OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS                  June 10, 1997
               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
====================================================================
OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published by the Economic
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FISCAL 1997 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST REMAINS AT $56.5 BILLION;
IMPORTS UP $1.5 BILLION

The forecast for fiscal 1997 U.S. agricultural exports is unchanged 
at $56.5 billion. Since February, decreased prospects for coarse grain
and livestock product exports are offset by gains in wheat, cotton,
soybean meal, and horticultural products. Higher projected wheat and
cotton shipments result in a $200-million increase for each. Continued
strong global demand raises the value of U.S. soybean meal exports
$100 million. Horticultural exports are raised $100 million on
increased tree nut, wine, and essential oil exports. The forecast for
total export volume is reduced nearly 2 million tons to 143.5 million
tons.

U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are forecast at $35.5
billion, $1.5 billion higher than in February. Higher import demand
for beef, grains, and vegetables account for most of the increase.
Higher prices for oilseeds are expected to boost import value. The
value of coffee imports is increased slightly to reflect continued
strong prices.

The fiscal 1997 agricultural trade surplus forecast is reduced to $21
billion.


          Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1992-1997

                         -- Year ending September 30 --                     
     
         : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal :     Forecast 
Item     :  1992  :  1993  :  1994  :  1995  :  1996  :    Fiscal 1997
         :        :        :        :        :        :   Feb. :   May     
     
         :                      -- Billion dollars --
         :
Exports  :  42.5     42.7    43.9      54.6    59.8      56.5      56.5
         :
Imports  :  24.3     24.5    26.4      29.6    32.4      34.0      35.5
         :
Trade    :
 balance :  18.2     18.2    17.5      25.0    27.4      22.5      21.0

         :                     -- Million metric tons --
         :     
Export   :
 volume  : 143.6    146.4   127.5     169.7   158.4     145.4     143.5

This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 12, 1997, WORLD
AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES.

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released May 29, 1997.

Contents

Fiscal 1997 Agricultural Export Forecast Remains at $56.5 Billion;
  Imports Up $1.5 Billion
Commodity Highlights
Economic Outlook
Regional Highlights
U.S. Agricultural Export Programs
Import Highlights

Tables

Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 1992-97
Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1995-97
Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1995-97
Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1995-97
Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1995-97
Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 1995-97
Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1995-97

Coordinator (ERS):

Joel Greene (202) 219-0649

Commercial Agriculture Division
Economic Research Service (ERS)

Coordinators (FAS):

Michael Dwyer (202) 720-3124
Ernest Carter (202) 720-2922
Office of Deputy Administrator
Commodity and Marketing Programs
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)


The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports are based on
information provided by the following analysts in the Commercial Agriculture
Division of the Economic Research Service and in the Commodity Divisions of the
Foreign Agricultural Service. Editorial support is furnished by Martha R.
Evans, Information Services Division, ERS. All telephone numbers are area code
202.

ERS:  Karen Ackerman (Export Programs, 501-8511); Ed Allen (Wheat and Coarse
Grains, 219-0831); Mark Ash (Oilseeds, 219-0712); Nathan Childs (Rice, 
501-8513); Mark Gehlhar (Imports, 501-8525); Ronald Gustafson (Beef, 219-0848);
Mildred Haley (Pork, 219-0833); David Harvey (Poultry, 219-0839); John Love
(Horticultural Products, 219-1268); Stephen MacDonald (Cotton, 219-1179);
Stacey Rosen (Food Aid, 501-8445).

FAS:  Peter Burr (Tobacco and Seeds, 720-9497); Alan Holz (Oilseeds, 720-0143);
Linda Kotschwar (Grains and Feeds, 690-4134); Dee Linse (Export Programs, 
720-9847); Nancy Morrison (Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry, 720-8252); Debra
Pumphrey (Horticultural and Tropical Products, 720-8899); Anita Regmi (Cotton,
720-9510).

Regional information can be provided by the following analysts in the
Commercial Agriculture Division, ERS:  Chris Bolling (Brazil, 219-0668); Nancy
Cochrane (Central and Eastern Europe, 219-0650); Hunter Colby (China, 
219-0669); Frederick Crook (Hong Kong, 219-0002); John Dyck (Japan and South
Korea, 219-0698); Anwarul Hoque (South Asia, 219-0665); Sophia Wu Huang
(Taiwan, 219-0679); Elizabeth Jones (European Union, 219-0619); Michael Kurtzig
(North Africa and the Middle East, 219-0636); Jay Mitchell (Newly Independent
States, 501-8330); Daniel Plunkett (Mexico, 219-0670); Jim Stout (Canada,
 219-0678); Gary Vocke (Southeast Asia, 501-5575).

