DOCOBENT RESUME

ED 193 092 SE 033 226

TITLE Science and Engineering Education for the 1980s and

Beyond.

INSTITOTICN Department of Education, Washington, D.C.: National

Science Fcundation, Washington, D.C.

PUE CATE Oct 80

NOTE 228p.

EDRS PRICE MF01/PC10 Plus Postage.

DESCRIPTORS Educational Improvement: *Educational Needs;

Educational Quality: *Engineering Education:

Engineers: Federal Aid: Federal Legislation:

*Mathematics Education: *Science Education:

Scientific Enterprise: *Scientifickiteracy:

Scientific Personnel: Scientists: *Technology

ABSTRACT

Prepared by the National Science Foundation and the

Department of Education in response tc a request by President Carter

for informatics cn the condition of science and engineering Education

in America, this document contains data shoving a decline in the

general understanding of science and technology among secondary

school students. Although scientific and technical literacy are

increasingly necessary in our society, high school students are

dropping out cf science and mathematics courses after the tenth

grade, resulting in a citizenry lucking understanding cf the

increasingly technically complex world. While data from econometric

Frcjecticns indicate that, with a few exceptions, there should be

adequate numbers of engineers and scientists at all degree levels to

fill available positions in 1980, ccncern also needs to be given to

the educaticn cf engineers, scientists, and technicians. Suggestions

for acticns tc alleviate these and related problems and to refocus

efforts for upgrading educaticn for the citizen as well as for the

specialist are included in this report. Positive action is needed so

that all citizens have the scientific and technical understanding to

participate in an increasingly complex society and so that technical

and Frofessicnal personnel remain cn the cutting edge of sclentific

and technical progress. (PB)

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* Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made *

* frcm the original document. * ***********************************************************************
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October 1980

SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING EDUCATION

FOR THE 1980s AND BEYOND

Prepared by the

National Science Foundation

and the

Department of Education

V.

i
THE WHITE HOUSE

WASHINGTON

October 14, 1980

During the past three years, the President has mounted a vigorous

effort to respond to challenges in energy, in health, in agriculture, in

protection of the environment, in national security and the quest for

peace, and in the renewal of our industrial base and economic productivity.

In the years ahead, science and engineering will play an important role in

meeting these challenges, and our public policy decisions will increasingly

involve issues of a technical nature.

In keeping with the Administration's commitment to insure our country's future strength, the President asked the Secretary of Education and

the Director of the National Science Foundation to examine the adequacy of

science and engineering education for the Nation's long-term needs. Their

report, "Science and Engineering Education for th' 1980's and Beyond,"

provides a thoughtful analysis of a number of important and difficult

issues facing the Nation's science and engineering education systems.

Several of the issues the report raises have already been partially

addressed by the Administration as part of the recently-announced economic

revitalization package. In addition to initiating reforms in the tax

system to stimulate investment and spur growth, the President has pledged

additional funding for scientific research and technological development

over the next two years. These funds will sustain 3% real growth in basic

research in each of these years, as well as a range of new projects to

promote cooperation in research among government, industry, and the universities. In addition, the President's Economic Revitalization Board will

establish a new partnership between business and government to improve the

skills of the workforce. These measures, taken together, will do much to

stimulate new interest in science and engineering careers and strengthen

the research and training base of the nation -- the universities and

engineering schools throughout the country.

As we consider the FY 1982 budget during the next several months, the

Executive Office of the President will continue to work with the agencies

to find specific ways to strengthen the education of our professional

scientists, engineers, and technicians. The rerrt notes that both the

instructional and research capacities of our universities in several

fields have been strained by faculty shortages and equipment obsolescence.

We intend to enhance the capabilities of our science and engineering programs for education and for research.

;I. 0
- 2 -

The report also documents a decline in the general understanding of

science and technology among the students in our secondary schools.

Because we recognize that secondary education is primarily a function of

our states and localities, the Department of Education, with assistance

from the National Science Foundation, will hold a series of regional

conferences of educators, scientists, and state and local officials to

reflect on the report and to plot action, as appropriate, at all levels

to improve the understanding of science and technology among our citizens.

The process will insure that these groups are involved in shaping and

implementing a response to the problems the report describes.

Our educational system is the key to maintaining our leadership

position among the nations of the world. All of our citizens must have

scientific and technical understanding to participate inan increasingly

complex society, and our professional and technical personnel must

remain on the cutting edge of scientific and technical progress. We

congratulate Secretary of Education, Shirley Hufstedler, Acting National

Science Foundation Director, Donald Langenberg, the former Director of

the Foundation, Richard C. Atkinson, and all of those who helped develop

this report for their dedication to these goals.

In releasing this report, we join with them and with our schools,

state and local governments, colleges, universities, businesses, and

industries, in a commitment to the highest quality scientific and technical education for all Americans.

Frank Press

Science and Technology

Advisor to the President

4
CONTENTS PAGE

Letter from the Science and Technology Advisor to the President

PART ONE REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

I. Science and Technology Education for All Americans vii

A. Increasing Public Awareness of the Need

for Excellence in Science and Technology

B. Helping the Schools xiii

C. Increased Awareness of Preparation for Career Opportunities

in Science and Technology xix

II. Professional Education for Engineers, Scientists,

and Technicians xxiii

A. Relieving Short-Term Personnel Shortages xxv

B. Strengthening Educational Capacity in the Engineering

and Computer Fields xxvii

C. Coordinating Continuing Education Activities xxxii

D. Assessing the Status of Technician Training xxxiii

E. A Continuing Review Strategy xxxv

PART II. STAFF ANALYSIS

Executive Summary 1 A. Background 1 B. Scope and Method 2

C. Principal Findings

D. Detailed Findings 8

Reference 17

I. Introduction ... 19

A. Background: Science and Engineering Education in

American Society 19

B. Federal Support for Science and Engineering Education:

Historical Notes 22

C. Present and Future Concerns 29

References 32

II. Supply and Demand for Science and

Engineering Personnel .. 33

A. Current Balances Between Supply and Demand 34

B. Projected Supply and Demand for Scientists

and Engineers in 1990 40

C. Limitations of Projections 58

D. Quality Considerations 60

References 65
III. Science and Engineering Education at

Universities and Four-Year Colleges 67

A. Introduction 67

B. The Education of Engineers and Computer Professionals. . 69

C. Science Education at the Graduate Level 77

D. Science Education at the Undergraduate Level 83

References 87

IV. Additional Components of Post-Secondary School

Science and Engineering Education 91

A. Science and Technology Education at Community Colleges . . . 91 -

B. Continuing Education in Science, Technology,

and Engineering 94

C. Informal Opportunities for Science and

Technology Education 98

References 100

V. Science and Mathematics Education at the

Secondary School Level 101

A. Introduction 101

B. Secondary School Student Participation and

Achievement in Science and Mathematics 105

C. Course Work Requirements and Standards 111

D. The Condition of Teachers of Science and Mathematics . 115

E. Secondary School Science and Mathematics

Curricula and Programs 119

References 123

VI. Appendices

A. Technical Notes 129

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Projections of 1990

Employment (Section II-B) 129

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)

Projections of Baccalaureate and Master's Degrees

in Science and Engineering (Section II-B) 130

National Science Foundation (NSF) Projections of

the Supply and Utilization of Doctoral Scientists

and Engineers (Section II-E) 131

Information Base on Pre-College Science and

Mathematics Education (Section V) 133

B. International Comparisons of Science and

Engineering Education

References

ii 6

137

147
C. Minorities, Women, and the Physically Handicapped

in Science and Engineering 151

Status of Minorities in Science and Engineering 151

Status of Women in Science and Engineering 156

Status of the Physically Handicapped in

Science and Engineering 158

References 160

D. List of Contributions

Papers Commissioned by the National Research Council . . . 161

Assessments Contributed by Representatives of Other

Nongovernmental Organizations 166

Assessments Contributed by Individuals 171

Assessments Prepared by U.S. Government Agencies 173

E. List of Seminars Arranged by the

National Research Council 175

F. Selected Bibliography of Published Sources

List of Sources Compiled by the National Research Council. 177

Other Sources Consulted 183

Acknowledgments 193

1 iii
PART ONE

REPORT TO THE

PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

Shirley M. Hufstedler

Secretary of Education

Donald N. Langenberg

Acting Director

National Science Foundation
Dear Mr. President:

Our response to the questions you posed in your February 8, 1980

memorandum on the condition of science and engineering education in this

country has been divided into two components. The first of these examines

the basic scientific and technological education of all our citizens; the

second looks at professional science and engineering education. More

detailed information about the issues we address appears in the attached

analysis prepared by our staffs.

I. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION FOR ALL AMERICANS

There is today a growing discrepancy between the science, mathematics,

and technology education acquired by high school graduates who plan to

follow scientific and engineering careers and those who do not. Scientific

and technical literacy is increasingly necessary in our society, but the

number of our young people who graduate from high school and college with

only the most rudimentary notions of science, mathematics, and technology

portends trouble in the decades ahead. Thomas Jefferson's axiom that an

enlightened citizenry is the only safe repository of control over the

ultimate processes of society surely includes the necessity for scientific

and technological enlightenment. While students who plan scientific and

engineering careers are receiving an adequate educational foundation, more

students than ever before are dropping out of science and mathematics

courses after the tenth grade, and this trend shows no signs of abating.

This situation has several troubling implications:

vii 9
o The role of science and technology is increasing throughout our

society. In business, in government, in the military, in occupations and

professions where it never before intruded, science is becoming a key to

success. Today, people in a wide range of nonscientific and nonengineering

occupations and professions must have a greater understanding of technology

than at any time in our history. Yet our educational system does not now

provide such understanding.

o Students who take no more mathematics and science after their tenth

year in school have effectively eliminated, by the age of sixteen, the

possibility of science or engineering as a career. The pool from which our

future scientific and engineering personnel can be drawn is therefore in

danger of becoming smaller, even as the need for such personnel is

increasing.

o Education has long been the route by which upward mobility has been

achieved by disadvantaged groups in our society. This verity has not

changed. Increased emphasis must be given to aiding those who have been

excluded, for too long, from oaree ; in science and engineering. We stress

this imperative both for reasons of equity and to increase the size of the

pool of talent from qhich the Nation's soi.atists, engineers, and

technicians can be drawn.

o The declining emphasis on science and mathematics in our school

systems is in marked contrast to other industrialized countries. Japan,

Germany, and the Soviet Union all provide rigorous training in science and

mathematics for all their citizens. We fear a loss of our competitive

edge.

viii
The contribution of science and technology to our security and

prosperity rests on two bases. The first of these is the competence and

inventiveness of the practitioners, the scientists, and engineers who

design and build the system. But the second base is equally important to

our overall success as a Nation. This second base consists of the

overwhelming portion of our population which has no direct involvement in

science and technology, or with the science and engineering community.

They are indirectly involved through their influence on the governmental

and industrial sources of funding for scientific and technological

endeavors. They are involved in the regulatory and policy decisions that

set directions for scientific inquiry and technological development. They

reap the benefits of science and technology. Many need some knowledge of

science and technology to do their jobs well. However, the current trend

toward virtual scientific and technological illiteracy, unless reversed,

means that important national decisions involving science and technology

will be made increasingly on the basis of ignorance and misunderstanding.

There has been, over the past fifteen years or so, a shrinking of our

national commitment to excellence and international primacy in science,

mathematics, and technology. This lessening of commitment has not been the

result of a conscious decision on anyone's part, but it has nevertheless

pervaded our society. The schools of this Nation are but reflections of

the degree of national commitment in any area, and they therefore are not

so much a cause of this condition as a result. To correct this debility,

therefore, will require that attention be given not only to the schools

themselves, but also to increasing public understanding and appreciation of

the importance of excellence in these areas. We therefore propose a

cooranated program which will: (a) increase public awareness of the need
for excellence in science and technology, and (b) help the schools fulfill

their role in formal science and technology education.

A. INCREASING PUBLIC AWARENESS OF THE NEED

FOR EXCELLENCE IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

A New National Commitment to Excellenge in Science and TechnoloRv

Education for All Americans

Since about 1970, there has been a nationwide trend toward reduction

of high school graduation requirements. Only one-third of the Nation's

17,000 school districts require graduates to take more than one year of

mathematics or science. At the same time--and we are not'sure which came

first -- colleges and universities have reduced the amount of mathematics and

science required for admission. These two trends are undoubtedly

interrelated, and they are disturbing.

The current focua on "basic skills," which originated in an

understandable concern about the quality of education, has also had an

adverse impact. Science is not generally viewed as "basic," so its role is

diminished in such programs, while the "basic" skill involved in

mathematics is only simple computation. Problems arise when the

acquisition of "basic skills" becomes the curriculum, rather than simply a

foundation upon which students can build their ability to deal with more

complex situations and problems. To help reverse this trend:

o You, with the advice of the Secretary of Education, the Director of

the National Science foundation, and leaders of other appropriate

organizations, can create a President's Council on Excellence in Science

12
and Technology Education. This Council could undertake an effort

comparable to the President's Council on Physical Fitness and Sports,

which, with a small budget, has had great influence during the past two

decades. In particular, it could provide a vehicle for Presidential

statements aimed at teachers' organizations, State and local school

officials, and colleges and universities about the need to raise science

and mathematics requirements for all secondary school students. It would

also provide a means for giving Presidential recognition to those who have

made significant contributions to excellence in both formal and informal

scientific and technological education.

o You can convene a national conference of leaders in education,

business, industry, the media, public interest groups, and private

foundations. This conference would explore more effective linkages between

formal and informal scientific and technological education, and would have

as its objective an increased commitment by private enterprise to support

excellence in scientific and technological education for all Americans.

Such a commitment could be accomplished by such means as public service

advertising, cooperative partnerships with schools, and support for the

educational roles of public centers and parks. The National Science

Foundation and the Department of Education are prepared to assist you in

organizing such a conference.

Impreasing Public Understanding of Science and Technology

While our primary concern is with the quality of science, mathematics,

and technology being offered in the Nation's formal educational system, we

are also distressed by the fact that the majority of adult Americans who

have already passed through that system have received an education which is
inadequate to their needs as citizens in today's technically complex world.

For this reason, we believe that the initiatives we recommend to increase

the amount and quality of scientific and technological education for all

Americans must incorporate mechanisms to provide access for all citizens to

scientific and technical information. This information should become part

of the environment in which they live and in which they respond to the

everyday problems they encounter. The success of these broad initiatives

will depend on the cooperative and complementary activities of many sectors

in our society, including business and industry, the Federal Government,

State and local governments, community organizations, scientific and

professional associations, and university and industrial scientists and

engineers who engage in public service activities. To this end:

o A Federal Interagency Coordinating Committee on Public

Understanding of Science and Technology can be established to include

representatives of the major Federal scientific and technical agencies,

with the National Science Foundation as the lead agency. The Committee

would work in close coordination with the President's Council on Excellence

in Science and Technology Education, and would be assigned the tasks of

assessing existing Federal activities and developing goals, policies, and

practices designed to maximize the effectiveness of the total Federal

effort.

o Existing programs within the Department of Education and the

National Science Foundation can be focused on encouraging and assisting

two- and four-year colleges, universities, and other local educational

organizations to provide a range of adult education courses aimed at

increasing the public understanding of science and technology, especially

xii

I -1
in relation to local and regional issues of science- and technology-related

public policy.

0 The National Science Foundation can extend existing programs to

permit science and technology museums, planetariums, zoos, nature centers,

and parks to develop their capabilities to improve the public understanding

of science and technology. Programs within the Department of Education

which provide general support to museums, as well as those that offer

support to public libraries, can be focused more sharply on public

understanding of science and technology.

B. hELPING THE SCHOOLS

In addition to measures that are directed at society as a whole, we

realize that specific programs must focus on schools, helping them do a

better job of producing graduates who are prepared and equipped to assume

their places in our technologically oriented society. To this end, we

propose four courses of action aimed at improving the curriculum,

introducing new technologies, helping teachers, and increasing awareness

of, and preparation for, career opportunities in science and technology.

Curricula

Federally sponsored curriculum development programs were an important

strategy for improving science and mathematics teaching in the post-Sputnik

era, and there is persuasive evidence that these programs had a long-term,

salutary effect. Today there is a need for similar programs, but the

target group is different. While programs of the 1950s and 1960s were

aimed at developing textbooks for future science and engineering majors,

xiii

1 ='"
today's desperate need is for curricula for students who are not interested

in professional scientific and engineering careers. There is a great

mismatch between the content of secondary school science and mathematics

courses and the needs and interests of students for whom these courses will

constitute their entire formal scientific education. With few exceptions,

these courses are not directed toward personal or societal problems

nvolving science and technology; nor do they offer any insight into what

engineers and scientists do; nor do they have vocational relevance except

for the chosen few.

New curricula could provide students with a better basis for

understanding and dealing with the science and technology they encounter as

citizens, workers, and private individuals. By stimulating interest in

science and technology, they can also motivate students to take science and

mathematics courses beyond tenth grade, thereby preserving their options to

enter science and engineering careers. The development of new curriculum

materials, as well as the dissemination and use of existing materials that

speak to the needs and interests of the broad spectrum of students, would

incorporate the last twenty years of experience in achieving constructive

change in our schools. To this end:

o New teaching materials in science and technology can be developed

for the broad spectrum of elementary and secondary students, with special

emphasis on the special needs of minorities, women, and the physically

handicapped. This is especially important for students in the middle and

junior high schools. These curriculum materials could focus on the science

and technology basis of essential national problems such as energy, natural

resources, and health. The National Science Foundation can build on

16
existing activities to involve outstanding scientists, mathematicians, and

engineers in the enterprise, while the Department of Education can take the

lead in involving educators, and in helping school systems implement new

courses and teaching approaches.

Electronic Technologies

The school curriculum rarely considers the role of the computer in our

society. Just as we recognize the Stone Age and the Bronze Age, the Iron

Age and the Machine Age, historians are likely to look back on our own time

and label it the "Computer Age." Use of computers and ^ther modern

electronic technologies has far outstripped the most venturesome

predictions of twenty years ago. The computer is revolutionizing the way

business and industry are conducted, and thus the nature of many jobs. The

small calculator is ubiquitous, appearing even in the hands of kindergarten

children. Examination of school curricula, however, would, by and large,

offer little evidence of the existence of this electronic revolution.

There is a yet unanswered need for our educational system to prepare

students to understand and use the new electronic aids to the human mind.

The convergence of computer and communications technologies not only

creates new educational needs, but also provides new possibilities for

addressing existing needs. Hand calculators, computers, television, and

new video recording technology can provide:

a. Opportunities for assessing the existing science and mathematics

curricula at all levels, taking advantage of possibilities for new

organizations of subject matter, new applications, alternative teaching

strategies, stronger interrelationships among different fields of study,

xv 1'"
and a better connection of science and mathematics with the future needs of

students;

b. Individualized, interactive instruction in science, mathematics,

and engineering for students at all levels, ranging from drill and practice

to the simulation of complex problem situations;

c. Increased motivation for both students and teachers. Most

students are familiar with the use of hand calculators, and in the near

future many can be expected to become familiar with micro-computers through

out-of-school activities. The incorporation of these technologies into

teaching can integrate school work in science and technology with common

experiences of students, and can be used to provide individualized

challenges to students with different needs and interests;

d. Inexpensive and more individualized diagnostic and performance

testing that is more sophisticated than presently used multiple choice

techniques.

To make better use of modern electronics technologies in education:

o The National Science Foundation can build on existing programs to

challenge scientists, mathematicians, and engineers to develop detailed

strategies and devise the needed software to exploit modern electronics in

education, while the Department of Education can take the lead in helping

schools learn how to use the new technologies.

xvi

18
o Since computers have come to exemplify the pervactvensss of

technology, they provide a useful point of departure to grasp the

significance, for society, of the full range of modern technology. The

Department of Education and the National Science Foundation, working with

schools, colleges and universities, and industry, can support the

development of curricula which contribute to a better understanding of that

significance.

Teachers

Recent studies confirm that the classroom teacher still plays the

pivotal role in education. Thus, it is distressing to learn that there is

a serious shortage of mathematics and physical science teachers in the

Nation's secondary schools. In the case of mathematics teachers, the

annual vacancy rate may run as high as ten percent nationwide, and

five-year projections do not indicate likely improvement in this situation.

Equally disconcerting, however, is the fact that many of these vacancies do

not really go unfilled. The jobs instead are given to individuals with

only marginal capability in these teaching areas. As might be expected,

the quality of instruction then frequently declines. The most likely cause

of this teacher shortage, in contrast to a personnel surplus in other

teaching fields, is the growing disparity between salaries inside and

outside of education. During 1978-79, for example, a person with a

bachelor's degree in mathematics or statistics could expect to receive only

three-quarters as much as a teacher as he or she could receive from private

industry.

xvli
OF_

A second factor underlying the declining quality of secondary-level

education is a lack of suitable classroom laboratory facilities, while a

decline in Federal support for faculty development is a third factor.

Finally, support systems for teachers are eroding. There are

relatively few persons available outside the classroom to provide quality

control and assist teachers with pedagogical problems. And continuing

educational opportunities for mathematics and science teachers have been

reduced. Our Nation has a tradition of local sovereignty over school

systems. We firmly believe that this decentralized approach to education

is the key to maintaining the strength and diversity in our Nation's

schools. Nevertheless, in some areas the prestige of the President and the

resources of the Federal Government can and should assist local school

systems. We believe it is important that the actions outlined be conducted

in consultation and partnership with States and local schools. To this

end:

o Several existing Department of Education programs that speak to the

needs of teachers can be focused more sharply on science, technology, and

mathematics instruction. The programs include the Teacher Corps, Teachers'

Centers, and the 'National Diffusion Network which, taken together, can

provide special resources and assistance in course preparation and in

resolving substantive day-to-day problems encountered in teaching science,

mathematics, and technology. These programs also offer superior teachers

opportunities to share insights with their less experienced colleagues both

locally and throughout the Nation.

xviii

20
o The Department of Education can establish regional centers jointly

with State and local governments and private industry to make scientific

and technological equipment, including personal computers, available to

schools. Such a program would build on experience gained during

implementation of the school equipment provision of the National Defense

Education Act.

o The National Science Foundation can build on its long experience to

support in-service and summer institute programs and short courses to

introduce experienced science and mathematics teachers at all levels to new

curricula and the uses of computer and communications technology and to

upgrade the skills of less qualified teachers. Such programs could be

supported jointly by industry and could offer teachers experience in

industrial settings as well as in universities.

o Communities can be encouraged and assisted to use resources

available in local industry, colleges and universities, libraries, museums,

planetariums, zoos and nature centers, and parks to enrich scientific and

technological education. The National Science Foundation can support the

development of strategies to use such resources effectively, while the

Department of Education can provide schools with funds to gain access to

them.

C. INCREASED AWARENESS OF PREPARATION FOR CAREER OPPORTUNITIES

IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

There is persuasive evidence that many students today are simply not

aware of the career opportunities which exist in scientific and

xix

21
technological fields. Many of them apparently have the misconception that

the only people in these fields are those with advanced degrees and that if

they are not top academic students, they need not apply. This is

particularly true of women and minority group members, who are grossly

underrepresented in scientific and technical fields. To help correct these

misconceptions, we make the following recommendations:

o The Department of Education's VocattJnal Education Program can

assist schools in introducing into vocational courses material emphasizing

the occupational opportunities available to secondary school graduates wit}+

good qualifications in science, mathematics, and technology.

o The National Science Foundation, in cooperation veth industry and

through an expanded program of in-service and summer institutes and short

courses, can develop programs to make secondary school science and

mathematics teachers more aware of the range of occupational and

professional positions that require adequate preparation in mathematics and

science.

o The National Science Foundation and the Department of Education can

expand existing programs to provide adequate career information to minority

and female students, beginning in their early adolescent years.

o The National Science Foundation and the Department of Education can

undertake a special joint effort to encourage secondary school students to

take more mathematics and thus broaden the career options available to them

on graduation. Such an effort will require that NSF SUpnOrt the

development of mathematics courses which provide a reasonable grounding in

xx 22
algebra and an introduction to probability and statistics to a broad range

of students. It will also require the Department of Education to encourage

the introduction of such courses into the schools.

o The National Science Foundation, in cooperation with the Department

of Education, can extend existing programs which aim to identify, during

their early adolescent years, students with special talent for science and

mathematics and offer them opportunities to develop their interest in these

areas. Such programs could include summer workshops in community and

industrial settings coupled with follow-up activities in the schools. They

could also include support for science and mathematics courses in high

schools that State or local officials have singled out as being especially

dedicated to the pursuit of excellence.

