OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS                        June 1, 1998
May 1998, AES-18
               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the
Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 
20036-5831. This release contains only the text of the report -- tables and
graphics are not included.

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FISCAL 1998 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST REDUCED TO $55 BILLION

The forecast for fiscal year 1998 U.S. agricultural exports is
lowered to $55 billion, $1 billion less than forecast in
February. The primary reason for the decrease is increased export
competition for corn and wheat.

Since February, U.S. corn exports are lowered 4 million tons to
37.5 million and the expected value dropped to $4.3 billion.
Wheat export volume and prices also are lowered, reducing
expected wheat and flour exports to $4.1 billion and 26.5 million
tons. Soybean exports are now projected at $6.5 billion, 3
percent less than February, with quantity down 4 percent.
Stronger prices and higher export volume for most oilseed
products more than offset the decline for soybeans.

Continued poor economic performance and increased competition
slowed exports to Asia. The export forecast for Western Europe is
also lowered because of increased competition. In contrast,
shipments to Mexico and Canada are stronger than anticipated, and
their forecasts are raised.

Fiscal 1998 U.S. agricultural import projections remain unchanged
at $38 billion. Vegetables now exceed coffee as the leading and
fastest growing import. The export surplus is now forecast at $17
billion, 20 percent less than in 1997 and the smallest since
fiscal 1991.

This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 12, 1998,
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1998
                   -- Year ending September 30 --
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Item                1994    1995    1996    1997    Forecast 1998
                                                      Feb.  May
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                --Billion dollars--
Exports             43.9    54.6    59.8    57.3     56.0    55.0

Imports             26.6    29.9    32.6    35.8     38.0    38.0

Trade balance       17.3    24.7    27.2    21.5     18.0    17.0

                                --Million metric tons --
Export volume      127.5   169.7   158.4   147.3    149.2   142.2
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 12, 1998, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.  Approved by the World 
Agricultural Outlook Board and released May 29, 1998.

Contents

Fiscal 1998 Agricultural Exports
Commodity Highlights
Economic Outlook
Regional Highlights
U.S. Agricultural Export Programs
Import Highlights

Tables

Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 1994-98
Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1997-98
Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1997-98
Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by region, 1997-98
Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by commodity, 1997-98
Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports:  Volume by commodity, 1997-98
Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by region, 1997-98

Coordinator (ERS):

Carolyn Whitton (202)694-5287
Leader, Trade Data Analysis
Trade Analysis Branch
Market & Trade Economics Div.
Economic Research Service(ERS)

Coordinator (FAS):

Ernest Carter (202) 720-2922
Special Assistant
Office of Deputy Administrator
Commodity and Marketing Programs
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)

U.S. Department of Agriculture
Washington, D.C. 20250

The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports are based on
information provided by the Market & Trade Economics Division of the ERS and
the Commodity Divisions of FAS. Editorial support is furnished by Martha R.
Evans, Information Services Division, ERS. All telephones are area code 202.

Commodity Information--ERS: Karen Ackerman (Export Programs, 694-5264); Ed
Allen (Wheat/Coarse Grain, 694-5288); Mark Ash (Oilseeds, 694-5289); Nathan
Childs (Rice, 694-5292); Mark Gehlhar (Imports, 694-5273); Shayle Shagam (Beef,
694-5186); Mildred Haley (Pork, 694-5176); Dave Harvey (Poultry, 694-5177);
Gary Lucier (Horticulture, 694-5253); Steve MacDonald (Cotton, 694-5305); Stacey
Rosen (Food Aid, 694-5164); Andy Jerardo (Macroeconomic projections 694-5323).

Commodity Information--FAS:  Peter Burr (Tobacco, & Seeds 720-9497); Joel
Greene (Dairy & Livestock 720-6553); Alan Holz (Oilseeds, 720-0143); Linda
Kotschwar (Grains and Feeds, 690-1147); Dee Linse (Export Programs, 720-9847);
Ron Lord (Cotton, 720-9510); Nancy Morgan (Poultry, 720-1372); Debra Pumphrey
(Horticultural and Tropical Products, 720-8899).

