OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS                      September 8, 1997
               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by 
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AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS (August 1997, AES-15) -- tables and graphics are not
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FISCAL 1998 AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST AT $58.5 BILLION,
SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD 

The initial fiscal 1998 projection of U.S. agricultural exports is $58.5
billion, up $2 billion from the fiscal 1997 forecast and second only to the
fiscal 1996 record. The projected increase in value is about equally divided
between bulk and high value product exports. Expanding exports of grains, meat,
and horticultural products account for much of the prospective gain. The only
major category expected to show a year-to-year drop in export value is oilseeds
and products. Record soybean crops in the United States and Brazil are expected
to lead to sharply lower prices. The fiscal 1997 forecast of $56.5 billion is
unchanged from May.

Export volume is projected to reach 161.4 million tons in fiscal 1998, second
only to the fiscal 1995 record. Major bulk commodities are projected to rise to
118.5 million tons from the 103.5 million estimated for 1997, as grain and
oilseed exports increase.

U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1998 are projected at $38 billion, up 6
percent from the revised 1997 figure of $36 billion. The import growth rate,
however, is expected to slow as coffee imports stabilize.

The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is projected at $20.5 billion in fiscal
1998, unchanged from the revised fiscal 1997 forecast.


Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1993-1998

                         -- Year ending September 30 --                     

         : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal :     Forecast     :  Fiscal 
Item     :  1993  :  1994  :  1995  :  1996  :   Fiscal  1997   :   1998
         :        :        :        :        :   May   :   Aug. : Projected 

         :                      -- Billion dollars --

Exports  :  42.7     43.9    54.6      59.8      56.5     56.5      58.5
         :
Imports  :  24.6     26.6    29.9      32.6      35.5     36.0      38.0
         :
Trade    :
 balance :  18.1     17.3    24.7      27.2      21.0     20.5      20.5
         :
         :                     -- Million metric tons --
Export   :
 volume  : 146.4    127.5   169.7     158.4     143.5    144.3     161.4

This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the August 12, 1997, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Contents

Fiscal 1998 Agricultural Exports
Commodity Highlights
Economic Outlook
Regional Highlights
U.S. Agricultural Export Programs
Import Highlights

Tables

Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 1993-98
Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1996-98
Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1996-98
Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by region, 1996-97
Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by commodity, 1996-98
Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports:  Volume by commodity, 1996-98
Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by region, 1996-97

Coordinator (ERS): Carolyn Whitton (202) 219-0825
Commercial Agriculture Division
Economic Research Service (ERS)

Coordinators (FAS):

Ernest Carter (202) 720-2922
Office of Deputy Administrator
Commodity and Marketing Programs
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)

U.S. Department of Agriculture
Washington, D.C. 20250

The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports are based on
information provided by the following analysts in the Commercial Agriculture
Division of the Economic Research Service and in the Commodity Divisions of the
Foreign Agricultural Service. Editorial support is furnished by Martha R.
Evans, Information Services Division, ERS. All telephone numbers are area code
202.

ERS:  Karen Ackerman (Export Programs, 501-8511); Ed Allen (Wheat and Coarse
Grains, 219-0831); George Douvelis (Oilseeds, 219-0765); Nathan Childs (Rice,
501-8513); Mark Gehlhar (Imports, 501-8525); Ronald Gustafson (Beef, 219-0848);
Mildred Haley (Pork, 219-0833); David Harvey (Poultry, 219-0839); Gary Lucier
(Horticultural Products, 219-0117); Stephen MacDonald (Cotton, 219-1179);
Stacey Rosen (Food Aid, 501-8445).

FAS:  Peter Burr (Cotton, Tobacco and Seeds, 720-9497); Alan Holz (Oilseeds,
720-0143); Linda Kotschwar (Grains and Feeds, 690-4134); Dee Linse (Export
Programs, 720-9847); Nancy Morrison (Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry, 720-8252);
Debra Pumphrey (Horticultural and Tropical Products, 720-8899).