Together, these measures form a comprehensive approach to the need to

strengthen the Nation's science and engineering capabilities. They are not

a panacea, but we believe they can go a long way toward reversing the

declina in national commitment to excellence in science, mathematics, and

technology.

xxi
II. PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION FOR ENGINEERS, SCIENTISTS, AND TECHNICIANS

The second part of this summary and analysis is concerned with the

professional education of scientists, engineers, and technicians.

The economic well being, security, and health and safety of Americans

during the remaining two decades of this century, and beyond, will depend

increasingly on our ability as a Nation to strengthen our technological and

scientific enterprise. Several other countries are challenging our

leadership in science and technology. During the coming decades, we are

likely to be confronted with increasing competition, both from already

industrialized countries and from those newly emerging industrialized

countries with enormous labor resources. The United States cannot compete

successfully in this environment unless it strengthens its technological

base. This, in turn, will require that the Nation have sufficient numbers

of engineers, scientists, and technicians with the skills and training

required to meet present and future challenges, and that we make effective

use of those skilled personnel.

Whether this Nation will choose to embark on a new commitment to the

education and effective utilization of professional engineers, scientists,

and technicians is critically important to answering the questions implicit

in Your February 8 memorandum. The attached staff analysis summarizes the

results of several different econometric projections, which indicate that,

with a few exceptions, there should be adequate numbers of engineers and

scientists at all degree levels to fill available positions in 1990--

provided we assume that the Nation does nothing different in the future in

the ways it trains and makes use of engineers and scientists to address

xxiii

2.4
national problems. Since the technological complexity of our society is

almost certain to increase, however, we believe that taking that assumption

as a given would not be in the best interests of the Nation. Indeed, the

one factor most likely to increase the ratio of economic growth to

employment would be an increase in productivity. Such an increase will

surely come, if at all, from better trained people devising new ways to use

scientific and technical knowledge, and from a society that is better

prepared to assimilate technology. We also believe that the ability of

engineers, scientists, and technicians to exploit new opportunities and

meet new demands will be more important to the Nation's future than their

absolute numbers. Moreover, it is our judgment that the Nation can only

benefit from having greater numbers of persons with degrees in science,

engineering, and technology employed in occupations that are not directly

related to science and technology. Thus, we believe that the Nation can

ill afford an attitude of t,omplacency regarding the education and

utilization of professional engineers and scientists.

We also believe that the need to have a scientific and engineering

work force of the highest possible quality is consistent with an important

social goal. Women, minorities, and the physically_handinappedape

presently underrepresented in engineering and science. Thus, programs

which aim to increase the participation of these groups will also increase

the pool of talent from which the Nation's future engineers and scientists

will be drawn.

The attached staff analysis identifies and describes a number of

current and emerging problems associated with professional education. In

our judgment, four of these having to do primarily with the education of

xxiv

tiv
engineers and computer professionals are particularly pressing. The

following is a discussion of each of these four problems, together with

recommendations for appropriate Federal actions. While these

recommendations focus primarily on engineering and the computer

professions, we believe they are also applicable to problems emerging in

professional science education that, while less urgent today, are likely to

b come severe unless appropriate actions are taken.

A. RELIEVING SHORT-TERM PERSONNEL SHORTAGES

Shortages of trained personnel presently exist in the computer

professions, chemical engineering, electrical engineering, an industrial

engineering, as well as most other fields of engineering. Spot shortages

are also reported in several subdisciplines of the physical and biological

sciences. It is our judgment that there are likely to be presently

unpredictable shortages in other subfields in the future. While market

forces may ultimately relieve current and future shortages, we believe that

the innovative capacity of American industry will be severely hampered in

the interim. We simply cannot afford to wait for the slow workings of the

roPmmtplAc.

We recommend that:

1. The National Science Foundation, in cooperation with the

Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, and the

Department of Education, and other agencies that anticipate

personnel shortages in fields in which they have specific

concerns, can provide support to colleges and universities to

xxv
develop special one- and two-year programs that would allow

qualified undergraduates to transfer from their original

course of study in a scientific or engineering field to a

related course of study in a field where significant

personnel shortages exist or are projected.

2. The National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy,

and other mission agencies, in cooperation with industry, can

offer post-graduate industrial traineeships in selected

fields where there are current or projected shortages at

advanced degree levels. These programs can focus special

attention on identifying qualified minority, women, and

physically handicapped candidates. Advantage should be taken

of the National Institutes of Health medical traineeship

experience in designing such programs.

3. The effectiveness of Federal intervention in the engineering

and scientific labor market will depend in large measure on

the reliability of personnel projections. For this reason

the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the National Science

Foundation, and the National Center for Education Statistics

should be encouraged to pursue their efforts to improve their

projection methodologies. We also recommend that all Federal

agencies and the Office of Management and Budget be required

to submit personnel projection estimates for all major

research and development initiatives. Results of such

personnel projections should be disseminated in a form that

will be useful to employers, other Federal agencies,

xxvi

27
universities, and students who need information about career

options.

B. STRENGTHENING EDUCATIONAL CAPACITY IN THE ENGINEERING

AND COMPUTER FIELDS

There are, today, severe shortages of qualified faculty members in

most fields of engineering, as well as in the computer professions.

Industries have expanded their research and development efforts and have

increased the rate at which new, sophisticated products are introduced. To

effect this, they are luring faculty members away from the universities

into challenging well-paid positions. At the same time, they are making

such attractive Job offers to bachelor's degree recipients that many who

would once have gone to graduate school now opt for positions in industry.

The net effect has been a reduction in the ability of universities to

provide education in engineering and the computer professions, although

undergraduate demand for these areas is more intense than ever. Unless the

problem of faculty erosion is alleviated, it is possible that many

engineering schools and departments that educate computer professionals may

have to reduce their enrollments during this decade, thereby reducing the

numbers of trained people in these fields that the Nation's future

requires.

Several factors in addition to noncompetitive salaries contribute to

the problem of attracting and retaining qualified faculty members. The

attraction of being able to work with graduate students and conduct

research in an atmosphere of academic freedom has been tarnished of late by

difficulties in obtaining research support, problems of inadequate
equipment and facilities, and the instability of government funding for

research. Additionally, the current shortage of graduate students and

faculty members creates unusually heavy teaching loads which make academic

jobs less attractive for those interested in research. We believe,

therefore, that the faculty erosion problem can be alleviated in part by

improving both the research and teaching environment in engineering schools

and computer departments.

An important additional problem in engineering education is a severe

lack of the equipment required for instructional purposes at the

undergraduate level. During the past decade, computer-aided design and

computer-assisted manufacturing methods have provided important gains in

productivity for some large companies in this country. The apparatus

required to teach these methods to students, however, is generally

unavailable in engineering schools. Consequently, a good deal of the

instruction being offered may in fact be obsolete. While this situation

may not pose an insurmountable problem for a large employer who can afford

on-the-job training for new personnel, it tan have deleterious effects on

smaller companies and industries which have traditionally depended upon new

graduates for information about the latest developments in engineering

practice.

While there can be important Federal contributions toward alleviating

the shortage of engineering and computer professional faculty, we believe

that universities and industries must assume the primary role in this area.

Universities increasingly recognize the special research needs of their

engineering and computer professional faculties. Some are considering the

appropriateness of a medical school model for engineering schools, whereby

29
faculty members would be allowed more liberty to supplement their salaries

and gain access to specialized research facilities in industry. Industry

also can take several steps to respond to the shortage of faculty. It can,

for example, form consortia to support university research groups; or offer

money, equipment, and personnel in exchange for university-conducted

research. It can make its unique research facilities available to

university faculty. Industry can provide support to universities which

would in turn offer continuing education to its engineers. It can offer

cooperative arrangements so that university faculty members can engage in

industrial research while industrial engineers serve in university

departments.

Finally, industry can Join with universities to create work-study

programs at undergraduate, graduate, and post-doctoral levels.

Since the instructional equipment problem arises in part from the

changing requirements of industry, we believe that it can also be addressed

through closer cooperation between industry and engineering schools. Such

cooperative efforts should continue to be the primary focus, but we believe

that some direct, short-term Federal assistance to engineering schools is

also required.

We recommend that:

1. The National Science Foundation, in cooperation with the

Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, the National

Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and other

mission-oriented agencies, provide greater support for the

xxix
purchase of research equipment in university departments of

engineering and computer science. Such equipment would

permit faculty to engage in research aimed at advancing the

state-of-the-art in these fields. The National Science

Foundation can also extend its present support for the

purchase of equipment for undergraduate engineering

instruction, and the Department of Education can institute a

similar, coordinated instructional equipment purchase

program. Funds for research and instructional equipment

would be given on the basis of individual proposals relating

equipment needs to plans for carrying out high-quality

research and instruction.

2. The enrollment of women in engineering schools has increased

dramatically during the past five years. In order to exploit

this pool of talent, the National Science Foundation can

extend existing programs to assist female engineering

students to pursue their studies beyond the undergraduate

level, and, in particular, to explore the possibility of

university careers.

3. The National Science Foundation and other Federal agencies

that support research in universities can expand existing

pilot programs to reduce the administrative burden of grant

and contract management and expand access of university

faculty and graduate students to sophisticated, state-ofthe-art research facilities. Such programs include the NSF

XXX
master grants, regional equipment centers, and joint

university-industry research efforts.

4. The National Science Foundation can develop incentives aimed

at encouraging students in graduate engineering and computer

programs to enter university teaching. These incentives

could be in the form of fellowships for Ph.D. candidates who

plan to go into teaching. NSF can also expand its research

initiation program for new engineering and computer faculty

by providing such faculty with special research grants of

two- or three-year duration.

5. The Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, NASA,

and other Federal agencies that support research relevant to

their missions can provide incentives to engineering and

computer faculty and graduate students through salary,

traineeship, and facilities support, as indicated by agency

assessment of needs.

6. The effects of tax, patent, copyright, and antitrust laws on

industrial contributions to university engineering research

and instruction should be recognized. We are aware that the

effects of those laws and regulations on industrial research

and development are currently being examined as onp result-of

the recent Domestic Policy Review on Industrial Innovation.

It is clear to us that any steps that improve the environment

for industrial research and development will also have a

direct, positive effect on research and teaching in

xxxi
engineering schools. In particular, there is evidence that

such laws and regulations have created barriers to industrial

support of engineering and computer science education. If it

were possible to modify Federal policy in these areas without

sacrificing the social benefits that the laws and regulations

are intended to provide, it would do much to cement

university-industry relations and promote private support of

education and research.

C. COORDINATING CONTINUING EDUCATION ACTIVITIES

Continuing education and retraining are essential in science and

engineering, where technical advance is constantly creating new knowledge

and new fields and opportunities. At present, continuing education of

industrial engineers and scientists is spmad among a variety of sources,

including private entrepreneurs, industrial firms, professional societies,

and colleges and universities, with little or no coordination. We believe

that the responsibility for providing continuing education and retraining

for industrial engineers and scientists should be the responsibility of

these private sector organizations. However, the Federal Government can

help coordinate such individual efforts and can also help universities

adjust to changing demographic and economic conditions by expanding their

capacity for continuing education.

xxxii
We recommend that:

1. The National Science Foundation conduct a survey of

continuing education needs of technology-intensive industries

and convene a conference, based on the results of the survey,

of university continuing education directors and industry

representatives. The objective of the survey and conference

would be to stimulate better coordination in developing

continuing education programs in the universities.

2. The National Science Foundation periodically assemble and

disseminate a registry of continuing education programs for

industrial engineers and scientists.

3. The National Science Foundation give special emphasis to the

development of continuing education programs which aim to

retrain qualified female engineers and scientists who dropped

out of the labor force.

D. ASSESSING THE STATUS OF TECHNICIAN TRAINING

The success of technologically related enterprises in this country

depends to a large degree on the number and quality of skilled technicians

who provide support for our professional scientists and engineers. Other

industrialized countries, including West Germany, Japan, and the Soviet

Union, place heavy emphasis on training technicians in special vocational

schools. These societies not only offer technicians good jobs, but also

considerable social status as well. By way of contrast, technician

4
training in the United States has largely been a haphazard enterprise,

accomplished through a combination of on-the-job training, a few technical

institutes, and vocational training in secondary schools. In addition, a

substantial fraction of the technicians in this country were trained in our

armed forces in high-grade, very high-cost, educational programs.

Recently, two-year community colleges have begun to play an important role

in technical training. We believe that these institutions need to be

integrated into the overall science and engineering education system so

they can improve their effectiveness in attracting and training the

technicians needed to ensure our future success as a technological society.

However, we and our staffs have concluded that our primary immediate need

is for an improved information base on technicians and their training.

We regommem4 that:

1. The National Science Foundation conduct a comprehensive

survey of industry to obtain data about technician needs,

training, and utilization, and that information regularly

collected by the Bureau of Census and Bureau of Labor

Statistics be examined to determine its quantity and quality.

The results of these surveys can be used to determine what

types of data on technicians ought to be collected, analyzed,

and disseminated on a routine basis.

2. The National Science Foundation and the Department of

Education organize a series of regional conferences to assess

the needs of technology-based Indust -y for skilled
technicians and the state-of-the-art in training them. These

conferences would brirz together representatives of community

colleges and local industry, as well as experts in the

training and utilization of technicians from the Department

of Defense.

3. The Department of Education, working with the States, utilize

vocational education to encourage minority candidates to

undertake training to qualify as skilled technicians in

technology-intensive industries.

E. A CONTINUING REVIEW STRATEGY

We believe that these four sets of recoMmendations, if adopted, will

do a great deal to solve the most pressing current problems associated with

professional engineering and science education. But we also believe that a

strategy is needed that will continuously review the adequacy of our

science and engineering education and periodically renew momentum for

identifying and attacking emerging problems.

We recommend that:

An independent forum be established with the objectives of watching

over the broad set of relationships between the Federal Government and the

college and university science and engineering education system, and of

guiding the evolution of these relationships in directions that assure

their strength and vitality. Such a forum would provide a setting where
individuals and rEpresentatives of various interests could address major

policy issues and problems.

In order to explore the feasibility of this idea, the National Science

Foundation can award a contract to a private educational association to

develop a detailed plan and identify appropriate sources of support, and

also provide some start-up funds for staff and travel. However, the

feasibility of the forum must obviously depend in large measure on the

willingness of nonfederal organizations to provide it with continuing

support.

August 15, 1980

Shirley M. Hufstedler

Secretary of Education

Donald N. Langenberg

Acting Director

National Science Foundation

3 7
STAFF ANALYSIS

Prepared by the

National Science Foundation

and the

Department of Education
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. BACKGROUND

This analysis has been prepared for use by the Director of the

National Science Foundation and the Secretary of Education in preparing a

response to President Carter's February 8, 1980, request to them for an

assessment of the adequacy of the country's science and engineering

education for our long-term needs.

1/

The President's request is consistent

with the concerns, goals, and policies set forth in his Science and

Technology Message to the Congress in March 1979. These concerns, goals,

and policies involve the continuing availability of adequate supplies of

energy, food, and natural resource supplies; uses of space; national

security; industrial innovation and economic growth; promotion of better

health; improvement of government regulatory processes; building bridges

between countries; and understanding the fundamental forces of nature.

Other Administration initiatives, including the Domestic Policy Review on

Industrial Innovation (whose results were announced in a special

Presidential Message of October 1979) and its three annual budget messages

also emphasize relationships of science, technology, and our long-term

needs.

These Administration documents and initiatives recognize that the

Nation's scientific and technological enterprise can maintain high levels

of achievement and that an educated citizenry will choose to deploy science

and technology to solve national problems. But such achievements and

choices will depend on the levels of scientific and technical understanding

1
and perfoomance of people in a broad range of occupations and professions

and on the ability of all Americans to function in a society that is being

transformed by science and technology. Behind achievements and performance

lie the availability and effective use of sufficient numbers of

welltrained scientists, engineers, and Lachers of science and engineering

at all educational levels.

B. SCOPE AND METHOD

Two broad sets of issues are addressed in the review:

1. The quantitative and qualitative adequacy of pr.yressional

scientists and engineers at all degree levels, now and in 1990; and

2. The capacity of our educational system at different levels to

provide good scientific and technical education and +raining for

Americans, including those who do not intend to pursue the scientific and

engineering professions.

Information bearing on these issues was obtained from a wide range of

sources in addition to the published literature. These sources included:

current science and engineering educational and occupational data collected

by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the National Center for

Educational Statistics (LACES), and the National Science Foundation (NSF):

information on the state of science and engineering education in the

Nation's secondary schools, colleges, and universities collected by the

Department of Education and the National Science Foundation; assessments of

trends and needs contributed by the Departments of Agriculture, Defense,

2
and Energy, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the

National Institutes of Health; data and perspectives submitted by

professional scientific, engineering, and educational organizations; papers

by individual specialists commissioned by the National Research Council and

preliminary proceedings of a series of seminars based on those papers; and

several rounds of review of draft materials carried out by experts in the

education, business, and government sectors.

This review of current problems and issues in science and engineering

education does not address some important subjects that, while related to

the review, are beyond its scope. These include:

a. The explicit derivation and specification of alternative long-term

social, economic, and technological needs for our country and

their detailed discussion and prioritization;

b. The issues, options, and necessary improvements in areas other

than science and engineering education;

c. The analyses of advantages and disadvantages of the many current

and possible future specific programs to improve science and

engineering education.

The last subject is particularly important and an assumption of this

review is that the relevant Federal agencies (including the National

Science Foundation and the Department of Education), along with non-Federal

organizations, will proceed quickly to provide such specific analyses based

upon the broader issues and findings presented here.

3 .1
In addition, it should be noted that while the statements in this

review pertaining to secondary school education and college and university

enrollments are generally appropriate to the life sciences, it is not

intended to include a full and complete assessment of personnel needs and

training requirements for biomedical and behavioral research. Such

assessments are carried out by a Committee on a Study of National Needs for

Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel under the National Research

Council, Commission on Human Resources, of the National Academy of

Sciences.

The next two sections summarize the findings of this review. Section

C summarizes the principal broad issues that have emerged; Section D

discusses those issues in more detail under five headings: (1) Professional

Engineers, Computer Professionals, and Their Education; (2) Scientists and

Their Education; (3) Additional Components of the Post-Secondary Science

and Engineering Education System; (4) The Science and Engineering Teaching

Professions; and (5) Science and Mathematics Qualifications of Secondary

School Graduates.

C. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The most important set of issues, problems, and opportunities that

emerges from this review relates to the need to improve the quality and

amount of science, mathematics, and engineering education provided to U.S.

students. A significant number of the findings and options discussed

below, and in the body of this review, address this more general finding.

4
1. There are, at present, shortages of trained computer professionals

and most types of engineers at all degree levels. In contrast, the current

supply of scientists is adequate to satisfy existing demand for their

service, except in a few subfields of physical and biological science

(Section II-A).

2. Projections indicate that in 1990 the aggregate number of new

science graduates at all degree levels should exceed the number able to

find jobs in the broad fields in which they are trained (Section II-B).

With the possible exception of a few subfields, the numbers of new

engineering baccalaureates should, by 1990, be adequate to satisfy

projected demand for their services. However, the adequacy of Ph.D.

engineers in 1990 is problematic. The current shortage of trained computer

professionals at all degree levels is expected to persist beyond 1990

(Sections II-B and C).

3. While considerable progress has been made in increasing the

representation of minorities, women, and the physically handicapped, all

three groups continue to be underrepresented in the science and engineering

professions. The number of women in engineering schools has been

increasing rapidly, and they now compose about 15 percent of freshman

enrollments. With this exception, the proportion of minorities and women

who major in science and engineering is still small relative to their

proportion among college students (Appendix C).

4. There is an immediate problem of providing for the acquisition,

retention, and maintenance of high-quality faculty to teach engineering and

5
computer courses. This problem is the result of several factors, including

rapidly increasing undergraduate enrollments, decreasing Ph.D. output, a

widening gap between academic and nonacademic salaries, and the

obsolescence of facilities and technical resources needed for research

(Sections II-A and III-8).

5. The high cost of maintaining existing laboratory apparatus and of

replacing obsolete apparatus and facilities is a severe problem for

university faculty rho engage in research in equipment-intensive fields

such as electrical engineering, computer science, physics, chemistry, and

the life sciences. In some cases instruments needed to carry out research

at the frontiers of these fields are available only at centralized

facilities, and this situation is affecting the education of advanced

graduate students (Section III-C).

6. Although industrial design and engineering practices have changed

rapidly under the impact of modern electronic technology, engineering

schools, in general, lack sufficient resources to modernize teaching

facilities and equipment, with the result that many new engineers and

computer professionals are not adequately trained in state-of-the-art

techniques (Section III-B).

7. Decreasing priority is being given to science and mathematics in

secondary schools (Section V-8 and C). This situation is in marked

contrast to Germany, Japan, and the Soviet Union, which have been pursuing

a policy of more extensive and rigorous education in science and

mathematics for all citizens (Appendix 8). While the qualifications

6
of U.S. secondary school graduates who intend to pursue college majors in

science and engineering remain high (Section II-D), the general quality of

science and mathematics instruction at the secondary level has deteriorated

since the 1960s, as has the scientific and mathematical competence of

students who are not motivated toward careers in science and engineering

(Section V-8).

8. At both the secondary and higher education levels, there is a

serious problem of reduced educational standards and requirements.

Inadequate attention is paid to motivating and providing an appropriate

education in science and technology for those who do not intend to pursue

science and engineering as careers but who need an understanding of them

for their work and in their lives (Sections LII -D and IV-E). A shortage of

mathematics and science teachers and the absence of adequate teacher

support resources at the secondary level hampers the ability of the schools

to provide science and mathematics instruction for those not likely to

follow science and engineering careers (Section V-D).

9. There is a noticeable' absence of coordination among the'various

components of the science and engineering education system, particularly

between the secondary and the college and university levels. This lack of

coordination is evidenced, for example, by: (a) reduced opportunities for

sustained interactions between university and secondary school science and

mathematics faculties (Sections V-D and E); (b) the insufficient attention

paid to the special problems of two-year community colleges which are

assuming an increasing share of the responsibility for training the

Nation's skilled technical work force (Section IV-A); and (c) the

7
dispersion of the responsibility for continuing education among many types

of providers and the isolation of continuing education from the formal

educational system (Section IV-B).

10. Media which focus attention on science and technology, including

newspapers, magazines, public radio and television, science and technology

museums, and related institutions enjoy considerable popularity among

nonscientists and nonengineers. However, these media have not been

systematically exploited as adjuncts to the formal education system

(Section IV-C).

D. DETAILED FINDINGS

Additional details of these findings by broad field and level of

educational system follow:

The Etwation of Engineers and_Cnmputer_Professionals

Several indicators point to current shortages of engineers and

computer professionals at all degree levels. These indicators are consistent with anecdotal information from industry and the Federal Government

concerning difficulties in attracting sufficient numbers of engineers. In

addition, the Department of Defense reports problems in retaining engineers. Reduced levels of engineering graduate school enrollments in recent

years and the large share of those enrollments accounted for by foreign

nationals (approximately one-third to one-half of whom ultimately return to

their own countries) are creating particular difficulties in filling

current positions at the Ph.D. level (Section II-A).

