Elarbara Atkinson

Technology and ar et Assessment Group

Energy alys s Program

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

1

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

OL TAR P 00 

Resear h ummary 

Barbara Atkinson 

Technology and Market Assessment Group 

Energy Analysis Program 

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

1 
",ograms !enti fled

• EPA Green Lights/Energy Star Buildings

FEMP Procurement Challenge

• FEMP Federal Relighting Initiative

• EPAct Voluntary Luminaire Program

NEMA Re-Electrify America

Utility Incentive Programs

• ASHRAE/IES Building Code

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

Pro rams Id ntified 

• EPA Green Lights/Energy Star Buildings 

• FEMP Procurement Challenge 

.• FEMP Federal Relighting Initiative 

• EP Act Voluntary Luminaire Program 

• NEMA Re-Electrify America 

• Utility Incentive Programs 

• ASHRAE/IES Building Code 

2 
pp1 al

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

upplemental Information 

3 
'EPA Green

Energy Star Buildings

Data

- Electronic Ballasts Installed 1992 1996

- Square Footage Retrofit 1992 1996

- Projected Square Footage Retrofit 1997 - 2015

Results

- Projected Electronic Ballasts Installed 1997 - 2015

Notes

- Projections after the year 2000 reflect EPA's estimates of where the

market can go

EPA Programs

Research and Development

Utility DSM Programs

Market Forces

4

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

• Data 

EPA Green i· hts 

Energy tar Buildings 

- Electronic Ballasts Installed 1992 - 1996 

- Square Footage Retrofit 1992 - 1996 

- Projected Square Footage Retrofit 1997 - 2015 

• Results 

- Projected Electronic Ballasts Installed 1997 - 2015 

• Notes 

- Projections after the year 2000 reflect EPA's estimates of where the 

market can go 

EP A Programs 

Research and Development 

Utility DSM Programs 

Market Forces 

4 
o dw"-le" I j" I L* g'ifing S

• Data

- Federally-Owned Floor Space, Commercial and

Industrial Buildings

- Potential ]Electronic Ballasts Inst alled,

Federally Owned Leased Space

Estimated Ballasts Installed for FederallyOwned Space

5

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

FE P Pro rams 

FRI ( ew and Reno.vated Lighting Systems) 

• Data 

- Federally-Owned Floor Space, Commercial and· 

Industrial Buildings 

- Potential Electronic Ballasts Installed, 

Federally Owned and Leased Space. 

• Results 

rrrrrr ~ 

- Estimated Ballasts Installed for FederallyOwned Space 

5 
Procurement Recommendations

(Replacement Ballasts and Luminaires)

• Data

- Sales from DLA Catalog

- Estimated Sales from GSA Federal Supply Schedule

• Results

- Estimated Potential Replacement Ballasts Affected

Issues

- FEMP has no historical data on FRI impacts

- Limited data on percent electronic ballast share total

federal replacement purchases

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

E P Pro rams 

Procurement Recommendations 

(Replacement Ballasts and Luminaires) 

• Data 

- Sales from DLA Catalog 

- Estimated Sales from GSA Federal Supply Schedule 

• Results 

- Estimated Potential Replacement Ballasts Affected 

• Issues 

- FEMP has no· historical data on FRJ impacts 

- Limited data on percent electronic ballast share of total 

federal replacement purchases 

6 
Percent Electronic Ballasts in New Luminaires

Sold dropped from Bureau of Census data

request

• Next Steps?

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aluntary • • 

Uffiln Ire ra r 

Data 

- Percent Electronic Ballasts in ew Luminaires 

Sold dropped from Bureau of Census data . 

request 

• ext Steps? 

!!rrst 7 
NEMA

• Data

- Educational program with business approach

- No projections of impact on electronic ballast sales

Next Steps

- Monitor program impacts or projections

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

Re-El ctrify II 

m fl a 

• Data 

- Educational program with business approach 

- No projections of impact on electronic ballast sales 

• Next Steps 

- Monitor program impacts or projections 

8 
Ut

- No historical data on electronic ballasts

installed through DSM programs

- No estimates of future impacts of utility

incentive programs, ESCOs, etc.

xt Steps?

