Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

June 2016

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Gulf of Maine Region

June 2016

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

htp://ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=6AABE50C-1

 Gulf of Maine Signifcant Events - March–May 2016

Precipitation Sea Surface Temperatures

Regional Climate Overview - March–May 2016

Spring sea surface temperature anomalies 

in the Gulf of Maine were warmer than the 

spring long-term average over the entre 

region. Temperatures over coastal areas of 

eastern Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova 

Scota were 0.5°C (1°F) to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above 

normal. Of the coast of Massachusets and 

western Maine, temperatures were 0.5°C (1°F) 

above normal. Temperatures were 0.5°C (1°F) 

to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above normal over deeper 

basins in the central Gulf of Maine and Scotan 

Shelf. These warm anomalies contnue a 

region-wide contnuous warm surface ocean 

period that began in September 2015.

Spring temperatures (averaged over March, 

April, and May) ranged from 2°C (4°F) below 

normal to 2°C (4°F) above normal (map 

above). In March, temperatures ranged from 

3°C (5°F) below normal to 3°C (5°F) above 

normal. The coldest areas were in northern 

New Brunswick, while the warmest areas 

were in Massachusets, New Hampshire, and 

southern Maine. April temperatures ranged 

from 3°C (5°F) below normal to near normal, 

with the coldest areas in northwestern Maine 

and northwestern New Brunswick. In May,

temperatures ranged from near normal to 2°C 

(4°F) above normal for a majority of the region. 

Sea surface temperature anomalies based on 1985–2016. 

Mean SST anomalies from NOAA AVHRR data. Credit: 

University of Maine School of Marine Sciences and NERACOOS

Temperature

Numerous storms 

impacted the 

region in March.

Spring precipitaton (accumulated from March 

through May) ranged from 50% to 150% of 

normal (map above). In March, precipitaton 

ranged from 50% to 200% of normal. The 

driest areas were in eastern Massachusets, 

while the wetest areas were in northern 

Maine. April precipitaton ranged from 25% 

of normal to near normal in the three states. 

Precipitaton in the Maritmes ranged from 

25% of normal in eastern New Brunswick to 

150% of normal in northern Nova Scota. In 

May, precipitaton ranged from 25% of normal 

in parts of the three states to 150% of normal 

in northeastern New Brunswick and Cape 

Breton, NS, with most areas seeing 50% to 

110% of normal. Parts of the three states were 

abnormally dry due to below-normal spring 

precipitaton. 

Departure from Normal

Temperature and precipitaton normals based on 1981–2010. 

Canada and ocean precip data: Canadian Precipitaton Analysis.

U.S. precipitaton data: interpolated staton data.

Departure from Normal Percent of Normal

Northern Maine and northern New Brunswick saw up to 20 cm 

(8 in.) of snow in mid-May. Caribou, ME received 11.4 cm (4.5 

in.) on the 16th, which was the site’s largest snowfall so late 

in the season. Cold water temperatures and windy conditons 

through mid-May led to reduced lobster catches around P.E.I.

Seasonal snowfall (October–May) was near to below normal 

in New Brunswick, near to above normal in P.E.I., and varied in 

Nova Scota. In the three states, seasonal snowfall was below 

normal, with the largest defcits of more than 2 m (6 f.) in 

southwestern Maine. Concord, NH had its fourth least snowy 

season. With limited snowpack, litle spring fooding occurred.

Strong winds caused damage 

and power outages in the 

three states in early April.

Storms frequently tracked through the region during March. Some of the large 

events are highlighted below.

• March 2–3: Up to 34 cm (15 in.) of snow fell in northern Maine and northern 

New Brunswick, while the rest of the region saw up to 36 mm (1.40 in.) of rain. 

Northern Maine accumulated up to 1 cm (0.40 in.) of ice. 

• March 5: A nor’easter dropped up to 30 cm (12 in.) of snow in Nova Scota. 

Wind gusts of up to 80 km/h (50 mph) led to whiteout conditons. 

