# CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

**14.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION**

**.................................. .......................................................................**  **14­1**

**14.2 A**  **SSUMPTIONS**

**............................................................................................................ 14­1** 

**14.3 M**  **ETHOD**

**........................................ ..............................................................................**  **14­2**

**14.4 R**  **ESULTS**

**...................................................................................................................... 14­3** 

**REFERENCES**

**........................................................................................................................ 14­21** 

LIST O F TABLES

**Table 1**  **4.4.1** AEO2008 **Reference Case..................................................................................**  **14­5**

**Table 14.4.2**  AEO2008 **High Economic**  **Growth Case............................................................**  **14­6**

**Table 14.4.3**  AEO2008 **Low Economic**  **Growth Case** 

**............................................................ 14­6** 

**Table 14.4.4 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift, Product Substitution Scenario (TSL1)........ 14­7** 

**Table 14.4.5 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift Product Substitution Scenario (TSL2)......... 14­7** 

**Table 14.4.6 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift Product Substitution Scenario (TSL3)......... 14­8** 

**Table 14.4.7 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift Product Substitution Scenario (TSL4)......... 14­8** 

**Table 14.4.8 IRL Existing Technologies, Shift Product Substitution Scenario (TSL5)......... 14­9** 

**Table 14.4.9**  **IRL Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **No Product**  **Substitution Scenario** 

**(TSL1)................................................................................................................ 14­9**

**Ta ble**  **14.4.10 IRL**  **Emerging Technologies,**  **Roll­up, No**  **Product Substitution**  **Scenario**

**(TSL2).............................................................................................................. 14­10**

**Table 14.4.11**  **IRL Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **No Product**  **Substitution Scenario** 

**(TSL3).............................................................................................................. 14­10**

**Table 14.4.12**  **IRL Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **No Product**  **Substitution Scenario** 

**(TSL4).............................................................................................................. 14­11**

**Table 14.4.13**  **IRL Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **No Product**  **Substitution Scenario** 

**(TSL5).............................................................................................................. 14­11**

**Table 14.4.14**  **GSFL Existing**  **Technologies, Shift,**  **High Lighting**  **Expertise Scenario** 

**(TSL1).............................................................................................................. 14­12**

**Table 14.4.15**  **GSFL Existing**  **Technologies, Shift,**  **High Lighting**  **Expertise Scenario** 

**(TSL2).............................................................................................................. 14­12**

**Table 14.4.16**  **GSFL Existing**  **Technologies, Shift,**  **High Lighting**  **Expertise Scenario** 

**(TSL3).............................................................................................................. 14­13**

**Table 14.4.17**  **GSFL Existing**  **Technologies, Shift,**  **High Lighting**  **Expertise Scenario** 

**(TSL4).............................................................................................................. 14­13**

**Table 14.4.18**  **GSFL Existing**  **Technologies, Shift,**  **High Lighting**  **Expertise Scenario** 

**(TSL5).............................................................................................................. 14­14**

**Table 14.4.19**  **GSFL Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **Market Segment**  **Based Lighting** 

**Expertise Scenario**  **(TSL1)............................................................................... 14­14** 

**14­i**

# Table **14.4.20 GSFL**  **Emerging Technologies,**  **Roll­up, Market**  **Segment Based**  **Lighting**

**Expertise S**  **cenario (TSL2)...............................................................................**  **14­15**

**Table 14.4.21**  **GSFL Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **Market Segment**  **Based Lighting** 

**Expertise S**  **cenario (TSL3)...............................................................................**  **14­15**

**Table 14.4.22**  **GSFL Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **Market Segment**  **Based Lighting** 

**Expertise S**  **cenario (TSL4)...............................................................................**  **14­16**

**Table 14.4.23**  **GSFL Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **Market Segment**  **Based Lighting** 

**Expertise S**  **cenario (TSL5)...............................................................................**  **14­16**

**Table 14.4.24**  **IRL Existing**  **Technologies, Shift,**  **Product Substitution**  **Scenario (TSL4)** 

**High Ec**  **onomic Growth**  **Case**

**.......................................................................... 14­17** 

**Table 14.4.25**  **IRL Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **No Product**  **Substitution Scenario** 

**(TSL4) H**  **igh Economic**  **Growth Case..............................................................**  **14­17**

**Table 14.4.26**  **GSFL Existing**  **Technologies, Shift,**  **Product Substitution**  **Scenario (TSL3)** 

**High Ec**  **onomic Growth**  **Case**

**.......................................................................... 14­18** 

**Table 14.4.27**  **GSFL Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **No Product**  **Substitution Scenario** 

**(TSL3) H**  **igh Economic**  **Growth Case..............................................................**  **14­18**

**Table 14.4.28**  **IRL Existing**  **Technologies, Shift,**  **Product Substitution**  **Scenario (TSL4)** 

**Low Economic**  **Growth Case........................................................................... 14­19** 

**Table 14.4.29**  **IRL Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **No Product**  **Substitution Scenario** 

**(TSL4) L**  **ow Economic**  **Growth Case** 

**.............................................................. 14­19** 

**Table 14.4.30**  **GSFL Existing**  **Technologies, Shift,**  **Product Substitution**  **Scenario (TSL3)** 

**Low Economic**  **Growth Case........................................................................... 14­20** 

**Table 14.4.31**  **GSFL Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **No Product**  **Substitution Scenario** 

**(TSL3) L**  **ow Economic**  **Growth Case** 

**.............................................................. 14­20** 

**14­ii**

# CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 I NTRODUCTION

**Th e**  **u tility**  **impact analysis**  **estimates the**  **change in**  **the forecasted**  **power generation** 

**capacity of**  **the Nation**  **which would**  **be expected**  **to result**  **from the**  **adoption of**  **amended efficacy** 

**standards. DOE**  **used a**  **version of**  **the Energy**  **Information Agency’s**  **(EIA’s) National**  **Energy**

**Modeling System**  **(NEMS) for**  **this utility**  **impact analysis.**  **a** 

# NEMS **which is**  **available in**  **the**

**public domain**  **is a**  **large, multi­sectoral,**  **partial equilibrium**  **model of**  **the U.S.**  **energy sector.**  **EIA**

**uses NEMS**  **to produce**  **its** Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)

**, a**  **widely recognized**  **baseline energy** 

**forecast for**  **the United**  **States. The**  **version of**  **NEMS used**  **for appliance**  **standards analysis**  **is**

**b** 

# called **NEMS­BT and**  **is primarily**  **based on**  **the** AEO2008 **with minor**  **modifications. The**

**NEMS­BT offers**  **a sophisticated**  **picture of**  **the effect**  **of standards,**  **since it**  **accounts for**  **the**

**interactions between**  **the various**  **energy supply**  **and demand**  **sectors and**  **the economy**  **as a**  **whole.**

**The u**  **tility impact**  **analysis reports**  **the changes**  **in installed**  **capacity and**  **generation, by** 

**fuel type,**  **that result**  **from the**  **adoption of**  **amended efficacy**  **standards at**  **each trial**  **standard level** 

**(TSL), as**  **well as**  **changes in**  **residential, commercial**  **and industrial**  **sector electricity** 

**consumption.**

14.2 A SSUMPTIONS

**NEM S­BT**  **h as**  **several advantages**  **that have**  **led to**  **its adoption**  **as the**  **forecasting tool**  **in**

**the analysis**  **of efficacy**  **standards. NEMS­BT**  **uses a**  **set of**  **assumptions that**  **are well**  **known and** 

