# Michigan Department of Environmental Quality



# Recommended Attainment/Nonattainment Designations and Boundaries in Michigan

for the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard

March 12, 2009

### Recommended Attainment/Nonattainme nt Designations and Boundaries In Michigan for the 0.075 ppm Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard

In March 2008, the U.S. Environmental Prot ection Agency (EPA) revised the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone from 0.08 parts per million (ppm) to 0.075 ppm. The federal Clean Air Act requires the EPA to seek recommendations from the states’ governors for initial designations of the attainment status for all areas of the states when a new or revised standard is promulgated. The states are also asked to provide recommendations for the appropriate boundaries of all nonattainment areas. The EPA will

either affirm the states’ recommendations or make modifications as determined to be necessary. Final promulgation of designations is to occur by March 12, 2010, in accordance

with the federal Clean Air Act.

Recommendation

The designation recommendations of the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ) for the State of Michigan are based on the design value of ambient monitored data for the period 2006-2008 (Table 1). The MDEQ recommends that 16 Michigan counties be designated nonattainment and all others be designated attainment. The 16 counties are Wayne, Washtenaw, St. Clair, Oakland, Monroe, Macomb, Livingston, Lapeer, Livingston, Benzie, Manistee, Muskegon, Ottawa, Kent, Allegan, and Berrien. The recommendations on appropriate boundaries (Figure 1) are based, for the most part, on nonattainment boundaries for the 0.08 ppm ozone standard as previously established in 2004 (Figure 5). At this time, only one ozone monitor in the state, in Holland, is recording ozone levels above the 0.08 ppm NAAQS.

The MDEQ recommends that the EPA designate the seven-county Southeast Michigan area as a nonattainment area, and Lenawee County as an attainment area (Figure 2). This designation recommendation deviates from the boundaries established in 2004 that included Lenawee County in Southeast Michigan. Analysis supporting this recommendation follows. In all other areas with design values over the 0.075 ppm standard the MDEQ recommends retaining the boundaries that were established in 2004. The MDEQ recommends that Genesee and Lapeer Counties be designated separately as the Flint nonattainment area. The recommendation of separate nonattainment areas for the West Michigan areas of Allegan County, Muskegon County, and the Grand Rapids area of Kent and Ottawa Counties is especially important in light of the env ironmental and regulatory burden thrust upon the ozone transport receptor areas in counties that border Lake Michigan. Several metropolitan

areas and non-urban counties that were established as nonattainment areas in 2004 under the 0.08 ppm ozone standard now have design values that attain the revised ozone NAAQS, including Lansing, Kalamazoo, and Cass, Huron, and Mason Counties. One county, Manistee, was designated attainment in 2004 but now is being recommended for a nonattainment designation.

### Michigan’s Recommended Designations for the 0.075 ppm Ozone NAAQS March 12, 2009

Page 2 Table 1

Recommended Attainment/Nonattainment Designations and Boundaries in Michigan for the

Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard

2006-2008 Design Value Designation Area Designation Parts per million (ppm)

Southeast Michigan .082 Wayne County Nonattainment Oakland County Nonattainment Macomb County Nonattainment St. Clair County Nonattainment Livingston County Nonattainment Washtenaw County Nonattainment Monroe County Nonattainment

Flint Metropolitan Area .076 Genesee County Nonattainment Lapeer County Nonattainment

Lenawee .075 Lenawee County Attainment

Berrien .078 Berrien County Nonattainment

Muskegon .082 Muskegon County Nonattainment

Allegan .086 Allegan County Nonattainment

Grand Rapids .079 Kent County Nonattainment Ottawa County Nonattainment

Benzie .076 Benzie County Nonattainment

Manistee .077 Manistee County Nonattainment

Cass .075 Cass County Attainment

Mason .075 Mason County Attainment

All other counties Attainment

### Michigan’s Recommended Designations for the 0.075 ppm Ozone NAAQS March 12, 2009

Page 3 

### Note: Michigan Map with Count y Names on Page 12 (Figure 6). Figure 1 Recommended Ozone Designations (2006/2007/2008)

Nonattainment - Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, St. Clair, Livingston, Washtenaw, Monroe, Genesee, Lapeer, Berrien, Allegan, Ottawa, Kent, Muskegon, Manistee,

Benzie

Attainment -

All other counties monitoring site ≤ 0.075 ppm monitoring site >0.075 ppm

### Michigan’s Recommended Designations for the 0.075 ppm Ozone NAAQS March 12, 2009

Page 4 Background

The ozone designations are to be based on design values (the average of the fourth highest values from each three consecutive years of data at each monitor) calculated from observations during the most recent three-year period of record. The ozone design value for an entire region is derived by the measurements of whichever monitor in the region has the highest ozone values. State recommendations are based on the period 2006-2008, whereas the EPA will make designations based on a different data set, 2007-2009.

