1



### WRAP TECHNICAL SUPPORT SYSTEM WEB SITE DESCRIPTION

November 16, 2009 draft



### OVERVIEW

The Technical Support System (TSS) ( http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/ ) has been developed by the Western Regio nal Air Partnership (WRAP) to provide a single portal to technical data and analytical results prepared by WRAP Forums and Workgroups. The data, results, an methods displayed on the TSS are intended to support the air quality planning needs

of western stat e and tribes, and will be maintained and updated to support both the implementation of regional haze plans and other Western air quality analysis and management

needs. The concept for the TSS is based on the final recommendations of the Attribution of

Haz e Phase I project ( http://wrapair.org/forums/aoh/ars1/report.html ).

The primary purpose of the TSS is to provide key summary analytical results and methods documentation for the required tec hnical elements of the Regional Haze Rule, to support the preparation, completion, evaluation, and implementation of the regional haze implementation plans to improve visibility in Class I areas. The TSS provides technical results prepared using a regional approach, includ ing summaries and analyse s of the comprehensive datasets used to identify the sources and regions contributing to regional haze in the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) region.

The secondary purpose of the TSS is to be the one

- sto p

- shop for access, visualization, analysis, and retrieval of the technical data and regional analytical results prepared by WRAP Forums and Workgroups in support of regional haze planning in the West. The TSS specifically

summarizes results and consolidate s information about air quality monitoring, meteorological and receptor modeling data analyses, emissions inventories and models, and gridded air quality/visibility regional modeling simulations. These large and diverse data sets are integrated for applica tion to air quality planning purposes by prioritizing and refining key information and results into explanatory tools.

The TSS integrates a number of different information resources, or data nodes, under one

web

- based umbrella. The data nodes currently supporting the TSS include:

Visibility Information Exchange Web System (VIEWS)

– VIEWS is an online exchange of air quality data, research, and ideas designed to support the Regional Haze Rule enacted by the U.S. EPA to reduce regional haze and improve vi sibility in national parks and wilderness areas.

Causes of Haze Assessment (CoHA)

– The CoHA web site is an online report that answers questions about the chemical components that cause regional haze, relationships of haze to meteorology, the emissions th at cause haze, and the effects of previous and future emissions reductions on the worst and best visibility levels.

Emissions Data Management System (EDMS)

– The WRAP EDMS is an emission inventory data warehouse and web

- based application that provides a c onsistent approach to regional emissions tracking to meet the requirements for State Implementation Plan (SIP) and Tribal Implementation Plan (TIP) development and periodic review and updates.

Fire Emissions Tracking System (FETS)

– The FETS is a database with a web interface for planned and unplanned fire events. Users can view fire data on

- screen2 with a mapping tool and query the database for downloads of data into model

- ready

formats and CSV or DBF formats.

WRAP Regional Modeling Center (RMC)

– The WRA P RMC assists State and Tribal agencies in conducting regional haze analyses over the western U.S. by operating regional scale, three

- dimensional air quality models that simulate the emission, transformation, and transport of pollutants and the effects on visibility in

WRAP Class I Areas.

The value of the TSS is that it takes each of these separate data nodes a nd incorporates

the ir key data sets, analysis results, and documentation . These key elements are presented in a straightforward, easily understand able manner. Planners and analysts requiring in

- depth information beyond that summarized on the TSS can access the data nodes directly from the Projects page ( http://vista.cira.colo state.edu/TSS/Projects/Default.aspx ) on the TSS H ome page.

The following sections describe the major TSS web pages and provide some insight into how to best apply the analytical tools available.



### HOME PAGE

The TSS Home page is accessible at: http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/

. Navigation from this page includes the left

- hand navigation bar (available from most of the TSS pages, and can be

hidden if desired ) and the buttons with yellow arrows in the center of the page. S ystem log

- in

and user account options are readily accessible, though users are not required to log in. TSS

related news items are also featured on the Home page. Figure 1 shows the layout of the Home

page.

Figure 1. The T SS Home Page.3



### RESOURCES PAGE

The Resources page is the gateway to the site’s analytical tools and methods

documentation . From this page the user can choose to investigate the following topics:

Haze Planning

– This page leads to a variety of data and analysis review tools designed to support RHR reasonable progress demonstrations. Detailed descriptions of these tools are presented in the following section. Methods documentation for these tools and analyses can be found on the specific data type pages as indicated in the following bullets.

Monitoring

– This page leads to monitoring data review tools and descriptive documents, including: A detailed overview of the IMPROVE monitoring network;

An overview of WRAP data substitutions methods use for sites not meeting RHR data completeness guidelines;

An overview of how natural conditions were estimated for use with the revised IMPROVE algorithm; A key to mapping parameters across monitoring, modeling, and emissions disciplines; and Related monitoring data l inks.

Emissions

– This page leads to emissions data review tools and descriptive documents, including:

An overview of emissions inventor y and processing activities; Individual documents for each type of emissions inventory prepared for WRAP ; A key to mapp ing parameters across monitoring, modeling, and emissions disciplines; and

Related emissions data links.

Modeling

– This page leads to modeling review tools and descriptive documents, including:

A detailed overview of WRAP’s air quality modeling;

An overv iew of WRAP’s meteorological back trajectory modeling ; A key to mapping parameters across monitoring, modeling, and emissions disciplines; and Related modeling links.

