SUGAR AND SWEETENERS--SUMMARY                                  June 19, 1997
             Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department 
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The complete text of SUGAR AND
SWEETENERS (SSS-220) will be available within 1-2 weeks following release of
this summary.
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World Consumption To Exceed Production in 1997/98

The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) forecast for global sugar
consumption  in 1997/98, released May 29, calls for an increase of 1.8 percent.
The increase of 2.2 million metric tons, raw value (MTRV), to 125 million,
represents a continuation of a long-run trend increase in world sugar
consumption.  However, per capita world sugar consumption has been relatively
stagnant at just under 20 kilograms (refined) per year for many years.

The USDA forecast for world centrifugal sugar production in 1997/98 is 122.4
million MTRV,  unchanged from the release of May 13, except for the June 12 
revisions for the United States.  World production would be almost the same as
the revised 1996/97 estimate of 122.3 million and 1995/96 production of 122.3
million.  The 1996/97 estimate for world sugar production has been revised to
122.3 million MTRV, down 1.7 million from the March 1997 estimate of 124.0
million. 

World sugar trade in 1997/98 is projected at 36.2 million MTRV, up from 35.8
million in 1996/97.  World trade has been rising as a share of production, and
for 1997/98 would be almost 30 percent.  Brazil doubled exports from 2.9 to 5.8
million MTRV in 1997/98.  The European Union (EU-15), once the leading sugar
exporter, is forecast to export 5.15 million MTRV next year.  Prospects are for
Ukrainian exports to continue at 1.1 million MTRV, about the same as 1996/97
but down from over 3 million MTRV in 1990/91.  The top six exporters (Brazil,
EU, Thailand, Australia, Cuba, and Ukraine) account for 70 percent of total
exports.  

The world spot raw sugar price has averaged below the 
year-earlier level for all months since October 1995. However, the world price
has been rising from a low of 11.06 cents a pound in February 1997 to average
11.54 cents in May, and has been over 12 cents for the first 13 trading days in
June. The March 1998 futures price for raw sugar averaged 11.15 cents a pound
for the first 13 trading days in June. The world refined sugar price averaged
13.97 cents a pound during January-March 1997, down 3.80 cents from 17.80 cents
in January-March 1996.

U.S. sugar production in 1997/98 (October 1997-September 1998) is projected at
7.5 million short tons, raw value (STRV), up 3.4 percent from the revised
estimate for 1996/97.  Beet sugar production is forecast at 4.3 million STRV.
Sugarbeet acreage is up 7 percent, attributable to lower returns to alternative
crops, relatively strong sugar prices this year, and increases in factory beet
slicing capacity. The main impact of the flooding in the Red River Valley of
North Dakota and Minnesota on the sugarbeet crop was to delay plantings in
affected areas, and shift some sugarbeet acreage to drier land.  Planting
progress this spring was ahead of normal in many parts of the United States,
including parts of North Dakota and Minnesota.

U.S. 1997/98 cane sugar production is unchanged from last year at 3.2 million
STRV. This forecast assumes no change in area for Florida, but slightly higher
sugar output of 1.75 million STRV.  Louisiana sugar production in 1997/98 is
forecast at 975,000 STRV, down 7 percent from the near-record 1996/97 crop if
yields return to normal.  Sugar production in Hawaii has declined from over 1
million STRV in the mid-1980s to a projected 340,000 STRV  in 1997/98.  After a
poor crop in 1996/97, due in part to a 4-year drought, Texas is projected to
produce 110,000 STRV of sugar in 1997/98 following rains which have replenished
some reservoirs.  
 
U.S. sugar consumption (deliveries) for  1997/98 is forecast at 9.75 million
STRV, up 1.0 percent or 100,000 from the revised estimate for the current year. 
Anticipated growth is below trend due to increased use of corn sweeteners and
to increased imports of products containing sugar.  Per capita use, having
risen about 5 pounds over the last decade, would grow only marginally from 66.5
to 66.6 pounds (refined) a year.

U.S. 1996/97 sugar production is estimated at 7.25 million STRV,  4.05 million
from beets and 3.5 million from cane. Sugar consumption  for 1996/97 is
estimated at 9.65 million STRV, which would be an increase of 96,000 STRV or
1.0 percent over 1995/96.  

The raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for 1996/97 was set on September 13, 1996
at 2.54 million STRV.  In January, 220,000 STRV were canceled, so the final raw
sugar TRQ was 2.32 million STRV.  Current estimates of the TRQ shortfall are
70,000 STRV.  As of the beginning of June, 1.25 million STRV of the TRQ had
entered the United States, leaving approximately 1.21 million STRV yet to
enter.

Beginning stocks in  1997/98 are forecast at 1.58 million STRV, which would be
up 84,000 STRV from beginning stocks for 1996/97.  Stocks on April 1, 1997 
totaled 3.9 million STRV, compared with 3.3 million a year earlier. Beet
processors held 1.75 million STRV, 45 percent of the total, up 340,000 STRV
from a year earlier, reflecting in part a larger crop, but also a desire to
preserve stocks to fulfill sales commitments in the April-September period.  
 
U.S. raw sugar prices (nearby futures, c.i.f., duty-paid, Contract No. 14, New
York) averaged 21.60 cents a pound in the first 13 market days of June. The
price averaged 21.70 cents in May compared with 22.62 cents in the same month a
year earlier. Wholesale refined beet sugar prices (f.o.b. plant, Midwest
markets) have held at 28 cents a pound since March 1997, compared with 29.50
cents in May 1996.

U.S. production of  high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) in calendar 1997 is
projected to rise to 8.5 million tons, dry basis, up from 8.2 million tons in
1996. HFCS production has expanded with higher soft drink consumption, a new
factory, and increased capacity at other factories.  HFCS-55 production is
forecast at 5.4 million tons, up 300,000 tons and HFCS-42 at 3.1 million, up
25,000 tons.

List prices for HFCS will not appear in future issues of the Sugar and
Sweetener Situation and Outlook report. Instead, Midwest spot prices will be
published for HFCS-42. This price averaged 10.56 cents a pound, dry basis, for
February through May 1997, down almost 4 cents from the price which prevailed
from January through December 1996.  In 1995, the spot HFCS-42 averaged 15.50
cents a pound, dry basis.
 
Printed copies of the Sugar and Sweetener Situation and Outlook report will be
available in about a week. For further information contact Ron Lord (202) 219-0888, rlord@econ.ag.gov. Text of the full report also will be available
electronically. For details call (202) 219-0515.

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