Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Northeast Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|June 2017

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Northeast Region

June 2017

National - Signifcant Events for March–May 2017

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies 

Regional - Climate Overview for March–May 2017

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

March 1–May 31, 2017

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

March 1–May 31, 2017

April

Highlights for the Northeast

Drought conditons eased during spring. See Climate 

Overview and Regional Impacts sectons for details.

A major nor’easter dropped up to 48 inches of snow on 

the Northeast from March 14–15. The 14th became the 

all-tme snowiest day on record at Binghamton, NY, and 

Scranton, PA, and the snowiest March day on record at 

Williamsport, PA, and Hartord, CT. The 2016–17 snow 

season (October–May) is Binghamton's snowiest on 

record afer having its least snowy season in 2015–16. 

Winds gusted up to 79 mph, with four hours of blizzard 

conditons in Lawrence, MA. In additon, Atlantc City, 

NJ, had its wetest March day on record. Impacts from 

the storm included power outages, coastal erosion and 

fooding, travel bans, and cancelled fights.

The Northeast had its warmest April on record, as did 

14 of the region's major climate sites. Bufalo, NY, had 

its wetest April on record. LaGuardia Airport, NY, and 

Burlington, VT, ted their warmest spring temperature on 

record on May 18.

During spring, 25 tornadoes (13 in Ohio, nine in 

Pennsylvania, two in Washington, D.C., and one in New 

York) touched down in the region. Pennsylvania had 

eight tornadoes on May 1, which is more than double 

the state's average for May. The tornadoes and straightline winds of up to 100 mph damaged hundreds of trees 

and dozens of buildings.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released on March 

2 showed 27% of the Northeast in a moderate 

or severe drought. Conditons eased during the 

month so that by early April, 11% of the region 

was in a drought. Above-normal precipitaton in 

April allowed conditons to contnue to improve. 

By late April, the Northeast became free of 

severe drought for the frst tme since late June 

2016. Above-normal precipitaton contnued 

in May, and by mid-month, the region became 

drought-free for the frst tme since mid-April 

2016. Abnormally dry conditons eased in 

Pennsylvania and Connectcut in early June but 

were introduced in portons of West Virginia 

and Ohio in mid-June.

The Northeast had its sixth wetest spring

since 1895 with 123% of normal precipitaton. 

All twelve states and Ohio were weter than 

normal, with nine ranking this spring among 

their top 20 wetest. Despite seven states being 

drier than normal, March precipitaton was 

101% of normal for the Northeast. Ohio was 

weter than normal. In April, the Northeast 

received 120% of normal precipitaton, with 

nine states and Ohio being weter than normal. 

Three states ranked this April among their 

top 20 wetest on record. The Northeast had 

its fourth wetest May with 145% of normal 

precipitaton. For all states except Connectcut, 

this May ranked within the top 20 wetest.

Spring was 0.4°F warmer than normal in 

the Northeast. Six of the region's 12 states 

saw above-normal temperatures, with three 

ranking this spring among their top 20 warmest 

since 1895. Ohio was also warmer than 

normal. In March, all states but West Virginia 

and Ohio were colder than normal, with the 

Northeast wrapping up the month 2.6°F below 

normal. The Northeast had its second warmest 

April on record at 4.5°F above normal. Five 

Northeast states and Ohio had a record warm 

April, with the other seven Northeast states 

ranking this April among their top ten warmest 

on record. May was 0.6°F colder than normal 

for the Northeast, with ten states plus Ohio 

experiencing below-normal temperatures. 

Drought in the Northeast

Normals based on 1981–2010

The contguous U.S. had its eighth warmest spring on record with an average temperature of 

53.5°F, 2.6°F above the 20th century average. With an average temperature of 46.2°F, 4.7°F above 

average, it was the ninth warmest March on record. April's average temperature of 53.8°F was 

2.7°F above average, making it the 11th warmest on record. May's average temperature of 60.6°F 

was 0.4°F above average. The contguous U.S. had its 11th wetest spring on record with 9.39 

inches precipitaton, 1.45 inches above average. The U.S. precipitaton total for March was 2.56 

inches, 0.05 inches above average. The U.S. had its second wetest April on record with 3.43 inches 

of precipitaton, which was 0.91 inches above average. May precipitaton totaled 3.31 inches, 0.40 

inches above average.

U.S. Drought Monitor

March

Released on

June 15, 2017

Released on

March 2, 2017
Regional - Impacts and Updates for March–May 2017

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Northeast Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|June 2017 

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Summer 2017 Northeast Region Partners

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Ofces, Atlantc

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Ofce for Coastal Management

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov

NOAA Research, Climate Program Ofce and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.research.noaa.gov

NOAA Natonal Sea Grant Ofce

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantc and Great Lakes

Regional Collaboraton Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton System

www.drought.gov

Consortum on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperatve Insttute for North Atlantc Research

www.cinar.org

Northeast Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

Mid-Atlantc RISA

www.midatlantcrisa.org

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature and 

Precipitation

Normal July–September 

average temperatures 

range from the upper 50s 

in northern New York and 

northern New England to 

the mid 70s in the MidAtlantc. NOAA's Climate 

Predicton Center (CPC) 

is calling for an increased 

chance of above-normal 

temperatures (lef map) 

for the Northeast and 

Ohio for July–September. 

