CLIMATE VARIATION AND ITS 

EFFECTS ON OUR LAND AND WATER

Part C. Geological Survey Climate Plan

THE NATKWAi CUMAT£ PROGRAM ACT ''

-« «"!=***

GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CIRCULAR 776-C
WORKSHOP ON EARTH SCIENTISTS' PERSPECTIVES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Convened near Denver, Colorado, December 7-9, 1976

WORKSHOP COMMITTEE & EDITORIAL BOARD

David S. Fullerton, committee, editor, Denver, Colo. 

Keith A. Howard, convener, editor, Menlo Park, Calif. 

Richard F. Madole, committee, Denver, Colo. 

Harold E. Malde, committee, Denver, Colo. 

Mark F. Meier, editor, Tacoma, Wash. 

Steven S. Oriel, convener, editor, Denver, Colo. 

Kenneth L. Pierce, chairman of Workshop, Denver, Colo. 

George I. Smith, editor, Menlo Park, Calif.

GUEST SPEAKERS

Alan D. Hecht, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. 

Stephen H. Schneider, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 

Boulder, Colo.

PARTICIPANTS

David P. Adam, Menlo Park, Calif. 

Thomas A. Ager, Reston, Va. 

3. Platt Bradbury, Denver, Colo. 

Parrel A. Branson, Denver, Colo. 

Walter Dean, Denver, Colo. 

Robert W. Fleming, Denver, Colo. 

Norman O. Frederiksen, Reston, Va. 

Irving Friedman, Denver, Colo. 

James V. Gardner, Menlo Park, Calif. 

Edward J. Gilroy, Reston, Va. 

Thomas D. Hamilton, Menlo Park, Calif. 

Darrell G. Herd, Menlo Park, Calif. 

Thor N. V. Karlstrom, Flagstaff, Ariz. 

Denis Marchand, Menlo Park, Calif. 

C. Daniel Miller, Denver, Colo. 

Robert N. Oldale, Woods Hole, Ma. 

Richard Z. Poore, Menlo Park, Calif. 

Gerald M. Richmond, Denver, Colo. 

John N. Rosholt, Jr., Denver, Colo. 

Robert W. Rowland, Reston, Va. 

Meyer Rubin, Reston, Va. 

Eugene M. Shoemaker, Flagstaff, Ariz. 

Robert S. Sigafoos, Reston, Va. 

John D. Sims, Menlo Park, Calif. 

Joshua I. Tracey, Jr., Reston, Va. 

Raymond M. Turner, Tucson, Ariz.

Carl M. Wentworth, Jr., Menlo Park, Calif. 

Issac J. Winograd, Reston, Va. 

Thomas C. Winter, Denver, Colo. 

Jack A. Wolfe, Menlo Park, Calif.

CONSULTANTS

Henry L. Berryhill, Jr., Corpus Christi, Tex.

G. Brent Dalrymple, Menlo Park, Calif.

Maurice J. Grolier, Reston, Va.

Bruce B. Hanshaw, Reston, Va.

David M. Hopkins, Menlo Park, Calif.

Richard J. Janda, Menlo Park, Calif.

Arthur H. Lachenbruch, Menlo Park, Calif.

Clifford A. Kaye, Reston, Va.

Walter B. Langbein, Reston, Va.

Harry F. Lins, Reston, Va.

John O. Maberry, Denver, Colo.

Nicholas C. Matalas, Reston, Va.

John C. Reed, Reston, Va.

Ray E. Wilcox, Denver, Colo.

Paul L. Williams, Denver, Colo.
Climate Variation and Its Effects 

on Our Land and Water

Part C. Geological Survey Climate Plan

By Keith A, Howard and George I. Smith, Editors

GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CIRCULAR 776-C

A product of the Workshop on Earth Scientists' Perspectives of Climate Change, 

convened near Denver, Colorado, December 7-9,1976
United States Department of the Interior

CECIL D. ANDRUS, Secretary

Geological Survey

W. A. Radlinski, Acting Director

Free on application to Branch of Distribution, U.S. Geological Survey, 1200 South Eads Street, Arlington, VA 22202
PREFACE

The enormous impact on society of climatic variation is 

being recognized increasingly by both the public and government. 

Numerous recent publications as diverse as the public press, 

governmental documents, scientific journals, and special volumes 

of learned societies have dealt with the subject. Despite this 

heightened awareness of human vulnerability to shifts of climate, 

solutions to the political and scientific problems involved 

continue to be elusive.

Climate changes constantly. The reasons for climatic 

variability are not well understood, however, despite the 

formulation of many attractive and reasonable hypotheses. 

Perhaps of even greater concern is the growing realization that 

we do not yet fully understand the numerous subtle ways in which 

changing climate affects us. These are problems that merit more 

concentrated scientific attention.

Climate is generally considered primarily of interest to 

atmospheric scientists. Yet all scientists who have dealt with 

the earth, and even with other planetary bodies, have had to 

consider climatic problems. That past changes of climate on 

Earth have exceeded those measured by meteorologists is well 

recorded in rocks and surface features studied by earth 

scientists. The detailed histories of parts of the Earth's crust 

developed in studies of resource and environmental problems 

document beyond doubt that many of the differences in rocks and 

fossils found in local stratigraphic sequences were caused by 

changes in climate and their geological consequences. The rates 

at which geologic processes modify the landscape and impact man's 

use of the land are affected by climatic changes. And water 

supplies are obviously affected by changing climatic patterns.

In the course of their studies of the Earth and its geologic 

history, scientists of the Geological Survey have thus also 

contributed to a better understanding of past climatic changes. 

They are also fully aware of their obligation to help apply that 

knowledge of climatic history to the recognition of present and 

future climatic trends and to their probable future impact on 

human activities.

