COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK                                         June 12, 1995
            Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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COTTON AND WOOL OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic
Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. 
CWS--0695.  
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Average Start for Cotton Crop
 
The U.S. cotton crop is off to an average start this year.  Nationally, cotton
plantings were 85 percent complete for the week ending June 4.  This compares
with 90 percent last year and a 5-year average of 87 percent.  Most States
were complete or nearly complete with the usual exceptions of Oklahoma and
Texas.  Cotton plantings in Texas were 68 percent complete, compared with the
5-year average of 77 percent.  Oklahoma was further behind, however, at 36
percent planted versus an average of 69 percent.
 
Cotton conditions also lag a year ago.  In early June, only 58 percent of this
year's crop is in "good" or "excellent" condition.  This compares with 69
percent in 1994.  The difference from last year is most notable in the "fair"
category, where 37 percent of the crop is reported versus 27 percent in 1994.
 
Although less than an ideal start, the 1995 crop, in most parts of the United
States, has adequate time to make up ground lost to early-season weather
problems.  The current USDA cotton production projection for 1995 remains at
21 million bales.  In addition, domestic mill use is projected at 11.6 million
bales, while exports are expected to reach 8.5 million.  With total demand in
1995/96 projected to exceed 20 million bales, ending stocks could increase
about a million bales from this year's estimated ending level of 1.7 million.
 
Mill Use Slows
 
The extraordinary pace of cotton mill consumption experienced this season
slowed in April according to the latest U.S. Commerce Department data.  Based
on a calendar month, preliminary April cotton mill use eased to 876,000 bales,
the lowest since December 1994.  On a daily basis, April mill use equaled
43,800 bales per day, down from March's average of 45,500 bales.  Compared
with a year ago, however, April 1995's daily average was 1,900 bales higher.
 
Cotton mill consumption during the first 9 months of 1994/95 totaled nearly
8.54 million bales, compared with 7.71 million last season.  On a seasonally
adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis, April's consumption declined to 11.25
million bales.  However, the SAAR average for August through April is near the
current USDA mill use estimate of 11.4 million bales.
 
In addition, cotton's share of fiber use on the cotton system equaled 76.8
percent in April, up slightly from March.  For the season, cotton's share has
averaged just above 77 percent.  If this seasonal average holds, it will be
the highest in nearly 30 years.
 
Manmade fiber consumption declined in April to 127 million pounds, compared
with 153 million a month earlier.  April's consumption was also 5 percent
below a year ago.  The seasonally adjusted daily rate dropped to 6.2 million
bales, the lowest since September 1994.  Most of the decline resulted from
lower noncellulosic consumption.  However, manmade fiber mill use for August
through April totaled 1.2 billion pounds, 4 percent above last season.
 
Domestic mill consumption of wool also declined in early 1995, compared with a
year earlier.  Mill use during the first-quarter of 1995 totaled 38.3 million
pounds, nearly 6 percent below last year.  However, domestic mill use is
expected to remain relatively strong and total 150 million pounds, near last
year's consumption.  U.S. textile mills are depending more on raw wool imports
this season to offset lower production, due in part to the phasing out of the
wool support program.
 
Textile Imports and Exports Rise
 
Textile imports in March jumped 46.5 million pounds (8 percent) from February
to 652 million (raw fiber equivalent).  Imports of all fibers except silk
increased from a month earlier.  Cotton textile imports rose over 21 million
pounds (7 percent) with increases in all major end-use categories.  Manmade
imports rose nearly 18 million pounds, with the March increase largely
attributed to apparel products.
 
March textile exports rose to 273 million pounds, nearly 18 percent above
February.  Overall, textile exports rose in all major fibers and most major
end-use categories.  Yarn, thread, and fabric exports accounted for 48 percent
of total March exports.  Manmade textile shipments represented 49 percent of
the total and cotton, 44 percent.  Cotton textile exports, at 120 million
pounds, increased for the third consecutive month in 1995 and were nearly 30
percent above year-ago shipments.
 
The overall March textile trade deficit was 379 million pounds, with cotton
accounting for 57 percent of the total (218 million pounds).  The deficit
increased 10 percent from a year ago when it totaled 345 million pounds.  The
cotton trade deficit also increased slightly from a month earlier and was 4
percent above March 1994.
 
