OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY                   May 31, 1995
              Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S.
AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is available 2-3 working days following release of this
summary.
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U.S. Export Forecast Revised Upward $3 Billion to $51.5 Billion
 
U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at $51.5 billion in fiscal 1995, up $8
billion from fiscal 1994 and $3 billion above the February 1995 forecast.  Much
of the gain from the previous forecast is due to increased export prices,
particularly for wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds and products, and cotton. 
Wheat, corn, and soybean exports gained $700 million, and record prices for
cotton have raised cotton export prospects $600 million since February. 
China's withdrawal from the corn export market and its strong demand for cotton
and soybean oil are boosting U.S. export prospects.  U.S. exports to China are
forecast at a record $2.3 billion in fiscal 1995.  Overall export volume is
forecast at 159.2 million tons, 2.6 million tons higher than in February.
 
Export prospects for U.S. livestock, poultry, and horticultural products
advanced $1 billion since the February forecast.  Record meat, fruit, and
vegetable exports are expected in fiscal 1995 because world income growth and a
weaker dollar are supporting consumer demand for a variety of food items.  As a
result, U.S. high-value product exports are expected to surpass $29 billion.
 
The forecast for U.S. agricultural imports has been raised $1 billion from
February to $29.5 billion.  Resurgent coffee prices and expected higher prices
for rubber and horticultural products account for part of the increase, and
higher grain and oilseed imports are further boosting value.  The U.S.
agricultural trade surplus is projected at $22 billion, the highest since 1982.
 
          Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1990-1995
 
                         -- Year beginning October 1 --                     
         :         :         :         :         :         :    Forecast
Item     : FY 1990 : FY 1991 : FY 1992 : FY 1993 : FY 1994 :     FY 1995
         :         :         :         :         :         :   Feb. :  May  
         :                      -- Billion dollars --
         :
Exports  :    40.1      37.5     42.3       42.5      43.5     48.5   51.5
         :
Imports  :    22.5      22.6     24.3       24.5      26.4     28.5   29.5
         :                                                                  
Trade    :
 balance :    17.6      14.9     18.0       18.0      17.1     20.0   22.0
         :                                                                  
         :                    -- Million tons --
Export   :
 volume  :   148.7     129.4    143.6      146.4     127.4    156.6  159.2
         :                                                                  
This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 11, 1995, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
 
Printed copies of the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports will be available
in about a week.  For more information, contact Joel Greene (202) 219-0816.  
 
Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1993-95        
 
                             :    October-March    : Fiscal :    Fiscal 1995
      Commodity              :  1993/94 : 1994/95  :  1994  :      Forecast
                             :          :          :        :   Feb.   :  May 
                             :              --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/          :       7.261  8.524    13.413     15.3    16.0
  Wheat & flour              :       2.310  2.541     4.228      5.0     5.1
  Rice                       :        .463   .574      .891       .8      .9
  Coarse grains 2/           :       2.613  3.371     4.569      6.0     6.4
    Corn                     :       2.220  2.974     3.817      5.3     5.6
  Feeds and fodders          :       1.174  1.279     2.277      2.1     2.2
                             :
Oilseeds and products        :       4.439  5.441     6.975      7.6     8.2
  Soybeans                   :       2.879  3.261     4.161      4.5     4.8
  Soybean meal               :        .615   .601     1.013       .9      .9
  Soybean oil                :        .228   .574      .433       .6      .8
                             :
Livestock products           :       3.042  3.795     6.320      6.6     6.9
  Beef, pork & variety meats :       1.504  1.848     3.206      3.4     3.6
  Hides & skins, incl. furs  :        .659   .845     1.423      1.5     1.6
Poultry & products           :        .803  1.090     1.720      1.9     2.1
Dairy products               :        .477   .378      .832       .8      .8
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :        .671   .789     1.260      1.3     1.4
Cotton & linters             :        .970  2.219     2.306      3.4     4.0
Seeds                        :        .423   .455      .619       .6      .7
Horticultural products       :       3.876  4.679     8.098      8.9     9.4
  Fruits & preparations      :       1.347  1.550     3.047      3.3     3.4
  Vegetables & preparations  :       1.058  1.295     2.169      2.4     2.6
  Tree nuts & preparations   :        .680   .666     1.124      1.1     1.1
Sugar, tropical, and other   :        .999   .995     1.931      2.1     2.0
                             : 
   Total 3/                  :      22.961 28.365    43.474     48.5    51.5
 
Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1993-95          
                             :    October-March    : Fiscal :    Fiscal 1995
      Commodity              :  1993/94 : 1994/95  :  1994  :      Forecast
                             :          :          :        :   Feb.  :  May  
                             :            --Million metric tons--
Wheat                        :   17.105   16.412    31.132      33.5    33.0
Wheat flour                  :     .520     .585     1.037       1.0     1.1
Coarse grains 2/             :   22.044   32.147    39.845      57.0    58.4
   Corn                      :   18.665   28.388    33.057      50.0    51.5
Feeds & fodders              :    6.176    6.895    11.797      12.1    12.4
Rice                         :    1.325    2.129     2.438       2.9     3.0
Oilseeds and products        :   15.694   20.809    24.154      30.5    31.1
  Soybeans                   :   11.219   14.871    16.364      21.4    21.8
  Soybean meal               :    2.879    3.382     4.859       5.4     5.4
  Soybean oil                :     .381     .898      .694        .9     1.1
Beef, pork & variety meats   :     .481     .586     1.025       1.1     1.1
Poultry meat                 :     .637     .925     1.364       1.6     1.8
Animal fats                  :     .650     .861     1.341       1.3     1.5
Cotton & linters             :     .752    1.363     1.639       2.2     2.3
Horticultural products       :    3.086    3.643     6.600       7.4     7.5
Other                        :    3.335    3.409     5.042       6.0     6.0
   Total agriculture         :   71.805   89.764   127.414     156.6   159.2
   Major bulk products 4/    :   52.445   66.922    91.418     117.0   118.5
                             :                                              
 1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.  4/ Includes wheat,
rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.
 
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