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

• 

tility In entive Pro r m 

Data 

- No historical data on electronic ballasts 

installed through DSMprograms 

- 0 estimates of future impacts of utility 

incentive programs, ESCOs, etc. 

ext Steps? 

9 
• Data

- none available

Issues

- Minor effect from present code (90.1)

- Revised code impacts expected after 2005

- Only affects new construction

Next Steps?

10

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

AH Ell Building Cod s 

• Data 

- none available 

• Issues 

- Minor effect from present code (90.1) 

- Revised code impacts expected after 2005 

- Only affects new construction 

• Next Steps? 

10 
IStS

Percent Lighting Demand t by Efficient Fluorescent Technologies

• EPA Green Lights & Energy Star Buildings

• EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1997 Technology Cases:

- Reference Case

- 1997 Technology

- Advanced Technology Cost Reduction

- High Technology

11-

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

, 

Comparison of Bas ase Forecasts , . 

Percent Lighting Demand Met by Efficient Fluorescent Technologies 

• EPA Green Lights Energy Star Buildings 

• EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1997 Technology Cases: 

- Reference Case 

- 1997 Technology 

- Advanced Technology Cost Reduction 

- High Technology 

11' 
GG

Summary of Research on Voluntary Programs Impacts on Electronic Ballast Sales

Barbara Atkinson

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

17 March 1997

The Department of Energy is interested in quantifying the impacts of various voluntary programs

on the market for efficient fluorescent ballasts. The resulting estimates will serve as a background

for the base case assumptions used in projecting national energy savings. ,

Quantifying the impacts of voluntary programs is a challenge due to several factors:

® The lack of data on most programs

® The influence of the various programs on the market behavior of consumers compared

with their.market behavior without the programs.

® The interaction between voluntary programs and building codes (which are regulatory but

not component-based).

The objective of this research is two-fold:

® To estimate the impacts of various voluntary programs on electronic ballast sales during

1992 through 1996, and to project the future impacts.

® To compare projections of efficient lighting penetrations from several sources.

This memo summarizes progress to date on these topics.

1. Electronic Ballast Sales

The total U. S. fluorescent ballast sales, for ballasts- covered in the DoE analysis, are listed below.

The percentage of sales estimated to be electronic ballasts is also listed.

Total Electronic

Ballast Sales Ballast Percentage

1993 62 million 37%

1994 62 million 42%

1995 66 million 50%

A. EPA Green Lights and Energy Star Buildings Programs

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

Summary of Research on Voluntary Programs Impacts on Electronic Ballast Sales 

Barbara Atkinson 

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

17 March 1997 

The Department of Energy is interested in quantifYing the impacts of various voluntary programs 

on the market for efficient fluorescent ballasts. The resulting estimates will serve as a background 

for the base case assumptions used in projecting national energy savings. 

QuantifYing the impacts of voluntary programs is a challenge due to several factors: 

• The lack of data on most programs 

• The influence of the various programs on the market behavior of consumers compared 

with their market behavior without the programs. 

• The interaction between voluntary programs and building codes (which are regulatory but 

not component-based). 

The objective of this research is two-fold: 

.. To estimate the impacts of various voluntary programs on electronic ballast sales during 

1992 through 1996, and to project the future impacts. 

• To compare projections of efficient lighting penetrations from several sources. 

This memo summarizes progress to date on these topics. 

I. Electronic Ballast Sales 

The total U.S. fluorescent ballast sales, for ballasts-covered in the DoE analysis, are listed below. 

The percentage of sales estimated to be electronic ballasts is also listed. 

Total Electronic 

Ballast Sales Ballast Percentage 

1993 62 million 37% 

1994 62 million 42% 

1995 66 miflion 50% "- -

A. EPA Green Lights and Energy Star Buildings Programs 

---
The Green Lights Program, Marketing and Implementation Data Base (Program Snapshot) shows

the total sales of electronic ballasts for each year from 1992 - 1996. From EPA's forecast for the

revised Climate Change Action Plan', we have the historical and projected building floor space (in

square feet) retrofit from 1992 - 2015. From these EPA estimated the electronic ballasts that will

be used to retrofit this floor space from 1997 - 2015.

