Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9 signed the following proposed rule on May 5, 2014, and 

EPA is submitting it for publication in the Federal Register (FR). While we have taken steps to ensure the accuracy 

of this Internet version of the proposed rule, it is not the official version of the proposed rule for purposes of public 

comment. Please refer to the official version in a forthcoming FR publication, which will appear on the Government 

Printing Office's FDsys website (http://fdsys.gpo.gov/fdsys/search/home.action) and on Regulations.gov 

(http://www.regulations.gov) in Docket No. EPA-R09-OAR-2014-0185

6560–50–P 

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA–R09–OAR–2014–0185; FRL–]

Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; California; 

South Coast 1-Hour and 8-Hour Ozone

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 

ACTION: Proposed rule.

SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing 

to approve the portions of a State implementation plan (SIP) 

revision submitted by the State of California on February 13, 

2013 that relate to attainment of the 1-hour and 1997 8-hour 

ozone national ambient air quality standards in the Los AngelesSouth Coast area. Specifically, the EPA is proposing to approve 

the portions of the South Coast Air Quality Management 

District’s Final 2012 Air Quality Management Plan that update 

the approved control strategy for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard 

and that provide a demonstration of attainment of the 1-hour 

ozone standard by December 31, 2022. In proposing approval, EPA 

finds that an attainment date of December 31, 2022 is 

appropriate in light of the severity of the 1-hour ozone problem 

in the South Coast and, given the extent to which emissions 

sources in the South Coast have already been controlled, the 
This document is a prepublication version, signed by Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9 on 

May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

2

limited emissions remaining that can be regulated. EPA is 

proposing as part of this action to approve new commitments 

adopted by the South Coast Air Quality Management District, 

updated new technology measures, and a new commitment by the 

California Air Resources Board to submit contingency measures in 

2019 as necessary to meet the emissions reductions targets for 

2022 from implementation of new technology measures.

DATES: Any comments must arrive by [Insert date 30 days from the 

date of publication in the Federal Register].

ADDRESSES: Submit comments, identified by docket number EPA-R09-

OAR-2014-0185, by one of the following methods:

 Federal eRulemaking Portal: www.regulations.gov. Follow 

the on-line instructions.

 E-mail: tax.wienke@epa.gov.

 Mail or deliver: Wienke Tax, Office of Air Planning (AIR2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region IX, 75 

Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, CA 94105. 

Instructions: All comments will be included in the public docket 

without change and may be made available online at 

www.regulations.gov, including any personal information 

provided, unless the comment includes Confidential Business 

Information (CBI) or other information whose disclosure is 

restricted by statute. Information that you consider CBI or 
This document is a prepublication version, signed by Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9 on 

May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

3

otherwise protected should be clearly identified as such and 

should not be submitted through www.regulations.gov or e-mail. 

The www.regulations.gov website is an “anonymous access” system, 

and EPA will not know your identity or contact information 

unless you provide it in the body of your comment. If you send 

e-mail directly to EPA, your e-mail address will be 

automatically captured and included as part of the public 

comment. If EPA cannot read your comments due to technical 

difficulties and cannot contact you for clarification, EPA may 

not be able to consider your comment. 

Docket: The index to the docket for this action is available 

electronically on the www.regulations.gov website and in hard 

copy at EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, 

California, 94105. While all documents in the docket are listed 

in the index, some information may be publicly available only at 

the hard copy location (e.g., copyrighted material or large 

maps), and some may not be publicly available at either location 

(e.g., CBI). To inspect the hard copy materials, please schedule 

an appointment during normal business hours with the contact 

listed in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section below.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Wienke Tax, Air Planning Office 

(AIR-2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IX, (415) 

947-4192, tax.wienke@epa.gov.
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

4

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, “we,” “us” 

and “our” refer to the EPA.

Table of Contents

I. Background 

II. EPA’s Review of California’s Submittal

A. CAA Procedural and Administrative Requirements for SIP

Submittals

B. Attainment Demonstration Requirements

1. Emissions Inventories

a. Requirements for Emissions Inventories

b. Base Year and Future Baseline Emissions

Inventories in the 2012 AQMP

2. South Coast 1-Hour Ozone Plan Control Strategy

a. Requirements for Control Strategies and RACM 

Demonstrations

b. 2012 AQMP RACM Demonstration

c. 2012 AQMP Aggregate Emissions Reductions Commitments

d. CAA Section 182(e)(5) New or Improved Technology 

Measures

3. Applicable Attainment Date

4. Air Quality Modeling for the 2012 1-hour Ozone

Attainment Demonstration

a. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 1-Hour Ozone Air 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

5

Quality Modeling and EPA Guidance

b. 1-Hour Attainment Demonstration Modeling and Weight of 

Evidence

i. Modeling Approaches for the SCAQMD Attainment 

Demonstration

ii. Results of SCAQMD Modeling

c. EPA’s Evaluation of the Modeling Demonstration

III. Proposed Action and Request for Public Comment

IV. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

I. Background

Ground-level ozone is an oxidant that is formed from

photochemical reactions in the atmosphere between volatile

organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOX) in the 

presence of sunlight. These two pollutants, referred to as ozone 

precursors, are emitted by many types of pollution sources 

including on-road motor vehicles (cars, trucks, and buses), 

nonroad vehicles and engines, power plants and industrial 

facilities, and smaller area sources such as lawn and garden 

equipment and paints.

Under section 109 of the Clean Air Act (CAA or Act), EPA 

promulgates national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS or 

standards) for pervasive air pollutants, such as ozone. The 

NAAQS are concentration levels that, the attainment and 
This document is a prepublication version, signed by Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9 on 

May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

6

maintenance of which, EPA has determined to be requisite to 

protect public health and welfare. In 1979, EPA established the

1-hour ozone NAAQS of 0.12 parts per million (ppm).1 Section 110 

of the CAA requires States to develop and submit state 

implementation plans (SIPs) to implement, maintain, and enforce 

the NAAQS.

Under the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1977, EPA designated 

all areas of the country as “nonattainment,” “attainment,” or 

“unclassifiable” with respect to each NAAQS, and in so doing, 

designated the South Coast2 as a nonattainment area for 

photochemical oxidant (later ozone). See 43 FR 8962 (March 3, 

1978). States with nonattainment areas are required to submit 

revisions to their SIPs that include a control strategy 

necessary to demonstrate how the area will attain the NAAQS, and 

EPA took action on a number of related SIP revisions submitted 

by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in the late 1970s 

and 1980s for the South Coast 1-hour ozone nonattainment area.3

 

1 See 44 FR 8202 (February 8, 1979).

2 The South Coast includes Orange County, the southwestern two-thirds of Los 

Angeles County, southwestern San Bernardino County, and western Riverside 

County (see 40 CFR 81.305).

3 Under California law, CARB is the state agency that is responsible for 

submitting SIPs and SIP revisions to EPA. CARB is also responsible for the 

regulation of mobile sources in California. Regional air quality management 

districts, such as the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD or 

“District”), are responsible for developing and adopting regional air quality 

plans and for regulating stationary sources. Once adopted, the plans 

developed by the regional air quality management districts are submitted to 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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However, by 1990, like many other areas throughout the country, 

the South Coast had not attained the 1-hour ozone standard, and 

under the CAA Amendments of 1990, the South Coast was classified 

as an “extreme” nonattainment area for the 1-hour ozone standard 

with an attainment deadline of November 15, 2010 (56 FR 56694, 

November 6, 1991) and was subject to additional SIP planning 

requirements, including a revised attainment demonstration.

In the wake of the classification of the South Coast 

nonattainment area as “extreme” for the 1-hour ozone standard, 

CARB submitted a number of SIP revisions for the South Coast 

that contained attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone 

standard and that relied on a combination of mobile source

control measures adopted by CARB and stationary source control 

measures adopted by SCAQMD. In connection with these submittals, 

EPA took the following actions:

 1994 South Coast Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) and 

related state strategy (“1994 AQMP”) – EPA approved the 1-

hour ozone attainment demonstration at 62 FR 1150 (January 

8, 1997);

 

CARB for adoption as part of the California SIP and then submitted to EPA for 

approval or disapproval under section 110 of the CAA.
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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 1997 AQMP, as revised in 1999 (“1997/1999 AQMP”) – EPA 

approved the revised 1-hour ozone demonstration at 65 FR 

18903 (April 10, 2000); and

 2003 AQMP and related state strategy (“2003 AQMP”) – EPA 

disapproved the revised 1-hour ozone attainment 

demonstration at 74 FR 10176 (March 10, 2009).

Each of these plans rely on a regulatory foundation of 

regulations adopted and implemented by the SCAQMD, CARB, and EPA 

for stationary and mobile sources, and also include commitments 

for new or more stringent regulations to achieve additional 

emissions reductions necessary for attainment. Each subsequent 

ozone plan then builds upon the foundation of the new or 

strengthened regulations that were adopted to support the 

previous plan. While the emissions reduction measures 

implemented under these South Coast ozone plans have been 

successful in reducing ozone concentrations in the South Coast,4

the South Coast failed to attain the 1-hour ozone standard by 

the applicable attainment date of 2010.5

 

4 For example, the annual number of days at any one monitoring station during 

which the 1-hour ozone standard was exceeded decreased from 103 days to 6 

days between 1990 and 2010 despite significant increases in population, 

employment and vehicle travel. The maximum 1-hour ozone concentration 

measured in the South Coast decreased from 0.33 ppm to 0.14 ppm over the same 

period.

5 76 FR 82133 (December 30, 2011).
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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Meanwhile, in 1997, EPA revised the NAAQS for ozone,

setting it at 0.08 ppm averaged over an 8-hour timeframe 

(referred to herein as the “1997 8-hour ozone standard”) to 

replace the existing 1-hour ozone standard of 0.12 ppm.6,7 In 

2004, EPA designated and classified the South Coast area as a 

“severe-17” nonattainment area for the 1997 8-hour ozone 

standard but later granted CARB’s request to reclassify the 

South Coast to “extreme” for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard.8 The 

corresponding applicable attainment year for the 1997 8-hour 

ozone standard in the South Coast is 2023. In response to this 

designation, CARB submitted the 2007 South Coast AQMP and 

related 2007 State Strategy (“2007 AQMP”), and EPA took the 

following action:

 2007 AQMP and 2007 State Strategy, as amended in 2009 and 

2011 - EPA approved the attainment demonstration for the 

1997 8-hour ozone standard at 77 FR 12674 (March 1, 2012), 

amended at 77 FR 70707 (November 27, 2012). 

 

6 62 FR 33856 (July 18, 1997). 

7 On March 27, 2008 (73 FR 16436), EPA lowered the 8-hour ozone standard to 

0.075 ppm (the 2008 8-hour ozone standard), and on May 21, 2012, EPA 

designated the South Coast as extreme nonattainment for the 2008 8-hour ozone 

standard (77 FR 30088). Today’s proposed action relates to an attainment 

demonstration for the 1-hour ozone standard that relies heavily on the 

control strategy approved for attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. 

Attainment demonstrations for the more stringent 2008 8-hour ozone standard

are not yet due. 

