CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 14­1

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS............................................................................................................ 14­1

14.3 METHOD ...................................................................................................................... 14­2

14.4 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 14­3

REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................ 14­21

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.4.1 AEO2008 Reference Case.................................................................................. 14­5

Table 14.4.2 AEO2008 High Economic Growth Case............................................................ 14­6

Table 14.4.3 AEO2008 Low Economic Growth Case ............................................................ 14­6

Table 14.4.4 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (TSL1)........ 14­7

Table 14.4.5 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift Product Substitution Scenario (TSL2)......... 14­7

Table 14.4.6 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift Product Substitution Scenario (TSL3)......... 14­8

Table 14.4.7 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift Product Substitution Scenario (TSL4)......... 14­8

Table 14.4.8 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift Product Substitution Scenario (TSL5)......... 14­9

Table 14.4.9 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario

(TSL1)................................................................................................................ 14­9

Table 14.4.10 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario

(TSL2).............................................................................................................. 14­10

Table 14.4.11 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario

(TSL3).............................................................................................................. 14­10

Table 14.4.12 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario

(TSL4).............................................................................................................. 14­11

Table 14.4.13 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario

(TSL5).............................................................................................................. 14­11

Table 14.4.14 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario

(TSL1).............................................................................................................. 14­12

Table 14.4.15 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario

(TSL2).............................................................................................................. 14­12

Table 14.4.16 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario

(TSL3).............................................................................................................. 14­13

Table 14.4.17 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario

(TSL4).............................................................................................................. 14­13

Table 14.4.18 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario

(TSL5).............................................................................................................. 14­14

Table 14.4.19 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment Based Lighting

Expertise Scenario (TSL1)............................................................................... 14­14

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 14.4.20 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment Based Lighting

Expertise Scenario (TSL2)............................................................................... 14­15

Table 14.4.21 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment Based Lighting

Expertise Scenario (TSL3)............................................................................... 14­15

Table 14.4.22 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment Based Lighting

Expertise Scenario (TSL4)............................................................................... 14­16

Table 14.4.23 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment Based Lighting

Expertise Scenario (TSL5)............................................................................... 14­16

Table 14.4.24 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (TSL4)

High Economic Growth Case .......................................................................... 14­17

Table 14.4.25 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario

(TSL4) High Economic Growth Case.............................................................. 14­17

Table 14.4.26 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (TSL3)

High Economic Growth Case .......................................................................... 14­18

Table 14.4.27 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario

(TSL3) High Economic Growth Case.............................................................. 14­18

Table 14.4.28 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (TSL4)

Low Economic Growth Case........................................................................... 14­19

Table 14.4.29 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario

(TSL4) Low Economic Growth Case .............................................................. 14­19

Table 14.4.30 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (TSL3)

Low Economic Growth Case........................................................................... 14­20

Table 14.4.31 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario

(TSL3) Low Economic Growth Case .............................................................. 14­20

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

The utility impact analysis estimates the change in the forecasted power generation

capacity of the Nation which would be expected to result from the adoption of amended efficacy

standards. DOE used a version of the Energy Information Agency’s (EIA’s) National Energy

Modeling System (NEMS) for this utility impact analysis.a NEMS which is available in the

public domain is a large, multi­sectoral, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. EIA

uses NEMS to produce its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), a widely recognized baseline energy

forecast for the United States. The version of NEMS used for appliance standards analysis is

b called NEMS­BT and is primarily based on the AEO2008 with minor modifications. The

NEMS­BT offers a sophisticated picture of the effect of standards, since it accounts for the

interactions between the various energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole.

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by

fuel type, that result from the adoption of amended efficacy standards at each trial standard level

(TSL), as well as changes in residential, commercial and industrial sector electricity

consumption.

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS

NEMS­BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in

the analysis of efficacy standards. NEMS­BT uses a set of assumptions that are well known and

fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the

comprehensiveness of NEMS­BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy

supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of the

effects of efficacy standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS­BT can be used to estimate

marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of efficacy standards than

considering only average effects.

The utility impact analysis uses the assumptions of the AEO2008 and treats the effects on

electricity of efficacy improvements due to the deployment of amended general service

fluorescent lamp (GSFL) and incandescent reflector lamp (IRL) efficacy standards as variations

in policy. The effect of the policy is calculated as the difference between the AEO2008

Reference Case and each proposed standard case. Because the implementation of standards

a For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA0581(2003), March, 2003. (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/ftproot/forecasting/05812003.pdf)

b The EIA approves the use of the name NEMS to describe only an AEO version of the model without any

modification to code or data. Because the present analysis entails some minor code modifications and runs the

model under various policy scenarios that deviate from AEO assumptions, the name NEMS­BT refers to the model

as used here. (“BT” stands for DOE’s Building Technologies Program.)

