COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK                                    August 13, 1998
August 1998, CWS-0498
               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is issued five times a year by the Economic 
Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-
5831.  Electronic release only; no printed copies available.  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

HIGHLIGHTS

o  U.S. Production Lowered for 1998/99
o  Foreign Production Steady, Consumption Higher
o  U.S. Mill Use Reduced
o  U.S. 1997/98 Exports Raised, 1998/99 Exports Lowered
o  Textile Exports Improve in May


U.S. Production Lowered for 1998/99

Based on USDA's first survey of the U.S. cotton crop, 1998 production is
forecast at 14.26 million bales, 5 percent below July's projection and 24
percent below 1997/98. In addition, the latest U.S. crop estimate is the
smallest since 1989. Upland production is forecast at 13.8 million bales,
while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is projected at 464,000 bales. During
the past 10 years, the August forecast has been below final production six
times and above four times. Past differences between the August forecast and
the final production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for
the 1998 U.S. cotton crop to range between 13.0 and 15.5 million bales.

Compared with last year, upland production is expected to decline in each
region, with the largest decrease occurring in the Southwest where drought has
taken its toll on the 1998 cotton crop. For the Southwest, upland production
is forecast to fall over 2 million bales from last season to 3.2 million, the
result of a record high abandonment rate of 36.5 percent in Texas and 37.5
percent in Oklahoma. As a consequence, Texas' harvested area of 3.3 million
acres is the lowest in this century, while Oklahoma's is a record low.
Meanwhile, Texas' production estimate of 3.1 million bales is the smallest
since 1989, and Oklahoma's crop is the smallest of the century.

In the Delta, production is expected to reach only 4.8 million bales, the
lowest since 1993, but it will remain the largest producing region in the
United States. Likewise, the Southeast crop is projected to approach 3.6
million bales, an output near the 5-year average. In the West, the usually
stable production of 1.2 million bales has been reduced this year due to the
cool, wet start this spring. Although recent weather improvements have helped
the crop in this region, the output is forecast at only 1 million bales,
similar to the 1995 season. In addition to upland, ELS production in the West
is expected to fall from a year ago. Based on the August survey, the ELS crop
is projected to decline 19 percent there. Despite an increase in Texas,
reductions in the West, where over 85 percent of the ELS crop is produced,
have reduced the crop expectations by 15 percent in 1998. 

While total area planted to cotton (12.9 million acres) is 7 percent below
1997, projected harvested area has shrunk to 10.7 million acres, a national
abandonment rate of nearly 17 percent. As a result of the severe drought in
the Southwest, the U.S. abandonment rate is the highest reported since 1933
when the rate reached 27 percent. Based on the harvested area, the 1998
national yield is placed at 640 pounds per acre, 40 pounds below 1997 and
slightly below the 5-year average.

Despite marked improvement in the California conditions, the overall U.S. crop
conditions have remained relatively stable and below those in recent history.
As of August 9, one-third of the cotton crop is in "poor" or "very poor"
condition, compared with only 11 percent last year. On the other hand, only 36
percent of the 1998 area is in "good" or "excellent" condition, compared with
59 percent in 1997. In contrast, the progress of the U.S. crop is running
ahead of both last season and the 5-year average. As of August 9, 89 percent
of the crop was setting bolls and 14 percent had bolls opening, compared with
87 and 6 percent, respectively, for 1997. An additional indication of the
advancement of the 1998 crop is ginnings prior to August 1. This season,
145,550 bales were ginned by August 1, compared with 2,200 last season and
48,150 in 1996.

Based on the August production forecast, carryin stocks estimated at 3.9
million bales, and 100,000 bales of raw cotton imports, total U.S. supply for
the 1998/99 marketing year is projected at only 18.3 million bales, the lowest
since 1985. As a result of the lower crop prospects and rising textile
imports, total use is projected to decline substantially from last season;
both cotton exports and mill use are forecast to fall. Total U.S. cotton
demand is estimated to reach only 15.7 million bales in 1998/99, nearly 17
percent (3.2 million bales) below 1997/98.