8 69 FR 23858 (April 30, 2004); 75 FR 24409 (May 5, 2010).
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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The 8-hour ozone control strategy in the 2007 AQMP builds 

upon the control strategy established under the previous 1-hour 

ozone plans. In connection with EPA’s 2012 approval of the South 

Coast attainment demonstration for the 1997 8-hour ozone 

standard in the 2007 AQMP, EPA approved a number of commitments 

by CARB and the SCAQMD as part of the California SIP, including 

commitments to bring certain defined measures before their 

respective boards by certain dates, commitments to achieve 

certain aggregate emissions reductions by certain milestone 

years, and a commitment to achieve emissions reductions from 

development and implementation of advanced control technologies

under CAA section 182(e)(5). Of particular relevance for this 

proposed action, EPA approved CARB’s commitment to achieve 

aggregate emissions reductions (beyond those already accounted 

for in the baseline) of 52 tons per day (tpd) of VOC and 144 tpd 

of NOx in the South Coast by 2020, and CARB’s commitment under 

section 182(e)(5) to achieve an additional 40 tpd of VOC and 241 

tpd of NOx in the South Coast by 2023.

As noted above, the last South Coast 1-hour ozone 

attainment demonstration on which EPA took action was the one 

included in the 2003 AQMP. The 2003 AQMP revised the 1-hour 

ozone attainment demonstration approved as part of the 1997/1999 

AQMP in light of new modeling results that showed that the 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

11

approved strategy from the 1997/1999 AQMP would not provide for 

attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard by the 2010 attainment 

deadline.

EPA disapproved the revised 1-hour ozone attainment 

demonstration in the 2003 AQMP because a number of state control 

measures upon which the demonstration relied had been withdrawn 

from consideration. EPA’s action on the 2003 AQMP was 

successfully challenged. In response to the court’s decision9 and 

in recognition of the fact that the South Coast had in fact 

failed to attain the 1-hour ozone standard by 2010, EPA issued a 

“SIP call” to California at 78 FR 889 (January 7, 2013) under 

CAA section 110(k)(5).10 In our final SIP call, we explained that 

states remain obligated to adopt and implement an attainment 

demonstration plan for the 1-hour ozone standard, 

notwithstanding the revocation of the 1-hour ozone standard in 

2005, under EPA’s “anti-backsliding” regulations governing the 

 

9 See Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d 584 (9th Cir. 

2011), reprinted as amended on January 27, 2012, 686 F.3d 668, further 

amended February 13, 2012.

10 Section 110(k)(5) provides, in relevant part, that: “Whenever [EPA] finds 

that the [SIP] for any area is substantially inadequate to attain or maintain 

the relevant [NAAQS}, ... , or to otherwise comply with any requirement of 

this chapter, [EPA] shall require the State to revise the plan as necessary 

to correct such inadequacies.”
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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transition from the 1-hour ozone standard to the 1997 8-hour 

ozone standard.11 See 40 CFR 51.905(a)(1)(i).

Under our SIP call, California was required to submit a SIP 

revision that meets the requirements of CAA section 

182(c)(2)(A)12 and that demonstrates attainment of the 1-hour 

ozone standard as expeditiously as practicable but no later than 

five years from the effective date of the final SIP call, absent 

justification for a later date, not to exceed 10 years beyond 

the effective date of the final SIP call. In considering whether 

a period longer than five years is warranted, EPA must consider 

the severity of the remaining nonattainment problem in the South 

Coast and the availability and feasibility of pollution control 

measures. See CAA section 172(a)(2).

The subject of today’s proposed action is a SIP revision 

that was submitted in part to respond to EPA’s SIP call for a 

revised attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone standard. 

 

11 Our finding of substantial inadequacy under CAA section 110(k)(5) for 

failure to “adopt and implement” a 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration is 

not intended as a finding of nonimplementation under CAA section 179(a)(4).

12 Under CAA section 182(c)(2)(A),the State must submit a revision to the SIP 

that includes a demonstration that the plan, as revised, will provide for 

attainment of the ozone NAAQS. The attainment demonstration must be based on 

photochemical grid modeling or any other analytical method determined by EPA 

to be at least as effective. Section 182(c)(2)(A) applies within ozone 

nonattainment areas classified as “serious,” but as a general matter, areas 

classified as “extreme” for the ozone nonattainment area, such as the South 

Coast, are subject to the requirements for lower-classified areas, such as 

those for “serious” areas, as well as those prescribed specifically for 

“extreme” areas.
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

13

As discussed later in this document, the submitted 1-hour ozone 

attainment demonstration relies heavily on the approved control 

strategy for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard that is discussed 

above in connection with EPA’s approval of the 2007 AQMP.

II. EPA’s Review of California’s Submittal

On December 7, 2012, SCAQMD adopted the Final 2012 Air 

Quality Management Plan (“2012 AQMP”), and later forwarded it to 

CARB for approval and submittal to EPA. The 2012 AQMP updates 

the approved 1997 8-hour ozone control strategy, includes 

attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone standard and the 

2006 PM2.5 standard, and includes demonstrations intended to 

address the vehicle-miles-traveled emissions offset requirements 

of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A)13 for the 1-hour ozone and 1997 8-

hour ozone standards. With respect to the 1997 8-hour ozone 

standard, in adopting the 2012 AQMP, the SCAQMD indicated that,

while the 2012 AQMP updates the approved 1997 8-hour ozone 

control strategy with new measures designed to reduce reliance 

on CAA section 182(e)(5) long-term (i.e., advanced control 

technologies) measures for VOC and NOx reductions, it is not 

intended as an update to other elements of the approved 8-hour 

 

13 Under CAA section 182(d)(1)(A), states with severe or extreme ozone 

nonattainment areas must submit SIP revisions that identify and adopt 

specific transportation control strategies and transportation control 

measures to offset any growth in emissions from growth in vehicle miles 

traveled or numbers of vehicle trips in such areas.
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

14

ozone control plan.14

On January 25, 2013, CARB adopted the 2012 AQMP as a 

revision to the California SIP. On February 13, 2013, CARB

submitted the 2012 AQMP to EPA along with the relevant CARB and 

SCAQMD board resolutions and other supporting material. In 

adopting the 2012 AQMP, CARB committed to develop, adopt, and 

submit contingency measures by 2019 if advanced control 

technology measures do not achieve planned reductions as 

required by CAA section 182(e)(5).15 As noted above, the 2012 

AQMP contains a number of SIP elements for a number of 

pollutants. Today, we are proposing action on the portions of 

the 2012 AQMP that update the approved 1997 8-hour ozone control 

strategy from the 2007 AQMP and that provide an attainment 

demonstration for the 1-hour ozone standard. Specifically, the 

relevant elements of the 2012 AQMP covered by our proposed 

action include:

 CARB’s resolution of adoption (Resolution 13-3);

 SCAQMD’s resolution of adoption (Resolution 12-19);

 The ozone-related portions of chapter 4 of the 2012 AQMP 

(“Control Strategy and Implementation”);

 Appendices IV-A (“District’s Stationary Source Control 

 

14 See SCAQMD Governing Board Resolution No. 12-19 (December 7, 2012).

15 See CARB Board Resolution No. 13-3 (January 25, 2013).
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

15

Measures”), IV-B (“Proposed Section 182(e)(5)

Implementation Measures”), and IV-C (“Regional 

Transportation Strategy and Control Measures”); and

 Appendix VII (“South Coast 2012 1-hour ozone attainment 

demonstration”), which includes 4 attachments, one of which 

includes a demonstration of reasonably available control 

measures (RACM).

In addition, EPA requested clarification of the commitments made 

by SCAQMD and CARB in connection with the 1-hour ozone 

attainment demonstration in the 2012 AQMP, and the two agencies 

responded with the following letters clarifying their respective 

commitments:

 Letter from Barry R. Wallerstein, D.Env, SCAQMD Executive 

Officer, to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA 

Region IX, May 1, 2014 (“Wallerstein Letter”); and

 Letter from Richard W. Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, to 

Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX, 

May 2, 2014 (“Corey Letter”).

For simplicity, in referring to the elements on which we are 

acting, we are using the term “2012 AQMP” even though we 

recognize that the 2012 AQMP includes other elements in addition 

to those covered in this proposed action.

The 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration includes base 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

16

year and future year emissions inventory estimates, a control 

strategy and RACM demonstrations, and an attainment 

demonstration based on photochemical modeling. The control 

strategy for the revised 1-hour ozone demonstration relies on 

the same SCAQMD measures referred to by SCAQMD as new measures 

that update the approved 1997 8-hour ozone control strategy.

A. CAA Procedural and Administrative Requirements for SIP 

Submittals

CAA sections 110(a)(1) and (2) and 110(l) require a state 

to provide reasonable public notice and opportunity for public 

hearing prior to the adoption and submittal of a SIP or SIP 

revision. To meet this requirement, every SIP submittal should 

include evidence that adequate public notice was given and a 

public hearing was held consistent with EPA’s implementing 

regulations in 40 CFR section 51.102.

The SCAQMD provided a public comment period and held a 

public hearing prior to its December 7, 2012 adoption of the 

2012 AQMP. CARB provided the required public notice and 

opportunity for public comment prior to its January 25, 2013 

public hearing on the 2012 AQMP. CARB’s February 13, 2013 SIP 

submittal package includes notices of the SCAQMD and CARB public 

hearings, as evidence that all hearings were properly noticed. 

We therefore find that CARB’s February 13, 2013 SIP revision
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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submittal meets the procedural requirements of CAA sections 

110(a) and 110(l).

B. Attainment Demonstration Requirements

CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) requires states with ozone 

nonattainment areas classified as serious, severe or extreme to 

submit plans that demonstrate attainment of the 1-hour ozone 

standard as expeditiously as practicable but no later than the 

outside date established in the CAA. The attainment 

demonstration should include technical analyses that locate and 

identify sources of emissions that are contributing to 

violations of the 1-hour ozone standard within the nonattainment 

area and adopted measures with schedules for implementation and 

other means and techniques necessary and appropriate for 

attainment. In order to determine whether the area has 

demonstrated attainment “as expeditiously as practicable,” the 

area must provide a demonstration that all RACM are implemented. 

CAA 172(c)(1). In addition, the “... attainment demonstration 

must be based on photochemical grid modeling or any other 

analytical method determined by the Administrator...to be at 

least as effective.” CAA section 182(c)(2)(A). 

1. Emissions Inventories 

a. Requirements for Emissions Inventories
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

18

Attainment demonstrations rely upon emissions inventories 

that reflect different scenarios, including existing conditions 

(“base year”) and future “baseline” conditions. The base year 

emission inventory must be a comprehensive, accurate, current 

inventory of actual emissions from all sources of the relevant 

pollutant. Future baseline emissions inventories must reflect 

the most recent population, employment, travel and congestion 

estimates for the area. In this context, “baseline” emissions 

represent an estimate of the emissions that would occur in an 

area if no additional controls other than those already adopted 

are implemented. 

b. Base Year and Future Baseline Emissions Inventories in the 

2012 AQMP

The 2012 AQMP includes a 2008 base year and a 2022 baseline 

emissions inventory for the South Coast 1-hour nonattainment 

area. Documentation for these inventories is found in appendix 

III (“Base and Future Year Emission Inventory”), and section 3 

of appendix VII, of the 2012 AQMP. The 2008 base year ozone 

precursor inventory provides the basis for the control measure 

analysis and the attainment demonstration in the South Coast 

2012 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration.

