OIL CROPS OUTLOOK                                               June 13, 1995
            Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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OIL CROPS OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic
Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. 
OCS-0695.  
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PERSISTENT RAINS DELAY 1995 SOYBEAN PLANTING; MORE ACREAGE EXPECTED
 
Planting of soybeans is considerably late with only 59 percent planted by June
11, compared with the 1990-94 average of 78 percent.  This is poles apart from
the rapid start of 1994/95 when a relatively dry May allowed 91 percent to be
planted.  In fact, this year's planting progress trails even the notoriously
late crop of 1993, when heavy rains and flooding similarly kept farmers out of
their fields.  The suspension of corn planting likely means more soybean
acreage will be planted in 1995 than indicated by March farmer intentions. 
This month USDA projected 1995/96 planted acreage at 62.7 million acres and
harvested acreage at 61.5 million.  Both are 1.2 million acres above March
intentions.
 
This year, the problem areas are in States neighboring the Missouri, Illinois,
and the Ohio rivers.  Precipitation was more than double the usual amount in
May for much of the Midwestern production area, and followed an already wet
April.  Planting progress in the next 2 weeks in Illinois, which would have
been 1995's top-ranked soybean State had farmers been able to plant the record
9.6 million acres they had intended, could be critical in determining whether
this year has another huge U.S. crop or a poor one.  Missouri had only 44
percent of corn and 17 percent of soybeans planted by June 11, a date on which
planting for both crops is usually quite advanced.  Flooding along the lower
Mississippi River has affected some prime soybean acres in Arkansas.  However,
unlike 1993 when the upper Mississippi River basin flooded, most Minnesota and
Iowa farmers have been able to plant on schedule.
 
But even with normal frost dates this fall, the late start jeopardizes a high
yield potential for soybeans in these States.  After June 21, the hours of
daylight shorten, resulting in flowering of plants that have not reached full
vegetative growth.  Immaturity in early August, when warm temperatures
normally enhance pod development, means that pod growth likely will occur
later during cooler days and nights, to the detriment of yield and oil
content.  This was the case in 1993, but may be less pronounced this year
because the delayed areas are farther south.  USDA dropped its forecast of
1995/96 yield to 36.0 bushels per acre, down from 36.5 bushels last month. 
The new forecast is based on a historical relationship between U.S. trend
yield and the departure from normal planting progress.
 
The combination of acreage and yield changes results in a 1995/96 production
forecast of 2,210 million bushels, 10 million more than last month's forecast
but 348 million below last year.  With an expected soybean carryover from the
1994/95 season of 410 million bushels, supplies in 1995/96 will likely be
adequate to maintain domestic crush and exports near this year's levels.  U.S.
soybean export prospects for 1995/96 were raised 15 million bushels in June to
775 million based on a weaker outlook for feed grain trade.  Higher feed grain
prices will also induce Southern Hemisphere farmers to plant more grain
acreage at the expense of oilseeds in the fall of 1995.  Projected ending
stocks for 1995/96 fell to 355 million bushels this month.  The stronger use
forecast lifted the expected season average price range for soybeans 15 cents
to $5.25-$6.25 per bushel.
 
Large beginning world stocks of soybeans, coupled with expected ample
production of oilseeds, will keep world oilseed supplies at 279 million metric
tons in 1995/96.  Foreign oilseed production is expected up 1 percent, as
relatively large increases in cottonseed and rapeseed production offset
relatively small declines in foreign soybean output.  The increase in foreign
oilseed production will compensate for a large decline in U.S. soybean output.
 
1995 CORN CROP DETERMINES PROBABLE COURSE OF SOYBEAN MEAL
 
The much smaller corn crop this year would help raise soybean meal exports. 
U.S. corn exports for 1995/96 are expected down 200 million bushels from a
year earlier.  This would be particularly relevant for EU feed compounders,
who would substitute relatively inexpensive soybean meal imports for feed
grain imports.  Although down from this year, 1995/96 U.S. exports of soybean
meal are up from the May forecast, to 5.7 million short tons.  But an even
larger carryover of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans should restrain U.S. meal
exports for 1995/96.  The firmer trade picture for next year raised the range
for soybean meal prices $5 per ton to $160-$185 per ton.  The higher protein
meal prices are likely to shave domestic disappearance, however, which is down
150,000 tons from the May forecast.
 
