# Benefits of Addressing HFCs under

the Montreal Protocol

June 201 3

Stratospheric Protection Division Office of Atmospheric Programs Office of Air and RadiationU.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

2 

## Benefits of Addressing HFC s under the Montreal Protocol June 201 3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

T he United States, Canada, and Mexico have proposed an amendment to the Montreal Protocol to phase down production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and control byproduct emissions. The proposal includes binding reduction targets for a ll countries, and provides access to financial support an d extended phasedown time to developing countries.

HFC use and emissions are rapidly increasing as a result of the phaseout of ozone

- depleting substances (ODS) and growing global demand for air con ditioning. Although safe for the ozone layer, the continued emissions of HFCs

– primarily as alternatives to ODS and also from the continued production of HCFC

- 22

– will have an immediate and significant effect on the Earth’s climate system. Without furthe r controls, it is predicted that HFC emissions could negate the entire climate benefits achieved under the Montreal Protocol

. The pr opos al calls for a gradual phasedown of HFCs to allow for early transition in sectors where we have alternatives, and give s more time and incentive for innovation to deplo y alternatives in other areas. Some niche areas may never transition, which is why the phasedown ends at 15% of allowable use of HFCs relative to an established baseline.

Adoption of the HFC amendment would p roduce environmental benefits of more than 90 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 eq) by 2050

. To provide some context, current global climate emissions from all sources are about 45 gigatons CO 2 eq annually.

The proposed Amendment build s on the su ccess of the Montreal Protocol, rel ies on the strength of its institutions, and realize s climate benefits in both the near and long

- term. Table ES

- 1 displays the projected benefits from the Amendment.

T ABLE ES

- 1: E STIMATED B ENEFITS OF THE A MENDMENT P ROPOS AL , AT V ARIOUS I NTERVALS Cumulative HFC Reductions (MMTCO 2 eq) Party 2016 to 2020 2016 to 2030 2016 to 2040 2016 to 2050 HFC Phasedown

– Consumption Reductions Non

- Article 5 Parties 1,600 9,900 24,100 40,200 Article 5 Parties

- 4,900 19,400 43,200 Worl d 1,600 14,800 43,500 83,400 Byproduct Controls

– Emissions Reductions Non

- Article 5 Parties 300 900 2,000 3,800 Article 5 Parties 700 2,100 4,200 7,500 World 1,000 3,000 6,200 11,300 World Total 2,600 17,800 49,700 94,700U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

3 

## 1. Introduction

This paper p resents analysis of potential benefits from globally reducing consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and reducing byproduct emissions of HFC

- 23

. HFCs are a subset of fluorinated greenhouse gases that are intentionally

- made and used in various application s

. HFCs

are predominantly alternatives to ozone

- depleting substances (ODS) being phased out under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol)

. Recent scientific papers

, including a 2009 paper by Velders et al.

, 1 a 2 011 paper by Gschrey et al.

, 2 and

a 2011 report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

, 3 suggest that HFC use will grow substantially over the next several decades, driven both by increased demand for refrigeration and air

- conditioning (in pa rticular but not exclusively in developing countries

, here in after referred to as Article 5 or A5 countries ), and because these substances were developed and are being used as alternatives to ODS

. HFCs are a small part of the problem today. However, HFC em issions are increasing rapidly

. Left unabated, HFC em issions could rise to nearly 20% of carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. By acting now, we could stem the growth of HFC use and avoid an increase that in three decades could eclipse other climate protection efforts.

UNEP’s recent report, HFCs: A Critical Link in Protecting Climate and the Ozone Layer

, concludes HFCs have the potential to substantially influence climate

. By 2050, the buildup of HFCs is projected to increase radiative forcing by as much as 0. 4 W m ‐ 2 relative to 2000 and this increase would be as much as one

- quarter of the expected increase in radiative forcing from CO 2 buildup since 2000 . T he abundances of HFCs in the atmosphere are also rapidly increasing. One example is HFC

- 134a, the most ab undant HFC, which has increased by about 10% per year from 2006 to 2010

. 4 G lobal HFC emissions (excluding emissions of HFC

- 23) increased 8% per year from 2004 to 2008. By acting now, UNEP concludes we can avoid an increase in high

- GWP HFC emissions that wo uld otherwise offset the climate benefit achieved by the ODS phaseout

. 5

HFC emissions also occur during the production of some fluorocarbons. This paper also presents analysis of potential benefits from globally reducing the byproduct emissions of HFC

- 23 during the production of hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC)

- 22.

1 Velders, G. J. M., Fahey, D. W., Daniel, J. S., McFarland, M., and Andersen, S. O.: The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climat e forcing, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 10949

– 10954, doi:10.1073/pnas.0902817106, 2009. Accessible at: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/06/19/0902817106.full.pdf+ht ml
2 Gschrey, B., Schwarz, W., Elsner, C., Engelhardt, R.: High increase of global F

- gas emissions until 2050, Greenhouse Gas Measurement & Management 1, 85

- 92, 2011.
3 UNEP, 2011. HFCs: A Critical Link in Protecting Climate and the Ozone Layer , United Na tions Environment Programme (UNEP), 36 pp. Accessible at http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/HFC_report.pdf
4 Ibid.
5 Ibid.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

4 

## 2. Proposed Amendment to Phase Down HFC Consumption and Reduce HFC

- 23 Byproduct Emissions

The governments of Mexico, Canada, and the United States of America proposed an a mendment to the Montreal Protoc ol t o phase down the consumption and production of HFCs and reduce HFC

- 23 byproduct emissions

. Key elements of this A mendment proposal include:

Lists 19 HFCs as controlled substances under the Montreal Protocol

. Recognizes that there may not be alt ernatives for all HFC applications at this time and therefore relies on a gradual phase down mechanism with a plateau as opposed to a complete phaseout. Establishes commitments for the developed country (non

- Article 5) and developing country (Article 5) ph asedown of HFC production and consumption while providing additional time for Article 5 countries

. o The baseline for Article 5 countries is calculated as 90% of the average HCFC consumption and production in the years 2008

- 2010 ; HCFCs are used in recognitio n of the HFC data limitations in some countries.

o For non

- Article 5 countries, the baseline is determined from a combination of HFC consumption or production (as relevant) plus 85% of HCFC consumption or production respectively averaged over the years 200 8

– 20 1 0.

o The amendment uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) weighting for HFCs and HCFCs

. Includes provisions to limit HFC

- 23 byproduct emissions resulting from the production of HCFC s and HFCs beginning in 2016. Requires reporting on HFC production

, consump tion

, and byproduct emissions.
Makes reductions in HFC production and consumption and byproduct emissions eligible for funding under the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of the Montreal Protocol (MLF)

. Requires licensing of HFC imports and exports, and bans imports from and exports to

non

- Parties

.



## 3. Proposed Phase d own of HFC Consumption

3.1. Summary of Benefits Analysis

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA’s) benefits analysis of the amendment proposal suggests it would reduce greenhou se gas (GHG) consumption and emissions by 94,700 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent ( MMT CO 2 eq ) through 2050

– of which 83,4 00 MMTCO 2 eq can be attributed to HFC Phasedown and 11,300 MMTCO 2 eq can be attributed to byproduct controls.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

5 U.S. EP A’s analysis assumes the HFC reduc tion obligations in the proposal by Mexico

, Canada and the U nited S tates are met , and that all Parties (developed and developing countries) continue to comply with current HCFC phaseout obligations

. Although both the HFC p roposal and the HCFC controls would be effective simultaneously, individual countr ies would still have the ability to examine their specific conditions and obligations , and determine whether their transitions out of HCFC sectors would include an interim st ep (i.e., HCFC to HFC to low

- GWP)

, occur direct ly (HCFC to low

- GWP) , or continue to use fluorocarbons (HCFC to HFC) for the foreseeable future

. The estimate d cumulative HFC consumption red uctions from the phasedown

are 1,600 MMTCO 2 eq 6 through 2020, and 8 3 ,4 00 MMTCO 2 eq through 2050, assuming annual global compliance with the proposed HFC phasedown requirements

. As explained in Section 4 below, t he estimated cumulative HFC emission reductions from the control of byproduct emissions of HFC

- 23 are 1,000 MMTCO 2 eq through 2020, and 11,300 MMTCO 2 eq through 2050, assuming annual global compliance.



