DHS ANALYTICAL 

STUDIES 46

Impact of Scale-up of Maternal 

and Delivery Care on Reductions

in Neonatal Mortality in USAID MCH

Priority Countries, 2000-2010

SEPTEMBER 2014

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by 

Rebecca Winter, Thomas Pullum, Lia Florey, and Stephen Hodgins.

DHS Analytical Studies No. 46 

Impact of Scale-up of Maternal and Delivery Care 

on Reductions in Neonatal Mortality 

in USAID MCH Priority Countries, 2000-2010 

Rebecca Winter 

Thomas Pullum 

Lia Florey 

Steve Hodgins 

ICF International 

Rockville, Maryland, USA 

September 2014 

Corresponding author: Rebecca Winter, International Health and Development, ICF International, 530 

Gaither Road, Suite 500, Rockville, Maryland, USA; telephone: 301–572– 0541; fax: 301- 407-6501; 

email: Rebecca.Winter@icfi.com 
Acknowledgment: The authors are grateful for input from Marge Koblinsky, Anne Langston, Clara 

Burgert, and Matt Pagan, and a review by Allisyn Moran.

Editor: Bryant Robey 

Document Production: Yuan Cheng 

This study was carried out with support provided by the United States Agency for International 

Development (USAID) through The DHS Program (AID-OAA-C-13-00095). The views expressed are 

those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. 

The DHS Program assists countries worldwide in the collection and use of data to monitor and evaluate 

population, health, and nutrition programs. For additional information about the DHS Program contact: 

DHS Program, ICF International, 530 Gaither Road, Suite 500, Rockville, MD 20850, USA; phone: 301-

407-6500, fax: 301-407-6501, email: reports@dhsprogram.com, Internet: www.dhsprogram.com. 

Recommended citation: 

Winter, Rebecca, Thomas Pullum, Lia Florey, and Steve Hodgins. 2014. Impact of Scale-up of Maternal 

and Delivery Care on Reductions in Neonatal Mortality in USAID MCH Priority Countries, 2000-2010. 

DHS Analytical Studies No. 46. Rockville, Maryland, USA: ICF International. 
iii 

Contents 

Tables ........................................................................................................................................................... v 

Figures ......................................................................................................................................................... vi 

Preface ........................................................................................................................................................ vii 

Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................... ix 

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... xi 

1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1 

1.1. Rationale for This Study ............................................................................................................... 1 

1.2. Background ................................................................................................................................... 1 

2. Data and Methods ................................................................................................................................... 7 

2.1. Data .............................................................................................................................................. 7 

2.2. Definitions of Indicators ............................................................................................................... 8 

2.3. Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 12 

2.4. Study Limitations ........................................................................................................................ 13 

3. Results .................................................................................................................................................... 17 

3.1. Trends in Coverage of Maternal and Delivery Care and Socio-Demographic 

Characteristics ............................................................................................................................ 25 

3.2. Multivariate Regression Results ................................................................................................. 38 

3.3. Multivariate Decomposition Results ........................................................................................... 50 

4. Discussion and Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 57 

References .................................................................................................................................................. 65 

Appendix A1 .............................................................................................................................................. 69 

Appendix A2 .............................................................................................................................................. 76 

Appendix A3 .............................................................................................................................................. 86 

v 

Tables 

Table 1. Causes of neonatal mortality and globally recommended interventions ........................................ 5 

Table 2. USAID priority countries for maternal and child health and DHS survey availability .................. 8 

Table 3. Trend in neonatal mortality rate among children born in the five years preceding the survey, 

USAID MCH priority countries ................................................................................................... 18 

Table 4. Trend in socio-demographic characteristics of the household, mother, and child, and in 

coverage of recommended maternal and delivery care, among women's most recent 

children born in the five years preceding the survey, USAID MCH priority countries with 

significant reductions in NMR ..................................................................................................... 34 

Table 5. Relative risk of dying during the neonatal period, adjusted for socio-demographic 

characteristics of the household, mother, and child, among women's most recent children 

born in the five years preceding the surveys, USAID MCH priority countries with 

significant reductions in NMR ..................................................................................................... 39 

Table 6. Adjusted relative risk of dying during the neonatal period, among women's most recent 

children born in the five years preceding the surveys, USAID MCH priority countries with 

significant reductions in NMR ..................................................................................................... 44 

Table 7. Multivariate decomposition of socio-demographic and maternal and delivery care related 

differences in the NMR between baseline and endline surveys, showing contributions to the 

NMR gap attributed to differences in endowments and to differences in coefficients, 

USAID MCH priority countries with significant reductions in NMR ......................................... 52 

Appendix Table A1. Unadjusted and adjusted relative risk of dying during the neonatal period, 

among children born in the five years preceding the surveys, USAID MCH priority 

countries with significant reductions in NMR ............................................................................. 69 

Appendix Table A2. Unadjusted relative risk of dying during the neonatal period, among women's 

most recent children born in the five years preceding the surveys, USAID MCH priority 

countries with significant reductions in NMR ............................................................................. 76 
vi 

Figures 

Figure 1. USAID priority countries for maternal and child health ............................................................. 2 

Figure 2. Global causes of neonatal deaths, 2012 ...................................................................................... 3 

Figure 3. Neonatal mortality rate among most recent births, previous births, and all births in the 

five years preceding the survey, Rwanda 2000 and 2010 ......................................................... 14 

Figure 4. Reductions in neonatal mortality among USAID priority countries for maternal and child 

health ......................................................................................................................................... 17 

Figures 5a-i. Trends in maternal and delivery care and neonatal mortality, separately by country, 

USAID MCH priority countries with significant improvements in NMR ................................ 19 

Figures 5j-r. Trends in maternal and delivery care and neonatal mortality, separately by country, 

USAID MCH priority countries with no significant improvement in NMR between 

surveys ...................................................................................................................................... 22 

Figure 6. Trend in the mother's use of four or more antenatal care visits during pregnancy, among 

most recent children born in the five years preceding the survey ............................................. 26 

Figure 7. Trend in two or more tetanus injections given to the mother during pregnancy, among 

most recent children born in the five years preceding the survey ............................................. 27 

Figure 8. Trend in iron and folic acid supplementation for the mother among most recent children 

born in the five years preceding the survey .............................................................................. 28 

Figure 9. Trend in skilled birth attendance among most recent children born in the five years 

preceding the survey ................................................................................................................. 29 

Figure 10. Trend in household ownership of a mosquito bednet among most recent children born in 

the five years preceding the survey ........................................................................................... 30 

Figure 11. Trend in the mother's use of two doses of SP during pregnancy among most recent 

children born in the five years preceding the survey ................................................................ 30 

Figure 12. Adjusted effect of individual SBA use, across levels of community-SBA coverage, India 

2005/6 DHS .............................................................................................................................. 59 

Appendix Figure A3. Correlation between the change in NMR and the change in skilled birth 

attendance in 18 high-burden countries for maternal and newborn mortality .......................... 86 
vii 

Preface 

The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program is one of the principal sources of international data 

on fertility, family planning, maternal and child health, nutrition, mortality, environmental health, 

HIV/AIDS, malaria, and provision of health services. 

One of the objectives of The DHS Program is to analyze DHS data and provide findings that will be useful 

to policymakers and program managers in low- and middle-income countries. DHS Analytical Studies serve 

this objective by providing in-depth research on a wide range of topics, typically including several countries 

and applying multivariate statistical tools and models. These reports are also intended to illustrate research 

methods and applications of DHS data that may build the capacity of other researchers. 

The topics in the DHS Analytical Studies series are selected by The DHS Program in consultation with the 

U.S. Agency for International Development. 

It is hoped that the DHS Analytical Studies will be useful to researchers, policymakers, and survey 

specialists, particularly those engaged in work in low- and middle-income countries. 

Sunita Kishor 

Director, The DHS Program 

ix 

Abstract 

Globally, the impressive gains in under-five mortality between 2000 and 2010 have been accompanied by 

more modest reductions in neonatal mortality. Of the 18 USAID priority countries for maternal and child 

health with two DHS surveys available around the years 2000 and 2010, only nine have shown statistically 

significant reductions in neonatal mortality. In six of the nine countries, these reductions remain significant 

after restricting the study population to most recent children born in the five years preceding the survey. 

The study investigates the extent to which scale-up of maternal and delivery care is associated with 

reductions in neonatal mortality among most recent children born in the six countries. We find surprisingly 

little evidence that changes in coverage of measurable indicators of maternal and delivery care contributed 

to the improvements in neonatal survival. In the three malarious countries with complete mosquito bednet 

data for both surveys, household ownership of a mosquito bednet stands out as a driver of the observed 

reductions. This finding highlights the importance of malaria control in the arsenal of maternal and child 

health interventions. Overall, weak associations between other indicators of maternal and delivery care and 

neonatal survival were observed. This may be the result of limitations of population-based surveys to 

measure accurately the protective aspects of the interventions. The weak findings may also point to an issue 

of quality of care, highlighting the need to ensure that there is an emphasis on strengthening health systems 

and improving the quality of care alongside efforts to increase use of delivery health services. 

Keywords: neonatal mortality, child survival, maternal and child health 

xi 

Executive Summary 

Globally, the impressive gains in under-five mortality between 2000 and 2010 have been accompanied by 

more modest reductions in neonatal mortality. As a result, the percentage of under-five deaths that are 

neonatal has increased from 38 percent in 2000 to 44 percent in 2012. To continue making gains in child 

survival, it has become increasingly important to understand and address the unique determinants of 

neonatal mortality, and to identify which interventions are effective in promoting neonatal survival. This 

report identifies USAID priority countries for maternal and child health (MCH) with a statistically 

significant reduction in neonatal mortality between about 2000 to 2010, and examines the extent to which 

the scale-up of coverage of measurable components of maternal and delivery care is associated with the 

observed reductions. 

Of the 18 USAID MCH priority countries with two DHS surveys available around the years 2000 and 2010, 

only nine have shown statistically significant reductions in neonatal mortality. In six of the nine countries—

Bangladesh, India, Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda and mainland Tanzania—these reductions remain 

significant after restricting the study population to most recent children born in the five years preceding the 

survey. The study investigates the impact of maternal and delivery care in those six countries. The analysis 

has two main components. First, multivariate log probability models identify which components of maternal 

and delivery care are independently associated with neonatal mortality cross-sectionally within individual 

surveys, and second, decomposition of the observed reductions in the neonatal mortality rate (NMR) 

identifies components of maternal and delivery care that are significantly associated with the observed 

reductions. 

In most settings there has been some improvement in the coverage of indicators of maternal and delivery 

care—e.g. four or more ANC visits made during the pregnancy, the provision of tetanus vaccination and 

iron/folic acid supplementation during pregnancy, the provision of two doses of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine 

(SP) during pregnancy in malarious sub-Saharan African countries, delivery by a skilled birth attendant, 

and household ownership of mosquito bednets. Contrary to our expectation, however, coverage of these 

interventions is not consistently associated with lower risk of neonatal mortality. The number of antenatal 

care visits that a mother had made remains significantly associated with neonatal survival in the expected 

direction in only four of the six countries’ 12 surveys, after adjusting for the mother’s use of other 

components of care and for socio-demographic characteristics. In five of the 12 surveys, the number of 

tetanus injections the mother received during pregnancy remains independently associated with the child’s 

risk of dying in the first month of life, in the expected direction. Household ownership of a mosquito bednet 

remains significantly associated with neonatal mortality in three of the seven surveys with available 

mosquito bednet information. The study finds no evidence that receipt of at least 90 days of iron and folic 

acid supplementation or at least two doses of SP during pregnancy is associated with the risk of neonatal 

mortality, independent of the benefits of other components of maternal and delivery care. The final model 

also shows no evidence that delivery by a skilled birth attendant (SBA) is protective against neonatal 

mortality, although in one survey there is a significant community-level effect of SBA use, such that 

children born in communities with no coverage of SBA are more likely to die during the first month of life 

compared with children born in clusters with full SBA coverage. 

In line with the cross-sectional results, the decomposition of observed reductions in the NMR provides only 

weak evidence that the scale-up of maternal and delivery care has contributed to observed reductions in the 

NMR. No single indicator of care contributed significantly to the reduction in neonatal mortality in more 

than one country, except for mosquito bednet coverage. In the three malarious countries with data on 

mosquito bednet ownership—Malawi, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania—the rapid increase in household 

ownership of mosquito bednets stands out as a driving force behind the observed reductions in neonatal 

mortality. In all three countries, mosquito bednet ownership was significantly associated with the reduction 
xii 

in the NMR between the 2000 and 2010 surveys, even after adjusting for the effects of key components of 

maternal and delivery care, the spatial level of malaria risk, and key socio-demographic characteristics.

Changes in the distribution of the mother’s education level, the mother’s age at child’s birth, the child’s 

birth order, and the preceding birth interval were each associated with changes in neonatal mortality in at 

least one country, highlighting the importance of women’s education and family planning to neonatal 

survival. 

In conclusion, between roughly 2000 and 2010 only nine of 18 USAID MCH priority countries showed 

significant improvements in neonatal survival—reinforcing the urgency of international commitment to 

preventing neonatal deaths. Study findings point to the importance of protecting the mother against malaria 

during pregnancy and reinforce the relevance of family planning to neonatal survival. The study found little 

evidence that the scale-up of other components of maternal and delivery care has contributed to observed 

reductions in neonatal mortality in the six countries for which the study investigated the impact of maternal 

and delivery care. Poor-quality services could in part explain this result, highlighting the need to ensure 

that there is an emphasis on strengthening health systems and improving the quality of care alongside efforts 

to increase use of delivery health services. The weak findings also highlight our current lack of data on 

other practices that could impact neonatal mortality, such as immediate newborn care, care of the cord, 

resuscitation, and kangaroo mother care for low birth weight babies. 
1 

1. Introduction 

1.1. Rationale for This Study 

Globally, there has been a substantial decline in under-five mortality since 2000, from 73 deaths per 1,000 

live births in 2000 to 57 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2010 (United Nations Inter‐agency Group for Child 

Mortality Estimation 2011). Overall, most of the improvement has been after the first month of life. 

Declines during the first month of life—that is, neonatal deaths— have been modest and inconsistent over 

this period. As a result, the percentage of under-five deaths that are neonatal has increased from 38 percent 

in 2000 to 44 percent in 2012 (Liu et al. 2012; UNICEF 2013b). To continue making gains in child survival, 

it has become increasingly important to understand and address the unique determinants of neonatal 

mortality, and to identify which interventions are effective in promoting neonatal survival. 

This report identifies countries with a statistically significant reduction in neonatal mortality during an 

interval roughly described as 2000 to 2010, and examines the extent to which the scale-up of coverage of 

measurable components of maternal and delivery care is associated with the observed reductions. The 

findings are intended to inform ongoing neonatal survival programs and help allocate future resources. 

Chapter 1 provides background information on causes of neonatal mortality and on essential maternal and 

delivery care interventions that are known to promote neonatal survival. Chapter 2 describes the data and 

the methodology of the study, defines all variables, and presents study limitations. Chapter 3, with results, 

has two sections. First, we present trends in neonatal mortality in the 18 USAID maternal and child health 

(MCH) priority countries for which two Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) are available between 

2000 and 2010. Second, the analysis shifts to a focus on six countries identified with a significant reduction 

in the neonatal mortality rate (NMR) among most recent children born in the five years preceding the 

survey. In these six countries, we present (1) trends in coverage of components of maternal and delivery 

care and socio-demographic factors believed to be associated with neonatal mortality, (2) multivariate log 

probability models to identify which components of maternal and delivery care are independently 

associated with neonatal mortality, and (3) a multivariate decomposition to identify the components of 

maternal and delivery care that are significantly associated with the observed declines in NMR. Chapter 4 

provides interpretation of key findings, overall conclusions, and policy implications. 

1.2. Background 

Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) established the target of a two-thirds reduction in under-five 

mortality between 1990 and 2015. Global estimates from 2012 show that approximately 44 percent of all 

deaths in children under age 5 occur during the neonatal period (UNICEF 2013a). While many countries 

have made progress in reducing deaths among children under age 5—in fact, UNICEF estimates suggest 

that the overall global under-five mortality rate fell by nearly 50 percent between 1990 and 2012—these 

gains have been predominantly among children age 1-4 (UNICEF 2013a). Far less progress has been made 

in reducing the mortality risk for children under age 12 months, and especially in the first month of life. As 

a result, as total under-five morality has decreased, the proportion of those deaths that occur during the 

neonatal period has increased (Lawn et al. 2005). In order to continue making improvements in under-five 

survival, a better understanding of the unique, complex causes of neonatal death is needed. 

There is an increasing recognition that improvements in newborn survival have lagged behind 

improvements in maternal and child survival, and international attention has shifted to focus more on 

protecting the life of the newborn. Catalyzing and guiding new commitments to saving newborn lives and 

preventing stillbirths, the Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP) was released in Spring 2014. This action 

plan, coordinated by UNICEF and the World Health Organization (WHO) with other organizations, 
2 

governments, and groups, incorporates the latest findings on the effectiveness of life-saving interventions 

for newborns and sets forth a vision of “a world in which there are no preventable deaths of newborns or 

stillbirths, where every pregnancy is wanted, every birth celebrated, and women, babies and children 

survive, thrive and reach their full potential” (WHO 2014). To the extent possible given data constraints, 

indicators in the current study align with those vetted in the ENAP framework. 

The vast majority of neonatal deaths occur in low and middle income countries, with the highest numbers 

occurring in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, more than 40 percent of all neonatal deaths 

worldwide occur in just three countries: India, Nigeria, and Pakistan (UNICEF 2013a). Based on the 

distribution of the global burden of maternal and child death, USAID selected 24 MCH priority countries—

displayed in Figure 1—to be the focus of programmatic efforts to scale up high-impact interventions and 

strengthen health systems. These 24 priority countries, which account for more than 70 percent of global 

maternal deaths (USAID 2013), are the focus of the current study. 

Figure 1. USAID priority countries for maternal and child health 

1.2.1. Causes of neonatal death

Approximately three-quarters of neonatal deaths take place in the first seven days after birth (Lawn et al. 

2005). Unlike older children, who often die of infections, newborns most often suffer from complications 

of preterm birth, intrapartum-related complications (such as birth asphyxia), and congenital conditions. In 

the remainder of the first month after birth, sepsis and other infections play a major role. As Figure 2 shows, 

globally in 2012, 35 percent of neonatal deaths were caused by preterm birth complications, 24 percent 

were caused by intrapartum-related complications, and 20 percent by sepsis, meningitis, or pneumonia. An 

additional 9 percent of neonatal deaths were caused by congenital conditions, 2 percent by tetanus, and 1 

percent by diarrhea (WHO 2014). 
3 

Figure 2. Global causes of neonatal deaths, 2012 

Source: WHO 2014. 

1.2.2. Globally-recommended interventions 

Most of the causes of neonatal deaths are treatable with simple interventions. It is estimated that over twothirds of neonatal deaths are preventable without intensive care (UNICEF 2013a). Global health attention 

to promote newborn survival has focused on packages of interventions directed at women and infants along 

the continuum of care from preconception to infancy (Darmstadt et al. 2005; Liu et al. 2012; The Partnership 

for Maternal Newborn & Child Health 2011). These include 1) reproductive health services, health 

promotion, and education for girls and women before they become pregnant; 2) focused antenatal care; 3) 

skilled attendance at birth, including emergency obstetric and newborn care; 4) postnatal care for early 

identification and referral of illness and provision of preventive care; and 5) emergency newborn care and 

kangaroo mother care for infants with low birth weight. In addition to these packages, several cross-cutting 

programs have been emphasized for their impact on maternal and child health: nutrition and breastfeeding 

promotion, prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV, malaria prevention, and immunization. 

Together it has been estimated that these interventions could avert 41-72 percent of newborn deaths 

worldwide1

 (Darmstadt et al. 2005). 

These packages of interventions are outlined in Table 1, which aligns the most common direct causes of 

neonatal death globally (Liu et al. 2012) with the most commonly recommended interventions to address 

 

1

 Darmstadt and colleagues estimated the percentage of neonatal deaths that could be averted using estimates from 

published work and expert opinion on the efficacy and effectiveness of 16 key interventions to prevent specific causes 

of neonatal death. This information was combined with country-specific information on intervention coverage, 

population dynamics, and cause-specific numbers of neonatal death for 75 countries (Darmstadt et al. 2005). 

Complications 

from preterm birth 

35%

Intrapartumrelated 24%

Sepsis/meningitis 

15%

Pneumonia 5%

Congenital 9%

Other 8%

Tetanus 2% Diarrhaea 1%
4 

them at the community/family, health facility, and policy levels (Darmstadt et al. 2005; The Partnership for 

Maternal Newborn & Child Health 2011; Winter et al. 2013). 

In addition to the direct causes of neonatal deaths listed in Table 1, there are indirect causes. Low birth 

weight (<2.5 kg), which makes newborns more vulnerable to infection and other stressors, is the most 

important indirect cause. Low birth weight is often due to prematurity but can also result from intrauterine 

growth restriction (Blencowe et al. 2012). In sub-Saharan Africa, low-birth-weight infants are three times 

more likely to die in the first year, and nine times more likely to die in the first month compared with infants 

born with a normal weight (Guyatt and Snow 2001). 

Factors contributing to low birth weight include infections such as malaria and HIV, short birth intervals, 

poor maternal nutrition, the mother’s age (under age 18 or over age 34), smoking, and alcohol abuse. 

Interventions that address direct causes of death also reduce the incidence of low birth weight, including 

early detection of problems and risk factors during the pregnancy; prevention or screening and effective 

treatment for infection or anemia; counseling for pregnant women on nutrition and self-care; and family 

planning to prevent unwanted pregnancies among adolescents and older women and to ensure optimal birth 

spacing (Lawn et al. 2005). 

While interventions along the full continuum of care from preconception through infancy are important to 

neonatal survival, the 2014 Every Newborn Action Plan emphasizes the vital importance of the period 

directly surrounding the newborn’s birth, when both the mother and the newborn are at highest risk for 

morbidity and mortality–that is, during labor, during childbirth, and in the first days of life (WHO 2014). 

