Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|December 2015

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Eastern Region

December 2015

National - Signifcant Events for September–November 2015

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies 

Regional - Climate Overview for September–November 2015

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

September 1–November 30, 2015

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

September 1–November 30, 2015

U.S. Drought Monitor

December 17, 2015

September

October

Highlights for the East

Extreme rainfall and record fooding occurred in 

South Carolina and parts of North Carolina in early 

October. Up to 27 inches of rain was reported in a 

fve day period. Columbia, SC and Charleston, SC 

each had their all-tme wetest 1-day, 2-day, and 

3-day periods on record. In just the frst three days, 

October 2015 became Charleston's wetest October 

and one of its all-tme wetest months. Damage 

costs were estmated to be over a billion dollars 

in South Carolina and around $31 million in North 

Carolina. Less extreme fooding from rainfall was 

reported in other parts of the region. In additon, 

several straight days of strong onshore winds, 

large waves, and elevated tdes along the Eastern 

Seaboard resulted in coastal fooding and moderate 

to severe beach erosion. The high tdes exacerbated 

fooding from the heavy rain. See the Impacts 

secton for more details. 

South Carolina had a record-wet October and 

autumn, while several sites in the Carolinas were 

record-wet in November and also for autumn.

Connectcut, Maine, Massachusets, and Rhode 

Island had a record-warm September, as did seven 

Northeast cites. In November, New Jersey was 

record-warm, along with three Northeast cites. Five 

cites had a record-warm autumn.

Dry conditons contnued in the Carolinas 

and expanded in the Northeast during 

September. In late September, the USDA 

declared numerous countes across the region 

as disaster areas due to drought. Various crops 

were smaller in size due to lack of water, while 

falling water levels in reservoirs and wells led 

to water restrictons. The early October rainfall 

erased almost all dryness in the Carolinas and 

helped ease dry conditons in the Northeast. 

During the rest of autumn, the main storm 

track was over the Carolinas, keeping that area 

wet, while the rest of the region generally saw 

near to below-normal precipitaton. Dryness 

lingered in the Northeast through December. 

September precipitaton was 115% of normal 

for the Eastern Region, with state amounts 

ranging from 81% to 142% of normal. The 

early-October deluge caused South Carolina 

to have a record-wet October (at 348% of 

normal) and the region to end the month at 

136% of normal. Twelve states saw less than 

75% of normal precipitaton in November, but 

the Carolinas ranked the month among their 

top four wetest. Overall, the region saw 95% 

of normal. Autumn precipitaton was near 

to below normal for thirteen states, with the 

region seeing 115% of normal. South Carolina 

was record-wet, while North Carolina had its 

second wetest autumn.

The Eastern Region had its third warmest 

September on record at 3.8°F above normal. 

Four states were record warm, and fve others 

ranked this September among their top 

three warmest. The region's October average 

temperature was exactly normal, with most 

states within 1°F of normal. At 4.2°F above 

normal, the region had its third warmest 

November. New Jersey was record-warm, and 

eight additonal states ranked this November 

among their top fve warmest. With the mild 

September and warm November, autumn 

ranked as third warmest for the region at 2.6°F 

above normal. Eleven states had a top fve 

warm autumn.

Drought in the East

Normals based on 1981–2010

The contguous United States was record warm during autumn. The average temperature of 56.2°F was 

3.3°F above the 20th century average. The U.S. had its second warmest September on record with an 

average temperature of 68.5°F, 3.7°F above average. The average temperature for October was 57.4°F, 

3.3°F above average, which was fourth warmest. November's average temperature of 44.7°F, 3.0°F 

above average, was 13th warmest. Autumn contguous U.S. precipitaton was 8.32 inches, 1.44 inches 

above the 20th century average, making it the 15th wetest on record. September precipitaton was 

2.09 inches, 0.40 inches below average, while October precipitaton was 2.75 inches, 0.59 inches above 

average. November precipitaton was 3.30 inches, 1.07 inches above average, which was fourth wetest. 
Regional - Impacts and Updates for September–November 2015

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisof (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|December 2015 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Winter 2015–16 Eastern Region Partners

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Ofces, Atlantc

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Ofce for Coastal Management

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov

NOAA Research, Climate Program Ofce and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.research.noaa.gov

NOAA Natonal Sea Grant Ofce

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantc, South Atlantc, and Great

Lakes Regional Collaboraton Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Southeast Regional Climate Center

www.sercc.com

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton

System

www.drought.gov

Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments

www.cisa.sc.edu

Consortum on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperatve Insttute for North Atlantc Research

www.cinar.org

Eastern Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Precipitation and 

Temperature

A

Valid for January–March 2016

A: Above-normal

B: Below- normal

EC: Equal chances of 

above-, near, or belownormal 

#: Probability of aboveor below-normal

The Climate 

Predicton Center 

is forecastng an 

increased chance 

of above-normal temperatures for January–

March for the Northeast, Ohio, and most of 

Virginia. Equal chances of above-, near-, or 

below-normal temperatures were for the 

Carolinas.

