COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK               United States Department of Agriculture
CWS-0895                                            Economic Research Service
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Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board              August 11, 1995
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Record U.S. Cotton Crop Forecast

Based on August 1 conditions, the initial survey-based USDA forecast of 1995
cotton production is a record 21.81 million bales.  Upland production is
projected at 21.45 million bales, while the extra-long staple crop is
estimated at 358,000.  During the past 10 years the August forecast has been
above final production 5 times and below 5 times.  Past differences between
the August forecast and final production estimate indicate that chances are
two out of three that the 1995 crop will range between 20.1 and 23.5 million
bales.  USDA's production forecast was within the range of private forecasters
(20.7 to 22.6 million bales), and equal to the average estimate.

Upland production is expected to rise in each region in 1995, with the
Southeast providing the largest gain.  Southeastern States' production is
forecast at 4.6 million bales, 27 percent above last season.  Delta production
is projected at nearly 7.5 million bales, 8 percent above 1994.  In the
Southwest and West, a 7-percent increase is forecast with the crop at 5.5 and
3.8 million bales, respectively.

Recent hot weather across the cotton belt has allowed the 1995 crop to advance
rapidly from a slow start.  Cotton boll setting was 82 percent complete as of
August 6, up 10 percentage points from the week prior and 1 point ahead of the
5-year average.  Similarly, cotton boll openings, at 7 percent, equaled last
season and were 1 percent ahead of average.  However, the overall condition of
the crop remains below last year, with several States accounting for much of
the decline.  Thirty-two percent of Arizona acreage and 20 percent of the
Texas and Alabama crops were rated poor or very poor.  Only 56 percent of the
U.S. crop was rated good or excellent.

With the record cotton crop forecast and carryin stocks at nearly 2.5 million
bales, total supply for the 1995 marketing year is projected at 24.3 million,
5 percent above last year and the largest since 1966.  Total use, however, is
projected to decline 8 percent from 1994 to 19.2 million bales.  Domestic mill
use is likely to continue expanding as demand for denim remains strong and
cotton textile exports are expected to achieve a new record in 1995.  Raw
cotton exports, on the other hand, are projected to return to a more "normal"
level this season as foreign competition will likely be more intense. 
Overall, U.S. stocks are expected to more than double by season's end to 5.2
million bales.  However, the stocks-to-use ratio of 27 percent remains below
the target.

Foreign Production, Consumption, and Trade

The forecasts for foreign consumption and trade in 1995/96 were raised
slightly this month, while production was reduced.  With improved prospects
overseas and increased supplies expected at home, the forecast for U.S.
exports in 1995/96 was raised 200,000 bales to 7.7 million.  U.S. 1994/95
exports were revised down 200,000 bales to 9.6 million.

Foreign consumption for 1995/96 was raised marginally as better prospects in
Indonesia and the Czech Republic offset a reduction in Russia.  In total,
foreign consumption was raised 100,000 bales to 75 million.  Estimated 1994/95
consumption was increased almost 200,000 bales, to 72.7 million.

Expected production for 1995/96 was lower as the outlook weakened for crops in
Central Asia.  Difficulties with weather, irrigation supplies, and chemical
inputs are among the reasons for lower forecasts for Uzbekistan, Tajikistan,
and Turkmenistan this month.  With largely offsetting changes among the Franc
Zone countries, total foreign production was revised down nearly 300,000 bales
to 69 million.  Estimated 1994/95 production was revised up less than 100,000
bales to 65.7 million.

Forecasts for foreign trade changed even less with both 1995/96 imports and
exports revised slightly up this month.  Upward revisions in imports for
Brazil, Indonesia, and elsewhere were partly offset by a 100,000-bale decline
in China's imports.  China's imports were cut for 1995/96 as government
customs data revealed higher imports than expected for 1994/95.  China built
stocks through imports at an unprecedented pace during 1994/95, and a
significant deceleration is expected.  The forecast for foreign exports was
raised slightly with higher exports for the Ivory Coast, Mali, and elsewhere
largely offset by declines in Benin and Central Asia.