Apportionment

– This page leads to source apportionment analysis review tools and

descri ptive documents, including: An overview of the PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) air quality modeling technique used to trace Sulfur/SOx and Nitrate/NOx from source regions to Class I areas; An overview of the Organic Aerosol Tracer technique used to distinguish between various types of organic aerosol modeled to arrive at Class I areas; An overview of the Weighted Emissions Potential (WEP) technique, a qualitative analysis to investigate the potential for specific regional emissi ons to impact

Class I areas; and A key to mapping parameters across monitoring, modeling, and emissions disciplines.

Each of the documentation pages contains a link to the “Key to Monitoring

- Modeling

Emissions Mapping” support file ( http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/help/parameterkey.aspx ). This file summarized the often complex relationships among real

- world visibility

- related parameters and parameters defined by the IMPROVE program, the CMAQ an d CAMx models,4

and WRAP emissions inventories. Specific parameter types, abbreviations, equations, and comments are presented. As an example, c onsider the following relationships among these disciplines for carbon species :

Organic Carbon (OC) is measure d by IMPROVE, but not modeled or directly represented in emissions inventories. Organic Mass (OM or OMC ) , which is the sum total of all primary and secondary organic compounds, is calculated by IMPROVE from the OC measurement. Both

models contain terms fo r specific OM constituents. OM is not directly represented in

emissions inventories. Primary Organic Aerosol (POA) , which represents only organic carbon compounds

emitted directly as particulates, cannot be distinguished in the IMPROVE

measurements. Howe ver, both the models and the emissions inventories account for this portion of the total OM. Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) , which are emitted in gaseous form but can condense to form particul ate organic compounds, also can not be directly accounted

for b y IMPROVE. VOCs are tracked in the models and emissions inventories.



### HAZE PLANNING PAGE

– Reasonable Progress Demonstration

The Regional Haze Rule sets a 60 year timeline for states to improve visibility within mandatory Federal Class I areas from “ba seline” (2000

- 04) levels to “natural conditions” by 2064. States are required to show that “reasonable progress” is expected to be made toward this goal over the course of intermediary planning periods. Reasonable progress is defined both in

terms of wha t can be measured and projected using current scientific understanding and , when reviewing controls for existing facilities, specific compliance

- related statutory factors. These factors are not addressed by the TSS, but include:

Cost of compliance

Time n ecessary for compliance Energy and non

- air quality environmental impacts of compliance Remaining useful life of any existing source subject to such requirements

Regional Haze Rule guidance documents outline methods for tracking progress
( http://www.epa.gov/ttn/oarpg/t1/memoranda/rh_tpurhr_gd.pdf )

, calculating natural conditions
( http://www.epa.gov/ttn/oar pg/t1/memoranda/rh_envcurhr_gd.pdf ), and using model results to project future visibility impacts ( http://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/guidance/guide/final

- 03

- pm

- rh

guidance. pdf

). Using these guidance documents as a starting point, WRAP has developed a process that addresses the technical aspects of determining reasonable progress. This process is supported by several documents which can be found on the Planning Information Exchange page ( http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Planning/InformationExchange.aspx )

.

RHR guidance requires reasonable progress to be tracked using the Haze Index
(d eciviews), which is determined as a logarithmic transformation of the sum of all light extinction terms in the IMPROVE light extinction algorithm. This method does not provide information regarding the relative contributions of individual species’ extinct ion to overall visibility. In addition, some species (sulfate and nitrate) originate from largely anthropogenic sources, while others originate from a mixture of both anthropogenic and natural sources. Therefore, WRAP adopted the additional method of tra cking individual species’ extinction contributions in a manner similar to that outlined in RHR guidance for total deciview.

The major steps in WRAP’s recommended technical analyses for reasonable progress

demonstration that are supported by the TSS Haze Planning tools include the following f or each

Class I area :5 Determine B aseline (2000

- 04) V isibility C onditions ( d eciview s and species’
extinction) using the revised IMPROVE algorithm , following RHR guidance to select the 20% worst and best visibility days , and using WRAP

- approved substituted data when appropriate.

Determine N atu ral C onditions (d eciview s and species’ extinction) , based on the alternate method developed specifically for the revised IMPROVE algorithm.

Determine the G lide S lope between B asel ine and N atural C onditions ( deciview s and species’ extinction) , and identify the glide slope value in 2018.

P roject 2018 visibility u sing relative change between B as eline and 2018 modeling

results ( for deciviews and species’ extinction) . (WRAP defined th ree methods to calculate visibility projections, the EPA default method and two alternate methods.)

C ompar e the 2018 projected values to the 2018 glide slope values. The deciview comparison is required by the RHR. The species comparisons provide informa tion on the degree to which progress is expected to be made for individual pollutants. This progress is closely tied to whether emissions sources responsible for the pollutants are anthropogenic or natural.

Review the change in emissions from the B aselin e to the 2018 inventories. This can be done on a regional, state, and county level. Specific analysis requirements are determined by the nature of the visibility impacts at and the location of the Class I

area.

Review the source region contributions of modeled pollutants to Class I areas

. This analysis should facilitate conversations between states where a shared impact on visibility exists. This analysis also identifies international source contributions beyond a state’ s jurisdiction

. There are two m ethods for this review:

The RMC performed the PSAT analysis , which tracked emissions responsible for sulfate and nitrate aerosols from source regions (WRAP states, Pacific
offshore, Canada, Mexico, CENRAP, Eastern U.S., and boundary conditions ) to

Class I areas. This is the most reliable attribution method p erformed on WRAP regional haze data.

