OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS                        February 23, 1998
February 1998, AES-17
               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the
Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC
20036-5831. This release contains the text and tables of OUTLOOK FOR U.S.
AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--graphics are not included.

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  FISCAL 1998 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST DROPPED TO $56 BILLION 
                                    
Fiscal 1998 U.S. agricultural exports are projected at $56 billion, $2.5
billion below the December forecast and 2 percent under 1997. U.S. exports
of corn are projected down primarily because of strong competition from
large supplies in Argentina and China, as well as reduced demand in Asia.
Since December, prospective U.S. corn exports were decreased by 7 million
tons to 41.5 million, 11 percent below 1997. And as Asia's financial
problems worsened, expected 1998 U.S. agricultural exports to Southeast
Asia and South Korea were dropped. Weaker Asian demand and lower prices
have reduced projected U.S. exports of meat, hides and skins, and
horticultural products by more than $1 billion since December.

Projections for fiscal 1998 imports remain at $38 billion, 6 percent above
1997, with horticultural products still expected to increase sharply. As a
result, the anticipated export surplus was revised down to $18 billion.

Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1998
              -- Year ending September 30 --
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Item              1994     1995      1996     1997      Forecast 1998
                                                          Dec    Feb
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 --Billion dollars--
Exports          43.9      54.6      59.8     57.3       58.5    56.0

Imports          26.6      29.9      32.6     35.8       38.0    38.0

Trade balance    17.3      24.7      27.2     21.5       20.5    18.0

                                -- Million metric tons --
Export volume   127.5     169.7     158.4    147.3      161.4   149.2
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the February 11, 1998, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Approved by the World
Agricultural Outlook Board and released February 23, 1998.

Contents

Fiscal 1998 Agricultural Exports
Commodity Highlights
Economic Outlook
Regional Highlights
U.S. Agricultural Export Programs
Import Highlights

Tables

Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 1994-98
Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1996-98
Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1996-98
Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by region, 1996-98
Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by commodity, 1996-98
Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports:  Volume by commodity, 1996-98
Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by region, 1996-98

     Coordinator (ERS):

Carolyn Whitton (202) 694-5287
Leader, Trade Data Analysis
Trade Analysis Branch
Market & Trade Economics Economic Research Service(ERS)

      Coordinator (FAS):

Ernest Carter (202) 720-2922
Office of Deputy Administrator
Commodity and Marketing Programs
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)

U.S. Department of Agriculture
Washington, D.C. 20250

The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports are based on
information provided by the Market & Trade Economics Division of the ERS
and the Commodity Divisions of FAS. Editorial support is furnished by
Martha R. Evans, Information Services Division, ERS. All telephones are
area code 202.

ERS: Karen Ackerman (Programs, 694-5264); Ed Allen (Wheat/Coarse Grain,
694-5288); Mark Ash (Oilseeds, 694-5289); Nathan Childs (Rice, 694-5292);
Mark Gehlhar (Imports, 694-5273); Shayle Shagam (Beef, 694-5186); Millie
Haley (Pork, 694-5176); Dave Harvey(Poultry, 694-5177); Gary Lucier
(Horticulture, 694-5253); Steve MacDonald (Cotton, 694-5305); Stacey Rosen
(Aid, 694-5164); Andy Jerardo (Macro 694-5323).

FAS: Peter Burr (Cotton, Tobacco, & Seeds 720-9497); Alan Holz (Oilseeds,
720-0143); Linda Kotschwar (Grains and Feeds, 690-4134); Dee Linse (Export
Programs, 720-9847); Joel Greene (Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry, 720-6553);
Debra Pumphrey (Horticultural and Tropical Products, 720-8899).

Regional information, ERS:  Chris Bolling (Brazil, 694-5212); Todd Morath
(East Europe, 694-5161); Hunter Colby (China, 694-5215); Fred Crook (Hong
Kong, 694-5217); John Dyck (Japan & South Korea, 694-5221); Anwarul Hoque
(South Asia, 694-5222); Sophia Wu Huang (Taiwan, 694-5225); Elizabeth Jones
(European Union, 694-5149); Michael Kurtzig (North Africa and the Middle
East, 694-5152); Sharon Sheffield (New Independent States, 694-5167); John
Link (Mexico, 694-5228); Suchada Langley (Canada, 694-5227); Gary Vocke
(Southeast Asia, 694-5241).