With these supply and demand estimates, U.S. cotton ending stocks for 1998/99
are projected to decline over 1 million bales from the beginning level to 2.6
million. While stocks are at a similar level to both the 1994 and 1995
seasons, the implied stocks-to-use ratio for 1998/99 is near 17 percent, 
several percentage points above these two seasons but four points below
1997/98. 

Foreign Production Steady, Consumption Higher

Foreign cotton production is expected to total 72 million bales in 1998/99,
virtually unchanged from the year before, while foreign consumption is also
expected to be virtually unchanged, at 77.5 million bales. However, foreign
consumption is forecast at its highest in nearly a decade as increases in a
wide range of countries--led by Pakistan, Mexico, and Brazil--are expected to
slightly offset declines in China and Indonesia. Foreign ending stocks are
expected to fall from 38 million bales to 35.8 million, but if China is
excluded, stocks are rising. Foreign ending stocks excluding China are
expected to rise 1 million bales to 20.4 million.

U.S. Mill Use Reduced

In 1998/99, U.S. mill use is expected to retreat below the 11-million-bale
level to 10.8 million bales, 5 percent beneath the 1997/98 estimate. Factors,
other than reduced supplies, which are likely to limit mill use this season
are expectations for slower growth in the U.S. economy and the continued
influences of the Asian crisis, which has provided relatively cheap cotton
textile and apparel imports into the United States; liberalization of textile
trade under NAFTA has also contributed to increased imports. In 1998, U.S.
cotton textile imports are likely to reach new heights, surpassing 1997s 5.1
billion pounds.

Mill use for 1997/98 was also lowered slightly to 11.35 million bales as a
result of recent Census data indicating the continued weakness in cotton
demand, including rising mill inventories. A preliminary estimate for July
1998 mill use will be available from Census later this month and will provide
a more accurate estimate for 1997/98.

U.S. 1997/98 Exports Raised, 1998/99 Exports Lowered

The U.S. 1997/98 export forecast was raised 100,000 bales this month to 7.5
million bales as exporters responded to the high Step 2 payment rates
available at the close of the marketing year. According to data in USDA's
Export Sales publication, U.S. cotton exports totaled 7.6 million bales.
However, the official source for USDA's historical U.S. export data is the
Bureau of the Census rather than Export Sales. Census data are currently
available through May 1998, and totals 300,000 bales less for August 1997
through May 1998 than comparable data from Export Sales. Differences between
these two sources are common for short periods of time, and it seems
reasonable to expect that Census data will eventually catch up with Export
Sales data. But it seems unlikely that the two data sources will match
completely by July given the size of the gap between them and the level of
recent monthly changes in the gap.

With U.S. exports of 7.5 million bales, the estimated U.S. share of world
trade in 1997/98 is 29 percent, the second highest since the 1970s. This is
indicative of the changes in the last 20 years in U.S. policies, competitor
policies, and competitor economies that have improved the base level of U.S.
competitiveness. The U.S. marketing loan program, economic reform in Brazil,
and disease and pest problems in Pakistan are among the factors that have
allowed the United States to maintain relatively strong exports despite
economic problems in importing countries, and are expected to support exports
in 1998/99 despite sharply reduced U.S. supplies from the year before.

A large decline is foreseen for U.S. exports in 1998/99, down 2.6 million
bales to 4.9 million. The ability of the United States to export is
constrained by low U.S. production, weak demand in Asia, and China's expected
reversion to net exporter status. Exports are expected to fall below 5.0
million bales for only the second time in more than 20 years. Exports are
forecasts down 35 percent from the year before, a sharply larger decline than
consumption and production. However, U.S. ending stocks are expected to
decline 33 percent, about the same as exports, and a relatively tight 17
percent stocks-to-use ratio is expected. This is critical, since tight U.S.
stocks are associated with higher U.S. prices, suggesting poorer export
competitiveness. However, changes in U.S. agricultural policy since 1985 have
significantly altered the amount of stocks necessary to support a given level
of use in the United States, so 1998/99's expected stocks-to-use ratio is
consistent with the forecast level of exports. And, as mentioned above, the
changes in competing countries in the last 20 years also permit the United
States to continue exporting as expected stocks/use falls below 20 percent.

