U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE

30–319PDF WASHINGTON : 2018

SURVEYING THE SPACE WEATHER LANDSCAPE 

JOINT HEARING 

BEFORE THE

SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT & 

SUBCOMMITTEE ON SPACE 

COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND 

TECHNOLOGY 

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 

ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS 

SECOND SESSION 

April 26, 2018 

Serial No. 115–56 

Printed for the use of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology 

( 

Available via the World Wide Web: http://science.house.gov 
(II) 

COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 

HON. LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas, Chair 

FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma 

DANA ROHRABACHER, California 

MO BROOKS, Alabama 

RANDY HULTGREN, Illinois 

BILL POSEY, Florida 

THOMAS MASSIE, Kentucky 

RANDY K. WEBER, Texas 

STEPHEN KNIGHT, California 

BRIAN BABIN, Texas 

BARBARA COMSTOCK, Virginia 

BARRY LOUDERMILK, Georgia 

RALPH LEE ABRAHAM, Louisiana 

DANIEL WEBSTER, Florida 

JIM BANKS, Indiana 

ANDY BIGGS, Arizona 

ROGER W. MARSHALL, Kansas 

NEAL P. DUNN, Florida 

CLAY HIGGINS, Louisiana 

RALPH NORMAN, South Carolina 

EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas 

ZOE LOFGREN, California 

DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois 

SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon 

AMI BERA, California 

ELIZABETH H. ESTY, Connecticut 

MARC A. VEASEY, Texas 

DONALD S. BEYER, JR., Virginia 

JACKY ROSEN, Nevada 

CONOR LAMB, Pennsylvania 

JERRY MCNERNEY, California 

ED PERLMUTTER, Colorado 

PAUL TONKO, New York 

BILL FOSTER, Illinois 

MARK TAKANO, California 

COLLEEN HANABUSA, Hawaii 

CHARLIE CRIST, Florida 

SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT

HON. ANDY BIGGS, Arizona, Chair 

DANA ROHRABACHER, California 

BILL POSEY, Florida 

MO BROOKS, Alabama 

RANDY K. WEBER, Texas 

BRIAN BABIN, Texas 

BARRY LOUDERMILK, Georgia 

JIM BANKS, Indiana 

CLAY HIGGINS, Louisiana 

RALPH NORMAN, South Carolina 

LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas 

SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon, Ranking 

Member 

COLLEEN HANABUSA, Hawaii 

CHARLIE CRIST, Florida 

EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas 

SUBCOMMITTEE ON SPACE

HON. BRIAN BABIN, Texas, Chair 

DANA ROHRABACHER, California 

FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma 

MO BROOKS, Alabama 

BILL POSEY, Florida 

STEPHEN KNIGHT, California 

BARBARA COMSTOCK, Virginia 

RALPH LEE ABRAHAM, Louisiana 

DANIEL WEBSTER, Florida 

JIM BANKS, Indiana 

ANDY BIGGS, Arizona 

NEAL P. DUNN, Florida 

CLAY HIGGINS, Louisiana 

LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas 

AMI BERA, California, Ranking Member 

ZOE LOFGREN, California 

DONALD S. BEYER, JR., Virginia 

MARC A. VEASEY, Texas 

DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois 

ED PERLMUTTER, Colorado 

CHARLIE CRIST, Florida 

BILL FOSTER, Illinois 

EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas 
(III) 

C O N T E N T S 

April 26, 2018 

Page 

Witness List ............................................................................................................. 2 

Hearing Charter ...................................................................................................... 3 

Opening Statements 

Statement by Representative Andy Biggs, Chairman, Subcommittee on Environment, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of 

Representatives .................................................................................................... 4 

Written Statement ............................................................................................ 6 

Statement by Representative Suzanne Bonamic, Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Environment, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, 

U.S. House of Representatives ............................................................................ 8 

Written Statement ............................................................................................ 9 

Statement by Representative Brian Babin, Chairman, Subcommittee on 

Space, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives ........................................................................................................... 10 

Written Statement ............................................................................................ 12 

Statement by Representative Ami Bera, Ranking Member, Subcommittee on 

Space, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives ........................................................................................................... 14 

Written Statement ............................................................................................ 16 

Statement by Representative Lamar Smith, Chairman, Committee on Science, 

Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives .................................... 18 

Written Statement ............................................................................................ 20 

Statement by Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson, Ranking Member, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives .... 22 

Written Statement ............................................................................................ 24 

Witnesses: 

Dr. Neil Jacobs, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental Observation and Prediction, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 27 

Written Statement ............................................................................................ 29 

Dr. Jim Spann, Chief Scientist, Heliophysics Division, Science Mission Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 36 

Written Statement ............................................................................................ 38 

Dr. Sarah Gibson, Senior Scientist, High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research and Co-Chair, Committee on Solar and Space 

Physics, National Academy of Science 

Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 42 

Written Statement ............................................................................................ 44 

Dr. W. Kent Tobiska, President and Chief Scientist, Space Environment Technologies 

Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 58 

Written Statement ............................................................................................ 60 

Discussion ................................................................................................................. 78 
Page

IV 

Appendix I: Answers to Post-Hearing Questions 

Dr. Neil Jacobs, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental Observation and Prediction, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ....... 124 

Dr. Jim Spann, Chief Scientist, Heliophysics Division, Science Mission Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration .................................. 127 

Dr. Sarah Gibson, Senior Scientist, High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research and Co-Chair, Committee on Solar and Space 

Physics, National Academy of Science ............................................................... 129 

Dr. W. Kent Tobiska, President and Chief Scientist, Space Environment Technologies ................................................................................................................. 137 
(1) 

SURVEYING THE SPACE WEATHER 

LANDSCAPE 

THURSDAY, APRIL 26, 2018 

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 

SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT AND

SUBCOMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, 

COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY, 

Washington, D.C. 

The Subcommittees met, pursuant to call, at 10:01 a.m., in Room 

2318 of the Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Andy Biggs 

[Chairman of the Subcommittee on Environment] presiding. 
2 

LAMAR S. SMITH, Te-xas 

CHAIRMAN 

EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas 

RANKING MEMBER 

Q:ongrcss of the tinitcd ~tatcs 

itou.sc of 1Rcprcscntatincs 

COMMITIEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 

2321 RAYBURN HousE OFFICE BUILDING 

WASHINGTON, DC 20515-6301 

(202) 225-6371 

www.scienca.housa.gov 

Surveying the Space Weather Landscape 

Thm·sday, April26, 2018 

10:00 a.m. 

2318 Rayburn House Office Building 

Witnesses 

Dr. Neil Jacobs, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental 

Observation and Prediction, National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration 

Dr. Jim Spann, Chief Scientist, Heliophysics Division, Science Mission 

Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

Dr. Sarah Gibson, Senior Scientist, High Altitude Observatory, National 

Center for Atmospheric Research and Co-Chair, Committee on Solar and 

Space Physics, National Academy of Science 

Dr. W. Kent Tobiska, President and Chief Scientist, Space Environment 

Technologies 
3 

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 

COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 

HEARING CHARTER 

Wednesday, April25, 2018 

TO: Members, Subcommittee on Environment, Subcommittee on Space 

FROM: Majority Staff, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology 

SUBJECT: Joint Subcommittee Hearing: "Surveying the Space Weather Landscape" 

The Subcommittees on Environment and Space will hold a joint hearing Surveying the 

Space Weather Landscape on Thursday, April26, 2018, at 10:00 a.m. in Room 2318 of the 

Rayburn House Office Building. 

Hearing Purpose: 

The purpose of the hearing is to gain a better understanding of the current actions on 

space weather from the relevant stakeholders involved in these matters. 

Witness List 

• Dr. Neil Jacobs, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental Observation and 

Prediction, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

• Dr. Jim Spann, Chief Scientist, Heliophysics Division, Science Mission Directorate, 

National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

• Dr. Sarah Gibson, Senior Scientist, High Altitude Observatory, National Center for 

Atmospheric Research and Co-Chair, Committee on Solar and Space Physics, National 

Academy of Science 

• Dr. W. Kent Tobiska, President and Chief Scientist, Space Environment Technologies 

Staff Contact 

For questions related to the hearing, please contact Majority Staff at 202-225-6371. 
4 

Chairman BIGGS. The Subcommittee on Environment and Space 

will come to order. And without objection, the Chair is authorized 

to declare recesses of the Subcommittee at any time. 

Welcome to today’s hearing entitled ‘‘Surveying the Space Weather Landscape.’’ I now recognize myself for five minutes for an opening statement. 

And I welcome you again to this important subcommittee hearing 

of the Environment Subommittee and the Space Subcommittee as 

well entitled ‘‘Surveying the Space Weather Landscape.’’ And first, 

I thank each Member of this panel here today. We have excellent 

witnesses, and I’m excited to hear their testimony on this important topic. 

With an issue as complex and consequential as this one, it is important that we begin a dialogue on where we are and where we 

are going. There are many exciting developments in space weather, 

from innovative space weather technologies and the accuracy of 

space weather forecasting models, to the potential impacts space 

weather can have on our terrestrial environment. 

All of these topics are important and worth addressing, but I 

think it’s crucial that we first lay the groundwork for understanding the current policies, procedures, and major players in both 

the private and public sectors. And I’m pleased to have key stakeholders from private industry, as well as academia, along with 

leaders from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

(NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

(NASA) with us today. I look forward to hearing from them about 

not only what their efforts have been in this arena, but also what 

they think the future holds for the observation, modeling, and forecasting of space weather events. 

Just as it is a primary driver of weather on Earth, the Sun is 

also the largest driver of disturbances in our space environment. 

Solar winds, whose charge and intensity ebbs and flows with various solar phenomena, interact with Earth’s magnetic field in interesting and sometimes highly adverse ways. The result of these 

interactions are what we refer to as space weather storms. While 

often relegated to the magnetosphere, these storms can and do 

have tangible and sometimes highly damaging effects in the upper 

atmosphere and at the terrestrial level. These can range from 

issues with the performance and reliability of space-borne and 

ground-based technological systems, all the way to endangering 

human life or health. 

As with terrestrial weather, without thorough monitoring and accurate modeling, we simply have no good way to predict space 

weather events and, in turn, no ability to ensure that citizens are 

kept out of harm’s way if severe events arise. In the federal government, NASA and NOAA are tasked with monitoring and issuing 

forecasts that inform the public. To make these forecasts, countless 

dollars are spent on observation and data collection, but despite 

this, space weather science as a discipline is still in its nascent 

phase. 

While I have no doubt that NASA and NOAA play a vital role 

in monitoring solar phenomena and making space weather forecasts, we need to explore whether it makes sense to rely solely on 

government for addressing space weather challenges. In the 21st 
5 

century, the landscape has changed, and as we can see from our 

witnesses today, the federal government isn’t the only game in 

town, nor should it be. 

Forecasting space weather depends on understanding the fundamental processes that give rise to hazardous events. Particularly 

important is the study of processes that link the Sun-Earth system 

and that control the flow of energy toward our planet. Partners in 

the private sector can and should use their advanced, innovative 

technologies to help us more thoroughly understand these phenomena and improve our space weather predictions. In the face of 

space weather challenges, instead of continuing to think inside the 

‘‘government-only’’ box, NASA and NOAA need to look to private 

partners who are ready and willing to help. 

Last year, President Trump signed into law the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, a comprehensive bill to increase our weather forecasting capabilities to better protect lives 

and property. What I like most about this legislation is that it requires personnel within government agencies to innovate by 

partnering with the growing private sectors in testing and validating its data in order to enhance our nation’s forecasting capacity 

and capabilities. It is my hope that, on the subject of space weather, we will continue to look to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act as a model. 

Adverse space weather presents unique challenges, and the consequences of inaction could be far-reaching and catastrophic. However, I believe that through the right combination of government 

monitoring, private industry innovation, and good old American determination, we will be able to respond to any future challenges 

that may arise. I look forward to learning more today from our excellent panel of witnesses about this topic, about their efforts to advance understanding in this field, and about the technologies and 

methods that will lead the way to a better and smarter future. 

And with that, I yield back the balance of my time. 

[The prepared statement of Chairman Biggs follows:] 
6 

COMMITTE[ ON 

SCIENCE, SPACE, & TECHNOLOGY Lamar Smith, Chairman 

For Immediate Release 

April 26. 2018 

Media Contacts: Thea McDonald, Brandon VerVelde 

1202)225-6371 

Statement by Chairman Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) 

Surveying the Space Weather Landscape 

Chairman Biggs: Good morning, and welcome to today's joint Environment and Space 

Subcommittee hearing, entitled "Surveying the Space Weather Landscape." I would like to 

first thank our excellent witnesses for being here today and for testifying on this important 

topic. 

With an issue as complex and consequential as this one, it is undeniably important we begin 

a dialogue on what the status quo is and in what direction momentum is heading. There are 

many avenues we could explore for this hearing. from innovative space weather 

technologies and the accuracy of space weather forecasting models, to the potential 

impacts space weather can have on our terrestrial environment. While all of these topics are 

important and worth addressing, I think it is crucial that we first lay the groundwork for 

understanding the current policies, procedures and major players in both the private and 

public sectors. 

I am glad, then. to have key stakeholders from private industry as well as academia. along 

with leaders from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the 

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) with us here. I look forward to 

hearing from them about not only what their efforts have been in this arena. but also what 

they think the future holds for the observation, modeling and forecasting of space weather 

events. 

Just as it is a primary driver of weather on Earth, the sun is also the largest driver of 

disturbances in our space environment. Solar winds, whose charge and intensity ebbs and 

flows with various solar phenomena, interact with Earth's magnetic field or magnetosphere 

in interesting and sometimes highly adverse ways. The result of these interactions are what 

we refer to as space weather storms. While often relegated to the magnetosphere. these 

storms can and do have tangible - and sometimes highly damaging- effects in the upper 

atmosphere and at the terrestrial level. These con range from issues with the performance 

and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems. all the way to 

endangering human life or health. 

As with terrestrial weather. without thorough monitoring and accurate modeling, we simply 

have no good way to predict space weather events and. in turn. no ability to ensure that 

citizens ore kept out of harm's way if severe events arise. In the federal government. NASA 

and NOAA are tasked with monitoring and issuing forecasts that inform the public. To make 

these forecasts. countless dollars are spent on observation and data collection, but despite 

this. space weather science, as a discipline. is still in its nascent phase. 
7 

While I certainly have no doubt that NASA and NOAA play a vital role in monitoring solar 

phenomena and making space weather forecasts, one of the questions we need to explore 

in this hearing is whether it makes sense to rely on government alone for addressing space 

weather challenges. In the twenty-first century. the landscape has changed, and as we can 

see from our witnesses today, the federal government isn't the only game in town nor, I 

would argue, should it be. 

Forecasting space weather depends on understanding the fundamental processes that give 

rise to hazardous events. Particularly important is the study of processes that link the SunEarth system and that control the flow of energy toward our planet. Partners in the private 

sector can - and should - use their advanced and innovative technologies to help us more 

thoroughly understand these phenomena and improve our space weather predictions. In 

the face of space weather challenges, instead of continuing to think inside the 

"government-only" box, NASA and NOAA need to look to private partners who are ready 

and willing to help. 

Last year, President Trump signed into law the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation 

Act, a comprehensive bill to increase our weather forecasting capabilities to better protect 

lives and property. What I like most about this legislation is that it compels the government to 

innovate by partnering with the growing private sector to test and validate its data in order 

to enhance our nation's forecasting capabilities.lt is my hope that, on the subject of space 

weather, we will continue to look to that law as a model. 

Adverse space weather presents unique challenges, and the consequences of inaction 

could be far-reaching and catastrophic. However, I believe that through the right 

combination of government monitoring, private industry innovation and good old American 

determination, we will be able to respond to any future challenges that may arise. I look 

forward to learning more today from our witnesses about this topic, about their efforts to 

advance understanding in this field and about the technologies and methods that will lead 

the way to a better and smarter future. 

### 
8 

Chairman BIGGS. I now recognize the gentleman from Colorado 

sitting in for the Ranking Member of the Environment Subcommittee, Mr. Perlmutter, for an opening statement. 

Mr. PERLMUTTER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and I’d also like to 

thank Chairman Smith for convening today’s hearing. I’d also like 

to thank each of our witnesses because we have an excellent panel 

to talk to us today about space weather, and I’d especially like to 

thank two of my friends, Colorado Buffaloes Dr. Gibson and Dr. 

Tobiska, for joining us today. 

I’ve been interested in space weather for a number of years. Colorado has some of the best minds, laboratories, and research institutions on space weather in the country. We have institutions like 

CU Boulder and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, as 

well as NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. That is why 

Senator Cory Gardner from Colorado worked with Senator Gary 

Peters from Michigan to pass the Space Weather Research and 

Forecasting Act in the Senate, and it’s why I’ve been encouraging 

this committee to support this legislation and be active on the 

space weather needs of the academic and research community. 

We talk frequently about space weather as a catastrophic event, 

and it can be. A Carrington-level event, which more or less shut 

down electrical grids and communications all over the place, or the 

2012 event, which shut down Qu ́ ebec’s power grid, are worthy of 

our attention. But what I’ve learned is that space weather is a 

daily phenomenon which impacts our electrical grid, our airlines 

flying over the poles, precision agriculture, and much more. 

It is clear there is significant economic consequence to our lack 

of knowledge and prediction of space weather. That’s why I’ve proposed H.R. 3086, the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act. 

It will build upon the success of the National Space Weather Strategy and the National Space Weather Action Plan to better incorporate academic, commercial, and international partners into our 

space weather enterprise. 

I look forward to your testimony today and the discussion so that 

we can educate ourselves and work with the academic and commercial industries to build on the successes of the last several years 

and remain focused on improving space weather research and forecasting. 

[The prepared statement of Mr. Perlmutter follows:] 
9 

OPENING STATEMENT 

Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-CO) 

House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology 

Subcommittee on Environment 

Subcommittee on Space 

"Surveying the Space Weather Landscape" 

April26, 2018 

Thank you, Mr. Chainnan, and I'd also like to thank Chainnan Smith for convening today's 

hearing. 

I'd also like to thank each of our witnesses because we have an excellent panel to talk to us today 

about space weather, and I'd especially like to thank two of my friends, Colorado Buffaloes Dr. 

Gibson and Dr. Tobiska, for joining us today. 

I've been interested in space weather for a number of years. Colorado has some of the best minds, 

laboratories, and research institutions on space weather in the country. We have institutions like 

CU Boulder and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, as well as NOAA's Space Weather 

Prediction Center. That is why Senator Cory Gardner from Colorado worked with Senator Gary 

Peters from Michigan to pass the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act in the Senate, and 

it's why I've been encouraging this committee to support this legislation and be active on the space 

weather needs of the academic and research community. 

We talk frequently about space weather as a catastrophic event, and it can be. A Carrington-level 

event, which more or less shut down electrical grids and communications all over the place, or the 

2012 event, which shut down Quebec's power grid, are worthy of our attention. But what I've 

learned is that space weather is a daily phenomenon which impacts our electrical grid, our airlines 

flying over the poles, precision agriculture, and much more. 

It is clear there is significant economic consequence to our lack of knowledge and prediction of 

space weather. That's why I've proposed H.R. 3086, the Space Weather Research and Forecasting 

Act. It will build upon the success of the National Space Weather Strategy and the National Space 

Weather Action Plan to better incorporate academic, commercial, and international partners into 

our space weather enterprise. 

I look forward to your testimony today and the discussion so that we can educate ourselves and 

work with the academic and commercial industries to build on the successes of the last several 

years and remain focused on improving space weather research and forecasting. 
10 

Mr. PERLMUTTER. And if I might, Mr. Chair, I’d like to introduce 

the newest member of our committee. 

Chairman BIGGS. Please. 

Mr. PERLMUTTER. So I’d like to introduce Conor Lamb. You can 

stand up and take a bow. 

Conor was sworn in on April 12—— 

Mr. LAMB. Twirl around, too—— 

Mr. PERLMUTTER. No, no, it’s—2018 to represent Pennsylvania’s 

18th Congressional District, which includes parts of Allegheny, 

Westmoreland, Washington, and Greene Counties in southwestern 

Pennsylvania. And I took some time to encourage Conor to join this 

committee because there are places where we have—lots of places 

where we have common ground and we work together, we collaborate to advance science. There are places where we have spirited 

disagreements, and so we really do welcome you. 

And I should alert my Republican friends that Conor previously 

served as an Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Justice Department’s 

Pittsburgh office, where he prosecuted violent crimes and drug trafficking and helped establish the office as a national leader in the 

fight against the heroin epidemic. So we wanted to bring somebody 

aboard who also could argue if necessary. 

Lamb served on active duty in the United States Marine Corps 

from 2009 to 2013 and continues to serve as a Major in the United 

States Marine Corps Reserves. Conor lives in Mount Lebanon, 

where he grew up. He is a graduate of Pittsburgh Central Catholic 

High School and went to college and law school at the University 

of Pennsylvania. 2006 is when he graduated undergrad and 2009 

from law school. 

So I’d like to welcome Conor Lamb to the Committee, and I know 

the rest of the Committee will welcome him, too. 

Chairman BIGGS. Indeed, welcome, Representative Lamb. Glad to 

have you on the Committee. 

Mr. LAMB. Still learning how these work. Thank you very much, 

Mr. Chairman. 

Chairman BIGGS. Thank you. 

Mr. LAMB. You’re welcome. 

Chairman BIGGS. And now, I recognize the Chairman of the 

Space Subcommittee, the gentleman from Texas, Mr. Babin, for an 

opening statement. 

Mr. BABIN. Yes, sir. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And I also would 

like to welcome Mr. Lamb to our committee. We have a great committee here, and we’re quite bipartisan on many, many issues, although, as Mr. Perlmutter said, sometimes it does get heated on 

certain issues. But welcome. 

Mr. LAMB. Thank you. 

Mr. BABIN. Mr. Chairman, thank you for the opportunity to conduct this joint hearing. I look forward to the testimony of our witnesses. Specifically, I am interested to hear their insights and observations from the recent Space Weather Workshop in Colorado. 

Understanding and predicting space weather is critical to protecting American infrastructure and human safety both in space 

and on the ground. 

While government agencies have made steady advances in this 

area, we must now explore ways to expand our capabilities and 
11 

begin leveraging the private sector. As we begin preparations for 

space exploration outside the protection of Earth’s magnetosphere, 

the Space Subcommittee is keenly aware that understanding and 

predicting space weather is more important than ever for the safety 

of our astronauts and the achievement of our exploration goals. 

Perhaps even more tangible are the effects of space weather here 

on Earth. And while space weather can give us some of the most 

beautiful sights on Earth—the aurora borealis, or the northern 

lights—there are also many negative effects of space weather that 

often go unseen. Strong space weather events can knock out electrical grids, corrode pipelines and disrupt satellite communications. 

Many, including the brave men and women serving our country, 

rely on critical information gathered by in-space infrastructure like 

GPS and remote sensing. These space-based assets are particularly 

vulnerable to the effects of space weather. 

It is time to develop a plan to protect ourselves from these 

events. NASA’s continued research and development of space 

weather satellites will provide more advanced American capabilities. That, combined with NOAA’s work in data analysis and space 

weather prediction, comprise a strong government effort. However, 

the progress does not come without cost, which is why we must 

look to the private industry moving forward. 

The Deep Space Climate Observatory, also known as DSCOVR, 

is a good example for defining roles and responsibilities. DSCOVR, 

built by NASA, is NOAA’s first operational satellite in deep space, 

orbiting a million miles from Earth in order to provide early warnings of potentially harmful space weather. This NOAA operational 

capability for space weather analysis and prediction was established through the technology transition of unique scientific instruments researched and developed by NASA. I contend this model 

represents the way forward for interagency space weather activities. 

As the private sector continues to move into low-Earth orbit, 

more and more companies will be relying on space weather predictions to protect their assets. Space weather is another area of 

great commercial opportunity in space, and, as we have in the past, 

we must continue to encourage and leverage these private endeavors for the benefit of all Americans. The threats posed by space 

weather events can be mitigated through advanced research and 

prediction methods. I hope that this hearing today will shed light 

on our current space weather projects and how we can continue 

achieving American excellence in such a very critical area. 

I want to thank our witnesses for being here today, for their testimony, and I’m looking forward to the discussion and hearing— 

and shedding some light on this issue. 

I yield back. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

[The prepared statement of Mr. Babin follows:] 
12 

COMMiJTE[ m~ 

SCIENCE, SPACE, & TECHNOLOGY Lamar Smith, Chairman 

For Immediate Release 

April 26, 2018 

Media Contacts: Thea McDonald, Brandon VerVelde 

(202) 225-6371 

Statement by Chairman Brian Babin (R-Texas) 

Surveying the Space Weather Landscape 

Chairman Babin: Mr, Chairman, thank you for the opportunity to conduct this joint hearing, 

and I look forward to the testimony of our witnesses. Specifically. I am interested to hear their 

insights and observations from the recent Space Weather Workshop in Colorado. 

Understanding and predicting space weather is critical to protecting American infrastructure 

and human safety both in space and on the ground. While government agencies have 

made steady advances in this area, we must now explore ways to expand our capabilities 

and begin leveraging the private sector. 

As we begin preparations for space exploration outside the protection of Earth's 

magnetosphere, the Space Subcommittee is keenly aware that understanding and 

predicting space weather is more important than ever for the safety of our astronauts and 

the achievement of our exploration goals. 

Perhaps even more tangible, are the effects of space weather here on Earth. While space 

weather can give us some of the most beautiful sights on Earth, the aurora borealis, or the 

northern lights, there are also many negative effects of space weather that often go unseen. 

Strong space weather events can knock out electrical grids, corrode pipelines and disrupt 

satellite communications. 

Many, including the brave men and women serving our country, rely on critical information 

gathered by in-space infrastructure like GPS and remote sensing. These space-based assets 

are particularly vulnerable to the effects of space weather. 

It is time to develop a plan to protect ourselves from these events. NASA's continued 

research and development of space weather satellites will provide more advanced 

American capabilities. That, combined with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration's {NOAA) work in data analysis and space weather prediction, comprise a 

strong government effort. However, progress does not come without cost. Which is why we 

must look to the private industry moving forward. 

The Deep Space Climate Observatory, also known as DSCOVR, is a good example for 

defining roles and responsibilities. DSCOVR- built by NASA- is NOAA's first operational 

satellite in deep space, orbiting a million miles from Earth in order to provide early warnings 

of potentially harmful space weather. This NOAA operational capability for space weather 

analysis and prediction was established through the technology transition of unique scientific 
13 

instruments researched and developed by NASA. I contend this model represents the way 

forward for interagency space weather activities. 

As the private sector continues its move into low-Earth orbit, more and more companies will 

be relying on space weather predictions to protect their assets. Space weather is another 

area of great commercial opportunity in space, and. as we have in the past. we must 

continue to encourage and leverage these private endeavors for the benefit of all 

Americans. 

The threats posed by space weather events can be mitigated through advanced research 

and prediction methods. I hope this hearing today will shed light on our current space 

weather projects and how we can continue achieving American excellence in such a 

critical area. 

I thank our witnesses today for their testimony and look forward to this discussion. 

### 
14 

Chairman BIGGS. Thank you, Mr. Babin. 

I now recognize the Ranking Member of the Space Subcommittee, 

the gentleman from California, Mr. Bera, for an opening statement. 

Mr. BERA. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And I want to welcome the 

witnesses and add my welcome to our colleague from Pennsylvania, 

Mr. Lamb. I think Conor is going to find that this is one of the best 

committees to be on in the sense of the topics that we’re talking 

about. And I think if there were Neilson ratings for C–SPAN committee viewership, I think we would be at the top of that because 

the riveting topics that we talk about, habitable planets, how we’re 

going to deep space, as Mr. Perlmutter would say—let me get that 

out there—how we go to Mars by 2033. And today’s topic is no different, you know, the importance of understanding and forecasting 

space weather. 

I mean, as we think about, you know, how dependent—our communications, our electrical ability, our navigational systems are on, 

you know, on space weather and how vulnerable they are, it becomes increasingly important. And we know NASA’s research and 

observations in solar and space physics has been instrumental in 

achieving our current capabilities for space weather monitoring and 

prediction. The Advanced Composition Explorer and the joint European Space Agency/NASA mission, both launched over 20 years 

ago, along with other NASA spacecrafts such as STEREO and the 

Solar Dynamics Observatory provide critical information in forecasting solar eruptions and their movement through the 

heliosphere. 

That said, it’s also important for us to understand that we’re 

only at the early stages of our ability to predict and forecast space 

weather. Improving our current capabilities will require investment 

in basic research, additional observations, models, and the ability 

to transition models into operational use. 

The National Academies 2012 Heliophysics Decadal Survey stated, ‘‘Achievement of critical continuity of key space environment 

parameters, their utilization in advanced models, and application 

to operations constitute a major endeavor that will require unprecedented cooperation among agencies in the area in which each has 

specific expertise and unique capabilities.’’ 

To that end, Mr. Chairman, the National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan provide goals for federal agencies to organize our research and operational efforts on space 

weather and responses to extreme space weather events. The Senate passed bill, and the companion House Bill introduced by Mr. 

Perlmutter would ensure continued interagency coordination and 

encourage increased involvement with international, academic, and 

commercial sectors. 

Mr. Chairman, the nation’s efforts to deal with space weather 

demonstrate the ways in which our investments in basic research 

and NASA benefit our society. In the case of space weather, these 

investments are integral in ensuring the safety and operations of 

our critical infrastructure on the ground and in space. 

I look forward to hearing from our witnesses on what is needed 

to advance our nation’s understanding and our ability to monitor, 

predict, and forecast space weather. 

Thank you, and with that, I yield back. 
15 

[The prepared statement of Mr. Bera follows:] 
16 

OPENING STATEMENT 

Ranking Member Ami Bera (D-CA) 

of the Subcommittee on Space 

House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology 

Subcommittee on Environment 

Subcommittee on Space 

''Surveying the Space Weather Landscape" 

April26, 2018 

Good morning, and welcome to our witnesses. I look forward to your testimony. Thank you, Mr. 

Chairman. for holding this hearing on "Surveying the Space Weather Landscape". 

Severe space weather events pose significant threats to our national security, economy and 

society. Space weather can affect everything f!·om electric power systems, satellite. aircraft, and 

spacecraft operations (including human spaceflight operations); and other ground and spacebased infrastructure. 

NASA's research and observations in solar and space physics has been instrumental in achieving 

our current capabilities for space weather monitoring and prediction. 

The Advanced Composition Explorer and the joint European Space Agency-NASA mission, 

both launched over 20 years ago, along with other NASA spacecraft such as STEREO and the 

Solar Dynamics Observatory, provide critical information in forecasting solar eruptions and their 

movement through the heliosphere. 

That said, it's important to understand that we are only at the early stages of our ability to predict 

and forecast space weather. Improving our current capabilities will require investments in basic 

research, additional observations, models, and the ability to transition models into operational 

use. 

The National Academies 2012 Heliophysics decadal survey stated, "Achievement of critical 

continuity (!f key space environment parameters, their utilization in advanced models, and 

application to operations constitute a major endeavor that will require unprecedented 

cooperation among agencies in the areas in which each has specific expertise and unique 

capabilities." 

To that end, Mr. Chaim1an, the National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan 

provide goals for federal agencies to organize our research and operational cfi01is on space 

weather and responses to extreme space weather events. 

The Senate-passed bill and the companion House bill introduced by Mr. Perlmutter would ensure 

continued interagency coordination and encourage increased involvement with international, 

academic, and commercial sectors. 

Mr. Chairman, the nation's efforts to deal with space weather demonstrate the ways in which our 

investments in basic research and NASA benefit our society. In the case of space weather, these 
17 

investments are integral in ensuring the safety and operations of our critical infrastructure on the 

ground and in space. 

I look fmward to hearing from our witnesses on what is needed to advance our nation's 

understanding and our ability to monitor, predict, and forecast space weather. 

Thank you and I yield back. 
18 

Chairman BIGGS. Thank you, Mr. Bera. 

I now recognize the Chairman of the full Committee, the gentleman from Texas, Mr. Smith, for an opening statement. 

Chairman SMITH. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you and 

Chairman Babin for holding this hearing. 

While we are all familiar with terrestrial or Earth weather, what 

exactly space weather is and why it deserves our attention is much 

less widely understood. Broadly speaking, space weather is the way 

the behavior of the Sun and the nature of Earth’s magnetic field 

and atmosphere interact. At a more detailed level, space weather 

is as complex of an issue as it is a consequential one. 

