United States Department of Agriculture

Office of the Chief Economist
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Long-term Projections Report OCE-2011-1
February 2011 

# USDA Agricultural Projections to 2020

Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair Economic Research Service Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service Agricultural Marketing Service Office of the Chief Economist Office of Budget and Program Analysis Risk Management Agency Natural Resources Conservation Service National Institute of Food and Agriculture



## USDA Long-term Projections 0 25 50 75 100

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 

### Strong global agricultural demand projected to keep U.S. net farm income historically high

Billion dollars

U.S. net farm income

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USDA Long-term Projections 

### February 2011

i 

### USDA Agricultural Projections to 2020. Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Outlook Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Prepared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee. Long-term Projections Report OCE-2011-1, 100 pp.
Abstract
This report provides projections for the agricultural sector through 2020. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The projections are based on specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, with no domestic or external shocks to global agricultural markets. Provisions of current law are assumed to remain in effect through the projection period. The projections are one representative scenario for the agricultural sector for the next decade. The projections in this report were preparedduring October through December 2010, reflecting a composite of model results and judgmentbased analyses.
Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect market adjustments to the supplyand-demand conditions underlying recent price increases for many farm commodities. In response, global agricultural production increases in 2011, particularly for grains. Production adjustments are made in the livestock sector during the first several years of the projections in response to high grain and soybean meal prices in 2011. 

### Longrun developments for global agriculture reflect a resumption of steady world economic growth following the global recession and continued demand for biofuels, which combine to support increases in consumption, trade, and prices. Thus, after near-term declines from 2011 record levels, the value of U.S. agricultural exports and net farm income each rise through the rest of the decade. U.S. retail food prices increase faster than the overall rate of inflation rate in 2011 and 2012, reflecting higher food commodity prices and energy costs. Food prices rise less than the general inflation rate over the remainder of the projections, largely reflecting production increases in the livestock sector which limit meat price increases. Keywords : Projections, crops, livestock, biofuel, ethanol, trade, farm income, food prices, U.S. Department of Agriculture, USDA

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and, where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orient ation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD).
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### ii USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Contents Page 

### A Note to Users of USDA Long-term Projections ........................................................................ iii Long-term Projections on the Internet ......................................................................................... .. iv Contacts for Long-term Projections ............................................................................................ ... iv Acknowledgments................................................................................................................ .......... iv Introduction and Projections Overview ......................................................................................... ..1 Key Assumptions and Implications .............................................................................................. ...2 Macroeconomic Assumptions ..................................................................................................... .....6 Agricultural Trade ............................................................................................................ ..............19 U.S. Crops .................................................................................................................... ..................60
U.S. Livestock ................................................................................................................ ................81 U.S. Agricultural Sector Aggregate Indicators: Farm Income, U.S. Trade Value, Food Prices, and Food Expenditures 

### .................................90
List of Tables ................................................................................................................ ...............100

Features in this Report Page Financial Crisis in the Eurozone: Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports ........................... 9 Macroeconomic Risks in the Projections ............................................................................... 10
Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks ............................................................................................... 2 3

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 iii A Note to Users of USDA Long-term Projections
USDA’s long-term agricultural projections presented in this report are a Departmental consensus on a longrun scenario for the agricultural sector. These projections provide a starting point for discussion of alternative outcomes for the sector.
The scenario presented in this report is not a USDA forecast about the future. Instead, it is a conditional, longrun scenario about what would be expected to happen under a continuation of current farm legislation and specific assumptions about external conditions. Critical long-term assumptions are made for U.S. and international macroeconomic conditions, U.S. and foreign agricultural and trade policies, and growth rates of agricultural productivity in the United States and abroad. The report assumes that there are no domestic or external shocks that would affect global agricultural supply and demand. Normal weather is assumed. Changes in any of these assumptions can significantly affect the projections, and actual conditions that emerge will alter the outcomes.
The report uses as a starting point the short-term projections from the November 2010 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2010.
The projections analysis was conducted by in teragency committees in USDA and reflects a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. The Economic Research Service had the lead role in preparing the departmental report. The projections and the report were reviewed and cleared by the Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee, chaired by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA participants in the projections analysis and review include the World Agricultural Outlook Board; the Economic Research Service; the Farm Service Agency; the Foreign Agricultural Service; the Agricultural Marketing Service; the Office of the Chief Economist; the Office of Budget and Program Analysis; the Risk Management Agency; the Natural Resources Conservation Service; and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

### iv USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Long-term Projections on the Internet
USDA’s Economic Research Service has a briefing room for long-term projections at:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/projections/
Also, data from the new USDA long-term projections are available electronically at:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1192

Contacts for Long-term Projections
Questions regarding these projections may be directed to:
Paul Westcott, Economic Research Service, Room 5188, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5335, e-mail: westcott@ers.usda.gov
Ronald Trostle, Economic Research Service, Room 5190, 1800 M Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036-5831, phone: (202) 694-5280, e-mail: rtrostle@ers.usda.gov
David Stallings, World Agricultural Outlook Board, MS 3812, 1400 Independence Ave., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-3812, phone: (202) 720-5715, e-mail: dstallings@oce.usda.gov

Acknowledgments
The report coordinators, on behalf of the Inte ragency Agricultural Projections Committee, thank the many analysts in different agencies of USDA for their contributions to the long-term projections analysis and to the preparation and review of this report.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 1 

# USDA Agricultural Projections to 2020
Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee
Introduction and Projections Overview

This report provides longrun projections for the agricultural sector through 2020. Major forces and uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets are discussed, such as prospects for long-term global economic growth and population trends. Projections cover production and consumption for agricultural commodities, global agricultural trade and U.S. exports, commodity prices, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food prices. The projections are a conditional scenario based on specific assumptions about the macroeconomy, agricultural and trade policies, the weather, and international developments. The report assumes that there are no domestic or external shocks that would affect global agricultural markets. Normal weather is assumed. Provisions of current law are assumed to remain in effect through the projection period, including the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (the 2008 Farm Act), the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008. Thus, the projections are not intended to be a forecast of what the future will be, but instead are a description of what would be expect ed to happen under these very specific external circumstances and assumptions. As such, the projec tions provide a neutral, reference scenario that can serve as a point of departure for discussion of alternative farm sector outcomes that could result under different domestic or international assumptions. The projections in this report were prepared during October through December 2010 and reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses. Short-term projections used as a starting point in this report are from the November 2010 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2010.Prospects for the agricultural sector in the near term reflect market adjustments to the supply-anddemand conditions underlying recent high prices for many farm commodities. In response, global agricultural production increases in 2011, particularly for grains. Production adjustments are made in the livestock sector during the first several years of the projections in response to high grain and soybean meal prices in 2011. The high prices underlie record projected levels of U.S. agricultural exports and U.S. net farm income in 2011. Longrun developments for global agriculture reflect a resumption of steady world economic growth following the global recession and continued demand for biofuels, particularly in the United States and the European Union (EU). These factors combine to support longer run increases in consumption, trade, and prices for agricultural products. Thus, after near-term reductions from 2011 records, the value of U.S. agricultural exports and net farm income each rise through the rest of the decade. U.S. retail food prices increase faster than the general inflation rate in 2011 and 2012, reflecting higher food commodity prices and energy costs. Food prices rise less than the overall rate of inflation over the remainder of the projections, largely reflecting production increases in the livestock sector which limit meat price increases.

### 2 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Key Assumptions and Implications

Major assumptions underlying the projections and selected implications include:

Economic Growth

 U.S. and world economic growth reflect a movement back toward long-run steady growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and economic recession.

 Global economic growth is assumed at a 3.4-percent average growth rate for 2011-2020. Continued high growth rates in emerging market countries, such as China and India, and a return to strong growth in other developing countries underpin world macroeconomic gains.

 The U.S. economy is projected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent over the next decade. With slower growth in the United States than in the world economy, the U.S. share of global gross domestic product (GDP) falls from over 26 percent currently to less than 25 percent at the end of the projection period. Employment gains are projected to be slow, with high rates of unemployment lasting for a number of years.

 In the longer run, the return to steady global economic growth supports longer term gains in world food demand, global agricultural trade, and U.S. agricultural exports. Economic growth in developing countries is especially important because food consumption and feed use are particularly responsive to income grow th in those countries, with movement away from staple foods and increased diversification of diets.
Population

 Stronger global economic growth over the next decade contributes to the continued slowing of population gains around the world as birth rates decline. Growth in global population is assumed to average about 1 percent per year over the projection period compared with average annual rates of 1.7 percent in the 1980s, 1.4 percent in the 1990s, and 1.2 percent in the last decade.

 Population growth rates in most developing countries remain above those in the rest of the world. As a consequence, the share of world population accounted for by developing countries increases to 82 percent by 2020, up from 74 percent in 1980 and 77 percent in 1990.

 Population gains in developing countries along with increased urbanization and expansion of the middle class are particularly important for the projected growth in global food demand. Developing countries’ populations, in contrast to those of more developed countries, are dominated by younger population cohorts who consume larger quantities of food of increasingly diverse types.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 3 The Value of the U.S. Dollar

 The U.S. dollar is assumed to depreciate somewhat over the next decade. Although there has been a recent depreciation of the euro due to the sovereign debt problems in the EU, the longer term depreciation of the dollar relative to the euro and yen is part of an ongoing global rebalancing of international currency portfolios.

 The weaker dollar will remain a facilitating factor in projected gains in U.S. agricultural exports. Although trade competition will continue to be strong, the United States will remain competitive in global agricultural markets, with export gains contributing to increases in cash receipts for U.S. farmers.
Oil Prices

 Crude oil prices are assumed to increase over the next decade as global economic activity improves. Increases are expected to be faster than the general inflation rate, with the nominal refiner acquisition cost for crude oil imports projected to exceed $110 per barrel by the end of the projection period.

 These increases in crude oil prices raise production costs in the agricultural sector.
U.S. Agricultural Policy

 Provisions of current law, particularly the 2008 Farm Act, are assumed to remain in effect through the projection period.

 Under the 2008 Farm Act, the maximum acreage enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) was reduced from 39.2 million acres to 32 million acres, beginning on October 1, 2009. Acreage enrolled in the program has fallen from more than 36 million acres to about 31.4 million acres and is projected to remain close to its legislated maximum throughout the projections. This reduction in CRP acreage provides some additional cropland for potential use in production.

 With high prices for many crops, price-depende nt farm program benefits have become less important in overall Government payments to the U.S. agricultural sector. 

### The CRP and fixed direct payments represent most payments to the sector throughout the projection period. As a consequence, Government payments have a smaller role and the sector relies on the market for more of its income.

### 4 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 U.S. Biofuels

 The projections assume that the 45-cents-per-gallon tax credit available to blenders of ethanol and the 54-cents-per-gallon tariff on imported ethanol used as fuel are in effect through the projection period. The $1.00-per-gallon tax credit for blending biodiesel, which had expired at the end of 2009, was not assumed to be available since its retroactive reinstatement and extension through 2011 occurred after these projections were completed.

 Expansion in the U.S. ethanol industry is projected to continue. However, growth is projected to be slower than the rapid gains during 2005-09, despite some potential to increase into the E15 (15-percent ethanol blend) market for some vehicles. The projections reflect the October 2010 approval by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of E15 for use in model year 2007 and newer passenger vehicles (including cars, sport utility vehicles, and light pickup trucks), but were completed before the more-recent EPA announcement of E15 approval for model years 2001-06.

 Corn is expected to remain the primary feedstock for U.S. ethanol production during the projection period, with about 36 percent of total corn use going to ethanol production over the next decade. Nonetheless, smaller gains for corn-based ethanol are projected, reflecting only moderate growth in overall gasoline consumption in the United States, limited potential for further market penetration of ethanol into the E10 (10-percent ethanol blend) market, constraints in the E15 market, and the small size of the E85 (85-percent ethanol blend) market. By the end of the projection period, corn-based ethanol production represents more than 10 percent of annual gasoline consumption.

 Biodiesel production in the United States is assumed to increase to 1 billion gallons by 2012. Almost half of this volume is assumed to be from domestic first-use vegetable oils, with animal fats and recycled vegetable oil accounting for the remainder.

Livestock and Meat Trade

 The projections assume continued policies in Russia that build toward self sufficiency in their poultry and pork sectors.

 Beef exports from competitor countries of Argentina, Australia, and Canada increase slowly as those countries rebuild breeding herds.

 The projections were completed before the recent outbreak of food and mouth disease in South Korea.
International Policy

 Trade projections assume that countries comply with existing bilateral and multilateral agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural trade. The report incorporates effects of trade agreements and domestic policies in place in November 2010.

 Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries are assumed to continue to evolve along their current paths, based on the consensus judgment of USDA’s regional and commodity analysts. In particular, long-term economic and trade reforms in many developing countries are assumed to continue.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 5 International Biofuels

 Demand for biofuel feedstocks is projected to continue growing in a number of countries. The largest markets—the United States, Brazil and the EU—will grow at a slower pace than in recent years. Continued expansion is largely due to biofuel policies, mainly use mandates and tax incentives.

 The projections assume that 60 percent of the EU 2020 mandate, that renewable fuels provide 10 percent of the energy used in the transportation sector, is achieved from annual agricultural crop feedstocks. Biodiesel accounts for 60 percent of total biofuel use in 2020 and ethanol accounts for 40 percent, compared with 69 percent for biodiesel and 31 percent for ethanol estimated for 2010.

 To boost biodiesel production, the EU is projected to increase oilseed production as well as imports of oilseeds and vegetable oil from countries in the former Soviet Union and non-EU Europe. EU wheat provides the feedstock for EU ethanol expansion in the early years but corn used as an ethanol feedstock grows more rapidly toward the end of the projections.

 The EU imports biodiesel from Argentina and ethanol from Brazil, and is the world’s largest importer of both throughout the projection period. Overall, biofuel imports become increasingly important in the EU, rising to about one-fourth of total use.

Prices

 Prices for major crops are projected to decline in the near term as production globally responds to current high prices. Nonetheless, after near-term price declines, long-term growth in global demand for agricultural products, in combination with the continued presence of U.S. ethanol demand for corn and EU biodiesel demand for vegetable oils, holds prices for corn, oilseeds, and many other crops at historically high levels.

 Adjustments in the U.S. livestock sector to high feed costs continue in the near term, lowering production of total meat and poultry and raising livestock and meat prices. Improving net returns provide economic incentives for expansion later in the decade, with nominal livestock prices rising moderately over most of the rest of the projection period.

 Although farm income initially declines from a projected 2011 record, strengthening global food demand and sustained biofuel demand keep net farm income historically high.

 U.S. retail food prices rise faster than the general inflation rate in 2011 and 2012, reflecting higher food commodity prices, rising energy costs, and improved demand as the economic recovery continues. Food prices rise less than the overall rate of inflation over the remainder of the projections, largely reflecting production increases in the livestock sector which limit meat price increases.

### 6 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 

## Macroeconomic Assumptions The United States and much of the developed world are moving to steady growth following the most serious worldwide economic downturn since the end of World War II. Given the depth and widespread nature of the recession, the transition has been characterized by slow economic growth and slow employment gains, and is likely to result in high rates of unemployment lasting a number of years. Thus, macroeconomic assumptions underlying USDA’s long-term projections reflect this slow transition back toward longrun sustainable growth in 2011 and beyond. Implicit in this baseline is the assumption that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and other major central banks around the world continue to take aggressive action, as ne eded, to counter the continuing financial problems lingering from the recession. Even with these actions, evolving situations will affect the recovery and provide risks for the longer term outlook. (See boxes, Financial Crisis in the Eurozone: Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports , page 9; and Macroeconomic Risks in the Projections
, page 10.) The macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2010. After averaging 2.9-percent growth between 2001 and 2008, overall global real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 2.1 percent in 2009. World economic growth for 2010 is estimated to be 3.3 percent. From 2011 through 2020, world growth is pr ojected to increase at an annual average rate of 3.5 percent. Most of these economic gains reflect continued high growth rates in emerging market countries such as China and India and a return to strong growth in other developing countries. While developed countries’ share of global real GDP is still more than 60 percent at the end of the projection period, that is down from 80 percent in 1970 and almost 70 percent in 2007. Following a contraction of about 2.6 percent in 2009, the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.4 to 2.5 percent in 2010 and 2011, 2.8 percent in 2012, and then settle at a longer term rate of 2.6 percent in 2013 and beyond. With U.S. GDP growing more slowly than the world economy throughout the projections period, the U.S. share of global GDP falls below 25 percent by 2020.

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. and world gross domestic product (GDP) growth

Percent

World

United States

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 7 Agricultural Implications The return of global economic growth beginning in 2010 and the continuation of population gains are expected to boost food demand. This is particularly true since world growth is concentrated in emerging markets and developing countries with high income-related propensities for consumption of food and agricultural products. In addition, growing biofuel demand will remain an important factor shaping the projections for world trade, U.S. agricultural exports, and commodity prices. Also supporting the outlook for U.S. agricultural exports is the cumulative effect of the depreciated U.S. dollar since 2002 and its continued decline through the projection period. The declining dollar makes U.S. agricultural exports increasingly competitive in international markets.

### 8 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Developed economies are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent in 2011-20, more than half a percentage point lower than the 1970-2008 historical average. Both the European Union (EU) and Japan experienced more severe r ecessions than the United States, with prospects for both countries growing more slowly than the U.S. economy in coming years.

 Economic growth rates for the EU remain about 2 percent per year in the projection period, somewhat less than their historical average. The EU was less aggressive in combating the impact of the global financial crisis than was the United States. The Eurozone crisis of 2010 further set back growth prospects for the EU (see box, Financial Crisis in the Eurozone: Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports ). Lingering structural rigidities, particularly inflexible labor laws and a very expensive social security system, impinge on growth and the EU financial system. Political difficulties also limit the benefits of economic integration, particularly with continued restrictions on labor mobility between EU countries and the cumbersome EU Commission decisionmaking process. Unemployment rates are expected to decline from double-digit rates in the projection period.

 The projections assume economic growth in Japan averages around 1.4 percent per year, a continuation of the slow growth and deflationary environment that Japan has experienced since the 1990s. Japan continues to face constraints to economic growth, largely the result of long-term structural rigidities (such as legal constraints on new business entry), a difficult political process for economic reform, and a rapidly aging population. Japan’s labor market liberalization partly eases these constraints, aiding some productivity growth. Increasing integration with the other economies of Asia, especially China, will mitigate some of the growth constraints in the Japanese economy. Nonetheless, while Japan is a heavily trade-dependent country, its trade-dependent sectors have declined significantly. The yen has continued to appreciate against the dollar in spite of the interventions of Japan’s central bank to moderate the appreciation. Slow growth prospects in Japan relative to high growth in other major Asian countries suggest that the importance of Japan in the global economy will diminish throughout the projection period. -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 GDP growth for developed countries, European Union, and Japan

Percent

Developed countries

Japan European Union

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 9 Financial Crisis in the Eurozone: Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports
The Eurozone Crisis of 2010 was the result of the evolution of large current account imbalances between Eurozone countries. The large fiscal debt accumulation in Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, and Italy became unsustainable. The resulting dramatic increase in the market cost of credit to those countries precipitated the crisis.
The creation of a European Financial Stabilization Facility to support the sovereign debt of Eurozone deficit countries put a short-term halt to the threat of default. The facility, largely funded by Germany, is also based on commitments by the deficit countries to institute austerity measures to substantially reduce Government deficits. The longer term outcome will depend largely on whether the programs put in place to address the imbalances in trade and Government finances are effective.
One potential outcome of the crisis would be a sustained long-term depreciation of the euro against the dollar and other currencies. In this case, Eurozone products would become more competitive in world markets. On the other hand, some investment that would have gone to the Eurozone would instead go to other countries. This investment would strengthen global growth and demand for agricultural products, particularly in developing economies, and thus benefit U.S. agricultural exports. On balance, even with near-term appreciation relative to the euro, the U.S. dollar still depreciates overall and remains relatively low co mpared with currencies of most of its export markets. This depreciation facilitates continued strength in U.S. agricultural exports over the projection period.

### 10 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 

### Macroeconomic Risks in the Projections
Macroeconomic assumptions behind the projections in this report include a modest recovery in the U.S. economy, with a return to steady long-term growth and a pickup in job growth in late 2011. Economic gains in the rest of the developed world, which have been uneven in the early part of the recovery, are expected to pick up in late 2011. Developing economies overall are now in an expansion phase starting in China and India (whose economies showed no signs of an overall recession) joined by much of Latin America and almost all of Asia in 2010. Thus, the overall world economy is expected to return to near longer term trend growth rates by mid 2011 although, unlike many previous recovery periods, no sharp short-term bounce back with accelerated growth is assumed. Nonetheless, even with this return to sustained world economic growth, there has been a dramatic change in the underlying macroeconomic policy environment and an increased risk of downside scenarios from multiple sources.
Labor Market Risks in Developed Economies . The potential for a noticeable slowing of world and U.S. growth in 2011-20 is substantial. Relatively slow growth in the United States and other developed countries implies continuing high levels of unemployment. The U.S. unemployment rate is projected to remain persistently high and to stay above 6 percent until 2018-20.
Prolonged weakness in U.S. labor markets would have important implications for trend productivity and output growth due to both supply side and demand side risks. On the supply side, relatively high unemployment could substantially curtail growth in the capacity of the U.S. economy. Larger unemployment would imply substantial risks to labor incomes, potentially dampening consumption and causing aggregate demand growth to stagnate. Similar risks are present in the European economies.

Financial Market Risks . There remain notable risks to U.S. and world economic growth because of continuing problems in financial markets. The potential for a substantial decline in the euro due to problems with the internal Eurozone structural debt could be confined to European financial markets or could affect U.S. and other financial markets with uncertain consequences for world growth.
Additionally, due to increased economic and financial market uncertainty, consumers in developed economies could decide to add to savings, thereby shrinking consumer spending growth. Such a reduction in consumer spending could weaken corporate profits and cause a decline in stock markets, further increasing uncertainty. In this climate, the rise in savings and reduction in consumer spending could lower trend growth in developed economies and thereby dampen growth in developing economies.

-- Continued

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 11 Macroeconomic Risks in the Projections (Continued)

U.S. Business Confidence Risks. The recovery of business confidence in the United States is a prerequisite to achieving sustained employment gains and economic growth. Businesses are now keeping record-high levels of cash and, while they are replenishing inventories and replacing old equipment, they are generally not starting many new major business projects. For the domestic economy to have sustained growth and move toward full employment, business confidence needs to improve so that new business projects can move forward. As a business cycle matures, business confidence typically rises, leading to job growth and increasing demand for capital as new business projects are started. Thus, a weaker recovery of business confidence represents a major risk to domestic GDP growth, employment gains, and consumer spending increases.

U.S. Dollar Risks. If the U.S. economy were to undergo a longer and deeper recession due to some combination of the factors above, one low-probability outcome could be a weakening of the U.S. dollar as the default reserve currency in the world. Such an outcome would imply a substantial decline in the dollar’s value and a potential decline in U.S. living standards. In turn, this would lead to lower U.S. demand for raw materials and manufactured goods from developing countries, lowering their growth as well. For agriculture, implications would depend on how weaker economic growth and demand gains in the developing economies would balance against agricultural trade effects of a sharply lower dollar.

China’s Inflation Risks. China may face a more difficult problem in constraining inflation in the next decade than in the last, as industrial commodity and wage inflation speed up. Consumer price inflation went above 3 percent in the fall of 2010, despite a 2 to 3 percent appreciation of the yuan, a modest tightening of credit, and a Government edict to prevent provincial hoarding of coal and oil. Bank reserve requirements were raised six times in 2010, and short-term interest rates were increased as well. However, as inflation in China continued to rise, many analysts suggested that the increases in bank reserve requirements, inte rest rates, and the yuan were too modest. A medium-term risk is that fighting inflation may sharply limit bank credit expansion and thus slow GDP growth. The yuan may be allowed to appreciat e more rapidly than projected to keep Chinese inflation in check.

### 12 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Economic growth in developing countries is project ed to average close to 6 percent annually during 2011-20. These countries were mu ch less affected by the global r ecession than were the developed countries. The pattern of developing countries prod ucing and consuming a larger share of world output, relative to developed countries, strengthens in the projections.

 Developing countries will play an increasingly impo rtant role in the global economy and growth in food demand, and will become a more important de stination for U.S. agricultural exports. High income growth, along with high responsiveness of consumption and imports of food and feed, drives this result. As incomes rise in developing countries, consumers tend to diversify their diets, increasing their relative consumption of meat, dair y products, fruits, vegetables, and processed foods (including vegetable oils). These shifts increase import demand for feedstuffs and high-value food products.

 Continued strong growth in China, India, and the rest of Asia make this region an increasingly important part of the global economy, with deve loping Asia’s share of world GDP rising to 22 percent by the end of the projection period. Pr ojected growth for Southeast Asia is 5.2 percent for the next decade while growth in developing countries of East Asia is projected to be more than 7 percent.

 China’s economic growth has been consistently th e strongest in Asia, aver aging almost 10 percent between 2001 and 2010. While some slowing is e xpected, China’s growth is expected to average more than 8 percent over the next decade and will account for almost 12 percent of the world economy. India’s projected average economic growth of almost 8 per cent per year puts it in the top tier of high-growth countries. Nonetheless, I ndia remains a low-income country, with real (inflation-adjusted) 2005-based per capita income of $962 in 2010, co mpared with $2,800 in China. Continued strong income growth in India and China is expected to bring their real per capita income to $1,800 and nearly $6,000 by 20 20. This continued rapid growth in per capita income is expected to move a significant number of people out of poverty.

 Latin America sustains projected growth of about 4.4 percent per year. An overall improvement in macroeconomic policies has attracted foreign capital inflows (particularly foreign direct investment to Chile, Colombia, and Brazil) an d sustained growth in the region.



###  Economic growth in the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) is projected to average 3.6 percent annually for the next decade as these countries return to sustainable growth after their shift to more market-oriented economies. Russia and other energy-rich FSU countries also benefit from relatively high oil prices. -15 -12

-9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 GDP growth for developing economies and the former Soviet Union

Percent
Developing Asia

Former Soviet Union Latin America Africa

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 13 World population growth continues to slow over the next decade, rising about 1 percent per year for the projection period compared to an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the 1980s.

 Developed countries have very low projected rates of population growth, at 0.4 percent over 2011-20. Projected annual average population growth rates for the United States in the 0.8 to 0.9 percent range over the period are the highest among developed countries, in part reflecting large immigration. Japan’s population is projected to decline by an average of 0.4 percent over the projection period.