Regional information, ERS:  Chris Bolling (Brazil, 694-5212); Nancy Cochrane
(East Europe, 694-5143); Hunter Colby (China, 694-5215); Fred Crook (Hong Kong,
694-5217); John Dyck (Japan & South Korea, 694-5221); Anwarul Hoque (South
Asia, 694-5222); Sophia Wu Huang (Taiwan, 694-5225); Susan Leetma (European
Union, 694-5153); Michael Kurtzig (North Africa and the Middle East, 694-5152);
Bill Liefert (New Independent States, 694-5156); John Link (Mexico, 694-5228);
Suchada Langley (Canada, 694-5227); Gary Vocke (Southeast Asia, 694-5241).

The Outlook For Agricultural Exports is published in February, May, August, and
December. The next issue will be released Aug. 28, 1998. The summary may be
accessed electronically; call (202) 694-5050.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its
programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender,
religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital
or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs). Persons
with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's
Target Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil
Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW,
Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call (202) 720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an
equal opportunity provider and employer.

Commodity Highlights

The forecast for fiscal year 1998 exports of U.S. wheat and flour is reduced 2
million tons and $300 million from the February forecast to 26.5 million tons
valued at $4.1 billion. The reduced outlook for wheat export volume and a
slight reduction in wheat export prices reflect weak global imports and strong
competition, especially from the European Union (EU). Large 1998/99 wheat crops
will limit needs in a number of major importing countries.

The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. coarse grain exports is reduced 4.2 million
tons and $600 million from February's forecast to 43.7 million tons valued at
$5 billion. This downward revision is mainly due to a lower volume and a
slightly reduced unit value for corn exports. The reduced outlook for U.S. corn
exports, down 4 million tons and $600 million since February to 37.5 million
tons valued at $4.3 billion, is mainly the result of increased competition from
Argentina and China. Since February, forecasts for Argentina's and China's corn
exports in market year 1997/98 were raised 1 million tons each, to 13 million
and 6 million, respectively.

Forecast 1998 U.S. rice exports are raised 100,000 tons to 2.8 million; but
export value remains unchanged at $1 billion because of a higher proportion of
rough rice in total rice exports. Latin American demand for lower-valued rough
rice has increased.

The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. oilseed and product exports is raised $400
million to $11.6 billion, while overall volume remains largely unchanged, up
only 100,000 tons to 36.8 million tons. Stronger prices for soybeans, soybean
meal and oil, and other vegetable oils, and higher export volume for most
oilseed products more than offset a downward revision in soybean export volume.
U.S. soybean exports are reduced 1.1 million tons to 24.8 million tons, the
result of larger than previously expected record 1997/98 South American soybean
exports. At the same time, expanding world protein meal demand and reduced palm
oil output support further gains in U.S. meal and oil shipments and prices.
Soybean meal and oil exports are increased 1.1 million tons and $500 million to
a record 9 million tons valued at $2.6 billion. Price and volume forecasts for
other major vegetable oils, namely corn and sunflower oil, are also increased.

The fiscal 1998 export forecast for U.S. cotton and linters is unchanged at 1.6
million tons. GSM-102 support and Cotton Program payments have helped maintain
strong sales thus far in 1998. However, somewhat weaker prices lower the export
value $100 million to $2.6 billion. Increased export competition, primarily
from China, and weakness in Asian demand has put downward pressure on world
prices.

The forecast for fiscal 1998 U.S. tobacco exports remain largely unchanged at
210,000 tons, but lower prices result in a $200-million decrease to $1.4
billion. Lower prices are the result of increased world production and stocks.

The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy
products is raised $100 million from the February forecast to $11.4 billion.
Gains in export volumes for red meats and animal fats offset downward revisions
in red meat and poultry meat prices. The export forecast for beef, pork, and
variety meats is increased 100,000 tons to 1.5 million tons due to an increase
in the pace of sales to 

Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1997-1998
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                               October-March   Fiscal     Fiscal 1998
      Commodity                1997    1998    1997        Forecast  
                                                          Feb.    May
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/           8.913   7.607    16.466    15.3     14.3
  Wheat & flour               1.960   2.088     4.263     4.4      4.1
  Rice                        0.578   0.641     0.962     1.0      1.0
  Coarse grains 2/            4.190   2.787     6.921     5.6      5.0
    Corn                      3.732   2.279     6.107     4.9      4.3
  Feeds and fodders           1.362   1.262     2.673     2.6      2.5

Oilseeds and products         7.414   8.005    11.437    11.2     11.6
  Soybeans                    4.961   4.972     6.950     6.7      6.5
  Soybean meal                1.113   1.373     1.74     61.4      1.8
  Soybean oil                 0.341   0.546     0.516     0.7      0.8

