COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK                                    April 12, 1999
April 1999, ERS-CWS-0499
               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued electronically monthly by the Economic
Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. 
Electronic release only; no printed copies available.  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

HIGHLIGHTS

0  Higher Cotton Area Projected for 1999
0  U.S. Stocks Increased Slightly in April, Demand Unchanged
0  Foreign Production and Consumption Lower 
0  U.S. Textile Imports and Exports Rise in January
0  Wool and Mohair Production Decline in 1998
0  Special Article--Patterns in USDA's World Consumption    
Adjustments

Higher Cotton Area Projected for 1999

Farmers intend to plant nearly 14 million acres (up 4 percent) of
cotton in 1999, according to USDA's Prospective Plantings  report
released on March 31. Upland plantings are projected to exceed
13.6 million acres, 4 percent above 1998, while extra-long staple
(ELS) area is anticipated at 305,000 acres, 7 percent below a
year ago.

Despite lower cotton prices this spring, the higher area is
expected as a result of less attractive competing crop prices.
During the first three months of 1999, December cotton futures
prices averaged around 61 cents per pound, well below the 72-cent
average of a year ago. However, prices and price ratios for
competing crops, like corn and soybeans, have fallen too. For the
January through March period, the corn-to-cotton price ratio was
3.8, compared with 3.9 last year, while the soybean-to-cotton
price ratio equaled 8.5, compared with 9.0 a year ago.  Although
the corn price ratio is similar to 1998, the aflatoxin problems
associated with corn production last season in several States is
an additional incentive to return to cotton in 1999. In contrast,
the soybean price ratio is the lowest since 1995, with soybean
prices below the loan rate. Soybeans may only be an alternative
in some areas if substantial delays in cotton and other grains
are experienced this season.

Upland acreage is expected to rise in three of the four regions
in 1999. In the Delta, upland area is projected to rise 9 percent
from 1998 to 3.5 million acres, similar to the 1997 season.
Likewise, producers in the Southeast have indicated a 7-percent
increase in 1999 area to 3.3 million acres, the highest since the
1995 season. In the Southwest, slightly less than 6 million acres
of upland cotton were expected to be planted this year, up 2
percent from 1998 and similar to 1996. In contrast, the West
region indicated a reduction in its upland area by 8 percent from
1998 to only 882,000 acres. The decline is largely the result of
an expected shift in some California upland area to ELS cotton.
Although upland area in the West has been decreasing since 1995,
the 1999 indications from Prospective Plantings would be the
lowest planted acreage for the region since 1946.

While only a few States have planted any cotton, Arizona and
California have noticeably fallen behind again this year, which
could limit some of the shifting to earlier-planted ELS cotton
this season. As of April 4, these States have planted 10 and 2
percent, respectively, compared with their respective 5-year
averages of 24 and 9 percent. In contrast, Texas is reported to
have 9 percent of its cotton crop planted, equal to a year ago
and only slightly below the average. Overall, as of April 4, U.S.
cotton plantings were 4 percent complete, compared with 5 percent
last season and a 5-year average of 6 percent.

U.S. Stocks Increased Slightly in April, Demand Unchanged

Although the first official 1999 USDA cotton supply and demand
projections based on the Prospective Plantings will not be
released until May 12, the carryin stock estimate was raised
slightly this month. The increase in U.S. stocks was the result
of the recent Cotton Ginnings report indicating 1998 U.S. cotton
production of 13.9 million bales, compared with an earlier
estimate of 13.8 million. With no additional changes in any other
supply and demand projections for 1998/99, estimated U.S. ending
stocks on July 31, 1999, are revised to 3.5 million bales, about
400,000 below the beginning level. However, lower demand this
season indicates a stocks-to-use ratio in 1998/99 of 24 percent,
compared with about 21 percent a year earlier.

Meanwhile, the 1998/99 projections of lower world consumption and
trade have been reflected in an estimated total U.S. cotton
demand falling to its lowest level in 10 years. U.S. mill use is
projected at 10.4 million bales in 1998/99, 8 percent below the
previous season. According to the Department of Commerce's Census
Bureau, actual cotton consumption during the first 7 months of
this season totaled slightly over 6 million bales, 9 percent
below the corresponding period in 1997/98. A positive sign in
mill use, however, has been the last 2 months' consumption, which
averaged about 10.5 million bales on a seasonally adjusted annual
rate basis.

