Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

    Samantha Borisoff (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|September 2013 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Quarterly Climate Impacts 

and Outlook

Eastern Region

September 2013

National - Significant Events for June–August 2013

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies June: Waterlogged

Regional - Climate Overview for June–August 2013

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

June 1–August 31, 2013

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F)

June 1–August 31, 2013

June

July

Highlights for the East

Flash flooding occurred in every Eastern Region 

state in June or July. In New York, the Oneida 

Creek reached a record-high 17.23 feet on June 

28. On July 29 in North Carolina, the South Fork 

Catawba River had its third highest crest on 

record, 17.31 feet. Also, Lake Champlain rose to 

a record-high July level of 99.68 feet on July 7 

and 8 due to heavy rain runoff.

Wallops Island, VA, set a record when the 

temperature did not drop below 70 degrees 

F, even at night, from June 23–July 24. Several 

other cities set similar records, including 

Washington D.C., where the temperature did not 

drop below 80 degrees F from July 16-20. The 

warm weather also caused New York City and 

Westchester County, NY, to set an all-time peak 

electric usage record of 13,322 MW on July 19.

Philadelphia, PA, had back-to-back record wet 

months: June with 10.56 inches and July with 

13.24 inches. Wilmington, DE, had its wettest 

June on record with 13.66 inches. Roanoke, VA, 

with 12.73 inches, Greenville-Spartanburg, SC, 

with 14.45 inches, and Asheville, NC, with 13.69 

inches, had their wettest Julys on record. 

Fifteen of the region's sixteen states ranked this 

June among their ten wettest. In fact, eleven 

states ranked it in their top five wettest. Delaware 

and New Jersey had their wettest Junes on 

record at 283% and 238% of normal respectively. 

Three of Pennsylvania's divisions, three of South 

Carolina's divisions and one of Connecticut's 

divisions also had their wettest June on record. 

Dry conditions were found in thirteen states 

at the start of June, but abundant precipitation 

through early July erased dryness by mid-July. 

However, an area of abnormal dryness crept back 

into Pennsylvania by late August.

The Eastern Region had its wettest summer 

on record with 18.47 inches of rain, 144% of 

normal. All sixteen states ranked this summer 

among their top eleven wettest, with South 

Carolina (173% of normal) and New York (137% 

of normal) seeing their wettest summers on 

record. Philadelphia, PA, Asheville, NC, and 

Greenville-Spartanburg, SC, also had their 

wettest summers on record. On the heels of an 

extremely wet June, July was also quite wet, 

with nine states ranking it among their top 

fifteen wettest. August was nearly split with 

nine wet states and seven dry states.

With an average temperature of 71.0 degrees 

F, summer was 0.1 degrees F warmer than 

normal in the region. Eleven of the sixteen 

states were warmer than normal, with seven 

states ranking this summer among their top 20 

warmest. While June was warmer than normal, 

the northernmost states sweltered in July. 

Eleven states ranked this July among their top 

20 warmest. At +4.6 degrees F and +4.5 degrees 

F respectively, Rhode Island and Massachusetts 

had their warmest July on record. August was 

a cool month in the region with fifteen of the 

sixteen states cooler than normal. 

The contiguous United States' summer average temperature of 72.6 degrees F was 1.2 degrees F warmer 

than the 20th century average. This made it the 15th warmest summer on record for the lower 48 states. 

During the summer, the contiguous United States received an average of 9.53 inches of rain, 1.28 inches 

above the 20th century average. This made it the wettest summer since 2004 and the eighth wettest 

summer on record in the lower 48 states. 

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

June 1–30, 2013
Regional - Impacts for June–August 2013

Contacts: Ellen Mecray (Ellen.L.Mecray@noaa.gov)

    Samantha Borisoff (sgh58@cornell.edu)

