Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

December 2017

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Gulf of Maine Region

December 2017

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

htp://ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=6AABE50C-1

 Gulf of Maine Signifcant Events - September–November 2017

Precipitation Sea Surface Temperatures

Regional Climate Overview - September–November 2017

Autumn sea surface temperature anomalies 

in the Gulf of Maine region were above the 

fall long-term average over the entre region, 

contnuing the trend of summerlike ocean 

temperatures persistng into the fall. These 

warm anomalies were strongest over the 

Scotan Shelf (around 2°C [4°F]), especially 

over the southern Scotan Shelf (greater than 

3°C [5°F]). Within the Gulf of Maine, anomalies 

were 1°–1.5°C (2°–3°F) above the long-term 

average, with the weakest anomalies in the 

near coastal waters along the Massachusets 

and New Hampshire coasts. 

There were 16 right whale deaths in 2017 

(12 in Canada and four in the U.S.) out of a 

populaton of 450. 

Autumn temperatures (averaged over 

September, October, and November) were up 

to 3°C (5°F) warmer than normal. The three 

states had their warmest autumn on record, as 

did Concord, NH. Several Maritmes sites had 

their warmest or second warmest autumn. The 

warmth led to increased tck reports in Nova 

Scota. September temperatures were up to 

4°C (7°F) above normal. The three states, and 

nine sites, ranked this September among their 

fve warmest on record. October temperatures 

were up to 5°C (9°F) above normal. The three 

states had a record warm October, and 13 sites 

had their warmest or second warmest October. 

November temperatures ranged from 2°C 

(4°F) below normal to near normal for most of 

the region except parts of central and eastern 

Nova Scota, which were up to 2°C (4°F) above 

normal.

Sea surface temperature anomalies based on 1985–2017. 

Mean SST anomalies from NOAA AVHRR data. Credit: 

University of Maine School of Marine Sciences and NERACOOS

Temperature

Autumn precipitaton (accumulated from 

September–November) ranged from 50%–150% 

of normal. September precipitaton ranged from 

25%–110% of normal for most of the region, 

except in central/eastern Nova Scota, northern 

New Brunswick, and Cape Cod, MA, which saw 

up to 175% of normal. In October, most of the 

Maritmes were much drier than normal, while 

western New Brunswick and New England were 

weter than normal. Precipitaton ranged from 

less than 25% of normal in Cape Breton, NS, 

to more than 200% of normal in New England. 

This October was among the fve driest at 

several sites in Nova Scota and P.E.I., with a few 

sites being record dry. However, in the three 

states, this October was among the ten wetest. 

November precipitaton ranged from 25% of 

normal in Nova Scota and New England to 175% 

of normal in northern New Brunswick.

Departure from Normal

Temp and precip normals based on 1981–2010 data.

Autumn Departure from Normal Autumn Percent of Normal

From November 22–23, a strong storm brought heavy rain 

and wind gusts of up to 146 km/h (91 mph) to the Maritmes, 

downing trees and causing power outages. 

The 2017 Atlantc hurricane season was extremely actve, 

with 17 named storms, 10 of which were hurricanes, and six 

of those becoming major hurricanes. Four tropical cyclones 

afected the region in autumn: Tropical Storm Jose brought 

heavy rain, strong winds, rough surf, fooding, and erosion to 

New England in mid-September, and remnant moisture from 

Maria, Nate, and Philippe enhanced rainfall totals during 

storms in late September and early and late October.

The region experienced record-setng warmth 

in September and October. The three states 

had their warmest autumn on record.

During autumn, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditons generally 

improved in New England and New Brunswick but were variable in Nova Scota and 

P.E.I. See Impacts secton for details. 

Unusually warm temperatures of up to 34°C (94°F) set dozens of records from 

September 23–27. Some Maritmes sites were within 2°C (4°F) of their all-tme 

maximum temperature records for September. Many parts of P.E.I. were hoter 

during this period than they were all year, which extended the beach season in 

the province. Concord, NH, had its latest-occurring heat wave (three or more 

consecutve days of at least 32°C [90°F]) in a calendar year. Also, Caribou, ME, did 

not record a temperature below 4°C (40°F) untl September 29, its latest on record.

Mild maximum and minimum temperatures set many records from October 8–10. 

For instance, Caribou had its warmest October minimum temperature on record 

on the 8th. From October 19–27, a prolonged warm spell with highs up to 25°C 

(77°F) resulted in new temperature records being reported almost every day in the 

Maritmes. On October 25, Caribou broke its record for warmest October minimum 

temperature that was set earlier in the month. In fact, Caribou’s three warmest 

minimum temperatures for October were all set/ted in 2017.

From October 24–26, the region received up to 214 mm (8.42 inches) of rain, with 

the greatest amounts in New Hampshire, Maine, and western New Brunswick. The 

heavy rain resulted in fooded roads. Winds up to 90 km/h (56 mph) downed trees 

and wires, causing power outages. Stormy weather and southerly winds caused 

problems for migratory birds. Another storm brought up to 132 mm (5.19 in.) of 

rain and wind gusts up to 129 km/h (80 mph) to the region from October 29–30. 

There were numerous impacts, partcularly in New England. See Impacts secton for 

details. 

With highs up to 25°C (77°F) on November 3 and 6, many records were set in the 

Maritmes. Lows down to -11°C (12°F) from November 11–13 set record lows.

Parts of the region contnued to 

experience moderate drought and 

abnormally dry conditons during fall. 