Livestock products            3.721   3.948     7.706     7.5      7.8
  Beef, pork & variety meats  1.842   2.040     3.977     4.0      4.0
  Hides & skins, incl. furs   0.860   0.726     1.693     1.5      1.5

Poultry & products            1.494   1.388     2.872     2.9      2.7
  Poultry meat                1.311   1.193     2.516      NA      2.3
Dairy products                0.360   0.476     0.842     0.9      0.9
Tobacco, unmanufactured       0.893   0.756     1.612     1.6      1.4
Cotton & linters              1.547   1.516     2.737     2.7      2.6
Seeds                         0.596   0.572     0.924     0.9      0.9
Horticultural products        5.308   5.202    10.598    10.8     10.6
  Fruits & preparations       1.579   1.524     3.412     3.3      3.3
  Vegetables & preparations   1.302   1.411     2.655     2.8      2.8
  Tree nuts & preparations    0.776   0.706     1.283     1.2      1.2
Sugar, tropical, and other    0.994   1.004     2.064     2.2      2.2

    Total 3/                 31.240  30.474    57.258    56.0     55.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats,
and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. NA = not available; first
estimate made in May 1998.

Japan and strong sales to Mexico. However, lower prices due to large domestic
supplies and relatively weak Asian demand leave export value unchanged
at $4 billion. Animal fat exports are raised 250,000 tons and $100 million to
1.1 million tons valued at $560 million as relatively high prices for palm
stearin boost foreign demand and prices for animal fats. Poultry meat export
volume remains unchanged at 2.6 million tons, but weaker prices reduce export
value $200 million to $2.3 billion. Lower poultry meat prices are the result of
large domestic meat supplies and downward pressures on sales prices to Russia.
Despite slow sales to Korea, the U.S. export forecast for hides and skins is
unchanged at $1.5 billion.

The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. horticultural exports is lowered $200 million
from the February forecast to $10.6 billion. If this revised forecast is
realized, actual horticultural product export value in 1998 will roughly equal
1997 sales, and this would be the first time in more than a decade an annual
record is not achieved. However, export volume is expected to rise in 1998.
Lower prices for tree nuts, citrus, and essential oils coupled with a strong
U.S. dollar and a weak Japanese economy continue to hamper export growth in
1998.

Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1997-98
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                              October-March    Fiscal    Fiscal 1998
      Commodity                1997   1998      1997       Forecast
                                                        Feb.   May
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                               --Million metric tons--
Wheat                       10.703   12.962    24.531   28.0    26.0
Wheat flour                  0.256    0.247     0.504    0.5     0.5
Rice                         1.501    1.765     2.564    2.7     2.8
Coarse grains 1/             0.746   23.215    53.027   47.9    43.7
   Corn                     27.284   18.955    46.579   41.5    37.5
Feeds & fodders              6.225    5.893    12.259   12.7    11.7
Oilseeds and products       23.681   26.566    33.942   36.7    36.8
  Soybeans                  17.641   18.644    24.027   25.9    24.8
  Soybean meal               4.109    5.527     6.345    6.8     7.7
  Soybean oil                0.621    0.883     0.924    1.1     1.3
Beef, pork & variety meats   0.628    0.770     1.356    1.4     1.5
Poultry meat                 1.258    1.350     2.553    2.6     2.6
Animal fats                  0.477    0.600     1.028    0.9     1.1
Cotton & linters             0.906    0.934     1.648    1.6     1.6
Horticultural products       3.681    3.756     7.539    7.7     7.7
Other                        1.989    1.741     6.366    6.5     6.2
  Total agriculture         83.332   81.172   147.317  149.2   142.2
  Major bulk products 2/    61.497   57.520   105.797  106.1    98.9
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice,
coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.

On the positive side, U.S. horticultural product exports to Canada and Mexico
remain strong, up 10 and 16 percent, respectively, during the first half of
fiscal 1998.

Economic Outlook

Macroeconomic conditions in the major U.S. agricultural export markets are
expected to be generally worse in 1998 than in 1997. Furthermore, the dollar's
strength has made U.S. exports more expensive in foreign markets. The continued
financial crisis in Asia has led to recession in some countries and weaker
import demand.

