OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- SUMMARY   August 28, 1998  
August 1998, AES-19
             Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.  The complete text of the report 
will be available 1-2 weeks following this summary release. 
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FISCAL 1999 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST AT $52 BILLION

Fiscal 1999 U.S. agricultural exports are projected at $52 billion,
down $2.5 billion from the revised fiscal 1998 forecast. Export volume
is projected up 6.7 million tons due to expected gains in wheat and
corn. However, a stronger dollar, large global supplies, and weak
demand are pressuring prices of agricultural products. Projected
soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to fall $1.5 billion from
fiscal 1998, reflecting sharply lower prices, while reduced shipments
are expected to lower cotton exports $900 million. The total value of
grain and feed exports is expected to be little changed from fiscal
1998 as higher grain export volumes offset lower prices.

Slower growth is expected in agricultural imports in fiscal 1999. The
value of imports is expected to reach $39.5 billion, up $1.5 billion
from fiscal 1998.

The projected decline in fiscal 1999 exports and the increase in
imports will narrow the U.S. agricultural trade surplus to $12.5
billion, the smallest since 1987.

The revised fiscal 1998 export forecast is down $500 million from May,
to $54.5 billion, reflecting weaker export unit values for wheat and
slowed soybean shipments. Fiscal 1998 imports, however, remains at $38
billion as previously projected. The expected fiscal 1998 surplus slips
slightly to $16.5 billion.       


Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1999
                    -- Year ending September 30 --
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Item       1994     1995   1996    1997   Forecast 1998 Fiscal 1999
                                            May    Aug.   projected
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                             --Billion dollars--
Exports     43.9     54.6   59.8    57.3    55.0    54.5    52.0

Imports     26.6     29.9   32.6    35.8    38.0    38.0    39.5

Balance     17.3     24.7   27.2    21.5    17.0    16.5    12.5

                             --Million metric tons --
Ex. volume  127.5   169.7  158.4   147.3   142.2   142.0   148.7
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This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the Aug. 12, 1998, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1997-1999
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                        October-June   Fiscal   Fiscal 1998   Fiscal 1999
   Commodity             1997   1998    1997     Forecast      Projected 
                                                May     Aug.
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                                       --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/     12.521 10.841  16.466   14.3   14.0      14.0
  Wheat & flour          2.835  2.910   4.263    4.1    3.8       4.2
  Rice                   0.803  0.921   0.962    1.0    1.1       1.0
  Coarse grains 2/       5.600  3.900   6.921    5.0    5.0       4.7
    Corn                 4.980  3.273   6.107    4.3    4.3       4.2
  Feeds and fodders      2.037  1.849   2.673    2.5    2.4       2.3

Oilseeds and products    9.551  9.680  11.437   11.6   11.3       9.5
  Soybeans               6.112  5.580   6.950    6.5    6.2       5.1
  Soybean meal           1.505  1.741   1.746    1.8    1.9       1.5
  Soybean oil            0.384  0.711   0.516    0.8    0.8       0.8

Livestock products       5.683  5.862   7.706    7.8    7.9       7.9
  Red meats              2.884  3.086   3.977    4.0    4.1       4.3
  Hides, skins, furs     1.300  1.073   1.693    1.5    1.4       1.4

Poultry & products       2.174  2.092   2.872    2.7    2.8       2.8
  Poultry meat           1.905  1.809   2.516    2.3    2.4       2.4
Dairy products           0.584  0.691   0.842    0.9    0.9       0.9
Tobacco, unmanufactured  1.391  1.213   1.612    1.4    1.4       1.4
Cotton & linters         2.268  2.105   2.737    2.6    2.6       1.7
Seeds                    0.754  0.716   0.924    0.9    0.9       0.9
Horticultural products   7.939  7.865  10.598   10.6   10.6      10.6
  Fruits & preparations  2.493  2.368   3.412    3.3    3.3       3.3
  Vegetables & prep.     2.025  2.185   2.655    2.8    2.8       2.9
  Tree nuts & prep.      0.956  0.938   1.283    1.2    1.3       1.3
Sugar, tropical, & other 1.509  1.533   2.064    2.2    2.1       2.2

    Total 3/            44.374 42.598  57.258   55.0   54.5      52.0
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1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 

Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1997-99
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                           October-June     Fiscal  Fiscal 1998  Fiscal 1999
  Commodity              1997  1998          1997    Forecast     Projected 
                                                     May   Aug.
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                                        --Million metric tons--
Wheat                   15.547  18.397     24.531    26.0  25.5     31.5
Wheat flour              0.355   0.328      0.504     0.5   0.5      0.5
Rice                     2.087   2.687      2.564     2.8   3.1      2.7
Coarse grains 1/        41.635  33.075     53.027    43.7  43.8     45.9
   Corn                 36.885  27.774     46.579    37.5  37.5     40.5
Feeds & fodders          9.371   8.962     12.259    11.7  11.7     11.9
Oilseeds & prod.        29.321  31.773     33.942    36.8  36.2     35.6
  Soybeans              21.215  21.016     24.027    24.8  23.5     23.3
  Soybean meal           5.450   7.387      6.345     7.7   8.4      8.2
  Soybean oil            0.693   1.130      0.924     1.3   1.3      1.3
Red meats                0.982   1.175      1.356     1.5   1.6      1.6
Poultry meat             1.872   2.070      2.553     2.6   2.7      2.8
Animal fats              0.768   0.967      1.028     1.1   1.3      1.1
Cotton & linters         1.356   1.319      1.648     1.6   1.6      1.1
Horticultural prod.      5.709   5.743      7.539     7.7   7.7      7.7
Other                    4.857   4.702      6.366     6.2   6.3      6.3
  Total agriculture    113.860 111.198    147.317   142.2 142.0    148.7
  Major bulk prod.2/    81.840  76.494    105.797    98.9  97.5    104.5
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1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice,
coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.

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