Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

June 2017

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Gulf of Maine Region

June 2017

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

htp://ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=6AABE50C-1

 Gulf of Maine Signifcant Events - March–May 2017

Precipitation Sea Surface Temperatures

Regional Climate Overview - March–May 2017

Spring sea surface temperatures were around 

0.5°C (1°F) warmer than normal over most of 

the western Gulf of Maine, the Bay of Fundy, 

Georges Bank, and areas greater than 5 km (3 

miles) of the Maine coast. Over much of the 

eastern Gulf of Maine and the southern Scotan 

Shelf, temperatures were up to 0.3°C (0.5°F) 

below normal. In waters close to the Maine coast 

and eastern Cape Cod Bay, temperatures were 

around 0.5°C (1°F) below normal. While the twoyear-long trend of region-wide warm anomalies 

contnued in March, the cold anomalies 

were primarily the result of colder surface 

temperatures developing in April and May. 

Above-average sea surface temperatures over the 

past few years in the Bay of Fundy contributed to 

an increased number of sea lice outbreaks since 

2012, including one in 2016 that resulted in the 

death of more than 500,000 farmed salmon.

Spring temperatures (averaged over March, 

April, and May) ranged from 2°C (4°F) below 

normal to near normal. March temperatures 

ranged from 4°C (7°F) below normal in 

portons of Maine and New Hampshire to near 

normal in northeastern P.E.I. and Cape Breton, 

N.S. April temperatures ranged from near 

normal in much of the Maritmes to 3°C (5°F) 

above normal in eastern Massachusets and 

parts of Maine and New Hampshire. Numerous 

temperature records were set in the Maritmes 

when highs reached 26°C (79°F) from April 

10–12, lows dropped to -9°C (16°F) on April 

19, and highs reached 25°C (77°F) from April 

27–29. May temperatures ranged from 2°C 

(4°F) below normal to near normal for most of 

the region, with the coolest spots in southern 

New Hampshire, southern Maine, and Cape 

Breton, N.S.

Sea surface temperature anomalies based on 1985–2017. 

Mean SST anomalies from NOAA AVHRR data. Credit: 

University of Maine School of Marine Sciences and NERACOOS

Temperature

Spring precipitaton (accumulated from 

March–May) ranged from 75% to 150% of 

normal. March precipitaton ranged from 50% 

of normal to near normal for a majority of 

the region, with the main exceptons being 

far northern Maine and portons of northern 

New Brunswick and Cape Breton, N.S. April

precipitaton ranged from less than 50% to 

more than 175% of normal. The driest areas 

were portons of southern New Brunswick, 

central and eastern P.E.I., and Cape Breton and 

northern Nova Scota. Eastern Massachusets 

was the wetest area. May was quite wet, with 

precipitaton generally ranging from 110% to 

more than 200% of normal. The wetest areas 

were in eastern Nova Scota, eastern New 

Brunswick, and much of P.E.I.

Departure from Normal

Temp and precip normals based 

on 1981–2010 data.

Departure from Normal Percent of Normal

Spring featured several temperature extremes. On March 

11, Caribou, ME’s high of -18°C (-1°F) was its second coldest 

March high temperature on record. Wind chill values across 

the region were as low as -36°C (-33°F). On May 18 and 19, 

highs reached up to 35°C (95°F). A few New England sites had 

one of their top fve warmest spring days. Records were set in 

the Maritmes as well. On May 18, a strong cold front sparked 

severe thunderstorms. In New England, the storms downed 

numerous trees. In New Brunswick, winds of up to 190 km/h 

(118 mph) knocked down power poles, leaving more than 

7,000 NB Power customers without power and cutng of 

Lamèque Island from the mainland. 

March featured below-normal 

temperatures and multple 

snowstorms, including a major 

nor’easter from March 13–15.

By early May, the three New England states were free of drought for the frst tme 

since June 2016. Drought conditons also eased in the Maritmes. See Regional 

Impacts secton for details. 

