OIL CROPS OUTLOOK                                              April 12, 1995
            Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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OIL CROPS OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic
Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. 
OCS-0495.  
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U.S. SOYBEAN EXPORTS BENEFIT FROM BRAZILIAN DELAYS
 
USDA's forecast for 1994/95 U.S. soybean exports went to 800 million bushels,
up from 785 million last month and 589 million last season.  Export shipments
from September through January were 414 million bushels, which is ahead of the
pace set in 1992/93 when total exports reached 770 million.  U.S. exports
should maintain the brisk pace longer because of slower shipments in the next
2 months from South America.  This should cover a significant portion of world
demand, thus reducing the potential for South American exports to expand
market share.  The U.S. share of world soybean exports is expected to rebound
from a historic low (57 percent) in 1993/94 to 66 percent this season.
 
The South American export forecast did not change from last month despite
projected larger soybean and soybean product availability.  Brazil's
prospective soybean production was raised to another record of 25.5 million
metric tons.  Beneficial weather in most soybean producing areas is likely to
push yields to a record level for the fourth consecutive year.  While the
South American harvest is progressing ahead of average, depressed prices for
soybeans will slow the pace of farm sales and exports.  Confusion due to
discrepancies in farm policy between Brazil's central government and its
Congress could affect minimum prices paid to farmers, thus influencing the
pace of sales and exports.  Another devaluation of the Real is expected to
occur in May, also supporting a reduced pace in Brazil's early exports.  And
delays at already overburdened Brazilian ports could worsen due to heavy
imports of other goods, competition for transportation with other export
commodities, and potential work stoppages by dockworker unions.
 
The European Union (EU) accounts for most of the slight net increase this
month in projected global soybean and soybean meal imports.  Total 1994/95 EU
soybean imports are projected to be 405 million bushels.  U.S. exports to the
EU (September through January) totaled 195 million bushels, compared with 151
million a year earlier.  EU crushing margins have recently plunged, but are
still above previous years.  This implies that while EU crushing will still be
robust, a more favorable environment for EU soybean meal imports versus
soybean imports is developing.
 
March 1 U.S. soybean stocks were 1,370 million bushels, the largest March 1
stocks since 1986 and 34 percent higher than a year ago (see ERS Autofax
document #2316).  However, the inventory was smaller than expected, so that
year-ending stocks were forecast down to 435 million bushels from 510 million
last month.  The higher than normal residual suggests that the current 1994
production estimate may be overstated.
 
Lower soybean meal prices in February reduced gross crushing margins, although
U.S. margins are still well above last year.  This year, soybean meal is
expected to contribute 55 percent of the crushing value of soybeans, the
lowest in over a decade.  Oil prices also fell in February.  The soybean price
at the Gulf weakened while domestic prices held firm.  U.S. crush dropped in
February to 116.5 million bushels from January's 127.3 million.
 
However, a resurgent soybean meal market sparked a soybean price rally in
March.  In April, USDA increased its crush forecast 5 million bushels for
1994/95 to 1,370 million.  The cumulative crush through February established a
record of 718 million bushels.  With expected record domestic and foreign
demand and smaller projected carryout, this year's average expected price
range was raised to $5.35-$5.45 per bushel.
 
CHINESE SOYBEAN OIL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO BOOST U.S. EXPORTS
 
Expected U.S. soybean oil exports for 1994/95 total 2,250 million pounds (1
million metric tons), the highest since 1979.  U.S. soybean oil exports to
China are expected to account for about 45 percent of total U.S. exports,
compared to 11 percent and 0.5 percent in 1993/94 and 1992/93, respectively. 
Cumulative U.S. oil exports from October 1994 through January 1995 are 981
million pounds, with China directly importing 344 million pounds.  February-
September 1995 exports are expected to exceed last year by 40 percent.  Tight
palm oil supplies and a sharp increase in Chinese soybean oil imports, are
pushing projected global soybean oil exports to a record 5.2 million metric
tons.  
 