41;

8
Quantitative projections carried out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

(BLS), the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES), and the

National Science Foundation (NSF) indicate that by 1990 there will be an

ample supply of new bachelor's level engineers in most fields of

engineering, reflecting continuing strong increases in undergraduate

engineering enrollments. These projections appear to be in essential

agreement with sectoral projections based on several different future

energy scenarios. However, there is some question about whether the supply

of Ph.D. engineers in 1990, particularly in energy research and development

areas, will be adequate. The number of computer professionals at all

degree levels, is likely to be insufficient to fill available positions in

1990 (Section II-B).

Engineering schools and computer departments are experiencing

difficulty in attracting qualified junior faculty and retaining senior

faculty members. If the universities continue to compete on unfavorahle

terms for Ph.D. engineers, the capacity of the educational system to

produce well-trained engineers and computer professionals at the

undergraduate and graduate levels will be severely strained, perhaps

limiting the validity of the personnel projection results summarized in the

preceding paragraph (Section III-B).

Faculty siortages, coupled with increasing undergraduate enrollments,

have already led to class sizes that are, in the opinion of the American

Society for Engineering Education, too large for effective teaching. Many

senior engineering and computer faculty have had to expand their teaching

commitments and limit their research activities that have traditionally

9 4
been a principal asset of the U.S. system and also an important attraction

of academic employment. This situation is exacerbated by the obsolescence

of laboratory research apparatus and physical facilities in many university

engineering schools (Section III-B).

Design and production engineering in industry have changed

dramatically due to the ready availability of sophisticated

computer-assisted and automated systems. Few engineering schools, however,

have had sufficient resources to modernize their teaching facilities and

equipment. As one result, many new graduates are not well trained relative

to current practices in large firms. This situation could affect the

productivity and competitiveness of small- and medium-sized companies that

have traditionally counted on new employees to keep them abreast of the

latest state-of-the-art in engineering practice (Section III-B).

SoientiStlanATheir_Hducation

There are currently enough trained scientists in all broad fields and

at all degree levels for science-related employment, and this situation is

likely to persist through the decade. However, current spot shortages are

reported in several subfields of the physical and life sciences,

particularly at the Ph.D. level. These subfields include solid state

physics, plasma physics, optics, polymer chemistry, analytical chemistry,

and toxiolAogy (Sections II-A and 6).

Academic positions for new Ph.D. scientists will remain scarce in most

fields, and thus there may bv-s-evefal basic research fields in which

potential scientific advance will be retarded. There is no consensus about

10
the effects of the resultant phenomenon of aging faculty on the quality of

research and science teaching at the univere.ty level. However, the lack

of "new blood" in many science departments reduces the ability of

educational institutions to benefit from innovative approaches to

instruction and research (Section III-C).

Rising costs will continue to strain the capacity of many U.S.

colleges and universities to provide high-quality training in science both

for undergraduate and graduate students. In addition, the rapidly rising

costs of research and the obsolescence of research equipment and facilities

will make it difficult for all but the premier university science

departments to maintain the close coupling between research and teaching

that has traditionally characterized the education of Ph.D. scientists in

the United States. Knowledgeable people in other industrialized countries

have frequently cited this association as an important U.S. advantage

(Section III-C).

Many more undergraduates major in science than enter careers directly

related to science. In addition, the desirability for nonscience majors to

pursue more science at the college level is widely acknowledged. However,

insufficient attention has been paid to the needs of students who do not

intend to pursue ..;.'aduate work in science (Section

Additional Components of the Post-Secondary Science and_

EngineerimEduoation Sister

Two-year community colleges, the fastest growing component of the

higher educational system, are assuming a large part of the responsibility

11 1 !)
for the training of technicians that formerly was carried out almost

entirely on the job. These institutions have a potentially important role

to play in improving the technical capability of the U.S. work force and in

increasing the productivity of engineers and scientists. The scientific

and engineering community, however, has focused relatively little attention

on their problems (which include increasing competition with four-year

colleges for a share of a decreasing student-age population and reduced

levels of local support), or on opportunities to integrate them more

effectively into the engineering and science educational system (Section

IV-A) .

Continuing education serves several purposes, particularly for

industrial engineers and scientists: upgrading the skills of technicians

to that of bachelor's degree level engineers, allowing mid-career engineers

to earn Ph.D.'s, and updating and broadening the skills of engineers and

scientists to qualify for positions in related fields or in nonscience and

nonengineering jobs. Although data are fragmentary, significant numbers of

scientists and engineers take advantage of continuing education

opportunities. However it remains dispersed among many types of

providers, with industry assuming a disproportionate share of the

responsibility for providing it (Section 1V-B).

The desire of an appreciable fraction of the nonscientific and

nonengineering public to mainte.n come contact with developments in science

and technology and their relationships with society is evidenced by the

popularity of media presentations that focus on science and technology.

These media include newspapers, magazines, public radio and television,

12 5 0
science and technology museums, and related institutions such as

planetariums, zoos, nature centers and parks. Little is known about the

extent to which exposure to such informal science and technology

educational opportunities leads to any genuine comprehension. Nor have

these media been exploited systematically as adjuncts to the formal

education system (Section IV-C).

Itatus_of the Science and Mathematics Teaching Professions

At the secondary school level, there is a pronounced national shortage

of competent mathematics teachers. A random national survey of mathematics

supervisors during the 1977-78 school year revealed that almost 10 percent

of mathematics teaching positions were vacant and that shortages were even

more severe in some regions of the country. Since four years of secondary

school mathematics are prerequisite for virtually all college science and

engineering majors, overcoming the shortage of qualified mathematics

teachers is an urgent problem. There is a similar though apparently less

severe shortage of new physical science teachers. These shortages indicate

that the secondary schools may lack the capacity to prepare students to

pursue college majors in science and engineering. Perhaps more seriously,

teacher shortages hamper the ability of schools to Provide suitable

instruction in science and mathematics for those who are not likely to

pursue science and engineering careers (Sections II-A, V-D).

Underzupplies of mathematics and science teachers persist despite the

fact that there are ample numbers of people with bachelor's and master's

degrees ir mathematics and the physical sciences. Teacher shortages in

these fields may reflect an overall sharp decrease in education majors.

13

51
No doubt they also result from relatively poor salaries and other

disincentives, as well as from widespread public indifference to tne status

of teachers. In addition, teachers have few opportunities to renew or

enhance their familiarity with developments in their fields or enjoy

1 sustained interactions with colleagues in universities and industry

(Section V-D).

The conditions under which secondary school teachers work in many

schools have deteriorated due to several factors: rising costs, increasing

taxpayer resistance to providing them with salary increases and adequate

support, and lack of motivation on the part of many students. The

financial factors coupled with declining enrollments have had particularly

adverse effects on science and mathematics education because they have led

to cutbacks in equipment and facilities that are so important to teaching

these subjects. Likewise, funds to hire special resource persons for

science and mathematics teaching have all but vanished over the last

decade. Many schools have eliminated or reduced the laboratory portions of

school science courses because equipment has become obsolete or

inoperative. Paraprofessional personnel to set up and maintain equipment

are generally unavailable. Schools seem to make little effective use of

science museums, planetariums, zoos, nature centers, parks, and similar

informal educational facilities, despite their availability and popularity

in many communities (Section V-D).

Science and Mathematics Qualifications_LLSecondary School Graduates

Only about one-sixth of all secondary school students currently take

junior- and senior-year courses in science and mathematics. A large

14

.11 ) 4/ 0,
percentage of this group intends to pursue careers in science and

engineering or in the health-related professions. This percentage has

remained approximately constant for several years. Judged on the basis of

nationwide test scores administered to high school seniors, the

qualifications of those intent on careers in science and engineering remain

high (Section II-D).

Few students who are not intent on such careers pursue science beyond

10th grade biology or mathematics beyond 10th grade geometry. This

situation has resulted in part because colleges have relaxed their entrance

requirements and also because few States require additional courses. Thus,

in effect, at the age of 16 (or earlier) many students deny themselves the

opportunity to enter rigorous college level courses in science and

engineering at the beginning of their careers. The dropout rate from

science and mathematics at the 10th grade level is particularly severe for

girls and for minority students (Section V-B).

There appear to be several reasons for these declining participation

rates, including low levels of achievements in science and mathedatics

required for graduation in most states, the reduction of college entrance

requirements and a narrowing of school curricula to a focus on "basics,"

and a serious mismatch between most existing curricula and the interests

and needs of those students who do not intend to pursue careers in science

and engineering. Most secondary school science courses focus on the

structure of the academic discipline. Little of vocational relevance is

presented in such courses, and there is virtually no exposure to

technology. The potential for using modern electronic technology to

15
reassess science and mathematics teaching at all levels does not appear to

have been widely recognized or exploited (Sections V-C and V-E).

16
REFERENCE

1. The text of President Carter's February 8, 1980 memorandum addressed

to the Secretary of Education and the Director, National Science

Foundation, follows:

I am increasingly concerned whether our science and

engineering education is adequate, both in quality and in

numbers of graduates, for our long-term needs.

Accordingly, I would like you to carry out a review of

our science and engineering education policies at the

secondary and university levels_tn Angnift^_that we are

taking measures which will preserve our national

strength. Please submit a report to me, with your

recommendations, by July 1, 1980.

The original July 1 submission date was later advanced to August 15 at

the suggestion of the Director of the Office of Science and Technology

Policy.

17
SECTION I. INTRODUCTION

A. BACKGROUND; SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING EDUCATION IN AMERICAN SOCIETY

Science and technology have deep roots in our national history. The

founders of the American Republic regarded them as integral components of

the society they sought to establish. More than three decades before the

American Revolution, Benjamin Franklin and his colleagues emphasized the

importance they attached to these pursuits when they organized the American

Philosophical Society to cultivate "all philosophical experiments that let

light into the nature of things, tend to increase the power of man ever

matter. and multiply the conveniences and pleasures of life."1

Thanks in part to the combination of vision and practicality

exemplified by people like Franklin, the centrality of science and

technology to American life is now an almost universally recognized fact,

rather than a dimly perceived ideal. The Federal Government itself has

come to play a pivotal role in encouraging and pursuing the search for

scientific knowledge and the application of that knowledge to the service

of human needs. President Carter's March 1979 Science and Technology

Message to the Congress provided a detailed summary of both immediate and

long-term national goals and needs that have significant scientific and

technological dimensions, and explored the responsibility of the Federal

Government in achieving them. These needs and goals involve the continuing

availability of adequate supplies of energy, food, and natural resource

supplies; uses of space; national security; industrial innovation and

economic growth; promotion of better health; improvement of government

19 Ei;
regulatory processes; building bridges between countries; and understanding

the fundamental forces of nature. Other Administration initiatives,

including the Domestic Policy Review on Industrial Innovation whose results

were announced in October 1979, and the Administration's three budget

initiatives also focus sharply on the relationships of science, technology,

and national needs.

Given the centrality of science and technology to American life, it is

almost self-evident that the Nation's future prosperity and security will

continue to depend in large measure on whether it has, and will continue to

have, sufficient numbers of adequately trained scientists, engineers, and

technicians, and whether it utilizes them effectively.

In the early years of our national life, the pursuit of science and

technology was the province of a handful of serious amateurs who cultivated

them as intense leisure-time activities. Today, without exception, many

Years of rigorous training starting at the secondary school level are

required to become a scientist or engineer. For this reason, the Nation's

schools, colleges, and universities must be regarded as important

components of its science and technology base. Their strength and

continued ability to attract and to provide a high quality education to

sufficient numbers of highly motivated science and engineering students are

vital national concerns.

However, the responsibilities of the Nation's science and engineering

education system go considerably beyond preparing students for careers in

those professions. Our schools, colleges, and universities also have the

20
responsibility to provide a basic understanding of science and technology

to those who do not plan to pursue careers in those areas. Enormous

advances in our scientific knowledge have occurred since World War II.

Technological developments have increased the complexity of our society and

resulted in changes undreamed as recently as 20 years ago. As a result,

many occupational and professional pursuits that formerly had little

scientific or technical content now require a reasonable level of

competence in those areas. The pace of scientific and technological change

is certain to persist and lead to additional complexities. Moreover,

trends external to science and technology, such as changing American

demographic patterns, the continuing shift toward a service-oriented

economy, and the changing relationships between this country and the rest

of the world will almost certainly alter our national life during the

remaining years of the century in ways that cannot be fully anticipated.

What is certain, however, is that science and technology will become even

more central than they are today, and thus that a deeper understanding of

science and technology will become increeasingly important to the ability

of all Americans to function in their occupations and professions and in

their roles as citizens. Therefore, the question of whether science and

engineering education is adequate for tte Nation's long-term needs must

consider the adequacy of education for Alj. Americans, not simply for the

relatively small number who intend to pursue science and engineering as

professions.

President Carter's Science and Technology Message recognized these

broader aspects of the connections between science, technology, and

American society by emphasizing the Federal Government's concern with the

21
overall public understanding of science. This view of science and

technology as part of the very fabric of our society was also central to

the vision of Franklin and his colleagues. Thus, national recognition of

the importance of scientific and technological capability and understanding

at all levels is not only essential to our future. It is in the best

traditions of our Nation.

B. FEDERAL SUPPORT FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING EDUCATION:

HISTORICAL NOTES

Many organizations and institutions are involved in the support and

provision of science and engineering education and in making effective use

of the people who are trained in science and engineering: private and

public universities, community colleges, primary and secondary schoo'

State and local governments, professional scientific and engineering

societies, private industry, and, of course, the Federal Government. The

Federal role in science and engineering education, though limited, has

become crucial.

Since World War II, the Federal Government's support for science and

engineering education has been regarded as an integral component of its

science and technology policy. The mode and extent of Federal support has

changed over the years with changing perceptions of the significance of

science and technology to national goals and needs.

During the final months of World War II, President Roosevelt asked

Vannevar Bush, Director of the Office of Scientific Research and

22
Development, to examine several aspects of the U.S. scientific research

system, one of which was the adequacy of the educational system for

discovering and developing scientific talent. In his classic report,

.kAence - The Endless Frontier, Bush, assisted by four distinguished

committees, made several recommendations, two of which were to lay the

foundation for Federal support for science and engineering education. 2

First, the report recommended that the Federal Government support

basic research in American universities--and thus, indirectly, science and

engineering faculty and graduate students.

Second, and more directly, it identified a need to increase the flow

of talented students into scientific careers and make up the deficits of a

war which had diverted nearly an entire generation of science students into

the armed forces. Thus the Bush report for the first time established the

development of scientific talent as a Federal responsibility. It

recommended that the Federal Government establish a series of graduate

fellowships and undergraduate scholarships for science students and a

program to identify and develop the talents of science-oriented servicemen

and veterans. Although the undergraduate scholarships were never

instituted, Science - The Endless Frontier firmly established the principle

of government assistance to further the education of talented students in

areas related to national needs.

While basic research in the universities was supported by several

Federal agencies in the late 1940s, graduate and post-doctoral fellowship

support for science and engineering students was initiated only after the

23
establishment of the National Science Foundation (NSF) in 1950. During

most of its first decade, providing such support to students who had

already made a commitment to professional careers remained NSF's primary

science education support function. However, beginning in the mid-1950s,

NSF also turned its attention to the need to increase the pool from which

future scientists and engineers would be drawn. A dual strategy was

pursued to this end: (a) teacher training institutes to develop the

knowledge and skills of those who would, in turn, teach promising students;

and (b) curriculum development to improve the quality and content of

science and mathematics instruction in secondary schools.

While these programs were established before the launching of Sputnik

I in October 1957, public alarm over that Soviet achievement resulted in

increased budget appropriations that transformed plans and experiments--for

teacher education and curriculum development--into programs. In January

1958, President Eisenhower stressed the importance of education to national

security and called for special attention to education in science and

technology. NSF's budget for science education was substantially

increased. Through the National Defense Education Act (NDEA) of 1958, new

programs for science education were established in the Office of Education

in Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. NDEA made funds available

to local school systems through State Departments of Education for

remodeling facilities on a minor scale and for purchasing equipment and

modern teaching aids for both science and mathematics. The Act also

provided support to the States to employ supervisors in each of these

fields. In addition, the statutory authority of NSF was amended to enable

it to support science, mathematics, and engineering education programs AL

24
B11 levels (emphasis addedi. The potential for overlap and replication

between the Office of Education and the National Science Foundation,

particularly at the precollege level, was resolved by the understanding

that NSF would deal exclusively with science and engineering, operate

mainly through scientific societies, science departments of colleges and

universities, and individual scientists, while the Office of Education

would operate mainly through State and local school systems. 3/ The

division of responsibility was reaffirmed legislatively in 1979 in the Act

creating the Department of Education.

Between 1959 and 1962, three successive reports on science and

engineering education, issued by the President's Science Advisory Committee

(PSAC) recommended an expanded role in these areas for the Federal

Government. 4/ Education for the Aae of Science, released in May 1959,

recognized the stakes and the responsibilities of all participants in

American science and engineering education: secondary schools, technical

institutes, and colleges and universities; industry and private

foundations; local and State governments; and the Federal Government. The

four tasks set forth by the report were:

o To build well-rounded curricula and in each subject to stress

intellectual content and provide for recognition of intellectual

achievement;

o To recognize that teaching is a task of primary importance in

modern society and therefore to encourage, aid, and reward competent

teachers in all fields;

25
o To recognize that our modern society needs human talents of a wide

variety, and that it is essential that every individual be given the

maximum opportunity to develop his or her particular talents to their

utmost;

o To understand that the advances of science and technology need

special attention to the end that (1) all citizens of modern society

acquire reasonable understanding of these subjects, and that (2) those with

special talents in these fields have full opportunity to develop such

talents.

A few of the problems cited in this report have been ameliorated by

the adoption of its recommendations. But many, including science and

mathematics teacher shortages, the lack of science literacy in the general

population, the need to define the role of technicians, and the difficulty

of attracting faculty for engineering schools, still remain.

In November 1960, another PSAC panel, under the guidance of

Glenn T. Seaborg, produced Sientific Progress. the Universities. and MI

Federal Government. Its central theme was that the U.S. needed "more

scientists, better trained, with finer facilities." The Seaborg Committee

operated from the premise that "basic research and graduate education,

together, are the knotted core of American science, and they will grow

stronger together, or not at all." Therefore, the report called for

Federal support for new centers of excellence, modernization of research

facilities and equipment, fellowships for doctoral candidates, and better

coordination of Federal programs affecting university research.

26
The Seaborg Report was followed, in 1962, by Meeting Mannower Needs in

Science and Tech/10102v (Edwin R. Gilliland, Chairman), which concluded that

"unless remedial action is taken promptly, future needs for superior

engineers, mathematicians, and physical scientists will seriously outstrip

the supply." This report was ambitious in several respects: it was the

first of the education reports to attempt to forecast science and

engineering personnel supplies and formulate policy from the predictions.

Based on projections of engineering, mathematics, and physical sciences

doctoral awards, the report set a "national goal" of 7500 Ph.D. awards

annually in these areas by 1970. This goal for annual Ph.D. production was

actually exceeded by 25 percent. In addition, the report envisioned a

greatly expanded Federal role in graduate training in engineering,

mathematics, and physical sciences, calling for the Federal Government to

support up to 60 percent of the Nation's efforts in graduate eucation in

these fields through student support, construction and equipment grants,

and other funds to institutions to cover the costs of graduate education

and to develop new centers of excellence.

The momentum generated by the shook of Sputnik began to wane in the

late 1960s. By 1969 the United States had succeeded in putting a man on

the Moon, an achievement that may have convinced many Americans that the

Nation's supremacy in science and technology could thenceforth be taken as

a given. Meanwhile, the Nation turned more attention to the social goals

of providing equal access to education at all levels for the dioadvantaged

and underrepresented--particularly minorities and women, and, later, the

physically handicapped. During the 1970s, the Office of Education

furthered these goals by channeling funds directly to the States, while the

27

C.1
National Science Foundation expanded its responsibilities to provide

support to individual minority, women, and physically handicapped science

and engineering students and to qualifying institutions.

Beginning in 1968, real-dollar Federal investments in research and

development and in science education began to decline, in part because the

war in Vietnam was placing heavy pressures on the controllable parts of the

Federal budget. These declines, coupled with demographic changes, marked

an end to the period of rapid expansion of university science and

engineering departments in the U.S. Federal support for graduate

fellowships in science and engineering also declined sharply from 1968

onward, while support for teacher training institutes and curriculum

development dropped off sharply starting in the early 1970s and then

virtually disappeared.

Federal research and development investments began to increase once

again in 1975, signalling a revival of concern for the health of the

Nation's science and technology enterprise. This concern was made more

explicit in several previously referred to Presidential messages and

actions. At the same time the conviction grew in many quarters that the

educational gains that had followed in the wake of Sputnik had not been

sustained. Given the historical importance of the Federal role in

supporting scierce and engineering education; given that our science and

engineering education system is an integral ,Jomponent of our science and

technology base; given that the overall quality of that base is of vital

national significance, it became essential to inquire, once again, whether

28 (:*t i
the Nation's science and engineering education is--and is likely to

remain--adequate to our long-term needs.

C. PRESENT AND FUTURE CONCERNS

When the Seaborg and Gilleland Reports were issued in the early 1960s,

the Nation worried about whether it had enough trained scientists and

engineers. 5/ The focus was on auarititv. As a result of these concerns,

Federal programs were aimed toward increasing the supply of scientists and

engineers. There were also concerns about quality, but they related

primarily to the problems of identifying and nurturing the most talented

students for careers in these fields.

Today the problems of science and engineering education are more

subtle than they were two decades ago. Present concerns go beyond whether

we now have enough engineers and scientists and are likely to have enough

in the near-term future. These concerns include the ability of the

scientific and engineering workforce to perform effectively, the amount and

Quality of education in science, mathematics, and technology being provided

to those who will never become scientists and engineers, and the ability of

the many components of our educational system to maintain and improve the

quality of scientific and technical education at AU, levels and for a broad

spectrum of students in the face of economic pressures, obsolete and

inadequate facilities, reduced enrollments in many fields, and severe

faculty shortages in others.
This review addresses two sets of issues:

1. Whether there are, and are likely to be in the near-term future,

adequate numbers of professional engineers and scientists; and

2. Whether the various components of the Nation's educational system

are presently providing--and have the capacity to provide- -

adequate education in science, engineering, and technology to a

broad spectrum of students at levels.

Data and information that speak to these issues have been collected

from a wide range of sources and analyzed under four headings:

o Supply and Demand for Science and Engineering Personnel;

o Science and Engineering Education at Four-Year Colleges and

Universities;

o Additional Components of Post-Secondary School Science and

Engineering Education; and

o Science and Mathematics Education at the Secondary School Level.

Appendices that draw together information on international Comparisons

of Science and Engineering Education (Appendix B) and on Minorities, Women,

and the Physically Handicapped in Science and Engineering (Appendix C), as

well as Technical Notes (Appendix A), notes on contributions to the review

(Appendices D and E), and a selected bibliography (Appendix F) are also

included.

Although the role of the Federal Government may well be crucial to the

resolution of many of the problems that are identified in this review, that

30
role must remain a limited one. Certainly Federal actions are unlikely to

be effective unless they are taken in coordination with actions on the part

of other organizations and institutions that are involved in the support

and provision of science and engineering education at all levels, and in

those that employ people who are receiving an education in these areas.

This need for coordination is particularly essential for add.essing the

most severe problems associated with science and engineering education, few

of which will admit to short-term, isolated solutions.

