SUGAR & SWEETENRS SITUATION & OUTLOOK                       (SSSV20N1-Summary)
 
                               March 17, 1995
 
World Sugar Production Increased; Record U.S. Production Anticipated
 
Global sugar production in 1994/95 is forecast to fall short of consumption for
the third straight year.  USDA's revised forecasts for world sugar production
and consumption are 113.6 and 114.1 million metric tons, respectively.  The
implied shortfall of 500,000 tons represents a narrowing of the deficit
from the December estimate of 1.2 million tons.  Low global stocks and reduced
exportable supplies for some key exporters, such as the European Union (EU) and
Cuba, and increased import demand for some key importers, especially China,
help explain the recent run-up in world sugar prices to the highest level in 5
years.
 
World sugar production for 1994/95 is projected to 113.6 metric tons, raw
value, up 1.0 million tons from the forecast published in the December Sugar
and Sweetener Situation and Outlook, and 3.6 million tons above the revised
estimate for 1993/94.  The upturn in the 1994/95 forecast is largely attributed
to higher production forecasts for Brazil, Mexico, and the United States in the
Western Hemisphere and Thailand, Pakistan, and Australia in the Eastern
Hemisphere.  These upward revisions more than offset downward revisions in
Poland, Russia, and Ukraine and lower production now expected for Turkey,
Indonesia, and the Philippines.  For Cuba, the forecast remains unchanged at
3.2 million tons, the lowest since the early 1940's, reflecting the
deterioration of the Cuban economy and its inability to plant, cultivate,
harvest, and process sugarcane efficiently.
 
Forecast world consumption was raised moderately by 350,000 tons from the
December estimate to 114.1 million tons, 1.0 percent above the revised estimate
for 1993/94.  Growth in sugar consumption is expected to be particularly strong
during 1994/95 in China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Brazil, which together
are forecast to use an additional 1.9 million tons in 1994/95 than a year
earlier. In China, the increase represents a partial recovery from the apparent
decline in sugar use in 1993/94.  In sharp contrast, sugar consumption is
expected to contract in Ukraine and the Russian Federation, which until recent
years ranked among the world's highest per capita sugar users.  Ukraine's
consumption is expected to fall 4.2 percent to 2.3 million tons, compared with
2.7-2.9 million in the early 1990's. For 1994/95, sugar consumption in the
Russian Federation is expected to fall 12.1 percent to 5.1 million tons,
largely reflecting higher prices. 
 
U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1995 (October 1, 1994 to September 30,
1995), is forecast at 8.24 million short tons, raw value, up 7.3 percent from
fiscal 1994.  Beet sugar is expected to total 4.65 million, up 14 percent or
560,000 tons from last year, accounting for 56.4 percent of total sugar
production.  According to USDA's Sweetener Market Data (SMD), beet sugar
production for the first quarter of the fiscal year (October- December) totaled
2.12 million short tons or 45.5 percent of the year's estimate.  This is below
the pace of production in recent years and reflects the sizeable quantity of
piled sugarbeets yet to be processed in the Upper Midwestern states of
Minnesota and North Dakota.
 
Cane sugar production (including Puerto Rico) for fiscal 1995, is forecast at
3.59 million tons, marginally above last year and up 50,000 tons from the
December forecast as improved estimates for Louisiana and Texas more than
offset downturns for Hawaii and Puerto Rico.  According to SMD, cane sugar
production for the first quarter of fiscal 1995 totaled 1.82 million tons, 51
percent of the estimate for the year.  This compares with 1.90 million tons for
the first quarter of fiscal 1994 (October- December 1993), which accounted for
54 percent of the final outturn.  The slower pace this season is largely
attributed to wet weather in Florida, which has delayed cane processing. 
Florida is expected to produce 1.84 million tons, 51 percent of the national
cane sugar production.
 
U.S. sugar consumption for fiscal 1995 is forecast to reach 9.43 million tons,
raw value, up 1.0 percent or 97,000 tons from the previous year.  The
projection is 50,000 tons below the forecast published in December and reflects
lower-than-expected commercial demand for sugar during the first quarter of
fiscal 1995 (October-December).  SMD places sugar deliveries for the October-
December quarter at 2.29 million tons, marginally below a year earlier. 
First-quarter delivery results represent 24.3 percent of the year's forecast.
USDA anticipates a strengthening in deliveries, especially during the
second-half of the year (April- September), spurred by heightened seasonal
demand and the general expansion forecast for the U.S. economy.
 
U.S. sugar stocks on September 30, 1995, are forecast at 1.49 million tons,
down nearly 100,000 tons from the December estimate and largely reflecting
lower sugar imports.  The stocks-to-use ratio is 15.0 percent versus 16.0 in
December.  The March stock forecast includes approximately 258,000 tons of beet
sugar and 53,000 tons of cane sugar in excess of marketing allotments.  The
stocks-to-use ratio without the "blocked stocks" would be 11.9 percent.
 
The raw sugar price (New York No. 14 contract) averaged 22.05 cents a pound in
fiscal 1994 versus 21.49 the year before.  Prices averaged 21.83 cents for the
first quarter (October- December) of fiscal 1995, and 22.65 for January, 22.69
for February, and 22.47 through March 16.  Wholesale refined beet sugar prices
(f.o.b. plant, Midwest markets) averaged 25.60 cents for fiscal 1994 and 25.29
cents for October-December 1994.  Wholesale prices for January and February
averaged 25.50 cents per pound and have remained at that level through
mid-March.  
 
For fiscal 1995, combined production of corn sweeteners (high fructose corn
syrup [HFCS], glucose syrup, and dextrose) is forecast at 11.63 million tons,
dry basis, up 3.7 percent or about 415,000 tons from the previous year.  HFCS
production is forecast at 7.76 million tons, up 4.0 percent or nearly 300,000
tons from the year before.  HFCS-42 is estimated to account for 3.10 million
tons, up 2.2 percent from 1994.
 
Corn sweetener use in the United States is forecast to total 10.90 million
tons in fiscal 1995, up 3.5 percent from the revised estimate for the
previous year, with HFCS accounting for 70 percent or 7.7 million tons. 
HFCS-55 prices in January and February averaged 18.51 cents a pound, down
from 19.7 cents and 24.5 cents from the previous 2 quarters due to the normal
seasonal slackening of demand.  HFCS-55 prices averaged 22.87 cents a pound
for fiscal 1994, 2.73 cents below wholesale refined beet sugar.
 
This issue of the Sugar and Sweetener Situation and Outlook also contains a
special article entitled "U.S. Sugar Market:  Recent Trends, Current
Situation, and Outlook to the Year 2000."
 
Printed copies of the report should be available in about one week.  For
further information contact Peter Buzzanell (202) 219-0888.  Text of the full
report will also be available electronically.  For details, call (202)
720-9045.