### 3.2. Assumptions for Establishing the Baseline and Projected Consumption

3.2.1. 

### Baseline

Because HFCs have replace d HCFCs in many applications in some countries , the baseline use d by Mexico, Canada and the U nited S tates is set using historic al information while accounting for this transition. The baseline for all Parties uses data from the years 2008 through 20 1 0. Since HCFC controls for Article 5 countries did not start until 201 3, with a freeze in 2013 followed by a 10% reduction step in 2015, only historical HCFC consumption is used to set their baseline. The baseline for Article 5 countries is calculated as 9 0% of the average 200 8

– 20 1 0 HCFC consumption. The baseline for non

- Art icle 5 countries is calculated as the average , for the years 2008

– 2010, of HFC consumption plus 85% of HCFC consumption. The formula s to calculate baselines are shown in Table 1

.

T ABLE 1: B ASELINES

Party Method ( Average 200 8

– 20 10)
Non

- Article 5 Parties 1 00% HFC Consumption + 85% HCFC Consumption

Article 5 Parties 90 % HCFC Consumption

3.2.2. 

### Estimated Consumption of HCFCs and HFCs

In addition to estimating historic al HCFC and HFC consumption, U.S. EPA estimated business

as

- usual (BAU) HFC consumption through 2050 to determine the benefits of the proposed phasedown

. Such estimates are prepared regionally and aggregated below to reflect A rticle 5,

non

- A rticle 5, and world totals.

6 The benefit calculations assume participation from all parties to the Montreal Protocol (i.e., global participation), with consumption at the maximum level allowed under the proposed amendment. Other modeling techniques could calculate different benefits. For instance, a different method could be used to analy ze what reduction options are available, what benefits they would achieve, and, assuming options are undertaken based solely on cost, the reductions that would be achieved.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

6 Estimated Consumption in Other Countries: HCFCs For purposes of calculating baseli nes, ag gregated developed and developing country HCFC

specific consumption data as reported under Article 7 of the Montreal Protocol are used to determine total GWP

- weighted HCFC consumption. Reports from UNEP’s Ozone Secretariat are in ozone depleting pot ential ( ODP )

- tonnes; therefore

, assumptions regarding the mix of HCFCs for Article 5 countries are based on data gathered from HCFC Phaseout Management Plans which contain species specific consumption data. Non

- Article 5 countries’ mix of HCFCs is based on U.S. consumption patterns as reported to the Ozone Secretariat. Once this breakdown is estimated, the ODP

- weighted tonnes are converted into metric tonnes, which are then multiplied by the GWPs in the proposed Amendment, taken from the Intergovernmental P anel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 7 and used to develop total HCFC consumption in terms of MMTCO 2 eq.

Projected Consumption in the United States : HFCs For estimates of U.S. HFC consumption, U.S. EPA used its Vintaging Model, 8 which tr acks and projects past and future use and emissions of chemicals (including HFCs) in products that previously relied on ODS

. Although each type of product is modeled separately at its respective growth rate as determined through information relevant to the product type

, U.S. EPA project ed the U.S. growth of all products at an equal and steady amount beginning in 2030, the date at which ODS consumption in the United States will cease

. For this period 2030

– 2050, U.S. EPA assumed an annual growth rate for each HFC

- using product of 0.8%, which equals the approximate population growth rate expected in the United States at that time

. Previous sensitivity studies using a 1.8% annual growth rate for 2030

– 2050 show an approximate 10% increase in cumulative benefits t hrough 2050

. Projected Consumption in Other Countries: HFCs HFC consumption was estimated on a country

- by

- country basis and then aggregated to Article 5 and non

- A rticle 5 regions

. To develop the global HFC consumption baseline through 2050, U.S. EPA rel ied on the approach used to develop two peer

- reviewed reports released in 2006: Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Non

- CO 2 Greenhouse Gases : 1990

– 2020 ( U.S. EPA Report #430

- R

- 06

- 003) 9 and Global Mitigation of Non

- CO 2 Greenhouse Gases ( U.S. EPA Report #430

- R

- 06

- 005). 10 This process, as outlined in those reports, generally follows these steps:

1. Gather ODS (i.e., chlorofluorocarbon ( CFC ) , HCFC, h alon s , c arbon t e t rachloride, and

m ethyl c hloroform) consumption data as reported under the Montreal Protocol

. Data fro m 1986, 1989 or 1990 are chosen because they pre

- date most of the ODS phaseout. 11
2. Split ODS consumption by ODS type into end

- use sectors (i.e., refrigeration/air conditioning, aerosols, foams, solvents, and sterilization).

7 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. “Climate Change 2007: The Phy sical Science Basis.” Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (Eds.). Cambridge Universi ty Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. September 2007.
8 Vintaging Model, 12/16/2009. (This version is used to maintain consistency with past analyses presented to the Montreal Protocol Parties.)
9 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downl oads/EPAactivities/GlobalAnthroEmissionsReport.pdf
10 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/EPAactivities/GlobalMitigationFullReport.pdf
11 If available, 1989 data is used; where 1989 data is not available, the next closest available year’s data is used

.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

7 3. Use ODS consumption to estimate HF C consumption by multiplying by the ratio of U.S. HFC consumption for the relevant year to U.S. 1990 ODS consumption

. U.S. HFC consumption estimates are generated from U.S. EPA ’s Vintaging Model as described above. 4. Scale HFC consumption by the region’s Gro ss Domestic Product (GDP) growth relative
to U.S

. h istorical and projected GDP . Data were obtained from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (2008). 12
5. Apply several adjustment factors to account for country

- specific differences in transition pathways:

a. Apply the later phaseout of ODS for A rticle 5 countries. b. Account for a proportion of natural refrigerants (such as hydrocarbons) in lieu of HFCs in the baseline for all regions except North America.

c. Account for lower levels of recovery and recycling of re frigerants from small equipment in Article 5 countries and certain eastern European countries

. d. Account for regional transitions in the foams and fire protection sectors by using results from regional Vintaging Model runs that modeled sector

- specific data f rom both the fire protection industry 13 and the foams industry. 14
6. Multiply the consumption (i.e., ton nes ) by an average GWP to derive GWP

- weighted consumption (i.e., MMTCO 2 eq)

. The average GWP, which varies by sector, is determined by examining the estimated baseline HFC consumption in the United States in 2012

. This year is chosen because the U.S. HFC market is assumed to be relatively mature by this date and, under a BAU scenario, the mix of HFCs, and hence the average GWP, is not expected to change signifi cantly thereafter

. For instance, the year 2012 is beyond the recent (January 1, 2010) U.S. and Montreal Protocol HCFC phaseout step.

The procedure outlined above is summarized in Equation 1:

E QUATION 1 : E STIMATING HFC CONSUMPTI ON FROM ODS CONSUMPTION DAT A

12 EIA (2008) International Energy Outlook 2008 . Washington, D.C. Release date: June 2008. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration

- 084(2008). At: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oia f/archive/ieo08/index.html
13 2001 Hughes Associates

- International Market Share Data
14 Data provided by Paul Ashford in personal communications with ICF in 2004. ODS consumption (1989 or as available) X End Use

Percentage X HFC consumption

(U.S., year) X Growth and

other adjustments X Average GWP of

HFC consumption (U.S., 2012) = GWP

- weighted

HFC consumption (year) ODS consumptio n (U.S., 1990)U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

8 P rojected consumption estimates for A rticle 5 and non

- A rticle 5 are shown in Graph 1 below.