For these reasons, a workshop was convened near Denver on 

December 7-9, 1976, by scientists of the Geological Survey to 

explore the role of earth science in addressing national needs 

regarding information on climate. This three-part report is an 

outgrowth of the discussions by members of the workshop. Part A 

explores the roles and methods of the earth sciences in climatic 

research. Part B summarizes the types of climate-oriented work 

now being carried out by earth scientists of the Geological 

Survey. Part C proposes a research strategy designed to increase 

our understanding of the earth-science aspects of climatic 

variation.

Director

U.S. Geological Survey

111
CONTENTS

Page 

Preface ------------------------------------------ iii

Summary ------------------------------------------ 1

A program to improve understanding climate

change and its impacts ----------------- 2

Why expand earth-science climate research? ---- 2

Why a USGS climate program? -- --- - 3 

Major objective ------------------------------- 4

Program elements --------------------------------- 5

Consequences of climatic variation on land and

water --------------------------------------- 5

Recurrence of climate variations that affect

land and water resources -------------------- 8

Understanding climate change ----- ___- --- 9

Research related to monitoring climate

variables ----------- ______ _______ _ __ 12

Data management ------------------------------- 13

Management of Geological Survey program ---------- 14
Climate Variation and Its Effects on Our Land and Water 

Part C. Geological Survey Climate Plan

By Keith A. Howard and George I. Smith, Editors

SUMMARY

Earth-science research on climate variation can make major 

contributions toward understanding the causes of climate variation and 

estimating its impacts. Current efforts especially need to be expanded 

that will (1) improve the ability to estimate probabilities and impacts of 

future change, and (2) better document the natural variability of climate 

so as to explore causes of climate.

A program is proposed that will enable the Geological Survey to 

fulfill its national responsibilities as part of the coordinated 

multi-agency National Climate Program. Goals, approaches, and tasks are 

specified for each of five program elements:

 Consequences of climate variation on land and water resources. An 

understanding of geologic, hydrologic, and biologic responses to 

climate change is needed to estimate possible effects of droughts and 

cold seasons, infrequent catastrophic events (flash floods, 

hurricanes, accelerated erosion, landslides, mudflows, and dust 

storms), and slight climate shifts that affect sensitive 

environments. This knowledge will improve resource management.

 Recurrence of climate variations that affect land and water resources. 

Time-sequence data provided by the recent geologic record are needed 

to estimate the probability of recurrence of climate related events 

including droughts and hazardous floods, mudflows, and hurricane 

erosion. Actuarial estimates like these will probably always be the 

main basis for certain land and water management decisions.

 Understanding climate change. Climate history must be better defined 

from the recent geologic record in order to search for recurring 

patterns of change, to determine maximum rates of change, and to 

constrain climate theories, including the effects on climate of 

geologic events such as volcanic eruptions.

 Research related to monitoring climate. Geological Survey research 

will contribute to monitoring and understanding of several components 

of the climate system: ice, snow, and water runoff processes, 

improved interpretation of satellite image data; effects of land use 

on climate; and paleoclimate techniques.

 Data management. This program element will provide effective 

information transfer from scientists to users in order to maximize use 

of climate data in public planning.
A PROGRAM TO IMPROVE

UNDERSTANDING OF CLIMATE

CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS

WHY EXPAND EARTH-SCIENCE RESEARCH ?

Climate is taking on increased 

importance in our national concerns and 

our national planning. A United States 

Climate Program has been recommended 

by the Interdepartmental Committee for 

Atmospheric Sciences} by Congressional 

hearings? and it has received Presidential 

endorsement. Expanded study of climate 

will involve many agencies and disciplines. Earth-science research is 

one of several vital components (fig.

1).

Now is a time of accelerating risk.

As we approach the limits of our 

natural resources, the increasing use 

and misuse of resources poses the danger 

of major economic and political 

upheavals caused by climate variation. 

Concern is spreading that the long-term 

increase of carbon dioxide in the 

atmosphere from the burning of fossil 

fuel is raising global temperatures. 

Temporary imbalances in food production 

and water availability cause major 

economic and political disruptions. Our 

resources of soil, deep ground water, 

and forests are being reduced by misuse. 

If we are to reverse this trend and 

manage our resources intelligently for 

the future, we must know where climate 

is heading and what will be the 

consequences. Now is the time to embark 

on a program of research toward this 

end.

Now also is a time of scientific 

promise. The research capabilities of 

the U.S. Geological Survey and other 

earth-science institutions can 

substantially improve our knowledge of 

climate and its impacts on mankind.

Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences, 1977,. A 

United States Climate Program Plan: Federal Coordinating Council 

for Science, Engineering and Technology, Washington, D.C., 81 p.

2 U.S. House of Rep., 1977, National Climate Act of 1977: 

Washington, D.C., 95th Congress, Rept. No. 95-266, 2H p.

Many studies of climate are already 

underway throughout the world (see lists 

of involved international organizations 

and Federal agencies in Part A of this 

report, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 

776-A). Earth-science team research 

efforts supported by the National 

Science Foundation have, for example, 

led to recent advances in our knowledge 

of oceanic climates through Quaternary 

time? to global maps of ice-age 

conditions essential to the refinement 

of atmospheric circulation models4, and 

to improved abilities to interpret past 

climate from tree rings? Increasingly, 

interdisciplinary efforts are 

integrating earth sciences with 

meteorology and other sciences, and data 

are emerging that hold promise of 

correlating climate variations with such 

events as volcanic eruptions, variations 

in earth orbit, sunspot frequency, and 

perhaps geomagnetic reversals. The 

recent "track record" of these programs 

offers promise of even more progress if 

they are supported adequately.

The Workshop on Earth Scientists' 

Perspective of Climate Change provided a 

focus for and an important step in 

coordinating the diverse climate-related 

investigation activities in the 

Geological Survey. Two companion 

reports from the workshop highlight the 

role of earth science in climatic 

research (U.S. Geological Survey 

Circular 776-A) and summarize current 

climate-related activities in the USGS 

(U.S. Geological Survey Circular 776-B). 