• March 21: Most of the region saw up to 25 cm (10 in.) of snow. However, the 

Acadian Peninsula saw up to 48 cm (19 in.) of snow and up to six hours of near 

zero visibility, resultng in schools being closed for two days. 

• March 25–26: Mixed precipitaton impacted the region. The greatest snow 

totals of more than 20 cm (8 in.) were in northeastern New Brunswick. Central 

parts of the province experienced up to 18 hours of freezing precipitaton. 

Snow and ice turned to rain in Nova Scota, where up to 30 mm (1.20 in.) 

of rain fell. Up to 18 cm (7 in.) of snow and up to 0.8 cm (0.3 in.) of ice 

accumulaton were reported in northern Maine, with the rest of the three 

states generally seeing rain.

• March 28–29: Up to 32 cm (13 in.) of snow fell in northern New Brunswick and 

northern Maine and up to 65 mm (2.60 in.) of rain fell in the rest of the region. 

At the beginning of April, snow on the ground was above normal in northern New 

Brunswick but below normal in southern New Brunswick.

In early April, two strong cold fronts produced wind gusts up to 124 km/h (77 

mph) in New England. The winds caused structural damage, downed trees and 

powerlines, and lef more than 70,000 customers in Massachusets and Maine

without power. Wet snow from April 9 to 10 brought down trees and powerlines in 

Nova Scota, leaving more than 16,000 customers without power. Numerous fights 

were also delayed. A storm from April 11 to 12 dropped up to 78 mm (3.10 in.) of 

rain on New Brunswick.

Sea surface temperatures 

during spring contnued 

to be warmer than 

normal.

Temperature swings 

during spring led to some 

crop damage in the three 

states. See the Impacts 

secton for more details.
Regional Impacts - March–May 2016

Regional Outlook - Summer 2016 Gulf of Maine Region Partners

Environment and Climate Change Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

NOAA Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

Northeast River Forecast Center

www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Regional Climate Services

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/rcsd

Gulf of Maine Research Insttute

www.gmri.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton System 

www.drought.gov

Cooperatve Insttute for the North Atlantc Region

www.cinar.org

Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment, Climate 

Network

www.gulfofmaine.org/climatenetwork

Northeastern Regional Associaton of Coastal and Ocean 

Systems

www.neracoos.org

University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences

www.umaine.edu/marine

Contacts

NOAA:

Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Samantha Borisof (samantha.borisof@cornell.edu)

Environment and Climate Change Canada:

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

819-997-2800 (long-distance charges apply)

enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca 

To receive this publicaton every quarter, sign up at htp://

www.gulfofmaine.org/2/climate-network-climate-outlook.

Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

June 2016 

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

htp://ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=6AABE50C-1

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature and 

Precipitation

For June–August, NOAA’s Climate Predicton 

Center (CPC) and Environment and Climate 

Change Canada (ECCC) are both calling 

for an increased chance of above-normal 

temperatures for the Gulf of Maine region.

The CPC is forecastng an increased chance of 

above-normal precipitaton for the three states 

for June–August. The U.S. Drought Outlook

indicates dry conditons are expected to ease in 

New England. ECCC is forecastng an increased 

chance of above-normal precipitaton in 

eastern New Brunswick and western P.E.I., with 

equal chances for the rest of the Maritmes. 

La Niña

As of early June, El Niño dissipated and 

ENSO-neutral conditons were present in the 

equatorial Pacifc Ocean. Most models predict 

La Niña conditons will develop during summer, 

with a 75% chance of La Niña during fall and 

winter. Currently, forecasters are expectng a 

weak or borderline moderate La Niña.

Ocean Impacts

A study found that the Gulf of Maine waters are “yellowing” by using the Forel-Ule color scale, a color index 

that indicates the color of the water and helps determine biological actvity. An increase in precipitaton 

over the past few decades washed more dissolved organic mater into rivers and increased river discharge, 

which carried the mater into the Gulf. This organic mater led to reduced water transparency and decreased 

productvity of phytoplankton, an essental part of the food chain. The efect was most notceable along 

Maine’s coast. Precipitaton and discharges of organic mater are expected to increase over the next century. 