According to the ENAP, two packages of care have the greatest impact on ending preventable neonatal 

deaths and stillbirths. These are (1) care during labor, childbirth, and the first week of life; and (2) care for 

the small and sick newborn. The first package includes skilled care at birth; basic and comprehensive 

obstetric care; management of preterm births with antenatal corticosteroids; and essential newborn care, 

which includes hygienic care, thermal control, support for breastfeeding, and newborn resuscitation if 

needed. Care for the newborn also includes early initiation of exclusive breastfeeding, prevention of 

hypothermia, clean postnatal care practices, and appropriate cord care. The WHO postnatal care 

recommendation is for the mother and the newborn to have close observation for 24 hours and three 

additional postnatal contacts in the six weeks following delivery (WHO 2014). The second package, care 

for small and sick newborns, includes interventions to respond to complications from preterm birth and/or 

low birth weight, and neonatal infections. Appropriate care for small and sick newborns includes extra 

thermal care and support for feeding for small or preterm babies, including kangaroo mother care, antibiotic 

treatment for infections, and full supportive facility care (WHO 2014). 

To the extent possible, the study identifies indicators of coverage of the first package of care (care during 

labor, childbirth, and the first week of life), but given data limitations, the study is not able to assess extra 

care provided to small or sick newborns. 

 

 
5 

Table 1. Causes of neonatal mortality and globally recommended interventions 

Category/cause 

of mortality 

Community/family 

interventions 

Health service 

interventions 

Policy/health system 

interventions 

Intrapartum-related 

complications (birth 

asphyxia) 

birth preparedness 

planning, demand for 

skilled delivery services, 

rapid transportation or 

“waiting homes” 

24-hour skilled care, 

including C-section, 

newborn resuscitation, 

thermal care 

assure financial and geographic 

accessibility of services, general 

health system strengthening 

(ensure adequate human 

resources for health, hold 

providers accountable for 

quality, infrastructure, and 

supply chain) 

Preterm birth 

complications 

delay of first pregnancy, 

maternal nutrition, optimal 

birth spacing, kangaroo 

care, breastfeeding 

eclampsia and preeclampsia prevention, 

intermittent presumptive 

treatment for malaria, 

detection and treatment of 

asymptomatic bacteriuria, 

antenatal steroids, PMTCT 

same as above, plus provide 

access to family planning 

services, ensure services are 

accessible to adolescents 

Sepsis/ meningitis/ 

tetanus 

demand for ANC, 

breastfeeding, clean home 

delivery, handwashing, 

hygienic cord care, thermal 

care 

immunization, antibiotics for 

premature rupture of 

membranes, support for 

early and exclusive 

breastfeeding, postnatal 

evaluation 

same as for intrapartum-related 

complications, plus support for 

community-level interventions 

Congenital 

abnormalities 

self-care behaviors 

(smoking, alcohol) 

folic acid support for community-level 

interventions, food fortification 

Other neonatal 

disorders (including 

severe malnutrition) 

early and exclusive 

breastfeeding, support for 

improved nutrition of 

mother 

support for early and 

exclusive breastfeeding, 

postnatal care 

support for community-level 

interventions 

Pneumonia care seeking for sick 

newborns, community case 

management of pneumonia 

facility supervision of 

CHWs, integrated 

management of childhood 

illness 

support for community-level 

interventions, community case 

management 

Diarrhea care seeking for sick 

newborns, exclusive 

breastfeeding, 

handwashing and other 

hygiene behaviors 

facility supervision of 

CHWs, integrated 

management of childhood 

illness, routine 

immunization against 

Rotavirus 

support for community-level 

interventions, community case 

management 

Source: The table, previously presented in Winter et al. 2013, compiles information from Darmstadt et al. 2005, Liu 

et al. 2012, and The Partnership for Maternal Newborn & Child Health 2011. 

Note: Not all interventions included in this table are recommended or being implemented in all study countries. 

 
6 

1.2.3. Malaria in pregnancy 

In many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, an important cause of low birth weight is that the mother had 

malaria during the pregnancy. As mentioned, the primary direct causes of neonatal death in sub-Saharan 

Africa are prematurity (33 percent), intrapartum-related complications (asphyxia) (20 percent), and sepsis 

and meningitis (10 percent) (Liu et al. 2012). Low birth weight, which encompasses both preterm birth and 

intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), is a major indirect cause of neonatal death (Lawn et al. 2005). Thus 

malaria in pregnancy can be a major contributor to neonatal morbidity and mortality (Guyatt and Snow 

2001). The recommended interventions to address malaria in pregnancy are sleeping under insecticide 

treated nets (ITN) and—in high and medium transmission countries in sub-Saharan Africa—intermittent 

presumptive treatment (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP). Both ITNs and IPTp have been found 

to be very effective in reducing malaria-attributable neonatal deaths (Eisele et al. 2012; Menéndez et al. 

2010). WHO recommends universal coverage with ITNs for people living in or visiting a malaria-endemic 

region. Each household should own enough ITNs so that every household member could sleep under an 

ITN (assuming that each ITN can be used by two persons). Pregnant women are particularly susceptible to 

malaria and thus the use of ITNs is particularly important for women of reproductive age. Current 

recommendations for IPTp are for pregnant women in high and medium transmission settings in malaria 

endemic countries of Africa to receive a dose of SP at each ANC visit, at least one month apart, starting in 

the second trimester of pregnancy (WHO 2012). However, during the study period the recommendation 

was for all pregnant women in areas of stable (high) malaria transmission to receive at least two doses of 

IPTp after the first noted movement of the fetus (WHO 2007). 
7 

2. Data and Methods 

2.1. Data 

This study used data from DHS surveys in 22 of the 24 USAID MCH priority countries. These are nationally 

representative, population-based household surveys that monitor demographic trends, reproductive health 

behaviors, attitudes, and outcomes, and socio-demographic characteristics of women and men of 

reproductive age. All surveys include full histories of the live births of the interviewed women. The data 

are collected in face-to-face household interviews. A standard core questionnaire is included in each survey, 

enabling comparisons across countries and over time. 

Table 2 lists the USAID priority countries alongside DHS survey availability. For 18 countries—

Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Nepal, 

Nigeria, Pakistan, Rwanda, Senegal, mainland Tanzania2

, Uganda, and Zambia—two DHS surveys are 

available roughly around the years 2000 and 2010, with approximately 10 years between surveys. Baseline 

surveys conducted between 1997 and 2003 were eligible for inclusion, and endline surveys conducted 

between 2007 and 2013 were eligible3

. For four additional countries—Democratic Republic of Congo, 

Liberia, Mali, and Yemen—just one eligible DHS survey was available as of June 2014. 

The study population is restricted to women’s most recent live birth that occurred during the five years4

preceding each survey (1-59 months preceding the month of interview). While five-year neonatal mortality 

rates are typically calculated among live births that occurred 1-60 months preceding the interview, maternal 

and delivery care indicators are not available for the 60th month preceding the interview, so month 60 is not 

included in the study. The restriction to women’s most recent birth was made because several of the 

maternal and delivery care indicators are available only for this subsample of births. 

 

2

 Zanzibar is excluded from the analysis, as the context of maternal and newborn health is distinct from mainland 

Tanzania. 

3

 Two exceptions were made: in India and Pakistan, where two surveys were available with closer spacing, both 

surveys were included in the study. 

4

 For two surveys (India 1998/9 and Madagascar 1997), birth care information is available only for children born in 

the three years prior to interview, so in these two cases the sample is restricted to most recent children born in months 

1-35 prior to interview.
8 

Table 2. USAID priority countries for maternal and child health and DHS survey availability 

 Baseline survey Endline survey 

Afghanistan 

Bangladesh 1999/2000 DHS 2011 DHS 

DR Congo 2007 DHS 

Ethiopia 2000 DHS 2011 DHS 

Ghana 1998 DHS 2008 DHS 

Haiti 2000 DHS 2012 DHS 

India 1998/1999 DHS 2005/2006 DHS 

Indonesia 2002/2003 DHS 2012 DHS 

Kenya 1998 DHS 2008/2009 DHS 

Liberia 2007 DHS 

Madagascar 1997 DHS 2008/2009 DHS 

Malawi 2000 DHS 2010 DHS 

Mali 2001 DHS 

Mozambique 2003 DHS 2011 DHS 

Nepal 2001 DHS 2011 DHS 

Nigeria 2003 DHS 2013 DHS 

Pakistan 2006/2007 DHS 2012/2013 DHS 

Rwanda 2000 DHS 2010 DHS 

Senegal 1997 DHS 2010/2011 DHS 

South Sudan 

Tanzania 1999 DHS 2010 DHS 

Uganda 2000/2001 DHS 2011 DHS 

Yemen 1997 DHS 

Zambia 2001/2002 DHS 2007 DHS 

Note: We have no data for Afghanistan or South Sudan, as of June 2014. While the 2010 Afghanistan Mortality 

Survey included a full birth history, recode files are not available. 

2.2.Definitions of Indicators 

The key outcome examined in this report, neonatal death, is defined as a death that occurred in the first 

month of life (days 0-29). The study examines the impact of eight indicators of maternal and delivery care 

within the broader context of known determinants of neonatal mortality, including socio-demographic 

characteristics of the household, mother, and child. Household-level indicators are expected to impact 

mothers’ access to health care, access to economic resources, and access to social and familial support, and 

could also capture geographic variation in the quality of available services. Characteristics of the mother 

and the child primarily identify higher-risk pregnancies and births. The variables are coded such that the 

reference category is the value that is expected to be optimal for child survival, and any other value is 

expected to be disadvantageous. The variables are described in more detail below. 

Indicators of maternal and delivery care: 

Mother attended four or more ANC visits. This indicator distinguishes children whose mothers made 

fewer than four ANC visits from children whose mothers made four or more visits to any provider. 

Recommended ANC care is expected to reduce a newborn’s risk of mortality. An estimated 4 to 7 percent 

of neonatal deaths could be averted if routine antenatal care—including routine ANC visits, tetanus 

immunization, screening and treatment of syphilis, and IPTp where appropriate—was implemented at high 
9 

(90 percent) coverage (Darmstadt et al. 2008). Children whose mothers made four or more visits are 

expected to have a lower risk of mortality and are the reference category. Note, however, that difficult 

pregnancies may lead to more ANC visits, so some of the women in the reference category may actually 

have high risk. 

Number of tetanus injections during pregnancy. This indicator is grouped into three categories: women 

who received no tetanus toxoid vaccination injections, women who received one injection, and women who 

received two or more injections during the pregnancy for the most recent birth. Neonatal mortality is 

expected to be inversely associated with the number of tetanus injections the mother received. Children 

whose mothers had two or more injections are the reference category. 

Mother received at least 90 days of iron and folic acid supplementation. Children whose mothers 

reported taking at least 90 days of iron and folic acid tablets/syrup during the pregnancy are distinguished 

from children whose mothers reported taking fewer than 90 days’ worth, or no doses. Iron and folic acid 

supplementation during pregnancy has been shown to have a strong protective effect against early neonatal 

death (Titaley et al. 2010). Children whose mothers reported taking at least 90 days of iron/folic acid tablets 

or syrup are the reference category. 

Delivered by a skilled birth attendant. Children whose births were attended by a skilled attendant are 

distinguished from those whose birth was not. The definition of skilled attendance varied across surveys in 

order to align with country-specific skilled care options and country-specific recommendations for delivery 

care; definitions used in this report agree with those in the DHS final country reports. Since detailed 

information about the quality and content of delivery care is unavailable in the DHS, delivery by a skilled 

birth attendant is interpreted as an imperfect proxy for the full package of appropriate care received during 

labor and childbirth, including skilled care at birth, basic and comprehensive obstetric care, management 

of preterm births with antenatal corticosteroids, and essential newborn care. Children whose births were 

attended by a skilled attendant are expected to have a lower risk of neonatal mortality, and comprise the 

reference category. 

Delivered in a health facility. Children who were delivered in any public or private health facility are 

distinguished from with those who were not. While women’s use of a skilled birth attendant and delivery 

in a facility most often occur together, use of a skilled birth attendant can occur at home, and delivery in a 

facility can take place without assistance from a skilled provider. Results for both indicators are presented, 

in order to identify any difference in effects. Children delivered in a health facility are expected to have a 

lower risk of neonatal mortality, and are the reference category.

Community-level coverage of skilled birth attendance: The proportion of women in each DHS cluster 

whose most recent birth was attended by a skilled birth attendant (SBA) is interpreted as a proxy for 

women’s access to skilled assistance during birth. The measure, ranging from 0 to 1, is expected to be 

inversely associated with neonatal mortality, and is included as a continuous variable in regression models 

predicting neonatal death. 

Household owns a mosquito bednet. The indictor of household mosquito bednet ownership identifies 

households that own at least one mosquito bednet of any type at the time of interview. Although longlasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) are now the standard mosquito bednet commodity purchased and 

distributed by National Malaria Control Programs, this was not the case in 2000. For comparability across 

surveys, the analyses are restricted to looking at the potential protective effects of any mosquito bednets, 

whether treated with insecticides or not. Furthermore, while we are interested in the mother’s use of a 

mosquito bednet during pregnancy—when it would be helpful to prevent malaria-associated neonatal 

death—this information is not available. Instead, we use ownership of a mosquito bednet at the time of 

interview as a proxy for ownership and use during the pregnancy. Children born into households that own 
10 

a mosquito bednet are expected to have a lower risk of neonatal mortality, and are the reference category. 

This variable is available in four of the study’s focus countries where malaria is endemic: Madagascar, 

Malawi, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania. 

Mother received two doses of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) during pregnancy. This indicator 

identifies children whose mothers received at least two doses of SP during the pregnancy. Children whose 

mothers received two doses of SP are expected to have a lower risk of neonatal mortality, and are the 

reference category. This indicator is available in Malawi (2000 DHS and 2010 DHS), Madagascar (1997 

DHS), and mainland Tanzania (2010 DHS). Since Rwanda discontinued its IPTp policy in 2008 and the 

information was not collected in the 2010 survey, we cannot examine this indicator in Rwanda. 

Characteristics of the household:

Place of residence. This variable measures whether the household in which the child resides is in an urban 

or rural location. The DHS uses the prevailing definitions of urban and rural residence in each country. 

Children in urban locations are generally expected to have better access to interventions and care and 

reduced exposure to some infections. However, the benefits of urban residence are expected to depend on 

the economic resources of the household and community. Children in urban slums, for example, are 

particularly vulnerable during the neonatal period, due to overcrowding, unhygienic surroundings, poverty, 

and the absence of basic health infrastructure (Fernandez et al. 2003). 

Comparative household wealth. Similar to the original DHS wealth index, the recently developed 

comparative wealth index (CWI) is based on household-level data on assets, services, and amenities, and 

ranks households according to their level of wealth. However, the CWI uses a fixed reference point, 

enabling comparisons across time and across countries (Rutstein and Staveteig 2014). The study population 

was classified by CWI tercile (thirds) for these analyses. The CWI terciles were identified using standard 

cut points derived from the distribution of wealth scores in the 2002 Vietnam DHS. The upper two-thirds 

were combined for the regression analysis, due to a small number of deaths in the wealthiest third. 

Furthermore, for the regression analysis we include the interaction between place of residence and 

comparative household wealth, since the effect of urban residence may well depend on the household’s 

wealth, and vice versa. The interaction variable has four levels: urban upper two-thirds CWI, urban bottomthird CWI, rural upper two-thirds CWI, and rural bottom-third CWI. It is expected that children born in 

urban wealthier households have the lowest risk of neonatal death, and these children are used as the 

reference category. 

Malaria risk. For Madagascar, Malawi, and mainland Tanzania, we were able to link spatial data on the 

level of malaria risk with DHS data using cluster-level GPS locations. These spatial malaria risk data, 

compiled by the Malaria Atlas Project, rely on the estimated proportion of children age 2-10 in the general 

population who are infected with P. falciparum at any one time (PfPR2-10), averaged over the 12 months of 

2010, as well as environmental covariates which help predict more accurately (Malaria Atlas Project). The 

indicator calculated with these data has three levels: no/low, intermediate, and high risk. In low-risk areas, 

the PfPR2-10 is likely to be lower than 5 percent. In intermediate-risk areas, PfPR2-10 is likely to be between 

5 percent and 40 percent. In high-risk areas, PfPR2-10 is likely to exceed 40 percent. Including this indicator 

of malaria risk in the analysis is important, due to potential variations in levels of use of malaria 

interventions by transmission as well as potential variations in the protective efficacy of the interventions 

based on level of transmission. Note that in Malawi the population falls completely in areas classified as 

having intermediate and high risk for malaria. In Madagascar, due to the small number of cases in the 

no/low-risk category in the 2008 survey, no/low risk was collapsed with intermediate risk. 

Caste. For India, the multivariate analyses adjust for the mother’s self-reported caste. The scheduled castes 

and scheduled tribes are historically disadvantaged groups in India. This indicator has four categories: 
11 

scheduled caste, scheduled tribe, other backward caste, and none of these. Children whose mothers reported 

being in none of these groups are the reference category. 

Characteristics of the mother: 

Mother’s age at child’s birth is divided into three categories: under age 18, 18-34, and 35 or older. 

Mother’s age is expected to have a U-shaped relationship with the risk of neonatal death, such that children 

born to women of younger and older ages are at elevated risk. Age 18-34 is the reference category. 

Mother’s marital status is divided into two categories: currently married or in union and not currently 

married or in union. This information refers to women’s status at the time of interview, as a proxy for 

marital status at the time of the child’s birth. Children whose mothers are not currently married are expected 

to have an elevated risk of neonatal mortality. Married women are the reference category. Marital status 

was not included in the analyses for Bangladesh or India, as the samples were restricted to ever-married 

women. 

Mother’s educational attainment is grouped into three categories: no education, primary education, and 

secondary or higher education. Women’s education is expected to be inversely associated with the risk of 

neonatal death. Women with secondary or higher education are the reference category. 

Previous child to mother died under age 5. To adjust for other possible maternal and household 

characteristics that cannot be measured, including genetic risk, an indicator was created to identify mothers 

who had previously lost another child under age 5. Children whose mothers had not had any previous child 

deaths under age 5 are the reference category. 

Characteristics of the child: 

Sex of child. Male or female. Female is the reference category. 

Preceding birth interval. Birth intervals are grouped into three categories: intervals of less than 24 months, 

24-35 months, and 36 or more months. The preceding birth interval is expected to have a U-shaped 

relationship with neonatal mortality, such that births with either short or long preceding intervals are at 

elevated risk. Since first births do not have a preceding birth interval, they are included as a separate, fourth 

category in the regression analysis. The optimal birth interval, 24-35 months, is the reference category. 

Birth order. This indicator is grouped into four categories: first births, second births, third births, and 

fourth or higher-order births. This variable is a count of all live births the mother had before the index child 

rather than a count of all pregnancies, since the standard DHS does not include a full pregnancy history. 

Birth order is expected to have a U-shaped association with neonatal mortality, such that first births and 

high-order births have increased risk of death during the neonatal period. For the multivariate analysis, first 

births and second-order births are combined into a single category, because the model also includes 

preceding birth interval, which has a separate category for first births. First and second births are the 

reference category. 

Multiple birth. Whether the birth was single or multiple. Multiple births are known to have a higher risk 

of neonatal death. Single births are the reference category. 

Several other indicators of maternal and delivery care were considered for inclusion, but are not shown in 

final models. These include caesarian versus vaginal delivery, early initiation of breastfeeding, and a 

postnatal care visit for the child within two days of birth. Since we cannot determine whether the caesarian 

section was medically necessary and are unable to identify pregnancy and/or delivery complications, the 
12 

indicator is difficult to interpret and is not included. Despite a strong association with neonatal mortality, 

early initiation of breastfeeding is not included because of issues with reverse causality. Since newborns 

with life threatening conditions may not be put to the breast or may be unable to breastfeed, the observed 

association is difficult to interpret. Despite its relevance for neonatal survival, postnatal care is not included 

in the analysis because information about whether the child had a postnatal visit is not available for both 

surveys in any country. 

The analysis does not examine the mother’s HIV status or use of prevention of mother-to-child transmission 

of HIV (PMTCT) services during pregnancy for HIV-positive women. There is some evidence to suggest 

that women’s HIV status has greater impact on child survival after the neonatal period. Naniche and 

colleagues (2009) found that infant mortality was 2.3 times higher among children born to HIV-positive 

women compared with children born to HIV-negative women; the difference in mortality was significant 

during the post-neonatal period but not during the early neonatal or neonatal periods. Using DHS data from 

26 surveys in 15 countries, Fishel (2014) found that the neonatal mortality rate was less likely to be 

associated with the HIV status of the mother than post-neonatal, infant, child and under-five mortality rates. 

Note that HIV status was measured at the time of interview, and births preceded the interview (Fishel et al. 

2014). 

Several additional socio-demographic controls were also considered but ultimately excluded from analyses. 

The multivariate analysis did not adjust for child’s size at birth because low birth weight is a key pathway 

through which we would expect several of the components of maternal care (particularly the mother’s 

protection against malaria, tetanus vaccination, and other components of antenatal care) to result in lower 

levels of neonatal mortality. Mother’s nutritional status (BMI and short stature) was not included, as 

anthropometry was collected only in a subsample of respondents in several surveys, and not at all in the 

Tanzania 1999 DHS. The wantedness of the child was explored as a potential predictor of NMR, but results 

are not shown because this variable was not associated with the probability of neonatal death in any country 

in the adjusted models. 

2.3.Analysis 

First, overall trends in neonatal mortality were calculated for the 18 USAID priority countries for which 

baseline and endline surveys were available. Trends in neonatal mortality were calculated first among all 

children born in the five years preceding each survey, and second, among the study population of most 

recent children born in the five years preceding the survey. Log probability models were used to estimate 

the probability of dying in the first month of life, and a two-tailed z-test was used to test the significance of 

the reduction in neonatal mortality observed between the two surveys in each country.5

 Next, the analysis 

turned to focus on the six countries identified with significant improvements in neonatal mortality in the 

study population. To test the association between key indicators of maternal and delivery care and neonatal 

mortality in these countries, multivariate versions of the log probability model were used to determine 

whether these key indicators were associated with neonatal mortality after adjusting for socio-demographic 

factors that could confound the association. In order to examine the extent to which the scale-up of coverage 

of components of maternal and delivery care is associated with observed neonatal mortality reductions in 

the six countries, multivariate decomposition procedures were used. 