At the center of space weather, as with terrestrial weather, are 

storms. The type and intensity of these storms can vary widely, but 

all space weather storms do have one thing in common and that 

is they are affected by the Sun. Solar phenomena, like solar flares, 

send streams of charged particles toward Earth as solar wind. Once 

solar wind reaches Earth, it interacts in surprising and hugely consequential ways with our magnetic field. The impact of these interactions varies and is dependent upon the intensity of the charge 

and concentration of particles in the solar wind. 

However, disastrous events like GPS disruptions, satellites 

knocked out of orbit, and permanent damage to large swaths of the 

electric grid are possible and, over time, even likely. As a general 

rule, the damage done by space weather events will be proportional 

to the amount of advanced technology exposed. In our modern, 

technology-laden world, a large storm could be incredibly costly 

both in terms of dollars and lives. 

Geomagnetic-induced currents that result from space weather 

can damage oil pipelines, railways, power grids, and complex technology by causing extensive voltage surges. In the case of power 

grids, these currents have the potential to damage both transmission lines and transformers, which could potentially lead to the 

collapse of entire distribution networks. 

Space weather is also dangerous to human life. Astronauts on 

the International Space Station and commercial aviation flights 

and their passengers could be exposed to significantly larger and 

unsafe amounts of radiation during space weather events. Astronauts do have technologies in place to help protect them. Flights 

can be rerouted and grounded. But these quick, piecemeal fixes are 

not sustainable solutions to a potential major solar weather event. 

Just as we currently forecast the active elements of terrestrial 

weather involving water, temperature, and air, so too is there potential to do the same for space weather. In fact, efforts to model 

solar activity and forecast the active elements of space weather— 

the concentration of particles, electromagnetic energy, and magnetic field impacts—are already underway at federal agencies and 

private entities. 

The recent White House Office of Science and Technology Policy 

and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s request for information about space weather and ways commercial 

entities can help deserves our support. The efforts the private sector has been taking are promising and we should encourage them. 

We are increasingly dependent on advanced technology. The potential for disruption to society, including the possible destruction 
19 

of critical infrastructure by space weather events, is alarming. 

While we have made strides toward better modeling and prediction 

of solar phenomena, as well as accurately forecasting space weather, there is still significant room for improvement. 

I look forward to learning from our witnesses today and hearing 

their insights and perspectives on this topic. This committee has a 

bipartisan history of meeting the challenges and advancing U.S. 

leadership in space, and I am hopeful space weather will be no exception. 

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

[The prepared statement of Chairman Smith follows:] 
20 

COMMITTEe ON 

SCIENCE, SPACE, & TECHNOLOGY Lamar Smith, Chairman 

For Immediate Release 

April 26, 2018 

Media Contacts: Thea McDonald, Brandon VerVelde 

1202) 225-6371 

Statement by Chairman Lamar Smith (R· Texas) 

Surveying the Space Weather Landscape 

Chairman Smith: Thank you, Chairman Biggs and Chairman Babin, for holding this hearing. 

While we are all familiar with terrestrial or Earth weather, what exactly space weather is, and 

why it deserves our attention, is much less widely understood. 

Broadly speaking, space weather is the way the behavior of the sun and the nature of 

Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere interact. At a more detailed level. space weather is 

as complex of an issue as it is a consequential one. 

At the center of space weather, as with terrestrial weather, are storms. The type and intensity 

of these storms can vary widely but all space weather storms do have one thing in common 

and that is they are affected by the sun. 

Solar phenomena like solar flares send streams of charged particles toward Earth as solar 

wind. Once solar wind reaches Earth, it interacts in surprising and hugely consequential ways 

with our magnetic field. 

The impact of these interactions varies and is dependent upon the intensity of the charge 

and concentration of particles in the solar wind. 

However, disastrous events like GPS disruptions, satellites knocked out of orbit and 

permanent damage to large swaths of the electric grid are possible and, over time, likely. 

As a general rule. the damage done by space weather events will be proportional to the 

amount of advanced technology exposed. In our modern, technology-laden world, a large 

storm could be incredibly costly in dollars and lives. 

Geomagnetic induced currents that result from space weather can damage oil pipelines. 

railways, power grids and complex technology by causing extensive voltage surges. In the 

case of power grids, these currents have the potential to damage both transmission lines 

and transformers, which could potentially lead to the collapse of entire distribution networks. 

Space weather is also dangerous to human life. Astronauts on the International Space 

Station and commercial aviation flights and their passengers could be exposed to 

significantly larger, and unsafe, amounts of radiation during space weather events. 
21 

Astronauts do have technologies in place to help protect them. Flights can be re-routed and 

grounded. But these quick, piecemeal fixes are not sustainable solutions to a potential major 

solar weather event. 

Just as we currently forecast the active elements of terrestrial weather involving water. 

temperature and air, so too is there potential to do the same for space weather. In fact. 

efforts to model solar activity and forecast the active elements of space weather- the 

concentration of particles, electromagnetic energy and magnetic field impacts - are 

already underway at federal agencies and private entities. 

The recent White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and the National Oceanic 

and Atmospheric Administration's request for information about space weather and ways 

commercial entities can help deserves our support. The efforts the private sector has been 

taking are promising and we should encourage them. 

We are increasingly dependent on advanced technology. The potential for disruption to 

society, including the possible destruction of critical infrastructure by space weather events, 

is alarming. While we have made strides toward better modeling and prediction of solar 

phenomena as well as accurately forecasting space weather, there is still significant room 

for improvement. 

I look forward to learning from our witnesses today and hearing their insights and 

perspectives on this topic. This committee has a bipartisan history of meeting the challenges 

and advancing U.S. leadership in space and I am hopeful space weather will be no 

exception. 

### 
22 

Chairman SMITH. And before I yield back, two things to mention, 

and that is I regret I’m going to have to shuttle back and forth between this hearing and the Judiciary Committee, but I hope to be 

back. And second, although I realized he has already been welcomed, I’d like to welcome Conor here for his first Science Committee hearing. Conor, I have a binder here for you of a lot of our 

activities and a lot of our jurisdiction, which I’ll pass on to you 

after the Ranking Member finishes her statement. But we’re glad 

to have you, and I appreciate Conor Lamb as being a Member of 

this Committee as well. 

Chairman BIGGS. Thank you, Chairman Smith. I now recognize 

the Ranking Member of the full Committee, the gentlewoman from 

Texas, Ms. Johnson, for an opening statement. 

Ms. JOHNSON. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. 

And before I do my statement, I too, would like to welcome Mr. 

Lamb and say that I know he’s facing more Texans on this committee than practically any other committee here, but don’t let that 

frighten you. We always look—know that our responsibility on this 

job is to look out for the future. 

We have a young future scientist potential sitting out here 

watching us this morning. I want to welcome her as well. 

Mr. Chairman, I do appreciate the fact that you’re having this 

committee hearing from two committees because space weather is 

not well understood but has the potential to impact our daily lives 

in significant ways. It is a field that is ripe for research and innovation to ensure that life and property can be protected from the 

negative impacts of large-scale space weather storms to which 

Texas is accustomed. 

But also from the daily challenges posed by the space weather 

events, the need for basic research is clear, as many of the fundamental science and physics questions related to the Sun-Earth system and space weather remain unanswered. I’m pleased that the 

Chairman is holding this hearing today, as it allows us to assess 

the current state of space weather research and preparedness. 

I look forward to today’s discussion. I hope it will allow us to 

move quickly to markup Mr. Perlmutter’s Space Weather Research 

and Forecasting Act and take it to the full House for a vote. This 

bill is widely supported by the broad space weather community, 

which includes federal agencies, academia, and the commercial sector. Today’s panels of expert witnesses is well-suited to provide us 

with an update on the current state of space weather research and 

development but also to make clear the need for prompt passage 

of this legislation to prevent backsliding on progress made today. 

I am heartened to see that we have witnesses from NASA and 

NOAA, the two lead federal agencies responsible for collecting the 

data on modeling and forecasting space weather events to the public to provide the Administration’s perspective. Having an academic 

and a representative from the commercial sector at the table allows 

for a robust discussion not only on the state of science in space 

weather but also about current research needs moving forward. At 

this critical juncture, it is important for Congress to continue the 

forward momentum for what was set in motion by the National 

Space Weather Strategy and the National Space Weather Action 

Plan in 2015. 
23 

Space weather research and prediction capabilities are widely 

considered to be almost 50 years behind the state of terrestrial 

weather prediction, leaving our society at a disadvantage. Space 

weather impacts can be far-reaching, with disturbances in the SunEarth system potentially leading to disruption of key services such 

as GPS, the electric grid, and airline communications to name a 

few. 

Despite our current observing assets that are gathering data on 

space weather phenomenon, we need to be thinking ahead to the 

next round of needed observational capabilities to ensure a continuation of critical data collection. We cannot sit idly by and take our 

time to protect our critical investments and society from the persistent damaging impacts of space weather events. Based on the 

need for additional research and collaboration and the clear and 

persistent threats posed by space weather phenomenon on our 

daily lives, there is no better time than now to put forth a legislative framework approach on how this critical issue should be addressed. 

I thank you, Mr. Chairman, and yield back. 

[The prepared statement of Ms. Johnson follows:] 
24 

OPENING STATEMENT 

Ranking Member Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-TX) 

House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology 

Subcommittee on Environment 

Subcommittee on Space 

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

"Surveying the Space Weather Landscape" 

April26,2018 

Space weather is not well understood but has the potential to impact our daily lives in significant 

ways. It is a field that is ripe for research and innovation to ensure that life and property can be 

protected from the negative impacts of large-scale space weather storms, but also from the daily 

challenges posed by space weather events. The need for basic research is clear as many of the 

fundamental science and physics questions related to the Sun-Earth system and space weather 

remain unanswered. 

I am pleased that the Chairman is holding this hearing today as it allows us to assess the current 

state of space weather research and preparedness. I look forward to today's discussion, and I 

hope it will allow us to move quickly to markup Mr. Perlmutter's "Space Weather Research and 

Forecasting Act," and take it to the House floor for a vote. This bill is widely supported by the 

broad space weather community, which includes federal agencies, academia, and the commercial 

sector. 

Today's panel of expert witnesses is well-suited to provide us with an update on the current state 

of space weather research and development, but also to make clear the need for prompt passage 

of this legislation to prevent backsliding on progress made to date. I am heartened to see that we 

have witnesses from both NASA and NOAA, the two lead federal agencies responsible for 

collecting data on, modeling, and forecasting space weather events to the public, to provide the 

Administration's perspective. Having an academic and a representative from the commercial 

sector at the table allows for a robust discussion not only on the 'state of the science' in space 

weather, but also about current research needs moving forward. At this critical juncture, it is 

important for Congress to continue the forward momentum of what was set in motion by the 

National Space Weather Strategy and the National Space Weather Action Plan in 2015. 

Space weather research and prediction capabilities are widely considered to be almost 50 years 

behind the state of terrestrial weather prediction, leaving our society at a disadvantage. Space 

weather impacts can be far-reaching with disturbances in the Sun-Earth system potentially 

leading to disruption of key services such as GPS, the electric grid, and airline communications 

to name a few. Despite our current observing assets that are gathering data on space weather 

phenomena, we need to be thinking ahead to the next round ofnceded observational capabilities 

to ensure a continuation of critical data collection. We cannot sit idly by and take our time to 

protect our critical investments and society from the persistent damaging impacts of space 

weather events. 
25 

Based on the need for additional research and collaboration, and the clear and persistent threats 

posed by space weather phenomenon on our daily lives, there is no better time than now to put 

forth a legislative framework approach on how this critical issue should be addressed. 

Thank you. I yield back. 
26 

Chairman BIGGS. Thank you, Ms. Johnson. I appreciate that. 

Now, we’re going to introduce our wonderful witnesses on this 

panel. Dr. Neil Jacobs is our first witness today. He is the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental Observation and 

Prediction at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Prior to his appointment at NOAA, Dr. Jacobs was the Chief 

Atmospheric Scientist at Panasonic Avionics Corporation where he 

directed the research and development of both the Aviation Weather Observing Program and the Numerical Forecast Models. He is 

the Chair of the American Meteorological Society’s Forecast Improvement Group and also served on the World Meteorological Organization’s Aircraft-Based Observing Systems Expert Team. 

Dr. Jacobs holds bachelor of science degrees in mathematics and 

physics from the University of South Carolina, a master of science 

in air-sea interaction, and a doctoral degree in numerical modeling 

from North Carolina State University. Welcome, Dr. Jacobs. 

Dr. James Spann is our next witness. He is the Chief Scientist 

of the Heliophysics Division in the Science Mission Directorate at 

NASA headquarters. In 1986, Dr. Spann joined the NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, where he has 

held numerous positions, including Chief Scientist and Manager of 

the Science Research Office. He led the study and publication of 

the Heliophysics Science and the Moon and was Co-Chair of the 

Heliophysics Roadmap: The Solar and Space Physics of a New Era. 

Dr. Spann was awarded the NASA Outstanding Leadership Medal 

in 2010 and the NASA Distinguished Service Medal in 2013. 

He received his bachelor of science in mathematics and physics 

from Ouachita Baptist University and his Ph.D. in physics from the 

University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. He also spent two years as 

a postdoctoral fellow with the U.S. Department of Energy in Morgantown, West Virginia. Glad to have you, Dr. Spann. 

Dr. Sarah Gibson is our third witness, a Senior Scientist in the 

High Altitude Observatory at the National Center for Atmospheric 

Research and Co-Chair of the Committee on Solar and Space Physics at the National Academy of Science. Dr. Gibson’s research centers on solar drivers of the terrestrial environment from short-term 

space weather drivers such as coronal mass ejections to long-term 

solar cycle variation. She was the recipient of the American Astronomical Society’s Solar Physics Division 2005 Karen Harvey Prize. 

She was a scientific editor for the Astrophysical Journal and has 

served on many national and international committees. 

Dr. Gibson received her bachelor’s degree in physics from Stanford University and her master and doctoral degrees in astrophysics from the University of Colorado. Welcome, Dr. Gibson. 

Dr. Kent Tobiska is our final witness. He is President and Chief 

Scientist of Space Environment Technologies. His career spans 

work at the NOAA Space Environment Lab, U.S.—excuse me, UC 

Berkeley Space Sciences Laboratory, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 

Northrop Grumman, SET, Utah State University Space Weather 

Center, and Q-up LLC. Dr. Tobiska invented the world’s first operational computer code for solar irradiance forecasting and extended 

this expertise into the development of operational space weather 

systems that now produce solar irradiances, geomagnetic indices, 

and ground-to-space radiation environment dose rates. 
27 

Dr. Tobiska received a Ph.D. in aerospace engineering from the 

University of Colorado. He is a member of the American Geophysical Union, Committee on Space Research, American Meteorological Society, and an associate fellow of the American Institute of 

Aeronautics. We’re happy to have you as well, Dr. Tobiska. 

Thank all of you. 

And now, I recognize Dr. Jacobs for five minutes to present his 

testimony, and I think the 5-minute timer’s right there in front of 

you so you can see it clearly. Thanks, Dr. Jacobs. 

TESTIMONY OF DR. NEIL JACOBS, 

ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF COMMERCE FOR 

ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATION AND PREDICTION, 

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION 

Dr. JACOBS. Good morning, Chairmen Biggs and Babin, Ranking 

Members Bonamici and Bera, and Members of the Subcommittees. 

Thank you for the opportunity to testify at this hearing about space 

weather. 

NOAA is the U.S. government’s official source of civilian space 

weather forecast, warning, and alerts to the public, industry, and 

government agencies. Through our Space Weather Production Center (SWPC), NOAA delivers space weather products that meet the 

evolving needs of the nation. SWPC operates 24 hours a day, 7 

days a week and provides real-time forecasts and warnings of solar 

geophysical events. SWPC works closely with our U.S. Air Force 

partners, who are responsible for all national security needs and 

space weather information. SWPC efforts are also closely integrated with other agencies including NASA, National Science 

Foundation, and the U.S. Geological Survey, as well as commercial 

service providers, private industry, and academia. 

NOAA utilizes an array of space- and ground-based observations 

in our space weather forecast operations and related research. Currently, NOAA relies on two primary observational assets to underpin our forecasts and warning, one satellite instrument for imagery 

of the Sun’s corona and the other for Earthbound solar wind. The 

solar imagery used by NOAA comes from the joint European Space 

Agency/NASA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, SOHO. 

SOHO’s coronal imagery is critical for NOAA’s 1- to 4-day lead 

time for geomagnetic storm conditions. SOHO is anticipated to run 

out of power by 2025, and it currently has no backup. 

In 2017, NOAA began development of a flight compact 

coronagraph (CCOR) to obtain imagery, and we will work with the 

U.S. Naval Research Laboratory to obtain the quickest possible delivery of this instrument. NOAA is currently evaluating an option 

to host the CCOR on our GOES–U satellite. 

The second satellite NOAA uses is the Deep Space Climate Observatory DSCOVR. Stationed at the Earth’s Sun Lagrange point 

L1 a million miles from Earth, DSCOVR is critical for real-time 

measurements of Earthbound solar winds. These observations play 

a critical role in our quest to better predict the probability of an 

eruption of the Sun. When an eruption occurs, forecasters feed the 

data into computer models and determine the likely duration and 

intensity of the solar events of Earth’s ionosphere and 

magnetosphere. 
28 

NOAA forecasters communicate current and forecasted space 

weather conditions using a variety of products. Space weather 

scales, which are similar to hurricane classifications, communicate 

potential impacts such as radio blackouts from solar flares, solar 

radiation storms due to solar energetic articles, and geomagnetic 

storms from coronal mass ejections. 

Watches, warnings, and alerts are issued by email via a product 

subscription service and also telephone notification to critical customers such as power grid operators, FEMA, and DOD. Using 

these NOAA products, the nation can enhance national preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery actions to safeguard assets 

and maintain continuity of operations during space weather activity. 

SWPC ensures that all data are made available to the growing 

private sector service providers. The NOAA private sector partnership plays a vital role in meeting the nation’s needs for space 

weather services. NOAA makes all of its information available and 

recognizes that a strong public-private partnership is essential to 

establish observing networks conduct the research, create forecast 

models, and supply services necessary to support our national security and economic prosperity. NOAA is committed to working towards the growth of the private sector as a national infrastructure 

demands more space weather services. 

Space weather presents a variety of hazards to technical systems 

and human health. NOAA’s space weather products serve major 

U.S. airlines, satellite companies, and all U.S. electric power companies. These industries are well aware that solar weather can impact their communications, navigation, electrostatic charging, and 

cause mission interruption. 

On April 19, the White House Office of Science and Technology 

Policy announced a development and update to the National Space 

Weather Strategy. This strategy, originally published in October of 

2015, sets out to unite the U.S. national and homeland security 

with science and technology enterprise to formulate a cohesive approach to enhance national preparedness for space weather. This 

important update seeks to improve the government coordination on 

long-term guidance for federal programs and activities to enhance 

national preparedness for space weather events. 

The revised strategy will align with priorities identified by the 

Administration in the 2017 National Security Strategy and Space 

Policy Directive 1. NOAA will continue to work and partner with 

other federal agencies in this renewed effort to develop and 

strengthen our activities in space. NOAA recognizes the importance 

of engaging public and private expertise and the whole-community 

collaborative approach to enhance the resiliency and security of our 

nation to space weather storms. 

Thank you again for inviting me to participate today. I would be 

pleased to answer any questions you may have. 

[The prepared statement of Dr. Jacobs follows:] 
29 

WRITTEN STATEMENT BY 

NEIL JACOBS 

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION 

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 

ON 

SPACE WEATHER ACTIVITIES IN THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC 

ADMINISTRATION 

Introduction 

COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 

SUBCOMMITTEES ON SPACE AND ENVIRONMENT 

U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 

APRIL 26, 2018 

Good morning Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee. My name is Neil Jacobs and I am 

the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental Observation and Prediction at the 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the Department of Commerce. 

Thank you for the opportunity to testify at this hearing about space weather. NOAA is the U.S. 

Government official source of civilian space weather forecasts, warnings, and alerts to the 

general public, industry, and government agencies. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center 

(SWPC), which is one of nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction within the National 

Weather Service, has a mission to deliver space weather products and services that meet the 

evolving needs of the Nation. SWPC operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and provides realtime forecasts and warnings of solar and geophysical events. SWPC works closely with its 

partner-center in the Department of Defense (DOD), the U.S. Air Force (USAF) 557th Weather 

Wing. The 55 7th is responsible for all DOD/National Security needs for space weather 

information. In addition to the DOD, SWPC efforts are closely integrated with other agencies, 

including NASA, National Science Foundation (NSF), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), 

as well as commercial service providers, private industry, and academia. It is SWPC's goal to 

produce accurate and timely space weather products and decision support tools that protect 

national critical infrastructure. The importance ofSWPC's mission is evident as our Nation relies 

on technologies and human activities that are vulnerable to space weather impacts. 

What is space weather? 

Space weather refers to variations in the space environment between the sun and Earth (and 

throughout the solar system) that can affect technologies in space and on Earth. Space weather is 

primarily driven by solar storm phenomena that include solar flares, solar particle events, and 

coronal mass ejections (CME). Solar flares are large eruptions of electromagnetic radiation from 

the Sun lasting from minutes to hours, and the effects are often referred to as solar flare radio 

blackouts. Solar energetic particles create radiation storms and occur when an eruption on the 

Sun accelerates charged particles through interplanetary space. ACME is an expulsion of 

1 
30 

billions of tons of plasma gas from the Sun with an embedded magnetic field. CMEs can lead to 

geomagnetic storms, whose outcome can result in a response partially similar to an 

electromagnetic pulse (EMP) produced from a high-altitude nuclear detonation. These naturally 

occurring phenomena have the potential to negatively affect critical infrastructure essential to the 

Nation's security and economic vitality. Space weather has the potential to disrupt human 

activities in space and technologies such as the Global Positioning System (GPS), satellite and 

spacecraft operations, telecommunications, aviation, and the electric power gridsimultaneously affecting large areas, potentially impacting the entire Nation or even wider 

geographic areas. And it is important to recognize that our critical infrastructure is an 

interconnected, interdependent system of systems in which the failure of one could cascade to 

another. 

How are forecasts developed and disseminated 

A space weather forecast begins with a thorough analysis of the Sun. Forecasters use many 

different types of solar images from space-based and Earth platforms to analyze active solar 

regions, localized areas that typically contain enhanced magnetic fields and sunspots. Sunspot 

groups can be several times the size of Earth and contain complex magnetic structures. 

Following this analysis, forecasters predict the probability of an eruption on the Sun. When an 

eruption occurs, forecasters feed the data from the data collection platforms and historical data in 

our archives into computer models to determine the likely effects of solar events on Earth's 

ionosphere and magnetosphere. These models help forecasters estimate when the effects will 

begin, how long they will last, and how severe the event will be. 

NOAA is working actively with NASA and NSF to tap into their support of research and space 

weather modeling developed in the academic community to increase forecast skill. Some of these 

models have already been tested in a real-time mode at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 

Community Coordinated Modeling Center. Our focus is to accelerate the transition of research 

to operations to enable SWPC operational forecasts to be based on these sophisticated models. 

To date, the NWS now runs two operational models: the George Mason University, Air Force 

Research Lab, Wang-Sheeley-Arge ENLIL heliosphere model; and the University of Michigan 

Geospace Model. 

SWPC forecasters communicate current and forecasted space weather conditions using a variety 

of products. Many of the products reference the NOAA Space Weather Scales. Just like there are 

categories to classify hurricanes, there are also Space Weather Scales for communicating the 

relative severity of space weather storms. Space weather scales separately map to the 

aforementioned emissions from the sun- Radio Blackouts (solar flares), Solar Radiation Storms 

(solar energetic particles), and Geomagnetic Storms (coronal mass ejections). The scales list 

possible impacts for each level and indicate how often such events happen. Watches, warnings, 

and alerts are issued by email via a product subscription service and by telephone notification to 

critical customers such as the various power grid operators and the Federal Emergency 

Management Agency (FEMA) Operations Center. NOAA's space weather alerts and warnings 

are key for enhancing national preparedness to space weather. Using these products, the Nation 

can enhance mitigation, response, and recovery actions to safe1,>uard assets and maintain 

continuity of operations during space-weather activity. 

2 
31 

SWPC ensures all data and services are made available to the growing private sector service 

providers. The NOAA-private sector partnership plays a vital role in meeting the Nation's needs 

for space weather services. NOAA makes all of its information available and recognizes that a 

strong public-private partnership is essential to establish the observing networks, conduct the 

research, create forecast models and supply the services necessary to support our national 

security and economic prosperity. NOAA is committed to working toward the growth of the 

private sector as the national infrastructure demands more space weather services. 

Who are the consumers and what actions will thev take to mitigate impacts 

Space weather presents a variety of hazards to technical systems and human health. SWPC 

serves a growing and diverse customer base covering a broad spectrum of users. SWPC's 

Product Subscription Service, which began in 2005 with a few hundred subscribers, ballooned to 

over 53,000 subscribers just a decade later. All major U.S. airlines subscribe to the service, as do 

all satellite companies, and all electric power companies. 

During severe geomagnetic storms, SWPC forecasters use the 24-hour Emergency Hotline to 

issue warnings to the 16 Reliability Coordinator centers (RC) across the United States and 

Canada. The RCs in turn redistribute the information to power companies in their areas of 

responsibility enabling efforts by those companies to take protective actions. 

Likewise, during space weather stom1s, ground receivers can struggle to lock on to GPS 

satellites, thus timing and position information becomes less accurate or unavailable. NOAA 

issues space weather warnings to a variety of public and private industry sectors that rely on 

GPS, such as oil companies that use GPS services worldwide to position oilrigs and survey 

vessels. These warnings also go to farmers who rely on GPS for improved crop yield through 

precise application of pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers while reducing cnviromnental risks 

and to construction crews who rely on GPS to improve the productivity, efficiency and safety at 

their job sites. GPS is also relied upon across the transportation systems sector to improve safety, 

efficiency and to reduce environmental impacts. As market innovations continue to accelerate 

the development of autonomous transportation, NOAA will provide the critical information to 

support safe operations during space weather events in this new transportation paradigm. 

Over 15,000 commercial flights flew polar routes in 2017. Airline crews receive a space weather 

briefing before departing on any polar route. Aviation operators use NOAA space weather 

information to assess potential impacts- such as communication outages, harmful radiation, and 

navigation errors-to adjust routes and altitudes. 

Spacecraft launch operators use radiation products to avoid electronic problems on navigation 

systems, preventing launch vehicles from going off course and being destroyed. Space weather 

effects on satellites can vary from minor interruptions to potential mission failure. Satellite 

operators rely on space weather products to avoid or analyze problems on their spacecraft. 

NOAA's forecasts and observations are also important input to manned spaceflight operations. 

Activities onboard the International Space Station are altered to avoid or mitigate effects of 

radiation storms impacting crew safety and technological systems. Accurate space weather 

3 
32 

information will be important when we return Americans to the surface of the Moon and onward 

to Mars. 

Space weather forecasts are also important inputs to support DOD communications, USAF flight 

operations, U.S. Navy strike forces, and U.S. Army Special Forces. NOAA's Geostationary 

Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) provide the basis for classified and unclassified 

data for the DOD. In fact, 80% of the DOD space weather alerts and warnings rely on GOES 

data. The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018 calls for an assessment of the 

nature, magnitude, and likelihood of potential EMP, both manmade and natural, that could be 

directed at or affect the United States within the next 20 years. 

A growing number of S WPC customers are realizing social and economic benefits from space 

weather products and services. NOAA is addressing the accelerating growth in our space weather 

customer base by improving our understanding of customer needs and by defining new services 

in response to the evolving needs and requirements of a global high-tech economy. 

Observation Platforms 

NOAA utilizes an array of space-based and ground based observations in our space weather 

forecast operations and related research. Many of these data sets arc available in near real-time, 

and come from a variety of sources, ranging from solar imaging satellites to ground 

magnetometer stations. In addition to NOAA operational assets, we have partnerships with other 

organizations such as NASA, NSF, USAF, and USGS to utilize data from these agencies to 

complement the NOAA observations. 

Currently, NOAA relies on the European Space Agency/NASA's SOlar Heliospheric 

Observatory (SOHO) for CME imagery. The life expectancy of SOHO, which was launched in 

1995, is limited by the power produced from its solar arrays. Solar arrays degrade over time and 

the latest engineering analysis indicates that by 2025, there will be insufficient power for the 

satellite to operate. At this time, there is no back up for CME imagery. With the eventual power 

loss, NOAA will lose access to CME imagery. Without CME imagery, the 1- to 4-day lead-time 

of likely storm conditions will be degraded, thereby affecting the accuracy of geomagnetic storm 

watches. NOAA started developing a tlight compact coronagraph (CCOR) to obtain CME 

imagery in 2017, and will continue to work with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) to 

obtain the quickest possible delivery of the CCOR instrument. NOAA is currently evaluating an 

option to host the CCOR on the GOES-U satellite on its Sun-Pointing Platform (SPP). 

NOAA also relies on NSF's Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG), which provides 

ground-based observations ofthe solar magnetic field. GONG consists of a network of six 

stations that provide imaging and magnetograms on a 24/7 basis. GONG is currently undergoing 

a modernization program to make it operationally ready to provide critical data inputs to SWPC 

space weather models. NOAA provides partial support for GONG operations through a 5-year 

interagency agreement with NSF. 

Real-time measurements of the highly variable solar winds are vital for assessing space weather 

conditions in near-Earth space within the atmosphere and on the ground. For solar wind data 

upstream of Earth, NOAA uses its Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) stationed at 

4 
33 

Earth-Sun Lagrange point 1 (Ll). DSCOVR is a research-grade satellite and is susceptible to 

mission failure with the loss of any of several single string critical components. For backup, we 

use the NASA Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. ACE (launched in 1997) is 

limited by fuel used for orbit station-keeping and will run out of fuel in 2026. Loss of in-situ 

monitoring of solar winds without a replacement will cripple NOAA's ability to provide shortterm warnings ( 15-45 minutes) of space weather storms. NOAA is exploring a partnership with 

NASA to fly a NOAA Space Weather Follow-On (SWFO) spacecraft as a rideshare with the 

NASA 2024 Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) launch toLl. As a part of this 

effort, NOAA will conduct assessments on potential instruments for a solar wind mission. 

Additionally, NOAA is exploring commercial opportunities for solutions to meet U.S. 

government requirements for space weather observations. These commercial solutions could 

include: the availability of space and resources for U.S. government sensors or instruments on 

commercially manifested satellite missions (i.e., hosted payloads); commercial satellite systems 

that complement or meet U.S. government observing requirements; and purchasing commercial 

space weather observations (i.e. data buys). 

To obtain continuous data from DSCOVR and ACE, NOAA relies on a network of ground 

tracking stations located at various sites around the world. Our foreign partners include the 

National Institute oflnformation and Communications Technology in Tokyo, Japan; the Korean 

Radio Research Agency Space Weather Center in Jeju, Korea; and the German Aerospace Center 

in Neustrelitz, Germany. 

The underpinning data used by NOAA to supply the Nation with geomagnetic storm warnings 

and alerts are the ground-based magnetic field observations provided by the USGS 

Geomagnetism Program. NOAA's geomagnetic storm alerts and warnings are based on the 

USGS magnetometers. These observations describe the local intensity of the changes in 

magnetic fields and allow NOAA to characterize the intensity of the geomagnetic storm. 

NOAAs Interagency Coordination with SWORM 

In November 2014, the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task 

Force was established by action of the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC). It was 

tasked with uniting the national- and homeland-security enterprise with the science and 

technology enterprise to formulate a cohesive approach to enhance national preparedness for 

space weather. As a result, the National Space Weather Strategy and associated Action Plan 1 

were published in October 2015. Executive Order (EO) 13744 ~Coordinating Efforts to Prepare 

the Nation for Space Weather Events, was signed in October 2016. 

These documents together identify 105 actions for Executive departments and agencies to 

prepare the Nation for space weather storms. To maximize efficiency in our efforts to complete 

the goals in the National Space Weather Strategy, NOAA is committed to strong public-private 

partnerships between the Federal Government, industry, and academia. And given the global 

threat of space weather, and because the United States has key assets across the world, we must 

1

https:f/www.sworm.gov/publications/2015/swap_final_20151028.pdf 

5 
34 

also work with international partners to build adaptive capacity and increase resilience to space 

weather. 