**fairly transparent,**  **due to**  **the exposure**  **and scrutiny**  **each** AEO **receives. In**  **addition, the** 

**comprehensiveness of**  **NEMS­BT permits**  **the modeling**  **of interactions**  **among the**  **various energy** 

**supply and**  **demand sectors**  **and the**  **economy as**  **a whole,**  **producing a**  **complete picture**  **of the** 

**effects of**  **efficacy standards.**  **Perhaps most**  **importantly, NEMS­BT**  **can be**  **used to**  **estimate**

**marginal effects,**  **which yield**  **a better**  **estimate of**  **the actual**  **impact of**  **efficacy standards**  **than**

**considering only**  **average effects.** 

**The u**  **tility impact**  **analysis uses**  **the assumptions**  **of the**  AEO2008 **and treats**  **the effects**  **on**

**electricity of**  **efficacy improvements**  **due to**  **the deployment**  **of amended**  **general service** 

**fluorescent lamp**  **(GSFL) and**  **incandescent reflector**  **lamp (IRL)**  **efficacy standards**  **as variations** 

**in policy.**  **The effect**  **of the**  **policy is**  **calculated as**  **the difference**  **between the**  AEO2008

**Reference Case**  **and each**  **proposed standard**  **case. Because**  **the implementation**  **of standards** 

**a** 

# For **more information**  **on NEMS,**  **refer to**  **the U.S.**  **Department of**  **Energy, Energy**  **Information Administration** 

**documentation. A**  **useful summary**  **is** National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003

**, DOE/EIA** 

**0581(2003), March,**  **2003. (**  **ht tp://tonto.eia.doe.gov/ftproot/forecasting/05812003.pdf**  **)**

**b** 

# The **EIA approves**  **the use**  **of the**  **name NEMS**  **to describe**  **only an**  AEO **v ersion**  **o f**  **the model**  **without any** 

**modification to**  **code or**  **data. Because**  **the present**  **analysis entails**  **some minor**  **code modifications**  **and runs**  **the**

**model under**  **various policy**  **scenarios that**  **deviate from**  AEO **a ssumptions,**  **th e**  **name NEMS­BT**  **refers to**  **the model** 

**as used**  **here. (“BT”**  **stands for**  **DOE’s Building**  **Technologies Program.)** 

**14­1**

# reduces **total electricity**  **demand by**  **a relatively**  **small amount**  **(in many**  **cases less**  **than one** 

**percent) in**  **any given**  **year, its**  **effect cannot**  **be detected**  **directly in**  **the simulations.**  **Therefore,**

**DOE modeled**  **larger reductions**  **in demand**  **and interpolated**  **results for**  **the TSLs.**  **DOE assumed** 

**the effects**  **to be**  **linear within**  **the range**  **of interpolation.**  **This method**  **is discussed**  **in more**  **detail**

**below and**  **in Appendix**  **14A.**

**DOE a**  **lso considered**  **the High**  **and Low**  **Economic Growth**  **Cases of**  AEO2008

**. The** 

AEO2008 **Reference Case**  **corresponds to**  **medium growth.**  **The High**  **Economic Growth**  **Case**

**assumes higher**  **projected growth**  **rates for**  **population, labor**  **force, and**  **labor productivity,** 

**resulting in**  **lower predicted**  **inflation and**  **interest rates,**  **and higher**  **aggregate economic**  **growth,**

**relative to**  **the reference**  **case. The**  **opposite is**  **true for**  **the Low**  **Economic Growth**  **Case. The** 

**High Growth**  **Case reflects**  **an average**  **annual growth**  **in gross**  **domestic product**  **of 3.4**  **percent**

**per year**  **compared with**  **3.0 percent**  **per year**  **in the**  **Reference Case,**  **and 2.2**  **percent per**  **year in** 

**the Low**  **Growth Case.**  **Different economic**  **growth scenarios**  **affect the**  **rate of**  **growth of** 

**electricity demand.**  **DOE ran**  **the High**  **and Low**  **Economic Growth**  **Cases only**  **for the**  **proposed**

**standards.**

14.3 M ETHOD

**NEM S­BT**  **m odels**  **certain policy**  **scenarios, such**  **as the**  **effect of**  **reduced electricity** 

**consumption, for**  **each trial**  **standard level.**  **The analysis**  **output provides**  **a forecast**  **for the**  **needed**

**power generation**  **capacity and**  **generation by**  **fuel at**  **each TSL.**  **The estimated**  **net benefit**  **of the** 

**standard is**  **the difference**  **between the**  **forecasted results**  **by NEMS­BT**  **and the**  AEO2008

**Reference Case.** 

**DOE u**  **sed the**  **national energy**  **savings developed**  **in the**  **national impact**  **analysis (Chapter** 

**11) for**  **each TSL**  **as input**  **to NEMS­BT.**  **The magnitude**  **of the**  **energy decrement**  **that would**  **be**

**required for**  **NEMS­BT to**  **produce stable**  **results out**  **of the**  **range of**  **numerical noise**  **is generally** 

**larger than**  **the highest**  **efficacy standard**  **under consideration.**  **Therefore, DOE**  **estimated results** 

**corresponding to**  **each TSL**  **using interpolation.**  **DOE ran**  **higher use**  **reduction levels**  **in NEMS** 

**BT, representing**  **multipliers of**  **each TSL,**  **and used**  **these outputs**  **to linearly**  **interpolate the** 

**results to**  **estimate actual**  **changes in**  **generation and**  **capacity due**  **to the**  **standard. A**  **detailed**

**description of**  **the interpolation**  **method is**  **given in**  **Appendix 14A.** 

**Policy r**  **uns are**  **executed by**  **reducing electricity**  **consumption in**  **the NEMS­BT** 

**Residential, Commercial**  **and Industrial**  **(when appropriate)**  **Demand Modules.**  **Energy use** 

**reductions are**  **applied to**  **the lighting**  **end use**  **in each**  **sector.**

**Although t**  **he amended**  **GSFL and**  **IRL efficacy**  **standards lead**  **to greater**  **electricity**

**demand reductions**  **than most**  **of the**  **other previous**  **standards, the**  **price impacts**  **based on**  **NEMS**

**BT runs**  **performed for**  **this rulemaking**  **are still**  **projected to**  **be quite**  **small. The**  **case with**  **the**

**greatest projected**  **energy savings**  **(TSL 5**  **for GSFL**  **under the**  **Existing Technology,**  **High**

**Lighting Expertise,**  **Shift Scenario)**  **projects electricity**  **generation reductions**  **of at**  **most 1.1** 

**percent in**  **any year.**  **The maximum**  **decrease in**  **average electricity**  **prices is**  **0.8 percent**  **in a**  **year,**

**and the**  **average over**  **the period**  **2012 to**  **2030 is**  **only 0.3**  **percent.**

**14­2**

# Further, **the rapid**  **turnover of**  **lamp stock**  **leads to**  **energy savings**  **that rise**  **quickly and** 

**then plateau**  **over time.**  **This pattern**  **of savings**  **yields a**  **relatively complex**  **intertemporal pattern** 

**of utility**  **investment and**  **prices. It**  **is possible**  **that price**  **reductions may**  **occur in**  **some years,** 

**while prices**  **rise in**  **other years,**  **as capital**  **expenditures may**  **be deferred**  **and then**  **be required** 

**later. The**  **end result**  **is that**  **the inter­temporal**  **nature of**  **capital stock**  **turnover in**  **the power** 

