What do the Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) spreadsheets do?

The LCC spreadsheets perform calculations to determine life-cycle cost and payback periods. The LCC spreadsheets operate in Excel 97 or Excel 7 (Windows 95). The Excel add-on Crystal Ball (version 4.0) allows the user to perform uncertainty analysis on key input variables. 

What are the Worksheets in the Workbook?

Each LCC spreadsheet or workbook consists of the following worksheets:

LCC (Sample Calc) contains the input selections and a summary table of energy use, operating costs, LCC and Payback.

 

LCC (Simulations) contains the input selections as in the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet. If Crystal Ball is running, the energy, cost, LCC, and payback data are from the current sample. If Crystal Ball has finished running, the data are from the final sample.

Engineering contains the manufacturer costs submitted by ARI for split systems and single package systems at each efficiency level. Also included are the manufacturer, distributor, and dealer markups, the sales tax, the installation price, and the repair and maintenance costs.

RECS HH Data for each sample household, contains average and marginal electricity prices, annual space-cooling energy consumption (and space-heating energy consumption for heat pumps), the geographic location, the year the household was built, and the equipment’s age index.

COMM Data for each sample building, contains average and marginal electricity prices, and annual space-cooling energy consumption (and space-heating energy consumption for heat pumps).

Energy Price contains projections of future energy prices from various sources.

SEER Dist contains historical shipment-weighted efficiency data by year; this is used for determining the probable SEER of existing space-conditioning equipment based on age.

HSPF Dist contains historical shipment-weighted efficiency data by year; this is used for determining the probable HSPF of existing heat pump based on age. (This worksheet is included only in the LCC spreadsheet for heat pumps (lcc_shp.xls)).

Seasonal Allocation Factors contains seasonal (i.e., summer and non-summer) allocation factors of annual cooling (or heating) energy which indicate the fraction used by season. The seasonal allocation factors are based on the age and the geographic location of the household. The factors 

are used for determining the annual marginal electricity rate. Summer and non-summer allocation factors are multiplied by summer and non-summer marginal rates, respectively, and then summed to arrive at the annual marginal rate.

drate dist contains data from which an average discount rate and a distribution of discount rates are determined.

Lifetime contains the survival function for central air conditioners and heat pumps and the average central air conditioner and heat pump lifetime in years.

Setup this is used as an interface between user inputs and the rest of the worksheets -- do not modify this sheet.

How does the user operate the spreadsheet?

To execute the spreadsheets fully you will need both Microsoft Excel and Crystal Ball software. Both applications are commercially available. Crystal ball is available at http://www.decisioneering.com.

1) Once you have downloaded the LCC file from the Web, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for sheet LCC (Sample Calc) or LCC (Simulations). 

2) Use Excel’s commands at the top View/Zoom to change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor.

3) The user interacts with the spreadsheet by clicking choices or entering data using the graphical interface that comes with the spreadsheet. Choices can be selected from the box labeled List Inputs on either of two worksheets: 

a) LCC (Sample Calc) or,

b) LCC (Simulations).

A change in either input sheet also changes the other. In the box titled List Inputs select choices from the selection boxes for the following: (1) energy price projection, (2) start year, (3) base case design, (4) standard case design, (5) manufacturer cost data, and 

(6) system type (split or single package). A new discount rate or lifetime can also be entered if a value other than the default value or default distribution is wanted, however, this would change the code and we do not recommend saving the spreadsheet after the 

code is changed.

a) energy price projection,

b) start year,

c) base case design, 

d) standard case design, 

e) system type (split or single package) (this choice appears just outside of the List Inputs box),

f) price multipler (either ARI Mean manufacuturer cost multipliers or Reverse Engineering manufacturer cost multipliers),

g) markups (gives the user the option to input their own manufacturer, distributor, dealer, and builder markups and sales tax),

h) price multiplier (gives the user the option to input their own manufacturer cost multiplier), and

A new discount rate or lifetime can also be entered if a value other than the default value or default distribution is wanted, however, this would change the code and we do not recommend saving the spreadsheet after the code is changed.

4) To change assumptions on List Inputs click on the assumption you wish to change, click on the new assumption from the menu. 

5) This spreadsheet gives the user two methods of running the spreadsheet. 
a) If the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet is chosen, then all calculations are performed for single input values, usually an average. The new results are shown on the same sheet as soon as the new values are entered.

b) Alternately, if the LCC (Simulations) sheet is used, the spreadsheet generates results that are distributions. Some of the inputs are also distributions. The results from the LCC distribution are shown as single values and refer only to the results from the

 last Monte Carlo sample and are therefore not meaningful. To run the distribution version of the spreadsheet the Excel add-in software called Crystal Ball must be enabled.

What is the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet used for? 

LCC difference and Payback as provided in the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet are based on single-point values. This page can be used to see the effect of changing a single parameter. 

How does the user run the Crystal Ball simulation? (LCC Simulations sheet)

To produce sensitivity results using Crystal Ball, you need simply select Run from the Run menu (on the menu bar). To make basic changes in the run sequence, including altering the number of trials, select Run Preferences from the Run menu. After each simulation run, the 

user needs to select Reset (also from the Run menu) before Run can be selected again. Once Crystal Ball has completed its run sequence it will produce a series of distributions. Using the menu bars on the distribution results it is possible to obtain further statistical information. The time 

taken to complete a run sequence can be reduced by minimizing the Crystal Ball window in Excel. 

A step by step summary of the procedure, for running a distribution analysis, is outlined below:

1) Find the Crystal Ball toolbar (at top of screen)

2) Click on RUN

3) Select Preference and choose from the following choices:

a) Monte Carlo

b) Latin Hypercube (recommended)

c) Initial seed choices and whether you want it to be constant between runs

d) Select number of Monte Carlo Trials (we suggest 10,000).

4) To run the simulation, follow the following sequence (on the Crystal Ball toolbar)

RUN

RESET

RUN

5) Now wait until the program informs you that the simulation is completed.

What kind of output does Crystal Ball generate?

1) After the simulation has finished, to see the distribution charts generated, click on the Windows tab bar that is labeled Crystal Ball.

 

2) The life-cycle cost savings and payback periods are defined as Forecast cells. The frequency charts display the results of the simulations, or trials, performed by Crystal Ball. Click on any chart to bring it into view. The charts show the low and high endpoints 

of the forecasts. The View selection on the Crystal Ball toolbar can be used to specify whether you want cumulative or frequency plots shown.

3) To calculate the probability of that LCC savings will occur, either type 0 in the box by the right arrow, or move the arrow key with the cursor to 0 on the scale. The value in the Certainty box shows the likelihood that the LCC savings will occur. To calculate the 

certainty of payback period being below a certain number of years, choose that value as the high endpoint.

4) To generate a printout report, select Create Report from the Run menu. The toolbar choice of Forecast Windows allows you to select the charts and statistics you are interested in. For further information on Crystal Ball outputs, please refer to Understanding 

the Forecast Chart in the Crystal Ball manual.
LIFE CYCLE COST OF PACKAGED SYSTEM HEAT PUMPS - SAMPLE CALCULATION (AVG VALUES), January 2001

 Dollar Values in 1998 $ Elec Price (cent/kWh) Annual Cash Flow Cumulative Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow Disc.

