ALASKA and NORTHWESTERN CANADA 

Weather and Climate Highlights and Impacts, June-August 2016; Climate Outlook October-December 2016

NORTH SLOPE: Barrow experienced a very rare thunderstorm 

on July 10, the first thunderstorm there since June 13, 2013. July 

13 and 14 brought the hottest weather of record in the Prudhoe 

Bay area, with temperatures reaching the mid 80s. 

BRISTOL BAY: Sea surface 

temperatures were at record high levels 

during the summer. 

FAIRBANKS: Heavy rains in June and July 

required the Moose Creek Flood Control 

Project on the Chena River to be activated for 

14 days, the second highest annual number of 

days since the project began operations more 

than 30 years.

ALASKA WILDFIRES: Total 

acreage burned across Alaska was near 

average for the season, with the largest 

fires in the northwest Interior. There 

were several smaller fires that were 

close to population centers and 

highways that required action, including 

the McHugh Creek Fire near Anchorage 

in late July. 

YUKON: Very quiet forest fire season 

despite 65% more lightning strikes than 

normal. Regular showers in July and 

August helped reduced fire danger and 

fire starts. Overall 52 fires compared to a 

normal of 130, burnt 21.5K hectares 

compared to a normal of 180K hectares.

FORT NELSON: Warmest summer on 

record since 1937. Average temperature of 

17.8C was over two degrees warmer than 

the normal of 15.7C.

Summer 2016 was the second warmest summer 

on record for Alaska, according to the National 

Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data 

since 1925. The average temperature for Alaska 

was 53.6°F, 3.1F° warmer than the 20th century 

average.

DEMPSTER HIGHWAY: 51mm 

of rain fell over 28 hours on August 

11-12th resulting in numerous 

washouts along the highway.

JUNEAU: Several releases 

from June through August of the 

glacial dammed lake above 

Mendenhall Lake produced 

flooding along the Mendenhall 

River. 

ANCHORAGE: Warmest 

summer on record at 

Anchorage International 

Airport. June-August 

temperature of 60.8F.

PEACE RIVER VALLEY: Heavy rainfall of 

120mm June 15 & 16 resulted in widespread 

flooding to Dawson Creek, 60 residence 

evacuations and numerous highway washouts.

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Temperature & Precipitation, June-August 2016

Summer 2016 was unusually warm over most of Alaska and northwest Canada, and in 

some places at or near record warmth. The only areas that were close to normal for the 

summer as a whole were portions of the Brooks Range in Alaska and much of the northern 

Yukon and the Northwest Territories (NWT). As usual, precipitation showed greater regional 

variability. During the summer this is partly due to the predominance of localized convective 

or showery precipitation over inland areas. Parts of the Yukon and NWT were significantly 

drier. In Alaska, drier conditions were confined to Kodiak Island, the western Alaska 

Peninsula and the Aleutians. Much of mainland Alaska was significantly wetter than normal. 

In northwest Canada, wet areas were found widely from northern NWT to parts of northern 

British Columbia. 

Source: NOAA and ECCC 2

Source: NOAA and ECCC 

July 27, High water above the Moose Creek flood control project near Fairbanks. Heavy rain in 

June and July required flow on Chena River to be restricted on 14 days, the second greatest 

annual days of flood control in more than 35 years of operation. Photo credit: Christy Splechter, 

NOAA/NESDIS

Above

Normal

Near

Normal

Near Normal

Wet

Wet

Wet

Dry

Dry

Dry

2.33”/59.2 mm

3.23”/82.0 mm

3.61”/91.7 mm

6.28”/159.5 mm

9.82”/249.4 mm

10.13”/257.3 mm

4.56”/115,8 mm

5.02”/127,4 mm

4.35”/110,6 mm

5.60”/142,3 mm

3.96”/100,5 mm

4.17”/106,0 mm

9.49”/241,0 mm

4.37”/118,2 mm

13.59”/345.2 mm

13.53”/343.7 mm

27.40”/696.0 mm

4.49”/114.0 mm

9.64”/244.9 mm

9.22”/234.2 mm

10.64”/270.3 mm

7.75”/196.9 mm

8.59”/218.2 mm

7.19”/182.6 mm

40.4°F/4.7°C

45.8°F/7.7°C

55.0°F/12.8°C

51.6°F/10.9°C

58.1°F/14.5°C

57.7°F/14.3°C

58.1°F/14.5°C

57.5°F/14.2°C

60.8°F/16.0°C

57.7°F/14.3°C

61.5°F/16.4°C

57.9°F/14.4°C

54.6°F/12.6°C

56.3°F/13.5°C

58.2°F/14.6°C

59.7°F/15.4°C

53.6°F/12.0°C

54.9°F/12.7°C

60.1°F/15.6°C

63.1°F/17.3°C

63.5°F/17.5°C

60.6°F/17.8°C

58.3°F/14.6°C

55.0°F/12.8°C

59.0°F/15.0°C

Atigun River, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, immediately following river breakup: June 2016. 