Design values in violation of the 0.075 ppm ozone NAAQS have been recorded in the counties of Wayne, Macomb, Oakland, St. Clair, Genesee, Kent, Ottawa, Allegan, Muskegon, Berrien, Manistee, and Benzie.

The non-binding EPA guidance on boundary determination suggests using the Combined Statistical Area (CSA) or Core Based Statisti cal Area (CBSA), as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Census Bureau, as the starting point or the presumptive boundary in the evaluation of appropriate nonattainment areas. A CBSA consists of a county or counties containing at least one urban core plus adjacent counties that have a high degree of social and economic integration with the urban core as measured by commuting ties. A CSA includes two or more adjacent CBSAs. States are asked to provide an analysis of local factors, such as location relative to the urban core, amount of emissions, population, and prevailing meteorology, in those recommendatio ns that deviate from the CSA or CBSA presumptive boundaries. The federal Clean Air Act requires that nonattainment area designations for the 0.075 ppm ozone standard incorporate not only the areas of measured violations, but also the contributing nearby emission source areas. Recommendations that vary from the presumption should be supported with an analysis considering the following

nine factors:

• 

### Air quality data.

• 

### Emissions data (location of sources and contribution to ozone concentrations).

• 

### Population density and degree of urbanization (including commercial development).

• 

### Traffic and commuting patterns.

• 

### Growth rates and patterns.

• 

### Meteorology (weather/transport patterns).

• 

### Geography-topography (mountain ranges or other air basin boundaries).

• 

### Jurisdictional boundaries (e.g., counties, air districts, existing nonattainment areas, Reservations, metropolitan planning organizations, etc.).

• 

### Level of control of emission sources.

Analysis of Southeast Michigan and Lenawee County follows, as separating the two areas is the only deviation from 2004 boundaries that is being recommended for those areas with design values above 0.075 ppm.

Southeast Michigan and Lenawee County

A nonattainment designation for Southeast Michigan area is warranted. The MDEQ recommends that the nonattainment area boundaries for the for the 0.075 ppm ozone standard include the seven counties of Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, St. Clair, Livingston,

### Michigan’s Recommended Designations for the 0.075 ppm Ozone NAAQS March 12, 2009

Page 5 Washtenaw, and Monroe that comprised the 1-hour ozone attainment area and the current PM2.5 nonattainment area. These counties also coincide with the jurisdictional boundaries of the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG) Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) that has responsibilities for air quality and transportation planning (Figure 3).

When nonattainment designations were made for the 0.08 ppm standard in 2004, the monitor in Lenawee County was not meeting the standard and, at that time, the county was part of the Southeast Michigan Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (CMSA). Hence, it was designated nonattainment and included in the Southeast Michigan nonattainment boundary. However, neither of these conditions is true today. The 2006-2008 data show the monitor in Lenawee is meeting the revised ozone standard with a design value of 0.075 ppm (Table 2). In addition, the latest U.S. Census boundaries, adopted in June 2003, removed Lenawee County from the Southeast Michigan CSA, and instead designated it as the Adrian Micropolitan Statistical Area (Figure 3).

Lenawee County, located upwind of the Detroit area, is predominantly rural in character with few emissions of ozone precursors. More than half of the population resides in rural areas (Table 7). Forest and farmland account for 81% of the land use according to the Natural Resource Conservation Service. The 2000 population density of Lenawee County is low at 131.8 persons per square mile (Table 6). The most populace area in the county is the city of Adrian with 21,574 people according to the 2000 U.S. Census, with an estimated 2007 population loss of 4.2 percent.

There are only two major stationary sources of criteria pollutant emissions (both volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions sources) in Lenawee County. Local emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and VOC generated in Lenawee County comprise only 1.4% and 3.1% of the total emissions, respectively, when included in the Southeast Michigan area (Tables 3 and 4).

