COVER 

On the date for Iben Browning's predicted earthquake-December 3, 1990-local horseback riders wait by the Mississippi River's levee at New Madrid and, with amazement, 

watch the activity surrounding satellite transmission trucks. Photo by Todd Wilson (Standard Democrat, Sikeston, Mo.). 

ABOUT THIS REPORT 

Iben Browning predicted that a major earthquake would strike the region of New Madrid, 

Mo., on about December 3, 1990. Although nearly all seismologists rejected Browning's 

prediction, it was so well publicized that public agitation rose to serious levels. This report 

tells how this earthquake prediction became credible to many members of the media, 

emergency preparedness personnel, and the general public. Appendixes to the report 

include many press clippings, some of Browning's work, and other material pertaining to 

this episode. 
RESPONSES TO IBEN BROWNING'S 

PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, 

MISSOURI, EARTHQUAKE 
D lbcn Browning is a remarkable man. His track 

• r:ecord of documented projections .related to 

• e geological activities is truly incredible. These 

include the eruption of Mount St. Helens, the devastating 

Novado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia and, most recently, 

Or, if you· prefer, ::;ou may purchase the comple.te 100 I 

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the 1989 earthquake in San Fmncisco. -------------- His accuracy 1s of great importance to i4 He is, perhaps, the most 

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projecting a major earthquake on the· - Dr. David Stewart, Carter for Eanl~fuake 

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Decemb"er 3, ·1990. 

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It was in this interview that Dr. Browning made his 

detailed projection of the December 3, t990 New Madrid 

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Advertisement for videos of interview with Iben Browning, in which he spoke of the 50-50 chance of a New 

Madrid earthquake on December 3, 1990. This advertisement ran in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Conunercial 

Appeal, and other regional newspapers. 
Responses to lben Browning's 

Prediction of a 1990 

New Madrid, Missouri, 

Earthquake 

By WILLIAM SPENCE, ROBERT B. HERRMANN, 

ARCH C. JOHNSTON, and GLEN REAGOR 

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CIRCULAR 1083 

UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE, WASHINGTON : 1993 
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 

BRUCE BABBITT, Secretary 

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY 

Dallas L. Peck, Director 

Free on application to 

USGS Map Distribution 

Box 25286, Building 810 

Denver Federal Center 

Denver, CO 80225 

Any use of trade, product, or finn names in this publication is for descriptive purposes only and 

does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. 

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data 

Responses to Iben Browning's prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, earthquake I by 

William Spence ... [et al.]. 

p. cm.-(U.S. Geological Survey circular; 1083) 

Includes bibliographical references. 

Supt. of Docs. no.: I 19.4/2:1083 

1. Earthquakes-Missouri-New Madrid Region. 2. Earthquake predictionMissouri-New Madrid Region. 

I. Spence, William, 1937-. II. Series. 

QE535.2.U6R47 1994 

363.3' 495'09778985-dc20 93-7253 

CIP 
CONTENTS 

Introduction........................................................................................................................... 1 

Acknowledgments....................................................................................................... 1 

Impact of Then Browning's prediction .............. .................. ................ .... .. .. .. .. ...... .. ...... .. .. ... 2 

Browning and his prediction . . . .. .... . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . ................. ................ .............. ...... . . . .. . . .. . . . . . .. ... 3 

Seismological background . . .. . . .................. .................. ........ ... . ... . . . .. .. .. . . . ............... ...... . . . . .... . 5 

Promotion of Browning's prediction ................................................................................... 9 

The final days ... . . . . . .. .. . ...... . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . .. . . . . ...... . .... . . .. .. . .. . . . . . . . ... . ........ ......... 16 

Reflections . . . .. . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. . . . . . .. ... . . . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. . . .. . . . .. . .. .. .. .. . . . . .. . .. .. .. .. .... . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. . .. . 20 

Summary............................................................................................................................... 23 

References cited . ... .... . . . . . ................. ..... ... .... .. . . .. . ..... ...... . . .. . . ... . . .. ... ................ ..... . . . .. . .. . . . . .. . ... 23 

Appendix A-Writings and speeches of Then Browning and David Stewart....................... 25 

Appendix B-Official statements on the December 2-3, 1990, earthquake prediction 

and David Stewart's response........................................................................................... 41 

Appendix C-The prediction in the press .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .... .. ...... .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... ........ .......... 69 

Appendix D-The commercial response to the Browning prediction .................................. 181 

Appendix E-Preparedness literature................................................................................... 189 

Appendix F-Fault zone humor ........................................................................................... 247 

v 

RESPONSES TO IBEN BROWNING'S PREDICTION OF A 

1990 NEW MADRID, MISSOURI, EARTHQUAKE 

By William Spence, Robert B. Herrmann, 

Arch C. Johnston, and Glen Reagor* 

INTRODUCTION 

On December 3, 1990, residents of New Madrid, 

Mo., and the central Mississippi Valley region anxiously 

awaited the outcome of the prediction of a major earthquake by Iben Browning, an independent business consultant from near Albuquerque, N. Mex. The small 

community of New Madrid, Mo., was overwhelmed by 

some 30 TV satellite and radio vans, each equipped with a 

reportorial crew serving to document the predicted earthquake, IF it were to happen. For weeks, national and international media had been following the response of the 

central United States to this earthquake prediction. The 

media hype and public agitation surrounding this prediction were remarkable considering Browning's lack of 

qualifications in seismology and the denunciation of this 

prediction by practically all earthquake seismologists. 

This report documents how this prediction became 

credible to many members of the media, the emergency 

preparedness corps, and the general public. It relies on 

print sources, although major roles also were played by 

television and radio. The Browning episode stimulates 

several questions which need further study. First, 

although nearly all seismologists rejected Browning's prediction, why were they ineffective in publicly discrediting 

it? Second, why did print, television, and radio media 

intensify coverage of the prediction, even though most scientists warned against its validity? Third, why did many 

emergency preparedness personnel not question the merit 

of the prediction? Fourth, what long-term gains and losses 

for earthquake preparedness have resulted from the 

Browning episode? Finally, what have scientists learned 

from this experience that will enable them to better cope 

with future predictions (whether valid or invalid) of catastrophic natural events? 

*Spence and Reagor are at National Earthquake Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Box 25046, MS 967, Denver, CO 80225. 

Herrmann is at Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, St. Louis 

University, 3507 Laclede Ave., St. Louis, MO 63101. Johnston is at Center for Earthquake Research and Information, Memphis State University, 

Memphis, TN 38152. 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 

We appreciate discussions with and source materials 

from newspaper reporters Bill Allen (St. Louis Post-Dispatch) and Lee Hancock (Dallas Morning News), press 

officer Don Kelly (USGS), free-lance journalist Sue Edelstein, earthquake preparedness official Jerry Hauer (past 

Chairman, CUSEC), and physical geographer/sociologist 

Jill Stevens (Memphis State University). We also appreciate informative discussions with seismologists Gil Bollinger (Virginia Polytechnic Institute), Brian Mitchell (St. 

Louis University), and George Choy, Tony Crone, John 

Filson, Walt Hays, Tom Heaton, Lucy Jones, Bob Masse, 

Steve Mueller, and Randy Updike (all with the USGS). 

We thank Frank Baldwin, Lindie Brewer, Kay Masse, and 

Madeleine Zirbes (all with the USGS) for assistance in the 

preparation of this report. The insights and editorial direction of Pete Martin substantially improved this report. 

We thank the following newspapers, magazines, 

organizations, and individuals for permission to reproduce 

copyrighted material contained in this report: the American Society of Newspaper Editors, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette (Little Rock), the Associated Press, the 

Belleville News-Democrat (Illinois), the Breeze-Courier 

(Taylorville, Ill.), the Browning Newsletter, the Central 

West End Journal (St. Louis), the Chicago Tribune, the 

Clarion-Ledger (Jackson, Miss.), the Commercial Appeal 

Sunday, December 2, 1990. At least seven ~atellite. transmission trucks occupy a downtown New Madnd park1ng lot. 
2 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

Late afternoon on December 2. Satellite dishes in downtown New Madrid are poised to transmit information on the 

predicted earthquake, should it occur. 

(Memphis), the Courier-Journal (Louisville), the Courier 

News (Blytheville, Ark.), the Dallas Morning News, the 

Indianapolis Star, the Jackson Sun (Mississippi), the 

Jonesboro Sun (Arkansas), the Los Angeles Times, Dan 

Lynch, the Memphis Flyer, the Miami Herald, the New 

Republic, the New York Times, the News-Leader (Springfield, Mo.), Newsday, Newsweek magazine, North American Syndicate (New York), the Paducah Sun (Kentucky), 

the Riverfront Times (St. Louis), Science magazine, the 

Southeast Missourian (Cape Girardeau), the Southern Illinoisan (Carbondale), the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the 

Standard Democrat (Sikeston, Mo.), the State Gazette 

(Dyersburg, Tenn.), Time magazine, USA Today, the 

Webster-Kirkwood Journal (St. Louis), the Weekly 

Record (New Madrid, Mo.), Todd Wilson, and Michael 

Zimmerman. 

IMPACT OF IBEN BROWNING'S 

PREDICTION 

The progression of events leading up to December 3, 

1990, is indicated by the press clippings in appendix C. 

These clippings are a representative fraction of the total 

written material that pertains to Browning's prediction. 

They form a chronological record of the information that 

typically was available to the public and of the changing 

responses of the media and public to Browning's prediction. Reference to a specific one of the chronologically 

arranged press articles is noted by the date of the article in 

brackets: [month-day-year]. If more than one article is 

included for the cited date, the name of the source publication or the author also is noted. Although the newspapers most completely represented here are the St. Louis 

Post-Dispatch and the Commercial Appeal, there was wide 

coverage by newspapers of Cape Girardeau and New 

Madrid, Mo., Jackson, Miss., Little Rock, Ark., and Paducah and Louisville, Ky., and of other regional population 

centers. The prediction was covered in at least I 0 issues of 

USA Today and by stories or columns in the Wall Street 

Journal, the New York Times, the San Francisco Chronicle, the Miami Herald, the Chicago Tribune, and all other 

major newspapers throughout the nation. 

In the days and weeks before December 3, earthquake survival tips and safety precautions were disseminated through regional television, radio, and newspapers. 

Major earthquake drills included those for the National 

Disaster Medical System [6--24-90], the City of St. 

Louis emergency management response team, and the 

National Guards of Missouri and Arkansas [7-11-90; 

12-2-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Landa); 12-3-90, St. 

Louis Post-Dispatch, Linsalata and Manor; Courier 

News]. In Missouri alone, homeowners paid out nearly 

$22 million to add earthquake insurance to their policies 

[12-9-90 (Hernon and Allen)]. State Farm Insurance 

reported applications for coverage in Missouri to have 

been about 2,000 per day prior to December 3, and 

about 50 per day afterwards. Addition of earthquake 

insurance to homeowner policies increased significantly 

in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and 

even in States as distant as Michigan and Nebraska. 

School closures caused up to 40,000 student absences on 
, BROWNING AND HIS PREDICTION 3 

Monday morning, December 3. Satellite transmission 

trucks are across from the New Madrid Historical Museum, 

pocketed between an electrical substation and the Mississippi's levee. At right, an ABC cameraman readies his 

equipment (photo by Todd Wilson of the Standard Democrat, Sikeston, Mo.), and a television newscaster gives a 

"newsbreak" from downtown New Madrid. 

December 3, 1990, in Missouri alone [11-28-90, USA 

Today]. 

At Memphis State University, the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) sent out 10,000 

earthquake preparedness kits and fielded thousands of 

phone calls in response to Browning's prediction [12-4-

90, Jackson Sun]. A St. Louis area Red Cross chapter 

nearly exhausted its supply of 230,000 earthquake preparedness guides [11-18-90 (Allen and Gross)]. Staff 

members of Missouri's Emergency Management Agency 

spent weeks answering thousands and thousands of phone 

calls. The Central United States Earthquake Consortium 

(CUSEC) offices in Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi were swamped 

with thousands of inquiries. At Saint Louis University, 

students and faculty were inundated with requests for 

information. There were similar demands on personnel at 

Washington University and other regional institutions. The 

distant U.S. Geological Survey information offices in 

Reston, Va., and in Golden, Colo., were swamped for 

weeks with requests for information. By November, Golden's National Earthquake Information Service was averaging about 100 phone inquiries per day about Browning's 

prediction. Often three phone lines were in use 

simultaneously. Requests for written information doubled 

from the pre-prediction average. 

Officials at these centers reported spending months 

fighting unfounded rumors and rampant misconceptions 

about earthquake risks. Most callers were upset about the 

perceived threat of a catastrophic earthquake. These people expressed fear, anxiety, panic, hysteria, and related 

symptoms. Telephone hotlines to crisis centers were established by state and city agencies to disseminate earthquake 

information or to suggest sources for such information. 

BROWNING AND HIS PREDICTION 

Iben Browning graduated in 1937 at age 19 from 

Southwest Texas State Teachers College, majoring in 

math and physics. He received his M.A. (1947) and 

Ph.D. (1948) degrees in zoology (with minors in genetics and bacteriology) from the University of Texas at 

Austin. He wrote four books and held over 60 patents, 

work often done in collaboration with various associates. 

The books! deal with relationships between climate and 

the affairs of men, robots, and AIDS. The patents for 

which Browning is the first-named patentee primarily 

involve optics and photographically based copying 
4 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO., EARTHQUAKE 

devices.* According to his entry in Who's Who in America, Browning had been a climatological and business 

consultant to the Mitchell Hutchins and PaineWebber 

brokerage firms since 1975. Also, he sold a $225/yr 

business newsletter (see appendix A) and was a business 

consultant to the Midwest Research Institute, Northrop 

Corporation, various farmers' orgadamaging earthquake would occur near Memphis on December 3, 1990 [12-12-89].3 

Details of Browning's predictfon became known only 

gradually, and this composite from many of his statements 

was put together by the specially convened Working 

Group of NEPEC (appendix B): 

nizations, and other businesses and 

groups. Browning had developed a 

diverse and loyal clientele. His popularity as a lecturer supported a lecture fee of $2,500 [10-21-90, 

Arkansas Gazette; 11-11-90, Arkansas Gazette]. Although Browning 

was not a seismologist, his image as 

a high-powered consultant prompted 

many nonseismologists to give his 

earthquake prediction some credibility. lben Browning died of a heart 

attack on July·18, 1991. 

Browning never formally presented his prediction, as the term is 

defined in the scientific community. t 

The catalog of the * * * 

National Earthquake 

Information Center 

shows that no 

earthquakes as large 

as magnitude 6 

occurred anywhere 

on Earth during the 

interval November 25-

December 10, 1990. 

I. Browning has proposed that there is 

a 50 percent probability that a tidally 

triggered, magnitude 6.5 to 7.5 earthquake will occur in the New Madrid 

region of the Central United States on 

December 2-3, 1990, plus or minus 2 

days (December 1-5, 1990). I. Browning also believes that the maxima of a 

179-year tide cycle triggered the late 

1811 and early 1812 New Madrid 

earthquakes and will again affect the 

region on December 2-3, 1990. I. 

Browning also predicts a greater than 

50 percent probability of a magnitude 

8.2 earthquake in Tokyo, Japan, and a 

slightly less than 50 percent probability 

of a magnitude 6.5-7.5 earthquake on 

the Hayward fault in California. 

Rather, he made a series of comments in his newsletters and 

during talks to groups of businessmen. The report of the New 

Madrid Working Group of the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC) (appendix B) traces the 

beginnings of the Browning prediction to his 1985 handwritten table (appendix A), wherein December 3, 1990, was one 

of a half dozen times of "increased geological danger" 

throughout the world during the coming five-year interval. 

These times of geological danger were based on higher than 

usual tidal loading in the Earth's crust. Browning first publicly specified an earthquake threat for the North American 

midcontinent when he told an Atlanta business seminar in 

February 1988 that a damaging earthquake could occur near 

Memphis in early December 1990.3 The earliest known press 

reports of Browning's prediction were a brief Associated 

Press piece [11-=27-89] and a lengthier article by Michael 

Kelley of the Commercial Appeal [11-28-89]. On December 

11, 1989, as an invited speaker at the Missouri Governor's 

Conference on Agriculture, Browning again predicted that a 

*News stories attribute 67 or 68 patents to Browning [8-26-90; 10-

21-90, Arkansas Gazette]. A search of U.S. patents from 1949 to 1992 

shows Browning to be first-named on 23 of them. His first patent (shared 

with L.S. Lockington) was issued in 1957 for a micromanipulator, and his 

last was issued in 1991 for an ultrasonic cleaning method. 

tThe Seismological Society of America defines an earthquake prediction as the specification of the time, place, magnitude, and probability 

of occurrence of an anticipated earthquake.2 Browning preferred the term 

projection, which he defined as determining the time of a future event 

based on calculation. He considered "prediction" to be akin to tea-leaf 

reading or other forms of psychic foretelling. 

Additionally, a memo by David 

Stewart (see appendix A) used conversations with Browning to clarify that: 

* * * in the aggregate, [there is] an 87% probability that at 

least one of these three [earthquakes] will go December 3. 

[Browning] is virtually 100% certain that some major quake 

will occur in [the 30°-60° N.] band of latitudes on or about 

that date. 

A map of seven of Browning's reported predictions of 

earthquakes and volcanic eruptions near December 3, 

1990, was published by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch [8-26-

90]. The catalog of the U.S. Geological Survey's National 

Earthquake Information Center shows that no earthquakes 

as large as magnitude 6 occurred anywhere on Earth during the interval November 25-December 10, 1990. 

Browning's hypothesis was that peaks of tidal loading 

in the solid earth could trigger earthquakes in regions of 

high tectonic stress, much like pulling the trigger on a 

loaded gun. Browning specified regions of particularly 

high earthquake risk by calculating which latitudinal bands 

of the Earth would be subject to high amplitudes of tidal 

loading and then finding specific locations within these 

bands that were being studied by seismologists for possible 

recurrence of large or great earthquakes. The latter was 

taken as an indicator that these regions have high tectonic 

stress. 

To evaluate tidal loading as a possible trigger for 

earthquakes, we briefly review prior work done on this 

problem. Earth tides are caused as the rotating Earth is 

influenced by the combined gravitational pull of the Moon 

and Sun. Tidal loading is higher than average at the time 
SEISMOLOGICAL BACKGROUND 5 

of each new and full moon, because the alignment of the 

Sun and Moon with the Earth serves to reinforce their 

gravitational stresses on the Earth. While ordinary tidal 

loading causes easily observed deformations in large bodies of water, similar but much smaller deformations are 

caused in the crust of the solid Earth. Small variations in 

factors such as the Earth-Moon distance can cause small 

variations in the size of the fortnightly high tides. A 

slightly larger than usual tidal loading for December 3, 

1990, was the primary basis for Browning's prediction. 

Tidal loading of the Earth's 

would correlate with triggered earthquakes, but this was 

not the case. The changes in stress caused by these high 

tides are about 0.3 millibars, less than those often caused 

by atmospheric pressure changes. 

Browning further asserted that a 179-year-period, 

very high amplitude tide may have contributed to triggering the great New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-12 and that 

a return of this high-amplitude tide would help trigger the 

December 2-3, 1990, predicted earthquake (appendix B; 

also see text of Browning's talk to Faultless Starch/Bon 

Ami, appendix A). A reexamination 

solid crust can cause deformation 

(strain) as large as one-sixteenth inch 

distributed over a span of 20 miles 

(about one part in 20 million). Thus 

it is natural to speculate that if a 

seismic region were stressed critically, then tidal loading may trigger 

an earthquake. Attempts to relate 

seismicity rates to tidal loading are 

not new. The earliest may have been 

by Alexsis Perrey4 in studies pubThe most careful 

studies do not reveal 

statistically meaningful 

correlations of earthquake occurrence with 

tidal loading. 

of tidal loading curves by the 

NEPEC Working Group, again using 

the method of Harrington, 9 indicates 

that a long-period swell of high 

amplitude tidal loading similar to 

that for 1990-92 indeed occurred 

during 1812-14. The calculations in 

the preceding paragraph yield the 

total tidal loading, including the 

component due to the long-period 

lished over the period 1847-75. Many subsequent studies 

have variously reported positiveS or negative6,7 correlations. The most careful studies do not reveal statistically 

meaningful correlations of earthquake occurrence with 

tidal loading. Thus Browning's prediction of specific 

earthquakes was based on a hypothesis whose tests yield 

ambiguous results.* 

Browning's prediction of a New Madrid earthquake 

on December 2-3, 1990, was based on a particular high 

tide that was to occur at a time of minimum Earth-Moon 

distance (December 2) nearly coincident with a time of 

alignment of the Moon and Sun with the Earth (December 

1), and with a time of maximum northern declination of 

the Earth (December 3) (appendix B). While this set of 

circumstances may seem noteworthy, the corresponding 

tidal loading is only 1.006 times that of a peak on December 30, 1982, and 0.993 times that of a peak on December 

19, 1964. No significant earthquakes occurred on those 

dates. For consistent comparisons, the NEPEC Working 

Group (appendix B) calculated these tidal loads using the 

method of Harrington,9 the same method used by Browning. For the period 1988-1990, the NEPEC study found 

many examples of peak tidal shear strain within 10 percent 

of that forecast for New Madrid on December 2-3, 1990. 

If Browning's hypothesis were correct, then these times 

*Interestingly, the evidence that tidal loading does not trigger earthquakes suggests that the stress in tectonic zones does not inexorably increase to the point of failure. Rather, another failure process, such as 

accelerating unstable slip, 8 must elevate subcritical stress to that needed 

for rock failure. 

swell. Because these long-period 

tidal swells cause such small stress changes in crustal 

rocks, the rate of increasing tidal stress9 is an unlikely 

cause of the 1811-12 earthquakes. Additionally, because 

the 1811-12 earthquakes began before the 1812-14 peak 

loading, those earthquakes could not have ·been triggered 

by the peak tidal stresses. This element of Browning's prediction is only a very weak hypothesis and not a scientifically valid basis for prediction of an earthquake. 

SEISMOLOGICAL BACKGROUND 

One reason that Browning's prediction found fertile 

ground was the prior occurrence of great earthquakes in 

the New Madrid seismic zone. In fact, this area was the 

site of the three largest earthquakes ever known to occur in 

a "stable continental interior.''IO (The great majority of 

earthquakes strike near continental margins or in other 

areas where the large lithospheric plates that make up the 

Earth's crust are colliding or moving past each other. New 

Madrid is far removed from any such setting.) These earthquakes, which all occurred within a 2-month span, were on 

December 16, 1811 (magnitude M=8.2), January 23, 1812 

(M=8.1), and February 7, 1812 (M=8.3). 11 M denotes 

moment magnitude, which is the best available representation of the true size of an earthquake. These magnitude 

estimates were determined by one of us (ACJ) from information in Otto Nuttli's seminal paper on the New Madrid 

earthquakes. 12 Nuttli, of St. Louis University, used data in 

the 1912 report of M.L. Fuller,13 of the U.S. Geological 

Survey, who documented the areal severity of shaking for 
6 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

the 1811-12 main shocks and over 200 damaging aftershocks. 

The main 1811-12 earthquakes were felt as far as the 

Gulf Coast, the Atlantic shore, and northeastward at least 

to the Province of Quebec. The February 1812 event leveled the town of New Madrid, apparently for a time 

reversed the flow of a section of the Mississippi River, 

caused widespread surface deformation (including the formation of Reelfoot Lake), and toppled chimneys in Louisville, some 250 miles away .

13 The area of strong shaking 

associated with the 1811-12 earthquakes is two to three 

times that of the M=9 .2, 1964 Alaska earthquake and ten 

times that of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.14 

Eyewitness accounts indicate the power of these 

earthquakes. Louis Bringier saw thousands of trees fall 

and saw hills of sand and carbonized wood form around 

deep holes. 15 Godfrey Lesieur had similar observations: 

The earth was observed to be rolling in waves of a few feet in 

height, with a visible depression between. By and by these 

swells burst, throwing up large volumes of water, sand, and a 

species of charcoal * * *. When these swells burst, large, 

wide, and long fissures were left. 15 

From a boat, William Pierce observed numerous spoutings 

on the Mississippi River. One of these rose at least 30 feet 

above the surface. Pierce also observed such spoutings 

along an island's beach, where he found 

* * * large circular holes in the sand, formed much like a 

funnel. These holes were of various dimensions; one of them 

I observed most particularly, it was 16 feet in perpendicular 

depth, and 63 feet in circumference at the mouth * * *. For a 

great distance around the orifice, vast quantities of coal have 

been scattered, many pieces weighing from 15 to 20 lbs. were 

discharged 160 measured paces * * *.15 

Lesieur, Bringier, and Pierce had observed sandblows in 

progress. Modem investigation shows these sandblows to 

have been widespread and to be the most direct physical 

evidence that remains of the 1811-12 earthquakes. 

The 1811-12 earthquakes were the stuff of Indian 

legends. When the great Shawnee chief Tecumseh had 

trouble rallying other tribes to unify against encroachments of the Europeans, he announced as proof that he 

was sent by the Great Spirit, that the earth would shake 

when he stamped his foot on a specific future day. This 

prophecy is said to have been fulfilled by the New Madrid 

earthquakes.15 Another legend tells of Reelfoot, a Chickasaw chief with a clubfoot and lumbering gait, who fell in 

love with and abducted Laughing Eyes, a Choctaw princess. As the two were being married the earth rocked with 

the tom-toms and the Father of Waters roared over the village, forming Reelfoot Lake and fulfilling a prescient 

dream of Reelfoot.3,15 

Such stories and legends of earthquake predictions 

are well known in the central United States. So, the public 

followed with interest as detailed seismotectonic studies of 

the region of the 1811-12 earthquakes began in earnest in 

the early 1970's. Otto Nuttli showed that seismic surface 

wave energy propagates much more efficiently in the middle and eastern U.S. than in the western u.s.,t2,16 explaining the great areas over which the 1811-12 earthquakes 

caused damage and were felt. In 1976, William Stauder, 

also of St. Louis University, used data from a newly 

installed regional array of seismometers to show that small 

earthquakes in the New Madrid area concentrate in distinct linear zones, which probably represent the faults that 

ruptured during the 1811-12 earthquakes .

17 

Martin Kane, Thomas Hildenbrand, and others of the 

U.S. Geological Survey showed that concentrations of 

regional earthquakes were at the same locations as pronounced variations in the regional magnetic and gravity 

fields.18 This result suggests that an unusual geological 

feature is associated with this earthquake activity. This 

feature is interpreted as a failed continental rift-that is, 

an area where the North American continent began to be 

pulled apart, but did not actually separate, between 500 

and 750 million years ago. This failed rift, named the 

Reelfoot rift (see map), is more than 300 km long and 70 

km wide, and has 2-3 km of structural relief. Molten rock 

(magma) invaded the deeper parts of the Reelfoot rift as it 

opened, but the magma has long since cooled and solidified. It is this solidified magma that causes the variations 

in the regional magnetic and gravity fields, for its physical 

properties differ from those of the surrounding rock. Haydar Al-Shukri and Brian Mitchell, of St. Louis University, 

provide evidence that fluid-filled cracks are in the same 

linear zones in which earthquakes are concentrated.t9 This 

evidence implies that earthquakes concentrate along weakened zones in the Reelfoot rift. The compressional forces 

that cause modem earthquakes at the rift are unlike the 

extensional forces that originally caused the rift. In spite 

of our increasing understanding of the New Madrid seismic zone and of earthquake processes in other areas, we 

still have no explanation for earthquake occurrence in the 

heart of a continent. There is no proved physical model 

that can lead to valid predictions of future earthquakes that 

might be like those of 1811-12. 

Geological evidence suggests that the 1811-12 earthquakes may be extremely rare occurrences. In the 

absence of surface faulting due to the 1811-12 earthquakes, the most direct physical evidence of these great 

earthquakes is the great number of sandblows and 

fissures that are observed in the New Madrid region. (See 

photo and diagram on p. 8.) They are prevalent in an 

elongated 10,500-km2 area that overlies the present-day 

trends of earthquake epicenters.20 Sandblows most commonly form during a strong earthquake in areas with a 

high water table and a weak overlying layer of soil. 

Assuming the continual presence of a high water table, 
91' 

. f 

37' 

.. 

.. 

. . . . 

• .. . . 

MISSOURI 

. . . . 

-------:\ 

. 

• •• 

. OF • 

REELFOOT RIFT 

. .. . 

o Marked Tree 

< 

SEISMOLOGICAL BACKGROUND 

. . . 

90' 

. 

\• 

-.. ·. I --

\ 

. \ 

\ 

. . 

0..(:.-$), • 

'---.....;,(.". 

Charleston0 ~ ~ .. . . ' : • •' • I \ 

·:· Cr;--! 

~(~ Q:; J ...r 

. ' ) 

Madri\_f 

89' 

ILLINOIS 

. . 

.. . : . 

KENTUCKY 

;-. < '> "-

0:. .l. '" J 

0 ::> . t- ) 

7 (.< 1 ;. ~ 

" " " >r-('> 

EDGE OF 

MISSISSIPPI EMBAYMENT 

TENNESSEE 

25 KILOMETERS 

7 

Earthquakes and structural features of the New Madrid seismic zone. The earthquakes (shown by dots) are concentrated 

in linear zones, presumably reflecting the New Madrid fault zone. Boundaries of the Reelfoot rift shown by the nearly 

parallel lines. Igneous plutons (solidified rock that formerly was molten) shown by irregular blotches. Stippled line is edge 

of Mississippi embayment. Adapted from U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1066.14 
8 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO. EARTHQUAKE 

Photograph and interpretive sketch 

of an excavated sandblow or "eruptive vent" that was formed near 

Blytheville, Ark., during the 1811-

12 New Madrid earthquakes.21 

This vertical section is about 1 

meter wide. Prior to the 1811-12 

earthquakes the ground surface 

was at the top of the layer marked 

"Buried A horizon." On top of the A 

horizon is about 30 centimeters (or 

1 foot) of sand and lignite (carbonized wood) that was erupted during 

the 1811-12 earthquakes. Sandblows originate when strong motions of water-saturated, sandy 

soils cause their consolidation and 

overpressuring. Because the effective weight of particles is reduced 

by fluid pressure, this overpressuring can lead to liquefaction of the 

affected layer. If the overpressuring 

exceeds the buoyant weight of the 

overlying material, then the liquefied layer will try to burst to the surface.22 In this figure, the sand and 

lignite were carried from a deeper 

source through the sandblow dike 

in the weak B horizon. 

I 

I " 

PLOW ZONE 

ooo o o o ooloo ""'--

\~""­

"ERUPTIVE 

VENT" 

r---~-- , 

\ 61 : LIGNITE I ~~~-=~ L _ _ , _ __ j 

any predecessor great New Madrid earthquake should 

have caused widespread sandblows. 

A few prehistoric sandblows and other signs of liquefaction have been noted near Reelfoot Lake23 and in 

southeastern Missouri, 14 and in 1895 an M=6.8 earthquake caused localized sandblows near Charleston, Mo.24 

Although the meandering Mississippi tends to ream out its 

valley, soil profiles as old as 5,000-10,000 years still exist 

at many sites. Diligent searches for time-correlated, widespread sandblows have found only those for the 1811-12 

earthquakes, implying that if 1811-12 style earthquakes 

have occurred previously then the repeat time for these 

BURIED B HORIZON 

BURIED B HORIZON 

I 

I 

earthquakes may be greater than 5,000 years.20,23-25 This 

contrasts sharply with the 700-yr repeat time assumed by 

NuttJi26 and the 1,000-yr interval implied the rate of strain 

accumulation observed in the west-central part of the 

Reelfoot rift by Liu and others.

26 

Recent studies of the statistics of earthquakes in the 

New Madrid seismic zone indicate about a 50 percent 

probability for an M=6 or greater earthquake sometime 

within the next 15-30 years.27 The probability of a magnitude 7 earthquake occurring in a specified 2-day period is 

about 1 in 60,000 (appendix B). Probabilities become 

much smaller for increasing earthquake sizes. The lack of 
PROMOTION OF BROWNING'S PREDICTION 9 

documented major earthquakes prior to the catastrophic 

events of 1811-12 makes any estimates of the recurrence 

of similar earthquakes very conjectural. There have been 

two earthquakes greater than M=6 in the New Madrid 

seismic zone since the immediate aftershocks to the 1811-

12 earthquakes: in 1843 (M=6.5) near Marked Tree, Ark. 

and in 1895 (M=6.8) near Charleston, Mo. 11 These earthquakes occurred near the southern and northern ends, 

respectively, of the probable zone of the 1811-12 earthquakes and may be due to continuing stress redistribution 

in those areas.14 

Many other geological and seismotectonic studies in 

the region, as well a.S debates concerning the need for seismic building codes in Memphis and St. Louis, have given 

the public an increased awareness of the regional potential 

for earthquakes. Thus when Then Browning began to mention that December 3, 1990, plus or minus a couple of 

days, was a "date of geological danger" for the New 

Madrid region, he had a ready audience. 

While the occurrence of a magnitude 6.5-7.5 earthquake was not unimaginable, seismologists were agreed 

that the lack of a physical model for earthquakes in the 

New Madrid seismic zone made Browning's prediction 

implausible. The hypothesis that peaks of tidal loading can 

trigger earthquakes has been thoroughly tested and is 

ambiguous, at best. A reliable method of earthquake prediction, using any means, may be decades away. The 

ingredients for a valid earthquake prediction for the New 

Madrid seismic zone simply do not exist. 

PROMOTION OF BROWNING'S 

PREDICTION 

Established scientific findings should have led to an 

early and total invalidation of Browning's prediction. 

However, the conclusions of careful, mainstream science 

were overcome by a perception of validity attached to 

Browning's prediction by many members of the media, 

the emergency preparedness corps, and the general public. 

This section traces how this perception took hold; it is 

largely based on information in the appendixes. 

The Lorna Prieta (or "World Series") earthquake of 

October 17, 1989, caused spectacular damage in San 

Francisco and Santa Cruz and was heavily covered by the 

media in the Midwest. This M=6.9 earthquake accelerated plans for earthquake preparedness in the Midwest 

[10-27-89, 10-31-89, 2-5-90]. Browning's prediction of 

a New Madrid earthquake for December 3, 1990, took on 

special significance because he claimed to have predicted 

the Lorna Prieta earthquake just 10 days prior to the 

event, during his invited talk at the 1989 Blanchard New 

Orleans Investment Conference. (See advertisement and 

Browning Newsletter, appendix A.) Browning also 

claimed successful predictions of the earthquakes in 1971 

near San Fernando, Calif., and in 1972 in Managua, 

Nicaragua, as well as the volcanic eruptions in 1980 of 

Mount St. Helens, Wash., and in 1985 of Nevado del 

Ruiz, Colombia. 

Because of the increasing media coverage of Browning's prediction, the Central United States Earthquake 

Consortium (CUSEC) requested on May 18, 1990, that the 

National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council 

(NEPEC) evaluate the Browning prediction. NEPEC is a 

self-directed advisory board of earth scientists that reports 

to the director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Jerome Hauer, director of Indiana's emergency response 

agency and chairman of the board for CUSEC, wanted a 

scientific response to Browning's prediction, saying "I 

basically have taken the position we are not going to 

ignore this prediction" [6-22-90, Jonesboro Sun; 7-16-

90]. NEPEC's original response was to not evaluate this 

prediction, deeming it scientifically insignificant. This is 

the same way NEPEC has treated most of the 300 earthquake predictions submitted to it since 1977 [7-26-90]; it 

has made full investigations of only those predictions 

deemed to have scientific validity. It was not until September 20, 1990, that the U.S. Geological Survey 

requested NEPEC to perform a full evaluation of Browning's prediction and to advise CUSEC. 

Meanwhile, on June 18, 1990, David Stewart wrote a 

13-page memo to five key regional seismologists and natural hazards officials. (See appendix A.) In this memo, 

which became widely circulated, Stewart vouched for 

Browning's track record and spelled out many specific 

risks should Browning's predicted earthquake for the New 

Madrid fault come to pass. William Allen of the St. Louis 

Post-Dispatch, using this memo and subsequent interviews, wrote an article [7-21-90] that caused much concern. The headline, in 3/8-inch type, read "Quake 

Prediction Taken Seriously." The article repeated Browning's claims of accurately predicting recent catastrophic 

earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and quoted Stewart: 

From a scientific viewpoint, we can neither verify nor discredit this projection. * * * What Dr. Browning is doing cannot be 

explained merely by chance. Although his accuracy is not 100 

percent, his methodology does seem to be promising and worthy of serious and thorough consideration. 

This key article was picked up by the AP wire services 

and widely repeated in newspapers throughout the region. 

Stewart's endorsement of consideration of the Browning 

prediction carried much weight with nonseismologists, because he recently had been the executive director of 

CUSEC and currently was director of the Center for 

Earthquake Studies at Southeast Missouri State, Cape Girardeau, Mo., as well as being a primary source on earthquake risk and preparedness for the State of Missouri [10-

21-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch]. 
10 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO., EARTHQUAKE 

Considerable media coverage dealt with strong denials of Browning's prediction by regional seismologists. 

Robert Herrmann, professor of geophysics at St. Louis 

University, called Browning's prediction "alarmist and 

irresponsible" [1-27-90]. Brian Mitchell, chairman of the 

Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department, St. Louis 

University, and Arch Johnston, director of the Center for 

Earthquake Research and Information at Memphis State 

advocated instead a more rational, long-term approach to 

preparedness [9-23-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch]. G. Tracy 

Mehan, director of the Missouri Department of Natural 

Resources, cautioned, "The probability of a significant 

quake occurring on or about Dec. 3 is not greater than any 

other day." [9-29-90]. At a December 3 meeting of the 

Memphis Business Emergency Preparedness Council, a top 

Memphis official stated "Browning has absolutely no credUniversity, sent a memo to several 

state and federal emergency management officials and scientists, stating 

"* * * it is important to show that 

[Browning's method] is ineffective 

for predicting earthquakes * * *"and 

that the prediction "should not be 

considered seriously" [7-14-90]. 

Even Stewart said "I'm not saying I 

agree with Dr. Browning; I'm saying 

let's find out what he's doing and 

draw our conclusions" [9-23-90, the 

News-Leader]. 

Stewart apparently 

ibility * * *. I came to this meeting 

with some reluctance, because I was 

concerned that some people might 

think I was giving Browning's forecast public credence." [12-4-90, 

Arkansas Gazette]. Other emergency 

management officers were responding without using expert scientific 

evaluation of the Browning prediction. A spokesperson at the 

Springfield-Greene County Emergency Management Office said, of 

Browning, "He's been correct on so 

many things. I think that everybody 

ought to take him seriously." [8-5-

90]. The director of public safety in 

Sikeston, Mo., said "Even if he isn't 

believed in * * * 

Browning's claimed 

successes, saying 

~~Here's a man who 

However, Stewart, who was 

communicating with Browning, 

qualified as the independent supporting source needed for a story. Thereverifiably has hit 

several home runs, 

and he's up to bat. 

* * *you can't ignore 

the b~tting record." 

after, media coverage of Browning's prediction continued, 

such as a lead editorial [7-25-90] and a lead front-page 

story [Sunday, 8-26-90], both in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Appendix C shows that press coverage accelerated in 

September, with Stewart giving many interviews and talks. 

Stewart apparently believed in the correctness of Browning's claimed successes, saying "Here's a man who verifiably has hit several home runs, and he's up to bat.*** you 

can't ignore the batting record" [7-22-90, Dallas Morning 

News] and, similarly, "Will he hit another on December 3? 

We don't know, but that's no excuse for not being prepared." [8-20-90, the New York Times]. Both the engaging 

Browning and Stewart were skilled lecturers. They each 

certainly appeared to believe they were doing the right thing 

and their sincerity was convincing to a noncritical, nontechnical audience [9-10-90, 11-16-90]. Stewart was an effective speaker on the topic of earthquake preparedness. The 

public impression was that two Ph.D.'s must know what 

they're talking about in regard to the prediction. Neither 

was a recognized researcher in the difficult field of earthquake prediction nor known to have consulted with such 

researchers in regard to the New Madrid prediction. Browning's lack of expertise in earthquake prediction is very 

important to this story but largely was overlooked by many 

media members and emergency preparedness officers. 

Emergency preparedness officers were acting autonomously. Some gave informed opinions. An official with 

the Illinois Emergency Services and Disaster Agency 

advised the public to accept what most seismologists were 

saying: that specific predictions cannot be made. He 

correct, he's doing a great service for emergency preparedness, because people are finally listening." Plans were 

underway to train at least I 0 percent of the city's 30,000 

residents [9-9-90]. In St. Louis, the director of the city's 

emergency management office stated "We don't take a 

position that an earthquake will or will not happen. We're 

here to educate people about how to prepare * * * "[9-20-

90]. Jill Stevens, the Seismic Resource Center Manager at 

Memphis State's Center for Earthquake Research and 

Information, noted: 

Some state and local emergency management agencies, unsure 

about the legitimacy of the prediction, unwittingly gave it 

credibility by using it as an opportunity to promote earthquake 

preparedness. In some areas, these agencies helped to increase 

anxiety levels by presenting worst-case scenarios as a highly 

probable consequence of a major earthquake.28 

Earthquake survival kits were available from many 

stores and churches. Residents were advised to store these 

kits in basements, upstairs rooms, and automobile trunks. 

The kits included canned meats, crackers, dried and 

canned fruit, first aid kits, flashlights, wrenches to turn off 

water and gas valves, extra batteries, soft drinks, and bottled water. Wal-Mart Stores in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, 

Missouri, and Tennessee not only issued survival-tip pamphlets (appendix E) but prepared for the survival of customers by placing plastic garbage cans filled with blankets, 

foodstuffs, bottled water, and first aid kits at several places 

in each store. 

A video interview with Browning, which included 

some details of his New Madrid prediction, was recorded 
PROMOTION OF BROWNING'S PREDICTION 11 

on February 19, 1990. Because of Browning's declining 

health, this video was intended to be a record for posterity 

of Browning's views [10-21-90, Arkansas Gazette]. In the 

TV and print marketing for this video, Browning was portrayed as a truly remarkable scholar. The frontispiece 

shows some of this marketing, published in regional newsinterview with the Associated Press, "We have not 

changed our projection" [11-29-90, Courier Journal]. 

The last 30 years of Browning's career ranged from 

zoological experiments to pronouncements on the stability 

of governments. A July 12, 1976, New York Times article 

noted that he had worked as a weapons systems analyst for 

papers, which highlights a quote Sandia National Laboratory. He was 

from Stewart's June 18 memo 

(appendix A). The video was available either as a 100-minute 

unabridged interview on long-term 

weather patterns,· developing economic threats, and projected geological events ($99) or an abridged 

version dealing with projected geological events, including details on 

the December 3, 1990, earthquake 

($39). These tapes were sold by Tanstaafl ("There ain't no such thing as 

a free lunch") Communications of 

Palm Springs, Calif. [9-29-90]. On 

this tape, Browning predicted a 50-

50 chance of a New Madrid earthquake between the evening of 

December 2 and the morning of 

In his December 8, 

1989, breakfast talk, 

* * * Browning warned 

of the coming 

earthquake risk * * *. 

funded by that laboratory in the early 

sixties to study navigational control 

of donkeys by use of remote-control 

electrodes implanted in the pain and 

pleasure centers of the animals' 

brains.29 If this worked, the proposal 

was to use similar methodology to 

navigate whales equipped with 

hydrogen bombs into harbors of 

Soviet port cities29 [12-3-90, Commercial Appeal (Bazell)]. Such 

research was popular in that era. As 

a paid consultant to NASA prior to 

the 1969 Apollo landing, he concluded that the Moon was covered 

with a layer of fine dust, so thick 

that neither human-occupied nor 

Here he stated also 

"there's at least a 

50-50 probability 

that the federal 

government of the 

U.S. will fall in 1992. " 

December 3. He estimated the magnitude of this earthquake to be at least 7, and possibly as large as 8, on the 

Richter scale. 

Browning did. not profit directly from the video, as 

money from this venture was to go directly into a college 

trust fund for his grandchildren [9-29-90; 10-21-90, 

Arkansas Gazette]. Stories based on personal interviews 

with Browning appeared in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch [8-

26-90], the Arkansas Gazette [10-21-90], and the Miami 

Herald [11-25-90]. 

Public statements and interviews made it clear that 

Browning was not backing off from his prediction. On 

June 19, 1990, Browning's daughter, Evelyn Browning 

Garriss, told the Mid-America Regulatory Conference in 

St. Louis that while there may not definitely be an earthquake on December 3, "I would at least lay the china flat" 

[6-20-90; 6-22-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch]. Browning 

himself spoke on November 15 in St. Louis to 600 people 

at a $25-a-plate lunch [11-16-90]. Here he predicted that 

tidally produced increases in volcanic activity will cause 

great global cooling, attendant very low grain yields in 

1992, and a consequent severe depression. He showed several graphs linking tidal forces to volcanic activity, revolutions, and wars [11-16-90; 11-18-90, Chicago Tribune; 

11-18-90, Paducah Sun; 1-91, ASNE Bulletin]. Asked 

about his earthquake prediction, he replied "If a person has 

any doubt about whether I'm wrong or not, he should at 

least take care of his children" [11-16-90]. On November 

28, 1990, Evelyn Browning Garriss said in a telephone 

robotic spacecraft could possibly 

land on it.29 Browning increasingly delved into climatological change. The above-noted New York Times article 

described Browning's methods, observing that he went 

much further than other climatologists in linking climate 

and history and in "projecting" effects. (See second footnote on p. 4.) Such "projections" were one reason for 

Browning's popularity. He was frequently quoted in major 

newspapers, often in regard to projections concerning climatic trends. His unsuccessful projections were discounted, but successful ones, such as projecting the 1988 

drought in the U.S. Farm Belt, were lauded. John Coleman, senior vice president in charge of PaineWebber's 

institutional sales division in Chicago, was quoted in the 

July 3, 1988, Los Angeles Times: "He's very good. He's 

done a lot of good predicting. He's the most popular consultant we've had." 

Examples of the style and content of Browning's 

presentations are indicated by the transcripts of two of 

his talks, reproduced in appendix A. In a speech given 

in Chicago on October 31, 1989, Browning projected 

that the period including December 3, 1990, through 

January 18, 1992, would see some of the stormiest 

weather in our history, since 1760, and mentioned that 

California, New Madrid, and the Philippines would be 

at risk of earthquakes. In his December 8, 1989, breakfast talk to Faultless Starch/Bon Ami Company, Kansas 

City, Mo., Browning warned of the coming earthquake 

risk from the New Madrid fault. Here he stated also 

"there's at least a 50-50 probability that the federal 

government of the U.S. will fall in 1992." These texts 
12 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO., EARTHQUAKE 

of Browning's talks show that he tied the depletion of 

the ozone layer and the South American warming currents to volcanic eruptions, disregarding the conclusions 

of much research on depletion of the ozone layer and 

on the El Nino phenomenon.* He hypothesized that isostatic processes, due to removal of sediment load by the 

Mississippi, caused earthquakes in the New Madrid 

region (in spite of the fact that 

Similarly, Browning's claimed successful predictions 

of the eruption of Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, on November 13, 1985; the earthquake near San Fernando, Calif., in 

February 1971 (magnitude 6.5); and the earthquake near 

Managua, Nicaragua, in December 1972 (magnitude 6.2) 

cannot be substantiated (appendix B) [10--30--90]. These 

events occurred near times of high tides. Because high 

tides occur with each new and full 

these earthquakes are characterized 

by horizontal compression). Browning showed a tendency to observe 

correlations between phenomena 

and to state how the phenomena 

were physically linked, without the 

necessary scientific steps of 

hypothesis testing, including placing 

the hypothesis in the context of 

research by other scientists. Browning was an entertaining and popular 

lecturer, and his ''projections" primarily were general in character. 

Browning's claims for successful predictions of earthquakes and 

volcanic eruptions have not been verified (appendix B). For example, in 

regard to his statements 10 days prior 

to the October 17, 1989, Lorna Prieta 

Because high tides 

occur with each new 

and full moon, and 

because about 110 

earthquakes greater 

than magnitude 6 

occur each year, there 

is a significant random 

chance of occasional 

moon, and because about 110 earthquakes greater than magnitude 6 

occur each year, there is a significant 

random chance of occasional major 

earthquakes roughly coinciding with 

a high tide. The lack of verification 

of Browning's claimed predictions 

has led to the suggestion that Browning actually associated these events 

with high tides only after the actual 

events occurred (appendix B) [10--

21-90, Dallas Morning News]. Such 

results are known to seismologists as 

"retrodictions" or "post-dictions." 

Thomas Heaton of the U.S. Geological Survey, a member of the New 

Madrid Working Group of NEPEC, 

emphasizes that testing a prediction 

model on past data will move virtumajor earthquakes 

roughly coinciding with 

a high tide. 

earthquake, a transcript of an audience member's tape· of 

Browning's talk showed that he had said only, "There will 

probably be several earthquakes around the world, Richter 

6-plus, and there may be a volcano or two" around October 16 [10--19-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch]. Because 

Browning did not specify a location, the NEPEC report 

(appendix B) emphasized that his statement cannot be 

taken as a valid prediction for the specific Lorna Prieta 

earthquake [10-19-90, St. Louis Post.-Dispatch]. According to the NEPEC report, Browning told a Portland, Oreg., 

audience 6 days before the May 18, 1980, climactic eruption of Mt. St. Helens, that this eruption was likely within 

about a week. Because the volcano had been having minor 

eruptions since March 27, its north flank was widely 

reported to be bulging at about 2 meters per day, and geologists were publicly warning about an imminent major 

eruption [10--30-90], Browning's statement can only be 

taken as a logical inference rather than a precise, databased prediction. 

*The EI Nino affects global weather patterns; among other effects, 

it causes the abruptly warming currents at the west coast of South America. Also, although the eruptions of EI Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo have led 

to decreases in stratospheric ozone, studies show that such eruptions play 

a minor role in owne depletion, relative to chlorofluorocarbons released 

by human activity. Moreover, these eruptions cannot be linked to tidal 

loading. 

ally any investigator to choose data that lead to the desired 

result.? Prediction of future earthquakes is the only valid 

test of an earthquake prediction algorithm. 

Browning's loose style carried over into his specific 

prediction of the New Madrid earthquake. The existing 50 

percent chance for a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake in 

the next 15-30 years27 apparently led to his estimate of an 

M 6.5-7.5 size for the predicted earthquake. In his video 

Browning said that the predicted quake would be smaller 

than the 1811-12 temblors. However, according to Stewart's memorandum (see appendix A), Browning predicted 

the collapse of bridges crossing the Mississippi River and 

damage to a third of the buildings in Chicago. Such damage implies ground motion for the predicted earthquake to 

be similar to that observed for the M=8+ earthquakes of 

1811-12. He assumed that tectonic stresses were great 

enough that a particular high solid-earth tide of December 

3, 1990, would have a 50 percent chance of triggering the 

predicted earthquake. The details of Browning's prediction 

contained flawed assumptions and severe inconsistencies 

with the results of mainstream seismological research. 

Such details, combined with intensified media attention to 

the 1811-12 earthquakes and Browning's failure to disavow the prediction, led to a public perception that the 

predicted earthquake would be truly catastrophic, such as 

one of those of 1811-12. 

How could a reputable scientist such as David Stewart have endorsed consideration of Browning's prediction 
PROMOTION OF BROWNING'S PREDICTION 13 

for a New Madrid earthquake? Aside from recently having been executive director of CUSEC and being current 

director of the Center for Earthquake Studies at Southeast 

Missouri State, Stewart has M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in 

geophysics from the University of Missouri at Rolla, and 

had been director of the McCarthy Geophysics Laboratory 

at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill from 

1971 to 1978. After Browning's prediction became public, Stewart traveled to Albuquerque to consult with 

contacted state government officials about Mrs. Bernhardt's prediction, touting her recent claims to have successfully predicted three earthquakes. At that time, he 

caused a furor in his academic community. Fourteen of 

Stewart's colleagues, including his department chairman, 

signed a statement that analyzed Bernhardt's claimed successful earthquake predictions and concluded that there 

was "no valid reason to take seriously Ms. Bernhardt's 

prediction." Stewart subsequently featured Bernhardt at a 

Browning and provided media members with personal introductions to 

Browning. While Stewart repeatedly 

stated that he was unsure about the 

Browning prediction, he also repeatedly called attention to the prediction, for example to an audience of 

more than 2,000 in Arnold, Mo. [9-

10-90], and to 1,200 in Terre 

Haute, Ind., in the fall of 1990. The 

press clippings in appendix C show 

that Stewart was far more frequently 

quoted than Browning himself. 

* * *in the mid-1970's, 

Stewart had worked 

with California psychic 

Clarissa Bernhardt to 

predict an M-8 

earthquake * * * in the 

region of Wilmington 

and Southport, N.C. 

Geology Department Colloquium at 

the University of North Carolina, 

Chapel · Hill. David Dunn, a colleague and former collaborator of 

Stewart's, said at the time, "I think it 

is socially irresponsible to make such 

predictions without being concerned 

about the adverse consequences of 

such a position being made public." 

Victor Zullo, professor of earth sciences at the Wilmington campus of 

the University of North Carolina, 

said, "It is irresponsible for a scienStewart's credibility was publicly challenged on October 21, 1990, when William Allen, 

of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and Lee Hancock, of the 

Dallas Morning News, simultaneously broke key investigative stories that, in the mid-1970's, Stewart had worked 

with California psychic Clarissa Bernhardt to predict an 

M=8 earthquake on or about January 17, 1976, in the 

region of Wilmington and Southport, N.C. Allen's lead 

had originated with a confidential source but he got Stewart to confrrm the story during an after-dinner conversation. (Allen and Stewart had collaborated on several 

previous projects and so had been on friendly terms.) 

In 1975 Stewart warned30 that bulges along the North 

Carolina coast might presage an earthquake in the Wilmington area, which could pose a particular threat to a 

nuclear reactor being built there at the time. This prediction was invalidated when key data he used were shown to 

be erroneous. Then, after he read an article in the National 

Enquirer that told of Bernhardt's predictions of three earthquakes, he invited her to North Carolina. He accompanied 

Bernhardt on a surveillance tour by airplane and auto, during which she made thirteen specific and general earthquake predictions for the region, with the Wilmington area 

earthquake to be the largest of all. Stewart then said he felt 

a duty to make Bernhardt's psychically based prediction 

public. This information was given in a paper he coauthored with Bernhardt, "Some Recent Psychic Earthquake Predictions," presented at the January 9-10, 1976, 

Annual Convention of the Southeastern Regional Parapsychological Association, Davidson College, North Carolina. 

According to accounts in newspapers from Chapel 

Hill, Durham, Wilmington, and Raleigh, N.C., for January 

and February 1976, Stewart had "privately and quietly" 

tific person to alarm people with 

such an emotional approach." Stewart subsequently was 

denied tenure at the University of North Carolina [10-21-

90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch; 10-21-90, Dallas Morning 

News], even though in 1973 he had been voted by geology 

students as the best teacher of the year [10-21-90, Dallas 

Morning News; 12-12-90, Greensboro]. 

Comparing Stewart's backing of the Bernhardt and 

Browning predictions, Geoffrey Feiss, now chairman of 

the Geology Department at the University of North 

Carolina at Chapel Hill and a former colleague of 

Stewart's reflected, "It surprises me that he didn't learn 

his lesson 15 years ago." Feiss chalked up Stewart's 

eagerness to embrace Bernhardt's predictions as the 

naivete of a young scholar and went on to say, "I think 

Dave is a unique fellow * * *. He feels that there 

are things that operate in the physical world that we 

can't understand or we don't understand. So he has an 

open mind to all possibilities, which is good, but the 

problem in this case is he sacrifices his critical facilities" [12-12-90, Greensboro News and Record]. Similarly, Dunn, who is now dean of the School of Natural 

Sciences and Mathematics of the University of Texas at 

Dallas, points out, "His logic seemed identical to that 

he's using now. He takes a [scientifically] undocumented claim, he says the individual has a track record 

of success and, therefore, he says, the individual cannot 

be ignored" [10-21-90, Dallas Morning News]. So, 

finally, widespread knowledge of Stewart's past track 

record of endorsing an earthquake prediction without 

regard to a legitimate scientific process discredited his 

alliance with Browning's prediction [10-21-90, St. 

Louis Post-Dispatch; 10-21-90, Dallas Morning News]. 
14 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO., EARTHQUAKE 

By coincidence, in the late summer of 1990, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) released its 

long-awaited report on estimated earthquake losses for St. 

Louis.31 This comprehensive report estimated the effects 

on the City and County of St. Louis of a large (M=7 .6) 

and a great (M=8.6) earthquake occurring in the New 

Madrid seismic zone. In early summer, Senator John Danforth, R-Mo, said that this report estimates hundreds of 

[10-8-90], Newsweek magazine [10-22-90], USA Today 

(numerous stories in October-December), and many 

national and foreign newspapers. This small earthquake 

also evoked an immediate cautionary response from the 

professional community. Douglas Wiens, professor of 

Earth and Planetary Sciences at Washington University, 

published a reality-check commentary in the St. Louis 

Post-Dispatch [9-30-90], saying "The near-hysteria that 

deaths and billions of dollars damage 

in St. Louis from a severe New 

Madrid quake and that "we are not 

as prepared as we should be" [7-14-

90]. Studies such as the FEMA 

report are crucial for emergency preparedness planners, for engineers, 

and for the development of modern 

infrastructure. However, the coincidence of this report with a heightening concern about Browning's 

prediction served to tie the two 

together [8-6-90] and to further elevate the public's concern. 

Eventually the panic 

level soared so high 

that the editor of the 

has developed over [Browning's] 

groundless prediction is startling to 

those of us who study earthquakes * 

* *. The public should disregard all 

predictions about the specific date 

that an earthquake will occur. No 

one can make such predictions." 

Eventually the panic level soared so 

high that the editor of the Paducah 

Sun decided to ban any earthquakerelated stories in his paper from 

about November 25 until the weekend after December 3-4 [ 11-25-90, 

the Paducah Sun; 1-91, ASNE 

Bulletin]. 

Paducah Sun 

decided to ban any 

earthquake-related 

stories in his paper 

By mid-September, the St. 

Louis County emergency management office was averaging more than 

from about November 

25 until the weekend 

after December 3-4. Nearly 5 months after CUSEC' s 

100 calls a day about the Browning prediction, and the St. 

Louis City emergency management office was getting over 

60 calls per day. Costs for supplying and mailing materials 

already were straining budgets for these offices. At this 

time, Fred Williams, director of the St. Louis City office 

was averaging two speaking appearances a day, to crowds 

from 20 to 600. He said that people were "taking this thing 

real seriously" [9-20-90]. Mark Gartland, director of the 

county office, said that the public reaction is "bordering on 

the unhealthy" [9-20-90]. Jill Stevens, of Memphis State 

University, gave over 300 requested talks to organizations, 

agencies, schools, and private groups in the central U.S. in 

the year preceding Decemb~r 3, 1990.28 She was critical 

of the Browning prediction, saying "We're not according 

any credibility whatsoever to his projections" [9-23-90, 

the News-Leader]. 

Perhaps this whole episode would have faded away if 

it were not for the magnitude 4.7, Cape Girardeau earthquake of September 26, 1990-one of nearly 20 earthquakes of about this size in or near the New Madrid zone 

since the turn of the century. In her June 19 talk to the 

Mid-America Regulatory Conference, Browning's daughter warned of foreshocks in October, saying that many 

areas are unprepared for a quake and that a foreshock 

"would be one of the best things that could happen" [6-

20-90]. This widely felt earthquake gave a tangible aura 

of credibility to Browning's prediction. The public felt a 

terrible unease, and this small earthquake triggered a fullscale media quake. Articles appeared in Time magazine 

original request for an evaluation of 

Browning's prediction and only 1lf2 months prior to 

December 3, the U.S. Geological Survey transmitted to 

CUSEC the full report of the NEPEC Working Group. 

Three days later, on October 18, the U.S. Geological Survey, NEPEC, and CUSEC released the report (appendix B) 

to the media, at a press conference at St. Louis' Airport 

Hilton. The report was prepared in less than 2 weeks. It 

showed, point by point, that the Browning prediction was 

thoroughly invalid. It showed that tidal triggering of earthquakes cannot be substantiated and that Browning's 

claimed string of successful predictions was unsupportable. 

The report thoroughly debunked Browning's methodology 

and claims, and these results were widely reported [10-19-

90, Southeast Missourian (Grebling and Hente); 10-19-90, 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch; 10-21-90, Dallas Morning News; 

10-21-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch; 10-26-90; 10-30-90]. 

Nevertheless, many citizens would wait until December 3 before they would judge Browning's prediction to 

have been a failure. Stewart issued a press release (appendix B) the day after release of the NEPEC report, commenting that "Dr. Browning has yet to be properly 

scrutinized by the scientific community" [11-8-90]. 

Also after release of the NEPEC report, exceptionally 

informative earthquake preparedness guides were published in many regional newspapers. These included supplements (see appendix E) in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

on October 28, 1990, the Paducah Sun on November 3, 

1990, the Arkansas Gazette (Little Rock) on November 11, 

1990, and the Southern Illinoisan (Carbondale) on 
PROMOTION OF BROWNING'S PREDICTION 15 

November 18, 1990. The St. Louis, Paducah, and Carbondale guides were filled with a remarkable amount of advertising, much relating to earthquake preparedness, whereas 

the Little Rock guide had no advertising. In addition, hundreds of thousands of pieces of earthquake information literature were distributed through stores, churches, insurance 

agencies, universities, the Red Cross, the USGS, CUSEC, 

and State and local emergency preparedness offices. All of 

these guides gave much useful information on how to prepare for a major earthquake and actions to take when one 

occurs. 

prediction with the effects to be portrayed in the miniseries was disturbingly clear. CUSEC chairman Jerome 

Hauer requested that NBC delay the airing of this earthquake-disaster movie [11-11-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch]. 

Nevertheless, the movie was aired. Although some mainstream scientific thinking on earthquake prediction was 

represented accurately, this information was imbedded 

within a choppy story line, diminishing the earthquake preparedness value of the mini-series. The film's main character was based in part on USGS seismologist Lucy Jones, 

What most of these guides did 

not do was take a stand on the validity of Browning's prediction, or even 

acknowledge the debate. Some of the 

newspapers that had published preparedness guides later ran stories and 

columns about the scientific community's rejection of Browning's prediction [10-19-90, St. Louis PostDispatch; 10-30-90; 11-18-90, Paducah Sun; 11-25-90, Paducah Sun], 

and CUSEC prepared a disclaimer 

about the prediction (appendix B) but 

The seeming 

confirmation of the 

Browning prediction by 

regional educational 

institutions swelled 

the grass-roots 

acceptance of the 

prediction. 

who called the movie plot "completely unrealistic" and said "Some 

really responsible people were portrayed very badly" [11-13-90]. Columnist Eric Mink termed part 2 of 

the mini-series "gratuitously violent 

* * * and one of the most cynically 

exploitive TV productions that I can 

recall" [11-11-90, St. Louis PostDispatch]. Science writer William 

Allen called the mini-series "The Big 

Baloney" and quoted CUSEC chairman Jerome Hauer, that the mood in 

didn't routinely include it in mailings of earthquake preparedness literature. Only Memphis State University systematically included a rebuttal of the prediction with the 

preparedness literature it distributed. All other distributors 

of such literature, by their silence on this issue, gave 

implicit credibility to Browning's prediction. 

It is outside the scope of this report to assess the 

degree to which public attitudes were shaped by local 

media coverage and by the statements and actions of local 

scientists and emergency preparedness personnel. A strong, 

but subjective, impression is that public agitation was 

lower in the Memphis area than in many other parts of the 

region. We believe this was because of the major effort 

Memphis State University made to explain the invalidity 

of Browning's prediction. 

One last event would serve to push a segment of the 

population towards panic. The NBC mini-series "The Big 

One: The Great Los Angeles Earthquake (a soon to be true 

story)" was long scheduled for prime time November 11 

and 12. A few days before this broadcast, NBC's 

"Unsolved Mysteries" put together an earthquake segment 

[11-8-90], featuring a highly edited interview with 

Browning and Stewart. Immediately after this interview, in 

which Browning unequivocally stated that the predicted 

New Madrid earthquake had a 50-50 chance of occurring 

and repeated his claims of past successful predictions, 

there was a cut to advertise the forthcoming mini-series. 

To achieve some balance, this television segment contained a rebuttal of Browning's prediction by a USGS seismologist. However, the implied association of Browning's 

Missouri, Illinois, and other states "is 

somewhere between a hysteria and a panic. There's no 

question that people are taking this prediction very seriously. * * * That show made it sound like [earthquake 

prediction] was something simple and that did the public a 

considerable disservice. * * * it leads the public to believe 

that scientists really do have this information but are keeping it from them" [11-13-90]. (The real world of earthquake prediction is in an early stage of hypothesis testing 

and it may be decades before a reliable method of earthquake prediction is available [11-18-90, Los Angeles 

Times]). On the day after the mini-series NBC provided a 

national hookup for affiliate stations to interview a USGS 

seismologist; most of the responding stations were from 

the Midwest and most of the questions dealt with Browning's prediction. 

After release of the NEPEC denunciation of the 

Browning prediction, the pace of announced school closings continued to increase. The seeming confirmation of 

the Browning prediction by regional educational institutions swelled the grass-roots acceptance of the prediction. 

Many schools in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and 

Tennessee, were closed at least on Monday, December 3, 

and some were closed for the three days December 3-5 

[7-9-90; 9-9-90; 12-2-90, Memphis Commercial Appeal; 

12-4-90, Arkansas Gazette]. Other schools remained open 

but absenteeism was high [12-4-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Uhlenbrock); 12-5-90, Webster-Kirkwood Journal]. 

One school district prepared a disaster plan for the quake, 

and then cited community pressures as the main reason for 

school closures [ 11-29-90]. Many schools were closed for 
16 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

monetary reasons, related to the expected high absenteeism. In most states of the region, high absenteeism would 

cause great reductions in the attendance-based state funding [11-25-90, the Paducah Sun], a burden that financially tight schools could not bear. Such forces helped 

deprive school programs of a unique opportunity to use 

the by-then obviously incorrect Browning prediction to 

engage teachers and students in a critical analysis of the 

forces that mold public opinion [12-2-90, St. Louis PostDispatch (Flemming)]. 

THE FINAL DAYS 

The months preceding December 3 saw the Midwest 

engrossed by Browning's prediction. ABC's "Good Morning America" interviewed Browning. The prediction stimulated planned TV segments for the ''Today Show," 

ABC's "World News Tonight," PBS's "Nova," and others 

[10-12-90]. Coverage by local TV was intense [12-2-90, 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Mink); 12-5-90, Riverfront 

Times]. Emergency preparedness officials in Missouri, 

Tennessee, and nearby states dropped everything on their 

agendas to respond to a deluge of written and telephone 

requests for information. The requirement to respond to 

the needs of the public for information led to a major allocation of resources for earthquake preparedness by local 

agencies. 32 State emergency preparedness agencies spent 

$200,000 out of lean budgets in responding to the prediction [12-6-90, USA Today]. Preparedness officials 

attended earthquake seminars, tested sirens, established 

emergency shelters equipped with food, water, and medical supplies, designed evacuation procedures, established 

radio links within communities, gave speeches, and supervised earthquake drills. Thousands of preparedness personnel from counties and municipalities were involved in 

these activities. In St. Louis, more than 1,000 firefighters, 

emergency medical technicians, police officers, and others 

participated in a mock disaster [12-3-90, St. Louis PostDispatch (Linsalata and Manor)]. Families were encouraged to practice earthquake drills. Brochures and pamphlets on causes of earthquakes and how to mitigate losses 

from earthquakes were widely distributed. At least 1,600 

members of the Kentucky National Guard were on call 

[11-28-92]. The National Guards of Missouri and Arkansas performed earthquake preparedness drills during early 

December [12-2-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Landa); 12-

3-90, Courier News]. The Arkansas drill also involved 

other State and Federal agencies. It used a worst-case scenario of a Richter magnitude 7.6 earthquake, in which the 

(exaggerated) toll in eastern Arkansas had reached 4,950 

dead, 25,097 seriously injured, and 98,020 left homeless 

[12-3-90, Courier News]. 

In New Madrid, the annual Christmas parade, scheduled for December 5, was canceled; in Ridgely, Tenn., the 

annual Christmas parade was renamed the "Earthquake 

Parade." In Memphis, Tenn., seasonal concerts and plays, 

which in past years were traditional moneymakers, were 

either postponed or canceled due to public concern about 

the possible earthquake [ 12-4-90, Commercial Appeal 

(Smith)]. Occupancy at the Peabody Hotel, Memphis, 

declined to about 15 percent, whereas full occupancy is 

typical for the Holidays. Even lower occupancies were 

seen in other downtown Memphis hotels. 

To document the bizarre final days leading into the 

Browning prediction, the U.S. Geological Survey sent a 

four-person seismological team to the New Madrid region 

during December 2-4, 1990. A carnival atmosphere prevailed in New Madrid on December 2 and 3. This small, 

Missouri Bootheel community of about 3,300 was gorged 

with story-seeking media members and inquisitive tourists. 

The mood was one of bewildered anticipation. Downtown, 

the streets and sidewalks were packed. More than 200 

news organizations had reporters on New Madrid's streets 

[1-91, ASNE Bulletin]. More than 30 television and radio 

satellite trucks were parked along or adjacent to Main 

Street. The call letters identified media crews from as far 

away as New York City and Washington, D.C. on the East 

Coast, and cities in Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Oklahoma, 

Texas, and other parts of the Central States. The international press corps was represented by teams from Japan 

and Great Britain. On Sunday evening, people knew that 

the full moon over the Mississippi signaled peaking tidal 

forces, on which Browning's prediction was based. The 

maximum force was to be around 5 a.m. on Monday the 

3d. 

During Sunday, December 2, pulpits rang with words 

of caution and concern. The bulletin board of the First 

Baptist Church in Marked Tree read "Give Praise to Our 

God Who Can Shake the Earth If He Wants To." Other 

sermon titles in the region included "When Will It Happen?," "Standing on Shaky Ground," "Prepare for the 

Earthquake," "Earthquake: Fear or Faith," "Preparing for 

the Big One? Are You Prepared for the Last One?," "The 

Bible and Browning on Earthquake," and "And the Walls 

Came Tumbling Down" [ 12-1-90, Commercial Appeal 

(Bailey)]. Earthquake "survival revivals" were held in 

Sikeston, Mo. Such response of religious groups reflected 

the concerned mood of the heartland. 

On Monday, New Madrid streets were alive with 

activity. A preacher, driving a van equipped with megaphones, spoke about the end of the world. The Chamber of 

Commerce enjoyed brisk sales of earthquake T -shirts, 

mugs, and other memorabilia. A skywriting airplane executed aerials over the Mississippi River. A local restaurant, Tom's Grill, was featuring "quakeburgers." A fivepiece country band, located near the Mississippi's levee, 

played earthquake songs. There were rumors of whirlpools 

in the Mississippi, steaming along the New Madrid fault, 

bubbling in Reelfoot Lake, fluctuating levels in water 
THE FINAL DAYS 17 

·" " ;1'~ ~""""""'-~~ 

FlRST 'BAPTIST CHURCH 

GIVE PRAISE TO OUR GOD 

WHO CAN SHAKE THE EARTH 

IF HE WANTS TO 

("' ·th~ (. 

1 ~ u. r v a \In 1 

k e vi val 

S IVl I~ t:,ap+·, ~i- c:.hu. ("' (_ h ~~C. ~G l 

· -~~ t"hr u ~- Si f\~~ "S 

Vor~~ Evo.~l&ocsl:s 

'): 00 PO"\ N \ ~~t\y F Vf>C"VC"\IV' ti:IMt. 

The religious response to Browning's prediction: church bulletin 

boards in Marked Tree, Ark., and 

Kewanee, Mo.; sign in a Sikeston, 

Mo., supermarket advertising a "sur· 

vival revival"; car driven by Elijah 

Streicher of Cincinnati, bearing mes· 

sages for the people of New Madrid; 

and the van of Rev. Sanford Berry, 

who dreamed that there would be 

no earthquake, but nevertheless 

preached about doomsday through 

megaphones attached to the van. 

wells, blackbirds flying backwards, and an angel hitchhiking in the New Madrid area, warning motorists to stay 

away from New Madrid. At Hap's Bar, a "Shake, Rattle 

and Roll" party ran from 6 a.m. Monday until 1:30 a.m. 

Tuesday (appendix D). Bar patrons jotted the number 

series 1234567890 on napkins, noting 123 represented 

ETERNITY PREPAREDNESS 

KITS AVAILABLE HERE. 

INQUIRE WITHIN 

December 3, 456 represented 4:56 o'clock, 78 represented 

7.8 on the Richter scale, and 90 the year 1990. There was 

a persistent rumor that the brilliant Browning had infrared 

vision in one eye. Another rumor had a St. Louis utility 

company stockpiling 6,000 body bags in anticipation of 

the carnage [12-9-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Hernon 
18 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

"Quake day'' in New Madrid. A large banner near downtown calls for help, while the Chamber of Commerce finds some help 

in the throngs of tourists and journalists drawn to New Madrid by the prediction. Here, Chamber president Shirley Perry sells 

aT-shirt to the senior author. The Chamber had sold more than $10,000 worth ofT-shirts and sweatshirts by April 1991. 

(Photo by Todd Wilson of the Standard Democrat, Sikeston, Mo.) On facing page the "Faultline Express Band" puts out 

some good rhythm in songs about living near the fault zone, and local restaurants advertise special offerings appropriate for 

the occasion. At lower right, psychologist Dr. Robert Butterworth, seated at the New Madrid Historical Museum, prepares to 

talk to children about their reactions to the predicted earthquake. 
THE FINAL DAYS 
20 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO., EARTHQUAKE 

and Allen)]. Missouri Governor John Ashcroft appeared at 

3 o'clock on the afternoon of the 3d to assure those 

present that the predicted earthquake was highly unlikely. 

Sen. Christopher S. Bond, R-Mo., also was in New 

Madrid on the 3d and expressed doubt about the predicted 

earthquake [12-4-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Hernon)]. 

However, the media quake had been in full swing for 

weeks and now newsbreaks were taken on the hour, 

including interviews with other media members. 

The New Madrid Historical 

REFLECTIONS 

Life has returned towards normal for residents of the 

central Mississippi Valley region. After the failure of 

Browning's prediction, Stewart resigned his position as 

director of the Center for Earthquake Studies at Southeast 

Missouri State [12-12-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch; 12-

14-90], although he continues as a member of the teaching 

faculty and gives occasional outside talks on earthquake 

Museum, at the end of Main Street 

near the Mississippi's levee, was 

crammed with people studying David 

Stewart's excellent exhibits on the 

earthquakes of 1811-12. Robert Butterworth, a California psychologist, 

set up shop there, advising children 

to punch and kick a puppet representing Iben Browning as a means of 

releasing their fears and anxieties 

over the prediction [12-4-90, Commercial Appeal (Beifuss, Hernon)]. 

New Madrid had its entire police 

Browning's prediction 

* * * made the leap 

from hypothesis to 

prediction without the 

intervening process of 

showing verifiable 

preparedness. The dean of Stewart's 

college said that he believed that due 

to the efforts of Stewart, "the university and the region are better prepared for an earthquake than they 

were a year ago" [12-12-90, St. 

Louis Post-Dispatch]. Browning continued his work and, prior to his 

death, was persuaded to give another 

video interview that included comments in regard to the failed New 

Madrid earthquake prediction 

(appendix A). On May 3, 1991, a 

magnitude 4.4 earthquake, centered 

evidence and hypothesis testing * * *. 

force--6 regular and 15 auxiliary officers-on 24-hour 

standby. Telephone service technicians installed 40 additional telephone lines for members of the press. 

Wherever people congregated throughout the region 

the main conversation topic was the predicted earthquake. 

Most people seemed uncertain about the veracity of the 

prediction but said that they were taking some precautions 

"just in case." Many of the 1,500 employees at the 

Noranda Aluminum, Inc. plant-by far New Madrid's 

largest employer-were expected to stay home on December 3 [12-3-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Hernon)]. 

Numerous other businesses had high absenteeism; there 

were reported business closures in the Arkansas towns of 

Blytheville and Marked Tree. Many people left the region 

for safer places. Ironically, one Marked Tree family went 

to Nashville to escape the possible earthquake, only to 

have their home bum down during their absence [ 12-4-90, 

Arkansas Gazette (Gordon)]. 

By late Monday the 3d, lack of earthquake activity 

caused people to begin to lose interest in the whole affair. 

Media trucks began to pack up their gear and lower their 

satellite dishes. By midday Tuesday, nearly all news teams 

had departed. One reporter facetiously wrote [ 12-4-90, 

Commercial Appeal, Beifuss], "Nevertheless, the hype 

provided many with an opportunity to have fun, make 

money, and save souls." He didn't mention that hundreds 

of thousands of lives had been disrupted, that the economic impact was many tens of millions of dollars, and 

that the sociological aspects of this event might be studied 

for years. December 1-5, 1990, had passed and the Earth 

did not whimper. 

about 10 miles west of New Madrid, caused some concern 

[5-4-91] but was quickly forgotten. 

During the Browning episode, regional awareness of 

earthquake preparedness reached new highs. The public 

now knows that Browning's prediction was scientifically 

unfounded and that their agitation was needless. To avoid 

a backlash of apathy in regard to regional earthquake preparedness, it is important that the public understand the 

story of how the Browning episode occurred. 

Inevitably, some future predictions of major earthquakes will be legitimate. It is also inevitable that amateurs and quasi-scientists will continue to make 

questionable predictions of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and other natural hazards. How can we 

use what has been learned from the Browning episode to 

better serve the public when future predictions of geologic 

hazards are made? To help answer this, we review the 

main factors that led to undue visibility for Browning's 

prediction. 

Mainstream science verifies its conclusions through 

evidence and arguments given to an audience of peer 

research scientists, through verification of results by independent workers, and through successful predictions based 

on the new conclusions. In the case of Browning's prediction, there was no history of detailed publication, no replication of results, and no successful prediction. Browning's 

prediction of a New Madrid earthquake for December 3, 

1990, made the leap from hypothesis to prediction without 

the intervening process of showing verifiable evidence and 

hypothesis testing that makes mainstream science a viable 

and successful discipline. Browning never presented the 
REFLECTIONS 21 

basis of this specific earthquake prediction for examination 

by experts in the difficult field of earthquake prediction, 

yet many persons outside of mainstream science gave him 

credit for a legitimate earthquake prediction. 

Because seismologists early recognized that the 

Browning prediction was based on faulty arguments, they 

tended to ignore its existence. Many 

quickly move from professional colleagues to also include 

a broad segment of the media and the public. Seismologists are learning how to adapt their style of communication to effectively transmit information about a predicted 

earthquake to the media and to a broad segment of the 

public. To maintain a science-driven identity for a prediction, a steady flow of general news 

seismologists did not want to dignify 

the prediction by addressing it and 

"hoped it would eventually blow 

away" [12-3-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Jackson)]. Although regional 

seismologists countered Browning's 

prediction, they generally did so to a 

limited group of preparedness 

authorities, while doing a poor job 

of presenting information to the 

media [ 12-4-90, Arkansas Gazette 

(Reinan)]. Mainstream scientists 

largely became spot information 

sources for the media, to add authenticity to a story that really was about 

the news of the prediction rather 

than testing the scientific basis for 

the prediction. 

The media heard from 

scientists * * * that 

"earthquakes cannot 

be predicted [interpreted as Browning 

cannot be right] 

but there always 

about a prediction must be matched 

by a steady flow of material from the 

scientific community relating to the 

prediction. 

Many emergency preparedness 

officers at all levels openly 

embraced the possibility that Browning's predicted earthquake might 

occur. The great amount of information on what to do in case of an 

earthquake, disseminated from the 

media, emergency preparedness 

groups, churches, stores, insurance 

agencies, and other sources (appendix E) unwittingly added credibility 

to the Browning prediction. Many 

emergency planners did not grasp 

the authoritative scientists' rejection 

is a possibility of a 

damaging earthquake 

[interpreted as Browning might be right]." 

The only person with appropriate scientific credentials 

who supported consideration of Browning's prediction was 

David Stewart, and it was Stewart to whom the media 

turned to try to authenticate Browning's prediction. This 

allowed reporters to portray Browning's prediction as having merit, being one side of a reasonable debate between 

two schools of scientific thinking. There was enough 

regional awareness of earthquake risk and there were 

enough catchy phrases in Browning's (and Stewart's) 

statements to arouse the attention of some of the media. 

Scientists were reluctant to publicly attack either the statements or the credibility of Browning or Stewart, possibly 

due to feelings of collegiality or to considerations of academic freedom. 

The uncoordinated renunciations of Browning's prediction by mainstream scientists were ineffective, partly 

because saying that there will be no major earthquake is 

less newsworthy than saying that the earthquake will 

occur. The media heard from many scientists and emergency preparedness planners that "earthquakes cannot be 

predicted [interpreted as Browning cannot be right] but 

there always is a possibility of a damaging earthquake in 

the New Madrid seismic zone [interpreted as Browning 

might be right]." This equivocal response failed to emphatically address the great improbability of Browning's 

predicted earthquake and left the nonscientific public without sufficient basis for an informed decision. 

Seismologists know that a predicted earthquake can 

be of great public concern and that their audience can 

of Browning's prediction. Because emergency preparedness officers lacked coordinated information upon which 

to base their responses, most acted autonomously during 

the Browning episode. 

The media and public had an appetite for the success 

of a non-mainstream and sensational pronouncement. For 

many members of the media, the value of Browning's prediction largely was based on its considerable news value, 

rather than its factual merit. Investigative journalism was 

present only in several well-developed newspaper articles. 

Leading science writers tended to ignore Browning's prediction, and many members of the media who did cover 

this story were unable to place the prediction in the context of the difficult field of earthquake prediction [ 11-30-

90; Courier-Journal]. For several months prior to December 3, 1990, most regional newspapers carried many stories relating to the prediction, serving to elevate the 

already high public awareness. The conflicting and sometimes sensational stories coming from TV, radio, and print 

media were confusing. George Kennedy, a journalism professor at the University of Missouri at Columbia, said, 

"We were participating in a media feeding frenzy. There 

was * * * a kind of momentum and a level of fascination 

that is irrational" [12-9-90, St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Hernon and Allen)]. William Booth, science writer for the 

Washington Post, said "The media got taken for a ride," 

elaborating that even major national publications were 

guilty of treating the earthquake forecast uncritically, 

thereby giving it undue credibility [11-30-90, Courier-
22 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO., EARTHQUAKE 

Journal]. Jim Paxton, editor of the Paducah Sun, wrote 

"People observing this situation from afar will never fully 

appreciate the breadth and the reality of the suffering we 

in the press and other media helped to cause in the Midwest by our mishandling of this story" [1-91, ASNE Bulletin]. What began as an interesting story, but one not 

given particular credibility, evolved into a contagion that 

promoted Browning's prediction. Many educated and otherwise sensible people were caught up in believing that 

perhaps Browning was right. New York's finest ad agency 

couldn't have done it better. 

lowered level of public agitation in the greater Memphis 

region, apparently resulting from the repeated rebuttals of 

Browning's prediction that came from Memphis State University. Based on the "alert" system, a team of 2-4 persons 

from university and government groups could quickly be 

assigned to coordinate preparation of clear, focused, and 

authoritative information on the prediction. This information should be disseminated to appropriate print, television, 

and radio reporters and to the entire pyramid of emergency 

preparedness personnel. Doing so would give these perUltimately then, Browning's 

prediction became an example of 

pseudo-science overwhelming mainstream science. After the public perception became "we don't know 

what to think about the Browning 

prediction, but we'd better make 

preparations just in case," the prediction had a credibility of its own and 

would not be judged until December 

3 had passed. Thus the unequivocal 

denunciation of the Browning predicThus the unequivocal 

denunciation of the 

Browning prediction 

* * * was too late and 

generally too little 

publicized to have 

much effect. 

sons and their agencies concrete 

information upon which to base their 

responses. Preparing a video that 

summarizes in very plain language 

the important elements of the situation could be particularly effective. 

So might a series of radio interviews 

with mainstream scientists and a 

series of public service announcements. In the case of Browning's 

prediction, rebuttals throughout the 

entire affected region could have 

tion by the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation 

Council was too late and generally too little publicized to 

have much effect in calming the agitated populace of 

America's heartland. A similar case occurred for Peru in 

1980-81, when delayed scientific judgment of a falsely 

predicted earthquake allowed Peruvian and international 

media to give that prediction a tumultuous, 11/2-year-long 

life of its own. 33 

What could have been done to encourage more appropriate responses to the Browning prediction? Because the 

prediction purportedly was scientifically based, its judgment and resolution should have been dominated by evaluations from the scientific community. The New Madrid 

experience has shown that ignoring an earthquake prediction that has significant media coverage runs the risk of 

giving the prediction a life of its own. Once media coverage began to accelerate, a strong rebuttal should have followed immediately. These rebuttals should have continued 

as long as the media gave significant supporting coverage 

of the prediction. In this case, the process would have 

been straightforward. The prediction itself was without 

scientific merit, and Browning lacked qualifications to predict an earthquake. These vital facts should have been 

explained simply but authoritatively.34 

Some kind of an "alert" system is needed whereby 

press officers of agencies alert their leadership to building 

media coverage of an invalid prediction of a natural hazard. Then, it is essential that this leadership respond in an 

active way to tum the tide of building media coverage. 

Evidence that such an approach could be successful is the 

done much to counter the continual, 

but not very informative press coverage. Coordinated with 

such an "alert" system, a highly authoritative group of 

experts could be asked to render a rapid judgment. 

Throughout such a process, according to Showalter and 

Riebsame,35 of the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Information Center, it is important to "anticipate 

media behavior, understand their information needs, and 

work with them to temper the worst aspects of reporting: 

failure to discriminate among sources, sensationalism, and 

superficial treatment. * * * Professionals must critique 

unprofessional approaches without being seen as obstructing the public's right to know."35 Meanwhile, as suggested 

by Brian Mitchell, occasional workshops that bring 

together researchers, reporters, and preparedness officers 

could help establish personal and information networks to 

facilitate coordinated distribution of scientific information 

on risk from natural hazards. 

When another prediction, whether valid or invalid, of 

a natural catastrophe attracts an escalating media coverage 

the Browning experience suggests that society will benefit 

from rapid and coordinated information from the scientific 

community. Such reliable and effectively packaged scientific information should be passed continuously to the 

print, TV, and radio media, and to the extended community of emergency preparedness planners. Persons in these 

fields are trained to take action and to communicate and 

thus could be powerful spokespersons for scientifically 

based conclusions. Such a chain of events would make the 

public better informed and, perhaps, prevent future incidents similar to the Browning episode. 
RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID. MO .. EARTHQUAKE 23 

SUMMARY 

Why was Browning's prediction taken seriously? 

• Awareness of the huge 1811-12 New Madrid earthquakes and modem studies in the area. 

• Heightening of Midwestern earthquake awareness by the 1989 Lorna Prieta (or "World Series") earthquake. 

• Public debate in Memphis and St. Louis concerning need for seismic building codes. 

• Browning's image and his claimed successful predictions. 

• Independent endorsement of the prediction by a perceived reliable authority. 

• Inexperience of regional scientists, media, and public with earthquake pseudo-science. 

• Failure of seismologists to actively refute the prediction. 

• Media need for a good story. 

• Public appetite for success of a non-mainstream pronouncement. 

• Summer 1990 release of FEMA report on hypothetical earthquake losses in St. Louis. 

• Magnitude 4.7 earthquake near Cape Girardeau, Mo., on September 26, 1990. 

• Increasing media coverage on earthquake topics. 

• Broadcast, in mid-November 1990, of a television mini-series about an earthquake disaster. 

• Tardiness of NEPEC' s debunking of prediction. 

• Autonomous action by emergency preparedness officers. 

• Distribution of much earthquake preparedness information without any disclaimer of Browning's prediction. 

• Great number of school closings. 

Lessons leanzed: 

• In-house press officers need to alert scientific management to increasing media coverage. 

• Scientific management must respond to and have evaluated promptly any earthquake prediction that attracts 

increasing media coverage. 

• Media need reliable and appropriately packaged information. Media need to verify sources and to interview 

independent experts. 

• Entire pyramid of emergency preparedness officers needs reliable and appropriately packaged information. 

• Publicity surrounding a predicted earthquake must be actively coordinated. 

• Release of emergency preparedness information may unwittingly endorse an unfounded prediction. Preparedness information must include authoritative evaluation of the prediction. 

REFERENCES 

1 Winkless, Nels, III, and Browning, Iben, 1975, Climate and the 

affairs of man: New York. Harper's Magazine Press, 228 p. 

--1978, Robots on your doorstep (a book about thinking 

machines): Portland, Robotics Press, 178 p. 

Browning, Iben, and Garriss, Evelyn, 1981. Past and future 

history-A planner's guide: Burlington, Vt.. Fraser 

Publishing Co., 381 p. 

Aaron, Anne, and Browning, Iben, 1988. AIDS: Albuquerque. 

N. Mex., Sapiens Press, 171 p. 2 Seismological Society of America, 1983, Guidelines for 

earthquake predictors: Bulletin of the Seismological Society 

of America, v. 73, no. 6, p. 1955-1956. 

3 Hubbell, Sue, 1991, Earthquake fever: The New Yorker, 

February 11, 1991, p. 75-84. 4 Davison, Charles, 1927, The founders of seismology: New 

York, Cambridge University Press, 240 p. 

5 Heaton, T.H., 1975, Tidal triggering of earthquakes: 

Geophysical Journal, v. 43, no. 2, p. 307-326. 

Weems, R.E., and Perry, W.H., Jr., 1989, Strong correlation of 

major earthquakes with solid-earth tides in part of the eastern 

United States: Geology, v. 17, p. 661-664. 

6 Knopoff. Leon, 1964, Earth tides as a triggering mechanism for 

earthquakes: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of 

America, v. 54, no. 6. p. 1865-1870. 

Hartzell, Stephen, and Heaton, Thomas, 1989, The fortnightly 

tide and the tidal triggering of earthquakes: Bulletin of the 

Seismological Society of America. v. 79, no. 4, p. 1282-

1286. 

7 Heaton, T.H., 1982, Tidal triggeting of earthquakes: Bulletin of 

the Seismological Society of America, v. 72, no. 6, p. 2181-

2200. 

8 Rice, J.R., and Tse, S.T., 1986, Dynamic motion of a single 

degree of freedom system following a rate and state 

dependent friction law: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 

91, no. B1, p. 521-530. 

9 Roosen, R.G., Harrington. R.S., Giles, James, and Browning, 

Iben, 1976, Earth tides, volcanoes. and climate change: 

Nature. v. 261, p. 680-682. 
24 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

10 Johnston, A.C., and Kanter, L.R., 1990, Earthquakes in 

stable continental crust: Scientific American, v. 262, no. 3, 

p. 68-75. 

11 Johnston, A.C., in press, The stable continental regional data 

base, in Coppersmith, K.J., and others, eds., Methods for 

assessing maximum earthquakes in eastern U.S.: Palo Alto, 

Calif., Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI Report RP2556-12. 

12 Nuttli, O.W., 1973, The Mississippi Valley earthquakes of 1811 

and 1812-Intensities, ground motion and magnitudes: 

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 63, no. 

1, p. 227-248. 

13 Fuller, M.L., 1912, The New Madrid earthquake: U.S. 

Geological Survey Bulletin 494, 112 p. (reprinted 1988 by 

the Central United States Earthquake Consortium, Memphis, 

Tenn.). 

14 Hamilton, R.M., and Johnston, A.C., 1990, Tecumseh's 

prophecy-Preparing for the next New Madrid earthquake: 

U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1066, 30 p. 

15 Penick, J.L., Jr., 1981, The New Madrid earthquakes (revised 

edition): Columbia, Mo., University of Missouri Press, 176 

p. 

16 Nuttli, O.W., 1973, Seismic wave attenuation and magnitude 

relations for eastern North America: Journal of Geophysical 

Research, v. 78, p. 876-885. 

17 Stauder, William, Kramer, Mark, Fischer, Gerard, Schaefer, 

Stephen, and Morrissey, S.T., 1976, Seismic characteristics 

of southeast Missouri as indicated by a regional telemetered 

microearthquake array: Bulletin of the Seismological 

Society of America, v. 66, no. 6, p. 1953-1964. 

18 Hildenbrand, T.G., Kane, M.F., and Hendricks, J.D., 1982, 

Magnetic basement in the Upper Mississippi embayment 

region-A preliminary report, in McKeown, F.A., and 

Pakiser, L.C., eds., Investigations of the New Madrid, 

Missouri, earthquake region: U.S. Geological Survey 

Professional Paper 1236, p. 37-53. 

19 Al-Shukri, H.J., and Mitchell, B.J., 1990, Three-dimensional 

attenuation structure in and around the New Madrid seismic 

zone: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 

80,no.3,p.615-632. 

20 Saucier, R.T., 1989, Evidence for episodic sand-blow activity 

during the 1811-1812 New Madrid (Missouri) earthquake 

series: Geology, v. 17, p. 103-106. 

Obermeier, S.F., 1989, The New Madrid earthquakes-An 

engineering-geologic interpretation of relict liquefaction 

features: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1336-

B, 114 p. 

21 Haller, K.M., and Crone, A.J., 1986, Log of an exploratory 

trench in the New Madrid seismic zone near Blytheville, 

Arkansas: U.S. Geological Survey Miscellaneous Field 

Studies Map MF-1858. 

22 Housner, G. W., 1958, The mechanism of sand blows: Bulletin of 

the Seismological Society of America, v. 48, p. 155-161. 

Manuscript approved for publication March 25, 1992. 

Published in the Central Region, Denver, Colorado 

Photocomposition and cover design by Joan G. Nadeau 

23 Russ, D.P., 1979, Late Holocene faulting and earthquake 

recurrence in the Reelfoot Lake area, northwestern 

Tennessee: Geological Society of America Bulletin, pt. 1, v. 

90, p. 1013-1018. 

24 Nuttli, O.W., 1982, Damaging earthquakes of the central 

Mississippi Valley, in McKeown, F.A., and Pakiser, L.C., 

eds., Investigations of the New Madrid, Missouri, 

earthquake region: U.S. Geological Survey Professional 

Paper1236,p. 13-20. 

25 Saucier, R.T., 1991, Geoarchaeological evidence of strong 

prehistoric earthquakes in the New Madrid (Missouri) 

seismic zone: Geology, v. 19, p. 296-298. 

Leffler, L.M., and Wesnousky, S.G., 1991, Paleoseismic study 

of the southern New Madrid seismic zone by using 

liquefaction features as seismic indicators [abs.]: Eos, v. 72, 

no. 17, p. 196. 

26 Nuttli, O.W., 1984, Average seismic source-parameter relations 

for mid-plate earthquakes: Bulletin of the Seismological 

Society of America, v. 73, no. 2, p. 519-535. 

Liu, Lanbo, Zoback, M.D., and Segall, Paul, 1992, Rapid 

interplate strain accumulation in the New Madrid seismic 

zone, Science, v. 257, p. 1666-1669. 

27 Johnston, A.C., and Nava, S.J., 1985, Recurrence rates and 

probability estimates for the New Madrid seismic zone: 

Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 90, no. B8, p. 6737-

6753. 

Nishenko, S.P., and Bollingt?r, G.A., 1990, Forecasting 

damaging earthquakes in the central and eastern United 

States: Science, v. 249, p. 1412-1416. 

28 Stevens, Jill, 1991, December 3, 1990-The earthquake that 

didn't happen: Natural Hazards Observer, v. 40, no. 4, p. 14-

15. 

29 Bazell, Robert, 1990, A little shaky: New Republic, v. 203, no. 

24, December 10, p. 16-17. 

30 Stewart, D.M., 1975, Is a major earthquake imminent in North 

Carolina centered near Southport?: Geological Society of 

America Abstracts, v. 7, no. 4, p. 540. 

31 Federal Emergency Management Agency, 1990, Estimated 

future earthquake losses for St. Louis City and County, 

Missouri: FEMA Earthquake Hazards Reduction Series, no. 

53, 112 p. and appendixes. 

32 Herrmann, R.B., Mitchell, B.J., Johnston, A.C., and Wiens, 

D.A., 1991, The great New Madrid earthquake of December 

3, 1990-Effects in St. Louis and Memphis [abs.]: 

Seismological Research Letters, v. 62, no. 1, p. 47. 

33 Olson, R.S., Podesta, Bruno, and Nigg, J.M., 1989, The politics 

of earthquake prediction: Princeton, N.J., Princeton 

University Press, 187 p. 

34 Kerr, R.A., 1991, The lessons of Dr. Browning: Science, v. 253, 

p. 622-623. 

35 Showalter, Pam, and Riebsame, William, 1991, Seismic 

soothsaying, messages from New Madrid: Natural Hazards 

Observer, v. 15, no. 4, p. 1-2. 

Graphics by Wayne Hawkins 

Editing and book design by Peter L. Martin 

Layout by Peter L. Martin, Joan G. Nadeau, and William Spence 
APPENDIX A 

WRITINGS AND SPEECHES OF IBEN BROWNING 

AND DAVID STEWART 

CONTENTS 

Portion of the Browning Newsletter, including copy of the 

handwritten table of "Dates of Geological Danger" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 

Stewart's memorandum of June 18, 1990, "Dr. Iben Browning and 

the possibility of a damaging earthquake, December 3, 1990, 

on the New Madrid fault"......................................................... 29 

Advertisement for Browning's video, attached to Stewart's 

memorandum .......................................................................... 33 

