Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|December 2016

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Eastern Region

December 2016

National - Signifcant Events for September–November 2016

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies 

Regional - Climate Overview for September–November 2016

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

September 1–November 30, 2016

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

September 1–November 30, 2016

October

Highlights for the East

Fall was a season of two extremes. Drought conditons 

persisted or worsened in the Northeast and western 

Carolinas, afectng water resources, agriculture, and fre 

actvity. Conversely, Hurricane Mathew dumped up to 

19 inches of rain on the eastern Carolinas and Virginia 

from October 7–9. Six sites in the Carolinas had their alltme wetest day. Saturated soils and heavy rain led to 

devastatng fooding. See Impacts secton for details.

There were several other notable events during fall. 

• September 19–22: A stalled front and remnant 

moisture from Tropical Storm Julia dumped up to 18 

inches of rain on parts of Virginia and North Carolina. 

Norfolk, VA, set a daily precipitaton record on three 

consecutve days, which was a frst for the site. 

• September 28–30: Up to 14 inches of rain fell from 

southern Delaware to central North Carolina. The 

29th became Wallops Island, VA's all-tme wetest day.

• Record warm September for Charleston, SC; 

Worcester, MA; and Dulles Airport, VA.

• November 20–21: Up to 54.5 inches of lake-efect 

snow fell south and east of Lake Ontario. Syracuse and 

Binghamton, NY had their greatest two-day snowfall 

total on record for November.

• Highest count of November days with no measurable 

precipitaton for Charleston, SC, and Charlote, NC. 

• Record warm fall for LaGuardia Airport, NY; 

Washington Natonal, DC; and Bridgeport, CT. 

Drought conditons worsened through 

September and into October in the Northeast 

and western Carolinas. Precipitaton in 

late October and early November led to 

improvement in the western half of New York 

and temporarily kept drought conditons from 

deterioratng in the rest of the Northeast. 

Conditons contnued to worsen in the western 

Carolinas and Virginia, while the eastern 

Carolinas experienced fooding. During the rest 

of November, drought conditons generally 

persisted or deteriorated in the Eastern Region, 

except in western and northern New York. 

Drought conditons persisted across the region 

in early December, with the Carolinas seeing 

some improvement.

The Eastern Region received 93% of normal 

fall precipitaton. Each of the three weterthan-normal states ranked this fall among 

their top 20 wetest, while Vermont had its 

19th driest fall. September precipitaton was 

107% of normal. Of the ten dry states, three 

ranked this September among their top 20 

driest. Four states ranked it among their top 

20 wetest. October precipitaton was 118% of 

normal. Eight states were weter than normal, 

with four ranking this October among their 

top 20 wetest. The region had its 13th driest 

November at 51% of normal. All states were 

drier than normal, with seven ranking this 

November among their top 20 driest.

The Eastern Region had its second warmest 

fall on record at 3.1°F above normal. All 

sixteen states ranked this fall among their 

top six warmest on record. It was the region's 

third warmest September at 4.2°F above 

normal. This September ranked within the 

top eleven warmest for all sixteen states, 

with departures up to 5.3°F above normal. 

At 3.3°F above normal, the region had its 

ninth warmest October. State departures up 

to 4.7°F above normal. Eleven states ranked 

this October among their top 20 warmest. It 

was the region's 18th warmest November at 

2.0°F above normal. This November ranked 

within the top 20 warmest for nine states, with 

departures up to 3.5°F above normal.

Drought in the East

Normals based on 1981–2010

The contguous U.S. had its warmest autumn on record with an average temperature of 57.6°F, 4.1°F 

above the 20th century average. It was the ninth warmest September on record with an average 

temperature of 67.2°F, 2.4°F above average. The U.S. had its third warmest October on record with 

an average temperature of 57.7°F, 3.6°F above average. November's average temperature of 48.0°F 

was 6.3°F above average, making it the second warmest on record. Autumn precipitaton for the 

contguous U.S. was 6.88 inches, which was average. The U.S. precipitaton total for September was 

2.70 inches, 0.21 inches below average, while October precipitaton was 2.33 inches, 0.17 inches 

above average. November precipitaton totaled 1.73 inches, 0.50 inches below average.

U.S. Drought Monitor

December 15, 2016

September
Regional - Impacts and Updates for September–November 2016

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|December 2016 

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Winter 2016–17 Eastern Region Partners

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Ofces, Atlantc

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Ofce for Coastal Management

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov

NOAA Research, Climate Program Ofce and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.research.noaa.gov

NOAA Natonal Sea Grant Ofce

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantc, South Atlantc, and Great

Lakes Regional Collaboraton Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Southeast Regional Climate Center

www.sercc.com

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton System

www.drought.gov

Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments

www.cisa.sc.edu

Consortum on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperatve Insttute for North Atlantc Research

www.cinar.org

Eastern Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

Mid-Atlantc RISA

www.midatlantcrisa.org

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature and 

Precipitation

A

NOAA's Climate Predicton 

Center is calling for an 

increased chance of abovenormal temperatures for 

most of the Eastern Region 

for January–March, with 

equal chances of below-, 

near-, or above-normal 

temperatures for Ohio, 

northwestern Pennsylvania, 

and western New York (lef). 

