Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

December 2014 

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Gulf of Maine Region

December 2014

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=F2BDD611

#regionalclimateoutlooks

 Gulf of Maine Significant Events - for September–November 2014

Precipitation Sea Surface Temperatures

Regional Climate Overview - for September–November 2014

From late September through mid-October, Maine, New Hampshire, and 

Massachusetts were abnormally dry, with some parts of Massachusetts even 

reaching moderate drought status. U.S. Geological Survey data indicated that 

several waterways were at record or near-record low levels, with streamflows 

at 10% of normal or less. Water conservation alerts were issued due to low 

reservoirs, and crops and pastures needed to be irrigated due to dry soil 

conditions. Parts of the Maritimes were also dry, with most rivers and streams 

in New Brunswick having low water levels.

A slow-moving coastal low moved through the region beginning October 21, 

with a second low developing over the region on October 26. This resulted 

in a prolonged period of very heavy rain and strong winds in some locations. 

Winds gusted to 90 km/h (49 mph), with a peak of 97 km/h (60 mph) in coastal 

Massachusetts. Rainfall totals for the period topped 100 mm (4 in) in many 

areas, with highest amounts of up to 210 mm (8 in) in New Brunswick and 

Nova Scotia. The winds downed trees and power lines and localized flooding 

was reported. The rain helped ease some of the dryness in parts of the U.S.

Three Nor’easters hit the region in November. On November 1–2, a Nor’easter 

brought up to 53 cm (21 in) of snow, 66 mm (3 in) of rain, and wind gusts to 

98 km/h (61 mph). Around 154,000 customers lost power across the region, 

with outages lasting several days. Caribou, ME, had its earliest snowfall that 

was greater than 25 cm (10 in), and some New Brunswick schools had their 

earliest snow-related closures in 20 years. The storm on November 7 brought 

light snow, rain, and gusty winds to the Maritimes and Maine. The Nor’easter 

on November 26–27 brought up to 46 cm (18 in) of snow, 50–100 mm (2–4 in) 

of rain, and wind gusts to 76 km/h (47 mph). More than 300,000 customers 

in New England and 48,750 in New Brunswick lost power. The storm caused 

travel problems the day before U.S. Thanksgiving.

Warm sea surface temperature anomalies 

that were present throughout most of the 

region in the summer persisted in the fall, 

strengthened, and spread to include the 

entire Gulf of Maine. These warm anomalies 

were weaker in September, but strengthened 

in October and November. Warm anomalies 

were more than 2°C (3.6°F) above the 30-year 

average for this period over much of the 

southern Scotian Shelf and the deeper basins 

of the Gulf of Maine. In the Bay of Fundy and 

throughout the coastal Gulf of Maine, warm 

anomalies of more than 1°C (1.8°F) were 

present. The weakest warm anomalies, around 

0.5°C (0.9°F), were over the Georges Bank 

area. 

Fall temperatures (averaged over September, 

October, and November) were warmer 

than normal for most of the region, with 

temperatures ranging from near normal 

to 2°C (3.6°F) above normal. September 

temperatures ranged from near normal to 

2°C (3.6°F) above normal, with the warmest 

areas in eastern New Brunswick. The region 

was quite warm in October, with temperatures 

generally 1°C (1.8°F) to 4°C (7.2°F) above 

normal. The three states ranked this October 

among their top 13 warmest. November 

temperatures varied. New Brunswick and 

the three states saw temperatures from near 

normal to 2°C (3.6°F) below normal, but Nova 

Scotia saw temperatures from near normal to 

2°C (3.6°F) above normal. 

Sea surface temperature anomalies based on 1985–2014. 

Mean SST anomalies from NOAA AVHRR data. Credit: 

University of Maine School of Marine Sciences and NERACOOS

Temperature

In November, three Nor’easters 

brought heavy snow and rain, along 

with gusty winds, to the region. 

November was snowier than normal regionwide. New Brunswick 

climate sites had two to five times the normal snowfall, and some U.S. 

sites ranked this November among their top 20 snowiest. 

November 30 marked the end of the 2014 hurricane season. Of the 

eight named storms in the Atlantic basin, six became hurricanes, with 

two of those becoming major hurricanes. An average hurricane season 

has 12 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes and three of 

those becoming major hurricanes. Four storms entered the Canadian 

Hurricane Centre response zone, which is near average. Hurricane 

Arthur (in July) was the only landfalling tropical system, causing the 

most costly power disruption in New Brunswick Power’s history.

An ongoing lack of rain led to 

moderate drought in southeastern 

Massachusetts from late 

September through mid-October. 

Other parts of the region also 

experienced dry conditions. 

Fall precipitation (accumulated during 

September, October, and November) ranged 

from 50% of normal in parts of Maine and New 

Hampshire up to 175% of normal in parts of 

Nova Scotia. September was quite dry. Most of 

the region saw 25–75% of normal precipitation, 

but parts of Maine and Massachusetts saw 

less than 25%. In October, precipitation ranged 

from near normal to 200% of normal in the 

states and New Brunswick. In Nova Scotia, 

precipitation ranged from 50% of normal in 

northern and eastern areas up to 175% of 

normal in western and southern areas. The 

three states ranked this September among 

their top seven driest and this October among 

their top 20 wettest. November was quite wet 

in the Maritimes, coastal Massachusetts, and 

Downeast Maine, with up to 225% of normal. 

However, New Hampshire and most of Maine 

saw 50–90% of normal. 

Departure from Normal

Temperature and precipitation normals based on 1981–2010. 