 Overall, population in the FSU is projected to decline moderately. Population growth rates in developing economies are projected to be sharply lower than rates in the 1980s and 1990s, but remain above those in developed countries and the FSU. As a result, the share of world population accounted for by developing countries increases to 82 percent by 2020, compared to 74 percent in 1980.

 China and India together account for 37 percent of the world’s population. China’s population growth rate slows from 1.5 percent per year in 1981-90 to 0.4 percent in 2011-20. The population growth rate in India, the world’s second most populous nation, is projected to decline from 2.0 percent to 1.2 percent per year over the same period.

 Brazil’s population growth rate falls from 2.1 percent per year in 1981-90 to 1 percent annually in 2011-20. Although Sub-Saharan Africa’s population growth rate declines from 2.9 percent to 2.3 percent per year between the same periods, this region continues to have the highest population growth rate of any region in the world.

 There are a number of countries with declining populations, including Germany, Italy, Spain, Russia, Ukraine, some other countries in Western and Central Europe, and Japan. South Africa is projected to have a declining population resulting from the continuing AIDS epidemic. -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-10 2011-20 Population growth continues to slow

Percent

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. World United States Former Soviet Union Africa Middle East

Asia Latin America Developing countries

Developed countries

### 14 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 The U.S. dollar is projected to depreciate moderately through the projection period and thus continue to facilitate growth in U.S. agricultural exports. Among agricultural products, U.S. exports of bulk commodities and horticultural products tend to be the most sensitive to movements in the U.S. dollar’s value, because they face more global trade competition. The dollar depreciation is part of a global rebalancing of trade and financial markets in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and recession.

 Strong GDP growth in the United States relative to the EU and Japan will tend to mitigate the continued appreciation of the euro and yen to the U.S. dollar. The immediate effect of the debt crisis in Greece was a depreciation of the euro relative to the dollar, with the euro depreciating by about 25 percent between December 2009 and June 2010. In the longer term, a depreciation of the dollar relative to the euro and yen is likely as part of the global rebalancing of international currency portfolios.

 China initiated a process for appreciating its currency in 2005 after a long period of maintaining a fixed nominal exchange rate and an undervalued currency. However, that process was halted in 2008. After nearly two years of maintaining a constant nominal exchange rate of the yuan to the dollar, the Chinese Central Bank announced in June 2010 that they will allow increased flexibility in the bilateral exchange rate. Since then, there has been a very modest 2-3 percent nominal appreciation of the yuan. The projections assume that China allows its real exchange rate to continue to appreciate modestly. The real appreciation of yuan also leads to some appreciation of other Asian currencies. These developments will strengthen U.S. agricultural exports to Asian countries. 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar continues depreciation 1/ Index values, 2005=100

1/ Real U.S. agricultural trade-weighted dollar exchange rate, using U.S. agricultural export weights, based on 192 countries.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 15 Crude oil prices are assumed to increase over the projection period as global economic activity picks up. From 2011 through 2020, crude oil prices are expected to rise somewhat faster than the general inflation rate. By the end of the projection period, the nominal refiner acquisition cost for crude oil imports is projected to be around $110 per barrel. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. crude oil prices
Dollars per barrel Refiner acquisition cost, crude oil imports

Refiner acquisition cost,

adjusted for inflation

### 16 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 1. U.S. macroeconomic assumptions Item 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

GDP, billion dollars Nominal 14,119 14,574 15,118 15,758 16,492 17,293 18,133 19,013 19,937 20,905 21,921 22,985 Real 2005 chained dollars 12,881 13,190 13,519 13,898 14,259 14,630 15,010 15,401 15,801 16,212 16,634 17,066 percent change -2.6 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

Disposable personal income Nominal (billion dollars) 11,035 11,344 11,741 12,246 12,834 13,475 14,149 14,856 15,599 16,379 17,198 18,058 percent change 0.7 2.8 3.5 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Nominal per capita, dollars 35,888 36,567 37,517 38,792 40,307 41,964 43,694 45,498 47,381 49,346 51,396 53,535 percent change -0.1 1.9 2.6 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 Real (billion 2005 chained dollars) 10,100 10,302 10,539 10,845 11,148 11,460 11,781 12,111 12,450 12,799 13,157 13,526 percent change 0.6 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Real per capita, 2005 chained dollars 32,848 33,209 33,676 34,353 35,013 35,690 36,382 37,091 37,816 38,559 39,320 40,098 percent change -0.3 1.1 1.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Consumer spending Real (billion 2005 chained dollars) 9,154 9,364 9,589 9,839 10,084 10,337 10,595 10,860 11,131 11,410 11,695 11,987 percent change -1.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Inflation measures GDP price index, chained, 2005=100 109.6 110.5 111. 8 113.4 115.7 118.2 120.8 123.5 126.2 128.9 131.8 134.7 percent change 2.2 0.8 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 CPI-U, 1982-84=100 214.5 217.1 220.6 224.8 230.4 236.2 242.1 248.1 254.3 260.7 267.2 273.9 percent change -0.4 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 PPI, finished goods 1982=100 172.5 181.0 188.2 192.0 195.6 199.3 203.1 207.0 210.9 214.9 219.0 223.1 percent change -2.6 4.9 4.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 PPI, crude goods 1982=100 175.2 210.3 218.7 223.0 225.3 227.5 229.8 232.1 234.4 236.8 239.1 241.5 percent change -30.4 20.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Crude oil price, $/barrel EIA refiner acq. cost, imports 59.0 74.9 80.1 84.0 87.0 90.0 93.2 96.5 99.9 103.4 107.0 110.8 percent change -36.2 26.8 6.9 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 Real 2005 chained dollars 53.9 67.8 71.6 74. 1 75.2 76.1 77.1 78.1 79.1 80.2 81.2 82.3 percent change -36.8 25.8 5.6 3.5 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Labor compensation per hour nonfarm business, 2005=100 113.5 116.0 118.9 122. 0 125.4 128.9 132.5 136.2 140.0 143.9 147.9 152.0 percent change 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8

Interest rates, percent 3-month Treasury bills 0.2 0.4 2.8 4.0 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 3-month commercial paper 0.3 1.8 3.0 4.2 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 Bank prime rate 3.3 4.0 5.4 6.8 7.7 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 10-year Treasury bonds 3.3 3.5 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 Moody's Aaa bond yield index 5.3 4.8 5.4 5.7 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2

Labor and population

Civilian unemploymen t rate, percen t 9.3 9.7 9.3 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 Nonfarm payroll emp., millions 130.9 130.3 131. 6 133.2 134.5 135.9 137.2 138.6 139.8 141.0 142.1 143.2 percent change -4.3 -0.5 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8

Total population, millions 307.5 310.2 313.0 315.7 318.4 321.1 323.8 326.5 329.2 331.9 334.6 337.3 percent change 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Domestic macroeconomic assumptions w ere completed in October 2010. CPI-U is the consumer price index for all urban consumers. PPI is the producer price index. EIA is the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 17 Table 2. Global real GDP grow th assumptions

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020
Bil. 2005 dollars Percent 2005 dollars Percent change World 48,350 100.0 7,164 -2.1 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.6 2.7 2.4 3.4 Less United States 35,469 73.1 5,506 -1.9 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.9 2.5 2.7 3.7

North America 14,128 29.5 41,436 -2.6 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.6 3.4 1.7 2.7

Canada 1,248 2.6 37,262 -2.5 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.0 3.2 United States 12,881 26.9 41,890 -2.6 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 3.4 1.6 2.6

Latin America 3,085 6.3 5,281 -2.0 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 3.1 3.0 4.4

Mexico 787 1.7 7,075 -6.5 4.5 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.5 1.6 4.0 Caribbean & Central America 318 0.7 3,911 -0.5 1.9 3.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 3.1 2.7 4.1 South America 1,980 4.0 5,056 -0.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.5 3.0 3.6 4.5

Argentina 221 0.4 5,411 0.9 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.8 4.4 4.1 3.8 Brazil 1,072 2.3 5,656 -0.2 6.5 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.8 2.6 3.4 4.7 Other 635 1.3 4,176 -0.7 2.6 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 3.3 3.8 4.3

Europe 14,775 31.1 27,169 -4.1 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.2 2.1

European Union-27 13,936 29.4 27,340 -4.2 0.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.2 2.1 Other Europe 839 1.7 24,601 -1.8 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 1.8 1.8 2.3

Former Soviet Union 1,178 2.5 4,267 -7.1 4.1 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.9 -4.0 5.3 3.6

Russia 896 1.9 6,401 -7.9 4.0 4.3 3.8 3.8 3.5 -3.6 4.8 3.4 Ukraine 85 0.2 1,859 -15.1 3.6 5.8 6.9 5.7 5.4 -7.7 4.5 5.1 Other 197 0.4 2,179 1.0 4.9 5.1 4.7 4.2 4.9 -3.8 8.3 4.0

Asia and Oceania 12,493 25.2 3,342 1.1 6.2 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 3.7 4.2 5.1

East Asia 9,139 18.5 5,962 0.3 6.3 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.3 3.4 4.0 4.9

China 3,385 6.4 2,557 8.7 10.8 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.8 10.5 9.9 8.3 Hong Kong 196 0.4 27,848 -2.8 5.6 5.1 5.6 5.3 4.8 4.5 4.0 4.4 Japan 4,203 9.0 33,074 -5.3 3.0 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.8 1.4 South Korea 956 1.9 19,702 0.2 5.3 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.0 6.2 4.0 3.8 Taiw an 383 0.8 16,651 -1.9 6.6 4.5 5.9 5.0 4.5 6.5 3.5 4.2 Southeast Asia 1,131 2.3 1,887 1.1 6.1 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.7 5.2

Indonesia 371 0.7 1,546 4.5 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.0 4.4 5.2 5.7 Malaysia 156 0.3 5,610 -1.7 6.7 5.1 5.8 5.2 5.0 7.2 4.4 5.0 Philippines 124 0.3 1,267 0.9 5.0 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.7 3.1 4.4 4.7 Thailand 207 0.4 3,111 -2.3 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.6 4.1 4.8 Vietnam 69 0.1 775 5.3 6.5 7.0 7.2 6.9 6.4 7.4 7.2 6.9 South Asia 1,308 2.5 832 7.1 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.5 5.2 7.0 7.4

Bangladesh 68 0.1 444 5.9 5.5 6.0 6.3 6.1 6.1 4.8 5.7 5.9 India 1,043 2.0 902 7.6 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.2 8.0 5.5 7.5 7.9 Pakistan 141 0.3 779 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.9 4.4 4.0 5.2 4.3 Oceania 915 1.9 26,337 1.1 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.5 2.9 3.2

Australia 779 1.6 36,659 1.3 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.0 3.2 New Zealand 104 0.2 24,651 -0.5 2.5 2.3 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.7

Middle East 1,542 3.1 5,420 -1.0 4.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.7 3.6 4.0 4.4

Iran 223 0.5 2,932 -2.2 3.2 5.2 4.4 4.3 4.4 2.6 5.1 4.1 Iraq 85 0.2 2,920 5.6 7.5 7.9 7.3 6.9 6.0 9.5 11.9 6.1 Saudi Arabia 350 0.7 13,828 0.6 3.2 4.5 5.2 5.3 4.9 2.6 3.6 4.3 Turkey 367 0.8 4,775 -4.7 5.7 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.5 3.6 3.6 4.5 Other 517 1.0 6,687 0.1 3.4 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.3 4.3

Africa 1,149 2.3 1,170 2.2 4.6 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.2 4.6 4.8

North Africa 381 0.8 2,366 3.4 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.3 3.5 4.6 4.0

Algeria 111 0.2 3,246 2.0 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 1.7 3.9 3.0 Egypt 125 0.2 1,590 4.7 5.2 5.8 5.0 4.2 4.0 4.5 5.0 4.3 Morocco 65 0.1 7,361 4.9 3.8 4.8 5.2 5.1 5.0 2.4 4.7 4.5 Tunisia 34 0.1 2,065 3.1 4.2 4.6 5.2 5.9 5.5 4.8 4.6 4.9 Sub-Saharan Africa 767 1.5 935 1.6 4.7 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.3 1.6 4.7 5.2

South Africa 248 0.5 5,063 -1.8 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.8 4.2 1.8 3.2 4.4 Other Sub-Saharan Africa 519 1.0 673 3.2 5.5 6.3 5.8 5.8 5.8 1.5 5.4 5.5 Average Share of w orld GDP 2007-2009 Region/country

International macroeconomic assumptions w ere based on information available in July 2010. Per capita income, 2009 GDP, 2009

### 18 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 3. Population grow th assumptions

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020 Millions Percent change

World 1 6,749 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.0 Less United States 6,442 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.0

North America 341 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.8

Canada 33 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.8 United States 307 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8

Latin America 584 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.1

Mexico 111 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.0 Caribbean & Central America 81 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.3 1.1 South America 392 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.1

Argentina 41 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 Brazil 199 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.0 Other 152 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.1

Europe 544 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1

European Union-27 510 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 Other Europe 34 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0

Former Soviet Union 276 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1

Russia 140 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 Ukraine 46 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 Other 90 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7

Asia and Oceania 3,738 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.9

East Asia 1,533 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.3

China 1,324 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.4 Hong Kong 7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.6 0.6 0.3 Japan 127 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.4 South Korea 49 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 Taiw an 23 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 Southeast Asia 600 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.8 1.4 1.1

Indonesia 240 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.0 Malaysia 28 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.6 2.0 1.4 Philippines 98 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.1 1.8 Thailand 67 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.5 Vietnam 89 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 South Asia 1,571 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.6 1.3

Bangladesh 154 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 India 1,157 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.2 Pakistan 181 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.5 1.9 1.5 Oceania 35 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2

Australia 21 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 New Zealand 4 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.8

Middle East 284 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 2.2 1.9 1.5

Iran 76 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.2 Iraq 29 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.2 Saudi Arabia 25 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.9 1.9 1.5 Turkey 77 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.1 Other 77 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.7 3.1 2.8 1.8

Africa 982 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.2

North Africa 161 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.5

Algeria 34 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.3 1.1 Egypt 79 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.1 1.8 Morocco 31 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.3 1.8 Tunisia 10 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 820 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.3

South Africa 49 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1.6 0.9 -0.1 Other Sub-Saharan Africa 771 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 Average Population

in 2009 Region/country

1/ Totals for the w orld and w orld less United States include countries not other w ise listed in the table. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau and U. S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. The population assumptions w ere completed in July 2010 based on the June 2010 update from the U.S. Census Bureau.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 19 

## Agricultural Trade

Renewed economic growth following the global recession began in 2010. During the 2011-2020 projection period, income growth is projected to continue and to be slightly above the historical average long-term rate during the last half of the period. This growth provides a foundation for gains in world demand and trade for agricultural products. Consequently, agricultural product prices are projected to remain historically high.
Historical Background for Trade Projections Since the beginning of 2002, fluctuations in production, trade, and stocks of agricultural commodities have been unusually large, and have been contributing factors to wide price fluctuations. Between January 2002 and June 2008, an index of monthly-average world prices of wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans rose 226 percent and then declined 40 percent in the following 6 months. By June 2010, the index had fallen another 11 percent. The price index then rose 55 percent by December 2010 and stood at about 172 percent above the January 2002 level, although still 17 percent below the June 2008 peak. The 55-percent increase between June and December 2010 raised concerns about another major food-commodity price spike as in 2007-08.

The main factors contributing to this recent increas e in staple food prices was a series of weather events, beginning with a severe drought in Russia and parts of Ukraine and Kazakhstan that reduced production of all crops, but particularly wheat. In late summer 2010, yield prospects for U.S. corn declined due to high temperatures during pollination. About the same time, rain on the nearly mature wheat crops in Canada and northwestern Europe reduced the quality of much of the crop to feed-grade wheat. Continued drought in the former Soviet Union significantly reduced winter wheat plantings. Since November 2010, drought and periodic high temperatures associated with a La Niña weather pattern have reduced prospects for the corn and soybean crops in central Argentina. Dry fall and winter weather also affected the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop in the 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Monthly average crop prices 1/
Index values: January 2002 = 100

1/ ERS calculations based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) average monthly world price

quotes for wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice; aggregated by IMF’s fixed historical exports weights.

### 20 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 western Great Plains. Additionally, rains in Australia in late 2010-early 2011 downgraded much of the Australian wheat crop to feed quality, further reducing global supplies of food-quality wheat. Other factors contributing to the recent rise in prices include resurgent global economic growth and increasing energy prices. The run-up in crop pri ces during the last half of 2010 is expected to stimulate increased plantings and more intensive use of production inputs in 2011. Assuming average weather in major producing regions in 2011, global production and world stocks of grains and oilseeds are projected to increase. However, even with the projected increases in world crop production and stocks, world market prices are expect ed to remain well above historical levels for the next decade. Trade Projections Overview Developing countries are the main source of growth in world agricultural demand and trade. Food consumption and feed use are particularly responsive to income growth in developing countries, with movement away from staple and/or traditional foods and toward more diversified diets. Agricultural demand in developing countries is further reinforced by population growth rates that are nearly twice those of developed countries. In particular, Africa and the Middle East as a combined region is projected to have some of the strongest growth in food demand and agricultural trade over the coming decade. Both poultry imports and beef imports have their largest increases in the countries of Africa and the Middle East. With these projected gains, in 2020 the region accounts for about 45 percent of poultry imports and 20 percent of beef imports by the major importers of the world. Strong policy support for domestically produced meat also motivates growth in feed-grain imports, especially where land constraints or agroclimatic conditions limit an expansion of domestic crop production. As a result, the region accounts for about 35 percent of the projected growth in world coarse grain imports over the next 10 years. Strong import growth by Africa and the Middle East over the projection period also accounts for 58 percent of the increase in wheat imports, 35 percent of the growth in rice imports, and 27 percent of the rise in soybean oil trade.

General International Assumptions Trade projections to 2020 are founded on assumptions concerning trends in foreign area, yields, and use and on the assumption that countries comply with existing bilateral and multilateral agreements affecting agriculture and agricultural tr ade. The projections incorporate the effects of trade agreements and domestic policies in place or authorized by November 2010. International macroeconomic assumptions were completed in October 2010. Domestic agricultural and trade policies in individual foreign countries are assumed to continue to evolve along their current paths, based on the consensus judgment of USDA’s analysts. In particular, long-term economic and trade reform s in many developing countries are assumed to continue. Similarly, the development and use of technology and changes in consumer preferences are assumed to continue evolving based on past performance and analysts’ judgments regarding future developments.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 21 Mexico is projected to be another large growth market for meat imports. Large increases in Mexican meat demand provide incentives to expand livestock production as well as to import more meat. Imports of beef, pork, and poultry each rise by 50 percent or more. Agricultural prices are projected to remain above pre-2006 levels during the coming decade as a result of increasing world demand for grains, oilseeds, and livestock products; a devaluation of the U.S. dollar; continuing high energy prices; and some further growth in biofuels production. Prices for vegetable oils are projected to rise rela tive to prices for protein meals. Oilseed prices rise slightly more than grain prices, and meat prices rise relative to the costs of feedstuffs, both for protein meals and grains. World agricultural production rises in response to high prices and technology enhancements. However, a number of factors are expected to slow production growth in the future. Many countries have a limited ability to expand planted area. And, in many regions, the expansion that does occur takes place on land with lower productive capacity. The growth rate in world average crop yields has been slowing for nearly two decades, to some extent as a result of reduced research and development funding. Water constraints in some countries are impeding the expansion in irrigation. Where irrigation water is pumped from deep wells, the energy cost of pumping is projected to continue to increase. Other costs of production such as fertilizers and chemicals are also likely to increase. Traditional exporters of a wide range of agricultural commodities, such as Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union (EU), and the United States, remain important in global trade in the coming decade. But countries that are making significant investments in their agricultural sectors and increasingly pursuing policies to encourage agricultural production, including Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, are expected to have an increasing presence in export markets for basic agricultural commodities.

### 22 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Global trade in soybeans and soybean products ha s risen rapidly since the early 1990s, and has surpassed not only wheat—the traditional leader in agricultural commodity trade—but also total coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, rye, oats, millet, and mixed grains). Continued strong growth in global demand for vegetable oil and protein meal, particularly in China and other Asian countries, is expected to maintain soybean and soybean-product trade well above wheat and coarse grains trade throughout the next decade.

 In most countries, the projected growth in total harvested area of all crops rises less than a half-percent per year. Area expands more rapidly in countries with a reserve of available land and policies that enable farmers to respond to higher prices. Such countries include Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, and some other countries in South America and Eastern Europe. About two-thirds of the projected growth in global production is derived from rising yields. However, growth in crop yields has slowed during the last several decades and is projected to continue doing so.

 The market impact of slower crop yield growth is partially offset by slower growth in world population. Nonetheless, increasing population is a significant factor driving overall growth in demand for agricultural products. Additionally, rising per capita income in many countries supplements population gains in the demand for vegetable oils, meats, horticultural products, and coarse grains. World per capita use of vegetable oils is projected to rise 15 percent over the next 10 years, compared with 9 percent for meat and 5 percent for total coarse grains. Per capita use is projected to be flat for wheat and to decline nearly 2 percent for rice.

 Wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds, and other crops compete for limited cropland. Higher prices for vegetable oils, as a result of increased demand for food use, biodiesel production, and other industrial uses, are bringing previously uncropped land in Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, and Malaysia into soybean and palm oil production.

 In the coming decade, overall gains in global grain trade come from a broad range of countries, but particularly from countries in Africa and the Middle East. 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Global trade: Wheat, coarse grains, and soybeans and soybean products

Million metric tons

Soybeans and soybean products 1/

Coarse grains

1/ Soybeans and soybean meal in soybean-equivalent units. Wheat

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 23 Demand for Biofuel Feedstocks The demand for biofuel feedstocks is projected to continue growing in a number of countries, although at a slower pace than in recent years. Expansion continues to depend on policy support, mainly tax incentives and use mandates which is motivated by environmental concerns and a goal to reduce energy dependence. Six countries and regions (United States, Brazil, European Union (EU), Argentina, Canada, and China) accounted for 87 percent of world biodiesel production and 98 percent of ethanol production in 2009. Over the next 10 years, production in these countries is projected to rise 20 percent for biodiesel and nearly 25 percent for ethanol. Country Assumptions
EU. The EU is the world’s largest importer of both ethanol and biodiesel throughout the projection period. Two key pieces of legislation impacting the biofuel market are the Renewable Energy Directive and the amended Fuel Quality Directive that require by 2020 at least 10 percent of the energy used for transportation be from re newable sources and a 6-percent cut in greenhouse gas emissions by fuel suppliers. To boost biodiesel production, the EU increases its internal oilseed production and its imports of oilseeds and vegetable oil, mainly from Ukraine and Russia. Biodiesel production increases 22 percent by 2020. During the same period, ethanol production is projected to increase more than 40 percent. Internally produced wheat provides the growth for ethanol in the early years but corn used as a feedstock grows more rapidly toward the end of the projections. Ethanol’s share of total biofuel use grows from 31 percent to about 40 percent. Ethanol imports rise to nearly one-third of domestic use by 2020. Nevertheless, in 2020 only 60 percent of the EU’s mandate is achieved from annual-crop feedstocks. Brazil. Sugarcane-based ethanol production is projected to rise 45 percent during the coming decade and a growing share of ethanol production is exported in response to demand from Europe and the United States. The rate of growth in soybean-oil-based biodiesel production is faster than for sugarcane-based ethanol, although rising from a much smaller base. However, most of the biodiesel is used domestically. Canada. Ethanol production is projected to increase 17 percent, with corn imports accounting for an increasing share of the feedstock. Biodiesel production climbs 30 percent, most of it using rapeseed (canola) oil as a feedstock. Some of the rapeseed-meal byproduct is exported to the United States. Argentina. Argentina’s production of biodiesel is assumed to expand 16 percent during the projection period. Although some of the biodiesel is used to meet a mandated increase in the domestic blend rate, exports continue to rise and the country continues to be the world’s largest biodiesel exporter. Argentina’s ethanol production increases faster, but from a small base. China. About 4 million tons of corn were used to produce fuel ethanol in 2010. China has implemented policies to limit the expansion of grain-based ethanol production for transportation fuel use, and is now emphasizing the use of nongrain feedstocks such as cassava. Non-EU Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU). This region is assumed to respond to the EU’s increasing demand for biodiesel by expanding rapeseed production. In the FSU, rapeseed production more than doubles during the projections. Some of the production gains are destined for export to the EU, either as rapeseed oil or as rapeseed for crushing in the EU.

### 24 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 World coarse grain trade expands 25 million metric tons (21 percent) from 2011 to 2020. The share of global coarse grain production used as animal feed trended downward from 66 percent a decade ago to about 60 percent in 2010, and is projected to remain just below 60 percent during the coming decade. Industrial uses, such as star ch, ethanol, and malt production, are much smaller than feed use but are increasing more than twice as fast.

 Corn is the dominant feed grain traded in international markets. Corn’s share of total world coarse grain trade continues to rise slowly and averages 78 percent through the projection period. Barley has the next largest share (15 percent), followed by sorghum (5 percent). The trade share of the other coarse grains, mostly oats and rye, continues declining slowly to about 2 percent by 2020.

 Corn’s increasing share of world production and trade is attributable to yield growth that is more rapid than for other grains, to new varieties that enable it to be competitive in a wider range of climatic regions, and to its pref erred qualities for feed, biofuels, and other industrial uses.

 Commercialization of livestock feeding has been a driving force behind the growing dominance of corn in international feed grain markets. Hogs and ruminants, such as cattle and sheep, are capable of digesting a broad range of feedstuffs, making demand relatively price-sensitive across alternate feed sources. However, as global pork and poultry production becomes increasingly commercialized, higher quality feeds are used, boosting the demand for corn and soybean meal. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other 1/ Corn Barley Sorghum Global coarse grain trade

Million metric tons

1/ Rye, oats, millet, and mixed grains.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 25 Growth in coarse grain imports is strongly linked to expansion of livestock production in regions unable to meet their own feed needs. Key growth markets include North Africa and the Middle East, China, Mexico, and Southeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are large but mature markets for coarse grain imports.

