Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

December 2016

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Gulf of Maine Region

December 2016

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

htp://ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=6AABE50C-1

 Gulf of Maine Signifcant Events - September–November 2016

Precipitation Sea Surface Temperatures

Regional Climate Overview - September–November 2016

Autumn sea surface temperature (SST) 

anomalies in the Gulf of Maine ranged from 

around 1°C (2°F) to greater than 2°C (4°F). The 

plot below shows monthly SST anomalies for the 

Gulf from January 1982–October 2016. With the 

excepton of four individual months, anomalies 

have been positve since mid-2009. Positve 

anomalies in 2016 have been second only to 

those of 2012. Peaks in the positve anomalies 

during this warm period are the largest deviatons 

from the mean in the entre tme series. 

Autumn temperatures (averaged over 

September, October, and November) ranged 

from 0.5°C (1°F) to 3°C (5°F) above normal. 

Temperatures in September ranged from 

near normal in portons of Nova Scota and 

New Brunswick to 3°C (5°F) above normal 

in portons of Maine and Massachusets. In 

October, temperatures ranged from near 

normal in southern Maine and parts of Nova 

Scota to 3°C (5°F) above normal in central 

Maine and northeastern New Brunswick. 

November average temperatures ranged from 

near normal in southern Maine to 4°C (7°F) 

above normal in northeastern New Brunswick. 

Sea surface temperature anomalies based on 1985–2016. 

Mean SST anomalies from NOAA AVHRR data. Credit: 

University of Maine School of Marine Sciences and NERACOOS

Temperature

An early October 

storm brought heavy 

rain and fooding to 

Cape Breton, NS.

Autumn precipitaton (accumulated from 

September–November) ranged from 25–125% 

of normal, with most areas seeing 50–90% of 

normal. September precipitaton ranged from 

25–90% of normal for a majority of the region. 

Northern New Brunswick near the Quebec 

border and a few spots in northern Nova Scota 

were the main exceptons, seeing up to 150% of 

normal. October precipitaton varied, ranging 

from 50% of normal in portons of Maine and 

New Brunswick to 225% of normal in eastern

Cape Breton, NS. In November, precipitaton 

ranged from 25% of normal to near normal 

for most areas. The driest areas were in 

southwestern New Brunswick, southern Nova 

Scota, and Cape Cod, MA, while portons of 

Maine saw up to 125% of normal. 

Departure from Normal

Temperature and precipitaton normals based on 1981–2010.

Departure from Normal Percent of Normal

Back-to-back storms brought heavy snow to northern Maine 

and the Maritmes in late November. From November 27–29, 

up to 38 cm (15 in.) of snow and wind gusts to 110 km/h (68 

mph) led to more than 35,000 customers losing power in the 

Maritmes. Then from November 30–December 1, up to 43 

cm (17 in.) of heavy, wet snow fell, with the greatest totals 

in northern Maine. Downed trees and power lines lef nearly 

80,000 customers without power in the Maritmes and Maine. 

It was the frst above-normal Atlantc hurricane season 

since 2012. There were 15 named storms, including seven 

hurricanes, three of which were major hurricanes.

Despite several heavy rain events, long-term precipitaton defcits and drought 

conditons contnued in New England and parts of the Maritmes. The drought 

intensifed in September and persisted through October and November, afectng 

water resources and agriculture (see Impacts secton for details).

Severe thunderstorms hit Massachusets, New Hampshire, Maine, and New 

Brunswick in mid-September. Strong winds downed dozens of trees and power 

lines, with more than 22,000 customers in southern New Hampshire losing power. 

Downpours caused localized fooding in Concord, NH; Ashland, ME; and Juniper, NB.

An intense low pressure system fueled by the remnants of Hurricane Mathew 

tracked east of New Brunswick from October 9–11. More than a dozen extreme 24-

hour precipitaton records were broken in the Maritmes, primarily in Nova Scota. 

Sydney, NS, received 219 mm (8.60 in.) of rain on October 10, making it the site’s 

wetest day since 1870 and the third wetest day on record for Nova Scota. Sydney 

also had its wetest October on record. The heavy rain caused signifcant fooding 

(see Impacts secton for details). Other parts of the region saw up to 88 mm (3.46 

in.) of rain. In additon, wind gusts of up to 137 km/h (85 mph) led to vehicle 

restrictons on bridges, cancelled ferry crossings, and downed trees and wires. At 

least 90,000 Maritmes customers lost power, some for more than two days.

From October 21–23, a post-tropical low from the south merged with a trough 

from the west to produce up to 161 mm (6.34 in.) of rain, with the greatest totals in 

southern Maine. Several feet of water fooded roadways, stranding cars and closing 

roads in parts of the three states and Halifax, NS. The storm also produced strong 

winds, which contributed to power outages and rough seas.

More than 30 high temperature records were broken in the Maritmes on October 

7 and 8, with several sites nearing 25°C (77°F). Caribou, ME, set a record high of 

24°C (76°F). On October 22, temperatures once again approached 25°C (77°F), 

setng about a dozen new high temperature records in the Maritmes. 

Drought conditons intensifed 

and persisted in New England, 

southwestern New Brunswick, 

and southwestern Nova Scota 

during fall.

Gulf of Maine 

sea surface 

temperatures have 

been above average 

since mid-2009. 