In addition to providing information on which Federal options can be

considered, the Department of Education and the National Science Foundation

hope that this review will catalyze other organizations and institutions to

consider appropriate steps to improve science and engineering education in

the United States.
REFERENCES -- SECTION I

1. Benjamin Franklin, Thl Writings of Beniamin Franklin. Albert H. Smyth

(ed), New York, 1905-1907, v. 2, p. 230.

2. liannevar Bush, Scienct-The Endlos Frontier. First issued July 5,

1945. Reprinted May 1980. Washington, D.C.: National Science

Foundation.

3. Hiller Krieghbaum and Hugh Rawson. An Investment in Knowledge.

New York, ha.: New York University Press, pp. 228-29.

4. Education for the Age of Science, May 1959; Scientific Progress. The

Universities and the Foderal Government ("The Seaborg Report"),

November 1960; and Meeting Manpower Needs in Science and Technology

("The Gilleland Report"), December 1962.

5. on. cit., Note 4.

A,

r 9

9
t

SECTION II. SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING PERSONNEL

Judged from an economic perspective, the Nation's science and

engineering labor force can be defined as being adequate at any given time

if there are enough trained personnel in all occupational specialties and

at all degree levels to produce the goods and services demanded by society.

Alternatively, we could attempt to derive science and engineering personnel

requirements by defining a set of social objectives, regardless of whether

those objectives were currently revealed in the marketplace for goods and

services. Such sets of social objectives might require that our society

use scientific and engineering personnel in ways that are quite different

than at present. One could then explore options for direct or indirect

Federal intervention to create actual jobs for the requisite number and mix

of scientists and engineers. However, there are a large number of

combinations of social objectives and no unique, value-free way to select

one combination as being superior to all others. To define national needs

in terms of alternative social objectives therefore implies a set of value

judgments that would have to be imposed on society and would be

inappropriate for particular Federal agencies to make. For this reason,

this section assesses the quantitative adequacy of the Nation's science and

engineering labor force, now and for the next decade, relative to the jobs

that currently exist in various science and engineering specialties, and

the number that are likely to be created by the market, given Federal

decisions being made now to increase defense expenditures, to create a

synthetic fuels industry, and to balance the budget. These projections jg

not consider the effects on employment of the emergence of new technologies

33

I}
which can offer more efficient ways to produce existing goods and services

or introduce new goods and services into the economy.

A. CURRENT BALANCES BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Summery of Current Situation.

Four types of indicators were examined to assess the current relative

balance between the supply of and demand for various occupational

categories of science and engineering personnel: (a) unemployment rates;

(b) judgments by employers of the difficulty of filling job vacancies; (c)

changes in relative salaries for new entrants into particular fields; and

(d) themobilitytit-personnel within science and engineering fields and

between science and enaineoring and other fields. The first two indicators

measure static Conditions at a particular time. The latter two reflect

adjustments made by the market to correct personnel shortages and

surpluses.

An assessment of currelt market conditions for science and engineering

personnel based on these set of indicators appears later in this section.

Taken together with additional information submitted for this review, they

lead to the following ecnelusions:

o There are current shortages of computer professionals at all degree

levels and tight markets* at all degree levels in most engineering fields.

* Throughout this section the terms "tight market" and "strong

market" are used to indicate that employers have difficulties finding

qualified applicants to fill existing job openings.

34

7
I

o University engineering schools and schools and departments which

train computer professionals are unable to fill existing doctoral faculty

positions, a condition that reflects the strong industrial market in these

fields. Moreover, the American Society of Engineering Education reports

that engineering and computer departments are also experiencing

difficulties in retaining both their junior and senior faculty.

1/

In

contrast, openings for Ph.D.'s in the academic sector are scarce in all

fields of the mathematical, physical, biological, and social sciences.

o Employers in the industrial, sector report that there are more than

enough qualified physicists, chemists, mathematicians, and biologists.

Trends in mobility data, however, suggest that the demand for chemists may

be increasing faster than the supply. Despite the adequacy of personnel in

these broad fields, spot shortages (particularly at the Ph.D. level) are

reported in several subspecialties, notably solid-state and plasma physics,

optics, analytical and polymer chemistry, and toxicology. 2/

o The Department of Defense reports problems in recruiting and

retaining both civilian and military engineers because of the generally

superior career opportunities in nonmilitary employment.

o Many secondary schools report vacancies for teachers in mathematics

and the physical sciences, despite ample supplies of people with bachelor's

and master's degrees in these fields3/ (Section V-D).

35
1. Unemployment Rates 1 Only about 1.5 percent of the 2.5 million scientists and engineers

in the 1978 labor force were unemployed, as compared to 6.0 percent

unemployment for the total civilian workforce. 4/ The lower level for

science and engineering workers reflects their high degree of training

relative to the remainder of the workforce as well as intense activity in

the Nation's science and engineering enterprise. The very tight market for

computer professionals was evident in an estimated unemployment rate of

only 0.3 percent. By themselves, very low unemployment rates are evidence

more of the general employability of scientists and engineers than of

generalized shortages. Other information is needed to identify fields with

insufficent supplies.

2. Reported Job Openings

NSF staff have asked employers of scientists and engineers about

the difficulty they have experienced in filling job vacancies. In

mid-1979, 27 large industrial companies and research laboratories responded

to an NSF survey on this subject. All industrial employers who reported

about engineers and computer professionals said that both categories were

in short supply. Supporting evidence of shortages of engineers came from

the Engineering Manpower Commission,5/ the College Placement Council,6/ and

the National Research Council. 7/ The U.S. Department of Labor's

designation of several enginlering subfields as "hard-to-fill occupations"

also indicates shortages. Employers in the industrial sector indicated

generally ample supplies of physicists, biologists, chemists, and

t)

36
mathematicians, though (a3 already noted) spot shortages are reported in

several subspecialties.8"

In correspondence with representatives of schools of engineering

and departments of computer science in 1979, NSF staff have found

widespread expressions of severe difficulty in finding doctoral faculty.

The large numbers of vacancies reflect not only the generally tight markets

in these fields, but also the disadvantage of universities in competing

with industrial employers who pay much higher salaries and who frequently

offer superior facilities and research support to doctoral engineers and

computer professionals. Contributing to the shortages of engineering

faculty was a drop in doctoral awards in this field of 25 percent (3338 to

2494) between 1973 and 1979. In the latter year, approximately one-third

of the new Ph.D.'s were nonimmigrant foreign students. 9/

Short papers contributed by several Federal agencies for this

study contained similar reports of the tight market for engineers. In the

defense agencies, problems in recruiting and retaining both civilian and

military engineers are aggravated by low entering salaries, low promotion

rates, and often outmoded facilities for research and development. The

Department of Energy stresses the need for engineers, particularly at the

advanced degree level, to carry out research and develc rent for the

Nation's synthetic fuel program (Appendix D-4).

Two indicators--changing relative salaries (3. below) and patterns

of mobility between fields of training and fields of employment (4. below)

3?
--provide evidence of the adjustments made by labor markets to alleviate

shortages and surpluses.

3. Salary Data

Economic theory predicts that salaries in a field with shortages,

or high demand, will rise relative to salaries in nonshortage fields.

Salaries for new employees are more flexible than are those for experienced

workers and, therefore, reflect changes in market conditions more closely.

From 1974 through 1979, according to data from the College Placement

Council, starting salaries for baccalaureate computer professionals and

chemical, electrical, and mechanical engineers rose from 53 to 58 percent

as compared to 37 and 42 percent rises for bachelor's degree holders in

business and the humanities, respectively.10" These data also indicated a

51 percent increase in salaries for mathematics and chemistry

baccalaureates and a 41 percent increase for those with degrees in biology,

38 percent for the social sciences, and 33 percent for the agricultural

sciences.

4. Field Mobility Measures

Many new graduates, at all degree levels, choose to ente" fields

different from those in which they were educated. Such mobility across

discirlines reflects market conditions in the chosen field of employment

relative to the field of training as well as personal preferences. The

ratio of the number of science and engineering graduates who enter the

labor force in a particular field to the number earning degrees in the same

discipline is an indicator of that field's balance Letween the supply of

graduates and the demand for new workers, as well as the ease of

4)

38
transferring between fields. By this measure, there has been a marked

shortage of degree recipients in the computer professions.

An NSF survey found that there were 2.7 times as many 1977

baccalaureates working in the computer professions in 1979 as had earned

bachelor's degrees in that field two years earlier. 11/ At the master's

degree level, the ratio was 1.6. These figures are the result of many 1977

science and engineering graduates in other fields switching to exploit

superior job opportunities in the computer profession. (These two figures

as well as those below were adjusted to exclude those engaged in fulltime

graduate study in 1979.) In engineering and chemistry, the corresponding

ratios were all near 1, indicating strong markets in those two fields. By

contrast, the following pairs of ratios for bachelor's and master's

recipients were found in other fields: physics, .3 and .3; mathematical

sciences, .2 and .4; environmental sciences, .5 and .8; biology, .3 and .6;

psychology, .1 and .5; and economics, .2 and .6. (In these other fields, a

master's degree is often the minimum educational requirement so the very

low ratios at the baccalaureate level may overstate the relative lack of

attractive job opportunities.) At the doctoral level, the most marked

field switching has been to the computer professions. In 1979, about 3.5

times as many Ph.D.'s worked as computer professionals as had ever earned

degrees in the field. The largest relative exodus occurred from physics

and astronomy, which had only about 70 percent as many working in those

fields as had earned degrees in them.

39
B. PROJECTED SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS IN 1990

Projections of the future balance between the supply of and demand for

scientists and engineers point out those fields in which shortages of

science and engineering personnel may prevent the U.S. from meeting

important national goals. If projections indicate potential shortages, a

decision can be made about whether the Federal Government should intervene

to prevent the projected shortfall. Because of the length of time required

to train scientists and engineers, efforts to increase supply can only have

an effect after several years--hence the need to anticipate shortages well

before they occur.

Summary of ProlectiOns

The projections described below indicate that in 1990 the supply of

scientists and engineers at all degree levels will likely be more than

adequate to meet demand in all fields except the computer professions,

statistics, and some fields of engineering. These projections are

summarized in Table I.

In general, the number of new science graduates should widely exceed

th.3 number who will be able to find jobs in the disciplines in which they

were trained. The projected excess of graduates over jobs implies many

with science degrees will take employment not directly related to science

and englneering. Also implied is a continued upgrading of the level of

training of the technical labor force. Baccalaureates would fill jobs once

'held by high school graduates and doctorates would fill positions formerly

40
held by those with less training, often in positions unrelated to teaching

or research and development.

These projections indicate that for engineers with bachelor's or

master's degrees, the labor market in 1990 should be less tight than at any

time since the early 1970s as a result of faster expansion in the supply of

qualified personnel than in demand ft.r their services. Employers may have

difficulty, however, in finding graduates in some fields of engineering,

such as aeronautical and industrial, particularly if defense programs

expand rapidly.

Two sets of projections, one prepared by the Bureau of Labor

Statistics, the other by the National Science Foundation, differ as to

whether in the future there will be an ample supply or a shortage of

doctoral engineers.

Some general limitations of all supply/demand projections are

discussed in Section II-C (below). None of these is believed to invalidate

the key projection findings summarized in Table I. However, it is worth

noting at the outset that the supply projections (discussed in detail below

and in Appendix A) assume that colleges and universities will have the

capacity to educate all students at both the undergraduate and graduate

levels who want to obtain degrees in a particular field of science or

engineering and who are judged by those institutions to be qualified to do

so. Several critics have suggested that this assumption may be unwarranted

for engineering colleges. They point to several factors discussed in more

detail in Section III-B--rising undergraduate enrollments, falling
TABLE I

PROJECTED MARKET FOR SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS IN 1990

BY FIELD AND LEVEL OF TRAINING

(all scenarios)

Physical Sciences

Atmospheric

Chemical

Geological

Physics and Astronomy

Engineering

Aeronautical

Chemical

Civil

Electrical

Industrial

Mechanical

Metallurgical

Mining

Petroleum

Other

Mathematical Sciences

Mathematicians

Statisticians

Computer Professions

-fe SciencesAgricultural

Biological

Social Sciences

Psychologists

Other

All Fields

BACCALAUREATES

AND MASTERS

Adequate

Balance

Adequate

Adequate

Adequate

Adequate

BalanceShortage

Adequate

Adequate

Adequate

Shortage

Adequate

Adequate

Adequate

Balance

Adequate

Adequate

Adequate

Shortage

Shortage

Adequate

Adequate

Adequate

Adequate

Adequate

Adequate

Adequate

NOTE: "Adequate" indicates that projected supply exceeds

"Balance" indicates that projected supply is close

"Shortage" indicates that projected supply is less

"Uncertain" is used for doctoral engineers because

in 1990 whereas BLS projects a shortage in 1985.

1/

DOCTORATES

Adequate

Uncertain

(Possible shortages

some fields)

Adequate

Shortage

Adequate

Adequate

Adequate

Adequate

Adequate

projected demand.

to projected demand.

than projected demand.

NSF projects an adequate supply

Shortage under expanded defense spending assumption only.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Center for Education Statistics, and

National Science Foundation.
levels of Ph.D. production, and faculty shortages--to indicate that these

colleges may not be able to train all qualified applicants. 12/ In this

case there would be fewer engineers available in 1990 than the projections

indicate, possibly resulting in continuing tight markets in most

specialties and perhaps, serious personnel shortages in a few of them.

Engineers

With the combined efforts of three agencies--the National Science

Foundation (NSF), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the National

Center for Education Statistics (NCES)--projections have been prepared of

the supply and employment of all scientists and engineers in 1990. In recognition of the leadership provided by PH.D.'s in teaching, research,

and management, additional projections describe possible condi:ions in the

1990 science and engineering doctoral labor market.

1. All Scientists and Engineers

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed two sets of

projections of the demand for scientists and engineers at all degree levels

in 1990. These projections (a Technical Note in Appendix A describes BLS

projection methods) were carried out in a series of steps linking expacted

aggregate economic activity to output by industry to employment by

occupation. BLS produced the first, or baseline, set of projections in

1979. These projections start with a set of assumptions covering the

nature of economic conditions and Federal policy goals during the 1980s.

These assumptions include a decline in unemployment to 4.5 percent by 1990

and an annual increase in labor productivity to 2.4 percent by 1985-1990

143

61)
above the current rate. The policy goals in the baseline projections do

n include (1) a sharply augmented defense budget; (2) large -scale

development of synthetic fuels; or (3) a balanced Federal budget.

To assess the sensitivity of the baseline demand projections to

alternative assumptions, BLS developed a set of alternative projections in

which each of these three policy goals was included one at a time. This

procedure allowed an estimation of the impact of each goal upon the

utilization of scientists and engineers. These assumptions represent

fairly extreme conditions. For example, the greatly expanded expenditures

for defense would be in a scientific and technologically intense sector and

would not be compensated for by decreased nondefense expenditures. It

should be noted that these projections do not include scientists and

engineers employed by secondary schools, colleges, and universities, since

BLS does not project employment in educational institutions by field. The

omission of academic employment in aggregate projections is mitigated by

its inclusion in the projections of Ph.D. utilization (as described below),

since Ph.D.'s account for a large majority of those employed in higher

education.

Under the baseline assumption, BLS projects that the employment of

scientists and engineers in science and engineering occupations and at all

degree levels will grow by about 40 percent between 1978 and 1990. This

growth would create about 180,000 new jobs in the mathematical, physical,

life and social sciences, about 480,000 new jobs in the computer

professions, and 250,000 new engineering jobs during the twelve-year

44 Si
period.' By far the most rapid growth, aoout 110 percent, is projected for

lomputer professionals. Employment of all engineers combined is projected

to grow by less than 25 percent, with the most rapid expansion for mining

(almost 50 percent) and petroleum engineers (40 percent). Estimated growth

in all other major subfields ranges between 19 and 28 percent. It shoull

be noted that many computer professionals obtain their degrees from

electrical engineering departments. If demand for these categories of

computer professionals were combined with electrical engineering,

employment in the latter specialty would be projected to grow at a much

greater rate.

Among the sciences, growth is put at 40 percent for psychologists,

geologists, statisticians, and economists. Occupations with projected slow

growth in'Aude atmospheric scientists, physicists and astronomers, and

mathematicians, all of which are projected at 10 pemont or less.

Under the baseline assumption, defense expenditures (excluding

compensation of military personnel) rise by 14 percent, or $6 billion in

1972 dollars, between 1978 and 1990. The assumption of a more rapid

expansion of 43 percent, or $18 billion in 1972 dollars, has a small effect

upon projected employment except for aeronautical engineers. Under this

assumption, requirements for aeronautical engineeers would expand by about

40 percent over the twelve-year period, or double the baseline expansion.

* New jobs created by growth plus openings for existing positions

created by attrition of currently active workers equal total job openings

reported in Table II.

45
To assess the possible impact of a second goal upon the science

and engineering labor market in 1990, BLS, after consulting with the

Department of Energy, devised a hypothetical program for the construction

and operation of new facilities for .toal liquefaction and gasification and

oil shale development. The program, which is not intended to represent any

official Administration proposal for synthetic fuels production, would

produce about three quadrillion BTU's. This would be about 3 percent of

the total energy supply, including imports, projected by BLS to be

available in 1990, and equivalent to 1.4 million barrels of oil per day

(MMBPD). In contrast, the recent House-Senate conference synthetic fuels

bill sets a 1987 goal of 0.5 MMBPD and a 1992 target of 2.0 MMBPD.

BLS projections indicate that a synthetic fuels program of the

scale analyzed would have only a very small effect upon science and

engineering employment in 1990 and would not alter the market assessments

made under the baseline projections. In assessing the effects of a large

synthetic fuels program, BLS assumed that existing technology would be used

in production facilities installed over the next ten years. As a result,

most additional employment would be devoted to the construction and

operation of new plants. These two activities require only limited numbers

of scientists and engineers.

A final alternative projection assumes that the Federal budget

will be in approximate balance by 1983 and will continue to be so through

1990. This is in contrast to the baseline assumption that the Federal

budget will have a $32 billion deficit in 1980 that will decline to a $23

billion deficit in 1990. The alternative assumption of a balanced budget,

46 ;,
achieved through higher taxes and lower expenditures, has no major effect

upon projected 199C science and engineering employment, since the assumed

changes in fiscal policy would affect the economy as a whole and have

relatively little effect on those industries with high concentrations of

scientists and engineers.

The demand for new science and engineering graduates between 1978

and 1990 was derived from estimates of 1990 employment. This demand would

be for trained but inexperienced workers to replace experienced personnel

who would die or retire and to fill the new jobs created in the twelve-year

period. Under both the baseline and alternative assumptions, about 360,000

scientists and over one million computer professionals and engineers, or a

total of about 1.4 million scientists and engineers would be needed to fill

growth and replacement demand (excluding openings in academia). These

estimates of employment openings by occupation are compared in Table II

with projections by NCES of the supply of graduates at the baccalaureate

and master's degree level through 1990 in each field. NCES projects that

there will be about 3.4 million science and engineering baccalaureates and

630,000 science and engineering master's degrees awarded between 1978 and

1990 in the fields considered here. (A Technical Note in Appendix A

describes NCES projection methods.)

Table II provides comparisons of BLS and NCES projections by

field. These comparisons point to two fields with large deficits of people

with bachelor's and master's degrees: the computer professions and

statistics. Such gaps would be expected to attract large numbers f people

with training in other fields, particularly mathematics, where degrees arc

47
TABLE II

COMPARISONS OF PROJECTED JOB OPENINGS

WITH PROJECTED DEGREES IN SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

1978-1990

JOB OPENINGS, 1978-1990

(in thousands)

Scenario

GRADUATES,1978-1990

(in thousands)

Level

ACCELERATE) SYNTHETIC BALANCED BACCABASELINE DEFENSE FUELS FEDERAL LAUREATE MASTER'S

ASSUMPTIONS SPENDING PROGRAM BUDGET DEGREES DEGREES

LIFE AND

PHYSICAL

SCIENTISTS

Agricultural 16 16 16 16 193 34

Atmospheric 5 5 5 5 5 4

Biological 38 38 38 37 637 78

Chemical 63 64 64 63 178 26

Geological 22 22 23 22 67 18

Marine 2 2 2 2 10 3

Physics and 11 11 11 11 45 19

Astronomy

TOTAL 157 159 157 156 1,135 182

MATHEMATICAL

SCIENCES

Mathematicians

3 3 3 3 102 27

Statisticlans19 19 19 19 3 5

TOTAL 22 22 22 22 105 32

COMPUTER

PROFESSIONALS

Programmers 300 302 300 299 NA NA

Systems 221 223 221 221

Analysts

Other 28 29 28 28

TOTAL 549 553 550 547 110 47

SOCIAL

SCIENTISTS

Psychologisti76 76 76 75 490 111

Other 100 102 101 99 628 58

TOTAL 176 178 177 175 1,117 170

48

t)
ENGINEERS

Aeronautical 24 35 24 24 28 NA

Chemical 22 22 22 21 92

Civil 95 95 95 94 134

Electrical 121 128 121 120 172

Industrial 94 98 94 93 48

Mechanical 89 95 89 89 171

Metallurgical

9 9 9 9 16

Mining 7 7 7 7 11 Petroleum 11 11 11 11 14

Other 59 61 592 59 115

3 TOTAL 528 561 534 525 928 196

TOTAL

ALL FIELDS 1,432 1,473 1,439 1,424 3,395 626

12 Includes economists, political scientists, and sociologists.

Includes 4,000 engineers who are not distributed by field.

3 Includes 128,000 engineering technology degrees not distributed by field.

Note: Estimates of openings do not include academic employment.

Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.

Sources: National Science Foundation, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and

National Center for Education Statistics.
expected to be many times larger than job openings. Such inter-field

mobility would continue the patterns of recent years. It is expected that

such field-switching would prevent the emergence of a tight market for

statisticians and would greatly diminish shortages of computer

professionals. Other fields with large Projected surpluses of graduates

are agricultural sciences and natural resources, biology, physics and

astronomy, psychology, and, as a group, the major social sciences.

Baccalaureate chemists will also far outnumber jobs although supply may be

fairly close to demand for master's degree holders in the field.

In all engineering fields, projected baccalaureates, including

those in engineering technology, are almost 1.8 times the projected

baseline openings. (Supply projections assume that engineering colleges

will be able to expand enrollment significantly beyond current levels.)

Under the baseline projections, only industrial engineers may have fewer

graduates than openings. An accelerated defense program may push

aeronautical engineers into a small 199., deficit. Nuclear engineeers, a

small subfield for which BLS did not prepare separate projections, may also

have future shortages, according to the Department of Energy, because many

universities have eliminated their nuclear engineering departments and more

are scheduled to do so.131 Finally, since many new engineers are likely to

continue to seek nonengineering jobs due to their own preference, the

engineering labor market in 1990 may be tighter than the numbers in Table

II would indicate.

A separate study supported by the Department of Agriculture

considered current and future supply and demand in many occupations other

50
than agricultural scientists (the only related occupation for which BLS and

NCES projections have been compared here) for which agricultural or natural

resources trairing may be required. The Agriculture study foLld that in

1985 there may be shortages of workers with training in several job

categories such as agricultural engineering and food and agricultural

chemistry. 14/

2. Personnel Requirements under National Energy Scenarios

Several studies commissioned by the Federal Government have

projected requirements for technical personnel :alder various national

energy scenarios. Three studies have explored the personnel implications

of large-scale programs to substitute synthetic fuels for imported oil and

one has assessed the future adequacy of personnel supply in the coal mining

industry. These studies are reviewed below.

a. The earliest and most comprehensive of the four studies was

completed under an NSF contract in mid-1977 by the Center for Advanced

Computation (CAC) at the University of Illinois. For this study,

Scientific and_Technical Personnel in Energy-Related Activities: Current

Situation and Future Requirements, CAC combined their own highly

Casaggregated model of the energy sector with the BLS employment projection

model. This allowed CAC to project requirements for scientists and

engineers in 1980 and 1985 for the entire economy under three scenarios.

