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67–625 2011

S. HRG. 109–1146 

IMPACT OF SEVERE HURRICANES 

ON BEAUFORT, SOUTH CAROLINA 

FIELD HEARING 

BEFORE THE

SUBCOMMITTEE ON DISASTER 

PREVENTION AND PREDICTION 

OF THE

COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, 

SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION 

UNITED STATES SENATE 

ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS 

SECOND SESSION 

AUGUST 17, 2006 

Printed for the use of the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation 

( 

(II) 

SENATE COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION 

ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS 

FIRST SESSION 

TED STEVENS, Alaska, Chairman 

JOHN MCCAIN, Arizona 

CONRAD BURNS, Montana 

TRENT LOTT, Mississippi 

KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON, Texas 

OLYMPIA J. SNOWE, Maine 

GORDON H. SMITH, Oregon 

JOHN ENSIGN, Nevada 

GEORGE ALLEN, Virginia 

JOHN E. SUNUNU, New Hampshire 

JIM DEMINT, South Carolina 

DAVID VITTER, Louisiana 

DANIEL K. INOUYE, Hawaii, Co-Chairman 

JOHN D. ROCKEFELLER IV, West Virginia 

JOHN F. KERRY, Massachusetts 

BYRON L. DORGAN, North Dakota 

BARBARA BOXER, California 

BILL NELSON, Florida 

MARIA CANTWELL, Washington 

FRANK R. LAUTENBERG, New Jersey 

E. BENJAMIN NELSON, Nebraska 

MARK PRYOR, Arkansas 

LISA J. SUTHERLAND, Republican Staff Director 

CHRISTINE DRAGER KURTH, Republican Deputy Staff Director 

KENNETH R. NAHIGIAN, Republican Chief Counsel 

MARGARET L. CUMMISKY, Democratic Staff Director and Chief Counsel 

SAMUEL E. WHITEHORN, Democratic Deputy Staff Director and General Counsel 

LILA HARPER HELMS, Democratic Policy Director 

SUBCOMMITTEE ON DISASTER PREVENTION AND PREDICTION

JIM DEMINT, South Carolina, Chairman 

TED STEVENS, Alaska 

GORDON H. SMITH, Oregon 

DAVID VITTER, Louisiana 

E. BENJAMIN NELSON, Nebraska 

MARIA CANTWELL, Washington 

BILL NELSON, Florida 

(III) 

C O N T E N T S 

Page 

Hearing held on August 17, 2006 ........................................................................... 1 

Statement of Senator DeMint ................................................................................. 1 

WITNESSES

Fowler, Rob, Chief Meteorologist, WCBD, Charleston, SC .................................. 8 

Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 9 

Jones, Jr., John E., Deputy Director, National Weather Service, NOAA, DOC . 14 

Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 17 

Lanham, Colonel Robert W., United States Marine Corps, Commanding Officer, Marine Corps Air Station, Beaufort, SC ..................................................... 3 

Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 6 

Winn, Jr., William, Director, Emergency Management Department, Beaufort 

County, SC ............................................................................................................ 10 

Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 13 

(1) 

IMPACT OF SEVERE HURRICANES ON 

BEAUFORT, SOUTH CAROLINA 

THURSDAY, AUGUST 17, 2006 

U.S. SENATE, SUBCOMMITTEE ON DISASTER PREVENTION AND PREDICTION, COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION, Beaufort, SC. 

The Subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:00 a.m. at the 

Marine Corps Air Station, Hon. Jim DeMint, Chairman of the Subcommittee, presiding. 

OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. JIM DEMINT, 

U.S. SENATOR FROM SOUTH CAROLINA 

Senator DEMINT. Good morning. Anyone who wants a seat, 

please come forward. 

I want to thank everyone for coming out, particularly our panel 

this morning. 

I’m Jim DeMint. I’m your United States Senator. And let me just 

take a minute to talk about the purpose of field hearings. 

What we try to do with field hearings is get a lot of information 

on the record that we can take back and use with our colleagues 

in Washington, with a lot of the staff on the Commerce Committee, 

and particularly my subcommittee, which is a new committee, that 

was actually formed after the tsunamis did so much damage a couple of years ago. We realized, as a Senate, as a Commerce Committee, that we needed to focus on getting prepared for disaster, 

and to do everything we can to prevent the loss of life and the loss 

of property. 

So this subcommittee is my committee, I’m Chairman of it. And 

so part of my job in the Senate is to help prepare the country for 

disasters, primarily natural disasters—hurricanes, earthquakes, 

tornadoes. 

But we found that there is a big crossover with the potential 

man-made disasters, terrorist attacks—a lot of the same warnings, 

a lot of the same evacuations, are becoming critically important. 

So we are working with the Homeland Security Department in 

trying to pull all of this together. 

The hearing today is very important. You’ll see that we have gotten the first responders here, we have our military, we have the 

weather service, we have the media; and all of these have to work 

together for the preparation, as well as the prevention aspects of 

disaster. 

So, I thank everyone for coming. I particularly want to thank the 

folks here at the Marine Corps Air Station, COL Lanham, the base 

2 

CO and LT COL Ward, who’s the base XO, LT COL Hamilton, who 

provided a great briefing this morning on how the base is working 

with the local community and first responders. That was very reassuring to see us getting prepared. Captain Ken Stiner who organized the whole thing, I thank you very much, Captain and Sergeant Major, thank you for allowing us to use the base as the facility. 

I found out this morning we are really on Mt. Beaufort, the highest point in the county, basically, here at the base, which I think 

is about 32 feet above sea level. 

But in the event of a storm, that’s just enough height to give us 

a little safety. 

I also want to thank all the enlisted folks who are here today. 

It’s a little sobering to think that at the first hearing that this 

committee did once it was formed, Senator David Vitter, the Junior 

Senator from Louisiana, made a presentation along with some folks 

from NOAA, about what would happen if a Category 4 or 5 hurricane hit the Gulf area, particularly around New Orleans. 

You will see a lot of maps today, about what happens in Category 1 or 2 around this part of the country, but we saw then the 

devastation that would happen in New Orleans if you got a Category 3 or higher that actually came ashore in New Orleans. 

And there was a pretty strong consensus that the levees would 

not hold. 

This has been known, I think, since the seventies. And I think 

there was a kind of an attitude this could never happen to us. 

But it is very sobering, that only a few months later, after that 

first hearing with that scenario of what would happen, Katrina hit 

New Orleans. And everything that had been predicted happened, 

just as we talked about it in committee. 

And it was about a year ago, that I was looking out the door of 

a Coast Guard Jayhawk helicopter flying over the coast of Mississippi and Louisiana, just looking at the destruction—seeing the 

concrete pads where houses used to be for mile after mile along the 

Mississippi coast, and the water still at the rooftops in New Orleans. 

It was really devastating, just from a property loss, but very 

heart wrenching just to see what people had worked for, for 

years—gone. 

I want to make sure we do everything we can in South Carolina, 

and other parts of the country, to keep that from happening again. 

In order for us to do it, we really have to be prepared. 

There’s not a lot we can do about a hurricane and where it goes. 

What we can do, though, is get better and better at tracking and 

predicting where it will hit, learning more and more about how to 

predict the intensity, so we are not caught off-guard by a storm 

that one day appears weak, and the next day it gains intensity too 

quickly for us to do a proper evacuation. 

The weather service has gotten better and better at tracking, we 

saw that with Katrina, literally within a few miles—more than two 

days before, we knew pretty much exactly where that storm was 

going to go. So, there was plenty of time for evacuation. The intensity in that case was pretty close; unfortunately, a lot of the population did not listen to the disaster predictions. 

3 

You know there are a number of things that we can look at, as 

far as minimizing the impact after a storm that’s coming ashore. 

As I mentioned, accurate predictions. 

One of the things we are also trying to avoid is over-evacuating. 

What I mean by that is, a storm is offshore, we evacuate too soon, 

we do it too often every time a storm gets here, and after a while, 

people don’t pay any attention to you. 

That was part of what was going on in Mississippi. They had 

been warned so many times, and it never really happened. And 

when it actually did, there were too many who had not evacuated; 

but, obviously, we don’t want to under-evacuate, which means to 

wait until it’s too late. 

Maybe we don’t define the area wide enough, so that people don’t 

evacuate when you should, and then we have a loss of life. That 

is something we can’t tolerate either. 

So, I’m interested in hearing from all of our panelists here about 

what we are going to do as a state, and hopefully some of the 

things we do here we can take to other parts of the country, and 

demonstrate how we can be more effectively prepared. 

We have an unusual situation here with the—I don’t know that 

it’s that unusual—a lot of bases around coastal areas, but having 

the Marine Corps here working with the folks in Beaufort, should 

give us some extra rescue capability, as well as just rebuilding once 

a storm hits. 

So, I want to start with COL Lanham, to get his opening statement. 

We have asked him to keep it to around five minutes. 

But since I’m the only one here, if you have got something to say 

that takes a little longer, I think we can be accommodating to that. 

And then we will just work our way down our panel, and I’ll just 

introduce each of you as we get to you. 

So Colonel, if you will kick us off this morning. 

STATEMENT OF COLONEL ROBERT W. LANHAM, UNITED 

STATES MARINE CORPS, COMMANDING OFFICER, MARINE 

CORPS AIR STATION, BEAUFORT, SC 

Colonel LANHAM. Sure will, sir. 

Senator DeMint, I would like to thank you for this opportunity 

to discuss the preparedness efforts of the civil and military communities here in the Lowcountry, and for your support of these efforts. 

I would also like to express the appreciation of both uniformed and 

civilian Marines, Sailors and military families here in Beaufort 

County for all that you have done to support our efforts here and 

around the world. 

These are indeed challenging times. We face enemies abroad that 

have little regard for the ideals we Americans hold dearly. On the 

home front, we must also remain prepared for the unique challenges that nature can steer our way. 

Just as shared awareness, cooperating and training with international partners can open doors and new opportunities for 

progress in the war against extremism, so we can foster long-term 

relationships and a spirit of cooperation here in the Lowcountry to 

meet the challenges at home. It is this spirit of cooperation that I 

would like to focus on today. 

4 

MCAS Beaufort’s field elevation is 37′—among the highest elevations in Beaufort County. The Air Station is located right along 

the northern county’s main storm recovery route, Highway 21. 

The last large-scale evacuation occurred just prior to Hurricane 

Floyd in September 1999. During that evacuation, long traffic 

delays were one of the primary challenges, as there are only a few 

routes and bridges off of the islands making up most of the county. 

This geographical fact complicates execution of our plans and timing of critical decisions. 

MCAS Beaufort has taken a pro-active and cooperative position 

with regard to prior planning, evacuation coordination and recovery 

efforts within the Tri-Command—our three military bases including the Air Station, Parris Island Recruit Depot, and the Beaufort 

Naval Hospital—as well as with our local and state governmental 

partners. 

Additionally, we are currently completing formal agreements to 

allow life flight evacuations of Beaufort Memorial Hospital patients 

from the Air Station. 

