### US. Department of Energy 

### Clothes Washer Shipments Spreadsheet Instructions 

# /?/G

June 1999

The Clothes Washer Shipments Spreadsheet is a spreadsheet used to estimate future clothes washers sales. The model uses clothes washer stock accounting together with a consumer decision model and clothes washer repair and breakdown information to forecast future clothes washer shipments under a variety ofpotential efficiency standards scenarios. The Welcome sheet is the main user interface for shipment forecast calculations. When the user clicks on the Welcome worksheet tab, a user interface appears. Different standard levels, and Bcenarios for price and features elasticity, and discount rates can be selected by the user. Basic Operating Instructions: 

### l. Once youhave downloaded the shipments spreadsheet file from the Web, openthe file using Excel. Atthe bottom, click on the tab for the Welcome worksheet. 2. The screen will display two tables ("Average Impact 2003 to 2030" and "Impact at 2003") and three charts ("Shipments ofClothes Washers", "Age ofRetired Clothes Washers",and "Mean Age ofClothes Washers."). (Use Excel's commands atthe top "View/Zoom" to change the size ofthe display to make it fit your monitor.) 3. To run different scenarios or standards cases, simply choose the desired options in the four list boxes which appear in the upper left ofthe worksheet. Click onthe arrow onthe right side ofeachboxto see the options. The first ofthe four boxes can be used to choose low, medium orhigh price elasticity. The second box can be used to separately choose the features elasticity for top-loading vs. front-loading clothes washers. The third can be used to choose the standard's efficiency level (e.g. 35% means a 35%reduction in energy consumption according to the DOE test procedure. See Technical Support Document (TSD) for details). The fourth list box is used to choose a price markup. The reference price markup is the average current markup for the indtistry as calculated in the Preliminary TSD ofOctober 1998. The high, medium, and low markup levels are derived from the Manufacturer Impact Analysis. 4. The spreadsheet is also designed so that the user can change the various internal parameters ofthe shipments forecast model. The specific values ofthe shipments model parameters are defined inthe Inputs worksheet. Those squares that represent input parameters are highlighted in yellow. The user may also change these parameters in order to investigate different model sensitivities.

1Using these steps the user can explore the model predictions and howthese vary depending onthe assumptions and model parameters that are used. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) ,What does the Clothes Washer Shipments Spreadsheet do? The clothes washer shipments model provides a forecast ofthe potential sales impacts of different clothes washer efficiency standards. The purpose ofthe model is to provide a 'best guess' offuture sales under various scenarios. The spreadsheet also contains estimated populations ofeach age category ofwashers for eachyear. Furthermore, estimates ofseveral categories ofpurchases are provided including early replacements, regularreplacements, and used clothes washer sales. 'What are the Worksheets in the Workbook? Inorderto simplify the organization and presentation ofthe spreadsheet calculations, the computations are segregated into separate worksheets. We refer the userto the shipments model documentation inthe Final Technical SupportDocument (TSD) for many ofthe details ofthe 4:;alculations. Belowwe describe in general terms the different functions ofthe individual :)preadsheets. Welcome This sheet is the main user page. Itprovides the list boxes where a user can select a range ofshipment forecast scenarios. The user can choose the standard level and a range ofelasticities with respect to washerprice and features. (An elasticity is the percent change in the output, in this case shipments, from a percent change in an input, such as washerprice.) The sales forecast is illustrated along with changes inmean clothes washer age and lifetime. Tables are presented which summarize tlie impacts relative to a baseline case calculated with medium values for the assumptions. This worksheet is protectedto help the user avoid erroneous modifications. The sheet canbe unprotected by going to Tools-> Protection-> Unprotect Sheet. Inputs The Inputs sheet containsthe detailed inputs to the shipments forecast model. These inputs include the elasticities and initial market shares for each ofthe market segments, the market discount rate, the definition ofthe high, medium, and low elasticity scenarios, and the estimation ofthe price, operating cost, and features changes for each ofthe standards levels. The nonhighlighted cells in this worksheet are protected to help the user avoid erroneous modifications. The sheet canbe unprotected by going to Tools-> Protection-> Unprotect Sheet.

