NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM

CALIFORNIA-NEVADA 

DROUGHT OUTLOOK AUGUST 2016 

CURRENT CONDITIONS

While drought conditions in some portions of the 

region like Northern California and northeast Nevada 

have improved since this same time last year, much 

of California and Nevada is still in the midst of a 

prolonged and record-breaking drought. The central 

coast and southern regions of California continue to 

experience high temperatures and dry conditions, 

which have further exacerbated the wildfire season. 

Despite improved precipitation as compared to 

2015, the region as a whole continues to experience 

a large precipitation deficit. June of 2016 brought 

pockets of much needed precipitation to the Great 

Basin and Northern California. This in addition to 

near average snowfall over the winter contributed to 

improved reservoir levels in Northern California with 

some reaching above or nearing average storage levels. 

In 2015 California’s 8 and 5 station indices were 

both at record low levels, but in 2016 the 8-station 

index was above and the 5-station was near average. 

A new 6-station index in the Tulare Basin recorded 

levels near, but still below average for 2016. While 

these increased accumulations do not make up for the 

accumulated precipitation deficit over the last four 

years of drought they are an important improvement 

because of the importance of precipitation in the 

Sierra Nevada on water resources for the state.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK

As last year’s El Niño continues to deteriorate and 

cooler than normal sea surface temperatures (SST) are 

observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the chances 

of a La Niña developing are 57%. While the odds of 

a La Niña developing are greater than normal (by 

approximately 60%), it is important to note that there 

is also a 38% chance of a neutral year (neither El Niño 

or La Niña) (27% higher than normal).

If a La Niña does develop it is expected to be a 

relatively weak event. Each La Niña is different, but 

on average they result in 15-20% drier than average 

conditions in Southern California, modestly drier 

conditions in Southern Nevada and wetter than 

average in Northern Nevada. There is not a consistent 

signal for Northern California where much of the 

states water resources originate. This means added 

uncertainty for seasonal forecasts for the region and 

the associated impacts on water resources for the state 

as a whole. 

The effect of La Niña on winter precipitation is 

strongest in Southern California where drier than 

normal conditions tend to develop. If a typical La Niña 

does develop this region has been one of the slowest to 

recover from the current drought and a La Niña could 

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR 

FOR AUGUST 23, 2016

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR 

FOR AUGUST 25, 2015

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Drought intensity

D0: Abnormally dry

D1: Moderate drought

D2: Severe drought

D3: Extreme drought

% NORMAL PRECIPITATION

JANUARY-JULY 2016 

% NORMAL PRECIPITATION

JANUARY-DECEMBER 2015

THE MISSING YEARS:

PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OVER 

FOUR WINTERS 2011-12/14-15

Expressed in Units of Average Annual 

Precipitation. Based on PRISM. Courtesy Paul 

Iniguez, NWS Phoenix.

EXCESS DEFICIT

+ 2 YEARS -2 YEARS

www.hprcc.unl.edu
OUTLOOK: PRECIPITATION

SEPT-OCT-NOV DEC-JAN-FEB

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

OUTLOOK: TEMPERATURE

SEPT-OCT-NOV DEC-JAN-FEB

CONTRIBUTORS

Mike Anderson, California Department of Water Resources

David Pierce, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD

Kelly Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center/ Desert Research 

Institute

Amanda Sheffield, California Nevada Climate Applications Program/

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Alicia Marrs, NOAA/NIDIS

ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK

On August 24, 2016 NIDIS and its partners held a CaliforniaNevada DEWS Drought & Climate Outlook Webinar as part 

of a series of regular drought and climate outlook webinars 

designed to provide stakeholders and other interested parties 

in the region with timely information on current drought 

status and impacts, as well as a preview of current and 

developing climatic events like La Niña. 

This is part of a series of regular drought and climate outlook 

webinars designed to provide stakeholders and other 

interested parties in California and Nevada with timely 

information on current drought status and impacts, as well 

as a preview of current and developing climatic events like La 

Niña.

The presentations from this webinar can be accessed here: 

https://www.drought.gov/drought/calendar/events/californianevada-drought-early-warning-system-drought-climateoutlook-webinar-aug

potentially exacerbate those conditions. 

While driven by different factors, it is 

interesting to note that the last four years 

of drought in the region have been drier 

than an average La Niña, especially for 

the northern portions of California and 

Nevada. 

IMPACTS & UPDATES 

California: As part of Governor Brown’s 

Executive Order for Water Conservation 

(B-37-16) on August 16, 2016 the California 

State Water Resources Control Board 

(SWRCB) released the results of stress tests 

conducted by 379 water suppliers across 

the state. Assuming a repeat of the last 3 

years dry conditions, 36 water suppliers 

indicated a potential supply shortage in 

2019. Statewide water conservation efforts 

continue, in June of 2016 statewide water 

conservation was measured at 21.5%, just 

under the target of 25%. 

Since January of 2014, 122 of the 176 

projects approved for emergency funding 

by SWRCB for interim replacement 

drinking water systems have been 

executed. Most recently, the California 

Department of Water Resources began 

connecting homes in unincorporated 

East Porterville to the City of Porterville’s 

water system. This new distribution 

system will replace private wells that 

were either dry or contaminated. The 

Department of Social Services continues 

distribution of emergency food assistance 

in farmworker communities suffering high 

unemployment due to drought. Recent 

distributions were made in Fresno, Kings, 

Tulare, Kern, Merced, San Luis Obispo, 

Santa Cruz and Sutter counties. 

The prolonged and unprecedented 

drought, above average temperatures and 

exacerbated bark beetle infestations have 

resulted in vast tree mortality across large 

regions of California. In response Governor 

Brown established a Tree Mortality Task 

Force comprised of state and federal 

agencies, local governments, utilities, and 

various stakeholders that will coordinate 

emergency protective actions, and monitor 

ongoing conditions. Tree mortality has 

increase wildfire potential. CALFIRE has 

reported 4,084 fires covering 150,498 

acres in 2016 through August 20 on nonfederally managed lands. Current active 

responses are focused on three larege 

state-jurisdiction fires in or near Big Sur 

(Soberanes Fire), San Luis Obispo county 

(Chimney Fire) and Santa Barbara (Rey 

Fire). 

California actions in response to drought

Mandatory water restrictions

Voluntary water restrictions

Drought emergency/water shortage declared

Agricultural reductions

See an interactive version of this map at 

http://www.acwa.com/content/drought-map

California continues to encourage an ethic of water 

conservation. In the summer of 2016 the state campaign 

“Save Our Water” launched a new campaign “Water 

Conservation, It’s for Life” to encourage the public to 

incorporate water-efficient behaviors into their lifestyle 

for the long term. 

Other actions