 Coarse grain imports by Africa and the Middle East did not decline during the recent global economic slowdown. The region accounts for more than 34 percent of growth in world trade through 2020 as rising populations and increasing incomes sustain strong demand growth for animal products. In Egypt, Government policy has shifted toward allowing more poultry meat imports. Still, poultry production is projected to increase, boosting corn imports 14 percent to more than 6 million tons.

 Mexico’s corn imports are projected to rise from 9 million tons in 2011/12 to more than 14 million in 2020/21. Mexico’s sorghum imports increase by one-third to more than 3.7 million tons, but do not surpass the 2000 record. Altogether, the growth in Mexico’s coarse grain imports represents almost 25 percent of the increase in global coarse grain trade. This reflects increased demand for meat in Mexican diets that stimulates an expansion in meat production as well as increased meat imports.

 In East Asia (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong), environmental constraints on expanding livestock production and increasing imports of selected meat cuts contribute to very little growth in coarse grain imports.

 Southeast Asian corn imports rise nearly 1 million tons (29 percent) by 2020 as increased demand for livestock products exceeds the capacity to grow more feed grains.

 China is projected to become a net importer of 8 million tons of corn by the end of the projections as imports grow slowly while exports remain small. China’s strengthening domestic demand for corn is driven by its expanding livestock and industrial sectors. The increase in China’s imports account for one-third of the growth in world corn trade. 0 30 60 90 120 150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other

EU 1/

Africa & M. East

China & HK

Mexico

Latin America

FSU & OE 2/

East Asia Global coarse grain imports

Million metric tons

1/ Excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

### 26 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 U.S. corn exports are projected to grow over the next decade and approach record levels by 2020. However, large world supplies of feed-quality wheat compete with U.S. corn exports at the beginning of the projection period. The U.S. share of world corn trade declines slowly from an average of nearly 60 percent during the last half decade to less than 53 percent by 2020 as exports rise from the FSU, Brazil, the EU, and Argentina.

 Brazil’s corn exports have been large during the last few years as Brazil has targeted the EU’s demand for grain that has not been genetically modified (GM). However, this marketing situation has diminished as Brazil continues to expand production of GM corn varieties. Also, strong growth in demand for corn in Brazil’s livestock and poultry sectors and the profitability of growing soybeans limit the country’s production and exports of corn.

 Argentina, with a small domestic market, remains the world’s second-largest corn exporter. Due to continued quantitative controls on exports, corn area is expected to stagnate.

 In the EU, increases in area and yields enable it to increase corn production. Although more corn is allocated to ethanol production, exports more than double during the projections. The Eastern EU countries have a transportation advantage to parts of North Africa and the Middle East. Exports from other European countries are also projected to rise.

 Corn exports from the FSU, mostly Ukraine, rise more than 80 percent to 11 million tons by 2020. Favorable resource endowments, increasing economic openness, wider use of hybrid seed, and greater investment in agriculture stimulate corn production in these countries. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other
EU 1/
FSU 2/
China
Brazil Argentina
United States Global corn exports

Million metric tons

1/ Excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Former Soviet Union.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 27 Global barley trade expands 4 million tons (24 percent) during the projection period. Rising demand for both malting and feed barley underpin the increased trade.

 Feed barley imports by North African and Middle Eastern countries grow steadily over the next decade. In the mid-1990s, corn overtook barley as the principal coarse grain imported by these countries, due mainly to rising poultry production. This pattern is expected to continue through the projection period. However, the North Africa and Middle East region is expected to remain the world’s largest barley-importing area. The region is projected to account for 65 percent of the growth in world imports during the coming decade, and for 64 percent of total world imports in 2020.

 Saudi Arabia—the world’s foremost barley-importing country—accounts for over 40 percent of world barley trade through the coming decade. Saudi Arabia’s barley imports are used primarily as feed for sheep, goats, and camels.

 Iran is another Middle East country whose barley imports are projected to increase rapidly. Although the total imports by other countries in the North Africa and Middle East region are projected to grow more slowly, they still account for about a third of the increase in world barley trade.

 The international market for malting barley is boosted by strong growth in beer demand in some developing countries, most notably in China—the world’s largest malting-barley importer. China’s beer demand is rising steadily due to income and population growth. Expansion in China’s brewing capacity is being aided by foreign investment. China’s domestic malting barley production is increasing, but imports also rise during the projection period. Australia and Canada are China’s main sources of malting barley imports. 0 5 10 15 20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other

Other N. Africa & M. East

Saudi Arabia

China

FSU & OE 1/

Latin America 2/
Japan

United States Global barley imports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. 2/ Includes Mexico.

### 28 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Historically, global barley exports have originated primarily from Australia, the EU, and Canada. However, Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, Russia have emerged as important competitors in international feed-barley markets and remain so throughout the projection period.

 The FSU continues to be a major barley exporter throughout the coming decade with annual exports around 8 million tons. Ukraine became the world’s largest barley exporter in 2009 and is projected to remain so throughout the projection period. Russia’s barley exports also increased in the 2 years prior to the 2010 drought. Together, their share of world barley trade has been over 50 percent in some recent years. The drought-induced sharp drop in FSU production in 2010 reflects the variability of production and exports that can be expected in the FSU. However, assuming normal weather, exports are projected to recover over the next few years and then trend slowly upward. FSU exports are projected to rise 2.8 million tons by 2020 and to account for 70 percent of the increase in world exports.

 Australia’s barley exports are projected to rise slowly, and the country is expected to maintain its role as the world’s third-largest exporter.

 EU barley exports are projected to climb modestly during the projection period, but remain well below the levels of the late 1990s.

 Malting barley commands a substantial price premium over feed barley. This quality premium is expected to influence planting decisions in Canada and Australia. In both countries, malting barley’s share of total barley area is expected to rise during the projection period. Canada’s area planted to barley continues to decline gradually as canola remains more profitable. 0 5 10 15 20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other

FSU 1/

EU 2/

Canada

Australia Global barley exports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. 2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 29 World sorghum trade projected to trend upward from about 6.5 million tons to 7.3 million tons by 2020. Sorghum trade is driven mostly by U.S. exports to Mexico and Japan.

 Mexico’s sorghum imports are projected to increase about 1 million tons to 3.7 million tons by 2020. Many Mexican livestock producers have a slight preference for feeding sorghum, while U.S. livestock feeders increasingly prefer corn, thus facilitating U.S. sorghum shipments to Mexico. Mexico generally accounts for about half of world sorghum imports.

 Sorghum imports by Japan, the world’s second-largest importer, have trended slowly downward during the past decade. After a small rebound in the last 2 years, imports are projected to renew the downward trend. Slow growth in imports by Sub-Saharan Africa offsets declining imports by Japan.

 EU imports of sorghum are projected to be modest as it normally imports only small quantities of sorghum as part of the Spain-Portugal Accession Agreement.

 The United States is projected to remain the largest exporter of sorghum. However, during the last decade, U.S. sorghum acreage and production have declined because of lower net returns compared with corn and soybeans. As a result, exportable supplies have generally tightened. Nonetheless, U.S. sorghum exports are projected to gradually recover, but remain slightly below historical highs. The U.S. share of world sorghum trade also recovers but remains well below that of the last decade.

 Sorghum exports by Argentina, the world’s second-largest exporter, and Australia have risen sharply over the last several years. Both countries are expected to continue being prominent exporters during the coming decade although exports from both countries remain relatively flat. Argentina and Australia retain a larger share of world trade than during the previous decade. The primary sorghum markets for Argentina are Japan, Chile, and Europe. 0 2 4 6 8 10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other Sub-Saharan Africa
Mexico Japan Global sorghum imports

Million metric tons

### 30 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 World wheat trade (including flour) expands by 20 million tons (15 percent) between 2011 and 2020 to nearly 152 million tons. Growth in wheat imports is concentrated in those developing countries where income and population gains drive increases in demand. The largest growth markets include Sub-Saharan Africa, Egypt, Indonesia, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in the Africa and Middle East region.

 In many developing countries, almost no change in per capita wheat consumption is expected, but imports are projected to expand modestly because of population growth and limited potential to expand production. Rising per capita consumption of wheat in Indonesia, Vietnam, and some other Asian countries, reflects a dietary shift from rice as incomes rise. Nonetheless, overall global per capita wheat consumption is projected to decline slightly during the coming decade.

 Egypt maintains its position as the world’s largest wheat importing country, as its imports climb to more than 12 million tons. Imports by the EU, Algeria, Brazil, and Indonesia are each projected to exceed 6 million tons by 2020.

 Imports by countries in Africa and the Middle East rise 11.6 million tons and account for nearly 60 percent of the total increase in worl d wheat trade. Saudi Arabia has adopted a policy to phase out wheat production by 2016 because of water scarcity concerns, and imports are projected to rise to more than 3 million tons by 2020.

 China’s imports remain small as per capita consumption of wheat is expected to continue to decline.

 EU wheat used to produce ethanol is projected to continue rising rapidly during the first half of the projection period, especially in the United Kingdom.

 Abundant quantities of feed quality wheat in a number of countries enable wheat to compete effectively with corn for feed use in the early years of the projection period. Europe is expected to continue to account for nearly half of global wheat feeding. 0 25 50 75 100 125 150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other

Other Africa & M. East
Egypt

NAFTA

Latin America

FSU & OE 1/

EU 2/

East Asia Global wheat imports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. 2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 31 The traditional five largest wheat exporters (the United States, Australia, the EU, Argentina, and Canada) are projected to account for almost 60 percent of world trade in 2020, compared with 70 percent during the last decade. This decrease in share is mostly due to increased exports from the Black Sea area. U.S. wheat exports are projected to account for less than 16 percent of global wheat trade at the end of the projection period, down from about 22 percent in the past 5 years. Although world wheat stocks are projected to continue increasing from their 2008 low during the next several years, prices are projected to remain above their pre-2006 average levels.

 Argentina is the only traditional exporter whose market share is not projected to decline. The shares of world wheat exports are projected to increase for Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and China, as well as for Argentina.

 Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan have become significant wheat exporters in recent years. Low costs of production, new investments in agriculture production and marketing infrastructure, and generally favorable weather between 2001 and 2009 enabled their combined share of global wheat trade to rise to 36 percent in the 2 years before the 2010 drought caused exports to drop sharply. Exports from the former Soviet Union are expected to recover in the coming years and to account for about 30 percent of world exports by 2020. However, increasing wheat use for domestic feed is expected to restrain even more rapid export growth. Year-to-year volatility in production and trade, as occurred during the past year, can be expected because of the region’s highly variable weather and yields.

 EU wheat exports decline slowly over the next decade as more wheat is used for ethanol. EU exports drop to about 21 million tons in 2020, down about 18 percent from the 2008/09 peak.

 In Canada, increased global demand for vegeta ble oils (especially rapeseed oil) and for barley is expected to reduce wheat area and limit any growth in wheat exports.

 Wheat exports by the smaller exporters change little during the projection period. 0 25 50 75 100 125 150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other

FSU & OE 1/

EU 2/

Australia
Argentina

Canada

United States Global wheat exports

Million metric tons

1/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. 2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

### 32 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Global rice trade is projected to grow 2.7 percent per year from 2011 to 2020. In 2020, global rice trade reaches 41 million tons, 30 percent above the 2006 record. The main factors driving this expansion in global trade are a steady growth in demand—largely due to population growth in developing countries—and the inability of several key importers to significantly boost production. World trade as a share of world consumption, currently about 7 percent, remains substantially smaller than for other grains and oilseeds.

 Long-grain varieties account for around three-fourth s of global rice trade and are expected to account for the bulk of trade growth over the ne xt decade. Medium- and short-grain varieties account for 10-12 percent of global trade, with Northeast Asia the largest market. Aromatic rice, primarily basmati and jasmine, makes up most of the rest of global rice trade.

 The Philippines, Indonesia, the EU, and Bangladesh become the largest individual riceimporting countries by the end of the projection peri od. By 2020, each country is projected to import 1.4 million tons of rice or more. Thes e countries have limited ability to expand production and are expected to account for more than one-third of the increase in global rice imports over the next decade.

 In Africa and the Middle East, strong dema nd growth is driven by rapidly expanding population and income, while production growth is limited. In North Africa and the Middle East, production is primarily limited by climate. In Sub-Saharan Africa, expanding production is constrained by infrastructure deficiencies and resource constraints. Altogether, the entire Africa and Middle-East region accounts for more than one-third of the increase in world rice trade between 2011 and 2020. Africa accounts for most of this region’s rising imports, but Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia remain large importing countries.

 Rice imports by the Central America and Caribb ean region are projected to increase by 0.4 million tons over the next decade and to surpass 2.1 million by 2020. Population growth and rising per capita incomes boost rice consump tion and raise imports in this region.

 In the EU, Canada, and the United States, immigration is the driving force for rising per capita consumption and modest import growth. In Me xico, higher incomes contribute to higher per capita consumption and moderate gains in imports.



###  Imports by the FSU are projected to decline slig htly as a result of strong production growth and declining population that more than offs ets slowly rising per capita consumption. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other

Other Asia

Philippines

N. Africa & M. East

Sub-Saharan Africa

EU, FSU, & OE 1/

Latin America 2/ Global rice imports

Million metric tons

1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 2/ Includes Mexico.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 33 Asia continues to be the source of most of the world’s exports throughout the projection period.

 Rice exports from Thailand and Vietnam, the wo rld’s largest rice-exporting countries, account for more than 45 percent of world trade and fo r nearly 30 percent of the growth in world exports in the coming decade. Thailand’s exports increase 2.1 million tons, to more than 12 million by 2020. Rice area and yields are project ed to increase in Thailand. Vietnam’s export expansion is smaller, rising from 5.8 to 6.4 million tons. Per capita consumption declines slowly for both exporters as incomes rise.

 India has typically been the third- or fourth-l argest rice exporter since the mid-1990s, but its export levels have been volatile, primarily due to fluctuating stock levels and Government policies. India’s exports have been well below previous levels for the last several years as exports of non-basmati rice have largely been ba nned since the spike in world prices in early 2008. The export ban is assumed to be lifted once stocks are rebuilt, enabling India’s rice exports to rise to about 5.6 million tons by 2020, making it the third-largest exporter.

 Pakistan has been exporting slightly more than 3 million tons in recent years and the United States about 3.5 million tons. Both exporters ar e projected to raise their exports to around 4.3 million tons over the next decade. Pakistan ha s expanded its rice area and production in recent years although production declined in 2010 due to devastating floods. Some rehabilitation of irrigation systems will be required as a result of the 2010 floods, and in the coming decade, Pakistan’s agricultural sector will be confronted by a growing water shortage and a deteriorating infrastructure, limiting production and export gains.

 U.S. expansion in rice exports is attributable to a slight area expansion after 2012, continued yield growth, and only modest growth in domestic use.

 Rice exports from China, the sixth-largest rice-ex porting country, have declined in recent years but are projected to begin rising again and to reach 1.1 million tons by 2020, nearly double the level shipped in 2009. Little change in production or total disappearance is expected. Higher yields are projected to offset declining area as China allows the use of genetically modified rice. Reductions in per capita consumption, a re sult of continued diet diversification resulting from higher incomes, are expected to offset pop ulation growth. China also builds rice stocks during the projection period.

 Australian exports are projected to recover onl y modestly from extremely low levels shipped during much of the past decade. Exports still will be limited by competing demands for irrigation water. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other

India

China

Thailand

Vietnam

Pakistan

United States

South America Global rice exports

Million metric tons

### 34 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Economic growth and population increases in deve loping countries are projected to boost demand for vegetable oils for food consumption and for protein meals used in livestock production. Vegetable oil used for biodiesel production is also projected to increase. As demand for vegetable oils increases faster than for protein meals, vegetable oil prices ri se more rapidly than for oilseeds and protein meals, particularly for rapeseed oil compared with rapeseed meal.

 Many countries with limited opportunity to expand oilseed production, such as China and some countries in North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, have invested heavily in crushing capacity in recent years. As a result, import demand for oilseeds has grown rapidly and should continue. Global trade in soybeans is projected to increase 30 percent, soymeal by 21 percent, and soyoil by 19 percent.

 In China, increasing per capita income is projected to continue a rapid expansion of consumer demand for livestock products and vegetable oils. Feed rations are expected to include an increasing percentage of protein meal to impr ove rates of weight gain for meat-producing animals. China will mostly import oilseeds for crushing rather than large amounts of oilseed meals and oils. This changes the composition of world trade by raising global import demand for soybeans and other oilseeds rather than for oilseed products.

 Argentina, Brazil, and the United States continue to account for about 89 percent of the world’s aggregate exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil during the coming decade. In Argentina, uncertainties about grain policies cau se farmers to shift some land to soybean production. Also, some pasture land is converted to crops, especially to soybean production. This enables Argentina to increase its soybean production, and its share of world exports of soybeans and products remains above 30 percent. Brazil’s soybean area continues to increase, but an increasing share of soybean production is crushed for domestic feed and food use and its share of exports remains in the 25-31 percent range. The U.S. share of world soybean and soybean meal trade declines from 29 percent to less than 26 percent by 2020.



###  The EU is expected to expand biodiesel production using rapeseed oil as the primary feedstock. Rapeseed area increases early in the projections. Although EU imports of soybeans are projected to decline, imports of soybean meal and soybean oil increase. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Global exports: Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil
Soybeans and soybean meal, million metric tons

Soybeans

Soybean meal Soybean oil Soybean oil, million metric tons

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 35 World soybean trade is projected to rise rapidly, but at a slower pace than in recent years, climbing nearly 30 million tons (nearly 30 percent) during the next decade.

 The EU was the world’s leading importer of soybeans until 2002. However, increases in grain and rapeseed meal feeding and rising imports of soybean meal have resulted in declining soybean imports since then. These trends are projected to continue.

 China’s soybean imports have risen sharply and now account for more than 50 percent of world trade. China will face policy decisions regarding tradeoffs in producing or importingcorn and soybeans. The projections assume that Chinese policies will pursue selfsufficiency for domestic corn production and let soybean imports increase. Thus, China accounts for more than 90 percent of the projected 30-million-ton growth in global soybean imports over the next 10 years. China’s underutilized oilseed crushing capacity drives strong gains in soybean imports as China seeks to capture the value added from processing oilseeds into protein meal and vegetable oil. The use of vegetable oils for biodiesel production is assumed to have a negligible impact on China’s total vegetable oil use.

 Imports of soybeans and meal by East Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) are dominated by a continuing shift from importing feedstuffs to importing meat and other livestock products. As a result, this region’s imports of soybeans do not change much during the coming decade. Small increases in soymeal imports support slowly rising meat production.

 Mexico’s soybean imports are projected to increase by more than 20 percent during the projection period. These imports will support the production of soybean meal for the Mexican poultry and pork industries and soybean oil for domestic food consumption.

 In recent years, Argentina has imported more than a million tons of soybeans to enable its crushing plants to operate at full capacity. However, changes in Argentine policy provide disincentives to import in the future. The policy impediment to importing soybeans supports more rapid expansion in Argentine soybean area in order to supply the needs of the country’s crushers. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other China & Hong Kong
N. Africa & Middle East Latin America 1/
East Asia
EU 2/ Global soybean imports

Million metric tons

1/ Includes Mexico. 2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

### 36 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 The three leading soybean exporters—the United States, Brazil, and Argentina—have accounted for nearly 90 percent of world trade in recent years. Although exports from other countries, such as Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia increase during the projections, the share held by the traditional exports remains near 90 percent.

 With continuing area gains, Brazil strengthens its position as a leading exporter of soybeans and soybean products. Combating soybean rust disease increases production costs. However, as world oilseed prices rise relative to the price of grains, soybeans remain more profitable than other crops in most areas of Brazil. With increasing soybean plantings in the Cerrados region and expansion extending into the Legal Amazon region, the growth rate for Brazil’s soybean planted area is projected to average nearly 2.5 percent per year during the coming decade. During the next 10 years, soybean exports are projected to rise about 47 percent.

 Argentina’s export tax rates are higher for soybeans than for soybean products, which favors domestic crushing of whole seeds and exporting the products. However, in response to world demand for soybeans for crushing, Argentina’s soybean exports have risen sharply and are projected to continue doing so, rising about 30 percent to nearly 18 million tons by 2020. Most of the soybeans exported by Argentina go to China.

 Other South American countries, principally Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia, respond to higher oilseed prices by expanding the area planted to soybeans. Exports rise more than 50 percent to nearly 11 million tons.

 Canada is the next largest soybean exporter, although its export volume and growth are well below those of the above-mentioned exporters.

 Ukraine responds to higher international market prices for oilseeds by increasing production of rapeseed and soybeans. Soybean exports from Ukraine are projected to rise rapidly (32 percent), but from a small base. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other

Other South America

Brazil Argentina

United States Global soybean exports

Million metric tons

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 37 World trade in soybean meal climbs by more than 12 million tons (about 21 percent) in the projections to 2020. Continued growth in the demand for livestock products, limited capability to increase oilseed production, and relatively lower world prices for protein meals boost demand for soybean meal in a number of countries with rising middle-income populations. Lower import prices for soybean meal relative to soybeans and grains provide incentives for countries to use imported soybean meal at a higher rate in livestock feed rations.

 The EU remains the world’s largest destination for soybean meal throughout the projection period, despite increased domestic feeding of grains and rapeseed meal. Although there will be abundant supplies of low-cost rapeseed meal available for feed as a result of the EU biofuels expansion, there are technical limits on the amount of rapeseed meal that can be incorporated in livestock rations. As a result, growth in EU soybean meal imports is expected to continue to increase and to account for more than one-fourth of the increase in world soybean meal trade.

 The regions of Southeast Asia, Latin America, and North Africa and the Middle East all become larger importers of soybean meal due to increasing demand for livestock feed and low oilseed meal prices.

 Russia is projected to experience rapid growth in soybean meal imports, although from a small base. Increased livestock production, especially from larger, more modern Russian facilities, will boost the demand for soybean meal.

 Mexico’s strong growth in demand for protein feed and vegetable oils is projected to continue.

 Although the projected growth rate for China’s use of soybean meal is one of the highest inthe world, most of the meal will be supplied by domestic crush, either using domesticallyproduced or imported soybeans. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other EU 1/ Southeast Asia Latin America 2/ N. Africa & Middle East FSU & OE 3/ East Asia Global soybean meal imports

Million metric tons

1/ Excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Includes Mexico. 3/ Former Soviet Union and other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

### 38 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Argentina, Brazil, and the United States remain the three major exporters in international soybean meal markets. Together, their share of world exports rises slightly to 90 percent during the next 10 years. Argentina, the world’s largest soybean meal exporter, increases its share of the world market from less than 50 percent in recent years to about 57 percent. Trade shares held by all other major exporters decline.

 Argentina imposes higher export taxes on soybeans than on soybean products. This has provided an incentive for the country to develop a large oilseed crushing capacity. With Argentina’s low cost of soybean production and the trade policy incentives to export soy products, soybean meal exports are projected to continue their robust growth.

 In Brazil, strong growth in domestic meal consumption due to rapid expansion of the poultry and pork sectors limits increases in soybean meal exports. Also, domestic soybean crushing capacity is not expected to grow as fast due to heavy competition from Argentina. Brazil’s share of world exports declines from about 25 percent in recent years to less than 19 percent by 2020.

 U.S. soybean meal exports remain at about 8 million tons during the next 10 years. The U.S. share of world exports declines steadily from about 15 percent in most recent years to less than 12 percent by 2020.

 The volume of India’s soybean meal exports declines from more than 3.5 million tons in most recent years to 1.5 million by 2020 as rapidly increasing poultry, egg, and milk production absorbs more of India’s soybean meal supplies.

 The EU continues to be a small but steady exporter of soybean meal to Russia and other East European countries where livestock production is expected to increase significantly. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other Argentina
Brazil
United States Global soybean meal exports

Million metric tons

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 39 World soybean oil imports climb 1.8 million tons (19 percent) in the projection years, bolstered by rising food use and increased demand for use in biofuel production. China and India are the world’s two largest soybean oil importers, primarily for food use. In recent years, their combined imports have been more than a third of total world trade. The growth in soybean oil trade will be constrained by competition with palm oil, which claims the top ranking in world vegetable oil trade.

 Income and population growth in Latin America, North Africa, and the Middle East contribute to gains in soybean oil demand and imports. Although rising international prices for soybean oil will temper consumption, especially in developing countries, imports by the North Africa and the Middle East region are projected to be exceeded only by those of Latin America.

 India remains the world’s largest soybean oil importing country. Factors that contribute to continued growth in imports include burgeoning domestic demand for vegetable oils and limited capacity to expand domestic production of oilseeds. Low yields, associated with erratic rainfed growing conditions and low input use, inhibit growth of oilseed production. India sharply reduced its edible oil import tariffs to zero in 2008 in response to high world prices. It is assumed that during the next decade, the soybean oil tariff gradually rises toward the prior rate of 45 percent, but that tariffs for the other major imported oils—palm and sunflower—remain below their historical highs of 75-85 percent.

 China experiences a growing demand for vegetable oils, and land-use competition from other crops constrains the expansion in area planted to oilseed crops. However, with the rapid increase in soybean imports for crush, China is able to slowly decrease its imports of soybean oil during the coming decade. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other N. Africa & Middle East China EU, FSU, & OE 1/ India Latin America 2/ Other Asia 3/ Global soybean oil imports

Million metric tons

1/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe. 2/ Includes Mexico. 3/ Asia excluding India and China.

### 40 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Argentina’s and Brazil’s combined share of world soybean oil exports dropped from 84 percent in 2005/06 to 65 percent in 2009/10 due poor harvests. However, these countries are projected to recover partially during the next 5 years to about 75 percent of world trade.

 Argentina is the leading exporter of soybean oil, reflecting the country’s large crushing capacity, its small domestic market for soybean oil, and an export tax structure that favors exports of soybean products rather than soybeans. Gains in Argentine soybean production due to extensive double cropping, further adjustments in crop-pasture rotations, and the addition of marginal lands in the northwest part of the country, contribute to increased soybean production and crush. Argentina’s soyoil exports are projected to continue increasing even though more soybean oil is expected to be used as a feedstock for biodiesel production—with most of the biodiesel destined for export. The projected 2011-2020 growth in soybean oil exports account for 60 percent of the increase in world soyoil trade.

 Brazil’s projected increase in soybean oil exports accounts for most of the rest of global increases in soybean oil trade. Although Brazil is also projected to use more soyoil for biodiesel production, expansion of soybean production into new areas of cultivation enables it to increase its volume of soybean oil exports from its 2009/2010 reduced level. It does not however, recover to the large volumes exported between 2002 and 2007.