Year-to-date domestic use of soybean oil, at 4,461 million pounds, is only
slightly above a year earlier.  The 1994/95 forecast of 13 billion pounds is
104 million pounds (0.8 percent) more than the 1993/94 offtake.  Soybean oil
disappearance as a proportion of total U.S. edible fats and oils disappearance
has declined in the last several years, with the 1994/95 forecast at 61.5
percent.  Domestic use of competing oils, especially canola oil, has increased
faster than soybean oil in recent years.
 
Based on a higher crush, the forecast for 1994/95 U.S. soybean oil production
rose 50 million pounds in April to 15.2 billion pounds.  Total U.S. mill and
warehouse stocks of soybean oil rose in February from January to 1,136 million
pounds as total use declined.  Year-ending stocks are forecast down to 1,075
million, though, as upcoming export demand could be active, especially from
China.  Ending stocks for 1994/95 would be less than last season's tight
situation and the lowest since 1985/86.
 
Despite the tight U.S. stocks forecast, soybean oil prices, at 28.3 cents per
pound in March, were below where they were a year ago.  Prospects for global
edible oil stocks are improving in 1995 with a huge outturn of South American
soybean and sunflower oil and Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil imminent.
 
U.S. 1994/95 MEAL DISAPPEARANCE PROJECTED TO NEW HIGH
 
Cumulative domestic disappearance (Oct.-Jan.) has been strong, at almost 9
percent above a year earlier.  USDA revised up its domestic meal use
projection to 26.6 million tons, which is 1.4 million tons above the 1993/94
level.  However, this pace likely will slow over the next 6 months.  While the
December 1994-February 1995 pig crop was record large, the March 1 breeding
herd and this year's farrowing intentions for March-May and June-August were
down from last year.  Further depreciation of the dollar has helped U.S.
soybean meal exports, especially to the EU.
 
Although the crush forecast increased, 1994/95 expected soybean meal
production increased just 50,000 tons from last month's forecast to 32.4
million tons.  The year-to-date meal extraction rate of 47.3 pounds per bushel
is below the range of recent years (47.5-47.6 pounds).
 
USDA narrowed its forecast price range to $150-$160 per ton this month.  Meal
prices will likely slip further in coming months with normal seasonal
weakening.  The October-March high-protein soybean meal price averaged $160.75
per ton.
 
RECORD U.S. SUNFLOWERSEED OIL EXPORTS SEEN
 
U.S. sunflowerseed oil exports were raised 17 percent to a record 375,000
metric tons.  Substitution of sunflower oil for soybean oil in Mexico and the
Middle East accounts for most of the increase.  Sunflowerseed oil prices are
now lower than those of the major competing oils.  In Argentina (another major
sunflowerseed oil exporter), generally improved weather conditions raised
projected sunflowerseed production 18 percent to 4.5 million tons.
 
U.S. ACREAGE INTENTIONS FOR 1995 IMPLY CONTINUED AMPLE OILSEED SUPPLIES
 
U.S. farmers say they intend to plant 61.5 million acres of soybeans in 1995,
down 490,000 from 1994 (see ERS Autofax document #2309).  Acreage declines
were most visible in the South as cotton intentions boomed.  Plantings are set
to decline from 1994 in Arkansas (-200,000), Georgia (-170,000), Louisiana
(-150,000), Missouri (-100,000), and most other southern States.  Prospective
acreage held steady or even slightly increased in the eastern and western Corn
Belt regions.
 
The moderate decline reported in Prospective Plantings is surprising
considering the softening soybean-to-corn price ratio.  Corn Belt farmers
apparently are responding to higher fertilizer costs this spring with less
corn acreage and more soybeans.  Farmers in the Delta and Southeast are
reacting to soaring cotton prices and a lower ARP with intentions to plant
more cotton than in the last 20 years.  Depending on weather and relative
prices this spring, recent history indicates that soybean planted acreage
could rise or fall by up to 0.5-1 million acres from intentions.
 