In conjunction with city and county agencies, and our Tri-Command partners, detailed planning and pre-hurricane season exercises are conducted annually. These efforts ensure hurricane preparedness through inspections of our facilities and base housing, 

hurricane supply lockers, emergency meal rations, security, and 

evacuation procedures. All tenant units, commands and sections 

aboard the Air Station provide Destructive Weather representatives to the Operations Department, and directly participate in the 

annual training exercise. We utilize five hurricane conditions of 

readiness, based upon hurricane strength and proximity to our installations. Each condition has immediate action guidelines/steps to 

be accomplished once the condition is set. Hurricane Condition-5 

HC–5 is a seasonal condition set from 1 June to 30 November. HC– 

4 is set 72 hours prior to the expected storm landfall in the local 

area. HC–3 is set 48 hours; HC–2, 24 hours, and HC–1, 12 hours 

prior to landfall. 

This system provides for a comprehensive notification process of 

the potential impact of a hurricane to all personnel. All hands receive annual hurricane briefs, and are provided preparedness handouts that specifically address conditions of readiness, appropriate 

evacuation procedures, and recommended personal evacuation supplies/kits. 

We also take care to push all available information to our military families through the base newspapers, e-mail notifications, 

Internet websites, handouts, and ‘‘town meetings.’’ 

In the event of an actual hurricane, time-critical information is 

distributed to all commands via multiple sources: e-mail, automated call-down phone notification, Public Affairs Office marquees, 

and our military television channel. 

The resident Marine Aircraft Group and one Navy squadron fly 

all operating aircraft to either Texas or Ohio. Any remaining aircraft are placed in available hangars. 

There is an agreement in place to allow the county to preposition 

vehicles aboard the air station during an evacuation. 

These vehicles would be utilized in direct support to the recovery 

effort in the aftermath of a significant event. 

5 

Military personnel, their families and the air station civilian 

staff/workforce are expected to self-evacuate. At the Commanding 

Officer’s direction, a minimal cadre of essential personnel is designated to remain at the air station. 

Should the intensity of the storm require the Beaufort County 

government to evacuate, the Air Station has an agreement to send 

upwards of 200 personnel to their fall-back site located at the 

Allendale-Fairfax High School to ride out the storm. 

In advance of the storm’s landfall, we plan to pre-position generators, water trailers, heavy equipment, and vehicles on the relative high ground of our flight-line, so it will remain accessible and 

reasonably free of trees, power lines, and potential storm surge 

flood waters. 

MCAS Beaufort coordinates directly with the Beaufort County 

Emergency Management Division. They allow us direct representation in their downtown emergency Operations Center to assist in 

disseminating time-critical storm information and coordinating our 

efforts. 

Additionally, along with the other town managers and mayors 

from within the county, we are invited to call in and participate on 

the county’s conference calls with the Governor’s office to discuss 

courses of action and potential timelines for mandatory evacuation 

orders. 

We have established communications connectivity through a 

dedicated fiberoptic line from our EOC to the county’s traffic control fiber network, which is also linked directly to the Beaufort 

County EOC. 

We have two computers in the EOC that are directly linked to 

the Beaufort County network. This allows for MCAS personnel to 

access Web-EOC, ThinkMap Geographic Information Systems (GIS) 

(provides updated county aerial photos, including flood data projection overlays) and access to all 37 county traffic control cameras. 

In this way, emergency planners and decisionmakers are all on 

the same page, provided the same information, and are using the 

same software to assist in more effective and coordinated decisionmaking. 

Direct-line telephone connections run between the Air Station, 

Parris Island, Beaufort Naval Hospital, and the Beaufort County 

EOC. Additionally, Beaufort County programs all of our 800 MHz 

radios. Currently, we have 36 of these on hand: 27 hand-helds, five 

vehicle-mounted and four base-stations. 

This capability allows for interoperable and mutual support during evacuation and recovery, and provides for an alternate means 

of communication between the EOCs. 

Once the storm passes, these same communications links and 

planning and decision tools will facilitate execution of coordinated 

recovery plans, beginning with whatever is required to respond to 

the situation as it develops. 

Clearing highways, making early assessments, and establishing 

power, communication, and access for safety and security personnel 

will likely be early priorities. 

No one can predict the precise effects of strong storms and what 

they will leave in their wake, but here in the Lowcountry, we are 

trying to imagine and prepare for numerous contingencies. 

6 

Our planning efforts have been consciously tied together, our infrastructure put into place with mutual support and coordination 

in mind, and our recovery planning and execution have been designed to succeed as much as our resources will possibly allow. We 

cannot guarantee success, but we are confident that we can make 

sound decisions and enhance the safety and security of our people. 

Again, Senator, thank you for your time and support, and for allowing us to participate in this hearing today. 

[The prepared statement of Colonel Lanham follows:] 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF COLONEL ROBERT W. LANHAM, UNITED STATES MARINE

CORPS, COMMANDING OFFICER, MARINE CORPS AIR STATION, BEAUFORT, SC 

Senator DeMint, I would like to thank you for this opportunity to discuss the preparedness efforts of the civil and military communities here in the Lowcountry and 

for your support of these efforts. I would also like to express the appreciation of both 

uniformed and civilian Marines, Sailors, and military families here in Beaufort 

County for all that you have done to support our efforts here and around the world. 

These are indeed challenging times. We face enemies abroad that have little regard for the ideals we Americans hold dearly. On the home front, we must also remain prepared for the unique challenges that nature can steer our way. 

Just as shared awareness, cooperating and training with international partners 

can open doors and new opportunities for progress in the war against extremism, 

so we can foster long-term relationships, and a spirit of cooperation, here in the 

Lowcountry to meet the challenges at home. It is this spirit of cooperation that I 

would like to focus on today. 

MCAS Beaufort’s field elevation is 37′—among the highest elevations in Beaufort 

County. The Air Station is located right along the northern county’s main storm recovery route, Highway 21. 

The last large-scale evacuation occurred just prior to Hurricane Floyd in September 1999. During that evacuation, long traffic delays were one of the primary 

challenges, as there are only a few routes and bridges off of the islands making up 

most of the county. This geographical fact complicates execution of our plans and 

timing of critical decisions. 

MCAS Beaufort has taken a pro-active and cooperative position with regard to 

prior planning, evacuation coordination, and recovery efforts within the Tri-Command—our three military bases including the Air Station, Parris Island Recruit 

Depot, and the Beaufort Naval Hospital—as well as with our local and state governmental partners. Additionally, we are currently completing formal agreements to 

allow life flight evacuations of Beaufort Memorial Hospital patients from the air station. 

Planning 

In conjunction with city and county agencies, and our Tri-Command partners, detailed planning and pre-hurricane season exercises are conducted annually. These 

efforts ensure hurricane preparedness through inspections of our facilities and base 

housing, hurricane supply lockers, emergency meal rations, security, and evacuation 

procedures. All tenant units, commands, and sections aboard the air station provide 

Destructive Weather representatives to the Operations Department and directly 

participate in the annual training exercise. We utilize five hurricane conditions of 

readiness, based upon hurricane strength and proximity to our installations. Each 

condition has immediate action guidelines/steps to be accomplished once the condition is set. Hurricane Condition-5 (HC–5) is a seasonal condition set from 1 June 

to 30 November. HC–4 is set 72 hours prior to the expected storm landfall in the 

local area. HC–3 is set 48 hours; HC–2, 24 hours, and HC–1, 12 hours prior to landfall. 

This system provides for a comprehensive notification process of the potential impact of a hurricane to all personnel. All hands receive annual hurricane briefs and 

are provided preparedness handouts that specifically address conditions of readiness, appropriate evacuation procedures, and recommended personal evacuation 

supplies/kits. We also take care to push all available information to our military 

families through the base newspapers, e-mail notifications, Internet websites, handouts and, ‘‘town meetings.’’ 

In the event of an actual hurricane, time-critical information is distributed to all 

commands via multiple sources: e-mail, automated call-down phone notification, 

Public Affairs Office marquees and our military television channel. The resident 

7 

Marine Aircraft Group and one Navy squadron fly all operating aircraft to either 

Texas or Ohio. Any remaining aircraft are placed in available hangars. There is an 

agreement in place to allow the County to preposition vehicles aboard the air station 

during an evacuation. These vehicles would be utilized in direct support to the recovery effort in the aftermath of a significant event. 

Military personnel, their families and the air station civilian staff/workforce are 

expected to self-evacuate. At the Commanding Officer’s direction, a minimal cadre 

of essential personnel is designated to remain at the air station. Should the intensity of the storm require the Beaufort County government to evacuate, The Air Station has an agreement to send upwards of 200 personnel to their fall-back site located at the Allendale-Fairfax High School to ride out the storm. 

In advance of the storm’s landfall, we plan to pre-position generators, water trailers, heavy equipment and vehicles on the relative high ground of our flight-line so 

it will remain accessible and reasonably free of trees, power lines and potential 

storm surge flood waters. 

Air Station personnel are organized into emergency support teams including 

Emergency Operations Center (EOC) staff, weather service personnel, shelter management teams, communications support teams, electrical repair teams, heavy 

equipment operators, medical and emergency support teams, and Military Policy security teams. 

Coordination 

MCAS Beaufort coordinates directly with the Beaufort County Emergency Management Division. They allow us direct representation in their downtown Emergency Operations Center to assist in disseminating time critical storm information 

and coordinating our efforts. Additionally, along with the other town managers and 

mayors from within the county, we are invited to call-in and participate on the 

county’s conference calls with the Governor’s office to discuss courses of action and 

potential time-lines for mandatory evacuation orders. 

We have established communications connectivity through a dedicated fiberoptic 

line from our EOC to the county’s traffic control fiber network, which is also linked 

directly to the Beaufort County EOC. 

We have two computers in the EOC that are directly linked to the Beaufort County network. This allows for MCAS personnel to access Web-EOC, ThinkMap Geographic Information Systems (GIS) (provides updated county aerial photos, including flood data projection overlays), and access to all 37 county traffic control cameras. In this way, emergency planners and decisionmakers are all on the same page, 

provided the same information, and are using the same software to assist in more 

effective and coordinated decisionmaking. 

Direct-line telephone connections run between the Air Station, Parris Island, 

Beaufort Naval Hospital, and the Beaufort County EOC. Additionally, Beaufort 

County programs all of our 800 MHz radios. Currently, we have (36) of these on 

hand: 27 hand-helds, 5 vehicle-mounted and 4 base-stations. This capability allows 

for interoperable and mutual support during evacuation and recovery, and provides 

for an alternate means of communication between the EOCs. 

Recovery 

Once the storm passes, these same communications links and planning and decision tools will facilitate execution of coordinated recovery plans, beginning with 

whatever is required to respond to the situation as it develops. Clearing highways, 

making early assessments, and establishing power, communication, and access for 

safety and security personnel will likely be early priorities. 

