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OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY                August 31, 1995
              Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S.
AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is available 2-3 working days following release of this
summary.
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U.S. Agricultural Exports Forecast at $53 Billion in Fiscal 1995, $54.5 billion
in Fiscal 1996
 
The fiscal 1995 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is revised upward $1.5
billion to $53 billion. Improved prospects for corn, oilseeds, and livestock
products have offset slower cotton shipments. This forecast reflects
strengthening export prices for grains and rising foreign demand for U.S. corn,
soybeans and products, red meat, and poultry products since May.  Export volume
is expected to be 163.1 million tons, the highest since fiscal 1980.
 
U.S. exports in fiscal 1996 are projected to rise to $54.5 billion. Stronger
expected coarse grain, wheat, oilseed, and horticultural exports will boost value
despite reduced prospects for cotton. Horticultural exports are expected to rise
nearly $1 billion, and slight increases are projected for livestock and poultry
product exports.  Export volume is projected to decline to 156.5 million tons
because of continued tight global grain and oilseed markets and higher prices.  
 
The fiscal 1995 forecast for U.S. agricultural imports is reduced $500 million to
$29 billion because of lower than anticipated beef import value and sharply
reduced coffee prices.  Import value is expected to remain at $29 billion in
fiscal 1996. 
 
The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is forecast at $24 billion in fiscal 1995 and
$25.5 billion in fiscal 1996.  The 1996 surplus would be the highest since fiscal
1981's record $26.6 billion.
 
          Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1991-1996
                        -- Year beginning October 1 --                     
         :        :        :        :        :    Forecast     :  Projected
Item     :  1991  :  1992  :  1993  :  1994  :      1995       :     1996
        :        :        :        :        :  May   :  Aug.  :            
         :                      -- Billion dollars --
         :
Exports  :         37.5   42.3    42.5    43.5   51.5    53.0    54.5
         :
Imports  :         22.6   24.3    24.5    26.4   29.5    29.0    29.0
         :                                                                  
Trade    :
 balance :         14.9   18.0    18.0    17.1   22.0    24.0    25.5
         :                                                                  
         :                       -- Million tons --
Export   :
 volume  :        129.4  143.6   146.4   127.4  159.2   163.1   156.5
         :                                                                  
This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the August 11, 1995, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
 
       Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1993-96           
 
                             :  October-June   : Fiscal :  Fiscal 1995  :  Fiscal
      Commodity              : 1993/94:1994/95 :  1994  :    Forecast   :   1996
                             :        :        :        :  May  : Aug.  :
Projected 
                             :              --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/          :   10.258 12.555  13.413  16.0  16.9   17.5
  Wheat & flour              :    3.204  3.596   4.228   5.1   5.0    5.4
  Rice                       :     .708   .820    .891    .9   1.0    1.0
  Coarse grains 2/           :    3.545  5.137   4.569   6.4   7.0    7.1
    Corn                     :    2.966  4.559   3.817   5.6   6.2    6.4
  Feeds and fodders          :    1.732  1.893   2.277   2.2   2.5    2.6
                             :
Oilseeds and products        :    5.638  7.309   6.975   8.2   8.7    8.9
  Soybeans                   :    3.514  4.253   4.161   4.8   5.0    5.3
  Soybean meal               :     .806   .844   1.013    .9   1.0    1.0
  Soybean oil                :     .296   .721    .433    .8    .8     .6
                             :
Livestock products           :    4.616  5.769   6.320   6.9   7.3    7.6
  Beef, pork & variety meats :    2.325  2.909   3.206   3.6   3.8    3.9
  Hides & skins, incl. furs  :    1.027  1.283   1.423   1.6   1.7    1.8
Poultry & products           :    1.266  1.618   1.720   2.1   2.2    2.4
Dairy products               :     .642   .606    .832    .8    .8     .9
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :    1.075  1.116   1.260   1.4   1.3    1.3
Cotton & linters             :    1.774  3.126   2.306   4.0   3.7    2.9
Seeds                        :     .515   .560    .619    .7    .7     .7
Horticultural products       :    6.017  6.956   8.098   9.4   9.4   10.3
  Fruits & preparations      :    2.189  2.425   3.047   3.4   3.4    3.7
  Vegetables & preparations  :    1.654  2.014   2.169   2.6   2.6    2.9
  Tree nuts & preparations   :     .889   .830   1.124   1.1   1.1    1.2
Sugar, tropical, and other   :    1.454  1.450   1.931   2.0   2.0    2.0
                             : 
   Total 3/                  :   33.255 41.066  43.474  51.5  53.0   54.5
                             :                                                    
 
      Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1993-96           
 
                             :  October-June   : Fiscal : Fiscal 1995  :  Fiscal
      Commodity              : 1993/94:1994/95 :  1994  :  Forecast    :   1996
                             :        :        :        :  May  : Aug. :
Projected  
                             :            --Million metric tons--
Wheat                        :   23.298 22.907  31.132  33.0  31.0   30.5
Wheat flour                  :     .725   .894   1.037   1.1   1.2    1.0
Rice                         :    1.903  3.017   2.438   3.0   3.6    3.4
Coarse grains 2/             :   29.908 47.418  39.845  58.4  61.8   56.5
   Corn                      :   24.885 42.085  33.057  51.5  55.0   51.0
Feeds & fodders              :    9.084 10.147  11.797  12.4  13.3   13.3
Oilseeds and products        :   19.602 27.629  24.154  31.1  32.4   31.2
  Soybeans                   :   13.642 19.267  16.364  21.8  22.5   21.8
  Soybean meal               :    3.806  4.800   4.859   5.4    5.7   5.3
  Soybean oil                :     .469  1.089    .694   1.1   1.2    1.0
Beef, pork & variety meats   :     .742   .916   1.025   1.1   1.2    1.2
Poultry meat                 :    1.001  1.373   1.364   1.8   1.8    2.0
Animal fats                  :1    .008  1.344   1.341   1.5   1.7    1.7
Cotton & linters             :    1.296  1.863   1.639   2.3   2.1    1.7
Horticultural products       :    4.884  5.469   6.600   7.5   7.5    8.0
Other                        :    3.335  3.409   5.042   6.0   5.5    6.0
   Total agriculture         :   97.704        127.296 127.414      159.2    
163.1     156.5
   Major bulk products 4/    :   70.047 94.472  91.418 118.5 121.0  113.9
                             :                                                    
 
 1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.  4/ Includes wheat,
rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.
 
Printed copies of the full text of Agricultural Exports will be available in
about 2 weeks. For further information, contact Joel Greene at (202) 219-0816.
Summaries and text of Situation and Outlook reports are also available
electronically. For details, call (202) 720-9045.
 
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