Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

March 2016

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Gulf of Maine Region

March 2016

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=F2BDD611

 Gulf of Maine Signifcant Events - December 2015–February 2016

Precipitation Sea Surface Temperatures

Regional Climate Overview - December 2015–February 2016

Winter sea surface temperature anomalies in 

the Gulf of Maine were substantally warmer 

than the winter long-term average over the 

entre study area. Temperatures over coastal 

areas of Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova 

Scota were 0.5°C (1°F) to 1.0°C (2°F) above 

normal. Of the coast of Massachusets, 

temperatures were up to 2°C (4°F) above 

normal. Temperatures were 1.0°C (2°F) to 

2.0°C (4°F) warmer than normal over deeper 

basins in the central Gulf of Maine and the 

entre Scotan Shelf. These warm anomalies 

contnue a region-wide contnuous warm 

surface ocean period that began in September 

2015.

December was extremely mild for the entre 

region. Temperatures were up to 6°C (11°F) 

above normal. The three states had a record 

warm December, as did numerous sites. The 

entre region was warm again in January, with 

temperatures up to 5°C (9°F) above normal. The 

warmest areas were in northern New Brunswick 

and Maine. In February, with the excepton of a 

brief Arctc outbreak, temperatures contnued 

to be above normal. Most areas were 1°C (2°F) 

to 5°C (9°F) above normal, with the warmest 

spots in northern Nova Scota and eastern 

Prince Edward Island. Winter (averaged over 

December, January, and February) was warm 

region-wide, with temperatures 2°C (4°F) to 5°C 

(9°F) above normal. The three states had their 

warmest winter on record, as did several sites, 

such as Caribou, ME, Concord, NH, Fredericton, 

NB, and Moncton, NB.

Sea surface temperature anomalies based on 1985–2014. 

Mean SST anomalies from NOAA AVHRR data. Credit: 

University of Maine School of Marine Sciences and NERACOOS

Temperature

Several major storms 

brought heavy 

precipitaton, strong winds, 

and fooding to the region 

during winter.

December precipitaton ranged from 110–

200% of normal for most of the region. Some 

areas of western Maine saw precipitaton 

amounts in excess of 200% of normal, 

while parts of Cape Breton, NS, saw less, 

from 75–90% of normal. January was drier, 

with most areas seeing 50–90% of normal 

precipitaton. A few spots in New Brunswick 

saw 25–50% of normal, while Cape Cod, MA, 

and parts of southern Maine saw 110–150% of 

normal. Numerous storms led to above-normal 

precipitaton for most areas in February. 

Precipitaton generally ranged from 110% to 

more than 200% of normal, with the wetest 

areas in northern Maine and New Brunswick. 

Winter precipitaton ranged from near normal 

to 175% of normal. 

Departure from Normal

Temperature and precipitaton normals based on 1981–2010. 

Canada and ocean precip data: Canadian Precipitaton Analysis.

U.S. precipitaton data: interpolated staton data.

Departure from Normal Percent of Normal

• February 24–25: The region received up to 20 cm (8 in.) of 

snow and up to 50 mm (2 in.) of rain. Freezing rain fell for 

up to 19 hours in parts of New Brunswick, and up to 1.8 

cm (0.7 in.) of ice accumulaton was reported in Maine. 

The storm also produced frequent lightning over parts 

of New England and New Brunswick. Wind gusts of up 

to 134 km/h (83 mph) downed trees and wires, resultng 

in tens of thousands of power outages and closed roads. 

Many sites set daily high temperature records on the 

25th. Yarmouth, NS, and Saint John, NB, set a new record 

for warmest day in February. Several sites also set new 

highest daily precipitaton records for February.

Many sites had their 

warmest December on 

record. With abovenormal temperatures in 

January and February 

too, some sites also had 

a record-warm winter. 

Atmospheric drivers such as El Niño and the Arctc Oscillaton played a role in the 

region’s mild and stormy weather this winter. Numerous signifcant storms impacted 

the region, with four of the most powerful described below. There were two main 

storm tracks: an ofshore track near Massachusets and Nova Scota and a track 

northwest of Maine and New Brunswick.

• January 13: A rapidly intensifying storm brought up to 51 cm (20 in.) of snow 

and wind gusts of up to 92 km/h (57 mph) to Maine and the Maritmes. 

Southern Maine experienced thundersnow, with snowfall rates of up to 15 cm 

(6 in.) per hour. A storm surge of more than 100 cm (3 f.) resulted in minor 

fooding along the east coast of New Brunswick. Many federal, provincial, and 

city services were closed. In Nova Scota, the Trans-Canada Highway was partally 

shut down and more than 12,000 customers lost power.

• February 8–9: A strong Nor’easter brought blizzard conditons to parts of 

Massachusets and southern sectons of the Maritmes. Winds gusted to 102 

km/h (63 mph), and snow totals were up to 43 cm (17 in.), with the highest 

amounts in Nova Scota. Many schools and government ofces closed. 

Transportaton services, ferry crossings between New Brunswick and Nova 

Scota, and numerous fights were cancelled. Minor to moderate coastal fooding 

occurred in Massachusets, with some roads temporarily impassable. The storm 

further eroded beaches damaged by storms in January. 

• February 15–17: Up to 15 cm (6 in.) of snow and 51 mm (2 in.) of rain fell in 

the region. Up to 6 mm (0.25 in.) of ice accumulated in parts of Maine. Wind 

gusts to 124 km/h (77 mph) downed trees and powerlines, and damaged 

houses. More than 20,000 customers lost power in Maine. Rain and snowmelt 

fooded roads, while ice jams caused fooding along the Kennebec River in 

Augusta, ME, and along the Salmon River in Truro and Bible Hill, NS. Lightning 

also accompanied the storm. Several statons in New Brunswick broke daily 

maximum temperature and/or precipitaton records.

