Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisoff (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|June 2015

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Eastern Region

June 2015

National - Significant Events for March–May 2015

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies 

Regional - Climate Overview for March–May 2015

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

March 1–May 31, 2015

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

March 1–May 31, 2015

U.S. Drought Monitor

June 18, 2015

March

April

Highlights for the East

Spring was generally a consistently dry season 

punctuated by periods of heavy rain. The dryness, 

combined with record to near-record warm May 

temperatures, led to moderate drought in parts of 

the Northeast. 

In March and April, river flooding and flash flooding 

led to numerous road closures, water rescues, and 

mudslides in the Ohio Valley. In mid to late April, 

ice jams caused flooding in northern Maine. 

A total of 12 tornadoes, ranging in strength from 

EF-0 to EF-2, touched down in Ohio, Pennsylvania, 

and the Carolinas during April and May. Funnel 

clouds, straight line winds, flash flooding, and large 

hail were reported throughout the region. 

On May 10, Tropical Storm Ana became the 

earliest named storm to make landfall in South 

Carolina in recorded history. The storm dumped up 

to 7 inches of rain, causing flash flooding. Kinston, 

NC, had its wettest May day on record. Waves up to 

12 feet high caused coastal flooding and erosion. 

Numerous records were set during spring. Islip, NY, 

had its snowiest March and spring on record, while 

Pittsburgh and Harrisburg, PA, had their all-time 

lowest March temperatures. Caribou, ME, had its 

all-time lowest April temperature. Multiple climate 

sites had record-warm or record-dry Mays.

Eight states started March with abnormally 

dry conditions. By month's end, twelve states 

were abnormally dry and a drought watch was 

declared for 27 Pennsylvania counties. During 

April, dryness remained in the Northeast but 

eased in Virginia and the Carolinas. Conditions 

deteriorated in May, with moderate drought 

introduced in the Northeast. Abnormal dryness 

expanded in Ohio and the Northeast, while 

dryness was reintroduced in Virginia and the 

Carolinas. While precipitation in early June 

kept much of the Northeast's drought from 

getting worse, dry conditions remained across 

the region. In fact, moderate drought was 

introduced in Ohio, West Virginia, and Virginia. 

Spring was a dry season for the Eastern Region 

at 84% of normal precipitation. Seven states 

ranked this spring among their top 16 driest. 

The region saw 83% of normal precipitation 

in March, with four states ranking this March 

among their top 12 driest. West Virginia had 

its 20th wettest March though. In April, New 

England was dry, but southern states were 

wet. In fact, West Virginia had its fourth 

wettest April. Overall, the region saw 106% of 

normal precipitation. May precipitation was 

61% of normal, making it the 14th driest May. 

Ten states ranked the month among their top 

17 driest. 

The Eastern Region's spring temperature 

averaged out to be 0.5°F above normal, with the 

Carolinas ranking this spring among their top 18 

warmest. Spring transitioned from a cold March 

to a near normal April to a mild May. March was 

3.2°F below normal, with nine states ranking the 

month among their top 20 coldest. April was 

0.3°F above normal, with South Carolina having 

its 12th warmest April. May was 4.5°F above 

normal, making it the Eastern Region's sixth 

warmest May. Connecticut, Massachusetts, New 

Hampshire, and Rhode Island had record-warm 

Mays, with another 11 states ranking this May 

among their top 20 warmest. The Northeast had 

its warmest May on record. 

Drought in the East

Normals based on 1981–2010

The contiguous United States was 2.2°F above the 20th century average during spring, making it the 11th 

warmest spring on record. March was 3.9°F above average, making it the 12th warmest March, while 

April was 2.1°F above average, making it the 17th warmest April. May was 0.6°F above average. During 

spring, the contiguous U.S. precipitation total was 1.39 inches above average, making it the 11th wettest 

spring on record. March precipitation was 0.43 inches below average, making it the 19th driest March. 

April precipitation was 0.26 inches above average, while May precipitation was 1.45 inches above average, 

making it the wettest May and wettest month of all-time. The contiguous U.S. had its 5th smallest March 

snow cover extent in the 49-year period of record and its 10th smallest April snow cover extent.
Regional - Impacts for March–May 2015

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisoff (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|June 2015 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Summer 2015 Eastern Region Partners

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Climatic Data Center

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

National Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Offices, Atlantic

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Office for Coastal Management

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov 

NOAA Research, Climate Program Office and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.research.noaa.gov

NOAA National Sea Grant Office

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantic, South Atlantic, and Great

Lakes Regional Collaboration Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Southeast Regional Climate Center

www.sercc.com

National Integrated Drought Information

System

www.drought.gov

Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments

www.cisa.sc.edu

Consortium on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperative Institute for North Atlantic Research

www.cinar.org

Eastern Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org 

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Precipitation and 

Temperature

Dry Conditions

The abundant snow that fell during winter 

had a low water content, so overall winter 

precipitation was near to below normal. 