Note that these are EPA's estimates of the future market penetrations for electronic ballasts.

They account for past, present, and future drivers including the Green Lights and Energy Star

Buildings programs, the success of past R&D in developing the technologies, utility DSM in

jump-starting the market, and natural market penetration.

EPA projects that about 7 percent of commercial and industrial floor space will be retrofit by the

year 2000. By the year 2015, this increases to about 48 percent offloor space.

Green Lights and utility rebates : From the Green Lights Program Database , based on reports

submitted by Green Lights program participants on completed upgrades, we calculate that about

35% of building retrofit projects enjoyed utility rebates . However, the database does not link

these rebates specifically to electronic ballasts. To answer the question of whether the lack of

utility rebates will cause fewer ballast retrofits, EPA states that the internal rate of return for

electronic ballast retrofits is typically well over the Green Lights IRR criterion of 20%.

Therefore, EPA assumes that the retrofit rate will be unaffected as utility rebates diminish.

We have been unable to locate an independent assessment of the Green Lights program's

projections, dropout rates, etc. EPA asks its partners to retrofit 90% of their recruited floor

space, and estimates that they will convert all but 10% of this. Since partners pledge to retrofit

their floor space within 5 years, the first partners to join the program in 1991 and 1992 are just

finishing their upgrades. EPA attributes their higher dropout rates to early emphasis on

recruitment rather than assistance and follow-up.

B. Federal Energy Management Program

For background, we estimate that about 2 million ballasts are sold per year for federal buildings,

with 1 . 35 million for replacement of existing stock turnover .. The remaining 0.65 million are for

new construction or renovation. These numbers represent the percent of the total estimated

ballast stock that belongs to the federal sector . In 1995, there were a total of 560 million ballasts

in the commercial and industrial sectors from the COMMEND base case run for the 1996 draft

report. With a 12.5 year life (45000 hours/3600 hours), 45 million of these are needed for

replacement. The remaining 21 million are for renovation and new buildings . The General

Services Administration reports that for 1995, federally -owned commercial floor space is 1.99

billion square feet and industrial floor space is 0.08 billion square feet. This is about 3% of the

national total. The federal ballast estimates represent 3% of the total national ballast figures

described above.

'EPA projections have been revised due to funding cuts for program budgets.

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

The Green Lights Program, Marketing and Implementation Data Base (program Snapshot) shows 

the total sales of electronic ballasts for each year from 1992 - 1996. From EP A's forecast for the 

revised Climate Change Action Planl, we have the historical and projected building floor space (in 

square feet) retrofit from 1992 - 2015. From these EPA estimated the electronic ballasts that will - -

be used to retrofit this floor space from 1997 - 2015. 

Note that these are EPA's estimates of the future market penetrations for electronic ballasts. 

They account for past, present, and future drivers including the Green Lights and Energy Star 

Buildings programs, the success of past R&D in developing the technologies, utility DSM in 

jump-starting the market, and natural market penetration. 

EPA projects that about 7 percent of commercial and industrial floor space will be retrofit by the 

year 2000. By the year 2015, this increases to about 48 percent offloor space. 

Green Lights and utility rebates: From the Green Lights Program Database, based on reports 

submitted by Green Lights program participants on completed upgrades, we calculate that about 

35% of building retrofit projects enjoyed utility rebates. However, the database does not link 

these rebates specifically to electronic ballasts. To answer the question of whether the lack of 

utility rebates will cause fewer ballast retrofits, EPA states that the internal rate of return for 

electronic ballast retrofits is typically well over the Green Lights IRR criterion of20%. 

Therefore, EPA assumes that the retrofit rate will be unaffected as utility rebates diminish. 

We have been unable to locate an independent assessment of the Green Lights program's 

proj ections, dropout rates, etc. EPA asks its partners to retrofit 90% of their recruited floor 

space, and estimates that they will convert all but 10% of this. Since partners pledge to retrofit 

their floor space within 5 years, the first partners to join the program in 1991 and 1992 are just 

finishing their upgrades. EPA attributes their higher dropout rates to early emphasis on 

recruitment rather than assistance and follow-up. 

