GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 

GLOBAL RENEWABLE 

ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK 

2013

FACT PACK

APRIL 23, 2013

GUY TURNER

HEAD OF ECONOMICS AND COMMODITIES
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 2 / / / /

INTRODUCTION

• This year’s Global Renewable Energy Market Outlook updates our previous long term projections of the clean 

energy markets published in November 2011 (Exec Summary: bnef.com/WhitePapers/download/53). 

• The analysis uses the same analytical framework - BNEF’s Global Energy and Emissions Model (GE2M) – but 

is updated in a number of ways. 

• This year three scenarios have been created to show a range of possible future outcomes for the clean energy 

market - New Normal, Barrier Busting and Traditional Territory. These scenarios create three different views of 

how the world’s energy system will evolve based on assumptions around technology costs, economic 

prosperity, policy ambitions and investment in grid infrastructure. 

• The analysis has been updated to include the latest trends and forecasts in fuel prices, GDP, population, 

technology costs and energy and environmental policies – in particular, projections of world coal prices and 

future clean energy costs have both come down since our last analysis.

• The future demand for rooftop PV has been analysed in considerably more detail using consumer adoption 

principles. This takes into account local demographics, solar radiation levels and patterns in consumer 

investment decisions. This is done across 84 separate economic regions. 

• Technology costs are now differentiated in more detail by country, taking into account local prices for land, 

labour and equipment prices. In particular the Chinese market has been analysed in more detail using a Chinaspecific technology adoption model.

• Grid constraints are more comprehensively taken into account by adjusting the return on investment for certain 

types of distributed technologies.
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 3 / / / /

• World economy remains subdued: real 

GDP CAGR 2.2%

• Cheap fossil fuels – shale gas 

expands rapidly lowering international 

gas and coal prices.

• Moderate environmental concerns 

largely appeased by more use of gas.

• Main energy investments goes into 

trusted technologies of gas and coal 

and nuclear.

• Supportive policies for new energy 

technologies weaken.

• Grid investments focus on maintaining 

existing centralised infrastructure

THREE FUTURE SCENARIOS 

• Economic hangover continues: real 

GDP CAGR 2.7%.

• Rising demand for energy from 

developing countries outstrips supply –

prices of fossil fuels rise.

• Environmental concerns remain at 

current levels – no major 

breakthroughs but carbon prices from 

current policies rise in the EU and 

Australia.

• Current clean energy policies 

expected to run course to 2020 then 

mostly taken over by carbon prices in 

key countries.

• Steady investment in grid to 

accommodate moderate new 

distributed technologies.

• World economic growth recovers to 

trend of past 20 years: real GDP 

CAGR 3.6%.

• Demand puts pressure on fossil 

prices. Fossil fuels and carbon prices 

remain expensive.

• Environmental concerns heightened -

stronger policy coordination; carbon 

priced in China and US.

• Unit costs of generation technologies 

are the same as in NN scenario. 

• Strong investment in grid 

technologies and progress in storage 

technologies.

• Breakthrough in second generation 

biofuel technology.

BARRIER BUSTING

The emphasis in the scenarios is to explore the effects of technical and economic barriers to 

renewables, rather than other drivers such as policy decisions. 

TRADITIONAL TERRITORY NEW NORMAL
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 4 / / / /

NEW NORMAL: CUMULATIVE INSTALLED POWER GENERATION CAPACITY

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

In the NN scenario by 2030 

renewables (including hydro) will 

account for 48% of total power 

generation capacity installed around 

the world, up from 28% in 2012.

Wind and solar continue to dominate. 

Wind (on and offshore) rises from 5% 

in 2012 to 17% of installed capacity by 

2030, overtaking large-hydro. Starting 

from a lower base, solar PV capacity 

grows from 2% in 2012 16% by 2030. 

Less variable renewables such as 

marine, geothermal and solar thermal 

make a lesser contribution due to their 

higher costs. 

Fossil-fuel generation capacity grows 

slightly in absolute terms in all 

scenarios, but its relative contribution 

falls from 67% in 2012 to 40-45% by 

2030. Nuclear’s share remains steady 

at around 6%.

By 2030 renewables will account for 50% of installed power generation capacity

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Marine

Solar thermal

Small-scale PV

Solar PV

Offshore wind

Wind

EfW

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Note: EfW is energy from waste Small-scale PV includes commercial and residential scale rooftop PV. 

