OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS                       February 23, 1996
             Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the
Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC
20005-4788.  AES-9.  Please note that this release contains only the text of
OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--tables and graphics are not included.
 
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FISCAL 1996 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST RISES TO $60 BILLION
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is revised
upward $2 billion to a record $60 billion as prospects for wheat,
corn, and cotton exports have further improved.  Tight global
supplies and strong foreign demand continue to push wheat, corn,
and soybean prices upward.  The major bulk commodity export
volume forecast has been increased 5.8 million tons.  Total
export volume is forecast at 161.6 million tons.
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural imports is raised
$500 million to $29.5 billion.  Higher expected imports of
tobacco and oilseed products account for the increase.
 
The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is forecast at a record $30.5
billion in fiscal 1996, $1.5 billion above the November forecast. 
This forecast surpasses the previous record of $26.6 billion set
in fiscal 1981.
 
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released
February 21, 1996.
 
Contents
 
Fiscal 1996 Agricultural Export Forecast Rises to $60 Billion
Commodity Highlights
Economic Outlook
Regional Highlights
U.S. Agricultural Export Programs
U.S. Agricultural Imports
 
Tables
 
Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 1991-96
Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1994-96
Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1994-96
Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by region, 1994-96
Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by commodity, 1994-96
Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports:  Volume by commodity, 1994-96
Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by region, 1994-96
 
Coordinator (ERS):
Joel Greene (202) 219-0816
 
Commercial Agriculture Division
Economic Research Service (ERS)
 
Coordinators (FAS):
 
Michael Dwyer (202) 720-3124
Ernest Carter (202) 720-2922
  Trade and Economic Analysis Division
  Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Washington, D.C. 20250
 
The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports are
based on information provided by the following analysts in the
Commercial Agriculture Division of the Economic Research Service
and in the Commodity Divisions of the Foreign Agricultural
Service.  All telephone numbers are area code 202.
 
ERS:  Thomas Capehart (Imports, 219-1262)
Jaime Castaneda (Oilseeds, 219-0826)
Ronald Gustafson (Beef, 219-0848)
Mildred Haley (Pork, 219-0833)
David Harvey (Poultry, 219-0839)
John Love (Horticultural products, 219-1268)
Stephen MacDonald (Cotton, 219-1179)
Mark Simone (Wheat, 219-0487)
Carolyn Whitton (Coarse grains and rice, 219-0825).
 
FAS:  Peter Burr (Tobacco, Cotton, and Seeds, 720-9497)
Alan Holz (Oilseeds, 720-0143)
Dee Linse (Export Programs, 720-9847)
Robert Knapp (Horticultural and Tropical Products, 720-6877)
Nancy Morrison (Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry, 720-8252)
Alan Riffkin (Grains and Feeds, 690-4198).
 
Regional information can be provided by the following analysts in
the Commercial Agriculture Division, ERS:  Chris Bolling (Brazil,
219-0668); Nancy Cochrane (Central and Eastern Europe, 219-0650);
Hunter Colby (China, 219-0669); Frederick Crook (Hong Kong,
219-0002)
John Dyck (Japan, 219-0698); Ruth Elleson (South Korea,
219-0681); Anwarul Hoque (South Asia, 219-0665); Sophia Wu Huang
(Taiwan, 219-0679); Elizabeth Jones (European Union, 219-0619);
Daniel Plunkett (Mexico, 219-0670); Sharon Sheffield (Former
Soviet Union, 219-0019); Jim Stout (Canada, 219-0678); Tina
Valdecanas (Southeast Asia, 501-6133).
 
The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports is published in
February, May, August, and November.  The next quarterly summary
is scheduled for release on May 30, 1996.  The report summary may
be accessed electronically.  For details, call (202) 219-0515.
 
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits
discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color,
national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political
beliefs, and marital or familial status.  (Not all prohibited
bases apply to all programs).  Persons with disabilities who
require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should
contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-2791. 
 
To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202)
720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD).  USDA is an equal
opportunity employer.
 