 

5

 The model agrees exactly with the CSPRO software normally used to calculate neonatal mortality rates, along with 

all the other standard under-five mortality rates, and follows the standard DHS mortality estimation protocol (Rutstein 

& Rojas 2006), but has several advantages. Because it falls within the framework of generalized linear models (with 

binomial error and log link), it can easily incorporate information on sample weights, survey stratification, and 

clustering of households, and it easily produces standard errors, confidence intervals, and test statistics. This model 

was first applied to DHS data in a study of child mortality in West Africa (Balk et al. 2004). 
13 

Multivariate decomposition analyzes differences in the outcome between two groups or, as in this case, 

between two points of time. In Equation 1, this difference is represented by YA − YB. This study used the 

mvdcmp procedure in Stata, which is comparable to the Oaxaca-Binder Method but with the flexibility to 

use non-linear models. The decomposition procedure divides the total decline in neonatal mortality into 

two portions: the portion that can be attributed to the change in the prevalence of a set of indicators (referred 

to as the endowments portion, and represented by XA and XB in Equation 1), and the portion that can be 

attributed to the change in the effect of these indicators (referred to as the coefficients portion, and 

represented by βA and βB in Equation 1) (Powers et al. 2011). 

Equation 1: 

Y A −Y B = F(XAβA) −F(XB βB ) 

= F(XAβA) −F(XB βA) + F(XB βA) −F(XB βB ) 

 

 Endowments Coefficients 

The decomposition procedure relies on two key pieces of information: the prevalence of all selected 

indicators at both points in time, and the coefficients derived from multivariate regression models predicting 

neonatal death run separately at each time point. In the decomposition model we include the same set of 

variables that are included in the final multivariate log probability model, but due to constraints of the 

mvdcmp procedure the decomposition model uses a Poisson model that closely approximates the log 

probability model. The mvdcmp procedure assumes additivity of the components for composition and effect 

(Powers et al. 2011). Six decompositions were performed, to examine the decline in neonatal mortality 

between the two surveys separately in each country. Stata 12 was used to make all calculations. 

2.4.Study Limitations 

Several limitations to the study are worth noting. While we would like to know which interventions actually 

led to a reduction in neonatal mortality, the DHS is a cross-sectional survey and thus we are limited in our 

ability to make inferences regarding cause and effect. 

In addition, the DHS collects information from respondents about past events, behaviors, and outcomes. 

Such information—for example, concerning women’s use of maternal care services—is subject to recall 

bias. Recall bias may be particularly relevant to this study, as the death of a child could impact the mother’s 

recollection of care received. Differential recall bias could potentially confound the observed relationships 

between maternal care and neonatal death. For several indicators of interest, there is an issue regarding the 

timing of measurement; while we are interested in assessing characteristics at the time of the mother’s 

pregnancy and at the birth of the child, certain variables are only measured at the time of interview. For 

example, educational attainment and all household characteristics are measured at the time of the interview 

rather than during the pregnancy. Perhaps most problematically, to assess the mother’s mosquito bednet 

use during pregnancy, we use the household’s ownership of a mosquito bednet at the time of interview as 

a proxy, with the understanding that the findings must be interpreted cautiously. 

While we would like to include the essential interventions for newborn survival as laid out in the Every 

Newborn Action Plan, we are limited in our ability to do so. Beyond place of delivery and whether the 

delivery was assisted by a skilled birth attendant (as defined by the attendant’s occupation, rather than any 

measurement of actual training or skill), we do not have information about the content or quality of care 

received during labor or delivery. Because of revisions to the DHS questionnaires and definitions of some 
14 

variables between 2000 and 2010, it was also not possible to assess the effect of either the mother’s or 

child’s exposure to postnatal care. 

It is also important to remember that the analysis is restricted to a woman’s most recent child born in the 

five years preceding the survey, rather than all children born in the five years preceding the survey, because 

several important indicators of maternal and delivery care are available only for this subgroup. The 

limitation to the most recent child tends to bias the sample toward women who had only one birth in the 

five-year interval, and such women tend to be better educated, have longer birth intervals, etc. As a result, 

the NMR is somewhat lower for the most recent birth than for all births. Figure 3 shows that, if we take 

Rwanda as an example, there is a substantial difference in neonatal mortality rates calculated for all births 

or for the most recent births in the last five years. Therefore, under a restriction to the most recent birth, 

interest should focus on changes and differences and not on the level of the NMR, because the estimates of 

the NMR are biased. The estimates of changes and differences may also be somewhat biased under this 

restriction, relative to what would be possible if data on the interventions were available for all births, but 

to a smaller degree. For the sake of completeness, a table is included in the appendix showing, among all 

children born in the five years preceding the survey, the effects of the three intervention variables that are 

available for all children (see Appendix Table A1). 

Figure 3. Neonatal mortality rate among most recent births, previous births, and all births in the five 

years preceding the survey, Rwanda 2000 and 2010 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 RDHS 2010 RDHS

Most Recent Birth

Previous Births

All Births
15 

Finally, it is important to bear in mind that the analysis is restricted to live births. Alongside the 2.9 million 

babies who die each year in the first month of life, worldwide, an estimated 2.6 million babies are stillborn 

(die in the last three months of pregnancy or during childbirth) (WHO 2014). Since the standard DHS 

survey collects a complete listing of women’s live births only6

, it was not possible to include stillborn 

children in the study. 

 

6

 In some countries such as Nepal, surveys have collected information on women’s full pregnancy history, which 

would include information on stillborn children, but this information is not available for all study countries. Stillbirths 

can also be identified in the DHS contraceptive calendar, but we have no information about the care women received 

during the pregnancy ending in a stillbirth, so any analysis using these children would be limited. 

17 

3. Results 

Before turning to focus on countries with observed reductions in neonatal mortality, we provide an 

overview of recent trends in neonatal mortality in all USAID MCH priority countries with available DHS 

data. Table 3 shows the trend in neonatal mortality in these countries, among all births and within the study 

population of most recent children born in the five years preceding the survey. Of the USAID priority 

countries with available data, neonatal mortality is highest at baseline in Mali and Pakistan, where 57 and 

54 children, respectively, die during the first month for every 1,000 live births, among all children born in 

the five years preceding the baseline surveys. Among endline surveys, neonatal mortality remains highest 

in Pakistan, where 55 children die during the first month for every 1,000 live births, among all children 

born in the five years preceding the endline survey. Neonatal mortality is lowest at endline in Indonesia, 

where according to the 2012 Indonesia DHS, 19 children die during the first month for every 1,000 live 

births, among all children born in the five years preceding the survey. 

Of the 18 USAID priority countries with baseline and endline surveys available, nine had a statistically 

significant reduction in neonatal mortality between the surveys, among all children born in the five years 

before the survey. Eight of the nine countries—Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Nigeria, 

Rwanda, Senegal, and mainland Tanzania—experienced reductions of at least 10 deaths per 1,000 live 

births. In India the reduction was smaller, at four deaths per 1,000 live births. It should be noted that while 

we aimed to use surveys with 10 years between them, due to the timing of DHS surveys, in India, Pakistan, 

and Zambia the spacing between their surveys is only 5-7 years. The relatively small reduction in India is 

statistically significant because of the very large size of the India surveys. 

After restricting to the study population of most recent children born, the reduction in neonatal mortality 

remained significant in six of the nine countries for which the reduction is significant among all births—

Bangladesh, India, Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania. Figure 4 identifies the 18 

countries with two surveys available, the nine countries with significant reductions, and the study’s six 

focus countries. 

Figure 4. Reductions in neonatal mortality among USAID priority countries for maternal and child 

health 
Table 3. Trend in neonatal mortality rate among children born in the five years preceding the survey, USAID MCH priority countries 

All children born in the five years preceding the 

survey 

Most recent children born in the five years preceding 

the survey 

 Baseline Endline 

Difference 

 Baseline Endline 

Difference NMR LB UB NMR LB UB NMR LB UB NMR LB UB 

Bangladesh (1999/2000, 2011) 41.8 36.8 47.6 32.0 28.0 36.5 9.8 ** 24.7 20.2 30.4 16.5 13.6 20.2 8.2 ** Ethiopia (2000, 2011) 48.5 42.4 55.6 37.5 32.6 43.1 11.1 ** 30.7 24.8 37.9 26.1 21.1 32.2 4.6 

DR Congo (2007) 41.9 35.1 50.1 23.3 18.3 29.5 

Ghana (1998, 2008) 29.6 23.4 37.4 30.0 23.9 37.8 -0.5 16.2 11.6 22.5 18.6 13.1 26.5 -2.5 Haiti (2000, 2012) 32.2 26.5 39.2 30.7 26.4 35.8 1.5 20.0 14.7 27.0 23.0 18.7 28.2 -3.0 India (1998/9, 2005/6) 43.3 41.2 45.5 38.9 36.8 41.2 4.4 ** 28.5 26.6 30.6 24.9 22.9 27.1 3.6 * 

Indonesia (2002/3, 2012) 19.6 16.3 23.6 19.0 16.1 22.4 0.6 13.2 10.4 16.9 10.3 8.4 12.7 2.9 

Kenya (1998, 2008/9) 28.2 22.9 34.7 31.0 24.5 39.2 -2.8 19.2 14.8 25.0 22.7 16.8 30.7 -3.5 Liberia (2007) 31.8 26.5 38.2 20.4 15.7 26.6 

Madagascar (1997, 2008/9) 40.2 34.2 47.3 24.2 20.7 28.2 16.1 *** 31.7 25.5 39.3 17.3 13.9 21.5 14.3 *** 

Malawi (2000, 2010) 41.7 37.1 46.8 31.4 28.1 35.0 10.3 *** 25.9 22.2 30.3 20.0 16.9 23.7 5.9 * 

Mali (2001) 57.2 51.3 63.8 40.7 35.3 46.9 

Mozambique (2003, 2011) 36.9 32.0 42.7 30.6 26.6 35.3 6.3 25.6 21.2 30.9 24.0 20.2 28.7 1.6 

Nepal (2001, 2011) 38.5 32.9 45.0 33.0 27.0 40.2 5.5 23.4 18.8 29.0 18.4 13.4 25.3 5.0 Nigeria (2003, 2013) 47.9 41.5 55.3 37.4 34.6 40.4 10.5 ** 31.9 25.7 39.7 27.5 25.0 30.2 4.5 

Pakistan (2006/7, 2012/13) 53.8 48.0 60.3 55.3 48.8 62.7 -1.6 46.5 39.8 54.4 42.0 36.2 48.7 4.6 Rwanda (2000, 2010) 43.7 38.5 49.5 27.1 23.6 31.2 16.5 *** 29.4 24.7 35.1 14.1 11.4 17.5 15.3 *** 

Senegal (1997, 2010/11) 37.8 32.9 43.5 28.8 25.0 33.1 9.1 ** 26.0 21.6 31.3 22.7 18.9 27.3 3.3 Tanzania (1999, 2010) 40.4 31.8 51.3 25.8 21.5 31.0 14.6 ** 31.5 23.3 42.5 17.7 14.0 22.3 13.8 ** Uganda (2000/1, 2011) 32.8 28.0 38.5 27.0 22.7 32.2 5.8 21.0 16.7 26.4 19.1 15.0 24.4 1.9 Yemen (1997) 33.9 30.2 38.0 28.0 24.0 32.6 Zambia (20001/2, 2007) 37.0 32.0 42.8 34.5 29.6 40.3 2.5 24.7 20.3 30.1 25.5 21.0 31.0 -0.8 Note: * indicates p<.05; ** indicates p<.01;*** indicates p<.001. Rates presented for all births may not match rates presented in DHS final reports, as the study 

uses children born in months 1-59 preceding the interview rather than months 1-60 preceding the interview. 

18 
19 

Figures 5a-r highlight the trend in neonatal mortality against trends in select indicators of maternal and 

delivery care, among most recent children born in the five years preceding the survey, for the 18 USAID 

MCH priority countries with baseline and endline surveys available. Figures 5a-i show the nine countries 

identified in Table 3 with significant reductions in NMR among all children born in the five years preceding 

the survey, and Figures 5j-r show the nine countries with no observed change in NMR. Generally speaking, 

the countries with significant reductions appear to have had somewhat more rapid scale-up of measurable 

interventions. However, the correspondence between scale-up of interventions and the movement of 

neonatal mortality is not uniform. For example, in Nepal (where there was no significant change in NMR) 

we observe rapid scale-up of all measurable maternal and delivery care interventions, while in Madagascar 

(where there was a substantial reduction in NMR), we observe virtually no scale-up of measurable maternal 

and delivery care interventions. 

Figures 5a-i. Trends in maternal and delivery care and neonatal mortality, separately by country, 

USAID MCH priority countries with significant improvements in NMR 

(Continued...) 

0.0

5.0

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35.0

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NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

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tetanus injections

Delivered in a

health facility

Skilled Birth

Attendant

NMR

a. Bangladesh

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 2000 Ethiopia DHS 2011 Ethiopia DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

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tetanus injections

Delivered in a

health facility

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Attendant

NMR

b. Ethiopia
20 

Figure 5a-i. – Continued

(Continued...) 

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Attendant

Delivered in a

health facility

Mother had 90+

days of iron tablets

NMR

c. India

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1997 Madagascar DHS 2008 Madagascar DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Delivered in a

health facility

Skilled Birth

Attendant

NMR

d. Madgascar

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 Malawi DHS 2010 Malawi DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Delivered in a

health facility

Mother had 90+

days of iron tablets

HH owns a bednet

Mother had two

doses SP

Skilled Birth

Attendant

NMR

e. Malawi
21 

Figure 5a-i. – Continued

(Continued...) 

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2003 Nigeria DHS 2013 Nigeria DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received tetanus

injections

Skilled Birth Attendant

Delivered in a health

facility

Mother had 90+ days of

iron tablets

HH owns a bednet

Mother received 2 doses

SP during pregnancy

NMR

f. Nigeria

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 Rwanda DHS 2010 Rwanda DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Delivered in a

health facility

Mother had 90+

days of iron tablets

HH owns a bednet

Skilled Birth

Attendant

NMR

g. Rwanda

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1997 Senegal DHS 2010 Senegal DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Delivered in a

health facility

Skilled Birth

Attendant

NMR

h. Senegal
22 

Figure 5a-i. – Continued 

Figures 5j-r. Trends in maternal and delivery care and neonatal mortality, separately by country, 

USAID MCH priority countries with no significant improvement in NMR between surveys 

(Continued...) 

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1999 Mainland Tanzania DHS 2010 Mainland Tanzania DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Delivered in a

health facility

Mother received

IPTp

Skilled Birth

Attendant

NMR

i. Mainland Tanzania

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1998 Ghana DHS 2008 Ghana DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Skilled Birth

Attendant

Delivered in a

health facility

NMR

j. Ghana
23 

Figure 5j-r. – Continued

(Continued...) 

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 Haiti DHS 2012 Haiti DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Skilled Birth

Attendant

Delivered in a

health facility

NMR

k. Haiti

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2002 Indonesia DHS 2012 Indonesia DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Skilled Birth

Attendant

Delivered in a

health facility

Mother had 90+

days of iron tablets

NMR

l. Indonesia

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1998 Kenya DHS 2008 Kenya DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Skilled Birth

Attendant

Delivered in a

health facility

NMR

m. Kenya
24 

Figure 5j-r. – Continued

(Continued...) 

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2003 MozambiqueDHS 2011 Mozambique DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Skilled Birth

Attendant

Delivered in a

health facility

Mother had 90+

days of iron tablets

NMR

n. Mozambique

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001 Nepal DHS 2011 Nepal DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Delivered in a

health facility

Mother had 90+

days of iron tablets

Skilled Birth

Attendant

NMR

o. Nepal

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2006 Pakistan DHS 2012 Pakisatan DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Delivered in a

health facility

Mother had 90+

days of iron tablets

Skilled Birth

Attendant

NMR

p. Pakistan
25 

Figure 5j-r. – Continued

3.1.Trends in Coverage of Maternal and Delivery Care and Socio-Demographic Characteristics 

We now focus on the six countries with significant observed reductions in NMR among most recent 

children born in the five years preceding the survey. Table 4 presents trends in coverage of maternal and 

delivery care interventions, as well as trends in socio-demographic characteristics of the household, mother, 

and child, among most recent children born in the five years preceding each survey in Bangladesh, India, 

Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania. 

Trends in coverage of maternal and delivery care: 

Antenatal care is an essential gateway into maternal care services, and provides an opportunity to identify 

and treat pregnancy-related problems. As Figure 6 shows, the percentage of women who had at least four 

antenatal care visits from any provider for the most recent birth (which of course tells us only that contacts 

occurred, not what happened during them) increased between the two surveys in four of the six focus 

countries. In Bangladesh the percentage doubled from 11 percent at baseline to 24 percent at endline, and 

in Rwanda the percentage tripled from 10 to 36 percent. By contrast, in two countries there was a decline 

in the percentage of women with at least four ANC visits, from 57 to 46 percent in Malawi, and from 71 to 

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000/2001 Uganda DHS 2011 Uganda DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Delivered in a

health facility

Mother had 90+

days of iron tablets

HH owns a bednet

Skilled Birth

Attendant

NMR

q. Uganda

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001/2 Zambia DHS 2007 Zambia DHS

NMR (Deahts per 1,000 live births)

Intervention Coverage (%)

4+ ANC visits

Mother received

tetanus injections

Skilled Birth

Attendant

Delivered in a

health facility

Mother had 90+

days of iron tablets

HH owns a bednet

NMR

r. Zambia
26 

43 percent in mainland Tanzania. These declines could reflect changes in antenatal care policies and goals 

during this period. Both Malawi and Tanzania adopted the WHO-recommended Focused Antenatal Care 

(FANC) framework during this period, shifting emphasis from the number of antenatal care visits to the 

provision of specific content during those visits (WHO 2002). 

Figure 6. Trend in the mother's use of four or more antenatal care visits during pregnancy, among 

most recent children born in the five years preceding the survey 

 

The provision of neonatal tetanus toxoid (TT) injections is an important component of antenatal care. 

Providing women with two doses of TT during pregnancy can prevent neonatal tetanus, which is nearly 

always fatal. If a woman has been previously vaccinated, one dose of TT during pregnancy is sufficient, 

and if she has already had five or more vaccinations, she will have acquired lifetime protection. Coverage 

of two or more doses of TT during pregnancy increased by roughly 10 percentage points between the two 

surveys in three countries—from 68 to 77 percent in India, from 35 to 48 percent in Madagascar, and from 

62 to 69 percent in Malawi (see Figure 7). According to the endline Rwanda survey, 34 percent of mothers 

received at least two TT vaccinations for their most recent birth, essentially unchanged from the baseline 

survey. However, in Bangladesh and mainland Tanzania the percentage of children whose mother received 

at least two TT vaccinations during the pregnancy declined from over 60 percent to under 50 percent 

between the two surveys7

. 

 

7

 The preferred indicator, “full tetanus protection,” takes into account whether a woman was fully vaccinated against 

tetanus prior to the most recent pregnancy and did not need two additional doses. However, because this indicator 

could not be calculated in the earlier surveys and we are interested in trends, we rely on this less precise measure. 

Values of “full tetanus protection” in our study population, according to the endline survey data were: 91 percent in 

Bangladesh, 77 percent in India, 71 percent in Madagascar, 89 percent in Malawi, 78 percent in Rwanda, and 89 

percent in mainland Tanzania. 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Baseline Endline

Intervention Coverage (%)

Bangladesh

India

Madagascar

Malawi

Rwanda

Mainland Tanzania
27 

Figure 7. Trend in two or more tetanus injections given to the mother during pregnancy, among 

most recent children born in the five years preceding the survey 

Iron and folic acid supplementation during pregnancy has been shown to be protective against neonatal 

mortality (Titaley et al. 2010). Coverage with the recommended 90+ days of iron and folic acid 

supplementation during pregnancy remains low, at under 10 percent according to the endline surveys in 

Madagascar, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania. As Figure 8 shows, coverage in Malawi increased nearly 

threefold between the two surveys, reaching 32 percent at endline, while in India coverage fell from 40 to 

23 percent between the two surveys. 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Baseline Endline

Intervention Coverage (%)

Bangladesh

India

Madagascar

Malawi

Rwanda

Mainland Tanzania
28 

Figure 8. Trend in iron and folic acid supplementation for the mother among most recent children 

born in the five years preceding the survey 

Delivery by a skilled birth attendant is a key recommended strategy for maternal and newborn survival 

(WHO 2014). Scale-up of coverage of skilled clinical care in facilities (including skilled maternal and 

immediate newborn care, emergency obstetric care, and emergency neonatal care) is believed to have the 

potential to avert 21 to 44 percent of global neonatal deaths (Darmstadt et al. 2008). Five of the six countries 

have made impressive gains in “skilled birth attendance”8

 between the two surveys (see Figure 9). In 

Rwanda, the percentage of children delivered by a skilled birth attendant increased most dramatically, from 

26 to 72 percent between baseline and endline. In India, Malawi, and mainland Tanzania, the percentage of 

children delivered by a skilled birth attendant increased from 43 to 50 percent, from 55 to 74 percent, and 

from 47 to 55 percent, respectively, between the two surveys. Use of skilled birth attendants is lowest in 

Bangladesh. Nonetheless, use more than doubled between the two surveys, from 13 to 29 percent. The 

percentage of children delivered by a skilled birth attendant remained unchanged at 47 percent in 

Madagascar. 

 

8

 We use quotation marks since our measure of SBA is based entirely on the occupation of the provider, and does not 

directly measure actual skills. 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Baseline Endline

Intervention Coverage (%)

India

Malawi

Rwanda
29 

Figure 9. Trend in skilled birth attendance among most recent children born in the five years 

preceding the survey 

In most settings, skilled birth attendance corresponds closely with the place of delivery. In Malawi, Rwanda, 

and mainland Tanzania, the prevalence of deliveries in a facility closely follows the prevalence of skilled 

birth attendance. However, in Bangladesh, India, and Madagascar, skilled birth attendance for home births 

is more common, and coverage of facility delivery is lower than SBA coverage. For example, according to 

the endline Madagascar survey, 38 percent of most recent children were born in a facility, and 47 percent 

were born with assistance from a skilled attendant. 