VOC and NOx emissions are grouped into two general 

categories, stationary sources and mobile sources. Stationary 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

19

sources can be further divided into “point” and “area” sources. 

Point sources typically refer to permitted facilities and have 

one or more identified and fixed pieces of equipment and 

emissions points. Permitted facilities are required to report 

their emissions to the SCAQMD Annual Emissions Reporting 

Program. Area sources consist of widespread and numerous smaller 

emission sources, such as small permitted facilities, 

households, and road dust. The mobile sources category can be 

divided into two major subcategories, “on-road” and “off-road” 

mobile sources. On-road mobile sources include light-duty 

automobiles, light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks, and 

motorcycles. Off-road mobile sources include aircraft, 

locomotives, construction equipment, mobile equipment, and 

recreational vehicles.

The emissions inventories in the 2012 AQMP were developed 

using data provided by CARB, the California Department of 

Transportation, and SCAG. These agencies collect data (industry 

growth factors, socio-economic projections, travel activity 

levels, emission factors, emission speciation profiles, and 

emissions) and developing methodologies (for example, model and 

demographic forecast improvements) used to generate 

comprehensive emissions inventories. CARB maintains statewide 

inventories in its California Emissions Inventory Development 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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and Reporting System (CEIDARS) and California Emission 

Forecasting and Planning Inventory (CEFIS).16

Area source inventories are developed by CARB and the 

District for approximately 400 area source categories. For the 

2008 base year inventory, a number of area source category 

emissions inventories used existing methodologies with updated 

activity data such as fuel or sales data. Both CARB and the 

District are continuously updating and improving emissions 

inventory methodologies; for this plan, five new categories were 

added to the inventory, other methodologies were refined, and 

some area source categories were expanded.17

CARB prepares on-road and most of the off-road inventories 

from its Emission FACtor (EMFAC) 2011 model and 2011 In-Use 

Fleet Off-Road models.18 Caltrans provides information on highway 

projects. SCAG uses these data to estimate and project vehicle 

miles travelled (VMT) and speeds. SCAG also provides 

socioeconomic projections and projections of transportation 

activity data for use in on-road inventory development.

Table 1 depicts a summary of the 2008 VOC and NOx emissions 

inventory for the South Coast 1-hour ozone nonattainment area as 

 

16 See 2012 AQMP, Appendix III.

17 See 2012 AQMP, Appendix III, pages III-1-5, III-1-11, and III-1-14-15.

18 EMFAC 2011 was approved by EPA for use in SIPs on March 6, 2013 (see 78 FR 

14533).
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21

presented in the 2012 AQMP. Emissions estimates in table 1 are 

broken down by the major source categories described above. 

Based on the inventory for 2008, stationary and area sources 

currently account for 40 percent of VOC emissions, and 10 

percent of the NOx emissions, in the South Coast while mobile 

sources account for 60 percent of the VOC emissions and 90 

percent of the NOx emissions.

Table 1. Summary of South Coast Air Basin 2008 VOC and NOx

Emissions Inventory (summer planning inventory, tpd)

Source Category VOC NOx

Fuel Combustion 14 41

Waste Disposal 12 2

Cleaning and Surface Coatings 43 0

Petroleum Production and Marketing 41 0

Industrial Processes 19 0

Solvent Processes 126 0

Miscellaneous Processes 9 44

Subtotal – Stationary and Area 

Sources 264 87

On-road Vehicles 213 426

Off-road Vehicles 162 208

Subtotal – Mobile Sources 375 634

Total – South Coast 639 721

Source: 2012 AQMP, appendix VII, table VII-3-1.

Table 2 presents a summary of future baseline emissions in 

the South Coast in 2022. In this instance, future baseline 
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22

emissions reflect SCAQMD regulations adopted as of June 2012 and 

CARB rules adopted by August 201119 as well as the latest 

forecasts of growth in population, employment, and vehicle 

travel. Generally, EPA will approve a State plan that takes 

emissions reduction credit for a control measure only where EPA 

has approved the measure as part of the SIP, or in the case of 

certain on-road and nonroad (or “off-road”) measures, where EPA 

has issued the related waiver of preemption or authorization 

under CAA section 209(b) or section 209(e). Thus, to take credit 

for the emissions reductions from newly-adopted or amended 

SCAQMD rules for stationary sources, the related rules must be 

approved by EPA into the SIP. 

Table 3 lists the SCAQMD regulations for which specific 

emissions reduction credit was taken in the future baseline 

emissions estimates for the 2012 AQMP. See 2012 AQMP, appendix 

III, table III-2-2B. As shown in table 3, EPA has approved all 

of these regulations into the SIP. Most of these regulations 

have been amended a number of times by SCAQMD, and, with three 

exceptions, EPA has approved the most recently amended versions 

of the regulations into the SIP. As to the three exceptions

(Rules 1146, 1146.1, and 1147), EPA anticipates taking final 

 

19 See 2012 AQMP, Appendix III, page III-1-1.
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23

action on the most recently amended versions of the regulations

prior to taking final action on the revised 1-hour ozone 

attainment demonstration. 

With respect to mobile sources, we have placed a table in 

the docket that shows, among other things, the CARB regulations 

adopted through August 2011. In general, CARB regulations 

adopted through August 2011 and included in the future baseline 

are approved into the SIP, waived or authorized and thus 

emissions reduction credit for them in the future baseline is 

warranted. For example, EPA approved CARB’s Truck and Bus Rule 

at 77 FR 20308 (April 4, 2012); EPA authorized CARB’s Cleaner 

In-Use Off-Road Equipment Regulation at 78 FR 58090 (September 

20, 2013); EPA authorized CARB’s At-Berth Regulation, which 

reduces emissions from diesel auxiliary engines on contained 

ships, passenger ships and refrigerated cargo ships while

berthing at a California port, at 76 FR 77515 (December 13, 

2011); and EPA waived preemption for CARB’s Truck Idling 

Regulation at 77 FR 9239 (February 16, 2012). EPA is 

anticipating final action on CARB’s amended Consumer Products

Regulation prior to taking final action on the revised 1-hour 

ozone attainment demonstration.

Table 2. Summary of South Coast Air Basin 2022 VOC and NOx

Emissions Inventory (summer planning inventory, tpd)
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Source Category VOC NOx

Fuel Combustion 14 28

Waste Disposal 14 2

Cleaning and Surface Coatings 55 0

Petroleum Production and Marketing 36 0

Industrial Processes 17 0

Solvent Processes 112 0

Miscellaneous Processes 9 40

Subtotal – Stationary and Area 

Sources 258 70

On-road Vehicles 73 131

Off-road Vehicles 109 137

Subtotal – Mobile Sources 182 267

Total – South Coast 440 337

Source: Interpolated for year 2022 from 2012 AQMP, Appendix III, tables B-4 

and B-5.

Emissions in table 2 are also broken down by the major 

source categories described above. A comparison between future 

baseline emissions in table 2 with the corresponding base year 

(2008) emissions in table 1 shows that, assuming current 

controls, there will be only modest changes in emissions from

stationary and area sources but substantial decreases in 

emissions from mobile sources. However, even with the 

substantial decrease in mobile sources emissions relative to 

2008, mobile sources will still account for 40 percent of the 

VOC, and 80 percent of the NOx, basin-wide inventory in 2022.
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25

Table 3. District Measures Included in the Future Year Baseline

Emissions

Rule Description

Date of SCAQMD 

Adoption or Most 

Recent Amendment

EPA Approval

(unless otherwise 

noted)

Rule 

1110.2

Emissions from Gaseousand Liquid-Fueled 

Internal Combustion 

Engines

February 1, 2008 74 FR 18995, 

April 27, 2009

Rule 1111 Reduction of NOx

Emissions from NaturalGas-Fired, Fan-Type 

Central Furnaces

November 6, 2009 75 FR 46845, 

August 4, 2010

Rule 1113 Architectural Coatings June 3, 2011 78 FR 18244, 

March 26, 2013

Rule 1118 Control of Emissions 

from Refinery Flares

November 4, 2005 72 FR 49196, 

August 28, 2007

Rule 1121 Control of Nitrogen 

Oxides from 

Residential-Type 

Natural-Gas-fired Water 

Waters

September 3, 2004 74 FR 20880, May 

6, 2009

Rule 

1133.2

Emissions Reductions 

from Co-Composting

Operations

January 10, 2003 69 FR 43518, July 

21, 2004

Rule 

1133.3

Emission Reductions 

from Greenwaste 

Composting Operations

July 8, 2011 77 FR 71129, 

November 29, 2012

Rule 1143 Consumer Paint Thinners 

and Multipurpose 

Solvents

December 3, 2010 76 FR 70888, 

November 16, 2011

Rule 1144 Metalworking Fluids and 

Direct Contact 

Lubricants

July 9, 2010 76 FR 70888, 

November 16, 2011

Rule 1146 Emissions of Oxides of

Nitrogen from 

Industrial, 

Institutional, and 

Commercial Boilers, 

Steam Generators and 

Process Heaters

September 5, 2008 Proposed limited 

approval / 

limited 

disapproval at 76 

FR 40303 (July 8, 

2011) 

Rule 

1146.1

Emissions of Oxides of 

Nitrogen from Small 

Industrial, 

Institutional, and 

Commercial Boilers, 

Steam Generators and 

Process Heaters

September 5, 2008 Proposed limited 

approval / 

limited 

disapproval at 76 

FR 40303 (July 8, 

2011) 

Rule 

1146.2

Emissions of Oxides of 

Nitrogen from Large 

Water Heaters and Small 

May 5, 2006 73 FR 74027, 

December 5, 2008
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26

Boilers and Process 

Heaters

Rule 1147 NOx Reductions from 

Miscellaneous Sources

September 9, 2011 December 5, 2008 

version of rule 

approved at 75 FR 

46845, August 4, 

2010

Rule 1149 Storage Tank and 

Pipeline Cleaning and 

Degassing

May 2, 2008 74 FR 67821, 

December 21, 2009

Rule 1151 Motor Vehicle and 

Mobile Equipment NonAssembly Line Coating

Operations

December 2, 2005 78 FR 58959, 

September 24, 

2013

Rule 1177 Liquefied Petroleum Gas

Transfer and Dispensing

June 1, 2012 79 FR 364, 

January 3, 2014

Rule 1178 Further Reductions of 

VOC Emissions from 

Storage Tanks at 

Petroleum Facilities

April 7, 2006 72 FR 49196, 

August 28, 2007

We have reviewed the emissions inventories developed for 

the 2012 South Coast 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration, and 

the inventory methodologies used by the SCAQMD for consistency 

with CAA requirements and EPA’s guidance. We find that the 2008 

base year inventory is a comprehensive, accurate, and current 

inventory of ozone precursor emissions in the South Coast 1-hour 

ozone nonattainment area, and that 2008 is an appropriate base 

year for the revised 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration, and 

that the future baseline emissions projections for 2022 reflect 

appropriate emissions calculation methods and the latest 

planning assumptions. Therefore, we find the base year and 

future baseline emissions inventories to be acceptable for the 

purposes of developing a 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration.

