Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisoff (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|June 2014

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Eastern Region

June 2014

National - Significant Events for March–May 2014

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies 

Regional - Climate Overview for March–May 2014

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

March 1–May 31, 2014

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

March 1–May 31, 2014

Departure from Normal Snowfall (in.)

March 1-31, 2014

March

April

Highlights for the East

When Buffalo, NY, experienced blizzard conditions 

during a mid-March storm, it marked the first 

time the city has had blizzard conditions twice in a 

winter since recordkeeping began. March 25–26, 

a powerful nor’easter brought snow, wind gusts to 

83 mph, and blizzard conditions for up to 7 hours to 

coastal Massachusetts and Maine.

More than a dozen tornadoes touched down in 

North Carolina and Virginia in April. The tornadoes 

caused extensive damage to hundreds of homes 

and structures. An EF-3 tornado on April 25 was the 

first EF-3 of 2014 and the latest occurring (into the 

calendar year) EF-3 or stronger tornado since 1950.

Rain and melting snow caused considerable 

flooding in upstate New York and New England 

in mid-April. In late April, heavy rain caused flash 

flooding that closed hundreds of roads from 

Washington, DC, to New York City.

From mid to late May, multiple rounds of severe 

weather hit the region. Extreme rainfall caused 

flash flooding that significantly damaged buildings 

and roads. Thirteen tornadoes, straight-line winds, 

and pea to baseball sized hail also caused damage. 

An insurance agency in South Carolina received 

7,450 claims due to Memorial Day weekend storms. 

Snow totals ranged from well-above normal 

to well-below normal in March. Northern New 

England, northern New York, and parts of 

the Mid-Atlantic were snowier than normal, 

receiving an extra 12-24 inches. In fact, 

Washington Dulles, DC, had its snowiest March 

on record. The site saw 19.8 inches of snow 

during the month, surpassing the old record 

of 15.5 inches set in 1993. On the other hand, 

southern New England, southern New York, 

and Pennsylvania saw below-normal snowfall, 

receiving 8–16 inches less than normal. Most of 

Ohio and the Carolinas were within 4 inches of 

normal snowfall. 

The Eastern Region wrapped up spring with 

106% of normal precipitation. While the 

majority of states were within 10% of normal, 

Maryland had its 15th wettest spring since 

1895. During March, the region saw 92% of 

normal precipitation. Ohio had its 18th driest 

March on record, while Rhode Island had its 

17th wettest. April ended at 116% of normal 

for the region, with three states ranking this 

April among their top 20 wettest. Washington 

Dulles, DC, saw its wettest April on record. As 

for May, the region received 106% of normal 

precipitation. Maryland had its 18th wettest 

May on record.

The average spring temperature in the Eastern 

Region was 48.6°F, 1.5°F below normal. March 

ranked eighth coldest on record for the region, 

with a departure of -6.3°F. Fifteen of 16 states 

ranked the month among their 20 coldest, with 

Vermont having its coldest March on record. 

Caribou, ME, and Washington Dulles, DC, were 

also record cold in March. The region ended 

April at 0.1°F above normal, with most states 

within 1.0°F of normal. May brought warmer 

weather, with the region 1.5°F above normal 

for the month. While temperatures were below 

normal regionally, globally March was the 

fourth warmest on record, and April tied for 

record warmest. 

The contiguous U.S. temperature for spring was 51.1°F, 0.2°F above the 20th century average. Spring 

precipitation for the contiguous U.S. totaled 8.01 inches, 0.07 inches below average. The U.S. Climate 

Extremes Index (an index that tracks extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought across the U.S.) was 

near average for spring. On a regional scale, however, one-day precipitation extremes were record or nearrecord high in the East. Contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand during spring was 6% above 

average. 