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
reduces total electricity demand by a relatively small amount (in many cases less than one

percent) in any given year, its effect cannot be detected directly in the simulations. Therefore,

DOE modeled larger reductions in demand and interpolated results for the TSLs. DOE assumed

the effects to be linear within the range of interpolation. This method is discussed in more detail

below and in Appendix 14A.

DOE also considered the High and Low Economic Growth Cases of AEO2008. The

AEO2008 Reference Case corresponds to medium growth. The High Economic Growth Case

assumes higher projected growth rates for population, labor force, and labor productivity,

resulting in lower predicted inflation and interest rates, and higher aggregate economic growth,

relative to the reference case. The opposite is true for the Low Economic Growth Case. The

High Growth Case reflects an average annual growth in gross domestic product of 3.4 percent

per year compared with 3.0 percent per year in the Reference Case, and 2.2 percent per year in

the Low Growth Case. Different economic growth scenarios affect the rate of growth of

electricity demand. DOE ran the High and Low Economic Growth Cases only for the proposed

standards.

14.3 METHOD

NEMS­BT models certain policy scenarios, such as the effect of reduced electricity

consumption, for each trial standard level. The analysis output provides a forecast for the needed

power generation capacity and generation by fuel at each TSL. The estimated net benefit of the

standard is the difference between the forecasted results by NEMS­BT and the AEO2008

Reference Case.

DOE used the national energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (Chapter

11) for each TSL as input to NEMS­BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be

required for NEMS­BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is generally

larger than the highest efficacy standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results

corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher use reduction levels in NEMSBT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the

results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard. A detailed

description of the interpolation method is given in Appendix 14A.

Policy runs are executed by reducing electricity consumption in the NEMS­BT

Residential, Commercial and Industrial (when appropriate) Demand Modules. Energy use

reductions are applied to the lighting end use in each sector.

Although the amended GSFL and IRL efficacy standards lead to greater electricity

demand reductions than most of the other previous standards, the price impacts based on NEMSBT runs performed for this rulemaking are still projected to be quite small. The case with the

greatest projected energy savings (TSL 5 for GSFL under the Existing Technology, High

Lighting Expertise, Shift Scenario) projects electricity generation reductions of at most 1.1

percent in any year. The maximum decrease in average electricity prices is 0.8 percent in a year,

and the average over the period 2012 to 2030 is only 0.3 percent.

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Further, the rapid turnover of lamp stock leads to energy savings that rise quickly and

then plateau over time. This pattern of savings yields a relatively complex intertemporal pattern

of utility investment and prices. It is possible that price reductions may occur in some years,

while prices rise in other years, as capital expenditures may be deferred and then be required

later. The end result is that the inter­temporal nature of capital stock turnover in the power

industry means that price impacts do not smoothly rise over time.

In addition, the distribution and pricing of electricity is regulated everywhere, wherein

institutional structure varies and the pricing of upstream components (i.e., generation and

transmission) are frequently complicated by different price setting methods used across the

country. The power sector entities impacted by the price changes due to the application of the

amended efficacy standards are a heterogeneous group. They include regulated distribution and

transmission companies, regulated generation or vertically integrated power companies, and

unregulated generation companies.

While DOE considered reporting the electricity price impacts as a part of the utility

impact analysis, due to the significant uncertainty of projecting prices, the complexity of the

power industry (including the variety of utility regulation in the U.S.), and the relatively small

impact of amended efficacy standards on prices it was determined that these considerations

should not be weighed heavily in the decision about the standard level. These timing

complexities along with geographic and regulatory diversity make it virtually impossible to

unwind societal benefits from these price impacts.

Although the current time horizon of NEMS­BT is 2030, other parts of the analyses for

GSFL and IRL amended efficacy standards extend to the year 2042. It is not feasible to extend

the forecast period of NEMS­BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an

approved method for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem

reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable

because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by

extrapolations of those outputs could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal

emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is

beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty.

Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simple replications of year 2030 results. While

these may seem unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be

consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the

regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the

extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date­certain introduction are

included in NEMS­BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are

shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual NEMS­BT results.

14.4 RESULTS

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS­BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity,

and residential, commercial and industrial­sector consumption. Results are for all TSLs

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
presented in five­year increments to year 2030 for the Reference Case. Only the results for the

proposed TSL for IRL and GSFL are reported for the High and Low Growth cases. Again,

beyond the year 2030, an extrapolation to 2042 for each proposed TSL is represented by a simple

replication of the year 2030 results.

The results from the AEO2008 Reference Case are shown in Table 14.4.1 while results

for the AEO2008 High and Low Economic Growth Cases are shown in Table 14.4.2 and 14.4.3,

respectively.

A separate set of TSLs are modeled for each lamp technology. A total of five TSLs are

modeled for each of the two technologies, IRL and GSFL. In addition, for each technology, the

two scenarios that bound the NIA results are evaluated:

• For IRL, DOE evaluated Existing Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution scenario and the

Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution scenario as the high and low range

estimates, respectively.

• For GSFL, DOE evaluated the Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise

scenario and the Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment Based, Lighting

Expertise scenario as the high and low range estimates respectively.