No one can predict the precise effects of strong storms and what they will leave 

in their wake, but here in the Lowcountry, we are trying to imagine and prepare 

for numerous contingencies. Our planning efforts have been consciously tied together, our infrastructure put into place with mutual support and coordination in 

mind, and our recovery planning and execution have been designed to succeed as 

much as our resources will possibly allow. We cannot guarantee success, but we are 

confident that we can make sound decisions and enhance the safety and security 

of our people. 

Again, Senator, thank you for your time and support, and for allowing us to participate in this hearing today. 

Senator DEMINT. Thank you, Colonel. And before I introduce Mr. 

Fowler, Senator Inouye is the Ranking Member on the Commerce 

Committee. And one of his top staffers, Helen Colosimo is here. 

8 

Helen, if you will just raise your hand, so folks will know you are 

here. I appreciate you coming to listen in. 

Rob Fowler is the Chief Meteorologist for WCBD in Charleston, 

and has guided large part of South Carolina through a number of 

storms. 

Rob, the media is critical in getting peoples’ attention. In fact, we 

in the government, NOAA, can do very little unless folks believe 

you when you tell them. 

So, we appreciate what you have done in the past, and your willingness to participate as part of this team to get South Carolina 

ready. 

Mr. Fowler. 

STATEMENT OF ROB FOWLER, CHIEF METEOROLOGIST, 

WCBD, CHARLESTON, SC 

Mr. FOWLER. Thank you, Senator. This is an honor to talk to you. 

I usually talk to second graders. 

Senator DEMINT. That’s about the reading level here in the Senate. 

Mr. FOWLER. I’ll keep it all the same. 

It is hard to believe it has been almost 17 years since Hurricane 

Hugo hit the South Carolina coast. A lot has happened since that 

time, and during that time, no other major hurricane has made 

landfall along our beautiful beaches. 

It pains me to think about these days before, during, and especially after the storm. 

I came to Channel 2 in Charleston in 1987 from Green Bay, Wisconsin. 

I told my wife we were going on a long honeymoon in a beautiful 

coastal city. 

Little did I know at the time, the honeymoon would only last two 

years, and our lives were about to be turned upside down. 

As a broadcast meteorologist, Hurricane Hugo was a lesson you 

would never learn in a college classroom. 

Because of that, it has been my responsibility to report, to the 

best of my ability, the potential tropical dangers, from the coast of 

Africa, to the Bahamas, to the Gulf of Mexico, and everywhere else 

in between. 

I remember Tropical Storm Gaston. It looked like a hurricane, 

did damage like a hurricane, but was only upgraded to a hurricane 

later in the season, in November. 

It showed people that it doesn’t take much to get your attention, 

and a slow-moving category one hurricane can do quite a bit of 

damage. It doesn’t always have to be the monster storm for us to 

stand up and take notice. 

We are blessed in this community in that we have many people 

who have been through hurricanes before. They know what to expect. We rely on their expertise and experiences to spread the word 

to others. 

The problem is, there are many more ‘‘others’’ than ever before. 

More and more people are moving to the coast, putting more people at risk when a hurricane threatens. 

Along the South Carolina coast, we know it is not a matter of ‘‘if’’ 

but a matter of ‘‘when.’’ 

9 

That is why we have formulated a very close relationship with 

the National Weather Service in Charleston. 

We know we are going to need their help in the future, and we 

know we, the media, will be needed, as well. 

We have worked together closely for a long time, in fact. 

I spent the night at the National Weather Service office in 

Charleston the night Hurricane Hugo hit. 

When the roof sounded like it was about to be pulled off in the 

middle of the night, you have never seen 13 meteorologists move 

faster than we did heading to the bathroom, which was the designated safe-room at that facility. 

The last two years for us have been very stressful, and it has 

prompted all of us to ramp-up our hurricane speeches and presentations. 

I don’t think there is one person in our viewing area who at one 

time or another looked at Florida in 2004, and the Gulf Coast in 

2005, and said: ‘‘That could be me.’’ 

That is why we have tried to get out to as many community 

groups, civic organizations, senior citizen complexes, churches, hospitals, and schools and get the word out: Get ready now. Don’t wait 

until the storm is here. Know what you are going to do, and get 

your kit ready, just in case. 

To the kids out there, make sure you tell your parents to have 

a plan on when and where you are going to evacuate. 

Parents, make sure your kids understand what is happening. Let 

them be a part of the decisionmaking process. Teach them what 

they need to know and do. 

In closing, we know we are in a very active tropical cyclone pattern. Is it global warming or just the natural, cyclical way the 

earth and its atmosphere changes? Whatever the reason, we need 

to remember that we have chosen to live along this beautiful coast 

for a special reason. 

Unfortunately, there is a risk involved. And all of us need to understand and accept that risk, so that when the next one comes, 

we will be ready, willing, and able to either stay and protect ourselves and our family, or leave. 

The choice is yours. The decision is yours. My job is to make sure 

you have all the necessary facts to make that decision. 

[The prepared statement of Mr. Fowler follows:] 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF ROB FOWLER, CHIEF METEOROLOGIST, 

WCBD, CHARLESTON, SC 

It is hard to believe it has been almost 17 years since Hurricane Hugo hit the 

South Carolina coast. 

A lot has happened since that time, and during that time, no other major hurricane has made landfall along our beautiful beaches. It pains me to think about 

those days before, during, and especially after the storm. I came to Channel 2 in 

Charleston, in 1987, from Green Bay, Wisconsin. I told my wife we were going on 

a long honeymoon in a beautiful coastal city. 

Little did I know at the time the honeymoon would only last 2 years, and our lives 

were about to be turned upside down. 

As a broadcast meteorologist, Hurricane Hugo was a lesson you could never learn 

in a college classroom. 

Because of that, it has been my responsibility to report, to the best of my ability, 

the potential tropical dangers, from the coast of Africa, to the Bahamas, and to the 

Gulf of Mexico, and everywhere else in between. 

10 

I remember Tropical Storm Gaston forming off of our coast 2 years ago. Yes, at 

the time, it was Tropical Storm Gaston. It looked like a hurricane, did damage like 

a hurricane, but was only upgraded to a hurricane later in the season, in November. 

It showed people that it doesn’t take much to get your attention, and a slow moving 

Category 1 hurricane can do quite a bit of damage. It doesn’t always have to be the 

monster storm for us to stand up and take notice. 

We are blessed in this community in that we have many people who have been 

through hurricanes before. 

They know what to expect. We rely on their expertise and experiences to spread 

the word to others. 

The problem is, there are many more ‘‘others’’ than ever before. More and more 

people are moving to the coast, putting more people at risk when a hurricane 

threatens. Along the South Carolina coast, we know it is not a matter of ‘‘if,’’ but 

a matter of ‘‘when.’’ 

That is why we have formulated a very close relationship with the National 

Weather Service in Charleston. We know we are going to need their help in future, 

and we know we, the media, will be needed as well. We have worked together closely for a long time; in fact, I spent the night at the National Weather Service office 

in Charleston the night Hurricane Hugo hit. When the roof sounded like it was 

about to be pulled off in the middle of the night, you have never seen 13 meteorologists move faster than we did heading to the bathroom, which was the designated 

‘‘safe room’’ at that facility. The last two years for us have been very stressful, and 

it has prompted all of us to ramp-up our hurricane speeches and presentations. I 

don’t think there is one person in our viewing area who, at one time or another, 

looked at Florida in 2004 and the Gulf Coast in 2005, and said ‘‘that could be me.’’ 

That is why we have tried to get out to as many community groups, civic organizations, senior citizen complexes, churches, hospitals, and schools and get the word 

out. GET READY NOW! Don’t wait until the storm is here. Know what you are 

going to do, and get your kit ready, just in case. To the kids out there, make sure 

you tell your parents to have a plan on when and where you are going to evacuate. 

Parents, make sure your kids understand what is happening. Let them be a part 

of the decisionmaking process. Teach them what they need to know and do. 

In closing, we know we are in a very active tropical cyclone pattern. Is it global 

warming, or just the natural, cyclical way the Earth and its atmosphere changes. 

Whatever the reason, we need to remember that we have chosen to live along this 

beautiful coast for a special reason. Unfortunately, there is a risk involved, and all 

of us need to understand and accept that risk, so when the next one comes, we will 

be ready, willing, and able, to either stay and protect ourselves and our family, or 

leave. The choice is yours. The decision is yours. My job is to make sure you have 

all of the necessary facts to make that decision. 

Senator DEMINT. Thank you, Mr. Fowler. 

One of the things we learned from Hurricane Katrina is that the 

Federal Government is not going to be there the next morning to 

take care of everything. 

A lot of folks have blamed FEMA. Certainly, we had a lot of 

problems and still are having them. 

So we are leaving a lot there. The whole purpose of FEMA is to 

come in two, three, four days after a disaster and support First Responders and local emergency folks. 

We have done that well in the past in South Carolina. We know 

it’s our responsibility. William Winn is the Director of the Beaufort 

County Department of Emergency Management. 

It’s his job to coordinate our preparation and to have a plan in 

place. 

I am encouraged by what I have heard about how you are working with the base and others. 

Mr. Winn, we are looking forward to your testimony. 

STATEMENT OF WILLIAM WINN, JR., DIRECTOR, EMERGENCY 

MANAGEMENT DEPARTMENT, BEAUFORT COUNTY, SC 

Mr. WINN. Thank you, sir. 

11 

Senator DeMint, it is a pleasure today to address you, and the 

Senate Subcommittee on the preparedness issues facing Beaufort 

County. 

As the Director of Emergency Management for Beaufort County, 

I have had the experience of evacuating this county on five different occasions. As the only county in South Carolina that requires an entire evacuation to include all levels of government, we 

face a substantial challenge to develop and maintain the level of 

readiness necessary to accomplish that mission. 

Beaufort County and the State of South Carolina, in its commitment to residents and visitors have developed an in-depth evacuation plan. In cooperating with our state partners, we believe that 

we have the ability to fully implement that plan, and successfully 

evacuate those residents who want to leave. 

Much of our ability to successfully evacuate depends upon accurate and timely weather information that is presented to us in a 

format that is convincing to the public of the necessity to leave. 

The Charleston National Weather Service Office, who provides 

our local information, has in the past, and we feel confident in the 

future, being able to provide these services. 

As good as the people are in the Charleston National Weather 

Service Office, they can be no better than the forecast given to 

them by the National Hurricane Center. 

In the past, and even today, we have continually seen improvements in their forecast. 

This rate of improvement cannot end. Adequate funding, training, and applying knowledge learned must be maintained on a level 

necessary to keep evacuation plans current and effective. 

Out-of-date and unrealistic replacement times for hurricane evacuation studies must end. 

Let me encourage you to revitalize a successful plan to update 

the South Carolina Hurricane Evacuation Study, as well as those 

in other areas. 

But equally important is to ensure that the National Hurricane 

Center and the Local Emergency Performance Grants Program be 

fully funded, to allow continued improvements in hurricane forecasting and provide qualified Emergency Managers for local communities. 

This year, Beaufort County developed two new systems to better 

serve our residents before and during evacuations. 