Foreign Cotton Production and Consumption
 
There were no changes this month in the projections for 1995/96 foreign
production, consumption, and trade.  Estimated 1994/95 foreign production was
raised 1.2 million bales, while consumption and exports were virtually
unchanged.
 
In 1995/96, foreign cotton production is expected to reach 68 million bales, 3
million higher than 1994/95.  A smaller increase--1.7 million bales--is
projected for foreign consumption, to 75.2 million.  While world trade is
expected to fall slightly, foreign ending stocks are expected to grow in
1995/96, from 26.9 million bales to 28.4 million.
 
June's changes in the 1994/95 estimates were dominated by revised production
in China and India.  China's State Statistical Bureau (SSB) published a
revised production number in their 1995 Statistical Survey of China.  USDA's
last estimate of 19.5 million bales was revised to match the SSB's estimate of
19.9 million, 16 percent above the 1993/94 crop.
 
India's 1994/95 crop was revised upward 600,000 bales as farmers apparently
released previously hoarded cotton.  Arrivals had been below year-earlier
levels, but they recently shot upward, and now stand above 1993/94.  The
1994/95 crop is now estimated at 10.2 million bales, compared with 9.6 million
a year earlier.
 
Estimates for 1994/95 production were also raised for Australia (125,000
bales) and Pakistan (100,000), but reduced for Cote d'Ivoire (35,000) and
Israel (28,000).
 
Consumption overseas in 1994/95 remains virtually unchanged this month as a
slight increase for Russia nearly offsets a small decline for China.  In each
case, textile production trends suggested the change.  Russia's textile
production apparently reached its nadir during the fall of 1994, and while a
large decline compared with 1993/94 still seems likely, the severity of the
decline has lessened.  China's textile production has also picked up,
according to recent yarn production data, but not as much as previously
anticipated.  China's 1994/95 cotton consumption was lowered 300,000 bales to
19.7 million.  This would be a 1.5-million-bale decline from the year before,
and the largest decline since 1961/62.
 
Foreign ending stocks in 1994/95 are now estimated to reach 26.9 million
bales, compared with 25.3 million a month ago.  Excluding China, estimated
foreign ending stocks rose less, from 16.4 million bales to 17 million.
 
Cotton Prices Mixed
 
U.S. cotton prices were mixed in May as the average price received by upland
producers declined to its lowest level since December 1994.  Through mid-May,
the reported price was 78.4 cents per pound, down from a revised April figure
of 84.5 cents.  Last May, the price equaled 69 cents.  Spot prices, on the
other hand, continued to move higher.  The upland spot price for base quality
cotton averaged above $1.05 per pound in May, while the ELS spot price
averaged about $1.28.
 
With cotton prices well above a year ago, upland producers have forward
contracted a good portion of their 1995 acreage.  As of June 1, 36 percent of
the acreage had been contracted, compared with 23 percent in 1994.  In
addition, this percentage is the highest since 1976.  By region, the Southeast
and West had booked 47 percent of their acreage; the Delta, 39 percent; and
the Southwest, 26 percent.
 
Mill-delivered upland prices were up slightly in May, averaging $1.14 per
pound, 28.5 cents above last year.  Meanwhile, polyester and rayon staple
prices have remained flat at 86 cents and $1.04 per pound, respectively. 
Polyester prices are 11 cents higher than May 1994.  The tight stock
situation, along with higher prices, have forced mills to slow their fiber
usage.  For cotton, this will likely continue until the cotton harvest gets
into full swing this fall.
 
The adjusted world price (AWP) continued to move lower in early June.  For the
week of June 9-15, the AWP equaled 75.67 cents per pound, compared with 76.33
cents a week earlier and 71.00 cents a year ago.  Meanwhile, "new crop" A
Index prices continued to average around 90 cents per pound.  For the week
ending June 8, the average equaled 90.25 cents, with 6 of the 14 styles
quoted.  Both U.S. quotes remain in the A Index, with Greece becoming the
cheapest offering during the aforementioned week.
 
In addition, "old crop" A Index prices have not been available since May 24,
as only three quotes have been reported.  On May 25, the eighth special import
(Step 3) quota was triggered.  Under this quota, which opened on May 31,
upland cotton must be purchased by August 28 and imported into the United
States by November 26.  This quota permits the importation of 104,758,692
pounds (218,247 bales) of cotton.  Since the first special import quota was
opened on April 12, only about 900 bales (480-pounds) of cotton have been
imported through June 4 under these special quotas.
 