According to the county-to-county worker flow data from the 2000 U.S. Census, 21.9% of Lenawee County’s workers commute to the seven-county SEMCOG region, which is only 0.5% of the work force in the seven-county SEMCOG region (Table 10). Little growth is expected in future years, both in terms of population and employment. From 2000-2007, the rate of population growth was 0.3 % per year (Table 5). The most recent demographic forecast for Lenawee County predicted population would increase 6.9% from 2000 to 2020, a rate of growth of 0.33% per year (Table 11) . Employment was expected to increase only 7.2% from 2005 to 2025, a rate of 0.36% per year (Table 12). It should be noted that these forecasts were made over five years ago and thus do not include the impact of the recent economic downturn in Michigan. It is highly likely that the new forecasts would estimate an even smaller rate of growth over the next 20 years.

### Michigan’s Recommended Designations for the 0.075 ppm Ozone NAAQS March 12, 2009

Page 6 Figure 2 Recommended Ozone Designations for Southeast Michigan, Lenawee County and Genesee/Lapeer Counties

Figure 3

Combined Statistical Area as revised June 2003

Wa y ne

Monroe Washtenaw Oakland

Livin g sto Macom St. Clair Genesee La p eer SEMCOG Region East Seven Mile Flint

Warren Otisville

New Haven

Oak Park

Ypsilanti

Tecumseh Port Huron

Allen Park St.
Clai r Lapeer

Genesee

Oakland Macom

b

Livin g ston

Washtenaw Wa y ne

Lenawee Monroe Monitor ≤ 0.075 ppm

Monitor > 0.075 ppm

Attainment

SE MI

Nonattainment

Flint

Nonattainment

Note: Based on monitorin g data for 2006, 2007 and 2008.

### Michigan’s Recommended Designations for the 0.075 ppm Ozone NAAQS March 12, 2009

Page 7 Table 2 2006-2008 8-Hour Ozone Monitoring Data for Southeast Michigan and Lenawee

Monitoring Site Purpose 2006 4 th
High (ppm) 2007 4 th
High (ppm) 2008 4 th
High (ppm) Design Value (ppm)

Allen Park Pop exp. 0.068 0.079 0.067 0.071

Detroit E. 7 Mile Max. conc. 0.078 0.092 0.076 0.082

New Haven Max. conc. 0.078 0.093 0.073 0.081

Oak Park Pop. exp. 0.072 0.086 0.074 0.077

Port Huron Pop. exp. 0.078 0.089 0.067 0.078

Warren Max. conc. 0.078 0.091 0.072 0.080

Ypsilanti Pop. exp. 0.076 0.077 0.069 0.074

Tecumseh (Lenawee) Back grd. 0.074 0.081 0.072 0.075 Note: The monitoring sites in bold type are violating the 0.075 ppm standard.

Table 3 NOx Emissions in Southeast Michigan and Lenawee (Tons/Yr)

County Point Area Non-road On-road Total % of Total
Livingston 660.10 647.95 1, 372.07 5,417.90 8,098.02 3.1%

Macomb 855.33 2,498.84 5,643. 24 14,121.20 23,118.61 9.0%

Monroe 42,258.23 606.83 2,362. 92 5,454.40 50,682.38 19.6%
Oakland 1,168.88 4,535.97 7,975. 70 31,088.00 44,768.55 17.3%
St. Clair 21,668.47 563.69 2, 076.48 3,812.60 28,121.24 10.9%

Washtenaw 1,051.71 1,056.74 3, 203.29 9,962.20 15,273.94 5.9%
Wayne 20,778.21 6,039.67 13,576. 69 43,981.40 84,375.97 32.7%

Lenawee 133.35 454.13 1,124. 41 2,118.44 3,830.32 1.5%

Total 89,630.34 18,212.94 41,019. 99 130,165.33 279,028.59 100.0%

Table 4 VOC Emissions in Southeast Michigan, and Lenawee (Tons/Yr)

County Point Area Non-road On-road Total % of Total
Livingston 177.14 4,338.29 1, 950.70 1,696.90 8,163.03 4.8%

Macomb 2,310.72 11,807.62 5, 025.52 5,784.70 24,928.56 14.7%

Monroe 3,856.65 3,663.62 1, 955.24 1,742.60 11,218.11 6.6%
Oakland 2,495.69 17,387.40 9, 955.41 11,918.00 41,756.50 24.7%
St. Clair 1,664.49 2,671.18 2,209.44 1,550.90 8,096.01 4.8%

Washtenaw 388.83 5,406.23 2, 652.13 3,349.70 11,796.89 7.0%
Wayne 6,494.98 24,887.81 8, 856.99 16,931.10 57,170.88 33.8%

Lenawee 272.10 3,205.00 1,031. 49 1,471.74 5,980.34 3.5%

Total 19,368.09 83,942.61 37, 598.19 54,411.41 195,320.29 100.0% Source for Tables 2 and 3: Michigan’s 2005 base year inventory, on-road emissions for the SEMCOG area generated by SEMCOG.

