Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

March 2017

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Gulf of Maine Region

March 2017

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

htp://ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=6AABE50C-1

 Gulf of Maine Signifcant Events - December 2016–February 2017

Precipitation Sea Surface Temperatures

Regional Climate Overview - December 2016–February 2017

Winter sea surface temperature anomalies 

in the Gulf of Maine were warmer than 

average over most of the region (except the 

eastern Minas basin and some Gulf Streaminfuenced regions outside the Gulf of Maine). 

Temperatures over coastal areas of eastern 

Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova Scota were 

0.5°C (0.9°F) to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average. Of 

the coast of western Maine, Massachusets, 

and in Wilkinson basin, temperatures were 

2.0°C (3.6°F) above average. Temperatures 

were 0.5°C (0.9°F) to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above 

average over Jordan basin, in the central 

Gulf of Maine, and Scotan Shelf. There was a 

general trend of warmer anomalies in western 

portons of the central Gulf of Maine. These 

warm anomalies contnue a region-wide warm 

surface ocean period that began in September 

2015. 

Winter temperatures (average of December–

February) were 1°–3°C (2°–5°F) above normal. 

December temperatures ranged from 2°C (4°F) 

below normal to 2°C (4°F) above normal, with 

most areas within 1°C (2°F) of normal. January

temperatures were 1°–5°C (2°–9°F) above 

normal. January’s warmth contributed to the St. 

John River at Fredericton, NB, having its latest 

freeze-up (since 1825) on February 2, 2017. In 

2016, the river had its second earliest ice break 

up (Feb. 20), resultng in the longest open water 

season (348 days) in more than 190 years. 

February temperatures were 1°–3°C (2°–5°F) 

above normal. From February 23–26, more than 

60 max temperature records were set, with some 

sites setng records three days in a row. With 

highs near 20°C (68°F), Boston, MA; Concord, NH; 

and Greenwood, NS, had their warmest February 

day on record on the 24th or 25th.

Sea surface temperature anomalies based on 1985–2017. 

Mean SST anomalies from NOAA AVHRR data. Credit: 

University of Maine School of Marine Sciences and NERACOOS

Temperature

Winter precipitaton (accumulated from 

December–February) ranged from 75% of 

normal in parts of eastern Massachusets to 

150% of normal in portons of Maine, with 

most areas seeing near to above-normal 

precipitaton. December precipitaton 

ranged from 50% of normal in southeastern 

Massachusets, southern New Brunswick, and 

northern Nova Scota to 150% of normal in the 

western half of Maine. January precipitaton 

ranged from 50% of normal in central and 

southern New Hampshire to 200% of normal 

in central Maine. In February, precipitaton 

ranged from 50% of normal in Cape Cod, MA 

and northwestern New Brunswick to 175% of 

normal in parts of Maine.

Departure from Normal

Temp and precip normals based on 1981–2010 data.

Departure from Normal Percent of Normal

A powerful storm brought mixed precipitaton and wind 

gusts of up to 158 km/h (98 mph) to the region from 

December 29–31. Thundersnow was reported in parts of 

New England. Snowfall rates were up to 15 cm (6 in.) per 

hour. The greatest snow totals of up to 69 cm (27 in.) were 

reported in Maine, where more than 100,000 customers 

lost power. The weight of the snow caused an air-supported 

indoor practce dome at the University of Maine to collapse. 

More than 45,000 customers lost power in the Maritmes. 

Strong winds and storm surge washed up a large number of 

lobsters, crabs, and clams on the beach in Val-Comeau, NB.

A major ice storm afected 

the region, especially the 

Maritmes, in late January.

Drought conditons lingered but slowly improved during winter in New England 

and parts of the Maritmes. By early January, extreme drought had eased in eastern 

Massachusets and New Hampshire. By late January, severe drought had eased 

in eastern Massachusets and Maine, while moderate drought had eased in New 

Brunswick and much of Nova Scota. Conditons contnued to improve in Maine 

during February. See Impacts secton for more details.

Three blizzards afected the region in February. The frst storm brought up to 61 cm 

(24 in.) of snow and wind gusts of up to 113 km/h (70 mph) from February 9–10. 

Blizzard conditons occurred for several hours in eastern Massachusets and southern 

New Brunswick. Snowfall rates of 5–8 cm (2–3 in.) per hour were reported in New 

England, as was thundersnow. The second storm brought up to 102 cm (40 in.) of 

snow and wind gusts of up to 146 km/h (91 mph) from February 12–14. There was 

at least one locaton in every Maine county that saw at least 61 cm (24 in.) of snow. 

Blizzard conditons occurred in Nova Scota and southeastern New Brunswick for 6–10 

hours. All public roads in central and southern New Brunswick were restricted to 

emergency vehicles only. Plowing operatons in portons of New Brunswick and Maine 

were temporarily suspended due to poor conditons. More than 100,000 customers 

lost power in the region. From February 15–16, the third storm brought up to 60 

cm (24 in.) of snow and wind gusts of up to 80 km/h (50 mph). Blizzard conditons 

occurred in parts of New Brunswick for 6–9 hours. On February 16, Andover, ME, 

had 201 cm (79 in.), or 2 m (6.6 f.), of snow on the ground, which was the second 

greatest one-day snow depth on record for Maine. Due to the storms, February 

snowfall totaled over 1 m (3 f.) for many areas in the three provinces and Maine. 

A major ice storm brought mixed precipitaton and wind gusts of more than 100 

km/h (62 mph) from January 24–26. Southern New Brunswick experienced 6–12 

hours of freezing rain. Northern New Brunswick experienced a prolonged freezing 

rain event, with some coastal areas reportng 24–30 hours of freezing rain and up to 

50 mm (2 in.) of ice accumulaton. See Impacts secton for details.