The January–March 

precipitaton outlook calls 

for an increased chance of 

below-normal precipitaton 

for the eastern Carolinas. 

There is an increased 

chance of above-normal precipitaton for 

Ohio, West Virginia, and western portons of 

Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland, Virginia, and 

North Carolina. Equal chances were forecast 

elsewhere (below).

A transiton to ENSO-neutral 

conditons is expected during 

January–March, so other 

paterns of climate variability

such as the Madden-Julian 

Oscillaton could impact 

temperatures in the region. 

Lingering efects from La Niña 

are expected to play a role in 

the precipitaton patern.

La Niña

In November, cooler-than-normal sea surface 

temperatures in the equatorial Pacifc Ocean 

and atmospheric paterns indicated weak La 

Niña conditons. NOAA's Climate Predicton 

Center indicates weak La Niña conditons are 

favored to persist through winter 2016–17, 

with a transiton to ENSO-neutral conditons 

expected during January–March 2017. ENSO 

can impact weather paterns in the region.

40

EC

A: Above-normal

B: Below- normal

EC: Equal chances of 

above-, near, or belownormal 

#: Probability of aboveor below-normal

33

Water levels of rivers, lakes, aquifers, 

and reservoirs were well below normal in 

many drought-stricken areas during fall. 

More than 60 waterways in the Northeast 

had record or near-record low streamfow

in mid- to late September. In November, 

salt water was located 19 miles farther 

upstream than normal due to low fow on 

the Delaware River. Numerous shallow, 

private wells ran dry. The Round Valley 

Reservoir in New Jersey hit record low 

levels in November. Cambridge bought 

water from the Massachusets Water Resources Authority at an expected 

cost of $1.2 million per month. Hundreds of water suppliers in New 

England had bans or restrictons in place. 

Dwindling water supplies challenged growers. Poor conditons of 

pastures and hay felds led some farmers to sell of young catle and 

others to use supplemental feed, requiring them to buy more to 

get through winter. Nectar producton in fowers was slowed by the 

drought. As a result, beekeepers in southern Maine reported that honey 

producton was down, with some having no crop at all. Farmers in more 

drought-stricken countes became eligible for federal aid. 

Dry conditons contributed to at least 20 wildfres that burned more than 

73,000 acres in western North Carolina during fall. Thousands of residents 

were evacuated. The cost to fght the fres was estmated at nearly $30 

million. South Carolina and Virginia also saw wildfres that charred more 

than 10,000 acres. Smoke from the numerous fres in the Southeast 

caused poor air quality in portons of the Carolinas and Virginia. 

A

Pinnacle Mountain Fire near 

Pickens, SC, in November. Credit: 

Transylvania County, NC 

Drought

The U.S. Drought Outlook

for December 15, 2016–

March 31, 2017 calls 

for drought conditons 

to persist or remain but 

improve in portons of 

Maine, southern New 

Hampshire, southern New 

England, southeastern New 

York, northern New Jersey, 

eastern Pennsylvania, and 

the Carolinas. Drought 

conditons are expected 

to develop in southeastern South Carolina and 

improve in the rest of the Eastern Region.

Drought Mathew made landfall as a Category 

1 hurricane near McClellanville, SC, on 

October 8. It was the frst hurricane 

to make landfall in the state since 

Gaston in 2004. Storm surge of 2–6 feet 

caused coastal fooding in Virginia and 

the Carolinas, with record high water 

levels at Hateras, NC; Wilmington, NC; 

and Oyster Landing, SC. Winds gusted 

to 103 mph along the coast, and two 

weak tornadoes touched down in the 

Carolinas. Saturated soil and Mathew's heavy rain led to catastrophic 

fooding, which lasted more than a week in North Carolina. Preliminary 

USGS data indicated 28 gauges in North Carolina and fve in South Carolina 

had new record peaks (streamfow and/or water level). In North Carolina, 

the Litle River near Manchester set a record-high water level in late 

September and then surpassed that record two tmes afer Mathew's 

heavy rainfall. The Neuse River at Kinston crested more than 14 feet 

above food stage. Over 2,000 water rescues were performed in the state. 

There were at least 35 (mostly food-related) fatalites in Virginia and the 

Carolinas, with 28 of those in North Carolina. More than 1,000 roads and 

bridges were closed in the three states, and nearly 2 million customers 

were without power. In additon, there were major crop losses in the 

Carolinas and over fve million farm animals drowned in North Carolina. 

News reports indicated fooding caused an estmated $1.5 billion in 

damage to 100,000 buildings in eastern North Carolina. In Virginia, more 

than 2,300 homes were damaged, with an estmated $13.2 million in 

damage to public facilites and structures. As of November 9, nearly $70 

million in disaster assistance has been approved for victms of the storm.

Hurricane Matthew

Flooding in Lumberton, NC. Credit: 

SCEMD and Civil Air Patrol

EC

B

33

33

40

A