November snowfall was below 

normal across the region.

A storm from October 29–30 brought heavy 

rain and strong winds to the region, easing 

drought conditons in New England and 

causing record power outages in Maine.
Regional Impacts - September–November 2017

Regional Outlook - Winter 2017-18 Gulf of Maine Region Partners

Environment and Climate Change Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov 

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

NOAA Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

Northeast River Forecast Center

www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Regional Climate Services

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/rcsd

Gulf of Maine Research Insttute

www.gmri.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton System 

www.drought.gov

Cooperatve Insttute for the North Atlantc Region

www.cinar.org

Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment, Climate 

Network

www.gulfofmaine.org/climatenetwork

Northeastern Regional Associaton of Coastal and Ocean 

Systems

www.neracoos.org

University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences

www.umaine.edu/marine

Contacts

NOAA:

Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Samantha Borisof (samantha.borisof@cornell.edu)

Environment and Climate Change Canada:

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

819-997-2800 (long-distance charges apply)

ec.enviroinfo.ec@canada.ca 

To receive this publicaton every quarter, sign up at 

www.gulfofmaine.org/2/climate-network-climate-outlook.

Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

December 2017 

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

htp://ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=6AABE50C-1

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature and 

Precipitation As of mid- to late November, the Environment 

and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and 

NOAA’s Climate Predicton Center (CPC)

temperature outlooks favored above-normal 

December–February temperatures for the 

entre region. In New England, the increased 

chance for warmer-than-normal temperatures 

is primarily due to long-term climate trends. 

ECCC was predictng equal chances of 

below-, near-, or above-normal precipitaton 

for December–February for the Maritmes. 

CPC was forecastng an increased chance of 

above-normal precipitaton for northern New 

Hampshire and parts of western and northern 

Maine, with equal chances elsewhere in New 

England.

Probability of above-normal (A)

ECCC temperature map (lef) produced on November 30. 

CPC temperature map (right) produced on November 16.

40

Above: Forest fre east of Fredericton, 

NB, on October 23, 2017. Credit: Rick 

Fleetwood. Below: Roof damage from high 

winds during the October 29-30 storm in 

Maine. Credit: Andy Thomas.

A

La Niña

The November 2017 

North American 

Drought Monitor. 

October 29–30 Storm

A strong storm, enhanced by remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Philippe, brought high winds and heavy 

rain to the region in late October. The winds downed trees, which were stll in leaf and, in Maine, damaged 

by drought. The trees took down wires, with more than 1,400 poles snapped in Maine. Over 1 million 

customers in New England lost power, including more than 400,000 Central Maine Power customers, making 

it the “largest number of outages in the company’s history.” Some customers in Maine were without power 

for nearly a week. Heavy rain caused fash fooding in the three states. Due to debris and food damage, 

hundreds of roads in New England were closed, some for over a week. In Belfast, ME, the wind and waves 

caused several boats to break loose from their moorings. In the Maritmes, more than 10,000 customers lost 

power and ferry service was disrupted. Dozens of schools were closed across the Gulf of Maine region, with 

some already having to extend the school year farther into summer. 

Dry Conditions

In September, moderate drought and abnormal dryness persisted for much of the region. In October, 

moderate drought and abnormal dryness lingered or expanded in Nova Scota, P.E.I., and southern New 

Brunswick. Heavy rain in late October eased moderate drought in New England and western New Brunswick, 

but abnormally dry conditons remained. In additon, temperatures were above normal in September 

and October. In November, moderate drought and abnormal dryness expanded in Nova Scota and P.E.I. 

Moderate drought eased in New Brunswick but abnormal dryness lingered. Dryness also persisted in Maine. 

Dry conditons during summer and autumn contributed to decreased honey producton in New Brunswick

and Maine and reduced potato yields in P.E.I.; although, the weather allowed for a faster potato harvest. Fire 

danger was elevated in Maine and the Maritmes during fall. There were several wildfres, including three 

fres that caused poor air quality in Fredericton and southern York County, N.B. The number of forest fres in 

New Brunswick was above the 10-year (2007–2016) average as of October 30. The late October rainstorms 

eased wildfre concerns in the region. 

River fows were below normal in much of the region in September and October. A few waterways in New 

England and New Brunswick were at record or near-record low fows in mid-October. Groundwater was also 

below normal in parts of New England. In Maine, there were some reports of shallow wells going dry in 

October. Afer the late October rainstorms, river fows returned to normal or above normal for the region, 

except in P.E.I., and groundwater returned to normal in most of New England.

La Niña conditons were present in the 

equatorial Pacifc Ocean as of mid-December.

According to NOAA’s Climate Predicton Center, 

there is a greater than 80% chance that La 

Niña conditons will contnue through winter 

2017–18.

La Niña can infuence the region’s temperature 

and precipitaton paterns. However, this La 

Niña is expected to be weak to moderate, 

so its impacts may be more variable. Also, 

other paterns of climate variability such 

as the Arctc Oscillaton, the North Atlantc 

Oscillaton, and the Madden-Julian Oscillaton

may dominate the region’s weather paterns 

this winter. These paterns are less able to be 

forecast far in advance compared to La Niña, 

meaning that it is uncertain how they will 

afect the upcoming winter season. Longterm climate trends can also play a role. For 

more informaton for the Northeast U.S., see 

the Northeast Winter Climate Paterns and 

Outlook document.