8

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- i APPENDIX 8

- A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FO R LIFE

- CYCLE COST AND
PAYBACK PERIOD SPREA DSHEETS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

8- A.1 STARTUP

.............................................................................................................. 8-A-1 8-A.1.1 Liquid- Immersed Transformers Worksheet Overview

.......................................... 8-A-1 8-A.1.1.1 Options ................................................................................................. 8-A-1 8-A.1.1.2 Description

........................................................................................... 8-A-1 8-A.1.1.3 Summary

.............................................................................................. 8-A-2 8-A.1.1.4 Summary Results

................................................................................. 8-A-2 8-A.1.1.5 Capacity Costs

..................................................................................... 8-A-2 8-A.1.1.6 A & B Dist.

.......................................................................................... 8-A-2 8-A.1.1.7 Design Table

........................................................................................ 8-A-2 8-A.1.1.8 System Loads

....................................................................................... 8-A-3 8-A.1.1.9 Price Load Model

................................................................................. 8-A-3 8-A.1.1.10 Joint PDF

............................................................................................. 8-A-3 8-A.1.1.11 Utilities

................................................................................................. 8-A-3 8-A.1.1.12 LCC & Payback Calc.

.......................................................................... 8-A-3 8-A.1.1.13 Annual Energy Price Forecast

............................................................. 8-A-3 8-A.1.1.14 Discount Rate ....................................................................................... 8-A-3 8-A.1.1.15 Lifetime

................................................................................................ 8-A-3 8-A.1.1.16 Results – LLvNL

.................................................................................. 8-A-4 8-A.1.1.17 LL vs NL

.............................................................................................. 8-A-4 8-A.1.1.18 Forecast Cells

....................................................................................... 8-A-4 8-A.1.2 Dry -Type Transformers Worksheet Overview ...................................................... 8-A-4 8-A.1.2.1 Options ................................................................................................. 8-A-4 8-A.1.2.2 Description

........................................................................................... 8-A-4 8-A.1.2.3 Summary

.............................................................................................. 8-A-4 8-A.1.2.4 Summary Results

................................................................................. 8-A-5 8-A.1.2.5 Design Table

........................................................................................ 8-A-5 8-A.1.2.6 Demand & Usage ................................................................................. 8-A-5 8-A.1.2.7 LCC & Payback Calc.

.......................................................................... 8-A-5 8-A.1.2.8 Annual Energy Price Forecast

............................................................. 8-A-5 8-A.1.2.9 Discount Rate ....................................................................................... 8-A-6 8-A.1.2.10 Lifetime

................................................................................................ 8-A-6 8-A.1.2.11 Results – LLvNL

.................................................................................. 8-A-6 8-A.1.2.12 LL vs NL

.............................................................................................. 8-A-6 8-A.1.2.13 Forecast Cells

....................................................................................... 8-A-6 8- A.2 Basic Instructions for Operating the Life

- Cycle Cost Spreadsheets

...................... 8-A-68

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- 1 APPENDIX 8

- A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR LIFE

- CYCLE COST AND
PAYBACK PERIOD SPREADSHEETS

To execute the LCC spreadsheet, it is necessary for the user to have the appropriate hardware and software tools. DOE assumed the user has a reasonably current computer operating under the Windows operating system. The development team uses relatively new systems and has n ot defined the minimum system requirements. At a minimum, users need Microsoft Excel to execute the spreadsheet. For full functionality in running Monte Carlo simulations, users will need a copy of a spreadsheet add- in called Crystal Ball, in addition to Excel. Without Crystal Ball, one can still use the LCC spreadsheet model, but will not be able to examine inputs and outputs as distributions. Approximate results are provided through a sample calculation that uses average values for the inputs and outputs, as displayed in the “Summary” worksheet.

8- A.1 STARTUP
The LCC spreadsheet is a stored Excel file. It can be found on the DOE website at http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/distribution_transformer s.html. Open the file. (Each computer system will have a unique setup for loading a file. Users should refer to their software manuals if they have problems loading the spreadsheet file.) For users new to Excel and/or Crystal Ball, section 8.8.2 contains basic instructions for o perating the LCC spreadsheets.

8-A.1.1 Liquid

- Immersed Transformers Worksheet Overview
Each of the LCC spreadsheets for the five liquid- immersed transformer design lines (DLs) contains the following worksheets:

8-A.1.1.1 Options
This worksheet contains the variables used to create the spreadsheet options on the Summary worksheet.