An increased chance of below-normal 

precipitaton is forecast for the Ohio Valley from 

January–March, 

while an increased 

chance of abovenormal precipitaton 

is forecast for 

coastal areas from 

the Carolinas to 

Massachusets.

Equal chances were 

forecast elsewhere.

El Niño

Atmospheric and oceanic observatons 

through November refect a strong El Niño. 

The graph above shows warm and cold 

periods of sea surface temperatures in the 

Niño 3.4 region of the central Pacifc. When 

comparing these, this El Niño ranks as one of 

the strongest on record. El Niño conditons will 

persist into early 2016 before weakening and 

transitoning to ENSO-neutral conditons by 

late spring or early summer. 

During an El Niño winter, the Pacifc jet stream 

runs across the southern United States. This 

patern brings above-normal precipitaton 

and below-normal temperatures to southern 

parts of the Eastern Region. As storms ofen 

move up the coast during El Niño winters, 

the Eastern Seaboard generally experiences 

above-normal precipitaton. The dry winter 

conditons that characterize Ohio commonly 

extend eastward into western New York and 

Pennsylvania, with warmer temperatures 

extending into the Northeast during strong El 

Niños. For more informaton, see the Eastern 

Region El Niño Impacts and Outlook. 

A

B

33

40

EC

33

B

40

Agriculture & Forestry

Over the course of a few days, farmers in the Carolinas went from 

dealing with drought to recovering from heavy rain and fooding. 

Peanuts, coton, fall vegetables, and soybeans were severely 

impacted, with the South Carolina agriculture ofcials estmatng crop 

losses of nearly $600 million. In additon, South Carolina's forestry 

industry estmated losses of at least $65 million. 

Waterways

Seventeen South Carolina waterways had record-high water levels 

and/or stream fows, with another 15 waterways having a top 5 

greatest level or fow. Aging infrastructure contributed to the failure 

of 36 dams across the state. A breach of the Columbia Canal led to 

a boil water advisory for 375,000 of the city's water customers, with 

up to 40,000 without water service. Around 850 water rescues were 

performed in South Carolina.

Recovery

Flooding caused devastatng damage to homes, property, and businesses. 

Twenty-four South Carolina countes received a Federal Disaster 

Declaraton. As of early December, more than 90,000 South Carolina 

residents had applied for FEMA aid totaling nearly $72 million. In 

additon, the USDA designated 29 South Carolina countes and 19 North 

Carolina countes as primary natural disaster areas. 

Transportation

At the peak of the food event in South Carolina, nearly 550 statemaintained bridges and roads were closed, including several major 

interstates. Two weeks later, around 180 were stll closed, with ofcials 

predictng it could be months before all repairs are made. Railways 

were also damaged. 

A CoCoRaHS staton near Mount Pleasant, 

SC reported the greatest storm total, 

26.92 inches of rain from October 1–5.

Preliminary data shows that the Black 

River at Kingstree, SC had a record-high 

crest of 22.65 feet (records back to 1893). 

This was 10 feet above food stage and 

broke the old record by more than 3 feet. 

Warm temperatures and 

standing water afer the 

foods led to an increase 

in mosquito populatons.

South Carolina banned 

clam and oyster 

harvestng for at least 2 

weeks due to increased 

bacteria levels during 

and afer the foods. 

Beaches from New England 

to the Carolinas sufered 

erosion. North Topsail Beach, 

NC lost an estmated $15.5 

million worth of sand during 

the storm event.

A secton of Interstate 

95, the major East 

Coast route that 

connects Maine to 

Florida, was closed for 

more than a week. 

Atmospheric Conditions

A front stalled of the coast of the Carolinas, while a low pressure 

system over the Southeast tapped into moisture from the Atlantc and 

Hurricane Joaquin and directed it towards the Carolinas. The front and 

low were kept in place by high pressure to the north, which reinforced 

the strong onshore fow of moisture. The stalled front provided a focal 

point for thunderstorm development, with the storms dumping heavy 

rain on the same locatons for several days. Above-average sea surface 

temperatures may have increased the amount of moisture in the air.

South Carolina's 

tourism industry lost an 

estmated $35 million 

due to the food event.

°C °F

A

EC

50

50

33

40

50

33