From March 13–15, a major nor’easter brought up to 61 cm (24 in.) of snow and 

wind gusts of up to 124 km/h (77 mph) to the region. A peak gust of 156 km/h (97 

mph) was recorded in the Cape Breton (N.S.) Highlands. Blizzard conditons occurred 

for four hours in Lawrence, MA. More than 150,000 customers in the three New 

England states, and more than 40,000 customers in the Maritmes lost power.

Several other storms hit the region in March. From March 21–22, Nova Scota 

received freezing rain and up to 25 cm (10 in.) of snow, which lef thousands without 

power. Up to 30 cm (12 in.) of snow and wind gusts of up to 100 km/h (62 mph) 

created blizzard conditons in parts of the Maritmes from March 22–23. A series of 

low pressure systems brought up to 50 cm (20 in.) of snow and wind gusts of up to 

100 km/h (62 mph) to Nova Scota from March 29–April 4. Persistent northerly winds

from the storms caused an unusually large amount of ice to build up around parts of 

Cape Breton, N.S., and P.E.I.’s North Shore. A ferry was trapped in the ice of the Cape 

Breton coast for several hours on April 4, and other ferry crossings were delayed due 

to ice, high winds, and high seas. In New England, a storm from March 31–April 1 

brought up to 48 cm (19 in.) of snow, up to 100 mm (4 in.) of rain, and strong winds, 

resultng in downed trees, power outages, and some fooding. At the end of March, 

New Brunswick had almost two tmes the normal amount of snow on the ground. 

Caribou, ME, had 30 cm (12 in.) or more of snow on the ground for 132 consecutve 

days (November 30, 2016–April 10, 2017), which is the longest stretch on record and 

12 days longer than the previous record set in 1968–69. 

Up to 190 mm (7.5 in.) of rain fell in the eastern Maritmes from May 5–11. In Nova 

Scota, the heavy rain washed out roads and fooded basements in Cape Breton and 

contributed to Sydney and Ingonish Beach having their wetest May since 1870 and 

1950, respectvely. There was also localized fooding and erosion in western P.E.I.

Drought conditons eased during spring in 

the region.

Numerous high temperature 

records were set on May 18 

and 19. On May 18, severe 

thunderstorms caused damage in 

the region.
Regional Impacts - March–May 2017

Regional Outlook - Summer 2017 Gulf of Maine Region Partners

Environment and Climate Change Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

NOAA Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

Northeast River Forecast Center

www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Regional Climate Services

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/rcsd

Gulf of Maine Research Insttute

www.gmri.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton System 

www.drought.gov

Cooperatve Insttute for the North Atlantc Region

www.cinar.org

Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment, Climate 

Network

www.gulfofmaine.org/climatenetwork

Northeastern Regional Associaton of Coastal and Ocean 

Systems

www.neracoos.org

University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences

www.umaine.edu/marine

Contacts

NOAA:

Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Samantha Borisof (samantha.borisof@cornell.edu)

Environment and Climate Change Canada:

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

819-997-2800 (long-distance charges apply)

ec.enviroinfo.ec@canada.ca

To receive this publicaton every quarter, sign up at 

www.gulfofmaine.org/2/climate-network-climate-outlook.

Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

June 2017 

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

htp://ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=6AABE50C-1

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature and 

Precipitation

For June–August, Environment and Climate 

Change Canada (ECCC) and NOAA’s Climate 

Predicton Center (CPC) are calling for an 

increased chance of above-normal temperatures 

for the entre region. For precipitaton, CPC is 

predictng equal chances of below-, near-, or 

above-normal precipitaton for June–August, 

while ECCC is forecastng an increased chance of 

below-normal precipitaton in the southern half 

of Nova Scota and equal chances elsewhere. 

With ENSO-neutral conditons expected during 

summer, ENSO was not a major factor in the 

outlooks. The forecast for New England was 

based on computer models and long-term 

climate trends. 

New England and southwestern Nova Scota 

were drought-free as of early June, but 

conditons contnue to be monitored as drought 

could redevelop if there were a long period of 

dryness and unusually warm temperatures.