Photo credit: Brian Brettschneider

10.0”/254,4 mm

Wet
Ice Concentration Comparison, September 2015 vs September 2016

Rankings of Temperature Records: 

A very warm summer across Alaska and Northwestern Canada

Now that the sea ice minimum has occurred, it is a fitting time to take a quick look back at how the melt back pattern in Alaska waters compares with the pattern from last year. During spring of 2016 we had a large fracture event in the

Beaufort Sea basin which led to a rapid breakup in the southern Beaufort Sea. In addition, through the summer of 2016 we never had the meteorological forcing over the Chukchi Sea to clear the sea ice floes from the Hanna Shoal region off

the NW coast of Alaska. Contrast this pattern with the summer of 2015, where the Chukchi Sea was first to clear, while sea ice floes remained grounded along the outer banks of the barrier islands in the Beaufort Sea.

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Ice melt in the southern Beaufort Sea through the summer months continued rapidly after its early season 

breakup. Near to record level low ice extent coverage has been seen throughout the entire summer. 

On September 10th the Ice Extent was 4.14 million square kilometers, which ties 2007 for the second lowest 

extent on record and is only above the minimum record coverage for the region in. (Source: NSIDC)

Since 2002, every September ice extent minimum has been below the long-term average (1981-2010), and the 

last 10 record lows have all occurred since 2005. Arctic sea ice minimums are declining at a rate of 13.4% per 

decade, while the maximums are declining at a rate of 3.2% per decade. Overall, the ice extent is shrinking 

between 3-4% per decade. (Source: NOAA) (Sources: NOAA, ECCC)

2016: A Very Warm Summer Across 

Alaska and Northwestern Canada
Precipitation Outlook: Oct–Dec 2016

Temperature Outlook: Oct–Dec 2016 The Return of The Blob

Sea surface temperature (SST) departure from normal. Source: Environment and Climate

Change Canada.

The graphics above show the most likely of the three possible categories

(significantly above normal, near normal and significantly below normal) for

the three months October through December, with white for areas with no

change from the climatological chances (33.3%). This is derived from the

more than 100 members of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

project. Significantly warmer than normal temperatures are favored over

virtually all of Northwest North America. The highest chances of a warmerthan-normal fall are along the coastline, reflecting continued above normal

sea surface temperatures and reduced autumn sea ice coverage.

Precipitation shows only a weak tilt toward significantly above normal for the

three months, primarily over western Alaska and parts of the NWT. NMME

calibrated probabilities are accessed through and produced by CPC

Content and graphics prepared in partnership with the Western Region Climate 

Center, NOAA National Weather Service Alaska Region, and Environment and 

Climate Change Canada. 

ALASKA REGION PARTNERS: Western Region Climate Center, Alaska Climate 

Research Center, Alaska Climate Science Center, Cryosphere Today, NOAA / 

NWS Weather Forecast Offices, NOAA / NESDIS / NCEI, Scenarios Network for 

Alaska + Arctic Planning. 

NOAA ALASKA REGION CONTACTS: 

JAMES PARTAIN 

james.partain@noaa.gov

RICK THOMAN richard.thoman@noaa.gov

ncei.noaa.gov • #regionalclimateoutlooks

BRIAN BRETTSCHNEIDER: WRCC 

brbrettschneider@alaska.edu

WESTERN CANADA PARTNER: 

Environment and Climate Change 

Canada (ECCC). 

ECCC CONTACTS: 

KEN KWOK ken.kwok@canada.ca

MATT MACDONALD 

matt.macdonald@canada.ca 

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Sea surface temperatures over the

Pacific Ocean play an important role

in characterizing temperatures over

Alaska and Northwestern Canada.

The chart to the left shows the

average sea surface temperature

(SST) anomalies over a 30 day period

from August 18th to September 16th

2016. In other words, we can see how

warm (shades of red) or cold (shades

of blue) the ocean is compared to

normal.

The large area of abnormally warm

water that appeared over the

northeastern Pacific during the fall of

2013 and became known as “the Blob”

returned this summer after a brief

hiatus last winter. The Blob is a huge

section of water that is two to three

degrees warmer than normal and

measures roughly 1,600km (1,000mi)

across by 1,600km (1,000mi) north to

south and is estimated to reach depths of 100 metres (330ft). Researchers believe the Blob forms during

enhanced high pressure and reduced storm activity resulting in lighter winds and less mixing of the upper

ocean. The undisturbed water is able to absorb incoming solar radiation and gradually warm. The Blob

appeared to have dissipated this past winter with the return of regular storms but has now resurfaced after a

quiet summer. The Blob has recently expanded further north towards Alaska and is inevitably playing an

important role in the warmer-than-normal fall forecast.

Meanwhile, down along the equator where El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are observed, waters

have shifted to colder-than-normal conditions. Initial forecasts for a strong La Niña developing this fall have

moderated and neutral or slightly colder than normal conditions are now favored. It’s important to point out that

the largest ENSO impacts over Alaska and northwest Canada are over the winter.