The second method is the WEP analysis , which combined emissions densities with back trajectory residence times to evaluate the potential for emissions to impact Cl ass I areas. T his method did not model atmospheric chemistry or deposition , so its results should be interpreted qualitatively.



### HAZE PLANNING PAGE

– Data Review Tools

The Haze Planning page integrates all of WRAP’s major haze

- related data sets and

pro vides review tools designed to support a reasonable progress demonstration. The following subsections describe how to use the tools and provide help in interpreting results.

Important note: Some WRAP IMPROVE monitoring locations did not collect suffici ent data to achieve Regional Haze Rule data completeness requirements or to fully populate the selected modeling year, 2002. For the purpose of addressing regional haze , data substitutions were performed for these sites. All Haze Planning data review too ls use these substituted data sets, which are different than the standard IMPROVE data sets found on the VIEWS web site.6

For more information on the substituted data sets see “WRAP Data Substitution Methods”
( http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/docs/wrap/Monitoring/WRAP_Data_Substitution_Methods_April

_2007.doc ).

Site Selection

Upon entering the Haze Planning page, the user i s presented with a map showing the WRAP region, the WRAP Federal Class I areas, and the locations of IMPROVE monitoring

sites. All currently operating or historically significant IMPROVE sites are available for selection, but not all tools are populated with data from outsi de the WRAP region. Figure 2 is annotated to identify k ey items and options on the Site Map . The controls along the top of the map are used to change the map view or select regions for analysis. Tool tips, associated with some of the map controls, appea r on the screen by hovering over the control icons. The map

controls include:

Map Mode tools

– These controls include zoom and center options for the map. When zoomed in sufficiently, site, Class I area, and tribal names become visible.

Select tools

– These controls allow for selection of single site or entire state (Select Object tool )

, multiple site s (Select Box tool )

, and clearing a previous selection (Clear Selection tool).

Regional Views

– Various pre

- defined zoomed views are available. The defau lt view

is WRAP.

Tribal Lands

– WRAP tribal lands can be added to the map. Pre

- defined zoomed

views are available for selected tribes. WRAP tribal lands have been associated with the most representative IMPROVE monitor s for analysis on the TSS.

Monito ring sites can also be selected from the Site List. The Site List is hidden by default and must be opened to be use d . Figure 3 is annotated to identify key options available. Multiple sites can be selected, and the list can be sorted by any of the headi ngs. For example, clicking on the “State” heading sorts the sites by state.

Tool Selection

Below the Site Map and Site List are four (4) buttons, each of which opens a series of tools. Figure 4 shows these choices. Clicking on the “Class I Area Summa ry Table” opens a tool to generate a summary table populated with key Class I area results for demonstrating reasonable progress. Figure 5 shows the tool options associated with the “Monitoring” button. Clicking on the “Emissions and Source Apportionment ” and “Modeling” buttons reveals tool options for those data sets.

The many options listed in Figure 5 represent only two distinct tools: a Time Series tool

and a Glide Slope tool. Within these tools the user can select many options for display.

Howev er, since the Regional Haze Rule and WRAP’s method for demonstrating reasonable progress requires very specific choices, these choices have been pre

- selected as indicated in this

list.7

Figure 2

. Haze Planning page site selection map.8

Figure 3. Haze Planning page site selection list.

Figure 4. Tool selection panel on the Haze Planning page.9

Figure 5. Monitoring data tools. Clicking on the “Emissions and Source Apportionment” and “Modeling” buttons reveals tool options for those data sets.10

CLASS I AREA SUMMARY TABLE

The Class I Area Summary Table calculates metrics to support regional haze analysis by species, total light extinction, and deciview. The results that are presented with this tool are derived from many of the other Haze Planning tools. Note that only one table for one Class I Area can be generated at a time. Attempting to generate tables for multiple sites at once will

result in an error.

The Class I Area Summary Table tool can be found by clicking on the “Class I Area Summary Table” button on the Haze Planning page. Operations for the Control Panel selection

boxes are shown in Figure 6 and described below:

Selection of Days

– This option allows the user to select either the Worst or Best 20% IMPROVE days.

Scen ario

– This option allows the user to select among pre

- defined pairs of emissions/modeling scenarios.

RRF Calculation Method

– This option allows the user to select among WRAP’s three methods for calculating relative response factors (RRFs). More informa tion about this choice can be found under the “MODELING: Visibility Projections Tool” description below.

Create Table

– Once all selections have been made, click this button to generate the summary table. It will generally take about 30 seconds to gener ate the table.

Figure 7 presents an annotated header for the Class I Area Summary Table. The result s in the first three columns are taken directly from the Visibility Projections tool (and are also available in the Glide Slope tool). The results in the fourth column are also taken from the Visibility Projections tool, and depend on the selection of Scenario and RRF Calculation

Method . The results in the fifth column are calculated from information available in the Emissions Review tool, and depend on t he selection of Scenario . The results in the sixth and seventh columns are calculated from information available in the Weighted Emissions Potential (WEP) tool. The only difference between these results is that the calculation for the seventh

column excl udes the following categories of (predominantly) natural emissions sources: Natural Fires, Biogenic, and Wind Blown Dust. Note that all WEP results are based on the “plan02d & prp18a” scenario pair.