Text ofBrowning's October 31, 1989, talk in Chicago, including 

projection ofNew Madrid earthquake ..................................... 35 

Part ofBrowning's December 8, 1989, talk to the Faultless Starch/ 

Bon Ami company, Kansas City .............................................. 37 

Page ofbrochure advertising Browning's post-prediction video ......... 40 
26 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

~~~ECATEGOni~OFITEMSMeh~t~lni~~ro~~n~~N~ew~s=k~t~~~t:~~~~~~~~~~~~~--~~~~~--~~~~~ 

I. Viorld reports covering In parlicular: 1\. Climate. B. Bel,ovior, C. Commodllies 2. Original papers 3. Historical perspl!cllves. 

Copyright lben Browning November 21, 1989 Vol. 13, No. H 

This newsletter containa articles, obaervations and facts to support our contention that Han is significantly influenced by the climate 

in ~tich he exists. 

Our calculations show the climate, over the next term, will cause 

dramatic changes in our social and-economic patterns. 

We feel that the reader, attuned to the changes which are occurring, may develop a competitive edge; and, by understanding his now and 

future environment, can use the momentum of change to his advantage.· 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

EARTHQUAKE, 1989--A discussion of the flurry of 

earthquakes in the last quarter of 1989, and a TABLE 

that gives dates of Geological Danger frarn high tidal 

forces that could trigger earthquakes and/or volcanoes ••• Page 1 

THE WEATHER OF 1992- 1993: A CONTINGENCY ARTICLE--A 

review of the driving forces to be in place in time to 

produce the weather of 1992 - 1993~ and the probable 

pattern of that weather •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Page 4 

NEWSNOTES--•••••••• ~ ••.•••••••••••••••••••.•••••••••••••• Page 6 

Some people want me- to-put my -tr-avel 

rtewslett-er, -everi if the ·meetings 

schedule 

are not 

in the 

pub lie. 

6 DEC 1989 Executives, Detroit, MI 

8 DEC 1989 Faultless Starch/Bon Ami, Kansas City,l-10 

12 DEC 1989 Gov. Conf. on Agric., Osage Beach, MO 

20 DEC 1989 Hold; Amarillo, TX 

This is the end of an era. Henceforth, my travels 

will be very much reduced. 

EARTHQUAKES, 1989 

There have been earthquakes) 

A client and friend of mine called me 

to any -that the chart that I gave him 3 

or 4 years ago missed the time of the San 

Francisco earthquake several hours. (He 

will permit me to give his name and phone 

number to people who feel the need to have 

him verify this statement: He is an executive in an insurance company.) 

TABLE I in this article is the chart 

he spoke of. I worked it up for an international tour that I did in December of 

1985. 

First, note that the most dangerous 

dates in the first group are all at the 

New Moon; the most dangerous dates of the 

second group are all at the Full Moon. 

Dangerous, here, is defined as the times 

of highest "vector sum high tidal forces". 

I was silly putting in decimal fractions 

of days, because earthquakes and volcanoes 

are simply not that precise; but that is 

what the first numbers are. Then the 

month is listed, then the -.}ear. The asterisks are intended to reflect two 

things: the relative height of the high 

Reprinted with permission of Evelyn M. Garriss. 1. 
APPENDIX A-WRITINGS AND SPEECHES OF BROWNING AND STEW ART 

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28 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

~&LU ~WIU!_.UIU_.l_I_Q_'-W~l-1·~ - . 

tidal force, and the length of time since 

the tidal force was that high. Each of 

these factors has to do with the tidal 

force finding a geological event far 

enough developed to be triggered. 

Second, note that the high tidal 

force of 31 Dec. 1986 at 30° S. Latitude 

was the high tidal force that Evelyn refered to in last month~s Newsletter, around 

which, over a 5 year period, 45% of all 

the world's volcanic activity occurred, 

even though the Southern Hemisphere has 

only 1/3 of the world's volcanoes. Note 

also, that since the 31 Dec. 1986 high 

tidal force, only 5 out of the 17 volcanoes (listed by Evelyn in the September 

Newsletter) were in the Southern llemisphere. We have entered the era of intensive volcanic activity in the Northern 

Hemisphere. 

Third, note that the day listed o.n 

the TABLE was 17 Oct. 1989--the very day 

of the San Francisco earthquake (a 7.1). 

That was a Tuesday. 

Late Saturday, a moderate quake had 

been reported from Japan, then, in quick 

succession, there was._a small earthquake 

outside of Rome (18 October), and several 

moderate quakes in China (19 October), and 

fu~~h~r_sm~11-_quakes __ it1 Japan·;- Nicar.agua, 

and JRva. The Solomon Is. had a 7.2 

earthquake on 28 October, Algiers a 6.0 on 

30 October, and Japan had a. 7.3 on that 

same day. Once it started, it seemed like 

the world opened up. Normally, there are 

5 or 6 Richter 7s per year. This brought 

on 3 in 2 weeks. 

Santiago, Chile shook on 9 Nov., and 

there were more Japanese earthquakes, and 

in Southeast Iran ·and in Wellington, New 

Zealand in the first week of November. 

Earlier in the year (July) there had 

been two volcanoes go off in Japan, one in 

Colombia and one in Guatemala. 

There were solar flares at· the same 

time, and a Russian scientific meeting saw 

some scientists proposing that the 

earthquakes were caused by solar flares. 

The readers of this Newsletter will 

recognize that they were warned long ago 

that there would be a peak in tidal forces 

and of sunspots--two cau~ally unrelated 

matte-rs--occurring simultaneously at about 

this time. 

An Executive of an organization to 

which I spoke on 10 October 1989 wrote me 

as follows: 

"It is doubtful that anyone that 

heard you speak will ever forget your 

forecast of a major earthquake, volcano or 

both on October 16 plus or minus a day or 

two. This was a dramatic enough statement 

but the San Francisco earthquake make it 

"lifetime memorable." 

"Now what is concerning people is 

that the earthquake forecast wa~ a precursor for being on track for other forecasts about natural disasters and severe 

weather in the coming years." 

Another quote that I will call to 

your attention is from Robert Prechter's 

The Elliott Wave Theorist. 

"ONE WHO PREDICTED THE EARTHQUAKE 

During the second week of October, I 

took a trip first to San Francisco, and 

then to western Canada to visit A.J. and 

·Frances Frost. I was mindful of the fact 

that it would be a good idea to be out of 

San Francisco by the weekend because for 

weeks, the 16th on my calendar was marked, 

"Iben Browning earthquake." On Saturday 

~he 14th,_~eyere all aitting in _A.J.'s 

-living -room and- the entire hou·se shook. 

"Wow," I said, "that's probably a preshock!" (The Frosts live on the same 

fault line.) We discussed Iben Browning's 

forecast for awhile. I returned on Sunday. The following Tuesday.made.•history. 

What bothers me is that no one reported 

Browning's feat. This man has been 

accurately projecting volcanic and 

earthquake activity for years based primarily on the timing of peak tidal forces. 

What interests me is that he also relates 

such activity to changes in farming success and cycles of boom and depression. 

His fascinating "Browning Newsletter" is 

available from Fraser Publishing, P.O. Box 

494, Burlington VT 05402 for $225 a year. 

I highly recommend it. 

AROUND THE GLOWING 

COALS OF A BRAZIER, 

OLD HEN 

TELL TALES OF EARTHQUAKES. 

--KYOROKU" 

I'm grateful that Bob noticed. 

3. 
APPENDIX A-WRITINGS AND SPEECHES OF BROWNING AND STEW ART 29 

[Editor's note: The following has been retyped for legibility but is word-for-word identical to the original] 

DATE: June 18, 1990 

MEMO TO: Harvey Ryland, Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium, Memphis 

Walt Hayes, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA 

RD. Ross, Missouri Emergency Management Agency, Jefferson City 

Arch Johnston, Center for Earthquake Research & Information, Memphis State University 

Brian Mitchell, Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, St. Louis University 

lben Browning, Private Consultant, Albuquerque, NM 

FROM: David Stewart, Center for Earthquake Studies, Southeast Missouri State University, 

Cape Girardeau 

RE: Dr.lben Browning and the possibility of a damaging earthquake, December 3, 1990, on the 

New Madrid Fault 

Since October 17, 1989, following the Lorna Prieta 

earthquake in California, the news media has widely 

publicized a statement by Dr. lben Browning, wording it in 

the form of a prediction of a large earthquake to occur 

December 3, 1990, on the New Madrid Fault. 

I visited with Dr. Browning in Albuquerque, New 

Mexico, May 18-19, 1990, and have had several phone 

conversations with him as well, before and since our May 

meeting. While in Albuquerque I met his wife, Florence, 

and also his daughter, Evelyn Garriss, who lives nearby 

and who has been trained in Dr. Browning's methods. Dr. 

Browning's address is: P.O. Drawer 130, Sandia Park, NM 

87047. His phone is (505) 281-2692. 

I also have had telephone conversations with six 

people who have known and/or worked with Dr. Browning 

for some years. These individuals are familiar with Dr. 

Browning's past track record of predictions or projections 

in many areas including earthquakes, volcanoes, climate, 

crop futures, market trends, and political forecasts. They 

are as follows: Eric Watson, President, Environmental 

Engineering Concepts, Inc., Palm Springs, CA, (619) 

322-1111; Roger Spencer, First Vice President, PaineWebber, Inc., Chicago, IL, (312) 580-8215; Judith Seime, 

Research Assistant, Paine-Webber, Inc., Chicago, IL, 

(312) 580-8215; Dr. Don Isenberg, Chief Scientist, 

Microbics, Inc., California, (619) 438-8282; Emmitt 

Barker, President, Farm & Industrial Equipment Institute, 

Chicago, (312) 321-1470; Bill Galbraith, Executive Vice 

President, North American Equipment Dealers Association, St. Louis, (314) 821-7220. I encourage you to call as 

many of these people as you wish. There are literally 

hundreds of people who have heard Dr. Browning's 

predictions before the fact that you can call to verify what 

follows in this statement. 

Mr. Watson has known Dr. Browning for at least the 

last five years inasmuch as he has been the chairman of the 

Blanchard Conference, a gathering of 2500-3000 business 

leaders, for the last several years and has introduced Dr. 

Browning as one of the featured and favorite speakers at 

that conference, which is always in New Orleans each 

year. Mr. Watson has also had other contacts with Dr. 

Browning through the years and earlier in 1990 made a 

100 minute video tape of Dr. Browning's latest projections 

and forecasts in many areas, but including commentary on 

the New Madrid Fault and the December 3, 1990, date. I 

have a complete copy of this tape, which is available from 

Mr. Watson. It is copyrighted and proprietary, but Mr. 

Watson kindly sent me a complimentary copy (it will be 

retailed for $99 a copy). I have permission to distribute the 

excerpts regarding the New Madrid Fault to selected 

people. Enclosed is a promotional flyer regarding this tape 

and its commercial availability. For the New Madrid 

excerpts, just send the Center for Earthquake Studies a 

blank 1/2 inch VHS tape and we Will copy those excerpts 

for you free of charge. 

Mr. Watson's reason for such a long tape stems from 

the fact that Dr. Browning has not been in good health for 

the last seven years and can no longer travel to speak. His 

last appearance at the Fall 1990 [sic] Blanchard Conference was via video in which, I am told, he mentioned the 

upcoming earthquake in California which did actually 

occur. (October 17, 1990 [sic].) Dr. Browning's current 

invitations to speak are now covered by his daughter, 

Evelyn Garriss. It is possible that this 100 minute tape 

produced by Mr. Watson could well be Dr. Browning's last 

major public statement. 

Mr. Spencer is an agricultural futures specialist and 

climatologist and has known lben Browning for some 

twenty years and has worked closely with him on behalf of 

Paine-Webber. 

Judith Seirne is a research associate in Mr. Spencer's 

office of Paine-Webber, who, for the past seven years has 

worked closely with Dr. Browning in processing and 

distributing his forecasts for Paine-Webber clients. During 
30 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

the course of Dr. Browning's long consulting association 

with Paine-Webber, he visited Chicago several times a 

year and for the last several years worked with Judith 

Seime. 

Dr. Don Isenberg is a biochemist and a friend of lben 

Browning's for the past twenty years or so. Dr. Browning 

was having dinner with Dr. Isenberg and some others on 

the evening of February 8, 1971, in the Los Angeles area 

when he remarked to the group, "This is going to be an 

interesting evening. We are probably going to have an 

earthquake." Early the next morning the 6.4 San Fernando 

earthquake occurred. 

Emmitt Barker and Bill Galbraith were both at a 

national meeting in San Francisco, October 10-12, 1989, 

accompanied by 400-500 other CEO's from companies 

that comprise the heavy and agricultural equipment 

industry. They both heard Dr. Browning's forecast of the 

Lorna Prieta Earthquake which occurred October 17, 

within 24 hours of the October 16 date given by Dr. 

Browning and within the 48 hour window that Dr. 

Browning had indicated a week before. 

The information I present here is based upon conversations with all of the foregoing people and upon materials 

provided to me by Eric Watson, Roger Spencer, Judith 

Seime, and Dr. Browning, himself, who was very generous 

in what he shared with me. 

A Summary of Key Points 

The central point and summary of all my investigations at this time is this: Dr. Browning is highly respected 

within the business and investment community. His 

forecasts have been found highly reliable in many areas. 

His integrity is said to be beyond reproach. His accuracy is 

said by various people to be 50% at worst, and 90% or 

better most of the time. That he was correct in the Lorna 

Prieta event is a verifiable fact. He was also apparently 

correct within a few days in predicting the eruption of Mt. 

St. Helens, May 18, 1980. In this latter instance he was 

speaking before a group of several hundred in Portland, 

Oregon, on May 13, 1980, when he told them it would go 

"in about a week." This pronouncement was caught on 

video tape and used by Paine-Webber in national 

advertising for their firm as proof of the accuracy of their 

consultants. His calculations had also picked the dates of 

September 19, 1985, and November 13, 1985, upon which 

the Mexico City earthquake and the Novado del Ruiz 

volcano eruption in Columbia respectively occurred. 

These, plus his 1971 prediction of the San Fernando 

earthquake 24 hours ahead of time, indicate that what Dr. 

Browning is doing cannot be explained merely by chance. 

Although, his accuracy is not 100%, his methodology does 

seem to be promising and worthy of serious and thorough 

consideration. 

What is Dr. Browning's Methodology? 

Browning starts with astronomica:I ca:Iculations of the 

vector sum of tidal forces from the sun and moon. To my 

knowledge his exact method has never been tried or 

published in the conventional scientific journals such as 

the "Bulletin of the Seismologica:I Society of America," the 

"Journal of Geophysica:I Research," etc. Seismologists 

have attempted to correlate tidal forces with earthquake 

triggering many times, but none, so far as I can ascertain, 

have done what he has done. 

Most use the vertica:I components only or use simple 

moon phases. Dr. Browning's data come from ca:Iculations 

by the U.S. Naval Observatory in cooperation with an 

associate there (Harrington, with whom he co-authored a 

paper). 

These ca:Iculations are latitude-specific. There are 

many basic and beat frequencies of the solar/lunar tidal 

forces and these all depend on latitude, the earth's inclination, the nearness of the sun (perihelion), the nearness of 

the moon (perigee), the alignment of sun and moon, and 

the ecliptic cycles. There is a basic 78 year period at the 

equator and a 178 year period in higher latitudes. It is the 

vector sum maxima at specific latitudes, not vertical 

components only (which control ocean tides), that seem to 

correlate with earthquakes and volcanic activity. 

To this point, Dr. Browning's methodology is 

amenable to the scientific method. By obtaining a set of 

ca:Iculations for vector sum tidal forces at a specific 

latitude, one should be able to do a historica:I investigation 

around the world for that latitude (actually a band of 

latitudes) to see if, in fact, surges of earthquake and/or 

volcanic activity do occur at those times. 

The astronomica:I ca:Iculations, according to Browning, only identify a band of latitudes where maximum tidal 

forces will occur on given dates. At this point, Browning 

says he then must rely upon geologic and seismologic 

information to find those places within the latitudes 

indicated that will be ready to go next. 

For example, last October Dr. Browning was aware of 

the 1988 forecasts by the U.S. Geological Survey on the 

San Andreas Fault and was specifically aware of the Santa 

Cruz portion. His date, "October 17, 1989, at about 10:45 

a.m." was first published in 1985 (I have a copy he had 

sent to Paine-Webber in December, 1985). His public 

statement last Fall before the event was that the quake 

would be "October 16 + or- a day or two." October 17, 

1989, 5:04 p.m. is when it actually happened. When the 

October 17 date was first published in 1985, I don't think 

he had identified which fault would go. Only the date and 

latitude band (30 degrees- 60 degrees North Latitude) had 

been identified. This band includes all of California, 

China, Japan, the Mediterranean Sea, and the New Madrid 

Fault. 
APPENDIX A-WRITINGS AND SPEECHES OF BROWNING AND STEW ART 31 

I do not understand entirely how he concluded that of 

these possibilities, it would be the Santa Cruz portion of 

the San Andreas to go then. But he did draw that conclusion and was right. I don't know why the Parkfield reach 

of the San Andreas did not go then, which is the one the 

U.S. Geological Survey has been predicting will go any 

time between 1984 and 1992 and still hasn't happened. 

Why not the New Madrid Fault at that time? Why not 

Japan, China, or the Mediterranean? 

Somehow, he correctly picked the fault just south of 

San Francisco and claims that he was then using the 

published forecasts of the U.S.G.S. I am not sure to what 

extent his methodology is scientific at that point and how 

much is intuition or a very sophisticated rational judgment 

on his part. We just have to keep coming back to the fact 

that he was right. 

The identification of a latitude band under periodic 

tidal forces, vector sum maxima, as they correlate with 

seismic activity, can be scientifically verified. The selection of which volcanoes and/or faults will become active in 

those latitude bands is something considerably more 

difficult, it seems to me. How Dr. Browning really does it, 

I do not know. 

What are Dr. Browning's Qualifications? 

lben Browning has a bachelor's degree in mathematics and physics and a Ph.D. in microbiology. He holds 67 

patents and has written three books. The last one is 

entitled, "Past and Future History," co-authored with his 

daughter, Evelyn Garriss, and is available from Fraser 

Publishing Company, a division of Fraser Management 

Associates, Inc., Box 494, Burlington, Vermont 05402. 

Among other things, this book contains a graph showing 

the annual release of earthquake energy (Don Anderson's 

data from Cal Tech) for the past century or two and how 

that closely corresponds with the ups and downs of tidal 

forces. Dr. Browning has done work in genetics research, 

climatology, biophysics, and other fields, and was a test 

pilot at the Air Force Base in Victorville, California, 

during World War II. 

His friends say he is a "genius," has an I.Q. of 200," 

and seems to have "total recall." He was confined to the air 

base in World War II and instead of spending his evenings 

drinking at the officer's club, he memorized large portions 

of the Encyclopedia Britannica. After spending hours with 

him in Albuquerque, I would not have any difficulty in 

believing in his "genius" or his "200 I.Q." His mental 

abilities, even now at age 72 and in failing health, are far 

more acute thait mine have ever been. He is, perhaps, the 

most intelligent person I have ever met. 

The fact that I am, at this point, unable to fully 

comprehend his method is partly due to the fact that what 

he is doing is not really simple, but very complex, and that 

it would take an intelligent person some time and effort to 

fully grasp what he is doing. Whatever it is he is doing, I 

hope it will not be lost. His daughter will be carrying on 

his work into the future. 

What it boils down to, as regards Dr. Browning's 

qualifications, is this. He is not a seismologist. He is not a 

geologist. He is not formally trained in the fields that 

would traditionally deal with volcanoes and earthquakes. 

Furthermore, I see the applicability of the scientific 

method, as we know it today, only to his vector sum tidal 

force calculations by latitude. Beyond that, the choosing of 

which location within a band of latitudes, I do not fully 

understand, even though he is using available geologic and 

seismologic information from that point. I cannot take his 

data, apply it to known tectonic information, and come up 

with his conclusions. 

As Browning pointed out, the scientific community is 

interested in "qualifications" and "methodology." If the 

credentials are not there and the methodology is not within 

that considered to be "scientific," then the scientific 

community often rejects such. In the business world, 

however, all that counts is results. What is the track 

record? They do not care who is the source or what 

schooling a person may or may not have had. They do not 

care how the information is obtained if it proves reliable. 

In the business world, Dr. Browning has a long track 

record of reliability. At his worst, according to his friends 

and associates, he is 50% right. 

This brings us to consideration of what to do with the 

December 3, 1990, projection for the New Madrid Fault. 

How Credible is the December 3. 1990. Date? 

The December 3, 1990, date + or - 2 days, represents 

a vector sum tidal maximum for latitudes 30 degrees to 60 

degrees North. This includes a majority of the most 

seismic zones of the world. Dr. Browning is concerned 

specifically about Tokyo, Japan, and the New Madrid 

Fault. After hearing of the recently revised probability on 

the Hayward Fault (75% chance of a damaging quake in 

the next 30 years) he is now concerned about that fault, 

also, on December 3. He told me over the phone, in our 

last conversation, June 16, 1990, that he would assign a 

50% chance of each of these, independent of the other and 

that in the aggregate, an 87% probability that at least one 

of these three will go December 3. He is virtually 100% 

certain that some major quake will occur in that band of 

latitudes on or about that date. 

"I can guarantee that the trigger will be pulled on 

December 3, 1990." he said. If a fault is not loaded, it will 

not go off. If it is, then it will release an earthquake and 

the size will depend on the amount ·of strain energy stored 

up." He thinks that the New Madrid zone would produce a 

magnitude 7.0 or greater. 

Dr. Browning points out that the December 3 date is a 

27 year maximum for these latitudes and that within the 
32 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

broader scheme of periods for vector sum tidal forces, it 

marks the return of a 178 year cycle, the last time of which 

occurred in 1812. He also said that if the New Madrid fault 

is ready to go, there may be foreshocks during the 48 hour 

windows about October 9 and November 6, 1990. 

He emphasizes that he does not know for certain. He 

does seem to have strong feelings about the New Madrid 

fault on that date and warns that bridges will likely be out 

along the Mississippi and that the military should have 

pontoon bridges ready to rapidly put in place. He told 

Roger Spencer of Paine-Webber that "one third of the 

buildings in Chicago will be damaged." Roger, and other 

people who know Browning and with whom I spoke, said, 

"I have learned not to bet against Browning." Roger said 

he and his staff plan to take Monday, December 3, off. 

They don't want to be in a Chicago hi-rise building on that 

date. "If it doesn't happen," said Mr. Spencer, "we just got 

a day off. If it does, then we will definitely be better off at 

home." 

What is an Appropriate Response? 

Browning says, "I fear public panic more than I do an 

earthquake. However, I want the public to be forewarned if 

that can be done without panic." He says, I hope that I am 

wrong and that on December 3 I will look like a fool." Dr. 

Browning does not personally think he is wrong, however. 

All of the people I spoke with said he is a very careful man 

and even though he has not always been right, none could 

think of an instance when he made a specific forecast concerning an earthquake or volcano when he was wrong. He 

has been wrong, some said in his short -term climatic 

fQrecasts and in some of his political prognostications. 

Some seismologists have said, "If you make enough 

predictions, you're bound to be right on some of them." I 

disagree. Last October Dr. Browning made a prediction 

that came true. He picked the correct span of time within 

24 hours and estimated the magnitude to be "about 7.0." 

He picked the location. If you simply had the U.S.G.S. 

information that the Santa Cruz part of the San Andreas 

Fault had a 30% probability of a 6.0-7.0 quake in the next 

thirty years and picked a two day interval of time in those 

30 years and were right, as was Dr. Browning, chances of 

this happening would be from one chance in about 2,500 

or, depending on how you consider it, as little as one 

chance in over 100,000. Unless Dr. Browning has been 

making thousands of predictions, being wrong in most of 

them, the idea that "if you make enough predictions, 

you're bound to be right on some of them" is not valid in 

relation to Dr. Browning. 

The fact is that Dr. Browning has not made large 

numbers of predictions (or "projections" as he prefers to 

call them). According to all the sources I checked, he has 

made very few and most have been correct. 

My conclusions are as follows: We believe from the 

work of Arch Johnston, Memphis State University, as 

published in the "Journal of Geophysical Research" in 

1985 that the New Madrid Fault has, in round figures, a 

50% chance of at least a 6.0 or greater by the year 2000. It 

has, perhaps, a 33% chance of a 7.1 and a 1 Oo/o chance of a 

7.6 event by the same year 2000. These are statistical forecasts based upon history, seismographic measurements, 

and paleoseismic data. Dr. Browning's prediction is 

reasonable. Arch Johnston's figures do not favor any 

specific date during the next ten or fifty years, but do speak 

to the possibility that December 3 could be the date ( + or -

2 days). 

From a seismologist's point of view, we cannot say 

December 3 is any more likely than today, tomorrow, or 

ten years from now. Dr. Browning's track record (which is 

not a scientific way to consider things) would suggest that 

perhaps there is a higher probability for a destructive 

earthquake in the New Madrid Fault on December 3, 1990, 

than most other dates in the next few years. According to 

Dr. Browning, chances are 50-50 during that span of time 

(December 1-5, 1990). 

The Missouri and Arkansas National Guards are 

planning earthquake exercises during those dates. Perhaps 

this is the prudent thing to do. If it doesn't happen (and 

chances are it won't), then only an exercise took place 

which would have been scheduled to take place anyhow. If 

it does happen, then everything would be ready. 

THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT OF ALL 

The important thing to realize is that destructive 

earthquakes will happen from time to time in the New 

Madrid Fault. They have happened in the past and they 

will happen again. Whether or not such an event occurs on 

or about December 3, 1990, has nothing to do with the 

necessity for the central United States to prepare for such 

an eventuality. 

We must guard against preparing for a December 3 

earthquake and then if it does not happen (and Dr. 

Browning repeatedly emphasized that it may or may not) 

people become apathetic or indifferent about earthquake 

preparation and do not get ready for what will inevitably 

come at some time, whether December 3 or not. And even 

if such an event does occur on December 3, it won't be the 

last. 

The challenge we have at this point is to put to good 

use whatever Dr. Browning's projection is worth without 

letting it work against the essential earthquake 

preparations we must make in the midwest. 

It will be a tragedy if what Dr. Browning has forecast 

cotnes true on December 3. It could be a worse tragedy if it 

does not happen and people become cynical and 

unmotivated in earthquake preparation so that when the 

destructive quake does come they are not ready. 
At·the1989 

Blanchard New 

Orleans Investment 

Conlare·nca the 

audience 'sat spell- mm;g;:q;;;;t?m-.~-~::..\¥1 bound as Dr. lben Wllllwaoncaalix·lanel~tlllou;hOakla~d:ilnowamnui!Wiacln.taland . a brokln conerltlas Dt Browrii'IQl stJnllng pcld1ction COIIIIS trut. 

~rawning predicted a major earthquake 

would strike North America in 1 0 days time. 

·1Jn October 17, 1989 -1 D days later - San .francisco cowered 

in fear IS Dr. Browning's startling prediction camvrue. 

Dear Friend: 

What does all.this have to do with making 

hand-over-fist Investment profits? 

Why was cliutologist: pr lbtn Browpin& ~r.aking a presentation at an i:tvest:ment 

conferEnce in the firs~ place? · 

Well. if you play your cards right, what Dr. Browning has to say about 

earthquakes, volcanoes and the weather could si&nificantly increase your pe~sonal 

·wealth. Without being overly dramatic:, 1 think I .can aafelJ say that wh&'t he ~s_ to_ 

say -in addition-1:o JD&kirig you a lot of money -·could -very possibly save your life. 

'You'll see why in a minute. 

1he color of sky affects the 

green in your pocket 

Dr. Sro~ing is one of ~his nation's leading climatologists. Simply put. he 

foceeacts long-range weather patterns. On behalf of large corporate clients - such 2s 

Paine Webber and Homestake Florida Co~unity Bank (which fir~nees approximately 50\ 

of Florida's ci~rus growers) -he analy~es the e!fec~ this weather will have on • wide range of econo~e. investment, social and political issues. 

You see, weather is one of the least understood but most vi~al forces impacting 

each of us. 

A drought can devas~ate f&rEland, sending price inflation soaring. When it c~mes 

to the supply and demand relationship for food, supply is the ~ fluctuating 

factor. D~d is constant: ••• ev~rybody hal ~o eat. 

A prolonged cold spell can drive gas and beating oil prices out of sight. 

A major hurricane c: ~arthquake can wreak havoc: with government budgets and ~reaten insurance companies. 

Weather can also be responsible for !IllUsive political upheavals. You have no doubt 

wondered why the Soviets have gotten ao chummy lately. A friendly Soviet, according ~o Browning. is a~ Soviet: drought has yiped oyt their grain reserves. 

And that:'& just the beginning: Dr. Browning ill nov forecasting th~ onset of· the 

ygrst weethe~ in the reco~ded hiGtO[y of the Un;ted States. 

One Eye-Opening Video Tape 

I have just previewed a very special video tape, featuring Dr. Browning. It 

made ~ do a lQt of ~hinking. In some respects, it is frightening. 

But as I watched I couldn't help but furiously scribble notes about ways, with 

just a little effort, I could make one heck of a lot of money ou~ of the 

information I wss hearing. 

For those of you who have heard Dr. B:owning_speak in the past, you can skip 

the rest of this letter and head straight for the order form. I know you'll jump 

at the chance to hear hie again. 

Jut if you have llQl; yet heard Dr. Browning apeak. ~hen the video I am about to 

tell you about will be your best way to meet him .•• to profit·from his incredibly 

accurate predictions ••• and to hear him say i~· 

Dr, Browning, nov 72 years of age, has just: announced hil r•tirement. 

The Lessons Learned In A Brilliant Career 

Dr. :Brg,.,ning won't: be one of those Americans short on retiremen't cash. C•ver 

his incredibly prolific career he ~~s been well paid' by corporations around the 

vorld for his research. He is also the holder of 67 patents - including ones recently granted for high. definition large screen televisi~n and a voice 

compression system used in satellite co~unicat:ions. 

But his retirement: does mean that he'll no lor.ger make his alrea~y infrequent 

public appearances, or write for publication. (Not that you have heard much from 

him any :way_. _Dr._ _l!ro~ing fervently shunc the media: he doesn't like or trust the 

press and -simply refuses most mterviev_nquest$.' 

In fact, the only reason Dr. Browning agreed to cit tprough over an hour of 

probing questions was because he wanted to leave a permanent record for posterity. 

And because he felt it was esse~tial ~hat: Americans pr~pare ~ fo: ~he challenges 

just ahead. 

100 minutes of startling (and 

profitable) predictions 

*Climate and t:he Affairs cf Man,· a 100 minute long video presentation, is 

Dr. Browning's-farewell to the business and invest~ent world. And your ·last opport:uni~y to profit from one of America's true geniuses. 

Here are just • few o£ the enraordins.ry forecasts you'll hear on the video ..• 

J' the specific day and place in the U.S. that an earthquake as =uc:h as Jl 

times stronzer than the San Francisco earthquake w~ll s~rike lare~ this year. 

J' Why we'll see the worst weather in the history of the United States between now and 1994. (ThB weird and destructive weather- floods, tornadoes, 

hurricanes, late sno~s. etc- that we've had over the last couple of years are jus't :i.ld previews of the l•'lprecedented chaos to come.) 

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why we could be o~ the verge of an economic cata£trophe (and a period of 

incredible opportunity) such as hasn't been aeen in this country since tht 

1929 depression. 

Please note that Dr.· Browning is not some sort of •guru• who mystically 

foretells the future. Far from it. He is a nuts and bolts research scientist of the 

first order who has developed easy-to-understand ways of pinpoin~ing climatic 

·~riggers.· 

It is these triggers which. set off earthquakes, volcanoes. and create erratic 

weather. In the video. his methodology is explained in language you can understand •.. 

a methodology that ~As earned him a documented track record of over 90% accuracy. 

I can tell you one thing, if only fifty percent of his forecasts come true ..• we're in for a wild ride these next fgw years. 

How you can profit 

~hie video tape is truly fascinating. So much so that. you'd be happy to pay 

the $99 for this limited production video even if it couldn't make you a lot of 

~ney. But the fact is, it_can. You'll profit in six different ways from your 

copy of Dr. Browning's revealing tape •.• 

1. You'll learn just hew important a role Yeather plays in the affairs of 

man ••• how to forecast·weather trends yourself ••• and how to profit. This 

video will unlock weather's mysteries for you. 

2 . You '11 learn which crops in the next few years will freeze, • • or literally dry 

up and blo-~ tNay ••• allowing you to rup :nega-profits fro'll futures, options and 

.. forward· markets (don't worry, the compuhensiv12 yet quick reading report that 

accompanies the video will tell you eve.rything you need to know about how to 

easily and safely turn Dr. Browning's predictionc into Frofits:). 

3. You '11 learn which industries and specific companies wl see their profits s~r 

as markets fall. You'll learn which to cell row~ '11\e effect Dr. !rowning!s 

forecasts will h8ve on real ·estate ana gold ·a:re also -discussed· in depth~ 

4 You'll learn the~ reason behind the last great de~ression ••. and when 

Dr. Browning is forecasting the next depression to hit. (The last depression 

created more millionaires than any other point in history. We can't prooise 

you millions .•• but with just a little creativity, and cash ••• you could add 

'ignificantly to yo~r net worth.) 

5. If you live in the earthquake zones icentified on the video. this video could 

save your life! You'll definitely want to be out of town on the day. later 

this year. when Dr. Browning is calling for the next big earthquake to 

strike. You'll also want to buy a lot ~reinsurance. The report that 

accompanies the video tells you how to make sure you are adequately protected. 

(Warning: rhe target Eone is na: in California - though some effect may be 

felt there ss well.) 

6. You'll gain priceless insights on a wide range of important current topics ••• 

the horrifying truth aboyt A!DS (Dr. Browning, also a biologist. has studied 

the disease and holds a patent on a new AIDS decontamir.ation device) •.• about 

environmental threats such as Klobal wsrmini .nd boles in the ozone layer ••• 

the real reason for Soviet peace overtures .•• and much.~ more. 

I guarantee- literally. see below- that you von't: want·tO miss this 

opportunity to secure a copy of Dr. Browning's tape. It will give you something to 

think about. and talk •bout, for years. For example, every time one of Dr. 

Browning•c predictions come true. 

A caveat. The video; while of a professional studio quality, is no Hollywood 

production. It is. however. the kind of video you· re going to want to roll up your 

sleeves. grab paper and pen, and watch time and time again. You're going to want 

to share it with family, friends and associates. 

~ And. so you'll be able to act- the video is accompanied by a concise written 

~ that sums up Dr. Browning's investment r~ated forecasts and guides you 

to action. The advice offared is simple, safe and practical. Nothing exotic. 

Hqy li!Uch could you make from tb!fl yid£g? Would you have been happy with a lt.2851 

·net profit in just six weeks? ~t's how much you could have made using a limited 

%isk strategy in advence of the year·end 1989 freeze. when over 40% of nation's 

citrus c:rops were destroyed. Dr. Browning saw it coming months in advance. 

TIME-DATED MATERIAL-ACf FAST 

Because much of the information on this video is time·dated - including Dr. 

Brawning's important 1990 earthquake forecast- it is unlikely that this offer 

will be repeated. 

If you fail to act, you could miss one of.th4 most valuable additions you could 

possibly make to your video library. And one of the most important dnvestment 

decisions you could mnke at this cri~ical juncture of time. 

Send in your payment today, ~. DQn't miss out on this incredible opportunity 

tc see into the future. Act today. 

Sincerely. 

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THE COMING TWO YEARS-1990-1992 

Dr. Iben Browning speaking in Chicago, October 31, 1989 

Dr. Iben Browning is the executive Director of the Thomas Bede 

Foundation. a non-profft contract researth corporation.· Dr. Browning 

consults tn over twenty fields ranging fro- electronics and computers 

to microbfcs and space navfgatfon. He holds 66 patents. has ~rftten 

more than three dozen scientific papers and fs the author of several 

books. He shares hfs knowledge and insights though the Brownfng 

Ne~letter of ~ich he is the author and publisher. Dr. Browning 

received his BA in Hath and Physics from South West Texas State 

Teachers College, his Masters and Doctoral degrees fn Zoology and 

Physiology from the University of Tex1s, Austin. 

For many years, Dr. Browning has periodically talked with PaineWebber 

clients about the ~eather and the political and social implications of 

climatic change. On October 31, 1989, he ~net ~ith a small group in 

Chicago. Those of us ~ho have been priviledged to listen to Dr. 

Browning. and many others ~ho have kept up ~fth his thoughts through 

the printed pieces, have appreciated the opportunitiy~o be 'nfor.ed, 

u well as entertained. The following 1s a sunmary of Dr. Browning's 

recent speech, together ~fth explanations of the phenomena ~hfch, 

according to Iben control man's destiny. 

Albuquerque had 41 black bears move into the city this fall and try to become 

neighbors. Now, a 600 lb. black bear as a neighbor is thought provoking. 

Montana also had an inv~sion of grizzly bears. As you can imagine, ~t can 

really begin to feel crowded with several grizzly bears in your back yard, 

because they are not intellectual giants - they eat whatever is nearby. As 

it turned out, bears came down to the foot of the mountains, all the way from 

Canada to the Mexican border. There was some puzzlement about this at first, 

but after some investigation, it was found that the late frost last spring 

killed all the acorns and berries, and killed the fruit crops at 7,000 feet. 

So when fall arrived, the bears, who like to get fat before they go find 

themselves a place to sleep, ranged further down the mountains, creating 

somewhat of a furor. This is only the second time that this has happened in 

living memory, the previous time wa~ 1976. · 

Since I happen to believe that the past can help project future conditions, 

let me remind you of a series of events. In 1975 and 1988 we had severe 

droughts. In the spring of 1976 and the spring of 1989, there was a late 

frost which killed all the acorns and berries. .The fall of 1976 and the fall 

of 1989, the bears came down to the towns around the mountains, all the way 

from Canada to Mexico. The fall of 1976 was followed by the winter of 

1976-77, which was memorable to say the least. In 1976-77 the area east of 

the Mississippi experienced some of the coldest temperatures in 200 years of 

records. So to whatever degree that three checkpoints enforced by the 

presence of countless bears (if that is a statistic), and if the future 

resembles the past, then this winter should compete with the coldest winter 

in 200 years east of the Mississippi. This will mean that more than the 

average amount of fuel will be used, for whatever that is worth. 

Overall, global weather is becoming colder, less predictable, and more 

volatile. For example, the snowstorm which dumped 8 inches of snow in 

Indianapolis in the middle of October this year was the earliest storm of 

that size in 100 years. 1990 is going to be ~ pivotai period as all the 

major components which act together to determine global weather become more 

variable. Sunspots and tidal forces, two primary determinants, will 

intensify during 1990-1992, with maximum gravitational impact north of the 

equator. Since.only about 5\ to 7\ pf the world's arable land is south of 20 

degrees south, these changes will greatly affect the majority of the world's 

population. Sunspot activity will reach a peak in early 1990. High tidal 

forces will maximize on December 3, 1990 at 30 degrees north latitude and 45 

degrees north~ and again in January, 1992 at 20 degrees north latitude. This 

will create conditions which will produce so~e of the stormiest weather in 

our history, since 1760. 

As sunspot activity reaches a maximum, the tropical air mass .will be warmed 

to its maximum. Tidal force maximums will trigger volcanoes which in turn 

produce conditions which create clouds. As clouds reflect the sunlight away 

from the earth, the air inside the polar vortex will become cooler. Where 

the edge of the polar vortex converges with the tropical air, a storm track 

called the jet stream is generated. The greater the temperature differential 

between the polar air and the tropical air, the greater the velocity of the 

jet stream, and the more convoluted (lobed) it becomes. During the next few 

years, 1990-1992, this highly lobed jet stream will bring severe storms 

sweeping across from the west to the east in a saw-tooth pattern, down along 

the Mexican border, up into Canada, down to the Gulf of Mexico and.back up 

into Canada. 

But remember, we live on a very large landmasses. So large· in fact, that 

what I experience in New Mexi&o may be much different from what you 

experience in Chicago, or your friends experience on the East Coast. So as I 

say it is getting colder, and there _will be intensive storms, I am speaking 

of a global trend, not what happens daily in each individual state or 

country. In various regions and during different seasons there will be 

tornadoes, hail storms-; vt!ry 1ligh -winds-, dust storms,- f1o..Q.aHtg_, -~_ea_Y"y _snc:>w_s 

in -some areas and--areas where -dro-ughts- and Chinooks leave out snow 

completely. 

Another result of the high tidal force maximum will be an increase in 

earthquake and volcanic activity. In l~ovember, 1985 and December, 1986 there 

were high tidal peaks with maximum gravitational impact south of the 

equator. In September, 1985 there was a Richter 8 earthquake in Mexico City 

and in November another earthquake in Columbia which killed several thousand 

people. There were also volcanoes in Hawaii, Columbia, Papua New Guinea and 

the USSR between September and December, 1985. Some people don't seem to 

think much of the theory that high tidal forces trigger earthquakes and 

volcanoes, but the earthquakes and volcanoes seem to comply, so I don't ask 

for approbation. 

This year, on the 12th of October, I found myself in San Francisco, talking 

to a group of CEO's from a farm equipment group·. I mentioned that I had 

worked out a chart back in 1985 which projected the dates and ·times of high 

tidal forces. It seemed that since. many of them planned to stay over for the 

baseball games, I should mention that there was going to be a high tidal 

force centering around October 16, and that there would probably be an 

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earthquake. I told them ~hat we knew that it could not be larger than a 

Richter 7 because it takes at least thirty years for a Richter 8 to get 

ready, and there had been a survey seven years ago monitoring the accumulated 

strain along the fault. I did, however, miss my calculations by a few hours 

since I expected the quake to occur about 10:45 a.m., but it was close enough 

for a government worker. 

The last two major high tidal peaks were in 1972 and 1982. In tpe past, each 

time we approached the time of the high tidal forces, there were a couple 

thousand earthquakes in the month preceeding and following the tidal force. 

The next time it is going to be very dicey is December 3, 1990. !According to 

my calculations, there will be a high tidal peak on December 3, 1990, at 30 

degrees north latitude, which will be a 27 year high, and also at 45 degrees 

north. Again, on January, 18, 1992 at 20 degrees north latitude an even 

higher tidal force will occur, one of three highest highs in over 1,000 

years. California will be at risk for quakes during this time, as well as 

the the Phillipines. Another area which will be at risk during this period 

is the New Madrid Faul~. By December, 1990 it will have been 179 years, 

which is a full tidal cycle, since the last earthquakes in this atea in 

December, 1811 and January-February, 1812. During that winter there were 

three earthquakes, all above 8 on the Richter scale. I don't knbw if this 

brings anything to mind, bu~ I will plan to be in New Mexico at the time. 

During warm periods, such as we have been living through, man tends to get 

the impression that he is in control. However, all of these natural 

phenomena combine to affect us in rather considerable detail. During the 

last half century we have lost sight of the fact that these forces control, 

we respond. There is a long history of these events which makes me extremely 

confident in projecting the future. By taking a simple multiple of tidal 

forces times inverse sunspots, you get an index of cooling. When plotted, 

there is a cyclical pattern. My calculations, starting in 1760, show that 

there have been four cycles. There was warm weather until the late 1770's 

and then it got cold again. In 1772-75 there was a depression, 1775-83 there 

was a revolution, 1784-88 there was aggression during which time we annexed 

everything east of the Mississippi except Florida. Another period, beginning 

in 1837, was our longest depression7 it bottomed out in 1843, and 1846-~8 

during the period of recovery we had a war with Mexico, during which we took 

the states west of the Missippi. Again, a depression bottomed out in 1893 

and during the period of recovery we fought the Spanish American War, 

followed in 1899-1906 by the Phillipine insurrection. This was the third 

longest war we ever had, and we increased our territory a great deal, taking 

the Spanish empire. The next period was the 1930's, some of you may remember 

that. 

Now some will dispute this correlation, saying that we aren't aggressive. I 

disagree, at no time in our history have we shown the level of aggression 

that we are now showing (we are just calling it something different). As 

early as 1979 we.est~blished human rights as the behavior which governments 

must have towards their people, and we have attempted to enforce that 

relationship. We have invaded Grenada, bombed Libya, and we have talked 

about authorizing the CIA to assasinate heads of state. We have just 

authorized the FBI to enter any country in the world, arrest anyone who has 

violated u.s. laws, and bring them home for punishment. And, we are in the 

process of attempting to establish homogamy over the Communist Empire. That 

is pretty aggressive. 

Every great period of· depression and ~ar in our history - 1780, 1840, 1890 

and 1930 have been at times exactly like this. It will be a period for 

maximum alertness. As we enter the 1990-1991 period, I expect us to enter 

another round of depression, war and aggression. A great many opportunities 

will come into existence, but the opportunities will have two forms - you can 

win or lose. 

These are projections, not predictions. Projections are made on the basis of 

calculations: e.g. if the situation was thus and so under certain conditions, 

then, if those conditions exist again, a projection of like circumstances can 

be made. So, if the future is like the past, I project that the next two 

years will be punctuated with increased volcanic and earthquake activity, 

high winds, storms, colder weather, and social change. The coming decade is 

likely to be one to remember. 

November 9, 1989 Edited by: c. Judith Seime 

Reprinted by permission. 

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APPENDIX A-WRITINGS AND SPEECHES OF BROWNING AND STEW ART 37 

Talk by Iben Browning to Faultless Starch/Bon Ami 

Company & Guests 

Kansas City Club 

Kansas City, Missouri 

[Editor's note: The following has been retyped for 

legibility. Lengthy sections not relevant to the New Madrid 

prediction have been omitted, but it is otherwise word-forword identical to the original.] 

Dr. Iben Browning's Breakfast Talk 

December 8, 1989 

When I was on an international tour, September 19, 

1985, there was an earthquake that hit Mexico City a 

Richter 8. There was a new moon and high tidal force and 

then other volcanoes and so. So I distributed this in 1985 

and I had down October 17, 1989 as the point of high 

danger, and that was the day of the earthquake in San 

Francisco. 

This was 30° north latitude for the high tidal force. 

And then again on the 3 rd of December, 1990 there will be 

a 27 year high, 30° north latitude. There's another unique 

thing about that, the tidal force occurs in 179 year cycle, 

the average length of a tidal cycle is 179 years, so we'll be 

back in exactly the same position as we were 179 years ago 

which was the time of the new Madrid Earthquakes. It will 

be back with the same configuration as we were when the 

New Madrid Earthquake occurred December, 1811 and 

we'll have a 27 year high tidal force. So I attach a much 

higher than usual probability of the New Madrid Quake of 

some magnitude, which should be of interest here. Since 

the one then cracked streets in Washington, DC and rang 

churchbells and broke windows in New England. 

This is merely a triggering force, it is not an 

earthquake force. The earthquake energy is provided by 

the local terrain. Well, in San Francisco, what that was 

was a strike slip, the San Andreas Fault, the west side is 

sliding north, the east side is fairly stationary. But in the 

New Madrid area it is a diaphragm. It will snap up instead 

of sliding, it just snaps up. It's a process known in geology 

as Isosticy, everything attempts to come to its own level. 

Well there has been an accumulation of some energy in the 

New Madrid Fault, the Mississippi Delta has grown 

several hundred thousand cubic miles in volume, that is to 

say, soil has been eroded away on the central shield. So 

this is unloaded, the central part of the country, so the 

process of Isosticy has been a process of loading of that 

Fault, so it has a good chance of, so I would say have your 

dishes down flat, and try not to be on top of a tall building 

on December 3 next year. 

The following time there's a high tidal force that will 

be the 18th of January, 1992, that will be a 20° north 

latitude at 20 plus or minus a few degrees, there is an 

enormous number of huge volcanoes. So there's a high 

probability of a very high tidal force, it's the highest tidal 

force in 54 years, and a high probability of triggering 

volcanoes at that latitude. The last time we had a volcano 

at 20° north, actually 17.3 was El Chichone in 1982, and 

El Chichone caused, well it was immediately followed by 

the El Nino current-El Chichone put up so much debris 

into the atmosphere that the net sunlight falling on Hawaii 

over* * * [illegible]. 

Ninety to 95% of all the anchovies disappeared 

following the 1982 El Chichone and 60% of salmon and 

60% of the king crab disappeared. The temperature along 

the west coast of the Americas went up 6° centigrade, fish 

don't spawn when the temperature changes more than 1° 

centigrade, so that's why so many fish disappeared. In the 

North Atlantic following that volcano at that latitude, 20% 

of all the fish in the North Atlantic disappeared in the 

following winter. Earthquakes are important only if you're 

there, but volcanoes are important wherever you are, so 

that could be expected to produce major climatic changes 

following January, 1992. 

Let me show you the plot of the tidal forces now. 

(Charts provided for audience). October 17, '89, December 

3, 90, January 18, '92. These are separated by 413 days 

and these separated by 413 days, this is the plot of the 

actual tidal forces, this is the high tidal force at December 

3, 1990, this was the 17th of October, 1989, this will be 

the 18th of January, 1992. These calculations were done 

for me by the Navy Observatory. So then the excitement is 

over until 2008. A little bit of excitement here in 1999. But 

enormous excitement in 2008. This will be the highest 

tidal force in 96 years. So at that point in time the sky will 

become red, you'll be unable to see the sun until it's about 

15° above the horizon because of the dry fog and it will be 

very very cold indeed. 

So that's sort of the rundown of current events. 

We have excitement continuing on out into the middle 

of 1992, so far as, earthquakes and volcanoes are 

concerned, and the consequences of that for that year and 

the following year. 

Now I should speak a little bit about the greenhouse 

effect. You've heard a lot about greenhouse effect. The 

first thing let me say about it is it's hogwash. It's getting 

colder not warmer. I don't want to equivocate about this, 

it's just a pack of lies. Glaciers are growing in the northern 

hemisphere. For example, this is a glacier, all of these bars 

here (showing on the chart) are glaciers growing and is all 

around the northern hemisphere. Each time the volcanic 

activity is high, glaciers grow. They did not grow in the 

period from 1920 to 1950 because there was no time when 

the volcanic activity was high, and they started growing 

again when the volcanic activity got high. Now glaciers 

are now growing very rapidly in the northern hemisphere. 

And glaciers seldom grow in warmer weather. 

The second observation is that if you take a 12 month 

running average of ice and snow cover, it's increasing. 
38 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

This is a composite of photographs from space as 

calculated by N.A.S.A. until 1972 through 1971 we had 

about 21 million square kilometers of ice and snow cover 

in the northern hemisphere. 1972 jumped about 2 million 

square kilometers and then since 1972 we've been running 

about 25 million square kilometers. We've increased our 

ice and snow cover in the northern hemisphere about 4 

million square kilometers, which since that time the 

Russians have not made but one good crop. They are 

planners. And Communist planners, their plan always is, 

if we sUcceeded last year, let's do the same thing. Well 

they establish their habits in the warm weather. See, 

Communist came into power in 1918 after the weather got 

warm, anct it's going out of power and as a consequence 

the weather is getting cold, because plans 

work-agricultural plans in particular-only in warm 

weather. Russia doesn't have that anymore and I have 

some bad news for them, it's not going to get warm again 

until about 2070, so it's going to take a lot of breath 

holding to hold out. 

In the meantime the Russians had one good crop since 

this happened and that was this year, and all other years 

they've had crop failures. This year their crop failure was 

especially bad-they planned on 245 million tons, they 

claim they made 207 million tons. If you have a decrease 

of production of 10% below the plans, that's called a 

disaster, if it's 20% below plans, that's called a 

catastrophe. In 1975, instead of producing 222 million 

tons, produced 138. They didn't have a name for it. 

Then, forests are advancing in the south and 

retreating in the north. As it gets cooler, the polar vortex 

expands and the storm-track goes south. You'll notice 

today, for example, that the snow is south of here. There is 

no snow here and no snow north of here. The storm-track 

has retreated toward the south and with it, of course, the 

moisture. Next spring people who enjoy driving around on 

dry streets this winter are going to hate it next spring when 

they have nothing but dust to plant grain in. 

If you go to New Mexico or Arizona you '11 find that 

out from the forests there are little trees growing for 

100-150 feet. So the forests are advancing in the south. On 

the other hand, if you'll recall the fires in Yellowstone and 

in Idaho and so on, those were not little trees that were 

burning, those were big trees. So when the big trees are 

burning in the north and the little trees are out in front of 

the forests in the south, the forests in general are 

advancing south. There's another way of checking that. 

If you don't happen to have a forest or a glacier maybe 

you've got bats. We have bats in New Mexico. We have 

Carlsbad Cavern, and 10 years ago, every night an eighth 

of a million bats would come out every night. I'm not sure 

who counted them but they said that's how many there 

were, and that was 10 years ago. Now one and an eighth 

million bats. Nine times as many bats come out every 

night. What that means is conservatively speaking that 

there's nine times as much bat food, but you can't have 

nine times as much bat food unless that desert is getting 

some rain. So what's happening is that the storm-track has 

swung far enough south that the rain is maximizing down 

there instead of over Kansas where you'd like to have it for 

wheat. We have room for wheat growers down there. 

Canadian government reports that the North Atlantic 

is cooling. The weight of North Atlantic fish is getting 

less. For example, the fish off of Iceland. Ten years ago the 

fish ranged 10-12 lbs. each. Now they are 8-10 lbs. each. 

There is less fish food, the water is colder. There's many 

lines of evidence that it's getting colder not warmer. Only 

theory says that it is getting warmer. All the data is in the 

opposite direction. 

Now there's a very slow thing that I have wanted to 

show you that I'm going to relate terribly close to 

everything else, but this is the magnetic field inclination in 

the northern hemisphere. Now the fact that the North 

Magnetic Pole is just northwest of Hudson Bay is not 

news, but the fact that it's just passing by may be. It is 

proceeding west. 

Now 400 years ago the Magnetic North Pole was over 

this direction from the north geographic pole. It was 

pointed toward England, in England there are records 

from tree rings of temperature. And in France straight 

south of England, people were building campfires on wet 

clay. 

You can go to an old fossil campfire site and find the 

orientation of the magnetic field at the time the campfire 

baked the magnetic field orientation into the clay. If you 

go back through history we can find out where the 

magnetic field was because bricks of ancient cities have 

the magnetic field baked into them. Sun baked bricks. 

Anyway, here are three campfires in the 800 A.D. period, 

and then the earth's magnetic field varied like which is a 

record of the magnetic field passing by England and there 

was a corresponding 1 o change in temperature in England 

at the time this magnetic field was passing by in France. 

This is an 800 year cycle, it's a 1° change. Now 1 o doesn't 

sound like much, but 1 o cooling moves crops 300 miles 

south. So that is one source of 1° cooling. The magnetic 

field has swept passed us now, it entered the United States 

in 1880, it's now pointing toward Bismarck, North Dakota 

and it will exit the western part of the United States in 

about 2060. It moves across the United States in 180 years. 

Switching away from that, let's look at the record of 

volcanoes. There are various kinds of records of volcanoes 

but this is one of the better ones. In Greenland ice and in 

Antarctic ice the sulphuric acid record shows every 

volcano that has existed, which the records go back 10,000 

years or so, this is the last history of the United States. 

Now this is tidal forces in the northern hemisphere, tidal 

forces in the southern hemisphere which you'll notice are 

reciprocal. When the northern hemisphere has low tides 

the southern hemisphere has high tides and vice 
APPENDIX A-WRITINGS AND SPEECHES OF BROWNING AND STEWART 39 

versa-the northern hemisphere high tides, southern 

hemisphere low tides. When there are high tidal forces in 

the southern hemisphere, it triggers great volcanoes in the 

southern hemisphere. When our high tidal forces in the 

northern hemisphere, it triggers great volcanoes in the 

northern hemisphere. Now when volcanoes occur and 

there's a lot of sulphuric acid, then that is the time it is 

cold. Thus, for example, this was 1796 that the tidal forces 

were low in the northern hemisphere. As the tidal forces 

went up in the northern hemisphere and were high in the 

southern hemisphere, 50 years of severe volcanic activity 

occurred in the northern hemisphere and it was very cold. 

What is going to happen next? Exactly the same thing, 

because we are now in a period of rising tidal forces in the 

northern hemisphere, high tidal forces in the southern 

hemisphere, so we will have 50 years of high volcanic 

activity here as we did here. So that will make the weather 

very cold in the ensuing 50 years. 

The literature will continue to reflect the greenhouse 

effect as long as the grants hold out. 

What's the effect of the volcanic activity? Let's 

concern ourselves with that. What effect does it have on 

people, or is that a completely abstract piece of 

knowledge? Here is the history of the United States as 

reflected by volcanic activity recorded in Greenland ice. 

Everything on the left side here is periods when it's warm. 

Everything on the right side is high sulphuric acid times 

when it is cold. How's it make it cold? Volcano goes 

off-shoots a large amount of sulphuric oxide in the 

stratosphere. El Chichone, for example, in 1982 shot 40 

million tons of sulphuric oxide into the stratosphere. The 

sulphuric oxide combines with ozone-you've heard of the 

ozone hole-that's how it gets there. Sulphuric oxide 

combines with ozone to make sulphur trioxide and that 

combines then with water to make sulphuric acid, and the 

consequence of the sulphuric acid is, "the droplets trickle 

down from the stratosphere down into the troposphere 

nuclear clouds and clouds then reflect sunlight which 

leaves it cooler below. That's the mechanism. So when 

there's very little sulphuric acid, it's warmer below 

because more sunlight gets through-less clouds. Here is a 

period from up until about 1757 or something like 

that-56, when it was nice and warm in the colonies, then 

it got cold and we triggered the french and indian war 

which spread to Europe as the seven years war. It's the 

first time we amounted to a historic group of people 

because we managed to trigger a war in Europe. 

[Eight transcript pages of this talk are omitted 

here. In this omitted section, Browning continues 

to argue for a relationship between cycles of crop 

failures and weather variations caused by cycles 

of volcanic eruptions which, in tum, were caused 

by cycles of tidal loading. For the period from 

1992 until about 2070, he predicts an increased 

rate of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes due to 

increased tidal forces. The following is a short 

excerpt from a question and answer session that 

followed this talk. 1 

A. * * * Meantime our food reserve has declined each of 

the last three years, both in the United States and in 

the world. The world's food reserve now is 60 day 

reserve, only 60 days. The next two years, if I'm 

correct, we will have drought and our crops will be 

much less than we need, so we will use up our reserve, 

which is already small. We'll use up our reserve next 

year. 

In the meanwhile the U.S. government shows a total 

insensitivity to this. They're attempting to buy the 

loyalty of the defecting Communists with American 

food reserves. We are using out of last year's reserve. 

So next year I expect our food reserve to be completely 

exhausted and then the crop failure the following year 

will put pockets of famine in the USA. So I think 

Americans will take poorly to hunger, especially 

starvation and I expect there's at least a 50/50 

probability that the federal government of the U.S. 

will fall in 1992. It's not a recommendation it's just a 

probability. 

You can see how people who are accustomed to eating 

are going to have a helluva time breaking the habit. 

Q. This gets back to some people that used to tell us to 

put in food reserves at home. 

A. Well don't bother unless you also put in munitions 

reserve. I ran across the fact that in Oakland, maps 

were being sold on the streets with all Mormons' 

homes marked on them. I called this to the attention 

of Mormons and they seemed a little uneasy about it. 

Q. In 1992 if things are this way in the northern 

hemisphere, should I move to Buenos Aires? 

A. Well there's a problem there, you see there's so many 

Argentines already there. 

Q. Right, but you see they'll be happy and fat and they'll 

love to have me. 

A. Well, I recall the story of the lady who searched all 

over the globe and finally found the ultimately 

peaceful spot and went there, it was the Falklans? 

Q. Okay, but that was when the weather was bad down 

there. 

A. Well that made it even more attractive because she 

wanted a place that was peaceful. But even the 

Argentines went in dispite the bad weather. 
40. RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO. EARTHQUAKE 

In a 1990 video 

interview, Dr.lben 

Browning warned 

that a devastating 

earthqualle could 

strille America ... 

His words of caution 

triggered a media 

frenzy ... 

Yet, the December 3, 1990 

earthqualce never occuned. So why 

should you pay close attention to what 

he has _to say now? 

Unforb.mately, the media got it wrong ... ~ 

M2D9··· and in the process over1ooked Dr. 

Brownin~ oitical messages on volcanoes, the 

weather, the economy and on the future of man. 

Recently, Or. Browning agreed to sit for a new 

exclusive video interview. Read on for details on a 

risk-free opportunity to spend time with Or. Browning ... 

and to prepare for the incredible events just ahead. 

Dear Friend: 

Dr. lben Browning -what he has to say will help 

you make crucially important decisions on how you 

invest, where you live and how to best prepare for 

the next 5 critical years. Risk-Free Offer. 

Dr. Iben Browning entered the first grade of school at two and a half 

years old. Since that auspicious start, he has enjoyed a career of almost 

unimaginable diversity and success •.. academically (graduating from 

university at age 19), in the military (test pilot, inventor of 

sophisticated aircraft guidance and weapons systems) and professionally 

(with some 68 patents to his name). 

Rancher, farmer, engineer, physicist, biologist, test pilot and 

teacher ... Dr. Browning is a true American original whose I.Q. literally 

tops the chart. Yet of all the things which Dr. Browning has done in his 

incredible career, it is the study of the climate and its effect on mankind 

that has most captivated his attention. · 

Which is good news for you. What Dr. Browning has to say about today's 

weather is both fascinating and of critical importance to you. What he has 

to say is not just of passing interest. 

(over, please ... ) 
APPENDIX B 

OFFICIAL STATEMENTS ON THE 

DECEMBER 2-3, 1990, EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION 

AND DAVID STEWART'S RESPONSE 

CONTENTS 

Memphis State University, Center for Earthquake Research and 

Information, statement on the Browning prediction (early 

July, 1990)............................................................................... 42 

CUSEC (Central United States Earthquake Consortium) earthquake 

prediction policy (July 1990)................................................... 44 

Evaluation of the December 2-3, 1990, New Madrid seismic zone 

prediction, by the Ad Hoc Working Group on the December 

2-3, 1990, Earthquake Prediction (October 18, 1990} ............. 45 

Statement from the Center for Earthquake Studies, Dr. David 

Stewart, Director, Southeast Missouri State University 

(October 19, 1990) .................................................................. 67 
(901) 678-2007 

FAX (901) 323-2857 

A number of "predictions" of earthquakes based on correlations With Udal 

potentials have gained wide attention in the news media in_recent months. One of 

these. by Dr. lben Browning, a consultant in Albuquerque, New Mexico is for the 

high likelihood of a large earthquake in the New Madrid region for December 3, 

1990. Because of the media attention and public concern attached to this 

prediction. we feel that it is important to show- that Dr. Browning's methodology is 

ineffective for predicting earthquakes: thus an earthquake in the New Madrid 

region on December 3, 1990 is no more likely than at any other time. 

Several questions can be asked concerning Dr. Browning's methods and his 

application of them to the New Madrid region: 

Is Dr. Browning's methodology new? 

No. Attempts to correlate earthquake occurrence With earth tides were made 

at least as early as 1936 and many papers on that topic have been published since 

then. Moreover, Dr. Browning is not the first to consider the vector sum of tidal 

forces at specific latitudes. Earth scientists have been able to make such 

calculations for many years and standard programs have been available since at least 

1969. 

Do past earthquakes consistently correlate With tidal effects? 

Several seismologists have considered this problem. A few have concluded 

that earthquakes are triggered during tidal maxima: others have concluded that 

they are triggered when tidal amplitudes change most rapidly. Other studies find no correlation between earthquakes and tides at all. 1bis includes a recent study 

in 1985 by an author who found an earlier correlation, but later concluded that his 

statistics had been faulty. 

Will there be a tidal maximum on December 3, 1990? 

Yes. but tidal maxima also occur at many other times, some of them similar in 

magnitude to that on December 3rd. Gravity values on December 3rd are only 

slightly higher than values at peaks in late May and June. Why were there no earthquakes then? 

Did other New Madrid earthquakes occur at times of tidal maxima? 

In 1811-12 there were a series of three earthquakes greater than magnitude 

8.0. The first earthquake. on December 16, 1811, occurred on a maximum, but it 

Is a typical maximum, no larger than others which occur about every two weeks. 

The earthquakes of January 23 and February 7, 1812 occurred close to tidal 

minima. 

Other damaging earthquakes in the New Madrid region occurred on January 4. 

1843 (Magnitude 6.0) and October 31, 1895 (magnitude 6.2). Both occurred 

closer to the tidal minimum than to the tidal maximum. 

Are the tidal· force effects on earthquake faults unique? 

No. Simple calculations show that under the most generous assumptions. tidal 

effects can add at most several hundredths of a bar (or several hundredths of 

standard atmospheric pressure) to the stresses promoting failure on a fault. 

Several other natural processes can do this as well (or better). including weather 

fronts. heavy rainfall or ahigh river stage. Why, then, pick on tidal forces? 

Conclusion 

The above discussion indicates that there is no reason to believe that an earthquake Will be triggered by tidal forces on December 3,1990. Dr. Browning's 

prediction therefore should not be considered seriously. We do. however, live in a region that is at risk from a damaging earthquake. The likelihood of a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake occurring in the New Madrid region in the next few decades 

is fairly high. Just because Dr. BroWning's prediction is invalid is no reason to be 

complacent. 

This information was compiled in cooperation With the Department of Earth 

and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louts University. For more information about 

earthquakes and earthquake preparedness contact: 

Center for Earthquake Research & Information 

Memphis State University 

Memphis, 'IN 38152 

(901) 678-2007 

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NEW MADRID FACT SHEET 

Bow do we know the Mid-South Is at risk from an earthquake? 

(901) 678-2007 

FAX (901) 323-2857 

In the Winter of 1811-1812, three of the largest earthquakes 1n North America occurred 1n 

this region. All had magrutudes greater than 8.0 on the R1chter..8cale and altered the landscape 

drastically. 

Since that time two major-damage level earthquakes have occurred-a magrutude 6.0 

nearMarked"'l"ree. Arkansas 1n 1843.:and.A.magnttnde.e-.ncar..Charlcston, Missouri 1n 1895. 

In addition. earthquakes of smaller magrutudes were felt 1n the past and continue to be 

felt periodically today. Since the installation of seismic instruments throughout the MidSouth, tt ts lmown that earthquakes happen all the tlme (about 150 per year) tn the New Madrid 

setsmic zone. but most are too small to be felt by people. 

The largest earthquakes felt tn thts region tn recent tlmes occurred tn 1976 (magnitude 

5.0 wtth a 4.5 aftershock) and on April 27, 1989 (magnitude 4.5). 

Do we know when the nat damaging earthquake wUl occur? 

Scientists at the Earthquake Center have computed a set of probabilities that estimates 

the potential for different magrutude earthquakes to occur: 

Magnitude A~. Repeat Tlme Probability within Probability thin 

the next 15 years thenezt50 

40-63% 86-97% 

.4-8.7% 19-29% 

0.3-1.0% .7-4.0% 

At this time no responsible scientist 1S able to predict the exact date an earthquake ts likely to 

occur. 

What lhoul4 I know about earthquakes? 

Earthquakes are very common Sn many regions of the United States and the world. Very 

large earthquakes are relatively rare. 

The ground~ open up and swaDow people, houses. etc. 

The New Madrtc1 fault system~ run under Memphis or Shelby County. The closest 

potnt 1S 35 miles northwest of MemphiS at Marked Tree. Arkansas. 

Many small earthquakes do not act as a safety valve for a large earthquake. 

You can prevent a lot of earthquake damage by know1ng what to do when an earthquake occurs and by preparing ahead of Ume. ThiS lmowledge can help prevent Injuries, save Uves 

and dollar losses. Experience has shown that individual action ts effectiVe. 

More lnfonnatton about earthquakes and what can be done to prepare for them 1s 

available from Memphis State Un1verstty's Earthquake Center at (901) 678-2007. 

3890 Central Avenue/Memphis, Tennessee 38152 

Additional Statement: Earthquake 

Probability on Dec. 2-3, 1990 

The 2-day probability of an M = 7 earthquake in the New 

Madrid seismic zone is about 

P(2 day) ::. 1.7 x 10-S 

Iben Browning projects an increase of this miniscule 

probability (1 chance in 60,000) to P(2 day) =. 0.5 (1 chance in 

2) on Dec. 2-3, 1990, on the basis of an extremely small 

variation in the gravitational force imposed on the earth's 

crust by the moon and sun, resulting in a stress or pressure 

difference on crustal faults on the order .of 0.005 bar or five 

one-thousandths of one standard atmospheric pressure. That 

such a minor stress perturbation could appreciably alter the 

internal processes of the earth so as to increase the 2-day 

probability of an earthquake by a· factor of .. 30,000 · is outside 

the range of responsible, supportable science and in the realm 

of pseudo-science and personal conjecture. 

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44 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

CUSEC EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION POLICY 

1. We are aware of the News Media reports concerning the possibility of an 

Earthquake in· the Central U.S. on (or about) December 3, 1990. 

2. CUSEC's mission is Earthquake Mitigation and Preparedness --not prediction. 

(Th!Js), we are not in the position to evaluate the so-called "December 3, 1990, 

prediction", but accept the opinions of Earthquake Scientists (such as those at the 

Center for Earthquake Research and Information at Memphis State University) who 

state that an Earthquake in the Central U.S. is no more likely to occur on that day 

as any other date. 

3. CUSEC's position is that in the Central U.S. Earthquakes could occur at any time, 

and every day that passes brings us one day closer to that event. The Earthquake 

Seismologists have informed us that there is a 50% chance of an Earthquake in 

the 6-7 range (on the Richter Scale) in the next 10-15 years and a 90% chance 

of it occurring within 50 years. 

4. Therefore, it is important to prepare for such an Earthquake as rapidly as possible. 

This preparation should include: 

a. Public Awareness and Education 

b. Mitigation - Structural and non-Structural 

c. Planning for Response and Recovery 

d. Training 

e. Conducting Exercises 

5. In Summary, CUSEC strongly urges all public and private organizations and 

residents of the Central U.S. to prepare for an Earthquake ........ not because of the 

December 3, 1990 reports, but because a damaging Earthquake could occur at 

any time. 

END 
Evaluation of the December 2-3, 1990, 

New Madrid Seismic Zone Prediction 

By 

The Ad Hoc Working Group on the 

December 2-3, 1990, Earthquake Prediction 

October 18,1990 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

INTRODUCTION 

BACKGROUND ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS 

Types of Information Comprising Earthquake Predictions 

Standards for Use of Predictions in Public Policy 

SUM:MARY OF THE l BROWNING PREDICI'ION 

Conclusion 

TESTING OF l BROWNING'S PREDICTION 

IS THERE A SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR SELECI'ING THE NEW MADRID 

ZONE AS THE LOCATION OF A DAMAGING TID AU.. Y TRIGGERED 

EARTHQUAKE ON DECEMBER 2·3, 1990 

Why Earthquakes Occur in the New Madrid Area 

Long· Term Probability of a Significant Earthquake 

Imminence of Failure 

Conclusions 

ANALYSIS OF THE TIDE DATA EMPLOYED IN THE L BROWNING 

PREDICTION 

Methodology 

Conclusions 

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ANALYSIS OF THE GENERAL SUCCESS OF THE L BROWNING 

METHOD-VOLCANITCER~ONS 

Eruption and Eruption Phases 

Previous Work 

Correlation Between I. Browning's "Danger Days" and Eruptions 

Comparison of Eruption Frequencies in the Northern and Southern 

Hemispheres 

Is There a 180-Year Periodicity in Eruptive Activity? 

ANALYSIS OF THE GENERAL SUCCESS OF THE L BROWNING--

EARI'HQUAKES 

Correlation of the Global Seismicity Catalog with I. Browning's 

"Dates of Geological Danger" 

Review of Specific· I. Browning Predictions 

Conclusion 

REFERENCES 

APPENDICES 

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

Outl.\ne of the L Browning Prediction 

Although Then Browning has not prepared a thorough written statement of 

his December 2-3, 1990, prediction which presents the elements needed for 

scientific and systematic review, he has made a succession of public 

statements from which the Ad Hoc Working Group has framed the 

elements of his prediction. These are consistent with information 

presented by I. Browning in a September 27, 1990, telephone conversation 

with R. Wesson, Vice-Chairman of the National Earthquake Prediction 

Evaluation Council (NEPEC). 

I. Browning has proposed that there is a 50 percent probability that a tidally 

triggered, magnitude 6.5 to 7.5 earthquake will occur in the New Madrid 

region of the Central United States on December 2:.3, 1990, plus or minus 2 

days (December 1-5, 1990). I. Browning also believes that the maxima of a 

179-year tide cycle triggered the late 1811 and early 1812 New Madrid 

earthquakes and will again affect the region on December 2-3, 1990. I. 

Browning also predicts a greater than 50 percent probability of a magnitude 

8.2 earthquake in Tokyo, Japan, and a slightly less than 50 percent 

probability of a magnitude 6.5- 7.5 earthquake on the Hayward fault in 

California, but the Ad Hoc Working Group was not charged with 

evaluating the predictions for those regions. 

Testingoftbe 1 BrownjngPred,iction 

To be scientifically and systematically evaluated, an earthquake prediction 

must specify: 

• Geographic location; 

• Size (magnitude); 

• Timeframe of occurrence--hours, days, months; 

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Confidence limits on location and size and a probability 

statement of the likelihood of its occurrence during a stated time span; and 

The scientific basis for proposing the above. 

The Ad Hoc Working Group has evaluated the December 2-3 New Madrid 

prediction using four tests: 

The validity of the general concept that tides trigger 

earthquakes; 

The plausibility of a magnitude 6.5 to 7.5 earthquake associated 

with the New Madrid seismic zone; 

The plausibility of such an earthquake being triggered by the 

tidal maximum of December 2..-3, 1990; 

• The significance of the correlation of tidal maxima with 

earthquakes and volcanic eruptions using the I. Browning data set and the 

success of I. Browning's earlier predictions. 

The Genera} Correlation between Tidal Maxima and Eax1;houakes 

Although there are theoretical physical reasons for supposing that tidal 

maxima can trigger earthquakes in fault zones ·where failure is imminent, 

extensive exploration of the statistical correlation between earthquakes and 

tidal maxima leaves the existence of tidal triggering unproven. This 

demonstrates that Earth physics is more complex than intuitively 

perceived. It is presently impossible to develop a rigorous conclusion that 

there exists any correlation between the imminence of the failure of a 

specific fault zone and the capability of a specific tidal maximum to trigger 

an earthquake. 

II 

·lbe PJausibilitv of a Mamjtude 6.5 to 7.5 New Madrid Event Being 

Triggered by the Tidal Maximum of December 2-3. 1990 

The Ad Hoc Working Group states with confidence that, although a longterm large earthquake potential does indeed exist for the New Madrid zone, 

there is absolutely no scientific basis for selecting New Madrid from among 

the other seismic zones as the site of a major earthquake on December 2-3, 

1990. Such a projection, especially at the predicted 50-50 chance level, 

implies a level of detailed knowledge of fault loading and fault dynamics 

that simply does not exist for New Madrid. Further, I. Browning has 

proposed a correlation of the late 1811 early 1812 earthquake sequence with 

the December 2-3, 1990,· tidal cycle as part of a 179-year tidal cycle. This 

correlation is also rejected by the Ad Hoc Working Group. 

Tidal maxima similar to the December 2-3 tidal peak have been experienced 

in the New Madrid area in the recent past, posing the question as to why 

the predicted event did not occur during these earlier highs. 

Correlation of Past Tidal Maxima with Recent Earthquake and 

volcanic Eruptions Using the 1 Browning Pata Sets 

The Ad Hoc Working Group evaluated dates of "high geological risk" for the 

years beginning in 1985 which have been presented by I. Browning in two of 

his tables and are included in this report. The correlation of his selected 

dates with volcanic and earthquake events is random. 

Examination of his claimed predictions does not produce rigorous evidence 

that his pre-event statements contained all of the previously enumerated 

elements of earthquake prediction which are required in order for 

predictions to be critically analyzed. The Ad Hoc Working Group 

specifically rejects the claim of a successful prediction of the Lorna Prieta 

earthquake based upon the best available evidence. His predictions could 

not have been considered for public policy at the time they were made. His 

claimed success rate should not, in our opinion, be used to underscor~ the 

need for public response to his December 2-3, 1990, New Madrid prediction. 

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Conclusion 

The :\d. Hoc 'Working Group has reviewed all available public statements 

and v.-ritten materials by lben Browning regarding the prediction for a 

magnitude 6.5 to 7.5 in the New Madrid region on December 2-3, 1990. The 

Working Group concludes that the prediction does not have scientific 

validity. 

Public Policy Implications 

To be considered for public policy, a prediction must contain all of the 

elements necessary for it to be scientifically and systematically evaluated. 

The I. Browning prediction as interpreted by the Ad Hoc Working Group 

contains sufficient specificity for evaluation. 

To be used ii1 public policy, a short.:term earthquake prediction must 

present credible evidence that during a specific period of time (hours, days, 

months), the probability of a damaging earthquake occurrence will 

significantly exceed the scientifically accepted, longer term base level of 

probability for the specified region. In such cases a rationale exists for 

conducting public and private affairs in a fashion which departs materially 

from the norm in order to protect lives and property. The I. Browning 

prediction of a magnitude· 6.5 to 7.5 earthquake associated with the New 

Madrid seismic zone does not meet such a standard in the opinion of the 

Ad Hoc Working Group. 

The inhabitants of the Central United States should recognize, however, 

that a significant long-term probability does exist for a magnitude 6.5 to 7 

earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone and that such an event can 

occur at any time, although the likelihood of its occurrence on December 2-

3, 1990, will neither be greater nor less than any other 2-day period, as far 

as we are able to scientifically determine. Therefore, since the prospect of a 

damaging earthquake is very real in the region, the norm for conducting 

pubHc and private affairs must, in our opinion, take this circumstance into 

account. We see no reason why the dates ofDecember 2-3 should be 

IV 

par icularly singled out for earthquake preparedness. However, some 

gen• ral level of earthquake preparedness is appropriate at all times. 

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Ad Hoc Working Group on the 

December 2-3, 1990, Earthquake Prediction 

Dr. James F. Davis, Chair 

Ad Hoc Working Group 

California Division of Mines & Geology 

1416 Ninth Street, Room 1341 

Sacramento, CA 95814 

Dr. Duncan C. Agnew 

University of California, San Diego 

IGPP/8604 

La Jolla Shore Drive 

La Jolla, CA 92093 

Mr. Michael B. E. Bograd 

Bureau of Geology 

2525 North _West St. 

Jackson,MS 39216 

Dr. Lawrence W. Braile 

Earth and Atmospheric Sciences 

Purdue University 

CIVL Building 

West Lafayette, IN 4 7907 

Dr. Thomas H. Heaton 

U.S. Geological Survey 

525 South Wilson Avenue 

Pasadena, CA 91106 

Dr. Arch C. Johnston 

Center for Earth Research & Information 

Memphis State University 

3890 Central Avenue 

Memphis, TN 38152 

VI 

Dr. Lyle D. McGinnis 

Argonne National Lab ES-362 

9700 S. Cass Avenue 

Argonne, IL 60439 

Dr. Brian Mitchell 

Earth & Atmospheric Sciences 

Saint Louis University 

3507 Lacl~de Avenue 

St. Louis, MO 63103 

Dr. Christopher G. Newhall 

U.S. Geological Survey 

905 National Center 

Reston, VA 22092 -

Dr. Ira R. Satterfield 

Div. of Geology & Land Survey 

111 Fairgrounds Road 

Rolla, MO 65401 

Dr. Randall G. Updike 

U.S. Geological Survey/OEVE 

905 National Center 

Reston, VA 22092 

EVALUATION OF THE DECEMBER 2-3, 1990, 

NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE PREDICI'ION 

INTRODUCTION 

The Central United States Earthquake Consortium (CUSEC), composed of 

State emergency operations officials, has requested the U.S. Geological 

Survey to advise them about the validity of Then Browning's prediction that 

a damaging earthquake will strike the New Madrid region on or about 

December 3, 1990. This r~port by the Ad Hoc Working Group on the 

December 2-3, 1990, prediction fulfills a charge made to the group by the 

Chairman and Vice-Chairman of the National Earthquake Prediction 

Evaluation Council (NEPEC) to investigate the matter. 

The-Ad Hoc_ Working Group includes individuals with experience in the 

geology and the seismicity of the New Madrid seismic zone, evaluation of 

earthquake predictions and correlations between Earth tides and 

earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The group developed a consensus 

after a review of pertinent information. 

Information regarding I. Browning's conclusions has included available 

records of his public statements, his September 27, 1990, letter responding 

toR. Wesson's (Vice-Chairman of the National Earthquake Prediction 

Evaluation Council) request for background on his prediction and R. 

Wesson's written summary of his September 27, 1990, telephone 

conversation with Dr. I. Browning. 

This report of the Ad Hoc Working Group has been composed through the 

synthesis of the written. contributions provided by the membership. 

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BACKGROUND ON EARTIIQUAKE PREDICTIONS 

Types of Informatioil Cc.n:.:prisi.ng Earthquake Predictions 

Earthquake predictions that can be scientifically and systematically 

evaluated must contain certain basic information: 

(1) The geographic location of the anticipated event. 

(2) A clearly defined time for the event, e.g. day, range of days, months, 

etc. 

(3) An estimate of the magnitude, or range of magnitudes, of the 

anticipated event. 

(4) Some measure of the confidence or reliability which the predictor 

attaches his statement, e.g. plus/minus factor on the time, and a probability 

value for the occurrence of the earthquake. 

(5) A rationale for the conclusions described above which provides a 

scientific basis for the prediction conclusion. 

In addition, the prediction statement must be issued in advance of the 

predicted event. This may seem obvious, however, most commonly 

predictors claim success in retrospect. The argument generally follows a 

logic that (1) a theory is proposed or a pattern recognized, (2) a model is 

designed and past events are analyzed using the proposed model, (3) a 

number of past events are tested on the model resulting in certain events 

being retrospectively "predicted" by the model, (4) the predictor claims 

success for these past events. This methodology is limited because 

independent reviewers of the prediction have difficulty determining the 

extent to which selection of the data influenced the outcome. Further, 

reviewers are often not provided with a comprehensive list of successes and 

failures of the method, i.e. there is a tendency for bias toward reporting 

retrospective successes and discounting failures. 

2 

Standards for Use of Predictions in Public Policy 

During the last 15 years, investigations have yielded probabiHty estimations 

for anticipated earthquakes of specified size in many parts of the country. 

These conclusions are usually stated as probabilities of the event occurring 

during an identified timeframe. Both time-dependent and timeindependent estimates presently exist for many areas, including the New 

Madrid seismic zone. Although no single probability value may be 

universally accepted, the scientific community generally considers a 

certain range of estimates to be plausible. To be used in public policy, a 

short-term earthquake prediction must present at least equally plausible 

evidence that during a specified narrow time (months, days, hours) the 

probability that a damaging event will occur significantly exceeds the 

generally accepted probability base level. In such cases, a rationale exists 

for conducting public and private affairs in a fashion which departs 

materially from.the_norm in order to protect lives and property. 

The Seismological Society of America, the leading professional body of 

seismologists in the Nation, has an established set of guidelines for 

earthquake predictors (Seismological Society of America, 1983). This 

informal set of principles serves as a basis for acceptance of a prediction 

and for use in public policy, but more importantly, it establishes what is 

expected from the scientist making the prediction in terms of conduct as a 

scientist, and conduct with respect to fellow scientists, government 

officials, the public, and foreign countries. The principles embodied in 

these guidelines were employed by the Ad Hoc Working Group in its 

evaluation of I. Browning's prediction. 

SUMMARY OF THE mEN BROWNING PREDICTION 

Table 1 enumerates the pronouncements which I. Browning has made 

regarding earthquake potential associated with the December 1990 

timeframe. The earliest available evidence identifying the December 3, 

1990, timeframe occurs in a handwritten table which he apparently 

prepared and distributed in December 1985. That table, which is further 

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discussed as Table 2 elsewhere in this report, lists 35 days between 

September 19, 1985, and March 3, 1993, which I. Browning considers to be 

dates cf increased danger based upon tidal conditions. The December 3, 

1990, date is highlighted with three asterisks (four is the highest assigned) 

which implies a significantly higher danger than tidal peaks in prior or 

subsequent months. This date also has an annotation of "30° N latitude, 27 

year high" but no mention of New Madrid or any other seismic zone is 

made. I. Browning is reported to have told a business seminar in Atlanta, 

Georgia, in February 1988, that a damaging earthquake could occur in the 

Memphis area in early December 1990. We do not find any additional 

comments from I. Browning regarding a December 3, 1990, prediction until 

October 21, 1989. From this time on his public comments show a gradual 

increase in specificity. 

The Table 1listing of public statements may not be complete, but it does 

demonstrate the evolution o{I. Browning's pronouncement over the past 

year. Although Memphis appears to have been mentioned in February 

1988, the first evidence we find of the New Madrid region specifically bv 

name being associated with the December 3, 1990, date is in Novembe:r 1989. 

Since then, the date has remained fixed at December 2 or 3. He has 

subsequently attached a plus or minus factor on the date. This ranges from 

24 to 72 hours each side of the December 2-3 window, so in the extreme case, 

the prediction could be construed to cover November 30 to December 6. In 

recent months, he has usually used the interval of 2 days. Magnitude has 

generally been stated as 7 or above, but most recently he has restricted this 

to 6 1/2 to 7 1/2. He has often stated a 50-50 chance or 50 percent probability 

of occurrence although there is no indication of how this probability has 

been calculated or tested. In his September 27, 1990, conversation With 

R. Wesson, he stated that his probability statement is "an estimate from 

observation." 

The scientific rationale for selection of the New Madrid area is at least in 

part dependent upon I. Browning's conclusion that the maxima of a 179-

year tide cycle triggered the late 1811 and early 1812 New Madrid 

earthquakes and will again affect t4e region on December 2-3, 1990. 

4 

DATE 

10/21/89 

TABLE 1 CHRONOWGY OF "'HE I. BR.OWNING PREDICTION 

FORUM GEOGRAl'_HIC AREA DATE +/- MAGNITUDE 

Browning Newslette:. :;,..._ <..:ao;rn Hemisphere 12/3 

(2/3 of volcanoes 

but no mention of 

earthquakes) 

n.a. n.a. 

10/31/89 Paine-Webber speech 30°N and 45°N 12/3 n.a. n.a. 

11/21/89 

12/8/89 

12/21/89 

2/19/90 

6/18/90 

7/25/90 

Summer 

1990 

8/26/90 

9/17/90 

9j90 

Browning Newsletter 

Speech, Kansas City 

Browning Newsletter 

Video tape interview 

w E.Watson 

D.Stewart memo 

San Francisco 

Chronicle interview 

Revision of 1985 

chart 

St. Louis PostDispatch interview 

Wall Street Journal 

interview 

Newspaper advertise. 

9j27j90 R.Wesson interview 

by telephone 

Around 30°N 

30°N and 45°N, 

New Madrid, Calif. 

& Philippines 

New Madrid 

30°N to 60°N 

(EQ's & volcanoes) 

New Madrid 

(50-50 chance) 

30°N to 60°N 

(100% probability) 

New Madrit:i 

(SOX probability) 

Tokyo,- Japan 

(50% probability) 

Hayward, Calif. 

(SOX probability) 

New Madrid 

Hayward fault, Ca 

Tokyo, Japan 

12/3 a few days n.a. 

12/3 n.a. n.a. 

12/3 n.a. n.a. 

12/2- n.a. n.a. 

12/3 

12/2-. n.a. 7.0+ 

12/3 

12/3 2 days n.a. 

12/3 2 days >7.0 

-12j-3 -2 days n.a 

12/3 2 days n.a. 

12/3 n.a. 7.0+ 

12/3 n.a. n.a. 

12/3 n.a. n.a. 

30°N. latitude 12/3 n.a. n.a. 

(all events within 72 hrs., +or-) 

New Madrid 

(50-50 chance) 

12/3 2 days >7.0 

(10/9 & 11/6 precursors) 

New Madrid 

(50-50 chance') 

New Madrid 

12/3 

12/3 

New Madrid 12/2 

(50% probability) 

Hayward, Calif. 12/2 

(<50% probability) 

Tokyo, Japan 12/2 

(>50% probability) 

2 days >7.0 

1 day n.a. 

2 days 6.5-7.5 

days 6.5-7.5 

2 days 8.2 

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Table 2. A complete list of the 'Dates of Geological High~· as provided 

by L Browning toR. Wesson, September 27, 1990, for the period 

September 19, 1985, to December 3, 1990. Requests fur the complete table 

should be directed to the author. (Note: Browning has used asterisks to 

indicate ''increasing danger.") 

19Sep 1985* 

17 Oct 1985** 

13 Nov 1985*** 

11 Dec 1985** 

8 Jan 1986* 

6Nov 1986** 

3 Dec 1986*** 

31 Dec 1986***'-" 

28 Jan 1987*** 

24 Feb 1987** 

21 Dec 1987* 

18 Jan 1988** 

15 Feb 1988*** 

14 Mar 1988** 

11 Apr 1988* 

23 Aug 1989 

19 Sep 1989* 

17 Oct 1989** 

13Nov 1989* 

11Dec 1989 

90ct 1990* 

5 Nov 1990** 

3 Dec 1990*** 

6 

Conclusion 

The Ad Hoc Working Group concludes that the most current statement of 

his prediction is: 

A 50 percent probability of a magnitude 6 112 to 7 1/2 earthquake 

in the New Madrid region on December 2 to December 3, within 

plus or minus 2 days (December 1 to December 5, 1990). The 

predicted event will be tidally triggered. 

TESTING OF THE L BROWNlNG PREDICTION 

I. Browning has chosen December 2-3, 1990, as his prediction timeframe 

because relatively large tidal accelerations will occur in northern latitudes 

on that date (there will be a near coincidence of lunar perigee and full Moon 

and maximum northem declination: the full Moon syzygy occurs on 

December 1, perigee is reached on December 2, and maximum northem 

declination is reached on December 3). In order to verify I. Browning's 

prediction, three criteria should be met: (1) The correlation of earthquakes 

and '1arge tides" must be established in order to conclude that the 

phenomenon of tidal triggering of earthquakes exists; (2) The seismic 

potential must exist for the predicted earthquake to occur at the specified 

location (New Madrid); (3) "Large tides" will occur at the stated locality on 

December 2-3, 1990. The existing seismic potential and the prospect of 

"large tides" on December 2-3, 1990 is discussed at length later in the 

report. In this section, we examine the correlation between "large tides" 

and earthquakes in general. 

There is a long history of studies of the possible correlation between 

earthquakes and Ear:th tides. Although it is beyond the scope of this report 

to comment on each of these studies, some general observations can be 

made. Despite years of study, the question of tidal triggering does not yet 

have a definitive answer. There are numerous studies that report positive 

correlations between tides and earthquakes (M. Allen, 1936; G. Tamrazyan, 

1968; T. Heaton, 1975; F. Klein, 1976; S. Kilston and L. Knopoff, 1983; 

7 

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Shirley, 1988; Weems and Perry, 1989), and there are many studies that 

were unable to find such correlations (L. Knopoff, 1964; L. Knopoff, 1970; 

T. Heaton, 1982; M. McNutt and T. Heaton, 1981; S. Hartzell and T. Heaton; 

1989). In several instances, methodologies for correlating earthquakes and 

tides that apparently yielded positive correlations were later tested with 

other data sets and were shown not to work (e.g., Heaton, 1982; McNutt and 

Heaton, 1981). In one case, a positive correlation (G. Tamrazyan, 1968) was 

shown to be the result of a mathematics error (L. Knopoff, 1970). Perhaps 

the most common problem with published studies of the correlation 

between earthquakes and tides is a misuse of statistical methods. Having 

well defined rules is essential if statistics are to have meaning. The 

statistics are invalid if results are examined before deciding whether or not 

to play the game. Although this mistake is commonly made in tidal 

triggering studies (and earthquake prediction studies in general), it is clear 

that professional casinos do not allow their patrons to make this same 

mistake. 

There are two approaches that can be used to examine I. Browning's 

hypothesis that a large earthquake (or earthquakes) will occur in the midlatitudes of the Northem Hemisphere as a result of the high tides on 

December 2, 1990. Well established physical principles can be logically 

combined to make a deterministic prediction, or a compelling empirical 

relationship can be established even though the physical principles may not 

be well understood. 

What is the theoretical basis for I. Browning's December 3, 1990, 

prediction? I. Browning chooses to parameterize Earth tides as the 

amplitude of the tidal "force vector" as a function of observer latitude and 

the positions of the Moon and the-8un relative to the Earth (see Chapter 3 of 

Stacy's book (1969) for a clear explanation). Although this vector is also a 

function of the observer's longitude (giving rise to semidiumal tides), I. 

Browning assumes that the observer is located at a longitude such that the 

moon is at its zenith. He asserts that earthquakes are likely when this tidal 

force vector reaches its absolute maximum amplitude, which generally 

occurs when a full or new moon coincides with perigee (closest approach of 

the moon) .. However, there are major conceptual difficulties with this 

8 

conjecture. It is important to recognize that there is no theoretical 

justification for a direct response of earthquakes to the tidal "force vector" 

(which in fact is an acceleration vector and not a force). In order to 

understand the response of the solid Earth to tides, it is necessary to 

consider the strains (or stresses) induced in the Earth from the integrated 

effect of differential accelerations on the entire Earth, which is considered 

as an elastic continuum. Although the calculation of the distribution of 

strain within the Earth is far more complex than the calculation used by 

I. Browning, there are well established numerical techniques for doing so 

(C. Beaumont and J. Berger, 1975). The effect of using stress (a physicaily 

meaningful parameterization) as opposed to "force vector" (not very 

physically meaningful) is somewhat unclear. In general, if the "force 

vector" becomes large because of syzygy of the Moon and Sun, then 

relatively large global tidal stresses can generally be expected. However, 

the particular latitudes in which stresses become large does depend upon 

the z-esponse ofthEtsolid. Ea~has well as the COJ!lPO_nent ·of stress that·is 

being investigated. As is demonstrated later, the peak tidal right-lateral 

shear strain on a vertically dipping plane striking N45°E at the location of 

New Madrid, Missouri, is 1.186 x 10-8 (about 0.03 bars of stress) on 

December 2-3, 1990, (excluding effects of ocean tidal loading). Although this 

is the largest tidal strain for this location that was calculated for the period 

from 1988 through 1990, a previous shear strain peak of 1.177 x 10-8 is 

calculated for January 17, 1988. In addition, there are numerous examples 

of peak tidal shear strain in excess of 1.10 x 10-8 for this time period of 1988 

through 1990. 

Is there a theoretical basis for concluding that a tidal shear strain p~ak of 

1.186 x 10-8 will trigger an earthquake in the locations mentioned by 

I. Browning? Although tidal stresses are small (tens of millibars), they are 

generally responsible for the largest daily variation observed in the Earth. 

For instance, long-term shear stress accumulation rates on the 

San Andreas fault are about 0.07 millibars per 6 hours. Furthermore, even 

larger tidal stress variations occur in some coastal regions where oceanic 

tides have a complex and significant effect on tidal stresses. Because the 

tidal stress variations are much larger than those generated by average 

long-term tectonic strain rates over equivalent time periods, one could 

9 

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conclude that it is reasonable to expect a correlation between tides and 

earthqu~es. To the contrary, conclusive evidence of such a correlation has 

not been found. If the earthquake failure process simply consists of slowly 

increasing strain until a critical value is reached, whereupon a large 

earthquake occurs, then we would expect to see tidal triggering. If this 

model is true, then we expect earthquakes to occur when the appropriate 

tidal shear stress increases the overall shear stress on the fault. However, 

evidently this simple model doesn't adequately approximate Earth physics, 

since no such correlation could be established (T. Heaton, 1982). In fact, 

there are other reasons to suspect that a simple failure model for faults is 

inappropriate; there are reasons to expect accelerating unstable slip on 

faults prior to earthquakes (J Rice and S. Tse, 1986), and there are strong 

reasons to expect that stress variations immediately after the initiation of 

rupture far exceed any tidal stress variation (T. Heaton, 1990). It is difficult 

to construct a simple failure model in which large earthquakes are tidally 

triggered, butsmall ones are not. 

Although simple models of earthquake failure lead to the expectation of 

tidal triggering, the assertion by I. Browning that a particular high tide 

can be identified that will trigger earthquakes is difficult to justify. In 

particular, S. Hartzell and T. Heaton (1989) studies the relationship 

between fortnightly tides and catalogs of earthquakes for both the southern 

California region and the E:lntire Earth. They found no correlation for the 

southern California catalog and they found a weak (and perhaps 

misleading) correlation for the global catalog. Their reported correlation 

could be accounted for by one earthquake in 80 being in phase with the 

fortnightly tides. If 79 of every 80 earthquakes occur randomly with respect 

to full and new moon, then it is difficult to understand why the earthquakes 

that will eventually hit the places mentioned by I. Browning will occur at 

one particular full Moon. According to the calculations presented later in 

this report, the shear stress at New Madrid on December 2-3, 1990, will be 

about 0.3 millibars larger than those on January 17, 1988. This is a very 

small stress, even when compared against other small stresses, such as 

those induced by atmospheric pressure changes. 

10 

To summarize, based on current theoretical understanding, we conclude 

that tides do not provide a significant trigger for earthquakes. 

Furthermore, eveu if tides do trigger earthquakes, it seems difficult to 

concoct a model that would choose the tidal peak on December 

2-3, 1990, when there are so many other tidal peaks of nearly comparable 

amplitude. Thus, there does not appear to be a theoretical basis for 

Browning's prediction, and in fact, it appears theoretically implausible. 

A second possibility remains. We may not understand the physical basis 

for I. Browning's prediction, but perhaps there could be compelling 

statistical proof of its existence. Unfortunately, there is no well defined set 

of written I. Browning predictions that were collected together so that we 

can objectively test the method. It is important to recognize that statistical 

tests formulated after the inspection of data are at best misleading. For this 

reason, it does not seem possible to rigorously test I. Browning's predictions 

against reality. We can attempfto reproduce his-method and test it against 

historical catalogs. As will be shown later, such tests do not support 

Browning's prediction of a large earthquake on December 2-3, 1990. The 

Ad Hoc Working Group concludes that although there is divergence in the 

conclusions of published studies of tidal triggering, at the time of this 

report, there does not seem to be a study which defines a methodology that 

can consistently predict the times of earthquakes in different earthquake 

catalogs. Furthermore, most studies suggest that even if tidal triggering 

exists, the effect is not large enough to allow specific predictions for one 

particular tidal peak. These observations provide a background for further 

consideration of the I. Browning December 2-3, 1990 prediction. 

IS THERE A SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR SELECTING THE NEW MADRID 

ZONE AS THE LOCATION OF A DAMAGING TIDALLY TRIGGERED 

EARTHQUAKE ON DECEMBER 2-3, 1990? 

In his videotape interview of February 19, 1990, and his telephone 

conversation (September 27, 1990) with R. Wesson, I. Browning explained 

how, within the band of latitude in which he expects tidal triggering to 

operate, he predicts where specific damaging earthquakes will occur. He 

11 

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stated that he reviews the scientific literature to determine the locations 

within the range of latitudes where: sufficient strain has accumulated; 

where the recurrence time is being approached; or where there are other 

signs of unrest. In the discussion of the testing of the I. Browning 

prediction in the preceding sections of this report, it was noted that a 

potential must exist for the predicted earthquake to occur at some time in 

the future at a specific location. In this section, we review the earthquake 

potential of the New Madrid seismic zone and examine the evidence that 

sufficient strain has accumulated for the December 2-3, 1990, Earth tide 

peak to trigger an event of the size that I. Browning proposes will occur. 

Why Earthquakes Occur in the New Madrid Area 

The New Madrid area of southeastem Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, 

western Kentucky and Tennessee, ancl southern illinois and Indiana is 

over 1,500 km from the nearest tectonic plate boundary. About 9npercent of 

all earthquakes occur along plate boundaries. In the mid-70's, studies 

showed that many of the New Madrid area earthquakes occur along a 

northeasterly trending line centered between prominent geophysical 

anomaly pattems and that the earthquake mechanisms were mostly strikeslip. Geophysical and geological studies since the 1970's have shown that 

the New Madrid area is the site of a failed arm of a crustal rift associated 

with a late Pre-Cambrian rifting event along the southern margin of the 

North American continent. The main rift segment--the Reelfoot rift--

extends for over 250 km in a northeasterly direction near the northern end 

of the Mississippi Embayment. These features are shown on Figure 1. The 

major epicentral trend of right-lateral strike-slip earthquakes that 

delineate the New Madrid seismic zone is bounded by the inferred 

boundaries of the buried Reelfoot rift. To the north, the spatial pattem of 

seismicity becomes more complex 2.nd the association of earthquakes with 

rift-related faults is a matter of current investigation. In the presence of 

the contemporary regional compressive stress field (nearly horizontal, E-W 

maximum compressional stress direction) for the Central United States, 

earthquakes primarily occur within this upper crust weakened by ancient 

rifting. 

12 

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ARKANSAS . _,_.. • · ·.ti-...... ·:. :':· · • _/~. • _. >: . "•<J: •• ::;;t:· · .. ·:·r.l: .... .- f /' ·if· . ·-'r~--: . · 

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Figure 1. Seismicity and major geologic structures in the most 

active part of the New Madrid seismic zone. The boundaries of 

the Reelfoot rift are shown by the single hachured lines. The 

boundary of the Blytheville arch is shown in the center of the 

Reelfoot rift. The dots represent the location of earthquake 

epicenters. (Figure originally prepared by F. McKeown, USGS, for 

publication in USGS Circular 1066) 

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Although paleoseismic investigations are beginning to uncover evidence of 

prehistoric earthquakes, the first well documented events in the 

New Madrid region were the three great earthquakes of December 16, 1811, 

January 23, 1812, and February 7, 1812. Each had an extensive aftershock 

sequence. Since that time, only two New Madrid events have exceeded 

magnitude 6--an M 6.0 in 1843 in the southern portion of the zone and an 

M 6.2 in 1895 in the northern portion. The zone has been monitored by 

seismic instrument networks since 197 4. Several hundred earthquakes are 

recorded each year, a rate that shows the zone is still active, but which is 

too low to significantly relieve any strain accumulation that may be 

occurring. 

Long-Term Probability of a Significant Earthquake 

Written and geologic history allow us to conclude that there has been 

persistent s.eismic activity in the New Madrid_ area, and it is therefore 

reasonable -to conclude that" future significant earthquakes Will occur. 

Several competing methodologies can be formulated to calculate long-term 

probabilities, but there is inadequate information to judge scientifically 

which is the more adequate. One reasonable estimate is from Johnston 

and Nava (1985) of a 40 to 63 percent probability of a magnitude 6 or greater 

New Madrid event in a 15-year time period. The same technique yields an 

estimate ofless than a 1 percent chance of a repeat of a magnitude 8, 1811-

sized event in a 15-year time period. A recent random earthquake model by 

Nishenko and Bollinger (1990) would lower the ·estimate of the probability of 

a magnitude 6 by a factor of 2 to 3, but it approximately doubles the 

magnitude 8 estimate. These differences reflect true uncertainties about 

the long-term behavior of a midplate earthquake zone, such as the New 

Madrid, but nevertheless they are ~n agreement as to the current existence 

of a significant hazard in the magnitude 6 to 7 range. 

bnnrinenceofFailure 

I. Browning's selection of the New Madrid zone as the site for a major 

earthquake on December 2-3, 1990, appears to be based on two factors: a 

reliance on the existence of a 179-year periodicity in tidal accelerations and 

14 

a re11ance on the work ofNuttli (1983), who estimated that strain has 

accumulated since 1811-1812 to produce an Ms 7.6 earthquake. The reality 

and applicability of the 179-year: cyde is addressed in the next section. In 

relying on Nuttli (1983), I. Browning has assumed that "significant strain 

accumulation" equates with "imminent failure." Moreover, he has relied 

on a strain estimate that is now considered by knowledgeable seismologists 

to be too large. 

The 1983 Nuttli strain estimate assumed a slip accumulation rate of 

1 cm/yr, a value that implies an unreasonably high strain rate for a 

midplate seismic zone. The actual New Madrid strain rate is unknown, 

but a more realistic rate coupled with more up-to-date conversions from 

seismic moment to earthquake magnitude yield an upper bound of about 

magnitude (Mw or Ms) 7.0 rather than Ms 7.6 as the maximum possible 

New Madrid earthquake at this time. 

The rationale for selection of the New Madrid zone from among the 

numerous seismic zones within the 30°-60° north latitude band specified by 

I. Browning is not apparent. There are other zones within the latitude 

band which probably have accumulated as much and more elastic strain 

energy. This latitude band takes in some of the major active place 

boundaries of the Earth, including the Aleutians, the Kurils, Kamchatka, 

Japan, California, and the Alpine-Himalaya belt as well as New Madrid. 

I. Browning, as Table 1 indicates, believes that the December 2-3, 1990, tidal 

conditions could also trigger an event in California or Japan. The fact is 

that no earth scie:ntist can project which fault(s) within these zones is so 

imminently close to failure that an increment of only 0.3 millibars larger 

than the tidal peak on January 17, 1988, will trigger it. 

Conclusions 

The Ad Hoc Working Group states with confidence that the New Madrid 

zone is not known to be any closer to a major earthquake failure mode than 

the other faults within the ensemble of plate boundaries cited above. 

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The Ad Hoc Working Group further concludes that, although a long-term 

large earthquake potential does indeed exist for New Madrid, there is 

absolutely no scientific basis for selecting New Madrid from among other 

seismic zones as the site of a major earthquake on December 2-3, 1990. 

Such a projection, especially at the predicted 50-50 chance level, implies a 

level of detailed knowledge of fault loading and fault dynamics that simply 

does not exist for New Madrid or any other fault zone in the world. 

Therefore, the Working Group's observation is that the selection of 

New Madrid zone for failur~ due to tidal effects on December 2-3, 1990, is not 

scientifically supportable. 

ANALYSIS OF THE TIDE DATA EMPLOYED IN THE 

L BROWNING PREDICTION 

Methodology 

In this section we discuss the methodology used by I. Browning to arrive at 

the date of December 2-3, 1990, for a repeat of the New Madrid earthquake. 

Since these methods have not been set down in one place, some of this is a 

reconstruction of the procedures from what evidence is available. We have 

included comments on these procedures when this seemed appropriate. 

As noted previously, the basic quantity used by I. Browning in his 

prediction is the total tidal force at a particular· latitude. At any location the 

tide-generating force has both horizontal and vertical components. 

I. Browning uses the magnitude of the vector sum of both components as 

the number of interest, computing this as a function of time for a particular 

latitude. We have also noted earlier that there is no apparent physical 

reason why this force should be relevant to earthquake triggering; the body 

force on the region around a fault is much smaller than the tractions 

exerted on it by the surrounding material which are expressed by the strain 

tides rather than the tidal force. 

16 

To compute the tidal force, I. Browning uses a program provided by 

R. S. Harrington of the U.S. Naval Observatory. This program should give 

results o1f accuracy similar to Longman (1958). The program as actually 

written computes the tidal force at a point with the specified latitude and a 

longitude such that the Moon is on the meridian. This will in general not 

coincide with the point of maximum diurnal tide except at new and full 

moon when the Sun and Moon are in nearly the same (or opposite) 

directions. The curves in the following figures show only the peak values 

for each month, for which such conditions apply. 

Figures 2a, 2b, and 2c show the monthly peaks of tidal force computed for 

three different latitude~ using Harrington's program. The units are 

arbitrary (set to a value of 1 for the solar tide at perihelion). Figure 2a 

shows the peak values at 30° N, and illustrates a long-term cycle in the 

annual peak values. As stated by I. Browning, an especially large peak 

occurs on December 2-a, 1990. In comparing tide values, the next closest 

peak just below the December 2-3, 1990, value was on December 30, 1982, 

and was 0.06 percent smaller. The previous closest larger peak was on 

December 19, 1964, and was 0.07 percent larger. Figures 2b and 2c show 

similar computations for the latitudes of the Equator and 30° S. Figure 2d 

shows times of "Geologic Danger" from the list of "Dates of Geological 

Danger High Tidal Forces" distributed in December 1985 by I. Browning, 

(Table 2 of this report). The table gives different numbers of asterisks to 

specific dates, which we have converted to numerical rankings (Figure 2d). 

Comparing the Figures 2a, 2b, and 2c with Figures 2d, it is apparent that 

I. Browning's 1986, 1987, and 1988 dates correspond to the highest peaks in 

the Southern Hemisphere and the 1990 and 1991 dates correspond to the 

highest peaks in the Northern Hemisphere. Apparently I. Browri.ing does 

not consider peaks in the equatorial regions to be able to trigger events. 

However, the details do not completely agree with this premise. For 

example, in late 1989 the largest peak tide is in November (Figure 2a) but 

the highest I. Browning "danger date" (Table 2) is listed in October, while 

in 1990 the highest "danger date" does correspond to the highest peak. The 

rationale for this departure from the use of peak tides is not explained by 

I. Browning. 

17 

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1986 1988 1990 

Peak Tides at 0° 

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6.8 

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1986 1988 1990 

Peak Tides at 30° S 

F ~ I( 

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1986 1988 1990 

Browning's Warning Levels 

4.0~ 3.0 * ** ~ * * ··~ 2d 

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1.0 0. * * I * * I I * ** * * 

1986 1988 1990 

Figure 2 

I. Browning also prepared a table in late 1989 which shows the correlations 

he has made between "Dates of Geological Danger" and volcanic erupti~ns 

and earthquakes (Table 3 of this report). As noted previously, it is not clear 

why the particular latitudes of ±30° are chosen, or how this choice limits 

the area of predictions, since a number of the confirmations claimed on 

I. Browning's list are from very different latitudes than the tidal peaks. For 

example, Browning correlates the peak of November 1985 (see Table 2) with 

volcanic eruptions in Papua New Guinea (on the Equator), Colombia 

(slightly north of the Equator) and the USSR (high northern latitudes); but 

as the Figures 2a and 2c make clear, the peak tides at this time were in the 

Southern Hemisphere. We were not able to resolve this contradiction. 

As also indicated in the preceding section of this report, I. Browning 

indicates that he selects, out of many possible trigger points, those that are 

most nearly loaded; the grounds on which this choice is made are unclear. 

The Ad Hoc Working Group-knows-of-nopioceduref~whether accepted or 

even proposed, for making more than the most general of statements about 

the proximity of a fault to rupture or of a volcano to eruption. The only 

justification for the choice of the New Madrid area that we are aware of is 

that I. Browning claims that 1990 falls 179 years after the start of the 

earthquake sequence of 1311-1812, and that the tides exhibit a cycle of this 

period so that the tidal situation on December 2-3, 1990, is a repeat of the 

events in late 1811 and early 1812. While the 179 year difference in dates is 

incontrovertible, there is room for doubt about the existence of such a tidal 

cycle. I. Browning's basis for it is presumably the analysis by R. Roosen, 

R. Harrington, J. Giles, and I. Browning (1976) of a long record of synthetic 

tides; unfortunately, this analysis appears to have created an average 

period that does not show up in recent times. As evidence of this, Figures 

3a and 3b show monthly tidal peaks calculated from Harrington's program 

for the two periods of interest, and at the 30° N latitude. It is at once 

apparent that the peak that corresponds to that in 1990 occurred at the end 

of 1813 and well after the start of the New Madrid sequence Gate 1811 and 

early 1812); the parallel peak to that oflate 1811 was in late 1988. The cycle 

length ofthe tidepeak cycle thus appears to be not 179, but 177 years. 

19 

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Conclusions 

The Ad Hoc Working Group believes that the tidal cycle provides no basis 

for the selection of a repetition of the New Madrid earthquake as a likely 

event for the end of 1990. The Ad Hoc Working Group further finds that the 

intensity of the December 1990 tidal peak is not materially above the level 

already experienced in 1988, posing the question as to why the earlier 

condition did not trigger the earthquake that I. Browning expects in 

December. Finally, in considering the feasibility of the tidal triggering 

phenomenon, the tidal force cited by I. Browning is much smaller than the 

tractions exerted by surrounding material (strain tides), so that the group 

questions his choice of the vector sum dimension. The Ad Hoc Working 

Group can identify no reason why the probability of a magnitude 6 112 to 

7 112 event occurring in December 2-3, 1990, timeframe would exceed the 

generally accepted base level of probability of events of that size associated 

with the New Madrid seismic zone. L Browning has proposed the 

correlation of the late 1811 and early 1812 earthquake sequence with the 

December 2-3, 1990, tidal peak as part of a 179-year tidal cycle. This 

correlation is also rejected by the Ad Hoc Working Group. 

ANALYSIS OF THE GENERAL SUCCESS OF THE L BROWNING 

:METIIOD-VOLCANIC ERUPI'IONS 

I. Browning asserts that (1) Earth tide maxima can trigger volcanic 

eruptions and (2) that volcanic eruptions are likely during periods of 

maximum tidal stress. Because the credibility of I. Browning's earthquake 

prediction depends in part on his assertions about volcanic activity, we 

examine those assertions here. Discussion is divided into five sections: 

eruptions; comparison of eruption frequencies in the northern and 

southern hemispheres, and a possible 180-year periodicity in eruptive 

activity. 

20 

Peak Tides at 30° N (I) 

7.2 

6.8 

6.4 

5.6 

1810 1812 1814 

Peak Tides at 30° N (II) 

7.2 

6.8 

6.4 

6.0 

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1986 1988 1990 1992 

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Eruptions and Eruption Phases 

The course of a volcanic eruption is highly variable. Some eruptions start 

and stop within a period of hours, but most last for weeks to years and 

sometimes even decades. Some are continuous from start to finish; most 

exhibit intermittent or fluctuating levels of activity. i.e., multiple phases. 

Most eruptions start as phreatic (steam) explosions; many, though not all, 

evolve from phreatic into magmatic eruptions as magma rises above the 

water table to the surface. Accordingly, a discussion of possible 

correlations between volcanic eruptions and Earth tides must begin with 

definitions of eruptions and eruption phases. Interpretation of any 

correlation must also recognize that processes which might trigger 

different phases of an eruption vary according to the type and stage of 

eruption. 

For consistency,- the Smithsonian'F>'Volcanoes-of the World" (T.·Simkirr 

and others, 1981) counts a new eruption each time a volcano ejects solid or 

molten rock after a quiescence of at least 3 months. Ejections separated by 

periods less than 3 months are considered phases of one eruption. The 

catalog of eruption starts in the 1980's is reasonably complete, thanks to an 

extensive network of Smithsonian correspondents and information from 

satellites. The catalog of eruption phases during the 1980's, however, is 

still seriously incomplete.- Phases are reported by some eruptions, but are 

unknown for many others. Because I. Browning's projections are for 

infrequent events to occur at infrequent tidal maxima (each separated by 

much longer than 3 months), we consider a set consisting only of the 

starting dates of eruptions as listed in the Smithsonian catalog. Because I. 

Browning claims to have predicted several events that were second or later 

phases of an eruption, we consider another set consisting of both initial and 

later phases. Both sets exclude eruptions that are continuous for months to 

decades, and thus whose eruption on a specific I. Browning "danger date" 

is insignificant. 

22 

Previous Work 

F. Mauk and M. Johnston (1973) found that approximately 14 percent. oftne 

world's subaerial eruptions start on the day of fortnightly tidal maximum; 

about 10 percent start on the fortnightly minimum. Both values are higher 

than the 7.1 percent per day that would be expected in a random 

distribution, but low enough to suggest that fortnightly Earth tides are only 

one of several factors that determine when an eruption will begin. Several 

other studies .confirm a weak, but statistically significant fortnightly 

influence in triggering eruptions or eruption phases, especially at 

volcanoes where magma is already close to the Earth's surface (for 

example, M. Johnston and S. Mauk, 1972, W. Hamilton, 1973; M. Michael 

and D. Christoffel, 1975; M. Golombeck and M. Carr, 1978; D. Dzurisin, 

1980; D. Swanson and others, 1987). At many volcanoes, eruptions show no 

relation to fortnightly Earth tides. 

Correlation of eruptions with longer periods of tides--of primary important 

to I. Browning's earthquake prediction--is doubtful at best. Hamilton (1973) 

speculated about annual and 18.6 year cycles in eruptions but the data he 

presented are not compelling. P.R. Bell (pers. comm.to C. Newhall, 

January 1984) found what appeared to be a correlation between eruptions 

and the same 413-day periodicity cited by I. Browning (periodic coincidence 

of new moon and perigee); however, P. R. Bell subsequently retracted his 

conclusion after discovering that it was an artifact of rapid variation in the 

time of lunar perigee twice each perigean spring· tide cycle (P. R. Bell, pers. 

comm., June 14, 1984). Other supposed patterns have disappeared after 

new data are considered. For example, an inference of seasonal eruption 

frequency peaking in the early spring (A. Eggers and R. Decker, 1969) 

disappeared in examination of the more complete catalog ofT. Simkin and 

others (1981) by R. Stothers (unpublished). 

Stress changes induced by fortnightly Earth tides are small (maximum 10-2 

bar) compared with stresses needed to fracture rock (101 to 103 bar). 

Therefore, we do not think that tides can trigger eruptions by fracturing a 

pathway for that magma to the surface. However, rates of stress 

accumulation during fortnightly Earth tides can be up to 10-5 barfs. Rates 

23 

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of stress accumulation in and around magma before eruptions are known 

to range from lQ-7 barfs to lQ-4 barfs (R. Sparks, 1981) and probably span an 

even wider range than that. In concept, but without rigorous testing, we 

expect that if the fortnightly Earth tides are to have an effect on eruptions, 

they are most likely to trigger eruptions from magma at or near the 

surface, within which stress has been accumulating at a rate slower than 

that which would be induced by tides. 

CoiTelation Between L Browning's ''Danger Days'' and Eruptions 

Is the number of eruptions starting within± 2 days of I. Browning's "dates 

of maximum danger" (Browning Newsletter, November 1989, p. 2) greater 

than the number of eruptions that would have occurred on the same 

number of days if eruptions occur randomly in time? 

I. Browning has 20 days of "high geologic {}anger" in the period 1985-1989 

(Table 2). Allowing a 2-day window on either side of each "danger day," 

there have been 100 inferred "danger days" in a period of 1,826 days. One 

hundred forty-six (146) eruptions started during the period 1985-1989 

(29.2±5.4/year). In a random distribution of eruptions through time, the 

expected number of starts in 100 days is 7 .9; the number of starts during I. 

Browning's 100 days of "danger" was 4. There was no anomalous 

concentration of eruptions around I. Browning's "danger days" in the 

period 1985-1989. If we consider the set of both initial and later phases of 

eruptions, i.e., eruption starts and starts of later phases, we find a similar 

result. A total of 277 events occurred during the period 1985-1989 

(55.4±13.8fyear). In a random distribution of eruption and phase starts 

through time, the expected number of starts in 100 days is 15.2; the number 

of eruption and phase starts during I. Browning's 100 days of "danger" was 

9. 

If we accept that there is no statistical evidence for enhanced danger of 

eruptions, how can we explain supposedly "successful" projections by I. 

Browning? 

24 

I. Browning is reported to have told an audience in Portland, Oregon, on 

May 12, 1980, that an outburst from Mount St. Helens was likely "within 

about a week.'' The climatic erupt.ion occurr·~d on May 18, 1980. However, 

I. Browning's statement was less prescient than it might seem. The 

volcano had been erupting frequently since March 27 and its north flank 

was widely reported to be bulging at about 2 meters per day, an astounding 

and worrisome rate. The newspapers in Portland were full of warnings 

from geologists that a major eruption was imminent and, acting on advice 

from geologists, the U.S. Forest Service and the State of Washington had 

evacuated and closed a large area around the volcano. 

Furthermore, the closest fortnightly tidal maximum (May 14) was not an 

exceptionally high maximum; 31 tidal maxima during the 1970's and 36 

more during the 1980's were stronger than that of May 14, 1980, and we 

have not seen evidence that I. Browning identified May 14 as a "danger 

day" until his speech in Portlar{CI--~here it could not faif to be influenced by 

highly publicized, unmistakable evidence of danger at Mount St. Helens. 

Browning has cited other eruptions which claims began on his "danger 

days" with the implication that these were anticipated. We have no 

indication of any but the most general anticipation--e.g., that "frequent 

eruptions" were to be expected in the Southem Hemisphere in the period 

bracketing December 1986, and in the Northem Hemisphere after early 

1987 (Browning Newsletter, September 1989, p. 3, and November 1989, p. 2). 

One eruption phase in particular--that of Nevada del Ruiz on November 13, 

1985--was cited by I. Browning in his conversation with Wesson (S~ptember 

27, 1990). As at Mount St. Helens, the eruption ofNevado del Ruiz had 

already begun (in September 1985), attended locally by considerable publicity 

and public waming. The second, deadly phase of this eruption did occur on 

an I. Browning "danger day," but nowhere in the considerable volume of 

postmortem inquiry about this eruption is there any indication that I. 

Browning or anyone else had forecast an eruption of Nevado del Ruiz on 

this particular date. The issues of foresight and specificity are important; 

any claim to have foreseen a specific event must be backed by a documented, 

public prediction of that event before the event occurred; anything less is 

wishful thinking. 

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Comparison of Eruption Frequencies in the Northern and 

Southern Hemispheres 

I. Browning asserts that an anomalously high number of eruptions 

occurred in the Southern Hemisphere during the 2 years surrounding 

December 1986, and that a similar anomaly should occur in the northern 

hemisphere in 1989-1991. Of 1,343 volcanoes list in T. Simkin et al., 1981, 

437 (32.5 percent) are in the southern hemisphere. Of 118 volcanoes known 

to be active in 1986 and 1987, 45 (38 percent) were in the Southern 

Hemisphere. Of the 54 volcanoes known to be active in 1989, 20 (37 percent) 

were in the southern hemisphere. This is not a significant difference. 

Is there a 180-Year Periodicity in Eruptive Activity? 

R. Roosen-and othe_rs (1976}infetre-d a 180-year periodicity in volcanic 

activity from 18Qfl6Q temperatures in a Greenland ice core, attributed it to 

episodic volcanic eruptions triggered by a 179.3 -year period in Earth tides 

and hypothesized that a similar 180-year pattern should be duplicated, 180° 

out of phase, in Antarctic ice cores. Work by S. Johnsen and others (1972) 

and C. Lorius and others (1985) fails to show any such pattern, although 

with slower accumulation rates for Antarctic ice cores, we are not sure that 

a 179-year periodicity would. be resolvable. 

26 

ANALYSIS OF THE GENERAL SUCCESS OF THE BROWNING 

METHOD-EARrHQUAKES 

I. Browning has based the credibility of his prediction of the December 3, 

1990, New Madrid earthquake, in part, on his past successes at correlating 

earthquakes and high tidal vectors. There are two aspects to this asserted 

success: (1) he states that there is statistical increase in earthquake activity 

worldwide on or about his "dangerous dates" and (2) he points to specific 

historic earthquakes that occurred on his high tidal vector ("dangerous") 

dates, which he claims to be successes. 

A primary difficulty we have had in evaluating his success lies in defining 

precisely what he has predicted. For a given tidal high, we have not been 

able to determine from his lists what areas of the Earth he is predicting to 

be in high danger. His table seems to carry implications that regions at 

risk are different on various of these dates, but t!'Iere seems to be no 

consistency. Furthermore, there is no indication as to a range of 

earthquake magnitudes that he is predicting for any given tidal high. 

Therefore, in his lists, he seems to name as successes earthquakes that fall 

on one of his tidal high dates irrespective of geographic location or 

magnitude. 

We found there to be no apparent way to judge either from his table or from 

R. Wesson's or conversations with I. Browning how he assigns a 

confidence level to his predictions. He refers to "enhanced probability" in 

his September 27letter and to "an estimate from observation" in his 

telephone conversation with R. Wesson, but there is no evidence to suggest 

that his 50 percent probability statements for December 3, 1990, have any 

formal basis. 

Correlation of the Global Seismicity Catalog with 

L Browning's 'Dates of Geological Danger'' 

In the table of 35 dates which I. Browning prepared in 1985, he considered 

"dangerous dates" for both earthquakes and volcanoes, with some 

27 

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annotations made this summer. He still bases his future predictions on 

that table. We do not know when the table was first prepared, but we do 

know that it was in the hands oi' i..1. LLllr(: party by December of 1985. In order 

to compare the level of seismicity on the "dangerous dates" with the level 

throughout the rest of the year, we requested that th~ National Earthquake 

Information Center (NEIC), Golden, Colorado, assemble a catalog of 

earthquakes occurring between September 19, 1985, and September 28, 1990. 

We requested that the catalog contain all earthquakes with magnitudes 

equal to or greater than 6.5, which is the threshold range I. Browning is 

currently predicting for New Madrid. The catalog cites events by date, 

latitude, longitude, and magnitude. 

Three separate correlation runs were made. Ill each case we allowed the 

"danger dates" an expanded window extending from 3 days before to 3 days 

after the given date in I. Browning's table. The first run considered only 

the period from January 1, -1986; through S-ept~mber 28, 1990, because it was 

not clear whether the September to December 1985 period on his table was 

prospectively identified. This run considered earthquakes worldwide. 

During this period, the NEIC reported 164 earthquakes with magnitudes of 

6.5 or greater. I. Browning cites 16 danger days within this period and, by 

allowing him a 7-day interval about each danger day, we have a total of 112 

days included in the Browning windows. There is a total of 1,732 days in 

the time period. If the earthquakes were random with a uniform 

distribution, we would expect (112/1732)x164, or 10.6 earthquakes to occur 

during the Browning windows. Counting up the actual number of 

earthquakes that occurred during these windows, we find 12. Thus, this 

correlation concludes that Browning "predictions" are not significantly 

different than random. 

The second run adds the time interval from September 1, 1985, to December 

31, 1985, to the previous run. The total number of earthquakes increases to 

182, the number of earthquakes during the Browning 7 -day windows 

increases to 14, the total number of Browning window days increases to 140, 

and the total number of days increases to 1,854. The expected number of 

earthquakes under random, uniform distribution conditions during the 

28 

Browning windows is (140/1854)x182, or 13.7 events. Again, the results 

show that Browning's "predictions" are equivalent to random. 

The third run considers only the earthquakes that occurred in the range of 

latitudes from 30 to 60 degrees north and south. These latitudes were 

selected because on the video tape marketed by I. Browning and in other 

documents, these latitudes are specifically mentioned. During the time 

window of September 1, 1985. to September 28, 1990, a tptal of 55 earthquakes 

occurred; three of these occurred within the Browning windows. The 

expected number, by random chance, would be (140/1854)x55, or 4.2 

earthquakes during the_ ~rowning windows. Again, comparing three 

actual earthquakes with 4.2 projected randomly, we can only conclude that 

I. Browning's method is no better than random. 

Review of Specific L Browning Predictions 

On the video tape of Browning of September 16, 1989, and February 19, 1990, 

as well as in various newspaper articles and Browning's newsletters, there 

are specific statements made that he had predicted the San Femando, 

California, earthquake (February 9, 1971), the Managua, Nicaragua, 

earthquake (December 23, 1972), and the Lorna Prieta, Califomia, 

earthquake (October 17, 1989). We will review what we know of each of 

these "successes." The Ad Hoc Working Group examined tidal fluctuations 

calculated for these regions for several months preceding and following 

each earthquake, to evaluate possible correlations. 

• San Fernando, California 

This earthquake had a moderately large magnitude of 6.6 and attracted 

great public attention because of its affect on the Los Angeles basin. The 

event occurred over 19 years ago, and we could find no evidence to 

document whether I. Browning had predicted it prospectively, or had 

merely retrospectively noted its occurrence. Nevertheless, the San 

Fernando earthquake occurred on a fortnightly tidal maximum. It should 

be added, however, that this maximum was significantly smaller than at 

least ten maxima which had occurred over the prior 7 months. 

29 

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Managua, Nicaragua 

The Managua earthquake was of moderate magnitude, 6.2, but had 

substantial media coverage and study because it occurred directly beneath 

the city, resulting in major damage. This event occurred in December 1972, 

and we can find no evidence to indicate that this earthquake was predicted 

by Brpwning in advance of its occurrence. From our calculations, we 

conclude that the earthquake occurred a few days after the fortnightly tidal 

maximum. Moreover, that maximum was not particularly large and was 

preceded by three larger maxima between late September and late 

November of 1972. 

• Lorna Prieta, California 

This earthquake (M-7.1) was-the largest to-occur on- the San Andreas fault 

since the San Francisco earthquake of 1906. In reviewing the video tape of 

I. Browning made on September 16, 1989, he states that there will be a tidal 

maximum on October 16 and "earthquakes will go off and also a volcano or 

two." There was no specific mention of California, the San Andreas fault, 

or of any specific geographic region. He claims to have made a specific 

prediction of Lorna Prieta a few days before the earthquake while giving a 

talk in San Francisco on October 10, 1990. We have been provided a 

transcript of his exact words at that conference. His statement was "there 

will probably be several earthquakes around the ·world, Richter 6+, and 

there may be a volcano or two." No mention is made of an earthquake 

occurring in the San Francisco area or even California. 

Because I. Browning did not specify any location or a magnitude, he can 

hardly be given credit for a successful prediction. Over the past 10 years, 

there has been an average of about 110 earthquakes per year of magnitude 

6.0 and greater throughout the world. The likelihood of such an earthquake 

occurring within a 3-day window is therefore very high. Earthquakes of 

magnitude 7.0 and larger have occurred at a rate of about 11 per year over 

the past 10 years. The likelihood of an earthquake of that magnitude 

occurring over the 3-day period would be about 1 in 11. 

30 

Conclusion 

In summary, I. Browning's correlations of earthquake activity with danger 

periods at times of highs in tidal forces does no better at predicting 

earthquakes of magnitudes greater than 6.5 than does random guessing. 

Successes claimed for predictions of specific earthquakes, in almost all 

cases, are not very compelling. Since there is no record of publically stated 

specific earthquake predictions that he made prior to 1989, we can only 

infer that successes claimed before that time were retrospective, that is, 

that he found, after the fact, that certain earthquakes occurred during 

times of his "danger periods." He did not specify the San Francisco Bay 

area in his October 10, 1989 prediction. Thus, the Ad Hoc Working Group 

rejects the claim that he predicted the Lorna Prieta October 17, 1989, 

earthquake. 

31 

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REFERENCES 

Allen, M. W., 1936, The lunar triggering effect on earthquakes in southern 

California: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 26, p. 

147-157 .. 

Beaumont, C. and Berger, J., 1975, An analysis of tidal strain observations 

from the United States of America--I. the laterally homogeneous 

tide: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 65, p. 1613-

1639. 

Dzurisin, D., 1980, Influence of fortnightly earthtides at Kilauea Volcano, 

Hawaii: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 7, p. 925-928. 

Eggers; A. A., and Decker, R. W., 1969, Frequency ofhistoricvolCanic 

eruptions (abstr.): Transactions of the American Geophysical 

Union, v. 50, p. 343. 

Gologmbek, M. P. and Carr, M. J., 1978, Tidal triggering of seismic and 

volcanic phenomena during the 1879-1880 eruption islas quemadas 

Volcano in El Salvador, Central America: Journal of Vol canol. 

Geotherm. Research; v. 3, p. 299-307. 

Hamilton, W. L., 1973, Tidal cycles of volcanic eruptions--fortnightly to 19 

year periods: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 78, p. 3363-3375. 

Hartzell, S. H. and Heaton, T. H., 1989, The fortnightly tide and the tidal 

triggering of earthquakes: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of 

America, v. 79, p. 1282-1286; see erratum 1990, v. 80, p. 504-505. 

Heaton, T. H., 1975, Tidal triggering of earthquakes: Geophysical Journal, 

V. 43, p. 307-326. 

Heaton, T. H., 1982, Tidal triggering of earthquakes: Bulletin of the 

Seismological Society of America, v. 72, p. 2181-2200 .. 

32 

Heaton, T. H., 1990, Evidence for and implications of self-healing pulses of 

slip in earthquake rupture: Physics of the Earth & Planetary 

Interiors, in press. 

Johnsen, S. J., Dansgaard, W., Clausen, H. B., and Langway, C. C., Jr., 

1972, Oxygen isotope profiles through the Antarctic and Greenland 

Ice sheets: Nature, v. 235, p. 429-434. 

Johnston, A. C. and Nava, S. J., 1985, Recurrence rates and probability 

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Johnston, M. J. S. and Mauk, F. J., 1972, Earth tides and the triggering of 

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Kilston, S. and Knopoff, L., 1983, Lunar-solar periodicities of large 

earthquakes in southern California: Nature, v. 304, p. 21-25. 

IGein, F. W., 1976, Earthquake swarms and the semi-diurnal solid earth 

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Knopoff, L., 1964, Earth tides as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes: 

Bulletin Seismological Society of America, v. 54, p. 1865-1870. 

Knopoff, L., 1970 Correlation of earthquakes with lunar orbital motions: 

The Moon, 2, 140-143. 

Longman, I. M., 1959, Formulae for computing the tidal acceleratio~ due to 

the moon and sun: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 64, p. 2351-

2355. 

Lorius, C., Jouzel, J., Ritz, C., Merlivat, L., Barkov, N. I., Korotkevich, Y. 

S., and Kotyakov, V. M., 1985, A 150,000 year climatic record from 

Antarctic Ice: Nature, v. 316, p. 591-596. 

33 

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~ ~ 

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~ 

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~ 
Mauk, F. J. and Johnston, M. J. S., 1973, On the triggering ofvolcanic 

eruptions of earth tides: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 78, p. 

3356-3362. 

McNutt, M., and Heaton, T. H., 1981, An evaluation of the seismic window 

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12-16. 

Michael, M. 0., and Christoffel, D-. A., 1975, Triggering of eruptions of Mt. 

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1974: New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, v. 18, p. 273-

277. 

Nishenko, S. P. and Bollinger, G. A., 1990, Forecasting damaging 

earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States: Science, v. 

249;p. 1412-1416. 

Nuttli, 0. W., 1983, Average seismic source-parameter relations for midplate earthquakes: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 

V. 73, p. 519-535. 

Rice, J. R., and Tse, S. T., 1986, Dynamic motion on a single degree of 

freedom system following a rate- and state-dependent friction law: 

Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 91, p. 521-520. 

Roosen, R. G., Harrington, R. S., Giles, J., and Browning, I., 1976, Earth 

tides, volcanoes, and climatic change: Nature, v. 261, p. 680-682. 

Shirley, J. H., 1988, Lunar and solar periodioties of large earthquakes: 

Southern California and the Alaska-Aleutian Islands seismic 

region: Geophysical Journal, v. 92, p. 403-420. 

Simkin, T., Siebert, L., McCleeland, L., Bridge, D., Newhall, C., and 

Latter, J. H., 1981, Volcanoes ofthe World: A regional directory, 

gazetteer, and chronology ofvolcanism during the last 10,000 years, 

Hutchinson Ross Publ. Co., Stroudsburg, PA, 232 p. 

34 

Stacey, F. D., 1969, Physics of the Earth: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New 

York, 324 p. 