LIST INPUTS Age Year Average Marginal Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Factor

ELECTRICITY PRICE (cent/kWh) Average Marginal 1997 7.45 6.98

ENERGY PRICE PROJECTION START YEAR Year of Purchase 2006 6.92 6.49 $3,599 $4,035 $436 $3,599 $4,035 $436 $3,599 $4,035 $436 

Year Equip. Retires 2023 6.73 6.32 1 2006 6.92 6.49 $529 $460 -$69 $4,128 $4,494 $367 $4,100 $4,470 $370 0.95

2 2007 6.92 6.49 $529 $460 -$69 $4,657 $4,954 $298 $4,574 $4,882 $308 0.90

BASE CASE DESIGN PRICE OPTION 3 2008 6.90 6.47 $527 $459 -$69 $5,184 $5,413 $229 $5,022 $5,272 $250 0.85

SEER 10 CHANGE SEER 13 4 2009 6.82 6.39 $522 $454 -$68 $5,706 $5,867 $161 $5,442 $5,637 $195 0.80

5 2010 6.84 6.42 $524 $455 -$68 $6,230 $6,322 $93 $5,841 $5,984 $143 0.76

STANDARD CASE DESIGN Total Installed Price $3,599 $436 12% $4,035 6 2011 6.78 6.36 $520 $452 -$68 $6,749 $6,774 $25 $6,215 $6,310 $95 0.72

Annual Repair & Maint. $76 $1 2% $77 7 2012 6.75 6.33 $518 $451 -$67 $7,267 $7,225 -$42 $6,569 $6,618 $49 0.68

Compressor Cost $283 $82 29% $364 8 2013 6.74 6.33 $517 $450 -$67 $7,784 $7,675 -$109 $6,904 $6,909 $5 0.65

LIFETIME (years) 18.4 9 2014 6.77 6.35 $519 $452 -$67 $8,303 $8,127 -$177 $7,222 $7,186 -$36 0.61

DISCOUNT RATE 5.6% Annual kWh Use (Cool & Heat) 6549 -1,081 -17% 5468 10 2015 6.79 6.37 $520 $452 -$68 $8,823 $8,579 -$244 $7,523 $7,448 -$75 0.58

 Cooling 2769 -639 -23% 2130 11 2016 6.77 6.35 $519 $451 -$67 $9,342 $9,030 -$312 $7,808 $7,696 -$112 0.55

ELECTRICITY PRICE IN 1998 (cent/kWh) Heating 3780 -442 -12% 3339 Payback 12 2017 6.77 6.35 $519 $451 -$67 $9,861 $9,482 -$379 $8,078 $7,931 -$147 0.52

Average 7.45 Annual Operating Cost (years) 13 2018 6.77 6.35 $519 $452 -$67 $10,380 $9,933 -$447 $8,334 $8,153 -$181 0.49

Marginal 6.98 2006 $529 -$69 -13% $460 6.3 14 2019 6.75 6.33 $800 $814 $14 $11,180 $10,748 -$432 $8,708 $8,534 -$174 0.47

15 2020 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $11,697 $11,197 -$499 $8,936 $8,732 -$204 0.44

RECS AVERAGE UEC (kWh) Cumulative Cash Flow $13,458 -$728 -5% $12,730 16 2021 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $12,213 $11,647 -$566 $9,152 $8,920 -$232 0.42

 COOLING 2950 Life-Cycle Cost ($) $9,626 -$293 -3% $9,332 17 2022 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $12,730 $12,096 -$634 $9,357 $9,098 -$258 0.40

 HEATING 3794 18 2023 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $13,246 $12,546 -$701 $9,550 $9,267 -$283 0.38

RECS AVERAGE SEER 9.39 19 2024 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $13,763 $12,995 -$768 $9,734 $9,427 -$307 0.36

RECS AVERAGE HSPF 6.78 20 2025 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $14,280 $13,445 -$835 $9,908 $9,578 -$330 0.34

21 2026 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $14,796 $13,894 -$902 $10,073 $9,721 -$351 0.32

22 2027 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $15,313 $14,344 -$969 $10,228 $9,857 -$371 0.30

AEO 2000 - Reference Case 2006

Baseline (SEER=10)

30% Impr. (SEER=13)

Fuel Price

Comparion

Show Plot

Show Inputs

Price

Multiplier

Mark Up's

Packaged System

Rev Engr

22 2027 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $15,313 $14,344 -$969 $10,228 $9,857 -$371 0.30

23 2028 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $15,829 $14,793 -$1,036 $10,376 $9,985 -$391 0.29

24 2029 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $16,346 $15,243 -$1,103 $10,516 $10,107 -$409 0.27

25 2030 6.73 6.32 $517 $449 -$67 $16,862 $15,692 -$1,170 $10,648 $10,222 -$426 0.26
LIFE CYCLE COST OF PACKAGED SYSTEM HEAT PUMPS - SAMPLE CALCULATION (AVG VALUES), January 2001

 Dollar Values in 1998 $ Elec Price (cent/kWh) Annual Cash Flow Cumulative Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow Disc.

LIST INPUTS Age Year Average Marginal Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Factor

ELECTRICITY PRICE (cent/kWh) Average Marginal 1998 10.49 11.24

ENERGY PRICE PROJECTION START YEAR Year of Purchase 2006 9.75 10.45 $3,599 $4,035 $436 $3,599 $4,035 $436 $3,599 $4,035 $436 

Year Equip. Retires 2023 9.49 10.17 1 2006 9.75 10.45 $831 $730 -$100 $4,430 $4,765 $335 $4,397 $4,736 $339 0.96

2 2007 9.76 10.45 $831 $730 -$101 $5,260 $5,495 $234 $5,162 $5,409 $246 0.92

BASE CASE DESIGN PRICE OPTION 3 2008 9.72 10.41 $828 $728 -$100 $6,089 $6,223 $134 $5,895 $6,053 $158 0.88

SEER 10 CHANGE SEER 13 4 2009 9.61 10.29 $819 $720 -$99 $6,908 $6,943 $35 $6,591 $6,665 $74 0.85

5 2010 9.64 10.33 $822 $723 -$99 $7,730 $7,666 -$64 $7,262 $7,254 -$7 0.82

STANDARD CASE DESIGN Total Installed Price $3,599 $436 12% $4,035 6 2011 9.56 10.23 $815 $717 -$98 $8,545 $8,383 -$162 $7,900 $7,815 -$84 0.78

Annual Repair & Maint. $76 $1 2% $77 7 2012 9.52 10.19 $812 $714 -$98 $9,358 $9,097 -$260 $8,510 $8,352 -$158 0.75

Compressor Cost $283 $82 29% $364 8 2013 9.51 10.18 $811 $714 -$98 $10,169 $9,811 -$358 $9,096 $8,867 -$229 0.72

9 2014 9.54 10.22 $814 $716 -$98 $10,984 $10,527 -$457 $9,660 $9,363 -$297 0.69

Annual kWh Use (Cool & Heat) 7742 -973 -13% 6768 10 2015 9.56 10.24 $816 $717 -$99 $11,800 $11,244 -$555 $10,203 $9,841 -$362 0.67

LIFETIME (years) 18.4 Cooling 602 -139 -23% 463 11 2016 9.54 10.22 $814 $716 -$98 $12,614 $11,960 -$654 $10,723 $10,298 -$425 0.64

DISCOUNT RATE 4.2% % SHIPMENT Heating 7140 -835 -12% 6305 Payback 12 2017 9.54 10.22 $814 $716 -$98 $13,428 $12,676 -$752 $11,222 $10,737 -$485 0.61

 Comm. 10% Annual Operating Cost (years) 13 2018 9.55 10.23 $815 $716 -$98 $14,242 $13,392 -$850 $11,701 $11,158 -$543 0.59

HOUSEHOLD ELEC PRICE IN 1998 Resd. 90% 2006 $831 -$100 -12% $730 4.3 14 2019 9.51 10.19 $1,094 $1,078 -$16 $15,337 $14,470 -$866 $12,320 $11,767 -$553 0.57

(cent/kWh) Average 10.49 15 2020 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $16,147 $15,183 -$964 $12,759 $12,154 -$606 0.54

Marginal 11.24 Cumulative Cash Flow $18,909 -$1,298 -7% $17,612 16 2021 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $16,957 $15,895 -$1,062 $13,181 $12,525 -$656 0.52

Life-Cycle Cost ($) $14,128 -$771 -5% $13,357 17 2022 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $17,768 $16,608 -$1,160 $13,586 $12,881 -$705 0.50

RECS AVERAGE UEC (kWh) 18 2023 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $18,578 $17,321 -$1,258 $13,975 $13,223 -$752 0.48

 COOLING 735 19 2024 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $19,388 $18,033 -$1,355 $14,349 $13,551 -$797 0.46

 HEATING 7735 20 2025 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $20,199 $18,746 -$1,453 $14,707 $13,867 -$841 0.44

RECS AVERAGE SEER 8.2 21 2026 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $21,009 $19,458 -$1,551 $15,051 $14,169 -$882 0.42

RECS AVERAGE HSPF 6.3 22 2027 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $21,819 $20,171 -$1,649 $15,382 $14,460 -$922 0.41

AEO 2000 - Reference Case 2006

Baseline (SEER=10)

20% Impr. (SEER=12)

Fuel Price

Comparion

Show Plot

Show Inputs

Update

Price

Multiplier

Mark Up's

Split System

Rev Engr

RECS AVERAGE HSPF 6.3 22 2027 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $21,819 $20,171 -$1,649 $15,382 $14,460 -$922 0.41

23 2028 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $22,629 $20,883 -$1,746 $15,699 $14,739 -$960 0.39

24 2029 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $23,440 $21,596 -$1,844 $16,003 $15,006 -$997 0.38

25 2030 9.49 10.17 $810 $713 -$98 $24,250 $22,308 -$1,942 $16,296 $15,263 -$1,032 0.36
PACKAGED SYSTEM HEAT PUMPS: COST AND EFFICIENCY DATA

Total Total

% Over Manufacturer's Cost Multiplier Manuf. Equip. Install. Installed Annual Annual Compr. Compr.