The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports is published in February, May,
August, and December. The next issue will be released May 29, 1998. The
summary may be accessed electronically; call (202) 694-5050.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination
on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. (Not all
prohibited bases apply to all programs.)  Persons with disabilities who
require alternative communication of program information (braille, large
print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA TARGET Center at (202)
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Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C., 20250, or
call 1-800-245-6340 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal
opportunity employer.

Commodity Highlights

The forecast for fiscal 1998 exports of U.S. wheat and flour is reduced
500,000 tons and $100 million from the December forecast to 28.5 million
tons valued at $4.4 billion. Wheat prices remain stable; however, slightly
higher overall competitor exports are expected to trim U.S. wheat export
volume. Larger wheat shipments from Australia and Canada are only partly
offset by reduced European Union (EU) exports.

The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. coarse grain exports is reduced 7.2
million tons and $1.3 billion from December's forecast to 47.9 million tons
valued at $5.6 billion due to significantly reduced prospects for corn. The
outlook for U.S. corn exports is reduced 7 million tons and $1.2 billion to
41.5 million tons valued at $4.9 billion. U.S. corn export volume and
prices are lowered largely in response to greater competition from a record
Argentine crop and exports. Increased competition also will continue to
come from China; its exports are forecast to reach 5 million tons. Somewhat
weaker foreign demand, particularly in Southeast Asia, also is eroding U.S.
export prospects.

In fiscal 1998, the U.S. oilseed and product export forecast is lowered
400,000 tons to 36.7 million tons, while export value is raised $200
million to $11.2 billion. U.S. soybean export volume is reduced 800,000
tons to 25.9 million tons due to an upward revision in South American
shipments. However, U.S. soybean export value remains unchanged at $6.7
billion due to somewhat stronger prices, the result of slight reductions in
U.S. soybean and foreign vegetable oil supplies. Prospects have improved
for U.S. vegetable oil exports due to reduced global vegetable oil stocks,
chiefly the result of reduced Malaysian palm oil output.

The 1998 U.S. cotton export projection is unchanged at 1.6 million tons,
valued at $2.7 billion. Slower than expected sales by Central Asian
competitors and greater use of the GSM-102 export credit program are
expected to support sales volumes, but increased export competition and
weakness in Asian demand is putting downward pressure on prices.

Fiscal 1998 U.S. exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy products are
forecast down $900 million from December to $11.3 billion. Beef, pork, and
variety meats are now estimated at 1.4 million tons valued at $4 billion,
down 60,000 tons and more than $300 million from December's forecast. This
revision is due to weaker export prices and lower volumes for beef and
pork. Weak Asian demand, particularly from Japan and Korea, make gains in
export volumes for U.S. red meats unlikely this year. Pork prices are
expected lower because of higher pork production while beef prices are
lower than anticipated because of lower export demand and large U.S. meat
supplies. Poultry and products export value also is unlikely to achieve
further gains this year. Although poultry meat export volume is expected to
remain unchanged at a record 2.6 million tons, export value is reduced
largely due to lower leg quarter prices resulting from Russia's effort to
enforce the collection of customs duties. The U.S. export forecast for
hides and skins is reduced $260 million to $1.5 billion, reflecting Korea's
credit difficulties.

Forecast fiscal 1998 U.S. horticultural export value declines $400 million
from December to $10.8 billion. Although this would still represent a new
sales record, it equals only a 2-percent increase over the previous year
and the smallest annual gain in several years. Exports of fruits (including
preparations) and tree nuts, two major product groups, are revised downward
to $3.3 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively. The forecast for vegetables
and preparations remains unchanged. A major factor slowing growth in
overall horticultural export value is large domestic citrus, tree nut, and
raisin crops. Record orange, orange juice, and grapefruit production is
expected to lower export prices. Large U.S. tree nut and raisin crops,
combined with increased foreign production, also are expected to reduce
prices. The weaker Japanese economy, a stronger U.S. dollar, and the Asian
financial crisis, are all factors slowing growth of exports to Asia. On the
positive side, U.S. horticultural sales to Canada and Mexico are expected
to remain strong, and funding for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's
market promotion activities remains steady.

Economic Outlook

World economic growth is forecast to slip to 2.6 percent in 1998 following
a moderate 3.1 percent pace in 1997. The slowdown is largely
due to the expected output declines in Indonesia, Thailand, and South Korea
and sharp growth slowdowns in Malaysia and the Philippines. Among the
developed economies, the United States will also experience slower growth,
while Japan's outlook remains weak. Canada's and Europe's economic
expansion, however, will offset part of the slowdown.

Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1996-1998
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                        October-December      Fiscal      Fiscal 1998
Commodity                 1996    1997         1997         Forecast
                                                           Dec     Feb
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/       4.854   3.851      16.466       16.7    15.3
  Wheat & flour           1.118   1.096       4.263        4.5     4.4
  Rice                    0.304   0.276       0.962        1.0     1.0
  Coarse grains 2/        2.339   1.399       6.921        6.9     5.6
    Corn                  2.093   1.159       6.107        6.1     4.9
  Feeds and fodders       0.670   0.650       2.673        2.6     2.6

Oilseeds and products     3.907   4.683      11.437       11.0    11.2
  Soybeans                2.797   3.226       6.950        6.7     6.7
  Soybean meal            0.463   0.637       1.746        1.4     1.4
  Soybean oil             0.160   0.231       0.516        0.7     0.7

Livestock products        1.890   2.095       7.706        8.2     7.5
  Beef, pork &
   variety meats          0.927   1.080       3.977        4.3     4.0
  Hides & skins, 
   incl. furs             0.397   0.354       1.693        1.8     1.5

Poultry & products        0.815   0.727       2.872        3.2     2.9
Dairy products            0.174   0.236       0.842        0.8     0.9
Tobacco, unmanufactured   0.432   0.373       1.612        1.6     1.6
Cotton & linters          0.684   0.656       2.737        2.7     2.7
Seeds                     0.282   0.253       0.924        0.9     0.9
Horticultural products    2.781   2.820      10.598       11.2    10.8
  Fruits & preparations   0.813   0.842       3.412        3.5     3.3
  Vegetables & prep-
   arations               0.634   0.714       2.655        2.8     2.8
  Tree nuts & prep-
   arations               0.522   0.458       1.283        1.4     1.2
Sugar,tropical,and other  0.535   0.536       2.064        2.2     2.2

    Total 3/             16.354  16.230      57.258       58.5    56.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.

Macroeconomic conditions in the major U.S. agricultural export markets are
mixed. The European Union is enjoying the fruits of free trade between its
members and more sound fiscal and monetary policies in its drive toward
monetary unification. The EU's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is
projected to increase to 2.7 percent in 1998, from 2.5 percent in 1997.
Japan's real output growth in 1998, however, will be about the same as
1997's slow pace of less than 1 percent because of stagnant domestic
demand, the heavy burden of bad loans held by Japanese banks, and their
exposure in Southeast Asia. Partly making up for Japan's stagnation, Canada
and Mexico are expected to continue healthy growth of 3 and 4.8 percent,
respectively, in 1998 as domestic demand continues to recover in both
countries.

Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1996-98
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                           October-December    Fiscal     Fiscal 1998
  Commodity                 1996    1997        1997        Forecast
                                                           Dec    Feb
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                --Million metric tons--

Wheat                      5.989    6.729      24.531      28.5   28.0
Wheat flour                0.145    0.141       0.504       0.5    0.5
Rice                       0.786    0.734       2.564       2.7    2.7
Coarse grains 1/          16.290   11.597      53.027      55.1   47.9
   Corn                   14.571    9.596      46.579      48.5   41.5
Feeds & fodders            2.999    3.058      12.259      12.7   12.7
Oilseeds and products     12.706   15.564      33.942      37.1   36.7
  Soybeans                10.067   12.063      24.027      26.7   25.9
  Soybean meal             1.710    2.359       6.345       6.7    6.8
  Soybean oil              0.289    0.381       0.924       1.1    1.1
Beef, pork & variety meats 0.320    0.398       1.356       1.5    1.4
Poultry meat               0.656    0.688       2.553       2.6    2.6
Animal fats                0.043    0.057       1.028       0.9    0.9
Cotton & linters           0.396    0.401       1.648       1.6    1.6
Horticultural products     1.829    1.956       7.539       7.7    7.7
Other                      1.919    1.818       6.366       7.0    6.5
  Total agriculture       44.078   43.141     147.319     157.9  149.2
  Major bulk products 2/  33.528   31.524     105.797     114.6  106.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice,
coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.