Tamrazyan, G. P., Principal regularities in the distribution of major 

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States: Geology, v. 17,661-664. 

35 

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APPENDIX B-OFFICIAL STATEMENTS ON THE PREDICTION 

STATE:MENT FROM THE CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE STUDIES 

DR. DAVID STEWART, DIRECTOR 

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE UNIVERSITY 

OCTOBER 19, 1990 

I have been asked by the news media to respond to a report issued Oct. 18 by the 

Ad-Hoc Working Group on the Dec. 2-3, 1990 Earthquake Prediction. I am issuing this 

statement as my response. 

Although I have not yet had the opportunity to carefully study the 57-page 

document, my preliminary review of the report leads me to conclude that Dr. Iben 

Browning's methodology has been neither verified nor disproven by the scientific method 

at this time. 

The scientific probability forecasts for this decade imply the possibility of damaging 

earthquakes 6.3 to 7.6 in size at any time. However, such forecasts are not able to assign a 

higher probability to the Dec. 3, 1990, date nor to any other date during the 1990s. By the 

present level of scientific methodology all dates between 1990 and 2000 are equally likely 

to have a damaging earthquake along the New Madrid Fault System. 

With or without an earthquake on Dec. 3, this region remains much better prepared 

for an earthquake than we were six months ago, but there is much work yet to be done. I 

encourage everyone living within 200 miles of the New Madrid Fault Zone to take 

appropriate safety and preparation measures to be ready for an earthquake that could 

happen on any day. 

67 

APPENDIX C 

THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 

A chronological set of press clippings relating to Browning's prediction. Each 

article is identified by its publication date (month-day-year) and the name of the 

publication in which it appeared. 

A widely published but misleading map of estimated intensities 

(indicated by Roman numerals) from a magnitude 7.5 earthquake 

on the New Madrid fault. In fact, no single event could produce 

such a widespread intensity pattem. The map is a composite 

showing the greatest possible distance range for a given intensity 

arising from magnitude 7.5 earthquakes anywhere along the fault. 

(From the 7-15-90 Jackson, Miss., Clarion-Ledger.) 
70 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

10-22-89 

St. Louis Sun 

Reprinted by permission 

of the Associated Press 

Money woes 

Seismic system may close 

EVANSVILLE, Ind. (AP) - mographs relay information 

Funding cutbacks could lead into the two universities. 

to the dismantling of an 81- "Our network is in jeoparstation seismic network _,in dy because I don't know how 

the New Madrid Fault reiion we are going to get funding 

that runs from Missouri to . the next few years," geophyssoutheastem Indiana. ics professor Robert Herrm- . Walter Hays, deputy chief aim of St. Louis University 

for research applications with told The Evansville Courier. 

the· U.S. Geological Survey, "Our monitoring in the 

said the national agency Wabash Valley may be comresponsible for monitoring . ing to an end." 

earthquakes doesn't have the -The system has recorded 

funding to provide both . a 3,500 mostly small quakes in 

national network and support the Midwest since 1975. 

for the regional system. The Wabash Valley area, 

St. Louis University and especially southern Illinois, 

:\1emphis State University has been tlie most· active of 

operate a "regional network" the New Madrid Fault system, 

of 81 seismographs through- Herrmann said. He· said the 

out the Midwest, most along • largest earthquake of the past 

the system of underground 20 years, a 5 on the Richter 

faults associated with the scale, was centered near 

!':lew. Madtid.f~ul~, .'I:he s.ejs-. .. La.\'lf.eJl$!~Yi.lle, Jll., in 1987. 

10-24-89 

St. Louis Sun 

10-23-89 

St. Louis Sun 

Reprinted by permission 

of the Associated Press 

Missouri team to study 

S.F. in quake aftennath 

JEFFERSON CITY (AP) - The State Emergency Management Agency· will send a team to 

San Francisco to see what they can learn from 

the disaster, but they won't go until the situation 

is less hectic, officials said. 

"We plan to send some people, but we're 

going to do it _at a time when we won'.t be 

interfering with .their rescue and recovery 

efforts," said SEMA.spokesman Dennis Mobrice. 

The New Madrid Fault is centered about 150 

south of St. Louis, running from Marked Tree, 

Ark., to southern illinois. 

Geological convention will have a fresh topic 

By JENNIFER FEEHAN cialists Walter Mooney of the used .at schools. in the San FranSL Louis Sun staff U.S. Geological Survey and Wal- cisco Bay area. ter Alvarez of the Department of More than 4,800 earth scienGeology and Geophysics at the tists from across the country are University . of California at expected to attend the conferBerkeley will discuss last week's ence, which \\ill address a vanquake in California as well as ety of geological issues. Of parthe New Madrid fault in Missou- ticular local interest, researchers 

ri. · 'vill discuss the negative effects 

ST. LOUIS - The recent 

earthquake in San Francisco has 

prompted the Geological Society 

of America to add a special ses- sion on the quake at an upcoming meeting here. The Geological Society of 

America will hold its 101st 

annual meeting at Cervantes 

Convention Center Nov. 5-9. On Nov. 7, earthquake speLocal elementary science that alteration to the Mississippi 

teachers have oeen invited to River has had over the past 

attend a session on teaching 12,000 years, beginning ·when 

about earthquakes, based on a ancient cultures diverted the 

pilot program that has /been water for agriculture. 
Prepare 

now-for 

quake 

The Sun's coverage of the 

San Francisco-Oakland 

earthquake has been .vezy 

good. However, I agree that 

St. Louis Is not prepared to even handle an .earthquake 

of the magnlbJde the Bay 

Area saw. Watching what happened 

on the Cypress Street VI&· 

duct, a 1.5 mile stretch of 

Interstate 880. reminds-me 

of the elevated highways In 

downtown St. Louis, partlc· 

u1arly I-64, · U.S . . 40 from 

Vandeventer Ave. east to the 

1-55-70-64 split In Fairview 

Heights, U.: ·. . St. Louis Is unprepared. I 

was happy to hear that the 

eastbound span ·of the BJan. 

chette Memorial Bridge can 

withstand an earthquake, but 

what about the . westbound 

span, which . was · ·bu!Jt in 

1956? 

They are worldng on .the 

Darilel Boone :· Bridge . . In 

Chesterlield. 8ureJ1 the, new eastbound .. span ·can ··withstand the stress, but what 

about the. weatbound span? 

That one. was bullt·tn 1936:-

Experta have. been sayi11g 

that a· nll,)or earthquake can 

happen In the New Madrid 

Fault . region . any day 

between · now ·and ·the year 

2027. The Jast. big quae 

here wu tit 1811. ·;.'The last 

tremor In the St. . Louts 

region was a 3.5 In .1988, 

·.,I, hope· that the ;Bay '.Area 

qualce o!. the past , week will 

be, -~- lesson JOT .St. ;~ Louis 

.gendes to get, prepared -

· '/ ---~:-· .. :' .. ~ ~. -~: ·;f :·' ~ ~~~-. · .. 

:~:~ . ~: f>~ J:stA~ ;; .. . DOD 

Picture this ~~eenarto: ·The 

New',. Madrid Fault triggers 

an . 'earthquake . and causes 

tenible · ,,and :: devastating 

damage 'll'ier .. N'Vl!ral states. Where · will law enforcement . prtOrtttes: be. distributed? . To -' apprel\end · loosened 

he!Iious murderers who will 

'prey on disoriented and ter· 

rttle<! earthQuake victims; or 

to ··help find medical care1 t!nd ·lost loved ones, ana 

restore some semblance of 

order? ' . ' 

. Capital punishment for 

henidus crin1na1s ·does proAPPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 

hfb!t their _ · ever . cornrnltlng 

another crime, and, thereby, 

Is a · deterrent to crime. 

When . "what It" becomes 

reality, it's too late to right ·a wrong. 

; HERBERT A. HANSEN 

Sappington 

DOD 

. The front page of the St. 

Ll1uis Stin alludes to the 

problem of · a ·. possible 

$10,000,000,000 · price tlg 

for the recent earthquake In 

Calftomla. Not -a problem! 

Simply have any ·and all 

loans · made through ··our :well-managed and well-ri!gu.. 

lated · Savings and Loan 

Associations. That way It 

won't cost us (the private 

citizens) any moner.. 

And please don t tell me 

this won't work. I believe It 

!las been done before and 

done before .. and . done 

before... · 

JOHN F. BERNOSKY JR. 

Maryland Heights 

10-25-89 

St. Louis Sun 

10-27-89 

St. Louis Sun 

Reprinted by permission 

of the Associated Press 

71 

More jolts in store .Odds favor·future_quakes,.experts say 

By LEE SIEGEL 

Auoc:llled Pms 

LOS ANGELES - A repeat of 

the great San Francisco earth· 

quake-of 1906 Is unllkely !or 

decades, scientists say. But there Is a 50 percent 

chance within 30 years of anoth· er quake as strong as last week's · 

- only closer to the city and 

much more deadly . 

Chances are even better - 60 

percent - · that · the next catastrophic quake, a b!g one mea" 

suring 7.5 to 8.3, 'will occur by 

2018 on the San Andreas fault in 

Southern California. · 

"Everyliody who lives in Cal~ lfomla should be ready !or an earthquake at any time, and that means tomorrow," sald Don 

Anderson, director of the Callfornla Institute of Technology's seJ.s. 

mological laboratory. "Just 

because someone says there Is a 30 percent probability of a big 

earthquake in the next 30 years 

doesn't mean It won't happen tomorrow." 

Probabilities for quakes that 

could k!ll thousands of people in 

Callfomla were IJsted in a 1988 

U.S. Geological Survey report 

and remain unchanged by the 

Oct. 1 7 quake that claimed at least 63 lives in the San Francis- co Ba: . ea, sald USGS geophys- icist J!J, Dieterich. 

Dieterich Is the lead author of 

the study, which represented a consensus of leading scientists. The report predicted a 30 per· cent chance by 2018 for a mag. 

nitude-6.5 quake on the segment 

of the San Andreas that caused 

last week's quake. The jolt mea- sured 7.1, suggesting the fore- cast was conservative. "The chance of another 

destructive or . more destructive 

earthquake in the Bay area Is 

still high, and the .chances in 

..SOuthern Callfomla are even higher," sald Cal Tech geologist 

Kerry Sleh. A repeat of the 1906 San 

Andreas Fault quake - which 

measured 8.3 and ldlled at least 

2,500 people, according to recent studies - Is unlllcely for 

another 100 to 200 • years, Dieterich said. But the report !ore- cast 50.50 odds !or a magn!-

tude-7 ms,jor quake in the Bay 

area by 2018. . . · · . . ' 

In Washington, President BuSh 

signed legislation Thursday . to provide quake-strlclcen - areas ~: of 

. Northern Callfomla $2.85 billion 

in emergency relief assistance ~ ": · 
72 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO. EARTHQUAKE 

10-31-89 

Los Angeles Times 

Copyright, 1989. 

Reprinted by permission 

S.F. Disaster Jolts Officials in Memphis 

Into Preparing for Their Own Big One 

• Earthquakes: Experts 

warn that a major temblor 

i~ on the way. But a fight 

looms over new building 

code requirements. 

By JAMES RISEN TIMES STAFF WRITER 

· MEMPHIS, Tenn.-If The King 

ever does show up back here in his 

hometown. he'd better be careful. 

<:;raceland hasn't been earlhquakep~oofed. 

· But Elvis Presley's old man- -sion-the-biggest tourist attraction 

in this city along the Mississippi 

River-is hardly alone. 

~ Nothing else in Memphis is 

r¢ady for the Big One either, even 

though this city lies close to the 

site of the most powerful earthquake in American history and sits 

a,Jmost directly atop one of the 

biggest earthquake fault lines in 

the United States. 

! Memphis- like most cities in the 

central United States-has no 

l>uilding code requirements to 

guard against earthquakes. Developers in Memphis have been sueccssfully fighting such "seismic" 

building code requirements for 

years, arguing that they would add 

huge costs to new construction 

while protecting against a threat of 

Y.(hich most here are only dimly aware. 

Only now, in the wake of the 

World Series quake in San Francisco, has the seismic code issue 

tJeen revived. After inspecting the 

damage to the Bay Area, Memphis 

Mayor Richard Hackett returned 

home and announced he would 

pl1sh a long-delayed seismic code 

into law by the end of the year. 

'~J t'll be a tough one to sell, it : won't be politically popular," 

Hackett spokesman Ray Pohlman 

admitted. 

• " It's never been a hot issue 

before. But the San Francisco 

qllake is forcing it to be a big issue 

n~w " 

The new code may come just in 

time, earthquake experts here say. 

: A serious earthquake in Memphis is on the way-and soon- s~ismologists warn. 

• In fact, Memphis is at greater 

risk of suffering a major earthquake sometime in the next few 

years than any other urban area in 

the eastern half of . the United 

S~tes. There is a 40% to 63% 

probability that a quake of at least 

6..0 magnitude will hit Memphis 

,!!thin the next 15 years, ·according 

t9 .Arch, JohJ1Slqn, . d\rector . of the 

Loe_ An_seles T-met 

Oenter for Earthquake I;l.esearch at 

Memphis State University. 

:Yet, today, the Ci~ is almost 

c(>mpletely unprepar~ f~r it, "Our 

risk to, t\e9ple •lind; buildmgs.from 

iilnarthQ'tl'aRe-;ig Jitih ; :;.;.because 

~e·v~ tak~tl; :\>trtllally ;·ho : precau -·· 

t{>ns llere.':.'Jclhiiston warned. He 

added that ·most· public schools in 

tbe city are built of "old, unreinf¢rced masonry, which engineers 

will tell ·you Is ·the worst· possible 

cbnstruction In the event ·or an 

earthquake. It :we·:had · a. quake 

d~ring the school day, many of our 

casualties would be children,'' ' 

;; The complacency about earthQ.\Jakes In 'Memphis reflects a broader sense among most Ameri -

cans that only Californians need 

worry about quakes. But, although 

California rightly grabs the headlines as America's earthquake capital, other regions of the nation are 

hardly immune. 

"If you asked people in Memphis 

where earthquakes occur, they 

would say California," noted Harvey Ryland, executive director of 

the Memphis-based Central States 

Earthquake Consortium, which 

was formed in 1983 to increase 

awareness among builders and residents in seven central slates of the 

threat from earthquakes. "Most of 

them don't know fearthquakesl 

can happen right here in their own 

back yards. " 

Indeed, the most powerful earth -

quakes ever lo hit the continental 

United Stales happened here in th~ 

Mississippi River Valley , along 

what seismologists have dubbed 

the New Madrid ~' ull. 

Three quakes, with an epicenter 

ncar the small fanning town of 

New Madrid, Mo .. about 70 miles 

north of Memphis on the Mississippi River. hit in rapid succession 

during the winter of 1811-181 2 

with more fury than the 1006 

quake that devastated San ~'rancisco. 

The quakes-estimated to have 

been bel ween 8.6 and 8.9 magnitude-packed such force that they 

briefly reversed the course of the 

Mississippi, created a major new 

lake that still exists, rang church 

bells in Boston and knocked down 

construction scaffolding arou nd 

the Capitol in Washington. The 

tremors could be fell over I million 

square miles. 

"All nature seemed running into 

chaos," recalled one Frenchmen 

who was traveling down the Mississippi when the first earthquake 

hit in December. Ifill. Throughout 

the winter in New Madrid. the 

ground shook incessantly. "like the 

flcsli-of ;i beef just killed," wrote 

one resident. 

But the area was so sparsely 

populated then that only a few 

people were killed-mostly passengers on small boats swallowed 

up by the raging river-and the 

region hasn't been hit by a compa. 

rable quake since. 

So, although less severe quakes, 

at 5.0 or below, occur regularlyabout 200 barely detectable quakes 

hit along the New Madrid Faull 

each year- few people in the 

Memphis area take the threat of a 

major quake seriously. 

"There's no memory of a big 

quake here. that's the problem," said Jeff Crenshaw, director 

of the Memphis-Shelby County 

Emergency Management Agency. 

"Our problem is that we don't have 

them often enough for people to 

know what to do." 

As a result, a quake in Memphis 

like the one that recently hit the 

Bay Area could lead to a greater 

loss of life, because people don't 

know what to do and buildings 

haven't been reinforced. In addition. the damage here would extend over a larger region. because 

of the Mississippi River Valley's 

sofl soil. which transmits seismic 

energy more easily than docs the 

thick rock just below the surface in 

California. 

The San Francisco quake has led 

political leaders here lo start lak -

ing earthquake warnings seriously. 

~~arlicr this week . Hcp. llarold E. 

Ford ( 0-Tenn.} wrote a letter to 

Mayor llackcll calling for a hall in 

the construction of the "Great 

American Pyramid," Memphis' 

huge new pyramid -shaped sports 

complex. until il can be earthquake-proofed. . "It's tragic. bulthe San Francisco quake has done more lo make 

people aware of the threat than 

anything else, " Crenshaw observed. "Now, I'm gelling calls 

from the City Council members 

saying they want to support us" in 

earthquake rrcparations. 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 73 

11-27-89 

Associated Press 

Wire Service 

Reprinted by permission 

of the Associated Press 

COLUMBIA, Mo. (AP}-A 

New Mexico climatologist said 

earthquakes will rattle the New 

Madrid Fault in December 

1990. 

By Michael Kelley 

The Commercial Appeal 

11-28-89 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission of the Commercial Appeal 

earthquake." · Farm and Industrial Equipment The research, though, is "not Institute in Chicago. 

very satisfying," he said. "For Howell said he was present 

every paper that says 'Yes, there when Dr. Browning mrprised 

is a statistical correlation,' his audience by saying there 

there's a paper that's found no would be a major quake in 

correlation." Northern California within 

The chairman of a panel of three days of Oct. 16. The earthgeologists established to evalu- quake occurred on Oct. 17. 

ate earthquake predictions was. His projections on the New Maless generous. "I wouldn't worry drid Fault, he said, were based 

too much about it, or put any on a 179-year cycle of "tidal 

stock in it," said Dr. Thomas Mel- forces" last felt by the fault in 

A University of Missouri Mark the date on your calen- villy at the University of Califor- 1811. On Dec. 3 of next year. he 

Professor was skeptical about dar, but don't panic, says a scien- nia-Berkeley. said, the "highest vector sum tist who correctly predicted Oc- "The tides happen twice a day, high tidal force in 27 years" will 

the prediction given b:y lben tober's San Francisco earth- and they get big every month occur. 

Browning in a telephone inter- quake: the New Madrid fault and every spring and fall. They "The configuration will be the 

could be hit by a serious swarm go on for years and years. same as it was the year the origi- view with the Columbia (Mo.) ·of tremors on Dec. 3, 1990. There's no correlation," he said. nal (1811) earthquake went off." 

Dail:y TribWle on Saturday. Dr.- lbe~ Brow~ing, ~ ~ew Neither Johnston nQr Mclvilly Browning said he holds a doc- . , Mexico climatologist, said m· a had. heard of Browning before, torate in physiology from the 

Brownmg, of the commo- 'telephone interview Monday although some publicity fol- University of Texas, where he 

dities fmn Paine Webber Inc., he's not flatly predicting a major lowed his San Francisco predic- received his bachelor's degree 

"d . th . . c.. New Madrid earthquake. tion. 52 years ago in physics and 

sat m e mtervtew uom If the geological conditions Tne prediction was made dur- math. 

Albuquerque, N.M., that Dec. are right, though, he said,_ t_idal ing ,a meeting before abO'Ut 450 Although "I really don't want 

3, 1990, is the da:y the New ~~rt~: sC:~a:~~ :~:ecE~fJt~n! ~~~~~~;~~n~~:~uotf;le~n~~~·F~a~~ ~~-~~~~or~·~~\~~:r;:~~~.t~,.;·!~~ Madrid Fault, which nms "triggering force" for a major se- cisco, just eight days before .the one of those people who. 

through part of southeast Mis- ries C!f earthquak~ il;l the New earthquake, according to Rtch- wouldn't go near Mt. St. Helens . . . Madnd zone, which IS along a ard Howell, a spokesman for the before it eruJ>ted." 

soun, Will be hit b:y the quakes., line that runs from a point south .--------------------------- He based the projection on a of. St. Louis to a point abo~t 35 , . ., , miles northwest of Memphis. 179-:year c:ycle of 'hdal forces. The last time major earthBrowning said that in 1985 quakes occurred along the New 

h Madrid fault, in 1811 and 1812, e forecast the earthquake that the Mississippi River changed 

hit San Francisco last Oct. 17, its course. 

and missed it b:y onl:y one da:y Experts s.ay a 20th Century d~s- . turbance m the New Madnd 

The last series of major· zone could cause catastrophic 

earthquakes on the New Mad- damage from tl_1e Missouri Boot- . . heel to Memphis. nd Fault occurred m 1811-12, "A triggering force is not an 

which Browning said was the eart~quake for~e any more than 

1 "high 1 , f "dal c. pulling the tngger on a gun ast c:yc e o ti 10rces makes the gun go off," he said. 

in that area. Tidal forces are "The gun goes off only if it's 

1 . loaded. 1 don't know whether re ated to abgnments ofthe SWl (the New Madrid Fault) is loadand moon, he said. ed or not, but the trigger will be . . pulled." Ernest KWlg, a Uruvers1ty Browning warns of upcoming 

of Missouri-Columbia profes- earthquakes, volcanoes and othf tm b · · er phenomena as a sort of side- sor o. a osp enc s:c1ence, was line to his primary business of 

skeptical of Brownmg's asser-. developing long-range weather 

tions saying the tidal-force I 'forec~sts for·: fa.rm ··equipment ' . manufacturers, a· brokerage theory has not been proven m firm and 9ther clients. 

scientific studies. Dr. Arch Johnston, director of 

the Center for Earthquake ReIt's not Wlusual for organi- search and Information at Memzations such as stock broker- pliis State University, said there 

is some scientific research that 

supports the tidal forces theory but just as much research that 

ages and insurance companies 

to focus research on such 

"exotic things," Km1g said. disproves it. . "The normal tidal forces of the sun and moon induce periodic 

low-level stresses in the earth," 

he said. 

"A lot of people have looked at 

this to determine ... if the fault 

is sitting there ready to go and 

gets a little nudge (from tidal . forces) that actually triggers the 

12-12-89 

. Blytheville (Ark.) Courier News. 

Reprinted by permission of the Associated Press 

Climatologist says New Madfid 

quake could happen n.ext year 

OSAGE BEACH, Mo. (AP) 

- A scientist says history and a little math show that the New 

Madrid Zone, where 19thcentury .. earthq11akes made. the 

Mississippi River· flow. 

backwards, could be the center 

of a major quake in less than a year. 

Iben Browning delivered his 

prediction during a meeting of 

. farm leaders Tuesday, a day 

aftel' . public;-safety . officials 

from seven states· discussed 

earthquake preparedness in 

Memphis, Tenn. On Wednesday, the Missouri Legislature 

begins bearings at Cape 

Girardeau, Mo., on proposals to 

curb earthquake damage. · 

Researchers have predicted 

that a major· earthquake - .· 

rivaling the Oct. 17 tremors in 

northern California - has a 1-

in-3 chance of happening along . the ,New :Madrid Zone during 

the . nex.t-. decade. The. ,probabilities &oar above 90 percent 

during the next ~If-century. 

Browning,·\,& climatologist 

from Albuquerque, N.M.; offers 

a specific. date for the intense 

seismic activity if con~tjo~ 

are right: Dec. 3, 1990. .: · · · 

The correct conditions, .which 

Browning told the Missouri 

Governor's ·Conference on Agriculture are like a ·"loaded 

gun," would be. a . massive 

amount ~of pent-up energy 

beneath the earth's surface. 

"Will it go off? Who knows? If 

you pull the trigger on a gun it 

goes off .only if it's -loaded. J 

dont know if it's loaded. Certainly the opportunity exists if 

it's loaded,~· Browning said. 

''There·· has to be energy 

there for it. You can't get 

energy from the triggering 

forces. You get energy from 

geologicalfor~es" he said. ·~ · 

Other factors are tidal forces, 

which Browning says move in 

179-year ··cycles - meaning 
74 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

12-12-89 

Blytheville (Ark.) 

Courier News 

(Continued) 

earthquakes: which rattled the 

New Madrid Zone starting in 

December 1811 could shake 

again in December 1990. · 

"We're back in the same triggering force configuration 

as of Dec:.·3.of next year.as we .. 

were w!Ien the.. : grea~ . New 3~. 

Madrid . quake. w~nF:off, ~'.~:~: 

Browning ~ sa~d · .oN' ~e- tidal · forces. ·. :-·. ~ ·:·;):<::: .· ·· _. 

While ·Browning ''~says., his·-~, 

target date for ,the :next·New . 

Madrid· earthquake ·.Js.-i ten~~~:. 

tative, he claims to have miss-.' 

ed by one .. day predjcting ;th~.­

recent California quake. by us< ing the.· ·.~ame-.:co~putati~~~~~: 

Browning;: a· cllinatolo~t:;.(ot~; 

15 years'.who ha(v¢tten ~~~> 

books and issues· a tn~~l~tt~J: . 

said he first publi.~4~Q/~~f:i,; 

predictions in 1985. ':,;·r:{)~ ;:~f'::t~~~- . · The October ea.J;'thqua}te;!.~;~_ 

measuring'.-7 .1 . on . the:) Richtet;~~ · scale, caused' 67 dea'ths::7and {';; 

more than $7 billion in damage. · 

Several of the~.·l811:.181-2 ... New :. 

Madrid quakes-~..,....: occuring :a ! · 

century before' development of ~­

the Richter scale- would have 

surpassed an 8.8 measurep~ent 

of intensity, researchers: con-· · tend ···· ·· ;•:.·: ·~·-' · · -~~t. ·;·_,.·-

Se~era(~ajor. cities :u¢ .alorig~:~: the New'·Madrid)Zone·:from•-:.: 

Cairo··: IlL :·to Ma.rked_;·Tre(;t4: 

Ark;/: 'enc~mpa~ing'~ ~parts·~ ·of it. 

the sta.tes of Arka~s;'lllinoiS; .... 

Indiana', K~ntucky, .. ~iss~P.:~.· pi, Misso.un and Tennessee. ·At;/ 

Memphis, . the Central United··'· 

~tates Earthquake ·eonsorpq~IJ}t: 

was told that those states'are<· 

ill-prepared·. to deal· with''. the·:; 

devastation . of. -strong'· earth~ : 9uakes. · ·; · · ·. "· ·.·;· ' 

The state legislative hearing 

was called after lawmakers express~ concern thatcsafety 

codes for buildings, bridges and 

highw~ys were not adequate in - case ,of ::an earthquake.' One:, · geophysicist· at the~- Memphis·,,· 

meeting compared· existing ;: 

knowledge" about the New 1'"· 

Madrid · Zone to what 'was~-:-· 

known about the San-: Andreas· ( · 

Fault in California in l906. . 

There were .thousa~~ ~f ~~~;­ thquakes in.· the :·19tl);-eentury:. 

New . , Madrid quake, ·. tremors 

from which reportedly knocked . ::-

down townspeople in _Cincinnati. 

and Nashville, Tenn.; and rang , church bells in Boston and Baltimore. 

1-27-90 

St. Louis Sun 

Experts: Quake not a threat 

By PEGGY FORD 

St. Loall ... COITIIpOIIdlal 

ST. LOUIS -· An earthquake tit the st. 

Louis area that 'collapses houses or destroys 

buildings is unlikely within the next 20 years, 

and the violent New Madrid earthquakes of 

1811-12 Wcely won't recur for hundreds of 

years, seismology experts said Friday. 

"(St. Louis) Ia not tn Imminent danger," 

sald Paul. C. Thenhaus, a research geol= wttW the4J.Sr..Geologlcal Survey. "Consid 

the average recurrence (of an earthquake) Js 

800 to 1,000 years, the probablllty Js quite 

8mall.". 

to occur tomorrow. It's not f.>lng to destroy 

the dtiY and every house tn lt. ~ - • 

Hemnann Called a recent· prediction by a 

New Menco meteorologist that a ~r earthquake would hit the area on Dec. 3 "'alannJst 

and irresponsible." · He guessed that tornadoes pose a greater 

threat to St. Louis residents than a qtiike. 

However, Herrmann said, tremors that 

shake the metropolitan are& are UkeJ:y. 

"There· Is a quake problem, so let's do 

something to guarantee that structures going. 

up can withstand the earthquake · that Is 

expected during the Ufe of . the bulldlng," 

Hemnann said. . . In the .St. Louis area, earthquakes pose the 

In front of an audience of 170 at the Sher- greatest danger to occupants of older, mulaton St. Louis Hotel, experts from the central ti-eto=brick omce and apartment bulldlngs. 

United States gathered to present data on The e to most homes tn the area will 

reatonal quakes and to discuss precautions. be from o~. · cr.I'm not an alannJst and am opposed to "Consider what would fall over If the house 

the a1ann1st rhetoric," said Dr. Ro~ Herr- moved horlzontally,"-Hermwm said. ,.. ......... mann, St. Louts Untvemt.y's professor or geo- He dld not recommend bltndly uu.~"'6 

physics. "(A serious earthquake) Is not gotng . earthqualce tnsur.nce . 

1-30-90 

Paducah (Ky.) Sun 

Reprinted by permission 

Mark your calendar 

New·Mexico;climatologist sets Ne-w Madrid quake for Dec. 3 

By B1lJ.. BARTLEMAN 

Sun StaH Writer . - .. 

If the New Madrid Fault is loaded for a major earthquake, it will erupt on Dec. :3, ·according to 

climatologist Iben Browning. :· .· The Albuquerque, N.M., scientist said. his 

prediction is · based on history an~ "a little 

math." · 

He said he is using the same infonnation he 

used to predict - within· one . day - the 

earthquake that rocked northern California on Oct.1~ .· .. 

Scientists believe· one of the triggering forces 

of an earthquake is the tidal force. that causes 

high and low tides in the ocean. . . The strength of tidal forces _;. detennined by 

the alignment of the earth, moon and sun - causes a "pull" on the land the same as the pull 

on the seas. ' 

Browning said that on Dec. 3, 1990, the tidal 

forces that affect the New Madrid Fault will be 

at tlieir highest level since 1964 and equal to 'the 

tidal forces· that existed· in 1811 when a series of 

enormous earthquakes caused the Mississippi River to flow backward. · An · earthquake is caused when pressure -is 

released between two faults in the earth. 

Browning said that if· sufficient pressure is. 

built up in the New Madrid Fault, the strength of . the tidal. forces on Dec. 3 could "pull" enm.~.gh to 

cause the pressure to be released. . "It's like a gun," Browning said. "If it's 

loaded and you pull the trigger, it'll go off. 

"If it's not loaded, it won't. go off." 

Browning $aid he has ·made no calculations to 

deteimine how much pressure is built up in tile 

New · :M:adrid ~ault, wbich rims from Cairo· in 

southern lllinois to Mark~ Tree, Ark. 

Scientists have predicted that preSsure . is 

building, and a 1-in-3 chance exists for a major 

earthquake by the end of the century, and a 90 

percent chance of a major earthquake. during the 

first half of the 21~ century. . · 

. The earthquakes . of 1811-12 . on the New 

Madrid Fault are believed to be the strongest on 

record. Although· no measurement existed then, 

the quakes are believed to have surpassed a 

measurement of 8.8 on the modern Richter scale. 

The California earthquake last October measured 7.1 and caused more than $7 billion in 

damage.· · 

Browning said he predicted the earthquake 

within a day, using tidal data. 

Browning was a featured speaker at last 

month's meeting of public safety officials from 

the seven states which would be affected by a 

New Madrid earthquake .. 

. It was at that meeting that he firsf,discussed 

the possibility of a Dec. 3 earthquake. 

States directly affected are parts of Kentucky, lllinois, Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, 

Arkansas. and Mississippi. 
2-4-90 

St. Louis Sun 

Earthquake 

preparedness 

sorely lacking 

An article titled "Experts: 

Quake not a threat" appeared 

Jan. 27 in the Sun. I would 

like to clarify what appears 

to be a terrible mlsunderstandln8. 

The article begins by stating that an earthquake causing severe architectural damage is "unlllcely within the 

next 20 years." 

It is widely accepted by 

the sclentlftc community that 

chances o! a 7.1 magnitude 

quake are 33 percent within 

that time frame. This is the same ''body wave magnitude'' 

that swept through California on Oct. 17, 1989. 

What most readers don't 

understand is that the geologic makeup o! the Mississtppi 

Valley is closer to that of 

Mexico City and Armenia, 

which recently experienced 

devastating earthquakes of 

s1m.llar "magnitude. ' 

Because of the subsoil 

conditions in these areas, and 

in southeastern Missouri, an earthquake wave is capable 

of moving hundreds of mlles 

without losing much energy. 

However, severe damage 

that occurred 1n these areas was due not only to geologic 

conditions, but lack of preparedness, far unlike that 

exhibited in California. 

St. Louis and surrounding 

conunU!Uties are decades 

behind in earthquake preparedness. If you combine 

the lack of seismic integrity 

in most of the area's buildings with the publlc's com- placency toward preparedness, you have a situation 

that doesn't jlbe with your 

article's headline. 

TIM WAGNER 

St. Louis County 

APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 75 

2-5-90 

St. Louis Sun 

GUEST COLUMN 

A major earthquake would 

render city, state helpless 

M

issouri or the 

City of St. 

· Louis can take 

no comfort 

that the Oct. 17 Bay 

area earthquake 

casualties were only 

66 and only $10 btllion in damages. 

--The earthquake FRED 

affected on1y seven- WILLIAMScounties. But scien- tists ten· us that an ...._ _____ ,. 

earthquake will occur in Missouri. 

I -think an earthquake of the same 

magnitude (7 .1) or greater along the 

New Madrid Fault will be far more 

devastating than the Bay Area quake. 

It has been 177 years since Missouri 

has had a major earthquake. Therefore, 

the intensity of the next will be greater. 

A great Missouri earthquake , will 

affect 21 states and some 15 mllllon 

people, according to federal studies. 

There are 180,000 highly vulnerable 

residential structures in_ St. Louis city 

and county classed · as unreinforced 

masonry buildings. 

Life-lines such as gas, water, electric 

and telephone will be severely damaged. 

The flre department will not be able 

to respond to all the frres. 

Tough decisions will have · to be 

made by nre personnel about whether 

to responp to a single-family frre or to .. a hotel flre that has 400 or 500 people 

trapped. Looting will be widespread. . .If a large number of casualties 

occur, the city may have to_ initiate 

temporary mass burials. 

The ~ could be isolated for several 

days before outside help a.nives if the 

earthquake. is a magnitude of 7.1 · to 

8.3. 

In all probability, _the bridges to. the 

-east and -west--will be· in. the MisSouriand MissiSsippi Rivers. 

A substantial number of people will 

be left homeless. The present shelter 

•• A great Missouri 

earth(Juake will affect 21 

states afui some 15 million 

people, according to federal 

studies.-

___________________ ,, . :-~ ·cannot accommodate the need. 

Tent" dties ·will have to be established. 

There will be shortages of drugs, 

food and water. 

Law enforcement persormel will be 

taxed to a point of pain. The city will 

lack the necessary number of engineers needed to inspect all residential 

and commercial buildings to determine 

which are safe for habitation. 

Fred Williams is director of I he 

city Emergency Manc.gement Agency. 
76 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

2-9-90 

St. Louis Sun 

Quake 

column 

lacking 

. ·Fred Wllllams, head of the 

St. Louis Emergency Management Agency, really knows 

his earthquakes. His guest 

_column_ on_Feb.-5-llsted-all 

lmown effects. I just have a couple of questions. 

Fred,· what are you going 

to rlo ·when the New M.arlrld 

fault tmWinds under us? Your 

column didn't ·give us any 

clues. Do you have any? 

Would" . you share them 

with us? 

BOB WELCH 

~st Louis 

Editor's note: The column 

was excerpted from a 

detailed 1Y1]J01"t including 

safety measures to take. The 

Sun has printed them. Yqu can contact Williams at the 

City ETTU:Jr(Jency Management Agency, 1315 Chestnut 

St., St. Louis, Mo. 63103 .. Or 

call 622-3501. 

2-14-90 

St. Louis Sun 

Quake stori~s :rniS,l~~ding; 'd b. '.tt\···· . ,, __ . ..: .. t·•:'·:_,.·,:~S;:·•i·~·:·.:·,~:,(,::~·:·· .. ··,~ 

we· ···:· . e, . -~:r~::g~. --_·:pr~p-~~u The Jan. 27' &m h~··:. i_·,~~.-~::_::: _·;:-;:·· .'.-:~::.·:~;;:,.•,:··:~_-_-.::,.;, __ in_>thJ __ ~d~tury, Missouri 

J.J.ne .(''Experts: Quake not a>'-'::·, ers of .the Sun.~-'.''.~ ~er(fortunate to have 

threat.') md . ·811Qsequent . de could -very well be left ·been · spared· em-thquakes 

article on the recent earth-· with the ml.sta.ken impre&- ·· such as the .1895 quake of 

quake hazard reduction sfon that any serious earth- · 6.3 _ magnitude nenr 

worbhop in St. Lo\M were quake WB8 not lllcely · to Charleston, Mo. · 

misleading. • happen . along the NC'W' But we cannot nllow ~ 

The ·New Madrid earth- . Madrid fault for scvernl period of relative sel.srn1c 

quakes of 1811-1812, esti- hundred years. calm to lull us into bellevrn.nted to have magn1tudes The predlcted probability 1ng. that destructive earthof 8.1 to 8.3, were the or an earthqualce. of 6.3 . quakes can't happen here 

greatetrt recorded on the rnagnltude along tile New within tile next few years. 

North America continent. Madrid fault dlllin8 ·the· Preparedness kept the 

A quake of 8lmllar mag- next 15 years IUil8 from 40 , damage of the recent Callnltude today would result . percent to 60 percent and Cornia earthquake from 

in almost total destruction 86 percent to 97 percent being any worse than it 

along th1s fuult and would d~ the next 50 years. was. Missouri and other 

be a catastrophe unparnl- · A 8.3 earthqunke would states along the New 

lelcd in American history. not level . St. Loui~ but Madrid fault con learn from 

The seismology expe:rt! would likely cause d.nmage t.hD.t experience. 

at the workBhop stated that to masonry structures, a quake like those of ·roads and bridges, and pos--

1811-1812 could be expec- sibly result in h\Jurles or 

ted to recur. every 800 to deaths. 

in the bay area, killing 67 people. 

JAMES H. 

\VILLIAMS, Ph.D. 

Director, State Geologist 

6-20-90, Jonesboro (Ark.) Sun 

Reprinted by permission of the Associated Press 

· He also projected an earthquake Browning said of communities 

in California's San Fernando Val- along the New Madrid fault. "Pooley in 1971 that measu('ed 6.5 on the pie haven't been paying attention." . 

Ri~te~ acale and;~eC.\75 people, a . Garri.ss said. there may be WB;rn1Sl7~ .killet eart®Uii.e jil Nicar.:. mg quivers m October, wh1ch 

agua, and the Mt. St. Helens volca- would help -communities realize Earthquake forecasts 

getting more reliabl-e 

By R.B. FALLSTROM 

Associated Press 

ST. LOUIS CAP)- A member of a team that is projecting a major 

earthquake in the Midwest Dec. 2 

or 3 says that forecasts of this sort 

are getting more and more reliable. 

"I would not be surprised if in 20 

years or so we can get to a point 

where we can treat earthquake 

warnings like hurricane warn-

.. s," Evelyn Browning Garriss of 

dia Park, N.M., said Tuesday. 

These are projections, not pr.edic- · s. 

; "If you want to make a prediction, you use tea Jeaves." 

The New Madrid fault system ex-

:ends 120 miles from about Charles--

:on. Mo., and Cairo, Dl., _through 

New Madrid and Caruthersville 

and down to Marked Tree, Ark. It 

crosses five state lines and cuts across the Mississippi River in 

three places. 

l Browning said that movement 

along the fault could be triggered 

t~en by the greatest peak of tidal 

forces in 60 years. His estimate was 

made five years ago, but it didn't 

come to light until after the San 

Francisco earthquake last 

October. ' 

1;lrowning has been developing 

qu1te a track record in the earthquake projecting business. 

nic eruption. that the danger is serious. 

The city of Carbondale, 111., lo-. "ltwouldbeoneofthebestthings 

cated along the New Madrid fault, that could happen," Garriss said. 

is taking the December projection! Browning and Garriss publish a seriously. Vacations have been monthly newsletter, "The Brownpostponed for some employees that· ing Newsletter," that deals with eliweek. · 'mate, geological events and their 

Browning, 72, is too Ul to travel ;impact on .society, Garriss said. 

so his daughter has spread words of Earlier in the year they projected 

hisworkat'speakingengagements.flooding for the Mississippi River 

At an appearance at the Mid-ibasin. They've also projected three 

America Regulatory Conference hurricanes to occur in the Gulf of 

Tuesday, she wore. aT-shirt embla· Mexico this year and, here's an 

zoned on the back with the words ;easy one, a 70 percent chance of a 

"Are You Ready For The Next heat wave in the Midwest in July 

One?" She received the shirt from and August. . 

the Center For Earthquake Studies· The earthquake danger i"s not just 

at Southe~st Missouri State iJni- on the New Madrid fault, according 

versity in Cape Girardeau. to Browning and Garriss. Other 

But m· . h 1 . areas at risk are Utah and Montamots as a w o e IS unpre- na and California 

pared for a quake a?d other areas Earthquake exp~rts in the Mid· 

::~n:r th~ fau~~ aren t really ready! west have said there is a SO·sO 

" • 

5 . e sa~ ·. chance of a quake measuring 6 3 on If Califo~rua IS a 10 on a scale of the Richter scale in the ne~t 10 

i Garriss' father, climatologist preparedness and Armenia a zero d 10 

lben Browning, used U.S. Naval 

Observatory calculations to determine that an earthquake was likely 

Jn the New Madrid Fault this De-

::ember. 

_ Last October, he told a meeting of 

corporate executives in San Francisco that the city could expect an earthquake within three days of 

Oct. 1.6. A quake measuring 7.1 on 

the Richter scale occurred Oct. 17 

mOat: of the New Madrid fault would years, an a p~rcent chance of a -h.alte..a 3 .. G . . ... quake measunng 7 .6. It may is zero:•; .• arnss said. Memohis escape a quake this December, but 

Her father agreed m· t 1 h the clock is running down. a e ep one "It' l'k 1. . interview Tuesday. .. s I.e IVI!'g ~n a bowl of Jell-

"They're ab 1 el 0, Garnss satd. I would at least 80 ut Y not ready," lie the china flat." 
Quake is 

taken very 

seriously 

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) -The 

State Emergency Management 

Agency is taking seriously one expert's projection that a major earth(iuake · wi1f hit the New Madrid 

Fault in December even though it 

probably won't happen, the agency's director said Thursday. 

Climatologist Iben Browning has 

said a major quake will hit the 

Midwestern fault on Dec. 2 or 3, a 

projection that has caused officials 

in Carbondale, m., to cancel. vacations that week. Browning eariier 

had projected the Loma Prieta 

quake that devastated San Francisco last October, a 1972 killer earthquake in Nicaragua and the volcanic eruption of Mt. St. Helens. 

An earthquake Thursday in 

northern Iran killed more than 

25,000 people and injured 

thousands, Iran's government 

announced. Scores of villages and 

towns were demolished. 

"I basically have taken the position we are not going to ignore this 

prediction," said Hauer, chairman 

of the Central United States Earthquake Consortium, which includes 

emergency management directors 

from Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, 

Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi. 

Hauer said that a major quake 

likely will not occur along the New 

Madrid fault those days and that he 

did not want to cause any panic. 

SEMA will no: cancel vacation 

plans for the first week of December, but he saiq-there are practical 

steps that might be taken. 

"If we have to schedule National 

Guard drills during the month of 

December, why not schedule them 

during that week?" Hauer said. 

Hauer also said the state must 

continue earthquake education 

programs and preparation of response plans so that when an earth· 

APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 77 

quake hits, people are ready to 

react correctly. 

"There's a possibility of a New 

Madrid earthquake. Most people 

accept it will happen. They just 

don't know when it will happen. I 

need to be as prepared tomorrow as 

I will be December 3rd this year 

and December 3rd next year," 

Hauer said. 

The New Madrid fault extends 

about 120 miles from near Cairo, 

Ill., through New Madrid, Mo., to 

Marked Tree, Ark. A series of major quakes that occurred along the 

fault in 1811-12 were among the 

most powerful in U.S. history, sci· 

entists have said. 

John Hill of the Indiana Geological Survey in Bloomington said 

Browning's projection for the New 

Madrid fault has been known for 

years and said the scientific com6-22-90 

Jonesboro (Ark.) Sun 

Reprinted by permission of the Associated Press 

munity, while skeptical of earthquake predictions, feels he may 

have come up with insights on determining when earthquakes will 

occur. 

"They are not illogical. They are 

certainly based. on common 

sense," he said. 

Unlike the California faults, the 

Midwest framework in which earthquakes occur is not well understood, Hill said. 

What is known is that a zone of 

weakness extends northward from 

New Madrid into the Wabash Valley, he said. 

Evansville and southwest Indiana would face the greatest damage in this state from a quake centered at New Madrid, Hill said. 

That area not only. is closest to New 

Madrid, but structures there are 

built upon unconsolidated sediment, rather than bedrock. The latter factor would amplify the energy 

of a quake as it shook a structure, 

he explained. 

Browning charts tidal patterns to 

project when earthquakes will 

occur along major faults. The 

added stress of tidal force along a 

fault may be the "last straw on the 

camel's back" when it comes to 

triggering a quake, said Hill, head 

of the publications and education 

section of the survey. 

Other, unknown forces may play 

more important roles, however, he 

added. 

Browning's projection of the 

Lorna Prieta earthquake caused interest among earthquake scientists, Hill said. "He may have hit on 

something of scientific significance, or it may have been coincidental," he cautioned. 

6-22-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Dec. 3 Called: Day To Lay Oishes.~J'~t By William Allen and atm_osptieric'sCierices at st, I.Ouls .. several countries", tncludl~g~~~!Ynl· .. · Of the Post-Dispatch StaH UnlversttY., said the many sclentlfl~ ted States an.cl Jap~n. - .~- ··.-~,,, •• u .. 

· studies of how tidal forces maylnflu- . Th~ New Madnd fault ~~,one of 

FoJ anyone ln the St. Louts reg!on ence earthquakes have failedto· show··~ several faults believed to be.P.rlmed wo~oerlng _whether _to take an early ·a link .. · · _ . ·i . . . . , tor a quake, .. . .. , . ·: ~··· . ..,~ .. : · Chr~stmas vacation 10 1990 •. c~~~~~r . "l don't think it [the prediction] Is·: . The fault runs for about 120 .. mlles 

tills. · - · · - · , ' .. something ·we should pay any atten·:: through part of southeastem_Mt~url Gravitat,tonal forces coming to a . r t 11 Mitchell sald 1 a telephone and southern Illinois. Scientists rate 

head toward the end of tllls year will ~~~~ ~~w. . .. _i!· •. :_~ . , , ._, ·.the chances of a damaging:.quiike of increas~ the chances of a maJor earth· rv. . "• · · ·.ll · ·• '· ! '· ' · Mi 6.0 or better on the Richter' scale' at 

quake in the nearby New Madrid · Garnss spoke th!s wee)' at the d· . about' 50 ercent b the·· end. of the 

fault, a climate forecasting consultant America _Regulat9J1. Confer~~ce at ··. decade ... ~ , : ; ; . ·, t ... { ~~:::_·:· .. ·, .. from New Mexico said Tuesday. the Marnott Pavilion Hotel. down,.. . u ·:' ··:! · ... : ~d· •. :, r.! ·,·;.· ·.; .. ; 

The alignment of the Earth, moon · town. She reported on quake ·_proJ.ec; :. : , mitiisS did not say ·how m\l~b the, 

and sun will create an unusually. tions m~~:de by her father, Iben Brow~· lmpending ·tidal, forces/.ra!.s~d ... th~· 

strong tidal pull that could trigger a tng, a sctentlst In Sandia Park, N.M.: chances of-a quak~. /: _ .. _ ,, · .; ............ ~ 

: quake- In the fault on Dec. 3, said Garrlss and 'Browning produce a , "We are now starting to h@Ve~rnore 

. Evelyn Browning Garrlss. ' newsletter for busine~ clients on cl.i· high tldes,·and one of the highest will 

"We're not saying there's definite!)! mate and geological events and thetr be on Dec. 3, 1990,'' Garriss said. Sev; 

going to be an earthquake on Dec. 3, Impact on the economy. In 1985; eral "precursor earthquake;s~ -~~uld 

but if the fault is ready to go, this will Browning predicted an earthquake on rumble in advance of the Dec. 3 even~ 

trigger it," Garriss said. "I would at Oct 17, 1989, in the general area . Gravitational forces affe~t not only 

least lay the china down flat" where th~ one actually oc~urred on the tides at sea but a~sQ. ~o-called 

But before you pack the ~ags and that ~ate In the San .fra~ctsco a~ea, . Earth tides, which are slight .~~.~nd 

put the dishes on the floor, consider Garnss ~ld~ . . ·' . ! , . · . falls of the land, . .' ;; .... ·\ _,! .~;:: ·:;. 

.that many scientists don't think . ~rowmng now estimates tllat the ·· "High tides ~rea triggert~g m.~~ha· 

there's any basis for predicting a Dec.· pull of the moon and sun will peak in nlsm," Garriss said. "They can pull 

3 quake. :northern latitudes of t~.e. globe In De,; . the trigger ~00 tim~. and lt th~ gun 

Brian Mitchell, chairman of earth cember, possibly trlggermg quak~ In. isn't loadedi;it doesn't go,~tt:J. 
78 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTIIQUAKE 

6-24-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission of The Commercial Appeal 

City, state tO participate 

in nationwide quake drill 

By K.aranja A. Ajanaku The Commercial Appeal 

Nashville Bureau 

NASHVILLE- At 10:15 a.m. on Oct. 10, a simulated earthquake 

measuring 6.8 on the Richter 

scale will trigger the first-ever 

nationwide test of the federal 

government's National Disaster 

Medical System. 

Don't panic. This will be only a test. 

:~ But some states have been en· couraged to participate by one ~dentist's suggestion that Dec. 3 

may be the day the New Madrid 

fault could be hit by a serious ~arm of tremors. (~Dr. lben Browning, a New l4_~xico climatologist, told The ~ommercial Appeal back in Noyeinber that Dec. 3, 1990 was the 

diiy;when tidal forces created by 

the positions of the sun and moon could be a "triggering 

force" for a major series of 

earthquakes in the New Madrid zone. The zone is along a line 

that runs from a point south of 

St. Louis to a point about 35 miles 

northwest of Memphis. 

The notoriety that Browning 

and his "tidal force projections" are garnering has become a source of some uneasiness 

among those who prepare for 

earthquakes for a living. 

Said Tom Durham of the Ten- nessee Emergency Management 

Agency, "It is the first time 

we've had to deal with some- thing like this ... You can imagine if there was an official prediction, just the complication of 

when to make the prediction public." 

As Browning put it, "A triggering force is not· an earthquake 

force any more than pulling the 

trigger on a gun makes the gun 

go· off. The gun goes off only if 

it's loaded. I don't know whether 

(tbe New Madrid Fault) is loaded or not, but the trigger wiJJ be 

pulled." 

Dr. Arch Johnston, director of 

tl:le Center for Earthquake Research and Information at Mem- p~is State University, said there 

is ·some research that supports ~e tidal forces theory but just as much research that disproves it. : ~ther way, Pete Darmohray, area manager for the National 

Disaster Medical System f!ffiMS). said ~rowning's projecp.ons about tidal-forces triggermg eanhquakes actually has en- ~o~~ged some states to participate m the October drill. 

:·-"A real big New Madrid fault 

exercise historically has not 

been conducted. A medical exer- cise of this volume has never been conducted in this country ~for~; You are looking at two ~U'sts, Darmohray said. . . The staged earthquake's epi- ~pter will be Marked Tree, 

Ark., about 35 miles northwest of 

Memphis. The fake disaster will in~lude 2,200 mock fatalities and 

32,000 other injuries. : During the four-day drill the 

Memphis and Shelby Co~nty Emez:gency Management Agen9'"will unveil its new $200 000 

mobile em~rgency center, a speCially eqUipped tractor-trailer. J:h~ exercise also will be the 1U'st trial run of a new agency ~stem designed to- track pa- tj.e_nts as efficiently as Federal ~press tracks packages. 

' Earthquake preparation along ~e New Madrid Faultline is r~ching a new level of intensi- ·~· ·Local, state and national offi- Cials are busy refining - and in some cases creating- different 

aspects of their own prepared- ness plans. While many of the 

earthquake preparation efforts were underway before the Lorna 

Prieta earthquake shocked 

Northern California last October, it's clear that the enormity of that catastrophe is helping 

quicken the pace. 

NDMS is the United States government's nationwide medical 

mutual aid system. It is supposed 

to provide for treating large 

numbers of patients who are injured in a major domestic disaster within the the continental 

United States or treat casualities 

from a conventional military 

conflict overseas. To get that job done, the U.S. 

departments of Health and Hu- man Services, Defense, Veterans 

Affairs and the Fe.d.eral Emergency Management Agency are cooperating. The NDMS program 

includes 75 federal coordinating 

centers and 1,563 private-sector 

hospital members with about 

105,000 beds. 

NDMS, which was set up during the administration off ormer president Ronald Reagan, has 

been planning the New Madrid 

exercise since April 1989. 

Memphis and Walnut Ridge, 

Ark., have been designated as re- gional · evacuation center~. 

where NDMS Will test its ability 

to gather and treat the injured 

and then send them off to hospitals aboard C130 transport 

planes. For the exercise, about 

1,300 people actually will be 

flown to 24 different cities. 

Darmohray said the NDMS 

program is supposed to supplement local and state efforts. 

Jeff Crenshaw, director of the 

Memphis and Shelby County 

Emergency Management Agency, said, "We had the choice. We 

could play or not play. We decided to play and test some particular things that really need it." 

For example, there will be the 

first test of a patient tracking 

system that uses bar-code technology. "It (the concept) is similar to Federal Express. If you can track a package around the 

country, why not a person?" 

The patient-tracking system was developed, in part, by what 

Crenshaw calls an individual 

mobilization augmentee (lMA). 

Basically, that's a person paid to 

help in some aspect of the local 

disaster plan. Other IMAs are helping convert a tractor-trailor 

into one of the most sophisticated mobile emergency centers in 

the country. The mobile center 

is designed to replace the center 

in City Hall. It is being paid for 

with about equal parts of private 

and public money. 

Crenshaw said Memphis and 

Shelby County also will test a family notification plan with the 

Chattanooga Emergency Management Agency. The plan is a lesson learned from California. 

That earthquake experience 

showed that people couldn't call 

Within an area code but could 

call outside. 

The NDMS earthquake drill comes as the state works to com- plete "a statewide, coordinated 

response and recovery plan" by 

next year. Durham said the state 

will have some limited participation in the NDMS excercise. 

Durham said state officials are about midway in developing 

their new plan. Sixteen teams involving various state departments and agencies are working on portions of the plan. 

A recently completed component of the plan is a building rating system to designate the con- dition of a building after an earthquake hits. 

The state already has the Ten- nessee Emergency Management 

Plan that provides a basic framework to help deal with disasters. 

But, Durham said, "Hurricane 

Hugo and the California earth." 

quake has made planning for a catastrophic disaster the top priority." 

Staff reporter Michael Kelley 

contributed to this story. 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 79 

7-1-90 

Central West End Journal (St. Louis) 

Reprinted by permission 

Study:·Earthqua·ke 

would,:hurt·City mo~t 1 . . .. · . . in the next century. By· Tracy Corr ngton - Deaths from_- such· a · quake 

States News Service could range from 260 to 1,020 in 

St. Louis County residents are the county and 1,200 to . 4,300 in 

better protected .than city resi- the city, depending on~'whether 

dents from the· effects of a· cata- the quake hit in the day or even- strophic earthquake, a new ing. The estimate does not 

earthquake preparedness study include casualties from resulting 

shows. floods or fires. 

Still, the study said the entire The FEMA report will help in 

St. Louis region would suffer planning future construction and 

devastation and is not prepared in urging local officials, busito cope with such a disaster. nesses and schools to .create 

The soon-to-be-released study earthquake response plans, said was conducted by the Federal Fred Williams, director of the 

Emergency Management Agen- city's Emergency Management 

cy, It said that casualties from office. 

an_ earthquake registering 7.1 on "It's pretty hai:ct to tell people 

the Richter scale __,. the magni- to get ready (since) it's been 179 

tude of last October's quake in years since the last -big quake," 

San Francisco - would be more Williams said. "But we're going 

than three times as high in the under the assumption of many 

.city than in the county. scientists that ·we will- have · "County residences are pre- another quake ~by- the year 2000." 

dominantly of wood frame con- Williams .was 1.referring to ·a struction which typically, is . not series .. of· earthquakes· along- the 

associated with damages severe New -Madrid Fault in late 1811 

enough to produce large num~ and early 1812. The most severe bers of deaths and serious inju- of the ·earthquakes, on Feb. 7, 

ries," the report said. 1812, caused the ground to move By comparison, the report not- 15 to 20 feet vertically and hori--

ed that about 80 percent of struc- zontally, caused the· Mississippi 

tures in the city "are of unrein- River to flow.-backward and ere- forced masonry construction," a ted Reelfoot Lake iri northwestsuch as brick. ern Tennessee. . , . FEMA's study is the first com- FEMA officials would not com- prehensive look at the potential ment on the study until .it was consequences of an earthquake officially released, which they 

in St. Louis, which is located said would occur "soon." over the New Madrid Fault. Existing emergency response 

The study .assesses the· dam- resources - -police- and fire. 

age of a hypothetical earthquake departments, hospitals and powcentered near Cape Girardeau, er companies . - cannot a de-

'Mo. The report said such an quately provide. for the .needs of 

event will probably happen with- quake victims,-:the-:Study-.said>: i· 

7-9-90 

San Jose Mercury News 

Reprinted by permission of the Associated Press 

No school Dec. 3-4: 

Quake is predicted 

WILSON, Ark. (AP)- A north-

~t Arkansas school district is 

taking a forecaster's prediction to 

lleart and bas tentatively planned an early December earthquake 

~reak. Mis . . . c t : The South SlSSlppl oun y 

School District No. 57 won't hold 

~lasses Dec. 3-4, if the school board ~pproves, in deference to climatologist Iben Browning's prediction of ~ major earthquake along the New 

tdadrid Fault during that time. 

i Browning claims to have accu- rately predicted .last fall's Northem Califomia earthquake within 

~day. He also $8ys be correctly 

predicted the 1971 :earthquake in 

California's San ~do V~ey, 

Ia deadly ~q •. in Nicaragua· ~ 1972 Bod eruption of Mount Sl 

elens volcano in 1980. 

South Mississippi County Super- ~t~eyBarton~dheis 

g Browning seriously. Browng bas predicted a quake for Dec. or 3, a Sunday and Monday. The · ct, north of Memphis, Tenn., 

OaDceled classes on Dec. 3 and . It~Will : U5e that time for staff 

eve10P.ment days mandated by ~e itite ... Department of Educapon, ·Barton ~d. 

! "Because we ·are a large rural 

Climatologist !ben 

Browning has 

forecast a major 

earthquake along 

the New Madrid 

Fault. 

area covering approximately 400 

square miles, transporting students 

would be a hardship if we should 

have an earthquake," Barton ~d. 

The New Madrid seismic zone stretches roughly from northeast 

Arkansas northward to southern Dlinois. 

Communities that make up the 

South Mississippi County School 

District are within 30 miles of 

Marked Tree, the center of a series 

of great earthquakes measuring as ~h as 8.5 on the Ricliter scale 

biit rocked the area during the 

Winter of 1811-12. U.S. Geological 

Siirvey scientists consider those 

the strongest series of quakes. in 

the nation's recorded history. 

7-11-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission of the Associated Press 

Arkansans, Guard prepare for quake The Associated Press 

The Arkansas National Guard 

has scheduled earthquake exer- cises for northeast Arkansas 

during the time period that a major earthquake is projected 

along the New Madrid fault. - . The projection by climatologist Iben Browning, who predicted last fall's San Francisco 

earthquake within a day, also 

has resulted in a planned clos-

'mg of a school district and a flurry _of sales of earthquake insur- ance. 

mBrowning, who declined a telephone interview· Tuesday, 

lias gathered data that indicate a !Pgh · likelihood of an earthqUake on Dec. 2 or Dec. 3 along the fault line, which extends 

.rQJighly from Marked Tree, Ark., 

U:ID>ugh New Madrid, Mo., to Cairo·UL· 

.:.:officfalS of the South Missis- ~_i>pi . County School District 

won't hold classes on Dec. 3-4, if ~e school board approves, in 

deference to Browning's projection. 

.;: ."The publicity has definitely 

iriade an impact," said Bill Geeslin of Pollard-Geeslin Insurance 

Ag¢ncy in Blytheville. He said 

PJ4uiries are up 10 percent to_ 20 

percent over last year. At least uled for Dec. 1-5 "because of the 

half of his customers haye_ the __ increased public awareness" re- coverage. "People are def1mtely suiting from the projection of 

asking about it," he said. the quake in Northeast ArkanAgent Bill Kenner of Blythe- sas. 

ville said publicity about the She said the exercises will 

projection and the vulnerability give the Arkansas Guard an opof Northeast Arkansas have portunity to test its earthquake 

made selling easy. He said about contingency plan. 

90 percent of his customers buy Seismologists have warned 

earthquake coverage after he that a major quake will occur mentions it. · along the New Madrid fault 

A National Guard spokesman sometime in the next few years. 

said the drill was planned befor~ Scientists say there is a 60 perBrowning's projection. MaJ. cent chance of a major earthCissy Lashbrook said Monday quake along the New Madrid 

that the earthquake exercises fault by the year 2000, and a 95 

are not the result of the projec- percent chance by 2035. 

tion. However, they were sched-
80 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

7-12-90 

Memphis Flyer 

Reprinted by permission 

Quake Prediction Sparks 

Reaction, Debate 

By Lucia Loeb 

December 3rd might seem like a long 

way down the road, but many area 

residents have already chosen tnat date 

for their winter vacation. Destinationanywhere outside of the city. 

Reactions are stemming from a 

projection made by New Mexico 

climatologist Dr. Ibcn Browning, who 

says that on December 3, 1990, tidal 

forces created by the positions of the sun 

and moon could be a triggering force for a 

major earthquake in the New Madrid 

fault zone, an area which includes 

Memphis. 

Browning's high tidal forces theory is 

based on earth tides, a phenomenon 

where stresses are generated by gravity 

within the earth, causing the earth to 

literally rise and fall. He contends that the 

maximum point of these earth tides 

triggers stress which is stored in a fault 

system, thus creating the possibility of an 

earthquake. 

In a recent phone interview, 

Browning emphasized that he was not 

actually predicting an earthquake for that 

date, rather he was projecting the 

triggering force. Comparing the New 

Madrid zone to a gun, Browning said that 

on December 3, 1990 the trigger ofthe 

gun would be pulled. "But it 1s not up to 

me to say whether the gun is loaded," he 

said. "That is up to local geologists." 

Browning then added, "I have, however, 

been told by Dr. Arch johnston of the 

Center for Earthquake Research and 

Information (CERI) at Memphis State 

University and Dr. David Stewart of the 

Earthquake Studies Center at the 

University of Missouri that the gun is 

loaded.'' 

Browning said his earth tides theory 

has allowed him to correclly project 

triggering forces in several other 

catastrophic natural disasters, including 

the October 17, 1989 earthquake in 

Northern California which measured 6.9 

on the Richter scale and caused an 

estimated $7 billion in damages; the 

February 9, 1971 San Fernando Valley 

earthquake which measured 6.6 on the 

Richter scale and caused an estimated $.1 

billion in damages; and the November 14, 

1985 eruption ofthe volcano Nevada del 

Ruiz in northern Colombia, which killed 

as many as 20,000 people. 

Asked ifhe lived in the Memphis 

area would he evacuate by December 3rd, 

Browning replied that he would definitely 

prepare himself. "My first principle is ~o 

avoid panic, because panic can kill more 

people than earthquakes can," he said. 

"The question here is not rf you're going 

to have an earthquake, because you will 

have one. The question is when you will 

have it. The trigger is going to be pulled 

on December 3rd, and though it does not. 

unquestionably follow that you will have 

an earthquake, I would certainly prepare 

myselfin all ways." 

Although Browning contends that his 

theory is a proven one, some don't give it 

much credibility. "There is no conclusive 

evidence to suggest there is a correlation 

between earth tides and earthquakes;' 

says Jill Stevens, manager of public 

education and information at CERI. 

"There have been some studies done that 

suggest that earth tides do trigger 

earthquakes, but there have been roughly 

an equivalent number of studies that have 

refuted the notion." 

Stevens notes studies conducted by 

scientists at St. Louis University which 

showed that Browning's theory was 

incorrect. "These scientists ran back 

through and looked at these tidal cycles in 

relation to past earthquakes in the New 

Madrid zone," she says. "They found that 

in the earthquakes of 1811 and 1812, only 

one occurred at the earth tide maximum. 

In fact, the other three occurred at or 

close to the earth tide minimum. 

Furthermore, two other significant 

earthquakes, one in 1843 and another in 

1895, also occurred very close to the earth 

tide minimum." 

Stevens says that none of Browning's 

theories regarding earthquakes and tidal 

forces have ever been noted in any 

reputable scientific publication. "He has 

made his livelihood from traveling around 

and talking to various business and 

corporate people, not the scientific 

community," she says. "No responsible 

scientist can make a prediction as to the 

date of an earthquake, and whether you 

use another name or not, essentially what 

he's saying is that there's going to be an 

earthquake here on December 3rd." 

As for a CERI forecast on a New 

J\1adrid zone earthquake, Stevens said 

they can only hypothesize. "What we 

believe is that there is the possibility that 

a magnitude·6.0 to 6.5 earthquake can be 

predicted," she said. "Based on what we 

know about recurrence rates, we feel 

there is a 40 to 63 pcrcem chance <lfthat 

earthquake happening in the next I 'i 

years, but that docs not mean that this 

-trigger is going to pop it off. There is no 

greater chance of an earthquake occurring 

on December 3rd than on any other day." 

• 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 81 

7-14-90 

St. Louis 

Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Sen. John Danforth (right), talking with Brian 

J. Mitchell (left), chairman of earth and atmospheric sciences at St. Louis University, 

Wes Paz/Post-Dispatch 

and Sean-Thomas Morrissey of the university's Geophysical Observatory. Danforth 

toured the center Friday. 

Prediction For Big Quake Attacked 

By William Allen Arch C. Johnston, director of the 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff Center for Earthquake Research 

. . and Information at Memphis State Earthqua~e experts m St. _Loms University. 

and Memphis debunked on Fnday a Because of "media attention and 

prediction that there's an unusually 

good chance of a severe earthquake 

in the New Madrid Fault in 

December. 

The prediction was made months 

ago by Iben Browning, a scientist in 

Sandia Park, N.M. Browning said 

that gravitational forces coming to a 

head on Dec. 3 would cause an unusually strong tidal pull that could 

trigger a quake. 

Since the prediction, at least one 

city, Carbondale, Ill., has canceled 

vacations by city employees for 

Dec. 3, a school district in Arkansas 

has canceled school for Dec. 3 and 

4, and the Missouri and Arkansas 

National Guards have scheduled 

quake-preparedness exercises from 

Dec. 1-5. 

But Browning's prediction meth· 

od was criticized in a memo re· 

leased Friday by Brian J. Mitchell, 

chairman of earth and atmospheric 

sciences at St. Louis University, and 

public concern" about the prediction, "we feel it is important to show 

that [Browning's method] is ineffective for predicting earthquakes," 

Mitchell and Johnston wrote. 

They said that a quake on Dec. 3 

was "no more likely than at any 

other time" and that the prediction 

"should not be considered 

seriously." 

But that "is no reason to be com· 

placent" about improving the region's readiness for a major earthquake, they said. 

The New Madrid Fault runs for 

about 120 miles through part of 

southeastern Missouri, Southern 

Illinois, Tennessee and Arkansas. 

Scientists rate the chances of a damaging quake of 6.0 or better on the 

Richter scale at about 50 percent by 

the end of the decade. 

Scientists have studied the relationship between earthquakes and 

tidal forces since 1936, with few 

finding any correlation, Mitchell 

and Johnston wrote. Tidal forces 

similar to those expected on Dec. 3 

have occurred many other times 

without triggering a quake, they 

said. 

The memo, dated June 29, was 

addressed to several state and federal emergency management officials and scientists. 

The scientists released the memo 

to reporters while Sen. John Danforth, R-Mo., toured the university's 

seismic data center Friday afternoon. Although not specifically referring to the prediction for Dec. 3, 

Danforth said: "It's important not to 

push the panic button, to be an 

alarmist. But I also think we should 

not be cavalier." 

He said a recent federal report 

that estimates hundreds of deaths 

and billions of dollars in damage in 

St. Louis from a severe New Madrid 

quake "indicates we are not as prepared as we should be." He recommended "a businesslike approach" 

to preparing for a quake. 
82 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRiD, MO, EARTIIQUAKE 

7-15-90 

Jackson (Miss.) Clarion-Ledger 

Reprinted by permission 

• An expert predicts 

major damage in 

Mississippi Dec. 2 or 3. 

By Leslie R. Mpra · Cljl[)etl"t..ea~r Staff Writer 

Set your earthquake alarm for 

December 2 or 3, 1990. 

WhQn.timeTUns out, the New 

Madrid fault - mid-America's 

sleeping giant - apparently will 

awaken and introduce itself. 

The fault's wintertime yawn is 

predicted to become a major earthquake, between magnitudes 6.3 and 

8.6 on the Richter scale. 

Th-e_timing i~,o based on research 

by U.S. ·scientisflben Browning, the 

same man whose work helped predict the volcanic eruption of Mount 

St. Helens in 1980 arid -within a 

day- last October's devastating 

7.1 quake in San Francisco. 

A major New Ma_dtid quake 

would throttle northwestern Mississippi, shake up Jackson and 

rumble south to the coast. Twentyone states are in this erratic, destructive path. · . 

Almost nobody is prepared. 

That's a challenge for Mississippi Emergency Management Agency 

(MEMA) Director Jim Maher. His 

agency must educate Mississippians, utility services and emergency 

personnel about the New Madrid 

threat. MEMA is encouraging us to 

prepare for a 7.6 quake. 

"Some people don't believe it," 

Maher said of the December prediction. "But you can't ignore it. You 

can't be complacent about it." 

The fault has kept rather quiet in 

our lifetimes. It has quakes almost 

daily, but seldom are they felt. 

But the fault once was famous. 

In the winter of 1811 and 1812, 

the New Madrid fault unleashed 

three major shocks. Its third jolt, an 

~n. is the third largest quake in recorded world history. (San Francisco's 1906 quake registered 8.3.) 

E? 

Iben Browning works with his 

daughter, climatologist Evelyn. 

Browning Garriss, in New Mexico. 

"They're planning for the worst," 

said Garriss, who often attends U.S. 

and regional New Madrid quake 

preparedness meetings. "Your 

·quake usually goes o_ff ip winte_r:" -

The 1811-12 quakes began in December. The Next New Madrid 

Quake: A Survival Guide for the 

Midwest descnbes that first shock; 

8.n 8.6, in Missouri: "Flashes oflighi 

suddenly burst from the earth, 

which shook violently, both horizontally and (15 to 20 feet high) vertically. In places, it rolled and undulated in waves . . . the earth burst 

open and spewed forth water, sand, 

rock and coal, often as high as the 

treetops ... black liquid· oozed from 

the earth ... to a depth of three feet. 

Large fissures opened, splitting the 

ground into hundreds of deep 

chasms, (some) seven feet wide and 

of untold depth." 

"It's not going to be the end of the 

world," Garriss said, "but its going 

to be pretty bad for Memphis." 

There is no way to predict the 

death toll of a 7.6 New Madrid 

quake. But one study, which covered six cities in the damage zone, 

said more than 3,000 people would 

die in those places alone. 

The main fault runs in a jagged 

line from Marked Tree, Ark., to New 

Madrid, Mo., to Cairo, Ill. 

Wendy Jordan works in a grocery 

store in Wails, a northwest Mississippi farming community 55 miles 

from the fault's southern tip. It's in 

the zone that would be hardest hit. 

She said they have no plans to 

close the store on Dec. 2 and 3. 

"But I'm already planning my vacation for the first few weeks of December: This had a lot to do with it. 

It's scary," Jordan, 35. She isn't prepared for an earthquake - nor does 

she know how to become prepared, 

she said. Jorda_n takes the fault 

"ve;:y seriously.".But she said most 

people in Walls don't talk about it. 

"We always think it will happen in 

California, not in Mississippi." 

Jordan has thought about moving away "a couple of times." -

Jimmy James lives southwest of 

Walls near Lake Cormorant. He 

knows about the fault's history and 

the December. prediction. "I just 

don't worry about it. We've never 

had one around here," said James, 

49, the town'spostmaster. "When it 

comes my time to go, I'm gonna go." 

James said there is no way for 

people so near the fault zone to be 

prepared for a major quake. "It's going to be strictly chaos," he said. 

Worry or not, he said he does have 

earthquake insurance on his home. 

In October, the Mississippi Insurance Department issued news 

releases encouraging all to buy 

earthquake insurance, which is not 

standard in a homeowners policy. 

Maher said MEMA is preparing 

for a 7.6 quake "because everyone 

says there's sufficient strain on the 

system to cause that." A mid-1980s 

study says a 7.6 is "the maximum 

possible quake for five to 10 yearswhich is right now. 

"The worst case scenario is an 

8.6," Maher said. "I think if we had 

just a 6.3, we'd be fortunate," he 

said. 

"If- I mean when - we have a 

(major) earthquake, it's not just going to cause damage to our homes 

and our buildings," Maher warned. 

"We're going to lose our infrastructure - pipes that bring us gas, our 

water, maybe our communications 

system, our utilities system, emergency facilities and bridges and 

highways - especially in the Delta." 

Dams and levees also could cave 

in, causing huge floods, studies say. 

"A 7.6 ... couldmakedamagevisible as far south as right here in 

Jackson," he said. "As you go north 

and west, damage would get worse. ;"In northwest Mississippi ... w~re going to see major destruction. f"fhe economics?" he pondered. 

"I wouldn't hazard a guess. Astronomical - not only in Mississippi. 

It would have an effect nationwide." 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 83 

7-16-90 

Blytheville (Ark.) Courier News 

Quake prediction shGk8sU'PA-P~ 

residents along New Ma.drid fault 

By MITCHELL LANDSBERG 

Associated Press Writer 

A scientist's. prediction that a 

quake might strike Missouri and 

neighboring states· Dec. 2 appears 

to have shaken ·loose the seismic· 

fears of people .. in the nation-'s 

heartland. 

. The prediction by climatologist 

Iben Browning - who claims to 

have forecast the Oct. 17 Bay area 

quake but whose theories are 

disputed by most seismologists - has not created a panic. 

But along the New Madrid fault, 

the example of the Northern Cali~ 

fornia quake, coupled with 

Browning's forecast, has raised 

awareness of earthquakes and 

earthquake safety. 

Insurance sales are up, a school 

district has tentatively canceled 

classes and two states' National 

Guards have scheduled-drills that 

week. 

The fault, which roughly follows 

the Mississippi River from Mississippi to Illinois, may ,not be as 

well known as the San Andreas 

fault in . California, but it commands respect among earthquake 

experts. 

The last sizable quake on the 

fault was ii11895, but that's not the 

one people talk about. The Big One - actually, the Big Three or Four _,. occurred in 1811 and 1812, when 

a series of quakes centered in Ne~ 

Madrid, Mo., rocked much of the 

eastern half of the nation. 

The quakes rang church bells in 

Washington, D.c;, and are said to 

have made the Mississippi River 

run backard; They have been estimated at around 8 on the Richter 

scale. 

· ·The quakes have become part of 

the folklore of· the region - "It's 

Our ·Fault," a T-shirt proclaims. 

But ·until recently, that was about 

as far as it went. 

"We talked about it for years," 

said Sheriff Jake Rone of New 

Madrid County, "but we never really got serious about it until this 

thing happened." . . . .The thing that has people talking 

up and down the New.Madrid fault 

is a projection by Browning, a 

scientist from Tijeras, N.M., that 

there could be a major quake in 

the region Dec. 2 or 3. 

Browning, 72, an inventor and 

climate consultant, bases his projection on a convergence of· tidal 

forces, which he believes can put 

stress on earthquake faults. But he. 

stresses it's a possibility, not ·a 

certainty, that such a quake will 

happen. , Still,· he claims to have 

predicted last October's California quake U8irig the same method - ·he-says he· warned a group of 

executives in San Francisco seven 

days before the quake. 

Despite the disdain of 

seismologists, a school district in 

Mississippi County, Ark., has tentatively canceled ~lassesDec. 3-4. _ InSurance agents in Arkansas 

say their business -iri qitake insurance policies picked up 

noticeably after the California 

temblor and dramatically after 

word of Browning's projection 

became public in March. 

The director of Indiana's 

Emergency Management Agency 

doesn't necessarily believe the 

forecast, but he doesn't disbelieve 

it either. 

"I basically have taken the 

position we are not going to ignore 

this prediction," Jerry Hauer 

said. 

Hauer also is chairman of the 

Central United States Earthquake 

Consortium,< which includes 

emergency management directors from .the states that would be 

hardest hit ·by a New Madrid 

quake - Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky~ Mississippi, 

Missouri and TenneSsee~ 

The conSortjum "has .·taken no 

action to prepare for a December 

quake, and Hauer said· Browning 

probably will be proved wrorig~ 

But just in case he isn't, Hauer 

said, "If we have to schedule National Guard drills . during the 

month of December, why not 

schedule them that week'?" 

Officials in Missouri and 

Arkansas have already done just th~t, . both planning earthquake 

drtlls for guardsmen in the first 

few days of December; 

':If something does happen, 

we 11 be there,'' said Arkansas 

Guard spokeswoman Maj. Cissy 

Lashbrook. '~If nothing happens" 

people will see we're prepared for 

this type of emergency.'' 

Seismologists have mixed feelings about Browning's forecast. 

It's not that they don't believe 

there will be a quake; they just 

don't believe it can be forecast as 

specifically as Browning suggests. 

As close as seismologists can 

pinpoint it, there's ·a 40 percent to 

63 percent chance of a severe 

quake- one that is magnitude 6 

on the Richter scale - on the New ~adrid fault in the next 15 years. 

"Yes, .people ought to be 

prepared," -said Klaus Jacob, a 

senior research ·scientist at Columbia University's LamontDoherty . Geological Observatory 

in Palisades, N.Y. "They should 

be prepared on Dec. 3 and 4. But 

they should also be prepared today 

and tomorrow, and Dec. 1 and 

next year.'' 

"Earthquakes don't care about 

predictions," he said. "And people 

shouldn't worry about predictions; they should worry about 

earthquakes.'' 
84 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

7-16-90 

Blytheville (Ark.) Courier News 

Reprinted by permission of the Associated Press 

Officials urge residents to prepare for earthquake 

7-21-90 

By The Associated Press 

Residents of the New Madrid 

Fault region should prepare to 

follow the 72-hour rule if a major 

earthquake hits the region, officials say. 

That means they should plan to 

be on their own for at least three 

days should an earthquake rumble 

through the region. 

"The 72-hour rule is very realistic," said Jeff Crenshaw, director of the Memphis-8helby County 

Emergency Management Agency. 

"It's unproven what's going to 

happen in this area," he said. 

"You can't compare the 1811 ear- thquake because no one was living 

here in 1811. You've got to think 

the worst.'' 

A series of major earthquakes 

struck the region in 1811-12. A New 

Mexico climatologist has projected an earthquake for Dec. 2 or 3 along the fault that runs from 

Marked Tree, Ark., to · New 

Madrid, Mo., on to Cairo, lli. lben 

Browning correctly predicted last 

October's San Francisco earthquake. 

One oeoncern Js tf¥it colla~ed 

bridges and overpasses would trap people in the area and block help 

from the outside. That's one 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

reason why families, communities 

and cities should store enough 

food and water for three days, plus 

medical supplies, blankets and 

other items that would be needed 

in a disaster, civil defenSe plan- ners say. 

The new l-40 bridge across the 

Mississippi River was built with a seismic resistance design, Crenshaw said. But the on- and offramps weren't, he noted. 

It's· possible that Craighead 

County would be divided by the St. 

Francis River, said Glen Bradley, 

county emergency services· coor- dinator. 

Blytheville schools have food 

and medical supplies on hand, 

thanks to a student project last 

spring, said Joe Musick; Mississippi County emergency services 

coordinator. 

The city of Jonesboro added a seismic resistance provision to its 

building code last April. The 

committee that helped develop the · provision is working on coor- dinating various rescue efforts 

and increasing public awareness, 

committee chairman Charlie 

Smith said. 

The committee supports the 

72-hour self-sufficiency rule, 

Smith said. But the group also is 

trying to designate "casualty 

management areas," where medical supplies, treatment and food 

would be stored. 

West Memphis is "500 percent 

better prepared" for disaster than 

it was in December 1987, when a tornado tore through the city, fire 

chief Mac Holmes said 

Two weeks later, the community was flooded. Holmes said the 

community now is better prepared 

for disasters. 

Brown's -prediction has 

-heightened public awareness, 

Holmes said. People are stocking 

up on canned food, water and fuel. 

His department has equipment 

designed to dig through rubble and 

collapsed buildings, Holmes said. 

He's considered J)arking city 

fire trucks outside the station on Dec. 3, Holmes said. But, "you 

hate to scare people," he said. 

West Memphis, which has just 

two seismically resistance buildings, can look across the river to 

Memphis for help, Holmes said. 

"We don't like to come off as Big 

Brother, but this is a mid-South 

area," Crenshaw said. "Those 

people are our friends and 

neighbors. I don't know that they 

might be bigger help to us." 

Reprinted by permission _ 

Quake Prediction Taken Seriously 

By William Allen 

Of lite Post-Dlspatc~ Staff 

DESPITE CRITICISM by some 

scientists, a prediction of a 

_ . New Madrid Fault earthquake 

on Pee. 3 should be taken seriously 

and-not dismissed as unscientific, an 

earthquake expert said Friday. 

·:~:From· a-'sclentlflc vlewpoh_tt, we 

can rneitber verify nor discredit this 

pro)~ctlon,'' said the expert, David 

Stef?lirt. He Is the director of the Center;. tor Earthquake Studies at SoutheasfMlssourl State f.Jnlverslty, In cape 

Girardeau. 

; 'tewart made the comment in a 

telephone Interview after releasing a 

detailed inemo assessing an earthquilke forecast by Iben Browning, a 

scientist In Sandia Park, N.M. Stewart 

serit the memo June 18 to federal and 

state emergency management offl-· 

clals and scientists. 

Browning has predicted that unusuallY: strong gravitational forces comtrig to a head on Dec. 3 will Increase 

the •' chances of a destructive earthquake In the New Madrid Fault. The 

prediction has caused some officials 

Jn re$~Ons near the fault to cancel 

''W. hat Dr. Browning is doing cannot . be 

explained merely by chance. Although his accuracy 

is not 100 percent, his methodology does seem to 

be promising and worthy of serious and thorough 

consid~ration·. '' 

DAVID STEWART, director of the Center for Earthquake Studies at 

Southeast Missouri State University 

vacations and school around that date 

and to plan earthquake-preparedness 

exercises.. · 

The New Madrid Fault runs for 

about 120 mileS through part of southeastern Missouri, Southern Illinois, 

Tennessee and Arkansas. Seismologists rate the chances of a damaging 

earthquake of 6.0 or better on the 

Richter scale at about 50 percent at 

some time by the end of the decade. 

Browning expects a major earthquake on Dec. 3 in either the New 

Madrid Fault, the H_ayward Fault in 

northern california or a .fault near 

Tokyo, iapan. There is an 87 percent 

chance that one of the three will erupt 

on that date, he said. · · • 

Browning's prediction for the 

New Madrid Fault area hac:; been criticized by earthquake specialists at St. 

Louis University and Memphis State 

University. They said It should not be 

taken seriously because scientific 

studies have foun4 no significant link 

between gravitational forces and 

earthquakes. 

Stewart, a seismologist, went to 

New Mexico to Interview Browning at 

length. He discussed Browning's work 

with several clients who subscribe to 

Browning's newsletter on cllm~te_ and_ 

geological events a·nd their l~rtact;ori 

'the economy. · · •t;,..;.·~·J~:·~ 

Although not "formally tralrfed!'J-1~ 

fields dealing with earthquakeS 1ni(i 

volcanoes, Browning ls highly f~!; 

ed among buslnesspeopJe an<\ :!9Ye!i.~ 

tors, Stewart said l!l. the· memct :III~ 

accuracy on natural disaster·pre4fl~ 

ttons "is said by various people lo .Ji~ 

50 percent at worst and 90 perce~ :df 

beUer most of the time," t~~ ~iiDS 

sa~s~owntng predicted th~· e~/t~i~~ on Oct. 17 In Lorna Prieta, calit~ 'ftni! 

the eruption of Mount ~t:- lf~f~~~ May 1980. He also accurately pre'dl.c~ 

ed the earthquake In Septell!li~fi~~ 

In Mexico City, M~x!co; the Yt>f~pij. 

eruption·fn November 1985ln COlii~ 

bia and the earthquake ln.I9?J'I~~q: 

Fernando, Calif. ··. -_: ~-(~-=~'!-.~ 

"What Dr. Browning Is doing c4f!9.9!. 

be explained merely by f;~apt~~ 

Stewart said. "Although his accuracf. 

Is not 100 percent, hls method!)Y6gi: 

does seem to be promising an<ty.r9fthY, 

of serious an·d thorou.g~ 

consideration." ··.: ·.; ~ ~M.ii 

Browning has said that It the tault ~ 

"loaded," the gravitational·· ~QrceS: 

would simply act to "pull the trlgg~r·~l 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 

Quake warning rattles residents 

New Madrid area prepares; some are uncon vi need 

By Lee Hancock 

FlJ!fl Writer of The Dallas Mornll1g News • 50-50 chance of big quake by 2000. 28A 

BLYTHEVILLE, ,Ark.- Many experts deride 

lben Browning's warning that a powerful earthquake could rattle:Middie America on Dec. 3. 

• In Wilson, Ark., Doug Jackson has sold 100 

earthquake insurance policies in two weeks, and 

schools have canceled classes Dec. 3 and 4. 

But some worried residents of the region are 

bracing for the Big One: 

Across the region, people are paying heed to 

the self-styled climatologist's claim that the New 

Madrid fault will set off a devastating quake 

within 48 hours of Dec. 3. 

• Two weeks _ago, banker Steve Bell's custom, 

ers began asking how to make withdrawals 

when the earthquake topples the bank building. 

• In neighboring W~rdell, Mo., one quarter of 

the town packed a schoolhouse Monday to hear 

Red Cross instructor Bob Edwards teach earthquake survival skills. 

"There's people that think that . .. half of the 

population of this town won't be here because 

they're planning to leave," said Mr. Bell, a 

Blytheville alderman and vice president of the 

Merchants & Farmers Bank. 

"My honest opmwn: rm afraid 

it's going to happen," he said. Pointing at a concrete support behind his 

desk, he added, "I'm not sure I'll 

want to be here, either." 

The northeast Arkansas town of 

25,000 - a county seat with an Air 

Force base and several small industries - is perched directly over the 

fault. Despite local jokes about the 

prediction, knowing what lies beneath the flat delta farmland 

clearly makes some uneasy. 

"Our fire chief told our firemen 

they can't take vacatlon. SOme al-. 

ready asked," said Mr. Edwards, a 

fire department lieutenant. "He 

said we could ship our families out, 

but we're staying. It was said kind 

of in jest, but I think that everyone 

is actually pretty serious about 

this." 

In neighboring Half Moon, Barry 

Bivens' family won't wait to see 

what December brings. 

"We're going to Sardis, Miss., a 

week before and we11 stay there until a week after it's supposed to happen," he said. "We're worried that 

it'll suck our houses plumb under. 

Why wait around and wonder?" 

One geophysicist studying Dr. 

Browning's methods says the projection can't be ignored because he 

has predicted other earthquakes -

including last October's California 

temblor. 

"Here's a man who verifiably has 

hit several home runs, and he's up 

to bat," said David Stewart, director 

of the Earthquake Information Center at Southeast Missouri State University in Cape Girardeau. "Is he 

going to hit another one? You don't 

know, but you can't ignore the batting record." · 

But most experts dismiss the 

warning. They acknowledge that 

there is a 5().50 chance that a destructive quake will hit the fault by 

decade's end, but they say the projection lacks scientific validity. 

"It seems like people are becoming worried about it for no reason 

at all,' said Dr. Brian Mitchell, 

chairman of the department of 

Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at 

St. Louis University. 

At the center of the furor is an 

ailing 72-year-old inventor from Tijeras, N.M., who has spent much of 

the last 20 years offering clients advice on the esoteric topic of future 

world climates. 

· Dr. Btowning decl~e<IJll bt!. interviewed. But his daughter,-Evelyn 

Browning Garriss, said her father 

began forming his ·wide-ranging 

theories while working. at Sandia 

Laboratories in Albuquerque. 

Dr. Browning has a doctorate in 

biology from the University of 

Texas, and Ms. Garriss said his interests range across many fields. 

She said he has been a test pilot and 

developed weaponry and TV technology. 

In 1973, he became an adviser on 

everything from weather to politics 

for the investment company now 

known as Paine Webber, said Roger 

Spencer, a first vice president. 

Dr. Browning's weather theories 

have prompted national media coverage. After predicting the 1980 

eruption of Mount St. Helens, he 

was featured in a PaineWebber 

commercial. 

"He's been dismissed as a nut," 

Mr. Spencer said, "but all I know is 

that he's laid out these theories for 

years, and bad things happen on 

these days when he says they will." 

Ms. Garriss said the ideas that· 

spawned her father's latest projection arose from research for the 

U.S. government on peaceful uses 

for atomic bombs. While studying 

how explosions affect the atmosphere, . she said, he became fascinated with volcanoes. 

He found that volcanoes are 

triggered by the same gravitational 

pulls that cause ocean tides, and 

"discovered that the same forces 

that trigger volcanoes also trigger 

earthquakes," she said. 

Using calculations called "vector 

sum high tides" - sums combining 

gravitional pulls of the moon, the 

sun and the planets - he pinpointed dates and areas of potential 

seistnic and volcanic activity. 

That theory produced his projec-. 

tion of an earthquake on the New 

Madrid fault. 

Dr. Stewart, a Missouri geophysicist, began researching Dr. Browning's methods after his projection 

was made public in November. His 

initial conclusion: Dr. Browning's 

work can't be discounted. 

He said he does not fully understand Dr. Browning's methods but 

has confirmed the inventor's predictions of the Mexico City earthquake a deadly volcanic eruption in 

Colombia, both in 1985 and last 

year's California quake. 

"If you just take California last 

year all by itself, the chances of 

being correct on that, at the most 

conservative, would ·be at least one 

in 2,500, and probably it's a one in 

100,000 chance," he said. "It's almost 

impossible to pick a date, time and 

place correctly. But he did it." 

Dt. Stewart said he .isn't convinced that Dr. Browning's latest 

projection is right. "But I certainly 

can't say it won't happen for sure. 

His methodology has_ not been put 

to the scientific test~ That doesn't mean it's wrong." · 

Other scientists strongly disagree. They say Dr. Browning's theories have been disproved by seismologic studies. · 

"I think as far as the prediction 

goes, he's completely wrong," said 

Dr. Mitchell. 

The tidal forces that Dr. Browning says might trigger a December 

quake won't be abnormally strong, 

"and in past earthquakes, there just 

hasn't been a correlation between 

tidal pull and seismic activity," he 

said. 

Dr. Mitchell and others also contend that Dr. Browning's past pre85 

7-22-90 

Dallas Morning 

News 

Reprinted with pennission of 

The Dallas Morning News 

Iben Browning the 

Mount St. Helens eruption 

and last year's California 

quake are among his correct ' 

predictions. 

dictions are suspect because they 

weren't presented to unbiased observers. . 

"They have been made to 

friends, business associates or in 

talks in front of business groups. 

It's kind of hard to know what went 

on in those settings, how many he's 

made and how many are correct," 

he said. 

Dr. Browning's daughter said he 

has made only seven projections 

since 1971 and all have been correct. "He's very careful," said Ms. 

Garriss, who edits her father's 

monthly newsletter on the effects 

of global climate changes. 

He hasn't publicized predictions 

because "he's a private person," she 

said. "He's trying to give business 

clients information to make policy 

with. He's not talking with the scientific community." 

Although rejected by most scientists, Dr. Browning's new warning 

has gained attention from many in 

a region already worried about the 

New Madrid fault's potential for destruction. 

Some earthquake-preparedness 

efforts have been under way for six 

years because seismologists warned 

in the_ early 1980s that a temblor 

measuring 6.0 on the Richter -scale 

!lad a so.so chance·of occurring before2000. · 

Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri and 

the cities of ·Carbondale, lll., 

Memphis, Tenn., and St. Louis have 

approved seismic building codes in 

the past two years. 
86 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRiD, MO. EARTHQUAKE 

7-22-90 

Dallas Morning News 

(Continued) 

Since 1984, seven states and the 

Federal Emergency Management 

Agency have developed a regional 

emergency response system 

through the Central U.S. Earth· 

quake Consortium in Memphis. 

"Especially with the earthquake 

in California last fall, the central 

U.S. woke up," said Jeff Crenshaw, 

director of Memphis-Shelby County 

emergency operations. "But this 

prediction has really gotten people's attention." 

Since the prediction gained regional publicity in June, emergency officials have been swamped 

with queries from local officials 

and an unprecedented number of 

requests for earthquake prepared- ness classes. · 

In the past three weeks, 

Memphis State University's Center 

for Earthquake Information and Research also bas "has been inundated with calls," said Jill Stevens 

information and education direc: 

tor. The center is trying to play down 

the projection, she said, but "some 

people are panicking. There are 

quite a few people who are apparently considering very seriously 

the prospect of leaving. We haven't 

bad experience with this before. I 

think we are kind of naive as a region, and we've been taken in." 

Most state officials place little 

stock in the prediction, but they 

hesitate to reject it for fear of encouraging complacency about real 

threats posed by the fault. 

As a result, officials in Indiana, 

Arkansas and Missouri have 

planned emergency drills for National"Guard· units arrd state agencies in late November or early December. 

Mississippi officials are accelerating preparedness planning. And in 

Illinois, officials are forming a "covert plan" to address panic that 

might result if any detectable tremors bit the region near the predicted date, said Tom Zimmerman, 

the state's emergency planning director. 

To further soothe regional concerns, state emergency officials 

want scientific experts to formally 

evaluate the prediction. Several 

state officials said they have asked 

the National Earthquake Prediction 

Council, based in Californi.a, to address the issue. 

The council of pre-eminent 

Earth scientists has turned down 

the request. 

"They don't want to glorify the 

prediction," Dr. Mitchell said. 

Said Mr. Zimmerman, "If his 

forecast is correct, he'll really put 

the world of earthquake prediction 

on its ear." 

Chance ot major quake 

by decade's end is 5(}50 

By Lee Hancock 

SUff WrfUr of The Dollas lloruing News 

BLYTHEVILLE. ARK. - The upper Mississippi River delta appears 

languid and immovable, its land· 

scape of cotton and soybean fields 

disturbed only by scattered farm 

communities. 

But scientists say the region, 

which Includes parts of seven lower 

Midwest and Southern states, rests 

·uneasily atop a sleeping giant. 

. The area lies along the New Madnd fault, a subterranean fracture 

blamed for the country's biggest 

earthquakes, which shook North 

America in 1811 and 1812. 

Seismologists say there is a S0-50 

chance that the fault will produce a 

destructive earthquake measuring 

at least 6.0 on the Richter scale by 

decade's end. 

And .If it Is large enough and 

close enough to the region's cities, 

emergency planners say, the next 

temblor could cause widespread destruction and kill thousands of people. 

"The New Madrid fault generally 

will put out a destructive earth· 

quake every third generation," said 

David Stewart, director of the Center for Earthquake Studies in Cape 

Girardeau, Mo. "We're now into 

that third generetlon, so it's only a 

question of time." 

Scientists believe that the fault 

was formed 600 million years ago 

and stretches more than 120 miles 

from Marked Tree, Ark., into south· 

west Illinois, along the way branch· 

ing into the Missouri boot heel and 

western Tennessee. 

Experts in Earth science say the 

system is not as well understood as 

California's San Andreas fault, a 

much newer formation. 

"Right now, we think it's just an 

old weak place in the Earth's crust 

where strain is built up," said Dr. 

Bnan Mitchell, chairman of the de· 

THE MIDWEST'S iART.HQUAKE ZONE __ ... """ ~~ , . ' . 

LOUISIANA 

SOURCE: Federal Emergency Management~ Agency. Central United States Earthquake Consortium. 

- Disastrous 

- Ruinous 

~ Destructive 

.-- ----- · - - - _ __ .J 

Very Strong 

Strong 
7-22-90 

Dallas Morning News 

(Continued) 

partment of Earth and Atmospheric 

Sciences at St. Louis University. 

The Earth's crust there is much 

older and colder than in California, 

so it conducts seismic waves much 

more efficiently; scientists say. 

Therefore, they say, an earthquake 

as powerful as October's California 

quake, which'registered 7.1 on the 

Richter scale. would cause more damage in the central United States 

than California incurred in last 

fall's temblor. The California quake 

killed 67 people, injured more than 

2,800, left more than 1~000 ~o~eless and destroyed bilhons of dollars worth of property. 

The New Madrid fault rumbles 

Blmost daily, releasing temblors 

from depths as shallow as one mile 

. to as deep as 10 miles beneath the 

Earth's surface, said Dr. Mitchell, a 

seismologist who has studied the 

fault for 15 years. 

Most of those quakes are too 

weak for people to detect, he said. 

The last palpable shaker, which 

measured slightly more than 4 on 

the Richter scale, rattled northeast 

Arkansas in April1989. . 

But the fault has not always been 

benign. 

In the early 1800s, it unleashed 

forces powerful enough to ring 

church bells in Boston, set off landslides in the mountains of North Carolina and buckle sidewalks in Baltimore. Tremors were felt as far 

away as South Florida and what is 

now Wyoming. 

In December 1811, a· quake estimated at magnitude 8.6 occurred 

near New Madrid, Mo., then a town 

of 1,000 that was the largest settlement between St. Louis and New Orleans. 

Two more quakes measuring 

more than 8 on the Richter scale hit 

the region in January and February 

1812, and they were followed by 

more than 2,000 massive aftershocks, Dr. Stewart said. 

The shakes obliterated New Madrid and two nearby river towns, 

temporarily forced the Mississippi 

River to run backward and permanently changed its course. 

In northwest Tennessee, sand 

spouts, sinking land and other seisAPPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 87 

mic action formed what is now 

Reelfoot Lake from dry land in January 1812. 

Settlers described violent upheavals that caused land to ripple 

like ocean waves, shot sand as 

much as 40 feet into the air and 

opened gaping fissures that spouted 

dark water and noxious gases. 

"You have to consider that today, 

the same area that was sparsely populated, with a total of about 5,000 

people, now bas 1.5 million people," 

and that doesn't include Memphis, 

Tenn., Paducah, Ky. or Cape Girardeau, Dr. Stewart said. 

The area bas as many as 12 million people, be said, "so the ~~­

tial for destruction is significa~· 

A study completed in 1985 f~the 

Federal Emergency Manageitient 

Agency predicted that an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 would cause 

more than 3,000 deaths and $38 billion in damage in area cities alone. 

Such a quake could devastate 

Memphis, the region's largest city. 

There, almost all highways and 

other transportation, much of the 

downtown area and many residential areas could be severely damaged, the report says. 

"Depending on the time of day 

and the time of year, it could do a 

lot of damage," said Jeff Crenshaw, 

director of the Memphis-Shelby 

County Emergency Management Office. "We have a lot of buildings 

with unreinforced masonry that 

could be hit hard." 

Although several states and cities in the region have recently enacted seismic building codes, they 

apply only to new construction, and 

do not correct deficiencies in the 

region's existing buildings. 

A large quake also could devastate highways and buildings in 

other parts of the region. Many rural areas could be isolated. Emergency management officials say residents should be prepared to fend 

for themselves for up to 72 hours after a large quake. 

Earthquakes of a destructive nature are inevitable along the New 

Madrid fault," Dr. Stewart said. 

"The point people need to realize: 

We need to prepare now." 

7-22-90 

Indianapolis Star 

Reprinted by permission 

of the Associated Press 

Expert takes New Madrid 

quake prediction seriously 

ASSOCIATED PRESS 

St. Louis - Despite criticism 

bv some s~ientists. a prediction 

of a New Madrid Fault earthquake on Dec. 3 should be taken 

seriously and not dismissed as 

unscientific. says one earthquake expert. 

"From a scientific viewpoint. 

we can neither verify nor disBrowning's prediction for the 

New Madrid Fault area has been 

criticized by earthquake specialists at St. Louis University and 

Memphis State University. They 

said it should not be taken seriously because scientific studies 

have found no significant link 

between gravitational forces and 

earthquakes. 

credit this projection," David. Stewart. a seismologist. went 

Stewart said Friday. Stewart is to New Mexico to interview 

director of the Center for Earth- Browning at iength. He disquake Studies at Southeast Mis- cussed Browning's work with 

sourl State -1.Jniversity__:- in Cape several clients who subscribe to 

::iirardeau. Mo. Browning's newsletter on eliStewart made the comment mate and geological events and 

1fter releasing a detailed memo their impact on the economy. 

assessing an earthquake fore- Although not "formally 

cast by lben Browning, an in- trained" in fields dealing with 

ventor from Sandia Park. N.M. :earthquakes and volcanoes, 

Stewart sent the memo June 18 Browning is highly respected 

to federal and st~te emergency among businesspeople and in-

~anagement officials and sclen- vestors. Stewart said in the 

lists. . memo. His accuracy on natural 

Browning has predicted ~hat .disaster predictions "is said by 

unusually strong gravitational various people to be 50 percent 

forces coming to a head on Dec. at worst and 90 percent or better 

3 will increase the chances of a most of the time,.. the memo destructive earthquake in the sa s · New Madrid Fault. The predic- Y • 

tion has caused some officials in ·Browning is said to have preregions near the fault to cancel dieted the earthquake on Oct. 1 7 

vacations_ and_ school ·around in Lorna Prieta. Calif., and the 

that date and to -plan earth- eruption of Mount St. Helens in 

quake-preparedness exercises. May 1980. He also accurately 

-The New Madrid Fault runs predicted the earthquake in Sepfor about 120 miles through part tember 1985 fn Mexico City. 

of southeastern. Missouri. South- Mexico: the volcano eruption in 

em Illinois, Tennessee and Ar- November 1985 in Colombia and 

kansas. Seismologists rate the the earthquake in 1971 in San 

chances of a damaging earth- Fernando, Calif. 

quake of 6.0 ·or better on the 

Richter scale at about 50 percent at some time by t_he end of 

the decade. 

· {Such an earthquake could 

cause major damage to nearby 

Evansville and lesser damage as 

far north as central Indiana. experts believe.) 

Browning expects a major 

earthquake on Dec. 3 in either 

the New Madrid Fault. the Hayward Fault in northern California or a fault near Tokyo. 

"What Dr. Browning is doing 

cannot be explained merely by 

chance."· Stewart said. "Although his accuracy is not I 00 

percent. his methodology does 

seem to be promising and worthy of serious and thorough con- sideration." 

Browning has said that if the 

fault is "loaded," the gravita: 

tional forces would simply act to 

"pull the trigger.'" 
88 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

7-25-90 

St. Louis 

Post-Dispatch 

Editorial 

Reprinted by permission 

7-26-90 

It Can Happen Here 

_Laugh if you want, but if Iben Browning is right in 

predicting an earthquake - even a few faint tremors·- along the New Madrid Fault, be will have 

done more than anyone around to help prepare this 

are,a for a disaster~in-the-making. Mr. Browning, a 

__ scientist based in Sandia Park. N.M., believes that a 

major shock -will -occur Dec~- 3 in orie -of "tb.ree 

places: the New Madrid Fault south of St Louis, the 

Hayward Fault in northern california or a fault in 

Japan. Because he is not a seismologist and does not 

use- orthodox methods of prediction, some people 

will not take Mr. Browning's warning seriously. 

Others in Missouri and elsewhere in the Midwest 

will-pooh-pooh his warning because they refuse to 

believe that a severe quake can occur-here. The last 

big ones were in 1811-12, but another big one has a 

one-in-two chance of occurring before 2000. 

Mr. Browning has a good record of accurate 

predictions - good enough to be taken with a great 

deal of caution. That means he should be heeded; if 

it takes a prophet to wake Missourians up, so be it 

Being prepared for an earthquake isn't easy, 

especially in an area where there have been so few. 

The Missouri General Assembly faced up to same 

of the problems this year by passing a bill requiring 

~public buildi.rigs ·to IQeet higher sta.Ildards in ·order 

to be more· earthquake-resistant That won'f do 

anything, however, for the buildings now standing. 

Civil defense officials have held disaster drills to 

hone their response times. The state bas made 

some efforts to prepare for a major quake. 

What's left? More drills- and more reviews· of. 

procedures by officials. The most important factor 

now may be for families and individuals to review 

what they need to do to be ready when an earthquake strikes. Better to be prepared than mourning 

the deaths of loved ones. Now's the time to think 

about Dec. 3 - or whenever a quake might strike. 

Dallas Morning News 

Reprinted with permission of The Dallas Morning News 

Experts to study 

quake prediction 

Geological agency to convene panel 

of scientists 'to set people at ease' 

By Lee Hancock 

Staff Writer of The Dallas Morning News 

The U.S. Geological Survey will 

officially evaluate a New .Mexico 

man's warning that an earthquake 

may rock the central United States 

on Dec. 3, 1990, an agency official 

said Wednesday. 

Walter Hays, an official with the 

Geological Survey in Washington, 

said the agency would convene a panel of geologists and seismologists from throughout the . .central 

United- States to- study the prediction: 

"We're not at all impressed with 

this forecast," he said. "On the surface we would not expect there is 

any basis for concern. But we ·do 

want to set people at ease and be satisfied h1 our own minds that we haven't overlooked something." 

The location of the predicted 

earthquake is along the New Ma· 

drid fault, which runs between 

Marked Tree, Ark.,· and Cairo,-Til., 

and has branches in West Tennes- see and the Missouri boot heel. 

Scientists say it is impossible to 

predict exactly when an earthquake 

will occur. However, they say they are trying to estimate the probability of an earthquake along several 

highly active faults in the United 

States. 

The decision to evaluate the prediction follows a plea for help by 

I the region's seven-state earthquake 

I 

response coalition, an agency that 

1

has been strUggling for more than a month to address growing regional 

fears about the prediction· by lben 

-Browning, a self-styled climatologist from Tijeras, N.M. 

Dr. Hays said U.S. Geological Sur1vey scientists have considered 1

about 300 predictions since 1977 

that ranged from the scientific to 

the ridiculous. But he said that the 

widespre·ad public concern makes 

Dr: Browning's prediction unique 

and-that it was-the-primary reason lodhe eval1lafioii. -

I 

Dr. Hays said the study probably 

would be completed by the end of 

September. 

Indiana, Arkansas and Missouri 

recently began planning emergency exercises for their National 

Guard units and other state agencies to take place in late November 

or early December because of public concern about the prediction. 

In some areas, insurance agents 

have reported skyrocketing demand for earthquake policies, and 

some local officials fear that some residents are considering leaving 

the area just before the predicted 

date. One school district in Northeast Arkansas is canceling classes on Dec. 3 and 4 because of the prediction, and state emergency management officials in Arkansas and 

Missouri have said that other 

school districts in their states may 

consider closing. 

In Atlanta, the regional federal 

office of the General Service Administration - which manages federal properties in several southeast- ern states along the fault- is informally evaluating the prediction, Dr. 

Hays said. 

"They are obviously concerned," 

he said. ''They want to see if there is 

credence so they can take action if 

appropriate." 

State officials say a formal evaluation of the prediction should significantly ease the concern. "I think obviously the quicker 

. that we get a critical scientific analysis, the better off we'll be," said 

Jerome Hauer, chairman of the 

Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium and director of Indiana's 

emergency management office. 

"If in fact this group of scientists 

feels the risk is no-greater on Dec. 3 

than at any other point in time it 

will help allay people's fears," Mr. 

Hauer said. 

Dr. Browning, a retired inventor 

with a doctorate in biology, contends that the same gravitational 

forces from the sun, moon and 

other planets that cause ocean tides 

also tug at the Earth's crust. The 

1orces ebb and flow in cycles as long as 179 years and when strong 

enough, trigger seismic activity, ac- cording to Dr. Browning's theory. 

He claims to have used his theory to_ predict that a New Madrid 

earthquake higher than 7 on the 

Richter seale probably will occur within 48 hours of Dec. 3. 

Dr. Browning says he predicted 

last October's San Francisco earthquake, the 1985 Mexico City earth" 

quake, the 1980 eruption of Mount 

St Helens and several other natural 

disasters. 

Several prominent earth scien: 

tists from the mid-South and Mid~ 

west have rejected Dr. Browning'~ 

theory, saying it has been disprovea 

by existing studies. But one geophysicist, David Stewart of Southeast 

Missouri State University, has in~ 

vestigated Dr. Browning's past predictions and contends that the theory can't be discounted until it iS 

thoroughly studied. 

The National Earthquake Predic: 

tion Council, an advisory board of 

earth science experts set up by th~ 

U.S. Geological Survey, last month 

refused to evaluate the Dr. Browning's prediction. "They didn't want 

to glorify it," one mid-south 

seismologist said. 

Dr. Hays said the 13-member 

council would evaluate the findings 

of the regional scientists' group at 

the request of the federal geological 

agency. 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 89 

8-5-90 

Springfield (Mo.) News-Leader 

Reprinted by permission 

Officials· heed quake warning 

Springfield could expect wave of tremor's refugees 

By J. Lee Howard 

The News-Leader 

A prediction of a December earthquake along the New Madrid fault 

is being taken seriously by state and 

local officials who are planning for 

the worst. 

Iben Browning. a 72-year-old New 

Mexico climatologist, projects a 50-

50 chance the quake will hit Dec. 3, 

give or take a day. But he said the 

quake also could strike in the Hayward fault in the East Bay in San 

Francisco or in Tokyo. 

Browning is no star gazer, palm 

reader or swami. But the accuracy 

of · his "mathematical projections" 

- he eschews the word "predictions" ~has astounded and baffied 

geologists and seismologists, many 

of whom question his leclmiques. 

Browning has · predicted seven 

major earthquakes, including the 

Oct. 17, 1989, Lorna Prieta earthquake that ravaged San Francisco. 

"He's been correct on so many 

other things," said Candace Adams 

of the Springfield-Greene County 

Emergency Management Office. "I 

think everybody ought to take him 

seriously." 

Springfield probably wouldn't get 

the bulk of the shock from a New 

Madrid quake, however. What 

Springfield may get, Adams said, is 

about 200,000 refugees from eastern 

Missouri. 

The New Madrid fault runs about 

120 miles through southeastern MiSsouri, southern Illinois, western 

Tennessee and Arkansas.: In 1812, 

the New Madrid fault unleashed an 

earthquake believed to be the worst 

in U.S. history. 

Seismologists have predicted 

about a 50 percent chance ·for an 

earthquake of 6.0 on the Rjchter 

scale to strike the fault sometime 

before the tum of this century. 

Browning, however, is the only 

one with a date in mind. 

He makes his projections by calculating tidal activity and the pressures the sun and moon exert on the 

Earth. Mysticism doesn't play a role 

in his projections, he said. 

"I don't predict anything," 

Browning said from his home in 

Sandia Park, N.M., Friday. "That's 

a lot of garbage." 

Browning referred to a scientific 

paper recently brought to his attention. The paper was published in 

1967 in the journal '1carus," and 

was authored by Gene P. Tamrazyan, a scientist at The Institute of 

Geology at the U.S.S.R. Academy of 

Sciences in Baku, Azerbaidzhan. 

Browning said Tamrazyan's paper, which points to the influences 

tidal waves have on earthquakes, 

supports the theories he uses in 

making his projections. 

lben Browning 

Predicting Dec. 3 earthquake 

8-6-90 

Taylorville (Ill.) Breeze-Courier 

Reprinted by permission 

Study indicates death probabilities if earthqu~e hits 

Federal officials are taking a in the New Madrid zone Dec. 2 or from an event of similar magnitude second look at a study on .the pos· and Memphis, Tenn. Dec. 3. in California," the FEMA study said. ff The study would still be accurate Th FE · sible e ects of an earthquake along in many respects but would need Browning forecasted last fall's San e MA study said that in all 

the New Madrid fault, including the updating in others, including projec- Francisco-area earthquake, as well as cities, "a substantial proportion of 

potential impact on Carbondale, Ill. lions of casualty figures, according to the 1971 earthquake in California's the daytime casualties would · occur 

The 1985 study presents a picture James Lee Witt,: director of the San Fernando Valley that killed 75 among school children." 

of death, injury, flooding and wide- people, the . deadly earthquake in Officials of the South Mississippi seal d Arkansas Office of Emergency Ser- c Sch 1 Di · · e economic · isruption vices. Nicaragua in 1972 and the Mount St. ounty oo stnct m northroughout the region, and one offi- ,

1,m sure the statistics would Helens volcanic eruption in 1980. theastern Arkansas want an extra 

cia! says the numbers ·are now change," he said in a telephone in- Browning is a consultant on two-day holiday for s~dents Dec. 3-

probably too low. terview. He said they probably climatology for various businesses. 4 due to Browning's prediction. The 

The study lists death probabilities ha He said his proJ"ections, a term he school board is exNcted to consider f . . . fro t· 1 R ,.. would ve to be revised upward h d . . , h . or SIX Cities - m Itt e . oc..., because of population increases in prefers over predictions~ are based t e a ministrations oliday recom- Ark., to Paducah, Ky.,- in the event the region since 1985. on vector sum high-tidal forceS. But mendation at this month's meeting. 

of an earthquakes of either 7.6 on the Poplar Bluff had the lowest projec- he acknowledged the theory is con- The school district is within 30 

Richter scale or 8.6 on the scale. The ted number of deaths, according to troversial among seismologists. miles of Marked Tree, the center of a 

study looks at a number of variables the study, while Memphis had the Seismologists have said conditions series of great earthquakes measurin each instance, including points of most. are favorable for a major earthquake ing as high as 85 on the Richter scale 

epicenter and whether the The night and day death predic- along the fault. that rocked the area during the winearthquake occurs during working tions for the 7.6 and 8.6 tremors, in The latest quake in the New Mad- ter of 1811-12. U.S. Geological Survey 

hours or at night when fewer people that order, were: rid seismic zone hit near New Mad- scientists consicfer those the stronocrupy office buildings. Memphis _ 211, 253; 435, 3,786. rid, Mo., on April 26, 1989. It gest series of quakes in the nation's 

The Federal Emergency Manage- Evansville- 23, 277; 58, 492. measured 4.7 on the Richter scale history. . . . . 

ment Agency study is called the Little Rock- 3, 64; 9, 216. and was felt in Arkansas, Missouri, The study says _utilities will be a 

"Central United States Earthquake Paducah - 47, 116; 101, 201. Kentucky and Tennessee. problem followmg a maJor 

Preparedness Project." The New Carbondale - 29, 74; 69, 160. "Due to the different soil con- earthqua~. . . 

Madrid seismic zone extends from Poplar Bluff -1, 17; 4, 52. ditions and overall lack of adequate The National Disaster Med1cal SysMarked Tree in northeastern Arkan- The projections are based op 1985 seismic design in structures in the tern has 5cheduled a nationwide 

sas through New Madrid, Mo., to populations. Mississippi Valley region, a New medical response drill for Oct. 10-13 

Cairo Ill. !ben Browning, a 72-year-old Madrid quake could be expected to to deal with a simulated earthquake 

Other cities in the study include climatologist from Tijeras, N.M., has cause much more extensive and measuring 6.8 with the epicenter at 

Evansville, Ind., Poplar Bluff, Mo., said a major earthquake could occur widespread ·damage than resulted Marked Tree. 
90 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

8-20-90, New York Times 

Copyright© 1990 by The New York Times Company. 

Reprinted by permission 

Midwest Quake Is Predicted; Talk Is Real 

By WILliAM ROBBINS 

'S.pK~Ito nw- Nt'W Yort. Tlmf'l 

NEW MADRID, Mo., Aug. 15- Life on the fault line is always interesting, as people in this trembly old Missis· 

sippi River town often say, but a prediction by a man named I ben Browning 

Is making life hereabouts downright . exciting. 

MISSOURI 

··we were plannmg an exercise any· way," said Maj. Cissy Lashbrook, the 

Arkansas Guard's public information 

officer. "But Browning has attracted so much attention, this looked like e good time to let people know we de 

have a plan." 

Mr. Helmes has planned to store food 

and ,water supplies In a warehouse and 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 91 

Mabus seeking strategy 

for earthquake response 

8-21-90 

Jackson (Miss.) Clarion-Ledger 

Reprinted by permission 

• A scientist has 

projected a quake to strike 

by the end of 1990. 

By Jay Eubank 

Clarion-ledger SteH Writer 

Gov. Ray Mabus is trying to learn 

what Mississippi must do to get 

ready for an earthquake forecast to 

strike before the year ends. . 

Mabus last week convened a 

meeting of leaders of about a halfdoze_n s!ate ag~n~ies to see' where 

preparedness stands-and is-waiting 

on a step-by-step strategy to show 

how the state would respond. 

"You have to be prepared as you 

can," said Mike Goff, Mabus' natural resources adviser. 

"Every agency will play a role in 

the event something of that magnitude happens. That's why (Mabus) 

got everybody together." 

New Mexico scientist Iben 

Browning has rattled mid-America 

with his projection of a major q'uake 

along the New Madrid fault Dec. 2 

orDec.3. 

Browning gained faine for helping 

forecast the 1980 Mount St. Helens 

volcanic eruption in Washington 

state and the San Francisco earthquake on Oct. 17. 

Goff.said Mississippi Emergency 

Management Agency Director Jim 

Maher is helping prepare an executive order for Mabus that will outline an in-depth plan for the state to 

react to an earthquake. 

It should be ready in the next several weeks, Goff said. 

"We are busy briefing state agen- man hold about 4,600 inmates, but 

cies on the earthquake threat - its none of the buildings is designed to 

i>otential" Maher said. "The projec- withstand a major earthquake's 

f'ion has heightened our aware- jolt. 

·ness." Parchman's 16,000 acres also 

Officials with MEMA and the have 150 houses for many guards 

Department of Public Safety dis- and others on the staff of 1,358. 

tussed Monday how to keep com- "Parchman compares with a 

munication active in event of an small town in Mississippi. An 

earthquake. earthquake could have a devast.alMaher is_ also, keepi1!g in ~oucn - .ing eff~ct." ,Jones said. "You're talk -

-with officials in -other slates that i ng-- about. losing power and other 

would be directly affected hy a New utilities that are used at an operaMadridearthquake. tion like a prison. We're looking at 

The New Madrid fault snakes what we can do to combat that." 

north from Marked Tree, Ark ., The New Madrid fault is known 

through New Madrid, Mo., to Cairo, for three jolts in the winter of 1811-

IIl. In Mississippi, a major earth- 12. One of those registered an estiquake could bring widespread de- mated 8.7 on the Richter scale, the 

struction in the Delta and northern third-most severe jolt in recorded 

counties, cause damage in Jackson world history. 

and be felt on the coast. "There is a great deal of conlro-

"It's almost impossible to pre- versy about (Browning's) approach 

pare economically for something of al arriving at these projections," 

that magnitude," Goff said. Maher said. "But the fact that he 

"This is something we haven't had other projections on the money, 

had a lot of training in-that's why you can't discount that." 

we're taking this quite seriously," Maher said the last major quake 

said Maj. Bruce Breland of the Mis- to be felt in much of Mississippi was 

sissippi Highway Patrol, who is the 1895 earthquake centered in 

working with MEMA in developing Charleston, Mo., that registered 6.3 

the earthquake plan. on the Richter scale. 

The plan would be for a quake As December draws closer, Goff 

measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale said, emergency officials may hold 

- about five times more powerful mock drills. 

'than the one that struck San Francisco in October. 

The Richter scale is a measure of 

ground motion as recorded on seismographs. A magnitude of 7 signifies a major earthquake capable of 

causing widespread, heavy damage. 

The Department of Corrections 

"in the very near future" will have a 

strategy on how the State Penitentiary at Parchman in the Delta 

would react, spokesman Ken Jones 

said. "We have begun a series of 

meetings .... We will have a specific 

preparedness plan." 

Twenty-one buildings at ParchMaher said the state isn't stockpiling materials that would be needed in the event of an earthquake. 

"That's a very costly thing," he said. 

"We're locating those materials and 

resources we need, and we'll know 

how to obtain them. In an emergency, we have priority." 

The stale Board of Education on 

Thursday urged all 151 public 

school districts to begin work on 

earthquake safety. The board members said schools should leach students how to protect themselves 

against injury in an earthquake. 
92 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

8-26-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Quake: Prediction For Dec. 3 Stirs Debate 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. - !ben Browning 

doesn't care that earthquake experts have denounced his forecast for an Increased chance of an earthquake In early December In the New 

Madrid Fault. 

"! did not come up with this information for 

seismologists," Browning said· in a recent Interview. "! didn't do it for the public. I did It for my 

clients." 

Browning, a scientist and business consultant 

from Sandia Park, N .M., has said that tidal forces 

coming to a head on or about Dec. 3 could unleash 

various kinds of geological violence In a strip 

around the globe. . 

"'I hope 

people will 

take it 

seriously 

enough tha_t 

they will be 

prepared., 

I BEN BROWNING, 

forecaster of 

earthquakes 

to prepare for a quake. Earthquake experts 

throughout the Midwest are being flooded with 

letters and phone calls. 

So what exactly was It that Browning said will 

happen? How did he come up with his forecasts? 

And why are earthquake scientists so sure 

Browning's technique lsfiawed? 

Browning's Forecast 

Here is Browning's forecast: Within 48 hours on either side of Dec. 3, an earthquake measuring 7.0 or greater on the Rich~ 

ter scale has a 50-50 chance of erupting some- where In the New Madrid Fault, he said. That means It could happen any time from Dec. I, a Saturday, through Dec. 5, a Wednesday. His forecast of geological danger has been 

reported widely over the past several months, 

and scientists have almost unanimously con- demned it and the method behind it. 

• IBEN BROWNING Is proflled ............... Page,9'A · The odds, Browning said, mean the same as 

when a weather forecaster says there's a 50-50 

chance of rain. "In English, that means, 'Maybe, 

but maybe not,'" Browning said. Even so, the reports have caused a rare kind of 

public anxiety in the central United States, where 

the New Madrid Fault runs. 

ployees In carbondale, Ill., have been canceled 

for that week. The Missouri and Arkansas Nation· al Guards plan quake-response drills around the 

He said precursor quakes may occur on or about Oct. 9 and Nov. 6, but the chances of that 

date. , happening are less than around Dec. 3. Ifthe Dec. 

Thursday night, about 500 people packed a. school auditorium In Sikeston, Mo., to learn ho'w· School has been canceled for Dec. 3 In at least one district in Arkansas. Vacations by city em· 

Iben Browning 

Called 'A Man Of 

Great _Honesty' 

By William Allen Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. - Standing on the banks of the Rio Grande, !ben 

Browning reflected on whether an an- cient earthquake fault several thou- sand feet below helped him shape his 

method for forecasting earthquaj{es. "It didn't help me acquire information, but it made me seek it," Browning said, with the Sandia Mountain.' 

towering behind him. New Mexico has 

been "a very stimulating place to live." 

!ben (pronounced "Eye-Ben") 

Browning, 72, has been described as a genius, a renaissance man and a char- latan. He bristles at the notoriety 

brought by _his forecast cit possible earthquakes and volcanic eruptions 

around Dec. 3. Browning's heallh is frail. He suf' - tcrs from compficaiions ·of· diabetes. 

He recently had leg surgery to.correct circulatory problems. Without the sur- gery, he. faced probable amputation of 

his foot because of gangrene. Browning Sl!ffers constant pain and 

often suggests that he may not live to see whether his 'projections come true. He walked with slow, minute 

steps in padded slippers. 

He stood on the banks of the Rio 

Grande recently at the request of an Australian television crew filming a show on earthquakes. Browning con- fesses to a distaste for American 

journalists. 

He has _been "almost universally misquoted" ·by· the U.S. news media, 

he said. ' 

He wore glasses, black slacks, a white shirt, and navy blue tie with a tie 

pin in the form of a bear paw - the 

symbol of an Indian tribe. He has 

short, sandy hair. 

Browning is a biophysicist; climatologist and inventor. Born in Texas, he 

holds a doctorate in physiology, genet- ics and bacteriology from the Univer- sity of Texas at Austin. 

Based in Sandia Park, near Albu· 

querque, he Is a consultant to busi· . 

See QUAKE, Page 9 

nesses on· climate and geological r:-

1

. -h-.

9

-.-N-e-.w--M7_a_d_r-ld--:F-:-a-u-lt-, events and their impact on economics 

and politics. With his daughter, Evelyn Browning Gariss, he publishes a newsletter for ·clients that include 

Paine Webber Inc. I 

Browning holds 67 patents and has 

written four books, including works on AIDS, robots and the relationship be-- 1 

tween climate and history. 

Asked how he felt about his forecast 

of October's quake in· the San Francis- co area, Browning said: "Terrible. 

There is no scientific attitude toward 

disaster. !Just felt terrible.! cried." . He said he never intended to make · public his forecast for December. He assumes some of his business clients 

did so. I 

"I've been asked, 'Why do you tell ! me about something I can't control?' " 

Browning said. "Anll 1 say, 'Suppose 

you lived at the bottom of a cliff and I 

knew about a rock slide. Would you want to know?' .. 

Said David Stewart, a seismologi~ ti '-------~Po·s~t-~Di~spOia~tc".'h•mOiaoo'p from .Missouri who has met at length · with Browning: "He Is a man of great 

honesty, and he is convinced of his 

method. He seems to be on to some- thing. He's definitely not a crank. He's a man of science." 

Browning said he has given all of his 

data to Stewart. 

He said he had worked hard to com- pile the information as a way of making his living and was only releasing it as a gesture of goodwill. 

Browning said he is not a seismolo· 

gist but knows how to use information 

gathered by earthquake experts. What 

distfnguishes his methods from those 

of other scientists who want to predict 

earthquakes is the larger number of 

facets he examines. "Science has been the art of understanding the simple and thus has forfeited the understanding of the com· plex," he said. - Browning said he'd be "surprised" to be alive in December, but if he is, he will not go near the areas listed in 

his forecast. 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 93 

8-26-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Continued) 

I ben Browning's List Of Possible Earthquakes And Volcanoes Around December 3 ·1990 

so· north .. . . . ·. . . . ' .. 

latitude 

Andreas or 

Hayward Fault, 

Calif. 

Earthquake of 7.1 · · 

rl).llli/litude, probabil· 

iiy "less than 50·50" 

Quake 

From.page one 

3 q~ occurs, Dec. 31 and Jan. 28 

are likely aftershock dates, Browning 

said. " 

HOw much greater are those odds 

than ,me scientifically accepted line? 

Sejsmologists say the chances of a 

7.0 e·arthquake erupting somewhere 

in tM,New Madrid Fault within a 

decaje are about 33 percent, said 

Dav1i1Stewart, director of the Center 

for Earthquake Studies. The· center is 

located at Southeast Missouri State 

University, in Cape Girardeau. 

Thjrty-three percent over a decade 

boiJs.,down to about one chance in 

10,0Qp, for any specific day,. Stewart 

said, ·J;o Browning's 50·50 odds are 

abou~5 000 times greater lor Dec. 3. 

~pending on where in the fault the 

earthquake occurs, a quake with a 

magnitude of 7.6. could kill thousands 

of people and cause $25 billion in 

damage over 15 to 20 states Stewart 

said. ' 

"It is potentially the greatest disas· 

ter in American history," he said. 

Browning also has forecast geological danger for other parts of the world 

lor th~ same time frame. 

He rates the chances· lor an 8.2 

earthquake in Tokyo "higher than 50· 

50." The odds lor a quake of 7.1 in 

either the San Andreas· or Hayward 

faults in California are "less than 50· 

50." 

Volcanoes may erupt in the Flegrei 

Fields, west of Naples, Italy. They also 

may occur in Mammoth Lakes, Calif.; 

Stromboli, Italy; and Yellowstone National Park. 

Browning's Method 

Here, put 'simply, is Browning's 

method lor forecasting earthquakes 

and volcanoes. 

He.has identified a band of latitude 

around the globe where the tidal 

forces will peak. Within that band, he 

has identified points of' earthquake 

and volcanic activity that may be 

ready to release their subterranean 

energy. 

For each or these active points he 

has estimated the chances that 'the 

tidal forces will trigger an eruption. 

"The triggering Ioree will happen " 

Browning said. "Whether or not 'it 

goes orr depends on whether the gun is 

loaded." 

'The band or latitude runs from 30 

degrees north to 60 degrees north. It 

spans most of the United States, the 

Soviet Union, China and Europe. 

That band is where the tidal pull of 

the sun and moon will be concentrated on Dec. 3 at their highest level in 27 

years, Browning said. That's because 

the moon will be at its closest point to 

Earth in its orbit around the planet, 

and the Earth will be only one month 

away from its closest approach to the 

sun. 

Browning calculates ··what are 

called the "vector sum tidal forces" to 

determine which date is most likely to 

have the triggering effect. 

"This triggering force is very slight· 

Iy higher than previous forces " he 

said. "It will cause earthquake~ and 

volcanoes to go of( around the world 

in this Iatitud~ " 

Browning said he determines which 

faults and volcanoes are ripe lor re· 

lease by studying information gath· 

ered by scientists at each ·location. 

The information has to do with how 

long it has been since the fault erupted and the rate at which energy released by small quakes travels 

through cracks that constantly devel· . 

op in the fault. · 

Browning also believes that one pe· 

riod of high tidal forces can push a 

fault to near !allure and the next peri· 

od year:; later can push it over the 

edge. 

Of his method, Browning said a 

fnend once told him that he " connects· 

the dots" - brings together informa· 

twn that individual researchers have 

long worked with. 

. "I don't know why it took so long to 

figure it out," Browning said. "It's 

r~ally very simple." 

Seismologists' Comments 

. Here's what seismologists are saymg about Browning's forecast and the 

method he used to make it. 

"Invalid" and "ineffective " said 

Brian J. Mitchell of St. Louis U~lversi· ty and Mch C. Johnston of Memphis 

State University, two leading experts 

on the New Madrid Fault. 

When asked about the prediction 

Randall Updike, an official with th~ U.S. Geological Survey, in Reston Va. 

said: "I'd be happy to sit and have a 

drink with you Dec. 3 atop the highest 

hotel in St. Louis." . 

The scientists said previous studies 

or the same e!lects Browning based 

his forecast on have not shown a· correlation between tidal forces and 

ear.thquakes. Such research "just 

hasn't paid off," Updike said. Brown-· 

ing disagrees. 

Mitchell and Johnston said previous 

New Madrid quakes had come at 

times of both low and high tidal 

. forces. Moreover, tidal forces pro-

•duce a relatively small amount of 

stress on the fault, they said. 

"Several other natural processes 

can do this as well or better, including 

weather fronts, heavy rainfall or high 

river stage," Mitchell and Johnson 

wrote June 29 in a memo criticizing 

Browning's method . . 

· . Browning said about aitempts by 

scientists to discredit him, "All I have 

1s· a track record." 

That record inciudes what appears · 

to be a high percentage of successful 

predictions: 

· • The quake in October near San 

Francisco. 

~The Mexico City quake In 1986: 

• The Mount St. Helens volcani~ 

Tom Borgman; Post-Dispatch 

eruption in 1980. 

• California's San Fernando quake 

in 1971. 

In some cases, documents show and 

witnesses say they heard Browning 

make prediCtiOns with specific times 

and locations. 

One seismologisl who has· taken 

Browning more seriously is Stewart, 

or Southeast Missouri State. Stewart 

said he had gone to New Mexico and 

spent hours with Browning to get 

"more understanding of what he is 

doing." 

It's· still possible "that the whole 

thing could be discredited," Stewart 

said. "But it needs to be addressed." 

II Browning's method proves to be 

noUting more than a way to identify a 

latitude with a high geologic risk dur· 

mg a certain period, "that in itself 

would be an invaluable contribution " 

Stewart said. But it "needs to be tho~­ ough l y checked out by many 

scientists." 

Many in the business community 

have put stock in Browning's forecasts 

lor years . .They include of!lcials at 

PaineWebber.Inc., for whom Browning has been a consultant since 1975. 

Roger Spencer, first vice president 

at Paine Webber, said he will not be in 

his 50th·lloor office in downtown Chi· 

cago on Dec. 3. 

"I'n;, going to be on the ground, at 

home, Spencer said. 

In St. Louis, William Galbraith executive vice president oi the N'orth 

American Equipment Dealers Associ· 

ation, says, "This is not some sooth· 

sayer who's come out with some. wild 

prediction." 

Galbraith invited Browning to 

speak at a governor's conference on 

agriculture last December in Osage 

Beach, Mo. That's where Browning's 

forecast llrst made waves in the 

Midwest. · 

"I sure hope [the Dec. 3 forecast] Is 

wrong, but the guy has been incredi· 

.bly close to being right so many 

times," Galbraith said. 
94 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARlHQUAKE 

9-9-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

New Madrid Fault 

ln Many Communities, Preparations 

For Earthquake Are Now A Priority 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff . posit vaults. Some have bought wrenches to put near 

NEW-MADRID, Mo.- A forecast ·qatural gas valves In case they have to turn them off after 

that a major earthquake may strike a;quake. 

in December has Lori Krebs think· ::The forecast Is "bringing some things home to people 

ing a lot these days about . the New who never really thought about these problems," said 

Madrid residents who experienced New Madrid Mayor Dick Phillips. "The majority of people 

the great quakes ofl811-l2. . ate taking It seriously, but· only about 5 percent are 

"If they had known about it ahead b(inglng in groceries, water and actually preparing 

of time, a lot of them probably would t0en1selves." • 

have stayed, like aJot.of us are," said ~ul residents of New Madrid are not panicking, Phillips 

Krebs, who works at the Show Biz s!\d. ·· · 

Video store in New Madrid. ;~'We've lived here all our lives," he said. "We're aware 

"We're staying because it's home," ott~e fault and that eventually we'll have an earthquake. 

she said. 1~ay be tomorrow, It may be next week, It may be 50 

People are abuzz with quake talk y~rs from now." . 

and preparedness plans from Cairo, ~hiUips said he respected Browning's forecast. 

Ill., to Marked Tree, Ark..- the end· Till well aware that other people don·t,·.· he said. "But 

points of the New Madrid Fault. h s ~en right a few times, so you can't disregard the 

The reason: a forecast · by New p diction." · • 

Mexico scientist and business corisul· t the New Madrid Historical Museum, the mood 

tant !ben Browning. Browning has a· ong a flood of visitors from states around the fault 

said that within 48 hours on either 1ges from denial to. hysteria, Said Virginia Carlson, 

side of Dec. 3, an earthquake meas· seum coordinator. 

urtng 7.0 or greater on the Richter orne visitors say they're leaving the area, come 

scale has a 50-50 chance of erupting D!cember. 

somewhere in the fault ~'They're worried that they can't cope with the after· 

The fault erupted with a series of rrilth," Carlson said. 

major quakes in 1811·12~ including at ;1he fault was named after New Madrid, even though 

n9f!e of the great quakes of 1811-12 were centered there. 

least three measuring more than 8.0, Tt town of that day, however, now rests at the bottom of 

scientists say. ' th Mississippi River. It became submerged when the 

Most earthquake specialists have rl r's banks shifted during the-quakes. 

rejected Browning's forecast· as Ii' f,fany of the stores around New Madrid these days have 

diculous. But most people on the. align in the window announcing a town meeting Thursfault line are leSs certain, officialS d:f' where residents can learn how to prepare for an 

and residents . in southeastern Miss'" earthquake. 

ouri and northeastern Arkansas said f,.tter the meeting, officials plan to begin storing food, 

in interviews last week. mfical supplies, water, cots, radios and other items in a 

Many are reacting like Doyle Tart, st !-reinforced building. 

ton, who owns an auto parts store~~ Then, if the need arises, we'll have a place for people 

Marked Tree. : to o," Phillips said. 

"I don't necessartiy go along witlr !Jew Madrid officials aren't too worried about damage 

the dates," Tarlton said. "But wheri to l>ui!dings when a quake strikes. But they are concerned 

there is a quake, and it will happen · a~ut the 20-foot-hlgh dike that protects New Madrid from 

someday, we need to be prepared." ' th~ nv · er . • 

Tarlton admitted to "an· uneasy- If you had high water at that particular time, then the 

feeling" about Browning's forecast! prfssure· on It would ... " Phillips paused and did not 

A tremor in western Tennessee ori ciJ!i'lplete the sentence. He said he doubted whether the 

Aug. 29 that measured 3.4 on the· ri~r would be high in Dec~mber. 

Richter scale didn't help much. ~orne New Madrid residents said others among them 

Many people are taking the forecast hlllo'e the mistaken notion that ·Browning said a quake is 

"very seriously," he said. cet'taln to strike in December. 

Ufelong residents of New Madrid that -anticipation is useful anyway, "because a lot of 

are for the first time actively prepar, pe~ple are talking about it and getting prepared,'' · said 

iilg for a major quake. Lyt)n N. Bock, a lawyer in New Madrid. "I hope people in 

Some have put sleeping bags In st. :Louis and Memphis are paying as much attention as we 

their cars and valuables in safe de· arf" 

~ew Madrid residents have begun storing supplies be· 

ca~se they realize that "if we have an earthquake, most of 

th~ attention will be focused on the .metro areas, and the 

pebple in the country will be lett on our own," Bock said. 

fh Sikeston, officials are in the midst of a series of mass 

public edugition seminars on earthquake preparedness. 

Th)y expect to train at least 10 percent of the city's 30,000 

res(dents. 

~ichael Phelan, director of public safety and a longti"!¢ .advocate of quake preparedness. is grateful to 

Brpwning. 

"Even if he isn't·correct, he's doing a great service for 

emergency preparedness because people are finally· liS· 

terting," Phelan said. "We've made some progress." 

Ciity officials have begun a program to organize neigh· 

borhoods Into 

emergency coop' 

era lives. 

The local · all· 

volunteer chap· 

ter of the Amerl· 

can . Red Cross 

has arranged 

with Sikeston's 

schools and 

churches to 

serve as emergency shelters, 

said LaDona 

DeKriek, chapter chairman. 

"As mucli as 

we want people 

to be self-suffi· 

clent, a lot Of 

people are not 

going to come 

through thi:; 

well," DeKriek 

said. 

Sikeston officials are worried about major natural gas 

pipelines that pass south of town. 

"They could get real cold In Chicago and New York if 

this thing hits in December," Phelan said. · 

In Malden, Mo., officials will move from City Hall to a 

former fire station outside town. There, they will conduct 

business as usual and run eight days- of preparedness 

drills, said Mayor W.M. Johnson. 

City Hall, an old. two-story brick building, is "the kind 

that's predicated to going first" in a major quake, Johnson 

said. 

Police and emergency vehicles will be parked away 

from buildings, in case a quake hits and the structures 

collapse. 

"Most of the people here are used to destructive tornadoes," Johnson said. "They say that If an earthquake 

comes, it'll come. At the same time, they think the drill is a 

good idea." 

Talk of Browning's forecast has become commonplace. 

On a radio talk show recenlly in Malden, a high school 

football coach scoffed at a preseason poll that ranked his 

team high. 

"That's about as believeable as that earthquake predic· 

lion," the coach said, chuck ling. 

Contrary to a news report by the Associated Press late 

last month, motels in New Madrid have not been booked 

completely by out-of-town thrill-seekers. 

Plenty of rooms are available for Dec. 1·5, said rna nag· 

ers at the Cabana Motel -the only motel in New Madrid 

-and the CottonbOll Inn, in Marston. Marston is the town 

nearest to New Madrid. · 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 95 

9-9-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Officials Ponder Closing Schools 

NEW MADRID, Mo. - School officials here wonder 

whether they should cancel classes the first few days of 

December because of a scientist's prediction that an 

earthquake may occur then. 

Ultimately, parents may make the decision for them. 

Scientists are skeptical about !ben Browning's forecast 

of a 50·50 chance for a quake in the New Madrid fault 

between Dec. I and Dec. 5. 

But many parents say they are planning to keep their 

children out of school and maybe even leave town. 

"As a board and administration, we do not place much 

credence in the prediction," said Robert B. PaY,ne, superintendent of the New Madrid County Central School District. "The problem with schools is, it's not what's true so 

much as it is what's perceived to be true." . 

The first two days of that period are a weekend, but the 

final three are a Monday-Wednesday. Some districts in 

southeast Missouri and northeastern -Arkansas -have ·a!-· 

ready-decided!o close on Incise days. · · 

If a major quake strikes during school hours, a large 

fraction of the·casualties would be schoolchildren, federal 

studies of the region show. 

Payne said district officials will have to be practical in 

deciding whether to close schools. 

If most children will be away, "I'm not sure what we'd 

gain by having school," he said. 

Officials have decided to close public schools In East 

Prairie, which sits atop the fault northeast of New Madrid. 

The East Prairie R-2 School District board took the 

action as a precaution because ·;our-buifaings are hazardous for earthquakes," sai!1Judy Lewis, a secretary in the 

district office. The diStrict has about 1,400 students. 

In Sikeston, Mo., public schools are scheduled to be 

open, but St. Francis Xavier catholic School will be closed, 

city !'fficials said. 

School officials in Wilson and Earle, Ark., also have 

decided to close school.. 

Teachers in the South Mississippi County School District 

57 will report to school Dec. 3·5, but the district's 2,000 

students will not, said Frances Little. She Is a secretary in 

the superintendent's office In Wilson, Ark. . . 

Teacher staff development days normally held at ~!her 

times of year have been rescheduled for those days. 

District officials canceled classes because "a lot of our 

parents are concerned," Little said. . 

In New Madrid, district officials are more worried 

about the fact that a quake couid occur at any time :than 

they are about the Dec. 3 prediction, Payne Said. · 

The district has been preparing Itself for an earthquake 

ever since last October's quake In northern california 

brought public _attenl!on to the threa_t. 

"When a neighbor's hoUse burns, everyonestarts ~ead' 

ing th.eir1ire insurance," he said. 

The district's 2,300 students attend buildings ranging In 

age from 4 to 50 years old. The buildings were not 

designed with earthquakes in mind. . 

District officials have attended quake seminars and 

issued a preparedness manual to the staff. A radio system 

has been installed in each building so they can communicate if a quake knocks out phone service. 

They are about to begin stocking school buildings with 

blankets first aid kits and other supplies. Maintenance 

crews wlll attach bookcases to walls and may put plastic 

film on windows to prevent shattering. . 

And the New Madrid schools will soon have the firilt of 

four annual earthquake drills mandated by the Missouri 

Legislature in its last session. - William Allen 

9-10-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Residents Told To Prepare For Days After Quake 

By Shari L Gaddy 

Post-Dispatch Special. Correspondent 

People must be prepared to fend 

for themselves for three to five days 

if a major earthquake disrupts the 

area, residents of Jefferson County 

were told Thursday at a seminar in 

Arnold. 

The advice came from State Rep. 

William McKenna, D-House Springs, 

who helped organize the event. He 

said local governments would take 

that long to respond to the disaster. 

The seminar held at Rickman Auditorium drew more than 2,000 people - far more than the capacity of 

the facility at Fox High School. Arnold police turned away about 500 

people because the auditorium was 

filled. 

"Our purpose tonight is to calm 

people's fears and present a world of 