2. South Coast 1-Hour Ozone Plan Control Strategy
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27

a. Requirements for Control Strategies and RACM Demonstrations

EPA’s SIP call required California to submit a SIP revision 

that meets the requirements of CAA section 182(c)(2)(A), which 

requires a demonstration that the SIP, as revised, will provide 

for attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard by the applicable 

attainment date. 78 FR 889, at 890 (January 7, 2013). In this 

case, the applicable attainment date is prescribed by CAA 

section 172(a)(2)(A), which is the date by which attainment can 

be achieved as expeditiously as practicable, but no later than 

February 6, 2018 (five years from the effective date of the SIP 

call). However, EPA may extend the attainment date to the extent 

EPA determines appropriate, for a period of no greater than 

February 6, 2023 (ten years from the effective date of the SIP 

call), considering the severity of nonattainment and the 

availability and feasibility of pollution control measures. 

The 2012 AQMP includes a demonstration of attainment for 

the 1-hour ozone standard by December 31, 2022 and thus relies 

on an extension beyond the five-year deadline under CAA section 

172(a)(2)(A). In section II.B.3 of this document, we provide our 

rationale for proposing approval of the extension in the 

attainment date to December 31, 2022. Our proposed approval of 

December 31, 2022 as the applicable attainment date depends in 

part upon California’s showing that the 2012 AQMP provides for 
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28

implementation of all RACM as expeditiously as practicable 

(including such reductions in emissions from existing sources in 

the area as may be obtained through the adoption, at a minimum, 

of reasonably available control technology (RACT)). See CAA 

section 172(c)(1).

In addition to RACM, to meet the requirements of CAA 

section 182(c)(2)(A), a 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration 

must include other “enforceable emission limitations, and such 

other control measures, means or techniques * * *, as well as 

schedules and timetables for compliance, as may be necessary or 

appropriate to provide for attainment * * * by the applicable 

attainment date * * *.” CAA section 172(c)(6). The CAA allows 

ozone nonattainment areas classified as “extreme,” such as the 

South Coast, to include “provisions * * * which anticipate 

development of new control techniques or improvement of existing 

control technologies, * * * if the State demonstrates * * * that

—(A) such provisions are not necessary to achieve the 

incremental emission reductions required during the first 10 

years after the date of the enactment of the Clean Air Act 

Amendments of 1990; and (B) the State has submitted enforceable 

commitments to develop and adopt contingency measures to be 

implemented * * * if the anticipated technologies do not achieve 

planned reductions.” CAA section 182(e)(5). The measures 
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29

included in the plan that describe the mechanisms for developing 

and implementing new control techniques or improvements in

existing control technologies and achieving the planned 

emissions reductions are referred to as “new technology” 

measures.

The control strategy for the 1-hour ozone attainment 

demonstration in the 2012 AQMP relies on all three types of 

strategies to reduce basin-wide emissions to the extent 

necessary to demonstrate attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard 

(i.e., reduce emissions to 410 tpd of VOC and 150 tpd of NOx): 

implementation of RACM; other control measures, means or 

techniques; and new technology measures. In this case, the 

phrase, “other control measures, means, or techniques” refers to 

the commitments made by the SCAQMD and CARB to bring certain 

regulatory initiatives to their respective boards on a certain 

schedule and to meet certain aggregate emissions reductions in 

certain years. The overall control strategy and emissions 

reductions from the various components is presented in table 4.

Table 4. Summary of South Coast’s 1-hour Ozone Attainment 

Demonstration Control Strategy (Summer Planning Inventory (tpd))

Emissions Scenario VOC NOx

Year 2008 Base Yeara 593 754

Emission Reductions from Baseline Measures

153 419

Year 2022 Baseline 440 335

SCAQMD’s New Aggregate Emissions Reduction 

Commitment

6 11
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30

CARB’s Existing Aggregate Emissions Reduction 

Commitment 

7 24

New Technology Measures 17 150

Year 2022 With Fulfillment of Commitments 410 150

a The modeling runs that were used to demonstrate attainment of the 1-hour 

ozone standard in the 2012 AQMP were based on the base year (2008) summer 

planning inventories (see table 1 above) with adjustments made for weekly and 

daily temperature variations. See 2010 AQMP, appendix VII, page VII-51.

With respect to commitments, the 1-hour ozone attainment 

demonstration in the 2012 AQMP includes certain new commitments 

adopted by SCAQMD and relies on existing commitments by CARB 

that were approved by EPA through approval of the attainment 

demonstration for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the 2007 

AQMP. The “new technology” provision in the 2012 AQMP updates 

the corresponding provision in the 2007 AQMP by proving greater 

specificity in the description of the actions that are or will 

be taken to achieve emissions reductions from development or 

deployment of advanced control technologies or techniques. The 

focus of the “new technology” provisions is the mobile source 

category of emissions in light of the extent to which such 

sources contribute to the overall inventory of ozone precursors. 

b. 2012 AQMP RACM Demonstration

CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan 

“provide for the implementation of all reasonably available 

control measures as expeditiously as practicable (including such 

reductions in emissions from existing sources in the area as may 

be obtained through the adoption, at a minimum, of reasonably 
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31

available control technology), and shall provide for attainment 

of the national primary ambient air quality standards.” 

EPA has previously provided guidance interpreting the RACM 

requirement in the General Preamble at 1356020 and in a 

memorandum entitled “Guidance on Reasonably Available Control 

Measures (RACM) Requirements and Attainment Demonstration 

Submissions for the Ozone NAAQS,” John Seitz, November 30, 1999. 

(Seitz memo). In summary, EPA guidance provides that to address 

the requirement to adopt all RACM, states should consider all 

potentially reasonable control measures for source categories in 

the nonattainment area to determine whether they are reasonably 

available for implementation in that area and whether they 

would, if implemented individually or collectively, advance the 

area’s attainment date by one year or more. See Seitz memo and

General Preamble at 13560; see also “State Implementation Plans; 

General Preamble for Proposed Rulemaking on Approval of Plan 

Revisions for Nonattainment Areas,” 44 FR 20372 (April 4, 1979) 

and Memorandum dated December 14, 2000, from John S. Seitz, 

Director, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, 

 

20 The “General Preamble for the Implementation of Title I of the Clean Air 

Act Amendments of 1990,” published at 57 FR 13498 on April 16, 1992,

describes EPA’s preliminary view on how we would interpret various SIP 

planning provisions in title I of the CAA as amended in 1990, including those 

planning provisions applicable to the 1-hour ozone standard.
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32

“Additional Submission on RACM from States with Severe One-Hour 

Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs.” In the following paragraphs, we 

discuss each element of the control strategy and provide a 

rationale for why we find it acceptable.

First, as noted above, EPA approved the 2007 AQMP for the 

1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS in 2012. As part of that action, EPA 

approved the related RACM demonstration. See 77 FR 12674, at 

12694 (March 1, 2012). In so doing, we approved the individual 

stationary-source RACM demonstration from SCAQMD, the 

transportation-related RACM demonstration from SCAG, and the 

mobile and area source RACM demonstration from CARB. See 76 FR 

57872, at 57877-57881 (September 16, 2011). 

To update the RACM demonstration for the 2012 AQMP, the 

SCAQMD followed a similar process as it had used for the 2007 

AQMP. That is, the SCAQMD conducted a process to identify RACM 

for the South Coast that involved public meetings to solicit 

input, evaluation of EPA’s suggested RACM, and evaluation of 

other air agencies’ regulations. See 2012 AQMP, appendix VII, 

attachment 4. As part of this process, the SCAQMD evaluated

measures implemented in other nonattainment areas based on the 

severity of the nonattainment situation as well as attainment 

dates (including the San Joaquin Valley, the San Francisco Bay 

Area, Ventura, Dallas-Fort Worth, the New York Metro area, and 
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33

the Houston-Galveston area) and measures identified by the Lake 

Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO). The SCAQMD also held 

meetings with CARB, technical experts, local government 

representatives, and the public during development of the 2012

AQMP, and sponsored an air quality technology symposium in 

September of 2011, which generated additional potential control 

measures. In addition, the SCAQMD reevaluated existing SIPapproved SCAQMD rules and regulations. 

From the set of identified potential controls, the SCAQMD 

then screened the identified measures and rejected those that

would not individually or collectively advance attainment in the 

area, had already been adopted as rules, or were in the process 

of being adopted. The remaining measures were evaluated taking 

into account baseline inventories, available control 

technologies, and potential emission reductions as well as 

whether the measure could be implemented on a schedule that 

would advance attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard by at 

least a year, assuming a 2022 attainment deadline. In addition, 

to capture all improvements in innovative control technologies 

and identify areas for improvement in its regulations, SCAQMD

staff reevaluated all the SCAQMD’s source-specific rules and 

regulations and compared these requirements to more than 100 

rules that had recently been adopted in four other California 
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34

air districts (San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento, Ventura, and San 

Francisco Bay Area).21

Based on its RACM analysis summarized above, SCAQMD 

concluded that, in general, its existing rules and regulations 

are equivalent to, or more stringent than, other Districts’ 

rules. In the few areas where this was not the case, SCAQMD 

staff have developed one or more control measures for inclusion 

in the 2012 AQMP. In adopting the 2012 AQMP, the SCAQMD

committed to develop, adopt, submit and implement 15 new 

measures, including measures at least as stringent as those 

identified in other California districts’ SIPs, and several

innovative measures. Table 5 lists these measures along with the 

related adoption and implementation date, and estimated 

emissions reductions. For a detailed description of the measures 

to which the SCAQMD has committed, please see appendix VI-A of 

the 2012 AQMP.