Level Description Baseline ARI mean Reverse Engr Cost Price Price Price Repair Maint. SEER HPSF Mfg. Cost Price

SEER Split Packaged Split Packaged (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (Btu/Whr) (Btu/Whr) (1998$) (1998$)

0 Baseline (SEER=10) 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% $593 $1,439 $2,160 $3,599 $39 $36 10 6.8 $124 $283

1 10% Impr. (SEER=11) 10% 110% 114% 105% 108% $640 $1,531 $2,160 $3,691 $39 $36 11 7.1 $153 $335

2 20% Impr. (SEER=12) 20% 124% 128% 113% 113% $670 $1,588 $2,160 $3,748 $40 $36 12 7.4 $153 $335

3 30% Impr. (SEER=13) 30% 144% 160% 130% 138% $818 $1,875 $2,160 $4,035 $40 $36 13 7.7 $169 $364

4 40% Impr. (SEER=14) 40% 164% 175% 179% 174% $1,032 $2,287 $2,160 $4,447 $62 $36 14 8.0 $225 $466

5 50% Impr. (SEER=15) 50% 209% 213% 194% 186% $1,103 $2,425 $2,160 $4,585 $66 $36 15 8.2 $279 $564

6 80% Impr. (SEER=18) 80% 209% 213% 194% 186% $1,103 $2,425 $2,160 $4,585 $66 $36 18 8.8 $279 $564

Split Packaged

Baseline Mfg Cost $572 $593

Installation Price $2,280 $2,160

Marginal Markups Distributior Markup Dealer Markup

New Retrofit Wt.Avg / Baseline Cumulative Cumulative

34% 66% Sampled Markup Markup Probability Markup Probability

Manufacturer Markup 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.027 1% 1.050 1%

Distributor Markup 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.37 1.056 10% 1.150 10%

Dealer Markup Dealer Markup 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.069 20% 1.190 20%

Builder Markup 1.26 1.00 1.09 1.09 1.077 30% 1.219 30%

Sales Tax Distribution for Retrofit 1.084 40% 1.244 40%

Sales Tax 1.00 1.07 1.04 1.04 10% 30% 38% 22% 1.091 50% 1.267 50%

1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.098 60% 1.290 60%

Service Cost $36 1.105 70% 1.314 70%

1.114 80% 1.343 80%

New/Retrofit Group 1 1=New, 2=Retrofit 1.126 90% 1.384 90%

1.155 99% 1.483 99%
RECS HH Data

HOUSEHOLD DATA FROM 1993 RECS

House ID Sampled 1 Age Distribution from Age Index Adjusted RECS97 CDD CDD Adjusted RECS97 HDD HDD 93 Avg 93 Marginal Rate Large Year

Age Avg. Age House ID Weight CoolUEC CoolUEC 65 65-30 HeatUEC HeatUEC 65 65-30 Elec Rate Summer Winter Division State Made

Index Age Dist. (Mbtu/yr) (Mbtu/yr) (cent/kWh) (in 93$/kWh)

HOUSE ID 1 1 1 1 1 17450 2508 2547 1307 1287 1599 664 839 2020 10.7 $0.135 $0.110 9 2 7

HOUSEHOLD INFORMATION 2 3 3 2 15570 10952 7042 1005 1563 11898 16221 4679 3432 7.1 $0.104 $0.050 5 0 7

 Equip Age Index 4 3 7 7 3 43862 14135 10398 1625 2209 5492 7810 3919 2756 5.7 $0.063 $0.038 7 0 7

 Equip. Age 14 4 14 14 4 10872 5426 6210 1789 1563 8389 5583 2284 3432 8.0 $0.087 $0.069 5 0 5

5 20 20 5 20705 10187 7793 2432 3179 2716 2821 998 961 7.7 $0.072 $0.069 5 4 8

 SEER 8.18 96 10 10 6 25482 5747 4545 1236 1563 20960 21094 3454 3432 7.8 $0.124 $0.057 5 0 8

 HSPF 6.28 7 10 10 7 20385 10497 7260 1081 1563 25885 32552 4316 3432 5.4 $0.046 $0.049 5 0 3

 Cooling UEC 735 kWh/yr 8 10 10 8 16564 17474 21619 3933 3179 6885 2042 285 961 8.4 $0.095 $0.092 5 4 12

 Heating UEC 469 kWh/yr 99 10 10 9 18657 1106 1231 1740 1563 2671 1849 2376 3432 8.3 $0.089 $0.062 5 0 5

10 31141 4453 2963 1040 1563 18357 21839 4083 3432 7.9 $0.064 $0.060 5 0 8

 Avg. Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 10.70 cents/kWh 11 19411 17609 19758 3567 3179 6677 2279 328 961 8.7 $0.057 $0.091 5 4 6

 Marg. Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 11.46 cents/kWh 12 29242 12127 15102 2751 2209 17310 9974 1588 2756 8.0 $0.081 $0.064 7 0 7

13 23687 13858 12659 2904 3179 3916 3390 832 961 7.7 $0.070 $0.080 5 4 7

 Avg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 10.49 cents/kWh Conversion from 1997$ to 1998$ 0.98 14 18950 13542 17504 4109 3179 6734 1892 270 961 8.4 $0.064 $0.080 5 4 7

 Marg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 11.24 cents/kWh 15 16482 2676 2651 1275 1287 2546 3495 2773 2020 11.9 $0.131 $0.121 9 2 7

Wt.Avg. Average Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 7.53 16 10872 8736 9630 1723 1563 22729 15941 2407 3432 7.7 $0.089 $0.069 5 0 4

RECS House ID 1008 Wt.Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 6.99 17 12105 8100 5015 1107 1788 13385 17630 4365 3314 5.4 $0.048 $0.051 6 0 7

RECS Weight 17450 Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 7.39 18 11717 16106 4059 654 2595 25104 53717 6950 3248 6.6 $0.066 $0.063 8 0 5

RECS Cooling UEC 2508 Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 6.86 19 13754 3444 7015 660 324 45574 57354 6042 4801 4.2 $0.040 $0.041 9 0 7

RECS Heating UEC 1599 20 28539 8352 8780 1643 1563 20081 14961 2557 3432 7.8 $0.090 $0.069 5 0 4

1997 RECS 21 10544 12483 14427 3674 3179 4877 1974 389 961 8.1 $0.077 $0.074 5 4 9

 HH Average Cooling UEC 2630 kWh/yr 22 72469 19403 21796 3571 3179 9954 3439 332 961 7.6 $0.082 $0.078 5 4 8

 HH Average Heating UEC 3921 kWh/yr 23 17813 3560 2412 1059 1563 11115 14853 4586 3432 7.2 $0.103 $0.053 5 0 7

 HH Avg Cooling SEER 9.32 24 17652 3687 3282 1029 1156 15648 13731 5273 6009 7.5 $0.064 $0.066 4 0 4

 HH Avg Cooling HSPF 6.77 25 5918 8319 5532 1189 1788 12223 14395 3903 3314 5.7 $0.054 $0.056 6 0 7