First, we purchased and installed a telephone emergency alert 

system to allow us to direct call all our residents to ensure they 

are aware of evacuation and storm threat; 

Second, we have purchased a toll-free number for all residents to 

use to contact Beaufort County for reentry and situation reports affecting the county reentry and recovery. This will allow our citizens 

to determine the situation they will be facing as they return to 

their homes and jobs. 

Beaufort County has also invested in a second toll-free number 

for government employees to call for storm reentry. All municipalities, state, and Federal agencies in Beaufort County participate in 

this program. 

12 

We have established a reentry pass system that allows us to 

bring specific government and private groups quickly back into the 

county to clear highways and establish medical facilities. 

As an educational effort, Beaufort County and the Town of Hilton Head Island have developed two hurricane preparedness brochures for distribution to the public. 

These are basic instructions along with our toll-free number. The 

second brochure is simply twenty questions to ask your insurance 

company. 

As of today, we have distributed over 30,000 of these brochures. 

To ensure adequate communications, Beaufort County has purchased and installed three satellite communications systems, and 

a fourth was just funded. 

With a major storm such as a CAT 4 or 5, we have developed 

continuity of government planning to allow us to move our command and control facilities out of the county. 

This coming year, we have allocated funds to construct a backup facility in another county to ensure back-up capacities for our 

computer systems. 

Beaufort County has created a Hurricane Recovery Task force to 

develop a long-term recovery plan. 

The Town of Hilton Head Island has completed its base recovery 

plan and is now developing implementation guidelines. 

And lastly, we have established a county-wide fiber network to 

interconnect all of our command and control facilities along with 

municipalities, Federal, and state agencies. 

This network allows over 300 users quick and effective communications with our EOC, and to share information quickly. 

Beaufort County is very fortunate in experiencing a strong working relationship with the MCAS, MCRD, and Beaufort Naval Hospital. 

Through a dedicated effort, we have achieved successful integration of emergency operations with all three bases. 

Interoperability of radio communication has been achieved. 

With all of the improvements to our plans, there remains a critical issue that provides a growing threat to our successful evacuation. 

That threat is the lack of sufficient highway infrastructure to 

carry the evacuation traffic. 

Unless we see the immediate planning and construction of a 

four-lane, multi-use highway out of the South Carolina Lowcountry 

into the Aiken/Augusta area, our future ability to evacuate is in 

jeopardy. 

My emphasis to you today is preparedness and partnerships. 

Only through cooperation on the local, state and Federal level have 

we, and will we be able to educate the public and convince them 

of the need for personal preparedness. 

Thank you for your time today, and it has been an honor for me 

to have this opportunity. 

[The prepared statement of Mr. Winn follows:] 

13 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF WILLIAM WINN, JR., DIRECTOR, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT DEPARTMENT, BEAUFORT COUNTY, SC 

Senator DeMint, it is a pleasure today to address you, and Senate Subcommittee, 

on the preparedness issues facing Beaufort County. As the Director of Emergency 

Management for Beaufort County, I have had the experience of evacuating this 

county on five different occasions. As the only county in South Carolina that requires an entire evacuation to include all levels of government, we face a substantial 

challenge to develop and maintain the level of readiness necessary to accomplish 

that mission. 

Beaufort County and the State of South Carolina, in its commitment to residents 

and visitors have developed an in-depth evacuation plan. In cooperation with our 

state partners, we believe that we have the ability to fully implement that plan and 

successfully evacuate those residents who want to leave. 

Much of our ability to successfully evacuate depends upon accurate and timely 

weather information that is presented to us in a format that is convincing to the 

public of the necessity to leave. The Charleston National Weather Service Office, 

who provides our local information, has in the past, and we feel confident in the 

future being able to provide these services. 

As good as the people are in the Charleston National Weather Service Office, they 

can be no better than the forecast given to them by the National Hurricane Center. 

In the past, and even today, we have continually seen improvements in their forecast. This rate of improvement cannot end. Adequate funding, training and applying 

knowledge learned must be maintained on a level necessary to keep evacuation 

plans current and effective. Out-of-date and unrealistic replacement times for hurricane evacuation studies must end. Let me encourage you to revitalize a successful 

plan to update the South Carolina Hurricane Evacuation Study as well as those in 

other areas. 

But equally important is to ensure that the National Hurricane Center and the 

Local Emergency Performance Grants Program be fully funded, to allow continued 

improvements in hurricane forecasting, and provide qualified Emergency Managers 

for local communities. 

This year Beaufort County developed two new systems to better serve our residents before and during evacuations. First, we purchased and installed a telephone 

emergency alert system to allow us to direct-call all our residents to ensure they 

are aware of evacuation and the storm threat. 

Second, we have purchased a toll free number for all residents to use to contact 

Beaufort County for re-entry, and situation reports affecting the county reentry and 

recovery. This will allow our citizens to determine the situation they will be facing 

as they return to their homes and jobs. 

Beaufort County has also invested in a second toll free number for government 

employees to call for storm re-entry. All municipalities, state, and Federal agencies 

in Beaufort County participate in this program. 

We have established a reentry pass system that allows us to bring specific government and private groups quickly back into the county to clear highways and establish medical facilities. 

As an educational effort Beaufort County, and the Town of Hilton Head Island, 

have developed two hurricane preparedness brochures for distribution to the public. 

These are basic instructions along with our toll free numbers. The second brochure 

is a simple twenty questions to ask your insurance company. As of today we have 

distributed over 30,000 of these brochures. 

To ensure adequate communications, Beaufort County has purchased and installed three satellite communications systems, and a fourth was just funded. 

With a major storm such as a CAT 4 or 5, we have developed continuity of government planning to allow us to move our command and control facilities out of the 

county. This coming year we have allocated funds to construct a back-up facility in 

another county to ensure back-up capacities for our computer systems. 

Beaufort County has created a Hurricane Recovery Task Force to develop a longterm recovery plan. The Town of Hilton Head Island has completed its base recovery 

plan and is now developing implementation guidelines. 

And lastly, we have established a county-wide fiber network to interconnect all 

of our command and control facilities along with municipalities, Federal and state 

agencies. This network allows over 300 users quick and effective communications 

with our EOC and to share information quickly. 

Beaufort County is very fortunate in experiencing a strong working relationship 

with the MCAS, MCRD, and Beaufort Naval Hospital. Through a dedicated effort 

we have achieved successful integration of emergency operations with all three 

bases. Interoperability of radios communications has been achieved. 

14 

With all of the improvements to our plans, there remains a critical issue that provides a growing threat to our successful evacuation. That threat is the lack of sufficient highway infrastructure to carry the evacuation traffic. Unless we see the immediate planning and construction of a four lane multi-use highway out of the 

South Carolina Lowcountry into the Aiken/Augusta area, our future ability to evacuate is in jeopardy. 

My emphasis to you today is preparedness and partnerships. Only through cooperation of the local, state, and Federal level have we, and will we be able to educate the public and convince them of the need for personal preparedness. 

Thank you for your time today, and it has been an honor for me to have this opportunity. 

Senator DEMINT. Thank you, Mr. Winn. Perhaps some questions 

in a minute, but I want to introduce Mr. John Jones, who is a Deputy Director of the National Weather Service. 

Mr. Jones, we very much appreciate you being here today, and 

looking forward to your presentation. 

STATEMENT OF JOHN E. JONES, JR., DEPUTY DIRECTOR, 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, NOAA, DOC 

Mr. JONES. Thank you, Senator. Thank you for inviting me here 

today to join you and the illustrative panel—— 

Senator DEMINT. Pull the microphone a little—— 

Mr. JONES.—to join you and the illustrative panel you have gathered here. 

I would like to spend a few minutes talking about the outlook for 

the remainder of the 2006 hurricane season, threats posed to South 

Carolina by hurricanes and tropical systems, and the roles and 

services of the National Weather Service. 

We appreciate the support this committee has given to NOAA, 

which enables us to provide weather, water, and climate forecasts, 

to the American people. 

Last year’s hurricane season set records for the number of hurricanes and tropical storms. 

However, whether we are predicting an above-average hurricane 

season, like last year, or below-average hurricane season, the message is the same, you have already heard it from everyone here on 

this panel: Prepare. Prepare. Prepare. 

It takes only one powerful hurricane like Katrina last year, or 

Andrew in 1992, or Hugo in 1989, to expose our vulnerabilities. 

The official hurricane season began June 1 and runs through November 30. The average peak of activity occurs with the warmest 

water temperatures, which is right now, the middle of August, 

through the end of October. 

On August 8, NOAA revised, slightly downward, its prediction of 

tropical systems for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. 

NOAA is now predicting a total of 12–15 tropical storms, with 

seven to nine becoming hurricanes. 

Of those, we predict three to four will be major hurricanes, what 

we call category three or higher, pacing winds over 110 miles per 

hour. These category three storms are the ones likely to cause the 

most extensive damage. So far this year, there have been three 

tropical storms, none of which became a hurricane. 

Our seasonal forecast comes from many favorable conditions, including warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin, 

15 

combined with low wind shear, lower surface pressures and an African easterly jet stream. 

Many believe these favorable conditions, which came together 

around 1995, are part of a multi-decadal climate pattern that last 

peaked in the 1950s and 1960s. 

This pattern could keep us in an active period for major hurricanes for another 10 to 20 years or more. 

One question often raised is the role that climate change plays 

in hurricane frequency and intensity. 

NOAA research suggests both natural- and human-induced climate change may impact hurricane frequency and/or intensity. 

However, our science is not mature enough to determine what 

percentage of human-induced climate change and what percentage 

of natural climate variability impacts hurricane frequency and intensity. 

In addition, our current state of science cannot attribute global 

warming to a particular storm or particular season. 

Our meteorologists and research scientists are actively engaged 

in ongoing research to better understand how climate variability 

and change may affect hurricanes. 

It takes only one hurricane to hit a community to make for a bad 

year. 

Just recall Hugo, which hit South Carolina in 1989. Its center 

made landfall just north of Charleston with a large storm surge up 

to 20 feet high. 

The impacts of Hurricane Hugo also reached well inland. 

Heavy rain and strong winds devastated many portion of North 

and South Carolina, knocking down trees and disrupting power 

supplies for over a month in some areas. 

Hurricane Katrina is a grim reminder that the greatest potential 

for large loss of life is from the storm surge. 

Storm surge is very difficult to predict, because it depends on the 

exact hurricane track and wind field. 

It is also affected by the slope of the ocean floor, topography, and 

natural and man-made barriers, such as dunes and roadways. 

A slight difference in track or wind field can mean a huge difference in where the highest storm surge impacts the coast. 

NOAA’s Storm Surge Model, known as SLOSH, is used by emergency managers in their evacuation planning, and provided excellent guidance during last year’s hurricanes. 

Let’s look at the potential storm surge from a hurricane making 

landfall near Beaufort, South Carolina. 

The model we are showing on the screen depicts the storm surge 

from a category one hurricane moving to the north-northwest at 35 

miles per hour. 

The storm surge reaches about six feet high along the coast, and 

the high tide could increase the total water level by five feet. 

