Contact: David Brown (david.p.brown@noaa.gov)

      Carlee Brown (cbrown@westgov.org)

Southern Great Plains Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | December 2012

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

1/1/2012 -11/30/2012

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

1/1/2012 - 11/30/2012

Regional - Climate Overview for September - November 2012

North American Drought Monitor

11/30/2012

Southern Great Plains Region

Winter 2012

Significant Regional and National Events for September - November 2012

North American 

Drought Monitor

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies 

Historic Drought 

Continues to Affect the 

Southern Great Plains

Oklahoma

• Agricultural damages of $426 million 

during Oct 1 2011 – Sep 30 2012 water year

Texas

• Much-needed September rainstorm adds 

over a year of supply to O.H. Ivie Reservoir 

New Mexico

• State’s primary reservoir, Elephant Butte, 

at 6% of capacity as of Nov 30th; water 

releases and deliveries may be in jeopardy

Chihuahua (Mexico)

• La Boquilla Reservoir, a major resource for 

the state, at 23% of capacity as of Nov 30th 

(Provisional data courtesy of HIgh Plains Regional Climate Center, www.hprcc.unl.edu)

Warm temperatures and drier-than-normal 

weather across much of the region in 2012 

continue to drive extreme and exceptional 

drought conditions

More information on the Southern Plains 

drought early warning system pilot project is 

available at drought.gov

Temperature and Precipitation Rankings

Jun 1st-Nov 30th Jan 1st-Nov 

30tht

Dec 2010-Nov 2012

Oklahoma 15th warmest WARMEST WARMEST

Texas 15th warmest 2nd warmest WARMEST

New Mexico 2nd warmest WARMEST WARMEST

Oklahoma 8th driest 13th driest 3rd driest

Texas 17th driest 40th driest 4th driest

New Mexico 2nd driest 2nd driest DRIEST
Contact: David Brown (david.p.brown@noaa.gov)

      Carlee Brown (cbrown@westgov.org

Southern Great Plains Region 

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook | December 2012

Regional Outlook - for Winter Season

Regional Highlight - Water Resources Remain Exceptionally Stressed

Southern Plains Partners

Left: www.twdb.state.

tx.us (as of Dec 16th)

Right and above right: 

www.climas.arizona.

edu (as of Nov 30th)

Top: www.cpc.noaa.gov 

Bottom: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd

Warm and Dry Conditions 

More Likely to Prevail

• NOAA’s official outlook for January 

– March (top) suggests an increased 

probability of warmer-than-normal 

temperatures across the entirety of 

the Southern Plains

• Experimental precipitation forecast 

guidance for the Southern Plains 

(bottom) for January – March 

points to higher probabilities of dry 

conditions in much of central and 

eastern parts of the region, with a 

chance of wetness in far western 

and southern areas

• Areas that continue to be affected 

by drought this winter could see 

challenges to wheat crops, reduced 

forage for cattle, and an active 

wildfire season

Cooperative Institute for Research in 

Environmental Sciences

cires.colorado.edu

Climate Assessment for the Southwest

climas.arizona.edu

Comisión Nacional del Agua (CONAGUA)

cna.gob.mx

DOI South Central Climate Science Center

doi.gov/csc/southcentral

National Drought Mitigation Center

drought.unl.edu

National Integrated Drought Information System

drought.gov

NOAA/NESDIS National Climatic Data Center

ncdc.noaa.gov

NOAA/NWS Southern Region

srh.noaa.gov

NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center

cpc.noaa.gov

NOAA/OAR Physical Sciences Division

esrl.noaa.gov/psd

NOAA Regional Collaboration Teams

regions.noaa.gov

Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program

southernclimate.org

Southern Regional Climate Center

srcc.lsu.edu 

State Climatologists – NM, OK, TX

stateclimate.org

Western Governors’ Association

westgov.org

Western Regional Climate Center

wrcc.dri.edu

In addition to exceedingly low reservoir levels in New Mexico (right), Chihuahua (right, 

below), and West Texas (below), most SNOTEL snow water equivalent stations in the Rio 

Grande basin were reporting below 50% of average snow conditions for mid-December 

(source: NM state climate office). 

Elsewhere in the region, the impacts of the drought on cattle herds in Oklahoma and beyond 

suggest that the 2013 U.S. calf crop is likely to be the smallest since 1942 (source: OSU 

extension).