OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS                         December 15, 1997
December 1997, AES-16
               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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FISCAL 1998 AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST UNCHANGED AT $58.5 BILLION 

Fiscal 1998 U.S. agricultural exports are projected at $58.5 billion, up $1.2
billion from the $57.3 billion shipped in fiscal year 1997. In the aggregate,
the export forecast remains unchanged from August as gains in soybeans offset
reductions in meats, wheat, and corn. This forecast includes an anticipated
slowdown in U.S. exports to Southeast Asian countries and South Korea. Exports
to these countries, currently forecast at $6.2 billion, reflect an estimated
$500 million downward adjustment due to the financial crisis.

Fiscal 1998 imports remain at $38 billion, $2.2 billion above fiscal 1997. 

The anticipated export surplus of $20.5 billion is unchanged from August
projections, but $1.0 billion less than the fiscal 1997 surplus.


            Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1998
                        -- Year ending September 30 --                     
                  Fiscal    Fiscal    Fiscal    Fiscal     Forecast
Item                   1994      1995      1996      1997      Fiscal 1998
                                                            Aug.    Dec. 
                            -- Billion dollars --
Exports             43.9      54.6      59.8      57.3      58.5    58.5
                            
Imports             26.6      29.9      32.6      35.8      38.0    38.0
Trade balance       17.3      24.7      27.2      21.5      20.5    20.5
                            -- Million metric tons --
Export volume      127.5     169.7     158.4     147.3     161.4   157.9

This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the November 10, 1997, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.


Contents

Fiscal 1998 Agricultural Exports
Commodity Highlights
Economic Outlook
Regional Highlights
U.S. Agricultural Export Programs
Import Highlights

Tables

Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 1993-98
Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1996-98
Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1996-98
Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by region, 1996-97
Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by commodity, 1996-98
Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports:  Volume by commodity, 1996-98
Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by region, 1996-97

Coordinator (ERS):

Carolyn Whitton (202) 694-5287
Leader Trade Data Analysis
Trade Analysis Branch
Market & Trade Economics Economic Research Service(ERS)

Coordinators (FAS):

Ernest Carter (202) 720-2922
Office of Deputy Administrator
Commodity and Marketing Programs
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)

U.S. Department of Agriculture
Washington, D.C. 20250

The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports are based on
information provided by the Market & Trade Economics Division of the ERS and
the Commodity Divisions of FAS. Editorial support is furnished by Martha R.
Evans, Information Services Division, ERS. All telephones are area code 202.

ERS:  Karen Ackerman (Export Programs, 694-5264); Ed Allen (Wheat and Coarse
Grains, 694-5288); Mark Ash (Oilseeds, 694-5289); Nathan Childs (Rice,
694-5292); Mark Gehlhar (Imports, 694-5273); Shayle Shagam (Beef, 694-5186);
Mildred Haley (Pork, 694-5176); David Harvey (Poultry, 694-5177); Gary Lucier
(Horticultural Products, 694-5253); Stephen MacDonald (Cotton, 694-5305);
Stacey Rosen (Food Aid, 694-5164).

FAS:  Peter Burr (Cotton, Tobacco & Seeds 720-9497); Alan Holz (Oilseeds,
720-0143); Linda Kotschwar (Grains and Feeds, 690-4134); Dee Linse (Export
Programs, 720-9847); Joel Greene (Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry, 720-6553);
Debra Pumphrey (Horticultural and Tropical Products, 720-8899).

Regional information ERS:  Chris Bolling (Brazil, 694-5212); Todd Morath (East
Europe, 694-5161); Hunter Colby (China, 694-5215); Frederick Crook (Hong Kong,
694-5217); John Dyck (Japan & South Korea, 694-5221); Anwarul Hoque (South
Asia, 694-5222); Sophia Wu Huang (Taiwan, 694-5225); Elizabeth Jones (European
Union, 694-5149); Michael Kurtzig (North Africa and the Middle East, 694-5152);
Sharon Sheffield (New Independent States, 694-5167); John Link (Mexico,
694-5228); Suchada Langley (Canada, 694-5227); Gary Vocke (Southeast Asia,
694-5241).