GW
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 5 / / / /

CUMULATIVE INSTALLED GENERATION CAPACITY, 2030 

Note: Small-scale PV includes commercial and residential scale rooftop PV. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

The share of “new renewables” of installed power capacity varies between 33% and 39% 

in 2030 across the TT and BB scenarios

36%

23% 23% 21%

23%

17% 16% 14%

7%

5% 5% 6%

7%

6% 6% 6%

18%

15% 14% 14%

2%

2% 2% 2%

5%

15% 15% 16%

1% 2%

6% 6% 6%

8% 10% 11%

2012 2030:

Traditional Territory

2030:

New Normal

2030:

Barrier Busting

Marine

Solar thermal

Small-scale PV

Solar PV

Offshore wind

Wind

EfW

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

5,149 GW 9,308 GW 9,828 GW 10,493 GW

scenario

In the BB scenario the share of 

renewables, including hydro, in 

power generation capacity rises 

to 53% from 50% in the NN 

scenario – a relative increase of 

5%. The share of “new” 

renewables (ie excluding hydro) 

increases to 39% from 36% in 

the NN scenario – a relative 

increase of 10%.

In the TT scenario the share of 

renewables, including hydro, in 

power generation capacity 

reduces to 48% from 50% in the 

NN scenario – a relative 

contraction of 4%. The share of 

“new” renewables (ie excluding 

hydro) reduces to 33% – a 

decline of 8%.
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 6 / / / /

ADDITIONS TO POWER GENERATION CAPACITY 2013 TO 2030 (NEW NORMAL)

Note: EfW is energy from waste Small-scale PV includes commercial and residential scale rooftop PV. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Renewables will account for 70% of the new power generation capacity added to 2030

Globally 70% of the new power 

generation capacity added between 

2012 and 2030 will be from renewable 

technologies - the IEA’s New Policies 

scenario projects 57% of new power 

capacity to 2030 will be in the form of 

renewable technologies.

Solar PV and wind will comprise the 

largest share of new power capacity 

added to 2030, accounting for 30% 

and 27% respectively.

As the cost of wind and solar falls and 

carbon prices and other environmental 

controls, increase the cost of fossil 

fuels in certain countries, new coal 

and gas capacity become less 

attractive, comprising only 25% of 

capacity additions to 2030.

Nuclear also sees something of a 

renaissance but this is limited to 5-6% 

of total new capacity added to 2030. 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Marine

Solar thermal

Small-scale PV

Solar PV

Offshore wind

Wind

EfW

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

GW
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 7 / / / /

TOTAL RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION CAPACITY - SCENARIO 

COMPARISON

Note: Renewable energy includes wind, solar, biomass, energy from waste, geothermal.

We expect cumulative RE capacity 

to reach 3,500GW in 2030 under 

our New Normal scenario, up 25% 

from our 2011 estimate of 

2,800GW. 

This change in forecast is driven by 

a number of factors including:

• Faster declines in unit costs of 

clean energy technologies

• Greater take up these 

technologies in regions that have 

higher overall installation costs, but 

where it is still cost effective to 

develop the asset (eg Middle East)

• Lower coal prices – this increases 

the price of carbon in regions with 

high gas prices and firm climate 

policies, eg Europe

Our 2013 forecasts for renewable power generation capacity are higher than our 2011 

forecast and higher than the IEA’s last projection

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Barrier Busting

New Normal

Traditional Territory

BNEF 2011

IEA New Policies

GW
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 8 / / / /

CUMULATIVE ADDITIONAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY 2013 – 2030

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

The share of “new renewables” in capacity additions to the power sector to 2030 varies 

between 58% and 66% across the TT and BB scenarios

The share of renewables, 

including hydro, in new 

capacity additions in the power 

sector up to 2030 increases to 

75% in the BB scenario (from 

70% in the NN scenario).

Excluding hydro, the share of 

renewables in new capacity 

additions up to 2030, increases 

to 66% (from 60% in the NN 

scenario).

Under the TT scenario the 

share of renewables in new 

capacity additions to falls, but 

not by much, to 69% including 

hydro, or 58% excluding hydro.

The share of build between the 

three scenarios does not 

change significantly.

