OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS                        December 6, 1995
             Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST AT A RECORD $58 BILLION IN FISCAL
1996
                                
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is revised
upward $3.5 billion to a record $58 billion.   The export volume
forecast is lowered slightly, but remains strong at 156 million
tons.  Tight global supplies are expected to substantially raise
prices for wheat, coarse grains, and soybeans, boosting export
value by $2.1 billion compared with the August forecast. Livestock
product exports are forecast $1.2 billion higher than in August,
largely because of an anticipated $900-million increase in red
meat shipments. The cotton export forecast is reduced $400
million, reflecting prospects for increased foreign competition.
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural imports is $29
billion, unchanged  from the August forecast.  A $300-million
increase in grain and sugar product imports is offset by lower
coffee imports.
 
The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is forecast at a record $29
billion in fiscal 1996.  This forecast surpasses the previous
record of $26.6 billion, set in fiscal 1981.
 
Commodity Highlights
 
The forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. wheat and flour is
increased 300,000 tons and $500 million from USDA's August
forecast to 31.8 million tons valued at $5.9 billion.  The global
wheat market has further tightened in recent months with a
downward revision in the beginning stocks of major wheat
exporters, reduced global production estimates, and little change
in global consumption for fiscal 1996.  These developments led to
a significant upward revision in U.S. wheat prices.
 
The forecast for U.S. coarse grain shipments in fiscal 1996 is
lowered 350,000 tons from August's forecast to 56.2 million tons,
but higher prices raise export value $800 million to $7.9 billion. 
The export outlook for coarse grain shipments is reduced mainly
due to a downward revision in sorghum exports.  A smaller expected
domestic crop and higher prices lowers U.S. sorghum exports by
350,000 tons to 4.2 million tons, while export value remains
unchanged.  While U.S. corn export volume remains unchanged,
sharply higher expected prices raise the value of corn exports
$800 million to $7.2 billion.  The weather-reduced U.S. crop, the
continued absence of China as a major corn exporter, and strong
demand from major Asian importers continues to place upward
pressure on U.S. corn prices.  China is now expected to export
only 1 million tons of corn in fiscal 1996, down 500,000 tons from
the August estimate.
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. rice exports is lowered 200,000
tons from the August forecast to 3.2 million tons, but value
remains unchanged at $1 billion.  A substantial downward revision
in rough rice shipments, mainly because Brazil is expected to
import less, lowers the overall estimate for U.S. rice exports. 
However, U.S. rice prices are forecast higher due to a downward
revision in domestic stocks and a tighter global market.
 
The volume forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. oilseeds and
products remains unchanged from the August forecast at 31.2
million tons, but export value is raised $1 billion to $9.9
billion.  This is mainly due to an upward revision of $800 million
for soybeans to $6.1 billion and an upward revision
of $300 million for soybean meal to $1.3 billion.  Significantly
higher prices for oilseeds and meals reflect sharply reduced U.S.
and global oilseed stocks and stocks-to-use ratios.  The current
year estimates for U.S. and Brazilian soybean crops have been
reduced since August, while economic growth in major overseas
markets continues to boost global demand.
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. cotton exports is lowered
100,000 tons and $400 million from the August forecast to 1.6
million tons valued at $2.5 billion.  This revision reflects a
larger than previously expected recovery in foreign production, a
slight downward revision in world imports, and increased
competition in export markets.  If this forecast is realized, U.S.
cotton exports in fiscal 1996 will total $1 billion less than last
year's record.
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. exports of unmanufactured
tobacco is unchanged from the August estimate of $1.3 billion. 
The demand for U.S. leaf exports from the traditional markets of
the European Union and East Asia is steady.
 
The forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. livestock, dairy, and
poultry products is increased $1.2 billion from the August
forecast to a record $12.1 billion.  This is mainly due to a
$900-million upward revision in red meat exports.  The beef
export forecast is revised upward largely due to higher estimates
for U.S. exports to Japan and South Korea where the growth in
demand and progress toward market liberalization continue.  The
pork export forecast is also revised upward largely due to higher
estimates for U.S. exports to Russia and South Korea.  U.S. beef
and pork prices are falling, making these products even more
competitive than they were last year.  The export forecast for
hides, skins, and furs is increased $100 million to $1.9 billion
due to continued strong demand, particularly from East Asia, and
firmer prices.  The forecast for U.S. poultry and product exports
is unchanged at $2.4 billion, but poultry meat export volume is
revised upwards 100,000 tons to 2.1 million tons.  The China, Hong
Kong, and Russia markets are expected to remain strong for U.S.
poultry meat.  The export forecast for dairy products remains
unchanged at $900 million.
 
The forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. horticultural
products remains unchanged from the August forecast at a record
$10.3 billion.  Exports of fresh and processed vegetables and tree
nuts remain unchanged at $2.9 billion and $1.2 billion,
respectively.  The forecast for fresh and processed fruit exports
is decreased slightly by $100 million to $3.6 billion.  Strong
demand in Asia for apples, frozen potatoes, and fresh vegetables
will boost U.S. horticultural exports in 1996.  Continued market
liberalization, rising incomes, a growing demand for healthful
foods, and on-going market promotion activities in major overseas
markets like Japan and other Asian countries, continue to drive
U.S. exports higher.
 
Economic Outlook
 
World real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected at 2.8
percent in 1996, slowed somewhat by lower anticipated growth in
the United States.  Improved growth prospects for Japan, Canada,
and Latin America favor increased U.S. exports.  GDP growth in
Pacific Asia, although expected to slow, will be robust at about
7.5 percent.  Increased growth is likely for the Middle East,
Africa, the former Soviet Union, and Central and Eastern Europe.
 
The dollar has strengthened vis-a-vis the Japanese yen and German
mark during the last 3 months.  Even with an expected slight
strengthening of the dollar in 1996, the exchange rate remains
favorable for U.S. exports. 
 
Regional Highlights
 
Japan
 
U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at $11.3 billion in fiscal
1996, an 8 percent increase over the record $10.5 billion in 1995. 
The increase is due in part to higher expected prices for bulk
commodities and continued gains in HVP exports.
 
Japan is undergoing a healthy restructuring to a lower-cost
economy, and prices for consumer goods, including foodstuffs, are
declining.  This is partly because of the lower price of imports,
given the strong yen, and also the result of efficiency
gains as companies strive to cut costs in order to be more
competitive against imports and to strengthen profits. 
Supermarkets have been leaders in reducing retail prices by
turning to direct imports of foreign foodstuffs, bypassing the
costly, multi-layered Japanese distribution system and sharing the
lower cost of foreign goods with consumers.  The primary
commodities benefitting from the focus on reduced prices are those
sold in supermarkets:  meats, canned and bottled goods,
frozen products, convenience and snack foods, and fresh fruits and
vegetables.
 
U.S. beef exports are expected to grow strongly in fiscal 1996,
boosted by low meat prices in the United States, reduced supplies
from Australia, and continued efforts by U.S. producers and
packers to tailor beef cuts to Japanese needs.  As in 1995,
there is a strong possibility that safeguard tariffs may be
applied as beef imports exceed the rate of increase that triggers
the tariff increases.  However, the maximum rise of 4.2 percentage
points would not be a significant factor in slowing
imports.  The situation is more serious with pork, where the gate
price (a minimum import price) was increased by almost 25 percent
for the November 1995-March 1996 period.  In addition, the
possibility exists for another safeguard increase in the
gate price during the latter part of 1996.  U.S. exporters,
however, who ship relatively high-priced chilled cuts, suffer less
from the increase than other exporters.  Therefore, some increase
in the volume of U.S. pork exports to Japan is
expected in 1996.
 
Fresh vegetable exports will gain but not as much as in 1995,
since a surge of onion imports caused by poor weather and reduced
supplies in Japan may not be repeated. Prospects for frozen and
canned vegetable exports are very good, since they fit
supermarkets' strategy of reducing prices.  Fresh fruit imports
will grow, but canned and frozen fruits are likely to grow faster,
just as for vegetables.  Given a rebound of orange juice exports,
total fruit juice shipments to Japan could show
very strong growth in 1996.
 
Japan's broiler and pork production is expected to continue to
decline, which will mean lower demand for feed grains.  The volume
of feed grain and soybean exports in 1996 is likely to be reduced. 
However, with higher prices expected, the total value
of these feed inputs will increase.  Similarly, wheat export value
to Japan will rise, even though volume is little changed.  Japan's
minimum access rice imports from the United States are likely to
add to the agricultural export total.
 