The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports is published in February, May,
August, and December. The next issue will be released February 23, 1998. The
summary may be accessed electronically; call (202) 694-5050.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. (Not all
prohibited bases apply to all programs.)  Persons with disabilities who require
alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large
print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600
(voice & TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call 1-800-245-6340
(voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity employer.

Commodity Highlights

The forecast for fiscal year 1998 exports of U.S. wheat and flour is lowered
1.5 million tons from the previous August forecast to 29 million tons. With
higher prices for wheat partially offsetting reduced wheat export volume, the
value of wheat and flour exports was reduced only $100 million to $4.5 billion.
Lower domestic ending stocks have resulted in higher wheat prices since August.
U.S. wheat export volume is reduced due to greater than expected competition
from Australia and Canada. The timely arrival of rains in Australia has
resulted in an upward revision of that country's production and export
estimates.

The fiscal 1998 forecast for coarse grain exports is reduced 3.1 million tons
and $600 million from August's forecast to 55.1 million tons valued at $6.9
billion. Although there were slight declines in corn and sorghum prices, most
of the revision is due to reductions in corn export volume. The forecast for
corn exports is reduced 3.5 million tons and $700 million to 48.5 million tons
valued at $6.1 billion. U.S. corn export volume is reduced due to lower demand
in Asia and increased competition from China's large corn exports (up 3 million
tons since August) and feed wheat from Europe. Partially offsetting reduced
corn shipments, barley export volume is raised 450,000 tons to 1.35 million
tons.

The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. oilseed exports is raised 900,000 tons and
$1.1 billion from August's forecast to 37.1 million tons valued at $11 billion.
This improved outlook is due to stronger prices and increased export volumes
for soybeans and products. The outlook for minor oilseed crops has improved as
well. The soybean export forecast is increased 700,000 tons and $600 million to
26.7 million tons valued at $6.7 billion, while the shipment estimates for
soybean meal and oil were each raised 100,000 tons. These upward revisions are
due to rising foreign demand, especially from the European Union (EU) and
China.

The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy
products is lowered $300 million from the August forecast to $12.2 billion.
Beef, pork, and variety meats are now estimated at 1.5 million tons valued at
$4.3 billion, down 100,000 tons and $500 million from August's forecast. This
revision is due to lower U.S. prices for pork and a reduction in the forecast
for U.S. pork shipments to Japan. Following the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak
in Taiwan, exports to Japan have not expanded as much as anticipated. Compared
with fiscal year 1997, U.S. beef exports are expected to rise 3 percent in
fiscal 1998, and higher prices should boost export value 9 percent to $2.6
billion. This represents a slowdown in the growth rate of U.S. beef sales to
Asia, and especially to Japan. Partly offsetting downward revisions for beef
and pork, U.S. poultry and product exports are increased $200 million to $3.2
billion largely due to expected expanded sales of processed products to all
destinations and table eggs to Hong Kong.

Minor adjustments between product groups leave the overall fiscal 1998 forecast
for U.S. horticultural exports unchanged from the August estimate of $11.2
billion. This represents a $600-million (6 percent) increase from fiscal 1997
sales and a record high. Fruits and preparations, vegetables and preparations,
and tree nuts, three major product groups that account for about two-thirds of
the sales expansion in 1998, are forecast at $3.5 billion, $2.8 billion, and
$1.4 billion, respectively. Other products, most notably essential oils, wine,
and miscellaneous food preparations, account for the remaining growth. The
expected rise in horticultural exports (both volume and value) assumes that
sales to Mexico continue rising, sales to Canada continue at the current pace,
steady sales growth across Latin America continues, and funding for USDA market
promotion activities remains unchanged.



Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1995-1998

                            Fiscal Fiscal   Fiscal   Fiscal 1998
   Commodity           1995 1996   1997     Forecast
                                                      Aug      Dec

                            --Billion dollars--

Grains and feeds 1/         17.637   21.553   16.466  17.3    16.7
  Wheat & flour              5.201    7.032    4.263   4.6     4.5
  Rice                       1.050    1.004    0.962   1.0     1.0
  Coarse grains 2/           7.411    9.338    6.921   7.5     6.9
    Corn                     6.619    8.369    6.107   6.8     6.1
  Feeds and fodders          2.511    2.627    2.673   2.5     2.6

Oilseeds and products        9.119    9.670   11.437   9.9    11.0
  Soybeans                   5.274    6.312    6.950   6.1     6.7
  Soybean meal               1.079    1.305    1.746   1.4     1.4
  Soybean oil                0.809    0.272    0.516   0.6     0.7

Livestock products           7.831    8.067    7.726   8.7     8.2
  Beef, pork & variety
   meats                     4.038    4.343    3.977   4.8     4.3
  Hides & skins,
  incl. furs                 1.738    1.677    1.693   1.8     1.8

Poultry & products           2.340    2.898    3.094   3.0     3.2
Dairy products               0.789    0.719    0.842   0.8     0.8
Tobacco, unmanufactured      1.329    1.393    1.612   1.6     1.6
Cotton & linters             3.496    3.028    2.737   2.8     2.7
Seeds                        0.680    0.727    0.924   0.9     0.9
Horticultural products       9.649   10.019   10.598  11.2    11.2
  Fruits & preparations      3.255    3.311    3.412   3.5     3.5 
  Vegetables &
   preparations              2.559    2.423    2.655   2.7     2.8
  Tree nuts & preparations   1.108    1.374    1.283   1.4     1.4
Sugar, tropical, and other   1.759    1.721    1.825   2.3     2.2

    Total 3/                54.629  59.795    57.261  58.5    58.5

  1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats,and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.



   Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1995-98

                       Fiscal      Fiscal   Fiscal   Fiscal 1998
   Commodity           1995 1996   1997     Forecast
                                                      Aug     Dec
                            --Million metric tons--

Wheat                   32.094   33.716   24.531     30.0     28.5
Wheat flour              1.184    0.470    0.504      0.5      0.5
Rice                     3.767    2.831    2.564      2.7      2.7
Coarse grains 1/        65.670   58.656   53.027     58.2     55.1
   Corn                 58.645   52.681   46.579     52.0     48.5
Feeds & fodders         13.483   12.065   12.259     12.4     12.7
Oilseeds and products   34.050   30.759   33.942     36.2     37.1
  Soybeans              23.584   22.372   24.027     26.0     26.7
  Soybean meal           6.094    5.445    6.345      6.6      6.7
  Soybean oil            1.216    0.450    0.924      1.0      1.1
Beef, pork, & variety
 meats                   1.256    1.410    1.356      1.6      1.5
Poultry meat             1.901    2.330    2.522      2.6      2.6
Animal fats              1.725    1.376    1.028      0.9      0.9
Cotton & linters         2.068    1.703    1.648      1.6      1.6
Horticultural products   7.041    7.139    7.539      7.7      7.7
Other                    5.442    5.916    0.000      7.0      7.0
    Total agriculture  169.681  158.372  147.319    161.4    157.9
     Major bulk
      products 2/      127.183  119.278  105.797    118.5    114.6

 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice,
coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.


Economic Outlook

Growth of world gross domestic product(GDP) is now projected at 2.8 percent in
1998, down from 3.1 percent in 1997. Developed country GDP growth is expected
to slow to 2.4 percent from 2.7 percent in 1997, while developing countries
slide to 4.5 percent GDP growth from 5.2 percent. The U.S. GDP is forecast to
drop to 2.5 percent growth from 3.8 percent in 1997.

In major U.S. export markets, the European Union's GDP growth is projected to
rise to 2.7 percent from 2.4 percent in 1997. GDP growth in Japan also is
expected to rise, but at only a sluggish 1.6 percent in 1998. Growth of GDP in
Canada and Mexico likely will slow to 2.8 percent and 5 percent, respectively,
from 3.6 percent and 7 percent, respectively in 1997.