The tabular display cannot be altered beyond the sele ctions described above. It can be

c opied and pasted into spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel.11

F igure 6 . Class I Area Summary Table. This tool creates a summary of regional haze

- related

information stored on the TSS.12

Fig ure 7 . Class I Area Summary Table. Annotated header for the Class I Area Summary Table.13

MONITORING: Time Series Tool

The Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) monitoring program reports speciated PM data and associated est imates of light extinction . IMPROVE is a

nation

- wide network which began in 1988 and expanded significantly in 2000 in response to the EPA’s Regional Haze Rule. The Regional Haze Rule specifically requires data from this program to be used by states and tribes to track progress in reducing haze. Further information regarding the IMPROVE program and related monitoring data activities can be found under the Monitoring Methods section ( http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Results/Monitoring.aspx ).

The Time Series tool can be found by clicking on the “Monitoring” button on the Haze Planning page

. The purpose of the Time Series tool is to allow the user to review and investigate

IMP ROVE data based on specific temporal selections made via the tool Control Panel. Options

for the Control Panel selection boxes are shown in Figure 6 and described below :

Parameter Group

– These options select predetermined groups of parameters. The

Mass selection automatically selects all major mass components from the Parameter list (below) and graphically displays in units of μg/m 3 . The Light Extinction selection selects all major extinction components and graphically displays in units of

Mm - 1 . Both of these options are commonly used to display temporal and contribution changes in all species in one graphic.

Parameter

– This option allows the user to select one or more extinction, deciview, or mass parameters to display. All parameters selected will display as a stacked bar chart or line graph, so it is possible to select non

- compatible or meaningless combinations (e.g., Total Extinction and Deciview

– both are measured in different units). The user must be careful to select parameter combinations t hat provide meaningful information.

IMPROVE Algorithm

– This option allows the user to determine how light extinction is calculated from measured mass parameters. The user can select the original or revised IMPROVE algorithm. The WRAP recommendation is for states to use the revised algorithm; therefore this selection is always the default, no matter

what tool is chosen. Due to differences in how species are handled between algorithms, this choice can affect the selection of worst and best days. This ge nerally has a small, but often unexpected effect on resulting averages.

Year

– This option allows the user to select one or more years to display in the range

1988 to the most recent year for which data are available. The baseline period (2000

- 04) is the default. Longer timelines provide insight into historical trends.

Selection of Days

– This option allows the user to select which set of days to display (if Daily is selected in the Averaging box) or which days to include in a displayed average (if Mont hly or Annual is selected in the Averaging box). The Worst or Best 20% IMPROVE days are allowable only for those years which have met the RHR data completeness requirements. The IMP RO VE Sampled option uses all available IMPROVE data for the time periods selected. This choice should be used with care as any averages based on all collected data have no regulatory significance and may be misleading for periods of poor data capture.

Averaging

– This option allows the user to select daily, monthly, and annua l averagi ng periods for display.

Quarter

– This option allows the user to select one or more specific quarters. Display of all quarters is the default.14 Chart Type

– This option allow the user to select between a Timeline, which plots each parameter as i n independent line graph, and Bar Chart, which plots single parameters as a bar and multiple parameters as a stacked bar.

Figure 9 presents several commonly used combinations of Control Panel selections for quick reference. Many of these selection boxes appear in other data review tools and perform

the same functions described here.

The graphic displays cannot be altered beyond the selections described above. They can

be saved or copied by right

- clicking and making the appropriate selection. The data table below the graphic can be copied and pasted into spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel.

Figure 8 . Monitoring: Time Series Tool. The pre

- selected options for this tool were based on

the choice of “Deciview Time Series.”15



### Moni toring Time Series Graphical Display s Control Panel Selections

Annual Baseline Species Extinction, Worst Days

Daily Baseline Species Extinction, all IMPROVE Days

Historical Timeline of Annual Best Days

Individual Worst Days for 2002

Historical Contribution Timelines of Top 3 Species Figure 9

. Monitoring: Time Series Tool. Common graphical outputs and associated Control

Panel selections.16

MONITORING: Glide Slope Tool

IMPROVE data are used to determine baseline visibilit y conditions, to estimate natural visibility conditions, and to calculate the RHR glide slope between baseline and natural

conditions.

The Glide Slope tool can be found by clicking on the “Monitoring” button on the Haze Planning page

. The purpose of the Glide Slope tool is to allow the user to review the required RHR deciview glide slope and optional individual species extinction glide slopes. All results are presented based on extinction/deciview calculations using the revised IMPROVE algorithm.

Extin ction glide slopes are not defined in the RHR guidance, so the ir inclusion here is to support demonstrations of reasonable progress as defined by WRAP protocol. Options for the Control Panel selection boxes are shown in Figure 10 and described below:

Par ameter Group

– These options select predetermined groups of parameters , as described in the “MONITORING: Time Series Tool

. ”

Parameter

– This option allows the user to select one or more extinction, deciview, or mass parameters to display. If parameters w ith different units are selected together, a second y

- axis will appear on the left side of the graph.

Selection of Days

– This option allows the user to select between the Worst and Best days, based on collected IMPROVE data. Note that there is no IMP RO V E Sampled option as in the “MONITORING: Time Series Tool.” The Regional Haze Rule does not require states to calculate a glide slope for the Best days, so only the baseline and natural conditions values are displayed when the Best days option is selected.

A nnual Data

– This option allows the user to select individual annual averages to display on the chart , either to provide an understanding of the inter

- annual variabi lity during the baseline period or to track annual progress beyond the baseline period.