 The United States remains the world’s third-largest soybean oil exporter. U.S. soybean oil exports will be constrained by increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel production. U.S. canola oil imports from Canada and palm oil imports from Southeast Asia are projected to continue to grow strongly, and augment the U.S. edible oil supply.

 In the EU, exportable supplies of vegetable oils are limited by the growth in biodiesel production. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other Argentina Brazil EU 1/ United States Global soybean oil exports

Million metric tons

1/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 41 In the last 10 years, rapeseed and rapeseed oil have captured an increasing share of world oilseed production and the trade in vegetable oils produced from annual oilseed crops.

 Global demand for vegetable oils has been strong, trending up more than 5 percent a year for more than a decade. A higher oil content for rapeseed (40 percent) compared to soybeans (19 percent) and other annual oilseed crops has enhanced the demand for rapeseed over other oilseeds. Rapeseed oil has also become a major feedstock for producing biodiesel in the EU and Canada.

 Between 2000 and 2010, the growth rate in world average rapeseed yields (2.4 percent)rose more than twice as rapidly as for soybeans (0.8 percent) and in recent years worldaverage rapeseed yields have been higher than for soybeans. Faster yield growth combined with higher oil content, and more oil produced per hectare, provided economic incentives to produce more rapeseed. The rate of increase in area planted to rapeseed (3.4 percent) was higher than for soybeans (2.8 percent), and was considerably higher than the rate for all other oilseeds, and the rate for all field crops.

 The major rapeseed importers are Japan, EU, China, and Mexico. A second tier of importers includes Pakistan, the United States, Turkey, and Bangladesh. Canada is by far the largest exporter, followed by Ukraine and Australia.

 In the projections, the rate of growth in world rapeseed production continues to outpace that of soybeans, although the growth gap narrows. The projected growth rates for world rapeseed and rapeseed oil trade are also higher than the rates for soybeans and soybean oil. In Canada, rapeseed oil exports go mainly to the United States but start to slow as more oil is used for Canadian biodiesel production. Increasing exports from other countries, especially Russia and Ukraine, are assumed to partially offset slower growth in Canadian exports. 0 5 10 15 20

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Rapeseed production and rapeseed oil trade

Percent of world

Rapeseed share of world oilseed crop production1/

Rapeseed oil share of world trade of vegetable oils 1/

1/ Annual oilseed crops include soybeans and sunflower seed,

in addition to rapeseed

### 42 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 World cotton trade is projected to trend upward at 1.8 per cent a year until 2020, but does not surpass the 2005 record until half way through the projection period. There continue to be geographical shifts in mill use and trade of cotton but not as dramatic as those associated with the elimination of the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) quotas in 2005. Asia’s share of world cotton imports has risen from less than 50 percent in the late 1990s to more than 70 percent in 2010 and is projected to reach more than 83 percent by 2020.

 The textile industries in China, India, and Pakistan were the major beneficiaries of textile trade liberalization as a result of the elimination of the MFA quotas in 2005. However, imports have risen in other Asian countries as well, most notably Bangladesh and Vietnam.

 China’s textile industry and its cotton imports are expected to grow during the projection period, but more slowly than the rapid increases from 2001 to 2005 after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). Nonetheless, during the coming decade, China is projected to account for more than two-thirds of the global increase in cotton imports.

 Bangladesh has become a major importer in recent years and as imports continue rising, the country is projected to become the world’s second-largest importer by 2020.

 Pakistan has also become a significant importer in recent years but import growth slows in the projections as new Bacillus thuringiensis ( Bt ) cotton varieties specific to Pakistan’s cotton production conditions prove more productive and reduce the need for imports.

 Until several years ago, Turkey’s textile industry benefited from favorable trade access to the EU, its major market for textile and apparel exports. However, the end of the MFA quotas gave lower cost competitors more favorable access to EU markets. Turkey’s cotton imports have fallen and are projected to continue declining over the next 10 years.

 The EU, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea all reduce their cotton imports as textile trade reforms or higher wages in these countries, or both, drive textile production to countries with lower wages and other costs. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other China Latin A merica 1/ Southeast A sia 2/ South A sia 3/ EU, FSU, & OE 4/ East A sia Global cotton imports

Million bales

1/ Includes Mexico. 2/ Malaysia, Indonesia, Ph ilippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. 3/ Bangl adesh, India, and Pakistan. 4/ European Union, former Soviet Union, and other Europe.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 43 Globalization is expected to continue to move raw cotton production to countries with favorable resource endowments and technology. Traditional producers with large land bases suitable for cotton production continue to benefit from post-MFA trade patterns, including the United States, Brazil, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The importance of technology has been highlighted by the impact of India’s rapid adoption of genetically modified cotton, nearly all Bt cotton.

 The United States continues as the world’s leading cotton exporter throughout the projections. U.S. exports rise slightly to about 16 million bales by 2020. The U.S. share of world exports declines slightly from 35 percent in recent years, to 34 percent by 2020.

 Brazil’s cotton exports double during the coming decade as the area planted to cotton and soybeans expands. Exports from Brazil rise more than from any other country or region, surpassing exports from India and Australia, and enable Brazil to become the world’s second-largest cotton exporter.

 Sub-Saharan Africa’s exports are projected to rise rapidly during the coming decade as these economies develop and as Bt cotton is adopted by the region’s producers. The region’s exports are projected to rise about 60 percent during the next 10 years and to account for one third of world trade growth.

 Government policies in the Central Asian countries of the FSU promoting investment in textiles have contributed to more exports of textile products rather than exports of raw cotton. However, the continued increase in cotton exports account for 17 percent of the increase in world exports.

 Improved cotton yields in India, largely due to the adoption of Bt cotton containing the Bt gene, have raised India’s production and exports in recent years. Yield growth is projected to continue as the area planted to Bt cotton expands and cultivation practices improve. The increase in cotton output is expected to enable India to increase textile production and maintain exports. 0 10 20 30 40 50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Other

India

United States

South America

Australia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Former Soviet Union Global cotton exports

Million bales

### 44 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 The growth in world per capita meat consumption is expected to slow during the 2011-20 projection period to less than two-thirds of 1 percent per year. Still, meat shipments from major exporters trend upwards at 1.4 percent per year. The projected growth rates of exports from major exporters of beef, pork, and poultry meat are 1.7, 1.3, and 1.2 percent per year, respectively. During this period, exports rise 1.1 million tons for beef, 1.2 million for pork, and 0.9 million for poultry. Rising per capita incomes combined with population growth in a number of countries are the driving forces behind the projected growth in global meat demand.

 Russia’s net imports of meat decline slowly during the coming decade in response to the country’s policies to reduce imports and to stimulate meat production. Pork and poultry meat account for most of the decline in meat imports.

 Canadian beef exports and imports are each projected to rise slowly after 2012 with net exports remaining stable but well below the 2004 record. Canada’s cow herd contracted significantly during 2006-10 and rebuilding beef herds is expected to progress slowly.

 EU beef exports, after steadily declining for more than a decade, stabilize at the current low level as policies continue to discourage beef production and limit the EU’s competitiveness in international markets.

 Argentine beef exports declined sharply after the 2005 peak as export restrictions on beef and changes in other policies made Argentina’ s exports less competitive. Beef exports are projected to decline further during the next several years as Argentine producers begin to rebuild their herds. Beef exports then begin to rise slowly, but are constrained by reduced beef imports by Russia, which has been a major market for Argentine beef.

 The projections assume no changes in the set of countries that recognize all regions within Brazil as free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), thus limiting Brazil’s ability to compete in some markets for pork and beef. However, exports from Brazil’s expanding pork sector are expected to be competitive in price-sensitive markets such as Russia and Asian countries other than Japan and South Korea.

 During the coming decade, Brazil is expected to continue as the largest exporter of poultry products, as a result of low production costs and competitive export prices. 0 2 4 6 8 10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Meat exports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Major exporters. Beef and veal

Pork Poultry

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 45 Beef imports by major importers declined in 2009. The most significant declines occurred in South Asian countries, the United States, Russia, and Mexico. In 2010, import growth renewed in the regions of North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, but was offset by stagnant trade or continuing declines in most of the rest of the world.
Between 2011 and 2020, beef imports by major importers resume growth and expand nearly 0.7 million metric tons (14 percent). Traditionally, developed countries have been the primary importers of beef. However, imports by a number of low- and middle-income income countries are projected to increase, especially imports of lower priced, grass-fed beef from Brazil.

 During the next 10 years, Russian beef imports are projected to fluctuate around 0.9 million tons as rising consumer demand is offset by expanding Russian beef production and import restrictions. Russia remains a significant market for EU and South American beef exports.

 Imports of grain-fed beef by higher-income countries are projected to rise slowly. U.S. beef exports to these countries are projected to increase somewhat over the next 10 years although they will have to compete with exports from other suppliers.

 U.S. beef imports, primarily of grass-fed, lean beef from Australia and New Zealand for use in ground beef and processed products, rise during the projection period. Also, strong Asian imports of beef enable Australia and New Zealand to maintain significant levels of exports over the projection period.

 Strong growth in Mexican beef imports is projected to resume over the next several years. Much of Mexico’s imports consist of higher valued, grain-fed beef from the United States. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 N. A f ric a & Middle East Russia Canada & Mexico United States Eas t A sia EU 2/ Beef imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers. 2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

### 46 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Global pork trade declined in 2009 in response to the global economic recession. Imports fell the most in China, Russia, Ukraine, other countries of the FSU, Japan, and South Korea. Although world imports partially recovered in 2010, import levels for many countries remained below the 2008 peak. In the projections for 2011 to 2020, world pork imports are expected to resume growth, and to increase by more than 0.66 million tons (11 percent).

 Russia’s policies to stimulate livestock production are expected to cause pork imports to decline steadily during the next 10 years. Although Russia’s TRQ on pork imports is assumed to cease after 2012, other trade barriers may constrain growth in Russian pork imports.

 Mexican pork imports increase the most of any country in the world, rising more than 350,000 tons (52 percent) between 2011 and 2020. Increases in income and population are the primary drivers of Mexico’s increasing demand for pork. Mexico accounts for more than one-half of the growth in global pork trade during the coming decade.

 Some higher income countries in East Asia increase pork imports to satisfy demand for selected cuts of pork, especially pork bellies. Japan is by far the world’s largest pork importer, but as a mature market with declining population, its imports are not projected to rise significantly. South Korea is Asia’s fastest growing pork importer and its imports account for one-fourth of the increase in world pork imports during the projection period.

 China’s pork imports rose sharply in 2008 and it became a net importer. Since then, the country’s pork imports have declined significantly but it remains a net importer. In the projections, pork exports rise slightly more than imports, but the country remains a small net importer in 2020. Hong Kong’s pork imports are expected to continue rising during the coming decade. 0 1 2 3 4 5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 China & Hong Kong
Russia

Mexico
East Asia
United States Pork imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 47 Poultry meat imports by major importers are projected to increase by more than 1 million tons (20 percent) between 2011 and 2020. The projections indicate strong poultry import growth throughout much of the world except, most notably, for Russia, Europe, and Japan.

 Poultry imports by Africa and the Middle East now account for about 40 percent of imports by the major importers. Income and population growth boosts demand in the projections. In addition, ongoing animal disease concerns in a number of countries are expected to slow growth in production and to increase demand for imports. As a result, the region’s imports grow more than the rest of the world combined.

 Rising consumer incomes increase poultry demand and imports in Mexico and the Central America and Caribbean region. Poultry products remain less expensive than beef or pork, further stimulating demand. Mexico’s domestic poultry production continues to increase during the projection period, but rises at a slower rate than consumption, with the result that imports rise by 0.35 million tons (50 percent).

 Russia’s poultry imports are projected to declin e sharply during the next 5 years. Policies that make the poultry TRQ regime more restrictive will restrain poultry imports and stimulate domestic poultry production. Higher prices and slower growth in income and per capita poultry consumption also inhibit import growth.

 In South Korea, increasing per capita consumption, combined with environmental concerns that limit production growth, boost imports 16 percent during the next decade.

 Because of avian influenza, some major poultry-exporting countries such as Thailand and China have shifted most of their exports to fully cooked products, and are projected to continue to do so. Because of higher production costs, these cooked products will be marketed to higher income countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

 China’s rising consumption of poultry meat is met by expanding domestic production and the country’s poultry net exports climb by about 55,000 tons. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Russia Mexico Other N Afr. & M. East Saudi Arabia Sub-Saharan Africa European Union 2/ East Asia China & Hong Kong Poultry imports 1/

Million metric tons

1/ Selected importers. 2/ Excludes intra-EU trade.

### 48 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 4. Coarse grains trade long-term projections 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Importers Former Soviet Union 1 0.5 2.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 Other Europe 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 European Union 2 3.0 5.0 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 North Africa & Middle East 33.6 31.3 32.8 34.2 35.3 36.0 37.0 37.8 38.6 39.2 39.8 40.2 Sub-Saharan Africa 3 3.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 Japan 19.2 19.2 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.8 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.4 South Korea 8.5 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.6 Taiw an 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.2 China 3.8 3.1 3.4 4.2 5.0 5.8 6.8 7.6 8.7 9.5 10.5 11.1 Other Asia & Oceania 6.4 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.3 Mexico 11.2 12.0 12.2 12.9 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.2 Central America & Caribbean 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 Brazil 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 Other South America 9.9 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 Other foreign 4 5.5 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3

United States 2.6 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Total trade 118.7 118.4 119.4 122.5 125.5 127.8 131.3 134.1 137.2 139.6 142.4 144.4

Exporters European Union 2 3.0 6.0 5.6 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.6 8.8 China 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Argentina 16.9 19.7 18.3 18.8 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.1 20.1 19.9 Australia 4.6 5.1 5.0 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 Canada 3.1 3.1 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 South Africa 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 Other Europe 1.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 Former Soviet Union 1 14.9 10.5 11.7 12.6 13.0 13.3 15.0 15.6 16.7 17.8 19.0 19.8 Other foreign 16.7 14.6 14.0 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.5 16.8 16.6 16.7 16.8

United States 54.8 53.9 55.3 56.0 56.8 57.5 58.3 59.7 61.1 62.5 63.9 65.3 Percent

U.S. trade share 46.2 45.5 46.3 45.7 45.3 45.0 44.4 44.5 44.5 44.8 44.9 45.2 1/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. 2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 3/ Includes South Africa. 4/ Includes unaccounted. The projections w ere completed in November 2010. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 49 Table 5. Corn trade long-term projections 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Importers European Union 1 2.9 4.5 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 Former Soviet Union 2 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Egypt 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 Algeria 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 Morocco 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 Iran 4.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 Saudi Arabia 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 Turkey 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 Other N. Africa & Middle East 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 Japan 16.0 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.8 South Korea 8.5 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.5 Taiw an 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 China 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.2 4.1 4.9 5.8 6.6 7.5 8.0 Indonesia 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 Malaysia 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 Other Asia & Oceania 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 Canada 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 Mexico 8.4 9.1 9.2 9.9 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.8 12.3 13.0 13.6 14.3 Central America & Caribbean 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 Brazil 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Other South America 8.6 8.1 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 3 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 Other foreign 4 4.0 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

United States 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Total trade 92.6 93.2 93.0 95.2 97.4 99.3 102.3 104.8 107.5 109.4 111.6 113.2

Exporters European Union 1 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 China 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Argentina 15.0 17.5 16.0 16.5 17. 0 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.7 17.7 17.4 Brazil 9.0 7.0 6.5 7.0 7.2 7.5 8.0 8.5 8.8 8.5 8.5 8.5 South Africa 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 Other Europe 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 Former Soviet Union 2 5.5 5.6 6.1 6.4 6.6 7.1 8.3 8.5 9.2 10.0 10.8 11.1 Other foreign 6.6 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9

United States 50.5 49.5 50.8 51.4 52.1 52.7 53.3 54.6 55.9 57.2 58.4 59.7 Percent
U.S. trade share 54.5 53.2 54.6 54.1 53.5 53.1 52.1 52.1 52.0 52.3 52.3 52.7 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. 3/ Includes South Africa. 4/ Includes unaccounted. The projections w ere completed in November 2010. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

### 50 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 6. Barley trade long-term projections 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 20 13/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 20 17/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Importers
Former Soviet Union 1 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Japan 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 South Korea 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Taiw an 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 China 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 European Union 2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Latin America 3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Algeria 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Saudi Arabia 7.9 7.0 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.3 Morocco 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 Tunisia 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 South Africa 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Iran 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 Other N. Africa & M. East 2.4 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 Other foreign 4 -0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

United States 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total trade 17.1 16.3 17.0 18.0 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.8 21.0

Exporters European Union 2 1.1 4.6 3.9 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 Australia 3.8 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 Canada 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 Russia 2.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 Ukraine 6.2 4.0 4.2 4.7 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7
Other Former Soviet Union 5 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Turkey 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 Other foreign 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

United States 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Percent

U.S. trade share 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. 2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 3/ Includes Mexico. 4/ Includes unaccounted. 5/ Covers FSU-12 except Russia and Ukraine, includes intra-FSU trade. The projections w ere completed in November 2010. Exports, million metric tons Imports, million metric tons

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 51 Table 7. Sorghum trade long-term projections 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/ 16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Importers Japan 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 Mexico 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 North Africa & Middle East 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 South America 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Sub-Saharan Africa 1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 Other 2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6

Total trade 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.3
Exporters Argentina 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Australia 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 Brazil 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other foreign 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

United States 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 Percent U.S. trade share 64.9 63.2 65.2 66.9 67.5 68.3 69.5 70.9 72.1 72.3 72.7 72.9
1/ Includes South Africa. 2/ EU-27 and the rest of the w orld. E xcludes intra-EU trade. Includes unaccounted. The projections w ere completed in November 2010. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

### 52 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 8. Wheat trade long-term projections 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Importers Algeria 5.2 5.3 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 Tunisia 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 Morocco 2.3 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 Egypt 10.3 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 Saudi Arabia 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Iran 5.0 0.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Iraq 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Other N. Africa & Middle East 15.2 13.1 13.7 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 1 15.8 14.3 14.4 15.0 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.0 Mexico 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 Central America & Caribbean 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Brazil 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 Other South America 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 European Union 2 5.5 5.5 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 Other Europe 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 Former Soviet Union 3 5.4 7.4 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2 Japan 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 South Korea 4.5 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Philippines 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 Indonesia 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.9 China 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 Bangladesh 3.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Malaysia 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 Thailand 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 Vietnam 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 Pakistan 0.2 0.3 2.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Other Asia & Oceania 7.7 7.2 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 Other foreign 4 2.2 3.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

United States 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5

Total trade 135.3 127.2 132.1 132.8 135.8 138.0 140.1 142.5 144.6 147.1 149.4 151.9

Exporters European Union 2 22.1 22.0 21.2 20.5 20.4 20.1 20.0 20.4 20.2 20.1 19.9 20.8 Canada 19.0 17.5 17.9 17.2 16.3 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.3 Australia 14.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.8 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 Argentina 5.5 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 Russia 18.6 4.0 7.0 10.8 14.0 16.0 17.5 18.8 20.0 21.2 22.5 23.5 Ukraine 9.3 6.0 8.5 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 Other Former Soviet Union 5 8.8 6.7 8.0 8.2 8.5 8.7 9.1 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.6 12.2 Other Europe 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 India 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 3.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 China 0.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 Turkey 4.4 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 Other foreign 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2

United States 24.0 34.0 31.3 27.2 2 4.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 23.8
Percent
U.S. trade share 17.7 26.7 23.7 20.5 1 8.0 17.8 17.5 17.2 16.9 16.7 16.4 15.7 1/ Includes South Africa. 2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 3/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. 4/ Includes unaccounted w hich can be negative. 5/ Covers FSU-12 except Russia a nd Ukraine, includes intra-FSU trade. The projections w ere completed in November 2010. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 53 Table 9. Rice trade long-term projections 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Importers Canada 0.36 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.39 Mexico 0.60 0.65 0.69 0.71 0.74 0.77 0.79 0.82 0.84 0.87 0.89 0.92 Central America/Caribbean 1.44 1.48 1.69 1.82 1.87 1.91 1.94 1.96 2.01 2.03 2.09 2.13 Brazil 0.90 0.65 0.94 0.87 0.84 0.88 0.82 0.72 0.61 0.60 0.61 0.61 Other South America 0.46 0.73 0.56 0.53 0.43 0.37 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 European Union 1 1.24 1.35 1.29 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.39 1.41 1.43 1.45 1.47 1.49 Former Soviet Union 2 0.37 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.32 Other Europe 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 Bangladesh 0.09 0.75 0.82 0.89 0.99 1.04 1.12 1.18 1.25 1.32 1.39 1.45 China 0.30 0.33 0.37 0.40 0.43 0.45 0.49 0.52 0.54 0.57 0.60 0.62 Japan 0.70 0.70 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 South Korea 0.30 0.33 0.35 0.39 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 Indonesia 0.80 0.65 0.80 0.93 1.05 1.11 1.17 1.25 1.34 1.43 1.51 1.57 Malaysia 1.07 1.02 1.01 1.09 1.17 1.24 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.34 1.36 1.37 Philippines 2.20 2.00 2.50 2.70 3.00 3.30 3.50 3.70 3.85 3.97 4.08 4.22 Other Asia & Oceania 2.37 2.46 2.55 2.70 2.81 2.90 3.02 3.13 3.26 3.41 3.55 3.70 Iraq 1.10 1.15 1.17 1.20 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.32 1.34 1.36 1.37 Iran 1.15 1.20 1.24 1.32 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.36 Saudi Arabia 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.21 1.23 1.26 1.29 1.32 Other N. Africa & M. East 2.54 2.46 2.50 2.46 2.57 2.68 2.76 2.83 2.91 3.00 3.09 3.17
Sub-Saharan Africa 3 6.90 7.41 7.75 8.19 8.38 8.55 8.73 8.91 9.08 9.25 9.42 9.59 South Africa 0.80 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.02 Other foreign 4 2.02 1.75 1.80 1.81 1.81 1.84 1.90 1.96 2.00 2.03 2.03 2.04

United States 0.60 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.80

Total imports 29.54 30.47 32.20 33.54 34.66 35.72 36.60 37.47 38.33 39.22 40.12 41.00

Exporters Australia 0.04 0.33 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 Argentina 0.55 0.70 0.66 0.61 0.61 0.63 0.66 0.69 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 Other South America 1.57 1.95 1.64 1.69 1.74 1.79 1.82 1.91 2.00 2.15 2.30 2.46 European Union 1 0.23 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 China 0.60 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.95 0.99 0.97 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.07 India 2.20 2.50 3.64 4.62 5.07 5.42 5.58 5.65 5.55 5.56 5.55 5.59 Pakistan 3.80 2.65 2.75 3.09 3.20 3.31 3.46 3.63 3.80 3.98 4.18 4.38 Thailand 8.50 9.70 10.37 10.43 10.69 10.83 11.13 11.36 11.80 12.03 12.30 12.43 Vietnam 6.20 5.80 5.80 5.60 5.62 5.71 5.77 5.86 5.94 6.09 6.23 6.40 Egypt 0.70 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.23 0.21 0.20 0.18 0.17 0.15 0.14 Other foreign 1.69 1.83 2.02 2.18 2.34 2.55 2.66 2.77 2.88 2.99 3.10 3.21

United States 3.47 3.64 3.79 3.82 3.88 3.94 4.01 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.18 4.21

Total exports 29.54 30.47 32.20 33.54 34.66 35.72 36.60 37.47 38.33 39.22 40.12 41.00
Percent
U.S. trade share 11.7 12.0 11.8 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.3 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. 3/ Excludes South Africa 4/ Includes unaccounted. The projections w ere completed in November 2010. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

### 54 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 10. Soybean trade long-term projections 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Importers European Union 1 12.9 13.5 13.5 13.1 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.5 Japan 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 South Korea 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Taiw an 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Mexico 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Former Soviet Union 2 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 Other Europe 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 China 50.3 57.0 60.7 64.0 66.9 70.1 73.2 76.4 79.4 82.4 85.4 88.3 Malaysia 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Indonesia 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 Other 15.2 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.3

Total imports 92.7 97.2 101.4 104.5 107 .8 111.3 114.7 118.3 121 .6 124.9 128.3 131.5

Exporters Argentina 13.0 13.0 13.7 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.5 17.9 Brazil 28.6 31.4 33.6 34.5 36.2 37.9 40.0 41.9 43.9 45.9 48.0 49.5 Other South America 7.3 6.4 7.2 7.4 7.8 8.0 8.5 8.9 9.4 9.9 10.5 11.1 China 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Other foreign 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4

United States 40.9 42.7 42.9 43.7 44.5 45.4 45.9 46.4 46.7 47.1 47.5 48.0

Total exports 92.7 97.2 101.4 104.5 107 .8 111.3 114.7 118.3 121 .6 124.9 128.3 131.5 Percent U.S. trade share 44.1 44.0 42.3 41.8 41.3 40.8 40.0 39.2 38.4 37.7 37.0 36.5 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. The projections w ere completed in November 2010. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 55 Table 12

. S oybean oil trade long-term projections 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Importers China 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 India 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 Other Asia 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 Latin America 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 North Africa & Middle East 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 European Union 1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 Other 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Total imports 9.1 9.5 9.3 9.3 9 .5 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1

Exporters Argentina 4.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.4 Brazil 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 European Union 1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Other foreign 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7

United States 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8

Total exports 9.1 9.5 9.3 9.3 9 .5 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1
Percent
U.S. trade share 16.9 13.0 9.5 7.4 6.2 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. The projections w ere completed in November 2010. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons Table 11. Soybean meal trade long-term projections 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Importers European Union 1 21.8 23.3 23.6 24.0 24.4 24.8 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.7 27.1 Former Soviet Union 2 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Other Europe 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Canada 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 Japan 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 Southeast Asia 9.6 10.2 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.4 Mexico 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 Other Latin America 5.6 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 North Africa & Middle East 5.8 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.2 Other 4.6 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7

Total imports 53.1 56.8 57.8 59.3 60.6 62.0 63.4 64.8 66.1 67.5 68.8 70.1

Exporters Argentina 24.7 29.6 29.5 30.5 31.4 32.7 33.8 34.9 36.2 37.5 38.7 40.0 Brazil 13.0 12.8 12.6 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.3 Other South America 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 China 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 India 3.0 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.5 European Union 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Other foreign 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7