B. Federal Energy Management Program 

For background, we estimate that abou~ 2 million ballasts are sold per year for federal buildings, 

with 1.35 million for replacement of existing stock turnover .. The remaining 0.65 million are for 

new construction or renovation. These .numbers represent the percent of the total estimated 

ballast stock that belongs to the federal sector. In 1995, there were a total of 560 million ballasts 

in the commercial and industrial sectors from the COMMEND base case run for the 1996 draft 

report. With a 12.5 year life (45000 hours/3600 hours), 45 million of these are needed for 

replacement. The remaining 21 million are for renovation and new buildings. The General 

Services Administration reports that for 1995, federally-owned commercial floor space is l.99 

billion square "feet and industrial floor space is 0.08 billion square feet. This is about 3% of the 

national total. The federal ballast estimates represent 3% of the tot81 national ballast figures 

described above. 

lEP A projections have b~ revised due to funding cuts for program budgets. 
1. Federal Procurement Challenge

This program provides product energy-efficiency recommendations or voluntary specifications for

fluorescent ballasts and fluorescent luminaires. "-Building energy managers may purchase ballasts

directly from the Defense Logistics Agency (Defense General Supply Center) catalog or from

GSA Federal Supply Schedule contractors. However, they often purchase through a service

contract with a lighting management company. For a retrofit project that goes out to bid, their

contractors purchase ballasts from a variety of sources. Only a small fraction of these ballasts are

purchased through the DLA lighting catalog, which is the only source for which we can obtain a

detailed breakdown of ballast sales. There is no system for tracking purchases from most of the

other sources.

LBNL has estimated the number of magnetic and electronic ballasts sold through DLA under

present market conditions. However, most of these are already electronic ballasts, indicating a

modest potential impact on these sales from the Procurement Recommendations. The ballast

sales from the DLA catalog for 1994 and 1995 were:

1994 49.2 thousand

1995 75.6 thousand

We cannot assume that the DLA market shares are representative of other federal purchases. For

ballast purchases through contractors listed on the GSA Federal Supply Schedule, we can

indirectly estimate the total ballast sales from the dollar value of those sales. The total ballast

sales, in dollar value, for three years are:

1994 $104,684

1995 $147,296

1996 $ 64,326

Based on:average ballast prices from the DLA catalog, this implies that the number of ballasts

sold through the Federal Supply Schedule for each year was less than 5000.

For ballasts purchased by contractors for federal buildings, there is no straightforward method of

tracking the magnitude of these ballast purchases or the percentage that are electronic ballasts.

As shown by the DLA and GSA figures above, it is difficult to track the large majority of the 2

million ballasts sold to the federal sector each year. As a first cut, we assume that one-half of the

1.35 million replacement ballasts are now magnetic ballasts and would become electronic through

the Procurement Recommendations. The impacts begin in 1998 and continue for 7 years, after

which the ballasts in the stock that were already electronic begin to be replaced naturally with

electronic ballasts.

2. Federal Relighting Initiative

There has been no evaluation of the impacts of the FRI program on building retrofits. The

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

1. Federal Procurement Challenge 

This program provides product energy-efficiency recommendations or voluntary specifications for 

fluorescent ballasts and fluorescent luminaires. --Building energy managers may purchase ballasts 

directly from the Defense Logistics Agency (Defense General Supply Center) catalog or from 

GSA Federal Supply Schedule contractors. However, they often purchase through a service 

contract with a lighting management company. For a retrofit project that goes out to bid, their 

contractors purchase ballasts from a variety of sources. Only a small fraction of these ballasts are 

purchased through the DLA lighting catalog, which is the only source for which we can obtain a 

detailed breakdown of ballast sales. There is no system for tracking purchases from most of the 

other sources. 