Table 5. District Control Measures in 2012 AQMP 1-Hour Ozone 

Attainment Demonstration

NUMBER AND TITLE ADOPTION

IMPLEMENTATION 

PERIOD

REDUCTION (tons 

per day (tpd)) by 

2023

VOC NOx

CTS-01 - Further VOC 

Reductions from 

Architectural Coatings 

(Rule 1113) 

2015 -

2016

2018 – 2020 2-4

CTS-02 - Further Emission 

Reduction from 

Miscellaneous Coatings, 

2013 -

2016

2015 - 2018 1-2

 

21 2012 AQMP, appendix VII, attachment 4, page VII-10.
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35

Adhesives, Solvents and 

Lubricants 

CTS-03 - Further VOC 

Reductions from Mold 

Release Products 

2014 2016 0.8-2

CMB-01 - Further NOx

Reductions from RECLAIM 

2015 2020 3-5

CMB-02 - NOx Reductions 

from Biogas Flares 

2015 Beginning 2017 TBD

CMB-03 - Reductions from 

Commercial Space Heating 

Phase I –

2014 (Tech 

Assessment

), Phase 

II - 2016

Beginning 2018 0.18

FUG-01 - VOC Reductions 

from Vacuum Trucks 

2014 2016 1

FUG-02 - Emission 

Reduction from LPG 

Transfer and Dispensing –

Phase II

2015 2017 1-2

FUG-03 - Further 

Reductions from Fugitive 

VOC Emissions 

2015 -

2016

2017 - 2018 1-2

MCS-01 – Application of 

All Feasible Measures

Ongoing Ongoing TBD TBD

MCS-02 - Further Emission 

Reductions from Green 

waste Processing (Chipping 

and Grinding Operations 

not associated with 

composting) 

2015 2016 1

MCS-03 – Improved Startup, Shutdown and 

Turnaround Procedures

Phase I –

2012 (Tech 

Assessment

), Phase 

II - TBD

Phase I – 2013 

(Tech 

Assessment), 

Phase II - TBD

TBD TBD

INC-01 – Economic 

Incentive Programs to 

Adopt Zero and Near-Zero 

Technologies 

2014 Within 12 

months after 

funding 

availability

TBD

INC-02 – Expedited 

Permitting and CEQA 

Preparation Facilitating 

the Manufacturing of Zero 

and Near-Zero Technologies

2014-2015 Beginning 2015 N/A N/A

EDU-01 – Further Criteria 

Pollutant Reductions from 

Education, Outreach and 

Incentives

Ongoing Ongoing N/A N/A

Source: 2012 AQMP, table 4-4. Note: TBD = to be determined once the specific 

inventory and control approach for the measure are identified. N/A = not 

applicable given nature of the measure.
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36

More specifically, the SCAQMD has committed to develop, 

adopt, submit and implement the 15 new measures listed in table 

5 to achieve, in aggregate, emission reductions of 5.8 tpd of 

VOC and 10.7 tpd of NOx by January 1, 2022 unless these measures 

or a portion thereof are found infeasible and substitute 

measures that can achieve equivalent reductions in the same 

implementation timeframes are adopted.22 The 2012 AQMP describes 

a process for public review of findings of feasibility and the 

related measure substitution.

As to the few remaining measures that the SCAQMD rejected 

from its RACM analysis, the SCAQMD determined that these 

measures would not advance the attainment date due to the 

insignificant or unquantifiable emissions reductions they would 

potentially generate. See 2012 AQMP, appendix VII, attachment 2, 

page VII-10. Based on our review of the SCAQMD’s latest RACM 

review process and the SCAQMD’s proposed commitment to new 

measures (listed in table 5), we find that the 2012 AQMP 

demonstrates RACM for stationary sources in the South Coast. 

With respect to transportation sources, SCAG’s RACM 

analysis focused on transportation control measures (TCMs). TCMs 

are, in general, measures designed to reduce emissions from on-

 

22 See 2012 AQMP, pages 4-41 through 4-46, and Wallerstein Letter. 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

37

road motor vehicles through reductions in vehicle miles traveled 

or traffic congestion. SCAG’s analysis is described in appendix 

VII, pages VII-20 to VII-23 of the 2012 AQMP. The TCMs in the 

2012 AQMP are derived from TCM projects in the 2012-2035 SCAG 

Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy 

(RTP/SCS).23 SCAG’s evaluation, described beginning on page VII20 of appendix VII of the 2012 AQMP, resulted in extensive local 

government commitments to implement programs to reduce auto 

travel and improve traffic flow. Attachment 2 to appendix VIII

(“Vehicle Miles Traveled Emissions Offset Demonstration”) to the 

2012 AQMP contains the list of TCMs under development and newly 

scheduled TCMs. See also 2012 AQMP, appendix IV-C.

In so doing, SCAG evaluated a wide variety of TCMs, 

including those measures listed in CAA section 108(f) and

relevant measures adopted in other nonattainment areas in the 

country, and determined that there was no combinations of 

reasonable measures that would advance attainment of the 1-hour 

ozone standard in the South Coast. See 2012 AQMP, appendix VII 

and appendix IV-C. Based on our review of appendix IV-C of the 

 

23 The Sustainable Communities Strategy is new to this RTP cycle and is 

required by California Senate Bill 375. While the focus of the SCS is 

greenhouse gases, concurrent criteria pollutant reductions occur. The 

emissions benefits associated with the RTP/SCS are reflected in the projected 

baseline emissions inventories in the 2012 AQMP. 2012 AQMP, appendix VII, 

page VII-23.
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38

2012 AQMP, we agree with the conclusion in the 2012 AQMP that 

the TCMs being implemented in the South Coast are inclusive of 

all TCM RACM for the area.

As to the mobile source component of the RACM

demonstration, in 2007, CARB adopted the “California Air 

Resources Board’s Proposed State Strategy for California’s 2007 

State Implementation Plan” (“2007 State Strategy”) through which 

CARB identified and committed to propose new defined measures 

for on-road and off-road sources and the fuels that power them.

Given the need for significant emissions reductions in 

California nonattainment areas, CARB has been a leader in the 

development and adoption of stringent mobile source control 

measures nationwide and has unique authority under CAA section 

209 (subject to a waiver or authorization by EPA) to adopt and 

implement new emission standards for many categories of on-road 

vehicles and engines and new and in-use off-road vehicles and 

engines. We have also noted that many if not most of these 

particular measures are being proposed for adoption for the 

first time anywhere in the nation. Like the 2007 AQMP, the 2012 

AQMP relies on the defined measures adopted by CARB in the 2007 

State Strategy approved by EPA in 2012, and we agree with the 

2012 AQMP’s conclusion that CARB’s mobile source program, 
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39

approved as RACM in connection with the 2007 AQMP, continues to 

be RACM as it expands and further reduces emissions.

Therefore, for the reasons discussed above, we conclude 

that the 2012 AQMP provides for RACM for ozone precursor 

emissions from stationary, transportation, and mobile sources in 

the South Coast.

c. 2012 AQMP Aggregate Emissions Reductions Commitments

As described in the previous section of this document,

through adoption of the 2012 AQMP, the SCAQMD has committed to 

achieve specific aggregate emissions reductions from VOC and NOx

sources in the South Coast area. Specifically, the SCAQMD has 

committed to develop, adopt, submit and implement measures that 

will achieve the following additional emissions reductions by 

January 1, 2022: 5.8 tpd of VOC and 10.7 tpd of NOx. The SCAQMD

expects to meet its emissions reductions commitments for VOC and 

NOx through implementation of the 15 measures in table 5, and 

through implementation of the Surplus Off-road Option for NOx

(SOON) provision for construction/industrial equipment, but 

reserves the right to substitute measures as described in the 

previous section of this document.24 CARB has made no new 

aggregate emissions reduction commitment for the purposes of 

 

24 SCAQMD estimates that extension of the SOON provision will achieve 7.5 tpd 

of NOx reductions by 2022.
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

40

demonstrating attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard by 

December 31, 2022 in the South Coast, but the 2012 AQMP 

estimates that CARB’s existing, EPA-approved aggregate emissions 

reduction commitment under the 2007 AQMP will provide 7 tpd of 

VOC and 24 tpd of NOx reductions by 2022. Considered together, 

the SCAQMD’s new aggregate emissions reductions commitment and 

CARB’s existing aggregate emissions reductions commitment under 

the 2007 AQMP amount to 13 tpd of VOC and 35 tpd of NOx for the 

purposes of 1-hour attainment in the South Coast by December 31, 

2022. 

EPA believes that, with respect to the 2012 AQMP 1-hour 

ozone attainment demonstration, circumstances warrant the 

consideration of enforceable commitments as part of the 

attainment demonstration for the South Coast. As shown in 

table 4 above, the majority of the VOC reductions and a 

substantial portion of NOx emissions reductions needed to 

demonstrate attainment in the South Coast come from SCAQMD 

regulations that were adopted prior to June 2012, and CARB 

regulations that were adopted prior to August 2011, i.e., 

baseline measures that have been or will be approved into the 

SIP (or issued waivers or authorizations) prior to a final 

approval of the attainment demonstration. As a result of these 

State and District efforts, most sources in the South Coast 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

41

nonattainment area are currently subject to stringent rules 

adopted and approved by EPA (or for which EPA has issued waivers 

or authorization in the case of CARB regulations) prior to the

development of the 2012 AQMP, leaving few opportunities (and 

generally more technologically and economically challenging 

ones) to further reduce emissions. 

In the 2012 AQMP, the SCAQMD identified potential control 

measures that could provide many of the additional emissions 

reductions needed for attainment. See 2012 1-hour ozone 

attainment demonstration, appendix VII, section 4. However, the 

timeline needed to develop, adopt, and implement these measures 

went beyond the February 2013 submittal date of the South Coast 

2012 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration. These circumstances 

warrant the SCAQMD’s and CARB’s reliance on enforceable 

commitments as part of the attainment demonstration in the South 

Coast 2012 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration.

Given the State’s demonstrated need for reliance on 

enforceable commitments, we now consider the three factors EPA 

uses to determine whether the use of enforceable commitments in 

lieu of adopted measures to meet a CAA planning requirements is 

approvable: (1) does the commitment address a limited portion of 

the statutorily-required program; (2) is the state capable of 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

42

fulfilling its commitment; and (3) is the commitment for a 

reasonable and appropriate period of time.

For the first factor, we look to see if the commitment 

addresses a limited portion of a statutory requirement, such as 

the amount of emissions reductions needed to demonstrate 

attainment in a nonattainment area. For this calculation, 

reductions assigned to the new technology provision (CAA section 

182(e)(5)) are not counted as commitments.25

As shown in table 4 above, the remaining portions of the 

emission reductions needed to demonstrate attainment of the 1-

hour ozone standard in the South Coast nonattainment area (i.e., 

of the State’s total enforceable commitments), after accounting 

for baseline measures and emissions reduction commitments 

assigned to CAA section 182(e)(5) measures, amount to 13 tpd VOC 

and 35 tpd NOx. When compared to the total reductions needed to 

demonstrate attainment (not including the CAA section 182(e)(5) 

reductions in the attainment demonstration), the remaining 

portion of the enforceable commitments represents approximately 

 

25 CAA section 182(e)(5) specifically allows EPA to approve an attainment 

demonstration that relies on reductions from new technologies. This provision 

is separate from the requirement in CAA section 172(c)(6) for enforceable 

emissions limitations under which enforceable commitments are considered. As 

a result, reductions attributed in the attainment demonstration to new 

technologies are not considered part of the State’s enforceable commitments 

for purposes of determining the percentage of reductions needed for 

attainment that remain as commitments.
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

43

7 percent of the needed VOC reductions and approximately 6 

percent of the needed NOx reductions. These percentage reductions 

are consistent with other SIPs for which EPA has approved 

enforceable commitments. See our approval of the SJV PM10 Plan at 

69 FR 30005 (May 26, 2004), the SJV 1-hour ozone plan at 75 FR 

10420 (March 8, 2010), the Houston-Galveston 1-hour ozone plan 

at 66 FR 57160 (November 14, 2001), approval of the SJV 2007 

PM2.5 SIP at 76 FR 41338 (November 9, 2011), and approval of the 

South Coast PM2.5 SIP at 76 FR 41562 (November 9, 2011). We 

believe the State’s commitment meets the first factor because it 

addresses a limited proportion of the required emission 

reductions.