It became clear during the workshop that 

an expanded program of research on the 

earth-science aspects of climate is 

needed to help satisfy an urgent need 

for better information on climatic 

variability and its impacts. This third 

part of the workshop report therefore 

proposes such a program of research.

 Hays, James, Imbrie, John and Shackleton, Nicholas, 1976, 

Variations in Earth's Orbit: Pacemakers of the Ice-Age: 

Science, v. 19*, no. 4270, p. 1121-1132.

4CLIMAP Project Members, 1976, The surface of the ice-age 

Earth: Science, v. 191, no. 4232, p. 1131-11W.

Fritts, Harold, 1976, Tree rings and climate: New York, 

Academic Press, 567 p.
Atmospheric 

sciences

Causes of 

climate variations

Impacts of 

climate variations

1 1

RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

THE

EARTH

Balance of 

ecosystems

Avoid harmful 

changes

WATER

Flood planning and

insurance 

Water-resource

management

Hazard prepare 

tion and insurance

Land-use planning 

and zoning

Crop prediction 

Price stabilization 

Fisheries

regulation 

International

relations

Energy use

Land-use decisions 

on energy 

development

Figure 1. Relation between scientific disciplines and users of climate data.

WHY A USGS CLIMATE PROGRAM ?

The U.S. Geological Survey 

functions as the Government's earth 

scientist. Implicit in this role is a 

responsibility to assure the Government 

and the public that earth-science 

information is being developed at a rate 

sufficient to promote understanding of 

climatic variability and its impacts on 

land and water resources.

The participants in the Geological 

Survey workshop, along with many other 

earth scientists, feel strongly that 

current national efforts toward this 

goal are insufficient. Greater research 

efforts are especially needed to: 

 Obtain better areal and temporal 

records of long-term variations in 

climate in order to document the 

physical limits of the natural 

variability of climate and to 

explore possible causes of climatic 

change.

 Develop quantitative methods of 

estimating probabilities and 

consequences of future climate 

changes so that planners can 

adequately assess their impacts. 

Climatic impacts, especially, have 

received far too little attention. 

Climatic variations and their effects on 

the continents, which impact man most 

directly, need particular emphasis. 

Only with substantially greater effort 

can there be hope of estimating with 

confidence the likelihood and 

consequences of adverse climatic 

variation.

The workshop participants therefore 

recommend that the Geological Survey 

mount a research program devoted to 

understanding climatic variability and 

its consequences on the Nation's land 

and water. A program plan is offered 

here to meet Geological Survey
responsibilities to A_ United States. 

Qimate Program Plan. An object in 

presenting this plan is to seek comment 

and advice from the scientific 

community, government entities, and data 

users that will assist the effectiveness 

of the Geological Survey climate 

program. This expanded program will be 

an integral part of the United States 

Climate Program that is coordinated by 

the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration (NOAA). Agency roles are 

described in _A United States Climate 

FVogram Plan and in Part A of this 

report (U.S. Geol. Survey Circular 

776-A).

Geological Survey earth-science 

research to improve our understanding of 

climate will complement paleoclimatic 

research sponsored by the National 

Science Foundation (NSF). Much of the 

NSF research has been focused on records 

from the deep sea floor. The Geological 

Survey program focuses on continental 

records; it thus complements much of 

the research being carried out by the 

academic community and provides a source 

of in-house technical advice to the 

government on geologic aspects of 

climate.

MAJOR OBJECTIVE

The objective of a climate program 

within the Geological Survey is to 

provide information on past, present, 

and future climates and the possible 

responses of our land and water 

resources to climatic changes. As shown 

in figures 1 and 2, this information may 

be applied both directly to resource 

management and through climate theory to 

modeling and eventual prediction. The 

program must encourage the development 

of basic concepts in earth sciences and 

provide for an efficient flow of 

information both to land and water 

managers and to research programs in 

meteorology and other disciplines that 

need geologic information to provide 

boundary conditions for climate 

theories. Part of this information flow

can be assured through close 

coordination with other Federal agencies 

(fig. 1; see Circular 776-A).

The USGS program will use 

Geological Survey expertise and, through 

grants and contracts, the abilities of 

universities, States, and other 

institutions. The Geological Survey 

program is outlined in figure 2 which 

shows how the five major program 

elements are related:

 Consequences of climate 

variation on land and water 

resources

 Recurrence of climate 

variations that affect 

land and water resources

 Understanding climate change

 Research related to monitoring 

climate

 Data management

These five program elements 

correspond to the program categories 

identified by the United States Climate 

Program Plan (table 1), though the 

correspondence is imperfect because the 

Survey program emphasizes the impacts of 

climatic variation on land and water 

resources. The program is designed to 

fulfill USGS responsibilities to the 

United States Climate Program (table 1). 

Each of the five elements of the 

Geological Survey Climate Plan are 

discussed below, along with examples of 

that element's goals, technical 

approach, and specific tasks.
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIATION CAUSES OF CLIMATE VARIATION

CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE "\ f RECURRENCE OF 

VARIATION ON LAND AND WATER ) (CLIMATE VARIATIONS THAT AFFECT] 

RESOURCES LAND AND WATER RESOURCES.

Improved knowledge in near future

\ /

Actuarial estimates of risks associated with 

future climate variation

\DATA MANAGEMENT * 

/* \

SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVE

Better estimates of consequences 

of future climatic variation

probabilities

-trends

magnitude 

_________timing__________

X^UNUNDERSTANDING CLIMATE 

CHANGE

Effects

Past climates of geologic 

phenomena

Improved knowledge in more distant future

nproved atmospheric models

Anticipated trends of future climatic variation

Figure 2.--Geological Survey Climate Plan showing interrelations of the major program elements (circled)

PROGRAM ELEMENTS

CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE VARIATION 

ON LAND AND WATER RESOURCES

Goals

Develop fundamental understanding 

of geologic, hydrologic, and 

biologic response to climate 

conditions and climate change for 

different environments. 