LBNL has estimated the number of magnetic and electronic ballasts sold through DLA under 

present market conditions. However, most of these are already electronic ballasts, indicating a 

modest potential impact on these sales from the Procurement Recommendations. The ballast 

sales from the DLA catalog for 1994 and 1995 were: 

1994 49.2 thousand 

1995 75.6 thousand 

We cannot assume that the DLA market shares are representative of other federal purchases. For 

ballast purchases through contractors listed on the GSA Federal Supply Schedule, we can 

indirectly estimate the total ballast sales from the dollar value of those sales. The total ballast 

sales, in dollar value, for three years are: 

1994 $104,684 

1995 $147,296 

1996 $ 64,326 

Based on average ballast prices from the DLA catalog, this implie$ that the number of ballasts 

sold through the Federal Supply Schedule for each year was less than 5000. 

For ballasts purchased by contractors for federal buildings, there is no straightforward method of 

tracking the magnitude of these ballast purchases or the percentage that ~e electronic ballasts. 

As shown by the DLA and GSA figures above, it is difficult to track the large majority of the 2 

million ballasts sold to the federal sector each year. As a first cut, we assume that one-half of the 

i.35 million replacement ballasts are now magnetic ballasts and would become electronic through 

the Procurement Recommendations. The impacts begin in 1998 and continue for 7 years, after 

which the ballasts in the stock that were already electrmrlc begin to be replaced naturally with 

electronic ballasts. 

2. Federal Relighting Initiative 

There has been no evaluation of the impacts of theFRI program on building retrofits. The 

--
program concentrated on training and specifications. A survey of a subset of those in the training

courses will be performed, but this will not be specific to the impact on specific technologies.

In 1993 , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory prepared "Estimate of Federal Relighting

Potential and Demand for Energy -Efficient Lighting Products," a study of potential impacts of

FRI. This study included both federally owned and leased space, from the GSA Summary Report

of Real Property Owned by the United States (1989). Since we cannot assume that the federal

government would be able to retrofit its federally-leased space, we have calculated the federallyowned floor space using separate figures from GSA for 1995 for federally -owned and federallyleased space, as described in the first paragraph of this section. About 90% percent of federally

owned and leased space is federally -owned.

The report estimates the potential sales of 22 million electronic ballasts if all retrofit projects were

implemented immediately. Assuming that 90% of these are for federally-owned space, the total

potential is 19 . 8 million ballasts.

FRI and utility rebates: The report projects ballast retrofits under two scenarios, one with utility

rebates at 1992 levels projected through 1995 , and the other scenario with higher rebate levels

due to FRI. However, FRI did not track the actual retrofits made through the program during

these years. Also, utility rebates are expected to diminish from 1996 on.

In the absence of verifying data, we simply use the "FRI Scenario" estimates for ballasts installed

from 1992 - 1.996. Taking 90% of these values gives a total of 10. 5 million. The remaining 9.3

million ballasts are apportioned equally through 2002.

C. Utility Incentive Programs

Surprisingly, there has been no study on the total electronic ballast sales due to utility DSM

programs. We have contacted EPRI, Lighting Research Institute , Oak Ridge National

Laboratory, and LBNL's Utility Group, all of which inform us that no such estimates have been

compiled.

To attempt to estimate this, a proposed research project would extract data from the few utility

DSM reports with enough detail on ballast rebates. For, these programs, we could calculate the

average percentages of total DSM spending on lighting, and the number of electronic ballasts that

each percentage point implies. We could then make the assumption that these utility rebate

programs were representative of all utility programs , and using EIA-data on lighting DSM

expenditures, estimate the national electronic ballast number.

There are also no estimates of future utility DSM levels . Various sources agree that the rebates

are decreasing dramatically . Other utility incentive programs, such as procurement, support of

energy service companies, etc, may pick up some of the slack. However, in the current

competitive utility environment, there are no estimates of the magnitude of these programs.

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

program concentrated on training and specifications. A survey of a subset of those in the training 

courses will be performed, but this will not be specific to the impact on specific technologies. 

In 1993, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory prepared "Estimate of Federal Relighting 

Potential and Demand for Energy-Efficient Lighting Products," a study of potential impacts of 

FRI. This study included both federally owned and leased space, from the GSA Summary Report 

of Real Property Owned by the United States (1989). Since we cannot assume that the federal 

government would be able to retrofit its federally-leased space, we have calculated the federallyowned floor space using separate figures from GSA for 1995 for federally-owned and federallyleased space, as described in the first paragraph of this section. About 90% percent of federallyowned and leased space is federally-owned. 

