HDR1011800201400913951600
OIL CROPS OUTLOOK                                           September 13, 1995
            Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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OIL CROPS OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research
Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  OCS-0995.  
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SOYBEAN YIELD FORECASTS DEFY EXPECTATIONS
 
In its September Crop Production report, USDA surprised many observers by
raising its U.S. average soybean yield forecast from 36.4 to 37.0 bushels per
acre.  This yield would be almost as high as in 1992, which had excellent
growing conditions.  Forecast 1995/96 soybean production is increased to 2,285
million bushels, which would make it the second-largest U.S. crop ever.  The
improvements were forecast in the northern tier of States.  With good yields
and considerable harvested area, 1995 production in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,
Minnesota, Ohio, Nebraska, and South Dakota would each rank among the top
three on record.
 
Except in Missouri (where many plants had not yet reached the pod setting
stage when the objective yield surveys were taken at the start of the month),
most of the major producing States had very healthy pod counts this year, and
in some cases were second only to years that set the State record soybean
yield.  The high pod counts illustrate the effectiveness of higher seeding
rates in recent years, even under suboptimal weather conditions.
 
However, a lack of rainfall during the hot spell has erased the soil moisture
surplus that existed early this season.  This has led to deteriorating crop
condition ratings and probably hurt soybean pod fill throughout the Midwest
and Delta regions.  For the week ended September 10, 51 percent of the U.S.
soybean crop was in good to excellent condition, compared with 74 percent for
last year's bumper crop.  Stress on the soybean plant during the reproductive
stage limits potential yields by decreasing the number of pods per plant, the
number of beans per pod, or seed size.  How much the latter two components
deviate from average values will not be known for sure until harvest begins
and will be reflected in future production reports.  While still behind
normal, crop progress was accelerated by this summer's heat so that reaching
maturity by a normal frost date is now not a major concern for most areas.  As
in 1993, this year's shortened growing season will likely not permit seed
sizes to develop as fully as in an extended season, such as 1992 and 1994. 
Shorter plants also could result in higher than normal harvesting losses.
 
On the other hand, high temperatures tend to improve oil extraction rates. 
This resulted in a higher projected oil extraction rate for 1995/96 to 11.25
pounds per bushel.
 
PROSPECTS FOR 1995/96 SOYBEAN EXPORTS UNCHANGED, MEAL MOVES UP
 
Despite the improved U.S. crop outlook, the U.S. soybean export forecast
remains unchanged at 800 million bushels (21.8 million metric tons). 
Continued stock accumulation in South America and strong export availabilities
of soybeans and products will likely constrain U.S. soybean exports in the
September-February.  The estimated year-to-year increase in South American
stocks (as of the end of August) is 2.1 million metric tons, with Brazil
reported to be holding record-large stocks.
 
Despite prospects for increased competition in both soybeans and meal from
South America, outstanding U.S. soybean sales for the 1995/96 marketing year,
as of August 31, are reported at a relatively robust 4.6 million tons.  While
aggregate sales as of this date are down from the previous year, sales to both
Japan and Taiwan are more than double last year's level as carryover sales
from 1994/95 were shifted over to 1995/96.
 
Stronger U.S. crush projections and slightly higher global meal consumption
underlie the increase in U.S. meal exports, now forecast at 6 million short
tons (5.44 million metric tons), down 7 percent from last year.  Stronger
expected prices for the soybean complex in 1995/96 don't appear to be enough
to ration global soybean meal consumption, projected in September at 87.4
million metric tons, up slightly from last month's estimate.  Continued high
grain and non-grain feed ingredient prices in the EU are supporting increases
in forecast 1995/96 soybean meal imports and consumption.  In Asia, meanwhile,
policy changes in Thailand, allowing increased market access for soybeans and
meal, prompted an increase in the import forecast for both in 1994/95 and
1995/96.
 
Of the 14-million-bushel rise in U.S. 1995/96 supply from last month, crush
was hiked 10 million bushels to 1,395 million.  The balance increased U.S.
1995/96 carryout stocks 5 million bushels to 330 million.  The same average
price range as last month, $5.50-$6.50 per bushel, is still expected.
 
1994/95 SOYBEAN USE ENDS WITH A FLURRY
 
U.S. soybean crushings were 108.6 million bushels in July, setting a July
record.  The strong crush performance so late in the crop year boosted USDA's
estimate of 1994/95 crush 5 million bushels from last month to 1,400 million. 
 
USDA raised its estimate of 1994/95 soybean exports to 845 million bushels.
The 20-million-bushel increase from the previous estimate is supported by
August shipments, as reported by U.S. Export Sales, of 1.4 million metric
tons, the highest August figure since 1986/87.  Although soybean export
inspections through the end of August (860 million bushels) have already
exceeded USDA's export forecast, inspections have been generally higher than
the official Census trade figures.  Through June, soybean export inspections
were running about 10 million bushels ahead of the Census data (760.5 million
bushels versus 750.2 million).  In 1993/94, total inspections for the year
finished 9.6 million bushels higher than the Census export data.
 
