „ TK (84) , WT (84) 

70 D IM CBL.UR (84) ., WTB (34) , W TBO \ 84) , GI (84) , CL I GU (84) , W'TF AC (84) 

80 DIM UPTAKE (6 „ 12) , HIGH6(260„6), SUM:!.2M(6)„ SUHYRC6),, SIJIIHO (6 , 12) 

90 DIM CGR0UP<6) , CROP(6) , SUMHI(6) , HIGHPB(260,6), GE0M<6) 

x 0 0 .01 M 1" R A V G Q (6) . "1" R A V G 6 (6) , T R L 9 L 3 6 (6) 

1.10 TODAY* := DATE*: LF* = CHR*C10): LPRINT CHR*(12): CL3 

.1.30 PRINT TAB (12) " i 

BIOKINETICS 

Version 2.0 

1 40 PRINT TAB Zi. 2) 

150 PR INT TAB(12) 

160 PRIM I \P.tt i 129 " i 

:i 70 PRINT TAB (12) " ! 

.:.30 PRINT TAB (12) " ! 

190 PRINT TAB(12) "I 

200 PRINT TAB(12) "\" 

210 PRINT TAB(12) "; 

bb;3 PRINT TAB (12) " 1 

Calculates end-o-f — n.onth b 1 oocl lead 

C o n c e n t r a t i on ;s t or c. h i cl r en a q e <z> vear s 

'AB (33) TODAY* TAB (70) "!" 

Strategies and Air Standards Di' 

PRINT i....F*;LF*: "SPECIFICATIONS FOR THIS ANALYSIS: 

i INPUT SRC* 

290 PRINT "Enter name ot control scenario to be analyzed (in CAPS); 

INPUT CTRL* 

270 INPUT "Enter last year ot child exposure (4 digits): ", YEAR 

2S0 IF YEAR9 1980 OR YEAR>1997 THEN PRINT "PROGRAM ONLY FOR 1980-1997" 

2 9 0 IN P U1"

 !' E i'i t. e r n a m e o t :i. n o u t til e i n D bi S -F o r mat : " - FIL. IE * 

300 INPUT "What type ot uptake estimates - upper (1) or lower (Oi fooun 

310 PRINT "Do you want the Geometric mean blood concentration ior ear 

320 Pbf'UT "tract duri na the nest to last ves.r- o-f exposure (9/N) '9 GibO* 

930 ;•'•'!•'•". IMT LF'*; "Inputs complete., Press; (Shift PrtSc) to print spec! i'i 

390 INPUT "Then press ''ENTER' to continue: ", C* 

GOTO 

; i... i t et i on na 11 ~-t i mes 

0 FOR 1%-" 0 TO o: READ SCALE (IX): NEXT I % 

0 CBLUR(1 %)= LOG(2 )/ SCALE(KX ? 

REM -s-*# bone turn a V f r ~> L::al . . 

J 50 FOR I%:= 0 TO 6 s READ FACTOR ( IX) :; NEXT 

460 FOR IXTM 1 TO 84 

-I- •' i.» K'/, -~ '. i '/., - • 1 ) \ \. ..::. 

4 8 0 C B L B (J ( I X) -~ „ 3 -s- F A C T 0 R (KX) / 8 D 

00 9E9'I **•«• bona remova l half-time s 

10 DA'Ob .1. 135 , 1 135 „ 1 1 35 , 1. 1 35 „ 1 1 35 „ 1 135 „ i 1 35 

: M cg p 3; • » y. jn &. PEHU i-i-',C TOR ( 19) 5 NEXT IX 

I- IM-

•' "/' :: 1 TO 8 4 

..03 ( 2'1 /'F'AC "I 09 ( K 

b bi o -.) i^ | ;-i 

i-i .1. IJD t 

„ 4 „ „ 3 . 
P.62 

"...""'...' 

6 0 0 

Ci'!-A, 

,,•,:•..;;-, 

o90 

c..50 

660 

,-. 7 i.) 

680 

6 9 0 

700 

/ 10 

7 Lb 0 

730 

"V '.'•'.'.' r '\ 

.•' .•' :. ) 

.' '••:•' i ) 

800 

, -•'

 ! .:, 

Si 2 Ci 

;'•"! 3-i'.. ' 

9I40 

SUO 

860 

300 

;..9L'0 

900 

'"' 1 0 

920 

9:30 

940 

950 

9 69 

7 SO 

999 

1 OO 

101. 

.1. 02 

i 0 3 • 

j. 0 4 

.999 

! • 'i ••% 

\. 'J O ' 

j. .':. 1. 

:! 13 

!. j. 4 

1. 1 5-

1. 1 ••::• 

1 17 ' 

.;. 1 bi 

:. 1 •? 