Exports Compared With 1992 and 1982

The last two times (excluding the policy-transition year of 1985/86) that U.S.
exports were this close to 5.0 million bales were 1982/83 and 1992/93. These
years were the beginning of economic slowdowns; world GDP growth in 1982 and
1992 was the slowest in at least a decade. And both were years when China was
shifting away from importing; China was a net exporter in 1992/93 and became
one the year after 1982/83. Also, at 27 percent, expected exports as a share
of beginning supplies in the United States (beginning stocks + production) in
1998/99 are projected to be about the same as in 1992/93 and 1982/83. On
average during 1982-97, the United States has exported about 35 percent of its
beginning supplies.

Differences between these years include a stronger world economy in 1998.
World GDP growth, albeit constrained by Asia's difficulties, is generally
expected to be much stronger in 1998 than in 1982 or 1992 because of robust
economies in North America and Western Europe. Thus, increased textile demand
in these developed economies offsets some of the losses expected in textile
purchases by Asian consumers. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar has
strengthened significantly in the last 12 months, which was true in 1982, but
not in 1992. So, the macro-economic comparisons between these years are mixed. 

Because of relatively tight U.S. supplies, U.S. exports are expected to be
weaker than the earlier comparison years in several respects. The 1998/99
estimate represents a smaller expected share of world trade than in the
previous comparable years and a larger drop in trade share compared with the
average of the preceding 3 years. Also, the U.S. share of world (excluding
China and the NIS) cotton consumption is expected to be smaller. This
indicates that although the current 1998/99 export forecast might be construed
as optimistic given U.S. supply constraints, it is nonetheless conservative in
its implied performance on world markets, and given current consensus
expectations for world economic performance. This conservative approach is
appropriate given China's large expected shift net toward net exporting in
1998/99.

Textile Exports Improve in May

Textile exports rose in May to 390 million pounds. Exports were 3 percent
above April and nearly 11 percent higher than May 1997. Overall, larger
shipments of all fibers except silk occurred in May. Exports of all 
end-use categories were above a month earlier with apparel products and 
floor coverings accounting for most of the gain (42 and 43 percent,
respectively).  Cotton textile exports, at 168 million pounds, were up 3
percent from April and almost 12 percent above May 1997 shipments. Increased
cotton textile shipments to North America, South America, Europe, and Africa
more than offset slight declines to Asia and Oceania.

Textile imports declined for the second consecutive month to 813 million
pounds. Textile imports were 1 percent below April, but 10 percent above May
1997 shipments. Reduced imports of yarn, thread, and fabric and home
furnishings more than offset increased shipments of apparel products and floor
coverings. Lower shipments of linen and silk textiles offset slight increases
in other fibers. Cotton textile imports, at 446 million pounds, were about 1
percent above April and 14 percent above a year earlier. Cotton imports from
North American countries accounted for nearly all of the increase in textile
shipments.

Overall, the textile trade deficit continued to increase during the first 5
months of 1998. The deficit reached 2.14 billion pounds at the end of May,
compared with 1.81 billion last year. Cotton accounts for the largest share
(66 percent) as the deficit totaled 1.42 billion pounds, or the equivalent of
nearly 3 million bales of raw cotton. Despite stronger exports, the textile
trade deficit will likely set a record in 1998.


                              *     *    *

The next Cotton and Wool Outlook (CWS-0598) will be released on November 12.


******************************************************************************

ERS will publish only 5 issues of this report in 1998. Reports will be
released in March, May, July, August, and November. We will continue to
publish the Cotton and Wool Yearbook, which will be released in late November.
During the months when the Cotton and Wool Outlook reports are not published,
selected tables from the report will be updated and available on the Internet.
Check the ERS web site (http://www.econ.ag.gov) for these reports and for
other publications relating to cotton.