26 18907 1093 1992 2346 1287 1323 376 574 2020 10.4 $0.104 $0.103 9 2 11

27 22822 4772 5197 3462 3179 1381 493 343 961 11.0 $0.092 $0.081 5 4 7

Page 1
COMMERCIAL BUILDING DATA

98 Marg

Building ID Sampled 1 Cooling Heating 98 Avg Cooling

Building ID Weight UEC UEC ElecRate ElecRate SEER HSPF

(1000Btu) cent/kWh

Building ID 1 1 0.4% 3814 7735 7.89 7.97 10.0 6.8

BUILDING INFORMATION 2 0.8% 2782 3325 7.84 8.45 10.0 6.8

SEER 10.00 3 0.1% 5488 5658 7.95 7.85 10.0 6.8

HSPF 6.80 4 0.3% 4356 6208 7.94 7.97 10.0 6.8

UEC (Cooling) 3814 kWh/yr 5 1.0% 4026 2434 8.01 8.13 10.0 6.8

UEC (Heating) 7735 kWh/yr 6 1.5% 4461 2008 7.90 7.96 10.0 6.8

7 0.5% 3653 3625 8.03 8.04 10.0 6.8

Avg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 7.89 cents/kWh 8 1.0% 3814 7775 7.89 7.97 10.0 6.8

Marg. Cooling Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 7.97 cents/kWh 9 1.8% 2782 3462 7.84 8.45 10.0 6.8

10 0.2% 5488 5658 7.95 7.85 10.0 6.8

11 0.3% 4356 6208 7.94 7.97 10.0 6.8

12 3.0% 4026 2748 8.01 8.13 10.0 6.8

Wt. Avg. SEER 10.0 13 3.7% 4461 2439 7.90 7.96 10.0 6.8

Wt. Avg. HSPF 6.8 14 1.8% 3653 3618 8.03 8.04 10.0 6.8

Wt. Avg. Cooling UEC (kWh/yr) 5,824 15 1.3% 3541 8333 7.90 8.02 10.0 6.8

Wt. Avg. Heating UEC (kWh/yr) 2,654 16 2.0% 2435 3930 7.92 8.28 10.0 6.8

Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price (cent/kWh in 98$) 7.9 17 0.9% 5119 6419 7.95 7.89 10.0 6.8

Wt. Avg. Marginal Cooling Elec Price (cent/kWh in 98$) 8.1 18 1.0% 3982 6862 7.95 8.01 10.0 6.8

19 3.0% 3747 3182 8.01 8.11 10.0 6.8

20 3.8% 4129 2668 7.91 8.00 10.0 6.8

21 2.9% 3336 4304 8.03 8.04 10.0 6.8

22 0.8% 3673 8210 7.97 8.10 10.0 6.8

23 1.1% 2552 3776 7.92 8.56 10.0 6.8

24 0.1% 5196 6145 7.95 7.88 10.0 6.8

25 0.4% 4091 6888 7.95 8.02 10.0 6.8

26 1.5% 3805 3467 8.01 8.12 10.0 6.8

27 2.3% 4058 3094 7.91 7.94 10.0 6.8

28 0.6% 3497 4715 8.03 8.03 10.0 6.8

29 1.6% 8202 4662 7.88 8.06 10.0 6.8

30 2.4% 5470 2012 7.88 8.48 10.0 6.8

31 0.6% 10514 3331 7.92 7.81 10.0 6.8

32 1.4% 8984 2716 7.91 7.95 10.0 6.8

33 4.5% 7499 1178 7.99 8.05 10.0 6.8

34 5.5% 8497 699 7.88 7.91 10.0 6.8

35 2.5% 6458 2088 8.02 8.02 10.0 6.8

36 1.1% 6862 5512 7.89 8.14 10.0 6.8

37 0.8% 4610 2371 7.90 8.60 10.0 6.8

38 0.3% 9116 3870 7.93 7.84 10.0 6.8

39 0.7% 7575 3419 7.92 8.03 10.0 6.8

40 1.2% 6521 1390 8.00 8.08 10.0 6.8

41 3.1% 7437 1125 7.89 7.94 10.0 6.8

42 1.5% 5690 1257 8.02 8.02 10.0 6.8

43 1.3% 8054 4498 7.89 8.23 10.0 6.8

44 2.3% 5379 1827 7.90 8.89 10.0 6.8

45 0.5% 10343 3300 7.92 7.88 10.0 6.8

46 0.5% 8896 2428 7.91 8.05 10.0 6.8

47 2.2% 7395 985 7.99 8.11 10.0 6.8

48 3.5% 8426 526 7.89 7.95 10.0 6.8

49 1.3% 6262 676 8.02 8.04 10.0 6.8

50 0.7% 4294 7488 7.97 8.12 10.0 6.8

51 0.2% 2985 3323 8.09 8.36 10.0 6.8

52 0.1% 6355 5225 7.95 7.86 10.0 6.8

53 0.3% 5163 5445 7.95 8.01 10.0 6.8

54 1.6% 4850 1977 8.02 8.19 10.0 6.8

55 0.9% 5107 1994 7.98 8.02 10.0 6.8

56 0.2% 4665 2461 8.03 8.05 10.0 6.8

57 0.8% 10262 3934 7.84 7.92 10.0 6.8

58 0.4% 7203 1311 7.81 8.15 10.0 6.8

59 0.1% 12571 2943 7.89 7.72 10.0 6.8

60 0.3% 11656 1421 7.88 7.84 10.0 6.8

61 0.8% 9368 724 7.96 7.95 10.0 6.8

62 0.6% 10452 140 7.86 7.83 10.0 6.8

63 0.5% 9140 131 7.92 7.92 10.0 6.8

64 0.2% 3035 9633 7.98 8.13 10.0 6.8

65 0.1% 2067 4360 8.10 8.41 10.0 6.8

66 0.1% 5379 6476 7.96 7.86 10.0 6.8

67 0.1% 3545 7060 7.96 8.09 10.0 6.8

68 0.8% 3934 2543 8.02 8.11 10.0 6.8

69 0.6% 4586 2516 7.99 8.11 10.0 6.8

70 0.1% 4297 3782 8.03 8.04 10.0 6.8

71 1.9% 6192 5368 7.97 8.21 10.0 6.8

72 1.5% 4233 2154 8.09 8.49 10.0 6.8

73 0.4% 10083 3184 7.93 7.80 10.0 6.8

74 0.7% 7384 2125 7.92 7.95 10.0 6.8

75 3.4% 6973 872 7.99 8.02 10.0 6.8

76 3.2% 8426 381 7.89 7.89 10.0 6.8

77 2.2% 5010 75 8.03 8.05 10.0 6.8
ELECTRICITY PRICE PROJECTIONS

LIST OF PROJECTIONS : -

1 Constant 1999

2 AEO 2000 - Reference Case

3 GRI 1998

4 AEO 2000 - High Growth Case

5 AEO 2000 - Low Growth

Electricity Price Projections Electricity Price Trends

Const. AEO2000 GRI 98 High Low Const. AEO2000 GRI 98 High Low

cents / kWh (in 1998 dollar)

1995 8.82 8.82 8.82 8.82 8.82

1996 8.63 8.63 8.63 8.63 8.63

1997 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.38 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

1998 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96

1999 7.92 7.92 7.92 7.92 7.92 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95

2000 7.92 7.86 8.50 7.98 7.85 0.95 0.94 1.01 0.95 0.94

2001 7.92 7.74 8.38 7.83 7.71 0.95 0.92 1.00 0.93 0.92

2002 7.92 7.63 8.27 7.77 7.56 0.95 0.91 0.99 0.93 0.90

2003 7.92 7.59 8.15 7.77 7.52 0.95 0.91 0.97 0.93 0.90

2004 7.92 7.56 8.03 7.78 7.46 0.95 0.90 0.96 0.93 0.89

2005 7.92 7.47 7.92 7.72 7.37 0.95 0.89 0.94 0.92 0.88

2006 7.92 7.48 7.82 7.76 7.32 0.95 0.89 0.93 0.93 0.87

2007 7.92 7.48 7.73 7.76 7.29 0.95 0.89 0.92 0.93 0.87

2008 7.92 7.46 7.64 7.71 7.22 0.95 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.86

2009 7.92 7.37 7.54 7.66 7.15 0.95 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.85

2010 7.92 7.39 7.45 7.71 7.13 0.95 0.88 0.89 0.92 0.85

2011 7.92 7.33 7.39 7.63 7.07 0.95 0.87 0.88 0.91 0.84

2012 7.92 7.30 7.32 7.62 7.03 0.95 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.84

