OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE -- SUMMARY               June 2, 1999
June 1999, ERS-AES-22
              Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.  The complete text of the report
will be available electronically about 1 week following this summary
release.
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OUTLOOK for U.S. Agricultural Trade

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board,
Economic Research Service, and Foreign Agricultural Service,
U. S. Department of Agriculture

                                                             AES-22
                                                       June 2, 1999

FORECAST 1999 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS REMAIN AT $49 BILLION

U.S. agricultural exports for fiscal 1999 are forecast at $49 billion,
unchanged from the February estimate, but 8.5 percent below fiscal 1998.
Further deterioration in prospects for export of some high-value
commodities, especially hides and skins, is offset by slight improvements
in expectations for grain exports.  The outlook reflects a more stable
world economic situation and the beginnings of a recovery in Asia.

Grain export forecasts are increased over February by $600 million to
$14.4 billion, while horticultural products are up $300 million to $10.3
billion. Expectations for oilseeds and product exports and livestock,
poultry, and dairy exports are down $500 million each to $8.1 billion and
$10.6 billion.

The projected fiscal 1999 import value of $37.5 billion is $500 million
below the February forecast.  The downward adjustment primarily reflects
smaller coffee and noncompetitive product import values.

The import reduction leads to a slight improvement from February in the
forecast export surplus to $11.5 billion.  The expected 1999 surplus,
however, remains well below 1998.


        Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1999
                     -- Year ending September 30 --
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Item        1994    1995    1996    1997   1998    1999 Projected
                                                    Feb.    Jun.
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                        --Billion dollars-

Exports     43.9    54.6    59.8    57.3    53.6    49.0    49.0

Imports     26.6    29.9    32.6    35.8    37.0    38.0    37.5

Balance     17.3    24.7    27.2    21.5    16.6    11.0    11.5
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This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 12, 1999, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

        Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1998-1999
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                               October-March     Fiscal  Fiscal 1999
   Commodity                   1998      1999      1998   Projected
                                                         Feb.   Jun.
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                                   --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/          7.607     7.349    14.109  13.8   14.4
  Wheat & flour              2.088     1.844     3.887   3.9    4.0
  Rice                       0.641     0.661     1.134   1.1    1.0
  Coarse grains 2/           2.787     2.733     4.990   4.8    5.2
    Corn                     2.279     2.424     4.261   4.3    4.7
  Feeds and fodders          1.262     1.215     2.411   2.3    2.4

Oilseeds and products        8.005     5.354    11.090   8.6    8.1
  Soybeans                   4.972     3.205     6.117   4.7    4.5
  Soybean meal               1.373     0.626     1.944   1.2    1.0
  Soybean oil                0.546     0.420     0.881   0.7    0.6

Livestock products           3.948     3.637     7.626   7.9    7.6
  Beef, pork & variety meats 2.040     1.964     4.045   4.2    4.2
  Hides & skins, incl. fur   0.726     0.556     1.358   1.4    1.1

Poultry & products           1.388     1.012     2.712   2.3    2.2
  Poultry meat               1.193     0.846     2.347   1.9    1.8
Dairy products               0.476     0.425     0.897   0.9    0.8
Tobacco, unmanufactured      0.756     0.791     1.448   1.4    1.4
Cotton & linters             1.516     0.883     2.537   1.4    1.4
Seeds                        0.572     0.535     0.838   0.9    0.8
Horticultural products       5.202     5.180    10.318  10.0   10.3
  Fruits & preparations      1.524     1.558     3.202   2.9    3.3
  Vegetables & preparations  1.411     1.438     2.805   2.8    2.9
  Tree nuts & preparations   0.706     0.653     1.215   1.3    1.1
Sugar, tropical, and other   1.003     0.985     2.054   1.9    2.0

    Total 3/                30.475    26.150    53.629  49.0   49.0
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1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.

   Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1998-99
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                               October-March     Fiscal  Fiscal 1999
   Commodity                   1998      1999      1998  Projected
                                                         Feb.   Jun.
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                                   --Million metric tons--
Wheat                       12.962    13.330    25.800  28.5   28.8
Wheat flour                  0.247     0.439     0.459   0.6    0.7
Rice                         1.765     2.000     3.315   3.2    3.2
Coarse grains 1/            23.215    27.516    43.960  49.4   51.8
   Corn                     18.955    24.408    37.697  44.0   46.5
Feeds & fodders              5.893     6.285    11.688  11.9   12.3
Oilseeds and products       26.566    21.226    36.018  33.8   31.7
  Soybeans                  18.644    15.110    23.287  22.3   21.2
  Soybean meal               5.527     3.705     8.464   7.2    6.2
  Soybean oil                0.883     0.688     1.396   1.2    1.1
Beef, pork & variety meats   0.770     0.776     1.559   1.7    1.7
Poultry meat                 1.350     1.113     2.663   2.3    2.3
Animal fats                  0.312     0.315     1.365   1.3    1.5
Cotton & linters             0.934     0.593     1.602   0.9    0.9
Horticultural products       3.756     3.797     7.414   7.1    7.5
Other                        3.402     3.629     6.173   6.0    6.3
  Total agriculture 2/      81.172    81.019   142.016 146.7  148.7
  Major bulk products 3/    57.520    58.549    97.964 104.3  105.9
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1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Excludes all exports
measured in hectoliters, pieces, dozens, or numbers. 3/ Includes wheat,
rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.


   Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1998-99
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                               October-March    Fiscal   Fiscal 1999
   Region                      1998      1999    1998      Forecast
                                                         Feb.   Jun.
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                                   --Billion dollars--
Asia (excluding Mid East)   11.326     9.624  19.668    16.8   17.2
  Japan                      5.193     4.656   9.459     8.0    8.4
  China                      1.125     0.592   1.514      1.3   1.1
  Hong Kong                  0.848     0.685   1.568     1.3    1.3
  Taiwan                     1.267     1.029   1.971     1.6    1.6
  South Korea                1.196     1.205   2.245     2.0    2.2
  Southeast Asia             1.313     1.133   2.282     2.0    2.0
    Indonesia                0.310     0.247   0.529     0.4    0.4
    Philippines              0.352     0.339   0.744     0.6    0.7
    Malaysia                 0.191     0.173   0.310     0.3    0.3
    Thailand                 0.324     0.246   0.449     0.4    0.4
  South Asia                 0.378     0.318   0.623     0.6    0.6
Western Hemisphere           9.544     9.075  18.370    18.1   17.8
  Canada                     3.464     3.400   7.022     6.7    6.8
  Mexico                     3.042     3.002   5.956     6.7    6.2
  Brazil                     0.381     0.261   0.566     0.4    0.4
  Venezuela                  0.295     0.269   0.516     0.5    0.5
  Other Latin America        2.362     2.144   4.310     3.8    3.9
Western Europe               5.774     4.439   8.844     7.5    7.5
  European Union             5.572     4.280   8.508     7.3    7.3
Central and Eastern Europe   0.194     0.112   0.320     0.3    0.2
New Independent States 1/    0.788     0.247   1.456     1.4    1.4
  Russia                     0.630     0.134   1.103     1.1    1.1
Middle East                  1.304     1.056   2.285     2.1    2.1
  Turkey                     0.319     0.249   0.658     0.6    0.6
  Saudi Arabia               0.324     0.257   0.535     0.5    0.5
Africa                       1.269     1.095   2.167     1.9    2.0
  North Africa               0.924     0.745   1.475     1.3    1.3
    Egypt                    0.570     0.516   0.939     0.9    0.9
  Sub-Saharan Africa         0.345     0.350   0.692     0.6    0.7
Oceania                      0.274     0.252   0.545     0.5    0.5
Transshipments 2/            0.003     0.249   0.075     0.1    0.3
     Total 2/               16.231    14.333  53.629    49.0   49.0
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1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU),
including the Baltic Republics.  2/ Transshipments through Canada are
included in the total only for fiscal 1998 and 1999 rather than being
distributed by country.


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