European Union
 
U.S. exports to the European Union-15 (EU-15) reached $8.4 billion
in fiscal 1995, led by strong gains in oilseed exports.  In fiscal
1996, exports are forecast at $8.7 billion, as higher prices for
oilseeds boost value despite lower shipments.
 
Soybeans will face increased competition from other oilseeds as
the EU produced a near-record 1995 oilseed crop led by higher
rapeseed production.  Higher soybean prices should raise U.S.
export value.  It is expected that EU use of soybean meal
may decline slightly as meal prices increase.  Soybean meal will
face increased competition from rapeseed and sunflowerseed meals
because of higher domestic crush. EU demand for soybean meal will
be met more through meal imports and slightly less by domestic
crush of imported soybeans.
 
Corn exports during 1995 were high largely because of continued
drought in Spain. Spanish corn yields for the 1995 harvest were
considerably improved over the previous year, but the barley and
wheat crops were cut dramatically.  Although the EU has shipped
large supplies of intervention barley and rye stocks from Germany
and the United Kingdom, the supplies have not been sufficient to
offset the reduced crops in Spain.  U.S. rice exports are expected
to register a further increase in 1996, despite the increase in
protection levels in Finland, Austria, and Sweden
because of Accession.
  
Little growth is expected in red meat exports to the EU due to the
continuing import ban on beef from hormone-treated cattle and,
specifically, the extension of this ban to Austria.  U.S. poultry
exports are expected to remain relatively constant in
fiscal 1996, as internal supplies will continue to meet demand.
 
In recent years, horticultural export growth has been concentrated
in processed products because of a broad range of seasonal trade
restrictions on fresh fruits and vegetables.  In fiscal 1996,
orange juice, wine, tree nuts, and dried fruit (mostly prunes and
raisins) should lead horticultural exports to the region. 
However, growth is also expected in several smaller niche markets
including canned sweet corn, fresh green asparagus, and some
deciduous fruits.  U.S. apple exports are likely to increase
because of weather-reduced EU production.
 
Canada
 
U.S. agricultural exports totaled $5.8 billion in fiscal 1995. 
Exports gained largely because prices for horticultural products,
which account for over 40 percent of U.S. shipments to Canada,
were higher.  The value of exports is expected to rise about 4
percent to $6.1 billion in fiscal 1996.
 
The importance of horticultural product exports make their high
prices of 1995 an important factor to consider when looking at
fiscal 1996.  In 1995, because of the flooding in California, many
prices were at extremely high levels.  Since Canadians
are wealthy enough to absorb these price increases and suffer
little reduction in their levels of consumption, U.S. export
values of these products were up dramatically in 1995.  Prices
should decline in 1996, and value of horticultural exports likely
will remain unchanged even though volume will continue to rise.
 
U.S. exports of grains and feeds, oilseeds, and livestock and
products are expected to continue to increase.  U.S. coarse
grains, particularly corn, will continue to be in demand due to
the tightness of Canada's barley and feed wheat supplies.
 
Mexico
 
U.S. agricultural exports reached $3.7 billion in fiscal 1995,
stronger than earlier anticipated because of strong fourth quarter
exports due to the drought in northern Mexico.  Exports are
forecast to rise to $3.8 billion in 1996 as exports of selected
bulk and intermediate products are expected to increase because of
substantial domestic shortfalls.  However, sharply lower exports
of most consumer-oriented products are likely to continue in the
near term due to lower consumer purchasing power.
 
Mexico's agricultural sector continues to experience extraordinary
adjustment problems as the government seeks to convert to a market
oriented, competitively structured industry in the midst of the
worst economic crisis in many decades.  The
peso devaluation led to sharply higher input and financing costs,
plus a sharp contraction of demand.  A severe drought in the north
exacerbated the destocking of the livestock sector.
 
Mexico's corn and wheat production is forecast to fall in fiscal
1996.  However, the production of sorghum is forecast to increase
as farmers continue to shift out of corn and into sorghum. Sorghum
yields are high, prices are competitive with corn, and input
requirements are lower.  For fiscal 1996, U.S. exports of corn and
wheat should increase to help make up for the shortfall in
production.  Mexico's soybean production is expected to drop as
farmers, discouraged by serious white fly damage, look to other
crops.  U.S. soybean and soybean meal exports are likely to
increase to meet Mexico's demand. 
 