With a weaker outlook for foreign production, a stronger outlook for foreign
consumption, and increased expected U.S. supplies, the export forecast was
raised to 7.7 million bales.  The United States is expected to garner a 28-
percent share of world trade in 1995/96, well below the phenomenal 33 percent
estimated for 1994/95.  However, the U.S. trade share is still forecast well
above the average of the last 10 years--22 percent--and would be one of the
highest shares in the last 30 years.

Two major factors this year are favorable to U.S. exports.  One of them,
surprisingly enough, is total world trade.  With China, India, Pakistan,
Mexico, and Turkey importing less in 1995/96, world trade is contracting. 
However, excluding these countries, world imports are expected to increase
about 2 percent.  The other favorable development is smaller exports from the
former Soviet Union.  Net exports from the FSU are expected to drop 865,000
bales in 1995/96, the first decline since 1990/91, as production and beginning
stocks there drop and consumption rises.  However, while lower in 1995/96, the
FSU's 6 million bales of net exports will still exceed the 5.6 million shipped
in 1992/93, a very poor year for U.S. exports.

The major negative changes facing U.S. exports compared with last year include
much lower imports by our largest customer, China, and higher exports by an
array of competitors, including West Africa, Pakistan, Argentina, India,
Turkey, Paraguay, Australia, and Greece.  Also, the United States is unlikely
to see a repeat of 1994/95's 400,000 bales of shipments to India and Pakistan,
and can expect to ship several 100,000 bales less to Mexico and Turkey as
their crops rise.

Daily Mill Use Continues Lower

The daily average cotton mill consumption eased for the fourth consecutive
month in June to its lowest since December 1994.  Cotton mill use averaged
41,300 480-pound bales per day in June, down from a season high of 45,600
bales in February.  For the month of June, consumption totaled a preliminary
907,500 bales, down from over 1 million bales used in calendar-month May.

For the first 11 months (August-June) of 1994/95, cotton mill use totaled
10.45 million bales, compared with 9.60 million a year earlier.  During this
period, cotton's share of fiber use on the cotton system averaged 76.9
percent, compared with 1993/94's 76 percent.  On a seasonally adjusted annual
rate (SAAR) basis, the mill slowdown is evident as the SAAR declined to 10.79
million bales in June, the lowest since May 1994.  For the season, however,
the SAAR has averaged near the current USDA mill use estimate of 11.25 million
bales.

Similarly, manmade fiber use also declined in June to 138 million pounds,
compared with 149 million in May.  June's manmade consumption was also
slightly below a year ago.  During the first 11 months of 1994/95, the
seasonally adjusted daily use averaged 6.2 million pounds.  Total manmade
fiber use for August through June reached 1.5 billion pounds, 3 percent above
a year earlier.

Textile Trade Expanding

Similar to mill use, U.S. textile trade continues to expand.  According to the
latest available data, total textile imports reached 3.1 billion pounds during
the first 5 months of 1995, while exports totaled more than 1.2 billion. 
These trade levels are 14 and 13 percent, respectively, above a year ago.

By fiber, cotton and manmade textiles dominate trade, accounting for a
combined 85 percent of all textile imports and 93 percent of textile exports. 
Cotton imports for January through May 1995 totaled 1.6 billion pounds, 16
percent above last year, while textile exports reached 537 million pounds, 26
percent above a year ago.  Cumulative manmade textile imports were 1 billion
pounds and exports were 620 million.

Overall, the calendar year textile trade deficit continues to climb,
surpassing 1.8 billion pounds by May 1995.  Cotton accounts for the largest
share (58 percent) as the cotton textile deficit totaled nearly 1.1 billion
pounds, or the equivalent of more than 2 million bales of raw cotton.  With
the rise in cotton textile imports outpacing exports and mill use remaining
strong, total domestic consumption of cotton is likely to surpass calendar
year 1994's 7.9 billion pounds.  In 1994, per capita domestic consumption
exceeded 30 pounds, the largest since 1946.

