Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Northeast Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|December 2017

 www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Northeast Region

December 2017

National - Signifcant Events for September–November 2017

Precipitation and Temperature Anomalies 

Regional - Climate Overview for September–November 2017

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

September 1–November 30, 2017

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

September 1–November 30, 2017

October

Highlights for the Northeast

During autumn, moderate drought conditons eased, 

but abnormal dryness lingered in some areas. The dry 

conditons mainly afected streamfow, groundwater, and 

some water supplies. See Impacts secton for details. 

The region experienced unusually hot temperatures of 

up to 94°F from September 23–27. Several sites had their 

latest-occurring heat wave (three or more consecutve 

days of at least 90°F) in the calendar year. It was Albany, 

NY’s frst recorded heat wave in astronomical autumn. 

The six New England states, as well as 11 major climate 

sites, had their warmest October on record. In additon, 

four states, as well as four major climate sites, had 

their warmest autumn on record. The unusual warmth 

afected fall foliage and led to a late fall freeze for most of 

the Northeast. See Impacts secton for details. 

New England and New York received up to 8.42 inches 

of rain from October 24–26, causing fash fooding. From 

October 28–30, a storm brought up to 6.38 inches of 

rain, up to 8.4 inches of snow, and wind gusts of up to 93 

mph to the Northeast, with the most signifcant impacts 

in New England. Nearly 1.5 million customers lost power 

in the Northeast, some for almost a week. Central 

Maine Power had its “largest number of outages in the 

company’s history.” Hundreds of schools were closed, 

with some already having to extend the school year 

farther into summer. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor from September 

5 showed 5% of the Northeast in a moderate 

drought and 8% as abnormally dry. Conditons 

deteriorated in September and most of October. 

The October 24 Drought Monitor showed 12% 

of the region in a moderate drought and 51% 

as abnormally dry. However, two late-month 

storms erased moderate drought and eased 

dryness, with the October 31 Drought Monitor 

showing 10% of the region as abnormally dry. 

Conditons varied in November and worsened in 

December. The December 21 Drought Monitor 

showed 3% of the region in a moderate drought 

and 20% as abnormally dry. NIDIS, NOAA, and 

the NRCC are partnering to launch a Drought 

Early Warning System (DEWS) in the Northeast. 

The Northeast received 92% of normal 

precipitaton during autumn. Ten of the twelve 

states were drier than normal. The Northeast 

had its 19th driest September since 1895 with 

62% of normal precipitaton. All twelve states 

received below-normal precipitaton, with New 

York and West Virginia ranking this September 

among their 20 driest. The Northeast had its 

10th wetest October with 149% of normal 

precipitaton. All twelve states were weter 

than normal. This October ranked among the 

20 wetest Octobers on record for eight states. 

November precipitaton was 66% of normal. 

All twelve states were drier than normal, with 

fve states ranking this November among their 

20 driest.

At 2.6°F above normal, the Northeast had its 

ffh warmest autumn since 1895. Four states 

had a record warm autumn, and the other 

eight states ranked this autumn among their 20 

warmest. The Northeast had its ninth warmest 

September on record at 2.9°F above normal. 

All twelve states were warmer than normal. 

This September ranked among the 20 warmest 

Septembers for eight states. It was the second 

warmest October on record for the Northeast 

at 6.3°F above normal. Six states had a record 

warm October, and the other six states ranked 

this October among their ten warmest. 

November was 1.4°F below normal, with all 

twelve states seeing normal or below normal 

temperatures. 

Drought in the Northeast

Normals based on 1981–2010

The contguous U.S. had its 10th warmest autumn on record with an average temperature of 

55.7°F, 2.1°F above the 20th century average. September's average temperature of 66.3°F was 1.4°F 

above average, and October's average temperature of 55.7°F was 1.6°F above average. The U.S. 

had its seventh warmest November with an average temperature of 45.1°F, 3.4°F above average. 

Globally, it was the fourth warmest September on record, the fourth warmest October, and the 

ffh warmest November. According to NOAA, November was "the 395th consecutve month with a 

global temperature at least nominally above the 20th century average. The 10 warmest Novembers 

have occurred during the 21st century." During autumn, the contguous U.S. received 6.43 inches of 

precipitaton, 0.45 inches below average. September precipitaton totaled 2.22 inches, 0.27 inches 

below average, and October precipitaton totaled 2.53 inches, 0.37 inches above average. The U.S. 

had its 19th driest November with 1.58 inches of precipitaton, 0.65 inches below average. 

September

U.S. Drought Monitor

December 21, 2017
Regional - Impacts and Updates for September–November 2017

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Northeast Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|December 2017 

 www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Winter 2017-18 Northeast Region Partners

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Ofces, Atlantc

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Ofce for Coastal Management

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov 

NOAA Research, Climate Program Ofce and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.research.noaa.gov

NOAA Natonal Sea Grant Ofce

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantc and Great Lakes

Regional Collaboraton Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton System

www.drought.gov

Consortum on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperatve Insttute for North Atlantc Research

www.cinar.org

Northeast Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org 

Mid-Atlantc RISA

www.midatlantcrisa.org

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature and 

Precipitation

A

Normal January–March 

average temperatures 

range from the teens in 

northern New England and 

northern New York to the 

40s in southern parts of 

Delaware and Maryland. 