The graphic displays cannot be altered beyond the selections described above. They can be saved or copied by right

- clicking and making the appropriate selection. The data table below the graphic can be copied and pasted into spreadsheet software such a s Microsoft Excel.17

Figure 10 . Monitoring: Glide Slope Tool. Glide slopes for Nitrate, Sulfate, and Organic Mass

Extinction are shown.18

EMISSIONS & SOURCE APPORTIONMENT: SOx/NOx Tracer Tool

WRAP’s Regional Modeling Center performed a source a pportionment analysis using the CAMx air quality model and the PSAT (PM Source Apportionment Technology) tool. Results from this analysis provide information regarding which source regions and source categories are responsible for particulate aerosol mode led at a receptor. Due to resource limitations, this analysis was restricted to SOx and NOx emissions resulting in sulfate and nitrate mass. The results do not directly represent actual sulfate and nitrate measurements, nor can they accurately

be transfo rmed into extinction values. Therefore, these results should be viewed in relative terms among source regions and between emissions scenarios. Further information regarding the PSAT modeling technique can be found under the Source Apportionment Methods s ection
( http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Results/SA.aspx ).

The SOx/NOx Tracer tool can be found by clicking on the “Emissions and Source Apportionment” button on the Haze Planning pa ge . The purpose of the SOx/NOx Tracer tool is to allow the user to investigate modeled attribution results for sulfate and nitrate mass at Class I

areas. Options for the Control Panel selection boxes ( Figure 11 ) are described below:

Parameter

– This op tion allows the user to select either Nitrate/NOx or Sulfate/SOx

results to display. ( The CAMx/PSAT methodology was not used to trace other pollutants due to resource constraints. )

Emissions Scenario

– This option allows the user to select one or more e m issions scenarios. (The CAMx/PSAT methodolo gy was applied only to the Plan 0 2c and Base18b scenarios).

Source Categories

– This option allows the user to select one or more emissions source categories. Display o f all categories requires for the source re gion “Outside Domain” to show up on the bar chart. Natural Fires and Biogenics (WRAP)

– The sum of WRAP fire emissions categorized as natural and biogenic emissions Anthropogenic Fires (WRAP)

– All man

- made WRAP fire emissions

Mobile

– All on

- and off

- road mobile source emissions

Area

– All area source emissions

Point

– All point source emissions

Source Regions

– This option allows the user to select one or more WRAP states or other defined areas as source regions , including an “Outside Domain” category wh ich comprises the model’s initial and boundary conditions.

Selection of Days

– This option allows the user to select which set of model days to display or which days to include in a displayed average . The Worst or Best 20% IMPROVE days options select mod eled days identical with the 2002 IMPROVE Worst and Best days

. The IMPRO VE Sampled option uses all modeled days that correspond to available IMPROVE days in 2002

. The All Days option uses all 365 modeled days for 2002.

Averaging

– This option allows the user to select daily, monthly, and annual averaging periods for display . Daily and monthly selections should be used only when single Source Regions have been selected.

Quarter

– This option allows the user to select one or more specific quarters.

The pie charts display relative regional contributions to total annual modeled sulfate or

nitrate mass . The WRAP contribution is separated from the rest of the pie for easy identification.19

The remaining pie slices include those regions listed in the Source Region box plus the sum of the model’s Initial and Boundary Conditions, termed “Outside Domain.” The total modeled mass traced to the Class I area is displayed below each pie. The pie chart s will change based on

selections in the Parameter

, Emissions Sce nario and Selection of Days boxes. The y will not change based on selections in the Source Category or Source Region boxes.

The bar chart display s source region and source category contributions of sulfate or

nitrate mass. Display of all source regions is the default. Once all regions’ contributions have been reviewed, those with significant contributions can be selected individually and reviewed using the Monthly or Daily Averaging selections. This will identify any temporal patterns in a state’s cont ributions.

Figure 1 2 presents several commonly used combinations of Control Panel selections for quick reference. The graphic displays cannot be altered beyond the selections described above. They can be saved or copied by right

- clicking and making the appropriate selection. The data table below the graphic can be copied and pasted into spreadsheet software such as Microsoft

Excel.

Figure 11 . Emissions & Source Apportionment: SOx/NOx Tracer Tool. This tool displays regional and state contributio ns to sulfate or nitrate mass.20



### Source A pportionment Graphical Displays Control Panel Selections

Annual Contribution of Nitrate

, Best Days

Single State, Daily Contribution of Sulfate, Worst Days

Single State, Daily Contribution, All Model D ays Figure 1 2 . Emissions & Source Apportionment: SOx/NOx Tracer Tool. Common graphical outputs and associated Control Panel selections.21

EMISSIONS & SOURCE APPORTIONMENT: Weighted Emissions Potential Tool

The Weighted Emissions Potential ( WEP ) ana lysis was developed as a screening tool for states to decide which source regions have the potential to contribute to haze formation at specific Class I areas, based on both the B aseline (Plan02d) and 2018 (PRP18) emissions

inventories. Unlike the SOx/NOx Tracer analysis, t his method does not account for chemistry and removal processes. Instead, the WEP analysis relies on an integration of gridded emissions data, meteorological back trajectory residence time data, a one

- over

- distance factor to approximate deposition, and a normalization of the final results. Residence time over an area is indicative of general flow patterns, but does not necessarily imply the area contributed significantly to haze at a given receptor. Therefore, users are cautioned to vi ew the WEP analysis as one piece of a larger, more comprehensiv e weight of evidence analysis. Further information regarding the WEP analysis method can be found under the Source Apportionment Methods section ( http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Results/SA.aspx ).