The report estimates the potential sales of 22 million electronic ballasts if all retrofit projects were 

implemented immediately. Assuming that 90% of these are for federally-owned space, the total 

potential is 19.8 million ballasts. 

FRI and utility rebates: The report projects ballast retrofits under two scenarios, one with utility 

rebates at 1992 levels projected through 1995, and the other scenario with higher rebate levels 

due to FRI. However, FRI did not track the actual retrofits made through the program during 

these years. Also, utility rebates are expected to diminish from 1996 on. 

In the absence of verifying data, we simply use the "FRI Scenario" estimates for ballasts installed 

from 1992 - 1996. Taking 90% of these values gives a total of 19.5 million. The remaining 9.3 

million ballasts are apportioned equally through 2002. 

C. Utility Incentive Programs 

Surprisingly, there has been no study on the total eleCtronic ballast sales due to utility DSM 

programs. We have contacted EPRI, Lighting Research Institute, Oak Ridge National 

Laboratory, and LBNL's Utility Group, all of which inform us that no such estimates have been 

compiled. 

To attempt to estimate this, ~ proposed research project would extract data from the few utility 

DSM reports with enough detail on ballast rebates. For these programs, 'we .could calculate the 

average percentages of total DSM spending on lighting, and the number of electronic ballasts that 

each percentage point implies. We could then make the assumption that these utility rebate 

programs were representative of all utility programs, and using EIA-rlata on lighting DSM 

expenditures, estimate the national electronic ballast number. 

- There .are also no estimates of future utility DSM levels. Various sources agree that the rebates 

are decreasing dramatically. Other utility incentive programs, such as procurement, support of, 

energy service companies, etc, may pick up some of the slack. However, in the current 

competitive utility environment, there are no estimates of the magnitude of these programs. 

--
D. ASHRAE/IES Building Code

Under EPAct, the existing code is being adopted by each state. We are looking for a source of

estimates of likely impacts of the existing as well as the upcoming revised code. The new code,

still under public review, will have stricter watts/square foot limits; it was created using models

based on presently-available efficient lighting technologies, including electronic ballasts.

E. NEMA's Re-Electrify America

This program is in the beginning stages, and no estimates of potential impact have been

performed. Its goal is educational, using a business approach. It will complement the EPA Green

Lights program.

F. Voluntary Luminaire Program

Under the Energy Policy Act of 1992, a voluntary luminaire program was created by NEMA,

ALA, and other interested organizations. This program, based on the NEMA LE-5 method of

"luminaire efficacy rating," provides information on overall system efficacy for fluorescent

luminaires. Since LER is based on efficacy of the ballast/lamp system as well as the luminaire

efficiency, the use of an electronic ballast makes a large contribution to a higher LER rating.

Beginning in 1995, the Bureau of Census MA-36L report on luminaire sales began to track the

percentage of fluorescent luminaires sold with electronic ballasts. In the future we can use this

percentage to track the pattern of ballast sales in new luminaires.

II, Comparison of Efficient Lighting Projections

A. EIA/AEO

We have obtained projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy

Outlook (AEO) 1997. These projections are from the National _Energy Modeling System's AEO

1997 Technology Case runs. They forecast the percentage of lighting demand (in delivered

lumens) estimated to be met by electronic ballasts and other efficient lighting technologies for

each year through 2015 . Projections from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) are

made for four scenarios:

Reference Case

1997 Technology Case

(efficiency availability remains at 1997 levels throughout the forecast)

Advanced Technology Cost Reduction Case

(costs of high-efficiency technologies decline as much as 35% over the forecast, while the

costs of the other technologies remains the same)

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

D. ASHRAEIIES Building Code 

Under EP Act, the existing code is being adopted by each state. We are looking for a source of 

estimates of likely impacts of the existing as well as the upcoming revised code. The new code, 

still under public review, will have stricter watts/square foot limits; it was created using models 

based on presently-available efficient lighting technologies, including electronic ballasts. 