This is in contrast to the other three energy-related studies which looked

only at the energy-production sector. CAC describes the three scenarios as

quoted below.
The Free Import Scenario assumes that energy consumption in the

United States increases from the 1973 level of about 73

quadrillion Btu's to 99.1 quadrillion Btu's in 1985. Domestic

energy production increases, but the growth of imports of oil

and gas are substantial.

The Limited Imports Scenario assumes energy usage increases to

84.1 quadrillion Btu's in 1985. Domestic coal production

increases substantially more than in Free Imports and nuclear

power grows substantially more. Oil imports are much lower

under Limited Imports.

The Synthetics Scenario uses the same major assumptions as the

Limited Imports Scenario but in addition assumes a program of

developing synthetic oil and gas that would produce a .9 MMBPD

(million barrels per day) oil equivalent in 1985 and 1.8 MMBPD

equivalent in 1990. The 1985 output is assumed to be .3 MMBPD

of shale oil, .1 MMBPD of coal liquids, .3 MMBPD of high-Btu

gas, and .3 MMBPD of low- and medium-Btu gas from coal (pp. 125-

126}

CAC found that, for the economy as a whole, the three

scenari' differed little in their requirements for scientists and

engineers in 1985. Moreover, the differences were "in a direction that is

count.s.rintuitive." CAC found that the "Free Imports" scenario had slightly

greater personnel requirements. CAC explained that "Free Imports" had the

highest level of energy consumption of the three scenarios and hence the

highest employment for energy production. This difference outweighed the

higher construction employment under "Limited Imports" and "Synthetics" (p.

viii). (It should be noted that Bechtel National, which prepared another

study reviewed below, provided CAC the estimates of direct requirements for

personnel for construction under the three scenarios.)

In 1979, the Department of Energy (DOE) commissioned four

studies to assess the feasibility of a national program to produce 1.0

MMBPD of oil through coal liquefaction by 1990. For two studies, contractors, Bechtel National and UOP working with System Development Corporation

(UOP/SDC), examined whether the lack of skilled manpower, particularly

52
engineers, would impede meeting this goal. All tour studies are summarized

and presented as appendices in a March 14, 1980 TRW draft report to DOE,

Achieving_a Production Goal of 1 Million B/D of Coal Liquids by 1999.

Bechtel and UOP/SDC both assessed material and manpower

requirements under current liquefaction technology. Bechtel analyzed

engineering demand by subtield, chemical, mechanical, etc., whereas UOP/SDC

examined all "technical manpower" together. Also, Bechtel considered

requirements for both construction and operation of liquefaction plants

whereas UOP/SDC, which was concerned with the chief potential impediments

to meeting the synthetic fr-tls goal, examined only construction employment.

b. In ProductimAf SYPIhetic Liquids from Coal: 19802000,

Bechtel states that the supply of civil, electrical, industrial, and

mechanical engineers "should be adequate" to meet the 1990 production goal

(p. 4-8) although there could be major difficulties in sufficiently

expanding the employment of chemical engineers. Bechtel calculates that

the stated goal could require a peak of 1300 additional chemical engineers

by 1984 (p. 4-4). For comparison, this would be about two to three percent

of the 1978 stock of chemical engineers and about 13 percent of the latter

who are engaged in "process design and construction work" (p. 4-7).

In evaluating the Bechtel findings, it is evident that coal

liquefaction of one MMBPD by 1990 light cause some labor market

adjustments. These might be reflected in such developments as experienced

engineers being bid away from other jobs to the synthetic fuels program and

in inexperienced graduates being asked to assume greater responsibilities

53

91 1
more quickly than might normally be the case. Such adjustments, however,

are clearly to be expected whenever any industry rapidly expands its level

of production. Only industries with large excess capacities can assume

major new roles without introducing short-term dislocations in skilled

labor markets.

c. In FeasibilitLIUNNIcaaLL Prodvotior of Synthetic Fuel from

Direct and Indirect CoaX_Linuefaction ProQesses, UOP/SDC examined four

different technical processes for producing 1.0 MMBPD by 1990. This

DOE-contracted study found that only one, liquefaction through the

"methanol-gasoline" approach, would require more than 20 percent of the

technical personnel, including engineers, employed by the firms capable of

constructing liquefaction plants. This meant to UOP/SDC that the three

other approaches, as well as an equally proportioned mix of all four

techniques, would keep technical personnel requirements in construction

firms below the "danger point', (p. 6-688).

d. The synthetic fuels scenarios discussed above would, if

implemented, all require massive increases in domestic coal production.

Under a DOE contract, The MITRE Corporation prepared the 1980 report,

Manpower for the Coal Mining Industry: An Assessment of Adectuacs_through

the Year 2000. For this study MITRE developed a projection model which

combined systems dynamics and econometric techniques. This allowed an

analysis of personnel supply and demand based on interrelationships between

technological change, labor productivity, production costs, wages,

graduation rates, and other key variables. MITRE found that a shortage of

mining engineers was unlikely by the mid-1980s. Only under a combination

54

.91
of extreme circumstances would shortages appear (Executive Summary, p. 4).

MITRE, however, warned that there is currently a shortage of mining and

mineral engineering faculty.

Based upon the above analysis of these reports, it is concluded

that these studies are consistent with the earlier statement that "a

synthetic fuels program of this scale would have only a very small effect

upon science and engineering employment in 1990..." The supply of

engineers should be generally adequate to produce 1.0 MHBPD by 1990,

although ther' may be short-term dislocations in some engineering fields,

particularly chemical engineering.151

The Department of Energy is less optimistic on the subject of

technical personnel available for the synthetic fuel industry, noting that

the synthetic fuels program will place an early peak load on engineering

capacity and will have to be carried out by engineers who are now active

(Appendix D-4). Some of these engineers will have to be enticed away from

other sectors of the economy which, in the opini-ri of DOE, could cause

major dislocations in those sectors. DOE's Office of Energy Research has

recently been given responsibility for energy-related personnel

assessments, and plans to pursue a number of technology-specific

projections during the next few years.

3. Doctoral Scientists and Engineers

Projections prepared by the National Science Foundation in 1978

(the methodology is described in a Technical Note in Appendix A) estimated

that there would be more than enough Ph.D.'s through 1987 to fill available

55
jobs at that level in four broadly defined fields: the mathematical,

physical, life, and social sciences. These projections also indicated that

there would be more than enough engineering Ph.D.'s in 1987. 16/ These NSF

doctoral projections were extended to 1990 for the purposes of the present

review. The 1990 projections indicate that an increasing percentage of

science and engineering Ph.D.'s are likely to be employed in jobs that are

not directly related to science and eng.meering. (According to a recent

NSF study, many Ph.D.'s enter such employment because of their own

preference. 17/

) Results of the Ph.D. projections are summarized in Table

The general findings of the NSF analysis for the four broad

scientific fields are very similar to 1985 Ph.D. projections made by BLS in

1978. The two sets of projections differ, however, for engineering, where

BLS foresees a Ph.D. shortage.

18/ Because the NSF projections did not

account for the continued strong market for B.S. engineers, they may have

overestimated future graduate engineering enrollments and, hence, future

doctoral supply. If so, the market for Ph.D. engineers may remain tight

through 1990.

It should be noted that computer professionals are included under

the mathematical sciences in these projections, even though (as already

discussed) many receive degrees from engineering departments. Available

evidence on current graduate enrollments and industrial demand suggests

that computer professionals at the Ph.D. level will be in short supply

through 1990.19/

56
C

TABLE III

FULL-TIME SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING DOCTORAL LABOR FORCE 22 FIELD

1979 ACTUAL AND 1990 PROJECTED

(in thousands)

Labor Force

PHYSICAL

SCIENCES

MATHEMATICAL

ENGINEERING SCIENCES

LIFE

SCIENCES

SoCIAL

SCIENCES TOTAL

1979 73 49 21 79 83 306

1990 103 80 30 113 125 450

Science/

Engineering

Utilization

1979 67 47 20 74 71 278

1990 93 63 23 93 99 370

Non-Science/

Engineering

Utilization

1979 7 3 1 5 12 28

1990 10 17 7 20 26 80

Non-Science/

Engineering

Utilization

as Percent

of Labor

Force

1979 9 6 6 6 14 9

1990 10 21 23 18 21 18

Note: Detail may not add to totals tecause of rounding.

Source: National Science Foundation

57

0

I
C. LIMITATIONS OF PROJECTIONS.

Projections are useful for making general assessments of the future

auequacy of the science and engineering labor force. For this purpose they

are subject to limitations stemming from two chief sources. The first type

of limitation is generic to all projections. It Is caused by the

impossibility of predicting all the events that may affect whatever is

being projected, in this case the supply and utilization of .cientists and

engineers. The sec)nd type, which affects primarily the supply

projections, results from an incomplete understanding of how students

choose careers and how the science and engineering labor markets function.

In regard to the first type, uncertainties associated with national

and world economic conditions can have major, unanticipated effects on

science and engineering labor markets. For example, the demand for and

price of particular goods and services might shift significantly, thereby

shifting demands for all workers, including scientists and engineers.

The emergence of new technologies is another important factor which

can have a potential influence on science and engineering labor markets.

It may affect employment either by offering ways of more efficiently

producing existing goods or services or through the introduction of new

goods or services. To exploit these technical innovations, occupational

specialities that do not now exist may emerge or openings in existing

occupations may grow 0.- decline unexpectedly. Thus technological change

may cause market imbalances that cannot be foreseen when projections are

made.
With regard to the second type of limitation, the NCES projections of

baccalaureate and master's degree recipients do not account for how the

market leads students into those fields with shortages -nd away from fields

with poorer job opportunities. Therefore, the projections or new

graduates, except at the doctoral level where adjustments are made by NSF

for market effects, have a tendency to overstate both future shortages and

surpluses. Also, current methods of projecting supply can make only crude

adjustments for the widespread flow of students from the fields of their

training to the other fields where they choose to work. These flows are

often substantial when fields differ greatly in their relative balances

between supply and demand. Additionally, forecasters are unable to predict

how factors, such as public opinion about the role of science and

technology in society, may affect the flows of new graduates.

Finally, the projections of engineering graduates presented in this

report assume that engineering schools will be able to expand their

enrollments sufficiently to meet projected class sizes. Some specialists

question the validity of this assumption.20/ Several reviewers also

believe that the current excess demand for computer professionals and

engineers is likely to continue and may become more severe.

21/

In sum, such projections are adequate to the extent that assumptions

are accurate and past trends continue; they cannot anticipate unforeseen

structural breaks with past trends. However, we believe the general

cbactusions of this analysis stand in spite of these limitations and

possibilities. They are based on such wiie differences beldeen projected

graduates and job openings that only very large projection errors could

59

t,
invalidate them. In summary, the main points are in 1990: (a) the demand

for computer professionals is likely to be greater than the supply of those

trained in the field; (b) the labor market for a few categories of

engineers should not be tight; and (c) the supply of scientists in all

broadly defined fields should exceed requirements.

D. QUALITY CONSIDERATIONS

Assessments of the qualitative adequacy of the Nation's science and

engineeering labor force necessarily require references to a set of norms.

Examples of norms might include statements such as: (a) all college majors

in science and engineering should be drawn from the top 15 percent of their

high school class; (b) all college and university science and engineering

faculty should have Ph.D. degrees; or (c) all personnel who enter science

and engineering occupational specialties should have degrees in those

specialties. In one sense, the quality of our science and engineering

labor force can never be completely adequate because the Nation can always

benefit from an improvement in the training and ability of science and

engineering teachers, researchers, and other workers. Thus, any evaluation

of the qualitative adequacy of the supply of scientists and engineers

should be constrained by a recognition of the competing claims from other

sectors of society for highly qualified people, the costs of training

scientists and engineers, and ne possible personal costs to those who

regard themselves as underemployed, because they are not working in fields

or specialities for which they were trained.

60
No indicators are available to measure or predict the future quality

of American scientists and engineers. However, we do know a great deal

about past U.S. scientific accomplishments. In the 35 years since the end

of World War II, this country has established and maintained preeminence in

many fields of knowledge. Evidence of U.S. scientific and technological

leadership is found, to cite a few examples, in the record of the manned

space-flight program, the continuing dramatic improvement in computer

engineering, breakthroughs in our understanding of genetic processes, and

new insights into the fundamental structure of matter. In recognition of

pioneering work such as that cited above, American scientists and engineers

have won 51 percent of the Nobel Prizes, excluding the prizes for peace and

economics, awarded in the post-World War II period. Publication activity

and citation analyses provide additional evidence of the past high level of

productivity of U.S. scientists and engineers.

On the negative side, several indicators point to a relative decline

in the technological advantage of U.S. industry compared with its foreign

competitors. These indicators include relative changes in labor

producti,qty and relative numbers of U.S. patents granted to U.S. and

foreign applicants. No proven relationships exist between the quaLity of

the science and engineering labor force and industrial productivity, though

there are correlations, at least, between productivity and rates of

research znd development investment. However, it is at least plausible

that the level of technical competence of all workers in an industry,

includinik scientists and engineers, bears directly on the problem of

improving industrial productivity. If so, then the qualifications of

students who intend to enter science and engineering occupations are

61
germane to the broad question of the adequacy of science and engineering

education for long-term national needs.

Although it is clear that the current U.S. technical labor force

contains a large share of the world's most productive scientists and

engineers, some observers question whether the U.S. will be able to sustain

this level of quality. Some of these observers maintain that the most able

students are turning away from science and engineering to careers such as

business, law, and medicine. Evidence suggests that such a sharply

negative appraisal is not warranted.

The percentage of the science and engineering labor force holding

doctoral degrees is one indirect measure of the ability of the U.S. to

compete scientifically. A labor force better educated in science and

engineering is better prepared to remain abreast of rapidly expanding

scientific knowledge and to explore new areas of exceptional opportunity,

such as recombinant DNA research. From 1973 to 1979 the number of active

science and engineering doctorates expanded from 223,000 to 317,000, or U2

Percent. The rising extent of advanced education among mathematical,

physical and life scientists was marked by a doubling between 1960 and 1978

of the proportion of Ph.D.'s in the natural sciences labor force.

According to two indicators of the academic ability of young people

planning science and engineering study, many able graduates will continue

to join the science and engineering labor force during the 1980s. One of

tnese indicators reflects the general scholastic capacity of future

scientists and engineers as they prepare to enter graduate school.

62 J:)
Another indicator is the record over the past 14 years of the college study

plans of those high school students selected as being the most capable in

each year's graduating class.

The large majority of applicants to graduate school take the Graduate

Record Examination (GRE) during their junior or senior year in college.

Over the eight-year period ending in 1978, the test scores of prospective

science and engineering graduate students on the quantitative components of

the GRE remained high and unchanged both in absolute terms and relative to

the average scores of graduate students in nonscience fields.

22/

In

particular, candidates for graduate study in the physical sciences,

mathematics, and engineering scored much higher on average than did those

planning nonscience and engineering study. Undergraduates applying for

admission to graduate life sciences programs scored well below the levels

of candidates in the three fields above but still well above the average

for nonscience and nonengineering applicants. On the verbal portion of the

GRE, science and engineering applicants averaged about the same as did

those applying for study in other fields.

Each year the National Merit Scholarship Corporation selects about

14,000 high school seniors as being the most gifted academically in the

Nation. From these finalists, a fraction- -about one-third in 1979--are

chosen to receive Merit Scholarships. In each year from 1966 to 1979 at

least 41 percent and as many as 49 percent of the scholarship winners

indicated plans to major in engineering, the natural sciences, or

mathematics, including computer science. 23/ These figures do dot include

those planning preparatory programs for the health professions or

63
prospective social sciences majors. The larger group of finalists has had

similar plans. In 1979 about 26 percent of both winners and finalists

planned majors in the sciences and about 20 percent planned to study

engineering. Although many high school seniors earn degrees in fields

different from those which they indicate on entry into college, science and

engineering continue to be attractive to many of the best students entering

college each year.

These indicators apply only to students who are contemplating careers

or at least majors in science and engineering fields. Broader assessments

of the educational attainments of all high school students suggest that the

science and mathematics competence of those who do not intend to pursue

serious study in these fields has declined considerably since the early

1960s. These assessments are discussed in Section VB.

In addition, indicators of the qualifications of students who enter

college intending to pursue science or engineering majors or of those who

enter graduate school in those fields provide no information about the

adequacy of the education they receive in those institutions. Alull

assessment of the adequacy of professional science and engineering

education would of necessity require reference to present and future

expectations of prospective employers. However, even in the absence of

such information, there are indications that the U.S. higher education

system is under considerable strain and is not able to provide as high

quality education in science and, more particularly, in engineering as many

specialists believe it could.
REFERENCES -- SECTION II

1. National Academy of Engineering Task Force on Engineering Education.

Issues in_Bngineering Education: k Framework for Analysis.

Washington, D.C.: National Academy of Engineering, 1980, pp. 15-16.

Paper submitted by the American Society for Engineering Education

(Appendix D -2).

This point was also emphasized by several evaluators of a draft of this

review, including Donald Glower (The Ohio State University), Donald Marlowe

(American Society for Engineering Education), and F. Karl Willenbrock

(Southern Methodist University).

2. Current spot shortages in industry in several engineering fields and in

scientific subdisciplines were reported by participants in National

Research Council Seminars V-A and B (Appendix E). Their existence was also

noted by several evaluators of an early draft of this review, including

Lewis Branscomb (International Business Machines Co.), William Hubbard (The

Upjohn Co.), and J.E. Stevenot (Proctor and Gamble Co.).

3. National Council of Teachers of Mathematics, Press Release, October 19,

1978, Reston, VA.; B.G. Aldridge, "Announcement of Results of the National

Science Teachers Association Survey (1980)." Washington, D.C.: NSTA.

4. NSF Division of Science Resources Study (unpublished report). Employment

and Training Report of the President. 1979.

5. Engineers Joint Council, Engineering Manpower Commission. Placement of,

gnzineering and Tegbncloay Graduate. 1979. New York, October 1979.

6. A Jun 17, 1980 news release from the College Placement Council

(Bethlehem, PA) notes that the number of job offers to new engineering

baccalaureates has increased by 21 percent since June 1979.

7. National Research Council Seminar IV-B (Appendix E).

8. op. cit., Note 2.

9. Based on data in recent annual issues of Lummary Resort. Daatoral

Reoigients fromLU.S, Universities, published by the National Research

Council.

10. College Placement Council. Salary Suryey-Final Report. Issued annually

from Bethlehem, PA.

11. College Placement Council, Bethlehem, PA. Unpublished survey.

12. on. cit., Note 1.

65
13. Comment on early draft of this review by James G. Ling, Department of

Energy.

14. Office of Higher Education, U.S. Department of Agriculture, "Report of

Manpower Assessment Project," 1980 (unpublished).

15. The existence of shortages of chemical engineers was cited by Lewis

Branscomb (International Business Machines Co.) and J.E. Stevenot (Proctor

and Gamble Co.) in critiques of an early draft of this review.

16. National Science Foundation. ZrakAtlanaalqienALAALFinginAering.

Doctorate_Sutolv and Utilization: 19$2,_Anstagji. NSF Report #79-303.

17. National Science Board. Science Indicators. 1478. Washington, D.C.: U.S.

Government Printing Office, 1979, p. 119 (Table 5-2).

18. Douglas Braddock. "The Oversupply of Ph.D.'s to Continue Through 1985."

rontblv Labor Review, October 1978, pp. 48-50.

19. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, Ph.D.'s in

computer science grew from 107 in 1970 to 196 in 1978. Such growth in new

graduates is not expected to be sufficient to meet the anticipated rapid

expansion in industrial and academic demand for doctorates in this field.

See also Jerome A. Feldman and William R. Sutherland. "Rejuvenating

Experimental Computer Science." Communications of the ACM: v. 22, #9.

Sept. 1979, pp. 497-502.

20. pp._git., Note 1.

21. Several persons expressed this belief in assessments of an early draft of

this review. They include Kenneth Baker (Harvey Mudd College), Lewis

Branscomb (International Business Machines Co.), Donald Glower (The Ohio

State University), John Whinnery (University of California, Berkeley), and

F. Karl Willenbrock (Southern Methodist University).

22. OD. cit., Note 17, pp. 125-129.

23. National Merit Scholarship Corporation, Acnual Report (issued yearly).

66
SECTION III. SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING EDUCATION

AT UNIVERSITIES AND FOUR-YEAR COLLEGES

A. INTRODUCTION

The Nation's higher educational system has been the foundation of the

extraordinary growth and superb quality of the science and technology that

gave the United States preeminence in these fields during World War II and

the succeeding quarter century. Since the early 1970s, however, American

colleges and universities--including their science and engineering

faculties--have had to reassess their functions and role io American

society because of the effects of demographic change, increasing financial

pressures, and new social and economic imperatives.

In particular:

o Except in engineering and the computer professions, undergraduate

science enrollments, which expanded dramatically in the 1950s and 19608,

have generally leveled off or declined1/ Since the size of the 18- to

24-year-old age group will continue to decrease over the next twenty years,

there is no doubt that the competition for undergraduates among American

colleges and universities will continue. 2/

o Student populations have become more heterogenous, and their

preparation, interests, and needs more diversified, as larger proportions

of minorities, women, and adults attend college (Appendix C).
o Costs are outstripping income for virtually all colleges and

universities, because of inflation, a leveling off of income from tuitions

and fees and for private institutions, decreasing returns on endowment

investments.3/ Research universities began to experience additional

financial pressures due to decreased Federal research support in the early

1970s.

/ While the level of research support has increased since 1975, the

effects of the earlier declines are still evident. 5/

Rising costs coupled with high starting salaries for new engineers and

computer professionals at all degree levels have led to urgent and

immediate problems for schools and departments in these fields:

c The number of doctoral degrees granted continues to decline;

6/

o Engineering and computer professional faculties are understaffed,

with little prospect for early improvement;7"

o Facilities needed to conduct research have become obsolete, and

apparatus to instruct students in state-of-the-art industrial practice is

generally unavailable. 8/

The demographic and financial factors noted above have also led to

stresses in other parts of the higher education system which, if not

relieved, could result in future dislocations:

o Decreasing growth rates of support for scientific research and

declining enrollments have led to a static hiring situation in university

1 4.-

68

.)
science departments. With so few openings for the new generation of

scientists, there is a distinct possibility that university science

faculties will lack the flexibility to pursue innovative research and

instruction

o Obsolescence of research and teaching equipment, while not as

severe as in engineering, is also a growing problem for science departments

at both the graduate and undergraduate levels; 10/

o Because of generally tight budgets, science courses and curricula

in many four-year colleges are falling behind the times, and faculty at

these institutions have decreasing opportunities to keep up with their

fields.

11/

The remainder of this section analyzes information from pertinent

literature and from contributors to this review under the following

headings: (B) The Education of Engineers and Computer Professionals, (C)

Science Education at the Graduate Level; and (D) Science Education at the

Undergraduate Level. Section IV considers: (t Science and Education at

Community Colleges; (B) Continuing Education in Science, Technology and

Engineering; and (C) Informal Opportunities for Science and Technology

Education.

B. 'THE EDUCATION OF ENGINEERS AND COMPUTER PROFESSIONALS

At present, the market for engineers in most fields and at all degree

levels remains tight (Section II). Undergraduate enrollments in

69

1t
engineering have been increasing since 1973, and the number of bachelor's

degrees awarded has increased since 1976. 121' Part of this increase is due

to the entry of women who, in the fall of 1979, composed about 15 percent

of freshman enrollments in engineering. 13/ The number of master's degrees

granted in engineering has leveled off, and Ph.D. production has declined

by 30 percent since 1972. 1 These trends are due, in part, to the

impressive starting salaries that bachelor's degree engineers can command,

coupled with the decreased availability of fellowships and traineeships for

graduate study.

