OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- SUMMARY               May 29, 1998
May 1998, AES-18
             Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.  The complete text of the report 
will be available 1-2 weeks following this summary release. 
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FISCAL 1998 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST REDUCED TO $55 BILLION

The forecast for fiscal year 1998 U.S. agricultural exports is lowered to 
$55 billion, $1 billion less than forecast in February. The primary reason 
for the decrease is increased export competition for corn and wheat.

Since February, U.S. corn exports are lowered 4 million tons to 37.5 million 
and the expected value dropped to $4.3 billion.  Wheat export volume and 
prices also are lowered, reducing expected wheat and flour exports to $4.1 
billion and 26.5 million tons. Soybean exports are now projected at $6.5 
billion, 3 percent less than February, with quantity down 4 percent. Stronger 
prices and higher export volume for most oilseed products more than offset 
the decline for soybeans.  

Continued poor economic performance and increased competition slowed exports 
to Asia.  The export forecast for Western Europe is also lowered because of
increased competition.  In contrast, shipments to Mexico and Canada are 
stronger than anticipated, and their forecasts are raised.

Fiscal 1998 U.S. agricultural import projections remain unchanged at $38
billion.  Vegetables now exceed coffee as the leading and fastest growing
import.  The export surplus is now forecast at $17 billion, 20 percent less  
than in 1997 and the smallest since fiscal 1991. 

Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1998
                   -- Year ending September 30 --
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Item                1994    1995    1996    1997    Forecast 1998
                                                      Feb.   May
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                                --Billion dollars--
Exports             43.9    54.6    59.8    57.3     56.0    55.0

Imports             26.6    29.9    32.6    35.8     38.0    38.0
                                                                       
Trade balance       17.3    24.7    27.2    21.5     18.0    17.0

                                --Million metric tons --
Export volume      127.5   169.7   158.4   147.3    149.2   142.2
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This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 12, 1998, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1997-1998
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                               October-March   Fiscal     Fiscal 1998
      Commodity                1997    1998    1997        Forecast  
                                                          Feb.     May
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                                        --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/           8.913   7.607    16.466    15.3     14.3
  Wheat & flour               1.960   2.088     4.263     4.4      4.1
  Rice                        0.578   0.641     0.962     1.0      1.0
  Coarse grains 2/            4.190   2.787     6.921     5.6      5.0
    Corn                      3.732   2.279     6.107     4.9      4.3
  Feeds and fodders           1.362   1.262     2.673     2.6      2.5

Oilseeds and products         7.414   8.005    11.437    11.2     11.6
  Soybeans                    4.961   4.972     6.950     6.7      6.5
  Soybean meal                1.113   1.373     1.74     61.4      1.8
  Soybean oil                 0.341   0.546     0.516     0.7      0.8

Livestock products            3.721   3.948     7.706     7.5      7.8
  Beef, pork & variety meats  1.842   2.040     3.977     4.0      4.0
  Hides & skins, incl. furs   0.860   0.726     1.693     1.5      1.5

Poultry & products            1.494   1.388     2.872     2.9      2.7
  Poultry meat                1.311   1.193     2.516      NA      2.3
Dairy products                0.360   0.476     0.842     0.9      0.9
Tobacco, unmanufactured       0.893   0.756     1.612     1.6      1.4
Cotton & linters              1.547   1.516     2.737     2.7      2.6
Seeds                         0.596   0.572     0.924     0.9      0.9
Horticultural products        5.308   5.202    10.598    10.8     10.6
  Fruits & preparations       1.579   1.524     3.412     3.3      3.3
  Vegetables & preparations   1.302   1.411     2.655     2.8      2.8
  Tree nuts & preparations    0.776   0.706     1.283     1.2      1.2
Sugar, tropical, and other    0.994   1.004     2.064     2.2      2.2

    Total 3/                 31.240  30.474    57.258    56.0     55.0
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1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats,and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.  NA = not 
available; first estimate made in May 1998.

Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1997-98
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                              October-March    Fiscal    Fiscal 1998
      Commodity                1997   1998      1997       Forecast
                                                        Feb.    May
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                               --Million metric tons--
Wheat                       10.703   12.962    24.531   28.0    26.0
Wheat flour                  0.256    0.247     0.504    0.5     0.5
Rice                         1.501    1.765     2.564    2.7     2.8
Coarse grains 1/             0.746   23.215    53.027   47.9    43.7
   Corn                     27.284   18.955    46.579   41.5    37.5
Feeds & fodders              6.225    5.893    12.259   12.7    11.7
Oilseeds and products       23.681   26.566    33.942   36.7    36.8
  Soybeans                  17.641   18.644    24.027   25.9    24.8
  Soybean meal               4.109    5.527     6.345    6.8     7.7
  Soybean oil                0.621    0.883     0.924    1.1     1.3
Beef, pork & variety meats   0.628    0.770     1.356    1.4     1.5
Poultry meat                 1.258    1.350     2.553    2.6     2.6
Animal fats                  0.477    0.600     1.028    0.9     1.1
Cotton & linters             0.906    0.934     1.648    1.6     1.6
Horticultural products       3.681    3.756     7.539    7.7     7.7
Other                        1.989    1.741     6.366    6.5     6.2
  Total agriculture         83.332   81.172   147.317  149.2   142.2
  Major bulk products 2/    61.497   57.520   105.797  106.1    98.9
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1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, 
rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.

Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1997-98
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                             October-March  Fiscal   Fiscal 1998
    Region                    1997   1998    1997     Forecast
                                                      Feb.   May
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                                     --Billion dollars--
Asia                         13.339  11.309   23.847   21.5   20.3
  Japan                       5.635   5.189   10.705   10.3    9.8  
  China                       1.223   1.113    1.774    1.6    1.6
  Hong Kong                   0.808   0.848    1.640    1.7    1.7
  Taiwan                      1.448   1.267    2.588    2.4    2.3
  South Korea                 1.983   1.196    3.287    2.4    2.0
  Southeast Asia              1.849   1.313    3.123    2.3    2.2
    Indonesia                 0.449   0.310    0.768     NA    0.5 
    Philippines               0.455   0.352    0.898    0.8    0.7
    Malaysia                  0.385   0.191    0.580     NA    0.3
    Thailand                  0.396   0.324    0.550     NA    0.4  
  South Asia                  0.393   0.378    0.728    0.8    0.7
Western Hemisphere            8.281   9.496   16.592   17.7   18.4   
  Canada                      3.197   3.464    6.620    6.9    7.0
  Mexico                      2.529   3.042    5.077    5.8    6.0
  Brazil                      0.271   0.338    0.461    0.5    0.5
  Venezuela                   0.281   0.294    0.548    0.6    0.6
  Other Latin America         2.003   2.357    3.886    3.9    4.3   
Western Europe                5.793   5.602    9.402    9.5    9.0
  European Union              5.550   5.400    8.785    8.8    8.5
Central and Eastern Europe    0.209   0.192    0.301    0.3    0.3
New Independent States 1/     0.872   0.788    1.593    1.2    1.2
  Russia                      0.687   0.630    1.281    1.0    1.0
Middle East                   1.233   1.288    2.506    2.5    2.6
  Turkey                      0.345   0.313    0.728     NA    0.6
  Saudi Arabia                0.284   0.314    0.589    0.6    0.6
Africa                        0.986   1.261    2.231    2.3    2.3
  North Africa                0.589   0.918    1.457    1.5    1.6
    Egypt                     0.366   0.570    0.918    0.9    1.0
  Sub-Saharan Africa          0.398   0.343    0.774    0.8    0.7
Oceania                       0.248   0.274    0.534    0.6    0.6
     Total 2/                31.241  30.475   57.258   56.0   55.0
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NA = not available; first estimate made in May 1998.
1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU), including 
the Baltic Republics.  2/ Totals include transshipments through Canada, but
transshipments are not distributed by country as previously.

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