G RAPH 1. P ROJECTED HFC C ONSUMPTION 2012 T HROUGH 2050



### 3.3. Reduction Scenario and Results

The reduction schedule used for this analysis appears in Table 2 and Graph 2 below

. Targets were set by considering the need to achieve significant reductions, the likely availability of alternatives, and other obligations under the Montreal Protocol (e.g., HCFC phaseout)

.

T ABLE 2: P ROPOSED HFC R EDU CTION S CHEDULES HFC Consumption Reduction Schedule Non

- Article 5 Parties Article 5 Parties Year Cap (% of Baseline) Year Cap (% of Baseline) 2016 90% 2018 100% 202 2 65 % 202 5 75 % 2029 30% 203 0 40% 2033 15% 2043 15%U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

9 G RAPH 2. P ROPOSED HFC R EDUCTION S CHEDULE S

Applying the reduction schedule and baselines to the projected consumption developed as described above yields HFC consumption reductions as shown in Table 3. Table 3 estimates the cumulative reductions of HFC consumption for four different ti me intervals: 2016 to 2020, 2016 to 2030, 2016 to 2040, and 2016 to 2050.

T ABLE 3 : E STIMATED B ENEFITS OF THE HFC P HASEDOWN , AT V ARIOUS I NTERVALS

Cumulative HFC Phasedown Consumption Reductions (MMTCO 2 eq) Party 2016 to 2020 2016 to 2030 2016 to 2040 2016 to 2050 Non

- Article 5 Parties 1,600 9,900 24,100 40,200 Article 5 Parties

- 4,900 19,400 43,200 World 1,600 14,800 43,500 8 3,4 00



### 3.4. New National, Regional, Global, and Corporate Initiatives on HFCs

O ver the past several years, we have seen a proli feration of projects and activities designed to demonstrate and optimize transitions away from high

- GWP HFCs, and to translate the form of those transitions into government and private

- sector initiatives. These actions can be expected to expand the pool of experience and facilitate a smoother transition away from HFCs in developed and developing countries alike.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

10 

### European Fluorinated Gas Regulation The European Commission is working to strengthe n existing controls on fluorinated gases, with particular focus on HFC s

. Proposed requirements would include a European phasedown and quota system for the supply of HFCs beginning in 2015, along with bans on certain HFC

containing equipment, and a requirement to destroy HFC

- 23 ( a production byproduct ). Existing regulation on labeling, reporting requirements, and training programs have also been expanded to cover HFCs

. 

### Japanese Fluorinated Gas Regulation In April 2013, Japan enacted a law updating their existing fluorocarbon regulation. The objective of the ne w legislation is to reduce HFC emissions through measures that c over the total life cycle of fluorocarbons from manufacture through disposal, as well as equipment using these gases. Among other requirements, the law requires that entities manufacturing an d importing air conditioning and refrigeration units transition to either non

- fluorinated gases or low

- GWP fluorocarbons by certain years.



### Consumer Goods Forum Resolution The Consumer Goods Forum (CGF), a group of over 400 private sector companies from 7 0 countries, has pledged to phase out HFC refrigerants in new point

- of

- sale units and large refrigeration systems starting in 2015. CGF also urges companies to practice effective maintenance to minimize , detect, and promptly repair leaks in existing refrig eration systems

. C GF members include The Coca Cola Company, 3M, Procter & Gamble, and Unilever. Given the reach of many CGF companies, and the impact on national equipment production that similar CFC

- related pledges had, the global community can expect to see very significant changes in the production and use of related equipment in developed and developing countries alike.



### Arctic Council T he May 2013 Kiruna Declaration of the Arctic Council urged the Parties to the Montreal Protocol to “take action as s oon as possible to phase

- down the consumption and production of hydrofluorocarbons,” because HFCs accelerate the melting and thawing of Arctic ice. The Council , a high

- level intergovernmental forum, recognized that reducing short

- lived climate pollutants s uch as HFCs can have positive impacts on both climate and human health, and is currently working on a project to responsibly dispose of HFC

- containing appliances to reduce the emissions of HFCs in Arctic territories.



### Rio +20 At the Rio+20 United Nations C onference on Sustainable Development (June 2012), countries agreed to support a gradual phasedown in the consumption and production of HFCs in the outcome document “The Future We Want

. ” The Montreal Protocol controls consumption and production of intention ally produced substances in the same sectors where HFCs are used, and can effectively mitigate these substances

, thus operationalizing paragraph 222 of the Rio+20 outcome document

.


### The Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short

- Lived Climate Pollutan ts The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) to Reduce Short

- Lived Climate Pollutants is a voluntary initiative launched in 2012 aimed at achieving progress in addressing near

- termU.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

11 contributions to global warming. The CCAC is focusing on HFCs as well as b lack carbon and methane, and has already sponsored several capacity building activities such as workshops and conferences focusing on enabling the use of climate

- friendly alternatives to high

- GWP HFCs and removing barriers to their adoption. The CCAC is al so helping countries inventory their HFC
sectors , and is producing case studies to share information about successful transitions to climate

- friendly alternatives in areas such as commercial refrigeration. Additional capacity building efforts have been pla nned.



### Fulf illing the Vision of Decision X IX/6 In taking the 2007 decision to accelerate the phaseout of HCFCs, the Parties emphasized the need for the Executive Committee to give priority to projects that promote s ubstitutes and alternatives that mini mize other impacts on the environment, including on the climate, taking into account global

- warming potential, energy use and other relevant factors. While the goal to achieve climate benefits has been considered in many different ways, two significant too ls that have been used by the Multilateral Fund are projects designed to demonstrate and optimize alternatives to hig h

- GWP substitutes, and the provision of enhanced funding for those projects that utilize low

- GWP technologies. EPA’s benefits analysis for the accelerated HCFC phaseout produced a range based on the transition to alternatives and improved energy efficiency. If the accelerated HCFC phaseout resulted in transition predominantly to high

- GWP HFCs

, the benefits through 2040 would be 3 gigatons CO 2 eq, while a transition to only low

- GWP alternatives would result in 16 gigatons CO 2 eq avoided. The assumption was that a mix of low

and high

- GWP alternatives would result in 9 gigatons CO 2 eq of emissions avoided. Since 2007, a number of additional new cl imate

- friendly alternatives have been developed and deployed.



### 3.5. Availability of Alternatives for Meeting the Reduction Schedule

When the North American amendment was first proposed in 20 10

, the availability of alternatives (in this case for HFCs) was similar to the availability of CFC alternatives at the 1987 signing of the Montreal Protocol, and similar to when the Parties agreed to phase out HCFCs

. Alternatives are known and in use for some end uses, but not in all cases. This is still true today, b ut o ver the last several years, a number of new alternatives have been made available and significant experience has been gained in optimizing more mature low

- GWP technologies . Accordingly, there are currently fewer end uses for which a menu of proven alt ernatives is not available

. As part of the U.S. ozone layer protection program, the U.S. EPA established the regulatory Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP) program in 1994

. The SNAP program encourages a smooth and timely transition from ODS to a va riety of alternatives across major industrial, commercial, and military sectors

. T he SNAP program’s findings are relevant globally and can be used by countries as they consider adopting safer alternatives. The SNAP program currently provides a broad menu o f alternatives with a range of GWPs

– both HFC and non

- HFC options. As the SNAP menu continues to be updated

, more low

- GWP and no

- GWP alternatives are being added.

SNAP continues to identify substitutes

– for ODS as well as HFCs

– that offer lower overall risks to human health and the environment

. The risk factors considered include:U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

12 O zone D epletion P otential (ODP); G lobal W arming P otential (GWP); F lammability; T oxicity; C ontributions to smog; A quatic and ecosystem effects; and, O ccupational health and s afety.