2013 7.92 7.29 7.26 7.60 7.00 0.95 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.84

2014 7.92 7.32 7.20 7.61 7.01 0.95 0.87 0.86 0.91 0.84

2015 7.92 7.33 7.14 7.63 7.02 0.95 0.88 0.85 0.91 0.84

2016 7.92 7.32 7.14 7.62 7.01 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.84

2017 7.92 7.32 7.14 7.60 7.00 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.84

2018 7.92 7.32 7.14 7.63 7.02 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.84

2019 7.92 7.29 7.14 7.59 7.01 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.84

2020 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.83

2021 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.83

2022 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.83

2023 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.83

2024 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.83

2025 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.83

2026 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.83

2027 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.83

2028 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.83

2029 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.83

2030 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.83

2021-2030 Electricity price are kept constant after 2020 for AEO 2000 Reference, High Growth and Low Growth Cases
2016-2030 Electricity price are kept constant after 2015 for GRI 1998
Heat Pumps (Cooling)

Percentage Distribution by Efficiency (SEER) for Heat Pumps in 1993

AGE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

9.7 0.7% 9.7 0.7% 9.7 0.7% 9.7 0.7% 9.7 1.7% 9.7 9.1% 7.3 0.0% 7.3 1.3% 7.3 0.3% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0%

10.2 59.4% 10.2 59.4% 10.2 59.4% 10.2 59.4% 10.2 61.1% 10.2 66.5% 7.7 0.0% 7.7 0.0% 7.7 0.6% 5.7 0.0% 5.7 0.0% 5.7 0.0% 5.7 0.0% 5.7 0.0% 5.7 0.1% 5.7 0.1% 5.7 0.1% 6 0.7% 6 1.4% 6 6.0% 6 20.9% 6 22.9% 6 22.9% 6 22.9% 6 22.9%

10.7 3.2% 10.7 3.2% 10.7 3.2% 10.7 3.2% 10.7 4.4% 10.7 2.7% 8.2 10.4% 8.2 11.9% 8.2 14.4% 6.2 0.0% 6.2 0.0% 6.2 0.0% 6.2 0.0% 6.2 0.1% 6.2 0.1% 6.2 0.4% 6.2 0.4% 7 44.8% 7 59.0% 7 58.9% 7 64.4% 7 66.5% 7 66.5% 7 66.5% 7 66.5%

11.2 11.6% 11.2 11.6% 11.2 11.6% 11.2 11.6% 11.2 12.8% 11.2 8.5% 8.7 5.6% 8.7 8.6% 8.7 10.3% 6.7 0.0% 6.7 0.0% 6.7 0.0% 6.7 0.3% 6.7 1.2% 6.7 5.7% 6.7 8.5% 6.7 9.9% 8 52.2% 8 39.0% 8 34.8% 8 14.4% 8 6.1% 8 6.1% 8 6.1% 8 6.1%

11.7 2.0% 11.7 2.0% 11.7 2.0% 11.7 2.0% 11.7 1.7% 11.7 4.6% 9.2 26.9% 9.2 37.2% 9.2 54.0% 7.2 0.6% 7.2 2.0% 7.2 2.0% 7.2 2.5% 7.2 3.5% 7.2 8.1% 7.2 8.2% 7.2 17.6% 9 2.3% 9 0.6% 9 0.4% 9 0.4% 9 4.5% 9 4.5% 9 4.5% 9 4.5%

12.2 18.0% 12.2 18.0% 12.2 18.0% 12.2 18.0% 12.2 11.4% 12.2 4.7% 9.7 19.1% 9.7 21.1% 9.7 8.0% 7.7 2.1% 7.7 5.0% 7.7 5.0% 7.7 7.1% 7.7 11.4% 7.7 19.4% 7.7 27.9% 7.7 37.5% 10 0.0% 10 0.0% 10 0.0% 10 0.0% 10 0.0% 10 0.0% 10 0.0% 10 0.0%

12.7 0.2% 12.7 0.2% 12.7 0.2% 12.7 0.2% 12.7 1.0% 12.7 1.5% 10.2 24.2% 10.2 12.1% 10.2 6.6% 8.2 13.3% 8.2 20.2% 8.2 20.2% 8.2 56.0% 8.2 56.3% 8.2 46.9% 8.2 45.8% 8.2 31.8% 11 0.0% 11 0.0% 11 0.0% 11 0.0% 11 0.0% 11 0.0% 11 0.0% 11 0.0%

13.2 3.6% 13.2 3.6% 13.2 3.6% 13.2 3.6% 13.2 4.5% 13.2 2.0% 10.7 2.6% 10.7 2.8% 10.7 2.9% 8.7 23.7% 8.7 27.8% 8.7 27.8% 8.7 9.7% 8.7 7.4% 8.7 4.9% 8.7 2.7% 8.7 1.7% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0%

13.7 0.2% 13.7 0.2% 13.7 0.2% 13.7 0.2% 13.7 0.3% 13.7 0.3% 11.2 4.0% 11.2 1.7% 11.2 1.3% 9.2 42.6% 9.2 32.3% 9.2 32.3% 9.2 16.1% 9.2 12.2% 9.2 8.0% 9.2 5.3% 9.2 0.9%

14.2 0.6% 14.2 0.6% 14.2 0.6% 14.2 0.6% 14.2 0.5% 14.2 0.1% 11.7 1.5% 11.7 1.3% 11.7 1.3% 9.7 10.3% 9.7 6.5% 9.7 6.5% 9.7 2.9% 9.7 3.1% 9.7 1.3% 9.7 0.5% 9.7 0.1%

14.7 0.2% 14.7 0.2% 14.7 0.2% 14.7 0.2% 14.7 0.2% 14.7 0.1% 12.2 5.8% 12.2 2.1% 12.2 0.3% 10.2 3.7% 10.2 1.3% 10.2 1.3% 10.2 2.1% 10.2 1.9% 10.2 2.1% 10.2 0.2% 10.2 0.1%

15.2 0.3% 15.2 0.3% 15.2 0.3% 15.2 0.3% 15.2 0.3% 15.2 0.1% 10.7 2.0% 10.7 1.8% 10.7 1.8% 10.7 3.0% 10.7 2.8% 10.7 3.4% 10.7 0.2% 10.7 0.0%

11.2 1.5% 11.2 1.9% 11.2 1.9% 11.2 0.0% 11.2 0.0% 11.2 0.1% 11.2 0.1% 11.2 0.1%

11.7 0.1% 11.7 1.2% 11.7 1.2% 11.7 0.1% 11.7 0.0% 11.7 0.0% 11.7 0.0% 11.7 0.0%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

SWEF 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.81 10.53 9.74 9.41 9.21 9.06 8.88 8.88 8.51 8.40 8.18 7.92 7.70 7.56 7.39 7.29 6.94 6.92 6.92 6.92 6.92

% Incr. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 2.6% 8.2% 3.4% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 0.0% 4.4% 1.3% 2.7% 3.3% 2.9% 1.8% 2.3% 1.3% 5.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

CB Dist. 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.89 10.81 10.53 9.74 9.41 9.21 9.06 8.88 8.88 8.51 8.40 8.18 7.92 7.70 7.56 7.39 7.29 6.94 6.92 6.92 6.92 6.92
Heat Pumps (Heating)

Percentage Distribution by Efficiency (HSPF) for Heat Pumps in 1993

AGE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

6.01 0.7% 6.01 0.7% 6.01 0.7% 6.01 0.7% 6.01 0.7% 5.92 0.7% 5.84 0.7% 5.75 0.7% 4.75 0.0% 4.75 0.0% 4.75 0.0% 4.68 0.0% 4.61 0.0% 4.54 0.0% 4.48 0.0% 4.41 0.0% 4.34 0.0% 4.28 0.0% 4.22 0.0% 4.15 0.0% 4.09 0.0% 4.03 0.0% 4.03 0.0% 4.03 0.0% 4.03 0.0%