U.S. cotton exports also have been dampened by the decline in
world consumption and the abundance of foreign stocks around the
globe. In addition, the loss of "Step 2" funding in mid-December
has made exporting U.S. cotton even more difficult in an
intensely competitive season. U.S. exports in 1998/99 are
currently projected at 4.2 million bales, compared with last
season's 7.5 million. According to USDA's Export Sales reports,
U.S. cotton shipments  reached 3.2 million bales by April 1, with
an additional 1 million in outstanding sales. Although the
combined shipments and outstanding sales equal the current
projection, additional sales will be needed to account for the
traditional "rollover" of some sales into the next marketing
year. To reach the 4.2-million-bale estimate, shipments to the
end of the season must average about 59,000 bales per week,
similar to shipments during March.

Foreign Production and Consumption Lower

Declines exceeding 2 million bales in 1998/99, compared with
1997/98, are expected in foreign production, consumption, and
imports. The largest of these expected declines is in
consumption; at 74.3 million bales, foreign consumption in
1998/99 is forecast 2.6 million below its 1997/98 level. In
percentage terms, this 3.4-percent decline in foreign consumption
is the largest since 1961. The next largest decline was 3.1
percent in 1974.

Foreign production in 1998/99 is forecast at 70.1 million bales,
about 2 million below its 1997/98 level. Foreign imports in
1998/99 are forecast at 24.4 million bales, 2.3 million below
their 1997/98 level. In contrast, foreign exports and ending
stocks are expected to rise in 1998/99. Foreign exports are
forecast at 19.6 million bales, up 600,000, and ending stocks are
forecast at 38.4 million bales, up 900,000. As a share of foreign
consumption, foreign ending stocks are expected to total 54
percent, compared with 52 percent in 1997/98.

April's USDA estimates of foreign production and consumption in
1998/99 are also lower than March's 1998/99 estimates. Compared
with last month, the 1998/99 foreign production estimate is
700,000 bales lower, and the consumption estimate is 300,000
bales lower. Ending stocks are also estimated lower than in
March, while the foreign trade estimates are much closer to their
March levels.

USDA's 1998/99 foreign production estimate fell in April from the
month before largely due to reductions in Pakistan and Australia.
Pakistan's estimated production in 1998/99 is 6.5 million bales,
compared with March's 6.9 million estimate for 1998/99, and
production of 7.2 million in 1997/98. Gin arrivals in Pakistan to
date are down even more than this 10-percent decline, and there
is widespread speculation that a sales tax increase in the last
year has resulted in under reporting. However, the crop does
appear to be lower as yield problems once again depress the
Pakistani crop.

Australia's 1998/99 crop is forecast 200,000 bales lower in April 
than the month before, but at 3.2 million bales is still expected
to be its largest ever. While good pre-season moisture assured
much better than normal prospects for dryland production in
Australia, elevated precipitation since planting has proven less
propitious for the crop overall.

USDA's 1998/99 foreign consumption estimate fell in April from
March largely due to reductions in Pakistan, Italy, and Germany.
Pakistan's expected consumption fell 100,000 bales to 7.1 million
due to a reduced crop there. While larger imports are expected to
make up for most of the decline in production, Pakistan's 1998/99
consumption is no longer expected to increase from the year
before.

Italy's and Germany's 1998/99 consumption was reduced 75,000 and
65,000 bales, respectively, in April due to reports of lower
imports of raw cotton than a year ago.  Press reports also
suggest lower output for Italy's textile and clothing sector. The
divergence into new markets of Turkey's former "suitcase" trade
in textiles with Russia may be a factor weighing down on
profitability and production for Western European mills. Also, 
Korea's 1998/99 consumption estimate was raised 50,000 bales this
month, and India's 1997/98 estimate was raised about 100,000
bales. Lower exchange rates in Asia are also increasing
competitive pressures on textile mills in other parts of the
world, including Europe.

