Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Northeast Region

December 2018

National Significant Events – September–November 2018 

Regional Climate Overview – September–November 2018

Temperature

Departure from Normal (°F)

September 1-November 30, 2018

Percent of Normal (%)

September 1-November 30, 2018

Northeast Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|Dec 2018

https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Contact: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

	 Samantha Borisoff (sgh58@cornell.edu)

• While Northern New York and northern New England experienced dry 

conditions during autumn, the rest of the region was exceptionally 

wet. In fact, the Northeast had its wettest autumn since 1895. Ten major 

climate sites also had a record wet autumn. 2018 is the wettest year on 

record for Baltimore, MD; Washington, D.C.; and Charleston, WV. 

• Twenty-six tornadoes touched down in the Northeast during October, 

which is very unusual. See Regional Impacts for more details. 

• The remnants of two hurricanes, Florence in September and Michael 

in October, brought heavy rain to the region. Totals from Florence were 

up to 6 inches, while Michael dumped 4-8 inches on parts of the MidAtlantic. The rain caused flooding and led to water rescues and some 

evacuations.

• An early season winter storm from November 15–16 brought rain, ice, 

and up to 18 inches of snow to the region. Newark, NJ, and Kennedy 

Airport, NY, had their greatest 1-day November snowfall. It was Central 

Park, NY, and Newark's earliest 6+ inch snowstorm. Thundersnow 

occurred in southern New England. The storm caused major travel 

disruptions and contributed to a snowier-than-normal November for many 

areas, including Kennedy Airport, which was record snowy.

• An unseasonably cold air mass settled over the Northeast for the 

Thanksgiving holiday from November 22–24. Temperatures were as 

much as 35°F below normal. These were some of the all-time coldest 

November temperatures on record for the Northeast. Six major climate 

sites had their all-time coldest November temperature on record.

Selected U.S. Significant Climate Anomalies Highlights for the Northeast

and Events for November and Autumn 2018

September

Precipitation

Autumn averaged out to be 0.3°F above normal for the 

Northeast. It was the third warmest September at 4.3°F above 

normal. Delaware, Maryland, and West Virginia were record 

warm. Elkins, WV, and Atlantic City, NJ, had their warmest 

Septembers on record. October was 0.4°F warmer than normal. 

Erie, PA, tied its all-time warmest October temperature on record. 

November was 3.9°F colder than normal, with all states being 

colder than normal.

The Northeast had a record wet autumn with 148% of normal 

precipitation. Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and West 

Virginia were record wet. It was the third wettest September with 

169% of normal precipitation. West Virginia was record wet, and 

five major climate sites had their wettest September on record 

October precipitation was 115% of normal. November precipitation 

was 161% of normal. Delaware, Maryland, and Massachusetts 

were record wet. 

Much of the East Coast was wetter than 

average for Nov. DE, MD, and MA were 

record wet.

The average autumn temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 

0.2°F above the 20th century average. Average temperatures 

for September, October, and November were 2.9°F above 

average, 0.3°F below average, and 1.6°F below average, 

respectively. It was the fourth warmest September and the third 

coldest November. Globally, it was the sixth warmest September 

and the second warmest October. The contiguous U.S. had its 

second wettest autumn with precipitation 2.73 inches average. 

September, October, and November precipitation was 1.0 inch 

above average, 1.21 inches above average, and 0.41 inches 

above average, respectively. It was the third wettest September, 

the sixth wettest October, and the third wettest November.

October
Regional Impacts and Updates – September–November 2018

Fall Conditions

Damage from an EF-2 tornado on Oct. 2 in 

Pennsylvania. Credit: NWS CLE

Northeast Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|Dec 2018

https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

A large portion of the Northeast experienced extremely wet conditions during autumn. 

One of the consequences of heavy rain in parts of Massachusetts was the discharge 

of sewage into waterways. The wet autumn also affected agriculture. Growers 

reported saturated, muddy fields, which led to harvest delays. Excess moisture led 

to mold growth and sprouting of soybeans and some corn. In central New York, there 

were prevented planting claims because fall grains could not be planted. Reports from 

central Pennsylvania noted quality issues with apples and concerns that the apples 

would rot in storage. Early season snow also affected agriculture.

However, areas such as northern New York and parts of northern New England missed 

out on the heavy precipitation. These areas experienced drought and abnormally 

dry conditions. Farmers in northern New York reported decreased hay and pasture 

production. In Aroostook County, ME, dry conditions contributed to a hay shortage and 

allowed bedstraw, an invasive plant species, to flourish, reducing the number of acres 

of hay for some farmers. Springs and private wells continued to run dry in parts of 

northern Vermont during September. One of Stowe's two primary wells was around ten 

feet lower this year (mid-September) compared to last year. Water levels at two dams 

on the Lamoille River were too low to make electricity. Companies that drill, deepen, 

or replenish wells saw increased business. The wet November helped dry conditions 

improve in these areas.

