Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Jessica Spaccio (jlr98@cornell.edu)

Northeast Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|March 2018

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Northeast Region

March 2018

National - Significant Events for December 2017–February 2018

Precipitation and Temperature Anomalies 

Regional - Climate Overview for December 2017–February 2018

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

December 1, 2017–February 28, 2018

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

December 1, 2017–February 28, 2018

January

Highlights for the Northeast

A storm from December 9 to 10 dropped up to 11 inches 

of snow on the region. While impacts were limited 

to flight delays and slick roads, it provided the first 

measurable snow and first inch of snow for more than a 

dozen major climate sites. 

December had been mild until the last week, when a 

disturbance brought a mix of rain and snow showers 

and was followed by a bitter cold snap. In New York and 

New England there were reports of snow falling at up to 

3-5 inches per hour and thundersnow. Erie, PA had large 

amounts of lake-effect snow. Records were broken for 

lowest minimum and maximum temperatures. 

A nor'easter impacted the region on January 3-5. See 

impacts section for details. A winter storm on February 

7 brought up to 12 inches of snow to parts of the 

region while other areas received up to 0.5 inches of 

ice accumulation. A mid-February storm brought the 

first significant snow to some areas since the January 

nor'easter. Among the highest snow totals was 10.5 

inches in Glen Gardner, NJ. On the heals of the storm 

was record-breaking warmth. February 20-21 saw 

temperatures soar into the low 60s to low 80s, which 

was 20°F to 40°F warmer than normal. Records were 

broken not only for those days, but also for any February 

day. Snow melt and rain caused flooding in parts of the 

region, which led to closed roads, water rescues, flooded 

homes, and evacuations.

The U.S. Drought Monitor from December 5

showed 1% of the Northeast in a moderate 

drought and 14% as abnormally dry. Abnormally 

dry and moderate drought expanded through 

December and January. A small area of severe 

drought was introduced in Maryland. The 

January 30 Drought Monitor showed 1% of the 

region in a severe drought, 5% in a moderate 

drought and 21% as abnormally dry. A wet 

February allowed conditions to improve. The 

February 27 Drought Monitor showed less than 

1% of the region in a moderate drought and 

2% as abnormally dry. NIDIS, NOAA, and the 

NRCC are partnering to launch a Drought Early 

Warning System (DEWS) in the Northeast. 

The Northeast received 110% of normal 

precipitation during winter. The Northeast 

had 68% of normal precipitation in December. 

All twelve states received below-normal 

precipitation, with six states ranking this 

December among their 20 driest. The 

Northeast had 113% of normal precipitation 

in January. Five states were drier than normal, 

while seven states were wetter than normal. 

Precipitation ranged from 74% of normal 

in Maryland to 156% of normal in Maine. 

February precipitation was 159% of normal, 

making it the seventh wettest on record. 

All twelve states had a wetter-than-normal 

February and Pennsylvania had its wettest on 

record.

At 0.4°F above normal, average winter

temperatures in the Northeast were close to 

normal. The Northeast had a cold December 

at 3.2°F below normal. All twelve states were 

colder than normal. January was another 

cool month for the Northeast at 1.5°F below 

normal. Nine of the twelve states were colder 

than normal. February was 5.9°F above 

normal, making it the third warmest February 

on record for the Northeast. Connecticut, 

Massachusetts, and Rhode Island had their 

warmest February on record. There were 20 

major climate sites in the Northeast that set or 

tied their warmest temperatures ever recorded 

during the month of February. 

Drought in the Northeast

Normals based on 1981–2010

Selected U.S. Significant Climate Anomalies and Events

 for February and Winter 2018

The contiguous U.S. had an average winter temperature of 34.0°F, 1.7°F above the 20th century 

average. According to NOAA, "Much of the East Coast and West had a warmer-than-average 

winter." December's average temperature of 34.8°F was 2.1°F above average, and January's average 

temperature of 32.2°F was 2.1°F above average. February's average temperature of 35.4°F was 

1.6°F above average. Globally, it was the third warmest December on record (tied with 2016) and 

the third warmest January. During winter, the contiguous U.S. received 6.26 inches of precipitation, 

0.53 inch below average. December precipitation totaled 1.55 inches, 0.80 inch below average, 

and January precipitation totaled 1.81 inches, 0.50 inch above average. The U.S. had its 6th wettest 

February with 2.84 inches of precipitation, 0.71 inch above average. 