Fiber Prices Mixed

Through mid-July, the average price received by upland producers slid to 80.5
cents per pound, compared with a revised June price of 86.3 cents.  During
July 1994, the average price was only 58.7 cents.  Upland spot prices fell in
July to 93.3 cents per pound, the first decline since last October.  In
contrast, the ELS spot price continued to climb, reaching nearly $1.37 per
pound, up from $1.33 in June and reflecting the tight stock situation of ELS
cotton in the United States.

Although upland cotton prices have declined recently, producers have forward
contracted a large share of their crop.  As of August 1, 36 percent of the
acreage had been contracted, compared with 30 percent in 1994 and only 7
percent in 1993.  By region, the West had contracted half of its acreage; the
Southeast, 44 percent; the Delta, 41 percent; and the Southwest, 25 percent. 
All percentages, except for the Southeast, are above a year ago.

Upland mill-delivered cotton prices decreased in July, the first decline since
October 1994.  During July, the average price was $1.00 per pound, compared
with $1.18 a month earlier and 76 cents a year ago.  Polyester staple prices
remained at 92 cents per pound for the second consecutive month.  Polyester
prices are at their highest level since January 1965.  Meanwhile, rayon prices
were revised upward back to January 1995.  In July, mill-delivered rayon
staple prices reached $1.25 per pound, up from the revised June figure of
$1.19.  The July average is well above the $1.02 posted a year ago.  With all
three fibers priced relatively high, cotton remains very competitive and will
likely benefit from further anticipated increases in manmade fiber prices.

As the new marketing year gets under way, 1995/96 northern Europe cotton
prices continue lower.  For the week ending August 10, the A Index averaged
83.5 cents per pound.  Six quotes are currently offered on the A Index with
the U.S. Memphis Territory quote the cheapest offering.  Central Asia was the
second lowest with the California/Arizona quote the fifth cheapest in the
Index.

Prior to August 1, less than the required three quotes on the B Index were
offering 1995/96-crop cotton and therefore an Index was not available.  Since
August 1, however, the B Index has averaged below 80 cents per pound.  Three
quotes are currently offered, with the Orleans/Texas quote the cheapest.

In addition, the adjusted world price (AWP) continued its decline in early
August.  For the week of August 11-17, the AWP equaled 68.93 cents per pound,
the lowest since early December.  A year ago, however, the AWP was near 65
cents.

The next issue of the Cotton and Wool Outlook will be released on
September 12, 1995.  For further information, contact Leslie Meyer at
(202) 501-8528, Robert Skinner at (202) 219-0836, John Lawler at
(202) 501-7162, or Steve MacDonald at (202) 219-1179.
U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
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                                                   1995/96
                                         ----------------------------
Item                          1994/95      Jun        Jul        Aug
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Upland:                                      Million acres
  Planted                      13.55     16.01      16.42      16.46
    Program                    11.62     11.36      11.36      11.36
  Harvested                    13.16     14.97      15.30      15.61
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           705       661        661        660
                                        Million 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks              3.30      1.63       2.20       2.42
  Production                   19.32     20.61      21.11      21.45
    Total supply 1/            22.64     22.26      23.33      23.87
  Mill use                     11.15     11.52      11.32      11.42
  Exports                       9.18      8.18       7.19       7.42
    Total use                  20.33     19.70      18.50      18.84
  Ending stocks                 2.42      2.65       4.96       5.17
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio           11.9      13.4       26.8       27.5
  
Extra-long staple:                           1,000 acres
  Planted                        169       188        189        190
    Program                       84        32         32         32
  Harvested                      166       186        187        188
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           974     1,000      1,000        916
                                         1,000 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks               227        75         55         34
  Production                     338       388        390        358
    Total supply 1/              568       468        450        402
  Mill use                       100        85         85         85
  Exports                        424       330        315        280
    Total use                    524       415        400        365
  Ending stocks                   34        43         40         27
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio            6.5      10.4       10.0        7.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates.  1/ Includes imports.


WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
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                                                   1995/96
                                        ----------------------------
Item                          1994/95      Jun        Jul        Aug
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Supply:                                 Million 480-lb. bales
Beginning stocks
  World                        27.29     28.61      29.45      29.84
  Foreign                      23.76     26.91      27.20      27.39
Production
  World                        85.32     89.00      90.79      90.83
  Foreign                      65.66     68.00      69.29      69.01
Imports
  World                        30.50     27.70      27.73      27.85
  Foreign                      30.48     27.67      27.70      27.83
Use:
Mill use
  World                        83.92     86.80      86.27      86.45
  Foreign                      72.67     75.20      74.87      74.95
Exports
  World                        29.17     27.20      27.72      27.97
  Foreign                      19.57     18.70      20.22      20.27
Ending stocks
  World                        29.84     31.10      33.90      34.01
  Foreign                      27.39     28.40      28.90      28.81

Stocks-to-use ratio                            Percent
  World                         35.6      35.8       39.3       39.3
  Foreign                       37.7      37.8       38.6       38.4
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Based on USDA estimates.
FIBER SUPPLY
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                                           1995                 1994
                                 -------------------------
Item                             Apr       May         Jun      Jun
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Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Ginnings                         0         0          0          0
Imports since August 1          12.4      14.7         NA        5.1
  Stocks, beginning            8,640     6,658      4,971      6,689
    At mills                     736       794        787        687
    Public storage             6,258     4,883      3,625      5,399
    CCC stocks                 1,318       862        613        797

Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Production                   823.1     864.9      841.3      828.1
    Noncellulosic              782.8     823.2      796.3      787.1
    Cellulosic                  40.3      41.7       45.0       41.0
    Total since January 1    3,244.7   4,104.5    4,945.8    4,907.9

                                           1995                  1994
                                 ------------------------
                                 Mar       Apr        May         May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Million pounds
  Raw fiber imports            103.3      88.6       97.5       97.4
    Noncellulosic               96.7      81.8       90.8       89.0
    Cellulosic                   6.6       6.8        6.7        8.4
    Total since January 1      287.3     376.1      473.5      426.5

Wool and Mohair:                            1,000 pounds
  Raw wool imports, clean     10,772     5,962     11,450      7,549
    48's-and-finer             7,929     4,327      8,028      6,001
    Not-finer-than-46's        2,843     1,635      3,422      1,411
    Total since January 1     28,935    34,897     46,348     45,423

  Wool top imports               605       330        305        214
    Total since January 1      1,556     1,886      2,191      1,638
  Mohair imports, clean            7         0          0          0
    Total since January 1         10        10         10          1
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available.


COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION
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                                           1995                 1994
                               ---------------------------
Item                             Apr       May        Jun       Jun
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Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
All consumed by mills 1/         879     1,006        908        945
  Total since August 1 1/      8,540     9,546     10,453      9,601
  SA annual rate 2/           11,231    10,984     10,790     11,013
  SA daily rate 2/              43.2      42.2       41.5       42.4
  Daily rate                    43.9      43.7       41.3       42.9

Upland consumed by mills 1/      869       996        898        938
  Total since August 1 1/      8,465     9,461     10,359      9,535
  SA annual rate 2/           11,109    10,875     10,681     10,933
  SA daily rate 2/              42.7      41.8       41.1       42.1
  Daily rate                    43.5      43.3       40.8       42.6

Spindles in place              7,238     7,157      7,129      7,690
  Active spindles              6,741     6,690      6,665      7,206
    100 percent cotton         2,954     2,922      2,887      3,071
    100 percent manmade        1,110     1,121      1,132      1,242
    Blends                     2,677     2,647      2,646      2,893
                                              Percent
Cotton's share of fibers        76.8      76.5       76.0       76.5

Manmade:                                    1,000 pounds
Total consumed by mills 1/   127,269   148,517    137,716    139,293
  Total since August 1 1/  1,219,676 1,368,193  1,505,909  1,457,383
  Daily rate                   6,363     6,457      6,260      6,332
    Noncellulosic staple       5,473     5,635      5,439      5,515
    Cellulosic staple            890       822        821        817
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Adjusted to calendar month.  2/ SA = seasonally adjusted.
FIBER EXPORTS
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                                          1995                  1994
                                 ------------------------
Item                             Mar       Apr        May        May
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Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Upland exports               1,310     1,048        639        831
    Total since August 1       6,646     7,694      8,333      5,196
  Sales for next season          217       116        179         89
    Total since August 1       3,104     3,220      3,399        253