U.S. Textile Imports and Exports Rise in January

January textile exports, at 329 million pounds (raw-fiber
equivalent), increased 1 percent from December, but were 12
percent below January 1998. Increased shipments of yarn, thread,
and fabric and apparel more than offset declines in home
furnishings and floor coverings. Cotton textile exports rose to
nearly 149 million pounds, 6 percent above December and 7 percent
above a year ago. Shipments to North American countries accounted
for 87 percent of the total.  Mexico, Canada, Honduras, and the
Dominican Republic remained the largest buyers of U.S. cotton
textiles and apparel. However, cotton exports to all other
regions were lower in January than a year earlier.

Textile imports totaled 860 million pounds, up 3 percent from
December and 8 percent above a year earlier. Overall, imports
increased for all major fibers, except wool, compared with a
month ago. Shipments of all major end-uses, except floor
coverings, were also higher than in December. Cotton imports, at
475 million pounds, accounted for 55 percent of total imports in
January and were 11 percent above a year earlier. Asian
textile-producing countries remain the most important source of cotton
textile imports, accounting for 54 percent in January 1999.
However, North America continues to increase market share of
cotton textiles, accounting for 35 percent of all cotton
shipments, compared with 31 percent in January 1998.

Wool and Mohair Production Decline in 1998

On March 25, USDA released the Wool and Mohair report. Final 1998
wool production was 49.2 million pounds, greasy, down 8 percent
from 1997. Sheep and lambs shorn totaled 6.43 million head, down
8 percent from a year earlier. The average price paid for wool
sold in 1998 was 60 cents per pound for a total value of $29.4
million, down 35 percent from $44.9 million in 1997.

Mohair production in the four major producing States (Arizona,
New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) during 1998 was 5.09 million
pounds, down 26 percent from 1997. Goat and kids clipped, at
705,000 head, were down 25 percent from a year ago. Average
weight per clip was 7.2 pounds, compared with 7.3 pounds in 1997.
The value of mohair production was $12.6 million, down 18 percent
from a year earlier.

Special Article:
Patterns in USDA's World Consumption Adjustments
by Stephen MacDonald

With 1998/99 world consumption adjusted downward 300,000 bales in
April, and 1997/98 adjusted upward 100,000 bales, the
year-to-year decline in world consumption is forecast at 4.1
percent. This would be the largest year-to-year consumption
decline since 1974, a factor which has undoubtedly played a large
role in keeping the A-index below 60 cents for such a large
portion of the year to date.

USDA's forecasted year-to-year change for 1998/99 world
consumption has declined relatively steadily since the first
detailed set of world forecasts were issued by USDA in July 1998.
At the time, USDA forecast that 1998/99 consumption would rise
0.3 percent from the year before. By November, this had changed
to a forecast of a 2.0-percent decline, and by February 1999, a
4.2-percent decline was foreseen.

During the last year, as is often the case, USDA has made a
number of multi-year historical revisions. These revisions make
direct comparisons of USDA forecasts from one year to the next
difficult, but since the historical revisions implemented for
various countries are virtually always consistent across years,
it is still possible to make indirect comparisons. USDA's
forecasts of annual change have exhibited a pattern during the
last few years that could have a bearing on interpreting the
current forecasts.

USDA's forecasts and historical data for foreign countries in
part come from reports by agricultural attaches and other embassy
personnel within these countries and in part from other sources,
such as macroeconomic indicators, trade sources, and publicly
available data. In many cases, revised consumption estimates are
sent to Washington only a few times per year. Unlike production,
annual consumption levels are determined by activity throughout
the entire year, rather than concentrated during a season of crop
production. While the variability of consumption is much smaller
than that of production, its turning points are less obviously
tied to observable factors like weather and pest activity.

USDA has been described as forecasting "conservatively," which
can be interpreted as giving a larger weight to recent history
when forecasting a forthcoming year. This would be a reasonable
interpretation of the change in USDA's forecasted change in world
1998/99 consumption; USDA gave greater weight to previous years'
consumption levels and trends than it did to industry reports of
reduced mill use, and gradually incorporated information of large
declines in various countries as actual trade and mill data
revealed the magnitude of the changes.

However, it is worth noting that since April 1995, the April
forecast of current marketing year consumption has been too
pessimistic for three out of four marketing years. This would
also be consistent with conservative forecasting because
consumption rose during this period after falling in the early
1990's. So, an assumption of the earlier trends continuing would
support pessimistic forecasts.