U.S. beef exports are projected to rebound somewhat in 1996 as a
result of higher prices for domestic beef due to high inflation
and insufficient production to supply selected market niches  with
high quality product. Although consumers and processors 
are beginning to shift away from imported to domestic pork, due to
devaluation, fiscal 1996 imports should rebound based on the
quality of U.S. product and the inability of domestic Mexican
producers to meet consumer demand.
 
South Korea
 
The value of U.S. agricultural exports to South Korea rose 74
percent to a record $3.6 billion in fiscal 1995, and another
strong increase to $4.4 billion is forecast for fiscal 1996.  In
1995, U.S. exports benefitted from a strong South Korean economy
which is estimated to grow a robust 8.5 percent, because of strong
consumer demand and a surge in South Korean exports boosted by a
strong Japanese yen. Economic growth will likely be smaller in
1996.  Inflation is expected to remain under control in 1996
following 1995's estimated inflation rate of 4.7 percent.
 
U.S. corn exports to South Korea soared to a record 8.9 million
tons valued at over $1 billion as China sharply reduced its corn
exports to South Korea, less feed wheat was available to import,
and feed use of grain rose.  The United States will continue to
export corn to South Korea at about the same level as in fiscal
1995, but higher prices will mean higher value in 1996.
 
In fiscal 1995, U.S. beef exports to Korea increased 46 percent to
$291 million, while U.S. pork exports increased 450 percent to $28
million.  The major market access development to occur in 1995 was
the July agreement that successfully resolved the U.S. red meat
industry's Section 301 petition and the related WTO
shelf-life dispute.  U.S. exports of vacuum-packed chilled beef
and pork should benefit significantly from the agreement.  Rapid
economic growth and strong consumer demand are likely to boost red
meat imports again in fiscal 1996.  
 
U.S. soybean exports will be supported by a lower tariff on
soybeans to partially offset the lower tariff on soybean oil,
higher relative tariffs on competitive edible oils and the recent
agreement between South Korean crushers and feed millers that
provides for a guaranteed minimum market for locally-crushed
soybeans.
 
Taiwan
 
U.S. farm exports to Taiwan in fiscal 1996 are forecast to reach a
record $2.7 billion.  This is only slightly higher than the nearly
$2.6 billion in 1995 because increased prices for many bulk
commodities have been offset by lower volume sales. Bulk
commodities still account for more than 60 percent of U.S. farm
exports to Taiwan, which depends almost totally on imports of
inputs for its livestock, flour-milling, and cotton textile
industries.
 
The total volume of U.S. coarse grain and soybean exports is
forecast to fall in fiscal 1996 because of decreased demand from
the hog sector.  Taiwan's pork exports, virtually all of which are
destined for Japan, are expected to be dampened by Japan's recent
tariff rate increase for pork imports.
 
In addition to bulk and intermediate commodities,
consumer-oriented agricultural items are growing rapidly as trade
restrictions have been relaxed.  Because of their growing
affluence, Taiwan's consumers are adopting more Westernized and
convenience-oriented diets, with greater consumption of animal
protein, fresh fruits, and vegetables.  Because U.S. food products
enjoy both widespread consumer recognitionand have a head start in
marketing, high-value product (HVP) exports are expected to
increase again in 1996.
 
China
 
Total fiscal 1995 U.S. agricultural exports to China surged to a
record $2.4 billion, as a poor harvest, rising demand, and
stock-building prompted enormous increases in corn, soybean oil,
and cotton imports.  In addition, imports of most other
agricultural commodities also grew rapidly as China's 10 to 11
percent rate of real economic growth spurred consumer demand. 
Fiscal 1996 exports are expected to rise to $2.7 billion.
 