8-A.1.1.2 Description

The Life

- Cycle Cost (LCC) spreadsheet is used to estimate consumer economic impacts of efficiency standards. It does this by calculating the present value impacts of two regulatory

sce narios. The first scenario is a regulatory base case in which no standard is imposed, and the second is a standard case where future purchases of an appliance must conform to a minimum energy efficiency performance standard.8

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- 2 8-A.1.1.3 Summary
This worksheet provides a summary of the LCC and PBP results for each candidate standard level (CSL). The spreadsheet/user interface is centered in the “Summary” worksheet. This worksheet contains a number of user-selectable options. These options, each with its own pull-down menu, are:

**•** Transformer Load Growth/Year

**•** Transformer Loading

**•** Electricity Prices

**•** Transformer Customer As & Bs

**•** Future Energy Price Trend

**•** Equipment Price Scenario

**•** Efficiency Standard Effective Date

Changing user-selectable options will produce average results shown on the “Summary,” i.e., results using the mean inputs. Because of the very nature of Monte Carlo mathematics, the average results will not be identical to the mean of the distribution produced from Monte Carlo Crystal Ball simulations, but w ill provide quick feedback reflecting nominal results to spreadsheet users. DOE conducted an example Monte Carlo run of 10,000 iterations to produce “Results

- LLvNL” which is shown graphically as “LL vs NL.” Selecting different standard levels in the “ LL vs NL” worksheet will produce a different graphical result on the “LL vs NL” sheet, as well as different average results on the “Summary” worksheet.

8-A.1.1.4 Summary Results
This worksheet contains the summary results ta bles and chart from the most recent simulation.

8-A.1.1.5 Capacity Costs
This worksheet contains utility capacity cost calculations for both regulated markets and markets with fully functioning capacity markets.

8-A.1.1.6 A & B Dist.
This worksheet contains utility A and B models and data derived from utility transformer bids.

8-A.1.1.7 Design Table
This worksheet contains the database of transformer design options. These are the results from the engineering analysis (Chapter 5). For each transformer design option these include : manufacture selling prices, and load and no-load loss coefficients. This worksheet also contains8

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- 3 transformer markup and cost parameters and , for the appropriate design lines, pole cost parameters.

8-A.1.1.8 System Loads
This worksheet contains the regional hourly electrical system load calculations as an input to the Price Load Model worksheet. This calculation is described in greater detail in Chapter 7.

8-A.1.1.9 Price Load Model
This worksheet contains the regional hourly electrical system price calculations as an input to the Joint PDF worksheet. This calculation is described in greater detail in Chapter 7.

8-A.1.1.10 Joint PDF
This worksheet calculates the load and system price of that load for the selected transformer and the probability of the transformer load being coincident with system peak. This calculation is described in greater detail in Chapter 7.

8-A.1.1.11 Utilities
This worksheet provides a listing of the utilities and the operating regions that were used to determine system prices.

8-A.1.1.12 LCC & Payback Calc.

This worksheet is used to estimate consum er economic impacts of efficiency standards. It does this by calculating the present value impacts of two regulatory scenarios. The first scenario is a regulatory base case in which no standard is imposed, and the second is a standard case where future purchases of an appliance must conform to a minimum energy efficiency performance standard.

8-A.1.1.13 Annual Energy Price Forecast
This worksheet contains regional electricity price trend data for the analysis period.

8-A.1.1.14 Discount Rate

This worksheet contains the discoun t rate analysis. I t also contains the transformer market share data.

8-A.1.1.15 Lifetime

This worksheet contains the transformer lifetime distribution.8

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- 4 8-A.1.1.16 Results – LLvNL

This worksheet contains the load loss and no- load loss results from the most recent simulation fo r each CSL. These data are used as inputs to worksheet LL vs. NL.

8-A.1.1.17 LL vs NL
This worksheet contains a visualization of the transformer design line’s design space. Superimposed over this space are the selected designs for both the base and standards case s.

8-A.1.1.18 Forecast Cells

This worksheet contains the statistical results from the most recent simulation.

8-A.1.2 Dry

- Type Transformers Worksheet Overview
Each of the LCC spreadsheets for the eight dry-type transformer design lines contains the following worksheets:

8-A.1.2.1 Optio ns This worksheet contains the variables used to create the spreadsheet options on the Summary worksheet.

8-A.1.2.2 Description

The Life

- Cycle Cost (LCC) spreadsheet is used to estimate consumer economic impacts of efficiency standards. It does this by calculating the present value impacts of two regulatory scenarios. The first scenario is a regulatory base case in which no standard is imposed, and the second is a standard case where future purchases of an appliance must conform to a minimum energy efficiency perfo rmance standard.

8-A.1.2.3 Summary
This worksheet provides a summary of the LCC and PBP results for each candidate standard level (CSL). The spreadsheet/user interface is centered in the “Summary” worksheet. This worksheet contains a number of user- selectable opt ions. These options, each with its own pull-down menu, are:

**•** Transformer Load Growth/Year

**•** Transformer Loading

**•** Electricity Prices

**•** Transformer Customer As & Bs

**•** Future Energy Price Trend

**•** Equipment Price Scenario8

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- 5 **•** Efficiency Standard Effective Date

Changing user-selectable options will produce average results shown on the “Summary,” i.e., results using the mean inputs. Because of the very nature of Monte Carlo mathematics, the average results will not be identical to the mean of the distribution produced from Monte Carlo Crystal Ball simulations, but will provide quick feedback reflecting nominal results to spreadsheet users. DOE conducted an example Monte Carlo run of 10,000 iterations to produce “Results -LLvNL” which is shown graphically as “LL vs NL.” Se lecting different standard levels in the “ LL vs NL ” worksheet will produce a different graphical result on the “LL vs NL” sheet, as well as different average results on the “Summary” worksheet.