Distinguish effects of changing 

land and water use from geologic 

and hydrologic responses to 

variable climate.

Evaluate the dependency of hazards 

(such as landslides or mudflows) on 

climate and better understand the 

effects of catastrophic climatic 

events (such as hurricane-induced 

floods) that occur too infrequently 

in the historical record for 

adequate knowledge. 

Determine the expected reaction of 

sensitive and fragile environments

such as arid lands, tundra, 

wetlands, and strip-mined lands to 

slight shifts in climate. 

 Understand the effects of droughts 

and assess the interdependence of 

water and other resources as a 

basis for improved water management 

strategies.

Approach

Sound environmental planning in the 

future will include consideration of the 

physical consequences that would result 

from possible variations in climate 

patterns. Knowledge of the probable 

responses of land and water resources 

can be obtained from extrapolation of 

the changing balances between the land, 

water, and life systems during minor 

variation of our present climate, and 

from earth-science evidence of the past 

balances under different climates.

Data must be obtained on current 

processes, such as erosion, and 

intergrated with data from the past 

record, such as geologic evidence for
Table 1.--USGS Responsibilities to United States Climate Program

Category in Estimate of 

United States FY 1979 funding 

Climate Program in all agencies 

Plan ($ million)

A. Climate 6.3

variability

$ national

activities

B. Diagnosis § 7.9

projection

of shortterm climate

variability

C. Climate 31.0

research

D. Observations 45.9

for climate

research and

services

Implied USGS 

responsibilities 

in this program

Impacts on land,

water resources

$ energy development (pp. 11-14) 1

Estimate variability § probability of occurrence of climate

events; including

climate effects

such as runoff

(pp. 17, 18,

20-21, 29-31}

Paleoclimatic data

and analysis,

especially the

continental

record (pp. 24-27

34, 37)

Assess climate

modification due

to land-use

changes, research

efforts related to

monitoring of fresh

water, snow/ice,

soil moisture,

albedo; paleoclimatic technique

development (pp.

39-40, 47-50)

Other agencies 

that can 

contribute

USDA (droughts,

soil resources,

plants), EPA

(water quality) >

DOE (stored

radioactive

waste)

NSF (tree ring

sequences), NOAA

(statistical

techniques) ,

DOI/OWRT

(drought

sequence)

NSF (especially

tree-ring and

sea-floor data)

NASA (satellite

monitoring and

technique

development) ,

NSF and DOD

(ice processes) >

NSF (paleoclimate)

USGS program Current USGS 

element missions 

FY 19782 

($ million)

Consequences of 1.4

climate variation on land

and water

resources

Recurrence of 0.3

climate variations that

affect land

and water

resources 3

Understanding 3.5

climate change

Research 1.2

related to

monitoring

climate

management 13.2 Water Resource and 

Landsat data banks. 

Data transfer. 

Possibly coordinate 

all paleoclimatic 

information (pp. 

48, 52, 53-54, 56, 

58-59, 63-67)

MOM/EDS now Data management 

investigating 

needs § may 

set up data 

bank for 

paleoclimate 

data

0.5

Total 104.3 6.9

numbers in United States Program Plan. 

2 Current USGS investigations related to climate are undertaken for missions with objectives other than climate. 

USGS plans to allot $1 million in FY 1979 for climate impacts (category A) and climate research (category C). 

This USGS program element is directed toward impacts of climate variation and could be assigned to either 

category A or B of the United States Climate Program Plan.

erosion, in order to develop an 

understanding of the physical and 

chemical mechanisms involved. 

Fundamental knowledge of such processes 

will improve appraisals of the response 

of land, water, and life to climatic 

variation. This will allow, for 

instance, an understanding of the 

relative importance of climate variation 

versus land use on desertification.

Fundamental understanding of processes, 

furthermore, aides in interpreting 

paleoclimatic data from indirect 

evidence in the geologic record and 

thereby reconstructing past climates. 

Priority areas for research are 

sensitive environments such as the arid 

Southwest, Alaska tundra, semi-arid 

Great Plains (whose agriculture is very 

sensitive to climate), and wetlands of
the Southeast. Records of past and 

current changes are most pronounced in 

such areas and the impacts of future 

changes will be greatest there.

Tasks

 Relate changes in surface and 

underground water resources to 

observed climates.

 Determine the physical effects of 

flash floods, as examples of 

climatic extremes, in Appalachia, 

Colorado, and the Southwest.

 Determine the erosional and 

offshore depositional effects of 

infrequent catastrophic coastal 

storms along the Gulf and Atlantic 

coasts.

 Study processes and rates of 

natural and man-induced wind 

erosion and deposition in times of 

drought.

Monitor the response of glaciers to 

varying climate in order to assess 

hazards from outbursts on 

glacier-dammed lakes and calving of 

icebergs into shipping lanes. 

Determine the effects of disruption 

of tundra and permafrost under 

warmer conditions. 

Prepare regional and national maps 

of land and water conditions at 

times of extreme past climates, 

such as the cold regime 300 years 

ago and the warm period about 6000 

years ago, and assess how future 

land use could be adapted to those 

conditions under future climates. 

Perform an audit of the 1930's 

drought in order to guide in the 

development of drought contingency 

plans.

Search for climate correlations 

with vegetation changes over time

? ?'«*: >[/' ground wate

'" ;,-'V: ;^ .. ; .'"'Silt, redeposited by wind

Drought-caused wind erosion and soil loss ,-

Impacts of changing climate on land and water: some geologic and hydrologic consequences

7
in monumented plots, and 

distinguish natural effects from 

changing use of water by man.