Regional information can be provided by the following analysts in the
Commercial Agriculture Division, ERS:  Chris Bolling (Brazil, 219-0668); Nancy
Cochrane (Central and Eastern Europe, 219-0650); Hunter Colby (China,
219-0669); Frederick Crook (Hong Kong, 219-0002); John Dyck (Japan and South
Korea, 219-0698); Anwarul Hoque (South Asia, 219-0665); Sophia Wu Huang
(Taiwan, 219-0679); Elizabeth Jones (European Union, 219-0619); Michael Kurtzig
(North Africa and the Middle East, 219-0636); Jay Mitchell (Newly Independent
States, 501-8330); John Link (Mexico, 219-0667); Jim Stout (Canada, 219-0678);
Gary Vocke (Southeast Asia, 501-5575).

The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports is published in February, May,
August, and November/December. The next issue is scheduled for release on
December 2, 1997. 

Commodity Highlights

The forecast for fiscal 1997 exports of U.S. wheat and flour is increased 1.9
million tons and $250 million from the previous May forecast to 24 million tons
valued at $4 billion. The improved outlook is due to the increased pace of
wheat shipments with foreign demand stronger than previously expected. In
fiscal 1998, wheat and flour exports are forecast to rise 6.5 million tons and
$600 million to 30.5 million tons valued at $4.6 billion. Rising wheat export
volume should more than offset weaker export prices. A larger U.S. wheat crop
forecast for 1997/98, and smaller exportable supplies from Canada, Australia,
and Argentina underpin the improved outlook.

The fiscal 1997 forecast for coarse grain exports is reduced 600,000 tons from
May's forecast to 52.2 million. Lower estimates for corn and sorghum shipments
were only partly offset by higher barley estimates. Coarse grain export value
remains unchanged at $6.9 billion. Corn exports are now forecast at 46 million
tons valued at $6.1 billion. Reduced prospects for U.S. corn and sorghum
shipments are mainly due to lower U.S. exports to Mexico and an increase in
China's corn exports to Asian markets.

Fiscal 1998 coarse grain exports are expected to rise 6 million tons and $600
million to 58.2 million tons valued at $7.5 billion. This improved outlook is
due to an increase in corn export volume, since prices are expected to remain
firm and little change in export volume is expected for the other coarse
grains. Although a slightly reduced U.S. corn crop is forecast this year,
rising foreign demand and reduced competition from Argentina and China should
favor increased U.S. corn shipments.

The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. rice exports remains unchanged from May's
forecast at 2.5 million tons valued at $1 billion. Fiscal 1998 U.S. rice
exports are forecast to rise 200,000 tons to 2.7 million tons, but lower export
prices are expected to leave export value unchanged. A 6-percent rise in U.S.
rice production forecast for 1997/98 is expected to increase supplies available
for domestic use and export.

The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. exports of oilseeds is reduced 300,000 tons
from May's forecast to 33 million tons due to a downward revision in soybean
shipments. Stronger than expected 1996/97 South American soybean exports curbed
U.S. shipments. Total oilseed export value, however, remains unchanged at $10.8
billion, mainly due to somewhat stronger soybean meal prices.

In fiscal 1998, exports of U.S. oilseeds and products are forecast to rise 3.2
million tons to 36.2 million tons on broad-based gains for soybeans, soybean
meal, and soybean oil. However, weaker soybean and soybean meal export prices
are forecast to reduce total oilseeds and products export value by $1 billion
to $9.9 billion. The expected price declines reflect the sharp recovery
forecast in both domestic and foreign oilseed stocks from their reduced 1997
levels. The U.S. soybean crop is forecast at a record 2,744 million bushels
(74.69 million tons) in 1997, or 15 percent above the previous year's harvest.
The larger U.S. soybean crop and rising foreign demand led to an expected rise
in U.S. soybean and product export volumes. China, which accounts for much of
the increased foreign demand, is expected to import more oilseeds because its
1997/98 production is forecast lower than the previous year. China's rapidly
growing demand for protein meal and vegetable oils continues.



Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports:  Value by commodity, 1996-1998

                             : October-June  :Fiscal: Fiscal 1997:  Fiscal
      Commodity              :1995/96 :96/97 : 1996 :  Forecast  :   1998
                             :        :      :      : May : Aug. : Projected 

                             :              --Billion dollars--

Grains and feeds 1/          :16.314   12.521 21.553  16.0  16.1    17.3
  Wheat & flour              : 4.923    2.835  7.032   3.8   4.0     4.6
   Rice                      :  .773     .803  1.004   1.0   1.0     1.0        
   Coarse grains 2/          : 7.430    5.600  9.338   6.9   6.9     7.5
    Corn                     : 6.709    4.980  8.369   6.1   6.1     6.8
  Feeds and fodders          : 2.032    2.037  2.627   2.6   2.6     2.5
                             :
Oilseeds and products        : 7.757    9.551  9.670  10.8  10.8     9.9
  Soybeans                   : 5.159    6.112  6.312   7.0   6.9     6.1
  Soybean meal               :  .935    1.505  1.305   1.6   1.7     1.4
  Soybean oil                :  .241     .384   .272    .5    .5      .6
                             :
Livestock products           : 6.291    5.693  8.067   8.3   7.9     8.7
  Beef, pork & var. meats    : 3.434    2.884  4.343   4.6   4.2     4.8
  Hides & skins, incl. furs  : 1.260    1.300  1.677    .7   1.7     1.8
Poultry & products           : 1.996    2.165  2.730   2.9   3.0     3.0
Dairy products               :  .563     .584   .719    .7    .8      .8
Tobacco, unmanufactured      : 1.173   1.391   1.393   1.4   1.6     1.6        
Cotton & linters             : 2.788   2.268   3.028   2.8   2.7     2.8
Seeds                        :  .586    .754    .727    .9    .9      .9
Horticultural products       : 7.499   7.939  10.019  10.6  10.6    11.2
  Fruits & preparations      : 2.448   2.493   3.311   3.3   3.4     3.5
  Vegetables & preparations  : 1.869   2.025   2.423   2.6   2.6     2.7
  Tree nuts & preparations   : 1.008    .956   1.374   1.4   1.3     1.4
Sugar, tropical, and other   : 1.390   1.507   1.889   2.1   2.1     2.3
                             :
   Total 3/                  :46.357  44.373  59.795   56.5 56.5    58.5


Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports:  Volume by commodity, 1996-1998             

                             :October-June  : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 :  Fiscal 
      Commodity              :1995/96 :96/97:  1996  :   Forecast  :   1998
                             :        :     :        :  May : Aug. : Projected 

                             :             --Million metric tons--

Wheat                        : 23.405  15.547  33.716  21.5  23.5    30.0
Wheat flour                  :   .340    .355    .470    .6    .5      .5
Rice                         :  2.227   2.087   2.831   2.5   2.5     2.7
Coarse grains 2/             : 48.125  41.635  58.656  52.8  52.2    58.2
   Corn                      : 43.591  36.885  52.681  46.5  46.0    52.0
Feeds & fodders              :  9.574   9.371  12.065  12.2  12.2    12.4
Oilseeds and products        : 25.066  29.321  30.759  33.3  33.0    36.2
  Soybeans                   : 18.557  21.215  22.372  24.1  23.7    26.0
  Soybean meal               :  4.043   5.450   5.445   6.1   6.1     6.6
  Soybean oil                :   .399    .693    .450    .8    .8     1.0
Beef, pork & variety meats   :  1.097    .982   1.410   1.5   1.4     1.6
Poultry meat                 :  1.720   1.851   2.330   2.5   2.5     2.6
Animal fats                  :  1.148    .768   1.376   1.0    .9      .9
Cotton & linters             :  1.562   1.356   1.703   1.6   1.6     1.6
Horticultural products 4/    :  5.446   5.709   7.139   7.5    .5     7.7
Other                        :  4.538   4.878   5.916   6.5   6.5     7.0
   Total agriculture         :124.248 113.860 158.371 143.5 144.3   161.4
   Major bulk products 5/    : 93.876  81.840 119.278 102.5 103.5   118.5

 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats,
and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Products measured in
liters not included. 5/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and
cotton.