A study by Saba et al. (2016) found that a high-resoluton global climate model was more accurate than 

coarse-resoluton models at resolving regional circulaton paterns and submarine topographic infuences 

on ocean temperature and salinity in the U.S. Northeast Contnental Shelf (Cape Hateras, NC to the Gulf of 

Maine). The carbon dioxide doubling response from this model (botom lef fgure) shows that botom ocean 

temperature in the Shelf, partcularly in the Gulf of Maine, warms at a rate nearly 2–3 tmes as fast as the 

coarser models. This enhanced warming is accompanied by an increase in salinity due to circulaton changes. 

The Government of Canada released a report highlightng climate change impacts, risks and opportunites, 

case studies, and adaptaton approaches along Canada’s marine coasts. The report mentons that median 

sea level rise by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario is expected to be 80–100 cm (2.6–3.3 f.) at Saint 

John, NB; Halifax, NS; and Charlotetown, P.E.I. In additon, tdal range and water level extremes are 

expected to increase by 5–20 cm (2–8 in.) in the Bay of Fundy due to tdal resonance. 

NOAA high-resoluton global climate model 

projecton of botom ocean temperature 

change under an atmospheric carbon 

dioxide doubling experiment.

Modeled snow water 

equivalent for April 1, 

2016. Credit: NOAA’s 

Natonal Operatonal 

Hydrologic Remote 

Sensing Center.

Spring Temperatures

Spring featured summer-like warmth in March and winter-like cold in April. On March 9, high temperatures 

were up to 14°C (25°F) above normal. Boston, MA and Concord, NH had their warmest temperature so early 

in the calendar year with a high of 25°C (77°F). Lake Winnipesaukee, New Hampshire’s largest lake, had its 

earliest ice out on record (since 1887) on March 18, which was fve days ahead of the previous record (set 

in 2012) and the frst tme it occurred on an astronomical winter day. In additon, warm temperatures led to 

some bears coming out of hibernaton up to a month early. Arctc air moved into the region in early April. 

Boston, Concord, and Portland (ME)’s high temperatures on the 4th ranked as their third all-tme coldest 

for April. Low temperatures on the 5th were up to 14°C (25°F) below normal. Concord, NH had its all-tme 

coldest April temperature on record with a low of -16°C (4°F). According to U.S. Department of Agriculture 

crop reports, the cold temperatures damaged some apple, raspberry, and blueberry buds. 

Atlantic Hurricane Season

NOAA’s 2016 Atlantc hurricane outlook

indicates a near-normal season is most likely. 

There’s a 70% chance of 10–16 named storms. 

Of the named storms, 4–8 could become 

hurricanes, with 1–4 of those becoming major 

hurricanes. Even though a near-normal season 

is most likely, there is a chance the season 

could be above or below normal. Two factors 

infuencing this year’s outlook are the Atlantc 

Mult-Decadal Oscillaton (AMO) and La Niña. 

The AMO is a naturally occurring variability 

in sea surface temperature in the North 

Atlantc. There is a cool phase, associated with 

low hurricane actvity, and a warm phase, 

associated with high hurricane actvity. Since 

1995, the AMO has been in a warm phase. 

However, the past three hurricane seasons 

have been below normal and accompanied by 

a shif toward the cool phase. There is some 

uncertainty if this shif is temporary or not. 

There’s a 70% chance of La Niña conditons 

during the peak of hurricane season. While La 

Niña favors a more actve hurricane season, 

its strength and impacts are uncertain. 

Indicatons are this season could be more 

actve than the past few. 

The Atlantc hurricane season runs from 

June 1 through November 30, with a peak 

from mid-August to late October. There have 

already been three named storms: Hurricane 

Alex in January, Tropical Storm Bonnie in late 

May, and Tropical Storm Colin in early June.

in. cm