For the second factor, we consider whether the SCAQMD and 

CARB are capable of fulfilling their commitments. The 2012 AQMP 

includes a specific list of regulatory initiatives from which 

emissions reductions are estimated to fulfill that agency’s 

aggregate emissions reduction commitment. See table VII-4-2, and 

control measure OFFRD-01 (i.e., extension of the SOON provision) 

in table VII-4-4 of appendix VII of the 2012 AQMP. With respect 

to CARB’s existing aggregate commitment from the 2007 AQMP, 

table VII-4-1 of the 2012 AQMP lists the types of measures 

included in the 2007 AQMP that the State of California could 

implement to meet CARB’s existing 2020 aggregate commitment and 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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thereby provide the planned emissions reductions for 1-hour 

ozone attainment purposes in 2022. Given the State's and 

SCAQMD’s efforts to date to reduce emissions and the proposed 

stationary and mobile source strategies found in the 2012 AQMP, 

we believe that the State and SCAQMD are capable of fulfilling

their aggregate emissions reductions commitments.

For the third and last factor, we consider whether the 

commitment is for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.

First, we note SCAQMD’s commitment is to achieve the specified 

aggregate emission reductions by January 1, 2022 (see 

Wallerstein Letter), for the purpose of providing for attainment 

of the 1-hour ozone standard by December 31, 2022, an attainment 

date that we are proposing to approve herein. Second, to meet 

the aggregate reduction commitment by January 1, 2022, SCAQMD is 

relying on emissions reductions from the SOON program. 

Reductions from the SOON program involve accelerating fleet 

turnover of off-road diesel engines through equipment 

replacement and engine repowers that in turn rely on available 

funds. The SCAQMD’s expectation of emissions reductions from the 

SOON program by January 1, 2022 is based on the reasonable 

assumption of continued funding at current levels to achieve 

similar annual reductions in the emissions as have been achieved 

over the past four years. As such, we find that SCAQMD’s 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

45

aggregate emissions reduction commitment is for a reasonable and 

appropriate period of time. CARB’s emissions reduction 

commitment from the 2007 AQMP is for year 2020, and so long as 

the commitment is fulfilled by January 1, 2022, it will provide 

the necessary reductions to attain the 1-hour ozone standard in 

the South Coast by December 31, 2022. Thus, SCAQMD’s new 

commitment and CARB’s existing commitment are for a reasonable 

and appropriate period of time.

d. CAA Section 182(e)(5) New or Improved Technology Measures

For ozone nonattainment areas classified as extreme, the 

CAA recognizes that an attainment demonstration may need to rely 

to a certain extent on new or evolving technologies (referred to 

herein as “new technology” measures), given the relatively long 

time between developing the initial plan and attaining the 

standard and the degree of emissions reductions needed to 

attain. To address these needs, CAA section 182(e)(5) authorizes

EPA to approve provisions in an extreme area plan which 

“anticipate development of new control techniques or improvement 

of existing control technologies,” and to approve an attainment 

demonstration based on such provisions, if the State 

demonstrates that: (1) such provisions are not necessary to 

achieve the incremental emission reductions required during the 

first 10 years after November 15, 1990; and (2) the State has 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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submitted enforceable commitments to develop and adopt 

contingency measures to be implemented if the anticipated 

technologies do not achieve the planned reductions. CAA 

182(e)(5). The State must submit these contingency measures to 

EPA no later than three years before proposed implementation of 

these long-term measures, and the contingency measures must be 

“adequate to produce emissions reductions sufficient, in 

conjunction with other approved plan provisions, to achieve the 

periodic emissions reductions required by [CAA sections 

182(b)(1) or (c)(2)] and attainment by the applicable dates.” 

Id.

The General Preamble further provides that the new 

technology measures contemplated by section 182(e)(5) may

include those that anticipate future technological developments 

as well as those that require complex analyses, decision making 

and coordination among a number of government agencies. See

General Preamble at 13524. An attainment demonstration that 

relies on long-term new technology measures under section 

182(e)(5) must identify any such measures and contain a schedule 

outlining the steps leading to final development and adoption of 

the measures. Id. 

SCAQMD and CARB have demonstrated a clear need for 

emissions reductions from new and improved control technologies 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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to reduce air pollution in the South Coast. As shown in table 4, 

above, baseline measures, and enforceable commitments provide 

the majority, but not all, of the emissions reductions needed by 

2022 to attain the emissions target for 1-hour ozone attainment 

in the South Coast of 410 tpd of VOC and 150 tpd of NOx. 

To cover the difference, which amounts to 17 tpd of VOC and 

150 tpd of NOx, the 2012 AQMP includes 10 measures to reduce 

mobile source emissions for 1-hour ozone and 1997 8-hour ozone 

planning purposes and seven additional measures to accelerate 

the development and deployment of near-zero and zero-emission 

technology for goods movement related sources and off-road 

equipment to achieve additional emissions reductions over the 

longer-term for 2008 8-hour ozone planning purposes as well. 

These “new technology” measures are intended to provide the 

emissions reductions necessary to attain the 1-hour ozone 

standard and also represent the updated “new technology” 

provisions for attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in 

the South Coast. The “new technology” measures are identical for 

both the 1-hour ozone and 1997 8-hour ozone standards. The 

differences in the new technology provisions between the 1-hour 

ozone and 1997 8-hour ozone attainment demonstrations lie in the 

extent to which the attainment demonstrations rely on such 

measures, and the timing. The emissions reductions that are 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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needed from new technology measures to demonstrate attainment of 

the 1-hour ozone standard in the South Coast are 17 tpd of VOC 

and 150 tpd of NOx by January 1, 2022. The corresponding 

emissions reductions and timing from new technology measures for 

1997 8-hour ozone attainment purposes is 40 tpd of VOC and 241 

tpd of NOx by January 1, 2023.

Table 6 below lists the 2012 AQMP’s new technology measures 

along with a brief summary of each measure. See 2012 AQMP, 

appendix IV-B for a detailed description of the measures. In 

support of these measures, CARB adopted a commitment to 

“develop, adopt, and submit contingency measures by 2019 if 

advanced technology measures do not achieve planned reductions 

as required by section 182(e)(5)(B).” CARB Resolution 13-3, page 

9.

Table 6. SCAQMD and CARB New Technology Measures in 2012 

AQMP

2012 AQMP 

Measure 

Identifier Title Description

ONRD-01 Accelerated Penetration 

of Partial ZeroEmission and Zero 

Emission Vehicles

This measure continues implementation 

of CARB’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Project 

(CVRP) through 2023 with a minimum 

number of 1,000 vehicles per year to be 

incentivized through the CVRP, which 

provides individual vehicle incentives 

of up to certain amounts (e.g., $2,500 

for full zero-emission vehicles) for 

clean vehicles.
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ONRD-02 Accelerated Retirement 

of Older Light-Duty and 

Medium Duty Vehicles

This measure calls for retirement of, 

at a minimum, 2,000 light and mediumduty vehicles per year to 2023, and 

gives first priority to pre-1992 model 

year vehicles identified as high 

emitter and that are off-cycle to 

California’s Smog Check Program. 

Incentives are up to $2,500 per vehicle 

which could include a replacement 

voucher under CARB’s Enhanced Fleet 

Modernization Program.

ONRD-03 Accelerated Penetration 

of Partial ZeroEmission and Zero 

Emission Light-Heavyand Medium-Heavy-Duty 

Vehicles

This measure seeks additional emissions 

reductions through the early 

introduction of electric hybrid 

vehicles and continues the state hybrid 

truck and bus voucher incentive project 

(HVIP). Incentives of up to $25,000 per 

vehicle are part of this measure. The 

measure’s goal is to fund 1,000 hybrid 

and zero-emission vehicles each year to 

2023.

ONRD-04 Accelerated Retirement 

of Older On-Road HeavyDuty Vehicles

This measure seeks additional emissions 

reductions from older, pre-2010 heavyduty vehicles beyond the emission 

reductions targeted in CARB’s Truck and 

Bus Regulation. A significant number of 

heavy-duty trucks have been replaced 

through Proposition 1B Goods Movement 

Emission Reduction Program funding, the 

Carl Moyer Program, and other local 

incentives programs. This measure 

continues these programs through 2023.

ONRD-05 Further Emission 

Reductions from HeavyDuty Vehicles Serving 

Near-Dock Railyards

This measure calls for CARB to adopt a 

regulation or other enforceable 

mechanism to further reduce emissions 

from near-dock railyard drayage trucks. 

The regulation or other enforcement 

mechanism would require, by 2020, all 

containers transported between the 

marine ports and the near-dock 

railyards to use zero-emission 

technologies.

OFFRD-01 Extension of the SOON 

Provision for 

Construction/Industrial 

Equipment

This measure seeks to reduce emissions 

from older, high-emitting off-road 

diesel engines. Under this measure, 

incentive programs, such as the Carl 

Moyer Program and the SOON Provision of 

CARB’s Off-Road rule, would continue to 

be used to fund equipment replacement 

and engine repower projects. This 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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measure would extend the current SOON 

program beyond 2014 to 2023.

OFFRD-02 Further Emission 

Reductions from Freight 

Locomotives

This measure carries forward the 

freight locomotive new technology 

measures from the 2007 AQMP and calls 

for replacing existing locomotive 

engines with Tier 4 engines beginning 

in 2015 such that by 2023, there will 

be at least 95% Tier 4 locomotives 

operating the South Coast.

OFFRD-03 Further Emission 

Reductions from 

Passenger Locomotives

Metrolink’s Board has adopted a 

locomotive replacement plan which 

includes the procurement of Tier 4 

locomotive engines to replace its 30 

Tier 0 locomotives over a three-year 

period. In addition, the replacement 

plans call for repowering the existing 

Tier 2 locomotives to Tier 4 emission 

levels, resulting in 100% Tier 4 

locomotives by 2023.

OFFRD-04 Further Emission 

Reductions from OceanGoing Marine Vessels 

While at Berth

This measure focuses on ocean-going 

vessels not subject to CARB’s 

shorepower regulation and seeks to 

deploy shorepower technologies for an 

additional 25 percent of the calls not 

subject to CARB’s shorepower 

regulation.

OFFRD-05 Emission Reductions 

from Ocean-Going Marine 

Vessels

This measure calls for incentives to be 

used to maximize the early introduction 

and preferential deployment of vessels 

to the San Pedro Bay Ports with 

cleaner/new engines meeting the new 

Tier 2 and Tier 3 IMO NOx standards. 

ADV-01 Actions for the 

Deployment of Zero and 

Near-Zero Emission OnRoad Heavy-Duty 

Vehicles

This measure includes two sets of 

actions. The first set involves the 

establishment of an optional NOx

exhaust emission standard that is at 

least 95 percent lower than the current 

2010 on-road exhaust emissions 

standard. The second set is to develop 

zero-emission technologies for heavyduty vehicles that can be deployed in 

the 2015 to 2035 timeframe.