On the other hand, the prospect of rising corn prices in 1995/96 ($2.45-$2.85
per bushel versus $2.20-$2.30 in 1994/95) could touch off a contraction of
U.S. livestock herds, which already face low livestock-feed price ratios. 
Such a contraction would potentially curb domestic soybean meal consumption,
without regard to whether soybean supplies are large or small next year.
 
1994/95 U.S. SOYBEAN AND PRODUCT EXPORTS TO RISE AGAIN THIS MONTH
 
U.S. soybean and soybean meal exports were raised from last month to 810
million bushels and 6 million short tons, respectively, while U.S. soybean oil
exports are slightly higher at 2,500 million pounds.  The sharp increase in
U.S. exports for 1994/95 is primarily due to larger than expected demand and
reduced exports from competitors.
 
This year's exports of soybeans and meal (in soybean meal-equivalent) will be
the largest since 1987/88.  Exports of soybeans through March have already
equaled the total for all of 1993/94.  One indicator that partly explains the
export surge is the index of real trade-weighted dollar exchange rates, which
measures the percentage change in currency units per dollar, weighted by the
proportion of commodity exports from the United States.  The index for
soybeans is the lowest in 20 years, and the lowest since 1981 when compared to
competing soybean exporters.  Coupled with record soybean production, the
lower valued dollar has made U.S. exports very competitive in 1994/95.
 
EU imports for 1994/95 (in soybean equivalent) were increased by 100,000
metric tons from last month, due to excellent crush margins and relatively low
soybean meal prices.  Japan's imports were also increased 100,000 metric tons,
showing no evidence of slowing due to January's earthquake.
 
Projected soybean exports from Brazil were reduced 500,000 metric tons,
because of slow export sales.  Europe and Japan, Brazil's primary soybean 
buyers, have shown less interest in Brazilian exports.  Uncertainties over
Brazilian soybean deliveries due to port strikes and the refusal by farmers to
sell at extremely low prices have shifted European crushers to U.S. soybeans.
 
Projected soybean meal exports from India were again reduced this month to 1.5
million tons, partially offsetting increases in China's soybean meal exports. 
Strong demand from the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, and Europe
has stimulated additional exports from the United States.
 
U.S. soybean oil exports in 1994/95, which were raised 50 million pounds to
2.5 billion, are the second largest on record.  Cumulative U.S. soybean oil
exports from October 1994 through March 1995 were 1,913 million pounds.
 
SOYBEAN PRODUCT EXPORTS SUSTAIN 1994/95 DOMESTIC CRUSH
 
The U.S. soybean crush forecast for 1994/95 was raised 5 million bushels this
month to 1,385 million bushels.  Cumulative crush for 1994/95 (September-
April) was 967.5 million bushels.  This implies an average monthly crush of
104 million bushels to reach the forecast total.  May-August crush in 1993/94
averaged 100 million bushels per month.  The April crush declined from the
March total, but ran 13 percent above the year-earlier volume.
 
The larger use figures lowered the 1994/95 ending stocks projection 15 million
bushels to 410 million.  A slightly stronger price outlook for the remainder
of the season increased the average 1994/95 price 5 cents from last month's
forecast to $5.45 per bushel.
 
Total meal disappearance slumped in April to the lowest monthly volume of
1994/95 as both exports and domestic disappearance declined.  Nonetheless,
USDA estimated a higher average price of high-protein soybean meal for the
year at $157.50 per ton, as weather concerns in late May lifted feed prices.
 
Domestic soybean oil production for 1994/95 was forecast 55 million pounds
higher to 15,372 million pounds, based on a larger expected crush.  The
production increase will be needed to keep up with export demand.  Yearend
stocks were projected higher (to 1,085 million pounds) as domestic
disappearance is now expected to fall 41 million pounds short of the 1993/94
use.  While still healthy, total offtake of soybean oil fell in May from
April's monthly record.
 
MOUNTING PRODUCTS DEMAND SPURS ROBUST U.S. SUNFLOWERSEED CRUSH 
 
This month, USDA forecast sunflowerseed crush 68,000 tons higher, to 1.2
million metric tons.  And although U.S. exports of sunflowerseed for 1994/95
have not met previous expectations, the revised forecast is 238,000 metric
tons, which is still more than double last season.  The large 1994 crop has
permitted a great expansion in both export and domestic demand.
 