Carryout soybean stocks for 1994/95 have now dropped to 355 million bushels,
for a stocks-to-use ratio of nearly 15 percent.  Despite record production,
total use also set an all-time high, leaving stocks at a moderately
comfortable level going into 1995/96.
 
Estimated U.S. soybean meal production for 1994/95 went up 200,000 short tons
this month to 33.2 million.  The additional output was needed to satisfy
stronger than expected export demand from the EU.  Estimated exports of
soybean meal for 1994/95 went up 200,000 short tons this month to 6.45 million
tons.
 
U.S. soybean and soybean meal trade in 1994/95 benefited from lower soybean
and meal prices in 1994/95, as well as stronger economic growth in many
regions of the world, which boosted overall global oilseed consumption and
trade.  U.S. exports have also gained from a significant counter-seasonal
slowdown in South American exports of both soybeans and meal.  Brazilian
exports, in particular, have slowed with soybean exports over the June-August
quarter reportedly down nearly 40 percent from the previous year.  Argentine
soybean marketings have been slower, too, as Argentina needed to move a record
sunflowerseed crop first.
 
A larger crush lifted this month's 1994/95 soybean oil production estimate by
90 million pounds to 15,577 million pounds.  Exports of soybean oil increased
100 million pounds from last month to 2,725 million.  Recent sales of U.S.
soybean oil to both China and South Korea for shipment in 1994/95 underpin the
higher oil export outlook.  Up 4 percent from the August estimate, this
estimate is more than 75 percent higher than last year's exports of 1,529
million pounds.  Domestic disappearance of soybean oil was also raised to
13,000 million pounds.  The increase in total use caused expected year-ending
soybean oil stocks to dip to 965 million pounds, the lowest since September
1986.
 
******************************************************************************
Information Contacts:
Mark Ash         Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Fats and Oils    (202) 219-0712
Scott Sanford    Peanuts, Cottonseed                        (202) 219-0835
Jaime Casteneda  World Oilseeds                             (202) 219-0826
******************************************************************************
 
The next release of the Oil Crops Outlook is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET
Thursday, October 12.
 
Table 1--Soybeans:  U.S. supply and disappearance
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                     Supply                          Disappearance 
        --------------------------------  ------------------------------------
Year                                                     Seed,                
begin.     Beg.   Im-   Produc-  Total    Crush   Ex-    feed,    Total   End.
Sept. 1  stocks  ports   tion                    ports & resid.         stocks
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         -------------------------- Million bushels---------------------------
 
1993/94     292    6    1,871    2,170     1,276    589     96    1,961    209
1994/95 1/  209    6    2,558    2,773     1,400    845    173    2,418    355
1995/96 2/  355    5    2,285    2,645     1,395    800    119    2,314    330
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1/ Estimated.  2/ Forecast.
 
Table 2--Soybean meal:  U.S. supply and disappearance
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                 Supply                           Disappearance 
        ----------------------------     ------------------------------------
Year 
begin.      Beg.    Produc-   Total      Domestic   Ex-     Total    End.
Oct. 1    stocks     tion                           ports           stocks
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         ------------------------------1,000 tons-----------------------------
 
1993/94     204     30,514    30,788       25,283   5,356   30,638    150
1994/95 1/  150     33,215    33,425       26,725   6,450   33,175    250
1995/96 2/  250     33,040    33,350       27,100   6,000   33,100    250
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1/ Estimated.  2/ Forecast.
 
Table 3--Soybean oil:  U.S. supply and disappearance
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                 Supply                           Disappearance 
        ----------------------------     ------------------------------------
Year 
begin.       Beg.   Produc-   Total     Domestic  Ex-     Total     End.
Oct. 1     stocks    tion                         ports            stocks
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         -------------------------- Million pounds---------------------------
 
1993/94     1,555   13,951   15,574       12,941   1,529   14,471   1,103
1994/95 1/  1,103   15,577   16,690       13,000   2,725   15,725     965
1995/96 2/    965   15,695   16,670       13,050   2,205   15,255   1,415
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1/ Estimated.  2/ Forecast.
 
Table 4--Oilseeds prices received by farmers, U.S.
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Marketing      Soy-  Cotton-  Sun- 
 year         beans   seed   flowers  Peanuts  Flaxseed
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              $/bu.   $/ton   $/cwt   Cents/lb  $/bu.
                                     