In April 1995, USDA forecast world 1994/95 consumption would fall
0.5 percent; currently it is estimated to have risen 0.3 percent.
In April 1996, 1995/96 consumption was forecast up 1.1 percent;
currently it is estimated up 1.6 percent. In April 1997, 1996/97
consumption was forecast up 1.4 percent; currently it is
estimated up 2.5 percent. April 1998 appears to diverge from this
trend since the forecasted decline for 1997/98 is now larger than
it was a year earlier. In April 1998, 1997/98 world consumption
was forecast down 0.5 percent; currently it is estimated down 0.9
percent. However, each of the preceding three estimates was first
revised more pessimistically at some point before later rising.
Many of USDA's current estimates for both 1997/98 and 1998/99
will be revised between April and July under the annual reporting
cycle guiding the majority of USDA's reporting embassies.

This tendency observed for 1995-97 is by no means statistically
significant. And the uniqueness of recent events compared with
earlier in the 1990's cannot be denied. So it is far from clear
what the  pattern of conservative forecasting means for the
longer term direction of revisions for 1998/99.


Estimated and Forecast Annual Change in World Consumption
-----------------------------------------------------------------
               ----------------Marketing year --------------
Publication date   94/95   95/96   96/97   97/98   98/99
-----------------------------------------------------------------
                                  Percent change
April 1995         -0.5
April 1996         -0.5    1.1
April 1997         -0.8    0.8    1.4
April 1998          0.2    1.5    1.9     -0.5
April 1999          0.3    1.6    2.5     -0.9     -4.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------
                                * * * 

Copies of the 1998 Cotton and Wool Yearbook (CWS-1998) are
available for purchase. For information, call 1-800-999-6770.

The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0499) will be released on
May 13, 1999.

*****************************************************************
Information Contacts:
Leslie Meyer (U.S. Cotton)              LMEYER@ECON.AG.GOV  
(202) 694-5307
Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton) STEPHENM@ECON.AG.GOV (202)
694-5305 
Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool) RSKINNER@ECON.AG.GOV (202)
694-5313 
*****************************************************************
U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   1998/99
                                                                                
                                       ---------------------------
Item                       1997/98     Feb        Mar         Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Upland:                                      Million acres
  Planted                     13.648    13.088      13.088     13.088         
  Harvested                   13.157    10.486      10.486     10.486
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           666       612         612        617

                                        Million 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks             3.920     3.822       3.822      3.822
  Production                  18.245    13.366      13.366     13.470
    Total supply 1/           22.178    17.537      17.528     17.627
  Mill use                    11.234    10.290      10.290     10.275
  Exports                      7.060     3.900       3.900      3.900
    Total use                 18.294    14.190      14.190     14.175
  Ending stocks                3.822     3.309       3.300      3.400
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio           20.9      23.3        23.3       24.0
  
Extra-long staple:                           1,000 acres
  Planted                        250       330         330        330
  Harvested                      249       237         237        237
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre         1,056       873         873        893

                                         1,000 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks                51        65          65         65
  Production                     548       430         430        440
    Total supply 1/              599       496         505        520
  Mill use                       115       110         110        125
  Exports                        440       300         300        300
    Total use                    555       410         410        425
  Ending stocks                   65        91         100        100
                                               Percent  
  Stocks-to-use ratio           11.7      22.2        24.4       23.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports.

WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   1998/99
                                        ------------------------------
Item                          1997/98     Feb        Mar         Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Supply:                                 Million 480-lb. bales
Beginning stocks
  World                        38.25     41.12      41.51       41.41      
  Foreign                      34.28     37.24      37.62       37.52
Production
  World                        91.60     84.86      85.29       84.68
  Foreign                      72.80     71.07      71.49       70.77
Imports
  World                        26.66     24.50      24.64       24.72
  Foreign                      26.65     24.15      24.29       24.37
Use:
Mill use
  World                        88.30     84.61      85.01       84.72
  Foreign                      76.95     74.21      74.61       74.32
Exports
  World                        26.54     23.95      23.93       23.84
  Foreign                      19.04     19.75      19.73       19.64
Ending stocks
  World                        41.41     41.60      42.17       41.92
  Foreign                      37.52     38.20      38.77       38.42

Stocks-to-use ratio                            Percent
  World                         46.9      49.2       49.6        49.5
  Foreign                       48.8      51.5       52.0        51.7
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates.