In many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, malaria during pregnancy is an important cause of low birth 

weight and is thus a major cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality (Guyatt and Snow 2001). In three of 

the four sub-Saharan African study countries, we were able to incorporate cluster-level spatial data on the 

level of malaria risk. This information, compiled by the Malaria Atlas Project, relies on the estimated 

proportion of children age 2-10 in the general population who are infected with P. falciparum at any one 

time, averaged over the 12 months of 2010, as well as environmental covariates which help predict more 

accurately (Malaria Atlas Project). The distribution of children across levels of malaria risk did not change 

substantially in Malawi, mainland Tanzania, or Madagascar between the two surveys. According to the 

recent Madagascar and Malawi surveys, over half of most recent children were born in areas of intermediate 

risk (i.e. areas where PfPR2-10 is likely to be between 5 and 40 percent), while over 40 percent of children 

were born in high-transmission areas (i.e. areas where PfPR2-10 is likely to be >40 percent). In mainland 

Tanzania, 68 percent of children were born in areas of intermediate transmission, 11 percent in hightransmission areas, and the remaining 21 percent in areas with low or no risk of transmission. 

The recommended interventions to address malaria in pregnancy are sleeping under insecticide treated nets 

(ITN) and—in high and medium transmission countries in SSA—intermittent presumptive treatment (IPTp) 

with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP). Studies have shown coverage of either IPTp or ITN to be associated 

with an 18 percent reduction in neonatal mortality and a 21 percent reduction in low birth weight among 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Baseline Endline

Intervention Coverage (%)

Bangladesh

India

Madagascar

Malawi

Rwanda

Mainland Tanzania
30 

women in their first or second pregnancies (Eisele et al. 2012). In Malawi, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania, 

the first local ITN campaigns began targeting specific districts or regions in the 1990s. In Malawi, ITNs 

first became available nationwide commercially and at health facilities in 2003, in mainland Tanzania in 

2004, and in Rwanda, in 2005. As Figure 10 shows, all three countries have had dramatic increases in 

mosquito bednet coverage between the baseline and endline surveys, from 14 to 77 percent in Malawi, from 

8 to 93 percent in Rwanda, and from 29 to 89 percent in mainland Tanzania. Mosquito bednet campaigns 

began later in Madagascar; PMI supported the first mass ITN distribution campaign in 2009/2010 

(President’s Malaria Initiative 2014). We could not measure household ownership of a mosquito bednet at 

baseline, but coverage was as high as 68 percent in the endline survey. 

Figure 10. Trend in household ownership of a mosquito bednet among most recent children born 

in the five years preceding the survey 

A widely accepted estimate is that 10 to 30 percent of neonatal deaths could be averted with 90 percent 

coverage of IPTp (Darmstadt et al. 2005). Malawi was one of the first countries in sub-Saharan Africa to 

adopt the policy of giving all pregnant women IPTp with SP in 1993. Madagascar adopted IPTp as a 

national policy in late 2004 in the 93 districts where stable malaria transmission occurs, and Tanzania and 

Rwanda adopted the policy in 2001 and 2005, respectively (Eisele et al. 2012; President’s Malaria Initiative 

2014). However, in 2008 Rwanda discontinued the program due to increased resistance to SP (President’s 

Malaria Initiative 2013). Both Malawi and Tanzania have achieved widespread implementation of the 

policy. In Malawi, the percentage of women who received at least two doses of SP during pregnancy 

increased from 29 to 53 percent. In Tanzania and Madagascar, we can assume that in the baseline survey 

no mothers had received two doses of preventative SP for their most recent birth; by endline this percentage 

was 28 percent in mainland Tanzania, and 6 percent in Madagascar (see Figure 11). 

Figure 11. Trend in the mother's use of two doses of SP during pregnancy among most recent 

children born in the five years preceding the survey 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Baseline Endline

Intervention Coverage (%)

Malawi

Rwanda

Mainland Tanzania
31 

Trends in socio-demographic characteristics: 

Table 4 also presents trends in socio-demographic characteristics of the household, mother, and child. 

Household-level socioeconomic status and urban residence are expected to be positively associated with 

neonatal survival. The comparative wealth index shows that in five of the six countries there was 

improvement in absolute wealth across the decade. The percentage of children born into the poorest third 

of households9

 declined from 79 to 68 percent in Bangladesh, from 94 to 80 percent in Malawi, from 91 to 

80 percent in Rwanda, and from 83 to 73 percent in mainland Tanzania between the baseline and endline 

surveys. Madagascar showed more modest improvements, from 83 to 79 percent, while in India–the 

wealthiest of the six study countries according to the comparative wealth index—the percentage of most 

recent children born into households in the poorest third of households did not decline, but increased from 

45 to 58 percent between the two surveys10. 

Between baseline and endline surveys, the percentage of most recent children born into urban households 

compared with rural households did not increase substantially in Malawi, Rwanda, or mainland Tanzania. 

In Bangladesh and India there was an increase in the percentage of most recent children born into urban 

households—from 17 to 23 percent in Bangladesh and from 22 to 27 percent in India—while in Madagascar 

the percentage of most recent children born into urban households decreased from 20 to 12 percent11. 

 

9

 The bottom comparative wealth third is identified using standard cut points derived from the distribution of wealth 

scores in the 2002 Vietnam DHS survey. 

10 This could be a reflection of differences in sampling between the two surveys rather than a reflection of economic 

change. Regardless, the analysis will adjust for changes in wealth between the two samples of children.

11 This trend could be an artifact of the data, resulting from factors such as changes in criteria for classifying clusters 

as rural or urban. According to World Bank data, the percent of the total population of Madagascar that is rural has 

remained stable between 1999-2003 and 2009-2013 (The World Bank 2014). 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Baseline Endline

Intervention Coverage (%)

Madagascar

Malawi

Mainland Tanzania
32 

Since the benefits of urban residence could depend on the economic status of the household (Matthews et 

al. 2010), we also examine the combination of place of residence and comparative household wealth. The 

contexts of urbanization and poverty are distinct across the six countries. In Bangladesh, the decline in the 

percentage of children born into households in the poorest comparative wealth tercile occurred almost 

entirely in rural areas, while the percentage of children born into urban households in the poorest wealth 

tercile remained constant, at 7 percent. In Malawi, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania, the decline in the 

percentage of children born in households in the poorest comparative wealth tercile was shared between 

urban and rural households. By contrast, in Madagascar the percentage of children born into urban poor 

households decreased from 10 to 2 percent, but the percentage of children born into rural poor households 

increased slightly from 73 to 77 percent. In India, the percentage of children born into both urban and rural 

poor households increased. 

Several characteristics of the mother, including age at the child’s birth, educational attainment, and marital 

status, have been found to be associated with neonatal survival. The percentage of children born to mothers 

in the lowest-risk age range, age 18-34, increased the most in Rwanda, from 69 to 75 percent between 

baseline and endline, with a corresponding decline in the percentage of children born to mothers age 35 or 

older, from 30 to 24 percent. The percentage of children born to young mothers (under age 18) remained 

low in Rwanda, at 1 percent at endline. In Madagascar and mainland Tanzania, there was a slight increase 

in the percentage of children born to mothers age 35 or older, from 17 to 20 percent in Madagascar and 

from 18 to 21 percent in Malawi between surveys. In India, the percentage of children born to young 

mothers (under age 18) decreased from 9 to 6 percent between surveys, with a corresponding increase in 

births to mothers in the optimal age range. 

There have been noteworthy improvements in mothers’ educational attainment in Bangladesh, India, 

Malawi, and Rwanda. In Bangladesh, the percentage of mothers with secondary education or higher 

doubled from 25 to 51 percent between baseline and endline, and in India this percentage increased from 

30 to 39 percent. In Malawi the percentage of mothers with secondary education increased from 8 to 16 

percent, while the percentage with no education fell from 31 to 17 percent between the two surveys. In 

Rwanda the percentage of mothers with primary education increased from 55 percent at baseline to 71 

percent at endline, while the percentage born to mothers with no education fell from 35 to 19 percent. In 

contrast, in Madagascar and mainland Tanzania the educational attainment of mothers remained unchanged 

between the two surveys; in both countries at endline, about one-fourth of mothers had no education, while 

22 percent and 7 percent, respectively, had secondary or higher education. 

According to the endline survey in Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania, the great 

majority of children (over 80 percent) were born to mothers either married or in union, and this percentage 

was similar in the earlier surveys. In Bangladesh and India, the survey samples were restricted to evermarried women, so we did not examine the current marital status of women in these countries. 

Several characteristics of the child affect the risk of neonatal death. Boys, children born after a short interval 

or after a long interval, first births, high-order births, and multiple births have an increased risk of neonatal 

mortality (Rutstein and Winter 2014). The prevalence of these risk factors among children has remained 

little changed across the two surveys in each country. In all countries about half of children are boys. In 

India, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania, the percentage of children born after a short preceding birth interval 

(<24 months) or a long interval (>35 months) remained relatively unchanged. In Bangladesh, Madagascar, 

and Malawi there were modest declines between baseline and endline surveys in the percentage of children 

born after an optimal interval, from 25 to 19 percent in Bangladesh, from 39 to 32 percent in Madagascar, 

and from 37 to 33 percent in Malawi. The distribution of births by birth order was similar between the two 

surveys in India, Madagascar, Malawi, and mainland Tanzania. The percentage of children who were first 

births increased in Bangladesh and Rwanda, from 27 to 34 percent in Bangladesh, and from 17 to 22 percent 
33 

in Rwanda, with corresponding declines in the percentage of children of fourth or higher order. In each 

country 1.5 to 2.5 percent are multiple births. 

In order to control for potential unidentified genetic or household-level risk factors, a measure of whether 

the child’s mother lost another child under age 5 is included in the analysis. In all countries except India 

(where the time period between surveys is shorter), there was a 5 to 10 percentage point reduction in the 

percentage of children whose mothers lost another child under age 5. This reduction reflects the gains in 

child survival during the decade. 
Table 4. Trend in socio-demographic characteristics of the household, mother, and child, and in coverage of recommended maternal and 

delivery care, among women's most recent children born in the five years preceding the survey, USAID MCH priority countries with 

significant reductions in NMR 

Bangladesh India Madagascar Malawi Rwanda 

Tanzania 

(Mainland) 

Baseline End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line 

% % % % % % % % % % % % 

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HOUSEHOLD Place of residence Urban 17.4 23.4 22.2 26.8 20.4 12.4 13.4 15.4 14.7 12.8 22.9 22.8 Rural 82.6 76.6 77.8 73.2 79.6 87.6 86.6 84.6 85.3 87.2 77.1 77.2 Comparative wealth index1 Poorest third 78.6 67.8 44.6 58.2 82.7 78.8 93.9 80.1 91.3 79.9 82.6 72.9 

Middle third 11.2 12.3 24.8 13.8 11.6 9.0 4.2 11.4 4.3 13.3 11.0 13.9 

Richest third 10.1 19.9 30.6 28.1 5.7 12.2 2.0 8.5 4.5 6.8 6.4 13.2 Place of residence and comparative wealth index Urban upper two-thirds CWI 10.1 16.7 20.3 21.4 10.8 10.1 5.2 10.3 7.9 9.0 13.9 18.3 Urban bottom-third CWI 7.3 6.8 1.8 5.4 9.6 2.3 8.2 5.2 6.8 3.8 8.9 4.5 

Rural bottom-third CWI 71.3 61.0 42.8 52.8 73.1 76.5 85.7 74.9 84.5 76.1 73.7 68.4 Rural upper two-thirds CWI 11.3 15.5 35.1 20.4 6.5 11.1 0.9 9.6 0.8 11.2 3.5 8.8 

Malaria risk2

None or low (<5% risk) n/a n/a n/a n/a 7.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 25.2 20.8 Intermediate (5%-40% risk) n/a n/a n/a n/a 52.2 58.1 56.1 56.8 n/a n/a 65.5 68.2 

High (>40% risk) 40.1 41.1 43.9 43.2 9.3 11.0 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MOTHER Mother's age at child's birth <18 years 17.2 14.8 8.9 5.7 9.8 9.7 6.7 6.0 1.6 1.3 6.7 5.6 18-34 years 74.6 78.9 85.4 87.8 73.0 70.1 75.5 77.8 68.7 74.7 75.8 73.4 

35+ years 8.2 6.3 5.7 6.6 17.2 20.3 17.9 16.2 29.7 24.0 17.5 21.0 

34 
(Continued...)

Table 4. – Continued

Bangladesh India Madagascar Malawi Rwanda 

Tanzania 

(Mainland) 

Baseline End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line 

% % % % % % % % % % % % 

Mother's marital status Currently in union n/a n/a n/a n/a 79.5 84.7 87.0 85.5 78.5 82.8 83.5 81.9 Not currently in union n/a n/a n/a n/a 20.5 15.3 13.0 14.5 21.5 17.2 16.5 18.1 

Mother's educational attainment None 45.6 19.3 54.4 47.3 23.4 23.2 30.7 16.6 34.7 18.9 26.6 23.7 

Primary 29.0 30.1 15.4 14.0 55.2 54.6 61.7 67.0 55.2 71.4 70.0 69.7 Secondary or higher 25.4 50.7 30.2 38.7 21.3 22.2 7.6 16.4 10.2 9.7 3.4 6.6 Previous child to mother died under age five years No 75.4 86.0 80.1 82.2 63.8 78.8 60.7 70.8 62.3 73.8 66.7 75.6 

Yes 24.6 14.0 19.9 17.8 36.2 21.2 39.3 29.2 37.7 26.2 33.3 24.4 

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CHILD Sex of child Female 48.4 48.3 47.4 46.1 49.9 49.6 50.3 50.1 49.4 48.4 50.0 49.7 

Male 51.6 51.7 52.6 53.9 50.1 50.4 49.7 49.9 50.6 51.6 50.0 50.3 

Preceding birth interval3 <2 years 16.0 11.1 21.8 24.5 22.2 20.2 16.2 13.7 20.3 18.2 13.8 12.8 

2 years 25.0 19.2 33.0 32.8 38.6 32.4 36.7 32.9 36.0 37.8 38.9 37.4 3+ years 59.0 69.7 45.2 42.7 39.2 47.4 47.1 53.5 43.6 44.0 47.3 49.8 

Birth order First 27.2 33.5 27.4 26.3 21.3 21.4 21.2 18.3 17.1 22.4 22.9 19.2 

Second 25.9 29.7 26.0 28.7 17.8 19.2 18.6 19.0 17.6 19.0 18.0 19.3 Third 17.7 18.0 18.2 17.3 14.1 15.7 15.8 17.3 15.5 15.1 15.1 16.6 

Fourth or higher 29.3 18.8 28.4 27.7 46.8 43.6 44.4 45.4 49.8 43.4 44.0 45.0 Multiple birth Single birth 99.1 99.1 99.3 99.1 99.0 98.9 97.5 97.6 98.6 98.5 98.6 98.4 

35 
Multiple birth 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 2.5 2.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 

(Continued...)

Table 4. – Continued

Bangladesh India Madagascar Malawi Rwanda 

Tanzania 

(Mainland) 

Baseline End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line 

% % % % % % % % % % % % 

RECOMMENDED MATERNAL AND DELIVERY CARE Mother attended 4 or more ANC visits Yes 10.6 23.7 30.1 37.4 40.5 49.9 56.6 45.9 10.4 35.5 71.0 43.1 No 89.4 76.3 69.9 62.6 59.5 50.1 43.4 54.1 89.6 64.5 29.0 56.9 Number of tetanus injections during pregnancy 2+ 64.1 47.7 67.6 77.0 35.0 47.9 61.6 69.4 30.7 34.4 62.0 48.3 1 17.2 22.6 8.4 6.7 14.7 15.0 20.4 18.5 34.7 42.6 21.4 24.7 0 18.7 29.7 24.0 16.3 50.2 37.1 18.0 12.2 34.6 23.0 16.7 27.0 Mother had 90+ days of iron and folic acid supplementation Yes n/a n/a 39.6 23.3 n/a 7.7 11.4 32.3 0.3 1.4 n/a 3.2 No n/a n/a 60.4 76.7 n/a 92.3 88.6 67.7 99.7 98.6 n/a 96.8 Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 13.1 29.2 42.7 49.8 47.7 47.4 54.8 74.1 25.8 72.1 46.5 54.6 No 86.9 70.8 57.3 50.2 52.3 52.6 45.2 25.9 74.2 27.9 53.5 45.4 Delivered in a health facility Yes 9.0 26.3 34.1 41.6 34.3 37.8 56.1 76.2 25.8 71.8 45.7 54.3 No 91.0 73.7 65.9 58.4 65.7 62.2 43.9 23.8 74.2 28.2 54.3 45.7 Household owns a mosquito bednet 

Yes n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 68.4 13.9 77.4 8.1 93.2 29.3 89.1 No n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 31.6 86.1 22.6 91.9 6.8 70.7 10.9 

(Continued...)

36 
Table 4. – Continued

Bangladesh India Madagascar Malawi Rwanda 

Tanzania 

(Mainland) 

Baseline End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line Base- line End- line 

% % % % % % % % % % % % 

Mother received two doses of SP during pregnancy4Yes n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 5.8 29.3 52.9 n/a n/a 0.0 28.4 No n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 94.2 70.7 47.1 n/a n/a 100.0 71.6 

Total N 5,177 7,254 28,313 39,251 3,249 8,569 7,943 13,497 5,062 6,355 2,101 5,316 

Note: Baseline surveys were conducted in 1999/2000 in Bangladesh, 1998/9 in India, 1997 in Madagascar, 2000 in Malawi, 2000 in Rwanda, and 1999 in mainland 

Tanzania. Endline surveys were conducted in 2011 in Bangladesh, 2005/6 in India, 2008/9 in Madagascar, 2010 in Malawi, 2010 in Rwanda, and 2010 in mainland Tanzania. 1 The DHS-constructed comparative wealth index uses a fixed baseline (the 2002 Vietnam DHS) enabling measurement of improvements in wealth over time and 

comparison of absolute wealth across country. 

2 In low risk areas, the annual averaged plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in 2-10 year olds is likely to be lower than 5%. In intermediate risk areas, plasmodium falciparum transmission is likely to be between 5%-40%. In high risk areas, transmission is likely to exceed 40% (Malaria Atlas Project). 3 First births are excluded from the percentages. 4 Coverage of women's use of two doses of SP is assumed to be 0% for the Madagascar and mainland Tanzania surveys, as the policy had not yet been implemented. 

37 
38 

3.2. Multivariate Regression Results 

The factors identified in Table 4 with improved coverage between the two surveys could have contributed 

to the observed declines in neonatal mortality only if they are associated with the probability of neonatal 

death. To examine the association between maternal and delivery care and neonatal mortality, log 

probability models were used to calculate the probability of dying during the first month of life, separately 

for each survey. In such a model the exponentiated intercept is the fitted NMR for the reference group or 

category of the variable. The exponentiated slopes are interpreted as relative risks or risk ratios (RR), the 

probability of dying in one group relative to the probability of dying in the reference group or category. If 

a slope coefficient is significantly different from zero, then there is a significant difference between the 

category of interest and the reference category. 

We present results from two multivariate log probability models (see Appendix Table A2 for unadjusted 

model results). The first model, displayed in Table 5, adjusts for key socio-demographic characteristics of 

the household (place of residence and comparative household wealth, malaria risk), the mother (mother’s 

age at the child’s birth, marital status, educational attainment, loss of a previous child under age 5), and the 

child (sex, birth order, birth interval, multiple birth). In this model, we are interested in whether indicators 

of maternal and delivery care are associated with children’s risk of dying in the first month of life after 

controlling for maternal, child, and household risk factors that could confound the association. In a second 

model, presented in Table 6, we include the full set of maternal and delivery care indicators together with 

the socio-demographic characteristics. In this model we are interested in which components of care remain 

independently associated with the probability of neonatal death, after further adjusting for the mother’s use 

of the other components. 

3.2.1. Protective effect of components of maternal and delivery care, adjusted for socio-demographic 

characteristics 

As shown in Table 5, according to the baseline survey in five of the six countries and according to the 

endline survey in Malawi only, children whose mothers had made fewer than four ANC visits were between 

1.5 and 2.5 times more likely to die in the first month of life compared with children whose mothers had 

made at least four visits, after adjusting for socio-demographic factors. In both Bangladesh and India the 

number of tetanus injections the mother received during pregnancy was significantly associated with the 

child’s risk of dying in the first month of life. According to the endline Bangladesh survey, children whose 

mothers received no injections during the pregnancy were 1.8 times more likely to die during the neonatal 

period compared with children whose mothers received two injections, after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. In the baseline Malawi survey, not receiving the recommended two tetanus 

injections during the pregnancy was significantly associated with neonatal mortality, but the association 

was not significant in the endline survey. It was not significant in either the baseline or endline survey in 

Madagascar, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania. 

According to India’s baseline survey, children whose mothers had received less than 90 days of iron and 

folic acid supplementation during pregnancy were 1.4 times more likely to die during the first month of life 

compared with children whose mothers received the recommended 90 days of supplementation, after 

controlling for socio-demographic characteristics. However, the protective effect of iron and folic acid 

supplementation was non-significant in all other surveys. 

We found no evidence that delivery by a skilled birth attendant is associated with lower risk of neonatal 

mortality. To the contrary, according to the more recent Bangladesh survey, children whose birth was not 

attended by a skilled birth attendant were 50 percent less likely to die in the first month of life compared 

with children whose birth was attended by an SBA, after controlling for socio-demographic characteristics.
Table 5. Relative risk of dying during the neonatal period, adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics of the household, mother, and 

child, among women's most recent children born in the five years preceding the surveys, USAID MCH priority countries with significant reductions in NMR 

Bangladesh India Madagascar 

 Baseline Endline Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB 

RECOMMENDED MATERNAL AND DELIVERY CARE Mother attended 4 or more ANC visits 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 . 1.00 1.00 . 1.00

No 2.45 1.02 5.90* 0.90 0.54 1.50 1.51 1.19 1.91 *** 1.21 0.97 1.51 2.34 1.35 4.05** 1.01 0.63 1.61 Number of tetanus injections during pregnancy 

2+ 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

1 2.14 1.32 3.46** 1.22 0.71 2.10 1.66 1.24 2.23 *** 1.09 0.79 1.53 1.44 0.68 3.08 0.57 0.27 1.19 0 1.87 1.18 2.96** 1.81 1.14 2.89* 1.86 1.52 2.27 *** 1.53 1.24 1.89*** 1.35 0.80 2.27 1.36 0.81 2.27 Mother had 90+ days of iron and folic acid supplementation1 

Yes n/a n/a 1.00 . 1.00 1.00

No 1.40 1.16 1.69 *** 1.10 0.86 1.40 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.56 0.61 3.97 

Delivered by a skilled birth attendant 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 0.68 0.36 1.27 0.50 0.31 0.81** 1.09 0.89 1.35 0.95 0.77 1.17 1.67 0.97 2.88 0.73 0.45 1.20 Community coverage of SBA 0.64 0.17 2.48 0.67 0.24 1.87 1.32 0.94 1.84 1.55 1.10 2.20* 2.75 1.02 7.42* 0.71 0.35 1.47 Delivered in a health facility 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 0.65 0.32 1.34 0.46 0.28 0.74** 0.93 0.74 1.16 0.84 0.68 1.04 1.40 0.82 2.40 0.93 0.55 1.57 Household owns a mosquito bednet 

Net n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.00

No net 1.41 0.89 2.23 Mother received two doses of SP during pregnancy Yes n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.00

No 0.78 0.39 1.59 

(Continued...)

