OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY                   May 30, 1996
              Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR
U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is available 2-3 working days following release of
this summary.
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FISCAL 1996 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST REMAINS AT $60 BILLION
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is unchanged from
February's $60 billion.  The value of wheat, corn, cotton, and poultry
exports is revised upward, but reductions for  oilseeds, hides, and
horticultural products are offsetting. Wheat prices have been higher than
expected because of poor growing conditions for the 1996 U.S. crop. Strong
import demand has not only raised corn export volume, but raised expected
prices.  The value of soybean and product exports is projected lower as
soybean prices decline because of increased foreign exports and weaker demand
for U.S. soybean products. Total export volume is lowered slightly to 160.4
million tons.
 
Major country changes include a $600-million increase to Mexico, reflecting
improved bulk commodity sales. Exports to China and South Korea are reduced
to reflect lower than anticipated shipments to date.
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural imports is raised $1 billion
to $30.5 billion.  Higher cocoa, sugar, and horticultural imports account for
the increase.  As a result, the U.S. agricultural trade surplus forecast is
reduced $1 billion to $29.5 billion in fiscal 1996.  The forecast still
surpassed the previous record of $26.6 billion set in fiscal 1981.
 
          Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1991-1996
                         -- Year ending September 30
         :        :        :        :        :        :    Forecast 
Item     :  1991  :  1992  :  1993  :  1994  :  1995  :      1996
         :        :        :        :        :        :  Feb.  :  May
         :                      -- Billion dollars --
         :
Exports  :  37.5    42.3     42.5       43.5    54.1     60.0     60.0
Imports  :  22.6    24.3     24.5       26.4    29.5     29.5     30.5
         :
Trade    :
 balance :  14.9    18.0     18.0       17.1    24.6     30.5     29.5
         :
         :                 -- Million metric tons --
Export   :
 volume  : 129.4   143.6    146.4      126.8   169.2    161.6    160.4
         :
This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 10, 1996, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
 
          Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1994-96
                             :   October-March   : Fiscal :  Fiscal 1996
      Commodity              : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :  1995  :   Forecast
                             :         :         :        : Feb. :  May
                             :             --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/          :  8.524    11.030    17.637    21.0   22.0
  Wheat & flour              :  2.541     3.446     5.201     6.7    6.9
  Rice                       :   .574      .541     1.050     1.0    1.1
  Coarse grains 2/           :  3.371     4.909     7.411     8.7    9.5
    Corn                     :  2.974     4.361     6.619     7.8    8.6
  Feeds and fodders          :  1.279     1.365     2.511     3.0    2.9
                             :
Oilseeds and products        :  5.441     5.837     9.119    10.0    9.4
  Soybeans                   :  3.261     3.965     5.274     6.3    6.1
  Soybean meal               :   .601      .668     1.079     1.3    1.1
  Soybean oil                :   .574      .199      .809      .5     .4
                             :
Livestock products           :  3.816     4.084     7.808     8.8    8.6
  Beef, pork & variety meats :  1.844     2.176     4.044     4.7    4.7
  Hides & skins, incl. furs  :   .853      .787     1.719     1.9    1.6
Poultry & products           :  1.090     1.356     2.210     2.4    2.7
Dairy products               :   .365      .360      .812      .9     .8
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :   .789      .855     1.329     1.4    1.5
Cotton & linters             :  2.219     2.313     3.496     2.7    3.0
Seeds                        :   .455      .460      .680      .7     .7
Horticultural products       :  4.679     4.643     9.110    10.0    9.4
  Fruits & preparations      :  1.550     1.590     3.263     3.5    3.4
  Vegetables & preparations  :  1.295     1.185     2.538     2.6    2.5
  Tree nuts & preparations   :   .666      .738     1.108     1.2    1.2
Sugar, tropical, and other   :   .989      .951     1.940     2.1    1.9
                             :
   Total 3/                  : 28.367    31.889    54.141    60.0   60.0
 
         Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1994-96
                             :   October-March   :  Fiscal:   Fiscal 1996
      Commodity              : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :  1995  :    Forecast
                             :         :         :        : Feb. :  May
                             :            --Million metric tons--
Wheat                        : 16.412    16.814    32.094    33.5   32.0
Wheat flour                  :   .585      .218     1.184     1.0     .5
Rice                         :  2.129     1.524     3.767     3.2    3.0
Coarse grains 2/             : 32.147    33.663    65.670    58.7   61.4
   Corn                      : 28.388    30.069    58.645    53.0   55.5
Feeds & fodders              :  6.895     6.661    13.483    13.8   13.5
Oilseeds and products        : 20.809    19.342    34.050    30.9   30.1
  Soybeans                   : 14.871    14.563    23.584    22.0   22.0
  Soybean meal               :  3.382     2.952     6.094     5.3    4.9
  Soybean oil                :   .868      .329     1.216      .8     .7
Beef, pork & variety meats   :   .583      .685     1.262     1.5    1.5
Poultry meat                 :   .925     1.168     1.901     2.2    2.3
Animal fats                  :   .861      .789     1.725     2.1    1.7
Cotton & linters             :  1.363     1.286     2.068     1.7    1.7
Horticultural products 4/    :  3.643     3.569     7.001     7.5    7.2
Other                        :  2.754     2.943     4.999     5.5    5.5
   Total agriculture         : 89.106     88.662  169.204   161.6  160.4
   Major bulk products 5/    : 66.922     67.850  127.183   119.1  120.1
 
 1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.  4/ Products
measured in liters not included.  5/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains,
soybeans, and cotton.
 
 Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1994-96 1/
                             :   October-March   : Fiscal :  Fiscal 1996
            Region           : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :  1995  :    Forecast
                             :         :         :        :   Feb. :  May
                             :           --Billion dollars--
                             :  
  Western Europe             :  5.199      5.823    8.781     9.4      9.4
    European Union 2/        :  5.006      5.621    8.416     9.0      9.0
    Other Western Europe     :   .193       .202     .365      .4       .4
                             :
  Central and Eastern Europe :   .201       .215     .306      .3       .3
                             :
  Former Soviet Union        :   .576       .913    1.158     1.5      1.6
    Russia                   :   .460       .646     .911     1.3      1.3
                             :
  Asia                       : 11.988     13.848   23.980    27.7      27.6
    Japan                    :  5.028      5.988   10.450    11.7      12.0
    China                    :  1.278      1.204    2.412     2.9       2.5
    Other East Asia          :  3.740      4.155    7.560     9.0       8.3
      Taiwan                 :  1.273      1.437    2.552     2.8       2.8
      South Korea            :  1.729      1.958    3.575     4.6       4.0
      Hong Kong              :   .734       .759    1.425     1.6       1.5
    Southeast Asia           :  1.370      2.038    2.582     3.0       3.8
      Philippines            :   .319       .450     .675      .8        .9
    South Asia               :   .572       .463     .976     1.1       1.0
      Pakistan               :   .286       .290     .341      .5        .4
                             :
Middle East                  :  1.324      1.463    2.426     2.7       2.7
      Israel                 :   .239       .330     .462      .5        .6
      Saudi Arabia           :   .263       .330     .486      .5        .6
                             :
  Africa                     :  1.571      1.745    2.988     3.2       3.2
    North Africa             :  1.161      1.251    2.111     2.2       2.3
      Egypt                  :   .740       .822    1.378     1.4       1.4
      Algeria                :   .255       .194     .461      .5        .4
    Sub-Saharan Africa       :   .410       .494     .877     1.0       1.0
                             :
  Latin America              :  4.280      4.799    8.103     8.5       8.9
    Mexico                   :  1.961      2.326    3.699     3.8       4.4
    Other Latin America      :  2.319      2.311    4.404     4.7       4.5
      Brazil                 :   .466       .271     .638      .6        .4
      Venezuela              :   .238       .216     .496      .5        .4
  Canada                     :  2.896      2.861    5.836     6.1       5.9
                             :
  Oceania                    :   .332       .223     .562      .6        .4
                             :
       Total                 : 28.367     31.889   54.141    60.0      60.0
                             :
  Developed countries        : 13.695     15.224   26.092    28.3      28.3
  Developing countries       : 12.617     14.333   24.173    27.0      27.3
  Other countries            :  2.055      2.332    3.876     4.7       4.4
                             :
1/  Country totals are adjusted for transshipments through Canada.
2/  Austria, Finland, and Sweden are included in the European Union.
 
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