The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports is published in February, May,
August, and November/December. The next issue is scheduled for release on
August 28, 1997.


Commodity Highlights

The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. wheat and flour exports is raised 1 million
tons and $200 million from USDA's February forecast to 22.1 million tons valued
at $3.8 billion. U.S. wheat export volume is raised 1 million tons because of
the expectation of larger global imports. The forecast for wheat flour remains
unchanged.

The forecast for U.S. coarse grain shipments in fiscal 1997 is lowered 2.2
million tons and $400 million from the February forecast to 52.8 million tons
valued at $6.9 billion. This revision is due to a 2-million-ton reduction in
corn exports and a 200,000-ton reduction in sorghum exports. Corn exports are
now forecast at 46.5 million tons valued at $6.1 billion. The expected average
price of corn remains largely unchanged. The forecast for U.S. corn shipments
is reduced primarily because of increased export competition from China. Since
February, China's 1996/97 corn export forecast is raised from 1 million tons to
2.5 million tons. Also contributing to the decline is Taiwan's falling demand
for imported feedstuffs due to hog inventory reductions following the outbreak
of foot and mouth disease.

The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. rice exports is raised 100,000 tons to 2.5
million tons, but value remains unchanged at $1 billion. Foreign demand for
U.S. rice remains strong and tight domestic supplies have kept prices higher
than a year ago. The improved export outlook is due to unexpected strong sales
to Latin American countries over the past few months.

The forecast for fiscal 1997 exports of U.S. oilseeds and products is lowered
300,000 tons to 33.3 million tons, however total value is raised $100 million
to $10.8 billion. The U.S. oilseed forecast is revised because of an improved
outlook for soybean meal shipments and higher average prices for soybeans and
soybean meal. The soybean meal forecast is increased 100,000 tons and $100
million to 6.1 million tons valued at $1.6 billion. Continued strong foreign
demand (especially from China) and reduced exports from Brazil are boosting the
volume and value of U.S. soybean meal exports. Since February, the outlook for
U.S. soybean exports is reduced 300,000 tons to 24.1 million tons due to a
sharp upward revision in the export forecast for Brazilian soybeans. Brazil
removed an export tax which has resulted in increased soybean exports this
year. Higher U.S. soybean prices moderate the decline in export value, as
soybeans are revised downward $100 million to $7 billion.

The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. cotton exports is raised 100,000 tons and
$200 million from the February forecast to 1.6 million tons valued at $2.8
billion. The improved outlook is mainly due to increased foreign demand and
reduced export competition. In particular, U.S. sales prospects to China and
Mexico have improved. Argentina's production and export estimates were revised
downward since February.

The forecast for fiscal 1997 exports of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy
products is reduced $200 million from the February forecast but remains a
record $11.9 billion. While the beef and pork export forecast remains unchanged
at a record 1.5 million tons, export value is lowered $100 million to $4.6
billion. The average export price for beef is lowered due to the continued
slower pace of sales to Japan, a market which buys higher priced U.S. beef. The
pace of Japan's beef imports from all countries remains slow as a result of
consumer concern over food safety issues unrelated to U.S. products. Rising U.S.
beef exports to Mexico partially offset slower sales to Japan. The outlook for
U.S. pork exports has improved with the expectation of increased sales to Japan
beginning in the fourth quarter, the result of a foot and mouth disease outbreak
in Taiwan. The export forecast for poultry and products is reduced $100 million
but remains a record $2.9 billion. Strong gains in lower priced poultry meat
exports reduces the average price of exports, and the pace of broiler meat
sales to Japan and Hong Kong has slowed.


Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1995-97

                             :    October-March    :  Fiscal  :   Fiscal 1997
      Commodity              :  1995/96 : 1996/97  :   1996   :    Forecast
                             :          :          :          : Feb.  :  May  
                             :     
                             :              --Billion dollars--
                             :
Grains and feeds 1/          : 11.030      8.913     21.553     16.2     16.0
  Wheat & flour              :  3.446      1.960      7.032      3.6      3.8
  Rice                       :   .541       .578      1.004      1.0      1.0
  Coarse grains 2/           :  4.909      4.190      9.338      7.3      6.9
    Corn                     :  4.361      3.732      8.369      6.4      6.1
  Feeds and fodders          :  1.365      1.362      2.627      2.7      2.6
                             :
Oilseeds and products        :  5.837      7.414      9.670     10.7     10.8
  Soybeans                   :  3.965      4.961      6.312      7.1      7.0
  Soybean meal               :   .668      1.113      1.305      1.5      1.6
  Soybean oil                :   .199       .341       .272       .5       .5
                             :
Livestock products           :  4.078      3.727      8.067      8.5      8.3
  Beef, pork & variety meats :  2.176      1.842      4.343      4.7      4.6
  Hides & skins, incl. furs  :   .787       .860      1.677      1.6      1.7
Poultry & products           :  1.356      1.488      2.730      3.0      2.9
Dairy products               :   .360       .360       .719       .7       .7
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :   .855       .893      1.393      1.4      1.4
Cotton & linters             :  2.313      1.547      3.028      2.6      2.8
Seeds                        :   .460       .596       .727       .8       .9
Horticultural products       :  4.901      5.308     10.019     10.5     10.6
  Fruits & preparations      :  1.586      1.579      3.311      3.5      3.3
  Vegetables & preparations  :  1.190      1.302      2.423      2.6      2.6
  Tree nuts & preparations   :   .738       .776      1.374      1.3      1.4
Sugar, tropical, and other   :   .880       .994      1.898      2.1      2.1
                             :
   Total 3/                  : 32.071     31.240     59.804     56.5     56.5


         Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1995-97      

                             :    October-March    :  Fiscal  :   Fiscal 1997
      Commodity              :  1995/96 : 1996/97  :   1996   :    Forecast
                             :          :          :          :   Feb. :  May    
                             :
                             :              --Million metric tons--
                             :
Wheat                        :  16.814     10.703     33.716     20.5   21.5
Wheat flour                  :    .218       .256       .470       .6     .6
Rice                         :   1.524      1.501      2.831      2.4    2.5
Coarse grains 2/             :  33.663     30.746     58.656     55.0   52.8
   Corn                      :  30.069     27.284     52.681     48.5   46.5
Feeds & fodders              :   6.661      6.225     12.065     12.4   12.2
Oilseeds and products        :  19.342     23.661     30.759     33.6   33.3
  Soybeans                   :  14.563     17.641     22.372     24.4   24.1
  Soybean meal               :   2.952      4.109      5.445      6.0    6.1
  Soybean oil                :    .329       .621       .450       .8     .8
Beef, pork & variety meats   :    .685       .628      1.410      1.5    1.5
Poultry meat                 :   1.168      1.245      2.330      2.7    2.5
Animal fats                  :    .789       .487      1.376      1.4    1.0
Cotton & linters             :   1.286       .906      1.703      1.5    1.6
Horticultural products       :   3.589      3.681      7.139      7.5    7.5
Other                        :   2.927      3.293      5.917      6.3    6.5
   Total agriculture         :  88.666     83.332    158.372    145.4  143.5
   Major bulk products 4/    :  67.850     61.497    119.278    103.8  102.5 

 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats,
and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice,
coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.


The forecast for exports of U.S. horticultural products in fiscal 1997 is
raised $100 million to a record $10.6 billion. This outlook represents a 
6-percent improvement over the previous year largely due to steady export
growth to key Asian Pacific Rim countries and Canada, and the expectation of
continued sales recovery to Mexico. The upward revision from the February
forecast is mainly due to rising exports of tree nuts, essential oils, wine,
and miscellaneous food preparations which more than offset a downward revision
in fresh and processed fruit exports. The forecast for fruits and preparations
is reduced $200 million to $3.3 billion largely due to the slower pace of fresh
grapefruit, table grape, and strawberry shipments to date. This is the result
of increased competition from grapefruit supplied by Australia and Israel, and
reduced U.S. table grape and strawberry supplies available for export. The U.S.
export forecast for fresh and processed vegetables remains unchanged at a
record $2.6 billion, and the forecast for tree nuts is raised $100 million to a
record $1.4 billion.