FIBER SUPPLY
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                1998           1999             1998
                                        -----------------                       
         
Item                            Dec       Jan        Feb         Feb 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Ginnings                     1,843       408         90           0         
Imports since August 1          23.2      28.3         NA         2.7
  Stocks, beginning           10,109    10,223      9,597      13,718
    At mills                     559       568        586         624
    Public storage             8,536     9,127      8,677      11,365
    CCC stocks                 1,946     3,530      3,488       2,820

Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Production                   760.9     837.6      803.6       837.6
    Noncellulosic              735.4     812.2      780.9       804.6
    Cellulosic                  25.5      25.4       22.7        33.0
    Total since January 1   10,269.7     837.6    1,641.2     1,739.1

                                     1998            1999       1998  
                              ----------------                      
                                 Nov       Dec       Jan         Jan
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Million pounds
Raw fiber imports              124.3      123.7     125.8       126.8
    Noncellulosic              118.2      117.5     120.3       117.0
    Cellulosic                   6.1        6.2       5.5         9.8
    Total since January 1    1,376.5    1,500.2     125.8       126.8

Wool and Mohair:                            1,000 pounds
  Raw wool imports, clean      4,933      4,343     6,151       8,790
    48's-and-finer             3,362      2,676     4,416       6,555
    Not-finer-than-46's        1,571      1,666     1,735       2,235
    Total since January 1     66,165     70,508     6,151       8,790

  Wool top imports               179        217        35         283
    Total since January 1      2,161      2,378        35         283
  Mohair imports, clean            0          0         0           2
    Total since January 1         11         11         0           2
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available.

COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                1998            1999            1998
                                         -----------------
Item                             Dec       Jan        Feb         Feb
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
All consumed by mills 1/         722        882       825         897      
  Total since August 1 1/      4,333      5,215     6,040       6,652
  SA annual rate 2/           10,247     10,490    10,484      11,414
  SA daily rate 2/              39.4       40.3      40.3        43.7
  Daily rate                    31.4       42.0      41.3        44.8

Upland consumed by mills 1/      711        870       813         887
  Total since August 1 1/      4,275      5,145     5,958       6,588
  SA daily rate 2/              38.9       39.8      39.7        43.2
  Daily rate                    30.9       41.4      40.6        44.3

Spindles in place              5,337      5,230     5,218       5,459
  Active spindles              5,017      4,896     4,859       5,152
    100 percent cotton         2,665      2,615     2,618       2,605
    100 percent manmade          753        744       752         788
    Blends                     1,599      1,537     1,489       1,759
                                             Percent 
Cotton's share of fibers        80.3       79.2      79.6        78.5

Manmade:                                    1,000 pounds
Total consumed by mills 1/    85,093    110,957   101,376     117,999
  Total since August 1 1/    530,967    641,924   743,300     862,063
  Daily rate                   3,700      5,284     5,069       5,900
    Noncellulosic staple       3,469      4,944     4,719       5,356
    Cellulosic staple            231        340       350         544
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted.

FIBER EXPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      1998          1999          1998
                               ----------------
Item                             Nov       Dec       Jan           Jan
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Upland exports                 781     1,007        110         667
    Total since August 1       1,703     2,710      2,820       3,050
  Sales for next season           15        22         27          63
    Total since August 1         149       171        198         300

  ELS exports                   13.7      19.9       46.4        67.0
    Total since August 1        39.5      59.4      105.8       196.6
  Sales for next season          5.3       4.4       11.9        16.1
    Total since August 1         9.4      13.7       25.6        27.2

Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Raw fiber exports             69.3      80.9       71.9        85.0
    Noncellulosic               73.3      67.4       69.2        82.4
    Cellulosic                   3.0       1.9        2.7         2.6
    Total since January 1      945.2   1,014.5       71.9        85.0

Wool and Mohair:                           1,000 pounds
  Raw wool exports, clean        7.0      55.0        9.0       381.8      
   Total since January 1     1,665.5   1,720.6        9.0       381.8
  Wool top exports             415.6     222.9      401.0       867.4
    Total since January 1    5,333.8   5,556.7      401.0       867.4
  Mohair exports, clean        316.1     404.7      256.0        45.3
    Total since January 1    1,869.1   2,273.7      256.0        45.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------

