OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY                 May 29, 1997
              Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
=============================================================================
This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR
U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS (AES-14) will be available within 1-2 weeks following
release of this summary.
==============================================================================

FISCAL 1997 AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST REMAINS
AT $56.5 BILLION; IMPORTS UP $1.5 BILLION

The forecast for fiscal 1997 U.S. agricultural exports is unchanged at $56.5
billion. Since February, decreased prospects for coarse grain and livestock
product exports are offset by gains in wheat, cotton, soybean meal, and
horticultural products.  Higher projected wheat and cotton shipments result in
a $200-million increase for each. Continued strong global demand raises the
value of U.S. soybean meal exports $100 million. Horticultural exports are
raised $100 million on increased tree nut, wine, and essential oil exports. 
The forecast for total export volume is reduced nearly 2 million tons to 143.5
million tons.

U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are forecast at $35.5 billion, $1.5
billion higher than in February. Higher import demand for beef, grains, and
vegetables account for most of the increase. Higher prices for oilseeds are
expected to boost import value. The value of coffee imports is increased
slightly to reflect continued strong prices.

The fiscal 1997 agricultural trade surplus forecast is reduced to $21 billion.

Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1992-1997

                         -- Year ending September 30 --                     
         : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal :     Forecast 
Item     :  1992  :  1993  :  1994  :  1995  :  1996  :    Fiscal 1997
         :        :        :        :        :        :   Feb.  :   May     
         :                      -- Billion dollars --
         :
Exports  :  42.5    42.7     43.9     54.6     59.8      56.5     56.5
         :
Imports  :  24.3    24.5     26.4     29.6     32.4      34.0     35.5
         :
Trade    :
 balance :  18.2    18.2     17.5     25.0     27.4      22.5     21.0
         :
         :                     -- Million metric tons --
Export   :
 volume  : 143.6   146.4    127.5    169.7    158.4     145.4    143.5

This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 12, 1997, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1995-97
                             :    October-March    :  Fiscal  :   Fiscal 1997
      Commodity              :  1995/96 : 1996/97  :   1996   :    Forecast
                             :          :          :          : Feb.   :  May   
                             :              --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/          : 11.030      8.913     21.553     16.2     16.0
  Wheat & flour              :  3.446      1.960      7.032      3.6      3.8
  Rice                       :   .541       .578      1.004      1.0      1.0
  Coarse grains 2/           :  4.909      4.190      9.338      7.3      6.9
    Corn                     :  4.361      3.732      8.369      6.4      6.1
  Feeds and fodders          :  1.365      1.362      2.627      2.7      2.6
                             :                                     
Oilseeds and products        :  5.837      7.414      9.670     10.7     10.8
  Soybeans                   :  3.965      4.961      6.312      7.1      7.0
  Soybean meal               :   .668      1.113      1.305      1.5      1.6
  Soybean oil                :   .199       .341       .272       .5       .5
                             :                                     
Livestock products           :  4.078      3.727      8.067      8.5      8.3
  Beef, pork & variety meats :  2.176      1.842      4.343      4.7      4.6
  Hides & skins, incl. furs  :   .787       .860      1.677      1.6      1.7
Poultry & products           :  1.356      1.488      2.730      3.0      2.9
Dairy products               :   .360       .360       .719       .7       .7
Tobacco, unmanufactured      :   .855       .893      1.393      1.4      1.4
Cotton & linters             :  2.313      1.547      3.028      2.6      2.8
Seeds                        :   .460       .596       .727       .8       .9
Horticultural products       :  4.901      5.308     10.019     10.5     10.6
  Fruits & preparations      :  1.586      1.579      3.311      3.5      3.3
  Vegetables & preparations  :  1.190      1.302      2.423      2.6      2.6
  Tree nuts & preparations   :   .738       .776      1.374      1.3      1.4
Sugar, tropical, and other   :   .880       .994      1.898      2.1      2.1
                             :
   Total 3/                  : 32.071     31.240     59.804     56.5     56.5

         Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1995-97      

                             :    October-March    :  Fiscal  :   Fiscal 1997
      Commodity              :  1995/96 : 1996/97  :   1996   :    Forecast
                             :          :          :          : Feb.  :  May    
                             :              --Million metric tons--
Wheat                        :  16.814     10.703     33.716     20.5   21.5
Wheat flour                  :    .218       .256       .470       .6     .6
Rice                         :   1.524      1.501      2.831      2.4    2.5
Coarse grains 2/             :  33.663     30.746     58.656     55.0   52.8
   Corn                      :  30.069     27.284     52.681     48.5   46.5
Feeds & fodders              :   6.661      6.225     12.065     12.4   12.2
Oilseeds and products        :  19.342     23.661     30.759     33.6   33.3
  Soybeans                   :  14.563     17.641     22.372     24.4   24.1
  Soybean meal               :   2.952      4.109      5.445      6.0    6.1
  Soybean oil                :    .329       .621       .450       .8     .8
Beef, pork & variety meats   :    .685       .628      1.410      1.5    1.5
Poultry meat                 :   1.168      1.245      2.330      2.7    2.5
Animal fats                  :    .789       .487      1.376      1.4    1.0
Cotton & linters             :   1.286       .906      1.703      1.5    1.6
Horticultural products       :   3.589      3.681      7.139      7.5    7.5
Other                        :   2.927      3.293      5.917      6.3    6.5
   Total agriculture         :  88.666     83.332    158.372    145.4  143.5
   Major bulk products 4/    :  67.850     61.497    119.278    103.8  102.5 

 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats,
and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice,
coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.

Printed copies of the U.S. Outlook for Agricultural Exports report will be
available in about 2 weeks.  For more information contact Joel Greene.  E-mail:
jlgreene@econ.ag.gov Phone: (202)219-0816.
END_OF_FILE