For January–March 2018, 

NOAA's Climate Predicton 

Center (CPC) is calling for an 

increased chance of abovenormal temperatures (lef 

map) for New England, 

southeastern New York, 

southeastern Pennsylvania, 

New Jersey, Delaware, and most of Maryland. 

Equal chances of below-, near-, or above-normal 

temperatures were forecast elsewhere. 

The precipitaton outlook (botom map) calls for 

increased chances of above-normal precipitaton 

for an area stretching from West Virginia to 

Maine, an increased chance of below-normal 

precipitaton for southeastern 

Maryland, and equal chances 

elsewhere. Normal January–

March precipitaton ranges 

from less than 6 inches 

in portons of central and 

northeastern New York 

to more than 13 inches in 

southeastern Massachusets 

and higher elevatons in 

eastern West Virginia.

EC

33

Drier-than-normal weather contributed to 

below normal streamfow in parts of the region 

in September and much of October. A few 

waterways in New England were at near-record 

low fows in mid-October. Groundwater was 

also below normal in some areas, partcularly 

New England. In fact, there were some reports 

of shallow wells going dry in Maine in October. 

A few water companies issued voluntary water 

conservaton notces in mid-October. Aquarion 

Water Company asked its Connectcut customers 

to reduce indoor use and to stop using irrigaton 

systems and sprinklers. A press release stated

"the lack of precipitaton and increased 

irrigaton water demand, due to unseasonably 

warm weather, are reducing reservoir levels." 

The company's Greenwich system was at 48% 

of capacity compared to its average of 67%, 

while the Stamford reservoir was at 61% of 

capacity compared to its average of 71%. Due 

to declining water levels, the Pennsylvania 

American Water company asked customers in 

its Nazareth service area to reduce their water 

usage "to avoid a more serious situaton if the 

dry weather contnues." The dry conditons 

also contributed to elevated fre danger in 

New England and several wildfres in Maine in 

October, as well as decreased honey producton

in Maine.

Dry Conditions

October was extremely warm, with some sites 

being record warm and others ranking it among 

the fve warmest. Low temperatures on October 

8 and 9 were partcularly warm, with ten major 

climate sites having their warmest minimum 

temperature for October. In fact, Caribou, ME’s 

three warmest minimum temperatures for 

October were all set/ted in October 2017.

Warm, dry conditons during September and 

October caused foliage to peak later than usual 

and colors to be muted. The subdued display 

afected tourism in parts of the region. With 

leaves staying on the trees later than usual, 

several communites extended their leaf pickup 

programs.

The frst fall freeze arrived on November 10 or 

11 for much of the region, which was later than 

usual, in some instances by more than 3 weeks. 

With a freeze on November 10, Dulles Airport, 

VA, was one day shy of tying its record for latest 

frst frost. It was the frst tme on record (since 

1963) that both Dulles Airport and Washington 

Natonal, DC, had their frst freeze on the same 

date. New Brunswick, NJ, had a low of 20°F on 

November 11, which was the site's lowest frst 

freeze temperature on record (since 1896). The 

previous lowest frst freeze temperature was 

25°F.

Record Warm October

EC

B 33

33

40

A

La Niña

A: Above-normal

B: Below- normal

EC: Equal chances of 

above-, near, or belownormal 

#: Probability of aboveor below-normal

Above: October average temperatures ranged from 

2°F to more than 8°F above normal. 

Below: Fall foliage on Long Island, NY, on November 

5, 2016 (lef) compared to November 2, 2017 (right). 

Credit: Chris Stachelski. 

33

La Niña conditons were present in the 

equatorial Pacifc Ocean as of mid-December.

According to NOAA’s Climate Predicton Center, 

there is a greater than 80% chance that La Niña 

will contnue through winter 2017–18.

During a La Niña winter, the jet stream tends to 

be wave-like, with the actve storm track along 

the northern states. This increases the likelihood 

of cooler, stormier conditons. This La Niña is 

expected to be weak to moderate, so its impacts 

may be more variable and other factors may 

dominate the Northeast's weather paterns this 

winter. These factors include climate variability 

associated with the Arctc Oscillaton, the North 

Atlantc Oscillaton, and the Madden-Julian 

Oscillaton. These paterns are less able to be 

forecast far in advance compared to La Niña, 

meaning that it is uncertain how they will afect 

the upcoming winter season. Long-term climate 

trends can also play a role. For instance, the 

Northeast has an increased chance for warmerthan-normal temperatures primarily due to 

long-term climate trends. For more informaton, 

see the Northeast Winter Climate Paterns and 

Outlook document. 

A

B