Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|March 2016

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Eastern Region

March 2016

National - Signifcant Events for December 2015–February 2016

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies 

Regional - Climate Overview for December 2015–February 2016

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

December 1, 2015–February 29, 2016

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

December 1, 2015–February 29, 2016

Departure from Normal (in.)

December 1, 2015–February 29, 2016

January

Highlights for the East

The region was record warm in December, and 

North Carolina was record wet. New England had its 

warmest winter on record.

Numerous storms impacted the region during winter, 

with three of the most powerful described below.

• January 22–24: Up to 42 inches of snow and 

blizzard conditons afected the Northeast and 

Mid-Atlantc. See impacts secton for more details. 

• February 15–16: The region saw up to 22 inches 

of snow, 1/2 inch of ice, 3 inches of rain, and wind 

gusts to 81 mph. Travel problems and power 

outages were the main impacts. Carteret County, 

NC had its earliest tornado in a calendar year. 

• February 24: Seventeen tornadoes touched down 

in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and the Carolinas. The 

tornadoes damaged more than 150 buildings, 

injured dozens, and caused four fatalites. Wind 

damage and power outages were reported 

throughout the region. Baseball-sized hail, heavy 

rain, and fooding also occurred. 

North Carolina, Virginia, and Pennsylvania set their 

state records for most February tornadoes. The threestate region of Virginia and the Carolinas had their 

highest February and highest winter tornado counts 

on record. Pennsylvania had its strongest February 

tornado on record. Records date back to 1950. 

Above-normal temperatures led to belownormal snowfall for the Eastern Region in 

December. A few sites had their least snowy 

December and/or their latest frst snow. In 

January, much of New York and New England 

saw below-normal snowfall, while much of 

the Mid-Atlantc saw above-normal snowfall. 

February snowfall ranged from below-normal in 

eastern New York and northern New England to 

above-normal in areas near Lake Erie, with most 

of the region within six inches of normal. Winter 

snowfall was well below normal in much of New 

York and New England. In fact, a few sites had 

their least snowy winter on record. The MidAtlantc saw near to above-normal snowfall. 

The Eastern Region had its seventh wetest 

December on record at 151% of normal. All 

states saw above-normal precipitaton. North 

Carolina was record wet, and three other 

states had a top ten wet December. January 

precipitaton was 74% of normal, with all 

states drier than normal. Frequent storms led 

to above-normal precipitaton for all states 

in February. Four states ranked the month 

among their top ten wetest, with the region 

seeing 153% of normal. It was the ninth wetest 

winter for the region at 126% of normal. All 

states were weter than normal, with two 

states ranking the season among their top ten 

wetest. 

With all sixteen states record warm in 

December, the Eastern Region was also record 

warm at 11.9°F above normal. January was 

colder than normal in southern areas and 

warmer than normal in northern areas. Overall, 

the month was 0.5°F above normal. February 

was 1.9°F warmer than normal. The states saw 

near to above-normal temperatures, with three 

states having a top ten warm February. The six 

New England states were record warm during 

winter, while the other states ranked the season 

among their top ten warmest. The region had its 

third warmest winter on record at 4.8°F above 

normal. Winter sea surface temperatures in the 

western Atlantc Ocean were also above normal. 

Seasonal Snowfall

Normals based on 1981–2010

With an average temperature of 36.8°F, 4.6°F above the 20th century average, the contguous 

United States had its warmest winter on record. The U.S. had its warmest December on record with 

an average temperature of 38.6°F, 6.0°F above average. The average temperature for January was 

32.2°F, 2.1°F above average. February's average temperature of 39.5°F, 5.7°F above average was the 

seventh warmest on record. Winter contguous U.S. precipitaton was 8.05 inches, 1.26 inches above 

the 20th century average. The U.S. had its wetest December on record with 3.93 inches, 1.58 inches 

above average. January precipitaton was 2.03 inches, 0.28 inches below average, while February 

precipitaton was 1.93 inches, 0.20 inches below average. 

December
Regional - Impacts and Updates for December 2015–February 2016

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|March 2016 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Spring 2016 Eastern Region Partners

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Ofces, Atlantc

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Ofce for Coastal Management

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov

NOAA Research, Climate Program Ofce and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.research.noaa.gov

NOAA Natonal Sea Grant Ofce

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantc, South Atlantc, and Great

Lakes Regional Collaboraton Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Southeast Regional Climate Center

www.sercc.com

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton

System

www.drought.gov

Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments

www.cisa.sc.edu

Consortum on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperatve Insttute for North Atlantc Research

www.cinar.org

Eastern Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Precipitation and 

Temperature

A

Valid for April–June 2016

The Climate Predicton Center is forecastng an 

increased chance of above-normal temperatures 

for the region from April–June (botom lef). The 

precipitaton outlook (botom right) calls for an 

increased chance of above-normal precipitaton 

for southeastern Virginia and the Carolinas, with 

equal chances elsewhere. Signifcant wildland fre 

potental is forecast to be below normal in the 

eastern Carolinas due in part to wet conditons.