The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. cotton export volume remains unchanged from
the May forecast at 1.6 million tons, while value is reduced slightly to $2.7
billion. In fiscal 1998, U.S. cotton exports are forecast at 1.6 million tons
valued at $2.8 billion. The U.S. cotton crop is forecast at 17.8 million
480-lb. bales, or 6 percent below the previous year's level. With export
volumes forecast to remain unchanged, ending stocks should be lower. Uzbekistan
and Australia, the major export competitors, are expected to increase exports.
China's cotton imports are forecast to decline, but other buyers are expected
to more than offset this change.

Fiscal 1997 U.S. unmanufactured tobacco exports should reach 240,000 tons
valued at $1.6 billion. This represents an increase in both value and volume
from the May forecast of 225,000 tons valued at $1.4 billion. In fiscal 1998,
export volume and value are forecast to remain unchanged. Japan, the EU, and
Turkey remain the major overseas markets.

The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy
products is lowered $200 million from the previous May forecast to $11.7
billion. A large downward revision in the beef, pork, and variety meat export
forecast was only partly offset by increases for poultry and dairy products.
Since May, the beef, pork, and variety meat export forecast was lowered 100,000
tons and $400 million to 1.4 million tons valued at $4.2 billion. The pace of
Japan's beef and variety meat imports from the United States and other
countries remained slow throughout the third quarter, far longer than earlier
anticipated. The slow pace stemmed from consumer concern over food safety
issues unrelated to the product imported. Rising U.S. beef exports to Mexico
partially offset slower sales to Japan.

In fiscal 1998, U.S. exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy products are
forecast to rise $800 million to a record $12.5 billion. Sales are forecast to
rise 250,000 tons and $600 million to a record 1.6 million tons and $4.8
billion. The outlook is based on an expected recovery in beef and variety meat
sales to Japan as consumer concerns over food safety dissipate, and the
expected expansion in U.S. pork sales to Japan, the result of a foot and mouth
disease outbreak in Taiwan. 

U.S. poultry meat exports are forecast to rise 100,000 tons to 2.6 million in
fiscal 1998, mainly due to rising shipments to Asia. The collection of import
duties on U.S. poultry meat entering Russia limited further gains in export
value throughout 1997 and is expected to continue to do so again in 1998. Lower
average unit values for poultry meat in 1998 leave the value for poultry and
products unchanged at $3 billion.

Minor adjustments to fruits and tree nuts leave the overall fiscal 1997
forecast for U.S. horticultural exports unchanged from the May forecast of
$10.6 billion. The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. horticultural exports is $11.2
billion. This equals a $500-million increase over the fiscal 1997 forecast and
a record high. With increases of $100 million each, fruit, vegetable, and tree
nut exports are forecast to reach record highs of $3.5 billion, $2.7 billion,
and $1.4 billion, respectively. Other products, most notably essential oils,
wine, and miscellaneous food preparations, account for the remaining growth.
This 6-percent increase in total horticultural exports assumes that sales to
Mexico continue strong, exports to Canada benefit from the progressive lowering
of duties, steady growth to key Asian Pacific Rim markets and across Latin
America continues, and USDA market promotion activities continue to support
U.S. agricultural product sales.

Economic Outlook

World gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 3.2 percent in 1998, a
marginal improvement over the 3.1 percent expected in 1997. Growth in developed
country GDP will pull world GDP up. Developed country income is projected to
rise to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent in 1997. Japan and the European Union
likely will show the strongest gains among the developed countries, rising 2.5
and 2.6 percent respectively, compared with just 2.0 and 2.3 percent estimated
for 1997. But overall gains will be limited by the anticipated decline in U. S.
income growth to 2.8 percent, down from the 3.2-percent gain estimated for 1997
and the anticipated leveling in 1998 GDP in developing countries. Income growth
rates in Asia, in recent years a strong growth region, are expected to flatten,
while the Middle East and North Africa decline slightly. Projected gains in
Latin American and the Transitioning Economies likely won't be sufficient to
offset this leveling.


Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1996-97         

                            :     October-June    :  Fiscal  :  Fiscal 1997
          Region            :  1995/96  : 1996/97 :   1996   :     Forecast  
                            :           :         :          :   May  :  Aug.
  
                            :                --Billion dollars--

Western Europe              :  7.574      7.478      9.533       9.4    9.5
  European Union            :  7.302      7.099      9.171       9.0    9.0
  Other Western Europe      :   .272       .380       .362        .4     .5
Central and Eastern Europe  :   .310       .252       .408        .4     .3
Newly Independent States 1/ :  1.241      1.210      1.667       1.7    1.5
  Russia                    :   .916       .988      1.252       1.5    1.4
Asia                        : 18.910     17.404     25.970      24.1   24.2
  Japan                     :  9.287      8.425     11.839      11.0   11.0
  China                     :  1.511      1.545      1.829       2.0    2.0
  Other East Asia           :  6.257      5.945      8.191       7.6    7.6
    Taiwan                  :  2.179      2.055      2.928       2.5    2.5
    South Korea             :  2.920      2.686      3.732       3.5    3.5
    Hong Kong               :  1.158      1.204      1.530       1.6    1.6
  Southeast Asia            :  2.801      2.522      3.381       3.0    3.0
    Philippines             :   .686       .703       .905        .8     .9
  South Asia                :   .563       .511       .564        .5     .6
    Pakistan                :   .300       .306       .394        .3     .4
Middle East                 :  1.964      1.917      2.593       2.1    2.1
    Israel                  :   .488       .445       .626        .6     .6
    Saudi Arabia            :   .426       .438       .580        .5     .6
Africa                      :  2.143      1.426      3.192       1.8    1.8
  North Africa              :  1.472       .838      2.259       1.1    1.1
    Egypt                   :   .988       .514      1.533        .6     .6
    Algeria                 :   .249       .187       .334        .2     .3
  Sub-Saharan Africa        :   .671       .589       .933        .7     .7
Latin America               :  7.377      7.538      9.973      10.0   10.1
  Mexico                    :  3.762      3.812      5.021       5.4    5.1
  Other Latin America       :  3.616      3.726      4.952       4.6    5.0 
    Brazil                  :   .365       .361       .590        .5     .5
    Venezuela               :   .344       .438       .448        .6     .6
Canada                      :  4.452      4.917      5.992       6.5    6.5
Oceania                     :   .343       .375       .476        .5     .5
                            :
     Total                  : 46.357     44.373     59.795      56.5   56.5

  1/ Newly Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU),
including the Baltic republics.

The impact of the current financial difficulties in Thailand, Indonesia,
Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore will be reflected in the 1998
projections for countries and regions shown in the December report.
Regional Highlights

Since May prospects for U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico declined while
expected exports to other Latin American countries improved, more than
offsetting this reduction. Nevertheless, exports to Mexico still are projected
to exceed those in 1996. 

Exports to other Latin American countries are now projected at $5 billion. So
far in fiscal 1997 exports to other Latin America have increased to $3.7
billion, up 3 percent from 1996. The largest export gains are in soybeans and
soybean meal, which to date are up $101 and $81 million, respectively. Exports
of tobacco, vegetables, and feed grains are also up sharply. Already trade with
Venezuela, Argentina, the Caribbean, Central America, Ecuador, and Chile
exceeds $100 million each and is up 6-27 percent.   

In contrast, exports to Mexico during October 1996-June 1997 reached $3.8
billion, just 1 percent above exports a year earlier. Forecasts for 1997 U.S.
agricultural exports to Mexico were reduced to $5.1 billion, down from earlier
expectations of growth, but still above the $5 billion exported there last
season. The value of most of the largest U.S. exports to Mexico, particularly
grains, is off sharply this season, but gains in many smaller export categories
are offsetting this drop. Important exports that are up substantially include
live cattle and calves, beef and veal, and miscellaneous dairy products.