Canada and ocean precip data: Canadian Precipitation Analysis.

U.S. precip data: interpolated station data.

Percent of Normal Departure from Normal

Cod and northern 

shrimp populations 

reached record low 

levels. See Regional 

Impacts on the next 

page for details.
Regional Impacts - for September–November 2014

Regional Outlook - for Winter 2014-15 Gulf of Maine Region Partners

Environment Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

NOAA Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

Northeast River Forecast Center

www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Regional Climate Services

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/rcsd

Gulf of Maine Research Institute

www.gmri.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region

www.cinar.org

Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment, Climate 

Network

www.gulfofmaine.org/climatenetwork

Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal and Ocean 

Systems

www.neracoos.org

University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences

www.umaine.edu/marine

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Contacts

NOAA:

Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Samantha Borisoff (samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu)

Environment Canada:

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

819-997-2800 (long-distance charges apply)

enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca 

To receive this publication every quarter, sign up at http://

www.gulfofmaine.org/2/climate-network-climate-outlook.

Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

December 2014 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=F2BDD611

Temperature

While sea surface temperatures in the 

equatorial Pacific Ocean became increasingly 

warm in November, ENSO-neutral conditions 

continued as of early December. A clear link 

between expected atmospheric conditions 

during El Niño and the warm waters has not 

been established. However, computer models 

continue to indicate the emergence of a 

weak El Niño event. The Climate Prediction 

Center says there is a 65% chance of El Niño 

during winter and lasting through spring 2015. 

(Sources: Climate Prediction Center El Niño forecast 

and El Niño blog) 

For December 

through February, 

Environment 

Canada is predicting an increased chance of 

above-normal temperatures for Nova Scotia. 

Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures 

off the Atlantic coast are expected to help 

maintain warm conditions on land. 

Environment Canada is calling for an increased 

chance of near-normal temperatures for the 

northern half of New Brunswick, with equal 

chances of below-, near-, or above-normal 

temperatures in the rest of the province. 

Ocean Conditions

The trend towards earlier arrival of spring-like temperatures continued, with 2014 seeing one of the 

earliest springs in the last 30 years (top left figure). Projections indicate that over the next 75 years springlike temperatures will occur three to four weeks earlier and extend later into the fall—increasing the 

summer season by about two months. (Source: Northeast Fisheries Science Center)

With the current fishable stock being the smallest on record, the northern shrimp season was cancelled 

for a second consecutive year. The Gulf of Maine cod stock is also at record low levels. Emergency 

measures were implemented in early November to close more fishing grounds, limit cod catches, and ban 

recreational cod fishing for at least six months. The Gulf of Maine is near the southern limit for both cod 

and shrimp. Warmer waters have been implicated in the decline in shrimp and have likely compounded the 

management challenges for cod. However, lobster populations in the Bay of Fundy are booming, possibly 

due to warmer waters and a decrease in cod, which eat young lobster. (Sources: CBC News, November 19 and 

Bangor Daily News, November 6 and November 10)

The chlorophyll seasonal cycle was atypical in 2014, with the smallest spring (April) and highest summer 

(July) concentrations on record, followed by a late and large fall increase (bottom left figure). Chlorophyll 

concentrations measure phytoplankton biomass, the microscopic plants that form the base of the marine 

food web. Major seasonal fluctuations can affect food availability for species whose life cycles are tuned to 

more normal seasonal cycles. (Source: Satellite Oceanography Data Lab at University of Maine) 

Gulf of Maine daily mean sea surface 

temperature (red line) relative to mean (black 

line), standard deviation (dark purple), and 

range (light purple). This shows an early spring, 

a warm summer, and delayed fall cooling. (Gulf 

of Maine Research Institute) 

A

Probability of above-normal

Insects and Health

Warmer temperatures and early spring snow melt have helped winter tick populations explode in New 

England. As a result, tick-related moose deaths have increased, and moose populations have declined. 

New Hampshire’s moose population “has declined as much as 40% in some areas during the past three 

years” in part due to winter ticks. New Hampshire issued 55% fewer moose hunting permits this year, and 

Maine issued 25% fewer. However, New Brunswick’s moose population is healthy, with the hunting season 

extended by two days and the quota increased. Deer ticks are also thriving in New England, bringing an 

increase in tick-transmitted diseases to humans. In Maine, a record number of residents were infected with 

anaplasmosis in 2014, and 2013 was a record year for Lyme disease. Infected ticks are also established 

in parts of southern New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. (Sources: National Wildlife Federation and Portland Press 

Herald, December 9) 

El Niño 

Precipitation

Environment Canada and NOAA’s Climate 

Prediction Center are both predicting equal 

chances of above-, near-, or below-normal 

precipitation from December through 

February for most of the region. However, 

an increased chance of above-normal 

precipitation is forecast for southeastern 

Massachusetts based on computer models 

and the potential development of El Niño.

40

Environment Canada map (left) produced on November 

30. Climate Prediction Center map (right) produced on 

November 20.

33

NOAA’s Climate 

Prediction Center is forecasting an increased 

chance of above-normal temperatures for 

Maine and northern New Hampshire from 

December through February. Long-term trends 

indicate above-normal temperatures are most 

likely. Equal chances of below-, near-, or abovenormal temperatures are predicted elsewhere. 

A: Above-normal

EC: Equal chances of 

above-, near, or belownormal 

33/40: Probability of 

above-normal

EC

Gulf of Maine monthly mean chlorophyll 

concentrations from satellite data for 

2003–2013 (black lines) and 2014 (red line). 

(University of Maine School of Marine Sciences)