A: Above-normal

B: Below- normal

EC: Equal chances

El Niño

While sea surface temperatures in the 

equatorial Pacifc Ocean peaked in late 2015, 

atmospheric and oceanic observatons during 

February indicated that a strong El Niño event 

contnues. El Niño conditons and impacts 

will weaken during spring, with a transiton to 

ENSO-neutral conditons by early summer. An El 

Niño is frequently followed by a La Niña. Most 

computer models indicate a transiton to La Niña 

is somewhat likely by winter 2016-17. 

A B

60

40

Winter Recap

December was record warm and featured belownormal snowfall. While some golf courses saw an 

uptck in business, many ski resorts opened late 

or had limited trails open. The Mount Washington 

Auto Road in New Hampshire opened for guided 

auto tours in late December for the frst tme in 

(at least) 35 years. Transportaton departments 

contnued constructon projects longer into 

the season, as well as saved money. Home 

heatng costs were also down. Some crops were 

harvested later into the month, while other 

plants bloomed early. January temperatures were 

below normal in southern parts of the region, but 

above normal in northern areas. Many lakes in 

New England and New York were unfrozen or had 

unsafe ice conditons. The warm temperatures 

also caused maple sap to start fowing, leading 

to an early start for syrup producton. While 

February averaged out to be near to warmer 

than normal, there were large temperature 

fuctuatons during the month. February started 

warm, but Arctc air moved in mid-month. 

Three Northeast sites had their all-tme coldest 

February temperatures on record. This was 

followed by a quick warm up. For instance, 

Albany, NY, saw a 60°F temperature swing 

from February 15–16. The month also brought 

frequent storms. With a strong El Niño in place, 

winter weather paterns played out as expected. 

January Blizzard

Heavy snow and wind gusts to 75 mph caused up 

to 9 hours of blizzard conditons in the Northeast 

and Mid-Atlantc. Eight of the Northeast’s major 

climate sites had their greatest 1-day snowfall 

on January 23. Five sites received more snow on 

that one day than they normally get in an entre 

snow season. All fights at the Philadelphia and 

three Baltmore-Washington area airports were 

cancelled on the 23rd. Numerous roads were shut 

down or impassable. For instance, more than 

500 vehicles were stranded on the Pennsylvania 

Turnpike for nearly 24 hours. More than 100,000 

customers lost power, with the greatest number 

in New Jersey. The weight of the snow also 

caused some roofs to collapse. As communites 

dug out, schools were closed for up to a week. 

Several southern New Jersey and Delaware 

coastal sites saw record or near-record high

water levels, which resulted in moderate to major 

fooding. The high seas carved clifs up to 15 f. 

high in dunes. Forty of the 66 beaches surveyed 

by the New Jersey Department of Environmental 

Protecton experienced moderate to major 

erosion. Damage in Cape May County, NJ, was 

estmated at $67 million. Storm-related incidents 

claimed the lives of eight people in New Jersey. 

The storm was rated a category 4 (crippling) 

and was the sixth highest ranking storm for the 

Northeast on the Regional Snowfall Index scale.

A

EC

33

40

50

33

During the January 22–24 storm, snowfall totals 

(in.) exceeded a foot in many areas, with the 

greatest totals exceeding three feet. 

This winter, the region experienced record 

warmth, record cold, blizzards, and tornadoes. 

The picture above is of damage from one of two 

EF-3 tornadoes that touched down in Virginia on 

February 24, making them the state's strongest 

February tornadoes since 1950. (Credit: NWS AKQ). 

Spring Flood Potential

The river food potental during spring is near 

to below normal for most of Ohio and the 

Northeast and near to above normal for Virginia 

and the Carolinas. In mid-March, river levels and 

soil moisture were near to above normal, but 

snowpack and snow water equivalent were below 

normal. The increased potental in the Carolinas

is due to antecedent wet conditons, a storm 

track over the area, and increased chances of 

above-normal precipitaton. In northwest Maine, 

where snowpack and river ice lingered, the river 

food and ice jam food potental is near to above 

normal. Heavy rain can cause fooding at any tme.

Graphic: 

Internatonal 

Research Insttute 

for Climate and 

Society/NOAA

Map produced 

March 17 by 

NOAA.

#: Probability of 

above- or belownormal

Moderate Flooding