Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

September 2016

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Gulf of Maine Region

September 2016

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

htp://ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=6AABE50C-1

 Gulf of Maine Signifcant Events - June–August 2016

Precipitation Sea Surface Temperatures

Regional Climate Overview - June–August 2016

Summer sea surface temperature anomalies 

in the Gulf of Maine were warmer than the 

summer long-term average over the entre 

region. These warm anomalies were strongest 

(greater than 1.5°C, 3°F) over the deeper 

basins, especially in the western Gulf of Maine 

and on the Scotan Shelf, and weaker (less than 

1.0°C, 2°F) in shallower coastal regions and 

in the Bay of Fundy. These region-wide warm 

conditons contnue from those that were 

present in fall, winter, and spring of 2015–

2016. The warm ocean temperatures likely 

contributed to a large die-of of pufn chicks

on Machias Seal Island, which is home to the 

largest pufn colony in the Gulf of Maine.

Summer temperatures (averaged over June, 

July, and August) generally ranged from 

near normal to 2°C (4°F) above normal. 

Massachusets, southern New Hampshire, 

and parts of Maine were the warmest spots. 

June average temperatures were within 1°C 

(2°F) of normal for most of the region. July

average temperatures were generally within 

1°C (2°F) of normal in New Brunswick and 

Prince Edward Island, but ranged from near 

normal to 2°C (4°F) above normal in Nova 

Scota and the three states. August average 

temperatures ranged from near normal to 3°C 

(5°F) above normal. Eastern Massachusets 

was the warmest area. In fact, the state had its 

warmest August on record. 

Sea surface temperature anomalies based on 1985–2016. 

Mean SST anomalies from NOAA AVHRR data. Credit: 

University of Maine School of Marine Sciences and NERACOOS

Temperature

Summer precipitaton (accumulated from June 

through August) ranged from 25% of normal 

in eastern Massachusets and southwestern 

Nova Scota to 150% of normal in northeastern 

Maine. June precipitaton ranged from less 

than 25% of normal to near normal for most 

of the region. However, precipitaton in New 

Brunswick ranged from 75% of normal in 

southwestern areas to more than 200% in 

northeastern areas. July precipitaton generally 

ranged from 25% of normal to near normal for 

Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, New 

Hampshire, and Massachusets. Precipitaton 

in Maine and Nova Scota varied, generally 

ranging from 50–150% of normal. August

precipitaton ranged from 25% of normal 

in parts of Nova Scota and southeastern 

Massachusets to 175% of normal in parts of 

central New Brunswick and northern Maine.

Departure from Normal

Temperature and precipitaton normals based on 1981–2010. 

Canada and ocean precip data: Canadian Precipitaton Analysis.

U.S. precipitaton data: interpolated staton data.

Departure from Normal Percent of Normal

Heat warnings were issued in New Brunswick during 

a signifcant heat wave from July 11–16. Observed 

temperatures were above 30°C (86°F), but with the humidity, 

it felt like 35–40°C (95–104°F). Boston, MA had twelve days 

with a high of at least 32°C (90°F) in July and Concord, NH 

had ten such days, six more than average for both sites.

Boston, MA had its warmest August on record, while several 

other New England sites ranked this August among their top 

fve warmest. Summer 2016 also ranked among the top fve 

warmest on record for several sites.

Thunderstorms produced 

damaging winds and fash 

fooding during summer.

Parts of the region saw well below normal precipitaton this summer. Five Nova 

Scota sites had their second driest June on record. Boston, MA and three sites 

in southwestern Nova Scota, including Yarmouth, had their driest summers on 

record. The lack of rain contributed to drought conditons across the region. See 

the Impacts secton for more details.

Numerous severe thunderstorm events occurred in the region during summer. 

• Over 100 mm (4 in.) of rain, which is more than a month’s worth, fell in 

northeastern New Brunswick from June 7–8. This led to road closures and 

erosion in the Campbellton area. More than 150 mm (6 in.) of rain washed 

out a network of dirt and gravel roads in Somerset County, ME on June 28, 

making it difcult for home owners and emergency and fre personnel to 

access camps in the area. On June 29, more than 70 mm (2.75 in.) of rain fell 

in 2 hours, resultng in fash fooding in the Edmundston, NB area.

• On July 18, severe thunderstorms produced wind gusts of up to 145 km/h 

(90 mph), two EF-0 tornadoes, and golfall-sized (4.4 cm, 1.75 in.) hail in the 

three states. Hundreds of trees were snapped or uprooted. Thunderstorms 

on July 23–24 knocked out power for up to 28,000 customers in Nova Scota. 

Flooding severely damaged streets in Montague, PEI, and four people were 

struck by lightning in the Maritmes. An unconfrmed tornado touched down 

in Woodstock, NB on July 28, uprootng trees and damaging crops.

• A severe thunderstorm caused signifcant wind damage to eight campers 

and other structures in Tracadie-Sheila, NB on August 4. An unconfrmed 

tornado blew a large trailer of its blocks in Grand Mira, NS on August 7. 

Thunderstorm winds of up to 145 km/h (90 mph) downed dozens of trees in 

Cumberland County, ME on August 12. An EF-1 tornado damaged 39 houses 

and downed trees in Middlesex County, MA on August 22. According to the 

storm report, the trees were likely weakened by the drought.

Drought conditons intensifed in parts of 

the region during summer. See Impacts 

secton for details.