******************************************************************************

Information Contacts:
Leslie Meyer  (U.S. Cotton)             lmeyer@econ.ag.gov    (202) 694-5307
Stephen MacDonald (Foreign Cotton)      stephenm@econ.ag.gov  (202) 694-5305
Robert Skinner (Textiles and Wool)       rskinner@econ.ag.gov  (202) 694-5313

******************************************************************************

U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   1998/99
                                         ----------------------------
Item                          1997/98     Jun        Jul         Aug
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Upland:                                      Million acres
  Planted                      13.56     12.95      12.62       12.55
  Harvested                    13.02     11.73      10.93       10.45
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           673       625        640         634

                                        Million 480-lb. bales 
  Beginning stocks              3.92      3.95       3.89        3.84
  Production                   18.25     15.28      14.58       13.80
    Total supply 1/            22.18     19.26      18.52       17.74
  Mill use                     11.24     11.10      10.90       10.70
  Exports                       7.06      5.27       4.67        4.53
   Total use                   18.30     16.37      15.57       15.23
  Ending stocks                 3.84      2.86       2.95        2.54
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio           21.0      17.5       18.9        16.7
  
Extra-long staple:                           1,000 acres
  Planted                        250       267        314         314
  Harvested                      249       227        230         245
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre         1,056       899        887         911

                                         1,000 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks                51        49         59          59
  Production                     548       425        425         464
    Total supply 1/              599       474        484         523
  Mill use                       110       100        100         100
  Exports                        440       335        335         370
    Total use                    550       435        435         470
  Ending stocks                   59        44         54          58
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio           10.7      10.1       12.4        12.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates. 1/ Includes imports.


WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   1998/99
                                        ------------------------------
Item                          1997/98     Jun         Jul        Aug
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Supply:                                 Million 480-lb. bales
Beginning stocks
  World                        37.02     38.57      40.11       40.43
  Foreign                      33.05     34.57      36.16       36.53
Production
  World                        91.20     86.50      86.32       86.15
  Foreign                      72.41     70.80      71.32       71.89
Imports
  World                        26.94     26.50      26.35       26.06
  Foreign                      26.93     26.47      26.30       25.96
Use:
Mill use
  World                        88.31     89.50      88.41       88.27
  Foreign                      76.96     78.30      77.41       77.47
Exports
  World                        26.17     26.20      26.16       25.85
  Foreign                      18.67     20.60      21.16       20.95
Ending stocks
  World                        40.43     35.57      38.00       38.35
  Foreign                      36.53     32.67      35.00       35.75

Stocks-to-use ratio                            Percent
  World                         45.8      39.7       43.0        43.4
  Foreign                       47.5      41.7       45.2        46.1

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates.

FIBER SUPPLY
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         1998                    1997
                              -----------------------------
Item                             Apr      May         Jun        Jun
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Ginnings                         0         0          0           0
Imports since August 1           2.9      13.0         NA       402.8
  Stocks, beginning           10,231     8,606      7,205       6,901
    At mills                     703       733        745         702
    Public storage             8,187     6,832      5,591       5,138
    CCC stocks                 2,060     2,453        226       1,298

Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Production                   886.8      875.9     857.8       810.2
    Noncellulosic              852.7      843.8     829.6       775.2
    Cellulosic                  34.1       32.1      28.2        35.0
    Total since January 1    3,448.1    4,324.0   5,181.8     5,132.5

                                          1998                   1997
                              ----------------------------
                                Mar        Apr        May         May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Million pounds
  Raw fiber imports            119.5      127.8     135.0       110.3
   Noncellulosic               111.4      120.8     127.4       101.9
    Cellulosic                   8.1        7.0       7.6         8.4
    Total since January 1      324.4      452.2     587.2       559.3

Wool and Mohair:                            1,000 pounds
  Raw wool imports, clean      7,230      7,872     5,858       5,780
    48's-and-finer             5,579      5,742     3,604       3,852
    Not-finer-than-46's        1,651      2,130     2,254       1,928
    Total since January 1     21,410     29,282    35,140      33,995

  Wool top imports               204        218       152         163
    Total since January 1        548        766       917         731
    Mohair imports, clean          0          0         0           0
    Total since January 1          2          2         2           3
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available.


COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1998                   1997
                              ----------------------------
Item                             Apr       May        Jun         Jun
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
All consumed by mills 1/         956       934        919         905
  Total since August 1 1/      8,581     9,515     10,434      10,195
  SA annual rate 2/           11,092    11,160     10,937      11,191
  SA daily rate 2/              42.5      42.8       41.9        42.9
  Daily rate                    43.5      44.5       41.8        43.1

Upland consumed by mills 1/      946       924        910         896
  Total since August 1 1/      8,496     9,420     10,329      10,098
  Daily rate                    43.0      44.0       41.3        42.7
                                          1,000 Spindles
Spindles in place              5,440     5,440      5,445       5,572
  Active spindles              5,154     5,082      5,141       5,301
    100 percent cotton         2,637     2,595      2,639       2,596
    100 percent manmade          784       800        776         883
    Blends                     1,733     1,687      1,726       1,822
                                             Percent
Cotton's share of fibers        78.1      78.1       78.6        78.7

Manmade:                                    1,000 pounds
Total consumed by mills 1/   128,517   125,445    119,913     117,418
  Total since August 1 1/  1,122,628 1,248,074  1,367,987   1,370,536
  Daily rate                   5,842     5,974      5,451       5,591
    Noncellulosic staple       5,302     5,529      5,005       5,108
    Cellulosic staple            540       445        446         483
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = seasonally adjusted.

FIBER EXPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1998                   1997
                                -------------------------
Item                             Mar       Apr        May         May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Upland exports                 822       618        451         600
    Total since August 1       4,590     5,208      5,658       5,335
  Sales for next season          224       229        353         284
    Total since August 1         617       846      1,199         907
ELS exports                     65.5      51.4       26.4        31.1
    Total since August 1       321.5     372.8      399.3       425.1
  Sales for next season         55.0      15.7       13.2        25.6
    Total since August 1        94.2     109.9      123.1        98.2

Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Raw fiber exports             90.7      91.0       93.5        98.8
    Noncellulosic               87.1      88.0       90.0        89.6
    Cellulosic                   3.6       3.0        3.5         9.2
    Total since January 1    1,702.1   1,793.1    1,886.6       496.6

Wool and Mohair:                           1,000 pounds
  Raw wool exports, clean      247.2      23.1      178.4     1,032.4
   Total since January 1       659.7     682.8      861.2     2,339.4
  Wool top exports             544.3     836.7      375.8       802.5
    Total since January 1    1,683.1   2,519.8    2,895.6     3,059.3
  Mohair exports, clean         73.4     336.5       96.2        64.5
    Total since January 1      148.6     485.1      581.3       657.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------

FIBER PRICES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1998                   1997
                             -----------------------------
Item                            May        Jun       Jul          Jul
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Domestic cotton prices:                    Cents per pound
  Adjusted world price         51.39     55.43      56.06       66.80
  Oct'98 futures               69.24     76.08      76.31       75.26
  Dec'98 futures               70.48     75.51      73.73       74.28
Upland spot 41-34              65.21     73.50      74.18       71.83
  Pima spot 03-46             104.00    104.00     104.00      110.50
  Avg. price received by:
    Upland producers           63.50     68.50      68.20       67.50

  Mill delivered:
    Cotton
      Actual                   71.78     80.87      83.62       78.47
      Raw fiber equivalent     79.76     89.86      92.91       87.19
    Rayon staple
      Actual                  115.00    115.00     115.00      115.00
      Raw fiber equivalent    119.79    119.79     119.79      119.79
    Polyester staple
      Actual                   65.00     64.00      62.00       68.00
      Raw fiber equivalent     67.71     66.67      64.58       70.83