2Shipment Forecast The ShipmentForecastworksheetprovides the detailed estimates and accounting of clothes washerpopulations. This sheet contains the core ofthe shipments calculation and the tables which specify the estimates ofeach type ofclothes washerpurchase. The tables in the sheetprovide accounting ofeachtype ofclothes washer ownership category, and each type of clothes washer purchase for each age category ofclothes washer. The detailed equations that are used to calculate the flow ofclothes washer stocks are presented inthe Final TSD. The total numbers ofclothes washer sales ofeach category are tabulated in summary tables in the cell range AG5 to AS88. Charts The Charts worksheetprovides additional illustrations ofthe model outputs. These illustrations include the proportion ofnewvs. used shipments, a chart ofthe different types of clothes washer sales (e.g., new homes, early replacements, regular retirements, non-owner conversions, and "extrarepair" retirements) for bothnew and used shipments (inunits shipped), and a plot ofestimated gross annual sales ofnewmachines (in dollars). Energy Price This worksheetprovides input data ofthe forecasted energy prices and income. The energy.prices are described in the Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook (see URL http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo99/homepage.html ). MS New Homes Here we provide the market share calculation for the newhousing market. A logit probability ofpurchase model estimates howpurchaseprobabilities change as a function ofprice, operating cost savings, and features changes. Details ofthe model are explained in the Final Ti::chnical Support Document. MS Early Replace Here weprovide the market share calculation for the early replacement market based on the logit probability ofpurchase model, and an initial probability ofpurchase that is a linear function ofclothes washer age. MS non-owner This sheetprovides the market share calculation for the non-owners who purchase clothes washers and become new clothes washer owners.



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### MS New vs Used Here weprovide the market share calculation for the consumer choosing between purchasing a new or a used washer. 

### MS Replace This worksheet calculates the probability ofreplacement vs. repair as a function of e:conomic decision parameters for eachyear. The annual probability ofreplacement is calculated for each age category ofclothes washer. 

### Retirement Function The worksheet shows the fraction ofwashers that are expectedto retire as a function of years since the washer was purchasednew. (Repairs may extendthe life ofthe washer, and are accounted for in the sheet "ShipmentForecasts.")



### lflow does the user operate the spreadsheet? The user operates the spreadsheet by going to the Welcome worksheet and choosing the parameters for the scenarios ofinterest. These parameters include whetherthe values ofthe elasticities are high, medium, or low, and one of 9 possible standard levels. The results will be displayed inthe chart onthe Welcome worksheet and in the tables which detail changes in sales, shipments, washer age, repairrate, and replacement rate for the early replacement market.



### 'What kind ofoutput does the spreadsheet generate? The spreadsheetprovides output in both charts, summary statistics, and tables. General output--including a plot ofthe shipments forecast and tables summarizing potential standards impacts--are presented inthe Welcome worksheet. Additional charts illustrating a more detailed breakdown ofshipments and gross sales impacts are located inthe Charts worksheet. Meanwhile the detailed tables ofthe different types ofshipments and the populations ofdifferent types of stocks for different clothes washer age categories for each year are presented inthe Shipment Forecast worksheet. 

### How does a user change the model parameters? The user can change the individual model parameter values by going to the Inputs worksheet and changing the different model parameters highlighted inyellow. Note, that ifone makes changes inparameters on the input sheet, this likely will affect the historical base case. To obtain accurate forecasts, the user may need to recalibrate the fit to historical databy selecting a

4value for the Coefficient Scaling Parameter in cell E25 inthe Inputs worksheet that minimizes the root mean square (RMS) deviation with historical data that ispresented inthe neighboring cell, E26.

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