15/

The numbers of candidates for both the master's and the

Ph.D. degree exhibited slight increases between 1978 and 1979.

16/

However,

it is still too early to determine whether these increases mark a

significant reversal in the earlier trends.

About one-third of all Ph.D. engineering candidates are foreign

nationals, two-thirds of whom are in the U.S. on student visas. 17/

Although many of those in the latter category may remain in this country,

the total number of new Ph.D.'s who enter the U.S. labor force each year

will be less than the number who receive their degrees.

Computer professional fields represent the single broad area in which

there are clear shortages of personnel at all degree levels at the present

time and where those shortages are projected to continue through 1990

(Section II-A and B). People who enter the computer science professions

receive their degrees from several types of college and university

departments, most of which also offer instruction in other, related

specialities. These departments include mathematics, electrical

engineering, and business administration, in addition to those designated

70 -1 Y.;
as computer science departments. 18/ Trends for computer professionals have

been similar to those for engineering: namely, rapidly rising undergraduate

enrollments and decreasing Ph.D. production.

Unlike the traditional engineering fields, however, the computer

professions are relatively young disciplines that did not even constitute a

separate, coherent field twenty years ago. Consequently, the inflow of

people trained in other specialties continues to be much higher than for

any other fields (Section II-A). Indeed, most senior faculty in

departments specifically designated as computer science departments

received their Ph.D.'s in some other specialty. 19/

Declining Ph.D. production and the availability of more attractive

employment opportunities in industry for persons with doctorates in

engineering and the computer professions have led to a shortage of both

junior and senior faculty in these fields.

20/ A survey of representative

engineering schools indicates that there are as many as 2,000 unfilled

positions in engineering. Likewise, there are approximately 200 vacancies

in departments that specialize in the computer professions.

21/ These

vacancies are straining the capacity of these schools and departments. The

size of many undergraduate classes has increased beyond what some experts

regard as desirable for effective instruction.

22/ Moreover, the decreasing

availability of graduate students to serve as teaching assistants has

further added to the burden on senior faculty, leaving them with less time

for individual student contact and research. 23/

71

ie
A good deal of the laboratory equipment and the physical facilities

being used for both research and teaching purposes in university

engineering and computer profession departments was acquired during the

1960s. Their obsolescence has been cited as a severe problem for education

in these fields. 2/

Lack of access to state-of-the-art research facilities

for university faculty and graduate students decreases the attractiveness

of academic careers and contributes to the engineering and computer

profession faculty shortage problem. The obsolescence of instructional

equipment implies that part of the education that undergraduate engineers

and computer professionals receive is itself obsolete vis-a-vis current

industrial practice.

Engineering and the computer professions have always been strongly

influenced by technical innovation and commercial opportunity. Throughout

the 1950s and 1960s and into the early 1970s, these stimulated growth in

university research and graduate education. During those years, research

in these fields carried out in university laboratories led to results that

catalyzed a number of significant industrial innovations. Industries for

their part greatly expanded their research efforts and their investments in

research facilities at a time when funds for these increasingly

sophisticated facilities were becoming difficult for university

laboratories to acquire and maintain.25/ According to one specialist,

underinvestments in engineering facilities, equipment, and instrumentation

during the 1970s resulted in an accumulated shortfall of about $750 million

in U.S. engineering schools at the beginning of the 19805.

26/

72

'':)
Thus, the noncompetitiveness of academic salaries, while an obvious

contributing factor to the engineering and computer professional faculty

problem, may not be of overriding importance. University faculty have

traditionally been willing to forego higher salaries outside of academia in

exchange for opportunities to conduct research and work with good graduate

students in a university setting. However, many observers believe that

difficulties in obtaining research support, lack of stability in Federal

research support and, most importantly, the existence of greatly superior

research facilities in industry have all contributed to the decreasing

attractiveness of academic careers.

27/

The obsolescence of instructional equipment and facilities in

engineering schools has led to a somewhat different problem. During the

1970s, computer-assisted methods in manufacturing have begun to provide

important gains in productivity for some large U.S. industrial companies,

and are good examples of the dramatic changes that are occurring in

engineering practice. However, the apparatus required to teach these

methods to students is generally unavailable to engineering schools. In

fact, a good deal of the instruction now being offered may be obsolete

simply because it makes use of obsolete equipment. A similar situation is

evident in many computer profession departments. While this situation may

not pose significant problems for the large employers of engineers that can

afford on-the-job training for nawly-hired personnel, specialists argue

that it could have appreciable affects on smaller companies and industries

which traditionally have counted on new graduates to keep them abreast of

the latest developments.

28/
The faculty shortage and equipment obsolescence problems have led some

specialists to conclude that the capacity of engineering schools and

computer profession departments to accept and provide an adequate education

to all qualified applicants may be reached during the present decade.

Additionally, the rigidity implied by the strained capacity of these

schools and departments limits their ability to respond to changing demands

of the engineering labor market. It is probably the case that long-term

solutions to the faculty shortage, equipment obsolescence, and rigidity

problems must derive from the establishment of close working relationships

between universities and industry. For example, industry could make its

unique research facilities available to university faculty, offer

sabbatical year arrangements whereby university faculty would engage in

industrial research while industrial engineers and computer specialists

taught and conducted research in university departments, and developed work

study programs for students at all levels--undergraduate, graduate, and

post-doctoral. 29/ However, there is some evidence that current tax,

patent, anti-trust, and copyright laws and regulations are creating

barriers to more effective university-industry cooperation.

30/

Given the long training cycle that characterizes the formal

educational process, even a much more flexible system than presently exists

could never hope to respond without an appreciable time lag bp rapidly

changing demands for specific types of engineering and scientific training.

Thus, while market forces will almost certainly relieve spot shortages that

currently exist in specific engineering subfields, spot shortages in other

subfields that cannot be identified at present are almost certain to occur

in the future even if, as anticipated (Section II-B), the aggregate supply

1!1
of engineers is sufficient. This supposition argues in favor of closer

university-industry cooperation in anticipating and preparing for future

demands. It also argues for engineering curricula that provides a broad

conceptual foundation in addition to training in specific techniques and

thus provides new graduates with the capability to retrain themselves in

fields that may be somewhat different from those of their original major.

In the latter regard, it is worth noting that the dramatic changes

that have taken place in engineering practice and rapid changes in computer

technology and its utilization, coupled with the strained capacities of

engineering schools that have resulted from faculty shortages and

obsolescent facilities and equipment, have intensified a long-standing

philosophical debate among engineering educators and industrial employers

about the appropriate content of the engineering curriculum. This debate

focuses on the optimum balance to be achieved between science-based

training and training in engineering design, development, and

production.31"

Participants on both sides of this debate recognize that since science

and technology are closely related activities, science and engineering

education must continue to share many commonalities. However, they also

suggest that there are important distinctions between science and

engineering education and that to blur those distinctions by lumping

together problems in the two areas works to the detriment of each.

In particular, a bachelor's degree in engineering, unlike a bachelor's

degree in one of the sciences, is a professional degree that can lead
directly to licensing and certification. Thus, it is argued, engineering

schools should in some senses be regarded as equivalent to schools of

medicine or law rather than undergraduate schools of arts and sciences.

Several indicators give additional weight to the distinction between

engineering and science education: pressures toward a five-year bachelor's

degree course in engineering, the higher costs of training undergraduate

engineers relative to most undergraduate scientists, the desirability of

industrial internships for undergraduate and graduate students, the

attractive salaries currently available to engineering faculty, and the

increasing numbers of engineers who take advantage of continuing education

opportunities offered by industry or who seek advanced degrees in

mid-career.

The debate about whether and to what extent engineering schools should

adopt a so-called medical school model and divorce themselves from their

traditional association with faculties of arts and sciences is far from

settled, and probably will not be resolved in a manner that satisfies all

participants in the debate about the content of the engineering school

curriculum. Specialists point out that engineering schools differ in the

mix of science-based and practice-based curricula they offer, in

recognition of the fact that both types of education are necessary, though

individual students may choose to concentrate more heavily on one type of

training than the other. Indeed, the desirability to preserve a broad

range of options in engineering education has been cited as a fundamental

reason for the conviction, among educators, that the multiple stresses on

the system need to be relieved.

32/

76
C. SCIENCE EDUCATION AT THE GRADUATE LEVEL

As discussed in detail in Section II, current indicators point to

excesses over demand in the number of degrees granted in all broad fields

of science (i.e., mathematical, physical, life, and social sciences), and

projections indicate that this situation will persist in 1990. However.

spot shortages are presently reported in a number of scientific

subspecialties, particularly at the Ph.D. level.

Unlike the case of engineering and the computer professions, a

bachelor's and to some extent a master's degree in science or mathematics

is usually not regarded as a professional degree. That is, students may

major in one of the sciences for a number of reasons besides aspiring to

research careers in their major fields. The life sciences, for example,

are considered to be desirable major fields for pre-medical students.

In contrast, students who pursue Ph.D. degrees in science or

mathematics have traditionally aspired to research positions in university,

industry or government laboratories, though many also obtain employment in

nonscientific professions (Section II, Table III). It is therefore

convenient to discuss the current status of higher education in science at

the undergraduate and post-graduate levels separately.

University science departments face a particular set of problems

because of the intimate connection, at the Ph.D. level, between instruction

and research. The rapid university expansion in the 19505 and 1960s was

fueled in part by increasing Federal research grants to universities.

77

1.I 't
These expanding research opportunities, coupled with rising undergraduate

and graduate enrollments, led to rapid growth in the size of many

university science faculties, the establishment of new Ph.D. programs in

several institutions, and promotions to tenure rank for many young

scholars, many of whom are not due to retire until the 1990s. 33/ During

these years university graduate programs in science and mathematics were

sharply focused on preparing students for research and teaching positions

in what appeared to some to be an almost endlessly expanding academic

market. But in the early 1970s, the sizes of science and mathematics

faculties began to stabilize and, in some cases, to decrease as Federal

research support declined and the growth rate of undergraduate enrollments

slowed down.

34/ As a result, junior faculty positions have become

relatively scarce, particularly in physics and mathematics and most of the

social sciences. 35/

Since 1975, the number of Ph.D.'s awarded in the physical and

mathematical sciences has decreased sharply in partial response to the

continuing weak demand in the academic sector, though degrees in the life

and social sciences have remained approximately constant.

36/ As previously

noted, spot shortages in industry are currently reported in several

subfields of physics, chemistry, and biology. Future shortages may also

appear in subareas where opportunities for rapid advances occur because of

unanticipated progress in those areas. Some observers are concerned that

the total number of new Ph.D.'s (particularly in the physical sciences) may

not be sufficient to respond to these opportunities. 37/ However, in view

of the findings reported in Section II-13 regarding the sufficiency of

Ph.D.'s in all broad fields of science, the capability of university

78 1-
science departments to equip Ph.D. candidates to take advantage of such new

opportunities in industry by changing the focus of their specialty may be a

more reasonable ground for concern. 38/ Several observers also believe that

the lack of opportunity for academic employment might deter the most able

students from pursuing graduate study in the sciences. Graduate Record

Examination scores indicate, however, that on the average the

qualifications of college seniors seeking admission to graduate science

departments have remained approximately constant for a decade (Section

Concern has been expressed that with decreasing Ph.D. enrollments in

the mathematical, physical, and life sciences, there may not be enough

qualified candidates to fill vacancies in colleges and universities created

by the large numbers of faculty retirements that are anticipated in the

mid-1990s. 39/ The rigidity implied by heavily tenured faculties rather

than a particular age distribution per se is a serious problem. Such

rigidities may limit the ability of colleges and universities to alter the

allocation of scarce resources among teaching faculties as may be demanded

by changing market conditions. Finally, the fact that many science and

mathematics departments cannot bring in "new blood" could hamper their

ability to provide innovative instruction and research opportunities to

their students.

The direct effects of rising costs and changing demographic and market

trends on the overall, short-term capacity of the academic system to

educate sufficient numbers of well-trained scientists are probably less

important than their probable long-range effects on the research

79 1 !G
capabilities of university science departments. The quality of graduate

education in science is closely related to the research opportunities

available to Ph.D. students. Therefore, any changes in university research

capabilities will of necessity have a direct effect on education at that

level, particularly on the capability of graduate departments to orient

their programs toward a predominantly industrial as opposed to an academic

market.

4a/

The high cost of maintaining existing laboratory apparatus and of

replacing obsolete equipment has been cited as a serious problem in this

regard for university science departments as it is for engineering schools.

Even the Nation's major research universities have not kept pace in meeting

instrumentation needs. A good deal of research in the natural sciences

requires capital investment in buildings and large research installations.

Laboratory equipment and special instrumentation are also capital costs,

but their useful life is typically shorter than that of buildings.

The major role that university users play in the development of

scientific instrumentation has been demonstrated in a recent study of 111

scientific instrument innovations which culminated in the successful

commercialization of those instruments. The instruments selected for study

were of special importance to chemical and biological research. Of the 44

improvements in the basic instruments which were incorporated into a

commercial product, users rather than instrument manufacturers dominated

the innovation process in 81 percent of the cases. It is of particular

significance that, of the users who contributed to the innovations, 72

percent were employed by universities or affiliated research institutes

80 1 !
rather than by private manufacturing firms or other nonuniversity

organizations

Equipment-intensive research areas such as physics, engineering,

chemistry, and the life sciences have experienced a decade in which the

development, purchase, and maintenance costs of instrumentation have

escalated rapidly, while the state-of-the-art apparatus, needed to conduct

research at the cutting edge of science, has become increasingly

sophisticated--and expensive. 42/ The Science Council of Canada estimates

that equipment costs due to increasing sophistication rose at an average

rate of 4 percent above inflation during the 19708.43/ However, Federal

funds for research equipment declined during this same period. The

fraction of NTH research project support allocated to permanent equipment

declined from 11.7 percent in 1966 to 5.7 percent in 1974; NSF showed a

decline in the proportion of grant funds for permanent equipment from 11.2

percent in 1966 to an average of 7.1 percent for the years 1969 to 1976.

44/

Industrial laboratories, in contrast, have continued to equip

themselves with needed scientific apparatus. A recent comparisco of

university instrumentation inventories with those of two leading commercial

laboratories reveals that the median age of university equipment is twice

that of commercial laboratory instrumentation. 45/ This survey indicated

that in the leading industrial laboratories, the pace of research is

limited by the imagination and capacity of the engineers and aoientists

rather than by the apparatus available to them. One observer summarized

this disparity with the remark that "The ivory towers are now in

industry."

46/

81

1... -1
0

Greater flexibility in Federal research grant and contract

administration that would encourage pooling of equipment funds and sharing

apparatus between university departments has been suggested as a partial

remedy to the equipment obsolescence problem. Other suggested measures

include further development of regional instrumentation centers and

enhanced university-industry cooperation, as discussed in Section

While these measures could increase the accessibility of up-to-date

apparatus to Ph.D. students, most of them would tend toward centralization

of research facilities with the result that many advanced graduate students

and faculty would spend less time in residence on their own campuses.

Several disciplines and subdisciplines, such as oceanography and

high-energy physics, have long since adapted to the necessity of using

centralized research facilities. Thus, national laboratories (or Federally

Funded Research and Development Centers) have the dual function of carrying

out their own intermural research programs in these fields and maintaining

sophisticated research facilities for university-based user groups. One

result has been that personnel at such laboratories often assume the role

of virtual thesis advisors to advanced graduate students. Such

arrangements have permitted substantial research progress, and some

specialists believe that they will have to be extended to other fields of

science as the cost of maintaining adequate laboratory facilities exceeds

the capacity of individual universities or university consortia. However,

the effects on the teaching capacities of university science departments of

a more wide-ranging centralization have yet to ba fully assessed.

47/

82
D. SCIENCE EDUCATION AT THE UNDERGRADUATE LEVEL

During the period of rapid expansion of university science

departments, the primary thrust of undergraduate major programs both in

universities and four-year colleges was to prepare students for graduate or

professional study. Since Graduate Record Examination scores of seniors

who intend to pursue graduate study in science remain constant, presumably

undergraduate departments are fulfilling that traditional role adequately

(Section II -D).

Even during the period of expansion, however, more students were

awarded bachelor's degrees in science and mathematics than sought admission

to graduate or professional schools. Some of these students entered

science-related occupations; others, by their own preference, sought other

types of employment. That situation has not changed, despite decreasing

undergraduate enrollments

Some new bachelor's degree recipients in the physical sciences who

enter the labor market directly after graduation find industrial positions

that could also be filled by engineering graduates. The demand for such

graduates can be high during periods when the market for new bachelor's

level engineers is tight, and thus they provide a degree of flexibility to

the industrial science and engineering labor market.

49

Since many undergraduate science majors neither pursue graduate work

in science nor enter science-related occupations, it can be presumed that

they perceive advantages in having a strong background in science and

83 1 .2
mathematics even though they have no intention of pursuing science-related

careers. However, such students may hope to make some use of their special

education.

If, as many believe, it is advantageous to the Nation to populate

nonscientific professions such as business, law, and journalism with

scientifically qualified people then the requirements of those who have the

interest and capacity to pursue rigorous studies in science and

mathematics, but who do not intend to pursue graduate work, ought to be

addressed. There is little evidence to suggest that this is happening,

either at four-year colleges or universities. Indeed, undergraduate

science education has been criticized as being too theoretical and esoteric

for most students, and still oriented toward those who are intent on

graduate study. Neither the needs of those who intend to enter the labor

force directly after graduation nor those who intend to pursue

nonscientific careers appear to have been adequately addressed.50"

Historically, a substantial proportion of students entering Ph.D.

programs in the sciences have come from four-year liberal arts colleges.

Like the universities, these institutions are experiencing stresses due to

changing demographic patterns and continuing high inflation rates. Their

science and mathematics departments have also been affected by declining

Federal support for curriculum and faculty development. As a result,

faculty members in science departments at many four-year collegen feel that

they are falling behind in their ability to provide quality, up-to-date

education to their students.

51/ Yet these faculty are usually more heavily

involved in teaching than their colleagues in university departments who

84 19
also pursue research activities. Therefore, provided adequate support were

forthcoming, four-year college faculty could be in a good position to

develop new types of undergraduate science and mathematics curricula.

In addition to undergraduates who major in science or mathematics

without planning to pursue graduate study in those fields, there are others

who do not major in science or mathematics but who take courses in these

fields either as a part of their general education or because either they

or their faculty advisers regard some preparation in science and

mathematics as desirable or necessary in their intended occupations.

There is no consensus about the best content of science and

mathematics courses for nonmajors. Many departments offer special courses

for them which are usually less rigorous and more descriptive than their

major courses. However, such courses may not satisfy the requirements of

students who need a reasonable familiarity with science for occupational

reasons. In addition there is anecdotal evidence that some students avoid

more rigorous courses because of poor preparation in mathematics or because

they have the reputation for being too difficult.

Finally, there are numerous college students who take no science or

mathematics at all and, therefore, many who have no exposure to formal

science beyond 10th grade biology or to mathematics beyond 10th grade

geometry. It does not follow, however, that these students are not

interested in the relationships of science, technology, and society. On

the contrary, a recent survey conducted by the American Association for the

Advancement of Science identified over 500 American colleges and
universities that offer at least one course in this area or in fields such

as the history or sociology of science. Almost 120 multi-course programs

in the science, technology, and society area were identified among these

500 institutions. Many of these programs are interdisciplinary

undertakings between science, or engineering, and social science and/or

humanities departments, and student enrollments in most of them appear to

be reasonably good. 52/

Interdisciplinary courses in science, technology, and society address

concerns likely to be of importance to students regardless of their future

occupations. Therefore, their apparent relative popularity is a positive

development. However, few such courses lead to familiarity or competence

with the concepts and processes of science and technology themselves. In

some cases, descriptive courses already offered by many science departments

may be adequate for these purposes, but many contributors to this review

believe that a different approach is in order, and that the advent of

modern electronics--calculators, computers, and video systems, for

example--may provide the requisite means.53/ Since electronics is

transforming the ways in which business and industry are conducted, it

would be useful to incorporate it into the educational system. Computers

could be used to stimulate nonscientists toward a greater interest in

science and alleviate problems many students face because of inadequate

preparation in mathematics.

9 .)

86
REFERENCES -- SECTION III

1. "Resident degree-credit enrollment it institutions of higher education..."

Digest of Education Statistics 1977, National Council for Educational

Statistics (NCES), 1978, for years from 1950 to 1970, p. 102, Table 3.1.

"Total enrollment in institutions of higher education..." The Condition of.

Bducatioa, 1980 edition, NCES, for seven years from 1970 to 1978, p. 88,

Table 86.

2. "Total enrollment...fall 1963 to 1986" projections of Education Statistics

to t166-87, National Council for Educational Statistics. Washington, D.C.:

U.S. Government Printing Office, 1978, p. 20, Table 5.

3. A general discussion of the changing picture of higher education finance

may be found in Scholars. Dollars and Bureaucrats, Chester E. Fran, Jr.

Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1978.

4. "Basic research expenditures in universities and colleges by Source:

1960-78," ,Science Indicators 1978. National Science Foundation, 1979,

p. 199, Table 3-12.

5. The general trend i3 discussed in B.L.R. Smith and J.T. Karlesky The State

of Academic Selena. Change Magazine Press, 1977.

6. Earned Degrees Conferred. National Center for Education Statistics Annual

Series-1980.

7. 16121112illilgillatrillS-EstaltakaLAiralIMrkEQEAllalLthi. Task Force on

Engineering Education of the National Academy of Engineering. 1980. A

figure of 2000 unfilled engineering faculty positions was provided by 150

deans attending the Engineering Deans Conference at Williamsburg, Virginia,

in February 1980. They extrapolated from knowledge of their own

institutions to the total universe of 250 engineering institutions.

8. . 9. National Research Council Seminar V-A (Appendix E). The NRC report,

Pesearch Exeellenee Through the Year 2000, discusses the academic supply

and demand picture (Appendix F).

10. The equipment problem has been widely discussed. In Note 5 above, Smith

and Karlesky treat it in some detail and the paper submitted by the

Association of American Universities also includes the problem among the

issues they raise.

11. This point was emphasized by several contributors to this review, including

the participants in NRC Seminar III-8 (Appendix E), B.F. Howell, Jr., The

Pennsylvania State University (Appendix D-2), and D. Kenneth Baker, Harvey

Mudd College, in an evaluation of a draft of this review.

12. Engineering and Teohnolomv Enrollments. Fall ) 979. Part I, p. 10.

Engineering Manpower Commission of the American Association of Engineering

Societies.

87 td.?.1
13. ibid, pp. 19-26.

14. OD. pit., Note 6.

15. Paper submitted by the American Society for Engineering Education

(Appendix D-2).

16. op. qt., Note 12.

17. Based on data in recent annual issues of Zummary Report. Doctoral

ffiecipients from U.S. Universities published by the National Research

Council.

18. At four-year colleges, computer professionals often receive their degrees

from mathematics departments. The ASEE (Note 13) maintains that

engineering schools have assumed the burden of educating computer

professionals at the graduate level, noting that the 1980 Engineering

Graduate Study Directory shows 105 entries for computer science, 119 for

civil engineering, and 139 for electrical engineering.

19. Lee Grozdin. "The Field Mobility of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers."

(NRC Paper, Appendix D-1).

20. OD. cit., Notes 7, 15.

21. Jerome A. Feldman and William R. Sutherland, "Rejuvenating Experimental

Computer Science." Communications of the AO, Sept. 1979, v. 22, #9,

pp. 497-502.

22. fit., Notes 7, 15.

23. op. W., Notes 7, 15.

24. The equipment problem in engineering education has been cited by many

sources; for example, in papers submitted by the American Society for

Engineering Education; Dr. Donald Glower, Dean of the Ohio State University

College of Engineering; and the Texas Deans of Engineering (Appendix D-2).