### Michigan’s Recommended Designations for the 0.075 ppm Ozone NAAQS March 12, 2009

Page 8 Table 5 Population of Southeast Michigan and Lenawee, 2000-2007

County 2000 Population 2007 Population Population Change Growth Rate (%/yr) Percent of 2007 Total Pop.

Livingston 156,951 183,194 26,243 2.2 3.3

Macomb 788,149 831,077 42,928 0.7 15.1

Monroe 145,945 153,608 7,663 0.7 2.8

Oakland 1,194,156 1,206,089 11,933 0.1 21.9

St. Clair 164,235 170,119 5,884 0.5 3.1

Washtenaw 322,895 350,003 27,108 1.1 6.4

Wayne 2,061,162 1,985,101 -76,061 -0.5 36.0

Lenawee 98,890 101,243 2,353 0.3 1.8

Total 5,456,428 5,507,161 50,733 0.1 100

Source: U.S. Census

Table 6 Population Density

County 2000 Pop./sq. mi.

Livingston 276.1

Macomb 1,640.5

Monroe 264.8

Oakland 1,368.6

St. Clair 226.7

Washtenaw 454.8

Wayne 3,356.1

Lenawee 131.8

Source: U.S. Census

Table 7 Lenawee County-2000 Urban/Rural Split

# of persons in urban area 45,355 45.9%

# of persons in rural area 53,535 54.1%

TOTAL 98,890 100.0%

Source: U.S. Census

### Michigan’s Recommended Designations for the 0.075 ppm Ozone NAAQS March 12, 2009

Page 9 Table 8 Southeast Michigan County-to-County Commuting Data

Work In County

Lenawee Livingston Macomb Monroe Oakland St. Clair Washtenaw Wayne Total

Lenawee 31,063 113 54 1,074 504 14 7,008 1,208 41,038

Livingston 98 33,845 1,002 82 17,064 26 11,033 10,549 73,699

Macomb 85 458 224,720 235 94,376 2,941 952 56,211 379,978

Monroe 817 1,332 369 35,202 1,256 44 4,587 12,161 55,768

Oakland 145 4,484 41,935 565 429,030 583 6,723 106,405 589,870

St. Clair 52 52 17,967 57 4,038 48,324 122 3,522 74,134

Washtenaw 872 2,250 715 1,085 6,864 93 129,808 23,269 164,956

Wayne 423 2,469 44,064 4,111 124,137 759 25,015 618,405 819,383Live In

Total 33,555 45,003 330,826 42,411 677,269 52,784 185,248 831,730 2,198,826

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Journey-to-Work (CTPP) data

Table 9 Summer Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled

Year Lenawee SEMCOG area

2000 2,362,255

2005 2,506,136 

### 147,312,316

2010 2,684,798 

### 151,834,658

2015 2,800,613 

### 156,638,125

2020 2,901,403 

### 160,221,828

2025 3,036,161 

### 163,374,474

2030 

### 166,909,207 Source: SEMCOG 2030 Regional Transpor tation Plan and Lenawee County provided by Michigan Department of Transportation.