 Search for periods of extreme cold 

in the recent geologic record 

to determine the possible 

consequences of climates colder 

than those of historic times.

 Determine the effects of 

drought-related forest fires in 

Alaska and California on subsequent 

erosion of denuded slopes and 

sedimentation downstream.

RECURRENCE OF CLIMATE VARIATIONS 

THAT AFFECT LAND AND WATER RESOURCES

Goals

 Develop geologic and hydrologic 

evidence of variations in 

frequency, rate, duration, and 

magnitude of climate-related events 

in our present interglacial 

climate, including droughts, 

floods, mudflows, hurricanes, and 

cold spells.

 Improve an understanding of the 

statistical structure of climate 

processes.

 Provide estimates, based on past 

frequencies, of the probability of 

climate-related events and their 

geologic and hydrologic 

consequences.

Approach

Estimates of the occurrence 

probability of climate-related events 

are essential to good management of land 

and water. These estimates include the 

possible frequency and magnitude of 

extreme events that cause hazards, such 

as floods, landslides, and mudflows. 

Other estimates involve the persistence 

and statistical structure of a climatic 

sequence, such as estimates of maximum, 

minimum, and average streamflows needed 

for planning a multipurpose reservoir. 

These actuarial estimates will probably 

always be the main basis for certain

land and water planning activities.

Improved knowledge of the 

probability of recurrence of future 

climate-related events will be acquired 

by:

Extending historical 

information on climate-related 

events farther back in time, thus 

enabling improved estimates of 

future occurrence,

Developing time-sequence 

data in areas or in regard to 

processes where historical data 

do not exist,

Providing very long 

sequences of data related to 

climate that can be used to 

understand the statistical 

structure of climatic processes.

Knowledge of rates of possible 

climate variation could provide planners 

and policy makers with a basis for 

estimating lead times that might be 

available prior to future climate 

variations. The detailed knowledge of 

rates of change can come from the study 

of transitional periods in climatically 

sensitive records, such as erosion, 

deposition, glacier fluctuations, and 

especially tree rings, snow layers, 

coral layers, and varved sediments that 

allow resolution of individual years.

Investigations will focus on the 

recurrence patterns of hydrologic and 

geologic events caused by climate, 

especially in environments where the 

records are most sensitive to change and 

in environments that yield geologic 

records having high time resolution. 

Recurrence estimates must be combined 

with quantitative information on 

climate-induced geologic and hydrologic 

processes to provide a quantitative 

basis for risk assessment. This second 

program element then is closely related 

to and interdependent with the first 

one.

8
Tasks UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE

Develop a history of drought 

recurrence, magnitude, and duration 

in the recent geologic record of 

the arid Southwest and the Great 

Plains using evidence from tree 

rings, plant communities, 

deposition of windblown dust, lake 

sediments, and arroyo cutting and 

arroyo alluvial deposition. 

Develop long chronologies of 

streamflow for rivers in 

California, Washington, the 

Southwest, and the Great Plains 

using tree rings and other evidence 

in order to improve information 

about the persistence and frequency 

of low flows.

Determine the extent to which our 

designed water resource systems are 

sufficiently resilient to cope with 

extreme droughts and with 

post-drought recovery (abandoning 

wells, returning to the use of 

surface water, and recharging the 

ground water supply). 

Develop methods for identifying and 

dating hurricane passage in 

nearshore sediment and fauna, and 

develop time sequences of hurricane 

recurrence along the Gulf and 

Atlantic coasts.

Develop a chronology of alluviation 

over the past several hundred years 

in a variety of settings across the 

continent in order to establish the 

frequency and distribution of 

catastrophic flood events. 

Develop a history of flash flooding 

in Appalachia, the Colorado Front 

Range, and the Southwest by dating 

old flood deposits using botanical 

and radiocarbon techniques. 

Perform statistical analyses and 

seek persistent patterns in tree 

ring records of climate.

Goals

 Develop a basic record of past 

climatic patterns on the continent 

to identify geologic constraints to 

the development of climate theories 

and models.

 Determine whether distinctive 

patterns of climatic sequences have 

recurred in the geologic record.

 Determine the rates of past major 

changes in climate and whether 

"warning signs" of change can be 

identified.

 Evaluate the potential effects on 

climate of geologic phenomena such 

as volcanic eruptions.

Approach

A major challenge facing science is to 

develop a capacity for short- and 

long-range climate prediction. To 

approach this will require sustained 

long-term efforts in many scientific 

disciplines. An initial objective must 

be to understand the climatic 

variability of the past.

It is the earth sciences that 

provide long records of past climatic 

variation. These records allow modern 

climates to be viewed with a long-term 

perspective, and they are essential to 

the development of useful models of 

climate change.

"In general, the record of 

past climate indicates that 

the longer the available 

record, the more extreme 

are the apparent climatic 

variations. An immediate 

consequence of this... 

characteristic is that 

the largest climatic 

changes are not revealed by 

the relatively short record 

of instrumental observation 

but must instead be sought 

through paleoclimatic
studies. The record of 

past climates also contains 

important information on 

the range of climatic 

variability, the mean 

recurrence interval of rare 

climatic events, and the 

tendency for systematic 

timewise behavior or 

periodicity. Such climatic 

characteristics are in 

general shown poorly, if at 

all, by the available 

instrumental records."6

A global shift in atmospheric 

circulation that initiated major 

climatic change would be enormously 

disruptive. Even though the larger 

consequences could require centuries to 

develop fully, the Earth's inhabitants 

and their terrestrial resources could be 

severely affected by adverse climate in 

a very short time. Some evidence 

suggests, for example, that persisting 

snow (incipient glaciers) could form 

over large areas in just a very few 

years, causing worldwide cooling and 

possibly an irreversible progression 

toward a full-blown ice age. The 

atmospheric behavior prior to such 

climatic change is unknown, but study of 

the geologic record of past changes 

offers hope that we can learn something 

of two aspects: (1) the nature of any 

warning signs that precede major change, 

and (2) the possible rates of major 

climatic changes. Some of the most 

complete records of global climate 

change through the last several 

glaciations are derived from analysis of 

ocean-bottom cores, but the very nature 

of these data precludes much information 

of rates of atmospheric change or 

climatic fluctuations of short duration 

such as 100 years or less. 