For additional discussion of the formulation of these scenarios, see TSD Chapter 10

The NEMS­BT results for IRL are presented in Tables 14.4.4 through 14.4.13. These

tables present the changes in installed capacity and generation by fuel type and bound the utility

impacts for IRL. A parallel set of tables for the GSFL are presented in Tables 14.4.14 to 14.4.23.

Each table also includes the extrapolation of the results to 2042.

Amended IRL energy conservations result in decreases in electricity consumption for all

TSLs compared to the AEO2008 Reference Case under both scenarios. Power generation

capacity is either unaffected or reduced by up to 500 Mw.

Amended GSFL efficacy standards result in decreases to electricity consumption for all TSLs

compared to the AEO2008 Reference Case under both scenarios as well. Power generation

capacity is more affected for GSFL efficacy standards due to the larger decreases in electricity

consumption associated with their adoption. Power generation capacity is reduced between 600

MW (for TSL 1 under the GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment Based

Lighting Expertise scenario) to 5.4 GW (for TSL 5 under the Existing Technology, Shift, High

Lighting Expertise scenario).

The results from the AEO2008 High Economic Growth Reference Case and AEO2008

Low Economic Growth Reference Case for the proposed TSL for GSFL and IRL are shown in

Tables 14.4.24 through 14.4.31. Tables 14.4.24 through 14.4.27 present the results from the

High Economic Growth Case for the GSFL and IRL for the same scenarios presented for the

AEO2008 Reference Case. Tables 14.4.28 through 14.4.31 present the results from the Low

Economic Growth Case for GSFL and IRL for the same scenarios presented for the AEO2008

Reference Case.

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 14.4.1 AEO2008 Reference Case

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results

AEO 2008 Reference Data 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Sales

Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,521 1,661 1,802 1,939

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,471 1,540 1,620 1,722

Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,058 1,052 1,041 1,031

Generation

Coal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,151 2,324 2,532 2,755

Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57

Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 808 716 644 615

Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 912 931

Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 523 543 558

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,286 4,484 4,687 4,916

Capacity

Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503

Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210

Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165

Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 117

Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,023 1,084 1,149

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 14.4.2 AEO2008 High Economic Growth Case

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results

AEO2008 High Economic Growth Case Data 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Sales

Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,393 1,547 1,714 1,883 2,055

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,455 1,495 1,587 1,691 1,824

Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,047 1,114 1,138 1,170 1,202

Generation

Coal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,204 2,510 2,760 3,040

Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 55 57 59

Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 853 860 691 626 579

Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 888 970 1,056

Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 475 530 563 581

Total Generation (TWh) 4,158 4,396 4,674 4,976 5,315

Capacity

Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 431 469 509 554

Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 193 199 213 216

Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 132 134 145 172

Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 114 123 133

Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 147 154 159

Total Capacity (GW) 996 997 1,061 1,144 1,234

Table 14.4.3 AEO2008 Low Economic Growth Case

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results

AEO2008 Low Economic Growth Case Data 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Sales

Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,375 1,492 1,608 1,723 1,829

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,444 1,448 1,495 1,550 1,619

Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,008 1,003 973 920 862

Generation

Coal Generation (TWh) 2,035 2,119 2,206 2,327 2,498

Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 50 51 53 54

Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 790 736 685 646 608

Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 854 860 837

Renewables Generation (TWh) 417 463 507 523 532

Total Generation (TWh) 4,088 4,174 4,303 4,409 4,528

Capacity

Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 434 410 420 437 461

Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 194 199 203

Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 125 129 139 150

Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 109 109 104

Renewables Capacity (GW) 132 136 141 144 146

Total Capacity (GW) 994 966 992 1,028 1,065

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 14.4.4 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (TSL1)

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,521 1,661 1,802 1,939 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,470 1,539 1,619 1,720 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (0.8) (0.9) (1.0Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,058 1,052 1,041 1,031 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,151 2,324 2,531 2,755 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.2) (0.6) (0.6Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 807 715 644 614 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.9) (0.4) (0.2Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 912 931 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (0.1) (0.4Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 523 543 558 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,285 4,483 4,685 4,915 Total Generation (TWh) (0.0) (1.1) (1.1) (1.3) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,023 1,084 1,149 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) 

Table 14.4.5 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift Product Substitution Scenario (TSL2)

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,520 1,660 1,801 1,938 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.2) (1.3) (1.4Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,470 1,538 1,618 1,719 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.5) (1.7) (2.0Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,058 1,052 1,041 1,031 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,151 2,323 2,530 2,755 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.5) (1.6) (1.8Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 806 715 643 614 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.0 (2.2) (1.1) (0.4Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 911 930 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - 0.0 (0.2) (1.0Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 522 543 558 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,283 4,481 4,683 4,913 Total Generation (TWh) (0.0) (2.8) (3.1) (3.4) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.2) (0.2Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.1Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,023 1,084 1,148 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) 

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 14.4.6 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift Product Substitution Scenario (TSL3)