Reductions also have been made in prospective 1997 exports to the Newly
Independent States (NIS) and Eastern Europe. The $1.2 billion in exports
shipped to the NIS in October-June is 2 percent less than exports at the same
time last year, so projected total exports have been decreased to $1.5 billion
compared with last year's $1.7 billion. Half of this reduction is in Russia,
where projected exports are dropped to $1.4 billion, but still a gain over last
year's $1.3 billion. The $252 million in exports to Eastern Europe so far this
year is 19 percent behind shipments at the same time last year. Anticipated
total 1997 exports to Eastern Europe have been lowered to $300 million.  

U.S. Agricultural Export Programs

Export Subsidy Programs

On June 30, 1997, USDA announced Export Enhancement Program (EEP) and Dairy
Export Incentive Program (DEIP) allocations for July 1997 through June 1998.
EEP allocations were announced for sales to 75 countries totaling 17.3 million
metric tons of wheat; 49 countries totaling 475,000 metric tons of wheat flour;
23 countries totaling 1.6 million tons of barley and malting barley; 33
countries totaling 150,000 tons of barley malt; 27 countries totaling 178,000
tons of rice; 32 countries totaling 409,043 tons of vegetable oils; 27
countries totaling 31,715 tons of frozen poultry; and 7 countries totaling 20.9
million dozen eggs. High prices have enabled exporters to sell EEP commodities
without EEP bonuses. No sales have been made under EEP in fiscal 1997 (as of
August 21, 1997).

DEIP allocations are available for sales to 115 countries totaling 92,217
metric tons of nonfat dry milk; 97 countries totaling 7,487 tons of whole milk
powder; 111 countries totaling 34,232 metric tons of butterfat; and 109
countries totaling 3,510 tons of Cheddar, Feta, Gouda, cream, Mozzarella, and
processed American cheeses. DEIP sales in fiscal 1997 to date totaled 126.582
tons of dairy products with a total DEIP bonus of $108 million. 

DEIP sales are booming in fiscal 1997. As of August 27, 5,287 tons of anhydrous
milk fat, 7,943 tons of butter and butter oil, 3.368 tons of cheese, 2,819 tons
of whole milk powder, and 107,165 tons of nonfat dry milk were sold.

CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs

Sales under the fiscal 1997 Export Credit Guarantee Program (GSM-102) 
are progressing slowly. Country allocations in fiscal 1997 were $3.9 billion 
as of August 1, 1997, although applications received from exporters were 
$2.4 billion, or less than two-thirds of the allocations. Importers in Mexico
continue to be the chief purchasers of U.S. agricultural products under
GSM-102, accounting for over $1 billion in applications received from
exporters, or more than 40 percent of GSM-102 exporter applications.

U.S. Food Aid Programs

The U.S. Food for Peace Program, or Public Law 480 (P.L. 480), uses
appropriated funds to provide U.S. agricultural assistance to countries at
different levels of economic development. The P.L. 480 program is comprised
of three titles. Title I is administered by USDA, while Titles II and III are
administered by the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID).

The fiscal 1997 appropriations act made funds available for Title I and Food
for Progress (FFP) programs funded with Title I funds totaling $240.8 million,
marking a 24-percent cut from 1996. Appropriations for Title II increased
slightly to $837 million, while those for Title III were cut nearly in half to
$29.5 million.

As of August 5, Title I agreements were signed with 12 countries, with
allocations totaling nearly $150 million. These funds will provide about
700,000 tons of commodity assistance, most of which is wheat. Kyrgyzstan,
Mongolia, and Tajikistan are expected to receive commodity donations totaling
$30 million under the FFP program. Title I allocations totaling $25 million
have been announced, but not signed, with four countries. When all agreements
are signed, Title I and FFP programs are expected to provide about 931,000 tons
of commodity assistance to 19 countries.