This year's remarkable increase in crush is due to a strong offtake of
sunflower oil and meal.  U.S. exports of sunflowerseed oil are well on the way
to a new record of 350,000 metric tons.  And total domestic disappearance for
1994/95 would rank second to the 179,000-ton record of 1991/92.  This year's
anticipated domestic disappearance of sunflowerseed oil is 125,000 metric
tons, up 27,000 tons from last month.
 
This year, domestic disappearance of sunflower meal is estimated to be 544,000
metric tons, up 13,000 from the May forecast.  This is 21 percent larger than
the previous record of 1991/92.  Sunflower meal exports are also on target to
set a new high of 68,000 metric tons.  While sunflowerseed meal prices have
been very low this season (and the reason behind the record disappearance),
the projected season average price slightly increased to $60 per short ton
this month from $57.50.  This price compares to the $94-per-ton average of
1993/94.
 
******************************************************************************
Information Contacts:
Mark Ash         Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Fats and Oils    (202) 219-0838
Scott Sanford    Peanuts, Cottonseed                        (202) 219-0835
Jaime Casteneda  World Oilseeds                             (202) 219-0826
******************************************************************************
 
The next release of the OIL CROPS OUTLOOK is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET
Thursday, July 13.
 
Table 1--Soybeans:  U.S. supply and disappearance
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                     Supply                          Disappearance 
        --------------------------------  ------------------------------------
Year                                                     Seed,                
begin.     Beg.   Im-   Produc-  Total    Crush   Ex-    feed,    Total   End.
Sept. 1  stocks  ports   tion                    ports & resid.         stocks
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         -------------------------- Million bushels---------------------------
 
1993/94     292    6    1,871    2,170     1,276    589     96    1,961    209
1994/95 1/  209    8    2,558    2,775     1,385    810    170    2,365    410
1995/96 2/  410    5    2,210    2,625     1,375    775    120    2,270    355
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1/ Estimated.  2/ Forecast.
 
Table 2--Soybean meal:  U.S. supply and disappearance
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                 Supply                           Disappearance 
        ----------------------------     ------------------------------------
Year 
begin.      Beg.    Produc-   Total      Domestic   Ex-     Total    End.
Oct. 1    stocks     tion                           ports           stocks
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         ------------------------------1,000 tons-----------------------------
 
1993/94     204     30,417    30,691       25,185   5,356   30,541    150
1994/95 1/  150     32,765    32,975       26,725   6,000   32,725    250
1995/96 2/  250     32,685    33,000       27,050   5,700   32,750    250
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1/ Estimated.  2/ Forecast.
 
Table 3--Soybean oil:  U.S. supply and disappearance
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                 Supply                           Disappearance 
        ----------------------------     ------------------------------------
Year 
begin.       Beg.   Produc-   Total     Domestic  Ex-     Total     End.
Oct. 1     stocks    tion                         ports            stocks
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         -------------------------- Million pounds---------------------------
 
1993/94     1,555   13,951   15,574       12,941   1,529   14,471   1,103
1994/95 1/  1,103   15,372   16,485       12,900   2,500   15,400   1,085
1995/96 2/  1,085   15,400   16,495       13,100   1,900   15,000   1,495
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1/ Estimated.  2/ Forecast.
 
Table 4--Oilseeds prices received by farmers, U.S.
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Marketing      Soy-  Cotton-  Sun-            
 year         beans   seed   flowers  Peanuts  Flaxseed
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              $/bu.   $/ton   $/cwt   Cents/lb  $/bu.
                                     
1990/91        5.74  121.00    10.80    34.70   5.27
1991/92        5.58   71.00     8.69    28.30   3.52
1992/93        5.56   97.50     9.74    30.00   4.12
1993/94        6.40  113.00    12.90    30.40   4.25
 
1993/94:
September      6.21  104.00    14.20    32.00   4.24
October        6.01  112.00    11.20    30.00   4.09
November       6.32  122.00    11.60    29.50   4.05
December       6.64  123.00    13.00    29.70   4.18
January        6.72  126.00    13.60    36.10   4.38
February       6.71   97.00    15.10     NA     4.61
March          6.73     NA     15.00     NA     4.64
April          6.57     NA     15.00     NA     4.60
May            6.77     NA     15.60     NA     4.43
June           6.72     NA     14.20     NA     4.25
July           5.92     NA     12.40     NA     4.28
August         5.58   89.00    12.60     NA     4.52
 
