Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|June 2016

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Eastern Region

June 2016

National - Signifcant Events for March–May 2016

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies 

Regional - Climate Overview for March–May 2016

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

March 1–May 31, 2016

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

March 1–May 31, 2016

April

Highlights for the East

Five tornadoes touched down in Ohio on March 14, 

which was above average for the month. The region 

saw below-average tornado actvity in April and May. 

The median tornado frequency (2000–2015) for 

Virginia and the Carolinas during spring is 16, but this 

year there was only one in North Carolina on May 5. 

During spring, there were 12 large hail (2+ in.) reports 

in those three states, which is double the median. A 

2.75 in. hailstone fell in Montgomery County, MD, on 

May 2, which was the county's largest since 1950. 

More than 600 daily high temperature records were 

set or ted in the region during March. However, 

Arctc air moved into the region in early April. See the 

Impacts secton for more informaton.

Several sites set records due to excessive precipitaton, 

or lack thereof.

• Washington Natonal, DC: 15 consecutve days with 

measurable precipitaton (April 27–May 11) 

• Syracuse, NY: wetest May day (2.42 in. on May 29)

• Cape Hateras, NC, and Richmond, VA: all-tme 

wetest May (12.67 in. and 9.79 in., respectvely)

• Williamsport, PA, and Kennedy Airport, NY: driest 

March–May (4.91 in. and 6.34 in., respectvely) 

• Caribou, ME: largest late-season snowfall (4.5 in. on 

May 16)

• Binghamton, NY: least snowy October–May (32 in.) 

With below-normal precipitaton in March 

and April, abnormal dryness expanded in the 

Northeast and was introduced in Virginia and 

the Carolinas. Moderate drought was also 

introduced in some areas. The dry conditons 

contributed to several wildfres, including two 

in eastern North Carolina that led to an air 

quality alert and two that caused train delays 

in the New York City metro area. Also, a fre in 

Shenandoah Natonal Park, VA, burned over 

10,000 acres, making it one of the largest fres 

in the park's history. Frequent precipitaton 

from late April to mid-May eased dryness in 

parts of the Mid-Atlantc, but dry conditons 

lingered elsewhere.

The Eastern Region saw 71% of normal 

precipitaton in March, its 11th driest, and 75% 

of normal precipitaton in April. Nine states 

ranked this March and three states ranked 

this April among their top 20 driest. During 

much of May, the main storm track was parked 

over the Mid-Atlantc, bringing persistent 

precipitaton and cool temperatures. For more 

informaton, see the Impacts secton. The 

region saw 108% of normal May precipitaton, 

with the six southernmost states ranking 

this May among their top 20 wetest. Spring 

precipitaton was 86% of normal, with three 

states having a top 20 driest spring.

The Eastern Region had its sixth warmest 

March on record at 5.9°F above normal. All 

16 states saw above-normal temperatures, 

with 13 ranking this March among their top 

10 warmest. April was 0.8°F colder than 

normal, with 12 states seeing below-normal 

temperatures. The 16 states were split 

between colder than normal and warmer 

than normal in May. The region wrapped up 

the month at exactly normal. It was the 14th 

warmest spring on record at 1.7°F above 

normal. All states were warmer than normal, 

with 14 ranking this spring among their top 20 

warmest.

Drought in the East

Normals based on 1981–2010

The contguous U.S. average temperature for spring was 53.7°F, 2.8°F above the 20th century average. 

The U.S. had its fourth warmest March on record with an average temperature of 47.5°F, 6.0°F above 

average. April's average temperature of 53.2°F was 2.2°F above average, making it the 18th warmest on 

record. The average temperature for May was 60.3°F, 0.1°F above average. The spring U.S. precipitaton 

total was 9.03 inches, 1.09 inches above the 20th century average. March precipitaton was 2.89 

inches, 0.38 inches above average, while April precipitaton was 2.95 inches, 0.43 inches above 

average. The U.S. precipitaton total in May was 3.04 inches, 0.13 inches above average.

U.S. Drought Monitor

June 16, 2016

March
Regional - Impacts and Updates for March–May 2016

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|June 2016 

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Summer 2016 Eastern Region Partners

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Ofces, Atlantc

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Ofce for Coastal Management

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov

NOAA Research, Climate Program Ofce and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.research.noaa.gov

NOAA Natonal Sea Grant Ofce

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantc, South Atlantc, and Great

Lakes Regional Collaboraton Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Southeast Regional Climate Center

www.sercc.com

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton

System

www.drought.gov

Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments

www.cisa.sc.edu

Consortum on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperatve Insttute for North Atlantc Research

www.cinar.org

Eastern Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Precipitation and 

Temperature

A

Valid for July–September 2016

The Climate Predicton 

Center is forecastng 

an increased chance 

of above-normal 

temperatures for the 

entre Eastern Region 

(map above). The greatest chances are in 

southern South Carolina and much of the 

Northeast. Equal chances of below-, near, or 

above-normal precipitaton were forecast for 

the entre region.

