Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Southern Region

December 2018

National – Significant Events for November and Autumn, 2018

Highlights for the Region

Temperatures exhibited a westto-east pattern, with cooler-thannormal temperatures in the west 

and warmer-than-normal 

temperatures in the east.

Most of the region received 

above-normal precipitation with 

the exception of northeastern 

Oklahoma, northwestern 

Arkansas, and far western Texas.

Due to the large area of abovenormal precipitation, drought 

decreased substantially across the 

entire region. The average U.S. temperature during November was 40.1°F, 1.6°F below average. The 

autumn average U.S. temperature was 53.8°F, 0.2°F above average. The November 

U.S. precipitation was 2.64 inches, 0.41 inch above average. The autumn average U.S. 

precipitation was 9.61 inches, 2.73 inches above average, the second wettest on record.

Regional – Climate Overview for June to August 2018

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Departure from Normal (°F) 

9/01/2018–11/30/2018

Overall, there was a west-toeast pattern with respect to 

temperature. The western part of 

the region experienced belownormal temperatures, while 

the eastern part of the region 

experienced above-normal 

temperatures. In general, the 

temperatures ranged between 3°F 

below normal to 3°F above normal.

Percent of Normal (%)

9/01/2018–11/30/2018

Autumn precipitation varied 

spatially throughout the region, but 

tended to be above normal. Parts 

of central and southwestern Texas 

received 300 percent or more of 

normal precipitation. In contrast, 

areas of northwestern Oklahoma, 

northeastern Arkansas, and far 

western Texas received 70 percent 

or less of normal precipitation.

Streamflows

November average streamflow 

versus historical streamflow

The above figure illustrates 

November average streamflows 

in the Texas Gulf and Lower 

Mississippi Basins as compared to 

historical streamflows. Streamflows 

in Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, 

Mississippi, and coastal Texas are 

normal or above normal. Texas 

streamflows further inland are 

much above normal.

Southern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | December 2018

https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Contact: Derek Thompson (dthompson@srcc.lsu.edu)
Regional Impacts — For September to November 2018

Extreme Precipitation and Drought

This autumn, the Southern Region was exposed to above-normal precipitation extremes, with every state 

experiencing precipitation events with totals at least 150 percent above normal. In September, areas in 

northern, northeastern, eastern, southern, and western Texas received precipitation 400–800 percent above 

normal, with a small part of southwestern Texas receiving precipitation 800 percent or more above normal. In 

October, central, eastern, southwestern, western, and northern Texas as well as western Oklahoma received 

precipitation 300 percent or more above normal. As a result, Texas experienced its wettest September and 

October on record; Tennessee experienced its 3rd wettest September on record; Louisiana and Mississippi 

experienced their 10th wettest September on record; Oklahoma experienced its 7th wettest October 

on record; and the region as a whole experienced its 3rd wettest September on record (1895–2018). In 

November, northeastern and southeastern Louisiana, southeastern Texas, and western Mississippi received 

precipitation 200–300 percent or more above normal. Alongside these extreme precipitation events, drought 

improved across the region. When August transitioned to September, almost 60 percent of the region was 

experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions. At the end of November, roughly 5 percent of the region was 

experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions.

Above: Percent of normal precipitation in September (left), in October (middle), and November drought conditions (right).

CPC –Three-Month Outlook

Temperature Precipitation

Outlook for January to March

A = Above-normal temperatures EC = Equal chances 

B = Below-normal rainfall N = Normal

According to the Climate Prediction Center, much of the region has 

equal chances of experiencing above-normal, below-normal, or normal 

temperatures. Far western Texas has a chance of experiencing abovenormal temperatures while northeastern Mississippi and most of 

Tennessee has a chance of experiencing below-normal temperatures.

Precipitation is projected to be above normal for most of Texas and 

Louisiana as well as central and southern Mississippi and central and 

western Oklahoma, with chances increasing to the south and west. 

Northwestern and western Tennessee has a chance of receiving belownormal precipitation. 

El Niño Outlook

NOAA’s Climate Prediction 

Center is calling for a 90 percent 

chance of El Niño developing 

during the winter, with a 60 

percent chance that El Niño 

conditions continue through spring. 

The winter precipitation outlook 

follows an El Niño pattern while 

temperature does not.

Gulf Regional Partners

Contact: Derek Thompson (dthompson@srcc.lsu.edu)

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Southern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | December 2018 

https://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Earth Scan Laboratory at Louisiana State 

University (esl.lsu.edu)

NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center 

(cpc.noaa.gov)

NOAA/NOS Gulf of Mexico Coastal Services 

Center (csc.noaa.gov)

NOAA Gulf of Mexico Collaboration Team 

(regions.noaa.gov)

NOAA/NESDIS National Centers for 

Environmental Information (ncei.noaa.gov)

NOAA/NWS Southern Region (srh.noaa.gov)

Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program 

(southernclimate.org)

Southern Regional Climate Center

(srcc.lsu.edu)