8-A.1.2.4 Summary Results
This worksheet contains the summary results t ables and chart from the most recent simulation.

8-A.1.2.5 Design Table
This worksheet contains the database of transformer design options. These are the results from the engineering analysis (Chapter 5). For each transformer design option these include: manufactur e selling prices, and load and no-load loss coefficients. This worksheet also contains transformer markup and cost parameters and, for the appropriate design lines, pole cost parameters.

8-A.1.2.6 Demand & Usage
This worksheet contains the sample of transformer cus tomers that are used in the simulation . For each of those customers this worksheet contains: monthly electricity demand and
usage rates, seasonal marginal energy and demand prices, and A and B parameters.

8-A.1.2.7 LCC & Payback Calc.

This worksheet is used to esti mate consumer economic impacts of efficiency standards. It does this by calculating the present value impacts of two regulatory scenarios. The first scenario is a regulatory base case in which no standard is imposed, and the second is a standard case where future purchases of an appliance must conform to a minimum energy efficiency performance standard.

8-A.1.2.8 Annual Energy Price Forecast
This worksheet contains regional electricity price trend data for the analysis period.8

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- 6 8-A.1.2.9 Discount Rate
This worksheet contains the discount rate analysis. It also contains the transformer market share data.

8-A.1.2.10 Lifetime

This worksheet contains the transformer lifetime distribution.

8-A.1.2.11 Results – LLvNL

This worksheet contains the load loss and no- load loss results from the most recent simulation for each CSL. These data are used as inputs to worksheet LL vs. NL.

8-A.1.2.12 LL vs NL
This worksheet contains a visualization of the transformer design line’s design space. Superimposed over this space are the selected designs for both the base and standards cases.

8-A.1.2.13 Forecast Cells

This worksheet contains the statistical results from the most recent simulation.

8- A.2 Basic Instructions for Operating the Life

- Cycle Cost Spreadsheets

1. Once you have downloaded the LCC file from the Web, open the file using Exce l. At the bottom, click on the tab for sheet “Summary.” 2. Use Excel’s View/Zoom commands at the top menu bar to change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor. 3. You can interact with the spreadsheet by clicking choices or entering data using the graphical interface that comes with the spreadsheet. Select choices from the various user

selectable options. 4. Click the “Run” button to run the simulation using DOE’s parameters.

To produce custom sensitivity results using directly Crystal Ball, select Run from the Run menu (on the menu bar). To make basic changes in the Run sequence, including altering the number of trials, select Run Preferences from the Run menu. After each simulation run, the user needs to select Reset (also from the Run menu) befo re Run can be selected again. Once Crystal Ball has completed its run sequence, it will produce a series of distributions. Using the menu bars on the distribution results, it is possible to obtain further statistical information. The time taken to complete a run sequence can be reduced by minimizing the Crystal Ball window in Excel. A step

- by -step summary of the procedure for running a distribution analysis is outlined below:

1. Find the Crystal Ball toolbar (at top of screen).8

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- 7 2. Click on Run from the menu bar. 3. Select Run Preferences and choose either Monte Carlo or Latin Hypercube. a

4. To run the simulation, choose the following sequence (on the Crystal Ball toolbar): Run, Reset, Run Select number of Trials (DOE suggests 10,000).

5. Now wait until the program informs you that the simulation is completed.

DOE provides the following instructions to view the output generated by Crystal Ball:

1. After the simulation has finished, click on the Windows tab bar labeled Crystal Ball to see the distribution charts.

2. The LCC savings and paybacks are defined as Forecast cells. The frequency charts display the results of the simulations, or trials, performed by Crystal Ball. Click on any chart to bring it into view. The charts show the low and high endpoints of the forecasts. The View selection on the Crystal Ball too lbar can be used to specify whether cumulative or frequency plots are to be shown.

2a. To calculate the probability that a particular value of LCC savings will occur, either type 0 in the box by the left arrow, or move the arrow key with the cursor to 0 on the scale. The value in the Certainty box shows the likelihood that the LCC savings will occur.

2b. To calculate the certainty of the payback period being below a certain number of years, insert that value in the far -right box.

3. To generate a printed report, select Create Report from the Run menu. The toolbar choice of Forecast Windows allo ws you to select the charts and statistics in which you are interested. For further information on Crystal Ball outputs, refer to Understanding the Forecast Chart in the Crystal Ball manual.

a Because of the nature of the program, there is some variation in results due to random sampling when MonteCarlo or Latin Hypercube sampling is used.