On April 19, the Office of Science and Technology Policy announced the development of an 

update to the National Space Weather Strategy. This important initiative seeks to improve 

government coordination on long-term guidance for Federal programs and activities to enhance 

national preparedness to space weather events. The revised strategy will align with priorities 

identified by the Administration in the 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS), and the Space 

Policy Directive- I. The NSS promotes American resilience through improving our ability to 

withstand and recover rapidly from natural disasters and other threats to our economy and 

democratic system. It recognizes that in the event of a disaster, Federal, state, and local agencies 

must perform essential functions and have plans in place to ensure the continuation of 

government. Space Policy Directive- I provides for a U.S.-Ied, integrated program with private 

sector partners for a human return to the Moon, followed by missions to Mars and beyond. 

Outside Earth's protective magnetic field and atmosphere, the radiation in space will pose a 

serious risk to astronauts as they travel to the Moon, Mars and beyond. Space weather forecasts 

will be important for the safety of our astronauts on deep space missions. 

On April 20, NOAA released a Request For Information (RFI) seeking input from the public on 

ways to improve government coordination and on long-term guidance for Federal programs and 

activities to enhance national preparedness to space weather events. The RFI also includes the 

opportunity for the private sector to provide information regarding commercial activities 

associated with space weather prediction, observation, or the transitioning of research to 

operations. Specifically, NOAA will utilize the input to enable and advance the private sector 

role for capabilities, forecasting, modeling, mitigation, research, development, and observation in 

the space weather domain. 

NOAA will continue to work and partner with other Federal agencies in this renewed effort to 

develop and strengthen our activities in space weather research and forecasting. And we 

recognize the importance of engaging public and private expertise in a whole community 

approach, engaging public and private expertise to enhance the resiliency and security of our 

Nation to space weather storms. 

6 
35 

4/24/2018 Dr. Nell Jacobs 1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admimstration 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration 

VS Qeparlment<>fComme<ce 

Dr. Neil Jacobs 

Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental Observation and Prediction 

NOAAI<Ia<lershlp 

Dr. Jacobs was formerly the (l1;ef Atmospheric Se~ent:st .at Panasor"c Avwmcs Corporation. where he d1rected the research and development of both 

thE> av.at<on wE>mhE'r observmg prograr1, as well as the numE>r:cal forecast models 1-1e waslhe Cha1r of the Am~'r:ran Meteorolog,cal Soctety's 

Forecast ImprovemE-nt Group, and also o.erve(1 on the World ME'teorologKal Orgarnzat,on·s arrcraft-base<l ooserv<ng systems expert team 

Pr10r to jOIFllng Panason'c (AtrOa!) m 2005, Or Jacobs worked on VallO i-S analyses and mooelmg proje<::ts w•cludtng 1'-,ASA's EMth Syster"s Scn?nce 

Program, GOES sateH:te program. and the C}ep.;ntment of fnergy's Oc:ea1 f./argms P'ograin '-le has baC'HOIOr oi scte"!C:E' degrees •n mat'lemat~c:s and 

pt>ys.cs from tre UnJVers1ty of South Car0!1r<r. and a master of se>ence degre<> in a1r·sea rnteract•on. a'Hi a docwral cegreE> >n nu:nencal model,ng 

hom .\lor!!' Cd·ol<na StalE' Urwersqy 

http://vwviN.noaa.gov/leadership/dr-neiHacobs 111 
36 

Chairman BIGGS. Thank you, Dr. Jacobs. 

I now recognize Dr. Spann for five minutes for his testimony. 

TESTIMONY OF DR. JIM SPANN, 

CHIEF SCIENTIST, HELIOPHYSICS DIVISION, 

SCIENCE MISSION DIRECTORATE, 

NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION 

Dr. SPANN. Thank you. Members of the Subcommittee, as the 

Heliophysics Chief Scientist for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate, I am honored to appear before this Committee to discuss 

NASA’s contribution to understanding space weather phenomenon. 

Space weather is complex, involving intricate interactions between the Sun, solar wind, Earth’s magnetic field, and Earth’s atmosphere. NASA serves as a research organization for our nation’s 

space weather efforts, working with the National Science Foundation to understand space weather. Together, we help operational 

organizations, NOAA, and the Department of Defense incorporate 

that understanding into operational models and space weather predictions to better prepare the nation for potential impacts. 

Our ability to understand the Sun-Earth system is of growing 

importance to our nation’s economy, national security, and our society as it increasingly depends on technology. While the Sun enables 

and sustains life here on Earth, it produces radiation and magnetic 

energy that can have disruptive impacts in space, in air, and on 

the ground. 

Understanding the Sun-Earth system has practical implications 

for life on Earth. For example, the electric power industry is susceptible to geomagnetically induced currents, which can, without 

advanced warning, overload unprotected power grids and result in 

widespread power outages. In the spacecraft industry, intense geomagnetic and radiation storms have the capacity to disrupt normal 

operations such as satellite communication and television service. 

Space weather can cause irregularities in signals from GPS satellites, which can adversely affect our warfighters, first responders, 

truckers, oil drillers, large-scale farmers, and outdoor enthusiasts, 

pretty much everybody. Finally, the aviation industry is particularly susceptible to space weather events from both an operational 

and crew/passenger safety perspective. 

NASA’s heliophysics missions all contribute to understanding the 

physical processes that drive space weather. With locations 

throughout the solar system, we observe the Sun-Earth system 

every day using NASA’s Heliophysics Systems Observatory with 18 

active missions comprised of 28 spacecraft. At NASA, we’re extremely excited to see how our new missions will revolutionize our 

understanding of the Sun-Earth system and space weather. 

The recently launched GOLD mission and an upcoming ICON 

mission will improve our understanding of what is happening in 

the ionosphere, the region in the near-Earth space where significant space weather impacts occur. This summer, we’ll spend a 

spacecraft, Parker Solar Probe, closer to the Sun than ever before 

and dive into the Sun’s hot corona to provide the closest ever observations. She will reveal the fundamental science behind what 

drives the solar wind, which is the constant outpouring of material 
37 

from the Sun, and improve forecasts of major eruptions on the Sun, 

all of which affect space weather near the Earth. 

NASA’s Heliophysics Division is in the process of selecting its 

next strategic mission, the Decadal Survey priority IMAP. This 

mission will observe the boundary of our solar system and investigate acceleration processes critical to understanding space weather. As you’ve heard, NASA and NOAA are exploring a potential 

partnership to share IMAP’s launch vehicle with NOAA’s space 

weather follow-on mission. These new missions will join our existing fleet to enhance the already vibrant Heliophysics Systems Observatory. 

NASA supports world-class research based on data from these 

missions in order to understand the connections within our SunEarth system for science advancement and human safety both on 

Earth and beyond. This field of research is called heliophysics and 

provides the foundation upon which predictive models of space 

weather are built. To help mitigate space weather hazards posed 

to assets both in space and on the ground, NASA continues to develop and improve predictive models through enhanced fundamental understanding of space weather by funding competed basic 

research opportunities, which includes topics such as solar variability and ionosphere irregularities. 

NASA, in coordination with NOAA and NSF, has developed a 

cross-agency plan to enhance the transition of research models to 

operations. NASA has a pilot program to improve space weather 

products and services for research to operations which will draw on 

expertise in academia and in industry both in technology and 

knowledge. This program utilizes the established NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, a successful multiagency partnership that provides space science simulations to the research 

community and support our sister agencies by transitioning space 

research models to operations. 

NASA appreciates the continued support from this committee, 

which ensures that the United States maintains a superior position 

in understanding space weather and looks forward to the continued 

collaboration with our sister agencies, international partners, academia, and industry. 

NASA heliophysics has a big year in front of it. The data we receive from upcoming missions and from the existing Heliophysics 

Systems Observatory will vastly improve our understanding of this 

challenging phenomenon and enable improved predictive space 

weather models. Heliophysics research is intrinsically the science of 

space weather, and NASA is committed to remain the leader in 

that research. 

So I thank you now for the invitation to be here today, and I look 

forward to answering any questions that you may have. 

[The prepared statement of Dr. Spann follows:] 
38 

Statement of 

James Spann 

HOLD FOR RELEASE 

UNTIL PRESENTED BY WITNESS 

April 26, 2018 

Chief Scientist, Heliophysics Division 

Science Mission Directorate, NASA 

before the 

House Subcommittee on the Environment and the 

House Subcommittee on Space 

Committee on Science, Space and Technology 

United States House of Representatives 

Chairmen Biggs and Babin, Ranking Members Bonamici and Bera, and members of the 

Subcommittees: 

As the Hcliophysics Chief Scientist for NASA's Science Mission Directorate (SMD), I am 

honored to appear before this Committee to discuss NASA's contributions to understanding 

space weather phenomena. 

Space weather is complex, involving intricate interactions between the Sun, solar wind, Earth's 

magnetic field, and Earth's atmosphere. NASA serves as a research organization for our nation's 

space weather efforts, working with the National Science Foundation to enhance our scientific 

understanding of space weather. Together, we help the operational organizations of National 

Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Department of Defense (DOD) 

incorporate that understanding into operational models and space weather predictions to better 

prepare us for potential impacts. 

Our ability to understand the Sun-Earth system is of growing importance to our nation's 

economy and national security. While the Sun enables and sustains life here on Earth, it produces 

radiation and magnetic energy that can have disruptive impacts to astronauts and spacecraft in 

space, airline passengers in the air, communications and positioning devices, and the electrical 

power grid on Earth. Understanding the Sun-Earth system has practical implications for life on 

Earth. For example, the electric power industry is susceptible to geomagnetically-induced 

currents, which can overload unprotected power grids and result in widespread power outages. 

With warning, power grid operators may be able to adjust operations to counteract such effects. 

In the spacecraft industry, intense geomagnetic and radiation storms have the capacity to disrupt 

normal operations such as satellite communication and television service. Space weather can 

cause irregularities in signals from Global Positioning System satellites, which can adversely 

affect our warfighters, first responders, long-haul truckers and outdoor enthusiasts. Finally, the 

aviation industry is particularly susceptible to space weather events from both an operational and 

safety perspective. Communications between flights taking polar routes and air traffic control 

could be disrupted due to interference between the radio waves and the effects of space weather 
39 

in the ionosphere. In addition, flight routes may be re-routed further south during solar weather 

events to reduce the radiation exposure to passengers and crew. 

NASA's Heliophysics missions all contribute to understanding the physical processes that drive 

the environment of the connected Sun-Earth system. With locations throughout the solar system, 

we observe the Sun-Earth system everyday using NASA's Heliophysics System Observatory, 

with 18 active missions comprised of28 spacecraft. 

At NASA, we are excited to see how new missions will revolutionize our understanding of the 

Sun-Earth System and space weather. The recently launched Global-seale Observations of the 

Limb and Disk (GOLD) mission and the upcoming Ionospheric Connection (ICON) mission will 

improve our understanding of what is happening in the ionosphere. The ionosphere is a littleunderstood region where the Earth's uppermost atmosphere meets the space that surrounds usa critical boundary that responds both to terrestrial weather below and space weather above. 

Placed in different orbits, GOLD and ICON will each get a unique snapshot of the same region 

in the ionosphere. This overlap will enhance our ability to identify what causes certain changes 

to the upper atmosphere that cause space weather impacts. 

This summer, we will send the Parker Solar Probe closer to the Sun than any human-made object 

has ever gone, and it will dive into the Sun's hot corona to provide the closest-ever observations. 

Throughout its seven-year mission, while facing brutal heat and radiation, the mission will reveal 

the fundamental science behind what drives the solar wind, which is the constant outpouring of 

material from the Sun that afl'ects space weather near Earth. Parker Solar Probe will explore the 

Sun's outer atmosphere and make critical observations necessary to improve forecasts of major 

eruptions on the Sun and the subsequent space weather events that impact our technology 

dependent lives. 

Also launching this summer, the Space Environment Testbed 1 mission, a technology 

demonstration mission developed in partnership with the Air Force, will improve the engineering 

approaches to mitigation and accommodations for the effects of solar variability on spacecraft 

design and operations. The mission will also provide important data to improve hardware 

performance in the space radiation environment. 

NASA's Heliophysics Division is in the process of selecting its next strategic mission, a Dccadal 

Survey priority, the Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP). IMAP will observe the 

boundary of our solar system and investigate acceleration processes critical to understanding 

space weather. NASA and NOAA are exploring a potential partnership to use the same launch 

vehicle for !MAP and a NOAA space weather monitoring payload. The partnership would 

provide NOAA access to the Ll Lagrange point for future space weather monitoring. 

These new missions will join our existing fleet to enhance the already vibrant Heliophysics 

System Observatory, which all contribute to better understanding the physical processes that are 

driving the space environment around Earth and throughout the solar system. The following 

missions are particularly focused on improving our understanding of space weather: the 

Advanced Composition Explorer and NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory, which observe 

the solar wind; the Solar Dynamics Observatory, the Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory, 

2 
40 

the joint ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, which can all observe solar eruptions 

on the Sun; and the Van Allen Probes, which observes the radiation belts around Earth. 

NASA supports world-class research based on these missions and other sources, to understand 

the connections within the Sun-Earth system, for science and human safety, both on Earth and 

beyond. Heliophysics research provides a foundation to build predictive models of space weather 

events, mitigate the hazards posed to assets both in space and on the ground, and understand 

space weather impacts throughout the solar system. NASA continues to develop and improve 

predictive models through enhanced fundamental understanding of space weather through 

funding basic and targeted research opportunities. NASA research opportunities reflect the 

general and focused science topics that are associated with space weather phenomena, which 

include understanding solar variability, and how it drives phenomena in the space environment 

near Earth, where space weather can have its most significant impacts on spacecraft, 

communications, and positioning devices. NASA, in coordination with NOAA and NSF, has 

developed a cross-agency plan to enhance the transition of research models to operations and 

models in operations to researchers. 

The NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), is a successful multi-agency 

partnership that provides space science simulations to the research community. The CCMC plays 

a key role in supporting our sister agencies by transitioning space research models to space 

weather operations. Furthermore, in coordination with NOAA and NSF, we have initiated a pilot 

program to expand the interagency capability and improve space weather products and services 

for Research to Operations and Operations to Research (R202R). 

NASA appreciates the continued support from this committee, which ensures that the United 

States maintains a superior position in understanding space weather, and looks forward to the 

continued collaboration with our sister agencies, international partners, academia, and industry. 

NASA Heliophysics has a big year in front of it. The data we receive from upcoming NASA's 

Heliophysics missions and data we already collect from the Heliophysics System Observatory, 

will vastly improve our understanding of this challenging phenomena. The research these 

missions enable continues to develop and improve predictive models through enhanced 

understanding of the science of space weather. Heliophysics research is intrinsically the science 

of space weather. NASA is committed to remain the leader of that research. 

Thank you for the invitation to be here with you today, and I look forward to answering any 

questions you may have. 

3 
41 

Dr. James Spann currently serves as the Chief Scientist of the Heliophysics 

Division in the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters. He received 

his BS degree in Mathematics and Physics from Ouachita Baptist University, and 

his Ph.D. degree in Physics from the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. In 

1986, Dr. Spann joined NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, 

Alabama, where he has held numerous positions, including Chief Scientist and 

Manager of the Science Research Office. Dr. Spann is a native of Fort Worth, 

Texas. 
42 

Chairman BIGGS. Thank you, Dr. Spann. 

I now recognize Dr. Gibson for five minutes for her testimony. 

TESTIMONY OF DR. SARAH GIBSON, 

SENIOR SCIENTIST, HIGH ALTITUDE OBSERVATORY, 

NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC 

RESEARCH AND CO-CHAIR, 

COMMITTEE ON SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS, 

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE 

Dr. GIBSON. Thank you very much. 

My intent is to provide context for your discussion of space 

weather and to argue for moving forward with legislation as soon 

as possible. 

In brief, the points that I wish to convey today are as follows: 

First of all, space weather has broad and potentially devastating 

impacts on the nation; second, there are fundamental scientific 

questions that are central to space weather that remain unanswered; third, space weather research and operations are 

observationally starved; fourth, the path forward requires strategic 

actions that emphasize both efficiency and agility; and finally, 

space weather legislation is needed now. 

First of all, space weather happens all of the time. We’re living 

in the outer atmosphere of our Sun, which is continuously expanding outwards as the solar wind and passing the Earth as an unceasing stream of charged particles. On a regular basis, dense, fast, 

and strongly magnetized particles are buffeting the Earth and 

breaking through its magnetic shield. 

In the past, this would just mean that we would see auroras, but 

now, technology has made us vulnerable. As you’ve heard, geomagnetic activity induces ground currents and impacts power 

grids. Perturbations of the upper atmosphere disrupt GPS, 

radiocommunication, and increase the risk of collisions for the 

International Space Station and for satellites in low-Earth orbit. 

Radiation storms knock out satellite function, increase the exposure of airplane passenger and crew on polar routes, and are particularly dangerous for our astronauts as they venture forth to the 

moon and Mars. 

Space weather has the potential to be really bad. The Carrington 

event of 1859 was so big it led to auroras as far south as Cuba and 

sparked fires along telegraph lines. It’s been estimated that a modern superstorm of this size would cost tens of billions of dollars per 

day, potentially reaching totals in the trillions of dollars from extended power outages and global supply chain disruptions. 

Even when it’s not a superstorm, space weather is a problem. 

Analysis of insurance claims associated with power grid disruptions 

estimated costs on the order of $10 billion per year for the United 

States for non-extreme events, and even moderate space weather 

increases risk for serious hazards, as I have described. 

So what do we know? Well, we know that space weather comes 

from the Sun. Solar flares have an almost immediate effect at the 

Earth, and then mass and magnetic fields are hurled out into the 

solar wind, hitting the Earth a day or two later. The devil is in the 

details. We don’t know what triggers the solar eruption. We don’t 
43 

know how things change from Sun to Earth, and we don’t know 

what exactly to expect when it gets here. There is still much to 

learn about the fundamental physical processes and the complex 

interactions from Sun to Earth. 

Our best bet for filling the gaps in our understanding are more 

observations. For tackling basic science problems, this includes 

higher-quality observations, as well as new types of observations 

and from new viewpoints. For operational forecasts and monitoring, 

the requirements are different. There the emphasis is on observations we can analyze quickly and that are consistent and reliable. 

The legislation, as presented in the Senate and proposed House 

bills, provide a good framework for progress. The bills enable research, for example, through multidisciplinary science centers to 

solve the fundamental problems that will then lead to better forecasting capability. They extend our observational assets, both for 

filling the science gaps and to protect our baseline for operations. 

They also lay out the roles and the responsibility for the different 

government agencies, which leads to more efficient use of national 

resources and to better protection of our nation. 

They promote further efficiency through seeking leveraging opportunities from outside the government, including the international, the commercial, and the academic sectors. An example of 

this: our prime operational research, the LASCO Coronagraph is on 

the SOHO satellite, which is a collaboration of NASA and the European Space Agency. Another example, the NASA GOLD mission, 

was launched on a commercial communications satellite. 

And finally, the proposed legislation promotes an agile and necessarily open-ended approach to capitalizing on innovations from 

and interactions with these nongovernmental groups. 

In summary, we are an increasingly technological society, and we 

cannot afford to ignore space weather. If we delay action, we run 

multiple risks. We run the risk of being unprepared for a 

superstorm. We run the risk of failure of our operational assets. 

LASCO is 23 years old, and that would degrade even our current 

forecasting capability. And then there’s the costs and the risks associated with even moderate space weather. Every day we wait, we 

waste time and money and we roll the dice on our safety. 

[The prepared statement of Dr. Gibson follows:] 
44 

Statement of Dr. Sarah E. Gibson 

National Center for Atmospheric Research Senior Scientist 

High Altitude Observatory Solar Frontiers Section Head 

Co-chair, Committee on Solar and Space Physics 

Space Studies Board, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine 

Before the Joint Subcommittees on Space and Environment 

Committee on Science, Space, and Technology 

U.S. House of Representatives 

April 26. 2018 

Mr. Chairmen, Ranking Minority members, and members of the Subcommittees, I want to thank 

you for the opportunity to testify today at this hearing on "Surveying the Space Weather 

Landscape". My name is Sarah Gibson and I am a Senior Scientist at the National Center for 

Atmospheric Research and a co-chair of the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Solar 

and Space Physics. The views presented here are my own, and are based on my professional 

experience in the field of Heliophysics. the science at the heart of Space Weather. 

The particular intent of this testimony is to provide context for your discussion of space weather 

legislation, and to argue for moving forward with said legislation as soon as possible. I work in 

Boulder, Colorado, which is a nexus of space-weather research and operations'. I was pleased to 

see that my state's Senator Gardner co-sponsored the Senate space weather bill that passed last 

year (S.\41 ), along with Senators Booker and Wicker, and that now the House space weather bill 

(H.R.3086) has been introduced by Colorado's Mr. Perlmutter, along with Ms. Johnson and Mr. 

Bridenstine. Space weather is fundamentally an issue of safety and protection of life and 

property, and as such, it is no surprise that it crosses party lines. 

In brief, the points I wish to make today are as follows: 

• Space weather has broad and potentially devastating impacts on the Nation. 

• Fundamental scientific questions, central to space weather, remain unanswered. 

• Space-weather research and operations are observationally starved. 

• The path forward requires strategic actions that emphasize efficiency and agility. 

• Legislation is needed now. 

1 Just a few examples of institutes participating in space weather activities in the Boulder area include: NCAR's 

High Altitude Observatory, the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA, the USGS geomagnetism program, the 

National Solar Observatory the recently formed Space Weather Technologv, Research and Education Center at the 

University of Colorado, the Atmospheric and Space Technologv Research Associates, the Boulder offices of the 

Southwest Research Institute and Northwest Research Associates, and aerospace companies including Ball 

Aerospace and Sierra Nevada Comoration. 
45 

1. Space weather has broad and potential(v devastating impacts on the Nation. 

We are living inside the atmosphere of our star, the Sun. That atmosphere continually expands 

outwards as the solar wind, passing the Earth in an unceasing stream of charged particles. It is 

variable in nature, and, on a regular basis, dense, fast, and strongly magnetized gusts buffet the 

Earth. Luckily, the Earth's atmosphere and its own magnetic field act as shields that protect us 

and our technology from direct exposure to this solar wind. However, the Earth's magnetic shield 

is neither static, rigid. nor indestructible, and the strongest solar wind gusts can and do frequently 

break through. 

When they do, interactions between the magnetic fields in the solar wind and those of the Earth 

result in one of the most common forms of space weather: geomagnetic activity. Until the last 

century or so this meant only that humans were treated to the spectacle of beautiful auroras. With 

the advent of technology, however, new vulnerabilities emerged. 

In 1859, Richard Carrington was observing a particularly complicated group of sunspots 

projected from his telescope onto a screen, when he saw two brilliant spots of white light appear 

and brighten on top of the otherwise dark sunspots. This was unusual --only the very brightest 

solar flares are visible in this manner-- but what made this astronomical observation particularly 

significant was that Carrington subsequently connected the solar flare to the strong geomagnetic 

activity observed the following day, when the storm reached the Earth. The storm was so strong 

that auroras were seen as far equatorward as Cuba and El Salvador, and -- marking the first 

recorded impact of space weather on our nascent technology -- fires were sparked along 

telegraph lines. 

Now, with our increasingly technological society, our vulnerability to this type of space weather 

is much higher. Geomagnetic activity induces ground currents that interfere with our power 

grids (Knipp, 20 15). In the event of a '"Carrington-level" storm, cascading transformer failures, 

power outages, and disruptions of global supply chains could cost the U. S. tens of billions of 

dollars per day (Oughton et al., 20 17), with long-term global costs potentially reaching trillions 

of dollars (Schulte in den Baumen et al., 2014; see also National Research Council, 2008). 

Geomagnetically-induced ground currents represent just one of several hazards associated with 

space weather. A variety of ionospheric disturbances may also occur, affecting global 

navigation and communications. This introduces wide-ranging costs and risks: a particularly 

trenchant example occured in 1967, when space weather disrupted radar and radio 

communication in a manner that was initially interpreted by the U. S. military as a possibly 

hostile act by the Soviet Union (Knipp et al., 2016). 
46 

Disturbances of the upper atmosphere also pose difficulties for the International Space Station 

and other satellites in low-altitude orbit (Oiiveiros ct al., 2017). The atmospheric drag on such 

assets change in unexpected ways, impacting calculations of satellite trajectories that are critical 

for avoiding collisions. Radiation storms also often occur with large solar storms, posing a 

danger to both astronaut health and satellite function. The threat is highest away from the Earth's 

protective shields, and deep-space missions --for example to the moon or other planets -- must 

be prepared for hazardous levels of radiation. 

As with terrestrial weather, space weather can range in severity -- from minor squalls occurring 

multiple times per year, to larger storms that strike once or twice per !!-year solar cycle, to 

I 00-year Carrington-level stom1s, and, possibly, to storms surpassing anything experienced in 

modern times (particularly with regards to radiation hazards) (Schrijver and Beer, 2014). There 

are costs even for the smallest of these events: for example, an assessment of insurance claims 

attributable to variations in the power grid suggests that the impacts of non-extreme geomagnetic 

activity may be as large as 10 billion dollars per year for the U.S. alone (Schrijver eta!., 20 14). 

Space weather and associated e~:onomic and societal impacts run the gamut from frequent 

and small (yet still costly) events, to rare (but potentially globally-disastrous) snperstorms. 

Figure 1. (Left) An Xl.6 class solar flare flashes in the middle of the Sun and is observed by the Solar 

Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA). (Right) The Solar and Heliospheric 

Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (SOHOILASCO) observes a coronal mass 

ejection (CME) as a bright tangled structure exploding out into the solar wind. The white circle indicates 

the size and position of the solar disk, which is blocked so that the Sun's outer atmosphere, or corona, can 

be seen (thus, the coronagraph mimics a solar eclipse). (Image credits: NASA/ESA) 
47 

2. Fundamental scientific questions, central to space weather, remain unanswered. 

The ultimate source of space weather is the Sun. Flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) 

(Figure l) are both manifestations of a solar eruption. The flare is the flash of light released as 

the eruption is triggered; it drives radio blackouts at the Earth almost immediately. The CME is 

the subsequent launch of mass outward into the solar wind; it can lead to geomagnetic activity a 

day or two later. Both contribute to ionospheric disturbances. satellite tracking problems. and 

radiation storms. 

Ultimately, we would like to be able to predict solar eruptions before they happen. We know that 

they occur in regions that are magnetically-energized (for example, complex groups of sunspots) 

and some progress has been made in identifying observational signatures of this energization. 

However. we still do not know what triggers the eruptions. which significantly limits our 

capability for prediction. 

So, in general. we wait until an eruption occurs. and then hope to provide warning at least in 

advance of any geomagnetic activity. Unfortunately. we do not know with certainty how severe 

the space weather impacts at the Earth will be. The likelihood that aCME will break the Earth's 

magnetic shield depends on the CME's magnetic strength and orientation. To know this, we 

have to quantify the original 3D magnetic configuration at the Sun, and then understand how it 

erupts and how the resulting CME interacts with the solar wind as it travels from Sun to Earth. If 

we get the magnetic orientation backwards, we run the risk of false positives that trigger 

unnecessary mitigative steps in preparation for an event that tums out to be minor. 

Even if we were able to predict the solar storm in advance. and even if we were able to specify 

the magnetic structure of the CME as it reaches the Earth. we would still be limited in our ability 

to forecast when. where, and how strongly ground currents. upper atmospheric disturbances. and 

radiation storms would occur. Fundamental physical processes such as magnetic reconnection 

and particle acceleration --both of which are areas of active research --must be taken into 

consideration, along with complex interactions between the Earth's upper atmosphere, space 

environment, and solar wind. 

In the words of the recent international Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Space Weather 

Road Map (Schrijver et al.. 2015 ). "The domain ofspace weather is vast- extendingfrom deep 

within the Sun tofar outside the planetmy orbits- and the physics complex- including 

couplings between various t;pes of physical processes that/ink scales and domains from the 

microscopic to large parts oft he solar system.'' 
48 

Accurately forecasting space weather requires an understanding of all the links in the physical 

chain from Sun to Earth. At present, there are multiple conceptual gaps along that chain. Many 

are in fact the very same key science challenges, from Sun to Earth, that were identified in our 

field's last Decadal Survey (Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society, 

National Research Council, 2013). The gaps in our understanding lie at the bleeding edge of 

fundamental scientific research in Heliophysics, and represent problems that must be 

tackled if we wish to advance beyond our current forecasting capability. 

Figure 2. Taking a side view, instruments on board NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft track aCME as it 

evolves between Sun (on the right of the image) and Earth (the blue dot to the left), and connect image 

data directly to measurements at Earth at the time of impact. The images at the right are obtained near the 

Sun and deformed to enable tracking the CME structure through space The gauge on the left shows solar 

wind density measured by NASA's WIND spacecraft spiking as the CME passes the Earth. 

Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/SwRl/STEREO/WlND; DeForest et al., 2013; 

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.govivisiaO 1 0000/aO 1 0800/aO 1 0809iindex.html. 

3. Space-weather research and operations are observationally starved. 

Our best bet for filling the gaps in our scientific understanding of the space-weather chain is 

through observations'. For example, the question of how the CME changes en route from Sun to 

Earth is one that could be addressed by directly observing its progress, as shown in Figure 2. 

2 ''If the matter is one that can be settled by observation. make the observation yourself Aristotle could have 

avoided the mistake of thinking that women have fewer teeth than men, by the simple device of asking Mrs. Aristotle 

to keep her mouth open while he counted" -- Bertrand Russell 
49 

These observations were taken by one of NASA's t\VO STEREO spacecraft, which precede and 

follow the Earth in its orbit around the Sun. The views from STEREO are thus complementary 

to those from the Earth, but are continuously changing. At the time of this event, STEREO had a 

side-angle view of the Sun-Earth line that was particularly appropriate for space-weather 

monitoring. 

This raises an important point. The observational needs for solving fundamental scientific 

questions are not necessarily the same as those for day-to-day forecasting (i.e., space-weather 

operations). If we want to figure out the physical processes acting on aCME as it moves 

through the solar wind. it does not necessarily matter if the CME we observe is aimed at the 

Earth, but we do require high- resolution, spatially-continuous observations. If we arc making 

space-weather operational forecasts, we could greatly benefit from the side-angle view of the 

Sun-Earth line, but we also require near-real-time. consistent and reliable observations. The 

example shown in Figure 2 is compelling, but offers only a fleeting glimpse of what is needed, 

and docs not fully satisfy either type of needs. Moreover. it represents just one example of the 

broad range of observations from Sun to Earth required for progress in both space-weather 

research and operations. 

Observations arc not only needed to fi II gaps in fundamental research, but also in applied 

research. An example of this is found in the benchmarking activities that arc currently being 

undertaken to quantify the potential severity of space-weather hazards'. Comprehensive 

observations are needed to make these assessments, which in some cases are not currently 

available. For example, assessing geo-electric field benchmarks requires characterizing both 

geomagnetism and ground conductivity. but gaps in observational coverage prevent accurate 

estimates across much of the continental United States (Love ct al., 2016). 

In terms of operations, there are a few, critical. measurements that we know we need: for 

example, the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph observations of CMEs (e.g., Figure I, right) represent 

the first definite sign of an approaching storm, and can be used to estimate arrival time and, to 

some extent, the size of the storm. Measurements just upstream of the Earth, e,g, at the Ll 

Lagrange point4 between the Sun and Earth. act as the "canary in the coal mine .. and provide a 

much more accurate characterization of how big the storm will be. with however only about an 

hour (or less) of warning. It is no wonder that these two measurements in particular are 

'https://www.ofcm.gov/publications/spacewx/DRAFT_SWx_Phase_l_Benchmarks.pdf 

4 The Lagrange points referred to here are locations where a spacecraft can maintain its position relative to the Sun 

and Earth, and so obtain essentially continuous observations from one (reasonably) stable vantage. Of particular 

interest to space-weather are the L I poin~ which lies along the Sun-Earth line and so samples the solar wind in 

advance of its hitting the Earth; and the L4 and L5 points, which give views from either side of the Sun-Earth line 

and so enable the imaging of Earth-directed CMEs (similar to the view shown in Figure 2). 
50 

emphasized as essential in the Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP)5

, and that there is concern 

regarding their future availability. Beyond this, various solar observations (including from 

ground-based telescopes) along with measurements of the Earth's upper atmosphere and space 

environment are routinely ingested into space-weather operational models, and ground 

magnetometer networks and neutron monitors are used for situational awareness of the 

geomagnetic and radiative environment. 

But could we have a better, earlier forecast of storm strength if, for example, we had a 

continuous side-angle view ofCMEs as they move along the Sun-Earth line? Or if we did a 

better job of measuring the magnetic field of the CME before it left the Sun (Tomczyk et al, 

20 16)? In truth. it is not yet clear exactly what the optimal set of observations are for forecasting 

and monitoring space weather. 

