Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

September 2014 (Experimental) 

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Gulf of Maine Region

September 2014

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=F2BDD611

#regionalclimateoutlooks

 Gulf of Maine Significant Events - for June–August 2014

Precipitation Sea Surface Temperatures

Regional Climate Overview - for June 1–August 31, 2014

Rounds of heavy rain occurred throughout the region in June. New Brunswick 

saw 50–80 mm (2–3 in.) of rain from June 5–7, with the highest total of 95 

mm (3.75 in.) in Grand Manan. From June 25–26, parts of Maine and New 

Hampshire saw up to 118 mm (4.66 in.) of rain, which caused flash flooding. 

Several consecutive days of heat and high humidity occurred in late June and 

early July. Heat warnings were in place for New Brunswick for up to a week. 

On July 2, Miramichi, NB, set a daily record high of 34.5°C (94°F), and Caribou, 

ME, tied its all-time warmest low temperature of 21.7°C (71°F). In addition, 

Caraquet, NB, had its warmest July on record (since 1889). 

Hurricane Arthur moved through the region on July 4–6. New Brunswick, 

eastern Maine, and coastal Massachusetts saw heavy rain, with many sites 

exceeding 100 mm (3.94 in.). The greatest total was reported at Upsalquitch 

Lake, NB, at 192 mm (7.56 in.). Wind gusts exceeded 90 km/h (56 mph) at 

nearly 30 locations in the Maritimes, with a max gust of 138 km/h (86 mph) in 

Greenwood, NS. See the Regional Impacts section on the next page for details. 

Straight line winds of up to 161 km/h (100 mph) damaged hundreds of trees 

in Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts in early and mid-July. An EF-1 

tornado caused damage in Somerset County, ME, on July 15, and another EF-1 

tornado occurred in York County, ME, on July 28. Also on the 28th, an EF-2 

tornado touched down in Suffolk County, MA, making it the first tornado to 

strike the county since records began in 1950. 

Due to dry conditions in much of Nova Scotia, the area burned by forest fires 

this summer was more than twice the recent 5-year average (but less than the 

10-year average). New Brunswick had wet conditions, and the area burned by 

forest fires was about half the recent 5-year and 10-year averages. Abnormally 

dry conditions persisted through summer in parts of Massachusetts. 

Sea surface temperatures during summer 

were generally warmer than normal. Warm 

anomalies of +0.5°C (+0.9°F) to +1.0°C (+1.8°F) 

dominated the Scotian Shelf, the Bay of Fundy, 

and the Gulf of Maine. The warmest anomalies 

of around +1.5°C (+2.7°F) were located along 

the inshore portion of the southern Scotian 

Shelf. The warm anomalies were weakest 

over the deeper waters of Jordan Basin and 

the shallow waters of Georges Bank. The 

exceptions to this warm pattern were in 

Massachusetts Bay and directly east of Cape 

Cod, with cold anomalies of around -0.5°C 

(-0.9°F). The regions of cold anomalies and 

weak warm anomalies were primarily a result 

of cooler conditions in July and August.

Summer temperatures were near normal 

in Massachusetts and New Hampshire, but 

were up to 2.0°C (3.6°F) above normal in parts 

of Maine. The Maritimes were 1.0°C (1.8°F) 

to 3°C (5.4°F) warmer than normal. June 

temperatures ranged from near normal to 2°C 

(3.6°F) above normal. July was a little warmer, 

with temperatures up to 3°C (5.4°F) above 

normal. Temperatures varied greatly in August. 

Much of Massachusetts and New Hampshire 

were 0.5°C (0.9°F) to 2°C (3.6°F) cooler than 

normal. Maine’s temperatures ranged from 

2°C (3.6°F) below normal to 2.0°C (3.6°F) 

above normal. In the Maritimes, temperatures 

generally ranged from 1.0°C (1.8°F) below 

normal to 1.0°C (1.8°F) above normal.

Sea surface temperature anomalies based on 1985–2014. 

Mean SST anomalies from NOAA AVHRR data. Credit: 

University of Maine School of Marine Sciences and NERACOOS

Temperature

Extreme rainfall set 

records and caused 

flash flooding in 

mid-August in parts 

of the region. 

Extreme rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of the region on 

August 13–14. Portland, ME, had 163 mm (6.43 in.) of rain on the 

13th, making it the greatest daily precipitation for any calendar day 

that was non-tropical based. The site saw 65 mm (2.57 in.) of rain 

from 9 p.m. to 10 p.m., setting a new hourly record. Another 42 

mm (1.64 in.) of rain fell from 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. The consecutive 

two-hour rain total of 107 mm (4.21 in.) also set a record. New 

Brunswick saw up to 111 mm (4.37 in.) of rain. In southern Maine, 

the runoff overwhelmed sewer systems, prompting the closure of 

some clam flats and beaches due to potentially contaminated water.

In early July, Hurricane 

Arthur’s high winds caused 

power outages regionwide, while its heavy 

rain triggered some flash 

flooding in parts of New 

Brunswick, Maine, and 

Massachusetts.

During summer, the region saw 50–200% of 

normal rainfall. Massachusetts, northwestern 

New Brunswick, and northern Nova Scotia 

were drier than normal. Most of Maine, New 

Hampshire, and New Brunswick were wetter 

than normal. Precipitation was highly variable 

in June, ranging from 25% to 225% of normal. 

The driest areas were in Massachusetts and 

southern New Hampshire, while the wettest 

areas were in southern New Brunswick and 

western Nova Scotia. In July, the U.S. and 

New Brunswick saw 150–300% of normal 

rainfall due in part to Hurricane Arthur. The 

three states ranked this July among their 

top 15 wettest. Southern Nova Scotia saw 

near-normal rainfall, but northern areas saw 

25–75% of normal. In August, much of the 

region saw 25-110% of normal precipitation; 

however, portions of southern coastal Maine 

saw up to 275% of normal.