ADV-02 Actions for the 

Deployment of ZeroEmission and Near-Zero 

Locomotives 

This measure describes actions needed 

to commercialize advanced zero-emission 

and near-zero emission technologies for 

locomotives that could be deployed in 

the 2020 to 2030 timeframe.

ADV-03 Actions for the 

Deployment of ZeroEmission and Near-Zero 

Cargo Handling 

Equipment

This measure describes actions to 

demonstrate and commercialize advanced 

zero-emission and near-zero emission 

technologies for cargo handling 

equipment operated at marine ports, 

intermodal freight facilities, and 
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51

warehouse distribution centers that 

could be deployed in the 2020 to 2030 

timeframe.

ADV-04 Actions for the 

Deployment of Cleaner 

Commercial Harbor Craft

This measure describes actions needed 

to commercialize advanced engine 

control technologies and hybrid systems 

for commercial harbor craft that could 

be deployed in the 2020 to 2030 

timeframe.

ADV-05 Actions for Deployment 

of Cleaner Ocean-Going 

Marine Vessels

This measure describes the actions 

needed to deploy retrofit technologies 

on existing Category 3 marine engines 

to achieve Tier 3 marine engine 

emissions standards.

ADV-06 Actions for the 

Deployment of Cleaner 

Off-Road Equipment

This measure describes the actions 

needed to commercialize advanced zeroemission and near-zero emission 

technologies of off-road equipment that 

could be deployed in the 2020 to 2030 

timeframe.

ADV-07 Actions for the 

Deployment of Cleaner 

Aircraft Engines

This measure describes the actions 

needed to develop, demonstrate, and 

commercialize advanced technologies, 

procedures, and sustainable alternative 

jet fuels that could be deployed in the 

2020 to 2030 timeframe.

We have evaluated the reliance on the new technology 

provision of section 182(e)(5) in the 2012 AQMP and have found 

it to be acceptable. First, the SIP call to which the 2012 AQMP 

responds is for an attainment demonstration plan for an area 

classified as “extreme” for the 1-hour ozone standard. As such, 

the attainment demonstration can rely on the new technology

provision under CAA section 182(e)(5) if attainment cannot be 

demonstrated through implementation of RACM and enforceable 

commitments and if the specific criteria and requirements of 

section 182(e)(5) are met. As noted above, attainment by meeting 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

52

the emissions targets for the 1-hour ozone standard in the South 

Coast (410 tpd of VOC and 150 tpd of NOx) cannot be met through 

RACM and enforceable commitments. Second, with respect to the 

specific criteria and requirements, we find the 2012 AQMP’s 

reliance on new technologies to be acceptable because:

 The 2012 AQMP relies on new technology measures for 

reductions from a base year of 2008 to an attainment year 

of 2022, a period of 14 years, and thus does not rely on 

new technologies to achieve incremental emission reductions 

required during the first 10 years of the plan; and

 CARB has submitted an enforceable commitment to develop,

adopt, and submit contingency measures by 201926 (three 

years before the 1-hour ozone attainment year) to be 

implemented if the anticipated technologies do not achieve 

the planned reductions.27

In addition, we note the progress to date that has been made 

toward implementing the new technology measures. For example, 

 

26 We interpret CARB’s contingency measure commitment to be for January 1, 

2019 based on the statutory requirement for such measures to be submitted 

(“no later than 3 years before proposed implementation of the [advanced 

control technologies measures]”), CAA section 182(e)(5), and the 

implementation date for implementation of the advanced control technologies 

measures in the 2012 AQMP by January 1, 2022.

27 We also note that the State has committed to meet annually with EPA and to 

provide annual updates on the status of the 182(e)(5) commitments. See letter 

from James Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional 

Administrator, EPA Region 9, dated August 29, 2011 and letter from Richard 

Corey, Executive Officer, CARB to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, 

EPA Region 9, dated March 6, 2014.
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CARB reports that, in January 2012, CARB adopted the Advanced

Clean Cars Program, which combines the control of smog, soot 

causing pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions into a single 

coordinated package of requirements for model years 2015 through 

2025. In 2013, the California Legislature extended to 2023 two 

successful incentive programs, the Carl Moyer Program and the 

Air Quality Improvement Program, that otherwise would have 

sunset in 2014 and 2015, and provided nearly $65 million in 

additional funds. In December 2013, CARB adopted the new 

optional low-NOx standards for on-road heavy-duty engines that 

are one of the actions called for in the 2012 AQMP’s new 

technology measure ADV-01, listed above in table 6. 

Thus, based on the above discussion and evaluation, we find 

that the reliance on new technology measures as part of the 

attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone standard in the 

2012 AQMP satisfies the requirements of CAA section 182(e)(5).

As such, we are proposing to approve the new technology measures 

summarized in table 6 and further described in the 2012 AQMP, 

appendix IV-B, for 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration 

purposes and as an update to the new technology provision in the 

2007 AQMP for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard.

3. Applicable Attainment Date
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54

As noted previously, in our final SIP call, we indicated 

that the applicable attainment date for the 1-hour ozone 

standard in the South Coast is as expeditiously as practicable, 

but no later than 5 years from the effective date of the final

SIP call (i.e., February 6, 2018) but that EPA is authorized to 

extend the applicable attainment date for a period no greater 

than 10 years from the effective date of the SIP call (i.e., 

February 6, 2023) if appropriate given the severity of 

nonattainment and the availability and feasibility of pollution 

control measures.

The 2012 AQMP demonstrates attainment of the 1-hour ozone 

standard by December 31, 2022. To evaluate whether to approve 

an attainment date of December 31, 2022 for the 1-hour ozone 

standard in the South Coast, we reviewed the severity of 

nonattainment and the availability and feasibility of pollution 

control measures.

First, despite significant progress over the years, for 

urban areas nationwide, the South Coast nonattainment area has 

both the highest 1-hour ozone design value concentration and the 

highest annual maximum ozone concentrations in the United 

States. For instance, while the 1-hour design value has 

decreased from over 0.30 ppm in 1990 to less than 0.15 ppm in 

2011 (see figure VII-2-2 in appendix VII of the 2012 AQMP), 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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maximum ozone concentrations still are significantly higher than 

other metropolitan areas of the United States (see figures VII2-3 and VII-2-4 in appendix VII) and remain over 20% higher than 

the standard. The 1-hour ozone problem in the South Coast is 

complex, the design value monitor has shifted over time, and the 

problem is compounded by the topographical and meteorological 

conditions for the area that are very conducive to the formation 

and concentration of ozone. 2012 AQMP, appendix VII, section 5.

As discussed in the section of this document on control 

strategies and RACM, the South Coast nonattainment area needs 

significant reductions in VOC and NOx to demonstrate attainment, 

on the order of 31 percent for VOC and 80 percent for NOx from 

2008 base year emissions. EPA believes that further reduction of 

these pollutants is challenging, because the State and local air 

pollution regulations already in place include most of the 

readily available VOC and NOx control measures. Moreover, 

attainment in the South Coast nonattainment area must also 

mitigate the emissions increases associated with the projected 

increases in population and emissions levels for this high 

growth area.

The SCAQMD has a long history of adopting new measures and 

revising existing measures that provide emissions reductions of 

VOC and to a lesser extent, NOx. These measures provide ongoing 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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reductions that contribute towards attainment of the 1-hour 

ozone standard. The SCAQMD’s VOC reductions are achieved 

primarily from rules governing the petroleum industry, as well 

as consumer products rules at both the State and local level. 

These types of control measures present special implementation 

challenges (e.g., the large number of individuals subject to 

regulation and the difficulty of applying conventional 

technological control solutions). NOx reductions come largely 

from SCAQMD rules for fuel combustion sources, NOx RECLAIM, and 

from CARB’s mobile source rules. 

As provided above, EPA agrees that the implementation 

schedule for enhanced stationary source controls is expeditious, 

taking into account the time necessary for purchase and 

installation of the required control technologies. We believe 

that it is not feasible at this time to accelerate the emission 

reduction schedule for the state and federal mobile source 

requirements, which set aggressive compliance dates for new 

emission standards and which must rely on fleet turnover over 

the years to deliver the ultimate emission reductions. In 

addition, the State has adopted standards for many categories of 

on-road and off-road vehicles and engines, and gasoline and 

diesel fuels, and is relying on existing, approved commitments 

to continue developing rules for Smog Check Improvements, 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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Expanded Passenger Vehicle Retirement Program, Cleaner Main Ship 

Engines and Fuel, Cleaner Line-Haul Locomotives, and Off-Road 

Recreational Vehicle Equipment. EPA believes that the SCAQMD and 

CARB are implementing these rules and programs as expeditiously 

as practicable. EPA also expects that SCAQMD and CARB will 

continue to investigate opportunities to accelerate progress as 

new control opportunities arise, and that the agencies will 

promptly adopt and expeditiously implement any new measures 

found to be feasible in the future. For these reasons and also 

the need to conduct significant public outreach if applicable 

control approaches are to be effective, EPA agrees with the 

SCAQMD and CARB that a December 31, 2022 attainment date for the 

South Coast for the 1-hour ozone standard is as expeditious as 

practicable.

4. Air Quality Modeling for the South Coast 2012 1-hour Ozone 

Attainment Demonstration

In this section of the document, we discuss the applicable 

statutory and regulatory requirements for modeled attainment 

demonstrations, EPA guidance on air quality modeling for ozone 

standards, the air quality modeling analysis supporting the 

attainment demonstration in the State’s submittal, and our 

evaluation of these modeling analyses as part of the attainment

demonstration SIP.
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a. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 1-Hour Ozone Air Quality 

Modeling and EPA Guidance

For any ozone nonattainment area classified as serious or 

above, section 182(c)(2)(A) of the CAA specifically requires the 

State to submit a modeled attainment demonstration based on a 

photochemical grid modeling evaluation or any other analytical 

method determined by the Administrator to be at least as 

effective as photochemical modeling. In addition, 40 CFR section 

51.112 requires that attainment must be demonstrated using 

applicable air quality models, data bases, and other 

requirements specified in Appendix W to 40 CFR part 51, as 

interpreted in EPA guidance. See, e.g., Guideline for Regulatory 

Application of the Urban Airshed Model, EPA-450/4-91-013 (July 

1991); “Guidance on Use of Modeled Results to Demonstrate 

Attainment of the Ozone NAAQS,” EPA-454/B-95-007 (June 1996); 

“Guidance for the 1-hour Ozone Nonattainment Areas that Rely on 

Weight-of-Evidence for Attainment Demonstrations, Mid-Course

Review Guidance”(March 28, 2002); “Guidance for Improving 

Weight-of-Evidence Through Identification of Additional Emission 

Reduction Not Modeled (Nov 1999);“Guidance on the Use of Models 

and Other Analyses for Air Quality Goals in Attainment 

Demonstrations for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze,” April 2007. 