Developing countries are facing a 2-percentage point decline in overall
growth--from 5.3 percent in 1997 to an expected 3.3 percent in 1998. The
Asian financial crisis accounts for most of the decline, but some spillover
effects in Latin America also are expected to contribute. The Middle East
and Africa will experience moderate growth of 3 to 3.5 percent in 1998. The
lower price of crude oil will not improve growth in the oil-exporting
countries, but will help oil-importing countries lower their import costs.
Modest GDP growth is anticipated in most of the countries in Eastern
Europe. But the New Independent States will remain stagnant as Russia, the
largest economy in the group, is not expected to expand in 1998.

The lower 1998 Asian growth of 3.1 percent is due to recessions in South
Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand, and slower growth in Malaysia and the
Philippines. The extent of these countries' bankruptcies and currency
devaluations raises the risk of additional contagion effects on neighboring
economies. Further Asian currency depreciation depends to a large extent on
China's policy of maintaining the yuan's value.

China and Taiwan will keep the region from sinking into an overall
recession in 1998. But expected growth in these two economies has
deteriorated because of the loss of Asian export markets and greater
competitive pressures in world export markets brought on by the sizable
depreciations of the other Asian currencies. Taiwan has at least allowed a
13-percent depreciation of its dollar vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar, compared
with China which has not devalued. China's weakening domestic demand and
debt-burdened state-owned enterprises, in addition to slower exports, are
expected to push its GDP growth down to 7.2 percent in 1998, from 8.8
percent in 1997.

The currency crisis in Asia that hit countries with high short-term foreign
debt and pegged exchange rates has spread, to some extent, to Latin America
where market-oriented reforms are still underway. To fight off currency
speculators last year, Brazil had to impose extra tight monetary and fiscal
policies in an effort to control inflationary pressure and the growing
current account deficit. Latin America's growth is expected to decline to
3.1 percent in 1998, from 5 percent in 1997, attributed largely to the
slowdown in Brazil. If Brazil sinks into recession, Argentina and
neighboring countries are vulnerable because Brazil is the region's major
importer.

In agricultural export-weighted terms, the U.S. dollar appreciated by more
than 9 percent against Pacific-Asian currencies, and 10 percent against the
European Union currencies from 1996 to 1997. This real appreciation of the
dollar is due principally to the relative health of the U.S. economy and
its rising financial and equity markets to which foreign investment funds
have moved. The Japanese yen depreciated 11 percent in real terms against
the dollar in 1997, and Canada's dollar fell 2.3 percent. On the other
hand, given the Mexican peso's 13- percent real appreciation against the
dollar in 1997, Mexico can afford to import more U.S. agricultural
products.

The outlook for the value of the dollar in 1998 depends on how soon the
troubled Asian economies stabilize and on how large the U.S. trade deficit
becomes. Given the severity of the Asian financial crisis and its scope, it
probably will require more than a year before the Asian economies turn
around and recover. Thus, the dollar is expected to remain relatively
strong in 1998. The dollar's strength will cost the United States some
trade competitiveness in the form of more expensive U.S. exports and
cheaper imports. But, as the U.S. trade deficit gets larger, the dollar
will lose some of its strength. Nevertheless, Americans' strong purchasing
power should provide a much needed lift to countries where export-led
growth is the key to recovery.

Regional Highlights

Since December, forecast exports to Asia have been lowered by $2.1 billion.
This decrease accounts for most of the $2.5-billion reduction projected in
1998 U.S. corn, livestock, and horticultural product exports. Lower prices
and increased competition from Argentina's and China's corn exports are
likely to affect U.S. markets mainly in three regions--Asia, Latin America,
and Africa. But exports to Asia also are expected to be pulled down by the
increased cost of importing from the United States due to the currency
depreciations.

The decreases in Asia were to Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, the
economies most affected by the financial crisis.  Projected exports to
Japan have been dropped 5.5 percent since December, reflecting Japan's
stagnant economic growth and expected reduced demand for higher priced
meats, such as the better cuts of beef imported from the United States.
Also, Japan is increasing purchases of lower-priced Argentine corn and
sorghum. South Korea will import more corn from China, a low-cost source;
however, use of GSM credits is expected to help maintain the U.S. share of
corn exports to Korea. Imports of hides and skins by South Korea, mainly
for production of exportable leather goods, also are expected to slip in
1998. Expected U.S. agricultural exports to South Korea have been dropped
27 percent since December. Reduced income growth and higher import prices
are slowing expansion of consumer demand for meats and other consumer foods
in Malaysia and the Philippines. Recessions in Indonesia and Thailand,
combined with higher prices, suggest a drop in demand for consumer foods.
Since December, these four countries' corn imports from all sources were
lowered. Southeast Asia's forecast agricultural imports from the United
States are down $600 million from December and $800 million from 1997.