United States 10.1 8.3 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2

Total exports 55.2 58.5 57.7 59.3 60.6 62.0 63.4 64.8 66.1 67.5 68.8 70.1
Percent U.S. trade share 18.3 14.1 13.5 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.5 12.6 12.3 12.1 11.9 11.6 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. The projections w ere completed in November 2010. Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

### 56 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 13. Rapeseed trade long-term projections 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Importers European Union 1 2.2 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 Japan 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Mexico 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 China 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 Bangladesh 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Pakistan 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Other foreign 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2

United States 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0

Total imports 10.9 9.7 10.2 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.1

Exporters Canada 7.2 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.6 Russia 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 Ukraine 1.8 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 Other Former Soviet Union 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Australia 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Other foreign 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3

United States 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4

Total exports 10.9 9.7 10.2 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.1
Percent
U.S. trade share 1.9 3.3 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 Imports, million metric tons

Exports, million metric tons

1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. The projections w ere completed in November 2010.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 57 Table 14. All cotton trade long-term projections 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Importers European Union 1 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Former Soviet Union 2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 Brazil 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Mexico 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Japan 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 South Korea 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 China 10.9 15.0 16.5 17.6 18.8 1 9.6 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.5 Indonesia 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Thailand 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.0 Pakistan 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 India 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Bangladesh 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.9 Taiw an 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 Other Asia & Oceania 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 Turkey 4.4 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 Other 2.4 2.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.3

Total imports 35.6 38.8 40.6 41.8 43.3 44.4 45.2 45.9 46.4 46.9 47.4 47.9

Exporters Former Soviet Union 2 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 Australia 2.1 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 Argentina 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Brazil 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 Other Latin America 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 Pakistan 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 India 6.6 4.8 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.0 Egypt 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 3 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4 Other foreign 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

United States 12.0 15.8 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.2

Total exports 35.6 38.8 40.6 41.8 43.3 44.4 45.2 45.9 46.4 46.9 47.4 47.9
Percent U.S. trade share 33.8 40.5 38.3 37.2 36.0 35.1 34.7 34.4 34.3 34.1 34.0 33.9 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. 2/ Covers FSU-12, includes intra-FSU trade. 3/ Includes South Africa. The projections w ere completed in November 2010. Imports, million bales

Exports, million bales

### 58 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 16. Pork trade long-term projections 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Importers Japan 1,138 1,150 1,157 1,182 1,189 1,190 1,189 1,185 1,186 1,189 1,190 1,190 China 270 350 370 373 387 397 407 418 434 443 452 457 Hong Kong 369 370 380 392 398 405 414 422 430 439 447 456 South Korea 390 380 410 412 427 438 451 463 477 493 505 520 Russia 845 850 850 848 847 837 803 756 709 652 588 516 Mexico 678 685 690 724 772 803 837 881 919 960 1,002 1,047 Canada 180 200 230 232 234 235 236 237 238 238 238 238

United States 378 394 406 413 422 433 445 456 467 479 490 501

Major importers 4,248 4,379 4,493 4,574 4,675 4,738 4,781 4,817 4,860 4,894 4,911 4,924

Exporters Brazil 707 625 631 639 663 667 669 676 684 693 702 710 Canada 1,123 1,165 1,167 1,112 1,136 1,158 1,171 1,186 1,199 1,208 1,213 1,211 Mexico 70 80 85 86 87 88 90 91 91 92 93 94 European Union 1 1,415 1,700 1,550 1,563 1,584 1,594 1,598 1,583 1,583 1,569 1,555 1,535 China 232 250 280 309 329 342 355 370 380 392 405 419

United States 1,857 1,981 2,121 2,170 2,215 2,268 2,325 2,370 2,409 2,448 2,488 2,530

Major exporters 5,404 5,801 5,834 5,880 6,014 6,118 6,207 6,275 6,346 6,402 6,455 6,499 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. The projections w ere completed in November 2010. Imports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

Exports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight Table 15. Beef trade long-term projections 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Importers Japan 697 695 704 679 662 673 675 682 691 707 713 724 South Korea 315 345 350 360 370 375 380 388 391 394 397 400 Taiw an 112 135 140 141 142 144 146 147 148 148 149 149 Philippines 123 150 160 166 171 180 187 192 197 201 209 215 European Union 1 497 490 490 488 485 483 480 478 476 473 471 468 Russia 895 940 950 955 924 881 875 877 887 904 918 929 Other Europe 63 65 69 68 69 70 71 71 72 72 73 73 Egypt 180 190 210 217 221 226 229 231 233 235 238 240 Other N. Africa & M. East 690 846 878 874 898 922 948 973 996 1,016 1,036 1,057 Mexico 322 335 330 357 403 439 462 476 491 499 512 533 Canada 247 235 245 247 249 251 253 255 257 259 261 263

United States 1,191 1,119 1,152 1,252 1,270 1,300 1,329 1,359 1,388 1,417 1,447 1,476

Major importers 5,332 5,545 5,678 5, 803 5,863 5,942 6,034 6,127 6,226 6,325 6,423 6,528

Exporters Australia 1,364 1,325 1,325 1,329 1, 323 1,330 1,336 1,343 1,350 1,357 1,362 1,369 New Zealand 514 510 496 500 499 505 511 514 516 520 523 527 Other Asia 666 762 784 800 810 819 840 857 883 901 920 938 European Union 1 148 160 160 159 161 160 156 158 161 163 166 166 Argentina 655 300 300 233 208 207 234 266 302 350 404 460 Brazil 1,596 1,675 1,810 1,846 1,903 1,934 1,960 1,986 2,013 2,038 2,064 2,090 Canada 480 525 530 512 499 508 524 535 542 547 548 553

United States 878 1,049 1,030 1,089 1,181 1,231 1,263 1,287 1,312 1,338 1,364 1,392

Major exporters 6,301 6,306 6,435 6,467 6,583 6,695 6,824 6,946 7,079 7,213 7,352 7,494 1/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. The projections w ere completed in November 2010. Imports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

Exports, thousand metric tons, carcass weight

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 59 Table 17. Poultry trade long-term projections 1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Importers Russia 954 500 610 543 300 200 187 176 166 157 149 143 European Union 2 831 795 825 833 842 850 859 867 876 885 893 902 Other Europe 29 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 25 Canada 138 133 138 140 141 143 145 147 148 150 152 154 Mexico 636 670 700 740 785 810 845 880 915 960 1,005 1,050 Central America/Caribbean 289 308 320 340 365 390 405 420 435 455 475 498 Japan 645 745 760 735 742 746 743 747 747 746 745 743 Hong Kong 253 280 325 344 357 366 375 385 390 396 401 407 China 428 351 325 305 308 316 323 333 344 352 363 376 South Korea 71 90 90 88 88 90 90 92 94 97 101 104 Saudi Arabia 604 630 680 701 727 751 771 792 810 830 847 866 Other N. Africa & M. East 1,234 1,198 1, 266 1,277 1,329 1,383 1,437 1,483 1,536 1,586 1,640 1,692 Sub-Saharan Africa 703 780 782 798 814 831 848 865 883 901 920 939

Major importers 6,815 6,505 6,847 6,869 6,824 6,902 7,053 7,211 7,370 7,539 7,716 7,897

Exporters European Union 2 889 950 945 925 931 935 935 927 922 917 914 908 Brazil 3,386 3,514 3,567 3,570 3,43 1 3,454 3,539 3,621 3,742 3,862 3,998 4,116 China 291 380 410 476 480 482 495 497 503 506 512 516 Thailand 379 410 440 484 497 503 512 525 541 555 567 579

United States 3,335 3,182 3,265 3,087 3,139 3,176 3,225 3,263 3,285 3,309 3,344 3,387

Major exporters 8,280 8,436 8,627 8,541 8,478 8,549 8,706 8,833 8,993 9,150 9,335 9,506 1/ Broilers and turkeys only. 2/ Covers EU-27, excludes intra-EU trade. The projections w ere completed in November 2010. Imports, thousand metric tons, ready to cook

Exports, thousand metric tons, ready to cook

### 60 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 

## U.S. Crops

Near-term adjustments in the U.S. crops sector reflect market responses to relatively high prices that have resulted from the 2010 global wheat production shortfall (largely in Russia), reduced U.S. corn yields, and strong global demand for soybeans and cotton. Over the longer run, global economic recovery with steady growth provides an improved foundation for crop demand. Despite some growth potential from the E15 (15-percent ethanol blend) market, increases in corn-based ethanol production in the United States are projected to slow. Nonetheless, the large expansion in recent years keeps corn use for ethanol high. In combination, these factors support longer run increases in global consumption and trade. Prices fall from current high levels, but remain at historically high levels for many crops.
Projections for field crops reflect provisions of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (2008 Farm Act), which are assumed to continue through the projection period. Acreage enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has fallen from more than 36 million acres to about 31.4 million acres and is projected to remain close to 32 million acres throughout the projections. This reduction in CRP acreage provides some additional cropland for potential use in production.
The 45-cents-per-gallon tax credit available to blenders of ethanol and the 54-cents-per-gallon tariff on imported fuel ethanol are assumed to remain in effect through the end of the projection period. The tax credit for blending biodiesel that had expired at the end of 2009 was not assumed to be available because its reinstatement occurred after the projections were completed.
Current high prices lead to an increase in planted cropland in 2011, reaching 255 million acres for the 8 major field crops, up from 245 million in 2010 and above the recent high of 253 million in 2008. Although prices and plantings decline over the next several years, strong demand continues to keep prices historically high, providing economic incentives to hold projected plantings at 249- 250 million acres over the remainder of the projection period.

225 250 275 300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. planted area: Eight major crops 1/

Million acres

1/ The eight major crops are corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice, upland cotton, and soybeans.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 61 Continuing high levels of domestic corn-based ethanol production and gains in exports keep corn demand high. Strong producer returns keep corn acreage in a range of 90 to 92 million acres over the projection period compared to 88 million in 2010. Acreage changes for other feed grains are minimal.

 Most ethanol production in the United States currently uses corn as the feedstock, with about 36 percent of total corn use expected to go to ethanol production over the projection period. Even with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) October 2010 announced approval for use of E15 in model year 2007 and newer passenger vehicles (including cars, sport utility vehicles, and light pickup trucks), smaller gains for corn-based ethanol are projected over the next 10 years than have occurred in recent years. This result reflects only moderate growth in overall gasoline consumption in the United States, limited potential for further market penetration of ethanol into the E10 (10-percent ethanol blend) market, constraints in the E15 market, and the small size of the E85 (85-percent ethanol blend) market. By the end of the projection period, corn-based ethanol production represents more than 10 percent of annual gasoline consumption.

 Feed and residual use of corn bottoms out in the initial years due to reduced meat production and increased feeding of distillers grains, a coproduct of dry mill ethanol production. Feed use rises through the rest of the projections as meat production picks up and growth in the availability of distillers grains slows with the reduced pace of corn-based ethanol expansion.

 Food and industrial use of corn (other than for ethanol production) is projected to rise over the next decade. Use of corn for high fructose corn syrup, glucose, and dextrose increases at less than half the rate of population gain, limited by consumer dietary concerns and other changes in tastes and preferences. Other food uses of corn are also projected to rise more slowly than the increase in population. Starch use of corn responds to industrial demand, rebounding as the U.S. economy recovers and rising faster than population throughout the projection period.

 U.S. corn exports rise in response to stronger global demand for feed grains to support growth in meat production. Although lower than has been typical in the past, the U.S. share of global corn trade remains above 50 percent in the projections. 0 2 4 6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. corn: Feed and residual use, ethanol, and exports

Billion bushels

Feed and residual use

Exports Ethanol

### 62 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Strong wheat prices and expected net returns boost wheat plantings for 2011. However, with relatively weak overall demand growth for wheat and continuing large stocks, producer returns fall in subsequent years, leading to a decline in wheat plantings to about 51 million acres by the end of the projection period.

 Domestic demand for wheat reflects a relatively mature market. Food use of wheat is projected to show moderate gains, generally in line with U.S. population increases.

 Feed use of wheat, a lower value market for the crop, increases moderately into 2011/12 reflecting favorable prices relative to corn in the summer. For later years, wheat feed use levels off at 175 million bushels per year as prices relative to corn allow some competition of feed wheat with feed grains.

 U.S. wheat exports are boosted in the near term due to relatively tight market conditions following the 2010 production shortfall in Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union. In the longer run, U.S. wheat exports fall back to 900 million bushels annually and remain flat over the projection period. U.S. wheat trade is limited in early years by large exports from India to reduce their high stocks and later by renewed competition primarily from the Black Sea region. Notably, India’s wheat exports reach as high as 3 million metric tons (a 2.2-percent share of global wheat trade) in 2013/14 before dropping off to negligible levels toward the end of the projections. Russia’s wheat exports rebound from the drought-reduced low levels of 2010/11, rising to account for 15 percent of global trade by the end of the decade. The EU market share declines from 17 percent in 2010/11 to 14 percent in 2020/21. For the same time period, the U.S. market share declines from 27 percent to 16 percent. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. wheat: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 63 U.S. soybean plantings rise over the projection period as growth in both domestic and export demand keep prices and producer returns favorable.

 Reductions in U.S. livestock production and increased availability of distillers grains have lowered demand for soybean meal for livestock feed in recent years, thereby reducing domestic soybean crush. However, as meat production gains resume, soybean crush will follow.

 Strong global demand for soybeans, particularly in China, supports increases in U.S. soybean exports. Despite rapid import growth, continued competition from South America, particularly Brazil, leads to a reduction in the U.S. share of global soybean trade from 44 percent in 2009/10 to about 37 percent toward the end of the projection period.

 Strengthening competition from Argentina and Brazil, combined with increasing use for the growing U.S. livestock sector, limit U.S. soybean meal exports in the projections. The U.S. export share in global soybean meal trade would decline from 14 percent in 2010/11 to below 12 percent by 2020/21. U.S. soybean oil exports similarly face increasing competition from South America. Argentina, in particular, is a competitive exporter of soybean oil because its graduated export taxes favor exports of soybean products over soybeans.

 Soybean oil used to produce methyl esters (biodiesel) grows to 3.6 billion pounds by the end of the projection period, representing about 17 percent of total use of soybean oil and supporting the production of close to 500 million gallons of biodiesel. Although some other first-use vegetable oils are also used to produce biodiesel, most of the remaining biodiesel production needed to reach the 1-billion-gallon use mandate of the 2007 Energy Act uses animal fats or recycled vegetable oil as the feedstock. Exports of biodiesel will continue to be constrained by the EU’s anti-dumping and countervailing duties on U.S. shipments. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. soybeans: Domestic use and exports

Billion bushels

Domestic use

Exports

### 64 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 A number of short-term factors have led to high prices for grains and oilseeds in 2010/11, including reduced global wheat production (especially in Russia), a decline in U.S. corn yields, and strong global demand for soybeans. Although market responses to these prices are projected to reduce prices over the next several years, U.S. prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans are projected to remain historically high. The continuing influence of several factors, including global economic growth, a depreciating dollar, escalating costs for crude petroleum, and rising biofuel production, underlie these crop price projections over the long term.

 Although corn prices fall from their current high levels, they are projected to remain historically high due to continued demand for corn for ethanol production as well as growth in feed use and exports.

 Strengthening demand for soybeans and soybean products holds soybean prices high throughout the projections.

 Wheat prices decline from 2011/12 to 2015/16 and then are projected to rise moderately over the rest of the decade. Despite gains in wheat yields, declining acreage and increasing demand gradually reduce stocks. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. farm-level prices: Corn, wheat, and soybeans
Dollars per bushel

Corn Wheat

Soybeans

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 65 U.S. planted area to rice is projected to fall over the next couple of years from 2010’s near-record in response to declining expected producer returns and increased competition for land from other crops. Plantings then increase marginally after 2012 as producer returns improve. Continued expansion in U.S. food use of rice is projected over the next decade. U.S. rice exports increase as well, but somewhat slower than overall growth in global rice trade.

 Domestic use of rice is projected to grow slightly faster than population growth. Imports of aromatic varieties of rice from Asia account for a growing share of domestic use in the projections.

 U.S. rice exports are projected to increase, reflecting a lower U.S. price difference over Asian competitors’ price than in recent years. Nonetheless, export growth falls short of the pace of overall rice trade gains, so the U.S. market share declines. Rough rice exports to Latin America are expected to continue increasing, and account for most of the U.S. export expansion.

 Stocks of rice fall from initially large levels, reducing the stocks-to-use ratio to a more sustainable level of about 13 percent by the end of the projection period.

 Global rice prices have fallen from the highs of 2008/09 and are expected to continue dropping through 2013/14. Global prices then increase about 2 percent per year, reaching nearly $12 per hundredweight (rough basis) at the end of the projection period. These price increases largely reflect tightening global stocks of rice, which is due to slow yield growth and limited ability to expand area in most producing countries. This effect is partially offset by declining global per capita disappearance of rice, caused largely by dietary shifts away from staple foods in Asia as incomes rise.

 U.S. rice prices follow a pattern similar to global prices, continuing their fall from the record high in 2008/09 for the next couple of years, before rising in the latter years of the projections. By the end of the projection period, U.S. rice prices are approaching $14 per hundredweight. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. rice: Domestic and residual use and exports
Million hundredweight

Domestic and residual use

Exports

### 66 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 High cotton prices lead to a large increase in cotton plantings in 2011, but plantings subsequently decline moderately as lower prices reduce returns. U.S. mill use of upland cotton continues to decline throughout the projections while cotton exports rise.

 The decline in mill use of cotton is projected to continue over the next decade. At the end of the projection period, domestic mill use is projected to represent less than 16 percent of total use. Underlying this projection is an increase in apparel imports by the United States over the next 10 years, reducing domestic apparel production and lowering the apparel industry’s demand for fabric and yarn produced in the United States.

 U.S. upland cotton exports rebounded in 2010/11 in response to strong global trade demand and facilitated by increased U.S. cotton plantings and production, boosting the U.S. trade share to over 40 percent. After falling back slightly during the first half of the projection period, continued strong global demand leads to moderate gains in U.S. cotton exports through the rest of the decade. Nonetheless, export gains are slower than global trade increases, so the U.S. share of world cotton trade falls to about 34 percent by 2020/21. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. upland cotton: Domestic mill use and exports

Million bales

Domestic mill use Exports

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 67 The two primary determinants of U.S. sugar supply and use over the long-term projection period are the implementation of the sugar and en ergy provisions of the 2008 Farm Act and reliance on sugar imports from Mexico to maintain balance in the U.S. sugar market. The projec tions assume that sugar tariff-rate quotas are not increased above initial levels and that U.S. policymakers aim for an ending year stocks-touse ratio of 13.5 percent. Mexico is assumed to export sugar to the Un ited States to meet this level.

 Sugar provisions of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) removed all duties and quantitative restrictions on sweetener trade between Mexico and the United States as of January 1, 2008. Mexican exportable sugar supplies are expected to rise as a result of increased use of high fructose corn syrup (mostly imported from the Unit ed States) that displaces sugar in beverage and food manufacturing end uses in Mexico. As a c onsequence, Mexico’s sugar exports to the higherpriced U.S. market grow over the decade and repres ent more than 15 percent of U.S. supplies at the end of the projection period, up from about 8 perc ent in 2010/11. The projections assume that Mexico will import sugar from the lower-priced worl d market when necessary to assure sufficient supplies to meet their domestic consumption requirements.

 Projected growth in U.S. beet and cane sugar produ ction is low over the next decade. Beet sugar production averages 4.715 million short tons, raw va lue (STRV) over 2011/12 to 2020/21 and cane sugar production averages 3.567 million STRV. As a result, sugar production averages only 72 percent of domestic consumption, far belo w the 85-percent minimum allotment level.

 Deliveries of sugar for human use rebound in 2012/13 from the small changes in the prior 2 years. Gains over the remainder of the projections av erage 0.8 percent per year, slightly less than population growth.

 There are no sugar loan forfeitures in the project ions nor any CCC purchases of sugar for ethanol for use in the Feedstock Flexibility Program. With an annual stoc ks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent, raw cane and refined beet sugar prices are abov e the minimum prices to avoid forfeiture for the entire projection period. Sugar refining capacity is sufficient to keep refined sugar prices from rising. The long term equilibrium world raw suga r price is assumed to equal 16 cents per pound— historically high, but not high enough to exert upward pressure on U.S. raw and refined sugar prices. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Cr op year U.S. sugar: Domestic production, use, and imports

Million short tons

Domestic use

Imports Production

### 68 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Farm sales of horticultural crops are projected to grow by 1.5 percent annually over the next decade, reaching $67.4 billion in calendar year 2020, up from $58 billion in 2010.

 Vegetables and melons, which rank first in farm sa les value at 38 percent of the total, are projected to grow at 1.7 percent annually. Fruits and tree nu ts are expected to increase slightly faster at 1.8 percent per year, while greenhouse and nursery crops grow at 0.8 percent.

 The volume of farm production of horticultural crop s is forecast to rise by 0.7 percent annually. Vegetables and melons lead production growth at 0.8 percent, reaching 150 billion pounds in 2020. Fruit and nut production expands by 0.6 percen t per year to 66 billion pounds in 2020.

 Producer prices for vegetables are expected to rise at 0.9 percent per year. Producer prices for fruits rise by 1.3 percent per year due to somewhat slower production growth than vegetables.

 U.S. per capita use of fruits and tree nuts is fo recast to increase from 267 pounds in 2010 to 279 pounds by 2020, an annual change of 0.4 percent. Per capita use of vegetables is anticipated to grow from 425 pounds in 2010 to 436 in 2020, up an average of 0.3 percent per year. The total supply of fruits and vegetables ov er the next decade, both domestic and imported, is projected to grow at an average rate of 1.2 percent per year.

 U.S. horticultural import value is projected to increa se by 4.8 percent annually over the next decade after increasing by 8 percent on average in the pa st decade. Imports of fre sh fruits and vegetables will largely drive this growth. The import value of ve getables is expected to expand faster than for fruits and nuts due to relatively great er import demand for vegetables.

 The U.S. trade deficit in horticultural crops and pr oducts expands from $13 billion in fiscal year 2010 to $22.6 billion in 2020. Of the $34 billion total U.S. export s of horticultural products in 2020, fruits and nuts contribute $15. 9 billion and vegetables account for $7.1 billion. Total imports of about $56.9 billion in 2020 in clude $18.3 billion worth of frui ts and nuts, and $14.6 billion of fresh and processed vegetables.

 Imports increasingly supplement the domestic supply of horticultural crops and products. In terms of farm weight, imports of fruits and nuts will account for 45 perc ent of domestic use by 2020, up from 42 percent in 2010. Imported vegetables are pr ojected to represent 24 percent of domestic use in 2020, an increase from 20 percent in 2010.

 The export market also becomes increasingly impor tant for U.S. horticulture products, although relative gains are smaller than for imports. Export s represent more than a quarter of fruits and nuts production in 2020 while about 16 percent of vegetable production will be sold abroad, each up about 1 percentage point from 2010. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Value of U.S. horticultural trade

Billion dollars

Imports

Exports

Fiscal year

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 69 Table 18. Acreage for major field crops and Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) assumptions, long-term projections 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million acres Planted acreage, eight major crops

Corn 86.5 88.2 92.0 91.5 91.0 90.5 90.5 90.5 91.0 91.5 92.0 92.0 Sorghum 6.6 5.4 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Barley 3.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Oats 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Wheat 59.2 53.6 57.0 55.5 54.0 53.0 52.0 51.5 51.5 51.5 51.0 51.0 Rice 3.1 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Upland cotton 9.0 10.8 12.8 12.5 12.2 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 Soybeans 77.5 77.7 78.0 78.3 78.5 79.0 79.0 79.5 79.5 79.5 79.5 79.5
Total 248.9 245.3 255.3 253.2 251.1 249.9 248.9 248.8 249.3 249.7 249.7 249.6

CRP acreage assumptions

Total CRP 33.7 31.4 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 32.0 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9
Total planted plus CRP 282.6 276.7 287.2 285 .0 283.0 281.9 280.8 280.8 281.2 281.6 281.6 281.5

Harvested acreage, eight major crops

Corn 79.6 81.3 84.9 84.4 83.9 83.4 83.4 83.4 83.9 84.4 84.9 84.9 Sorghum 5.5 4.7 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 Barley 3.1 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Oats 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Wheat 49.9 47.6 48.5 47.2 45.9 45.1 44.2 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.4 43.4 Rice 3.1 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Upland cotton 7.4 10.6 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.3 Soybeans 76.4 76.8 77.1 77.3 77.6 78.1 78.1 78.5 78.5 78.5 78.5 78.5
Total 226.4 228.4 234.3 232.4 230.7 229.7 228.7 228.7 229.2 229.6 229.7 229.6

### 70 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 19. U.S. corn long-term projections Item 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/1 5 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Area (million acres):

Planted acres 86.5 88.2 92.0 91.5 91.0 90.5 90.5 90.5 91.0 91.5 92.0 92.0 Harvested acres 79.6 81.3 84.9 84.4 83.9 83.4 83.4 83.4 83.9 84.4 84.9 84.9

Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 164.7 154.3 162.0 164.0 166.0 168.0 170.0 172.0 174.0 176.0 178.0 180.0

Supply and use (million bushels):

Beginning stocks 1,673 1,708 827 1,127 1,332 1,437 1,447 1,442 1,342 1,262 1,227 1,242 Production 13,110 12,540 13,755 13,840 13,925 14,010 14,180 14,345 14,600 14,855 15,110 15,280 Imports 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Supply 14,792 14,257 14,592 14,977 15,267 15,457 15,637 15,797 15,952 16,127 16,347 16,532

Feed & residual 5,159 5,300 5,200 5,300 5,400 5,500 5,600 5,700 5,750 5,800 5,875 5,950 Food, seed, & industrial 5,938 6,180 6,265 6,320 6,380 6,435 6,495 6,605 6,740 6,850 6,930 6,990 Ethanol for fuel 4,568 4,800 4,875 4,925 4,975 5,025 5,075 5,175 5,300 5,400 5,475 5,525 Domestic use 11,097 11,480 11,465 11,620 11,780 11,935 12,095 12,305 12,490 12,650 12,805 12,940 Exports 1,987 1,950 2,000 2,025 2,050 2,075 2,100 2,150 2,200 2,250 2,300 2,350 Total use 13,084 13,430 13,465 13,645 13,830 14,010 14,195 14,455 14,690 14,900 15,105 15,290

Ending stocks 1,708 827 1,127 1,332 1,437 1,447 1,442 1,342 1,262 1,227 1,242 1,242 Stocks/use ratio, percent 13.1 6.2 8.4 9.8 10.4 10.3 10.2 9.3 8.6 8.2 8.2 8.1

Price (dollars per bushel):

Farm price 3.55 5.20 4.80 4.30 4.10 4.10 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.25 4.25

Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 299 287 304 310 314 318 323 329 335 341 347 353 Per bushel 1.82 1.86 1.87 1.89 1.89 1.90 1.90 1.91 1.93 1.94 1.95 1.96

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 286 515 474 395 367 370 374 384 396 407 410 412 Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 71 Table 20. U.S. sorghum long-term projections Item 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/ 13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Area (million acres):

Planted acres 6.6 5.4 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Harvested acres 5.5 4.7 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2

Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 69.4 72.5 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.3

Supply and use (million bushels):

Beginning stocks 55 41 39 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 Production 383 338 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Supply 438 379 379 384 384 384 384 384 384 384 384 384

Feed & residual 140 90 80 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 Food, seed, & industrial 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 Domestic use 230 180 170 170 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 Exports 166 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 Total use 396 340 335 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340

Ending stocks 41 39 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 Stocks/use ratio, percent 10.4 11.5 13.1 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9

Price (dollars per bushel):

Farm price 3.22 5.30 4.35 3.95 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.85 3.90 3.95 3.95 3.95

Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 146 149 157 161 164 166 169 172 175 178 181 185 Per bushel 2.10 2.06 2.41 2.47 2.51 2.55 2.59 2.64 2.68 2.73 2.78 2.83

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 78 235 127 97 84 82 79 79 80 80 77 73 Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum.

