OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- SUMMARY             November 30, 1998
November 1998, AES-20
             Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.  The complete text of the report
will be available 3-4 weeks following this summary release. 
EXPECTED FISCAL 1999 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS LOWERED TO $50.5 BILLION
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Fiscal 1999 U.S. agricultural exports are reduced to $50.5 billion,
$1.5 billion under the August forecast, largely reflecting lower
commodity prices and reduced poultry and horticulture export volumes. 
Export volume estimates, however, are increased to 149.8 million tons,
as grain shipments are expected to exceed 1998.  The corn export volume
is increased to 42.5 million tons, but value remains unchanged at $4.2
billion as price expectations have declined.  Sales of horticultural
products and poultry meats have slowed considerably since August, and
projections are lowered.  Horticultural exports are forecast at $10.1
billion, $500 million less than in August, and are now also down 2
percent from 1998.  Appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the
Canadian dollar is partly responsible for this slowdown. Poultry meat
exports to Russia virtually ceased in the wake of Russia's financial
crisis.  Expected 1999 U.S. poultry meat exports are reduced to $1.8
billion, 25 percent less than the August forecast.

Expected U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1999 also have been
lowered since August, to $38.5 billion, but are still expected to
exceed 1998 by 4 percent.  Growth of fruit, beverage, and tobacco
imports will be slower than earlier anticipated. The agricultural
export surplus is expected to drop to $12 billion, its lowest since
fiscal 1987.

       Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1999
                    -- Year ending September 30 --
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Item                1994       1995    1996    1997   1998   1999 Projected
                                                              Aug.     Nov.
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                                  --Billion dollars--
Exports             43.9       54.6    59.8    57.3    53.6   52.0     50.5
                                                                               
       
Imports             26.6       29.9    32.6    35.8    37.0   39.5     38.5
                                                                       
Balance             17.3       24.7    27.2    21.5    16.6   12.5     12.0

                                   --Million metric tons --
Ex. volume         127.5      169.7   158.4   147.3   142.0  148.7    149.8
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This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the Nov. 10, 1998, 
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1996-1999
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                                  Fiscal  Fiscal  Fiscal         Fiscal 1999
  Commodity                        1996    1997   1998            Projected 
                                                                 Aug.   Nov.
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                                          --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/              21.553  16.466  14.109         14.0    13.9
  Wheat & flour                   7.032   4.263   3.887          4.2     4.2
  Rice                            1.004   0.962   1.134          1.0     1.0
  Coarse grains 2/                9.338   6.921   4.990          4.7     4.7
    Corn                          8.369   6.107   4.261          4.2     4.2
  Feeds and fodders               2.627   2.673   2.411          2.3     2.3

Oilseeds and products             9.670  11.437  11.090          9.5     9.3
  Soybeans                        6.312   6.950   6.117          5.1     5.1
  Soybean meal                    1.305   1.746   1.944          1.5     1.4
  Soybean oil                     0.272   0.516   0.881          0.8     0.8

Livestock products                8.067   7.706   7.626          7.9     8.1
  Beef, pork & variety meats      4.343   3.977   4.045          4.3     4.5
  Hides & skins, incl. furs       1.677   1.693   1.358          1.4     1.5

Poultry & products                2.730   2.872   2.712          2.8     2.3
  Poultry meat                    2.353   2.516   2.347          2.4     1.8
Dairy products                    0.719   0.842   0.897          0.9     0.9
Tobacco, unmanufactured           1.393   1.612   1.448          1.4     1.4
Cotton & linters                  3.028   2.737   2.537          1.7     1.6
Seeds                             0.727   0.924   0.838          0.9     0.9
Horticultural products           10.019  10.598  10.318         10.6    10.1
  Fruits & preparations           3.311   3.412   3.202          3.3     3.0
  Vegetables & preparations       2.423   2.655   2.805          2.9     2.8
  Tree nuts & preparations        1.374   1.283   1.215          1.3     1.3
Sugar, tropical, and other        1.889   2.067   2.051          2.2     2.0

