US. Department of Energy 

Clothes Washer Shipments 

Spreadsheet Instructions 

/?/G 

June 1999 

The Clothes Washer Shipments Spreadsheet is a spreadsheet used to estimate future clothes 

washers sales. The model uses clothes washer stock accounting together with a consumer 

decision model and clothes washer repair and breakdown information to forecast future clothes 

washer shipments under a variety of potential efficiency standards scenarios. 

The Welcome sheet is the main user interface for shipment forecast calculations. When the user 

clicks on the Welcome worksheet tab, a user interface appears. Different standard levels, and 

Bcenarios for price and features elasticity, and discount rates can be selected by the user. 

Basic Operating Instructions: 

l. Once you have downloaded the shipments spreadsheet file from the Web, open the file 

using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for the Welcome worksheet. 

2. The screen will display two tables ("Average Impact 2003 to 2030" and "Impact at 2003 ") 

and three charts ("Shipments of Clothes Washers", "Age of Retired Clothes Washers",and 

"Mean Age of Clothes Washers."). (Use Excel's commands at the top "View/Zoom" to 

change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor.) 

3. To run different scenarios or standards cases, simply choose the desired options in the four 

list boxes which appear in the upper left of the worksheet. Click on the arrow on the right 

side of each box to see the options. The first of the four boxes can be used to choose low, 

medium or high price elasticity. The second box can be used to separately choose the 

features elasticity for top-loading vs. front-loading clothes washers. The third can be used 

to choose the standard's efficiency level (e.g. 35% means a 35% reduction in energy 

consumption according to the DOE test procedure. See Technical Support Document 

(TSD) for details). The fourth list box is used to choose a price markup. The reference 

price markup is the average current markup for the indtistry as calculated in the 

Preliminary TSD of October 1998. The high, medium, and low markup levels are derived 

from the Manufacturer Impact Analysis. 

4. The spreadsheet is also designed so that the user can change the various internal 

parameters of the shipments forecast model. The specific values of the shipments model 

parameters are defined in the Inputs worksheet. Those squares that represent input 

parameters are highlighted in yellow. The user may also change these parameters in order 

to investigate different model sensitivities. 

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Using these steps the user can explore the model predictions and how these vary depending on the 

assumptions and model parameters that are used. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) 

,What does the Clothes Washer Shipments Spreadsheet do? 

The clothes washer shipments model provides a forecast of the potential sales impacts of 

different clothes washer efficiency standards. The purpose of the model is to provide a 'best 

guess' of future sales under various scenarios. The spreadsheet also contains estimated 

populations of each age category of washers for each year. Furthermore, estimates of several 

categories of purchases are provided including early replacements, regular replacements, and used 

clothes washer sales. 

'What are the Worksheets in the Workbook? 

In order to simplify the organization and presentation of the spreadsheet calculations, the 

computations are segregated into separate worksheets. We refer the user to the shipments model 

documentation in the Final Technical Support Document (TSD) for many of the details of the 

4:;alculations. Below we describe in general terms the different functions of the individual 

:)preadsheets. 

Welcome 

This sheet is the main user page. It provides the list boxes where a user can select a range 

of shipment forecast scenarios. The user can choose the standard level and a range of elasticities 

with respect to washer price and features. (An elasticity is the percent change in the output, in 

this case shipments, from a percent change in an input, such as washer price.) The sales forecast 

is illustrated along with changes in mean clothes washer age and lifetime. Tables are presented 

which summarize tlie impacts relative to a baseline case calculated with medium values for the 

assumptions. This worksheet is protected to help the user avoid erroneous modifications. The 

sheet can be unprotected by going to Tools-> Protection-> Unprotect Sheet. 

Inputs 

The Inputs sheet contains the detailed inputs to the shipments forecast model. These 

inputs include the elasticities and initial market shares for each of the market segments, the market 

discount rate, the definition of the high, medium, and low elasticity scenarios, and the estimation 

of the price, operating cost, and features changes for each of the standards levels. The nonhighlighted cells in this worksheet are protected to help the user avoid erroneous modifications. 

