ALASKA and NORTHWESTERN CANADA 

Weather and Climate Highlights and Impacts, March–May 2016; Climate Outlook July–September 2016

BARROW: April was exceptionally windy. Average wind speeds 

exceeded 20 mph on 12 straight days, resulting in much drifting 

snow. Wind also broke off shorefast ice and opened up huge leads 

more typical of June.

BERING SEA: Seasonal maximum ice 

cover of 5 million km2, second lowest 

since 1979. Ice never got much south of 

St. Matthew Island.

DEERING: Flooding May 11–13 as an ice 

jam in the Inmachuk River and shorefast ice 

in Kotzebue Sound impounded flowing 

water in rivers. Road to airport closed for a 

day with water up to 3 ft deep. 

BETHEL: Earliest breakup of Kuskokwim 

River ice, on April 20, with raspberries 

blooming in mid-May, much earlier than is 

typical. Bethel recorded its warmest Spring 

in recorded history.

FAIRBANKS: Third earliest meltout of 

snowpack (April 8). Green-up occurred April 

26, and last freezing temperature of spring 

(May 5) was second earliest on record. 

Fairbanks recorded its warmest spring in 

recorded history.

CIRCLE: Earliest breakup of Yukon River 

ice, and for the first time in memory, boats 

were in the water in April. 

EAGLE: Second earliest breakup of Yukon 

River ice, April 26. Shortly thereafter, an ice 

jam formed downstream of Eagle and 

inundated low-lying areas until April 29, when 

the jam released. 

SOUTHERN BEAUFORT: Lowest 

ice coverage (76.9%) ever recorded in 

May. This exceeds the previous record 

set in 1970 (81.8%), and is well below 

average ice coverage of 94.1% over the 

last 30 years.

YUKON: On the Yukon River, ice 

breakup at Whitehorse on April 23 was 

the earliest on record going back to 1896. 

Green-up across the territory was two 

weeks ahead of normal.

DAWSON: Warmest spring since 1900! 

Average March–May temp of 3.3°C 

(compared to normal of -1.3°C).

WHITEHORSE: Warmest spring 

on record since 1942, 3.9°C warmer 

than normal (4.6°C compared to 

normal of 0.7°C).

Spring 2016 was the warmest spring on record for 

Alaska, according to the National Centers for 

Environmental Information (NCEI) data since 1925. 

The average temperature for Alaska was 32°F, 8°

warmer than the 20th century average and 2°

warmer than the previous warmest spring (1998).

MACKENZIE BASIN: 

Despite near-normal 

precipitation in Fort Liard, 

the southwest portion of 

the basin was much drier 

than normal due to above 

seasonal temperatures and 

increased snow 

sublimation.

YAKUTAT: Low water levels 

on the Situk River in April–early 

May forced cancellation of some 

steelhead sport fishing charters. 

WRANGELL: Salmonberries 

were ripe at end of May, nearly 

two months earlier than is typical. 

KLAWOCK: High temperature 

of 71°F on March 31 is the 

highest on record for Alaska for 

March. 

ANCHORAGE: Light 

snow after a week of mild 

days caused icy roads, 

resulting in more than 70 

auto accidents on March 4. 

Iditarod’s ceremonial start 

March 5 shortened due to 

lack of snow. Spring kicked 

off with 6–11 in of snow on 

March 19, the biggest snow 

in urban Anchorage since 

March 2013.

FORT ST-JOHN: Tied spring of 

2015 for warmest spring on record, 

2.5°C warmer than the normal of 3.0°C. 

On April 18, a vigorous cold front 

swept through the Peace Country, 

producing strong and dry winds. Wind 

caused rapid spread of several 

wildfires. On May 20, 20 cm of snow 

fell, setting a new daily record. 

Ironically, the snow was welcomed 

as it helped mitigate drought and 

forest fire conditions. 

1
Precipitation, March

–May 2016

Temperature, March–May 2016

Spring is the driest season of the 

year over most of the northwestern 

North America. This spring brought 

near to significantly above normal 

precipitation across much of the 

region. The wettest areas, relative to 

normal, were generally in southern 

locations, a lingering impact of strong 

El Niño. There was also a belt of 

significantly above normal 

precipitation across inland areas, 

though total precipitation was not 

excessive, In contrast to winter 

2015-16, only a few areas were 

significantly drier than normal.

Specific sites show total precipitation, 

in/mm, for the three months 

“Wet / Dry” = within wettest/driest 

third of values compared to 

1981–2010 reference period 

Data and analyses are preliminary 

and subject to revision. 

Temperatures were significantly 

above normal across all of Alaska, 

the Yukon, western Northwest 

Territories and northern British 

Columbia this spring. Numerous 

sites broke records for the warmest 

spring on record. The mild 

conditions were due to the strong 

El Niño and associated warm 

Pacific Ocean and unusually low 

sea ice coverage in the Bering Sea. “Above / Below Normal” = within 

warmest/coolest third of values 

compared to 1981–2010 reference 

period. 