Commodity Highlights
 
The forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. wheat and flour is
increased 2.7 million tons and $800 million from USDA's November
forecast to 34.5 million tons valued at $6.7 billion.  The global
wheat market has further tightened in recent months, sending U.S.
export volume and prices higher than previously anticipated.  The
major factors are China's recent large purchases and the
continued strong pace of sales to other destinations.  The
European Union (EU-15) continues to restrict exports in response
to high internal prices.  The global stocks-to-use ratio for
wheat has fallen to 17.5 percent (the smallest figure in USDA's
database which begins in marketing year 1960/61), while by the
end of May 1996, U.S. wheat stocks are expected to fall to their
lowest level since marketing year 1973/74.
 
The forecast for U.S. coarse grain exports in fiscal 1996 is
raised 2.5 million tons and $800 million from November's forecast
to 58.7 million tons valued at $8.7 billion.  The export forecast
for corn is raised 2 million tons and $600 million to 53 million
tons valued at $7.8 billion.  Despite higher prices, global
demand for U.S. corn has strengthened further due to a downward
revision in Argentina's production estimate and larger than
expected purchases by a number of markets.  Corn prices will
remain strong with U.S. stocks expected to reach their lowest
since marketing year 1974/75.  U.S. sorghum export volume and
value are also revised upward.
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. rice exports remains unchanged
from the November forecast at 3.2 million tons valued at $1
billion.  Although U.S. prices for high-quality rice have risen
recently due to fairly tight U.S. and Thai stocks, current prices
should moderate because of an expected record second season crop
in Thailand and better harvests elsewhere in Asia.
 
The volume forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. oilseeds and
products is lowered 300,000 tons from November to 30.9 million
tons, but higher expected prices have boosted export value by
$100 million to $10 billion.  Downward revisions in U.S. soybean
meal and oil export volumes are accompanied by higher prices for
meal and stronger than expected soybean exports.  The soybean
forecast is raised to 22 million tons valued at $6.3 billion. 
Despite the somewhat lower global import demand for soybeans,
importers are building stocks in anticipation of lower South
American export supplies.  Downward revisions in U.S. soybean
production and global stocks are also boosting prices.  Higher
than expected prices for soybean meal due to the lower U.S.
soybean production estimate is curbing foreign demand for U.S.
meal.  U.S. soybean oil export volume is lowered to 800,000 tons.
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. cotton exports is 1.7 million
tons valued at $2.7 billion.  The forecast is raised $200 million
since November, in part because of a 100,000-ton increase in
volume.  Larger exports are expected to China and, to a lesser
extent, Mexico.
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. exports of unmanufactured
tobacco is up slightly from November at $1.4 billion.  Exports
are nearly 30 percent ahead of a year ago, and shipments to the
EU-15 and East Asia, the traditional markets for U.S.
unmanufactured tobacco, are stronger than earlier anticipated. 
The forecast for U.S. exports of planting seeds remains unchanged
at $700 million.
 
The forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. livestock, dairy,
and poultry products remains unchanged at a record $12.1 billion. 
The forecast for U.S. beef, pork, and red variety meat is lowered
$100 million to $4.7 billion, and hides and skins remain
unchanged at $1.9 billion.  The forecast for U.S. poultry and
product exports is unchanged at $2.4 billion, despite a
100,000-ton increase in poultry meat shipments to 2.2 million
tons.  The
China/Hong Kong market for U.S. poultry meat is expected to
remain strong, as is demand for poultry meat in Russia.  The
export forecast for dairy products remains unchanged at $900
million.
 
The forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. horticultural
products is lowered $300 million from the November forecast. A
downward revision in fresh and processed vegetable exports and a
smaller decrease in fresh and processed fruit exports account for
most of the change.  These revisions are based on a greater than
previously expected slowdown in fruit and vegetable exports to
Mexico, and weaker than anticipated vegetable exports to Canada
and Japan.  The fiscal 1996 forecasts for U.S. vegetable and
fruit exports are now $2.6 billion and $3.5 billion,
respectively.  The forecast for tree nut exports remains
unchanged at $1.2 billion.  The value of U.S. horticultural
exports is still expected to rise nearly $900 million to a record
$10 billion.  Continued market liberalization, rising incomes, a
growing demand for healthful foods, and on-going market promotion
activities in Japan and other major Asian markets continue to
drive U.S. exports higher.
 