This means the water level in Beaufort could be as high as about 

11 feet. 

Now we’re looking at a projection of a storm surge from a category five hurricane. Notice how much farther inland the storm 

surge flooding penetrates. A landfalling category five hurricane 

could cause a surge of water almost 20 feet high, devastating evVerDate Nov 24 2008 13:19 Aug 03, 2011 Jkt 067625 PO 00000 Frm 00019 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6601 S:\GPO\DOCS\67625.TXT SCOM1 PsN: JACKIE
16 

erything in its path. A high tide could increase this even more, and 

the water could be over 25 feet keep in downtown Beaufort. 

The Queen of the Carolina Sea Islands could be inundated, and 

its tabby ruins, historic forts, elegant homes, and majestic plantations damaged or destroyed. 

Not only is the mission of the National Weather Service to forecast the potential hurricane surge threats you just saw, but we also 

forecast the inland threats from these storms. 

The National Hurricane Center, or NHC, has been the centerpiece of our Nation’s hurricane forecast and warning program for 

50 years. 

NHC is responsible for predicting the path and intensity of the 

system, issuing coastal hurricane watches and warnings, and describing broad effects to the areas impacted, including projected 

storm surge levels. 

Local National Weather Service Forecast Offices, or WFOs, also 

play a critical role in this process. 

WFOs use their local expertise to refine NHC advisories and provide specific, detailed information about the impacts from the hurricane to their local forecast area of responsibility. 

WFOs issue inland hurricane and tropical storm warnings, describe the local impacts from the storms, and provide forecasts and 

warnings for all inland effects, including floods, flash floods, strong 

wind, and tornadoes. 

The offices work closely with local emergency managers to ensure 

they are aware of the potential affects from the storms. 

Local media relay National Weather Service watch and warning 

information to the public, providing a critical way to disseminate 

potential life-saving information. 

Improving hurricane forecasting is a top priority for the Administration. NOAA has made great strides in improving hurricane 

track forecasting; our five-day forecasts are now as accurate as our 

three to four day forecasts were 15 years ago. 

NOAA continues to improve our hurricane track and intensity 

forecasting through better observations and modeling efforts. 

One of the tools we use to make observations in and near hurricanes is reconnaissance aircraft. 

The Gulf Stream IV, which we have here today, is equipped to 

obtain data from the environment surrounding the hurricane. 

This information is fed into our computer models, which then 

provide forecast guidance to assist NHC forecasters with predicting 

hurricane track and intensity. 

Where will the next hurricane hit? Could it be the Gulf Coast 

again? Maybe. 

How about New England? Or New York City? It’s possible. 

What about South Carolina? 

The truth is, no one knows exactly what areas of the coast, or 

which states, if any, a hurricane may hit in 2006. 

We must remember a hurricane is not just a coastal event. Storm 

surges, strong winds, heavy rains, and tornadoes from a hurricane 

or weakening tropical system can spread well inland and cause tremendous damage. 

17 

The message from NOAA is very clear: We want every business, 

every family, every individual, and every community on or near the 

coast to have a hurricane preparedness plan in place. 

Thank you for your time today, and I am happy to answer any 

questions that you might have. 

[The prepared statement of Mr. Jones follows:] 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF JOHN E. JONES, JR., DEPUTY DIRECTOR, 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, NOAA, DOC 

Mr. Chairman, and members of the Committee, I am John Jones, Deputy Director 

of the National Weather Service at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the Department of Commerce. Thank you for inviting me here 

today to discuss the outlook for the remainder of the 2006 hurricane season, the 

threat posed to South Carolina by hurricanes and the work of National Weather 

Service (NWS) offices in forecasting inland threats from these storms. 

First, I would like to thank you for your support of NOAA and our hurricane program. Your support enables us to make the best forecasts possible, helping to ensure 

the people of our Nation understand the potential effects from hurricanes, and what 

action they can take to protect their life and property. The FY 2006 Hurricane Supplemental Funding, approved by Congress, is being used as directed, including funding forecast model improvements, storm surge and inland hurricane forecasting improvements. Thank you again for your support. 

On August 8, NOAA revised its prediction for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. 

The official hurricane season started June 1 and goes through November 30, with 

the average peak of hurricane activity occurring with the warmest water temperatures, from now to late October. So far this year there have been 3 tropical storms 

(Alberto, Beryl, Chris). For the rest of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA 

is predicting 9–12 more tropical storms, with 7–9 becoming hurricanes, of which 3– 

4 could become major hurricanes. A major hurricane is a storm Category 3 or higher 

on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, with winds greater than 110 miles per hour. 

Major hurricanes cause about 80 percent of the damage sustained from tropical cyclones. 

Our forecast for the remainder of this season is based primarily on the continuing 

multi-decadal signal in the global tropics—a climate pattern in place since 1995. 

Since the mid-1990s, nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal, 

with only two below normal seasons during the El Nin ̃ o years of 1997 and 2002. 

This multi-decadal signal will likely keep us in an active period for major hurricanes 

for another 10 to 20 years or more. 

Warmer ocean water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean, 

combined with expected weaker easterly trade winds, and a more favorable wind 

pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, are factors that collectively will favor 

storms in greater numbers and greater intensity. Warm water is the energy source 

for storms while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart 

a storm’s building cloud structure. 

NOAA is actively engaged in research to understand how climate variability and 

change may affect hurricane frequency and intensity. For example, climate effects 

from outside the Atlantic basin, such as El Nin ̃ o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can 

impact hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin. This year, however, NOAA scientists predict neutral ENSO conditions, which means neither El Nin ̃ o conditions 

(which tend to suppress hurricane formation), nor La Nin ̃ a conditions (which tend 

to favor hurricane formation), will be a factor in this year’s hurricane season. 

Last year was a record-setting hurricane season, with 28 storms and 15 hurricanes, of which seven were major hurricanes. We know all too vividly the destruction and devastation a single hurricane can cause. That is why it is important not 

to focus only on the total number of storms. The message is clear. We all need to 

be prepared. 

Multi-decadal Climate Patterns 

We observed that steering patterns for major hurricane landfalls can sometimes 

persist over several years. As shown in the three graphics below, during the 1940s, 

many major hurricanes hit Florida. During the 1950s, the focus of land-falling hurricanes shifted to the U.S. East Coast. During the 1960s, the central and western 

Gulf Coast was hit by the hurricanes. 

18 


817JONES1.eps
19 

This pattern might lead one to assume that—given the recent major hurricanes 

like Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2004 and 2005— 

Florida and the Gulf Coast are likely targets again this season. However, in each 

of these decades there were exceptions. For example, in the 1940s, while most 

storms hit Florida, two made landfall in the Gulf, and one made landfall in New 

England. In addition, in the 1930s, major land-falling hurricanes were relatively 

well distributed along the U.S. coastline—hitting the U.S. coast from Texas to New 

England. Consequently, while it is possible to observe these trends and make generalizations based upon these observations, it is important to understand that in 

any given year a hurricane can impact any part of the U.S. coastline from Texas 

to Maine. Coastal communities along the Gulf and East Coasts, including here in 

South Carolina, remain at risk for hurricanes, and the business community and the 

public must be prepared to respond if a storm approaches. South Carolina is no 

stranger to hurricanes or tropical storms. In 2004 alone, two Category 1 hurricanes 

hit the state—Charlie on August 14 and Gaston on August 29—and two other tropical systems crossed the state. 

It takes only one hurricane to hit a community to make for a bad year. Just recall 

Hugo which hit South Carolina in 1989, its center making landfall just north of 

Charleston. The storm surge was large; up to 20 feet just north of Charleston (see 

graphic 4, below). The impacts of Hurricane Hugo reached well inland, with many 

portions of South Carolina and North Carolina devastated by heavy rain and strong 

winds, knocking down trees and disrupting power supplies for over a month in some 

areas. 


817JONES2.eps
20 

Let’s now examine the potential effects from storms making landfall near Beaufort, South Carolina. The first graphic below (graphic 5) depicts the storm surge 

from a Category 1 storm moving to the north-northwest at 35 miles per hour. The 

track is similar to the one Hugo took and almost perpendicular to the coast, except 

it is shifted about 50 miles farther south. The storm surge reaches about eight feet 

along the coast. This is the amount of surge from the storm only. The astronomical 

tide would be added (or subtracted) from this value to obtain the water level. In 

the Beaufort area, the surge is about five feet and the astronomical tide could increase (or decrease) the water level by five feet. 

Notice how much farther inland the flooding penetrates with successively stronger 

hurricanes traveling along the same, hypothetical path (see graphics 6, 7, 8, and 9, 

below). A land-falling Category 5 hurricane could cause a surge of water near 20 


817JONES3.eps 817JONES4.eps
21 

feet high, reaching well inland and devastating everything in its path. Add to this 

the astronomical tides, and water could be 25 feet deep in downtown Beaufort with 

a Category 5 storm. 


817JONES5.eps
22 


817JONES6.eps
23 

No one can say with any reliability, months in advance, when or where hurricanes 

are going to strike. The state of the science is simply not advanced enough at this 

time. The bottom line is that all coastal states from Texas to Maine, Hawaii, and 

other U.S. interests in the Pacific and the Caribbean are vulnerable to the devastation brought by a hurricane. The message from NOAA is very consistent. We want 

every business, every family, every individual, and every community on or near the 

coast to have a hurricane preparedness plan and have it in place. 

The Role of the National Weather Service in Tracking, Forecasting and 

Communicating the Threats of Hurricanes 

The mission of the NWS is to issue weather, water, and climate forecasts and 

warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national 

economy. Nowhere is that more evident than in the hurricane program. Various 

components of the NWS play important roles in the overall hurricane forecasting 

and warning process. The National Hurricane Center (NHC), within the NWS, has 

been the centerpiece of our Nation’s hurricane forecast and warning program for 50 

years. The mission of the NHC is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve 

economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, and forecasts of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing public understanding of these hazards. 

NHC tropical cyclone forecasts are issued at least every six hours, more frequently during landfall threats, and include text messages as well as a suite of 

graphical products depicting our forecasts and the accompanying probabilities and 

‘‘cone of uncertainty,’’ as it has become known. The NHC is responsible for predicting the path and intensity of the system, issuing coastal hurricane watches and 

warnings, and describing broad effects to the areas impacted, including projected 

storm surge levels. 

Local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) also play a critical role in this process. WFOs use their local expertise to refine NHC advisories 

and provide specific, detailed information about the impacts from the hurricane to 

their local forecast area of responsibility. Weather forecast office staff have detailed 

knowledge of the local terrain and effects, and provide this information through direct interactions with local emergency managers via their local forecast products 

and messages. This detailed information is used by local emergency managers when 

making their evacuation and other preparedness decisions. 

Inland Effects of Hurricanes 

The effects of hurricanes can reach far inland and it is the responsibility of the 

local WFO to issue inland hurricane and tropical storm warnings and describe the 

local impacts from the storms. Local WFOs work with NWS River Forecast Centers 

to forecast and warn for floods and flash floods. WFOs also provide forecasts and 

warnings for all other inland effects including strong wind and tornadoes. The offices work closely with local emergency managers to ensure they are aware of the 

potential affects from the storms. 