6.54 9.8% 6.54 9.8% 6.54 9.8% 6.54 9.8% 6.54 9.8% 6.44 9.8% 6.34 9.8% 6.25 9.8% 5.25 0.0% 5.25 0.2% 5.25 0.0% 5.17 0.0% 5.10 0.0% 5.02 0.0% 4.95 0.0% 4.87 0.0% 4.80 0.0% 4.73 0.0% 4.66 0.0% 4.59 0.0% 4.52 0.0% 4.46 0.0% 4.46 0.0% 4.46 0.0% 4.46 0.0%

7.06 50.1% 7.06 50.1% 7.06 50.1% 7.06 50.1% 7.06 50.1% 6.95 50.1% 6.85 50.1% 6.75 50.1% 5.75 0.8% 5.75 3.8% 5.75 6.4% 5.67 6.4% 5.58 6.4% 5.50 6.4% 5.42 6.4% 5.34 6.4% 5.26 6.4% 5.18 6.4% 5.10 6.4% 5.03 6.4% 4.95 6.4% 4.88 6.4% 4.88 6.4% 4.88 6.4% 4.88 6.4%

7.58 28.4% 7.58 28.4% 7.58 28.4% 7.58 28.4% 7.58 28.4% 7.47 28.4% 7.36 28.4% 7.25 28.4% 6.25 20.3% 6.25 21.8% 6.25 33.0% 6.16 33.0% 6.07 33.0% 5.98 33.0% 5.89 33.0% 5.80 33.0% 5.72 33.0% 5.63 33.0% 5.55 33.0% 5.47 33.0% 5.39 33.0% 5.31 33.0% 5.31 33.0% 5.31 33.0% 5.31 33.0%

8.10 6.0% 8.10 6.0% 8.10 6.0% 8.10 6.0% 8.10 6.0% 7.98 6.0% 7.87 6.0% 7.75 6.0% 6.75 47.2% 6.75 45.6% 6.75 38.1% 6.65 38.1% 6.55 38.1% 6.46 38.1% 6.36 38.1% 6.27 38.1% 6.17 38.1% 6.08 38.1% 5.99 38.1% 5.90 38.1% 5.82 38.1% 5.73 38.1% 5.73 38.1% 5.73 38.1% 5.73 38.1%

8.63 2.8% 8.63 2.8% 8.63 2.8% 8.63 2.8% 8.63 2.8% 8.50 2.8% 8.37 2.8% 8.25 2.8% 7.25 23.3% 7.25 22.1% 7.25 20.2% 7.14 20.2% 7.04 20.2% 6.93 20.2% 6.83 20.2% 6.73 20.2% 6.63 20.2% 6.53 20.2% 6.44 20.2% 6.34 20.2% 6.25 20.2% 6.15 20.2% 6.15 20.2% 6.15 20.2% 6.15 20.2%

9.15 1.9% 9.15 1.9% 9.15 1.9% 9.15 1.9% 9.15 1.9% 9.01 1.9% 8.88 1.9% 8.75 1.9% 7.75 4.9% 7.75 1.3% 7.75 0.1% 7.64 0.1% 7.52 0.1% 7.41 0.1% 7.30 0.1% 7.19 0.1% 7.09 0.1% 6.98 0.1% 6.88 0.1% 6.78 0.1% 6.68 0.1% 6.58 0.1% 6.58 0.1% 6.58 0.1% 6.58 0.1%

9.67 0.1% 9.67 0.1% 9.67 0.1% 9.67 0.1% 9.67 0.1% 9.53 0.1% 9.39 0.1% 9.25 0.1% 8.25 2.3% 8.25 3.5% 8.25 0.7% 8.13 0.7% 8.01 0.7% 7.89 0.7% 7.77 0.7% 7.66 0.7% 7.54 0.7% 7.43 0.7% 7.32 0.7% 7.22 0.7% 7.11 0.7% 7.00 0.7% 7.00 0.7% 7.00 0.7% 7.00 0.7%

10.20 0.0% 10.20 0.0% 10.20 0.0% 10.20 0.0% 10.20 0.0% 10.04 0.0% 9.90 0.0% 9.75 0.0% 8.75 1.2% 8.75 1.6% 8.75 1.5% 8.62 1.5% 8.49 1.5% 8.37 1.5% 8.24 1.5% 8.12 1.5% 8.00 1.5% 7.88 1.5% 7.77 1.5% 7.65 1.5% 7.54 1.5% 7.43 1.5% 7.43 1.5% 7.43 1.5% 7.43 1.5%

10.72 0.0% 10.72 0.0% 10.72 0.0% 10.72 0.0% 10.72 0.0% 10.56 0.0% 10.40 0.0% 10.25 0.0% 9.25 0.0% 9.25 0.1% 9.25 0.0% 9.11 0.0% 8.98 0.0% 8.85 0.0% 8.72 0.0% 8.59 0.0% 8.46 0.0% 8.33 0.0% 8.21 0.0% 8.09 0.0% 7.97 0.0% 7.85 0.0% 7.85 0.0% 7.85 0.0% 7.85 0.0%

11.24 0.0% 11.24 0.0% 11.24 0.0% 11.24 0.0% 11.24 0.0% 11.07 0.0% 10.91 0.0% 10.75 0.0% 9.75 0.0% 9.75 0.0% 9.75 0.0% 9.61 0.0% 9.46 0.0% 9.32 0.0% 9.19 0.0% 9.05 0.0% 8.92 0.0% 8.79 0.0% 8.66 0.0% 8.53 0.0% 8.40 0.0% 8.28 0.0% 8.28 0.0% 8.28 0.0% 8.28 0.0%

11.76 0.0% 11.76 0.0% 11.76 0.0% 11.76 0.0% 11.76 0.0% 11.59 0.0% 11.42 0.0% 11.25 0.0% 10.25 0.0% 10.25 0.0% 10.25 0.0% 10.10 0.0% 9.95 0.0% 9.80 0.0% 9.66 0.0% 9.51 0.0% 9.37 0.0% 9.24 0.0% 9.10 0.0% 8.96 0.0% 8.83 0.0% 8.70 0.0% 8.70 0.0% 8.70 0.0% 8.70 0.0%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

SWEF 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.19 7.08 6.98 6.87 6.81 6.66 6.56 6.47 6.37 6.28 6.18 6.09 6.00 5.91 5.83 5.74 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66

% Incr. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 0.8% 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

CB Dist. 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.30 7.19 7.08 6.98 6.87 6.81 6.66 6.56 6.47 6.37 6.28 6.18 6.09 6.00 5.91 5.83 5.74 5.66 5.66 5.66 5.66
Allocation Alloc