December

U.S. Drought Monitor

March 15, 2018
Regional - Impacts and Updates for December 2017 - February 2018

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Jessica Spaccio (jlr98@cornell.edu)

Northeast Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|March 2018 

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Spring 2018 Northeast Region Partners

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncei.noaa.gov

National Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Offices, Atlantic

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Office for Coastal Management

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov

NOAA Research, Climate Program Office and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.research.noaa.gov

NOAA National Sea Grant Office

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantic and Great Lakes

Regional Collaboration Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

National Integrated Drought Information System

www.drought.gov

Consortium on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperative Institute for North Atlantic Research

www.cinar.org

Northeast Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

Mid-Atlantic RISA

www.midatlanticrisa.org

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature and 

Precipitation

A

Normal April–June 

average temperatures 

range from the upper 

40s in northern New 

England to the low to 

mid 60s in Delaware 

and parts of Maryland 

and West Virginia. 

For April–June 2018, 

NOAA's Climate 

Prediction Center

(CPC) is calling for an 

increased chance of abovenormal temperatures (left 

map). 

The precipitation outlook 

(bottom map) calls for increased chances of 

above-normal precipitation for a majority of the 

region. Normal April–June precipitation ranges 

from less than 10 inches in portions of central 

and northern New York to more than 14 inches 

in the higher elevations in 

From late December through early January there was a bitter cold snap with dangerously cold 

wind chills. Records were broken for lowest minimum and maximum temperatures. At 17 sites, 

the period ranked among the 10 longest streaks of days below 32, up to 14 consecutive days. 

Bridgeport, CT and Huntington, WV set or tied their record for longest streak. Later in January, the 

region experienced alternating periods of colder-than-normal and seasonable or warmer-thannormal temperatures. Experts warn that deer ticks have survived the cold snaps. Rainfall, snowmelt, 

and ice jams contributed to flooding on several waterways, with reports of closed roads, flooded 

homes and buildings, and some evacuations and water rescues.

A nor'easter rapidly intensified off the East Coast January 3-5 dropping up to 24 inches of snow. 

The storm produced snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour, thundersnow, and power outages. 

Strong winds of up to 76 mph produced blizzard conditions in parts of New England, New York, 

and New Jersey. More than 5,000 flights were cancelled nationwide, mostly in the Northeast. The 

storm contributed to high water levels and significant flooding along the New 

England coast. Boston, MA had its highest tide on record.

On February 15 there was a confirmed EF1 tornado in Uniontown, PA, with 

gusts up to 105 mph. This was the first recorded February tornado in the 

Pittsburgh area since 1950 when records began. This marks the third year in a 

row Pennsylvania has had a February tornado. Until 2016, there had only been 

one February tornado on record for the state of Pennsylvania.

Severe Weather

December snowfall ranged from 10 inches below normal to more than 40 inches above normal. At 

the end of the month Erie, PA received massive amounts of snow in just two days. Their December 

and seasonal snowfall totals were near-record breaking. The region's January snowfall ranged from 

more than 20 inches below normal, in part of New York, to over 5 inches above normal. In February, 

snowfall ranged from 6 inches below normal to 6 inches above normal, with the highest totals in 

New York and New England. For winter, snowfall ranged widely from 2 feet below normal to 2 feet 

above normal, with most of the snow east of the Great Lakes and in New England.

Winter Summary

EC 33

40

A

La Niña

A: Above-normal

B: Below- normal

EC: Equal chances of 

above-, near, or belownormal 

#: Probability of aboveor below-normal

Above: Winter (December-February) snowfall 

departure from normal in inches. 

Below: Ice jam in Warrensburg, NY on January 24. 

Credit: Vince Spadaro. 

50

La Niña conditions were present in the 

equatorial Pacific Ocean from mid-December 

through February. According to NOAA’s Climate 

Prediction Center, a transition from La Niña to 

ENSO-neutral is most likely (55%) during spring.

A

Spring Flood Potential

Spring flood potential is low for most of the 

region with some minor flooding likely for parts 

of northern New Jersey. Three early-March 

coastal storms have led to generally near to 

above-normal river flows and soil moisture. 

Dry conditions carrying over from the 

summer and fall of 2017 have created an 

increased capacity for winter melt and spring 

rain, reducing the potential for flooding. Very 

heavy rain can cause flooding at any time 

of the year, even in areas experiencing dry 

conditions or that have little 

to no snow on the ground. 

Uniontown, PA Tornado Damage Credit: NWS Pittsburgh 

Early-Mar CPC/IRI Official Probabilistic ENSO Forecasts

Spring Flood Potential Outlook