To date, U.S. EPA has reviewed over 400 substitutes in the refrigeration and air conditioning; fire suppression; foam blowing; solvent cleaning; aerosols; adhesives, coatings, and inks; sterilants; and tobacco expansion sectors

. Across all sectors, since the initiation of the SNAP program in 1994, roughly one

- third of the substitutes reviewed contain HFCs

. For the refrigeration and air conditioning sector, HFCs have dominate d

. However, the SNAP program has issued several rulemakings, and is currentl y considering a number of other such rulemakings and projects

, that have and will continue to provide additional low

- GWP or no

- GWP options including hydrocarbons and low

- GWP hydrofluoroolefins ( HFOs )

. The amendment proposal is GWP

- weighted and does not f ully phase out HFCs. It is anticipated that countries, including the United States, will use a mixture of fluorinated and non

- fluorinated options

. U.S. EPA analyzed certain sector

- specific, technically

- and economically

- viable mitigation options for HFCs. The most promising options to reduce HFC consumption fall into these broad categories: Substituting high

- GWP HFCs with low

- GWP or no

- GWP substances in a variety of applications (where safety and performance requirements can be met); Implementing new tech nologies that use, at installation and/or over the lifetime of the equipment, no or significantly lower amounts of HFCs; and, Various process and handling options

— including the principles of refrigerant recovery and management implemented during the CFC p haseout

— that reduce consumption during the manufacture, use, and disposal of products that contain or use HFCs.

Information on existing and potential options to reduce HFCs can be found in Tables 4 through 6. For some subsectors additional information als o is available on U.S. EPA’s website, as discussed below.

Finally, over the last twelve months, two significant international conferences were held in Bangkok , Thailand and Montreal , Canada to review progress on low

- GWP alternatives, and the results of t hose workshops can be found at: http://www.unep.org/ccac/Actions/HFCAlternativeTechnologyandStandards/tabid/104667/Defau lt.aspx

.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

13 T ABLE 4. HFC S UBSTITUTES BY S ECTOR : A EROSOLS , F OAMS , F IRE S UPPRESSION & S OLVENTS

End

- Use Substitute or Mitigation Strategy Change in CO 2 e Where Adopted* Years Until

Available** Aerosols Non

- Medical Replace HFC

- 134a with HFC

- 152a 91% Available Now Hydrocarbons

~ 100% Available Now
Not

- in

- Kind (pumps, roll

- ons, etc.) 100% Available Now
HFO

- 1234ze(E) 95.2 to 99.6% Available Now

Medical Dry Powder Inhalers 100% Available Now

Injections / Tablets 100% 10+
Fire Suppression Total Flooding Inert Gases 100% Av ailable Now

Water Mist 100% Available Now
Fluorinated Ketone 99.97% Available Now

All Other Low

- GWP Substances ~90 to 100 % Available Now to

< 10 Foam Blowing Various Hydrocarbons ~100% Available Now

XPS CO 2 , HFO

- 1234ze(E)

,

HFO

- 1 336mzz(Z),

- 1233zd(E) 99. 3 to 99.9% <5
Spray H 2 O , CO 2 99.9 to 100% <5 Appliance, Sandwich Panels, Spray Methyl Formate
, HFO

- 1234ze(E)

,

- 1233zd(E) 99. 3 to 100 % Available Now

HFO

- 1336mzz(Z) 99.0% <5 Appliance Foam Capture / Destruction at End

- of

- Life

(EOL) ~90% Available Now

Construction Foam Capture / Destruction at EOL ~90% 10+ Solvents Electronics & Precision Cleaning Aqueous & Semi

- Aqueous 100% Available Now

Hydrofluoroethers (HFEs) 65 to 96% Available Now

- 1233zd(E) 99.6% Availab le now
* Indicates the reduction achieved where applied. For example, replacing HFC

- 134a with HFC

- 152a yields a 91% reduction in consumption (in CO 2 - equivalent terms). However, the substitute or mitigation strategy may not be applicable across the entire end

- use. ** Key to time

- frames Available Now: option applied in significant amounts; regional and product type variations may exist <5 Years: option in the early deployment stage and/or SNAP acceptability determination made or proposed <10 Years: o ption known to be under development and/or logical extension of other known options 10+ Years: option not known to be under development; more research and testing requiredU.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

14 T ABLE 5. HFC S UBSTITUTES BY S ECTOR : A IR C ONDITIONING

End

- Use Substitute or Miti gation Strategy Change in CO 2 e Where Adopted Years Until Available

All End Uses Refrigerant Management: Recovery,

Reclamation and Destruction 10 to 100%* Available Now
Leak Repair 10 to 100%* Available Now

Auto A/C Enhanced HFC

- 134a Systems 50% Availab le Now

HFO

- 1234yf 99. 7 % Available Now CO 2 , HFC

- 152a 91.3 to 99.9% <5
Bus, Train A/C HFO

- 1234yf, CO 2 99.7 to 99.9% <5

Residential & Commercial A/C Microchannel Heat Exchangers 35 to 50% Available Now

HFC

- 32, Low

- GWP Blends 50 to 90% <5 Room A/C Hyd rocarbons, CO 2 , HFO

- 1234yf 99.8 to

~ 100% Available Now to <5 Dehumidifiers

Chillers Ammonia 10 0% Available Now

HFC

- 32, Low

- GWP Blends ~50 % <10 HFO

- 1234ze(E),

- 1233zd(E) 99.5 to 99.6% <5 * Wide range indicates the wide range of practices across di fferent end

- uses and institutional behaviors.

T ABLE 6. HFC S UBSTITUTES BY S ECTOR : R EFRIGERATION

End

- Use Substitute or Mitigation Strategy Change in CO 2 e

Where Adopted Years Until Available

All End Uses Refrigerant Management: Recovery, Reclamation and D estruction 10 to 100%* Available Now

Leak Repair 10 to 100%* Available Now

Supermarkets Low Charge / Low Leak Technologies (e.g., Cascade or Secondary Systems) 90 to 100% Available Now

Low

- GWP Blends 50 to 90% Available Now to <10

Chillers Ammonia 10 0% Available Now HFC

- 32, Low

- GWP Blends

~ 50% <10 HFO

- 1234ze(E),

- 1233zd(E) 99.5 to 99.6% <5 Home Refrigerators/ Freezers Hydrocarbons

~ 100% Available Now

Stand

- Alone Commercial Refrigerators/ Freezers Hydrocarbons, CO 2 99.9 to ~100% Available Now

Be verage Coolers Available Now
Ice Makers <5 Vending Machines CO 2 , Hydrocarbons 99.9 to ~100 % Available Now to < 5 Transport Refrigeration Hydrocarbons, Ammonia, Low

- GWP Blends , CO 2 50 to 100% <5 to <10
Cold Storage Ammonia, CO 2 100% Available Now

* Wide range indicates the wide range of practices across different end

- uses and institutional behaviors.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

15 It is clear that many options exist across all major sectors to reduce

— and in some

, even eliminate

— the use of HFCs. Some of these options are availabl e today, meaning they could be used to meet HCFC phaseout obligations while at the same time contributing to the proposed HFC reductions. Indeed, this was the intent of the Montreal Protocol’s decision XIX/6 wh i c h called on the Parties to promote the selec tion of HCFC alternatives that minimize environmental impacts, in particular impacts on climate, as well as meeting other health, safety and economic considerations. While low

- GWP alternatives already exist for many end

- use applications, additional researc h is already underwa y in companies around the world to find alternatives for other important applications, such as large residential and light

- commercial air conditioning (i.e., unitary air conditioners and multi

- splits).