Sunflower acreage intentions are 3.5 million acres, which would be down 54,000
from 1994 plantings.  Intended area in North Dakota and Minnesota declined
90,000 and 40,000 acres, respectively.  Most of the cutback was for oil-type
varieties as non-oil types increased 11 percent from 1994.  Increases in
Kansas, South Dakota, and Nebraska offset some of the acreage reduction.
 
Sunflower acreage will dip as expected returns for both spring wheat and
barley look comparatively favorable and neither have a set-aside requirement
this year.  Some producers also may have planted fewer sunflower acres for
rotation purposes.  With large carryover stocks projected, sunflowerseed
prices will probably not increase much in 1995/96 if new crop yields are near
normal.
 
Farmers intend to plant 193,000 acres of flaxseed, up 15,000 from 1994 but
down 13,000 from 1993.  North Dakota, the leading flaxseed producing State,
accounted for all of the larger expected area this year.
 
CANADIAN OILSEED PLANTINGS TO DECLINE MODESTLY IN 1995
 
Canadian farmers' acreage intentions this spring suggest that canola plantings
will drop 647,000 acres from last year's record 14.3 million, but would still
be the second largest ever.  Canadian canola production set a record last year
of 7.2 million metric tons.  Major reasons for the decline in canola plantings
are the need to maintain crop rotations and relatively good grains prices. 
Sowing of soybeans and flaxseed are anticipated to increase.  On the other
hand, very wet soils in the Canadian prairie provinces this spring may hamper
planting progress, which could curb canola yields.
 
The Canadian government's recent decision to eliminate subsidies on freight
rates could soon mean more acreage of higher valued canola seed instead of
grains.  This action also favors domestic processing of canola against seed
exports, which have been primarily to Japan, the EU, and Mexico.  The impact
could be moderated, however, by farmers' desires to avoid planting canola in
successive years to maintain their crop rotations.  Farmers are advised to
plant canola on the same land only once in 4 years.  Yet, Canadian canola
production has already doubled since 1992.  New canola crushing plants are
either underway or planned in Saskatchewan and southern Ontario that will take
advantage of larger supplies.  The United States continues to be an excellent
market for Canadian canola oil and meal exports.
 
******************************************************************************
Information Contacts:
Mark Ash         Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Fats and Oils    (202) 219-0838
Scott Sanford    Peanuts, Cottonseed                        (202) 219-0835
Jaime Casteneda  World Oilseeds                             (202) 219-0826
******************************************************************************
 
Table 1--Soybeans:  U.S. supply and disappearance
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                     Supply                          Disappearance 
        --------------------------------  ------------------------------------
Year                                                     Seed,                
begin.     Beg.   Im-   Produc-  Total    Crush   Ex-    feed,    Total   End.
Sept. 1  stocks  ports   tion                    ports & resid.         stocks
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         -------------------------- Million bushels---------------------------
 
1992/93     278    2    2,190    2,471     1,279    770    130    2,179    292
1993/94 1/  292    6    1,871    2,170     1,272    589    100    1,961    209
1994/95 2/  209    8    2,558    2,775     1,370    800    170    2,340    435
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1/ Estimated.  2/ Forecast.
 
Table 2--Soybean meal:  U.S. supply and disappearance
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                 Supply                           Disappearance 
        ----------------------------     ------------------------------------
Year 
begin.      Beg.    Produc-   Total      Domestic   Ex-     Total    End.
Oct. 1    stocks     tion                           ports           stocks
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         ------------------------------1,000 tons-----------------------------
 
1992/93     230     30,364    30,687       24,251   6,232   30,483    204
1993/94 1/  204     30,417    30,691       25,185   5,356   30,541    150
1994/95 2/  150     32,390    32,600       26,600   5,800   32,400    200
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1/ Estimated.  2/ Forecast.
 