FIBER PRICES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         1999                   1998
                               ---------------------------     
Item                            Jan       Feb        Mar         Mar
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Domestic cotton prices:                    Cents per pound
  Adjusted World Price         41.71     42.11      42.64       54.31
  May'99 futures               60.39     58.72      61.09       75.17
  Dec'99 futures               63.35     60.32      59.80       72.78
  Upland spot 41-34            56.20     55.46      58.17       67.04
  Pima spot 03-46              97.66     94.50      86.37      101.64
  Avg. price received by:  
    Upland producers           58.30     56.00      54.40       63.90

  Mill delivered:
    Cotton
      Actual                   64.47     63.39      66.31       72.95
      Raw fiber equivalent     71.63     70.43      73.68       81.06
    Rayon staple
      Actual                  101.00    101.00     101.00      101.00
      Raw fiber equivalent    105.21    105.21     105.21      105.21
    Polyester staple
      Actual                   51.00     51.00      51.00       65.00
      Raw fiber equivalent     53.13     53.13      53.13       67.71

    Price ratios                               Percent
      Cotton/rayon              68.1      66.9       70.0        67.7
      Cotton/polyester         134.8     132.6      138.7       119.7

Northern Europe cotton quotes:            Cents per pound
  A Index                      55.78     56.26      56.74       68.41
  Memphis Territory               NQ        NQ         NQ       75.38
  California/Arizona           69.31     69.25      71.63       77.13
  B Index                      54.00     53.30      53.28       66.98
  Orleans/Texas                63.75     61.38      64.00       70.19
                
Wool prices (clean):                      Dollars per pound
 U.S. 56's                      0.70      0.70       0.65        1.18      
  Australian 56's 1/            1.42      1.33       1.36        1.70
 U.S. 60's                      0.95      0.95       0.95        1.50
  Australian 60's 1/            1.49      1.42       1.47        2.02
 U.S. 64's                      1.15      1.15       1.15        1.95
  Australian 64's 1/            1.58      1.50       1.57        2.47
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NQ = No quotes.
1/ In bond, Charleston, SC.

TEXTILE TRADE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     1998             1999      1998  
                            --------------------
Item                            Nov       Dec         Jan       Jan
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Imports:                                   1,000 pounds 1/

  Yarn, thread, and fabric   205,990   203,819     211,671    207,097  
    Cotton                    84,462    86,020      87,787     85,042
    Linen                     27,351    22,902      26,678     27,226
    Wool                       3,659     3,333       3,114      4,494
    Silk                         781       798         736        727
    Manmade                   89,737    90,765      93,357     89,608

  Apparel                    540,093   545,979     559,039    506,145
    Cotton                   332,027   342,541     340,605    297,480
    Linen                     14,864    14,661      18,818     16,475
    Wool                      15,286    12,432      12,371     12,616
    Silk                       9,860    12,037      15,148     15,272
    Manmade                  168,056   164,309     172,096    164,303

  House furnishings           49,228    48,220      51,081     47,980
    Cotton                    34,142    34,913      38,059     36,248
    Linen                        140       151         289        123
    Wool                          94       210          93         85
    Silk                         100        23          35         35
    Manmade                   14,752    12,923      12,605     11,489

  Floor covering              29,124    32,483      31,555     25,565
    Cotton                     3,411     4,934       5,134      3,919
    Linen                      3,801     4,966       4,331      3,215
    Wool                       8,942    10,080       9,752      8,790
    Silk                         545       572         627        335
    Manmade                   12,424    11,931      11,712      9,306

  Total imports 2/           830,876   837,867     860,142    794,594
    Cotton                   457,288   472,756     475,496    426,899
    Linen                     46,237    42,704      50,174     47,057
    Wool                      28,117    26,121      25,436     26,057
    Silk                      11,287    13,431      16,547     16,369
    Manmade                  287,946   282,854     292,489    278,212

Exports:                                  1,000 pounds 1/

  Yarn, thread, and fabric   166,282   138,136     150,355    155,831
    Cotton                    62,082    47,875      55,722     51,616
    Linen                      5,364     3,759       4,419      3,827
    Wool                       4,456     3,597       3,392      4,295
    Silk                       1,702     1,514       1,540      1,345
    Manmade                   92,678    81,391      85,282     94,747

