Contact: Luigi Romolo (lromolo@srcc.lsu.edu)

Southern Regional Climate Center

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Southern Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | December 2016 

Southern Region

December 2016

Highlights for the Region

• Generally speaking, it was a warmer than 

normal autumn for the Southern Region. 

Temperatures were consistently 4°F to 

6°F above normal in the northern half of 

the region, and typically 2°F to 4°F above 

normal in the southern half of the region.

• Unlike summer, which was associated 

with abundant precipitation and historic 

flooding in August, autumn in the 

Southern Region was very dry with a 

majority of stations reporting only two 

thirds of normal precipitation or less. 

• Hurricane season drew to an end on 

November 30, and the final storm counts 

are in. Though the number of storms 

was above normal, none of the storms 

impacted the Southern Region. 

National – Significant Events for November and Autumn 2016 

Regional – Climate Overview for September–November 2016

The average U.S. temperature during November was 48.0°F, 6.3°F above average and the second warmest 

on record. The autumn U.S. temperature was 57.6°F, 4.1°F above average and the warmest on record. The 

November precipitation total was 1.73 inches, 0.5 inches below the average. The autumn precipitation total 

was 6.88 inches, which is average for the period. Material provided in this map was compiled from NOAA’s 

State of the Climate Reports. For more information please visit: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc.

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

September 1 – November 30, 2016

November average streamflow compared 

to historical streamflow. 

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F) 

September 1 – November 30, 2016

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies Streamflows

The above figure illustrates the November 

average streamflow in the Texas Gulf and 

lower Mississippi basins as compared 

to historical streamflow. Below normal 

precipitation in the central and eastern 

counties of the Southern Region resulted 

in below normal streamflows. In Texas, 

streamflows remained in the normal range, 

while closer to the coast, some rivers were 

still reporting below normal discharges. 

After a very wet summer, autumn precipitation was 

very hard to come by in the Southern Region. Only 

a small area of west central Texas saw precipitation 

totals for autumn exceed expected normals. 

Conditions were extremely dry throughout Arkansas, 

Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Many locations 

experienced weeks at a time without a drop of 

rainfall. A bulk of the stations in this part of the 

region reported less than half of normal precipitation.

Autumn temperatures in the Southern Region 

were consistently above normal throughout 

the season. Almost every station in the region 

averaged at least 2°F above normal. In the 

northern half of the region, temperatures 

averaged between 4°F-6°F above normal, 

while the southern counties observed slightly 

smaller anomalies ranging from 2°F-4°F above 

normal. The region-wide average temperature 

for September to November was 68.50°F, 

making it the second warmest on record 

(1895–2016). 
Contact: Luigi Romolo (lromolo@srcc.lsu.edu)

Southern Regional Climate Center

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Southern Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | December 2016

Regional – Impacts for September–November 2016

Earth Scan Lab at Louisiana State University

www.esl.lsu.edu

NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

NOAA/NOS Gulf of Mexico Coastal Services Center

www.csc.noaa.gov

NOAA Gulf of Mexico Collaboration Team

www.regions.noaa.gov

NOAA/NESDIS National Centers for Environmental 

Information

www.ncei.noaa.gov

NOAA/NWS Southern Region 

www.srh.noaa.gov

Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program

www.southernclimate.org

Southern Regional Climate Center

www.srcc.lsu.edu

Gulf Region Partners

According to the Climate Prediction Center, winter (December to March) temperatures for the Southern 

Region are expected to be above normal in all six states. Winter precipitation totals are expected to be 

lower than normal, across much of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi. Tennessee 

could see above normal precipitation, particularly in the north central counties of the state. 

The primary impacts story for this past quarter in the Southern Region is drought and the subsequent impacts. As of August 30, 2016, the 

Southern Region was almost drought-free. But lack of precipitation, however, combined with above normal temperatures to create a recipe for 

drought. What is most remarkable about this drought, is that in August, south central and east central Louisiana experienced a one thousand year 

flooding event, only to find itself under drought conditions by mid-October. By the end of November, conditions deteriorated with approximately 

50 percent of the region experiencing drought conditions. Louisiana and Arkansas, which were drought-free at the end of the summer, were 

completely blanketed by drought at the end of autumn. Mississippi and Tennessee were also showing 100 percent drought coverage at the end of 

November. According to the November 29, 2016 drought map produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center, 13.67 percent of the region 

was experiencing D3 drought conditions or worse, most of which was concentrated in central Tennessee, Mississippi, and northeastern Louisiana. 

By late October, the Tennessee Division of Forestry issued a statewide ban on open burning. In addition, they also refrained from issuing burn 

permits. On October 11, Governor Phil Bryant issued a statewide burn ban in Mississippi. Precipitation in the south has helped alleviate the severity 

of drought in the region and some of the impacts as well. As of December 13, 2016, 42.25 percent of the Southern Region remains under drought 

conditions, though the amount of D3 and D4 drought has been reduced to just over one percent of areal coverage. On December 15, 2016, the 

Climate Prediction Center issued its U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlooks, which predicts that drought should persist through the winter months and 

into March. Some additional winter drought development is possible in southeastern Texas. 

As of November 30, the 2016 Atlantic hurricane 

season officially ended. In total, there were 15 

named storms, of which 7 achieved hurricane 

strength and three reached Category 3 or higher. 

None of the storms impacted the Southern Region. 

CPC Three-Month Outlook 2016 Hurricane Season

Temperature Precipitation 

A = Above normal temperatures 

B = Below normal rainfall

Outlook for October–December 2016

Above: The U.S. Drought Monitor map for August 30, 2016 (left), November 29, 2016 (middle), and the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (right). Sources for the drought 

maps are the National Drought Mitigation Center www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu. Source of the drought outlook map: The Climate Prediction Center,

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 

Autumn Drought