In the developed economies, Japan likely will sink into a recession in 1998,
the first since 1974. The Japanese Government has been unable to revive
domestic demand and the economy continues to suffer from a poorly performing
financial sector. Canada will see slightly slower Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
growth than in 1997, but should remain healthy at above 3 percent. The European
Union, by comparison, is projected to improve overall growth closer to 3
percent as gross fixed investment significantly expands from 1997 levels. But
as European currencies continue their depreciation against the dollar, trade
competitiveness versus the United States should increase. The United Kingdom,
however, will lose some growth momentum as industrial production shrinks and
the current account balance turns negative.

Europe's inflation rates and fiscal deficits have declined, allowing the start
of the monetary unification process. This suggests greater exchange rate
stability and continued conservative monetary and fiscal policies. A unified
exchange rate against the dollar would lower transaction costs, as well as
remove the costs of supporting weaker currencies. The UK, Denmark, and Sweden
have decided not to take part in the monetary union at this time, which can
mean losing some gains in trade if the Euro proves a stable currency.

In the developing and transition countries, growth prospects are somewhat
weaker than expected a few months ago. Markets in Asia are presently in varying
degrees of recession or slowdowns coupled with generally much reduced
purchasing power. Assuming no additional problems in the region, the
substantial shrinking of intra-regional trade and the costly process of
recapitalizing financial institutions will make recovery more difficult.

While the economies of China and Taiwan continue to expand, growth will be
significantly lower than in 1997. China and Taiwan's industrial production
decelerated early in 1998 because of weaker domestic markets and much lower
import demand in Japan and neighboring Asian export markets. Moreover, China's
currency has lost export price competitiveness relative to Asian competitors by
maintaining its peg to the U.S. dollar.

In contrast to Asia, Latin America's economies are still growing, but at a
slower pace than last year. Growth will slow in Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil.
Mexico's growth will decelerate from 1997's heady 7 percent rate to 4.5 percent
in 1998 as domestic demand slows and the current account deficit worsens.

The transition economies of Eastern Europe and parts of Africa and the Middle
East also are expected to show improved growth. However, the New Independent
States' expected GDP growth of less than 1 percent in 1998 is only a marginal
addition to overall world demand. 

A major factor influencing the price competitiveness of U.S. agricultural
exports is the effective exchange value of the dollar. In 1995 the dollar fell
to its lowest average level since the early 1980s. Since that low, the dollar
has so far gained almost 13 percent in inflation-adjusted value against other
currencies as returns on U.S. financial assets have soared. Combining this
deterioration in U.S. price competitiveness with much weaker growth or
recession in key markets of Japan and East and Southeast Asia means weaker
prospects for U.S. agricultural export growth. While import demand from Europe
should reflect the area's healthier conditions, export gains, already pressured
by export competition, will be further hampered by the dollar's strength
relative to the EU currencies.

Regional Highlights

Some revisions are made in forecast regional exports since February and most of
the change is in Asia and Europe. Forecast U.S. exports to Asia are dropped
$1.2 billion since February to $20.3 billion, 15 percent less than in fiscal
1997. Another $500 million is taken out of expected exports to Western Europe
which are now projected 4 percent under 1997, at $9 billion.

Exports to Japan are reduced by $500 million since February's forecast, and are
down year-to-year nearly 8.5 percent to $9.8 billion for 1998. Exports of hides
and skins and corn account for much of the drop. In the year to date, corn is
down 428,000 tons, while the number of bovine hides exported fell 457,000. But
contrary to expectations, the quantity of U.S. exports of meats to Japan has
risen by 22 percent over the first 6 months of 1997.

The poor economic conditions in South Korea account for another $400 million
since February. Fiscal 1998 exports to South Korea are now forecast at just $2
billion, 40 percent below 1997. Through March, U.S. exports of hides and skins
to South Korea declined 47 percent from the same period of the year before,
while exports of grains dropped 60 percent. Corn exports to South Korea are
nearly 3 million tons less than in the first 6 months of 1997, while bovine
hide exports dropped by 1.7 million hides.

