Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

March 2014 (Experimental) 

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Gulf of Maine Region

March 2014 (Experimental)

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=F2BDD611

 Gulf of Maine Significant Events - for December 2013–February 2014

Temperature Sea Surface Temperatures

Regional Climate Overview - for December 2013–February 2014

A storm system brought a thick layer of ice and more than 30 cm (12 in.) of 

snow to much of the region from December 20–23. The airport in Saint John, 

NB, reported 53 hours of freezing precipitation. The storm left over 170,000 

customers in southern New Brunswick and over 100,000 customers in Maine 

without power for up to 11 days. Bitterly cold temperatures followed the 

storm with recorded lows of below -25° C (-13° F).

From January 2–3, a Nor’easter dropped up to 61 cm (24 in.) of snow, mainly 

on coastal New England. The storm packed high winds, which led to blizzard 

conditions and flooding in southeastern Massachusetts. 

Records indicate that each January there tends to be a thaw, usually lasting a 

few days. This January’s thaw, which occurred around mid-month, was quite 

warm and persistent. In many communities, highs neared or exceeded 10°C 

(50°F) for more than a week. The mild conditions resulted in ice movement 

on many rivers as well as significant snow loss. 

Freezing rain, rain, and high winds caused transportation problems from 

January 11–12 in New Brunswick. Bathurst, for example, had 10 hours of 

freezing rain and a wind gust of 96 km/h (60 mph) was reported in Saint John. 

A flash freeze event occurred in New Brunswick on January 27 when 

temperatures dropped from above-freezing to below-freezing in a short 

period of time. For example, Doaktown had a 13°C (23°F) temperature 

variation in one hour. 

An intense low pressure system brought blizzard conditions to much of the 

Maritimes on January 22. There were reports of near-zero visibilities, snowfall 

amounts of up to 30 cm (12 in.), and wind gusts to 80 km/h (50 mph), with a 

local maximum of 102 km/h (63 mph) on the Eastern Shore.

The mean sea surface temperature (SST) 

during winter in the central Gulf of Maine and 

Georges Bank was 5-10°C (41-50°F). Cooler 

temperatures were found along the Scotian 

Shelf, Bay of Fundy, and New England coast, 

where the mean SST was 0-5°C (32-41°F). SSTs 

in the Gulf of Maine during December and 

January were generally warmer than normal, 

especially in the central Gulf. Temperatures near 

land and on the western Scotian Shelf were the 

notable exception. In February, most of the Gulf 

of Maine was warmer than normal, with the 

western Scotian Shelf also warming to aboveaverage temperatures. However, colder than 

normal temperatures remained near the New 

England coast. 

Most of the region received near to abovenormal precipitation in December. Northern 

Nova Scotia was the wettest area at 200-

225% of normal precipitation. Overall, the 

Maritimes and much of Maine received up to 

200% of normal precipitation in January, but 

western Maine and coastal New Hampshire 

and Massachusetts received 50-90% of normal. 

February was generally wetter than normal, 

with parts of New Brunswick and coastal 

Massachusetts seeing 200-225% of normal 

precipitation. Midcoast Maine, however, was 

drier at 75-100% of normal. For winter, the 

Maritimes received above-normal precipitation, 

with up to 175% of normal in some areas, while 

the rest of the region received near-normal 

amounts.

SST normals based on 1981-2010

Mean Sea Surface Temperatures from NOAA AVHRR 

data. Credit: University of Maine School of Marine 

Sciences and NERACOOS

Percent of 

Normal

Precipitation

At several New Brunswick sites, 

the snow on the ground at the 

end of December was nearly 

three times the normal amount. 

Large variations in daily 

temperature occurred in 

January across the region. 

On the 2nd, lows dropped 

to nearly -37°C (-35°F), but 

on the 12th, highs rose 

above 10°C (50°F). 

Up to 51 cm (20 in.) of snow fell on parts of the region from 

February 15–16. Winds greater than 100 km/h (62 mph) caused 

blizzard conditions in several Maritimes communities, downed 

trees, and left thousands without power. A storm surge in excess of 

1 m (3.3 ft.) was reported, but widespread flooding did not occur.

Caribou, ME and Concord, NH set records for consecutive days with 

measurable snowfall. Caribou had 13 such days from December 

15–27, while Concord had seven such days from December 9– 15.

February was another snowy month. Concord, 

NH, had their 3rd snowiest February on 

record at 287% of normal. In New Brunswick, 

Gagetown had 229% of normal snowfall.

Departure 

from 

Normal

December was significantly colder than normal, 

with departures as low as -7°C (-12.6°F). January 

was generally milder, with average temperatures 

just below to just above normal. February 

departures ranged from -2.2°C (-4°F) in the U.S. 

and northern Maritimes to near or slightly above 

normal elsewhere. For winter, temperatures 

ranged from slightly below normal in the U.S. to 

near or just below normal across the Maritimes.

This winter, arctic air moved into the eastern 

U.S. and Canada, while warmer air moved into 

the western U.S. and Canada, due in part to the 

polar vortex. The polar vortex is a permanent, 

large-scale area of low pressure in the upper 

atmosphere near the poles that contains very 

cold air. When the polar vortex is strong, the 

cold air is kept in place. When the polar vortex 

weakens, cold air moves south via the jet stream 

in some areas while other areas warm up. 

December 1, 2013–

February 28, 2014

December 1, 2013–

February 28, 2014

December 1, 2013–

February 28, 2014

Temperature and precipitation normals based on 1981-2010. 

Canada precip data: Canadian Precipitation Analysis.