Improved GDP growth also is expected in the transition economies of Eastern
Europe and the New Independent States. The Middle East is expected to remain
unchanged at 3.5 percent GDP growth. But these gains are not likely to offset
the slowdowns projected for Asia.

Since July, financial crises in Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia,
and South Korea have led to devaluation of a number of Asian currencies
relative to the U.S. dollar. While currency devaluations may eventually promote
exports from these countries, slower income growth and higher import prices
will weaken these countries' demand for U.S. exports. Agricultural products,
particularly bulk agricultural products, may be less affected by this weakening
of demand for U.S. exports than industrial and luxury goods; but some effect is
likely.

The Asian crisis is pulling down projections for GDP growth in the region.
Slower 1998 GDP growth is projected for Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan,
and South Korea, although all are likely to continue expanding. Thailand's
growth is forecast very slow at only 1 percent in 1998, and South Korea's
growth is expected to slow to 2.7 percent, from 4.9 percent in 1997. The
others, while slowing, still are all forecast above 4.5 percent growth.

In the rest of Asia, China's growth also is projected to slow, although for
different reasons; but it is likely to remain high at 7.6 percent in 1998. GDP
growth in Latin America will slump to 3.5 percent, from 4.5 percent this year.
GDP growth in Africa also is projected down to only 3.1 percent.

Regional Highlights

The current crisis has been centered in Southeast Asia and, more recently, in
South Korea. Although Asia accounted for 46 percent of total U.S. agricultural
exports in 1997 and as much as three-fourths of U.S. exports of some
commodities, South Korea and Southeast Asia represent a far smaller portion of
U.S. agricultural exports. Southeast Asia accounted for only 5 percent of U.S.
agricultural exports in 1997, while South Korea accounted for 6 percent.
Exports to these countries, currently forecast at $6.2 billion, relfect an
estimated modest $500 million downward adjustment due to the financial crisis.

The crisis is expected to adversely impact high-value product (HVP) exports
such as soybean products and meats, as well as some bulk products such as corn
and soybeans. However, USDA is projecting these countries' 1998 imports of food
grains up because of drought-induced production shortfalls and pressure to keep
consumer prices low. In addition, imports of some products tied to export
industries such as cotton and hides and skins, may also increase.

Other major markets, such as Canada, Mexico, Japan, and the EU, are expected to
remain strong for 1998 U.S. agricultural exports, but substantial gains are
projected only for Mexico. Exports to Mexico are projected up 14 percent to
$5.8 billion. In Mexico, animal  products, fruits, and feeds are likely to show
the strongest gains.


        Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1995-98

                              Fiscal         Fiscal   Fiscal    Fiscal 1998
Region                          1995     1996     1997       Forecast

                                    --Billion dollars--

Western Europe              8.7       9.3       9.4           9.5
  European Union            8.3       8.9       8.8           8.8
  Other Western Europe      0.4       0.4       0.6           0.7
Central and Eastern Europe  0.3       0.4       0.3           0.4
New Independent States 1/   1.2       1.7       1.6           1.4
  Russia                    0.9       1.2       1.3           1.2
Asia (excluding Middle
 East)                     24.3      26.0      23.8          23.6
  Japan                    10.7      11.9      10.7          10.9
  China                     2.4       1.8       1.8           1.6
  Hong Kong                 1.4       1.5       1.6           1.7
  Taiwan                    2.6       2.9       2.6           2.4
  South Korea               3.6       3.7       3.3           3.3
  Southeast Asia            2.6       3.4       3.1           2.9
    Philippines             0.7       0.9       0.9           0.9
  South Asia                1.0       0.7       0.7           0.8
    Pakistan                0.4       0.4       0.4           0.5
Middle East                 2.4       2.5       2.5           2.5
    Israel                  0.5       0.6       0.5           0.5
    Saudi Arabia            0.5       0.6       0.6           0.6
Africa                      2.8       3.0       2.2           2.5
  North Africa              2.0       2.1       1.5           1.7
    Egypt                   1.3       1.4       0.9           1.1
    Algeria                 0.4       0.3       0.3           0.3
  Sub-Saharan Africa        0.8       0.9       0.8           0.8
Latin America               8.2       9.9      10.0          11.1
  Mexico                    3.7       5.0       5.1           5.8
  Other Latin America       4.5       4.9       4.9           5.3
    Brazil                  0.7       0.6       0.5           0.6
    Venezuela               0.5       0.4       0.5           0.6
Canada                      5.9       6.0       6.6           6.6
Oceania                     0.6       0.5       0.5           0.6
     Total 2/              54.6      59.8      57.3          58.5