Although rising consumer food prices are expected to dampen
consumer demand, significantly higher domestic agricultural
commodity prices are also making imported U.S. agricultural
products increasingly competitive.  The most important changes in
China's fiscal 1996 imports are increased wheat, soybean, cattle
hide, and poultry meat sales.  Sales of cotton and corn are again
expected to be substantial in 1996, but below their record or
near-record levels in 1995 (though a higher corn price increases
the value of corn sales and a lower cotton price exaggerates the
reduction in cotton sales).  Wheat consumption continues to rise
in China as consumers, particularly in urban areas and South
China, switch from rice to wheat.  Soybean demand is steadily
increasing as rising income drive demand for food beans and meat
(stimulating demand for soy meal).  Continued growth in edible oil
demand in China is expected, however, soybean oil imports will be
tempered by a build up of domestic oil stocks in 1995 and by whole
soybean imports.
 
Hong Kong
 
U.S. agricultural exports totaled $1.4 billion in fiscal 1995, and
are expected to rise to $1.5 billion in fiscal 1996.  U.S. exports
of most agricultural products followed normal trends in 1995
except for two:  poultry meat and edible oils. Exports of poultry
meat expanded from $231 million in 1994 to an estimated $390
million in 1995, an increase of 68 percent.  Edible oil exports
expanded from $24 million in 1994 to $59 million in 1995, a rise
of 145 percent.
 
Hong Kong's economy in 1996 is expected to continue its real GDP
growth rate of 3 to 5 percent.  No disruptions in Hong Kong's
China trade are expected and past patterns will continue with U.S.
commodities going to Hong Kong and then into China.  Growth
in consumer foods such as red meat, fruit, and vegetables are
expected to increase in 1996.  Cotton shipments are also expected
to increase in 1996, but lower prices will keep value from rising
much over 1995.
 
Southeast Asia
 
U.S. agricultural exports to Southeast Asia reached nearly $2.6
billion in fiscal 1995, and are expected to reach $2.7 billion in
fiscal 1996.  Supported by strong economic performance in the
region, U.S. agricultural exports to Southeast Asia increased 44
percent in fiscal 1995.  U.S. agricultural exports to Vietnam were
the fastest growing, but still relatively small, followed by
strong growth in Malaysia and Indonesia.  Exports to Indonesia
were $707 million, and surpassed the Philippines ($675 million),
which is usually the largest U.S. market in the region.
 
U.S. bulk commodity exports increased 61 percent to about $1.6
billion in fiscal 1995.  The dramatic change was due in part to
rising commodity prices and record shipments of coarse grains,
soybeans, cotton, wheat, and rice.  Changing trade patterns in
China and decreased availability from other bulk commodity
suppliers contributed to the sharp increase in U.S. exports of
these commodities.  Although demand for bulk commodity imports is
expected to remain strong in 1996, the magnitude of growth will
likely be tempered by higher prices.
 
Rising per-capita income and changing dietary habits contributed
to an increase in U.S. meat products and other HVP exports.  In
fiscal 1995, total meat product imports from the United States
increased 37 percent, and fruit and vegetable imports gained 20
percent.  If current trends continue, both meat product and fruit
and vegetable imports by the region will rise in 1996.  Current
consumption patterns for such HVP goods will likely continue to
rise since little is being done to increase domestic production.
 
South Asia
 
U.S. agricultural exports to South Asia totaled $976 million in
fiscal 1995, and are expected to be about $900 million in fiscal
1996.  Exports to Pakistan should be about $300 million.  Wheat
and cotton accounted for most of the export value to the region. 
In 1996, wheat shipments are expected to decline but increased
wheat prices could keep value from falling.  Cotton imports by
Pakistan and India will fall as production is forecast to increase
because improved weather conditions limited pest damage.
 
North Africa and Middle East
 
U.S. sales to North Africa rose 43 percent to $2.1 billion in
fiscal 1995, led by a 42-percent increase in grain and feed
exports.  There were also strong gains in animal product, fruit,
cotton, and tobacco exports.  Exports to Egypt rose 124 percent to
a record $1.4 billion.  Grain and feed sales to Egypt rose 116
percent to $1.1 billion.  U.S. agricultural exports to the Middle
East rose 42 percent to a record $2.4 billion, led by increased
grain and feed, fruit, oilseeds and products, cotton, and tobacco
exports.
 