1990/91        5.74  121.00    10.80    34.70   5.27
1991/92        5.58   71.00     8.69    28.30   3.52
1992/93        5.56   97.50     9.74    30.00   4.12
1993/94        6.40  113.00    12.90    30.40   4.25
 
1993/94:
September      6.21  104.00    14.20    32.00   4.24
October        6.01  112.00    11.20    30.00   4.09
November       6.32  122.00    11.60    29.50   4.05
December       6.64  123.00    13.00    29.70   4.18
January        6.72  126.00    13.60    36.10   4.38
February       6.71   97.00    15.10     NA     4.61
March          6.73     NA     15.00     NA     4.64
April          6.57     NA     15.00     NA     4.60
May            6.77     NA     15.60     NA     4.43
June           6.72     NA     14.20     NA     4.25
July           5.92     NA     12.40     NA     4.28
August         5.58   89.00    12.60     NA     4.52
 
1994/95
September      5.47  101.00    10.70    30.60   4.54
October        5.30   96.00    10.80    28.60   4.49
November       5.36  107.00    10.60    25.90   4.51
December       5.41  104.00    10.30    25.80   4.71
January        5.47  101.00    10.60    25.70   4.75
February       5.40   97.00    10.80     NA     4.94
March          5.51    NA      10.40     NA     5.15
April          5.55    NA      10.70     NA     5.10
May            5.56    NA      10.50     NA     4.93
June           5.68    NA      10.50     NA     5.13
July           5.90    NA      11.50     NA     5.10
August1        5.68  100.00    11.70     NA     5.14
--------------------------------------------------------
1 Preliminary.
 
Table 5--Vegetable oil prices
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                      Cotton-  Sun-       
Marketing    Soybean   seed   flower Peanut  Corn  
 year          oil2     oil3    oil4  oil5    oil6 
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                     Cents/lb.
                                                   
1990/91       21.00    22.30   23.60  45.50  27.50 
1991/92       19.10    20.10   21.60  27.30  25.82 
1992/93       21.40    25.00   25.30  27.40  20.90 
1993/94       27.09    27.78   31.00  43.20  26.38 
                                                   
                                                   
1993/94:                                           
October       22.96    24.79   26.33  40.20  22.25 
November      25.43    26.69   28.20  43.33  23.06 
December      28.27    30.39   32.11  43.17  26.93 
January       29.91    33.16   35.08  46.10  28.00 
February      28.85    29.96   33.68  46.12  29.89 
March         29.03    29.60   33.48  44.50  30.30 
April         27.90    29.06   33.00  43.40  29.63 
May           29.10    29.66   33.50  44.25  29.48 
June          27.60    27.55   31.34  43.75  29.43 
July          24.53    24.20   28.89  44.00  27.20 
August        25.38    23.71   28.13  45.00  25.02 
September     26.12    24.51   29.28  43.10  24.87 
                                                   
1994/95                                            
October       27.06    23.64   28.90  46.00  24.73 
November      29.84    24.85   29.40  50.88  24.75 
December      30.61    25.50   30.63  53.80  24.75 
January       29.04    26.41   29.25  50.25  28.01 
February      28.15    25.63   27.66  41.83  27.26 
March         28.33    26.41   27.97  41.00  28.17 
April         27.16    24.00   26.89  41.25  27.30 
May           26.00    24.24   26.34  40.25  26.42 
June          26.78    26.72   27.30  39.00  26.61 
July          27.60    28.25   28.69  39.13  27.38 
August1       26.56    27.09   27.50  41.50  26.35 
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1 Preliminary 2 Decatur 3 Valley points 4 Minneapolis 5 Southeast mills
6 Chicago
 
Table 6--Oilseed meal prices
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             Soy-   Cotton   Sun-           
Marketing    bean    seed   flower  Peanut  Linseed
 year        meal2   meal3   meal4   meal5   meal4
---------------------------------------------------
                        $/Short ton
1990/91     181.40  130.75   88.00  193.00  130.10
1991/92     189.20  140.50   76.80  154.50  125.25
1992/93     193.75  161.78   89.00  172.90  133.60
1993/94     192.86  164.30   94.00  194.91  139.55
 
1993/94:
October     194.50  173.10   90.00  196.00  147.50
November    209.40  181.00   90.00  197.00  161.80
December    206.00  180.00   89.40  200.00  155.25
January     198.30  170.30   97.00  209.00  140.25
February    198.40  173.10   98.75  207.50  136.25
March       195.40  174.00    N/Q   198.75  127.20
April       188.90  166.25    N/Q   191.00  125.50
May         193.75  157.75  105.00  187.50  125.00
June        195.50  154.10  102.50  163.75  111.90
July        181.10  152.50   97.50  164.00  114.90
August      178.60  144.50   90.75  153.75  111.60
September   174.50  145.00   85.00  114.80   NA
 
1994/95
October     168.50  134.40   75.00  151.25  122.50
November    161.00  120.50   69.50  147.50  110.00
December    156.90  114.20   52.50  127.00   95.60
January     156.40  106.75   50.00  105.00   82.40
February    151.30   97.50   46.88  107.50   85.25
March       156.90  100.30   52.50  119.00   90.00
April       161.90   98.10   62.50  125.00   94.40
May         159.10   92.75   60.90  123.75   85.00
June        160.40  108.75   62.38  134.00   85.00
July        170.45  116.90   73.75  138.75   92.50
August1     167.50  114.58   83.75  136.25   96.88
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1 Preliminary 2 Hi-pro Decatur 3 41% Memphis 4 Minneapolis 5 50% SE mills
 
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