Departure from Normal

Temperature and precipitation normals based on 1981–2010. 

Canada and ocean precip data: Canadian Precipitation Analysis.

U.S. precip data: interpolated station data.

Percent of Normal Departure from Normal
Regional Impacts - for June–August 2014

Regional Outlook - for Fall 2014 Gulf of Maine Region Partners

Environment Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

NOAA Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

Northeast River Forecast Center

www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Regional Climate Services

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/rcsd

Gulf of Maine Research Institute

www.gmri.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region

www.cinar.org

Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment, Climate 

Network

www.gulfofmaine.org/climatenetwork

Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal and Ocean 

Systems

www.neracoos.org

University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences

www.umaine.edu/marine

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Contacts

NOAA:

Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Samantha Borisoff (samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu)

Environment Canada:

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

819-997-2800 (long-distance charges apply)

enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca 

This is a new publication designed to help others understand 

climate trends and their impacts. We welcome your feedback.

Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

September 2014 (Experimental) 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=F2BDD611

Temperature

While some warming of the tropical Pacific 

Ocean waters did occur in August, El Niño 

conditions remained neutral as of early 

September. However, model forecasts 

continue to predict El Niño development. 

According to NOAA, “El Niño is favored to 

emerge during September–October, and to 

peak at weak strength during the late fall and 

early winter.” There is a 60–65% chance of 

El Niño development during fall and winter. 

(Sources: Climate Prediction Center El Niño forecast 

and El Niño blog) 

Environment 

Canada and NOAA’s 

Climate Prediction 

Center are both 

calling for an 

increased likelihood 

of above-normal 

temperatures for the Gulf of Maine region for 

September through November. The forecast 

for above-normal temperatures is supported 

by climate models. In addition, sea surface 

temperatures around the Maritimes and in the 

Gulf of Maine are warmer than normal, which 

will help maintain warm conditions on land.

Ocean Acidification

This spring, Maine became the first U.S. East Coast state to pass an ocean acidification bill into law. 

The law formed the Maine Ocean Acidification Committee, which held its first meeting on August 

1. The group will study and address the effects of ocean acidification on Maine’s environment and 

economy. Ocean acidification occurs when carbon dioxide in the air dissolves into seawater, creating 

carbonic acid and lowering the water’s pH (making it more acidic). Higher acidity can inhibit shell 

growth in organisms such as lobsters, clams, oysters, etc. In addition, higher acidity makes it difficult 

for corals to build skeletons. The committee will report its findings in December. (Sources: Portland 

Press Herald, June 27 and Gulf of Maine Research Institute)

A: Above-normal 

40: Probability 

of above-normal 

temperatures

Above: Total precipitation (mm) on July 4-6 from 

Arthur. Below: Uprooted elm tree and downed 

power lines in Fredericton, NB, on July 6. Credit: 

Rick Fleetwood

Probability of above-normal A

Hurricane Arthur

Arthur made its Canadian landfall in western Nova Scotia as a near-hurricane strength post-tropical 

cyclone on July 5. The maximum sustained winds of near 110 km/h (68 mph) downed trees and 

power lines across the Maritimes. Nearly 200,000 customers lost power in New Brunswick, making 

it the largest blackout in the province’s history. Around 245,000 customers lost power in Nova 

Scotia, making it the most severe storm for the province since Hurricane Juan in 2003. Most areas 

had power restored within several days, but a few spots did not have power for a week or more. 

Arthur‘s winds made apple orchards in the Maritimes more susceptible to fire blight, a bacterial 

infection. Over 90% of apple orchards in Nova Scotia were affected, with many young trees badly 

damaged. In addition, the storm’s heavy rain caused some flash flooding and infrastructure damage. 

Provincial government offices in Fredericton were closed for a day. (Sources: CBC News, July 14 and 

September 3)

Invasive Species

Invasive green crab populations in the Gulf of Maine soared in 2012 and 2013 with record warm 

water temperatures. Comparatively fewer green crabs were found in Maine in 2014, likely due to 

cooler water temperatures along the coast during the 2013-2014 winter. However, crab populations 

in Massachusetts rebounded by July. Green crabs feed on soft-shell clams, one of Maine’s major 

commercial fisheries, and eelgrass, which acts as a nursery for many marine species. With climate 

change expected to further warm Gulf waters, scientists anticipate further increases in the green 

crab population. (Sources: Bangor Daily News, August 14 and Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries)

NOAA’s updated Atlantic hurricane season 

outlook, released on August 7, calls for a 70% 

chance of a below-normal season. The initial 

outlook from May called for a 50% chance of 

a below-normal season. The updated outlook, 

which includes hurricanes Arthur and Bertha, 

predicts 7–12 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, 

and 0–2 major hurricanes. In comparison, the 

May outlook predicted 8–13 named storms, 

3–6 hurricanes, and 1–2 major hurricanes. The 

outlook changes are due to the development 

of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that 

inhibit storm formation, the expectation that 

unfavorable conditions will persist through the 

season, and the likely development of El Niño.

(Source: Climate Prediction Center Hurricane 

Outlook)

Atlantic Hurricane Season

El Niño 

Precipitation Environment Canada and NOAA’s Climate 

Prediction Center are both predicting equal 

chances of above-, near-, or below-normal 

precipitation for September–November. 

Environment Canada 

map (above) produced 40

on August 31. Climate 

Prediction Center map 

(right) produced on 

August 21.