40%

10% 12% 11%

13%

11% 9% 7%

5%

4% 3%

3%

6% 6%

5%

17%

11% 10%

9%

2%

2% 2%

3%

15%

25% 24%

26%

2% 3% 3%

2%

12% 11% 12%

4%

15% 18% 20%

2012 2030:

Traditional Territory

2030:

New Normal

2030:

Barrier Busting

Marine

Solar thermal

Small-scale PV

Solar PV

Offshore wind

Wind

EfW

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

1,448 GW 4,457 GW 5,056 GW 5,651 GW

Note: EfW is energy from waste Small-scale PV includes commercial and residential scale rooftop PV. 

scenario
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 9 / / / /

POWER GENERATION OUTPUT, 2013-2030

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Generation from renewable sources 

will increase from 22% in 2012 up to 

36% in 2030 under our New Normal 

scenario. This is lower than installed 

capacity because renewables 

(excluding large hydro) have lower 

load factors than traditional thermal 

technologies. 

By 2030 wind accounts for 12% of 

generation and solar PV 6%. Largehydro remains the dominant form of 

clean energy production to 2030.

Gas-fired generation remains steady 

at 17-18% under our Traditional 

Territory scenario, but falls to 13% in 

our high gas price Barrier Busting 

scenario.

Coal-fired electricity generation falls 

in all scenarios as it becomes 

displaced by generation from new 

wind and solar plants with lower 

running costs.

Large hydro will continue to generate the most power of the clean technologies to 2030

46%

36% 35% 33%

18%

17% 15% 13%

13%

13% 13%

13%

16%

15%

15%

14%

3%

4%

4% 5%

3%

8% 9% 11%

2% 2% 2%

2% 3% 4%

2012 2030:

Traditional Territory

2030:

New Normal

2030:

Barrier Busting

Marine

Solar thermal

Small scale PV

Solar PV

Offshore wind

Wind

EfW

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

20,725 TWh 32,656 TWh 34,170 TWh 35,541 TWh

Note: EfW is energy from waste Small-scale PV includes commercial and residential scale rooftop PV. 

scenario
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 10 / / / /

POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ASSET FINANCE (NEW NORMAL)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

73% of total investment in power generation to 2030 will be directed to renewables

Under our NN scenario, investment 

in power generation assets will 

reach $790bn a year by 2030 and 

$11 trillion cumulatively from 2013.

Around $8.2 trillion or 73% of total 

asset finance to 2030 will be spent 

on renewable energy including 

large hydro.

Capital intensive renewable energy 

technologies such as offshore wind 

and solar thermal are more visible 

here as each MW installed has 

higher cost. The high capital costs 

of nuclear facilities also raise the 

share of financing required by the 

nuclear sector.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Marine

Solar thermal

Small-scale PV

Solar PV

Offshore wind

Wind

EfW

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Note: 

1. All $bn figures are nominal assuming a 2% annual rate of inflation

2. EfW is energy from waste Small-scale PV includes commercial and residential scale rooftop PV. 

$bn (nominal)
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 11 / / / /

CUMULATIVE POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ASSET FINANCE 2013 TO 2030

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Under the NN scenario, annual 

investment in renewable energy 

power assets will rise to $454bn in 

2030, with solar PV and wind energy 

attracting the majority of investment.

Solar PV will attract between 23% 

and 25% of asset finance worth over 

$3.2 trillion in our Barrier Busting 

scenario. Just under two thirds of this 

is directed to roof-top deployment. 

Wind energy investment grows in all 

scenarios attracting between $2.3 

trillion to 2030 under our Traditional 

Territory scenario and $3.3 trillionin

our Barrier Busting scenario. Just 

over a quarter of which is offshore 

wind under BB and NN.

Investment in geothermal, marine, 

ands solar thermal remain small in 

comparison. 

Power generation assets will need over $11 trillion of capital to 2030. Half of this will be 

spent on wind and solar

36%

8% 10% 8%

5%

4% 3% 2%

4%

14% 13% 13%

17%

14% 12%

11%

5%

6% 6% 8%

2% 3% 2%

14%

20% 18% 19%

4% 7% 7%

5%

9% 9% 9%

11% 14% 15% 16%

2006-2012 2030:

Traditional Territory

2030:

New Normal

2030:

Barrier Busting

Marine

Solar thermal

Small-scale PV

Solar PV

Offshore wind

Wind

EfW

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

$2,303 bn $9,625 bn $11,257 bn $12,855 bn

scenario Note: 

1. All $bn figures are nominal assuming a 2% annual rate of inflation

2. EfW is energy from waste Small-scale PV includes commercial and residential scale rooftop PV. 
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 12 / / / /

ANNUAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT TO 2030 – NEW NORMAL

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Total investment in clean energy assets, including power, biofuels and heat, will reach 

$630bn by 2030 (nominal)

Annual investment in all clean 

energy assets will increase from 

$189bn in 2012 to $630bn in 2030. 