U.S. exports to North Africa and the Middle East are forecast to
rise to $4.8 billion.  Sharply higher grain sales to Morocco are
projected as it suffers its third major drought in the last 4
years.  Large commercial grain sales to Egypt are expected to
continue, and higher prices likely will maintain values at record
levels.  A number of countries are at the $500 million level,
including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel, and Algeria.  Rising per
capita incomes, combined with a rapidly expanding urban population
and frequent production shortfalls, have made the
region a significant market for grain.  In addition, expanding
sales of HVP such as animals and animal products, as well as
fruits and vegetables are forecast.
 
Former Soviet Union
 
The value of U.S. agricultural exports to the former Soviet Union
(FSU) in fiscal 1996 is forecast at $1.3 billion, up from fiscal
1995's $1.2 billion.  Fiscal 1996 U.S. exports to Russia, the
primary FSU agricultural importer, are forecast at $1.1 billion,
up $200 million from $900 million in fiscal 1995.  Continued
growth in HVP exports (primarily meat) and higher grain prices are
the main factors behind the increased fiscal 1996 export
projection.  Despite significantly lower marketing year 1995/96
grain production in the FSU, U.S. grain exports to the region are
expected to increase only slightly from fiscal 1995's low levels
as total FSU imports are projected near marketing year 1994/95
levels.  Export credit and food aid programming should continue to
play a relatively small role in facilitating exports, with grant
aid targeted at those countries where food distribution has been
disrupted by military/civil unrest and blockades, or at
cash-strapped countries experiencing lower output and unable to
import commercially.  Small export credit guarantee packages have
been announced for private sector traders in Russia and Estonia.
 
Prospects for fiscal 1996 U.S. HVP exports to the region are good,
given expected continuation of lower FSU agricultural output and
steady demand.  In Russia, another important factor behind the
growth in HVP purchases has been the appreciation of the ruble
against the dollar.  Despite the introduction of higher import
tariffs, taxes, and new policies to promote purchases of domestic
products over foreign products, Russian HVP imports grew
significantly in 1995 and should remain strong in 1996. U.S. HVP
exports to other FSU countries could expand in fiscal 1996,
however, Russia will continue to be the dominant market for these
products.  The main U.S. HVP commodities exported to Russia in
fiscal 1995 were poultry meat (Russia was again the leading market
for U.S. poultry meat), pork, beef and pork offal, processed
fruits and vegetables, and beverages.
 
Central and Eastern Europe
 
U.S. exports to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were $306 million
in fiscal 1995 and are expected to increase towards $350 million
in fiscal 1996.
 
Roughly one third of U.S. exports in the last 2 years have been
animal products; of that, slightly over half has been poultry
meat--mainly leg quarters.  These have a comparative advantage
because of low cost and a preference for dark meat.  But in
1995 these exports have been adversely affected by high import
barriers put in place by Poland and Romania.  Poland imposed a
variable levy, while Romania set a minimum import price that made
U.S. poultry prohibitively expensive on the domestic market. 
In compliance with their GATT commitments, both countries have
replaced these barriers with tariffs, but the tariffs are
currently very high.
 
Grain exports in fiscal 1996 are likely to remain low due to the
improved CEE grain harvest.  Wheat exports are expected to rise,
with most of it going to Albania as food aid and to the former
Yugoslav Republics.  Exports of wheat flour will also continue as
food aid to the former Yugoslav Republics, but commercial sales of
wheat will be minimal.
 
Brazil
 
U.S. exports surpassed $600 million in fiscal 1995, and exports
are likely to remain near that level in 1996.  U.S. corn exports
grew in fiscal 1995 because of the short end-of-year Argentine
stocks.  The continued growth of Brazil's broiler industry has
also added to its import demand for corn and could continue into
fiscal 1996. Brazil imported soybeans and soybean oil from the
United States to meet short term requirements of the soybean
processing industry, but this will probably not happen in 1996. 
Brazil's cotton production is expected to improve slightly, but
not enough to meet the country's current demand, and imports from
the United States are expected to continue.  Beer, wine, hops,
vegetables and preparations, and inedible tallow (used for soaps
and other industrial products), were especially strong in 1995 and
have good prospects for 1996.
 
U.S. Agricultural Export Programs
 
U.S. Food Aid Programs
 
The Public Law 480 (P.L.480) Food for Peace program uses
appropriated funds to provide U.S. agricultural assistance to
countries at different levels of economic development.  The
P.L.480 food aid program is comprised of three titles.
 
