OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY             November 30, 1995
                                                (Corrected December 4, 1995)
              Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR
U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is available 2-3 working days following release of
this summary.
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AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST AT A RECORD $58 BILLION IN FISCAL 1996
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is revised upward $3.5
billion to a record $58 billion.   The export volume forecast is lowered
slightly, but remains strong at 156 million tons.  Tight global supplies are
expected to substantially raise prices for wheat, coarse grains, and
soybeans, boosting export value by $2.1 billion compared with the August
forecast.  Livestock product exports are forecast $1.2 billion higher than in
August, largely because of an anticipated $900-million increase in red meat
shipments.  The cotton export forecast is reduced $400 million, reflecting
prospects for increased foreign competition.
 
The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural imports is $29 billion,
unchanged  from the August forecast.  A $300-million increase in grain and
sugar product imports is offset by lower coffee imports. 
 
The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is forecast at a record $29 billion in
fiscal 1996.  This forecast surpasses the previous record of $26.6 billion,
set in fiscal 1981.
 
Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1991-1996
                  -- Year beginning October 1 --                  
         :      :      :       :        :      : Forecast 
Item     : 1991 : 1992 : 1993  :  1994  : 1995 :  1996
         :      :      :       :        :      :  Aug.: Nov.
         :                      -- Billion dollars --
         :
Exports  :  37.5   42.3   42.5    43.5   54.1    54.5   58.0
         :
Imports  :  22.6   24.3   24.5    26.4   29.5    29.0   29.0
         :                                                   
Trade    :
 balance :  14.9   18.0   18.0    17.1   24.6    25.5   29.0
         :                                                   
         :                       -- Million tons --
Export   :
volume   : 129.4  143.6  146.4   127.4  169.2   156.5   156.0
         :                                                   
This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the November 9, 1995, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
 
          Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1993-96
                          :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal  :   Fiscal 1996
      Commodity           :   1993   :   1994   :   1995   :    Forecast
                          :          :          :          :  Aug.   :  Nov.
                          :              --Billion dollars--
Grains and feeds 1/       :    14.332   13.285    17.637      17.5      19.1
  Wheat & flour           :     4.954    4.228     5.201       5.4       5.9
  Rice                    :      .768     .891     1.050       1.0       1.0
  Coarse grains 2/        :     5.094    4.569     7.411       7.1       7.9
    Corn                  :     4.251    3.817     6.619       6.4       7.2
  Feeds and fodders       :     2.196    2.150     2.511       2.6       2.8
                          :
Oilseeds and products     :     7.371    6.976     9.119       8.9       9.9
  Soybeans                :     4.606    4.161     5.274       5.3       6.1
  Soybean meal            :     1.146    1.013     1.079       1.0       1.3
  Soybean oil             :      .327     .433      .809        .6        .5
                          :
Livestock products        :     5.886    6.343     7.808       7.6       8.8
  Beef, pork & variety
    meats                 :     3.052    3.206     4.044       3.9       4.8
  Hides & skins, incl.
    furs                  :     1.271    1.380     1.719       1.8       1.9
Poultry & products        :     1.315    1.718     2.210       2.4       2.4
Dairy products            :      .891     .810      .812        .9        .9
Tobacco, unmanufactured   :     1.443    1.260     1.329       1.3       1.3
Cotton & linters          :     1.538    2.306     3.496       2.9       2.5
Seeds                     :      .664     .618      .680        .7        .7
Horticultural products    :     7.299    8.098     9.110      10.3      10.3
  Fruits & preparations   :     2.746    3.047     3.263       3.7       3.6
  Vegetables & 
    preparations          :     2.102    2.169     2.538       2.9       2.9
  Tree nuts & 
    preparations          :      .920    1.124     1.108       1.2       1.2
Sugar, tropical, & other  :     1.716    2.060     1.940       2.0       2.1
                          : 
   Total 3/               :    42.454   43.474    54.141      54.5      58.0
                          :                                                 
 
         Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1993-96
                          :   Fiscal  :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal 1996
      Commodity           :   1993    :   1994   :   1995   :    Forecast
                          :           :          :          : Aug.   :  Nov.
                          :            --Million metric tons--
Wheat                     :    36.081    31.132    32.094    30.5      30.5
Wheat flour               :     1.067     1.037     1.184     1.0       1.3
Rice                      :     2.713     2.438     3.767     3.4       3.2
Coarse grains 2/          :    50.100    39.845    65.670    56.5      56.2
   Corn                   :    41.766    33.057    58.645    51.0      51.0
Feeds & fodders           :    11.885    11.797    13.483    13.3      13.3
Oilseeds and products     :    29.408    24.154    34.050    31.2      31.2
  Soybeans                :    20.400    16.364    23.584    21.8      21.8
  Soybean meal            :     5.653     4.859     6.094     5.3       5.5
  Soybean oil             :      .644      .694     1.216     1.0        .9
Beef, pork & 
  variety meats           :      .903     1.025     1.262     1.2       1.5
Poultry meat              :      .974     1.364     1.901     2.0       2.1
Animal fats               :     1.362     1.324     1.725     1.7       2.1
Cotton & linters          :     1.163     1.639     2.068     1.7       1.6
Horticultural products    :     6.189     6.560     7.001     8.0       8.0
Other                     :     4.588     4.497     4.999     6.0       5.0
   Total agriculture      :   146.433   126.812   169.204   156.5     156.0
   Major bulk products 4/ :   110.457    91.418   127.183   113.9     113.3
                          :                                                
 
 1/ Includes pulses and corn products.  2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum,
oats, and rye.  3/ Totals might not add due to rounding.  4/ Includes wheat,
rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton.
 
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