The WEP tool can be found by clicking on the “Emissions and Source Apportionment”

button on the Haze Planning page

. Options for the Control Panel selection boxes are shown in

F igure 13 and described below:

Parameter

– This option allows the user to select results for one parameter at a time

. The gridded emissions used for this analysis represent annual totals. Note that the Primary Organic Aerosol parameter represents organic carbon compounds emitted directly as particulates, but not secondary organics which condense from a gaseous state after being emitted.

Selection of Days

– This option allows the user to select meteorological back trajectory residence time fields based on the Worst and Best IMPROVE days.

Source Categories

– This option allows the user to select one or more emissions source categories. Display of all categories is the default.

Source Regions

– This option allows the user to select one or more source regi ons, including: individual WRAP states, Pacific Offshore, CENRAP, Eastern U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Display of all regions is the default.

The WEP bar charts display normalized (unitless) , residence time

- and distance

- weighted
annual emissions value, b y emissions source region. These WEP results are reminiscent of the
SOx/NOx Tracer tool results. However, the WEP results are considered less rigorous and should be used only as a screening tool to identify regions with the potential to impact Class I ar eas. The 2018 results are further normalized by the Baseline results so that actual changes in weighted emissions between scenarios is evident.

The WEP map matrix contains 7 individual maps. The left column contains maps of the
emissions inventories, w ith all sources combined. The central single map depicts the Worst or Best days residence times for the baseline period, determined using the revised IMPROVE algorithm. The same residence time field is used with all emissions scenarios. The right column contains maps of the normalized, weighted emissions. Geographical regions and individual grid cells with significant potential to impact the selected Class I area are easily distinguished in these maps. Each map can be enlarged by clicking on it.

The graphic displays c annot be altered beyond the selections described above. They can be saved or copied by right

- clicking and making the appropriate selection. The data table below

the bar chart can be copied and pasted into spreadsheet software such as Mi crosoft Excel.22

Figure 1 3 . Emissions & Source Apportionment: Weighted Emissions Potential Tool. Annual emissions inventories were weighted by back trajectory residence time and distance, and then normalized. Results indicate geographic regions with the potential to impact selected Class I

areas.23

EMISSIONS & SOURCE APPORT IONMENT: Organic Aerosol Tracer Tool

The CMAQ model results were analyzed to identify organic carbon aerosol source

contributions as originating in one of three categories :

P ri mary organics (anthropogenic and biogenic sources ) , resulting from direct organic
aerosol emissions;

A nthropogenic secondary organ ics, resulting from aromatic VOCs, such as xylene,
toluene, and cresols; and

Biogenic secondary organics, resulting from bio genic VOCs, such as terpenes.

T his analysis did not include identification of emissions source regions or detailed source category information. Further information regarding the Organic Aerosol Tracer technique can be found under the Source Apportionment Methods section
( http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Results/SA.aspx ).

The Organic Aerosol Tracer tool can be found by clicking on the “Emissions and Source Apportionment” button on th e Haze Planning page . The purpose of the tool is to allow the user to investigate the contribution of primary and secondary anthropogenic and biogenic sources on modeled organic carbon at Class I areas. Options for the Control Panel selection boxes are

s hown in Figure 1 4 and described below:

Parameter

– This option allows the user to select among the three types of organic aerosol. Display of all types is the default.

Emissions Scenario

– This option allows the user to select one or more emissions

sc en arios.

Selection of Days

– This option allows the user to select which set of model days to display or which days to include in a displayed average. The Worst or Best 20% IMPROVE days options select modeled days identical with the 2002 IMPROVE

Worst and Best days. The IMPROVE Sampled option uses all modeled days that correspond to available IMPROVE days in 2002. The All Days option uses all 365 modeled days for 2002. Aerosol loadings from large fire events can clog IMPROVE filters and result in lost da ta. I t is advisable to review results using both the All Days option and the IMPROVE Sample d option to understand if significant events captured by the model are missed by the selection of IMPROVE Sample days only.

Averaging

– This option allows the user to select daily, monthly, and annual averaging periods for display.

Quarter

– This option allows the user to select one or more specific quarters. Display of all quarters is the default.

The bar chart display s modeled contributions to organic aerosol

. Individual organic aerosol parameter types and specific time aggregations and periods can be selected for a detailed review of temporal patterns. Figure 1 5 illustrates how the tool can be used to see the modeled change in organic aerosol contribution be tween the Baseline and 2018 Base Case scenarios.

The graphic displays cannot be altered beyond the selections described above. They can be saved or copied by right

- clicking and making the appropriate selection. The data table below the graphic can be c opied and pasted into spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel.24

Figure 1 4 . Emissions & Source Apportionment: Organic Aerosol Tracer Tool. This tool identifies organic carbon source type contributions as: 1) primary organics (anthropogenic and

bi ogenic); 2) anthropogenic secondary organics; and 3) biogenic secondary organics. The results do not include emissions source regions or detailed source category information.