Short-interval information on past 

climatic sequences ajid the rates of 

climate change at times of maximum

° National Academy of Sciences, 1975, Understanding climatic 

change A program for action: Washington, D.C., National Academy 

of Sciences, p. 36.

change can be obtained most accurately 

from the paleoclimatic record on land.

Evidence is mounting that climate 

may be markedly influenced by volcanic 

eruptions, dust storms, and perhaps 

other geologic phenomena such as 

geomagnetic reversals. High-altitude 

dust from large eruptions has been known 

to persist in the stratosphere for 

months and markedly change the radiation 

balance on regional and global scales. 

Can climate change be triggered by such 

events? The answer can come from 

geologic records of large eruptions and 

dust-erosion events when they are 

correlated precisely with a detailed 

climate history of the same periods. 

The volumes of ash from large 

prehistoric eruptions are indicated by 

the areal extent and thickness of 

correlative ash layers in geologic 

sections. Major dust storms are 

identified by their erosional and 

depositional records.

How seriously do man's activities 

impact the climate? The recent National 

Academy of Sciences book Energy and 

Climate raises concern that increased 

atmospheric carbon dioxide from the 

burning of fossil fuel could cause 

global warming, possibly to the point of 

eventually melting the ice caps and 

flooding coastal cities. Estimates of 

such manmade effects, which are vitally 

needed for policy decisions, will emerge 

as the controls and mechanics of our 

climate system become better understood. 

One key to possible causes comes from 

study of climatic responses to boundary 

conditions vastly different from 

today's; these conditions are 

represented both in the record of the 

geologic past and in the geologic record 

of climatic history on Mars and other 

planets.

10
Tasks

 Search the geologic record for 

recurring climate sequences or 

cycles in fragile environments 

where small climate changes cause 

large changes in ecologic balance, 

and in lakes and bogs where 

continuous rapid sedimentation has 

taken place.

 Determine maximum rates of climate 

change from detailed study of 

high-resolution climatically 

sensitive records (pollen, fossils, 

tree rings, chemical precipitates, 

glacier variations, snow layers) 

for times of maximum atmospheric 

change.

 Define a high-resolution, record of 

climate history through Quaternary 

time from sites of rapid 

sedimentation on the continent, and 

use this to refine and improve 

calibration of the lower resolution 

sea-floor records now available.

 Search for warning signs of major 

climate change by studying patterns 

of hydrologic, geologic, biologic, 

and chemical responses for times 

that preceded major change.

 Relate the stable-isotope 

composition of rain and snow to 

the meteorological processes that 

fractionate the isotopes, and 

determine which chemical processes 

modify those compositions as the 

moisture is incorporated into 

minerals, soil, glacier ice, ground 

water, and plants.

 Investigate the effects of water, 

plants, and geologic materials on 

the atmospheric flux of carbon 

dioxide.

 Study modern examples of possible 

climate alteration by volcanic 

eruptions and dust storms, using 

field and remote-sensing 

techniques.

 Investigate possible correlations 

in the geologic past between major 

eruptions or dust storms and

climate change, and seek to measure 

the influence of such events on 

regional and global climate.

 Search for correlations between 

climate and changes in the 

geomagnetic field, and explore 

possible cause-and-effect 

relationships.

 Determine geologic evidence of the 

long-term climatic history of Mars 

and other planets in order to 

compare effects of grossly 

different boundary conditions.

 Improve our understanding of how 

continental glaciation begins and 

whether one or a few years of 

unmelted snow across northern 

North America could trigger a 

full-blown ice age.

 Seek isotopic means to determine 

the history of atmospheric carbon 

dioxide in the recent geologic past 

and whether climate has responded 

to natural changes in carbon 

dioxide content.

 Determine the climatic patterns 

across the continent for the warm 

period about 6000 years ago as a 

guide to the conditions that might 

be expected if the atmosphere warms 

because of increased carbon dioxide 

from burning fossil fuels.

 Develop time-slice maps of North 

American continental climate as 

needed by NSF's CLIMAP project and 

other interagency projects that are 

seeking to refine general 

circulation models of the 

atmosphere.

11
RESEARCH RELATED TO MONITORING CLIMATE 

Goals

 Develop understanding of the 

processes governing drainage basins 

and snow and ice fields and the 

relations between precipitation, 

temperature, and cloudiness and 

runoff, glacier flow and icebergs.

 Improve techniques for determing 

snow cover, soil moisture and 

temperature, and other 

ground-surface characteristics.

 Evaluate land-use effects on local 

and regional climate.

 Improve techniques for documenting, 

dating, and determining climatic 

parameters from geologic materials.

Approach

The climate system contains three 

main interacting fluid components (air, 

sea, ice) subject to the boundary 

conditions of the earth's surface 

configuration and rotation and the sun's 

radiation. Primary responsibility for 

routine monitoring of the air and sea 

components lies with other agencies and 

institutions. Geological Survey 

responsibilities include improving 

understanding of the interactions 

between precipitation, snow and ice, 

cloudiness, and runoff. Major advances 

in understanding glacial processes, 

especially, must be made.

Support of regional and global 

monitoring of the present climate 

requires improved techniques for 

determining snow cover in forested 

areas, soil moisture and vegetative 

cover. Development of such techniques 

will enable the appropriate agencies 

to monitor changing land, water, 

and snow and ice conditions 

regionally and globally from 

satellite so as to provide data for 

climate models.