Local media relay NWS watch and warning information to the public; providing 

a critical way to disseminate potential life saving information from the NWS. 

Wind 

Hurricane-force winds, 74 miles per hour or more, can destroy buildings and mobile homes. Debris, such as signs, roofing material, siding, and small items left outside, become flying missiles in hurricanes. Winds can stay above hurricane strength 

well inland. Hurricane Hugo in 1989 battered Charlotte, North Carolina—about 175 

miles inland—with gusts near 100 miles per hour, downing trees and power lines. 

Tornadoes 

Hurricanes and tropical storms also produce tornadoes. These tornadoes most 

often occur in thunderstorms embedded in rain bands, well away from the center 

of the hurricane. Usually, tornadoes produced by tropical cyclones are relatively 

weak and short-lived, but still pose a threat. 

Inland/Freshwater Floods 

All tropical cyclones can produce widespread torrential rain. This rain can 

produce deadly and destructive floods. Heavy rain can trigger landslides and 

mudslides, especially in mountainous regions. Flooding is the major threat from 

tropical cyclones to people well inland. For example, Tropical Storm Allison, in 2001, 

was the most costly tropical storm in U.S. history, causing more than $5 billion in 

flood damage and causing 24 fatalities in southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. 

Allison then moved northeastward and weakened to a depression as it brought 

heavy rain to South Carolina. Hurricane Floyd, in 1999, brought extremely heavy 

rainfall to many locations in the eastern United States. 

24 

Flash flooding, a rapid rise in water levels, can occur quickly due to intense rainfall. Longer term flooding on rivers and streams can persist for several days after 

the storm. Intense rainfall is not directly related to the winds of tropical cyclones, 

but rather to how fast the storms are moving, and the geography of the area affected. Slower moving storms produce more rainfall. Mountainous terrain enhances 

rainfall from tropical cyclones and can lead to mudslides and debris flows. Inland 

flooding can be a major threat to people hundreds of miles from the coast. 

Between 1970 and 2004, more people lost their lives from freshwater flooding associated with tropical storms and hurricanes than any other weather hazard from 

those storms. However, Hurricane Katrina provides a vivid reminder that potentially the most devastating component of tropical systems is still storm surge. 

NOAA Efforts to Improve Hurricane Predictions 

NOAA is focused on improving hurricane track, intensity, storm surge, and rainfall predictions. Research conducted by the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) improves our understanding of these elements, as well as helping to ensure that hurricane prediction models properly represent physical processes within hurricanes. 

HRD is part of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory within 

NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR). The accuracy of 

NOAA’s hurricane forecasts is closely tied to improvements in computer-based numerical weather prediction models. This year NOAA implemented advances in its 

hurricane forecasting model that are expected to yield improved track and intensity 

guidance for our forecasters. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, also within OAR, developed this hurricane model, which has been transferred to operational 

use at NWS’s National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). 

NOAA’s Central Computer System upgrade in FY 2007, will increase computational speed, memory, and storage capabilities. This allows more sophisticated numerical models to run and make use of available data, including data from NOAA’s 

polar orbiting and geostationary satellites. 

Predicting hurricane intensity remains one of our most difficult forecast challenges. We are all aware of the improvements made in predicting hurricane track 

forecasts, and this has been where NOAA and the research community have placed 

their emphasis. Within the past few years, the emphasis on improving intensity prediction has increased. Leading the way, in FY 2007 NOAA plans to introduce a new 

hurricane modeling system developed by NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center 

called the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF). We expect 

improvements in intensity, precipitation, and wind distribution forecasting from the 

next generation operational modeling system. Congress supported our model improvement effort in the FY 2006 Hurricane Supplemental Funding, and HWRF implementation and development are included in the FY 2007 President’s Budget request. 

Hurricane Katrina is a grim reminder that the greatest potential for economic destruction and large loss of life is from the storm surge near the coast. Storm surge 

is also very difficult to predict because it depends on the hurricane track and wind 

field, but it also is affected by bathymetry, topography, and natural and man-made 

barriers, such as dunes and roadways. A slight difference in track or wind field can 

mean a huge difference in where the highest storm surge impacts the coast. 

NOAA’s Storm Surge Model, known as SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surge 

from Hurricanes), provided excellent guidance during last year’s hurricanes. We realize many other storm surge models exist, and NOAA recently formed an assessment team to re-examine our users’ requirements for real-time storm surge information and products, to direct storm surge modeling within NOAA, and to plan for future enhancement of, or the replacement of, the SLOSH model. 

Our local NWS offices work closely with the research and academic community 

to improve our understanding of tropical systems; using that information to improve 

forecasts and warnings. Recent efforts include improved detection of tornadoes associated with tropical systems and forecasting the location of heaviest rainfall from 

tropical systems. Efforts also continue to improve communicating the severity of the 

impacts and communicating the level of certainty in our predictions. 

Aircraft Reconnaissance Data 

NOAA aircraft, the W–P3 Orions and the Gulf Stream IV, provide essential observations critical to NHC forecasters, and supplement the U.S. Air Force Reserve 

Command’s 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (‘‘Hurricane Hunter’’) flights. A 

specialized instrument flown on both of the W–P3s, the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), was developed by NOAA researchers at the HRD and 

provides essential data on hurricane structure, surface wind and rain rate to hurricane forecasters. The SFMR allows forecasters and researchers to see fluctuations 

25 

in hurricane intensity not observed before. The Military Construction Appropriations 

and Emergency Hurricane Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2005 (P.L. 108–324) 

provided $10.5 million to the Air Force to outfit the complete fleet of Hurricane 

Hunters with this instrument. 

NOAA Encourages Everyone to Prepare 

We work year-round with federal, state, and local emergency managers; we educate them about weather effects from hurricanes, and they educate us about response issues and their challenges. It is a constant learning process and the key is 

working together to ensure the public takes appropriate action. Most preparedness 

activities and outreach takes place outside hurricane season. Last spring, as part 

of our ongoing mission to enhance economic security and national safety, NOAA conducted a Hurricane Awareness Tour along the Gulf Coast. The tour helped raise 

awareness about the potential effects from a hurricane landfall. The NWS forecast 

offices arranged the tour events with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, 

local governments, emergency managers, schools, the public, and the media in a 

team effort to increase hurricane awareness and encourage preparedness in this vulnerable area of the Nation. On May 5, 2005, the Hurricane Awareness Tour stopped 

in Charleston, where 1,000 school-aged children, and many others, toured the plane 

and were informed about hurricane preparedness. 

One way a community could prepare is to become StormReady. StormReady is a 

nationwide community preparedness program to help communities develop plans to 

handle all types of hazardous weather events, from hurricanes to tornadoes. South 

Carolina has 42 StormReady designations, 36 counties and 6 communities. 

During land-falling storms, it is essential for the emergency management community and the weather community to have one message for the public so businesses 

and people can take appropriate action. Nowhere is this more critical than in areas 

most vulnerable to the impact of a hurricane. Our local NWS offices in South Carolina work very closely with local emergency managers to ensure we all speak with 

one voice. During the past year, NWS offices in Greensboro, Columbia, and Charleston, South Carolina, as well as the NWS Office in Wilmington, North Carolina, gave 

numerous presentations, online ‘‘hurricane chats,’’ and training classes to people in 

South Carolina, to discuss weather and the potential impact from hurricanes and 

tropical systems. These outreach efforts raise awareness and hopefully allow people 

to prepare for the storms long before they happen. 

Conclusion 

The truth is, right now, no one knows exactly what areas of the coast, or which 

states or locations within those states, if any, another hurricane will hit in 2006. 

Could it be the Gulf Coast again? Maybe. How about New England or New York 

City? What about South Carolina? They’re all possible, but, right now we just don’t 

know. We also need to remember a hurricane is not just a coastal event. The strong 

winds, heavy rains, and tornadoes from weakening tropical systems can spread well 

inland and cause tremendous damage. 

The chart below shows the tracks of tropical storms and hurricanes since 1851. 

I think most people can look at this graphic and understand that the United States 

is vulnerable to hurricanes. The bottom line is that all coastal states from Texas 

to Maine, Hawaii, and other U.S. interests in the Pacific and the Caribbean are at 

risk. Everyone along the coast, as well as communities susceptible to the inland effects from tropical systems must be prepared to protect their lives and property in 

the event of a hurricane. Thank you, and I am happy to answer any questions that 

you might have. 

26 

Senator DEMINT. Thank you, Mr. Jones. 

I particularly want to thank you and all the crew of the Gulf 

Stream Hurricane Hunter we saw this morning. 

I think it looks luxurious from the outside; but inside, obviously, 

it is a working airplane. It’s encouraging to see the progress we 

have made with, particularly, predicting the tracks. 

You showed us what would happen if Beaufort was hit with the 

category one and five. 

I don’t know if you have available to just look quickly at two, 

three, and four, just to give the folks an idea. 

Mr. JONES. I think we have a couple of pictures of different categories of storms. 

VOICE. We have, two, three, four. 

Senator DEMINT. If you can just go through that. 

Because the likelihood of a two or three seems—I think Mr. 

Fowler said it’s not a matter of if, it’s just a matter of when. 

Mr. JONES. Yes. 

Senator DEMINT. Let me ask a couple of questions while we are 

waiting. 

Colonel, and I think I want to ask Mr. Winn the same thing, how 

much notice do you need to effectively evacuate and carry out your 

plan? 

Colonel LANHAM. Sir, is this with or without the four-lane highway? 

Senator DEMINT. That is like a ten-year notice. We don’t have 

that. But just give it at the current situation; how much advanced 

notice do you need to effectively evacuate the base? 

Colonel LANHAM. It’s hard to say exactly, sir, you know, 48 hours 

is a reasonable timeline for most people. 

But it’s probably too short for us, in the way we would have to 

do it, given the access to these areas. 


817JONES7.eps
27 

So, we really do emphasize self-evacuation early for the majority 

of the military families here; have a plan, have somebody you know 

or somewhere you can go, and get out of here early. 

Because if we have to wait two to three days, even that is going 

to maximize the infrastructure that we have in place to get folks 

evacuated safely in a timely manner. 

Senator DEMINT. You don’t have an arrangement within the 

schools, auditoriums or whatever—you folks just don’t have anyplace to go—if they could go to some emergency shelter for a few 

days. 

Colonel LANHAM. Well, we do. But the problem is, that if we are 

talking anything above a category one that doesn’t hang around in 

the area very long, wherever we have the shelters in Beaufort 

County are not going to provide shelter adequate to the need. 

Senator DEMINT. Right. But inland, you don’t have an agreement 

with anyone 100 miles in or something? 

Colonel LANHAM. For none other than our essential personnel 

that are going to plan and participate in the recovery efforts, we 

don’t, sir. 

Senator DEMINT. Mr. Winn, how much notice do you need to get 

people off Hilton Head Island and out of Bluffton and off of Lady 

Island and—— 

Mr. WINN. If ten years was an offer, sir, I’ll take it. 