    Price ratios                               Percent
      Cotton/rayon              66.6      75.0       77.6        72.8
      Cotton/polyester         117.8     134.8      143.9       123.1

Northern Europe cotton quotes:            Cents per pound
  A Index                      64.61     68.06      69.36       81.47
  Memphis Territory            73.06     80.63      81.35       83.70
  California/Arizona              NQ        NQ         NQ       85.95
  B Index                         NQ        NQ         NQ       80.00
  Orleans/Texas                68.13     75.44      77.10       79.75

Wool prices (clean):                      Dollars per pound
 U.S. 56's                      1.23      1.06       1.00        1.50
  Australian 56's 1/            1.63      1.56         NQ          NQ
 U.S. 60's                      1.47      1.43       1.32        1.85
  Australian 60's 1/            1.85      1.64         NQ        2.10
 U.S. 64's                      1.77      1.70       1.70        2.55
  Australian 64's 1/            2.14      1.79         NQ          NQ
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
NQ = No quotes.
1/ In bond, Charleston, SC.

U.S. TEXTILE TRADE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1998                  1997
                            ------------------------------
Item                             Mar      Apr        May         May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Imports:                                   1,000 pounds 1/

  Yarn, thread, and fabric   232,089   240,309    219,985     225,808
    Cotton                   101,364   101,451     94,486      90,209
    Linen                     25,502    27,106     16,601      36,142
    Wool                       4,963     4,533      4,345       5,274
    Silk                         744       870        668         776
    Manmade                   99,517   106,348    103,885      93,407

  Apparel                    519,205   488,204    513,119     445,514
    Cotton                   318,581   295,775    309,517     264,791
    Linen                     12,353    11,359     10,944       8,967
    Wool                      13,659    13,988     16,985      14,964
    Silk                      11,457    10,143      8,833       9,200
    Manmade                  163,155   156,939    166,840     147,593

  Home furnishings            47,088    49,985     44,302      36,537
    Cotton                    36,157    38,088     33,935      27,409
    Linen                        213       149        159         146
    Wool                         167       163         85          74
    Silk                          17        17         29          32
    Manmade                   10,534    11,568     10,094       8,877

  Floor coverings             25,206    28,145     29,038      24,232
    Cotton                     3,390     4,195      4,279       4,527
    Linen                      3,295     3,496      3,926       2,878
    Wool                       7,670     9,247      9,586       6,789
    Silk                         471       585        539         482
    Manmade                   10,379    10,623     10,708       9,555

  Total imports 2/           829,827   814,084    813,358     739,033
    Cotton                   463,045   443,470    445,732     390,638
    Linen                     41,432    42,156     31,693      48,154
    Wool                      26,485    28,014     31,088      27,233
    Silk                      12,689    11,615     10,069      10,489
    Manmade                  286,175   288,829    294,776     262,518

Exports:                                 1,000 pounds 1/

  Yarn, thread, and fabric   186,440   172,322    173,515     167,879
    Cotton                    58,504    56,276     58,585      57,930
    Linen                      5,567     5,213      5,096       4,489
    Wool                       5,948     4,530      4,674       3,950
    Silk                       1,929     1,755      1,793       2,067
    Manmade                  114,492   104,548    103,367      99,443

  Apparel                    175,502   165,349    170,244     143,302
    Cotton                   102,385    99,332    101,578      84,715
    Linen                      1,566     1,703      1,678       1,674
    Wool                       9,853     8,667      8,851       7,514
    Silk                       3,753     3,742      3,359       4,023
    Manmade                   57,945    51,905     54,779      45,376

  Home furnishings             7,723     6,024      6,661       6,474
    Cotton                     4,593     3,827      3,928       3,924
    Linen                        362       271        334         267
    Wool                          95        61         88          98
    Silk                         191       135        180         133
    Manmade                    2,482     1,731      2,132       2,052

