Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

December 2015

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Gulf of Maine Region

December 2015

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=F2BDD611

 Gulf of Maine Signifcant Events - September–November 2015

Precipitation Sea Surface Temperatures

Regional Climate Overview - September–November 2015

September would have been a dry month for most of the region if not for two 

storms that brought heavy rainfall. Due to the storms, some areas ended September 

with nearly three tmes their normal rainfall. On September 11, a slow-moving low 

pressure system dropped up to 100 mm (4 in.) of rain, with the greatest amounts in 

southern New Brunswick. Along the Bay of Fundy coast, local rainfall rates exceeded 

35 mm (1.4 in.) per hour. The storm caused fash fooding in Fredericton and Saint 

John. From September 29 to October 1, tropical moisture fueled a stalled front and 

low pressure system, which dumped 100 mm (4 in.) to 250 mm (10 in.) of rain on 

parts of Maine, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island. Local rainfall rates were 

around 35 mm (1.4 in.) per hour. Numerous roads and bridges were washed out or 

closed. More than 400 New Brunswick locatons were damaged, with some roads stll 

closed as of early December. The Department of Transportaton and Infrastructure 

estmated repairs would top $15 million in the province. Coastal fooding was made 

worse by high tde in Portland, ME, which had its 2nd all-tme wetest September 

day. The heavy rain also caused the Maine coast to be closed to shellfsh digging. 

In additon, wind gusts up to 119 km/h (74 mph) downed trees, leading to tens of 

thousands of power outages. Several New Brunswick and Maine schools were closed. 

A powerful storm associated with the remnants of Hurricane Patricia brought strong 

winds and heavy rain to the region from October 27 to 29. In Washington County, 

ME, sustained winds of 64 km/h (40 mph), with gusts to 106 km/h (66 mph), were 

reported. Downed tree limbs led to power outages for more than 25,000 customers 

in Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova Scota. Strong winds, large waves, and high tdes

resulted in fooding and erosion along the Bay of Fundy coast. A barge fipped over in 

high waves near Saint John, NB. Rainfall from the event totaled up to 100 mm (4 in.). 

On November 23, a storm brought strong winds and up to 100 mm (4 in.) of rain to 

southern New Brunswick, Nova Scota, and Prince Edward Island, while up to 13 cm 

(5 in.) of snow fell in northern New Brunswick. The heavy rain led to shellfsh closures 

for parts of the Northumberland Strait and the north shore of Prince Edward Island.

Autumn sea surface temperature anomalies in 

the Gulf of Maine were substantally warmer 

than the autumn long-term average over the 

entre study area. Temperatures over coastal 

areas were 0.5°C (0.9°F) to 1.0°C (1.8°F) above 

normal, strongest in the Massachusets Bay 

region and weaker of midcoast Maine and 

in the Bay of Fundy. Anomalies were up to 

2.0°C (3.6°F) warmer than normal over deeper 

basins in the central Gulf of Maine and the 

Scotan Shelf of southern Nova Scota. The 

persistent above-normal ocean temperatures 

have had impacts on several species. More 

informaton can be found in the Impacts 

secton on the next page.

September was a very warm month 

regionwide, with temperatures 2°C (3.6°F) 

to 5°C (9°F) above normal. Maine and 

Massachusets had their warmest Septembers 

on record, while New Hampshire had its 

second warmest. Several Maritmes sites also 

ranked this September among their top two 

warmest. October temperatures ranged from 

2°C (3.6°F) below normal to near normal for 

most of the region. The coolest spots were 

in Maine and New Brunswick, while parts 

of Nova Scota were up to 1°C (1.8°F) above 

normal. November was another warm month, 

with temperatures 1°C (1.8°F) to 3°C (5.4°F) 

above normal. With the warm September 

and November, autumn temperatures were 

generally 0.5°C (0.9°F) to 3°C (5.4°F) above 

normal. The three states ranked this autumn 

among their top three warmest on record. 

Sea surface temperature anomalies based on 1985–2014. 

Mean SST anomalies from NOAA AVHRR data. Credit: 

University of Maine School of Marine Sciences and NERACOOS

Temperature

Heavy rain from a 

late September storm 

resulted in fooding and 

extensive damage in 

parts of the region.

September precipitaton varied widely, from 

25% of normal in northern Nova Scota to 

more than 200% in parts of northern Maine 

and southern New Brunswick. In October, 

the majority of the region saw 50% to 90% of 

normal precipitaton. The wet exceptons were 

parts of Maine and Cape Cod, which saw more 

than 125% of normal. In November, the three 

states generally saw 25% to 75% of normal 

precipitaton. In the Maritmes, precipitaton 

ranged from 50% of normal to near normal in 

most areas; however, some sites around the 

Bay of Fundy saw up to 125% of normal. Fall

precipitaton varied throughout the region, 

ranging from 50% to 200% of normal. 

Departure from Normal

Temperature and precipitaton normals based on 1981–2010. 

Canada and ocean precip data: Canadian Precipitaton Analysis.

U.S. precipitaton data: interpolated staton data.

Departure from Normal Percent of Normal

The entre region 

saw well-abovenormal temperatures 

in September and 

November. Maine 

and Massachusets 

had record-warm 

Septembers. The 

warm conditons led 

to a lack of snowfall 

in November. 

Eleven high temperature records were set in New Brunswick 

on September 7, while Boston, MA set record highs on the 8th 

and 9th. Woodstock, NB and Portland, ME had their warmest 

Septembers on record. November’s warmth contributed to 

New Brunswick receiving only 26% of normal snowfall for the 

month, Caribou, ME seeing only 36% of normal snowfall, and 

many other U.S. sites receiving no measurable snow.