Our hurricane evacuation studies, and the current update we 

just did, show category five evacuation time is approximately 25 

hours, from the time we say ‘‘go’’ to get everybody out. 

Category three, we run anywhere from 16 to 18 hours. 

But in the South Carolina hurricane plan, if our increased rates 

are implemented by the state, we start about four days out from 

when we perceive the threat. 

A lot of that is given to us by the Hurricane Center or the 

Charleston Weather Service Office, and the time sequence that we 

use it, usually takes us about four days to do all the increased 

readiness steps we need. So we have to jump through a lot of 

hoops, whether we know the threat or not, but the actual evacuation for the public, range anywhere from 18 to 25 hours. 

Senator DEMINT. Two days out, if we told everyone to evacuate, 

I imagine we would have a pretty serious traffic jam on 278 and 

other arteries getting out of here. 

Mr. WINN. We also say we can guarantee we can get you to the 

county line. I’m not sure I can get you much past that. The evacuation problems we have seen inland into Jasper and Hampton 

County, because we only have two routes that are assigned to the 

Lowcountry of South Carolina. So, we have to move the entire 

evacuation over those two routes. And they are just not adequate 

enough to do that, that is what strings the time out. The actual 

problem is further inland. 

Senator DEMINT. Let’s take just a second to look at category two, 

three and four. Because knowing what to expect is, I think, a very 

important part 

VOICE. These are still images. 

Senator DEMINT. Whatever is easiest. I think the aftermath, how 

much water do we have, given category two. 

Mr. Jones you may want to walk us through this. 

28 

Mr. JONES. John, let’s go to the movies, since they saw the movies for one and five, if you don’t mind. I think that would be easier. 

So here is the category two. Again, the hurricanes are all going 

north-northwest at 35 miles an hour. 

And the bar in the upper right-hand corner shows the depth of 

the water. 

Johnny, please go to the Category 3 storm. 

Now we start getting into some of the yellows. Yellow is 16 feet, 

when we get to a Category 3. 

This next loop is for Category 4. You can see the yellow goes 

much farther inland. 

Senator DEMINT. That yellow is 10, 12 feet? 

Mr. JONES. 16 feet. 

That is a lot of water. If it comes at high tide, you add another 

five feet, and that makes it about 20 feet of water from the storm 

surge with a category four. Category five was up to 25 feet. 

Senator DEMINT. Mr. Winn, even with the new codes of buildingup higher, that just takes you up to eight or ten feet, doesn’t it? 

Mr. WINN. Well, what I use in my presentation, Senator, is when 

you get to a category five, the Town of Yamassee is an island. And 

I own a farm that is just on the other side of Mt. Beaufort, I will 

have oceanfront property for about 20 minutes. 

Senator DEMINT. That was another question: We are not going 

to have sitting water for very long. Water is just going to come up, 

pass by, and pretty much be gone—relatively quickly, right? 

Mr. WINN. In most cases, yes, Beaufort County has done a tremendous job in advancing our draining problem in the county. 

A lot of downed trees, that is going to clog—a lot of water will 

come out in low tide, that is one of the advantages we have. 

Senator DEMINT. Would this contaminate the drinking water, to 

have that much water run across the whole Beaufort County area? 

Mr. WINN. Much of our drinking water comes out of the Savannah River. It depends on the amount of damage to the canals, the 

impact of the water. There will be some contamination of some of 

the shallow wells. 

Senator DEMINT. A lot of the saltwater will push up the river a 

ways under that condition, right? 

Is it possible we will have salty drinking water for awhile? 

Mr. WINN. It could affect some of our wells in the back part of 

the county. 

We looked at the model real close, we have just as much flooding, 

in some case more flooding on the backside of Beaufort than we do 

on the front side. 

And if you look at the great storm of 1893, Beaufort County 

being the—having the second largest number of deaths in the 

United States history from a hurricane in 1893, most of the deaths 

were in the backside of the county; that is true today. 

Senator DEMINT. A lot of that water might sit? 

Mr. WINN. Some of that water will sit in places, yes. 

Senator DEMINT. Let’s talk about communications. Colonel, we 

talked a little bit about your ability to communicate with Mr. 

Winn, and our ability to communicate with the people who live 

here. 

29 

And I think, Mr. Winn, you mentioned the auto-dialing system. 

How long will it take you to get to everyone in the county through 

this auto-dialing system? 

Mr. WINN. Depending on which version we use, and the efforts 

we take, it could be as much as six hours—six to seven hours, depending upon which system we activate. 

What we try to do, Senator, is to phase it in as much as we can 

and only hit certain areas first. 

We have found in our past history of evacuation, if we surge it 

too much at one time, it puts more traffic on the highway than we 

can handle. 

So, we try to phase it in, in our evacuation, through the coastline, and moving back in some of our announcements. 

We have even stopped sending out some of our truck warning sirens. We are putting too much of a surge on the highways. 

Senator DEMINT. Would it be helpful if you could send warnings 

to cell phones, Blackberries, and mobile devices? 

Mr. WINN. Yes, sir. The system which we propose would be of a 

great advantage to our local emergency management folks, giving 

us the ability to set it off with a message that we need, and be able 

to target specific areas. 

Even the emergency alert number systems where we can dial the 

residents, it only hits land-lines and goes through the Internet, we 

can do that. 

But the actual cell phone technology of contacting them, that has 

not been achieved yet, sir. 

Senator DEMINT. My hope is that we can design this system in 

a way even if someone was on Hilton Head from New York, with 

their cell phone, that our warning system could actually communicate with anybody who’s on the system here; that has got to be 

part of the problem. People are here and might not even answer 

the phone if they are renting a place, getting visitors off or out of 

the county has got to be a pretty big challenge. 

Do we have a plan for, perhaps lower-income people who live in 

the area—might not have telephones and might not have transportation to move out. Couldn’t that be a big problem? 

Mr. WINN. As of today, sir, we have the capability and maintain 

what we call a ‘‘lift capacity’’ of moving 3,700 people in one trip to 

our hurricane shelters in Hampton. 

We are in the process now of upgrading that capacity, by adding 

20 more buses as reserve. 

And I would just request 10 extra buses with 20 drivers from the 

state, which would give us a ‘‘lift capacity’’ of around 4,000, 4,500. 

If we have enough time to run two trips, that gets my capacity 

to about 9,000, sir. 

I think that would adequately move the people out of Beaufort 

County. 

As for the notification, I will tell you that the people who want 

to leave, Senator, can leave. And I’m absolutely confident that anyone who wants to leave, no matter what their economic situation, 

whether they have their own transportation, we can get them out 

of Beaufort County. 

The problem is, the people who perceive there is no threat or little threat, and are going to stay in the county, we estimate that 

30 

could be anywhere from 5,000 to 8,000 people, and that’s going to 

be a significant search and rescue operation after the storm. 

Senator DEMINT. So it’s not a matter of them not knowing, or us 

not warning them and giving them means to leave, it’s just that 

it may be their own decision not to leave. 

Mr. WINN. They make their own decision. And then that opens 

up the whole Pandora’s box, how do we deal with that in that process. 

Senator DEMINT. Are we doing things through local schools to 

help students understand dangers and the preparation, and that 

process; is that something we are doing? 

Mr. WINN. As for a direct program, we have—no, sir; we have no 

program that goes directly into the schools. 

We have used educational programs outside of the schools to the 

public. We offer programs like Mr. Fowler going into the schools 

and talking when he’s invited. But as for a full education program; 

no, sir, there is not one. 

Senator DEMINT. What we are looking for are ideas of things 

that we can do at the Federal level, just like the warning system, 

something we can do to support what you’re doing locally. And as 

you think about the role of the Federal Government, whether it’s 

supporting a warning system like that, whether what we do with 

NOAA, what FEMA might do, I would like to maybe ask all four 

of you panelists: What do we need to be doing on our committee 

and in the Congress, and at the agency level—the Federal Government, to get prepared and to assist the local communities, on the 

whole, warning, predicting, evacuating, recovery process? 

Where are we, Colonel? I’ll start with you. What comes to mind? 

Colonel LANHAM. It’s hard for me to really address the Federal 

role in this because, really, our focus here has been on local coordination of issues. 

And the first thing that jumps into my mind, sir, is the support 

at the Federal level of information sharing. Both the lessons 

learned and, if we move our focus from storms, for just a minute, 

to broaden that to any kind of mass-casualty scenario, the planning 

and predicting of those, as well, terrorist tracking, things like that, 

but sharing information at the national level is still an area that 

we—I think we need to continue some improvement on. 

The more that we can do that, the more that we can encourage 

the quick-share flow of information. Lessons learned, planning 

ideas, alternatives and resources available, I think the better off it 

will be for the local planners to tap into what they need and tailor 

what is available at the Federal level to their specific circumstances and localities across the country. 

Senator DEMINT. We talked this morning about communication. 

You’re communicating with Mr. Winn. Are our systems interoperable? Are these going to work together, just between the base and 

what we have here on the civilian side? 

Colonel LANHAM. Only because the county provides us a lot of 

that support. The 800 megahertz radios that we use are provided 

and maintained by contract vehicles that the county owns. And 

that works very well for us here. 

31 

Interoperability is something we continue to work on here, but 

it’s not a given. And it has potential, when everybody has a good 

idea, to go in one direction. 

Unless everybody goes with them, we are not going to stay interoperable over time. 

Senator DEMINT. Mr. Fowler, I know when we have a hurricane 

coming in, do you get enough information updated enough? 

I know the weather service is probably in constant communication. But as far as evacuation routes, problems with traffic choke 

points somewhere; do you get enough? 

Mr. FOWLER. We do. I think Floyd, obviously, for many folks including media was a major lesson for us to learn, as well. 

Obviously, some changes have been made in South Carolina from 

the Governor’s office down to the local level, about how to get people out. And when they are going to get them out, what roads will 

be reversed. So our role is to just get that information out to the 

public. 

I like the idea of the text-ahead, we as a TV station do that personally, contracting with a service. And after the first tropical 

storm, Alberto, of this year, we had about 400 people sign up that 

first day. 

So, we constantly send out text alerts. And it has been very advantageous for us, and people have kind of responded to that as 

well. 

If you go do that on the government level, that would be excellent. Not just hurricanes, but Amber alerts, other things as well. 

We try to get the information out as quickly as we can. 

We are lucky that we have a great weather service office, a forecast office in Charleston, that they have—they will contact us in 

advance of a potential threat and say: Here is what our inside 

thinking is. 

You know, we, as the media, it’s our responsibility to kind of 

syphon that information down to the public, so we don’t want to 

show everything that we have got. Because, you know, people really are hanging on your every word. And they can see it in your eyes 

if you’re scared or not. 

So you have to try to keep a low profile and calm, you know, persona on the air. 

But they usually call us beforehand: Here is what we are thinking, or watch is going to go up the next update, or warning the 

next update. 