121 

; -••-,•"•, 

.'. Li. 3 

, — . 1 — 

' ' ' '1 

I'LL 13 i. A- " Z i LJ c... i' i- '•• c.. -1 U > ..pi.J v i. ••'../ « i vi'..::. A 1 .1. /» 

DATA 3 , 3 95 « 5 , 5 . 10 , 10 

FOR IXf 0 TO 6: READ CLIGUT(IX): NEXT IX 

CL I GU ( IX) •-= CL i. GU 1" (KX) 

GI(IX)= GU(KX) 

NEXT IX 

REM -S-S-* Body weight with aqe "--

DATA 4,5,6,6.7,7.4,3,8.5,9,9.2,9.6,10.10.4 

DATA 12.12,12,12,13,13,13,13,14,14,14,14 

DATA 15,15,15,15,16,16„16,16,17,17,17,17 

DATA 18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18,18 

DATA 19,19,19,19 „'l9 „ 19,19,19,19,19,19, 19 

DATA 21.21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21 

DATA 23,23,'23,23,23,23,24,24,24,24,25,25: REM Added line 

.............. .. „. _ j .,...... {..t... 

'• "...I! \ ... /„- - !. ! v.! >..jAiREAD WT(IX) 

9TB (IX)- SO*-NT (IX) 

REM »•»•«- Use mitcheli Ca data and divide by .37 -for ash weight 

DATA 30 . 40 , 45 , 50 . 55 „ 60 , 65 , 75 . 80 , 35 , 92 , 100 

DATA 105 . 1 05 , 1 10 , .1. 15 , 1 20 , 1 22 , 125,, 130 , 135 , 137, 140 ,145 

DATA 1 50 , 151 „ 155 , 1 57 , 1 60 , 162,165,167,1 70 , 1 73 , 1 75 , i. 30 

DATA 180„182,185.185„188.190,190,192,195,196,193,200 

DAT'A 200 , 203 , 205 , 206 , 207 „ 210 , 210 . 213 ., 214 , 215 „ 217 ,, 220 

DATA 220 ,221, 223 , 225 . 226 , 230 . 230 , 231 „ 232 , 235 ,, 236 , 24 0 

DAT'A 241 „ 243 , 245 . 247 , 250 ,, 2:51 , 254 , 255 , 257 , 260 . 262 . 265: REP'I Added h;.e 

'bbf'i •'".• ""

 L'-'" '1 'TV' ! '.'•'•'' .•'! 

READ WTBO(IX) 

97 90 (IX) - Wl'BO ( I X) / . 37 

NEXT IX 

R E M * •* •'.-•• S- •¥: »• •¥: * •:»• -K- * H- S # -A # * •¥.• if * ¥: * ¥.• •&• -S- ft- -%• ¥: * -S- •#• * * * ->!'• -K- -X- * •*• W R- * -?: S- S # S- K- -X- H- -S- S- # *• •¥: S- •*:• ¥: •¥.• * S- * 

PRINT LF$;' "Begin calculations for each cohort within census tracts:" 

OPEN FILE* FOR INPUT AS #1 

FOR CTRACT - 1 TO 9999 

CT = CTRACT 

IF EOF ( 1 ) "i" I-l EN GOTO 1140 

i"' '...;("': I'-'il'.'J

 ::~ i':;; T L; i.i '.:::> i 1TM!'-' i 

IN P U"!' # 1 , B L A N i< *: REM Bla ri k line precedes aqe g r o u p data. 

FOR Y :=

: AG! TO 0 STEP --1 

I) INPUT #1, TRACT, CGROUP(AG), CROP (AG), CYEAR 

b TRACT* = STR* (TRACT) : PRINT LF*:LF* 

U FOR L = 1 TC 5: IF LEN (TRACT*) <7 THEN TRACT* == TRACT*-i-" "s NEXT' ! 

'•• PRI N1" L F * : "!" R A C T * s C G R 0 LJ F:' (A G) ; C P 0 P (AG) ; C Y E A R :: 

b FOR MO =- 1 TG 12 

b INPUT #1. , UPTAKE (Y,MG) 

J P RI N "i" U P "i" A K E ( Y „ M 0) : 

'< NEXT MO 

j Nib XT Y 

I'i PRIN T LF*:!....!-'*: : GOSU B 1190 : REM Cohor t calc . tor aq e grou p AG 

i NEX T AG 

..' PRIN T L.F*;;LF* 

) GOSUB 1900: REM -ZH-4>- Output Table -for 1 census tract 

.'; NEXT CTR ACT 

b GOSUB 2590: 19EM *•** Output tables required 10/11/85. **•><•* 

) NOW* •* TIME*: LPRINT CHR*(12); LF*; LF*s TODAY*: " " : NOW* 

3 93"!" ft F:: 