Economic Outlook

The outlook for 1997 world gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.9 percent
in 1997 is slightly better than earlier anticipated and about the same as in
1996. Upward revisions for income growth in the United States and Canada to 2.8
percent and 3 percent, respectively, boost the developed country income outlook
to 2.3 percent. Growth in Japan has been revised upwards since February, but
still remains sluggish at 1.8 percent. Income growth in developing countries is
expected at 5.6 percent, led by upward revisions in Mexico (5.7 percent),
Brazil (4 percent), Thailand (7.2 percent), and Indonesia (7 percent).

Although the U.S. dollar has strengthened during the first half of 1997, and is
expected to remain above 1996, the effect on agricultural exports is moderated
by continued strong foreign income growth and lower agricultural export prices.
The Japanese and European markets are likely to be affected the most by the
dollar's rise as the dollar has appreciated about 10 percent vis-a-vis the
Japanese yen and German mark during the first quarter of 1997. However, in the
emerging markets of Asia, the dollar has depreciated slightly on an
agricultural trade weighted basis.

Regional Highlights

Prospects for U.S. agricultural exports to Canada and South Korea have improved
since February, while exports to Japan, the United States' largest market, are
expected lower. The forecast for exports to Canada is revised upward $300
million to a record $6.5 billion. Exports to Canada during the first half of
fiscal 1997 were $3.2 billion, 11 percent higher than the previous year.
Exports in almost every commodity group have risen in 1997, and grain products,
vegetable oils, and fresh and processed vegetables are likely to gain the most.


        Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1995-97 1/      

                            :    October-March    :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal 1997
          Region            :  1995/96 : 1996/97  :   1996   :   Forecast  
                            :           :         :          :  Feb. :  May  
                            :
                            :                --Billion dollars--
                            :
Western Europe              :  5.848     5.991      9.533      9.3     9.4
  European Union            :  5.646     5.746      9.171      9.0     9.0
  Other Western Europe      :   .203      .245       .362       .3      .4
Central and Eastern Europe  :   .215      .225       .408       .4      .4
Newly Independent States 2/ :   .914      .872      1.667      1.9     1.7
  Russia                    :   .647      .687      1.252      1.5     1.5
Asia                        : 13.939    13.359     25.970     24.3    24.1
  Japan                     :  6.049     5.642     11.839     11.4    11.0
  China                     :  1.207     1.223      1.829      2.0     2.0
  Other East Asia           :  4.169     4.238      8.191      7.5     7.6
    Taiwan                  :  1.441     1.448      2.928      2.6     2.5
    South Korea             :  1.963     1.983      3.732      3.3     3.5
    Hong Kong               :   .765      .808      1.530      1.6     1.6
  Southeast Asia            :  2.049     1.862      3.381      3.0     3.0
    Philippines             :   .455      .455       .905       .7      .8
  South Asia                :   .465      .393       .564       .4      .5
    Pakistan                :   .290      .239       .394       .3      .3
Middle East                 :  1.468     1.246      2.593      2.1     2.1
    Israel                  :   .331      .295       .626       .5      .6
    Saudi Arabia            :   .331      .284       .580       .5      .5
Africa                      :  1.749     1.013      3.192      2.1     1.8
  North Africa              :  1.253      .609      2.259      1.4     1.1
    Egypt                   :   .824      .376      1.533      1.0      .6
    Algeria                 :   .195      .124       .334       .3      .2
  Sub-Saharan Africa        :   .496      .404       .933       .7      .7
Latin America               :  4.830     5.090      9.973      9.8    10.0
  Mexico                    :  2.336     2.529      5.021      5.5     5.4
  Other Latin America       :  2.494     2.561      4.952      4.3     4.6
    Brazil                  :   .275      .271       .590       .5      .5
    Venezuela               :   .218      .285       .448       .4      .6
Canada                      :  2.881     3.197      5.992      6.2     6.5
Oceania                     :   .226      .248       .476       .4      .5
                            :
     Total                  : 32.071    16.354     59.804     56.5    56.5
                            
Developed countries         : 15.336    15.373     28.466     27.8    27.5
Developing countries        : 14.399    13.547     27.434     24.4    24.9
Other countries             :  2.337     2.320      3.904      4.3     4.1 

1/ Country totals are adjusted for transshipments through Canada.
2/ Newly Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU).