Table 3--Soybean oil:  U.S. supply and disappearance
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                 Supply                           Disappearance 
        ----------------------------     ------------------------------------
Year 
begin.       Beg.   Produc-   Total     Domestic  Ex-     Total     End.
Oct. 1     stocks    tion                         ports            stocks
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         -------------------------- Million pounds---------------------------
 
1992/93     2,239   13,778   16,027       13,054   1,419   14,473   1,555
1993/94 1/  1,555   13,906   15,528       12,896   1,529   14,425   1,103
1994/95 2/  1,103   15,212   16,325       13,000   2,250   15,250   1,075
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1/ Estimated.  2/ Forecast.
 
Table 4--Oilseeds prices received by farmers, U.S.
--------------------------------------------------------
                                              
Marketing      Soy-  Cotton-  Sun-            
 year         beans   seed   flowers  Peanuts  Flaxseed
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              $/bu.   $/ton   $/cwt   Cents/lb  $/bu.
                                     
1990/91        5.74  121.00    10.80    34.70   5.27
1991/92        5.58   71.00     8.69    28.30   3.52
1992/93        5.56   97.50     9.74    30.00   4.12
1993/94        6.40  113.00    12.90    30.40   4.20
 
1992/93:
October        5.26   94.00     9.12    29.80   4.09
November       5.36  105.00     8.73    28.10   4.08
December       5.46  105.00     9.37    27.20   4.24
January        5.58  111.00    10.00    29.50   4.11
February       5.56  115.00    10.50     NA     4.46
March          5.65    NA      11.00     NA     4.52
April          5.73    NA      10.80     NA     4.40
May            5.81    NA      11.10     NA     4.42
June           5.90    NA      10.80     NA     4.45
July           6.56    NA      12.00     NA     4.29
August         6.56  111.00    13.30     NA     3.79
September      6.21  104.00    14.20    32.00   4.24
 
1993/94:
October        6.01  112.00    11.20    30.00   4.09
November       6.32  122.00    11.60    29.50   4.05
December       6.64  123.00    13.00    29.70   4.18
January        6.72  126.00    13.60    36.10   4.38
February       6.71   97.00    15.10     NA     4.61
March          6.73     NA     15.00     NA     4.64
April          6.57     NA     15.00     NA     4.60
May            6.77     NA     15.60     NA     4.43
June           6.72     NA     14.20     NA     4.25
July           5.92     NA     12.40     NA     4.28
August         5.58   86.00    12.60     NA     4.52
September      5.47  101.00    10.70    30.30   4.54
                                       
1994/95                                
October        5.30   96.00    10.80    28.80   4.49
November       5.36  106.00    10.60    25.60   4.51
December       5.41  119.00    10.30    25.40   4.71
January        5.47  120.00    10.60    25.70   4.75
February       5.40  103.00    10.80     NA     4.94
March 1/       5.53    NA      10.30     NA     4.96
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1/ Preliminary.
 
Table 5--Vegetable oil prices
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                      Cotton-  Sun-       
Marketing    Soybean   seed   flower Peanut  Corn  
 year          oil      oil     oil   oil     oil  
---------------------------------------------------
                     Cents/lb.
                                                   
1990/91       21.00    22.30   23.60  45.50  27.50 
1991/92       19.10    20.10   21.60  27.30  25.82 
1992/93       21.40    25.00   25.30  27.40  20.90 
1993/94       27.09    27.78   31.00  43.20  26.38 
                                                   
1992/93:                                           
October       18.36    22.17   22.03  23.63  20.43 
November      20.10    22.96   23.47  25.58  20.60 
December      20.52    23.91   24.33  30.30  20.75 
January       21.23    24.09   24.58  31.00  20.75 
February      20.72    22.03   24.47  27.17  20.87 
March         21.00    22.24   24.69  26.00  20.79 
April         21.24    22.55   24.94  27.40  20.80 
May           21.15    22.70   24.84  30.00  20.75 
June          21.30    26.76   25.50  30.13  20.60 
July          24.13    30.74   28.72  31.70  20.67 
August        23.46    30.45   28.83  39.50  21.50 
September     23.61    28.98   28.00  39.63  22.23 
                                                   