') REM 

•j RE;M ************###**#* Process One Cohort **********************#***** 

b 19EM -K-s-ji- Initial values tor each cohort: 

j TBONE ~ 200: DBONE --• 0 

i T"| T ..'!::: p ,"; „ p i '[ i.'>~:<-.•• — • ."•• 

3 TKIDNEY -•= 0: DKIDNEY •-= 0 

-,..--., ............... .-. .- l—,| ,"-."'U"' 
i M..oUi3 

P.63 

CBLK I TM i 

19 BL. •

 :;:: 52 

LOG 

LOG 

2) / (10* 1") : CL I BL. == LOG (2) / (23 * T) 

CKIBL =•• LOG (2) / ( 10*T • 

: WL.I = 1700: WKI = 300 

i / I ••. ; I ••: 

0: MBO = 50 

a.!, c m ati on; 

{• -i G 7, TM ;-:i U 

ENDMO »= ( AG-i-1 i •»-1 2 

each m o r"! t h o f life 

1340 FOR IX = 1 TO ENDMO 

1350 YRX = (IX-1)\12: MOX = IX - YRX*12 

1360 PRINT "TRACTS"; TRACT*: " AGE GRP=";AG; " YR==";YR7.; " M0^";M0X 

.1.370 I NvJECT == UPTAKE (YRX , MOX) 

1330 PRINT " INJECT^"; INJECT; " BLQGD=": 

1400 

j ,<i. i Q 

1420 

i. '99') 

1440 

1 450 

1 460 

.1.470 

1. 480 

.10 30 

1540 

REIM **•<•• blood «•** 

DBLOOD = INJECT •+• (LOG(2)/CLIGUCIX))*TLIVER*G1(IX) 

DBLOOD = DBLOOD - CBLBO ( IX) *TBLGGD - CBLLIs-TBLOOD •- CBLKI .\'TBLOGD 

DBLOOD ~ DBLOOD + CBOBL ( IX) *'i"BONE + CLIBL*'i"L.I9ER -i- CKIBL * i'Ki DNEY 

D B L. ill 0 D •-• D B L OO D - C B L U R (IX ) * T B I... 0 0 D 

1" BLOOD » "I" BLOOD •+• DBLOOD 

REM *-•&•* 1 i ver ## * 

OLIVER = CBLLI*TBLOOD CLIBL*TLIVER ••- 1 /CLIGU (IX) #L06 (2) *TI_IVER 

T!... IV E19 ~ T LIV E R + D LIV E R 

FilEM **•* kiclne v *** 

DKIDNEY = CBLKI*TBLOOD - CKIBL*"i"KIDNEY 

TKIDNEY --•••• TKIDNEY -i- DKIDNEY 

REM K-S* bon e *••&# 

I.) B CJ N E: = C B L 3 0 (1X5 * T B L 0 0 D - C B 0 3 L (IX ) * 1" B 0 N E 

TBONE == T'BONE -i- DBONE 

"i"B(AGX, IX ) = Cl'BLOGD/ WT'B(IX) ) * 100 : REM Conver t uq/m l t o uq/d i 

i PRIN T USING "###.##" : TB(AGX,IX ) 

1.5S0 I F I X = 3 6 THEN TRLVL.36(AG) = TB (AGX, IX ) 

.1.590 REM *•** 

16 00 I F (GMQ*^"N " OR 6MQ*="n" ) THEN GOTO 164 0 

.i. C> -I. • •' L.M lu-! V i-'./t. — MLJ/ B ~" I 

9b20 I F (YRX^GNQYRX) THEN TRSUMO = TRSUMO + TB(AGX.IX ) 

i'.F (AC<>6 ) THEN GOTO 170 0 

PGPWT "'• CPO!-- (Alb) -9...0G (TB (AGX , IX ) ) 

biUMMiJ , VRX„ MOX) = SUM MO <• YRX , MOX) -:•• POPwl" 

I F (IX'==36) THEN SUMM36 = SUMM36 •+• PGPWT 

I F ( i" B '• A G % , IX ) > I-l IG i-i 6 (C "i' „ Y R X) ) 1" i-l E N HI G I-i 6 (C !" „' 

SUM 1 2M (YRX) =

:

 EiUM 12M (YRX) -i I'D (AGX . IX ) 

-•;• u 

~; i '! 