Figure 1 5 . Emissions & Source Apportionment: Organic Aerosol Tracer T ool. Monthly r esults for the Baseline and 2018 emissions scenarios are shown here. Each pair of bars illustrates the modeled change in o rganic aerosol

.25

EMISSIONS & SOURCE APPORTIONMENT: Emissions Review Tool

The WRAP developed a set of comprehensive emissions inventories for 2002, the baseline period (2000

- 04), and 2018. Further information regarding the WRAP emissions inventory work can be found under the Modeling Methods section
( http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Results/Emissions.aspx ).

The Emissions Review tool can be found by clicking on the “Emissions & Source Apportionment” button on the Haze Planning page. Data are based on the SMOKE emissions modeling system for each pollutant by source category, emissions scenario, and regional, state, and county designations. These emissions inventories are similar but not identical to inventories available on WRAP’s Emissions Data Management System (EDMS ). (F or general EDMS information, go to http://www.wrapedms.org/ . For access to detailed EDMS inventories available on the TSS, go to http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/ED MS.ASPX or http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/EDMS_map.ASPX

. ) Options for the tool’s Control Panel selection boxes are shown in Figure 16 and described below.

Parameter

– This option al lows the user to select summaries by pollutant. The regional emissions represent annual totals. Note that the “gas and particulate” option for Sulfur Oxides and Nitrogen Oxides provides the complete SMOKE emissions outputs, but the Sulfur Dioxide and Nit rogen Oxides (gas) selections provide gaseous emissions only, which are comparable to information available in Eastern Research Group’s (ERG’s) pivot tables.

Emissions Scenario

– This option allows the user to select single or pre

- defined pairs

of scenari os. Additionally, the user can select either SMOKE

- processed, gridded emissions data (from the TSS) or native emissions inventories (from the EDMS) as the data source type. The user can also select both to compare SMOKE

- processed

and native inventories.

Source Categories

– This option allows the user to select one or more emissions source categories.

Region

– This option allows the user to select one or more states/regions for which the emissions data are presented. The only exception to regional sums is the off

shore category; Pacific and Atlantic region emissions must be viewed separately. It is important to note that the international inventories used by WRAP do not always present data from different scenarios in a consistent manner. However, the E missions Review tool accurately presents what was used in WRAP’s regional modeling efforts.

County

– If a single State or Province is selected, then individual counties or districts will be presented for selection in the County selection box. See Figure 17 for an example.

The graphic displays cannot be altered beyond the selections described above. They can be saved or copied by right

- clicking and making the appropriate selection. The data table below the graphic can be copied and pasted into spreadsh eet software such as Microsoft Excel.26

Figure 16 . Emissions & Source Apportionment: Emissions Review Tool. This tool allows the user to review annual emissions processed through SMOKE for WRAP’s modeling efforts.27

Figure 17. Emissions & So urce Apportionment: Emissions Review Tool. When a single state or province is selected, the County box will populate with counties or districts.28

MODELING: Model Performance Tool

The WRAP developed a set of comprehensive emissions inventories for 2002, the baseline period (2000

- 04), and 2018. These inventories were used to model visibility impacts for the same time periods. Further information regarding the WRAP modeling techniques can be found under the Modeling Methods section
( http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Results/Modeling.aspx ).

The Model Performance tool can be found by clicking on the “ Modeling ” button on the Haze Planning page . The purpose of the Model Performanc e tool is to allow the user to visually gauge model performance on a site

- by

- site basis by comparing the 2002 modeling results (Base02) with the IMPROVE monitoring data collected in 2002. Model performance varies by species and sometimes by time of year, so it is important for users to review these results in more than one way. Detailed model performance reviews can be found on the RMC web site
( http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/ ). Options for the tool’s Co ntrol Panel selection boxes are shown in Figure 1 8 and described below:

Parameter

– This option allows the user to select one or more mass parameters to display. There is no option to select extinction parameters because model performance is best reviewe d based on mass. (Note that the model results do not include sea salt as a parameter.)

IMPROVE Algorithm

– The user can select the original or revised IMPROVE algorithm. The WRAP recommendation is for states to use the revised algorithm;

therefore this selection is the default. Due to differences in how species are handled between algorithms, th is choice can affect the selection of worst and best days. This generally has a small, but often unexpected effect on resulting averages.

Selection of Days

– T his option allows the user to select which set of model days to display or which days to include in a displayed average. The Worst or Best 20% IMPROVE days options select modeled days identical with the 2002 IMPROVE Worst and Best days. The IMPROVE Sampl ed option uses all modeled days that correspond to available IMPROVE days in 2002. The All Days option uses all 365 modeled days for 2002.

Averaging

– This option allows the user to select daily, monthly, and annual averaging periods for display.

Quarte r

– This option allows the user to select one or more specific quarters.

Chart Type

– This option allow the user to select between a Timeline, which plots each parameter as in independent line graph, and Bar Chart, which plots single parameters as a bar a nd multiple parameters as a stacked bar.

The graphic displays cannot be altered beyond the selections described above. They can be saved or copied by right

- clicking and making the appropriate selection. The data table below the graphic can be copied an d pasted into spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel.29

Figure 1 8

. Modeling : Model Performance Tool. Th is tool allows users to determine model performance for individual IMPROVE monitoring sites.30

MODELING : Visibility Modeling Results Tool

The Visibility Modeling Results tool can be found by clicking on the “Modeling” button

on the Haze Planning page . The purpose of the Model Performance tool is to allow the user to view time series of individual model runs or compare aggre gates of differen t model runs. Information regarding the WRAP modeling techniques can be found under the Modeling Methods section ( http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Results/Modeling.aspx ). Optio ns for the tool’s Control Panel selection boxes are shown in Figure 1 9 and described below:

Parameter

– This option allows the user to select one or more mass or vis ibility parameters to display. There is no option to select extinction parameters. (Note that the model results do not include sea salt, though this parameter has been retained for consistency across tools.)

