OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY                August 29, 1996
              Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S.
AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is available 2-3 working days following release of this
summary.
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FISCAL 1997 AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST AT $58 BILLION,
FISCAL 1996 UNCHANGED AT $60 BILLION 
 
The fiscal 1997 projection for U.S. agricultural exports is $58 billion, $2
billion lower than the forecast for fiscal 1996, which is unchanged at $60
billion.  Although prices will remain strong, lower expected shipments of
wheat, coarse grains, and cotton will reduce export value for these commodities
by nearly than $4 billion in 1997.  Oilseed exports are projected to increase
$800 million because of higher expected soybean and meal prices and increased
soybean oil shipments.  Livestock, poultry, and horticultural product exports
are expected to gain more than $1 billion.  
 
Tight bulk supplies and increased exports by competitors will reduce major bulk
export volume from 120.2 million tons to 109.1 million in 1997.  Total volume
will decline to 150.5 million tons.
 
U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are projected at a record $32 billion,
$500 million higher than expected in fiscal 1996.  Imports are revised upward
$1 billion to $31.5 billion in 1996 because of increased horticultural and
animal product imports. 
 
The fiscal 1997 agricultural trade surplus is projected at $26 billion, down
$2.5 billion from the revised fiscal 1996 forecast.
 
          Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1992-1997
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                        -- Year ending September 30 -- 
 
         : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal :     Forecast     :  Fiscal 
Item     :  1992  :  1993  :  1994  :  1995  :   Fiscal  1996   :   1997
         :        :        :        :        :   May   :   Aug  : Projected 
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         :                    -- Billion dollars --
         :
Exports  :42.3      42.5     43.5     54.1     60.0      60.0      58.0
         :
Imports  :24.3      24.5     26.4     29.5     30.5      31.5      32.0
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         :
Trade    :
 balance :18.0      18.0     17.1     24.6     29.5      28.5      26.0
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         :                    Million metric tons --
Export   :
 volume  :143.6    146.4    126.8    169.2    160.4     160.0     150.5
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This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the August 12, 1996, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
 
         Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1994-97    
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                            :    October-June   :Fiscal : Fiscal 1996: Fiscal
     Commodity              : 1994/95 : 1995/96 : 1995  :   Forecast :  1997
                            :         :         :       : May : Aug. :Projected
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                            : -- Billion dollars--
 
Grains and feeds 1/         :12.555    16.314    17.637   22.0   21.8    18.7
  Wheat & flour              :3.596     4.923     5.201    6.9    6.9     4.8   
  Rice                       : .820      .773     1.050    1.1    1.1      .9   
  Coarse grains 2/           :5.137     7.430     7.411    9.5    9.5     8.6
    Corn                     :4.559     6.709     6.619    8.6    8.6     7.6   
  Feeds and fodders          :1.893     2.032     2.511    2.9    2.8     2.9
                             :                                     
Oilseeds and products        :7.309     7.757     9.119    9.4    9.6    10.4
  Soybeans                   :4.253     5.159     5.274    6.1    6.2     6.7
  Soybean meal               : .844      .935     1.079    1.1    1.2     1.3
  Soybean oil                : .721      .241      .809     .4     .3      .5
                             :                                     
Livestock products           :5.787     6.291     7.808    8.6    8.7     9.3
  Beef, pork & variety meats :2.904     3.434     4.044    4.7    4.7     5.1
  Hides & skins, incl. furs  :1.297     1.260     1.719    1.6    1.7     1.7
Poultry & products           :1.618     1.996     2.210    2.7    2.7     2.9
Dairy products               : .588      .563      .812     .8     .7      .5
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :1.116     1.173     1.329    1.5    1.4     1.4
                             :
Cotton & linters             :3.126     2.788     3.496    3.0    3.1     2.4
Seeds                        : .560      .586      .680     .7     .7      .7
Horticultural products       :6.956     7.080     9.110    9.4    9.3     9.8
  Fruits & preparations      :2.425     2.454     3.263    3.4    3.3     3.5
  Vegetables & preparations  :2.014     1.865     2.538    2.5    2.4     2.6
  Tree nuts & preparations   : .830     1.008     1.108    1.2    1.3     1.3
Sugar, tropical, and other   :1.451     1.496     1.940    1.9    2.0     2.0
                             :                                     
   Total 3/                  :41.066   46.044    54.141   60.0   60.0    58.0
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         Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1994-97      
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                           : October-June    : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 :  Fiscal 
      Commodity            :1994/95 : 1995/96:  1995  :  Forecast   :   1997
                           :                 :        :  May : Aug  :Projected
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                           : --Million metric tons--
 
Wheat                      :22.907   23.405    32.094   32.0   32.0    25.0
Wheat flour                :  .894     .340     1.184     .5     .5     1.0
Rice                       : 3.017    2.227     3.767    3.0    3.0     2.3
Coarse grains 2/           :47.418   48.125    65.670   61.4   61.1    58.0
   Corn                    :42.085   43.591    58.645   55.5   55.0    51.5
Feeds & fodders            :10.147    9.574    13.483   13.5   12.9    13.0
Oilseeds and products      :27.629   25.066    34.050   30.1   30.8    30.8
  Soybeans                 :19.267   18.557    23.584   22.0   22.4    22.3
  Soybean meal             : 4.800    4.043     6.094    4.9    5.3     5.2
  Soybean oil              : 1.089     .399     1.216     .7     .5      .8
Beef, pork & variety meats :  .912    1.097     1.262    1.5    1.5     1.6
Poultry meat               : 1.373    1.720     1.901    2.3    2.3     2.5
Animal fats                : 1.344    1.148     1.725    1.7    1.6     1.8
Cotton & linters           : 1.863    1.562     2.068    1.7    1.7     1.5
Horticultural products 4/  : 5.470    5.416     7.001    7.2    7.1     7.5
Other                      : 4.071    4.552     4.999    5.5    5.5     5.5
   Total agriculture       :127.045 124.232   169.204  160.4  160.0   150.5
   Major bulk products 5/  : 94.472  93.876   127.183  120.1  120.2   109.1
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 1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.  4/ Products measured
in liters not included.  5/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and
cotton.
 
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