E. NEMA's Re-Electrify America 

This program is in the beginning stages, and no estimates of potential impact have been 

performed. Its goal is educational, using a business approach. It will complement the EPA Green 

Lights program. 

F. VoluJ)tary Luminaire Program 

Under the Energy Policy Act of 1992, a voluntary luminaire program was created by NEMA, 

ALA, and other interested organizations. This'program, based on the NEMA LE-5 method of 

"luminaire efficacy rating," provides information on overall system efficacy for fluorescent 

luminaires. Since LER is based on efficacy of the ballast/lamp system as well as the luminaire 

efficiency, the use of an electronic ballast makes a large contribution to a higher LER rating. 

Beginning in 1995, the Bureau of Census MA-36L report on luminaire sales began to track the 

percentage of fluorescent luminaires sold with electronic ballasts. In the future we can use this 

percentage to track the pattern of ballast sales in new luniinaires. 

n. Comparison of Efficient Lighting Projections 

A. EWABO 

We have obtained projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy 

Outlook (ABO) 1997. These projections are from the National , Energy Modeling System's ABO 

1997 Technology Case tuns. They forecast the percentage of lighting demand (in delivered 

lumens) estimated to be met by electronic ballasts and other efficient lighting technologies for 

each year through 2015. Projections from the National Energy Modelin~ System (NEMS) are 

made for four scenarios: ' 

Reference Case 

1997 Technology Case 

(efficiency availability remains at 1997 levels throughout the·forecast) 

Advanced Technology Cost Reduction Case 

(costs of high-efficiency technologies decline as much as 35% over the forecast, while the, 

costs of the other technologies remains the same) 

--
High Technology

(all consumers purchase the most efficient technology available)

B. EPA Programs

The Environmental Protection Agency's Atmospheric Pollution Prevention Division, Climate

Change Action Plan Tracking System contains its forecast for the lighting demand met by efficient

lighting technologies from 1994 - 2015. This forecast corresponds to that of the EIA/AEO

forecast.

EPA creates its penetration estimates by adding to AEO's Reference Case described above.

Again, this is EPA's forecast of where the market can go as influenced by the Green Lights and

Energy Star Buildings programs, utility DSM, and market impacts.

The AEO 1997 also tries to capture this natural market penetration , including consideration of

utility DSM.

Summary and Next Steps

We have calibrated the base case electronic ballast sales to those supplied by NEMA for the years

1993, 1994, and 1995. We are estimating the impact of assumed conversion rates on the sales of

electronic ballasts, taking into account voluntary programs and market forces.

We have identified scenarios that give ranges for the potential impacts of voluntary programs.

We are comparing COMMEND base case results with the shares of lighting demand met by

electronic ballasts in the EPA and AEO forecasts discussed above.

We will continue to seek estimates of voluntary program impacts. We will submit the

assumptions for stakeholder review, and incorporate their comments and additional research into

the future COMMEND base cases.

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

High Technology 

(all consumers purchase the most efficient technology available) 

B. EPA Programs 

The Environmental Protection Agency's Atmospheric Pollution Prevention Division, Climate 

Change Action Plan Tracking System contains its forecast for the lighting demand met by efficient 

lighting technologies from 1994 - 2015. This forecast corresponds to that of the EW ABO 

forecast. 

EPA creates its penetration estimates by adding to ABO's Reference Case described above. 

Again, this is EPA's forecast of where the market can go as influenced by the Green Lights and 

Energy Star Buildings programs, utility DSM, and market impacts. 

The AEO 1997 also tries to capture this natural market penetration, including consideration of 

utility DSM. ' 

Summary and Next Steps 

We have calibrated the base case electronic ballast sales to those supplied by NEMA for the years 

1993, 1994, and 1995. We are estimating the impact of assumed conversion rates on the sales of 

electronic ballasts, taking into account voluntary programs and market forces. 

We have identified scenarios that give ranges for the potential impacts of voluntary programs. 

We are comparing COMMEND base case results with the shares of lighting demand met by 

electronic ballasts in the EPA and AEO forecasts discussed above. 