However, prospective imports from the U.S. remain unchanged since December
for other Asian countries--China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Asia--which
still are expected to show relatively good economic growth for the year.
The cost of U.S. exports should not have increased as substantially to
these countries. Nevertheless, these countries still must compete with and
sell to their Asian neighbors and, as a result of the crisis elsewhere in
Asia, are likely to have smaller export earnings with which to finance 1998
imports.

Three-percent less growth than in December is now expected in U.S. exports
to Latin America in 1998. But at $10.8 billion, projected 1998 U.S. exports
to Latin America still are forecast up 8 percent year-to-year. Fiscal 1998
U.S. exports to Mexico are unchanged at 14 percent above 1997. Expected
strong economic growth in Mexico is likely to continue raising Mexico's
imports from the United States. But greater competition from corn exports
by Argentina is anticipated, and prospective growth in U.S. exports to
Brazil has been reduced to just over 1997. U.S. exports to other Latin
American countries are projected down slightly from last year, reflecting
competition from Argentina, as well as somewhat slower than earlier
anticipated 1998 economic growth and higher import prices.

The southern part of Africa is experiencing a drought, increasing its need
for corn imports, although some of the corn will come from Argentina, as
well as the United States. Countries in north Africa
are expected to increasingly look to Argentina and Eastern Europe, for
imports of corn.

Forecast U.S. exports to Canada have been increased; while exports to
Western Europe, the Middle East, and Oceania remain unchanged from December
projections. Canada's relatively strong economic growth and robust first
quarter imports from the United States, as well as modest 

Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1996-98
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                           October-December   Fiscal   Fiscal 1998
Region                       1996    1997      1997      Forecast
                                                       Dec     Feb
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  --Billion dollars--

Western Europe              2.820    2.957    9.402     9.5     9.5
  European Union            2.706    2.838    8.785     8.8     8.8
  Other Western Europe      0.114    0.119    0.617     0.7     0.7
Central and Eastern Europe  0.129    0.110    0.301     0.4     0.3
New Independent States 1/   0.530    0.419    1.593     1.4     1.2
  Russia                    0.405    0.328    1.281     1.2     1.0
Asia (excluding Mid East)   6.896    6.118   23.847    23.6    21.5
  Japan                     2.810    2.636   10.705    10.9    10.3
  China                     0.777    0.604    1.774     1.6     1.6
  Hong Kong                 0.410    0.482    1.640     1.7     1.7
  Taiwan                    0.735    0.763    2.588     2.4     2.4
  South Korea              1.060     0.631    3.287     3.3     2.4
  Southeast Asia           0.916     0.781    3.123     2.9     2.3
    Philippines            0.221     0.196    0.898     0.9     0.8
  South Asia               0.187     0.219    0.728     0.8     0.8
    Pakistan               0.113     0.137    0.418     0.5     0.5
Middle East                0.609     0.656    2.506     2.5     2.5
    Israel                 0.137     0.131    0.543     0.5     0.5
    Saudi Arabia           0.146     0.175    0.589     0.6     0.6
Africa                     0.588     0.624    2.231     2.5     2.3
  North Africa             0.368     0.470    1.457     1.7     1.5
    Egypt                  0.241     0.288    0.918     1.1     0.9
    Algeria                0.065     0.082    0.298     0.3     0.3
  Sub-Saharan Africa       0.221     0.154    0.774     0.8     0.8
Latin America              2.765     3.156    9.971    11.1    10.8
  Mexico                   1.413     1.519    5.077     5.8     5.8
  Other Latin America      1.352     1.636    4.894     5.3     5.0
    Brazil                 0.169     0.244    0.461     0.6     0.5
    Venezuela              0.119     0.142    0.548     0.6     0.6
Canada                     1.607     1.781    6.620     6.6     6.9
Oceania                    0.131     0.147    0.534     0.6     0.6
     Total 2/             16.355    16.231   57.258    58.5    56.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU),
including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Totals include transshipments through
Canada, but transshipments are not distributed by country as previously.

economic growth in Europe and Oceania, suggest opportunities for some
export expansion in these regions, moderating the general decline.

