SUMMARY:
OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS                       August 28, 1997
August 1997, AES-15
              Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR
U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS will be available within 1-2 weeks following release
of this summary.
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Fiscal 1998 Agricultural Exports Forecast at $58.5 Billion, 
Second Highest on Record

The initial fiscal 1998 projection of U.S. agricultural exports
is $58.5 billion, up $2 billion from the fiscal 1997 forecast and
second only to the fiscal 1996 record.  The projected increase in
value is about equally divided between bulk and high value
product exports.  Expanding exports of grains, meat, and
horticultural products account for much of the prospective gain. 
The only major category expected to show a year-to-year drop in
export value is oilseeds and products.  Record soybean crops in
the United States and Brazil are expected to lead to sharply
lower prices.  The fiscal 1997 forecast of $56.5 billion is
unchanged from May.

Export volume is projected to reach 161.4 million tons in fiscal
1998, second only to the fiscal 1995 record.  Major bulk
commodities are projected to rise to 118.5 million tons from the
103.5 million estimated for 1997, as grain and oilseed exports
increase.

U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1998 are projected at $38
billion, up 6 percent from the revised 1997 figure of $36
billion.  The import growth rate, however, is expected to slow as
coffee imports stabilize.

The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is projected at $20.5 billion
in fiscal 1998, unchanged from the revised fiscal 1997 forecast.


         Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1993-1998
                         -- Year ending September 30 --
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         : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal :     Forecast     :  Fiscal 
Item     :  1993  :  1994  :  1995  :  1996  :   Fiscal  1997   :   1998
         :        :        :        :        :   May   :   Aug. : Projected
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         :                      -- Billion dollars --
         :
Exports  :   42.7     43.9    54.6      59.8     56.5     56.5      58.5
         :
Imports  :   24.6     26.6    29.9      32.6     35.5     36.0      38.0
         :                                                                  
Trade    :
 balance :   18.1     17.3    24.7      27.2     21.0     20.5      20.5
         :                                                                  
         :                     -- Million metric tons --
Export   :
 volume  :  146.4    127.5   169.7     158.4    143.5    144.3     161.4
         :                                                                  
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This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the August 12, 1997, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

 
Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1996-1998
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                          :   October-June    : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 :  Fiscal
   Commodity              : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :  1996  :   Forecast  :   1998
                          :         :         :        :  May : Aug. :Projected 
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                          :              --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/       :  16.314   12.521   21.553    16.0   16.1    17.3
  Wheat & flour           :   4.923    2.835    7.032     3.8    4.0     4.6
  Rice                    :    .773     .803    1.004     1.0    1.0     1.0
  Coarse grains 2/        :   7.430    5.600    9.338     6.9    6.9     7.5
    Corn                  :   6.709    4.980    8.369     6.1    6.1     6.8
  Feeds and fodders       :   2.032    2.037    2.627     2.6    2.6     2.5
                          :
Oilseeds and products     :   7.757    9.551    9.670    10.8   10.8     9.9
  Soybeans                :   5.159    6.112    6.312     7.0    6.9     6.1
  Soybean meal            :    .935    1.505    1.305     1.6    1.7     1.4
  Soybean oil             :    .241     .384     .272      .5     .5      .6
                          :
Livestock products        :   6.291    5.693    8.067     8.3    7.9     8.7
  Beef, pork & variety    :
   meats                  :   3.434    2.884    4.343     4.6    4.2     4.8
  Hides & skins, incl.    :
   furs                   :   1.260    1.300    1.677     1.7    1.7     1.8
Poultry & products        :   1.996    2.165    2.730     2.9    3.0     3.0
Dairy products            :    .563     .584     .719      .7     .8      .8
Tobacco, unmanufactured   :   1.173    1.391    1.393     1.4    1.6     1.6
Cotton & linters          :   2.788    2.268    3.028     2.8    2.7     2.8
Seeds                     :    .586     .754     .727      .9     .9      .9
Horticultural products    :   7.499    7.939   10.019    10.6   10.6    11.2
  Fruits & preparations   :   2.448    2.493    3.311     3.3    3.4     3.5
  Vegetables & prepara-   :
    tions                 :   1.869    2.025    2.423     2.6    2.6     2.7
  Tree nuts & preps       :   1.008     .956    1.374     1.4    1.3     1.4
Sugar, tropical, and      :
    other                 :   1.390    1.507    1.889     2.1    2.1     2.3
                          :
   Total 3/               :  46.357   44.373   59.795    56.5   56.5    58.5
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Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1996-1998
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                          :   October-June    : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 : Fiscal
      Commodity           : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :  1996  :   Forecast  :  1998
                          :         :         :        :  May : Aug. :Projected
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                          :             --Million metric tons--
Wheat                     :  23.405   15.547   33.716    21.5   23.5    30.0
Wheat flour               :    .340     .355     .470      .6     .5      .5
Rice                      :   2.227    2.087    2.831     2.5    2.5     2.7
Coarse grains 2/          :  48.125   41.635   58.656    52.8   52.2    58.2
   Corn                   :  43.591   36.885   52.681    46.5   46.0    52.0
Feeds & fodders           :   9.574    9.371   12.065    12.2   12.2    12.4
Oilseeds and products     :  25.066   29.321   30.759    33.3   33.0    36.2
  Soybeans                :  18.557   21.215   22.372    24.1   23.7    26.0
  Soybean meal            :   4.043    5.450    5.445     6.1    6.1     6.6
  Soybean oil             :    .399     .693     .450      .8     .8     1.0
Beef, pork & variety meats:   1.097     .982    1.410     1.5    1.4     1.6
Poultry meat              :   1.720    1.851    2.330     2.5    2.5     2.6
Animal fats               :   1.148     .768    1.376     1.0     .9      .9
Cotton & linters          :   1.562    1.356    1.703     1.6    1.6     1.6
Horticultural products 4/ :   5.446    5.709    7.139     7.5    7.5     7.7
Other                     :   4.538    4.878    5.916     6.5    6.5     7.0
   Total agriculture        124.248  113.860  158.371   143.5  144.3   161.4
   Major bulk products 5/ :  93.876   81.840  119.278   102.5  103.5   118.5
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1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats,
and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Production measured in
liters not included. 5/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans,
and cotton.

For more information, contact Carolyn Whitton (202) 219-0825. 

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