facts and information to help get 

prepared," McKenna told 

participants. 

Assisting McKenna was a panel of 

14 c:xperts from organizations such as 

utililles, civil defense, medical, 

university and government. 

People were advised to stay put if 

an earthquake hits. If at home, they 

should go to a hallway and avoid the 

''B... . .. rowning's theory does not specifically 

mention the New Madrid fault." 

DAVID STEWART, director for ihe Center for Earthquake Studies at 

Southeast Missouri State Univ.ersity 

kitchen, experts said. If In an office, 

they should get into a hall~ay or 

under a desk. 

Children in school should get under their desks, the experts said. If in · 

cars, people should pull to the side of 

the road and avoid parking under 

bridges and viaducts, experts said. 

After a quake, people should try to 

listen to a radio to find out how 

serious the situation Is, experts said. 

People should have available three 

to five days of food, drinking water 

and emergency supplies, the experts 

said. 

People who leave their homes 

should leave notes saying when they 

left and where they are going, the 

experts said. 

Don't forget to take care of pets, 

experts said. 

Participants watched a video from 

Los Angeles which discussed preparations for an earthquake. It dealt 

with: 

• Preparing houses and mobile 

homes. 

• Collecting emergency supplies. 

• Dealing with the psychological 

shock of the disaster and the disruption of dally life. 

" The video's best feature Is that It 

made people realize that their famIly might not all be together at home 

when an earthquake hits. Contingency plans are Important," said Carol 

Stallman •. Jefferson County's first 

district commissioner. 

David Stewart, director for the 

Center for Earthquake Studies at 

Southeast Missouri State University, 

discussed the widely publicized pre· 

diction of a major earthquake on the 

New Madrid fault on Dec. 3. The 

prediction is derived from a theory 

of !ben Browning of the University 

of New Mexico. 

Stewart said, "Browning's theory 

Is based on the gravitational force 

caused by the movement of the sun 

and moon. These tidal forces will be 

the greatest on Dec. 3 when the sun 

and. moon are pulling In the same 

direction." He said Browning predicted a 50-

50 chanc~ that these tidal forces will 

trigger a volcanic eruption or an 

earthquake of at least 6.0 on the 

Rlch!er Sc&le In territory In the 30 to 

60 degree north latitudes. 

"Browning's theory does_not spe· 

clflcillly mention the New. Madrid 

fault:\ Ill narrowing down the volcanos and fault lines, the New Madrid 

fault Is on the verge of erupting," 

Stewart said. 

An earthquake Is Inevitable In this 

area, ~ewart said. Experts predict a quake f about 6.3 based on archeological historical and geologic data, 

Stewar said. . 

Two~ddltlonal earthquake semi- nars w!l be held In Jefferson County: 7:30 .m. Oct. 15 at Rickman Auditorlu In Arnold and 7:30p.m. Oct. 

30 at Je ferson College in Hillsboro, 
96 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

9-11-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Quaker· State: 

Insurers Face Demand For Coverage 

By John Curley 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

The prediction of an earthquake Dec. 3 

along the New Madrid Fault in southeastern 

Missouri is triggering tremors across the in- surance industry here. 

Many insurance comPanies say demand 

for earthquake insurance has jumped more 

than 50 percent in recent months as home· owners and businesses rush to protect against 

losses from a major upheaval. 

One inSurer is warning that insurance wiil 

get scarce as Dec. 3 approaches. But most underwriters say they will have no problem 

meeting the booming demand. 

"We have no plans to restrict. earthquake 

coverage," said Dave Hurst. a spokesman for 

State Farm Insurance Cos., the nation's larg· est provider of homeowners insurance. "We 

aren't telling people to hurry up and buy 

insurance before it's gone." 

Demand for earthquake insurance rose 

sharply after Oct. 17, when a severe tremor shook the San Francisco Bay area. Two otber 

major quakes- a June 21 quake in Iran that 

killed at least 40,000 people, and a temblor 

July 16 in the Philippines that killed· more than 100 people- have helped keep demand 

high. 

In the St. Louis area, the rush to insure also 

has been spurred by !ben. Browning's prediction of a major upheaval along the New Ma- drid Fault, which runs from northeastern 

Arkansas through southeastern Missouri to the southern tip of Illinois. Browning, a scientist and business consultant from New Mex- ico, has said that an earthquake measuring 

7.0 or greater on the Richter scale bas a 50-50 

chance of erupting somewhere In the New Madrid Fault within 48 hours before or after Dec. 3. · 

'A New Madrid quake measuring 7.6 on the 

Richter scale could kill thousands or people 

and cause $25 billion in damage in 15 to 20 

states, according to the C~ntei l;'(,j>-;E'arthquake Studies in Cape Gi!'~'a $Jf.::W>, The 

earthquake in San Francisco last .yeaMDeas· 

ured 7.1 on the Richter scale.... .. 

Carol J. Rob.ben, an account'. executive at Daniel & Henry Insurance Co. in St. Louis, 

said she has been getting three:ot1out.calls a day from homeowners asking for earthquake 

insurance. A year . ago, she didn't get that many calls in a month. 

Michael Bennett, a branch tiit(i~r.;;~iting 

manager at American Family Insurance. said 

there has been "a fairly sizable increase in 

demand for earthquake insurance Jrom St. 

Louis and other places in the Midwest." 

Corroon and Black or Missouri Inc., a com- mercial insurance specialist, has sent letters to clients reminding them of the Dec. 3 pre- diction and urging them to get· in line for 

earthquake insurance right away . . It .they 

wait the company warns, they may be able to get only partial coverage- or no ·coverage. "We aren't having any trouble now getting 

quotes, but in early November 1rwlltbecome more difficult," said Judy E. Lemond, senior 

vice president. - · .. · · 

Others disagree. They say their. c.oilUJlinies can supply as much earthquake -insurance as needed. · _ .. _ :-.-,; .·, 

"The insurance companies haven't -given 

us any indication that they Will raise iates or that they won't provide coverage -based on 

predictions in the New Madrid . .wne;~ -said 

Scott Sapot, executive vice president at Ber- ry-Lander Insurance Services lriC.ln St.. 'Louis. .. - ..... ... ... , Hank Johnson, vice president. at-Daniel· & 

Henry, said, "We haven't seen a restriction on either personal or commercial i.nsur:-ance." 

Fire Department Takes Precautions 

In Event Tremor Does Strike Area 

By Bill Bryan 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

The St. Lon is Fire Department is gearing 

up for the possibility or an earthquake shaking the city in early December. 

"We're not saying there 

will be an earthquake, but 

if something does. happen and we've taken no precautions, we'd be kicking 

ourselves," Fire Chief Neil J. Svetanics said Monday 

in an interview. 

!ben Browning, a scientist and business consul- tant from New Mexico, 

ha< said that a significant 

quake has a 50-50 chance or erupting some- WheJ:e in the New Madrid Fault on or about Dec. 3. The quake could result in much 

damage in the Sl Louis area. Many other 

scientists have denounced the prediction, 

which has caused some anxiety throughout 

the region. 

"We're taking advantage of the timing of Mr. Browning's predictions to update our training and plans for all emergencies," 

Svetanics said. 

"We've been going over basic things fqr 

dealing not just with earthquakes, but also 

iornados, major storms and bliztards. We're 

trying to educate our employees and beer up training." 

One earthquake-related precaution the 

fire department will take will be to move I 0 reserve pumpers to open areas in mid-November, Svetanics said. "We wouldn't want to get caught with our pants down," he said. If there is no earthquake, the pumpers would go back indoors about the second 

week or December, he added. In the event of a serious earthquake, all _ firefighters would be called to duty, Svetanics said. A third of the city's 630 firefighters are working at any one time. Also, the chief said, firefighters are learning how to draft water from non-pressurized sources, such as swimming pools and ponds. "Fires follow earthquakes like night follows day," Svetanics said. 

The fire department is not the only agen- cy racing tbe possibility or an earthquake. 

"A lot of important people in the emergency field are getting ready," Svetanics said. 

9-20-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Information, Please 

Area Disaster Officials Are Being Swamped 

With Calls On Preparing For An Earthquake 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

Just a year ago, St. Louis County emergency preparedness oHiclals gave a seminar on hOw to prepare for an earthquake. It was sparsely 

attended. 

Now those omcials are getting hundreds or calls each day from people 

demanding the same Information. 

And officials do not have to hold an event. They are getting Invited every- where - to schools, businesses, gov· 

ernment offices and public meetings. 

Their popularity Is the result or a forecast by !ben Browning, a private 

climatologist In New Mexico, who pre- dicts that a major earthquake may occur In ttie New Madrid Fault In December. 

Browning has said that within 48 

houri; on either side of Dec. 3, an 

earthquake measuring 7.0 or greater on the Richter scale has a 50-50 

chance of erupting somewhere In the 

fault. 

Earthquake experts almost unanimously have dismissed the forecast as quackery. But the telephone calls lnodi<:ate many non-scientists feel otherwise, ornclals said, 

County workers have other disas- · 

ters to prepare for, but Dan Freet, . deputy director or the county's omce or Emergency Management, says, "Most of ou~ time now is consumed 

with getting material -[on ·earthquakes] out to people." 

"We're just overwhelmed," said 

Fred Williams, director of the city's emergency management omce. In Monroe County, emergency services 

coordinator George Rlebetlng said hls 

office was "quite busy" responding to requests. Freet estimated the earthquake 

calls at his omce were averaging 

mote than I 00 a day. The city emer- gency management ornce Is getting more lhah' 60 'a day, Wllllams said. 

The Monroe County ornce Is getting 

far fewer. The callers. ask for Information 

about how to prepare their homes and 

families tor an earthquake and what to do during and after one. In sonie Instances, callers will ask 

for lnformatton, give their names and 

home addresses and pass the telephone around to several offJce co· 

workers. ·Mark Gartland, director of the 

county's emergency management office, urged employers In St. Louis County to send for a single copy of the 

ornce's Information packet and mass produce It for their employees. 

Costs for copying, postage and ma- terials have put a strain on the omce's 

budget; he said. · The St. Louis County. omce has 

fielded calls from residents In other counties in Missouri and fire protec· 

!ion districts. Schools and major cor- porations have asked for help In pre- paring contingency plans for an 

earthquake .. Some callers ask about earthquake 

Insurance and soil conditions In spe- cific areas, Freet said. 

At least one local business passed out newspaper clippings on the earthquake forecast with employees' pay- checks. Some schools are sending 

earthquake Information home with 

students. 

The city soon may send earthquake 

Information widely to city residents, 

Williams said. It could be enclosed 

with water bills or statements from 

the assessor's omce. . orncials believe the lnformatton, If 

acted on, will reduce Injuries In an earthquake and help prevent panic 

afterward - whenever an earthquake occurs. "We don't take a position that an earthquake will or will not happen" on Dec. 3, Williams said. "We're here. to educate people about how to prepare, because scientists say one will eventu- ally happen, whether It's Dec. 3 or nine years from now." 

The city and county sent a factfinding group to the San Francisco area following the earthquake there 

last October. After studying California's rea<.ilness for an earthquake, of· 

ficials concluded that the St. Louis area Is ahead In Its earthquake emergency plans and starr but behind In seismic building codes and publlc 

awareness. 

Williams, who has been averaging 

about two speaking appearances a day, said crowds range In size from 20 

to 600. · "They're taking this thing real seriously," he said. 

Beside the iocal offices, those con- cerned about.earthquakes can call: • Center for Earthquake Studies at Southeast Missouri State University In Cape Girard~au, (314) 651-2019. 

• Missouri Emergency Manage- ment Agency In Jefferson City, (314) 

751-9571. • Illinois Emergency Services and 

Disaster Agency In Springfield, (217) 

782-4448. 

City ~fficials Plan 

Training For Quake 

Department heads of St. Louis city 

government . will get special earthquake.tralnlng next month, a city omcia! says. 

Mayor Vincent Schoemehl Jr. has 

ordered all department heads to get 

training In October In what to do durIng and. tt~r an ~rthquake, said Fred 

Wjlllamsi.\he_111rector or-emergency managem.ent.-··· ·· 

The tniJnlng will Include sessions on first aid and search and rescue techniques, Williams said. 

"The Idea Is to have all city employ- ees trained In first aid, how to survive a quake and be helpful to us In search 

and rescue.~. Williams said. 

City ofllclals have been meellng 

regularly In recent weeks to discuss 

how to cope with a possible earth- 'll~~ , 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 97 

9-23-90 

Springfield (Mo.) News-Leader 

Reprinted by permission 

Springfieldians curious about earthquake insurance 

By Mike Penprase The News-Leader 

Prompted by the 1989 San Francisco earthquake and predictions of 

a quake along the New Madrid 

zone, growing numbers of people in 

the Springfield area are asking 

about earthquake insurance, insur- ance representatives say. 

Insurance companies are giving 

the same advice they give for any 

other type of insurance: Shop 

around and read the policy, an official with the state agency that supervises insurance companies said. 

Compared with the potential 

damage an earthquake might cause, 

adding earthquake coverage to existing insurance is a. relatively mi, 

nor investment, said_ Richard Jackson, president of Barker Phillips 

Jackson Insurance Co. 

A rate sheet issued by the Insur- ance Service Office sets earthquake 

insurance rates for homes in Springfield at 27 cents per $1,000 value, 

and at 86 cents per $1,000 for mason- ry hornes, he .said. ___ -

Using ISO rate estimates, earthquake insurance for-a frame home 

valued at $50,000 would be $13.50, 

while the rate for a masonry home 

of equal ·value would be $48. · 

The_ orice difference is IJased on 

experience showing frame homes 

sustain Jess damage than masonry 

homes in earthquakes, he said. · Jackson said his fliUI has received 

10 to 15 inquiries a day lately about 

earthquake insurance. That inter- est has prompted the fliUI to send 

out a mailing to current customers 

informing them of the availability of 

earthquake insurance, he said. 

People thinking about getting 

earthquake insurance -shouldn't 

wait for a warning tremor to sign 

up, Ja<'kson said. Insurance companies will not issue policies for 30 

days after a quake hits, he said. 

Ollis and Company has been getting more inquiries about insurance 

coverage, said Shirley Harman, 

company personal life manager. 

Potential customers aren't. mak- . 

ing panic calls, however, she said. 

"I think they're just more interested in information," she said. 

Statewide, there have been fewer 

inquiries to the Division of Insur' ance than expected, said Myrita 

Holtcamp, division consumer protection supervisor. 

The division got a flurry of inquiries after the Sa{l Francisco quake; 

but few inquiries related to predictions the New Madrid fault might 

snap in December, she said. 

Residents field quake queries 

By Mike Penprase The News'L~ader 

Salina Patel has no idea where 

the story originated - that New 

Madrid's one and only motel was 

already booked for Dec. 3, mostly by 

news reporters who want to see if 

the predicted earthquake will take 

place there. -

Plenty of rooms still are available, said Patel, ·who works at the 

'17-room Cabana Motel on U.S. 61. . Patel and many residents along 

the seismic zone running 120 miles 

from Marked Tree, Ark., to Cairo, 

Ill., have turned dealing with outsiders' curiosity into daily routine. 

At the Missouri Department of 

Tourism information center on Interstate 55 five miles south of town, 

more than half the people who stop 

ask about the earthquake fault, 

manager Jan Farrenburg said. 

"The last person who was in the 

building was 'wondering where the 

fault line was," she said of a Texas 

motorist. 

Curious travelers are told there 

are no easily seen signs .of the fault 

zone and are directed to the local 

mUSeum -to View· itS e8rtliquake exhibit, Farrenburg said. 

But for local people, the prediction by New M~~~ ClimatOlogist 

and business consultant Iben 

Browning that a fault lin~ might 

snap in early .December.is more a topic of conversation than prepara- tion, she said. 

Many living along the zone take 

its existence matter-of-factly, the 

New Madrid-County resident said. 

Because major tremors exemplified by the legendary earthquakes 

of 1811, 1812 and 1895 were so long 

ago, few people have had personal 

experience with them. 

"The small ones we have here 

every day, we don't feel them," Farrenburg said of quakes undetected 

by sensitive seismographs. "''ve 

lived in southeast Missouri all my 

life, and people are used to the little 

quakes." 

That attitude may have changed 

after 300 residents in the town of 

3,200 crowded into the local theater 

recently to hear about earthquake 

planning. 

· New Madrid Historical Museum 

director Virginia Carlson said the 

meeting was an eye-opener. 

Carlson, who contends New Madrid residents should prepare for an 

earthquake whether or not Browning's prediction is correct, said the 

meeting may prompt residents to prepare. · 

"I think they're frightened," she 

said. 

At the same time, some are frustrated at the ·Jack of· coordinated 

effort for disaster preparation, she 

said. 

Residents have been warned but 

haven't ·been told how sanitation, 

medical care and emergency transportation needs might be met in the 

event of an earthquake, she said. 

"I think we're sticking our heads 

in the sand;"· she said. 

Mayor Dick Phillips believes local people will have to rely upon 

themselves for days if a major quake 

hits. 

"This is the thing we've got to get 

across to them - they've got to be 

self-sUfficient,'' he said. ·Residents were told at·the--meeting not to expect help from city, 

county or state agencies, Phillips 

said. 

'That will go to St. Louis and 

Memphis, with little towns such as 

New Madrid left to fend for themselves, he said. 

The city is storing emergency supplies in a steel building that should 
98 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTI-IQUAKE 

9-23-90 

Springfield (Mo.) 

News-Leader (Continued) 

withstand an earthquake, the mayor said. 

Fifty miles further south on I-55 

at Blytheville, anxiety over the 

earthouake prediction his been so intense at least one factory ·v,m shut 

down. · 

Enough employees signed up for 

vacation - or said they would call 

in sick- that it wasn't worth making automotive underhood tubing 

and heating and air conditioning 

ductwork at the' Flexible Technologies plant on Pee, 3 and 4, plant 

superintendent Jimmy Connell said. 

"They're getting away from 

here," he said of many of the plant's 

55 employees who plan to journey 

everywhere from Florida to Fort 

Smith. 

The phnt also is planning tor the 

future, even if Browning's prediction doesn't come to pass, Connell 

said. 

A local firefighter who is conducting earthquake seminars talked to plant employees about safety precautions at work and at home, and 

employees have created earthquake 

survival kits at work, he said. 

At Eaker Air Force Base at the 

edge of town, base officials are keeping quiet about any plans to protect 

the base's B-52 bombers. 

"Suffice it to say we have a con- tingency plan," base spokesman 

Capt. Lane Johnson said. 

Rather . than being concerned 

about having nuclear-armed bombers wrecked by an earthquake, local 

residents seem more concerned 

about the chance a jet fuel pipeline: 

running to the base might crack, 

Flexiple Technologies superintendent Connell said. 

"I w<;>uld venture to guess the 

planes that are capable will _be in 

the air or assigned to different 

bases,"· he said. 

New Madrid museum "director. Carlson said she didn't even know. 

about the New Madrid seismic zone 

until she started working at the little museum sitting on the banks of 

the Mississippi River. . 

She said people tend to be lulled. into complacency because there are_ 

no readily-apparent signs of ·past 

earthquakes. · 

"It's peaceful looking, and you 

really have to tell people there's 

some real bad things going on un- derground," she said. 

Carlson, who hands out disaster 

preparation information at the mu-: 

seum, also sells T-shirts taking a humorous view of having a· major 

fault zone as a neighbor. 

One T-shirt states "It's Our 

Fault." 

Another- a reference to the fact tha~·in the 1811 and 1812 quakes the 

original town slid into the Mississippi River - advises "Visit New_ 

Madrid (While It's Still There)." 

Predictions of quake 

keep Missouri ready, 

waiting for trouble 

By J. Lee Howard The News4..eader 

. : Experts in seismology have approached !ben Browning's projec-

~ons cautiously. 

· Browning, a 72-year-old New 

Mexico climatologist, 8ays there is a 

1j()-50 chance an earthquake will hit 

l)ec. 3 along the New Madrid Fault. 

· David Stewart, director of the 

Center for Earthquake Studies at 

~outheast Missouri State Universif;.Y in Cape Girardeau, has said he 

can neither ref~te nor confirm 

'fhether the New Madrid fault will 

¢awaken this December. 

; "It boils down to his methodology," Stewart said of Browning. "It's 

not fully understood by. any member 

<If the scientific community, myself 

included. What he's doing is not si,mple." 

;··But in a recent memorandum to 

the s~te Emergency Management 

Office, Stewart said Browning 

should nonetheless be taken seri6usly. 

: "He's been correct on not just one 

but several occasions in the past," 

Stewart s;1id. "We have a verifiable 

homerun hitter here with a track 

t:ecord, and now he's up to bat. 

>; ~:rhe question is," Stewart said, 

"is ;he going to hit or strike out?" 

·Art Wallhausen, an associate to 

t)le president of Southeast Missouri 

State, said the school developed an 

e111;thquake plan several years ago 

IJ?d has been updating it each year 

smce. 

· Wallhausen said Browning's projections for the New Madrid fault 

have clearly heightened interest in 

earthquake preparedness, but that 

other experts have for some time 

been predicting a quake at the New 

¥adrid fault. 

"It's generally accepted that 

there's a 50 percent chance for an 

earthquake of a 6.3 (Richter) magni· 

tude by the year 2000," Wallhausen 

said. Chances of an even stronger 

earthquake also are relatively high, 

he added. 

"With those probabilities," Wall· 

hausen said, "we have to be ready 

regardless of a specific date ,projected." 

But at least two northeast Arkansas school districts aren't taking 

any chances. 

Mississippi County School District No. 57 is closing its doors Dec. 

3-4. So is a school district in neigh- · 

boring Poinsett County. 

Harvey Barton, school district 

No. 57 superintendent, said several 

principals from the district went to 

an earthquake seminar in June at 

Arkansas State University in Jonesboro. The principals heard about 

Browning's predictions at the seminar. 

The school district decided to can· 

eel classes Dec. 3 and 4 and hold 

teacher workshops instead. 

"A lot of students and parents 

have a lot of anxiety about this,"· 

Barton said. "We've decided to do 

this as a precautionary measure, be- cause of all the anxiety that's built 

up in the community." 

The Missouri National Guard 

and state and local emergency management officials also are looking 

toward Dec. 3 with some degree of 

anxiety. 

Civil defense and military authorities point to other experts who 

say an earthquake at the New Madrid Fault is imminent. Those interviewed not only were familiar with 

Browning's predictions, they also 

found them a little frightening. 

The Springfield-Greene County 

Emergency Management Office is 

helping to coordinate host shelters 

in the event the quake causes major 

damage to homes in the New Madrid region. Emergency teams, including doctors with the Greene 

County Medical Society, would be 

dispatched to the area to help th.e 

victims of.the quake. · 

"If it doesn't happen; fine," said 

Candace Adams, an . emergency 

management specialist in · the 

Springfield office. "But if it does, 

we'll be ready for it." -.. 

The Missouri National Guard is 

taking a similar posture: The Guard plans to oonduct a 

statewide earthquake emergency 

drill during the first two weeks of 

December. 

The exercise will involve the cooperative efforts of the state Department of Transportation, the Department of Conservation, the 

Department of Public Safety and 

state Emergency Management Of-

. lice authorities. .. 

Col. Jerry Uhlmann, planning operations. and military support offi- cer with the National Guard in Jefferson City, said the drills aren't 

necessarily timed to coincide-with 

Browning's predictions. However, 

he said, other experts also are saying an earthquake will hit this decade. making it incumbent on the 

military to be prepared at all times. 

"Every year the threat is greater," Uhlmann said. The Lorna Prieta 

quake boosted the Guard's interest 

in developing an earthquake disaster strategy, he said. 

But, like Adams, Uhlmann said 

Browning's predictions shouldn't be 

discounted 

"Dr. Browning's projections have 

definitely stirred up a lot of interest," Uhlmann said. "I don't agree 

or disagree with his projections. 

We're not iri that business. 

'"But he's saying indications are 

'" that there will be a peak atthattillle 

(Dec. 3).· We're:certainly not going 

to "discount tho8e projections." 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 99 

9-23-90 

Springfield (Mo.) News-Leader 

Reprinted by permission 

Quake prediction hits wall of doubt 

By Mike Penprase The News-leader 

Scientist lben Browning, who predicts that a major earthquake could 

hit Dec. 3 along the New ·Madrid 

fault, apparently has a lot · of 

believers. 

At one St. Louis area meeting to 

discuss the possible quake, 2,000 

people attended and 500 had to be 

turned away. 

In New Madrid, 300 people 

crammed a theater to h~ar emergency management officials and David 

Stewart, director of the Center for 

Earthquake Studies at Southeast 

Missouri State University. 

However, few scientists are buying Browning's theories. 

"It could happen tomorrow, it 

could happen in a couple ·of decades," Brian Mitchell said of the· 

potential for an· eartl)~e. 

Mitchell is chaitiDail 'of the St. 

Louis University Department of 

Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. 

Seismologists have warned for 

years the New Madrid fault, run- ning frOm Marked Tree, Ark., to 

Cairo, Ill., needs attention. . 

But·Browning, who lives in New 

Mexico, has caught the public's 

attention. · . · · -~ ; . 

BroWning,. 72, has a doctorate in 

physiology, 'gene~ and bacteriology. He .p~jects ··a ·50-50 chance the 

quake will hit Dec. 3, give or take a day. · 

Springfield probably wouldn't get 

the bulk of the shock from a New 

Madrid quake, but emergency man- agement officials say it would get 

about 200,000 refugees from eastern 

Missouri. 

Interest in Browning's prediction 

began after it was reported he predicted last. October's San Francisco area quake. 

Stewart recently spent two days 

with Browning in New Mexico, 

which gave him ~ore insight il;tto 

Browning's methods,. he said. But 

Stewart, who has been critic~ed by some for backing Browning's theories, said he wants to see more research done. 

"All I'm saying is until we have 

his ·complete set of formulae and 

methodology, I'm holding on it," he 

said. "We just can't write him off summarily.'~ 

· Counterparts who .eontend he's 

been wonover.to Browning's views are wrong, Stewart said. 

"I'm not saying I agree with Dr. 

Browning," he said. "I'm saying 

let's find out what he's doing and 

draw our conclusions." 

Gathering data 

Browning makes his projections 

by calculating tidal activity and the 

pressures the sun and moon exert on the earth in a band of latitude taking in not only the New Madrid 

Fault Zone but also fault zones in 

California, Japan and other areas. 

Because that band of latitude 

from 30 degrees north to 60 degrees 

north extends around the earth, 

Browning's prediction also holds for 

earthquake zones in Iran and Iraq, 

for instance, Stewart said. 

Stewart is the only person with a background in earthquake studies 

who supports Browning, said officials with organizations such as the 

United States Geological Survey, 

other earthquake centers and the 

Missouri Division of Geology. 

People need to be aware of and 

prepare for hazards the New Madrid 

seismic zone presents, but shouldn't 

rely on unprovable predictions, said 

Randy· Updike1 associate chief of 

earthquakes, volcanoes and engineering at the Geological Survey's 

headquarters in Reston, Va. 

"It would be helpful if they would 

not rely so much on a soothsayer, 

rather than the people who do this 

kind of work," he said. 

But Browning has said mysticism 

doesn't play a role in his projections. "I don't predict anything," he 

said in an earlier interview. "That's a lot of garbage.'' 

Updike said the Geological Survey's National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council-made up 

of 15 people from universities, state 

geological surveys and Geological 

Survey·- will ·study· Browning's 

methodology along with other prediction methods in two weeks. 

Browning's methods were includ-

'All I'm saying is until we 

have his complete set of 

formulae .and methodology, 

I'm holding on it. We just 

can't write him off • 

summarily.' 

- David Stewart 

Center for Earthquake Studies 

An earthquake of 6.5 magnitude 

could cause $3.6 billion in damage 

to housing alone; An earthquake of over 8.0 in magnitude - similar to 

the quakes of 1811-12 and 100 times more powerful than a 6.0 quake - would cause more than $50 billion 

in damage and tho~ds of casualties in jolts feltfromthe Rockies to 

the Atlantic Ocean, the Geological 

Survey has estimated. 

Protecting . reputation 

If there is no ~arthquake in Deed in the study not so much for their. cember, efforts to get people to pay 

interest amon~ :r:esearchers, b~t'be- attention to reducing .an earth- cause of pubhc ~terest, he said. quake's effect could be hampered in . People who believe t?ey can" pre- the future, Mitchell of St. Louis 

diet . earth9uakes aren t ·that rare,·, university said. 

Updike satd. ' "If it doesn't happen, people will 

He often g~ts ~lephone calls ~m think-science doesn't have anything 

people w~o msis~ they can predtct to tell us," he said. · . 

9uakes V:Ith their sore feet or. by Stewart ·responds to · criticism 

mterpretmg c.loud ~tterns crossmg aimed at Browning by the St. Louis 

th~ sun, Updike said. . and Memphis researchers by saying 

There are a lot of kooks out their own research into tidal influ· 

there," h~ said. "NEPEC .could ences on earthquSkes is flawed. 

SJ_>end their ~hole year lookmg at Missouri Division of Geology dibtzarre stuff. rector James Williams said he is 

; Harsher assessments came from aware some scientists aren't pleased 

ot?,er ~uarters. . . with Stewart's support of Browning, .. We re not accordmg ~my cr~<h- but said the division ·won't take ~1hty, w~ats<?ever to hts proJec- sides. · 

t10ns, said Jill Stevens of the Cen- "Wehaven'texpressedanystrong 

ter for ~arthquake R~search an~ opinion-that Browning is right on lnfo~atlon at Memphis ~tate Um- target, or that he is a crazy loony," 

versitv. . . . he said. Bro~nmg rehes on. met~ods seis- One difficulty .in checking any 

mologtsts have studied s~ce the theories about ,the New Madrid 

1930s, ~d have found wantmg, Ste- zone is that it is difficult to study, vens said. . . . Williams said. 

As for t~e New Madrid zone, ;t~s The intersecting faults, rifts and 

a?d _fal~s m the level of the Missis- arches making up the New Madrid 

sippi R~ver put more stress on .the zone lie under hundreds of feet of 

faults m the Z?ne than do. tidal Mississippi River Valley dirt and 

changes, she said. sand, and there's no reliable way to 

Prepare, experts warn measure stress as it builds, he said. 

Scientists only can measure jolts Alth?u~h t~e . cen~r rejects as they take place, he said. 

Brow_nmg s proJectiOn, 1t stands by While plenty of non-scientific warnmg~ the fault area could move, people have heard Stewart, he said 

at any ttme and that ~ple should he thinks he isn't getting a hearing 

be prepared, Stevens S&ld. . on behalf of B!<>wning because 

The. center supports the estunate Browning isn't a seismologist. · there IS a 40 percent to 60 .percent "Here's a non-scientist who has 

chance t~e fault line could produce. done what they (seismologists) have a damagmg quake of· between 6.0 tried to do and failed " he said. 

and 6.5 magnitude oh the Riehter ' ' 

scale in the next 15 years, sh~·said. 
100 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

9-23-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Panicky Reaction To Quake Forecast Causing Concern_ 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

A . CONTROVERSIAL earthquake 

forecast has been a boon to quake 

preparedn~ efforts. But public 

reaction to it is approaching panic In Missouri and Illinois, experts say. 

They are urging people In both states to 

prepare for a quake not because of the 

December forecast but because a severe 

quake could occur at any time in the next 

several decades. · 

The pubUc reaction is "bordering on the 

unhealthy," said Mark Gartland, director 

of tr1e St. Louis County Office of Emergency Management. 

"It concerns me that it's not going to 

take too much more before people are 

going to be afraid to step out the door from 

Dec. 1 through 5," Gartland said. 

--New Mexic~ sc-ientist !ben-Browningpredicts on those aays a ·so-so-cha·nce of 

an earthquake measuring 7.0 or. greater 

on the Richter scale in the New Madrid 

Fault. The forecast covers 48 hours on 

either side of Dec. 3. 

Scientists who specialize in earthquakes 

- Browning is not one of them - almost 

unanimously have dismissed the forecast 

as quackery •. They stand by their predictions that a severe quake in the fault has a 

50-50 chance of occurring sometime In the 

next decade. 

.The Federal Emergency Management 

Agency estimates that a 7.6 quake at the 

northern end of the New Madrid Fault 

would klll 265 people In St. Louis city and 

county an4 seriously Injure more than 

1,000. It would leave 200,000 people homeless and cause more than $2 billion In 

damage to buildings If lt struck during the 

day. . 

Slightly fewer casl!alties could be expected if the temblor struck at night, when 

more people are In generally safer buildIngs. About. one-fifth of the daytime. dead 

and Injured would be schoolchildren. 

A more powerful bufless likely quake 

- 8.6 on the Richter scale - would klll 

1,400 people and seriously injure more 

than 4,300 in the city and county if it hit in 

daytime. 

Meanwhile, disaster preparedness 

officials have been swamped with phone 

calls from people wanting to know how tb 

prepare themSelves. 

Browning's forecast has aroused "an 

unparalleled level of interest" in earthquake preparedness, said Thomas Zimmerman, an official with the Illinois 

Emergency Services and Disaster 

Agency. 

"We're taking the prediction very seriously only because of the n~ar-panic and 

chaos that could ensue or the business 

interruptions that could ensue if schools 

and businesses shut down" around Dec. 3, 

Zimmerman said. 

Gartland said that if anxiety about.,an 

earthquake continues to increase, it could 

create a "crisis that in itself could cause 

ari emergency," Gartland said. 

But an equally important concern of 

many disaster preparedness officials is 

that interest will w.ane dramatically if December passes without a tremor. 

· Said lllinois' Zimmerman: "If people 

believe that earthquakes can be predicted 

with that level of accuracy, then when the 

earthquake doesn't happen, they will 

think, 'All this for nothing?' " 

But a more "healthy mindset" comes 

from accepting insistence by earthquake 

scientists that specific predictions cannot 

be made. That sets the stage for a more 

rational approach to preparedness, in 

Which people_ CaD- begin to-take sfmple 

steps to prepare themselves and their 

homes, schools and workplaces, he said. 

But•if they panic before a quake happens, they may decide to do nothitu~. 

"The mindset is everything," :limmerman said. "It determines whether the public will take an active approach to earthquake preparedness.or a panic 

approach." . 

Fred Williams, director of the' St. Louis 

city emergency management office, said 

be fears that people won't be prepared for 

a quake when it finally does happen_ if 

they let their guard down after a quakeless December. 

Williams doesn't talk ·about Bro~ning's 

forecast in his public presep.tations, although it invariably comes up in questions 

by the audience. 

Said. St. Louis County's Gartlaqd: "It'~ 

that letdown that I don't think we can 

·afford as a community. Everything we did 

even before the San Francisco· quake 

would be gone, and we'll have to walt till 

the next shake." · 

few people in thisarea paid serious 

attention to earthquakes until recently. 

One year ago last Wf?ek, St. Louis County 

marked earthquake awareness week with 

news conferences. oublic seminars anti 

disaster drills. The activity generated little interest, officials said. 

People began to tune in after the Oct. 17 

earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area. 

The Browning prediction has triggered 

unprecedented interest. 

The deputy a1r~ctor or tne county's 

emergency management office, Dan 

Freet, said information requests were not 

only more numerous, bnt callers expressed more concern. 

"Peopl~ are saying, 'I'm really worried 

about what the school i~ going to do with 

my child,' " Freet said. "It's beginning to 

dawn on them that there is a risk." 

Officials don't hide the fact that they're 

capitalizing on public "interest in quake 

preparedness. 

Illinois has rescheduled its earthquake 

awareness week to the first week of November. It had been scheduled for February 1991. 

"Our approach is, let's look at this as an. 

occasion for getting prepared, whether an 

earthquak~fhappens tomorrow, .in Decem--

ber or anytime thereafter," Zimmerman 

said. 

Missouri officials expect more than 

100 communities to take part in a quake 

preparedness drill on Dec. 1 and 2 run by 

the Missouri Department of Public Safety. 

R.D. Ross; director of the Missouri 

Emergenc}' Management Agency, said his 

agency has been "taking full advantage" 

of the growing concern. 

· "The tact is that seismologists for a 

number of years have said that the proba~ 

bilities of a medium to major earthquakf; 

in the next 10 to 20 years was consider• 

able," Ross said. "But we are concern~d 

that preparation and not panic be th6 

theme of the rest ot 1990." 

· Gartland said his office was "trying not 

to blow it out of proportion. It's a verj 

touchy situation." -

Business people have called Gartland 

and asked if they should close down ori 

Dec. 3, a Monday. He tells them that tt 

they're going to do that, they should also 

close on Dec. 4 .and 5, the last two (fays 

encompassed by Browning's forecast. 

"When they're told that, they become 

leery about closing their operations f()r 

three days," he said. "Then they ·realize 

that there's no telling when an earthquake 

can happen." · ·· 
APPENDIX C-TIIE PREDICTION IN TilE PRESS 101 

New Odds: 

9-23-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Chance Of New Madrid Quake Lowered 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff · 

THE CHANCES for earthquakes in the New Madrid Fault may be less than previously believed, 

scientists reported Friday in Science magazine. 

But the researchers stressed that those chances are 

still significant and simply provide more evidence that 

the central United States should prepare for an eventualquake. 

In most cases, the new estimates are less than half of 

the widely cited standard probabilities for earthquakes in the range of 6 and 7 on the Richter scale. 

The lower figures should reduce concern about 

quakes "not at all," said Gilbert Bollinger of the U.S. 

Geological Survey and the Seismological Observatory 

at Virginia Tech, in Blacksburg, Va. He co-authcred 

the paper on earthquakes in the eastern United States 

with S.P. Nishenko of the National Earthquake Information Center, in Denver. 

Nishenko and Bollinger rate the chances for a 

quake 6.0 or greater at 13 percent by the year 2000 and 

50 percent by \2040. Chances for a 7.0 quake are 2 

percent by 2000 and 8 percent by 2040, they said. 

The most widely cited ·probabilities so far were 

published in 1985 in the Journal of Geophysical Research by Arch Johnston, director of the Center for 

Earthquake Research and Information at Memphis 

State University; and Susan Nava, now at the Universi· 

ty of Utah. · 

• JohliStOn and Nava estimated the chances for a 6.0 

or greater quake by the year 2000 at between 40 to 60 

percent. That estimate has been boiled down to 50 

percent by ~me scientists. The chance for a 6.0 quake 

by 2040 is 90 percent, they said. 

For a quake of 7.5 or greater, they rate the chances 

at roughly 10 percent by 2000 and 25 percent by 2040. 

The different figures resulted from the different 

methods used by each group to make the estimates. 

The main difference Is that the Johnson-Nava methOd assumes that stress building in the fault since the 

last earthquake can influence lbe timing of the next 

one and the Nishenko-Bollinger method doesn't. 

Although the groups disagree on the best meth· 

od, they agree that more research Is needed to better 

understand the New Madrid Fault. · 

"In one sense, you could see the two sets as an upper 

and lower range of probabilities;" Joh~ton said In a 

telephone interview. "Either one you take, the probabilities are significant." Bollinger agreed. 

Scientists are unsure which set of probabilities 

they'll use when talking to the public about earthquake 

risk. 

David Stewart, director of the Center for Earth· 

quake Studies at Southeast Missouri State University, 

in Cape Girardeau, said he will have to study the new 

estimates before making a decision. 

"The latest paper is not necessarily the best," Stewart said. "Unless I can see a compelling reason to buy 

their assumptions, I'm going to go with Johnston." 

Quake Concern Worries 

.Residents Of Tiny Town 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Stall 

TYRONZA, Ark. 

CONCERN ABOUT the possibility of 

an earthquake in. December has 

risen to the level or panic among some 

residen.ts here, says Mayor Ray 

Brewington. 

''There's talk around here that some 

people are going to take their money 

out or the llank," Brewington said. 

The reason: !ben Browning's forecast 

or a 50-50 chance for an earthquake in 

the New Madrid Fault around Dec. 3. 

Tyronza is a farming town of about 

800 In northeastern Arkansas near the 

southern Up of the New Madrid Fault. 

Brewingto·n said he was urging people who are considering a withdrawal 

not to do so because they could be easy 

prey for thieves poised to take advantage of the panic. 

Whether they withdraw from the 

bank or not, "the majority or people I've 

talked to say they're going to leave," 

Brewington said. · 

"We have 200 tremSrs a year, but 

before this people never did lhirik about 

it," Brewington said. 

The president of the Tyronza Bank, 

Charles F. Luter, said no such withdrawals have been made. 

"I don't expect much of thai to take 

place," Luter said .. 

Residents are more concerned about 

tornadoes than earthquakes, he said. In 

any case, the bank's vault, with two, 

foot-thick steel and concrete walls, Is 

the safest place around. The money also 

Is Insured by the federal government. 

Mayor Brewington is appealing to 

residents to "use common sense and 

prep~re for an ·earthquake, whenever It 

comes. There's ~o need to panic." 

But quakes like a minor tremor 

centered In western Tennessee 

Aug. 29 seem to be making believers out of people In Tyronza. 

"The general public talk Is, If we 

keep having these tremors, the 

man [Browning] knows what he's 

talking about," Brewington said. 

Some peopie are taking their 

families out of town for first week 

of December, Brewington said. 

Like many towns along the fault, 

Tyronza Is buying electrical generators and storing medical and other supplies. · 

"We're eventually going to have 

a quake, so It's money that won't be 

wasted," Brewington said. 
102 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTIIQUAKE 

9-27-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Quake Rattles Region 

Temblor Leaves Behind Little Damage, 

No Injuries, But Brings On New .Jitters 

By William Alleo Olllle Posi-Oiapaldl St.fl 

Somewhere beneatb southeastern 

Missouri, the Eartb shrugged Its sboul· 

ders Wednesday. Tbe result an earth· 

quake measuring· 4.6 on lhe Rlcbter 

scale. M quakes go, thls one went quickly 

and with unte russ. It wu brief, and 

caused no Injuries and little damage, 

officials said. 

But It sent jltten: through a region 

already made jumpy by predictions ol a big quake along the New Madrid 

• HAZELWOOD DRill Ia a clreaa 

rehearsal Page 12A 

• INSURANC! AGENTS are kept busy_:_ Page 12A 

~ DliTCKTOWN, MO~ _.,. "'from lh• ahalte--Pege 13A 

Fault In December. 

Tbe quake struck at 8:19 a.lh., sal6 

St. Louis University's Sean·'f1111mas 

Morrissey, who pegged the scale at 4.6. 

Tbe quake's epicenter - about I 0 

CttJes Shaken By Quake ~ . 

ILLINOIS ,~·· 

ARKANSAS 

Karen.EishoulfPost-Dispatch 

S,G:ott Michell, a St. Louis University geophysics graduate student; holding a reading of Wednesday morning's quake. 

miles southwest or Cape Girardeau -

was not on the New Madrid Fault but 

was a lew mila west. said Morrllley, 

a geophysicist 

Anotber tremor sbook the Cape Gi· 

rardeau area about 12 hours later, 

reglslerina a~t 3 on the Rlchler 

scale, accordln& to ornclals In Cape 

Girardeau. The earthquake's rumhllnp traveled thnl\l&llseven stales - Mlllourl, 

Illinois, Arkansas. lncl.laDa, Kentucky, 

Ohio and Tennessee. 

Tbe qude caused minor damqe Ill 

Quake 

From page one 

. i~ Wednesday's quake fell far short, 

it had its moments. In Perry County, 

Mo . sheriffs dispatcher Ryan Worthington had a report that the second 

rt'qor in one bouse had pulled away 

ftom the wall about a fool . 

.. Elsewhere, the quake spilled cot- · te·e: rattled windows and gently shook 

co.u~hes and chairs. 

_. Zimda Cepicky of south St. Louis 

County said she knew right away .what 

tJ;le rattling window in her dining room meanl · 

:;/·I had just made a fresh cup of 

coffee and had sat down at the kitchen 

table," said Cepicky, wt10 lives off 

!11a~tis Road. "111Y dishes ra!Ued, my 

!Htchen table vibrated and my chair 

vjbrated. It was just enough shake in 

my .cup that it spilled my coffee." 

·•.Others fell little.or nothing. Gladys 

Reams, 50, who lives at 5225 Lotus 

Avenue in north St. Louis, said that 

only when her daughter called did she 

r.ealize that she had sat through an filrthquake. · 

! More than anything, the quake 

~eemed to rattle nerves. New Mexico's Browning had said some quakes 

might occur on Oct. 9 or Nov. 6., in 

l!-dvance of the big one he's saying 

might happen in December. l But Wednesday's tremor "was just 

another earthquake," said William 

$chmieder, a geophysicist with the 

National Earthqua~e Information 

small loWliS aroulld the epletllter, 

bruklna dlslles, knocklna pictures ott 

walls and pllclltna cooteots from cabl· nets and Ill elves. · 

Near Kelso, Mo .. the quake broke 

several pieces ol one woman's collec· 

lion or 30o ceramic pip. · 

''There wu a rumbllna noise like a heavy truck," said DeVtd Stewart, dl· 

rector or the Center lor Eartbquake 

Studies at Southeast Mlslourl State 

Unlverslty.lo Cape Girardeau. 

Stewart. who was In a clasroom at tlle Ume, saki, "I sbouted. 'It's ao 

eartbquake,' and everybody ducked 

under their clab." 

Sdeotl:sll qned lllal ... edDaday'l 

tremor llad IIOCillna to do wtta the 

December predldloa, made by !ben 

BroWDina of New WezXo. 

Brownloa llu forecast a *~0 

Cbance or an earthquake~ at 

least7.0 110111 the New Wad.rid Fault 

between Dec. I aDd Dec. 5. 

MOil ICienllsts wbo spedallze La 

earthquakes bave dlsDUIIed BrownIna's forecast u ricllculous. Tbey pot 

the dlance of I q\IUe meesurtna at 

least e.o at *50 10met1mt to 01e oat decade. 

SHQU.UE 

Center in Golden, Colo. 

And St. Louis University's Morrissey said: "We love the fact that everybody is paying attention to earthquake 

preparation - but this Chicken Little 

stuff has got to stop." 

Although Wednesday's quake was 

off the New Madrid .Faull proper, it 

fell within the fa.uli. zone. Each year, 

about 200 measurable quakes occur in 

that zone, Cape Girardeau's Stewart 

said. But only about three a year pack 

enough power to be felt. 

In !act, before Wednesday, three 

were fell this year: a 2.8 quake on Jan. 

9, a 3.1 on Aug. 7, and a 3.4 on Aug. 29. 

Said Stewart: "We expect them every now and then. When they happen, 

they normally mean nothing." 

Paul Kesterson, assistant chief of 

the Cape Girardeau Fire Department, 

said the tremorWedne5day night lasted only a few seconds. There were no reports of damage: · · 

:·u was just. another tremor," .he 

said .• "It made iis more aware of what 

we are sitting on." 

· Although the morning· quake was 

relatively minor, it was the second 

largest' in the New Madrid Faull zone 

this century, said Stewart. The largest 

- 5.0 ~hit In 1976 and was centered 

near Marked Tree; Ark. 

Wednesday's· quake - Stewart 

called It a "little old earthquake" -

did nothing to relieve any stress in the 

New Madrid Fault zone, he said. 

·. ,(quake of magnitude 7.1 -In tine 

with Browning's projection - would 

be about 3,000 times more powerful 

than a quake .of 4.6. 
APPENDIX C-TI-IE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 103 

9-27-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by pennission 

EARTHQUAKE SHAKES SEVEN,STATES 

Rattled: Nerves And Buildings 

Are Shaken At EpiceilteP 

By Paula M. Davenport 

Post-Dispatch Special Correspondent 

DUTCHTOWN, Mo.- It lasted only 

seconds, but it took hours for 61-yearold Postmaster Mary Amos to recover. 

Amos was quietly sorting mail for 

Dutchtown's 75 residents Wednesday 

morning when time stood still - and 

everything else began shaking. 

"I looked at my watch, because we 

usually have to file a report when we 

have an earthquake," Amos said from 

Dutchtown's post office, located near 

Whttewater, the village that scientists 

at Southern Illinois University at Carbo~dale think was lhe earthquake's 

eptcenter. Both communities are just 

south of Cape Girardeau. 

"The windows shook, the mailboxes 

shook and my scales shook " Amos 

sai_d. "I thought it was never 'going to 

qutt I was .really fright~ ned. It took 

me until noon tor my nerves to settle 

down a little bit" 

Charlie Schwartz, a Scott County 

farmer, said he had been out surveying property near Cape Girardeau 

when the ground started. to· sway. He 

glanced up at a Christmas star atop a 

nearby 90-foot grain silo. 

"The star was shaking about a toot 

We couldn't see the silos shaking," 

Schwartz said. "I know one thing: The 

cattle ran out of the bam as soon as 

the ground started shaking." 

At Dutchtown's Smith Shop - a 

combination bait shop, gas station, liquor store and deli - the earthquake 

was the main topic of conversation 

among Wednesday's shoppers, said 

owner Voyann Smith. 

"My mom just gave me two checks 

yesterl)ay to get earthquake insurance 

on the store and the house," Smith 

said with a laugh. "With this today, I'm 

sure I'll get insurance." 

The quake "rocked" Dutchtown resident Fred Coleman's house trailer, 

jarring loose a heavy antique lumber 

saw that was hanging on the living 

room wall. 

"It pulled the nails right off," he 

said. ''I'm never going to hang it again. 

I've got two little girls, and it's a little 

dangerous." · ::-

But in nearby Whitewater, Dave 

Lewis, manager of Buchheit Grain Fa· 

cility, downplayed the temblor. 

"If I had one of these grain bins fall 

over and had 300,000 bushels of wheat 

out in the street, then I'd have something to talk about," he said. 

That kind of talk won't pacify 

Dutchtown's Lis Kraemer, who fears a 

prediction that an earthquake will rat· 

Ue the region in December. 

"I'm going to Milwaukee for two 

weeks [in December]. I'm not staying 

here," Kraemer said. 

9-29-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by pennission 

Quake Videotape On Shaky Ground people can see the man and judge for 

themselves whether the man is 

By Bill Smith credible." 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

The director of the Missouri Department of Natural Resources cautioned the public on Friday to be wary 

of buy~ng a videotape that he says 

capttahzes on the projeCtion of a major earthquake in early December in 

the New Madrid Fault 

" ... I he probability of a 

significant quake 

occurring on or about 

Dec. 3 is not greater 

than any other day,. "Consumers who might consider 

purchasing this videotape should be aware that fixating on one day cannot G. TRACY MEHAN 

substitute for constant, rational earth- Natural Resources director 

quake preparedness," said G. Tracy 

Mehan, director of the department 

Mehan said the tape consists of an 

interview with !ben Browning, a New 

Mexico scientist-and business consultant Browning discusses the possibili· 

ty of a strong quake occurring in the 

fault about Dec. 3. 

Browning said he gets a share of the 

profits from the .tape's sale. Profits 

will go into a trust fund sei up for two 

handicapped grandchildren, he said. 

An advertisement marketing the 

videotape ran Wednesday in the PostDISpatch and in the Memphis Corninercial-Appeal. 

"Dr. Browning's theory and meth· 

odology are considered unproven by 

the U.S. Geological Survey; Dr. James 

H. Williams, the state geologist and 

director of the Department of Natural 

Resources' Division of Geology and 

land Survey, and by several noted 

seismologists," Mehan said. 

In a telephone interview from his 

office in Sandia Park, N.M., on Friday 

Browning said he was unaware that 

the tape was being marketed through 

newspaper ads to the public. 

"I am completely divided, In my 

mind, about the virtues of the advertisement," Browning said. He said he 

had been aware the tape was being 

sold to business leaders. 

Browning said he has been a "little 

distressed" -about-the publicity surrounding his projection. But, he said, 

"I'm hoping it will do the state of 

Missouri some good." 

The tape, a 30-rninute version for 

$39 and a 100-rninute version for $99, 

is being sold by a company In Palm 

Springs, Calif., called Tanstaafl 

Communications. 

Tanstaafl stands for There Ain't No 

Such Thing as a Free Lunch, said.Tanstaafl spokesman Eric Watson.' Watson, president of an environmental 

equipment company, said the tape "is 

not a ripoff. 

"I could show you a stack of letters 

on my desk· saying .'thank you for 

warning us and our families.' " 

Watson said the tape is an interview 

he conducted with Browning in February. "The tape is being offered so that 

Browning and Watson said the tape 

was made for distribution to the 

world's business community. Browning said he made the tape at a time 

when he thought he would be dead 

within a month because of a serious 

illness. 

Browning said the tape provides no 

information on how families should 

prepare for an earthquake. 

The newspaper advertisement 

quotes David Stewilrt, director of the 

Center for Earthquake Studies at 

Southeast Missouri State University in 

Cape Girardeau, as calling Browning 

"perhaps the most Intelligent -person 

I've ever met" 

Stewart, Watson said, "is far more 

knowledgable about Dr. Browning. 

earthquakes and the risks than this 

Tracy fellow." • 

Stewart could itot be reached for 

comment Friday. 

"The probability of a significant 

quake occurring on or about- Dec. 3 is 

not greater than any other day," Mehan.said. 
104 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

9-30-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

COMMENTARY 

A Qnake On Dec. 3? Don't Bet The Farm 

Prediction By So-Called Expert Stirs Unnecessary Fears 

By Douglas A. Wiens 

There was an undercurrent of fear 

in the elderiy voice on the phone: 

"Do you think I should leave town 

because of the earthquake that is coming on Dec. 3?" As stories about an earthquake appear on the front pages of news- papers across the Midwest' and reports 

circulate about schools and businesses 

closing on that date, the number of those 

phone calls increases. 

EaJ1hquake experts across the co1.1ntry 

consider this "prediction" ridiculous and 

unscientific, but our message is obviously not getting through to the public. 

Iben Browning, a business consultant 

with no prior experience in earthquake 

studies, started th.e uproar. He claims 

that on Dec. 3, there is a 50 percent 

chance that tidal forces resulting from 

the pull of the sun and the moon will 

trigger an earthquake, measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale, along the New Madrid 

Fault near the southeastern border of 

Missouri: Such an earthquake would 

damage large portions of Missouri, Ar· 

kansas, Tennessee and Illinois, including 

the cities of Memphis and St Louis. 

Years of research by earthquake ex- perts show that Browning's prediction is 

unfounded; These studies conclude that 

earthquakes occur just as often when 

tidal forces are low as when they are high. This is not surprising, since tidal 

forces are very small compared to other 

forces that can affect faults. For exam- ple, a change in the water table from a rainstorm will exert much more force on the fault than tidal forces. 

PeriodS of unusually large tidal force occur frequently, including several 

times earlier this year, without the dire 

consequences that Browning foresees. 

The earthquake near cape Girardeau on Wednesday, far from supporting Browning's prediction, actually provides evidence against it, since it occurred when 

tidal forces were small. 

Although Browning claims his prediction is based on science, he provides no reason for singling out the New Madrid zone rather than other fault zones. Tidal 

forces will be at a maximum on Dec. 3 

throughout most of the northern hemi· 

sphere, and many other fault systems 

have ·a much higher likelihood of an earthquake. Why choose New Madrid? · Browning's alleged record of predicting earthquakes and his reputation in the 

financial community are given as evidence to support his forecast But n!ost of 

the so-called evidence for his success consists of offhand remarks by Browning, and friends' hearsay reports. No one knows how many times he may hare 

been wrong. In most cases there is little 

hard evidence that his predictions actually were made prior to the earthquakes. 

This kind of evidence, often used to support the predictive powers of astrologers 

and charlatans, is hardly enough to war· rant closing schools and businesses. The public should disregard all predictions about the specific date that an earthquake will occur. No one can make 

such predictions. Though scientists have 

Investigated many different factors that 

could signal an impending quake, none 

has proved reliable. Research is still be· 

ing done, but no detectable forewarning 

has yet been identified. We m~y never be 

able to pin down the time, place and size 

of earthquakes accurately enough to permit emergency measures to be taken. 

On the other hand, progress has been 

made in long-term earthquake predictions. The Lorna Prieta earthquake 

which caused considerable damage in 

the San Francisco Bay area last fall is a prime example. During the mid-1980s, 

several research groups identified this 

fault segment as particularly likely to cause a large earthquake within the next 

20 to 30 years. 

For the New Madrid zone, there is less 

data to constrain such estimates because 

there are fewer earthquakes and the 

fault is deeply buried. Various estimates 

suggest a 13 percent to 63 percent chance 

of an earthquake measuring 6.0 within 

the next 10 years. Such a quake would cause moderate damage near the earthquake location but would be much small- er than the catastrophic New Madrid 

earthquakes of 1811 and 1812. 

Tli.e near-hysteria that has developed over such a groundless prediction is startling to those of us who study earthquakes daily. Apparently, wide news coverage has validated Browning's prediction in the minds of the public, despite 

what scientists are saying. The true mo· tives for Browning's prediction may have 

been revealed recently when ads began 

appearing asking people to pay $100 for a tape describing Browning's prediction. 

The tragedy is that innocent people have 

been needlessly scared in the process. 

The one good effect of Browning's prediction is increased concern for earth· 

quake safety. But the danger is that when 

Dec. 3 passes without an earthquake, the 

danger will be forgotten. One can only 

hope that when ill-conceived but well· 

publicized predictions such as Browning's fail to come true, the public will still 

believe that planning for an earthquake 

is necessary. 

Douglas A. Wiens, professor of earth 

and planetary sciences at Washington 

University in St. I.ouis, has studied earth· 

quakes worldwide. 
APPENDIX C-11-IE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 

10-1-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Shake Treatment: 

Quake Simulator Draws 

Many To Science Center 

By Phil Linsalata 

Of the Post-Dispatch StaH 

The earthquake simulator at the St. Louis Science Center 

in Forest Park got a workout Sunday afternoon as visitors 

searched for an answer to a question posted nearby: 

"The New Madrid Earthquakes- 1811, 1812- Could it 

happen again?" 

After Wednesday's earthquake, centered about 10 miles 

from Cape Girardeau, the question weighed on the minds 

of those at the exhibit Sunday. The real earthquake apparently served to whet the appetites of people like Gary and 

Lisa Rich, who felt the tremor clearly while at jobs near 

their home in West Frankfort, Ill. 

"I'm very worried about an earthquake, because we 

know now how fast they happen - you don't have time to 

plan," said Lisa Rich. 

Her husband said Sunday's simulated earthquake "is just 

what the earthquake felt like on Wednesday - I was 

amazed." 

Part of a standing exhibit on earthquake science, the 

simulator duplicates ground movement "<luring moderate to 

heavy quakes. A video representation of possible destruction accompanies the movement of the platform, which 

measures about 18 inches in diameter. 

Lynne Nelson, assistant manager for services at the 

Science Center, said attendance has been up sharply since 

the earthquake last week. Janet Iggulden, community relations director at the center, said inquiries from schools and 

teachers also increased after the quake, which registered 

4.6 on the Richter scale. 

On Sunday, a steady stream of people tried out the 

simulator to get a feeling for the disaster. 

Lisa Anzalone, 13, was there hoping to convince h~ 

family that !ben Browning's controversial prediction thaia· 

major earthquake may occur along the New Madrid fault 

on or about Dec. 3 is a matter of serious concern. 

She thinks she should stay home in Maryland Heights 

with her parents, her brother and sister on Dec. 3. 

"! would like to know my family's OK," she said. 

Her mother, Sandy Anzalone; is a speech pathologist in 

the Ladue School District. Her mailbox at work seems to 

carry a daily bulletin on earthquake readiness, she said. 

"The students are concerned," she said. 

Her husband, Jerry, is also concerned. But he is more 

worried about public hysteria. He thinks educators and the 

media have unnecessarily frightened his family.· · 

., ''I'm sure we'll have an earthquake," he said. "But as far 

!B predicting when - that's absurd." 

"This is just terrifying the children, that's all," he said. 

·But it is not just the children who are frightened. 

Adam Collins of Creve Coeur said he was drawn to the 

Science Center exhibit after "hearing so much" about the 

threat of an earthquake. He said he is particularly worried 

about being away on business and finding himself cut off 

from his wife, Mary. 

"Suppose I'm out of town, and the bridges are knocked 

out. How am I going to get home?" 

Mary Collins, a veteran of previous earthquakes, remains more cool than her husband. "Earthquakes don't 

bother me," she said. ''I'm more worried about a tornado." 

Science 

Wake Up, East 

And Midwest 

The next Big One may not 

hit California after all 

T he sleepy cotton fields around New Madrid, Mo. (pop. 3,400), convey no 

sense of seismic menace. Yet scientists say 

the area is potentiallyo_ne·ofthe most-dangerous earthquake zones in the world. 

Early in the past century an unseen fault, 

obscured by tons of sediment, unleashed a 

fearsome trio of tremors-each as powerful, some say, as the earthquake that virtually destroyed San Francisco in 1906. The 

eyewitness accounts read like the tall tales 

of Baron Munchhausen. The ground rippled with waves as though it were an 

ocean. The Mississippi River raged with 

waterfalls and rapids. Fountains of sand 

erupted in gritty geysers. Shock waves, 

pulsing outward for hundreds of miles, 

wrecked boats in the Charleston, S.C., 

harbor, cracked masonry in Cincinnati, 

and caused church bells to peal and buildings to shake as far away as New York City 

and Boston. 

Today the fault at New Madrid remains 

active, regularly generating small, unnoticeable earthquakes and, from time to 

time, palpable jolts. Such quakes usually 

do not stir more than passing interest. But 

last week residents of southeastern Missouri snapped to attention when a moderate earthquake, rated 4.6 on the Richter 

scale, rattled windows, spilled coffee and 

broke ceramic figurines. Reason : the 

earthquake followed a much publicized 

prediction that the fault is likely to produce 

a major shock come Dec. 3, and many people feared last week's tremor could be a 

precursor. The prediction, which has made 

its way into several newspapers, was the 

work of Iben Browning, a New Mexico climate consultant, who based his forecast on 

an .analysis of the gravitational pull of the 

'un ;,nd moon. Many seismologists, wor105 

10-8-90 

Time Magazine 

Copyright 1990, The Time, Inc., Magazine 

Company. Reprinted by permission 

: ried that public concern could degenerate 

into panic, have denounced it as unscientif-

. ic hocus-pocus. At the same time, they 

• agree that the New Madrid fault, which 

stretches over 225 km ( 140 miles), poses 

serious long-term risks, especially to the 

: nearby cities of Memphis and St. Louis. 

' California has adopted strict building 

codes to limit earthquake damage, but no 

other area is so well prepared. If hit by 

large shocks, the unreinforced highways 

and bridges of the Midwest and East could 

collapse. Solid houses of brick and stone 

might as well be made of playing cards. 

"The infrastructure in this part of the 

country has never been tested by a major 

quake," says Arch Johnston of the Center 

for Earthquake Research and Information 

at Memphis State University. Fortunately, 

when the earthquakes of 1811 and 1812 occurred, the New Madrid region was too 

sparsely populated to suffer significant 

damage or injuries. A modern-day replay, 

however, would make the quake that 

shook San Francisco last year seem tame. 

That tremor measured 7.1 on the Richter 

scale. In contrast, the big quakes that rumbled forth from New Madrid may have exceeded 8.0, or about 10 times that strong. 

Earthquakes frequently occur along 

the boundaries of continental plates, huge 

sections of the earth's crust that "float" on 

a--mass -of superheated -rock. · California's 

·San Andreas Fault, for instance, marks the 

di•-iding line between the North American 

and Pacific plates, which are slowly slipping past each other. But the New Madrid 

fault lies in the middle of the North American plate, seemingly far from harm's way. 

Why do earthquakes occur in such an outof-the-way spot? By analyzing seismic 

data, scientists have concluded that the 

New Madrid fault is a failed rift, or break, 

in the North American plate. Had it progressed further, the embryonic gap might 

have created a body of water like the Red 

Sea, which is slowly widening into an 

ocean. But hundreds of millions of years 

ago, the Midwestern rift stopped growing. 

The New Madrid fault today simply marks 

a weak spot in the thick midcontinental 

crust, which periodically ruptures under 

the pressure exerted by the migrating 

North American plate. It could take 500 to 

1,000 years for enough force to accumulate 

to trigger a really big quake. 

The area around the New Madrid fault 

is one of several known earthquake zones 

east of the Rockies. In 1755 Boston experienced a severe jolt, as did Charleston in 

1886. Sooner or later a major quake is going to hit these areas again. And unlike the 

Western U.S., where hot rock close to the 

surface provides a squishy, shock-absorbing cushion, the middle of the continental 

plate is cold, hard and thick. Like their 

precursors in the past century, the next 

large quakes to strike in the Midwest or 

East are likely to resonate far and wide, 

like giant hammers hitting a huge block of 

steel. -By J. Madeleine Nash/Chicago 
106 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

10-12-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission 

of The Commercial Appeal 

Quake drill, fears 

crack into bigtime 

network 1V news 

By Michael Lollar The Commercial Appeal 

The national airwaves are vibrating with news of a predicted ~rthquake along the New Ma- drid fault, including a live NBC 

TDday show interview Thursday 

and network reports on the 

_earthquake drill that ends in 

Memphis this afternoon. -1)r. Arch Johnston, head of the 

10-14-90 

center for Earthquake Research 

and Information at Memphis 'State University, was inter- !~iewed by Deborah Norville 

Thursday for the Today segment. 

.. · And Don Wood, planning officer for the Memphis and Shelby County Emergency Manage- ~nt Agency, said ABC's Good 

1o/f_~rning America began inter- ~W;ws Wednesday night for a fufute segment. 

Southeast Missourian 

(Cape Girardeau, Mo.) 

Reprinted by permission 

. "I had a little problem with 

i(;OOd Morning America," said 

WOod. "While conducting an inietview with Jeff Crenshaw, the ~d of this agency,_ they kejlt §ropping him and tellmg h1m h1s 

i::e_sponses weren't what they 

wanted." · ~ood said an ABC producer ~!ned to focus on the drill as a ~e,sponse to New Mex1co 

atmatologist Iben Browning's 

Dec. 3 earthquake prediction. 

But planning for the drill began 

18 months ago- prior to Browning's prediction - and Wood 

said Crenshaw repeatedly em- phasized the drill is not a kneejerk reaction . The Today segment focused on anxiety about earthquakes in 

middle America. Jill Stevens, manager of public education 

and information for the MSU 

center, said Johnston described 

Browning's predictions as "post- dictions," capitalizing on afterthe-fact publicity for broad 

statements made prior to disasters. 

Ms. Stevens said ABC's World 

News Tonight-is planning a later 

segment to include an interview 

with Johnston, and the PBS se- ries NOVA will air a segment 

this winter on risks along the 

New Madrid fault zone. Wood said Good Morning 

America's segment will air next 

week as part of a series on the an- niversary of last year's San Francisco earthquake. He said a Cable News Network crew was supposed to arrive 

Thursday to do a segment on the 

quake zone, including Memphis. 

And CONUS, a satellite news network with 100 affiliates, sent a news team from an Okla4n~ 

affiliate to cover the drill. :• •· 

Quakes pack 

power of planet 

TI'Je Sovtheost Ml$sourlon 

begins publlcotlon today 

of o series of articles obovt 

earthquakes ond efforts· ' 

being mode to prepare for 

the effects of o quake In 

this reo/on. This series is· 

Intended to be. a factual 

accounting of what Is · 

known about earthquakes 

ond the New Madrid Fault, 

which runs through the 

region and holds the 

potent/of for o major 

quake. It Is also Intended to 

offer readers tips oii how to 

be prepared foro quake. 

By David Hente 

Stall Writer 

First In a series . , . . CAPE GIRARDEAU ~ When it comes to · natural occurrences, earthquakes bring with: them all the power ofthe planet • .': · . Earthquakes are caused by the abrupt release. of ~red energy within the earth's. crust. They' occur with the sudden release · of that energy, .· just as the energy of a stretched rubber band is 

released when the band breaks. · ·· . ·· Seismologists; sc ientists who study 

earthquakes, poin( out the earth is not solid, but 

made up of eight major plates and numerous smaller ones that float on a core of molten .li- quid deep beneath the surface of the planet. · Where one· of these plates collides, or rubs 

against another, or where they slide. past each 

other, there is either volcanic activity and 

C3rth~uakes; or iri 5oine cases, such as the Mt. 

Helen s eruption, both. 

Scientists say this· is a natural process of the earth renewing itself. As new crust is formed, 

the old crust is thrust back into th.e molten 

mantle, and remelted. This cycle takes place 

over a long time span. For example, in California, the Pacific Plate is 

sliding ever so slowly past the North American 

Plate. Where the two plates slide past each other 

is the San Andreas Fault. 

Other active fault or seismic wnes are located 

along the Japanese islands, the Southwest Pacific island chain, north of Australia. and the east- ern · Mediterranea·n. area, including Greece, 

Turkey, and Afghanistan. · S orne earthquakes occur where the earth's 

plates are spreading ·apart, or rifting. That allows molten ma$ma 10 create new surfaces on undersea mountain ranges. For many rears; scientists were puzzled as to 

origin of seiSmic activity in the New Madrid 

Seismic Zone, since it is located far from any 

colliding or abrasive plates. 

See QUAKE 
Quake 

The most powerful series of 

earthquakes ever recorded on the 

North American continent occuned 

during the winter of 1811-12 in the 

vicinity of the tiny Missouri com- munity of New Madrid. 

Since that time, a large area of the 

middle United States, stretching 

from southern Arlcansas and Mississippi to the Great Lakes and 

eastward to the Appalachian 

Mountains, has been rocked on oc- casion by earthquakes originating 

from the New Madrid Seismic 

Zone. 

Today, seismologists believe they 

have their answer. The New 

Madrid Fault Zone is directly over 

an ancient rift that began to form in 

the earth's crust. But the rift failed 

to split, reversed direction, and partially closed. As time passed, the failed rift 

filled with sedimentary rock and 

soil so that the rift and the associated faults are buried deep below the 

earth's surface. 

Today, the rift, which is located 

above the earth's lower crust, is un- der great stress as it is being pushed 

together both from the east and 

west. Earthquakes that originate 

about 25 miles beneath the earth's 

surface, in Southeast Missouri and 

Northeast Arkansas, are adjustments to these su:esses. According to Dr. Davi4 Stewart, 

director of the Southeast Missouri 

State University Center for 

Earthquake Studies, the New 

Madrid Seismic Zone exteilds 120 

miles southward from the area of 

Charleston, Mo., and Cairo, Ill., 

through New Madrid and 

APPENDIX C- TI-lE PREDICfiON IN THE PRESS 107 

From Page 1 

Caruthersville, following Interstate 

55 to Blytheville, and on down to 

Marked Tree, Ark. It is about 70 

miles wide, and crosses five state , iines. It cuts across the Mississippi 

River in three places, and the Ohio 

River in two places. 

More than 200 earthquakes are measured each year along and near the fault zone, or about 20 a month. 

Only a few reach the level that can be felt. 

However, seismologists have 

warned for the past decade that 

there is now a 50 percent chance of a 6.3 magnitude earthquake occur- ring along the New Madrid Seismic 

Zone before the end of this century. This warning was made long before Dr. Iben Browning said there was a 50 percent probability of a 7.0 or greater magnitude some- where in the New Madrid Seismic 

Zone this December. The energy released from a 6.3 

10-14-90 

Southeast Missourian (Continued) 

New Madrid earthquake' would 

equal .to two Hiroshima-type 

atomic bombs, while the energy 

released from a 7.0 magnitude 

quake would equal a one mega-ton 

hydrogen bomb, according to Dr. 

Stewart. _ · · 

Because of · different gCQlogic 

characteristics,- seismologists say 

earthquakes originating in the New 

Madrid Seismic Zone can inflict 

much more damage over a greater area than earthquakes of the same magnitude that occur on the West 

Coast. 

For example, a 6.7 magnitude 

quake- in the Los Angeles area would be felt only in the So\Jthern 

California area If that same quake 

occurred in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, its effects would be felt 

through much of the Lower and 

Upper Mississippi River Valley, 

and the entire Ohio River Valley. 

Scientists say the reason for the 

differences in intensitieS is that the 

complex and fractured rock of the 

west coast tends to , dampen the 

seismic shock waves as they travel 

from the epicenter. That reduces 

the area of damage . for an earthquake of a given magnitude. 

But in the New Madrid Seismic 

Zone, the uniform crust of the midcontinent and the texture of soil in 

the Ohio and Mississippi River'valleys, allows the shock waves of even moderate earthquakes to 

travel far from epicenter.· . · ·• · • The San Andreas Fault is located 

much closer to the earth's surface, 

and can actu:llly be seen on the sur~ 

face in some locations. But the 

New Madrid Fault is buried under 

billions. of tons or rock and soil. 

Energy from a New Madrid quake 

travels much further as a resulL . . There is another reason why New 

Madrid Seismic Zone earthquakes are much more dangerous than 

those on · the west coasL Stewart, 

and other scientists explain that 

much of the Missouri Bootheel. and 

that of Northeast. Arlcansas, and 

parts of Southern Illinois, West 

Kentucky and Tennessee, have wet, 

sandy soils. : . 

During an earthquake, this type of 

loose soil and water would com- bine during the process or liquefaction. Insle:ld of remaining in solid 

form, the soil takes on the con- sistency or quicksand, unable to 

support' major buildings or structures. 

Large sand blows that carne from 

the 1811-12 earthquakes C3li still 

be seen on the surface in. many 

parts of the Bootheel 

The sandy soil in the New Madrid 

Seismic Zone . is also prone to 

ground subsidence during a major 

earthquake. The effect is much like 

cereal in a box when it is shaken •. l ' 

Because of' the potential· for· 

widespread d:image and 'disruption 

of everyday life in the event of_!. 

6.5 magnitude •. or· greater, 

earthquake in the New Madrid 

SeismiC Zone, scientists urge that 

preparations be · made. These in: 

elude: · -. · · ~-

. - PubliC awareness and education, - Mitigation efforts to reduce the 

extent of physical damage and 

casualties, 

- Planning for !esponse ~nd 

recovery follow1ng a· maJor 

earthquake, 

. , ·And, training and exercises to 

prepare for an earthquake; or other 

major disaster. 

. In Monday's edition: A look 

at the earthquake prediction 

that got the region concerned. 

Getting prepared: Store 72-hours .. \vOrth of food 

By Dr. David Ste~art 

Some common qu~tions and. concerns diri:cted to . the Ce'nter for Earthquake Studies 

at Southeast Missouri State Univ~ity involve a basic element needed far survival following a disaster, food. , . · 1 · -I recommend putting' iogether a 72-hour 

food supply for you and yo!!'" family. You will 

need to stock two servings Of meat. two serv- ings of milk, tWo Servings of f]uit and vegetables and four servings of breads and cereals 

per family member. per day. For each 

teenager, add ·eight extra servings of milk 

foods for the time period and four extra milk 

servings for each child. · ' : . 

You should plan on preparing at least the 

fllSt two meals without using heat and select 

foods requiring little or no water. Select foods 

with high nutritional value that are easy to 

store. Foods that will keep for six months or ·. 

more are bCsL 

Be sure to include a selection of fOods that 

you will enjoy eating cold, because it may not 

be possible to cook for several days: In addition. don't lo:id up on salty foods which will 

increase your thirst, because water might be in 

short supply. . 

Some examples of foods suiU~ble for storing 

include canned fruits and vegetables, powdered milk. beef jerlcy, crackers. canned meats 

and fish. dried fruits, peanut butter, instant 

~meal. pasta, dry beans and instant orange 

drink. . 

Foods that will store for up to two years include pasta, rice, uncooked cereal, sugar and 

salt. Examples of foods suitable for storing up 

to a year include canned meaL fiSh and con- densed soups. canned fruits, instant potatoes, 

dry beans. instant coffee and tea, flour, pudding mixes and hard candy. Those foods that 

need to be replaced after six months include 

evaporated and dry milk; instant breaklasl 

drinks and bars, pancake !llix and rice mixes:-:: Non~food items lhai should be stored. witli. your food supply include a method of cooking. 

such as a Sterno stove, a large· erilpt)' coffee 

can for use as a coolcing container, a smallel 

cari for mixing foods, a spoon and matches iii' a water proof container. You should also store a manual can opener, sharp knife, aluminum 

foil, pre-moistened towelettes, paper plates 

and cups, plastic flatware. liquid soap and 

vitamins. 

Dr. David Stewart Is the director of 

the Center of Earthquake Studies at 

Southeast Missouri State University. 

This column Is one In a series dealing 

with specific concerns In preparing for 

a major earthquake In this region. 
108 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

10-15-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal--Editorial 

Reprinted by permission of The Commercial Appeal 

Quake date/ 

Prediction may serve good purpose 

:: · ~ME may disagree, but Dr. Ibep. Browning appears to have 

done a lot of people a lot of good. (. · 01{, so the controversial climatologist may have shaken a few 

folks a little too hard with his prediction of a major earthquake in 

the New Madrid fault zone on or within a couple of days of Dec. 3. ->:.: '· There has been some overreac- tion, but no one has been hurt, 

;ieiilly, and many may benefit in 

$,e long run. What has been called a sense- less scare at least seems to have 

stimulated residents in and near tlie fault area- including Mem- phians - to prepare for a major ·quake, whenever it comes. ·-.-{: '."I don't care what motivates tt:J..·· •' . - - .. . ~Elm,. as long as they stay pre- :pared," Jeff Crenshaw, director of 

the·.--· , Emergency Management 

Ag~ncy at Memphis, told The Com- 'mercial Appeal during prepara-

!i.Q.ii'cif a·recent series on the quake 

tll\te iSsue. :::-::-And earthquake experts who 

roll.tlieir eyes in exasperation at 

10-15-90 

Southeast Missourian 

(Cape Girardeau, Mo.) 

Reprinted by permission 

Dr~' Browning's attempt to pinpoint an exact date agree that a ma- j()r New Madrid temblor is possible i_ the.lifetime of many who read 

'tliese words. ~~ Df~ Arch Johnston, director of 

jh~ ;:.c~nter for Ea~hquake Re-

!Searcli and Informauon at Memtpliii;St'at€ University, has forecast 

!1 ~3 percent chance of a quake ~measuring 6 or greater on the 

Richter scale in the New Madrid 

.fault zdne in the next 15 years, and 

~9-7.. percent chance within SO 

r,~a~' · ~f' : The odds of a Richter plus-7 on pee: 3? Fifty-fifty, says Browning. ,.Qne.in 60,000, counters Johnston. 

\f>.: Folks who don't need much ex- ·_¢'ilse for a party anyway certainly are having a ball with the prediction. Earthquake events are the 

rage, and people are plunking 

down cold cash forT-shirts declar-

·ing whether they're leaving or staying on Dec. 3. 

Other businesses are booming, 

including those that sell camping 

and emergency supplies - which 

merely shows that Browning has 

influenced people to do what they 

should have been doing in the first 

place- making sensible preparations for a possible emergency. 

One may reasonably question 

why sonie school boards felt obliged to suspend classes on Dec. 3, or why nervous nellies actually 

plan to take off for distant parts 

prior to the shake date. 

Clear-thinkers, meanwhile are turning the ·prediction int~ something positive. SChool teachers, taking advantage of the sudden interest in earthquakes, are showing pupils what causes quakes and how to prepare for 

them without panic. Homeowners are learning how to cut off utilities 

in an emergency, and public officials are dusting off and testing 

emergency plans. 

BROWNING bases his predic: tion on high tidal forces, which he 

says will be much greater than 

usual around Dec. 3 because a full moon will occur shortly after that 

orb makes its closest pass to Earth, 

and because this will occur only a month after Earth's closest pass to 

the sun, and two months after an eclipse alignment. 

Many scientists remain uncon- vinced that tidal forces are a significant factor in the occurrence of earthquakes. They also worry 

that if nothing happens Dec. 3, the 

public won't take future warnings 

seriously. 

"Scientific credibility is a very 

fragile thing," Johnston said. Let us hope that neither Johnston's fears, nor Browning's New 

Madrid predictions, come to pass. 

Forecast stirs doubts 

The Southeast Missourian 

continues publication. . 

today of 0 series of articles 

about earthquakes and 

efforts being mode to 

prepare for the effects ot a 

quake in this reg/ott ·This 

series Is Intended to be a 

factual accounting of what 

Is known aboUt 

earthquakes and the New 

Madrid Fault. which rwis · 

through the region and 

holds the potential for a 

major quake. It Is also 

Intended to offer readers 

tips on quake preporoctldri. 

By Jay Eastlick 

Staff Writer 

Second in a series 

CAPE GIRARDEAU- Joe was stepping out 

of the shower when his house began to shake. It 

started as a mild rattling, but within seconds the 

shaking grew violent · · 

As . he stepped beneath the frame of- the 

bathroom doorway, Joe hoped his wife and two 

small children, who were downstairs eating pancakes and sweet rolls, were alright _ . · 

. ·After about 35 seconds, the shaking stopped; 

but Joe's heart was still pounding as he called to 

his wife. He rushed downstairs to find his family frightened but safe. 

They had crawled under the heavy kitchen 

table, . which· was littered with several porcelain shaking. 

nick-knacks that feU from a shelf on the wall. 

Several books also had fallen to the living room See QUAKE 
APPENDIX C-TilE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 109 

Quake 

The electricity wasn't working, but Joe tested 

the faucet to find there was running water. 

There were plenty of batteries and flashlights in 

the swvival kit he packed only weeks earlier. The house was a bit of a mess, but his family 

had survived the earthquake they had 

anticipated fearfully for months. 

Earthquake scientists along the New Madrid 

seismic zone arc hoping that hypothetical 

sccn:uio is closer to reality than the distress cre- ated since a nationally acclaimed climatologist 

projected that a large earthquake would strike . the New Madrid Fault Dec. 3. 

Climatologist Ibcn Browning, 72. of Sandia 

Park, N.M., also is a consultant to businesses 

and the military. He achieved national recognition last October when he accurately predicted 

last year's San Francisco-area earthquake. 

At the time he predicted the California quake, 

Browning said a major quake along the New 

Madrid Fault was possible during the f~rst week. in December. He said there is a 50-percent · probability of a quake measuring 7.0 or greater on the Richter Scale occurring along the fault. 

But scientists and earthquake researchers have 

downplayed the prediction, saying Browning's 

prediction methods arc unscientifiC at best. 

Harvey Ryland, the executive director of the 

Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium in 

Memphis, Tenn., said residents along the New 

Madrid Fault shOuld be prepared for the possibility of an earthquake at any time, without 

regard to the Dec. 3 forecast by Browning. 

"We do not support his prediction," Ryland . 

said. "We accept the opinions of the earthquake 

scientists that say an earthquake won't occur on that day any more than it would on any other 

day. . . 

"People should get ready as rapidly as possible; not because oC the prediction, but because_ 

we should be ready for one e-verY day." . Dr. David Stewart, director of the Center for 

Earthquake Studies at Southeast Missouri State 

University, last month explained Browning's 

methods for predicting quakes at a Geo-Science. Society symposium at the university. . Stewart said Browning's method cannot be 

proved through scientific methods, but the 

methods can't be disproved either. 

Stewart said Browning based his projection on the alignment oC the sun, Earth and moon on · Dec. 3, which will produce an unusually strong 

gravitational pull on Earth's crust 

According to Browning's theory; when such 

conditions arc present, there is a greater probability that an earthquake will be triggered on existing faults. 

Browning has said the greatest likelihood for an earthquake Dec. 3 is along the New Madrid 

Fault or a fault system in Tokyo, Japan. 

But Klaus Jacob; senior research scientist at 

Lamont-Dohery Geological Observatory of 

Columbi:i University in Palisades, N.Y., said 

Browning's methods are flawed. He called 

Browning's prediction of last·year's California 

quake "lucky." 

Arch Johnston, director of the Center for 

Earthquake Research and Information at 'Memphis State University- in. Tennessee, has .said Browning's predictions aren't •scientifical1 y justified. • 

10-15-90 

Southeast Missourian (Continued) 

0 If you are indoors: Stay there. Get under a sturdy 

table or desk or brace yourself in a doorway or corner. 

Move to an inside hallway when possible. Stay clear 

of windows, bookcases, china cabinets, heavy 

mirrors, hanging plants and other heavy objects. 

0 If you are outside: Move to an open area away from 

power lines, power poles, trees, walls and chimneys; 

0 On a sidewalk near a building: Duck into a doorway 

to protect yourself from falling bricks, ·glass, plaster and 

other debris. 

0 In a crowded store: or other public place, do not 

rush for exits. Move away from display shelves 

containing objects that may fall. 

D In your car: Pull to the side of the road and stop .. Do 

not park under bridges or overpasses or overhead 

wires. Stay in you car until the shaking stops. Stay in 

your car if electrical wires have fallen across your 

vehicle. Do not to cross bridges or overpasses 

that m have been 

Johnston said the tidal forces Browning bases · his .methodology· on have been _examined 

thoroughly by seismologists and that lherc's no evidence the tidal forces can trigger 

earthquakes. 

Douglas Wiens, a professor of earth ·and 

p~ sciences at Washinglon University in 

SL Lows, has studied earthquakes worldwide. 

He. called Browning's prediction "ridiculous and 

unscientific." 

Wiens said years of research by earthquake 

experts show that quakes occur just as often 

when tidal forces arc low as when they are high. 

He said tidal forces exert much less force on faults than do other forces like changes in the 

water table following heavy rainfall. Wiens also said there is very little documented 

evidence of Browning's accuracy in past prcdic-' lions. · · 

"The ncar-hysteria that has developed over such a groundless prediction is startling to those 

of us who study earthquakes daily," Wiens 

wrote in a recent newspaper column. • Ryland said that earthquake experts do expect a major earthquake along the New Madrid fault 

withm the next 50 years. He said scientists at 

Memphis State University have said there's a 50-percent chance of a 6.0-7 .0-magnitude 

earthquake on the fault within 10-15 yeais, and a 90-percent charJCe of.sljch.a quake within 50 

years. -·: · -. · ....... , . . .. . 

But Ryland said it's"impossible to determine a specifiC day such a qualce likely will. occur. 

Despite the skepticism, Stewart- perbaps lhc 

<1flly national _earthquake expert to actually interview Browning about his predictions . ..:.... said . the climatologist's track record speaks for itself. · "His forecasts have been found highly reliable 

in many areas," Stewart said. · 

He said Browning aw.arcntly -has accurately 

predicted not only last year's. San FrarJCisco 

quake, but also the 1980 Mount SL Helens eruption. He also reportedly picked the dates in 1985 

when the Mexico City earthquake and the 

Novado del Ruiz volcano eruption in Colombia 

occurred, Stewart said. · ' 

"These, plus his 1971 prediction of the San 

Fernando earthquake 24 hours ahead of time, , indicate that what Dr. Browning is doing can- not be explained merely by chance, • said 

Stewart • Although his accuracy is not 100 per-

. ~ent, his methodology does ~m to. be promismg and worthy of senous consideration. • But Stewart said residents along the New 

Madrid Fault shouldn't prepare for a Dec. 3 

earthquake only to become apathetic if the date 

passes wilhout event · . .· "The important thing is to realize. that destructive earthquakes will happen from time to time . in · the New Madrid fault, •. Stewart said. 

"Whether or not such an. event occurs on or ·about Dec. 3, 1990, has nothing to do with the 

necessity for the central U.S. to prepare for such an evenluality." . . 

(Some information for this story was provided · by the Associated Press.) · · 
110 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

10-15-90 

Southeast Missourian 

(Cape Girardeau, Mo.) 

Reprinted by permission 

Prediction leads 

to preparedness, 

great discomfort 

By Jay Eastlick 

StaHWrlter 

CAPE GIRARDEAU- Earthquake experts 

say a New Mexico climatologist's prediction 

that a major earthquake will occur alorig the 

New Madrid fault iri early December presents an interesting paradox. 

On one hand, the prediction has piqued interest in earthquake preparedness, but it also 

has resulted in growmg discomfort as school 

districts, government offices and businesses 

plan to shut down on the day of the supposed 

quake. 

!ben Browning's prediction of a 50-percent 

probability for an earthquake measuring 7.0 or 

greater Dec. 3 along the fault has been discounted by experts, but people living near the 

fault aren't taking any chances. Residents arc stocking up on survival items 

such as bottled water, canned goods, and firstaid kits to prepare for the quake. But 

earthquake experts say ther fear interest in 

earthquake preparedness wil wane if the Dec. 

3 date passes without an event. 

Harvey Ryland, executive director of the 

Central U.S . Earthquake Consortium in 

Memphis, Tenn., said earthquake prepared10-17-90 

Southeast Missourian 

Reprinted by permission 

ness must not hinge on whether Browning 

turns out to be prophetic. 

"We stress public awareness, education and 

preparation for responding to an earthquake, • Ryland said. "We do not encourage any kind 

of panic or stress over this situation. 

"While we cannot predict when and where 

and how large an earthquake can be, the good ~ews is, the indivi~ual c!'" make a very large 

1mpact on protectmg h1s home and family 

against losses from such an event." 

Ryland said earthquake experts at Memphis 

State have said there's a 50-percent chance of a 6.0-7.0-magnitude earthquake ·on the New 

Madrid Fault within the next 10-15 years, and a 90-pcrcent chance of such a quake in the 

next 50 years. 

But Ryland said it's impossible to determine a specific day such a quake likely will occur. The most severe sequence of earthquakes in 

the history of the U.S. occurred along the New· 

Madrid Fault during the winter of 1811-12. 

The · area has continued to have earthquakes 

since then, but none have been as strong as the 

three main 1811-12 shocks, which were followed by aftershocks for several years. 

The last earthquake large enough to cause extensive building damage and . ground liquefactions along the fault was in Charleston 

in 1895, with an estimated magnitude of 6.2. 

Scientists say earthquakes with magnitudes 

of the one in 1895 .occur every 90-100 years in 

the New Madrid seismic zone. If a 6.0 or greater magnitude earthquake were to occur now, scientists predict there 

would be moderate building damage, injuries, 

cracked oil and gas pipelines and downed 

power lines. The quake also could cause geologic effects, 

such as widespread ground liquefaction and 

cracking, minor flooding, debris flows and 

landslides. 

Ryland said several easy and inexpensive 

measures can be taken to help prevent injuries 

and property damage in the event of a quake. 

He said people should: . . - Educate themselves about .earthquakes 

and how to respond during a quake. . - Take mitigation measures in their homes 

to help prevent injuries and property damage, 

particularly from falling items. · : . · . · He said securely atlaching heavy bookcases 

and furniture to walls, securing hanging plants 

and lamps so they're unable to swing free of 

hooks, moving beds away from 'windows, and 

latching .cabinets so thal"doors won't swing 

open, will help minimize possible injuries and 

property damage in an earthquake. ' · - Develop emergency plans for their 

families so that everyone knows what . to do 

during and after a quake. Also, families 

should conduct home earthquake drills to as- sure that everyone knows the emergency plan. - Prepare a survival kit to include food, 

water, first-aid supplies, flashlights, batteries, a ~rtable radio and tools. If people do these things they can really 

have an unpact on reducing losses," Ryland 

said. 

In Tuesday's edition: Public utilities 

get ready for a potential earthquake. 

Schools get prepared · The Southeast Missourian 

continues pub/icotion 

today of a series of articles 

about earthquakes and 

efforts being made to 

prepare for the effects of a 

quake In this region. This 

series is intended to be a 

factual accounting of what 

is- kno"Wn a6out . . earthquakes and the New 

Madrid Fault. which runs 

through the region and 

holds the potential for a 

major quake. It Is also 

intended to offer readers 

tips on quake preparation. 

By Mark Bliss 

Staff Writer 

Fourth in a series 

CAPE GIRARDEAU - Earthquake drills 

and evacuation plans have taken hold at area schools as teachers, staff and students prepare 

for the possibility of a major quake. 

Schools not only are spending countless hours 

planning for such a disaster. they're spending 

money on emergency supplies such as first-aid kits~ - · · - · 

"Right now we want to teach people to duck, cover and hold on," said Dr. Arthur Turner, 

Cape Girardeau public schools superintendent 

Students in public schools here and in other area schools are being taught to duck under a desk or other sturdy object in the event of an earthquake. Once the shaking has stopped, student3 would be evacuated to open areas. 

Fred Jones, administrative assistant for the 

Jackson R-2 School District, said, • All of our buildings have designated assembly areas, 

See SCHOOLS 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 111 

Schools 

which :~re away from overhead transmission 

lines, utility poles and things of this sort." 

In . e:1rly October the Jackson school district 

held e:1rthquake drills. Additional drills are planned for the week of Nov. 26-30. 

In the recent exercise, the five buildings that 

comprise the Jackson High School complex were evacuated within one minute and 21 sec- onds, said Jackson Fire Chief Gary Niswonger. 

"Every school we have in Jackson was evacuated in less than a minute and a half," he 

said. · 

Nqtre Dame High School in Cape Girardeau 

has also held e:lrthquake drills. 

"We have had earthquake drills and we; will 

continue to have them on a periodic basis 

throughout the school ye:~r," said Sister· Mary 

Ann Fischer, principal of the Catholic high 

school. 

At Southeast Missouri State University, Public Safety Director Doug Richards and a safety 

committee hilve put together an emergency plan 

th:!t calls for spending about $45,000 this fall on a variety of items from portable generators and 

walkie-talkies to flashlights and fJCSt-aid kits. 

Emergency preparedness activities have been 

spurred by a prediction by climatologist !ben . Browning that there is a 50-percent probability 

of a quake measuring 7.0 or greater on the 

Richter Scale .occurring along the New Madrid 

Fault Zone Dec. 3. In addition, a 4.6-magnitude 

quake on Sept. 26, which shook the entire 

region, has put an increased emphasis on emer- gency planning efforts. . At the university, the shopping list for emer- gency supplies includes: two portable generators, 2,000 copies of the university's emergency 

plan, 24 walkie-talkies, three portable base 

radios, six emergency stand-up lights, 80 flashlights, 400 batteries, 10 portable public address 

systems, four cellular telephones, 30 first-aid 

kits, and a portable communications tower. 

In the event of a major e:lrthquake, an emer- gency operations center (EOC) would be set up 

at the public safety office, Rich:~rds said. 

The university's EOC would serve as a primary communications link with Dr. David 

Stewart, director of the Center for Earthquake 

Studies at Southeast Missouri State. It would 

also provide a means of communicating to other 

agencies through the Missouri law enforcement 

and national law enforcement computer systems, Rich:~rds said. "One of our frrst concerns would be the on- going safety of people on campus, • he said. 

Plans are being made to hold emergency 

evacuation drills at campus buildings within the 

next few weeks. 

If an earthquake occurs, and buildin~s are subsequently evacuated, Physical Plant Director 

Vince Seyer and his crews will ihen evaluate 

buildings to determine if the structures :~re safe 

to re-enter. 

If a dormitory· were damaged and had to be 

10-17-90 

Southeast Missourian (Continued) 

· temporarily closed, students could be housea m 

the Show Me Center, Richards said. He said the 

Show Me Center is one of several campus 

buildings that are seismically designed to rre· vent them from collapsing in the event o an earthquake. The others are the Towers 

dormitory complex and the Rhodes Hall of 

Science. 

At the city's public schools, students would be. evacuated under the direction of teachers or other staff members, Turner said. The siudents 

would be evacuated to such open :~reas as playgrounds, and in the case of the high school, 

the football field. 

Groups of students will be assigned to specific 

areas at evacuation sites. 7hey've got to go to an assigned place so we know where to loc:~te 

them, • explruned Turner. Immediately after a quake, it would be up .to 

building principals to determine if it is safe to 

go back mside the schools, he said. -ne most 

likely thing is, we will go back into school," 

said Turner. · 

He said: "One of the things we :~re doing is ll)'in~ to work out effective alternative commu- mcatiOn. We already have radio contact with 

each of our elementary schools. • Plans are being made to expand the radio communication 

system to the hi~h school. 

The Cape . Guardeau . and Jacl>_~on publi.!= ·SChools and Notre Dame High School have un- dertaken a number of activities designed to 

make the schools safer in the event. of an e:lrthquake. 

Primarily, those activities have involved an- choring such things as book shelves, file 

cabinets and water heaters, and securely storing 

che'micals. . City public school officials have ordered a protective film that will be installed on the inside of school windows in an effort to prevent 

injuries from shattered glass dunng an e:lrthquake. . "We're going to start with places where we have big window walls," s:ud Turner. Such 

schools include Alma Schrader and Jefferson. 

"We're also buying some emergency supplies 

to store such as food,. water, fJCSt-aid materials 

and protective blankets. • · Turner estimated the district will spend from 

$35,000 to $50,000 to prepare for an earthquake 

disaster. 

FJCSt-aid and CPR training will be offered to 

teachers and district staff members e:~rly next 

month. "We anticipate that we will have individuals in every school who will be capable of 

doing fJCSt-aid kinds of activities. • In the case of a disastrous e:lrthquake, Turner 

said, the school district would make use of voc:~tional-technical school personnel who have 

training in practical nursing and respiratory therapy. :· ·. 

Within the next five to seven years, the superintendent said. the school district needs to look 

From Page 1 

at new school buildings or maldng mcidicications to existing schools 10 make them more e:lrthquake-proof. · 

The bottom line in any emergency prepared- ness plan is to react calmly. "We will allbe bet· 

ter off if we face things calmly and rationally," said Turner. · · 

Of the Jackson schools, Jones said, "Each one of our buildings has been assesSed for seismic 

hazards by a building committee and each room has been checked by individual teachers. • Steps have been taken to anchor items. 

The school district has developed an earthquake res_ponse plan, which outlines the 

emergency actions that would be taken by all 

school district employees. . · · "You never can be complacent about safety of 

students, and you try to plan for as man~ possible emergency situations as possible, said 

Jones. "Sometimes it boils down to common sense and dealing with what happens insiead of 

worrying about everything that could possibly 

happen." . Cape Girardeau public schools and many 

other area schools have canceled classes for 

Dec. 3 and 4 as a safety precaution against the 

possibility of a major e:lrthquake at that time. 

Other schools, including Notre Dame and Jackson, have yet to make a decision about whether 

to _canc_el classt:s. 

Fischer, the Notre Dame principal, said the 

high school staff would like to see classes held as usual those days. FIScber said it would be 

better for the students to be at school and under 

adult. supervision in the event an earthquake· 

would occur. 

She said the high school staff ha5 been instructed on how to evacuate the building and 

fJCSt-aid kits have been installed in· strategic 

pl:lces throughout the Catholic high school and m the garage of the nearby convent. She said 

Notre Dame students have been taught about 

e:lrthquakes and how to react in the event of one. 

Fischer said it's important to hold earthquake 

drills throughout the school ye:~r and not just 

ge:~r such exercises to the possibility of a quake on Dec. 3. "We know that scientifically we could have a major earthquake at any time and 

th:!t we have 200 quakes every ye:~r that we don't even feel," she said. 

Said Fischer, "Our thinking here is if we conduel these earthquake drills on a periodic basis, 

this will have a calming influence on our students when and if a major quake occurs. • She said. "We're dealing with high school students who have the capability of understanding 

the scientific facts surrounding earthquakes, and 

I think that minimizes some of the trauma." 

In Thursday•s· edition: Emergency 

agencies have ·response plans In place 

In the event of a major earthquake. 
112 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

10-17-90 

Southeast Missourian 

(Cape Girardeau, Mo.) 

Reprinted by permission 

Rescue training, 

quake drills help 

in preparedness 

By Mark Bliss 

Staff Writer 

CAPE GIRARDEAU - Jim Lawrence ex- pects to be dealing with· some 200 "victims" on Nov. 20. 

Lawrence is a training specialist with the 

Missouri Department of Health, Bureau of 

Emergency Medical Services office in Jack- son .. · 

The mock victims will be part of a "multiple 

casualty" field exercise for emergency medical technicians, nursing and public health personnel, firefighters, coroners and medical ex- aminers from a six-state area. 

With rescue training and mock disasler drills 

this fall; area ftrefigh_tei;S. hospital emplo~ 

and other eriler~ncy personnel are prepanng for the possibility of a major earthqu:ik oc- curring along the New Madrid Fault. _ Lawrence-s:iid about 500 participants are ex- pected to attend the two-d:w training session, 

which will be held at Southeast Missouri State 

University Nov. 19-20. . · . . The emergency medical services bureau is 

helping to sponsor the training session. . The ftrSt <lily will involve lectures, with the 

mock disaster to follow on the second day at 

the university's intramural and Soccer faeld at 

Sprigg :ind Bertling, Lawrence said. 

Treatment of the "injured" will involve setting up a field hospital "We're looking at a real large exercise." said Lawrence. .· · · More than. 100 fuefighters have registered 

for a regional fire schOol which will be held 

Oct. 27-28 in Jackson. Some of the 

firefighters will be participating in a f~eld ex- ercise designed to show· them how to rescue people from collapsed buildings, said Jackson 

Fire Chief Gary N1swonger. · .· In addition, he said, an earthquakeprepared- ness seminar for fueftghters is scheduled for 

Nov. 16-18 at 'the Drury Lodge in Cape Girardeau. . That seminar will feature rue chiefs from a number of California communities that experienced a major earthquake last October. 

Both the cities of~ Girardeau and Jackson, Southeast Missoun Hospital and St. Francis Medical Center have disaster plans. 

In. the event of ·an earthquake, command 

posts would be set up at the No. 1 fue station 

in. Cape Girardeau and at the police and ftre 

cbmplex in Jackson. 

Car Mini-Survival Kit 

0 · Non-perishable food: Store In clean - coffee cans 

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Jackson's police and f~re complex has an emergency generator, which would be critical 

for powering lights and communication equipment in the event of a power outage, said Niswonger .. The ftre chief serves as Jackson's 

emergency preparedness director. 

In Cape Girardeau, both the main fue station 

and the police station have generators for 

emergency power and the other f~re stations 

and other city buildings could utilize portable 

generators. 

The city now has three portable generators, 

said Mark Hasheider, of the Cape Girardeau 

Fire Department. Hasheider is the emergency 

operations coordinator for the city. 

St. Francis and Southeast both have emer- gency generators so they could continue to 

function if Union Electric utilities were shut 

down. 

"We are an island unto ourself." said South- east Hospital Administrator O.D. Niswonger 

"We have our own emergency power, about a week of medical supplies, and about a week's 

food supply generally. • And so we can hold things together pretty 

well without any outside assistance for about a week perhaps." said Niswonger. 

St. Francis has a diesel-fuel-powered emer- gency generator systein. The hospital keeps 

about 25,000 gallons of fuel on hand, enough 

to keep the hospital operating for about a week, said Ric~ Essner, director of environmental engineering for the medical center and 

chairman of its fire safety and disaster com- mittee. 

Essner said St. Francis routinely tests its 

backup power system. 

Unlike schools, Cape's hospitals would not 

evacuate patients and staff unless the facilities were seriously damaged. · "It's a lot easier to evacuate schools than 

patients; said Jeannie Fadler, patient care department director at St. Francis and head of its 

disaster subcommittee. 

Both hospitals hold disaster drills on a regular basis. . . 'll 

Southeast went throu~h a.'l earthquake d!'i 

last spring, with hospital personnel treatmg 

mock patients. St. Francis is planning to hold an earthquake 

drill next month; Normally. ~uch drills !UC not 

aMounced fu advance to hospital employees. . But this time, because of all the public con- cern about a possible earthquake; ad~ce 

notice will be g1ven of the drill, Fadler sa1~ 

If a major earthquake occurs. both hospitals 

would determine which patients the~ could 

discharge to make room for quake victims. · If necessary, some patients wou~d be sent to 

hospitals in St. Louis and MemphiS, local hospital officials said. · Local emergency operations centers, as well as the county EOC, headquartered in Jackson, 

and the state's Emergency Management 

Agencf would be involved in coordinating 

emergency responses. . · "Missouri has an earthquake preparedness 

and safety program; said Dennis Mob~ce, of 

the Emergency Management Agency m Jefferson City. . He said the program's cornerstones are earthquake response training, reducing J?OS· 

sible hazards, public awareness and educatiOn. 

· Mobrice said there is a stat~ earthquake 

response plan, which involves a number of 

state agencies, such as the Highway ~I and 

the Missouri Highway and Transportation Department. 

But, he said, it could take up to ~ days 

after a major earthquake bef~~ outside help 

might be available to commumlles. 

"Depending on the c<indition of the roads, 

airports and so on." said Mobrice, "there is a thumbnail rule that communities should ex- pect to be on their own for up to. 72 hours. • 

The cities of Cape Girardeau and Jackson 

both have plans to assess dam_age to municipal 

buildings in the event of a maJor earthquake. 

In Jackson, the assessment would· be done 

by a team of city offtcials, while in Cape 

Girardeau the task would fall mainly .on the 

shoulders of the building inspectors. 

In the event of a major earthquake, city 

water lines might be damaged and unusable 

for fighting fires. · In that case, Niswonger said, the ftre department could pump water from two creeks 

which run tl:trough Jackson. 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICfiON IN THE PRESS 113 

10-19-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Scientists Rip Record lion of the Oct. 17, 1989, California 

quake actually made ·no m'eniion of a quake occurring anywhere , iii thlit 

state, inuch less in the· San Andreas 

fault, · where .it erupted. Some busi-· nessmen who attended a. talk by 

Browning a week before ·the quake had said they heard him predict ft./ 

·. But according to a trarl$criptl~i 

Browning's talk obtained by the scien" 

lists, he had said only: ".There' will 

probably be several earthquakes 

around the world, Richter 6-plus, and 

there may · be a volcano or two" 

around Oct 16. 

Of Earthqual{e Predictor 

By Wiiliam Allen 

01 the Post-Dispatch Staff 

A national panel of earthquake ex- perts ripped on Thurs\lay the track 

record or !ben Browning, the New 

Mexico climatologist who predicted a greatly increased chance of a ,quake 

around Dec. 3 In the New Madrid 

fault. 

. The National Earthqmike :?redlc· 

tion Evaluatjon Council round .no evidence that Brownlng.a.ciually predict· ed last October's Lorna Prieta 

earthquake in the San Francisco area, as he and his backers have claimed. 

Nor has he successfully predicted oth· er. earthquakes and volcanic erup- iio.ns, the panel sa.id. 

Those conclusions were among sev- eral that cast doubt on Browning's 

.credibility. He has forecast a 50·50 

chance of a quake· in the New Madrid 

faultwithin 48 hours of Dec. 3. . ·· 

Browning's method of predicting 

what he calls "dates 'at maximum danWesson 

invited Browning to submit information about. his m~thod and 

record. · · · 

The council Is an advi'sory ·. group to the U.S. 

Geological Sut· 

,vey. It studied 

Browning's pre· 

diction at the re- quest of the Central United States Earthquake Consortium, a group of emergency manage- ment offiCials. · · 

The i~ue or Browning's track re· cord is · important because it has 

played a major role in the.credibility 

of his Dec. 3 forecast with the public, 

the scientists said. 

The. panel's report says .that .whai was alleged to be Browning's predic· 

· The national council's report con- cludes that because Browning "did not specify .any location or a magnitude, 

he can hardly be given credit .for a successful prediction." 

An average or II 0 quakes a year worldwide ha·ve registered 6.0 or greater, so "the likelihood of such an earthquake occurring within a threeday window is therefore very high," 

the report says. · 

.. Tlie foundation of Brolvnlng's meth· 

od is his projedtion ·or a band of latitude around the globe where the tidal 

pul) of. lh·e moon and sun will peak at 

lben Browniiig . 

Quake forecast challenged 

certain time~. He has picked Dec. 3 as a . time when .tidal forces .will be at their highest in 27 years. · 

In addition to the New Madrid fault, 

Browning has made predictions for 

that date · for a similar quake in the 

Hayward Fauit in northern California 

and a fault near Tokyo, Japan. 

ger" due to high tidal forces is no ,---------------------------------------- more effective than random guessing, th~ panel .concluded. 

You· could . select the :dates by 

throwing darts at a calendar, and you 

would do:as well as Doctor. Browning h~? done," said panel member Duncajl Agnew. Agnew is a professor of 

geophysics at· the · Ut\lYersity or Cali· 

fornia at San Diego .. : 

:Jhe scientists released their report at•a· news conference at the Airport 

Hfiton i.n Woodson Terrace. , · 

':Robert Wessori, who interViewed 

B(Qwning at length bYtelepnone, said 

the panel had found ... no scie.ntlfic ba· 

sis for D.octor :Browning's prediction" 

aiJ.d that,it w~s·: a disseryii:e". to citi, zens of.' the central Unite'd StateS, 

wfiere a ·major New· Madrid· quake w~uld be felt ... · . . -

-;.w~SSiin 'is ~lie u.s. Geological Sur- v~y·s chief earthquake scientist . 

.~gnew said the natio.nal panel 

"cbuld see no basis for tbe selection of 

tJW New Madrid seisll)ic zone. a5 an area particularly ripe for .failure." 

Z..lthough they bhisted tlie Dec. 3 

p\',ediction; the· scientists stressed the 

need to continue general preparations 

fOr a qu&ke in the area of the New ~drid fault. 

~rowriing was unavailable for com- ment. Reaclied by · phone in Sandia 

Park; N.M., his wife; Florence Brownirfg, said: "As of five weeks ago, he is~ t giving interviews anymore." 

Browning is in ill health. · 

:!rhe report was· prepared by a work· 

ir{g group of 11 experts on various ~ects of earthquakes, including the 

iruluence of tidal forces. The group 

10-19-90 

Southeast Missourian 

(Cape Girardeau, Mo.) 

Reprinted by permission 

Scientists rebuff 

prediction 

By_ Jtm Greblng 

and David Hente 

Stafl Wrlt!U'S 

ST. L0UIS -An ad hoc group of earthquake 

eil(pertS from around the nation has concluded 

there is no scientific basis for a forecast of a major earthquake along the New Madrid Fault 

arouhd Dec. 3. The 11-member group was appointed by the 

United States Geological Survev to specifically 

rev1ew the validity of a prediction by Dr. lben 

Browning · that there was a 50 percent chance 

that tidal forces could trigger a magnitude 6.5 to 

7.5 earthquake in the region in early December. 

"There is no scientific basis for Dr. Browning's prediction and furthermore this prediction 

is a disservice to long-term efforts to address 

the very · real earthquake hazard present in the 

United States," said Dr. Robert L. Wesson, of 

Reston, Va:. chief of the Office of Earthquakes, 

Volcanoes and Engineering for the U.S. Geological Survey. Details of the report were released Thursday 

morning at a press conference at the St. Louis 

Airport Hilton Hotel. · Wesson noted that the group had talked with 

Dr. Browning and reviewed the methodology he 

used to make the forecast, but could find no basis to justify it. Dr. Duncan Agnew, a professor at the Univer- sity of California at San Diego and a member of 

lhe group that drafted the report, said they could 

find no basis for Browning's contention that 

there is a correlation between high tides and the occurrence of earthquakes. 

He added that there is no basis for selecting 

the New Madrid Fault as ripe for failure on the 

dates in December. 

Browning, a New Mexico climatologist and 

business consultant, has caused concern and 
114 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

10-19-90 

Southeast Missourian 

(Continued) 

some panic in the seven states 

alon&_!he New Madrid Fault with 

his prediction. The forecast has 

made earthquake preparedness a major issue and has caused many 

schools to cancel classes on Dec. 3 

and 4, including the Cape 'Girar- deau Public Schools. 

What has made Browning's forecast even more believable for many 

people is that he is credited with 

havil)g predicted several other 

earthquakes and .volcanic eruptions 

within one or two days. · Howev.er, Agnew explained the 

working group reviewed those 

claims and found that Browning 

had not predicted specifically 

where earthquakes . would occur, 

only that one would-occur within a certain time period. · Agnew noted that there is an earthquake of 6.0 magnitude or greater every three days in the 

world, which means, "you could 

pick dates by throwing <Ia$ at a calendar and get the same result" as Browning's forecasts. 

The concern over public reaction 

!6 Browning's forecast is what led 

the Centrar United ·states 

Earthquake Consortium (cUSEC): an organization of the seven states 

along the New Ma.drid Fault, to 

seek help from the National 

Earthquake Prediction Council. 

The report of the ad hoc group was reviewed and unanimously 

endorsed by the earthquake prediction council and the U.S. Geological Survey. · 

The group acknowledged that a 

major earthqu~e along the Fault is 

inevitable, and everyone who spoke 

Thursday stressed the importance 

of trying to maintain the mo- mentum caused by this forecast in 

preparedness efforts. 

Representatives of the Red Cross 

and Federal Emergency Management Agency outlined some of the 

work being done by their agencies 

with publications and planning as- sistance for earthquakes. Dr. Brian Mitchell, a professor at 

St. Louis University and a member 

of the committee, said using tides 

to forecast earthquakes is not a new idea but most scientists discount 

the theory. 

Mitchell noted that Browning's 

approach to forecast the December 

quake is "not consistent with the 

normal process for achieving 

credibility" in scientific.studies. 

Wesson added that there is "only a kernel of science" in what 

Browning said. 

Quake exP.ert disP.utes· Browning_ 

Dr. Robert Wesson, chief of the Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and 

Engineering for the U.S. Geological Survey says a study group concluded 

there Is no scientific basis for lben Browning's prediction of a major 

earthquake along the New Madrid fault Dec. 2 or 3. (Photo by David Hente) 

The last major earthquake in Southeast Missouri occurred in 1895. Centered near Charleston,1he 

quake registered a magnitude of 

6.2. . Dr. Jerry Hauer, chairman of 

CUSEC, said he was concerned 

that if a major earthquake does not occur in early December, the public 

will become complacent and feel 

the threat of .. an earthquake has 

diminished. · 

"That is not the messa~e we want 

to get across to the 

today," he said. "We rieed to con- tinue to focus on earthquake 

preparedness, mitigation, particularly in $eismic codes for buildings, 

preparedness .and response, and 

public education." 

Although discounting Browning's 

prediction, Hauer .said some good 

has come of it because more attention has been focused on the risk of 

earthquakes in the Central United 

States. "The problem is, in the emer- gency preparedness business, when 

you educate people, you can't get 

to the point where you scare them 

intO panic; llfl.d I think th;tt\¥-batwe are sensing in some states is a level 

of panic," he said. "That is counterproductive to what we are trying to 

accomplish. There is too ·much 

anxiety about one specific date." 

The Thursday news conference, 

which was arranged by the U.S. 

Geological Survey Wednesday 

morning, drew representatives from 

about 40 . different media outlets. 

Among the cities represented were St. Louis, Kansas City, Springfield, 

III., Memphis, Little Rock, 

Paducah, Jonesboro, Ark., and 

Cape Girardeau. 

Besides Agnew and Mitchell, members of the ad hoc working 

group that prepared the report were: Dr. James F. Davis, 

chairman, from the California Division of Mines and Geology in 

Sacramento, Calif.; Michael 

Bograd, of the Bureau of Geology 

in Jackson Miss.; Dr. Thomas H. Heaton, of the U.S. GeologiCal Survey in Pa5adena, Calif.; Dr. Arch 

H. Johnston, of Memphis State 

University; Dr. Lyle D. McGinnis, of the Argonne, lll., national lab; 

Dr. Christopher G. Newhall and Dr. Randall G. Updike, of the U.S. Geological Survey in Reston, Va. ; 

Dr. Lawrence W. Braile, of Purdue 

University; and Dr. Ira R. Satter- field, of the Division of Geology 

and Land Survey in Rolla. 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 115 

10-19-90 

Southeast Missourian 

(Cape Girardeau, Mo.) 

Reprinted by permission 

"Parents. should be v_ery honest People who are skeptical of 

Doctors prepare 

for psychological 

impact of a quake 

~bou} the!f o~n .emotiOnal reac- Browning's prediction are planning 

uon, Callis sauL They ~hould not to carry on business as usual. 

put on ~ m~ _of bravery If they ~ Callis said he expects peOple will crum~ling m~1de~ _That creates dis- have a high level of anxiety in early 

trust'':' the ~hild. December with the heightened · Call~ said schools hl!ve an op- awareness of the stresses involved portumt~ to allay f~ m students "You can't worry your rie 

and the1r oarents 1f they take a • · d B · · · 1· · responsible approach. He recom- away,_ Sal ~r~y BernBy Tom Neumeyer 

Staff Writer 

Last in a series 

mended that schools have a · rea- hardt, directo~ of ~tiv1ty ban~ at 

bl · di r · Southeast Missoun State Umver-

~~ ~~a';e~ ~:~c~i~ sity. He spent ~984 !h£ough 1987 i_n 

CAPE GIRARDEAU- "Panic is much more dangerous than earthquakes," said lben Browning, a New Mexico scientist and business con- sult:lnt who .has forecast an increased chance· of a major earthquake occurring along the New 

Madrid Fault in early December. 

teachers; that teachers be confident southern Cah~o~ma and exper.•-

that they are adequately trained; enced the Whittier earthquake m 

that they be responsive to the fears ~~~ · h" . students and parents may have; and t 1

.t arou~d 7 am., JUSt as I 

that they implement disaster plans w~ gettm~ up, he reco.unted. "My 

calm! hen th . w1fe Laune was feedmg our 1-

y w e CITCumstances oc- year-old Jonathan Wh "t h" h c~ • · ~• lise S~hool administrators are being grabbed Jonat~an. yelled for me, Browning believes unusually high tidaJ forces 

will unleash seismic activity measuring 7.0 or greater on the Richter scale. An unusual alignment of the sun, moon aM Earth, coupled with 

the moon being closer to Earth than usual is behind Brownings forecast. - - - ' . 

· · · d h h and we stood m a doorway I re- cn!lclze , w et er they plan to member watchin the t · 1 h . hold classes or not on Dec. 3 and 4, . g wa er sp as - he said. As more schools announce mg out of the apartment pool. ~e closings peer ressure is increasing ~oor of the apartment was rolhng • P mwaves • the tendency for schools to close, Bernhard. t "d fi . ds h 1

. d 

· Seismologists have criticized his methodology 

as "i~valid ~ and ."ineff7ctive." They say no cor- relation extsts smce ttdal forces put relatively 

he~d. ~ ~ worn Callis predicted that people will in. nearby Whittier, the quake's 

stay close to their home and family ep1center, suffered from stress bemembers Dec. 3 and 4 and some cause their houses were damaged 

may leave the area the~. "I expect seyen;Jy. "It was hard on them," he 

little amount of stress on the fault. 

Regardless, anxiety levels are increasing in some" people who live in 

this earthquake-prone region. 

Earthquake seminars are attracting 

more-than-capacity crowds in St 

Louis; Cape Girardeau public 

schools and other schools have decided against holding classes Dec. 

3 and 4; and some parents plan to 

stay home with their children those 

days. 

Families are assembling disaster 

swvivaJ. kits with food, water and 

persona] necessities stashed in cov- ered containers. People have ex- hausted local inventories of me- chanica] can openers and other 

items, both old and new, they think 

ther might need in the event of a maJor earthquake occurring. 

"There has already been an emo- tionaJ toll," said Ken Callis, a licensed psychologist in private practice in Ca{le Girardeau whose 

speciality 1s family and child 

psychology. 

While some people are skeptical 

about the prediction and others are gathering preparedness information, CaJiis ~d some already havo 

reached a point of hysteria and are in a st:lte of panic. 

"They are so fearful, it is affecting their functioning," Callis said. 

"They are so agit:lted they are missing work and showing physical 

symptoms such as headaches, 

stomach-aches, irrit:lbility and lack 

of sleep. • that the people who stay will have a s:lld. But they accepted what hapCalhs said he knows of two break in their usual activities- it pened to them. They had been 

families who have packed their will not be business as usual, • he living out !her~ for 30 years." 

belongings and moved away since ~d. Bernhardt s:ud he ~ell ~haky after 

the 4.6 Richter-scale tremor of "If there is a balance there, the quake, wondenng 1f another 

Sept. 26. They plan to stay away realistically, attending to the emo- large quake would occur as an 

until after the first of the year, he tiona! and physical safety of one's aft~~hock. He said he was iO, ·~a 

said One oarent of a pre-Schooler family is normaJ, • said Callis. "If bu1ldmg set on large rollers wheri, . · . . they are immobilized by their fears, an aftershock occurred two weeks sa•~ hc;r son.often ·~ m ~before with their lives disrupted for days later. Such buildings roll with the 

gomg mto hiS mommg sess1ons !>e- and weeks, that's a problem." waves from a quake, he said. . . · .. cause the _school has da1ly Some business owners are con- "Due to the frequency of trcnioi:S 

earthq_uake drills. cemed with having sufficient man- in California, people take it cal in-. CaJhs recommended th~ parents power on the days the quake is ly," he said. "They take it as calrr\ly_ and teachers ~e a . rationaJ a{l- predicted because some people in- as we take thunderstorms in spnn·g proa~h to the Sltuali<.>n ~ avo~d tend to stay home with theiT chi!- around here."· · · · creatmg needless anx1ety m chi!- dren B h dt "d h · k' dren · . ern ar sat e 1s ta .1ng 

"P~rents should spend time AI! Wallhausen, assistant ,to th~ B~owning's prediction in s_tride. l;ie 

gathering factuaJ information on pres1dent. of ~outh~ast M1ssoun s:lld people should not pan1c. 

what an earthquake is and is not," S~e UmveTSJty, said the sc~ool Bemha:qt said: "Regardless p( 

the psychologist ~d. "They should ~ill grant leave requests to umver- the skepttc•sm Browning has geii'e?.-

share it with their children and put s•ty employees who request the~ ated, we all need to be prepared-. f~ it on their children's level so they on ~ose two days. Instructors Will an earthquake whenever it happe~ s'; can understand it. dec1de whether student absen.ces You need to know what to do driel 

"Parents should not pass· judg- are excused on those days, he sa~d. where to go when and if it happenS: 

ment on their children's fears," Otherwise, it will be business as and carry on with your daily life> :·· CaJiis said. "The children should be usual at the university, said ··we should not change our lives 

allowed to express their fears. Wallhausen. because of it." he said. "U · 

Younger ones can use dolls or draw Sister Jeanne Goessling, principaJ fortunat~ly, a lot of people are get;: 

if. they cannot verbalize. Kids of St. Mary's Cathedral Grade ltng pantc-struck." : should not be ridiculed for their School here, plans to keep the Information on earthquake 

fears." school open Dec. 3 and 4. She said preparedness can be obtained frQril 

He recommended that children that maintaining normalcy is best. several sources, including the Com• 

and students be involved in "I lived in California and experi- munity Counseling Center, Centet 

disaster-preparation activities. This enced none of this kind of for Earthquake Studies at Southeast 

gives them ~ore of a feeJ!ng ~f hysteria; she sai~. "We can't let Miss?uri State University, the 

control, whtch can lessen their fear rule our hves. • She dis- Amencan Red Cross and public ~ 

stress levels, he said. couraged instilling fear in children. braries. · 
116 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO. EARTHQUAKE 

10-21-90 

Arkansas Gazette 

Reprinted by permission of the 

Arkansas Democrat-Gazette 

/ :;'1·----<" / \ 

... . . 

\ 

/ 

Quiet scientist's quake forecastMornsiGazette Staff 

shakes up controversy, critici-sm 

.OCopyright 1990 Arkansaa\Gazette 

By Phoebe Wall Howard 

Gazette Staff 

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M.- Then Browning's pace is slow and deliberate as he steers 

toward the back room of a local diner. 

He's wearing ankle-high house slippers to 

ease the pain in his feet. 

It's 6:30 a.m. on a Friday. Browning, 72, 

slides a chair from under the table, delicately 

lowering himself onto the seat. 

Eventually the scientist is joined by 17 

friends for a breakfast chat, the latest in a 

twice-monthly ritual that began in 1971. 

The group includes an artist, a former politician, a mathematician, an astronomy 

teacher and an engineer. 

Browning is not so easily categorized. 

He is an inventor, a high-tech optics 

researcher and a climatologist. He has 

helped develop military weapons, searched 

for a cancer ctire and taught on major college 

campuses. 

On this morning, he jokes and laughs with 

hiS colleagues. But he solemnly asks a visiting reporter to refrain from taking notes. 

Browning despises media attention. He 

describes it as "fabulously repugnant." 

He has been dogged by reporters for the 

past year, since he triggered a national 

controversy by forecasting that an earthquake could rock Middle America in early 

December. "Why not someone else?" he asked during 

a recent interview, his tone tinged with 

regret that his research has so disrupted his 

life. "I feel like I'm under a. rain cloud." 

During a speech last fall, Browning anSee OUAKE/1 OA 
nounced that the New Madrid 

Fault, which reaches into North- east Arkansas, stood a 50 percent 

chance of being hit by an earthquake between Dec. I and 5. 

Since then, he said he has re- fused at least 1,000 requests for 

interviews. As the date draws nearer, pressure and publicity have 

intensified, and critics have 

emerged from all corners of the 

country to condemn his prognostications. Established earthquake 

scientists say Browning's theories are flawed and that he is generating public fear in a drive for personal publicity. 

Browning refuses to acknowledge his critics. 

But his wife Florence, a former 

military nurse, said she worries 

that the constant badgering will worsen her husband's health. 

Their phone sometimes rings until 

2 a.m., she said. 

Browning has survived chronic 

skin cancer and two heart attacks. 

Last year, he was diagnosed with 

diabetes. Recently he had surgery to relieve bad circulation in his 

legs. He wears slippers because 

shoes put too much pressure on his 

healing skin. 

His health problems have re- duced his speaking schedule, but 

Browning still shows up for work 

everyday at Summa Medical Corp. 

in Albuquerque. 

"His mind· is just something else - his health hasn't affected that," 

said Neil Tucker, vice president of 

Summa, whose office is steps from 

the overstuffed blue chair in which 

Browning does ·much of his work. "He absorbs everything. He is 

very eclectic in his thinking. He's a historian, he's an economist, he's 

an engineer, he's an expert in the 

area o.~ optics, biology and chemistry ... 

Over the past two decades, 

Browning also has served as a consultant to businessmen and· farm- ers, forecasting weather trends and 

their possible effects on crops and 

businesses. 

Roger Spencer of Chicago has 

commissioned Browning several 

times to lecture his company's employees about climatology. Spencer 

is first vice-president of Paine 

Webber Inc., a leading brokerage 

and financial services firm. 

"He's a card-carrying scientist," 

Spencer said of Browning. "I've 

been around him with other really 

top-gun scientists. When he starts to talk, they shut up really fast." 

But when it comes to earthquakes, most experts say Browning 

doesn't know what he's talking 

about. 

"I feel that, in terms of earthquakes, seismology and geophysics, I don't regard him as a scientist. It's just that scientists get into 

trouble when they step outside 

their field. It has happened to Nobel Prize winners," said Arch 

Johnston, director of the Center 

for Earthquake Research and Information at Memphis State University. · 

APPENDIX C-TilE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 

" I feel that, in terms 

of earthquakes, 

seismology and 

geophysics, I don't 

regard him as a 

scientist. It's just that 

scientists get into 

trouble when they 

step outside their 

field. It has happened 

to Nobel Prize 

winners." 

-Arch Johnston, 

Center for Earthquake Research 

and Information 

Some detractors have gone even further. Evelyn Garriss, Browning's daughter, said one person 

called their home and accused him 

of being an Arab terrorist trying to create mass hysteria. · 

·•flenaissance·.·.man' 

Actually;Browning was born ano , raised in Texas. His mother was a ·native of Mountain Home, Ark. 

His father was a cotton farmer. After finishing high school in 

1933, he studied zoology and physiology at the University of Texas at Austin, where he earned his mas- ter's and doctorate degrees. He also . earned bachelor's degrees in physics and mathematics, with minors 

in genetics and bacteriology. He 

has taught at the University of 

Texas and the University of Pennsylvania. 

The New York Times, in a 1976 

profile, called Browning a "Renais- sance man." 

His resume is extensive. 

During World War II, he was an Air Force test pilot, flying battleweary aircraft to make sure it was properly repaired. He also worked 

with Disney Studios ·producing 

military flight training films during 

the war. 

After the war, he worked as a weapons systems imalyst at Sandia . National Laboratory in Albuquerque, whiCh develops high-tech mil, 

itary weapons. He was part of a 

team that searched for peacetime uses for atomic weapons. He also 

worked at the Bell Aircraft Corp. in 

Buffalo, N.Y., where he helped develop a delivery system for the 

hydrogen bomb. Browning said he holds 68 pa- tents. Among them is a hand-held 

instrument for the blind called 

"hear-a-light." The user points the 

device toward an object, such as a stoplight, and it makes a sound 

that indicates whether the light is 

red, yellow or green. 

Browning also developed an interest in the Earth's climate be- cause, he says, it affects everyday 

life and shapes history. 

"As a biologist, I have dealt with 

many species. My very favorite one is the human race," he said. 

Browning and his daughter are in 

their 14th year of publishing The 

Browning Newsletter. For $225 a 

year, subscribers have monthly ac. cess to Browning's research on cli- mate trends. Farmers, commodities investors and businessmen 

around the world dominate the list 

of subscribers, Browning said. He 

refused to reveal its circulation. 

Dwaine Rogge sits on the news- letter's advisory board and has 

known ·Browning about 14 years. 

Rogge also is president of Com- merce Financial Group, an invest- ment company in Lincoln, Neb. 

About six years ago, Rogge said, 

he read in the newsletter that 

growing seasons would ·shorten. Rogge advised his brother, a 

far'!'er in Nemaha ·County, Neb., to switch to a variety. of soybean 

that matures quickly. The last two 

growing seasons indeed have been 

shorter, Rogge said, and his broth-· 

er's soybean fields are producing at least three to five bushels more per · acre than his neighbors,' who still 

use longer-maturing beans. 

To determine climate trends, 

Browning refers to more than just 

meteorological records. He uses such things as tree rings and 

France's wine growing records. 

Businessman Nelson Bunker 

Hunt of Dallas, son of late billionaire oil man H. L. Hunt, has used 

Brown's forecasts to help decide 

locations for offshore drilling rigs ·and avoid possible hurricanes. 

"I've always had confidence in 

Browning's work,'' Hunt said. 

"But nobody's infallible." · 

Earthquake studies 

Browning started studying 

earthquakes .and volcanoes iri the 

late 1950s. 

Recently he determined that at the beginning of December, the sun and the moon will align and come 

closer to the Earth than they have 

in nearly 70 years. The gravitational pull created by these forces, 

Browning theorizes, will create a strain so severe that the Earth's crust may rupture along already 

weakened faults. 

Browning refuses to apply the 

word "prediction" to his work. Instead, he says that "conditions will 

be favorable" for an earthquake in 

three areas: The New Madrid 

Fault, which runs from Marked 

Tree; Ark., through the Missouri 

boot heel to Cairo, Ill.; the Hayward Fault in northern California; 

and Tokyo Bay in Japan. Browning's research suggests that the two American faults could experience 

quakes ranging from 7 to 7.25 on the Richter scale. Tokyo's could· 

reach 8.25. 

Browning's latest prediction 

gained credence because of reports 

that he correctly forecast la'st fall's 

San Francisco Bay area earthquake, which killed at least 62 

people. 

One Chicago man said that Oct. 

10, 1989, Browning forecast San 

Francisco and New Madrid earth- · 

quakes during a speech to the 

J:;qujpment Manufacturers Institute, a trade association that was 

meeting in San Francisco. 

James Ebbinghaus, vice presi117 

10-21-90 

Arkansas Gazette 

(Continued) 
APPENDIX C-TilE PREDICTION IN TilE PRESS 119 

10-21-90 

Dallas Morning News 

Reprinted with permission of The Dallas Morning News 

Analysis fails to quell fears of predicted quake 

By Lee Hancock 

Staff Writer of The Dallas Morning News 

At first, it barely stirred across the nation's heartland. ButWith summer, its rumbling grew, and. in tHe last month, it's become a monster that even the nation's top 

scientists can't stop:;; 

On Thursday, 11 quake experts assembled by the U.S. Geological Survey issued a 

39-page report rejecting . the prediction of 

researcher lben l3rowning of an earth· 

quake along the fault that runs from 

Marked Tree, Ark., into the Missouri bootheel. 

"Our panel found that lben Browning's 

record for predicting ·earthquakes is about· 

as good as that of sqmeone throwing darts 

at a calendar," said USGS officialWalt Hays. 

Mid-South and Midwest, entrepreneur~ are 

. cashing in on the panic. Earthquake· insurance, ~urvival kits and even a $99 videotape 

of Dr. Browning have been peddled in the 

seven states atop the fault. 

Anxiety escalated after a small tremor 

shook the region Sept. 26. And now, even 

NBC-TV is capitalizing on the hysteria. A 

miniseries, The Big One: The Great Los Angeles Earthquake, depicts how a controversial prediction of a huge quake comes true, 

It's the Great New Madrid Earthquake 

Panic, an emotionaitremor set off by a Sandia Park. N.M., man's prediction that a 

1 quake could roc~ the nation's midsection 

within 48 hours of Dec. 2. 

But emergency ·officials say the panel's 

effort may have come too late. Across the 

<!ev~tating Los Angeles. 

NBC publicity cites Dr. Browning's prediction along with last 

yea~'s San Francisco earthquake as 

proof that "other parts of our natioa are vulnerable" to a killer 

quake .like the one in the show, 

scheduled to air Nov. 11 and 12. 

Describing the New Madrid pre., 

diction, an NBC news release asks: 

"Was the 4.6 quake on Sept. 26 a sign 

of more to come?" . 

"It's just one more thing in a 

long sequence of unfortunate 

events that have done nothing but 

add. to people's concern," said 

Jerome Hauer, Indiana's emergency 

management director and chairman of the Central U.S. Earthquake 

Consortium, a seven-state planning 

agency.· 

The furor began laSt fall when 

Dr. Browning announced that he 

had calculated a SO-SO chance that a 

tremor measuring between 6.5 and 

7 on the Richter scale would hit the 

New Madrid fault Dec. 2. 

Dr. Browning, 72, a retired scientist with a doctorate in biology, 

publishes an investment newsletter 

outlining his theories on climate's 

effect on the global economy. He 

also claims to have predicted the 

San Francisco quake and other seismic events. 

Dr. Browning, who has refused 

interviews, contends that quakes 

and volcanoes are set off by the 

gravitational pull of the sun, the 

moon and of other planets. Those tidal forces ebb and flow in cycles. 

He theorizes that high periods of tidal forces are likely dates for seismic activity, and he contends that 

forces will be at a 167-year high, 

ready to set off quakes, on Dec. 2. 

As word of his New Madrid pre-

. 

diction began spreading early this fully understand Dr. Browning's 

year, legends . about the subter- prediction but couldn't discount it 

ranean fracture fueled alarm. because Dr. Browning's earlier 

The New Madrid fault is one of earthquake calls had been "verifithe most active in the United States. able home runs." 

In 1811, it unleashed the largest · And as he moved into the epi· 

temblors in U.S. history- quakes center of the New Madrid furor, 

that rang church bells in Boston other earth scientists began worry· 

and made the Mississippi Riyer run ing that history was repeating itself 

backwards. for Dr. Stewart. 

· Seismologists initally dismissed Dr. Stewart lost a professorship 

Dr. Browning's prediction for Dec. at the University of North Carolina 

2 as unworthy of serious considera- at Chapel Hill in the mid-19705 as a 

tion. The Central U.S. Earthquake result of backing an earlier quake 

Conso.rtium's pleas for a formal prediction. 

evaluation of the prediction were In 197S, he published a paper 

rejected by the National Earth- warning that bulges on the North 

quake Prediction Evaluation Coun- , Carolina coast might be precursors 

cil, a USGS-sponsOred Scientific to seismic activity. He and other 

group. geologists notified the Nuclear Reg-

"None of us anticipated the high ulatory Commission because a nulevel of putJ~c concern it would ' clear power plant w~ being built in 

cause and, in retrospect, I think it the area, said geologist Charles K. 

would have been better if we had 1 Ross. 

evaluated it in the spring," said , But then Dr. Stewart invited a 

Arch Johnston, a member of the na- : California psychic into the fray. He 

tional council and head of Memphis 1 wrote. at the time that he asked the 

State University's Center for Earth- , psychic to come to North Carolina 

quake Re8earch in Memphis, Tenn. . after reading about her earlier 

By summer, prediction furor was quake predictions in the National 

so high that one Arkansas school • Enquirer. 

district canceled classes for early He flew· her across North CaroDecember. Emergency officials saw lina, and as they passed over Wildemand for quake information sky- mington - the area where he norocket, and many planned disaster ticed the bulges - she declared 

drills near the predicted date to that a quake mea8uring 8 on the 

ease fear. Richter scale would hit within a 

As officials scrambled, earth sci- . year, probably on Jan.17, 1976. 

entists fumed that the hype was · The Wilmington area has no 

being fanned by one of their own, known faults and no recorded setsMissouri geologist David Stewart. mic activity, but Dr. Stewart emOr. Stewart, director of the Cen- braced the prediction and publiter for Earthquake Studies at South- cized it widely. The result: low-level 

east Missouri State University, be- panic until after Jan. 17, when nothgan touting Dr. Browning's theories ing happened. 

after visiting him and writing a "A great many people in North 

memo praising his theories early Carolina took the prediction serilast summer. ously because it seemed that a facIn interviews published nation- ulty member at the University of 

wide, Dr. Stewart said he didn't North Carolina was taking it seri-

"None of us anticipated 

the high level of public 

concern it would cause." 

- Arch Johnston, 

National Earthquake 

Prediction Evaluation 

Council 

ously," said David Dunn, then a geology professor at UNC-Chapel Hill. 

"His logic seemed identical to 

that he's using now," said Dr. Dunn, 

now dean at the University of Texas 

at Dallas school of natural sciences 

and mathematics. "He takes an undocumented claim, he says the individual has a track record of success 

and, therefore, he says, the individ· 

ual can't be ignored." 

Dr. Stewart said he won't apologize for arguing publicly that Dr. 

Browning's theories shouldn't be 

ignored. 

He issued a news. release Friday 

saying the USGS evaluation released Thursday didn~tdisprovePre 

Browning's theory- "by the scientific method." And in an interview, 

he said there are no parallels between his work with Dr. Browning's prediction and the North.Carolina debacle. 

"That was an unfortunate incident," he said. "It's not the same. 

Dr. Browning is not a psychic. He's 

a scientist, a genuine scientist." 

Goaded by regional alarm and 

Dr. Stewart's persistent, public support of Dr. Browning, the Central 

U.S. Earthquake Consortium in July 

again pleaded for scientific help. 

Finally, the . USGS ordered a 

study of the prediction. Experts 

huddled last month in Dallas to 

study it, and the result was 
118 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO. EARTHQUAKE 

10-21-90 

Arkansas Gazette 

(Continued) ·Sun 

. ~fownihg has calculaie9ihe ... ·. ·.··,· .·. .· 

" · cvector sum"oftidalioiciis onJh~~arth: ~ These are the coijlbinatior\91 ihiq)uil 

;6. of the sun and moon .••' .,, • 

.,. on the. ea.rth;s crusi .· .1' . . · ';...., _.. - .. · ...... •.·. " and work ·· ... · · •·· ····· 

~ essenti~ll~ like · · ·· · --..:.: .·., -...~-. 

. · • •• ocean t1des. 

Such ~ . 

tiiJai fo,ces .... ~ cantngger ...._ earthquakes and . ..,., 

volcanoes if they are ... 

ready to go. 

Browning uses the 

analogy of a loadedwhich, when the 1 

puiled, wHI ohly go 

Is loaded. Once th 

· 1orces are 

dent of the institute, said Browning forecast that the California area would shake sometime be- tween Oct. 15 and Oct. 17. lt shook 

the 17th. 

Browning acknowledged he 

made the forecast. 

Ebbinghaus also remembers that 

Browning said several times during 

the California speech that an 

earthquake could strike the New 

Madrid zone around Dec. 3, 1990. 

However, Ebbinghaus said, "We 

don't have a transcript." 

The press picked up on the New 

Madrid forecast after Browning 

mentioned it in a speech at the 

Missouri Governor's Conference on Agriculture in Lake Ozark, Mo., several weeks after the San Fran· 

cisco speech. The state of Missouri 

sits on the fault line. 

"I did not release the information to the public," he insisted. "It 

was leaked from a business talk. Panic can kill more people than an earthquake." 

The skeptics speak 

Skeptics contend Browning 

"predicts" a lot, while he claims 

only his successes. 

Some say Browning has created 

unnecessary panic from Arkansas to Tennessee to Missouri. Numer- ous school districts have anBrowning Is a 

7.0 to 7.2 on the Richter 

scale for the New Madrid 

Fault between Dec. t-5. 

The Hayward Fault in 

·California and Tokyo Bay, 

Japan will be under 

similar conditions as the 