The next issue of the Cotton and Wool Outlook will be released on
July 12, 1995.  For further information, contact Leslie Meyer at
(202) 501-8528, Robert Skinner at (202) 219-0836, John Lawler at
(202) 501-8525, or Steve MacDonald at (202) 219-1179.
 
U.S. COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
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                                       1994/95                 1995/96
                             ----------------------------
Item                            Apr       May        June        June
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Upland:                                      Million acres
  Planted                      13.56      13.55      13.55       16.01
    Program                    11.11      11.62      11.62       13.02
  Harvested                    13.16      13.16      13.16       14.97
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           705        705        705         661
                                        Million 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks              3.30       3.30       3.30        1.63
  Production                   19.33      19.32      19.32       20.61
    Total supply 1/            22.65      22.64      22.65       22.26
  Mill use                     11.22      11.32      11.32       11.52
  Exports                       9.61       9.80       9.80        8.18
    Total use                  20.83      21.12      21.12       19.70
  Ending stocks                 1.92       1.63       1.63        2.65
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio            9.2        7.7        7.7        13.4
Extra-long staple:                           1,000 acres
  Planted                        169        169        169         188
    Program                       84         84         84          54
  Harvested                      166        166        166         186
                                                Pounds
  Yield/harvested acre           975        974        974       1,000
                                          1,000 480-lb. bales
  Beginning stocks               227        227        227          75
  Production                     338        338        338         388
    Total supply 1/              565        567        570         468
  Mill use                        85         85         85          85
  Exports                        390        400        400         320
    Total use                    475        485        485         405
  Ending stocks                   80         72         75          53
                                               Percent
  Stocks-to-use ratio           16.8       14.8       15.5        13.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates.  1/ Includes imports.
 
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE ESTIMATES
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                                        1994/95                1995/96
                             ----------------------------
Item                            Apr       May        June        June
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Supply:                                 Million 480-lb. bales
Beginning stocks
  World                        29.62      27.42      27.54       28.61
  Foreign                      26.09      23.89      24.01       26.91
Production
  World                        83.80      83.54      84.71       89.00
  Foreign                      64.13      63.87      65.05       68.00
Imports
  World                        29.68      30.11      30.28       27.70
  Foreign                      29.67      30.09      30.26       27.67
Use:
Mill use
  World                        84.98      84.99      84.91       86.80
  Foreign                      73.68      73.59      73.51       75.20
Exports
  World                        28.69      28.90      28.83       27.20
  Foreign                      18.69      18.70      18.63       18.70
Ending stocks
  World                        29.27      27.01      28.61       31.10
  Foreign                      27.27      25.31      26.91       28.40
Stocks-to-use ratio                            Percent
  World                         34.4       31.8       33.7        35.8
  Foreign                       37.0       34.4       36.6        37.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on USDA estimates.
 
FIBER SUPPLY
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                                           1995                 1994
                                 -------------------------
Item                             Feb       Mar        Apr        Apr
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Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Ginnings                       110         0           0           0
Imports since August 1           9.1      11.2          NA         3.5
  Stocks, beginning           13,250    11,066       8,629      10,120
    At mills                     663       691         736         710
    Public storage            10,508     8,322       6,258       8,352
    CCC stocks                 3,111     2,090       1,318       1,475
 
Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Production                   813.4     879.5       814.4       831.8
    Noncellulosic              763.0     835.4       774.1       788.6
    Cellulosic                  50.4      44.1        40.3        43.2
    Total since January 1    1,606.5   2,476.3     3,319.4     3,079.0
 
                                           1995                  1994
                                 ------------------------
                                 Jan       Feb        Mar         Mar
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Million pounds
  Raw fiber imports             91.8      89.8       103.3        73.7
    Noncellulosic               85.4      84.2        96.7        64.1
    Cellulosic                   6.4       5.6         6.6         9.6
    Total since January 1       84.9     174.7       287.3       223.9
 
Wool and Mohair:                            1,000 pounds
  Raw wool imports, clean     10,441     7,722      10,772       7,683
    48's-and-finer             8,903     6,431       7,929       5,112
    Not-finer-than-46's        1,538     1,291       2,843       2,296
    Total since January 1     10,441    18,164      28,935      25,134
 
  Wool top imports               360       590         605         140
    Total since January 1        360       950       1,556         974
  Mohair imports, clean            4         0           7           1
    Total since January 1          4         4          11           1
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available.
 