The sheet can be unprotected by going to Tools-> Protection-> Unprotect Sheet. 

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Shipment Forecast 

The Shipment Forecast worksheet provides the detailed estimates and accounting of 

clothes washer populations. This sheet contains the core of the shipments calculation and the 

tables which specify the estimates of each type of clothes washer purchase. The tables in the 

sheet provide accounting of each type of clothes washer ownership category, and each type of 

clothes washer purchase for each age category of clothes washer. The detailed equations that are 

used to calculate the flow of clothes washer stocks are presented in the Final TSD. The total 

numbers of clothes washer sales of each category are tabulated in summary tables in the cell range 

AG5 to AS88. 

Charts 

The Charts worksheet provides additional illustrations of the model outputs. These 

illustrations include the proportion of new vs. used shipments, a chart of the different types of 

clothes washer sales (e.g., new homes, early replacements, regular retirements, non-owner 

conversions, and "extra repair" retirements) for both new and used shipments (in units shipped), 

and a plot of estimated gross annual sales of new machines (in dollars). 

Energy Price 

This worksheet provides input data of the forecasted energy prices and income. The 

energy. prices are described in the Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 

(see URL http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo99/homepage.html ). 

MS New Homes 

Here we provide the market share calculation for the new housing market. A logit 

probability of purchase model estimates how purchase probabilities change as a function of price, 

operating cost savings, and features changes. Details of the model are explained in the Final 

Ti::chnical Support Document. 

MS Early Replace 

Here we provide the market share calculation for the early replacement market based on 

the logit probability of purchase model, and an initial probability of purchase that is a linear 

function of clothes washer age. 

MS non-owner 

This sheet provides the market share calculation for the non-owners who purchase clothes 

washers and become new clothes washer owners. 

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MS New vs Used 

Here we provide the market share calculation for the consumer choosing between 

purchasing a new or a used washer. 

MS Replace 

This worksheet calculates the probability of replacement vs. repair as a function of 

e:conomic decision parameters for each year. The annual probability of replacement is calculated 

for each age category of clothes washer. 

Retirement Function 

The worksheet shows the fraction of washers that are expected to retire as a function of 

years since the washer was purchased new. (Repairs may extend the life of the washer, and are 

accounted for in the sheet "Shipment Forecasts.") 

lflow does the user operate the spreadsheet? 

The user operates the spreadsheet by going to the Welcome worksheet and choosing the 

parameters for the scenarios of interest. These parameters include whether the values of the 

elasticities are high, medium, or low, and one of 9 possible standard levels. The results will be 

displayed in the chart on the Welcome worksheet and in the tables which detail changes in sales, 

shipments, washer age, repair rate, and replacement rate for the early replacement market. 

'What kind of output does the spreadsheet generate? 

The spreadsheet provides output in both charts, summary statistics, and tables. General 

output--including a plot of the shipments forecast and tables summarizing potential standards 

impacts--are presented in the Welcome worksheet. Additional charts illustrating a more detailed 

breakdown of shipments and gross sales impacts are located in the Charts worksheet. Meanwhile 

the detailed tables of the different types of shipments and the populations of different types of 

stocks for different clothes washer age categories for each year are presented in the Shipment 

Forecast worksheet. 

How does a user change the model parameters? 

The user can change the individual model parameter values by going to the Inputs 

worksheet and changing the different model parameters highlighted in yellow. Note, that if one 

makes changes in parameters on the input sheet, this likely will affect the historical base case. To 

obtain accurate forecasts, the user may need to recalibrate the fit to historical data by selecting a 

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value for the Coefficient Scaling Parameter in cell E25 in the Inputs worksheet that minimizes the 

root mean square (RMS) deviation with historical data that is presented in the neighboring cell, 

E26. . 

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