Flood potential, however, was near to above 

normal going into spring. Cold temperatures 

early in the season allowed snow to melt 

slowly, mitigating the flood threat. Despite 

multiple storms, spring precipitation was also 

near to below normal. As a result, stream 

flows became much below normal in parts of 

the Northeast in May (see graphic to left). 

Topsoil moisture as of May 31 was rated 

short or very short in 51% of New Hampshire. 

U.S. Department of Agriculture crop reports 

indicated that plant growth was slow due to 

lack of moisture, with some farmers already 

irrigating. Other farmers halted planting until 

precipitation arrived. However, the North 

Carolina blueberry crop could be recordsetting thanks to the dry weather .

A statewide burn ban was enacted in 

Vermont for the first time in 10 years. The 

dryness contributed to numerous wildfires 

across the region. On March 31, a fire near 

Black Mountain, NC, destroyed a home 

and injured a firefighter. In early May, a fire 

burned more than 2,600 acres in Sullivan and 

Ulster counties in New York.

Delayed Spring

Cold temperatures and snow cover were 

slow to exit the region this spring, particularly 

in March and early April. The start of the 

growing season was delayed by up to a 

month. In April, the ground was too cold 

and wet to do fieldwork in many areas, 

with some fields still snow covered in New 

England. Agriculture reports indicated that a 

freeze damaged crops in Virginia and North 

Carolina. Cherry blossoms in Washington, 

DC, peaked about a week later than normal 

due in part to cold temperatures in early 

March. The harsh winter and late spring 

also contributed to above-average tree 

pollen counts, leading to a shortened but 

concentrated allergy season.

A late snowmelt in northern New England 

cut short the development period for 

amphibians that hatch in pools created by 

melted snow and need several months to 

grow legs before these pools dry up. Abovenormal snowfall likely insulated deer ticks, 

which transfer diseases to humans.

Cold water temperatures in the Gulf of 

Maine contributed to lower-than-normal 

catches in the early part of the year, leading 

to higher prices. 

Valid for July–September 2015

A: Above-normal

B: Below- normal

EC: Equal chances of 

above-, near, or belownormal 

33: Probability of aboveor below-normal

The Climate 

Prediction Center 

calls for an 

increased chance 

of above-normal temperatures for much of the 

area stretching from New England to South 

Carolina from July through September, with 

equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal 

temperatures elsewhere. 

An increased chance of below-normal 

precipitation is forecast for Virginia, the 

Carolinas, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and 

West Virginia 

for July through 

September. Equal 

chances of above-, 

near-, or belownormal precipitation 

are forecast 

elsewhere.

Monthly Average 

Streamflow (%) for

May 2015

While the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season got 

an early start with Tropical Storm Ana in early 

May, NOAA is predicting that the season will 

likely be below normal. There is a 70% chance 

of 6–11 named storms. Of the named storms, 

3–6 could become hurricanes, with 0–2 of those 

becoming major hurricanes. The main driver of 

the forecast is El Niño, which is expected to help 

suppress hurricane development. 

2015 Atlantic

Hurricane Season

Issued: May 27, 2015

El Niño

During May, ongoing and strengthening El Niño 

conditions were observed in the equatorial 

Pacific. The Climate Prediction Center says 

there is a 90% chance of El Niño continuing

through fall, with an 85% chance of it continuing 

through winter. El Niño impacts in the region 

are generally weak during summer but are more 

significant for some areas in winter. 

Endangered Species

The Gulf of Maine population of Atlantic salmon

is one of eight species identified nation-wide 

by NOAA Fisheries as most at risk of extinction

in the near future. The species exists only in a 

few waterways in Maine. Dams, climate change, 

non-native fish species, habitat destruction, and 

marine survival continue to threaten the species' 

survival. Using the NOAA Habitat Blueprint

framework, the Penobscot Bay Habitat Focus 

Area was developed in 2014 in support of Atlantic 

salmon recovery and restoration of sea-run 

migratory fish. NOAA is working with its partners 

and local communities to remove barriers to fish 

passage by removing dams, constructing fishways, 

and replacing culverts and is monitoring and 

assessing the ecological results of these efforts.

The Climate Prediction Center expects drought 

conditions to improve during summer in the 

Northeast “due to the proximity of the summer 

storm track, and the overall historical tendency 

for above-median precipitation during the 

past 10 to 15 summers.” With above-normal 

temperatures and below-normal precipitation 

predicted, drought is forecast to develop in the 

Carolinas. 

Drought

Issued: June 18, 2015

Issued: June 11, 2015

Courtesy: USGS

EC

A

33

40

B

33

40

EC