**industry means**  **that price**  **impacts do**  **not smoothly**  **rise over**  **time.**

**In a**  **ddition, the**  **distribution and**  **pricing of**  **electricity is**  **regulated everywhere,**  **wherein**

**institutional structure**  **varies and**  **the pricing**  **of upstream**  **components (i.e.,**  **generation and** 

**transmission) are**  **frequently complicated**  **by different**  **price setting**  **methods used**  **across the** 

**country. The**  **power sector**  **entities impacted**  **by the**  **price changes**  **due to**  **the application**  **of the** 

**amended efficacy**  **standards are**  **a heterogeneous**  **group. They**  **include regulated**  **distribution and** 

**transmission companies,**  **regulated generation**  **or vertically**  **integrated power**  **companies, and** 

**unregulated generation**  **companies.**

**While D**  **OE considered**  **reporting the**  **electricity price**  **impacts as**  **a part**  **of the**  **utility**

**impact analysis,**  **due to**  **the significant**  **uncertainty of**  **projecting prices,**  **the complexity**  **of the** 

**power industry**  **(including the**  **variety of**  **utility regulation**  **in the**  **U.S.), and**  **the relatively**  **small**

**impact of**  **amended efficacy**  **standards on**  **prices it**  **was determined**  **that these**  **considerations**

**should not**  **be weighed**  **heavily in**  **the decision**  **about the**  **standard level.**  **These timing** 

**complexities along**  **with geographic**  **and regulatory**  **diversity make**  **it virtually**  **impossible to** 

**unwind societal**  **benefits from**  **these price**  **impacts.**

**Although t**  **he current**  **time horizon**  **of NEMS­BT**  **is 2030,**  **other parts**  **of the**  **analyses for** 

**GSFL and**  **IRL amended**  **efficacy standards**  **extend to**  **the year**  **2042. It**  **is not**  **feasible to**  **extend**

**the forecast**  **period of**  **NEMS­BT for**  **the purposes**  **of this**  **analysis, nor**  **does DOE/EIA**  **have an** 

**approved method**  **for extrapolation**  **of many**  **outputs beyond**  **2030. While**  **it might**  **seem**

**reasonable to**  **make simple**  **linear extrapolations**  **of results,**  **in practice**  **this is**  **not advisable** 

**because outputs**  **could be**  **contradictory. For**  **example, changes**  **in the**  **fuel mix**  **implied by** 

**extrapolations of**  **those outputs**  **could be**  **inconsistent with**  **the extrapolation**  **of marginal** 

**emissions factors.**  **An analysis**  **of various**  **trends sufficiently**  **detailed to**  **guarantee consistency**  **is**

**beyond the**  **scope of**  **this work,**  **and, in**  **any case,**  **would involve**  **a great**  **deal of**  **uncertainty.**

**Therefore, all**  **extrapolations beyond**  **2030 are**  **simple replications**  **of year**  **2030 results.**  **While**

**these may**  **seem unreasonable**  **in some**  **instances, in**  **this way**  **results are**  **guaranteed to**  **be**

**consistent. As**  **with the**  AEO **Reference Case**  **in general,**  **the implicit**  **assumption is**  **that the** 

**regulatory environment**  **does not**  **deviate from**  **the current**  **known situation**  **during the** 

**extrapolation period.**  **Only changes**  **that have**  **been announced**  **with date­certain**  **introduction are** 

**included in**  **NEMS­BT. To**  **emphasize the**  **extrapolated results**  **wherever they**  **appear, they**  **are**

**shaded in**  **gray to**  **distinguish them**  **from actual**  **NEMS­BT results.** 

14.4 R ESULTS

**Th e**  **u tility**  **impact analysis**  **reports NEMS­BT**  **forecasts for**  **generation, installed**  **capacity,**

**and residential,**  **commercial and**  **industrial­sector consumption.**  **Results are**  **for all**  **TSLs**

**14­3**

# presented **in five­year**  **increments to**  **year 2030**  **for the**  **Reference Case.**  **Only the**  **results for**  **the**

**proposed TSL**  **for IRL**  **and GSFL**  **are reported**  **for the**  **High and**  **Low Growth**  **cases. Again,** 

**beyond the**  **year 2030,**  **an extrapolation**  **to 2042**  **for each**  **proposed TSL**  **is represented**  **by a**  **simple**

**replication of**  **the year**  **2030 results.** 

**The r**  **esults from**  **the** AEO2008 **Reference Case**  **are shown**  **in Table**  **14.4.1 while**  **results**

**for the**  AEO2008 **High and**  **Low Economic**  **Growth Cases**  **are shown**  **in Table**  **14.4.2 and**  **14.4.3,**

**respectively.**

**A separate**  **s et**  **of TSLs**  **are modeled**  **for each**  **lamp technology.**  **A total**  **of five**  **TSLs are** 

**modeled for**  **each of**  **the two**  **technologies, IRL**  **and GSFL.**  **In addition,**  **for each**  **technology, the** 

**two scenarios**  **that bound**  **the NIA**  **results are**  **evaluated:**

• **For I**  **RL, DOE**  **evaluated Existing**  **Technologies, Shift,**  **Product Substitution**  **scenario and**  **the**

**Emerging Technologies,**  **Roll­up, No**  **Product Substitution**  **scenario as**  **the high**  **and low**  **range**

**estimates, respectively.** 

• **For G**  **SFL, DOE**  **evaluated the**  **Existing Technologies,**  **Shift, High**  **Lighting Expertise** 

**scenario and**  **the Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **Market Segment**  **Based, Lighting** 

**Expertise scenario**  **as the**  **high and**  **low range**  **estimates respectively.** 

**For a**  **dditional discussion**  **of the**  **formulation of**  **these scenarios,**  **see TSD**  **Chapter 10** 

**The NEM**  **S­BT results**  **for IRL**  **are presented**  **in Tables**  **14.4.4 through**  **14.4.13. These** 

**tables present**  **the changes**  **in installed**  **capacity and**  **generation by**  **fuel type**  **and bound**  **the utility** 

**impacts for**  **IRL. A**  **parallel set**  **of tables**  **for the**  **GSFL are**  **presented in**  **Tables 14.4.14**  **to 14.4.23.** 

**Each table**  **also includes**  **the extrapolation**  **of the**  **results to**  **2042.**

**Amended I**  **RL energy**  **conservations result**  **in decreases**  **in electricity**  **consumption for**  **all**

**TSLs compared**  **to the**  AEO2008 **Reference Case**  **under both**  **scenarios. Power**  **generation**

**capacity is**  **either unaffected**  **or reduced**  **by up**  **to 500**  **Mw.**

**Amended G**  **SFL efficacy**  **standards result**  **in decreases**  **to electricity**  **consumption for**  **all TSLs** 

**compared to**  **the** AEO2008 **Reference Case**  **under both**  **scenarios as**  **well. Power**  **generation**

**capacity is**  **more affected**  **for GSFL**  **efficacy standards**  **due to**  **the larger**  **decreases in**  **electricity**

**consumption associated**  **with their**  **adoption. Power**  **generation capacity**  **is reduced**  **between 600** 

**MW (for**  **TSL 1**  **under the**  **GSFL Emerging**  **Technologies, Roll­up,**  **Market Segment**  **Based**

**Lighting Expertise**  **scenario) to**  **5.4 GW**  **(for TSL**  **5 under**  **the Existing**  **Technology, Shift,**  **High**

**Lighting Expertise**  **scenario).**

**The r**  **esults from**  **the** AEO2008 **High Economic**  **Growth Reference**  **Case and**  AEO2008

**Low Economic**  **Growth Reference**  **Case for**  **the proposed**  **TSL for**  **GSFL and**  **IRL are**  **shown in** 