### 72 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 21. U.S. barley long-term projections Item 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Area (million acres):

Planted acres 3.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Harvested acres 3.1 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8

Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 73.0 73.1 67.4 68.0 68.6 69.2 69.7 70.3 70.9 71.5 72.1 72.7

Supply and use (m illion bushels):

Beginning stocks 89 115 86 80 80 82 81 81 82 80 79 80 Production 227 180 189 190 192 194 195 197 199 200 202 204 Imports 17 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Supply 333 311 295 290 292 296 296 298 301 300 301 304

Feed & residual 48 50 40 35 35 40 40 40 45 45 45 45 Food, seed, & industrial 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 166 166 166 166 166 Domestic 212 215 205 200 200 205 205 206 211 211 211 211 Exports 6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Total use 217 225 215 210 210 215 215 216 221 221 221 221

Ending stocks 115 86 80 80 82 81 81 82 80 79 80 83 Stocks/use ratio, percent 53.0 38.2 37.2 38.1 39.0 37.7 37.7 38.0 36.2 35.7 36.2 37.6

Price (dollars per bushel):

Farm price 4.66 4.00 4.70 4.95 4.75 4.70 4.75 4.80 4.85 4.90 4.90 4.90

Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 143 141 149 152 155 157 160 163 166 169 172 175 Per bushel 1.96 1.93 2.21 2.24 2.25 2.27 2.29 2.32 2.34 2.36 2.39 2.41

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 197 151 168 184 171 168 171 175 178 181 181 181 Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for barley.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 73 Table 22. U.S. oats long-term projections Item 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/ 13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/ 17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Area (million acres):

Planted acres 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Harvested acres 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 67.5 64.3 65.0 65. 4 65.8 66.2 66.6 67.0 67.5 67.9 68.3 68.7

Supply and use (million bushels):

Beginning stocks 84 80 48 47 46 45 44 44 43 43 43 43 Production 93 81 78 78 79 79 80 80 81 81 82 82 Imports 95 80 110 105 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Supply 272 242 236 230 225 224 224 224 224 224 225 225

Feed & residual 115 115 110 105 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Food, seed, & industrial 75 76 76 76 77 77 77 78 78 78 79 79 Domestic 190 191 186 181 177 177 177 178 178 178 179 179 Exports 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Total use 192 194 189 184 180 180 180 181 181 181 182 182

Ending stocks 80 48 47 46 45 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 Stocks/use ratio, percent 41.7 24.7 24. 9 25.0 25.0 24.4 24.4 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.6 23.6

Price (dollars per bushel):

Farm price 2.02 2.35 2.75 2.55 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55

Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 102 101 107 109 111 112 114 117 119 121 124 126 Per bushel 1.52 1.57 1.64 1.66 1. 68 1.70 1.72 1.74 1.76 1.79 1.81 1.84

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 34 50 72 58 54 53 52 51 53 52 50 49 Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for oats.

### 74 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 23. U.S. wheat long-term projections Item 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/ 15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/1 8 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Area (million acres):

Planted acres 59.2 53.6 57.0 55.5 54.0 53.0 52.0 51.5 51.5 51.5 51.0 51.0 Harvested acres 49.9 47.6 48.5 47.2 45.9 45.1 44.2 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.4 43.4

Yields (bushels per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 44.5 46.4 43.8 44.2 44.5 44.8 45.2 45.5 45.8 46.1 46.5 46.8

Supply and use (million bushels):

Beginning stocks 657 976 848 718 706 746 759 743 718 694 682 661 Production 2,218 2,208 2,125 2,085 2,045 2,020 2,000 1,995 2,005 2,020 2,020 2,030 Imports 119 110 110 110 110 115 115 120 120 125 125 130 Supply 2,993 3,294 3,083 2,913 2,861 2,881 2,874 2,858 2,843 2,839 2,827 2,821

Food 917 940 950 959 968 977 986 995 1,004 1,013 1,022 1,031 Seed 69 76 75 73 72 70 70 70 70 69 69 69 Feed & residual 150 180 190 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 Domestic 1,137 1,196 1,215 1,207 1,215 1,222 1,231 1,240 1,249 1,257 1,266 1,275 Exports 881 1,250 1,150 1,000 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 Total use 2,018 2,446 2,365 2,207 2,115 2,122 2,131 2,140 2,149 2,157 2,166 2,175

Ending stocks 976 848 718 706 746 759 743 718 694 682 661 646 Stocks/use ratio, percent 48.4 34.7 30.4 32.0 35.3 35.8 34.9 33.6 32.3 31.6 30.5 29.7

Price (dollars per bushel):

Farm price 4.87 5.50 6.50 5.90 5.55 5.45 5.45 5.50 5.50 5.55 5.55 5.60

Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 129 125 133 136 138 140 142 145 148 151 154 157 Per bushel 2.89 2.70 3.03 3.07 3.09 3.12 3.15 3.19 3.23 3.27 3.30 3.35

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 88 130 152 125 109 104 104 105 104 105 104 105 Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for wheat.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 75 Table 24. U.S. soybeans and products long-term projections Item 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Soybeans

Area (million acres): Planted 77.5 77.7 78.0 78.3 78.5 79.0 79.0 79.5 79.5 79.5 79.5 79.5 Harvested 76.4 76.8 77.1 77.3 77.6 78.1 78.1 78.5 78.5 78.5 78.5 78.5 Yield/harvested acre (bushels) 44.0 43.9 43.5 44.0 44.4 44.9 45.3 45.8 46.2 46.7 47.1 47.6 Supply (million bushels) Beginning stocks, September 1 138 151 185 190 195 194 197 199 196 197 198 199 Production 3,359 3,375 3,355 3,395 3,445 3,505 3,540 3,590 3,625 3,660 3,695 3,735 Imports 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Total supply 3,512 3,536 3,550 3,595 3,650 3,709 3,747 3,799 3,831 3,867 3,903 3,945 Disposition (million bushels) Crush 1,752 1,665 1,660 1,670 1,695 1,715 1,735 1,770 1,790 1,810 1,830 1,850 Seed and residual 108 117 125 125 126 127 128 128 129 129 129 130 Exports 1,501 1,570 1,575 1,605 1,635 1,670 1,685 1,705 1,715 1,730 1,745 1,765 Total disposition 3,361 3,351 3,360 3,400 3,456 3,512 3,548 3,603 3,634 3,669 3,704 3,745 Carryover stocks, August 31 Total ending stocks 151 185 190 195 194 197 199 196 197 198 199 200 Stocks/use ratio, percent 4.5 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 Price (dollars per bushel) Soybean price, farm 9.59 11.45 11.20 10.55 10.25 10.20 10.25 10.25 10.30 10.30 10.35 10.35 Variable costs of production (dollars): Per acre 132 131 136 139 140 142 144 146 148 150 152 154 Per bushel 3.01 2.98 3.13 3.15 3.16 3.17 3.18 3.19 3.20 3.22 3.23 3.24 Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre): Net returns 290 372 351 325 315 315 320 323 328 330 335 338

Soybean oil (million pounds) Beginning stocks, October 1 2,861 3,358 2,653 2,368 2,073 2,093 2,143 2,123 2,208 2,223 2,198 2,128 Production 19,615 18,980 18,9 40 19,070 19,375 19,620 19,865 20 ,285 20,530 20,780 21,025 21,275 Imports 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 Total supply 22,581 22,453 21,718 21,573 21,593 21,868 22,173 22,583 22,923 23,198 23,428 23,618 Domestic disappearance 15,822 17,100 17,400 18,00 0 18,200 18,425 18,650 18,875 1 9,125 19,375 19,625 19,875 For methyl ester 1 1,682 2,900 3,100 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,525 3,550 3,575 3,600 Exports 3,400 2,700 1,950 1,500 1,300 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,575 1,625 1,675 1,700 Total demand 19,222 19,800 19,350 19,500 19,500 19,725 20,050 20,375 20,700 21,000 21,300 21,575 Ending stocks, September 30 3,358 2,653 2,36 8 2,073 2,093 2,143 2,123 2,208 2,223 2,198 2,128 2,043 Soybean oil price (dollars per lb) 0.357 0.445 0 .455 0.455 0.455 0.460 0.460 0.460 0.463 0.465 0.468 0.470

Soybean meal (thousand short tons) Beginning stocks, October 1 235 303 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Production 41,702 39,532 39,4 35 39,685 40,235 40,685 41,235 41 ,985 42,485 42,985 43,485 43,985 Imports 150 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 Total supply 42,087 40,000 39,900 40,150 40,700 41,150 41,700 42,450 42,950 43,450 43,950 44,450 Domestic disappearance 30,634 30,600 31,000 31,25 0 31,700 32,150 32,650 33,150 3 3,650 34,150 34,650 35,150 Exports 11,150 9,100 8,600 8,600 8,700 8,700 8,750 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 Total demand 41,784 39,700 39,600 39,850 40,400 40,850 41,400 42,150 42,650 43,150 43,650 44,150 Ending stocks, September 30 303 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Soybean meal price (dollars per ton) 311.27 330.00 312. 50 286.00 275.00 271.00 273.50 27 3.50 275.00 274.00 275.00 275.00

Crushing yields (pounds per bushel) Soybean oil 11.20 11.40 11.41 11.42 11.43 11.44 11.45 11.46 11.47 11.48 11.49 11.50 Soybean meal 47.60 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 47.50 Crush margin (dollars per bushel) 1.81 1.46 1.41 1.44 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.54 1.55 1.55 1.59 Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for soyb eans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal. 1/ Soybean oil used for methyl ester for production of bi odiesel, history from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

### 76 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 25. U.S. rice long-t erm projections, rough basis Item 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/ 15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 20 18/19 2019/20 2020/21

TOTAL Area (thousand acres): Planted 3,135 3,642 3,300 3,200 3,215 3,230 3,290 3,300 3,310 3,310 3,310 3,310 Harvested 3,103 3,623 3,275 3,176 3,191 3,206 3,265 3,275 3,285 3,285 3,285 3,285 Yields (pounds per acre): Yield/harvested acre 7,085 6,669 7,102 7,191 7,267 7,339 7,400 7,466 7,534 7,595 7,662 7,726 Supply and use (million hundredweight): Beginning stocks 30.6 36.7 49.8 50.9 45.9 41.4 37.4 36.7 36.5 36.9 36.7 36.7 Production 219.9 241.6 232.6 228.4 231. 9 235.3 241.6 244.5 247.5 249.5 251.7 253.8 Imports 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.4 24.0 24.7 25.3 Total supply 269.4 297.8 302.4 299.9 29 8.9 298.4 301.2 304.0 307.5 310.4 313.0 315.8 Domestic use and residual 122.6 129.0 130.5 1 32.0 133.5 135.0 136.5 138.0 139.6 141.2 142.8 144.4 Exports 110.2 119.0 121.0 122.0 124.0 126.0 128.0 129.5 131.0 132.5 133.5 134.5 Total use 232.7 248.0 251.5 254.0 257. 5 261.0 264.5 267.5 270.6 273.7 276.3 278.9 Ending stocks 36.7 49.8 50.9 45.9 41.4 37.4 36.7 36.5 36.9 36.7 36.7 36.9 Stocks/use ratio, percent 15.8 20.1 20.2 18.1 16.1 14.3 13.9 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.2 Milling rate, percent 69.4 68.9 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 Prices (dollars per hundredweight): World price 11.24 11.15 11.00 10.30 10.30 10.51 10.72 10.93 11.15 11.37 11.60 11.83 Average farm price 14.00 12.60 12.60 12.10 12.20 12.51 12.72 12.93 13.15 13.37 13.60 13.83 Variable costs of pr oduction (dollars):
Per acre 472 480 502 513 520 528 536 544 553 562 571 580 Per hundredweight 6.71 7.19 7.07 7.13 7.16 7.19 7.24 7.29 7.34 7.39 7.45 7.51 Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):
Net returns 520 361 393 357 366 390 406 421 438 454 471 489

LONG GRAIN Area (thousand acres): Planted 2,290 2,836 2,500 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,450 2,450 2,450 2,450 2,450 2,450 Harvested 2,265 2,821 2,480 2,381 2,381 2,381 2,430 2,430 2,430 2,430 2,430 2,430 Yields (lbs per acre): Yield/harvested acre 6,743 6,434 6,800 6,892 6,974 7,051 7,123 7,194 7,266 7,339 7,412 7,486 Supply and use (million hundredweight): Beginning stocks 20.1 23.2 38.6 39.6 34.6 30.0 25.7 25.1 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.2 Production 152.7 181.5 168.6 164.1 166. 1 167.9 173.1 174.8 176.6 178.3 180.1 181.9 Imports 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.3 21.8 Total supply 189.3 221.6 224.6 221.6 21 9.0 216.7 218.1 219.6 221.4 223.3 225.5 227.9
Domestic use & residual 90.8 99.0 100.0 101. 0 102.0 103.0 104.0 105.0 106.1 107.2 108.3 109.4 Exports 75.4 84.0 85.0 86.0 87.0 88.0 89.0 90.0 91.0 92.0 93.0 94.0 Total use 166.2 183.0 185.0 187.0 189. 0 191.0 193.0 195.0 197.1 199.2 201.3 203.4 Ending stocks 23.2 38.6 39.6 34.6 30.0 25.7 25.1 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.2 24.5 Stocks/use ratio, percent 13.9 21.1 21.4 18.5 15.9 13.5 13.0 12.6 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.0 Price (dollars per hundredweight): Average farm price 12.80 11.00 10.75 10.45 10.59 10.98 11.19 11.47 11.81 12.03 12.26 12.47

MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN Area (thousand acres):
Planted 845 806 800 800 815 830 840 850 860 860 860 860 Harvested 838 802 795 795 810 825 835 845 855 855 855 855 Yields (lbs per acre): Yield/harvested acre 8,010 7,495 8,050 8,090 8,129 8,168 8,208 8,248 8,289 8,330 8,372 8,414 Supply and use (million hundredweight): Beginning stocks 8.0 12.1 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.2 10.5 11.1 11.1 11.1 Production 67.1 60.1 64.0 64.3 65.8 67.4 68.5 69.7 70.9 71.2 71.6 71.9 Imports 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 Total supply 78.7 74.7 76.3 76.8 78.4 80.2 81.7 83.0 84.6 85.6 86.1 86.5
Domestic use & residual 31.8 30.0 30.5 31.0 31.5 32.0 32.5 33.0 33.5 34.0 34.5 35.0 Exports 34.8 35.0 36.0 36.0 37.0 38.0 39.0 39.5 40.0 40.5 40.5 40.5 Total use 66.6 65.0 66.5 67.0 68.5 70.0 71.5 72.5 73.5 74.5 75.0 75.5 Ending stocks 12.1 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.2 10.5 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 Stocks/use ratio, percent 18.1 14.9 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.6 14.3 14.5 15.1 14.9 14.8 14.6 Price (dollars per hundredweight): Average farm price 17.70 17.80 17.40 16.37 16.31 16.34 16.50 16.53 16.55 16.62 16.85 17.16 Note: Marketing year begi nning August 1 for rice.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 77 Table 26. U.S. upland cotton long-term projections Item 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/ 15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Area (million acres):

Planted acres 9.0 10.8 12.8 12.5 12.2 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 Harvested acres 7.4 10.6 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.3

Yields (pounds per acre):

Yield/harvested acre 766 814 820 825 830 835 840 845 850 855 860 865

Supply and use (thousand bales):

Beginning stocks 6,032 2,929 2,179 3,100 3,870 4,390 4,760 4,880 5,050 5,270 5,340 5,460 Production 11,788 17,920 19,300 19,100 18,800 18,600 18,400 18,500 18,600 18,500 18,600 18,600 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Supply 17,820 20,849 21,479 22,200 22,670 22,990 23,160 23,380 23,650 23,770 23,940 24,060

Domestic use 3,429 3,420 3,370 3,320 3,270 3,220 3,170 3,120 3,070 3,020 2,970 2,920 Exports 11,343 15,275 15,000 15,000 15,000 15, 000 15,100 15,200 15,300 15,400 15,500 15,600 Total use 14,772 18,695 18,370 18,320 18,27 0 18,220 18,270 18,320 18,370 18,420 18,470 18,520

Ending stocks 2,929 2,179 3,100 3,870 4,390 4,760 4,880 5,050 5,270 5,340 5,460 5,530 Stocks/use ratio, percent 19.8 11.7 16.9 21.1 24.0 26.1 26.7 27.6 28.7 29.0 29.6 29.9

Price (dollars per pound):

Farm price 0.629 0.800 0.850 0.750 0.700 0.705 0.710 0.715 0.720 0.725 0.730 0.735

Variable costs of production (dollars):

Per acre 446 468 486 496 505 514 523 533 543 553 563 574 Per pound 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.66

Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre):

Net returns 134 299 328 239 189 187 187 185 184 183 181 179 Note: Marketing year beginning August 1 for upland cotton.

### 78 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 27. U.S. sugar long-term projections Item Units 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Sugarbeets Planted area 1,000 acres 1,186 1,183 1,186 1,100 1,107 1,119 1,121 1,119 1,115 1,110 1,106 1,102 Harvested area 1,000 acres 1,149 1,154 1,138 1,055 1,062 1,073 1,075 1,073 1,069 1,065 1,060 1,057 Yield Tons/acre 25.7 27.7 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 Production Mil. s. tons 29.6 31.9 29.7 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5

Sugarcane Harvested area 1,000 acres 812 819 818 815 815 816 816 816 816 816 816 816 Yield Tons/acre 34.8 33.6 34.1 34.2 34.4 34.6 34.8 34.9 35.1 35.3 35.5 35.7 Production Mil. s. tons 28.3 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1

Supply: Beginning stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,534 1,501 1,265 1,522 1,564 1,578 1,591 1,603 1,616 1,629 1,641 1,652 Production 1,000 s. tons 7,967 8,230 8,321 8,013 8,098 8,201 8,268 8,313 8,349 8,385 8,418 8,457 Beet sugar 1,000 s. tons 4,575 4,800 4,845 4,525 4,589 4,668 4,712 4,735 4,749 4,764 4,775 4,793 Cane sugar 1,000 s. tons 3,392 3,430 3,476 3,488 3,510 3,533 3,556 3,578 3,600 3,621 3,643 3,664 Total imports 1,000 s. tons 3,320 2,744 3,208 3,613 3,607 3,597 3,622 3,670 3,726 3,783 3,831 3,886

TRQ imports 1,000 s. tons 1,854 1,409 1,409 1,415 1,417 1,420 1,422 1,427 1,430 1,432 1,435 1,436 Mexico 1,000 s. tons 807 1,025 1,474 1,873 1,865 1,852 1,874 1,918 1,972 2,026 2,071 2,125 Other imports 1,000 s. tons 658 310 325 325 325 325 325 325 325 325 325 325 Total supply 1,000 s. tons 12,821 12,475 12,794 13,148 13,269 13,376 13,480 13,586 13,691 13,797 13,890 13,995

Use: Exports 1,000 s. tons 211 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 Domestic deliveries 1,000 s. tons 11,133 11,060 11,122 11,434 11,541 11,635 11,727 11,820 11,913 12,006 12,088 12,181 Miscellaneous 1,000 s. tons -22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total use 1,000 s. tons 11,321 11,210 11,272 11,584 11,691 11,785 11,877 11,970 12,063 12,156 12,238 12,331

CCC surplus disbursements 1 1,000 s. tons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ending stocks 1,000 s. tons 1,501 1,265 1,522 1,564 1,578 1,591 1,603 1,616 1,629 1,641 1,652 1,665

Raw sugar price:

New York (No. 16) Cents/lb. 35.36 23.99 22.92 22.92 22.92 22.92 22.92 22.92 22.92 22.92 22.92 22.92 Raw sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 18.25 18.50 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75 Beet sugar loan rate Cents/lb. 23.45 23.77 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 Grow er prices:

Sugarbeets Dol./ton 46.70 48. 86 41.83 41.09 41.09 41.09 41. 09 41.09 41.09 41. 09 41.09 41.09 Sugarcane Dol./ton 34.59 30.87 29.54 29.49 29.51 29.53 29.55 29.57 29.59 29.61 29.63 29.65 Note: Marketing year beginning October 1 for sugar. 1/ CCC is the Commodity Credit Corporation, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 79 Table 28. Horticultural crops long-term supply and use projections, calendar years Item Unit 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Production area 1

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables 1,000 acres 10,827 10,931 10,974 11,018 11,064 11,111 11,159 11,209 11,261 11,314 11,368 11,424

Fruit and tree nuts 1,000 acres 3,987 3,990 3,993 3,996 4,000 4,005 4,010 4,015 4,021 4,028 4,034 4,042 Vegetables and melons 1,000 acres 6,840 7,100 6,650 6,850 7,064 7,106 7,150 7,194 7,240 7,286 7,334 7,383 Supply

Production, farm w eight

Fruit and nuts Mil. lbs. 63,954 62,502 64,523 64,666 64,816 64,972 65,134 65,303 65,479 65,661 65,850 66,045

Citrus Mil. lbs. 23,678 21,856 23,502 23,267 23,034 22,804 22,576 22,350 22,127 21,905 21,686 21,469 Noncitrus Mil. lbs. 36,258 36,548 36,840 37,135 37,432 37,732 38,034 38,338 38,645 38,954 39,265 39,579 Tree nuts Mil. lbs. 4,018 4,098 4,180 4,264 4,349 4,436 4,525 4,615 4,708 4,802 4,898 4,996
Vegetables and melons 2 Mil. lbs. 140,552 138,832 138,718 139,889 141,078 142,286 143,513 144,760 146,028 147,316 148,626 149,958

Fresh market Mil. lbs. 58,662 56,850 59,602 60,261 60,934 61,622 62,325 63,043 63,777 64,527 65,293 66,077 Processing Mil. lbs. 41,581 38,633 38,864 39,098 39,332 39,568 39,806 40,045 40,285 40,526 40,770 41,014 Potatoes Mil. lbs. 35,349 33,000 35,108 35,284 35,460 35,638 35,816 35,995 36,175 36,356 36,537 36,720 Pulses Mil. lbs. 4,959 5,475 5,143 5,246 5,351 5,458 5,567 5,678 5,792 5,908 6,026 6,146 Total fruit, nuts, vegetables Mil. lbs. 204,506 201,334 203,241 204,555 205,893 207,258 208,648 210,064 211,507 212,977 214,476 216,003
Imports, farm w eight

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 59,894 64,931 66,487 68,148 69,852 71,601 73,395 75,236 77,124 79,062 81,050 83,090

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 36,952 39,520 40,314 41,164 42,032 42,918 43,822 44,746 45,690 46,653 47,637 48,641 Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 22,941 25,411 26,173 26,984 27,821 28,683 29,572 30,489 31,434 32,409 33,414 34,449
Use

Exports, farm w eight

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 33,409 34,899 35,323 35,753 36,189 36,633 37,083 37,540 38,004 38,476 38,955 39,441

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 13,577 14,325 14,440 14,557 14,675 14,796 14,918 15,043 15,170 15,299 15,430 15,564 Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 19,833 20,574 20,883 21,196 21,514 21,837 22,164 22,497 22,834 23,177 23,525 23,877

Domestic use 3

Fruit, nuts, and vegetables Mil. lbs. 222,423 222,827 226,045 228,480 230,973 233,527 236,143 238,821 241,565 244,375 247,253 250,201

Fruit and tree nuts Mil. lbs. 94,300 94,697 97,612 98,558 99,529 100,524 101,544 102,589 103,661 104,758 105,882 107,033 Vegetables & melons Mil. lbs. 128,123 128,130 128,433 129,921 131,444 133,003 134,599 136,232 137,905 139,617 141,371 143,168

Farm sales value 4

Fruit and nuts $ Mil. 18,965 19,320 19,696 20,043 20,397 20,760 21,132 21,512 21,900 22,298 22,705 23,121

Citrus $ Mil. 2,845 2,859 2,888 2,879 2,870 2,862 2,853 2,845 2,836 2,828 2,819 2,811 Noncitrus $ Mil. 11,944 12,185 12,404 12,628 12,855 13,086 13,322 13,562 13,806 14,054 14,307 14,565 Tree nuts $ Mil. 4,151 4,276 4,404 4,536 4,672 4,812 4,957 5,105 5,258 5,416 5,579 5,746 Vegetables and melons $ Mil. 21,554 21,783 22,153 22,530 22,913 23,303 23,700 24,104 24,515 24,933 25,359 25,793

