Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|September 2015

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Eastern Region

September 2015

National - Signifcant Events for June–August 2015

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies 

Regional - Climate Overview for June–August 2015

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

June 1–August 31, 2015

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

June 1–August 31, 2015

U.S. Drought Monitor

September 17, 2015

June

July

Highlights for the East

Ohio had a record-wet June and another 9 states 

ranked this June among their top 10 wetest. 

Baltmore, MD, also had a record-wet June, while 

several sites set or ted records for greatest number of 

June days with measurable precipitaton. The heavy 

rain caused fooding and impacted crops in Ohio, but 

it helped keep drought conditons from worsening 

in the Northeast. However, increasing dryness in the 

Carolinas led to the development of severe drought 

by late July. In August, Woodstock, VA was record-dry 

and Bridgeport, CT had its greatest number of days 

without measurable precipitaton. With spoty rainfall, 

dry conditons expanded in the region.

The highs of 49°F on June 2 and 3 were the coolest 

highs recorded on any June day in Boston, MA. 

Conversely, Raleigh, NC, had 12 consecutve days in 

June with a high of at least 95°F, which is the site's 

longest and earliest streak on record. From July 10 to 

September 9, Central Park, NY had its longest stretch 

of consecutve days with a high of at least 80°F. 

August was a record-warm month for Caribou, ME 

and Kennedy Airport, NY. 

Severe storms produced large hail, damaging winds, 

and over 30 weak tornadoes in the region during 

summer. Heavy rains caused fooding, including a fash 

food emergency in Charleston, SC on August 18. 

Abnormal dryness expanded and moderate 

and severe drought were introduced in the 

Carolinas during June and July. This was due to 

lack of precipitaton, low streamfows, low soil 

moisture, and mountng agricultural impacts. 

Dry conditons contnued through summer, with 

water restrictons enacted in several countes in 

the Carolinas.

A very wet June eased dry conditons across 

much of the Northeast, with lingering areas of 

abnormal dryness and moderate drought in 

parts of New York and New England through 

summer. Below-normal precipitaton in August 

led to the expansion of abnormal dryness and 

moderate drought in parts of the Northeast.

The Eastern Region had its fourth wetest 

June, seeing 161% of normal precipitaton. 

Fifeen of the sixteen states were weter than 

normal, with totals ranging from 117% of 

normal in North Carolina to 230% of normal 

in Maryland. In fact, Ohio had a record-wet 

June. In July, the region saw 91% of normal 

precipitaton, with thirteen states drier than 

normal. August wrapped up at 78% of normal 

for the region. All but two states saw belownormal precipitaton. Driven by the wet June, 

summer precipitaton totaled 112% of normal 

for the region. Twelve states saw abovenormal precipitaton. 

There was a sharp temperature contrast in 

the Eastern Region during June, with average 

temperatures ranging from 3.3°F below 

normal in Maine to 3.1°F above normal in 

North Carolina. Overall, the region was 0.6°F 

above normal in June. The region was 0.1°F 

below normal in July, with thirteen of the 

sixteen states within 1°F of normal. August 

temperatures varied, with the Ohio Valley 

more than 1°F below normal, the Carolinas 

near normal, and New England more than 

2°F above normal. For the region as a whole, 

August was 0.2°F below normal. Summer 

was 0.3°F above normal for the region, with 

fourteen states within 1°F of normal.

Drought in the East

Normals based 

on 1981–2010

The contguous United States' average temperature for summer was 72.7°F, 1.3°F above the 20th 

century average. During June, the average temperature was 71.4°F, 2.9°F above average, making it 

the 2nd warmest June on record. The average temperature for July was 73.9°F, 0.2°F above average. 

August's average temperature for the U.S. was 73.0°F, 0.9°F above average. During summer, the 

contguous United States' precipitaton total was 9.14 inches, 0.82 inches above the 20th century 

average. June precipitaton was 3.53 inches, 0.60 inches above average, making it the 9th wetest June 

on record. For July, total precipitaton was 3.16 inches, 0.38 inches above average. August precipitaton 

was 2.36 inches, 0.26 inches below average. 
Regional - Impacts and Updates for June–August 2015

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|September 2015 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Autumn 2015 Eastern Region Partners

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Ofces, Atlantc

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Ofce for Coastal Management

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov

NOAA Research, Climate Program Ofce and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.research.noaa.gov

NOAA Natonal Sea Grant Ofce

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantc, South Atlantc, and Great

Lakes Regional Collaboraton Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Southeast Regional Climate Center

www.sercc.com

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton

System

www.drought.gov

Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments

www.cisa.sc.edu

Consortum on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperatve Insttute for North Atlantc Research

www.cinar.org

Eastern Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Precipitation and 

Temperature

New Tools and Resources

The Natonal Centers for Environmental 

Informaton recently released the Northwest 

Atlantc Regional Climatology, which includes 

high-resoluton quality-controlled longterm annual, seasonal, and monthly mean 

temperature and salinity felds on diferent 

depth levels. There are six decadal climatologies, 

from 1955 to 2012, and an average of all 

decades. Future updates will include oxygen, 

density, tme–depth diagrams, and model–data 

comparison.

The Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC) 

has a new website. The updated design makes 

it easier to fnd data and products and features 

more interactve elements. One of these 

products is a tme series graph of monthly state 

average temperatures (see above). This graph 

provides a visualizaton of the change in average 

temperatures over the period of record. The 

new website also features an archive of monthly 

webinars, the NRCC's frequently-updated blog, 

and a larger variety of recent climate maps. 

Valid for October–December 2015

A: Above-normal

B: Below- normal

EC: Equal chances of 

above-, near, or belownormal 

33/40: Probability of 

above- or below-normal

The Climate 

Predicton 

Center calls 

for an increased chance of above-normal 

temperatures for the entre Eastern Region 

for October through December. 

An increased chance of above-normal 

precipitaton is forecast for South Carolina 

and most of North Carolina for October 

through December, while an increased 

chance of below-normal precipitaton is 

forecast for upstate 

New York and 

northern New 

England. Equal 

chances of above-, 

near-, or belownormal precipitaton 

were forecast 

elsewhere.

According to the Climate Predicton Center's 

updated outlook, there is now a 90% chance of 

a below-normal 2015 Atlantc hurricane season. 

Including the eight named storms to date, the 

forecast calls for 6–10 named storms, with 1–4 of 

those becoming hurricanes, and 0–1 becoming 

major hurricanes. May's outlook, which had a 

70% chance of a below normal season, predicted 

6–11 names storms, with 3–6 of those becoming 

hurricanes, and 0–2 becoming major hurricanes. 

In comparison, a normal hurricane season 

averages 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 

3 major hurricanes. The increased confdence 

level, the highest since hurricane outlooks began 

in 1998, is based on a strengthening El Niño and 

cooler-than-average tropical Atlantc sea-surface 

temperatures. 

Updated 2015 Atlantic

Hurricane Season

Issued: August 6, 2015

A

33

El Niño

Atmospheric and oceanic conditons during 

August refected a strong El Niño. The Climate 

Predicton Center said there is a 95% chance

of El Niño contnuing through winter. Models 

predict one of the strongest El Niños on record, 

peaking in late fall or early winter, with impacts 

increasing during that tme. In the Eastern 

Region, those impacts include an increased 

chance of below-normal precipitaton in the Ohio 

Valley and an increased chance of above-normal 

precipitaton and below-normal temperatures 

for the Carolinas. El Niño is expected to gradually 

weaken through spring 2016.

Agriculture

Overly wet conditons in Ohio during the 

frst half of summer impacted agriculture. 

Fieldwork was slowed, with ponding in lowlying felds. Some feld crops were stunted 

and yellow, with diseases also a concern 

for growers. In additon, farmers reported 

very poor wheat quality. In the Carolinas, 

however, persistent hot and dry conditons 

were partcularly adverse for crop growth, 

including soybeans, coton, corn, and 

tobacco. Some corn was declared a loss in 

South Carolina. Poor pasture conditons in a 

few North Carolina countes forced farmers 

to feed hay to their animals earlier than 

usual, likely leading to a hay shortage this 

winter. 

Issued: September 10, 2015

A

50

33

40

EC

The Parker River in Massachusets during a March 

2010 food. Credit: Mat Collins

Climate Change and River Floods

Long-term food records in the Northeast U.S. in 

"climate-sensitve" watersheds, where land cover 

and land use have not signifcantly changed over 

the period of record, show increasing trends in 

food magnitude and frequency over the late 

20th and early 21st centuries. For example, the 

magnitude of the annual maximum food on the 

Hoosic River in New York has increased by 60%. 

Another study, though, found that climatesensitve watersheds in Atlantc Canada show 

no trends in magnitude over the same period, 

although changes in food tming and frequency

have been observed. For example, the annual 

maximum food is occurring earlier in the year 

at some watersheds in New Brunswick. But the 

past may not be a good guide to the future. 

Recent projectons for New Brunswick suggest 

precipitaton and food magnitudes may increase 

in the future with contnued warming.

USGS monthly average streamfow maps for Ohio 

in July and for the Carolinas in August.

40

33

B

40