  ELS exports                   81.9      56.5       45.7       23.5
    Total since August 1       255.7     312.2      357.8      269.7
  Sales for next season         75.4      14.1        8.3       31.2
    Total since August 1       133.9     147.9      156.2       73.2

Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Raw fiber exports             95.3      90.6       76.8       74.4
    Noncellulosic               87.8      83.1       72.3       71.5
    Cellulosic                   7.5       7.5        4.5        2.9
    Total since January 1      247.4     338.0      414.7      348.2

Wool and Mohair:                           1,000 pounds
  Raw wool exports, clean      423.7     979.3      964.6      311.3
   Total since January 1       966.5   1,945.8    2,910.3    1,541.4
  Wool top exports             888.9   1,009.1    1,111.6    1,161.1
    Total since January 1    2,707.5   3,716.6    4,828.1    4,291.3

  Mohair exports, clean        289.4     313.7      216.9      531.2
    Total since January 1    1,773.8   2,087.6    2,304.4    2,396.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------


FIBER PRICES
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                                           1995                 1994
                               ---------------------------
Item                             May       Jun        Jul       Jul
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Domestic cotton prices:                    Cents per pound
  Adjusted World Price         87.04     76.22      73.02      65.62
  Oct'95 futures               86.56     87.27      78.42      71.29
  Dec'95 futures               81.01     80.49      75.20      70.98
  Upland spot 41-34           105.38    106.96      93.28      71.71
  Pima spot 03-46             127.77    132.73     136.50      95.13
  Avg. price received by:
    Upland producers           82.60     86.30      80.50      58.70

  Mill delivered:
    Cotton
      Actual                  113.94    117.65     100.04      75.93
      Raw fiber equivalent    126.60    130.72     111.16      84.37
    Rayon staple
      Actual                  119.00    119.00     125.00     102.00
      Raw fiber equivalent    123.96    123.96     130.21     106.25
    Polyester staple
      Actual                   86.00     92.00      92.00      76.00
      Raw fiber equivalent     89.58     95.83      95.83      79.17

    Price ratios                               Percent
      Cotton/rayon             102.1     105.5       85.4       79.4
      Cotton/polyester         141.3     136.4      116.0      106.6

Northern Europe cotton quotes:            Cents per pound
  A Index                     115.13        NQ         NQ      81.68
  Memphis Territory           121.75    129.00         NQ      79.94
  California/Arizona          124.17        NQ         NQ      79.94
  B Index                     108.96    101.53      92.79      80.30
  Orleans/Texas               116.13    121.00         NQ      79.38

Wool prices (clean):                      Dollars per pound
  U.S. 56's                     1.88      1.77       1.75       1.28
  Australian 56's 1/            2.51      2.50       2.45       1.83
 U.S. 60's                      2.29      2.12       2.08       1.60
  Australian 60's 1/            2.71      2.73       2.61       1.95
  U.S. 64's                     2.95      2.85       2.61       2.30
  Australian 64's 1/            3.07      3.08       2.92       2.43
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available.  NQ = No quote.
1/ In bond, Charleston, SC.
TEXTILE TRADE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1995                   1994
                             -----------------------------
Item                             Mar       Apr         May        May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Imports:                                   1,000 pounds 1/

  Yarn, thread, and fabric   205,476   169,789    190,550    174,462
    Cotton                    81,711    72,595     84,068     71,163
    Linen                     47,675    27,596     29,708     31,112
    Wool                       3,787     3,990      3,998      4,906
    Silk                         685       599        742        811
    Manmade                   71,618    65,009     72,029     66,470

  Apparel                    381,936   311,642    391,331    329,408
    Cotton                   224,816   183,812    228,180    182,683
    Linen                     10,858     8,091     11,449     11,822
    Wool                      10,880     9,046     13,644     11,384
    Silk                      10,936     8,560      8,520     11,207
    Manmade                  124,446   102,133    129,539    112,312