U.S. Agricultural Export Programs

New allocations under GSM-102 and GSM-103 export credit guarantee programs
rose sharply since December as the United States announced new or
additional export credit guarantee program allocations for Indonesia, the
Republic of South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. In
December, new GSM-102 programs were announced for South Korea ($1 billion
in FY1998) and Malaysia ($100 million). GSM-102 allocations were increased
for Indonesia (an additional $150 million for a total of $400 million), the
Philippines ($100 million from an earlier allocation of $20 million) and
Thailand (an increase of $200 million to $300 million). On February 5, USDA
announced an additional $100 million in GSM-102 for Korean imports of
cattle hides and skins. In addition, the Supplier Credit Guarantee Program
line for Southeast Asian countries was raised to $50 million from $35
million.

Korea's food processing and textile industries have welcomed guaranteed
credit, which is helping the United States maintain its traditional exports
to that country. As of February 18, 1998, approvals of GSM-102 sales to
Korea have boomed ($328.5 million). Meats, corn, cotton, and soybeans have
been the most popular purchases for Korean importers, although Korean
importers have relied on GSM-102 to purchase U.S. wheat, soymeal, and hides
and skins. Sales to Thailand and Indonesia have progressed more slowly,
with GSM-102 guarantee approvals of $54.2 million for Thai imports of
cotton and oilseeds and $28.5 million for Indonesian imports of oilseeds.
Importers in Malaysia and the Philippines have not yet used their GSM-102
allocations.

The fiscal 1998 appropriation for Title I and Food for Progress (FFP)
programs funded with Title I funds totaled $244.5 million, a 1.5-percent
increase from 1997. Appropriations for Title II remain at $837 million, and
funds for Title III rose $500,000 from 1997 to $30 million. 

Title I programs are planned with 14 countries in 1998; allocations total
about $145 million. These funds are estimated to provide roughly 694,000
tons of commodity assistance. Under the Title I-funded FFP, programs are
planned with five countries--Albania, Bangladesh, Kyrgyzstan, Mozambique,
and Tajikistan--and allocations total about $65 million. As of February 10,
agreements had been signed with Armenia, for $15 million, Nicaragua and Sri
Lanka for $10 million each, and Cote D'Ivoire, Eritrea, Guyana, and
Jamaica, for $5 million each.

Import Highlights

Imports of U.S. agricultural products are expected to reach $38 billion in
fiscal 1998, unchanged from the December forecast. Projected

Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1996-1998
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
   October-December   Fiscal      Fiscal 1998
  Commodity   1996    1997    1997    Forecast
    Dec     Feb
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
    --Billion dollars--
Animal and products          1.632    1.720    6.426    6.9   6.9
   Live Animals              0.382    0.451    1.525    1.6   1.6
   Red Meats                 0.585    0.632    2.583    2.8   2.8
   Dairy Products            0.398    0.350    1.273    1.4   1.4
Horticultural products       3.084    3.342   12.673   14.4  14.3
   Fruits, inc juices        0.958    0.887    4.138    4.7   4.4
   Bananas                   0.283    0.285    1.218    1.3   1.3
   Vegetables and preps      0.860    0.963    3.604    4.1   4.0
   Nuts and preps            0.146    0.197    0.547    0.6   0.7
   Wine & malt beverages     0.801    0.939    3.068    3.5   3.8
   Nursery & cut flowers     0.234    0.264    0.974    1.2   1.2
Grains and feeds             0.806    0.828    2.941    3.0   3.2
   Grains                    0.279    0.250    0.979    0.9   0.9
   Feeds & grain products    0.527    0.578    1.962    2.1   2.3
Sugar & related products     0.368    0.351    1.869    1.7   1.6
Oilseeds and products        0.564    0.559    2.248    2.1   2.1
Tobacco, unmanufactured      0.318    0.228    1.179    1.4   1.4
Coffee, incl prods           0.691    0.879    3.698    3.4   3.4
Cocoa, incl products         0.377    0.434    1.414    1.5   1.6
Rubber and allied gums       0.354    0.268    1.315    1.5   1.3
Other products               0.460    0.545    2.026    2.1   2.2
 
Total                        8.653    9.154   35.788   38.0  38.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

imports of fruits and vegetables were reduced by $400 million but are
offset by an upward revision in imports of beverages and nuts. Wine 
and beer imports have grown at a faster than expected pace and are
projected to reach $3.8 billion. Total horticultural imports are expected
to reach $14.3 billion in fiscal 1998. Total imports of animals and
products are projected at $6.9 billion, unchanged from the December
projection.