### 3.6. Transitioning to Low

- GWP Alt ernatives

A detailed analysis of how individual Parties might meet the proposed reduction schedule has not been performed , as related choices would depend on national circumstances and preferences

. However, many types of transitions can be foreseen and ar e shown schematically in Figures 1 through 5 below

. For example, some automobile manufacturers, including General Motors, have already begun to introduce HFO

- 1234yf air conditioning systems in Europe and the United States.

Several options in foam

- blowing , including hydrocarbons and HFOs, also offer an opportunity for non

- A rticle 5 countries to reduce HFC consumption, and for A rticle 5 countries to leap frog HFCs altogether in certain applications

. Many types of hermetic air

- conditioning and refrigeration equipment

— including domestic refrigerators, vending machines, and bottle coolers

— are becoming available worldwide with low

- GWP alternatives in lieu of HCFC

- 22, HFC

- 134a and other high

- GWP chemicals

. A number of key multinational corporations have also pled ged to phase out the use of HFCs as refrigerants in newly manufactured equipment

. Over the past few years, a number of A rticle 5 countries have included a range of lower

- GWP alternatives in their HCFC Phaseout Management Plans (HPMPs). For example, rathe r than using R

- 410A (an HFC blend with a GWP of 2,088), Indonesia is using R

- 32 (an HFC with a GWP of 675) for certain air conditioning applications. China agreed to convert at least 18 manufacturing lines for the production of room air

- conditioning equipm ent , including both window units and mini

- splits , to the hydrocarbon R

- 290

. Many countries included hydrocarbons in their foam sector HPMPs when phasing out of HCFC

- 141b

.

U.S. EPA has develop ed a series of sector

- specific fact sheets to provide more curr ent information on low

- GWP or no

- GWP alternatives. Seven fact sheets are currently available on U.S. EPA’s website at: www.epa.gov/ozone/intpol/mpagreement.html : Commercial Refrigeration; Dome stic Refrigeration; Motor Vehicle Air Conditioning; Unitary Air

- Conditioning; Transport Refrigeration; Construction F oam ; and Non

- Medical A erosols

.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

16 Figures 1 through 5 illustrate some of the transition pathways that have occurred and are emerging as CFCs and HCFCs are being phased out and a combination of HFCs and low

- GWP alternatives are being used

. In some cases, such as motor vehicle air conditioning (MVAC) (Figure 1), industry moved to one option (HFC

- 134a), but is now in a position to introduce

v arious low

- GWP alternatives , one of which, R

- 1234yf, is already in use in some models . In other cases, such as domestic refrigeration and unitary air conditioning (Figures 2 through 4), some companies moved directly from ODS to low

- GWP options while other s first moved to HFCs and are now considering the low

- GWP options.

F IGURE 1. R EFRIGERANT T RANSITION IN THE MVAC E ND

- U SE (P ASSENGER V EHICLES AND L IGHT T RUCKS )

F IGURE 2. R EFRIGERANT T RANSITION IN THE D OMESTIC R EFRIGERATION E ND

- U SE

F IGURE 3. B LOWING A GE NT T RANSITION IN THE D OMESTIC R EFRIGERATION E ND

- U SEU.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

17 F IGURE 4. R EFRIGERA NT T RANSITION IN THE U NITARY A IR C ONDITIONING E ND

- U SE

F IGURE 5. R EFRIGERANT T RANSITION IN THE C OMMERCIAL R EFRIGERATION E ND

- U SE (S TAND

A LONE E QUIPMENT )

These five and 14 other di agrams are available in the seven sector fact sheets listed above.

U.S. EPA performed a preliminary analysis of how HFC consumption could be reduced in the United States. Multiple alternatives were analyzed, including many of those highlighted in Tables 4 through 6 and in the transition pathways in Figures 1 through 5

. As shown in Graph 3, a multi

- sector approach could be used by the United States to reduce HFC consumption from the increasing business

- as

- usual projection to levels necessary to meet the pr oposed amendment. It is assumed here that some HFC use will continue to be used beyond 2033

, as anticipated in the reduction to a 15% level called for in the proposed A mendment. In this example, it is clear that the majority of reductions come from the ref rigeration and air conditioning sectors, but that reductions from the other sectors also play an important part. Existing options could help the United States meet its obligations in the near term ; however, some projected alternatives need to be developed and implemented in the next decade or so

, and potentially other or better reduction alternatives need to be found, for compliance in the long term. 

### R

- 12

R

- 22 R

- 744

R

- 600a

R

- 134a R

- 404A

R

- 290U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

18 G RAPH 3. P OTENTIAL HFC C ONSUMPTION R EDUCTIONS BY S ECTOR FOR THE U NITED S TATES



### 3.7. Case Studies in the Transition to Low

- GWP Alternatives

3.7.1. Transitions at the Regional and National Levels

The following are summaries of transitions certain nations or regions have taken to adopt low

GWP alternatives in specific sectors. These four ex amples show how national circumstances can be taken into account while adopt ing low

- GWP alternatives. Example national and regional level transition summaries are available from the U.S. EPA sector fact sheets.

Unitary Air Conditioning: China ’s Experience China manufactures half of the world’s 50 million mini

- split air conditioner ( AC ) systems annually. It i s the largest manufacturer of AC equipment in the developing world. A significant portion of production is for the export market

— China supplies nearly 85% of the window, wall, a nd mini

- split AC imports to the United States , and is also a major supplier to Europe, Asia and elsewhere . While R

- 22 continues to do minate unitary AC domestically, China manufactures both R

- 22 and R

- 410A units. The R

- 410A units a re in high demand as exports to developed coun tries. China has commercialized room ACs with R

- 290 and

, under their HPMP, agreed to convert a number of their production lines for u nitary AC products to R

- 290 as well as R

- 32.

Construction Foams: Europe’s E xperience The European Union phased out HCFCs in construction foam by the early 2000s and much of the building/construction sector transitioned directly to hydrocarbons ( HCs )

, having used these blowing agents in other products since the early 1990s . Some s mallerU.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

19 companies, as well as those making foams with stringent end

- use flammability standards, used HFCs. Through product development, most of these standards now can be met with HC

- based foams, and HFC use has diminished. Notably, even in the spray foam

a pplicat ion, which has relied primarily on HFCs due to the higher flammability risks (relative t o other foam applications), next

- generation low

- GWP alternatives, such as

- 1233zd(E), have recently started to become available. 15

, 16

Refrigerated Transport Truck s and Trailer s : Norway ’s Experience In 2007, liquid CO 2 refrigera nt

- based cryogenic systems were introduced into Norway’s road transport refrigeration market. Cryogenic truck and trailer systems u se liquid CO 2 for refrigeration to minimize environmental im pact and noise while providing high reliability and lower maintenance.

In 2011, approximately 16% of new refrigerated truck and trailer systems sold in Norway were equipp ed with cryogenic refrigeration systems. One of Norway’s largest food distributors ha s committed to making cryogenic system

- equ ipped vehicles the standard for all of their future purchases. In addition, a major manufacturer of cryogenic systems has partner ed with one of Norway’s largest refrigerant suppliers to provide C O 2 filling stations across the country. Cryogenic systems are c urrently used in other European countries (e.g., Sweden, Denmark, Fi nland, France, the Netherlands, and Germany), and are being pilot ed in the United States. Use of liquid CO 2 refrigerant

- based cryogeni c systems is expected to expand further in the future, particularly in Western Europe.