The special problem for small companies is discussed in thgeacturing

Xechnologv--A Changing Challenge to Improved Productivity. U.S. General

Accounting Office, 1976. See also Notes 7 and 15.

25. Association of American Universities (AAU), The ,9eientifie Instrumentation

Needs of Research Universities. Washington, D.C.: AAU, June 1980.

26. saLsit.., Note 24, Donald Glower.

27. OD. cit., Notes 7 and 25. See also National Commission on Research,

Funding_ Mechanisms: Balancing Obiectives and Resources in University

Beseatgb, Washington, D.C.: National Commission on Research, May 1980.

28. o11. DIL., Note 24.

88
29. These possibilities are discussed in more detail by Feldman and Sutherland.

stz111:, Note 21.

30. The Domestic Policy Review on Industrial Innovation, whose results were

announced in October 1979, noted such laws and regulations may in some

cases have adverse effects on innovation and productivity. See also

Feldman and Sutherland, se cit., Note 21.

31. DD. at., Note 7.

32. sn. slt., Notes 7 and 15.

33. OD. cit., Note 9. See also D. Allan Bromley, "U.S. Universities and the

Federal Government." and Francis G. Slack Lecture, Vanderbilt University,

Nashville, TN, March 12, 1979, pp. 12-25.

34. 12241a., Note 1.

35. salt21Au_, Note 9.

36. on. cit., Note 6.

37. NRC Seminar V-A and B (Appendix E). See also D. Allan Bromley, so. cit.

Note 33, pp. 27-39.

38. See, e.g., M.D. Fiske, ed., The Transition in Physics Doctoral Employment

1960-1190. New York, N.Y.: American Physical Society, August 1979.

39. OD. clt.s Note 9.

40. oD. cit., Note 38.

41. American Association of Universities. OD. cit., Note 25, p. 3.

42. OD. cit., Notes 10 and 25.

43. Cited in "Equipment Needs and Utilization," Final Report of Task Group #5

to the National Science Foundation Advisory Council, p. 11. 1979.

44. DD_. at., Note 25, p. 11.

45. op. cit., Note 25, pp. 12-14.

46. OD. cit., Note 25, p. 20.

47. The growing importance of national laboratories for university research and

some possible effects of such centralization on advanced Ph.D. education in

science has been considered by National Commission on Research, =gating.

Personneli_ An Essay _cn EducatiPn_and_Research.Policy. Washington, D.C.:

National Commission on Research, August 1980.

48. op. cit., Note 4, p. 119, Table 5-2.

89 1 2 G
X19. Business- Higher Education Forum, "Engineering Manpower Forum: Must It

Always Be Feast or Famine?" Washington, DC. April 1980 (unpublished).

This paper breaks down the supply of new bachelor's degree level entrants

into the following four categories, with approximate percentages in recent

years indicated in parentheses: engineering graduates (70 percent);

immigrant engineers (5 percent); other recent graduates (8 percent); and

transfers in (17 percent). The recent graduate category consists primarily

of bachelor's degree recipients in mathematics and physical science; the

transfers in category is composed of technicians and underutilized

scientists upgraded on the job.

50. National Research Council Seminar IV-A (Appendix E).

51. sm. nit., Note 11.

52. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Aesource Direntorv_to

fah _,. .. , _,, , , it a ns of Science

AAATechnolomy. Washington, D.C.: 1978.

53. National Science Foundation. Technoloav in Science Education: The Next.

1,20_10aza. Washington, D.C.: 1979.

90
SECTION IV: ADDITIONAL COMPONENTS OF POST-SECONDARY SCHOOL

SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING EDUCATION

Most contributors to this review agree about the need to devote

more attention to education in science and technology for those who are

not--and will not become--professional scientists and engineers, and to

opportunities for scientists, engineers, technicians, and teachers to

upgrade and maintain their knowledge and skills. This section reviews

the roles played at present by: (A) community colleges; (B) continuing

education centers; and (0 the mass media, in pursuing these and other

tasks associated with science and engineering education.

A. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION AT COMMUNITY COLLEGES

Public community colleges have constituted the fastest growing

segment of higher education over the last two decades. Between 1960 and

1977, 71 percent of the institutions established were two-year

colleges .1' Enrollment in these colleges grew by 169 percent from 1967

to 1977, compared to an enrollment growth of 65 percent for all

institutions over that time period.2/

Prior to the growth era, two-year colleges functioned mainly to

provide the initial portions of a college transfer program and many

still consider this function significant. Many community colleges still

serve as the beginning of four-year degrees for many students. They are

particularly important as a source of technicians who later become

engineers either by going on directly to an engineering school or as a
result of on-the-job training. About the same proportion of Blacks

attended two-year colleges as attended four-year colleges and

universities. Hispanics were more likely to be enrolled in two-year

colleges than in other institutions. 3/

But the growth in numbers of two-year colleges was accompanied by

an expansion of their scope to include a host of vocational programs.

This included two-year colleges assuming functions formerly handled

outside the formal educational system such as training of police,

fire-fighting personnel, and technicians.

Two-year colleges play an important role in training technicians.

Formerly, technicians were typically trained on the job and to this day

a substantial amount of on-the-job upgrading of technical personnel

occurs. However, over the past decade the number of students earning

associate degrees (requiring at least two years, but less than four

years of work beyond high school) has risen by almost two-thirds, from

252,610 in 1970-71 to 412,246 in 1977-78. But associate degrees in

science and engineering-related fields have risen at an even faster

rate, more than doubling during that period. Among these fields, health

services and paramedical degree-holders almost tripled; in 1970-71,

21,269 such degrees were awarded, increasing to 62,030 in 1977-78. At

the same time, degrees in natural science technologies more than

doubled, degrees in mechanical and engineering technology grew by

two-thirds, while those in data processing increased by 25 percent.

4/

1 9 9

92
Science and engineering education in two-year colleges shares a

number of problems with the higher education system regarding faculty,

curricula, and equipment (Section IV-C). Public two-year colleges also

face some unique problems: low retention rates; increased competition

from comprehensive colleges and universities searching for students;

decreased funding from the local sources on which the colleges heavily

rely (financing of two-year colleges comes heavily from local tax

sources); increased competition from electronic means of delivering

education; and poor preparation in mathematics on the part of students,

which absorbs considerable resources for remedial teaching. 5/

Teachers of science, mathematics, and technical subjects in

community colleges have problems different from those of their

colleagues in four-year institutions. Their outstanding problem, at

least in mathematics, is teaching unmotivated students. Little

systematic information is available either about the quality of their

course offerings in science and technology, or about the needs of

industry for their graduates. Since attainment of important long-term

needs will depend heavily on the technical competence of the skilled

U.S. work force, it would be desirable to gather information to permit

an assessment of the most appropriate ways to exploit the unique

potential of community colleges to serve the needs of local markets. It

would also be useful to provide opportunities for sustained, substantive

interactions between teachers of science and mathematics at two-year

colleges and their colleagues in universities and industry to improve

coordination among the various components of the post-secondary school

science and engineering education system.

6/

93
B. CONTINUING EDUCATION IN SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND ENGINEERING

Change is intrinsic to science and technology, and the structure of

science and technology fields often alters as their content develops.

New fields spin off from old, and the boundaries between separate fields

may coalesce to form new interdisciplinary fields with lives of their

own. Nuclear engineering, computer science, and environmental science

provide three recent examples of such structural developments. Such

changes depend on the occupational mobility of scientists and

engineers - -their ability to sense new opportunities and move into new

specialty areas. Traditionally, preparation for Ph.D. degrees in

science and engineering has provided a foundation that has facilitated

later field mobility. The organization of the academic scientific

community has encouraged mobility by publishing professional journals

and organizing meetings where research scientists and engineers can

interact with their colleagues. Lee Grodzins estimates that 25 percent

of all doctoral scientists make a major change away from the broad field

of their Ph.D. during their career, and 30 to 40 percent of the rest

change their specialty. 7/

Field mobility is also essential in industry, particularly for

engineers, to permit the exploitation of new opportunities and to help

relieve personnel shortages in particular subfields. Organized

continuing education programs are frequently used to facilitate

mobility. Continuing education can serve other Purposes as well:

upgrading the skills of technicians to the level of a bachelor's degree

in engineering, allowing mid-career engineers to earn Ph.D. degrees, or

94 131.
broadening the skills of scientists and engineers so that they qualify

for jobs in related fields or in other nonscience and engineering jobs.

It can take many forms: informal on-the-job activities, short courses

and institutes, correspondence courses, courses offered by television,

videotape or newspaper, and formal courses on college campuses.

8

./

Although data are fragmentary, there are indications that

significant numbers of scientists and engineers take advantage of

opportunities for continuing education. During the academic year

1975-76, 56 universities offered over 3,500 credit courses for

scientists and engineers-47 percent of them on campus and 53 percent

off campus, and over 30,000 scientists and engineers were enrolled in

them. During the same year, almost 5,000 separate noncredit continuing

education courses were offered to scientists and engineers-72 percent

by universities and 28 percent by professional science and engineering

societies. Almost 190,000 scientists were enrolled in them. 9/ No firm

data about the number of mid-career professional engineers who are

pursuing Ph.D. degrees are available, but anecdotal information suggests

that the number may be increasing. 10/

Given anticipated future changes in science and particularly

technology, continuing education --both on the job and on the campus - -is

likely to become an even more important feature of the education of

scientists and engineers. However, according to a report prepared for

the Industrial Research Ins:itute, industry has assumed a

disproportionate share of the responsibility for the continuing

education of scientists and, more particularly, technicians and
engineers) " Moreover, many universities experience difficulty in

developing effective continuing education programs for industrially

employed scientists and engineers due to academic reward structures that

favor research, publication, and the teaching of traditional degree

candidates over continuing education. Finally, continuing education at

universities is expected to be completely self-supporting through

tuition receipts.

12/

Some industrial firms, particularly those with large research and

development capabilities, have established wide-ranging continuing

education programs for their personnel. However, most firms must depend

on external sources for continuing education, and often these do not

exist or are inaccessible. Potentially available sources in industry

become increasingly proprietary and unavailable to other firms as the

knowledge base for providing continuing education moves from the

university to industry. Since education is not the primary area of

competence for industrial firms, they would prefer not to compete with

universities in offering it. Yet they find themselves increasingly

forced to do so. 13/

At present, continuing education is a fractionated, uncoordinated

set of operations in which academia, industry, professional societies,

and individual entrepreneurs pursue their own individual paths in

response to what they perceive as their individual needs. There has

been virtually no Federal support for continuing education, in part

bocause the costs of industrial programs have been regarded as business

expenses. However, since continuing education can provide a rapid and

96

,
focused means for relieving spot personnel shortages in specific

subfields and for improving productivity by renewing the skills of

mid-career scientists and engineers in industry, it could provide a

relatively cost-effective means for the Federal Government to intervene

in the science and engineering labor market when clear national needs

require such intervention.

Continuing education is also important to help science and

mathematics teachers in secondary schools, community colleges, and

four-year colleges remain current about new developments in their

fields. Indeed, many school systems either require or provide financial

incentives to public school teachers to take formal post-graduate

courses for credit. During the period of rapid expansion for science

and engineering education in the 1950s and 1960s, summer institutes and

in-service academic year institutes offered a special type of continuing

education opportunity for science and mathematics teachers. These

institutes also offered secondary school teachers the chance for

sustained interaction with university scientists and engineers.

At present, the Federal Government no longer supports such

institutes, although it does provide modest support to other types of

faculty-development programs. In view of the declining condition of

secondary school science and mathematics teaching (Section VI -D) and the

isolation of science and mathematics teachers in community and many

four-year colleges, more substantial faculty development

efforts--including some types of institutes--might be considered as

appropriate policy options.

97
C. INFORMAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION

In addition to organized continuing educational offerings that

focus on upgrading or oroadening particular occupational and

professional skills, there are other types of opportunities for the

general adult population in the United States to acquire information

about science and technology. These informal educational opportunities

are provided through several different types of media: newspapers,

magazines, radio and television (parti.ularly public radio and

television), and science and technology museums and related institutions

such as planetaria, zoos, nature centers, and parks. 14/

The desire of much of the nonscience and engineering public

(estimated as being as large as 18 percent15/) to maintain at least some

contact with developments in science and technology and their

relationships with society is evidenced by the popularity of these media

offerings. littlaw publishes a weekly section on science.

Science '80, the new popular journal of the American Association for the

Advancement of Science, achieved a circulation of 400,000 during its

first six months. The Public Broadcasting Service's (PBS) NOVA

consistently achieves viewer ratings that are among the highest of PBS's

adult program series. If planteria and zoos are included, attendance at

science and technology museums outnumbers attendance at all other types

of museums combined. Roughly 40 percent of the total U.S. museum

attendance is to science museums. The Smithsonian Institution's

National Air and Space Museum has an annual attendance of ten million,

approximately the same as Disney World. The National Museum of Natural
History and the Chicago Museum of Science and Industry both have annual

attendances of about five million. 16/

Little is known about the extent to which exposure to these

informal educational opportunities leads to genuine ^omprehension of

science and technology or stimulates more systematic study in these

areas. Nor have these opportunities been exploited in any systematic

way as adjuncts to the formal education system. Given their evident

appeal, however, it would be worthwhile to explore ways to use these

media more effectively to increase overall public understanding of the

processes of science and technology, and also to extend their scope to

reach broader segments of the American public.
REFERENCES -- SECTION IV

1. National Center for Education Statistics (LACES). The Condition of

Educatign._ 1979. Washington, fl.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

2. =A.

3. National Center for Education Statistics. The Condition of Education.

100. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

5. Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education. Three Thousand

futures: The Next Twenty Years of Higher Education. San Francisco:

Jossey-Bass, 1980.

6. National Research Council Seminar IV -B (Appendix E).

7. Lee Grozdins. "The Field Mobility of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers."

(NRC Paper, Appendix D-1).

8. National Science Foundation. Continuing Education in Science and

inginNring. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1978.

9. J. P. Klus and J. Jones. A Survey of Continuing Education Activities for

Engineers and Scientists, 1979.

10. National Research Council Seminar V-B (Appendix E).

11. A. Schillinger, H. Kaufman, and H. Nason. New Directions in Continuing

Education: Comparative_PArsnectives of Decision Makers and R&D Personnel.

Report prepared for the Industrial Research Institute Research Corporation,

St. Louis, Vb., 1980.

12. Paper submitted by the American Society for Engineering Education

(Appendix D-2).

13. on. cit., Note 11.

14. Informal opportunities for science and technology education were discussed

at NRC Seminar II (Appendix E).

15. J. Miller, R. Suchner, and A. Voelker. Citizenship in an Age of Science.

Pergamon Press, 1980.

16. George W. Tressel, The Role of Museums in Science Education." Scienqe

Zducation, v. 64, #2, 1980.

100 1 7
SECTION V. SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS EDUCATION

AT THE SECONDARY SCHOOL LEVELS

A. INTRODUCTION

The Nation's elementary and secondary educational system has

traditionally been regarded as an essential vehicle for achieving two

broadly defined sets of social goals, consistent with the ideal of

universal education:

o To provide to all citizens knowledge and training consistent with

their individual abilities, and opportunity for the fullest possible

individual growth and development to allow them to function effectively in

a variety of pursuits; and

o To translate, into practice, Thomas Jefferson's familiar dictum

that an enlightened citizenry is the only safe repository of the ultimate

processes of society.

The system that is called upon to fulfill these tasks is highly

pluralistic and politically diffuse. It consists of approximately 17,000

individual school districts, each of which has primary control over

standards, curricula, and budget allocations for faculty salary,

facilities, and equipment.

11 A detailed discussion of the information base used for this section

appears in Appendix A-4.
During Fiscal Year 1981, State and local governments will expend

nearly $100 billion for elementary and secondary education, compared with a

proposed Federal Government budget authority of $9.11 billion for

elementary, secondary, and vocational education. Yet, changing demographic

and funding patterns are placing considerable stress on the system.

Secondary school enrollments, which peaked in 1971, have been declining and

are expected to continue to do so at least until 1990. This has led to

retrenchments which have been most severe in those regions of the country

that are also experiencing population losses due to geographical shifts.

The public school system--particularly its secondary education

component--is experiencing these pressures at a time when it is being

called upon to translate the broad goals noted above into contemporary

terms for science and mathematics by carrying out the following tasks:

o Generate a sufficiently large pool of people, adequately educated

in science and mathematics, from which may be drawn: (a) the relatively

few talented and committed students who will go on to become professional

scientists and engineers; (b) future nonscience professionals such as

lawyers, journalists, and managers who will require considerable levels of

sophistication in scientific and technological matters; and (c) future

technicians and members of the skilled work force who will pursue their

occupations in an increasingly technological economy.

o Provide all students with sufficient access to education in science

and mathematics to allow them to pursue these different career options.

13:)

102
o Equip all students with a sufficient understanding of the concepts

and processes of science and technology and the relationships among

science, technology, and society so that they can function as informed

citizens in our democracy.

The materials presented in the subsequent parts of this section lead

to the conclusion that the secondary school system is currently not

carrying out these tasks adequately. Other industrialized countries,

including Great Britain, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Japan,

and the Soviet Union, attach considerable importance to science and

mathematics education and are striving to attain a high level of technical

competency in the general population (Appendix B). However, in the United

States:

o There is a large discrepancy in the amount of science and

mathematics training and skill acquired by those who are interested in

science and engineering careers and those who are not. While there has

always been such a discrepancy, the evidence indicates that in recent years

it has been widening. The relatively few students who have a strong

interest in the possibility of science or engineering careers are studying

and learning as much science and mathematics as they ever did. However,

the larger body of students are ending their study of these subjects at an

increasingly early stage and are performing less and less well on

achievement measures (Section V-B).

o This discrepancy is being reinforced by a general lowering of

standards and expectations. Requirements in science and mathematics for
high school graduation are low. Some colleges and universities are

lowering standards of admission and retention in an effort to compete for a

diminishing supply of students, and the amount of remedial work being

offered by inntitutions of higher education has been increasing. The focus

of the school curriculum on basic skills has led to an excessive narrowing

of curricula. Science is not defined as a "basic" and in mathematics it

means mechanistic computational skill (Section V-C).

o The key instructional resources -- curricula and teachers- -are

presently inadequate. There is a mismatch between the content of the

curriculum and the needs and interests of the large numbers of students who

do not plan to become professional scientists and engineers (Sections V-D

and E).

o A shortage of mathematics and physical science teachers and the

erosion of teacher support systems weaken the capacity of the system to

provide quality instruction to all students (Section V-D).

The remainder of this section discusses evidence for these 'findings

under four headings: Secondary School Student Participation and

Achievement; Coursework Requirements and Standards; The Condition of

Teachers of Science and Mathematics; and Secondary School Science and

Mathematics Curricula and Programs.

104

if
B. SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENT PARTICIPATION AND ACHIEVEMENT

IN SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS

This section reviews the evidence regarding secondary school student

attainments as measured by achievement test scores and participation as

reflected by enrollments in science and mathematics courses. The main

conclusion that follows from the available evidence is that there is a wide

divergence in the amount of science and mathematics training acquired by

those who are interested in science and engineering careers and those who

are not. While some students are getting more and more advanced

experiences in secondary school science and mathematics and performing well

on achievement measures, there is a large body of students who stop their

study of these subjects at a relatively early stage and perform less well

on those measures. Moreover, in recent years the divergence is widening.

Achievement.

The decline in achievement test scores has been the subject of

considerable discussion and debate. Harnischfeger and Wiley, reviewing

data on the commonly used tests, conclude that since the mid-sixties,

achievement test scores have been declining in all tested areas for grades

5 through 12, with the most dramatic drops occurring in recent years and

being most evident for higher grades. These investigators assert that the

changes are not artifacts (e.g., do not arise from differences from year to

year in test content or scale) and that they do represent a national

phenomenon.

1/

105
Jones confirms the general picture of modest decline in science and

mathematics achievement for the Nation's youth from the mid-1960s to the

late 1970s.

2/ He notes that for national samples from the National

Assessment of Educational Progress, exceptions to the mean performance

decline occur in mathematics for 9-year-olds, where performance was stable,

and in biology, ages 9 and 13, where mean performance increased between

1973 and 1977. Thus, the science declines were in physical science for 9-,

13-, and 17-year-olds, and in biology for 17-year-olds.

When the 1978 National Assessment of Educational Progress results for

mathematics are compared with the 1973 results, overall performance of

9-year-olds and 13-year-olds declined slightly while there was an

appreciable decline for 17-year-olds. 3/ A review of performance on

specific test items revealed that students at all levels can add, subtract,

and multiply whole numbers about as well as they always have, but there is

a sharp decline in their ability to deal with any item that requires

understanding and interpretation beyond the rudimentary arithmetic

skills.

4/

White males generally performed better than females or minorities on

the national assessments of science and mathematics. There is evidence

that women are improving on these measures but still lag behind men.

Moreover, various measures of socioeconomic status are highly related to

performance. For example, 9- and 13-year-old Blacks living in advantaged

urban areas achieve near or above the overall performance of their

contemporaries nationwide

106

'!.;
While this general decline in science and mathematics has been heavily

documented, there is also evidence that it is taking place primarily among

those who are not planning careers in science and engineering. In fact,

there is little average change in achievement for the high school students

who elected to take Advanced Placement Tests in science or mathematics.

6/

These students almost always intend to major in science or engineering

fields. Analysis of SAT scores reveals a similar picture; those who are

the best seem to be learning about as much as they ever did, while the

majority of students learn less and less.

In summary, there has been a decline in average science and

mathematics achievement for the Nation's youth over the last 15 years.

Performance remained stable for the best students. In science, the

declines have been more pronounced in physical science than in biology. In

mathematics, the declines have been more pronounced on exercises involving

application of concepts and problem-solving than on those involving simple

computation with whole numbers. White males generally performed better

than females and minorities.

In attempting to explain the declines, the Advisory Panel on the

Scholastic Aptitude Test Score Decline estimated that between two-thirds

and three-fourths of the SAT declines between 1963 and 1970 can be

accounted for by compositional changes in the mix of the SAT-taking group.

However, the panel concluded that this factor played an insignificant role

in the decline from 1970 onward. It suggested a number of other factors

that might be responsible for the decline, including a diminished

seriousness of purpose in the learning process, grade inflation, and
generally lowered standards, and a diminution of learning motivation among

students. 7/ Harnischfeger and Wiley argue8/ that, ,a pricjj, one of the

strongest contributors to test-specific pupil achievement ought to be the

curriculum exposure. A discussion of changing enrollment patterns for

science and mathematics courses follows.

artici4tiort

Welch's examination of available data for four time periods shows that

about 48 percent of grade 9-12 students were enrolled in at least one

science class in 1976-77. This is considerably below the peak of over 59

percent in 1960-61, but is close to the figures for 1972-73. 9/

Using some of the same data sources, Terleckyj considered both science

and mathematics enrollments in grades 7-12 and added another time period.

He reports that the proportion of these students enrolled in science

courses peaked in 1970-71 at over A9 percent, and declined to 67 percent in

1972-73.

10/ The figures of Welch and Terleckyj are consistent when

adjustments are made for grades 7 and 8 and, taken together, lead to the

finding that the decline in the proportion of students enrolled in science

(that shows up first in 1972-73 and persists to 1976-77) was greater for

senior high school students than for junior high school students.

This finding is corroborated by Harms, who considered the distribution

of total secondary school students' exposure to science from 1977 data.