COTTON SYSTEM FIBER CONSUMPTION
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                                           1995                 1994
                               ---------------------------
Item                             Feb       Mar        Apr        Apr
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
All consumed by mills 1/         912     1,048         876         880
  Total since August 1 1/      6,613     7,661       8,537       7,708
  SA annual rate 2/           11,523    11,606      11,250      10,726
  SA daily rate 2/              44.3      44.6        43.3        41.3
  Daily rate                    45.6      45.5        43.8        41.9
 
Upland consumed by mills 1/      902     1,037         867         872
  Total since August 1 1/      6,559     7,596       8,463       7,657
  SA annual rate 2/           11,397    11,483      11,133      10,637
  SA daily rate 2/              43.8      44.2        42.8        40.9
  Daily rate                    45.1      45.1        43.4        41.5
 
Spindles in place              7,274     7,252       7,229       7,838
  Active spindles              6,850     6,801       6,748       7,248
    100 percent cotton         2,972     2,974       2,956       3,080
    100 percent manmade        1,118     1,131       1,110       1,252
    Blends                     2,760     2,696       2,682       2,916
 
Cotton's share of fibers        76.9      76.7        76.8        75.8
 
Manmade:                                    1,000 pounds
Total consumed by mills 1/   131,299   152,770     127,232     134,476
  Total since August 1 1/    939,637 1,092,407   1,219,639   1,173,751
  Daily rate                   6,565     6,642       6,362       6,404
    Noncellulosic staple       5,690     5,791       5,474       5,487
    Cellulosic staple            875       851         888         917
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Adjusted to calendar month.  2/ SA = seasonally adjusted.
 
FIBER EXPORTS
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                                          1995                  1994
                                 ------------------------
Item                             Jan       Feb        Mar        Mar
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cotton:                                  1,000 480-lb. bales
  Upland exports               1,068     1,332       1,310         686
    Total since August 1       4,006     5,338       6,646       3,643
  Sales for next season            8       193         217          16
    Total since August 1       2,695     2,888       3,104         180
 
  ELS exports                   47.0      51.3        81.9        57.4
    Total since August 1       122.4     173.8       255.7       207.7
  Sales for next season         20.1      24.5        75.4         2.1
    Total since August 1        34.1      58.6       133.9         6.1
 
Manmade:                                   Million pounds
  Raw fiber exports             79.9      72.1        95.3        75.1
    Noncellulosic               74.2      66.9        87.8        72.8
    Cellulosic                   5.7       5.2         7.5         2.3
    Total since January 1       89.2     161.3       247.4       201.2
 
Wool and Mohair:                           1,000 pounds
  Raw wool exports, clean      190.8     351.9       423.7       161.1
   Total since January 1       190.8     542.8       966.5       764.2
  Wool top exports             636.5   1,182.1       888.9       654.7
    Total since January 1      636.5   1,818.5     2,707.5     1,875.6
 
  Mohair exports, clean        874.1     610.4       289.4       203.8
    Total since January 1      874.1   1,484.5     1,773.8     1,729.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
FIBER PRICES
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           1995                 1994
                               ---------------------------
Item                            Mar        Apr        May        May
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Domestic cotton prices:                    Cents per pound
  Adjusted World Price         95.83     94.53       87.04       71.57
  Jul'95 futures              100.53    101.72      104.81       76.27
  Dec'95 futures               77.43     78.51       81.01          NA
  Upland spot 41-34           104.20    104.94      105.38       79.30
  Pima spot 03-46             115.02    123.39      127.77       92.38
  Avg. price received by:
    Upland producers           86.50     84.50       78.40       69.00
 
  Mill delivered:
    Cotton
      Actual                  111.91    113.17      113.94       85.40
      Raw fiber equivalent    124.34    125.74      126.60       94.89
    Rayon staple
      Actual                  104.00    104.00      104.00      102.00
      Raw fiber equivalent    108.33    108.33      108.33      106.25
    Polyester staple
      Actual                   86.00     86.00       86.00       75.00
      Raw fiber equivalent     89.58     89.58       89.58       78.13
 
    Price ratios                               Percent
      Cotton/rayon             114.8     116.1       116.9        89.3
      Cotton/polyester         138.8     140.4       141.3       121.5
 