 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU), including
the Baltic Republics. 2/ Totals include transshipments through Canada, but
transshipments are not distributed by country as previously.


Exports to Canada and Japan are forecast up only 1-2 percent to $6.7 billion
and $10.9 billion, respectively. Fruits and vegetables are expected to lead 
the gains in Canada as competitors' exports fall and
apple shipment restrictions are eased. Japan's imports of U.S. pork  still
should grow strongly with Taiwan remaining out of the market, while the value
of beef exports to Japan will be boosted by higher beef prices. But the weak
yen is likely to be a key factor in keeping gains to Japan small.

U.S. exports to the EU are forecast about unchanged at $8.8 billion in 1998.
The second consecutive large, but low-quality, wheat harvest has increased the
demand for high-quality wheat. Large grain crops in Spain likely will limit
feed grain imports. Although pork exports appear likely to increase, beef and
poultry meat imports continue to be regulated.

Prospects for gains in exports to South Asia, primarily Pakistan, are being
pushed up by large GSM wheat sales already committed to that country. Exports
to Pakistan are projected up nearly 30 percent from 1997, bringing expected
exports to South Asia as a whole up 10 percent.

Exports to China are expected to drop about 10 percent in 1998, reflecting the
success of its policy to increase domestically produced grain. However, the
resulting lower oilseed production and continued growth in meal and oil use is
forecast to boost U.S. soybean and product exports.

Improved economic growth in Eastern Europe is likely to raise exports to that
region. But despite greater economic growth expected in 1998, exports to the
New Independent States, primarily Russia, are projected to decline in 1998,
reflecting increased enforcement of border measures and a more stable currency
that will make domestic products more competitive.

Expected flat economic growth in the Middle East will hold anticipated exports
to this region unchanged as well in 1998. But a sharp gain in exports to North
Africa is projected as countries other than Egypt raise imports to compensate
for reduced 1997/98 production and sales to Egypt recover following a decline
in 1997. Additionally, expansion of the poultry and livestock sectors in these
two regions is expected to promote sales of feed ingredients.

U.S. Agricultural Export Programs

Export Subsidy Programs
Congress authorized only $150 million for the Export Enhancement Program (EEP)
in fiscal 1998, $350 million less than the level authorized by the FAIR Act,
but authorized full funding for the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP). For
the first year since its inception in 1985, there were no sales under the EEP
in fiscal 1997. As of December 1, there have been no EEP sales in fiscal 1998.
DEIP bonuses in fiscal 1997 of $121 million facilitated sales of 140,324 metric
tons of anhydrous milk fat, butter, butter oil, cheddar cheese, mozzarella
cheese, nonfat dry milk, processed American cheese, and whole milk powder. The
DEIP is off to a strong start in fiscal 1998 as of December 1, as bonuses
valued at $33.5 million assisted 38,484 metric tons of dairy product sales,
chiefly to African and Middle Eastern countries.

CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs
For fiscal 1998, Congress appropriated funding of $5.5 billion for export
credit guarantee programs -- GSM-102, GSM-103, the Supplier Credit Guarantee
program, and the Facilities Guarantee Program. For fiscal 1998, GSM-102, the
largest credit guarantee program, is off to a strong start as allocations
totaled $2.4 billion as of November 21 compared with $1.9 billion for the same
period last year. GSM-102's commodity coverage has expanded to many high-value
and consumer-ready products, although early approvals of sale applications(as
of November 21)are primarily cotton, wheat, feed grains, and oilseeds to major
buyers such as Mexico, Pakistan, Thailand, and Turkey. Total fiscal 1997 export
applications approved under GSM-102, $2.8 billion, were down 10 percent from
fiscal 1996 approvals.