    Total 3/                     59.795  57.261  53.629         52.0    50.5
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1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats,
and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.  4/ Includes wheat, rice,
coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.
Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1996-99
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                             Fiscal    Fiscal    Fiscal         Fiscal 1999
Commodity                     1996      1997      1998          Projected 
                                                               Aug.    Nov.
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                                     --Million metric tons--
Wheat                         33.716    24.531    25.800       31.5   31.5
Wheat flour                    0.470     0.504     0.459        0.5    0.5
Rice                           2.831     2.564     3.315        2.7    3.0
Coarse grains 1/              58.656    53.027    43.960       45.9   48.2
   Corn                       52.681    46.579    37.697       40.5   42.5
Feeds & fodders               12.065    12.259    11.688       11.9   11.9
Oilseeds and products         30.759    33.942    36.018       35.6   35.1
  Soybeans                    22.372    24.027    23.287       23.3   23.1
  Soybean meal                 5.445     6.345     8.464        8.2    7.8
  Soybean oil                  0.450     0.924     1.396        1.3    1.2
Beef, pork & variety meats     1.410     1.356     1.559        1.6    1.7
Poultry meat                   2.330     2.553     2.663        2.8    2.3
Animal fats                    1.376     1.056     1.365        1.1    1.3
Cotton & linters               1.703     1.648     1.602        1.1    1.0
Horticultural products         7.139     7.539     7.414        7.7    7.3
Other                          5.917     6.338     6.174        6.3    6.0
  Total agriculture          158.372   147.317   142.017      148.7  149.8
  Major bulk products 2/     119.278   105.797    97.964      104.5  106.8
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1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice,
coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.
           Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1996-99
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                           Fiscal      Fiscal    Fiscal       Fiscal 1999
Region                      1996       1997      1998           Forecast
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                                           --Billion dollars--
Asia                         26.018    23.873    19.668         18.0
  Japan                      11.882    10.713     9.459          8.8
  China                       1.828     1.774     1.514          1.4
  Hong Kong                   1.534     1.640     1.568          1.5
  Taiwan                      2.927     2.588     1.971          1.6
  South Korea                 3.731     3.293     2.245          2.0
  Southeast Asia              3.386     3.136     2.282          2.1
    Indonesia                 0.909     0.768     0.529          0.5
    Philippines               0.909     0.898     0.744          0.6
    Malaysia                  0.628     0.580     0.310          0.3
    Thailand                  0.600     0.562     0.449          0.4
  South Asia                  0.730     0.728     0.623          0.6
Western Hemisphere           15.995    16.604    18.370         17.5
  Canada                      6.004     6.620     7.022          6.7
  Mexico                      5.023     5.077     5.956          5.6
  Brazil                      0.593     0.461     0.566          0.5
  Venezuela                   0.451     0.552     0.516          0.5
  Other Latin America         3.925     3.893     4.310          4.2
Western Europe                9.542     9.617     8.844          8.5
  European Union              9.180     8.997     8.508          8.3
Central and Eastern Europe    0.408     0.317     0.320          0.3
New Independent States 1/     1.666     1.593     1.456          1.5
  Russia                      1.251     1.281     1.103          1.2
Middle East                   2.593     2.562     2.285          2.1
  Turkey                      0.621     0.742     0.658          0.6
  Saudi Arabia                0.580     0.630     0.535          0.5
Africa                        3.190     2.265     2.167          2.1
  North Africa                2.257     1.480     1.475          1.5
    Egypt                     1.532     0.928     0.939          0.9
  Sub-Saharan Africa          0.933     0.785     0.692          0.6
Oceania                       0.478     0.534     0.545          0.5
     Total 2/                59.795    57.261    53.629         50.5
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1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU),
including the Baltic Republics.  2/ Transshipments through Canada are
distributed by country for fiscal 1996 and 1997, but included in the
total only for fiscal 1998 and 1999.

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