August temperatures were well above 

normal in New England. 
Regional Impacts - June–August 2016

Regional Outlook - Autumn 2016 Gulf of Maine Region Partners

Environment and Climate Change Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

NOAA Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

Northeast River Forecast Center

www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Regional Climate Services

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/rcsd

Gulf of Maine Research Insttute

www.gmri.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton System 

www.drought.gov

Cooperatve Insttute for the North Atlantc Region

www.cinar.org

Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment, Climate 

Network

www.gulfofmaine.org/climatenetwork

Northeastern Regional Associaton of Coastal and Ocean 

Systems

www.neracoos.org

University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences

www.umaine.edu/marine

Contacts

NOAA:

Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Samantha Borisof (samantha.borisof@cornell.edu)

Environment and Climate Change Canada:

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

819-997-2800 (long-distance charges apply)

enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca 

To receive this publicaton every quarter, sign up at htp://

www.gulfofmaine.org/2/climate-network-climate-outlook.

Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

September 2016 

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

htp://ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=6AABE50C-1

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature and 

Precipitation

For September through November, NOAA’s 

Climate Predicton Center and Environment 

and Climate Change Canada are calling 

for an increased chance of above-normal 

temperatures for the Gulf of Maine region. 

Both groups are forecastng equal chances of 

below-, near-, or above-normal precipitaton 

from September through November for the 

region.

ENSO

While sea surface temperatures were 

generally below average in the equatorial 

Pacifc Ocean during August, El Niño/Southern 

Oscillaton (ENSO) neutral conditons were 

observed. According to NOAA’s Climate 

Predicton Center, there is a 55–60% chance of 

ENSO-neutral conditons contnuing during fall 

and winter 2016–17. The chances of La Nina 

have decreased to around 35–40%. 

A water bomber douses the forest above the 

Seven Mile Lake fre in Annapolis County, NS 

in early August. Credit: Communicatons Nova 

Scota

The North American 

Drought Monitor 

for August shows 

moderate to extreme 

drought in parts of 

New England, Nova 

Scota, and PEI.

Summer Dryness

New England started summer with abnormally dry conditons, but ended summer with areas of 

moderate, severe, and extreme drought. It is the frst tme Massachusets and New Hampshire had 

extreme drought conditons since at least 2000, which is when U.S. Drought Monitor data began. Parts of 

Prince Edward Island (PEI) and Nova Scota were also extremely dry. Several New England waterways had 

record or near record low streamfow. Groundwater and reservoir levels were also below normal, with 

wells going dry. By late July, some Nova Scota homeowners were paying for water trucks to replenish 

their systems. Scituate, MA’s reservoir was at 21% of capacity as of August 29. Due to water shortages, 

more than 290 water systems in New Hampshire and Massachusets had restrictons in early September. 

A few reports indicated low water levels led to fsh deaths in some rivers and that it could impact river 

ecology for several years.

Crops such as corn and hay were stressed and growth was stunted. Dry conditons led to small-sized 

carrots in PEI and small-sized wild blueberries in Nova Scota. Many farmers irrigated, but water supplies 

were low or ran dry and costs were increased. Dried up pastures forced some farmers to supplement 

with hay and other winter feed. Crop losses in Massachusets for producers partcipatng in USDA Farm 

Service Agency programs exceeded $13 million as of late August. The largest losses, of over 50%, were 

hay crops. Due to drought-related crop losses, growers in eight New Hampshire and three Massachusets 

countes are eligible for federal assistance. 

Massachusets had an unusually high number of lightning strike fres during late July. Moisture in dead 

vegetaton was historically low, meaning fres could start easily and spread rapidly. In additon, fres were 

burning deeper into the ground and were taking longer than normal to suppress. The dry conditons also 

contributed to a large gypsy moth caterpillar populaton, which decimated tree foliage in Massachusets 

and heightened fre danger. In early August, New Brunswick and Nova Scota banned open-air burning 

because of a high risk of fres. For the frst tme in 15 years, Nova Scota also banned actvites in wooded 

areas of provincial parks and lands. The ban lasted for about two weeks. As of August 9, fre crews were 

batling nine fres in the province, with air quality alerts issued for some areas. It could take some forests 

hundreds of years to heal from the fres. Nova Scota had spent more than three tmes its allocated 

frefghtng budget as of mid-August. In New Brunswick, there have been 268 fres from January through 

early September compared to the average-to-date of 223 fres. 

Atlantic Hurricane Season

In early September, the remnants of Hurricane 

Hermine tracked along the U.S. East Coast and 

stalled south of New England, where it gradually 

dissipated. The storm brought gusty winds and 

large waves, but generally less than 25 mm (1 

in.) of rain to eastern Massachusets. Tree limbs 

and wires were downed, and some beaches 

received minor erosion. Through September 1, 

there were eight named tropical systems in the 

Atlantc Basin, including three hurricanes, one 

of which was a major hurricane. On average, 

there are only fve named storms, including two 

hurricanes by late August. The average date of 

the frst major hurricane is September 4.

NOAA’s updated hurricane outlook from August 

11 calls for a 70% chance of 12–17 named 

storms, with 5–8 of those becoming hurricanes, 

and 2–4 of those becoming major hurricanes. 

Those numbers are slightly higher than the 

original outlook from May. 

Drought

The U.S. Drought Outlook 

from NOAA’s Climate 

Predicton Center issued on 

September 15, 2016 calls 

for drought conditons to 

persist in New England from 

September 15–December 31. 

While drought development 

and intensifcaton become 

less likely in the fall, 

persistence was forecast due 

to the precipitaton outlook 

calling for equal chances.