NeW Madrid at the same 

time. The band includes 

roughly hall of the. earth's 

active seismic zcines. 

A' ex Cameron I Gazelle Slall 

" He absorbs 

everything. He is very 

eclectic in his 

thinking. He's a 

historian, he's an 

economist, he's an 

engineer, he's an 

expert in the area of 

optics, biology and 

chentistry ... " 

-Nell Tucker, . Summa Medical Corp. 

nounced plans to suspend classes 

in early December, and local, state · and federal authorities have re- sponded to public concern by 

drafting earthquake-response 

plans. 

A group of New Madrid Fault 

experts reviewed Browning's re- search and announced Thursday 

that his scientific methods are no more accurate than throwing diuts at a calendar. The group, the National Earthquake Prediction 

Evaluation Council, is an advisory 

board to the U.S. Geological Sur--

vey., 

Th.ose experts echoed another of 

Browning's vocal critics, Douglas 

A. Wiens. "The date of earthquakes cannot be predicted,'' said Wiens, a profes- sor of earth and planetary sciences at Washington University in St. 

Louis. He recently wrote a news- paper column, distributed nationally, that del)ounced Browning's 

theory. : . "Perhaps he actually believes ,wliat he's saying," Wiens said. "He 

may believe that his method is 

valid, not having apparently re-. 

searched other studies that have 

been done." 

Wiens and other scientists say 

research on the connection be- tween tidal forces and earthquakes 

has been inconclusive. 

"A number of people have done 

careful studies on the subject, taking into account a lot more factors 

than Browning," Wiens said. . Some critics say Browning's pur: 

pose is self-promotion. · "Nobody should make any plans on the basis of this prediction,". said Johnston of Memphis State. 

"He talks for a healthy fee. It creates a lot of interest. This kind; 

of thing we roll our eyes at." 

Browning's consulting fee is 

$2,500 a day. 

However, he has only made a handful of spe~ches over the last 

year because of his health, his 

daughter said. Previously, she said, 

Browning spent about half ~he year 

on the road. 

Early this year, Browning appeared in a videotape lecturing 

about the climate, geological events (including earthquakes and 

volcanoes) and their impact on the 

economy. He made the tape in 

February, after doctors gave him two weeks to live, his daughter 

said. The video sells for about 

$100. The money, Browning said, 

goes directly into a college trust fund for his grandchildren. ; Dr. David Stewart, .director of 

the Center for Earthquake Studies 

at Southeast Missouri State University in Cape Girardeau, Mo., is 

the only earthquake specialist in 

the country who has met with 

Browning in New Mexico to dis-· cuss his resei!tch. ' 

"I'm not endorsing what he. said at this point," Stewart said. "!, think he's a credible scientist who. 

deserves a fair lllld objective hear-. 

ing on the part . of the scientific 

community." 

Avoids the media 

During Browning's breakfast 

meeting, some friends mentioned 

they saw him on national television. Browning looks perplexed . .. "Really?" he responds. He lig• urea excerpts from his videotape are being broadcast by news orga_-

nizations that have never interviewed him. 

Browning has avoided the media 

because he believes non-scientists 

don't understand the science be· 

hind his theories. He says there's no point in discussion anyway. . . "Truth is the only thing that· stands the test of time," he said. 
120 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID~ MO, EARTHQUAKE 

1 0-21-90 10-21-90 

Dallas Morning News St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

(Continued) Reprinted by permission 

He Calls It 'A Fact' 

unveiled Thursday in St. Louis: 

Both Dr. Browning's prediction and 

his purported track record were debunked. 

"Most of his claimed successes 

are actually what I call post~ctions." Dr. Johnston said. "When 

you examine his record, it just 

doesn't hold up." 

Dr. Browning refused to provide 

data for the study,-stating in a brief 

lett~r_that he was.tOQ. busy and_be· 

lieved that the panel shouldn't 

form any policy because "the government has an unblemished 

record of screwing up everything it 

touches." ' 

Mr. Hauer hopes that the evaluation will quell regional fears, but he 

and others concede that it may be 

too late. 

More than a dozen schools in Ar· 

kansas, Missouri, Tennessee and In· 

diana have canceled classes or are 

considering closing Dec. 3 and 4. In 

Arkansas, Kentucky, Indiana and 

Missouri, emergency workers have 

scheduled quake drills on or near 

Dec. 2. Mississippi officials will air a 

2112-hour TV program on earthquake 

preparedness across the state next 

month. 

"We're seeing an extremely 

heightened level of awareness," 

said Jim Maher, Mississippi emer· 

gency management director. 

"We've got a lot of happy insurance 

salesmen around here." 

Worst of all for the jittery region, Dr. Browning has made another prediction. In an interview 

aired last week by Cape Giradeau, 

Mo., TV station KFVS, he warned 

that if a quake doesn't hit Dec. 2, it 

might on New Year's Eve. 

Whatever happens, emergency 

planners are resigned to more 

weeks of worry. 

"The real impact of this on our 

economy and our region won't be 

clear until well after Dec. 4," Mr. 

Hauer said. "But my biggest concern is that on Dec. 4, people are 

going to say, 'We've dodged the bullet, and there's nothing more to 

worry about.' The tragedy would be 

people becoming complacent and 

ignoring a real risk." 

State's Quake Expert Believes. In Psychic Phenomena 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

©1990, Stlouis Post-Dispatch 

·The director of the Center· for 

Eir.;thquake Studies at Southeast 

Missouri State University and an ad· 

viser to the state on earthqua,ke poli· 

cy says he believes in psychic 

phenomen~. 

David Stewart, director of the 

earthquake center, is the only seis· 

mologist to publicly support Iben 

Browning's prediction of a major 

quake in the New Madrid fault 

around DeC. 3. . . __ · .. · 

Stewart said he did not believe 

Browning was a psychic. But in 1976, 

while a professor at the Universicy of 

North carolina in Chapel Hill, Stewart backed a psychic's prediction for 

a major earthquake near Wilmington,·N.C. · 

Because of that position, he was 

denied tenure at the university. · 

In an interview Thursday, Stew· 

art, 52, said his views had not 

changed since a 1976 faculty meet· 

ing.when he said: "The psychic and 

the intuitive appr.oach to scientific 

"endeavor is both valid and valuable. 

Psychic phenomena is a fact." 

Three-fourths of Stewart's salary 

is paid by Southeast Missouri State 

UniverSity and one-fourth by the 

State Emergency· Management 

Agency. 

Stewart's support of psychic phe· 

nomena puts·him outside the main· 

stream of scientific thought and 

raises questions about the credibility 

of his support for Bro~ning, several 

scientists said. The scientists also 

.t:~ticized what they believed was Stewart's extreme interest in public· ly promoting Browning's prediction 

and method through the news media. . "I don't think a responsib.le scientist 

would do what he did" "in supporting 

Browning, said David Dunn, dean of 

the School 1 of Natural Sciences and 

Mathematics at the University of Tex· 

as at Dallas. 

Browning has forecast a 50·50 

chance of a quake in the New Madrid 

fault within 48 hours of Dec. 3. · ·Also on Thursday, a national panel 

of earthquake experts said that the 

prediction was not scientifically valid 

and that Browning had not predicted 

any previous earthquakes or volca· 

'noes, as he and his backers had 

claimed. Panel members with the Na· . tional Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council said further public con· cern about the Dec. 3 prediction was unwarranted. 

Stewart, who was not on the panel, 

has been alone among scientists in 

publicly suggesting that Browning's 

forecast has credence. 

Dunn,· of the University of Texas, 

was a colleague of Stewart's in the 

geology department at No_rth_ carolin'!. 

w_btn Sfewart-.br(mgbtin_a p~chic.lo 

investigate the-possibility-of an earth· 

quake in the Wilmington area. . Stewart said that one day In the fall 

of 1975, while he stood In line at a supermarket, he saw a quake predl~·. 

tion for Hawaii In. the National En· 

quirer by california psychic Clarissa 

Bernhardt. . Among other predictions Bernhardt 

has made in her career was that sci en· tists would accidentally shoot down a UFO with a laser beam and John Me· 

Enroe would retire from tennis to play 

baseball for the San Frimcisco Giants. 

Stewart said the Hawaii quake actu· 

ally occurred, as did twq others Bern· 

hardt had predicted. Other scientists 

hotly disputed ·those· claims, calling 

them unsubstantiated. · · · .. ·. Stewart said he had found data indi·· 

eating a possible earthquake . in the 

Wllmington.area, so he invited-Bern· 

hardt to North carolina in December 

'1975. They new and drove around the 

"region, with Bernhardt. advising him 

.of her feelings about earthquakes at 

specific locations. . · .• Bernhardt then issued a prediction 

that a quake measuring 8.0 on the 

Richter scale would strike the Wil· 

'niingtoil area within a year, most like· 

ly within three days of Jan. 17, 1976. 

Such a quake ·would have been the 

largest in the. history of the eastern 

United States. . · · "Since her first three [predictions] were good, we. cannot ignore the possi· 

bllity that her fourth may also be 

,, ... 

llhe psychic and the 

intuitive approach to 

scientific endeavor is 

both valid and valuable. 

Psychic phenomena is a 

fact.'' 

gqod," Stewart said at the time.· 

Insurance agents -were swamped 

with calls for quake insurance. Some 

people made plans to leave town on t~at .date and emergency prepared· 

nes5.officials warned them not to pan· 

ic. The quake never happened. . Browning's prediction has caused 

similar reactionS in Missouri, Illinois 

and other states where an earthquake 

in the New Madrid fault could· be 

damaging. 

"The parallels between the Wil· 

mington prediction and thiS one with 

Browning are pr~tty striking," said one earthquake expert who asked not 

to be Identified. "Both predictions ~re 

based on the flimsiest possible sclen· 

tific evidence." 

Arch Johnston, a seismologist at 

Memphis State University, said the Bro~ning furor also is reminiscent of a scare in 1982 along the SalJ ~ndreas 

laulUn.:Califomi.a:.At that.time,-SOme. one with-no background in seismology 

predicted a quake would hit because 

of the alignment of celestial objects. 

"I'm very concerned that .we haven't learned our lessons from past 

episodes," Johnston said. Stewart was not connected with the San Andreas 

scare. 

Stewart said that for scientists to 

bring up the Wilmington psychic pre· 

diction now Is "character assassina· 

tion. As far as I'm concerned, this 

Clarissa Bernhardt thing is · ancient 

history." · . Stewart said Browning's prediction 

is "a totally different ball of wax," 

appearing to have a scientific basis. · · "He is going beyon~ the sdentlflc 

method," Stewart" said. "I just call it 

judgment." · ·· · 

Several scientists said Stewart was responsible for needlessly causing 

public anxiety by giving Browning's 

prediction undue credence in inter· 

views with reporters and public 

speeches. 

Stewart said he simply makes the 

point that any open-minded scientist 

should consider the possibility that 

Browning's method works because .of 

Browning's record. 

Stewart said he would have to study 

the national panel's report before 

commenting on whether it effectively 

rebutted Browning's claimed track 

record. 

Stewart has been director of the 

Center for. Earthquake· Studies, at 

Cape Girardeau, since It opened In 

April 1989. He holds a doctorate In 

geophysics from the University of 

Missouri at Rolla. · He joined the North carolina facul· 

ty In 1971. After he was denied tenure 

and given a. grace period, Stewart left 

the university· In 1978: He then ran a 

publishing'· compa!lY- an.d became a 

best·Selilng author Of bOOJts on nl;ltUral 

childbirth and midwifery. 

In 1988, he_. be,:a~e the executive 

director of the Central United StateS 

Earthquak~_'·consqrtlum; a group of. qua~e. ·preparedne5s·.omcials .. Later 

that year he joined the Southeast Miss· 

9uri state r~cu.i~y.:· 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 

Quake Adviser Gets 

Vote OfConfidenc.e 

By William Allen 

Of the Poat·Diapatch Stafl 

Missouri's lop emergency management olflclal ~eked earthquake sci· 

entlst David Stewart on Monday, sayIng Stewart's belief In psychic 

phenomena Is Irrelevant to his role as 

an adviser to the state on quake 

policy. 

Stewart has done an "outstanding 

job" o( alerting the public to the need 

to prepare for a major quake - when· 

ever it happens, said R.D. Ross, director of the state's Emergency Manage· 

ment Agency." 

Stewart Is a professor and director 

ot the Center lor Earthquake Studies 

at Southeast Missouri State University, 

In Cape Girardeau. He Is the only seismologist to publicly support lben 

Browning's prediction or a 50·50 

chance for a major qu.ake In the New 

Madrid fault around Dec. 3. 

Last week, a national panel of 

quake experts called the prediction 

sclenUflcally Invalid. 

Several scientists have criticized 

Stewart tor supporting the prediction, 

saying bls actlons parallel his 1976 

support of a psychic's prediction for a 

quake In North Carolina - a quake 

that never happened. 

10-23-90 

St. Louis 

Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Earthquake-or Earthquack? 

On 3 December in southeastern Missouri, 

schools will be closing, factories will be 

shutting down, and families will be fleeing 

to safer ground. Why? Because that's the 

day iconoclast scientist lben Browning has 

predicted a killer earthquake will strike the 

New Madrid area of Missouri, 250 kilometers southeast of St. Louis. 

121 

10-26-90 

Science 

Reprinted by permission. 

Science, 250 (4980), C AAAS 

if he had pulled his dates out of a hat, they 

concluded. 

The NEPEC panel has finished criticizing 

Browning's work, but individually some 

panelists have additional complaints about 

the media. Like many other geophysicists, 

they concluded that Midwesterners didn't 

get much help from the media in dealing 

with the unsettling prediction. "A lot of the 

news people have been very noncritical," 

says Heaton. The media treatment of the 

science often consisted of statements by 

scientist A in favor of Browning's prediction 

and by scientist B questioning its validity. 

Under other circum-

~~ stances, this journalistic 

l

,s: ploy might keep news sto-

~ ries objective. But many 

scientists noticed that i 

Although no one has yet successfully predicted an earthquake anywhere in the world 

with the accuracy that Browning is claiming, 

his forecast gained credence with residents 

of three states because news reports have 

credited him with a number of successes, 

including the prediction oflast year's Lorna 

Prieta earthquake in California. Such is the 

social upheaval in Missouri that a reluctant 

National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation 

Council (N~PEG) fe_lt compelled_to exam~ 

ine Browning's claims. Their verdict? You 

could predict the date of an earthquake just 

as accurately if you threw darts at a calendar. 

To calm jumpy Midwesterners, the NEPEC 

group released last week a 

report citing numerous 

objections to the particulars of Browning's method. 

For one, the peaks in crustal 

strain caused by tides are 

tiny and peaks essentially 

the same size as December's have occurred in recent years without effect. 

The group summed up 

with the claim that "there 

does not appear to be a 

theoretical basis for Browning's prediction, and in fact, 

it appears theoretically implausiblt:." And even if 

Iconoclast. !ben Browning 

has the Midwsest buzzing by 

predicting a big quake for early 

December. 

journalists were relying 

heavily on David Stewart of 

Southeast Missouri State 

University in the role of 

scientist A. Stewart is one 

of the few credentialed scientists, if not the only one, 

to publicly defend Browning, and some observers familiar with a bit of history 

have serious reservations 

about Stewart's suitability 

as a news source. 

According to James 

Devine of the U.S. GeoIn a report issued last week, an ad hoc 

working group ofNEPEC disputed Brown~ 

ing's claims at nearly every tum. To begin 

with, they could find no firm scientific 

support for his methods. Browning, a Ph.D. 

in biology and a business consultant, arrived 

at his conclusion by calculating how the 

tides raised in Earth's crust by the sun and 

moon-tides just like those raised in the 

ocean-periodically increase the strain on 

faults. He noted that within a couple of days 

of 3 December the sun, Earth, and the 

moon will be lined up and the moon will be 

especially close to Earth, producing one of 

the greatest tidal strains of the century. 

Browning then looked for places around 

the world where faults have had time to 

accumulate most of the strain needed to 

break them again. The New Madrid fault 

produced three huge temblors~ach the 

size of the great 1906 San Francisco quakein 1811-1812. Putting New Madrid's obvious potential together with a tidal trigger, 

Browning came up with a prediction that 

there is a 50% probability of a magnitude 

6.5 to 7.5 earthquake in the New Madrid 

region between 1 and 5 December. 

. Browning was on to a physical mechanism 

the experts coutd not understand, the group 

asked, why hadn't any of the numerous 

searches of the past few decades for a tideearthquake link turned up a reliable statistical connection? 

Besides Browning's science, NEPEC investigated his track record. The 11-member 

NEPEC working group decided not to rely 

on reports from witnesses, as the media had, 

of Browning's Lorna Prieta prediction. Instead, the group obtained a transcript of 

Browning's talk given in San Francisco the 

week before the 17 October quake. According to the report, the transcript revealed 

that the prediction consisted of the statement that on or about 16 October "there 

will probably be several earthquakes around 

the world, Richter 6+, and there may be a 

volcano or two." There was no mention of 

the North American continent much less the 

Bay Area. And the NEPEC report notes that 

a quake of that size strikes somewhere around 

the world once every 3 days on average. 

To check his other predictions, the members of the working group compared 

Browning's 20 days of predicted "high geologic danger" in the period 1985-89 with 

actual earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. 

Browning's success rate was no better than 

.logical .Survey in Reston, in 19'7 4 Stewart, 

then on the faculty· of the University of 

North Carolina at Chapel Hill, was predicting that a magnitude 6+ earthquake would 

strike the Wilmington, North Carolina, area 

the next year. On the basis of what he saw as 

geophysical precursors, Stewart asked the 

governor to close down a nearby nuclear 

power plant. 

When the state of North Carolina requested 

the USGS's advice, the Survey decided that 

Stewart's evidence did not even warrant an 

intensive study of the area. According to 

Devine, who helped prepare the USGS response, Stewart then became involved in an 

effort to use paranormal means to refine the 

prediction. On at least one occasion, Stewart 

flew over the area with a psychic. 

All this doesn't mean Midwesterners are 

safe, of course. Although the NEPEC panel 

disputes Browning's specifics, it points out 

that the New Madrid area is a reasonable place 

for something serious to happen sometime. 

So, sales of the video of Browning pitching 

his prediction at $99 a shot could still be 

brisk. And then there's his prediction that the 

U.S. government will collapse in 1992 after 

massive crop failures. NEPEC declined to 

comment on that one. 

• RICHARD A. KE~ 
122 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

10-29-90 

Newsweek 

Newsweek, Inc. All rights reserved. 

Reprinted by permission 

Quake, RatHe 

and Roll 

The Midwest gets ready 

A few years after the last big earthquake hit Marked Tree, Ark., in 

1812, explorer Henry Schoolcraft 

wrote that "The rivers they boiled like a 

pot over coals/ And mortals fell prostrate, 

and prayed for their souls." Now the 

town's 3,201 citizens are preparing for another big one-:--predicted to strike around 

Dec. 3-and they're about as ready for an 

earthquake as any small town can be. The 

school has been practicing earthquake 

drills, and the mayor's office has obtained 

a list of who owns heavy equipment and 

two-way radios. "I think we're in pretty 

good shape," says Marked Tree Mayor 

Lawrence Ashlock, who has also insured 

all city property against quake damage. "I 

don't think it's gonna happen, but there's 

no need to take any chances." 

The man behind the earthquake preparations is 72-year-old Then Browning, a 

New Mexico climatologist who predicts 

quakes on the basis of unusual tidal forces 

and alignment of the planets. While the 

method is disdained by mainstream geologists, his prediction of a quake registering 

as high as 7.5 on the Richter scale somewhere along the 120-mile New Madrid 

fault (stretching from northeast Arkansas 

to Cairo, Ill.) is being taken seriously; 

Browning has taken credit for predicting 

Memphis _TENN · 

A marked town? Children 

prepare for another big one 

Francisco quake after saying 

that on "the 16th of October 

... There will probably be several earthquakes around the 

world, Richter six plus, and 

there may be a volcano or STEVE KEESEE-ARKANSAS GAZETIE two." Yet because Browning's 

last year's devastating San Francisco Bay prediction was made in San Francisco, 

Area quake within a day of its occurrence, people assumed he meant the city. "These 

as well as the quakes in Nicaragua in 1972 are what I call 'postdictions,' "quips Johnand the San Fernando Valley in Califor- ston. "He just picks a time of geologic 

nia in 1971. danger and if something happens at that 

Many experts say Browning's forecasts time then he claims it as a prediction." 

are shaky. "The predictions have very lit- Browning refused to answer calls to his 

tle scientific content,'' warns geophysicist New Mexico home. His wife said that sevArch Johnston, director of the Tennessee- eral weeks ago he decided not to grant any 

based Center for Earthquake Research more interviews because of poor health, 

and Information. The scientists don't stop and because he says interviews were inwith New Madrid. A 35-page study re- fringing on his work time. Meantime, 

leased last week takes issue with the lat- Marked Tree isn't taking any chances. 

est prediction and with Browning's previ- But with precautions taken, they're not 

ous picks; while Browning predicted that too shaken up about the future. "We're 

natural disasters would occur on certain having a Fault Festival on the second and 

dates, he didn't actually predict where the third of November,'' Mayor Ashlock says. 

quakes would happen. For example, "It's called Quake, Rattle and Roll." 

Browning claims he predicted the San JOHN ScHWARTZ with PETER ANNIN 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 123 

HAKY 

Earthquake experts 

say predictions aren't 

scientifically valid 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

T HE QUAKEBUSTERS have landed. 

And they're zapping Iben Browning's 

forecast of a Dec. 3 earthquake with a 

barrage of evidence and analysis. 

A team of 11 earthquake experts convened by 

the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation 

Council asked the question: Is Browning's 

prediction for a quake along the New Madrid fault 

scientifically_Valid? -

_I~ a word, the panel said; "No!" 

The latest version of Browning's forecast is for a 

50·50 chance of a quake around Dec. 2·3 and 

ranging from 6.5 to 7.5 on the Richter scale, the 

panel said. He bases the forecast on an expected 

peak in tidal forces related to'the positions of the 

sun and moon. These forces are said to focus o:t a certain band 

of latitude in the Northern Hemisphere. They 

could trigger quakes on the New Madrid and other 

faults where scientists who have detailed 

knowledge of the faults say stress is gradually 

building, Browning said. 

In releasing a report on their findings earlier 

this month, the quake experts concluded that 

Browning had failed to accurately predict 

earthquakes or volcanoes, as he and his supporters 

have claimed (see related story on this page). 

Browning, who has no formal training in geology or 

seismology, has declined to comment on the 

panel's report. 

The panel also collcluded that there was no "credible evidence" that a damaging quake was any more likely on the New Madrid fault Dec. 2·3 

than during any other two-day period. 

Here are the panel's four main critiques of the 

scientific validity behind Browning's forecast · Is the general concept that tides trigger 

quakes valid? 

"Despite years of study, the question of tidal 

triggering does not yet have a definitive answer." 

the report said. Several studies reported a positive 

correlation and many found no correlation. 

"Perhaps the most common problem with 

published studies of the correlation between 

earthquakes and tides is a misuse of statistical 

methods," the panel reported. Another study relied 

on by Browning, published in 1968, was shown in a 1970 paper to have been based on mathematical , 

errors. Among other weaknesses, Browning's · -~~ 

calculation neglects the fact that the entire Earth 

is elastic and deforms over a broad region in ~-. 

response to tidal pulls. The tidal forces produce 

stresses that are "much smaller" than the stresses regularly applied on the fault by surrounding · 

geologic materials. 

Taking these complexities into account, 

calculations by the national panel showed the New 

Madrid fault was exposed several times in the past two years to tidal stresses almost identical to those 

expected on Dec. 2·3 - with no major quakes. 

Browning assumes that quakes strike after a slow increase of strain on a fault buildS to a critical 

amount: which is triggered by minor tidal forces. 

That assumption is too simplistic, the panel said. 

In theory and in practice, fault behavior is much more complex, the report said. 

How iikely is a magnitude 6.5 to 7.5 quake in 

tbe New Madrid seismic zone? 

Browning's 50·50 prediction for Dec. 2·3 may seem statistically "safe," since he is technically 

saying, as he once put it, "That means maybe, but 

maybe not" But a closer look shows that his odds 

actually represent a greatly increased chance of a 

quake. 

The most widely quoted scientific probabilities 

for a magnitude 7 quake in the fault boil down to 1. 

chance in 60,000 for any two-day period. So · · 

Browning's 50-50 forecast over two days increases 

the odds 30,000 times, said Arch Johnston, one of 

the national panel members and a seismologist at Memphis State University. 

For Browning to suggest that a "minor'' stress change from tidal forces could increase the 

likelihood of a quake by that much "is outside the 

range of responsible, supportable science and in 

the realm of pseudo-science and personal 

conjecture," Johnston said. 

Browning told the panel that he picks specific 

earthquakes by reviewing scientific literature. He 

looks for areas within his chosen band of latitude:~: 

where sufficient strain has built up in a fault, ,;;:_ 

where enough time has passed that another quake 

is likely or wh.ere there are other signs of stress. ·· 

The national panel concluded that even though 

the New Madrid seismic zone carries a "long-term 

large earthquake potential," there is "absolutely no 

scientific basis for selecting New Madrid from 

among other seismic zones as th.e site of a major 

earthquake on Dec. 2·3, 1990." 

The New Madrid fault runs more than 100 miles 

from north.eastem Arkansas through southeastern 

Missouri and into the southern tip of Illinois. 

Browning has relied on outdated estimates of 

strain buildup in the fault - estimates that seismol· 

ogists now consider too large. He also has mistaken· 

ly assumed that that equates with "imminent fall· 

ure" of the fault, the report said. 

How likely Is It that a quake would be triggered 

by the high tide around Dee. 3? 

The panel found that the strength of the tidal peak 

would not be "materially above" that of a peak that 

occurred on the fault in 1988. 

10-30-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

This poses the question "why th.e earlier condition 

did not trigger the earth.quake," the report said. 

Natural processes such as weather fronts, h.eavy 

rainfall and high river stages can put higher stress 

on the fault than tidal forces and still not trigger a quake, according to a report in June by Johnston 

and St. Louis University's Brian Mitchell. Mitchell, 

wh.o initiated that report, also was a member of the 

national panel. Both seismologists specialize in the 

New Madrid fault. 

The national panel rejected Browning's claim that 

the chances for a..quake are enhanced because1990 

falls 179 years after the start of the 18U·l-2. se· quence of great New Madrid earthquakes. The tides 

exhibit a similar 179-year period, he says, so the 

Dec. 2·3 peak may be a repeat of the 1811-12 earth· 

quake events. . But using the same comput~r program Browning 

used to calculate tidal forces, the panel's calcula· 

tions showed the Udal period to be different The 

tidal peak that corresponds with the one expected 

Dec. 2·3 actually occurred at the end of 1813, well 

after the start of the great quakes. 

Mitchell and Johnston had shown that only one of 

the five major earthquake episodes in the fault since 

1811·12 came at a time of peak tidal forces. That 

peak- around Dec. 16, 1811- was not unusually 

large, Mitchell said. In fact, larger peaks had oc· 

curred earlier that year. 

Do Browning's data and predictions support a 

correlation between tidal forces and geological events like quakes and volcanoes? 

Not only does no link exist between earthquakes 

in the New Madrid seismic zone and high tidal 

peaks, but there's no such link for quakes around the 

world, the panel said. 

To come to that conciusion, panel members obtained a catalog of earthquakes from September 

1985 to September 1990 that were greater than 

magnitude 6.5. That's the lower limit predicted for 

New Madrid. The catalog was prepared by National 

Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colo. 

The scientists compared the "dates of geological 

danger" picked by Browning In a key 1985 docu- ment with the actually recorded earthquakes. To be 

conservative, they expanded the "danger date win· 

dow" to three days on either side of the date picked by Browning. · 

The national paoel found that of the 182 quakes 

during the three-year period, 14 fell within Browning windows. Random picking would have hit on 13.7 quakes. · 

Browning could have done as well "by throwing 

darts at a calendar," said panel member Duncan 

Agnew, a geophysicist at the University of California at San Diego. 
124 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

10-30-90 Panel Analyzes analysis of them by a special panel of the 

National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation St. Louis Post-Dispatch Council: 

Reprinted by permission B · • R d • Claim: At a business meeting in San rownmg ecor Francisco on Oct 10, 1989, Browning · · predicted the Oct. 17 Loma Prieta 

I BEN BROWNING calls them earthquake in the San Francisco ar~ 

"projections" for dates with geological Analysis: A transcript of Browning's talk 

danger. Earthquake experts call them showed that he had said only: "There will 

"predictions." - protiably be severateartAqualtE!$-aro1!Jld-!he The bottom line in this war of semantics. is world, Richter 6-plus, and there may be a that Browning and his supporters claim that volcano or two" around Oct. 16. on several occaSions he accurately picked The national council's report concluded: 

dates and locations where earthquakes or "Because L Browning did not specify any 

volcanoes erupted. . location or a magnitude, he can hardly be 

Here is a list of those claimS and the given credit for a successful prediction." 

11-8-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Qua.ke Expert Stops 

Talking Of Forecast 

By Wiliiam Allen' . "I've made the mistake, perhaps, of 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff : making some statements that really · Earthquake expert David stewart, ·should have been kept to myself," he 

the only se~ologist to publicly su~ said. "When I ma,ke a personal stateport Iben Browning's Dec. 3 quake ment, it's interpreted, perhaps, with 

forecast, said Wednesday that he more authority than it should be." 

would no longer talk· about the prediction. Tbe mission of the center, which 

Stewart is the director of the center opened in April 1989, was to provide 

for Earthquake Studies at southeast _ information and· training that would 

Missouri State University, in Olpe Gi- sav~ lives, prevent injuries and reduce 

rardeau. He is also an adviser to the property losses from earthquakes, he 

state on earthquake policy. ·-~ said. · 

Scientists will need to study Brown· · SP¢akiD.g about Browning's forecast 

ing's approach to earth- "doesn't serve the purquake prediction for a- pose of mitigation, 

"considerable time" be- which is why I am here 

fore it can be !'either and why the center is 

fully developed or fully here," Stewart said. 

discredited," Stewart He said he neither ensaid at a news confer- - dorsed nor rejected 

ence on campus. ·'·Browning's method for 

Such research -"can· ·,·making earthquake prenot be conducted in the · dictions, but he rejected 

media by sound bites," · . the idea that the nation· 

be said. ''Therefore, un- ·- \. al panel bad put the istil such a time, there sue to rest. 

shall be no further pub- rt '. "The bottom line is, 

lie comments by myself nor by anyone Dr. Browning bas yet to be properly 

with the Center for Earthquake Stud· scrutized by_ .the scientific communiies on thiS subject." :_ · ty," Stewart said. "That's going to take 

t Coincidentally, -Stewart defended . time- maybe a year or so." 

Browning Wednesday night on nation- Stewart said be ignored Browning's 

at television. During the previously forecast wken it "first became nationrecorded NBC Program,, "Unsolved .· al news a ·year ago~" He arranged to 

M,ysteries," Stewart saW the Dec. 3 · meet with Browning several months 

.torecast could not be ignored because later to learn more after the center 

;Browning had "hit some hOme runs in . ·received mJlnY calls from people !thepast." . -. ..- · .. Browning,,&' clllru\tologist in New_ wanting "to know if Browning should 

Mexico, has forecast a 50-50 chance of be taken sejiously or ignored." : 

a quake in the New Madrid fault with- He concluded that :·what· pr. 

in 48 hours of Dec. 3. He said the Browning was d~ing '!lented a t~orquake would measure between . 6 5 ougb scientific 1nvest1gation unhl it 

and 7.5 on the Richter sCale. · : · ~as either verified or disproved. That 

_ A national panel of earthqu~ke ·ex- was, and is, my position. It did .not 

perts bas concluded that the preclic··"- occur to me that such a position would 

tion has no scientific validity. Stewart be controversial." 

sal~ JJ.e had not been pressured by Paula Davenport, a special cot:re· 

university or state officials to :stop spondent tor the Post-Dispatch, contalking about Browning. tributed information tor this story. 

Also, Browning made no specific mention of 

the San AndreaS fault, where the quake 

erupted. • Claim: Browning predicted the Feb. 9; 

1971, earthquake in San Fernando, calif. 

Analysis: "We could fin~ no evidence to 

document whether L Browning had 

predicted it, or had merely retrospectively noted its 

occurrence," the report said. Browning's only refer- ence to predicting that quake the night before it 

happened came ·in a book published in 1975; sal~ 

panel member Duncan Agnew, a professor'of geo~ 

physics at the .University of California at SaO" Diego. • Oaim: Browning predicted the May· 18, 1980, 

eruption of Mount St. Helens by telling an audience· 

tn Portland six days in advance that an eruption was likely "in about a week." · Analysis: The volcano had been erupting since 

March 27 and was bulging about 6 feet per d~y when 

Browning-made the-statement. Geologists' warnings 

of an eruption were widespread in the news media 

at the time. • Claim: Browning predicted the· Dec. 23, 1972, 

earthquake in Managua, Nicaragua. 

Analysis: The panel -found no evidence that 

Browning predicted the quake. · • Claim: Browning predicted the Sept. 19, 1985, 

~rthquake th~t hit Mexico Oty. · Analygis: The panel found no documentation o( 

any prediction. . • Claim: Browning predicted the Nov. 13, 1985, 

eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia. 

Analysis: Eruption had already begun in September of that year .. Publicity -and -PUblic ·warnings 

about a ·major eruption were widespread. - - th-e panelists' rePort said: -''The second; deadly 

phase of this erup~on did occur on an I. Browning 

'danger day,' but nowhere in the considerable vol- ume of postmortem inquiry about this eruption is 

there any indication that I. Browning or anyone else 

had forecast an eruption of [the volcano] on this 

particular date." 

None of .these predictions- fits standards established by the Seismological Society of America, the 

leading professional body of seismologists, for a credible prediction, the panel said. 

The issue of Browning's track record is important 

because it has played a major role in the credibility 

of his Dec. 3 forecast with the general public, the 

scientists said. 

"His claimed success rate should not, in our opinion, be used to underscore the need for public 

response to his December 2-3, 1990, New Madrid 

prediction," their report said. - William Allen 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 125 

11-11-90 

Arkansas Gazette 

Reprinted by permission of the 

Arkansas Democrat-Gazette 

Accidental release of quake forecast weary aircraft to make sure it was 

h tl · • ·· b[" properly repaited: -

Ur es SCLentLSt Lnto pu LC eye After the war, he worked as a 

I ben 

By Phoebe Wall Howard 

Gaz~ Staff 

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. 

Iben Browning is an intellectual 

chameleon. 

As a scientist, he has researched 

and developed classified military 

weapons. high-tech optics, cancer 

treatments, among other scientific advancements. 

Despite his extensive career. he 

has earned little public notice. 

Until now. 

Browning, 72, has become the 

subject of intense public curiosity. 

controversy and criticism since he 

forecast an earthquake for the 

New Madrid Fault area. During a : speech. last . fall, 

Browning announced that the 

New Madrid Fault, which reaches 

into Northeast Arkansas, stood a 

50 percent chance of being hit by 

an earthquake between Dec. 1 and 

5. 

Established earthquake scientists say Browning is generating 

fear in a drive for self-promotion. 

A group of nationally recognized earthquake experts compared Browning's scientific methods to throwing darts at a 

calendar. Other scientists have 

said he is simply outside his areas 

of expertise. 

"In sc1ence, you're assumed 

wrong until proven right. It's the 

opposite of the legal system ... That's how science protects itself from pseudo science," 

said Arch Johnston, director of 

the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at Memphis State University. 

Dr. David Stewart, director of 

the Center for Earthquake Studies at Southeast Missouri State 

University at Cape Girardeau, 

Mo., is the only earthquake specialist in the country who has met 

with Browning in New Mexico to 

discuss his research. 

"I'm not endorsing what he 

said. at this point," Stewart said: 

"I thi~k he's a credible scientist 

who deserves a fair and objective 

hearing on the part of the scientific community." 

I 

weapons systems analyst at Sandia National Laboratory in AlbuB . I querque, which develops highrownlng.~~:c~ .. o7i!.i~~?m ~~~o;:~rc~!d ~~~ i peacehme uses for atomic weapons .. He also· worked at the Bell 

· [Aircraft Corp. in Buffalo, N.Y., 

, where he helped develop a delivBrowning is a climatologist who 

started studying earthquakes and 

volcanoes as a hobby. 

Recently he determined that at 

the beginning of. December, the 

sun and the moon will align and 

come closer to the Earth than 

they have in nearly 70 years. The 

· gravitational pull created by these 

forces,· Browning theorizes, will 

creati! a strain so severe that the 

Earth's crust may rupture along 

already weakened faults. 

Browning doesn't use the word 

"prediction." He instead says 

that conditions will be favorable 

for earthquakes along a band 

around the Northern Hemisphere. 

Browning's research suggests 

that the New Madrid fault could 

experience a quake ranging from 

7 to 7.25 on the Richter scale. 

The press picked up on the New 

Madrid forecast after Browning 

mentioned it in a speech at the 

Missouri Governor's Conference 

on Agriculture in Lake Ozark, 

Mo. . 

"I did not release the information to the public," he insisted. "It 

was leaked from a business talk. 

Panic can kill more people than 

an earthquake." 

·:Besides studying climatology in 

~is spare time, Browning is an 

mventor. He recently acquired his 

68th patent. 

Born and raised in Texas 

Browning helped his father in th~ cotton fields. His mother was a 

Mountain Home, Ark., native. 

Browning earned bachelor's de-

·grees in physics and mathematics 

at Southwest Texas Teachers 

College. He went on to study 

zoology and physiology at the 

University of Texas at Austin 

where he earned his master's and 

doctorate degrees. He also has an 

~xt~nsive academic background 

m biOlogy, genetics and bacteriology. 

He taught at the University of 

Texas and the University of 

Pennsylvania. · 

Durfng World War II, he was an 

Air Force test pilot. flying battle-

-ery system for the hydrogen bomb. ·· 

. For the.past two years~ Brown-. 

mg has worked as chief scientist 

at Summa Medical Corp. in Albuquerque, where he heads research 

o.n projects such as high-definitiOn television and voice-activated electronics. 

"I would call him a sponge - he 

absorbs everything. He's a man of 

tre~endous knowledge," said 

Nell Tucker, vice president of 

Summa. "Dr. Browning is very 

unconventional ... Most of the 

things he thinks about most of 

his science, is way o~t of the 

mainstream of what his peers are doing .. " 

For the past 20 years, Browning 

also has served as a. consultant to 

busi~essmen and farmers, -forecastmg weather trends and their 

possible effects on crops and busi- nesses. -----~ · -----

He and his daughter are in their 

14th year of publishing The 

Brou:ning Newsletter. For $225 a 

year, farmers, commodities investors and businessmen have 

monthly access to Browning's research on climate trends. 

Roger Spencer of Chicago has 

·commissioned Browning several 

times to lecture to his company's 

employees about climatqlogy. 

Spencer is first vice-president of 

Paine Webber Inc., a leading brokerage and financial services firm. 

Spencer said he takes Browning's earthquake forecast seriously. 

"A lot of experts say it's mumbo 

jumbo and witchcraft," he said. 

"People that haven't heard of 

him, it's easy to pooh-pooh. 

Those that know him will have 

their houses insured for earthquakes and are gonna be damn 

careful 0n the third or fourth {of 

December]. I know I am." 

Browning's climatology consulting fee is $2,500 a day. 

However, he has only made a 

handful of speeches over the last 

year because of his poor health. 

Browning has survived chronic 

skin cancer and two heart attacks. 

Last year, he was diagnosed with 

diabetes. 
126 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

11-11-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

AP 

Margaret Goz, a l:llUSeum employee in New Madrid, Mo., displaying some of the earthquakerelated shirts on sale at ~he shop. 

NBC Won't Delay Quake Miniseries 

By William Allen . NoV'ember ratings sweeps. These · Of the Post-Dispatch Staff . . decisions were made long before · The NBC television Iietwo'rk has the Browning pre<;liction became 

rejected a request by a group of known." 

Midwestern eartJtquake prepared- "We feel that from the outset this ness officials to delay airing a is a work of fiction and never has 

quake-disaster movie. · anybod'y pretended that this is 

Officials with the Central-United based on real events," Gelt said. Stat~ Earthql.\ake Consortium said The series, called "The Big One: 

they feared that the TV miniseries The Great Los Angeles Earthwould fuel "'anxiety in the Midwest quake,'! is scheduled to air tonight 

about a much-criticized forecast by and Monday. 

Iben Browning that a major quake The network's promotional matemight hit the -New Madrid fault _ rial for the series cited Browning's 

around Dec: 3 .. '· . . . . .. .. . . .. prediction and asked whether a 4.6 

-·~so .far •We don't see· that they've earthquake in the fault on Sept. 26 

really done anything to respond to wa5 "a sign of more to come." 

the request,"· said Jerome Hauer, The _earthquake consor:Uum's 

chatrinan of the consortium;· "We'll Hauer said: "Connecting the BrownjuSt .ha~~ to 4ealwith the outcome ·of :ing prediction ·to tlle miniseries is 

the: ~lniSeries~:betvieen now a'nd Jrrespon8ible;: because it is not a 

Dec. 3."' ;credibl~ pr~diction." . - . NBC spokeswoman Iris-Gelt said · He .. said a segment about the 

the·miniserteS:could not.~e-moved Browiling· prediction th~t aired 

becauSe "very long-term decisio~" Thursday_ night on the NBC program 

had been made to air it during the "Unsolved Mysteries" was geared to 

"hype the miniseries." 

Browning, a scientist from New 

Mexico who does not specialize in 

earthquakes, has forecast a 50-50 

chance of a_ quake measuring between 6.5 and 7.5 on the Richter 

scale befween Dec. 1 and 5. A na- tional panel of experts has concluded that the forecast is ridiculous. 

The consortium sent a letter Nov. 

2 to NBC officials asking them to 

delay the miniseries until January, 

Hauer said. 

Edward Piette, general manager 

of KSDK (ChannelS), the NBC affiliate in St. Louis, said he was un- aware of the consortium's request 

and that the station planned to· 

broadcast the miniseries. 

But for four nights beginning Sunday, the station's news programs 

·will feature a series that will show 

that the Browning prediction "is 

about as likely to happen as the moon falling out of the sky," Piette 

said. 
APPENDIX C-11-IE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 

ERIC MINK 

'Big One': Exploiting Shook-up St. Louis 

WHEN THE MOVIE "Earthquake" premiered 

in 1974, people paid their money mostly to see 

if the "Sense-Surround" gimmick really made it feel 

as though the theater were shaking. (It didn't.) 

The film's dramatic quality was laughable, but 

nobody expected any better from what was just the 

latest example of Hollywood's then-hot trend: disaster flicks. 

Part I of NBC's "The Big One: The Great Los 

Angeles Earthquake" is easily dismissed as a faithful descendant or those pictures: harmless, if inane, 

disaster opera. 

• Plots and subplots could have been written by a 

computer program called "TV Movie: Generic." 

• A couple or mini-quakes are tossed in to maintain interest and, in true huckster style, tease viewers for the so-called big one in Part II. 

• Capable actors lumber like automatons through 

ridiculous parts, dragged down by a ludicrous script. 

• Characters are so blatantly stereotyped that 

predicting what they're about to say is about as 

challenging as brushing your teeth. 

• Th"e dialogue is wretched, often hilariously so. 

If Part II of the four-hour film matched the tone · 

and style of Part I, the whole thing would be a silly 

breeze, a made-for-TV diversion good for a few 

hours of mindless, microwave-popcorn entertainment with some laughs and some nifty special effects as a bonus. That isn't the case. 

Instead, Part II is gratuitously violent, needlessly 

cruel, emotionally dishonest and one of the most 

cynically exploitive TV productions I can recall. 

Having watched the entire production - and 

given the brink of earthquake hysteria on which our 

community seems to be teetering- I would suggest 

that airing this film locally not only fails to serve the 

public interest, it actually may damage the public 

interest. ChannelS, the local NBC affiliate, would be 

well within its rights to not air it at all, and it would 

deserve hearty congratulations if it chose that path. 

If, however, the film airs as scheduled, I reel 

obliged to let you know what you're in for. 

First, a warning to responsible parents: Keep 

your kids away from this film, Part II in particular. 

It seems almost deliberately designed to traumatize 

children, even those as old as 12 or 13, heightening 

what may already be marked fears stirred up by all 

the talk about a possible earthquake here. 

In the past, there have been challenging "serious" 

or "issue" movies from which kids and their parents 

could benefit if they watched them together and 

discussed them afterward. Topics have included 

everything from the effects or nuclear war to child 

.abuse to AIDS. Such projects undoubtedly will come 

)!long again in the future, but this is not one or them. 

~ Try as I might, I have been unable to find any 

saving grace for this project. Dramatically, it's a 

Joke in Part I and an abomination in Part II. 

: Public-spirited education? Its less-than-halftearted effort at giving earthquake-preparation tips 

:Occupies three minutes or the film at most, and 

lllose are negated by having important characters 

"'iolate virtually all recommended actions for beiiavior after an earthquake occurs. 

Can fear possibly encourage people to become 

informed and take precautions? In some cases, 

maybe. But, if anything, the scale of destruction and 

human tragedy depicted in this film is so broad that 

those viewers unfortunate enough to see it may well 

be left with a feeling or hopelessness that overwhelms any inclination to take rational advance 

preparations for an earthquake. 

Does the film show the danger of gove:-nment 

officials ignoring the advice of scientists? Yes, but 

the lesson is rendered impotent by the dramatized 

panic that ensues when officials finally listen to the 

scientists and issue a public warning. 

And, finally, unlike the hyper-exaggerated, laughable violence that characterizes slasher films, the 

violence in this project seems to have no purpose 

other than provoking distress for its own sake. 

In other words, no matter how you examine this 

film, it has no redeeming quality. It also has no 

shortage of unconscionable elements. Children, for 

example, are repeatedly shown agonizing over being separated from their parents. 

In one scene, a terrified girl makes her way home 

after the quake, finds the family's telephone answering machine on the floor and then listens to a 

recording or her rather screaming in rear and pain. 

In another, a character who has had a fairly large 

part is shown being electrocuted when a building's 

electrical supply line falls into a pool of water in 

which he is standing. 

Eventually, you start wondering if there's any 

point to subjecting these characters to an apparently 

endless amount of random tragedy: 

• The mother and sister of protagonist Claire 

Winslow (Joanna Kerns) reconcile their differences 

while trapped in an elevator during the quake. But 

the mother (Bonnie Bartlett) plunges to her death 

when an aftershock breaks the elevator cables just 

after the sister, Laurie (Lindsay Frost), is rescued. 

• Laurie's boyfriend, Matt (Alan Autry), a police 

patrolman, Is gunned down by an assassin hired to 

kill a visiting black South African official. The assassin also kills Matt's pal, Det. Bob Bryant (Clarence 

Gilyard Jr.). 

• Claire and a neighbor manage to save her 

daughter, Heather (Holly Fields), from drowning in 

rising water while trapped in the basement under 

debris. 

• The Winslow family's housekeeper, Sonia (Silvana Gallardo), watches her son die on a hospital 

operating table following injuries suffered in the 

collapse of a school auditorium. 

• The quake throws real estate developer Warren 

Cates (Robert Ginty) out the window of his office to 

his death. 

• City official Chad Spaulding (Joe Spano) Is 

accidentally electrocuted. 

• The film ends wilh Claire and Heather being 

reunited with husband/father Steve (Dan Lauria), 

who was badly injured at LA's airport but somehow 

got home. 

In recent weeks, virtually every television station 

in St. Louis, commercial and non-commercial, has 

aired special programs or series somehow connect127 

11-11-90 

St. Louis 

Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 
128 

11-11-90 

St. Louis 

Post-Dispatch 

(Continued) 

RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

ed to earthquakes. (This newspaper printed · anc 

distributed a special section on the subject a couplE 

·of weeks ago.) The stations' efforts varied In quality 

. but at least they addressed a topic of legitimatE 

; public interest. whether or not the area is hit with ar 

earthquake in early December. 

Most immediately, Channel5 has plans for a four 

part series on earthquake prediction, which i! 

scheduled to air on iis late newscasts starting Sun 

day night. The station's chief meteorologist, Bot 

Richards, apparently will emphasize, as he did in < 

report last Wednesday, the lack of scientific valid it~ 

in the method used to "predict" an earthquake here 

IroniCally, the impact of his stories could well bt 

undermined by hysteria whipped up by the mlntser 

ies airing on his own station. 

NBC's two-part film (airing Sunday and Monda: 

nights) serves no interest at all - either as enter 

tainment or information - except the network' 

Interest in suckering viewers to watch sponsor.; 

commercials. It seems to me that in this case, at thi 

time and In this place, NBC's objective runs counte 

to the interests of the citizens ot the SL Louis vlewin1 

area. 
APPENDIX C-TilE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 129 

Mid-South's readiness 

for earthquake studied 

11-13-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission of the Associated Press 

The Associated Press 

NEWARK, Del.- The Univer· 

sity of Delaware's Disaster Re· se~rcb Center is surveying Mem· 

ph1s res1dents to gauge their 

preparat1ons for an earthquake 

forecast for early December. 

has said conditions will be right on or about Dec. 2 or Dec. 3 for an earthquake at a latitude that 

includes Memphis. . 

respondents ·think of Browning's prediction and whether re· spondents are strengthening 

their homes or purchasing 

earthquake insurance. 

tions are doing to prepare for an earthquake. 

"For example, are they doing 

disaster drills, are they engaged 

in disaster planning, engaged in 

any special planning for earth· 

quakes?" Ms. Tierney said. 

"The primary focus of the sur- vey is on . . . bow residents of 

Memphis perceive earthquakes 

in general and what are they domg to prepare for one," Kath· 

leen. J. Tierney, research direc- tor', said Monday. ·· ·· 

The Farmers Almanac also 

predicts Dec. 3 begins the 

month's "most likely five-day pe· 

riod of earthquakes in the north· ern hemisphere." 

Ms. Tierney said some respon· 

dents might be influenced by 

the television miniseries that 

began Sunday on a major earth· 

quake in tos Angeles. 

In a separate but related study, a team of three researchers from 

the center plans to be in Mem· 

phis from Nov. 30 to Dec. 6. 

"Do they think it's a serious 

risk for Memphis? Do they think one is going to strike in the next 

few years? How concerned are they personally and what are they doing about it?" 

Even though geologists say 

Browning's prediction is only a guess, earthquake survival kits are selling well. 

The Delaware research center 

has mailed 1,150 surveys to Memphis residents and researchers 

hope 80 percent are returned. 

The survey asks whether the 

respondent felt a quake in the area . in September that mea· sured 4.6 on the Richter scale 

and what they thought about it. 

"We're hoping the movie en· courages people to return the 

questionnaire, but it also repre· 

sents a type of interference in our research design. P~opl~ 

might be_innuence<fby it. But 

since we'll know -who returned 

the questionnaire before and 

after the movie, we might be 

able to do some comparative 

analysis," she said. 

They will "observe what preparations local government is 

making and what emergency agencies are doing to prepare," 

Ms. Tierney said. She said the team plans to tape 

local television news programs 

dealing with quake preparation. The research is funded by a $250,000 grant from the National 

Science Foundation. 

Climatologist Iben Browning There are questions on what 

Surveys are also to be mailed soon to public officials in Mem· 

phis to see what local jurisdic· 

The center has conducted sev· eral disaster studies. 

'The Big Baloney·' 

TV Miniseries Conveyed Misinforma~i~n, . 

False Alatm About Quakes, ·Experts Say 

By William Ailerr 

Of the Post·Dispatcti Staff 

Earthquake experts are panning "The 

Big One," a television movie about an earth· 

quake in Los Angeles. 

They say the two·part miniseries, which. 

concluded Monday .night on NBC, conveys a 

number of false impressions; including that: 

• The prediction of quakes is possible. 

• Scientists are hiding something. 

• A widely' discredited forecast for a quakeDec.-3 could.have merit ·· 

ScientiSts· and q-;iake·preparedness. offi· 

cials agree that the movie depicts an ex· 

tremely unlikely quake with the worst pos· 

sible damage. A quake lasting more than 

five minutes - as the movie's "big one" 

does - is two to three times longer than 

possible, the experts say. 

R.D. Ross, dire'ctor of the State Emergen· 

cy Management Agency in Missouri, said he 

and other emergency-preparedness offi· 

cials in the Midy;est were concerned· that 

the film's "doomsday scenario could be· 

come a powerful disincentive to any pre· 

paredness measure on the· part of business· 

es and other groups anywhere in the· 

<:ountry threatened by earthquakes." · 

Tile experts also are upset with information displayed at the end of tile film, saying 

it could leave view~rs with the impression 

tt;;;>t an earthquake of the same magnitu<j.e 

could strike beneath St. Louis. Local seis· 

mologists emphatically deny ·that that is 

possible. At its closest point, the New Ma· 

. drid Fault is more than 100 miles from St. 

Louis. · · 

"The whole thing is silly," Ross said. 

·The scientists in the movie rely on misin· 

formation to piece together their prediction; said James Wiliiams, Missouri's state 

geologist. 

Their ciues, such as the monitoring of 

radon gas and the level of oil wells, were 

once believed to be related to quakes. But _mat idea .was-rejeCted by scientists' more 

than a decade ago, Williams said. 

One of the film'S-most misleading sugges· 

tions is that scientists can predict quakes, 

said Douglas Wiens, a seismologist at Wash· 

ington Unirersity. 

"lt's teally not possible at the current 

level of the science,"Wiens said. "We aren't 

.able to pin down the year that an earth· 

quake would happen, much less the size and 

exactly where it is going to hit.'' 

Quake experts also .see a major problem 

with the film's central conflict: that of a 

seismologist who befieves a quake is coming and an earthqua'ke official who wants to 

hold back on warning the public. 

Among the critics is seismologist Lucy 

Jones, on whom the film's main character is 

based .. She works for the U.S. Geological 

Surv~y)n Pasadena, Calif. 

Jones called the movie plot "complefely 

unrealistic. Some really responsible people 

were portrayed very badly;" 

11-13-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Ross Browning 

·!ben Browning of New Mexico, a clima· 

tologist who does not .specialize in earth· 

quakes, has forecast a 50·50 chance of a 

New" Madrid quake measuring between 6.5 

and 7.5 .on the Richter scale between Dec. 1 

and 5 .. A national panel of quake experts has 

concluded that the forecast is ridiculous. 

. Even so, the netwprk'.s promotional mate· 

.rial for the series cited Browning's predic· 

tion and asked if a 4.6 earthquake on the 

fault Sept. 26 was "a sign of more to come." 

Officials with the Central United States 

Earthquake Consortium asked NBC to de· 

lay airing the miniseries until next year, btit 

the network said it could not because the 

show had long been scheduled. 

Jerome Hauer, chairman of the consor· 

tium, said the mood in Missouri, Illinois and 

the other states around the New Madrid 

fault "is somewhere between a hysteria and 

a panic. There's no question that people are 

taking this prediction very seriously." 

Quake prediction is "a really complex 

matter," he said. "That show made it sound 

like it was something simple and that did 

the public a considerable disservice." 

The idea that prediction is possible "plays 

into the hands of quacks who say they can 

do it, and it leads the public to beli;Jve that 

.scientists really do have this information 

but are keeping it from them." 
130 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

11-16-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Quake Forecaster_ Now Predicting Depression 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

The man who has forecru;t an imminent major 

earthquake in the New Madrid fault predicted 

Thursday that the United States was nearing an 

economic depression worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. 

"For climatological reasons, we Will reach the 

bottom of a depression about the end of 1992," 

said New Mexico climatologist Iben Browning. 

"And 1993 will be the worst [depression] since 

1776 and more severe than the 1930s." 

Browning has forecast a 50-50 chance of a 

quake measuring 6.5 to 7.5 on the Richter scale 

between Dec. I and 5 in the New Madrid fault A 

national panel of quake experts has concluded 

that the forecast has no merit 

• About 600 people, mostly local businessmen 

and businesswomen, heard Browning speak at a 

$25-a-plate lunch at the Breckenridge Frontenac 

Hotel. The talk was sponsored by the Building 

.Owners and· Managers Association of Metropoli· 

tan St. · Louis, a- group that serves te.al ·estate. p.::operty management and related industries. 

Browning is a consultant to several businesses, 

including Paine Webber Inc. He consults on how 

such natural events as volcanoes and weather 

patterns affect agricultural and other 

investments. · 

After his speech, Browning was asked how he 

would react to his Dec. 3 quake forecast if he 

lived in the St Louis area. 

"If a person has any doubt about ·whether I'm 

wrong or not, he should at least take care of his 

children," Browning said. 

. The one-hour talk delved into the Intricacies 

of Browning's idea that tidal forces set off a 

series of events that result in political upheaval. 

He has written books and spoken widely on that 

theme. 

"Human events parallel these tidal forces, 

which trigger volcanoes, which change the 

weather," he said. The volcanoes send dust into 

the atmosphere, cooling the globe an'd causing 

crop failures. 

Browning showed several graphs linking tidal 

forces to volcanic activity, revolutions and wars. 

The world is cooling off, which Will deplete 

already-low grain reserves, be said. 

In 1992, the United States will face "our lowest 

yields and highest prices of grain," which Will 

raise the price of food and lower the amount of 

disposable income that Americans have, be said. 

Because disposable income is key to economic 

health, a depression Will result, Browning said. 

During his talk, Browning made no reference 

to his forecast for the New Madrid fault. But 

.questions from the audience afterward focused 

on the earthquake prediction. 

Audience members said later that they bad 

been surprised by the prediction of a depression, 

but were more interested in the quake forecast 

John Theiss, president of Theiss Engineers 

Inc. of St Louis,-said be had learned nothing new 

from the talk. Using charts and technical details 

showed that Browning was "trying to prove his 

case as scientist, but I don't think it meant anything to the audience," Theiss said, 

"From comments I heard at my table, everybody is behind the man, but nobody knows 

whether they should believe him" about Dec. 3, 

TheisS said. 

Bonnie Holmes said she had not changed her 

view that a quake Dec. 3 was no more likely than 

on any other day. Holmes is executive director 

of the Flooring Industry Council, a trade association that has headquarters here. 

But her opinion of Browning did change. 

Hol~es said she bad beard that Browning was "a 

kind of academic Jean Dixon," the psychic. But 

after his talk, sbe believed Browning was "a very 

learned man who does his homework and truly 

believes wliat be said." 

Asked by one questioner why the scientific 

community "doesn't believe you," Browning 

said: "For me to have an opinion [on that] would 

be pure overhead. I try not to bave an opinion. I 

stick to my work." 

----------------··"· '""-------------------- 11-18-90 

Chicago Tribune 

Reprinted by permission 

Major quake prediction. reaffirmed 

Climatologist stands by projection of many December disasters 

Chicago Tribune 

FRONTENAC, Mo. -, !ben 

Browning on Thursday stood by 

his controversial . projection of a "50-50 probability" of a major 

earthquake along the New Madrid 

Fault "on or about" Dec. 3. At the same time, he defied history and science in explaining the 

impact of climatic forces on world 

events, using the same evidence he uses to project earthquakes. 

In the view of the climatologist 

and $2,500-j.-day business consul- tant from ~w Mexico, tidal forces 

and volc~nlc eruptions have been 

responsible for, among other 

things: 

The French and Indian War, the 

American Revolution, the Civil 

War, social unrest in the United 

States "beginning in 1961," acid 

rain and the collapse of the Soviet 

agricultural system. 

"lliE..Y __ !_I_!I_N!{_ ~ommunism 

failed," Browning said. "No, the 

weather failed." 

By the end of 1992, he adds, the 

United States will be in its worst depression, because of "climatory 

reasons." And contrary to the con- clusion of most climatologists, Browning said the world was getting colder, not warmer. 

Speaking to nearly 700 people at a builders association meeting in 

suburban St. Louis,. Browning reaffirmed his projection that, based on 60-year peaks in tidal forces, the 

New Madrid Fault is due for a major quake in early December. He 

also broadened his projection, saying that earthquakes also could 

occur then in northern California or Tokyo. Browning's statements have set off unprecedented alarm in an area where, for more than 180 years, 

residents have known they were vulnerable to earthquakes. 

The projection~!Jave been discredited by a panel of seismologists 

and geologists, including scientists 

from the U.S. Geological Survey. The panel ch..ratterized Browning's projections as "ridiculous" or "as accurate as throwing darts at a calendar." 

"THERE IS no scientific basis 

for correlating high earth tidal 

times with earthquakes or vol- canos," said Arch Johnston, direc- tor of the Center for Earth Research and Information ·at Memphis State University, and a member of the panel. "Seismologists have examined this question 

for 50 years and it just doesn't hold 

up." 

Brian Mitchell of the St. T .ouis 

University Earth Sciences 0cpart- ment ~ared Johnston's view. "One benefit of it is it does increase 

earthquake awareness, but that 

has to be played off against the 

fact that near panic has been 

caused in some places," he said. "It also diverts people from the 

fact that there is really a long-term 

problem and they should take nor- mal precautions all the time 

instead of extraordinary precautions for one day," he said. 

PART OF the criticism of 

Browning stems from the fact that 

he is not a seismologist or geologist. He holds a doctorate in physiology, genetics and bacteriology. He 

is a biophysicist, climatologist and , consultant to businesses about the 

economic impact of climate and 

geological events. In his presentation, for which he was paid $2,000 to $3,000, Browning used an array of charts and 

graphs that he said reflected vari- ous temperature, volcano and 

earthquake activity over the last 

2,000 years. Browning said he had to modify 

the research techniques -he used 

when he was a scientist, notingl

1 

that the demands of business often 

required projections based on less 

than ~_gy>I"e_llensive information. l 
APPENDIX C-TIIE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 

Ability to Forecast Quakes 

Shaky at Best, Experts Say 

• Seism61dgy: Most scientists dismiss a widely reported 

prediction of a major Midwest temblor in December. 

By LEE DYE TIMES SCIENCE WRITER 

"Only fools, charlatans and liars 

predict earthquakes." 

That unkind assessment of those 

who claim to know when the Earth 

is most likely to shudder has been 

attributed to' the legendary pioneer 

in seismology, Charles Richter. 

The quote has become part of the 

folklore of the dark art of predicting earthquakes, and many would 

say · it is as true today as when it 

was allegedly muttered by the 

Caltech scientist who gave the 

world its earthquake magnitude 

scale. For despite decades of research 

and .enormous progress in understanding the mechanics of earthquakes, experts agree that no one: 

has come up with a formula that ls 

likely to lead to a reliable predico 

tion of exactly when and where an 

earthquake is about to strike. Even 

Caltech's CJ'arence Allen, the dean 

of Southern California seismologists and an eternal optimist in tlie 

field of earthquake predictions, admitted recently that science is still a long way from being able to do 

that. 

"I don't think I'm going to live 

long enough to see any kind of 

routine shott-term predictions," 

said Allen, 66. Then, yielding to the 

optimism that has marked his long 

career, he added: ... But I hope in my 

lifetime I will see some intriQuing 

signals." 

•:'l'hat, right now, is about the ~Ost that any reputable scientist is ~ing for, despite highly publi-

<)rzed claims by some who say they 

li)ve successfully predicted earthquakes. And that includes a climatOlogist who has predicted a cata- strophic earthquake in early 

December for the New Madrid 

~It that runs through southeast- ern, Missouri, using a theory that 

!)!IS· been examined and discarded 

J?r.numerous experts. 

M

• · . ost seismology experts are 

instead focusing on two ex-

~i~tecl earthquakes, one in Japan 

stiU(h of Tokyo and one in Central 

C.afifornia east of Paso Robles, and 

~}ther of those quakes would proville clues that will enhance the 

!!nee. of predicting earthquakes · where. Both projects are based 

.the belief that some earth-

*akes strike on fairly regular 

int:ervals. 

:Bi)t scientists in Japan are not 

cerlain they will detect evidence 

tl*\C their quake is imminent in the ~uts before it hits, despite a high 

d'egree of instrumentation 

tb(.oughout the region. And the C~ntral California quake is already 

pa8t·due. ~o for now, scientists believe 

tliat the best they can do is issue 

"~ecasts" of the probability of a 

s~~ific fault rupturing within a 

g~ri number of years. 

;-t}u! problem is that increased 

u~aerstanding of seismology has 

Iea· to a greater awareness of the 

dpnplexity of earthquakes and a 

k~n sense that no two earthquakes are exactly alike. Thus 

What "triggers" one earthquake 

may not trigger another, and 

events leading up to one quake 

may be absent from the next. That has left scientists with a grab bag of clues but no formula 

that will tell them which events, 

such as smaller temblors, will precede a major quake. This has made 

seismologists a humble group, and 

many are more than a little out- raged by the New Mexico climatologist's claims that a catastrophic 

earthquake will strike the nation's 

heartland on Dec. 2 or 3. 

!ben Browning based his claim 

on an alignment of the Earth, sun 

and moon, and his forecast sent 

shock waves throughout much of 

the nation-from Chicago to New 

Orleans-even though a special 

panel of experts set up by the u.s. 

government concluded "there is 

absolutely no scientific basis" for 

Browning's prediction. 

And although the federal gov- ernment has spent hundreds of 

millions of dollars on earthquake 

research, it bas issued only one official predi~tion of an earthquake, and th'!t temblor is now past 

due. Based largely on an average 

period of 22 years between quakes 

on a Central California segment of 

the San 'Andreas Fault, the U.S. 

GQO}ogical Survey predicted 1" 

1985 tna' '"I eannquaKe of about 6 

magnitude would strike near the 

community of Parkfield around 

1988. 

The government has spent $15 

million setting up instruments to record every ,event leading up to 

this quake, and at least 50 experts 

have devoted · chunks of their careers to preparing for the temblor. 

But Parkfield continues to doze. 

The prediction said the quake 

could come within five years on 

either side of that date, so it is not yet invalid, but many scientists are 

beginning to wonder whether na- ture has played a cruel trick on 

them. 

And new evidence is not en- couraging, according to Evelyn Roeloffs of the U.S. Geological 

Survey, who is chief scientist on 

the Parkfield experiment. Recent 

work suggests that past earthquakes in that area differed considerably from each other, and those 

quakes may not have hit with the 

regularity experts had thought. 

So Parkfield, once thought to be 

the safest of adventures into earthquake predicting, is demonstrating 

just how difficult the field can be. 

The real world of earthquake 

forecasting, it turns out, bears little 

similarity to a recent television 

movie in which some experts became convinced that the Big One was about to strike Los Angeles 

because conditions here were so 

similar to events leading up to a 

catastrophic quake near Mexico 

City in 1985. 

I

n reality, the Big One could 

come with no warning whatso- ever. All the money in the world 

and the best experiments that scientists can create may fail to warn the people of Southern California 

that disaster is just hours away. On the other hand, there might 

be ample clues so that even the 

dullest of seismologists will figure 

out something is about to happen. 

History teaches that lesson q}li\e 

clearly. In 1975, clues werej ~o 

persuasive that China evacuated 

the city of Haicheng in the hours 

before a 7.3 quake, which leveled 

the city. Residents throughout the 

region had been alarmed by frequent foreshocks that rumbled 

through the region even as residents were being evacuated, as 

well as by peculiar animal behavior 

for weeks before the quake. 

As a result of the evacuation, 

there were few deaths. But only a 

yef!r later a 7.6 quake destroyed 

the city of Tangshan, China. About 

a quarter of a million people died. 

There had been no warning signs. 

There had been no prediction. 

Earthquakes are like that. 

The humbling nature of seismology left· many experts chuckling t() 

themselves when they first heard 

that an obscure climatologist had 

predicted a major quake on the 

New Madrid fault system, which 

ruptured in the early 1800s with a series of quakes that rank among 

the most powerful ever to strike 

North America. But some Mid- western officials took it seriously, 

vowing to close schools and other 

facilities for the days of "geological 

danger" cited by Browning. 

131 

11-18-90 

Los Angeles Times 

Reprinted by permission 

Browning publishes the Brown-· 

ing Newsletter, which is sold to 

industrial customers and has 

warned of everything from the 

probability that the U.S. government will be overthrown next year 

to the imminent beginning of an ice 

age just as most scientists are 

worrying about global warming. 

Browning's prediction of a New 

M<!drid quake snowballed in credibility when some of his subscribers 

claimed that he had successfully 

predicted such things as the Lorna 

Prieta earthquake that devastated 

the · San· 'Francisco Bay Area last 

year and the eruption of Mt. St. 

Helens. 

Faced with growing public 

alarm, the U.S. Geological Survey established an "ad hoc working group" to evaluate Browning's 

prediction. ''We _took it seriouslY and looked at . it carefully, even though we 

were very skeptical [of the prediction]."· said Thomas Heaton, a scientist in charge of the Geological 

Survey's Southern California office 

and a member of the working 

group. But after examining the 

evidence, the prediction "just 

didn't make any sense to us," 

Heaton said. 

On Oct 18, the group issued a 

report challenging virtually every 

aspect of Browning's prediction; 

including the claim that he had 

predicted the Lorna Prieta quake. 

Browning, who is recovering 

from an operation, has declined all 

interviews. A woman who an- swered the phone at his home said 

s'lrnply that the 72-year-old business consultant would sta,nd on his r~cord, despite a strong attack 

from the seismological community. ·But did Browning really predict 

tlle catastrophes he claims to have · 

fqreseen? 

• The working group reviewed a videotape and a transcript of two 

speeches Browning gave before 

tlje Lorna Prieta quake, in which 

hedaims to have made the prediction. But according to the report, 

Browning never mentioned California and said only that "there 

will probably be several earthquakes around the world, Richter 

6;pJus, and there may be a volcano 

or two." 

The repqrt concluded that his . track record in predicting volcanoes is even less impressive. He 

did predict Mt. St. Helens, the 

report says, during a speech in 

Portland, Ore., six days before the 

eruption. But by then the area around the volcano had already 

been evacuated, and geologists had 

issued· numerous warnings "that a major eruption was imminent," the 

report said. 'Browning's prediction:oo are parPlease see QUAKE 
132 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

11-18-90 

Los Angeles Times 

(Continued) 

QUAKE: Seismologists Leery of Forecast 

cGntlduU.ir<lm A) 

tiCularly frustrating to experts because they are based on a phenom · 

enon that has been extensively 

researched and discarded as . the 

"triggering" mechanism for earthquakes. He believes major quakes 

are triggered by the alignment of 

the Earth and the sun and the 

moon-in other words, when there 

is either a full moon or a new moon. 

thought that might be true, and his 

early work has been cited by 

Browning to support his prediction. 

cetnber. Even if tides do play a 

role, Heaton said, there is no reason to b~lieve quakes should occur 

at one particular peak tide. 

Unfortunately, despite the condemnation of Browning's method, 

no seismologist can saithere won't 

be an earthquake because no one 

knows exactly when one is going to 

strike. And strike it will, someday. 

"I wrote a paper I would just as 

soon forget," Heat9n said. 

Heaton later repudiated his own 

work after conducting more extensive research. When he looked at 

earthquakes on a global scale, 

Heaton . found that 79 out of 80 

quakes did not fit the pattern 

because they did not occur at times 

of. maximum. tidal stress. 

In fact, the tidal conditions in 

early December will not .be significantly different than they were as 

recently as three years ago, and no 

earthquake struck then. 

Asked what he will say if a major 

earthquake hits the Midwest in 

early December, Heaton winced. 

With his face nearly contorting in 

agony, he said, "I guess we will just 

say, 'damn.'" 

Years ago, many scientists 

thought the same · thing because 

during such a period the stress on 

the Earth is pa~ticularly high. The 

ground bulges imd contracts, just 

as the seas swell in tidal actions, so 

it seemed reasonable that such 

immense stresses could cause 

earthquakes~ · 

"If you have 79 out of 80 occurring randomly, the~e's not mucli 

predictive value in a full or new 

moon," Heaton said. 

Tidal stresse~ on Jan. 17, 1988, 

were only a little less than they 

will be on Dec.' 2 and 3, and the 

difference is so slight ·that even 

subtle changes in atmospheric 

pressures would make the stresses 

indistinguishable for the two dates. 

So the report .concludes that the 

danger on Dec. 2 and 3 will be no 

greater-and no1less-than on any 

other day. 

If it does hit, even though lben 

Browning's method could still be as 

flawed as the experts think, the 

world would· never forget a cantankerous climatologist who 

caused a lot of folk.s in the Midwest 

to schedule their vacation trips for 

Ironically, Heaton himself once early December. · 

11-18-90 

Paducah (Ky.) Sun 

Reprinted by permission 

The working ·group's report expressed puzzlement over why 

Browning zeroed in on early DeTime to stand u 

Last Thursaay, Ibe1l Br'bWnlng (of Dec. 3 

earthquake hysteria fame) spoke to a gathering 

of scientists In St. Louis. Do you know what he 

to fear of the stupid 

said? . . 

He said tidal . forces will cause the U.s. 

economy to experience a dreadflil depi'eSslon In 

1992, and "for climatological iusons, we will 

reach the bottom of the depression about the end 

of ~tm ... · I expect .It will be the most severe since 1776, more severe than the 1930s." 

Do you know what else he said? 

That high tidal forces triggered the rise of 

Nazism In Germany before "tbe second world 

wart . I'm not pulling your leg, and I trust the 

Associated Press was not pulling mine when it 

reported all of this. 

It Is this very same Iben Browning who has 

cowered our region and much of the Midwest by saying that these same tidal forces will create a better-than-even chance of a major quake on the 

New Madrid Fault on or about Dec. 3. 

Holy moly, sell my stock and call Nancy 

Reagan's astrologer for a second opinion! This Is .ridiculous folks. Tides and Nazis? A depression worse than the 1930s that will bottom out In less 

than a year? · 

Do you know what else happened on the very same day that Dr. Browning was tnaking these 

remarks In St. Louis? 

Yet another area board of education voted to 

close down its schools on Dec. 3 and 4 because .of 

.fear about the quake, or, perhaps more accur· ately, fear that lack-of-attendance due to quake worries will make school not worth having. I will 

not name the particular board; it Is not my 

intention to single it out; others will follow suit. 

Imbeciles. 

A national disaster does await our region on Dec. 3, but it will not be an earthquake. The 

nation's press haS booked every hotel room within miles - not in expectation of filming vast 

destruction on that day, but in anticipation of an opportunity to depict us as a region of semiliterate, hare-brained hicks (accurately I might add, given the way things are shaping up). According to ~e Associated Press, Iben 

Browning makes hiS living as chief scientist for a biotechnology company. His doctorate degree 

Is in physiology, not geology or planetary phy~­

lcs - fields In which one might more expect to 

find someone pronouncin& theorieS su$ as this . .. Instead, Dr. Browrung . derives his New 

Madrid disaster theory from a pursuit he calls 

"climatology," a field in which he says he Is _ self~ucated and pursues 8.3 a hobby. · . . I suppose the hobby amuses him. It' ought not amuse us. We have let ourselves be terrorized 

and made fools of by Dr. Browning's half-baked 

musings. I cannot for the life of. me understand 

W:hf so ~Y seemingly intelligent people are glVlng in to lt.. . · . 

· What kind of example does it set when boards . of education close down schools based on a projection like Browning's, . which has been 

almost universally assailed by the scientific 

community? Do any of them have the sense or the guts to let rf!!SOn p~evail over the almighty dollar here? (High absentee rates cost local ~I boards some of their state monies). Wba't 

will ~ey do next month if some TV evangelist predicts the Second Coming will be the first 

Wednesday in February? Where does it stop and 

how will they stop it? ' . 

Friends, I have looked at Dr. Browning and 

his projection from a wide array of perspectives and I have formed an opinion. It Is this· ' 

Dr. Browning is a charlatan who~ used hiS 

"hobby" and this "projection" to gain national atten~on at the ,expense of. inflicting greai 

ang_wsh and fear upon thousands of people in our reg~on. · · 

. He feigns dislike of publicity. Yet we have all seen the TV ads for a videotape of Browning'JI remarks on the earthquake subject. It goes for 

$90 a pop. Compare that to prices of a few of UJe 

blockbuster movies at your local video 'store. 

So!Deone is making out in this deal; I'm nof 

qwte sure who. But I'll bet P.T. Barnum would 

be proud. · ·· 

And how about Dr. Browning's famed ;,p~~ diction" of last year's San Francisco quake' On~ 

.of ~D-TV's senior reporters did a nice job ot ge~g at that f:ssue a few weeks ago . . HE;, 

ob~ed a transcnpt of Browning's comments lri 

which the San Francisco prediction . allegedly 

was made. From what I could make of thoSe 

comments, Browning no more predicted thii,l 

quake than the man In the moon. .· . . •. 1 

My very great regret In all of this · is tliat l ~~e let my own ~ewspaper go way too far. w 

gJVlng Dr. Browrung a forum. That I plan to. change. · I hope that the school boards other 

media, and other institutions that people 'took to 

for leadership wake .up on this issue in the 

reasonably near future as well. 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 133 

Producer Defends 

Gas Shut-off Valves 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

Producers of valves that automatically stop the-flow 

of natural gas in a major earthquake say theiq)roduct 

is a useful safety device, despite criticism by utility. and 

emergency-management officials. 

The valves reduce the risk of fire from a gas leak in 

homes, schools and businesses after a quake, says Gary 

·r.acy, vice president and director of marketing for 

Quake Master Inc. of Anaheim, Calif. The company 

makes the valves . .. Emergency officials ·and Laclede Gas CO. say the 

valves can shut off gas needlessly. 

But Lacy says that the valves seal off the gas flow 

only if the line is shaken by a major quake. Valves for 

homes cost between $400 and $450, including 

installation. 

The Cairo· (IlL) Public Utility Commission ~;~cently 

decided to offer the valve to customers, Lacy said in a visit last week to St. Louis. .,. ~ 

Laclede has no plans to install the valves on its1ines, 

but the company neither favors nor opposes customers' 

installing them on the customers' side of the gas meter, 

said Howard Elliott Jr., Laclede's vice presid(l.llt for 

administration. .,. ,; 

In a written policy statement on the shut-of(valves, 

Laclede officials warn that the valves could shiifdown 

lines needlessly if "moved or bumped or vibl'at~d by 

nearby traffic, demolition or construction." 

The statement says also that a mass shut-off-of gas 

"could be potentially life-threatening if it occWTed in 

the middle of a St. Louis winter" and that the problems 

would be "compounded" when devices that had-been 

re-set were "again triggered by inevitable·.· [earth· 

quake] aftershocks." .. Several emergency officials in Missouri and "illinois 

echoed those concerns. · But Quake Master's Lacy said that vibratiorur caused 

by traffic and other normal activity were far ·smaller 

than those that would trigger the shut-off valve.-- "Our 

valve will work only if it's needed" :._ in response to 

forces that "will cause possible damage to in-structure 

gas systems," he said. As to the prospect of living without heat fcir ·a few 

days in winter, Lacy said: "'I assume, if you're from St. 

Louis, that most people have winter clothing. 

"The bottom line is, would you rather be witliout gas 

or have a gas leak that could destroy your lfoilse?" 

Lacy said. 

People should consider what would happen to latch· 

key children and anyone who might become trapped, 

he said. 

11-18-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Some Delay Christmas 

Shopping To Buy 

Quake Supplies 

Bv William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

~. Some residents of southeastern 

Missouri are putting off their Christ· .!DilS shopping to buy food, flashlights 

and other emergency supplies in an· ticipation of an earthquake in the New 

·Madrid fault, which runs through the 

-region. 

Some have even ·made plans to 

'leave the area 

~ Anxiety about lben Browning's forei:ast of an earthquake around Dec. 3 

has cut into Christmas shopping plans 

of Mary Jo Byrd's friends. 

"Many .of· them. are...:waiting-~until 

after that" date," said Byrd, an elemen· 

tary school teacher in the Bootheel 

town of Kennett. 

Schools up and down the fault line 

have closed for one or more days 

around Dec. 1·5, the dates Browning 

says have an unusually high probabili· 

ty for a major quake there. A national 

panel of qu3ke experts says the forecast has no merit. 

Uke others in southeastern Miss· 

ouri, residents of the town of New 

Madrid have stocked up on household 

emergency items, said Mayor Dick 

Phillips. The city has stocked similar 

supplies around town and moved its 

emergency equipment to open lots. 

Phillips said nobody in town was 

panicking, although some have plans 

to leave town for a few days. 

"We'll have more TV, radio and 

newspaper people here than we'll 

have people who'll leave, for sure," he 

said. 

Phil!ips said Dec. 1·5 will "for all 

practical purposes be business as usu- al," although one tavern plans a 

"Shake, Rattle and Roll" party. 

The forecast is a constant topic of 

conversation around Kennett, Byrd 

said. Some residents of that town also 

plan to leave. 

Byrd said she, her husband and two 

children will stay, but she is going to 

keep her children "where I can see ·.them.'' 

She recently received a letter from 

her mother, who lives in Flortda, asking the family to leave during the first 

week of December. The letter con- tained traveling money. 

"I understand why she's con- cerned," Byrd said. "I have the same concern when there's a hurricane in 

her area." 

Some residents of Sikeston and en- virons "have figured it's a good time to 

go see their aunt in Arizona that they. haven't seen in a while," said Richard 

Dale, disaster service chairman of the 

American Red Cross Scott County 

Chapter. 

Some residents of southeastern 

Missouri outside the quake zorie are 

worrying unnecessarily, said Dennis 

Mobrice, spokesman for the State 

Emergency Management Agency in 

Jefferson City. 

"A lot of people in rural areas aren't 

awar~ that their county won't be. impacted," Mobrice said. "Because of 

rumor, innuendo and dissemination of 

the Iben Browning projectionL they 

overreacted." 
134 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

11-18-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Quake mania: Some Tremble In Fear, Others Plan To Party 

'The Lighter Side' 

Gets Attention, Too 

By William Allen 

and Thom Gross 

Of the Poat-Dispa!ch Staff 

Rather thlln trembling over an 

eartbquake forecast for Dec. 3, the 

residents and staff of the Westchester 

House, a nursing home In Chesterfield, are planning a party. 

While wearing plastic . hard hats, 

they will eat tossed salad, mashed po· 

tatoes and upside down cake. They 

will play songs like "I Feel the Earth 

Move" and "Shake, Ratti~ and Roll." 

. The'home Is also· taking the predlc· 

tlon seriously. It Is stocking extra food, 

water and other emergency supplies. 

But the party was scheduled to "go on 

the llghh!r side and take the focus off 

the quake scare," said Laura Burnell, 

admissions coordinator. 

The Westchester House party Is just 

one of several scheduled around the 

Sl Louts metropolitan area for Dec. 3! 

The centerpiece at another party will ' 

be a Jello mold topped with tiny toy 

houses. 

The bashes are In respcinse to ·a·. 

·forecast for a quake on the New Ma· 

drld Fault by Iben Browning, a cllma· 

tologlst from New Mexico. Otherwise, 

life at school, work and home In the 

region will go on as usual around that 

date, officials said. · 

Meanwhile, unprecedented num· 

bers of area residents are· learning 

about quake preparedness . . . and 

·easing their fears In the process. 

Browning predictS a 50·50 chance of 

a quake measuring 6.5 to 7.5 on the 

Richter scale on the New Madrid 

Fault between Dec. I and 5. A national 

panel of earthquake experts who stud· 

ied Browning's forecast concluded It had no merit 

' Although officialS· maintain that area residents are han· 

dling the forecast well, some people outside the region are 

overreacting. 

The U.S. Figure Skating Association has decided to change 

ihe dates of a regional competition that had been scheduled 

to begin Dec. 3 in Sl Louis. 

About 270 boys and girls from eight states, ages 8-17, were 

to compete Dec. 3·8 in the Upper Great Lakes RegiOnal 

Figure Skating Championships, said Cynthia Allen, local cochairman of the event 

But after pressure from parents and officials, the associabon last week decided to reschedule the championships to 

Dec. 6-9. 

"It's a real mess " Allen said. "We've had to cut out half 

the events. People ~e furious about the extra expense." 

· The decision to change the dates was "partly politics in the 

association, but people were terrified," sbe ~d. "People 

had heard that we were taking the Arch·down ptece by ptece 

and that all the bridges across the Mississippi were being 

closed." 

.. Within Ute st· Louis region, moSt offfdals 5ay they have 

detected few signs of fear. 

"I don't feel there's a sense of panic,'' said Frieda Smith, 

an official with the American Red Cross who has delivered 

quake preparedness lectures in the area. 

·• "People In the audience are saying, 'We're concerned, it's 

lime to get informed and we're glad to have this opportunity 

to find out what we should do,' '' Smith said. 

· Henry Hummer(, director of psychology at Lutheran MedIcal Center's Psychiatric Institute, said be saw no signs of an 

Increase in psychological disorders in the region as a result 

of tbe forecast 

"Some citizens are just a little more nervous,'' Hummer! 

·said. "And some of their kids are picking up on ll" 

~ Many residents are reacting like Bonnie Holmes, a Sl 

Louis businesswoman. 

· "I don't know that I believe an eartbquake is any more 

likely on Dec. 3 than at any other time, but I also believe in 

'better safe !ban sorry,' " Holmes said. "I'm not going to 

leave town, but I have made preparations at borne." 

Sam Leone/Post-Dispatch 

Jared Hennings dressed as Captain Disaster talking to third-grade pupils at Glenridge School in Clayton about the effects of an earthquake. 

Businesses plan to operate as usual in tbe first week in 

December, according to a poll conducted by AAIM Management Association, 8514 Eager Road. 

:: ·or 250 businesses polled, none reported plans to close. 

Some will take down beavy, stacked material that might tip. 

:·· Several travel agencies said th~y had experienced no 

Increase In bookings for fiigbts leaving St Louts during the 

period. 

Officials from several area schools said they had detected 

go great fears about tbe quake !:>recast among parents and 

students. 

Ron Riege~ superintendent of Belleville Public School 

District No. 118, said only one or two parents had called to 

ask about keeping their children borne Dec. 3. 

John Siemers, director of public affairs for the Parkway 

School District, said administrators bad received more calls 

after tbe first reports or tbe earthquake forecast than 

recently. 

Church officials on both sides of the Mississippi said !bey 

sense little alarm among their congregations. 

"We're praying !bat no disaster happens, wbetber it's an 

earthquake here or .War in tbe Middle East," said tbe Rev. 

Elder Dwight McDanl~ls, pastor of San Francisco Temple, 

10191 Halls Ferry Road. "We're concerned and prepared 

about it, but we're not falling apart over it What the Lord 

wants to do, he'll do." 

Despite tbe low level of anxiety, interest in eartbquakes 

and how to prepare for them has been extraordinarily high, 

officials said. That's good, (bey said, because becoming 

informed helps lessen fears. 

John Ingrham, of the Madison County Emergency Services and Disaster Agency, said his agency had been "be· 

sieged with requests" for quake preparedness presentations. 

But he added, "I think people are becoming a little 

more relaxed at this point~ because scientists have discredited Browning's forecast. 

The Red Cross chapter has nearly run out of 230,000 

comprehensive quake preparedness guides it published in 

late October, said Sabrina Kalleberg, a chapter 

spokeswoman. 

Judy Mosinger Ogilvie, an employee at tbe St. Louis 

Science Center who frequently talks with visitors, said a 

"tremendous amount of interest" In earthquakes had not let 

up. Last week, a smail quake was recorded on tbe center's 

seismograph as a group looked on. 

"In a case like that, we end up talking to people much 

more about tbe science of eartbquakes" !ban about the 

Browning forecast, Ogilvie said. "They just want to know 

more." 

Visitors to tbe Science Center "tend to be skeptical" about 

tbe possibility of a quake on Dec. 3, but !bey have not 

completely rejected the forecast. 

"There's also a strong· feeling that we bave been unaware 

of tbe earthquake threat in this area and that !ben Browning 

has done us a great service in getting us to prepare," she 

said. "Even those who discount bim say that." 

Robert Kelly and Robert Sanford of the Post-Dispatch 

staffcontributed infonnation for this story. 
APPENDIX C- THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 135 

Nothing to fear but fear 

itself, and Iben Browning 

By Bill Haltom 

T HANKS to Iben Browning a lot of 

Mid-Southerners aren't n'early so thankf~l this Thanksgiving weekend. Brownmg has scared the stuffings and 

dressing and sweet potatoes out of thousands of folks by stating that conditions are ripe ~or a ma_jor earthquake in this area dunng the first week of December. 

Browning is a climatologist who forecasts such catastrophic events as earthquakes, volcanoes and worldwide depressions. He's not exactly the kind of 

fun guy you would want to have over for a party. ("Hey, everybody! !ben's 

here! Let the bad times roll!") 

Browning's predictions are rather 

vague. He has made a "guesstimate" 

(his word) that there could bean earthquake on Dec. 3 in the Mid-South or maybe. in Califor!lia. or, then again, maybe m Japan. Despite Browning's incredibly imprecise 

.forecast, there is 

panic in the autumn 

air here in the MidSouth. It has already ·been announced 

that a number of 

schools and factories will be closed 

during the first 

week of December. 

Local television stations are broadcasting terror"filled Bill 

movies with pro- Haltom 

vocative titles such 

as "The Big Terrible Disastrous Earthquake That Will Be So Bad That It Will .Make What Godzilla Did Pale By Comparison." 

Mor~ver, ~ousan~s of people are planmng family vacatiOns for the first 

week of December at such tourist spots as Panama City, Fla., and Pigeon Forge Tenli · It's not that Goofy Golf and 

J:?ollywood are particularly nice this 

ttme of year. The attraction of these 

t()ufis.t meccas is that they are several 

bunc:lted miles from Memphis, and ·thousands of miles from Los Angeles and Tokyo. (Let's not take any ch!mces 

folks.) ·· . ' 

_-· Recently, however, a number of 

scientists in the Mid-South have tried to 

qu_e}J the fears inspired by Browning's "guesstimate." These scientists have 

questfoned Browning's methodology 

an<,\.)lave said that while a major earthquake ·could well occur in this part of 

the country sometime in the next sever- al years, it is impossible to forecast an earthquake for a particular day or week, like Willard Scott forecasts thundershowers. 

· But despite this criticism, Browning 

is appar~ntly sticking by-his-prediction· or guesstimate or forecast, or whatever 

the heck it is. This raises the question 

of whether we should believe Browning or the counterexperts in the scien· 

tific community. 'To resolve this question once and for 

all, I recently consulted with the MidSouth's foremost expert on earthquakes, Dr. (:hick N. Little. Dr. Little is 

11-24-90 

Memphis 

Commercial 

Appeal 

Reprinted by permission 

of The Commercial Appeal 

Despite Browning's 

incredibly imprecise 

forecast, there is panic 

in the autumn air here 

in the Mid-South. 

professor of quakeology at UCLAOB. That's the University of California at 

Los Angeles at Olive Branch. I reached Dr. Little by calling him at 

his condo in Panama City. For reasons he would not disclose, Dr. Little is on sabbatical from UCLAOB through the 

first week of December. 

I put the question to Dr. Little pointblank: "Is Iben Browning correct in his 

prediction t?-at ther~ could be a majpr 

earthquake m the Mid-South on Decem- ber 3rd?" 

"Of course not," replied Dr. Little in a calm, reassuring voice. But then he 

added, "However, there is some bad news .. . the sky is going to fall on December 4th!" . Personally, I believe (to paraphrase a former president) that we have nothing to fear but fear itself and Ibim 

Browning. Nevertheless, why take 

chances? See you in Dollywood. 

Bill Haltom is!! Memphis lawyer. 

11-25-90 

Miami Herald 

Reprinted with permission of The Miami Herald 

Quake forecast shalies up Mississippi Valley 

By fRED GRIMM 

Herald Staff Wrtter 

COOTER, Mo. - An oozing 

panic has inundated the Mississippi 

Valley. A quiet hysteria. A strange, 

self-conscious, slightly embarrassed 

earthquake phobia. 

F?lks are packing up the china, 

closmg schools, buying. insurance, 

shu~ting businesses, skipping work, 

sellmg homes, moving to Texas, 

taking unplanned vacations and 

shipping the kids offto Granny. 

They're so worried about the 

shaky prognosis of a lone, eccerihic 

climatologist that they're discovering within themselves a sudden need 

to visit that niece in Phoenix. 

They're stocking up on axes, 

ropes, ladders, generators, canned 

food, sleeping bags, batteries, 

radios, flashlights, T -shirts with the 

Ttl be in a motel in Little Rock. People say 

we're silly, but they're not the ones sitting on 

that earthquake fault. ' 

HAZEL CLARK, 

Missouri store owner who says she'll leave the state for most of the week 

advice to "Get the Hell Out of Memphis" and enough bottled water to 

irrigate the Sahara. 

Old Dody McClure is thinking 

about relocating, temporarily, into 

the ~ter City Calaboose - the 

dank, smelly but solid concreteand-steel jail, retired some 30 years 

ago. His daddy, the late Cooter, 

Mo., town marshal, built the squat 

little structure in 1925. 

"He built those walls a foot 

thick," said McClure, 77. "I don't 

think the earthquake's goinj! to 

knock it down." 

Down through the Missouri Boot 

Heel, in the southernmost reaches 

of Illinois, on the flat alluvial plains 

along the Mississippi River in 

Arkansas and Mississippi, in the 

foothills and river bluffs of the western fringes of Tennessee and Kentucky, the fear is not of an earthquake. · 

It's the earthquake, the one coming Dec. 3. Or maybe Dec. 4. 

Despite an overwhelming, nearly 

unanimous chorus of derision from 

the scientific world, including the 

U.S. Geological Survey, the "projection" of New Mexico climatologist Iben Browning of a December 

earthquake along the area's New 

Madrid Fault has set off an extraordinary reaction. 

Browning, 72, figured a 50-50 

chance for a quake along the New 

Madrid, and thousands of residents 

found bini· credible enough to see 

the situation as two stark choices -

leave and be safe or stay and, as 

Wallace Caruthers of Ridgely, 

Tenn., put it, "maybe get swlnowed 

PLEASE SEE PHOBIA, lA 
136 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

11-25-90 

Miami Herald (Continued) 

Tremor projection shakes 'em up 

Dec. 3 doomsday forecast leaves many Mississippi Valley folks edgy 

PHOBIA, FROM 1A 

up by the earth." 

"I'll be in a motel in Little Rock " 

said Hazel Clark of Cottonwo~ Point, a little Missouri farm town by 

the MissisSippi River and slapon top 

of the infamous Ne.w Ma!irid Faull 

She'll close h~r tiny grocerY: store, 

shrug off the lost business .and be 

gone most of that week. ''People SaY 

we're silly, but they're not the ones sitting on U!at earthquake faUlt. .. . 

The. New Madrid is a geological 

crack m the earth's crust zigzagging 

along the 120 miles from Cairo, Ill,, 

to the village of Black Oak, five 

miles below ~arked Tree, Ark. The 

fault produced a series of the most 

horrific earthquakes in U.S. history 

dunng the winter of 1811-12 disturbing the surface so Violently that 

the Mississippi River reportedly 

flowed upstream for four days. 

Since then, the faUlt has produced 

occasional mild tremors, but until 

recently it has been mostly ignored. 

"To tell you the truth, I haven't 

even thought about that fault until 

about two months ago," said Steve 

Pardue, a ranger with Reelfoot Lake 

State Park in the northwest comer 

of Tennessee who grew up within 

151J!i!es of the faUlt line. 

'Earthquake lake' 

No one in the area paid it much 

mind, although Reelfoot Lake is 

advertised as Tennessee's "earthquake lake," created, geologists 

think, when the 19th-Century quake 

compressed the earth beneath a 

sprawling swamp and · raised the 

earth's surface downstream to create,a natural dam,. But since Browning; s warning, Reelfoot Lake has 

become less of a natural' resort than 

an ominous monument to the awesome danger beneath the surfaceanother reason to head for the hills. 

"I'll be glad when Dec. 3 has 

come and gone," said Pardue, 

whose park staff has grown increasingly antsy about working that day. 

Scientists for years have been 

warning of a terrible earthquake 

looming along the New Madrid, but 

few paid muCh attention. Memphis, 

for example, has largely ignored 

their warnings to pass stringent 

earthquake-safe building codes. 

Suddenly, to the chagrin of the 

nation's earthquake scientists, a 

pseudo-geologist has everyone listening - warning that not only was 

an earthquake possible, it was imminent. While the geologis.ts would 

only say there was a strong possibility of a major earthquake sometime 

FRED GRIMM I Miami Het'ald 

JAILHOUSE REFUGE?: With Ray Pugh at his side, Dody McClure, lett, says he may move into closed 

Cooter, Mo., jail to avoid possible Dec. 3 quake: In 1925, his daddy built the jail walls 'a foot thick.' 

in the next 50 years, this fellow 

Browning captured a massive audience by naming the very week he 

figured it could strike. 

The public, their fears intensified 

by claims that Browning predicted 

last year's earthquake in the San 

Francisco area, abruptly was jolted 

from a blissful complacency to a 

wide~yed, run-for-the-hills dread. 

The scientific community has 

tried in vain to discredit Browning's 

methods and .soothe the infectious 

trepidation along the faUlt lir.e. But 

no matter, the public alarm seems to 

have gained momentum. 

School• call off cia .... 

One school system after another 

along the New Madrid Fault 

announced, sometimes sheepi&hly, 

that classes won't be held Dec. 3 or 

1. "I don't really believe Browning's 

theories," said john Sellars, principal of the R -3 School in Pemiscot 

County, a rural Missouri county left 

pocked by ponds and sinkholes after 

the 1812 earthquake. 

But he canceled classes anyway. 

Sellars said the school shoUld be 

closed for practical, economic reasons. Missouri ··schools are paid 

according to their average daily 

Knight· Ridder Tribune News enrollment. The principal said that 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 137 

his school, like most others along 

the fault line, expeCted attendance 

to ~ so low those two days that to 

remain open ,would be a costly venture. 

"We've got some parents, even 

some teachers who are just hysterical over this," he said. 

Sellars admitted a certain uneasiness; while he doubted Browning, 

he was cowed by even a minute 

prospect of the old school's brick 

walls caving in on his 200 pupils, 

grades kindergarten . through eight. 

"If nothing happens, I guess people 

will laugh at us," he said. "Well, it's 

still better to be laughed at then to 

take a chance with the lives of children." 

. The closing of some schools has 

lent Browning's earthquake theory 

a certain respectability, increasing 

the pressure for others to follow 

suit. Towns and counties along the 

fault canceled vacations for firefighters and police officers. Once 

lonely state and county emergency 

preparedness officials have suddenly been booked solid, giving 

earthquake survival tips to standing-room-only crowds in rural 

schools and churches. Ttu;ee hundred crowded into Sellars' little 

brick school last month for such a talk. 

lne.urance ia booming 

Insurance companies have done 

an unexpected business, selling $40 

to $90 premiums for a year's worth 

of earthquake insurance. State 

Farm Insurance's regional office in 

Monroe, La., reported that sales of 

earthquake insurance have jumped 

from 100 policies a month to 

10,000. 

Store owners have reported 

equally large sales of emergency 

supplies for folks who plan to stay. 

Pam Wright, who runs the Marked 

Tree city water department, said 

many who are staying in town Dec. 

3 aren't doing so out of skepticism 

toward Browning's prediction. 

"They're afraid of looters." 

"Of course, I'm worried," said 

Dude Provost, whose soybean and 

cotton farm at Black Oak, Ark., is at 

the southernmost end of the fault. 

The pastoral setting, this expanse of 

rich, flat farmland, so unthreatening, adds a certain surreal air to talk 

that this same earth could administer .killer tremors. 

There are plenty of skeptics. "I 

Is doomsayer a fraud 

or earthqualie guru? IIJ.I~SKINDAU 

Newsday 

On Oct. 10, 1989, in a conference room at the historic San 

Francisco Hotel, a stooped man 

with a gray burr cut and the 

demeanor of a tired professor 

shuffled to the podium. Gazing at 

a roomful of manufacturing executives, !ben Browning once. again 

issued his prognosis for the 

planet, talking of storms, tornadoes and volcanic eruptions and 

the revolutions, famines and 

plagues likely to result. 

In closing, the 72-year-old climatologist and inventor made a 

startling projection: A major 

seismological event would take 

place somewhere in the world in 

seven days. Almost to the day, 

the Lorna Prieta earthquake 

struck in California, leaving 67 

people dead. 

A year later, Browning recalls 

feeling "terrible" after the 

quake. He blinks like a befuddled 

owl behind his bifocals. "There is 

no scientific attitude toward 

disaster. There's only a human 

attitude toward disaster," he 

says. 

Asked about the swirl of pu!r 

licity over his dark foresight, 

reports in which .he has been 

characterized as everythmg 

from a charlatan to an earthquake guru, his respon!.e again is 

emphatic. 

"It's a curse," he says. 

Browning is a New Mexico scientist who has long theorized 

that solar and lunar forces can 

have a triggering effect on volcanoes and earthquakes. Now he 

has caused a few tremors of his 

own with his projection of a 

50..50 chance of an earthquake 

around Dec. 3 along the New 

Madrid fault close to the Mississippi River. .· . Seismologists acknowledge 

this fault is potentially the 

nation's most dangerous, one 

long overdue for a major shake. 

But will it shake again around 

Dec. 3? Most experts scoff. 

Browning's method of quake 

prediction has been discarded as 

being unreliable, authorities say. 

Last month, 11 scientists stated 

that it was based on "random 

guessing." 

The U.S. Geological Society, 

which obtained a tape of Browning's San Francisco speech, 

noted that he never mentioned a 

location and his projected magnitude was 6 on the Richter scale. 

There are about 110 quakes 

each year registering 6, which 

gave Browning's projection a 

one-in-three chance of success. 

But Browning has supporters, 

including David Stewart, head of 

the Center for Earthquake Studies in Cape Girardeau, Mo., a 

geophysicist and seismolo~ist 

who sees the New MeXIco SCientist as a misinterpreted genius. 

Says Stewart, "This is the kind 

11-25-90 

Miami Herald (Continued) 

guess if I can't hop out of one of 

those cracks, I'll be in big trouble," 

laughed Buck Tucker, 69, of Black 

Oak. 

"I think that a lot of folks are just 

looking for a reason to get out of a· 

day's work," Jesse Davis, a grocer. 

from Cottonwood Corners, Ark., 

said wryly. "When I first heard 

about this, I thought it was a rumor. 

started by the insurance companies." 

W.D. McElhaney, 87, of Caruthersville, Mo., waved his arms in disgust. "I tell you what they know 

about predicting earthquakes," he 

said, leaning on his biCycle. "You 

know when it hits. You know when it. 

quits." 

Moving out 

But everybody knows someone 

who's leaving. · 

Gerald McKenzie drove from Sari: 

Antonio to Marked Tree, Ark., last 

week. "Just one reason-to get my 

mother and take her back to Texas. 

before bee. 3.""•• < · 

of a mentality the scientific community so rarely sees, they seldom understand it. Who understood Einstein? He never said it 

was certain. He just said conditions are right. He issued an 

earthquake watch, that's all." 

Browning bases his statistical 

"projections" - not predictions, 

he insists - on the pull of the 

sun and moon and their alignment in relation to Earth. Using 

these figures, he says, he has 

succ~ssfully called six other 

major l!pheavals, including the 

1980 Mount St. Helens eruption 

and the 1985 Mexico City earthquake. 

The highest combination of 

these forces in 60 years will 

come together Dec. 3, he says, 

and might cause any number of 

earthquakes or eruptions within 

the horizontal band of 30 to 60 

degrees latitude in the Northern 

Hemisphere. This includes 

places such as Tokyo and San 

Francisco's Hayward fault. 

During a rare interview, he 

leans on the arm of his wife of 45 

years, Florence, and hobbles on 

fleece-lined house slippers . . 

His voice hardly rises above a 

hoarse whisper. He hints of droll 

humor •. Mentioning possible 

quake sites in December, he 

says, "I'm rooting for Iraq." 

Browning is the chief scientist 

at Summa Medical -Corp., a biotechnology research comliany. 

He writes a monthly newsletter 

about global climate effects. 

His jobs have ranged fro.m college teacher to weapons anaJyst 

John H. Brown, who owns the 

Cow Bar restaurant in Marked' 

Tree, is staying. "But my sister quit 

her job, a good-paying job, and 

moved out two months ago and took 

my morruna with her. All because of 

this earthquake." 

Brown points to a gray brick 

house across the street with a "for 

sale" sign in the front yard. "Those 

folks moved away Without even selling their ho"use. They said they'd 

come back and sell it later. If anything was left." 

].D. Dunlap said he knew a family 

down the street from his home in 

Lepanto, Ark., that just moved 

away. "Said it was because of the 

earthquake. Course, it could be that 

they owed money to everybody in 

town. 

"I don't believe any earthquake is 

coming Dec. 3," Dunlap said. Then 

he allowed himself a small grin. "Of course, I don't believe I'll be going 

up in any tall buildings that day." 

for the federal governme11t, the 

result of his decision to change 

occupations every three years. 

Who's Who lists him as a Ph.D in 

physiology, genetics and bacteriology, a holder of numerous U.S. 

and foreign patents, the author 

of three books and a researcher 

in optical engineering, information theory, brain physiology, 

enzymes and climatology. 

Though his projections involve 

computer analysis of gravitational forces, he has no argument 

with seismologists who contend 

earthquakes and volcanoes are 

caused by internal, not external 

forces. Of course, he says, the 

energy comes from within; he's 

talking about what starts them. 

"Everyone has the same bowl 

of beads I do," he says. "I just 

string 'em differently." 

'IT'S A CURSE!' 

lbOO Browning. 

A Newsday article, reprinted by permission. 

Newsday, Inc., copyright 1990 
138 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

11-25-90 

Paducah (Ky.) Sun 

Reprinted by permission 

For once, you won't read it here first 

Last S'widay rswung a pretty mean stick at 

school boards and other education officials who are buckling under and closing their schools 

because of an earthquake projection by a man who even they admit IS probably out to lunch. 

It was not an easy thing ·to do. I like these 

people.· But I stand by what I said. It is time to 

exert a little leadership, dammit. 

But in fairness, school superintendents and 

board members should not have to face this 

music alone. They have been placed between the 

proverbial "rock and a hard place" and in all 

honesty, the state (preferably through the leadership of the governor) should have stepPed in to 

give them an out. It still may not be too fate. The problem is that in Kentucky, state money 

to the schools is paid based in part on daily 

average attendance. Superintendents in various 

systems told me last week that they conducted 

surveys and determined as many as 40 percent of their students would stay home on Dec. 3-4 

because of the quake "projection." · One superintendent said . such an outcome 

would cost his system about $40,000 in state 

money. He says his system runs on as lean a budget as possible, and cannot afford to forego such money simply to make a point. 

Another superintendent told me he was at a meeting in Tennessee, and school officials there were somewhat amused by Kentucky's dilemma. 

Tennessee, he saysi uses a different formula for 

allotting the state money. If I remember cor- rectly, that state considers the average attend· ance over three-month periods, and bases the 

payments on the best two attendance months out 

of the three. Such a system apparently makes it 

easier to stand up against a two-day fearfest. 

But that's getting a bit afield. Long term, 

certainly this sort of formula may be something Kentucky will want to look at. But my question is this: Why, given these extraordinary circumstances, can't the state step in and suspend the 

monetary disincentive for keeping the schools 

open? It seems the state did something like that 

in 1977-78, when we had the big snows. Why not 

now? 

11-25-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

• I am always at a loss to explain why some of 

my Sunday ramblings generate volumes of 

''atta-boys", others bring out the ugly en masse, 

and still others seem to generate no interest at 

all. They all seem about the same to me when I 

write them. 

But my crack at the absurdity of the quake mania generated more callS . and mail by far 

than anything I have written all year. Save 

complaints from a couple of superintendents that 

my wording was pretty undiplomatic (which it 

was) and a letter from a schoolteacher who 

basically did not want to put up with a lot of 

scared kids on Dec. 3-4 (she could not bring 

herself to sign her real name, which is sad 

commentary) the calls and letters were otherwise universally supportive. , 

I suppose that is good in ~ way, although my favorite saying to callers, pro and con, is that one cannot run a popularity . contest and expect 

to run a decent newspaper• at the same time. It 

worries me too. I wonder about · the 20-20 

hindsight that is likely to ~rupt when people 

wake up a few weeks from now, realize this 

whole "tides and earthquakes" furor was dumb 

and start looking for someone other than themselves to blame. 

The press seems a likely (and rather deserving) target; so, too, do the school systems. 

Rationality certainly hasn't,governed this debate so far, so I don't expect that to change after the 

fact. It could get ugly, folks: 

. ' Let he who is without sin cast the first stone. I mentioned today and in my last column that 

Warning 

Some Experts Favor 

Early Quake Alert 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

RESCUE WORKERS who crawled beneath 

the wreckage of the Cypress Street VIaduct 

In Oakland, Call!., alter the earthquake In 

the Siln Francisco area In October 1989 were glad 

lo kriow thai they would have some warning of 

aftershocks. · 

That warning came !rom a makeshift system 

built within a week of the quake by scientists with 

a heaithy share of blame for the earthquake scare can be placed at the feet of the press and 

other media. I also wrote last Sunday that l 

would try to grind the Dec. 3-4 "projection~:; 

hoopla off of the pages of this newspaper. 

It has been like trying to kill a cancer. My 

reporters and editors have found it next to 

impossible to report the school closings, disaster 

drills, etc., without making some reference W 

the growing hysteria. 

So Friday, I imposed Draconian measures .. t 

told my reporters that, other than further school 

closings or an actual quake, no more earthquak~ 

stuff of any kind is to grace our pages until at 

least the weekend after Dec. 3-4. I told them~ 

also . would ask the publisher to reject ads foJ. 

earthquake supplies and strongly discourage earthquake-related promotional ads during tba'f 

period. The latter remains the publisher's call;. 

of course (he has been out of town). 

These steps are painful. On the dollar side 9( the issue, times are not wonderful for newspa-. 

pers or many other businesses I know of. And if. we were to shove the responsibility issue aside, even I admit covering the hysteria and the. 

descent of the national press upon us Dec. 37t 

would make for fun, well-read stories. Oth~~ 

media will do those stories. We won't. It will!Je. . hard on my reporters. --

And there is always the remote chance that 'II' 

big quake might actually coincide with the: 

aforementioned dates, in which case I suppose' 

I'll be told to start brushing up on the law 

business again. 

But this is a fine newspaper and my predece~ 

sors in this job have moved mountains and 

endured much to establish it as a credible and 

trusted institution in this community. Continuirit 

that tradition requires us from time to time fit 

take controversial and perhaps unpopular stand'~ 

on the side of reason. 

This is one of those times. 

the U.S .. Geological Survey. They placed three 

tremor-sensitive devices near the quake's epicenter and linked them via radio to a loud warning 

signal at the crumbled viaduct, more than 50 miles 

away. 

Because radio waves easily outrun the shock 

waves of a quake, the rescuers would get about 20 

seconds -warning of Impending damage from a 

strong aftershock. Theoretically, It would allow 

them to escape !rom dangerous spots. ','In a practical sense, it dldn'l end up having too 

much Impact," said Thomas Heaton, a seismologist 

with the survey. "But In the future, we'll be In a 

better position to set up that kind of system faster, 

and some of us thll)lk we skould be prepared to do 

so" A disputed forecast lor a major earthquake 

In the Midwest's New Madrid fault about Dec. 3 has 

brought forth a proposal lor a similar warning 

device In the Sl Louis region. The proposal itself is 

controversiaL 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 139 

The system could gi ve St. Louis area residents 30 

to 60 seconds of warning if shock waves from a 

potentially damaging quake were headed here, 

said Peter Handel, a physicist at !he University of 

Missouri-St. Louis. That inight be enough time lor 

some people to avoid dangerous situations and lind 

secure places to ride out a quake. 

"It would give time for the dentist to take the 

drill out of a patient's mouth and tor the person 

ready to step Into the bathtub to put something on 

and run outside the house," Handel said. 

But other scientists are skeptical that such warnIng would be sufficient to take useful safety steps. 

Some believe a warning, even It It were accurate 

and timely, would do more harm than good by 

causing panic and injuries. 

That's because Midwesterners are relatively unfamiliar with earthquakes and how to respond to 

ihem, these experts said. 

: .. Earthquake warning systems have been · used on 

railroad systems In Japan since the 1960s, said Heaton, of the U.S. Geological Survey, in Pasadena, Calif. 

The devices were crude at first, but they have 

evolved into etncient, automatic warning systems 

that get frequent use. 

The best-known application is on Japan's bullet 

train system. An array of sensing devices placed in 

geologically active areas shuts down trains if it detects a quake strong enough to damage the rail 

system and cause an accident. 

In a 1985 paper in the journal Science, Heaton 

proposed a model for a computerized seismic alert 

Qetwork for California. It would sense a major quake 

as it· was erupting, instantly calculate its size and 

where it would strike, and trigger warning systems' in 

appropriate areas. 

Such a warning might provide enough time for 

people to evacuate hazardous areas and tor automated devices to shut down elevators, utilities, indUstrial 

processes and other activities that would sutter from 

the Impact of a major quake. 

· · In principle, seismic alert systems could be 

useful tor 

more than 

just warnings, Heaton 

said . They 

could help 

emergency 

officials determine the 

impact of a 

quake so 

they can respond appropriately. 

The computerized 

network 

would follow 

the quake, 

estimate its 

scale and 

predict 

where the 

Post-Dispalch Map most darn-

- age is likely. :- :·vou'd be amazed at the contusion tollovcing a major quake," he said. "You don't know where the 

hardest hit areas are or what the size of the problem 

15.-It takes time to determine this, often at a time 

~ben communications systems aren't functioning 

J>f9perly." 

•: 'file current seismic network in California is not so 

lai advanced. It does not issue warnings. Scientists 

)li'~ lrylng to improve it so it can give important 

{jJlake Information to emergency otncials within a 

lew minutes of a quake. 

- : ''As we evolve our system, it's only a matter of time 

before it turns out warnings," Heaton said. "It's a 

piatfer of technological development" 

- : H!!ndel, the UMSL physicist, said a crude version 

i>f il seismic alert. network - meant solely to issue a 

vianilng - would be simple and cheap to create. He 

h; a highly regarded theoretical physicist who ~ 

11-25-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Continued) 

Gary Bohn/Post-Dispatch 

Peter Handel, a physicist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, who backs an 

earthquake warning system that would trigger loud signals around the St. Louis area. 

plqneered in the field of solid state physics. 

- :Arter detecting a major quake on the fault, the 

system would send a message over a telephone line 

that would outrace the quake's worst shock waves. :rbe message would trigger loud warning signals in 

the metropolitan area, Handel said. 

- Even it the quake erupted on the northern part or the fault. roughly !50 miles lromSL.l.iiJJ.ili.1bf'sysJem 

could give residents here close to 60 seconds warning 

that the destructive forces of a quake were on the 

way, Handel said. Such a system wouldn't help people 

living closer to the fault because the distances ln-

_.yptved are shorter. 

·-The warning system would be set up sOmething 

like this: • A series of four seismic wave detectors would be 

placed in tt- ·. -•· .. . .. They would be programmed 

to respond only when they detected the forces ol a 

maJor quake that could cause damage in Sl Louts 

and Sl Louis County. • 11 such a quake Is detected, a signal would be sent instantly over a telephone line or radio link to a 

central location in Sl Louis. 

• The signal would trigger a distinctive warning 

noise. The noise could come from automatically 

triggered cannons or from existing weather warning 

sirens, Handel said. 

.-Those warning techniques may seem impractical, 

he ·admitted, but some way should be found to use a 

sufficiently loud and recognizable noise to notify 

people throughout the region about a quake, whether 

they are at home, at work, at school or on the street 

Handel said he was proposing the warning system because ol public anxiety about New Mexico 

climatologiSt Iben Browning's 50-50 forecast . of a 

major quake in the fault about Dec. 3. 

Officials sb.ould set up the system before that day, 

even if only crudely, he said. Then, they should 

conduct "a well-advertised drill to familiarize the 

population With the special warning signaL" 

Mark Gartland, director ol the Sl Louts County 

Office of Emergency Management, said be wasn't 

sure bow such a system could be integrated Into the 

area's cutrent syste_m for severe w·eatherwarnings; 

"But it we can come up with anything that can give 

us an advanced warning, even 20 to 25 seconds, you 

could cover yourself and protect yourself from falling objects," Gartland said. "Tb.e big thing is to see 

how reliable it is." 

To Fred Wiltiams, director of emergency management for the city ol SL Louis, Handel's proposal 

"didn't sound practicaL" 

"A lot of geologists and seismologists have been 

working on that for a long time and have not come up 

with a way to do It," Williams said. He said Handel 

should discuss his ideas with experts in the field. 

Several earthquake scientists in St Louis said that 

even It technical roadblocks could be overcome, the 

warning time wouldn't be enough. 

Sean-Thomas Morrissey, a geophysicist at SL Louis 

University, ·said the warning system would provide 

"no advantage whatsoever." 

. The chances of a quake sulticienUy large to cause 

significant damage in Sl Louis are slim enough that 

the risk of causing panic doesn't outweigh the advantages of a quake warning, Morrissey said. · 

"Wb.y give people a heart attack?" he said. "Anything that enhances public panic at this point Is 

counterproductive. Everybody is overreacting." 

Handel said the purpose of the exercise is to 

reduce panic. 

11 the system could give only 35 seconds ol warning. ''The people should know that they have these 35 

-seconds," he said. ''This knowledge is worth lives." 

... The geological survey's Heaton said quake warn-

·lng systems are "not something you want to cobble 

together." 

. ''You have to think about them, and people need to 

-understand what they are and how they work," he 

Said. 

· On the other band, Beaton said, "It you were an emergency worker and digging through rubble, you 

ro~~~e:~~e It if somebody slapped .something 
140 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO. EARTHQUAKE 

11-28-90 COVER STORY 

USA Today 

~=:!:'~~~ Fault line's threat hits 

fever pitch 

has dramatically atrected the 33 million people in striking 

distance of the New Madrid (pronounced MAD-rid) fault 

The prediction by climatologist lben Browning has been 

publicly scoffed at by exper1S. To no avail. In the seven 

states along this town's namesake fault, and even in the 

states beyond, disaster plans are in the works and forebodA ing, tear - even panic - is in the air. lot of 

people will be 

sitting on pins 

and needles 

Buying quake 

insurance, 28 

By Carolyn Pesce 

USA TODAY 

NEW MADRID, Mo. -

Two hundred times a year, the 

earth shifts, usually impercei>-

tibly, below cities and towns 

stretching from Cairo, Ill., to 

Marked Tree, Ark. 

"A lot of people will be sitting on pins and needles waiting 

for the earth to shake," says Stephen Renfro, director of the 

county's health clinic. 

Up to 40,000 students are being let out of school Monday 

- and that's just in Missouri. Across the region, businesses 

are closing, police are standing by, quake insurance is selling and many residents are lleeing the area 

But one man's prediction of 

a major earthquake - of at. 

least 6.5 on the Richter scale 

- on Monday or close to it, 

In White Bluff, Tenn., Mayor Lawrence Brown has even 

canceled the town's Christmas parade, planned for Sunday. 

"I'm the joke of the community right now," says Brown. 

"But let it be. I'd rather have that happen than have a bunch 

of power lines fall on kids or have gas lines start popping." 

Continued from lA 

A big quake could be much worse 

than that Studies done for the Federal Emergency Management Agency 

say the area - site of three monster 

quakes in 1811-12- is ripe for a new 

disaster. 

Major cities like Memphis, Little 

Rock, Ark., and Evansville, Ind., are 

built on soft soil that could literally 

liquifY in a temblor. Brick building; 

could collapse. Roads could buckle. 

The Mississippi could llood. Damage 

could exceed $50 billion. 

If the quake happens at night, 

when people are home, hundreds 

could die, the FEMA study says. If it 

happens In the day, when people are 

in high rises, 5,000 could. 

That is why people are afraid. 

"People are gullible," says Carl 

Bender, professor of physics at 

Washington University in St Louis. 

"There is a real panic on, and in a 

panic people are willing to believe 

the most outrageous things." 

Outrageous is one of the kinder 

thing; scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey are saying about 

Browning these days. While they 

agree that the New Madrid is due for 

a major quake sometime in the next 

30 years, they've called his day-specific prediction bunk, and worse. 

The reason BroWning is focusing 

on Monday - his exact prediction is 

Monday or 48 hours on either side of 

that day - is because that's when 

tidal forces will reach a 60.year high 

for much of the Northern Hemisphere. That will "pull the trigger" 

on earthquakes and volcanoes 

around the world, he says. 

BroWning, 72, claims to have predicted last year's 7.1 California 

earthquake, though that's in great 

dispute. Now, he spends most of his 

time as a consultant for businesses, 

predicting how weather trends will 

alfect crops and companies. 

But here in New Madrid, the 

USA's oldest city west of the Mississippi River, the most fearsome consequence of his prediction is at the 

end of Main Street There, a great levee holds back the Mississippi. In a 

major quake, it could burst 

Others are looking over their 

shoulders, too: . ~ In Arkansas, earthquake drills 

are slated for Dec. 1-5. ''You have 

never seen the kind of damage we 

are going tD be faced with," says Office of Emergency Service ollicial 

Dan Cicirello. 

~At least 1,600 members of the 

KentuckY National Guard are on 

call. "We will be standing by breathlessly," says Adjutant Gen. Michael 

Davidson. 

~ In St Louis, meeting;. conventions and conferences scheduled to 

start this weekend have been canceled. Residents are booking lligbts 

out of town. ~ In Evansville, the Quake Master 

gas shutoff valve is a hot seller. The 

$390 valve is supposed to stop the 

llow of natural gas into building; after a quake. Browning is "throwing 

darts at a calendar but I bless his 

heart for doing it," says company 

owner Frank Cici, who's sold 400 

valves already. 

~ In Collinsville, Ill., trucker Robert Mathis is trying to prepare but, 

"My bouse is brick and they tell me 

that's the first to fall down. . . . I'm 

trying to secure a few things, but 

that's it If the earth underneath your 

bouse crumbles, you can't tell me 

you can do anything about it" 

Even those out of the fault-zone 

are worried. Schools in northern Alabama aren't taking chances. They've 

added earthquake drills to daily routines. In Louisiana, ollicials are concerned about oil and chemical spills 

from plants upstream in st. Louis. 

"Look at the map," says U.S. Army 

Reserve Col. Ray Pendleton. 

"They're looking at a shake-andbreak . . . so spectacular that it's 

blinded them to the possible effects 

past the seven-state area. But it's natural that thing; llow downriver." 

The frenzied reaction upsets people like Douglas Wiens, seismologist 

at Washington University: 

"I'm worried about this sort of hysterical tone that's come out . . . because it's completely ridiculous." 

Others think massive attention 

from the media has fueled the problem. In New Madrid, it has sometimes seemed absurd. 

William Clark, owner of Tom's 

Grill, decided Tuesday how much to 

charge a Peoria, Ill., radio station 

that wants to broadcast from his res- . taurant a steep $200 tor three hours. 

Says Clark: "I think they'll be disappointed. They're not going to see 

any shaking. ... Probably what will 

happen is we'll all get settled down 

and it'll happen in a year." 

But no one's betting the farm. 

"We're believers," says waitress 

Ginger Wasem of Collinsville, who'll 

bead to Wisconsin in early December- with 10 family members. 

"We take this very seriously," says 

Jim Rexroat of st. Louis. 

Francis Payne, who has lived in 

Marianna, Ark., for 75 years, is using 

the trunk of her car and several 

rooms in her bouse to stash medication, food and water. She even got a 

utility worker to come out to show 

her how to tum off the natural-gas. 

People in the smaller communities, like this one, know it'll be neighbor-helping-neighbor it there is a big 

quake. Disaster relief will go first to 

cities like st. Louis and Memphis, 

where casualties could be high. 

"We're prepared for the worst," 

says Chris Henry, emergency management planner for New Madrid. 

The town has spent close to $6,000 on 

emergency supplies for its 3,300 residents in case of a quake. 

Still, New Madrid is short on 

equipment, manpower and money, 

and has crammed what should have 

been three years of planning into 

three months. 

"If it does happen we'll be without 

help for awhile," says Henry. "But I 

think we'll survive." 

Mayor Dick Phillips, who refused 

to cancel Monday night's regular 

City Council meeting, has a more stoic approach. 

"We accept this fault as a way of 

life," he says. "It's been here, and it'll 

be here when we're dead and gone." 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 141 

11-29-90 

Louisville Courier-Journal 

Reprinted by permission of the Associated Press 

A LESSON IN PREPAREDNESS 

ASSOCIATED PRESS 

First-grade students at Uberty (Ind.) Elementary School crouched under desks during an earthquake-prepared~ess drill this week. 

Left to right ara Tucker Hoog, Bobby _Pence, Jessica Jones and Katie Estridge. 

Browning says projection has not changed 

Associated Press 

New Mexico climatologist Iben Browning is 

standing by his controversial projection of a 

50-50 chance for a major earthquake Dec. 2 or 

3, his daughter said yesterday. 

Evelyn Browning Garriss, who works closely 

with her father and edits "The Browning 

Newsletter" on climatology, said nothing had 

changed, despite reports originating yesterday 

with a San Francisco radio station that Browning was backing down from his projection by 

saying the chances of a quake appeared less 

likely in the United States. 

"We have not changed our projection," she 

said in an interview with The Associated Press 

at her home in Tijares, N. M., outside AlbuNews reports 

caused confusion · 

querque. 

Browning has projected a 50-50 chance of an 

earthquake on the New Madrid Fault on Dec. 

2-3, give or take 48 hours, and an even greater 

chance in Japan, "'(hich lies on several faults. 

Earthquake experts and other scientists have 

repeatedly said that Browning's projection -

which relies on tidal forces - is no better than 

a random guess. 

In fact, on Tuesday, a Scientist for the U. ~ 

Geological Survev strongly discounted the project.ou m a briefing v; 'congressional staff 

members in Washington. 

"I can summarize our findings by saying 

there is no reason . . . that a large earthquake 

is more likely to occur ... Dec. 2 or 3 than it is 

today, three weeks from today or any day in 

the future," said . Randall Updike, associate 

chief of the survey's Office of Earthquake, Volcanoes and Engineering. 

However, scientists do agree that a major 

New Madrid quake is likely sometime in the 

nel!.i 15 years, and almost certain to come within the next 50. 

And disaster officials say that media coverage of Browning's projection has raised public 

awareness about earthquake preparedness that 

could prove useful when that day comes. 
142 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

11-29-90 

USA Today 

Copyright 1990. 

Reprinted with permission 

6 years old and 'scared' 

2nd-graders 

caught up 

in quake fear 

By Carolyn Pesce 

USA TODAY 

NEW MADRID, Mo. - Camden Allgier went into the 

principal's omce crying. 

"I dreamed me and my mom were sitting down and 

the earthquake started shaking 

everything," says Camden, 8. Travis Brown is afraid of 

flooding because he can't 

swim. David Spencer worries 

about taking care of his pregnant mother. Tabitha Clark 

says she doesn't want to die. 

These are the second-graders of New Madrid - 6- to 8-

year-<>lds who should be run- ning around the playground 

11-30-90 

without a worry in the world. 

But lben Browning's prediction that a major earthquake 

could strike the New Madrid 

fault around Monday has the 

children here caught up in 

fears as bad as those gripping 

adults from Illinois to Arkan- sas. Or worse. 

They talk about buildings 

falling, rocks hitting people on 

their heads, bad fires and big 

cracks that swallow up people 

into the ground. And while millions of grown-ups scramble to 

get ready for a possible quake, 

the little people are left struggling to understand. 

"Schools focus on drills, first 

aid, things like that," says Los 

Angeles psychologist Robert 

Butterworth, who is coming 

here to counsel townspeople on 

handling stress. "Often, they 

don't focus on the emotional." 

And the 650 children in 

Louisville Courier-Journal 

Copyright@ 1990. Reprinted with permission 

school at the edge of town are 

carrying emotional baggage. 

"I don't like being scared," 

says Tabitha, 7, whose family is 

leaving town because of quake 

fears. "I don't want to die." 

Kristen Riggs, 7, talked to his 

mother about the quake possibility and worries about being 

left at the baby sitter without 

her. "Some buildings might fall 

over," he says. 

"I want to leave. I don't want 

to be dead," says Nicholas Harris, 7, who's just positive a 

quake is going to happen. 

"Even if it doesn't happen, I 

still want to leave. I don't want 

to be in an earthquake." 

Many w¢i'e scared after 

watching an NBC-TV miniseries about a killer quake. "It was kind of scary just 

thinking that would happen 

here," says Lacy Hailey, 8. 

Principal Agnes Hanington 

and teachers around the building have been doing what they 

can to calm the fears. 

"At one point, there was a lot 

of bickering and fussing going on with the kids," says Hanington. "I think it was because of 

the stress." 

Superintendent Robert 

Payne says the entire county 

school district is prepared for a quake, with a disaster plan that 

went into the works last February. Even so, school has been 

canceled Monday and Tuesday 

- a reaction, says Payne, to 

the desire of the community. 

Harrison says she'll be at the 

front door of the school Friday 

afternoon, saying goodbye to 

the kids. But there'll be no talk 

of earthquakes. "I hope we can make it 

through" Monday and Tuesday, she says, "and th~n pick 

up our lives and go on. 

Media hit for fueling quake fears 

By ROBERT T. GARRETT 

Staff Writer 

WASHINGTON- With growing consternation, journalists and press critics alike 

have begun to question the news media's 

role in creating hoopla and hysteria with 

coverage of a renegade scientist's claim 

that a major earthquake is a 50-50 likeliCritics assail 

press for failure 

to probe claim 

hood in the Midwest this weekend or early publications are guilty of treating the earthnext week. The press blew this one big-time, accord- quake forecast uncritically, thereby giving it 

ing to a variety of science reporters, jour- undue credibility. "The media got taken for 

nal~·s · professors and media critics who a ride," he said. we interviewed this week. "This has been pretty silly," added John 

The media have been awful," sait;l Wil- . Franklin, who won two Pulitzer prizes as a 

· .Ham Booth, science writer for The W~h- science, reporter fot the Baltimore Sun and 

lngt~n Post. Booth said even major national is now ,chairman of the journalism department at Oregon State University. 

"I would venture that most of the reporters reporting it think the argument (that 

quakes can be triggered by the pull of a full 

or new moon) is reasonable," Franklin said. 

"They don't know enough about science to 

see the holes in it. It's a sad commentary." 

ViCtor McElheny, director of the Knight 

Science Journalism Fellowships at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said: 

"Y'all better get a better list of experts to 

call and call them more promptly than you 

did on this one. We just can't have witch 

doctors like this allowed to spout stuff without the press really checking it out. At some 

See JOURNALIS.JB 

Backpage;col.l,.tbis sectfoq 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 143 

Journalists 

Continued from Page~ne 

point, sanity has to break out." :None of the science journalists 

and media observers interviewed 

said the news media should have ig· 

nored the claims of New Mexico eli· 

matologist Iben Browning. 

(In several speecjies and inter· 

views, Browning has stated that 

there is a 50·50 chance that a quake 

measuring between 6.5 and 7.5 on tbe Richter scale will strike along 

tbe New Madrid Fault, which runs from Arkansas to Southern Illinois, 

between tomorrow and Wednes· 

day.) 

"You're only kidding yourself to s~y to yourself that you're not going 

to publish it and keep it out of pub· 

lie circulation," said David Shaw, 

media critic for the Los Angeles 

Times. 

: "But you report it in some con· text," Shaw said. "You remind people that nobody can predict earth· 

quakes, that nobody ever has been 

able to and this guy probably 

doesn't know his ass from his el· 

liow. But you say, 'We thought it was. interesting and we'd let you 

know.'" 

Several science journalists, jour· 

nalism professors and media critics 

said the regional and national press 

failed to treat skeptically Brown· 

ing's claims and past track record of 

predictions; to question Browning's one widely quoted supporter in aca· demic circles; and to explain that 

seismologists have examined and 

discarded the "crustal tides" theory 

l!nderiying Browning's predictions. · ''Where we have had experience 

with earthquakes, nobody would 

t!lke a prediction like that seriously 

at all," said Edwin Guthman, jour· 

nalism professor at the University 

of Southern California. "No self-respecting newspaper would pick up 

those kinds of things unless ·it came 

from a very credible source." 

Browning's credibility- and how 

tough the press was in questioning 

it - dominates the second-guessing 

of the coverage of the affair. 

One issue was whether Browning 

accurately predicted, one week in 

advance, the earthquake that 

rocked the San Francisco area on Oct. 17, 1989. In August and September of this year, both the New 

York Times and Wall Street Journal 

repeated claims that he had. Last month, however, a team 01 

scientists empaneled by the U. S. 

Geglogical Survey release~­

scn~ing's speech to farmequipment manufacturers in San 

Francisco on Oct. 10, 1989. It 

showed that Browning said, "There 

will probably be several quakes 

around the world on Oct. 16, 1989." 

But he didn't specify where, and he 

didn't predict one for California, the 

transcript showed. He was also off 

by a day. 

.. Another issue has been the, me· dia's reliance on one professor and 

several business associates of 

Browning who back his credibility. 

Science magazine reported last 

month that David Stewart - the 

earthquake expert at Southeast Mis· 

souri State University who has been 

widely quoted as admiring Brown· 

ing's techniques and intelligence - had used a psychic and other para· 

normal techniques to t,Y to refine an earthquake prediction he had 

made in North Carolina in 1974. 

Efforts to reach Stewart yesterday were unsuccessful. 

The Courier-Journal reported ear· ly this month that virtually all of the 

people who could be found to verify 

Browning's claims of accurate 

earthquake predictions had busi· ness and social ties to him. 

A larger issue has been how the 

media have presented the claims of 

Browning, a 72-year-old business 

FEARS OF AN EARTHQUAKE 

11-30-90 

Louisville Courier-Journal 

(Continued) 

consultant with a background in bi· many schools will be closed Mon· 

ology, not geology. day :- .has le~ many journalists 

The Geological Survey's team of questlorung therr own performance. 

scientists noted that about 110 One newspaper editor in Western 

quakes with a magnitude of 6.0 oc· Kentucky, which sits atop the New cur each year, or roughly one every Madrid Fault along which the quake 

three days. is supposed to occur, felt so guilty 

Thomas Heaton, the scientist who about contributing to the panic that 

heads the Survey's Southern Cali· last week he ordered a two-week 

fomia office, told the Los Angeles ban on earthquake news in his pa· 

Times this month that he had once per. That is, unless a quake occurs. studied 80 quakes to see whether "Ninety-nine percent of the peethe gravitational pull of the moon pie in the media think this guy 

and sun could have triggered them. (Browning) is not credible, and yet 

Heaton found that 79 of the 80 did it's just filling up our newspapers 

not occur during new or full moons, and the 1V stations are having rat· 

the times of maximum tidal stress. ings wars over it," said Jim Paxton, 

Part of the allure of the story, sev· editor of The Paducah Sun. 

era! people said, has been. the in· Paxton said he made his decision 

triguing possibility that an old man after he read that Browning 'told a could outperform government agen· St. Louis audience on Nov. 15 that 

cies that have been thoroughly frus· high tidal forces triggered the rise 

trated in trying to predict quakes. of Nazism in Germany in the 1930s. 

''We let this guy get away with "The time came to say no," he said. 

being highly and wildly irresponsi· Irene Nolan, managing editor of 

ble," said Booth, the Washington The Courier-Journal, said the news· 

Post science writer. "It's fun. Every· paper would continue to cover resi· 

body likes to write about the icono- dents' preparations for the predict· 

clastic scientist who goes his own ed quake and their activities and reway and goes against the ivory tow· actions through Tuesday. 

er .•.. But this guy didn't have the "This phen?menon h.as grown 

goods and wedidn't give people a and ~own smce ,we. fiTS! hew:d 

way to decide if this guy was a flake about It, and there s little doubt m or not." my mind that media coverage has 

Despite such shortcomings, some helped it grow," Nolan said. 

editors and media critics said they :·aut on !he ?t~er hand, .I don:t 

believe the stories about Browning's think ignonng 1t IS responsible e1· 

forecast have served a useful pur· ther .. The real .question is how the 

pose - raising public awareness media handle 1t after Dec. 3 ...• I 

about earthquakes where such con· hoP<: that after Dec. 3 the med_ia will 

sciousness didn't exist. continue to find out what kind of 

Still, the extent to which the pub- (disast.er-readiness) . preparati?ns 

lie has taken Browning seriously - are being made in therr area. I think as reflected by sales of homeown· it's a significant issue." 

ers' earthquake insurance and sur· viva! kits, and announcements that 

11-30-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Q.uake Forecast Stalled State Disaster Planning 

ByW'lliam Allen 

Of.ltui'Post-Cispatch Staff 

!ben Browning's earthquake forecast has seriously disrupted Missouri'splans to respond to earthquakes and 

oth.er.disasters, an official with the ~tii!~ Emergency Management Agency SB.Id Thursday. 

· 9,werwhelming public reaction to ~ .. ·disputed forecast forced agency ~ ~~~Is to take staff members off two 

ke(emergency preparedness pro, jects; said Charles Walker, operations 

9,ff\cer with the agency. . ,;"J;Je. [Browning] has caused us un- :!lu{]lardship," Walker said. "1 wish 

tlte panic had not gone along with the 

PT.£Baredness." 

;::Jr~.l!<er made the conimerits at a seminar on earthquake preparedness 

sponsored by the Urban Land Insti· 

tute. The seminar was h.eld at the 

Missouri Botanical Garden. 

Browning .. a climatologist from New 

Mexico, has, said there is a 50-50 

chance of an earthquake measuring 

between 6.5 and 7.5 on the Richter 