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-4

-5

0

°F

1

2

3

-1

-2

-3

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°C
Regional Impacts - September–November 2016

Regional Outlook - Winter 2016–17 Gulf of Maine Region Partners

Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment, Climate 

Network

www.gulfofmaine.org/climatenetwork

Environment and Climate Change Canada

www.ec.gc.ca

Natonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton

www.noaa.gov

Natonal Centers for Environmental Informaton

www.ncei.noaa.gov

Regional Climate Services

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/rcsd

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Natonal Weather Service

www.weather.gov

Northeast River Forecast Center

www.weather.gov/nerfc

NOAA Sea Grant Network 

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

Climate Predicton Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences

www.umaine.edu/marine

Gulf of Maine Research Insttute

www.gmri.org

State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org

Natonal Integrated Drought Informaton System 

www.drought.gov

Cooperatve Insttute for the North Atlantc Region

www.cinar.org

Northeastern Regional Associaton of Coastal and Ocean 

Systems

www.neracoos.org

Contacts

NOAA:

Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

Samantha Borisof (samantha.borisof@cornell.edu)

Environment and Climate Change Canada:

1-800-668-6767 (in Canada only)

819-997-2800 (long-distance charges apply)

ec.enviroinfo.ec@canada.ca

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www.gulfofmaine.org/2/climate-network-climate-outlook.

Gulf of Maine Region

Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook 

December 2016 

www.drought.gov/drought/resources/reports

htp://ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.

asp?lang=En&n=6AABE50C-1

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Temperature and 

Precipitation

For December 2016–February 2017, 

Environment and Climate Change Canada and 

NOAA’s Climate Predicton Center are both 

calling for an increased chance of abovenormal temperatures for the entre Gulf of 

Maine region. The forecast for New England is 

linked to long-term temperature trends. 

For precipitaton, both groups are calling for 

equal chances for the region for winter 2016–

17. This means there is a 33.3% chance each of 

above-, near-, or below-normal precipitaton.

La Niña can infuence the region’s temperature 

and precipitaton paterns. However, this La 

Niña is expected to be weak and short-lived, so 

its impacts may be more variable. Also, other 

paterns of climate variability such as the Arctc 

Oscillaton or North Atlantc Oscillaton may 

dominate the region’s weather paterns.

Probability of above-normal (A)

Environment and Climate Change Canada map (above lef) 

produced on November 30. NOAA’s Climate Predicton 

Center map (above right) produced on November 17.

La Niña

In November, cooler-than-normal sea surface 

temperatures in the equatorial Pacifc Ocean 

and atmospheric paterns indicated weak La 

Niña conditons. NOAA’s Climate Predicton 

Center indicates weak La Niña conditons are 

favored to persist through winter 2016–17, 

with a transiton to ENSO-neutral conditons

expected during January–March 2017. 

40

Credit: Communicatons Nova Scota.

The October 2016 North 

American Drought 

Monitor.

Drought

Water levels of rivers, lakes, wells, and reservoirs were well below normal in New England and parts 

of the Maritmes. Preliminary data indicated more than 20 long-term gauges in the three states 

had record or near-record low streamfow in late September. During the same period, more than 

345 Massachusets and New Hampshire water suppliers had bans or restrictons. Mandatory water 

restrictons were also in place in southwestern Nova Scota. In Massachusets, fsh were stranded

along portons of some rivers and there was a higher rate of fsh kills. Numerous shallow, private wells 

ran dry. Residents drilled new wells, hauled in water, or relied on botled water. In southern Nova 

Scota, community centers, parks, and schools were made available for showering. York, ME, actvated 

its emergency interconnecton with a nearby water district, while Cambridge, MA, bought water from 

the Massachusets Water Resources Authority for an estmated $1.2 million per month. 

Dwindling water supplies challenged growers in New England and southern Nova Scota, with some 

farmers hauling in water. Hay yields were below average in many of these areas. Several cranberry 

growers in Massachusets had “litle or no water for harvest.” All crops in Massachusets showed 

some loss, with signifcant losses of hay, cranberries, and potatoes. Several Nova Scota farmers lost 

Christmas tree seedlings due to the drought. Poor pasture conditons led some farmers to sell of 

livestock and others to use supplemental feed, requiring them to buy more to get through winter. 

Beekeepers in southern Maine reported that honey producton was down, with several having no crop 

at all. In the U.S., farmers in more drought-stricken countes became eligible for federal aid. Due to 

the dry conditons, ofcials kept burn restrictons and seasonal fre crews in place a week longer than 

usual in southwestern Nova Scota.

A

33

Drought

The U.S. Drought Outlook 

from NOAA’s Climate 

Predicton Center for 

December 15, 2016–March 

31, 2017 calls for drought 

conditons to persist or 

remain but improve in 

Massachusets, southern 

New Hampshire, and 

portons of central and 

southern Maine. Drought 

conditons are expected to 

ease in the rest of Maine 

and New Hampshire. 

Canadian Thanksgiving Day Storm

Signifcant fooding occurred in Cape Breton, NS, from October 9–11. More than 1,800 homes 

reported water damage, with 38 deemed uninhabitable. The Southend Community Centre, pictured 

on the botom lef, was severely damaged and is expected to be torn down. Numerous roads, bridges, 

culverts, and the region’s only railway line were washed out or severely damaged. Seventeen people 

were rescued from vehicles, and up to a dozen fre service vehicles were damaged. Over 5,000 

insurance claims were fled, totaling $85 million in damage. The province is seeking Disaster Financial 

Assistance.

Sept. 12 streamfow

(below) and Sept. 28 

groundwater (right) 

compared to historical 

values. Credit: USGS.