This forecast adds several large U.S. trading partners in Southeast Asia which
have been experiencing financial difficulties recently-- Thailand, Indonesia,
and Malaysia. Based on shipments to date, Malaysia and Indonesia show the
steepest declines, with exports to date and

Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1997-98
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                             October-March  Fiscal   Fiscal 1998
    Region                    1997   1998    1997     Forecast
                                                      Feb.  May
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     --Billion dollars--
Asia                         13.339  11.309   23.847   21.5   20.3
  Japan                       5.635   5.189   10.705   10.3    9.8  
  China                       1.223   1.113    1.774    1.6    1.6
  Hong Kong                   0.808   0.848    1.640    1.7    1.7
  Taiwan                      1.448   1.267    2.588    2.4    2.3
  South Korea                 1.983   1.196    3.287    2.4    2.0
  Southeast Asia              1.849   1.313    3.123    2.3    2.2
    Indonesia                 0.449   0.310    0.768     NA    0.5 
    Philippines               0.455   0.352    0.898    0.8    0.7
    Malaysia                  0.385   0.191    0.580     NA    0.3
    Thailand                  0.396   0.324    0.550     NA    0.4  
  South Asia                  0.393   0.378    0.728    0.8    0.7
Western Hemisphere            8.281   9.496   16.592   17.7   18.4   
  Canada                      3.197   3.464    6.620    6.9    7.0
  Mexico                      2.529   3.042    5.077    5.8    6.0
  Brazil                      0.271   0.338    0.461    0.5    0.5
  Venezuela                   0.281   0.294    0.548    0.6    0.6
  Other Latin America         2.003   2.357    3.886    3.9    4.3   
Western Europe                5.793   5.602    9.402    9.5    9.0
  European Union              5.550   5.400    8.785    8.8    8.5
Central and Eastern Europe    0.209   0.192    0.301    0.3    0.3
New Independent States 1/     0.872   0.788    1.593    1.2    1.2
  Russia                      0.687   0.630    1.281    1.0    1.0
Middle East                   1.233   1.288    2.506    2.5    2.6
  Turkey                      0.345   0.313    0.728     NA    0.6
  Saudi Arabia                0.284   0.314    0.589    0.6    0.6
Africa                        0.986   1.261    2.231    2.3    2.3
  North Africa                0.589   0.918    1.457    1.5    1.6
    Egypt                     0.366   0.570    0.918    0.9    1.0
  Sub-Saharan Africa          0.398   0.343    0.774    0.8    0.7
Oceania                       0.248   0.274    0.534    0.6    0.6
     Total 2/                31.241  30.475   57.258   56.0   55.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = not available; first estimate made in May 1998.
1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU), including
the Baltic Republics. 2/ Totals include transshipments through Canada, but
transshipments are not distributed by country as previously.

projections for the year down about 50 percent and more than 30 percent,
respectively, from 1997. Declines in exports to Thailand and the Philippines so
far have been somewhat less severe, and exports are projected down more than 20
percent for each. Additionally, exports to the Philippines have been reduced
slightly from the February estimate to $700 million due to the pace to date.
The situation in Indonesia remains the most fluid and highly dependent
on the stability of the new government.

U.S. shipments to Western Europe in the first half of 1998 also failed to equal
the previously forecast pace, have been lowered since February, and are now
projected at $9 billion, 4 percent under 1997. Europe has taken just 12,000
tons of corn in the first 6 months of 1998 compared with 1.2 million tons in
the same period in 1997.

In contrast, forecast U.S. agricultural exports to Canada, Mexico, and the rest
of Latin America have been raised since February. Mexico has taken more meats,
grains--particularly sorghum--soybeans, and cotton. Canada, despite projected
slower GDP growth, shows growth in a wide variety of U.S. exports.

U.S. Agricultural Export Programs

Export Subsidy Programs

Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) sales are slightly higher in fiscal 1998
than in fiscal 1997. As of May 28, fiscal 1998 sales to countries in Africa,
Asia, the Caribbean, Central America, the New Independent States, and the
Middle East equalled 2,682 tons of anhydrous milk fat (3,352 tons butter
equivalent), 3,607 tons of butter, 2,792 tons of cheese, 4,948 tons of whole
milk powder, and 49,744 tons of nonfat dry milk. DEIP bonuses totaled $57.4
million for the same period, up about 10 percent from fiscal 1997 bonuses for
the same period. The Secretary of Agriculture has indicated his intent to
reactivate the Export Enhancement Program in fiscal 1998 for frozen poultry and
barley.

CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs

Credit guarantee allocations of $5.7 billion as of May 15 are approximately 60
percent higher than fiscal 1997 allocations for the same period. Almost half of
the GSM-102 allocations are for Asian countries. Importers in South Korea have
been the most active users of the GSM-102 program, with registrations totaling
$913 million for purchases of corn, meats, and other commodities. Importers in
Thailand used one-quarter of their 1998 allocation under GSM-102 for imports of
oilseeds and other products. The political upheaval in Indonesia has restrained
U.S. exports under credit guarantees to that country. Importers in Malaysia and
the Philippines continue to be hesitant to use credit guarantees.

As of May 15, $679 million out of an allocation of $1 billion was used for
Mexico's purchases under GSM-102. Mexican importers' purchases under credit
guarantees have fallen from fiscal 1997 when, on May 16, GSM-102 activity
reached $846 million.

U.S. Food Aid Programs

As of May 22, P.L. 480 Title I agreements were signed with 12 countries, with
allocations totaling $118 million of the $244.5 million appropriated. These
funds will provide 668,000 tons of commodity assistance, most of which is
wheat. Albania, Bangladesh, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia,
Mozambique, Russia, and Tajikistan are expected to receive commodity donations
totaling $79.8 million under the Title I-funded Food for Progress (FFP)
program. Title I allocations with another seven countries, totaling $74 million
are in formal negotiations, but have yet not been signed. When all agreements
are signed, Title I and FFP programs are expected to provide nearly 1.8 million
tons of commodity assistance to 27 countries.

Approximately one-third of the $837 million in Title II appropriations are for
Sub-Saharan Africa, nearly 65 percent of which are emergency funds. Angola and
Ethiopia are expected to receive the largest shares of the region's Title II
emergency funds, while Ethiopia and Mozambique will get the largest shares of
the region's Title II development funds. Eritrea, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and
Haiti will receive commodity assistance from the $30 million in Title III
allocations.

Import Highlights

Imports of U.S. agricultural products are expected to reach $38 billion in
fiscal 1998, unchanged from the February forecast. Higher than expected imports
of coffee, cocoa, and vegetables are offset by lower than anticipated imports
of fruits, tobacco, and rubber.

Projected imports of vegetables and preparations are increased by $300 million
from February. Imports of fruits and fruit juices, however, are revised
downward by $200 million. Total horticultural imports are expected to reach
$14.4 billion in fiscal 1998, up $100 million from the February forecast.
Projected imports of animals and products are unchanged from the February
forecast.  Grains and feed imports are revised down $100 million, while volume
is reduced by 700,000 tons.

Coffee imports are revised up $300 million from February due to higher than
anticipated import price increases. The import unit value for the first half of
fiscal 1998 was 33 percent higher than a year ago. Projected coffee volume
remains unchanged from February at 1.2 million tons and unchanged from the
total for fiscal 1997. Imports of cocoa and cocoa products are raised $200
million to $1.8 billion in fiscal 1998. Projected volume of imported cocoa is
increased by 200,000 tons. Oilseed products are increased $100 million to $2.2
billion, while the volume is boosted 400,000 tons.

These upward revisions are offset by downward revisions in imports of  rubber,
tobacco, and other products. Projected rubber imports are 

Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1997-1998
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                          October-March    Fiscal    Fiscal 1998
  Commodity                1997    1998     1997      Forecast
                                                      Feb.    May
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      --Billion dollars--
Animals and products      3.160    3.397    6.426     6.9      6.9
   Live Animals           0.752    0.882    1.525     1.6      1.7
   Red Meats              1.204    1.320    2.583     2.8      2.7
   Dairy Products         0.663    0.633    1.273     1.4      1.4
 
Horticultural product     6.496    7.084   12.673    14.3     14.4
   Fruits, inc. juices    2.129    2.024    4.138     4.4      4.2
    Bananas               0.580    0.585    1.218     1.3      1.3
   Vegetables and preps.  2.014    2.302    3.604     4.0      4.3
   Nuts and preps.        0.279    0.340    0.547     0.7      0.7
   Wine & malt beverages  1.401    1.659    3.068     3.8      3.8
   Nursery & cut flowers  0.503    0.567    0.974     1.2      1.2
 
Grains and feeds          1.485    1.506    2.941     3.2      3.1
   Grains                 0.520    0.451    0.979     0.9      0.9
   Feeds & grain prod.    0.965    1.055    1.962     2.3      2.2
 