Supplier Credit Guarantee Program allocations cover a wide variety of
consumer-ready and high-value products from pet food to fish, meats, fruits,
vegetables, and dairy products. Allocations totaling $153 million have been
extended to buyers in Andean countries, Argentina, Baltic countries, Brazil,
Central American countries, Central European countries, Israel, Jamaica,
Kazakhstan, Mexico, Poland, Southeast Asian countries, and Turkey. The Supplier
Credit Guarantee Program differs from GSM-102 guarantees in that the guarantees
are extended for only up to 180 days versus up to 3 years for GSM-102. Foreign
banks and foreign bank letters of credit are not involved in the transaction,
but the buyer alone bears the responsibility of repayment.

U.S. Food Aid Programs
The fiscal 1998 appropriation for Title I and Food for Progress (FFP) programs
funded with Title I funds totaled $244.5 million, a slight increase of $3.8
million from the 1997 level. Appropriations for Title II remained at $837
million, and those for Title III totaled $30 million, a $500,000-increase from
1997.

For fiscal 1998, Title I programs are planned with 16 countries, with
allocations totaling about $165 million. These funds are estimated to provide
about 755,000 tons of commodity assistance. Under the Title I-funded FFP
program, programs are planned with 5 countries, with allocations totaling about
$69 million, providing an estimated 224,000 tons of commodity assistance. Title
I and FFP programs are estimated to provide roughly 1 million tons of commodity
assistance to 21 countries.

Import Highlights

U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal year 1998 are projected at $38 billion, up
6 percent from fiscal 1997 and unchanged from the August forecast. Lower
anticipated prices for coffee and fruit and vegetables have slowed the growth
in imports from the previous year.

Animals and products are expected to grow by 7 percent in 1998 to reach $6.9
billion. Red meat imports, mainly from Australia and New Zealand, are expected
to reach $2.8 billion, an increase of 8 percent from 1997. Argentina will most
likely fill its 20,000-ton beef quota for 1998.

Horticultural imports for fiscal 1998 are expected to reach $14.4 billion, up
13 percent over fiscal 1997. Imports of vegetables and preparations were
revised downward from the August projection by $200 million as import prices
are expected lower than earlier anticipated. Total vegetable imports for 1998
are projected at $4.1 billion, up from $3.6 billion in 1997. The forecast for
wine and malt beverages was revised upward by $200 million to $3.5 billion in
1998.

Sugar imports for fiscal 1998 are projected to fall from 2.9 million tons in
1997 to 2.5 million tons in 1998.


     Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1995-1998
        
                         Fiscal    Fiscal   Fiscal  Fiscal 1998
     Commodity           1995      1996     1997    Forecast  
                                                          Aug    Dec

                                   --Billion dollars--

Animals and products           5.962    5.955   6.426     6.9    6.9
  Live animals                 1.655    1.551   1.525     1.6    1.6
  Red meats                    2.332    2.251   2.583     2.8    2.8
  Dairy products               1.072    1.209   1.273     1.4    1.4

Horticultural products        10.346   11.692  12.673    14.4   14.4
  Fruits, incl. juices         3.354    3.810   4.138     4.7    4.7
  Bananas and plantains        1.130    1.177   1.218     1.3    1.3
  Vegetable and preps.         3.114    3.421   3.604     4.3    4.1
  Nuts and preps.              0.496    0.530   0.547     0.6    0.6
  Wine and malt bev.           2.207    2.658   3.068     3.3    3.5
  Nursery products             0.823    0.946   0.974     1.2    1.2

Grains and feeds               2.244    2.517   2.941     3.0    3.0
  Grains                       0.654    0.674   0.979     0.9    0.9
  Feed and grain prod.         1.590    1.843   1.962     2.1    2.1