**Tables 14.4.24**  **through 14.4.31.**  **Tables 14.4.24**  **through 14.4.27**  **present the**  **results from**  **the**

**High Economic**  **Growth Case**  **for the**  **GSFL and**  **IRL for**  **the same**  **scenarios presented**  **for the** 

AEO2008 **Reference Case.**  **Tables 14.4.28**  **through 14.4.31**  **present the**  **results from**  **the Low** 

**Economic Growth**  **Case for**  **GSFL and**  **IRL for**  **the same**  **scenarios presented**  **for the**  AEO2008

**Reference Case.** 

**14­4**

# Table 14.4.1 AEO2008 Reference Case

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results

AEO 2008 Reference Data 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Sales

Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,386 1,521 1,661 1,802 1,939

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,450 1,471 1,540 1,620 1,722

Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,027 1,058 1,052 1,041 1,031

Generation

Coal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,151 2,324 2,532 2,755

Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 53 55 57

Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 820 808 716 644 615

Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 868 912 931

Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 469 523 543 558

Total Generation (TWh) 4,125 4,286 4,484 4,687 4,916

Capacity

Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 418 438 470 503

Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 197 205 210

Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 129 131 143 165

Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 111 116 117

Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 145 150 154

Total Capacity (GW) 996 980 1,023 1,084 1,149



# 14­5

# Table 14.4.2 AEO2008 High Economic Growth Case

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results

AEO2008 High Economic Growth Case Data 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Sales

Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,393 1,547 1,714 1,883 2,055

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,455 1,495 1,587 1,691 1,824

Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,047 1,114 1,138 1,170 1,202

Generation

Coal Generation (TWh) 2,034 2,204 2,510 2,760 3,040

Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 51 55 57 59

Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 853 860 691 626 579

Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 888 970 1,056

Renewables Generation (TWh) 425 475 530 563 581

Total Generation (TWh) 4,158 4,396 4,674 4,976 5,315

Capacity

Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 435 431 469 509 554

Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 193 199 213 216

Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 132 134 145 172

Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 114 123 133

Renewables Capacity (GW) 133 139 147 154 159

Total Capacity (GW) 996 997 1,061 1,144 1,234



# Table 14.4.3 AEO2008 Low Economic Growth Case

Utility Impact Analysis ­ NEMS BT Results

AEO2008 Low Economic Growth Case Data 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Sales

Commercial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,375 1,492 1,608 1,723 1,829

Residential Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,444 1,448 1,495 1,550 1,619

Industrial Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,008 1,003 973 920 862