Title I of P.L.480 provides for government-to-government sales of
U.S. agricultural commodities to developing countries under
long-term credit arrangements to promote trade-enhancing,
broad-based economic development.  Title II provides for the
donation of U.S. agricultural commodities by the U.S. government
to meet humanitarian needs in foreign countries.  Commodities may
be provided under government-to-government agreements, through
public and private agencies, and other multilateral organizations. 
Title III provides for government-to-government grants to support
long-term economic development in least developed countries.  The
U.S. government will donate Title III agricultural commodities
which will be sold in the recipient country with revenue generated
used to support programs of economic development.  Title I is
administered by the Foreign Agricultural Service of USDA and
Titles II and III are administered by the Agency for International
Development, U.S. Department of State.  
 
Tentative fiscal 1996 allocations for $225 million under the Title
I program have been announced to cover commodity financing under
Title I and commodity grants under Food for Progress programs
funded by Title I appropriations.  The preliminary allocation of
$184 million for the 1996 Title I program is for total commodity
shipments of 782,000 tons, about one-half of fiscal 1995. 
Commodity allocations, particularly for feed grains and wheat,
reflect the current tight supply situation.
 
In fiscal 1996, Jordan will be the largest Title I recipient, with
about 90,000 tons of planned wheat assistance.  Other large
recipients are Bolivia, Moldova, Sri Lanka, and Guyana.  The
Ukraine is the largest oilseed meal recipient.  Cotton allocations
are planned for Croatia and Moldova. 
 
Title I commodities also support Food for Progress, a program
encouraging countries to facilitate private enterprise in
agriculture.  The preliminary fiscal 1996 Food for Progress
program of $71 million supports approximately 300,000 tons of
wheat, down 35,000 tons from 1995.  The recipient countries are
the former Soviet republics of Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgystan, and
Tajikistan.
 
Export Enhancement Program
 
For fiscal 1996, Export Enhancement Program (EEP) bonuses are
available for sales of 7.6 million tons of wheat, wheat flour,
barley feed grains, barley malt, rice, vegetable oil, and frozen
poultry, and 6.2 million dozen eggs.  As of November 24, 1995, the
only EEP sales were for 11,125 tons of frozen poultry.
 
CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs
 
As of November 3, 1995, announced allocations for GSM-102 and
GSM-103 credit guarantee programs totaled $2,337 million, and
applications totaled $315.2 million. Mexico is the largest
recipient of GSM-102 credit so far in 1996, with announced
allocations of $700 million.
  
U.S. Agricultural Imports
 
U.S. agricultural imports totaled $29.5 billion in fiscal 1995. 
In fiscal 1996, imports are forecast to decline to $29 billion,
unchanged from the August forecast. 
 
The fiscal 1996 coffee import forecast has been lowered to $3
billion from the August forecast of $3.2 billion.  Import volume
is expected to remain at 1 million tons while good crops in Mexico
and Colombia, declining consumption in the United
States, and the willingness of roasters to hold small stocks
should combine to push world coffee prices down.  Prices began to
decline toward the end of fiscal 1995 as buyers anticipated
increased production in 1996 and withheld purchases.  Roasters
were content with lower stocks as consumption decreased, prices
trended downward, and supplies were stable.  Although production
in Brazil is still recovering from damage caused by last year's
frosts, Mexico, the largest supplier to the United States in
fiscal 1995, is expected to have a 12-percent increase in coffee
production, ensuring a supply of lower-priced coffee. 
 
Animal product imports are forecast to increase $100 million over
the August forecast to $5.4 billion because of higher imports of
miscellaneous products.  Red meats, live animals, and dairy are
unchanged.
 
The sugar forecast is increased $100 million to $1.3 billion, due
to higher unit-values for confectionery and other sugar products. 
Volume for cane and beet remains unchanged at 2 million tons,
higher than in fiscal 1995 because of a larger sugar import quota. 
 
Grain imports are forecast at 5.9 million tons as the smaller U.S.
crop and high prices lead to larger imports.  Value is forecast up
$200 million to $800 million, reflecting higher coarse grain and
wheat prices due to tight global supplies.
 
Note to customers:
 
Tables for Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports are available on
the ERS AUTOfax system. To access call 202-219-1107 and follow
voice instructions. Enter document number 16040 for tables from
this report. 
 
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