TRAVGilii AG) •-- TRSUMQ/12 : T'RSUMQ = 0. REM rese t to r nex t censu s tiPR I NT AG; " TRAVGQ(AG)="; TRAVGQ(AG) 

REM •*-•!•:» Geom. means tor 7--vear cohorts (AG--6) **•«-* 

IF (AG< >6) 1"FiEN G0T0 1380 

FOR Y2=0 TO 6 

SLiMHI ( Y2 ) == SUMHI ( Y2 ) •+• CP0P (AG) *L0G (HIGH6 (CT „ Y2) ) 

YEARA9G = SUM12M (Y2) /12: SUM12M(Y2) == Os REM Reset **•* 

SUM YR (Y2 ) -~ SUi-'IYR ( Y2) -i- CROP (AG) *LOG ( YEAR AVG) 

TRAVG6CY2) -- YEARAVG 

TOT 6 -= T0T6 + CROP (AG) 

FOR Y2-<> TO 3: SUM = SUM + HIGH6 (CT, Y2) s NEXT Y2 

SUMMA - SUMMA + CROP (AG zs-LOG (SUM/4) . REM sum/4 - ava 

SUM ^ 0 

F'OR Y2=4 TO 6: SUM ••- SUM •••- HIGH6 (CT, Y2) : NEXT Y2 

SUM MB = SUMMB -r CROP (AG) -H..OG (SUM/3) : REM sum/3 » ava 
P.64 

•j Q'yO 

'! '/40 

.1. '"/ .'"' '..•' 

1990 

'•71 n 

2 040 

2 () 6 0 

2 Ci 7 0 

20 99 

21 1 0 

• : ( '". ''• -: 

,-•' j .'•".. J 

iii: ij ;i:|i; 

2 2 0 0 

1:210 

v 'p V t ~j 

' '.• : ."'; ( ) 

v '..'• .-:!| f 'j 

,b.lb9.; 

2 .L 6, i.i 

,•• ••' / • i 

2 2 BO 

2-:>00 

••,'. -j.'...'•„•' 

- M -'.:• -i •" 

, : , j , ,••,.-, 

2410 

2430 

2440 

2450 

2 4 7 0 

2

;!i° 

T ' A '| 

.1.1- LMiU -

: U ! rii-i'i i-'li}- -•" "LUWCK " 

LF BND9- 1 THEN BD* = "UPPER" 

TiiTcE* == SRC* -1- " - " -1- CTRL* 

"IT...X =' 35, -• LEN (TITLE*) / 2 

90R.BX - 1 TG T9..X: TITLE* = " " •'••• TITLE*: NEXT BX 

L..PR I NT Ci iR* ( 1.2 ) : LF*; i...F*; TI TLE* 

.....PRINT TAB (13) BD*;; " BOUND ESTIMATES OF END-OF MONTH BLOOD LEAD " 

!.... F:' R I i vi "1 T A B (1 3 5 " C 0 N C E N T R A "i" 1 0 N S F 0 R C 0 I-l 0 R 7 S IN C E N S U S "1' R A C' 1"" : i" 19 A C1 4 

LPRINT LP*: "- — ==.-.-==;,=,::;= :„:::;::.=„;;^:;;::::=:::=._::^=,;,.„^;::;= :=;;^= ^;^=;;:.:.:;.:;::::;:.=,;=:::„::nt^r::;,:,= ::=,^„,,:::::rrt,:,,:,::=, ==::,u.,„„:;;,:. 

LPRINT " Aqe End-of-Month Blood Lead.Coneentratior 

LPRINT YEAR; " Pop Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 KI 

FOR AG = 6 10 0 STEP -1 

LPRINT LF*;: LPRINT USINS"### #####"; CGROUP(AG), CROP(AS); 

FOR Y =•- 0 TO AG 

9Y = YEAR -AG + Y: LPRINT TAB (13) YY; " "; 

FOR MO ~ 1 TO 12 

I = Y*12 -i- MO 

LPRI NT USING "### "; TB(AG,I) ; 

IF YY <> YEAR THEN GOTO 2120 

IF TB (AG , I) > I-l IGHPB (CT , AG) THEN HIGHPB (CT , AG) = TB (AG , I) 

NEXT MO 

NEXT Y 

NEXT AG 

TRPCP » 0 

FOR AG = 0 TO 6: TRPOP = TRPOP + CROP(AG): NEXT,AG 

REM -K-SS--S- Donna SI edge option: 

IF <GMQ*="N" OR 6MQ*="n") THEN GOTO 2280 

TRPOF'Q ~ TRPOP - CPOF:'(0); REM aae 0 not born in ne;-: t -to-1 as I. year. 

FOR AG ~ 1 TO 6 

L 0 (3 A V G •;--•• L CJ G (T R A V G Q (A 6 ) ) 

NT SUMO ~ WT'SUMQ -1- CROP (AG) * LOG AVG 

NEXT AG 

GEOMQ = EXP (N'TSUMQ/'TRPOPQ) s WT'SUMQ TM 0: REM Reset -for ne;-: t: census tr 

(..PRINT "Popul at i on-Wei ght eel Geometric Mean Cone, during"; (YE A R-l) ; 

LPR I NT US I NG " ###, # " ; GEOMQ; : LPR I NT " uq / ci I „ " 

REM •*-*•:*- Jef-f Cohen -Footnote: 

";" P SO l¥ 13 6=0;; T R P 0 P 3 6 - 0 

F ZR AG- 9 TCf 6 

TRP0P36 ~ TRP0P36 + CPOP(AG) 

TRSUM36 ••••- "1'RSUM36 + CP0P (AG) * L0G (TRLVL36 (AG) ) 

NEXT AG 

TPGM56 ••- EXP CT9SUM36/TRP0P36) 

LPRINT "F'opul at i on—Wei anted Geometric Mean Cone:, in 36th mo."-': 

L P R IN'!" U S iii N G " # # #. #'' s T R G113 6; 

LPRINT " uq/dl." 