Land use may affect local and 

regional climate directly through 

changes such as in albedo, in 

evaporation of moisture, and in the 

atmospheric content of wind-blown dust. 

These effects can be properly evaluated 

only when we develop a thorough 

understanding of the interactions 

between solar radiation, the atmosphere, 

and different ground and dust 

characteristics. This understanding 

will be promoted by continued monitoring 

of land use and by comparison of modern 

effects with those indicated in the 

historic and geologic record.

Development of highly specialized 

techniques offers the promise for rapid 

expansion of paleoclimatic knowledge. 

The successful attainment of the goals 

of the USGS climate program will require 

expanded facilities and skills for 

documenting, dating, and determining the 

climatic significance of geologic 

materials. Some techniques, such as 

determining past temperature from 

isotopic composition, need testing and 

improvement. Others, such as in 

tree-ring research, are developed but 

need enhanced facilities to carry them 

out. Still others, such as improved 

dating and correlation, need to be 

developed so as to fill "blind spots" in 

the existing technology.

Tasks

 Investigate the mechanisms of 

growth, basal sliding and surging 

of glaciers in order to understand 

the dynamics and thermodynamics of 

the major ice sheets and their 

long-term interactions with the 

oceans and atmosphere.

 Develop models that can provide 

quantitative climate information 

from data on the advance and 

retreat of glaciers.

 Improve techniques for 

interpreting snow and ice data from 

remote sensing.

 Improve techniques for obtaining 

soil-moisture and temperature 

information from remote sensing.

12
 Determine the properties and 

potential effects on climate of 

wind blown dust caused by poor land 

use.

 Develop remote-sensing techniques 

to determine changes in albedo, net 

radiation, and radiation 

temperature caused by changing land 

use in order to evaluate possible 

modifications to climate.

 Develop low-cost and versatile 

methods of artificially exposing 

sediments and obtaining cores.

 Expand the known volcanic-ash 

chronology as a dating tool.

 Improve the ability to interpret 

chemical and isotopic content of 

tree rings.

 Establish a detailed history of the 

evolution of ecologically very 

sensitive fossil groups in 

Quaternary time through 

establishing an improved 

biochronology of associated rapidly 

evolving fossils.

 Develop radiometric age techniques 

for sediments too old for carbon-14 

and too young for potassium-argon 

methods.

 Establish transfer functions by 

which rainfall and temperature can 

be better estimated from chemical, 

isotopic, and biologic composition 

of geologic materials.

 Establish a network of geologic 

benchmark stations where the 

geologic response to climate can be 

monitored over time.

DATA MANAGEMENT 

Goals

 Assure that technical data on 

earth-science aspects of climate 

are easily available to both 

scientific and nonscientific users.

 Provide a focus for public and 

technical inquiry for information 

on earth-science aspects of 

climate.

 Promote the use in public planning 

of data on climatic impacts.

Approach

Management of the enormous base of 

data needed for climate research and 

services under the United States Climate 

Program Plan is the primary 

responsibility of other agencies, but 

they will be supported by two current 

USGS archive activities as well as by 

activities in NOAA and other agencies. 

The Geological Survey has primary 

responsibility for cataloging United 

States hydrologic data in the National 

Water Data Exchange (NAWDEX), and also 

for maintaining files of Landsat 

satellite imagery and aerial photograph 

data at the Earth Resources Data Center. 

The Survey is working with NSF and the 

Environmental Data Service (EDS) of NOAA 

to investigate needs for central data 

cataloging of paleoclimatic data.

A major additional need for data 

management is in making relevant data 

more readily available to users. 

Publication of accurate technical 

information in reports and maps is a 

USGS tradition. Transfer of information 

to users can be further accomplished 

through workshops and public-oriented 

products designed to be directly useful 

in planning and policy making for land 

and water use.

Tasks

 Prepare maps that show risk of 

various land uses to climatic 

variation.

 Develop dynamic models that 

simulate interaction of land, 

water, energy, and food resources 

in various climate scenarios.

 Develop water-management strategies 

that utilize the improved data on 

hydrologic and biologic responses 

to possible climate variations.

 Make regional assessments of 

climate-related hazards for use in 

land-use planning, disaster 

preparation, and insurance.

 Maintain close interaction with the 

public through workshops, 

nontechnical reports and through

13
information that can be used by 

local public advisors such as 

agents of the Soil Conservation 

Service.

Encourage educational institutions 

to devote more attention to the 

specialized techniques required in 

earth-science investigations 

related to climate.

BENEFITS

Exact achievements of expanded 

Geological Survey research on 

climate of course cannot be predicted. Full implementation of 

the USGS Climate Plan is likely to 

result, however, in improvements 

in our capability for prediction, 

planning, and management of:

 -food production

 surface and ground water 

supplies

 -flood hazards

 -soil resources

 wind erosion and deposition

 -arroyo cutting and gullying

 fragile environments

 -lake and reservoir levels

 hurricanes and catastrophic 

coastal storms

 landslides and mudflows

 glacier hazards

 land use and development

MANAGEMENT OF GEOLOGICAL 

SURVEY PROGRAM

The expanded earth-science climate 

program will involve the participation 

of many groups within the Geological 

Survey as well as in universities, 

States, and other recipients of grants 

and contracts. The accompanying 

organization chart of the USGS 

highlights the three active 

participating units of the Survey: the 

Geologic Division, Water Resources 

Division, and Office of Land Information 

and Analysis. An interdivision 

committee under the lead of the Geologic 

Division's Office of Environmental 

Geology is being established to ensure 

coordination of current and future 

climate-related research within the 

agency. Review of the expanded program 

can best be accomplished through 

establishment of an advisory committee. 