On October 2, 14 tornadoes touched down in Pennsylvania, making it the state's 

largest single-day tornado outbreak since June 2, 1998. From 1950–2017, only 

13 October tornadoes had been reported in the state. The last time the state had 

an EF-2 tornado in October was more than 25 years ago. The same storm system 

also produced three tornadoes in New York and two in Connecticut. The most recent 

October tornado in Connecticut was in 1979. The tornadoes downed hundreds of trees 

and caused structural damage. On October 20, another tornado touched down in New 

York. On October 23, storms spawned three tornadoes in Massachusetts and one 

in Rhode Island. Only 11 tornadoes had been reported since 1950 in Rhode Island, 

with only one of those being an October tornado. The tornado on the 23rd is the latest 

tornado in the calendar year for the state. For Massachusetts, there were only seven 

other October tornadoes, with the last one occurring in 1970. Tornadoes struck again 

on October 29, with one in Connecticut and one in New York.

Wet corn fields in central New York on 

September 20 (above) and December 3 (below). 

Credit: Margaret Smith and Brian Richards.

Contact: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

	 Samantha Borisoff (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Rare October Tornadoes

Regional Climate Overview – September–November 2018

The U.S. Drought Monitor released on September 6 showed 8% of the Northeast in 

a severe or moderate drought and 13% of the region as abnormally dry. These areas 

included parts of New York and New England. Much-needed rain during the month 

improved conditions slightly, except in eastern Maine and northern New York. In early 

October, 5% of the Northeast was in a moderate or severe drought and 17% of the 

region was abnormally dry. While rainfall during the month allowed dry conditions to 

slowly ease, streamflow and groundwater levels remained below normal in parts of 

northern New York and northern New England. The U.S. Drought Monitor released on 

November 1 showed 2% of the Northeast in a moderate or severe drought and 9% 

of the region as abnormally dry. Due to a wet November, drought was erased by midmonth and abnormal dryness continued to shrink. The U.S. Drought Monitor released on 

November 29 showed 4% of the Northeast as abnormally dry. In December, conditions 

generally remained unchanged, with lingering long-term abnormal dryness in northern 

New York and northern New England.

Drought in the Northeast

U.S. Drought Monitor

December 18, 2018
Temperature and Precipitation

Northeast Partners

ENSO

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration offices including:

NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental 

Information

NWS, Eastern Region

NWS, Climate Prediction Center

NWS, National Operational Hydrologic Remote 

Sensing Center

NMFS, Fisheries Science Centers and 

Regional Office, Atlantic

NOS, Office for Coastal Management

OAR, Climate Program Office and Geophysical 

Fluid Dynamics Lab

OAR, National Sea Grant Office

NOAA's North Atlantic and Great Lakes 

Regional Collaboration Teams

And the following other offices:

Northeast Regional Climate Center

National Integrated Drought Information System

Consortium of Climate Risk in the Urban 

Northeast

Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic 

Research

Northeast Region State Climatologists

Mid-Atlantic RISA

Regional Outlook – Winter 2018–19

Normal January–March average 

temperatures range from the teens in 

northern New England and northern 

New York to the 40s in southern parts of 

Delaware and Maryland. NOAA's Climate 

Prediction Center (CPC) is calling for equal 

chances of below-, near-, or above-normal 

temperatures (left map) for January–March 

for most of the Northeast. However, there 

is an increased chance of below-normal 

temperatures for parts of West Virginia.

ENSO-neutral conditions continued in November. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center 

indicates there is a 90% chance that El Niño will form and continue during winter and a 

60% chance it will continue into spring. This El Niño is expected to be weak. For more 

information on El Niño's potential impact on winter conditions, see the Northeast El Niño 

Impacts and Outlook and NOAA's Eastern Region Climate Services November webinar. 

Contact: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

	 Samantha Borisoff (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Northeast Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|Dec 2018

https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

The Fourth National Climate Assessment was released in late November. This report 

discusses climate change impacts, risks, and adaptations.There are five key messages for 

the Northeast:

1. Mild winters and the early arrival of spring are adversely affecting the economies, 

ecosystems, and environments of rural areas. Further changes are expected.

2. The economy, ecosystem services, and livelihoods of coastal communities are 

threatened by warming ocean temperatures, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. 

Adaptation to increasing climate risks will determine environmental and societal 

outcomes. 

3. Infrastructure, economies, and historic sites in the urban Northeast are being negatively 

impacted by the changing climate. These impacts are expected to become more 

common.

4. Warmer temperatures, extreme weather, sea level rise, and reduced air and water 

quality present threats to human health. These threats will vary across the region with 

individual and community demographics. 

5. Northeast communities are already planning for and adapting to climate change.

For more information, see a recording of NOAA's Eastern Region Climate Services 

December webinar. 

National Climate Assessment

For precipitation (right map), CPC favors 

an increased chance of above-normal 

precipitation for much of Maryland, all of 

Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania, 

most of New Jersey, and western Long 

Island. Equal chances were forecast for 

the rest of the region. Normal January–

March precipitation ranges from less 

than 6 inches in portions of central and 

northeastern New York to more than 13 

inches in southeastern Massachusetts and 

higher elevations of West Virginia.

The seasonal outlooks combine many 

factors including dynamical models, 

the effects of long-term trends, and soil 

moisture, in addition to past El Niño 

patterns. While the outlooks resemble 

weather patterns typically seen during El 

Niño winters, they may not match exactly.

Regional Impacts and Updates – September–November 2018

Projected shifts in dates of last spring freeze 

and first fall freeze. Source: NCA4.