  Floor coverings             40,527    34,301     39,340      39,950
    Cotton                     3,950     3,100      3,678       3,697
    Linen                      2,111     1,635      2,004       2,235
    Wool                       3,603     3,071      3,392       2,452
    Silk                         160        84        121         127
    Manmade                   30,702    26,412     30,145      31,440

  Total exports 2/           410,474   378,383    390,026     357,888
    Cotton                   169,522   162,621    167,836     150,341
    Linen                      9,616     8,831      9,121       8,673
    Wool                      19,516    16,345     17,018      14,037
    Silk                       6,033     5,715      5,453       6,350
    Manmade                  205,787   184,869    190,599     178,487
---------------------------------------------------------------------
--- = An absence of trade. 1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes
headgear.

U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         1998                    1997
                             ----------------------------
Country                         Mar       Apr        May         May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                    1,000 pounds 1/

North America                195,226   178,772    193,052     156,272
  Canada                      18,023    16,727     18,375      13,630
  Costa Rica                   8,979     7,460      6,786       8,743
  Dominican Republic          18,337    18,645     19,820      16,419
  El Salvador                 14,883    13,117     14,378      11,024
  Guatemala                    9,063     7,653      7,806       6,824
  Haiti                        2,711     2,689      2,516       1,235
  Honduras                    28,113    21,402     25,689      21,541
  Jamaica                      7,525     6,660      6,053       6,340
  Mexico                      84,762    81,515     87,967      67,413
  Nicaragua                    2,420     2,489      3,260       2,575

South America                  7,898     6,865      6,317       8,366
  Argentina                       81        17         14          28
  Brazil                       3,280     2,597      1,486       3,098
  Chile                           14        17         22         212
  Colombia                     2,042     2,037      2,609       2,436
  Peru                         2,050     1,721      1,771       2,092
  
Europe                        30,229    26,703     25,038      24,391
  Estonia                        817       986        641         700
  France                         569       583        437         540
  Germany                        554       667        519         505
  Italy                        3,236     2,851      2,628       2,798
  Portugal                     1,566     2,090      2,889       2,433
  Russia                         918     1,089        867       1,090
  Spain                        1,249     1,054        978       1,171
  Turkey                      16,528    13,002     11,813      10,781
  United Kingdom                 884       824        929         924
  
Asia                         208,672   208,665    199,922     185,910
  Bahrain                        736       745        843         486
  Bangladesh                  13,242    12,782     12,840      11,820
  China                       23,270    25,747     25,863      34,487
  Hong Kong                   18,822    21,274     23,704      19,490
  India                       36,327    31,010     24,293      25,346
  Indonesia                   12,105    14,078     14,067      12,132
  Israel                       2,759     2,212      1,952       1,956
  Japan                          858     1,002        915       1,343
  Macao                        2,979     2,937      3,994       3,463
  Malaysia                     3,797     4,185      3,404       3,663
  Nepal                        1,849     1,592      1,050         901
  Oman                         1,539     1,336      1,182       1,426
  Pakistan                    31,315    33,445     32,688      23,662
  Philippines                  9,364     9,189      8,539       8,226
  Qatar                        1,099     1,369      1,393         944
  Singapore                    1,345     1,780      1,635       1,365
  South Korea                  6,864     7,271      7,452       5,714
  Sri Lanka                    7,864     7,079      5,789       6,506
  Taiwan                      10,989    10,081     10,787      10,542
  Thailand                    11,611    10,306      9,787       7,007
  U Arab Em                    3,306     2,786      2,089       2,590

Oceania                        2,076     1,939      1,589         982
  Australia                    1,213     1,174        905         595
  Fiji                           507       523        606         286
 
Africa                        11,278    14,575     14,599      10,231
  Egypt                        8,068     8,217      7,783       4,908
  Lesotho                      1,127       728      1,117       1,441
  Mauritius                    1,333     1,756      1,399       1,428
  Morocco                      1,093     1,464      1,415         566
  South Africa                   734       737        842         881
  Tunisia                        116        74         95         110

World  2/                    463,045   443,470    445,732     390,638
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding.