!"V r.b.i I ".'<".••.' v V 

FOR Y2=<> TO 3s TRSUMA = TRSUMA + LOG(TRAVG6(Y2)): NEXT Y2 

"IT9 Gil A -- EXP( TRSUMA/4> : TRSUMA = 0: REM reset -90 r next census tract 

LF19 J! NT " Ge0ma t r i c I'iean o-f An n ua il. A vo . C0n c s., f 0r t h e 84-m0n t h f i0!". 0r ••: 

LPRINT " Durinq Years": (YEAR-6): "-"; (YEAR-3): " = "; 

L!::;' R iii iM T' U iiii I N G !' tt # # „ #'' : "1" R G M A ; : L. P R I N T '' u a / d ii. '' 

FOR Y2-4 TO 6; TRSUMB =

: TRSUMB + LOG (TRA9G6 (Y2) ) ; NEXT Y2 

TRGMB ~ EXP (TRSUMB/3) : TRSUMB =

: 0: REM reset -for next census tract 

LPRINT " During Years"; (YEAR-2); "~"s (YEAR): "•--"; 

L.PR 1 N'T US 'ii NG " ### „ # " ; TRGMB; : LPR I NT " uq / ri 1 ., " 

i 6UiviH - !.:•: 1 ;:.:.!.Jrlu = u: REM: Reset tor next census tract 

LI-' R119 T" "Hi q h est e n d 0 f •••- m o n t h b I 0 0 d lead 0 c c u r r i n q i n " : Y E A R; " bv a a e 

F OR lb: .== 0 'TO cb 

(uq. 

1 1 

-------

:-

.::'.i.. C. 

• ' •;:•; : 

11 

qrour 

9:9. 

1 

• : " 
P.65 

2530 

2550 

.ib O 9' 9-: 

L P RI N "F U S I iM G ': tt # # . # " : HI G !-i P B (C T . G ) : 

. ' IF (G=2) THEN LPRINT LF*; 

NEXT G , 

P G ••••A P G -i-1 ; ;.... p RI N "i" L F *: L. i:::' *:; L. P R119"i" T A B (3 2 ) " P ace" ; P G 

R£TL.:RN 

R P M 

n'bM -z;zi*--» *••**•;;• Uucp c TQr " i-l.i. .L <MI---piQ:"l'Ch in Study Area 

0 LPRINT 12): LF*;LF* 

2640 

LPRINT TAB(17) "SUMMARY DATA FOR 84-MONTH COHORTS " 

LPR I NT T I. TLE*; LF*; LF*; LF*; LF*; TAB (33) ; " Tab 1 e 1 . " 

LPRINT TAB (13) "GEOMETRIC MEANS OF ";BD*: " BOUND ESTIMATES OF END--OF--MONTH 

LPRINT TAB(16) "BLOOD LEAD CONCENTRATIONS FOR ALL 84-MONTH COHORTS 

i i-i'3 7 H T " 

'lean Blood Lead Concentratio n (uci/di 

• B3.r 

LF* : 

F-'OF, Y -= 0. TO 6 

YY - YEAR - 6 + Y: LPRINT TAB(13) YY: 

FOR MC = 1 TO 12 

GE0MI90 = EXF9SUMM0(Y,M0 ) /T0T6 ) 

LPRIN T USING "## # " ; GEOMMO: 

I.IEKT Y 

L P R IN"!" LF * 

'7 3> f-p 

LPR I NT LF*: LF*; LF*; LF*; LPR I NT TAB (33) " Tab 1 e 2.." 

LPRINT TAB (12) "GEOMETRIC MEANS OF ";BD*;" BOUND "ESTIMATES OF ANNUAL AVER?' 

1800 LPRINT TAB(15) "BLOOD LEAD CONCENTRATIONS FOR ALL 84-MONTH COHORTS 

•: O 2 Ci I.... P RI N "I" I" A B ( 2 0 ) " M e a n B1 o o d L e a d " 

:: 0 IS C; i... F- RI N "I" T A B ( 2 0 ) " Yea r Con c e n t r a t i o n ( u q / d 1 ) " 

Y --• 0 TO 6 

• ' V c:. ;•••; i \ ra f i » i....r rv .<. w ! i M D K ..:..f-J} T T r, " 

GEOMY'R .= EXP(SUMYR(Y) /T0T6) : LPRINT USING "###.#"; GEOMYi 

3 T;-iEN SUM1 == SUM1 -i- GEOMYR 

9.H12 == SUM2 +• GEOMYR 

9 5 Ci 

-. i. :'. i'. } 

0 •::. C' 

0 7 0 

000 

MEAN! =- SUM1 /' 4s MEAN2 = SUM2 / 3 

LPRINT LF*:;LF*; TAB (20); (YY-6) "-" (YY-3): TAB(3S);: LPRINT USING "i;T9 

MEAN! 

