Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisoff (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|December 2014

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Eastern Region

December 2014

National - Significant Events for September–November 2014

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies 

Regional - Climate Overview for September–November 2014

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

September 1–November 30, 2014

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

September 1–November 30, 2014

U.S. Drought Monitor

December 16, 2014

September

October

Highlights for the East

Severe storms in September and October produced 

15 tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, and flash 

flooding across the region. 

From October 21 to 22, a coastal low brought up to 

6 inches of rain to the Northeast. Strong winds and 

flooding accompanied the storm. The rain helped 

ease dryness in parts of New England.

A state record was set for earliest measurable 

snowfall in Pelion, SC, on November 1. Columbia, 

SC, had its earliest trace snowfall, with nearby sites 

seeing 2 to 4 inches. On the 2nd, Caribou, ME, had its 

earliest snowfall greater than 10 inches. 

A large temperature difference between Lake Erie 

and the air above it, and strong winds parallel to the 

lake, set up one of the Buffalo, NY, area's largest lake 

effect snow events in history. On November 17–21, 

up to 88 inches of snow fell, with extreme snowfall 

rates of up to 6 inches per hour. The storm resulted in 

14 deaths, major roads being shut down, thousands 

of stranded motorists, and hundreds of roof collapses. 

From November 26 to 27, a Nor'easter dropped 

up to 20 inches of snow on the Northeast, causing 

hundreds of flight delays and hazardous road 

conditions the day before Thanksgiving. More than 

300,000 customers lost power in New England. 

In early September, 10 states had areas of 

abnormal dryness. During the month, moderate 

drought was introduced in four states. In October 

and November, dryness eased in some areas but 

expanded in others. All states had areas of dryness 

sometime during those months. U.S. Geological 

Survey data showed that in September and 

October some New England waterways were at 

record or near-record low levels, with streamflows 

at 10% of normal or less. Massachusetts Energy 

and Environmental Affairs issued a Drought 

Advisory for the Cape Cod and Southeast regions, 

indicating the need for closer monitoring of water 

resources. Dryness improved in New England in 

December, but lingered elsewhere. 

The Eastern Region received 87% of normal 

precipitation during fall. Fourteen of the 

sixteen states were drier than normal, with 

Pennsylvania having its 19th driest fall. The 

region saw 72% of normal rainfall in September. 

All states but the Carolinas were drier than 

normal, with eight ranking the month among 

their top 15 driest. The region received 108% 

of normal precipitation in October. Nine states 

were wetter than normal, with four having top 

20 wettest Octobers. The region picked up 83% 

of normal precipitation in November. Ten states 

were drier than normal, but South Carolina had 

its 15th wettest November.

The Eastern Region's average fall temperature 

was 53.2°F, 0.4°F colder than normal. However, 

9 of the 16 states were warmer than normal, 

with three ranking this fall among their top 

20 warmest. The region was 0.7°F warmer 

than normal in September. Fifteen states 

saw above-normal temperatures, with two 

having top 20 warmest Septembers. October 

was 2.2°F warmer than normal. All states saw 

above-normal temperatures, with nine ranking 

the month among their top 20 warmest. This 

November was the region's 17th coldest on 

record at 4.0°F below normal. All states had 

below-normal temperatures, with five ranking 

the month among their top 20 coldest. 

The contiguous U.S.'s average temperature in autumn was 54.1°F, 0.6°F 

warmer than average. September was 1.3°F warmer than average. October 

was 3.0°F warmer than average, making it the fourth warmest October on record. November was 2.4°F 

colder than average, making it the 16th coldest November on record. The contiguous U.S.'s precipitation 

total for autumn was 7.12 inches, 0.24 inches above average. September and October were wetter than 

average at 0.09 inches above average and 0.17 inches above average, respectively. November was 0.16 

inches drier than average. The contiguous U.S. snow cover extent in November was the largest on record 

(since 1949) at 400,000 square miles above average. 