1993/94:                                           
October       22.96    24.79   26.33  40.20  22.25 
November      25.43    26.69   28.20  43.33  23.06 
December      28.27    30.39   32.11  43.17  26.93 
January       29.91    33.16   35.08  46.10  28.00 
February      28.85    29.96   33.68  46.12  29.89 
March         29.03    29.60   33.48  44.50  30.30 
April         27.90    29.06   33.00  43.40  29.63 
May           29.10    29.66   33.50  44.25  29.48 
June          27.60    27.55   31.34  43.75  29.43 
July          24.53    24.20   28.89  44.00  27.20 
August        25.38    23.71   28.13  45.00  25.02 
September     26.12    24.51   29.28  43.10  24.87 
                                                   
1994/95                                            
October       27.06    23.64   28.90  46.00  24.73 
November      29.84    24.85   29.40  50.88  24.75 
December      30.61    25.50   30.63  53.80  24.75 
January       29.04    26.41   29.25  50.25  28.01 
February      28.15    25.63   27.66  41.83  27.26 
March  1/     28.33    26.41   28.19  41.00  28.17 
---------------------------------------------------
1/ Preliminary.
 
Table 6--Oilseed meal prices
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             Soy-   Cotton   Sun-           
Marketing    bean    seed   flower  Peanut  Linseed
 year        meal    meal    meal    meal    meal
---------------------------------------------------
                        $/Short ton
 
1990/91     181.40  130.75   88.00  193.00  130.10
1991/92     189.20  140.50   76.80  154.50  125.25
1992/93     193.75  161.78   89.00  172.90  133.60
1993/94     192.86  164.30   94.00  194.91  139.55
 
1992/93:
October     180.60  154.40   86.25  163.33  141.25
November    181.90  157.50   95.00  170.00  152.50
December    187.60  174.50   86.25  173.13  137.40
January     188.75  164.40   87.50  180.00  136.70
February    179.90  149.40   90.00  175.83  142.50
March       183.60  153.50   89.00  165.00  135.40
April       187.40  149.00   82.50  161.50  126.25
May         193.25  143.10   83.50  165.63  126.25
June        193.10  153.00   91.00  171.25  123.20
July        229.90  170.30   97.50  200.00  133.75
August      219.10  178.50   97.00  213.75  150.00
September   199.90  193.75   95.00  210.63  148.75
                  
1993/94:          
October     194.50  173.10   90.00  196.00  147.50
November    209.40  181.00   90.00  197.00  161.80
December    206.00  180.00   89.40  200.00  155.25
January     198.30  170.30   97.00  209.00  140.25
February    198.40  173.10   98.75  207.50  136.25
March       195.40  174.00    N/Q   198.75  127.20
April       188.90  166.25    N/Q   191.00  125.50
May         193.75  157.75  105.00  187.50  125.00
June        195.50  154.10  102.50  163.75  111.90
July        181.10  152.50   97.50  164.00  114.90
August      178.60  144.50   90.75  153.75  111.60
September   174.50  145.00   85.00  114.80   NA
 
1994/95
October     168.50  134.40   75.00  151.25  122.50
November    161.00  120.50   69.50  147.50  110.00
December    156.90  114.20   52.50  127.00   95.60
January     156.40  106.75   50.00  105.00   82.40
February    151.30   97.50   46.88  107.50   85.25
March 1/    156.20  100.00   51.25  119.00   86.25
---------------------------------------------------
1/ Preliminary.
The next release of the OIL CROPS OUTLOOK is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET
Friday, May 12.
 
                                    END-END-END