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,519 1,658 1,799 1,937 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (2.3) (2.5) (2.6Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,469 1,537 1,617 1,718 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (2.6) (3.0) (3.5Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,058 1,052 1,041 1,031 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,150 2,321 2,529 2,754 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.9) (2.6) (3.3Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 804 714 643 613 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.1 (4.0) (2.3) (0.9Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 911 929 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (0.3) (1.5Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 522 543 558 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,281 4,478 4,680 4,910 Total Generation (TWh) (0.0) (5.1) (5.6) (6.2) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.0Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.2Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,022 1,084 1,148 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) 

Table 14.4.7 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift Product Substitution Scenario (TSL4)

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,518 1,658 1,799 1,936 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (3.0) (3.1) (3.3Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,468 1,536 1,615 1,717 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (3.6) (4.1) (4.6Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,058 1,052 1,041 1,031 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,150 2,321 2,528 2,753 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (1.3) (3.3) (4.1Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 803 713 643 612 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.1 (5.2) (3.1) (1.3Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 910 928 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (0.4) (2.1Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 522 543 558 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.1) (0.2) (0.5) (0.5

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,279 4,477 4,679 4,908 Total Generation (TWh) (0.0) (6.7) (7.3) (8.1) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.0Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.3Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,022 1,084 1,148 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.4) (0.5) 

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 14.4.8 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift Product Substitution Scenario (TSL5)

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,518 1,657 1,798 1,936 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (3.4) (3.5) (3.7Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,468 1,536 1,615 1,716 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (3.5) (4.1) (4.7Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,058 1,052 1,041 1,032 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,150 2,320 2,528 2,754 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (1.3) (3.7) (4.2Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 803 713 643 612 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.1 (5.4) (3.1) (1.3Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 910 928 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (0.4) (2.3Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 522 543 558 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.1) (0.2) (0.4) (0.5

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,279 4,476 4,678 4,908 Total Generation (TWh) (0.0) (7.0) (7.7) (8.5) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.0Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.1) (0.3Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,022 1,084 1,148 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.4) (0.5) 

Table 14.4.9 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (TS

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,521 1,661 1,802 1,939 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.1) 0.0 0.0 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,471 1,539 1,619 1,721 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.6) (0.7) (0.7Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,058 1,052 1,041 1,031 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,151 2,324 2,532 2,755 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 808 716 644 614 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.6) (0.3) (0.1Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 912 931 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (0.0) (0.2Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 523 543 558 Renewables Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,285 4,483 4,686 4,916 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 (0.0) (0.0Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - 0.0 (0.0) (0.0Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,023 1,084 1,149 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 

14­9

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 14.4.10 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (TS

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,521 1,661 1,802 1,939 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.2) 0.1 0.0 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,470 1,538 1,618 1,720 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.4) (1.5) (1.6Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,058 1,052 1,041 1,031 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,151 2,323 2,531 2,755 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.3) (0.6) (0.8Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 807 715 644 614 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.0 (1.4) (0.7) (0.2Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 912 931 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (0.0) (0.5Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 523 543 558 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,284 4,483 4,685 4,915 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (1.7) (1.5) (1.6) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.0) (0.0Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.1Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,023 1,084 1,149 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Table 14.4.11 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (TS

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,521 1,661 1,802 1,939 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.5) 0.1 0.0 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,469 1,537 1,617 1,718 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (2.6) (2.9) (3.0Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,058 1,052 1,041 1,031 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,151 2,323 2,530 2,755 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.5) (1.2) (1.5Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 806 715 643 614 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.0 (2.5) (1.4) (0.4Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 911 930 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - 0.0 (0.1) (0.9Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 522 543 558 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,283 4,481 4,684 4,913 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (3.1) (2.9) (3.1) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - 0.0 (0.0) (0.0Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.1Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,023 1,084 1,149 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 

14­10

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 14.4.12 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (TS

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,521 1,661 1,802 1,939 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.7) 0.1 0.0 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,468 1,536 1,616 1,717 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (3.2) (3.7) (3.8Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,058 1,052 1,041 1,031 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,150 2,323 2,530 2,754 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.6) (1.6) (1.9Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 805 714 643 614 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.0 (3.1) (1.7) (0.5Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 911 930 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (0.1) (1.0Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 522 543 558 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,282 4,480 4,683 4,912 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (3.9) (3.6) (3.7) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) 0.0 (0.1) (0.1Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - 0.0 (0.0) (0.0Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.1Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,023 1,084 1,149 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 

Table 14.4.13 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (TS

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,520 1,661 1,802 1,939 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (0.8) 0.1 (0.0Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,467 1,536 1,616 1,717 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (3.7) (4.3) (4.5Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,058 1,052 1,041 1,031 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,150 2,322 2,529 2,753 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.8) (1.8) (2.9Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 805 714 643 613 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.0 (3.7) (2.0) (0.4Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 911 930 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (0.1) (0.9Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 522 543 558 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.2) (0.3

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,282 4,480 4,682 4,911 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (4.6) (4.3) (4.5) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.3Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.1Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,023 1,084 1,149 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 

14­11

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 14.4.14 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (TSL1