Approximately a third of Title II appropriations are for Sub-Saharan Africa;
more than 60 percent of which are emergency funds. Rwanda is expected to
receive the largest share of the region's Title II emergency funds, while
Ethiopia will receive the largest share of the region's Title II development
funds. Eritrea, Ethiopia, Haiti, Mozambique, and Nicaragua will receive
commodity assistance from Title III allocations.

Import Highlights

U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1998 are projected at $38 billion, up $2
billion from fiscal 1997. The rate of growth in imports is expected to slow as
prices for coffee and other tropical products stabilize or fall from their 1997
levels. Imports of horticultural products are projected to continue at a pace
similar to the previous year. Total imports in fiscal 1997 were revised upward
$500 million with higher than expected imports of coffee, horticultural, and
oilseeds and products.


Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by commodity, 1996-98           

                        :    October-June    : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 :  Fiscal
 Commodity              : 1995/96  : 1996/97 :  1996  :   Forecast  :   1998
                        :          :         :        :  May : Aug. : Projected 

                        :                 --Billion dollars--

Animals and products    : 4.390      4.850     5.955     6.4   6.5      6.9
  Live animals          : 1.167      1.139     1.551     1.6   1.5      1.6
  Red meats             : 1.651      1.939     2.251     2.4   2.6      2.8
  Dairy products        :  .874       .961     1.209     1.3   1.3      1.4
                        :       
Horticultural products  : 9.015      9.853    11.692    12.9  13.2     14.4
  Fruits, incl. juices  : 2.989      3.326     3.806     4.3   4.4      4.7
   Bananas & plantains  :  .876       .922     1.177     1.3   1.3      1.3
  Vegetables & preps.   : 2.777      2.890     3.421     3.9   3.9      4.3
  Nuts and preps.       :  .373       .408      .530      .6    .6       .6
  Wine & malt beverages : 1.918      2.228     2.658     3.1   3.1      3.3
  Nursery & cut flowers :  .729       .744      .949     1.1   1.1      1.2

Grains and feeds        : 1.850      2.202     2.518     3.1   3.0      3.0
  Grains                :  .511       .763      .674     1.0   1.0      0.9
  Feeds & grain products: 1.339      1.439     1.844     2.1   2.0      2.1
                        :
Sugar & related products: 1.155      1.286     1.808     1.8   1.7      1.7
Oilseeds and products   : 1.605      1.711     2.059     2.1   2.3      2.3
Tobacco, unmanufactured :  .539       .872      .770     1.1   1.2      1.4
Coffee, incl. products  : 2.228      2.691     2.860     3.2   3.5      3.4
Cocoa, incl. products   : 1.106      1.062     1.333     1.4   1.4      1.4
Rubber and allied gums  : 1.013      1.023     1.441     1.5   1.4      1.4
Other products          : 1.488      1.519     2.129     2.0   1.9      2.1
   Total                :24.385     27.067    32.565    35.5  36.0     38.0
                        :

Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports:  Volume by commodity, 1996-98           

                        : October-June  : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 :   Fiscal
      Commodity         : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :  1996  :   Forecast  :    1998  
                        :         :         :        :  May  : Aug.:  Projected 

                        :                --Million metric tons--

Red meats               :   .752     .858     1.024    1.1     1.1      1.2
Cheese and casein       :   .175     .190      .243     .3      .3       .3
Horticultural products  :  8.737    9.004    10.887   12.0    12.1     12.8
  Fruits and preps.     :  5.266    5.454     6.963    7.0     7.2      7.6
    Bananas & plantains :  2.990    2.953     4.007    3.9     3.9      4.1
  Vegetables and preps. :  3.329    3.395     4.001    4.8     4.7      5.0
  Nuts and preps.       :   .142     .155      .194     .2      .2       .2
  Wine & malt           :
   beverages 1/         : 12.756   14.588    17.795   20.0    19.5     20.6
  Fruit juices 1/       : 18.483   23.671    24.370   29.0    30.0     31.8
Grains and feeds        :  4.777    6.474     6.270    8.3     8.6      8.7
  Grains                :  2.780    4.389     3.563    5.4     5.8      5.6
  Feed & grain products :  1.997    2.085     2.707   2.92      .8      2.9
Sugar, cane or beet 2/  :  1.507    1.895     2.733   2.72      .5       NA
Oilseeds and products   :  2.608    2.775     3.330    3.6     3.7      3.5
Tobacco, unmanufactured :   .182     .249      .259     .4      .4       .4
Coffee, incl. products  :   .854     .941     1.109    1.2     1.3      1.3
Cocoa, incl. products   :   .625     .597      .792     .8      .8       .8
Rubber and allied gums  :   .752     .815      .999    1.1     1.1      1.1
                        