Economic Outlook
 
World real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow 2.7
percent in 1996, slightly lower than expected in November, but
unchanged from 1995.  Developed country growth is expected to
slow to 2.1 percent because of slower growth in the United
States, Canada, and the EU-15.  Growth in Asia, excluding Japan,
is projected at about 6.7 percent.  Japan is expected to grow at
1.6 percent, compared with less than 1 percent in 1995.  Growth
prospects in Mexico are lower than earlier anticipated, but still
positive at less than 1 percent.
 
Regional Highlights
 
U.S. agricultural exports are projected to rise to most major
markets in fiscal 1996, with the strongest growth anticipated to
countries in Asia.  Smaller gains are expected to Canada, the
EU-15, and Latin America.  Central and Eastern Europe is the one
region likely to show no gain for U.S. exports.
 
U.S. exports to Japan are revised upwards to $11.7 billion, 11
percent higher than in fiscal 1995.  Shipments of wheat, corn,
and soybeans are not expected to increase, but substantially
higher prices will boost value.  Export gains are expected for
red meats, but vegetables are likely to slow.
 
Exports to China, South Korea, and Taiwan are revised upwards
because of higher expected wheat, corn, and soybean prices. 
South Korea will surpass Mexico as the fourth largest market for
U.S. farm commodities in fiscal 1996 with purchases of $4.6
billion.  South Korea will be a primary market for U.S. red meats
and cattle hides.  Exports to China are forecast to rise nearly
20 percent to $2.9 billion.  China is likely to increase its
purchases of wheat, but not of corn and cotton.
 
U.S. exports to the EU-15 are forecast at $9 billion, 7 percent
higher than 1995.  Higher soybean prices and horticulture gains
have boosted export value.  Exports to Canada are forecast at
$6.1 billion, up 5 percent from fiscal 1995.
Exports to the former Soviet Union are raised to $1.5 billion and
exports to Russia raised to $1.3 billion.  Prospects for bulk
exports remain low but shipments of poultry meats and pork
products remain strong.  So far in fiscal 1996, export growth to
Russia has been among the strongest of any large market.
 
U.S. exports to markets in Latin America are expected to rise
about 5 percent from 1995 to $8.5 billion.  Exports to Mexico are
expected at $3.8 billion, slightly higher than in fiscal 1995. 
Weaker economic prospects in 1996 continue to hamper sales of
high-value products to Mexico, but bulk sales remain relatively
strong.  Shipments of corn and soybeans are sustained through the
GSM-102 program, and as of February 1, 1996, corn and soybean
exports were ahead of last year. 
 
U.S. Agricultural Export Programs
 
U.S. Food Aid Programs
 
The Public Law 480 (P.L. 480) Food for Peace program uses
appropriated funds to provide U.S. agricultural assistance to
countries at different levels of economic development. 
 
As of February 1, $194 million has been allocated for the 1996
Title I program, and $46 million for the Food for Progress
program funded by Title I appropriations.  This funds total
commodity shipments of 872,600 metric tons.  Of this $240 million
in allocations, $210 million in Title I and Food for Progress
agreements have been signed with 19 countries.  Allocations
totaling $30 million have been announced for Angola, Croatia,
Moldava, and Poland.  Because USDA's authority for entering into
P.L. 480 agreements expired December 31, 1995, these agreements
cannot be signed until Congress provides new legislative
authority.
 
The limited availability of wheat for programming under the P.L.
480 program led the President to authorize the release of up to
1.5 million metric tons of wheat from the Food Security Wheat
Reserve.  This wheat will be used to provide, on a sale or
donation basis, emergency food assistance to developing countries
in fiscal 1996.
 