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,517 1,656 1,796 1,932 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (4.6) (5.2) (5.9) Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,469 1,536 1,614 1,715 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.7) (4.1) (6.2) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,056 1,049 1,037 1,027 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.9) (2.6) (3.2) Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,149 2,317 2,523 2,749 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (1.8) (7.6) (8.8) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 802 713 642 610 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.1 (6.6) (3.3) (2.1) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 867 908 925 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (0.7) (4.1) Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 522 542 557 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.2) (0.8) (0.9) 

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,278 4,472 4,671 4,899 Total Generation (TWh) (0.0) (8.6) (12.5) (16.1) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 469 502 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.8) (1.0) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 132 144 166 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 115 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.1) (0.6) Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 149 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) 

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,022 1,083 1,147 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.2) (0.8) (1.2) 

Table 14.4.15 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (TSL2

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,516 1,655 1,796 1,932 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (5.7) (5.7) (6.2) Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,470 1,536 1,614 1,715 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.6) (4.0) (6.2) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,055 1,049 1,037 1,027 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (2.3) (2.8) (3.3) Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,149 2,317 2,523 2,750 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.1) (2.0) (7.2) (8.5) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 801 712 641 610 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.1 (7.7) (4.2) (2.3) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 867 908 925 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - 0.0 (0.7) (4.2) Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 522 542 557 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.1) (0.3) (1.0) (1.1) 

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,276 4,471 4,670 4,898 Total Generation (TWh) (0.1) (10.1) (13.2) (16.4) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 469 502 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.3) (0.9) (1.0) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 132 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.0) 0.3 0.6 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 115 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.1) (0.6) Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 149 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) 

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,022 1,083 1,147 Total Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.4) (1.0) (1.4) 

14­12

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 14.4.16 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (TSL3

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,508 1,645 1,783 1,920 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (13.2) (15.7) (18.6) Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,469 1,535 1,613 1,715 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.8) (4.4) (6.8) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,056 1,049 1,038 1,028 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (2.1) (2.5) (3.0) Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,147 2,311 2,516 2,747 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.1) (4.4) (12.7) (15.7) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 56 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 795 708 640 607 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.2 (12.9) (7.9) (3.7) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 867 904 920 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (1.3) (8.2) Renewables Generation (TWh) 424 468 521 541 556 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.2) (0.4) (1.7) (1.9) 

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,268 4,460 4,657 4,886 Total Generation (TWh) (0.1) (18.0) (23.9) (29.8) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 417 437 468 502 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.6) (1.7) (2.2) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.1) (0.3) (0.2) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.1) 0.3 0.5 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 115 115 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.2) (1.1) Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 149 153 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.2) (0.4) (0.4) 

Total Capacity (GW) 996 979 1,020 1,081 1,145 Total Capacity (GW) (0.1) (1.0) (2.3) (3.4) 

Table 14.4.17 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (TSL4

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,489 1,628 1,772 1,911 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (32.0) (32.9) (30.5) Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,470 1,535 1,613 1,714 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.5) (4.9) (7.5) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,054 1,048 1,037 1,028 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (4.0) (3.4) (3.4) Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,142 2,304 2,510 2,750 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.1) (9.3) (20.3) (21.5) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 50 53 55 56 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.1) (0.4) (0.5) (0.6) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 821 779 699 635 600 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.7 (29.0) (16.7) (8.6) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 866 903 914 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (2.4) (9.7) Renewables Generation (TWh) 424 468 519 541 556 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.7) (0.9) (3.3) (2.8) 

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,247 4,441 4,643 4,876 Total Generation (TWh) (0.3) (39.5) (43.3) (43.2) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 417 435 467 502 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (1.4) (3.0) (3.4) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 196 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.1) (0.6) (0.5) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 144 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.2) 0.2 0.7 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 115 114 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.3) (1.4) Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 138 145 149 153 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.5) (0.7) (0.5) 

Total Capacity (GW) 996 978 1,018 1,079 1,144 Total Capacity (GW) (0.2) (2.3) (4.5) (5.1) 

14­13

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 14.4.18 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, High Lighting Expertise Scenario (TSL5

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,488 1,625 1,767 1,906 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (33.7) (36.1) (35.4) Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,469 1,535 1,612 1,714 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.8) (5.1) (7.9) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,053 1,048 1,037 1,028 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (4.4) (3.6) (3.4) Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,141 2,303 2,507 2,750 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.2) (10.5) (20.7) (25.1) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 50 53 55 56 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.1) (0.5) (0.7) (0.6) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 821 778 696 634 597 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.4 (30.5) (20.4) (9.8) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 866 902 911 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (2.6) (10.7) Renewables Generation (TWh) 424 468 520 541 556 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.5) (0.7) (2.9) (2.8) 

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,244 4,437 4,638 4,870 Total Generation (TWh) (0.3) (42.2) (47.3) (49.1) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 416 435 466 502 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (1.7) (3.1) (3.9) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 196 205 209 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.2) (0.7) (0.5) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.2) 0.2 0.5 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 114 114 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.3) (1.5) Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 138 145 149 153 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.2) (0.4) (0.7) (0.6) 

