Ammonia: Opportunities for 

Grid Support

Mark Ruth

NH3 Energy Implementation Conference

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

November 1, 2018

NREL/PR-6A20-72635
NREL | 2

Technology Development is 

Impacting the Grid

• Cost of renewable 

electrons dropping 

dramatically

• Increased 

electrification 

• Connectivity, 

autonomy, machine 

learning

2

Source: (Arun Majumdar) 1. DOE EERE Sunshot Q1’15 Report, 2. DOE EERE Wind Report, 2015 
NREL | 3

Low Prices for Wind and Solar

Source https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/07/24/indiana-solar-solarstorage-solarwindstorage-oh-my/(July 24, 2018)

• Wind and solar 

power purchase 

agreements 

(PPAs) are key 

opportunities.

• Indiana IRP 

Averages:

• Wind 

<$27/MWh

• Solar 

<$36/MWh

• Expiring PPAs 

may have even 

lower prices
NREL | 4

Impacting Grid Mixes around the World

Source: Bakke, et al “Evolution of the Grid in the MISO region” (Nov 7, 2017)

The Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) expects 

significant growth in renewable and gas-fired generation 
NREL | 5

Need for Additional Grid Flexibility

Increased renewables 

penetration can lead to 

1) over generation / 

curtailment

2) unprecedented ramp 

rates for dispatchable 

generation

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

PV Penetration and Hour

Generation (MW)

PV

Gas

Turbine

Pumped

Storage

Hydro

Combined

Cycle

Imports

Coal

Nuclear

Wind

Geo

Exports

 Base 2% 6% 10% 

 (no PV)

Denholm, P.; Margolis, R.M.; Milford, J. “Production Cost Modeling for High Levels of Photovoltaics Penetration.” NREL/TP-581-42305. Golden, CO: National

Renewable Energy Laboratory. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/42305.pdf (February 2008)
NREL | 6

Curtailment in California

• During January – July 

2018, California curtailed 

over 315,000 MWh

• If California meets its 

50% Renewable Portfolio 

Standard target, up to 5% 

of the renewable 

electricity generated 

could be curtailed

Sources: CAISO Data from http://www.caiso.com/informed/Pages/ManagingOversupply.aspx. Accessed October 15, 2018 James Nelson 

& Laura Wisland. Achieving 50 Percent Renewable Energy in California. 

https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/08/Achieving-50-Percent-Renewable-Electricity-In-California.pdf (August 2015)

Monthly Curtailment in California
NREL | 7

Negative Electricity Prices

Curtailment 

often coincides 

with negative 

prices; negative 

price times are 

also increasing

Source: Jesper Slarn “Power Worth Less Than Zero Spreads as Green Energy Floods the Grid” 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-06/negative-prices-in-power-market-as-wind-solar-cut-electricity (August 5, 2018)

(2018 data is year-to-date through July)
NREL | 8

H2@Scale Opportunity

• Interface 

opportunities

• Value 

propositions lie 

across the make, 

move, use, and 

store focus areas

• Key drivers:

• Markets

• Linkages

• Partners
NREL | 9

Technology Development: 

Electrolysis

0.0

Capacity Factor

Cost of Electricity

Capital Cost

Efficiency (LHV)

Source: Bryan Pivovar “Introduction to H2@Scale” Presentation at 2017 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program Review. 

https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/06/f34/fcto_june_2017_h2_scale_review_pivovar.pdf (June 9, 2017)

• Electrolytic 

hydrogen has the 

potential to be 

cost competitive

• Need H2 market 

access

• Business 

opportunities:

• H2 production

• Electrolysis 

equipment 

and supply 

chain

Potential Levelized Costs of H2 Production
NREL | 10

Seasonal Storage Opportunity

• Analysis at 55% penetration of 

wind and solar in ERCOT with 

8.5 GW of storage capacity (1⁄3 of 

peaking capacity)

• Over 4% of electricity generated 

by wind and solar is curtailed at 

at 40 hours of storage duration

• Seasonal storage can overcome 

that limitation

Source: P. Denholm and T. Mai “Timescales of Energy Storage Needed for Reducing Renewable Energy Curtailment” NREL/TP-6A20-

68960. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68960.pdf (September 2017)
NREL | 11

Growing Opportunities for Ammonia

A large transport, storage, and distribution network exists & can 

leverage additional opportunities

Credit: Cedric Philibert “Green Hydrogen for the Chilean Energy Transition” (4 September 2018)
www.nrel.gov

Thank you

PR-6A20-72635 

This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, 

for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding provided by U.S. Department 

of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fuel Cell Technologies Office. The views expressed in the 

article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government retains and the 

publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paidup, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for 

U.S. Government purposes.
NREL | 13

Electricity Prices are Getting More 

Volatile

Source: Potomac Economics 2017 State of the Market Report for the MISO Electricity Market – Analytic Appendix (June 2018)

• Hours with 

energy at very 

low and very high 

prices are 

increasing

• Other revenue 

streams (e.g., 

capacity, services) 

are becoming 

more critical

• Impacting 

generators’ 

operations
NREL | 14

Example of an Ammonia Opportunity

• BASF and Yara opened a low-carbon 

ammonia plant in April

• Freeport, TX

• Primary hydrogen supply:

• By-product from Dow’s ethylene 

cracking units

• Economic drivers:

• Greener ammonia

• Linked to hydrogen pipeline and 

storage projects

• Reduction based on carbon credits

Source: 2018; https://ammoniaindustry.com/yara-and-basf-open-low-carbon-ammonia/