Group YEARMADE WINTER SUMMER WINTER SUMMER WINTER SUMMER Station Group

1 1,2 7% 93% 97% 3% 88% 12% 1 14

3 thru 6 7% 93% 98% 2% 89% 11% 2 9

7,8 6% 94% 98% 2% 89% 11% 3 5

9 thru 16 6% 94% 98% 2% 87% 13% 4 6

2 1,2 8% 92% 99% 1% 85% 15% 5 17

3 thru 6 8% 92% 99% 1% 86% 14% 6 1

Seasonal Allocation Factors

Cooling Only Heating Only Heating & Cooling

3 thru 6 8% 92% 99% 1% 86% 14% 6 1

7,8 5% 95% 99% 1% 83% 17% 7 11

9 thru 16 4% 96% 99% 1% 84% 16% 8 2

3 1,2 9% 91% 98% 2% 86% 14% 9 1

3 thru 6 9% 91% 99% 1% 89% 11% 10 9

7,8 9% 91% 99% 1% 87% 13% 11 13

9 thru 16 10% 90% 99% 1% 84% 16% 12 3

4 1,2 15% 85% 98% 2% 73% 27% 13 3

3 thru 6 14% 86% 99% 1% 74% 26% 14 13

7,8 12% 88% 99% 1% 72% 28% 15 11

9 thru 16 12% 88% 99% 1% 67% 33% 16 11

5 1,2 16% 84% 99% 1% 78% 22% 17 15

3 thru 6 16% 84% 99% 1% 79% 21% 18 13

7,8 12% 88% 99% 1% 73% 27% 19 19

9 thru 16 11% 89% 99% 1% 75% 25% 20 10

6 1,2 46% 54% 100% 0% 50% 50% 21 16

3 thru 6 44% 56% 100% 0% 47% 53% 22 7

7,8 44% 56% 100% 100% 0% 45% 55% 23 12

9 thru 16 44% 56% 100% 0% 45% 55% 24 15

7 1,2 21% 79% 99% 1% 72% 28% 25 19

3 thru 6 17% 83% 100% 0% 74% 26% 26 16

7,8 17% 83% 100% 0% 62% 38% 27 11

9 thru 16 16% 84% 100% 0% 62% 38% 28 10

8 1,2 18% 82% 100% 0% 56% 44% 29 6

3 thru 6 15% 85% 100% 0% 54% 46% 30 4

7,8 14% 86% 100% 0% 50% 50% 31 2

9 thru 16 9 thru 16 13% 87% 100% 100% 0% 52% 48% 32 11

9 1,2 32% 68% 99% 1% 55% 45% 33 7

3 thru 6 29% 71% 99% 1% 52% 48% 34 2

7,8 26% 74% 99% 1% 47% 53% 35 15

9 thru 16 25% 75% 99% 1% 48% 52% 36 8

10 1,2 29% 71% 100% 0% 45% 55% 37 1

3 thru 6 23% 77% 100% 0% 36% 64% 38 16

7,8 20% 80% 100% 0% 32% 68% 39 13

9 thru 16 20% 80% 100% 0% 32% 68% 40 13

11 1,2 2% 98% 90% 10% 87% 13% 41 11

3 thru 6 2% 98% 91% 9% 89% 11% 42 19

7,8 2% 98% 93% 7% 88% 12% 43 18

9 thru 16 1% 99% 93% 7% 89% 11% 44 16

12 1,2 29% 71% 93% 7% 80% 20% 45 8

3 thru 6 34% 66% 93% 7% 84% 16% 46 8

7,8 42% 58% 92% 8% 81% 19% 

9 thru 16 44% 56% 92% 8% 82% 18% 
NOMINAL First Mortgage Rate Data NOMINAL Second Mortgage Rate Data REAL Gains and Losses for Various Assets

NEW ESTIMATE (1998 Survey of Consumer Finances) Mortgage Weight 2nd Mort Weight S&P 500 Nasdaq Corp AAA CD - 6 mo. Treasury S&P 500 Nasdaq Corp AAA CD - 6 mo. Treasury

Nominal interest rate Rate Percent Mortgage Bin Rate Percent 2nd Mort Bin Year Mut Fund Stocks Bonds CDs Sav Bonds Mut Fund Stocks Bonds CDs Sav Bonds

Finance Method Min Max Mean 0.0% 0.3% 0.0 0 to 1 0.0% 1.8% 0.0 0 to 1 1999 13% 60% 5% 3% 3% 13% 1 60% 1 5% 1 3% 1 3% 1

NOMINAL New home 0.0% 20.0% 7.9% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 1 to 2 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 1 to 2 1998 24% 34% 5% 4% 3% 24% 1 34% 1 5% 1 4% 1 3% 1

NOMINAL 2nd mortgage 0.0% 22.0% 10.3% 2.6% 0.1% 2.6 2 to 3 2.5% 1.7% 2.5 2 to 3 1997 21% 12% 5% 3% 3% 21% 1 12% 1 5% 1 3% 1 3% 1

NOMINAL Credit card 0.0% 39.0% 13.5% 3.0% 0.2% 3.0 3 to 4 3.6% 0.7% 3.6 3 to 4 1996 14% 19% 4% 3% 2% 14% 1 19% 1 4% 1 3% 1 2% 1

4.4% 0.3% 4.4 4 to 5 4.0% 0.0% 4.0 4 to 5 1995 28% 36% 5% 3% 3% 28% 1 36% 1 5% 1 3% 1 3% 1

28% TAX 5.5% 0.9% 5.5 5 to 6 5.0% 0.0% 5.0 5 to 6 1994 -7% -9% 5% 2% 2% -7% 1 -9% 1 5% 1 2% 1 2% 1

1.56% 1998 INFLATION 6.6% 13.9% 6.6 6 to 7 6.5% 3.7% 6.5 6 to 7 1993 3% 9% 4% 0% 0% 3% 1 9% 1 4% 1 0% 1 0% 1

7.4% 41.3% 7.4 7 to 8 7.5% 8.3% 7.5 7 to 8 1992 4% 6% 5% 1% 1% 4% 1 6% 1 5% 1 1% 1 1% 1

COMPOSITE -- NEW CONSTRUCTION AND REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT 8.3% 25.0% 8.3 8 to 9 8.3% 15.8% 8.3 8 to 9 1991 17% 37% 5% 2% 1% 17% 1 37% 1 5% 1 2% 1 1% 1

Real interest rate 9.3% 8.6% 9.3 9 to 10 9.2% 16.3% 9.2 9 to 10 1990 -5% -16% 4% 3% 2% -5% 1 -16% 1 4% 1 3% 1 2% 1

Finance Method Share Min Max Mean 10.1% 5.0% 10.1 10 to 11 10.2% 15.8% 10.2 10 to 11 1989 14% 9% 4% 4% 3% 14% 1 9% 1 4% 1 4% 1 3% 1

REAL New home (after tax) 34% -1.6% 12.8% 4.2% 11.1% 1.3% 11.1 11 to 12 11.3% 3.1% 11.3 11 to 12 1988 4% 7% 6% 4% 3% 4% 1 7% 1 6% 1 4% 1 3% 1

REAL 2nd mortgage (after tax) 2% -1.6% 14.3% 5.9% 12.1% 1.7% 12.1 12 to 13 12.3% 13.3% 12.3 12 to 13 1987 -14% -19% 6% 3% 3% -14% 1 -19% 1 6% 1 3% 1 3% 1

REAL Credit card 21% -1.6% 37.4% 12.0% 13.5% 0.5% 13.5 13 to 14 13.3% 5.2% 13.3 13 to 14 1986 12% 2% 7% 5% 4% 12% 1 2% 1 7% 1 5% 1 4% 1

REAL Transaction accounts 24% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 14.1% 0.3% 14.1 14 to 15 14.1% 7.7% 14.1 14 to 15 1985 14% 13% 8% 5% 4% 14% 1 13% 1 8% 1 5% 1 4% 1

REAL CD (6 month) 4% -2.2% 6.4% 2.4% 15.0% 0.0% 15.0 15 to 16 15.0% 1.9% 15.0 15 to 16 1984 -2% 8% 6% 6% -2% 1 8% 1 6% 1 6% 1

REAL Savings Bonds (Treasury) 5% -3.3% 5.6% 1.8% 16.0% 0.3% 16.0 16 to 17 16.0% 0.0% 16.0 16 to 17 1983 10% 9% 6% 6% 10% 1 9% 1 6% 1 6% 1

REAL Bonds (Corporate AAA) 1% -1.7% 8.8% 4.5% 17.0% 0.0% 17.0 17 to 18 17.0% 0.0% 17.0 17 to 18 1982 11% 8% 6% 5% 11% 1 8% 1 6% 1 5% 1

REAL Stocks (Nasdaq) 5% -19.4% 60.2% 13.3% 18.0% 0.1% 18.0 18 to 19 18.0% 2.0% 18.0 18 to 19 1981 -16% 4% 5% 3% -16% 1 4% 1 5% 1 3% 1

REAL Mutual Funds (S&P 500) 4% -40.0% 37.2% 4.5% 19.0% 0.0% 19.0 19 to 20 19.0% 1.0% 19.0 19 to 20 1980 5% -2% -1% -3% 5% 1 -2% 1 -1% 1 -3% 1

Total Share 100% Wtd Average 5.60% 20.0% 0.1% 20.0 20 to 21 20.0% 0.0% 20.0 20 to 21 1979 -3% -2% 0% -2% -3% 1 -2% 1 0% 1 -2% 1

21.0% 0.0% 21.0 21 to 22 1978 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 1% 1 1% 1 0% 1