Exports to South Korea are revised upward $200 million to $3.5 billion as
year-to-date exports have been higher than earlier anticipated. Higher exports
of hides and skins and oilseeds have maintained U.S. exports near fiscal 1996
levels. During the last quarter of fiscal 1997, South Korea will convert its
quota on oranges and orange juice to a tariff-rate quota and remove its quotas
on frozen pork and frozen poultry which should further support U.S.
agricultural shipments this year.

The export forecast for Japan is lowered $400 million to $11 billion for fiscal
1997, largely due to reduced prospects for beef sales. Year-to-date
agricultural exports totaled $5.6 billion, 7 percent lower than in 1996. Sales
of beef remain slow; volume is down 18 percent and lower export prices further
reduce beef export value. Pork exports are also below a year ago, but prospects
for U.S. pork shipments should significantly improve after July 1 as Japan is
not expected to renew the annual safeguard surcharge on pork imports. The
United States is likely to gain a large share of the Japanese fresh pork market
that Taiwan will lose because of a foot and mouth disease outbreak. Fruit,
fruit juice, and fresh vegetable exports are also likely to fall below a year
ago; however, U.S. tomatoes should begin to enter Japan in fiscal 1997.

Exports to the Newly Independent States (NIS) are lowered $200 million to $1.7
billion, but the forecast for Russia is unchanged at $1.5 billion. 
Year-to-date poultry meat exports of $491 million continue at a record pace and
account for more than 70 percent of U.S. agricultural exports to Russia. U.S.
exports to the other NIS republics have dropped 31 percent in fiscal 1997,
especially to Estonia, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

U.S. Agricultural Export Programs

Export Subsidy Programs

Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) sales are booming in fiscal 1997. As of
May 28, 4,339 tons of anhydrous milk fat; 178 tons of butter; 2,636 tons of
cheese; 1,745 tons of whole milk powder, and 55,514 tons of nonfat dry milk
were sold to countries in Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Central America, the
Newly Independent States, and the Middle East in fiscal 1997. DEIP bonuses
totaled $52.2 million for the same period, or more than twice the total fiscal
1996 bonuses. There continues to be no sales under the Export Enhancement
Program in fiscal 1997.

CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs

Sales under the fiscal 1997 Export Credit Guarantee Program (GSM-102) are
progressing slowly in fiscal 1996. Country allocations in fiscal 1997 were $3.3
billion as of May 16, 1997, although applications received from exporters were
$1.9 billion, 58 percent of the allocations. In comparison, at this time in
fiscal 1996, GSM-102 allocations were $3.5 billion and applications were $2.3
billion, 66 percent of allocations. Importers in Mexico continue to be the
chief purchasers of U.S. agricultural products under GSM-102, accounting for
more than 45 percent of the applications received from exporters. The fiscal
1997 GSM-102 allocation for Mexico of $800 million was raised to $1.075 billion
on May 14 after applications to exporters reached the previous level. Wheat
importers in Pakistan have used almost all GSM-102 allocations, and exporter
applications for wheat sales to Pakistan totaled $235.7 million.

Market Access Program

On March 6, USDA announced $90 million in allocations under the Market Access
Program (MAP) to 64 U.S. commodity organizations to promote high-value and
processed products such as meats, fruits and vegetables, seafood, and dairy
products. The MAP uses Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) funds to help U.S.
commodity organizations finance cost-share promotional activities for U.S.
agricultural products. Activities financed include consumer promotions, market
research, technical assistance, and trade servicing. Generic promotion
activities predominate with about 72 percent of program expenditures, while
branded product promotions account for 28 percent. Eighty-four percent of the
funds for brand promotion will go to small size companies and cooperatives in
1997. Fiscal 1997 is the last year large companies will be eligible to receive
MAP assistance.

U.S. Food Aid Programs

The U.S. Food for Peace Program, or Public Law 480 (P.L. 480), uses
appropriated funds to provide U.S. agricultural assistance to countries at
different levels of economic development. The P.L. 480 program is comprised of
three titles. Title I is administered by USDA, while Titles II and III are
administered by the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID).