Sugar and related prod.        1.299    1.808   1.869     1.7    1.7
Oilseeds and prod.             1.745    2.059   2.248     2.3    2.1
Tobacco, unmanufactured        0.572    0.770   1.179     1.4    1.4
Coffee, incl. prod             3.363    2.860   3.698     3.4    3.4
Cocoa, incl. prod.             1.063    1.333   1.414     1.4    1.5
Rubber and allied gums         1.588    1.441   1.315     1.4    1.5
Other products                 1.670    2.130   2.025     2.1    2.1

Total                         29.852   32.565  35.788    38.0   38.0



     Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports:  Volume by commodity, 1995-98

                         Fiscal    Fiscal   Fiscal  Fiscal 1998
     Commodity           1995      1996     1997    Forecast
                                                          Aug      Dec
  
                                   --Million metric tons--

Red meats                      1.054    1.024    1.140      1.2     1.2
Cheese and casein              0.244    0.243    0.254      0.3     0.3
Horticultural products         9.749   10.826   11.242     12.8    12.8
  Fruits and preps             6.350    6.695    6.918      7.6     7.6
    Bananas and plantains      3.878    4.007    3.950      4.1     4.1
  Vegetables and preps.        3.150    3.903    4.122      5.0     5.0
  Nuts and preps.              0.189    0.194    0.203      0.2     0.2
  Wine and malt beverages 1/  15.523   17.795   20.426     20.6    21.0
  Fruit juices 1/             24.192   24.370   29.829     31.8    31.8
Grains and feeds               7.415    6.349    8.434      8.7     8.7
  Grains                       4.891    3.563    5.643      5.6     5.6
  Feed and grain products      2.524    2.786    2.791      2.9     2.9
Sugar, cane or beet 2/         1.541    2.733    2.938       NA     2.5
Oilseeds and products          3.107    3.345    3.780      3.5     3.4
Tobacco, unmanufactured        0.216    0.259    0.337      0.4     0.4
Coffee, incl. products         0.935    1.109    1.212      1.3     1.3
Cocoa, incl. products          0.614    0.817    0.767      0.8     0.8
Rubber and allied gums         1.043    0.999    1.075      1.1     1.1

1/ Million hectoliters not included in horticultural totals. 2/ NA= Not
available; 1998 sugar forecast not available in August because tariff-rate
quota had not been announced.


     Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1995-98

                              Fiscal         Fiscal   Fiscal   Fiscal 1998
Region                          1995     1996     1997    Forecast

                                    --Billion dollars--

Western Europe                5.994     6.517     7.120     7.6
  European Union              5.819     6.339     6.937     7.4
  Other Western Europe        0.172     0.178     0.184     0.2
Central and Eastern Europe    0.202     0.223     0.252     0.3
New Independent States 1/     0.053     0.180     0.070     0.1
Asia                          5.447     5.815     6.408     6.8
  Japan                       0.320     0.292     0.290     0.3
  China                       0.517     0.546     0.645     0.7
  Other East Asia             0.305     0.334     0.350     0.4
  Southeast Asia              3.495     3.590     3.795     4.0
  South Asia                  0.517     0.631     0.687     0.7
Middle East                   0.320     0.422     0.640     0.7
Africa                        0.708     0.851     0.871     0.9
  North Africa                0.076     0.075     0.071     0.1
  Sub-Saharan Africa          0.629     0.777     0.800     0.8
Latin America                10.269    10.859    11.951    12.7
  Mexico                      3.716     3.729     3.940     4.2
  Other Latin America         6.481     7.129     8.010     8.5
    Brazil                    1.323     1.125     1.517     1.6
    Chile                     0.537     0.697     0.755     0.8
Canada                        5.428     6.485     7.292     7.7
Oceania                       1.751     1.635     1.824     1.9
    Total                    29.852    32.565    35.788    38.0
 
 1/ Newly Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU), 
including the Baltic Republics.

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