7.94% 22.0% 1.6% 22.0 22 to 23 1977 -13% 2% -1% -1% -13% 1 2% 1 -1% 1 -1% 1

NEW CONSTRUCTION ONLY 1976 1% 3% 0% 0% 1% 1 3% 1 0% 1 0% 1

Real interest rate 10.30% 1975 8% -2% -3% 8% 1 -2% 1 -3% 1

Finance Method Share Min Max Mean 1974 -40% -1% -3% -40% 1 -1% 1 -3% 1

REAL New home (after tax) 100% -1.6% 12.8% 4.2% 1973 -22% 3% 1% -22% 1 3% 1 1% 1

1972 10% 2% 2% 10% 1 2% 1 2% 1

1971 2% 1% 0% 2% 1 1% 1 0% 1

REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT ONLY NOMINAL Credit Card Interest Rate Data 1970 3% 2% 1% 3% 1 2% 1 1% 1

Real interest rate CC Weight 1969 -16% 2% 1% -16% 1 2% 1 1% 1

Finance Method Share Min Max Mean Rate Percent CC Bin 1968 8% 2% 1% 8% 1 2% 1 1% 1

REAL 2nd mortgage (after tax) 3% -1.6% 14.3% 5.9% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0 0 to 1 1967 8% 2% 2% 8% 1 2% 1 2% 1

REAL Credit card 32% -1.6% 37.4% 12.0% 1.0% 0.2% 1.0 1 to 2 1966 -16% 3% 2% -16% 1 3% 1 2% 1

REAL Transaction accounts 36% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 2 to 3 1965 4% 3% 2% 4% 1 3% 1 2% 1

REAL CD (6 month) 6% -2.2% 6.4% 2.4% 3.8% 1.2% 3.8 3 to 4 1964 9% 3% 2% 9% 1 3% 1 2% 1

REAL Savings Bonds (Treasury) 8% -3.3% 5.6% 1.8% 4.9% 3.2% 4.9 4 to 5 1963 12% 2% 12% 1 2% 1

REAL Bonds (Corporate AAA) 1% -1.7% 8.8% 4.5% 5.8% 4.4% 5.8 5 to 6 1962 -9% 2% -9% 1 2% 1

REAL Stocks (Nasdaq) 8% -19.4% 60.2% 13.3% 6.4% 2.2% 6.4 6 to 7 1961 15% 2% 15% 1 2% 1

REAL Mutual Funds (S&P 500) 7% -40.0% 37.2% 4.5% 7.6% 1.5% 7.6 7 to 8 1960 3% 2% 3% 1 2% 1

Total Share 100% Wtd Average 6.33% 8.4% 1.9% 8.4 8 to 9 1959 7% 4% 7% 1 4% 1

9.5% 5.5% 9.5 9 to 10 1958 30% 30% 1

1 3% 10.3% 1.9% 10.3 10 to 11 1957 -14% -14% 1

2 32% 11.4% 3.3% 11.4 11 to 12 1956 5% 5% 1

3 36% 12.4% 8.4% 12.4 12 to 13 1955 25% 25% 1

4 6% 13.3% 5.0% 13.3 13 to 14 1954 37% 37% 1

5 8% 14.3% 6.1% 14.3 14 to 15 1953 -7% -7% 1

6 1% 15.3% 6.1% 15.3 15 to 16 1952 8% 8% 1

7 8% 16.3% 4.3% 16.3 16 to 17 1951 2% 2% 1

8 7% 17.3% 5.1% 17.3 17 to 18 1950 18% 18% 1

18.1% 13.8% 18.1 18 to 19 Average 4% 13% 5% 2% 2%

Finanace Method Retro 4 19.3% 8.9% 19.3 19 to 20 Minimum -40% -19% -2% -2% -3%

Real Interest Rate Retro 2.4% 20.1% 1.9% 20.1 20 to 21 Maximum 37% 60% 9% 6% 6%

21.1% 5.8% 21.1 21 to 22

22.2% 1.6% 22.2 22 to 23

23.1% 0.5% 23.1 23 to 24

24.3% 0.4% 24.3 24 to 25

25.0% 0.0% 25.0 25 to 26

26.0% 0.0% 26.0 26 to 27

27.0% 0.0% 27.0 27 to 28

28.0% 0.0% 28.0 28 to 29

29.0% 0.0% 29.0 29 to 30

30.0% 0.0% 30.0 30 to 31

31.0% 0.0% 31.0 31 to 32

32.0% 0.0% 32.0 32 to 33

33.0% 0.0% 33.0 33 to 34

34.0% 0.0% 34.0 34 to 35

35.0% 0.0% 35.0 35 to 36

36.0% 0.0% 36.0 36 to 37

37.0% 0.0% 37.0 37 to 38

38.0% 0.0% 38.0 38 to 39

39.0% 0.1% 39.0 39 to 40

13.51%
Lifetime

SURVIVAL FUNCTION OF HEAT PUMPS

Lifetime Distribution 18.4 years Average Life 18.4 years

Fraction Fraction

Age Retired Surv

0 0.000 1.000

1 0.002 0.998

2 0.002 0.996

3 0.002 0.994

4 0.002 0.992

5 0.002 0.990

6 0.002 0.988

7 0.001 0.987

8 0.012 0.976

9 0.019 0.956

10 0.026 0.930

11 0.033 0.897

12 0.039 0.858

13 0.043 0.815

14 0.046 0.769

15 0.049 0.720

16 0.051 0.669

17 0.053 0.616 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25

%

S

urvivin

g

Survival Function of Heat Pumps

Page 1

17 0.053 0.616

18 0.056 0.560

19 0.060 0.500

20 0.067 0.433

21 0.078 0.355

22 0.093 0.262

23 0.116 0.146

24 0.146 0.000

Wt.Avg 18.4

Source: M.E. Bucher, C.M. Grastataro, W.R. Coleman. 1990. "Heat Pump Life and Compressor Longevity in Diverse Climates." ASHRAE Transactions. AT-90-29-3.

0%

10%

0 5 10 15 20 25

Age (year)

Page 1
Setup

PLEASE DO NOT CHANGE ANYTHING HERE

User Choices

FPindex 2 AEO 2000 - Reference Case AEO 2000 - Reference Case

StartYear 2006 Projection Trend

BaseOpt 1 Baseline (SEER=10) Elec Elec Elec

StdOpt 4 30% Impr. (SEER=13) cent/kWh cent/kWh cent/kWh

PriceOpt 1 0=ARI mean, 1=Rev.Engr. 1998 8.05 1.00 1998 8.05

System Opt 1 Packaged System 1999 7.92 0.98 2000 7.86

CB 0 2000 7.86 0.98 2010 7.39

2001 7.74 0.96 2020 7.28

Multi-Run Options 2002 7.63 0.95 2030 7.28

StdOptBegin 3 2003 7.59 0.94 2000-2030

StdOptEnd 5 2004 7.56 0.94 Growth -0.3%

2005 7.47 0.93

Comm./Resid. Choice 2 <-This cell is dynamically defined when 2006 7.48 0.93

user updates the % comm. and % resid. 2007 7.48 0.93

% Shipment Breakdown (Don’t change assumptions here) 2008 7.46 0.93

 Commercial 1 10.0% 2009 7.37 0.92

 Residential 2 90.0% 2010 7.39 0.92

Base Manuf. Cost $593 2011 7.33 0.91

Base Equipment Price $1,439 2012 7.30 0.91

Base Opt Manuf. Cost $593 2013 7.29 0.91

Base Opt Equipment Price $1,439 2014 7.32 0.91

Std Opt Manuf. Cost $818 2015 7.33 0.91

Std Opt Equipment Price $1,875 2016 7.32 0.91

System Installation Price $2,160 2017 7.32 0.91

2018 7.32 0.91

value user use 2019 7.29 0.91

used value default 2020 7.28 0.90

Manufacturer Markup 123% 0% 1 2021 7.28 0.90

Distributor Markup 109% 0% 1 2022 7.28 0.90

Dealer Markup 127% 0% 1 2023 7.28 0.90

Builder Markup 109% 0% 1 2024 7.28 0.90

Sales Tax 104% 0% 1 2025 7.28 0.90

Std. Level 2026 7.28 0.90

Std Opt Price Multiplier 100% 0% 1 0 2027 7.28 0.90

108% 0% 1 1 2028 7.28 0.90

113% 0% 1 2 2029 7.28 0.90

138% 0% 1 3 2030 7.28 0.90

174% 0% 1 4

186% 0% 1 5

186% 0% 1 6

Page 1