Generation

Coal Generation (TWh) 2,035 2,119 2,206 2,327 2,498

Petroleum Generation (TWh) 50 50 51 53 54

Natural Gas Generation (TWh) 790 736 685 646 608

Nuclear Generation (TWh) 797 807 854 860 837

Renewables Generation (TWh) 417 463 507 523 532

Total Generation (TWh) 4,088 4,174 4,303 4,409 4,528

Capacity

Fossil Fuel Steam Capacity (GW) 434 410 420 437 461

Combined Cycle Capacity (GW) 190 192 194 199 203

Combustion Turbines Capacity (GW) 137 125 129 139 150

Nuclear Capacity (GW) 101 102 109 109 104

Renewables Capacity (GW) 132 136 141 144 146

Total Capacity (GW) 994 966 992 1,028 1,065



# 14­6Table14.4.4IRLExistingTechnologies,Shift,ProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL1)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5211,6611,8021,939CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4701,5391,6191,720ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(0.8)(0.9)(1.0)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0581,0521,0411,031IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.00.00.00.00.10.10.10.1GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1512,3242,5312,755CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.2)(0.6)(0.6)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820807715644614NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.0(0.9)(0.4)(0.2)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807868912931NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(0.1)(0.4)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469523543558RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2854,4834,6854,915TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(1.1)(1.1)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438470503FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)0.0(0.0)(0.0)0.00.00.00.0CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.00.00.00.10.10.10.10.1NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111116116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145150154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0231,0841,149TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)0.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)Table14.4.5IRLExistingTechnologies,ShiftProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL2)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5201,6601,8011,938CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(1.2)(1.3)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4701,5381,6181,719ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(1.5)(1.7)(2.0)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0581,0521,0411,031IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.00.10.10.10.20.20.20.2GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1512,3232,5302,755CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.5)(1.6)(1.8)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820806715643614NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.0(2.2)(1.1)(0.4)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807868911930NuclearGeneration(TWh)-0.0(0.2)(1.0)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469522543558RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2834,4814,6834,913TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(2.8)(3.1)(3.4)(3.5)(3.5)(3.5)(3.5)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438470503FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.2)(0.2)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.00.00.10.20.20.20.20.2NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111116116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145150154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0231,0841,148TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)**14­7**Table14.4.6IRLExistingTechnologies,ShiftProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL3)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5191,6581,7991,937CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(2.3)(2.5)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4691,5371,6171,718ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(2.6)(3.0)(3.5)(3.9)(3.9)(3.9)(3.9)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0581,0521,0411,031IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.00.20.20.20.30.30.30.3GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1502,3212,5292,754CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.9)(2.6)(3.3)(1.5)(1.5)(1.5)(1.5)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820804714643613NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.1(4.0)(2.3)(0.9)(2.0)(2.0)(2.0)(2.0)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807868911929NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(0.3)(1.5)(2.5)(2.5)(2.5)(2.5)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469522543558RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(0.1)(0.3)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2814,4784,6804,910TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(5.1)(5.6)(6.2)(6.5)(6.5)(6.5)(6.5)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438470503FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.3)(0.4)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.00.00.20.30.40.40.40.4NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111116116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145150154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0221,0841,148TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.3)(0.4)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)Table14.4.7IRLExistingTechnologies,ShiftProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL4)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5181,6581,7991,936CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(3.0)(3.1)(3.3)(3.3)(3.3)(3.3)(3.3)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4681,5361,6151,717ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(3.6)(4.1)(4.6)(5.0)(5.0)(5.0)(5.0)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0581,0521,0411,031IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.00.20.30.20.30.30.30.3GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1502,3212,5282,753CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(1.3)(3.3)(4.1)(2.0)(2.0)(2.0)(2.0)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820803713643612NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.1(5.2)(3.1)(1.3)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807868910928NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(0.4)(2.1)(2.9)(2.9)(2.9)(2.9)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469522543558RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(0.2)(0.5)(0.5)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2794,4774,6794,908TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(6.7)(7.3)(8.1)(8.2)(8.2)(8.2)(8.2)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438470503FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.3)(0.4)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.0)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.00.00.20.30.30.30.30.3NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111116116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.0)(0.3)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145150154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0221,0841,148TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)**14­8**Table14.4.8IRLExistingTechnologies,ShiftProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL5)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5181,6571,7981,936CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(3.4)(3.5)(3.7)(3.7)(3.7)(3.7)(3.7)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4681,5361,6151,716ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(3.5)(4.1)(4.7)(5.2)(5.2)(5.2)(5.2)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0581,0521,0411,032IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.00.30.30.30.40.40.40.4GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1502,3202,5282,754CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(1.3)(3.7)(4.2)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820803713643612NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.1(5.4)(3.1)(1.3)(2.7)(2.7)(2.7)(2.7)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807868910928NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(0.4)(2.3)(3.6)(3.6)(3.6)(3.6)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469522543558RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(0.2)(0.4)(0.5)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2794,4764,6784,908TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(7.0)(7.7)(8.5)(8.8)(8.8)(8.8)(8.8)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438470503FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.3)(0.4)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.0)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.00.00.20.30.40.40.40.4NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111116116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.1)(0.3)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145150154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0221,0841,148TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)Table14.4.9IRLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,NoProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL1)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5211,6611,8021,939CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(0.1)0.00.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4711,5391,6191,721ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(0.6)(0.7)(0.7)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0581,0521,0411,031IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1512,3242,5322,755CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.1)(0.3)(0.3)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820808716644614NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.0(0.6)(0.3)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807868912931NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469523543558RenewablesGeneration(TWh)0.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2854,4834,6864,916TotalGeneration(TWh)0.0(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438470503FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)0.00.0(0.0)(0.0)0.00.00.00.0CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-0.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.00.00.00.10.10.10.10.1NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111116116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145150154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0231,0841,149TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)0.0(0.0)0.00.00.00.00.0**14­9**Table14.4.10IRLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,NoProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL2)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5211,6611,8021,939CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(0.2)0.10.00.00.00.00.0ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4701,5381,6181,720ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(1.4)(1.5)(1.6)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0581,0521,0411,031IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.00.10.10.10.10.10.10.1GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1512,3232,5312,755CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.3)(0.6)(0.8)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820807715644614NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.0(1.4)(0.7)(0.2)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807868912931NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(0.0)(0.5)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469523543558RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2844,4834,6854,915TotalGeneration(TWh)0.0(1.7)(1.5)(1.6)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)(1.7)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438470503FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)0.00.00.00.0CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.00.00.10.20.20.20.20.2NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111116116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145150154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0231,0841,149TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Table14.4.11IRLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,NoProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL3)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5211,6611,8021,939CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(0.5)0.10.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4691,5371,6171,718ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(2.6)(2.9)(3.0)(3.3)(3.3)(3.3)(3.3)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0581,0521,0411,031IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.00.10.10.10.20.20.20.2GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1512,3232,5302,755CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.5)(1.2)(1.5)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820806715643614NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.0(2.5)(1.4)(0.4)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807868911930NuclearGeneration(TWh)-0.0(0.1)(0.9)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469522543558RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2834,4814,6844,913TotalGeneration(TWh)0.0(3.1)(2.9)(3.1)(3.3)(3.3)(3.3)(3.3)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438470503FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)0.10.10.10.1CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-0.