Total Capacity (GW) 996 978 1,018 1,078 1,143 Total Capacity (GW) (0.2) (2.5) (4.6) (5.9) 

Table 14.4.19 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment Based Lighting Ex

(TSL1)

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,519 1,659 1,800 1,936 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (2.4) (2.2) (2.2) Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,471 1,539 1,619 1,720 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (0.3) (0.9) (1.3) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,057 1,051 1,039 1,029 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.7) (1.1) (1.7) Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,150 2,322 2,529 2,753 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (1.0) (2.6) (3.2) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 806 715 643 613 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.0 (2.4) (1.3) (0.6) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 911 929 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (0.2) (1.3) Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 522 543 558 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) 

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,283 4,480 4,681 4,910 Total Generation (TWh) (0.0) (3.5) (4.4) (5.5) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.2) Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) 

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,022 1,084 1,148 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.2) (0.4) (0.5) 

14­14

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 14.4.20 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment Based Lighting Ex

(TSL2)

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,517 1,658 1,799 1,936 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (4.4) (3.3) (2.8) Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,471 1,539 1,618 1,720 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (0.3) (1.1) (1.9) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,056 1,050 1,039 1,029 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.7) (1.8) (2.0) Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,150 2,321 2,528 2,754 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (1.4) (2.7) (3.5) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 803 713 643 612 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.1 (5.0) (2.9) (0.9) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 910 928 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (0.4) (1.9) Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 522 543 558 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.1) (0.3) (0.5) (0.5) 

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,279 4,478 4,680 4,909 Total Generation (TWh) (0.0) (6.7) (6.5) (7.0) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.2) (0.4) (0.5) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.0) 0.1 0.2 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.3) Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) 

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,022 1,084 1,148 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.4) (0.5) (0.7) 

Table 14.4.21 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment Based Lighting Ex

(TSL3)

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,514 1,655 1,796 1,934 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (7.0) (5.8) (5.6) Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,470 1,536 1,615 1,716 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.4) (3.4) (5.2) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,056 1,050 1,039 1,029 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.6) (1.7) (1.9) Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,149 2,318 2,525 2,752 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0 (2.3) (6.5) (6.6) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 821 801 713 642 611 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.3 (7.7) (3.4) (1.8) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 867 909 926 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (0.6) (3.6) Renewables Generation (TWh) 424 468 522 542 557 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.3) (0.4) (0.8) (1.0) 

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,276 4,473 4,673 4,903 Total Generation (TWh) (0.1) (10.5) (11.5) (13.2) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.3) (0.7) (0.8) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 115 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.1) (0.5) Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 149 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) 

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,022 1,083 1,148 Total Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.5) (0.9) (1.1) 

14­15

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
Table 14.4.22 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment Based Lighting Ex

(TSL4)

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,509 1,652 1,794 1,931 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (11.9) (9.1) (7.9) Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,470 1,536 1,614 1,716 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.5) (4.1) (5.9) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,054 1,048 1,038 1,028 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (4.1) (3.4) (2.9) Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,147 2,315 2,523 2,753 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (3.7) (9.0) (8.9) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 821 794 710 641 609 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.4 (13.8) (6.1) (2.4) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 867 908 923 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (1.0) (4.6) Renewables Generation (TWh) 424 468 521 542 557 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.4) (0.8) (1.2) (1.3) 

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,268 4,467 4,669 4,899 Total Generation (TWh) (0.1) (18.5) (17.5) (17.5) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 417 437 469 502 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.5) (1.3) (1.3) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 132 144 166 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.1) 0.3 0.7 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 115 116 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.1) (0.6) Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 149 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.2) (0.4) (0.3) 

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,021 1,083 1,147 Total Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.9) (1.6) (1.5) 

Table 14.4.23 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, Market Segment Based Lighting Ex

(TSL5)

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Reference 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,506 1,647 1,789 1,927 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (15.0) (13.5) (13.2) Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,470 1,536 1,614 1,716 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.4) (3.9) (5.7) Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,054 1,048 1,038 1,028 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (4.1) (3.3) (2.8) Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,146 2,313 2,519 2,752 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.1) (4.8) (11.5) (12.5) Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 56 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 821 792 709 641 608 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.4 (15.8) (7.3) (2.5) Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 867 906 922 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 0.0 (1.2) (6.0) Renewables Generation (TWh) 424 468 521 542 556 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.5) (0.7) (1.5) (1.4) 

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,265 4,462 4,664 4,895 Total Generation (TWh) (0.1) (21.6) (21.8) (22.7) 

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 417 437 469 502 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.7) (1.5) (1.7) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 144 166 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.0) 0.3 0.7 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 115 115 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.2) (0.8) Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 138 145 149 154 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.3) (0.5) (0.4) 

Total Capacity (GW) 996 979 1,021 1,082 1,147 Total Capacity (GW) (0.2) (1.1) (2.0) (2.2) 

14­16

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
)

W) )

)

W) )