Cumulatively this will require some 

$7.6trillion of finance over the 

period 2013 to 2030.

90% of this capital will be needed 

in the power sector, with the 

remaining 10% distributed broadly 

equally between biofuels and 

renewable heating.

Note: 

1. All $bn figures are nominal assuming a 2% annual rate of inflation

2. EfW is energy from waste Small-scale PV includes commercial and residential scale rooftop PV. 

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Marine

Solar thermal

Small-scale PV

Solar PV

Heating

Offshore wind

Wind

Geothermal

EfW

Biomass

Biofuels

$bn (nominal)
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 13 / / / /

RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS 

Cumulative requirement for capital 

from 2012 to 2030 is up 18% at 

$7.6tr. This is equivalent to a 

compound annual growth rate of 

6.7% in nominal terms.

The Barrier Busting scenario sees 

investment in clean energy assets 

grow to $880bn by 2030 ($9.3 trillion 

cumulatively). This would require an 

additional $2 trillion invested in 

supporting infrastructure such as 

long distance transmission systems, 

smart grids, storage and demand 

response.

Weaker climate policies and a more 

subdued economic outlook sees 

only $470bn invested in our 

Traditional Territory scenario in 2030 

with an annual compound growth 

rate of 4.8% nominal.

Renewable energy investment could vary between $470bn and $880bn in 2030 

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Barrier Busting

New Normal

BNEF 2011

Traditional 

Territory

Note: Renewable energy includes wind, solar, biomass, energy from waste, geothermal. biofuels, heat.

$bn (nominal)
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 14 / / / /

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

ANNUAL BIOFUEL CONSUMPTION, 2013-2030

Global biofuel production increases 

by around 200% to 2030 in our New 

Normal scenario from 120bn litres to 

370bn litres in 2030.

The most rapid growth is in second 

generation biodiesel and ethanol 

which make up 41% of global 

consumption in our New Normal and 

53% in our Barrier Busting scenario 

to 2030.

Global biofuel production to increase by 200% to 373bnL in 2030

Million litres/year

scenario

76,202 

133,935 154,020 172,501 54,332 

60,617 

65,928 68,215 

- 

42,292 

93,901 

157,613 

28,966 

59,008 

114,506 

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2012 2030:

Traditional

Territory

2030:

New Normal

2030:

Barrier Busting

2G

Biodiesel

2G

Ethanol

1G

Biodiesel

1G

Ethanol

131 bn litres

266 bn litres

373 bn litres

513 bn litres
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 15 / / / /

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND

In the NN scenario renewable energy TWh Mtoe

(including large hydro and traditional 

biomass) increases its share of world 

primary energy demand by a third 

from 21% in 2012 to 28% by 2030. 

The share of fossil fuels is expected 

to reduce from 78% in 2012 to 72% 

under the NN scenario. In the BB 

scenario the share of renewable 

energy (including large hydro and 

traditional biomass) in world primary 

energy demand increases to 30% . 

In the TT scenario renewable energy 

(including large-hydro and traditional 

biomass) accounts for only 26% of 

world primary energy demand. 

New renewable technologies of wind, 

solar, bio-energy, geothermal and 

marine is expected to increase from 

3% in 2012 to as much as 10% under 

the BB scenario. 

Renewable energy rises to 28% of TPED by 2030 up from 21% in 2012

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Renewable

Energy

(excl. hydro)

Hydro

Nuclear

Traditional

biomass

Fossil

IEA WEO

2012
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 16 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 

APPENDIX

METHODOLOGY AND 

ASSUMPTIONS
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 17 / / / /

METHODOLOGY

• The analysis uses BNEF’s Global Energy and Emissions Model (GE2M) – a partial equilibrium model of the 

world energy system. The model is based on detailed country and sector analyses incorporating real world 

constraints as well as modelled outputs..

• The model is structured around three time periods: 

• Short term (to c.2016) in which build forecasts are based on known development pipelines as determined by BNEF sector 

experts around the world; 

• Medium term (to c.2020) in which build rates for clean energy technologies are strongly determined by policy goals and 

BNEF’s judgment of these goals being met or exceeded;

• Long term (to 2030) in which build rates are modelled economically based on an investment decision framework.

• The investment decision analysis determines the demand for energy (based on economic, demographic and 

technological trends), and which technologies will be built to meet that need. The model builds more of the 

cheaper technologies, where costs are those seen by project developers and determined on an “levelised cost” 

basis.