The fiscal 1997 appropriation for Title I and Food for Progress (FFP) programs
funded with Title I funds totaled $240.7 million, marking a 24-percent cut from
1996. Appropriations for Title II increased slightly to $837 million, while
those for Title III were cut nearly in half to $29.5 million. 

As of May 19, Title I agreements were signed with seven countries, with
allocations totaling nearly $80 million. These funds will provide about 360,000
tons of commodity assistance, most of which is wheat. Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, and
Tajikistan are expected to receive commodity donations totaling $30 million
under the FFP program. Title I allocations totaling $125 million have been
announced, but not signed, with 14 countries. When all agreements are signed,
Title I and Title II funded FFP programs are expected to provide about 970,000
tons of commodity assistance to 21 countries.

Approximately a third of Title II appropriations are for Sub-Saharan Africa;
more than 60 percent of which are emergency funds. Rwanda is expected to
receive the largest share of the region's Title II emergency funds, while
Ethiopia will receive the largest share of the region's Title II development
funds. Eritrea, Haiti, Ethiopia, and Mozambique will receive commodity
assistance from Title III allocations.

Import Highlights

U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are projected at $35.5 billion, up
$1.5 billion from the February projection. In general, a stronger U.S. dollar
is putting downward pressure on import prices, while import volume is growing
faster than anticipated. Year-to-date imports were higher than expected for
vegetables, fruit juices, and oilseeds and products.

Horticultural products are expected to reach $12.9 billion, up $400 million
from February. While import prices for fruit juices are lower than a year ago,
the year-to-date import volume is 51 percent higher. The import forecast for
fruit, including fruit juice, is raised $100 million to $4.3 billion. Projected
imports of vegetables and preparations is raised $300 million to $3.9 billion.

Year-to-date grain import volume was up 50 percent because of stronger imports
of oats and wheat. The grain import forecast is raised from 4.1 million tons to
5.4 million tons. Imports of oilseed and products is raised $200 million,
reflecting higher prices. Cumulative value totals for oilseeds and products
were 10 percent higher than a year ago.


          Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by commodity, 1995-97      

                             :    October-March    :  Fiscal  :   Fiscal 1997
      Commodity              :  1995/96 : 1996/97  :   1996   :    Forecast
                             :          :          :          :   Feb. :  May  
                             :
                             :                  --Billion dollars--

Animals and products         :   2.914    3.160       5.907      6.2     6.4
  Live animals               :    .794     .752       1.551      1.6     1.6
  Red meats                  :   1.090    1.204       2.251      2.3     2.4
  Dairy products             :    .571     .663       1.174      1.3     1.3
                             :
Horticultural products       :   5.668    6.496      11.643     12.5    12.9
  Fruits, incl. juices       :   1.779    2.129       3.810      4.2     4.3
    Bananas and plantains    :    .558     .580       1.177      1.3     1.3
  Vegetables and preps.      :   1.771    2.014       3.359      3.6     3.9
  Nuts and preps.            :    .250     .279        .530       .6      .6
  Wine and malt beverages    :   1.217    1.401       2.658      3.1     3.1
  Nursery and cut flowers    :    .492     .503        .946      1.1     1.1
                             :
Grains and feeds             :   1.215    1.485       2.574      2.7     3.1
  Grains                     :    .331     .520        .674       .7     1.0
  Feed and grain products    :    .884     .965       1.900      2.0     2.1
                             :
Sugar and related products   :    .680     .846       1.789      1.9     1.8
Oilseeds and products        :   1.016    1.119       2.083      1.9     2.1
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :    .345     .638        .770       .8     1.1
Coffee, incl. products       :   1.547    1.579       2.860      3.1     3.2
Cocoa, incl. products        :    .723     .726       1.365      1.4     1.4
Rubber and allied gums       :    .743     .710       1.441      1.5     1.5
Other products               :    .929     .958       2.008      2.0     2.0
                             :
   Total                     :  15.779   17.718      32.440     34.0    35.5
                            


  Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports:  Volume by commodity, 1995-97 
      