39 
Table 5. – Continued

Malawi Rwanda Mainland Tanzania 

 Baseline Endline Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB 

RECOMMENDED MATERNAL AND DELIVERY CARE Mother attended 4 or more ANC visits 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 1.46 1.07 1.98* 1.77 1.24 2.53** 1.43 0.71 2.89 1.45 0.89 2.38 2.38 1.05 5.40* 1.34 0.85 2.12 Number of tetanus injections during pregnancy 

2+ 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

1 1.39 0.91 2.11 1.31 0.90 1.92 1.26 0.83 1.92 0.84 0.45 1.57 1.13 0.36 3.55 1.10 0.59 2.08 0 3.19 2.32 4.38*** 1.34 0.87 2.09 1.45 0.92 2.28 1.16 0.60 2.22 1.22 0.54 2.77 1.50 0.78 2.87 Mother had 90+ days of iron and folic acid supplementation1 

Yes 1.00 1.00 n/a n/a n/a 1.00

No 1.24 0.69 2.21 1.41 0.97 2.04 0.83 0.25 2.78 

Delivered by a skilled birth attendant 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 1.29 0.94 1.76 0.86 0.58 1.27 0.86 0.55 1.34 0.84 0.50 1.41 0.95 0.46 1.94 0.85 0.45 1.62 Community coverage of SBA 1.07 0.52 2.21 1.29 0.46 3.64 0.74 0.31 1.77 1.55 0.50 4.82 0.96 0.24 3.81 0.81 0.30 2.18 Delivered in a health facility 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 1.39 1.02 1.91* 1.00 0.66 1.50 0.82 0.53 1.26 0.85 0.51 1.42 1.01 0.50 2.06 0.69 0.36 1.31 Household owns a mosquito bednet 

Net 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 . 1.00 1.00 . 

No net 0.73 0.48 1.11 1.75 1.22 2.52** 3.64 0.8515.68 3.16 1.83 5.45*** 1.09 0.41 2.89 3.32 1.94 5.69***Mother received two doses of SP during pregnancy 

Yes 1.00 1.00 n/a n/a n/a 1.00

No 1.45 0.99 2.12 1.29 0.96 1.74 1.67 0.90 3.11 Note: * indicates p<.05; ** indicates p<.01;*** indicates p<.001. The table presents adjusted relative risk (aRR) estimates, which compare the probability of dying in one group relative to the probability of dying in the reference group, after adjusting for the following characteristics of the household (urban residence and comparative household wealth), the mother (age at child's birth, marital status, level of education, and loss of another child under five) and the child (sex, birth interval, birth order, and multiple birth). Malaria risk was included as a control in Madagascar, Malawi, and Mainland Tanzania, and caste was included in India. Marital status was not included in models for Bangladesh or India, since these were ever-married 

samples. Multiple birth was not included in models for Malawi or Mainland Tanzania, given the small number of multiple births. Baseline surveys were conducted in 1999/2000 in 

Bangladesh, 1998/9 in India, 1997 in Madagascar, 2000 in Malawi, 2000 in Rwanda, and 1999 in mainland Tanzania. Endline surveys were conducted in 2011 in Bangladesh, 2005/6 

in India, 2008/9 in Madagascar, 2010 in Malawi, 2010 in Rwanda, and 2010 in mainland Tanzania. 

1 This indicator was calculated for Rwanda as well, but due to the low prevalence of coverage of iron supplementation, the relative risk could not be calculated. 

40 
41 

We also examined a community-level measure of the proportion of women in the cluster whose most recent 

birth was attended by an SBA. This indicator was an attempt to circumvent selection biases introduced by 

the fact that mothers with complicated pregnancies are more likely to seek out an SBA—especially in 

contexts where use of an SBA is uncommon—and the risk of neonatal death is higher in these cases. We 

interpret this community-level measure as a proxy for women’s access to skilled assistance during delivery. 

According to the endline India survey and the baseline Madagascar survey, children born in clusters with 

no SBA coverage were 1.6 and 2.8 times more likely to die during the first month of life, respectively, 

compared with children born in clusters with full SBA coverage12, in the adjusted models. However, this 

community-level indicator was not significantly associated with neonatal mortality in any other surveys. 

As expected, the association between place of delivery and neonatal mortality closely matches the 

association between skilled birth attendance and neonatal mortality. Only in one survey—Malawi’s 

baseline—do we find facility delivery to be associated with neonatal survival in the expected direction; 

according to this survey, children not born in a health facility were 1.4 times more likely to die during the 

first month of life compared with children born in a facility, in the adjusted model. 

In the four sub-Saharan African study countries, we were able to assess the benefit to the child of protection 

against malaria during pregnancy. Household ownership of a mosquito bednet was significantly associated 

with neonatal mortality in the endline survey, but not the baseline survey (when coverage for ITNs and 

IPTp was very low) in three of the four countries—Malawi, Rwanda, and Mainland Tanzania. In the endline 

Madagascar survey, the direction of association was consistent but the effect was non-significant. 

According to the endline Malawi survey, children born into a household without a mosquito bednet were 

1.8 times more likely to die during the neonatal period compared with children born into a household with 

a mosquito bednet; according to the endline Rwanda and Tanzania surveys, children born into a household 

without a mosquito bednet were more than three times more likely to die during the neonatal period, after 

adjusting for socio-demographic factors. 

In Madagascar, Malawi, and mainland Tanzania—where we were able to identify the number of doses of 

SP given to the mother during her most recent pregnancy—we did not find evidence that women’s exposure 

to IPTp was associated with lower risk of neonatal mortality. The direction of association was generally in 

the expected direction but was not statistically significant. 

3.2.2. Final adjusted multivariate model 

Table 6, our final multivariate model, includes indicators of maternal and delivery care (the mother’s use 

of antenatal care, receipt of tetanus toxoid vaccinations, iron and folic acid supplementation, delivery by a 

skilled birth attendant, household ownership of a mosquito bednet, and the mother’s use of two or more 

doses of SP during pregnancy) and controls for the same set of socio-demographic characteristics included 

in Table 5. Due to its high correlation with skilled birth attendance, place of delivery is excluded from this 

model. 

 

 

12 The proportion of women in the cluster who delivered with SBA assistance was included in the regression model 

as a continuous variable. Since the variable ranges between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0 percent to 100 percent coverage), the 

estimate of relative risk can be interpreted as a theoretical comparison of the risk of neonatal mortality among children 

born in clusters with 0 percent coverage to the risk among children born in clusters with 100 percent coverage, even 

though few clusters had these extreme levels of coverage. 
42 

Recommended maternal and delivery care: 

After adjusting for the mother’s use of other components of care and socio-demographic characteristics, 

the number of antenatal care visits that a mother had made remained significantly associated with neonatal 

survival in four of the 12 surveys. According to the baseline survey in three of the six focus countries, and 

according to the endline survey in Malawi, children whose mothers had made fewer than four ANC visits 

were between 1.7 and 2.9 times more likely to die in the first month of life compared with children whose 

mothers had made at least four visits; these effects can be interpreted as the benefit of ANC visits above 

and beyond the benefit of tetanus vaccinations, iron and folic acid supplementation, and provision of SP 

during those visits. 

In Bangladesh and India, the number of tetanus injections the mother received during pregnancy remained 

independently associated with the child’s risk of dying in the first month of life. According to the endline 

surveys in Bangladesh and India, children whose mothers received no injections during the pregnancy were 

1.8 and 1.5 times more likely to die during the neonatal period, respectively, compared with children whose 

mothers received two injections, independent of the mother’s use of other components of maternal and 

delivery care and after controlling for socio-demographic characteristics. Not having received the 

recommended two tetanus injections during the pregnancy also remained significantly associated with 

neonatal mortality in the baseline Malawi survey. In this final model, we found no evidence that receipt of 

at least 90 days of iron and folic acid supplementation during pregnancy was associated with the risk of 

neonatal mortality, independent of the benefits of other components of maternal and delivery care. 

Similar to the results in Table 5, the final model in Table 6 showed no evidence that delivery by a skilled 

birth attendant was protective against neonatal mortality. According to the endline Bangladesh and India 

surveys, children whose birth was not attended by a skilled birth attendant were 52 percent and 22 percent 

less likely to die in the first month of life, respectively, compared with children whose birth was attended 

by an SBA. However, in the endline India survey there was a significant community-level effect of SBA 

use; after adjusting for individual-level SBA use, children born in communities with no coverage of SBA 

were 1.6 times more likely to die during the first month of life compared with children born in clusters with 

full SBA coverage. This community-level indicator was not significantly associated with neonatal mortality 

in any other survey. 

Household ownership of a mosquito bednet remained significantly associated with neonatal mortality in 

the endline surveys in Malawi, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania, even after adjusting for the mother’s use 

of ANC and other components of care, as well as socio-demographic controls. According to the endline 

Malawi survey, children born into a household without a mosquito bednet were 1.8 times more likely to die 

during the neonatal period than children born into a household with a mosquito bednet; according to the 

endline Rwanda and Tanzania surveys, children born into a household without a mosquito bednet were 

more than three times more likely to die during the neonatal period. Additional models were run to see 

whether the effect of mosquito bednet ownership on neonatal mortality depended on the malaria risk zone; 

the interaction was not statistically significant in any of the three countries for which malaria risk zone was 

available (data not shown). 

As in Table 5, in our final model (Table 6) we did not find evidence that women’s use of two doses of SP 

during pregnancy was associated with lower risk of neonatal mortality, in Madagascar, Malawi, or mainland 

Tanzania. 

Socio-demographic characteristics: 

Several socio-demographic characteristics of the mother, child, and household were significantly associated 

with neonatal mortality in the final model. Children whose mothers were at least age 35 at the time of the 
43 

birth had between 1.6 and 6.0 times the adjusted risk of dying in the neonatal period compared with children 

whose mothers were age 18-34, the lowest risk age range, according to at least one survey in Bangladesh, 

India, Malawi, and mainland Tanzania. The excess risk associated with the mother’s young age at the 

child’s birth was statistically significant only in one of 12 surveys, the baseline India survey, where children 

born to mothers under age 18 were 1.3 times more likely to die during the first month of life compared with 

children born to mothers age 18-34. In mainland Tanzania, children born to unmarried mothers were twice 

as likely to die during the neonatal period. Maternal education was associated with neonatal mortality in 

Bangladesh and India only; in the endline surveys in both countries, children whose mothers had primary 

education only were twice as likely to die in the first month of life compared with children whose mothers 

had secondary education or higher, and in India children whose mothers had no education were also twice 

as likely to die during the neonatal period. According to the endline surveys in India, Madagascar, and 

Malawi, children whose mothers had lost another child under age 5 were 1.6 to 2.6 times more likely to die 

during the first month than mothers who had not lost another child under age 5. 

The length of the preceding birth interval was a significant predictor of neonatal mortality in four of the six 

countries, such that children born after a short interval had 1.5 to 3.9 times the adjusted risk of neonatal 

death compared with children born after a two-year interval. In four of the six countries, the child’s birth 

order was also a significant determinant of neonatal mortality; according to the endline mainland Tanzania 

survey, third-order births had a 65 percent lower risk of neonatal death than first and second-order births. 

Boys had between 1.5 and 2.0 times the adjusted risk of dying in the neonatal period than girls, in one 

survey in Malawi, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania. In all surveys, a multiple birth carried substantial 

excess risk. 

We found little evidence that the child’s place of residence or household wealth were associated with 

neonatal survival in the final models. Contrary to expectation, according to the baseline Madagascar survey 

and the endline Tanzania survey, children born in rural households in the lowest comparative wealth tercile 

were 63 percent and 53 percent less likely to die during the first month of life, respectively, compared with 

children born in urban households in the upper two comparative wealth terciles. These findings raise 

questions about potential differential underreporting of neonatal deaths, with more underreporting in poor 

and rural households in these surveys. In Madagascar, Malawi, and mainland Tanzania we found no 

evidence that the community-level risk of malaria was associated with the probability of neonatal death 

after adjusting for other socio-demographic characteristics and the mother’s use of maternal and delivery 

services. 
Table 6. Adjusted relative risk of dying during the neonatal period, among women's most recent children born in the five years preceding 

the surveys, USAID MCH priority countries with significant reductions in NMR 

Bangladesh India Madagascar 

 Baseline Endline Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB 

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HOUSEHOLD Place of residence and comparative wealth index1 Urban upper two-thirds CWI 1.00 1.00 1.00 . 1.00 1.00 1.00 Urban bottom-third CWI 1.12 0.52 2.41 1.23 0.56 2.69 0.64 0.31 1.36 ns 0.97 0.66 1.42 0.58 0.17 2.02 1.19 0.41 3.44 Rural bottom-third CWI 1.25 0.58 2.73 1.13 0.57 2.23 1.04 0.79 1.38 ns 1.12 0.83 1.50 0.37 0.17 0.82* 1.31 0.64 2.69 Rural upper two-thirds CWI 1.06 0.44 2.58 0.83 0.38 1.78 1.13 0.88 1.47 ns 1.15 0.85 1.55 0.63 0.21 1.91 0.97 0.35 2.66 Malaria risk2 None or low (<5% risk) n/a n/a n/a n/a Intermediate (5%-40% risk) 1.00 1.00 High (>40% risk) 0.98 0.59 1.64 1.31 0.81 2.11 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MOTHER Mother's age at child's birth <18 years 1.13 0.65 1.95 0.76 0.39 1.49 1.33 1.02 1.73 * 0.85 0.59 1.21 1.09 0.49 2.40 0.67 0.30 1.48 18-34 years 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 35+ years 0.89 0.39 2.05 2.52 1.10 5.76* 1.60 1.14 2.25 ** 1.35 0.97 1.89 1.15 0.59 2.23 1.82 0.86 3.87 Mother's marital status Currently in union n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.00 1.00 Not currently in union 1.66 0.94 2.93 0.93 0.57 1.53 Mother's educational attainment None 1.09 0.65 1.83 1.40 0.73 2.70 1.19 0.91 1.54 ns 1.92 1.47 2.51*** 1.52 0.72 3.17 0.63 0.26 1.54 Primary 0.84 0.47 1.50 1.87 1.15 3.06* 1.03 0.77 1.39 ns 2.10 1.58 2.79*** 1.35 0.66 2.79 1.16 0.57 2.34 Secondary or higher 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Previous child to mother died under age five years No 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Yes 1.58 0.94 2.66 1.64 0.87 3.07 1.92 1.53 2.42 *** 1.80 1.41 2.30*** 1.46 0.82 2.61 2.57 1.54 4.27 *** 

44 
(Continued...) 

Table 6. – Continued

Bangladesh India Madagascar 

 Baseline Endline Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB 

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CHILD Sex of child Female 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Male 1.26 0.90 1.77 1.42 0.94 2.14 0.99 0.83 1.17 ns 1.10 0.93 1.32 1.40 0.93 2.12 1.45 0.90 2.35 Preceding birth interval 

2 years 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

<2 years 2.37 1.22 4.60* 3.20 1.29 7.92* 1.18 0.92 1.52 ns 1.53 1.18 1.98** 1.65 0.89 3.07 1.34 0.73 2.46 3+ years 0.70 0.35 1.39 1.87 0.82 4.29 0.76 0.60 0.96 * 0.75 0.57 0.99* 0.88 0.46 1.69 1.13 0.65 1.96 First birth 3.65 1.86 7.15*** 2.00 0.83 4.81 1.34 1.03 1.75 * 1.75 1.28 2.40*** 3.12 1.08 8.98* 1.93 0.80 4.64 Birth order 

First and second 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Third 0.82 0.36 1.86 0.76 0.42 1.37 0.72 0.54 0.95 * 0.57 0.41 0.78*** 2.56 1.02 6.39* 0.69 0.27 1.78 Fourth or higher 0.96 0.46 2.00 0.34 0.14 0.86* 0.64 0.48 0.86 ** 0.70 0.51 0.96* 1.85 0.78 4.40 0.50 0.20 1.28 Multiple birth 

Single 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Multiple 8.31 3.61 19.13*** 5.15 1.71 15.49** 5.57 3.40 9.10 *** 4.12 2.45 6.92*** 5.01 1.95 12.88*** 6.30 2.33 17.05 *** RECOMMENDED MATERNAL AND DELIVERY CARE 

Mother attended 4 or more ANC visits 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 . 1.00No 2.87 1.19 6.89* 1.02 0.60 1.73 1.28 0.97 1.68 1.10 0.86 1.42 2.09 1.19 3.70* 1.00 0.64 1.58 Number of tetanus injections during pregnancy 

2+ 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.001 2.09 1.29 3.39** 1.18 0.68 2.03 1.59 1.19 2.13 ** 1.07 0.76 1.50 1.39 0.63 3.04 0.60 0.29 1.25 0 1.88 1.18 2.98** 1.77 1.11 2.81* 1.69 1.36 2.10 *** 1.51 1.22 1.88*** 1.15 0.65 2.02 1.34 0.79 2.27 Mother had 90+ days of iron and folic acid supplementation3 

Yes n/a n/a 1.00 1.00 n/a 1.00

No 1.13 0.91 1.41 0.97 0.75 1.25 1.54 0.61 3.88 

45 
(Continued...) 

Table 6. – Continued

Bangladesh India Madagascar 

 Baseline Endline Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB 

Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00No 0.57 0.30 1.08 0.48 0.27 0.82** 0.91 0.72 1.16 0.78 0.61 0.99* 1.24 0.61 2.50 0.71 0.33 1.54 Community coverage of SBA 0.66 0.13 3.40 1.40 0.44 4.42 1.01 0.68 1.52 1.61 1.06 2.46* 1.58 0.42 6.03 0.82 0.25 2.69 Household owns a mosquito bednet 

Yes 1.00

No 1.47 0.89 2.42 

Mother received two doses of SP during pregnancy 

Yes n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.00

No 0.81 0.39 1.70 

(Continued...)

46 
Table 6. – Continued

Malawi Rwanda Mainland Tanzania 

 Baseline Endline Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB 

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HOUSEHOLD Place of residence and comparative wealth index1 Urban upper two-thirds CWI 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Urban bottom-third CWI 2.07 0.64 6.65 0.76 0.27 2.17 0.52 0.12 2.36 3.25 0.98 10.86 1.42 0.31 6.49 0.75 0.27 2.09 Rural bottom-third CWI 2.04 0.68 6.13 0.83 0.42 1.61 1.46 0.52 4.11 1.49 0.53 4.24 0.74 0.21 2.57 0.47 0.22 0.99 * Rural upper two-thirds CWI 4.61 1.19 17.84* 0.73 0.30 1.74 2.83 0.37 21.59 1.18 0.36 3.87 0.83 0.12 5.70 0.68 0.29 1.61 Malaria risk2 None or low (<5% risk) n/a n/a 1.00 1.00 Intermediate (5%-40% risk) 1.00 1.00 0.81 0.40 1.65 1.05 0.57 1.94 High (>40% risk) 1.30 0.94 1.80 0.83 0.59 1.17 1.33 0.41 4.30 2.12 0.89 5.04 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MOTHER Mother's age at child's birth <18 years 1.27 0.76 2.10 0.62 0.31 1.26 1.50 0.53 4.25 1.39 0.17 11.04 1.86 0.70 5.00 0.81 0.28 2.31 18-34 years 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 35+ years 1.44 0.87 2.38 2.23 1.44 3.46*** 1.36 0.86 2.14 2.04 1.16 3.60 6.11 1.62 23.01** 1.97 0.94 4.12 Mother's marital status Currently in union 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Not currently in union 1.17 0.77 1.78 0.80 0.51 1.26 0.98 0.63 1.52 0.71 0.36 1.41 1.56 0.61 3.97 1.95 1.08 3.54 * Mother's educational attainment None 0.91 0.37 2.26 0.83 0.41 1.67 2.22 0.73 6.72 0.91 0.30 2.76 0.57 0.09 3.66 0.79 0.25 2.51 Primary 1.24 0.56 2.77 1.16 0.64 2.08 1.50 0.53 4.23 1.04 0.39 2.74 0.75 0.14 3.93 1.27 0.49 3.30 Secondary or higher 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Previous child to mother died under age five years No 1.00 . 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Yes 1.89 1.22 2.93** 1.66 1.16 2.39** 1.09 0.74 1.62 1.48 0.92 2.37 2.51 0.91 6.92 0.93 0.47 1.87 

(Continued...) 

47 
Table 6. – Continued

Malawi Rwanda Mainland Tanzania 

 Baseline Endline Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB 

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CHILD Sex of child Female 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 . Male 1.62 1.19 2.22** 1.59 1.16 2.20** 1.81 1.25 2.63 ** 1.41 0.88 2.27 1.67 0.74 3.79 1.85 1.11 3.07 * Preceding birth interval 2 years 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 . 1.00 1.00 <2 years 1.62 0.97 2.71 2.84 1.62 4.98*** 1.62 0.96 2.74 3.91 2.02 7.57*** 0.43 0.10 1.83 1.61 0.61 4.24 3+ years 0.97 0.61 1.54 2.21 1.36 3.57** 0.97 0.63 1.50 1.32 0.68 2.57 1.11 0.36 3.44 1.33 0.68 2.61 First birth 2.70 1.47 4.95** 4.77 2.47 9.20*** 1.18 0.63 2.23 2.31 0.92 5.80 1.31 0.33 5.14 1.10 0.51 2.37 Birth order First and second 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Third 1.19 0.65 2.18 0.97 0.50 1.88 0.58 0.28 1.17 0.90 0.37 2.17 0.98 0.21 4.64 0.35 0.13 0.94 * Fourth or higher 0.87 0.48 1.55 0.82 0.49 1.36 0.63 0.37 1.07 1.04 0.44 2.46 0.11 0.02 0.63* 0.49 0.20 1.17 Multiple birth Single n/a n/a 1.00 1.00 n/a n/a Multiple 10.55 6.02 18.50 *** 3.77 1.32 10.80* RECOMMENDED MATERNAL AND DELIVERY CARE Mother attended 4 or more ANC visits Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 No 1.22 0.90 1.65 1.74 1.23 2.45** 1.36 0.68 2.73 1.38 0.85 2.24 2.36 1.11 5.03* 1.33 0.84 2.10 Number of tetanus injections during pregnancy 2+ 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1 1.34 0.89 2.03 1.23 0.83 1.81 1.24 0.81 1.89 0.81 0.43 1.52 0.98 0.31 3.03 1.01 0.52 1.96 0 2.98 2.16 4.12*** 1.28 0.82 2.01 1.44 0.92 2.26 1.18 0.61 2.28 1.09 0.52 2.28 1.47 0.77 2.79 Mother had 90+ days of iron and folic acid supplementation3 Yes 1.00 1.00 n/a n/a n/a 1.00 No 1.07 0.60 1.91 1.23 0.86 1.77 0.83 0.24 2.85 

(Continued...) 