The 2015 Atlantc hurricane season featured eleven named 

storms, which was below average. However, four named 

storms entered the Canadian Hurricane Centre Response 

Zone, which was near the annual average.

Sea surface temperatures 

in the Gulf of Maine 

contnued to be much 

warmer than average. 
Regional Impacts - September–November 2015

Regional Outlook - Winter 2015–16 Gulf of Maine Region Partners

Environment Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Natonal Operatonal Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

NOAA Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

Northeast River Forecast Center

www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Regional Climate Services

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/rcsd

Gulf of Maine Research Insttute

www.gmri.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton System 

www.drought.gov

Cooperatve Insttute for the North Atlantc Region

www.cinar.org

Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment, Climate 

Network

www.gulfofmaine.org/climatenetwork

Northeastern Regional Associaton of Coastal and Ocean 

Systems

www.neracoos.org

University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences

www.umaine.edu/marine

Contacts

NOAA:

Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Samantha Borisof (samantha.borisof@cornell.edu)

Environment Canada:

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

819-997-2800 (long-distance charges apply)

enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca 

To receive this publicaton every quarter, sign up at htp://

www.gulfofmaine.org/2/climate-network-climate-outlook.

Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

December 2015 

www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=F2BDD611

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature

For December through February, Environment 

Canada and NOAA’s Climate Predicton Center 

are both calling for an increased chance of 

above-normal temperatures for the Gulf of 

Maine region. 

Probability of above-normal (A)

Precipitation

Environment Canada is predictng an 

increased chance of above-normal 

precipitaton for December through February 

for New Brunswick, western Prince Edward 

Island, and portons of Nova Scota. Equal 

chances of below-, near-, or above-normal 

precipitaton was forecast for the rest of the 

Maritmes. NOAA’s Climate Predicton Center 

is calling for an increased chance of abovenormal precipitaton for Massachusets and 

southeastern New Hampshire for winter. Equal 

chances were forecast elsewhere.

Environment Canada map (above lef) produced on 

November 30. U.S. Climate Predicton Center map (above 

right) produced on November 19.

El Niño

Atmospheric and oceanic observatons 

through November refect a strong El Niño. 

The tme series above shows warm and cold 

periods of sea surface temperatures in the 

Niño 3.4 region of the central Pacifc. When 

comparing these, this El Niño ranks as one of 

the strongest on record. El Niño conditons will 

persist into early 2016 before weakening and 

transitoning to ENSO-neutral conditons by 

late spring or early summer. 

As storms ofen move up the coast during 

El Niño winters, the U.S. East Coast generally 

experiences above-normal precipitaton. 

Typically with strong El Niños, above-normal 

temperatures are favored in New England. 

Milder than normal winters also tend to occur 

in Eastern Canada. 

Other factors can also afect winter conditons, 

such as climate variability associated with 

the Arctc Oscillaton and the North Atlantc 

Oscillaton. These paterns are less able to be 

forecasted far in advance compared to El Niño, 

meaning that it is uncertain as to how much 

they will afect the upcoming winter season. 

A

40

Impacts of Ocean Warming

A recent report in Science identfed the Gulf of Maine as one of the fastest warming regions of 

the global oceans and linked the warming to the decline in the region’s cod fshery. The authors 

found that the Gulf of Maine warmed three tmes faster than the global average rate since 1982. 

Between 2004 and 2013, the rate in the Gulf of Maine was faster than 99.9% of the global ocean. 

The study found that rising water temperatures reduced the productvity of cod stocks, and that not 

accountng for the productvity change led to fshing quotas that were too high. Gulf of Maine cod 

are now at record low levels and quotas are so reduced that fshermen must now avoid cod.

The rapid warming in the northwest Atlantc has been linked to changes in the distributon of 

many ocean species. Over the last several years, scientsts have reported seeing fewer critcally 

endangered right whales in their traditonal feeding grounds in the Bay of Fundy. Right whales come 

to the Gulf of Maine to feed on a partcular cold-water zooplankton species, leading to speculaton 

that warm waters may have reduced the abundance of the whales’ favorite food. Fishing and 

shipping regulatons in the Gulf of Maine have been designed to protect right whales. During 

summer 2015, scientsts searching for right whales outside their traditonal feeding grounds found a 

surprising number of the whales in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. 

The U.S. Drought 

Monitor from 

December 10 showed 

contnuing areas of 

abnormal dryness 

and moderate 

drought in the three 

states.

Global sea surface temperature trend from 

2004–2013. The black box on the map shows 

the locaton of the Gulf of Maine. Credit: Andy 

Pershing, Gulf of Maine Research Insttute

Dryness and September Warmth

Abnormal dryness and moderate drought, which began in spring and contnued through summer, 

lingered through fall in parts of Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusets. Falling water levels in 

wells, reservoirs, lakes, and waterways led to voluntary water restrictons in several New England 

towns. In late September, two Maine countes were declared natural disaster areas due to damages 

and losses caused by drought. 

Prolonged warmth in September delayed the onset of the fall foliage season by up to two weeks 

for the entre region and extended the growing season in New Brunswick. Weather conditons were 

generally good for feld work and harvest. The warm temperatures helped pumpkins ripen early in 

some areas, but delayed color development in cranberries and a few apple varietes. The warmth 

also delayed the Maine potato harvest by a few days as it was too warm to store potatoes. Many 

crops, especially pumpkins, apples, and potatoes, were expected to be abundant and of high quality.

Trend (° per year)

°C °F