Drought in the East

Normals based on 1981–2010
Regional - Impacts for September–November 2014

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisoff (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|December 2014 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Winter 2014-15 Eastern Region Partners

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Climatic Data Center

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

National Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Offices, Atlantic

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Office for Coastal Management

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov 

NOAA Research, Climate Program Office and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.research.noaa.gov

NOAA National Sea Grant Office

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantic, South Atlantic, and Great

Lakes Regional Collaboration Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Southeast Regional Climate Center

www.sercc.com

National Integrated Drought Information

System

www.drought.gov

Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments

www.cisa.sc.edu

Consortium on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperative Institute for North Atlantic Research

www.cinar.org

Eastern Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org 

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature

El Niño

New Tools and Resources

The U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit features 

case studies and interactive tools, such as 

maps of storm surge flooding and predicted 

drought conditions, to help users understand 

and address climate change risks and 

opportunities. NOAA's Lake Level Viewer 

allows users to see how various Great Lakes 

water levels impact shoreline position, water 

depth, society, and business. New Jersey's 

NJADAPT website, which helps communities 

understand their vulnerabilities to coastal 

hazards and measures that can be taken to 

increase local resilience, features three major 

products: a self assessment tool, local coastal 

flooding impacts maps, and an interactive 

map to visualize coastal flooding hazards and 

sea level rise. NOAA Fisheries and Rutgers 

University launched the OceanAdapt web tool

to help managers, scientists, fishing sectors, 

and others track shifts in the distribution 

of marine species with changes in ocean 

and climate conditions. The New York State 

Climate Change Science Clearinghouse, which 

is slated for public beta-release in spring 2015, 

will feature a unique blend of interactively 

searchable climate data, GIS mapping, and 

text-based documents relevant to climate 

change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation in 

the state. 

Ocean Conditions

Sea surface temperatures and bottom 

temperatures generally remained above 

the long-term mean in the Northeast Shelf 

Large Marine Ecosystem (Gulf of Maine 

to Cape Hatteras, NC). The trend towards 

earlier arrival of spring-like temperatures 

continued, and 2014 was one of the earliest 

springs in the last 30 years. Projections 

indicate that over the next 75 years springlike temperatures will occur three to four 

weeks earlier and extend later into the fall—

increasing the summer season by about two 

months. 

With the current fishable stock the smallest 

on record, the northern shrimp season was 

cancelled in the Gulf of Maine for a second 

consecutive year. The Gulf of Maine cod 

stock is also at record low levels. Emergency 

measures were implemented in early 

November that close more fishing grounds, 

limit cod catches, and ban recreational cod 

fishing for at least six months. The Gulf of 

Maine is near the southern limit for both 

cod and shrimp. Warmer waters have been 

implicated in the decline in shrimp and 

have likely compounded the management 

challenges for cod. 

While sea surface temperatures in the 

equatorial Pacific Ocean became increasingly 

warm in November, ENSO-neutral conditions 

continued as of early December. A clear link 

between expected atmospheric conditions 

during El Niño and the warm waters has not 

been established. Computer models continue 

to indicate the emergence of a weak El Niño 

event, though. The Climate Prediction Center 

says there is a 65% chance of El Niño during 

winter and lasting through spring 2015.

Valid for January–March 2015

A: Above-normal

B: Below- normal

EC: Equal chances of 

above-, near, or belownormal 

33/40: Probability of 

above- or below-normal

The Climate 

Prediction Center 

calls for an 

increased chance 

of above-normal temperatures for parts of New 

England, an increased chance of below-normal 

temperatures for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio, 

and the Carolinas, and equal chances elsewhere. 

The potential for El Niño was factored into 

the temperature forecast. With El Niño, 

temperatures tend to be below normal in 

the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. A weak El 

Niño, like what is predicted, favors more 

variable temperature conditions elsewhere. 

Also, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast 

to possibly become negative. The AO refers 

to the difference in strength of atmospheric 

pressure over the Arctic and middle latitudes. 

When pressure is higher than average over the 

Arctic and lower than average over the middle 

latitudes, the AO is negative. The jetstream 

shifts southward, allowing cold polar air to move 

southward, too. In New England, long-term 

trends indicate above-normal temperatures are 

most likely. 

Hurricane Season

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was 

below average, as predicted, with eight 

named storms, six hurricanes, and two major 

hurricanes (see graphic above). The first 

storm of the season, Hurricane Arthur, was 

the only landfalling hurricane on the East 

Coast. An average hurricane season, based on 

30 years of data, has twelve named storms, 

six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. 

Increased atmospheric stability, along with 

strong vertical wind shear, helped suppress the 

hurricane season. 

The precipitation 

outlook indicates 

an increased 

chance of 

above-normal precipitation for coastal areas 

in the Carolinas, an increased chance of 

below-normal precipitation in Ohio, and 

equal chances elsewhere. These precipitation 

patterns are consistent with what would be 

expected during El Niño.

A: Above-normal

B: Below- normal

EC: Equal chances of 

above-, near, or belownormal 

33/40: Probability of 

above- or below-normal

Precipitation

Valid for January–March 2015

B

A

B

A

33

40 33

33

40

33

40

EC EC

40