Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|September 2016

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Eastern Region

September 2016

National - Signifcant Events for June–August 2016

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies 

Regional - Climate Overview for June–August 2016

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

June 1–August 31, 2016

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

June 1–August 31, 2016

July

Highlights for the East

Below-normal precipitaton and above-normal 

temperatures led to drought conditons in parts of 

the region. In West Virginia and Maryland, extreme 

precipitaton resulted in signifcant fash fooding. See 

Impacts secton for details.

West Virginia saw six more tornadoes than average 

during summer, while the rest of the region saw a near 

to below-average number. The Carolinas and Virginia 

had one tornado, which has only occurred during 

four other summers since 1950. Regionwide, there 

were eight fatalites and more than 20 injuries due to 

lightning. New York's four fatalites in August equalled its 

lightning fatalites for all of 2006–2015. There were more 

than 20 damaging wind events and reports of hail up to 

3 in. in diameter (tea cup size).

Numerous records were set during summer. 

• Beckley, WV: wetest June

• Charleston, SC and Columbia, SC: warmest July and 

all-tme warmest month

• Norfolk, VA: wetest July day on the 31st

• Eight sites: greatest number of 90°F days in either July 

or August

• Sixteen sites: warmest August

• Florence, SC: driest August

• Williamsport, PA and Bridgeport, CT: warmest summer

• Boston, MA: driest summer

At the beginning of June, 1% of the Northeast 

was in a drought. Conditons deteriorated 

during summer and early fall so that by midSeptember 37% of the Northeast was in a 

moderate, severe, or extreme drought. It was 

the frst tme some countes had experienced 

extreme drought since at least 2000 when 

Drought Monitor data began. Drought 

advisories, watches, and warnings were in 

place for several states. Parts of Ohio and 

the Carolinas were also in a drought during 

summer. Drought conditons expanded in these 

areas during June and July, but eased slightly 

during August.

The Eastern Region received 93% of its normal 

summer precipitaton. Twelve states were 

drier than normal, with four ranking this 

summer among their top 20 driest. The region 

received 89% of normal June precipitaton, 

with four states having a top 20 driest June. 

Conversely, West Virginia had its thirteenth 

wetest June. The region also received 89% of 

normal July precipitaton. Two states ranked 

this July among their top 20 driest, while New 

Jersey had its fourteenth wetest. August 

precipitaton was 97% of normal, with eleven 

states being drier than normal. New Jersey had 

its eighth driest August on record.

The Eastern Region had its second warmest 

summer on record at 2.2°F above normal. 

Connectcut and Rhode Island were record 

warm, with the other fourteen states ranking 

this summer among their top 15 warmest. 

June was 0.8°F warmer than normal, with two 

states ranking this June among their top 20 

warmest. The region had its eleventh warmest 

July at 2.2°F above normal. Twelve states 

ranked this July among their top 20 warmest. 

August was record warm at 3.6°F above 

normal. Eight states had their warmest August 

on record, with the other states ranking it 

among their top 10 warmest.

Drought in the East

Normals based on 1981–2010

The contguous U.S. had its ffh warmest summer on record with an average temperature of 73.5°F, 

2.1°F above the 20th century average. It was the warmest June on record with an average temperature 

of 71.8°F, 3.3°F above average, and the 14th warmest July on record with an average temperature of 

75.3°F, 1.6°F above average. August's average temperature of 73.6°F was 1.5°F above average. Summer 

precipitaton for the contguous U.S. was 8.92 inches, 0.60 inches above the 20th century average. 

The U.S. precipitaton total for June was 2.46 inches, 0.47 inches below average, making it the 14th 

driest June on record. July precipitaton was 2.87 inches, 0.09 inches above average. It was the second 

wetest August on record with 3.47 inches of precipitaton, 0.85 inches above average.

U.S. Drought Monitor

September 15, 2016

June
Regional - Impacts and Updates for June–August 2016

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|September 2016 

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Autumn 2016 Eastern Region Partners

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Ofces, Atlantc

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Ofce for Coastal Management

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov

NOAA Research, Climate Program Ofce and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.research.noaa.gov

NOAA Natonal Sea Grant Ofce

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantc, South Atlantc, and Great

Lakes Regional Collaboraton Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Southeast Regional Climate Center

www.sercc.com

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton

System

www.drought.gov

Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments

www.cisa.sc.edu

Consortum on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperatve Insttute for North Atlantc Research

www.cinar.org

Eastern Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Precipitation and 

Temperature

A NOAA's Climate Predicton 

Center is calling for an 

increased chance of belownormal precipitaton from 

October–December for the 

Carolinas and equal chances 

elsewhere (above). The October–December 

temperature outlook indicates an increased 

chance of above-normal temperatures for most 

of the Northeast, Ohio, and northern Virginia.