IMPROVE Algorithm

– The user can select the original or revised IMPROVE algorithm. The WRAP recommendation is for states to use the re vised algorithm;

therefore this selection is the default. Due to differences in how species are handled between algorithms, this choice can affect the selection of worst and best days. This generally has a small, but often unexpected effect on resulting averages.

Selection of Days

– This option allows the user to select which set of model days to display or which days to include in a displayed average. The Worst or Best 20% IMPROVE days options select modeled days identical with the 2002 IMPROVE

Worst a nd Best days. The IMPROVE Sampled option uses all modeled days that correspond to available IMPROVE days in 2002. The All Days option uses all 365 modeled days for 2002.

Averaging

– This option allows the user to select daily, monthl y, and annual

averag ing periods for display.

Quarter

– This option allows the user to select one or more specific quarters.

Emissions Scenario

– This option allows the user to select single or pre

- defined pairs

of emissions scenarios.

Chart Type

– This option allow the use r to select between a Timeline, which plots each parameter as in independent line graph, and Bar Chart, which plots single parameters as a bar and multiple parameters as a stacked bar.

The options available on this tool are similar to those available on the “Monitoring: Time Series tool,” and individually selected model runs can be displayed in similar ways. When viewing model results from pairs of Emissions Scenarios it is helpful to restrict the Averaging option to Monthly or Annual.

The graphic dis plays cannot be altered beyond the selections described above. They can be saved or copied by right

- clicking and making the appropriate selection. The data table below the graphic can be copied and pasted into spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel

.31

Figure 1 9 . Modeling: Visibility Modeling Results Tool. This tool is very similar to the “Monitoring: Time Series Tool”, and allows users to view time series plots of model data and compare different model runs

.32

MODELING: Visibility Projecti ons Tool

Visibility projections are calculated by multiplying a species

- specific relative response factor (RRF) by the baseline period IMPROVE mass, and then converting to extinction and

deciview. The RRF is defined as the ratio of future

- to

- current mod eled mass. As an example, the projected sulfate extinction is calculated by the following generalized formulas:

1. SO 4 RRF = [2018 Modeled Sulfate/Baseline Modeled SO 4 ]

2. Projected SO 4 Mass = Baseline IMPROVE SO 4 x RRF

3. Projected SO 4 Extinction = Conversion via IMPROVE Algorithm of Proj

. SO 4 Mass

WRAP has defined three RRF calculation methods which differ in how the days for the

calculation are selected:

Specific Days (EPA)

– This is the EPA default method. In this method, single species’ RRFs are calculat ed across observed (i.e., IMPROVE) Worst or Best days in the base model year.

Quarterly Weighted

– In this method, four (4) quarterly species’ RRFs are calculated from the 20% worst or best days in each quarter, regardless of how those days compare to the overall annual Worst and Best days.

Monthly Weighted

– In this method, twelve (12) monthly species’ RRFs are calculated from the 20% worst or best days in each month, regardless of how those days compare to the overall annual Worst and Best days.

Detail s of the visibility projection methodology are described in the Applying Monitoring Metrics for Regional Haze Planning on the Planning Information Exchange page ( http://v ista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Planning/InformationExchange.aspx ).

The Visibility Projections Tool displays data very similar to the “Monitoring: Glide Slope Tool,” with the addition of projected visibility values for 2018. Options for the Control

Panel selection boxes are shown in Figure 20 and described below:

Parameter Group

– These options select predetermined groups of parameters, as

described in the “MONITORING: Time Series Tool.”

Parameter

– This option allows the user to select one or more extin ction, deciview, or mass parameters to display. If parameters with different units are selected together, a second y

- axis will appear on the left side of the graph. Figure 21 presents the visibility projections for the 3 dominant species at th e same site depicted in Figure

20

.

Selection of Days

– This option allows the user to select between the Worst and Best days, based on collected IMPROVE data. The Regional Haze Rule does not require states to calculate a glide slope for the Best days, so only the b aseline

, natural

conditions , and 2018 projected values are displayed when the Best days option is

selected.

A nnual Data

– This option allows the user to select individual annual a verages to display on the chart, either to provide an understanding of the i nter

- annual variability

dur ing the baseline period or to track annual progress beyond the baseline period.33 RRF Calculation Method

– This option allows the user to select among WRAP’s three methods for calculating re lative response factors (RRFs). The Spe cific Days

selection is the EPA default.

Base and Projection Emissions Scenario

– This option allows the user to select among pairs of WRAP’s base and projected scenarios.

The graphic displays cannot be altered beyond the selections described above. Th ey can be saved or copied by right

- clicking and making the appropriate selection. The data table below the graphic can be copied and pasted into spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel.

Figure 20 . Modeling: Visibility Projections Tool. This tool is nearly identical to the “Monitoring: Glide Slope Tool.” In addition to showing deciview of species glide slopes, this tool also displays the projected visibility parameter value for 2018.34

Fi gure 21 . Modeling: Visibility Projections Tool. In this view, species extinction glide slopes and 2018 projections are shown for the 3 dominant species at this site.