To summarize: the gaps in our fundamental scientific understanding motivate new, cutting-edge 

observations of the sort presented in our Decadal Survey. The usefulness of these new 

observations for operational forecasts can then be assessed through applied research, potentially 

identifying new targeted observations needed to achieve specific operational goals. This 

represents one important aspect of a Research-to-Operations/Operations-to-Research 

(R20-02R) feedback loop (a similar argument can be made with regards to the development of 

the computer models used in space-weather forecasting). The goal is an operationally 

relevant, scientifically sound approach to space-weather forecasting; however, currently the 

observations that support both the research and operations elements of space weather are 

insufficient and/or at risk. 

4. The path forward requires strategic actions that emphasize efficiency and agili~v. 

A key motivation for the National Space Weather Strategy, stated both in its current form6 and in 

the recent call for its update 7

, is the improvement of government coordination. Laying out roles 

and responsibility for the different government agencies enables strategic coordination, and 

through this, a more efficient use of national resources. 

Further efficiency comes from leveraging opportunities that arise outside of U.S. government 

agencies. in particular from the international, commercial, and academic sectors. An example of 

the benefit of international collaboration specific to the space-weather arena is the LASCO 

5 Space Weather Action Plan (https:!/www.sworm.gov.·publications 2015 '""P final 0 0151 028.pd0, Section 5.3 

"Establish and Sustain a Baseline Observational Capability for Space-Weather Operations' 6

https:/ I obamawhitehousc .archives.gov /sites/ default/files/microsi tes/ ostp/final_ nationalspaceweatherstrategy _ 20 151 

028.pdf 

'https:l /www. federalregister.gov I documents/20 I 8/04/20/20 18-083 3 61 developing-an-update-to-the-national-space-we 

ather-strategy 
51 

coronagraph, so critical to operations. LASCO is an instrument on board the SOHO satellite, a 

collaboration between NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). CutTently, ESA is 

considering a mission at the L5 Lagrange point trailing the Earth, which would provide a view of 

CMEs on the Sun-Earth line, highly complementary to U.S. assets at the Earth and upstream L I 

point. Commercial opportunities have similarly benefited space weather activities. An example 

is NASA's GOLD mission to study the cause of dense, unpredictable bubbles of charged gas that 

appear over the equator and tropics in the Earth's upper atmosphere, sometimes causing 

communications breakdowns. GOLD is a hosted payload aboard a commercial communications 

satellite (SES-14). Ground-based observations relevant to space-weather science are also 

obtained in collaboration with the international. commercial and academic communities. 

These communities have also played, and can continue to play, the absolutely essential role of 

disruptor. A classic example from the commercial arena is the technological development of 

small satellites. Both the academic and commercial communities act as an extended work force 

for the national space-weather enterprise-- analyzing agency observations, helping to build 

modeling frameworks and operational tools, and playing key roles in R20/02R development. 

International space-weather research and operations is also a growth area around the world, and 

open exchange of ideas and observations across borders promotes best practices and creative 

approaches. The sheer diversity of players introduces an organic, unpredictable element to the 

process. Where will the next good idea emerge'? By being open to new ideas. and promoting a 

broad range of interactions, we maximize the benefit to the Nation. 

Space weather affects life and property, so an efficient, coordinated public policy is needed 

and warranted to ensure that the Nation is safe, Beyond this, we need an agile approach 

that leverages external opportunities and is open to innovation. 

5. Legislation is needed now. 

We are an increasingly technological society, and space weather cannot be ignored. 

Space-weather scientific research and operations is a growing, but still young field-- it is often 

stated that our current space-weather forecast capabilities are akin to terrestrial-weather forecast 

capabilities of several decades ago. The problems we face are complex and multidisciplinary, 

but with coordinated and targeted actions. we stand to make significant progress. I am reminded 

of the words of the Solar and Space Physics Decadal Survey "DRIVE" initiative: ''Relatively 

low-cost activities that mcvdmize the scientific return of ongoing projects and enable new ones 

are both essential and cost-ejfective."'8 

8

1\iational Research Council (20 13 ): Chapter 4 
52 

The various coordinating activities of the Space Weather Operations. Research. and Mitigation 

(SWORM) Task Force have given us a clear path forward. The actions that have been outlined 

in the Space Weather Action Plan represent the first steps along that path. To make certain that 

we continue onwards to where we need to go. we now need legislation. I believe that H.R. 3086 

provides a good framework for progress. In particular, it strikes a good balance between 

promoting coordinated actions of government agencies to act as a bulwark protecting the Nation, 

and maintaining a (necessarily) open-ended approach to ensure that good ideas and opportunities 

from outside the government are considered and pursued. 

If we delay action. we run multiple risks. The obvious one is that we will be woefully unprepared 

when a superstorm hits. Another all-too-obvious risk is that LASCO, the sentinel coronagraph 

monitoring CMEs from the SOHO satellite-- along with related assets sitting at the upstream Ll 

point-- could fail before they are replaced, leading to substantial backslide in our current 

monitoring and forecasting skill. Beyond this, the impacts of even moderate space weather are 

costly. and every day we wait to improve upon our scientific understanding and operational 

capabilities. we waste time and money. 

Finally. I am speaking as an individual. but in preparation for this hearing I have spoken to many 

people in my field, and attempted to "take the temperature" of the community. The 

overwhelming impression I gathered from this exercise is that the space-weather community 

feels that we must keep the momentum going. I personally feel that there is a very real risk of 

''dropping the ball'' if we do not move forward with legislation soon. Space weather is an 

urgent national issue, and it is time to take legislative action. 
53 

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low corona to Earth: A quantitative analysis of the 2008 December 12 Coronal Mass Ejection, 

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Knipp. D. J .. Ramsay, A. C., Beard, E. D., Boright. A. L., Cade, W. B .. Hewins, I. M .. 

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Geoelectric hazard maps for the continental United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43( 18). 

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10, 

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Schrijvcr. C. J., and J. Beer (2014) Space Weather From Explosions on the Sun: How Bad Could 

It Be?. EOS Transactions. 95.201-202, doi:10.1002/2014E024000l 

Schrijver. C. J., R. Dobbins, W. Murtagh, and S. M. Petrinec (20 14) Assessing the impact of 

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Schrijver, C. J., Kauristie, K., Aylward, A. D., Denardini, C. M .. Gibson, S., Glover, A., 

Gopalswamy, N. Grande, M., Hapgood, M., Hcyndcrickx, D., Jakowski, N., Kalegaev, V. V., 

Lapenta, G., Linker, J. A., Liu, S., Mandrini, C. H., Mann, I. R., Nagatsuma, T., Nandy, D., 

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55 

SARAH E GIBSON 

Professional Preparation 

Stanford University 

University of Colorado 

University of Colorado 

Physics 

Astrophysics 

Astrophysics 

BS 

MS 

PhD 

1989 

1993 

1995 

Thesis Title The large-scale structure of the solar minimum corona 

Research Interests Dr. Gibson's research examines solar drivers of the terrestrial 

environment, from short-term space weather drivers such as coronal mass ejections, to long-term 

solar cycle variation, with emphasis on the Sun-Earth system at solar minimum. 

Appointments 

2/01 - Present 

2/00 1/01 

1/99 1/00 

4/98- 1/99 

4/96 4/98 

10/95 4/96 

Scientist (Senior Scientist/Section Head since 7/12), HAO/NCAR 

Research Assistant Professor in Physics, Catholic University of America 

NSF-NATO Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Cambridge 

Research Assistant Professor in Physics, Catholic University of America 

NRC Associate, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center 

NCAR Postdoctoral Associate HAO/NCAR 

Selected Professional Activities 

2017-

2017-2018 

2015-2018 

2018-2020 

2013-2019 

2017-

2009-2018. 

2016-2017 

2014-2016 

2013-2014 

2010-2011 

2008-2011 

2007-2013 

Co-chair: Committee on Solar and Space Physics (Nat. Acad.) 

Project Scientist: PUNCH (NASA SMEX Phase A Study) 

IAU Division E (Sun and Heliosphere) Vice President 

Chair: Solar Physics Editorial Board (board member since 2016) (Springer) 

Member: Space Studies Board (Ex. Com. since 2016; Nat. Acad.) 

Member Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope Science Working Group (Nat. Sol. Obs.) 

Graduate Faculty Appointment University of Colorado-- Lecturer 

Member: Next Generation Solar Physics Mission Study Team (NASA/JAXA/ESA) 

Editor: Frontiers in Astron. and Space Sci. Topical Issue on Coronal Magnetometry 

Chair: ISS! international science team on coronal magnetism 

Member, Steering Committee of Solar and Space Physics Decadal Survey 

Scientific Editor, Astrophysical Journal 

Member/Vice-chair, Solar Observatories Council to the AURA Board (NSF) 

Professional Affiliations 

American Geophysical Union; American Astronomical Society; International Astronomical Union; 

Committee on Space Research 

Honors/ Awards 

2005 Harvey Prize American Astronomical Society (Solar Physics Division) 
56 

Selected Educational/Mentoring Activities 

2017- Graduate student research advisor: Nathaniel Mathews 

2017-2018 Postdoctoral supervisor: Jic Zhao 

2016-2017 Postdoctoral supervisor: Anna Malanushenko 

2014-2017 Postdoctoral supervisor: Kevin Dalmasse 

2009-20 II Postdoctoral supervisor: Laurel Rachmeler 

20 I 0-2012 Postdoctoral supervisor: Liang Zhao 

2007-2012 Graduate student research advisor: Donald Schmit 

2007/2018 Mentor for multiple undergraduate summer students 

Selected Publications 

S. E. Gibson, Kucera, T. A., White, S. M., Dove, J. B., Fan, Y., Forland, B. C., Rachmelcr, L. A., 

Downs, C. and Reeves, K. K., FORWARD: A Toolset for Coronal Magnctomctry, Front. 

Astron. Space Sci., http://gx.dqj.org/l 0.3389/fspas.20 16.00008,_2016. 

S. E. Gibson. Dalmassc, K., Rachmeler, L.A., De Rosa, M. L., Tomczyk, S., de Toma, G., 

Burkepile, J., and Galloy, M. Magnetic nulls and super-radial expansion in the solar corona, 

Astrophysical Journal Letters, 840, 2, Ll3, 2017 

S. E. Gibson, Coronal cavities: Observations and implications for the magnetic environment of 

prominences, Solar Prominences, 0. Engvold and J.-C. Vial eds., Astrophysics and Space 

Science Library, Volume 415, ISBN-978-3-319-1 0415-7, Springer, Switzerland, 323, 2015 

S. E. Gibson, T. A. Kucera, D. Rastawicki, J. Dove, G. de Toma, J. !lao, S. Hill, H. S. Hudson, C. 

Marque, P. S. Mcintosh, L. Rachmeler, K. K. Reeves, B. Schmieder, D. J. Schmit, D. B. 

Seaton, A. C. Sterling, D. Tripathi, D. R. Williams, and M. Zhang, Three-dimensional 

morphology of a coronal prominence cavity, ApJ, 724, 1133, 20 I 0. 

S. E. Gibson, Kozyra, J. U., De Toma, G., Emery. B. A., Onsager, T., and Thompson, B. J., If the 

Sun is so quiet, why is the Earth ringing? A comparison of two solar minimum intervals, 

JGR, 114, A09105, 2009 

S. E. Gibson & Y. Fan, Partially-ejected flux ropes_: implications for inter:planetary coronal mass 

ejections, JGR, 113, CitelD A 09103. 2008. 

S. E. Gibson, Y. Fan, T. Toeroek, and B. Klicm. The evolving sigmoid: evidence for magnetic 

flux ropes before, during, and after CMEs. Space Science Reviews, 124, 131, 2006. 

S. E. Gibson & Y. Fan. The partial expulsion of a magnetic flux rope. Astrophys. Journ. Leu., 

637L, 65. 2006. 

S. E. Gibson, D. Foster, J. Burkepile, G. de Toma, & A. Stanger, The calm before the storm: the 

link between quiescent cavities and CMEs, ApJ, 641, 590, 2006 

S. E. Gibson,Y. Fan, C. Mandrini, G. Fisher, and P. Demoulin. Observational consequences of a 

magnetic flux rope emerging into the corona. Astrophys. Journ., 617, 600, 2004. 

S. E. Gibson, L. Fletcher, D. Alexander, D. A. Biesecker, J. Burkepile, G. Del Zanna, P. Demoulin, 

C. Mandrini, !!. E. Mason, Y. Liu, N. Nitta, C. D. Pike, J. Qiu, Y.-K. Ko, B. Schmieder, and 

B. J. Thompson. Sigmoid structure and evolution: Results from the third Whole Sun Month 

campaign. Astrophys. Jown, 574, 1021, 2002. 

S. E. Gibson, Global solar wind structure from solar minimum to solar maximum: Sources and 

evolution. Space Science Reviews, 97, 1/4, 69,2001 

S. E. Gibson & B. C. Low. A time-dependent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model of 

the coronal mass ejection. Astrophys. Journ., 493, 460, 1998. 

2 
57 

SARAH E. GIBSON 

Dr. Sarah Gibson is a Senior Scientist in the High Altitude Observatory (IIAO) at the National 

Center for Atmospheric Research, and Section Head ofHAO's Solar Frontiers Section. Dr. 

Gibson received her Bachelor's Degree in Physics from Stanford University, and her Masters 

and Doctoral Degrees in Astrophysics from the University of Colorado. 

Dr. Gibson's research centers on solar drivers of the terrestrial environment, from short-term 

space weather drivers such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), to long-term solar cycle variation. 

Dr. Gibson uses theoretical models to understand the magnetic origins of CMEs and related 

space weather phenomena. Dr. Gibson has led International Space Science Institute 

(Switzerland) International Teams on the subjects of Prominence Cavities and Coronal 

Magnetism. She is the primary author of the FORWARD suite of SolarSoft IDL codes for 

model-data comparison, and is currently coordinating efforts to quantify the magnetic tield of the 

Sun's atmosphere in the form of a Data-Optimized Coronal Field Model (DOCFM). 

Dr. Gibson also led the international Whole Sun Month and Whole Heliosphcrc Interval 

coordinated observing and modeling efforts to characterize the three-dimensional, interconnected 

solar-hcliospheric-planetary system at solar minimum, and an International Astronomical Union 

(IAU) Working Group on Comparative Solar Minimum to promote analyses of the degree and 

nature of variations within and between minima. She is currently involved in project to archive 

and analyze multi-decadal solar observational records. 

Dr. Gibson was the recipient of the American Astronomical Society - Solar Physics Division 

2005 Karen Harvey Prize. She was a Scientific Editor for the Astrophysical Journal and has 

served on many national and international committees. She is currently a member of Executive 

Committee of the National Academics' Space Studies Board and co-chair of its Committee on 

Solar and Space Physics, and is Vice President of the !AU Division E (Sun and Heliosphere). 

Dr. Gibson is committed to education and public outreach. She gave the lirst of NCAR's 

50'11 anniversary public lectures, participated in the NOVA episode "Secrets of the Sun" and 

NBC Learn's "When Nature Strikes: Space Weather" (NSF!TWC), and has written a blog post 

for the Buffington Post entitled "Living with Space Weather (Baby, It's Charged Outside)". 
58 

Chairman BIGGS. Thank you, Dr. Gibson. 

I now recognize Dr. Tobiska for five minutes for his testimony. 

TESTIMONY OF DR. W. KENT TOBISKA, 

PRESIDENT AND CHIEF SCIENTIST, 

SPACE ENVIRONMENT TECHNOLOGIES 

Dr. TOBISKA. Good morning, Chairman Biggs and Babin, Ranking and Committee Members. I’m pleased to testify on the commercial perspective on impacts, monitoring, and forecasting of space 

weather as President of Space Environment Technologies and also 

as an Executive Committee member of the American Commercial 

Space Weather Association. 

As you’ve heard, space weather occurs because energy transfers 

from the Sun to Earth, causing sudden changes in ground currents, 

atmospheric radiation, ionosphere, and upper atmosphere densities. 

From our experience, for example, the power grid is susceptible. As 

you know, the 1989 Hydro-Qu ́ ebec power collapse, because of a geomagnetic storm, left 9 million customers without power, and imagine the entire Northeastern sector of the United States without 

power because of a Carrington-class geomagnetic storm. Predicting 

this without data and observations is impossible. 

A common index identifying storm severity is Dst and, in 2011, 

a company developed the first operational six-day Dst forecast for 

Air Force Space Command. Now, it is publicly available and used 

to help estimate coming geomagnetic disturbances. 

Turning to radiation, pilots, flight attendants, and frequent flyers 

can receive excessive dose. Galactic cosmic rays are the main cause, 

although a solar flare can triple it. Increased exposure leads to 

greater statistical risk of death from deep-tissue cancer. There’s a 

handy rule of thumb: Every 10 hours at 37,000 feet equals a chest 

x-ray, and that is one round-trip between DC. and L.A. Until recently, there was no monitoring, so a company started the ARMAS 

program in 2013 to measure dose on aircraft and immediately send 

it to the ground for public use. 

Next, ionosphere disruptions can lead to lost high-frequency 

radio signals, as you know. Nine days after Hurricane Katrina, as 

helicopters lifted people off of rooftops, the fourth largest flare in 

history occurred. It caused blackouts, affecting disaster recovery 

HF radio communications. Those are used because Katrina wiped 

out the telecommunications infrastructure. Coast Guard recovery 

ships couldn’t even communicate with the helicopters. Learning 

from this event, we saw that no credible HF availability forecast 

existed, thus, companies worked with Utah State University to develop and distribute a free HF radio 24-hour global forecast. 

Finally, from large flares and geomagnetic storms, upper atmosphere density increases, affecting satellite orbits. Now, in 1990, 

NORAD lost 200 satellites during one storm from its catalog. Based 

on that experience, Space Command launched a major effort to improve their upper atmosphere forecasts. Within ten years, the 

HASDM system was deployed, and after 15 years, a new upper atmosphere density model was released. That model was the single 

largest improvement in upper atmosphere density uncertainties 

since the 1960s. Companies were the key participants with Space 
59 

Command to build that model, and now, the solar geomagnetic activities created cut atmospheric density uncertainties in half. 

I use these examples to emphasize that real-time data and observations are vitally important for space weather monitoring. Monitoring cannot succeed until we produce a volume of data that is 

larger than is currently done by the—all agencies combined. To improve prediction, the use of physics-based data assimilation and ensemble models is our future. The main problem is forecasting the 

arrival of coronal ejected materials at Earth and knowing the magnitude of its effect. Every important risk management activity depends on solving this problem, and operational data from commercial space weather is a critical part of the solution. 

Mr. Chairman, Ranking Members, and Committee Members, 

thank you for this opportunity to testify, and I welcome any questions. 

[The prepared statement of Dr. Tobiska follows:] 
60 

DR. W. KEt.,;T TOBISK.·\ 

SPACE WEATHER EXPERT W!TC.:ESS 

PRESIDENT, SET 

E X E C l' T I V E C 0 M M I T T E E M E "! B E R , A C S \'I; ,\ 

IMPACTS, MONITORING, AND PREDICTION OF 

SPACE WEATHER 

TESTIMONY 

TO THE 

U.S. HOUSE OF 

REPRESENTATIVES 

JOINT HEARING 

BY THE 

COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, 

SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 

SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT 

AND 

SUBCOMMITTEE ON SPACE 

S P A C E E N V I R 0 N l\1 E N T T E C H N 0 L 0 G 1 E S ( S E T ) 

A :\! E R l C A N C 0 M M E R C I A L S P A C E \\' E A T H E R A S S 0 C I :\ T I 0 N ( ,\ C S \X' A ) 
61 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

TESTIMONY SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... . ................. 2 

SPACE \\EATHER IMPACTS .............................................................................................................. 2 

SPACE WEATHER MONITORING .................................................................................................... 2 

SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION ...................................................................................................... 2 

ORAL TESTIMONY: Impacts, ,\lonitoring, and Prediction of Space \X'eather ..................................... 3 

Sources of Space \\'eather .......................................................................................................................... 3 

Impacts of Space \X' eathcr- Power Grid Outages ................................................................................. 3 

Impacts of Space Weather Radiation .................................................................................................... 3 

Impacts of Space \Veathcr- Ionospheric Scintillation .......................................................................... 3 

Impacts of Space \\'eather- Upper Atmosphere Density Increases .................................................. 4 

Monitoring of Space Weather .................................................................................................................... 4 

Prediction of Space \X' cat her ...................................................................................................................... 4 

Thank You .................................................................................................................................................... 4 

SUPPLEMENTAL Mr\TERIAL ..................................................................................................................... 5 

Sources of Space \\'eather- Supplement ................................................................................................. 5 

Impacts of Space \'feather Power Grid Outages Supplement .......................................................... 6 

Impacts of Space W cat her- Radiation Supplement .............................................................................. 8 

Impacts of Space Weather Ionospheric Scintillation Supplement .................................................. 10 

Impacts of Space Weather l'pper Atmosphere Density Increases Supplement .......................... 11 

Monitoring of Space \X'eather- Supplement ........................................................................................ 12 

Prediction of Space Weather- Supplement .......................................................................................... 14 

TOBISI0\ SHORT BIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................... 16 

Space Environment Technologies 

American Commercial Space \'\' eather Association 
62 

TESTIMONY SUMMARY 

L\lPACTS, MONITORING, AND PREDICTION OF SPACE \'\/EA'I'HER 

SPACE WEATHER IMPACTS 

Energetic charged particles and photons come from the Sun as well as the galaxy and interact 

with the near-Earth space em·ironment as well as with our technoloh'T· The source of these particles 

and photons comes from solar flares, solar radio bursts, and the galaxy itself. They arrive at Earth 

and are dynamic in energy, time variability, and numbers of panicles or photons. This variability is 

known as space weather and it can dramatically affect the Earth's t!elds and atmosphere 

causing excessive environmental geo-electric field currents, radiation, ionospheric 

disturbances, and upper atmosphere expansion. 

Common effects of space weather include: 

Power grid outages resulting from damaged transformers during geo-electric field 

current surges; 

Radiation effects on astronauts, commercial air crewmembers, as well as frequent Hiers 

from Galactic Cosmic Rays, major solar flares, and even radiation belt particles; 

GPS signal loss and Hf radio disruption from ionospheric scintillation during 

geomagnetic storms and large solar t1arc ennts; and 

Low-Earth orbiting satellite losses due to disturbed orbital trajectories resulting from 

large solar Hare e\·ents and large geon1agneric storms. 

Technologies and industries that are affected by space weather include electric power generation, 

transportation (space, air, land, sea), national defense, tclecon1munications (govcrnn1ent, commercial 

and personal), ban king and commerce, space operations, and geolocation set\·ices. 

SPACE WEATHER MONITORING 

Since the mid-1990s there has been tremendous progress in monitoring space weather from the 

ground, air, and space. There are three pillars in American society that contribute to monitoring of 

space \Veather: government agencies, universities, and con1panies. 'The National Space \'{:eather 

Implementation Strategy and Plan was cle,·doped by this community and has recently evolved into 

the National Space Weather 1\ction Plan, an activity led by C.S. gm·ernment agencies with 

contributions from uni,·crsitics and industry. Agencies such as NOAA, NASA, USAF, CSGS, and 

NSF each pn.widc uni<JUC monitoring capabilities for civilian and military users. Major research 

universities and companies prcwide distinct monitoring and data production capabilities for the 

international science communit)", the public, and commercial custon1ers. \X'ithout the contributions 

from all three pillars, the United States would not have a monitoring capability. 

SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION 

The current state of predicting space weather is still nascent. i\[ost predictions rely on persistence 

or recurrence of solar events. Space weather is SO years behind terrestrial weather forecasting, relying 

primarily on statistical and climatological datasets or modeling to characterize the current state of the 

space em-ironment. Using dam assimilation into physics-based models and ensemble modeling, we 

know the direction for success and that includes incre::tsing the sources, types, and quantity of data. 

2 

Space Environment Technologies 

American Commercial Space \\'eather Association 
63 

ORAL TESTIMONY: Impacts, Monitoring, and 

Prediction of Space Weather 

Good morning, Chairmen Biggs and Babin, Ranking and Committee ;\!embers. I am 

pleased to testify from the commercial perspective on impacts, monitoring, and prediction of 

space weather as President of Space Environment Technologies and an Executive 

Committee member of the American Commercial Space \\1

eather Association. 

Sources of Weather 

Space \Veather occurs as energy transfers from the Sun to Earth, causing sudden changes 

in ground currents, atmospheric radiation, the ionosphere, and upper atmosphere densities. 

From our experience, for example: 

Weather- Power Grid 

The power grid is susceptible. In 1989 Hydro-Quebec power collapsed because of a 

geomagnetic storm leaving 9 million customers without power. Imagine the entire 

northeastern United States without power because of a Carrington-class geomagnetic storm! 

Predicting this without data is impossible. 

A common index identit)·ing storm severity is Dst and, in 2011, a company developed 

the first operational 6-day Dst forecast for Air Force Space Command. Now it is publicly 

a\-ailablc and used to estimate coming geomagnetic disturbances. 

Weather- Radiation 

Turning to radiation, pilots, flight attendants and frequent tliers can receive excessive 

dose. Galactic Cosmic Rays are the main cause although a large solar Hare can triple it. 

Increased exposure leads to greater statistical risk of death from deep tissue cancer. There's a 

handy m/e-ofthumb: every 10 hours at 37,000 feet equals a chest X -ray- that is one round trip 

between DC and LA. 

Cntil recently, there was no monitoring so a company started the AR:YL-\S program in 

2013 to measure dose in aircraft and immediately send it to the ground for public use. 

Scintillation 

Next, ionosphere disruptions can lead to lost High-Frequency (HF) radio signals. Nine 

days after Hurricane Katrina, as helicopters lifted people from rooftops, the fourth largest 

3 

Space Em-ironment Technologies 

American Commercial Space \\'eathcr Association 
64 

thre in history occurred. It caused blackouts affecting disaster recovery HF radio 

communications, used because Katrina wiped out the telecommunications infrastructure. 

Coast Guard reco1·ery ships couldn't even communicate with helicopters. 

Learning from this e1·ent, we saw that no credible !-IF availability forecast existed; 

companies worked >.vith Utah State UniYersity to develop and distribute a free HF radio 24-

hour global forecast. 

Impacts of Space Weather- Upper Atmosphere Density Increases 

Finally, from large flares and geomagnetic storms, upper atmosphere density increases, 

affecting satellite orbits. In 1990 ~ORAD lost 200 satellites during one storm. Based on that 

experience, Space Command launched a major effort to improve upper atmosphere 

forecasts. \\iithin 10 years, the IIASDJ\! system was deplo1·ed and, after 15 years, a new 

upper atmosphere density model was released. That model was the single largest 

improvement in reducing atmospheric density uncertainties since the 1960s. 

Companies were key participants with Space Command to build that model and the solar 

and geomagnetic indices now created cut atmospheric density uncertainties in half. 

Weather 

I use these examples to emphasize that real-time data is vitally important for space 

weather monitoring. Commercial organizations know "if it doesn't exist, create it!" 

Monitoring cannot succeed until \Ve produce a larger volume of data than currenth- done by 

all agencies combined. \Ve recommend that 1-IR 3086 explicitly prescribe commercial space 

weather data production for monitoring space weather hazards. 

Prediction of Weather 

To improve prediction, the use of physics-based data assimilation and ensemble models 

is our future. The main problem is forecasting the arrival of coronal ejected material at Earth 

and knowing the magnitude of its effect. Every important risk management acdvity depends 

on solving this problem and operational data from commercial space weather is a critical 

part of the solution. 

Thank You 

Mr. Chairmen, Ranking Members, and Committee Members, thank you for this 

opportunity to testify. 1 welcome any questions. 

4 

Space Em·ironment Technologies 

American Commercial Space Weather Association 
65 

SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL 

c~c:m:tcH<->glcal infrastructures. (Graphic by R. Michaelis, A. Grosse, 

Hambutger Abendblatt.) 

Space weather is caused by energetic particles and photons that come from large Hares on the 

Sun, from explosive events in supernovae and black holes, and C\Tn from disturbances to the 

Van Allen belts that surround the Earth. As these particles and photons arrived at Earth, 

they dynamically affect the near· Earth space environment. In particular, there can be sudden 

to the electric currents in the Earth's crust, excessive radiation in the at aircraft 

and in space, rapidly changes in the called scintillation, and even density increases in 

the upper atmosphere where the Space Station and reconnaissance satellites fly (Figure 

1). 

Space Environment 

American Commercial Space Weather 

5 
66 

Pig. 2. Connections and interdependencies across the economy. Schematic showing the 

interconnected infrastructures and their qualitative dependencies and interdependencies. 

SOURCE: of Homeland Nationallnfrastructme Protection Plan, available 

at 

The (Figure 2). For 

storms 

are easy 

currents can overload a system's safety 

most serious example was the 13 March 

yuru··vueoec power system caused by increased reactive consumption, then 

by a safety "tripping" of ancillary power lines with an inability Hydro-Quebec to make 

the loss in transn1ission. Nine n1illion customers in eastern Canada were without 8YX_~ of 

was restored within 9 h1• Electric utilities across the northern latitudes the U.S. also 

transformer damage, depressed \'oltages, and the forced tripping of several voltage 

control deYices. The implication of a Carrington-class storm is 

that large swaths of the northeastern without power for affecting the 

entire national infrastructure 2) 2• The 1859 Carrington event was a massive flare on the Sun 

that led to the geomagnetic storm in history. Aurora were spotted over Cuba and 

balls of fire down telegraph lines across the country. 

1 Mact\lester, M. H. and \'1/. Murtagh 

Management Perspective, Space 

6 

[/7eather EPmts- Under.rtam!J!Jg Societal and Erono!!;ic Impe~c!.f U7orkshop Report, National 

National Academies Press, \'\'ashington, DC, 2008 

Space Environment 

American Commercial Space Weather "''"'cJ<•tucm 
67 

storm's strength upon how much the Earth's is 

solar wiud. The storm time (Dst) index (Figure this 

disturbance. Space Environment Technologies has been and sole-source distributing the 

current and forecast Dst index to U.S. Air Force Space Space Center 

(formerly called NORAD) since 2012'. SET's Dst is often used for 

of coming geomagnetic disturbances. 

Fig. 3. SET's Dst recent 

actual data, vertical line current and 

independent methods. Left panels are solar information while the lower right panel is the 

most recent coronaltnass ejection trajectory to\vards Earth. 

>p<cctnc;muu and forecast can be viewed at 

.spac,en·dronm<,nt.n<ct; with the reference ofTobiska, W. K., D. 

Knipp,\'\;'. J. D. Bouwer,J. Bailey, D. Odstrcil, M.P. Hagan,]. Gannon, and B. R. Bowman 

(2013), The Anemomilos prediction methodolog\' for Dst, Spt~ce Weathn; 11, 490-508, 

doi: 10.1002/ swe.20094. 

7 
68 

Not only astronauts receive radiation from 

space weather. A second example is the effect on 

commercial aircrew members and frequent Hiers 

who can receive excessive radiation doses while 

flying at commercial aviation altitudes'' (above 

30,000 feet) (Figure 4). Radiation from Galactic 

Cosmic Rays (GCRs) is always present at these 

altitudes. However, when there is a large solar 

flare with an associated solar energy 

(SEP) event there can be double or 

dose in the same amount of time. This is 

especially true for higher latitude air traffic routes 

across North America, to Europe, and to Asia. 

There is even new evidence that there 

these same 

occurring but small geomagnetic storms 

that disturb the Earth's and 

radiation belts5. The result of 

time is, of course, an increased 

risk by deep tissue cancer later 

in life. A rule of thumb is for ev·ery 10 hours at 

37,000 feet, a person receives the equivalent of 

one chest X-ray from the GCRs alone. 

While NASA and the Fi\r\ have done a 

tremendous job in modeling the commercial 

aviation radiation environment, there has been 

no real-time data to actually monitor that 

environment. As a result, Space Environment 

Technologies created the Automated Radiation 

.\Ieasurements for Aerospace Safety 

program to rrleasure dose rates in aircraft 

return that information to the ground in real· 

time. End users of these data will be air trat11c 

management, aircraft and 

(Figure 5). ARMAS has 

aviation radiation environment since 

(Figure 6). It has now achieved a rudimentary 

Fig. 4. The complex radiation environment at 

and abov·e commercial aviation altitudes due to 

GCRs and SEPs. 

4 Tobiska, \'\i. K, eta!. (2015), Advances in Atmospheric Radiation Measurements and Modeling 

Needed to Improve Air Safety, Space lFeatlm; 13,202-210, doi:10.1002/2015S\'\'001169. 

s Tobiska, \'V'. K., eta!. (2016), Global real-time dose measurements using the Automated Radiation 

Measurements t(>r Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) system, Space !Featbn; 14, doi:10.1002/ 

2016S\X7001419. 