  House furnishings           32,114    26,552     31,162     27,652
    Cotton                    23,439    19,381     22,959     20,428
    Linen                        269       177        372        159
    Wool                         147       103        113         96
    Silk                          20        16         17         18
    Manmade                    8,238     6,875      7,700      6,951

  Floor covering              25,402    24,705     24,918     19,953
    Cotton                     4,459     4,015      4,755      4,809
    Linen                      3,034     3,029      3,169      2,526
    Wool                       9,253     8,758      7,768      6,026
    Silk                         437       326        510        335
    Manmade                    8,219     8,578      8,716      6,257

  Total imports 2/           652,042   538,774    644,966    557,572
    Cotton                   338,263   282,622    343,117    281,938
    Linen                     61,940    38,991     44,799     45,748
    Wool                      24,239    22,115     25,785     22,697
    Silk                      12,078     9,501      9,790     12,373
    Manmade                  215,522   185,545    221,476    194,816

Exports:                                  1,000 pounds 1/

  Yarn, thread, and fabric   130,267   122,366    128,585    124,632
    Cotton                    44,774    41,364     44,506     38,404
    Linen                      3,194     3,116      3,126      3,307
    Wool                       3,388     3,527      3,463      3,565
    Silk                       1,509     1,531      1,416      2,011
    Manmade                   77,402    72,828     76,074     77,345

Apparel                      109,166    98,562    109,922     81,202
    Cotton                    68,573    59,893     66,491     50,049
    Linen                      2,164     2,094      1,828      1,652
    Wool                       4,079     4,351      4,808      3,472
    Silk                       1,919     1,900      1,518      1,438
    Manmade                   32,431    30,324     35,277     24,591

  House furnishings            6,124     5,027      5,239      6,500
    Cotton                     3,677     2,900      3,048      4,107
    Linen                        284       241        258        203
    Wool                          44        90         55         52
    Silk                         165       159        171         87
    Manmade                    1,954     1,636      1,708      2,051

  Floor covering              27,136    27,403     26,594     29,079
    Cotton                     3,288     3,363      2,437      3,473
    Linen                      1,136     1,140      1,214      1,218
    Wool                       1,540     1,462      1,174      1,626
    Silk 3/                      ---       ---        ---        ---
    Manmade                   21,173    21,438     21,768     22,762

  Total exports 2/           273,022   253,688    270,586    241,740
    Cotton                   120,363   107,566    116,521     96,081
    Linen                      6,789     6,601      6,433      6,390
    Wool                       9,073     9,455      9,520      8,738
    Silk                       3,593     3,590      3,106      3,536
    Manmade                  133,204   126,476    135,006    126,995
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent.  2/ Includes headgear.  3/ Absence of trade.

1995 ACREAGE, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES
-------------------------------------------------------------------

State/
Region         Planted     Harvested        Yield      Production
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           Lbs./          1,000
                   1,000 acres         harvested acre     bales

Upland:
  Alabama         620          615           550            705
  Florida         110          109           691            157
  Georgia       1,500        1,490           677          2,100
  N. Carolina     800          780           615          1,000
  S. Carolina     340          335           759            530
  Virginia        107          107           700            156
    Southeast   3,477        3,436           649          4,648

  Arkansas      1,060        1,000           826          1,720
  Louisiana     1,020        1,010           808          1,700
  Mississippi   1,500        1,460           819          2,490
  Missouri        420          415           729            630
  Tennessee       700          665           664            920
    Delta       4,700        4,550           787          7,460

  Kansas            3            2           408              2
  Oklahoma        370          325           325            220
  Texas         6,300        5,700           446          5,300
    Southwest   6,673        6,027           440          5,522

  Arizona         355          354         1,139            840
  California    1,200        1,195         1,165          2,900
  New Mexico       55           51           781             83
    West        1,610        1,600         1,147          3,823

Total Upland   16,460       15,613           660         21,453

Pima:
  Arizona          48           48           788             78
  California       95           95         1,036            205
  New Mexico       15           15           800             25
  Texas            32           30           800             50

Total Pima        190          188           916            358

Total All      16,650       15,801           663         21,811
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Based on the August Crop Production report.