These guidance documents describe the criteria that an air 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

59

quality model and its application should meet to qualify for use 

in an ozone attainment demonstration. For more detail on EPA’s 

evaluation of the modeling in the South Coast 1-hour ozone 

attainment demonstration, see the “Modeling and Other Analyses 

Attainment Demonstration” memorandum in the docket for today’s 

proposal.28 The modeling document in the docket also includes a 

complete list of applicable modeling guidance documents. These 

documents describe the components of the attainment 

demonstration, explain how the modeling and other analyses 

should be conducted, and provide overall guidance on the 

technical analyses for attainment demonstrations.

As with any predictive tool, inherent uncertainties are 

associated with photochemical grid modeling. EPA’s guidance 

recognizes these limitations and provides recommended approaches 

for considering other analytical evidence to help assess whether 

attainment of the NAAQS is likely. This process is called a 

weight of evidence (WOE) analysis. EPA’s modeling guidance 

(updated in 1996, 1999, and 2002) discusses various WOE 

 

28 Memorandum to Docket EPA-R09-OAR-2014-0185 from Carol Bohnenkamp, Air 

Quality Analysis Office, EPA Region 9, “Review of the Modeling for the 

Attainment Demonstration for the Proposed Rulemaking Action on the South 

Coast 2012 AQMP for the One Hour Ozone Standard”, dated May 1, 2014.
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60

analyses. This guidance recommends that all attainment 

demonstrations include supplemental analyses beyond the 

recommended modeling. These supplemental analyses provide 

additional information such as data analyses, and emissions and 

air quality trends, which would help strengthen the conclusion 

based on the photochemical grid modeling. 

b. 1-Hour Attainment Demonstration Modeling and Weight of 

Evidence 

i. Modeling Approaches for the SCAQMD Attainment Demonstration

a. Photochemical Grid Model. The model selected for the 2012 1–

hour ozone attainment demonstration was developed using the U.S. 

EPA supported Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) (version 

4.7) air quality modeling platform with Statewide Air Pollution 

Research Center-99 (SAPRC99) chemistry, and the Weather Research 

and Forecasting (WRF) model (version 3.3) meteorological fields. 

The modeling system (including the photochemical model, 

meteorological inputs, and chemical mechanism) is consistent 

with the previous advice of outside peer reviewers. CMAQ is a 

state-of-the-art air quality model that can simulate ozone and 

PM2.5 concentrations together in a “one-atmosphere” approach for 

attainment demonstrations. 

b. Episode Selection. The attainment demonstration modeling 

focuses on 92 days of ozone air quality observed during June 
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through August of the base year 2008. Overall, the 92 day period 

provides a robust description of the 2008 ozone meteorological 

season. During this period, seven well defined multi-day ozone 

episodes occurred in the Basin with 16 days having daily 1-hour 

maximum ozone concentrations of 125 ppb or higher at the site 

with the maximum number of exceedances. When assessed for a 

normalized meteorological ozone episode potential using a 

regression based weighting covering 30 years of data (1998-

2010), the June 18-22, 2008 period was ranked in the 99th 

percentile. This episode contained the top four daily ozone 

maximum concentrations for 2008 in the South Coast and was 

selected as the focus of the attainment demonstration.

c. Model Performance. Model performance was evaluated in three 

zones in the South Coast Basin: the San Fernando Valley; the 

eastern San Gabriel, Riverside and San Bernardino Valleys; and 

Los Angeles and Orange County. Normalized Gross Bias, Normalized 

Gross Error, and Peak Prediction Accuracy were determined for 

each area. Although not a requirement for determining acceptable 

model performance, the performance statistics were compared to 

the EPA performance goals presented in guidance documents. The 

performance goals for Normalized Gross Error and Peak Prediction 

Accuracy were met in the eastern San Gabriel, Riverside and San 

Bernardino Valleys. The statistic for bias (Normalized Gross 
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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Bias) tends to be negative, indicating that the model tends to 

slightly under-predict ozone. Both June 18th and June 20th 

failed to meet the model acceptance criteria for the unpaired 

peak analysis. As a result, the attainment demonstration focused

on June 19th and 21st, days with observed peak concentrations 

that closely matched the design values. Based on their analysis, 

SCAQMD concludes and EPA agrees that model performance is 

acceptable for this application.

ii. Results of SCAQMD Modeling

Photochemical model simulations were conducted for the base 

year 2008 emissions and future-year 2022 baseline and controlled 

emissions. The 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration was based 

on the deterministic approach outlined in the “Guidance on Use 

of Modeled Results to Demonstrate Attainment of the Ozone 

NAAQS,” EPA-454/B-95-007 (June 1996). In addition, the weight of 

evidence analysis uses the model in a relative sense, using the 

relative response factor (RRF) technique described in the 

“Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Air 

Quality Goals in Attainment Demonstrations for Ozone, PM2.5, and 

Regional Haze,” April 2007.

a. Modeled Attainment. The model predicted a maximum 1-hour 

ozone concentration for 2022 of 125 parts per billion (ppb) on 
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June 19th at the Pasadena monitor.29 All other predicted 

concentrations during the five-day episode are projected to be 

below 124 ppb. The results of the attainment demonstration for 

2022 indicate that, allowing for one day per year above the 

standard, the 1-hour ozone standard would be attained by 2022 at 

all monitors with the controlled emissions inventory. The 

attainment targets (410 tpd VOC and 150 tpd NOx) are based on 

both short-term and long-term (i.e., new technology) measures.

With the related emissions reductions in place, it is expected 

that all stations in the South Coast ozone nonattainment area 

will meet the 1-hour ozone standard during the 2022 ozone 

season.

b. Weight of Evidence Analysis. The weight of evidence analysis 

for the ozone attainment demonstration relies on the use of 

site-specific RRFs being applied to the 2008 weighted design 

values. The RRFs are determined from the future year controlled 

and the 2008 base year simulations. The results of the RRF 

analysis supports the deterministic attainment demonstration and 

the level of emission reductions needed for attainment. The 

selection criteria for the episode days and the process of 

applying the RRFs to the CAMX modeling are discussed in more 

 

29 The national 1-hour ozone standard is 0.12 ppm. Values of 124 ppb or less 

are not considered exceedances of the standard.
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detail in the modeling document in the docket for today’s 

action. 

c. EPA’s Evaluation of the Modeling Demonstration

Our evaluation of the air quality modeling analyses and 

supporting information provided in the South Coast 2012 1-hour 

ozone attainment demonstration indicate that the South Coast 

area will attain the 1-hour ozone standard by its December 31,

2022. In addition to the attainment demonstration provided in 

the South Coast 2012 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration, we 

have considered supplemental technical information, including 

ambient air quality monitoring data, which was not available at 

the time the attainment modeling was performed by SCAQMD. This 

information is discussed in more detail in the “Review of the 

Modeling for the Attainment Demonstration for the Proposed 

Rulemaking Action on the South Coast 2012 AQMP for the One Hour 

Ozone Standard” memorandum in the docket. The most recent 

ambient air quality data that we have reviewed indicate that the 

area is on track to attain the 1-hour ozone standard by December 

31, 2022. The 1-hour ozone design value has decreased from 23.4 

expected exceedance days in 2000-2002 (average each year) to 5.5 

expected exceedance days in 2010-2012. The peak 1-hour 

concentration has decreased from 0.169 ppm in 2002 to 0.147 ppm

in 2012.
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Based on the analysis above and in the technical memorandum 

in the docket, EPA proposes to find that the air quality 

modeling provides an adequate basis for the 1-hour ozone 

attainment demonstration in the 2012 AQMP.

III. Proposed Action and Request for Public Comment

For the reasons discussed above, under section 110(k) of 

the CAA, the EPA is proposing to approve certain ozone-related 

portions of the 2012 South Coast AQMP as a revision to the 

California SIP. The relevant portions of the 2012 AQMP that are 

proposed for approval include the updated control strategy for 

the 1997 8-hour ozone standard and the demonstration of 

attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard in the South Coast by 

December 31, 2022. In so doing, we are proposing to approve the 

following commitments or measures upon which the 1-hour ozone 

attainment demonstration relies and that support update the 

approved control strategy for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard:

 SCAQMD’s commitments to develop, adopt, submit and 

implement the measures as listed in table 5, above, subject 

to findings of infeasibility and measure substitution, and 

a commitment to meet aggregate emissions reductions targets 

of 5.8 tpd of VOC and 10.7 tpd of NOx by January 1, 2022;
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May 5, 2014. We have taken steps to ensure the accuracy of this version, but it is not the official version.

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 The new technology measures listed in table 6, above to 

achieve emissions reductions of 17 tpd of VOC and 150 tpd 

of NOx; in the South Coast by January 1, 2022; and

 CARB’s commitment to submit contingency measures by January 

1, 2019 as necessary to ensure that the emissions 

reductions from new technology measures are achieved.

In proposing approval, EPA finds that an attainment date of 

December 31, 2022 is appropriate in light of the severity of the 

1-hour ozone problem in the South Coast and given the extent to 

which emissions sources in the South Coast have already been 

controlled and the difficulty of developing regulations and 

controlling additional emissions. EPA also finds that the South 

Coast 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration is based on 

reasonable estimates and forecasts of ozone precursor emissions 

and appropriate photochemical modeling techniques and 

assumptions and an acceptable control strategy.

We are taking public comments for thirty days following the 

publication of this proposed rule in the Federal Register. We 

will take all comments into consideration in our final rule.

IV. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

Under the CAA, the Administrator is required to approve a 

SIP submittal that complies with the provisions of the Act
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and applicable Federal regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 

52.02(a). Thus, in reviewing SIP submissions, EPA’s role is to 

approve state choices, provided that they meet the criteria of 

the CAA. Accordingly, this proposed action merely approves a 

state plan as meeting Federal requirements and does not impose 

additional requirements beyond those imposed by state law. For 

that reason, this proposed action:

 Is not a “significant regulatory action” subject to review 

by the Office of Management and Budget under Executive 

Order 12866 (58 FR 51735, October 4, 1993);

 Does not impose an information collection burden under the 

provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 

et seq.);

 Is certified as not having a significant economic impact on 

a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory 

Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);

 Does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or 

uniquely affect small governments, as described in the 

Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104–4);

 Does not have Federalism implications as specified in 

Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, October 7, 1999);
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 Is not an economically significant regulatory action based 

on health or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 

(62 FR 19885, April 23, 1997);

 Is not a significant regulatory action subject to Executive 

Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001);

 Is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the 

National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 

(15 U.S.C. 272 note) because application of those 

requirements would be inconsistent with the CAA; and

 Does not provide EPA with the discretionary authority to 

address, as appropriate, disproportionate human health or 

environmental effects, using practicable and legally 

permissible methods, under Executive Order 12898 (59 FR 

7629, February 16, 1994). 

In addition, this proposed rule does not have tribal 

implications as specified by Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, 

November 9, 2000), because the SIP is not approved to apply in 

Indian country located in the State, and EPA notes that it will 

not impose substantial direct costs on tribal governments or 

preempt tribal law.

List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
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Environmental protection, Air pollution control, 

Intergovernmental relations, Nitrogen oxides, Ozone, Reporting 

and recordkeeping requirements, Volatile organic compounds.

AUTHORITY: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.

___________________ ___________________________

Dated: Jared Blumenfeld,

Regional Administrator,

 EPA Region IX.