48 
Table 6. – Continued

Malawi Rwanda Mainland Tanzania 

 Baseline Endline Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB aRR LB UB 

Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 

No 1.11 0.77 1.59 0.72 0.45 1.16 0.85 0.53 1.36 0.70 0.40 1.25 0.73 0.32 1.68 0.93 0.42 2.08 

Community coverage of SBA 0.77 0.35 1.70 1.50 0.43 5.24 0.77 0.31 1.89 1.71 0.48 6.11 1.05 0.24 4.61 0.60 0.17 2.12 Household owns a mosquito bednet Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 . 1.00 1.00 

No 0.73 0.47 1.12 1.76 1.22 2.54** 3.45 0.82 14.53 3.35 1.95 5.76*** 1.00 0.36 2.74 3.36 1.90 5.95 *** 

Mother received two doses of SP during pregnancy Yes 1.00 1.00 n/a n/a n/a 1.00 

No 1.19 0.80 1.77 1.19 0.87 1.62 1.58 0.83 3.00 Note: * indicates p<.05; ** indicates p<.01;*** indicates p<.001. The table presents adjusted relative risk (aRR) estimates, which compare the probability of dying in one group relative to the probability of dying in the reference group, after adjusting for after adjusting for all other variables in the model. Note that for India, the regression model also adjusted for the mother's caste. Baseline 

surveys were conducted in 1999/2000 in Bangladesh, 1998/9 in India, 1997 in Madagascar, 2000 in Malawi, 2000 in Rwanda, and 1999 in mainland Tanzania. Endline surveys were conducted in 2011 in Bangladesh, 2005/6 in India, 2008/9 in Madagascar, 2010 in Malawi, 2010 in Rwanda, and 2010 in mainland Tanzania. 

1 The DHS-constructed comparative wealth index uses a fixed baseline (the 2002 Vietnam DHS) enabling measurement of improvements in wealth over time and comparison of absolute wealth 

across country. This four-level indicator measures the effect of being in the bottom comparative wealth third separately in urban and rural households. Urban upper-two thirds is used as the reference. 2 This indicator has three levels: no/low, intermediate, and high risk. In low risk areas, the annual averaged plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in 2-10 year olds is likely to be lower than 5%. In intermediate risk areas, plasmodium falciparum transmission is likely to be between 5%-40%. In high risk areas, transmission is likely to exceed 40%. Note that in Malawi, the population falls in just intermediate and high risk areas. In Madagascar, due to the small number of cases in the no/low risk category in the 2008 survey, no/low risk was collapsed with intermediate risk. 3 While this indicator was calculated for Rwanda, due to the low prevalence of coverage of iron supplementation, the relative risk could not be calculated. 

49 
50 

3.3. Multivariate Decomposition Results 

Table 7 identifies factors associated with the reduction in the NMR between the baseline and endline 

surveys in the six focus countries. To address how these factors have contributed, the change in neonatal 

mortality across surveys was divided into two parts, one representing changes in the distribution of sociodemographic characteristics and coverage of interventions (“endowments,” already described in Table 4), 

and the other representing the strength of effect of those characteristics or interventions (“coefficients,” 

summarized in Table 6). Within the population of most recent children born in the five years preceding 

each survey for which complete information on key indicators was available, the decline in the NMR was 

8 points between the 1999/2000 and 2011 surveys in Bangladesh, 3 points between the 1998/9 and 2005/6 

surveys in India, 12 points between the 1997 and 2008/9 surveys in Madagascar, 5 points between the 2000 

and 2010 Malawi surveys, 16 points between the 2000 and 2010 Rwanda surveys, and 14 points between 

the 1999 and 2010 Tanzania surveys13. These declines will be partitioned into a component due to 

“endowments” or coverage and a component due to “coefficients” or effects. The two components add up 

to the total decline. As will be seen, the two components may reinforce each other, with both having the 

same sign, or they may counteract each other, and have opposite signs.

Each decomposition tested whether the available maternal and delivery care interventions—use of four or 

more ANC visits, provision of at least 90 days of iron and folic acid supplementation during pregnancy, the 

number of tetanus injections during pregnancy, presence of a skilled birth attendant at delivery, community 

coverage of skilled attendance at delivery, and where available, household ownership of a mosquito bednet 

and mother’s use of IPTp—are associated with the observed declines in neonatal mortality. Each 

decomposition model included the same set of socio-demographic characteristics (place of residence and 

comparative household wealth, mother’s age at the child’s birth, mother’s marital status, mother’s 

education, loss of a previous child under age 5, child’s sex, preceding birth interval, birth order, multiple 

birth14) that were included in the final multivariate log probability models presented in Table 6. Models 

also adjusted for the community’s level of malaria risk in the three countries where these data were 

available, and for the mother’s caste, in India. 

3.3.1. Overview of decomposition results 

In three of the six countries (India, Malawi, and Rwanda), the total change in “endowments” (i.e., coverage) 

in the covariates explained a significant portion of the observed reduction in NMR, while the change in 

“coefficients” (i.e. effects) of these covariates was not significant (see Table 7). In India, the change in 

endowments explained 75 percent of the total observed change, and in Malawi and Rwanda the change in 

endowments explained more than 100 percent of the change (207 percent and 228 percent, respectively), 

because the effect of the change in “coefficients” was in the opposite direction and served to reduce or 

dampen the effect of changes in “endowments”. 

While in mainland Tanzania the “endowments” portion of the decomposition did not reach statistical 

significance15, mainland Tanzania followed the same pattern as India, Malawi, and Rwanda. The change in 

distribution of variables accounted for the majority (70 percent) of the improvement in NMR, while the 

change in effect of covariates accounted for 30 percent of the total change. Despite the non-significance of 

the endowments portion as a whole for mainland Tanzania, the endowment of several individual variables 

 

13 Reductions in NMR may not exactly match those presented in Table 3, as the decomposition is restricted to children 

with complete data on all variables included in the model. 

14 Due to the small number of multiple births, the variable was not included in the decompositions for two countries. 

15 The p-value for the “endowments” portion is 0.07, likely due to the small sample size of the Tanzania 1999 survey.
51 

in the model—the mother’s marital status, the child’s birth order, sex of the child, and household ownership 

of a mosquito bednet—were significantly associated with the observed reduction in neonatal mortality. 

The results for Bangladesh and Madagascar followed a different pattern. Unlike in the other four countries, 

the endowments portion explained very little of the observed reductions in NMR and is non-significant in 

both countries, while the change in coefficients explained over 100 percent of the observed reduction in 

Bangladesh (the change in endowments worked in the opposite direction) and nearly 80 percent of the 

observed reduction in Madagascar. While the total change in coefficients was significantly associated with 

the observed reductions in NMR, no individual covariate’s coefficient portion was statistically significant 

in either country, making the results for these two countries difficult to interpret. In sum, in Bangladesh and 

Madagascar we found no evidence that either the scale-up of measurable maternal and delivery 

interventions or the change in distribution of socio-demographic characteristics contributed to the observed 

reductions in NMR. 

3.3.2. Detailed decomposition results 

Given that the decomposition did not identify any covariates—in any of the six focal countries—for which 

the change between surveys was significantly associated with the observed reduction in NMR, we will not 

discuss the results from the “coefficient” portion of the decomposition. Instead, we focus on the 

“endowments” portion and examine the extent to which the scale-up of key maternal and delivery 

interventions is associated with the observed reductions in NMR in the six countries with significant 

reductions. 

Antenatal care and its components: 

In four of the six study countries (Bangladesh, India, Madagascar, and Rwanda), there was an increase 

between the two surveys in coverage of women’s use of four or more ANC visits during pregnancy, while 

in two countries (Malawi and mainland Tanzania) there was a decline in coverage. In Malawi, the reduction 

in coverage of women’s having at least four ANC visits from 57 to 46 percent between baseline and endline 

surveys was associated with a 1.3 point increase in neonatal mortality. In mainland Tanzania the reduction 

in coverage from 71 to 43 percent between surveys was associated with a non-significant increase of 1.8 

points in NMR. In India and Rwanda, the increase in coverage of women’s use of four or more ANC visits 

corresponded with non-significant reductions in NMR. 

In India, the increase in coverage of tetanus vaccination between baseline and endline was associated with 

a significant reduction in neonatal mortality of 0.8 deaths per 1,000 live births. While the change in coverage 

of tetanus vaccination during pregnancy was not significantly associated with changes in NMR in any other 

country, it is worth noting that in all countries the direction of the contribution was as expected, given the 

change of coverage. In Bangladesh and mainland Tanzania—where we observed reductions in coverage of 

women’s use of at least two tetanus injections during pregnancy—the compositional changes were 

associated with non-significant increases in NMR, while in the remaining four countries—which all 

experienced increases in coverage of two or more tetanus injections—the compositional changes were 

associated with non-significant reductions in NMR. But the principal finding for tetanus vaccination is that, 

apart from India, the relationship between change in coverage and change in neonatal mortality is not 

statistically significant. 
Table 7. Multivariate decomposition of socio-demographic and maternal and delivery care related differences in the NMR between baseline 

and endline surveys, showing contributions to the NMR gap attributed to differences in endowments and to differences in coefficients, USAID MCH priority countries with significant reductions in NMR 

Bangladesh India Madagascar Malawi Rwanda 

Mainland 

Tanzania 

Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. 

DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN CHARACTERISTICS (E) Household-level 

Place of residence and comparative wealth index1 -0.33 -0.24 -0.12 0.07 -1.49 0.58 Malaria risk2 0.02 0.03 0.23 Caste 0.15 

Mother-level Mother's age at child's birth -0.18 0.19 0.35 -0.23* -1.17* 0.57 Mother's marital status 0.04 -0.08 0.39 0.27* 

Mother's educational attainment -1.28 -1.30*** -0.01 0.83 0.51 0.03 Previous child to mother died under age five years -0.77 -0.26*** -2.30** -1.25** -1.23 0.16 

Child-level 

Preceding birth interval 0.22 0.16** 0.06 -0.20 0.05 0.22 

Birth order 1.64* 0.18*** 0.24 -0.06 -0.07 -0.57* Sex of child 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.03** 0.10 0.00* 

Multiple birth -0.02* 0.08*** 0.01*** -0.02* 

Recommended maternal and delivery care Mother attended 4 or more ANC visits -0.04 -0.17 -0.03 1.32** -2.19 1.83 

Number of tetanus injections during pregnancy 1.05 -0.79** -0.79 -0.39 -0.97 0.98 Mother had 90+ days of iron and folic acid supplementation 

-0.13 -1.09

Mother received two doses of SP during pregnancy -0.92 

Delivered by a skilled birth attendant 1.86 0.43* -0.02 1.53 4.23 0.12 Community coverage of SBA -0.85 -0.67* -0.05 -1.72 -5.97 0.59 Household owns a mosquito net -8.61** -28.44* -15.10** 

Total 1.31 -2.35* -2.57 -10.74** -36.27* -10.07 Percent -16.04 75.04 20.86 206.76 228.10 70.39 

(Continued...)

52 
Table 7. – Continued

Bangladesh India Madagascar Malawi Rwanda 

Mainland 

Tanzania 

Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. 

DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN COEFFICIENTS ( C ) 

Household-level 

Place of residence and comparative wealth index1 -2.91 0.41 32.59 -24.49 5.72 19.33 

Malaria risk2 0.70 -27.85 9.54 

Caste -1.61 

Mother-level Mother's age at child's birth 0.33 -0.53 0.65 0.79 5.22 12.43 Mother's marital status -19.80 -11.66 -15.48 -13.04 

Mother's educational attainment 3.36 -1.14 15.60 0.50 16.62 -5.35 Previous child to mother died under age five years -0.69 0.54 -10.44 2.03 -7.08 -31.03 Child-level Preceding birth interval 9.25 1.17 -1.50 13.62 15.83 -5.57 

Birth order -9.27 -0.19 -22.42 -1.66 14.72 -24.25 Sex of child 1.98 0.62 0.35 -0.18 -5.52 -2.21 Multiple birth -0.13 -0.01 0.03 -0.67 

Recommended maternal and delivery care Mother attended 4 or more ANC visits -29.05 -1.08 -12.05 3.83 0.73 7.46 Number of tetanus injections during pregnancy -3.20 -0.61 -0.51 -4.77 -9.86 -3.52 Mother had 90+ days of iron and folic acid supplementation -1.01 3.76 

Mother received two doses of SP during pregnancy -0.18 

Delivered by a skilled birth attendant -4.92 -2.86 -23.92 -16.50 -9.63 -16.21 

Community coverage of SBA 19.66 2.81 -10.78 8.44 24.79 12.18 Household owns a mosquito bednet 42.93 -2.27 -97.39 Constant 6.07 0.39 44.05 16.94 -12.76 133.39 

Total -9.50** -0.78 -9.76* 5.54 20.37 -4.24 Percent 116.04 24.96 79.14 -106.76 -128.10 29.61 

(Continued...)

53 
Table 7. – Continued

Bangladesh India Madagascar Malawi Rwanda 

Mainland 

Tanzania 

Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. 

NMR difference (per 1,000) -8.18** -3.13* -12.34** -5.19* -15.90*** -14.31* 1 The DHS-constructed comparative wealth index uses a fixed baseline (the 2002 Vietnam DHS) enabling measurement of improvements in wealth over time and 

comparison of absolute wealth across country. This four-level indicator measures the effect of being in the bottom comparative wealth third separately in urban and 

rural households. Urban upper-two thirds is used as the reference. 

2 This indicator has three levels: no/low, intermediate, and high risk. In low risk areas, the annual averaged plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in 2-10 year olds is likely to be lower than 5%. In intermediate risk areas, plasmodium falciparum transmission is likely to be between 5%-40%. In high risk areas, transmission is likely to exceed 40%. Note that in Malawi, the population falls in just intermediate and high risk areas. In Madagascar, due to the small number of 

cases in the no/low risk category in the 2008 survey, no/low risk was collapsed with intermediate risk. 

54 
55 

In India and Malawi, we were also able to assess the independent contribution of taking at least 90 days’ 

worth of iron/folate tablets or syrup during pregnancy to reductions in NMR. In India, coverage of 

iron/folate supplementation during pregnancy declined from 40 to 23 percent between surveys, while in 

Malawi coverage increased from 11 to 32 percent. In the decomposition, we found no evidence that these 

changes in coverage corresponded with changes in NMR. 

Scale-up of skilled birth attendance: 

In five of the six countries, coverage of skilled birth attendance at delivery increased between the two 

surveys. This increase was most dramatic in Rwanda, where skilled birth attendance during women’s most 

recent birth increased from 26 to 72 percent between the baseline and endline surveys. Given 

methodological challenges in identifying the protective effect of skilled birth attendance (i.e. in settings 

where use of an SBA is low, high-risk pregnancies and births with preexisting complications are more likely 

to seek assistance, and the risk of NMR is higher among these births), we include two measures of skilled 

attendance in the decomposition model. In addition to an individual-level measure of whether the delivery 

was assisted by an SBA, we include a community-level measure of the mean level of SBA coverage among 

births in each cluster. The increase in individual use of an SBA was associated with an increase in NMR in 

five of the six countries (statistically significant in India only). However, after adjusting for individual-level 

use, the increase in cluster-level coverage of skilled birth attendance was associated with a reduction in 

NMR in the same five countries (again, statistically significant in India only). In India, the increase in 

coverage of individual SBA-use was associated with an increase in NMR of 0.4 deaths per 1,000 live births, 

while the increase in community-level coverage was associated with a decline in NMR of 0.7 deaths per 

1,000 live births. This finding suggests that what is important to newborn survival is the availability of 

obstetric care services when needed, rather than routine recourse to institutional deliveries. In other words, 

this association seen at the community level but not at the individual level can be interpreted as indicating 

the benefit of having services genuinely available, in case of emergency. Again, however, apart from India, 

the increase in coverage is not significantly related to declines in neonatal mortality. 

Scale-up of interventions to protect women against malaria during pregnancy: 

Of all the indicators included in the decomposition models for the three malarious countries with mosquito 

bednet data available, the dramatic increase in household ownership of a mosquito bednet was responsible 

for the greatest portion of the observed declines in NMR. On its own, the increase in mosquito bednet 

coverage was associated with an estimated reduction in the NMR of 9 deaths per 1,000 live births in Malawi, 

a reduction of 28 deaths per 1,000 live births in Rwanda, and a reduction of 15 deaths per 1,000 live births 

in mainland Tanzania, after adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics, other indicators of maternal 

and delivery care, and the household’s level of malaria risk. The association was statistically significant in 

all three countries. 

In Malawi, where we were able to measure coverage of IPTp as well, we found no evidence to suggest that 

the increasing coverage of IPTp (i.e. the mother’s being given two doses of SP during pregnancy) 

contributed to the reduction in the NMR. 

Socio-demographic changes: 

The changes in composition of several socio-demographic characteristics of the mother and child—

including the mother’s age at child’s birth, marital status, educational attainment, and loss of another child 

under age 5, the child’s sex, birth order, preceding birth interval, and multiple birth—were each associated 

with changes in neonatal mortality in at least one country. The change in composition of women’s age at 

the child’s birth, for example—and specifically, the increasing percentage of mothers in the lowest risk 18-

34 age range—was significantly associated with a reduction in NMR of 1.2 points in Rwanda and 0.2 points 
56 

in Malawi. In India, the increase in children born after a short birth interval from 22 to 25 percent was 

significantly associated with an increase in NMR of 0.2 points. In India, Madagascar, and Malawi, the 

reduction between surveys in the percentage of mothers who had lost another child under age 5 was 

significantly associated with reductions in NMR of between 0.3 and 2.3 points, suggesting that this indicator 

was able to capture and control for some of the unexplained residual household and maternal risk. 

Surprisingly, we found no evidence to suggest that changes in the composition of births by urban-rural 

residence or increases in wealth during this period contributed to the decline in neonatal mortality. 

However, in India the increasing levels of maternal education—the proportion of births to women with a 

secondary education or higher rose from 30 to 39 percent—was associated with a significant reduction of 

1.3 deaths per 1,000 live births. There was a similar effect size in Bangladesh, although it did not reach 

statistical significance. 

3.3.3. Summary of decomposition results 

Within our limited set of measured maternal and delivery care indicators, we found only weak evidence 

that the scale-up of maternal and delivery care has contributed to observed reductions in NMR. No single 

indicator contributed significantly to the reduction in NMR in more than one country, except for mosquito 

bednet coverage. However, in the majority of countries the direction of association was generally as 

expected for the contributions of antenatal care, tetanus vaccination, iron and folic acid supplementation, 

and IPTp. In settings with increased coverage the indicator was associated with a reduction in NMR, and 

in settings with reductions in coverage the indicator was associated with an increase in NMR, even if not 

statistically significant. While the correspondence between declines in coverage with increases in NMR 

points to the importance of these interventions for neonatal survival, it does not explain what factors have 

driven the observed improvements in NMR. 

In the three malarious countries with data on mosquito bednet ownership, the rapid increase in household 

ownership of mosquito bednets stands out as a driving force behind the observed reductions in neonatal 

mortality. In all three countries, mosquito bednet ownership was significantly associated with the reduction 

in the NMR between the 2000 and 2010 surveys, even after adjusting for the effects of key components of 

maternal and delivery care, the spatial level of malaria risk, and key socio-demographic characteristics. 
57 

4. Discussion and Conclusions 

Overall, of the 18 USAID MCH priority countries with two available DHS surveys around the years 2000 

and 2010, only half showed significant reductions in neonatal mortality among all births in the five years 

preceding each survey. In the six countries with significant reductions within the study population of the 

most recent child in the past five years, the study investigated the extent to which scale-up of measured 

indicators of maternal and delivery care is associated with those reductions. In most settings there was some 

improvement in the coverage of indicators of maternal and delivery care—e.g. four or more ANC visits 

made during the pregnancy, the provision of tetanus vaccination and iron/folic acid supplementation during 

pregnancy, the provision of two doses of SP during pregnancy in SSA countries, delivery by a skilled birth 

attendant, and household ownership of mosquito bednets. Unexpectedly, there is little evidence that the 

scale-up of these interventions contributed to reductions in NMR. In Malawi, Rwanda, and mainland 

Tanzania, the rapid increase in mosquito bednet coverage stands out as a driver of improvements in neonatal 

mortality, but we did not find strong evidence that other interventions contributed to observed reductions. 

There are several possible interpretations of the weak associations found in this report. First, we have 

measurement error. The specific data collected in the DHS as indicators of interventions of interest are only 

approximations—and may not correspond closely to the actual practice. For example, the fact that a survey 

respondent reports that there is an insecticide-treated net in the household at the time the surveyors come 

to visit may or may not be a good proxy for whether the woman consistently slept under a mosquito bednet 

during her last pregnancy. Likewise, the fact that a woman reports having received iron-folate supplements 

for at least three months during her last pregnancy may or may not mean she consistently took the tablets. 

Thus, even for an intervention that genuinely reduces risk of newborn death, the indicator may not show a 

strong correlation. 

A second possible reason for a weak observed association may be that the underlying construct we are 

trying to measure is, in fact, not closely associated with survival. That is, the evidence of an intervention 

may be superficial. This is possible for the contact measures—skilled birth attendance and receipt of four 

or more ANC visits. That such a contact has occurred cannot be assumed to mean that specific interventions 

were actually delivered that would reduce risk of negative outcomes. Indeed there is a well-developed 

literature (Scott and Ronsmans 2009; Singh et al. 2012) showing the weak relationship between such 

contact measures and mortality outcomes, pointing to the need to develop, test, and collect valid indicators 

on the actual content of care received. 

