# Tom Moore, WRAP/WESTAR

February 2 5 , 2016

Preliminary Results from Western Air Quality Study

(8 pages)Tom MooreWRAP Air Quality Program ManagerWESTAR CouncilPhoenix, AZ11. Ozone NAAQS planning – (realistically) requiresphotochemical modeling for SIP attainment demonstrationsfor nonattainment areas.2. Ozone transport SIPs – photochemical source apportionmentmodeling is tool of choice to quantify U.S. Ozone backgroundas well as transport between states and jurisdictions.3. Identification of Ozone exceptional events caused bystratospheric intrusion and wildfires – can require variety ofobservations & data analysis, supplemented with global /regional scale photochemical models and regression models.4. Identification of international transport of Ozone for §179Bdemonstrations: requires nested global and regional scalephotochemical modeling to evaluate international transport ofOzone.5. Identification of §182 Rural Transport Areas – combination ofdata analysis and photochemical modeling.In the Westunder CAA,whom to dowhich ?Alone ortogether ?- States/Locals- Regional- Federal3Uncertainty in model estimates of U.S. BackgroundWRAP WestJumpAQMS 2008CAMx model platform:BC contributions of 50-72 ppb,much larger than OAQPS modeling.EPA 2007 CAMx model platform:BC contributions of 36-57 ppb; stillsubstantial U.S. anthropogeniccontribution to O3.CAMx simulations for 2007 and 2008 at Canyonlands National Park – Eastern UTSame methodology - reasons formodeled differences are not fullyunderstood4Background / BoundaryConditions evaluations:MOZARTGEOS-Chem(now adding AM3)+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Observations vs. Boundary Condition /Background Monthly Mean MDA8 Ozone+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Animations of Modeled Daily MaxConcentrationsBackground contributionDifference plots for background minusU.S. sourcesO3, NOx, CO, PM2.5+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Animations of Daily Max Concentrationsfor O3 and Dust Boundary TracersBoundary conditions plots:O3, Ox (O3+NO+NO2+PAN)Coarse Dust (CCRS), Fine PM (FPRM+FCRS)http://views.cira.colostate.edu/tsdw/IWDW-WAQS USB Modeling Simulation Description3 2011b annual USB+Natural sources using just the 36 km CONUS domain. Theruns invoke OSAT source apportionment (not APCA) with the following 5 SourceCategories:Mexico, Canada and Offshore Shipping (MCO) anthropogenic emissions.Natural emissions (Biogenic, Lightning NOx, SS and WBD)Open Land Fires (combined WF, Rx and Ag fires).Initial Concentrations (IC)Boundary Conditions (BC)These 3 use different sets of Boundary Conditions (BCs): MOZART (MZ) withdust cap; GEOS-Chem (GC) and AM3 (AM). Also conducted CAMx 2011b 36km Base Case (all emissions) and Clean CAMx 36/12 km run using MZBC.Base_MZBC_36 run (no OSAT) performed to run MATS with Clean_MZBC_36 run.Clean_MZBC_3612 run (No OSAT) will be run after the 36 km runs so we candetermine the importance of the 12 km WESTUS domain for Clean simulations.IWDW‐WAQSRound32011SourceApportionmentModelingSpecifications5IWDW-WAQS 2011b Ozone base case - Mozart global model as BCsmodeled 1sthighmodeled 4thhigh6Highest Modeled Ozone Max 2011b platformMozart top, GeosCHEM bottomUSB contribution USB-Fires74thHighest Modeled Max 2011b platform8Mozart top, GeosCHEM bottomUSB contribution USB-Fires