Commercial Refrigeration Systems : Australia ’s Experience Australia’s major supermarkets have committed to reducing commercial refrigeration emissions through lower GWP refrigeran ts, advanced refrigeration technology, and innovative store designs. The supermarket chains determined that half of their emissions (in CO 2 eq ) are from refrigeration systems. Losses from HFC refrigerants account for a significant portion of these emissions

. S upermarkets are incorporating CO 2 cascade and transcritical refrigeration systems to meet their target reductions in CO 2 eq emissions. Shifting from HFCs to CO 2 can eliminate direct system emissions while potentially also reducing indirect emissions ass o ciated with energy consumption: CO 2 transcritical systems operate most efficiently in cooler climates, where they have been found to perform an estimated 5% to 10% more efficiently than conventional systems using an HFC refrigerant in regions with an avera ge annual temperature below 50 °F (10 ° C)

. 17 However, due to a possible energy penalty, the use of CO 2 transcritical systems in warmer climates is currently considered less viable. That said, significant work is underway that co uld result in greater use of transcritical systems in warmer climates. As of 2011, at least 51 stores have implemented this new technology. 18 Australia has

15 Honeywell. 2013. Regulations. http://www.honeywell

- blowingagents.com/regulation/#european

- union
16 Honeywell. 2011. Honeywell Solstice TM Liquid Blowing Agent. November 2011. http://www.honeywell

blowingagents.com/?document=solstice

- liquid

- blowing

- agent

- product

- overview

- europe&download=1
17 Supermarket News. 2012. “Refrigeration Systems Chillin’ with Carbon Dioxide.” Available at: ht tp://supermarketnews.com/technology/refrigeration

- systems

- chillin

- carbon

- dioxide?page=1 showtext.cfm?t=ptb0810
18 Rees, Brian (McAlpine Hussmann Ltd.). 2011. “Supermarket Refrigeration Trends in the Asia Pacific Region.” September 2011. Available at : http://www.epa.gov/greenchill/downloads/non_us_refrigeration_trends_asia.pdf

.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

20 evaluat ed the benefits of new technologies and provided a ssistance to update supermarket refrigeratio n equipment

.



### 3.7.2. Transitions at the Company and Project Levels

Some e xamples of specific company actions to adopt low

- GWP alternatives are discussed below. These illustrate how individual companies are already moving towards a low

- GWP future, often without a ny regulatory requirements to do so. In addition, some specific case studies of projects are shown below as examples of actions to adopt environmentally sound alternatives.

Hydrocarbon Ice Cream Freezers: Unilever’s Experience In 2000, Unilever

, an intern ational food, refreshment, home and personal care products company that owns about 2 million ice cream freezers throughout the world

, pledged that it would not buy ice cream freezers that were charged with HFC refrigerants after 2005 in countries where leg al and commercially

- viable alternatives were available. 19 After deciding that hydrocarbons were the most viable option, the company had 50 R

- 290 ice cream freezers manufactured for the 2000 Sydney Olympics. Testing of this equipment confirmed that the R

- 290 cabinets would be able to maintain the correct temperatures even under severe use conditions. It was also found that the cases used considerably less energy than comparable freezers using R

- 404 A (an HFC blend) . By mid

- 2008, there were 270,000 such units i n use worldwide ; 20 and by 2009, Unilever alone had placed over 400,000 HC ice

- cream coolers around the world, including South Africa, China, Europe, Brazil and the United States. 21 Unilever has continued to expand in these markets with more than 900,000 HC f

ree zers in use globally by 2012

, 22 and has committed to purchasing a further 850,000 units by 2015. 23

Carbon Dioxide Vending Machines: Sanyo’s Experience Sanyo has produced CO 2 compressors since 2001, originally developed for h eat p ump

w ater h eaters . Using this technology, Sanyo developed the first CO 2 vending machine, which was field tested in February 2004 in Australia. Results from these test s showed that the CO 2 system consumed 17% less energy compared to the comparable HFC

- 134a system during the summer season. Beginning in 2005, CO 2 vending machines began being sold in Japan and have represent ed a significant and growing portion of the Japanese market

— estimated at 116 ,000 units in 2010

. 24

, 25 Coca

- Cola is using CO 2 as the

19 Australian Institute of Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, and Heating (AIRAH). 2007. “Natu ral Refrigerant Case Studies.” Available online at: http://www.environment.gov.au/atmosphere/ozone/publications/pubs/refrigerants

- guide.pdf

. 20 Gerwen, R ene Van, Alan Gerrard, and Fabio Roberti. 2008. “Ice Cream Cabinets Using Hydrocarbon Refrigerant: From Technology Concept to Global Rollout.” Prepared for the 8th IIR Gustav Lorentzen Conference on Natural Working Fluids. Available online at: http://www.unilever.com/images/Ice%20Cream%20Cabinets%20Using%20a%20Hydrocarbon%20 Refrigerant%20

- %20From%20Technology%20Concept%20to%20Global%20Rollout_tcm13

- 262015.pdf

. 21 Greenpeace. 2010. “Cool Technologies: Working without HFCs.” Available online at: http://www.hysave.com/wp

content/uploads/2010/07/COOLING

- WITHOUT

- HFCs

- June

- 2010

- Edition.pdf

. 22 Unilever. 2012. Unilever and Ben & Jerry's Bring Climate

- Friendly Freezer Cabinets to U.S. February 14, 2012. http://www.unileverusa.com/media

center/pressreleases/2012/UnileverandBenandJerrysBringClimateFriendlyFreezerCabinets.aspx
23 Unilever. Undated . Climate

- Friendly Refrigeration. http://www.unilever.com/sustainable

- living/greenhousegases/climate

friendly

- refrigeration/
24 Sanyo Electric Co. 200 8. “CO 2 Vending Machines.” Technical Meeting on HCFC Phase

- Out.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

21 refrigerant in vending machines (li sted as acceptable by the SNAP program in 2012). Several years ago, Coca

- Cola installed 35 units under a test market agreement in the U.S. Capitol buildings as part of the House’s former “Green the Capitol” program. 26 Today

, more than 700,000 of Sanyo’s CO 2 compressor unit s are in use globally in vending machines, water fountains, glass door cases, supermarket show cases and heat pumps

. 27

Transcritical Carbon Dioxide Supermarkets: Sobeys’ Experience Since the first supermarket transcritical CO 2 system insta llation in 2002

— at a Coop store in Lestans, Italy

— around 1,200 such systems have been installed across Europe. 28 The technology is now spreading to North America. Sobeys, Canada’s second largest food retailer , installed its first transcritical CO 2 system in July 2006 and has plans to implement the technology in all of its 1,300 stores in 15 years. In one study of three transcritical stores compared to 22 conventional stores using R

- 507 (an HFC blend), Sobeys found the transcritical system require d 18% to 21% less energy . Also, Sobeys did not experience significant problems with the systems despite operating during the higher

than

- normal temperatures experienced in Quebec in the summers of 2010

, 2011 , and 2012

. 29

L ow - GWP HFC Air Conditioning: Daikin’s Experien ce In 2011, the Indonesia Ministry of Environment and Ministry of Industry; the Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; Daikin and Panasonic, and with support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

, reached an agreement to introduce HFC

- 32 air conditioners in the Indonesian market. Soon after, Fujitsu General, Hitachi

, and Toshiba also joined the new partnership

. 30 Today, R

- 32 AC products are available in Japan 31 and India

, 32 while m anufacturers in other developing countries also plan to
tr ansition to R

- 32 AC systems

— including Algeria, China, and Thailand. 33 Ammonia Supermarket: Supervalu’s Experience Supervalu opened an ammonia

- based refrigeration system in their Albertsons store in Carpinteria, California in 2012 , t he first in the United S tates

. The Carpinteria Albertsons store is a remodeled unit that doubled in size to 40,000 square feet. The store had used HCFC

- 22 in a conventional direct expansion (DX) refrigeration system, which was

25 Greenpeace. 2010. “Cool Technologies: Working without HFCs.” Available online at: h ttp://www.hysave.com/wp

content/uploads/2010/07/COOLING

- WITHOUT

- HFCs

- June

- 2010

- Edition.pdf

. 26 R744.com. 35 CO 2 vending machines installed at the US Capitol. April 29, 2010. Available online at: http://www.r744.com/articles/2010