Data and analyses are preliminary 

and subject to revision

Source: NOAA and ECCC 

2

Source: NOAA and ECCC 

Yukon River at Eagle, April 27, 2016

Photo credit: Gary Millard

Photo credit: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Ice Concentration Comparison, May 31, 2015 vs 2016

Rankings of Temperature Records: 

A very warm spring across Alaska and Northwestern Canada

Sea ice retreat patterns during the spring showed both similarities and big differences between this year (right) and 2015 (left). The seasonal sea ice maximum extent in the Bering Sea did not occur until the first days of April, but then melted

rapidly. Nonetheless, by the end of May 2016 there was somewhat more remnant ice in the northern Bering Sea than the previous year. Meltout in the Chukchi Sea was, overall, similar to 2015, though with more open water farther north

along the western North Slope coast at the end of this May compared to 2015. The big difference was in the Beaufort Sea, with large areas of open water beyond the shorefast ice this year, compared to much more extensive ice pack in the

spring of 2015.

(Sources: NOAA, ECCC)

Ice melt in the southern Beaufort Sea is off to an early start in 2016. Historically (1981–2010), ice breakup in the 

southern Beaufort Sea begins in the first half of June. In 2016, breakup conditions began at the end of April.

At the end of May 2016, ice extent in the Beaufort Sea was at a record low for this time of year. These 

conditions are not normally seen until the end of July or early August. This continues a trend of early breakup in 

the area, as observed in 2008, 2010–2012, and 2015.

Areas in red indicate below-normal ice concentration based on statistics between 1981 and 2010 (interpolated 

between May 15 and June 11). A large area of the southern Beaufort Sea was ice free as of June 6, 2016. 

(Source: ECCC)

3
Precipitation Outlook: Jul–Sep 2016

Temperature Outlook: Jul–Sep 2016 What Effect Does El Niño/La Niña Have On Our Weather?

El Niño episodes feature a strong jet stream and storm track across the southern

part of the United States, and less storminess and milder-than-average conditions

across the North.

La Niña episodes feature a very wave-like jet stream flow over the United States

and Canada, with colder and stormier than average conditions across the North,

and warmer and less stormy conditions across the South.

The shades of orange and red indicate a moderate probability (40–60%) of

significantly above normal temperatures right across Alaska, the Yukon, and

British Columbia. this summer. The strength of the temperature anomaly is

forecast to be 1 to 2°Celsius or 3 to 4°Fahrenheit across inland areas and

lower along the coast. Heat is one of the key ingredients for the development

of thunderstorms and forest fires. Despite a relatively slow start to the fire

season in the northwest, a warmer than normal summer forecast may lead to

a busy forest fire season. Accelerated ice melt and drought are other

potential impacts to consider with a warm forecast.

There is 33 to 40% chance of significantly wetter than normal conditions for

northwest and western Alaska this summer. Meanwhile, for eastern Alaska

and northwestern Canada, there is no clear signal indicated in the

precipitation forecast. Summer time precipitation comes primarily from small

scale convective clouds as oppose to large synoptic scale storms during fall

and winter. Therefore, long term precipitation forecasts are challenging

during the summer and have greater uncertainty than the ones for

temperature.

Content and graphics prepared in partnership with the Alaska Center for Climate 

Assessment and Policy, NOAA National Weather Service Alaska Region, and 

Environment and Climate Change Canada. 

ALASKA REGION PARTNERS: Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and 

Policy, Alaska Climate Research Center, Alaska Climate Science Center, 

Cryosphere Today, NOAA / NWS Weather Forecast Offices, NOAA / NESDIS / 

NCEI, Scenarios Network for Alaska + Arctic Planning. 

NOAA ALASKA REGION CONTACTS: 

JAMES PARTAIN 

james.partain@noaa.gov

RICK THOMAN richard.thoman@noaa.gov

ncei.noaa.gov • #regionalclimateoutlooks

WESTERN CANADA PARTNER: 

Environment and Climate Change 

Canada (ECCC). 

ECCC CONTACTS: 

KEN KWOK ken.kwok@canada.ca

MATT MACDONALD 

matt.macdonald@canada.ca 

4

Sea surface temperatures over the

Pacific Ocean play a significant role in

characterizing temperatures over Alaska

and western Canada. Given that our

weather primarily arrives from the ocean,

air masses passing over warmer than

normal water will inherently be milder and

produce milder than normal conditions.

Such was the case this past spring.

The strength of sea surface temperature

anomalies along the equatorial Pacific

drives El Niño and the Southern

Oscillation (ENSO). Temperatures in the

El Niño reference region 3.4 have been

anomalously warm since August 2014

and peaked this past winter to produce a

record strong El Niño. This year’s

incredibly mild winter and spring were a

result of the warmer than normal waters.

Conditions in the equatorial Pacific are

finally transitioning back to near-normal

or ENSO neutral conditions. Looking at

long-term climate models, there is good

consensus from both American and

Canadian models that waters will

continue to cool and that La Niña

conditions will develop by this fall.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is

indicating a 75% chance that La Niña

conditions will persist through the

2016-17 winter. La Niña is defined by five

consecutive three-month periods with

negative temperature anomalies of 0.5°C

or more. It’s effects on weather over

Alaska and western Canada are

presented in the La Niña infographic.

(Sources: NOAA, CPC, ECCC)

(Sources: NOAA, CPC, ECCC)