scale In the New Madrid Fault th.ls 

Saturday through. Wednesday. A na- tional panel of earthquake experts has 

called the forecast "sclentiflcally in· 

valid" and found Browning had pre- dicted no other earthquakes. Staff members at the state agency 

spent weeks answering "thousands 

and thousands" of telephone calls 

from residents in Missouri concerned 

about Browning's forecast, Walker 

said. The staff members mailed information ·about earthquake prepared-' 

ness and established A speakers bU· reau that fanned out around the state 

to discuss the earthquake threat and 

to "calm some people down." 

Meanwhile, two efforts to improve · the state's disaster plan languished. 

The plans detail h.ow officials should 

respond to damage caused by floods, 

tornadoes, earthquakes and other 

disasters.. · . :~: . · "We need to do these [Improve· inents] badly," Walker said. 

Staffers at th.e agency started th.e 

year working oil a new crisis manage· 

ment system th.at had received fund· 

ing from the Feder.al Emergency 

Management Agency, Walker said. They also began a study to improve the state's communications plan. The crisis management system 

would help maintain th.e "continuity 

of government" after a major disas· 

ter, Walker said. It would tnclude 

plans for JliOVing state operations 

from Jefferson City to Rolla if government activity in the capital was dis· 

rupted by a disaster. · 

The communications plan would 

improve the chances that state off!· 

cials could get In contact with. each 

other immediately after a dtsaSter.to 

coordinate emergency operations. Speakers at th.e seminar discounted 

Browning's forecast Instead, they focused on how architects, engineers, 

real estate developers and others can plan to make th.e StLouis 'region safer 

from damage from an larthquake 

sometime in th.e next few decades. 
144 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTIIQUAKE 

11-30-90 

Weekly Record (New Madrid, Mo.) 

Reprinted by permission 

Reporters Betting On Quake To Occur 

by Clement Cravens 

The weekend we have all been 

waiting fof has finally arrived We 

now get to fmd oiu if 1ben Browning 

is a quack or on track. 

Our town will soon be flooded with 

members of the news media who are 

hoping to catch on film, or describe in 

words, the next major earthquake to 

occur in lhe Ul_lited States. • 

One of two lhings will occur, this 

will either be lhe most well-documented disaster in our nation's history.;or it will be the mostwell~u' 

menieafaicelnoiJrillitio!i'shi.stOry. t 

(with crossed fingers) choose the latter. 

Over lhe past several monlhs our 

12-1-90 

area has literally been "put on the 

map" by the publicity surrounding 

Browning's"projection". Television, 

newspaper and radio crews. · have 

swarmed our streets like ants invading a picnic, but hopefully they will 

fmdnofood. 

Initially, there presence was "ne:it" 

as we all were exCited about our flfSt 

interview on TV or quoted in a national or big city newspaper. But as 

the number of reporters grew, and the 

list ofNEW'questions decreaseq, our 

media friends began to be welcomed 

much the same as the above mentioned ants at a picnic. 

But, wecan'tblamelhem. They are 

just doing their job. Right now, we 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission of The Commercial Appeal 

Japan, Calif. stay cool 

as Midwest sweats out 

Dec. 3 quake forecast 

By Marc Perrusquia The Commercial Appeal 

!ben Browning has Middle 

America all shook up, but his 

earthquake prediction hasn't 

dazed residents in California 

and Japan. 

Mike Blackburn, a Marine 

guard in the American Embassy 

in Tokyo, said Friday that he 

isn't losing sleep worrying about 

the Big One. • 

"I've been here over a year now and I've experienced probably over 300 earthquakes," said 

Blackburn, 24, of Cincinnati. 

"Everybody just goes ahead with 

their lives." 

Browning, a New Mexico eli· 

matologist, says high tidal forces 

make a major quake likely on or about Monday for the· Midwest, 

California and Japan. The prediction, rejected by most earth· 

quake experts, has raised fears 

along the New Madrid seismic zone, which runs from Cairo,lll., to Marked Tree, Ark., some 35 

miles northwest of Memphis. 

In ameJ:!ding his prediction 

this week, Browning said he is 

particularly concerned about Japan and worried about California. 

In other quake prediction deAlthough it has created a regional 

frenzy, lben Browning's projection 

that there is a 50· 50 chance for an 

earthquake in the New Madrid fault 

zone in earty December has been 

rejected as scientifically unfounded 

by most geologists, including the 

National Earthquake Prediction 

Evaluation Council. 

velopments Friday: 

• Arkansas officials pretend-· ed Friday that an earthquake 

struck eastern Arkansas and 

that it cut off electricity, com- munications and travel to 16 

counties. The drill will begin in earnest at noon today when offi· 

cials with more than a dozen state and federal agencies, in· 

eluding the Arkansas National 

Guard, open sealed packets that 

outline the damage in their counties~ 

• A scientific survey by two Memphis State University mar- keting professors this week 

shows that very few Memphis 

ARE lhe biggest story that's about to 

happen (they hope, and we hope not). 

In my opinion, there is a good side 

and bad.sille to all this hoopla surrounding our earthquake prediction. 

. On the good side; we ARE better 

prepared for an earthquake that ALL 

experts agree will occur in most of our 

lifetimes. Wilhout this exposure we 

probably would not have prepared to 

the degree that 'we have. This will 

definitely save lives whenever we have 

the earthquake. Now or in 1999. 

On the bad side, too many lives 

have been changed, especially lhe 

elderly and homebound, who now sit 

and worry about their impending 

doom. They should not have to suffer 

metropolitan-area residents be· 

lieve Browning's predictiOn. • Earthquake-preparedness 

tips will be offered today at an 

open house provided by the C.en· tral U.S. Earthquake Consortium, a regional group devoted to educating the public and min· 

imizing seismic hazards. The 

free event is scheduled for 10 

a.m.-3 p.m. at CUSEC head· 

quaters, 2630 E. Holmes Road. 

• Memphis Housing Authority 

employees prepared for the "Big 

One" Friday wherr 200 MHA staff 

members participated in an emergency preparedness drill at MHA headquarters, 700 Adams. 

Californians and Japanese 

citizens, who are accustomed to earthquake activity, aren't get· 

ting rattled by Browning's con· 

cern. 

"There's been amazing calm in 

the community in the face of 

this," said Gayle Orr-Smith, San 

Francisco's deputy mayor for 

public safety. "We have not got· 

ten a lot of inquiries." 

Ms. Orr-Smith attributed the 

calm to two factors: The devastating Oct. 17, 1989. quake that 

shook the Bay Area and contin· 

ual slew of earthquake predic· 

tions in California. · 

"We get predictions about 

quakes all the time here," said 

Ms. Orr-Smith, who likened the 

process to crying wolf. Ms. Orr· 

Smith said the San Francisco 

quake last year still is recent enough that people there are not alarmed about having another 

big one so soon. 

Ms. Orr-Smith said San Fran· 

cisco residents can't help but 

chuckle a bit when reading news accounts of panicky · resi· 

dents fleeing New Madrid, Mo. 

"Well, gee, why?" she said. 

In Japan, where earthquakes 

are common, the Browning prediction has received little atten· 

this wa,Y every day of their lives. 

Natural disasters do happen, and 

they are ttagic when human lives are 

lost, but we should notliveour lives in 

constant fear of what we ruive no 

control over. All we can do is prepare 

the best we can, and lhen carry on wilh 

our lives ~ 

But, for now, wehavetogetthrough 

this weekend of national notoriety, 

and let come what may on Monday or 

Tuesday. 

Clpsing on a positive note, I will let 

you in on some inside information I 

received just before deadline: 

Mr. Paul Patchin, a researcher from 

Kansas City who says he has developed an instrument that detects 

cbangesinlhedensityofmatter(which 

he says occurs prior to earthquakes), 

told me Wednesday , morning !hat 

matter was not dense enough right 

now for a major earthquake in lhe 

NewMadridarea. Asmallonemaybe, 

but not a: major one. ; 

It's funny. ldon'tbelievein preQictions, but somehow !hat makes ine 

feel better. 

tion. 

Because of a constant earth· 

quake threat, most buildings 

and public works in Japan are designed to be earthquake resistent. A devastating quake killed 

140,000 people in and around Tokyo in 1923, but a 1984 quake reg· 

istering 7.9 on the Richter scale 

caused little damage. 

"They're just prepared for it," 

said Blackbucn, the Marine em· 

bassy guard. 

In Arkansas, Gary Talley, 

spokesman for the Office of 

Emergency Services, called damage resulting from the east Ar· 

kansas quake scenario "devastating. Absolutely devastating." 

Under the scenario, an earth· 

quake measuring 7.6 on the 

Richter scale was centered at 

Marked Tree at 3 p.m. 

At 4 p.m .. the scenario called 

for OES getting no word from its 

county coordinators in 15 east- ern Arkansas counties, Talley 

said. The lack of communication 

would make it impossible to tell 

how many people were killed in 

the first hour of a quake, he said. 

"It's the quiet areas that are the hardest hit." he said. 

Meanwhile. the Memphis State 

survey shows area residents 

know a lot about earthquakes, 

but they aren't too rattled by 

forecasts for a temblor next week. 

''The general feeling from the 

people is, 'It's not going to happen,"' said 0. C. Ferrell, a distin· 

guished professor of marketing 

who helped conduct the survey. 

Of 143 metropolitan-area resi· 

dents questioned in the survey, 

only 8 percent said they believe a quake is likely on or near Monday, as projected by Browning. 

The random survey was con- ducted by Ferrell and assistant 

marketing professor T. Bettina 

Cornwell this week. 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 145 

Ingenuity replaces 

missing ingredients 

for quake cooking 

By.William C. Bayne 

The Commercial Appeal 

N.ow let's face it. If a major 

earthquake did happen, even the Piggly Wiggly might close. 

And that could mean that you might have to live with what's · on hand for a few·days. 

You might even have to cook it 

yourself - and that could be a sudden burden for those who 

don't have charcoal grills or who think outdoor cooking is a skill best left to Boy Scouts. 

So if you're faced with Craig Claiborne-style Armageddon, 

keep it simple. First, gather the 

necessary tools: long-handled forks, tongs or pancake turners; ca~t-iron ~kjU~t ~d o_ther pats 

and pans;-heavy: aluminum foil. 

Most department stores and a number of hardware stores have cans of "liquid heat" that can be 

used repeatedly for cookip.g. Outside is better than in for 

any type of open-fire cooking, 

and·best results will come if you 

protect the flame from the heatscattering winds. 

A homemade, substitut~ 

steady burner can be made: 

Tightly cqil up rough cardboard, 

place inside a coffee or smaller 

can, cover cardboard with melted paraffin and allow the wax to 

congeal. The cardboard will serve as a wick from which the 

paraffin is burned gradually. 

The flame can be used directly 

to heat a pot, for soups or stews, or it can be used under a grill to 

heat a skillet or pot. When it's 

time to douse the flame, put a larger pot over the fire. 

Food sources will require 

thought. If your freezer is full, 

the frozen food will stay cold 

longer if the freezer door is kept 

shut. Generally, foods frozen 

hard will last for up to 36 hours 

in a closed freezer. 

Milk, butter, margarine, yogurt and cheese will spoil - likely in that order-if not kept ~ool. If the outdoor temperature 1s 40 degrees or less, items will 

be cooler outside in the shade 

than in an inoperative refrigerator. 

If ice is available, wrap dairy 

products in a sealing plastic 

wrap and put them on ice until 

used .. In the eve.nt of a m~ajor 

power outage for 72 hours or less, the ice could keep dairy 

products fresh. 

If it appears that the power 

will remain off for an· extended 

period, use perishable frozen or refrigerated foods first, and fish 

first of all. Canned goods will 

last longer, as will dry goods such as rice, dried beans, flour 

and cornmeal. __ Common sense will tell you 

that boiled eggs will keep longer than uncooled fresh eggs; pickled eggs - boiled, peeled eggs dropped in a gallon of vinegar 

with a tablespoon of salt- will 

last longest. Dutch ovens can be used over the flames to bake bread or to 

cook soups or stews. Use a large 

skillet for fried foods. · Storing prepared foods without refrigeration may be difficult; try not to cook more than is 

needed right away. · Cleaning up may be more difficult, too; the water may be off. 

You might try getting water for 

cleaning from a creek - and 

boiling it 12 minutes to make it 

safe for washing dishes. 

Cast~iron skillets and woks 

may be cleaned without soap. 

Add a small amount of water and 

place it over an open flame. 

When the heat brings the wa- ter to a boil, remove the skillet, 

pour out the boiling water and 

scrub it out with a good abrasive 

pot scraper. Swish a small 

amount of water around the bottom of the skillet to remove any 

small residue and then dry well 

with a cloth or paper towel. 

Figure out ways to cook items on your grill that normally 

would be cooked indoors. For ex- ample: Bake fish, potatoes. on- ions, apples, or ev~n a whole 

chicken by wrapping the item 

completely in foil and placing it on the grill or· directly on the 

coals. 

Heat will be uneven, so turn 

food often with long-handled 

tongs and remember that cooking may take longer. A chicken, 

for example, might need an hour 

in an oven to bake. Add at least 

30 minutes if cooking outdoors. 

Overcooked food might not be as tasty- but remember, it may 

be much safer than undercooked food. 

12-1-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission of The Commercial Appeal 

Climatologist's 

predicted act of 

God aids. church 

By Tom Bailey Jr. 

The Commercial Appeal 

Insurance agents aren't the 

only ones . taking advantage of· 

the earthquake frenzy. The h:ul· 

labaloo over whether a quake 

will happen Monday is not lost on the church, either. ~ .. "You don't get preaks like this 

pften," Rev. Frank McRae of St. 

John's United Methodist Church 

said, chuckling. . · _<The sign outside St. John's on Peabody advertises the title of 

Sunday's sermon, "When Will It 

Happen?" 

.- Mr. McRae wants passersby to assume he's·going to preach on the earthquake. _ "But, of course, this is the first 

Sundayin Advent,:-Mr, McRae. 

said. 

"This is the coming of Christ. ... The Advent is not the advent of the earthquake, but there are some parallels." · The Advent season, the four 

Sundays before Christmas, is a time when many Christians prepate spriritually for Christmas. 

'It's not that the ministers are taking-- climatologist Iben 

Browning's projection for a ma~ 

jor quake seriously. . They are seizing an opportuni- tY- . -. It happens that the Biblical 

passage on which Mr. McRae and 

many other ministers have long 

been scheduled to base their 

Dec. 2 sermons seems to fit the 

·earthquake hubbub. · "But of that day or that hour 

no one knows, not even the an- gels in heaven, nor the Son, but 

only the Father," Jesus tells His 

disciples in Mark 13:32-37. "Take 

heed,. watch; for you do not 

kD.ow when the time will come ... " · Shirley Prince, associate minister of Mississippi Boulevard 

Christian Church in Whitehaven, said the church delivered its 

earthquake sermon Nov. 25. The 

title of the sermon was "Standing on'Shaky Ground." 

"Why wait until the last minute?" .Ms. Prince asked. · Rev, Jesse Garner, pastor of 

First Presbyterian Church on Poplar, said he plans to refer to 

the earthquake Sunday. 

"But in an ironic or jocular 

fashion ~ nothing serious, I'm 

sure," he said. . The sign in front of Crestview 

Baptist Church on Winchester 

states: "Preparing For The Big 

One? Are You Prepared For The 

Last One?" 

"We're-just using the uproar as an attention-getter on the sign," sai(i Rev. Clif Springer, pastor of 

Crestview. 

Not all churches are taking the projection so lightly. Win- ~)le_Ster __ Hei_ghJ.S - Christian 

-Church on Winchester is con- ducting a prayer vigil from noon Saturday·until the Sunday morn- .ing worship. 

"Because . of the anxiety and concern of so many people in our city anticipating the earth• 

quake, the members of the con- . gregation felt that our prayers 

should be foc.used on God, who 

will take· care.·of us," .states a · press release from the church. 

Rev. W. P~ Dixon, pastor of 

·Greater Lewis Missionary Baptist Church on North Manassas, 

says his church will talk about 

the projection, but he won't 

have a special message on it. 

"It is something the Lord said 

would happen but He didn't say 

when, where or how," Mr. Dixon 

said. · Rev. Charles H. Ryans, pastor 

of Salem Gilfield Baptist Church on Kimball Avenue, ~greed. 

"I think there is a possibility an earthquake could occur. However, I don't necessarily think 

there is a likelihood, not on (Browning's) · schedule," Mr. 

Ryans said. · 

Staff reporter Quintin Robinson contributed to this·story. 
146 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

12-1-92 

Press release from 

Contemporary 

Psychology 

Associates 

NEWS RELEASE 

(213) 487-7339 (213) 862-5158 (818) 905-0199 

L 0 S A N G E L E S, C A L I F 0 R N I A 

CONTACT: ROBERT R. BUTTERWORTH, PH.D. 

IN NEW MADRID VIA CABANA MOTEL (314) 748-5513 

PSYCHOLOGIST TO STUDY NEW MADRID QuAKE PREDICTION STRESS. 

A PSYCHOLOGIST WHO DEBUNKED THE NOSTRADAMUS EARTHQUAKE HOAX IN 1988 AND 

BECAME KNOWN AS THE, "NOSTRADAMUS BUSTER" IS IN NEW MADRID, MISSOURI TO 

STUDY REACTIONS TO WHAT THE EARTHQUAKE EXPERT CALLS, "EARTHQUAKE 

PREDICTION HOAX 11 _:_ THE SEQUEL". 

New Madrid, MO. (Dec. 1, 1990) -- "The Nostradamus prediction of a 

catastrophic earthquake in May of 1988, frightened a great number of 

individuals in Southern California. Many were affected psychologically. Earthquake trauma phone lines established to calm people were jammed much of the time with hundreds of anxious callers needing reassurance. 

As the May lOth prediction date drew near, people became preoccupied with fantasies of destruction, hypervigilant to any sudden noise or 

movement, afraid to sleep indoors with the most-jittery residents making 

a run on travel agents, real estate brokers and moving companies -- This 

erratic stress behavior exhibited in California could occur along the 

New Madrid Fault as the December 3, prediction date approaches." 

This according to California psychologist, Robert R. Butterworth Ph.D., who established the Nostradamus stress hot-line in Los Angeles and 

counseled anxious resi.dents who experienc~d psychological predictio. n 

S.Y111Ptoms as a result of the 1988 Cal1forn1a Nostradamus earthquake 

scare. 

A prediction that a massive earthquake could strike Missouri and 

neighboring states that run alon~ the New Madrid Fault has triggered this California psychologist to 1ssue a Psychological, "stress-alert" 

for that region of the country. 

Dr. Butterworth warns mental health professionals in the area of the 

New Madrid Fault to be on the alert for increased, quake prediction stress symptoms in the population. 

Earthquake stress symptoms include: 

Panic attacks, increased anxiety, depressive mood, feeling of sadness, gloom, dread and pessimism. Insomnia, increased irritability and nervousness, loss of 

concentration and productivity. Rise in rates of alcohol and drug use. Increase in domestic abuse and 

possible divorce rates. A growing preoccupation with earthquakes. 

".It's important for people not to joke tease or make light of tho~e 

suffering from these prediction symptoms -- Stress and anxiety will not 

diminish by dismissing fears or rejecting the validity of the 

predictions." Said Dr. Butterworth who also added, "Individuals who are 

the most afraid and anxious concerning earthquakes are those who are the 

least prepared and knowledgeable about them -- Lack of knowledge breeds 

panic and anxiety due to helplessness." 

Dr. Butterworth believes that scientists or seers who make frivolous 

earthquake predictions that are not based on hard data should be 

responsible for the emotional trauma inflicted. "Legal guidelines need 

to be established concerning damage awards for false predictions. If I 

yell 'fire' in a crowded theater and a stampede results, injuring peopie I can be ~rosecuted if there wasn't a fire -- Why should someone 

be able to yell earthquakeft in a crowded region and be immune to the 

disruption and anxiety that result." 

Psychologist Robert Butterworth Ph.D., is co-director in Los 

Angeles at Contemporary Psychology Associates, Inc., an established 

researcher in the field of psychology. 

Mailing Address: Post Office Drawer 764n • Los Angeles, California 90076 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 147 

Give him this: 12-2-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission of The Commercial Appeal Inventor made 

Earth stand still The Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium (CUSEC), which 

moved its headquarters to Memphis in April1989, has noted are- versal in public apathy, as welL 

CUSEC is distributing 100 earth- quake information packets daily 

and has doubled its staff to deal 

with calls from the public. 

By Tom Charlier The Commercial Appeal 

History will record that during the first week of December 

1990, an eccentric 72-year-old inventor with no formal training 

in earthquake science shook ·nerves in seven states with his 

dramatic vision of The Big One. And as the country hovers on the brink of recession and war, with deficits soaring and taxes 

rising, ·frightened . Memphians 

call authorities to ask if it is true 'lhat Reelfoot Lake· is ·bubbling a;nd hissing- and to ask what to 

da if a quake re\~ases __ lions ana t!gi.~rs at the zoo. w:hat, indeed, hath !ben 

Browning wrought? 

The occasion: a celestial ren- dezvous that today will bring a nearly full moon in line with the sun at a point unusually close to 

Earth. And as Browning figures 

it, that alignment means an even-money chance of a major 

quake along the New Madrid 

seismic zone by Wednesday. 

That's this neck of the woods. 

And as the heavens move and 

the clock ticks on Browning's projection, schools and homes are emptying and families ·are 

stockpiling supplies. The projection by the contra--_ versial New Mexico climatolO, 

gist clearly has brought the roll-. er coaster of public interest in 

earthquake- hazards to an alltime peak, authorities say_ But they add that whether it 

stays high or pl)lmmets ~f. as ex- pected, Dec. 5 passes without a tremor is open to debate. 

"We've been trying for 15 

years to get people to listen to 

this stuff. He did more in six 

months in getting the interest 

there," ·says Jeff Crenshaw, director of-the Memphis-Shelby 

County .. ,_ ~mergency Management Agency. 

Bu_t other officials see a major 

potential drawback. "I think overall, it's probably 

counterproductive. We know 

that fear is not a really good way 

to get people to prepare," said 

To in Mullins, public affairs di-· rector of the California Office of 

Emergency Services. Browning's claims that unusu- ally strong tidal forces are likely 

to trigger a quake in the North- ern Hemisphere during a fiveday period that began Saturday 

have been rejected by seismologists from across the nation. A 

quake could happen at any time, 

they say, adding that there is no 

known correlation with tides or any other way to pinpoint when. 

But scientifically merited or not, the projection has touched a nerve with the public. 

Crenshaw's agency now is taking 250 earthquake calls and 

making about 10 presentations on the subject each day .. Memphis State University's Center 

for Earthquake Research and In· 

formation averages about 150-

200 phone calls and three pre- sentations a day. 

As a result of the interest generated by the Browning projection, CUSEC is "about done" 

with the first task it had as- signed itself - informing the 

public of the regional earthquake hazara, executive_ <l!rector Harvey Ryland said. "There are very few adults 

The Danger Underfoot 

'(':..1,7 /"~~ ",... .o;•-r-- .... 

Although it has created a regional 

frenzy, lben Browning's projection 

that there is a 50-50 chance for an 

earthquake in the New Madrid fault 

zone in early December:has been 

rejected as scientifically unfounded 

.by most g~ologists, including the 

National Earthquake Prediction 

Evaluation Council. 

The amount of damage caused by an earthquake depends in large measure on the types of soil on 

which buildings are constructed. 

Soft clays and sand found along the Mississippi River 

and its tributaries readily transmit the seismic vibrations that· 

can undermine buildings. Because of its lack of 

cohesiveness it also is more likely to liquefy - the process in 

which the ground looses its stability during quakes and turns 

to virtual quicksand. 

Prepared through recent research by Memphis State 

University experts, the three maps at right show various ways a 

quake in the New Madrid fault zone could affect the 

Memphis area. Researchers emphasize that 

localized variations exist within each broad soil 

zone. 

Map 1 shows the force of shock waves, 

measured in units of gravity, that could hit Memphis 

from a 7.5 magnitude quake centered at Marked Tree, 

Ark., the closest point in the zone to the city. The map 

indicates that in the Meeman-Shelby Forest State 

Park area in the northwest part of Shelby County, 

the quake's energy would be 0.3 units of gravity, 

or nearly one-third the force of gravity. By the 

time they reached Collierville, in the southeast 

corner of the county, the waves would be less than half 

as strong. 

Map 2 shows how different soil types found 

throughout the county would likely transmit 

vibrations, with the darkest region being the most 

dangerous. 

Map 3 shows where the potential for liquefaction 

throughout the county would be highest during a 7.5-

magnitude quake in Marked Tree. The liquefaction 

threat would be reduced in less-powerful temblors. 

As shown by the maps, the riskiest place to 

build generally is along the Mississippi River, 

including a sliver of downtown. However, most of 

the county is underlain by good, stable soils. 

Source: Memphis State University 
148 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

12-2-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

(Continued) 

·who are not aware of the earthquake risk here in the Central 

United States," he said_ Interviews with residents 

throughout the New Madrid 

zone, which extends from south- ern Illinois to Marked Tree, Ark., and surrounding regions, tend 

to bear that out. "Suddenly, everybody is aware of the danger. We've never been as well informed before," said 

Elaine Van Horn, a resident of 

Houston Levee Cove near Collierville. Mr S. Van Horn and her neighbors have organized elaborate 

earthquake-preparation mea- sures - listing out-of-state con- tacts, stockpiling supplies and 

exchanging information. They 

each keep a bag containing tennis shoes, a flashlight and a quart of water nearby at all 

times. In Paragould, · Ark., Alice 

Stuart's family has been getting ready, too. "We're prepared. We've got our hot-water heater belted 

down, we've got food that you don't have to heat . .. " 

Even residents living far from areas likely to be damaged by a New Madrid quake are worried. 

Earthquake insurance has 

been selling fast as far away as 

Nebraska and Michigan. · In Port Gibson, Miss,, 250 miles 

from the southern end of the 

fault zone, schoolchildren have 

begun -regular earthquake 

drills. In northeastern Louisiana, business owners are reinforcing windows and residents are getting ready. "I don't think it's widespread, but ... I've heard of instances 

where people have been stockpiling groceries, canned goods, that stuff," said Carl Walk, city 

clerk in Tallulah, La., some 200 

miles south of Memphis. The reaction of some residents 

approaches panic. "I can't hardly breathe, it upsets me," said Terri Barton, a housewife in Kennett, Mo. "I 

didn't know we could even have 

big ones." 

Crenshaw said his agency has 

received calls from parents saying children have reverted to 

bed-wetting since the publicity 

began. Mental ,health officials 

report few additional anxiety 

calls resulting from the scare. "They are mostly clients who 

have fear of just about any type 

of calamity," said Judy Caldwell, 

director of operations at Southeast Mental Health ·Center on Winchester, which has fielded "five or six" quake-related calls. Local school officials, re- sponding to parents' fears, have 

canceled classes in at least 30 

districts in five states. Carl Bender, a physics profes- sor at Washington University in St. Louis, says such reactions are unwarranted- but explainable. "I think the reason people are scared is they see other people 

being scared," he said. While many residents and local officials take the Browning 

prediction seriously, others dismiss it. "I don't believe that people are really believing him, but since we alllive.on the fault we know 

for-sure that -there will be one (someday)," said Marsha James, who ·works with a diSastei"'pteparedness committee in Lake 

City, Ark. . 

In the Gates community of 

Lauderdale County, Tenn., Zona 

Childress isn't perturbed about 

Browning's prediction, either. "I try to ignore it as much as I can . .. ," she said. "If the Good 

Lord wants you, he's going to get 

you, regardless." 

The region's response to the 

Browning prediction is the fo- cus of studies by two universities. 

Researchers at the University 

of Colorado and the University 

of Delaware have been surveying residents to see how much 

they know about the prediction 

and to what lengths they're going to prepare. 

"There's no discernible medi- an," said Pam Showalter, a graduate student at the Colorado 

school's Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center. The center polled some 1,000 

residents in Marked Tree and 

Wynne, Ark., and East Prairie 

and New Madrid, Mo. Although Browning has specified faults in California and Japan as being at risk this week, too, nearly all the attention has 

been focused on the·New Madrid 

region. Mullins said the forecast 

in California has been little-pub- licized and largely ignored be- _cause "earthquakes aren't the 

mystery they are in some other 

parts of the country." 

Earthquake predictions have 

caused panics before, however. Lima, Peru, was convulsed by a 

false 1981 prediction made by 

two geologists, and seven years 

later a bogus forecast shook up some Los Angeles residents. "This kind of thing doesn't 

happen very often. . . . I think 

that's why so many people are studying it-we're just fascinat- ed," said Ms. Showalter. Researchers and authorities 

express concern that interest 

and preparedness could tail off 

dramatically after · this week. They note scientific projections 

that show the New Madrid re- gion faces at least a 40 percent 

chance of experiencing a significant quake in the next 15 years. Washington University's 

Bender said it is hard to get the 

public interested in those kinds 

of scientific predictions because 

they are complicated and heavily qualified. 

"Scientists generally make 

predictions that are much less 

interesting than anti-scientists 

(such as Browning)," he said. 

Despite the public interest, Bender sees only harm resulting 

from the projection. He said 

falsehoods should not be used to 

motivate people. "If you don't 

want your kids to smoke, you 

don't tell them their hands are going to fall off." 

Arch Johnston, director of the 

MSU center, agreed that little 

long-term good can come from 

the commotion. "It's the wrong message," he 

said. "The earthquake hazard 

here is a part of life . . .. It's a long-terl)l hazard, so dodging 

this day or that isn't going to 

change things." 

SCHOOL QUAKE CLOSINGS . . 

Numerous schools in the re- gion will close for up to a week 

in reaction to Iben Browning's 

earthquake projection. 

Some school boards felt students just needed to be at home 

that day. Others closed anticipating high absenteeism. Some deCided to shut down after polling 

the community. Schools closing are: 

TENNESSEE: 

Lake County, Monday 

Lauderdale County, Monday 

DYersburg, Monday 

MISSISSIPPI: 

Coahoma Junior College, Monday · · 

First PresbYterian Kindergarten in Greenwood, Monday and 

Tuesday 

-Grenada County, Monday 

Tougaloo College, Jackson; Monday-Friday 

ARKANSAS: 

Cross_ Count}>, Monday and Tues- day . .Earle, Monday and Tuesday 

East Arkansas Community Ceillege. Forrest City; MondayWednesday 

:East Poinsett, Monday and Tues- ·day. · _ ,Forrest City schools, MondayWednesday 

·Hughes, Monday and Tuesday 

;Marked Tree, Monday and Tues- _day; 

~t~~_I.I:; Monday-Wednesday Palestine-Wheatley, Monday- ~e~fii~ay _ ._- -

~~Monday and Tuesday SOuffi~MiS5issippi County, Mon- day~W'"ednesday · . esttdeDiphis and all other Crit- ~: County schools except Monday and Tuesday 

cirit"ieli, Monday and Tuesday 

A'ilT EaSV.Prairie, Monday and Tues- ___ - -

Gosnell, Monday 

Kennett, Nov. 30 and Monday and Tuesday 

Oak Ridge, Monday and Tuesday 

Senath-Hornersville, Monday and Tuesday 

KENTUCKY: 

Daviess County, Monday and 

Tuesday 

Hancock County, Monday .and 

Tuesday 

Hopkins County, Monday and 

Tuesday 

Livingston County, Monday and 

Tuesday 

McLean County, Monday and 

Tuesday . -

Muhlenberg County, Monday and Tuesday _ Ohio County, Monday and Tuesday • 

Owensboro and Owensboro 

Catholic, Monday and Tuesday 

Union County, Monday and 

Tuesday 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 149 

Animals 

seemingly 

have ESP 

for quakes 

By William Thomas 

The Commercial Appeal 

If your cat leaves home, your 

fish jumps out of its tank, your 

canary goes nuts and your dog 

barks at the wind, there's a 50-50 

chance you're about to get all 

shook up. 

Or so says the pet theory of 

earthquake predicting. 

It goes back thousands of years 

when people first noticed that 

animals, birds and fish act weird 

just before the big ones. And although scientists -pussyfoot 

around the SO<alled evidence, 

the theory is alive and well today among folk who live along 

the New Madrid faultline. 

And it could be a good thing, 

since climatologist lben Browning has predicted the Big One 

could hit the New Madrid zone sometime this week. 

Consider, for example, the 

strange experience of Jack 

Moore Jr., who lives in Sikeston, 

Mo., and keeps a small flock of 

chickens. As he was leaving for 

work o_ne morning a few weeks 

ago, Moore noticed that all eight 

of his pullets were lying on their 

sides as if playing statue. 

"At first, I thought they were dead " said Moore, who is in the 

carpet-cleaning business. 

"Chickens don't turn themselves upside down. In fact, if 

you lay them on the ground that 

way, they won't move." 

Moore was still puzzling over the mystery when a small trem- or shook the area. Now, he's con- vinced the birds knew it· was coming all along. And maybe the 

fish did, too. 

"I know two. people who keep 

tropical fish," he said, "and in 

both cases, fish jumped out of 

the tanks that day. One of the 

tanks had 12 fish in it, and when 

the owner came home they were all dead on the floor." 

Bizarre as that sounds, it is no stranger than the-stories of wild 

animal behavior that have been 

passed down as earthquake folklore for generations. Five days before the ancient 

Greek city of Helice was destroyed in 373 BC, for example, a historian reported rats, snakes, 

weasels, centipedes, worms and 

beetles taking the road out of 

town in droves. 

In inodern times, earthquake 

watchers have reporte«;t cows bellowing, flapping their ears and whipping their tails; dogs barking and racing around, 

small pigs biting each other, pigeons flying into the air and circling endlessly, bees becoming confused and swarming into 

-churches, catfish leaping out of 

the water like salinon and hibernating snakes awakening and 

crawling out of tlie ground to 

freeze to death in the snow. Then, there are the cats, who 

Quaketime 

Region Awaits The Big One; Some Find 

Time For Parties, A Movie, T~Shirts 

By Margaret Gillennan 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

"Earthquake" - the Charlton Heston-Ava Gardner version- is on the 

tube Sunday in St Louis. "Shake, Rattle and Roll" parties are in vogue. Tshirts boasting "I survived Dec. 3, 

1990, St Louis, Missouri" are being 

stamped ·and sold. 

It's the day before the day much of 

the public has been awaiting. dreading or just wants to be over. A forecast of an earthquake made 

by climatologist Iben Browning has ~ked the region, crazed consumers, 

scared schoolchildren, sparked new interest in disasters, outraged scientists and enlightened the Midwest to 

fears West Coasties face every day .. Even a comic strip in the San Francisco Chronicle, a knock-off of 

Doonesbury, has joked th8.t New -Madrid - the- tiny town -in- Missouri's 

Bootheel - could become the "next 

california," with nouvelle cuisine and 

stress-reduction· classes. 

Browning has forecast a 50-50 

chance of a quake measuring between 

6.5 and 7.5 on the Richter scale in the 

New Madrid Fault from Saturday 

through Wednesday. 

Browning's method of tidal predic- . tions has been disCredited by earthquake experts. 

A national panel of earthquake ex- perts found that Browning successfully predicted no other earthQuakes, despite such claims by him and his 

supporters. 

Seismologists say there's less than a 10 percent chance of any quake occur- ring over the next 15 years that would cause widespread damage anywhere in a sev~Q..:-ib:lte_ar_ea. __ _ 

Some St Louisans are finding the 

frenzy something to spoof. At the 

Westchester.- House nursing home in 

Chesterfield, the sUtff and J'eSldents were gearing up for a rock •n• roll 

party Monday· night, with bricks fot 

decorations and hard hats for favors 

12-2-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission of The Commercial Appeal 

are said to become so nervous before a major quake that they 

leave home and don't return un- til long after the danger has 

passed. Mother cats try to drag 

their kittens to safety. House 

cats try to get out the door. 

Abnormal cat behavior is so predictable that a geologist in 

San Francisco has used it to 

make 270 predictions during the 

past 15 years, with, he says, a 75 

percent success record. 

According to the 1991 Old 

Farmers Almanac, the geologist 

James Berkland watches the 

"lost pet" ads in the newspaper 

classified sections. When 25 cats 

and 60 dogs are advertised as missing, he becomes worried, measures the tides and consid- ers sounding a warning. 

Just for the record, the num- ber of missing dogs and cats in 

The Commercial Appeal want 

ads rose sharply during the last 

week in November. 

However, a spokesman at the 

Memphis Humane Society said 

animals always move more in 

cold weather- and that may be 

the explanation. 

On the other hand, maybe they 

know something we don't. 

"Cats show especially marked 

reactions during earthquakes," 

says Helmut Tributsch, author 

of a major earthquake study of 

animal behavior titled "When 

the Snakes Awake." 

Much of the study deals with 

the city of Haicheng in China, 

which supposedly watched its 

animals for signs of a coming 

earthquake- and evacuated the 

city shortly before it was destroyed in early 1975. Makes you 

think the folks in Tangshan 

ought to have paid attention; 

242,000 people died in a quake 

there the next year. 

And what do the scientists say 

about all this? 

"It's still an open question," 

says Dr. Peter Kopfer, zoologist 

at Duke University, who re- viewed the Tributsch book. "All 

the evidence is not in. There's no doubt that a host of physical changes occur preceding an earthquake which are within 

the range of animal senses. "Snakes, which have a keen olfactory sense, may be responding to the emission of gases. But some of these things are almost 

impossible to test." 

Jim Dorman, associate director of the Center for Earthquake 

Research and Information at 

Memphis State University, says 

animal behavior is "a valid field 

of earthquake-related phenomena." 

"There's no question that animals are very sensitive to seismic waves. They can feel move- ment we can't. Even so, the idea 

of organizing a great pig-watch 

network doesn't thrill me." 

12-2-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

and a theme song of "I Feel the Earth 

Move." · But others remained jittery. At 

Sam's Wholesale store in St Charles, 

''the hype about the earthquake" has 

chased away any hint of an economic 

recession. "It's helped us .to clear 

some items out," said Troy Dooley, 24, 

general manager of Sam's. 

"Sales are unbelieveable on bottled 

water, flashlights, aluminum foil, 

tarps, charcoal, lighter fuel...and we·r~ completely out of kerosene 

heater5:"-Dooley said Saturday. "We probably sold abo.ut 150 first 

aid kits·just this past week alone," he 

said. "canned meats are real big right 

O:ow. Believe it or not, they're buying a lot of whiskey, too." 

Other big sellers: radios that operate on batteries, fire extinguishers, 

which are selling at 100 to 125 a .day, 

and generators, with the most popular 

mo_del selling out_at $469.99. . - Meanwhile,-travel agents are-notic~ 

ing unusual trends. 

Jennifer cardwell, a TWA employee, said that more people .. are canceling flights· into St. Louis than out," · although she added that travelers 

don't generally give a r:eason for 

changes. More outbound flights are "flying full" than usual, said cardwell. 

But it was Dec. 1 as usual on Saturday for many St Louisans. 

Debbie Burkemper, 36, of St. 

Charles, was visiting Union Station 

with her three daughters and mother - and happy throngs of others who were enjoying the twinkling lights, 

Santa and carols. 

"We're all doing our Christmas 

shopping and not giving the earthquake a thought," Burkemper said. 

''They said it could be 10 years before or 50 years after. You can't sit at home 

and worry." 

Contrary to national press reports, 

Frank Viverito, a spokesperson for the 

Convention and Visitors Commission 

in St Louis, said Saturday there were no conventions canceled in· St Louis 

"that we had anything to· do with or that we know of.". 

The Associated Press contributed 

some information for this story. 
150 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

12-2-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch Reprin~ by permission 

Sonte Worry, 

Others Joke 

About Quake 

"Watch and now It wtll be here." 

Uke nearly everyone else living on the New 

Madrid fault line, Parker Is anxious and con- fused over Iben Browning's forecast' of a 5Q-50 

chance for a major earthquake during a five-day period that began Saturday. 

The scientific community scoffs at Browning's 

tidal-wave theory. But the publicity given his 

prediction causes Parker to wonder It she 

wouldn't be better off visiting her daughter in 

Springfield, Ill., for a few days. 

are the governor and legions of reporters descending on New Madrid and other Bootheel 

towns? 

Rumors- and there have been many- even have Dan Rather booked for Monday at the 

Cabana, New Madrid's only motel. The Cabana 

consists of trailer homes laid end to end. 

Parker has only to look at her front door to 

hear yet another voice coming from Mett Street, 

where the Rev. Sanford Berry Is broadcasting his 

"earthquake rapture" message from loudspeak- ers attached to his 1967 white Ford van. By Tom Uhlenbrock 

and William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff . 

NEW MADRID, Mo.- Mildred Parker packed 

her bags and loaded her car, then reconsidered 

and carried everything back Into the house. 

ICit's really got people stirred up In this town," 

said Parker; "And it hurts us; there's homes for 

sale and nobody's buying them." 

Her fears finally got the best of her, and Park- er trudged her things back out to her car and lett 

town. 

Berry, who also writes a column for three local 

newspapers, is preaching not to worry- God has 

heard the prayers. · · .. 

"I just really didn't want to go in the flrst 

place," she said. "Then different ones told me It's 

not going to be here, It's going to be somewhere 

else. 

Parker was getting mixed signals. First, 

Browning pinpoints the New Madrid fault, but 

reports then say Japan is more likely to get hit. 

If Browning can be dismissed as a quack, why 

"God has revealed to me, through other people, a prophecy that there Is not going to be an earthquake here this time," Berry said. "Even if 

there was an earthquake destined, thousands of 

people have been praying and God Is listening. 

"Some people think I'm a little wacko, but, the 

thing is, Mr. Browning does not know 

-I do not know- but I'm doing what 

in my heart I believe Jesus wants." 

COMMENTARY 

While some worry, others make 

light of the situation. A sign on a storefront on Main Street says: "Coming 

soon. New Madrid II, the Sequel." 

At Rosie's restaurant, the back bar 

features two special drinks - the 

"Earthquake" and the "Aftershock." 

Don't ask what's in them. 

Use Quake Scare As Learning Tool 

Canceling Classes Is No Way To Combat Ignorance 

By Paul Flemming 

Koshkonong, Mo., won't be having 

school on Monday. A front-page 

story in the West Plains Daily 

Quill, my paper of record down here In 

southern Missouri, announced the School 

Board's decision. On the basis of Iben 

Browning's well-publicized prediction of 

an earthquake on or about that day and 

the consequent concern 

of parents, classes are 

canceled. 

down, and I don't want to ridicule the 

decision. Oh, yes I do. 

But In the name of constructive ridi· 

cule, I have an alternate plan. Schools 

are In the business of imparting knowledge and developing the ability to use 

that knowledge. So let's seize upon this 

opportunity to teach the kids of Koshkonong and everywhere else In the Hysteria 

Zone a real-life lesson with the tools of 

"An early spring 

break," Superintendent 

Darrell Cook called the 

one-day leave of absence. 

What they're really taking 

leave of is their senses. Today they take the word 

of a climatologist from 

New Mexico. Tomorrow 

will they consult a cosmetologist from Ohio? I have 

to suppress the hope that 

an earthquake will strike 

on Thursday, after every-

•• ·.·~· 

one has returned to school 

confident of his or her 

safety. My Interest In this decision is not 

merely academic, though It Is decidedly 

that, in more ways than one. My wife 

teaches high school English in Koshkonong and. won't be going to work on Monday now. Instead she'll spend President's 

Day in the classroom come February. 

Koshkonong is not alone in taking this 

action. Other schools in Missouri and 

Arkansas, most of them closer to the 

New Madrid fault, also will be shutting 

education: knowledge, reason and truth. 

First, hold classes but make them voluntary. Those who wish to expressly ex- hibit their ignorance may stay home, 

supposedly to let the world know just 

how smart they are. Second, the day's 

curriculum should be dedicated to the 

study of earthquakes and the frenzy that 

has resulted from Browning's prediction. 

In science, students will learn about 

geology. The teacher will be careful to 

point out this discipline's difference 

from climatology. "Can Willard Scott 

predict earthquakes?" the science teach· er might ask. 

History classes will focus on Instances 

of mass hysteria in the past. Maybe they 

will listen to tapes of "The War of the 

Worlds," or the hearings of Sen. Joseph 

McCarthy.The zoology teacher will make 

lemmings the day's subject.In civics the 

students will debate what 

constitutes proper reasoni:Jg for public policy. 

Matistlcal analysis will 

be covered in math class. 

These students will learn 

why Insurance companies 

are so eager to take earthquake premiums from 

their customers.English 

students will read the 

works of Mark Twain, a 

man familiar with hoaxes. 

His characters Tom and 

Huck were both thought 

dead prematurely and the 

author himself was re- ported dead by The Associated Press while he was still quite a.ive. 

Perhaps a foot of snow on Sunday will 

make the whole issue moot. Maybe there 

really will be an earthquake and the 

school board members can congratulate 

themselves for great wisdom. 

Only if that snow falls In hell. 

Paul Flemming, West Plains, Mo., is a 

free-lance writer. 

All agree the prediction has put 

New Madrid in the national and international spotlight 

"We had a film· crew in here last 

week from Tokyo, Japan," said Virginia Howell, a guide at the New Madrid Historical Museum, which sits in tile shadow of the Mississippi River 

levee. 

: "Last week we had our biggest week 

ever," she said. "We had 891 visitors, 

where we'd normally get about 250." 

And quite a few of those visitors 

walk out with a T-shirt - $10 for 

adults and $7.50 for children- that 

says, "It's Our Fault" or "Visit Historic 

New Madrid (While It's Still Here)." 

A silent eXChange took place all 

weekend long near the museum, 

where a half-dozen television stations 

trom as far away as Dallas and -oklahoma City had parked their satellite 

vans. Locals in cars and pickups paraded 

by with Instamatics and video cam· eras, taking pictures of the news 

crews taking pictures of them . At the tourist information center on 

Interstate 55 just outside New Madrid, 

Reida Hall faces a barrage of questions from drivers who pull off when 

they see the city limits sign. 

"Are you ready? When's it going to 

happen? Are you scared? Where can 

we see the fault?" she recited. "~ just 

tell them they're standing on it" 

Browning has forecast a quake 

measuring between 6.5 and 7.5 on the 

Richter scale. The forecast covers the peri~ Saturday through Wednesday, 

but centers on Monday- the day Gov. 

John Ashcroft is scheduled to visit the 

area. Browning bases his forecast on an unusual alignment of the sun and the moon. He says abnormally strong tidal 

forces caused by the alignment can 

result in major earthquakes. 

A national panel of earthquake experts has called the for~t and his 
tidal theory "scientifically invalid." 

The panel also found that Browning 

has predicted no other earthquakes 

with success, despite his claims. 

Browning also forecast possible major 

quakes for Saturday through Wednesday near Tokyo and in northern, 

California. 

One sign in New Madrid reads: 

''This office will be closed on Monday, 

December 3, 1990. The Circus is com- ing to town." It's on the door to Lynn 

Bock's law office downtown. 

Bock is taking the day off Monday. 

"I'm going to make the most of it," he 

said. "There are more reporters here 

than there have been Since the Civil 

War." 

Most New Madrid residents are 

concerned about the possibility of a 

major quake sometime in the next several years, "but if we took it ·as 

seriously as a lot of media want us to, 

we'd probably worry ourselves to 

death," said Bock. 

Many reporters have been "trying 

to find the town idiot to talk to," Bock 

said. "They want to portray us as a 

bunch of hillbillies. and we don't appreciate that" 

Lori Bess, a waitress at Rosie's, said 

she's off Monday, but she's not leaving town. Bess has received several dozen 

calls from journalists since her picture appeared in People magazine. 

She will be home with her son, "answering the telephone,J guess," Bess 

said. . 

Lori Krebs, who works at the Show 

Biz Video store in New Madrid, said 

she and other downtown merchants 

will be at work Monday. 

"I know Dr. Browning is a very 

smart man, bu_t in this case I hope he's 

wrong," Krebs said. "It's been 179 

years years since the last big one, and 

I· hope- it's another 179 before the 

next" 

Farther north in the fault -zone, in 

cape Girardeau, some students at 

Southeast Missouri State University 

headed home while others planned 

earthquake parties. The university 

will remain open this week. 

Christine Fechter, a junior from 

Chesterfield, planned to stay in her 

house on campus and study for an 

earth science class scheduled to meet at 8 a.m. Monday. 

Fechter was in the class mapping 

earthquakes that have occurred 

around the world when a quake measuring 4.6 on the Richter scale shook 

the Bootheel on Sept 26. She and her roomates have stocked up on food, 

water, flashlights and other emergency supplies. 

"I don't know if it's going to happen" 

on ~onday, she said. "But I've taken 

precautions. Better safe than sorry." 

Lisa Benton, a junior from Decatur, 

Ill., went home for several days and 

plans to retuin to campus Tuesday 

night "I don't really believe it's going 

to happen," Benton said. 

Kimberly Presnell, a senior from 

Patton, Mo., is staying on campus. 

"The more I learn about his theory 

of tidal forces, the more I think it's· 

ridiculous," said "He's scaring people 

for an idiotic reason." 

APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 151 

12-2-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Continued) 

Press Shares Blame For Shaking Public Up 

By Michael Zimmerman 

When Nancy Reagan's frequent consultations with an 

astrologer became public, the nation's news media, 

rightfully, had a field day. That anyone, especially 

anyone with Mrs. Reagan's influence and power, should take 

seriously the absurd pseudoscience of astrology is an indictment of the failure of the scientific community to educate the 

public. As a scientist, I was very encouraged to see the 'media 

attack astrology for its lack of any scientific foundation. 

I am coming to suspect, however, that the media's stance on 

astrology was more a way to ridicule the Reagans than it was a 

principled stand against the dangers of pseudoscience. Consid· 

er that the media are on the wrong side of another scientific 

debate, one with even greater consequences than Mrs. Reaonly one side exists. In Browning's c~. like those of most 

pseudosciences, the situation is difficult because it Is all but 

impossible to find reputable experts to support Browning. 

Undaunted by lack of expertise, the media promote whomever 

they can find. In the present case, it is David Stewart, a 

geologist at Southeast Missouri State University. 

Stewart, however, has a bit of a checkered past on earthquake predictions. In 1974 he predicted a magnitude 6-plus 

quake for the Wilmingtonr N.C., area, and demanded that the 

government take precautionary steps. When the mainstream 

geologic community refused to take his prediction seriously, he 

resorted to paranormal means to refine his prediction, including flying over the area with a psychic. Needless to say, no 

quake occurred. But Stewart is getting a good deal of attention 

i~ the press these days. 

gan's personal beliefs. The me- r;:::::=,-.,..-,::===============--===~ Third, the media are far too 

willing to accept claims of previ· 

ous predictions. One way the me· 

dia justify taking Browning so seriously is his claim that he 

accurately predicted last year's 

quake in San Francisco. Nothing 

could be further from the truth, 

however. What he actually said, 

the week before the quake, was 

that on or about Oct. 16 "there will 

probably be several earthquakes 

around the world, Richter 6-plus, 

and there may be a volcano or 

two." Given that 6-plus quakes occur about once every three days 

or so, it would have been more 

newsworthy had Browning's prediction failed to be borne out. 

dia, and by that I mean reputable entities rather than the National Enquirer, have been 

paying enormous amounts of attention to Iben Browning, a business consultant with a Ph.D. in 

biology who claims that a huge, 

killer earthquake will occur 

along the New Madrid fault on 

Monday. The controversy is not 

over the New Madrid fault itself; 

it is known to be more active 

than California's San Andreas 

fault. The problem lies in the 

specificity of Browning's prediction. No scientific basis exists 

for it. And yet the media continue to promote what can only be 

l_· _, _____ _ . \ .... ~ .... ~~ 

called a doomsday scenario. A naive public, poorly educated in 

scientific matters, is overreacting. 

Exactly how are the media responsible? First, and most 

simply, they have paid attention to Browning's claims. Although he is not a geologist, Browning is pushing the notion that 

tidal strain is responsible for earthquakes. He goes on to argue 

that the alignment of the sun and the moon on Monday will be 

especially propitious for a major quake. 

But the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council 

concluded that "there does not appear to be a theoretical basis 

for Browning's prediction, and in fact, it appears theoretically 

implausible." The media might as well be promoting disaster 

predictions by Jeane Dixon and others of her ilk. (Interestingly, Browning's prediction that the U.S. government will col· 

lapse in 1992 after massive crop failures has not received 

nearly as much attention.) 

Second, the media seem to feel that journalistic integrity 

demands that both sides of all issues be presented, even when 

Missouri National Guard, 

Who stands to gain by promoting the disaster prediction? 

Clearly, this sort ,of sensationalistic journalism benefits the 

media, at least in the short run. And given that Browning was 

hawking a $99 video of himself making his pseudoscientific 

prediction, he is quite pleased with all of the publicity. 

Who stands to lose? The disruption of life in the three states 

adjoining the New Madrid fault should not be ignored. More 

strikingly, however, think about the message we are sending 

schoolchildren. A quack predicts a quake and we shut the 

schools down. Is this the nature of science in America today? 

Are we swiftly becoming a society in which various-pseudosci- ences (New Age mysticism, homeopathy, creation science, 

handwriting analysis, etc.) have acceptance equal to or greater 

than real science? 

I fear for the future of such an ignorant society. 

Michael Zimmerman is a professor of biology at Oberlin 

College in Oberlin, Ohio. 

State Workers Stage Earthquake Drill 

By Marinell Landa 

Post-Dispatch Special Correspondent 

JEFFERSON CITY - About 700 

National Guard troops, 1,000 state em- ployees and a new computer participated Saturday in a statewide earthquake response test 

In the exercise, called "Operation 

Show-Me Response 90," a make-be- ·neve earthquake hit the New Madrid 

Fault at 7 a.m. Saturday. The National 

Guard troops were called up, and a new $15,000 computer at the State 

Emergency Management Agency was put into service to pinpoint and assess "damage" reported by the troops. 

National Guard helicopter and 

fighter pilots were dispatched for aerial reconnaissance and rescue missions in southern and southeastern 

Missouri; radio operators relayed information; and administrators gave 

orders. 

The exercise is continuing Sunday 

with responses to the purported 

damage. 

The operation is the state's fifth an- nual disaster exercise, and officials said it was only a coincidence that it 

was taking place the same weekend 

that climatologist lben Browning forecast a possible earthquake. 

This year's operation is the most elaborate, said Richard Rice, director 

of Department of Public Safety. ·The 

department coordinated the drill. 

In a real disaster, about 12,000 National Guard troops would be available, said Maj. Ken MacNevin. 

The purpose of the drill is to identify weak points, MacNevin said. · 

. "You don't purposely try to trip people up, but you do things that will test 

their ability to plan and react," he 

said. 
152 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EAR1HQUAKE 

12-2-90 devastation of last October's quake in 

northern California 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

All these factors combined to begin 

and feed a public frenzy over the possibility of an earthquake. Initial re- ports stirred ,PUblic concern, which 

turned into public reaction as cover- age of the dispute continued. Concern 

became reaction. 

ERIC MINK 

Falling For Earthquake Frenzy 

The media reported public reac- tion. Doubts. abOut. the credibility. of 

Browning's statements - brief dis· 

claimers like, "Reputable scientists 

say Browning's theories have no basis 

In fact" - got lost In the middle of 

stories about school and business closings. runs on survival supplies and the 

like. Coverage of public reaction fueled heightened public concern· and' 

more reaction..$tatlons, citing Intense: 

public concern over the Issue, intensi-' 

fied their coverage. · 

I

F YOU'RE READING THIS, we are at least two-fifths of the way toward 

confirming the foolishness of nearly 

six months of earthquake hysteria. 

The news media have been major 

players In fueling that hysteria since 

!ben Browning's "prediction" broke 

into the public consciousness on June 

19, and television has been at the forefront, with Its built-in tendency to leave viewers with impressions rather 

than information. 

The television networks have 

played their part, to be sure. All the 

networks, for example, have offered 

occasional news reports of varying 

quality on the likelihood of a quake 

somewhere on the New Madrid fault, 

and the entertainment divisions have 

chipped in more than their share as well. 

NBC's "Unsolved Mysteries" - a show whose presentation style tends to undercut whatever_value-itS-factuaJ content may possess - came to the 

Midwest to slap together an earthquake segment. ABC's "Good Morning 

America" offered a one-on-one Interview between Browning and a particularly fawning science correspondent. 

CBS and ABC both did reports for their 

respective evening news programs. 

And Channel S's insistence on carrying NBC's "The Big One: ·The 

Great Los Angeles Earthquake" - a gratuitously violent and dramatically 

dishonest fictional miniseries - ex- ploited local fears and, in the process, 

exacerbated them. 

Channel 5 also was early to take 

advantage of the preparedness dodge, 

in which stations made hay (and 

hyped ratings) off the rising hysteria 

by giving people genuinely useful Information on preparing for disasters. 

It pre-empted Its network in prime 

time in mid-October for a one-hour 

syndicated special, appropriately 

pumped up with dramatic elements, 

in which host Robert Conrad gave all sorts of tips on what to do when dlsas· ter strikes. 

Channel 4, meanwhile, had meteor- ologist Mike Nelson emcee a 30-mln- ute special, also in prime time, about 

earthquake- preparations. Channel 9 

did Its own half-hour show and bas 

since been marketing it on videocas- sette through a local grocery chain. 

Channel 2 put together a multipart news series In which reporter Donn 

Johnson offered a mixt\H'e of local 

earthquake history and current events as well a5 some safety tips. 

Channel 5 had meteorologist Bob 

Richards do a multipart series debunking the Browning "prediction,'' 

although the station cynically timed it 

to coincide with the broadcast of 

NBCs "The Big One." 

As Dec. 3 bas approached, activity 

has intensified. Just last week, Channel 4 sent reporter-anchor Russ 

Mitchell south along the New Madrid 

fault for live reports and some wellcrafted taped features each night 

from Memphis, New Madrid and even Marked-Tree, A-rk. Channel-5 shipped 

reporter Mike OwenS out on -a sfmilat 

assignment. 

from the vicious earthquake-reporting cycle that formed around this sto- ry. 

Browning's initial "prediction" was unquestionably newsworthy and, 

therefore, bad to be reported. Reac· 

tion to It and against it by reputable 

And just a few days ago, Channel 2 

paid a little less than $5,000 for the 

purchase and installation of a helical 

drum recorder, an Instrument con- nected by telephone lines through the 

St. Louis Science Center to one of the 

60 drum recorders at St. Louis University's Geophysical Observatory. Those 

recorders are connected, In turn, to seismographs scattered throughout 

the Midwest. 

The truth is that, except for Channel 

S's poor judgment in carrying "The 

Big One," even the best of intentions 

would not have freed local stations 

scientists, therefore, also had to be 

reported. , 

There were other complications: 

The fact that an earthquake on the 

New Madrid fault Is bound to occur sometime made it Impossible for au- thorities to dismiss the notion entirely, no matter how goofy Browning's 

methods were. And then there were those fresh memories and emotions-. 

which stations were only too eager to resurrect via file footage - of the 

If there is any lesson at all to be 

learned from all this, It may be that 

the media need to be more cautious 

about conferring the status of "expert" on individuals. As this episode 

has illustrated all too vividly, once the 

story is out of the bottle, the media 

have little power to control it, much 

less contain it. What we've seen at work here is the equivalent of yelling, 

"Earthquake!" In a crowded fault 

zone. 

More Funds For Seismograph Networks 

By Arch C. Johpston 

The Midwest is supposed to be jolt~d 

Sunday or Monday by a major 

earthquake, according to a prediction that has been rejected by the great 

majority of earthquake scientists. 

As one who has studied earthquakes 

for 17 years,-I certainly share that skepticiSm. A seriouS earthquake will occur eventually along the New Madrid fault 

system in Missouri, but we cannot predict exactly when. 

Nonetheless, whether the quake 

strikes Sunday, next month or in future 

decades, what Americans in the Midwest - and throughout the country - should 

be concerned about is the ability of scientists to monitor and understand seismic conditions. The regional seismograph networks needed to accompl~b 

this are in crisis, facing technological 

obsolescence or outright closure. 

About 50 organizations throughout the 

United States operate networks that 

comprise 1,500 seismograph stations. 

The networks monitor everything from 

the Kilauea volcano in Hawaii and last 

year's Bay Area quake to seismic condi· 

lions in the Midwest and East. Although 

seismic activity in the United States is 

highest on the West Coast, 39 states are located at least partially in moderate- to high-risk zones. R:egional networks peer into the earth to observe and interpret this seismic ac- tivity. Just as CAT scans provide sur- geons with three-dimensional images of 

the human body, so do the closely spaced sensors of regional networks provide detailed images of the earth's interior. 

Earthquake prediction remains inex- act. But in the two decades since most of 

them began operation, regional net- works have produced data that are es- sential not only for earthquake monitor~ 

ing, but also for the safe siting and design 

of bridges, dams, nuclear reactors and 

. 'I 

other structures. Nonetheless, the net- works face serious funding problems. 

Most have obsolete equipment, inadequate computers and t~ few personnel. 

Even worse, many of the networks could 

be eliminated by a plan of the u.~Geologi~urvey and the Nuclear Regulatory COmmission to establish about 60 

modern seismograph stations in the cen- tral and eastern United States. The new stations would be of high quality but they are too few and widely spaced to dupli- cate the output of the regional networks. 

The dense coverage provided by regional networks is irreplaceable. 

Two examples illustrate the impor- tance of regional systems. On Oct 1, 

1987, a moderate earthquake occurred 

In Los Angeles, causing three fatalities 

and more than $350 million in damage .. The extensive system of sensors around 

the area enabled scientists to pinpoint 

the quake quickly and to identify a previously unknown fault Prompt transmission of such Information can guide sal· 

vage and rescue operations. 

By contrast, another earthquake oc- curred in northeastern Ohio on Jan. 31, 

1986. Experts suspected this one was triggered .by more than 260 million gallons of fluid that a waste-disposal company baa injected into- a deep well over several years. But their seismic instru· 

ments were toQ sparsely spaced to con- fum this. Nor was it clear how the earth· 

quake affected the safety of a nearby 

nuclear power plant As a consequence, 

disputes about both the waste-disposal 

facility and the reactor continue. 

So regional networks are irreplaceable. Yet. under the new system, they 

will remain static at best in the West and 

will largely disappear in the East 

This is not to say that the proposed 

system· makes no sense; the modern new stations are welcome. But whafs needed 

is a more rational system that combines 

them with the existing regional net- works. This could be accomplished with a $2 rilillion annual increase in the cur- rent budget and a one-time ~t;apital in- vestment of $15 million, spread over five 

years. That is a small price considering 

the potential savings in lives and property and the acquisition of knowledge. 

Regardless of when an earthquake 

strikes, all Americans have good reason to worry about the demise of regional 

monitoring networks. We need to keep our electronic ears to the ground. Seismic networks are not the.only means to understanding and eventually predicting 

earthquakes, but they are an indispensable component. 

Arch C Johnston is a professor of geophysics and director of the Center lor 

Earthquake Research and information 

at Memphis State University. 
Siren Test Canceled; 

Quake Fear Cited -

Sl Louis and Sl Louis County have 

canceled their monthly siren tests 

scheduled for Monday. 

Offictals believe that sounding the 

sirens might lead the public to assume an earthquake was occurring. 

APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 153 

Climatologist Iben Browning has 

foreCa.st a SQ-50 chance of a significant earthquake along the New Madrid Fault in _southeast Missouri 

around Monday. Scientists have dis· 

counted the prediction. 

The sirens, intended to signal bad 

weather, are tested at 11 a.m. on the 

first Monday of every month. The 

tests are canceled during threatening weather 

12-2-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

12-3-90 

Blytheville (Ark.) Courier News 

Reprinted by permission 

of the Associated Press 

Drills, exodus highlight Quake Watch '90 

-MARKED TREE, Ark. (AP) -

':fhe earth stood still Sunday, as lisual. The only thing moving was Ole stream of jumpy residents 

:fjeeing in fear of an earthquake. ·~New Mexico scientist lben 

Browning projected a 50-50 chance of a major temblor along the New 

Madrid fault for the five days that 

began Saturday. The fault's 

southern end is under this town of 

about 3,200 people. It runs nor- -theast to Cairo, m. . Browning, 72, bases his theory on the gravitational pull of the sun and nioon, which he says will' be 

particularly strong ·during the 

period.' -

On the basis of that, dozens of 

people have packed their things 

and left town. 

Scientists have scoffed at his . projection. But these same scienIistS . say --an earthquake is likely 

someday. 

So even skeptical residents, like 

convenience store cashier Rheba 

Womack, aren't taking any 

chances. · 

"If this doesn't happen, I don't 

want to hear anything else about 

earthquakes," Mrs. Womacksaid. 

A few hours later, on Saturday 

night, Mrs. Womack and.her busband, Scott; left town, joining the 

temporary migration. · Those who stayed prayed. 

· "Bless all of us, oh Father, that are upset about the earthquake," 

·said Ira Whitfield when he opened 

Sunday school at St. John Missionary Baptist Church. 

Church Deacon Sterling Ivy said 

he had expected the crowd to be 

smaller than usual. It was, what 

with some people suddenly out of 

town and others afraid to leave 

their houses. 

The same concern has closed 

schools in parts of Tennessee, 

Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky and 

Illinois for a few days early this 

week. 

Judy Byrd of Evansville, Ind., 

isn't waiting for local school administrators to decide. Though 

she said she doesn't believe ear- thquakes · can be projected, her 

11-year-old son won't be in school 

Monday. · 

"He asked me if he could stay 

home," Mrs. Byrd said "At this 

age, they really worry about ev.:. 

erything. War. An earthquake. 

Water. The environment. I flgured 

if he really was that worried about 

it, it should be up to him.'' 

Other people were looking for a more precise warning. 

·_In Illinois' St. Clair County, residentS were watching cats, dogs 

and cows for signs of nervousness. "If we notice any exceptional 

behavior, we will not hold school 

Monday,'' said Superintendent 

Bill Gullick of the county's 

Marissa Community Unit Scltool 

District 40. 

The Chinese have been using 

that method to anticipate earthquakes for more than 1,000 years, 

Gullick said. · 

Some people here have chosen 

to stay put. What they're afraid of, 

they say, is worse than any earthquake: looters and bad publicity 

for the town. 

-Police ·Officer Jay Woods said 

looting hasn't been a problem, 

especially with a lot of people 

gone. 

"I stopped a lady for speeding 

last night, and she said, 'Officer, 

I'm just in a hurry to get through 

Marked Tree."' 

·Woods couldn't bring himself to 

write her a ticket, he said. 

While residents wrestled with 

their anxieties about whether to 

stay or go, emergency experts in 

Arkansas were busy Sunday planning for an earthquake they could 

believe in. 

In an earthquake disaster drill 

planned l9ng before Browning's 

projection, officials were assess- ing an imaginary toll of death and 

destruction from a hypothetical 

earthquake. On paper, the quake 

laid waste to much of the nor- .tb~t~m partQtth~sta~_,__ 

The drill, involving the Arkan- sas National Guard and other 

state and federal agencies, was based-on a worst-case scenario of an earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale. 

The Richter scale is a gauge _of 

the energy released by an earthquake, as measured by ground 

motio.n recorded on a seismograph . The make-believe quake hit 

Friclay. By Sunday, according to 

the drill's script, the toll in eastern 

Arkansas had reached 4,950 dead, 

25,097 seriously injured and 98,020 

left homeless. 

"Realistically we would still be 

in a search and rescue mode," 

said Gary Talley of the Arkansas 

Office of Emergency Services, 

which coordinated the drill. 

Browning on the fringe 

centers of the brains of whales, he 

could. guide the animals wherever he 

wanted. The idea was to strap on hydrogen'bombs and send the nuke-bearing whales into the· harbors of Soviet 

port cities:The.Sandia Natio~al Labo.ratory near Albuquerque supp6rted th_is 

effort. Whale trai~ing can be difficult 

in the New Mexico desert, so Browning started . with donkeys. A,sses with 

Browning's electrodes in their skulls 

were. reportedly a comnion: sight on a 

special track at the.toJ>:secret facility. 

12-3-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission, 

The New Republic, Inc., 1990 

such projects were "much in favor" 

with Sandia's science administrators. 

By Robert Hazell 

D R. lben Browning is.now famous, ., at least among frightened Missourians, for his prediction that a massive earthquake will: strike southe~tern Missouri on Dec. 3.-What isn't genenilly known is that this is only the 

most recent' of many dubious ·theories 

offered by BrowJling i~ a}ong ~d varied career on the fringes of science. - In the early 1960s Browning believed 

that· by implanting remote-controlled· 

electrOdes in-·the pain arid pleasure 

D(. Robert Park of the Uhiversity of 

Maryland, who headed · the surface 

physics ~vision at. Sandia then, says 

Neither Park nor anyone else I spoke 

with knows whether Bro:wnhtg moved 

on_to whale_work. (Browning_ did not 

return my calls.) But he latet: became a 

paid consultant for NASA, and as the 

agency was beginning to prepare. for 

the 1969 Apollo landing, he concluded 

that the moon was covered with a layer 

of dust so thick that neither human~ccupied nor robot spacecr~ft could pos- sibly land on it. -

ThiS was· excerpted from an article 

in The New Republic by Robert Bazell, 

science correspondent for NBC News. . The New Republic.: 

United Feature Syndicate 
154 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTIIQUAKE 

12-3-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission of The Commercial Appeal 

When going 

gets shaky, 

city goes 

shopping 

By Barbara A. Burch 

The Commercial Appeal 

As of late Sunday night, 

George Bush was still president, 

American troops were still in 

Saudi Arabia, Elvis Presley was still dead and the earthquake 

projected by a New Mexico eli· 

matologist still hadn't occurred. 

Things seemed normal in 

Memphis Sunday, although people were still stocking up on disaster survival supplies in re- sponse to Dr. lben Browning's 

prediction that high tides would 

trigger an earthquake today, give or take 48 hours. _ · _ Earth ~dentists, who acknowledge there is .a threat of a major 

earthquake on the New Madrid 

fault in the next SO years, have 

scoffed at his theory, a1;1d say ~here is no way to predict the ex- act date of an earthquake. . 

.p;tas shoppers. 1 : .,At Raleigh Springs Mall, La- verne Chunn of Frayser and her. 

.d,aughter, Marilyn Wright of 

;Midtown, took a break from 

Shopping outside Goldsmith's. , cMrs. Wright said she never C9,nsidered canceling her shopP,ing trip with her mother ·be- ~ause of the earthquake scare. · But Mrs. Chunn said, "I 

thought Friday I might not (go), 

but I decided I had too much to 

qo. I had to get out." ·· She said she and her husband 

stocked up on survival supplies, ~t;lc~u~in~ water, ;flashlights, a ;t.ad1o, af1rst aid ltit andloocL_ ·~-~Both she and Mrs. Wrightsaid 

ey planned to be· at. work to- . y. Mrs. Chunn works at Meth- ~ist Hospital, Mrs. Wright at 

F£deral Express. · _, · · J. "You have t.o go on with your 

,liYes," Mrs. Chunn said, adding,, ;;;did practice getting under my 'desk Friday." -~ ,:Just down the street from the 

mall, Danny Colley and his 

J).tother, Wayne Colley, were "Selling · what was left of their ~arthquake T-shirts and sweat-

'Shirts. 

As of Sunday afternoon, they 

;}Uld sold 6,036 shirts - 4,031 to 

·people who said they-· were 

staying in town, and 2,005 to people who said they were leaving.- ~ ~"'It's been great the last two 

:days," Danny Colley said Sunday. "People are buying them to wear to work tomorrow." · Area residents were still stocking up on earthquake survival 

supplies at Central Hardware at 

4400 Summer, said assistant 

manager Keith Speer. However, 

he said the activity seemed a little slower Sunday than it was in 

the .past two or three weeks. 

·Several times, the store has 

had to restock metal strapping 

tape (for securing water 

heaters), wrenches (for turning 

off gas and water) and a tool that can be used for turningoff both 

gas and water and for other sur· vival purposes. 

"Anything you can tie down a house with, they're ·buying," 

Speer said. The store stocked! 

5,000 rolls of strapping tape and 

had about 250 left Sunday. The 

store also has sold 750 to 1,000 

fire extinguishers, he said. · At the Seessel's store at 3545 

Austin Peay Highway, there was a noticeable gap on the shelves 

where the Spam and the Vienna 

sausages used to be. 

"This was stocked when I left 

last night," said Cindy Luttrall, 

floor manager of the store. 

The store has sold its supply of 

the multipurpose quake survival 

tools, and on Wednesday and 

Thursday did a booming busi- ness in canned goods, b<>ttled 

water, dried milk and crackers. . , Rev. FrankL. McRae, pastor of 

Sf. John's .United Methodist 

Church, admitted to 200 or so people attending services Sunday that he "caved in to peer 

pressure" and bought a superduper flashlight, a crescent 

wrench to cut off his gas and a chain to attach to the meter. He 

said he also climbed into his attic to tie down his water heater. . "Tomorrow is the day," Mr. 

McRae said. "One man's predic- tion has sent panic and precaution through our seven states. . · ~ . The people are frightened. 

Today, all over this region of the 

New Madrid fault, pulpits will be 

ringing with words of confidence and caution." 

Mr. McRae used the interest in 

earthquake preparedness to re- mind people of another coming 

event, Christmas. 

Sunday was the first Sunday in 

Advent, a time when Christians. 

prepare for Christmas. 

He drew a parallel between 

the· coming of Christ and the 

eventual earthquake expected 

in the region to show the need to 

be prepared for both. . "It is good to be prepared," he 

said. "The coming of God is 

something like an earthquake." 

The bottom line, of course, is 

that nobody knows when either 

will occur. 

Staff reporter Tom Charlier 

contributed to this story. 

While the Center for Earthquake Information and Research reported no unusual seismic activity, the center's seismographs did record two quakes early Sunday. 

One, measuring 2.0 on the 

Richter- scale of earthquake 

magnitude, occurred at 3:32 a.m. It was centered in the Ozark 

Mo.untains in Arkansas, not in 

the New Madrid fault zone. The 

other,· at "5 something," oc- curred at about 9:45a.m. in some distant location, possibly Mexico or South America, center director Arch Johnston said. 

Quake or not, some firms 

give priority to readiness 

The center received dozens of 

calls Sunday, some plaintive and some bizarre. Somewhere in 

Memphis, a woman is going to 

bed wearing a hard hat-just in case of you-know-what. She obligingly . called the earthquake 

center to let them know. 

While the Earth stayed quiet 

here, Memphis was by no means deserted. Revelers at the P&H 

Cafe at 1532 Madison had an .Earthquake Eve party that drew· 

international attention. Waitress Lisa Messer, niece of owner Wanda Wilson, was interviewed 

live by a Tokyo radio station 

Sunday afternoon. : It was the second time in a 'week that. Ms. Messer has been 

interviewed by a foreign radio 

station. She was interviewed by 

the British Broadcasting Co. on ~riday. . , Elsewhere in Memphis, stores ~umbled with crowds of ChristBy Roland Klose · The Commercial Appeal 

Even if Iben Browning's earthquake prediction were to come true, several major Memphis 

businesses say· they have plans 

to get back to work as soon as P,Ossible after the shaking stopped. 

That's because some firms 

didn't _need BroWning's tidal 

theories to convince them of the 

need to develop plans to cope 

with a major disaster. The New 

Madrid fault hasn't been a secret 

for well over a century. And the 

possibility of other disasters 

that could face everyone -from 

fires to floods to power outages - has had some firms on their 

toes for a long time. 

An informal· survey suggests 

that companies ranging from 

banks to trucking firms to manu- facturers have developed emer- gency plans that would allow 

them to resume some functions 

within days of a major quake or other cataclysm. 

Yet many others still have a 

Although it has created a regional 

frenzy, lben Browr:~ing's projection 

that there is a so-so chance for an 

earthquake in the New Madrid fault 

zone in early December has been 

rejected as scientifically unfounded 

by most geologists, includin~ the 

National Earthquake Prediction 

Evaluation Council. · 

long way to go. And just how se- verely the community's most 

critical services are damagedmainly, power, water-,.communica:tions and transportation -- will go a long way to determining how fast anyone can get back on their feet and on the job. 

When and if the big one comes, restoring service at local 

medical facilities will be a top 

priority for both South Central 

Bell and Memphis Light, Gas & 

Water Division, spokesmen say. 

"We're looking at trying to re- store power for lifesaving and 

life support, . and this would 

translate into hospitals and wa- ter pumping stations," said Manuel Peters, LG&W assistant man- ager of systems operations. 

LG&W's power is supplied en- tirely by the Tennessee Valley 

Authority, which operates the 

Allen Steam Plant in Memphis 

and also transmits power to area bulk power substations. 

TV A covers a seven-state re- gion in the Southeast, and a quake is unlikely to disrupt the 

entire system. But the Memphis 

substations are vulnerable to an earthquake, said Peters. LG&W 

has started tying down and re.inforcing . critical transformers 

that carry TV A power into Memphis. - Restoring air' transportation 

also would be a priority. 

"The airport is one of $e few 

major agencies of the city which, by regulation and policy, 

has an ongoing disaster preparPiease see PLANS 
From Page A1 

Plans 

edness program," said Larry 

Cox, president of the Memphis 

and Shelby County Airport Authority. 

The plans cover a range of pos- sibilities-- crashes, tornadoes, 

fires and bombs. But Cox hastens to add: "We don't believe 

any of the rumor of the earthquake (and) we're not taking 

any special extra precautions." 

Cox points out damage to airports in Los Angeles and San 

Francisco, cities both hit by 

quakes, was minimal. 

"We're more concerned about 

the national economy and the 

price of jet fuel."' 

Other businesses also have 

e-mergency plans to get off the 

ground. , Even if their local facUities are wrecked, officials with 

Union Planters Corp. could tell a customer her bank balance, 

Morgan Keegan & Co. could exe- cute a trade and The Commercial Appeal would publish. Other 

large companies - like Federal 

Express Corp.-say they're prepared to quickly divert their 

operations outside of Memphis. 

Yet more businesses - espe- cially those that would provide 

essential recovery services - may need to assess their operations and prepare plans to cope 

with a large disaster. 

"We're not fully prepared," ac- knowledges Donald Batchelor, 

chairman of the Business Emergency Preparedness Council, an organization set. up this year to 

promote coordinated disaster 

planning. "Overall, what we lack 

is years of this community focusing on this problem with the en- ergy and commitment we need." 

Batchelor, who serves as risk 

manager for Union Planters 

Corp., said the October 1989 San 

Francisco . quake spurred local 

firms to improve coordination 

of business restoration plans. In 

San Francisco, life safety and 

life support issues were addressed immediately, but Batchelor said, "once those were handled, businesses were left in 

the dark." 

UP started to develop its own contingency plans months before the San Francisco quake. 

"We began looking for re- sources and we couldn't find 

any," Batchelor said. 

The Business Emergency Preparedness Council now counts 

about 100 local members, Batchelor said. "Several members 

of our organization have started 

from zero and now have a 99 perAPPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 155 

cent complete plan. There are other businesses who are just 

starting to ask, 'What do I do to 

write a plan?'" 

Memphis-based AutoZone Inc. 

is one of the leaders when it comes to putting together a com- prehensive plan. 

"We started formalizing a written· document a year and 

half ago," said John Geelan, AutoZone director of risk management. "It was part of our com- pany's philosophy to be able to 

take care of our customers." 

The company sells auto parts, car batteries, gas cans and flashlights- items in peak demand 

after a disaster. 

AutoZone, which has 1,500 em- ployees in Memphis, also has tak- en steps to improve safety at its 

local operations, including fastening filing cabinets together and lowering book shelf heights 

to 6 feet. 

"Some companies have been more aggressive than others. 

The key to any type of plan like 

this is to have top management 

support and . to commit the re- sources," said Geelan. 

The Memphis and Shelby 

County Emergency . Management Agency has been encour- aging area businesses to share 

their disaster plans with the 

agency. 

"We'd like a copy of their plan so we can see what they will do," 

said Don Wood, a planning o~­

ficer for the agency. 

"Our feeling is that busineSS' 

es, especially food stores and 

banks, are a vital part of a recov- ery. We'll have to get those back 

in business as quickly as possible. 

"Obviously, we want to know 

the plan for a chain of food 

stores. In terms of your general 

run-of-the-mill . business, we'd 

consider it a courtesy." 

Oh yes - the newspaper the 

Union Army couldn't close also 

plans to provide uninterrupted 

coverage in the event of a disaster, said Jim Hamilton, director 

of operations of Memphis Publishing Co., which publishes The 

Commercial Appeal. 

The newspaper's building, 

constructed in the late 1970s, 

does not h'ave seismic design. 

"We're assuming if this building 

is totally destroyed, most buildings in Memphis also would be." 

But the newspaper already has 

agreements with other publishers within a 200-mile radius 

of Memphis to set type and print 

newspapers, Hamilton said. 

Alternative printing sites 

would be needed even if the 

newspaper building is not structurally damaged, but electrical 

service and water are lost. Electricity runs the computers and 

presses. Water is critical to 

12-3-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

(Continued) 

printing and setting type and 

also is used to cool the newspaper's computer system. 

Structural damage caused by a large quake could rupture tanks 

and pipes, causing fires and the 

release of toxic chemicals. 

Manufacturers · of chemicals 

and companies that deal with 

hazardous materials have been 

part of a required federal and 

state contingency plan system 

for more than two years. 

Most large manufacturers em- phasize their plans address a wide range of possibilities, not 

just earthquakes. 

"Earthquakes do occur," said 

Neil O'Brien, manager of external affairs-for Procter & Gamble 

Cellulose Co., which operates a cotton linter pulp producing 

plant in Memphis. "We. don't believe that a specific time for an earthquake can be predicted 

with any accuracy." 

Procter & Gamble Ce~lulose is 

one of about 10 Shelby County manufacturers that participate 

.in the Community Awareness 

and Emergency Response ·plan 

with local emergency services. 

"Our job is to make sure the industries and government are prepared for any type of chemical emergency," said Joe Marshall, Procter & Gamble Cellulose environmental manager. 

Marshall said the companies 

plan a communitywide drill 

next spring. Mother Nature, of course, may 

have the final word. Bob Alexander, vice president of refining 

at MAPCO Petroleum Inc., said 

without knowing the impact of an earthquake on the local refinery, it's difficult to predict the 

level of response that would be 

needed. 

"We're sort of at a loss to deal 

with the question of an earthquake," said Alexander. 

12-3-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Quake Forecast Warranted 

More Scrutiny, Panel Told 

By Andre Jackson a five-day period that began saturday. 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff His forecast has been widely discountBoth the news media and scientists ed by scientists, and earthquake; ex- should have taken a closer look at perts have found tha~ Browning has 

Iben Browning's prediction of an successfully predicted no other earthearthquake along the New Madrid quakes, despite claims by him and his 

Fault, according to journalists and supporters. . 

guests who took part in a discussion Douglas Wiens, a prof~r of earth 

Sunday of news coverage of the and planetary sciences at Washington 

prediction. University, suggested that some scienThe discussion, at Washington Uni- tists had not spoken out earlier against 

versity's Alumni House, was spon- Browning's prediction because they 

sored by the St Louis Chapter of the "hoped it would ev~ctually blow 

Society of Professional Journalists.. away." 

Browning's prediction has been dis· Wiens said that scientists In Memcounted by earthquake experts. _ _ phis and St Louis had vrritten as early 

Those attending had the opportuni- as June that -Browning's forecast was ty to question four panelists drawn • ·unfounded. 

from the print and broadcastmedia;-a Wiens said that he had-been surgovernment planning agency and the prised that reporters had not taken a· 

scientific community. closer look at Browning's earlier 

Dan Freet, deputy director of the St: " predictions. __ _ 

Louis County Office of Emergency · "He's basically claiming to do-the 

Management, said that city and coun~ miraculous," Wiens said. 

ty officials had made a decision sever- Another pane!ist, Post-Dispatch re- al months ago not to support the pre- porter William Allen, said people who 

diction of Browning, a climatologist criticized the news media for "allowfrom New Mexico. ing the Browning matter.to get out of 

But disaster planning officials did hand are missing obvious use media and public interest in: the complications." 

prediction to sell their standard mes- Allen noted that Browning was a sage of encouraging long-term prepa- consultant to businesses, a research 

ration against possible earthquakes, institution and other organizations. 

Freet said. "We rode the crest of the Still others subscribe to a newsletter wave-is what we're saying,'' he said. published by Browning, Allen said. 

Browning has forecast a 50-50 "I'm; .not prepared to say that all 

chance of a major earthquake during those peop_Ie are stupid," Allen said. 
156• RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

12-3-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Quiver: New Madrid Tries To Get Through The Day 

By Peter Hamon 

Of the Post-DIIpatch Staff 

NEW MADRID, Mo. - Most residents in this trembly town will try to make this a day like any other. But it 

won't be easy, thanks to a widely discounted earthquake prediction that 

has zeroed in on today for a pOtential 

Big One. 

Although the forecast bas been 

blasted by the nation's leading quake 

experts, the prediction has. upset the 

rhythm in this rural community, 

where the surrounding fields are dusted white by cotton fragments left re- cently from the fall picking. · 

Among other things, the prediction 

by lben Browning of a major earthquake has closed schools and prompted one large employer to band out smoked turkeys to tempt workers to show up for their shifts. 

It also bas led to the stockpiling of 

emergency food, water and medical 

supplies. 

. TOday-; seven first 8fd-statloM will 

be staffed by vol~teers in this com- munity, which numbers 3,200 residents. The fire department's two vintage pumpers will be parked in a reinforced buUding near the MisSissippi River levee. And Gov. John Ashcroft - unmoveq by talk of "quake, 

rattle and roll" -Is scheduled to visit 

the local grain inspection office. 

"We've been planning for three 

months for this," said police Chief Jim 

"Mr. Jim" Helms as he worked on an ailing Chevrolet engine Sunday. "I've ·never seen people cooperate any bet- ter than Qlis. We've done evelj'tlling 

we can to get ready" for something 

that most authorities agree will hap-

-pen someday if not today. -

Many of the 1,500 employees at the 

Noranda Aluminum Inc. plant - by 

lar, the town's largest employer- are expected to stay home. Plant manag- ers planned to use turkeys to try to .(lOax them to the plant. which domi- nates. the low-slung New Madrid 

skyline. 

It was a similar story in nearby 

Portageville, another Bootheel com- munity 15 miles away. An automotive 

parts plant that normally employs 600 at this tim~ of the year will have only a skeleton work force - if that. said 

Ernie.Payne, a company manger. _· "I_s~nt my wife and kid to Dallas," 

J'ayne said Sunday afternoon after 

$1iooting a round of golf at the New 

Madrid Country Club, "I don't think 

anything is going to happen, but ... " 

It's the "but" that has kept residents 

bere on edge a tad. They don't believe 

13rowning's forcast, and yet they will 

feel far better when it's expired and 

fhe last of the small army of reporters 

has decamped and gone home. 

·-When the Rev. Paul D. Lathum, pastor of the First United Methodist 

Church, asked his congregation, "Has 

anyo11e not been interviewed yet?" 

only one woman raised her hand. 

There were reporters enough for 

every ·denomination on Sunday. The 

Catholic, Baptist, and Presbyterian 

churches all had their contingent of 

television and print people talking to congregants on the front steps. It was 

no different in Lathum's tidy brick 

church. "It's like having an elephant 

in the house, folks," Lathum an- nounced from the pulpit. grinning.· 

"We're going to kept bumping into 

them, so we might as well get 

acquainted." _ 

Like so many others-in New Madrid, 

the pastor, who doubles as a disaster 

coordinator for his church, doubts 

anything will happen today. "Things are pretty much normal here," he 

said. "But that's not to say some of us aren't worried." 

OutSide, the sign in front of the 

church said: "The Best Prepa,rationA Personal Relationship with Jesus 

Christ." 

Lathum's congregation, by the way, 

has experience with earthquakes. It 

was founded· in 1810, the year before 

the great quake that put New Madrid 

forever on the map as a blip on one of 

the potentially most dangerous earthquake zones in the world. Residents 

easily recite the details of these mon- strous shocks: the Mississippi whipsawed and flowed upstream, church 

bells rang as far away as Boston and 

Reelfoot Lake was formed across the 

river in Tennessee as huge tracts of 

landsank. · 

"Church attendance picked up a whole lot after that quake," Lathum 

said. 

The New Madrid Fault is a broad 

belt of weakened rock that stretches 

120 miles from Marked Tree, Ark., to Cairo, Ill. 

Browning, a climatologist from New 

Mexico, has predicted a 50-50 chance 

of a quake measuring between 6.5 and 

7.5 on the Richter scale on the fault. 

His forecast covers the period from 

last Saturday through Wednesday but 

focuses on today. He calls the spread 

"dates of maximum danger." 

A national panel of earthquake ex- perts calls it something else - baloney. Scientists from the National 

Earthquake Prediction Evaluation 

Council pronounced the prediction a 

"disservice" to the public and said 

they found "no scientific basis" for it. 

Street hawker John Harlow, who 

drove five hours from his home in 

Alabama to sell T -shirts, just knows 

that Iben Browning is putting some change in his pockets. His "It's Not My 

Fault" shirts were selling briskly 

along Main Street on Sunday 

afternoon. 

"I tried to sell them in Memphis, but 

they weren't moving, so I came up 

here," said Harlow, 23. 

A dozen or so television stations 

from places as far afield as Louisville, 

Ky., Kansas City, Atlanta, alld St. Louis 

had par-ked their. trucks on Main 

Street. not far from the New Madrid 

Museum. 

..:Xhere were so many people from 

the media that the city's leaders held a fish-fry for them. 

The television cr~ws were shooting 

.the locals, who were shooting back 

with their own cameras. 

"I just wanted to film the news me- dia, filming the residents, who were 

filming the news media," said David 

Crowe of Cape Girardeau. "It's a heck 

of a time." 

Drills Pretend Earthquake Prediction Come$ ·True 

By Phil Linsalata 

and Robert Manor 

Of·the Post-Dispatch Staff 

· The subterranean command post of· 

the city of St. Louis emergency man- agement response team was packed 

Sunday morning, and every available seat was taken by team leaders ready 

to. dispatch crews ranging from firefighters to water company workers. 

In ·the world according to lben 

Drowning, it was prime time for an :earthquake, and the people who were 

crammed into the room beneath Sol-

~liers Memorial were pretending that 

·Br-owning's prediction for an earth-

'QUake this week was real. The prediction has been discounted by earthquake experts.-

North-Tucker Boulevard bad collapsed rn the ooo block. Bridges along 

Kingshighway were down. Bridges 

across the Mississippi were impassable except to emergency traffic. The 

Fire Department's main communication link went down With its main an- tenna, forcing conversion to an auxiliary system. 

More U,.an 1,000 firefighters, emer- gency medical technicians, police officers and others participated in the 

mock disaster, according to William 

Kuehling, the city's director of public · safety. They drove to scenes, assessed 

damage and looked for ways to improve their approach. 

Meanwhile Sunday, an earthquake 

drill in St. Charles County included the 

"collapse" of Francis Howell High 

School near Weldon Spring, which 

simulated the deaths of 40 people and 

the injury of 80 others. 

Browning, a climatologist. has predicted a 50-50 chance of a quake 

measuring between 6.5 and 7.5 on the 

Richter scale in the New Madrid Fault 

from last Saturday through Wednesday. A national panel of earthquake 

experts has called the forecast "scientifically invalid" and has found that 

Browning has predicted no other 

earthquakes, despite claims by him 

and his supporters. 

In St. .L.ouis on .Sunday, the drill 

peaked shOrtly before 11 a.m. with 

reports of the partial collapse of the 

Missouri School for the Blind, 3815 

Magnolia Avenue. · 

In St. Charles, as many as 1,500 

people, many of them emergency 

workers volunteering their timer dealt 

With a simulated earthquake registering 7.6 on the Richter scale. 

Sarah Sever, Jackie Wolf and Bobbie Thomas, alll6 and residents of the 

New Melle and Defiance areas, were assigned to struggle with firefighters 

after they were rescued, to demand 

medical attention they didn't need 

and to scream, which contributed to a general sense of panic. 

Ray Kemp, a spokesman for the St. 

Charles County. Ambulance District. 

said the exercise -turned up at leastone problem: not enough medical per~ 

sonnet were available to treat the simulated injuries. 

Others in St. Louis treated life under 

Browning's cloud in a completely re-

. laxed fashion Sunday. 

At the ticket counter for 9reyhound-Trail ways Bus Lines, agent 

Beverly Smith said she saw no evidence of an exodus. . Nor bas fear chilled holiday shopping fever. "It's a full pack," said 

Northwest Plaza security officer Ken 

Phillips. 

At the Gateway Arch, visitors abandoned their concern and embarked on 

a trip to the top. 

"Sure I was thinking about it." said 

Chris Wichmann of St. Louis. "All the 

way up, I kept thinking that lben 

Browning is a clown." · 

Tom Mansell, in town from upstate 

New York With his family _for his 

daughter's cross-country competition 

Saturday, compared the risk of a trip 

to St. Louis with a trip to New York 

City. 

"New York is one 'big fault." he 

quipped. 

"You might get eauibt in an earthquake in St. Louis,"Matisell said. "But 

in New York City,• you will get 

mugged. The earthquake never en- tered our minds." · · 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 157 

VIRGIL TIPTON DRIVE TIME 

12-3-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Illinois Isn't Talking About A Study Of 

Bridge Approaches I~ Quake 

I

F YOU'VE EVER wondered if the approaches to the Poplar Street Bridge would 

survive an earthquake, don't ask officials at 

the illinois Department of Transportation. . 

. They're not telling. Today's a natural day 

to ask the question. New Mexico climatologist 

!ben Browning has forecast a 50-50 chance of 

a big quake hitting the New Madrid Fault 

within 48 hours ·on either side of today. • 

I think the prediction is nothing but baloney, but asking the question about the bridge 

approaches is easy. . 

. Gettirig the-answer is not . 

· Under a contract with the department, 

Sverdrup C!>rP- of St Louis, has written a 

study· of the impact of an earthquake on the 

approaches to the_ bridge .. It's part of the 

department's program to decide which 

bridges in the state are in most need of 

reinforcement to Withstand earthquakes. 

With each ·big earthquake, engineers know 

a little more about what effect an earthquake 

w~uld have on bridges and other structUres, 

said Ralph Anderson,· who heads the bridge 

office at the department's headquarters in 

Springfield. Often that new knowledge is reflected in federal or state construction codes. 

The Poplar street bridge was built more 

than two decades ago, when engineers did 

not design it with today's standards in mind. 

So the purpose of this study is to determine 

-bow to reinforce the approaches and bow · 

much that work would cost 

The department has the 100-plus-page -report but doesn't plan to release it for several 

weeks, said John. Burke of the department's 

public relations office in Springfield. 

That's becaUSJ! the study now in hand is just 

a draft, not the final document, Burke said. 

Department bridge experts are studying the 

report now to venry ligures ana other items, 

he said. 

So although interest in quakes is high 

right now, Burke won't let the public see one 

page of the report 

. A suspicious person might think that the 

report contains bad news, news that the department would like to let the public see in a 

few weeks, when the. earthquake frenzy bas 

settled a bit 

I'm glad I'm not a suspicious person. 

How _could Burke keep !bat report- draft 

or !lot-from the public? After all, taxpayers 

paid for It 

. Burke a_nd department lawyer George 

Tmkbam Cited a law called the Illinois Freedom of Information Act, which says which 

government documents must be made public. 

They cited a portion that exempts drafts of 

internal documents. 

It's a funny world when a law called the 

Freedom of Information Act is used to seal 

records away. 

In fact, Burke went a step further.'He said 

that because the law allowed a government 

agency to withhold drafts of internal documents, If be made. ~t study public now, be 

Tt.e department has the 

100-plus-page report but 

doesn't plan to release it for 

several weeks. 

Eventually, we'll find out what the report 

says. Eventually we'll find out whose predictions about quakes were right , 

But las_t week, Burke managed to issue 

a ·prediction that proved to be amazingly 

accurate. Sitting in Burke's office, Tinkham 

and I agreed that the contract with Sverdrup 

might give some clue as to whether the report 

could be released; · . · 

Would be breaking the law. 

I'm-not a lawyer, but that one bad me 

scratching my head. I mean, If. you've got a· 

license to drive a truck instead of a car, does 

that mean you have to drive a truck? In other 

words, couldn't Burke release that document 

if be wanted to. 

As we waited for a copy of the contrac~ 

Anderson called Burke to ask if I needed to 

talk with him before I left for the day. Yes, I 

would, I told Burke, if Tinkham decided I 

could get the report "'You won't get it," 

Burke said. · 

And he was right. 

12-3-90 

USA Today 

Copyright 1990. Reprinted with permission 

Quake day is here - maybe 

Prediction is 

'history for 

New Madrid' 

By carolyn Pesce 

USA TODAY 

NEW MADRID, Mo.- This 

cotton-farming community in 

the USA's heartland was a 

frenzied carnival Sunday, as 

tourists, officials and hordes of 

media llooded downtown before the big earthquake predicted to hit today. 

Traffic jammed Main Street, 

guitar players sang quake 

song;, vendors were running 

out of quake T-sbirts and 

preachers were talking about 

the end of the world. 

Townspeople, armed- with 

cameras and video recorders, 

took pictures of the media tak- . 

lng pictures of them. 

"This is phenomenal," said 

Los Angeles psychologist Robert Butterworth, who ~t up 

shop in the packed historical 

museum to counsel those 

stressed by the prediction. 

Since New Mexico scientist 

Then Browning predicted last 

fall there was a 50-50 chance of a major quake on the New Madrid fault, this namesake town 

has been turned upside down. 

,And the zoolike atmosphere 

here Sunday was just the beginning of what's expected to be 

another wild day today. 

"'This is history for New 

Madrid," said Heidi Nesselrodt, who sent her four children to their grandmother's 

house in Mississippi because of 

the prediction - but stayed 

herself to film the action. 

There was plenty to recor~> 

with a survival revival in Sikeston, 20 miles away, stories 

about highway angels telling 

hitchhikers to leave the area, 

bars selling earthquake drinks, 

and local hotels advertising 

special quake rates. 

Tom's Grill opened for the 

lirst time ever on a Sunday. Pa- trons joked about getting their 

eggs "earthquake shook" instead of scrambled. . 0 

Sam Hunter Jr., president of 

the New Madrid Bank, had 22 

of his family members over for 

a quake breakfast 

Hunter gave bank employees their -Christmas bonuses 10 

days ago 5o they could use the 

money to get ready for the 

earthquake. 

"'At least everybody knows 

how to pronounce our name 

now," said lawyer Lynn Bock 

(it's new MAD-rid). ' 

"'This is the biggest thing 

that's happened around here 

for a long time," said Kenny 

Davis, who has been working 

non-stop fo~ Southwestern Bell 

installing 40 extra phone lines 

for the dozens of reporters. 

An empty lield across from 

the history museum became 

the parking lot for television 

satellite trucks and vans. and 

mobile homes full of reporters, 

producers and editors. . 

The running joke In town: 

Residents are more afraid of 

gettiog run over by a lV truck 

than getting hit by a quake. 

The Rev. David Hulshof, of 

Immaculate Conception catholic Church, was almost late to 

his 10:30 a.m. Mass because of 

all the phone calls asking if he 

was going to talk about the 

quake. He wasn't And at the Baptist church, 

the Rev. Dean Wallace interrupted the service when a cameraman started moving around 

the room shooting pictures. 

•

1

u was questionable to allow 

you in," he scolded. "'Please respect our right to worship." 

Elijah Streicher, who arrived from Cincinnati In a beatup car plastered with religious 

messages, had his own prediction: that the entire town needed to repent for its sins- "and 

fast" - or God would destroy 

the city in 40 days. 

"'Lord help us," said Mayor 

Dick Phillips of the scene. 

His strangest call to date; 

areport about blackbirds !lying 

backward - supposedly a sign 

of the quake. 
158 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTIIQUAKE 

12-4-90 

Arkansas Gazette 

Reprinted by permission of the 

Arkansas Democrat-Gazette 

· ..... ...... · .. ··· .re;;tb . 

<. • 

/fi/55017/(/ 

TtNNf55f£ 

Alex Cameron/Gazette Staff 

Heard along the fault line. 

E

ven though scientists made disparaging remarks about Iben Browning's 

earthquake forecast, Arkansans certainly paid attention to it. 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 

Town·mostly quiet on quake day 

By Jennifer Gordon over. Blaine said he did not know if the family had Gazette Jonesboro ·Bureau been notified and did not want to reveal their names. MARKED TREE - Monday may have been a day 

of tension and suspense for the scientific community 

and the media as the world watched to see if the 

ground would shake. 

But the conversation at Buck's Supermarket leaned 

more toward the people who had left town and missed 

the parade of cameras and reporters. 

Barbara Tate, a cashier at the supermarket, said her 

brother-in-law and his wife took off to the Ozark hills 

to wait out the earthquake - just in time for the 

Ozarks to have their own 2.0 temblor. She said she 

couldn't stop laughing when she heard about the 

quake. 

No one could laugh, however, about the cinders that 

were left of one family's home. Tommy Blaine, an 

Emergency Medical Technician with the ambulance 

service, said the fire department received a call about 

1:41 Monday morning to put out a house fire on 

Homes Street. After searching the structure, firefighters were informed that the family had left to stay with 

relatives in Texas until after the earthquake scare was 

Tate said the people of Marked Tree bought items to 

prepare themselves for an earthquake weeks ago and 

Monday were content to buy regular groceries. She 

said tnost people who come through the line want to 

know why the media is still in town if the earthquake 

is supposed to be so devastating. 

Bill Henderson a 10-year city council member for 

Marked Tree, said the people of the town are veterans 

of survival. Most of the men have supplies on hand for 

deer hunting, he said, so the families already have the 

supplies they need to survive without food and shelter. 

He said he is more worried about tornadoes than he is 

about a projected earthquake. 

Dan Cicerello, OES earthquake preparedness supervisor, said he was glad to see towns that were not 

prepared for an earthquake six months ago participating in the weekend drill. He said future preparedness 

depends on attention from the media and area officials. 

It never hurts to be prepared 

159 

12-4-90 

Arkansas Gazette 

Reprinted by permission of the 

Arkansas Democrat-Gazette 

School closings 

s,·hools in Northeast Arkansas that stayed open 

Monday reported high absentee rates. A survey of se· 

lected districts found these 

attendance rates Monday: 

Jonesboro - 65 percent. 

Harrisburg - 60 percent. 

Blytheville - 50 percent. 

Marion - 40 percent. 

Paragould - 62 percent. 

Trumann. - 42 percent. 

Piggott -"- 60 percent. 

Wynne - 50 percent. 

Manila - 35 percent. 

Marianna - 60 percent. 

Even in central Arkansas 

the. Pulaski County, North. 

Little Rock and Little Rock 

school districts all reported 

noticeably higher-than-average absenteeism at some 

schools Monday, although 

they. didn't have exact figures. 

YELLVILLE- It doesn't seem 

much different from getting ready 

for an ice storm. Check the oil 

lamps. Get kerosene for emergency heat. Extra food - the 

roads will be impassable . 

Matches? 

around the New Madrid fault line 

were not so interesting to us as the 

three red dots across the lower 

section of Marion County. Forget 

the New Madrid - we're quakin' 

and shakin' right here. 

Mr. Davis' message Wflll delivered in his matter-of-fact, downhome manner. It was perfect for a 

hysteria-prone subject. Although I 

had been following news about the 

New Madrid fault for about 13 

years, I learned a lot. Especially 

about those three red dots in MarMost people are just like me, I 'than we were even a month ago. 

would guess. They've done every- Probably, the reality of it is that we 

thing they can think of, and they will need our survival skills and our 

keep thinking of other things they emergency kits eventually. In the 

can do ·to prepare. (Pack away meantime, we can count our blessgreat-grandmother's compote!) ings and call it an easy winter if we 

They are going ahead with their can make it to spring without using 

lives with a wary approach to this the kerosene, the lamp oil and the 

week and beyond. extra food during an ice storm. 

What's the 

weather in Fayetteville? Has it 

hit Oklahoma? 

In an ice ion County. 

The big one will probably not Community columnist Cam Semelsberoccur this week, but now we are ~rlsawriterandlnnkeaperinYellville. 

more aware and more prepared 

Cam 

&melsberger storm, we'd Mr. Davis laid it on the line. The ,...--------------------------- have some warning. We'd have a few hours 

warning, and then, once it arrived, 

we would go to bed snug in the 

knowledge that we were ready. 

The problem is, we're not under a 

winter storm watch; we're under an 

earthquake watch. Now we ask, 

blankets? Water for two weeks? 

Where will we cook? The concept 

of preparing for a disaster takes on 

another dimension. If only inteUec: 

tuany and materially, we can be 

ready for the ground to shake. 

David Davis, the Civil Defense 

coordinator for Marion County, 

has been giving earthquake preparedness speeches at the rate of 

one a day since the prediction by 

Mr. Browning was publicized. By 

~e time I saw Mr. D).vis' presentation in November, it was speech 

number 45, and the posters were 

getting a bit dog-eared. Still, they 

were very effective. One poster 

showed the epicenters of earthquakes in Arkansas for the last 10 

years. The run-together dots 

high population centers will get the 

most attention, and they will get it 

first. Consider that our electricity 

is not generated locally. Consider 

the number of bridges linking our 

county with the rest of Arkansas. 

We will be low priority, and we will 

need to be able to fend for ourselves and help our neighbors. 

There has been a lot of earthquake talk around the county, and 

it's good that the people's level of 

awareness has been raised. It's 

gcoo to think out a plan and to 

consider survival strategies. Not all 

the talk is planning, of course. 

There are the pooh-poohers who 

say it's all a bunch of bunk and who 

come close to denying that the 

earthquakes of 1811-1812 ever occurred. A few are scared witless 

about it. Some talk of howling dogs 

and booms deep in local caverns at 

the time of the latest quakes. One 

friend said we weren't in any dan· 

ger and turned to his wife to tell her 

that they'd probably lose their 

chimney. 

No sign of quake 

in Memphis - yet 

By John Reinan Gazette Staff 

MEMPHIS - Tennessee's larg- est city stood still Monday. 

' Oh, the people of Memphis 

moved around plenty. But the city 

itself, built on the silty banks of the 

Mississippi River, didn't experience the major earthquake that 

New Mexico climatologist !ben 

Browning had forecast for it. 

Browning's forecast included a 

two-day window on either side of 

Monday, so the jury is still out on 

his forecast until Wednesday -

except, that is, in the minds of the 

top elected officials of Memphis 

and Shelby County. 

At a Monday breakfast meeting 

of the Business Emergency Pre· 

paredness Council, Metnphis 

Mayor Richard Hackett and 

Shelby County Mayor Bill Morris 

denounced Browning's forecast in 

the strongest terms. 

"Browning has absolutely no 

credibility," Hackett said, calling 

the quake forecast "a ridiculous 

suggestion." "I came to thismeeting with some reluctance," Hackett 

told . the group of about 50, "because I was concerned that imme 

people might think I was giving 

Browning's forecast public credence. 

"I don't give it any credence 

whatsoever." 

Morris said that Browning had 

See MEMPHIS 
160 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

12-4-90 

Arkansas Gazette 

(Continued) Memphis the day." 

Dr. Arch Johnston, director C)f 

the Center for Earthquake REi' 

search and Information at Memphis State University, said that 

quake hysteria gained momentum 

·because "the practicing earth science community" did a poor job of 

presenting information to counter 

Browning's forecast. 

lines that are the graphic evidence 

of seismic tremors. 

Continued from Page 1A 

done Memphis "a great disservice," but acknowledged at least . 

one positive aspect to the quake 

hysteria. 

Included among the center's battery of seismographs are instruments that take their measurements ·at Hoggard's Bluff, 

Wittsburg Lake and Olyphant, 

Ark. ' 

"I think this community has become totally alerted to the fact that 

we've got to approach things differently than we did in the past," 

Morris said. 

"A year ago, nobody talked about 

seismic things - it was a word that 

was hardly in anybody's vocabul!lry. 

"But I'm going to go dowqtown 

now and show you my confidence," 

Morris said. "I have an office on 

the eighth floor of the low-bid, 

low-bt;dget county office b1~ilding, 

and l',r.t going to be there the.rest of 

Asked why earth scientists didn't 

act sooner to counter Browning, 

Johnston said, "You set a bad precedent. There are a lot of fringe 

predictions out there .... In essence, there was such a lack of 

scientific content out there that 

you couldn't evaluate it ." 

At Mud Island downtown, workers continued their labors on the 

Great American Pyramid, despite 

the fact that Mud Island would be 

hit hard if a major quake were to 

occur. Amos Miller, a scaffold builder at 

the Pyramid site, said he was keeping alert for any signs of a quake. 

"I'm concerned about it, sure," 

Miller said. "There's too much 

steel and concrete up above me. 

12-4-90 

Jackson (Tenn.) Sun 

Reprinted by permission 

At the Memphis State earthquake center, a dozen or so seismographs were quietly tracing smooth 

patterns Monday · mornin.1- There 

were none of the swooping, jagged 

"I tell you, if I feel something I 

haven't felt before, I'm g 'tting out 

of here." 

- Jl• a:c • l: 1 i : 1 J: 1 =i','' ~ ti! • 1 ;11• 1 D•J 11 i ~ 1: 1 ~ 

Earthquake Center workers 

field ·hysterical phone calls 

'What time?' is most often asked question 

By Mary S. Reed 

Sun senior writer 

MEMPHIS - Officials at Memphis' 

Earthquake Center spent Monday calming people's nerves and answering 

media questions. 

"Callers want to know what time it's 

going to happen,'' said-secretary Anitra 

Williams, wh·o answers tfie center's 

phoneli. "What time? What time. But we have no way of knowing when an earthquake is going to happen." 

One woman phoned Monday just to tell 

Williams that she was going to sleep in a hard hat until Thursday, Williams said. 

Another wanted to confirm - erroneous- ly - that earthquakes don.'t happen at 

night, she said. · 

"It's been a long time since I got any 

normal work done." 

The Center for Earthquake Research 

and Information at Memphis State University has sent out 10,000 earthquake 

preparedness kits and fielded thousands 

of calls since climatologist Iben Browning projected a 50-50 chance of major 

quake on the New Madrid fault Monday. 

Officials like director Arch Johnston 

and associate director Jim Dorman 

spent the day meeting media representatives from as far away as Kansas City, 

Kan., and Montgomery, Ala. Other professors at the center are attending a geophysiCal conference in San Francisco 

this week. 

"We really are trying to. do business as normal," said Jill Stevens,.in charge of 

the center's public information, of Monday's activities. 

Geology students from Austin Peay 

State University in Clarksville toured 

the center on their way to New Madrid, 

Mo., and Reelfoot Lake. 

"We wanted to be here if it happened,"joked student Tony Gibbs. The biggest .blip on the drums recording seismic activity at the center Monday morning was .a quarry dynamite 

blast near Pickwick Lake. The 13-yearold center has 80 underground sensors 

scattered throughout several states, said 

Greg Steiner, technical director. "The worse possible thing that could 

happen today is a felt earthquake," said 

Steiner Monday. "It would give credence 

to this pseudo prediction." 

Center draftsman Tonya George found a way· to make some extra money by 

peddling $16 sweatshirts, which said, " I 

survived the Great Quake of '90." 

"I'm amazed," George said, "I didn't 

think anyone would want them." · Phone calls to the center seemed to 

reach their hysterical peak last Wednesday and Thursday with rumors that 

Reelfoot Lake was bubbling and the 

fault line was steaming, said Williams. 

Monday's calls were calmer, she said. 

The .. center's staff takes each call 

seriously, though it's hard not to laugh 

at times, said Stevens. 

One of the phone calls fielded by 

George was from a woman asking how 

long gravity would last on earth after 

the quake struck. Said George: 

"I told her I wasn't worried because I 

have Velcro on my shoes." 
APPENDIX C-TIIE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 161 

12-4-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission of The Commercial Appeal 

NeW" Madrid 'frenzy' finds f~Hfr!ndsdrovesix Media residents hours' from Owensboro to be 

' here on Quake Day. "It was JUSt a gather to 'spit in chance to SJ?it in the [ace of 

death," he sa1d. the face Of death' •Tom's Grill served Shake 'n 

NEW MADRID, Mo. - By the 

time we arrfved here Monday, 

the media feeding frenzy had become an ancient Roman feast. Out-of-town news' photographers and New Madrid residents repeated the days-old ritual of staring deep into each oth- er's zoom lenses. The locals took 

pictures of news crews as the crews filmed locals. The news crews took pictures of locals as they took pictures of the film crews. And even that got old. If the earthquake h!ld hit Monday, as climatologist lben 

Browning predicted there was a S0-50 chance it might, the resuli: 

would have been alphabet soup. 

KWTV, WTVC, KYTV, WLEX, 

KSDK- the call letters of•more than 30 television and radio stations would have been scattered across downtown, along· with 

the massive satellite trucks 

which the letters adorn - the 

"Skylink," the "Newstar," the 

"Live Eye." _ _ 

: A. person standing at the corner of Main and Mott streets, in 

the heart of downtown near the 

Mississippi River levee, could 

turn in a circle and see a hundred or more news media re- prese.ntatives in a several-block area. They outnumbered mere curiosity-seekers about 3-to-1. 

Not that everybody wasn't 

having a great time. The earthquake was all but forgott!ln ex- cept as an excuse for a party. Nobody seemed to expect the big 

shake, even though this was NEW MAt>RID. The town, after 

all, gave the New Madrid fault zone its name after being all but 

destroyed in the quakes of 1811 

and 1812. 

Monday, a single eccentric, 

such as 72-year-old Joe Brasher 

ofPoplar Bluff, Mo., could have 

five microphones· and cameras in his face at any given time - just as he planned. 

"I knew I'd get on the air with 

this hat on," said Brasher, who wore a-low-rent cowboy hat and 

strummed a walnut guitar at a high-visibility intersection. "I'm over here to cut up with all you 

and these ignoramuses. I don't 

know who's more ignorant, you or me - you traveled thousands 

of miles to get here." 

A traveler from Los Angeles, 

psychologist Dr. Robert R. Butterworth, was camped out in the 

New Madrid Historical Museum, 

where it would be impossible for 

the reporters to miss him. "This is the most amazing 

ON THE FAULT LINE 

WITH JOHN BEIFUSS 

thing I've ever seen, and I've 

traveled all across the country," 

the doctor said of the media on- slaught. "I'm a psychologist, and 

I can't explain it.". 

Butterworth said his specialty 

is child psychology. Chris Porter, 10, confided that 

he was disappointed he hadn't 

been filmed by a news camera. The reporter told hiin if he went 

back to Dr. Butterworth and 

asked about his puppets~ he 

would probably get on TV. 

It worked. Butterworth .pulled 

out a green, cloth ghoul and 

said: "This is lben Browning. Do 

you want to punch lben Browning? Go ahead, punch him." 

Chris punched the puppet. 

Then Butterworth dropped iton 

the floor. Kick · him!" Chris 

obeyed. Mission.-accomplished! 

The cameras rolled. "This is the bottom line," But- terworth said. "If you can get little kids to punch lben Browning 

and kick him around the room, 

maybe you can change the fear 

.... 

N 

into anger." 

Despite all this excitement 

and the wall-to-wan people, busi- ness at the museum hasn't been 

very good the past few dBys, said museum board member Evelyn 

Duncan. "We're all full of media, 

and they don't pay." 

Nevertheless, the hype provided many with an opportunity 

to have fun, make money and save souls: • Amy Long, 15, and her 

friends s6ld homemade "Quake 

Cookies" (chocolate chip) and 

"Faulty Muffins" (bluebercy 

and banana nut). 

• Groups·- of st"'udents from 

Southwest Missouri, Western 

Kentucky and other universities came to see an_d _be seen. Doug 

Bake chicken and "Quakeburgers," touted as burgers that 

had been cut jaggedly in half. 

But the ones we received only 

had a break in the bun. • Rev. Sanford Berry, 62, of 

the Assembly of God Church 

drove around town in an Econc• 

line van on which he had painted the words: "Earthquake? or Rapture?" Speakers mounted on the van played inspirational mu- sic. He said people should quit 

worrying about the quake. "Far more important and far more imminent for sure is the coming 

of Jesus Christ." • Volunteers with the New 

Life Evangelical Center, a St. Louis-based coalition for the 

homeless, passed out flashlights, 

"solar blankets," and dried food 

-just in case. Just in case: That's why Jim 

Helms, 63, police chief of this 

town of 3,204, has all six police 

officers and all 15 auxiliary offi- cers on 24-hour standby. 

That's why seven first aid stations are ready to go. And re- member, Browning said the 

quake could happen within 48 

hours of Dec. 3 - that leaves today and Wednesday, too. 

"I've said before, I'm more afraid of the media trucks run- ning over somebody than I am of 

the earthquake," Helms said. 

Scientists renew Browning attack 

50-50 earthquake 

odds 'ridiculous~ 

By Lee Siegel The Associated Press 

SAN FRANCISCO - Earth 

scientists renewed their· attack 

Monday on climatologist lben 

Browning's prediction that un- usually high tides make chances 

of a major New Madrid fault 

quake S0-50 by Thursday. "There is no scientific basis to 

the Browning prediction," said 

Lawrence Braile, a Purdue Uni- versity seismologist and- mem- ber. of a U.S: Geological Survey 

working group that debunked 

the quake projection in October: "There j.s a small -probability 

of an earthquake on any given 

day, but it's the same today as on any other day," he added. 

"Browning has put a SO percent 

chance on it, which is a ridiculous number." 

Braile, Tom Heaton and other 

scientists criticized the projection about the New Madrid 

quake during a press conference 

at the American Geophysical 

Union's fall meeting. However, they refused to rule 

out the possibility of a major 

quake this week along the New 

Madrid fault, in California or Japan, where Browning has said 

the gravitational · tug of tl:re moon and sun might produce se- vere quakes this week. 

Browning, a climatologist and 

business consultant, projected· a SO-SO -chance that the New Madrid fault would be rocked by a tidally triggered quake measur- ing 6.5 to 7.5 on tt;e Richter scale 

this week. ·The advisory panel c<incl~ded 

in October that Browning's forecast lacked scientific validity. The 11 scientists said that although the New Madrid fault is 

likely to be hit by a large earthquake someday, such a disaster 

is no more likely this we.ek than 

at any other time. 

The New Madrid ~one stretches from Cairo, Ill., southwest 

through New Madrid, Mo., to 

Marked Tree, Ark. 

In the winter of 1811-1812 

when the region was sparsely 

populated, the fault produced 

three or four great earthquakes 

estimated at more than 8 on the 

Richter scale. The scale had not 

beep. inyented yet.. - - Th.e-181-1-1812-quakes were the 

strongest in recorded history in 

the. United States. A repeat today 

could cause 4,500 deaths and $51 

billion in damage in Little Rock; 

Memphis, Carbondale, Ill.; 

Evansville, Ind., Paducah, Ky., 

and Poplar Bluff, Mo, according 

to a study done by a Memphis en- gineering firm in the Eighties. 'Jer-Ming Chiu, a Memphis 

State seismologist, said a seismic 

network in the New Madrid re- gion has detected only a few 

tiny, unfelt quakes in recent 

days. 

Reprinted by permission 

of the Associated Press 
162 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARlHQUAKE 

12-4-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission of The Commercial Appeal 

MSU center 

keeps vigil 

as machines 

draw blanks 

By Tom Charlier The Commercial Appeal_ 

With a dark, scrambled line, 

the seismograph sigli.aled som~­

thing was going on up in Dyersburg, Tenn., Monday. Uh-oh. 

Could it be ... ~ 

"Probably a farmer · in his 

field," assured }S:yle Tong, a student technician at· Memphis 

State University's Center for 

Earthquake Research and Information. 

Zone, which stretches from near Cairo, IlL, to Marked· Tree, Ark. 

The stations annually record some 200 quakes having magnitudes of 1.0 or greater on the 

Richter scale within the zone. However, a new, high-tech 

network of portable stations not 

tied into the seismographs re- cords some 400 tremors with 

magnitudes as low as 0.5. The 

Portable Array for Numerical 

Data Acquisition (PANDA) 

network uses 40 buried geophones - small, sensitive devices developed by the oil industry - which transmit radio signals to amplifiers and to an MSU 

station in Tiptonville, Tenn .. where any quake information is 

recorded on computer discs. 

There has been no unusual 

seismic activity since the countdown began Saturday on Brown- i;n~'s projection, experts say. The 

seismographs did record a mi- nor tremor in the Ozark moun- tains early Sunday, and some faraway quakes since then. 

Arch Johnston, director of the 

Memphis State center, said the 

minor ,quakes in the New Madrid 

region, if anything, should be 

reassuring. 

"One of the precursors of a big 

quake is the small quakes shut 

off - what we call 'seismic 

quiessence," Johnston said. 

A quake's first signature on the seismograph comes in the 

form of a low-amplitude zigzag. 

It represents the "p" wave. which is the sound wave that 

travels through the ground 

when a temblor occurs. The "p" wave is followed by 

the "s," or shear, wave, which 

brings higher-amplitude and more damaging vibrations. The 

time difference between the two waves - a matter of seconds - grows as they emanate ·from the 

quake epicenter. 

The best stations for recording New Madrid quakes generally are the ones situated in bedrock, outside the actual seismic 

Although it has created a regional 

frenzy, lben Browning's projection 

that there is a 50-50 chance for an 

earthquake in. the New Madrid fauri 

zone in early DeCember has been 

rejected as scientifically unfounded 

by most geologistS, including the 

National Earthquake Prediction 

Evaluation Council. 

zone in locations like Hoggard's 

Bluff, Ark. The soft sediments 

found within the zone readily 

amplify "outside" noise, such as the farm machinery picked up 

by the Dyersburg station. making it more difficult to discern 

quakes. "It's a crummy place to run a seismic station," said Johnston. 

In these . "ays · of earthquake paranoia, a corridor· of. seisriJ.ographs at the MSU center has become an epicenter of nondrama. 

For several days, students, parents and reporters have passed 

by trying to derive some reassur- ance or meaning from the pulsating lines that would provide 

the first tangible record of a temblor. 

Monday was the main "danger" date specified by New Mexi- co climatologist Iben Browning 

in his projection for a possible 

quake within the New Madrid 

seismic zone. However, just 

about the only vibrations picked 

up by MSU were from "background" noise, such as farm ma- chinery and quarry blasts. 

New Madrid fault is inching across 

hot inner layer like 'eggs on a skillet' 

As graduate students and technicians tried to go about their 

normal research and work at the 

center; visitors checked for 

signs of activity Monday. . "I've been real scared, so I just came by," said Missy Foster, a freshman nursing student from 

Memphis. "If there had been any 

activity, I was to. going to go 

home and put my head under my desk." 

The seismographs. register 

ground vibrations on graph paper mounted on slowly turning 

drums. The machines receive 

signals picked up from sensors, 

called seismometers, buried in more • than a dozeri locations 

throughout the Mid-South. 

Both Memphis State and St. 

Louis University operate permanent seismometer stations serv- ing the New Madrid Seismic 

The Associated Press 

The New Madrid fault, site of 

past and predicted earthquakes, 

IS a series of cracks running 

through a plate in the Earth's 

crust, a Memphis expert says. 

The geographical formation, 

about 15 miles .wide and 200 

miles Ion~. runs along the MisSISSippi R1ver from southern Illinois· to Marked Tree, Ark., just 

north of Metnphis. New Mexico 

climatologist Iben Browning 

had said there was a 50-50 

chance that a series of strong 

earthquakes would hit the fault 

early this week. Many scientists dismiss~d his forecast, but said 

there w1ll be a quake measuring 

up to 6.0 on the Richter scale in 

the next few decades. 

The New Madrid fault is in the 

middle of the North American 

Plate, one of dozens of plates 

that ~lowly inch across partially 

molten layers beneath the 

Earth's surface, like eggs on a gigantic skillet It is unlike most 

fault areas, which occur where 

two plates collide. 

The New Madrid fault was formed when the North Ameri- can Plate stretched to the cracking point, more than 500 million 

years ago. Fractures formed, allowing magma to intrude into 

the 'Earth's crust, said Arch 

Johnston, director of the Memphis State Earthquake Research 

and Information Center. 

As the strain of stretching con- tinued in the middle of the huge plate, magma (or molten rock) 

drained to the surface, triggering further cracking. 

Next came the Paleo~oic era, more than 225 million years ago. 

Prolonged compression caused 

the area to sink, and shallow seas dewsited lavers of sedimentary rock over it. 

Then, in the Mesozoic era, the area rose again. This allowed 

magma to once again intrude 

into the crust Johnston says the 

modern fault area is in a period 

of compression and the. slow 

sinking eventually will lead to a strong quake. 

Unlike the San Andreas fault, 

which is visible at the surface of 

the Earth, the New Madrid fault 

is buried deep under many lay- ers of sedimentary rock. The 

shifting of these· underlying 

faults causes many quakes each 

year, most of which are not felt 

However, Johnston says the 

fault area has been reactivated. A quake of up to 6.0 on the 

Richter scale is expected even- tually. A quake that size can 

cause severe damage. In October 1989, 66 people died in a northern California earthquake 

that was recorded at 7.1. A quake 

of 7.1 would be 10 times stronger 

than a quake of 6.1 on the 

Richter scale. 

Earthquakes along the New 

Madrid fault in 1811-12 were strong enough to shift the course of the Mississippi River 

and ring church bells on the 

East Coast. Quakes struck along 

the fault in later decades, but 

these are the most powerful 

known along the New Madrid 

fault They were estimated at u·p 

to 8.75 on the Richter scale, 

which hadn't been invented 

then. The highest earthquake 

that has been measured registered 8.9 on the scale. 

Reprinted by permission of the Associated Press 
Arts events 

feel impact 

of worries 

over quake 

forecast 

By Whitney Smith The Commercial Appeal 

Earthquake worries are hurting ticket sales for local holiday arts events that are traditionally 

big moneymakers. 

Climatologist Iben Browning's 

widely publicized quake prediction damaged attendance at a few arts events Sunday and Monday, and has affected ticket sales 

for future events, some arts officials said. But others said they 

have noticed no effect. 

Hardest hit has been Memphis 

Concert Ballet, whose annual 

production of Tl)eNutcrackerits bigg~ m~p.eymaker- opens 

Friday .at the Orpheum theater.- The Nutcracker Ball, a new fund-raiser planned for last 

APPENDIX C-TIIE PREDICTION IN 1HE PRESS 163 

weekend, with ticket prices up to $250 and a goal of $100,000, was canceled. · Ball organizers "felt there·was going to be such an overaction to this ridiculous earthquake 

prediction that it would be very 

difficult to sell the event," said 

Dorothy Gunther Pugh, Memphis Concert Ballet's artistic di- rector. 

Tickets never went on sale for 

the Saturday event. "They felt we would invest money in the 

ball, and people would be so 

frightened, they would not re- spond." 

Meanwhile, Nutcracker stu- dent matinees were trimmed 

from four to three, and atten- dance is expected to drop from 

8,000 to about 6,000. Also, sales 

for public shows are down 27 

percent from last year. "This may be more than . the 

earthquake," Mrs. Pugh said. 

"To me; it's also the beginning of 

the effect of the economy. A re- cession is pending and people are holding on to their money 

longer." 

Below-par attendance was re- ported after Monday's Theatre 

Memphis student matinee of A 

Christmas Car,ol and Sunday's 

Memphis Symphony concert . . 

12-4-90 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Reprinted by permission of The Commercial Appeal 

But Monday's Playhouse on director Cam Williams. 

the Square matinee of Annie was · ·Attendance will also be down 

packed and Monday night's at student matinees, a major revMemphis Youth Symphony con- enue source, Ms. Williams said. cert was scheduled to go on as Three morning matinees will go 

planned. . , on as plpnned Wednesday, 

The extent and impact of the Thursday and Friday, but a tra- drop in revenue some groups ditionally slow-selling noon ma- liave experienced won't be tinee was dropped. 

known until after the holiday A Christmas Carol matinees at shows close. Theatre Memphis ordinarily sell 

"There will certainly be a·n im- out, but 150 of 425 seats were pact on our bottom line, if we are filled Monday, said marketing not able to show excellent atten- director Brad Watson. 

dance at The Nutcracker and are "Our night perfor,mances have not able to recoup dollars with not been interrupted at all," 

other fund-raisers," said Evelyn Watson said. "But there were a Craft, Concert Ballet's general couple of matinees disrupted bemanager. "This has significantly cause some schools were relucaffected our planp,ing. We had tant to come." 

hoped to raise $100,000 on the . Watson said if attendance deNutcracker Ball, and we are bus- clines continue, ShoWagon, a ily regrouping to put together youth-oriented performance two or three fund-raisers before troupe of paid actors who per· 

the end of the year." forms a condensed version of A 

As of last Friday, some 1,561 Christmas Carol, could be affectsingle tickets for the four'public ed. 

Nutcracker shows had .been Aboutathirdoftheirbudgetis 

sold, down from 2,128 last year, made each year off A Christmas 

said Concert Ballet marketing Carol, he said. 

Pressing On 12-4-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

New Madrid Ready Reprinted by permission For Media To Leave 

By Peter Hernon 

Of the POII·DIIpetch Staff 

NEW MADRID, Mo. - Mayor 

Dick Phillips hopes that stories of crows fiy!ng backward, bt;bbllng river water and other rumors that have 

made sides shake, If not the ground, 

In this earthquake-prone community 

will soon become as rare as roving 

television crews. 

Reporters planned to pack up 

their cameras and notepads today 

and leave town. It was time to clear 

out, now tluit a diScounted earthquake forecast appeared to be as reliable as the elderly woman who telephoned Phillips from Salem, Ore., to firmly warn that a Big One was a certainty Monday 

because her back ached. 

After some 500 visitors poured 

Into this picturesque community 

of 3,200 - the most Phillips can 'remember - residents are darIng to talk about life after Iben 

Browning's much-criticized 

earthquake forecast. 

"1 think quite a few people will be 

sorry to see all the news people go," 

he said: "It's given us the opportunity to be national news for four days, but now that's history." 

Not quite. Although Browning's prediction of a 50-50 chance for a quake 

measuring between 6.5 and 7.5 on the 

Richter scale zeroed in on Monday, 

his forecast extends .through Wednesday. Schools will remain closed today - many of the children were down on Main Street on Monday watcliing the 

reporters - and state and local offices expect to be short of staff. 

Schools reopen Wednesday. 

Scientists' have blasted the forecast 

by Browning, a climatologist. from 

New Mexico, as a "disservice" - if not downright quackery. Browning's 

prediction, they say, carries "no scientific basis." 

Sen. Christopher S. Bond, R-Mo., 

who visited New Madrid on a chilly 

Monday afternoon, was more charitable. Although be gave a curt "no" 

when asked if he thought a quake 

II{Ould rum~le, be_ said !hat. Browning 

"may have done us a service" by calling attention' to the dangers of earthquakes and other natural disasters. 

Bond was beset-by about 20 report- ers hungry for a fresh face - ·even a 

U.S. senator's - after days of cover- ing a story that was turning stale. 

Bond also took pains to boost New 

Madrid's tourism and business potential, which must have sounded like 

tonic to Phillips and other 'city leaders, who admit that they worry about 

the effects of the Great Earthquake 

Scare on their community. · 

And Bond wasn't the only politician 

Wendi Brown/Post-Dispatch 

Gov. John Ashcroft speaking at a press conference Monday at a grain inspection office in New 

Madrid. Ashcroft said he feared some weren't taking earthquake preparations seriously. 
164 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO. EARTHQUAKE 

12-4-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

(Continued) 

touring New Madrid on its day of days. 

Gov. Jolin Ashcroft, who visited several communities in the Bootheel, also 

wasln town. 

Again, he faced a wall of eager reporters at a grain inspection office. "! 

fear some of this hype might cause some people not to take earthquake 

preparation seriously," he said. 

Phillips, a husky man who often 

speaks through a blue haze of cigar 

smoke, started Monday with an appearance on national .television. He 

has been mayor for more than six 

years. He also runs a fertilizer and 

chemical company. 

Phillips, a longtime Democrat, 

didn't mind the visit by two of the 

state's most prominent Republicans. It 

it draws attention to the risk of an 

earthquake, that's fine with him. 

Phillips, 64, has lived all his life 

over the New Madrid Fault, which 

takes its name from his community. 

He has grown accustomed to occasional trel!lbling. 

The fault stretches I 20 miles 

through Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky; it is considered to 

have the potential to be one of the 

most dangerous in the world. 

"! just hope we don't let all of the 

preparations we've made since 

Browning's forecast fall by the wayside," Phillips said. 

The mayor faced a steady stream of 

reporters at the New Madrid Historical Museum, where one St. Louis radio 

station broadcast a . morning show. 

Hap's Bar, a popular watering hole, 

was staked out by another station. 

There were stories enough for everyone. Joe Brasher, an aging guitarist wearing a red cowboy hat, 

strummed a ballad to his "Filipino 

Baby" on Main Street. An airplane did 

barrel rolls over the Mississippi River. 

And Pat Broyles, owner of P and J 

Crafts, hoped that residents would get 

over their uncertainty about the fu- ' 

ture in time to do their Christmas 

shopping. 

Robert R. Butterworth, a psycholo· 

gist from Los Angeles who specializes 

in "quake prediction stress," punched 

a nasty-looking green .puppet he 

called "!ben Browning." 

He said the puppet was a wonderful 

way for children to release their anxi· 

ety. He got a nice crowd, especially 

when he smacked away. 

The story of the big quakes that 

joltPd New Madrid in late 1811 and 

early 1812 is well known in these 

parts. Ben H. Ashley, the New Madrid 

County recorder of deeds, pulled out a 

record ·book used then, ·its bri.ttle 

pages still legible. He pointed out the 

last entry by a recorder named M. 

Amoureux. 

Dated the day after the worst of the 

Shocks in February 1812, it was an 

announcement that his ledger "hath 

been closed."- · 

"He cleared out,"-safd Ashley. 

So had most of Ashley's staff and 

other workers in the white-stone 

County Courthouse. Many had been 

given Monday and today ofl 

Ashley had taken the precaution of 

bolting down the files in his office's 

vault and reinforcing the windows -

just in case. Like most other residents 

here, he is fatalistic about the prospect of a quake. A big one is bound to 

happen sooner or later, the experts 

·say. . 

Van Sharp, ihe county clerk for. 40 

years, agreed. For his part, he is happy to see the tide of news people wash out of town. 

"I'd rathef we hadn't had the publicity," he said. "But I think all of this 

will be forgotten real quickly." 

Wind Blast Hurts Two In Family 

Camping Out To Escape 'Quake' 

By Donald E. Franklin 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

Dennis Loyd thought that he was 

protecting his family by moving it 

in his $16,000 cai!1per to a field 

away from their home in Campbell, Mo., in the Bootheel. 

Instead, wind rolled the camper 

three times, injuring Loyd's wife 

and son. 

"We tried to get away from the 

earthquake, and a tornado got us," 

said Dennis Loyd, 41. "It was an 

unusual experience that I'll never forget." 

Loyd said he moved his camper 

Friday night with five others in a 

circle away from power lines and 

trees as a precautionary measure. 

Loyd said the strong wind hit the 

area about 1:25 a.m. Monday. His 

wife, Sheila Loyd, 39, and a son, Danny, 16, were injured. Sheila 

Loyd was treated for ·a head 

bruises at Doctors Regional Medical Center in Poplar Bluff and released. Danny was admitted to the 

hospital with pelvic injuries. 

An older son, Dennis Loyd Jr., 

also suffered cuts and bruises 

when his camper overturned. Four 

of the campers withstood the high 

wind; 

Loyd said the occupants of the 

other campers returned to their 

homes after the incident. 

Campbell is about 60 miles west. 

of New Madrid. 

"! was worried and still am," 

Loyd said. "My wife said if she still 

had a trailer, she'd be out there 

tonight." 

TERRY 

HUGHES 

Shake, Richter 

And Trembley 

WHAT$ I_ N t. NAME? the poet 

asked.· A few good.Iaughs,l answered. When, 

that is, the earth and moon line up just 

righi _; iu1d you'• re "In the proper mood. 

, .. And what do you do while .waiting for 

~n~;~rtl)qU~k~?.!. few good laughs seemed like the answer there, too. 

. .Thumblnithrough the St. Louis area telephone bOOk. I stoppetl at page 900. There, l!ke an early Christmas present 

from the gods .of tine print, were nearly two full columns of Richters. I started 

dialing. 

"\Ve have a Scale, but we usually just 

stand on It to find out our current weight," cracked Daniel Richter of Shre~~bury. Jl{othing unusual registered 

ori that Richter's scale Monday morning. 

'· banlel '(ound hlinse!f preoccupied not with shaking gro)lnd but shaking trees. 

, :Tm jw;~ h~nglng out here, watching 

the wind blow," be said. "I might go out in a whl!e~n:d·f~inpt fate- maybe 

drive back and forth on [Highway]40, you know; 'the 'depressed secuon down- town. What the heck." 

).'b'oid i'n~~; Indeed. He was pretty 

blaSe about.the whole idea of an earthquake rocking the nation's midsection (news:sileak- ain't it grand?) and 

abotit'the' N~W:M~drid Fault In general. 

n!!lt!s there,'!.he said, sounding like 

he.migl\1 yavm. ','.$omeday it'll bit What 

can-you-do·?"· :, 

Well, you could do like the A. James 

Richter family of Chesterfield. 

: "We just took down all our pictures 

this weekend; moved some glass Items 

and such," said John Richter, i 7, who 

stayed home from school Monday with a cold . . 

.His folkS were at work. But they had ·stocked some emergency supplies at home and worked out a dfl>aster plan 

complete with a phone number that 

each family member could call to let the 

others know qe wiis a!! right 

John Rl.chter professed skepticism 

that he would· have to use the plan any 

time soon. He said his folkS seemed more serious about it. 

Humor them·. John. You know how 

parents are .. 

'Elizabeth RIChter, out In Ballwin, said 

she bad a couple· of bottles of water ·. tucked away In the closet But she added 

that she really didn't have time to worry 

much about an earthquake, what with 

her two oreschoo!-age children running around the house. 

As if on cue, her daughter started 

chirping, ~·Mommy; Mommy!" 

Out in StCharles, Liz Shake had to put 

up with obnoxious phone calls from relatives;·a5'well as' thiS stranger. Both her 

mother and sister called early In the day to ask "what's shaking" or It she was "shaking yet" 

But then, she's gotten used to that sort of thing sin~· marrying Harlan 

Shake I 0 years ago. As a single woman, she had acquired the nickname Strawberry. When slie married -well, you can guess what happened. 

In fact, these two Shakes aren't beyond mal\ing ll few bad puns 

themselves. · 

"We only wish we owned halt of Steak 

n Shake," Liz slii~:· ~ 

She didn't have any special plans for 

Q-Day. She and her-husband were out of town over the weekend; be bad to attend a disaster drill with his Army reserve unit. Liz Shake said she was behind on the housework because they didn't get 

back home until late Sunday night. 

Liz said she and her husband might 

really clean up It there was a whole Iotta 

shakin' going on. 

· "We own our own business- a janito· 

rial service." 

Just back from the beauty parlor and 

grocery store, Genelle Trembley was anything but In fact, one got the definite 

feeling that no earthquake would dare mess with her. 

"If we do have an earthquake, I'm 

really going to be mad," Trembley 

snapped. "l finished my Christmas shopping this last week, and anybody who 

thinks I!m going. to go out and do that 

again is: crazy. 

"As a·matter of fact, I was thinking 