Total imports of grains and feeds are expected to reach $3.2 billion, up
$200 million from the December forecast. The increase is due to higher than
expected imports of grain products, particularly processed foods. The
forecast for imports of oilseeds and products was increased by 200,000
tons; however, the value is expected to remain at $2.1 billion as the unit
import value is projected to decline.

Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports:  Volume by commodity, 1996-98
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
    October-December   Fiscal    Fiscal 1998
    Commodity    1996    1997    1997    Forecast
    Dec    Feb
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   --Million metric tons--
Red meats                   0.255    0.269    1.140    1.2     1.2
Cheese and casein           0.082    0.072    0.254    0.3     0.3
Horticultural products      2.510    2.736   11.242   12.8    12.6
  Fruits and preps.         1.489    1.611    6.918    7.6     7.3
     Bananas & plantains    0.953    1.002    3.950    4.1     4.0
  Vegetables and preps      0.962    1.057    4.122    5.0     4.8
  Nuts and preps            0.059    0.068    0.203    0.2     0.2
  Wine & malt beverages 1/  4.546    5.323   20.426   21.0    22.0
  Fruit juices 1/           8.755    6.732   29.829   31.8    30.0
Grains and feeds            2.121    2.018    8.434    8.5     8.7
Grains                      1.601    1.473    5.643    5.6     5.6
Feed and grain products     0.520    0.544    2.791    2.9     2.9
Sugar, cane or beet         0.438    0.475    2.938    2.5     2.3
Oilseeds and products       0.919    1.102    3.780    3.4     3.6
Tobacco, unmanufactured     0.103    0.059    0.337    0.4     0.4
Coffee, incl. products      0.288    0.256    1.212    1.3     1.2
Cocoa, incl. products       0.205    0.206    0.767    0.8     0.8
Rubber and allied gums      0.276    0.268    1.075    1.1     1.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 1/ Million hectoliters not included in horticultural totals.

Sugar imports were reduced by 200,000 tons from December and projected at
2.3 million tons for fiscal 1998. The January tranche of sugar 
under the U.S. tariff-rate quota was canceled. Projected imports of cocoa
and products were increased by $100 million due to higher expected prices.
Imports of rubber were adjusted downward by $200 million from the December
projection, reflecting a falling unit import value on imported rubber from
Southeast Asia. The expected volume of rubber imports remains at 1.1
million tons.

Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1996-98
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
    October-December    Fiscal    Fiscal 1998
Region    1996    1997    1997    Forecast
        Dec    Feb
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                                     --Billion dollars--
Western Europe               2.014   2.100   7.120   7.6    8.2
European Union               1.972   2.050   6.937   7.4    7.4
Other Western Europe         0.043   0.050   0.184   0.2    0.2
Central and Eastern Europe   0.099   0.059   0.252   0.3    0.3
New Independent States 1/    0.028   0.014   0.070   0.1    0.1
Asia                         1.630   1.592   6.408   6.8    6.4
Japan                        0.077   0.089   0.290   0.3    0.3
China                        0.165   0.202   0.645   0.7    0.7
Other East Asia              0.092   0.097   0.350   0.4    0.4
Southeast Asia               0.942   0.886   3.795   4.0    3.5
South Asia                   0.143   0.172   0.687   0.7    0.7
Middle East                  0.211   0.146   0.640   0.7    0.7
Africa                       0.200   0.235   0.871   0.9    0.9
North Africa                 0.017   0.017   0.071   0.1    0.1
Sub-Saharan Africa           0.183   0.218   0.800   0.8    0.8
Latin American               2.463   2.744  11.951  12.7   12.5
Mexico                       0.795   0.966   3.940   4.2    4.2
Other Latin America          1.668   1.778   8.010   8.5    8.5
Brazil                       0.358   0.313   1.517   1.6    1.6
Chile                        0.151   0.142   0.755   0.8    0.8
Canada                       1.841   2.004   7.291   7.7    7.7
Oceania                      0.379   0.408   1.824   1.9    1.9
 
Total                        8.653   9.154  35.788   38.0   38.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union, including the
Baltic Republics.
END_OF_FILE