U.S. COTTON TEXTILE EXPORTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1998                  1997
                             -----------------------------
Country                         Mar        Apr       May         May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   1,000 pounds 1/

North America                136,994    135,570     140,564   119,624
  Canada                      27,281     28,180      27,444    25,563
  Costa Rica                   5,729      6,629       7,583     7,070
  Dominican Republic          16,174     14,699      16,662    17,306
  El Salvador                  8,347      6,250       6,364     4,013
  Guatemala                    3,587      3,795       2,845     3,774
  Haiti                        1,641      1,258       2,261     1,320
  Honduras                    21,633     18,524      20,152    12,601
  Jamaica                      4,956      4,177       4,934     4,562
  Mexico                      46,085     50,553      50,330    42,139

South America                  5,560      4,701       5,088     5,848
  Argentina                      458        119         269       425
  Brazil                         631        578         398       555
  Chile                          592        476         871       884
  Colombia                     1,607      1,679       1,665     1,775
  Peru                           123         99         113       262
  Venezuela                    1,581      1,325       1,280     1,340

Europe                        14,855     11,913      12,205    11,471
  Belgium                      3,408      2,675       3,294     3,517
  France                         510        676         757       885
  Germany                      1,505      1,486       1,012     1,302
  Ireland                      1,892      1,683         880        91
  Italy                          346        302         566       327
  Netherlands                  1,123        749         678       740
  United Kingdom               3,880      2,741       3,776     2,817

Asia                          10,029      8,583       8,112    11,036
  China                          129        140         279       189
  Hong Kong                    1,195      1,245         921     1,633
  Israel                         762        752         705       965
  Japan                        4,427      3,526       3,131     4,033
  Philippines                    517        359         389       385
  Saudi Arabia                   460        329         566       506
  Singapore                      451        314         357       475
  South Korea                    332        325         206       526
  Taiwan                         328        400         250       258
  U Arab Em                      415        281         249       577

Oceania                          915        928         873     1,157
  Australia                      620        766         620       897
  New Zealand                    113        117          90       174

Africa                           923        657         979       972
  Egypt                           25         12           6        46
  Ghana                            5         77          10        13
  Ivory Coast                     65         15          --         5
  Nigeria                        220        242         252       191
  South Africa                   294        112         150       286

World  2/                    169,522    162,621     167,836   150,341
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding.

ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES, 1998
-------------------------------------------------------------------
State/
Region         Planted     Harvested        Yield      Production
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           Lbs./          1,000
                   1,000 acres         harvested acre     bales

Upland:
  Alabama         460          455           550            521
  Florida          90           80           498             83
  Georgia       1,400        1,350           569          1,600
  N. Carolina     700          695           640            927
  S. Carolina     285          280           550            321
  Virginia         92           91           770            146
    Southeast   3,027        2,951           585          3,598

  Arkansas        860          855           764          1,360
  Louisiana       550          540           711            800
  Mississippi     930          915           813          1,550
  Missouri        350          330           727            500
  Tennessee       450          445           636            590
    Delta       3,140        3,085           747          4,800

  Kansas           15           14           501             15
  Oklahoma        160          100           528            110
  Texas         5,200        3,300           451          3,100
    Southwest   5,375        3,414           453          3,225

  Arizona         250          249         1,214            630
  California      700          695         1,001          1,450
  New Mexico       60           59           781             96
    West        1,010        1,003         1,041          2,176

Total Upland   12,552       10,453           634         13,799

Pima:
  Arizona          13           13           886             24
  California      185          184           939            360
  New Mexico       11           11           686             15
  Texas           105           37           843             65

Total Pima        314          245           911            464

Total All      12,866       10,698           640         14,263
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA's August Crop Production report.

END_OF_FILE