:.... P RIN' I" L. F *: 1" A B (2 0 ) ; (Y Y 2 ) " - " (Y Y i ; "I" A B (3 8 i ;; : L P RIN ' I" U S IN S " tt # #., #'' :, 

1EAN2 

L!-' R IN T C H R * ( 1 2) : L F *;; L F * 

LPRINT TAB(17) "SUMMARY DATA FOR S4-M0NTH COHORTS" 

LPRINT TITLE*: LF*:LF* 

FOR Y2--0 TO 6;; GE0M(Y2) = EXP (SUMHI (Y2) /TOT65 : NEXT" Y2 

LPRINT TAB (10) " Table 3,. Study Area Means (b) of Highest ' 

LPRINT TAB(10) " End-a9-Month Blood Lead Concentration by Cohort Aqe " 

LPRINT TAB(10) "I Cohort I Calendar i Blood Lead I" 

LPRINT TAB (10) "! Aqe (Years) I Year ! Concentration (uo/d.'L ) I" 

j !"" t" : •• 1 : t— ; "r * .". V ; ,•• -j .- •, '-, I I I !! „ •-..-•"": ., i J i II _ -. / \ / ii I II „ 
P.66 

9.40 

: 160 

9.70 

'• .1. E; 0 

i 2 0 0 

;2io 

..,::: £:>(..' 

• 2.7 Qi 

' ..•:.. r.i v.i 

i._r rv .i. I'M i 

LPRINT . 

.GEOMA -

: 

i...PR HI T 

i \-,f". T f-. i~r 

i j- ; r-i r ;•.; •.'•• 

I.„:" \ \ .1. 1 ••. I 

LPRINT 

LPRINT 

LPRINT 

LPRINT 

LPR INTERR TNT 

LPRINT 

GE0M36 

LPRINT 

LPRINT 

LPRINT 

LPRINT L 

LPRINT ' 

LPRINT ' 

LPRINT '• 

LPRINT ' 

LPRINT ' 

: SUMMA /TO "i"6) . GEOMB =•-••• EXP (SUMMB/T0T6) 

TAB(10) " 

TAB(10) " 

TAB (10) "• 

"FAB (10) " 

Table 4. Studv Area Means(b) of Blood Lead 

i n d :i. c a t o r s (c ) b v C o h < .11 '... I-l U tJ 

'.../ VJ I I Vl I !... 

A q e ( V e a r 

l.^ a j. e n Q a r 

Year s 

B il o o d L e a d iii n d :i. ca t o ;•-

Ccncentration (u 3 / qI) 

TAB(10) "1 0 3 I"; (YEAR-6); ; (YEAR-3) i, " 

USING "###.,#"; GE0MA; ; LPRINT " I" . 

TAB (10) "I 4-6 I"; (YEAR-2) ; "•-"; YEAR; "i ": 

USING "tttttt.tt"; GEOMB:; LPRINT " I" 

LF*:LF* 

:== EXP(SUMM36/T0T6) 

"I" A B (10) " P o p u 1 a t i o n - w e i q h t e d G e o .TI e t r :i. c M e a n C o n c e n t r a t :• o n " 

TAB (10) "in 36th month o-f life -"; 

i.Jib ING '' -ii##,. # " ; GE(I)M36; ; LPRIM"F '' uq / d 1 „ 

F *; L F *; L I- *; " F 0 0 T N 0 "F E S; 

(a) Seven year (84-month) cohorts are born January 1 o-f tht 

•first year and experience 7 full years (84 months)" 

of exposure prior to their 7th birthday." 

(b) Table 1-4 means are population-weiqhted qeometric meani 

o-f a blood lead indicator -for the seven-year cohort in 

:.':, Hi3 

LPRINT 

LPRINT" 

LPRINT 

LPR I NTRETURN 

Table 4 blood lead indicator ior the seven-v.sar co!' ort. 

one cen sus t r ac t i s t he ar i thtriet i c mean o f ii i qhest er- d • 

month blood concentration durinq eacFi year in a series 

years." 
P.67 

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1 98 3 P6-? YEAR 

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197 4 

1975 

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POPULATION WSIGH T CD G10M ETRIC *r*> CONC . I Hi 3 6TI ! .'10 

13. 4 UG/D1 , 

Jm-. UG/D 1 

GE CM ETRI C MEAN 

DURING YG4KS 

OF ANNUAL AVG . 