• In the power system, the costs of maintaining / upgrading the network and ensuring reliability of supply 

demand are borne by the tax payer or electricity user – they are not attributed to individual projects or 

technologies. This means that renewable technologies do not bear the costs of managing intermittency. 

• The levelised costs of power technologies are projected to 2030 using BNEF analysis of technology 

experience curves and assumptions on future fuel prices and resource curves (for renewable technologies).

• Policy goals are varied in the three scenarios, but in all three scenarios it is assumed that no technology 

specific support mechanisms are in place post 2020. In countries or regions with climate policies 
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 18 / / / /

Gas prices are assumed to rise in 

the US to $6/MMBtu by 2030 (NN 

scenario).

European gas prices remain above 

US prices and stabilise around 

$9/MMBtu (NN scenario).

In China gas prices are higher than 

in Europe being linked to the Asian 

LNG market. Prices rise up to 2020 

but then fall to 2030 towards 

$11/MMBtu (NN scenario).

Gas price s differ across the three 

scenarios as a result of differences 

in economic activity and local 

demand for gas. 

$/MMBtu (real)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

US TT

US NN

US BB

China TT

China NN

China BB

Europe TT

Europe NN

Europe BB

GAS PRICES
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 19 / / / /

Carbon prices are derived from 

BNEF’s proprietary long-term 

fundamental analysis of the world’s 

carbon markets.

The NN scenario assumes existing 

and currently proposed carbon 

markets in EU, Australia & South 

Korea continue as planned.

The BB scenario assumes domestic 

carbon pricing mechanisms are 

implemented in China and the US. 

There is no change to the carbon 

prices for Europe, Australia and S 

Korea in the NN scenario. 

In the TT scenario Australia repeals 

its carbon price leaving only Europe 

with a carbon price under the current 

legislation. 

$/tCO2 (nominal)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Note: prices in Europe are strongly driven by the cost of fuel switching between coal and gas generation. 

This is currently > $50/tCO2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

US BB

China BB

Europe TT

Europe NN

Europe BB

CARBON PRICES
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 20 / / / /

309

442

574

306

360

432

4 7 5 6 6 7

132

166

190

TT NN BB TT NN BB TT NN BB TT NN BB

Transmission 

additions ($bn)

Smart grid 

investment ($bn)

Demand response 

additions ($bn)

Storage ($bn)

Expenditure $bn (2013-2030) Power infrastructure expenditure 

split into: transmission additions, 

smart grid, demand response and 

storage.

Expenditure on power infrastructure 

differs under the three scenarios.

Transmission systems and smart 

grid schemes account for the 

majority of expenditure. Demand 

response requires relatively upfront 

capital.

Storage systems include pumped 

hydro and batteries. The cost of 

battery systems is projected to fall 

more rapidly in the BB scenario.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

POWER INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 21 / / / /

The levelised cost of generating 

power from wind (onshore) falls 

35% in real terms between 2012 and 

2030 as innovation and economies 

of scale drive down costs.

In some geographies the LCOE from 

new build wind energy at high 

quality sites is already cheaper than 

new build coal- or gas-fired 

electricity without subsidy.

Fuel price and carbon risk pushes 

the cost of new gas- and coal-fired 

generation higher.. 

Projected carbon prices in Europe 

and Australia make it more 

economical to invest in new wind 

than gas and coal capacity.

Note: Global average LCOEs calculated from BNEF forecast LCOEs in Europe, China, and US. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY - WIND

$/MWh

EU CCGT

US CCGT

EU CCGT + 

Carbon

US coal

EU coal + carbon

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 22 / / / /

Utility-scale solar PV is not yet cost 

competitive with new-build coal- and 

gas-fired generation in most 

geographies. 

The levelised cost of generating 

power from solar PV however is 

expected to fall by 30-40% in real 

terms between 2012 and 2030.

This cost reduction makes large 

solar PV arrays competitive in 

markets with carbon pricing this 

decade. 

By 2020 solar energy from high 

insolation utility-scale facilities will 

fall to around $80/MWh – roughly 

the cost of high quality wind in 2012. 

$/MWh

Note: Global average LCOEs calculated from BNEF forecast LCOEs in Europe, China, and US. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY - SOLAR

US CCGT

EU CCGT + 

Carbon

US coal

EU coal + carbon

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 23 / / / /

BEYOND THE NEW NORMAL...

Note: includes repowering wind build in Europe.

% of total 

electrical consumption

% of total 

electrical consumption

S-Curve and 

derivative fitted to 

New Normal 

New Normal forecast

development path

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 23 APRIL 2013 24 / / / /

COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER

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The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are 

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