Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

September 2015

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Gulf of Maine Region

September 2015

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=F2BDD611

 Gulf of Maine Signifcant Events - June–August 2015

Precipitation Sea Surface Temperatures

Regional Climate Overview - June–August 2015

Severe thunderstorms afected parts of the region during summer. Two EF-0 

tornadoes touched down in Massachusets on June 23. A microburst in Albion, ME on 

July 28 damaged buildings, trees, and crops. Two days later, an EF-0 tornado touched 

down in Warner, NH. On August 4, a waterspout was reported in Boston Harbor and 

an unconfrmed EF-0 tornado in Five Islands, NS caused property damage. On the 

same day, large hail fell in New Brunswick and the three states, including a 6.4 cm (2.5 

in.) hailstone near Waterboro, ME. Lightning knocked out power to tens of thousands 

of customers in Halifax, NS on August 22 and 23. Also on the 22nd, 40.8 mm (1.61 in.) 

of rain fell in one hour at Chetcamp, NS, leading to fash fooding and the evacuaton 

of a campground in Cape Breton Highlands Natonal Park. For more details, see the 

Regional Impacts secton.

Low pressure systems also brought heavy rain to some areas. On June 21–22, coastal 

Maine and the southern half of New Brunswick received up to 150 mm (6 in.) of rain 

due to remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Bill. The heavy rain fooded roads in 

some communites. Another storm on August 8–9 brought up to 100 mm (4 in.) of 

rain to Nova Scota, with the greatest amounts in Cape Breton. From August 26–27, 

a series of thunderstorms along a trough of low pressure brought up to 170 mm (7 

in.) of rain to Charlote County, NB and up to 216 mm (8.50 in.) of rain to Washington 

County, ME. 

With a high of 9.4°C (49°F) on June 1 and 2, Boston, MA, ted its coolest maximum 

temperature for any given June day. In July, the region experienced a wide range of 

above-normal and below-normal temperatures. During a cold stretch from July 19–25, 

several Maritme communites were more than 5°C (9°F) below normal, with records 

set for lowest maximum temperature. This was followed by a warm August. Caribou, 

ME, was record-warm at 2.6°C (4.6°F) above normal. The site set a record for greatest 

number of consecutve days with a maximum temperature of 27°C (80°F) or higher 

from August 14–23. During the same tme period, New Brunswick experienced a heat 

wave, with humidex values near 40°C (104°F). See fgure to the right. 

Summer sea surface temperature anomalies 

in the Gulf of Maine refect both summer 

circulaton processes and residual warm 

water masses from previous tme periods. 

Temperatures over most regions were up to 

1°C (1.8°F) above normal, most strongly over 

the deeper basins ofshore and the Scotan 

Shelf. These refect contnuing warm water 

masses from the spring and previous summer. 

A distnct region of cold anomalies (up to 

1°C (1.8°F)) from Penobscot Bay to Cape Cod 

refects anomalously strong fow of water out 

of the cold Eastern Maine Coastal Current into 

the western Gulf. This fow is separated from 

the coast by warmer temperatures in shallow 

regions. Cooler anomalies were also present in 

much of the Bay of Fundy. 

June was quite cool regionwide, with monthly 

average temperatures generally 1°C (1.8°F) to 

3°C (5.4°F) below normal. Maine had its 15th 

coolest June on record. July temperatures 

ranged from near normal to 2°C (3.6°F) below 

normal. The coolest areas were in parts of 

Maine and the Maritmes. August was very 

warm, with temperatures up to 4°C (7.2°F) 

above normal. The warmest areas were in 

central New Brunswick and western Prince 

Edward Island. The three states ranked this 

August among their top 11 warmest. With 

a cool June, variable July, and warm August, 

summer temperatures averaged out to be near 

normal for most of the Gulf of Maine region. 

Sea surface temperature anomalies based on 1985–2014. 

Mean SST anomalies from NOAA AVHRR data. Credit: 

University of Maine School of Marine Sciences and NERACOOS

Temperature

Severe thunderstorms 

and several low pressure 

systems impacted parts of 

the region during summer. 

June precipitaton ranged from near normal to 

more than 200% of normal, with the wetest 

areas in southern New Brunswick and parts of 

Nova Scota. The three states ranked this June 

among their top 16 wetest. July was generally 

a dry month, with precipitaton ranging from 

25% to 90% of normal. Parts of western Maine 

were the wet excepton, with up to 175% of 

normal. August precipitaton ranged widely 

from 25% up to 200% of normal. The driest 

areas were in parts of New Brunswick and 

western Nova Scota while the wetest areas 

were in central Maine. Summer precipitaton 

(accumulated during June, July, and August) 

ranged from 50% of normal in much of New 

Brunswick to 150% of normal in parts of Maine 

and Nova Scota. Maine and New Hampshire 

ranked this summer among their top 18 

wetest. 

Departure from Normal

Temperature and precipitaton normals based on 1981–2010. 

Canada and ocean precip data: Canadian Precipitaton Analysis.

U.S. precipitaton data: interpolated staton data.

Departure from Normal Percent of Normal

The region saw a wide range of 

temperatures during summer, with 

monthly average temperatures ranging 

from well below normal in June to well 

above normal in August.