ENSO

While sea surface temperatures were 

generally below average in the equatorial 

Pacifc Ocean during August, El Niño/Southern 

Oscillaton (ENSO) neutral conditons were 

observed. NOAA’s Climate Predicton Center 

says there is a 55–60% chance of ENSOneutral conditons contnuing during fall and 

winter 2016–17. The chances of La Nina have 

decreased to around 35–40%. 

B

Streamfow and groundwater were at near 

to record low levels in New England and New 

York during summer. Reservoir levels were also 

below normal. Due to water shortages, more 

than 290 water systems in New Hampshire and 

Massachusets had water restrictons in early 

September. A few reports indicated low water 

levels led to fsh deaths in some rivers and that it 

could impact river ecology for several years.

Many farmers irrigated, but some water sources 

dried up. Crops such as corn and soybeans were 

stressed and stunted, with yields and quality 

expected to be lower than usual. Slow growth 

of pastures forced some farmers to supplement 

with winter feed. Crop losses in Massachusets 

for producers partcipatng in USDA Farm Service 

Agency programs exceeded $13 million as of late August. Over 50% of hay 

crops were lost. Increased irrigaton and 

labor costs also impacted the agriculture 

economy. Farmers in many of the drought 

areas became eligible for federal aid. 

There was also increased fre risk and 

actvity. In late July, Massachusets had 

more lightning strike fres than usual 

and moisture in dead vegetaton was 

historically low, meaning fres could start 

easily and spread rapidly. The drought 

made fghtng fres more labor intensive.

EC

40

33

Monthly streamfow 

compared to historical 

streamfow for July 

2016. Credit: USGS 

WaterWatch. 

Atlantic Hurricane Season

In early September, tropical cyclone Hermine 

caused rough seas from the Carolinas to New 

England. In Virginia and the Carolinas, up to 11 

inches of rain and/or high tdes caused fooding. 

Three tornadoes touched down in eastern North 

Carolina. Gusty winds downed trees and wires, 

leading to power outages.

Through September 1, there were eight 

named tropical systems in the Atlantc Basin, 

including three hurricanes, one of which was 

a major hurricane. On average, there are fve 

named storms, including two hurricanes by late 

August, with the frst major hurricane in early 

September. NOAA’s August hurricane outlook

calls for a 70% chance of 12–17 named storms, 

with 5–8 of those becoming hurricanes, and 

2–4 of those becoming major hurricanes. Those 

numbers are slightly higher than the original 

outlook from May. 

Drought & Fire

The U.S. Drought Outlook 

for September 15–December 

31 from NOAA's Climate 

Predicton Center calls for 

drought conditons to persist 

in the Northeast and western 

Carolinas, develop in parts 

of the Carolinas and Virginia, 

and improve in Ohio (lef).

The Natonal Interagency 

Fire Center says the potental 

for signifcant wildland fres 

is above normal in November and December 

for most of the Carolinas and Virginia and near 

normal for the rest of the region.

B: Below-normal

EC: Equal chances

#: Probability of 

below-normal

Drought

Parts of southern West Virginia saw 8+ 

inches of rain on June 23. This made it a 

1-day 1,000-year storm for these areas, 

meaning rainfall of that magnitude 

has a 0.1% chance of occurring in a 

given year. Record or near record water 

levels occurred on some rivers. For 

example, the Elk River at Queen Shoals 

in Kanawha County crested 14.37 f. 

above food stage and 1.37 f. above its 

previous record set in 1888. Signifcant 

fash fooding damaged or destroyed 

thousands of homes. The foods caused nearly $47 million in damage to 

hundreds of roads and bridges and several million dollars in damage to 

the agriculture industry. It was the state's third deadliest fooding event.

Extreme rainfall fell in Howard and Montgomery Countes in Maryland 

on July 30. Ellicot City received 5.92 inches of rain in 2 hours, making it 

a 1,000-year event. The heavy rainfall led to a rapid rise of the Patapsco 

River, with preliminary data showing 

a rise of 13.13 f. in 1.5 hours. 

Signifcant fash fooding damaged 

numerous buildings and hundreds of 

vehicles. There were two fatalites. 

Numerous heavy rain and fash 

fooding events occurred across 

the region, including Raleigh, NC; 

Columbia, SC; and Princeton and 

Hunterdon County, NJ.

Extreme Precipitation

Damage from fash fooding in 

southern West Virginia on June 23. 

Credit: WV Dept. of Transportaton.

Drought-stressed corn in Lewis 

County, NY. Credit: Joe Lawrence.

Damage to a store in Ellicot City, MD 

from fash fooding on July 30. Credit: 

Natonal Weather Service (LWX).