U.S. precip data: interpolated station data
Regional Impacts - for December 2013–February 2014

Regional Outlook - for Spring 2014 Gulf of Maine Region Partners

Environment Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

NOAA Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

Northeast River Forecast Center

www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Regional Climate Services

www.rcsdhome.org

Gulf of Maine Research Institute

www.gmri.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

National Integrated Drought Information System 

www.drought.gov

Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region

www.cinar.org

Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment, Climate 

Network

www.gulfofmaine.org/climatenetwork

Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal and Ocean 

Systems

www.neracoos.org

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Contacts

NOAA:

Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Samantha Borisoff (samantha.borisoff@cornell.edu)

Environment Canada:

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

819-997-2800 (long-distance charges apply)

enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca 

This is a new publication designed to help others understand 

climate trends and their impacts. We welcome your feedback.

Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

March 2014 (Experimental) 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=F2BDD611

Snow

The tough winter has resulted in considerable 

efforts to ensure road safety. Through 

late February, the Maine Department of 

Transportation had spent $25.4 million on 

clearing snow and treating roads compared to 

$15.7 million during an average winter. At the 

city level, Truro, NS, spent 35% more than its 

allotted budget for snow and ice removal as 

of late February. Road salt usage was up this 

winter, as well. In mid-February, the Maine 

Department of Transportation anticipated this 

season would have the highest use of salt in six 

years. (See http://bangordailynews.com/2014/02/23/news/

state/maine-department-of-transportation-spending-10-

million-more-than-average-to-keep-roads-clear-this-winter)

Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks

NOAA’s Climate 

Prediction Center 

is forecasting 

equal chances of above-, near-, or belownormal temperatures for March–May in the 

Northeast U.S. This means that it is just as 

likely for the region to experience belownormal temperatures as it is to have above- or 

near-normal temperatures.

As for precipitation, the Climate Prediction 

Center is forecasting equal chances of above-, 

near-, or below-normal precipitation for 

spring. Environment Canada’s precipitation 

forecast calls for a slightly elevated chance of 

above-normal precipitation in southern Nova 

Scotia and equal chances elsewhere. 

There is an increasing chance of El Niño 

development from late spring through fall, 

which could influence weather patterns and 

hurricane season. El Niño is characterized by 

unusually warm sea surface temperatures in 

the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the 

equator. 

Insects

Regional entomologists say that low temperatures 

will likely limit this year’s winter moth population. 

Research is underway to determine if cold 

temperatures cause greater mortality in adults 

(which mate in December and need temperatures 

above freezing) or in moth eggs - which freeze 

when temperatures fall below -29°C (-20°F). The 

spread of hemlock woolly adelgid was also likely 

slowed by winter mortality. (See http://www.pressherald.

com/news/Hate_the_cold__Bugs_don_t_fare_well__either_.

html)

Environment 

Canada is calling 

for an increased 

chance of 

below-normal 

temperatures in 

Quebec and New Brunswick for March–May. 

The seasonal forecast is based on a group of 

twenty forecasts produced with two Canadian 

climate models coupled with an oceanography 

model. Some of the factors influencing these 

models are sea surface temperature, sea 

ice, and land snow cover. The below-normal 

temperature forecast is, to a degree, attributed 

to the greatest sea ice coverage of the past 

20 years (in the Atlantic Canada marine area) 

and the southern edge of snow cover being 

further south than normal. In addition, the polar 

vortex, which was partly responsible for the 

harsh winter in parts of Canada and the U.S., is 

expected to slowly weaken and drift eastward 

over the next few months. All these factors 

contribute to a moderate to high probability of 

below-normal temperatures this spring. There 

is an exception for southwestern Nova Scotia, 

where above-normal sea surface temperature 

has been observed and is expected to keep air 

temperatures above-normal through the spring.

Recreation

Participation in cold-weather dependent activities 

was on the rise in December. Thick ice formed 

earlier this winter than in past years on Maine’s 

lakes, jump-starting the ice fishing season. The 

early freeze allowed the ice to be hard enough 

to hold the Sebago Lake Ice Fishing Derby for the 

first time in three years. During the week between 

Christmas and New Year’s, every cross county 

and downhill ski center in the state of Maine was 

open, which is unusual, according to the Ski Maine 

Association. However, a January thaw forced 

Crabbe Mountain in central New Brunswick to 

close for a few days, costing the ski area thousands 

of visits. While February storms brought snow to 

the ski center, they also brought power outages 

and other challenges. (See http://www.pressherald.com/

news/Ice_fishing_season_weeks_early_on_Sebago_Lake_.html)

Energy

It cost $12 million for NB Power to restore 

power in New Brunswick after winter storms 

in late December and early January. More than 

88,000 customers were without power at some 

point during this period, with some experiencing 

as many as six outages. Increased demand and 

decreased stockpiles caused the price of natural 

gas and other fuels to rise this winter, with a 

few companies seeking approval for midwinter 

rate increases. The increased demand for wood 

pellets caused a shortage in some areas. (See 

http://metronews.ca/news/canada/955454) 

Valid for March–May 2014

EC: Equal chances 

of above, near, or 

below normal

Most of the region received above-normal 

snowfall during winter. The Cape Cod area 

of Massachusetts was the snowiest part of 

the region at more than 200% of normal. 

The Maritimes and most of Maine and New 

Hampshire received near to above-normal 

snowfall as well, with departures of 90-200% of 

normal. However, western Maine and northern 

New Hampshire received below-normal snowfall, 

with departures of 75-90% of normal.

EC

Snowfall: Percent of Normal (%)

December 1, 2013–February 28, 2014