4- VT+r •1 '7 7 -

CONCS . FOR 

2 UG/S l 

THE 8 4-MONT H COHORT 
P.74 

AND PUrtING YcAiiiS 1 j 7£-1 93 J B 1&.1 U6 / S 1 

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BLOOD PB CONC 

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-64-i *9« -

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27 27 26 27 25 26 26 

29 

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POPULATION-WEIGHT?D GEOMETRIC MEAN CCNC. DURING 197 9 = 18. 8 UG/D1 . 

POPULATION 'Jil CI OUT = D • 3 ? 0 >! C T 3 IC ih CCMCGEOMETRIC MEAN OF ANNUAL AVG. CONCS. FOR 

DURING YbAi'S 1774-197 7 - J-,.1 UC/O l 

- H f 'Jt'rHt rn—rvi— - •"• — C UV 

THE 84-MCNTh COHORT 

6 U6/M , 
P.76 

AND DU3I-.";G-YrAft" 9 7.3-193 9 *> Mi. d UG / 0 1 

HIGHEST END-OF-MONTH RLOO D LEAD OCCURRING IN.. ..19 8 0 BY ASE GROUP: 

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AGE 

1 9 3 J P&P YEAR 

BLOOD PB CONC 

9 10 H 1-2-

6 

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197 4 

1?75 

54 

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197 8 

1977 

198 0 

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19 18 

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24 

17 

2 2 . 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 20 

-3-3-; 197 6 

3 3 . 197 7 

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1 8 

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19 

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197 9 

190 3 

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1977 

19 73 

46 

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3 6 

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28 26 

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197 9 

198 3 

22 

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23 

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22 

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22 

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197 8 

1779 

42 

-45-

33 

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2 9 

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26 

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24 

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2 3 

•4-S21 

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21 

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u 198 0 16 16 16 16 15 16 15 16 17 18 17 15 

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1 0 10 

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12 

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POPULATION-WEIGHTE D GEOMETRI C MEAN CONC . DURIN G 197 9 20. 8 UG/D1 , 

POPULATIO N WEIGHTE D GEOMETRI C SEAN CONC . I N JC'TH MO 1 UG/M , 

GEOMETRI C MEAN 

DURING VCAiiS 

OF ANNUAL 

1 9 74- 1 'i77 

AVG . CONCS . FOR 

~ 2 6 • Z U C; > D 1 

THE 84-MONT H COHORT 
P.78 

AND BUSING YSAKe--1-9-?a-T93' ?0.3 uG/ M 

HIGHEST END-OF-MONTH ELOOD LEAD OCCURRING IN. 1980 BY AGE GROUP: 

"t •rs-, 

< 3 )= 18.9 

( 6 ) - 10. 2 

"(—! )= 12.3 

( 4 )= 19. 1 

( 2 )= I £.3 

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GULTJ 0 0 / L • v) UST %2/ U LOWEF, 30 .CO 

AGE BLOOD P3 CONC 

193 J Pei3-—Y-2-Afi 1 1 3 1 5 6 ? 8 9 10 14 fr 9 -

6 19. 1974 52 41 35 32 29 27 26 25 25 23 23 23 

-6 44-* fr^ff fr4> 4-9 2-6 2-5 « fr^ * 9 fr? fr8 « fr6 fr9-

6 19 . 1976 26 26 27 26 25 25 25 26 24 24 24 25 

t m frW « H H H W » tt » M 2"3 » • 

6 19. 1975 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 

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6 19. 1980 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 14 

-5 29-s fr^M 5^3 *rz 3-4 54 2-8 ?•? 26 2"* 24 29 2r g-2-

5 23. 1976 18 13 18 18 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 

-5 2*i W f 2"5 2-5 2-5 25 2 * W 2^ 2^i 23 « W 2*~ 

5 23. 1978 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 

-5 95-s 44^9 4-9 4-9 4-9 fr*-—fr9 <HJ fr9 2-g 2Q fr9 fr9 zttr 

5 23. 1980 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 

-4 M-i fr9« =-45 3-6 34 9€ 95 24 95 9-9 99 94 95 95-

4 16. 1977 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 16 16 16 16 

-4 46r, 4^7-3 35 35 34 34 33 35 35 ?5 99 94 94 95r4 ' 16. 1979 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 

-4 1-6-s fr^g-3 fr4 fr4 1-6 fr* fr* fr* *•* 1-* f* 1-* T4 «-=-

3 16. 1977 43 35 30 27 24 23 22 21 21 20 19 19 

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O * Z ff-

«t -r r -

vv. < v 

O f-

Z » 3 <. :e UJ • C £ ' >- VJ l i l p cr »- »JH UJ (: 

ir. : J o $ UJ v9 
P.88 

-Atre- -BUSING YeArt 

HIGHEST £:JC-0F-M0NTH FLOOD 

1 93 J - U .2 UG/ 61 

LEAD OCCURRING tN . 198 0 BY AGE GROUP: 