Northern Europe cotton quotes:            Cents per pound
  A Index                     110.63    114.55      115.13       86.09
  Memphis Territory           116.65    120.25      121.75       90.63
  California/Arizona          121.30    124.63      124.17       89.75
  B Index                     108.67    111.41      108.96       83.73
  Orleans/Texas               113.30    116.88      116.13       87.63
 
Wool prices (clean):                      Dollars per pound
  U.S. 56's                     1.63      1.86        1.88        1.28
  Australian 56's 1/            2.62      2.64        2.51        1.86
  U.S. 60's                     1.99      2.26        2.29        1.61
  Australian 60's 1/            2.70      2.80        2.71        1.92
  U.S. 64's                     2.65      2.88        2.95        2.26
  Australian 64's 1/            3.02      3.02        3.07        2.49
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available.
1/ In bond, Charleston, SC.
 
TEXTILE TRADE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          1995                   1994
                             -----------------------------
Item                             Jan       Feb         Mar        Mar
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Imports:                                   1,000 pounds 1/
 
  Yarn, thread, and fabric   207,274   174,571     205,476     200,741
    Cotton                    83,322    70,390      81,711      80,081
    Linen                     49,785    39,904      47,675      50,384
    Wool                       3,768     3,475       3,787       5,377
    Silk                         698       598         685         712
    Manmade                   69,700    60,204      71,618      64,187
 
  Apparel                    389,977   372,028     381,936     330,626
    Cotton                   219,992   216,721     224,816     191,704
    Linen                     15,729    13,455      10,858      11,025
    Wool                      11,028     9,858      10,880       8,281
    Silk                      14,211    12,046      10,936      13,852
    Manmade                  129,017   119,950     124,446     105,764
 
  House furnishings           31,796    30,542      32,114      29,056
    Cotton                    24,130    22,597      23,439      22,226
    Linen                        195       161         269         156
    Wool                         127        93         147         130
    Silk                           6        31          20          28
    Manmade                    7,338     7,660       8,238       6,516
 
  Floor covering              19,593    21,682      25,402      21,045
    Cotton                     3,791     3,312       4,459       5,995
    Linen                      2,866     2,734       3,034       2,590
    Wool                       5,733     8,100       9,253       6,166
    Silk                         367       475         437         298
   Manmade                     6,835     7,062       8,219       5,996
 
  Total imports 2/           655,998   605,543     652,042     587,770
    Cotton                   334,758   316,832     338,263     303,156
    Linen                     69,037    56,334      61,940      64,230
    Wool                      20,798    21,663      24,239      20,141
    Silk                      15,285    13,150      12,078      14,891
    Manmade                  216,119   197,565     215,522     185,352
 
Exports:                                  1,000 pounds 1/
 
  Yarn, thread, and fabric   112,118   114,017     130,267     129,933
    Cotton                    37,305    38,007      44,774      36,676
    Linen                      2,673     3,067       3,194       2,936
    Wool                       3,332     3,365       3,388       2,799
    Silk                         887     1,606       1,509       1,240
    Manmade                   67,921    67,972      77,402      86,282
 
Apparel                       75,380    89,926     109,166      79,253
    Cotton                    47,827    57,533      68,573      49,534
    Linen                      2,087     2,117       2,164       1,902
    Wool                       2,554     3,228       4,079       2,907
    Silk                       1,225     1,521       1,919       1,349
    Manmade                   21,688    25,528      32,431      23,561
 
  House furnishings            4,096     4,434       6,124       5,789
    Cotton                     2,498     2,742       3,677       3,451
    Linen                        163       149         284         246
    Wool                          40        52          44          63
    Silk                          73       107         165         165
    Manmade                    1,322     1,384       1,954       1,864
 
  Floor covering              26,558    23,688      27,136      27,935
    Cotton                     3,166     3,547       3,288       3,243
    Linen                      1,240     1,033       1,136       1,164
    Wool                       1,322     1,071       1,540       1,147
    Silk 3/                      ---       ---         ---         ---
   Manmade                    20,830    18,037      21,173      22,381
 
  Total exports 2/           218,453   232,317     273,022     243,227
    Cotton                    90,827   101,864     120,363      92,942
    Linen                      6,171     6,373       6,789       6,256
    Wool                       7,259     7,731       9,073       6,941
    Silk                       2,184     3,234       3,593       2,754
    Manmade                  112,011   113,115     133,204     134,334
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Raw fiber equivalent.  2/ Includes headgear.  3/ Absence of trade.
Note:  January and February revised.
 
                                    END-END-END