                             :    October-March    :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal 1997
      Commodity              :  1995/96 : 1996/97  :   1996   :   Forecast
                             :          :          :          :  Feb. :  May
        :
                             :                --Million metric tons--
     :
Red meats                    :   .490      .529       1.024      1.0      1.1
Cheese and casein            :   .117      .133        .243       .2       .3
Horticultural products       :  5.707     5.937      10.826     11.7     12.0
  Fruits and preps.          :  3.251     3.418       6.695      7.0      7.0
    Bananas and plantains    :  1.933     1.909       4.007      4.1      3.9
  Vegetables and preps.      :  2.357     2.411        .903      4.5      4.8
  Nuts and preps.            :   .099      .108        .194       .2       .2
  Wine and malt beverages 1/ :  7.806     8.669      17.795     20.3     20.0
  Fruit juices 1/            : 10.430    15.736      24.370     26.3     29.0
Grains and feeds             :  3.196     4.375       6.349      7.0      8.3
  Grains                     :  1.906     2.976       3.563      4.1     5.4
  Feed and grain products    :  1.290     1.399       2.786      2.9     2.9
Sugar, cane or beet 2/       :   .880     1.290       2.733      2.7     2.7
Oilseeds and products        :  1.746     1.817       3.345      3.6     3.6
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :   .115      .183        .259       .3      .4
Coffee, incl. products       :   .598      .623       1.109      1.1     1.2
Cocoa, incl. products        :   .441      .408        .817       .9      .8
Rubber and allied gums       :   .520      .560        .999      1.0     1.1
                             
1/ Million hectoliters. Not included in horticultural totals. 2/ Imports for
consumption, product weight. Includes imports of quota-exempt sugar.


        Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by region, 1995-97 
 
                            :    October-March    :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal 1997
        Region              :  1995/96 : 1996/97  :   1996   :   Forecast
                            :          :          :          :  Feb. :  May 
                            :
                            :                 --Billion dollars--
                            :
Western Europe              :   3.180     3.606      6.449     6.7     7.2
  European Union 1/         :   3.088     3.524      6.273     6.5     7.1
  Other Western Europe      :    .092      .082       .175      .2      .2
Central and Eastern Europe  :    .136      .171       .223      .2      .3
Newly Independent States 2/ :    .023      .044       .180      .1      .1
Asia                        :   2.616     2.843      5.372     5.7     5.7
  Japan                     :    .151      .145       .284      .3      .3
  China                     :    .251      .330       .545      .6      .7
  Other East Asia           :    .153      .178       .334      .4      .4
  Southeast Asia            :   1.791     1.899      3.589     3.8     3.8
  South Asia                :    .270      .291       .620      .6      .6
Middle East                 :    .258      .445       .420      .4      .9
Africa                      :    .432      .435       .850      .9      .9
  North Africa              :    .033      .035       .074      .1      .1
  Sub-Saharan Africa        :    .400      .365       .776      .8      .8
Latin America               :   5.298     5.824     10.839    11.7    11.7
  Mexico                    :   1.945     2.126      3.716     3.9     4.3
  Other Latin America       :   3.353     3.698      7.123     7.8     7.4
    Brazil                  :    .550      .681      1.248     1.4     1.4
    Chile                   :    .375      .480       .696      .7     1.0
Canada                      :   3.094     3.584      6.463     6.6     7.2
Oceania                     :    .741      .766      1.635     1.7     1.5
                            :
    Total                   :  15.779    17.718     32.440    34.0    35.5
                            :
Developed countries         :   7.215     8.187     14.830    15.3    16.4
Developing countries        :   8.169     9.075     16.652    17.8    18.2
Other countries             :    .395      .456       .948      .9      .9 

  1/ Austria, Finland, and Sweden are included in the European Union.
  2/ Newly Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU).


The import volume for red meat is expected to reach 1.1 million tons, raising
the import value to $2.4 billion. Although year-to-date live animal imports are
below a year ago, they are expected to pick-up in the latter half of the year
due to lower U.S. cattle inventory. Projected live animal imports are unchanged
from the February projection at $1.6 billion. Total imports of animals and
products is forecast at $6.4 billion.

Cumulative tobacco import volume is 60 percent higher than the previous year
because of lower than expected tobacco production and strong demand for
cigarette manufacturing. Because of higher than expected volume and prices,
tobacco imports are expected to reach $1.1 billion, an increase from February's
$800 million forecast.

Coffee imports were revised upward to $3.2 billion, reflecting continued strong
prices through fiscal 1997.

END_OF_FILE