OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY 
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board           February 24, 1997
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department 
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR
U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS (AES-13) will be available 2-3 working days 
following release of this summary.  
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FISCAL 1997 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST RAISED $1 BILLION TO $56.5 BILLION

The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is raised $1 billion to
$56.5 billion, reflecting actual shipments to date and changed prospects since
December.  Stronger than expected export volume and prices of soybeans and
cotton will more than offset reduced prospects of wheat and livestock exports. 
Forecast exports for soybeans and products and cotton are raised $800 million
and $500 million, respectively, largely reflecting heavy shipments to China,
the European Union, and Mexico.  Forecast total export volume is reduced
slightly to 145.4 million tons.

U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are expected at $34 billion,
unchanged from the previous forecast.  The coffee import value is higher than
previously indicated, largely because of rising prices due to low stocks in
consuming countries and uncertain South American supplies.  Higher beef
imports are offset by lower expected live animal imports.

The fiscal 1997 agricultural trade surplus forecast is raised $1 billion to
$22.5 billion.

          Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1992-1997
                         -- Year ending September 30 --                     
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         : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal :     Forecast 
Item     :  1992  :  1993  :  1994  :  1995  :  1996  :    Fiscal 1997
         :        :        :        :        :        :   Dec.  :   Feb.    
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         :                      -- Billion dollars --
         :
Exports  :   42.5      42.7     43.9     54.6     59.8     55.5      56.5
         :
Imports  :   24.3      24.5     26.4     29.6     32.4     34.0      34.0
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Trade    :
 balance :   18.2      18.2     17.5     25.0     27.4     21.5      22.5
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         :                     -- Million metric tons --
Export   :
 volume  :  143.6     146.4    127.5    169.7    158.4    146.7     145.4
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This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the February 12, 1997, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.


          Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1995-97   
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                        :   October-December  :  Fiscal  :    Fiscal 1997
      Commodity         :    1995  :   1996   :   1996   :     Forecast
                        :          :          :          :   Dec.   :    Feb. 
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                        :              --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/     :     5.409      4.854     21.553      16.4       16.2
  Wheat & flour         :     1.734      1.118      7.032       3.9        3.6
  Rice                  :      .276       .304      1.004        .9        1.0
  Coarse grains 2/      :     2.318      2.339      9.338       7.3        7.3
    Corn                :     2.058      2.093      8.369       6.5        6.4
  Feeds and fodders     :      .657       .670      2.627       2.7        2.7

Oilseeds and products   :     2.672      3.907      9.670       9.8       10.7
  Soybeans              :     1.784      2.797      6.312       6.4        7.1
  Soybean meal          :      .271       .463      1.305       1.3        1.5
  Soybean oil           :      .105       .160       .272        .4         .5
                                
Livestock products      :     2.127      1.890      8.067       8.7        8.5
  Beef, pork &
    variety meats       :     1.115       .927      4.343       4.9        4.7
  Hides & skins,
    incl. furs          :      .399       .397      1.677       1.7        1.6
Poultry & products      :      .714       .815      2.730       3.0        3.0
Dairy products          :      .183       .174       .719        .7         .7
Tobacco, unmanufactured :      .434       .432      1.393       1.4        1.4
Cotton & linters        :      .972       .684      3.028       2.1        2.6
Seeds                   :      .202       .282       .727        .8         .8
Horticultural products  :     2.614      2.781     10.029      10.5       10.5
  Fruits & preparations :      .835       .813      3.319       3.5        3.5
  Vegetables &
    preparations        :      .598       .634      2.423       2.6        2.6
  Tree nuts &
    preparations        :      .463       .522      1.374       1.3        1.3
Sugar, tropical,
  and other             :      .474       .535      1.888       2.0        2.1

   Total 3/             :    15.801     16.354     59.804      55.5       56.5
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         Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1995-97
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                        :   October-December   :  Fiscal  :   Fiscal 1997
      Commodity         :    1995   :  1996    :   1996   :     Forecast
                        :           :          :          :  Dec.   :   Feb.  
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                        :            --Million metric tons--
Wheat                   :     8.754      5.989     33.716      21.5       20.5
Wheat flour             :      .132       .145       .470        .5         .6
Rice                    :      .773       .786      2.831       2.3        2.4
Coarse grains 2/        :    16.872     16.290     58.656      56.0       55.0
   Corn                 :    15.074     14.571     52.681      49.5       48.5
Feeds & fodders         :     3.231      2.999     12.065      12.8       12.4
Oilseeds and products   :     9.144     12.706     30.759      32.7       33.6
  Soybeans              :     6.873     10.067     22.372      23.7       24.4
  Soybean meal          :     1.295      1.710      5.445       5.7        6.0
  Soybean oil           :      .168       .289       .450        .8         .8
Beef, pork &
  variety meats         :      .349       .320      1.410       1.5        1.5
Poultry meat            :      .606       .650      2.330       2.6        2.7
Animal fats             :      .405       .261      1.376       1.6        1.4
Cotton & linters        :      .543       .396      1.703       1.4        1.5
Horticultural products  :     1.838      1.829      7.139       7.5        7.5
Other                   :     1.519      1.744      5.917       6.3        6.3
   Total agriculture    :    44.166     44.078    158.372     146.7      145.4
   Major bulk prod. 4/  :    32.017     31.773    119.278     104.9      103.8
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 1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.  4/ Includes wheat,
rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.