March Snowfall

Normals based on 1981–2010
Regional - Impacts for March–May 2014

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

     Samantha Borisoff (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|June 2014 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Summer 2014 Eastern Region Partners

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Climatic Data Center

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

National Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Offices, Atlantic

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Coastal Services Center and National Centers for Ocean 

and Coastal Science

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov 

NOAA Research, Climate Program Office and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.oar.noaa.gov

NOAA National Sea Grant Office

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantic, South Atlantic, and Great

Lakes Regional Collaboration Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

www.nohrsc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Southeast Regional Climate Center

www.sercc.com

National Integrated Drought Information

System

www.drought.gov

Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments

www.cisa.sc.edu

Consortium on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperative Institute for North Atlantic Research

www.cinar.org

Eastern Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org 

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Three-Month Climate 

Outlooks

El Niño Outlook

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (°C)

June 8-14, 2014

A

Climate Change

The third National Climate Assessment, released in early May, outlined the impacts of climate 

change in the U.S. According to the report, "The Northeast has experienced a greater recent 

increase in extreme precipitation than any other region in the U.S.; between 1958 and 2010, 

the Northeast saw more than a 70% increase in the amount of precipitation falling in very 

heavy events." Extreme precipitation, heat waves, sea level rise, and coastal and river flooding 

have already stressed and will increasingly compromise the Northeast's aging infrastructure. 

Ten of the 12 Northeast states have released, or are working on, statewide climate adaptation 

plans. Along with sea-level rise and extreme heat, Virginia and the Carolinas are also prone 

to floods and drought. These climate hazards, along with population growth and land use 

changes, may create challenges for maintaining an adequate water supply and water quality. 

Ocean Conditions

While recent sea surface temperatures have been cooler, 2013 temperatures were the second 

warmest since 1982. In fact, from 2004 to 2013, temperatures in the Gulf of Maine increased

faster than 99.9% of the global ocean. The ecosystem responded to these unusual conditions 

in unexpected ways. The spring 2013 phytoplankton bloom was among the smallest in the 

satellite record (since 1998), and this may have impacted the zooplankton community. The 

phytoplankton community recovered and was back to historical conditions in the fall. One of 

the notable trends in the oceanographic conditions in the Gulf of Maine is a later appearance 

of fall-like temperatures.

Agriculture

Spring arrived later than normal for most of the region (see graphic to left) and the slow start 

took a toll on agriculture. A freeze in late March killed around 30% of South Carolina's peach 

crop, causing more than $27 million in revenue losses. According to a USDA Crop Report, as 

of April 30 only 17% of potatoes had been planted in Delaware compared to the five-year 

average of 71%, and in Pennsylvania, only 6% of cherry trees were in full bloom versus the 

five-year average of 76%. By mid-May, strawberry crops had been delayed one to three weeks 

regionwide, causing a shortened berry-picking season. While conditions improved by late May, 

some crops remained behind schedule.

El Niño is characterized by unusually warm 

sea surface temperatures in the equatorial 

Pacific Ocean. While El Niño conditions remain 

neutral, these waters have been warming. 

In early June, NOAA indicated chances for El 

Niño development were 70% during summer 

and 80% during fall and winter. El Niño can 

influence weather patterns and the hurricane 

season. For example, El Niño causes increased 

vertical wind shear, can strengthen easterly 

trade winds, and can increase atmospheric 

stability—all of which hinder hurricane 

development and strength. 

Valid for July–September 2014

EC: Equal chances of above-, 

near-, or below-normal

A: Above-normal 

33/40: Probability of above- or 

below-normal temperatures

Probability of above-normal

Southern parts of 

the region have an 

increased chance 

of seeing abovenormal temperatures 

from July through 

September, according 

to the Climate Predication Center's outlook. 

Elsewhere, equal chances of above-, near-, or 

below-normal temperatures were forecast.

The precipitation outlook for July through 

September indicates equal chances of above-, 

near-, or below-normal precipitation for the 

entire region. 

2014 Atlantic Hurricane 

Season Outlook

NOAA is predicting a below- or near-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season with a 70% chance 

of each of the following: 8–13 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–2 major hurricanes. While 

El Niño was the main driver of the outlook, it also took into account the predicted near- to 

below-normal sea surface temperatures and current conditions in the Atlantic hurricane main 

development region. 

A

33

40

The map shows the number of days later than normal 

of the onset of Spring 2014 based on average leafout dates of two honeysuckle species and one lilac 

species. (Reference: Schwartz, M. D., T. R. Ault, and J. L. 

Betancourt, 2013: Spring onset variations and trends in the 

continental United States: past and regional assess- ment 

using temperature-based indices. International Journal of 

Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.3625.)

Spring 2014 Onset Anomaly

(number of days)

From Ault et al., (in prep.)

EC