  Apparel                    160,395   142,779     143,649    142,489
    Cotton                    94,881    85,027      86,649     81,153
    Linen                      1,798     1,642       1,270      1,352
    Wool                       7,595     5,861       6,097      8,052
    Silk                       3,689     3,217       3,235      3,706
    Manmade                   52,433    47,033      46,398     48,226

  House furnishings            8,375     7,591       6,083      5,409
    Cotton                     4,914     4,853       3,952      3,125
    Linen                        376       221         203        324
    Wool                          86        49          40         81
    Silk                         227        49          67        156
    Manmade                    2,773     2,418       1,821      1,723

  Floor covering              37,336    35,719      28,923     35,059
    Cotton                     3,114     2,881       2,404      3,498
    Linen                      1,754     1,538       1,483      2,162
    Wool                       3,341     2,989       2,352      2,619
    Silk                          96        73          82        156
    Manmade                   29,032    28,239      22,601     26,624

  Total exports 2/           372,627   324,441     329,205    339,090
    Cotton                   165,053   140,699     148,785    139,481
    Linen                      9,299     7,167       7,382      7,675
    Wool                      15,489    12,506      11,891     15,062
    Silk                       5,713     4,853       4,924      5,363
    Manmade                  177,073   159,215     156,224    171,510
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear.
 
U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    1998              1999      1998  
                            --------------------
Item                            Nov       Dec         Jan       Jan
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    1,000 pounds 1/

North America                200,712   208,620     165,973    132,522     
  Canada                      19,127    15,004      16,567     11,952
  Costa Rica                   8,645     8,971       6,174      5,819     
  Dominican Republic          20,830    23,326      10,407      7,989
  El Salvador                 11,871    15,822      11,931     10,154
  Guatemala                    8,321    10,771       8,425      5,728
  Haiti                        3,189     3,482       2,185      1,677
  Honduras                    23,952    30,958      23,473     17,616
  Jamaica                      5,586     5,137       3,647      4,174
  Mexico                      95,908    91,622      79,681     64,204
  Nicaragua                    2,783     2,988       3,094      2,828

South America                  7,715     8,375       7,325      7,747
  Argentina                       26         8          26         19
  Brazil                       1,246     2,334       2,635      3,559
  Chile                           12        32          26          4
  Colombia                     3,043     2,890       1,935      1,715
  Peru                         2,930     2,722       2,225      2,139
  
Europe                        23,589    24,174      24,278     26,844
  Estonia                        833       915         639        921
  France                         710       501         590        562
  Germany                        840       736         431        531
  Italy                        3,284     3,469       2,676      2,900
  Portugal                     2,438     1,969       1,518      1,539
  Russia                         845       674         708        734
  Spain                        1,368     1,207         817        782
  Turkey                       8,667     9,147      12,234     14,883
  United Kingdom               1,354     1,695         947        720
  
Asia                         209,396   215,159     256,332    237,305
  Bahrain                      1,055     1,143       1,017      1,181
  Bangladesh                  12,225    11,921      21,557     17,455
  China                       24,788    25,112      29,995     27,015
  Hong Kong                   27,959    27,821      28,763     33,760
  India                       25,158    26,605      30,873     24,931
  Indonesia                   10,875    10,460      14,897     15,982
  Israel                       2,353     2,702       3,065      3,036
  Japan                        1,145     1,476       1,294        864
  Macao                        5,471     6,464       6,756      5,700
  Malaysia                     4,768     5,942       6,576      6,011
  Nepal                        1,304     1,663       1,940      1,476
  Oman                         1,832     1,592       1,878      2,420
  Pakistan                    28,435    28,788      29,950     32,758
  Philippines                  9,495     9,197      12,030     11,141
  Qator                        1,101       977       1,208      1,697
  Singapore                    2,102     2,605       2,432      2,052
  South Korea                  7,016     7,132       9,250      6,918
  Sri Lanka                    7,190     6,389      10,083      8,243
  Taiwan                      12,237    12,335      13,726     11,781
  Thailand                    11,354    11,889      12,837     13,772
  U Arab Em                    1,600     1,631       2,590      2,352

Oceania                          836     1,394       2,427      1,858
  Australia                      675     1,011         625        772
  Fiji                            61       106       1,547        774

Africa                        12,803    14,226      13,469     14,886
  Egypt                        5,746     6,256       5,671      7,546
  Lesotho                      1,540     1,722       1,560      2,193
  Mauritius                    2,003     2,064       2,079      1,708
  Morocco                        982     1,263         900      1,104
  South Africa                   983       961       1,173        788
  Tunisia                         29        55          85         30
World  2/                    457,288   472,756     475,496    426,899
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding.