La Niña

As of early June, El Niño dissipated and 

ENSO-neutral conditons were present in the 

equatorial Pacifc Ocean. Most models predict 

La Niña conditons will develop during summer, 

with a 75% chance of La Niña during fall and 

winter. Currently, forecasters are expectng a 

weak or borderline moderate La Niña.

50

50

Spring transitoned from summer-like 

in March to winter-like in early April. On 

March 9, 14 major Northeast climate sites 

had their warmest day so early in the 

season. Greenville–Spartanburg, SC, had its 

greatest number of 70°F March days, while 

Wilmington, NC, had its greatest number of 

80°F March days. The warmth caused plants 

to bud earlier than usual. 

In early April, lows fell below freezing from 

Maine to the Carolinas. On the 5th, Concord, 

NH, had its all-tme coldest April temperature 

and Ithaca, NY, had a below zero April 

temperature for the frst tme. The cold 

spell signifcantly 

damaged some 

grain and fruit crops, with some stone fruits 

a near total loss.

In parts of the Mid-Atlantc and Ohio, wet 

and cool conditons in May slowed crop 

growth and delayed feld work, such as hay 

harvest and soybean and corn plantng. 

The conditons contributed to fruit rot in 

strawberries and diseases in other crops. 

Hailstorms in early May also damaged some 

crops. Conversely, farmers in New York and 

New England had to irrigate some crops due 

to dry conditons. 

Coarse-scale global climate models have a warm bias in sea surface 

temperature in the Northwest Atlantc, especially within the Northeast 

U.S. Contnental Shelf (Cape Hateras, NC, to the Gulf of Maine), due to 

inaccurate positoning of the Gulf Stream. Also, these climate models 

cannot take into account the fne-scale submarine topography of the 

Shelf, such as its deep canyons and banks, which impacts the regional 

circulaton. A study by Saba et al. (2016) found that a high-resoluton 

global climate model from NOAA was more accurate at resolving 

these regional dynamics. The carbon dioxide doubling response from 

this model shows that botom ocean 

temperature in the Shelf, partcularly 

in the Gulf of Maine, warms at a rate 

nearly 2–3 tmes as fast as the coarser 

models. This enhanced warming 

is accompanied by an increase in 

salinity due to a change in water mass 

distributon that is related to a retreat 

of the Labrador Current and a northerly 

shif of the Gulf Stream, which is 

related to a weakening of the Atlantc 

Meridional Overturning Circulaton. 

A

40

NOAA high-resoluton global 

climate model projecton of botom 

ocean temperature change under 

an atmospheric carbon dioxide 

doubling experiment.

Atlantic Hurricane Season

NOAA’s 2016 Atlantc hurricane outlook

indicates a near-normal season is most likely. 

There’s a 70% chance of 10–16 named storms. 

Of the named storms, 4–8 could become 

hurricanes, with 1–4 of those becoming 

major hurricanes. Two factors infuencing this 

year’s outlook are the Atlantc Mult-Decadal 

Oscillaton (AMO) and La Niña. This season 

is expected to be more actve than the past 

three, which were below normal. The Atlantc 

hurricane season runs from June 1 through 

November 30, with a peak from mid-August to 

late October. There have already been three 

named storms: Hurricane Alex in January, 

Tropical Storm Bonnie in late May, and Tropical 

Storm Colin in early June.

Drought

The U.S. Drought Outlook

indicates dry conditons 

are favored to persist in 

far western portons of the 

Carolinas. With increased 

chances of precipitaton 

over the next two weeks 

and favorable precipitaton 

climatology that tends 

to limit prolonged and 

widespread droughts, dry 

conditons are expected to 

ease in the Northeast. 

Valid for June 16–September 30, 2016

A: Above-normal

#: Probability of 

above-normal

Spring Conditions

High temperatures on 

March 9 (reported on 

March 10) were 25–40°F 

above normal across much 

of the Northeast. 

Ocean Warmth Projections

From April 5 to 6, low 

temperatures were 32°F or 

below in much of the region.

NOAA Fisheries released a draf 

climate science acton plan for the Northeast U.S. Contnental Shelf 

Ecosystem and is seeking comments through July 29. The draf plan 

outlines a strategy and specifc actons for increasing understanding of, 

preparing for, and responding to climate change efects on the region’s 

species and the people that depend on them. 

Draft Climate Action Plan