OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS                         December 02, 1997
December 1997, AES-16
               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the
Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC
20036-5831. This release contains only the text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S.
AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- tables and graphics are not included.

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U.S. Agricultural Exports
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FISCAL 1998 AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST UNCHANGED AT $58.5 BILLION 

Fiscal 1998 U.S. agricultural exports are projected at $58.5 billion, up $1.2
billion from the $57.3 billion shipped in fiscal year 1997. In the aggregate,
the export forecast remains unchanged from August as gains in soybeans offset
reductions in meats, wheat, and corn. This forecast includes an anticipated
slowdown in U.S. exports to Southeast Asian countries and South Korea. Exports
to these countries, currently forecast at $6.2 billion, reflect an estimated
$500 million downward adjustment due to the financial crisis. 

Fiscal 1998 imports remain at $38 billion, $2.2 billion above 1997.

The anticipated export surplus of $20.5 billion is unchanged from August
projections, but $1.0 billion less than the fiscal 1997 surplus.

        Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1998
                        -- Year ending September 30 --                     
                   Fiscal   Fiscal    Fiscal    Fiscal       Fiscal 1998 
Item                1994     1995      1996     1997          Forecast
                                                            Aug.     Dec.  
                                -- Billion dollars --
Exports            43.9     54.6      59.8      57.3       58.5     58.5

Imports            26.6     29.9      32.6      35.8       38.0     38.0    
Trade balance      17.3     24.7      27.2      21.5       20.5     20.5    
                               -- Million metric tons --
Export volumne    127.5    169.7     158.4     147.3      161.4    157.9

This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the November 10, 1997, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1995-1998
                           Fiscal   Fiscal  Fiscal    Fiscal 1998
Commodity                   1995     1996    1997       Forecast  
                                                      Aug      Dec              
                                 --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/     17.637     21.553   16.466    17.3    16.8 
  Wheat & flour          5.201      7.032    4.263     4.6     4.5 
  Rice                   1.050      1.004    0.962     1.0     1.0 
  Coarse grains 2/       7.411      9.338    6.921     7.5     6.9 
    Corn                 6.619      8.369    6.107     6.8     6.1 
  Feeds and fodders      2.511      2.627    2.673     2.5     2.6 

Oilseeds and products    9.119      9.670   11.437     9.9    11.0 
  Soybeans               5.274      6.312    6.950     6.1     6.7 
  Soybean meal           1.079      1.305    1.746     1.4     1.4 
  Soybean oil            0.809      0.272    0.516     0.6     0.7 

Livestock products       7.831      8.067    7.726     8.7     8.2 
  Beef, pork & 
   variety meats         4.038      4.343    3.977     4.8     4.3 
  Hides & skins, 
   incl. furs            1.738      1.677    1.693     1.8     1.8 

Poultry & products       2.340      2.898    3.094     3.0     3.2 
Dairy products           0.789      0.719    0.842     0.8     0.8 
Tobacco, unmanufactured  1.329      1.393    1.612     1.6     1.6 
Cotton & linters         3.496      3.028    2.737     2.8     2.7 
Seeds                    0.680      0.727    0.924     0.9     0.9 
Horticultural products   9.649     10.019   10.598    11.2    11.2 
  Fruits & preparations  3.255      3.311    3.412     3.5     3.5 
  Vegetables &   
   preparations          2.559      2.423    2.655     2.7     2.8 
  Tree nuts & 
   preparations          1.108      1.374    1.283     1.4     1.4 
Sugar, tropical, 
and other                1.759      1.721    1.825     2.3     2.2 

    Total 3/            54.629     59.795   57.261     58.5    58.5      
 1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats,and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.

Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1995-98      
                           Fiscal    Fiscal   Fiscal    Fiscal 1998
Commodity                  1995      1996     1997       Forecast
                                                      Aug     Dec      
                                     --Million metric tons--
Wheat                     32.094    33.716   24.531   30.0   28.5 
Wheat flour                1.184     0.470    0.504    0.5    0.5 
Rice                       3.767     2.831    2.564    2.7    2.7 
Coarse grains 1/          65.670    58.656   53.027   58.2   55.1 
   Corn                   58.645    52.681   46.579   52.0   48.5 
Feeds & fodders           13.483    12.065   12.259   12.4   12.7 
Oilseeds and products     34.050    30.759   33.942   36.2   37.1 
  Soybeans                23.584    22.372   24.027   26.0   26.7 
  Soybean meal             6.094     5.445    6.345    6.6    6.7 
  Soybean oil              1.216     0.450    0.924    1.0    1.1 
Beef, pork, & variety
  meats                    1.256     1.410    1.356    1.6    1.5 
Poultry meat               1.901     2.330    2.522    2.6    2.6 
Animal fats                1.725     1.376    1.028    0.9    0.9 
Cotton & linters           2.068     1.703    1.648    1.6    1.6 
Horticultural products     7.041     7.139    7.539    7.7    7.7 
Other                      5.442     5.916    0.000    7.0    7.0 
     Total agriculture   169.681   158.372  147.319  161.4  157.9 
     Major bulk
      products 2/        127.183   119.278  105.797  118.5  114.6 
 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice,
coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.

Printed copies of the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports will be available
in about a week. For more information contact Carolyn Whitton 202-694-5287. The
text of the report will also be available electronically, for details call 202-694-5050.
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