- 04

- 29

- 35

- co2

- vending

- machines

- installed

- at

- the

- us

- capitol.php
27 R744.com. Growing interest in CO2 products

- view from 2013 China Refrigeration

- Part 2. April 17, 2013. A vailable online
at : http://www.r744.com/news/view/4116
28 ACR News. “UK a leader in transcritical CO2 refrigeration.” Available online at: http://www.acr

news.com/news/news.asp?id=2767&title=UK+a+leader+in+transcritical+CO2+refrigeration

. 29 Supermarket News, 2012. “Refrigeration Systems Chillin’ with Carbon Dioxide.” Available online at: http://supermarketnews.com/technology/refrigeration

- systems

- chillin

- carbon

- dioxide

. 30 JARN News, August 2011 “ Indonesia

- Japan HFC

- 32 Partnership Targets Room Air C onditioner Market” Available online at: http://www.ejarn.com/news.asp?ID=16248
31 Daikin. September 27, 2012. News Release: World's First Commercialization of Air Conditioning Equipment Using Next

Generat ion Refrigerant HFC32. Obtained February 14, 2013 at: http://www.daikin.com/press/2012/120927/index.html

. 32 ACR

- News. 2013. Daikin launches R32 units in India. February 12, 2013. Available online at : http://www.acr

news.com/news/news.asp?id=3200&title=Daikin+launches+R32+units+in+India

. 33 Stanga, Mark (Daikin Industries, Ltd). 2012. “Alter native Refrigerant R

‐ 32 in Air Conditioning.” Presented at Advancing Ozone and Climate Protection Technologies: Next Steps , Bangkok, Thailand, July 22, 2012. Available online at : http://www.unep.org/ccac/Portals/24183/docs/Bangkok%20Technology%20Conference%20

- %20Report%20and%20Cover%20

- %20FINAL.pdf

.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

22 replaced with one that uses ammonia as the primary re frigerant with CO 2 for medium

temperature cases, and a combined cascade and DX system for low

- temperature cases. A month after operating the new system, Supervalu was impressed with its performance. 34 The new system is expected to result in 30% reduction in annual energy consumption, equating to savings of $100,000 per year. 35

Liquid Propane Extruded Polystyrene (XPS) Foam: Egypt’s Experience The United Nations Development Programme ( UNDP ) implemented a project in Egypt to phase out the use of ODS in XPS foa m. Although butane and isobutane were considered for the conversion, ultimately liquid propane gas was used due to its lower cost and because the gas could be obtained easily for this project. Local contractors were hired to complete the conversion. The co nversion resulted in improved quality of the foam; the foam had a softer touch (which consumers preferred) and was less brittle. Its density was also reduced, which improved the market position of the company. The project performed a safety audit that conc luded that the plant was operated safely with use of liquid propane gas as the blowing agent.



## 4. Byproduct Emissions of HFC

- 23

4.1. Proposed Amendment and Current Mitigation Activities

The Mexico, Canada, and U.S. Amendment proposal includes provisions that li mit HFC

- 23 byproduct emissions resulting from the production of HCFC s and HFCs beginning in 2016. HFC

- 23 is a potent greenhouse gas that is 14,800 times more damaging to the Earth’s cli mate system than carbon dioxide. HFC

- 23 is a known byproduct from the p roduction of HCFC

- 22. HCFC

- 22 is used primarily as a refrigerant and as a feedstock for manufacturing synthetic polymers. HCFC

- 22 is an ODS ; non

- feedstock production of it is scheduled for phaseout by 2040 under the Montreal Protocol

. However, given the ex tensive use of HCFC

- 22 as a feedstock, its production is projected to continue indefinitely. While a small amount of HFC

- 23 is used predominantly in plasma

- etching processes in semiconductor manufacturing, as a fire suppres

sant, and either neat or as a bl end component in cryogenic refrigeration, the vast majority of HFC

- 23 produced is not used and is either emitted, captured or destroyed. Recent studies 36 indicate that HFC

- 23 emissions continue to increase in developing countries

, despite global efforts to curb emissions.

Nearly all producers in non

- Article 5 countries have implemented process optimization and/ or thermal destruction to reduce HFC

- 23 emissions. For example, U

. S

. EPA worked in partnership with production facilities located in the United Sta tes to develop and implement technically feasible, cost

- effective processing practices or technologies to reduce HFC

- 23 emissions from

34 Supermarket News June 2012 “ Supervalu Pleased With Ammonia Refrigerant” Available online at: http://supermarketnews.com/technology/supervalu

- pleased

- ammonia

- refrigerant
35 U.S. Department of Energy. Undated. Albertsons Carpinteria Remodel & Expansion. http://www4.eere.energy.gov/challenge/showcase/supervalu/albertsons

- carpinteria

- remodel
36 Montzka et al. : Recent increases in global HFC

- 2 3 emissions

, Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L02808, doi:10.1029/2009GL041195, 2010.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

23 the manufacture of HCFC

- 22. Since 2010, U.S. emissions of HFC

- 23 from the production of HCFC

- 22 must be reported to U

. S

. EPA as part of the Greenhouse Gas Mandatory Reporting Rule ( 40 CFR Part 98 ). U.S. EPA’s report, Global Mitigation of Non

- CO 2 Greenhouse Gase s, 37 analyzes technology options that can be deployed in both Article 5 and non

- Article 5 countries to minimize such emissions

.

S ome developing country HFC

- 23 emissions have been mitigated through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects using destruction technologies, namely thermal oxidation or plasma arc. The CDM allows emission

- reduction projects in developing cou ntries to earn certified emission reduction (CER) credits, each equivalent to one ton of CO 2
. N ot all HCFC

- 22 facilities have been eligible to earn credits under CDM; therefore

, a number of facilities may not have emission reduction technology installed. T oday, the HFC

- 23 credit market appears to be shrinking, since many countries are no longer willing to purchase these credits. In 2011, the European Commission formally adopted a ban on HFC

- 23 credits in the European Union’s Emissions Trading System

. The ba n recently went into effect as of May 2013

. Many questions concerning the state of the HFC

- 23 market remain, including whether there are longer term contracts (at fixed prices in some cases) that may keep this market alive into the future to some extent. A lso, individual countries may have national regimes that include HFC

- 23 offsets. However, m any countries in the European Union as well as Australia and New Zealand have announced that they too will not accept credits generated from HFC

- 23 destruction. It i s unclear how offset credits or emissions reduction credits from HFC

- 23 destruction may be accounted for in the future ; therefore, in order to conservatively estimate benefits, this analysis assumes business as usual within CDM.

Approximately 43 HCFC

- 22 p roduction lines were identified in Article 5 countries

. 38 There are about 23 production lines in Article 5 countries with CDM Projects approved. An estimated 20 production lines are assumed to not currently have emission control technologies installed. Give n that CDM only covers some facilities, this benefits analysis assumes that the provisions in the Amendment proposal apply to all countries and that controls to mitigate (i.e., destroy) HFC

- 23 emissions are installed in all production lines that do not alr eady have an approved project under the CDM to control emissions of HFC

- 23.

The timelines for crediting periods var y for each CDM project; they are either granted a one

- time 10

- year crediting period or a 7

- year renewable crediting period for up to 21 tot al years. Below is a schematic of the time periods. Table 8 illustrates the timeline of the 18 CDM projects 39 and each project’s renewal process , if any . The first crediting year of current CDM projects was 2004; the last crediting year will be 2029.