about wrapping things today. I'll probably do that"' 

Having one's Christmas shop-. 

ping done by Dec. 3 is, I think; at least as earthshaking an accomplishment as a 6.5 quake. But Trembley said she's just .one of those people who has two choices - superorganized or total chaos. 

"I don't live well with chaos. That's 

why I've decided against the earthquake. It's not going to happen," she 

said. 

Of greater concern, she said, was how 

much damage the few snowflakes she 

encountered between her car and the store had done to the new hairdo. 

But she was not terribly worried about 

the snow, either. She grew up in a rural 

community In northwestern Missouri, 

she said, and knew a thing or two about 

snow. 

"In the part of the country I grew up 

In, you smell snow if it's coming- and It 

doesn't smell like snow," she said. 

She laughed, but I think she really meant II. And I believed her. 

Next tl!lie I want a forecast, I'll call 

Trembley. Sure, scientists might dispute 

her methods. But she's not making any 

money off her predictions- and she 

has a great laugh, 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 165 

Nothing Shaking 

Schools, Shopping Centers Have Slow Day 

By Tom Uhlenbrock trying Edwards' drink called "The 

Of the Pott-Diapatch Staff Earth," a mixture of va'nilla pudding, 

Sue Ann Kirst felt the tremors, but Bailey's Irish Cream, Chambord (a 

they were from brisk wind that raspberry liqueur) anll. chocolate 

swayed the top of the Gateway Arch chips, !!E!rved witli a spoon. - not from Iben Browning's forecast- At the Hi-Pointe Cafe, six people sat 

ed earthquake. at the bar, while another four hovered 

"I s&ld we should all get T-shlrts around a pool table. The bartender 

that say: 'I survived the Arch on insisted that the bar was never busy 

Quake Day,'" said Kirst, a nurse visit- until about 10 p.m. · !rig Monday from Scottsdale, Ariz. "I was a little nervous all day about 

Monday was the bull's-eye of the it, because I live on the 14th floor of an five-day target period Browning gave aP.artment buildin~.;· said Jamie Williln his forecast of a 50-50 chance for a ford. "But I'm OK now." · Bill Reyland said he had never bebig quake on the New Madrid lieved the prediction, but he had 

Faull · · packed up some bottled water, blanAlthough exjlerts have called kets, medical supplies and a pup tent. 

Browning's prediction poppycock, But Reyland hadn't brought any of his 

many St. Loulsans decided that supplies to the party. 

Monday was a good day to stay - Kelly Schaper, manager of the Top 

home. of the Riverfront. the revolving res: Even the attendance at a CC)uple taurant atop the Clarion Hotel, said 

of earthquake parties -Monday business was down Monday night. 

night was down. Only about SO peo- "It's looking pretty bleak as tar as pie were at a well-advertised parfY reservations," she said. "We.have one ilt Blueberry H111; a bar In Unlvef- tor a party of two, the Rumbles. We're 

slty City~ il.nd inosf of the customers debating whether that's a joke or not." were regulars. School attendance was down, drasti- ~My boss, Joe Edwards, said we cally in several districts, and some would have had a better crowd if the shopping centers were nearly 

weather bad been better," said nian- deserted. 

ager Jili Pcisey. "Maybe people are "Traffic was definhely lighter," just tired of the earthquake." said Cpl. Ben Flowers of the Missouri 

Edwards had organized an "Eartb- Highway Patrol office in St. Louis 

shaker!" pinball tournament in the County. "I would think a few people 

bar's window, Introduced two some- took the day oft." 

JWhat unsettling drinks, compiled a jist Kirst, the nurse from Arizona, and 

of 150 earthquake-related songs and · two friends found no wait in the line 

provid.ed earthquake helmets tor his for . the tram ride to the top of the 

employees. Arch. 

"I took ott my hard hat," Posey said. "It's less than halt of what our nor- "lt hurt my head." mal business is," said Stuart West, a Michael Kanyuck, il contractor by supervisory ranger with the National 

day, popped into Blu,eberry Hill in a Park Service. 

kelly green hard hat and a lime green "A lot of visitors on Monday are T-shirt that read, "Bring On The school groups," West said. "We had 

Quake!" He said he had invited 120 three groups scheduled and two can- friends over Saturday night tor a "Pig celed. Normally, we'd have six to 

Out Before We Dig Out• earthquake nine, but teachers picked today as a party and that he was about partied day not to visit the Arch." 

out. Crowds were spotty at department "I made 100 of those drinks with stores. Union Station looked as if the 

Jello and vodka, and they were gone last train had pulled out. 

in less than an hour," Kanyuck said. ·The Athens Cafe at the station had . No wonder· he had no illterest in few takers tor its earthquake chili: 

12-4-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

"One bowl and you can survive 

anything." 

"Terrible day," said Myron Parker, 

manager of the station's Rocky Roco- co pizza place. "I'd say this is the worst 

day - other than a snowstorm - that 

we've ever had. We never had our lunch rush." 

That was fine with the women from 

the . Lafayette Older Adults Program 

from the Rockwood School District. 

They found no crowds to battle on their annual shopping trip downtown, 

and were untazed by predictions of 

pending disaster. 

"Have we had it yet?" chuckled 

Ruth Rose of Manchester. "Honey, at our age, we defy everything," added Frances Herdliska of 

Ballwin. · · ~ . · 

Virginia Hiscox said the group's membe·rs voted on whether to ignore 

Browning and shop. "Thirty-five out of 

44 came, so ·we had a few chickens in 

there," she said. 

While some schools reported at~ 

ten dance rates only slightly down - 5 

percent in Parkway schools - city 

schools were hit hard. 

At elementary schools in St. Louis, 

attendance normally is 94 percent, but 

it ranged from 50 to 70 percent Monday. High schools average 83 percent but rariged from 45 to 93 Monday. "Apparently, some people were very concerned," said Charles Burgess, a spokesman for the city schools. 

"I suspect we'll see some recovery 

tomorrow." 

In Jefferson County, a district official said he was "quite shocked" to 

find only two-thirds of the students in 

school. St. Charles, Lincoln and War- ren counties also reported poor attendance. · John Lawrence, superint~ndent of 

the Troy school district, said the district normally has about 130 of Its 

2,900 students absent on a typical day. Six hundred were missing Monday. "We had no real anticipation of this 

large of an absentee rate," be said. · William A. Gullick, superintendent 

of schools in Marissa, asked a committee of parents and district employees 

to monitor their dogs. cat and farm 

animals tor strange behavior before 

he'decided whether to eancel classes. Classes were held Moriday, but Guliick said they ~ould be. called off later 

this week if the animals act up . . "One of the people on the commit· 

tee is a farmer," Gulllck said. "He was the last. person we checked with early 

this morning, and everything was 

OK.'' 

Gullick is a student of Asian culture 

and explained his theory this way: 

"You·know bow we are sometimes. It 

it doesn't have the word 'science' on it, 

we're a little skeptical. Look how long 

it took medicine to recognize that acu- puncture has some positive effects." 

Although hospitals reported no postponements of surgeries, doctors and 

dentists said their patient load was minimal. 

· "It isn't so much-canceling-as peo- ple refusing to take today·tonppointments..:... I couldn't give it away;" sai~ 

Judy WaJsh, office manager for 0(. 

Leslie Rich, a dentist in Kirkwood. Attendance was about normal at noon Mass at the St. Louis Cathedral. 

Leo Putney said his visit was not 

prpmpted by fears of an earthquake. 

"No way. I don't believe in that 

nonsense," said Puiney, a driver tor 

Yellow Cab. "Some of my passengers were saying they were going to leave 

town. It has been the major topic of 

converSation." 

One popular rumor making the 

rounds promoted the "numerology" 

viewpoint . of Browning's prediction. The rumor bad it that a quake would occur at 4:56 a.m. or p.m. on Monday 

at a magnitude of 7.8 on the Richter 

scale. · Those numbers, when· combined 

With the numbers for the third day Of 

the y~r ·in the 12th month of 1990 

gave this sequence: l-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-0. When ·4:56 p:m. 11pproached Monday, at least two employees of the St. 

Louis County Election Board. took va· cation time to leave an hour early, 

citing the county's deteriorating park· ing garage. 

Patricia Corrigan, Thom Gross, Pat 

Gauen, Robert Manor, Virgil Tipton 

and ·Leo Fitzmauriee of the Post-Dispatch stliff provided information for 

this story. 

Seismography: All Is Quiet On·The Ex:pert Front 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

A watched seismograph never quakes. The drum recorders went 'round and 'round 

Monday at . the St. Louis University s~lsmology 

lab, but they pfcl\ed up 1\0 earthquakes that could 

be attributed to· !ben Browning's discounted 

quake forecast for the New Madrid Fault. 

"It didn't happen," said Sean-Thomas Morris· 

sey, techntcal director of St. Louis University'! 

geophysical observatory. The university runs 1. 

network of 60 seismographs that sense the slight· 

est tremor in the fault. "Nothing's going on," Morrissey said. "We're 

overdue for even our normal background even.ts." 

Browning forecast a 50-50 chance of a quake 

· measuring 6.5 to 7.5 on the Richter scale between point quakes were recorded- allln the southern 

Saturday and Wednesday. A national panel of hemisphere. Brownlrig predicted quakes on the 

quake experts found the forecast "scientifically New Madrid Fault and a few other spots in the 

invalid." . northern hemisphere. . · . · The forecast Is based on Browning's view that a Nothing over,magnltude 6 was recorded. 

27-year maximum in tidal ·pull by the sun and Meanwhile, St •Louis University geophysicist moon could trigger a quake. The peak pull oc- Robert Hermann went about a normal day's work 

curred at 5 p.m. Sunday. ..:... grading paperS, preparing tor class and conter- "Once that point is past, no earthquake could be ring with colleagues and students on the study of 

associated with the maximum;" Morrissey said. earthquakes. One notable difference was a tuxBy Monday evening, the National Earthquake edo with royal blue cummerbund and bow tie. Information Centet In Golden, Colo., had report- He wore the outfit to the lab's "fake quake" 

ed only one earthquake above 5 on the Richter party, The festivities included an . earthquakescale on Monday. That 'l"as a 5.1 near . Tonga resistant house made from cookies, a cake of the 

Island in the South Pacific, about 1:40 a.m. St. United States split down the middle and "dirt 

Louis time. · . , · cake" · made from crushed chocolate ·cookies, 

Since 12:01 a.m. Saturday, only three other 5- whipped cream. arid candy worms. 
166 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTIIQUAKE 

12-5-90 

Riverfront Times (St. Louis) 

Reprinted by J?E!rmission 

76 PAGES) 

So did the earth move for you? 

It did for the media and for local government, from 

the moment that climatological crackpot 'ben 

Browning found a Midwestern audience for his bizarre 

seismology. 

For them, the prediction of a Dec. 3 qunke (give or 

take 48 hours) on the New Madrid fault and the panic 

that ensued were nothing short of titillating. There 

were scores of earthquake-preparedness videos, fulldress drills and pull-out sections. Guns and batteries 

and bottled water sold like there was, literally no 

tomorrow. The boys in the fire departments parked 

the big red trucks outside to keep the firehouses from 

crumbling upon them. John Ashcroft trudged ~rim y 

along the fault line, while scores of satellite dishes 

bounced the message of doom from the still earth to 

continued on page 10 
APPENDIX C-11-IE PREDICfiON IN TilE PRESS 167 

EARTH QUACKS 

The great quake of 90 scored a zero on the Richter 

scale, proving that /ben was as terrible as the 

hypesters who took him seriously. The Midwest had 

gotten stupid for nothing. And it wasn't New 

Madrid's fault 

continued from cover the heavens to the still earth. 

Let's face it. The media and the pols 

were a big easy for the quacks and 

maniacs. But was it as good for you as 

it was for them? 

And more important: Do you still 

respect them in the morning? 

Hardly. 

T

he facts about Browning - climatologist for corporate 

boards and earthquake hobbyist - have been out since 

October. 

Browning has never aCcurately predicted an earthquake. His theory of 

tidal motion triggering them is 

described by the National Earthquake 

Prediction Evaluation Council as "theoretically imflausible." David Stewart 

- director o the state's Center for 

Earthquake Studies and Browning's 

main supporter c- believes in psychic 

phenomena and once had a psychic 

help in an earlier (and off-base) quake 

prediction in North Carolina. 

Add to this the fact that the chances 

of the kind of large earthquake that 

would cause serious damage in St. 

Louis are minuscule for the next 10 

years and slim over the next 50 years 

(see charts), and that local earthquake 

experts like Washington University's 

Douglas Wiens and St. Louis' Brian 

Mitchell have emphasized the utter 

unpredictability of earthquakes. 

But despite the general availability 

of this information, public officials still 

held drills, closed schools and parked 

the fire trucks outside. People called in 

sick, canceled dental appointments, 

even went to visit family. The least that 

most companies did was pass out 

information. Some stocked ue on thousands of dollars of supplies. (See related story.) 

Why? 

"The media are having fun in New 

Madrid covering a non-story," one 

local media personality says, "but 

there are peo~le out there who are really scared. ' 

The Wednesday morning quarterbacking on the Great Midwestern 

Earthquake Scare has begun, and the 

fingers are pointing at the media. The 

"Commentary" page in Sunday's PostDispatch published an opinion piece by Oberlin College biology professor 

Michael Zimmerman, blaming the 

media for whippin~ up quake hysteria in an "ignorant sQCtety," and local 

experts put the media in their sights. 

"The media wanted to see it as a scientific debate," Wiens 

told a Society of 

Professional 

journalists (SPJ) 

gatherin~ on Sunday. 'Only there 

was no debate; they 

gave credibility to a 

prediction that 

should have had no 

credibility." 

Channel 5 meteorologist Bob Richards 

is strident about the 

ludicrousness of 

Browning's prediction. 

"!feel good that 

we didn't run earthquake-preparedness 

specials," Richards 

says. "The Browning 

forecast is so ridiculous. Why give out 

earthquake-preparedness informa- tion when the 

chances of your 

KMOV's Larry Conners told his audiences that aliens had land- house catching fire ed in Nw Madrid are much greater?" 

12-5-90 

Riverfront Times (Continued) 

The media could (and do) argue that journalistic balance requires that 

both sides be reported in an equal and 

impartial fashion. But when a story 

like this one grows to such proportions 

in the public imagination, is it the duty 

of the media to be more scientific than 

journalistic? 

William Allen, the Post's science 

writer and main reporter on the earthquake story, has been wrestling with 

that question, and concedes that the 

media (including himself) do bear 

some responsibility for letting the 

Browning-mania ' get out of hand." 

"I've had half-sleepless nights over 

(it)," Allen says about his Aug. 26 article on Brownmg, the prediction and 

scientific reaction. "[started by noting 

that scientists disa~ee with him. 

Obviously itwasn t enough." . 

In retrospect, Allen says, he wishes 

that he had another week to work on 

that particular story. 

"But it was not a simple case of an 

obvious quack," Allen added. "This 

man had the support of major players 

who insisted that Browning had a good track record." 

"To dismiss Paine Webber and all 

those people who subscribe to his service," Allen co[lcluded, "amounts to 

calling all of those people stupid." 

But Browning's predicted window 

for an earthquake is over, and a whole 

bunch of people look stupid. But the 

questions remain: What more (or less) 

could the media have done? Was it 

their fault, New Madrid's fault or 

everybody's fault? 

FINDING FAULT Most of the media say it's not their 

fault; they just live here. 

"Sure we're taking it seriously," 

says KTVI-TV (Channel2) news director Bill Berra. "You can say what you 

want, but (Browning) is a respected 

scientist. I don't want to be in a position to be pooh-poohing this. I know 

this much: Do you really want to be 

the fire chief with your equipment 

caught (inside)?" 

Despite the clear emphasis on 

Browning's fallacious prediction, Berra 

fell back to the media party line, saying 

he thinks the media "hasJlayed it straight. They've reporte what's 

going on." 

KMOV-TV (Channel4) news director AI Holzer also thinks that the 

media have successfully straddled the 

line between alarming and alerting. 

"There have been a lot of people 

who say the media have caused some 

of the fear and paranoia, but I think 

we've been useful in alerting the pub- lic. The New Madrid Fault is one of the 

most active faults in the country. What 

we're doing is acknowledging that." 

(ChannelS news director Cliff 

Abromats did not return calls.) 

But the local media are culpable of 

more than a mere" acknowledgment" 

of the Great Midwestern Earthquake 

Scare. It's been more like a 

Nabokovian obsession. To wit: 

• KSDK-TV (ChannelS) ran The Big 

One: The Great Los Angeles Earthquake 

- a graphically and scientifically 

absurd miniseries depicting a major 

earthquake. The series ended with a 

trailer saying that a big earthquake 

was predicted for this area. 

• Channel 4 ran a half-hour, primetime earthquake-preparedness special 

hosted by its meteorologist, Mike 

Nelson. • KETC-TV (Channel 9) put together its own earthquake-preparedness 

video and marketed it through 

Schnucks. 

• Channel 2 did a special miniseries 

on earthquakes with Donn johnson, 

and also brought a seismograph into 

its studio. 

•The Post put together a 20-pa9.e 

"Earthquake Preparedness Guide' for 

its Oct. 28 issue. Editor William Woo 

hoped readers would find it "helpful 

and reassuring." 

And I'm not mentioning all the stories on New Madrid, the radio contests 

and the pool of personnel assigned to 

the stories. The Post had five staffers in 

New Madrid over the prediction period. The TV channels sent their best 

reporters- S's Mike Owens, 4's Russ 

Mitchell, 2's Paul Schankmann - to 

New Madrid for updates. Christian 

radio station WCBW (104.9 FM) converted to what they called an "allearthquake format," playing a song 

called "Shake" over and over. KSD 

(93.7 FM) sent its "Breakfast Club" 

down to New Madrid. 

Post radio critic Darrell McWhorter 

said his impression of KSD' s 

"Breakfast Club" show in New Madrid 

was that j.C. Corcoran and joe Mason 

"did as much as anybody could expect." 

"With the slim chance that the 

ground was going to shake," 

McWhorter says, "all they could do was be silly." 
168 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTifQUAKE 

12-5-90 

Riverfront Times (Continued) 

On the plus side, McWhorter adds, 

the silliness "did diffuse a lot of the tension." 

By Monday evening, when it was 

apparent that nothing was going to happen, everybody's tension level had 

dipped. The late newscasts were filled 

with bits of silliness - guys strum- ming guitars and interviews with partygoers whose main statement on Iben 

Browning was "I ben drinking." 

Channel 2 even had a precious bit 

where what appeared to be a child 

psychologist was exhorting child'""n to punch a green doll. 

By the end of the day, I think every- one was punch-drunk. 

Post TV critic Eric Mink says that the 1V stations "got caught in a vicious 

cycle. Even in debunking Browning, 

they've had to repeat the previous 

assertion," Mink says. 

Mink went even further in his 

Sunday TV column, saying, "Initial 

reports stirred public concern, which 

turned into public reaction as coverage 

of the dispute continued." 

In general, however, Mink says that 

the TV stations were doomed to be 

drawn into the "vicious earthquakereporting cycle." 

That cycle could easily be extended to the radio and print media as well. 

KSDK's Richards complains that "all 

we've been doing is covering people 

panicking." 

And even the critics' hands aren't 

entirely clean. Mink ripped into NBC's 

The Big One before it aired, revealing 

the plot line, offering alternative viewing suggestions and warning parents 

to keep their kids away, in some strong - maybe too-strong - language. 

Richards' miniseries debunking 

Browning not only coincided with The 

Big One, but also had some sensational 

earthquake footage to promote it. 

What I found in my review of the 

media coverage of the quake is that 

everybody's got what Sartre called les 

mains sales - dirty hands. 

ANATOMY 

OFA 

CRACKPOT 

As the spirited discussion of media 

coverage at the SP) meeting Sunday 

proved, everybody in the media has 

got an opinion on whether the highly 

public education about earthquakes 

was worth the panic. A county official 

admitted to using the widespread interest to educate. 

"Before the prediction, we tried to get the message out," Dan Freet, 

deputy director of the St. Louis County 

Office of Emergency Management, told 

the SP) audience. "Nobody but the Post 

had much interest." 

"After the prediction, there was no middle stage,' Freet continued. "We went from apathy to absolute panic." But, Freet concluded, the the 

Browning prediction did help in making the public aware. · "When this idea came to the forefront," he says, "I was in a quandary. U I stand up on TV and say there's no 

credence to this, would I be diminishing the interest? Our concern was that 

this was an important message. If we 

didn't take advantage of the public's ear, we might not get it again." 

Browning's fringe science the best 

way? 

given." 

At Sunday's panel, Wiens seemed 

genuinely angered by the seriousness 

with which Browning was taken. 

Such thinking obviously filtered 

down to the local media, who seized 

every available chance to "educate." But was an education based on 

Richards and Wiens don't think so. 

"I think a tremendous wrong was 

done," says Richards, who called his 

series debunking Browning "Faulty 

Reasoning." "Not enough press was 

given to those who debunked 

Browning. Not enough attention was 

''There's a long hi sto~ of crackpot 

earthquake predictions,' Wiens 

argues, citing false predictions of 

earthquakes in Peru, earthquakes due 

to the "jupiter Effect" and the revival 

FEAR AND 

TREMBLING 

Apex - 11NO comment." 

Ralston Purina - "A lot of work done around the square," 

plus information on preparedness, but no drills. 

McDonnell Douglas - "No specific earthquake prepara-

. tion going on right now. Some employees are bringing little 

I n the course of examining the media's role in the Great · disa. ster it~ to work:'' Doesn't give;a l,ot of credence to the 

M1dwestern Earthquake Scare, we were curious as to Dec. 3 predtcbons, but posted mformahon on what to do .m 

how it filtNed down to local governments, hospitals, any disaster. · · 

hotels, shopping malls Jnd companies. We didn't get 

much in the way of surprises - for the most part the Monsanto - "We have been doing preparations since one 

answers were earnest, sober and perched on a limb year ago. The prediction has given us added impetus to get 

between" concerned" and "panicked." We think it reveals things done." Distributed and pOsted information and had 

that no matter how deeply the earthquake hype got into drills. "We believe it will happen sometime but notnecespeople's heads, they invariably turned their face toward sarily Mond~y." 

public relations. (All quoted statements were !Jlade by / 

spokespersons for those questioned about their e:irthquake 

preparedness.) 

Clayton Fire Depart.ment - Moved their personnel to the 

Community Center. Moved their lire engines out of the 

· Ma!'sion House Cent~r Apartments .-:' Provided an informational brochure." ·. •' ' ' 

engine house. 

~'f i ;; Plaza Squ~r~ Apartm~rits .-c t:Jo ~~rthqvake:&~th~al kits, 

Fenton Fire Department - Made arrangements to pul)lp' , . . drill or info~~tion. · '· .> ''(;.;:. : . ,;;:.-: . .• ··: 

fuel in case of. disaster. Trained its persqnnel in earthqua~~ , ·.. _ _ 4 

• -.,, . ,,, ·'' i ' i!;~-,~-· .. ·~· 1 

measures. . X ; h~ "¥11;5 1 Pf>int~ ;:;-·Made t!'eir resi,d,en\S a~p:e b. 

. i·*rr:~phlets .. :;·_;; , . , .. ·· ~~:~, ~.-~?H' . St. Ann Fire Department - "Besides laugh at it? .No, . · •. · '" •. v . ·' , ing out of tjle ordinary." D~~a,liviere P)ace - H~da P?fic~ ()ffj~~i-;c?!Be an~ give a 

. . . . lec~te and ~~o had a nei.ghb,Orl(ood~ !l\e~ting : !l31~ they 

Belleville Fire Department - Parked its equipment out- " did.not give qut information, be<;ause in" !he evi'IIt ~hat . 

side. Some personnel took equip!"ent h()rJ:\eWitl"l them.' '' ··~· ':. S()',!'_e.thin hapP';", they will. be·held acC<;>!ffitable in 

St. Anthony's -' "As a ho~pi tal, we'r~ t~:~f/~~~:~ :.::]~', , ~ .. ; , , . : ;~~';~~f ~er~ l( <iut.' '"'

1 

people. We're r~ally alwayseeady for;any e!f>ergens)r ~Sl~!i~'I:o:z~ ~ Circ!ll~ !etRed <:r~ss p~9kag~~ j1Ild told . 

We're basically a self-contained city." :. · .. 'J;t"' p~ople to h~V¢ fla~h1Jsll.ts ~~a:blankr!S ~~ ~~fwere not 

.. ~·· . womed allo~,tone-stoJY, bO.%!!~'~g~ ;;' ~$y're W()Od strucSt. Mary's - Sponsored programs ~r employees, incl d ru:e l'QI prone to ~tehtial damage like brick or ·· 

ing a movie ap.d pamphl~ts. 11 lt's a re:a}ity-~6w +it'S--a' /§~ stru~t~~~; .... ~. <>•'?~ .• ~·~:·'+~. ~ ··. · ,. '· · 

probability. We need to prepare"fo~ it just like we keep f ., · . • , 

extinguishers on hand in case of a fire." ~enry VIIi -" "N!', nothing. I g~ess w~'re pretty ;Tiuch safe 

~. ·. ~ ·~·"<' . ~<:''3:· --"';- ~7f~:~ ~a;;.~a:'~ ~ :.::;; __ ·;·A--· .·_:- .,_ .. ;~ .. ,;<j. .·_:~Tr Barnes - "It's business as usual. We offered home earth""'>''' :· ._. .: ·., ·. .. . c ;·. . : ' . : . : . ,: . 

quake-preparation classes in Noveq1ber:" . ' ', '/Cl'\"lm - .Heli:f..trt.o seminars, h11t no sufvival kits ~ drills. 

, • \, j. -o;ir~;,;:,.~ .- , ;/;:, \::· · :;/'<;,.~::~,,;~~'\ ;_ : •. : . St. John's Me~cy - Produced 12,000 bOoklets on earth: .,;·''" "·N<?:thwest-Plaza - •N<JtU:ied all tenants, and made sure gas 

quake preparedness for. the home. Also developed 9ne· .• ;... .. ~al~~~ a!}d. ~ther such things were;s<i<#e .• Posted inf~rrna- master earthquake pla.n - a multifaceted plan basedon . lion .. ; , . '· · , · .:: 

California hospitals. "It was emphasizeq. that Mr. :'};:"• · 

Browning's prediction has now been proven to be bogus." W~b~ie~ University- Made information packets to send to 

Southwestern Bell - Passed out pamphlets and gave training to employees. "Really, our preparations are not c"entering on Dec. 3." 

General Dynamic - Gave out refrigerator ~agnets w~th 

earthquake information to employees. Encouraged employ• 

ees to bring in water and clothes from home. "'We've done 

quite a bit while trying to keep it low key." " ' 

May Company - Put out a pamphlet, "Emergency 

Procedures," but had no earthquake survival kits or drills. 

"I'm on the 13th floor, so I hope I'll be at home then, if it 

happens." 

all employees: '<We used the opportunity to plan for all dis-

·· ~st~tS."· ,, 

UM'St. Louis - "We've integrated the earthquake concern 

into. an overall preparedness plan." Also posted earthquake 

information. f:' 

:rh~ Adam's Mark, Washington University, Chesterfield 

·~·' Mall, StLouis University, A.G. Edwards and Schnucks did 

·n·o.t return RFf calls. 

C~111_pjled by (\tPY B: Watzke, Sam Ha~anel and jason Guthrie 

Barton. ., •· 
Probability of 

Major 

Earthquake 

in the New 

Madrid Fault source: Memphis State University 

of Nostradamus predictions in the last 

10 r,ears. . 

. 'It's a lack of ssientific knowledge," 

Wiens continues. A general credulity 

at Browning's predictive record. He is 

claiming to do something no legitimate 

SCientiSt can do, With no background in 

that field." 

So how did this crackpot prediction take hold? It's a question that vexes the 

Post's Allen, who took the SPJ audience 

step by step through the Post's coverage of Browning's prediction. 

The two major events in the Post's 

coverage came on Aug. 26 and Oct. 21 

- a span almost two months apart. 

The Aug. 26 Page 1 story on Browning 

was the first extended look at 

Browning and his theory, obtained by 

Allen during an interview. with the 

subject in New Mexico. 

Allen and I sat down after the panel 

discussion and went through the story. 

The writer pointed out numerous spots 

in the piece where Browning was disputed, and described the difficulties he 

had in interviewing the ailing earthquaker. Allen's article managed to 

gather up and clarify a number of the 

inconsistencies in what had been, until 

that time, a murky prediction. 

I agreed that the a;ticle didn't support Browning, but couldn't help but 

notice the pull quote and photo of 

Browning that also appeared on Page 

1. In it, Browning tells people that 

whether or not they believe in. his prediction, they should take care of their 

children. Allen agreed that the pull 

quote - in larger type and set off from 

the body of the article - didn't help ' matters any. 

The other big story came almost two months later, on Oct. 21, when Allen 

wrote another front-page story, this 

time on the background of Center for 

Earthquake Studies director David 

Stewart. Before Allen's article 

appeared, Stewart was the source of 

choice among those who wanted to 

make the earthquake story (as Wiens suggested) a "scientific debate." 

Stewart was a man alone - the only 

scientist anyone could find that would 

support Browning's prediction. 

Stewart is also the director of the 

sta te's earthqu ake cen ter (which is 

affiliated with the Missouri State 

Emergency Management Agency), 

APPENDIX C-lHE PREDICTION IN lHE PRESS 169 

c: 

£ "' 

~ 15 years 

and, one would think, a trusted 

authority on quakes. 

And trust him the local media did, 

for a few crucial months. Then Allen's 

second big story broke. 

Allen's Oct. 21 front-page piece 

trumpeted Stewart's less-than-stellar 

background and his belief in psychic 

phenomena - abelief that puts him 

squarely out of the scientific mainstream. 

"Psychic phenomena is a fact," 

Stewart told Allen. 

Allen also found out that Stewart 

had not only predicted a quake that 

would register 8.0 on the Richter scale 

(a massive quake) in North Carolina in 

1976, but flew in psychic Clarissa . 

Barnhardt to help predict it. Stewart 

told Allen it was "ancient history," but 

the incident did help deny Stewart 

tenure at the University of North Carolina. 

Allen said that "no one told us until 

it was too late that David Stewart was 

on the scientific fringe," adding that 

the story "seriously damaged Stewart's 

credibility." 

(Channel4 featured Stewart in its 

earthquake coverage on Monday.) 

Coupled with the announcement 

three days earlier that the National 

Earthquake Prediction Evaluation 

Council (NEPEC) considered 

Browning's prediction "implausible," 

the Stewart story should have been the 

death knell of the Great Midwestern 

Earthquake Scare. 

The wheels of hysteria, however, 

were already in motion. The two 

months of "debate" had planted the 

earthquake seed within the head of the 

public imagination, and it sprouted 

quicker than jack's Beanstalk. 

Richards - like Wiens and 

Zimmerman - argues that the persistent earthquake preparedness and 

argument/counterargument, even in 

the face of a thoroughly debunked prediction, created the stir. 

"What kind of message does it 

send," Richards asks, citing the Posr s 

pull-out section as an example, "when 

you do an earthquake-preparedness 

guide at this time? What message is 

that sending to an uninformed public? 

The public's saying, 'Gee, maybe they 

know something I don't know."' 

12-5-90 

Riverfront Times (Continued) 

"Undaunted 

by lack of 

expertise," 

Zimmerman 

writes, "the 

media promote 

whomever 

they can 

find." 

"The early 

Post-Dispatch 

coverage was 

less accurate," 

Wiens concluded. "Since 

NEPEC, their 

coverage has 

been responsible." 

It is important to note 

that the Post's coverage since 

the Stewart 

story has concentrated 

more on 

debunking 

Browning, including a Nov. 27 story 

by E.). Porter that cast a long shadow 

of doubt on Browning's tidal-forces 

theory. 

"I can understand why Professor 

Wiens feels that Browning's claims 

were highlighted," Allen told his listeners on Sunday. But Allen also 

argued (along with others in attendance) that the information needed to 

be reported. 

"It smacks of elitism," Allen argued 

later, "to say that we should keep this from the 'poor boobs."' 

PANIC 

PATROL 

The "poor boobs" didn't do well with 

the information they did get from the 

media. To wit: all the wackiness along 

the New Madrid Fault this week. 

Part of the problem was all the coverage given to the wackiness. When 

Channel 4' s Robin Smith, for example, 

proclaimed that Browning's projected 

window for an earthquake could be 

"five of the most dangerous days in 

Missouri history" on last Saturday's 

newscast, that isn't quite a debunking. 

The problem, of course, is compounded by the reaction of local officials who should have known better. If 

the media sent out a mixed signal with 

its coverage, the elected officials Who 

ran earthquakedrills on Dec. 2 (including St. Louis City, St. Louis County 

and St. Charles County), parked the 

firetrucks outside the station and canceled the air-siren· tests were suckered 

in by the bad science - setting a bad 

example for everyone. 

And one can't help but think that 

the bad science, and the public's inability to distinguish it from good science, 

is at the root of the problem. 

Allen's Post pieces on the earth- · 

quake were carefully reasoned, chockfull of detail and very complicated all 

at once. A nation obsessed with astralogy and UFOs can't be expected to 

grasp tidal forces and seismology, no 

matter how graphically it's presented. 

And television, while it's become 

the main font of information in our 

society, is not adept at presenting sci~ 

ence. 

"It's a visual medium," Allen said 

on Sunday. "So you've llot pictures of 

the (San Francisco) Manna District 

burning and cars going off bridges 

while tile voiceover says '!ben 

Browning is full of crap."' 

Holzer, too, admits that TV isn't the 

ideal place to convey such "complex issues": 

"TV news tends to capsulize. 

Newspapers have time and are 

designed for that." 

A big step in that direction was 

taken by KSDK's Richards on his 

Monday-night weathercast. Richards 

used colorful graphics to compare the 

3 millibars of pressure that the earth is 

subjected to during Browning's "earthquake windoW' with the 2(}.millibar 

force that a cold frmit like the one that 

passed through Sunday night creates. 

"So; Richards said, "under 

Browning's theory, we'd have an 

earthquaKe every time a cold front 

came through." 

The other channels stuck to their 

quiet seismographs. 

The bottom line is that science is a 

complicated business. Its experts can't 

agree when life begins, let alone where and when a quake will strike. In 

school, you're taught that scientists use 

the scientific method. They formulate 

hypotheses, test them, and use the 

knowledge that they get not to prove 

anything, but to formulate more 

hypotheses. 

If the Midwest's first grand experiment in earthquake coverage failed, it 

doesn't mean that the media should 

give up the ghost. What the failed 

experiment should do is refine the 

local media's journalistic method -

particularly its method of explaining 

the unsexy parts of science in a clear 

and responsible manner. • 
170 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

12-5-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Aftershock 

Earth Didn't Move, So Booth eel 

Starts Return To Normal Life 

By Peter Hernon 

Of the Po1t·DI1patch Staff . 

NEW MADRID, Mo. - With the 

clock about to run out on a discredited 

earthquake prediction, children are 

returning to their classrooms today as residents ponder the aftershocks to their community. · 

The 2,.00 pupils In the New Madrid 

Co,unty sch.ool system know what !~en 

Browning's widely assailed' forecast · cost them -:- two days qf idst school· 

work tltat the){ wlllltave to 111ake up. J 

It's not so efisy for their parents an 

others to as5ess repercussions In New 

Madrid, a small Bootheel community 

that a glbnt quake put on the selsmologiCj!l map pearly 180 years ago. 

Browning's prediction of a 50·50 

chance of a1 major eartbq!Jake could 

have endunng consequMces, some fear. 

"It.'s going to burt us In the long 

run," said Clement Cravens, editor of 

the Weekly Record, clrciiJatlon 1,500. "It's going to leave a big ted mark on the map that there's an accident walt· 

lng to happen dowh,ltere." 1 Cravens and otltet residents thougltt 

the national media hoopla - otlters 

call It hysteria - over Browning's 

prediction would damage the city's 

economic future. "We can joke about 

It now," he said. "But In the next two or three years, there's no telling what 

the result of all tills will be." 

For more titan a week, New Madrid 

tJ~cam!i_ a fi,asltpoln\ of hel'o'll beCAI!Se, or Browning's forecast, \'{Dich was 

rouncily ctl.tlclzed by s~!entlsts. Neo,:er, 

.sc.111e joked,hn\le so mlln:( reporte,d so mucltabout so little.. , · 

The prediction' by Browning, a ell· 

matdjoglst from New1 Mexico, ran 

fro "I Saturday through today. He 

clalrped that unusually strong Udal · 

forces caused by tile alignment of the sun and moon might trigger a·quake In 

that period. · 

instead~ Browning triggered a, me· dla ln!laslon. Droves of r~porters from 

as fnr afield as quaky Ja'pan checked 

Into the area's motels. There were reporters from such clUes as New 

York, Wasltlngton, Baltimore, Cltlcago 

and Des Moines, Iowa. 

Sightseers flocked to Main Street, 

which ends abruptly at the Mississippi 

River levee. 

City officials were unable to say ·what this ebb and now woutd mean to 

the local economy. But at the town Historical Museum, near tbe levee, 

VIrginia Carlson said T -shirts and oth· 

er souvenirs were In short supply. On 

Monday, D·Day for Browning's, prediction, the museum restocked Its 

sales shelves tbree times, Carlson 

said. · 

Don Uoyd, tb'e city administrator, 

At New Madrid County 

Central High School, Jim 

Mauk prepared for 

today's return of about 

900 students. 

•n' MAY 13E eome•·tttne belor. 

; • tlew Madtld recovere;.,.,Pega 3~ 

doubted that "the circus" - as he 

likes to call It- would bave any long- term effect. "It's been an Interesting 

diversion for a couple of weeks," he 

said. 

By mid-Tuesday most of the 20-odd 

television trucks had lowered their 

satellite dishes and returned home. A 

few empty beer bottles In the gutter were the only evidence of the dawnto-dark "quake, rattle and roll" parties held at severallocai bars. 

Ai New Madrid County Central High 

Scltool, Jim Mauk prepared for to- day's return of about 900 students. Mauk, 51, the school district's business 

manager, frowned when be discussed 

the decision to close the county's 

schools on• Monday and Tuesday. "It 

was just because or tile hysteria, if you 

will, caused by Browning's predic· 

tion," lte said. "Our board reacted to 

the sentiment of tile community." 

And for some in the community -

especially many of the elderly - the 

prediction was frightening, said Saundra Thomason, the city clerk of Marston, a town about seven miles south of 

New Madrid. "Some of the older people were 

really friglttened," said Thomason. Calvin Cook, the county's civil pre· 

paredness director, drank coffee and 

smoked a cigarette In Thomason's of· 

fice. He looked tired after a week of 

quakemania. · 

Like many others, he condemned 

Browning but admitted that Browning 

ltad "opened people's eyes. We all 

know that we live here In earthquake 

territory." 

The New Madrid Fault, considered 

one of the most dangerous in the 

world, passes north of this town. Tile 

fault extends about 120 miles through 

parts of four states. Cook plans to keep the food, blankets, water and medical supplies 

stored In the former school building 

that now serves as the Marston munic· 

ipal center. "Eventually we'll ltave 

one," Cook said. "It's a good idea to 

keep people on their toes in this part 

of the country." 

12-5-90 

Webster-Kirkwood (Mo.) Journal 

Reprinted by permission 

Quake fears may have 

affected churches, school's 

By Terry Edelmann 

Journal staff writer 

Officials from area churches 

reported a few extra people 

attending services Sunday. 

But church officials weren't 

sure what impact - if any - an earthquake . predicted for Dec. 3 

had on attendance. 

On the other hand, drops. in 

attendance at area schools Monday appeared to be at least partly linked to earthquake fears. 

St. Timothy's Episcopal 

Church, 808 N. Mason Road, 

attracted more people than normal Sunday, said the Rev. War- ren Crews. But Crews said atten- dance was probably up because 

Sunday marked the start . of the 

Advent season - not because of 

earthquake worries. Attendance was also up at the 

Christ Church United Church of 

Christ, 7126 Bruno Ave. in 

Maplewood, said Joyce Wolf, a church spokeswoman. But the 

increase was more likely caused 

by Sunday being a fellowship 

day rather than earthquake jitters, Wolf said. 

At Parkway Baptist Church, 

2210 Morris Drive, attendance on Sunday climbed to 575 from ;m 

average of 525, said the Rev. 

Earl Haskins. · 

"It coJ,ild have been because of 

the ea:I-thquake, although our 

parishioners are well-grounded," 

Haskins said. " They know where 

their treasures are." 

Kathy Holman, a spokeswoman for the Clayton School District, said · above-average absenteeism Monday appeared to be 

related to earthquake fears. · 

"We have 20 to 25 more stu- dents missing from the high 

school than usual,"- Holman said. 

"And parents of about 10 students at one of our elementary 

schools said they . were keeping 

their children home because of 

the earthquake prediction." 

John Siemers, public relations 

director for the Parkway School 

District, said a preliminary 

check of attendance figures 

showed the numbers were down. 

"We nonnally have about 95 

percent attendance, but we were 

at about 85 percent Monday," 

Siemers said. "It would appear 

that some parents are keeping 

their ·children home." . 

The Kirkwood School District 

had an absentee rate about 10 

percent higher than nonnal, said 

Rhonda Eschmann, a district 

spokeswoman. 

Holman and Siemers said the rate of absenteeism was higher 

among transfer students than 

among students who live in the 

school district. 

"Probably some parents were 

worried about the bus transportation," . Holman said. 

Bob Guttmann, a spokesman 

for the Pattonville School District, said the district had an 

absentee rate of about 16 percent on Monday - compared to a 

usual rate of between 7 and 8 

percent. 

"It could be fear or it could be 

flu," Guttmann said. "We're getting a lot of parents calling in 

and saying their children have 

the flu." 

Don Wilson, a spokesman for 

Mary Institute's Beasley School, 

101 S. Warson Road, said the 

school had only a few more 

absences than usual. 

"We weren't decimated," Wilson said. 

And a spokesman fcir Qur 

Lady ·of Lourdes School, 7157 

Northmoor Drive in Clayton, 

said attendance there was off 

only a little. Attendance was almost 100 

percent at Eden Laboratory 

School, a preschool at 204 E. 

Lockwood Ave. in Webster 

Groves, said Sharon Harkins, a spokeswoman for the school. 

But Harkins said the school 

director, Ann Schroer, had given 

parents of students three options. "Ann selit a note home Thursday," Harkins said. "She told 

parents they were free to come and st.ay in the classroom with 

the children, attend a parent 

meeting at the school or keep 

the children home." · A number of the parents 

attended the meeting, Harkins 

said. 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 171 

12-6-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Editorial 

Reprinted by permission 

Ready For The Big One? -Missouri's reputation as the hard-nosed, skepticalShow-Me state is ruined. Destroyed. Left scatter~d about in little pieces. lben Browning and 

media hype did it, and now Missourians look to all 

the•world like they were lett holding the bagin one 

~.f~!!e biggest snipe hunts In American history. Mr. 

.Brq:?ining's .prediction that .Missouri had a so:so ~hiince of being rocked by a major earthquake 

along the New Madrid fault in early December has 

been shown for the foolish guess that it was. · 

guesswork, given life by sensationalist reporting, 

has caused local civil defense units to think through 

how they would deal with a major natural catastrophe. Schools have held drills; emergency sirens 

have been tested. Parents have talked to their 

children about h_ow to react and where to go should 

the. ground. begin shaking. 

In one sense, Mr. Browning did the region a 

favor. He made many residents think about how 

well prepared they are for an earthquake. His 

After the meaia circus has moved on to its next 

stand, prudent Missourians will have learned how 

to be prepared. Now they cari think of themsP.Ives 

as residents of the Ready-For-Anything State. And, 

as it turned out, the only damage was to the credibility of Ioen Browning and the news media. 

(See editorial 7-25-90.) 

12-6-90 

USA Today 

Copyright 1990. Reprinted with permission 

The quake that wasn't 

cost $200,000 

By carolyn Pesce 

USA TODAY 

omcials in seven Midwest- ern states Wednesday started 

tallying the costs of the earthquake that never came. And 

they say it will be months before they know the true economic impact of lben Brown- ing's faulty prediction. 

Early estimates of quake 

preparedness spending are close to $200,000. 

But that doesn't include 

money spent by thousands of 

communities along -the New 

Madrid, Mo., fault- or dollars 

lost when businesses shut down 

and kids stayed home from 

school because of quake fears. . "' don't think we understand 

the economic impact,'' says Je- rome Hauer of Indiana's 

Emergency Management 

Agency. "People were scared 

to buy a 'IV for Christmas." 

Browning. a New Mexico scientist, has stopped giving interviews since predicting this fall 

that a major quake could hit 

within 48 hours of Dec. 3. In Kentucky, where schools 

get state money based on their 

average daily attendance, Oar- ence Salyer of the Division of 

Pupil Attendance has received 

calls from 30 districts asking if 

they'll get "tnancial relief' 

from the state. "'The. answer I 

have to give to them right now is 'No,'" says_Salyer. 

Around the region: ..,.. Mississippi was forced to 

spend at least $31,000- 5% of 

the state's emergency~ 

ment budget - for things such as extra travel and materials 

for quake presentations. ..,.. illinois ·increased stamng 

at its 24-hour communication 

center in Springfield to handle 

quake calls. Estimated spendi.ng: up to $10,000. .,.. Arkansas spent $42,000. In 

1989, the state distributed 

90,914 quake-preparedness 

brochures, compared with 

143,759 this year - most re- quested after the prediction. 

.... In Missouri, omcials spent 

between $40,000 and $60,000. "We got more productivity 

from the dollars we spent than we did in probably thi'ee years 

worth of spending," says RD. Ross, emergency management 

director. 

..,.. Indiana spent about 

$20,000. 

..,.. Tennessee estimates 

spending $20,000, mainly re- printing quake brochures and 

meetings with omcials in the 

12 co1,1nties closest to the fault 
172 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

12-8-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Media At Fault Over New Madrid Quake Scare 

Now that the countdown is over and, as everyone with any brains 

knew would be the case, nothing has 

happened, it is left to the news media 

to look back on the wreckage· that was their coverage of this lion-event. . They are, it's hoped, experiencing 

that embarrassing what-could-1-havebeen-thinking reeling, as the realization sinks in that they gave credibility, voice and fame to a the-end-iscoming crank, and reported 

exhaustively on something that did 

not happen and was never going to. 

To have such a feeling is probably 

too much to expect or television news. The only rational explanation for local ttilevision's comical news reporting- and, I guess, its only defense - is that it's cooked up by dramatists 

posing as assignment editors and 

writers and read to us by actors. 

Tll,ese people can't really be expected 

to distinguish between entertainment 

and information. 

But it doesn't seem too much to 

expect of newspapers like the PostDispatcb, which still claim to be able 

to make just such distinctions. 

This isn't to suggest that the story could or should have been completely 

ignored by the Post-Dispatcb. It just 

should have been treated like the cu- riosity that it was. That means occa- sional and brief back-page coverage 

of the odd behavior of the people of 

New Madrid and its environs in reac- tion to the predictions of a man whose 

scientific methodology, the scientists 

tell us, is more or less on a par with 

poking through the entrails of goats 

for signs and omens. But instead, it was given extensive 

and serious .front-page coverage which, all by itself, gave the entire 

affair a level of believability, of reality, that no amount of carefully crafted lead-paragraph disclaimer ian, 

guage could neutralize. 

And how about those reputable scientists? They repeatedly said !ben 

Browning was full of beans, but 

seemed incapable of saying that without attaching to it an unctuous warn- ing regarding the inevitability of an eartb.quake on the New Madrid fault, sometime. Sometime? 

Tb.is is science? What use Is a prediction or a natural disaster "Sometime" - as in, before the year 2000, 

in tb.e next 25 years or the next 50 

years? How are we supposed to react 

to that? Wb.at are we supposed to do? 

Stock up on non-perishables and will 

them to our grandcb.ildren? 

Tb.e only excuse for not kissing off 

this guy and his crystal ball from tile 

very beginning was what appeared to 

be a certain scientific standing on his 

part. But once it was established that 

whatever the nature of that standing 

In general, he didn't have any in this 

field, and that he b.ad no particular 

track record of predicting earthquakes - both of which were established early in the proceedings.:... 

there was no excuse. The Post-Dispatcb and all tbe rest 

of the news media should bave 

jumped off the bandwagon. Instead 

they jumped on. 

John Terry 

Kirkwood 

As the near hysteria of !ben Browning's great 1990 non-quake fades 

away into a sea of mirth and jokes, some hard questions remain' to be an- swered. Most of these are not for 

Browning, who Is, after all, now busy 

predicting volcanoes and depressions, 

but for the St. Louis media, particularly the Post-Dispa/cb, three local 

TV stations and the dominant local a.m. band radio station. 

Since the Post-Dispatcb bas a pub- lic responsibility untempered by any 

direct public accountability, its editors will have to judge for themselves 

whether their conduct in this matter was an example of responsible journalism. As every good journalist knows, a non-event or a near non-event can be 

made Into an event merely by giving 

it enough coverage. Lineage, headline 

Joe Sharpnack/Southtown Economist-Chicago 

type and point, story placement, color 

pictures and a major supplement all 

combine to convey a message. Of course people's rears, bizarre 

behavior, events and preparations are news, but the reporting of these 

beliefs, events and preparations can become the new and magnified cre- ation or those same fears and preparations if it is repeated loudly enough 

and often enough. 

Even the public-service dimension 

of an earthquake preparedness guide 

needs to be evaluated, given the state 

of the public mind and the responsibility of the media to simply report facts rather than create them. A case could be made for leaving the print- . ing of such materials in the hands or appropriate and genuine emergency 

agencies such as the Red Cross. I thought journalistic sensationalism had been left behind at the supermarket counter. Apparently it bas not 

been. I suspect in years to come this 

little episode will find its way into tbe 

journalism texts as a good example of 

how not to pursue the craft. 

Pblllp M. Nlbl•ck 

Florissant 

I would like to congratulate Ibeil 

Browning for successfully taking advantage of the fact that a fool 1s born 

every minute. He and many others were able to profit financially from 

his incompetent claims and invented 

theories. By the way, I dreamed that a huge 

comet might strike the Earth some- time between Feb. 2 and 4, 1991.1 

urge you all to declare a national 

holiday. And order your comet-proof umbrellas directly from me. · Donald S. Levy 

St. Louis 

I lived in New Madrid County during the 1930s and '40s, and I used two 

pigs, Oogie and !ben, and a mule 

named Fool to do my quake forecasting. Oogie was very good but !ben did 

not have good balance and was unreliable. Old Fool would be highly amused 

to see the present-day herd of braying jackasses thrashing about. All this 

has confirmed my suspicion: that someone made a rule that says the 

media must be staffed with simple- minded saps. 

Some good has come or this. Almost 

all of them can now pronounce New 

Madrid correctly and next they 

should try to master Hayti. 

My prediction: You won't print this. 

Tburlo V. Byers 

Pasadena Hills 
APPENDIX C-TIIE PREDICTION IN TilE PRESS 173 

12-9-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

'Scientifically Irresponsible': Quake Expert Slams State Center 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

INDIANAPOLIS - A leading scientific authority on the New Madrid 

Fault has-lashed out at Missouri's Center for Earthquake Studies and· its director, saying they fueled public anxiety about a major quake around Dec. 

3. 

. "The conduct of tbat center in the 

nee. 3 episode bas been scientifically 

irresponsible," Arcb Johnston, a seismologist, said Friday. He beads the 

Center for Earthquake Research and 

Information at Memphis State 

.University. 

Johnston criticized the Missouri 

center and its director, David Stewart, 

saying they disseminated "downright 

false information" about the possibility of an earthquake. 

"We must get the message out about 

the complete failure of the forecast of 

Dr. Browning and Dr. Stewart," Johnston told officials and scientists at a 

meeting of the Central United States 

Earthquake Consortium in Indianapolis. The consortium is a. group of top 

earthquake preparedness officials 

from the Midw~. 

' The Memphis center "bas severed 

any ties" with the r.tissouri center, be 

said. The Missouri center is situated 

on the campus of Southeast Missouri 

State University, in Cape Girardeau. 

Stewart was the only seismologist to 

give public support to Iben Browning's 

forecast for a 50-50 chance of a major 

quake in the fault from Dec. I through 

Wednesday. The forecast was debunked by a national panel of experts, 

which included Johnston. 

No major earthquakes were recorded in the fault duJ1ng the period. 

Stewart, who was not at the meeting, could not be reached for comment. Unda Dillman, a program specialist at the center; said .the center 

bad "done a great deal of good in the 

area" by answering mail and phone 

requests for information on how to 

prepare for a quake. 

"People are better prepared for the 

eventuality of an earthquake than 

they have been anytime in Ute last 10 

years," Dillman said. 

R.D. Ross, director of the State 

Emergency.;Management Agency, 

· said: "I guess the pit he [Stewart] feU 

into was [saying] that the Browning 

projection should 

be checked into. 

However erroneous Dr. Browning's projection 

may have been, 

he has pushed the uuderstanding of 

people in the central U.S. to levels 

never before seen." 

Johnston said that "science in the 

region received a real-black eye." 

Why Many Believed Quake Prediction 

By Peter Hernon 

and William Allen 

Of the Poii-Diapatch Staff 

A year ago this month Iben Browning - inventor, author and to some a 

dangerous charlatan- made his nowfamous earthquake prediction. On the 

seismic scale of publicity, Browning's 

shocking remarks about a 50-50 

chance for a strong quake along the 

New Madrid Fault generated only 

brief tremors. 

The real trembling came later -

fear, hysteria, rumors of Impending 

disaster and ·news coverage Ulat critIcs likened to the screaming headlines 

of the F.ront Page era. 

Bogus stories rippled out like shock 

waves. The public was eager to believe them. The memory of Ule fatal 

Lorna Prieta earthquake tbat Iii!! bit 

the San Francisco area on Oct 17, 

1989, remained cbUIIngly vivid. : 

One rumor bad a St. Louis ~lity 

company stockpiling 6,000 body.Jlags 

in anUcipaUon of the carnage,:·sull 

another said no seats were available 

on filghts out of the quake zone-just 

before Dec. 3, the bull's-eye of BrownIng's prediction. · 

Some schools closed. Emergency 

drills were held, and medical supplies 

were stockpiled. In Missouri alone 

worried homeowners sbellecC oui 

about $22 mlllion to add earthqjlake 

coverage to their poliCies. : 

Why was a prediction scientists 

thought unbelievable so readily 

b_elieved? 

Partly to blame is what one· physicist calls the public's appetite for such 

"anti-science" as ESP and astrology. 

"It all happened for the same reason there are 10,000 astrologers in this 

country and only 2,500 astronomers," 

said Carl _Bender, a Washington Uni-

~ersity physicist. "It's stili incredible 

tome." 

Blame, too, a bizarre mixture of 

events that included a minor quake near Cao-~ Girardeau, Mo., that measured 4.6 on the Richter scale. The 

quake, in. late September, burned 

Browning's prediction deeply into the 

mind of an already jittery public. 

Add to the list: 

-A five-month delay by prominent 

scientists to debunk Browning's theory, allowing it to develop criti.cal 

mass. - The broadcast of a sensational, 

much-criticized NBC miniseries on a f.icuonal Big one in Los Angeles. 

-The curious defense of Browning 

by David Stewart, a well-known Missouri quake expert who later admitted 

he supported psychic phenomenon. 

Finally, with the fire already naming nicely, the news media poured on 

gasoline. 

"We were participating in a media 

feeding frenzy," said George Kennedy, a journalism professor at the University of Missouri at Columbia. 

"There was .. . a kind of momentum and a level of fascination that is 

irrational." . . In the week bracketing Browning's 

prediction - it covered Pee. 1-5 -

nearly 30 television stations. sent trucks to New Madrid, a small comWendi Browntpost-Dispatch 

Guitar player Joe Brasher of Malden, Mo_, being interviewed by some of the journalists in New 

Madrid last week. The earthquake prediction and the arrival of visitors from around the c.ountry 

gave the town's economy a momentary boost. 
174 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

12-9-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

(Continued) 

munity in the Missouri Bootheel that 

gave tile fault its name. Most parked -in a two-block area 

along Main Street and th~re they remained for nearly a week. There were 

so many television people and so little 

real news that they wound up shooting 

footage of themselves and bar scenes. 

0 

When !ben Browning visited Missouri last December to make his prediction, he. chose a preferred and paying audience - a governor's 

conference on agriculture at Osage 

Beach. Bro~ing likes businessmen 

- lie sells them a newsletter on the 

climate's impact on the economy -

almost as much as lie dislikes journalists. His listeners were ·primed for 

what lie had to tell them. · 

Browning, after all, had a track record, some said. He claimed lie bad 

foretold several nasty quakes, including the killer in San Francisco and the 

word was out be would be dof'ng the 

same thing at Osage Beach. 

Browning did not disappoint At the 

close of his remarks, lie made his 

"projection" for an earthquake measuring 7.0 erupting somewhere· on the 

New Madrid Fault. The band of weakened rock stretches 120 miles through 

parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee and Illinois. · 

Browning calculated his 50-50 odds, 

lie said, by studying other scientists' 

reports of _faults In· a band of latitude 

that would experience a 27-year-iligll 

tidal force pull during his five-day 

window of opportunity. ' 

After Browning's visit to Missouri 

last December and a brief. flurry of 

often-senSational reports about his 

prediction, there was a long, almost 

lulling period of quiet. 

It wasn't until May that a group of 

earthquake experts in the New Madrid Fault region virtually begged the 

National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council to comment on Browning's forecast. Tile council declined, 

curtly saying it was not "a public forum for evaluation of any and all 'predictions'· sent our way." 

Tile decision was later criticized by 

scientisls like Washington University's 

Bender, who argued that it permitted 

the fear associated with Browning's 

prediction to gain momentum. 

"I wish the experts would have done 

something months earlier," said 

Bender, "I'm sure that would have. a 

calming effect." 

After the initial plea for an assessment, five months elapsed before the 

experts finally ripped Browning and 

said his theory that tidal forces can 

trigger a quake bad no scentific basis 

and was a "disservice" to the public. 

David Stewart, director of the Center for Earthquake Studies at Southeast Missouri State University, also 

fed the fires, say Bender and others. 

Stewart said be found Browning's 

Ideas "worthy of serious and thorough co~ideration;" Virtually Bro:wning's 

sole supporter among scientists, Stewart bad a high media profile. 

It soon developed, however, that 

Stewart bad stuck his neck out the 

same way once before. In 1976 lie 

backed a psychic's prediction for a 

earthquake in Wilmington, N.C., after 

reading about the psychic in the National Enquirer. The quake never occurred. The incident prompted the 

University of North carolina in Cba-

·pel Hill to deny him tenure. 

After complaining about "character 

assassination," Stewart announced 

that he would not comment any more 

about Browning's forecast. 

In the late summer, when interest in 

his prediction - be prefers the word 

"projection" - was rapidly building 

in the Midwest, Browning suggested 

that be might not live to see whether it 

came true.·Atage 72, he-suffers from 

back to polls that show that 64 perarit 

of those with college degrees believe 

in ESP and that 27 _percent of~thfi_ 

public believes they've i>een in toiich 

with someone dead. 

Scientists have spoken of the danger 

of blindly accepting what they regard 

as a non-scientist's prediction about an event that so far can't be predided 

with any degree of precision, namely 

big earthquakes. 

So, again, wily did it happen? 

"Claims like these are marketable," 

said Bender. "People are hungry tor 

them and, by God, do they sell. BrownIng says lie's a business consultant .To 

sell his wares, he's got to make them 

interesting." The news media, be said, 

bought In and so did the public. 

There were some pluses to (he 

earthquake scare. It made the public 

and their officials more aware of:disaster preparedness. 

But down In the Bootheel, the city 

fathers of New Madrid admit !bey 

worry about the long-term economic 

impact on their town's 3,200 residents. 

Merchants report that Christmas 

sales are down as shoppers dela~ed 

making purchases until · they were 

sure the ground wouldn't rumble: And 

after booming sales, insurance companies like State .Farm report that applications for earthquake coverage -in 

Missouri have fallen from 2,000 a day 

before Dec. 3 to less than 50. "After the boom" of publicity, 

"there's always a bust," said Bendtlr. 

"I think people are going to find that it 

wasn't worth the cheap thrill." 

diabetes and is ln and frail circulatory health. But -

his problems health r.============---::==~:::::====~- An article in this newspaper on was not too frail for occasional lecture LARRY June 22 on Page 38E- far back ln a 

trips to the danger zone from his home FIQUEnE big paper- written by science writer near Albuquerque, N.M. William Allen, quoted Browning's 

Browning visited St. Louis on Nov. daughter, Evelyn Browning Garrlss, 

15 to speak before 600 people at a $25- READER'S who spoke at a meeting In St. Louis. 

a-person lunch. He spent most of his ADVOCATE She stated her dad's prediction then, 

time making another prediction - an hedged with tile phrase "lf the gun 

economic crash worse than the Great Isn't loaded, It doesn't go off." 

Depression by 1992. Browning did not H Q k That article quoted Brian Mitchell, 

mention his quake forecast until OW ll8 e head of earth sciences study at St. 

asked what he would do around Dec. 3 Louis University, in the fourth paraif he lived in St. Louis. ·He said: P-redi" cti" on graph: "I don't think [the prediction] Is 

"If a person lias any doubt about something we should pay attention 

whether I'm wrong or not, be should at to." 

least take care of his Children." Hysteria Grew The story did not closely e]!:amlne 

Browning did not talk to journalists. Browning's record of predictions or Almost as if they didn't need him any his methods. It can be argued that this 

NOW THAT the curtain has rung was the point at which the Post-Dis- more, reporters were ready to start . down on the Browning Saga, crlti- patch should have checked Browntalking to themselves. clsm of "media hype" has prompted lng's track record. 

- . 0 . metogobacktothebeglnnlngandtry OnJulylO,anAPstoryreported In May 1988 thousands of panicky to figure out where and hoiv all the from Wilson, Ark., that a northeast 

residents fled from Los Angeles be- earthquake-predlctloil hysteria Arkansas school district would close 

cause of an earthquake forecast 11 gained such a head of steam. Also, I schools during the predicted time slot. was based on a highly creative inter- have looked back at the Post-Dispatch On July H In St Louis Mitchell of St 

pretation of a prediction by a 16th- · ' ' · century French fortuneteller named coverage of that story. I,.ouls University, and Arch Johnston, 

Nostradamus. Bumper stickers an- Climatologist !ben Browning has of Memphis State University, denounced: "Honk if You Believe Nos- been a news source about earthquake bunked the Browning prediction, say- tradamus." activity at least as far back-as October ing It "should not be considered 

Horns blasted across hazy Los An- 1989, when the big quake struck San seriously." · Francisco. He was quoted then as 0 J 1 21 p D geles, but the quake never came. Still, claiming !bat on Oct.IO he had pre- n u Y , tile ost- lspatch 

the prediction was widely believed dieted the Oct. 17 quake wltllln one quoted David Stewart, head of the 

and just as widely reported. . day. . seismology department at Southeast 

"Much of the willingness io accept From that point on, his prediction of Missouri State University, saying Browning "should be taken seriously." this ... is due to a a quake in the New Madrid Fault sort The story sald "Browning predicted 

personal hunger of eased Its way, through the back the earthquake on Oct. 17" In san 

on the part of door, Into the awareness of St. Loul- Francisco, and "also accurately prepeople for Inter- sans and readers of the Post-Dispatch. dieted the earthquake In Sept. 1985 In 

esling ·news," A year ago this week, Browning ad- Mexico Clti ... and "the earthquake 

said Bender. dressed a farm conference In Osage In 1971 ln San Fernando, calif." None 

Bender, a Har- Beach, Mo. That's when, according to of those predictions has been v a rd. trained an Associated Press story, he stated substantiated. 

physicist, has (or restated) his now-famous predic- A Post-Dispatch editorial on July 25 

published about tion: the New Madrid Fault "could be said Browning "has a good record of 

·120 papers on Browning .the cenier of a major quake in less accurate predictions- good enough 

mathematical than a year." to be taken wlth a great deal of cau- and particle theory. He Is also an o)lt- That item was printed Dec. 141n the lion. That means he should be 

spoken debunker. -~ St. Louis Sun- but not in the Post- heeded." 

It doesn't matter, Bender said· tllat Dispatch. Next, spread across the top of Page 

on average' only seven people,;die On March 19 of thls year, an AP One on Aug. 26, a Sunday, was Allen's 

from earthquakes each year com: dispatch from carbondale, Ill., told of Interview wltb Browning at his home 

pared with 7,000 kllled annually from carbondale's decision to prepare for a In New Mexico. The story began: 

falling in their homes. Earthquakes; in possible earthquake on Dec. 3 and 4. "!ben Browning doesn't care that 

the minds of many, are still regar:ded That story appeared in the Post-Dis- earthquake experts have denounced 

as a greater threat. Bender said ifgets patch only in the Illinois edition. his forecast ... " 
12-9-90 

St. Louis 

Post-Dispatch 

(Continued) 

In the fourth paragraph, Allen 

wrote "scientists bave almost unanl· 

mously condemned [the forecast] and 

the method behind it." The article 

explained tbat tidal pulls were the 

basis of Browning's forecast, and at 

lengtb quoted scientists wbo pooh· 

poobed the Idea. A sidebar story was 

headlined "!ben Browning called A 

'Man Of Great Honesty.'" 

In retrospect, no close Inspection 

ot Browning's track record was made 

early enough to belp readers make 

their own judgments about Browning's 

qualifications tor predicting earthquakes. And placing that Aug. 26 story 

- ·really, the first one read by most St. 

Louis readers- on some Inside page 

would undoubtedly bave lessened 

"the bype." In most readers' eyes, 

placement Indicates Importance. 

Shortly after that, I began getting 

calls from readers wbo were nervous about tbe prediction and were obviously taking It seriously. Of course, the 

many radio and television "sound 

bites" played a big role, too. It's easy 

to catch only part of an announcer's 

words and misunderstand. 

Then, on Oct. 28, a Post-Dispatch 20· 

page color tabloid section told readers 

- tor the first time since Browning's 

prediction - bow to prepare tor an earthquake. (It included an ad tor 

"survival kit defense shotguns.'') That 

made it obvious to some readers that 

the newspaper's editors, too, were tak· 

lng tbe Browning Saga seriously- even though that was not the Intent. 

In tbe end, an overwrought story 

needlessly upset a lot of readers, wbo 

now may feel they were misled. 

APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 175 

Quake 

12-11-90 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Apathy Feared In Wake Of Bad Forecast 

The next earthquake comes when 

the last one is forgotten. 

- Peruvian folk saying 

By Wil.liam Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

INDIANAPOUS 

M ldwestern earthquake-preparedness officials fear that 

their second-worst night· mare may become a reality: Nobody 

will listen to their message that the 

region needs to get ready tor a quake. 

Their worst nightmare, of course, is . a severe quake. 

Their dilemma is that they know 

one's coming sometime In tbe next 

few . decades, even tbougb !ben 

Browning's forecast tor a major quake 

In the New Madrid Fault tlopped. 

"Tbe]lroblem now is one of sustain· 

ing momentum," said Thomas Zim-. 

merman, earthquake program manager tor tbe Illinois Emergency 

Services and Disaster Agency. 

Zimmermiin's comment was ecb· 

oed by other officials and scientists 

wbo gathered In Indianapolis through 

Sunday tor a meeting of the Central 

United States Earthquake Consortium. The consortium is a group ·ot top 

earthquake preparedness officials 

from the states on and around the 

New Madrid Fault zone. 

Tbey analyzed the impact of the 

October 1989 Lorna Prieta earthquake 

in Cslifornla and the New Madrid, 

Mo., quake scare brought on· by 

Browning's forecast. No major quakes 

occurred In tbe New Madrid Fault in 

those 14 months, but both events bad 

lasting effects on earthquake science, 

education and planning In the Mid· 

west, !bey said. 

"I don't think we'll ever be the 

same," said Arcb Johnston, director ot 

the Center tor Earthquake Research 

and Information at Memphis State 

University. 

The forecast by Browning, a New Mexico climatologist, called tor a 50·50 chance of a quake measuring 

between 6.5 and 7.5 on . the Richter 

scale from Dec. 1 through Dec. 5. The 

forecast triggered unusual public 

anxiety, even though it was discounted 

by a national panel of quake expertS. 

No significant quakes occurred in 

the fault during the five-day period. 

After the Browning forecast be· 

came widely known, emergency preparedness officials in Missouri, llli· 

nois and other nearby states dropped 

almost everything else on their agendas to respond to a deluge of written 

and telephone requests for earth· 

quake information. 

"It remains to be seen, though, bow 

many of those people wbo asked for 

information actually did anything 

with it," Zimmerman said_ His agency 

will try to assess wbat steps Illinois 

citizens actually took toward preparing for a quake. 

"I n our nation's 

history, there has 

always been a price for 

preparedness, but it's 

only a pittance 

compared with the price 

of unpreparedness. " 

R.D. ROSS, 

Emergency Management Agency 

If apathy reigns, otticials must de· 

sign new ways to encourage action, he 

said. 

Tbe otticials agree that despite a 

public letdown, preparation is crucial 

to save lives and dollars when a major 

quake does strike the Midwest. 

"In our nation's history, there's al· 

ways been a price tor preparedness, 

but it's only a pittance compared with 

the price of unpreparedness," said 

RD. Ross, director ot Missouri's State 

Emergency Management Agency. 

For those who fear the public 

will now go to sleep on the earthquake 

issue, one social scientist bad some encouraging news. · 

Joanne Nigg, director ot the Disas· 

ter Research Center at the UI!iversity 

ot Delaware, In Newark, cited the 

case ot a quack earthquake prediction 

in tbe .Los Angeles area in the 1970s. 

The prediction got intense media coverage and generated requests tor in· 

formation that overwhelmed local 

universities and disaster otticials - a 

scenario remarkably similar to the 

Browning episode. 

. But after the predicted dale pro· 

duced no earthquake, "people still 

wanted more information .. : : from 

scientifically credible sourceS," Nigg said. · 

Preparedness efforts dropped ott, 

"but never .to the level tbey were be· 

tore," sbe said. 

Nigg urged the scientists and otticials to keep tbe earthquake issue be· 

tore the public, especially pursuing 

sucb "real problems" as tbe need ·tor 

building codes tbat better address 

seismic design of new buildings and 

strengthening of old ones, especially 

schools and hospitals. 

William Anderson, an official with 

the National Science Foundation, in 

Washington, said the agency bas been 

supporting studies of public reaction to Browning's prediction. · · 

"There's a &reat deal we can learn to channel tbe public response to predictions," Anderson-said.'.· ..::. · 

Meanwhile, emergency ma~agement officials are making plans to 

move ahead with their agenda:· 

"Our challenge is to do our best to 

maintain an appropriate and constant level of awareness," said Wallace 

Stickney, director of the · Federal 

Emergency Management Agency, 

also in Washington. 

Such awareness is essential to mak· 

ing it possible for local officials to 

push tbrougb new building codes "that 

will eventually .save a lot of lives," 

Stickney said. 

Tbe Browning episode will have a 

positive effect it It "re-establishes a 

sense ot humility that tbe Earth does 

wbat it wants to wben it wants to, and 

we must govern our lives accordingly," he said. 

"Unfortunately, many lives bave 

been disrupted." 

Randall Updike, an otticial with the 

u.s. Geological Survey, in Reston, Va,, 

said tbe survey will redouble its et· forts to understand tbe intricacies.of 

how earthquakes occur. 

Memphis State's Johnston said that 

the Browning episode had given science in tbe Midwest "a real black 

eye." He. urged more study ot the 

probabilities and hazards of quakes 

"so that a pseudoscientific event like 

the one that happened on Dec. 3 will 

never happen again in this region." 
176 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTIIQUAKE 

12-12-90 

Greensboro (N.C.) 

News & Record 

Reprinted by permission 

of the Associated Press 

Earthquake 

Prediction 

Missed Mark 

In N.C., Too 

GREENSBORO (AP) - An 

earthquake prediction for North 

Carolina's coast 15 years ago by a 

Tar Heel scholar didn't result in the 

near-panic thlit took place this 

week in Missouri. 

In 1976, while living in North 

Carolina, professor David Stewart 

collaborated with a California 

psychic who predicted a giant 

tremor would hit the WilmingtonSouthport area on a certain date. 

Most recently c Mr. Stewart, now 

living .in Missouri, showed strong 

enthusiasm for Texas climatologist 

lben Browning, who frightened 

most of Missouri by predicting a big 

quake would hit the New Madrid 

area Monday or Tuesday. 

"It surprises me that he didn't 

learn his lesson 15 years ago," 

Geoffrey Feiss, chairman of the 

University of North Carolina at 

Chapel Hill geology department 

and a former colleague of Mr. 

Stewart's, said in an interview 

published Thursday in the 

Greensboro News & Record. 

While a geology professor at 

12-14-90 

USA Today 

Chapel Hill in 1975, Mr. Stewart 

stood in a grocery store line one day 

reading a National Inquirer story 

about a California psychic who 

claimed she could predict earth· quakes. 

At the time, Mr. Stewart, a 

seismologist, was convinced that a 

big quake was in the works for the 

Wilmington area. He invited the 

psychic to accompany him to the 

North Carolina coast. 

She told him it would hit Jan. 17, 

1976, and measure 8 on the Richter 

Scale. Mr. Stewart said at the time 

he felt a duty to make her 

prediction public. 

The ground never shook. 

In 1977, Mr. Stewart was denied 

tenure at Chapel Hill, even though 

he had once been voted best teacher 

of the year by geology students. 

He left the world of .academics 

but in recent years returned as 

director of the Center for Earthquake Studies at Southeast Missouri 

State University, not far from New 

Madrid. ··-

He was the only academic to 

show respect for climatologist lben 

Browning's prediction that a major 

earthquake would strike the New 

Madrid area. 

Nothing happened. 

Mr. Feiss said that in 1976 he 

chalked up Mr. Stewart's eagerness 

to embrace the psychic as the 

naivete of a young scholar. 

"I think Dave is a unique 

fellow," he said. "He has a different 

sort of view of how science should 

operate. He feels there are things 

that operate in the physical world 

ihat we can't understand or we 

don't understand. So he has an open 

mind to all possibilities, which is 

good, but the problem in his case is 

he sacrifices his critical facilities. 

12-12-90 

Saint Louis 

Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

of the Associated Press 

Quake 

Official 

Quits Job 

Expert At University 

Had Backed Browning 

CAPE GIRARDEAU, Mo. (AP) - David Stewart, criticized by his fellow 

scientists because he refused to disso· Ciate himself from an earthquake projection made by !ben Browning, has 

stepped down as head of the Center 

lor Earthquake Studies at Southeast 

1oli5souri State University. • · "Since some of my colleague's at· tacks on my position in regard to the 

:Browning projection, as reported by 

the press, have become attacks on the 

center," Stewart said Tuesday, "my 

continued connection with the center could have a negative effect on its 

effectiveness in the continuing light tor earthquake preparedness in the 

:coming months. 

"For that reason, and lor my own personal reasons, I have asked for 

assignment to a full-time teaching 

position." 

· J.O. Snowden, dean of the College of 

Science and Technology, said that he 

)lad approved Stewarrs request and 

that the center would report directly 

io his office until a new director is 

harned. 

•. "Dr. Stewart feels, and we support 

his opinion, that the public's under· 

standing of the center's mission has 

peen shifted away from its real focus on mitigation and education by the 

'publicity surrounding the Browning 

projection." • Snowden said he believed that Stew- 'art had performed a service to the 

area. ; "It is apparent that the university 

·and the region are better prepared 

·now for an earthquake then they were a year ago," Snowden said. "That is .chiefly due to the efforts of Dr. Stew- art and his staff. · 

, .• "Dr. Stewart recognized the Impact :or the potential loss of credibility on ·the work of the center. We all agree 

that the work of the center must go · 

forward for the benefit of the people 

of this region." 

Stewart said that his first )ove was 

teaching and that heiooked forward 

'to returning full-time to teaching in 

the school's Department of Earth 

Sciences. 

Browning, a self-proclaimed climatologist, had projected a 50-50 chance 

for a serious earthquake along the 

New Madrid fault on or about Dec. 3 

because of the gravitational stress 

caused by the alignment of the sun and moon. No earthquake occurred. 

Most scientists had scoffed at the 

projection, saying that Browning's methods were about as accurate 10 

predicting an earthquake as throwing 

darts at a calendar: 

Stewart had said that Browning was 

a . scientist and that his projection 

should not be discounted. 

Despite his familiarity with the New 

Madrid Fault, Stewart was not includ- ed on· a panel of experts gathered by 

the Central United States Earthquake 

Consortium to study Browning's projection. The panel concluded that 

there was no scientific basis for the 

projection. 

Copyright 1990. Reprinted with permission 

BEHIND THE SCENES WITH PEOPLE IN THE HEADUNES 

Quake shake-up: 

Scientist resigns 

The Earthquake That 

Wasn't has_ claimed a victim. 

STEWART: Said quake prediction 'worth looking into' 

David Stewart, a scientist 

ridiculed by colleagues for refusing to discount the forecast 

of a major earthquake in the 

Midwest around Dec. 3, has resi~ed as head of a Missouri 

university's quake center. 

Stewart, 53, says he stepped 

down as head of the Center for 

Earthquake Studies at South- east Missouri State University 

atCape Girardeau to quiet criticism of the center. 

Stewart had said the contro- versial prediction by New Mexico inventor I ben Browning deserved consideration. 

"Alii ever said was that the man is a competent scientist 

who deserves a fair hearing," 

Stewart says "He may be right 

and he may be wrong, but he 

shouldn't be prejudged." 

He says there were com- plaints since he called the fore- cast "worth looking into." 

Stewart will remain at the 

university as a teacher. 

He says all the hoopla had a positive result: public aware- ness of quake safety. 

"Now, millions of people are ready for what all seismologists agree to be an inevitable occurrence on the New Madrid 

fault," Stewart says 

But Arch Johnsion, head of 

the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at Memphis State University, says 

the attention the Missouri cen- ter gave Browning's prediction was "irresponsible" and 

caused unnecessary fear. 

"It appeared that the scientific community was split, . when in fact there was not a single practicing earth scientist 

who put any credence In the . prediction," Johnston says. "It 

gave a lot of undue .. credibility to Browning." 

-:- Thomas R. Raber 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 

THE EDITOR'S CHAIR 

THE GREAT MIDWEST 

EARTHQUAKE SCARE 

Why did we editors ignore our 

routine 'kook alarms' in this case? 

By JIM PAXTON 

Jim Paxton has been 

editor of the Paducah 

(Ky.) Sun for five years. 

ON NOVEMBER 15, 1990, A NEW MEXICO SCIENTIST/ business 

advisor named I ben Browning spoke to a gathering in St Louis. The 

Associated Press said Mr. Browning gave his listeners the following 

heretofore little~known bits ofinfo: 

1) Tidal forces triggered a chain of events that caused the rise of Nazism. 

2) Tidal forces in 1992 will lead to the worst depression in U.S. 

history, but for "climatological reasons" we will start pulling out by the 

end of t:hat year. (an eeonomic oxyinoroi1, if one considers the Great 

Depression). 

On the very day that Mr. Browning made these remarks, two more 

school systems in our 32,()()().circulation daily's coverage area 

announced they would cancel classes Dec. 3-4. 

Within 10 days, all but a handful of 

schools in our 17-county coverage area would 

follow suit. The reason: the same Iben 

Browning who associates tides with the 

Holocaust had made a prior, grossly 

overpublicized claim that tidal forces would 

create a 50-50 chance of a terrific earthquake 

in our region. It could occur on Dec. 3, give 

or take two days, on the nearby New Madrid 

Fault, he said. 

For me, Mr. Browning's "tides and 

Nazis" comments were the final kook alarm. 

I decided our newspaper had gone too far in 

providing the man and his "projection" a 

forum. 

A lecture to that effect to my reporters and 

editors fell mosdy on deaf ears. Realizing I 

had a runaway train on my hands, I did what 

some consider journalistically unspeakable. I 

banned all mention of Mr. Browning and his 

projection during the week leading up to and 

the week following Dec. 3. 

In a news story about our decision, I 

explained that the information we possessed 

in no way justified the attention we had given 

Mr. Browning's "projection." Yet our 

c:oVerage of it had helped cause fear and 

hysteria. I said such coverage had been an 

editing mistake on my part, and I apologized. 

People obsetving this siOJation from afar 

will never fully appreciate the breadth and the 

reality of the suffering we in the press and 

other media helped to cause in the Midwest 

by our mishandling of this story. 

Despite the fact that almost no one in 

either the scientific community or the press 

believed Mr. Browning's earthquake 

projection was credible, we shouted it from 

the roofrops, often adding only the most 

perfunctory disclaimers. 

We did this despite the fact that most of us 

knew: 

• Browning's doctoral degree is in 

bacteriological physiology and genetics, not 

geology. 

• Browning based his quake "projection" 

on science he calls "climatology," which, as 

best I can discern, is a sort of souped-up 

astrology. It is a field in which he says he's 

self.OOucated and -that he pursues as a hobby. 

• An advisory panel of the U.S. Geological 

Sutvey issued a highly publicized report in 

October 1990 saying there is no scientific 

basis for Browning's theories about tides and 

earthquakes. They have been studied and 

discounted.· 

• Oaims that Browning had accurately 

predicted previous disasters with his 

methodology proved unverifiable. 

Other than not covering the chaos in nearby 

177 

1-91 

ASNE Bulletin 

Reprinted by permission 

New Madrid on " quake day" our moratorium 

had litrle net effect on editorial content. We 

held up a handful ofletters to the editor for 

six-ro-12 days (all but one supporting our 

moratorium) and reported a few school 

closings without reference to Browning. 

By the time of our ban, we had covered the 

Browning issue seven ways from Sunday 

anyway. We also had written reams about the 

fault zone and quake preparedness both before 

and after Browning's debut. 

I feel the press ran into a quite comparable 

siOJation to the Browning claim a year or so 

ago when two Utah scientists announced they 

had almost by accident produced a "cold 

fusion" reaction in a kitchen~table experiment. 

It was the sruff of science fiction, and if 

true, it also was the greatest discovery since . 

fire. The press jumped all over it. But when 

the rest of the scientific community voiced 

serious and near-unanimous doubts, most of 

us did the right thing. We backed way, way 

off that story. · 

Why we did not handle the Browning 

situation in the same fashion is a mystery and 

an embarrassment to our industry. We 

should have collectively scoffed. Instead, we 

squandered millions of dollars and thousands 

of man hours to stage the greatest media 

debacle in decades. More than 200 news 

organizations had reporters on the streets of 

tiny New Madrid, Mo.; on "quake day." 

Why? Did the nation's editors and news 

directors send them all there to die? Or did we 

send them there to scare the hell out of people? 

Our computer system automatically kills 

unused copy every 24 hours. Yet just before 

noon on Dec. 4, I counted 27 stories in our 

system about _the <IUake, filed by such varied 

organizations as Newsday, the WashingtOn 

Post, the Baltimore Sun, and multitudes of AP 

and UPI staffers and members. 

This is not a case of a bunch of reporters 

getting out of hand. It is, in the case of 

newspapers, a failure of editors to edit. 

We all asked ourselves the easy question: Is 

this a good story? It was one heck of a story. 

But professionalism demands we ask ourselves 

a second question in volatile scenarios such as 

this: Knowing what we know, is it responsible 

to report it? 

At some point, some point well before Dec. 

3, deep down we all knew the answer to that 

question was no. But we pressed on, 

pursuing the story with such ferocity that 

Browning's scientifically ludicrous assertion 

took on an almost monstrous legitimacy in the 

minds of a great many people. 

The press had a lot of fun with this story. 

Problem is, a great many people suffered as a 

result. I doubt that any of you really need a 

contentedly-obscure western Kenrucky 

newspaper editor like me to tell you this was 

wrong. • 
178 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

3-21-91 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Shatterproof 

Quake Readiness Survives Browning Scare 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

A joke going around after the New 

Madrid earthquake scare in December poked fun at the abilities of Iben 

·Browning, who forecast a 50-50 

chance for the quake that didn't 

happen. . _ 

Question: "Did you hear about Iben 

Browning's next prediction?" 

. Answer: "There's going to be a ma- JOr flood · wh~n everyone pours outtheir emergency water supplies." 

_In . the months since "E-Day" on Dec. 3, some people have dumped 

their water, ·eatea their emergency food and returned gas-powered generators and other equipment to hard- ware stores, earthquake preparedness 

officials said. 

But that doesn't mean the public has 

become apathetic. Instead, the 

Browning affair has helped move Missouri and Illinois toward addressing truitthreat, they said. · 

: "Tneinain benefit from Mr. Browntog w~ the increased awareness to 

the faetthat the Earth has moved here 

before, and it's going to move again," ~id TOin Redickas, coordinator of eme~ncy services for· Williamson 

County; with offices in Marion,. Ill. 1

'Evefi'though it didn't happen according to 1'his schedule, it's out there ~omeplace." 

• _ Seismologists say the scientifically fegitimate probabilities for a damag- ing quake in the New Madrid Fault are no different now than before Dec. 

3l about 50 percent over the next 15 

years and 90 percent over the next 50 

years for a quake of 6.3 or greater on ttie Richter scale. Damage could vary w,idely depending on where the quake 

erupts in the fault, which stretches 

ftom Southern Illinois; through southeastern Missouri and into northern 

Arkansas. 

:Browning, of New Mexico, is an .ex- pert on climate. He called for a 50-50 

chance of a quake measuring between 

6:5 and 7.5 in the fault from Dec. 1 

through Dec. 5. The forecast triggered ppblic anxiety, even though it was discounted by a national panel of earth-_ 

quake scientists. Browning has no forII?-al training in earthquake science. 

· Despite the needless scare, the 

Ib-owning affair showed school adII?-inistrators and other public officials 

tllat they have a legal responsibility to 

p)'otect their charges, Redickas said. 

Even after December, many officials 

in Southern Illinois have moved ahead 

with earthquake preparedness plans, and those who· already have plans have tried to improve them, he said. 

R.D. Ross, Missouri's top emergency preparedness official, said commu· nities in the New Madrid Fault zone had reached "a certain maturity" 

abo.ut earthquakes as a result of the 

Browning scare. 

Ross is director of the State Emergency Management Agency, in Jeffer- son City. He spent Sunday through Tuesday touring seven counties in 

southeastern Missouri. 

"There's a level of· preparedness never seen before," particularly in 

schools, hospitals and nursing homes, 

he said. But many structures still need 

to be strengthened or replaced with 

seismically sound buildings. · ,If any falloff in earthquake pre- paredness activities can be detected 

among local and state officials, it's more due to budget upheavals than 

lack of interest, Ross said. 

Most people he talked with on his 

tou.r realize that "we're a hundred 

days closer to the event than we were on Dec. 3, when the eyes o~ the world were on us," Ross said. 

One of the downsides of the quake scare was that it panicked many peo- ple, said Dan Freet, deputy director of 

the St. Louis County Office of Emergency Management. 

"But in the end it was good for the 

St. Louis region, because I do know a lot of people took preparatory steps 

'that are still in place, and even those 

who didn't know in the back of their 

minds that this is an earthquakeprone area," he said. 

Public discussion of the New Madrid earthquake threat may have fall- en in the past three months, but planners and builders have been moving ahead on the issue. 

"'Responsible building owners, 

schools, utilities and other p~ople who 

realize their responsibility to protect 

the public are proceeding," said 

Thomas Schwetye, an architect in 

Clayton. "They · realize that eartpquake statistics are as fickle as the 

weather, and it can happen any time." 

Phillip Gould, chairman of civil en- gine~ring at Washington University, 

said "essentially all the principal inlben Browning Gets 'Chicken Little' Award 

Iben Br()wning has won the first 

Chicken Little Award of the National Anxiety Center. 

"Browning managed to scare the 

daylights ,out of people in seven Midwestern states, provide one· of 

the most dubious news stories of 

the year and demonstrate the way 

anyone with a Ph.D. is given free 

reign to create a high level of public anxiety," said Alan Caruba, 

founder of the anxiety center. 

The center( based in Maplewood, 

N.J., is a "clearinghouse and 

sounding board with a bit of a con- trary voice in the face of the flow 

of misinformation and disinformation" provided by the U.S. news media, caruba said. 

Browning forecast even odds for a major earthquake in the New 

Madrid Fault about Dec. 3. A panel 

·of earthquake experts ridiculed 

the forecast and the method behind it. No quake occurred. 

- William AJlen 

dustries in St. Louis" have started 

long-term programs to upgrade facilities to protect their business interests 

ina quake. 

"A lot of what is being done is being 

done quietly," Gould said. "They know 

this is still a real threat and it's not 

going to go away." ' 

A committee of the American Society ot Civil Engineers met at the univei:Sity March 12 and 13 to conSider 

guidelines tor bolstering the structure 

of buildings to make them safer in 

earthquakes. Such seismic guidelines are in place for construction of new buildings and have formed the basis 

for many local building codes. 

. About 30 earthquake engineers, ar- chitects and. building officials discussed a preliminary report on seismic rehabilitation of existing buildings. The report was prepared 

for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. 

The report aims to give advice to 

experts who soon will write national 

recommendations on bolstering existing buildings against a major quake. 

Meanwhile, at the Adam's Mark Hotel downtown, the University of Missouri at Rolla sponsored a national con- ference on recent advances in 

earthquake engineering. 

In an interview at the meeting, a U.S. Geological Survey engineer re- vealed that a downtown building will soon be chosen to house instruments 

in a study of earthquake forces. The 

instruments measure how the entire 

building moves when an earthquake 

hits. 
APPENDIX C-THE PREDICTION IN THE PRESS 

Quake registers 

4.6, rattles area 

By SETH COLEMAN 

News-Democrat 

reported in Missouri. 

179 

5-4-91 

Belleville (Ill.) 

News-Democrat 

Reprinted by permission 

A minor earthquake registering 4.6 on the Richter scale 

.shook the metro-east and six states Friday night. 

The earthquake, centered 10 miles west of New Madrid, 

Mo., and about 150 miles south of St. Louis, hi tat 8:19p.m., 

said John Minsch, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological 

Survey in Golden, Colo. 

Telephone service was interrupted in Newark and Oil 

Trough, Ark., and Malden, Mo., near the quake's epicenter, 

officials said. 

No injuries or damage was reported in the metro-east. 

Tom Ridickas, coordinator for the lllinois Emergency 

Services and Disaster Agency office .in Collinsvill~. felt 

Brian Mitchell, an earthquake expert at St. Louts thetremor. · 

University, called the quake "moderate." 

"It was felt over a number of states, but we haven't bad 

any reports of damage," Minsch said, adding it might not have struck on the New Madrid Fault. 

"The building began to talk to me." he sal d. "It ~tarted to make sounds I'd never heard before." 

"We haven't had time to check," Minsch said. "But it 

He said his office received about two dozen calls after 

the quake. 

was in the fault zone." · "People are saying windows and dishes were rattling~ 

Ridickas said. · In Pocahontas, Ark., a police dispatcher said there was 

a report the quake cracked a basement wall and separated 

the house's dining room wall. Other minor damage was There were also reports in some areas of a second jolt 

about 10 minutes after the first one. 

"We've gotten reports from five states (Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkan- sas and Missouri) including Illinois 

saying that they felt a quake," said 

former state Rep. Ron Stephens, now director of the Illinois Emergency 

Services and Disaster Agency. 

"There's been no report of damage 

and we are happy for that."Residents 

in Mississippi later also reported feeling the earthquake. 

Street in Belleville. "It was like the 

whole house quivered a little bit; and 

my wife felt it also. It didn't last very 

long." 

Sheriff Donald Ray of Jackson 

County, Ark., felt the earth move, too. 

"I was sitting in the chair at Take 

One Video eating an ice cream and 

waffle cone, and it felt like someone was shaking the chair behind me." 

LeAnn Holmes, an aMouncer with 

The quake came five months after KOKR-KNBY in Newport, Ark., said: 

climatologist Iben Browning had sent 

mid-America into a.n earthquakeprevention frenzy with his prediction 

that a major quake would hit the New 

Madrid Fault area on Dec. 3, 1990. "I 

was sitting in a chair in the secondfloor bedroom, when my chair felt 

like it was wiggling," said Robert Kirgraber, who. lives on South Charles 

"We just felt like a tremor,-and then it 

was 25 or 20 secpnds and then another tremor. I thought somebody was trying to break into the radio station." · 

Officials at Memorial Hospital in 

Belleville said no one felt anything 

there, but Tom Vern! .... "'<~flOkesman 

for St. Elizabeth's Hospital in Belle· 

ville had a different account. 

Shook 

Quake Rattles . 

Area, Southeast 

Part Of State 

By Donald E. Franklin 

01 the Post-Dispatch Staff 

A small earthquake along the 

New Madrid Fault swayed 

chandeliers and made buildings 

creak .across the Sl Louis area 

Friday night but caused no 

damage. 

The quake, which measured 

4.6 on the Richter scale, was 

centered 10 mUes west of New 

Madrid In southeastern Missouri, said Brian Mitchell, chairman of earth and atmospheric 

sciences at Sl Louis University. 

"It was the kind we would 

expect every· five years," be" 

said. Mitchell said heavy damage might have occurred if the 

temblor had been.centered in a 

heavily populated area. 

Authorities said the earthquake also rattled parts of Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee an~ Arkansas. No injuries or damage were Immediately reported in these area;;.· Jim . Moore, a tree ttlmmer who 

lives In Affton said he· was watching 

television when the quake began. 

"It felt like somebody .was shaking 

my chair," Moore said. He said that 

when the shaking stopped, he ran out 

Into the front yard and looked around. 

"I thought it might have been the 

big one," he said. 

MltchelJ said he did not feel the 

earth move at hls home In Kirkwood, 

but Gene Pearline, a University City 

auto salesman, said he and his wife 

felt the tremor on the. fourth noor of 

"A couple of patients told nurses 

that they felt a little tremor, but that was it," he said. 

Dozens of metro-east residents c3!-

led area police departments to report 

they had felt the earthquake. • 

Law enforcement officials frorri 

the St. Clair County sheriff's depart{ 

ment, Madison County sheriff's de-: 

partment and the Illinois State Police 

in Collinsville said they had received 

no reports of damage, and Illinois 

Power and Union Electric had no re- ports of power outages. 

The last quake to hit the metro-east 

occured on Sept. 9, 1990. It also re~ 

gistered 4.6 on the Richter scale. ; 

The Richter scale is a measure of 

ground motion as recorded on seismo~ 

graphs. Every increase of one numb-' 

er means a tenfold increase in magnitude. Thus a reading of 7.5 reflects an 

earthquake 10 times stronger than 

oneof6.5. 

An earthquake of 3.5 on the Richte~ 

scale .can cause slight damage in the 

local area, 4 moderate damage, 5 con1 

siderable damage, 6 severe damage.-

A 7 reading is a "major" earthquake. 

capable of widespread heavy damage; 8 is a "great" quake, capable of 

tremendous damage. 

The San Francisco earthquake of 

1906, which occurred before the 

Richter scale· was devised, has been 

estimll ted at 8.3 on the Richter scale.-

Some information for this stoi-li was provided by The Associated 

Press. · 

5-4-91 

St. Louis Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

their apartment building. 

~ . ".We we~e sitting In our den, and the 

buUding shook," Pearline said. "We 

saw the chandelier sway back and 

forth. It was quite a feeling. 

"I thought It was probably an explosion," Pearline said. 

Tom Rldickas, coordinator for the 

Illinois Emergency Services and DIsaster Agency office In Colllnsvllle, 

felt the tremor. 

"The building began to talk to me. It 

started to make sounds I'd never 

heard before. I heard some creaking 

but didn't feel any shock," Rldlckas 

said. · 

Rldlckas's office had received 

about two dozen calls from area residents less than 30 minutes after the 

quake occurred. 

"People are saying windows and 

dishes were rattling," he said. · 

· In northeastern Arkansas, Jackson 

County Sheriff Donald Ray said, "I was ._~lttfng fn, the chair at..T.ake One 

VIdeo eating an Ice cream and warne 

cone, and It felt like someone ·was 

shaking the chair behind me." 

A deputy sheriff In New Madrid 

County said his office was swamped 

with calls just after the quake hit, 

although he said he did not feel lt. He 

said the callers wanted to know if, In 

fact, and earthquake had occurred. 

On Sept. 26, an earthquake centered 

In southeastern Missouri shook a large 

area along the New Madrid· Fault. It 

also measured 4.6 on the Richter 

scale. 

New Madrid County was the scene 

of a media spectacular In December 

when scientist Iben Browning predicted a earthquake for that area. An 

earthquake did not occur. 

The Associated Press contributed 

information for this story. · 

APPENDIX D 

THE COMMERCIAL RESPONSE TO THE 

BROWNING PREDICTION 

Earthquake-related advertising in the weeks preceding December 3, 1990 

INFORMATION PRODUCTS 

,. 

I 

s.m. 

~-A Preparedness Guide for Earthquakes 

· If there is a major earthquake you will be on your own for up to 72 

hours, medical help or other support will be limited. Your children 

might be seperated or badly injured. 

~ You might not have: 

: • Food· 

·• • Water 

; • Utilities 

: • Communications 

• • and/or shelter 

T Pr"octu;;d syuS/..rt, ,-;:;;;_in co;p;;-aik.;-wii~T 

Wh 'II d ? 1 The Center For Eachquake Studies at S.E. 1 at WI you 0 I I Missouri State University. I 

This 46 page, 8% x11' extensive I Send Check or Money Order for '6"" I . plus '1 50 for Ship/Hand to: 

book on sa!ety and surv1val for ' I "OUAKESAFE MIDWEST" I 

before, ~unng and after an eart,h- I 15440 Clayton Rd. I 

quake w1ll tell you exactly what 1 Suite 106 I 

*Pod ions of Proceeds 

needs to be done. I St. Louis, MO 63011 I 

o to Am. Red Cross Disaster Fund. Full Rei~ndii;;-o~~pj;;t~ ;;tisti;d.--

Chesterfield (Mo.) Journal 

Earthquake Emergency Preparedness 

HOTLINE 

CALL 

1-900~535-4900 EXT. 694 

($2.00 per minute) •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 

Weekly Record (New Madrid) 

EARTHQUAKE 

SURVIVAL GUIDE 

Prepare and protect your 

loved ones. Over 50 

common sense things to do 

before. during. and after an 

earthquake·. Send $3.95 to 

lindsey Research 

Associates. P.O. Box 140085. 

St. Louis. MO 63114 
182 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO. EARTHQUAKE 

PREPAREDNESS PRODUCTS 

ATTENTION HOMEOWNERS! 

For information about how to obtain this 

important coverage, please stop by or call us. 

214 N. Main 

285.()565 

Dyersburg, Tn. 

1-800-323-4904 

Dyersburg (Tenn.) State Gazette 

One of the Greatest Hazards of Severe Earthquakes Is the fires 

which result from gas pipe breakage from the shaking of an 

earthquake. Simple and effective, the KOSO Seismic Gas Shut 

off valve guards against this. Now available at ForcumLannom. 

Shuts off the gas line to your home when the earth quakes! 

Prevent a fire with the KOSO Seismic Gas Shut .Off Valve. 

leiForc~;:r~~nom 325 Clark Ave. 285-1154 

Dyersburg (Tenn.) State Gazette 

rotect your home, busmess and schools mterior in the event of a tornado or earthquake. I raEREaDviRJHE~~~~!~ 

EARTIIQUAKE PREPAREDNESS 

Protect yourself with lnsul*film Security Coating, it is: 

* Effective against hurricanes, tornadoes, explosior.s 

* Burglar resistant (strengthens and holds glass together) 

* Resistant to "smash and grab' 

* Effective against U.V. infiltration 

l~,~~\wrtl'(11Tif''riWVIJ 

!ENJOY 24-HOUREARTHOUAKE DETECTION I 

I

YOU'LL SLEEP EASIER KNOWING YOU HAVE ONE! I 

* LOUD SIREN *ADJUSTABLE SENSITIVITY I * SElF:-CONTAINED * 9voltBATIERYnotinduded I 

ONLY $19.95 EA. + $4 shipping & handling I ORDER NOW! SEND CHECK OR M/ORDER I 

MO RESIDENTS ADD SALES TAX 

I RICHTER ALARMS, INC. (314) 527-7700 I 

2129 BARRETT STATION RD. STE 306

1 I ST. LOUIS, MO 63131 

NAME PHONE I 

Apply Insul*film Security Coating today, staying safe was never simpler. I ADDRESS APT --

I ciTY ST- ZIP I 

Delta Living 

JIMMY BRADLEY'S 

HOME IMPROVEMENT 

Hwy. 463 South Jonesboro 

. ALLOW 6 TO 8 WEEKS FOR DEUVERY 

Lio..!!'Y,!!O~·~CI!.!,U~~E~ 

Riverfront Times (St. Louis) 
APPENDIX D-COMMERCIAL RESPONSE TO TI:IE PREDICTION 183 

PREPAREDNESS PRODUCTS 

EARTHQUAKE 

EARLY WARNING 

SYSTEMS 

TIME IS LIFE! . lhls new dev1ce detects the low 

frequency SOl.nd waves1hat precede 

a comW1g ecrthquoke shock. So It con 

give you as m..~ch as 30 seconds 

waning time before the corring 

earthquake and may save yOU' lfe.For 

this dev1ce plus on earthquake survlvd 

guide. send $32 to: 

Chen & Associates 

P.O. Box 15822 

St. Louis, MO 63114 

366-7222 

5390 FOX PLAZA 

DRIVE 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Essential Emergency. Equipment Pack 

Each E' Plk contains essential equipment, supplies and Instructions 

for use during a widespread amer&eney such as an earthquake, flood 

or major stonn all packaged for Immediate use. For home or office. 

• 2 Gallons Water • Drinking Cups 

• Meal Pecka (for about 12 Meals) • Cooking Heat (Sterno) 

• Dust Mask • bllet Tluue 

• Water Purlflc:atloll System • Waste Dlspoul Bags 

• Medical I'Kk • Can Opener 

• Space Blankets · • Disposable Uctrter 

• Radio with Battery • Flashlight with Batteries 

•10' of Rope • Whistle 

• bwelettee • Spare Batteries 

• Garbaee Bees • Instructions 

The supplies and equipment contained In the E' Plk will sustain you 

and your family for approximately three days, sufficiently long for 

professional disaster assistance personnel to clear roads and restore 

normal utility and communications services. 

(Plus $3.87 Sales lax & 

$3.00 Shiopin& & HancUini'J·· 

Custom Business Pack&.,. 

also evalleble. 

S399S 

(P\ua SS.10 5ales11• 1nd 53.00 Shippinl) 

UPSwtll deliver your£' 1'111 to your door. 

call Nowl753-5136 or 

1-800-284-5546 . Outside Memphis 

to order your E' PH lbdey. we Accept VIsa and Mastercard 

1b Order by Cheek: Send cost of PIII.CK plus shipping & taxes to: 

Name'-· -------------------

COMPR~IVE 

MEDICALA\CK 

$1995 

(!'Ius 51.55 Sales Tax & 

$3.00 ShipplnJ & HandlinJ) 

Genesis He<bcare 

~~"'---------------------- 813Tmo~rC~ek Cord09L Tenneaaee 38018 

City· tote'-· _____ .z;p'-·--

Cheek One 0 P Pak 0 Oelu. £1 Plk 0 Comprehensiw Medical Pack 

Delta Living 
184 RESPONSES TO PREDICfiON OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

COMMEMORATIVE CLOTHING 

·---------------------· Unique Design - Limited Edition 

EARTHQUAKE 

• CAPS • 

• T-SHIRTS • 

• SWEATSHIRTS • 

•.. . ;

~.,. 1;1111118 ;::;., •. X; .Jl,":>'<~ .'1 

Available Now At 

·PAR.GAS 

____________ New Ma~rjd ... Weekly Record (New Madrid) 

ARE YOU READY? 

118 R I N G 0 N II 

THE QUAKE 

Neon T -Shirts/Pr~ Graphics 

RSN Specialty Products 

P.O. Box 1341 

St. Charles, MO 63302 

$.9.95 + $1 Shipping/Handling 

M-L-X-XX 

"GET ONE BEFORE 

lT G_ETS YOU" 

ORDER TODAY 

' 

S~ipping and. Handling· 

Shirtquake · · P.O. Box 45188 _ 

: . > _ SL Lquis, MO 6314S : ·: •. /~· 

\' . (314)~. 426-7225· "~;, iJr. . . . . 

Riverfront Times (St. Louis) 

" SIID\11\IED I :;JIIVItl..., ••• 

THE N~W MADRiD 

FAUL~ .. 

.. 1 

ST. LOUIS, M~SSOURI 

OEC~MBER 3, 19go 

Riverfront Times 

T-shirt sales were booming at a shop near Reelfoot Lake 

(Memphis Commercial Appeal). 
APPENDIX D-COMMERCIAL RESPONSE TO TIIE PREDICTION 185 

I > One-Of-A-Kind ; 

1 Earthquake 1 I T-Shirts & Sweat Shirts I 

I THI: S, M, L, XL In assorted colors (may list two I 

I color choices) PRICE: $12 + $2 shpng. I 

I Sweats: S, M, L, XL In white, gray & blue PRICE: I 

I $20 + $3 shpng. (XXL $22 + $3) I 

I ~ I 

I I 

I c~ I 

I I 

I ~~ - I I ·. · I "' ~ Tee:Size 1stcolor 2ndcolor I 

I I 1 Sweat: size _1st color __ 2nd color__ 1 

1 Mall to: Chamber of Commerce, P.O. Box 96, I 

I ·PhoiD by Rafph Palmer • Model ShiMon. ADI'Id Be ;~:::~d~~~~~eck I 

···············--···············-· Weekly Record (New Madrid) 

~HE COTTAGE RESTAURANT 

DECEMBER 3, 1990 

QUAKE CUISINE 

Try our dessert special 

~~ACJiCAKE 

Offer good ·thru Dec. 6th 

The 

Terrace Holiday Inn 

Dyersburg 

.\) A great place to meet with friends. 

1' 1 ,.,....,_ __ A ii ( !/ --:-"'=-"~ 

Dyersburg (Tenn.) State Gazette 

Our Most 

J:.AffH SHAK/Nq SPJ:.CIAL$ 

Of The Day 

Served on paper plates (for your utoty) prevents cracking during moat. 

#1. CHICKEN FRIED QUAKE topped with tben Brown gravy, 

Smashed Talers, Toppled Pole Beans & 

Crumb Cake (for dessert) 

$4.75 

#2. CRACKED RIBS OF BEEF 

Turned·up Greens, Sandied Yams (direct from Bud Boogie Beach) 

Cracl<borry Cobbler (for dossort) 

$4.90 

1#3. CHICKEN AND CRUMPLINS 

Brickoled beets 

Crack salad topped with Chipped bricks 

Tumbled Pyramid Jello (for dessert) 

$4.35 

All of the above served with choice of Mississippi Mud or Wolle River Bottom Tea 

Served in styrofoam cups (you guess why?) 

I :ATE :AT Ttl£ CO'ff Njt. ON J)J:.Ct:.M!J£.1'( .3. 1990 

Menu from a restaurant in the New Madrid region 
186 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

ALL IN FUN 

Hap's Bar & Grill 

Earthquake Party 

December 3 

Shake, Rattle & Roll 

j Billy Tarkington) 

Saturday, Dec. 8 

Weekly Record (New Madrid) 

Afraid of earthquakes destroying your property? Disrvpting your 

life? Spoiling your social functions? Thanks to new Seizmic Earthquake 

Repellent you may never be bothered by annoying earthquakes again. 

That's because Seizmic is the only earthquake repellent clinically 

proven to give long-lasting protection against quakes, shakes, tremors, 

after-shocks, and even those hard to reach plate tectonics. 

Seizmic gives three-way protection. It penetrates, seals and protects 

those nasty fault lines, eliminating the muss and fuss of earthquake 

dean-up. 

So, don't let the Madrid run you out of Memphis, protect your home 

with Seizmic, and watch your neighbors crumble. 

Seizmk is giJOil1ntHd 10 bt absllivttly hilatialll at yav1 mDIIty b«Jr. S.Umic moitls • glfQt gih. HIM lrilndJ in (lliilamia? Kn ... JDmtDfliiDQ,ing WOJtwl!a) Jhalting in thli1 Jii!J<J? G.t tfltm a 

bo"lt af s.umic. E.oryane wi/1/o.e ill DOll nat malct • 911D/ (hriJIIIIDJ gih /22 dayo /a/all). 

Let's 

QUAKE 

RATTLE 

&ROLL 

SHAKERS LOUNGE 

HOLIDAY INN 

MONDAY,DECEMBER3RD 

We're quaking to the music of 

THE BUNCH 

And rattling our bones til the walls come tumbling 

down. Come Join In The Fun 

~~ 

l~a~7's5 lln.P:'O,U,.. • • C\1A tA0 

Blytheville \ \ \J \...U..,.~ i::J Y \.A'-" 

Attn. Members & Guett 

The Hap's Bar party in progress (Arkansas Democrat). 
APPENDIX ~OMMERCIAL RESPONSE TO THE PREDICTION 

GOOD EXCUSE FOR A SALE 

EARTHBREAKING· SPECIALS 

We are shakinQ the grounds of our 145 acre farm earlier than the predicted earthquake & celebrating 

----~ our digg~ng season by offering low. prices on quality trees. We are digging thousands of trees out of our Tennessee soil this year. and invite you to share in the 

savings and peaceful natural setting of our family farm. 

BUY DIRECT AND SAVE 

Give the lifetime lasting gift of a tree ALL CONTAINER TREES 

to yours arid all of ours on Earth. PINK & WHITE DOGWOODS 

HURRY! SALE ENDS 12-4-90 6~~~NtE~~~LES P~A~~~~ 

DABNEY NURSERY "A Tranquil Creative Experience" 

Sales-Growing Center 

5576 Hacks Cross Road 

(901) 755-4037 

Memphis Commercial Appeal 

Mon.-Sat. 9-5 

Sunday 12-5 7641 

Bartlett Branch 

64 Bartlett 

) 373-5977 

187 

APPENDIX E 

PREPAREDNESS LITERATURE 

Examples of earthquake preparedness publications available in the New Madrid 

ion in late 1990 

EARTHQUAKE 

AWARENESS 

HELPFUL 

HINTS 

To PREPARE 

FoRAN 

EARTHQUAKE 

Covers of brochures distributed by two local businesses. 
190 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

FEMA 113 I September 1986 

( Supenedes FEMA 47 end FEMA 49 which may be used) 
APPENDIX E-PREP AREDNESS LITERATURE 191 

27 things to help you 

• survive an 

Midwesterners are becoming aware o.f the· potential of 

an earthquake creating damage and dangerous _ 

conditions. So if we don't properly prepare, the next 

quake may cause greater persona1 damage than 

necessary. Each item listed below won't stop the 

next earthquake but it may help you survive in a better way. 

4 basics to do during 

an earthquake 

1. STAY CALM! 

2. Inside: Stand in a doorway, or crouch under a 

-desk or table, away from windows or glass 

d,ividers. Don't rush outside. Do not 'use stairs or 

eievators while the building is shaking or while 

there is danger of being hit by falling glass or 

debris. Only in the case of an emergency should 

you use your telephone. 

3. Outside: Stand away from buildings, trees, 

telephone and electric lines. 

4. On the road: Drive away from 

underpasses/overpasses; stop in safe area; stay in 

vehicle. 

6 basics to do after 

an earthquake 

1. Check for injuries-provide first aid. 2. Check· for safety-check for gas, water, s_ewage 

breaks; check for downed electric lines afld shorts; 

tum off appropriate' utilities; check for building 

damage and potential safety problems during 

aftershocks such as cracks around chimney and 

foundations. 

3. Clean up dangerous spills. 

4. Wear shoes. Tum on radio and listen for instructions from ~P..,. ':!lie safety agencies. 

6. Don't use the telephone except _for emergencr use. 

earthquake 

14 survival items to keep on hand 

1. Portable radio with extra batteiies 

2. Flashlight with extra batteries 

3. First aid kit-including specific medicines neede<i 

for members of your household. 

4. First aid book 

5. Fire extinguisher 

6. Adjustable wrench for turning off gas and wate. 

7. Smoke detector properly installed 

8. Portable fire escape ladder for homes/apartments 

with multiple floors. 

9. Bottled water-sufficient for the number of 

members in your household. 

10. Canned and dried foods sufficient for a week for 

each member of your household. NOTE: Both 

water and food should be rotated into normal 

meals of household so as to keep freshness. 

·canned goods have a normal shelf life of one 

year for maximum freshness. 

11. Non-electric can opener. 

12. Portable stove such as butan~ or charcoal. 

NOTE: Use ·of such stoves should not take-place 

until it is deterinined that there is no gas leak in 

the area. Charcoal should be burned only out of 

doors. Use of charcoal indoors will lead to carbon 

monox.ide poisoning. ' 

· 13. Matches 

14. Telephone numbers of police, fire and doctor. 

3 things you need to know 

1. How to turn off gas, water and electricity 

2. First Aid 

3. Plan for reuniting your family 

+ American Red Cross 
192 RESPONSES TO PREDICfiON OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 
APPENDIX E---PREP AREDNESS LITERATURE 193 
'" EARTHQUAKE @. PREPAREDNESS ". "'"" """·"""'"· ""'""'· '"" 

FROM THE EDITOR 

For The Concerned: 

Earthquake Guide We Hope 

Never Has To Be Tested 

By William F. Woo 

The decision to publish the booklet that is in your hands was 

made on the afternoon of Sept. 26, in a meeting attended 

by senior editors of the Post-Dispatch and led by William 

Allen, our science writer. By coincidence, on that very morning 

an earthquake measuring 4.6 on the Richter Scale occurred 

south of Cape Girardeau, causing minimal damage but refocusing attention on the chance of a more serious seismic event 

along the Ne~ Madrid Fault. 

Our meeting, however, had been scheduled well in advance of 

the temblor. Public concern about a major 

earthquake in the St. Louis area had been 

developing since the big Lorna Prieta 

quake in the San Francisco area last October and it had been greatly intensified 

because of the predictions of !ben Browning, whose unorthodox methodology has 

made him controversial in seismological 

circles. 

Some people had claimed that Browning had correctly predicted the Lorna 

Prieta event, and late last year it was 

learned he had asserted a 50-50 chance of 

William F. 

Woo 

IID-1I2J 

BEFORE AN EARTHQUAKE 

• Earthquake scenario: Here's what could happen to 

you and your home during a major earthquake .. . ... 3 

• The way they work: The first step in preparing for 

earthquakes is understanding the variety of forces at 

work .. . . . ............ .. . . ........... . ...... 3 

• Safe at home: Steps to protect your home range from 

cheap and simple to elaborate and expensive. Here's a 

list from which to choose .. . .. . . .. ...... . .... .. . 4 

• Survival Kit: A list of items to serve you well if an 

earthquake puts your home out of commission ..... 5 

• Practice makes perfect: A family earthquake drill can 

help keep your loved ones safe ... .... .... .... ... 6 

• Help thy'rieighbor: A neighborhood organization can 

· reduce chaos and provide protection in the event of an 

earthquake! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 

• Help for the disabled, elderly: Often it's older adults 

and the disabled who suffer most in natural disasters, but 

much can be done to reduce the risk of injury before an 

earthquake . ....... . .......... . ............. 6 

• To buy or not to buy: That's the question for homeowners considering earthquake insurance ......... 6 

• Calming the kids: Earthquakes can create long-term 

emotional difficulties for children. Some tips for coping 

with them . ... . .. ..... . .. . .. . . .. ...... . . . ... . 8 

• High Anxiety: The best way to overcome earthquake 

phobias is to be prepared, the experts say . .. . . .... 8 

• Terra firma? Whether your home or office will be 

damaged by an earthquake depends in large part on the 

soil on which they stand ...... .. ....... .. ... . . 10 

DURING AN EARTHQUAKE 

• Drop, cover, hold: When an earthquake hits, you've 

got just a few seconds to find protection. Here's what to 

do if you are in your home, your office, a car, a high-rise 

building, a school, or a supermarket . ...... . . . ... 12 

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an earthquake of 7.0 or more on the Richter Scale in the New Madrid Fault. This event was to occur within 48 hours of Dec. 3. Such an earthquake 

could cause billions of dollars in damage and the loss of life. 

As more became known about Browning's predictions, 

apprehension began to rise. Civil preparedness officials reported increasing numbers of calls from worried citizens. School 

officials began to ask what should' be done. Government officials 

began to look at earthquake prepared{less plans. Earthquakes 

became the talk of the talk shows. • ;: •. 

Browning's predictions might be dismissed by the seismQlogical establishment, but reputable scientists ·using conventional 

forerasting techniques already had set the odds of a 7.0 earth· 

quake along the New Madrid Fault at about 30 percent within 15 

years. Sooner or later the earth was go_ing to shake violently:' 

The question for us was, what should the Post-Dispatch dO .. in 

response to the developing public anxiety? To fuel apprehension 

and possibly set offa panic would be irresponsible. ~ut whilt If 

we carried on as usual, making.no special effort, and art earth· 

quake occurred? The knowledge thalwe ,cjiuldhave h~lpeM>Ur 

readers- but did nothing ::,_ would bj! hi.fu.J ~i:abl~>::· f/;:.~; "':'' 

We sought advice; .from civil prepare!l e~~.ftlc.la~Jrqwll1e 

Army engineers, from newspapers in the,Saii'Fralicisco area, .s 

from experts in seismology; geology and ptib!ic'health. Bill Allen was assigned to compile a comprehensive report, showing what 

might happen in an earthquake and how casualties and property 

damage could be minimized. He was asked to assess Browning's 

prediction in the light of prevailing seismic theory. 

At our meeting on Sept. 26, we learned that there is a great 

deal that individuals can do to lengthen their odds of coming 

through an earthquake safely. We learned about simple household precautions and adjustments that can be undertaken and 

that these are well within the competence and economic means 

of most of our readers. We learned that there are basic steps that 

can be taken by families with small children to maximize safety 

and minimize the psychological burden of earthquake anxiety. 

And because the~e "obvious" things were not obvious to ils, the 

editors, we reasoned that they might not be obvious to you, the 

readers. Hence, the decision to publish this guide. 

In simple terms,- it would tell what to do before, during and 

after an.ea.rthquake. It would also tell something about earth· 

quakes, to take tlte mystery out of the event. It would be a lowkeyed product, easy to read 11nd as comprehensive as possible. 

Most important, it should h&Ve a shelf life well beyond Dec. 3. 

Ten days ago, we met to reconsider the decision. Earthquake 

experts, meeting·in St. Louis, had denounced Browning's: predictions as quackery. In light of this, should we proceed?·· 

The answer; unanimously, was yes. The assumption that a 

major temblor will take place along the; New IV!ai:lrid F~i~ lt 

remained undisputed. The only question is .when': Ourconclu: 

sion: Better'tocdo it now, while the subject is fresh in ou~ readers' 

minds, than later when they may be le!;S interested in· earth· · 

quakes or less i~ ii!led to take prudent preparatory steps. 

So here it is, a booklet full of advice that we hope will never 

have to be tested. I _think you will find it helpful and re8$Suring. 

AFTER AN EARTHQUAKE 

• After the quake: When the dust settles, move cautiously, find your family members and check on the 

integrity of your home .. . . . .. . .. .. .... .. .. . . . . . 14 

• Aftershocks: After the big one hits, there could be 

more ..... .. . . . ... . .............. . .. . .. : .. 14 

• Long-term recovery: Tips on how to deal with your 

insurance company and get your house back in order 14 

• Haywire: Even a moderate earthquake could create 

havoc with pipelines, telephone and electric service . 15 

• Getting back to normal: It may take as long as a 

decade for the metropolitan area to recover from a major 

earthquake . ...... . ... . ... . . . . . ... . ... . . . . . 1 7 

• Helping hand: A major quake. will likely bring with it 

offers of assistance from a v11riety of agencies . . . . . 17 

LIVING ON THE FAULT LINE 

• Healthy skepticism: Take earthquake predictions 

with a grair] of salt. The science of earthquake prediction 

is in its infancy . . . .. .. . . . .. .. . . . .. . ... . ... . .. 13 

• Damage Estimates: A look at the death and damage 

estimates predicted for New Madrid quakes . . . .. . . 15 

• Understanding the fault: Lying 10 to 12 miles beneath the e'arth's surface, the New Madrid Fault produces 200 minor earthquakes a year and has the poten-

. tial to unleash a big one at any time. Here's why .. .. 16 

• Checklists: One checklist each for government officials, school administrators and business leaclers to 

prepare their facilities and employees for a da(llaging 

·eartl)quake . . . .. ... ..... . ...... . . . . . .... .. . 18 

• More information: Lists of books and pamphlets 

where you can get more information . ... . 18,19,20 

l'tj)!•llf1 

STAFF 

Principal Repqrter: William Allen 

Writers: Tom Uhlenbrock, Jerri Stroud, Theresa 

Tighe, William Flannery 

News Aide: PiiUI Hampel 

Art Director: 'Tony Lazorko 

Artists: Jim Cook, Tom Borgman, Chuck Groth 

Photographers: Jim Forbes, Ted Dargan I . 

Section Editbr: Richard H. Weiss 

0 

Agencies, businesses and universities that 

contributed information and expertise to this guide: 

American Red Cross,'-Bay Area Regional Earthquake 

Preparedness Project;-Better Business Bureau, 

Central Hardware ;- C~ntral United States Earthquake 

Consortium, Center'for E;arthquake Studies at 

Southeast Missouri State University, Environmental 

Volunteers Inc., Federal Emergency Management 

Agenc:;y, Illinois Emergency Services and Disaster 

Agency; IQSllrance Information Institute, Laclede Gas 

co .. , Mempni.$ S'a~~ l)niyersity, Missouri Department of 

Naturcil Resources; Missouri:State Emergency 

Miuiageme.(lt Agency, National Science Teachers 

Association·, St. Charles County Emergency 

Management Agency, St. Louis Gity Emergency 

Mah,agementAgency, St. Louis County Emergency 

Management Agency, St. Louis University, Soil 

Consultants Inc., Southwestern Bell Telephone Co., 

U.S. Geological Survey, United Way and Washington 

University. 

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" · """ "'"·"'""'"· '"''" "· ""' EARTHQUAKE ®. PREPAREDNESS '" 

Source: Federal Emergency Management Agency Post-Dispatch Graphic/ James Cook 

How A Quake Works: Sorting Out 

Shakes, Rattles, Rolls- And What They Do 

William Allen Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

The first step in preparing for an 

earthquake is to understand 

how a quake works. Experts say 

that quakes don't cause damage and 

injuries- buildings and other objects 

shaken by a quake do. 

Just what shakes you and your 

home, and how does it cause damage? 

Earthquake forces have many different components. The most important one is a violent horizontal movement of the ground that shakes 

buildings- and anyone or anything in 

·it-from side to side. 

This earthquake force accelerates 

the llouse or other building in one 

direction at ground level. The force 

then reverses. This forward-and-back 

cycle can be repeated many times. 

Meanwhile, because of its weight, 

the building itself exerts a force that 

resists the movement brought on by 

the ground acceleration. This resisting 

force is known as inertia. 

Like a passepger standing on a 

quickly accelerating bus, the foundation of the building may lurch ahead 

with the ground movement, leaving 

the top of the building behind. Then 

the top begins to overcome its interia 

and move. But by then, the ground and 

foundation are already moving back 

in the opposite direction. 

As a result, door frames, wiridows, 

structural beams, walls and other 

parts get twisted and jolted every 

which way. 

Putsimply, the damage caused by 

quake forces depends on three things: 

how fast the ground shakes, the distance it moves with each shake and 

how long the shakes continue. j;:ven 

small movements can be disastrous if 

they are rapid and long-tasting. 

In heavier buildings, more force is 

exerted, and greater damage can be 

expected. 

The amount of damage atso depends on how well a building has been 

designed and constructed. The exact 

damage cannot be predicted, because 

no two buildings behave the same, 

experts say. 

Still, scientists and engineers agree 

on some trends. 

• New buildings generally sustain 

less damage than older ones, which 

were built to earlier codes. Structures 

designed or "retrofitted" with seismic 

resistance do better than structures 

with no seismic design attention. 

• Steel and wood-frame buildings 

survive better than unreinforced masonry structures. 

• Most people are safe at home if 

they live in a one- or two-story woodframe building. These structures are 

best at absorbing earthquake 

vibrations. 

• Common problems in woodframe buildings include the collapse 

of unreinforced brick chimneys. Some 

older wood-frame houses may be hazardous if they are not adequately bolted to the foundation or if they have 

short "cripple" walls that are not 

braced adequately. Cripple walls are 

often found between the foundation 

and the first floor. 

• The common form of damage in 

unreinforced masonry buildings is 

collapse of the load-bearing wallsthe walls that support tile structure. 

• Mobile homes, portable classrooms and modular buildings can 

slide off their foundations during a 

quake. 

• No matter what the structure, t~e 

contents of all buildings are subject lo 

shaking. 

Each building has its own vibratiopal characteristics. These depend on 

building height, type of structure an•) 

See WORK, Page\7 

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Quake Scenario: 

Experts Give Opinion 

Of What It Might Be Like 

By William Allen 

Of the Post·Dispatch Staff 

E arthquakes strike ·without warning. Emergency

-pre-

paredness experts say a major quake could leave parts of 

the St. Louis region without power, fuel, water and other 

necessities at any moment. 

Residents may be on their own for several days in the dead of 

winter or heat of summer. Here, drawn from accounts by the 

American Red Cross and federal and St. Louis County officials, is 

how it might happen and what the result could be: 

A ~ajor Quake Strikes 

It starts with a low, rumbling, roaring sound. The noise builds 

for 10 seconds, getting louder and louder. Then, Wham! There's a 

terrific jolt, like someone suddenly slammed on the brakes in a car 

or a truck just rammed against the side of the building. 

The floor seems to move. It's hard to stand up, or even stay 

seated. If standing, it's like riding a raft down a fast river. When 

walking, it

's iike trying to walk on a trampoline or waterbed. 

Someone says, "Earthquake! Drop and cover!" · 

The shaking and commotion may last 60 seconds or longer. 

The building creaks and rattles. Books fall from the bookcase. 

Hanging lamps and plants sway. Suddenly a pot falls to the floor 

and smashes, spilling the plant. A windowpane shatters and glass 

falls to the floor. A table slides across the room. A chair tips over. 

Outside, dogs bark and cats meow. Babies cry in the distance. 

People shout and scream. The shaking makes church bells ring. 

You hear crashing sounds, from brick chimneys and other loose 

parts of buildings falling to the ground. Trees sway and scrape 

against the walls. 

Inside, pictures move on their nails. One falls and crashes to the 

floor. Desk drawers slide open. Lights flicker on and off. Then they 

go off. Doors swing back and forth on their hinges. Some of.them 

bang shut. Dishes slide out of cabinets. The water heater falls over 

with a crash. 

See HOME, Page 7 SourQe; fWra} ~'T'(;~~flC¥ !vfa(lagemf!Q( !Jgency 

Secure top-heavy furniture to wall 

studs with metal braces. 

("";;\ Locate main electrical and gas 

~ switches for emergency shut·off. 

(";;\ Stabilize water.heater with metal V straps to wall studs. 

("":;\ Use flexible connectors where gas \!.I lines meet appliances, if local 

codes permit. 

fa\ Keep fire extinguisher In accessible V place. 

® Keep emergency supplies on hand, 

including drinking water, canned or 

dried foods, first aid kit, flashlight 

and portable radio with extra 

batteries. 

~ Place secure latches on cupboards 

~ to prevent doors from swinging 

open. 

@ Keep heavy, unstable objects away 

from exit routes and anchor wheels. 

~ Replace heavy hangings over bed 

~ with lightweight alternatives. 

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"' EARTHQUAKE ®. PREPAREDNESS "· ''"" """·""'""· ""'" "· """ 

Checklist: Tips On What To Do To Make Your Home Safer 

By Tom Uhlenbrock 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

A quake is coming, experts agree. The question is 

when. So what's a homeowner to do to prepare for 

the shake, rattle and roll? Plenty. 

Steps range from the cheap and simple - like moving heavy 

objects off lligll sllelves- to the more industrious. like bolting 

a frame !louse to its foundation. 

Here is a homeowner's checklist. Many tasks can be accom- plished on a Sunday afternoon. A little preparation today can 

mean less damage and fewer-injuries tomorrow. 

Hanging objects: The movement of tile earth doesn't 

necessarily injure, but it does knock down objects.tllat do. Ligllt 

~ixtures, sucll as chandeliers, and hanging plants should be 

~ecured witll closed-eye screws into wooden studs. Ditto for ~eavy paintings or pictures, mirrors and sllelves on walls. Take special care with lleavy objects over beds, chairs or ouclles; consider relocating tllem. At tile minimum, use lighteight containers, ratller tllan clay, for plants. Angle brackets 

$crewed into studs may be necessary for tile heaviest wall ~angings. If an object is close enougll to a window to break it 

fhile swaying, move it. . 

'! Tall, heavy furniture and bookcases: Free-standing 

furniture - sucll as bookcases, china cabinets and modular 

wall:!lnits - can topple in an earthquake. These should be 

secured to tile wall witll metal angle or L-sllaped brackets. 

Move lleavy, unstable item~ l!way from exit routes. 

Shelves:-Heavy or breaKable objects sllould be moved to 

·lower sllelves. Fislling line and eye screws can be used to secure tllem in place. A piece of wooden molding fastened to 

~lle front of sllelves will act as a lip and keep objects from ~liding off. Anotller option is placing a wire barrier across a 

sllelf front. Be sure tllat adjustable sllelves cannot slide off 

their supports. 

i Cabinets: Clleck latclles on kitcllen and bathroom cabinets 

lo make sure they close securely and would keep contents from 

spilling out during a lleavy sllaking. Childproof latclles are 

cheap, easily installed and llidden from view. For tile base- ment and garage, use !look-and-eye latclles. Magnetic "touch" 

latclles sllould be replaced. 

Utilities: Locate your gas, water and electric utilities, and 

know !low to sllut them off. Attach an adjustable wrench in a plastic bag to your gas meter. (After a quake, do not immedi- Sources: U.S; Geological Survey and Central Hardware Post-Dispatch Graphic/ James Cook 

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ately turn.off your gas, because it could be some time before 

ttte utility company. can return service. Turn off the gas only if 

you detect an odor or notice a large consumption of gas being 

registered on the meter. Do not use matches, lighters or open 

flames in the home until you have checked for leaks.) 

Beds: Place beds so that they are not near large windows or 

hanging lights. Heavy mirrors or wall hangings should not be 

located above the bed. Heavy table lamps on bedstands should 

be replaced with lighter lamps. 

Bathrooms: Remove gl&ss bottles from top shelves in 

medicine cabinets. Remove glass containers from around the 

bathtub. 

Appliances: Refrigerators and other heavy appliances on 

rollers- including televisions on movable stands- should be 

blocked in place. Large appliances in the garage or basement may 

be secured to wall studs with flexible cable, braided wire or ·strapping. Add bracing to secure window air conditioners. Install 

flexible connectors on all gas appliances, where allowed by local 

building codes. Electronic equipment such as computers, stereos 

and microwaves may be secured by using double-stick tape or Velcro fasteners. A restraining edge on a cabinet or shelf will keep 

a unit from sliding off. 

Overhanging trees: Take a walk outside, and look for large, 

old trees that lean over the house. Check for root rot or dead 

branches, and remove those that would fall onto the roof. 

Hazardous materials: Identify poisons, cleaners, solvents 

and pesticides in breakable containers, and move them to a 

low, ventilated storage area. Discard those no longer needed. 

Use plastic, rather than glass, containers when possible. Bungee cords may be used to keep containers in place. 

Fire extinguishers: Distribute several small fire extinguishers in strategic, accessible locations around the house, 

and know how to use them. 

Chimney and roof: Check for loose bricks or tile, and 

make necessary repairs. Older brick chimneys may be braced 

or replaced above the roof line with an all-metal brick veneer 

chimney. A contractor may be necessary for this job. Plywood 

See SAFE, Page 5 

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"· ""'" """~'"''""· "'""~;AKE ® PREPAREDNESS 

~ 

SH 

Post-Dispatch 

You can find most of the items you need for an earthquake survival kit at a 

hardware or grocery store. Chances are you already have many of these 

items around the house. 

Survival Kits: They -Must Be Well-Stocked 

By Tom Uhlenbrock 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

,No one knows when a damaging 

earthquake will strike, but 

when it does, the families who 

have prepared an emergency kit will 

probably be better off than their 

neighbors. 

Already, many merchants are offering pre-packaged "survival kits." But 

before sending away for one, think 

about whether it fits your family's special needs. You should also compare 

prices. 

of light. Remember to store extra fuel, 

matches, wickS' and mantles. Candles 

also can be included, as can chemical 

reaction iightstic'ks. (Caution: Do not 

use matches, candles, lamps or an 

open flame until you are certain there 

are no gas leaks.) 

Radio: An AM/FM portable radio, 

with extra batteries, may be your best 

source of information. Pay phones 

may be in service sooner than home 

phones. 

First aid book and supplies: 

These should include one bottle of 

juices. Don't forget food for your pet. 

Food supplies should be rotated periodically, so mark dates on cans. Qthe( 

supplies include small butane stove, 

can opener, paper plates, cups. 

Toilet items: Remember toilet 

paper, soap, toothpaste, sanitary napkins and plastic trash bags, which can 

be used for sanitary disposal. 

. Among other items that may be 

considered: 

Barbecue grill and supplies: 

Remember, charcoal can cause carbon monoxide poisoning if burned 

CASEV1S 

SPORTS 

FAMILY EMERGENCY 

PREPAREDNESS CHECKLIST 

W) EMERGENCY r-. BLANKETS 

ALL WEATHER BLANKETS 

FOLDING COTS 

THERMAL PADS AND 

AIR MATTRESSES 

!I PORTABLE 

SHOVEL 

HAND AXE 

BOW SAW 

W) FIRSTAID r-. KIT 

EMERGENCY SURVIVAL 

HANDBOOK 

BOY SCOUT HANDBOOK 

W) HANDHELD r-. FLASHLIGHTS 

POCKET FLASHLIGHTS 

FLUORESCENT LANTERNS 

REPLACEMENT BATTERIES 

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Here are some items that experts 

agree could prove useful for 72 hours 

after a disaster when a family may be on its own. 

Bottled water: Have enough for one gallon per day per person. Water 

purification methods such as chlorine 

bleach and cheese cloth also should be 

stored. Keep water in air-tight con- tainers, and rotate every six to nine 

months. Empty plastic milk jugs can be used to store water, if thoroughly cleaned. Remember, an undamaged 

hot water heater can provide up to 50 

gallons of usable water. Water can be purchased in fivegallon jugs, and should be kept out of 

the sunlight. 

A 72-hour water supply is the minimum; a two-week supply is 

recommended. 

Flashlights: One heay.y-duty 

flashlight per person is recommended. Remember to include extra batteries and bulbs. 

Lanterns, candles: camping 

lanterns provide an excellent source 

Safe 

From page Four 

alcohol and hydrogen peroxide, small 

bandages, tape, scissors, iodine, aspirin, sharp knife, clean sheet and any 

special medical items such as heart 

medication, insulin, etc. Tools: These can include a crow- bar, ax, hand saw, hammer and nails, 

I 00 feet of nylon rope and a crescent 

wrench. The wrench is especially important for turning off utilities. 

Fire extinguisher: Experts rec- ommend that several small extin- guishers be placed in accessible spots around the house. 

Bedding materials: Blankets or sleeping bags should be part of your 

kit. 

Warm clothing: Put aside extra 

coats or jackets, leather work gloves. Include sturdy shoes suitable for walking through debris. 

Food and utensils: Experts rec- ommend having on hand canned food, 

including meats, vegetables and fruits; 

cereals; dehydrated camping packages; powdered milk; and canned 

indoors. 

Portable generator: A geilerator·can provide a safe source for light- ing, cooking and refrigeration. It 

should be operated in an open area. Miscellaneous:Tent, chain saw, 

kerosene heater and extra prescrip- tion glasses might come in handy. 

•Storing Supplies: Once the supplies are gathered, It is important that 

they be properly stored. They will do llttl~ good if located In an area not 

accessible after a quake, or if dam: 

aged or destroyed during the disaster. ·One suggestion is to place the sup- plies in moisture-proof bags inside a large, covered trash container. The 

container should be placed in a cool, 

.dr;y place. 

Exactly where to locate !he supplies is up to the individual homeowner. 

Some experts have suggested under a bed,· or in a garage or closet. Choose a location where the supplies will be out 

qfthe way, but accessible in an emer- gency. Some experts suggest storing 

lierns·in several places. 

wood should be bolted at 6-foot inter- garage" construction may need 

vals with half-inch anchor b\)lts em- strengthening by adding an Internal 

bedded in the concrete foundation. A franie. An engineer should be consulthandy homeowner may tackle this ed. Tying the masonry walls to the 

nailed to ceiling joists can protect oc- task, or hire a contractor. floors may be expensive. 

cupants from fall_ing bricks if a roof Another possible weakness under Mobile homes: A mobile home 

Jacks solid_ sheathmg. the ground floor could be "crippled propped on blocks or not tied to its 

~ ~ DEHYRDRATED/ 

FREEZE DRIED FOODS 

HIGH CARBO/HIGH 

PROTEIN SNACK FOODS 

~ ~ PORTABLE WATER 

CONTAINERS 

WATER PURIFICATION TABLETS 

WATER PURIFICATION DEVICE 

!I TENTS 

~ ~ PORTABLE GAS/ 

PROPANE STOVE 

PORTABLE GAS/PROPANE 

LANTERN 

PORTABLE PROPANE HEATER 

PROPANE FUEL 

COLEMAN FUEL 

~PORTABLE ~TOILETS 

DISPOSABLE BAGS 

FOR ABOVE 

~ WATERPROOF ~MATCHES TARP/GROUND CLOTH I MATCH SAFE 

GART BROS. CASEY'S SPORTSCASTLE 

14101 Manchester Rd. 391-3331 KIRKWOOD 

821-3800 HAZELWOOD 

895-4444 BAL·LWIN' ; CLAYTON 

227-2011. 726-6733 Foundations: Check foundations ,stud walls" or short stud-framed walls foundation.is likely to fall off its supfor loose or cracked plaster. Wood- ·around the base of the house. These port., Diagonal bracing may be inframe houses sho,uld be bolted to the studs should be braced with plywood s(alled. A mobile home association orJl ST. CHARLES SOUTH COUNTY FENTON CHESTERFIELD 

foundatio,n, The lowest piec!! of '!\'OQd . sheathing. d!lBI!lr may havethe nl!ines and num- 946-1212 894-1140 . 343-3074 . . 32-7997 _ 

in i:ontact·'with the fo\mdatioh< is til~ .

1 ' ·Homes with masonn: found~2,Q;i,~- ... bers of en~ineers who no thi• tvn~ ni JAMES'I'OWN MALL·' '·'a!EST.WOOD PLAZA··· • "liKIHRIC!:K•P£4\ZA 

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6H ST. LOUIS POST·DISPATCH, OCTOBER 28, 1990 

EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS 

Family Drills: Everyone 

Should Practice What To Do 

3y Tom Uhlenbrock 

)f the Post-Dispatch Sta 

An earthquake is '.'ot like a tornado in which you have time to 

run to a safer room in the 

10me. A quake happens without warnng. The room you are in is where you 

vill ride out the shaking. 

But there are safety hints that make 

1 family drill invaluable. 

1. Pick out the safe spots in each 

oom and have each family member 

1et into that space. 

Practice taking cover by crouching 

n a safe spot, tucking your head under 

our arms and closing your eyes. This 

; especially important for children so 

lley will remember what to do if an 

dull is not present to tell them. 

What are the safe spots? Under a 

turdy table or desk, standing or 

rouching in a supported doorway or 

arch way or braced in an inside corner 

of a house. Avoid a doorway if it has a 

heavy door that might swing during a 

quake. 

2. Identify the danger zones in 

each room. · 

Places to avoid are windows, large 

mirrors and other glass that might 

shatter .. Stay clear of hanging objects 

and bookcases: cabinets and other furniture that might topple over. · 

Stay away from heating units, 

stoves, fireplaces and areas where 

chimney bricks might fall. 

3. Hold surprise safety drills. 

For children, this can be turned into 

a weekly or monthly game. Allow the 

child to shout "EARTHQUAKE!" and 

then check each family member's re· 

sponse. Did anyone seek shelter in a 

spot where heavy items could fall? 

Would the spot be sealed off by falling 

debris? Practice an emergency evac· 

uation and a safe place to meet outside 

after the quake is over~ 

4. As a final precaution, practice 

shutting off utilities. 

Everyone in the house should know 

where the water, gas and eiectric shutoffs are and bow to turn them off. 

(Caution: Do not actually turn the 

gas off during the drill because only 

the utility company can turn it back 

on.) 

Insurance:, Here Are Some Considerations 

ly William Flannery •f the Post-Dispatch Staff 

As experts warn that the area is 

at riSk for a damaging earth· 

quake, ··omeowners must con· 

ider whether 1at risk makes earthtuake insurant ~a good buy. 

The answer may depend on the type 

f home you in which you live, your 

inancial resources and your ability to 

:ve with risk. 

Earthquakes are not covered under 

1ost residential insurance policies. If 

ou need protection, you must get a 

ider. 

While most insurance companies 

harge similar rates, 'there are differ. 

nces in the deductibles and in the 

xtent otcoverage over contimts. The 

type of construction and the home's 

age are also factors in setting rates. So 

it pays to shop around. 

American Family Insurance and 

State Farm Insurance both charge 40 

cents for each $1,000 coverage on a 

wood frame house and 65 cents for 

each $1,000 on brick homes. 

In most cases, brick and unreinforced masonry buildings are more 

vulnerable to quakes. 

The deductible for both firms is 2 

percent, but they also offer a 5 percent 

deductible that gives a lower rate for 

each $1,000. For State Farm, a 5 percent deductible for a frame house is 30 

cents for each $1,000. 

Other companies, such as Fireman's 

Fund Insurance, start their deduct:,. 

ibles at 5 percent with an option for 10 

percent 

Fireman's also takes account of the 

age of the house. The company's rate 

for a brick home built before 1950 is 

$1.10 for each $1,000. 

The loss of content coverage will 

vary from company to company, with 

most offering 50 percent or 75 percent 

coverage based on the total policy 

amount. · 

Thus, a $100,000 policy would give 

$50,000 to $75,000 worth of protection 

for furniture, clothing and home 

valuables. 

But JoseP,h O'Shaughnessy, with 

American Family Insurance in Web· 

ster Groves; said some companies will 

Neighbors: Cooperation 

Should Begin With Planning 

By Tom Uhlenbrock 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

Neighbors usually band to· 

gether in the aftermath of a 

catastrophic event such as 

an earthquake. But forming a 

neighborhood emergency co-op 

now, rather than after the disaster, 

is a good idea. 

Planning ahead is 'even more 

important when both parents 

work, meaning children may be 

alone or with non· family members 

in a quake. 

Someone must take the initiative 

by sending notes to neighbors, ask· 

ing them to attend a meeting to 

discuss setting up a co-op. Emergency experts suggest I 0 families 

as an optimum size. 

At the first· meeting, select a coordinator and an assistant to guide 

the planning. Also determine 

whether any members have emergency medical skills, and assess 

who will require special help such 

as the elderly or disabled. 

Write down who has four-wheel 

drive vehicles, heavy-duty tools 

such as chain saws and a CB radio. 

Also pick a site - a neighbor's 

house or yard or a nearby park -

where members of the co-op will 

report after a quake. 

In the event of an earthquake, 

the coordinator should check off 

members as they arrive at the designated site. If someone doesn't report and can't be located after a 

reasonable time, a search team 

should be sent out. 

Remember to be on the lookout 

for potential hazards sue~ as 

downed power lines or broken gas 

mains. Do not enter structures that 

appear to be damaged. Aftershocks may occur. 

Some emergency planners sug· 

gest each homeowner in the co-op 

hang a white flag or sheet outside 

to signal everyone in their home is 

OK. 

Members of the co-op should fill 

out registration forms giving the 

following information: 

• Family name and address. 

• Number of family members, 

their names and ages. 

• Places of employment with 

telephone numbers. 

• Schools or day-care centers, 

including grades and teachers. 

• Special medical needs forcer· 

tain famiiy members. 

• Special skills, such as emergency medical training. 

• Next of kin outside the disaster area. 

The registration form also 

should include a release stating 

"In the event of a natural or man· 

made disaster, I hereby authorize 

my child to be released to . . . . " The 

release should be signed and dated 

by the parent or guardian. 

The emergency forms also could 

include a map of a homeowner's 

residence, indicating where the 

shutoffs for gas, electric and water 

are located. 

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Helping Hand: Elderly, 

Jisabled Need Special Plans 

;y Theresa Tighe 

f the Post-Dispatch Staff 

~ f the elderly and handicapped 

Jla.n ahead, they can improve 

heir odds of surviving a disaster 

out injury, experts say; 

hey should plan on being without 

services- including utilities or 

elp- for up to three days. People on 

!S irators are advised to buy a back· 

o enerator. Deaf people may want 

: g t a visual fire-alarm system. 

o es that sell these items are listed 

t .e telephone book. · 

P •ople with medical problems 

to ld stockpile three days of medical in a safe place, perhaps the refrig· 

·a or. They should carry medical in-

·r ation in their wallets or purses. 

1ough they sometimes find it diffi· 

