Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Northeast Region

September 2018

National Signifcant Events – June–August 2018 

Regional Climate Overview – June–August 2018

Temperature Departure from Normal (°F)

June 1-August 31, 2018

Percent of Normal (%)

June 1-August 31, 2018

Drought in the Northeast

U.S. Drought Monitor

September 20, 2018

Northeast Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|Sept 2018

htps://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Contact: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Jessica Spaccio (jlr98@cornell.edu)

Severe weather on June 13 spawned two EF-2 tornadoes in Pennsylvania, 

in Bradford and Luzerne counties. The state had an EF-2 tornado last year 

as well, and has the highest average number of tornadoes in the Northeast. 

The storm also left trees and wires down, overturned cars, and collapsed 

multiple buildings and storefronts. Severe weather moved through much 

of the Northeast on June 18, and strong winds caused over 60,000 people 

in New Hampshire to lose power. Also on that day, an EF-0 tornado briefy 

touched down in Lincoln, NH, and a microburst created a path of damage 

that was over a mile long in Waitsfeld, VT that brought wind gusts up to 80 

mph, which downed dozens of trees and caused over 16,000 customers to 

lose power in the area. From July 1-4, high humidity along with unusually 

warm temperatures throughout the region, resulted in heat indices over 

110°F in some areas, prompting Excessive Heat Warnings to be issued by 

the National Weather Service. On July 10, severe weather produced hail

up to one inch in diameter in Maine, damaging cars and windows. Wind 

damage and fallen trees were also reported that day in parts of Maine and 

New Hampshire. An EF-0 tornado downed numerous trees and power lines 

in Queens, NY, on August 2; this was the frst tornado in Queens County 

since 2012. Heat waves throughout August led to heat advisories being 

issued and record warm overnight lows. Summer overall was hot and felt 

even hotter due to the extremely humid conditions. Syracuse, NY, had a 

record number of hours that the dewpoint reached or exceeded 70°F. 

Selected U.S. Signifcant Climate Anomalies Highlights for the Northeast

and Events for August and Summer 2018

June

Precipitation

It was the sixth warmest summer for the 

Northeast and the record warmest for 

Rhode Island. In June, all twelve states had 

near-normal temperatures, with the month 

fnishing at 0.3°F below normal. July was 

2.1°F above normal, and all states were 

warmer than normal. Caribou, ME, and 

Burlington, VT, had their warmest months 

ever recorded. August was 3.4°F warmer 

than normal, the region's second warmest 

August on record. Six sites had their 

warmest August on record.

Summer precipitation was 122% of 

normal for the region and was the 

wettest on record for Pennsylvania. June

precipitation was near normal, with 103% 

of normal. July precipitation was 128% 

of normal. Pennsylvania had its wettest 

July on record, and Maryland had its 2nd 

wettest July. August precipitation was 

135% of normal. Concord, NH, had its 

wettest August on record.

Dryness expanded throughout June in New 

England. By the middle of July, 12% of the 

Northeast was experiencing moderate drought 

conditions, and by the end of July, 9% of the 

region was in moderate drought. With little 

rain and above-normal temperatures, severe 

drought was introduced in northeastern New 

York, northern Vermont, and coastal Maine 

in early September. By mid-September, 

the U.S. Drought Monitor showed 5% of the 

region in a severe or moderate drought and 

14% as abnormally dry. 

CT, DE, MA, NH, and RI each had a record 

warm August. Overnight lows were 

record warm for much of the Northeast.

The contiguous U.S. had an average summer temperature 

of 73.5°F, 2.1°F above the 20th century average. Average 

temperatures for June, July, and August were 71.5°F, 3.0°F 

above average, 75.5°F, 1.9°F above average, and 73.6°F, 1.5°F 

above average respectively. It was the third warmest June on 

record. Globally, it was the ffth warmest June on record and the 

fourth warmest July on record. During summer, the contiguous 

U.S. received 8.95 inches of precipitation, slightly above 

average. June, July, and August precipitation totaled 3.08 inches, 

0.15 inch above average, 2.80 inches, 0.02 inch above average, 

and 2.99 inches, 0.37 inch above average, respectively.

July
Regional Impacts and Updates – June–August 2018

Drought

Lancaster County, PA, on August 13. 