Fresh market $ Mil. 13,394 13,518 13,709 13,903 14,099 14,298 14,500 14,704 14,912 15,122 15,335 15,551 Processing $ Mil. 3,635 3,683 3,765 3,848 3,933 4,020 4,109 4,200 4,293 4,388 4,484 4,583 Potatoes $ Mil. 3,396 3,430 3,496 3,562 3,630 3,699 3,769 3,840 3,913 3,988 4,064 4,141 Pulses $ Mil. 1,129 1,151 1,184 1,217 1,251 1,286 1,322 1,359 1,397 1,436 1,476 1,518
Nursery and greenhouse 5 $ Mil. 15,915 16,026 16,154 16,283 16,414 16,545 16,677 16,811 16,945 17,081 17,217 17,355 Other horticulture crops 6 $ Mil. 859 875 899 925 950 977 1,004 1,033 1,061 1,091 1,122 1,153 Total horticulture crops $ Mil. 57,294 58,003 58,902 59,780 60,674 61,585 62,513 63,459 64,422 65,403 66,403 67,422
Producer prices 7

Fresh fruits 1982=100 110.4 122.2 120.7 122.5 124.4 126.3 128.3 130.2 132.2 134.3 136.3 138.4

Citrus 1982=100 164.3 167.0 159.9 164.0 168.1 172.3 176.6 180.8 185.1 189.4 193.7 198.1 Noncitrus 1982=100 107.6 123.5 124.7 126.0 127.2 128.5 129.7 131.0 132.3 133.6 135.0 136.3 Tree nuts 1982=100 808.9 836.0 844.2 852.5 860.8 869.3 877.8 886.4 895.1 903.9 912.7 921.7 Vegetables 1982=100 162.2 181.7 184.9 186.5 188.1 189.7 191.2 192.8 194.4 196.0 197.6 199.2

Fresh vegetables 1982=100 169.4 195.0 183.3 186.9 190.4 193.9 197.5 201.0 204.5 207.9 211.4 214.8 Potatoes (fresh) 1982=100 155.7 137.0 137.2 139.1 141.1 143.0 145.0 147.0 149.1 151.2 153.3 155.4 Pulses (dried) 1982=100 156.6 145.0 158.7 175.0 176.4 177.8 179.2 180.6 182.0 183.4 184.8 186.3 Fruit, nuts, and vegetables 1982=100 146.7 162.3 163.7 165.5 167.2 169.0 170.8 172.6 174.5 176.3 178.2 180.0 1/ Bearing acreage for fruit and nuts; harvested area for vegetables . 2/ Utilized production is used for potatoes. Pulses inc lude edible dry beans and peas, lentils, and other peas. 3/ In farm or fresh w eight units. Stock changes are accounted for. 4/ Farm cash receipts for fresh and processing vegetables are allocated based on their relative production value shares. 5/ Includes floral crops, greenhouse vegetables such as tomatoes, c ucumbers, sw eet and hot peppers, and fruit and vegetable transplants. 6/ Includes honey, m aple syrup, hops, mint oils, taro, ginger root, and coffee f rom Haw aii and Puerto Rico. 7/ Not seasonally adjusted producer price indexes for farm commodities from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices for fresh fruits include melons. Data sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; Foreign Agricultural Service; Economic Research Service; U.S. Dep artment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

### 80 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 29. Horticultural crops long-term export and import projections, fiscal years Item Unit 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Exports Fruit and nuts Fresh fruits $ Mil. 3,522 3,799 4,082 4,273 4,429 4,589 4,756 4,929 5,108 5,293 5,485 5,684 Citrus $ Mil. 726 924 975 1,040 1,063 1,087 1,110 1,134 1,159 1,183 1,207 1,232 Noncitrus $ Mil. 2,795 2,874 3,107 3,234 3,366 3,503 3,646 3,794 3,949 4,110 4,278 4,452 Processed fruits $ Mil. 2,266 2,380 2,578 2,712 2,797 2,885 2,976 3,070 3,167 3,267 3,370 3,476 Fruit juices $ Mil. 1,107 1,152 1,180 1,209 1,239 1,269 1,300 1,332 1,364 1,398 1,432 1,467 Tree nuts $ Mil. 3,495 4,060 4,300 4,519 4,749 4,990 5,244 5,511 5,792 6,087 6,396 6,722 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 9,283 10,239 10,960 11,504 11,974 12,465 12,977 13,510 14,066 14,646 15,251 15,882

Vegetables Fresh $ Mil. 1,892 2,060 2,118 2,184 2,252 2,322 2,394 2,469 2,546 2,625 2,707 2,791
Processed 1 $ Mil. 3,113 3,233 3,322 3,423 3,526 3,634 3,744 3,858 3,975 4,095 4,220 4,348 Total vegetables $ Mil. 5,005 5,294 5,440 5,607 5,778 5,956 6,138 6,327 6,521 6,720 6,927 7,139

Other horticulture

Nursery and greenhouse $ Mil. 355 336 340 345 350 354 359 364 369 374 379 384 Essential oils $ Mil. 1,234 1,367 1,424 1,484 1,546 1,611 1,679 1,750 1,823 1,900 1,980 2,063 Wine $ Mil. 827 1,004 1,036 1,069 1,104 1,139 1,176 1,214 1,253 1,293 1,335 1,377 Beer $ Mil. 296 296 304 313 321 330 340 349 359 369 379 390 Other 2 $ Mil. 3,636 4,076 4,796 4,997 5,206 5,424 5,651 5,887 6,132 6,387 6,652 6,928

Total horticulture $ Mil. 20,634 22,610 24,300 25,318 26,280 27,280 28,319 29,399 30,522 31,688 32,901 34,162

Fresh produce 3 $ Mil. 5,414 5,859 6,200 6,457 6,681 6,912 7,150 7,398 7,654 7,918 8,192 8,475 Processed produce 3 $ Mil. 5,379 5,613 5,900 6,134 6,324 6,519 6,720 6,928 7,142 7,362 7,589 7,824 Imports Fruit and nuts Fresh fruits $ Mil. 6,074 6,803 7,500 7,938 8,287 8,650 9,029 9,425 9,838 10,270 10,720 11,190 Citrus $ Mil. 442 464 500 527 549 571 594 618 644 670 697 725 Noncitrus $ Mil. 5,632 6,339 7,000 7,411 7,738 8,079 8,435 8,807 9,195 9,600 10,023 10,465 Processed fruits $ Mil. 3,375 3,276 3,500 3,682 3,826 3,976 4,131 4,293 4,461 4,635 4,816 5,004 Fruit juices $ Mil. 1,414 1,279 1,400 1,447 1,483 1,521 1,559 1,598 1,638 1,679 1,722 1,765 Tree nuts $ Mil. 1,151 1,332 1,500 1,559 1,619 1,683 1,748 1,817 1,888 1,961 2,038 2,118 Total fruit and nuts $ Mil. 10,601 11,411 12,500 13,179 13,732 14,309 14,909 15,535 16,187 16,866 17,574 18,312

Vegetables Fresh $ Mil. 4,237 5,180 5,800 6,172 6,468 6,779 7,105 7,446 7,804 8,179 8,573 8,985
Processed 1 $ Mil. 3,483 3,574 3,800 4,104 4,270 4,442 4,621 4,807 5,001 5,203 5,412 5,630 Total vegetables $ Mil. 7,720 8,754 9,600 10,276 10,738 11,221 11,726 12,254 12,805 13,382 13,985 14,615

Other horticulture

Nursery and greenhouse $ Mil. 1,357 1,441 1,600 1,617 1,635 1,653 1,671 1,689 1,707 1,726 1,744 1,763 Essential oils $ Mil. 2,406 2,414 2,600 2,789 2,941 3,102 3,271 3,450 3,638 3,836 4,046 4,267 Wine $ Mil. 4,084 4,258 4,500 4,792 4,999 5,215 5,441 5,676 5,922 6,178 6,445 6,724 Beer $ Mil. 3,428 3,452 3,600 3,781 3,908 4,039 4,175 4,315 4,460 4,610 4,764 4,924 Other 2 $ Mil. 3,421 3,820 4,100 4,407 4,604 4,809 5,023 5,247 5,481 5,725 5,981 6,247

Total horticulture $ Mil. 33,017 35,549 38,500 40,843 42,558 44,348 46,216 48,165 50,200 52,323 54,539 56,852

Fresh produce 3 $ Mil. 10,311 11,983 13,300 14,110 14,755 15,429 16,134 16,872 17,643 18,449 19,293 20,175 Processed produce 3 $ Mil. 6,859 6,850 7,300 7,787 8,096 8,418 8,752 9,100 9,462 9,838 10,229 10,635 1/ Includes dry edible beans, peas, lentils, and potatoes. 2/ Includes hops, ginseng, sauces, condiments, mixed food, yeast, s tarches, and other products that contain horticulture ingredients. 3/ Includes fruits and vegetables only. Exports are free alongside ship (FAS) value at U.S. port of exportation. Imports are customs value at U.S. port of entry. Data source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 81 

## U.S. Livestock
During the first several years of the projections, the livestock sector responds to high grain and soybean meal prices in 2011—with producer returns squ eezed, production incentives are reduced, leading to declines in total U.S. red meat and poultry produc tion in 2012 and only moderate increases in 2011 and 2013. Combined with strengthening exports, the result is declining domestic per capita consumption of red meat and poultry through 2013. As a consequence, prices in the sector rise, which improves net returns and provides economic incentives for expansion in the sector later in the projection period.

 Despite improved returns for cow-calf operators in 2010, strong demand for feeder cattle and cows for slaughter have limited producer interest in expanding beef cow inventories after several years of declines. Thus, reduced inventories and expect ed heifer retention during 2011 are expected to lead to reduced beef production through 2012. B eef production then rises in the remainder of the projection period as strengthening returns support he rd rebuilding. Beef cow numbers rise from about 31 million head at the beginning of 2011 to over 34 million by 2020. The total cattle inventory drops below 92 million head before expa nding to about 96.7 million at the end of the projection period. Rising slaughter weights also contribute to the longer term expansion of beef production. Although feed prices decline from cu rrent levels, continued historically-high feed costs result in stocker cattle remaining on pasture to heavier weights before entering feedlots.

 Pork production falls in 2012 in response to reduced returns in 2011, but as the projection period progresses, producers are expected to increase fa rrowings as higher hog prices and lower feed prices improve returns. Pork production increas es will also be supported by gains in breeding herd productivity and increased slaughter weights al beit at slower rates of gain than in the past several years.

 Poultry production is projected to rise the most among the meats over the next decade, as poultry is the most efficient feed-to-meat converter. Ho wever growth in the sector will be slower than occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. Poultry prices are expected to improve with increased demand, although poultry will face competition from increased supplies of red meats. Additionally, despite declining from recent highs, feed prices are pr ojected to remain relatively high. Poultry production growth is expected to come from both higher bird numbers and higher average weights. Both broiler production and turkey pr oduction expand over the projection period, with broilers increasing at a slightly faster rate. 15 20 25 30 35 40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. red meat and poultry production
Billion pounds

Beef

Pork Broilers

### 82 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Moderate near-term changes in production in the livestock sector, along with projected gains in meat exports, result in higher consumer prices and lower per capita consumption. Annual average consumption of red meats and poultry falls from over 221 pounds per capita in 2004-07 to about 203 pounds in 2012 and 2013. As production increases over the remainder of the projection period, per capita consumption of red meats and poultry resumes growth, but only rises to about 216 pounds by 2020.

 Per capita beef consumption declines through 2013, before rising moderately over the remainder of the projection period. The initial decline reflects continuing reductions in beef production through 2012 coupled with expanding exports. However, as beef production increases in later years, per capita consumption grows.

 Gains in U.S. pork exports combine with moderate pork production changes to push per capita pork consumption down in 2010 through 2013. A gradual rebound in per capita pork consumption occurs over the remainder of the projection period as production gains strengthen.

 Due partly to higher feed conversion rates and a shorter production process, the poultry sector adjusts faster than the red meats sector to higher feed costs. As a result, poultry production is projected to grow throughout the decade. Per capita consumption rises through the end of the projection period and, in contrast to red meats, surpasses levels of the past decade. Further, poultry meat consumption exceeds red meat consumption toward the end of the projection period. 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. per capita meat consumption
Pounds per capita, retail weight

Beef Broilers

Pork

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 83 Prices in the livestock sector are projected to generally rise over the projection period, reflecting a moderate pace of expansion combined with improving domestic and export demands. 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Nominal U.S. livestock prices
Dollars per hundredweight

Beef cattle: Steers, 5-area

Broilers: 12-city

market price

Hogs: National base

### 84 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 The projected rise in U.S. meat and poultry exports ov er the next decade reflects the resumption of global economic growth, a depreciation of th e U.S. dollar, and continued fore ign demand for selected cuts and parts from the large U.S. market. As a result, exports account for a larger share of U.S. meat and poultry use, although the domestic market remains the domi nant source of overall m eat and poultry demand.

 Most U.S. beef exports are high-quality fed beef, typically going to Mexico, Canada, and Pacific Rim nations. A continuing recovery is assumed for U. S. beef exports to Japan and South Korea, export markets that were initially closed to the United States following the first U.S. case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in December 2 003. Beef exports by competitor countries of Australia and Canada increase slowly as herds are rebuilt.

 U.S. imports of processing beef from Australia an d New Zealand increase in the projection period. With more beef demand in East Asian markets being met by the U.S. grain-fed beef, exports of grass-fed beef from Australia and New Zealand to th ose markets are reduced, freeing more of that product for sale to the United St ates. Additionally, moderate be ef cow inventories and beef cow slaughter in the United States raise impo rt demand for processing beef.

 Production efficiency in the U.S. pork sector enha nces the competitiveness of U.S. pork products in global trade. However, longer term U.S. pork expo rt gains will be determined by costs of production and environmental regulations relative to competitors. Production costs tend to be lower in countries such as Brazil that have establis hed or are developing integrated pork industries. However, Brazilian pork producers’ ability to compete in some markets is limited because the projections assume that some countries do not recognize Brazil as free of foot-a nd-mouth disease (FMD). Thus, Pacific Rim nations and Mexico remain key markets for long-term growth of U.S. pork exports, while Brazil’s pork exports expand to Argentina and Asian markets other than Japan and South Korea. Russia is projected to reduce pork imports to facilitate expansion of th eir domestic industry, with pork exports from the United States and Brazil affected the most.

 U.S. broiler exports rise from 2012 through the rest of the projection pe riod. Major U.S. export markets include China and Mexico, but U.S. broiler exports also have been increasing to a number of other countries. Longer term gains in these markets re flect their economic growth and increasing consumer demand. International demand for pou ltry also remains strong because of its lower cost relative to beef and pork. U.S. producers continue to face strong competition from other major exporters, particularly Brazil. For most of the projection period, exports fr om avian influenza-affected countries are expected to be limited to fully cooked products. As with por k, Russia is projected to support their domestic poultry industry by limiting imports. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Beef
Pork Poultr y U.S. meat exports
Billion pounds

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 85 Milk production is projected to continue rising over the projection period, although at a slower pace than in the past several years. An upward trend in output per cow continues, while milk cow numbers decrease in 2012-20.

 After a 4-year increase during 2005-08, milk cow numbers fell in 2009 and 2010 and are projected to continue on a more typical path of year-to-year declines in 2012-20. Cow numbers decline at lower rates toward the end of the projection period as the transition in most regions from smaller, diversified farms to larger, specialized dairy operations matures.

 Milk output per cow is projected to increase through the projection period, reflecting continued technological and genetic developments.

 Domestic commercial use of dairy products increases somewhat faster than the growth in U.S. population over most of the next decade. Cheese demand benefits from greater consumption of prepared foods and increased away-from-home eating. However, per capita consumption of fluid milk is expected to continue to decline slowly.

 Commercial U.S. dairy exports are forecast to increase steadily over the next decade, reaching record levels on a fat and a skim-solids basis. Increased production among the major dairy exporting countries is expected to lag growth in global import demand. The United States is expected to be well positioned to expand exports of dairy products, with sales of cheese and nonfat dry milk growing strongly.

 Farm-level milk prices are projected to rise steadily over the projection period. However, increases are less than the overall rate of inflation largely because of efficiency gains in production resulting from technological improvements and consolidation in the sector. 8 9 10 11

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 10 15 20 25 U.S. dairy herd and milk production per cow

Million cows

Milk cows Output per cow 1,000 pounds per cow

### 86 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 30. Per capita meat consumption, retail w eight Item 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pounds
Total beef 61.1 59.0 57.8 55.9 55.7 56.6 57.4 58.2 58.6 58.8 58.8 58.9 Total veal 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Total pork 50.1 47.0 46.6 45.7 45.2 45.3 45.7 45.8 46.1 46.3 46.5 46.9 Lamb and mutton 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Total red meat 112.7 107.4 105.8 103.0 102.2 103.2 104.4 105.2 105.9 106.3 106.5 106.9

Broilers 79. 7 82.7 83.0 83.5 84.1 85.2 86.3 87.3 88.2 89.1 90.3 91.5 Other chicken 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Turkeys 16.9 16.2 15.8 15.7 15. 8 15.9 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 Total poultry 97.9 100. 3 100.1 100.5 101.2 102.3 103.6 104.8 105.7 106.7 107.9 109.3

Red meat & poultry 210.6 207. 7 205.9 203.5 203.4 205.5 208.0 210.0 211.6 212.9 214.5 216.2

Table 31. Beef long-term projections Item Units 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 642 565 535 515 515 515 515 515 515 515 515 515 Commercial production Mil. lbs. 25,965 25,871 25,445 24,770 25,023 25,712 26,318 26,875 27,305 27,614 27,842 28,075 Change from previous year Percent -2.2 -0.4 -1.6 -2.7 1.0 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.8

Farm production Mil. lbs. 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 Total production Mil. lbs. 26,067 25,973 25,547 24,872 25,125 25,814 26,420 26,977 27,407 27,716 27,944 28,177 Imports Mil. lbs. 2,626 2,468 2,540 2,760 2,800 2,865 2,930 2,995 3,060 3,125 3,190 3,255 Total supply Mil. lbs. 29,335 29,006 28,622 28,147 28,440 29,194 29,865 30,487 30,982 31,356 31,649 31,947

Exports Mil. lbs. 1,935 2,313 2,270 2,401 2,603 2,714 2,784 2,838 2,893 2,950 3,008 3,068

Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 565 535 515 515 515 515 515 515 515 515 515 515

Total consumption Mil. lbs. 26,835 26,158 25,837 25,231 25,322 25,965 26,566 27,134 27,574 27,891 28,126 28,364 Per capita, carcass w eight Pounds 87.3 84. 3 82.6 79.9 79.5 80.9 82.0 83.1 83.8 84.0 84.1 84.1 Per capita, retail w eight Pounds 61.1 59. 0 57.8 55.9 55.7 56.6 57.4 58.2 58.6 58.8 58.8 58.9 Change from previous year Percen t -2.6 -3.4 -2.1 -3.2 -0.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0

Prices:

Beef cattle, farm $/cw t 80.36 91.4 5 96.22 103.03 106.52 106.31 105.6 3 105.62 106.34 108.31 110.48 112.56 Calves, farm $/cw t 106.42 118.78 119.82 132.61 137.0 4 135.10 132.75 131.61 131.65 133.98 136.65 139.67 Steers, 5-area $/cw t 83.25 94.81 99.75 106. 81 110.43 110.21 109.51 109.50 110.24 112.29 114.54 116.69 Yearling steers, Oklahoma City $/cw t 96.14 108. 42 109.25 120.91 124.95 123.18 121.0 4 120.00 120.03 122.16 124.60 127.35

Costs and returns, cow -calf enterprise:

Total cash expenses $/cow 522.11 493.51 524.46 535 .76 545.75 554.00 564.85 576.30 588.23 599.96 611.44 622.40 Returns above cash costs $/cow -30.11 72.69 54. 97 112.80 133.66 125.69 112.99 1 05.64 104.03 114.84 128.25 144.48

Cattle inventory 1,000 head 94,521 93,701 92,550 91,9 51 92,271 93,661 94,849 95, 496 95,799 95,991 96,219 96,696 Beef cow inventory 1,000 head 31,712 31,376 31,104 31 ,193 31,640 32,320 32,877 33, 265 33,483 33,647 33,825 34,130 Total cow inventory 1,000 head 41,045 40,456 40,200 40 ,254 40,676 41,331 41,868 42, 236 42,440 42,583 42,747 43,036

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 87 Table 32. Pork long-term projections Item Units 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 635 525 485 475 475 475 475 475 475 475 475 475 Commercial production Mil. lbs. 22,999 22,234 22,560 22,446 22,474 22,757 23,178 23,486 23,798 24,105 24,445 24,827 Change from previous year Percent -1.5 -3.3 1.5 -0.5 0.1 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6

Farm production Mil. lbs. 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 Total production Mil. lbs. 23,020 22,256 22,581 22,467 22,495 22,778 23,199 23,507 23,819 24,126 24,466 24,848 Imports Mil. lbs. 834 868 895 910 930 955 980 1,005 1,030 1,055 1,080 1,105 Total supply Mil. lbs. 24,489 23,649 23,961 23,852 23,900 24,208 24,654 24,987 25,324 25,656 26,021 26,428

Exports Mil. lbs. 4,095 4,368 4,675 4,785 4,884 5,000 5,125 5,224 5,310 5,396 5,484 5,577

Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 525 485 475 475 475 475 475 475 475 475 475 475

Total consumption Mil. lbs. 19,869 18,796 18,811 18,592 18,541 18,733 19,054 19,288 19,539 19,785 20,062 20,376 Per capita, carcass w eight Pounds 64.6 60.6 60.1 58.9 58.2 58.3 58.8 59.1 59.3 59.6 60.0 60.4 Per capita, retail w eight Pounds 50.1 47.0 46.6 45.7 45.2 45.3 45.7 45.8 46.1 46.3 46.5 46.9 Change from previous year Percent 1.5 -6.2 -0.8 -2.0 -1.1 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8

Prices: Hogs, farm $/cw t 41.98 54.97 55.43 58.55 60.34 60.17 59.57 60.16 60.99 62.15 63.27 64.28 National base, live equivalent $/cw t 41.24 55.29 55.75 58.90 60.70 60.53 59.93 60.53 61.36 62.52 63.65 64.67

Costs and returns, farrow to finish:

Total cash expenses $/cw t 63.26 59.86 70.78 68.04 64.17 62.83 63.02 63.52 64.24 65.04 65.74 66.26 Returns above cash costs $/cw t -19.50 -1.20 -11.63 -5.54 0.23 1.40 0.57 0.70 0.87 1.30 1.80 2.36

Hog inventory, December 1, previous year 1,000 head 67,148 64,887 64,450 64,143 64,217 64,981 66,118 66,947 67,791 68,617 69,536 70,565

Table 33. Young chicken long-term projections Item Units 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 745 616 695 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 Federally inspected slaughter Mil. lbs. 35,511 36,612 37,150 37,490 38,056 38,760 39,502 40,243 40,899 41,580 42,383 43,208 Change from previous year Percent -3.8 3.1 1.5 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9

Production Mil. lbs. 35,131 36,220 36,752 37,088 37,649 38,345 39,079 39,812 40,461 41,135 41,929 42,746 Total supply Mil. lbs. 35,961 36,919 37,543 37,838 38,399 39,095 39,829 40,562 41,211 41,885 42,679 43,496 Change from previous year Perc ent -3.6 2.7 1.7 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.9

Exports Mil. lbs. 6,818 6,346 6,650 6,500 6,550 6,600 6,650 6,700 6,750 6,800 6,850 6,900

Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 616 695 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660

Consumption Mil. lbs. 28,527 29,878 30,233 30,678 31,189 31,835 32,519 33,202 33,801 34,425 35,169 35,936 Per capita, carcass w eight Pounds 92.8 96.3 96.6 97.2 98.0 99.1 100.4 101.7 102.7 103.7 105.1 106.5 Per capita, retail w eight Pounds 79.7 82 .7 83.0 83.5 84.1 85.2 86.3 87.3 88.2 89.1 90.3 91.5 Change from previous year Percent -4.5 3.8 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.4

Prices:

Broilers, farm Cents/lb. 4 5.2 48.5 50.0 51.5 52.6 53.3 53.8 54.4 55.4 56.6 57.6 58.6 12-city market price Cents/lb. 77. 6 83.4 86.0 88.8 90.7 91.9 92.8 93.8 95.6 97.6 99.4 101.0

Costs and returns:

Total costs Cents/lb. 79.65 77.50 85.09 83.80 82.07 82.14 83.27 84.71 86.26 87.93 89.50 91.03 Net returns Cents/lb . -2.04 5.90 0.91 4.98 8.67 9.75 9.52 9.12 9.33 9.70 9.86 9.95

### 88 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 34. Turkey long-term projections Item Units 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Beginning stocks Mil. lbs. 396 262 210 225 250 275 300 300 300 300 300 300 Federally inspected slaughter Mil. lbs. 5,663 5,587 5,560 5,598 5,685 5,776 5,859 5,934 6,010 6,089 6,175 6,268 Change from previous year Percent -9.3 -1.3 -0.5 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5

Production Mil. lbs. 5,588 5,514 5,487 5,525 5,611 5,700 5,783 5,857 5,932 6,010 6,094 6,186 Total supply Mil. lbs. 5,997 5,788 5,709 5,762 5,873 5,987 6,095 6,169 6,244 6,322 6,406 6,498 Change from previous year Percent -6.8 -3.5 -1.4 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4

Exports Mil. lbs. 534 555 550 560 570 580 590 600 610 620 630 640

Ending stocks Mil. lbs. 262 210 225 250 275 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Consumption Mil. lbs. 5,201 5,023 4,934 4,952 5,028 5,107 5,205 5,269 5,334 5,402 5,476 5,558 Per capita Poun ds 16.9 16.2 15.8 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 Change from previous year Percen t -3.8 -4.3 -2.6 -0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Prices:

Turkey, farm Cents/lb. 49.9 60.0 60.0 61.7 62.3 61.4 60.6 60.4 60.7 61.4 62.2 63.0 Hen turkeys, National Cents/lb. 76.5 90.0 90.0 92.6 93.5 92.2 90.9 90.6 91.1 92.2 93.4 94.6

Costs and returns:

Total costs Cents/lb. 77.49 74.94 84.23 82.21 79.17 78.32 78.74 79.52 80.37 81.29 82.07 82.73 Net returns Cents/lb. -0. 99 15.05 5.77 10.40 14.29 13.85 12.16 11.08 10.74 10.87 11.29 11.83

Table 35. Egg long-term projections Item Units 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Beginning stocks Mil. doz. 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Production Mil. doz. 7,534 7,607 7,635 7,597 7,574 7,574 7,612 7,688 7,765 7,843 7,913 7,984 Change from previous year Percent 0.4 1.0 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9