Liaison with other agencies involved in 

the national climate program is provided 

through several current biagency 

coordinating committees and through the 

Climate Program Coordinating Office 

recently set up in the National Oceanic 

and Atmospheric Administration to 

coordinate the climate activities of all 

Federal agencies. Climate is inherently 

a global problem and its study has many 

international aspects. These require 

that the Geological Survey coordinate 

with and participate in many of the 

international programs listed in Part A 

(Circular 776-A).

14
ASSISTANT DJR :TOK~

LAND RESOURCES

ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES

"'VIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION

'MINISTRATION

OGRAM ANALYSIS

STERN REGION

NTRAL REGION

"STERN REGION

CHIEF, LAND INFORMATION AND ANALY:

ASSOCIATE CHIEF. RESEARCH AND TECI

:IATE CHIEF, PROGRAM MANAGEM

RESOURCE AND LAh 

^STIGATIONS PROGi

CHIEF, TOPOGRAPHIC DIVISION 

ASSOCIATE CHIEF

CHIEF HYDROLOGIST 

ASSOCIATE CHIEF HYDROLOGIST

CHIEF GEOLOGIST

DEPUTY CHIEF GEOLOGIST, OPERATIONS 

DEPUTY CHIEF GEOLOGIST, PROGRAM AND 

BUDGET

v~,>JSERVATlON DIVISION

CHIEF. CONSERVATION DIVISION 

ASSOCIATE CHIEF

OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL 

GEOLOGY

iFFICE OF THE ASSISTANT CHIEF

FOR RESEARCH AND TECHNICAL

COORDINATION

OFFICE OF MINERAL RESOURCES

Branches

Eastern

Central

Western

Alaskan Geology

Exploration Research

Office of Resource Analysis

Branches

Eastern

Central

Western

Kentucky Geology

Engineering Geology

Special Projects

Astrogeologic Studies

Paleontology and Stratigraphy

DEPUTY ASSISTANT CHIEF 

CHIEF, COMPUTER DIVISION FOR RESEARCH

ASSISTANT CHIEF Branches 

Surface Water 

Ground Water 

n-iai'ty of Water

PUBLICATIONS DIVISION OFFICE OF GEOCHEMISTRY 

AND GEOPHYSICS

CHIEF, PUBLICATIONS DIVISION 

ASSOCIATE CHIEF

OFFICE OF THE ASSISTANT CHIEF

FOR SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS

AND DATA MANAGEMENT

Branches

Experimental Geochemistry

and Mineralogy 

Field Geochemistry

and Petrology 

Isotope Geology 

Regional Geochemistry 

Analytical Laboratories 

Petrophysics and Remote

Sensing 

Electromagnetism and

Geomagnetism 

Regional Geophysics

OFFICE OF EARTHQUAKE 

STUDIES

OFFICE Cr THE ASSISTANT CHIEF 

FOR OPERATIONS

Seismic Engineering 

Seismicity and Earth Structure 

Earthquake Mechanics and

Prediction

rthquake Hazards

ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION

CHIEF, ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION 

DEPUTY CHIEF

ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICER

Branches

Oil and Gas Resources

Coal Resources

Chemical Resources

Uranium and Thorium Resources

OFFICE OF INTERNATIONAL 

GEOLOGY

ranch

Latin American and African Geology 

Middle Eastern and Asian Geology OFFICE OF MARINE GEOLOGY

Branches

Pacific-Arctic Geology

' antic-Gulf of Mexico Geology

Northeastern-Reston, Mi 

Southeastern-Atlanta, G 

Central-Denver, Colo. 

Western-Menlo Park, Ce

:astern-Reston. Va. 

Central-Denver, Colo. 

Western-Menlo Park, Calif
CLIMATE VARIATION AND ITS EFFECTS 

ON OUR LAND AND WATER

Circular 776-A - Earth Science in Climate Research

CONTENTS

Roles and methods of earth science in climate research 

Types of evidence available 

Lengths of time involved 

Areas most affected by climate change

Agencies and institutions concerned with climate change

Circular 776-B - Current Research by the Geological Survey

CONTENTS

Past traditions and present responsibilities 

Current research

Summary and selected highlights of current work

I. Present climate-related processes and indices

II. Short-term changes in climate

III. Long-term changes in climate

IV. Areal distributions of past climates

V. Dating and correlation methods 

Selected bibliography
HOWARD AND SMITH-CLIMATE VARIATION AND ITS EFFECTS: USGS CLIMATE PLAN-GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CIRCULAR 776-C

Names and bounding ages of geologic eras, periods, and epochs, and frequently used names of Quaternary stages.

Geologic time scale, complete

Era or Erathem

Paleozoic

Mesozoic

Cenozoic

Proterozoic 

& Archeozoic

System or Period

Quaternary

Tertiary

Cretaceous

Permian

Triassic

Jurassic

£ 3 £ Pennsylvanian 

-Q 221

$^3) Mississippian

Devonian

Silurian

Precambrian

Cambrian

Ordovician

Estimated ages of 

time boundaries, in 

millions of years ago

^. \j

i 

65 

*j\j 

i nn

O 

ooon

225 

I vy 

410 

QCf)

A O C

A O/"\

600 

/c;nn + 

Cenozoic time scale

Series or Epoch

| Tertiary

Quaternary

Oligocene

Miocene

Pliocene

Pleistocene

Holocene

Eocene

Paleocene

Estimated ages of 

time boundaries, in 

millions of years ago

o 

o.oi 

q

5.5 

A<;

54 

OO

n^

Quaternary 

stage names

.0 £

O QJ 

I U

Pleistocene

( interglacial )

( 

Wisconsin 

glacial )

Sangamon 

( interglacial )

Illinoian 

( glacial )

Yarmouth 

( interglacial )

Kansan 

( glacial )

Aftonian 

( interglacial )

Nebraskan 

( glacial )