Credit: John Banghoff, NWS CTP 

Regional Outlook – Autumn 2018

Temperature and Precipitation Atlantic Hurricane Season

Probability of above normal (A) 

Northeast Regional Partners

Northeast Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|Sept 2018

htps://www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

Flooding

Over 75 public water suppliers enforced varying degrees of water bans in locations throughout Massachusetts, 

including a water ban in Northampton, MA, that came into effect starting June 15 as a result of the increasingly 

dry conditions. During July, reduced harvests and heat stress were both causing problems for growers as 

moderately dry conditions continued to impact New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. Low river levels and 

warm water temperatures were causing stress for trout in Vermont. By the end of July, moderate drought had 

spread throughout portions of northern New England and northern New York. With little rain and above-normal 

temperatures, severe drought was introduced in northeastern New York, northern Vermont, and coastal Maine 

in early September. Dry conditions led to small fruit and losses of blueberries in parts of Vermont. In addition, 

farmers in parts of that state were weeks behind in planting fall cover crops. There were fewer cases 

of Lyme disease in New England, possibly due to the hot and dry conditions. 

Heavy rain during the second half of summer led to fooding in many states. Dulles Airport, VA, 

received 5.02 inches of rain on July 21. Dunkirk, MD, received 16.55 inches of rain over the span of 

fve days, ending on July 26. Heavy rain from July 23-27 caused some creeks and streams to rise up 

to seven feet in an hour, which led to fooding, water rescues, road damage, and compromised home 

foundations. Knoebel’s and Hershey Park in Pennsylvania had to close park operations for a period 

of time. In early August, waters rose 25 feet above the foodplain in central Pennsylvania. On August 

11-12, heavy rains fooded streets and homes on the North Shore of Massachusetts; Lynn, MA, had 

8.14 inches. Over 100 homes were evacuated in Brick, NJ, beginning on August 13th. Road closures 

were reported along coastal New Jersey and in Seneca County, NY, that same week as rivers started to overfow their banks, prompting 

a state of emergency to be issued in many of those areas. Flooding in Lancaster County, PA, on August 21 resulted in closed parks and 

roadways as streets became fooded. There was in increased number of West Nile virus cases in the region due to extreme rainfall and 

warmer-than-normal temperaturers. Boston communities raised the risk level to high after four people were confrmed with the virus.

ENSO

Normal October–December average 

temperatures range from the low 30s in 

northern New England to the low 50s in the 

Mid-Atlantic. NOAA's Climate Prediction 

Center (CPC) is calling for an increased 

chance of above-normal temperatures (left 

map). The precipitation outlook calls for equal 

chances of below-, near-, or above-normal 

precipitation (right map). Normal October–

December precipitation ranges from less than 

8 inches in portions of western New York and 

eastern West Virginia to more than 14 inches 

in portions of New England and southeastern 

and northern New York.

According to CPC, the chance of El Niño is 

50–55% during fall and increasing to 65–70% 

during winter.

NOAA's 2018 updated Atlantic hurricane 

outlook indicates a 60% chance this season 

will be below normal, a 30% chance it will 

be near-normal, and a 10% chance it will be 

more active than normal. By mid-September 

there have been 10 named storms of which 

5 were hurricanes. The likelihood of a 

below-normal season is due to the El Niño 

forecast, cooler-than-average sea surface 

temperatures, and strong wind shear. On 

September 14, Hurricane Florence made 

landfall on the east coast as a signifcant 

hurricane. 

Early-Sept CPC/IRI Probabilistc ENSO 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

offces including:

NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental 

Information

NWS, Eastern Region

NWS, Climate Prediction Center

NWS, National Operational Hydrologic Remote 

Sensing Center

NMFS, Fisheries Science Centers and Regional 

Offce, Atlantic

NOS, Offce for Coastal Management

OAR, Climate Program Offce and Geophysical 

Fluid Dynamics Lab

OAR, National Sea Grant Offce

NOAA's North Atlantic and Great Lakes Regional 

Collaboration Teams

And the following other offces:

Northeast Regional Climate Center

National Integrated Drought Information System

Consortium of Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic 

Research

Northeast Region State Climatologists

Mid-Atlantic RISA

Irrigation intake in Burlington, VT 

Credit: Rachael Schattman, USDA 

Contact: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Jessica Spaccio (jlr98@cornell.edu)