From: Rosenstock, Steven [mailto:SRosenstock@eei.org]

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 1:54 PM

To: Cymbalsky, John; Meyers, Aaron; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; John

Caskey

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB);

mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATIm etals.com; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net;

tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; Jame s.Lass@cleco.com;

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com;

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com; Trujillo, Anto nio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L;

tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton .com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, Emily

(CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; DYoung@energy-solution.com;

rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific.com;

carlos.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com; gr eg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrush@gmail.com;

Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov;

gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov; Sco ttB@LVMetals.com; dave.millure@metglas.com;

kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; Brian Co ffey; Caitlin Johnson; Matthew Nardotti; Michael

Rivest; Zhimei Luo; Jim Creevy; mwaltner@nrdc. org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop;

Teckman@nwcouncil.org; vijay.tendu lkar@onyxpower.com; gbf1@pge.com;

chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; ahofmann@pub licpower.org; pkumar@publicpower.org;

adelaski@standardsASAP.org; jmauer@stand ardsasap.org; wes.pa tterson@us.abb.com;

chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com; thomas.pat zner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections



### As a point of reference, the spreadsheet that Mr. Cymbalsky sent out (thank you, John)

showed estimated sales of 24,900 EV’s and PH EV’s in 2011. Based on the following

articles:

http://www.reuters.com/ article/2011/11/02/us-tes la-idUSTRE7A18RJ20111102

http://detnews.com/article/20111102/AUTO 01/111020344/Chevy-Volt-sees-best-salesyet--Nissan-Leaf-still-ahead

As of October 31, 2011, there have been 13 ,051 Leafs and Volts sold or leased in the

US so far in 2011. I could not find s pecific numbers for t he Tesla Roadster or

conversions of gasoline vehicles to PHEV’s in 2011, so I will make a semi-educated

guess that other vehicle sa les would raise the number to about 13,500 EV’s and

PHEV’s sold in 2011 as of 10/31/2011.

Will the number rise to 24,900 by the end of this year? I will leave that to the

forecasters..... :-)

Steve Rosenstock

Manager, Energy Solutions

Edison Electric Institute

srosenstock@eei.org

202-508-5465From: Cymbalsky, John [ mailto:John.Cymba lsky@EE.Doe.Gov ]

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 12:20 PM

To: 'Meyers, Aaron'; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hi rsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; John Caskey

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com ; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com ; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB);

mhyland@appanet.org ; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com ; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net ;

tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com ; dbrender@cda.copper.org ; James.Lass@cleco.com ;

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com ; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com ;

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com ; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L;

tballo@earthjustice.org ; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com ; eduardorobles@eaton.com ; Marchetti, Emily

(CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; Rosenstock, Steven; DYoung@energy-solution.com ;

rick.anderson@faypwc.com ; bsmith@federalpacific.com ; rgreeson@federalpacific.com ;

carlos.gaytan@ge.com ; artrosenfeld@gmail.com ; greg.coulter405@gmail.com ; ned.efbrush@gmail.com ;

Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com ; Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov ;

gjrosenquist@lbl.gov ; kcoughlin@lbl.gov ; ScottB@LVMetals.com ; dave.millure@metglas.com ;

kwinder@mleainc.com ; jrossetti@mlgw.org ; brian.coffey@navigant.com ; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com ;

matthew.nardotti@navigant.com ; mrivest@navigant.com ; zhimei.luo@navigant.com ; Jim Creevy;

mwaltner@nrdc.org ; rroy@nrdc.org ; robert.saint@nreca.coop ; Teckman@nwcouncil.org ;

vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com ; gbf1@pge.com ; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com ;

ahofmann@publicpower.org ; pkumar@publicpower.org ; adelaski@standardsASAP.org ;

jmauer@standardsasap.org ; wes.patterson@us.abb.com ; chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com ;

thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com ; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections

Aaron et al:

Attached is the official USG projections for LDV sales from EIA, the independent statistical agency of the

USG from which our electricity projections are based.

John

From: Meyers, Aaron [ mailto:Aaron.Meyers@CooperIndustries.com ]

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 12:09 PM

To: Steve Nadel; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; John Caskey

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com ; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com ; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB);

mhyland@appanet.org ; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com ; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net ;

tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com ; dbrender@cda.copper.org ; James.Lass@cleco.com ;

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com ; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com ;

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com ; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L;

tballo@earthjustice.org ; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com ; eduardorobles@eaton.com ; Marchetti, Emily

(CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; Cymbalsky, John; srosenstock@eei.org ;

DYoung@energy-solution.com ; rick.anderson@faypwc.com ; bsmith@federalpacific.com ;

rgreeson@federalpacific.com ; carlos.gaytan@ge.com ; artrosenfeld@gmail.com ;

greg.coulter405@gmail.com ; ned.efbrush@gmail.com ; Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com ; Cohen,

Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov ; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov ; kcoughlin@lbl.gov ;

ScottB@LVMetals.com ; dave.millure@metglas.com ; kwinder@mleainc.com ; jrossetti@mlgw.org ;

brian.coffey@navigant.com ; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com ; matthew.nardotti@navigant.com ;

mrivest@navigant.com ; zhimei.luo@navigant.com ; Jim Creevy; mwaltner@nrdc.org ; rroy@nrdc.org ;robert.saint@nreca.coop ; Teckman@nwcouncil.org ; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com ; gbf1@pge.com ;

chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com ; ahofmann@publicpower.org ; pkumar@publicpower.org ;

adelaski@standardsASAP.org ; jmauer@standardsasap.org ; wes.patterson@us.abb.com ;

chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com ; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com ; charlied@uus.org

Subject: Electric Vehicle Projections

Dear Distribution Transformer Efficiency Subcommittee, et al,

The following link is to an article published by the NEMA Intelligence Portal and provides some insight

into the projected impact of electric vehicles:

http://portal.nema.org/Pages/d ocument.aspx?docId=3156&LoadSour ce=LexisNexis&utm_medium=ema

il&utm_campaign=digest_2011

‐ 11

‐ 17&utm_source=aaron.meyers@cooperindustries.com

Most interestingly, by 2025, one in seven new cars is projected to be a zero

‐ emission or plug

‐ in hybrid

vehicle, and 1.4 million are projected to be on the road in California alone by 2025. I don’t see how we

can ignore the impact of this significant change. Meeting th e charging needs will dramatically change

the loading assumptions in the current analysis. As someone pointed out at the October meeting, the

reference loading level (50%) is part of the testing standard and is not on the table for negotiating

purposes, so this is just another non

‐ trivial factor that must be co nsidered outside of the existing

analysis results.

Keep in mind that for two transformers having the same efficiency at 50% load, the amorphous one will

be more efficient at low loading levels whereas the grain

‐ oriented one will be more efficient at higher

loading levels. Looking at Cooper’s data, the ra tio of no

‐ load to load losses at 100% load on a typical

DOE compliant grain

‐ oriented transformer today is 6:1, and on a Cooper amorphous unit it’s about

10:1. To make an analogy, if no

‐ load losses were a slice of pie, the load losses would be the re st of the

entire pie! Load losses are a huge lever and cannot be tossed aside as if merely a nuisance! Most of the

discussion thus far has been squarely focused on no

‐ load losses. We need to make sure we aren’t

spending four dollars to save fifty cents.

Best Re gards,

Aaron