A third possible effect that can weaken or even reverse the expected relationships is selectivity. More ANC 

visits and delivery in a facility, for example, may tend to be associated with a difficult pregnancy and early 

warning signs of a difficult birth. If high-risk births are more likely to receive extra care, and that care is 

not completely successful in counteracting the higher risk, then the relationship between the outcome and 

the intervention may be misinterpreted. 

A fourth important reason for the weak findings is the lack of data on other practices that could impact 

neonatal mortality, such as immediate newborn care, care of the cord, resuscitation, or kangaroo mother 

care for low birth weight babies. A technical working group convened by the Saving Newborn Lives 

program at Save the Children in 2008 brought together evaluation and measurement experts, researchers, 

and other stakeholders to reach consensus on the indicators needed to measure progress toward promoting 

newborn survival (Moran et al. 2013). The working group agreed on three additional indicators for care of 

the newborn after birth—drying, delayed bathing, and cutting the cord with a clean instrument—and agreed 

on the need for further testing of two additional indicators (immediate skin-to-skin care and applications to 

the umbilical cord) (Moran et al. 2013). Once indicators such as these become widely available in 

population-based survey data, more detailed analyses will become possible. 
58 

Finally, potentially effective interventions may have little impact if there are other, counteracting factors

at play in a given population that attenuate the risk that that intervention addresses. For example, tetanus 

toxoid given in pregnancy can have a significant impact in settings where non-sterile blades are used for 

cutting the cord and cow dung is put on the cord-stump. In settings where sterile blades and other hygienic 

practices are already in use, the mortality effect of increasing TT coverage may be modest. 

More detailed examples of how such factors may attenuate or even reverse the relationships between 

interventions and outcomes are given below: 

Weak evidence that scale-up of skilled birth attendance contributed to reductions in neonatal mortality 

A scale-up of coverage of skilled clinical care in facilities (including skilled maternal and immediate 

newborn care, emergency obstetric care, and emergency neonatal care) has been hypothesized to have the 

potential to avert 21 to 44 percent of global neonatal deaths (Darmstadt et al. 2008). Over the past 15 years, 

international maternal and newborn health efforts have focused above all on increasing the coverage of 

institutional deliveries, with notable increases in five of the study’s six focus countries between 2000 and 

2010. However, our analysis found only limited evidence that the scale-up of SBA coverage has in fact 

contributed to reductions in neonatal mortality. What conclusions can be drawn from these findings? 

At the individual level, our null and inverse findings for the association between use of an SBA and neonatal 

mortality (in both the regression and decomposition analysis) are not surprising, as the results are likely to 

be driven in part by selection biases. In settings where use of SBAs is not the norm, women who seek out 

skilled birth assistance are more likely to have higher-risk pregnancies and birth complications, and the 

odds of survival are likely to be lower among these newborns. Lohela and colleagues (2012) report evidence 

of this pattern as part of a larger study examining distance to a health facility and early neonatal mortality 

in Zambia and Malawi. They report that in DHS clusters with a low frequency of facility delivery (<15 

percent coverage), children born in a facility have greater odds of early neonatal death compared with 

children born at home (OR 1.33 in Malawi, OR 2.44 in Zambia), while in DHS clusters with a high 

frequency of facility delivery (>70 percent coverage), the odds of early neonatal deaths are lower among 

children born at a facility compared with children born at home (OR 0.58 in Malawi, OR 0.30 in Zambia) 

(Lohela et al. 2012). We see similar evidence of this confounding in India when we examine the effect of 

skilled birth attendance across levels of community-level SBA coverage (see Figure 12). In communities 

in India where delivery with an SBA is the norm (>75 percent coverage), use of an SBA is in fact associated 

with lower risk of neonatal mortality, whereas in areas where use of an SBA is not common practice, there 

is no association. While there are various possible interpretations for these associations, one such 

interpretation is that the pattern points to selection biases in care-seeking behavior. 

 
59 

Figure 12. Adjusted effect of individual SBA use, across levels of community-SBA coverage, India 

2005/6 DHS 

More surprising, perhaps, are the weak results for the community-level indicator of women’s access to 

skilled birth attendance. This community-level measure should not be subject to the selection biases 

mentioned earlier. In the decomposition analysis for India, we did find that the increase in community-level 

coverage of SBA is associated with a reduction in NMR, suggesting the importance of community-level 

access to emergency care in case of complications, rather than routine and universal use of those services. 

However, we found no evidence that the increase in community SBA coverage contributed to the observed 

reductions in NMR in the five other countries. 

In fact, these findings fit into a growing body of evidence that the scale-up of institutional deliveries has 

not resulted in improved newborn (Lohela et al. 2012; Singh et al. 2012) or maternal survival outcomes 

(Scott and Ronsmans 2009). Ecological analyses find little correlation between facility delivery coverage 

and neonatal survival. For example, unpublished secondary analysis of data from the 2008 Nigeria DHS 

finds no difference in the rate of neonatal death between states in Nigeria with very high coverage of facility 

delivery, compared to the rate in states with very low coverage (data not shown). Furthermore, at the 

national level, among 18 high-burden countries for maternal and newborn mortality for which SBA and 

NMR results are available from at least two DHS surveys on STATcompiler, we find that the larger the 

increase in SBA coverage, the smaller the reduction in NMR (Pearson’s r = -.33, see Appendix Figure A3). 

Together, these findings suggests that “skilled birth attendance” (or similarly, facility delivery) alone may 

not be protective against neonatal death. As mentioned, these indicators measure contact only; we do not 

know the content of care provided by the SBA, the level of training of the SBA, or the availability of 

emergency obstetric care during delivery. In other words, the scale-up in facility deliveries or “skilled birth 

attendance” may not correspond to an increase in the percentage of newborns delivered with comprehensive 

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

012345

Adjusted RR of Neonatal Mortality

Individual-level SBA

<25% 25-49% 50-74% >75%

Community-level SBA Coverage
60 

access to life-saving, high-quality obstetric care provided by genuinely skilled and well-equipped health 

workers. 

The question remains, to what extent does the lack of association between SBA coverage and neonatal 

mortality reflect lack of real access to effective emergency obstetric care, and to what extent might the 

findings point to an issue of quality of routine delivery care. Lohela and colleagues (2012) were able to 

more precisely measure women’s access to emergency obstetric care (EmOC) facilities in a study that 

combined individual-level data from two DHS surveys (Malawi 2004 and Zambia 2007) with facility-level 

data from national health facility censuses conducted two years before each DHS (2002 in Malawi and 2005 

in Zambia). Using the facility data, they identified basic and comprehensive EmOC facilities, based on 

provision of key signal functions (see Lohela et al. 2012 for more detail), and measured straight-line 

distance from rural DHS clusters to the closest basic and comprehensive EmOC health facilities. Using 

these measures of distance, they still did not find an association between proximity to EmOC health 

facilities and early neonatal mortality. 

In aggregate, the null findings may in fact point to an issue of quality of care. If we take Rwanda—the 

country with the most impressive scale-up in coverage of skilled birth attendance—as an example, previous 

studies suggest that there may still be important deficiencies in the quality of maternal care services, despite 

the expansion of services. The 2007 Rwanda Service Provision Assessment found considerable deficits in 

availability of the basic supplies necessary for ANC, normal and complicated deliveries, and postpartum 

care (National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) et al. 2008). While Rwanda MOH norms state that 

all health centers should be able to provide basic emergency obstetric care and all district hospitals should 

be able to provide comprehensive emergency obstetric care, findings from a recent quality of care 

assessment show that the actual availability of such standards of care is much lower (Ngabo et al. 2012). In 

rural India as well, Singh and colleagues (2012) found that increases in coverage of hospital delivery were 

not associated with declines in perinatal mortality, and concluded that quality may not have improved along 

with the increased coverage, citing the shortage of qualified service providers, equipment, and supplies in 

primary-level and secondary-level health facilities in India as a potential part of the explanation (Singh et 

al. 2012). Poor-quality services could in part explain the absence of any protective association between 

skilled birth attendance and neonatal survival, highlighting the need to ensure that there is an emphasis on 

health system strengthening and improved quality of care alongside efforts to increase use of delivery health 

services. 

These interpretations are reinforced by recent findings in the 2014 Every Newborn Lancet series. As part 

of this series, Dickson and colleagues (2014) emphasize that newborn care interventions around the day of 

delivery are “especially dependent on health-system infrastructure, capacity, and resources” and that 

“strengthening of clinical care in facilities is essential because it provides the backbone of services that save 

the lives of women and children, particularly newborn babies” (Dickson et al. 2014). Through a consultation 

with stakeholders in high-burden countries, they identified major bottlenecks to full scale-up of newborn 

survival interventions. They report that challenges around health financing, health workforce, health service 

delivery, and essential medical products and technologies emerged as the greatest barriers to scaling up 

newborn survival interventions in health facilities. Underlying shortages and inefficient distribution of 

skilled health workers emerged as a major challenge in many high-burden countries. The study found that 

even for supposedly assisted deliveries, skilled health staff was often unavailable to provide care for the 

newborn baby following the birth (Dickson et al. 2014). 

Weak evidence that scale-up of ANC and its components contributed to reductions in NMR

In the decomposition analysis, we found no evidence that scale-up of coverage of four or more ANC visits 

contributed to reductions in NMR. Like skilled birth attendance, this is a measure of contact rather than 

content, with similar limitations. We know neither what happened during the antenatal care visits nor the 
61 

skill level of the provider. The emphasis in global maternal health on contact coverage (with the wide use 

of four or more ANC visits as a key benchmark indicator) directs the attention of program managers away 

from ANC content. 

The analysis did find limited evidence that the scale-up of two recommended components of antenatal care 

(tetanus vaccination and iron/folic acid supplementation) contributed to the observed reductions in NMR. 

In five of the 12 surveys, children whose mothers had received fewer than two doses of tetanus injections 

during the pregnancy were more likely to die during the neonatal period, even after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and the use of other maternal and delivery services. However, only in India 

was there evidence that the scale-up of tetanus vaccination coverage contributed to the observed reduction 

in neonatal mortality. The tetanus immunization measure used here is crude; a more refined measurement 

identifying “full tetanus protection” might have produced stronger results. Furthermore, even though 

tetanus toxoid is known to be an efficacious treatment, the impact of increases in coverage may be small in 

settings where good umbilical cord hygiene practices are already the norm. 

As for iron/folic acid supplementation, in the three countries where we were able to look at the scale-up of 

women’s reported coverage of taking at least 90 days of iron and folic acid tablets/syrup during pregnancy, 

there was no evidence of an independent association with neonatal mortality after controlling for other 

components of maternal and delivery care and socio-demographic controls, and no evidence that scale-up 

of coverage contributed to the reductions in NMR in those countries. Two factors help explain the lack of 

contribution: first, coverage of full supplementation is relatively low in all three countries (<40 percent), 

which could make it difficult to detect an association. Second, only in one of the three countries (Malawi) 

was there an improvement in coverage. Furthermore, the responses to the survey question may not be a 

good reflection of the actual number of iron-folate tablets taken. 

The importance of protecting the mother against malaria during pregnancy 

Study findings contribute to a growing body of evidence pointing to the importance of malaria interventions 

for neonatal survival (Eisele et al. 2012; Hill and van Eijk 2014; Winter et al. 2013). Of all the indicators 

included in the decomposition models for the three malarious countries with mosquito bednet data, the 

dramatic increase in household ownership of a mosquito bednet was responsible for the greatest portion of 

the observed declines in NMR. 

Ownership of a mosquito bednet at the time of interview is an imprecise proxy for the mother’s use of an 

ITN during pregnancy, but the observed association is plausible, given the well-documented association 

between malaria during pregnancy and elevated risk of neonatal death (Eisele et al. 2012; Guyatt and Snow 

2001). In a multi-country study examining the impact of protection against malaria during pregnancy on 

neonatal mortality and the child’s birth weight in 25 malarious countries in Africa, Eisele and colleagues 

(2012) found that exposure to malaria protection during pregnancy (either through mosquito bednet 

ownership or through IPTp) was associated with reduced odds of neonatal mortality and reduced odds of 

low birth weight among first or second births. 

In contrast to previous findings in malarious sub-Saharan African settings (Eisele et al. 2012; Menéndez et 

al. 2010), our study did not find a protective effect of IPTp on neonatal mortality in Malawi. The null 

finding could be driven by a lack of power, given the relatively low coverage of IPTp. Eisele and colleagues, 

for example, detected an effect of IPTp exposure in a pooled analysis combining data from 25 African 

countries (Eisele et al. 2012). Furthermore, in populations where there is a high level of ITN use, the 

marginal benefit of IPTp may be quite small. 
62 

Exploring the Results: Examples from Bangladesh, Malawi, and Nepal 

Given the generally accepted causal relationships between maternal and delivery care and mortality risk, our 

study’s weak results may be surprising. Three country snapshots, based on experience working in Bangladesh, 

Malawi, and Nepal by one of the authors (Steve Hodgins), provide some context for these unexpected findings. 

Bangladesh 

In Bangladesh, neonatal survival improved significantly between DHS surveys in 1999/2000 and 2011, but our 

study did not identify any coverage factors for which an improvement was associated with the reduction in the 

NMR. In the late 1990s and early 2000s Bangladesh made a considerable effort to promote a birthing center 

model, but most women continued to stay at home and deliver with traditional birth attendants instead of at the 

birthing centers. If they ran into problems, they bypassed birthing centers and delivered with physicians in 

hospitals. As a result, Bangladesh maternal and newborn mortality declined despite little increase in the use of 

skilled birth assistants. Also, in recent years, uptake in institutional deliveries has increased, mostly in the 

private sector. ANC use has remained low, but with some improvement in use of tetanus toxoid, delivered 

through the immunization program. Although use of ANC and delivery services has continued to be low, 

women’s education has improved, and use of family planning has increased substantially. 

Malawi 

In Malawi the significant reduction in neonatal mortality was not associated with the observed scale-up in 

delivery care. Malawi has made noteworthy progress with regard to the proportion of deliveries conducted in a 

health facility. This has been accomplished in part through penalizing women who deliver at home, and those 

who assist in such deliveries. With the shift toward facility deliveries, however, there has not been a concomitant 

increase in health worker staffing in maternity facilities. Midwives still provide most delivery services, with 

limited access to comprehensive emergency obstetric and neonatal care services. There have been 

improvements in several expected drivers of newborn mortality risk. The proportion of mothers with no 

education dropped by almost half over the last decade, to 17 percent. Iron-folate supplement coverage 

improved, but remained at a low 32 percent as of 2010. ITN ownership markedly improved, from 14 percent to 

77 percent. 

Nepal 

In Nepal there were major gains in coverage of maternal and delivery care over the decade, but our study 

found no evidence of improvement in neonatal mortality. Nepal experienced a marked increase in institutional 

deliveries, alongside considerable effort to provide in-service skilled birth assistance training to health workers 

responsible for delivery care. There has also been a substantial increase in iron-folate supplementation, and 

Nepal has done better than most countries in delivering ANC (Hodgins & D'Agostino, 2014). There has also 

been a considerable effort to scale up community-based newborn work. However, when one looks more closely 

at the content, quality, and coverage of care actually delivered at health facilities and in community programs, 

the results have generally been disappointing. 
63 

The measure of household ownership of a mosquito bednet was associated with neonatal survival in the 

endline survey for Malawi, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania, but not in the baseline survey. There are 

several potential explanations for the increase in effect size. First, recall that mosquito bednet ownership 

on the day of interview is a proxy for ownership (and use) during pregnancy. Given the rapid expansion of 

ITN ownership in each country between baseline and endline, we can expect that the variable is a better 

proxy for mosquito bednet ownership during pregnancy in the endline survey than at baseline. Second, the 

indicator is the ownership of “any net;” ITNs are more protective than untreated nets16, providing both 

barrier protection against mosquito vectors as well as direct insecticidal effects, and the composition of 

“any net” changed during this period, from largely untreated to majority insecticide-treated nets. For 

example, in Tanzania, according to the 2004/5 DHS, 49 percent of households that owned any mosquito 

bednet owned an ITN, while according to the 2007/8 HIV/AIDS and Malaria Indicator Survey (HMIS), this 

percentage had increased to 69 percent, and according to the 2009/10 HMIS the percentage had increased 

to 85 percent. Third, the increasing effect of household mosquito bednet ownership could reflect the 

additional community-level benefit of ITNs once overall mosquito bednet coverage reaches a certain 

threshold (Gimnig et al. 2003; Howard et al. 2000). That is, beyond protecting the individual who sleeps 

under an ITN, once ITN coverage is high in a community, ITNs serve to suppress transmission through 

direct insecticidal effects on mosquitos that have already taken blood from a malarious person and therefore 

reduce their ability to transmit malaria to new hosts. 

The relevance of family planning to neonatal survival and the importance of identifying high-risk 

pregnancies 

Several findings regarding the association between socio-demographic characteristics and neonatal 

mortality are worth noting. As expected, short preceding birth intervals are consistently associated with 

elevated risk of neonatal death. Initiatives should continue to emphasize optimal birth spacing (at least two 

to three years) to improve neonatal health outcomes. Multiple births are also associated with a substantially 

higher risk of dying during the first month after birth. Early identification of multiple pregnancies, referral 

for appropriate delivery care, and close monitoring during the neonatal period can prevent most of these 

deaths. Special initiatives should focus on identifying high-risk births with an emphasis on equity of care 

so that, regardless of household resources, precautions are available to all mothers with high-risk births. 

As expected and in agreement with other recent findings (Dickson et al. 2014), in Bangladesh and India we 

found that higher levels of women’s education were associated with lower risk of newborn death. In the 

decomposition analysis, the increases in women’s educational attainment in India between the two surveys 

was associated with a reduction in neonatal mortality of 1.3 deaths per 1,000 live births. Surprisingly, the 

study found no evidence of an association between household wealth and neonatal survival. It is possible 

that the bottom third of the comparative wealth index did not adequately identify the poorest households. 

Another possibility is that differential underreporting of neonatal deaths, with higher frequency of omission 

among poorer and less educated households, is masking a true association between wealth and neonatal 

mortality. Other recent studies have also found weak associations between wealth and child mortality 

(Bishai et al. 2014; Subramanian and Corsi 2014). In a study of 36 countries in sub-Saharan Africa using 

DHS data, Subramanian and Corsi (2014), for example, found that changes in country-level per capita GDP 

were not consistently associated with reductions in child mortality. Similarly, in a country-level 

decomposition of reductions in under-five mortality in 142 low- and middle-income countries, Bishai and 

colleagues (2014) found that growth in GDP per capita accounted for a surprisingly small percentage (11 

percent) of factor-level-related gains in under-five child survival between 1990 and 2010. 

 

16 We use “any net” because we cannot construct household ownership of an ITN in the earlier surveys, as questions 

on treatment of nets were not asked in all households. 
64 

Despite major limitations in our ability to adequately measure the known, life-saving interventions for 

newborns using population-based survey data, the study has several strengths. First, the analysis was 

conducted at the individual level, thus providing a means for triangulation with other recent studies 

examining factors associated with reductions in child mortality at the country level (Bishai et al. 2014). 

Second, the study examines the contribution of interventions to actual observed reductions, rather than 

model-based approaches such as the LiST model, again, providing a source for triangulation and validation 

across methods. Multivariate decomposition provides a powerful tool for identifying factors that have 

contributed to major health outcomes. These methods will become even more useful as new, more precise 

measures of essential newborn interventions become available in survey data. 

In conclusion, between roughly 2000 and 2010 only nine of 18 USAID MCH priority countries showed 

significant improvements in neonatal survival, reinforcing the urgency of international commitment to the 

vision of “a world in which there are no preventable deaths of newborns or stillbirths” (WHO 2014). Study 

findings point to the importance of protecting the mother against malaria during pregnancy and reinforce 

the relevance of family planning to neonatal survival. The study found little evidence that the scale-up of 

other components of maternal and delivery care during this period contributed to observed reductions in 

neonatal mortality in six focus countries. Poor-quality services could in part explain the absence of any 

protective association between skilled birth attendance and neonatal survival, highlighting the need to 

ensure that there is an emphasis on strengthening health systems and improving quality of care alongside 

efforts to increase use of delivery health services. The weak findings also highlight the current lack of data 

on other practices that could impact neonatal mortality, such as immediate newborn care, care of the cord, 

resuscitation, and kangaroo mother care for low birth weight babies. Once indicators such as these become 

widely available in population-based survey data, it will be possible to more precisely evaluate the impact 

of scale-up of essential newborn care. 
65 

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Appendix A1 

Appendix Table A1. Unadjusted and adjusted relative risk of dying during the neonatal period, among children born in the five years 

preceding the surveys, USAID MCH priority countries with significant reductions in NMR 

Bangladesh Ethiopia 

 Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

UNADJUSTED Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 0.80 0.55 1.17 0.68 0.51 0.89 ** 1.32 0.73 2.40 0.75 0.48 1.18 Delivered in a health facility 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 0.76 0.49 1.18 0.64 0.48 0.84 ** 1.24 0.70 2.18 0.69 0.45 1.06 Household owns a mosquito net 

Yes n/a n/a 1.00 n/a 

No 1.42 0.78 2.58 

ADJUSTED FOR SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 0.69 0.46 1.04 0.66 0.48 0.90 ** 1.15 0.56 2.34 0.65 0.40 1.05 Delivered in a health facility 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 0.63 0.38 1.04 0.61 0.45 0.84 ** 1.10 0.57 2.12 0.58 0.37 0.90 * Household owns a mosquito net 

Yes n/a n/a 1.00

No 1.09 0.61 1.95 1.00 1.00 1.00 

(Continued...)

69 
Appendix Table A1. – Continued

India Madagascar 

 Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

UNADJUSTED Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 1.25 1.08 1.44 ** 1.21 1.08 1.36 ** 1.94 1.26 2.98 ** 0.87 0.62 1.21 

Delivered in a health facility Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 1.14 0.99 1.33 1.12 1.00 1.27 1.73 1.08 2.79 * 0.86 0.63 1.18 Household owns a mosquito net 

Yes n/a n/a n/a 1.00

No 1.12 0.80 1.57 

ADJUSTED FOR SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 1.11 0.94 1.31 1.03 0.90 1.18 1.98 1.23 3.20 ** 0.84 0.59 1.19 

Delivered in a health facility 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 0.99 0.83 1.19 0.89 0.78 1.02 1.68 1.03 2.73 * 0.88 0.61 1.25 Household owns a mosquito net Yes n/a n/a 1.00

No 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.13 0.80 1.59 

(Continued...)