Table 10 Journey to Work Data from the 2000 U.S. Census

County # of workers in county # of workers who drive

to SEMCOG area % workers who drive

to SEMCOG area % of workers in

SEMCOG area from county*

Lenawee 45,822 9,975 21.8 0.5
*The total number of workers in the 7-county SEMCOG area is 2,208,906Michigan’s Recommended Designationsfor the 0.075 ppm Ozone NAAQSMarch 12, 2009Page 10Table 11Population Projections for Southeast Michigan and LenaweeCounty2000Census2005201020152020202520302035%ChangeLivingston 156,951 181,501 193,740 197,228 200,639 205,602 210,346 213,557 17.7Macomb 788,149 829,765 854,626 867,339 877,357 890,013 906,895 925,723 11.6Monroe 145,945 153,785 156,264 156,652 159,461 163,709 167,588 170,213 10.7Oakland 1,194,156 1,214,481 1,226,169 1,235,849 1,249,154 1,272,065 1,303,678 1,336,761 10.1St. Clair 164,235 171,471 173,122 176,030 180,294 185,038 189,280 192,167 12.1Washtenaw 322,895 341,810 349,673 353,327 356,560 361,715 369,463 380,170 11.2Wayne 2,061,162 1,998,226 1,905,706 1,837,542 1,812,593 1,811,244 1,824,113 1,837,444 -8.1Detroit 951,270 890,963 821,798 769,423 741,934 725,914 715,601 705,128 -20.9BalanceWayne1,109,892 1,107,263 1,083,908 1,068,119 1,070,659 1,085,330 1,108,512 1,132,316 2.3Lenawee 99,039 100,568 101,347 103,077 105,849 6.9Source: 2035 Forecast for Southeast Michigan, SEMCOG, April 2008Lenawee Source: April 2003 REMI Model (Regional Economic Models, Inc.) results provided by the University of Michigan and the MichiganDepartment of Transportation.

### Michigan’s Recommended Designations for the 0.075 ppm Ozone NAAQS March 12, 2009

Page 11 Table 12 Projection of Total Employment for Southeast Michigan and Lenawee County

Year % Change

County 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Livingston 65,603 69,259 74,365 78,720 81,853 84,620 

### 87,323 33.1

Macomb 380,964 374,561 379,326 385,602 389,312 393,282 

### 397,847 4.4

Monroe 52,850 83,479 55,635 56,937 57,600 58,162 

### 58,975 11.6

Oakland 867,687 871,043 897,957 921,811 936,053 947,778 

### 964,418 11.2

St. Clair 62,384 65,188 68,123 70,113 71,661 73,165 

### 74,890 20.1

Washtenaw 231,722 243,605 254,985 263,814 271,611 277,521 

### 285,914 23.4

Wayne 932,480 909,527 908,457 913,495 909,268 905,452 

### 907,973 -2.6

Detroit 342,241 326,615 322,879 320,536 315,078 309,926 

### 307,014 -10.3

Balance Wayne 590,239 532,912 585,578 592,959 594,190 595,526 

### 600,959 1.8

Lenawee 50,880 53,405 54,325 54,428 54,568 7.2 Source: SEMCOG 2035 Regional Development Foreca st, April 2008, and Lenawee County’s numbers are from the 2003 REMI model results provided by the University of Michigan and Michigan Department of Transportation.

Figure 4 Southeast Michigan Urbanized Area

### Michigan’s Recommended Designations for the 0.075 ppm Ozone NAAQS March 12, 2009

Page 12 Figure 5

0

. 0 8 p p m N A A Q S O z o n e D e s i g n a t i o n s J u n e 1 5

, 2 0 0 4

Attainment

Nonattainment

Monitor Site Met 8-hr

Monitor Site Violated 8-hr

### Michigan’s Recommended Designations for the 0.075 ppm Ozone NAAQS March 12, 2009

Page 13 Figure 6

M

VAN

BUREN

BERRIEN CASS ST

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CALHOUN BARRY EATON INGHAM L IVINGSTON OAKLAND MACOMB

MONROE WASHTENAW

BRANCH HILLSDALE LENAWEE ALLEGAN

JACKSON WAYNE MANISTEE

MASON LAKE OSCEOLA WEXFORD

OCEANA

NEWAYGO MECOSTA CLARE GLADWIN

MIDLAND BAY EMMET

CHEBOYGAN

PRESQUE ISLE

ANTRIM OTSEGO MONTMORENCY

ALPENA

ALCONA OSCODA KALKASKA CRAWFORD

BENZIE

MISSAUKEE

ROSCOMMON OGEMAW

IOSCO

HURON

TUSCOLA SANILAC

ST

. CLAIR ISABELLA LEELANAU BARAGA

DELTA IRON ALGER

SCHOOLCRAFT LUCE CHIPPEWA

MACKINAW GOGEBIC ONTONAGON HOUGHTON KEWEENAW

MENOMINEE MARQUETTE

CHARLEVOIX

KENT OTTAWA MUSKEGON

IONIA SHIAWASSEE GENESEE LAPEER

CLINTON MONTCALM SAGINAW ARENAC

7-03 GRATIOT GRAND

TRAVERSE DICKINSON 

# MICHIGAN