Probability of above-normal (A)

ECCC temperature map (lef) produced on May 31. 

CPC temperature map (right) produced on May 18.

50

Above: May 2017 North American 

Drought Monitor. Below: Typical minor 

spring fooding along the St. John River in 

Fredericton, NB, on April 29, 2017.

Credit: Rick Fleetwood.

Drought

While March average streamfow was generally normal or below normal in the three states (except in 

northern Maine), April and May average streamfow was normal or above normal. Groundwater and 

reservoir levels increased, returning to normal or above normal in most areas, but remaining below normal 

in a few areas. The Massachusets Water Resources Authority contnued to urge customers to conserve 

water as the Quabbin Reservoir was at 82.1% of capacity on April 1 and 85.7% on May 1, which was below 

normal. On April 20, Manchester, NH, ofcials lifed voluntary water restrictons that had been in efect 

since October 2016 as the city’s water supply had returned to full capacity. With improving conditons, 

drought declaratons eased in Massachusets. Even though drought conditons improved, impacts from it 

contnued to be reported. Scientsts estmate it could take Maine’s wild brook trout populaton up to four 

years to recover from the drought, which dried up waterways, led to low water levels, and made stranded 

trout easy prey. The drought killed winter tcks by depriving them of moisture, which in turn helped more 

moose calves in Maine and New Hampshire survive the winter. Preliminary data from New Hampshire and 

Maine indicated there was a dramatc reducton in moose calf mortality this year compared to last year.

A

Spring Conditions

Snow removal costs went further over budget in Bangor and Portland, ME, due to multple snowstorms 

in March. A few New England ski resorts were able to remain open through mid-April due to a deep 

snow pack. Colder-than-normal conditons during March contributed to a slow start to the elver (young 

eel) season in Maine, but allowed the ice fshing season in northern parts of the state to be extended by 

two weeks (from April 1 to April 16). The cold March and a warm April negatvely afected maple syrup 

producton. Seasonal snowmelt, ice jams, and several rounds of heavy rain led to minor fooding in parts of 

New Brunswick and northern Maine in late April and early May. The main impacts were fooded basements 

and closed roads. Residents in Doaktown, N.B., were under a boil water advisory for several weeks. Wet 

conditons in April and May delayed plantng and feld work in the region, but helped pastures green up. 

Due to saturated ground, spring weight restrictons were lef in place for an extra week in northern New 

Brunswick. In April, the start of fre season was delayed in New Brunswick due to wet conditons and in late 

May, burned forested area was only 10% of the 10-year average. However, drier conditons in May in Nova 

Scota led to increased fre risk, burn restrictons, and several forest fres. Cool, stormy conditons in May 

contributed to lower lobster landings and higher lobster prices in P.E.I.

Atlantic Hurricane Season

NOAA’s 2017 Atlantc hurricane outlook 

indicates there is a 45% chance that this 

season will be more actve than normal, a 35% 

chance the season will be near-normal, and a 

20% chance the season will be below normal. 

With an above-normal season most likely, the 

outlook calls for “a 70% likelihood of 11–17 

named storms (winds of 63 km/h [39 mph] or 

higher), of which 5–9 could become hurricanes 

(winds of 119 km/h [74 mph] or higher), 

including 2–4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 

or 5; winds of 179 km/h [111 mph] or higher).” 

The Atlantc hurricane season runs from June 1 

through November 30, with a peak from midAugust to late October. However, there has 

already been a tropical system this year (which 

was accounted for in the forecast): Tropical 

Storm Arlene in April. The system was shortlived and did not impact land, but according to 

NOAA’s Natonal Hurricane Center, it was only 

the second tropical storm in April since satellite 

data began.

Factors leading to the forecast for an abovenormal season included near- to aboveaverage sea surface temperatures in the main 

area of the Atlantc where hurricanes develop, 

near- to weaker-than-average vertcal wind 

shear (change in directon and/or speed with 

alttude) in this main development area, 

and expected ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño 

conditons.