Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisoff (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|September 2014

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Eastern Region

September 2014

National - Significant Events for June–August 2014

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies 

Regional - Climate Overview for June–August 2014

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

June 1–August 31, 2014

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

June 1–August 31, 2014

24-Hour Total Precipitation (in.)

Ending 8 a.m. August 13, 2014

June

July

Highlights for the East

Severe storms struck the region throughout 

summer. Forty-eight tornadoes touched down, 

with the majority occurring in July. A tornado 

in Madison County on July 8 was the second 

deadliest tornado in New York. A tornado in 

Suffolk County, MA, on July 28 was the first 

tornado to strike the county since records 

began. Also, straight line winds of up to 100 

mph caused extensive damage. Flash flooding 

accompanied the storms, as did large hail.

In early July, Hurricane Arthur's storm surge 

and heavy rain caused flooding in coastal North 

Carolina and southeastern Massachusetts. 

Arthur was the earliest hurricane to make 

landfall in North Carolina since records began 

in 1851. 

On August 12 and 13 extreme rainfall shattered 

records and caused significant flash flooding. 

Numerous roads, including major highways, 

were submerged under feet of water, leaving 

cars stranded and leading to dozens of water 

rescues. Also, two long-term parking lots at 

Baltimore-Washington International Airport 

were partially flooded. For details on the 

rainfall, see the Regional Climate Overview 

section below.

Islip, NY, saw 13.57 inches of rain on August 

12-13. The site set a New York State 24-hour 

precipitation record, had its wettest August on 

record, and tied its all-time wettest month on 

record. This was a 200-year storm event, meaning 

rainfall of that magnitude is only expected to 

occur once in a 200-year period. The preliminary 

NOAA Atlas-14 amounts were extremely close to 

the Northeast Regional Climate Center Extreme 

Precipitation Analysis for the 10–100 year event 

for durations of 6 and 24 hours. Baltimore, MD, 

and Portland, ME, which both saw over 6 inches 

of rain on the 12th or 13th, had their highest 

amount of precipitation for any calendar day that 

was non-tropical based. In addition, Portland set 

hourly and consecutive two-hour rainfall records. 

The Eastern Region picked up 105% of normal 

rainfall during summer. Of the nine wet states, 

three ranked the season among their top 20 

wettest. South Carolina had its 20th driest 

summer on record. Ten states were drier than 

normal in June, but the region ended the month 

at 100% of normal. Delaware had its 19th driest 

June on record, while Ohio had its 19th wettest. 

In July, the region saw 107% of normal rainfall. 

Ten states were wetter than normal, with five 

ranking this July among their top 20 wettest. 

The region received 101% of normal rainfall in 

August, with nine states drier than normal. 

The average summer temperature for the 

Eastern Region was 70.2°F, 0.6°F cooler than 

normal. Fourteen of the sixteen states saw 

below-normal temperatures. Maine, however, 

had its 15th warmest summer on record. June 

was warmer than normal for all states, with 

the region 1.0°F above normal. Ten states were 

cooler than normal during July, with the region 

1.2°F below normal. Ohio and West Virginia 

had their 3rd and 16th coolest July on record, 

respectively, while Rhode Island had its 19th 

warmest July. The region ended August at 

1.5°F below normal. Fifteen states were cooler 

than normal, with Virginia and North Carolina 

ranking the month among their top 20 coolest. 

During summer, the contiguous United States had an average temperature of 71.1°F, 0.3°F above the 20th 

century average. This made it the coolest summer since 2009. Summer precipitation in the contiguous United 

States totaled 9.39 inches, 1.07 inches above average. This made it the ninth wettest summer on record and 

the wettest summer since 2004. The contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand was 8% below 

average during summer, based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index.

August Extreme Rainfall

Normals based on 1981–2010
Regional - Impacts for June–August 2014

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisoff (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|September 2014 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Fall 2014 Eastern Region Partners

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Climatic Data Center

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

National Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Offices, Atlantic

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Coastal Services Center and National Centers for Ocean 

and Coastal Science

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov 

NOAA Research, Climate Program Office and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.oar.noaa.gov

NOAA National Sea Grant Office

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantic, South Atlantic, and Great

Lakes Regional Collaboration Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Southeast Regional Climate Center

www.sercc.com

National Integrated Drought Information

System

www.drought.gov

Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments

www.cisa.sc.edu

Consortium on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperative Institute for North Atlantic Research

www.cinar.org

Eastern Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org 

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature and 

Precipitation

El Niño

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (°C)