70 
Appendix Table A1. – Continued

Malawi Nigeria 

 Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

UNADJUSTED Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 1.37 1.09 1.72 ** 1.22 0.98 1.53 1.35 0.94 1.94 0.94 0.80 1.10 

Delivered in a health facility 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 1.47 1.17 1.85 ** 1.21 0.97 1.52 1.30 0.89 1.89 0.99 0.85 1.15 

Household owns a mosquito net 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 0.85 0.61 1.18 1.26 0.95 1.67 1.03 0.71 1.48 0.96 0.82 1.13 

ADJUSTED FOR SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 1.32 1.04 1.67 * 1.27 1.00 1.61 1.22 0.85 1.77 0.71 0.56 0.89 ** Delivered in a health facility 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00No 1.41 1.11 1.78 ** 1.27 0.99 1.62 1.14 0.76 1.71 0.80 0.65 0.98 * 

Household owns a mosquito net 

Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 0.78 0.57 1.05 ns 1.28 0.97 1.68 1.10 0.75 1.62 1.00 0.86 1.17 

(Continued...)

71 
Appendix Table A1. – Continued

 Rwanda Senegal 

 Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

UNADJUSTED Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00No 1.19 0.92 1.55 1.07 0.80 1.43 1.42 1.04 1.94 * 0.90 0.70 1.16 Delivered in a health facility Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00No 1.17 0.91 1.51 1.03 0.76 1.38 1.36 1.00 1.85 * 0.87 0.65 1.15 Household owns a mosquito net Yes 1.00 1.00 n/a 1.00

No 2.08 1.19 3.66 * 2.23 1.42 3.49 *** 1.01 0.74 1.38 ADJUSTED FOR SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 1.01 0.75 1.35 1.05 0.77 1.44 1.40 1.00 1.96 * 0.83 0.63 1.09 Delivered in a health facility Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00No 0.99 0.74 1.32 1.00 0.73 1.38 1.32 0.95 1.84 0.80 0.58 1.09 Household owns a mosquito net Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00

No 1.51 0.79 2.87 2.31 1.47 3.63 *** 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.93 0.67 1.29 

(Continued...)

72 
Appendix Table A1. – Continued

Mainland Tanzania 

 Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

UNADJUSTED Delivered by a skilled birth attendant 

Yes 1.00 1.00

No 0.75 0.49 1.16 0.82 0.56 1.22 Delivered in a health facility Yes 1.00 1.00No 0.71 0.46 1.11 0.73 0.49 1.09 Household owns a mosquito net Yes 1.00 1.00No 0.92 0.54 1.56 1.61 1.05 2.48 * ADJUSTED FOR SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Delivered by a skilled birth attendant 

Yes 1.00 1.00

No 0.96 0.61 1.53 1.10 0.68 1.79 Delivered in a health facility Yes 1.00 1.00No 0.92 0.58 1.47 0.94 0.58 1.52 Household owns a mosquito net Yes 1.00 1.00

No 1.05 0.57 1.94 1.78 1.16 2.72 ** Note: * indicates p<.05; ** indicates p<.01;*** indicates p<.001. Unlike Tables 4-7, which include countries with significant reductions in NMR within the study population 

(most recent children born), this table includes the 9 countries with significant reductions in NMR among all children born in the five years preceding the survey. The 

73 
adjusted relative risk estimates control for the following characteristics of the household (urban residence and comparative household wealth), the mother (age at child's 

birth, marital status, level of education, and loss of another child under five) and the child (sex, birth interval, birth order, and multiple birth). Malaria risk was included as 

a control in Madagascar, Malawi, and Mainland Tanzania, and caste was included in India. Marital status was not included in the models for Bangladesh or India, since these were ever-married samples. Multiple birth was not included in models for Malawi or Mainland Tanzania, given the small number of multiple births. Baseline surveys were conducted in 1999/2000 in Bangladesh, 2000 in Ethiopia, 1998/9 in India, 1997 in Madagascar, 2000 in Malawi, 2003 in Nigeria, 2000 in Rwanda, 1997 in Senegal, and 1999 in mainland Tanzania. Endline surveys were conducted in 2011 in Bangladesh, 2011 in Ethiopia, 2005/6 in India, 2008/9 in Madagascar, 2010 in Malawi, 2013 in Nigeria, 2010 in Rwanda, 2010/11 in Senegal, and 2010 in mainland Tanzania. 
75 

Appendix Table A1 shows the unadjusted and adjusted relative risk of neonatal mortality among all children 

born in the five years preceding the survey for the three maternal and delivery care intervention variables 

that are available for all births, as opposed to the study population of most recent births. Results are shown 

for the nine countries with a statistically significant reduction in neonatal mortality between the baseline 

and endline surveys among all births in the five years preceding the survey. 

Of the three indicators shown, two are specific to the birth (skilled birth attendance and place of delivery) 

and one is specific to the household (ownership of a mosquito bednet). Comparing the results for the two 

birth-specific variables in this table with the results from Table 5, which are restricted to the study 

population of most recent children born, we find fairly good agreement between the results. In two of the 

six countries included in both tables, the statistically significant adjusted association between skilled birth 

attendance and neonatal mortality becomes non-significant after restricting the sample to the most recent 

children born (Table 5); however, the direction of association remains the same. Similarly, the association 

between place of delivery and neonatal mortality becomes non-significant in one survey after restricting 

the sample to the most recent births. We find a somewhat different pattern with mosquito bednet ownership. 

We can compare the association between mosquito bednet coverage and neonatal mortality in Appendix 

Table A1 and Table 5 for Malawi, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania. In Malawi, a non-significant 

association among all births becomes significant after restricting to the sample of most recent births. In 

Rwanda and mainland Tanzania, the association is statistically significant in both samples, but the 

magnitude of the protective effect of ownership of a mosquito bednet is greater after restricting to most 

recent children born. Household-level variables may be better proxies for the context at the time of the 

child’s birth within the sample of most recent births, as compared with the sample of all births in the five 

years preceding the survey. 

The results for household ownership of a mosquito bednet for Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Senegal are not 

consistent with the results shown for Malawi, Rwanda, and mainland Tanzania. In Ethiopia, Nigeria, and 

Senegal we find no significant association between household ownership of a mosquito bednet and neonatal 

mortality. Several aspects of the malaria context in these three countries could help explain the null findings. 

In Senegal, levels of parasitemia are quite low, seasonal, and disparate throughout the country. In Ethiopia, 

the malaria context is similar—seasonal and varied based on elevation. Furthermore, the malaria control 

strategy in Ethiopia has relied heavily on indoor residual spraying (IRS) in some areas, which may dampen 

the observable impact of using mosquito bednets. In Nigeria, overall coverage of household ownership of 

a mosquito bednet remains lower (64 percent according to the 2013 DHS). 
Appendix A2 

Appendix Table A2. Unadjusted relative risk of dying during the neonatal period, among women's most recent children born in the five 

years preceding the surveys, USAID MCH priority countries with significant reductions in NMR 

Bangladesh India 

Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HOUSEHOLD Place of residence and comparative wealth index1 Urban upper two-thirds CWI 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Urban bottom-third CWI 1.41 0.65 3.07 1.21 0.56 2.61 0.93 0.47 1.84 1.42 0.99 2.04 Rural bottom-third CWI 1.33 0.68 2.60 0.99 0.55 1.80 1.60 1.27 2.01 *** 1.81 1.44 2.28 *** 

Rural upper two-thirds CWI 1.10 0.46 2.59 0.76 0.35 1.67 1.34 1.05 1.70 * 1.32 1.00 1.74 * 

Malaria risk2 None or low (<5% risk) Intermediate (5%-40% risk) High (>40% risk) CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MOTHER Mother's age at child's birth <18 years 2.03 1.39 2.95 *** 0.93 0.51 1.68 1.76 1.39 2.22 *** 1.37 0.98 1.91 

18-34 years 1.00 1.00 1.00 . 1.00 35+ years 0.85 0.41 1.80 1.64 0.90 2.98 1.63 1.23 2.16 *** 1.65 1.23 2.21 *** Mother's marital status Currently in union Not currently in union 

(Continued...)

75 
Appendix Table A2. – Continued

 Bangladesh India 

Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

Mother's educational attainment None 1.06 0.70 1.60 1.13 0.66 1.95 1.56 1.29 1.89 *** 2.04 1.68 2.47 *** Primary 0.83 0.51 1.34 1.49 0.96 2.29 1.09 0.83 1.44 2.00 1.54 2.60 *** 

Secondary or higher 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Previous child to mother died under age five years No 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Yes 1.14 0.75 1.73 1.65 1.03 2.62 * 1.75 1.47 2.08 *** 1.79 1.49 2.15 *** CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CHILD Sex of child Female 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Male 1.14 0.83 1.57 1.40 0.94 2.10 1.02 0.86 1.20 1.06 0.89 1.27 Preceding birth interval 2 years 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 <2 years 2.48 1.27 4.84 ** 3.37 1.35 8.41 ** 1.22 0.95 1.56 1.53 1.18 1.98 ** 

3+ years 0.60 0.30 1.20 1.96 0.88 4.38 0.84 0.67 1.06 0.75 0.58 0.98 * 

First birth 2.38 1.33 4.27 ** 1.97 0.84 4.60 1.22 0.98 1.52 1.38 1.08 1.78 * 

Birth order First and second 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Third 0.53 0.28 0.98 * 0.99 0.60 1.63 0.76 0.61 0.95 * 0.61 0.46 0.81 *** Fourth or higher 0.75 0.48 1.16 0.76 0.44 1.30 0.99 0.83 1.18 1.20 0.99 1.45 Multiple birth Single birth 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Multiple birth 6.55 3.17 13.55 *** 4.94 2.32 10.51 *** 5.74 3.97 8.32 *** 3.25 2.02 5.24 *** 

(Continued...)

76 
Appendix Table A2. – Continued

 Bangladesh India 

Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

RECOMMENDED MATERNAL AND DELIVERY CARE Mother attended 4 or more ANC visits Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 . No 2.27 1.03 5.01 * 0.96 0.58 1.59 1.65 1.35 2.02 *** 1.60 1.33 1.93 *** Number of tetanus injections during pregnancy 2+ 1.00 1.00 1.00 . 1.00 1 1.70 1.11 2.62 * 1.13 0.65 1.95 1.67 1.26 2.22 *** 1.23 0.89 1.70 0 1.63 1.07 2.47 * 1.71 1.08 2.72 * 1.96 1.65 2.32 *** 1.87 1.54 2.28 *** 

Mother had 90+ days of iron and folic acid supplementation3 Yes 1.00 1.00 No 1.54 1.29 1.84 *** 1.42 1.14 1.76 ** Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 . 1.00 No 0.65 0.40 1.06 0.57 0.38 0.86 ** 1.26 1.07 1.48 ** 1.23 1.04 1.46 * 

Delivered in a health facility Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 No 1.16 0.42 3.22 0.94 0.52 1.69 1.46 1.23 1.74 *** 1.55 1.30 1.84 *** Household owns a mosquito bednet Net No net 

(Continued...)

77 
Appendix Table A2. – Continued

 Bangladesh India 

Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

Mother received two doses of SP during pregnancy Yes No 

Madagascar Malawi 

Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HOUSEHOLD Place of residence and comparative wealth index1 Urban upper two-thirds CWI 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Urban bottom-third CWI 1.24 0.54 2.86 1.06 0.38 2.99 1.24 0.36 4.28 0.75 0.28 2.02 

Rural bottom-third CWI 0.75 0.43 1.33 1.02 0.62 1.68 1.40 0.46 4.27 0.81 0.45 1.48 Rural upper two-thirds CWI 0.65 0.23 1.79 1.05 0.44 2.51 3.25 0.74 14.24 0.70 0.32 1.54 Malaria risk2 None or low (<5% risk) Intermediate (5%-40% risk) 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 High (>40% risk) 1.09 0.65 1.80 0.94 0.59 1.49 1.36 1.00 1.86 0.78 0.55 1.10 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MOTHER Mother's age at child's birth <18 years 1.50 0.75 3.00 1.21 0.63 2.33 2.02 1.29 3.17 ** 1.22 0.66 2.24 18-34 years 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 35+ years 1.32 0.78 2.24 1.74 1.08 2.80 * 1.27 0.85 1.89 1.86 1.33 2.60 *** 

(Continued...)

78 
Appendix Table A2. – Continued

 Madagascar Malawi 

Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

Mother's marital status Currently in union 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Not currently in union 1.74 1.10 2.77 * 1.01 0.63 1.61 1.35 0.92 1.99 0.89 0.57 1.40 Mother's educational attainment None 1.46 0.78 2.76 0.71 0.37 1.36 1.01 0.46 2.19 0.96 0.54 1.69 Primary 1.29 0.73 2.27 1.16 0.67 2.00 1.22 0.60 2.48 1.09 0.67 1.77 

Secondary or higher 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Previous child to mother died under age five years No 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Yes 1.28 0.83 1.96 2.10 1.38 3.18 *** 1.39 1.03 1.86 * 1.43 1.05 1.93 * CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CHILD Sex of child Female 1.00 1.00 1.00 . 1.00 . Male 1.41 0.95 2.10 1.32 0.86 2.04 1.59 1.17 2.15 ** 1.60 1.17 2.18 ** Preceding birth interval 2 years 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 <2 years 1.94 1.09 3.43 * 1.34 0.72 2.49 1.74 1.05 2.88 * 2.94 1.70 5.06 *** 

3+ years 0.98 0.54 1.79 1.29 0.75 2.23 1.00 0.63 1.58 2.10 1.33 3.34 ** First birth 1.72 0.98 3.03 1.73 0.98 3.06 1.86 1.24 2.80 ** 3.12 1.93 5.07 *** Birth order First and second 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Third 1.27 0.69 2.34 0.72 0.37 1.40 0.79 0.50 1.26 0.69 0.40 1.17 Fourth or higher 1.01 0.62 1.63 0.94 0.61 1.45 0.82 0.60 1.12 0.93 0.66 1.29 

(Continued...)

79 
Appendix Table A2. – Continued

 Madagascar Malawi 

Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

Multiple birth Single birth 1.00 1.00 . Multiple birth 5.53 2.57 11.90 *** 4.50 1.93 10.48 *** 

RECOMMENDED MATERNAL AND DELIVERY CARE Mother attended 4 or more ANC visits Yes 1.00 . 1.00 . 1.00 1.00 . No 2.46 1.41 4.30 ** 1.02 0.66 1.59 1.48 1.08 2.04 * 1.66 1.17 2.34 ** 

Number of tetanus injections during pregnancy 2+ 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1 1.34 0.65 2.77 0.53 0.25 1.10 1.45 0.97 2.16 1.29 0.89 1.87 0 1.30 0.78 2.18 1.23 0.75 2.00 3.19 2.32 4.40 *** 1.24 0.82 1.89 Mother had 90+ days of iron and folic acid supplementation3 Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 No 1.57 0.65 3.82 1.12 0.65 1.92 1.32 0.92 1.89 Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 No 1.61 0.97 2.70 0.71 0.45 1.13 1.35 1.00 1.83 0.85 0.59 1.24 Delivered in a health facility Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 No 1.33 0.81 2.20 0.84 0.54 1.30 1.46 1.08 1.99 * 0.97 0.66 1.42 

(Continued...)

80 
Appendix Table A2. – Continued

 Madagascar Malawi 

Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

Household owns a mosquito bednet Net 1.00 1.00 1.00 . No net 1.46 0.94 2.27 0.82 0.52 1.28 1.70 1.17 2.47 ** Mother received two doses of SP during pregnancy Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 No 0.79 0.39 1.60 1.49 1.02 2.18 * 1.30 0.96 1.76 

Rwanda Mainland Tanzania 

Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HOUSEHOLD Place of residence and comparative wealth index1 Urban upper two-thirds CWI 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Urban bottom-third CWI 0.87 0.19 4.08 3.98 1.38 11.50 * 1.31 0.29 5.97 0.86 0.32 2.28 

Rural bottom-third CWI 2.69 0.98 7.36 1.84 0.79 4.29 0.59 0.25 1.36 0.50 0.29 0.87 * 

Rural upper two-thirds CWI 2.80 0.34 23.30 1.33 0.43 4.06 0.73 0.13 4.03 0.65 0.27 1.53 Malaria risk2 None or low (<5% risk) 1.00 1.00 Intermediate (5%-40% risk) 0.81 0.36 1.83 0.78 0.43 1.41 High (>40% risk) 1.22 0.39 3.79 1.19 0.55 2.56 

(Continued...)

81 
Appendix Table A2. – Continued

 Rwanda Mainland Tanzania 

Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MOTHER Mother's age at child's birth <18 years 1.70 0.62 4.65 1.23 0.17 8.89 2.81 1.27 6.20 * 1.18 0.39 3.57 

18-34 years 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 

35+ years 1.35 0.95 1.90 1.88 1.23 2.87 ** 1.44 0.68 3.05 1.27 0.77 2.09 

Mother's marital status Currently in union 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Not currently in union 0.95 0.62 1.46 0.93 0.53 1.66 2.16 0.97 4.83 2.25 1.35 3.73 ** Mother's educational attainment None 2.92 1.16 7.34 * 1.52 0.62 3.74 0.57 0.13 2.43 0.51 0.17 1.52 Primary 1.84 0.75 4.49 1.30 0.58 2.91 0.83 0.21 3.32 0.81 0.30 2.18 

Secondary or higher 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Previous child to mother died under age five years No 1.00 1.00 . 1.00 1.00 Yes 1.25 0.88 1.77 2.10 1.37 3.23 *** 1.01 0.48 2.14 0.81 0.47 1.41 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CHILD Sex of child Female 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 . Male 1.68 1.16 2.43 ** 1.43 0.91 2.27 1.69 0.82 3.50 1.93 1.20 3.12 ** 

(Continued...)

82 
Appendix Table A2. – Continued

 Rwanda Mainland Tanzania 

Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

Preceding birth interval 2 years 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 <2 years 1.46 0.85 2.50 3.43 1.76 6.67 *** 0.87 0.23 3.28 1.75 0.69 4.46 

3+ years 1.10 0.68 1.79 1.56 0.83 2.95 1.26 0.41 3.90 2.01 1.04 3.87 * First birth 1.27 0.76 2.12 1.42 0.70 2.89 2.24 0.87 5.80 2.50 1.19 5.27 * 

Birth order First and second 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Third 0.60 0.32 1.15 0.70 0.33 1.49 0.92 0.32 2.69 0.34 0.14 0.81 * 

Fourth or higher 1.04 0.74 1.46 1.47 0.93 2.32 0.40 0.19 0.82 * 0.60 0.37 0.97 * 

Multiple birth Single birth 1.00 1.00 Multiple birth 7.46 4.36 12.77 *** 6.32 3.07 12.99 *** 

RECOMMENDED MATERNAL AND DELIVERY CARE Mother attended 4 or more ANC visits Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 No 1.67 0.83 3.36 1.51 0.91 2.49 1.96 0.95 4.04 1.19 0.74 1.93 Number of tetanus injections during pregnancy 2+ 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1 1.14 0.75 1.72 0.76 0.44 1.32 0.91 0.31 2.67 0.91 0.49 1.67 0 1.45 0.95 2.22 1.38 0.83 2.31 1.08 0.52 2.26 1.11 0.65 1.90 Mother had 90+ days of iron and folic acid supplementation3 Yes 1.00 No 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.81 0.25 2.64 

(Continued...)

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Appendix Table A2. – Continued

 Rwanda Mainland Tanzania 

Baseline Endline Baseline Endline 

RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig RR LB UB sig 

Delivered by a skilled birth attendant Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 No 1.08 0.72 1.63 0.96 0.58 1.57 0.62 0.36 1.07 0.61 0.37 1.00 * 

Delivered in a health facility Yes 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 No 1.02 0.68 1.52 0.98 0.60 1.60 0.64 0.38 1.11 0.52 0.31 0.87 * 

Household owns a mosquito bednet Net 1.00 1.00 . 1.00 1.00 . No net 4.92 1.16 20.80 * 3.16 1.88 5.32 *** 0.85 0.41 1.77 2.82 1.68 4.75 *** Mother received two doses of SP during pregnancy Yes 1.00 No 1.51 0.83 2.73 Note: * indicates p<.05; ** indicates p<.01;*** indicates p<.001. The table presents unadjusted relative risk (uRR) estimates, which compare the probability of 

dying in one group relative to the probability of dying in the reference group. Baseline surveys were conducted in 1999/2000 in Bangladesh, 1998/9 in India, 1997 in Madagascar, 2000 in Malawi, 2000 in Rwanda, and 1999 in mainland Tanzania. Endline surveys were conducted in 2011 in Bangladesh, 2005/6 in India, 2008/9 in Madagascar, 2010 in Malawi, 2010 in Rwanda, and 2010 in mainland Tanzania. 

1 The DHS-constructed comparative wealth index uses a fixed baseline (the 2002 Vietnam DHS) enabling measurement of improvements in wealth over time and comparison of absolute wealth across country. This four-level indicator measures the effect of being in the bottom comparative wealth third separately in urban 

and rural households. Urban upper-two thirds is used as the reference. 2 This indicator has three levels: no/low, intermediate, and high risk. In low risk areas, the annual averaged plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in 2-10 

year olds is likely to be lower than 5%. In intermediate risk areas, plasmodium falciparum transmission is likely to be between 5%-50%. In high risk areas, 

transmission is likely to exceed 40%. Note that in Malawi, the population falls in just intermediate and high risk areas. In Madagascar, due to the small number of 

cases in the no/low risk category in the 2008 survey, no/low risk was collapsed with intermediate risk. 3 This indicator was calculated for Rwanda but due to the low prevalence of coverage of iron supplementation, the relative risk could not be calculated. 

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Appendix A3 

Appendix Figure A3. Correlation between the change in NMR and the change in skilled birth 

attendance in 18 high-burden countries for maternal and newborn mortality 

Note: This figure includes data from the following 18 high-burden countries for maternal and newborn mortality: Cote 

d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, 

Zambia, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Indonesia. Data were extracted from MEASURE DHS STATcompiler on 

January 18, 2013. 

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Change in skilled birth attendance (3 yr)

Change in neonatal mortality rate