The Export Enhancement Program and Dairy Export Incentive
Programs
 
On February 2, 1996, USDA announced a 3-month continuation of the
interim Export Enhancement Program (EEP) and Dairy Export
Incentive Program (DEIP) allocations.  EEP bonuses will be
available to 71 countries for 6.2 million metric tons of wheat;
49 countries for 399,525 metric tons of wheat flour; 24 countries
for 650,000 metric tons of barley and malting barley; 33
countries for 112,675 metric tons of barley malt; 27 countries
for 120,100 metric tons of rice; 22 countries for 170,000 metric
tons of vegetable oils; 27 countries for 11,946 metric tons of
frozen poultry; and 7 countries for 6.2 million dozen eggs.  DEIP
bonuses will be available to 97 countries for 48,000 metric tons
of nonfat dry milk; 84 countries for 4,000 tons of whole milk
powder; 99 countries for 15,345 tons of butterfat; and 37
countries for 1,000 tons of cheese.
 
As of February 1, 1996, frozen poultry was the sole EEP product
sold in fiscal 1996.  Frozen poultry sales totaled 11,125 tons;
bonuses were $5.2 million.  DEIP sales for fiscal 1996, as of
February 1, totaled 10,126 tons of whole powdered milk, non-fat
dry milk, and a variety of cheeses, with bonuses of $3.1 million.
 
CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs
 
As of February 2, fiscal 1996 export credit guarantee program
(GSM-102 and GSM-103) allocations of $3.153 billion are similar
to those of fiscal 1995 for the same period.  However, fiscal
1996 sales of $1.556 billion as of February 2 are more than 40
percent higher than during the same period in fiscal 1995. 
Importers in Mexico are the chief purchasers under credit
guarantee programs.  Mexican buyers have used $657.7 million as
of February 2, almost all of the $700 million GSM-102 allocated
for fiscal 1996.
 
U.S. Agricultural Imports
 
Fiscal 1996 agricultural imports are forecast at $29.5 billion,
$500 million higher than the November forecast.  The upward
revision is due to increases in expected imports of oilseeds and
products and tobacco.
 
Total oilseed and products are forecast at $2 billion, up $300
million, due to expected increased volume and higher prices. 
Strong consumer demand, new products, and higher prices caused by
low stock-to-use ratios in the soybean complex boost the volume
from 3.1 million tons to 3.3 million tons.  Shipments of rapeseed
meal for feed and canola oil rose during October-November 1995
and were accompanied by higher prices.  Coconut oil volume
increased also.
 
Tobacco imports are forecast at $700 million, $200 million above
November.  Leaf tobacco imports are raised by 100,000 tons to
300,000 tons.  Rising leaf demand due to increasing U.S.
cigarette output and the replacement of the foreign content
restriction on U.S. manufactured cigarettes by a tariff rate
quota are behind the increased forecast.  Leaf tobacco imported
and then exported in manufactured form is not subject to the
tariff rate quota.   
 
The grain import forecast has been lowered by 1.8 million tons to
4.1 million tons due to reduced expectations for wheat, barley,
oat, and rice import quantities.  Value remains at $800 million
due to higher prices.  
 
The forecast for fresh and frozen vegetable imports has been
raised by 200,000 tons to 2.6 million tons, and value remains
unchanged at $3 billion.  Imports from Mexico have increased due
to the devalued peso and a drop in domestic Mexican demand. 
Cucumbers, eggplants, peppers, snap beans, squash, and tomatoes
showed gains over year-ago levels.  Because of higher fresh and
frozen vegetable forecast, the horticultural import forecast is
increased to 8.9 million tons.  
 
Coffee import volume is forecast at 1.1 million tons, 100,000
tons higher than the November forecast.  Continued lower prices
have increased import volume and roasters are expected to
increase stocks of green coffee beans when South American
production comes onto the market in late mid-year.  Coffee import
value is unchanged at $3 billion.
 
Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1991-1996
                         -- Year beginning October 1 --
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  :        :        :        :        :    Forecast 
Item     :  1991  :  1992  :  1993  :  1994  :  1995  :      1996
         :        :        :        :        :        :  Nov.  :   Feb.     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                      -- Billion dollars --
         :
Exports  :  37.5     42.3     42.5     43.5     54.1     58.0      60.0
         :
Imports  :  22.6     24.3     24.5     26.4     29.5     29.0      29.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
         :                              
Trade    :
 balance :  14.9     18.0     18.0     17.1     24.6     29.0      30.5
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         :                       -- Million tons --
Export   :
 volume  : 129.4    143.6    146.4    127.4    169.2    156.0     161.6
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This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the February 9, 1996, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
 
Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1994-96    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             :  October-November   :  Fiscal  :   Fiscal 1996
      Commodity              : 1994/95  : 1995/96  :   1995   :    Forecast
                             :          :          :          :   Nov. :  Feb.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             :              --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/          :  2.708      3.603     17.637      19.1    21.0
  Wheat & flour              :   .808      1.179      5.201       5.9     6.7
      Rice                   :   .225       .182      1.050       1.0     1.0
      Coarse grains 2/       :   .973      1.510      7.411       7.9     8.7
    Corn                     :   .838      1.395      6.619       7.2     7.8
  Feeds and fodders          :   .417       .443      2.511       2.8     3.0
                             :                                     
Oilseeds and products        :  1.692      1.727      9.119       9.9    10.0
  Soybeans                   :  1.040      1.122      5.274       6.1     6.3
  Soybean meal               :   .178       .176      1.079       1.3     1.3
  Soybean oil                :   .130       .079       .809        .5      .5
                             :                                     
Livestock products           :  1.325      1.465      7.808       8.8     8.8
  Beef, pork & variety meats :   .656       .786      4.044       4.8     4.7
  Hides & skins, incl. furs  :   .249       .269      1.719       1.9     1.9
Poultry & products           :   .379       .466      2.210       2.4     2.4
Dairy products               :   .125       .117       .812        .9      .9
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :   .230       .294      1.329       1.3     1.4
Cotton & linters             :   .362       .478      3.496       2.5     2.7
Seeds                        :   .115       .116       .680        .7      .7
Horticultural products       :  1.719      1.737      9.110      10.3    10.0
  Fruits & preparations      :   .559       .588      3.263       3.6     3.5
  Vegetables & preparations  :   .438       .393      2.538       2.9     2.6
  Tree nuts & preparations   :   .306       .342      1.108       1.2     1.2
Sugar, tropical, and other   :   .359       .354      1.940       2.1     2.1
                             :                                     
   Total 3/                  :  9.014     10.357     54.141      58.0    60.0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
 
Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1994-96          
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             :   October-November   :  Fiscal  : Fiscal 1996
      Commodity              :  1994/95  : 1995/96  :   1995   :   Forecast
                             :           :          :          :  Nov. :  Feb. 
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             :            --Million metric tons--
Wheat                        :  5.688      6.065     32.094      30.5    33.5
Wheat flour                  :   .151       .064      1.184       1.3     1.0
Rice                         :   .854       .519      3.767       3.2     3.2
Coarse grains 2/             :  9.806     11.273     65.670      56.2    58.7
   Corn                      :  8.455     10.397     58.645      51.0    53.0
Feeds & fodders              :  2.043      2.189     13.483      13.3    13.8
Oilseeds and products        :  6.645      5.974     34.050      31.2    30.9
  Soybeans                   :  4.854      4.434     23.584      21.8    22.0
  Soybean meal               :   .963       .862      6.094       5.5     5.3
  Soybean oil                :   .208       .125      1.216        .9      .8
Beef, pork & variety meats   :   .206       .240      1.262       1.5     1.5
Poultry meat                 :   .309       .389      1.901       2.1     2.2
Animal fats                  :   .288       .292      1.725       2.1     2.1
Cotton & linters             :   .244       .268      2.068       1.6     1.7
Horticultural products       :  1.321      1.242      7.001       8.0     7.5
Other                        :   .937       .991      4.999       5.0     5.5
   Total agriculture         : 28.492     29.506    169.204     156.0   161.6
   Major bulk products 4/    : 21.446     22.559    127.183     113.3   119.1
 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
 
 1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.  4/ Includes wheat,
rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.
 
Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1994-96 1/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
                                                                          
                             :  October-November  :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal 1996
            Region           : 1994/95 :  1995/96 :   1995   :    Forecast
                             :         :          :          :   Nov. : Feb.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                             :           --Billion dollars--
 
Western Europe               :   1.714     1.816       8.781     9.2    9.4
    European Union 2/        :   1.638     1.748       8.416     8.7    9.0
    Other Western Europe     :     .076     .068        .365      .5     .4
                             :  
Central and Eastern Europe   :     .090     .057        .306      .4     .3
                             :  
Former Soviet Union          :     .196     .289       1.158     1.3    1.5
  Russia                     :     .138     .212        .911     1.1    1.3
                             :  
Asia                         :     3.459   4.617      23.980    26.2   27.7
    Japan                    :     1.664   2.021      10.450    11.3   11.7
    China                    :      .125    .360       2.412     2.7    2.9
    Other East Asia          :     1.146   1.381       7.560     8.6    9.0
      Taiwan                 :      .423    .469       2.552     2.7    2.8
      South Korea            :      .473    .591       3.575     4.4    4.6
      Hong Kong              :      .247    .321       1.425     1.5    1.6
    Southeast Asia           :      .368    .669       2.582     2.7    3.0
      Philippines            :      .108    .147        .675      .7     .8
    South Asia               :      .155    .186        .976      .9    1.1
      Pakistan               :      .067    .118        .341      .3     .5
                             :
  Middle East                :      .418    .471        2.426    2.6    2.7
      Israel                 :      .082    .097         .462     .5     .5
      Saudi Arabia           :      .087    .097         .486     .5     .5
 
  Africa                     :      .524    .553        2.988    3.1    3.2
    North Africa             :       .376   .369        2.111    2.2    2.2
      Egypt                  :       .238   .267        1.378    1.3    1.4
      Algeria                :       .086   .042         .461     .5     .5
    Sub-Saharan Africa       :       .148   .184         .877     .9    1.0
                             :
  Latin America              :      1.513  1.468        8.103    8.4    8.5
    Mexico                   :       .743   .607        3.699    3.8    3.8
    Other Latin America      :       .769   .861        4.404    4.6    4.7
      Brazil                 :       .210   .111         .638     .6     .6
      Venezuela              :       .060   .062         .496     .6     .5
                             :
Canada                       :       .993  1.005        5.836    6.1    6.1
                             :  
Oceania                      :       .107   .081         .562     .7     .6
                             :  
       Total                 :      9.014 10.357        54.141  58.0   60.0
                             :  
  Developed countries        :      4.561  5.020        26.092  27.8   28.3
  Developing countries       :      4.042  4.631        24.173  25.8   27.0
  Other countries            :       .411   .706         3.876   4.4    4.7
                             :
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Country totals are adjusted for transshipments through Canada.
2/  Austria, Finland, and Sweden are included in the European Union.
 
Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by commodity, 1994-96
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             :  October-November   : Fiscal  :  Fiscal 1996
      Commodity              : 1994/95  : 1995/96  :   1995   :   Forecast
                             :          :          :          : Nov. : Feb
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             :              --Billion dollars--
Animals and products         :   .961      1.001      5.926     5.4   5.4
  Live animals               :   .264       .280      1.655     1.4   1.4
  Red meats                  :   .388       .362      2.332     2.1   2.1
  Dairy products             :   .100       .111      1.046     1.0   1.0
                             :                                                 
                             :
Horticultural products       :  1.526      1.722      9.906    10.1   10.1     
 Fruits, incl. Juices        :   .465       .482      3.366     3.5   3.5
   Bananas and plantains     :   .184       .190      1.130     1.1   1.1
  Vegetables and preps.      :   .390       .455      3.030     3.0   3.0
  Nuts and preps.            :   .100       .093       .496      .5    .5
  Wine and malt beverages    :   .436       .535      2.207     2.3   2.3
  Nursery and cut flowers    :   .134       .157       .807      .8    .8
                             :                                                 
                             :        
Grains and feeds             :   .424       .480      2.291     2.4   2.4
  Grains                     :   .122       .124       .654      .8    .8
  Feeds and products         :   .303       .355      1.637     1.6   1.6
                             :
Sugar and related products   :   .163       .192      1.221     1.3   1.3
Oilseeds and products        :   .266       .342      1.760     1.7   2.0
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :   .100       .127       .572      .5    .7
Coffee, incl. products       :   .566       .508      3.363     3.0   3.0
Cocoa and products           :   .186       .186      1.089     1.1   1.1
Rubber and allied gums       :   .187       .233      1.589     1.6   1.6
Other products               :   .283       .325      1.813     1.9   1.9
                             :
  Total                      :  4.662      5.115     29.530    29.0  29.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports:  Volume by commodity, 1994-96
----------------------------------------------------------------------------   
                             :
                             :   October-November   :  Fiscal  : Fiscal 1996
      Commodity              :  1994/95  : 1995/96  :   1995   :  Forecast
                             :           :          :          : Nov.: Feb.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             :            --Million metric tons--
                             :
Red meats                    :   .172        .160       1.054     1.0   1.0
Cheese and casein            :   .046        .047        .244      .2    .2
Horticultural products       :  1.181       1.301       8.441     8.7   8.9
  Fruits, fresh or frozen    :   .171        .187       1.889     2.1   2.1
    Bananas and plantains    :   .677        .658       3.878     4.0   4.0
  Vegetables, fresh/frozen   :   .292        .419       2.484     2.4   2.6
  Nuts and preps.            :   .041        .036        .189      .2    .2
  Wine and malt beverages 1/ :  2.559       3.021      15.523    16.0  16.0
  Fruit juices 1/            :  5.386       3.424      24.192    23.0  23.0
Grains and feeds             :  1.480       1.251       7.415     8.5   6.7
  Grains                     :  1.016        .768       5.750     5.9   4.1
  Feed and products          :   .464        .483       2.524     2.6   2.6
Sugar, cane or beet 2/       :   .146        .202       1.541     2.0   2.0
Oilseeds and products        :   .545        .586       3.107     3.1   3.3
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :   .044         .044       .216      .2     3
Coffee, incl. products       :   .142         .176       .935     1.0   1.1
Cocoa and products           :   .106         .104       .614      .7    .7
Rubber and allied gums       :   .162         .171      1.043     1.0   1.0
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 1/ Million hectoliters.  Not included in horticultural totals.  2/ Imports
for consumption, product weight.Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by
region, 1994-96
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            :  October-November    :  Fiscal  : Fiscal 1996 
       Region               : 1994/95  : 1995/96   :   1995   :    Forecast
                            :          :           :          : Nov. : Feb.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            :             --Billion dollars--
                            :
Western Europe              :   1.107      1.250       5.885     5.9   5.9
  European Union 1/         :   1.078      1.215       5.713     5.7   5.7
  Other Western Europe           .029       .035        .172       .2    .2 
                            :
                            :
Central and Eastern Europe  :    .033       .052        .202      .2    .2
                            :
Former Soviet Union         :    .009       .009        .053       2/   2/
                            :
Asia                        :    .727       .859       5.068     4.9   4.9
  Japan                     :    .054       .054        .305      .3    .3
  China                     :    .071       .072        .482      .5    .5
  Other East Asia           :    .050       .049        .305      .3    .3
  Southeast Asia            :    .467       .598       3.491     3.3   3.3
  South Asia                :    .085       .085        .485      .5    .5
                            :
Middle East                 :    .034       .088        .318      .3    .3
                            :
Africa                      :    .102       .094        .698      .7    .7
  North Africa              :    .009       .010        .069      .1    .1
  Sub-Saharan Africa        :    .093       .084        .629      .6    .6
                            :
Latin America               :   1.463      1.450      10.197     9.7   9.9
  Mexico                    :    .389       .453       3.716     3.7   3.7
  Other Latin America       :   1.074       .997       6.481     6.0   6.2
    Brazil                  :    .300       .175       1.323     1.2   1.4
    Chile                   :    .408       .437        .537      .5    .5
                            : 
Canada                      :    .923      1.065       5.359     5.6   5.9
                            :
Oceania                     :    .265       .248       1.750     1.8   1.7
                            :
    Total                   :   4.662      5.115      29.530    29.0  29.5
                            :
  Developed countries       :   2.349      2.617      13.340    13.6  13.8
  Developing countries      :   2.200      2.365      15.542    14.7  15.0
  Other countries           :    .113       .133        .647      .7    .7
 
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1/ Austria, Finland, and Sweden are included in the European Union.
  2/ Less than $50 million.
 
                                   END-END-END