6 Tobiska, \X'. K., et al. (2015), A,kmces in Atmospheric Radiation Measurements and Modeling 

Needed to Air Safety, Spare ll7et~tber, 13, 202-210, doi: 10.1002/2015SW001169; data can be 

found at 

8 
69 

statistical forecast capability for a combination of the GCR and Van Allen radiation belt particles 

7). A forecast is constructed from NASA's Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing 

for Aviation (NAIRAS) model (Figure 8), which together with ARMAS, forms the 

basis for the RADIAN data assimilatiYe modeling system for global m·iation radiation (Figure 9). 

ARMAS VISION 

Fig. 5. ARJ\!AS ''ision integrating real-time 

dose rate measurements into operational 

aerospace/ space traffic management systems. 

Fig. 7. RADIAN statistical forecast algorithm 

for effective dose rate (red line and 

for all magnetic latitudes (specified L-shell), 

with a N OAr\ GO geomagnetic activity level 

(quiet), and at an altitude of 11 km. The light 

black dashed line is for the NAIRAS 

climatological forecast only, also shown in 

Figure 8. 

Fig. 6. Global ARMAS measurements since 

2013 and on 429 flights above 8 km. 

Pig. 8. RADIAN climatological forecast 

algorithm (red line is climatological NAIRAS 

and blue line is statistical Afu'V!AS) for all 

magnetic latitudes (spccitied by L-shell), with a 

NOAA GO geomagnetic activity level 

and at an altitude of 11 km. The light 

dashed lines are for the NAIRAS 

climarolo!,>ical variability across all magnetic 

longitudes. 

9 
70 

-180 180 

9. Global climatology and weather representation of effective dose rates (dE/dt) at 11 km 

for NOAA geomagnetic conditions of GO (quiet). Colored dots are ARMAS data for 

assimilation into NAIRAS that can upgrade the radiation weather along a Hight track. 

Scintillation 

Space weather affects the ionosphere and can lead to the loss of GPS and High-Frequency (HF) 

radio signals during large solar t1ares and storms. Nine after Hurricane Katrina 

hurricane hit New Orleans 29 August 2005 1 0), when we were helicopters airlift 

from the fourth solar t1are in recorded history 11) on 07 

SPntc·mihN 2005. X17 Hare of the Earth, 

across the Gulf of Mexico. Disaster HF radio 

uu'~"'ucJm because the hurricane wiped out the southern 

Louisiana. The t1are caused a telecommunications blackout for several hours and Coast Guard 

recoverv in the Gulf could not even communicate with the helicopters that were evacuating 

us that space weather could significantly affect disaster recovery efforts. 

Fig. 10. Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans 

on 29 August 2005. 

Fig. 11. The 4•h largest solar Hare recorded, an 

X17, erupts on the Sun 07 September 2005. 

10 
71 

Space Em·ironment Technologies, along 

with its partners l!tah State and Space 

Environment Corporation, to the 

need for HF radio frequency availability 

forecasts. In 2012 the Q-lJp system was 

de\·eloped to provide regional and global HF 

band a\·ailability with up to 24 hours notice. 

lJ sing USU's Global Assimilation of Ionospheric 

Measurements (GAIM) model, this industryuniversitv partnering began providing muchneeded data, and services for the 

public The CSC GAli\1 model has 

been used 

since 2006 for its operational 

forecasting. 

Today's world depends on accurate GPS 

position as well as timing and without that 

critical information sectors are affected. As 

a derivative of GAIM GPS improvement, 

12. Global HF availability forecasts 

an example of signal strength from 

Miami. 

SET and USU have developed the Spot-On system orovidint> 2 m accuracy for any device using 

single frequency G PS receivers such as smartphones" 

upper 

increases 

flares and ge<Jmagl1Ctlc 

can affect 

1990 NORAD, which tracks all 

objects in space, lost a 

period. 

efforts 

Space 

number of satellites 

such solar 

storm 

Additional tracking 

were needed to 

rhe missing satellites. 

on that experience, 

Command launched a 

major effort to improve the 

forecast of upper atmosphere 

densities. After 10 years, the 

High Accuracy Satellite Drag 

Model (HASDl\!) was 

deployed. After 15 years a new 

SpoT-On concept (green dot is final position 2 m from center of 

traffic circle flower garden and uncorrected position (blue 

dot) using an iPhone native GPS 

thermosphere density model (jl32008) was released8 - it was the 

reducing LEO atmospheric density uncertainties since the 1960s. Space '-L'u",uauu 

"NOA1\ SBIR Phase I and II contract WC133Rl7CN0075 to SET starting in 2017. 

11 
72 

60 120 100 240 300 360 

fig. 14. The JB2008 thermosphere density at 

400 km. 

'"' 

fig. 15. Solar indices used by JB2008. 

used JB2008 since 2012 because satellite orbital track uncertainties are now less than half of what 

they were in 1990. JB2008 is now an ISO standard". 

Space Environment Technologies was a key team member with Space Command in building that 

new model (figure 14). The solar and geomagnetic indices used the model were the main 

components that helped reduce the nncertainties by half Since 2012 SET bas been 

operationally producing these indices for space using dedicated, redundant 

server facilities. The forecast for these indices extends out to six and Space Command operators 

retrieve these data several times per day. 

organized the National Space Weather Implementation Plan. 

Universities and companies contributed to the direction and content of that plan. However by 

2013 it became apparent that a more coherent policy was needed to direct U.S. government agencies 

in the management of risks to the critical national infrastructure. Again the U.S. government agencies 

consulted with universities and companies and developed rhe National Space \X'eatber Action Plan 

(S\VAP) under the auspices of the Office of Science and Policy. That plan was published 

in 2015. During the two years, both the Senate and House Representatives have developed 

bipartisan bills to U.S. agencies in tasks that and mitigate space 

weather risks to our critical infrastructure. At the beginning 2018 this combined 

Executive and Legislative branch policy collaboration has laid a tremendous foundation for our 

national ability to monitor space weather. All three (Figure 16) of the national space weather 

government, academia, and have contributed to building the national 

strategy and action. 

8 Bowman, B. R., \\:'. K. Tobiska, F. A. Marcos, C.'{. Huang, C. S. Lin, and W . .J. Burke (2008), A 

New Empirical Tbermospberic Density New Solar and Geomagnetic Indices, 

AL4 .. 4/ /L4J Astmdynamics SpeaiJ!ist Conjeretlte, 

9 ISO 14222: 2013, Spcn~ e~wiro!ll!tent (natural and artificial) Earth tipper atmosphen, International Standards 

()rganization~ G·eneva. 

10 Tobiska, \X'. K., S. D. Bouwer, and B. R. Bowman (2008), The development of new solar indices 

for use in tbermospheric density 70, 803-

819. 

12 
73 

Who comprises the national space 

weather enterprise? 

Weather Proaram 

three pillars of agencies, accLnerm:L 

weather enterprise. 

Space Em·ironment Technologies and the American Commercial Space \'{! eather Association 

ha\·e contributed substantial content in this policy com·ersation the concept 

deYelopment and through formal Federal Register comments to the Both 

11 Listing of ACSWA and SET support documents in the policy debate: 

i. ACSWA letter of support to the U.S. House of Representatives for the !!7eather Foremxt 

ii. 

iii. 

-v. 

Yi_i. 

Yiii. 

(H.R. 241.3}, 10 September 2013; 

letter of concern to the U.S. Honse of Representatives for the U.S. Gotemment S!JNtdoum, 

07 October 2013; 

ACSWA letter of to the U.S. House of ReprescntatiYes for the !Feather Fomast and 

Imwzmliom Act 1561 ), 15 May 2015; 

ACS\X'A Response to the NOAA '"''·''tm·erc;·at 2015; 

ACSWA Response to the OSTP Spaa 11 July 

ACSWA Comments to NOAA on l!!lprol'itt~ Sjtace ll7mtber Forecmtin<~ R2().()2R Capability, 20 

March 2017; 

SET letter 

Science, and 

2017; 

to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Space, Science, 

the /lt!miam Commerce Free Bnterpn~re Act of2017, 07 June 2017; 

to the House of Representatives Committee on Space, 

"r'"""""'' for the Spare u:-eatber ReJearch and Foreca.rtitz~ Act (H.R. .3086), 06 July 

ix. ACSWA recommendations to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on 

Science, and Technology for text changes to the Space Weather ReJearrh and 

(I f.R. }086), 05 October 2017; 

x. ACSWA recommendations to the National Science Foundation Reqt~eJtji;r Ittformation t'\~arding 

JU70 RM Goal Priofity 5. S. I, 06 March 2018. 

13 
74 

organizations strongly support the passage of HR 3086 and S 2817 so that a coherent national space 

weather risk management strategy and plan can become the law of the land. 

However, monitoring will not be successful until reliable, operational weather information 

can be regularly produced on a scale larger than is done by NASA, and other 

agencies. We recommend that congressional authorization in bills emphasizes a national Space 

Weather Actionable (SW'AT) concept where space weather industry provides 

competitive, cost-effective, and data streams for the next of spaee models and 

systems. We point to the successful examples of SET's Dst, Q-Up, Spot-On, and JB2008 

operational data streams, as well as those from other ACS\'(lA organizations12, that already provide 

the information needed to drive advanced space weather models. 

Prediction of 

The space weather community sees the use of physics-based models with data assimilation as 

well as ensemble modeling as the forward for improving weather prediction accuracy. To 

a certain extent, progress has been made with GAIM model for ionosphere 

specification and prediction (Figure 17), NOAA's WSA/ENLIL/Cone model for solar wind 

specification and prediction (Figure 18), and the newly funded SET RADIAN model for eventual 

aviation radiation specitlcation and prediction 19). Each of these uses data assimilative 

techniques. As more models and data streams are we the growth of ensemble 

modeling that will drastically improved the timing, location, and of space weather events. 

Fig. !7. USU's GAIM globaltortosph,ore model 

for specification and p«:cwctHJu. 

used by the USAF 

operational ionosphere as 

and SET team for Q·Up and Spot-On 

derivative products. 

ACS\'{1

A capabilities presentation at 

14 

18. NOAA's WSA/ENLIL/CONE solar 

model for specification and prediction. 

Space Environment Tc:chnc>lo,gies 

American Commercial Space \'{' eather t\ ssnrtotln.n 
75 

No progress is possible) however, unless \VC see an increase in data sources, data types, and data 

quantity. For example, an outstanding problem of weather prediction is determining the arrival 

at Earrh of large coronal mass ejections that on the Sun. The arrival time is largely 

dependent on the velocity of the particles that come from tbe Sun. In addition the directionality of 

the interplanetary magnetic field is also key factor in determining the how the charged particles 

with the Earth's magnetosphere and result in or small of geomagnetic 

at Earth. All the important risk management will on understanding these 

two features of the Sun-Earth connection - and we cannot solve this problem without more global 

data. Even when global data is available, more real-time dose data in regional areas is needed at 

aircraft altitudes, for example, to identify higher or lower radiation areas; this would give your traffic 

management and pilots an ability to avoid radiation areas much like they avoid volcanic ash 

clouds today. Prediction requires data, first foremost - and with it, we can create the tools and 

forecasts to protect the critical national infrastructure. C.S. indusny stands tall to help with this task. 

~ 0 I 

1], 

~ 

~ 1 

Fig. 19. SET's RADIAN global radiation model for specification and prc:dH:tlc>n 

northern hemisphere forecast (top left), the current epoch (bottom the regional track 

of a LA-DC flight (top right), and the hemispheric view of the LA-DC t1ight (bottom right). 

Space Environment 1 ecll<'10I!ogtes 

American Commercial Space Weather 1\ssoctattc•n 

15 
76 

Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety 

Space Environment 

American Commercial Space Weather 
77 

TOBISKA SHORT BIOGRAPHY 

Dr. Tobiska is the President and Chief Scientist of Space Environment Technologies, 

LLC (SET). He is also the director of the Utah State University Space \'\'eather Center and 

President of Q-Up, LLC. He invented the world's first operational computer code for solar 

irradiance forecasting and extended this expertise into the development of operational space 

weather systems that now produce solar irradiances, geomagnetic indices, and ground-tospace radiation environment dose rates. His career spans work at the NOAA Space 

Environment Laboratory, UC Berkeley Space Sciences Laboratory, Jet Propulsion 

Laboratory, Northrop Grumman, SET, USU Space \X'eather Center, and Q-Up. He has been 

a USAF and a NASA Principal Investigator (PI) and Co-Investigator (Co-l) for over a 

quarter century. He has been the COSPAR C1 Sub-Commission (Thermosphere & 

Ionosphere) Chair, the COSPAR International Reference Atmosphere (CIRA) Task Force 

Chair, and was a Session Organizer for 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2018 

COSPAR scientific sessions. }!e serves as lead U.S. delegate to the International Standards 

Organization (ISO) for the space environment and developed the ISO solar irradiance as 

well as Earth atmosphere density international standards. Dr. Tobiska is an Associate Fellow 

of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics and a member of American 

Geophysical Union, Committee On Space Research, American l\Ieteorological Society, and 

ISO TC20/SC14 U.S. Technical AdYisory Group. He is a founding member, and Executive 

Committee member, of the American Commercial Space Weather Association (ACSWA). 

He has authored/ co-authored over 165 peer-review scientific papers as well as 10 books and 

major technical publications. 

16 

Space Em· ironment Technologies 

1\merican Commercial Space \Veather Association 
78 

Chairman BIGGS. Thank you, Dr. Tobiska. 

I now recognize myself for five minutes for questions. And before 

I do so, I just want to make two quick points. Number one, I am 

in the similar boat as Chairman Lamar Smith as I serve on the Judiciary Committee, and so I will be in and out the balance of this 

hearing, running down those stairs and back up, which apparently 

is a better use of my transportation mode than the weekly roundtrip from here to Phoenix that I take, so—which makes me very 

nervous. 

Dr. Jacobs, the Department of Commerce recently sent out a request for information seeking public comments on federal space 

weather policy. Among other things, the RFI seeks input on ways 

to advance engagement with the private sector in this effort. Can 

you please give us an idea of how the private sector might enhance 

the National Space Weather Strategy? 

Dr. JACOBS. What we’re interested in learning from that is if 

they have any capabilities, either ground-based, Sun-facing or 

space-based Sun-facing observing capabilities that could enhance 

our mission or possibly even forecasting technologies or capabilities. 

Chairman BIGGS. Thank you. And, Dr. Tobiska, can you tell 

me—please tell the Committee how space environment technologies 

can aid the federal government in improving its National Space 

Weather Strategy. 

Dr. TOBISKA. In particular, the commercial sector first of all sees 

that it is in partnership with the agencies and academia in helping 

build this enterprise. The commercial sector has evolved over the 

last 15 to 20 years, and specifically, there’s examples of what the 

commercial sector can do right now. In the ionosphere for the assimilation side of it, there are companies that are producing highquality gold-standard simulation monitors that can be used by 

NOAA for that capability. 

For the aircraft radiation environment, companies are building 

monitoring devices for use on aircraft. In fact, we learn from the 

tropospheric weather community how to send that data down to 

the ground via an iridium satellite in real time. There’s a lot of 

good NASA, NOAA, NSF, and FAA research aircraft that are flying 

those instruments right now, and then even the commercial space 

transportation sector is starting to buy those kinds of dosimeters. 

So the bottom line is that the commercial sector has a lot of capability for instrumentation, for some data production. There’s colleagues in the audience here who produce solar energetic particle 

forecasts, and those kind of activities can actually be transitioned 

into products and services useful for the agencies so—— 

Chairman BIGGS. Thank you. And, Dr. Tobiska, can you briefly 

provide some examples of ways the federal government can improve its coordination with companies like yours? And then I’ll ask 

Dr. Jacobs and Dr. Spann and Dr. Gibson the same question. 

Dr. TOBISKA. Sure. That’s an excellent question, and I really appreciate you asking it. That was actually a big topic in the sidebar 

meetings last week at the Space Weather Workshop that was 

hosted by NOAA and other agencies in Boulder. In particular, the 

big tentpole that exists right now for this collaboration is not having a common table to sit at, not having a process in place. Over 
79 

the years, there has been friction between companies and agencies. 

It’s because in agencies there’s researchers, which are good, and 

they’re very enthusiastic about doing activities, but sometimes they 

don’t know what’s going on in the commercial sector. And so there’s 

been a competition at different times in the past. 

However, I think across the board on the commercial sector we 

see it extremely important and very possible that the commercial 

and the academic and the agency guys sit down at some kind of 

a process rather than we’re all being in a swimming pool right now 

splashing each other. If we could determine a process to determine 

our swim lanes, that would really help I think ease any friction in 

the future and enable us to best use our resources where we’re having expertise in each area. 

Chairman BIGGS. Dr. Jacobs, do you concur? Do you want to expand on that? 

Dr. JACOBS. Yes, I do. This is one of the reasons why we released 

the RFI was because it’s hard for us to sort of define swim lanes 

if we don’t know what the other swimmers are doing. So it’s of interest to us to learn what’s going on in the commercial sector so 

there’s no duplicative efforts in development and also any capabilities that they may have to help us transition research to operational forecasting faster. 

Chairman BIGGS. Regrettably, my time is expired. 

And now, I’m going to recognize the gentleman from Colorado, 

Mr. Perlmutter, for five minutes for his questions. 

Mr. PERLMUTTER. Thanks, Mr. Chairman. And again, thank you 

to the panel. This is an excellent discussion. 

I’ve had the chance, and a number of others on this committee, 

we visited the High Altitude Observatory at Atacama, so the 

ALMA radio telescopes, and 66 of those telescopes were trained on 

the Sun as part of observations again through the National Science 

Foundation. I’ve had a chance to go to the NOAA lab where the 

Space Weather Prediction Center is, helping both the Department 

of Defense, as well as commercial, you know, civilian operations. 

And we’ve got a good system going, but to Dr. Tobiska’s point— 

and I think the purpose of the legislation—is to provide some parameters and some guidelines as to how the commercial, the international, academic, and agency communities work together to 

avoid, you know, some big problems or at least to know more. 

So, Dr. Gibson, let me start with you. You went through about 

five points as to the importance of understanding space weather. 

So talk to me—and other members of the panel can jump in—as 

to what we in Congress can do for all of you to help you understand 

space weather and its potentialities on the Earth. 

Dr. GIBSON. Okay. So, I mean, first and foremost, we need to 

learn more about these fundamental problems that we don’t understand because that’s how we’re going to do better in our forecasting. And Dr. Tobiska mentioned, for example, the importance 

of knowing the structure of the coronal mass ejection, knowing 

what the magnetic fields are when they hit the Earth. That’s something which is absolutely key to being able to make progress. And 

that’s something which requires better observations of the magnetic fields back at the Sun, better observations of the coronal mass 

ejection as it moves from Sun to Earth, and better observations of 
80 

the Earth’s magnetic field, the space environment, and atmosphere. 

And so all these observations are needed. 

And then we have to bring together the modelers, the theorists, 

the data scientists who can help us figure out how to improve our 

understanding and our forecasting using these observations. And so 

I think that’s the first and foremost thing that has to happen. 

Mr. PERLMUTTER. Dr. Spann? 

Dr. SPANN. Yes, I think I’d concur that having the observations 

that are fundamental to increase our understanding are critical. 

And, as I mentioned in my opening statement, we have several 

missions that not only are doing that now that are coming online 

to do exactly that where we’re studding acceleration processes, 

we’re—both right near the Sun with Parker Probe or with the new 

IMAP mission, which is focused on not only looking at the boundary of the solar system but also looking at acceleration processes 

perhaps a little bit closer to the Earth. And then with ICON and 

GOLD really studying where the rubber meets the road in terms 

of the impacts of much of our technologies and assets which are in 

the near Earth environment. 

And so as we pursue the decadal priorities in terms of these missions, while we are focused on the fundamental understanding, 

there is always this aspect that there’s an applied component 

that—where we can work with our sister agencies and academia 

and industry. Quite frankly, we rely so heavily on academia and 

industry in terms of providing that knowledge base to really understand these missions. 

And so with NASA continuing the strategy with these missions 

that are ongoing and the ones that are a little bit further out is 

the way we believe is going to provide the best foundation so that 

we can have better predictions for space weather. 

Mr. PERLMUTTER. All right. So to Drs. Tobiska and Jacobs, are 

there forums or conferences—is there really—is there any structure 

or is it really just a swimming pool, you know, and you’re not in 

each other’s lanes? What kinds of things are out there to allow the 

international community, industry, academia, and the agencies to 

work together in sync and not sort of at cross purposes? 

Dr. TOBISKA. I’ll take a first stab at that. The—first of all, that’s 

directly on point. I think if you hadn’t been a space weather week 

last week, you certainly would have had a good contribution. The— 

in particular, the American Meteorological Society is a professional 

society that has acted as a neutral third-party arbitrator to some 

extent in maybe a decade or 15 years ago when the commercial 

weather and NOAA were having issues trying to resolve which 

swim lanes they were in. As a community, the commercial guys, 

the academic guys, and the agency folks really do think the AMS 

can provide that role, and they’ve actually indicated that they 

would be interested in that in the future. 

So of course there’s other meetings and conferences of opportunity, but I would say if there’s a neutral third party that would 

really help organize a table or process for discussion, perhaps some 

agencies can also help that. 

Mr. PERLMUTTER. Thank you, Doctor. 

Dr. Jacobs, my time has expired, so I would, if I could, like to 

introduce into the record, Mr. Chairman, a number of letters that 
81 

we have received from the American Astronomical Society; the 

American Commercial Space Weather Association; the American 

Geophysical Union; Carmel Research Center; Penn State University; University of Colorado; University of Michigan; University of 

New Hampshire; and the University Corporation for Atmospheric 

Research, UCAR. And I ask unanimous consent to enter those. 

And just as a parting comment, the purpose of the legislation 

we’re bringing is to help everybody get into those lanes to make the 

predictions and observations to avoid a lot of pain that might come 

from some eruption or another. Thank you. 

Mr. BABIN. [Presiding] And without objection, those will be entered into the record. Thank you. 

[The information follows:] 
82 

)uly7,2017 

The Honorable Ed Perlmutter 

1410 Office Bldg 

20515 

On behalf of the over 7,500 members of the American Astmnomical 

Division 

ln particular, the AAS and SPD endorse the 

our capability to understand the causes and 

events: 

The Honorable Eddie 

2468 Rayburn House Office 

Washington D.C. 20515 

of which are essential to 

and personnel through the formation of Heliophysics Science Centers, and 

mc·c!Ianism for the transition of research knowledge to operational 

for communication of operational needs to community. 

Thank you your attention to this timely and important issue, The membership of the SPD, which includes 

areas addressed in this 

Executive Officer, American Astronomical Society 
83 

American Commercial Space Weather Association 

The Honorable Ed Perlmutter 

United States House of Representatives 

Washington, DC 20515 

Dear Congressman Perlmutter, 

July6,2017 

On behalf of the American Commercial Space Weather Association (ACSWA), we enthusiastically support the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act (H.R. 3086, 

the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act) that was introduced for consideration in the House of Representatives on June 27, 2017. Given that naturally occurring variations in the space environment between the Sun and Earth, called space 

weather, can have significant economic, safety, health, and national security implications for our technological society, we must expand our scientific understanding of 

the Sun - Earth interactions to improve forecasting and mitigate the effects of space 

weather events. The Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act provides an excellent frameworl< for U.S. Government agencies to coordinate that activity for our societal benefit. 

ACSWA is the leading U.S. and [international] commercial space weather industry 

association dedicated to improving America's competitive edge in space. ACSWA is 

proud to count 19 U.S. companies in the association with~combined annual operating revenue and multi-state job base larger than that of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. ACSWA promotes space weather risk mitigation for critical national 

infrastructure related to national dally life, economic strength, and national security. 

In conjunction with its member companies, it has played a vital role in identifying 

important data and technology gaps that can be filled by commercial solutions. Our 

member companies lead the nation in developing value-added products and services for the benefit of human and property safety and they represent the growing, 

vibrant commercial sector for the space economy. 

Sincerely, 

The Executive Committee 

American Commercial Space Weather Association (ACSWA) 

CC: Rep. Lamar Smith 

Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson 

Rep. Andy Biggs 

Rep. Suzanne Bonamici 

Rep. Bfian Babin 

Rep. Ami Bera 

Rep. Jim Bridenstine 

http://www.acswa.us 
84 

American Commercial Space Weather Association 

ACSW A Executive Committee: 

Geoff Crowley (Atmospheric and Space Technology Research Associates) 

Alec Engel! (NextGen) 

Devrie Intriligator (Carmel Research Center) 

Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., VADM USN (ret.) (GeoOptics) 

Bob Robinson (In Space Now) 

Bob Schunk (Space Environment Corporation) 

W. Kent Tobiska (Space Environment Technologies) 

http:/ /www.acswa.us 
85 

American Commercial Space Weather Association 

August 31,2017 

The Honorable Ed Perlmutter 

United States House of Representatives 

Washington, DC 20515 

Dear Congressman Perlmutter, 

On behalf of the American Commercial Space Weather Association (ACSWA), we 

reaffirm support for the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act (H.R 3086, 

the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act) that was introduced for 

consideration in the House of Representatives on June 27, 2017. From a commercial 

perspective, we believe that the bill must be strengthened with additions 

highlighted in blue and changes in respectively. We provide arguments for 

these changes in sidebar text boxes. 

This strengthening is necessary for two reasons: (1) the commercial sector 

represents the best chance for innovation as well as expansion of space weather risk 

management for our nation's security and (2) this bill will likely be the only space 

weather related bill to pass Congress in the next few years and we want to get it 

right. If this national capability is to grow, it cannot only be through agency or 

academic efforts. To unleash the additional economic power of business activity, the 

commercial sector must be given a more prominent role than it has had in the past. 

A majority of the commercial space weather industry is represented through small 

business and can cost-effectively contribute to improving space weather risk 

management. 

New concepts for inclusion into the bill include: (1) a FACA to advise the agencies 

rather than creating and funding any untested, new, costly entity to advise the 

government; (2) testbed initiatives using industry expertise for R20 and 02R 

transitions; (3) NOAA and FAA initiatives parallel to NASA's Flight Opportunities 

program (industry matched funding for space flight) for space weather data 

production and airborne flight instrumentation development; and ( 4) specifically 

require use of existing operational commercial capabilities when appropriate for 

data and instrument needs to service space weather forecasters. 

Thank you for your consideration. 

Sincerely, 

The ACSWA Executive Committee 

Geoff Crowley (Atmospheric and Space Technology Research Associates) 

Alec Engel! (NextGen) 

Devrie Intriligator (Carmel Research Center) 

Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., VADM USN (ret.) (GeoOptics) 

Bob Robinson (In Space Now) 

Bob Schunk (Space Environment Corporation) 

W. Kent Tobiska (Space Environment Technologies) 

http:/ jwww.acswa.us 

1 
86 

American Commercial Space Weather Association 

to HR3086to 

strengthen commercial space weather 

contributions to the national space weather 

efforts 

§ 60701. Space weather 

(f) INTERNATIONAL, COMMERCIAL, AND ACADEMIC 

COLLABORATION.- Participating Federal agencies in the space 

weather interagency working group established under subsection (c) 

shall, to the extent practicable and appropriate, increase engagement 

and cooperation with the international, commercial, and academic 

communities on the observational infrastructure, data, and scientific 

research necessary to advance the characterization, prediction, and 

mitigation of space weather events. Under the direction of the 

at least one 

des;ignlate!d as the host of a Federal 

ad1ViSilrV CO<Irdiinalte the 

§ 60702. Observations and forecasting 

(b) INTEGRATED STRATEGY.-

(2) CONSIDERATIONS.- In developing the strategy under 

paragraph (1 ), the Director of the Office of Science and 

Technology Policy shall consider small satellite and 

microsatellite options, hosted payloads, commercial 

gronnd/oceanfair /space options, international options, and 

prize authority. 

http:/ fwww.acswa.us 

sector to llave a full 

partlcit!atl<m In policy 

2 
87 

American Commercial Space Weather Association 

§ 60702. Observations and forecasting 

(1) PLAN.- The Administrator of the National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration, in coordination with the Secretary 

of Defense, shall develop requirements and a plan for follow-on 

"'""'""'·-ocean·, air· and space-based observations for 

operational purposes, in accordance with the integrated .... 

(2) RESEARCH NEEDS.- In developing the requirements and 

plan under paragraph (1), the Administrator of the National 

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shall coordinate with 

the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the 

National Science Foundation regarding the research necessary to 

improve space weather forecasting and the ground·, ocean-, 

air· and space-based observations that will advance .... 

(f) REPORT.- Not later than 180 days after the date of enactment of 

the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act, the Director of the 

Office of Science and Technology Polley shall submit to the Committee 

on Commerce, Science, and Transportation of the Senate and the 

Committee on Science, Space, and Technology of the House of 

Representatives a report on the integrated strategy under subsection 

(b), including the Plan for follow-on ground·, ocean·, air· and spacebased observations under subsection (e). 

(h) ADDITIONAL GROUND-BASED OBSERVATIONS.- The National 

Science Foundation, the Air Force, and, where practicable in support of 

the Air Force, the Navy shall each-

(1) maintain and improve, as necessary and advisable, groundbased observations of the San solar, near-space, and 

terrestrial space weather features in order to help meet the 

priorities identified in section 60703(a); and 

(2) provide space weather data by means of its set of groundbased facilities, including radars, lidars, magnetometers, radio 

and GPS receivers, aurora and airglow imagers, spectrometers, 

interferometers, al!·borne radiation sensors, neutron 

monitors, and solar observatories. 

(3) Buy American products and services, including sensors 

unless a good reason can be found to do otherwise. 

http:/ jwww.acswa.us 

3 
88 

American Commercial Space Weather Association 

§ 60703. Research and technology 

(b) RESEARCH ACTIVITIES.-

(3) MULTIDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH.-

(C) SENSE OF CONGRESS. -!tis the sense of Congress that the 

Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space 

Administration and Director of the National Science 

Foundation should support competitively awarded 

Heliophysics Science Centers and testbed initiatives that 

support research to operations and operations to research. 

The Administrator of tbe Oceanic and 

competitively awarded data pl'tldtlctl.on 

opportnnity initiatives re~;ea1rch 

operations and operations to research. 

4 http://www.ac<~Wa.us 

business and 2•d·J"' tier 

universities and colleges 

can compete for other 

initiatives. HSCs alone 

will elbn!nate nearly all 

commercial 

participation. 

Commercial 

organizations are 

capabilities. 
89 

American Commercial Space Weather Association 

§ 60703. Research and technology 

(d) RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS.-

"(3) COMMERCIAL CAPABILITIES.- The Administrator of the 

National Administration and the 

Secretary of Defense, in the Administrator 

of the and the 

Director of the utilize to 

the data 

capabilities and instrument facilities commercial 

organizations to fulfill the operational data and instrument 

needs of space weather forecasters. 

http://www.acswa.us 

5 

Rationale: (NEW) Add. 
90 

American Commercial Space Weather Association 

§ 60704. Space weather data 

(c) SPACE WEATHER GOVERNMENT -INDUSTRY -UN!- VERSITY 

ROUNDTABLE.-The Administrator of the National Oceanic 

and Atmospheric Administration, in collaboration with the 

Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space 

Administration and the Director of the National Science 

Foundation, shall enter into an arrangement with the National 

Academies to establish a Space Weather Government-IndustryUniversity Roundtable, including tbe use of a 

Federal Advisory to facilitate 

communication and knowledge transfer among Government 

participants in the space weather interagency working group 

established under section 60701(f), industry, and academia 

toSEC. 6. ENSURING THE SAFETY OF CIVIL AVIATION. 

(a) IN GENERAL.-

(2) assess methods, including commercial options, to 

mitigate the safety implications and effects of space weather on 

aviation communication systems, aircraft navigation systems, 

satellite and ground-based navigation systems, and potential 

health effects of radiation exposure at commercial aviation 

altitudes; and 

(3} assess options, including commercial options, for 

incorporating space weather into operational training for 

pilots, cabin crew, dispatchers, air traffic controllers, 

meteorologists, and engineers. 

http:flwww.acswa.us 

6 
91 

AGU 

ADVANCING EARTH 

AND SPACE SCIENCE 

Dear Congressman Perlmutter: 

25 Aoril2018 

On behalf of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and its 60,000 members, I am writing to 

reaffirm our endorsement of the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act (H.R. 3086). We're 

encouraged that the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee is prioritizing this critical 

issue. 