We will continue to seek estimates of voluntary program impacts .. We will submit the 

assumptions for stakeholder review, and incorporate their comments and additional research into 

the future COMMEND base cases. 

"-

. , 

--
millions of electronic Ballasts

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EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

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2012 

2013 

2014 

2015 

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Provided by Efficient Technologies

-1, Awn "0

2000 2005 2010 2015

Projection

AEO Baseline,

Reference Case

(price reduction

for efficient

-x- AEO High

Case (technical

potential)

LBNL

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

. lBNL 

70.0% 

30.0% 

20.0% 

Percent of Lighting D mand 

Provided by Efficient Technologies 

-+- EPA Projection 

-iJ-AEO Baseline, 

Reference Case 

-A-AEO ATCR Case 

(price reduction 

for efficient tech) 

0.0% -f-------.-----r---~--__. 

-*- AEO High Tech 

Case (technical 

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 potential) 
GG

Ballast Sales

Commercial and Industrial Buildings

(interior and exterior)

EPA forecast through 2000 is Green Lights/Energy Star Buildings only.

EPA forecast after 2000 is for all GS/ESB and other market influencees.

Number of ballasts, floor space , and percent floor space are from EPA.

EPA and FEMP FRI apply primarily to existing buildings.

FEMP Procurement applies to replacement ballasts.

Total Electronic EPA FEMP FEMP EPA/FEMP Utility ASHRAE/ EPA

Ballasts

(millions)

Ballasts GL & ESB Procure . FRI

(millions) (millions) (millions) (millions)

Totals DSM IES Projection

(millions)

1992 0.11 1.26 1.36 NA NA

1993 62.18 23.07 0.68 2.46 3.14

1994 62. 15 25.98 1.83 2.48 4.31

1995 66.12 33.13 3.65 2.46 6.11

1996 3.43 1 .88 5.31

1997 8.17 1.86 10.03

1998 10.51 0.68 1 .86 13.05

1999 12.02 0.68 1.86 14.55

2000 12.53 0.68 1.86 15.06

2001 0.68 1 . 86 17.88

2002 0.68 15.39

2003 0.68 15.98

2004 0.68 17.74

2005 20.61

2006 23.64

2007 26.98

2008 28.31

2009 33.80

2010 32.50

2011 41.05

2012 38.19

2013 43.28

2014 40:51

2015 40.77

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 0GG

Ballast Sales 

Commercial and Industrial Buildings 

(interior and exterior) 

EPA forecast through 2000 is Green Lights/Energy Star Buildings only. 

EPA forecast after 2000 is for all GS/ESB and other market influencees. 

Number of ballasts, floor space, and percent floor space are from EPA. 

EPA and FEMP FRI apply primarily to existing buildings. 

FEMP Procurement applies to replacement ballasts. 

Total Electronic EPA FEMP FEMP 

FRI 

EPAIFEMP Utility 

Ballasts 

(millions) 

1992 

1993 

1994 

1995 

1996 

1997 

1998 

1999 

2000 

2001 

2002 

2003 

2004 

2005 

2006 

2007 

2008 

2009 

2010 

2011 

2012 

2013 

2014 

2015 

62.18 

62.15 

66.12 

Ballasts GL & ESB Procure 

(millions) (millions) (millions) 

23.07 

25.98 

33.13 

0.11 

0.68 

1.83 

3.65 

3.43 

8.17 

10.51 

12.02 

12.53 

0.68 

0.68 

0.68 

0.68 

0.68 

0.68 

0.68 

(millions) 

1.26 

2.46 

2.48 

2.46 

1.88 

1.86 

1.86 

1.86 

1.86 

1.86 

Totals DSM 

1.36 NA 

3.14 

4.31 

6.11 

5.31 

10.03 

13.05 

14.55 

15.06 

ASHRAEI EPA 

IES Projection 

NA 

(millions) 

17.88 

15.39 

15.98 

17.74 

20.61 

23.64 

26.98 

28.31 

33.80 

32.50 

41.05 

38.19 

43.28 

40~51 

40.77