Table 14.4.24 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (TSL4) Hig

Case

NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 High Economic Growth Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh 1,393 1,543 1,710 1,880 2,051 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (3.1) (3.3) (3.3) (Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,455 1,492 1,583 1,686 1,819 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (3.6) (4.1) (4.6) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,047 1,114 1,138 1,170 1,203 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) 0.2 0.1 0.1 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,202 2,505 2,755 3,037 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0 (1.7) (5.1) (4.4) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 55 57 59 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 853 855 689 624 577 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.1 (4.9) (2.2) (2.0) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 888 969 1,053 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.0) (1.2) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 474 530 562 580 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (

Total Generation (TWh) 4,158 4,390 4,667 4,968 5,306 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (6.8) (7.7) (8.1) (8

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 431 468 509 554 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.3) (0.6) (0.4) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 193 199 212 216 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (G 137 132 134 146 172 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW 0.0 (0.0) 0.1 0.2 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 114 123 132 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - - (0.2) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 147 154 158 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (

Total Capacity (GW) 996 996 1,061 1,144 1,234 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.3) (0.7) (0.6) (0

Table 14.4.25 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (TS

Growth Case

NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 High Economic Growth Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh 1,393 1,546 1,714 1,884 2,055 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (0.7) 0.0 0.0 (Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,455 1,492 1,583 1,687 1,819 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (3.2) (3.7) (3.8) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,047 1,114 1,138 1,170 1,203 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) 0.1 0.1 0.1 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,203 2,507 2,757 3,038 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.9) (2.7) (2.3) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 55 57 59 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 853 857 690 626 578 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.1 (3.0) (1.0) (0.7) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 888 970 1,054 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - - 0.0 (0.5) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 475 530 563 581 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (

Total Generation (TWh) 4,158 4,392 4,670 4,972 5,310 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (4.0) (3.8) (3.8) (4

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 431 468 509 554 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 0.0 (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 193 199 213 216 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (G 137 132 134 146 173 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 114 123 133 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - - (0.1) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 147 154 158 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (

Total Capacity (GW) 996 997 1,061 1,144 1,234 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 (0

14­17

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
)

W) )

)

W) )

Table 14.4.26 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (TSL3) H

Growth Case

NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 High Economic Growth Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh 1,393 1,533 1,697 1,865 2,036 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (13.3) (16.3) (18.6) (1Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,455 1,493 1,582 1,684 1,817 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.9) (4.7) (6.8) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,047 1,111 1,134 1,166 1,198 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (2.2) (3.2) (3.7) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,197 2,490 2,740 3,021 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.1 (6.3) (20.4) (19.7) (1Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 55 57 59 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 853 849 687 619 573 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.3 (11.1) (3.8) (7.0) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 888 968 1,051 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.0) (1.9) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 474 529 561 579 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.3) (0.9) (1.1) (1.4) (

Total Generation (TWh) 4,158 4,378 4,649 4,946 5,283 Total Generation (TWh) 0.1 (18.4) (25.6) (30.3) (31

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 430 466 506 552 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (1.2) (2.8) (2.5) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 193 198 212 216 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) (1.0) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (G 137 132 134 146 173 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW 0.1 (0.1) 0.3 0.7 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 114 123 132 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - - (0.2) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 146 154 158 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (

Total Capacity (GW) 996 995 1,058 1,141 1,231 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (1.5) (3.1) (3.3) (3

Table 14.4.27 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (T

Economic Growth Case

NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 High Economic Growth Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh 1,393 1,539 1,708 1,878 2,049 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (7.2) (6.0) (5.7) (Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,455 1,494 1,584 1,686 1,818 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.4) (3.5) (5.2) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,047 1,112 1,136 1,167 1,200 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.6) (2.0) (2.2) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,201 2,502 2,752 3,033 Coal Generation (TWh) 0.1 (3.0) (7.9) (8.0) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 55 57 59 Petroleum Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 853 852 687 623 576 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.2 (7.3) (3.5) (3.4) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 888 969 1,053 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) - (1.2) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 474 530 562 580 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.2) (0.4) (0.6) (0.8) (

Total Generation (TWh) 4,158 4,386 4,662 4,962 5,301 Total Generation (TWh) 0.1 (10.8) (12.1) (13.5) (14

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 430 468 508 554 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.5) (1.0) (0.9) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 193 199 212 216 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (G 137 132 134 146 172 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW 0.0 (0.1) 0.1 0.3 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 114 123 132 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - - (0.2) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 146 154 158 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (

Total Capacity (GW) 996 996 1,060 1,143 1,233 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.7) (1.2) (1.2) (1

14­18

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
) )

) )

) )

) )

Table 14.4.28 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (TSL4) Low 

Case

NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Low Economic Growth Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh 1,375 1,489 1,605 1,719 1,826 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh (0.0) (3.0) (3.1) (3.2) (Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,444 1,445 1,491 1,546 1,614 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (3.5) (4.0) (4.6) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,008 1,004 973 921 862 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,035 2,118 2,204 2,323 2,493 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (1.1) (2.2) (3.9) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 50 51 52 54 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 790 731 681 643 605 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.3 (4.8) (4.0) (2.9) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 853 859 836 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.4) (0.4) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 417 462 506 523 532 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.3) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (

Total Generation (TWh) 4,088 4,168 4,296 4,401 4,520 Total Generation (TWh) (0.0) (6.5) (7.2) (8.0) (8

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 434 410 419 436 461 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.2) (0.4) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 194 199 203 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.1) (0.1) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW 137 125 129 139 150 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.2 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 109 109 104 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.1) (0.1) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 132 136 141 144 146 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (

Total Capacity (GW) 994 965 991 1,028 1,064 Total Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.2) (0.4) (0.4) (0

Table 14.4.29 IRL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (TS

Growth Case

NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Low Economic Growth Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh 1,375 1,491 1,609 1,723 1,829 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh (0.0) (0.7) 0.1 0.0 (Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,444 1,445 1,492 1,547 1,615 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (3.2) (3.7) (3.7) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,008 1,003 973 920 862 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,035 2,119 2,205 2,325 2,495 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.8) (1.2) (1.9) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 50 51 53 54 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 790 733 684 645 607 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.1 (2.9) (1.9) (1.3) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 853 859 836 Nuclear Generation (TWh) - (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 417 463 507 523 532 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (

Total Generation (TWh) 4,088 4,171 4,299 4,405 4,524 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (3.9) (3.6) (3.8) (4

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 434 410 419 437 461 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 194 199 203 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) 0.0 (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW 137 125 129 139 150 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 109 109 104 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.0) (0.0) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 132 136 141 144 146 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (

Total Capacity (GW) 994 966 992 1,028 1,065 Total Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) 0.0 0

14­19

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
) )

) )

) )

) )

Table 14.4.30 GSFL Existing Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (TSL3) L

Growth Case

NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Low Economic Growth Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh 1,375 1,479 1,593 1,705 1,810 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh (0.0) (13.0) (15.4) (18.2) (1Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,444 1,447 1,491 1,544 1,612 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.6) (4.2) (6.7) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,008 1,001 970 917 857 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.1 (1.8) (2.7) (3.4) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,115 2,197 2,313 2,481 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.2) (4.1) (8.4) (13.7) (1Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 50 51 52 54 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 791 724 676 636 599 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 1.2 (11.3) (9.8) (10.2) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 850 856 833 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.0) (3.3) (3.8) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 417 461 505 522 531 Renewables Generation (TWh) (1.0) (1.8) (1.5) (1.8) (

Total Generation (TWh) 4,088 4,157 4,279 4,379 4,497 Total Generation (TWh) 0.0 (17.3) (23.3) (29.8) (31

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 434 410 419 435 459 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.3) (1.0) (1.6) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 194 199 202 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.3) (0.4) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW 137 125 128 139 150 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW 0.0 (0.3) (0.2) 0.3 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 108 108 104 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.5) (0.5) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 131 136 140 144 146 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (

Total Capacity (GW) 994 965 989 1,025 1,062 Total Capacity (GW) (0.3) (0.9) (2.3) (2.5) (2

Table 14.4.31 GSFL Emerging Technologies, Roll­up, No Product Substitution Scenario (T

Economic Growth Case

NEMS BT Results Difference From AEO2008 Low Economic Growth Case 

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2

Electricity Sales Electricity SalesCommercial Electricity Sales (TWh 1,375 1,485 1,603 1,717 1,823 Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh (0.0) (7.0) (5.7) (5.4) (Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,444 1,447 1,492 1,545 1,614 Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) (0.0) (1.3) (3.4) (5.1) (Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,008 1,002 971 918 859 Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 (1.4) (1.8) (2.0) (Generation GenerationCoal Generation (TWh) 2,035 2,117 2,202 2,321 2,490 Coal Generation (TWh) (0.1) (2.1) (3.5) (6.1) (Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 50 51 52 54 Petroleum Generation (TWh) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 790 728 680 642 604 Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 0.6 (7.5) (5.6) (4.7) (Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 852 858 835 Nuclear Generation (TWh) 0.0 (0.0) (1.2) (1.4) (Renewables Generation (TWh) 417 462 506 522 532 Renewables Generation (TWh) (0.5) (0.7) (0.9) (0.9) (

Total Generation (TWh) 4,088 4,164 4,291 4,396 4,514 Total Generation (TWh) (0.0) (10.3) (11.3) (13.3) (13

Capacity CapacityFossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 434 410 419 436 461 Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) (0.0) (0.2) (0.4) (0.7) (Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 194 199 203 Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) - - (0.1) (0.1) (Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW 137 125 129 139 150 Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) 0.2 Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 109 109 104 Nuclear Capacity (GW) - - (0.2) (0.2) (Renewables Capacity (GW) 131 136 141 144 146 Renewables Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (

Total Capacity (GW) 994 965 991 1,027 1,064 Total Capacity (GW) (0.1) (0.5) (0.9) (0.8) (0

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
REFERENCES

a U.S. Department of Energy ­ Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook

2008 with Projections to 2030. 2008: Washington, DC. <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/>

14­21

EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2