Given the economic and opportunity costs associated with space weather, we support the bill's 

approach of creating a national, coordinated plan to advance our understanding of the 

relationship between the sun and Earth and to ensure the development of new technologies and 

forecasting capabilities to mitigate the threat posed by space weather. The National Research 

Council estimates that a severe space weather event has the potential to inflict $1-2 trillion dollars 

of economic and societal damage in the first year alone and impact more than 130 million people. 

To recover from such an event could take from 4-10 years.1 Moreover, space weather fluctuations 

are not limited to rare catastrophic events but regularly impact our society and economy. It's 

estimated that the average economic impact of moderate geomagnetic events on the electric 

power grid in the U.S. is $7 to $10 billion per year. 2 Additionally, a moderate space weather event, 

if it were to disable the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) for even one hour, would cost 

end-users, such as such as our energy and transportation sectors, $4 to $8 million in losses.3 

We appreciate the bill's recognition that a partnership between industry, academia, and federal 

agencies is needed to further our understanding and capacity to address the impacts of space 

weather. As a community dedicated to advancing the understanding of Earth and space science, 

we applaud the bill's intent to further scientifically-informed action towards disaster preparation, 

mitigation, response, and recovery. 

AGU looks forward to working with you as this legislation advances. 

1 National Research Council (2008) Severe Space Weather Events: Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A 

Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https:/ /doi.org/10.17226/12507. 2 Schrijver, C. J. (2015), Socio-Economic Hazards and Impacts of Space Weather: The Important Range Between Mild 

and Extreme, Space Weather, 13, 524-528, doi:l0.1002/2015SW001252. 

'Abt Associates (2017), Social and Economic of Space Weather in the Report for NOAA, 

2000 Florida Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20009-1277 I Tel: 202.462.6900 I Fax: +1 202.328.0566 I www.agu.org 
92 

AGU 

ADVANCING EARTH 

AND SPACE SCIENCE 

With best wishes, 

~)f}!e~ 

Christine W. McEntee 

CEO/Executive Director 

American Geophysical Union 

cc 

Chairman Lamar Smith 

Ranking Member Eddie Bernice Johnson 

2000 Florida Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20009-1277 I Tel: 202.462.6900 I Fax: +1 202.328.0566 I www.agu,org 
93 

26July 2017 

Dear Congressman Perlmutter: 

On behalf of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and its 60,000 members, I am writing 

to endorse the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act (H.R. 3086) and to thank you 

for crafting this important bill. 

Space weather has the potential to inflict trillions of dollars of damage on our economy, 

weaken our national security, and alter our way oflife. We support the bill's approach of 

creating a national, coordinated plan to advance our understanding of the relationship 

between the sun and Earth and to ensure the development of new technologies and 

forecasting capabilities to mitigate the threat posed by space weather. We also appreciate 

the bill's recognition that a partnership between industry, academia, and federal agencies is 

needed to further our understanding and capacity to address of space weather. 

As a community dedicated to advancing the understanding of Earth and space science, we 

applaud the bill's intent to further scientifically informed action towards disaster 

preparation, mitigation, response, and recovery. 

AGU looks forward to working with you as this legislation advances. 

cc 

Chairman Lamar Smith 

Ranking Member Eddie Bernice Johnson 

:!ll{l{l Flortd.l Avonu•. NW, W•<hioglon, OC 200ll9·U71 

Tel: 20<.462.6900 

Fax: +l 202.328.0566 

WW\V.agu.orq 

With best wishes, 

~y;we~ 

Christine W. McEntee 

CEO/Executive Director 

American Geophysical Union 
94 

c 

The Honorable Ed Perlmutter 

DR. DEVRIES. /NTRILIGATOR, DIRECTOR 

CARMEL RESEARCH CENTER J SPACE PLASMA LABORATORY 

P. O. BOX 1732, SANTA MONICA, CA 90406 

TEL: (310} 829·5275 

CRC.DEVR/E@GMAIL.COM / DEVRIEI@AOL.COM 

http://www.carmelresearchcenter.com/ 

July 7, 2017 

United States House of Representatives 

Washington, DC 205!5 

Dear Congressman Perlmutter, 

On behalf of Carmel Research Center Inc. (CRC), a member American Commercial Space Weather 

Association (ACSWA) and as a member of the ACSWA Executive Committee, we enthusiastically 

suppmt the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act (H.R. 3086, the Space Weather Research 

and Forecasting Act) that was intmduced for consideration in the House of Representatives on June 

27, 2017. Given that naturally occurring variations in the space envimnment between the Sun and 

Earth, called spaceweather, can have significant economic, safety, health, and national security 

implications for our technological society, we must expand our scientific understanding of the Sun 

Earth interactions to improve forecasting and mitigate the effects of space weather events. The Space 

Weather Research and Forecasting Act provides an excellent framework for U.S. Government 

agencies to coordinate that activity for our societal benefit. 

ACSWA is the leading U.S. commercial space weather industry association dedicated to improving 

America's competitive edge in space. ACSWA has a combined annual operating revenue and multistate job base larger than that ofNOAA 's Space Weather Prediction Center. ACSWA promotes space 

weather risk mitigation for critical national infrastructure related to national daily life, economic 

strength, and national security. In conjunction with its member companies, it has played a vital role in 

identifying important data and technology gaps that can be filled by commercial solutions. Cannel 

Research Center has played a leading role in developing value-added observations, products, and 

services on space weather for the benefit of human and property safety. They represent the growing, 

vibrant commercial sector for the space economy. 

Dr. 

:I:;'~J. Devrie S. Intriligator :t:~ Cannel Research Center, Inc. and ACSWA Executive Conunittee member 

CC: Rep. Lamar Smith 

Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson 

Rep. Andy Biggs 

Rep. Suzanne Bonamici 

Rep. Brian Babin 

Rep. Ami Bera 

Rep. Jim Bridenstine 

For more information on ACSWA see: hlliti6•;_w_)!'L,l!CS\VJ!J!§. 
95 

UNIVI!IUI!TV OF COLORADO AT !i!OULOER 

The Honorable Ed Perlmutter 

U.S. House of Representatives 

1410 Longworth House Office Building 

Washington, DC 20515 

Dear Representative Perlmutter: 

3665 Discove!)' Drive 

Boulder, CO 80303 

Telephone: (303) 492-4509 

Email: Daniei.Baker@lasp.colorado.edu 

July 14,2017 

On behalf of my colleagues at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics 

(LASP) and the University of Colorado Boulder, I write in support of the Space Weather 

Research and Forecast Act (H.R.3086). Given the continued threat and vulnerabilities 

facing our world from solar interactions with the Earth, we applaud the bicameral and 

bipartisan approach Congress is taking to address the challenges we face with respect to 

enhancing our nation's space weather forecasting capabilities. 

Throughout the Space Age, we have discovered and accumulated a vast knowledge on 

the governing physical processes of the various regions of both deep space as well as the 

space surrounding near-Earth. This knowledge has provided an opportunity to expand 

our reach into the solar system and beyond, as well as increase our Earth observation 

capabilities. Over time, the increased utilization of satellites continues to have a broad 

reach across our society, including within the security, public safety and commercial 

realms. The data we acquire from these satellites is vital in order to protect our national 

and economic interests, and interruptions stemming fi·om increased solar activity could 

prove detrimental in carrying out these important functions. 

As a result, the call to increase our space weather forecasting and mitigation capabilities 

was amplified by the National Academies Decadal Survey in Solar and Space Physics in 

2012, and again through the Office of Science and Technology Policy's Space Weather 

Action Plan that was released in October 2015. Through these calls, it has become a 

national imperative to streamline the mechanisms designed to help develop and maintain 

a forecasting system that not only help to predict space weather events, but to respond to 

them. We believe the Space Weather Research and Forecast Act will provide a 

collaborative fi·amcwork for the federal government and its agencies to work together 

alongside academic, international and commercial space communities to advance this 

critical undertaking. 

An important component of space weather research and monitoring is collaboration and 

cooperation among its many stakeholders. The legislation's call for enhanced 

interagency coordination as well as its goal for federal agencies to "increase engagement 

and cooperation with the international, commercial, and academic communities on the 

observational infrastructure, data, and scientific research necessary to advance the 

characterization, prediction, and mitigation of space weather events" will be vital in order 
96 

to increase our nation's forecasting and responsive capabilities. Furthermore, the 

establishment of a Space Weather Government-Industry-University Roundtable through 

the National Academies will ensure the exchange of scientific research and operational 

needs. Finally, the strong focus on research and operational capacity within this 

legislation underscores the important role academic institutions wUI continue to play in 

addressing the needs offederal at LASP, we take great pride in our 

expertise in t'esearch to operations and operations to research (R20/02R) capabilities, 

and we stand t-eady to assist in the cooperative model outlined in the H.R.3086 to 

advance our national space weather forecast and response capabilities 

Again, we applaud this legislation and its aim to streamline federal efforL~ working in 

conjunction with academic and commetcial space partners in order to better understand 

and predict space weather activities and their impacts on our national interests. Thank 

you for your outstanding support, and continue to think of us as resource and 

partner going forward. 

Sincerely, 

Dr. Daniel N. Baker 

Director, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics 

Distinguished Professor of Planetary and Physics 

Moog-Broad Reach Endowed Chair of Space Sciences 

Professor, Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences 

Professor, Department of Physics 

Cc: Chairman Lamar Smith 

Ranking Member Eddie Bernice Johnson 
97 

Penn State 

April 17,2018 

The Honorable Ed Perlmutter 

U.S. House of Representatives 

1410 Longworth House Office Building 

Wasblngtoo, DC 20515 

Dear Mr. Perlmutter: 

814.U:!-ll.'l4& 

F•x: Sl-!.1!6.l, 7100 

etw!l.ilSlt.-edu 

! write to express support for H.R.3086, the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act, and appreciation for 

your leadership on this legislation that aims to improve efforts. for predicting and mitigating space weather 

events. 

space weather, the 

legislation would improve resources aod make for the research community 

to model the frequency and severity of space weather events. This information will be helpful fer monitoring 

space weather events, particularly ceronal mass ejections and geomagnetic disturbances that can cause 

interruptions to the power grid an.d in satellites, affecting critical infrastructure that is dependent on 

communications technology and electricity. 

With an increase in focus and attention to space weather activities provided by tbls legislation, researchers with 

expertise in data essimilation and big data analysis at Pena State and around the nation can conduct risk analysis 

and plan for responses to space weather events before they occur. Penn State researchera aod eduoators in 

meteorology, geoinformatics, energy business and engineering, as well as social science, look forward to the 

data opportunities made available through tbls legislalh;m. 

Ifi or any of our experts in the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences can be of assistance to you, please feel 

free to contact my federal relations colleagues Amanda Wintersteen (A Wintersteen@psu.edu) and John Latini 

(JLalini@psn.edu) at 814-865-5431. 

Sincerely, 

LeeR. Kump 

Dean 
98 

OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT 

Antonio J. Busalacchi 

303·497·11152 

April 25, 2018 

The Honorable Ed Perlmutter 

1410 Longworth House Office Building 

Washington, DC 20515 

Dear Congressman Perlmutter, 

As a research organi7,ation committed to better understanding the earth system, Including 

the critical role of the sun in geospace sciences, the University Corporation for Atmospheric 

Research (UCAR) would like to thank you for proposing HR 3086- the Space Weather 

Research and Forecast Act and voice our strong support LikeS 141, the b!ll of the same 

name introduced by Senators Gardner, Peters, and Booker and passed by the Senate last 

year, HR 3086wlll enhance the integration of existing national efforts to understand, 

predict, prepare for, and mitigate space weather. 

Scientists are just beginning to understand the interactions betvveen our sun and the Earth. 

Given the growing national importance and reliance on technology, lt is critical that we 

expand our scientific understanding of the interactions between the sun and Earth so that 

we may improve forecasting and mitigate the effects of space weather events. Coupled with 

the National Space Weather Strategy and National Space Weather Action Plan, this 

legislation sets national priorities to increase and improve space weather observations, 

science, and forecasting abilities. 

Most of our understanding of space weather Is based on experience and knowledge gained 

over the last 30 years, though the historical record indicates space weather events of much 

greater severity have occU!·red within the last 150 years. Impacting airlines, GPS, and 

electric utilities, space weather events in recent history resulted in economic consequences 

in the tens of millions of dollars. Estimates for damage resulting from a repeat of the worst 

known event of the last 150 years range from $1-2 trillion in the first year alone. 

Scientists do not know the likelihood of such an event recurring, or even whether such an 

event is the worst-case scenario. 
99 

HR 3086 would provide clear roles and responsibilities to the various federal agencies 

responsible for understanding, predicting, and space weather, including the 

National Aeronautics and Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration {NOAA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the 

Department of Defense (DOD). As these are aU agencies with which we work regularly, this 

clarity would enable us to pursue research that will have the best Impact on society's 

ability to predict and respond to space weather events. 

Again, thank you for your tireless work supporting the science community in Colorado and 

across the United States. We appreciate your efforts on this bill and many other endeavors. 

Best regards, 

Antonio J. Busalacchi 

President 

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research 

NATIONAL 

BOJ\3000 

I 

l 

PROGRAMs 
100 

S. Jack Hu • Vice President for Research 

July 26, 2017 

The Honorable Ed Perlmutter 

United States House of Representatives 

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Representative Perlmutter: 

On behalf of the University of Michigan, I write to thank you for introducing the 

Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act (H.R. 3086). 

The Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act will help us avoid the 

significant economic and national security implications that could arise from a 

large-scale space weather event. This legislation provides critical guidance to 

federal agencies focused on improving our ability to understand, predict and 

forecast space weather events. 

I greatly appreciate the opportunity this legislation provides for the academic 

community's participation through the development of a Space Weather 

Government-Industry-University Roundtable. Such a collaboration will ensure 

all stakeholders are working together in a coordinated and efficient fashion. 

The University of Michigan stands ready to work with the federal government 

and others in advancing the characterization, prediction, and mitigation of space 

weather events. We appreciate the Senate's passage of the Space Weather 

Research and Forecasting Act (S.141} and urge the House Science Committee to 

consider their version of the legislation expeditiously. 

Once again, thank yon for championing this important legislation. We greatly 

appreciate your continued commitment to helping us better understand and 

predict space weather events. 

Sincerely, 

y~ S.JackHu 

CC: Chairman Lamar Smith 

Representative Jim Bridenstine 

734 763-00&i 

jackhu@umith.edu research.umich.edu 
101 

April 26, 2018 

The Honorable lamar Smith 

Chairman 

Committee on Science, Space, and Technology 

United States House of Representatives 

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Chairman Smith and Ranking Member Johnson, 

Offi<o of the Senior VIto Provost 

forRO$llal'l:h 

The Honorable Eddie Bernice Johnson 

Ranking Member 

Committee on Science, Space, and Technology 

United States House of Representatives 

Washington, D.C. 20515 

We are writing on behalf of the University of New Hampshire (UNH) to voice our strong support for the 

Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act (H.R. 3086). UNH urges swift passage of this bipartisan 

legislation critical to ensuring the United States is equipped to predict, mitigate, and respond to the 

hazards that space weather poses to our national security and economic wellbeing. 

Federal support for research and technology development is essential to improving the Nation's space 

weather readiness. Current space weather monitoring capabilities rely on an observational 

infrastructure that is incapable of providing the lead time required to undertake proper space weather 

mitigation measures. H.R. 3086 would support fundamental research into the physical processes behind 

space weather, enabling more sophisticated prediction capabilities and equipping decision-makers with 

the information and tools necessary to avert crippling damage to our satellites, electric power grid, and 

other sensitive assets that underpin our economy and national security apparatus. 

UNH Is especially supportive of Section 60703 of the bill, which would Identify specific research and 

development activities and outline dear roles and responsibilities of federal research agencies like the 

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Science Foundation (NSF). 

Particularly important to UNHand many of its peer institutions Is this legislation's commitment to 

advancing the consensus-based priorities identified by the scientific community and articulated in the 

National Academies Solar and Space Physics Decadal Survey. 

In general, we are pleased this bill promotes the translation of research outcomes to operational 

capabilities that will make our Nation stronger and safer. 

We thank you for your consideration, and we hope that UNH can serve as a resource for you as you 

continue working to address the pressing issue of space weather. 

Sincerely, tr" a. (t;J4; 

Dr. Jan Nisbet 

Senior Vice Provost for Research 

University of New Hampshire 

Dr. Harlan Spence 

Director, Institute for the Study of Earth, 

Oceans, and Space 

University of New Hampshire 
102 

July 12, 2017 

The Honorable Ed Perlmutter 

United States House of Representatives 

1410 Longworth House Office Building 

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Representative Perlmutter, 

Office of the Senior Vice Provost 

for Research 

:107 Thompson Han 

:tosMainStre-et 

Durham, NH 03824-3547 

We are writing on behalf of the University of New Hampshire (UNH) to voice our strong support for the 

Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act (H.R. 3086). UNH urges swift passage of this bipartisan 

legislation critical to ensuring the United States Is equipped to predict, mitigate, and respond to the 

hazards that space weather poses to our national security and economic wellbeing. 

Federal support for research and technology development is essential to improving the Nation's space 

weather readiness. Current space weather monitoring capabilities rely on an observational 

infrastructure that is Incapable of providing the lead time required to undertake proper space weather 

mitigation measures. H.R. 3086 would support fundamental research into the physical processes behind 

space weather, enabling more sophisticated prediction capabilities and equipping decision-makers with 

the information and tools necessary to avert crippling damage to our satellites, electric power grid, and 

other sensitive assets that underpin our economy and national security apparatus. 

UNH is especially supportive of Section 60703 of the bill, which would identify specific research and 

development activities and outline clear roles and responsibilities of federal research agencies like the 

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Science Foundation (NSF). 

Particularly important to UNH and many of its peer Institutions is this legislation's commitment to 

advancing the consensus-based priorities identified by the scientific community and articulated in the 

National Academies Solar and Space Physics Decadal Survey. 

In general, we are pleased this bill promotes the translation of research outcomes to operational 

capabilities that will make our Nation stronger and safer. 

We thank you for your consideration, and we hope that UNH can serve as a resource for you as you 

continue working to address the pressing issue of space weather. 

Sincerely, 

~"" a IL&t 

Dr. Jan Nisbet 

Senior Vice Provost for Research 

University of New Hampshire 

Dr. Harlan Spence 

Director, Institute for the Study of Earth, 

Oceans, and Space 

University of New Hampshire 

cc: The Honorable lamar Smith, Chairman, House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology 

The Honorable Eddie Bernice Johnson, Ranking Member, House Committee on Science, Space, and 

Technology 
103 

Mr. BABIN. And in the absence of Chairman Biggs, I’m the Chairman of the Space Subcommittee and will preside until he returns. 

And I’d like to recognize myself for five minutes for questions. 

During the recent 2018 Space Weather Workshop in Colorado, 

several presentations alluded to the private and academic opportunities within the overall space weather enterprise. These opportunities include the Space Weather Technology Research and Education Center at the University of Colorado in Boulder. Amen. And 

the possible use of future OneWeb commercial satellites as polar 

orbit environmental sensors. What other opportunities, especially 

in forecasting and prediction analytics, are available for the private 

and academic sectors to help NOAA, the Air Force, and NASA to 

accomplish space weather goals? Dr. Jacobs, I’d like to direct that 

to you first. 

Dr. JACOBS. The two primary things would be observations and 

forecasting. So we need observations both to initialize the predictions, as well is to verify the forecasts. So it’s impossible to improve a forecast unless you have observations for verification. 

The current state of the forecasting is we essentially see an event 

occurring on the Sun and then we can predict how that will impact 

the Earth, but there’s really no way to predict when these events 

will occur other than some weak probabilistic guidance, and that 

I think is where the future of the research needs to focus is actually predicting the onset of these events, not what happens once 

they occur. 

Mr. BABIN. All right. Thank you very much. 

And Dr. Spann, could you elaborate on that? 

Dr. SPANN. Yes. I think that understanding and being able to 

predict these events is really tied to the fundamental understanding of what’s going on. And as we all try to identify our swim 

lanes—and I’d like to take that analogy a little further—I think 

where we want to go is actually synchronized swimming. And so— 

but right now, we are identifying our swim lanes and understanding what roles each agency plays, and for NASA that is really 

providing the fundamental understanding. And as we not only 

launch these new missions, which are really targeted, we also have 

a new space weather application—science application program that 

we’re rolling out, which will allow competed opportunities very specifically tied toward transitioning the science research to an operational scenario, and that will certainly engage the academic and 

industry very heavily. And so those are the two areas where I 

would say—where we can get to the synchronized swimming scenario. 

Mr. BABIN. Well, we were just talking about Esther Williams 

and—so that’s a good analogy. And would either of the other two, 

Dr. Gibson or Dr. Tobiska, would you like to elaborate on that if 

you would? 

Dr. GIBSON. Sure, yes. I would just comment that there’s different kinds of observations that are needed, right? I mean, there’s 

the observations we need to make progress in the fundamental 

science, and this is the real cutting-edge new big telescopes. New 

measurements, and from different vantages. One of the exciting opportunities is to take observations from a place in the Sun’s orbit 

where you can look back and see a CME moving from the Sun to 
104 

the Earth. And this is something that the European Space Agency 

may actually take on and be an incredible complementary asset to 

our observations, which are looking right along the Sun-Earth line. 

You take that a little farther and you could observe from above 

the Sun’s poles looking down, and you would get that same operational benefit of seeing eruptions go from the Sun to the Earth directed at the Earth, and yet you’d get other scientific benefits as 

well. 

So there’s exciting opportunities for moving forward in the fundamental research, and then there’s other observations we need to 

basically have the best possible operational capabilities. And some 

of these are the ones we know about like the LASCO Coronagraph 

and the observations of the solar wind just upstream of the Earth. 

And these we have to maintain so we can keep doing as well as 

we are now, but there may be new operational assets that, as we 

move forward in the fundamental science, we identify as observations that can make us actually do better in terms of the operations. 

And then finally, the other kind of observations that we need in 

the benchmarking activity, are related to applied science goals. In 

the benchmarking activity, one of the things they tried to study 

was the geomagnetic activity and the ground currents, how extreme they could get. To do that, they needed magnetometers on 

the ground and also magnetotelluric surveys which tell you about 

the ground conductivity. And they found that only about half of the 

United States was really covered by these observations, and this 

represents another gap that we need. So we just keep finding new 

things that we need to observe. 

Mr. BABIN. Yes, thank you. And Dr. Tobiska? 

Dr. TOBISKA. Yes, just one or two comments. I would really like 

to echo my other colleagues who emphasized the observations needed of the material coming from the Sun to the Earth. Right now, 

we are really at the point like the tropospheric weather community 

was 50 years ago. We’re just a half-dozen cities making temperature measurements. We can’t predict when the snow is going to 

come over the mountain unless we look out the window. 

Now, we need to have the thousands and tens of thousands of 

measurements in that realm. They don’t exist yet. Plus there’s 

other measurements downstream for other technologies, but if we 

could solve that viewing of what’s coming at us from the Sun, 

knowing the velocity and the directionality of it to get the magnitude, that would be a big deal. 

Mr. BABIN. Right. Thank you. And I have about five other questions, but I’m out of time. A lot of them are—I really would like 

to hear some answers on, especially in regards to national security 

issues. 

But I would like to recognize Dr. Bera, the gentleman from California, for his five minutes. 

Mr. BERA. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As I said in my opening 

statement, these are fascinating hearings about science. And, you 

know, for those viewers at home I think it’s important—you know, 

often people say, well, why is Congress talking about space weather? But, you know, I think Dr. Gibson in your opening statement— 
105 

I think each of you talk about how these space phenomenon and 

solar phenomenon can impact every aspect of our lives. 

You talked about the electrical grid, you talked about our GPS 

and navigational systems, and, you know, often the public may just 

think, you know, GPS is, you know, what I’ve got on my phone and 

it helps me get from point A to point B, and if it goes down, well, 

what’s the big deal? I might have an old Thomas Guide in my glove 

box that I can open up and look in. 

But Dr. Gibson, maybe if you want to just expand—I mean, if 

we’re thinking about the future and we’re going to have autonomous vehicles, we’re going to have, you know, autonomous trucks, 

that’s all going to be reliant on GPS navigational systems. And if 

you just want to talk about the impact if GPS was knocked down. 

Dr. GIBSON. Yes, absolutely. And I think there’s a whole continuum there, right? I mean, there’s the degrading of GPS where 

it introduces errors, which can be very significant, maybe not for 

us if there’s a little glitch when we’re getting directions, maybe it’s 

not that big of a deal, but for doing mineral surveys or—there’s 

many, many applications where the precision is critical. And then 

if there’s a big event, there’s the potential for a true loss, and that’s 

something which hits so many different aspects of peoples in society today. 

Mr. BERA. So it’s incredibly important for us to better understand this phenomenon as we become increasingly reliant on these 

new technologies and so forth. 

Dr. Spann, you touched on the Parker Solar Probe and, you 

know, if you could just expand on what the solar probe would allow 

us to learn and why—you know, it’ll go closer to the Sun than I 

think anything we’ve ever sent, and if it will help us, you know, 

with predictable capabilities and what kind of science we’re going 

to learn from—— 

Dr. SPANN. So Parker Solar Probe is scheduled to be launched, 

and the window of opportunity opens up at the end of July through 

August, and that is really focused on two areas. One is trying to 

understand the acceleration processes. As much as we observe the 

solar wind, which are the particles emanating from the Sun, we 

don’t understand how they get up to the speeds they get up to. And 

so a lot of that acceleration process happens very, very close to the 

Sun, and we’ve remotely observed the Sun but never really actually 

gone and touched the Sun, and so Parker is going to be our first 

opportunity to do that, an incredible technology advance. 

So understanding that acceleration process and then also just understanding just kind of fundamentally, you know, parts of the 

solar atmosphere are hotter even than the surface of the Sun, and 

we just don’t understand that. And so what’s going on there? All 

of that provides us the fundamental understanding about how the 

Sun works and how it impacts our Earth system, and so Parker is 

going to provide a significant advancement in those areas. 

Mr. BERA. Yes, Dr. Gibson, if I—I’ll come back to you. You know, 

we obviously can try to better understand solar phenomenon and 

solar flares and things that potentially disrupt and cause space 

weather. Are there protective things that we can do, you know, 

here on Earth, you know, understanding that we can’t control it, 

but if we get better at predicting it, you know, what would the 
106 

things that we might do to protect some of our systems and, you 

know—or build redundancy? 

Dr. GIBSON. Absolutely. So, I mean, there’s a range of things. If 

we know what’s going to happen, for example, the power company 

can operate in modes that will avoid catastrophic failure, but—and 

the airlines can potentially change the altitude of their flights. 

There’s various things that can be done. The problem is it’s expensive to make these mitigations, and it’s critical that we don’t give 

false positives. We have to do better in our forecasting so that they 

can be taken seriously. And then also we can make use of the 

benchmarking activity to try to get a sense just how bad things can 

get can help us harden our assets so that we can prepare for the 

worst. 

Mr. BERA. Okay. Great. And I’m about out of time, but as a 

Member who represents California who also happens to be a physician, Dr. Tobiska, maybe I should get a lead-lined jacket or something for these flights. So thank you, and with that, I will yield 

back. 

Mr. BABIN. Thank you. I appreciate it, Dr. Bera. 

And now the gentleman from California, Mr. Rohrabacher. 

Mr. ROHRABACHER. I appreciate this hearing, and I appreciate 

the guidance that you’re trying to give us right now. 

How does space weather and a space weather storm—how does 

that compare to an EMP attack, for example, in terms of the danger that we face? Maybe just start at that end and go to that end. 

Dr. TOBISKA. That’s an excellent question, and I know that 

there’s been a community. I think the NRC has actually looked at 

that. In general, the severity of an EMP attack against the United 

States compared to a Carrington-class event are in the same order 

of magnitude. If we were to have a Carrington-class event in the 

United States today that affected, say, the Northeast of the United 

States, you could potentially have, you know, days to weeks to 

months of power outages. 

And the problem is is that the big transformers that distribute 

the power grid, when they’re hit by this induced current and they 

blow out, there are not transformers sitting on the shelf to replace 

them. If each one of these things—the big ones are custom-built. 

I’m not talking about the telephone pole ones. So building those 

takes months to do, and they’re not sitting around, so that’s the 

problem. 

Mr. ROHRABACHER. So a space weather storm could give us that 

same impact that we’ve been warned about with EMP. What 

could—for example, could some space weather storm impact on us 

to the point that people might wake up one day and not be able 

to use any of their credit cards or use their cell phone or things 

like that? 

Dr. SPANN. Yes. I think that because we—I mean, just think of 

in the morning you plug in everything, you know, to an outlet or 

whatever, so that—you know, anything that requires an outlet now 

is going to be a problem. And so it does impact a lot of things, all 

of—you know, we’re just so technologically dependent not only on 

the ground but in space for our communications, so it would, you 

know should such an event occur, it would impact—— 

Mr. ROHRABACHER. GPS? 
107 

Dr. SPANN. Yes. 

Mr. ROHRABACHER. Our GPS—— 

Dr. SPANN. Yes. 

Mr. ROHRABACHER. —system could go down? 

Dr. SPANN. Yes. And I would even make a point that, you know, 

it doesn’t take a huge event like that for things to become 

impactful to us, even with the errors in GPS, even without an EMP 

or without a major solar storm, just the irregularities in the 

ionosphere cause issues with communications and GPS signals. 

And so it was mentioned that space weather happens all the time, 

and yes, it’s punctuated with major storms, but we kind of live 

through it all the time. 

Mr. ROHRABACHER. So we’re pretty well—not pretty well but we 

have a certain degree of protection based on our own atmosphere 

and—that’s around the Earth but—so this means that as we go beyond the atmospheres, especially with satellites, and also deep 

space missions that this subcommittee oversees, that this is a 

major—has to be a major consideration if we’re expect to have a 

successful mission beyond that Earth atmosphere? 

Dr. SPANN. Yes. And I think the—if I could speak to the deep 

space aspect, there are really two issues that we can talk about 

space weather. One is a very strong variability that’s driven by the 

Sun and what’s going on, but then there’s a constant background 

radiation is primarily due to the galactic cosmic rays. And this is 

a place where I think industry can come in and have a major role. 

That background radiation, while it may be low-level, that’s actually the biggest concern at least for astronauts and humans out in 

deep space. And so understanding how to protect ourselves and 

shield ourselves from that, we don’t have a good solution for that, 

and I think this is a place where we could put some emphasis as 

well. 

Mr. ROHRABACHER. Yes. I have always been surprised at the dangers that the world faces that nobody even knows about or cares 

about, and I’ve often in this committee tried to draw our attention 

to the fact that an asteroid could actually be discovered that might 

hit the Earth that we should be prepared for it. And I think that 

what we’re talking about today is of that magnitude that we need 

to be aware that this would be an earthshattering—there are potential earthshattering events when it comes to this space weather 

storms and also the things that we’ve been talking about. 

So thank you, Mr. Chairman, for your leadership in both the 

Subcommittees, and let’s work together to try to—it’s our job to 

make sure we work on things that can bring down the damage that 

would be done on one of these natural threats. Thank you very 

much. 

Mr. BABIN. Yes, sir. Thank you, Mr. Rohrabacher. 

Now, I’d like to recognize the gentlelady from Oregon, Ms. 

Bonamici. 

Ms. BONAMICI. Thank you very much to Chairman Babin, Chairman Biggs, Ranking Member Bera, and thank you to our witnesses. 

I apologize I wasn’t here during your testimony. I had a conflict 

with another hearing. But this is a fascinating and important topic, 

and I’m trying to figure out who’s going to be the first person to 
108 

use synchronized swimming and swarm task force in the same sentence. 

But to each witness, in northwest Oregon and in fact around the 

country it’s essential that our constituents have access to accurate 

warnings about extreme weather events ahead of time to help vulnerable residents prepare. And last Congress this committee 

passed—in fact the House passed and the President signed into law 

bipartisan legislation I worked on with then Representative 

Bridenstine, now NASA Administrator Bridenstine, to strengthen 

terrestrial weather forecasting. But unlike terrestrial weather 

events, space weather has a broader potential to affect our entire 

planet. The Sun of course and its constant activity present so many 

risks for significant space weather events, as you have discussed. 

Unfortunately, we are decades there, as Dr. Tobiska points out, 

50 years behind with the forecast capability of terrestrial weather 

predictions and are not yet able to prepare ourselves fully before 

an event occurs. And I know you have described both in your responses and in your testimony the implications of inaction and not 

moving forward with developing a more robust forecasting capability. And I want to acknowledge the progress, however, that’s 

been made to date. 