< G J^ 2 2.u— r 

( 3 )= 14.<. ( 

( 0 ) - U. 7 

1 )=—9vt r 

4 )= 14. 7 

( l ?= 13. i 

( 5 )= 15.3 
P.89 

iUWt'lAKY—PAT A FOH !J4-!''Q>,TH COHORTS 

GULF2 80/ L - DUST 1,2/ U (19.74 - 198 0) 

GEO.".ETRIC fU'ANS 

TABLE 1 , 

o r LOWCS BOUND ESTIMATES OT END-0T-MONTH 

BLOOD LEAD CONCENTRATIONS FOR ALL 34-MONTH COHORTS(A) 

YEAR 

MEAN BLOOD 

5 A 

LEAD 

c 

CONCENTRATIONS 

—6 ? e — 

(UG/DL ) 

—9—fe- •++• •+2-

197-. 

197 5 

1?76 

1977 

1973 

1979 

19C J 

-5-1-

19 

-ttr 

2 3 

-trf 

2V 20 

•Vt- -tr19 

23 

-rr23 -ro23 

-trr 

23 

19 

-w19 19 

-zrtr 

23 23 

-rt23 

18 18 

- S i 

23 

20 

23 

-tt1 8 

24 

1 9 

-r-y 

24 

1 9 

-zrr1V 

-rt20 

-Yr 

-Ft20 

•ZT20 

-rzr 

20 

cc 

20 

i- c 

20 

c c 

2 0 

-T3r 

20 20 

-rtTA8LE 2 . 

OgOMETKIC MEANS Of LO>jER BOUND ESTIMATES OF ANNUAL AVERAGE 

BLOOD LEAD CONCENTRATIONS FOR ALL 84 -MONTH- .COHORTS ( A) 

YEAR 

MEAN BLOOD LEAD 

CONCENTRATION (UG/DL) 

1974 

1 -S ?r, 

30.1 

IS. 9 

1976 

19 7 7 

25.2 

1978 

1979 

21.8 

19 • g 

198 0 14.3 

1974 

107S 

197 7 

198G 

24.3 

ia.6 
P.90 

GUMMAS Y—&ATA F 0 A 04-."'0;9 

- DUST 1,2/ U 

H COHORTS 

GULF 2 3'J/L (1-9 74 - 19oU ) 

TABLE 3 . STUCY AREA MEANS(O) OF 

END-OF-MONTH BLOOD LEAD CONCENTRATION 

HIGHEST 

BY COHORT AGE 

PWW> JL ^ HJ B M B.M V -f 

COHORT | CALENDAR I BLOOD LEAD 

Abe UcARb)— T T bAr< b T CONCENTHA HU N (UG/DL ) 

1974 

1975 

D 1 , 3 

20. 0 

26. a 

23. 8 

T976 

3 197 7 

-4-

5 

-tr 

1975 

1979 

i9ao 

20. 4 

15. 0 

TAeLE 4.—STUD* A R 2A figANS(B) OF BLOOD LEAD 

INDICATORS(C ) BY COHORT AGE 

COHORT I 

AGE(YfcAR3)I 

CALENDAR 

YEARS 

BLOOD LEAD INDICAJOR 

CONCENTRATION (US/DL ) 

-3- 3 1 1974 177 7 I 

4 - 6 I 197 8 - 198 0 I 19. 2 

POPULATION-WEI GH T D GCOrtETrnC AN C ONCENTHAT I OH 

I N 36TH MONTH CF LIF E = 24. 5 UG/DL. 

FOOTNOT E 

( A ) SEVE 

mX. 

YE 

-Y-r 

AR (84-MONTH ) COHORTS A?E BORN JANUARY 1 OF 

AND EXPERIENCE 7 fULL YEARS (0 * MO NTH a ) 

THE 

F-ffl-5 

OF EXPOSURE PRIOR TO THEIR 7TH BIRTHDAY. 

<D) TAOLC 1-4 MCAhS API PCPULATIQN-WEIGHTCD GEOMETRIC XCANG 

OF A 

CCNS 

BLO 

US T 

OD LE AD 

ft ACT i 

INDICATOR FOR THE SEVEN-YEAR COHORT I N EACH 

( C ) TABL , BLOOD LEAC INDICATOR FOR THE SEVEN-YEAR COHORT I N 

ONE CENSUS TRACT IS The ARITHMETIC f'EAN OF HIGHEJT 5NB-0F 

MONT H BLOOD CONCENTRATION DURING EACH YEAR IN A SERIES OF 

YEAR 

3ASG.A SASD*GULF2-3G . 

FAC WARNING 1 JCt'UOD ..UUJQ 

SUS5 8»S ASD*GULF2"£r