The precipitaton outlook 

calls for equal chances of below-, near-, or 

above-normal precipitaton. Normal July–

September precipitaton ranges from less than 

10 inches near Lake Ontario in New York to 

more than 15 inches in New York's Catskills 

and higher elevatons of Vermont and New 

Hampshire. CPC indicates that ENSO-neutral 

conditons are favored during summer, so ENSO 

was not a major factor in the temperature and 

precipitaton outlooks. The forecast for the 

Northeast was based on computer models and 

long-term climate trends.

While the Northeast was drought-free as 

of early June, conditons contnued to be 

monitored. Areas of drought could redevelop 

if there were a long period of dryness and 

unusually warm temperatures, partcularly in 

spots with lingering groundwater and reservoir 

issues.

40

A: Above-normal

EC: Equal chances of 

above-, near, or belownormal 

#: Probability of abovenormal

March average streamfow was normal or below 

normal for a majority of the Northeast, while April 

and May average streamfow was normal or above 

normal. Groundwater and reservoir levels increased 

during spring, returning to normal or above normal 

in many areas, but remaining below normal in a few 

areas. The Massachusets Water Resources Authority 

urged customers to conserve water as the Quabbin 

Reservoir contnued to be below normal capacity 

during spring. On April 20, Manchester, NH, ofcials 

lifed voluntary water restrictons that had been in 

efect since October 2016 as the city’s water supply 

had returned to full capacity. According to an April 21 

press release, all of Connectcut Water’s reservoirs 

throughout the state were at 100% of capacity, so 

the water supply advisory was lifed. Aquarion’s 

Bridgeport and Greenwich, CT, reservoirs were at near 

to above-average capacity in April and May, but its 

Stamford reservoir was stll below average capacity

at 88.4% on April 25 and 92.5% on May 23. All 34 

reservoir systems monitored by the Connectcut 

Department of Public Health were at 89% of capacity 

or greater for April, with 28 systems at 100% capacity 

or greater. The overall state capacity was 100.4%. The 

Drought Alert for Worcester, MA, was lifed efectve 

May 22 as the city's water supply was at 98.0%. With 

improving conditons, drought declaratons eased in 

several states.

A

Drought

Mild temperatures led to an early start to the tck 

season this spring and likely contributed to a greater

number of tcks. Afer early development due to a mild 

February, about half of the Yoshino cherry blossoms 

in Washington, D.C., were damaged by frost in midMarch. Above-normal precipitaton in April and May 

alleviated abnormally dry and drought conditons in 

the Northeast. Preliminary data indicated that the Lake 

Ontario basin had its wetest May since 1900 and the 

lake had its all-tme highest monthly mean water level

since 1918. Along the shorelines of Lake Ontario and 

the St. Lawrence River, buildings, roads, docks, and 

beaches were fooded. The high water washed away 

land, trees, and breakwalls, and lef a few homes on 

the verge of falling into the lake. For more informaton 

on the Lake Ontario fooding, see the Great Lakes 

Spring 2017 Quarterly: www.drought.gov/drought/

resources/reports. Saturated soil caused burials at a 

historic cemetery in Ogdensburg, NY, to be delayed. 

Wet conditons, such as standing water in felds, 

delayed plantng and feld work in much of the region. 

Some farmers may not be able to plant their intended 

acreage in tme, while others had to replant crops. 

Pastures generally benefted from the wet weather, 

though. Above-normal precipitaton actvated a fungus

that kills gypsy moth caterpillars; however, with a 

large caterpillar populaton again this year, signifcant 

defoliaton of trees is possible and it remains unclear 

how many will be killed of by the fungus.

Spring Conditions

Atlantic Hurricane Season

Average 

streamfow 

for May was 

normal or above 

normal for most 

of the region. 

Credit: USGS 

WaterWatch.

50

NOAA’s 2017 Atlantc hurricane outlook 

indicates there is a 45% chance that this 

season will be more actve than normal, a 35% 

chance the season will be near-normal, and a 

20% chance the season will be below normal. 

With an above-normal season most likely, the 

outlook calls for “a 70% likelihood of 11–17 

named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), 

of which 5–9 could become hurricanes (winds 

of 74 mph or higher), including 2–4 major 

hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 

mph or higher).” The Atlantc hurricane season 

runs from June 1 through November 30, with a 

peak from mid-August to late October. However, 

there has already been a tropical system this 

year (which was accounted for in the forecast): 

Tropical Storm Arlene in April. The system 

was short-lived and did not impact land, but 

according to NOAA’s Natonal Hurricane Center, 

it was only the second tropical storm in April 

since satellite data began.

Factors leading to the forecast for an abovenormal season included near- to above-average 

sea surface temperatures in the main area of 

the Atlantc where hurricanes develop, nearto weaker-than-average vertcal wind shear 

(change in directon and/or speed with alttude) 

in this main development area, and expected 

ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño conditons. 

Above: A nearly submerged dock in 

Sodus Bay, NY. Credit: Mary Austerman/

NYSG. Below: A saturated feld in Aurora, 

NY. Credit: Jenn Thomas-Murphy.