Imports Mil. doz. 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Total supply Mil. doz. 7,562 7,637 7,665 7,627 7,604 7,604 7,642 7,718 7,795 7,873 7,943 8,014 Change from previous year Percent 0.5 1.0 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9

Hatching use Mil. doz. 955 982 1,010 1,018 1,028 1,041 1,055 1,069 1,082 1,095 1,110 1,125 Exports Mil. doz. 242 244 237 240 243 246 249 252 255 258 261 264

Ending stocks Mil. doz. 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

Consumption Mil. doz. 6,347 6,393 6,400 6,351 6,315 6,300 6,320 6,379 6,440 6,501 6,555 6,607 Per capita Number 247.7 247.3 245.4 241.4 238.0 235.4 234.2 234.4 234.7 235.0 235.1 235.1 Change from previous year Percent -0.2 -0.2 -0.8 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

Prices:

Eggs, farm Cents/doz . 82.1 82.8 79.7 86.4 93.6 98.4 103.2 105.6 106.4 107.2 108.0 109.2 New York, Grade A large Cents/doz. 103.0 10 3.0 99.3 108.0 117.0 123.0 129.0 132.0 133.0 134.0 135.0 136.5

Costs and returns:

Total costs Cents/doz. 115.40 109.58 133.24 127.84 120.10 117.72 118.54 120.05 121.97 124.06 125.93 127.41 Net returns Cents/doz. -12.40 -6.58 -33.94 -19.84 -3.10 5.28 10.46 11.95 11.03 9.94 9.07 9.09

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 89 Table 36. Dairy long-term projections Item Units 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Milk production and marketings: Number of cow s 1,000 9,201 9,115 9,130 9,095 9,070 9,045 9,025 9,005 8,990 8,970 8,955 8,940 Milk per cow Pounds 20,576 21,160 21,425 21,780 22,180 22,600 22,990 23,425 23,735 24,105 24,480 24,950 Milk production Bil. lbs. 189.3 192.8 195.6 198.1 201.2 204.4 207.5 210.9 213.4 216.2 219.2 223.1 Farm use Bil. lbs. 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 Marketings Bil. lbs. 188.3 191.9 194.6 197.1 200.2 203.5 206.6 210.0 212.5 215.4 218.4 222.3
Supply and use, milkfat basis:
Beginning commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 10.1 11.3 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.1 10.9 10.5 10.0 9.6 9.3 Marketings Bil. lbs. 188.3 191.9 194.6 197. 1 200.2 203.5 206.6 210.0 212.5 215.4 218.4 222.3 Imports Bil. lbs. 5.6 4.6 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 Commercial supply Bil. lbs. 204.0 207.8 208.9 212.0 215.5 219.1 222.3 225.6 227.8 230.3 233.1 236.8

Domestic commercial use 1 Bil. lbs. 187.3 189.7 192.1 194.9 197.6 200.4 203.3 206.6 208.8 211.1 213.7 216.9 Commercial exports Bil. lbs. 4.5 7.7 6.2 6.2 6.8 7.6 8.1 8.5 9.0 9.6 10.1 10.8 Ending commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 11.3 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.1 10.9 10.5 10.0 9.6 9.3 9.1 Total utilization Bil. lbs. 203.1 207.5 208 .9 212.0 215.5 219.1 222.3 225.6 227.8 230.3 233.1 236.8

CCC net removals 2 Bil. lbs. 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Supply and use, skim solids basis:
Beginning commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 10.9 11.3 11.8 11.5 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 Marketings Bil. lbs. 188.3 191.9 194.6 197. 1 200.2 203.5 206.6 210.0 212.5 215.4 218.4 222.3 Imports Bil. lbs. 5.5 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.9 Commercial supply Bil. lbs. 204.7 208.2 211.3 213.7 216.6 219.9 223.0 226.5 229.1 232.3 235.5 239.8

Domestic commercial use 1 Bil. lbs. 168.6 167.0 170.3 172.5 174.8 177.5 180.3 183.3 185.5 188.0 190.5 193.8 Commercial exports Bil. lbs. 22.4 29.8 2 9.5 30.1 30.9 31.7 32.1 32.7 33.1 33.8 34.4 35.3 Ending commercial stocks Bil. lbs. 11.3 11. 8 11.5 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.7 Total utilization Bil. lbs. 202.3 208.6 211 .3 213.7 216.6 219.9 223.0 226.5 229.1 232.3 235.5 239.8

CCC net removals 2 Bil. lbs. 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Prices:
All milk $/cw t 12.83 16.35 16.40 16.95 17.10 17.30 17.45 17.70 17.90 18.20 18.50 18.70 Dairy projections w ere completed in November 2010. CCC is the Commodity Credit Corporation, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Domestic commercial use is adjusted for the Barter Program. 2/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program.

### 90 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 

## U.S. Agricultural Sector Aggregate Indicators Farm Income, U.S. Trade Value, Food Prices, and Food Expenditures
High commodity prices underlie record projected levels of U.S. agricultural exports and U.S. net farm income in 2011. Although grain, oilseed, and cotton prices, export value, and farm income retreat somewhat in the next several years, a return to steady domestic and international economic growth supports demand for U.S. agricultural products over the next decade. In addition, rising global demand for agricultural commodities for the production of biofuels continues. Thus, after the near-term declines, the value of U.S. agricultural exports and net farm income each rise through the rest of the decade. U.S. retail food prices increase faster than the overall rate of inflation in 2011 and 2012, reflecting higher food commodity prices and energy costs and improved demand as the economic recovery continues.

Net farm income rises to record levels in 2011, largely reflecting the recent runup in prices for many agricultural commodities. While income declines in 2012-14, it grows over the rest of the decade and remains well above the average of the previous decade (2001-10) throughout the projection period.

 Strengthening global food demand and sustained biofuel demand provide a major impetus for projections of rising cash receipts.

 Lower Government payments and rising farm production expenses offset some of the gains in cash receipts and other sources of farm income. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. net farm income

Billion dollars

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 91 Direct Government payments to farmers fall to about $8.5 billion for the latter half of the next decade. Price-dependent program benefits have become less important. Ad hoc and emergency payments are projected to fall from recent levels , in part because the supplemental agricultural disaster assistance programs authorized under the 2008 Farm Act only cover qualifying losses that occur before October 2011. As a result, the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and fixed direct payments represent about 88 percent of direct Government payments toward the end of the projection period.

 Improving domestic and international demand holds prices for most crops above levels that would result in marketing loan benefits or counter-cyclical payments, so projected benefits for these programs are negligible over the next decade. Similarly, with relatively low enrollment and projected long-run stability in commodity prices, projections of payments under the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program average less than $100 million over 2012-20.

 High crop prices make the use of land for production more valuable, so rental rates for land in the CRP rise. Even with reduced CRP acreage enrollment due to the 2008 Farm Act’s lowering of the maximum acreage permitted in the program, CRP payments rise from about $1.9 billion in 2010 to $2.4 billion in 2020.

 With high prices, Government payments have a smaller role in the agricultural sector’s income. Government payments, which represented more than 8 percent of gross cash income in 2005, fall to about 2 percent by the end of the projection period. Conversely, the sector relies on the market for more of its income. 0 5 10 15 20 25

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Direct Government payments

Total direct Government payments Billion dollars

### 92 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Total farm production expenses are projected to rise somewhat less rapidly than the overall rate of inflation over 2011-2020. While interest expenses an d some energy-related costs rise faster than the general inflation rate, expenses for farm-o rigin inputs (seed, feed, and livestock) and most other nonfarm-origin expenses are up less than the general inflation rate.

 Projected increases in interest costs rise faster than the general inflation rate, due to rising interest rates from the low rates of recent years as well as increased debt.

 Energy-related production expenses for fertilizer and for fuel and oil also rise faster than the general inflation rate over the projection period, largely reflecting increases in crude oil prices. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Selected energy-related production expenses and crude oil prices
Billion dollars (fuel and fertilizer)

Fuel and oil expenses Fertilizer expenses Dollars per barrel (oil price)

Refiner acquisition cost, crude oil imports

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 93 The value of U.S. agricultural exports initially falls from the record levels projected for fiscal year 2011 as prices for major field crops decline from current high levels. Agricultural exports then rise through the remainder of the projections because of increased global economic growth and agricultural demand and a weaker U.S. dollar. Domestic economic growth boosts demand for U.S. agricultural imports. (Fiscal years are October 1 through September 30 and are named after the second calendar year that they span.)

 The value of U.S. agricultural exports is projected to reach a new record exceeding $126 billion in 2011 largely reflecting high commodity prices. With declining prices projected for major crops over the next several years, export values fall through fiscal 2013. Agricultural export values are then projected to grow over the next decade and surpass the 2011 record. A resumption of world economic growth, particularly in developing countries, provides a foundation for increases in global food demand, trade, and U.S. agricultural exports. Continued global biofuel demand also contributes to high commodity prices and gains in export values. Furthermore, a depreciation of the U.S. dollar is an important factor underlying projected gains in U.S. exports.

 The share of U.S. agricultural exports represented by high-value products (HVP) falls in 2011 as high commodity prices boost bulk commodity exports. However, for the remainder of the projection period, HVP exports grow in importance and reach nearly two-thirds of the value of U.S. exports. Much of the growth in HVP exports is for animal products and horticultural products.

 U.S. agricultural import values rise to $122 billion in 2020, boosted by gains in consumer income and demand for a large variety of foods. Strong growth in horticultural imports is assumed to continue, contributing about half of the overall agricultural import increase over the projection period.

 The agricultural trade balance declines from the record surplus of $41 billion projected for 2011, but remains a surplus of about $19 billion at the end of the projection period. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. agricultural trade value

Billion dollars

Exports

Imports

### 94 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 U.S. consumer food prices in 2010 had the smallest annual increase since the 1960s. In particular, the 1.3 percent rise in prices for away-from-home meals was the smallest increase since 1955, partly reflecting promotions to augment otherwise weak demand following the recession.

 Higher food commodity and energy prices will exert pressure on retail food prices into 2011. Additionally, as the economy recovers, retail food prices are projected to rise faster than overall inflation in 2011 and 2012. Over the remainder of the projection period, consumer food prices in the United States rise less than the general inflation rate. This moderation largely reflects production increases in the livestock sector which facilitate gains in per capita meat consumption and limit meat price increases.

 Higher commodity prices for food grains and oil-bearing crops push projected retail prices for cereals and bakery products and for fats and oils up more than the overall inflation rate in the near term. However, in the longer run, prices for these highly processed foods tend to reflect processing and marketing costs, thus keeping their increases near the general rate of inflation.

 Retail price increases for food away from home slowed in 2009 and 2010 as demand weakened due to the recession and the away-from-home food industry used promotions in response. As the economy rebounds, income gains will support growth in food consumption away from home. This factor, along with some linkage to price increases for meat and poultry, suggests that retail prices for food consumed away from home are likely to rise more than the overall rate of inflation over the next several years.

 In the longer run, prices for food away from home largely reflect the overall rate ofinflation. Competition in the fast-food and foodservice industries tends to moderate awayfrom-home price increases, keeping their gains close to the general inflation rate over the rest of the projection period. -1 1 3 5 7

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. food inflation
Percent change

Consumer Price Index (CPI), all items

Food CPI

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 95 The U.S. economic recession reduced consumer sales for meals eaten away from home in 2009. In response, the away-from-home food industry relied heavily on promotions in 2010 to partly offset otherwise continued weak demand.

 As the domestic economy rebounds, food expenditures resume stronger growth. As consumer demand strengthens, expenditures for meals away from home rise faster than expenditures for food at home and account for a growing share of total food spending. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 U.S. food expenditures

Food at home Food away from home Billion dollars

### 96 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 37. Farm receipts, expenses, and income, long-term projections 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Billion dollars Cash receipts: Crops 163.7 171.4 192.8 187.8 182.6 182.3 184.3 186.8 189.9 193.1 195.9 198.5 Livestock and products 119.8 140.6 143.0 1 49.0 153.6 156.3 158.6 161.5 164.5 168.5 172.6 176.6 All commodities 283.4 312.1 335.8 336.9 336.2 338.5 342.8 348.4 354.4 361.6 368.5 375.2 Farm-related income 22.0 21.0 21.1 21.4 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.1 25.6 Government payments 12.3 12.2 10.6 10.3 9.9 8.8 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.4 Gross cash income 317.6 345.2 367.6 368.6 368.0 369.8 374.2 380.2 386.8 394.6 402.0 409.2

Cash expenses 248.5 254.4 271.7 276.1 278.1 281.1 284.9 289.6 295.0 300.6 305.9 311.0 Net cash income 69.1 90.8 95.8 92.6 89.9 88.6 89.3 90.6 91.8 94.0 96.1 98.2

Value of inventory change 4.5 -0.2 5.6 -0.1 0.9 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 Non-money income 21.1 21.7 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.1 27.6 Gross farm income 343.2 366.7 396.3 392.2 393.1 396.5 401.2 407.4 414.4 422.6 430.6 438.4

Noncash expenses 20.8 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.5 23.7 24.0 24.2 Operator dw elling expenses 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 Total production expenses 281.0 287.5 305.4 310.2 312.9 316.4 320.6 325.7 331.5 337.5 343.2 348.7 Net farm income 62.2 79.3 90.9 81.9 80.2 80.0 80.6 81.8 82.9 85.1 87.4 89.7 The projections w ere completed in December 2010.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 97 Table 38. Summary of U.S. agricultural tr ade long-term projections, fiscal years
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Billion dollars Agricultural exports (value): Livestock, dairy, and poultry 18.6 21.5 23.0 22.8 24.2 25.5 26.2 26.8 27.3 28.0 28.9 29.7 Livestock, poultry, and products 16.4 18.2 19.8 19.5 20.7 21.8 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.7 24.4 25.1 Dairy products 2.3 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 Grain and feeds 26.3 27.3 35.4 32.4 29.3 28.2 28.7 29.3 30.2 31.2 32.1 32.8 Coarse grains 10.0 9.8 13.3 12.6 11.5 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.0 Oilseeds and products 20.9 25.4 28.3 27.5 26.3 26.0 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.9 Soybeans and products 17.6 22.1 24.8 23.7 22.5 22.1 22.4 22.8 23.1 23.4 23.6 23.9 Horticultural products 20.6 22.6 24.3 25.3 26.3 27.3 28.3 29.4 30.5 31.7 32.9 34.2 Fruits and vegetables, fresh 5.4 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.5 Fruits and vegetables, processed 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.8 Cotton 3.5 4.8 8.0 6.9 6.3 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3 Other exports 6.3 7.0 7.5 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.0

Total agricultural exports 96.3 108.7 126.5 122.4 120.1 121.1 124.0 127.0 130.3 133.8 137.4 140.9

Bulk commodity exports 36.8 41.0 55.0 50.7 46.2 44.3 44.7 45.2 46.1 46.8 47.7 48.4 High-value product exports 59.5 67.6 71.5 71.6 73.9 76.8 79.3 81.7 84.2 86.9 89.7 92.6 High-value product share 61.8% 62.3% 56.5% 58.5% 61.5% 63.4% 63.9% 64.4% 64.6% 65.0% 65.3% 65.7%

Million metric tons Agricultural exports (volume):

Bulk commodity exports 115.2 128.9 139.5 137.9 135.6 135.1 136.9 138.2 140.5 142.6 144.8 146.9
Billion dollars Livestock, dairy, and poultry 10.7 10.8 11.5 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.7 Livestock and meats 7.6 7.9 8.5 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.5 Dairy products 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Grain and feeds 7.4 7.5 8.2 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 11.8 Grain products 4.5 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.4 Oilseeds and products 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.8 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.3 8.8 Vegetable oils 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.5 Horticultural products 33.0 35.5 38.5 40.8 42.6 44.3 46.2 48.2 50.2 52.3 54.5 56.9 Fruits and vegetables, fresh 10.3 12.0 13.3 14.1 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.3 20.2 Fruits and vegetables, processed 6.9 6.8 7.3 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.6 Wine and beer 7.5 7.7 8.1 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 Sugar and tropical products 15.3 18.3 20.3 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.3 24.1 24.8 25.7 26.5 27.4 Sugar and related products 3.3 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 Cocoa, coffee, and products 7.4 8.6 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.2 Other imports 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Total agricultural imports 73.4 79.0 85.5 90.5 93.9 97.4 101.0 104.9 108.9 113.2 117.6 122.3
Net agricultural trade balance 22.9 29.7 41.0 31.9 26.2 23.7 23.0 22.1 21.4 20.6 19.8 18.6 Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture and Bureau of Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Agricultural imports (value):

U.S. trade value projections were completed in November 2010. For updates of the nearby year forecasts, see USDA's Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report, published in February, May, August, and November. Notes: Other exports includes tobacco, seeds, sugar and tropical pr oducts, and beverages. Bulk commodity exports covers wheat, rice, feed grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. High-value product (HVP) expor ts is calculated as total exports less bulk commodities. HVP's include semiprocessed and processed grains and oilseeds, animals and anim al products, horticultural products, and sugar and tropical pr oducts. Other imports include cotton, tobacco, and planting seeds.

### 98 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 Table 39. Prices received by farmers, selected food commodities, long-term projections CPI category 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Price indexes:

Food commodities 1 128.0 144.0 146.8 151.4 153.4 153.9 154.4 155.3 156.7 158.8 161.0 163.0

Food grains 186.0 177.0 207.3 198.0 188.6 186.8 187.4 189.4 190.0 192.0 192.7 194.8 Oil-bearing crops 177.0 173.0 192.0 188.8 183.4 182.6 183.4 183.4 184.3 184.3 185.2 185.2 Fruit and nuts 135.0 150.0 148.6 150.9 153.2 155.6 158.0 160.4 162.9 165.4 167.9 170.5 Vegetables 2 158.4 164.4 166.2 167.6 169.0 170.4 171.8 173.3 174.7 176.1 177.5 179.0

Meat animals 105.0 124.0 128.4 137.6 142.5 142.1 140.9 140.9 141.8 144.3 147.1 149.9 Dairy products 98.0 125.0 125.0 129.2 130.4 131.9 133.0 134.9 136.5 138.7 141.0 142.6 Poultry and eggs 139.0 151.0 151.4 158.0 163.8 166.9 169.7 171.7 174.0 176.5 178.9 181.4

Changes in price indexes: Percent

Food commodities 1 6.5 12.5 1.9 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.2

Food grains 39.2 -4.8 17.1 -4.5 -4.7 -1.0 0.3 1.1 0.3 1.1 0.4 1.1 Oil-bearing crops 47.4 -2.3 11.0 -1.7 -2.9 -0.4 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 Fruit and nuts -6.3 11.1 -0.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 Vegetables 2 1.5 3.8 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Meat animals -0.8 18.1 3.5 7.2 3.6 -0.3 -0.8 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 Dairy products -4.1 27.6 0.0 3.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.1 Poultry and eggs 7.9 8.6 0.3 4.4 3.7 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1990-92=100

1/ The aggregate price index for food commodities is a w eighted average using NASS relative w eights, w hich are based on average shares of farm cash receipts from 1990 to 1992. 2/ The price index for vegetables is a w eighted average of the index for commercial v egetables and the index for potatoes and dry beans. Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Prices ; Economic Research Service.

### USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 99 Table 40. Consumer food price indexes and food expenditures, long-term projections CPI category 2009 2010 2011 2012 2 013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Consumer price indices

All food 217.955 219.625 225.5 232.0 237.9 243.3 248.7 254.4 260.1 266.2 272.5 279.0

F oo d aw ay f rom h ome 223

. 2 7 2 226

. 114 231

. 1 23 7. 6 244

. 3 2 5 0 .7 2 57. 2 263

. 9 2 7 0

. 8 2 77. 8 28 5. 0 292

. 4

Food at home 215.124 215.836 222.3 228.8 2 34.2 239.1 243.9 248.9 254.0 259.6 265.4 271.3

Meats 200.545 206.232 212.4 222.5 227.9 230.1 231.5 233.4 235.8 239.5 243.4 247.4

Beef and veal 218.273 224.511 231.3 243.3 2 48.5 250.0 250.8 252.1 254.4 258.7 263.6 268.6 Pork 181.366 189.957 196.6 207.0 213.4 216 .0 217.1 219.1 221.3 224.0 226.7 229.4 Other meats 194.901 194.787 198.5 203.7 207. 9 211.4 214.8 218.0 221.3 224.6 228.0 231.4 Poultry 204.220 203.978 209.3 217.3 221.5 223.5 225.1 226.9 229.4 232.6 235.6 238.4 Fish and seafood 240.556 243.229 250.5 258.0 265.7 273.7 281.9 290.4 299.1 308.1 317.3 326.8 Eggs 190.024 192.833 198.6 207.0 217.8 227 .0 236.3 242.4 246.3 250.2 254.2 258.9 Dairy products 197.013 199.245 209.0 214.5 2 18.5 223.0 227.5 232.5 237.0 242.0 247.5 252.5

Fats and oils 201.224 200.587 208.1 212.7 2 17.8 223.2 228.7 234.4 240.1 246.1 252.3 258.5 Fruits and vegetables 272.945 273.458 281.8 287.9 294.9 302.1 309.3 316.7 324.2 331.8 339.6 347.4 Sugar and sw eets 196.933 201.242 206.0 210.4 2 15.1 220.0 225.0 230.0 235.2 240.5 245.9 251.5 Cereals and bakery products 252.567 250.449 257.0 263.4 269.1 275.2 281.9 289 .0 296.4 304.0 311.6 319.6 Nonalcoholic beverages 163.034 161.602 164.0 167 .3 171.5 175.8 180.2 184.7 189.3 194.0 198.9 203.9 Other foods 205.497 204.553 208.3 212.5 217. 6 222.9 228.2 233.6 239.2 245.0 250.9 256.9

Food expenditures:

All food 1,182.0 1,213.6 1,257.2 1,307.0 1,356.7 1,406 .2 1,457.2 1,511.2 1,567.7 1,627.2 1,689.2 1,753.6 Food at home 607.4 622.0 643.7 665.8 684.9 7 03.3 722.1 742.2 763.2 785.8 809.2 833.2 Food aw ay from home 574.5 591.6 613.5 641.2 6 71.8 702.9 735.1 769.0 804.5 841.4 880.0 920.4

Changes in consumer food prices:

All food 1.8 0.8 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4

Food aw ay from home 3.5 1.3 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

Food at home 0.5 0.3 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2

Meats -0.6 2.8 3.0 4.8 2.4 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.6

Beef and veal -1.0 2.9 3.0 5.2 2.1 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.9 Pork -2.0 4.7 3.5 5.3 3.1 1.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 Other meats 2.3 -0.1 1.9 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Poultry 1.7 -0.1 2.6 3.8 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 Fish and seafood 3.6 1.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Eggs -14.7 1.5 3.0 4.2 5.2 4.2 4.1 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 Dairy products -6.4 1.1 4.9 2.6 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.0

Fats and oils 2.3 -0.3 3.7 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 Fruits and vegetables -2.1 0.2 3.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3 Sugar and sw eets 5.6 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 Cereals and bakery products 3.2 -0.8 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 Nonalcoholic beverages 1.9 -0.9 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Other foods 3.7 -0.5 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 1982-84=100

Billion dollars

Percent

### 100 USDA Long-term Projections, February 2011 List of Tables Page Table 1. U.S. macro economic assumptions ....................................................................................... .... 16 Table 2. Global real GD P growth assumptions ................................................................................... .. 17 Table 3. Population gr owth assumptions ........................................................................................ ....... 18 Table 4. Coarse grains tr ade long-term projections ............................................................................ ... 48 Table 5. Corn trade lo ng-term projections ..................................................................................... ....... 49 Table 6. Barley trade long-term projections ................................................................................... ....... 50 Table 7. Sorghum trade long-term pr ojections .................................................................................. .... 51 Table 8. Wheat trade lo ng-term projections .................................................................................... ...... 52 Table 9. Rice trade lo ng-term projections ..................................................................................... ........ 53 Table 10. Soybean trade long-term projections ................................................................................. ...... 54 Table 11. Soybean meal trad e long-term pr ojections ............................................................................ .. 55 Table 12. Soybean oil trad e long-term projections ............................................................................. ..... 55 Table 13. Rapeseed trade long-term pr ojections ................................................................................ ..... 56 Table 14. All cotton trad e long-term pr ojections .............................................................................. ...... 57 Table 15. Beef trade lo ng-term projections .................................................................................... ......... 58 Table 16. Pork trade lo ng-term projections .................................................................................... ......... 58 Table 17. Poultry trade long-term projections ................................................................................. ........ 59 Table 18 Acreage for major field crops and Co nservation Reserve Program (CRP) assumptions, long-term proj ections ..................................................................................................... 69 Table 19. U.S. corn lo ng-term projections ..................................................................................... ......... 70 Table 20. U.S. sorghum long-term pr ojections .................................................................................. ..... 71 Table 21. U.S. barley long-term projections ................................................................................... ........ 72 Table 22. U.S. oats lo ng-term proj ections ..................................................................................... .......... 73 Table 23. U.S. wheat lo ng-term projections .................................................................................... ........ 74 Table 24. U.S. soybeans and pro ducts long-term projections ................................................................. 75 Table 25. U.S. rice long-ter m projections, rough basis ........................................................................ ... 76 Table 26. U.S. upland cott on long-term projections ............................................................................ .... 77 Table 27. U.S. sugar lo ng-term projections .................................................................................... ......... 78 Table 28. Horticultural crops long-term suppl y and use projections, calendar years .............................. 79 Table 29. Horticultural crops long-term expor t and import projections , fiscal years .............................. 80 Table 30. Per capita meat co nsumption, re tail weight .......................................................................... ... 86 Table 31. Beef long -term projections .......................................................................................... ............ 86 Table 32. Pork long -term projections .......................................................................................... ............ 87 Table 33. Young chicken long-term pr ojections ................................................................................. .... 87 Table 34. Turkey long- term projections ........................................................................................ .......... 88 Table 35. Egg long-te rm projections ........................................................................................... ............ 88 Table 36. Dairy long -term projections ......................................................................................... ........... 89 Table 37. Farm receipts, expenses, an d income, long-term projections .................................................. 96 Table 38. Summary of U.S. agricultural trad e long-term projections, fiscal years ................................. 97 Table 39. Prices received by farmers, selected food commodities, long-term projections ..................... 98 Table 40. Consumer food price indexes and f ood expenditures, long-t erm projections ......................... 99