tit to ask for help, the elderly and the 

bled should recruit people -at 

o < and at home - to help them. 

1 f and their helpers should plan 

1 .'practice emergency procedures, 

eluding several evacuation routes. 

Those who live alone should make 

!rlain that someone will check on 

tern after the quake. 

During the quake, take cover in a 

doorway, under a bed, desk or table, 

away from outside walls, if possible. 

When outdoors, move to a clear area, 

away from trees, signs or b4lldlngs. 

It-trapped, do anything p()ssiblekick walls, scream - to attract 

attention. 

The Bedfast 

• Before a quake, make the area 

around the bed as safe as possible. 

Earthquakes happen so quickly that it 

will be impossible to move the person. 

The bed should not be placed under a 

window, pictures; mirrors or shelves. 

• During an earthquake, those who 

are bedfast should pull the covers 

over their heads to protect themselves 

from debris. 

• After the quake, unless there is 

immediate danger, the person should 

not be moved. 

People In Wheelchairs 

• Before the quake, get an extra 

See OLD, Page 7 

set limits on coverage of special items 

such as jewl!lry, firearms and comput- . 

er systems. 

"We have a $5,000 limit on computers," O'Shaughnessy said. "So anything over that will require additional 

coverage." 

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Work 

Frbm page Three 

materials. 

The earthquake also has its own 

peculiar vibrational pattern. 

If the quake's vibrational frequency 

matches that of a particular building, 

the two can in effect lock hands in 

what scientists call "resonance." This, 

in turn, can increase the amount of the 

building's vibration and its subsequent 

shaking arid damage. 

Home 

From page Three 

Then, as suddenly as the noise and 

shaking began, there's silence. 

Aftermath In The Home 

The dust settles. Of course, you 

won't see it if it's nighttime and Ute 

power is out. 

If there is light, you may see dishes, 

bottles, books, lamps, plants and other 

items scattered across the floor and 

elsewhere. Furniture is toppled, curtain rods hang askew, windows are 

cracked or broken and walls and ceilings are cracked. 

Plaster and ceiling tiles have fallen. 

Bricks from the chimney have come 

loose and fallen through the roof and 

ceiling. 

Cleaning solutions from shattered 

bottles spread across the floor. Broken 

pipes spill water and the odor of natural gas fills the air. 

Down the street, smoke pours from 

a house or apartment building that has 

caught fire. 

Someone - perhaps another family 

member- has been hit in the head 

with a falling object or cut on the arm 

The impact of an earthquake at a 

particular location also depends on 

how far its vibrations travel before 

reaching a structure. The soils they 

travel through can dampen them. 

Earthquake forces travel many 

times farther in Missouri, Illinois and 

other central states than they do in 

california. 

And that's why people in the St. 

Louis region - more than I 00 miles 

ftom the northern end of the New 

Madrid Fault - need to prepare for a 

major quake. 

• Overturned bookcases and other 

furniture. 

• Fires because of broken gas lines 

and chimneys. 

• Downed power lines . . 

• Human actions resulting from 

panic. 

Emergency Response 

Several large fires break out in the 

municipality as time progresses. Broken segments of underground natural 

gas lines add to the problem. Broken 

water pipes prevent some firefighting. 

Disruption of electrical service and 

collapse of some radio towers hamper 

communications. Telephone service is 

lost temporarily. It is partly restored, 

but telephone communications are 

limited because of an overload of 

calls. 

Injuries and deaths mount. Damaged bridges and overpasses cut off 

ground transportation. Strong aftershocks hamper search-and-rescue 

operations. 

Mass shelters are needed to house a 

large number of people displaced 

from their damaged homes or afraid 

to re-enter them for fear of 

aftershocks. 

utility workers struggle for days to 

Everyone Is Wondering: What Will Happen To The Arch? 

"What will happen to the Gateway Arch in an 

earthquake?" 

That's a commonly asked question in St. Louis when 

· quakes are discussed. 

No one knows whether the Arch will withstand the 

force of a major New Madrid quake, says Kenneth Brill, 

professor emeritus of geology at St. Louis University. 

The Arch's north-south orientation is more favorable 

than an east-west one because northbound New Madrid 

seismic waves are less likely to make the structure 

wobble. 

The northern leg of the Arch was set firmly in bedrock, Brill said. But when drilling to set the southern leg, 

workers struck the first of many water-filled cavities lri 

the rock. · 

They removed " huge areas of rotten limestone" and 

filled the cavities with concrete for support, he said. 

'- William Allen 

THIS HAPPENED IN 

SAN FRANCISCO'S 

EARTHQUAKE!! 

DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN 

TO YOUR HOME!!! 

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by glass. According to the U.S. Geological 

Survey, injuries in a quake are most 

commonly caused by: 

•Partial building collapse, including falling chimney bricks, interior 

and exterior walls, parapets, ceilings, 

light fixtures and pictures. 

• Flying glass from shattered windows, especially in high-rise buildings. 

Old 

From page Six 

supply of charged batteries, battery 

rechargers, catheters and bladder 

pads. If toilets are out of order, catheters and bladder pads may be needed 

by those who don't normally use them. 

• During the quake, if you are in 

your chair, roll into a doorway away 

from outside walls, lock the wheels 

and cover your head. If you are out of 

the chair, seek cover under a bed, 

desk or table. 

The Hearing-Impaired 

• Before the quake, get extra flashlights, extra batteries for hearing aids, 

and pencils and paper. Store hearingaid batteries at home and work. Put a 

pencil and paper at your bedside. 

Learn some basic hand signals for 

emergency communication. 

• It is particularly important that 

you make arrangements before a disaster for neighbors and co-workers to 

restore electrical, telephone, gas, water and sewer systems. Gas-company 

workers work for weeks going house 

to house to turn on thousands of gas 

lines turned off needlessly by 

homeowners. 

State and federal emergency-response teams arrive in the area with 

food, water, medical assistance and 

search-and-rescue aid. 

help you afterwards. Most people will 

rely on the radio for their emergency 

information. Someone will have to re- lay that information to you. Let emergency workers know you are unable to hear their instructions. They may not realize your plight and leave you 

behind. 

The Blind 

• Before the quake, store extra canes at honie and at work, even if you 

use a guide dog. Your dog may be 

injured or too frightened to respond. II 

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• Windo'w film is practically invisible so it 

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may , several be blocked escape . routes, as some } ~~ 'i' J ' .... 1 ill I CENTER ~ ~ 

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if you heard 

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. j ~~· . 11660 MON.-FRI. 

PAGE 

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Shocks: Children Have Trouble Handling Emotions 

By William Allen Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

Many children ... were awakened at 5:59 

a.in. by a frightening shaking of the Earth, 

their beds rocking~ sometimes moving 

across the room, furniture tumbling over, 

walls rattling, toys falling off the shelves. In 

many instances tliey saw their parents Ull$ef 

and frightened and perhaps clutching them. 

-Report on a 1971 earthquake 

in Los Angeles 

Attention to a child's emotional needs is 

· more important after an earthquake 

than after any other natural disaster, 

experts say. · 

A child's confusion, ijnxiety and other emotional reactions to an earthquake are often 

overlooked after a quake. 

"There's no doubt that you have to deal with 

the physical $8fety of the child first," said 

_$tepMn Howard, a psychologist with the San 

· Femando (Calif.) Valley Child Guidance Clinic. "Biltattw. the safety has been established, 

somethinfmust>be.-tlone about the emotional 

after-effects. · , •.• ' · h • . . _ . _ . 

!'The old feeling was that these fears were'· 

temporary, but we're now finding out that this 

is not so. Children may suffer emotional aftereffects for some years to come." 

Howard, a consultant to Los Angeles schools, 

cited a survey of children who went through a 

major quake in 1987 in Whittier, Calif. It 

showed that at least two years later many 

childreh still suffered anxiety generated I>Y the 

UT · lhe old feeling was that these fears were temporary, but 

we're now finding out tha,t this is not so. Children may suffer 

emotional after-effects for some years .tq come. JJ 

STEPHEN 'tOWARD, psychologist, San Fernando (Calif.) Valley Child Guidance Clinic 

quake. 

The 1983 quake In Coalinga, CBlif., left students with "fear of separation from their parents, fear of future disasters, apathy, regressive behavior, sleep disturbances and fear of 

natural events," according to a consultant's 

report. After the quake, students became 

afraid when big trucks rumbled past the 

schooL 

After the Oct. 17, 1989, Lorna Prieta quake 

near San Francisco, mental health officials 

reported tliat some children became more aggressive, others more withdrawn. · · 

expert on ear.hquake-related mental health 

problems. · 

It also may lead to stomachaches and refusal 

to eat, go to the bathroom, bathe or go to schooL 

Experts with the American Red Cross and 

elsewhere recommend the following for parents and other adults concerned about children's reactions to an earthquake: 

• Prepare the child in advance by holding 

earthquake drills, like the fire drills regularly 

practiced in schools. Such drills may create 

temporary anxiety but will lessen the longMany were frightened 

by _loud noises an(! .. quick 

movements- everi curtains blowing in the · 

breeze. This "hypervigilance" leads children to 

expect bad things to happen, said Robert Butterworth, a Los Angelesbased psyct10Iogist and 

Atter the quake 

(1983, Coalinga, 

Calif.), students 

became afraid when big 

trucks rumbled past the 

sch.ool. 

term effects of a quake. 

• Have family discussions about what to do in 

the home, school or anywhere else the child may 

be when an earthquake 

strikes. 

• After a quake, reassure the child, but don't 

hide the fact that there 

may be aftershocks. Parents should go to their 

children as soon as possible. Separation from 

parents is a much greater fear for children 

than physical harm. 

• For a long time after the event, "There 

should be talk and talk and talk about what 

happened and how everyone feels," at home 

and in the school, Howard said. "We have made 

big mistakes in the past in not talking about it." 

• If children are unable to discuss their 

earthquake fears, parents should encourage 

them to draw what they are feeling, "since 

young children have an easier time expressing 

feelings through drawing than through talking," Butterworth said. 

• Parents should be aware of their own fears 

and uncertainty and of the effect these may 

have upon the child. 

• Children who are more anxious than others can be allowed to sleep in the same room as 

another child or on a mattress in the parents' 

bedroom, but these arrangtoments should return to normal after a few days. 

• Children should be included in post-earthquake inspection and clean-up activities. It is 

reassuring for the chi ld to be involved with the 

parent in these tasks and to see that progress is 

being made in bringing the home back to 

order. 

• If a child's sleeping difficulties, clinging 

behavior and other emotional problems continue, seek professional counseling. 

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Before: Preparation 

Called Key To Prevention 

Of Psychological Problems 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

Psychological problems will 

be widespread and lasting if 

a major earthquake strikes 

the St. Louis regi9n. psychologists 

say. 

The best way to beat these problems of the mind is to do wh.at 

experts say should be done in the 

home. school and office before a 

quake: Prepare. 

People often get warnings of tor-

. nadoes. floods, fires and other disasters, said Stephen Howard, a 

- psychologist with the San Fernando (Calif.) Valley Child Guidance 

· Clinic. That makes it possible to 

escape or hide, which alleviates 

fear th.at may linger after the 

disaster. 

"But earthquakes come suddenly and unexpectedly,'"said Howard, who counsels quake victims. 

"There is no way to hide, no way to 

escape, no way to do anything. So 

the fear is much greater." 

Those who will be in the most 

vulnerable mental state after a rna-

. jor quake are those wllo saw the 

death and destruction it caused, 

psychologists say. Also likely to experience difficulties are those who 

are normally anxious and those 

who are most dependent on others 

- the very old and very· young. 

Adults may be depressed and 

preoccuppied with earthquakes. 

Many phobias cari surface. People 

become afraid to drive on expressways and bridges, ride on elevators 

or walk near tall buildings .. 

Survivors overcome with grief or 

hysterical with fear will swamp 

emergency hotlines with calls or 

will report to hospitals. 

"If someone in the family has 

been hurt, that just complicates 

things," said Robert Butterworth, a 

Los Angeles psychologist who has 

treated people who suffered emotional problems after earthquakes. 

A wide range of quake·r~Iated 

psychological problems has been 

reported to mental-health agencies 

since the earthquake in the San 

Francisco area on Oct. 17, 1989. 

"Adults have beenspending 

sleepless nights, feeling jumpy and 

numb, finding themselves unable 

to concentrate, and some are feeling so hopeless that they are immobilized," reported Linda Fain and 

Diane Myers of the California DeSee PSYCH, Page 9 

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· fARTHQUAt(E ~ i'RiiP.mt£DNES5- ---------- ---------- ------ .. -... 

Psych 

From page Eight 

partment of Mental Health. 

Some people are angry and anxious, because personal activities and 

relationships were disrupted by the 

quake. Many are grieving over the 

loss or loved ones. friends and prized 

possessions. 

Within two months of the quake, 

department psychologists had seen 

more than 35,000 people with psychological problems in the seven 

counties hit by it. State mental health 

officials had held about 1,700 group 

counseling sessions. 

Many rescue workers also had succumbed to the stress of toiling for 

long hours in traumatic 

Quake Quotes ... 

circumstances. 

At government centers where people applied for financial assistance, 

some quake victims displayed "unusually intense" emotions, Fain and 

Myers wrote in a recent issue or a 

San Francisco area earthquake-preparedness newsletter. 

As people made a complete list or 

their losses for the first time, "many 

began finally to express their grief 

and anger," they wrote. Also, "as 

people realized that there were limitations on the amounts and kinds or 

losses covered -as well as on their 

own eligibility- they started to 

manifest anxiety and fear over finances and general frustration about 

nearly everything." 

That is a typical reaction, Butterworth said. After a quake, most peoHere are comments from people who experienced the Oct. 17, 1989, 

earthquake in-the San Francisco area. 

• "People ran. It reminded me of those old Western movies where 

someone fires a gun at a herd of cattle and they stampede." 

• "I feel like I've been run over, like I've been flattened." 

• "You couldn't get your balance." 

"n reople often get warnings of tornadoes, 

thinking ahead of time what they'll 

do in a quake -wherever they may 

be. 

"The biggest problem that people 

have in Los Angeles during an earthquake is that they freeze or panic," 

Butterworth said. They either don't 

know or don't remember what 

they're supposed to do. 

floods, fires and other disasters. But earthquakes 

come suddenly and unexpectedly. There is no way 

to hide, no way to escape, no way to do anything. 

So the fear is much greater'' 

STEPHEN HOWARD, psychologist with the San Fernando (Calif.) Valley 

Child Guidance Clinic. 

To avoid this situation. earthquake 

experts suggest regular practice or 

what you and your family will do in a 

quake- whetl\er it strikes in tllP 

pie feel relief at coming through 

without personal injury, "but then 

the reality sinks in that it does matter 

that your home and possessions are 

damaged," he said. 

What can be done to heal the psychic wounds caused by a quake? 

"The main thing is to talk a,bout it 

afterwards," Bnlt!!rworth •llh.l. "Peo= • 'middle of the night or dilriilg the day, 

pte sometimes feel after it happens when parents and children are 

that they're the only ones to feel this separated. 

way, and they're afraid to talk about "It's basically the same principle 

it." as teaching fire drills in school," ButPeople who live in earthquake- terworth said. "We hope that when a 

prone areas can go a long way quake strikes, you will go on auto' 

toward preventing such problems by pilot and do the right thing." 

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10H ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH, OCTOBER 28, 1990 EARTHQUAKE 

Built On Sand: S·oil Type One Of 3 Major Factors 

In Amount Of Damage Done To Buildings In Earthquake 

Among the areas 

in the St. Louis 

region most 

threatened by 

liquefaction are 

those in the 

floodplains of the 

Mississippi, 

Missouri and 

Meramec rivers, 

experts say. 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

WHETHER YOUR borne is 

damaged by an earthquake 

depends on three main rae· 

tors: the intensity or tbe ground mo· 

lion that strikes the bujlding, the struc· 

ture or tbe building and the kind or 

ground on which it stands. 

Earthquake risk is also high in ar· 

eas with steep slopes prone to land· 

sliding and scattered areas with loose 

soils. 

Houses and otber buildings may be 

threatened by other underground dan· 

gers as well. They include natural clay 

deposits, abandoned mines, landfills 

and sinkholes. 

Since soils vary greatly by location Few or these bidden threats are re· 

-even within the St. Louis metropoli· corded on existing maps in St. Louis, 

tan area - the earthquake risk also officials say. 

varies greatly. Tbe maps tbat exist for the bistate 

"It's like the old Biblical saying region are fairly rough, especially 

where the building built on sand col· wben compared with detailed soil haz· lapses before tbe one ard maps prepared 

built on rock," says for much or tbe San 

Kenneth Brili, profes· '' I · Francisco Bay area. 

soremeritusofgeolo- t's like the Themapsforthebi· 

gy at St. Louis old Biblical state region match 

Umverstty. • r saymg where the broad areas or dl rer· Structures built on 

rock can still be sus· 

ceptible to collapse. 

Tbose built on bedrock 

"tend to sway with tbe 

bedrock," but tbe ones 

on loose soils "are going to bave more trouble," Brill said. 

Loose soils ·cause 

trouble for two main 

• • • ent soli types wtth the 

bulldmg bu1lt on expected Intensity or 

sand collapses a quake. They are 

before the one called Mercalli inten· 

b .1 '' stty maps. Ul t on rock. Tbe Mercalli maps 

KENNETH BRILL, 

professor emeritus of 

geology, St. Louis U. 

show what people in 

different areas are 

likely to feel in earth· 

quakes or various 

magnitudes, as well as 

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reasons: liquefaction and settling. 

Liquefaction is the term commonly 

used to describe how water-soaked 

soils become liquid-like in a quake. 

And, like instant quicksand, they no 

longer support the structures built on 

them. 

Most liquefaction in a quake occurs 

on river flats and along shores, where 

water is just beneath the soil surface. 

"If the soil is dry and the water table 

considerably deeper, the liquefaction 

factor Is not so important," Brill said. 

In that case, a quake shakes the soil 

down as air pockets between soil particles are moved around. 

Among the worst scenes of destruction in the Oct. 17, 1989, quake in 

northern California were in San Francisco's affluent Marina district. Tbere, 

soft soils and filled land near the edge 

· of San Francisco Bay liquefied, leading to the destruction of many 

buildings. 

That destruction occurred even 

though the Marina District was more 

than 50 miles north of the quake's 

center. And in California, earthquake 

forces travel far shorter distances 

than in the central states. Soils in California tend to dissipate those forces 

faster than in the Midwest. 

Among the areas in the St. Louis 

region most threatened by liquefaction are those in the floodplains of the 

' Mississippi, Missouri and Meramec 

rivers, experts say. 

what kinds of damage may occur. For 

example, the map of the St. Louis region shows that on the river floodplains, some buildings will partially 

collapse, tree branches will break and towers and chimneys will fall during a 

quake of 7.6 on the Richter scale. 

The best available Mercalli intensity maps of the bistate region accompa· 

ny this story. No close-up map of other 

counties in the metropolitan area exists, experts said. 

But the maps are too general in 

many cases to tell just where a vulner· 

able area begins and a less dangerous 

area ends. 

More detailed information may be 

available from some local govern· 

ment planning offices or building 

departments. 

But, according to the U.S. Geological Survey: "Even reasonably detailed 

maps give only an overview of potential for shaking, liquefaction, landslid· 

ing, faulting and damage. To be sure 

about a particular building site, you 

should consult an engineering geologist, geotechnical engineer or foundation engineer." 

Detailed maps like those for Cal· 

ifornia don't exist in Missouri and llli· 

nois mostly because earthquake haz· 

ards have been ignored by the general 

public and most officials until recent· 

ly. While California has been preparing for quakes at least since the great 

San Francisco quake of 1906. 

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212 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

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Source: U.S. Geological Survey Post-Dispatch Map by Tom Borgman 

J.B. Forbes/Post-Dispatch 

A home in the Marina district 

of San Francisco toppled 

sideways after being 

knocked off its foundation. 

Years ago the district was a 

swampy area that was filled 

in with landfill and was developed with no solid 

foundation 

The quake rocked the area 

with actual.waves a~ if it were a lake. 

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1211 

·•mRTRQUAKE:' 

3 Lifesaving Words: 

When An Earthquake Strikes, 

Experts Say, A Safety Guideline 

Is To 'Drop, Cover And Hold' 

By Tom Uhlenbrock Of the Post-Dispatch Stall 

The best method to prepare for a quake is to 

<:Onduct drills in each room of your home, 

What 

c_an you do during an earthquake lden~~~lng the saf~~~~ots and the hazards. 

to help improve your chances of rid- Yell RTHQUA · dunng m~~thly dnlls, 

lng it out unharmed? and actually move to the safe pos1!Jon. 

Scenes captured on security video cameras Outside: Move away from chimneys, walls, 

during the 1989 quake in the San Francisco tall buildin\lS, tre_es and_ power lines. l'~e great

-

area show the frightening quickness with est d~nger IS falling Objects such as 

b.ncks o~ 

which a quake strikes. .· . .. cormces. Stay m an open area until the shakmg 

Peol)le are rolling ~hopping caf!l; down su• stops. 

permarket aisles or sipping dii!)ksln ii~rs. 

.. • . .. In a moving car: Steer to the st10ulder of 

when, suddenly,:the earth is shaking and. it!!nis . the roadway and away from underpasses, over- are falling off shelves. · · passes and bridges. Stop in 

Public safety experts re- a safe.place as quickly as 

cently cntlcized one publica- M . . possible - a~ay 'from tall 

tion that advised people to oving from on~ buildings an

·d !Other struc-

"get outside:: at the fi~t sign room to another may tures- and star !lithe car. of an earthqual,{e;Movmg • • .· • · . . The car may shake-violentfromone room to another be dtff~c~ltylf not lyon its springs, but it oftJ:iaY !)edi_fflcult.lf notlmpps• . impossible, during a fers protectioii.•If you must 

s1ble, dunng a quake. · quake; A mad dash resume driving, ..yatch for 

A mad dash outside makes 

·• · fallen objects, downed 

you all the more vulnerable outstde mak~s you all power lines and broken or 

to falling objects- the main the more vulnerable undermined roadways. 

sou:ce of death and injury to falling obJ' ects _ 1 ff' • 0 k dunng a quake n your o ICe. uc 

Having some. idea of how the main source of under a sturdy ilesk or tato seek prqtection where you death and injury b_le. AvOid overhead light are will help avoid panic Re d . k fixtures that might fall. . · · urmg a qua e. member the f1rst rule of safe· In school: Ta~e cover 

ty -stay calm. under a desk, counter or 

D 

Here is what experts advise if you are: 

In your home: Drop down under a sturdy 

table or desk or bed and stay put until the 

table and remain there silently until told to 

evacuate. Move away from windows, aquariums, light fixtures, trophy cases and other 

hazards. 

_ ~PREPAREDNESS 

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ST. LOUIS POST•DISPATCH, oeTOBE~ 2~ . 1990 

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shaking is over. If the desk or table moves, hold 

onto it. The key words are drop, cover and 

hold. · If no protection is available, move to a supported doorway or archway. Beware of heavy doors that might swing during a quake. Another 

alternative is to brace yourself against an in· side corner. Stay clear of windows or mirrors that might 

shatter, and avoid tall bookcases and other 

furniture that might topple. Avoid heavy bang· 

ing objects such as light fixtures or plants, and move away from fireplaces. A hallway often is a safe spot because it is 

free of furniture and hanging objects. Kitchens and garages may be dangerous be· cause they often are tilled with objects on shelves or heavy appliances. If in the kitchen, turn off the stove, if possi· 

ble, before seeking cover. 

In a supermarket or other commer· 

cia I building: Seek protection under a table or counter or against an inside wall, if possible. If not, drop, tuck and protect your Head. Move 

away from windows and display shelves. Do 

not rush for exits or doors. Many injui"les occur when people panic and try to leave at the same time. Do not use elevators or stairways. 

In a high-rise building: Stay in the build· 

ing, on the same floor. Get under a desk and 

stay away from outside walls and windows. Do 

not use the elevator. ' 

0 

After the initial quake is over, be prepared 

for aftershocks. These may be strong. Seek cover again if necessary. Do not use matches, candles or open flames 

until you have determined there are no gas 

leaks. 

Stay clear of windows or mirrors that 

might shatter, and avoid tall bookcases 

and other furniture that might topple. 

Avoid heavy hanging objects such as light 

fixtures or plants, and move away from 

fireplaces. 

Source: U.S. Geological Survey 

What To Do In A Quake 

; 

L 

b: 

Post-Dispatch Illustration b;· Chuck Groth 

Experts r!lcommend that you "drop, cover and hold" when a quake strikes. Duck under 

a strong table or desk. Hold onto It and be prepared to move with it. If no table or desk is 

available, one option is to cover your head and face tc; protect them from broken glass 

and falling objects. 

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VI 
ST. LDU,IS POSH>ISe.&,TCH, OCTOBER 28, 1990 

··EARTHQUAKE :PREPAREDNESS 

Forecasts: As A Science, Earthquake Prediction 

Is In Its Infancy; But We Have Been At It For Years 

By William Allen 

Of the Past-Dispatch Staff 

Thousands of panicky Los Angeles residents fled that city in 

May 1988 because of an earth· 

quake prediction, even though it was 

loosely based on a prophecy made 300 

years before by the French fortuneteller Nostradamus. 

The fleeing Angelenos wasted their 

time. The quake didn't happen. 

Nostradamus made no prophecy for 

the New Madrid fault. But Missouri 

and Illinois residents within reach of 

the fault's power should .know some- thing about earthquake predictions so they can be ready for such pronouncements - whether from quacks or sci· 

enlists, emergency-preparedness officials say. 

That knowledge would be useful in 

assessing predictions like the controversial one made by New Mexico climatologist !ben Browning. Browning 

has predicted a 50-50 chance of a damaging quake in the New Madrid 

fault around Dec. 3. 

Earthquake experts have attacked 

BrowniQg's prediction and his method 

for making it, calling them "scientifi· 

cally invalid." They also refuted his , claim of a record of successful quake 

predictions, saying no evidence existed that he had made them in advance. 

Earthquake prediction is still in its 

infancy. Scientists issue statements about the long-term probability of major earthquakes in specific fault zones, 

but short-term warnings are more of a 

goal than a reality. 

Even if short-term warnings were 

l';.e idea that animals may be able to sense an 

impending quake has been studied ... in China and 

Japan, but Western scientists are skeptical. 

perfected, they would warn only that 

the chance of a quake within a certain 

period il<:d increased - not that a 

quake was certain. Still, many researchers believe that short-term predictions will be useful one day in lessening the death and damage from 

major quakes. 

Scientists have predicted small 

quakes in California, New York and 

South Carolina with some degree of 

accuracy: Researchers in China and 

the Soviet Union also have claimed 

some success. But for each success, 

there are many failures. 

An aura of folklore and snake oil 

also surrounds earthquake prediction. 

Some people claim to predict quakes 

with psychiC ability; others use unproven or simply unreasonable 

methods. 

Scientists generally dismiss such 

claims. The U.S. Geological Survey 

recommends that people consider 

these points when assessing quake 

predictions: 

• Determine if the statement was made by a scientist from a reputable 

organization. 

• Ask if the statement has been reviewed and endorsed by the National 

Earthquake Prediction Evaluation 

Council, a panel of the nation's leading 

seismologists. 

• Evaluate bow much risk you and 

your family are likely to race during 

the anticipated quake. 

Looking For The Answers 

Scientists once believed they were 

close to unlocking the secrets of quake 

prediction. 

"But that optimism died out in the 

late '70s," said Brian Mitchell, chair- man of earth and atmospheric sCiences at St. Louis University. "It turns 

out to be a much more complicated 

problem.". 

. The idea that animals may be .able to sense an impending quake has been 

studied enthusiastically in China: and 

Japan, but Western scientists are skeptical. Animals may be sensitive to changing electrical and magnetic · 

fields, which may precede some. earthquakes. Some people also report 

ringing in their ears or a sense that a quake is about to happen. 

But many questions about these 

phenomena remain. Scientists generally agree that a sounder basis for 

prediction can be found by studying 

the physical changes that occur around faults before a quake. These 

include changes in the strain in the 

rock, water levels, water chemistry, 

heat flow, magnetism, electrical potential and seismic waves. 

Researchers have mounted an intensive experiment in Parkfield, 

Calif.,where they have set up a battery of sensitive instruments at the 

San Andreas Fault in an attempt to detect signs ~r a quake days in 

advance. 

If successful, the Parkfield Prediction Experiment could open the way 

to predicting quakes in any major 

fault where earthquakes are expected, including the New Madrid Fault. 

Even so, more study of New Madrid is 

needed, because it has many unusual 

characteristics. 

To understand the fault better, St. 

Louis University scientists monitor a 

network of more than 40 seismic sta- tions in tl).e central United States. 

They also study water well levels in 

the New Madrid region, attempting to 

discern a relationship between them 

and earthquakes. To date, no link has 

been discovered. 

Even if scientists learn to detect 

signs of impending quakes, prediction 

still will be a thorny iss'ue. That is 

because it still would involve the same levels of uncertainty, risk and potential costs and benefits as hurricane 

and tornado warnings, social scientists 

say. 

lben Browning 

Attacked by the experts 

13H 

In all such decisions, officials must 

consider the consequences of causing 

needless panic and economic and personal disruptions if the prediction 

proves unfounded. 

"But scientists and officials agree 

that any reliable information about an 

impending earthquake heeds to be released rapidly, with an evaluation of 

how much is and Isn't known," said 

Peter Ward, a seismologist with the 

U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park,. 

Calif. 

.. Ultimately, it's up to the citizenry 

to decide," Ward said: 

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"" £AR111QU.iiKE '®. PREPAREDNESS "· "'"" """·"'"""' """'"' "· ""' 

After The Quake: What To Do In Your House, On Your Block 

By Tom Uhlenbrock Of the Post-Dispatch Stall 

The quake is over. You've survived, but your house and 

neighborhood are in shambles. 

What's next? 

The first thing to remember is that 

the episode may not actually be over. Be prepared tor aftershocks that may 

be strong. Take cover if the shaking 

begins again. 

If you have -sturdy shoes available, 

p'ut them on and calmly move out of 

the house.You shouldalready have an 

evacuation plan and a pre-arranged 

meeting place tor family members 

outside. 

If you are trapped inside, be ready 

to make as much noise as possible to 

attract rescuers. 

Inside or out, check tor injuries and 

apply emergency first aid. Do not at- tempt to move seriously injured people unless they are in immediate danger of further injury. 

If there are no serious injuries, 

place a sign outside the house saying 

"All OK," so emergency crews can concentrate on other houses. 

Assuming you are free to move 

about, disaster planners suggest these 

steps after an earthquake: 

Examine the exterior of the 

house: Do not re-enter a dwelling 

that has been severely damaged. If 

you must evacuate, leave pets in a secure place. They will not be allowed 

In emergency shelters. Leave a note on the house saying where you are 

going. 

Put out fires: Small fires should 

be extinguished quickly if this can be 

done without risking personal safety. 

Check for gas leaks: Do not use 

a match, candle, cigarette lighter, 

open flame, electrical appliance or 

You should already 

have an evacuation plan 

and a pre-arranged 

meeting place for family 

members outside. 

light switch until you are sure that no gas is leaking. A light switch can trigger an explosion. 

It the odor of natural gas is detected, if there is a sound of escaping gas or if the meter is registering a high 

discharge, turn ott the gas at the 

meter. 

Caution: Do not turn ott the gas 

supply unless you believe there is a 

leak. Once turned ott, gas service 

must be restored by the gas company 

-and that could take days, or even 

weeks, in a disaster situation. 

Check your furnace, water heater 

and other gas appliances to mak'e certain they have not been damaged. 

Before using the furnace or water heater, check chimneys and flues for 

cracks, and clear them of any fallen 

bricks, mortar or other obstructions. 

Use caution in approaching a chimney 

that may be weakened. 

Check wiring: Shut ott electrical 

power if the wiring is damaged. Check 

for downed power lines, and report 

them to the utility company. 

Clean up spills: Medicines, 

drugs, cleaners, insecticides and other 

potentially harmful materials should 

be cleaned up and properly disposed 

of, If spilled or in damaged containers. 

Check water lines: If leaks are found, turn ott the water where it 

enters the building. 

Check closets and cabinets: 

Open closet and cupboard doors care- tully; watch for leaning objects that 

could fall. 

Obtain drinking water: H no bottled water has been stored, get 

emergency water supply from water 

healers, the holding tank in toilets (but not in the bowl itself), melted ice 

cubes or canned roods packed in 

water. 

A building's plumbing system will 

hold water after the lirie is shut off. 

Close all faucets in the building, except the highest and lowest ones, to set 

up a gravity flow out the lowest faucet. 

If the water heater is damaged, do not use the water; it may contain glass 

fragments. 

If undamaged, a water heater may 

hold 30 to 50 gallons or usable water. 

Turn ottthe heater, and drain the 

water through the spigot at the bottom 

of the tank. To obtain a freer flow of 

water, it may be necessary to open a 

valve near the top of the unit. 

Evlm if your water service does not 

appear to have been disrupted after an emergency, the tap water may not 

be sate tor drinking. Do not assume 

water. is sate, even if it is clear and 

odorless. 

To purity questionable water, pour 

it through cheese cloth or several layers of clean cloth to reinove sediment. 

Boil water vigorously tor three to five ,minutes. Aerate it to improve taste by pouring the boiled water from 

one container to another several 

times. 

If boiling is not possible, use iodine 

or halazone purification tablets if 

available, following the directions on the package. 

Household liquid chlorine bleach 

may be used to purify water. Add two 

drops of bleach per one quart of water 

See STOP, Page 15 

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Aftershocks May Occur 

For Weeks And Months 

I

n the weeks and months after a strong earthquake, many aftershocks can be expected. Some 

may be strong enough to damage structures already weakened in the main shock. 

Technically, an aftershock is any earthquake that 

follows on the heels of the first one. 

"Usually the aftershocks are smaller than the main 

event, and they decrease in number and magnitude as time goes on," said Brian Mitchell, a seismologist 

at St. Louis University. "The larger the earthquake, 

usually the larger the aftershocks and the larger the 

number of aftershocks." 

But no one can precisely say what to expect in the 

New Madrid Fault because the last major quake on the fault was in 1895, before any seismographs to measure earthquake patterns were in place. 

Because of the danger of large aftershocks, remov- al of belongings from damaged buildings may have to 

be delayed, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. 

The three great New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-

12 were followed by a total of at least five aftershocks 

of Richter magnitude 7.7 and at least 10 of magnitude . 6.7., scientists say. 

- William Allen 

Damaged Property: A Checklist Of Some Things 

To Remember Before The Insurance Adjuster Arrives 

By Jerri Stroud 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

Emergency and public safety officials 

say residents could be "on their own" 

for three days to a week if a major 

earthquake occurs in the St. Louis area. 

But as utility companies begin to restore 

power and public services begin to be available, it will only signal a start for residents 

who will need to begin putting their homes 

and lives back together. 

For many residents, their losses will be 

uninsured. Most homeowners' insurance policies don't include earthquake insurance, 

said David Chartrand, a spokesman for the 

Insurance Information Institute. 

Some earthquake insurance policies don't cover repairs to decorative treatments such as brick veneer on a frame house. Both 

earthquake insurance and insurance for 

items such as brick veneer are separate rid- ers that homeowners must request if they 

want them. 

For those who do have'insurance, a quick 

call to their insurance agent or adjuster is in 

order. If a resident's home is uninhabitable, 

Adjusters often go door to 

door to inspect damage. 

They may skip properties 

when they can't determine 

who owns them. 

residents should tell the agent where they can be reached. 

Here are some other tips on getting organized after a quake: 

• Report damage to insurers before mak-

-ing major repairs. 

• Minimize additional damage to the 

home. Some policies cover emergency re- pairs. But even if a policy doesn't cover such 

repairs, it usually requires homeowners to 

take steps to prevent more damage. 

If the initial shock or aftershocks shatter 

windows, collapse walls or cause. roof leaks, 

homeowners need to cover any gaping holes 

to prevent water damage and discourage 

looting. Chartrand said residents should keep 

receipts for the cost of emergency repairs, 

which often will be covered by insurance. 

• If your home is uninhabitable, post signs 

in windows, in yards or on the home. Signs 

should include name, insurance company 

and where the owner or occupant can be 

reached. 

After major disasters, adjusters often go 

door to door to inspect damage, Chartrand 

said. They may skip properties when they 

can't determine who owns them. Residents 

should ask for proper identification if an adjuster comes to their home. 

• Keep an inventory or a videotape of 

your home's contents. That will ease the 

process of collecting from insurance companies. Keep a duplicate inventory, videotape or pictures at work or in a safe deposit box. 

• Check with friends, the Better Business 

Bureau, bankers or insurance companies before hiring anyone to make repairs. People 

should be especially wary of contractors who 

want payment before they do any work. 

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ST. lDUIS POST-DISPATCH. OCTOBER 28, 1990 EARIHQUAKE ® PRE!JAREDNESS 15H 

.Lifeline: Even Moderate Quake Could Cut Off Homes' Utilities 

By William Allen 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

An earthquake that would cause only moderate damage to 

buildings in the St. Louis region 

still co~ld have a devastating impact on water, electrical and telephone 

lines, scientists say. 

Such an event could leave thousands of people without water for days 

and firefighters unable to control 

blazes. People might be unable to 

communicate with loved ones about 

their conditions, and businesses would 

be closed for weeks. If the earthquake 

struck in winter, it could leave homes 

without heat. 

Stop 

From page Fourteen 

if the water is clear, four drops if the 

water is cloudy. 

One gallon gets eight drops of 

bleach if clear, 16 drops if cloudy. 

" Experts say a quake of magnitude 

6.3 on the Richter scale in the New 

Madrid fault zone could disrupt the so- called utility lifeline systems. 

In a major quake; many pipelines 

that carry water, sewage, natural gas 

and petroleum products would break; 

telephone lines and switching equipment would fail; and electric power 

would be disrupted when transmission 

lines and relay stations were destroyed. 

Especially hard hit would be old 

pipelines in the city of St. Louis. 

Utility lifelines are more vulnerable 

than buildings because they are so long and they go through risky areas, 

experts said. 

Experts said there are ways to "mitigate," or lessen, the potentially devastating effects. 

Examples include anchoring electrical transformers, joining pipes to 

storage tanks with flexible connec- tions and designing water systems so that water can get to any given point 

from several routes. 

John Masek, a consulting engineer 

Although phone 

service may be widely 

disrupted at first, 

restoration time could 

be significantly shorter 

than that required for 

other utility systems. 

with Dames & Moore in Santa Ana, . Calif., said government and industry 

leaders, with assistance from earthquake engineers and other experts, 

should approath earthquake mitigation and preparedness in a measured 

way. Adequate preparations, although 

potentially costly, are necessary, effective and good investments. ' 

"If this can be approached from a realistic standpoint, we can save a lot 

of lives," he said. 

A report issued this summer by the 

Federal Emergency Management 

Agency on the impact of a major 

quake in St. Louis city and counti 

noted: 

• The region's electrical system is 

most essential to recovery and most 

susceptible to earthquake damage. 

Switchyards and transformer stations are most vulnerable. Electric power 

loss will have a great negative impact on all other utility systems. 

• Although phone service may be 

widely disrupted at first, restoration 

time could be significantly shorter 

than that required for other utility 

systems. Emergency communications 

systems are expected to remain partially avail~ble even under worst-case 

conditions. 

• The natural gas system and the 

electric system represent significant 

hazards if damaged, especially during 

winter and when located near one another. 

• Failure of sections of the interstate-natural gas pipeline system is 

likely during a major quake, particularly at river crossings. These systems 

generally have parallel pipelines that can be isolated easily, so operators 

may be able to close certain valves 

and still maintain service. But the possibility exists that all large lines serv- ing a region may be broken. 

• Loss of the water system will se- · verely handicap post-earthquake firefighting efforts and cause personal 

hardship. 

• All of the wastewater treatment 

facilities in the St. Louis region are located along rivers where the soil 

types are the most susceptible to differential settlement during a quake. 

Damage to these facilities and their 

discharge piping could cause serious 

public health problems in the region 

and threaten the communities downriver that depend on the Mississippi 

River for water supply. 

• Buried pipelines are more vulnerable to such hazards as landslides 

and liquefaction than they are to 

ground shaking. Their vulnerability 

depends largely on the material, age, 

depth, thickness and diameter. 

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Five gallons takes a half-teaspoon if 

clear, one teaspoon if cloudy. 

Check food supply: If the electricity is off or has been off, use perishable foods and food from the refrigerator first Use foods in the freezer 

second; food in a well-insulated freezer will not spoil for several days. Open 

the freezer as seldom, and as quickly, 

as possible. 

With no electricity, charcoal or 

camp stoves may be used outside. 

Candle warmers, chafing dishes and 

fondue pots may be used for cooking. 

Canned foods may be heated in the 

cans, after removing the label and 

opening the can. 

Do not eat or drink anything from 

broken glass containers. Liquids may 

be strained through a clean cloth if 

there is a danger of glass fragments. 

Check sewage lines: Avoid 

flushing toilets if sewage lines appear 

to be damaged. 

If sewage lines are broken, set up a 

sanitary waste-disposal system. Plastic trash bags may be used to line a 

toilet bowl to collect waste. Following 

use, add a small amount of disinfectant and seal the bag. If water is available, a solution of one part liquid chiorine bleach to 10 parts water makes an 

effective disinfectant 

A plastic bag in a bucket may be 

substituted for the toilet bowl. 

Telephones: Put your phone back 

on the hook if the quake has shaken it 

off- unhooked phones can contribute to clogging the phone network. Do 

not use telephones - including cellular phones and CB equipment- unless there is a genuine emergency. 

They probably will be jammed and 

needed for true emergencies. Use a 

portable radio· for damage reports. 

Report downed power lines and gas 

leaks to utility companies when 

possible. 

Do not go sightseeing: Roadways will be busy with emergency 

vehicles. Stay away from damaged areas unless authorities request help. 

Don't spread rumors. 

Shaken: 7.6-Quake Would Kill270 Here, Report Estimates 

A daytime earthquake registering 7.6 on the Richter scale on 

the northern end of the New 

Madrid fault would kill 270 people in 

St. Louis city and county and seriously 

injure more than 1,000, a federal report estimates. 

The quake would leave 200,000 people homeless and cause more than $2 

billion in damage to buildings if it 

struck during the day, according to the 

report from the Federal Emergency 

Management Agency. The report was 

released last summer. 

A more powerful but less likely 

quake- 8.6 on the Richter scalewould kill 1,400 people and seriously 

injure more than 4,500 in the city and 

county if it hit in daytime, the FEMA 

report said. That quake, which would 

be a repeat of one of the great New 

Madrid earthquakes of 1811-12, would 

leave nearly a half-million people 

homeless and cause more than $5 billion in damag_e to buildings. 

Slightly fewer casualties CO\lld be 

expected if the temblor struck at 

night, when more people are generally in safer buildings. 

Regardless of the magnitude, about 

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one-fifth of the dead and injured 

would be school children if the quake 

stuck during school hours. 

The authors of the report recommended that government agencies 

identify the thousands of "high-risk 

buildings" where casualties are most 

likely to occur and evaluate the vulnerability of highways, bridges and 

rail lines. 

About 98 percent of the casualties 

would be In unrelnforced masonry 

buildings. Unreinforced masonry construction comprises 80 percent of the · 

buildings In the city and 30 percent of 

those In the county, the report said. - William Allen 

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16H ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH, OCTOBER 28, 1990 . . ~ 

-----------------------~-~ __ HQ_u_A_KE_~~-P_R_EP_A_R_ED_N_~----------------------

Source; St Louis University 

Since 1811, more than 20 earthquakes of Richter magnitude 

6.0 or greater have erupted In the New Madrid fault. Most 

of these occurred from December 1811 through February 1812. 

About 190 moderate quakes, in the 4.3 to 5.9 range, occurred In 

1811-1812. On average, 200 quakes a year are detected in the 

New Madrid Fault, but only about six of them are· big enough to be 

felt by people. 

Post-Dispatch Graphic by Tony Lazorko 

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Geology: New Madrid Fault Is Different From Those Of The West C;oast 

By William Allen Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

What is the New Madrid Fault 

and why is it threatening to 

do terrible things? 

., The fault is a series of cracks deep 

in the Earth's crust. Seismologists say 

the fault zig-zags for more than 100 

miles from northeastern Arkansas, 

through the Missouri Bootheel and 

into the southern tip of Illinois. 

Unlike the San Andreas and other 

famous faults in califault, scientists say. About 200 earthquakes a year measuring about 1.0 or 

greater on the Richter scale rumble 

out of the fault, although only a few 

are strong enough to be felt by people. 

The New Madrid Fault is best 

known for producing a series of major 

quakes in 1811-12, including at least 

three measuring above 8.0 on the 

Richter scale, scientists say. At the 

time, the region was sparsely populated, and few deaths were reported. 

But the power of 

fornia, the New Madrid Fault cannot be 

seen. It lies 10 to 12 

miles beneath the 

land surface under 

ancienf ocean and 

river sediment, bedrock and part of the 

Earth's upper crust. 

oft also works differWtnesses said 

the land rolled like 

the quakes was evident. Witnesses said 

the land rolled like 

ocean waves, huge 

crevices opened in 

the soil and new 

lakes, islands and 

streams were creatocean waves, huge 

crevices opened in 

the soil. ed. The quakes rang 

church bells on the 

ently than the San Andreas. The California quakes are caused when the 

edges of two plates of the Earth's crust 

crunch as they move past each other. 

The New Madrid Fault lies in the 

middle of one of those plates. The 

cracks are part of a rift in the crust 

that developed more than 500 million 

years ago when one of those plates, 

known as the North American plate, 

tried to pull apart. The rift is a weak 

spot in the crust. 

Today, the New Madrid Fault bears 

the brunt of geologic forces pushing 

from the east and west, said Brian 

Mitchell, chairman of earth and at-

'mospheric sciences at St. Louis University. The pushing increases stress 

on the fault. ' 

"These stresses build up over long 

periods of time and eventually earthquakes occur," Mitchell said. 

The immense natural power ola 

major earthquake could be unleashed 

. Jit Jll)Y. tim!!. and any place along the. 

East Coast. 

It split stone houses anci toppled 

chimneys in the frontier town of St. 

Louis. The chances of a quake measuring 8 on the Richter scale are slim 

any time in the near future. But experts say a quake measuring Richter 6 

today could also cause major damage. 

Quakes of that magnitude occurred in 

1813 and 1895. 

The most widely quoted scientific 

estimates give 50-50 odds for a Richter 

6 quake in any given 15-year period · 

and a 9-in-1 0 chance over 50 years. 

Even though major quakes in the 

New Madrid fault happen less often 

than in california, their destruction 

spreads across 20 times the area hit on 

the West Coast. 

Scientific understanding of the New 

Madrid Fault still has a long way to go. 

Little was known about it until a net' 

work of seismographs was installed in 

the fault zone in the mid-1970s by St. 

Louis University . 

Edge Of 

Ancient 

Bay 

Chance For Major Quakes 

In The New Madrid Fault •! '& 

Richter Over next Over Nex,t 

Magnitude 15 Years 50 Yea~ 

6.3 -50% 

7.6 18% 

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"· "'"" "'""""'"· ocro'" "· '"" EARTHQUAKE ® PREPAREDNESS "" 

Recovery Process: It May Last Years As New Damage Is Uncovered 

By Jerri Stroud 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

More than a year after a major 

earthquake struck northern 

California, the apartment 

building across from Marjorie 

Greene's office in downtown Oakland still has "Keep Out" signs posted 

outside. 

"One thing about recovering from 

a major earthquake is that it takes 

years and years," Said Greene, assistant director of the Bay Area Regional Earthquake Preparedness 

Project. 

Closed freeway viaducts, ramps 

and bridges are daily reminders of 

the tremor that shook a broad area of 

northern California for about 15 seconds at 5:04p.m. on Oct. 17, 1989. The 

Lorna Prieta quake, as it has been 

named, measured 7.1 on the openended Richter scale and caused 

damages estimated at ~7 billion. 

City officials in Whittier, calif., 

originally thought that it would take 

about two years to repair damage 

from a 5.9 magnitude quake that 

struck that Southern California city 

of 90,000 people more than three 

years ago, Greene said. 

But officials are still finding 

cracked sewer lines and other damage from the 1987 Whittier Narrows 

tremor. Officials say they expect a 

full decade may elapse before Whittier recovers fully. 

Most Officials in the St. Louis area 

agree that the damage from a major 

earthquake here could be much worse and take far longer to repair. 

Few area buildings or highways have 

been designed to withstand 

earthquakes. 

More than 180,000 homes and 

apartment buildings in the area are 

built of unreinforced masonry, said 

Fred Williams, the city's director of 

emergency management. Even 

frame houses often have brick 

chimneys. 

"If we have an earthquake of any 

Building damage may 

not be obvious ... after 

an earthquake. Some 

buildings may crack but 

not collapse until an 

aftershock hits. 

magnitude, there will be a .tot of collapsed buildings," Williams said. 

Sewers and highway overpasses also 

may collapse, adding to traflic and 

public safety problems. 

City and state officials are working 

on plans to bring in structural engineers from other areas to help assess 

damage and determine the safety of 

buildings after an earthquake, Williams said. More than 7,000 engineers 

came to northern California from 

other areas to inspect damage after 

last year's tremor. 

But the experts probably would inspect high priority sites such as hospitals, nursing homes, schools, fire 

stations and buildings that will serve as temporary shelters before they 

could begin looking at residential 

buildings. 

And if other areas suffer heavier 

damage than St. Louis, the city might 

have to wait its turn before the volunteer inspectors would come here, 

Williams said. 

Building damage may not be obvious immediately after an earthquake. Some buildings may crack 

but not collapse until an aftershock 

hits. In others, an expert's opinion 

may be needed to determine whether the damage is serious or cosmetic. 

Inspectors in California tried to 

sort buildings into one of three cate- gories, said Michael Smiley, plans 

and operations specialist with the St. 

Louis County Office of Emergency 

Preparedness. Buildings were either 

undamaged, in need of repair but 

habitable or unsuitable for 

occupancy. 

Smiley said building officials here 

expect to devise a similar system and 

a way of keeping track of the category assigned to each building. Once 

inspectors make initial inspections, a 

system of expediting permits for repairs may be needed. 

County highway inspectors have 

devised a system for rapidly inspecting road decks, bridges and overpasses after an earthquake, Smiley 

said. They would make more detailed inspections later. 

Federal money is available for 

some public repairs, but more money probably would be needed if a 

major earthquake strikes, Smiley 

said. After last year's California 

earthquake, the governor put in 

place a temporary sales tax to pay 

for repairs. 

"It's very possible that in addition 

to lost services," Smiley said, "we'll 

have to take some of the burden on 

ourselves to pay for the recovery." 

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Sham Artists: Disasters Draw 

Swindlers, So Beware On Contracts 

Tile panic an earthquake or 

other major disaster inspires often leads some people to take advantage of others. 

"After one of these disasters, you 

get a lot of sllam artists wllo come in," says Brentwood Police Chief 

William G. Karabas. "Tiley always 

ask for money up front." 

Residents should ask for credentials· from anyone wllo comes to 

tlleir door claiming to represent an 

insurance company or public agency, said James Schmitt, !lead of tile 

St. Louis Better Business Bureau. 

In widespread disasters, police or 

emergency officials usually issue 

special identification to legitimate 

insurance representatives or 

emergency personnel. 

People also should be wary of 

contractors wllo go door to door, 

Schmitt said. 

"In every disaster we've ever 

llad, good contractors are in sucll 

demand tllat til ere aren't enough of 

tllem to go around," lle said. 

People can call tile Better Business Burea u, local building officials, banks and friends to check a 

contractor's reputation. Building 

and contractor associations listed 

on a contractor's card may be suspect because some profiteers invent phony trade groups, Schmitt 

said. 

Publi.c adjusters also may go 

door to door, offering to represent 

people making insurance claims. 

Schmitt said. Some are legitimate, 

a nd some are not. In either case, 

tile adjuster usually takes a percentage of any claim. 

"Tile main tiling is, don't be in a 

tremendous hurry to sign a contract," Schmitt said. 

- Jerri Stroud 

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Help: State, Federal Sources Are Available 

By Jerri Stroud 

Of the Post-Dispatch Staff 

·Families and businesses. will be 

able to apply for llelp from sev- eral state and federai sources if 

an earthquake is severe enough for 

tile president to declare tile St. Louis 

region a disaster area. The Federal Emergency Management Agency acts as an umbrella organization for 25 government agencies tllat deal witll various aspects of 

disaster response and recovery, said 

John Coleman, FEMA's assistant director in tile Kansas City region. 

Tile federal government is tile main 

source of money for disaster loans and 

grants, said Coleman. But state and . 

local governments often run disaster 

field offices and administer certain 

gr_ants. 

After a disaster, individuals and 

families can apply for grants of up to 

$1!,000 tllrougll disaster field offices. 

Aner a disaster, 

individuals and families 

can apply for grants of 

up to $11,000 through 

disaster field offices 

The money can be used for expenses not covered by other programs or insurance, including essential furniture and appliances, said Paul Schleer. deputy director of tile State Emergency Management Agency in Jefferson Cit~ . 

In addition, federal unemployment assistance is available to workers who 

are out of work because of a disaster 

and wllo aren't eligible for regular 

unemployment payments. 

Tile Small Business Administration 

handles subsidized loans to repair or 

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settlements and adjustments to VAguaranteed home mortgages. 

The Social Security Administration 

can help Social Security recipients 

with address changes. The agency also 

can expedite checks after a disaster. 

Social Security offices also can help 

disaster victims apply for disability, 

death and survivor benefits. 

Farmers and ranchers can apply 

for disaster loans for up to 80 percent 

of their actual loss of production, up to 

$500,000. The Farmers Home Administration administers the disaster loan 

program for farmers. 

• Emerg. Food Pks. - 3.600 calories 

• 1 Survival Therm Blanket 56"x84" 

• 4 Water-Aqua Bloxs- 8.4 oz ea. (33.8 oi) 

• 3 Cyalume Chern. Light Sticks-1 2 hrs. ea. 

• Hygiene Pack 

• Whistle & First Aid Kit 

• Disaster Guide 

·Carrying case/High Impact with handle 

Please enter my or-de-r-as_l_o_llo_w_s_: (A_II_o_w 3-w-ee-ks-lor_d_e-live_r_y_) -- ------I 

Oty Item Unit Price Only Shipping TOTAL I 

We recommend a Family Kit for the 

Home and A Individual or student kit 

for every car. Businesses A Individual 

or student kit for each Employee Business Hrs. M:-F. 9-5 MO./I LL./ARK Schools. Groups or 

Business Call (314) 521-6444 

CALL-IN ORDERS ONLY 1-800--LIFE-KIT 

Student 48 HR. $24.95 (4.99 p/yr) 3.50 --- I Individual 72 HR. 34.95 (6.99 p/yr) 4.50 , .. 

Family ol4 72 HR. 110.00 (22.00 p/yr) 7.50 ---· I Trauma Kit (lor 35) · 199.00 10.00 ---- -- Trauma Kit (for 100) 299.00 20.00 ___ _ 

Total amount of check enclosed ___ or complete credit card information ___ I Name Address 

City State Zip Date ------

1 

Credit Card (MC Visa) Card # Exp. Date I 

Signature · 

LJ end to and make checks payable to LIFE KIT, 27132 B Paseo Espada, Bldg. __j 206, San Juan, Capistrano, CA 92675. Call in Orders Only 1-800-LtFE-KIT 

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"" EARTHQUAKE ®. PREPAREDNESS "· "'"" """·""'""· "'"'" "· '"" 

··Guidelines For Governments, Schools 

LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 

Here is what residents can ask their local 

governments to do to address the threat of an 

earthquake: 

Preparedness and Mitigation 

• Conduct a hazard-vulnerability analysis; 

finding the location of hazardous materials 

'and determining the potential threat to the 

area. 

• Develop a seismic-safety plan that addresses land-use and development decisions. 

• Develop a plan to reduce. the hazards 

posed by older and unreinforced masonry and 

concrete buildings. 

• Identify nonstructural hazards in government facilities. 

• Seek mutual-aid agreements between lo1cal andjor special purpose governments. 

· ,, • Develop a coordinated disaster-management plan that mcorporates all departments 

and managers. 

• Train enip.loyees to act as emergencyservices workers in the event of an 

earthquake. 

• Identify potential sites for use as masscare centers. Stockpile emergency supplies. 

• Start community programs that stress the 

importance of home and individual planning. 

• Distribute quake literature to private and 

public sector groups in the community. Develop special programs that deal with preparedness for the disabled, the non-English-speaksystems. 

• Equip shelters with enough health and 

sanitation supplies for large numbers of 

people. 

• Identify potential casualty-collection 

points for triage and transport of the injured. 

• Learn to use the news media to provide 

public information before, during and after the 

earthquake. 

• Provide city and county agencies with 

emergency supply kits in their buildings. 

• Identify potential sites for waste disposal. 

• Establish procedures for timely inspection and condemnation of damaged 

structures. 

Recovery 

• Develop a plan to organize the recovery 

- such as a suggested recovery authority 

with functions and potential assignments. 

• Researchwhether.special ordinances 

ana legislation will 5e required. 

• Establish plans for assuring the continuance of government and business functions. 

Such contingency plans should assume the 

loss of records, supplies and inventories as 

well as of building space. 

• Develop plans for providing immediate 

disaster assistance, such as temporary housing, mass feeding, financial assistance and 

psychological counseling to victims and families of victims. 

Karen ElshoutfPost-Dispatch 

Earthquake drills are only one of many steps schools can take to protect 

students and property. 

LOCAL SCHOOL DISTRICTS 

Here is what residents can ask their local 

school districts to do to address the threat of 

an earthquake: 

Preparedness and Mitigation 

• Prepare schools disaster plans and make 

staff members aware of their roles and responsibilities under the plan. Teachers and 

administrators may be responsible for the students for up to 72 hours after a disaster 

Emergency Response 

• Identify a central " command post" or other central planning area that contains maps of 

the campus, facilities and hazards in the area, 

an enrollment sheet for the current year, first 

aid materials, and other tools necessary to 

manage the emergency-response activities 

after a disaster. 

• Give teachers basic operating proceN 

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• Recruit business leaders to participate in 

.private/public preparedness programs. 

' • Establish procedures for using volunteers 

before, during and after the earthqu\'lke. 

Response 

• Assure that all agencies that could offer 

assistance at the time of an earthquake have 

been involved in pre-event planning. 

• Establish a coordinated command system 

to ensure effective response at multiple sites. 

• Set up procedures to quickly assess the 

need for outside resources. 

• Build redundancy into communication 

• Establish how public information needs 

will be handled. Develop procedures 'to help 

people find the missing and to notify employees whether and where to return to work. 

• Establish plans for hazard abatement, . 

such as inspecting, closing and demolishing 

hazards that are a threat to public safe)Y 

• Establish priorities for restoration of 

services. 

• Plan to document and tally costs associated with the earthquake. Such information 

will be needed to substantiate disaster-assistance requests and insurance claims and to . 

speed payment to vendors and mutual-aid 

partners. 

Source: Bay Area Regional Earthquake Preparedness Project. 

o( BOOKS & BOOKLETS 

"Earthquakes in Missouri" 

Department of Natural Resources 

Public Information Office 

P.O. Box 176, Jefferson City, MO 65102 

1-800-334-6946 

50 cents plus postage 

• Officials suggest calling first to determine 

total cost. This booklet gives an overview of 

the New Madrid Fault and what to expect. 

"The Next New Madrid Earthquake: A 

Survival Guide for the Midwest" 

By William Atkir.son 

Southern Illinois University Press, Carbondale, 1989 

- ,$19.95 cloth, $10.95 paper. 

""'ii This book explains the quake threat and 

details how to prepare. 

"The New Madrid Earthquakes" 

revised edition 

By James LaiPenick Jr. 

University of Missouri Press, Columbia, 1981 ; 

$12.95. 

• This book details the history of the great 

New Madrid quakes of 1811-12. 

"Earthquakes and Volcanoes" 

Available from: 

Superintendent of Documents 

U.S. Government Printing Office, 

Washington, D.C. 20402 

Or by credit card at (202) 783-3238; $6.50 a 

year. 

• A bimonthly journal of the U.S. Geological 

Survey with information on quakes presented 

at a popular level. 

"Earthquakes" 

By Bruce Bolt. W.H. Freeman, New York, 

1988; $13.95. 

• This book details quakes and how they 

work. 

"On Shaky Ground: America's Earthquake Alert" 

By John J. Nance. 

Avon Books, New York, 1989; $4.95. 

• This book outlines the threat quakes pose 

to the nation. 

"Terra Non Firma" 

By J.M. Gere and H.C. Shah. W.H. Freeman, 

New York, 1984; $12.95. 

• Provides a general discussion of. quakes .. . 

occurs. 

• Show staff the location of the main gas, 

electricity and water shut-off valves. Assign 

people to check their status and to turn them 

off if the need arises. 

• Prepare a map of the school and school 

grounds and distribute to all staff members. 

ln_clude basic evacuation procedures and potential earthquake hazards to avoid. 

• Make a list and map of the location and 

availability of first aid kits, sleeping materials 

and other emergency supplies. 

• Eliminate non structural hazards. Bolt all 

file cabinets, book shelves and equipment to 

structural elements of the buildings. Remove 

all heavy objects from high shelves. Secure all 

light fixtures and air ducts to the structural 

elements of the buildings. Equip windows with 

safety glass or cover them with protective 

film. 

• Make inventories of hazardous chemicals in areas such as the science building and 

maintenance shops. Appoint someone to 

check on these chemicals after an 

earthquake. 

• Arrange with structural engineers or contractors to report to the school directly after a 

disaster to determine the damage and the 

need to evacuate. 

dures to follow. These include: 

- Implementing basic " duck and cover" 

actions when an earthquake begins. 

-Storing an emergency kit near the desk, 

containing a roll sheet, special medical information and student release information. 

- Knowing when to evacuate and when to 

remain in the classroom after an earthquake. 

-Administering first aid to those seriously 

wounded and comforting those who are in 

shock, frightened or hysterical. 

-Check-out procedures for releasing a 

student to an adult. 

-A " buddy system " with another teacher 

and class, so that if one teacher is injured, the 

other can take care of students and get them 

to safety. 

· • Establish damage-assessment 

procedures. 

• Establish emergency sanitation 

procedures. 

• Assign a representati ve to serve as liaison with the press after a disaster. :. 

• Assign and train staff for seai cfi and 

rescue. 

Recovery 

• Learn whether your schools have been • Gather information on record-keeping redesignated as a potential mass-care shelter. quirements and financial-aid sources for di-

• Establish a back-up communications sys- saster relief. 

tem such as a citizens band radio, ham opera- • Develop absentee policies for teachers 

tion or two-way radio to communicate with and students in the event of a disaster. 

emergency services. Train someone to use • Contact mental-health organizations to 

this equipment. provide counseling to students after an 

• Include an earthquake-preparedness earthquake. 

program in the curriculum. • Develop alternative teaching methods for 

• Establish programs between the schools students unable to return immediately to 

and parent-teachers associations that en- classes, for instance, correspondence classcourage a home earthquake-preparedness es, tele-teaching, group tutoring. 

plan and discuss the district's policies regard- • Develop a plan for conducting classes if 

ing student release and absenteeism. some facilities are damaged - half-day ses-

• Secure vital data and records. Establish sions, alternative sites, portable classrooms. 

back-ups of important data and store them in Source: Bay Area Regional Earthquake Pre-

-an oft-site-location. - , - • -· ' • • • • • • •, -. · ' -paredness Project 

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ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH, OCTOBER 28, 1990 ~@ 19H 

EARTHQUAKE ~_,) PREPAREDNESS 

~-------------------- Guidelines For Business 

Here are items for business leaders to consider when preparing for 

an earthquake: 

Preparedness and 

Mitigation 

• Conduct a hazard vulnerability 

analysis of all the buildings and 

structures occupied by your 

business. 

• Strengthen or eliminate hazardous structures. 

• Eliminate nonstructural hazards. Bolt all file cabinets, book 

shelves and equipment to structural 

elements of the buildings. Remove 

all heavy objects from high shelves. 

Secure all light fixtures and air ducts 

to the structural elements of the 

buildings. Equip windows with safety 

glass, or cover them with protective 

film. 

• Start employee earthquake 

awareness programs. 

• Stress the importance of preparing a home plan to employees so 

that if the disaster occurs while they 

are in the office their families are 

prepared. 

• Make agreements with vendors 

and suppliers to assure continuity of 

business. 

• Develop and maintain inventories of critical supplies. equipment 

and employee skills. 

• Establish specific company policies to inform the public about the 

continued delivery of services and 

goods in the event of an earthquake. 

• Identify the company's vital records. Consider duplicating them 

and storing them off-site. 

• Establish procedures for identiBUSINESS AND INDUSTRY 

facilities and equipment. 

• Plan to conduct initial damage 

assessments and identify perilous 

conditions. 

Response 

• Plan to provide continuous communications with employees and 

other occupants of the building to 

provide hazard warning, instructions 

and announcements, status of critical lifelines and emergency services 

and information about damage and 

sources of assistance. 

• Make available emergency power to supply critical operations, processes and emergency equipment. 

• Develop and test evacuation 

plans. 

• Develop a plan to determine 

when it is safe to re-enter buildings. 

• Establish a plan to activate security procedures for securing vital 

records and documents? 

• Offer first aid and CPR training 

courses to employees? 

• Develop plans to provide for the 

emergency housing, feeding and 

non-medical care of employees and 

other building occupants for the first 

72 hours after the disaster. 

• Assign a spokesperson to act as liaison with the media after an 

earthquake to insure that accurate 

information is given. 

Recovery 

• Plan to conduct a comprehensive damage survey of the facilities 

to determine the need for temporary 

relocation and/or the timing of 

alternate headquarters, restoring 

damaged utility systems to minimal 

operating levels and controlling access to company facilities. 

• Identify alternative sources of 

essential supplies and replacement 

parts if your normal vendors are unable to function after the quake. 

• Make arrangments to provide 

information to the news media about 

service hours, location of operations 

and any changes in procedures. 

Source: Bay Area Regional Earthquake Preparedness Project. 

EARTHQUAKE 

SURVIVAL KIT 

Contains water, food, first aid, ra· 

dio, lights & other items needed 

for survival following a disaster. 

For home, office and car. 

Kit 1 (1 person 3 days) s4gso 

Kit 2 (2 people 3 days) ssgoo 

Kit 3 (4 people 3 days) $14950 

Emergency Drinking Water $

3800 

(5 year shelf life 60 pkts) 

liiiiiiil Plus tax & shipping ~ 

~CALL (314) 968·9358 ~ 

as 

Mag-Lites 

Batteries 

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£~~ 

<' \ Wool Blankets v $595 

- Solar Emergency 

Blanket $195 

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lying and containing hazardous 

materials. 

• Develop procedures for immediate cessation of processes which 

could threaten employees and general public safety if interrupted by an 

earthquake. 

• Take steps to protect computer 

reoccupancy. 

• Develop plans for the clean-up 

and repair cit company property. 

• Establish plans for business 

restoration, including restoring essential facilities and/or establishing 

temporary facilities, ensuring key 

personnel report to work sites or 

BOOKS AND PAMPHLETS FROM FEMA 

Here is a list of some of the free 

booklets and pamplets produced by 

the Federal Emergency Management 

Agency that may be useful in reducing 

the hazards of an earthquake. They 

are available by writing FEMA, P.O. 

Box 70274, Washington, DC, 20024. 

A complete list of publications in the 

Earthquake Hazards Reduction Series also is available from FEMA. 

• Earthquake Insurance: A Public 

Policy Dilemma, FEMA 68. 

• Earthquake Preparedness Information for People with Disabilities, 

FEMA 70. 

• Comprehensive Earthquake Preparedness Planning Guidelines: Corporate, FEMA 71. 

• Comprehensive Earthquake Preparedness Planning Guidelines: 

County, FEMA 72. 

• Comprehensive Earthquake Preparedness Planning Guidelines: City, 

FEMA 73. 

• Reducing the Risks of Non structural Earthquake Damage: A Practical 

Guide, FEMA 74. 

• Preparedness for People with 

Disabilities (Brochure), FEMA 75. 

• Preparedness in High-Rise Buildings (Brochure), FEMA 76. 

• Guidelines for Local Small Businesses, FEMA 87. 

• Societal Implications: A Community Handbook, FEMA 83. 

• An Action Plan for Reducing 

Earthquake Hazards of Existing Buildings, FEMA 90. 

• Preparedness in Apartments and 

Mobile Homes, FEMA L-143. 

• Seismic Considerations, Elementary, Secondary Schools, FEMA 149. 

• Rapid Visual Screening of Buildings for Potential Seismic Hazards: A 

Handbook, FEMA 154. 

• Earthquake Safety Checklist, 

FEMA46. 

See FEMA, Page 19 1J l r . 

SAVE 15% PLUS 

FREEl Shading 

• System* With any System 4 or System 6 Purchase 

Offer Ends Oct. 31, 1990 

(314) 831-2262 

DSM Call Toll Free 

1-800-358-3087 Enti~~~lu• tt·~~~s:;·;~·;; pj~~;~;t''· 

Shadin& Srstem Dnlr. 

3533 Dunn Rd., Florissant 

5 Gallon Water 

~arrier~ 

~Plastic Water .· ·. . Bottles Canteens ·. 

Polytraps 

Wide Variety 

of Sizes 

Tents 

~ First Aid ~it Variety Gl and A1r Force - Style 

Water Purification 

Tablets 

Whistles & Shovels 

~~t~~~~~!r Wide Assortment. 

Sleeping Bags 

Kerosene Lights ~ Wide Assortment 

Florescent Lanterns . Bags, Packs 

Propane Heaters, --~:. & Duffles 

Stoves & Cylinders . . ~v 

Waterproof Ammo cans Vmyl Ponchos - · for storage of items Asst. Colors 

GOT A NEWS TIP? 

CALL THE 

POST -DISPATCH 

231-POST 

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"" £AR111QUAKE ®. PREPAREDNESS " · '""" "'""""'"· """"" ,. '"" 

How To Get More Information 

IF YOU HAVE MORE QUESTIONS 

Answers to further questions about quake 

preparedness may be available from: 

American Red Cross, St. Louis Bi-State 

Chapter, 4050 Lindell Boulevard, St. Louis, 

63108; (314) 658-2000. The chapter recently 

published an "Earthquake Preparedness and 

Response Workbook." 

Central United States Earthquake Consortium, 2630 Holmes Road East, Memphis, Tenn., 

38118; 1-800-824-5817. 

St. Louis residents 

City Emergency Management Agency, 1315 

Chestnut Street, St. Louis, 631 03; (314) 622-

3501. 

St. Louis County residents 

Office of Emergency Management, St. Louis 

Gounty Police Department. 14847 Olive Boulevard, Chesterfield 63017. Earthquake information line: 331 -0350. The line lists phone numbers 

where residents in other Missouri counties can 

call for information. 

Missouri residents 

State Emergency Management Agency, P.O. 

Box 116, Jefferson City, 65102; (314) 751-9571. 

Center for Earthquake Studies, Southeast 

Missouri State University, One University Plaza, 

Cape Girardeau, 63701; (314) 651-2019. 

Federal Emergency Management Agency, 

Kansas City Regional Office, 911 Walnut Street, 

Kansas City, 64106; (816) 283-7061 . 

Illinois residents 

Earthquake Information, Illinois Emergency 

Services and Disaster Agency, 11 0 East Adams 

Street, Springfield, 62706; (217) 782-4448. 

Federal Emergency Management Agency, 

Chicago Regional Office, 175 West Jackson 

Boulevard, 4th floor, Chicago, 60604-2698; 

(312) 408-5540. 

BOOKS & PAMPHLETS (FEMA) 

Hazards 

From page Nineteen 

• Coping with Children's Reactions to Earthquakes and Other Disasters, FEMA 48. 

• Guidebook for Developing a School Earthquake Safety Program, FEMA 88. 

• Family Earthquake Safety Home Hazard 

Hunt and Drill, FEMA 113. 

• Earthquakes: A Teacher's Package for K-6 

Grades, FEMA 159. 

NEIGHBORHOOD ORGANIZATIONS 

Here are items for residents to consider when 

preparing to establish a neighborhood response 

organization: 

Preparedness and Mitigation 

• Appoint a Neighborhood Leader or Block 

Coordinator who will keep a record of neighborhood residents, skills and equipment. 

• Identify people in your neighborhood who 

may require special assistance in an emergency. 

• Develop a list of tools, equipment and materials available in the neighborhood, including private sector resources. ,. 

• Organize first aid, search and rescue, communications, firefighting and damage assessment teams and give _adequate training. 

• Develop self-help networks between neighborhoods through a skills bank. 

• Have a pre-established location where the 

injured can be treated. 

• Know your neighborhood's ham radio and 

citizens band radio operators. 

• Establish procedures for communicating 

with police, sheriff, fire and emergency services. 

• Inventory the number and types of mobile 

(RV) equipment. 

• Inform everyone which radio station to listen 

to and where emergency equipment and supplies are kept. 

Response 

• Know how to check in on neighbors. 

• Know how to check in with the Neighborhood Leader or Block Coordinator. 

• Arrange to hang a white "flag" after earthquake to signal that everyone is all right. 

• Volunteers should be available to: 

- Administer first aid to the seriously injured. 

-Conduct initial damage assessments. 

- Make a list of missing persons. 

- Make a list of injured persons and identify 

medical needs. If they require hospitalization, tag 

them before transporting in case they become 

unconscious. Keep track of where the injured are 

sent. 

- Begin removal of rubble and other material 

that may block emergency response functions. 

- Keep wandering pets in a confined area. 

-Identify those structures that pose potential 

hazards and post warning signs or cordon off. 

• Set up a mobile/central communications 

center. 

• Contact outside support services, report 

damages, request needed supplies and offer 

skills and resources that are available. 

• Keep radio channels open and stand by for 

emergency information and instructions. 

• Set up assistance centers for incoming 

evacuees. 

• Set up procedures for water purification and 

alternative waste disposal. 

Recovery 

• Work in with public and private support organizations during the recovery phase. 

• Determine water needs for the neighborhood and identify nearby water resources. 

.• Refer residents to the local Disaster Assistance Center for help in rebuilding, relocating and 

finding family members and friends. 

• Provide updated status reports on damage 

to neighborhood residents. 

• Promote earthquake preparedness in the 

recovery and rebuilding phase. 

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ARE YOUR BATTERIES READY? 

The Copper Top" Tester is built into 

each Duracell package to insure your 

batteries are ready if, and when, you 

need them. 

The Copper Top Tester. It's part of the 

package. It's absolutely free. And, it's 

only from Duracell! 

Available at all fine stores in the 

greater St. Louis area. 

Reprinted by permission 

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232 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

The Southern Illinoisan 

Your guide to getting ready :•, '· ., '' .. .. ( ., ...... .. - .,, ' > ., 

Understanding quakes Plans of action What you can do " 

'\' Get the facts on faults, Find out who's doing what learn what it tokes to ,., · predictions and myths to lend you a helping hand preserve health and hearth .... . 

" 

:_'.'\ ·. A detail~d index· c_an be found on Page 2 

Special Section Sunday, November 18, 1990 

Reprinted by permission 
APPENDIX E-PREPAREDNESS LITERATURE 

Section Index 

Dispute: With few exceptions, Available: State and federal 

the scientific community continues agencies ore ready to assist the 

to debunk lben Browning's Dec. 3 region, and officials promise aid 

prediction ................................. 3 will not be drained away to more 

populated areas ...................... .7 

Responsive: low enforcement 

agencies and the Notional Guard 

hove been making plans to assist 

with manpower and equipment .. 8 

Flood control: Most dams in 

Southern Illinois were built with 

quakes in mind, consisting of 

sloping earthen structures not 

given to crocking or collapse .. 1 2 

Hospitals: Officials believe they 

ore as prepared as con be for on 

earthquake, including making 

arrangements to hove water 

truckea i_n if necessary ....... 14-15 

Unpredictable: While earthquake experts ore nearly unanimous in shooti"ng down 

predictions of earthquake dotes, 

there is less consensus about 

their own official forecasts of 

donger ..................................... 4 Utilities: Illinois Commerce Com- Schools: District officials detail 

mission survey suggests the lorg- how children would be cored for, 

Depth-defying: Unlike other fault est utilities ore ready and hove and they offer advice to parents 

systems around the world, scien- comprehensive emergency plans about when to call or come to 

tists studying the New Madrid in place .................................... 9 your child's school ............ 16-17 

ore following on invisible trail.. .. 5 Security: A practical guide to Nutrition: A step-by-step guide 

to preparing the pantry, with 

sample menus........................ 18 Mythology: "One of the problems is that people ore unwittingly scoring the socks off kids by 

talking about worst-case scenarios as normal and probable 

events" .................................... 6 

bolting, nailing, sticking and 

other techniques to make · ycur 

hom~ quake-ready. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 1 0 

Reassurance: Clinical child psyUnderstanding: A graphic de- chologist recommends parents 

piction of what causes earth- comfort, reassure children with 

quakes. . .. . . . .. . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 11 honesty, information. .. . . . . . . . . . . . 19 

SAFE ·PURIFIED WATER 0 0 BROUGHT. TO YOU BY: () 

AVAILABLE AT OUR CAREFULLY MONITORED S10,000 ~ATER PURIFICATION (\ 0 VENDING MACHINE LOCATED IN OUR STORE. \J 

0. Drinking Water 40 (: PER or Purif.ied.Water 

(a blend of filtered & purified water) GALLON (low sodmm-pu!•f~ed dnnkmg water for all distilled uses) 

Why? You and your family can survive for several days without food, but only for a short time without water. Store a 2 week 

233 

. supply of water for each member of your family NOW! 

How Much Do 1 Need? In moderate weather a normally active person requires a minimum of V2 gallon of water per day for ·Q 

• drinking and food preparation. Some of the need for liquids can be met by using ·the juices from canned fruits and 

vegetables. (Additional water will be required for bathing, brushing teeth and dishwashing.) · How Do r Store It? At Country Fair you can buy a 2.112 gallon container for s5.49 and a five gallon container for s5.99. Clearly 

mark these containers with current date and plan to use it or discard it within 1 year. St~ in a cool, dark location. 

Where Do I Get It? Available at Carbondale Country Fair. • 4 Pak Emergency Household Candles $1.19 • 
1' . ·r 

Quake 

expert: 

I ben 

Browning 

is out of 

his league 

1800 

18111812 

1807 

1850 

1843 1857 

1900 

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18861895 1906 

MAJOR EARTHQUAKES 

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Triple Convergence I 

I 

1868 1929 

1950 

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1952 1971 1989 

Dec.3, 1990 

Comparison of earth tides and earthquakes 

This chart shows the historic lack of relationship between a triple convergence, upon which climato-

·logist lben Browning based his projection of an earthquake along the New Madrid fouh, ond any 

major. earthquakes. The- triple convergence of tides, moon and sun, which occurs about every 68 

years, is set to occ4r Dec. 3, 1990. The triple convergence occurred four years - not 48 hours -

aport. from the New Madrid quake of 1811, and at least 12 years have separated the triple convergence from c:u;y other major historic quakes. 

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By Brian Mattmlller 

Of The Sou them Illinoisan 

MfMPHIS, Tenn. - Climatologisi lben Browning has . been describcd ·as both·a "home run hitter" 

and a "pop ny artist'.' in relation to 

his controversial earthquake prediction for the New Madrid fault. 

But a scientist at Memphis State 

University may have delivered the 

ultimate criticism: lben Browning is 

simply out of his league. 

Jim Dorman, associate director of 

the Center for Earthquake Research 

and Information at Memphis State, 

said few people have recognized that 

Browning, who lives , in New 

Mexico, earned his Ph.D. in 

microbiology, not seismology. · 

His prediction techniques also 

point out the difference between 

valid scientific research and an educated hunch, Dorman said. 

Nonetheless, Browning'.s 5()..50 

prediction of a magnitude 6.5 · or 

stronger earthquake Dec. 2-3 has 

triggered waves of media allention 

and public hysteria. National Guard 

units were placed on alert in some Missouri 311d Arkansas counties. 

Some school districts have planned 

to close their doors. Talk of early 

December vacations are rampant. 

A panel of scientists formed by 

the National Earthquake Prediction 

Evaluation Council ripped Browning's prediction last month, con- cluding that it has "absolutely no scientific basis." 

Browning refused an interview 

with The Southern Illinoisan and re- ferred all inquiries to David 

Stewart, director of the Center for 

Earthquake Information at Southeast Missouri Stale University. Stewart was an early supporter of 

Browning's work, a stance which 

brought him criticism from the scientific community. 

Reports also resurfaced about 

Stewart's past faculty position at the 

University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. In 1976, Stewart invited Texa~ psychic Clarissa Bernhardt to 

campus, where she predicted an earthquake would hit the Wilmington area in January of 1976. 

The earthquake never happened, 

but a swirl of controversy followed 

her prediction. Stewart was denied 

tenure in the UNC-Chapel Hill geology department the next year. 

Stewart, contacted earlier this 

month, said he doesn't accept the 

scientific dressing-down of Browning's work. In fact, Stewart said that 

three of the II scientists on the panel had been calling Browning a quack months before the study was conducted. 

Dorman thinks science became 

the missing element in these decisions. Unlike most scientific 

conclusions, which involve months 

of wrillen verification and compa- "They didn't really look," Stewart 

rison with other research, Dorman said. "A scientific evaluation of 

said Browning prelly much skipped ' Browning has yet to be done. This is 

the documentation and went something that is going to have to 

straight for the glory. be done in the proper scientific setting." ·"He's got a hunch," Dorman said. 

"It's still a hunch which he hasn't 

checked out ... The Browning situation just drives you up the wall. It 

makes this whole game of science 

look different from what it actually 

is like.'' · 

Browning's research is based ·on the "triggering" effect of tidal forces on earthquakes, an area which Stewart feels needs more study. In the 

past two years, different scientific 

studies have made contradictory 

conclusions about the ability of high 

tidal forces to cause earthquakes, he 

said. • 

Tidal maximums are times when 

the gravitational force of the sun and moon reach cyclical peaks. 

, Even if Browning's prediction 

proves false, the earthquake preparedness that revolved around the 

prediction has done a great deal of 

$OOd for the six-slate New Madrid 

region, Stewart said in a prepared 

statement. 

Thousands of preparedness drills 

have followed the prediction, and 

people have made lasting structural 

improvements to their homes and 

businesses, he pointed out. 

"These are lasting benefits. They are permanent," he said. "Regard· 

less of when )he big quake docs 

occur, and it definitely will some day, lives will be saved and property 

l,osses red~ced because of what people are domg.now." 

Stewart has described Browning 

as a "home run hiller" based on his 

past predictions of the San Francis- co earthquake and the Mount St. 

1-ielens volcano. But the scientific 

team found actual transcripts of 

Browning's !'predictions" that tell a 

vastly different story. 

Regarding the Lorna Prieta, 

Calif.,earthquake of Oct. 17, 1989, a transcript of Browning's talk a few 

days before the earthquake did not 

mention San Francisco or even California. His words were: "There will 

probably be s'e'veral earthquakes 

around the world, Richter 6-plus, 

and there may be a volcano or two." 

Scientists at the conference said 

that there are around II 0 earthquakes worldwide that register magnitude 6 or more every year. 

Guessing whether one will occur somewhere in a three-day period is an excellent bet. 

' A scientific 

evaluation of 

Browning has yet 

to be done. This is 

something that is 

going to have to be 

done in the proper 

scientific setting. 

David Stewart, director 

Center for 

Earthquake Information 

Cape Girardeau 

"That makes it look like a pop ny 

instead of a home run," Dorman 

said. 

Researchers picked up a trend of 

vagueness in all the documented 

evidence of Drowning predictions, 

including: 

• The San Fernando earthquake 

of 1971, magnitude 6.6. They found no evidence that Browning had predicted this one. The earthquake did 

occur on a tidal maximum, but that 

maximum was much smaller than more than 10 other tidal maximums 

that occurred over the nrior en months. 

• The Managua, Nicaragua, 

earthquake or 1972, magnitude 6.2. 

There was also no written evidence 

found that Drowning had predicted 

the earthquake as he had claimed. This earthquake occurred three days 

after a tidal maximum. but the max- imum was not particularly large and 

was preceded by three much larger 

maximums. 

With Browning's prcdicti~ of a Mount St. Helens volcano, Dorman 

said that anyone living in Washington could have predicted the eruption simply by reading the papers. 

Scientists in the area had been issuing warnings about increased vol- canic activity for days in advance. 

and eventually evacuations look 

place ncar the volcano. he said. 

The scientific team also looked al 

Browning's "danger dales." or periods of high earlhquake danger due 

lo tidal forces. and how past earlhquakes correlate with those dales. 

They looked at the period from Jan. 

I, 19R6. to Sept. 28. 1990. and gave 

Browning an expanded . window lhal 

included three davs before and aflcr 

his danger date. · 

From there. they began to plol 

164 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater that occurred over that fi. 

ve-year period. 

If all the earlhquakes were dispersed evenly throughout that time 

frame, scientists found that 10.6 

earthquakes would have fallen ran- domly on Drowning's danger dates. 

As it happened, only 12 of the 164 

earthquakes over that time fell within Browning's dates. 

"Thus, this correlation contludes 

that Brown in~ 'predict ions' arc not 

significantly different than 

random," the report said. 

Jill Stewart, seismic resource cen- ter manager at lhe Memphis State. 

said the report on Browning "pul 

him right in the realm of astrology, 

where you say very general things, 

and then re-interpret it in the light 

of the real experience afterwards." 

But the prediction could carry 

heavy consequences for I he future of 

earthquake planning in the New 

Madrid region. she said. , · 

"The downside to all of this is if 

people forget afler Dec. 3." she said. 

"Then lhc disservice thai lben 

Drowning will have done I his area is 

absolutely immense ." 

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Predictions 

Uncertainty the only sure thing 

By Brian Mattmiller 

Of The Southern Illinoisan 

MEMPHIS, Tenn. - National 

earthquake e~perts show great confidence in gunning down predictions 

that pinpoint earthquake dates, but 

there's less consensus about their own omcial forecasts of earthquake 

danger. 

The New Madrid fault now has 

two scientific studies that predict 

the likelihood of earthquakes of 

magnitude 6 or more on the Richter 

scale. Most researchers agree that 

both are scientifically valid. 

The problem is, both have significantly different results. 

Arch Johnston, director of the 

Center for Earthquake Research and 

Information at Memphis State 

University, is an author of the most 

well-known forecast for eartlu!uake 

danger along the New Madrid. Johnston used charts of past New 

Madrid earthquakes, culled from 

seismographs and historical records, 

to determine when larger earthquakes are likely to reoccur. It's called a time-dependent model. Johnston said it's based on the 

concept that faults accumulate stress over time and will release that stress 

in a cyclical fashion. 

According to his research, the 

probability of an earthquake of magnitude 6 to 6.3 is 40 percent to 63 

percent in the next 15. years. That 

probability jumps to 86 percent to 

97 percent over the next 50 years. 

only beginning to go beyond 

'the 

massive 1811-1812 tremors. 

The r'andom model "is sort of 

like a default model, when you 

can't do anything else," he said. 

Another problem with' ·getting 

confident predictions on the New 

Madrid fault is the relative strange- ness of the 1811-12 earthquakes. 

Within that three-month winter 

period, an unprecedented . four 

earthquakes beyond magnitude 8 

rattled the region. It's hard to put 

those earthquakes into any sort, of 

solid pattern, he said. 

"That does throw another curve at figuring out what's going on," he 

said. "A sequence of major earthquakes like that is very rare. Usualfy, you get a well-defined 

main shock and a series of 

afiershocks in declining si.ze." ' 

One theory is that ihe New 

Madrid is a segmented fault zone, 

with three or four distinct f~ult 

lines. When one broke, it transferred stress to other segments of 

the fault. They broke soon afier in a chain-reaction fashion. 

More accurate predictions , Will 

rely almost entirely on a bette~ scientific understanding of the fault, 

Johnston said. In California, for e~ample, scientists have a :very 

good idea of what portion of a fault 

is more susceptible to an earthquake than others. They have a longer chronology of earthquake 

activity documented on the San 

Browning predicts 

probable quake Dec. 2 

along the New Madrid 

Fault. Og September 9, 

1990, an earthquake, 

registering 4.6 on 

the Richter scale, 

occurred on the fault. 

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However, an earthquake of magnitude 7 to 8.3 has a less than I percent probability in the ne~t 15 years, 

and 2. 7 to 4 percent in the next 50 

years. 

These numbers were the standard 

for earthquake readiness in the sixstate New Madrid region. But a 1990 study, which used the same data but followed different assumptions about earthquakes, added a new perspective to the danger. 

S. Nischenko and G. Bollinger, 

both from the U.S. Geological 

Survey, approached research with 

the assumption that quakes are triggered by the combined activity of numerous faults, and are not nec- essarily dependent on time. 

Their research greatly reduced the 

odds of a magnitude 6 to 6.3 

earthquake, which has a 16 to 24 

percent likelihood in the next 15 

years. A larger earthquake of magnitude 7 to 8.3, however, has a 2 to 4 

percent chance over the same period - as much as four t¥nes more likely than in Johnston's research. 

Scientists would probably love to 

have a unanimous voice, but 

Johnston said that isn't likely with 

the still-puzzling New Madrid fault. 

"The range in probabilities is sort 

of the range of our uncertainty," 

Johnston said. 

"What Nischenko and Bollinger are saying is that our state of knowledge about the earthquake process 

at mid-plate settings like the Eastern 

U.S. is so poor that time-dependent 

modeling is not called for," he said. 

Timt"-dependent modeling is 

most accurate when researchers can look way back into historical re- cords of earthquakes. At New 

Madrid. the earthquake record is 

Reprinted by permission 

Andreas fault. 

Johnston said having the same r------------------------------------------, 

sort of information for the submerged New Madrid fault is a long 

way off. ' 

Amid all this uncertainty: ,the 

public's willingness to embrace, lben 

Browning's Dec. 3 prediction is 

hardly surprising. Browning's th~ory 

of tidal forces triggering earthquakes, ironically, has :been 

studied by scientists for almost' 70 

years, but the results have been' either "marginal, negative ' or inconclusive," Johnston said. 

Tidal forces refer to periods when 

the gravitational force exertep • by the sun and moon are at their pe'lks. "Tidal triggering can't be rejected 

out of hand - that's why we've had 

all these studies," he said. "'My 

problem is that other things cause considerably larger stresses on the 

crust than tidal forces." ' 

Man-made events, for example, have been proven to cause earthquakes. ' ' 

"We've seen that when you form a larfe reservoir behind a ' new dam,' Johnston said. "We see it at 

deep-well hazardous waste injection sites, where you're injecting ,fl'uid 

under the crust under pressure: The 

deep gold mines in South Africa 

trigger events above a magnitude 5 

sometimes." ' 

Johnston and others also believe 

they've found a correlation between 

the Mississippi River's high-water 

stage and some smaller earthqua~es. 

"But the results are nothing ¥ou'd 

want to hang your hat on." . Earthquake prediction alon~ the 

New Madrid is likely to remain son around the edges. Scientists know a large earthquake will occur. When, 

where and why are still open ques- tions. 

Need extras of this section? 

limited quantity available 

There will be a limited quantity of extra Earthquake 

sections available for schools or groups that wish to add this 

local information package to their program. Priority will be 

given to community education uses. 

Quantities of 10 or more 

I want to order extra copies of earthquake 

sections at 35¢ each. 

__ copies X .35 = __ + 2.50 shipping =-=--:--- Tot..a1C'08t 

(occtionA can be held ror pick-up to eliminate shipping chArgeo) 

_______ State __ Zip ____ _ 

Send payment and coupon to: Earthquake Section, Southern 

lllinoioAn, P. 0. Box 2108, Carbondale, IL 62902 

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238 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS LITERATURE 

University of Arkansas 

Cooperative 

Extension - Service. __ _ 

Fact Sheet 51 07 

Earthquake 

Preparedness 

University of Arkansas, United States Department of Agriculture, and ·County Governments Cooperating 

This fact sheet will help 

you plan for and survive a 

major earthquake. It tells 

you what to do before, 

during, and after the quake 

to lessen the impact on 

your family and your 

home. 

One of the worst earthquakes 

in recent history occurred along 

the New Madrid Fault in the 

winter of 1811-1812. This fault 

zone is of great concern to 

Arkansans because of the amount 

of damage that will result should 

another quake occur. Geologists 

predict that the chances of another 

major earthquake in the area are 

quite high. Being prepared can 

lessen the impact. 

Be prepared to be selfsufficient for at least 3 days after 

the quake. Following are precautions to be taken before, during, 

and after the earthquake. 

BEFORE THE QUAKE 

1. Conduct a hazard hunt. Some 

possible hazards include: 

• Tall heavy furniture which 

could topple such as bookcases, china cabinets, or 

modular wall units. 

• Appliances which could move 

enough to rupture gas or electrical lines. 

• Hanging plants in heavy pots 

that could swing free of hooks. 

• Heavy picture frames or 

mirrors over the bed. 

The map predicts damage amesponding to Roman numerals on the Modified 

Mercalli Scale in an 8.6 earthquake. If an 

earthquake is around 7.6 on the Richter 

scale, reduce the zone Roman numerals 

by one. For example, substitute X for XI in 

Mississippi and Crittenden Counties and 

read the damage on the Modified Mercalli 

Scale under X. If the earthquake is a 6.6, 

then reduce the zone numeral by two. For 

example, Mississippi 

and Crittenden Counties 

would experience 

damage listed under IX 

on the Modified 

Mercalli Scale. 

Modified Mercalli 

Intensity Scale 

VI People are frightened and· run outdoors. Heavy furniture may be moved; 

some instances of 

fallen plaster and 

toppling of chimneys. 

Slight damage. 

VII Everybody runs 

outdoors. Damage is 

negligible in buildings of good design 

ana construction, 

slight to moderate in ordinary structures, and considerable in poorly built 

or badly designed structures. Chimneys broken. Felt in moving automobiles. 

VIII Some damage even in buildings 

of good design and construction. 

Considerable damage in ordinary 

buildings, with some collapsing. 

Great damage in poorly constructed 

buildings. Panel walls thrown out of 

frame structures. Falling of houses 

and factory chimneys, columns, monuments, and walls. Heavy furniture 

overturned. Sand and mud ejected in 

• Latches on kitchen or other 

cabinets which will not hold 

the door closed during 

shaking. 

• Breakables or heavy objects 

that are kept on high or open 

shelves. 

small amounts. Changes in well 

water. Hinders driving of automobiles. 

IX Damage considerable in buildings 

of good design and construction. 

Structures thrown out of alignment 

with foundations. Ground cracked 

conspicuously. Underground pipes 

damaged. 

X Wooden houses of good design 

and construction collapse. Most 

masonry and frame structures 

destroyed together with foundations. 

Ground cracked causing damage, 

rails bent, slopes and embankments 

slide, water surface rises. 

XI Almost all masonry structures collapse, bridges destroyed, fissures over 

entire surface of ground. Underground pipelines completely out of 

service. Earth slumps and land slips in 

soft ground. Rails bent prominently. 

• A masonry chimney that could 

crumble and fall through an 

unsupported roof. 

• Flammable liquids like painting or cleaning products that 

would be safer in a garage or 

outside shed. 
APPENDIX E-PREP AREDNESS LITERATURE 239 

Reprinted by permission 
240 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

PAGE2 SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 1990 

AN OVERVIEW 

Why we 

should take 

earthquakes 

seriously 

No one can predict when an earthquake will strike, even "give or take 

48 hours." But one thing is certain - if there is a bad earthquake any time, you could be on your own for up 

to three days. What you do now will determine 

how well you handle those three 

days. 

The chances of surviving an earthquake are extremely high, but the 

chances of damage to your home and 

temporary loss of utility services are high as well. 

electricity would be out; overp3sses 

and bridges may collapse or be 

unusable until inspected, so food 

could not be brought into west Kentucky for days; it may even be 

impossible for you or emergency 

workers to get across town because 

of the debris. Undoubtedly there will be some emergency Services, but you should not depend on them to help you; 

everyone else will be in as bad or worse condition than you. 

itable. 

Every area of the country has its 

risks of natural disasters. The North 

has its cold winters, the coasts their 

hurricanes. There are risks even in 

driving down a street. All are potential killers, and all have killed more Americans than earthquakes. 

Because we have not had any large 

quakes in living memory, (and, for 

the believers, if Dec. 3 passes peace- fully), it does not mean that we can all relax. 

Geologists and seismologists, the 

experts who study earthquakes, believe there is enough energy built 

up in the New Madrid Fault to cause a quake of 7.6 on the Richter Scale. But because a fault seldom unleashes 

all of its energy in one quake, most experts believe a 6.0 to 6.5 quake is 

what we can expect. These occur about every 80 years. The last one was 95 years ago, so the experts 

think another one is overdue. If there is a major quake in the . range of 7 .6, there would be severe damage to buildings and utilities. Your home or office could become a dangerous shambles of overturned 

furniture, leaking gas, falling plaster 

and broken glass. Phones, gas and 

If, on the other hand, we have a quake in the range of 6.0 to 6.5, 

damage would be much less severe. It would still be bad, and it is not to be ignored - a 6.5 quake would give us 100 times the shaking that the 4.6 

quake gave us Sept. 26. Utility serv- ices and food supplies that we take 

for granted probably would be interrupted, perhaps for days. Your home 

may be unsafe to occupy. 

Whether !ben Browning is correct in his assessment of earthquake con- ditions around Dec. 3 - he insists he 

did not "predict" an earthquake - is not the issue. Right or wrong he has 

awakened people across the Midwest to the fact that they live atop a sleeping giant, the New Madrid 

Fault, and that earthquakes are inevIf anything is certain, it is that 

earthquake forecasting is not certain. As a geologist readily admitted, 

"there's more that we don't know 

about earthquakes than we do know." 

They cannot say how any particular 

quake will affect any particular 

place. All they can say is that a serious quake is probable in the next few years, and a virtual certainty within the next generation. While no one can say euctly when 

there will be an earthquake, we must be ready for one at all times. It does not take much effort to be ready for an earthquake. Most precautions are the same ones you might take to be 

ready for a tornado or long power 

!allure. But the important thing is to do it. 

ANSWERS 

to the questions 

everyone is asking 

1 Will tbere really be an earthquake 

Dec. 3? 

!ben Browning's forecast- he 

insists he didn't 'predict' an earthquake 

-has caused a Jot of fear. He based it on the sun, moon and earthquake cycles, 

give or take 48 hours. Geologists have 

spent years trying to find a connection 

between those things but have found none. Browning has scientific degrees, 

but none in the ·earthquake fields. A group of scientists meeting in St. 

Louis Oct. 18 said his predictions were guesswork and coincidences. 

In Browning's defense, it's worth 

noting that the biggest shocks during the 

New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812, 

with one exception, occurred during the new moon or fuil moon. A full moon is 

due Dec. 2. 

Browning also says chances are greater than 50 percent that Tokyo will 

be struck by an 8.2 quake on or about 

Dec. 3. 

More about Browning on the next page. 

2 How bad an earthquake could we bave? 

Experts say the New Madrid 

Fault Zone is overdue for a 6.0 to 6.5 

earthquake. They happen about every 80 

years, and the last one was 95 years ago. A quake that size is just verging on a major quake. The late quake expert Dr. 

Otto Nuttli of St. Louis believed a 7.6 

quake was possible, but not expected for a century. The worst New Mardid 

earthquake in 1812 is estimated at 8.8, 

and is expected only once in 600 years. 

More about this on page 3. 

3 What are my chances of surviving? 

Despite the damage, the chances 

of living through an earthquake are extremely good. In 1985, the Federal 

Emergency Management Agency 

estimated that in a 7.6 quake, 47 people 

could be killed in Paducah if it hit during 

the daytime, and 116 if it hit at night. Most experts, however, expect only a 6.0 to 6.5 quake- only one-tenth as strong as a 7.6 - so we could expect 

proportionally fewer deaths. 

4 Didn't tbe quake last September 

make a big quake less likely, and 

doesn't it make a difference where on tbe fault a quake is centered? 

The quake Sept. 26 measured 4.6 on the 

Richter Scale. A 6.5 quake- the one we're past-<lue for- would cause 100 

times more shaking and release 1,000 

times more energy. Or, to turn it the 

other way around, there would have to be 

1,000 or so 4.6 quakes to equal a 6.5 

quake. So the September quake won't 

have much effect on 'the big one.' 

Distance from the epicenter of a quake 

does make a difference in how much 

damage it causes. But the New Madrid 

Fault is only 125 miles long. Quake 

damage forecasts are based on a quake 

centered in the middle of the zone, around Caruthersville, Mo. The distance 

from the middle of the zone to the end is 

only 80 miles or so, which means that in a big quake, there wouldn't be much 

difference in damage if it is centered 60 

miles either way. 

5 Where is a safe place to be during a quake? 

A quake .will hit and be over so quickly you won't have time to go very 

far to a safe place. You should know of some places that are generally safe 

wherever you may be. At home, work or school, under a sturdy table or desk is 

fairly good protection. 

6 Is my home or building safe? 

Newer buildings follow quake resistance building codes, but may 

suffer some damage. Chimneys and brick veneer are especially vulnerable on any 

house. Most older homes could be heavily 

damaged in a bad quake. If you live in an apartment, check with the city to see if it meets quake standards. 

7 Will tbe dams break and flood tbe 

area? 

The Corps of Engineers says the 

dams were built to withstand a 7.6 quake. 

But, as an exercise, engineers figured out 

that even if the water were already as high as it was in the 1937 flood AND 

Barkley Dam were then to break, the water would still be four feet below the 

top of Paducah's flood wall. More about 

the dams on page 16. 

8 How soon can I expect help from 

emergency service people? 

You should be prepared to be on your own for up to three days if a bad 

earthquake strikes. 

9 Will any atomic radiation escape 

from tbe Martin Marietta plant? · In the worst possible case, says a Martin Marietta spokesperson, the 

chance of any radioactive material 

escaping would be 'remote.' The material 

the plant handles has such low levels of 

radiation that a short-tenn exposure - as in a cloud of it passing over - would 

be virtually harmless. More about 

possible industrial hazards on page 21. 

1 0 Will my children be safe In 

school in an earthquake? 

Conditions of the buildings 

and de gee of earthquake planning vary. 

Emergency service officials fear a panic 

could result if parents all rush to the 

schools after a quake, and they hope 

schools could be prepared to keep 

children for a day or two if necessary. Schools outline their plans on page 18. 
APPENDIX E-PREPAREDNESS LITERATURE 

SATURDAY. NOVEMBER 3, 1990 

THE 'PREDICTION' 

lben Browning: Genius, 

crackpot or does it matter? 

BY BILL BARTLEMAN SUNSTAFFWRITER 

!ben Browning said it was in 1985 that be 

first made a projection that a major 

earthquake could bit the New Madrid fault 

region on Dec. 3, 1990. 

While skeptics said there is no accurate way to predict an earthquake, Browning 

says he made another projection in 1985: 

that a major quake might hit the San 

Francisco area at 10 a.m. on Oct.l7, 1989. 

The only mistake in the projection was the time o!day.lt actually struck at 5:04 

p.m. on Oct. 17, 1989. 

Browning, a New Mexico climatologist, 

based both earthquake projections on tidal 

forces, which cause rressure on the earth's 

crust. The amount o tidal force is 

determined on the position of the sun, moon and earth. (See diagram below.) 

The tidal force on the earth's crust is 

similar to the force that causes high and 

low tides in the ocean. Browning said the position of the sun, moon and earth during the first week in 

December will create the highest tidal 

force the New Madrid region has 

experienced in 60 years and equal to the 

force that existed in the 1811-12 quakes. 

Browning says it is inaccurate that he 

made a "prediction" that an earthquake 

would strike. "I call it a projection," he 

said in a recent interview With KFVS. TV 

in Cape Girardeau, Mo. "The difference 

between a prediction and a projection is 

that a prediction is based on a crystal ball 

and a pro1· ection is based on hard 

numbers.' 

The New Madrid fault runs from Marked 

Tree, Ark., across southeastern Missouri to Cairo, ill., and produces hundreda of 

small quakes every year, most of which 

aren't felt. It's named for the Missouri 

Bootheel town of New Madrid, about 140 

miles south of st. Louis. 

Officials say a major quake in the region 

would cause major damage in Kentucky, 

Tennessee, Missouri, illinois, Arkansas 

and lndiana. It also could cause damage in 

other surrounding states because of the 

depth of the fault. 

Browning has stopped giving interviews 

because of the high number of requests he 

has received and because of the emotion 

surrounding his projection. 

The Sun interviewed the 72-year-old 

climatologist.in January, which was the 

first time his projection was made public 

in this area. His comments then were the same as his comments in his most recent interview with KFVS. TV. 

Browning said the prohablity of an earthquake in the New Madrid fault during 

the first week of December is ~. 

An earthQuake is caused when pressure 

is released between two faults, or cracks, 

in the earth. Browning beieves the tidal 

force is one of the "triggers" that can sets off a quake. 

Browning said his prediction of a ~ 

chance of a quake is based on studies by 

others that the New Madrid Fault is under extreme pressure "and 20 years over due 

for a major earthquake." 

He said some selSffiologists have 

measured the fault and feel their is 

sufficient pressure built for a quake in the 

magnitude of 6.5 to 7.6 on the Richter 

Scale. 

U it is ready to release its pressure, he 

feels the high tidal force during the first 

week in December will serve as the 

"trigger" to release the pressure. 

Browning said he doesn't plan to be 

anywhere near the New Madrid fault in 

December. He advised residents of the 

region to be prepared for a quake by 

storing food and other necessities. 

U the quake doesn't hit on or near Dec. 

3, Browning said there will be a secondary 

triggering force on Dec. 31st, which is the 

first full moon after Dec. 3. "The tidal 

forces will not be as great then, but they 

will still be dangerously high." 

Most seismologists discount Brownings' 

theory. They say the tidal force theory is 

unproven and that Browning is causing 

unneccessary alarm in the region. 

Browning's mind isn't changed by his 

critics. "Scientists are not a particularly 

special breed of cat," Browning said in the 

television interview. "They have opinions ... biases .... Luckily this is a free country. They're free to say anything they want to. And, by the way, so am I." 

However, his said his theories are based on 30 years of research and claims to have 

made seven correct projections of either 

earthquakes or volcanoes. 

He said he correcUy predicted a Feb. 8, 

1971, earthquake in Fullerton, Calif.; a Dec. 23, 1972 quake in Managua, 

Nicaragua; a major quake in lndonesia for 

which he didn't recall the date; the Oct. 17, 

1989, quake in California, and three 

volcanoes, including Mount St. Helen in 

Washington. ' 

Browning said that in 1985 he also 

projected that a major earthquake would 

bit somewhere along the 20 degree 

northern latitudes• on Jan. 18 or 19, 1992. 

That includes Southern Mexico and the 

Middle East. : Browning told KFVS.TV that be hasn't 

enjoyed the publicity that has surrounded 

his Dec. 3 projection . . "It certainly has 

invovled a lot of telephone calls and it 

hasn't contributed in anr way to me making a living," ~ S81d. 

He said be's received calls from 

panicked housewives and school children. 

"I am a very private person and I don't 

enjoy all of the publicity. I wish it all 

would go away, but ~ recognize that it 

won't." 

He feels people have a right to know 

about the projection, but hopes there isn't 

panic. "U the P.ublic panics, there may be more people killed than if they never heard of it." 

Meanwhile, other scientists discount 

Browning's theory that tidal forces can be 

used to predict earthquakes. At a press conference last month in st. 

Louis, 11 scientists discussed their 

evaluation of Browning's work in a report 

for the National Earthquake Prediction 

Evaluation Council. They said: 

"Such a projection, especially at the 

predicted ~ chance level, implies a level of detailed knowledge ... that simply 

does not exist for the New Madrid or any 

other fault zone in tlle world." 

The scientists also said they found no evidence that Browning had predicted last 

year's major earthquake in northern 

California . "We can only infer that successes claimed before ~ttime were . retrospective - that he found after the 

fact that certain earthquakes occurred 

during times of his 'danger periods.' " 

241 

PAGE3 

,,1 call it a projection ... 

The difference between a 

prediction and a projection 

is that a prediction is based 

on a crystal ball and a 

projection is based on hard 

numbers.,, 

lben Browning's forecasts are based on several factors working together: , This added pressure could 1W be enough to cause earthquakes In areas where tho pressure already is high. · 

~iu~~-~o ~!"~:dr:dt~~~J:s , zone as well as more active 

quake areas such as California, Turkey-Armenia and Japan, In tho dark band at right. Browning says that ' 1 1 whether any specific fault erupts into a quake depends on tho pressure already built 

u~~s~r:~ientists don't believe 

the gravity of the sun and 1 

:=:==:=::==::=:=============================~~~m~oo~n~c:a~n~se~toff __ ewlhq __ ~u-a_ke_s~~~~~~~~~--~--------~--------~ 
242 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

PAGE4 

Odds favor 

6.0-6.5 quake 

Earthquakes cannot be predicted, but experts c:an 

give tho likelihood of one. happening based on history. 

These figures are from the Center for Earthquake 

Studies at Southeast Missouri State University. 

An earthquake of Is expected 0Edxpod1rt

0

s

1 1vp•~.tnthnogstby_, this magnitude... about every_. h ..,. 

4.0 18 months 

5.0 10years 

6 0 50% by year 2000 • '80 years 90% by year 2040 

6 5 ; 40-60% by 2005 • • 1 ' 55-85 years 97% by year 2040 

The last quak•s of this size occurred In 1843.near 

Marl< ad . Troo; Ark., and in 1895 at Char/aston, Mo. 

7 5 . , , 1oo/. by year 2000 • 200-300 yeai•l 25% by year 2040 

Considered a 'major' quake', it's estimated this could 

causa $30 billion damage in th0 Now Madrid Zona. 

8 0 1% by year 2000 • 500-600 years 3% by year 2040 

Tho worst of tho 1811-12 quakes havo boon 

estimated at 8 to 8.8. The sCale did not exist than. 

The most commonly used seale of r.eporting · 

earthquake strength is the Richter Scale. Oevised "in 

the 1930s, it measures ground motion at a standard 

distance from the epicenter of a quake. (The 

epicenter is the spot on the surface directly over the 

center of the quake.) It is based on a scale of ~-~0. 

Each whole number equals motion 10 times larger 

that the previous number. So a quake measuring 4.0 

has 10 t1mes more ground motion as a quake of 3.0. 

litho 4.6 quako Sop!. 26 made tho ground movo 114 

inch, a 6.6 quake- which is about what experts say is due -would make the ground move 25 mches (.25 

X 10 X 10). A 7.6 guako, which is tho worst quako 

scientists believe IS likely in the New Madf!d Zone, 

could movo tho ground21 foot (.25 X 10 X 10 X 10). 

Ar~~~de~~~~~ E~cohu~th~l:~~r~b!~ ~~~~~~e~~kfr,~he ~ichter Scale equals a more than 30-fold increase in 

the amount of energy. 

If this line, about~ 4 inches long, represented the 

energy released in the 4.6 quake on Sept. 26 ... 

., ,., ,,w.w.~ ... , .. , .. ... ··· ···.J 1 1141nchos: 4.6 quake 

... the energy in a 6.6 quake would need a line nearly 

100 feet long. To represent a 7.6 quake, the line 

would have to be twice as long as the Executive Inn. 

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 3. 1990 

GETIING READY FOR AN EARTHQUAKE 

What you can do now 

to be ready for a quake 

HAVE ON HAND 

Flashlights with spare batteries. Keep a 

flashlight beside your bed. Do not use matches 

or candles after an earthquake until you are 

certain no gas leaks exist. 

Portable radio with spare batteries. Most 

telephones will be out of order or used for 

emergency purposes so radios will be your best 

source of information. 

First Aid Kit; first aid knowledge - have a 

first aid book such as the Standard First Aid & 

Personal Safety by the American National Red 

Cross. Have members of your household take 

basic Red Cross first aid and CPR courses. 

Fire Extinguishers. Keep a fire extinguisher 

handy for small fires. Class C extinguishers are 

designed to use safely on any type of fire. Your 

fire department can show you how to use it. 

Food. It's always a practical idea to keep a 

supply of non-perishable food on hand which 

can be rotated into your diet and replenished on 

a regular basis. Have a sufficient supply of 

canned or dehydrated food, powdered milk and 

canned juices for at least 72 hours. Don't forget 

a can opener. Dried cereals and fruits and nonsalted nuts are a good source of nutrition. 

Water- should be stored in air-tight containers 

and replaced about every six months. Store at 

least three gallons of water per person to be 

preP.ared for a 72-hour period. Water can be 

punfied by boiling for 5 to 10 minutes or by 

adding 10 drops of household bleach per gallon 

of water and letting it stand for 30 minutes. A 

slight taste or smell of chlorine indicates it is 

good to drink. 

Special Items. Have at least a week's supply of 

medications and special foods needed for 

infants or those on limited diets. 

Tools. Pipe wrench and crescent i.vrench - for 

turning off gas and water mains. 

KNOW HOW TO TURN OFF GAS 

Teach responsible members of your family 

how to turn off electricity, gas and water at main 

switch and valves. Western Kentucky Gas Co. 

advises that you not turn off your gas at the 

main unless you know there is a leak. You can 

practice turning off the gas by turning the valve 

slightly, but do not shut off gas unless an 

emergency exists. If gas is ever turned off, all 

pilot lights must be relit quickly. 

Label water shut-off valve, found where water 

enters the house, and the main shutoff valve, 

found with meter in a concrete box in the 

sidewalk. 

SAFE SPOTS; DANGER SPOTS 

It's important to know where you should go 

for protection when your house starts to shake. 

In a quake, you will have only seconds to react, 

and you should know what to do without having 

to stop and think about lt. An earthquake drill 

will help you remember what to do. 

Each family member should know safe spots 

in each room. There will not be time to run to a 

spot in another room, and it may be dangerous. 

Safe spots: The best places to be are under 

supported archways, against inside walls, and 

under heavy pieces of furniture like a desk or 

sturdy table. Doorways are safe spots as long 

as there are no doors to swing closed on your 

hands. And find a place where you can hold on 

tightly; a severe shake can make it hard to hold 

on after a while. 

Danger spots: Stay away from windows, 

hanging objects, mirrors, fireplaces and tall, 

unsecured furniture. 

. Reinforce this knowledge by physically 

placing yourself in the sale locations. This is an 

especially important step for children . 

Sometime after this exercise, hold a surprise 

drill. This helps children remember what to do. 

KNOW HOW TO TURN OFF 

YOUR PROPANE GAS 

SHUT-OFF 

VALVE 

IN CASE OF EMERGENCY 

:-

4 TRI·STATE PROPANE, INC. 

-"'v• 4710 Clarks River Road, Paducah, Ky. '.' Phonel502)898·7387 

O&.lnW 
APPENDIX E-PREP AREDNESS LITERATURE 243 

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 1990 PAGES 

GETIING READY FOR AN EARTHQUAKE 

Look over your home 

for earthquake hazards 

Loose water heater 

could become your 

enemy in a quake The 1989 San Francisco earthquake showed that 

damaged gas hot water heaters were the leading 

cause of fir~s after the quake. The heaters just 

broke loose from their pipes, and the gas escaped 

and exploded, touched off by the pilot light or a 

spark. A hot water heater can be secured for a few 

dollars, and even 'unhandy' people can do it . 

themselves. 

Fit filler 

material that 

won't burn, 

such as 

gypsum board 

or tightly 

packed roll 

insulation, 

between the 

tank and the 

wall behind it 

to prevent 

motion. 

Have a plumber replace a ri~id gas line with a flexible 

line like those used on gas k1tchen ranges. 

• Recommended 

drinking water is 

1/2 gallon per 

day or 7 gallons 

per week. 

SOME POSSIBLE HAZARDS 

Tall heavy furniture which could topple, 

·such as bookcases, china cabinets, 'or modular wall units. Secure them to a stud 

in the wall with an 'L' bracket. In most cases it can be on top of the cabinet, out 

of sight and causing minimal damage. 

Antique furniture may be secured with 

less damage by a bolt through the back 

and into a stud. ' 

Hot water heaters which can be pulled 

away from pipes and rupture. The ' 

California earthquake in 1989 showed 

that gas hot water heaters that broke 

loose from their pipes were the major cause of fires alter the quake. Hot water 

heaters can be secured to a wall for as little as $5 If you do it yourself. 

Appliances which could move enough to 

rupture gas or electrical line~ . 

Hanging plants In heavy pots that could 

swing free of hooks. Substitute closed 

hooks, and repot plants In plastic rather 

than h.eavy clay pots. 

Magnetic latches on kitchen or other 

cabinets which will not h.old the door closed during shaking. 

Breakables or heavy objects that are kept on high or open shelves. 

A. masonry chimney that could crumble 

and fall through. an unsupported roof. 

A heavy picture, bookshelf or other "object over your bed that could fall on yqu. 

Flammable liquids, like painting or cleaning products, that would be safer In a garage or outside shed. 

Glass bottles In a medicine cabinet that could fall out and break In the sin~ 

Replace th.em with plastic bottles. 

Free 

Delivery 

Mountain Valley Has G<Jod 

Things Bottled For You! 

443-9625 75.3-0819 1:-800-448-0221 

7.6 - the worst likely quake 

An earthquake has only one Richter Scale magnitude, 

but the dama11e it can cause depends on several 

factors, like d1stance from the epicenter and type of soil. 

To show how much damage a quake might cause, 

exP.erts use the Modified Mercalli Scale, which takes 

soli and other factors into consideration. Because a 7.6 Is the 'maximum credible quake' for the New Madrid 

area, a Mercalll map has been prepared for one. The 

map for a quake we're most likely to have- a 6.0 to 6.5 -would affect a much smaller area. If an earthquake 

measuring 7.6 on the Richter Scale were to occur, we 

could expect damage as shown below. This is based on 

a quake centered in the Caruthersville, Mo.-

Blytheville, Ark. area, the most probable earthquake 

'source zone.' A 

QSTRONOo Trees sway, suSpended objects swing, 

L:,J loose objects overturn or fall. This area extends far beyond this map- west into Kansas, south into Georgia, east into Sovth Carolina and Pennsylvania, and north into Michigan. 

0 VIRY STRONG: Walls crack and plaster falls. This -

area includes all but the easternmost parts of Kentucky 

and Tennessee:· ; 

lilliTl DUTRUCTIVI.• Masonrt cracks, chimneys fall, 

U'1ill poorly built bulld1ngs dam, aged. 

llll\lil RUINOUS• Somo houses collapse where tho ground 

U'1ill begins to crack, pipes break open • 

• DISASTROUS• Ground cracks badly, many buildings 

destroyed, railway lines bent, landslides on stoep 

slopss. This area Is the New Madrid Fault Zone. 
244 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EAR1HQUAKE 

PAGE6 

Some weird 

things from 

181·1 quake 

Movies and TV documentaries report stories 

about animals behaving resUessly before an earthquake, birds flying away or sudden, eerie 

silences just before the big shake. 

But people who survived the New Mardid 

Earthquake of 1811-12 reported some strange things, too: . • Darlmess -Several people said it fell totally dark during the daylight shocks (the 

earthquake was actually several severe shocks over several weeks, with the first one Dec. 16, 1811), and a similar "awful darkness of the 

atmosphere" accompanied a major shock at 4 

p.m.· Feb. 7,1812, and a "dense black cloud of 

vapor overshadowed the land." At 

Herculaneum, Mo., on the Mississippi below St. · Louis, the air "was filled with smoke or fog so that a boat could not be seen 20 paces, and 

houses were so shrouded as not to be visible 50 

feet. The air did not clear until ihe middle of 

the day." A writer from New Madrid said "at 

the time of the shock the air was clear, but in 

five minutes it became very dark" and six 

shocks occurred. • Odors aud vapors- Nearly every witness 

reported "sulphurous or otherwise obnoxious 

odors and vapors,". that filled the air for hours, 

making it bard to breathe and contaminating water even 150 miles away. At Jeffersonville, Ind., "warmth and smokiness were noted for 

several days after the shock~' 

• Stran&e li2bts - "There issued no burning flames, 6ut flashes such as would result from an explosion of gas, or from passing of 

electricity from cloud to cloud," one witness 

said years later. At st. Louis, "gleams and 

flashes of light ... generally ascending from the 

earth." At Bardstown, "frequent lights during 

the commotion." At Knoxville, "two flashes of 

light very much like distant lightning." In 

North Carolina, ''three large, extraordinary 

fires in the air ... their continuance was several 

hours, their size as large as a house on fire." 

Nothing, however, was reported from New 

Madrid itself. • Noises - Witness compared the solind to steam escaping from a boiler, distant thunder, 

roaring, wind in the trees and explosions. One 

colorful description comes from Tennessee: "When the shocks came, the stones of the 

surface of the earth were agitated by a tremulous motion like eggs in a frying pan, · altogether making a noise similar to that of the 

wheels of a wagon in a pebbly road." 

In Louisville and Savannah, Ga., the nuise was compared to a carriage going by on the street. Rumbling was heard in Washington, D.C. and Richmond, Va. In Charleston, S;C., "rumbling like distant thunder which increased 

in violence of sound just before the shock was felt." 

Experts can explain the lights as unusual 

winter thunderstorms or Northern Lights, the 

odors as the escape of gas from decaying · underground material, and the darkness as dust or condensation froril warm underground 

streams in the cold winter air, but to the 

frightened observers, it must have seemed like. a vision of hell. · 

-Accounts from "The New Madrid 

Earthquake, a Scientific Factual Field 

Account" publ.i3bed in 1912. 

SATURDAY. NOVEMBER 3. 1990 

DURING AN EARTHQUAKE 

Ride out an earthquake 

where ever you may· be 

WHAT A BIG QUAKE FEELS LIKE 

During a major earthquake, you may experience a shaking that starts out to be gentle and within a second or two grows violent and knocks you off 

your feet. Or you may be jarred first by a violent 

Jolt- as though your house has been hit by a truck. A second or two later you'll feel the shaking. In either case, you'll find it very difficult if not 

impossible to move from one room to another. The 

shaking typically lasts from 20 to 60 seconds. 

WHAT TO DO WHEN IT HITS 

Remember, there will be no wamlng. 

The experts agree on cine thing: Where ever you 

are, stay there. Don't try to run somewhere else. 

AT HOMI OR OPPICI 

If you are Indoors, stay there. Get under a desk or table or stand in a doorway (if there is not a door 

to swing against you) or corner like yo1,1 practiced 

In your drills. And hang on tightly; trying to keep 

your balance for up to 60 seconds while . everything Is shak1ng can be very tiring, so find a place where there is something to hold onto. Remember, stay clear of windows, bookcases, china cabinets, mirrors, and fireplaces ·until the 

shaking stops. If you're under an office desk, watch out for equipment like computer terminals or typewriters that could shake off and fall on you. 

In halls, stairways or other areas where no cover is available, move to the interior wall. Turn away 

from windows, kneel alongside the wall, bend your 

head down and cover your head with your hands 

behind your neck. 

If you hap~en to be In the kitchen, tum off a gas 

stove at the first sign of shaking and quickly take cover under a counter or table, or in a doorway if 

there's no door to swing and hurt you. 

IN A CAR 

If you are In your car, pull to the side of the road 

and stop. Don~ stop on a bridge or overpass. Do 

not park under overpasses or power lines. Stay in 

your car until the earthquake Is over; a car Is a very safe place to be, although It may bounce 

severely. If the earthquake h~s been severe, do 

not attempt to cross bridges or overpasses even If 

they look safe from the road. If you have to leave 

your car, leave a note if you can, giving your name 

A crumbled house after the Lorna Prieta quake in San 

Francisco in 1989. 

and address and where you intend to walk. 

OUTDOORS 

If you are outside, get Into the open away from 

buildings, trees, walls and power lines. Many older 

buildings will not stand up to an earthquake very 

well. If they do not collapse, they will shower loose 

bricks and pieces of heavy decorative moulding 

down on the streets. · 

AT 1'HI MALL 

If in a crowded public place !ike the mall, do not 

rush for the doorway since other people are going 

to have the same idea. You could be hurt in the 

rush. Move away from display shelves containing 

objects that may fall. 

IN A HIGHRISI 

If in a highrise building, get under a desk, stay 

away from windows and outside walls. Tall 

buildings shake like whips or radio antennas - there will be more motion at the top than at the 

bottom- but stay in the building on the same floor. Don't be surprised If the electricity goes out, or If 

elevator, fire alarm or sprinkler systems go on. Do 

not use elevators. · 

01'HIR PLA~IS 

In a factory, shut off machinery and get clear of it. 

Move away from overhead pipes or ducts that 

may fall, and heavy standing objects like air 

cylinders that could topple on you. Stay clear of 

windows. 

On the river or lakes, the water will at first Insulate 

you from shaking. But your boat may be thrown 

against a dock or.snag as the waves worsen. 

'in a laboratory, shut off gas valves and get under a sturdy table. Stay clear of shelves of glassware 

and be alert for dangerous chemicals that may . spill or heavy equipment that may slide off a table. 

In a library, move away from shelves where books 

may fall on you. 

Stop and think now about the places you go often, and spots there that would be safe in an earthquake. You won't have much time to think 

about them when it happens. 
APPENDIX E-PREPAREDNESS LITERATURE 245 

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 3. 1990 

The fault that 

underlies all 

our problems 

Little Prairie, Mo., isn't on any map today. It • sank into the Mississippi during the greatest cataclysm in North America's recorded historythe New Madrid Earthquake. Records disagree as to whether it was during the first, second or 1Oth severe quake that h,it on Dec.16, 1811, butthecommunityvanished without a trace. The 100 or so residents, shaken out of their 

beds when the first quake hit at 2 a.m., waded 

snake-infested swa,!11PS eight miles to the nearest 

dry land. When they reached the nearest 

community, New Madrid, 23 miles to the north, 

they found it also in ruins and its shivering residents camped outdoors. The fearful quakes continued off and on through Christmas and well into the new year. During one, the heaving land made the 

Mississippi flow backward. On Feb. 7, 1812, the 

greatest shock hit- estimated today at 8.8 on the. Richter Scale- causing New Madrid itself to sink 

15 to 20 feet. When the spring floods came, the 

town was swept away. It was not the first big New Madrid Earthquake nor the last- others were recorded in ·1775, 

1792, 1843 and 1895- but geologic evidence 

indicates there had not been as bad a quake for at 

least 200 years· before 1811. · The fault was the New Madrid Fault, a system of shifting cracks deep in the earth. The fault line runs south from around Cairo, Ill., through Caruthersville (near the site of Little Prairie) 

follows Interstate 55 to Blytheville, Ark., and ends near Marked Tree, Ark. It is not as active nor as visible as the San Andreas Fault system In 

California, but when quakes do occur on it, the 

damage can cover up to 20 times the area because our soft soil, built up by the Ohio and 

Mississippi rivers, shakes in waves like Jell-0. 

Scientists say another Qreat Quake is 

unlikely, but they believe we are past due for a quake in the 6.5-magnitude range. Some estimate 

there is enough energy stored in the fault for a•7.6' q~ake. 

PAGE7 

AFTER AN EARTHQUAKE 

The first things to do 

when the shaking stops 

CHECK FOR INJURIES Clean up spilled medicines, bleaches, gasoline 

and other flammable. liquids. 

If anyone has stopped breathing, give mouthto-mouth resuscitation. Stop any bleeding Injury by applyins,J direct pressure to tl:te wou~;~d . 

Do not move senously injured people'unless 

they. are in Immediate danger of further Injury. Cover injured persons with blankets· to keep 

them warm. 

Check to see that sewage lines are lritact 

before using the toilet. Plug bathtub and sink 

drains to prevent sewage backup. 

Check fbod and water supplies. If water is cut 

off, use emergency water supplies found In 

toilet tanks (not the bowl), water heaters, 

Check gas, water and 

electrical lines and check 

apfliances for damage. Do no search for gas leaks with a lighted match. 

If you smell gas, hear a 

hissing sound near a gas 

line or see a broken line, 

shut off main valve. If the 

pilot light has gone out ori an appliance, first see If the gas 

is still on before trying to 

relight it. If there is no. gas at 

the pilot light, you may have a leak in the line. If you hear or smell gas, look for a leak 

in the line, especially at the 

joints. If you determme there 

1s no gas at all coming 

through the gas lines Into 

your home, shut off the 

valve at the meter until gas 

service Is restored. (If It Is 

restored later and you 

haven't tumed off the valve, 

gas will escape Into your 

home through the pilot 

lights.) Do not switch on the 

gas or electricity again until 

the power company has first 

checked your home. 

Turn on your batterypowered radio (or car radio) 

to AM 570 for damage 

reports and information. 

CHECK FOR DAMAGE 

If possible, put out small 

fires; If not, leave your home 

Immediately ~nd wam your 

neighbors. 

,.------::----::-----., melted Ice cubes. 

A:quickwayto 

ten your family· 

1 

•• yoy:re ~ing OK' 

. · 1( there's an earthqual«! oi . other dtsaster, family member:s·ln other par)s of tl')e, 

col\ntry ¥fl!l ~a!lt to kn~w~ how•yo4 .are., ln .. Callforma, . where . earthquakes ·are · COf!lmon;; ef!lergehcy service 

· offic:i.llls: s~,Jggest eac;~ . family, have one. designated person . to•cal). Here's how it.works: 

1

Let's say y0u.have family 

members in four states. ·• • :You decide• ahead of time .. , 

that' after an earthquake (or 

any·disaster)·YOI.! will call one . of! those pe9ple .to tell them , : how yqu are. Tl)e_ rest of your < ··· family w.l1J :call that person, or l~e versa, to spread the 

word. · ··Jn· the flrst-'hours·after·a . 

q~ake: If the pi)'QnEniystem hf. ' wor.klng at all, you may be 

. lucky -to get one. call thrpugh. _- Try ere wllJ· be · e.normous. 

" demands on . the, phone, 

Check the buildi_n(l for cracks 

and damage; particularly the 

chimneys or masonry walls. 

Do not use fireplaces unless 

the chimney is undamaged 

and without cracks. 

Check closets and cupboards. 

Open doors cautiously. · 

Beware of objects tumbling off 

shelves. 

Use charcoal broilers for 

emergency cooking, only out 

of doors. 

Do not use your vehicle unless 

there is an emergency. Do not 

go sightseeing through badly 

damaged areas. You will only 

hamper the relief effort. If you were to hit a brick and have a flat tire, you would be In the 

way of emergency vehicles. 

Be aware that there may be 

looting In some places, and it can be dangerous for 

passersby. 

Be willing to offer your 

assistance to emergency 

workers if you are physically · system :when it' ls•- back in able. 

working order: Thls "'deslgpated person '.s~tu ,• Y{iiL · Be prepared for aftershocks. 

make It easier on yqU•·and These are usually smaller than . yow family and. take ~ome of., • the main quake but some may 

thl! . load off ;;,the : phone:- be large enough to do 

system . .You •may have to additional damage to ... rely-'on:a ham •radio·operator' ~ ·structures weakened during (Seepagli15);t,\i/l~h' .'c\r>c cl• · the main shock. f .:'· :·> :~ .. ~\ ;~-> :fl~: sr> ~·/' ,.;-.. ~), , - ' ··· Finally; when you are able, 

Do not use electrical switches orappllances If 

gas leaks are suspected because sparks can Ignite gas from broken lines. 

cont,act a designated family member in another 

city to let them know how.you are. You may 

have to seek out a ham radio operator if the 

phones are out. 

Switch off electrical power If there Is damage to 

your house electrical wiring. If you smell the 

tell-tale odor or electricity or burned wiring, shut 

off your electricity. If vou have a breaker box, 

switch off the smaller switches; then pull the 

main breaker If you want. 

Do not touch fallen power lines or br9ken 

appliances. If extremely high voltage lines are nearby, you could be electrocuted just by being 

too close to them. Stay at least 1 0 fet:~t away 

from them. 

IF YOU MUST EVACUATE YOUR HOME 

Post a message In clear view where you can be found. Ust reunion points In case of 

separation. Such pplnts may be neighbors, 

friends, relatives, school or community center. 

Take with you: a. Medicines and first aid kit 

b. Flashlight, radio and batteries c. Important papers and cash 

d. Food, sleeping bags/blankets and extra 

clothes. 
246 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO. EARTIIQUAKE 

PAGES 

King credits Browning 

for quake readiness BY BILL BARTL£MAN SUN STAFF WRITER 

Kent King believes there is a silver 

lining in !ben BroWning's projection that a big earthqwike will hit the area next month. 

The benefit, he said, is that people are taking the threat seriously and making 

preparations. 

"The Dec. 3 projec- tion was wonderful 

because usually it 

takes a major disas- ter to prepare people," said King, 

director of Disaster 

and Emergency Serv· ices for McCracken · County. "We just don't experience 

enough moderate -earthQuakes here, like 

they do in California, to keep people prepared. "If people are prepared for an earthquake, they are going to be prepared for 

any kind of a natural disaster or emer· gency." 

King noted the region has annual threats 

of tornadoes, floods and snowstorms for 

which people rarely prepare. 

"If there is a report in the morning that a major snowstorm is possible, there is a run on the grocery in the afternoon," King said. 

Preparation involves storing food, water, 

emergency supplies, planning neighbor· 

hood rescue · efforts, coordinating COIIllllU· 

nications with family members and taking first aid classes. 

If a big earthquake hits, next month or five years from now, people should be 

prepared to . survive on their own for at least two days, King said. 

Emergency services agencies will work 

under the direction of DES from its 

COIIlllland center on Coleman Road. Widespread destruction could mean inability to 

Reprinted by permission 

respond to calls for help. 

"It's going to take·a while before (emer· 

gency) people can get through the debris 

in the streets," King said. 

"Since most of western Kentucky ci>uld 

be affected, we'll probably have to rely on help from eastern Kentucky, which may 

have to be airllfted in, since much of this area is accessible 

only by bridges." 

King said it is likely 

residents would be 

without electricity, 

water, gas or phone service. 

King encourages 

neighborhood resi· 

dents to unite and 

prepare to help each 

other. He said neighbors helping neigh· 

bors would relieve 

emergency personnel 

for other work. 

King and other officials say that if an earthquake hits, the first priority will be to rescue people. For example, saving lives 

would have a higher priority for firefight- ers than putting out fires. 

Rescue efforts also would be prioritized. King and others say rescuing 100 students 

trapped in a school would have priority over rescuing five people trapped in 

another building. 

Since it is likely telephone service would 

be interrupted, officials will rely on radio 

collllllunications to report damage and 

dispatch emergency workers. 

Amateur radio operators would play a key role in reporting damage and injuries in various neighborhoods. 

If phone service is not interrupted, 

people not facing emergencies should not Oiaf emergency 911 or any other agency. 

A major emergency would be a lifethreatening· injury or situation. It would 

have priority over someone who might 

have minor injuries or a few broken bones. 

SAlURDAY. NOVEMBER 3. 1990 

Iii WE 

ARE 

PREPARED 

At Peoples First National Bank, we recognize that emergencies 

can occur at any time. To protect the interests of our customers, 

we have' developed an extensive emergency disaster plan. 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE PLAN INCLUDE: 

PHYSICAL LOCATIONS 

Our management will work around-the·clockto provide the best 

uninterrupted service available. 

CASH 

Adequate for needs in case of emergency. 

BALANCING INFORMATION 

Transferred daily through Computer Services Inc. to alternate 

sites (Elizabethtown, Lexington) and all vital records are stored 

in underground vaults in Flora, Mississippi. 

SAFE DEPOSIT BOXES 

Secured within steel reinforced concrete vaults. 

TRUST AND STOCK RECORDS 

Records updated by Sungard Trust Systems, Charlotte, North 

Carolina. 

If you have further questions regarding the bank's emergency 

disaster plan, contact ·the Disaster Recovery Coordinator of 

Peopl11s First National Bank and Trust Company . 

• Peoples First National Bank and Trust 

Paducah, KY. 42001 

(502) 441-1200 

·A subsidiary of Peoples First Corporation 

- Member F[)l() . 
APPENDIX F 

FAULT ZONE HUMOR 

Cartoons relating to 

Browning's prediction 

Arkansas 

Democrat 

Reprinted by permission of the 

Arkansas Democrat-Gazette 

Memphis 

Commercial 

Appeal 

Reprinted by permiaslon 

of the Commercill Appeal 

Fort Wayne (Ind.) 

Journal-Gazette 

Reprinted by permission 

of Dan Lynch 

~e'Re COMINC:r To You LIVe fRoM 

11\e Cetne'R OF THe NeW MAOR\t> 

fAULT :ZoNe ~HeRe Ju~T 

'l'e~Te.RDAY A DeVA'aTAl\NGr 1--r------, 

DID NoT occ.ut? .. ./._1111111'1 .. -llllfl! 
248 RESPONSES TO PREDICTION OF A 1990 NEW MADRID, MO, EARTHQUAKE 

Riverfront Times 

(St. Louis) 

Reprinted by permission 

· SAN ANPREAS 

FAUL.T ~ ., 

MEPrAS FAULT 

Arkansas Gazette 

(Little Rock) 

Reprinted by permission of the 

Arkansas Democrat-Gazette 

St. Louis 

Post-Dispatch 

Reprinted by permission 

Albuquerque Journal Reprinted with special permission 

of John Trevor and NAS, Inc. 

News Flash: New Madrid Fault Claims One Victim 

* U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1993-774-049/66056