So I want to ask what data gaps need to be addressed in our current space weather observing infrastructure that would help us 

better prepare against these threats, and also if you could let us 

know whether there is additional technology that needs development or is there sufficient technology if we could get the policy 

through updating? Go ahead, whoever wants to start, and then I 

do have another question. So, Dr. Spann? 

Dr. SPANN. Well, I was just going to mention that just from a 

fundamental perspective really advancing our models based on the 

data input and the theories that our folks out in the academia and 

the industry are providing, that I think provides that 

foundational—and I’ll let others speak to kind of how you implement that, but that is where I see us focusing on. I think we’ve 

talked about very large missions but also having distribute missions within the ionosphere with many, many small satellites and 

other very fascinating things, which again the academia and industry can partner very heavily with government to do that. 

Dr. TOBISKA. Yes, I would just add a comment on this. The academic community, some in industry and certainly in the agencies 

have really begun to take on the lessons from the terrestrial weather community. Fifty years ago, they had the big physics-based models but not much data, so the forecasts weren’t very good. Now, our 

forecasts are really pretty good but they have a lot of data coming 

in, so it’s like knowing the answer—it’s like cheating on the exam. 

You know what’s coming at you, but that data assimilation in the 

physics-based models is critical. And then having several models 

run simultaneously in ensemble modeling like they do for the hurricane tracks—you have a whole bunch of models that you can see 

where they’re coming—those—the combination of those two kinds 

of modeling with the data being ingested into them would really 

make a significant difference. I think the community as a whole 

really sees that as a path forward, but certainly, as colleagues have 

said, observations are really critical to feeding that. 
109 

Ms. BONAMICI. Terrific. We also had some good discussions in 

this Committee about the social sciences of message communication, which I think will be critical as well here. Dr. Gibson, can you 

talk about what the disadvantages or advantages of coordinating or 

streamlining both nationally and internationally with our efforts to 

gather space weather data? Is there potential for overlap or redundancy between agencies if there’s not a direction on how to proceed? 

Dr. GIBSON. There’s definitely efficiencies of bringing together so 

that we’re all working towards the same goal with our synchronized swimming. You know, there’s also a huge benefit from 

sharing data between agencies, and, you know, the benchmarking 

activity is a great example of how having everybody bring their expertise and their knowledge to the table so we can really make 

progress. 

There was a release of data recently I think from the DOD that 

was part of the executive order which was satellite data of space 

weather from the DOD and which both introduces important new 

observations into the scientific analysis of space weather and also 

provides an opportunity for the DOD to get research done in the 

direction where they would really care about. 

Ms. BONAMICI. And real quickly, how are we doing with international collaboration? 

Dr. GIBSON. Fabulous. And this L5 collaboration particularly, 

which would be the Sun-Earth view from the side, is a wonderful 

opportunity. 

Ms. BONAMICI. Thank you. I see my time is expired. I yield back. 

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

Mr. BABIN. Sorry about that. Thank you very much, Ms. 

Bonamici. 

I’d like to recognize the gentleman from Alabama, Mr. Brooks, 

now for five minutes of questions. 

Mr. BROOKS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

Dr. Tobiska, you mentioned a Carrington-class storm. What is 

that and how frequently do they occur? 

Dr. TOBISKA. Great question. They occur infrequently. First of 

all, the name comes from an 1859 event that Dr. Gibson mentioned 

where they observed it from the ground. They saw big streamers 

coming off the Sun when the clouds were there in London. That 

event caused aurora over Cuba. It caused balls of fire going down 

telegraph lines in the Midwest, and it also caused I think a fire in 

a telegraph station in Madison Square Garden in New York City. 

So this is where there’s huge geomagnetic currents set up in the 

Earth’s crust. Those currents have got to go somewhere, and they 

follow the path of least resistance, so they go down power lines, 

they go down oil pipelines. Wherever they can go, they’ll travel. So 

that’s kind of what a Carrington-class event is. 

The occurrence rate are very infrequent, although we had an 

event on—in July of 2012 where, had the event occurred about four 

days later when that region on the Sun was facing us, we would 

have had an extremely large geomagnetic event, maybe not a 

Carrington but certainly like a G4 level, like a—it’d be like a G4 

hurricane. However, it was on the side of the Sun. It had just— 

the Sun had rotated around and we just missed that one, so those 
110 

happen maybe on the order of once every solar cycle or every 10 

or 12 years. There’s probably moderate-sized storms that happen 

every year, but that’s kind of the frequency of those. 

Mr. BROOKS. Was the 1989 Hydro-Qu ́ ebec power collapse caused 

by a Carrington-class storm? 

Dr. TOBISKA. No, it wasn’t. It was a smaller storm than the 

Carrington event, but it just happens that the ground conductivity 

in that part of the—North America is very susceptible to strong 

currents, and the Hydro-Qu ́ ebec power grid was not able to trigger 

off its transmission lines quickly enough. 

Mr. BROOKS. And how long was there a power collapse in the 

1989 Hydro-Qu ́ ebec? 

Dr. TOBISKA. In that one it was for a few hours to a few days 

in that region, yes. 

Mr. BROOKS. Dr. Spann, in your written testimony you state, 

‘‘For example, the electric power industry is susceptible to 

geomagnetically induced currents, which can overload unprotected 

power grids and result in widespread power outages.’’ What has to 

be done to protect power grids? 

Dr. SPANN. Well, I think there are kind of two things that need 

a look at. One is providing the early warning to those power grids 

so that they can—and I’m not a power grid operator or an expert 

necessarily in this field but they can reroute power in ways that 

the predicted induced currents on their power lines would not damage their transformers, which, as Dr. Tobiska mentioned, that is 

kind of the failure mode there, so kind of reservicing how they 

route their power is one way, but that requires some predictive capability. And so, again, trying to understand how this works and 

providing that information through the operational agencies so that 

they can provide that information down to the power companies 

is—I think is the way to prevent that sort of occurrence. 

Mr. BROOKS. I thought when you began you said two ways, so 

we’ve got early warning. Is there a second thing that can be done 

to protect the power grid? 

Dr. SPANN. Well, the early warning is kind of the initial step. 

The second step is that the power grids need to develop a system, 

and perhaps they already do, where they can reroute their power 

so that it avoids areas that we think are going to have large currents and being induced, so that would be the second. 

Mr. BROOKS. Any judgment on how much cost as necessary in 

order to provide that kind of early warning with the accuracy and 

precision that is necessary for the power distributors to be able to 

properly react and plan and minimize damage? 

Dr. SPANN. That’s not something that I’m able to provide. I think 

there may be other people on the panel that could provide that. I 

would not know what that is. 

Mr. BROOKS. Well, my time has expired, but if anyone has a 

quick answer—the Chairman might indulge us—on how much the 

cost might be. 

Mr. BABIN. Sure. 

Dr. GIBSON. I’ll make an answer which is that it’s not a quick 

answer because it’s a complicated problem. To do what you just 

asked for, which is to get accurate forecasts of how bad the geomagnetic activity is, we don’t have that answer yet, and there’s no 
111 

one single thing that could be done that would do that, so it would 

be hard to answer that question. 

Mr. BROOKS. All right. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

Mr. BABIN. Thank you. All interesting and important stuff. 

I’d like to recognize the gentleman from Virginia, Mr. Beyer. 

Mr. BEYER. Mr. Chairman, thank you very much. And thank all 

of you. It’s a fascinating topic. 

Dr. Spann, you wrote about how the Heliophysics Division is in 

the process of selecting its next strategic mission and decadal survey priority, the IMAP program. The boundary of our solar system 

and investigating acceleration process is critical to our understanding our space weather. How do you define the boundary of the 

solar system, and why is that important? 

Dr. SPANN. So it’s important from the aspect of just understanding how the universe works, how our solar system works. 

IMAP is the interstellar mapping acceleration probe, and it is really focused on understanding the solar wind, how that solar wind, 

driven by the Sun, how it expands and basically defines the region 

of our solar system as it impacts the interstellar space. And so 

interstellar space is the space between solar systems, and there is 

a boundary that—upon what’s called the heliopause, and understanding how our solar system and the solar wind expands and 

interacts with that interstellar space, that is that boundary in 

which, for example, the Voyager spacecraft you all may have seen 

have now gone beyond that and understanding how that interface 

operates and what physics occurs there is what IMAP is focused 

on. 

Mr. BEYER. And the heliopause is where—basically where the 

solar wind peters out? 

Dr. SPANN. Basically, it peters out. It buffets up against the 

interstellar space, and that boundary is a place where actually very 

interesting physics occurs, including perhaps acceleration of cosmic 

rays and energetic particles. 

Mr. BEYER. That’s where it runs into the dark matter. 

Dr. SPANN. Yes, well—— 

Mr. BEYER. Dr. Jacobs, in talking about all the different—the 

solar flares, particle events, CMEs, et cetera, go back to the 1859 

Carrington event, which is the biggest one, and that you think it’s 

8 minutes and 20 seconds for light to get from the Sun here, and 

it took 17 hours—17.6 hours for that coronal mass ejection to get 

here. What can we do in 8 minutes or in 17 hours to get ready for 

one of these events that we observe? 

Dr. JACOBS. Well, the 8 minutes is related to the photons, and 

the 17 hours to roughly 3 to 4 days is the plasma. And so it’s the 

1- to 4-day lead time for the coronal mass ejection that’s the real 

problem. And like we’ve been hearing from the other witnesses 

today, the big—I think the hardest problem to solve is understanding how to predict the occurrence of those, not what we currently do, which is forecast how they will propagate away from the 

Sun after the event happens. We need to predict when the event 

is going to happen on the Sun, and that is cutting-edge basic research. 

Mr. BEYER. So we’re looking for weeks or months of warning 

rather than 17 hours? Right. 
112 

And, Dr. Gibson, in your testimony you talked about 1967 when 

space weather disrupted radar and radio communications that was 

initially interpreted by the U.S. military as a possible hostile act 

by the Soviet Union. 

Dr. GIBSON. Right. 

Mr. BEYER. What are the implications for a major event—major 

space weather event on our nuclear deterrent, launch on warning, 

space missile, you know, the nuclear shield? 

Dr. GIBSON. Yes, I think—I mean, it’s clear the military gets 

space weather, and back in 1967 it was sort of a wake-up call. And 

it’s a good story. It’s a story where it was because they had space 

weather, it was really, really early days but they had people on 

staff who were looking at the Sun and making observations and 

were able to say, hey, the fact that those radars are blocked, that’s 

not the Soviet Union, that’s the Sun. And it took a while for the 

information to get around and there were tense moments when 

there were aircraft ready to take off, but the information did get 

out and averted some potentially very serious repercussions. 

And we talked about the EMPs earlier. I mean, being able to 

know and recognize space weather for what it is is absolutely critical from the point of view of our military preparedness. 

Mr. BEYER. And quickly, do you have confidence that the nuclear 

powers have a better understanding of this now than they did in 

1967? 

Dr. GIBSON. Absolutely, definitely have a better understanding 

than then. 

Mr. BEYER. All right. Thank you. Mr. Chair, I yield back. 

Mr. BABIN. Yes, sir. Thank you. 

I’d like to recognize the gentleman from Florida, Dr. Dunn. 

Mr. DUNN. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. 

Dr. Tobiska, you caught everybody’s imagination with the airline 

trips. Let me just sort of plug that in a little bit more. Was that 

analysis of the chest x-ray at 37,000 feet, was that just an analysis 

at that altitude or does that take into account the attenuation of 

the fuselage of the aircraft? 

Dr. TOBISKA. That’s a great question. That is—that’s—for North 

America in particular, that’s kind of the average dose that you get 

if you’re flying commercially, you know, at 37,000 feet for 10 hours. 

But that is only from the—as we were just mentioning earlier, from 

IMAP, that’s only from the galactic cosmic rays—— 

Mr. DUNN. Right, right, so that’s cosmic, not the CMEs and 

what—— 

Dr. TOBISKA. That’s right. If there’s a—— 

Mr. DUNN. So I was going to ask how that’s affected by carbon 

fiber aircraft fuselage now, which are coming into vogue with the 

big super—— 

Dr. TOBISKA. Yes. So basically, it’s—it doesn’t make a difference. 

The issue is is that the really energetic particles come in. Even if 

we coated the planes with lead, okay, which the airlines wouldn’t 

want us to do—— 

Mr. DUNN. Yes. There’s a penalty for that. 

Dr. TOBISKA. That’s right. The more energetic particles would 

still make it through. They create a spray of lower energy stuff, 

and it’s that soup that we’re actually embedded in—— 
113 

Mr. DUNN. So that goes to the CMEs then. There’s no Faraday 

cage available to us there? 

Dr. TOBISKA. That’s right. 

Mr. DUNN. Okay. 

Dr. TOBISKA. Yes. 

Mr. DUNN. So also in your testimony you said 1990 NORAD lost 

200 satellites. Did they lose them permanently or temporarily? 

Dr. TOBISKA. No, but that’s a good point. So they—there’s a 

fence, a space surveillance fence, a radar fence that the objects are 

coming through, and if they don’t come through at a certain time, 

they had to go and look for other objects. Well, as it turns out, 200 

of them from the big density changes from that big geomagnetic 

storm caused the satellites to have their orbits changed such that 

they didn’t come to the fence at the right time. So they had to go 

off looking for other objects. But now a new object came through. 

They didn’t know if it was a missile or they didn’t know if it was 

an old object that had been delayed in its orbit. So that was a big 

deal to lose—— 

Mr. DUNN. They’ve certainly misplaced these 200. 

Dr. TOBISKA. Yes, right, they did find them there, but it took a 

lot of work on their part. 

Mr. DUNN. They just lost track of them right? 

Dr. TOBISKA. They lost track of them. Yes. 

Mr. DUNN. Thank you for that clarification. I was worried we 

were going to have to replace every single satellite. 

So what steps do we take to harden our satellites these days now 

that we know this? I guess that’s a Dr. Gibson question maybe. 

Dr. GIBSON. Practical steps, I think you need to—I would first 

answer that you need to figure out exactly how bad it could be, and 

that’s this benchmarking activity. To say how bad is it going to be 

from—if it’s a Carrington storm or could be even worse because 

there’s the question of, you know, we’ve only got 100 or so years 

of experience with this, and how bad might it be in the future? And 

there’s been studies, for example, looking at other stars, looking at 

records on the moon, in ice cores to try to get a sense of how bad 

the radiation could be, and it could even be worse than anything 

we’ve experienced or the Carrington storm. So that’s the first step 

is to get that climatology to get that set benchmarking. 

And then in terms of the technical hardening, that’s outside my 

wheelhouse. I don’t know if Kent wants to—— 

Dr. SPANN. So I would just respond a little bit from the technical 

side, as NASA builds its spacecraft, which are science in providing 

fundamental understanding. Nevertheless, they have to survive in 

space and have to survive these storms. And so understanding how 

parts, electronic parts the sit on boards, electronic boards, how they 

respond to that environment, how different materials degrade over 

time, all of these things are part of really understanding our space 

environment and space—— 

Mr. DUNN. You’re actually launching a probe into the Sun. 

Dr. SPANN. Absolutely. 

Mr. DUNN. Or right near the Sun. So what are you doing to 

harden that one? 

Dr. SPANN. Oh, that is a major accomplishment. That—the big 

issue there, as you can imagine, is temperature, right? And so 
114 

there was a significant effort of—focused on the heatshield that 

provides—it’s going so close to the Sun but yet right behind that 

heatshield it’s a nice warm, you know, 80 degrees Fahrenheit or 

something like that. It’s amazing what they’ve done. 

So that’s not—so that’s a temperature thing but nevertheless 

think of the same thing in terms of radiation environment, how to 

protect those parts, the components—— 

Mr. DUNN. The charged height—— 

Dr. SPANN. Yes. 

Mr. DUNN. —energetic charged particles—— 

Dr. SPANN. Right. And— 

Mr. DUNN. Can you give me a hint what you’re doing on that? 

Dr. SPANN. Well, I’m not a parts person, but I just know that 

they do spot-shield them with some heavier elements, lead and titanium and those sorts of things—— 

Mr. DUNN. So you’re a great time manager. You’ve cleverly— 

we’ve run out of time again. I want to get the answer to that question so— 

Dr. SPANN. Sorry about that. 

Mr. DUNN. I yield back, Mr. Chairman. 

Mr. BABIN. All right. Thank you. Very, very fascinating. 

I’d like to recognize the gentleman from Florida—— 

Mr. CRIST. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

Mr. BABIN. —Mr. Crist. Yes, sir. 

Mr. CRIST. Thank you. And thank you to our witnesses today for 

being here. We appreciate it. 

The district that I represent is Pinellas County, Florida, which 

is a peninsula. It’s surrounded on all three sides by water, and of 

course you know that Florida is a peninsula as well. So I understand the importance of being able to predict weather. It’s pretty 

important to us in the Sunshine State. And the same certainly 

holds true for space weather. And it’s important that we are sufficiently prepared to predict it and respond to it. 

And Dr. Gibson, I had a question. In your testimony you write 

that ‘‘Our best bet for filling gaps in our scientific understanding 

of the space weather chain is through observations.’’ What kind of 

new observations would be useful to our understanding of space 

weather in your view? 

Dr. GIBSON. So observations that get at the problem at the 

source so can define the magnetic field and the eruption at the Sun 

because if you’re going to try to get it at the Earth, you have to 

first get the input, right? And then observations that show how it 

may change between the Sun and the Earth so, for example, observations using coronagraphic or heliographic imaging as it moves 

from Sun to Earth, observations from other vantages where you 

could look down from the poles, for example, or off from the side 

to really characterize this. 

And then you get to the Earth. You need to get a better sense 

of our Earth space environment, constellation observations and the 

tail of the Earth’s magnetic field would be really important for 

that, and then, again, distributed or constellation observations and 

ground-based observations of the ionosphere and the upper atmosphere. 
115 

And I want to say that these are—emphasize again these are 

both space-based and ground-based observations. A lot of the observations you can do of the Sun, for example, you can do with 

ground-based telescopes. There’s a trade there. The ground-based 

telescopes can get really, really big because you don’t have to 

launch them, and so you can do very high-resolution observations. 

The space-based observations take you to places, vantages, viewpoints that you just can’t get to from the ground and also let you 

see wavelengths of light that you can’t from the ground, for example. 

Mr. CRIST. Thank you. And is it important that we plan our future observing platforms around our research needs? 

Dr. GIBSON. Absolutely, and that goes for the fundamental research that we need before we can actually do much better in 

terms of our forecasting, and it also goes in terms of the applied 

research that we need to do to determine what the most useful observations are for operations. 

Mr. CRIST. Thank you. And I guess to Dr. Jacobs and Dr. Spann, 

is there a backup plan if any one of our space weather observing 

systems discontinues working? 

Dr. JACOBS. Well, currently, we are single-threaded on a 

coronagraph through SOHO, which was launched in 1995, and it 

was a research-grade probe with roughly a three-year lifespan, so 

it was truly remarkable that it’s still reporting data. But we do 

know that we’re expecting the solar rays to start to degrade in 

their ability to provide power starting in 2020 and be fully out of 

power roughly by 2025. And we do have a plan to deploy a compact 

coronagraph. It’ll be available roughly 2021 with a deployment 

around 2024 to 2025. 

Mr. CRIST. My next question is directed to all of the witnesses. 

In your opinions, have there been sufficient advances in our understanding of space weather since the Space Weather Action Plan 

was released, and if not, why not? 

Dr. TOBISKA. I would just like to jump in with one initial comment from the commercial perspective. The—I think across the 

board all three sectors, the commercial, academic, and agencies 

really feel that the agencies taking the bull by the horns on that 

activity really gave us some good guidance. 

And I think where we’re at at this point is we’ve recognized that 

we’re all doing some part of this elephant of space weather so that 

we don’t unnecessarily compete with one another or duplicate resources. We need to figure out a process by which we can—between 

agencies, academia, and industry, begin to talk to one another on 

a regular basis so that we really coordinate our efforts and don’t 

waste our resources on it. 

Dr. GIBSON. And I’ll just add that I think we’ve made great 

progress but not enough, and we still don’t really know what the 

problem is. We’re still defining the problem. And so we’ve made 

progress, and we’ve got all these great activities and we have to 

keep the momentum going and get a better idea of what is needed. 

Dr. SPANN. I would echo both—not that we don’t have the problem solved, that we need more fundamental research, but from an 

observational perspective I think a place where all of us can play 

together is with some of these distributed space missions that we 
116 

really haven’t talked very much about, but we’ve talked a lot about 

solar imaging and trying to understand and predict with the Sun’s 

going to do but then understanding how the ionosphere and the 

magnetosphere respond. 

And some of the ways that we could observe that to really make 

great progress is with these small satellite distributed areas. And 

this is new technology that really I would say industry and the 

commercial has really taken the lead on. And I think that, as the 

agencies begin to better understand how to use those very small 

satellite and those technologies, we can do a much better job in 

terms of understanding and providing predictive capability that can 

be transitioned into the operational world. 

Mr. CRIST. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I yield back. 

Mr. BABIN. You bet. Thank you very much. 

And I’d like to recognize the gentleman from Indiana, Mr. Banks. 

Mr. BANKS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

First of all, I have a letter from Purdue University that I would 

like I would like to enter into the record. 

Mr. BABIN. Without objection. 

[The information follows:] 
117 

PURDUE 

April 26, 2018 

The Honorable lamar Smith 

Chairman 

School of Aeronautics and Astronautics 

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING 

House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology 

2321 Rayburn House Office Building 

Washington, D.C. 20515 

Dear Chairman Smith: 

Thank you for holding this hearing, Surveying the Space Weather Landscape, on the current state of space 

weather science. Purdue Univer:sity has a long history of studying space, space travel, space 

communications, and extra-terrestrial objects. Known as the "Cradle of Astronauts," twenty-four Purdue 

University alumni have been selected for travel to space. But the astronauts are not the only Purdue link 

to space - many Purdue University professors and their students have been actively Involved in research 

that furthers our reach in space while improving lives on Earth. 

One crucial aspect for understanding space weather and its human impact is the prediction of space 

weather events. Many space weather phenomenon are well understood when measurements are 

available, after the fact, but predictive capabilities are lacking. Thls includes short-term prediction of the 

solar events and collision objects, but also long-term predictions of the phenomena themselves and their 

effects. 

In my current research, I focus on two space weather aspects. First Is the effect of space weather, such as 

geomagnetic storms, on the current space debris population. While solar storms are time-limited, they do 

cause a secular trend In uncontrolled orbits, changing the population In long term predictions. This means 

that the effects of geomagnetic storms do not wash out over time, but build up, leading the debris objects 

to end up in different orbit than without geomagnetic storms. As space debris mitigation measures are 

based on long-term predictions that is on predictions in which orbits those objects are going to be in 10 

or 20 years, necessary corrections need to be made in order to not base mitigation efforts on wrong 

premises .. 

An aspect that is currently unsolved In research is the prediction of solar storms and coronal mass ejection. 

Only reliable predictions allow to implement measures to protect our power grid on earth and failure In 

GPS connectivity on our satellites. Our reliance on the power grid and satellite navigation is only going to 

Increase In the Immediate future. This also results In a new vulnerability towards solar storms and the 

effects of coronal mass ejections. Systems can be protect shutting them down or making targeted 

disconnections during the limited time of the solar storm. The damage can be reduced and precaution 

measures can be taken, but these measures will only be effective when solar phenomena can be reliably 

predicted with a sufficient warning time. 

Nell Armslrol1g Han of Engineering • 701 w. Stadium Avo. • W..! Lafayette. IN 47ll07-2045 

76&-494..5117 • Fax: 765-494-0307 • aae@purdue.edu • https:/Jeng1neertng.putdue.edu1ME 
118 

PURDUE School of Aeronautics and Astronautics 

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING 

Second, on a wider aspect of Space Weather, not focusing solely on solar effects, the United States is Ill 

equipped to accurately predict and respond to hazardous large natural impactors on Earth. Detections 

based on optical measurements alone lead to significant gaps in detection capabilities, as the meteor that 

exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013 Impressively showed. In that case, the meteor was of dark 

material that Is minimally reflective In the optical spectrum, and entered Earth's atmosphere without first 

being detected. Even when detections are made, astrodynamic modeling is insufficient to quickly and 

reliably predict the object's orbit and if it Is going to hit the earth with certainty. This can only be done 

when Information beyond the state, such as shape, materials, and attitude motion (self-rotation) of the 

asteroid, can be assessed and correctly modeled, because those parameters effect its trajectory. Having 

an accurate measure of trajectory allows for sufficient warning time to activate pre-developed and tested 

engineering measures to deflect or destroy a potential Impactor. None of these measures are currently 

established, leaving us vulnerable. I study the methods to assess parameters and determine a good orbit 

that allows for certainty if an object is going to impact the earth at a far enough point In the future to give 

sufficient warning time. Both the predictive capabilities and the engineered solutions benefit from 

continued research. 

Solar origin space weather phenomenon such as coronal mass ejections, solar flares, solar energetic 

particles and geomagnetic storms have a direct effect on power grid operation on earth, radio navigation 

frequency transmission to GPS satellites, and the on-board electronic systems. It also alters the earth 

atmosphere, leading to an altered satellite drag. Satellite drag determines how long a satellite can stay in 

orbit, and has a direct impact on mission capabilities. Ultimately, there is are still significant advances to 

be made in our understanding of space weather phenomena, and our ability to predict and mitigate its 

effects on space exploration and here on Earth. 

Sincerely, 

Dr. Carolin Frueh, Assistant Professor 

School of Aeronautics & Astronautics 

Purdue University 

Nell Armstrong Hall ofEngineMng • 701 W. Stadium Ave. • West latlyette.IN 47907~2045 

765-494~5117 • Fax: 765494.0307 • aae@purdue.edu • https;//eng!neerlng.purdue.edu/AAE 
119 

Mr. BANKS. Thank you. 

My first question is for Dr. Jacobs. I understand that NOAA has 

a number of international partnerships and that in return provides 

data back and forth. I wonder if that is true for space weather specifically or if there are any other countries that generate space 

weather data, and does NOAA at all rely on that data from other 

countries? 

Dr. JACOBS. So the relationship we have with the international 

MetServices is a little bit different than the international space 

agencies, so it’s roughly a five to one on the space-based Earth-directed weather data we collect. We provide roughly 5 times the 

amount of data that we get in return. 

On space weather, it’s a little bit different. For the most part, we 

are the sole provider of this. However, we are in conversations 

right now with the European Space Agency to potentially share different positions for coronagraph measurements at L1 and L5. 

Roughly speaking, if ESA is going to deploy at L5, then the 

thought is we may deploy at L1 and then share data. So having 

observations from two different vantage points would be very advantageous, but that’s just preliminary discussions right now. 

Mr. BANKS. Okay. Thank you. 

Dr. Tobiska, in your testimony you mentioned that space environment technology has been creating and sole-source distributing 

the Dst index to the United States Air Force since 2012. Recognizing that we are in an unclassified setting today, can you still 

give us an indication of the importance of this index for the Air 

Force mission and operations planning? 

Dr. TOBISKA. Absolutely. The product was developed as part of 

the Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) program through 

an Air Force research laboratory activity back in 2010 to 2012 or 

’13. We coordinated—or we worked with the USGS to help develop 

this Dst index. They have an excellent index. It’s probably the best 

one in the world now at 1 minute resolution. That data product 

then goes into the geomagnetic forecast for Space Command as 

part of this whole effort to understand how these geomagnetic 

storms affect upper atmosphere density. So we provide operationally to them. Every few hours they get the update from us both for 

solar as well as these Dst indices. 

The one thing about the Dst index is that that particular index 

itself really helped beat down the uncertainty in atmosphere density because now we are able to get some time resolution on how 

these big storms are occurring and when they’re recovering and to 

get a better handle on what it’s doing to atmosphere densities. 

It’s not perfect. Our forecasts to be honest with you are pretty 

bad sometimes, and that’s because we simply don’t have enough information to know exactly when things are going to arrive or how 

big they’re going to be. But we do make a reduced time granularity 

product available publicly, yes. 

Mr. BANKS. Okay. Along that same note, Dr. Spann, how important is the relationship between the Department of Defense’s ability to mitigate space weather risk and operations and planning? 

Dr. SPANN. Well, I think it’s hugely important. Thank you for 

bringing that up. I think that the Department of Defense relies 

heavily, heavily on communications, particularly ground-to-Earth, 
120 

Earth-to-ground in very, very different scenarios. There are indicators that operations at times have been impacted by space weather 

or probable space weather events, and so they are very interested 

in understanding the fundamental processes that particularly occur 

in the lower—in the ionosphere that creates scintillation, and those 

types of very, very applied aspects are some of the areas that the 

Department of Defense is really focused on. And so, again, providing that fundamental information so that they can develop a 

better operational environment or tools to help the warfighter or 

the planning of whatever they’re doing is I think a critical place, 

critical role that space weather plays in that. 

Mr. BANKS. I appreciate the feedback. I yield back. 

Mr. BABIN. Thank you very much. 

And I’d now like to recognize the gentleman from Pennsylvania, 

Mr. Lamb. 

Mr. LAMB. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 

I’m just going to address kind of one wrap-up question to everybody if that’s okay. It seems like the common theme uniting each 

of the issues we talked about, whether it’s the effect on DOD, the 

effect on the grid, and the effect on GPS is your ability to accurately observe, measure, or research about these events. So that 

tells me that you’re looking for more advanced or complicated 

equipment, personnel. Could you just kind of break down a little 

more concretely almost what your wish list is or what the needs 

are in that area? 

Maybe start with Dr. Gibson because when we were talking 

about cost a little bit earlier you kind of interjected at the end that 

it wasn’t a simple answer like you needed one thing. Could you just 

name a few specific things? 

Dr. GIBSON. Yes, I mean the issue is that it’s a system, right? 

It’s a system from Sun to Earth. So, for example, I’ll start at the 

Earth since I’ve talked a lot about the Sun. There are interactions 

between the Earth’s terrestrial atmosphere coming up against the 

space environment so that the regular terrestrial weather and 

space weather can interact in ways that are hard to predict. And 

so understanding that probably requires the kind of constellations 

that Jim was talking about. 

Going back to the Sun because that’s my personal love is we 

have to understand what makes these things erupt in the first 

place, right? I mean, we would like to get observations and predictions that were more than just after it happens, after the horse 

has left the barn, right? And so to do that we have to understand 

the fundamental physical process going on at the Sun, and we need 

better solar telescopes, bigger solar telescopes. And then, as I’ve 

said, trying to track things from Sun to Earth and as it hits the 

magnetosphere, so it’s—think of it as a chain, right, and think of 

it as there are gaps in our chain and we have to fill them. 

Mr. LAMB. And, Dr. Spann, could you address the smaller satellite point that you’ve touched a couple times? 

Dr. SPANN. Sure. I’d love to do that. And I think that we are understanding better how to use these very, very small satellites, and 

we’re talking about something that could fit in—that would be a 

shoebox size or maybe a couple loaves of bread stuck together. We 

are understanding how to use that capability, and with more fre-
121 

quent access to space with those very small satellites, they can provide in essence a swarm or a constellation of individual observations spread across—think of a grid, and in that way, just like on 

a grid where we kind of map topography or something like that, 

you could map different aspects of the low-Earth environment, 

geospace as we call it in terms of magnetic field, electric fields, particle populations, the temperature of those populations. All of those 

sorts of things, the densities, all the sorts of things impact our assets in space. 

So developing the capability to use these constellation of small 

satellites I think would go a long way in terms of providing a lot 

of the information that’s needed for some of the models that are ingested into NOAA and into DOD. And so, you know, a mission that 

I did not mention, which is the Geospace Dynamic Constellation 

mission is exactly that. We’re getting—that is the mission after 

IMAP, and so we’ve got this plan is really focused on providing the 

fundamental understanding, but it all has a role in terms of the applied component. 

Mr. LAMB. Thank you. 

Dr. Tobiska, could you follow up on that and just—you mentioned I think at the very beginning about—— 

Dr. TOBISKA. Yes. 

Mr. LAMB. —various businesses providing the instrumentation 

that some people talked about today. Can you just expand on that, 

please? 

Dr. TOBISKA. Sure. Let’s see. If—on a wish list for the aviation 

radiation side of it, if the U.S. carriers, the major U.S. carriers 

were carrying the radiation monitoring equipment on their aircraft 

much like they do the TAMDAR system or the—you know, the— 

that’s where the Pitot tube comes out of the plane and they measure the temperature pressure and humidity, and then that is fed 

back to the ground via iridium satellite link. That becomes part of 

the national tropospheric weather. 