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.00.00.10.30.30.30.30.3NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111116116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145150154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0231,0841,149TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0**14­10**Table14.4.12IRLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,NoProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL4)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5211,6611,8021,939CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(0.7)0.10.0(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4681,5361,6161,717ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(3.2)(3.7)(3.8)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0581,0521,0411,031IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.00.10.10.10.20.20.20.2GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1502,3232,5302,754CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.6)(1.6)(1.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820805714643614NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.0(3.1)(1.7)(0.5)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807868911930NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(0.1)(1.0)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469522543558RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2824,4804,6834,912TotalGeneration(TWh)0.0(3.9)(3.6)(3.7)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438470503FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)0.0(0.1)(0.1)0.10.10.10.1CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-0.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.00.00.20.30.30.30.30.3NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111116116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145150154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0231,0841,149TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)0.0(0.0)0.00.00.00.00.0Table14.4.13IRLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,NoProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL5)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5201,6611,8021,939CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(0.8)0.1(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4671,5361,6161,717ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(3.7)(4.3)(4.5)(4.9)(4.9)(4.9)(4.9)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0581,0521,0411,031IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.00.20.20.20.20.20.20.2GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1502,3222,5292,753CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.8)(1.8)(2.9)(2.0)(2.0)(2.0)(2.0)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820805714643613NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.0(3.7)(2.0)(0.4)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807868911930NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(0.1)(0.9)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469522543558RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2824,4804,6824,911TotalGeneration(TWh)0.0(4.6)(4.3)(4.5)(5.0)(5.0)(5.0)(5.0)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438470503FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.3)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-0.0(0.0)0.0(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.00.10.20.40.40.40.40.4NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111116116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145150154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0231,0841,149TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)0.0(0.0)0.00.00.00.00.0**14­11**Table14.4.14GSFLExistingTechnologies,Shift,HighLightingExpertiseScenario(TSL1)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5171,6561,7961,932CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(4.6)(5.2)(5.9)(7.2)(7.2)(7.2)(7.2)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4691,5361,6141,715ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(1.7)(4.1)(6.2)(6.2)(6.2)(6.2)(6.2)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0561,0491,0371,027IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(1.9)(2.6)(3.2)(3.8)(3.8)(3.8)(3.8)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1492,3172,5232,749CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(1.8)(7.6)(8.8)(6.1)(6.1)(6.1)(6.1)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820802713642610NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.1(6.6)(3.3)(2.1)(4.4)(4.4)(4.4)(4.4)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807867908925NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(0.7)(4.1)(5.9)(5.9)(5.9)(5.9)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469522542557RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.2)(0.8)(0.9)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2784,4724,6714,899TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(8.6)(12.5)(16.1)(17.9)(17.9)(17.9)(17.9)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438469502FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.8)(1.0)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129132144166CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.00.00.30.70.60.60.60.6NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111115116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.1)(0.6)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145149154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0221,0831,147TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.2)(0.8)(1.2)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)Table14.4.15GSFLExistingTechnologies,Shift,HighLightingExpertiseScenario(TSL2)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5161,6551,7961,932CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(5.7)(5.7)(6.2)(7.5)(7.5)(7.5)(7.5)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4701,5361,6141,715ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(1.6)(4.0)(6.2)(6.2)(6.2)(6.2)(6.2)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0551,0491,0371,027IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(2.3)(2.8)(3.3)(3.8)(3.8)(3.8)(3.8)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1492,3172,5232,750CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(2.0)(7.2)(8.5)(5.0)(5.0)(5.0)(5.0)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820801712641610NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.1(7.7)(4.2)(2.3)(5.1)(5.1)(5.1)(5.1)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807867908925NuclearGeneration(TWh)-0.0(0.7)(4.2)(6.4)(6.4)(6.4)(6.4)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469522542557RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(0.3)(1.0)(1.1)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2764,4714,6704,898TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(10.1)(13.2)(16.4)(18.2)(18.2)(18.2)(18.2)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438469502FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.3)(0.9)(1.0)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129132143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.0(0.0)0.30.60.40.40.40.4NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111115116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.1)(0.6)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145149154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0221,0831,147TotalCapacity(GW)(0.1)(0.4)(1.0)(1.4)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)**14­12**Table14.4.16GSFLExistingTechnologies,Shift,HighLightingExpertiseScenario(TSL3)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5081,6451,7831,920CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(13.2)(15.7)(18.6)(18.9)(18.9)(18.9)(18.9)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4691,5351,6131,715ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(1.8)(4.4)(6.8)(6.9)(6.9)(6.9)(6.9)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0561,0491,0381,028IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(2.1)(2.5)(3.0)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1472,3112,5162,747CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(4.4)(12.7)(15.7)(8.6)(8.6)(8.6)(8.6)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535556PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820795708640607NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.2(12.9)(7.9)(3.7)(8.1)(8.1)(8.1)(8.1)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807867904920NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(1.3)(8.2)(11.2)(11.2)(11.2)(11.2)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)424468521541556RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.2)(0.4)(1.7)(1.9)(2.1)(2.1)(2.1)(2.1)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2684,4604,6574,886TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(18.0)(23.9)(29.8)(30.3)(30.3)(30.3)(30.3)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435417437468502FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.6)(1.7)(2.2)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.1)(0.3)(0.2)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.0(0.1)0.30.50.30.30.30.3NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111115115NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.2)(1.1)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145149153RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.1)(0.2)(0.4)(0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)TotalCapacity(GW)9969791,0201,0811,145TotalCapacity(GW)(0.1)(1.0)(2.3)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)Table14.4.17GSFLExistingTechnologies,Shift,HighLightingExpertiseScenario(TSL4)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,4891,6281,7721,911CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(32.0)(32.9)(30.5)(28.3)(28.3)(28.3)(28.3)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4701,5351,6131,714ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(1.5)(4.9)(7.5)(7.4)(7.4)(7.4)(7.4)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0541,0481,0371,028IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(4.0)(3.4)(3.4)(3.5)(3.5)(3.5)(3.5)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1422,3042,5102,750CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(9.3)(20.3)(21.5)(5.3)(5.3)(5.3)(5.3)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5050535556PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(0.4)(0.5)(0.6)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)821779699635600NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.7(29.0)(16.7)(8.6)(15.0)(15.0)(15.0)(15.0)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807866903914NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(2.4)(9.7)(17.0)(17.0)(17.0)(17.0)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)424468519541556RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.7)(0.9)(3.3)(2.8)(2.4)(2.4)(2.4)(2.4)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2474,4414,6434,876TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.3)(39.5)(43.3)(43.2)(40.3)(40.3)(40.3)(40.3)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435417435467502FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(1.4)(3.0)(3.4)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192196205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.1)(0.6)(0.5)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131144165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.0(0.2)0.20.70.30.30.30.3NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111115114NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.3)(1.4)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133138145149153RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.2)(0.5)(0.7)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)TotalCapacity(GW)9969781,0181,0791,144TotalCapacity(GW)(0.2)(2.3)(4.5)(5.1)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)**14­13**Table14.4.18GSFLExistingTechnologies,Shift,HighLightingExpertiseScenario(TSL5)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,4881,6251,7671,906CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(33.7)(36.1)(35.4)(33.8)(33.8)(33.8)(33.8)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4691,5351,6121,714ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(1.8)(5.1)(7.9)(7.8)(7.8)(7.8)(7.8)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0531,0481,0371,028IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(4.4)(3.6)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1412,3032,5072,750CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.2)(10.5)(20.7)(25.1)(5.9)(5.9)(5.9)(5.9)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5050535556PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(0.5)(0.7)(0.6)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)821778696634597NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.4(30.5)(20.4)(9.8)(17.2)(17.2)(17.2)(17.2)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807866902911NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(2.6)(10.7)(20.1)(20.1)(20.1)(20.1)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)424468520541556RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.5)(0.7)(2.9)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2444,4374,6384,870TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.3)(42.2)(47.3)(49.1)(46.8)(46.8)(46.8)(46.8)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435416435466502FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(1.7)(3.1)(3.9)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192196205209CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.2)(0.7)(0.5)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.0(0.2)0.20.50.10.10.10.1NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111114114NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.3)(1.5)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133138145149153RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.2)(0.4)(0.7)(0.6)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)TotalCapacity(GW)9969781,0181,0781,143TotalCapacity(GW)(0.2)(2.5)(4.6)(5.9)(5.4)(5.4)(5.4)(5.4)Table14.4.19GSFLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,MarketSegmentBasedLightingExpertiseScenario