37 Global Mitigation of Non

- CO 2 Greenhouse Gases (USEPA 430

- R

- 06

- 005, June 2006)

. Available at: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/EPAactivities/GlobalMitigationFullReport.pdf
38 “Summary of Information Publicly Available on Relative Elements of the Operation of Clean Development Mechanisms and the Amounts of HCF C

- 22 Production Available for Credits” by Executive Committee of the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of the Montréal Protocol, Fifty

- seventh Meeting, Montreal, 30 March

– 3 April 2009. Available at: http://www.multilateralfund.org/sites/57th/Document%20Library2/1/5762.pdf and “Preliminary Data on the HCFC Production Sector in China” Excel worksheet (HCFC PRODUCTION SECTOR PLANT.xls) accessible online at: https://www.ungm.org/Notices/Item.aspx?Id=14001
39 Note that two CDM projects in China apply to the same facility. Hence, these 18 projects represent 17 facilities.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

24 T A BLE 8: T IMELINE FOR CDM P ROJECTS C REDITING P ERIODSU.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

25 

### 4.2. Benefits from Byproduct Controls

Benefits were calculated with UNEP reported and projected data for HCFC consumption

, feedstock production estimates ( Montzka , 2009)

, publicly available data on individu al CDM Projects (accessible at: http://cdm.unfccc.int/ ), and data from the MLF Secretariat

. 40 Using the data from the CDM, the annual amount of CERs for each project , which is based on IPCC Second Assessment Report ( SAR ) GWP values, is transformed to reflect the updated GWP s in AR4 and the A mendment proposal . As CDM projects go offline, the benefits are included in the cumulative total. Benefits from production lines not covered under CDM, from both Article 5 and non

- A rti cle 5 countries, are assumed to accrue beginning in 2016.

A number of assumptions were made to estimate the benefits: HCFC

- 22 production for feedstock is projected to increase at a rate of 5% per year through 2050 ( based on Montzka, 2009) ; HCFC

22 p roduct ion for consumption (i.e., non

- feedstock uses) is derived from HCFC consumption data for 2009 through 2012 41 and adjusted to reflect the HCFC phasedown ; and, t he baseline (i.e., without the amendment proposal) fraction of HFC

- 23 produced per tonne of HCFC

- 2 2 is estimated to be 3% in A rticle 5 countries based on CDM methodologies and 1% in non

- A5 countries . Once the total HCFC

- 22 production is estimated from adding together the adjusted consumption plus projected feedstock, the total is multiplied by the esti mated fraction of HFC

- 23 produced per tonne of HCFC

- 22. That result is then multiplied by the GWP of HFC

- 23 and finally divided by 1,000,000 to yield the benefits for that year in MMTCO 2 eq. Results are shown in Table 9 below.

T ABLE 9: E STIMATED B ENEFITS O F HFC

- 23 B YPRODUCT E MISSION C ONTROLS

Cumulative HFC

- 23 Byproduct Emission Reductions (MMTCO 2 eq) Party 2016 to 2020 2016 to 2030 2016 to 2040 2016 to 2050 Non

- Article 5 Parties 300 900 2,000 3,800 Article 5 Parties 700 2,100 4,200 7,500 World Byproduct Controls 1,000 3,000 6,200 11,300

In April 2013, the Executive Committee of the MLF reached an agreement with China to phase out all HCFC production for consumption by 2030. China is by far the largest Article 5 producer of HCFC

- 22 and has 34 out of the 43 identified production lines. While the agreement will phase out the HCFC

- 22 production for consumption, this analysis already accounted for the HCFC

- 22 phaseout as well as the growth in HCFC

- 22 for feedstock use; thus, no adjustment is necessary.

Th e amendment proposed by Canada, Mexico and the United States includes provisions to reduce emissions of HFC

- 23 from HCFC

- 22 production; however, t he obligation s do not apply to emissions from production lines that have an approved project under CDM to cont rol HFC

- 23

40 “Summary of Information Publi cly Available on Relative Elements of the Operation of Clean Development Mechanisms and the Amounts of HCFC

- 22 Production Available for Credits” by Executive Committee of the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of the Montréal Protocol, Fifty

- seventh Meeting, Montreal, 30 March

– 3 April 2009. Available at: http://www.multilateralfund.org/sites/57th/Document%20Library2/1/5762.pdf
41 “Updated Model Rolling Three

- Ye ar Phase

- Out Plan: 2011

- 2013 (Decision 59/5), Table 7.” Document 62/7 by Executive Committee of the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of the Montréal Protocol, Sixty

- second Meeting, Montreal, 29 November

– 3 December 2010. Available at: http://www.multilateralfund.org/62/English%20Document/1/6207.pdfU.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

26 emissions so long as those emissions are covered by and continue to generate emissions reduction credits under a CDM p roject. If a facility does not have a CDM project because either it is not eligible or the project has expired, then the obliga tions would apply and funding from the MLF could be available.



## 5. Summary

The Montreal Protocol has been an unparalleled environmental success story. It is the only international agreement to achieve universal ratification. It has completed an enormous tas k in the phaseout of CFCs and halons

— chemicals that were pervasive in multiple industries. It established a schedule to phase out the remaining important ODS (namely, HCFCs) by 2040

. Under the Montreal Protocol, A rticle 5 and non

- A rticle 5 countries t ogeth er have not only set the ozone layer on a path to recovery by mid

- century but ha ve reduced greenhouse gases by over 11
g igatons CO 2 eq per year , providing an approximate 10

- year delay in the onset of the effects of climate change. 42

This legacy is now at ri sk . Although safe for the ozone layer, the continued emissions of HFCs

— primarily as alternatives to ODS but also from the continued production of HCFC

- 22

— will have an immediate and significant effect on the Earth’s climate system. Without further controls, it is predicted that HFC emissions could negate the entire climate benefits achieved under the Montreal Protocol. HFCs are rapidly increasing in the atmosphere. HFC use is forecast to grow, mostly due to increased demand for refrigeration and air conditio ning, particularly in A rticle 5 countries. There is a clear connection between the Montreal Protocol’s CFC and HCFC phaseout and the increased use of HFCs

. However, i t is possible to maintain the climate benefits achieved by the Montreal Protocol by using climate

- friendly alternatives and addressing HFC consumption

. Recognizing the concerns with continued HFC consumption and emission s, the actions taken to date to address them, the need for continued HFC use in the near future for certain applications

, and the need for better alternatives, Canada, Mexico and the United States have proposed an amendment to phase down HFC consumption and to reduce byproduct emissions of HFC

- 23, the HFC with the highest GWP. The proposed Amendment would build on the success of the Montreal Protocol , rely on the strength of its institutions

, and realize climate benefits in both the near and long

- term. Table 10 displays the projected benefits from the Amendment.

42 Velders, G. J. M., Andersen, S. O., Daniel, J. S., Fahey, D. W., and McFarland, M.: The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 4815

- 4819, 2007. Accessible at: http://www.pnas.org/content/104/12/4814.full.pdf+htmlU.S. Environmental Protection Agency June 2013

27 T ABLE 10: E STIMATED B ENEFITS OF THE A MENDMENT P ROPOSAL , AT V ARIOUS I NTERVALS Cumulative HFC Reductions (MMTCO 2 eq) Party 2016 to 2020 2016 to 2030 2016 to 2040 2016 to 2050 HFC Phasedown

– Consumption Reductions Non

- Article 5 Parties 1,600 9,900 24,100 40,200 Article 5 Parties 0 4,900 19,400 43,200 World 1,600 14,800 43,500 83,400 Byproduct Controls

– Emissions Reductions Non

- Article 5 Parties 300 900 2,000 3,800 Article 5 Parties 700 2,100 4,200 7,500 World 1,000 3,000 6,200 11,300 World Total 2,600 17,800 49,700 94,700

T aken together, the suite of known altern ative chemicals, new technologies, and better process and handling practices can significantly reduce HFC consumption and emissions in both the near and long term , while simultaneously completing the HCFC phaseout

. Since the Amendment was first introduced, a number of actions by countries and multinational corporations have built momentum to address HFC use and emissions. Although there is much work to do to fully implement these alternatives , technologies and practices, the industries currently using HCFCs and HFCs have proven through the ODS phaseout that they can move quickly to protect the environment.