1/ Million hectoliters not included in horticultural totals. 2/ NA = not
available; 1998 sugar forecast not available because tariff rate quota not yet
announced.


Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports:  Value by region, 1996-97            

                        :    October-June   : Fiscal :  Fiscal 1997   
   Region               : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :  1996  :    Forecast
                        :         :         :        :   May  :   Aug.   

                        :                 --Billion dollars--

Western Europe          :  4.790    5.321     6.517     7.2      7.1
  European Union 1/     :  4.654    5.194     6.339     7.1      6.9
  Other Western Europe  :   .136     .128      .178      .2       .2
Central and Eastern
  Europe                :   .182     .211      .223      .3       .3
Former Soviet Union     :   .074     .052      .180      .1       .1
Asia                    :  4.284    4.853     5.815     5.7      5.7
  Japan                 :   .222     .217      .292      .3       .3
  China                 :   .399     .495      .546      .7       .7
  Other East Asia       :   .243     .263      .334      .4       .4
  Southeast Asia        :  2.636    2.809     3.590     3.8      3.7
  South Asia            :   .438     .492      .631      .6       .7
Middle East             :   .345     .578      .422      .9       .8
Africa                  :   .633     .664      .851      .9       .9
  North Africa          :   .058     .054      .075      .1       .1
  Sub-Saharan Africa    :   .575     .610      .777      .8       .8
Latin America           :  8.491    9.192    10.859    11.7     12.1
  Mexico                :  3.154    3.276     3.729     4.3      4.3
  Other Latin America   :  5.336    5.917     7.129     7.4      7.8
    Brazil              :  0.876    1.038     1.250     1.4      1.4
    Chile               :   .584     .655      .697     1.0       .9
Canada                  :  4.777    5.451     6.485     7.2      7.3
Oceania                 :  1.154    1.321     1.635     1.5      1.7
    Total               : 24.385   27.067    32.560    35.5     36.0

1/ Austria, Finland, and Sweden are included in the European Union.
2/ Less than $50 million.

Higher imports of beef from Australia and New Zealand in fiscal 1997 pushed 
red meat imports to $1.9 billion through June. Beef import volume is expected to
grow 6 percent in fiscal 1998. It is expected that Argentina will fill its 20,000-ton
beef quota for imports to the U.S. in fiscal 1998.

Imports of horticultural products are expected to reach $13.2 billion for fiscal
1997. Fruit imports were revised upward by $100 million as imports from Mexico
were higher than expected. Projected horticultural product imports for fiscal
1998 are $14.4 billion, up 1.2 billion from 1997.

Grains and feed imports are estimated at $3 billion in fiscal 1997, revised
downward by $100 million due to lower import prices. The volume of grain imports
was revised upward by 400,000 tons, reaching 5.8 million. For fiscal 1998, total
grain and feed imports are projected to remain at the 1997 level.

Imports of oilseeds and products were revised upward by $200 million from the
May forecast as tight domestic supplies drew greater oilseed and product imports
than earlier expected. Projected imports of oilseeds and products for fiscal
1998 are expected to reach $2.3 billion. Tobacco imports are expected to
increase in fiscal 1998 by $200 million due to a smaller domestic crop.

Coffee imports for fiscal 1997 were revised upward by 100,000 tons and $300
million as import prices continued to climb from April to June. Imports of
coffee for fiscal 1998 are expected to fall by $200 million due to lower prices.

END_OF_FILE