Drought conditons lingered but slowly 

eased during winter in the region.

Warm January temperatures led to a 

record-late freeze-up of the St. John 

River at Fredericton, NB. A warmup 

in late February set numerous high 

temperature records.

Three storms in a row brought heavy snow 

and blizzard conditons to parts of the region 

in February.
Regional Impacts - December 2016–February 2017

Regional Outlook - Spring 2017 Gulf of Maine Region Partners

Environment and Climate Change Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

NOAA Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

Northeast River Forecast Center

www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Regional Climate Services

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/rcsd

Gulf of Maine Research Insttute

www.gmri.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton System 

www.drought.gov

Cooperatve Insttute for the North Atlantc Region

www.cinar.org

Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment, Climate 

Network

www.gulfofmaine.org/climatenetwork

Northeastern Regional Associaton of Coastal and Ocean 

Systems

www.neracoos.org

University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences

www.umaine.edu/marine

Contacts

NOAA:

Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Samantha Borisof (samantha.borisof@cornell.edu)

Environment and Climate Change Canada:

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

819-997-2800 (long-distance charges apply)

ec.enviroinfo.ec@canada.ca

To receive this publicaton every quarter, sign up at htp://

www.gulfofmaine.org/2/climate-network-climate-outlook.

Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

March 2017 

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

htp://ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=6AABE50C-1

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature and 

Precipitation

For March–May, Environment and Climate 

Change Canada (ECCC) and NOAA’s Climate 

Predicton Center (CPC) are both calling for an 

increased chance of above-normal temperatures. 

CPC calls for equal chances of below-, near-, 

or above-normal precipitaton, while ECCC 

calls for an increased chance of above-normal 

precipitaton for parts of the Maritmes.

Probability of above-normal (A)

Environment and Climate Change Canada map (above lef) 

produced on February 28. NOAA’s Climate Predicton Center 

map (above right) produced on February 16.

ENSO

In February, sea surface temperatures in the 

equatorial Pacifc Ocean and atmospheric 

conditons indicated ENSO-neutral conditons 

were present. NOAA’s Climate Predicton 

Center indicates there is around a 60% chance 

that ENSO-neutral conditons will contnue 

through spring. Afer that, the chances of El 

Niño increase to around 50% by autumn.

40

Above: February 2017 North American 

Drought Monitor. 

Drought

Streamfow on New England’s waterways was near to below normal in December and near to above normal 

in January and February. Streamfow also returned to near to above normal in the Maritmes. Groundwater 

and reservoir levels increased slowly during winter, returning to near normal in some areas, but remaining 

below normal in other areas. For instance, the Emergency Declaraton issued for Ipswich, MA, in midSeptember due to a water supply shortage was terminated on January 26 because the town’s water supply 

had recharged. However, the Massachusets Water Resources Authority contnued to urge its customers to 

conserve water as the Quabbin Reservoir hovered just below normal capacity since mid-November.

A

Drought

The U.S. Drought Outlook

for March 16–June 30, 

2017 indicates that drought 

conditons are expected to 

ease in Maine and eastern 

Massachusets. Drought 

conditons are expected 

to remain but improve for 

much of southern New 

Hampshire.

January 24–26 Ice Storm

A major ice storm afected the region in late January. Up to 50 mm (2 in.) of ice accumulated in New 

Brunswick, downing trees, poles, and wires. NB Power estmated up to 400 power poles were brought down

and in need of replacement. More than 200,000 NB Power customers lost power, surpassing Hurricane 

Arthur in 2014 to become the worst crisis in NB Power history. Some customers were without power for up 

to 12 days. Residents of Port Elgin and Miramichi were asked to conserve water untl power was restored to 

the communites’ pumps, while water and food supplies ran low in Tracadie. Gas statons with power had 

long lines, with some running out of gas. Two died and 45 people were hospitalized for carbon monoxide 

poisoning. Several communites declared a state of emergency and the military provided assistance. About 

12,000 customers in Nova Scota and 1,600 Maritme Electric customers in PEI lost power. In New England, 

wind gusts of up to 100 km/h (62 mph) and rough seas caused coastal fooding and beach erosion. Caribou, 

ME received 106.7 mm (4.2 in.) of sleet. The Natonal Weather Service said, “It was likely one of the biggest 

sleet storms in northern Maine during the past 75 years.” At least 4,500 customers lost power in Maine.

Spring Flood Potential

With near to below-normal 

precipitaton this winter, the 

food threat during spring is low 

in southern New Hampshire 

and Massachusets. For much 

of Maine and northern New 

Hampshire, minor fooding 

is possible due to a deep 

snowpack and extensive river 

ice. Very heavy rain can cause 

fooding at any tme of the year, 

even in areas experiencing 

drought or that have litle to no 

snow on the ground.

Seasonal Snowfall

December snowfall ranged from near normal to more than 200% of normal, except in eastern 

Massachusets, which saw less. In a news report, the Natonal Weather Service estmated that “most roofs in 

northern and central Maine have 60–90% of the total weight they are designed to handle...”, which is more 

typical of late February. In January, snowfall ranged from less than 25% of normal to near normal, except in 

Cape Cod, which saw more. In February, snowfall ranged from near normal to more than 200% of normal, 

except in northern New Brunswick, which saw less. The snowfall boosted business for Maine ski resorts. 

Winter snowfall (accumulated from December–February) ranged from 75%–200% of normal. 

Above: Ice on a pole near Miramichi, NB. 

(Credit: Rick Fleetwood). Below: Winter 

snowfall percent of normal map.