OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- SUMMARY             February 23, 1998
February 1998, AES-17s
             Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.  Printed copies of OUTLOOK
FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS will be available several weeks following this
summary release.  Call 202-694-5050 or e-mail service@econ.ag.gov for
availability.
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  FISCAL 1998 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST DROPPED TO $56 BILLION 
                                    
Fiscal 1998 U.S. agricultural exports are projected at $56 billion, $2.5
billion below the December forecast and 2 percent under 1997. U.S. exports
of corn are projected down primarily because of strong competition from
large supplies in Argentina and China, as well as reduced demand in Asia.
Since December, prospective U.S. corn exports were decreased by 7 million
tons to 41.5 million, 11 percent below 1997. And as Asia's financial
problems worsened, expected 1998 U.S. agricultural exports to Southeast
Asia and South Korea were dropped. Weaker Asian demand and lower prices
have reduced projected U.S. exports of meat, hides and skins, and
horticultural products by more than $1 billion since December.

Projections for fiscal 1998 imports remain at $38 billion, 6 percent above
1997, with horticultural products still expected to increase sharply. As a
result, the anticipated export surplus was revised down to $18 billion.

Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1998
              -- Year ending September 30 --
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Item              1994     1995      1996     1997      Forecast 1998
                                                          Dec    Feb
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                                 --Billion dollars--
Exports          43.9      54.6      59.8     57.3       58.5    56.0

Imports          26.6      29.9      32.6     35.8       38.0    38.0

Trade balance    17.3      24.7      27.2     21.5       20.5    18.0

                                -- Million metric tons --
Export volume   127.5     169.7     158.4    147.3      161.4   149.2
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This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the February 11, 1998, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Approved by the World
Agricultural Outlook Board and released February 23, 1998.

Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1996-1998
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                        October-December      Fiscal      Fiscal 1998
Commodity                 1996    1997         1997         Forecast
                                                           Dec     Feb
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                                   --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/       4.854   3.851      16.466       16.7    15.3
  Wheat & flour           1.118   1.096       4.263        4.5     4.4
  Rice                    0.304   0.276       0.962        1.0     1.0
  Coarse grains 2/        2.339   1.399       6.921        6.9     5.6
    Corn                  2.093   1.159       6.107        6.1     4.9
  Feeds and fodders       0.670   0.650       2.673        2.6     2.6

Oilseeds and products     3.907   4.683      11.437       11.0    11.2
  Soybeans                2.797   3.226       6.950        6.7     6.7
  Soybean meal            0.463   0.637       1.746        1.4     1.4
  Soybean oil             0.160   0.231       0.516        0.7     0.7
Livestock products        1.890   2.095       7.706        8.2     7.5
  Beef, pork &
   variety meats          0.927   1.080       3.977        4.3     4.0
  Hides & skins, 
   incl. furs             0.397   0.354       1.693        1.8     1.5
Poultry & products        0.815   0.727       2.872        3.2     2.9
Dairy products            0.174   0.236       0.842        0.8     0.9
Tobacco, unmanufactured   0.432   0.373       1.612        1.6     1.6
Cotton & linters          0.684   0.656       2.737        2.7     2.7
Seeds                     0.282   0.253       0.924        0.9     0.9
Horticultural products    2.781   2.820      10.598       11.2    10.8
  Fruits & preparations   0.813   0.842       3.412        3.5     3.3
  Vegetables & prep-
   arations               0.634   0.714       2.655        2.8     2.8
  Tree nuts & prep-
   arations               0.522   0.458       1.283        1.4     1.2
Sugar,tropical,and other  0.535   0.536       2.064        2.2     2.2
    Total 3/             16.354  16.230      57.258       58.5    56.0
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1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.

Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1996-98
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                           October-December    Fiscal     Fiscal 1998
  Commodity                 1996    1997        1997        Forecast
                                                           Dec    Feb
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                                --Million metric tons--

Wheat                      5.989    6.729      24.531      28.5   28.0
Wheat flour                0.145    0.141       0.504       0.5    0.5
Rice                       0.786    0.734       2.564       2.7    2.7
Coarse grains 1/          16.290   11.597      53.027      55.1   47.9
   Corn                   14.571    9.596      46.579      48.5   41.5
Feeds & fodders            2.999    3.058      12.259      12.7   12.7
Oilseeds and products     12.706   15.564      33.942      37.1   36.7
  Soybeans                10.067   12.063      24.027      26.7   25.9
  Soybean meal             1.710    2.359       6.345       6.7    6.8
  Soybean oil              0.289    0.381       0.924       1.1    1.1
Beef, pork & variety meats 0.320    0.398       1.356       1.5    1.4
Poultry meat               0.656    0.688       2.553       2.6    2.6
Animal fats                0.043    0.057       1.028       0.9    0.9
Cotton & linters           0.396    0.401       1.648       1.6    1.6
Horticultural products     1.829    1.956       7.539       7.7    7.7
Other                      1.919    1.818       6.366       7.0    6.5
  Total agriculture       44.078   43.141     147.319     157.9  149.2
  Major bulk products 2/  33.528   31.524     105.797     114.6  106.1
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1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice,
coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.
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