(TSL1)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5191,6591,8001,936CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(2.4)(2.2)(2.2)(2.9)(2.9)(2.9)(2.9)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4711,5391,6191,720ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(0.3)(0.9)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0571,0511,0391,029IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(0.7)(1.1)(1.7)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1502,3222,5292,753CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(1.0)(2.6)(3.2)(2.0)(2.0)(2.0)(2.0)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820806715643613NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.0(2.4)(1.3)(0.6)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807868911929NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(0.2)(1.3)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469522543558RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(0.1)(0.3)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2834,4804,6814,910TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(3.5)(4.4)(5.5)(6.6)(6.6)(6.6)(6.6)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438470503FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.3)(0.4)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.00.00.10.20.10.10.10.1NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111116116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145150154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0221,0841,148TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.2)(0.4)(0.5)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)**14­14**Table14.4.20GSFLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,MarketSegmentBasedLightingExpertiseScenario(TSL2)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5171,6581,7991,936CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(4.4)(3.3)(2.8)(3.3)(3.3)(3.3)(3.3)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4711,5391,6181,720ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(0.3)(1.1)(1.9)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0561,0501,0391,029IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(1.7)(1.8)(2.0)(2.3)(2.3)(2.3)(2.3)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1502,3212,5282,754CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(1.4)(2.7)(3.5)(1.5)(1.5)(1.5)(1.5)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)820803713643612NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.1(5.0)(2.9)(0.9)(2.4)(2.4)(2.4)(2.4)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807868910928NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(0.4)(1.9)(3.1)(3.1)(3.1)(3.1)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425469522543558RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(0.3)(0.5)(0.5)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2794,4784,6804,909TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(6.7)(6.5)(7.0)(7.7)(7.7)(7.7)(7.7)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438470503FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.2)(0.4)(0.5)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.0(0.0)0.10.20.10.10.10.1NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111116116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.0)(0.3)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145150154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0221,0841,148TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.4)(0.5)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)Table14.4.21GSFLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,MarketSegmentBasedLightingExpertiseScenario(TSL3)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5141,6551,7961,934CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(7.0)(5.8)(5.6)(5.5)(5.5)(5.5)(5.5)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4701,5361,6151,716ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(1.4)(3.4)(5.2)(5.2)(5.2)(5.2)(5.2)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0561,0501,0391,029IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(1.6)(1.7)(1.9)(2.1)(2.1)(2.1)(2.1)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1492,3182,5252,752CoalGeneration(TWh)0.0(2.3)(6.5)(6.6)(3.2)(3.2)(3.2)(3.2)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)821801713642611NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.3(7.7)(3.4)(1.8)(3.6)(3.6)(3.6)(3.6)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807867909926NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(0.6)(3.6)(5.1)(5.1)(5.1)(5.1)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)424468522542557RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.3)(0.4)(0.8)(1.0)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2764,4734,6734,903TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(10.5)(11.5)(13.2)(13.3)(13.3)(13.3)(13.3)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435418438470503FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.3)(0.7)(0.8)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.0)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131143165CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.00.00.20.50.30.30.30.3NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111115116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.1)(0.5)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145149154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0221,0831,148TotalCapacity(GW)(0.1)(0.5)(0.9)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)**14­15**Table14.4.22GSFLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,MarketSegmentBasedLightingExpertiseScenario(TSL4)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5091,6521,7941,931CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(11.9)(9.1)(7.9)(8.0)(8.0)(8.0)(8.0)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4701,5361,6141,716ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(1.5)(4.1)(5.9)(5.9)(5.9)(5.9)(5.9)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0541,0481,0381,028IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(4.1)(3.4)(2.9)(2.9)(2.9)(2.9)(2.9)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1472,3152,5232,753CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(3.7)(9.0)(8.9)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)(2.2)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535557PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)821794710641609NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.4(13.8)(6.1)(2.4)(5.4)(5.4)(5.4)(5.4)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807867908923NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(1.0)(4.6)(7.8)(7.8)(7.8)(7.8)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)424468521542557RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.4)(0.8)(1.2)(1.3)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)(1.6)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2684,4674,6694,899TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(18.5)(17.5)(17.5)(17.3)(17.3)(17.3)(17.3)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435417437469502FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.5)(1.3)(1.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.0)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129132144166CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.0(0.1)0.30.70.60.60.60.6NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111115116NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.1)(0.6)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139145149154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.1)(0.2)(0.4)(0.3)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)TotalCapacity(GW)9969801,0211,0831,147TotalCapacity(GW)(0.1)(0.9)(1.6)(1.5)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)Table14.4.23GSFLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,MarketSegmentBasedLightingExpertiseScenario(TSL5)UtilityImpactAnalysis­ NEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008ReferenceExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh)1,3861,5061,6471,7891,927CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(15.0)(13.5)(13.2)(12.2)(12.2)(12.2)(12.2)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4501,4701,5361,6141,716ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(1.4)(3.9)(5.7)(5.7)(5.7)(5.7)(5.7)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0271,0541,0481,0381,028IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(4.1)(3.3)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1462,3132,5192,752CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(4.8)(11.5)(12.5)(3.2)(3.2)(3.2)(3.2)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051535556PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)821792709641608NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.4(15.8)(7.3)(2.5)(6.5)(6.5)(6.5)(6.5)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807867906922NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.00.0(1.2)(6.0)(9.3)(9.3)(9.3)(9.3)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)424468521542556RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.5)(0.7)(1.5)(1.4)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1254,2654,4624,6644,895TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(21.6)(21.8)(22.7)(21.3)(21.3)(21.3)(21.3)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435417437469502FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.7)(1.5)(1.7)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192197205210CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)-(0.0)(0.1)(0.0)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)137129131144166CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW)0.0(0.0)0.30.70.60.60.60.6NuclearCapacity(GW)101102111115115NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.2)(0.8)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133138145149154RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.1)(0.3)(0.5)(0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)TotalCapacity(GW)9969791,0211,0821,147TotalCapacity(GW)(0.2)(1.1)(2.0)(2.2)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)**14­16**)W)))W))Table14.4.24IRLExistingTechnologies,Shift,ProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL4)HighEconomicGrowthCaseNEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008HighEconomicGrowthCaseExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh1,3931,5431,7101,8802,051CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(3.1)(3.3)(3.3)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)(3.4)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4551,4921,5831,6861,819ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(3.6)(4.1)(4.6)(5.0)(5.0)(5.0)(5.0)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0471,1141,1381,1701,203IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)0.20.10.10.20.20.20.2GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,2022,5052,7553,037CoalGeneration(TWh)0.0(1.7)(5.1)(4.4)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)(2.8)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051555759PetroleumGeneration(TWh)0.0(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)853855689624577NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.1(4.9)(2.2)(2.0)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)NuclearGeneration(TWh)7978078889691,053NuclearGeneration(TWh)-(0.0)(0.0)(1.2)(3.3)(3.3)(3.3)(3.3)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425474530562580RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(0.3)(0.3)(0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1584,3904,6674,9685,306TotalGeneration(TWh)0.0(6.8)(7.7)(8.1)(8.5)(8.5)(8.5)(8.5)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435431468509554FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.3)(0.6)(0.4)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190193199212216CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(G137132134146172CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW0.0(0.0)0.10.20.30.30.30.3NuclearCapacity(GW)101102114123132NuclearCapacity(GW)---(0.2)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139147154158RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)TotalCapacity(GW)9969961,0611,1441,234TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.3)(0.7)(0.6)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)Table14.4.25IRLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,NoProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL4)HighEconomicGrowthCaseNEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008HighEconomicGrowthCaseExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh1,3931,5461,7141,8842,055CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(0.7)0.00.0(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4551,4921,5831,6871,819ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(3.2)(3.7)(3.8)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0471,1141,1381,1701,203IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)0.10.10.10.20.20.20.2GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,2032,5072,7573,038CoalGeneration(TWh)0.0(0.9)(2.7)(2.3)(1.5)(1.5)(1.5)(1.5)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051555759PetroleumGeneration(TWh)0.0(0.0)(0.1)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)853857690626578NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.1(3.0)(1.0)(0.7)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)NuclearGeneration(TWh)7978078889701,054NuclearGeneration(TWh)--0.0(0.5)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425475530563581RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1584,3924,6704,9725,310TotalGeneration(TWh)0.0(4.0)(3.8)(3.8)(4.4)(4.4)(4.4)(4.4)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435431468509554FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)0.0(0.1)(0.2)(0.1)0.00.00.00.0CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190193199213216CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(G137132134146173CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW0.00.00.10.30.30.30.30.3NuclearCapacity(GW)101102114123133NuclearCapacity(GW)---(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139147154158RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)TotalCapacity(GW)9969971,0611,1441,234TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)0.0(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)**14­17**)W)))W))Table14.4.26GSFLExistingTechnologies,Shift,ProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL3)HighEconomicGrowthCaseNEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008HighEconomicGrowthCaseExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh1,3931,5331,6971,8652,036CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(13.3)(16.3)(18.6)(19.2)(19.2)(19.2)(19.2)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4551,4931,5821,6841,817ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(1.9)(4.7)(6.8)(6.8)(6.8)(6.8)(6.8)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0471,1111,1341,1661,198IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(2.2)(3.2)(3.7)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1972,4902,7403,021CoalGeneration(TWh)0.1(6.3)(20.4)(19.7)(18.8)(18.8)(18.8)(18.8)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051555759PetroleumGeneration(TWh)0.0(0.1)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)853849687619573NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.3(11.1)(3.8)(7.0)(5.1)(5.1)(5.1)(5.1)NuclearGeneration(TWh)7978078889681,051NuclearGeneration(TWh)-(0.0)(0.0)(1.9)(5.5)(5.5)(5.5)(5.5)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425474529561579RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.3)(0.9)(1.1)(1.4)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1584,3784,6494,9465,283TotalGeneration(TWh)0.1(18.4)(25.6)(30.3)(31.6)(31.6)(31.6)(31.6)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435430466506552FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(1.2)(2.8)(2.5)(2.7)(2.7)(2.7)(2.7)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190193198212216CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)(0.1)(0.1)(0.4)(1.0)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(G137132134146173CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW0.1(0.1)0.30.70.80.80.80.8NuclearCapacity(GW)101102114123132NuclearCapacity(GW)---(0.2)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139146154158RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)TotalCapacity(GW)9969951,0581,1411,231TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)(1.5)(3.1)(3.3)(3.7)(3.7)(3.7)(3.7)Table14.4.27GSFLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,NoProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL3)HighEconomicGrowthCaseNEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008HighEconomicGrowthCaseExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh1,3931,5391,7081,8782,049CommercialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(7.2)(6.0)(5.7)(5.8)(5.8)(5.8)(5.8)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4551,4941,5841,6861,818ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(1.4)(3.5)(5.2)(5.2)(5.2)(5.2)(5.2)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0471,1121,1361,1671,200IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(1.6)(2.0)(2.2)(2.5)(2.5)(2.5)(2.5)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,2012,5022,7523,033CoalGeneration(TWh)0.1(3.0)(7.9)(8.0)(6.3)(6.3)(6.3)(6.3)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5051555759PetroleumGeneration(TWh)0.0(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)853852687623576NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.2(7.3)(3.5)(3.4)(2.9)(2.9)(2.9)(2.9)NuclearGeneration(TWh)7978078889691,053NuclearGeneration(TWh)-(0.0)-(1.2)(3.6)(3.6)(3.6)(3.6)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)425474530562580RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.2)(0.4)(0.6)(0.8)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)(1.0)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,1584,3864,6624,9625,301TotalGeneration(TWh)0.1(10.8)(12.1)(13.5)(14.1)(14.1)(14.1)(14.1)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)435430468508554FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.5)(1.0)(0.9)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)(0.7)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190193199212216CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(G137132134146172CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW0.0(0.1)0.10.30.30.30.30.3NuclearCapacity(GW)101102114123132NuclearCapacity(GW)---(0.2)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)RenewablesCapacity(GW)133139146154158RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)TotalCapacity(GW)9969961,0601,1431,233TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.7)(1.2)(1.2)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)(1.3)**14­18**))))))))Table14.4.28IRLExistingTechnologies,Shift,ProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL4)LowEconomicGrowthCaseNEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008LowEconomicGrowthCaseExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh1,3751,4891,6051,7191,826CommercialElectricitySales(TWh(0.0)(3.0)(3.1)(3.2)(3.2)(3.2)(3.2)(3.2)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4441,4451,4911,5461,614ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(3.5)(4.0)(4.6)(5.0)(5.0)(5.0)(5.0)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0081,004973921862IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.00.30.20.20.10.10.10.1GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0352,1182,2042,3232,493CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(1.1)(2.2)(3.9)(4.7)(4.7)(4.7)(4.7)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5050515254PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)790731681643605NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.3(4.8)(4.0)(2.9)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807853859836NuclearGeneration(TWh)-(0.0)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)417462506523532RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.3)(0.5)(0.5)(0.6)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,0884,1684,2964,4014,520TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(6.5)(7.2)(8.0)(8.4)(8.4)(8.4)(8.4)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)434410419436461FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.2)(0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192194199203CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)--(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW137125129139150CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW(0.0)0.00.00.20.40.40.40.4NuclearCapacity(GW)101102109109104NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)RenewablesCapacity(GW)132136141144146RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)TotalCapacity(GW)9949659911,0281,064TotalCapacity(GW)(0.1)(0.2)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)Table14.4.29IRLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,NoProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL4)LowEconomicGrowthCaseNEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008LowEconomicGrowthCaseExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh1,3751,4911,6091,7231,829CommercialElectricitySales(TWh(0.0)(0.7)0.10.0(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4441,4451,4921,5471,615ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(3.2)(3.7)(3.7)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)(4.2)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0081,003973920862IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.00.20.10.10.10.10.10.1GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0352,1192,2052,3252,495CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.8)(1.2)(1.9)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5050515354PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)790733684645607NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.1(2.9)(1.9)(1.3)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)(1.1)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807853859836NuclearGeneration(TWh)-(0.0)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)417463507523532RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,0884,1714,2994,4054,524TotalGeneration(TWh)0.0(3.9)(3.6)(3.8)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)(4.3)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)434410419437461FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192194199203CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)--(0.0)0.0(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW137125129139150CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW0.00.10.10.20.40.40.40.4NuclearCapacity(GW)101102109109104NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)(0.0)RenewablesCapacity(GW)132136141144146RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)TotalCapacity(GW)9949669921,0281,065TotalCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.0)(0.1)0.00.10.10.10.1**14­19**))))))))Table14.4.30GSFLExistingTechnologies,Shift,ProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL3)LowEconomicGrowthCaseNEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008LowEconomicGrowthCaseExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh1,3751,4791,5931,7051,810CommercialElectricitySales(TWh(0.0)(13.0)(15.4)(18.2)(18.6)(18.6)(18.6)(18.6)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4441,4471,4911,5441,612ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(1.6)(4.2)(6.7)(6.9)(6.9)(6.9)(6.9)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0081,001970917857IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.1(1.8)(2.7)(3.4)(4.4)(4.4)(4.4)(4.4)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0342,1152,1972,3132,481CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.2)(4.1)(8.4)(13.7)(16.5)(16.5)(16.5)(16.5)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5050515254PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.1)(0.3)(0.4)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)791724676636599NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)1.2(11.3)(9.8)(10.2)(8.8)(8.8)(8.8)(8.8)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807850856833NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.0(0.0)(3.3)(3.8)(3.8)(3.8)(3.8)(3.8)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)417461505522531RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(1.0)(1.8)(1.5)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)(1.8)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,0884,1574,2794,3794,497TotalGeneration(TWh)0.0(17.3)(23.3)(29.8)(31.2)(31.2)(31.2)(31.2)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)434410419435459FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.3)(1.0)(1.6)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)(1.9)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192194199202CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)--(0.3)(0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW137125128139150CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW0.0(0.3)(0.2)0.30.70.70.70.7NuclearCapacity(GW)101102108108104NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)RenewablesCapacity(GW)131136140144146RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.3)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)(0.4)TotalCapacity(GW)9949659891,0251,062TotalCapacity(GW)(0.3)(0.9)(2.3)(2.5)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)(2.6)Table14.4.31GSFLEmergingTechnologies,Roll­up,NoProductSubstitutionScenario(TSL3)LowEconomicGrowthCaseNEMSBTResultsDifferenceFromAEO2008LowEconomicGrowthCaseExptrapolation2010201520202025203020102015202020252030203520402042ElectricitySalesElectricitySalesCommercialElectricitySales(TWh1,3751,4851,6031,7171,823CommercialElectricitySales(TWh(0.0)(7.0)(5.7)(5.4)(5.4)(5.4)(5.4)(5.4)ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)1,4441,4471,4921,5451,614ResidentialElectricitySales(TWh)(0.0)(1.3)(3.4)(5.1)(5.2)(5.2)(5.2)(5.2)IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)1,0081,002971918859IndustrialElectricitySales(TWh)0.0(1.4)(1.8)(2.0)(2.5)(2.5)(2.5)(2.5)GenerationGenerationCoalGeneration(TWh)2,0352,1172,2022,3212,490CoalGeneration(TWh)(0.1)(2.1)(3.5)(6.1)(7.1)(7.1)(7.1)(7.1)PetroleumGeneration(TWh)5050515254PetroleumGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)790728680642604NaturalGasGeneration(TWh)0.6(7.5)(5.6)(4.7)(4.0)(4.0)(4.0)(4.0)NuclearGeneration(TWh)797807852858835NuclearGeneration(TWh)0.0(0.0)(1.2)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)(1.4)RenewablesGeneration(TWh)417462506522532RenewablesGeneration(TWh)(0.5)(0.7)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)TotalGeneration(TWh)4,0884,1644,2914,3964,514TotalGeneration(TWh)(0.0)(10.3)(11.3)(13.3)(13.7)(13.7)(13.7)(13.7)CapacityCapacityFossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)434410419436461FossilFuelSteamCapacity(GW)(0.0)(0.2)(0.4)(0.7)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)190192194199203CombinedCycleCapacity(GW)--(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW137125129139150CombustionTurbinesCapacity(GW0.0(0.1)(0.1)0.20.50.50.50.5NuclearCapacity(GW)101102109109104NuclearCapacity(GW)--(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)RenewablesCapacity(GW)131136141144146RenewablesCapacity(GW)(0.1)(0.2)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)(0.2)TotalCapacity(GW)9949659911,0271,064TotalCapacity(GW)(0.1)(0.5)(0.9)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)**14­20**

# REFERENCES

**a** 

# U.S. **Department o**  **f Energy**  **­ Energy Information**  **Administration,** Annual Energy Outlook

2008 with Projections to 2030

**. 2008:**  **Washington, DC.**  **< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/**  **>**

**14­21**