Sugar & related products  0.846    0.699    1.869     1.6      1.6
Oilseeds and products     1.119    1.129    2.248     2.1      2.2
Tobacco, unmanufactured   0.638    0.478    1.179     1.4      1.2
Coffee, incl. prods.      1.579    2.015    3.698     3.4      3.7
Cocoa, incl. products     0.726    0.961    1.414     1.6      1.8
Rubber and allied gum     0.710    0.528    1.315     1.3      1.1
Other products            0.964    1.120    2.026     2.2      2.0
 
Total                    17.723   18.915   35.788    38.0     38.0

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

reduced from February by $200 million, while volume is unchanged at 1.1 million
tons. Prices for rubber have fallen largely from the devaluation of the
Indonesian currency. More than 60 percent of U.S. imported rubber is from
Indonesia. Tobacco imports are decreased $200 million, with fiscal 1998 imports
expected to reach 1.2 billion.

Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports:  Volume by commodity, 1997-98
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                            October-March    Fiscal    Fiscal 1998
     Commodity               1997   1998      1997      Forecast
                                                       Feb.   May
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     --Million metric tons--
Red meats                   0.529   0.580    1.140    1.2      1.2
Cheese and casein           0.133   0.125    0.254    0.3      0.3
Horticultural products      5.938   6.483   11.242   12.6     12.8
 Fruits and preps.          3.418   3.688    6.918    7.3      7.3
  Bananas and plantains     1.909   2.077    3.950    4.0      4.0
 Vegetables and preps.      2.412   2.676    4.122    4.8      5.1
 Nuts and preps.            0.108   0.119    0.203    0.2      0.2
 Wine and malt beverages 1/ 8.669  10.048   20.426   22.0     22.0
 Fruit juices 1/           15.736  13.586   29.829   30.0     28.7
Grains and feeds            4.006   3.621    8.434    8.7      8.0
 Grains                     2.975   2.582    5.643    5.6      5.4
 Feed and grain products    1.031   1.039    2.791    2.9      2.5
Sugar, cane or beet         1.295   0.825    2.938    2.3      2.3
Oilseeds and products       1.818   2.252    3.780    3.6      4.0
Tobacco, unmanufactured     0.183   0.127    0.337    0.4      0.3
Coffee, incl. products      0.623   0.599    1.212    1.2      1.2
Cocoa, incl. products       0.408   0.486    0.767    0.8      1.0
Rubber and allied gum       0.561   0.557    1.075    1.1      1.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 1/ Million hectoliters not included in horticultural totals.

  Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1997-98
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                           October-March    Fiscal      Fiscal 1998
     Region                 1997   1998      1997        Forecast
                                                        Feb.   May
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        --Billion dollars--

Western Hemisphere          9.410   10.288   19.245     20.2     20.5
   Canada                   3.585    3.884    7.293      7.7      7.8
   Mexico                   2.126    2.472    3.941      4.2      4.8
   Brazil                   0.681    0.602    1.517      1.6      1.3
   Colombia                 0.599    0.759    1.349       NA      1.5
   Chile                    0.480    0.464    0.755      0.8      0.9
   Central America          1.030    1.166    2.165       NA      2.3
    Costa Rica              0.348    0.371    0.740       NA      0.7
   Other Latin America      0.909    0.941    2.225      5.9      1.9
Western Europe              3.609    3.759    7.127      8.2      8.0
   European Union           3.526    3.672    6.943      7.4      7.3
Central and Eastern Europe  0.171    0.132    0.070      0.3      0.3
New Independent States      0.044    0.024    0.252      0.1      0.1
Asia                        3.288    3.194    6.409      6.4      6.3
   China                    0.330    0.392    0.645      0.7      0.8 
   Southeast Asia           1.899    1.781    3.795      3.5      3.5
    Indonesia               0.764    0.686    1.591       NA      1.4
    Thailand                0.446    0.391    0.897       NA      0.8
   South Asia               0.291    0.343    0.687      0.7      0.7
    India                   0.254    0.306    0.618       NA      0.6
Oceania                     0.766    0.925    1.824      1.9      1.9
Africa                      0.435    0.592    0.871      0.9      0.9
   Ivory Coast              0.148    0.291    0.223       NA      0.6
Middle East                 0.445    0.337    0.640      0.7      0.7
   Turkey                   0.366    0.255    0.509       NA      0.5
Total                      17.723   18.915   35.788     38.0     38.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
NA = Not available; first estimate made in May 1998.


END_OF_FILE