And then that helps us ramp up our presentation, exactly what 

we need to hit on, what is most important and what message we 

need to send out to our viewers. 

Senator DEMINT. Do you get information from the highway department reminding people of evacuation routes? 

Mr. FOWLER. We do. They have done a great job. Again, I think 

Floyd was really the catalyst for this. I have been in Charleston 

since 1987, and went through the Floyd debacle sitting in a TV station, not realizing what was going on on the highways. 

Now, with the traffic cameras that are instituted by the Department of Transportation, the Highway Patrol, obviously, there is a 

good link there to the media. We have good liaisons in that respect. 

So we get the information that we need to get out to the public. 

32 

Senator DEMINT. Do you know if the local—until we get the 

WARN Act implemented, the folks in their cars leaving, their only 

information that is probably on radio; do you know if the local 

radio stations have the same information you do available from, 

looking at cameras and things like that? 

Mr. FOWLER. I’ll tell you, we learned a hard lesson during Hurricane Hugo. The almighty television station is not almighty when 

you have a hurricane coming through. So we were still broadcasting a signal, but nobody was picking it up. 

So, what has happened in the radio business, and I’m sure you 

are familiar with this, is the fact that you have big groups of 

bought clusters of radio stations in different markets. 

We have Clear Channel Radio. They own six powerful radio stations. So we have formulated an agreement with that group that 

if, and when a threat occurs, that we will broadcast over their airwaves as well. 

So, basically, what they may do is, they may simulcast our signal, as we are what we call wall-to-wall coverage; or we, as a meteorologist will update them for people in the car. 

And we had an instance this spring of many tornadoes in our 

area, and there was one person who called me after hearing tornado warning on the radio station that we were broadcasting on, 

telling me they saw the tornado on the Donnough Bridge over by 

Westvaco. 

That person, just by listening to the radio, was able to understand the threat was there, and they are driving over the bridge, 

not knowing on the other side of that bridge was a tornado—possible tornado had touched down in that area. 

So, radio stations are a site link to what we do. 

Senator DEMINT. Are the emergency management folks in 

Charleston involved with your working with radio stations and 

communicating? Is that something that goes on here, Mr. Winn? 

Mr. FOWLER. Yes. I think, absolutely. We go—we frequent so 

many seminars and conferences together, we get to really interact 

with each other. 

And then when it does hit the fan then, you know, we have that 

good working relationship. 

With that, they know to call us, and we rely on them, and they 

rely on us to get the word out. 

We have had good relationships over the years with the folks in 

charge in Charleston, specifically, and some of the other counties 

that we serve. 

Senator DEMINT. That is encouraging, Mr. Winn. 

What do we need to do that we are not doing? 

I know you mentioned the roads. I have taken note of that. We 

are working on road money. 

Mr. WINN. First, like the comments say, some of the things meteorologist’s office in Charleston, the Weather Service, they just held 

a meeting within the last three months of the Local Emergency 

Management Directors and media folks, and we sat down with the 

Weather Service Office in Charleston, and we talked through a lot 

of items: What’s working? What’s not working? What do we need 

to do differently? 

33 

And I think that type of leadership, specifically, with the Weather Service Office out of Charleston is a step in the right direction. 

The highway infrastructure is important. I tell you, one of the 

main complaints I get from people is fear of being stuck on the 

highway. 

And the three-lane completion of 278, out of the county, is critical for us. 

So, the highway infrastructure and asking the Federal Highway 

Administration to put more consideration in their funding for new 

highways based on hurricane issues, which they do not. 

What has gone on in Beaufort with our three military bases, Senator, I found is unique. I have received more calls from around the 

country: How did you all do that? What did you do in Beaufort to 

get the military to participate with you? 

And what you are seeing here is something you will not find in 

a lot of places. I give a tremendous amount of credit to Headquarters Marines for trying something new in Beaufort. I think we 

have proved, Colonel, that it works. I can’t give enough credit to 

LT COL Nick Fabrise from Parris Island, who sat down with us 

three years ago and said: This is something you need to do; and 

helped us find ways to do it. 

But it’s something that needs to be expanded around the country, 

linking more of the counties to their military facility, as we have 

done. 

It has been an adventure on both sides, but we have shown you, 

sir, that it works. And this is something we would like to see expanded. 

Funding of warning systems, particularly systems that you mentioned, we encourage you to make sure there is input, because 

what works in South Carolina may not work exactly in North Carolina. 

We have been implementing phase two for wireless 911 in South 

Carolina. We are one of the first counties to do that, and that has 

been quite a chore with the cellular companies. 

And we find there is a wide difference between the technical 

abilities of those companies. 

So, I caution you, as you put that together, to make sure you understand those. 

Number two, I ask that you have local input, as you all put that 

system together, and bring some of the county directors in for that 

local experience. 

As for getting information, the FEMA Hurricane Liaison Team, 

the National Hurricane Center does a good job in providing some 

of those coordination calls with the states, and in some cases for 

the county, that is a tremendous step forward. 

Hurricane evacuation studies need to be updated, like Beaufort 

County just received. It would help us pinpoint what’s safe and 

what’s not. 

The other growing problem that we are seeing, Senator, is Red 

Cross shelters. And the problem is just not enough of them. I lose 

all my shelters after category one. So my nearest hurricane shelters are 50 miles inland. 

After this year, we are going to exceed our capacity. So, now we 

are going to have to go further in. And this is producing quite a 

34 

challenge for us in getting our folks that far away in the storm, 

and it may deter some of our people from wanting to leave. 

As for your WARN program, yes, sir. I recommend it. Yes, sir. 

I think it’s a step in the right direction. I think it’s something that 

would benefit us, not only in hurricanes, but something simple that 

can be so terrifying as an Amber alert. 

My agency is responding quickly for that, they are responsible for 

putting that out. To be able to get an Amber alert out on a system 

like that, would be tremendous. I have only activated an Amber 

alert one time in Beaufort County. 

To give you a degree of its effectiveness, within 10 minutes of 

putting out the Amber alert, we found the little girl, because of 

that system. 

So, when you develop a WARN System, I urge you to please consider Amber alert as part of that; it would make a tremendous difference in a lot of peoples’ lives, sir. Thank you. 

Senator DEMINT. Well, just so you know, as part of the WARN 

Act, that there is a section that basically requires state and local 

collaboration to put these systems together. And the cellular companies have to disclose the degree to which they have the capability to implement warnings, maps and those. 

Our hope is that the cellular companies will have to compete 

with that system. And people are likely to get the cell phones or 

Blackberry that is going to offer them the greatest capability as far 

as warning. So we will be counting on a lot of input from you. 

Mr. WINN. Thank you, sir. 

Senator DEMINT. Mr. Jones, what do these folks need to do that 

they are not doing to use your information to prevent and predict? 

Mr. JONES. There are a couple of things that you have already 

mentioned. At the very beginning, you talked about why you felt 

it was important for the community to be here. 

I think you coming in here yourself has brought heightened 

awareness to the potential impacts and danger from hurricanes. 

And you coming here yourself, you brought the press. 

So, colleagues of Mr. Fowler will now have stories tonight that, 

hopefully, people here—either living here or visiting—will even 

think more about: Well, do I really have a plan in place, what do 

I do if the worst comes? 

We cannot say that enough. I think that that is number one. 

You talked about one of the biggest challenges that I have seen 

in my almost 35-years; career, human behavior: the social science. 

If we give people the perfect forecast, we tell them it’s going be 

here, and these are the consequences that are going occur, there 

are always going to be problems, because everyone is not going to 

respond the same way. 

I don’t know of anyone who really has an answer for that. But 

I know we need to do more research. I don’t know if it’s the way 

we communicate the information or what it might be. I think the 

information is communicated clearly, but the whole human behavioral reaction to storms, and wanting to experience it, rather than 

getting out of the way is the basic issue. If they could understand 

the type of complexities it puts on the First Responders, they might 

make a different decision. 

35 

First, the first responders must get to the people who are really 

in danger, those who couldn’t go and get out of the way. Then these 

first responders keep putting themselves at risk to recuse those 

who didn’t—who wouldn’t get out of the way because they chose to 

ride it out. 

Mr. Fowler talked a couple of times about Hurricane Floyd. 

When Hurricane Floyd came up the East Coast and the Governors 

of Florida, and South Carolina, and Georgia made their decisions 

to evacuate, and we had the problems with too much traffic on the 

road, I had a serious question about whether or not you would ever 

see mass evacuations like that again. 

But people did evacuate from Katrina. People did evacuate from 

Rita. And although Rita didn’t go to Houston proper—a lot of people in the Houston area may have thought, I really do need to evacuate, so they did, causing massive traffic jams. 

So, we still have people’s attention, and we need to keep that 

awareness as high as possible. 

And Max Mayfield, as you have heard, Senator, says he’s more 

busy in the off season then during the hurricane season. Always 

going out, trying to talk to people about needing to get prepared, 

needing to have a plan. 

So, the more that we can do and bring more attention to the hurricane and storm surge issue, the more people will learn about 

their own risk. I think we provide enough information for people 

to react to the information and take appropriate action. 

Mr. Winn talked about the hurricane liaison team. I know it has 

been a big boom for the emergency managers. They help us get the 

word out. 

We just need to get more information to the public. Always the 

idea of danger from hurricanes needs to be at the top of their 

minds: They need to have a plan in place and be ready to react 

when it’s time to take action. 

Senator DEMINT. We want to make sure that Mr. Winn, this gets 

back to your point, and highway infrastructure, that we don’t have 

people who are trying to decide whether they want to ride out the 

storm or spend 30 hours in their car in traffic backed up. 

That doesn’t need to be a consideration. Folks who want to get 

out, we need to make sure we can do it effectively. 

And we want to make sure no one doesn’t evacuate, because they 

didn’t know. And I think the system we have set up, unless someone is just hiding out somewhere, they should be able to find a way 

out. But we want to make sure we are doing everything we can. 

But this has been a very informative hearing. And I think, Mr, 

Jones part of it, as you said, is just to draw attention to the public, 

of the need to be prepared, and the fact that we are preparing. 

But the big missing link is always how people will respond when 

we warn them. 

So, I think as much as we can continue to do that through the 

media, through our emergency response system, perhaps even 

through our schools, people need to know that 20 feet of water— 

it doesn’t matter what kind of facility you’re in—it’s hard to live 

through that. 

And I think they sure found that out in the Gulf last year. 

36 

Is there anything that needs to be said that hasn’t been said? 

Anyone like to make a comment before we adjourn the hearing? 

Again, Colonel, I thank you for your hospitality. The Marines are 

first class, as usual. And thank you for your briefing this morning. 

Mr. Jones, thank you for bringing the plane down. 

And, obviously, Mr. Winn, we know you are doing a lot of planning, and it all gets to the public through Mr. Fowler and his colleagues. So we have the beginnings of a good system. I hope we can 

do our part in Washington to make sure we give you the resources 

you need. 

So, if there is nothing else that needs to be said, this hearing is 

adjourned. 

[Whereupon, at 11:15 a.m., the hearing was adjourned.] 

Æ