Sea surface temperatures 

in the Gulf of Maine 

remained above normal 

during winter.
Regional Impacts - December 2015–February 2016

Regional Outlook - Spring 2016 Gulf of Maine Region Partners

Environment and Climate Change Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

NOAA Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

Northeast River Forecast Center

www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Regional Climate Services

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/rcsd

Gulf of Maine Research Insttute

www.gmri.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton System 

www.drought.gov

Cooperatve Insttute for the North Atlantc Region

www.cinar.org

Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment, Climate 

Network

www.gulfofmaine.org/climatenetwork

Northeastern Regional Associaton of Coastal and Ocean 

Systems

www.neracoos.org

University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences

www.umaine.edu/marine

Contacts

NOAA:

Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Samantha Borisof (samantha.borisof@cornell.edu)

Environment and Climate Change Canada:

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

819-997-2800 (long-distance charges apply)

enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca 

To receive this publicaton every quarter, sign up at htp://

www.gulfofmaine.org/2/climate-network-climate-outlook.

Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

March 2016 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=F2BDD611

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature and 

Precipitation

For March through May, NOAA’s Climate 

Predicton Center and Environment and Climate 

Change Canada are both calling for an increased 

chance of above-normal temperatures for the 

entre Gulf of Maine region. Both groups are 

predictng equal chances of below-, near-, or 

above-normal precipitaton in the region for 

spring.

Probability of above-normal (A)

Environment and Climate Change Canada map (above lef) 

produced on February 29. U.S. Climate Predicton Center 

map (above right) produced on February 18.

El Niño

While sea surface temperatures in the 

equatorial Pacifc Ocean peaked in late 2015, 

atmospheric and oceanic observatons during 

February indicated that the strong El Niño 

event contnues. El Niño conditons and impacts 

will weaken during spring, with a transiton 

to ENSO-neutral conditons by early summer. 

An El Niño is frequently followed by a La Niña. 

Most computer models indicate a transiton to 

La Niña is somewhat likely by winter 2016-17. 

(Above graphic courtesy: Internatonal Research 

Insttute for Climate and Society/NOAA). 

A

50

Seasonal Snowfall

December snowfall ranged from less than 75% of normal in Massachusets, New Hampshire, and 

southern Maine to more than 150% of normal in parts of New Brunswick and P.E.I. At the end of 

December, average snow on the ground in the Maritmes was near to above normal. January snowfall 

was 25–90% of normal for most of New England, New Brunswick, and P.E.I. However, Cape Cod, MA, 

and much of Nova Scota saw more than 125% of normal. Snow on the ground at the end of January 

was below normal in New Brunswick and P.E.I, but above normal in Nova Scota. In February, coastal 

New England and much of the Maritmes saw more than 110% of normal snowfall, while inland areas 

of New England saw less than 90% of normal. While snowfall was above normal, it did not remain on 

the ground for extended periods of tme due to warm temperatures. In the Maritmes, snow on the 

ground at the end of February was below normal. Winter snowfall ranged from 50–90% of normal for 

most of New England. In New Brunswick and P.E.I., winter snowfall ranged from 75–125% of normal, 

while Nova Scota and Cape Cod, MA, saw 50–175% of normal. 

Percent of normal snowfall for winter 

(accumulated from December to February). 

An ice jam in mid-February caused fooding 

along the Kennebec River in Augusta, ME. Ice out 

on the lower part of the river was earlier than 

usual. Courtesy: U.S. Geological Survey

Warm Winter

Mild temperatures during winter had numerous impacts. Some U.S. golf courses saw an increase in 

business in December, while a few Maritme courses opened earlier than usual this spring. Business 

slowed for winter recreaton venues and winter gear retailers. In fact, several ski resorts opened late 

or had limited trails open. The Mount Washington Auto Road in New Hampshire opened for guided 

auto tours in late December for the frst tme in (at least) 35 years. In the U.S., the warmth allowed 

some crops to be harvested later into December, but caused other plants to bloom early. The warm 

temperatures also caused maple sap to start fowing, leading to an early start for syrup producton. In 

early February, ice development around Prince Edward Island (P.E.I.) was about three weeks behind 

normal, which was good for marine shipping. Outdoor ice rinks in Charlotetown and Stratord, P.E.I. 

were closed in early February, while only one of eight rinks in Fredericton, NB, was operatng. The 

above-normal temperatures lef many lakes and waterways unfrozen or with unsafe ice conditons. 

Several ice fshing tournaments were cancelled or postponed in New Hampshire and Maine. Ice on 

the Saint John River at Fredericton broke up on February 21, which was the second earliest break 

up since 1825. In the three states, transportaton departments performed roadwork and contnued 

constructon projects longer into the season, as well as saved money on snow removal, fuel, and 

personnel costs. Home heatng costs were also down, in part due to the warm weather.

Spring Flood Potential

The potental for river fooding during spring is 

near to below normal for most of New England. 

In mid-March, river levels and soil moisture 

were near to above normal, but snowpack and 

snow water equivalent were below normal. In 

northwest Maine, where snowpack and river 

ice lingered, the river food and ice jam food 

potental is near to above normal. Very heavy 

rain can cause fooding at any tme of the year, 

even in areas that have litle to no snow on the 

ground. 

Map produced 

March 17 by 

NOAA.

Minor 

Flooding