Daily average temperature compared to normal at Caribou, ME. Red 

indicates above-normal temperatures and blue indicates below-normal 

temperatures. Credit: U.S. Climate Predicton Center.
Regional Impacts - June–August 2015

Regional Outlook - Autumn 2015 Gulf of Maine Region Partners

Environment Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

NOAA Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

Northeast River Forecast Center

www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Regional Climate Services

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/rcsd

Gulf of Maine Research Insttute

www.gmri.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton System 

www.drought.gov

Cooperatve Insttute for the North Atlantc Region

www.cinar.org

Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment, Climate 

Network

www.gulfofmaine.org/climatenetwork

Northeastern Regional Associaton of Coastal and Ocean 

Systems

www.neracoos.org

University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences

www.umaine.edu/marine

Contacts

NOAA:

Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Samantha Borisof (samantha.borisof@cornell.edu)

Environment Canada:

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

819-997-2800 (long-distance charges apply)

enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca 

To receive this publicaton every quarter, sign up at htp://

www.gulfofmaine.org/2/climate-network-climate-outlook.

Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

September 2015 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=F2BDD611

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature

For September 

through November, 

Environment 

Canada is calling 

for an increased chance of above-normal 

temperatures for the Maritmes. With several 

dynamical climate models in agreement, the 

U.S. Climate Predicton Center is also predictng 

an increased chance of above-normal 

temperatures for the three states for autumn.

Summer Severe Weather

New Brunswick had nine severe thunderstorm 

events this summer, compared to the average 

six events (based on 1989–2006). The province 

also had six large hail events, which is more than 

double the average. Severe weather actvity 

varied by locaton and by month in the rest of 

the Maritmes. In the three states, overall severe 

weather actvity was below average in June, 

varied by area in July, and was above average 

in August. Massachusets had two tornadoes 

in June, which was above average, while Maine 

had none, which was below average. New 

Hampshire does not usually see any tornadoes 

in July, but had one this year. The other states 

saw below average actvity. No tornadoes were 

reported in August, which is normal. 

Lef: Large hail fell in Brighton, 

MA, on August 4. (Credit: Rachel 

Rumely) Above: Damage from a 

microburst on July 28 in Albion, 

ME. (Credit: John Jensenius)

Probability of above-normal

Precipitation

Environment Canada is predictng equal 

chances of above-, near, or below-normal 

precipitaton. The U.S. Climate Predicton 

Center is calling for an increased chance of 

below-normal precipitaton for September 

through November for Maine, New 

Hampshire, and Massachusets.

U.S. Climate Predicton 

Center map (right) 

produced on August 20.

Updated 2015 Atlantic 

Hurricane Season

According to the Climate Predicton Center’s 

updated outlook issued in early August, there 

is a 90% chance of a below-normal 2015 

Atlantc hurricane season. The increased 

confdence level, the highest since hurricane 

outlooks began in 1998, is based on a 

strengthening El Niño and cooler-than-average 

tropical Atlantc sea surface temperatures. 

The outlook calls for 6-10 named storms, 

with 1-4 of those becoming hurricanes, and 

0-1 of those becoming major hurricanes. 

In comparison, a normal hurricane season 

averages 12 named storms, including 6 

hurricanes, with 3 of those becoming major 

hurricanes. As of mid-September, there have 

been eight named tropical systems in the 

Atlantc basin. Three of those entered the 

Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) Response 

Zone, although they remained well east of 

the Gulf of Maine region. On average, four 

named tropical systems per year enter the CHC 

Response Zone.

El Niño

Atmospheric and oceanic conditons during 

August refected a strong El Niño. The Climate 

Predicton Center said there is a 95% chance

of El Niño contnuing through winter. Models 

predict one of the strongest El Niños on 

record, peaking in late fall or early winter, then 

gradually weakening through spring 2016. El 

Niño’s impacts during autumn in the Gulf of 

Maine region are not strong. 

Summer Precipitation

The three states entered the summer 

season with areas of abnormal dryness and 

moderate drought already in place. The 

region’s precipitaton patern during summer 

consisted of heavy bursts of rain with extended 

periods of dryness in between. While the 

rain in June helped ease dryness for some 

areas, dry conditons lingered for Cape Cod, 

southeastern New Hampshire, and parts of 

southern Maine. With the region receiving 

spoty rainfall in August, abnormal dryness and 

moderate drought were expanded in parts of 

the three states by early September. According 

to U.S. Department of Agriculture crop reports, 

farmers had to irrigate crops in areas that 

received litle rainfall. 

33

A

Environment Canada 

map (lef) produced on 

August 31. 

Issued: September 10, 2015

40

A: Above-normal 

33/40: Probability of 

above-normal

Sea Surface Temperatures

Data show that since 2009, with the excepton 

of the cold winter of 2015, the region has 

experienced almost contnuous positve 

monthly anomalies, with a peak in 2012. 

Anomalies turn positve again in the summer 

of 2015. The positve peaks in 2010, 2012, and 

2014 are the largest departures from average 

over the 34-year period. The sloped line in 

the fgure above shows the average trend, 

which is +0.36°C (0.64°F) per decade. The 

recently released Northwest Atlantc Regional 

Climatology, which covers the Gulf of Maine, 

includes long-term annual, seasonal, and 

monthly mean temperature and salinity felds 

on diferent depth levels with three resoluton 

optons.

Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies, averaged 

over the whole Gulf of Maine, for the 34-year period 

since accurate satellite measurements began in 1982. 

Credit: University of Maine School of Marine Sciences

The U.S. Drought 

Monitor from 

September 17 shows 

abnormally dry and 

moderate drought 

conditons in parts of 

Maine, New Hampshire, 

and Massachusets.

-3.6

3.6

-1.8

1.8

0

5.4

-5.4

°C °F