September 7–13, 2014

A

Agriculture

Last winter's cold temperatures damaged up to 90% of buds of some grape varieties in parts of the region. Due 

to low grape supply and high demand, New York is allowing wineries to use out-of-state grapes for the first time 

since 2005. The harsh winter also wiped out Ohio's peach crop. The state had to import peaches from South 

Carolina, which rebounded from a slow start. In some areas, heavy rain caused soggy fields and crop diseases, 

but in other areas, crops were stressed by a lack of rain. While yields varied from farm to farm, corn and 

soybean harvests in Ohio were expected to surpass last year's record-setting numbers by 5–6%. 

Precipitation Variability

Precipitation was highly variable in the Eastern Region this summer. Coastal Maine received around 145% of its 

normal summer rainfall, while just to the south, coastal Massachusetts experienced abnormally dry conditions. 

In Viginia and the Carolinas, rain totals ranged from less than 25% of normal in some areas to more than 200% 

of normal in other areas in July and August. Locally heavy rainfall affected sites such as Islip, NY; Raleigh, NC; 

and Portland, ME. Consistent with a changing climate, the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation 

events will continue to increase, but so will the annual number of consecutive dry days. That's because higher 

temperatures lead to greater evaporation (leading to dry conditions), but a warmer atmosphere can contain 

more moisture (leading to heavier downpours).

Sea Level Rise

Rising sea levels have increased "nuisance flooding" by up to 925% since the 1960s, according to a recent NOAA 

report. Nuisance flooding causes "public inconveniences such as road closures, overwhelmed storm drains, and 

compromised infrastructure." Of the top ten cities that have seen an increase in this type of flooding, eight are 

located in the Eastern Region. Annapolis and Baltimore, both in Maryland, have seen the largest increase at 

925% and 922%, respectively. Due to increased sea level, nuisance flooding no longer just occurs with coastal 

storms, but with high tides too. The report noted that other locations will begin to experience nuisance flooding 

as sea levels continue to rise, and if sea level rise accelerates, the impacts of the flooding would be intensified. 

Another report estimates that based on current projected sea level rise, average annual property losses due 

to coastal storms in the Northeast will likely increase by $6–9 billion by 2100. Changes in hurricane activity 

due to climate change, such as increased intensity, would increase losses by $11–17 billion. Sea level rise also 

affects coastal ecosystems through erosion, inundation of wetlands, and changes in water salinity. Due to its low 

elevation and tidal range, the Atlantic coast is particularly susceptible to wetland losses.

As of mid-September, El Niño conditions 

remained neutral in the equatorial Pacific. 

According to NOAA, “El Niño is favored to 

emerge during September–October, and to peak 

at weak strength during the late fall and early 

winter.” There is a 60–65% chance of El Niño 

development during fall and winter. In addition 

to the potential warming of the tropical Pacific, 

much above normal sea surface temperatures 

in the North Pacific are expected to influence 

temperature and precipitation outlooks in fall 

and winter.

Valid for October–December 2014

A: Above-normal 

33/40: Probability 

of above- or belownormal temperatures

Probability of above-normal

The Climate 

Prediction Center 

calls for an 

increased chance 

of above-normal 

temperatures 

for the entire Eastern Region for October–

December. Much of the Northeast and parts 

of the Carolinas have the greatest chance for 

above-normal temperatures. 

The precipitation outlook for October–

December shows an increased chance of 

above-normal precipitation in the eastern 

Carolinas, with equal chances of above-, near-, 

or below-normal precipitation elsewhere. 

Updated 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season NOAA’s updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook, released on August 7, calls for a 70% chance 

of a below-normal season. The initial outlook from May called for a 50% chance of a below-normal 

season. The updated outlook, which includes hurricanes Arthur and Bertha, predicts 7–12 named 

storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes. In comparison, the May outlook predicted 8–13 

named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–2 major hurricanes. The outlook changes are due to the 

development of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that inhibit storm formation, the expectation 

that unfavorable conditions will persist through the season, and the likely development of El Niño. 

A

33

40

The U.S. Drought Monitor released on 

September 16, 2014. Parts of southern 

New England, the Carolinas, and 

Virginia experienced abnormally dry 

conditions through much of summer. 

Other areas received extreme rainfall.