Eastern Region Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook|September 2013 

 www.drought.gov/drought/content/resources/reports

Regional - Outlook for Fall 2013 Eastern Region Partners

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

www.noaa.gov

National Climatic Data Center

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

National Weather Service, Eastern Region

www.weather.gov

NOAA Fisheries Science Centers and

Regional Offices, Northeast and Southeast

www.nmfs.noaa.gov

Coastal Services Center and National Centers for Ocean 

and Coastal Science

www.oceanservice.noaa.gov 

NOAA Research, Climate Program Office and

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

www.oar.noaa.gov

NOAA National Sea Grant Office

www.seagrant.noaa.gov

NOAA’s North Atlantic, South Atlantic, and Great

Lakes Regional Collaboration Teams

www.regions.noaa.gov

Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.noaa.gov

Northeast Regional Climate Center

www.nrcc.cornell.edu

Southeast Regional Climate Center

www.sercc.com

National Integrated Drought Information

System

www.drought.gov

Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments

www.cisa.sc.edu

Consortium on Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast

www.ccrun.org

Cooperative Institute for North Atlantic Research

www.cinar.org

Eastern Region State Climatologists

www.stateclimate.org 

#regionalclimateoutlooks

Three-Month

Temperature Outlook 

Updated 2013 Atlantic 

Hurricane Season Outlook 

Computer models 

and long-term 

temperature 

trends indicate an 

increased chance 

of above-normal 

temperatures for 

part of the region. In the figure above, areas 

marked by a 40 are predicted to have a 40% 

to 50% chance of being warmer than normal, 

a 33.3% chance of being near-normal, and 

less than a 33.3% chance of being cooler than 

normal. Areas marked by a 33 have a 33.3% 

to 40% chance of experiencing above-normal 

temperatures, a 33.3% chance of near-normal 

temperatures, and less than a 33.3% chance 

of below-normal temperatures. Areas with no 

clear climate signals, marked EC, have equal 

chances of above-, near-, or below-normal 

temperatures, meaning each category has a 

33.3% chance of occurring.

The Atlantic hurricane season is still expected to 

be above-normal, according to NOAA's updated 

outlook issued on August 8. As atmospheric and 

oceanic conditions are expected to be favorable 

for storm development (see above-normal 

sea surface temperatures above), the updated 

outlook calls for a 70% chance of each of the 

following: 13-19 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 

and 3-5 major hurricanes. In comparison, 

the outlook issued in May predicted 13-20 

named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 major 

hurricanes. The reduced numbers resulted from a 

decreased likelihood of La Niña development, the 

lack of July hurricanes, variable tropical Atlantic 

wind patterns, and lower hurricane season model 

predictions. The season, which runs from June 1–

November 30, has already produced nine named 

storms.

Brown Tide

Heavy rain in June is likely to blame for the first summer brown tide since 2008 in 

Great South Bay south of Long Island, NY. Excessive nitrogen was flushed into the 

waters and stimulated the algal blooms that cause brown tide. On July 2 brown tide 

organism were recorded at 1+ million cells per millimeter west of Islip. By reducing 

the amount of light that passes through the water, brown tide seriously impacts 

eelgrass, which provides spawning grounds for fish and shellfish and is a major part 

of the food web. Since the brown tide has a water temperature threshold of around 

80 degrees F, the mid-July heat wave helped algae levels subside. 

(http://www.seagrant.sunysb.edu/articles/t/brown-tide-research-initiative-about-brown-tide)

Crop Conditions

Persistent precipitation during summer affected farmers across the region. Rain 

delayed growers from harvesting and planting crops, cutting hay, and applying 

treatments. In the Carolinas, the flavor and quality of tobacco, peaches, and 

watermelons were degraded and mold and fungal diseases damaged corn, tomato, 

and peanut crops. In North Carolina, growers in Cleveland County reported berry 

losses due to fruit swelling, and in Columbus County around 15% of intended 

soybean plantings did not get planted. In South Carolina, around 20% of wheat was 

left in the ground as farmers were unable to access soggy fields, and winter wheat 

harvest finished a month behind normal. With crop damage exceeding 30% in 36 

of South Carolina's 42 counties, the state was declared an agricultural disaster area 

in late August. This designation allows qualifying farmers to apply for low-interest 

emergency loans and other federal assistance programs. Farmers in fourteen 

neighboring North Carolina counties can also apply for assistance. 

(http://www.ncagr.gov/stats/weather/weather.htm) & (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/

MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1574)

Valid for October–December 2013 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (°C)

September 14, 2013 (Credit: National Hurricane Center)

A

EC: Equal chances of 

above, near, or below 

normal

A: Above normal

33/40: Probability 

of above-normal 

temperatures

Above: Brown tide cell densities in cells per milliliter in Great South 

Bay south of Long Island, NY, on July 2, 2013. Below: Brown tide cell 

densities in the same locations on July 15, 2013. (Maps courtesy of 

Christopher Gobler, Gobler Laboratory of Stony Brook University.)

A

EC

33

Probability of above

40

July 2

July 15

Normals based on 1981–2010