U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     1998           1999        1998
                              ----------------
Country                         Nov       Dec        Jan         Jan
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   1,000 pounds 1/
 
North America                143,118    123,835   129,639     112,449  
  Canada                      29,491     21,851    24,851      24,526
  Costa Rica                   7,603      5,177     6,177       7,056
  Dominican Republic          15,035     12,721    12,955       9,474
  El Salvador                  5,890      5,074     5,283       5,285
  Guatemala                    3,109      2,790     2,621       2,369
  Haiti                        1,329      2,123     2,022         944
  Honduras                    17,256     17,097    15,758      15,202
  Jamaica                      3,188      3,984     2,767       4,065
  Mexico                      58,666     50,938    55,796      42,245

South America                  3,598      3,650     3,203       5,056
  Argentina                      160        182       137         214
  Brazil                         433        314       404         317
  Chile                          527      1,022       949         562
  Colombia                     1,345      1,197     1,076       1,457
  Peru                           153        133        82          83
  Venezuela                      602        417       277       2,007

Europe                         8,246      5,114     7,789      11,479
  Belgium                      3,206        586     1,824       3,964
  France                         551        459       292         343
  Germany                        855        806       751       1,203
  Ireland                        114        145        90         106
  Italy                          356        239       760         375
  Netherlands                    376        497       695         618
  United Kingdom               1,789      1,233     2,551       3,411

Asia                           8,330      6,372     6,761       8,808
  China                          270        271       115         375
  Hong Kong                    1,506        877       718         976
  Israel                         847        534       690       1,588
  Japan                        2,617      2,510     2,954       2,973
  Philippines                    312        121       267         303
  Saudi Arabia                   643        513       527         476
  Singapore                      303        289       192         279
  South Korea                    478        285       323         235
  Taiwan                         235        221       149         239
  U Arab Em                      310        197       235         514

Oceania                          700        749       622         876
  Australia                      501        608       482         669
  New Zealand                    123         71        50         129

Africa                           801        784       617         641
  Egypt                           52         53         3          27
  Ghana                           43         13         2          27 
  Ivory Coast                     33         19        44          41
  Nigeria                        118        233       199          72
  South Africa                   331        179        84         115

World  2/                    165,053    140,699   148,785     139,481
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding.

ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COTTON ACREAGE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
State/          Actual       Actual      Projected
Region           1997         1998          1999 1/     1999/1998
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                          1,000 acres                    Percent

Upland:
  Alabama         535          495           550            111
  Florida         100           89           100            112
  Georgia       1,440        1,400         1,500            107
  N. Carolina     690          710           770            108
  S. Carolina     290          290           285             98
  Virginia        101           92            98            107
    Southeast   3,156        3,076         3,303            107
 
  Arkansas        980          920           960            104
  Louisiana       655          535           570            107
  Mississippi     985          950         1,100            116
  Missouri        395          370           370            100
  Tennessee       490          450           500            111
    Delta       3,505        3,225         3,500            109

  Kansas           12           17            29            171
  Oklahoma        200          160           225            141
  Texas         5,500        5,650         5,700            101
    Southwest   5,212        5,827         5,954            102

  Arizona         325          250           250            100
  California      880          650           570             88
  New Mexico       70           60            62            103
    West        1,275          960           882             92

Total Upland   13,648       13,088        13,639            104

Pima:
  Arizona          22           16            13             83
  California      185          200           250            125
  New Mexico       11            9             8             89
  Texas            32          105            34             32

Total Pima        250          330           305             93

Total All      13,898       13,418        13,944            104
-------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Planting intentions as indicated by reports from farmers.


END_OF_FILE