Just like that, if we had the—that kind of system on the aircraft 

going over the North Pacific, North Atlantic routes, that would give 

us an—that would give air traffic management an ability to lower 

the fleet of aircraft by a couple thousand feet or send it 100 kilometers equatorward to get around major radiation areas. So that 

would be an example of a wish list. 

Mr. LAMB. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I yield the remainder. 

Mr. BABIN. Thank you. 

And I know that Dr. Jacobs may have had something to add to 

that as well. He was kind of looking askance, so I’d like to give you 

an opportunity. 

Dr. JACOBS. Thank you. So I was just—to come back to that 

question, NOAA is in charge of the operational forecasting, and 

what’s critical to that is having accurate and timely observations. 

So our concern is not just to have better, more frequent observations from different vantage points but to make sure we don’t have 

a lapse in any observing system capability. 

And also to enhance and accelerate the research side so whether 

it’s NASA or the academic universities doing the research to enhance that effort and transition that research faster into operation 
122 

so that we can make better use of it sooner would be advantageous 

to us. 

Mr. BABIN. Okay. Thank you very much. And I think this is 

going to conclude. 

Oh, yes, I want to recognize—the gentleman from Colorado 

wants to—— 

Mr. PERLMUTTER. Just thank you, panel. This is an excellent discussion. We’ve been talking about really from the Earth to the Sun 

and then outwards. There is one other component—and, Dr. Spann, 

you touched on it a little bit—which is the conductivity of the 

Earth in these charges. 

So the—I promised Mr. Barheim that I would mention the U.S. 

Geomagnetism Program through the USGS, which also deals with 

these geomagnetic storms and how the Earth conducts the energy 

from the Sun and the potential damages that may come from that. 

So just thank you to the panel, excellent discussion today. 

Mr. BABIN. And I would like to echo that as well, all very great 

information that is so critical to the advancements of our space program and also our Department of Defense and the warfighting capabilities of our nation and the valuable information that we can 

impart to our allies around the world. 

So I just want to say thank you very much to all four of you witnesses and to the Members for their valuable questions. 

The record will remain open for two weeks for additional written 

comments and written questions from the Members. 

So with that, this hearing is adjourned. 

[Whereupon, at 12:01 p.m., the Subcommittees were adjourned.] 
(123) 

Appendix I 

ANSWERS TO POST-HEARING QUESTIONS
124 

ANSWERS TO POST-HEARING QUESTIONS

Responses by Dr. Neil Jacobs 
125 

communication due to attenuation and/or severe scintillation when the broadcast signals cross the 

ionosphere. 

D. Effects on orbits due to space-weather induced drag 

Space weather conditions can significantly impact the orbital dynamics of satellites in low earth 

orbit, as changes in the density of particles in the upper atmosphere will impact a satellite's drag. 

In low earth orbit, the primary forces acting upon a satellite are Earth's gravitational pull and 

drag from Earth's atmosphere. The drag force increases with solar activity, and during a solar 

cycle's peak, satellites may have to be maneuvered as often as every two to three weeks to 

maintain their orbit. Comparatively, during periods of low solar activity, a satellite may only 

need a few orbit corrections per year to make up for atmospheric drag. Outside of operational 

costs, variations in atmospheric drag can cause errors in orbit prediction and determination. 

posing a challenge to maintain space situational awareness. 

2. How do industry, civil government agencies, and the Department of Defense 

monitor and report problems, anomalies and vulnerabilities of their assets to space 

weather events? 

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of 

Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) support anomaly 

assessments for civil government satellites, and will typically share information on spacecraft 

anomalies for public use. On the international level, many civil government agencies are 

interested in sharing information on satellite anomalies. The Coordination Group for 

Meteorological Satellites (CGMS) is the entity that globally coordinates meteorological satellite 

systems. There have been recent efforts by the CGMS to facilitate sharing anomaly data. 

Proprietary and classified information are perhaps the most significant obstacles for the 

development of a centralized and standardized satellite anomaly database. For instance, most 

commercial satellite owners consider their satellite information proprietary. However, as with 

other private sector endeavors, NOAA has successfully partnered with commercial vendors to 

acquire data and services. In addition, many satellite operators for the Department of Defense 

(DOD) manage classified assets; consequently, the DOD often considers sharing anomaly 

information an unacceptable risk to national security. 

The 2015 National Space Weather Action Plan calls for the Department of Commerce and DOD 

to create and support a satellite-anomaly database to enable secure collection and analysis of 

satellite-anomaly data related to space weather. Consequently, NOAA and partner agencies, with 

help from the private sector. arc currently exploring options for a satellite anomaly database that 

would meet the privacy standards expected by owners of proprietary and classified information. 

3. How could an anonymized database for on-orbit spacecraft and communication 

anomalies provide important information on the routine impacts of space weather 

events on space-based infrastructure? 

A comprehensive satellite anomalies database could be used to efficiently identify and diagnose 

spacecraft hardware and signaling problems, improve satellite operations, and increase space 

situational awareness. 
126 

For instance, a satellite anomalies database could be used to study and identify trends in the 

anomalous behavior of different families of satellites. The trends include seasonal groupings. 

diurnal groupings, as well as identification of anomaly types indicative of certain satellite 

component types and manufacturers. Information provided by the database can be used in the 

design phase of spacecraft to prevent the propagation of problems from one spacecraft to the 

next. 

Information from a satellite anomalies database can also be used by operations personnel to 

anticipate periods of anomalous behavior based on the proven response of an existing spacecraft 

to environmental conditions. A database would also enable robust statistical analyses of anomaly 

occurrence to develop statistical models and first-principles models of anomaly phenomena for 

improved satellite operations. 

Finally, a comprehensive database could improve space situational awareness, especially for our 

national security interests, by helping to determine whether the cause of the anomaly is likely a 

hardware defect, accidental interference, purposeful attack, or a space weather event. 

4. How can the government better leverage next generation observing platforms, such 

as cubesat constellations, and what types of important measurements can be taken, 

and at what locations, to best inform space weather forecasting units about the 

status of the space environment? 

NOAA currently utilizes an array of government-owned and operated space- based and groundbased observations in our space weather forecast operations and related research. Many of these 

data sets are available in near real-time, and come from a variety of sources, ranging from solar 

imaging satellites to ground magnetometer stations. In addition to NOAA operational assets, we 

have partnerships with domestic organizations such as the National Aeronautics and Space 

Administration (NASA), the National Science Foundation, U.S. Air Force, and the U.S. 

Geological Survey to utilize data from these agencies or their awardees to complement the 

NOAA observations. NOAA also leverages data from the Space Environment Monitor 

instrument flying on the MetOp satellite series by the Europeans to augment its space-based data 

requirements. 
127 

Responses by Dr. Jim Spann 

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 

"Surveying the Space Weather Landscape" 

Dr. Jim Spann, Chief Scientist, Heliophysics Division, Science Mission Directorate, NASA 

Question submitted by Rep. Ed Perlmutter Member, House Committee on Science Space, and 

Technology 

I. During the Subcommittee testimony numerous comments were directed at power 

grid vulnerabilities to space weather. What information do we have about space 

weather vulnerabilities of spacecraft/space hardware/space-based communication 

infrastructure? 

The space enviromnent is an important consideration for 1\ASA missions, as spacecraft are 

susceptible to the radiation in space. For example, during one space weather storm in 2003, 

satellite anomalies were reported by deep space missions and by satellites in all orbits. The 

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Space Science Mission Operation Team indicated that 

approximately 59 percent of all NASA Earth and space science missions were impacted. 

Therefore, space weather is factored into the design, launch, and operation of spacecraft 

missions. For the Chandra mission, with an instrument particularly sensitive to the radiation 

enviromnent near Earth, the space environment is a critical factor for day-to-day operations. A 

variety of automated and manual processes are used to assess space weather conditions and to 

alert the spacecraft and Mission Operations staff during high radiation events. 

2. How do industry, civil government agencies, and the Department of Defense 

monitor and report problems, anomalies and vulnerabilities of their assets to space 

weather events? 

With NASA, standard anomaly investigation practices are followed. The space weather 

enviromnent at the time of an anomaly is assessed as part of the anomaly investigation process. 

Specific monitoring and reporting vary from mission to mission. Near and long-term operational 

impacts are assessed, and adjustments can be made as needed to the mission planning guidelines 

and to on-console procedures. In addition to the resources available in the operations teams, 

outside technical experts can also be called upon to support anomaly investigation effmts. When 

adverse space weather conditions occur or are predicted, measures can be taken, such as 

activation of the high-radiation response protocol used by the Chandra mission. 

3. How could an anonymizcd database for on-orbit spacecraft and communication 

anomalies provide important information on the routine impacts of space weather 

events on space-based infrastructure? 

Ongoing research funded by NASA will improve specification and forecast models of the 

environmental conditions that cause spacecraft anomalies. An improved understanding of when 

and where anomalies occur, as could be obtained from a database, would benefit researchers 

developing numerical models by indicating the conditions of highest concern. 
128 

Enhanced understanding, through these models, could improve responses to space weather, such 

as the shutdown of components, changes in operating modes, and the reconfiguration of fault 

management logic. 

4. How can the government better leverage next generation observing platforms, such 

as cubesat constellations, and what types of important measurements can be taken, 

and at what locations, to best inform space weather forecasting units about the 

status of the space environment? 

There are several space platforms that can be leveraged to advance the understanding of the 

space environment variability that will better inform space weather forecasting entities. These 

platforms include the evolving small satellite capabilities, including CubeSats, and remote 

sensing solar observing and near-Earth space observing platforms. Constellations of small 

satellites, particularly in near-Earth region of space, can provide a network of many simultaneous 

observations of the space environment as they fly through important regions over a broad area. 

Remote ultraviolet observations of high latitude auroral zones and equatorial emissions could 

provide key insight into the dynamics of space weather. These observations of the near-earth 

region would improve the predictive capability of space weather in the regions of space where 

space weather has its greatest impact, both for spacecraft and ground systems. However, 

additional observations of the solar wind between the Sun and Earth, and new views of the solar 

surface before it rotates and faces the Earth, would also have significant impact on the current 

comprehension of how the observed solar eruptions occur and under what conditions they are 

more likely to appear. 

Effectively incorporating observations into numerical prediction models is another essential 

aspect of informing space weather forecasts. The distributed measurements obtained from the 

next generation observing platforms will need to be incorporated into models to maximize 

specification and forecast accuracy. 
129 

Responses by Dr. Sarah Gibson 

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 

"Surveying the Space Weather Landscape" 

Dr. Sarah Gibson. Senior Scientist, High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric 

Research, and Co-Chair, Committee on Solar and Space Physics, National Academy of Sciences 

Question submitted by Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson. Ranking Member. House Committee on 

Science. Space, and Technology 

l. Please describe what would be a preferred mechanism for furthering 

communication and collaboration between the government, commercial, and 

academic communities on space weather activities. 

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (hereafter: the Academies) have 

a forum known as a Roundtable, which is a core and continuing activity that provides a means 

for representatives of government, industry, private businesses, academia and other stakeholder 

groups to gather periodically in a neutral setting to identify and discuss issues of mutual concern 

on a continuing basis. 

Such a Roundtable is explicitly called for in H.R. 3086 for the purpose of bringing together 

government, industry and university community members. I think the Roundtable is an excellent 

mechanism tor this purpose for several reasons. 

First- the Academies are known and respected throughout the government, industry, and 

university communities and are the organizing body behind Decadal Surveys. This lends 

authority to the Roundtable and increases confidence across these communities that the 

discussions will be undertaken in a neutral environment and a professional manner. Second- The 

primary purpose of a Roundtable is to enhance communication and to build collaborative tics 

across the government, industry and university communities. Academies Roundtables are not 

advisory in nature, and so arc not restricted for example by Section !5 of the Federal Advisory 

Committee Act. This allows them to bring together a truly broad and representative gathering of 

the stakeholders. 

Third- although Roundtable meetings arc open to the public and announced in advance, a 

meeting, or some portion of it, may be closed to the public if the Office of General Counsel 

determines that it will disclose matters described in section 552(b) of Title 5, United States code. 

This means that they enable a ''safe space" where privikged/~:onfidential issues may be discussed 

between government, industry, and academia, thus enabling comprehensive communication and 

knowledge transfer between these groups. 
130 

2. Please provide examples of space weather events that are less hazardous than a 

coronal mass ejection coming towards earth but still disruptive. 

Space weather, like terrestrial weather, ranges from mild to severe. CMEs that are intrinsically 

weaker or for example hit the Earth with a glancing blow have less of a space-weather 

manifestation at the Earth than a strong, Earth-directed CME. Recurring streams of fast solar 

wind may hit the Earth even during periods of low CME activity, increasing geomagnetic/auroral 

activity and substantially elevating the flux of relativistic electrons in the Earth's outer radiation 

belt (see, e.g., Gibson et aL, 2009, If the sun is so quiet, why is the earth still ringing?, Journal of 

Geophysical Research, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley .com/doi/absll 0.1 029/2009JAO I 4342). 

Even relatively minor space weather can cause significant impacts (my thanks to Prof. Mike 

Hapgood, RAL Space, U.K., and Prof. Delores Knipp, Univ. Colorado, for the following 

examples). 

1). There is evidence that minor geomagnetic activity can cause small, but economically 

significant, disturbances in the flow and delivery of electric power. For example: 

• US insurance claims related to problems with industrial electrical equipment have 

been shown to increase during periods of space weather activity (Schrijver, C. J ., 

R. Dobbins, W. Murtagh, and S.M. Petrinec (2014), Assessing the impact of 

space weather on the electric power grid based on insurance claims for industrial 

electrical equipment, Space Weather, 12,487-498, doi: 

10.1 002/2014SWOOI 066.) 

• Fluctuations in the reliability and market performance of electricity grids appear 

to be influenced by space weather, e.g. as demonstrated by a recent economic 

study of the electricity market in England and Wales (Forbes, K. F., & St. Cyr, 0. 

C. (20 17). The challenge posed by geomagnetic activity to electric power 

reliability: Evidence from England and Wales. Space Weather, 15, 1413-1430. 

https://doi.org/1 0.1002/20 17SW001668). 

2). The resource exploration/extraction sector (e.g. oil and gas) is a big customer for 

everyday space weather services in Europe, especially when working out at sea. They 

need geomagnetic information, for example information on when geomagnetic variations 

will challenge control of the orientation of drill heads, as they use magnetometers to 

determine drill head attitude with respect to the background geomagnetic field. They also 

need to know about ionospheric effects that will challenge use of Global Navigation 

Satellite System (GNSS; includes GPS) for precise positioning, e.g. to know when to 

disconnect the drill on a floating (deep-water) rig. 

• In a study of Low Earth Orbiting satellite data from 2007 to 20 II Yue et al. 

(2016) found ongoing issues with GNSS signal cycle slip even during mild space 

weather conditions. The existence of signal cycle slip can significantly influence 

the data quality and reduce the utility of GNSS in navigation and surveying, such 

as the GNSS-bascd real-time kinematic. precise point positioning and calculation 

of important quantities that assess the state of the ionosphere. (Yue, X., W. S. 

Schreiner, N. M. Pedatella, andY-H. Kuo (2016), Characterizing GPS radio 
131 

occultation loss oflock due to ionospheric weather. Space Weather, 14. 285-299, 

doi: 10.1002/2015SWOOI340.) 

The Swarm satellites between December 2013 and November 2015 encountered a 

range of GNSS signal loss related to mild-to-severe space-weather conditions 

(Xiong et aL 2016, The Swarm satellite loss ofGPS signal and its relation to 

ionospheric plasma irregularities, Space Weather. 14, 563; 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wilcy.com/doi/full/1 0.1002/20 l6SWOO 1439) 

3 ). Space weather in the form of atmospheric radiation may lead to single event effects 

(SEEs) that disrupt electronic devices. Examples of the potentially devastating impact of 

SEEs include: 

• In 2008, a control system malfunction caused abrupt changes in the attitude of an 

Australian aircraft, leading to serious injuries to II passengers and one crew 

member. The precise cause of the malfunction was never established but the 

ot1icial report (reference below) stressed the importance of ensuring that aircraft 

systems deal robustly with such malfunctions, including SEEs. (Australian 

Transport Safety Bureau. 2011. In-flight upset, 154 km west of Learmonth, 

Western Australia, 7 October 2008, VI-1-QPA, Airbus A330-303. Report 

A0-2008-070. ISBN 978-1-74251-231-0). 

• A spate of problems with solid-state power controller systems on electric trains 

occurred in the 1990s - interpreted as due to a single event effect whereby one 

charged particle could trigger a cascade that prematurely destroyed the device. 

This was fixed by better engineering to prevent cascade, and is a good example of 

why awareness is needed. (Normand, E. 1997. Neutron-induced single event 

burnout in high voltage electronics. IEEE Trans. Nucl. Sci. 44:2358-2366. doi: 

I 0.11 09/23.659062). 

• Another example is an error in a voting machine, in Belgium in 2003. where a bit 

flip added 4096 votes to one candidate (in a local election so a big addition). 

(PourEVA, 2003. Le Ministre DEWAEL reconnait Ia faillibilite du vote 

electronique grace a un rayon cosmique complice! 

http://www.poureva.be/article.php3?id article=36 ). 

4 ). Lohmeyer et. al (20 15) performed a statistical analysis of data(> half a million hours 

of satellite telemetry) from a geosynchronous communications satellite to determine why 

high-power amplifiers failed during what seemed like nonnal operations. The authors 

also used concurrent space weather data from NOAA satellites to see what was 

happening in the high-energy electron environment at geosynchronous orbit just before 

26 different amplifier anomalies that occurred over 16 years. The authors identified how 

increased electron tluence, built up over many days, often after the onset of high speed 

solar wind flows, heightens the likelihood of anomalies. (Lohmeyer, W .. A. Carlton. F. 

Wong, M. Bodcau. A. Kennedy, and K. Cahoy (20 15), Response of geostationary 

communications satellite solid-state power amplifiers to high-energy electron flucnce. 

Space Weather, 13,298-315. doi: 10.1002/2014SWOOI147.) 
132 

5). Recently (November 20 15), solar radio interference led to a one to two hour shutdown 

of air traffic control in Southern Sweden. It is possible that the configuration of the radar 

systems in Sweden made it vulnerable to solar interference resulting in the shut-down 

of Swedish airspace with knock-on effects to other countries with flights crossing 

Sweden. 

3. The National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan lay out the 

observations and data necessary to establish a "minimally adequate" observational 

capability for space weather research and forecasting. However if the nation and the 

international community are to go beyond a minimally adequate capability, what 

observational systems would you see as being critical additions or enhancements to 

the baseline set? 

Clearly it is essential that we do not lose the capability we currently have for forecasting space 

weather. The examples of the white light coronagraph for observing CMEs as they erupt 

towards the Earth, and the upstream solar wind measurements providing near-real-time warning 

represent single-point-failure risks that would devastate this current capability. Thus, establishing 

a clear baseline level for operational needs is a good and valid goal of the Space Weather 

Strategy. 

However, our current capabilities are simply not good enough, and it is essential that this 

baseline is not interpreted such that, once achieved, space-weather operational needs are 

considered fulfilled. A few additional measurements/augmentations are mentioned in the Space 

Weather Action Plan beyond the coronagraph and up-stream measurements (5.3.3- 5.3.8 in the 

Action Plan), however, again these seek to obtain a minimal set based on current operational 

strategies. 

A clearly beneficial addition to this baseline set would be observations off the Sun-Earth line. 

Measurements of the Sun's magnetic fields represent a boundary condition on all space-weather 

operational models. Currently, we only see part of this boundary since we only have one 

viewing angle on it. Coronagraphic and heliosphcric imaging of CMEs as they erupt are also 

limited by the fact that Earth-directed eruptions are seen ·'head-on", so that we miss details of 

their structure and evolution that would improve forecasts. Observations of solar surface 

magnetic fields, and from white-light coronagraph and heliospheric imagers from the quadrature, 

or ''L5 .. point, would provide critical new space-weather operational inputs. 

Even more beneficial would be the same measurements obtained from a solar-polar vantage. In 

this case, a CME could be observed moving from Sun to Earth from above. and interactions 

between the CME and the solar wind it ploughs through could be uniquely monitored. 

Moreover, from this vantage space weather could be monitored not just for the Earth. but for all 

the planets and spacecraft in the heliosphcre. This is a key capability for protecting our space 

exploration assets, including. most importantly, future human travellers to Mars. Note that a 

single mission (which could be a constellation of satellites with Sun-Earth line ground- and 

space-based support) could provide both polar and quadrature coverage. (See, e.g., Gibson et al., 

Solar physics from unconventional viewpoints, Submitted to Frontiers in Astronomy and Space 

Sciences, May, 2018, https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.09452) 
133 

In addition. the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan emphasize the importance of 

transitioning Research to Operations. For this to move forward effectively, observations 

designed to answer outstanding research questions must be obtained. For example. fundamental 

research using recent or near-term assets such as NASA's Van Allen Probes that observe the 

Earth's radiation belts, or the NSF's Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope that will observe the solar 

magnetic fields with ultra-high resolution, can inform future requirements for operational 

space-weather observations. 

Beyond this, the Decadal Survey provides guidance on the prioritization for future observations 

-- driven by fundamental research questions but with potential for transformative enhancement to 

space-weather operational capability. For example, the Geospace Dynamic Connections 

mission--which is the next NASA mission prioritized after the Interstellar Mapping and 

Acceleration Probe and which may be undertaken via a constellation of small satellites--would 

enhance our fundamental understanding of the Earth's space environment. On the ground-based 

side, the Coronal Solar Magnetic Observatory (COSMO) and Frequency Agile Solar Radio 

telescope (FASR) represents means of establishing once and for all the magnetic properties of 

the CME as it leaves the Sun. 
134 

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 

"Surveying the Space Weather Landscape" 

Dr. Sarah Gibson, Senior Scientist, High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric 

Research, and Co-Chair, Committee on Solar and Space Physics. National Academy of Sciences 

Question submitted by Rep. Ed Perlmutter. Member, House Committee on Science. Space, and 

Technology 

1. During the Subcommittee testimony numerous comments were directed at power 

grid vulnerabilities to space weather. What information do we have about space 

weather vulnerabilities of spacecraft/space hardware/space-based communication 

infrastructure? 

We generally have less information about spacecraft vulnerabilities than we have about power 

grid concerns. Green et al. (2017) note that ·' ... space weather effects on satellites have been well 

demonstrated by compilations and analysis of previous anomalies" but that, ·'up-to-date and 

routine assessments of the most recent anomalies, their relationship to space weather, and impact 

to the industry are not readily available." 

The situation in space is difficult to assess for several reasons. 

First, spacecraft operate in a multitude of environments, including low earth orbit (inside of the 

Earth's tenuous upper atmosphere); geosynchronous orbit (above the atmosphere, but inside of 

Earth protective magnetic field); and interplanetary space (within the Sun's atmosphere, but 

beyond Earth's protection) 1

• These different environments present very different operating 

conditions that can change drastically in only a few seconds during the onset of a solar or 

geomagnetic storm. While this diversity is well understood by experts, it can sometimes be a 

challenge to communicate, potentially resulting in oversimplification or even misunderstanding 

of satellite risks and vulnerabilities by space-weather customers and the general public. 

Second. issues with satellite infrastructure relating to defense/security operations are generally 

not reported in the open literature. Similarly, commercial satellite operators may not wish to 

publicize every satellite issue for various economic reasons. 

Third, there is significant challenge in separating spacecraft hardware vulnerabilities from 

vulnerabilities associated with communication environment; that is, the radio signals that support 

satellite telemetry and communication are also subject to space weather effects. 

Fourth, solar activity varies over the solar cycle, and solar cycles can be more or less active. The 

past decade has seen particularly low activity. It is therefore difficult to determine whether 

decrease in satellite failures arises from improved infrastructure and engineering, or if it is due to 

the milder space environment of recent years. 

1 A fourth environment is interstellar space, which e.g. the Voyager I spacecraft has reached 
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Finally, rapid development of small- and cubesat constellations is pushing satellite infrastructure 

into uncharted territory. and in general technology is continuously evolving and increasing in 

complexity. This makes it unclear how observations gathered to date inform future 

vulnerabilities. 

2. How do industry, civil government agencies, and the Department of Defense 

monitor and report problems, anomalies and vulnerabilities of their assets to space 

weather events? 

Some information is publicly available, in particular from civil space agencies. For example, as 

mentioned in my response to Rep. Johnson's Question 2 above, Xiong et al. (2016) analyzed 

GPS signal losses reported by the European Space Agency's Swarm mission. 

Commercial satellite operators do occasionally make data available to individual researchers; for 

example, Inmarsat made 16 years of proprietary telemetry data available for study (see 

Lohmeyer and Cahoy (20 13), Space weather radiation effects on geostationary satellite 

solid-state power amplifiers, Space Weather, 11, 476--488, doi: 10.1 002/swe.20071 ). 

Similarly, some DOD data have been made available: 16 years of GPS particle detector data was 

made available in 2017 under the terms of the Executive Order for Coordinating Efforts to 

Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events (See Morley, S. K., J.P. Sullivan, M. R. Carver, R. 

M. Kippen, R. H. W. Friedel, G. D. Reeves, and M.G. Henderson (2017), Energetic Particle 

Data From the Global Positioning System Constellation, Space Weather, 15, 283-289, doi: 

10.1002/2017SW001604. Also see Knipp, D. J., and B. L. Giles (2016), Global Positioning 

System energetic particle data: The next space weather data revolution, Space Weather. 14, 526-

527, doi: 10.1002/2016SW001483.) 

Anomaly reports and spacecraft position reports relating to satellite drag and collision avoidance 

are generally not available. 

Thus, as Green eta!. (20 17) state, ''Despite the value of shared anomaly information .... no public 

centralized reporting system and database exists. Some anomaly information is tracked in private 

databases kept by manufacturers or insurance companies such as that of the Atrium Science 

Consortium database." Other public databases exist that are, however, decades old. Information 

has been shared via in-person meetings, but is limited by who agrees to participate. 

3. How could an anonymized database for on-orbit spacecraft and communication 

anomalies provide important information on the routine impacts of space weather 

events on space-based infrastructure? 

The fact is that space-weather observations are grossly under-sampled by the standards of 

terrestrial weather. This is only compounded by the lack of free access to what observations do 

exist An anonymous database could facilitate comprehensive representation of civil, commercial 

and DOD assets. 
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Again, quoting Green et al. (20 17): "A mechanism is needed to ensure that anomaly occurrences 

are shared between operators who monitor problems and manufacturers who can feed that 

information back into better design. While exchanges may take place after significant failures, 

the information sharing should be extended to include smaller nuisance problems so that all 

problems are recognized allowing better statistical correlations with space weather." 

4. How can the government better leverage next generation observing platforms, such 

as cubesat constellations, and what types of important measurements can be taken, 

and at what locations, to best inform space weather forecasting units about the 

status of the space environment? 

Please see my response to Rep. Johnson's Question #3. 

[My thanks again to Profs. Knipp and Hapgood for assistance with this response. Also please see 

Green et al., (20 17), Impact of space weather on the satellite industry, Space Weather, 15, 804-

818. doi: 10.1002/2017SWOOI646.] 
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Responses by Dr. W. Kent Tobiska 

HOUSE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 

"Surveying the Space Weather Landscape" 

Dr. W. Kent Tobiska, President and Chief Scientist, Space Environment Technologies 

Question submitted by Representative Ed Perlmutter, House Committee on Science, Space, and 

Technology 

1. During the Subcommittee testimony numerous comments were directed at power 

grid vulnerabilities to space weather. What information do we have about space 

weather vulnerabilities of spacecraft/space hardware/space-based communication 

infrastructure'? 

Typically, communication with spacecraft can occur using a wide range of radio frequency 

bands. The frequency band depends upon which system is installed by the spacecraft 

manufacturer. Some frequency bands are susceptible to space weather and others are not. For 

example, systems using high frequency communications (HF: 3··30 MHz frequency or I 0· 

l 00 m wavelength) may include cubesats and some suborbital commercial space vehicles 

(balloons, aircraft-type vehicles); these assets could experience major outages during strong 

solar flares when the vehicle is in the dayside of Earth (durations of minutes to a few hours) 

or during major geomagnetic storms at any time day/night (durations up tens of minutes up to 

a few days) when HF signals are scattered or blocked in the ionosphere. 

Systems using ultra high frequency communications (UHF: 300--3000 MHz frequency or 

100--1000 mm wavelength) and L-band (0.39-1.55 GHz frequency or 193·-769 mm 

wavelength) may include commanding channels for GEO commercial and DoD 

communications satellites, GOES weather satellites, LEO (Iridium), deep space vehicles, and 

all GPS Ll (single frequency) downlink channels; these assets could experience outages or 

dropped packets during disturbed geomagnetic activity due to scintillation when signals are 

delayed in the ionosphere. 

Higher frequency frequency communications (shorter wavelength) bands (S, K, Ka, Ku, X: 

> 1.55 GHz frequency or <193 mm wavelength) in the microwave bands are typically not 

susceptible to space weather. Optical communication bands such as infrared (IR: 0.76 .. 1.0 

mm wavelength) arc not affected by space weather but can be affected by absorption from 

molecular species in the atmosphere (water, H20; carbon dioxide, C02; ozone, 03); these 

are typically not used for surface-to-space communications. 
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2. How do industry, civil government agencies, and the Department of Defense 

monitor and report problems, anomalies and vulnerabilities of their assets to space 

weather events? 

DoD agencies have relied upon The Aerospace Corporation to monitor and track their own 

spacecraft anomalies; these are usually not disclosed except within the particular agency. 

However, Aerospace Corporation has published a generalized assessment of spacecraft 

anomalies from historical missions. Their 1985 studies list the environment as a failure cause 

in spacecraft electronic subsystems 21% of the time with other significant categories being 

design, parts, operations, and unknown. Of the environment, surface and internal charging 

are the dominant anomaly mechanisms. 

There is not a readily available listing of satellite anomalies from the commercial sector since 

competitors could link specific problems to economic impacts. There has been considerable 

discussion in the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) workshops to 

attempt the construction of such a list using an anonymous satellite database hosted by a 

trusted third party. 

In lieu of anomaly databases, satellite manufacturers and operators typically use well-vetted 

engineering models to empirically characterize the lessons learned and avoid hazardous 

processes where possible. In addition, NOAA. NASA, and commercial service providers 

make available to various industries watches, alert, and warnings of hazardous space 

weather, ranging trom general conditions to specific applications. 

3. How could an anonymized database for on-orbit spacecraft and communication 

anomalies provide important information on the routine impacts of space weather 

events on space-based infrastructure'? 

This type of database would be extremely valuable for both satellite manufacturers as well as 

satellite operators. Manufacturers would have a useful reference database against which to 

design quality systems using materials and electrical processes that are able to manage the 

space weather hazard risk. Operational users could manage on-orbit and/or launch systems to 

avoid outage, quality, or even catastrophic loss hazards ti-om space weather events. Even the 

research and research-to-operations developers would find such a database highly useful to 

help guide and optimize the evolution of their products and services. 
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4. How can the government better leverage next generation observing platforms, such 

as cubesat constellations, and what types of important measurements can be taken, 

and at what locations, to best inform space weather forecasting units about the 

status of the space environment? 

Having a monitoring capability in deep space, between the Sun and Earth off of the SunEarth line, either in the ecliptic or out of it, is the highest priority for deploying observing 

platfonns as defined by most participants in the national space weather enterprise. This 

monitoring is needed to capture the evolution of coronal mass ejection (CME) material, 

including its directionality and its speed. In addition, monitoring from LEO orbits, within 

neutral atmosphere and ionosphere, as well as from the MEO orbits, within the radiation belts 

and inner magnetosphere, are on a ptiority list for obtaining more detailed spatial and 

temporal observations to characterize and eventually forecast space weather processes and 

effects. These locations of observations are particularly needed to feed the physics-based, 

data assimilative models now being developed. This monitoring would lead to significantly 

improved risk reduction for systems affected by ionospheric scintillation, neutral atmosphere 

density-related drag, the effects of geomagnetic stonns related to the timing and magnitude 

of power grid susceptibility and the radiation environment at aircraft altitudes. It should be 

noted that cubesats, while much less expensive to build and operate, often provide a much 

greater spatial and temporal monitoring capacity. Within the atmosphere, long-term 

stratospheric balloons, high-altitude, long-duration UAVs, and even instrumented 

commercial aircraft can be used as inexpensive monitoring platfonns for specific domains 

related space weather. Ground-based systems continue to be important, including neutron 

monitors that can provide a wealth of information related to galactic cosmic rays and even 

the state of variability in the magnetosphere for a long-term cost that is negligible compared 

to the cost of a comparable satellite system.