1994/95
September      5.47  101.00    10.70    30.30   4.54
October        5.30   96.00    10.80    28.80   4.49
November       5.36  107.00    10.60    25.60   4.51
December       5.41  104.00    10.30    25.40   4.71
January        5.47  101.00    10.60    25.70   4.75
February       5.40   97.00    10.80     NA     4.94
March          5.51    NA      10.40     NA     5.15
April          5.55    NA      10.70     NA     5.10
May1           5.44    NA      10.30     NA     4.85
--------------------------------------------------------
1 Preliminary.
 
Table 5--Vegetable oil prices
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                      Cotton-  Sun-       
Marketing    Soybean   seed   flower Peanut  Corn  
 year          oil2     oil3    oil4  oil5    oil6 
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                     Cents/lb.
                                                   
1990/91       21.00    22.30   23.60  45.50  27.50 
1991/92       19.10    20.10   21.60  27.30  25.82 
1992/93       21.40    25.00   25.30  27.40  20.90 
1993/94       27.09    27.78   31.00  43.20  26.38 
                                                   
                                                   
1993/94:                                           
October       22.96    24.79   26.33  40.20  22.25 
November      25.43    26.69   28.20  43.33  23.06 
December      28.27    30.39   32.11  43.17  26.93 
January       29.91    33.16   35.08  46.10  28.00 
February      28.85    29.96   33.68  46.12  29.89 
March         29.03    29.60   33.48  44.50  30.30 
April         27.90    29.06   33.00  43.40  29.63 
May           29.10    29.66   33.50  44.25  29.48 
June          27.60    27.55   31.34  43.75  29.43 
July          24.53    24.20   28.89  44.00  27.20 
August        25.38    23.71   28.13  45.00  25.02 
September     26.12    24.51   29.28  43.10  24.87 
                                                   
1994/95                                            
October       27.06    23.64   28.90  46.00  24.73 
November      29.84    24.85   29.40  50.88  24.75 
December      30.61    25.50   30.63  53.80  24.75 
January       29.04    26.41   29.25  50.25  28.01 
February      28.15    25.63   27.66  41.83  27.26 
March         28.33    26.41   27.97  41.00  28.17 
April         27.16    24.00   26.89  41.25  27.30 
May1          25.46    24.24   26.20  40.25  26.42 
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1 Preliminary 2 Decatur 3 Valley points 4 Minneapolis 5 Southeast mills
6 Chicago
 
Table 6--Oilseed meal prices
---------------------------------------------------
             Soy-   Cotton   Sun-           
Marketing    bean    seed   flower  Peanut  Linseed
 year        meal2   meal3   meal4   meal5   meal4
---------------------------------------------------
                        $/Short ton
1990/91     181.40  130.75   88.00  193.00  130.10
1991/92     189.20  140.50   76.80  154.50  125.25
1992/93     193.75  161.78   89.00  172.90  133.60
1993/94     192.86  164.30   94.00  194.91  139.55
 
1993/94:
October     194.50  173.10   90.00  196.00  147.50
November    209.40  181.00   90.00  197.00  161.80
December    206.00  180.00   89.40  200.00  155.25
January     198.30  170.30   97.00  209.00  140.25
February    198.40  173.10   98.75  207.50  136.25
March       195.40  174.00    N/Q   198.75  127.20
April       188.90  166.25    N/Q   191.00  125.50
May         193.75  157.75  105.00  187.50  125.00
June        195.50  154.10  102.50  163.75  111.90
July        181.10  152.50   97.50  164.00  114.90
August      178.60  144.50   90.75  153.75  111.60
September   174.50  145.00   85.00  114.80   NA
 
1994/95
October     168.50  134.40   75.00  151.25  122.50
November    161.00  120.50   69.50  147.50  110.00
December    156.90  114.20   52.50  127.00   95.60
January     156.40  106.75   50.00  105.00   82.40
February    151.30   97.50   46.88  107.50   85.25
March       156.90  100.30   52.50  119.00   90.00
April       161.90   98.10   62.50  125.00   94.40
May1        159.39   89.58   60.60  123.75   85.00
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1 Preliminary 2 Hi-pro Decatur 3 41% Memphis 4 Minneapolis 5 50% SE mills
 
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