11/

In grades 7-12 there were approximately 17 million students enrolled in

science classes in 1977. Of these science enrollments, over 80 percent

were in grades 7 through 10. Nearly all those enrollments were in courses

108 1..1.;.;
which attract general student populations. About one-half of the student

reflected by these enrollments was spent in the life sciences, about

one-fourth in the physical sciences, and about one-fourth in the earth

sciences. After grade 10, the situation changed dramatically. Enrollments

in chemistry and physics, the two engineering preparatory courses,

accounted for only 6.9 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, of total

secondary science enrollments. 12/

The proportionate decline in secondary school mathematics enrollments

is similar to that for science. Looking more closely at enrollments in

specific types of mathematics courses between 1972-73 and 1976-77, Fey

reports that some students are getting more and more advanced mathematical

experiences ir. high school while a large body are electing to stop their

high school mathematics preparation after 10th grade geometry.

Students enrolled in chemistry, physics, and advanced mathematics are

largely college bound, although not necessarily for degrees in science or

engineering. Of the students who take no more science or mathematics

after grade 10, some go on to college ...ut few can pursue careers in science

and engineering since they do not have the prerequisite normally required

by colleges for such study. This conclusion is supported by the data from

Project Talent showing that once a student drops out of a science and

mathematics track at any level, he or she is unlikely to reenter.

13/

About one-third of the three million high school seniors of 1979

participated in the College Entrance Examination Board's Admissions Testing

Program, which includes the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT). These latter
students generally reported themselves to be in the top part of their class

with 70 percent in the highest two-fifths. On the average, SAT-takers

reported having taken 3.44 years of mathematics and 3.16 years of science

(biological and physical) in grades 9 through 12 and this represents a

slight increase from 1973 levels. 14/

From this we can infer that about

one-sixth of high school graduates have taken junior and senior level

courses in science and mathematics. From the enrollment patterns cited

earlier, we can conclude that one-half of all high school graduates take no

mathematics or science beyond the 10th grade and only one-half of the

students entering college have had any significant exposure to physical

science or advanced mathematics beyond the 10th grade.

Conclusions

When combined, the course enrollment patterns and achievement data

discussed earlier indicate relatively few students who have strong interest

in the possibility of science or engineering careers are learning as much

science and mathematics as they ever did--perhaps even more. However, many

more students are ending their study of these subjects at increasingly.

early stages and are scoring less and less well on achievement measures.

There has always, of course, been a large discrepancy in the amount of

science and mathematics training acquired by those who are interested in

science and engineering careers and those who are not, but the data show

that in recent years that division has been widening.

110
C. COURSE WORK REQUIREMENTS AND STANDARDS

About three-fourths of young people today are earning high school

diplomas and this proportion has remained relatively constant over the past

decade. In contrast, in the early 1930s, only about one-third of pupils

completed the 12th grade, and in the early 1950s, slightly more than

one-half. Increasing proportions of minority (Black and Hispanic) students

graduate from high school but those proportions still lag behind the rate

for White students. Increased graduation rates are accompanied by the

phenomenon of fewer students being held back in school, although there are

significant differences in progression through school related to family

income, education level of parents, and racial/ethnic characteristics.

Progression rates for Black and Hispanic children are below that for the

total population.

15/

Since about 1970, a trend to reduce coursework requirements for high

school graduation has been noted. 16/ School districts are likely to

require more courses in social studies than in mathematics or science for

high school graduation. Three-fourths of school districts required more

than one year of social studies in grades 9 through 12 for high school

graduation, compared to one-third that stipulated more than one year in

mathematics or science.

17/

As fewer students are held back and requirements are reduced, there is

mounting public concern that some children are being passed through the

system without acquiring the expected skills. By a sizeable majority,

public opinion favors the requirement of passing an examination as a
condition for grade promotion. In response, 36 states have introduced

minimum competency testing as a requirement, and 17 of those states plan to

use competency testing as a basis for trIgh school graduation. It is also

interesting to note that while concerned about progress through school

being related to achievement, public opinion rejects the notion of

retaining a child in a grade he or she has failed and favor (81 percent)

special remedial classes over repeating the grade. 18/

The concern about declining achievement and assuring minimal

competency has led to a focusing of the school curriculum on basic skills.

While this focus is primarily at the lower grades, there is evidence that

teachers and committees purchasing textbooks are so sensitized to reading

difficulties that they are acquiring textbooks in the content fields taught

in the higher grades that have a simplified vocabulary and sentence

structure. In mathematics, the situation is similar. Schools are

demanding textbooks that concentrate on drill and computation at the

expense of common applications even in the higher grades. It is not clear

that such practices are warranted. Tests show that children have mastered

the basic techniques of reading, but have trouble with comprehension and

interpretation. Similarly, children can do simple whole number

computations, but have trouble solving common problems.

19/ This concern is

also expressed by many organizations associated with education.

20/ As the

National Congress of Parents and Teachers noted:

"Though emphasis on acquiring basic skills is at the

heart of the educational process, there is a distinct

possibility of basics becoming the curriculum rather than

just rert of the curriculum. Another problem, with an

overemphasis on basics, is a tendency to teach children

only those things for which they will be tested, a

tendency that leads to mediocrity."

112
The focus on basics is having an impact on science teaching,

particularly in the elementary grades. This is because science is not

viewed as "basic" by the general population or educators. As a result,

what little attention science had been given in the elementary grades is

diminishing. 21/

The minimal competency movement and the associated focus of school

instruction on basic reading and arithmetic skills clearly arises from a

broad national concern about the quality of education. While there is a

need to assure that all students achieve minimum proficiency in these

areas, there is also a need for a common understanding that minimal

competency should not displace attention to the development of their

ability to deal with more varied and complex materials and problems in the

content subjects.

Another related reason for relatively low participation and decliring

achievement levels in science and mathematics- -even among the

college - bound - -may well be the reduction of standards for admission and

retention by some colleges and universities in response to increased

competition for students. The final report of the Carnegie Council on

Policy Studies in Higher Education concluded that the diminution of college

entrance and retention requirements has had adverse effects on academic

standards at the high school level. As a result of this conclusion, the

Council recommends that each college and university should revert to the

admission and retention standards of 1960.221 A recent study by the

Conference Board of the mathematical sciences shows that enrollments in

courses below calculus in four -year colleges and universities increased by
10 percent between 1970 and 1975, while the number of first-time students

in these institutions increased only 2.7 percent. In two-year colleges,

high school-level mathematics courses accounted for 36 percent of all

mathematics enrollments in these institutions in 1975, compared with 26

percent in 1966 and 29 percent in 1970.23/

Even secondary school students enrolled in science courses appear to

have some doubts about the value of the experience. In 1977 the National

Assessment of Educational Progress surveyed attitudes of 9-, 13-, and

17-year-olds about their science courses. Three-fourths of the students

felt that their science courses were useful. However, slightly more than

half that number believed the things they learned in science classes would

be more useful in the future than to their everyday life, and two-thirds of

the 13-year-clds either did not plan to take more science or were uncertain

about whether to do so. More than half of the students replied that their

science courses were too difficult; 21 percent of the 13-year-olds and 31

percent of the 17-year-olds regarded their science courses as boring. Yet,

according to the survey, three-quarters of the 13- and 17-year-olds

surveyed felt that science would eventually be important, even though many

found their courses difficult or boring to them. Two-thirds felt that

science ought to be required even though many planned to take no further

science courses. These data suggest that noncareer-bound and

noncollege-bound students maght be motivated to take additional science and

mathematics and might attain higher levels.

24/

Finally, avoidance of upper level science.end mathematics by a large

majority of secondary school students could be due in part to a lack of

15
realistic career information for students, teachers, guidance personnel,

and parents. Students have few resources on which to base a judgment about

what types of work activities are associated with various science and

mathematics coursework, or about which of them hold the best promise for

career entry and future advancement. A3 a result, many important decisions

about choice of courses are made on the basis of hearsay and intuition.

While we were unable to uncover a systematic documentation of this matter,

concern about school counseling has been persistent and widely articulated.

These tentative conclusions relating declining achievements to a

relaxation of standards and a diminution of student motivation for learning

were buttressed by tha identification, by the panel, of sixty high schools

throughout the country whose college-bound seniors had stable SAT test

scores from 1963 to 1970 and some tendency for scores to rise from 1973 to

1976. These schools placed greater emphasis on traditional academic

programs than a group of similar schools with declining test scores.

25/

D. THE CONDITION OF TEACHERS OF SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS

Recent studies confirm the conclusion that classroom teachers play a

pivotal role in the education of students.

26/ While teachers do not bear

total responsibility, they do have a great deal of freedom and discretion

in determining what the content of their courses will be. In addition, it

has been noted that science and mathematics teachers play an important role

in motivating students in relation to their achievement levels in the

courses they teach and in their decisions about whether to take more
advanced courses in science and mathematics. 27/ Given the central

importance of teachers, two factors are cause for concern.

First, there is presently a significant number of unfilled teacher

positions in mathematics and physical science at the secondary school

level. In response to perceptions that there are few openings for new

teachers, the number of people seeking entry to teachers colleges' and

universities' educational preparation programs has decreased markedly. A

national survey found that at the end of the 1977-78 school year, almost 10

percent of the mathematics teaching positions in the secondary schools of

the United States were vacant.

28/ The 200 secondary school mathematics

supervisors who responded to this survey consider this to be a moderate

demand for teachers. Furthermore, their five-year projections do not

expect this situation to change. Separate surveys have confirmed shortages

of mathematics teachers in Indiana 29/ and Missouri. 30/ There is a similar,

but apparently smaller, number of unfilled positions for competent new

physical science teachers as well.31/ In addition, some observers believe

that the quality of new mathematics and science teachers has declined.32 /

Unfilled teacher positions in mathematics and physical science

evidently result both from a lessening in the attractiveness of science and

mathematics teaching careers and from opportunities for more desirable

employmont outside of teaching, because the supply of degree-holders with

majors in these fields is high. For example, the National Education

Association reports that the average salary for beginning teachers with a

bachelor's degree in 1978-79 was 73.1 percent of the average beginning

salary offered in 1978 by private industry to bachelor's degree graduates

116 I~ ')
in mathematics-statistics. In 1975-76, this ratio was 79.7 percent.33/ It

is widely known that when positions cannot be filled through new hiring of

qualified instructors, they are oft9n filled by teachers with lower subject

matter qualifications or by the transfer of tenured teachers from other

subject areas. Thus, inevitably many secondary school mathematics and

physical science teachers have insufficient training to teach courses in

these subjects. This conclusion is reinforced by data from a nationwide

survey which indicated that a sizable number of secondary school science

and mathematics teachers feel inadequately qualified to teach one or more

of their courses.

34/

The second factor causing concern is the erosion of support systems

for teachers. Supervision at the secondary level has been reduced as a

result of financial retrenchment or has been shifted to administrative

tasks from instructional support. There are relatively few people

available outside the classroom to provide quality control and assist

teachers with pedagogical problems. 35/ The teachers, however, clearly want

this help. A total of 67 percent of science, mathematics, and social

studies teachers reported needing assistance in obtaining information about

instructional materials36' and over one-half of these teachers said they

needed help from laboratory assistants or paraprofessionals. 37/

The use of the laboratory is widely considered essential for adequate

instruction in science and over 25 percent of school teachers and

administrators consider inadequate facilities as a serious problem for

science. However, there is evidence that teachers may not make frequent

use of them even when available.

38/ It is likely that there is a threshold

117
phenomenon involved. For example, the best equipped laboratory may not be

used if paraprofessionals or aides are not also available, especially

because safety has become an increased concern in the schools. In any

case, very little use is made of out-of-school facilities such as nature

centers. museums, and planetaria. The reasons for this are unambiguous,

but transportation problems and chaperonage appear to be important factors.

Another facet of the erosion of support systems for teachers is a

decline of opportunities for faculty development.39/ There has been a

sizable drop of Federal support of summer and in-service teacher institutes

since the peak funding years of the late 1960s, and this support has not

been replaced by local sources. One specialist who made an extensive

evaluation of the summer institute program concluded that it was generally

successful in making a significant, positive impact on secondary school

science and mathematics education. However, it seems few of the least

qualified teachers have applied for institute participation.40"

In addition to providing continuing educational opportunities to

science and mathematics teachers, summer and in-service institute programs

provided an important incentive to secondary school teachers by allowing

them to associate with their school, college, and university peers and

learn from the experience of others about improved teaching and curriculum

approaches. 1/ The reinstitution of such opportunities for sustained

interaction between secondary school and university science and mathematics

faculty would, in the opinion of the participants at a National Research

Council seminar, help improve coordination between secondary school science

and mathematics and other components of the science and engineering

118

1
education system. It was the consensus of the seminar participants that

the quality of education at all levels would be improved by such

integration. Other effective steps could include continuing educational

opportunities for secondary school teachers in industry; and programs,

including curriculum development, involving college and university faculty

more intimately in the secondary schools. In particular, the seminar

participants suggested there may be reasonable numbers of university

science and engineering faculty who are retired or near retirement who

would be enthusiastic about such involvement. 42/

E. SECONDARY SCHOOL SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS CURRICULA AND PROGRAMS

Federally sponsored curriculum development programs were an important

strategy for improving science and methematies teaching in the post-Sputnik

era. At least initially, the focus of these programs was the motivated,

college-bound student, though not necessarily those intent on careers in

science and engineering. A 1977 survey of textbooks commonly used in

secondary school science and mathematics courses revealed that, except for

biology courses, relatively few schools presently use the products of these

national development programs.

11 3/ However, Welch contends the programs and

materials produced had a marked effect on the quality of non-Federally

supported text development. The availability of good, contemporary course

material has had a generally positive effect on the quality of preparation

of the relatively small numbers of secondary school students who pursue

44/

careers in science and enginering.
Unfortunately, relatively little attention has been paid to curricula

for those who are not intent on such careers. Recent studies of the status

of pre-college science and mathematics education and analysis of the

content of commonly used textbooks and other literature lead to the

conclusion that, at present, the content of science courses in both junior

and senior high schools gives extensive and almost exclusive attention to

preparation for future coursework leading to professional careers in

science. The emphasis is heavily on the pure "structure of the discipline"

form of science. Very little in the content of courses provides

information related to personal or societal problems, about technology and

what engineers do, or to vocational relevance except to those students

interested in professional science careers.

45/

Nine organizations'6" view this situation with concern. The National

Science Teachers Association puts it this way:

...much of the secondary school science curriculum is

mismatched to the interests and needs of the majority of

students in our schools

7/who will not pursue scientific or

technological careers.

This mismatch to needs is paralleled by a mismatch to stated

intent. While broader purposes for science education are often stated,

they are rarely addressed in practice.

There are some notable exceptions to the prevalent

discipline-oriented courses. Envitonmental science courses approach the

study of science by focusing on problems of personal and social concern.

One physics course developed under a Federal curriculum development

grant approaches the discipline by placing it in its social and

historical context. 48/ Another Federally supported curriculum stresses

120
the relationships between technology and science. 49/ Such courses focus

on concepts, processes, and relationships to other fields rather than

trying to teach students to view science from the perspective of an

academic research scientist. There is at least some evidence that

courses such as these do attract students who do not have a strong

interest in science but who are at least academically motivated, 50/ even

though few of these courses are widely used at present in secondary

schools.

51/

Several contributors to this review, 52/ and the participants at a

National Research Council seminar arranged in conjunction with it, 53/

stressed the need for greater flexibility in secondary school science

and mathematics programs to suit the interests and needs of diverse

stuOent populations. This view is shared by many others .54/ One

contributor urged restructuring of the secondary school curriculum to be

undertaken in the light of the opportunity afforded by calculators and

computers.

55/ He argues that these technologies make possible a new

organization of material, new motivations, new applications, alternative

pedagogic strategies, stronger interrelationships between different

fields and different parts of the same field, and better connection of

mathematics and science to the real world. He also points out that

there have been, in recent years, many experiments at specific grade

levels and with particular pieces of subject matter, but argues for a

global analysis of the problem across grade levels and across the total

subject matter of elementary and secondary education.
In addition to stressing the need for substantial curriculum

reform, Gordon also recommends more fundamental structural reform in the

secondary school system as necessary to address the challenges posed by

science and tenhnology. 56/ basing her paper on a 1979 report of the

Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education, she notes that a

_total school environment is not congenial to many students during their

late teens. She therefore recommends the introduction of alternatives,

including work-study and internship programs.

Gordon also stresses the needs of the academically motivated by

recommending the establishment of more academically oriented high

schools and special programs within existing schools. The desirability

of focusing more attention on talented students with special interests

in science and mathematics was also stressed by Lapp 57/ and several

commentators on an early draft of this review. 58/ These commentators

contend this would raise the overall level of understanding of science

and mathematics, preserve the potential pool of scientists and engineers

by avoiding the premature foreclosures of choice, and provide a base of

knowledge so people could much more easily return to science and

engineering pursuits at a later point in their education.

122
REFERENCES -- SECTION V

1. A. Harnischfeger and D. Wiley. The Decline of Achievement Test Scores:

Evidence. Causes and Consecuences. Princeton, N.J.: ERIC Clearinghouse,

1977, p. 1. 2. L. V. Jones. Changes in Achievement Test Scores of Pre-College Students in

Mathematics and Science: A. Review of the Evidence. University of North

Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1980, p. 32.

3. National Assessment of Educational Progress. Epthematioal Knowledge smi =la, 1979.

4. T. P. Carpenter, M. K. Corbett, Henry Kepner, and M. M. Lindquist.

National Assessment: A Perspective of Studgnte_Mastery of Basic

Mathematics Skills (to be published).

5. National Assessment of Educational Progress. .4pience Achievement in the

Sch4411, 1977, p. 32.

6. off., Note 2, p. 32.

7. College Entrance Examination Board. On Further Examination DI the

Advisory Panel on the Scholastic Aotitude Testy. New York: 1977,

pp. 44-48.

8. A. Harnischfeger and D. Wiley. Achievement Test Scores Drop. So What?

Educational Research, v. 7, (1977), pp. 5-12, p. 8.

9. W. W. Welch. "Twenty Years of Science Curriculum Development: A Look

Back" in D. Berliner (ed), liciatuAjilagarshsgadusatiga, v. 2.

Washington, D.C.: American Educational Research Association, 1979.

10. N. E. Terleckyj. The State of Science and_Researchl__Somt_New_Indiaators.

p. 189. Boulder: Westview Press, 1977.

11. N. Harms. Exposure to Science Coursework._1977 (to be published).

12. I. R. Weiss. Peport of the 1977 Survey of Science. Mathematics and Social

Studies Education. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office,

1978, p. 60 (see Appendix A-4).

13. K. J. Gilmartin, D. H. McLaughlin, L. L. Wise, and R. J. Rossi.

Development of Scientific Careers: The High School Years. Palo Alto:

American Institutes for Research, 1976.

14. College Entrance Examination Board. The ATP National. Report, 1979, pp. 7

and 14.

15. National Center for Education Statistics. The Condition of Education_:

1979 Edition, p. 46.

16. on. cit., Note 2, p. 3; Note 7, p. 26; Note 8, p. 8.

123 -1 G
17. OD. fit., Note 12, p. 24.

18. oo. cit., Note 15, p. 47.

19. R. W. Tyler. "Educational Improvements Best Served by Curriculum

Development" in Schaffarzick and Sykes (eds), Value Conflicts and

Curriculum Issues. Berkeley: McCutcheon Publishing Corporation, 1979.

20. Yhat are the Needs in Precollege Science. Mathematics, and Social Science

Education? Views from the Field. Washington, D.C.: National Science

Foundation, 1980, pp. 252-54 (see Appendix A-4).

21. ibid.

22. Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education. Three Thousand

EaturzttIliciextivintlaraosSiiigherAdmaation. San Francisco:

Jossey -Bass, 1980.

23. Conference Board of the Mathematical Sciences. Uudergraduate Mathematical,

Sciences in Universitieujour-vear Caleges. and Two -near Colleges.

1975-76, p. 29 and 70.

24. National Assessment of Educational Progress. Attitudes Toward Scienct,

1979.

25. Margaret S. Gordon. "Lost Talent: The Problem of Secondary Schools."

(NRC Paper, Appendix D-1).

26. OD. cit., Note 20.

27. Douglas M. Lapp. "The Motivation of Students and Teachers of Secondary

Science and Mathematics." (NRC Paper, Appendix D-1).

28. National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. Press Release, October 19,

1978, Reston, Virginia.

29. W. R. Schooley. "Reader Reflections." The Mathematics Teacher, v. 72

(1979), p. 404.

30. C. A. Paul. "Bald Eagles, Sperm Whales, and Mathematics Teachers." ..11.el Mathematics Teacner,_K,72, (1979), pp. 424-427.

31. B. G. Aldridge. "Announcement of the results of National Science Teachers

Association survey (1980)." Washington, D.C.

32. W. T. Weaver. "ln Search of Quality: The Need for Talent in Teaching."

Phi Delta Kaman, v. 61, (1979), pp. 29-32. See also Gordon, Note 25;

Lapp, Note 27, and Paper submitted by the Executive Officer of the American

Association for the Advancement of Science (Appendix D-2).

33. W. S. Graybeal. "Reader Reflections." The Mathe ties Teacher. v. 72

(1979), p. 643.

34. on. cit., Note 12, p. 144.

.1 CI

124
35. 142.1-111., Note 20.

36. op. at., Note 12, p. 147.

37. OD. cit., Note 12, p. 135.

38. 9o. cit., Note 12, p. 159.

39. Robert Stake and Jack Easley. Case Studies in Science Education, 1978,

p. 19 (see Appendix A-4).

40. Stanloy Helgeson. imoact of the National Science Foundation Summer.

IgAlitute_frstgua. The Ohio State University: 1974, p. 43 (see

Appendix A-4) .

41. Harvey Brooks. "The Sputnik Syndrome Revisited." (NRC Paper, Appendix

P-1).

42. NBC Seminar I (Appendix E).

43. OD. cit., Note 12, p. 83.

44. pp. cit., Note 9.

45. N. Harms, et al. Aeport of Pro sect Synthesis (to be published).

46. op. cit., Note 20.

47. j1j.d.

48. The Project Physics Course. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc.,

1970.

49. The Man Made World. Engineering Concepts Curriculum Project. New York:

McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1964.

50. Gerald Holton. "On the Educational Philosophy of the Project Physics

Course," Physics Education, 11, #5 (1976), pp. 330-335,

51. on, cit., Note 12.

52. OD. cit., Note 25; Note 27. Also Paper submitted by the National Council

of Mathematics Teachers (Appendix D-2).

53. NRC Seminar III-A (Appendix E).

54. ,op,stt., Note 20.

55. Henry Pollak, Bell Laboratories. (Note contributed with evaluation of an

early draft of this review).

56. op. ait. Note 25.

57. OD. eit., Note 27.

125

t.
58. Paul Hurd, Stanford University, and Harrison Shull, Rensselaer Polytechnic

Institute. (Notes contributed with evaluation of an early draft of this

review.)
VI. APPENDICES
APPENDIX A

TECHNICAL NOTES

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Proiections of 1990 Employment

(Section II-B)

The BLS developed its projections for 1990 employment of scientists

and engineers in a series of steps that linked aggregate economic activity

to output by industry to employment by occupation. The first step started

with assumptions covering the expected conditions of economic growth and

Federal policy goals. In one set of projections, it was assumed that the

Federal budget deficit would decline after 1980, reaching a level near $20

billion in 1990. For an alternative projection, BLS assumed that the

budget would be balanced by 1983 and remain so through 1990. The

unemployment rate was assumed, for all projections, to decline to 4.5

percent in 1990, whereas productivity per worker was assumed to rise

annually at rates near the 2.6 percent level achieved between 1955 and

1968. BLS projected the 1990 labor force using the Series II population

forecasts of the Bureau of the Census.

An econometric model was used with these assumptions to project the

aggregate economy and to distribute the Gross National Product by category

of demand. There are four such major categories: personal consumption

expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports, and

government purchases. Each component of demand was in turn broken into

purchases made from 160 different industries, including, for example, dairy

and poultrI products, coal, and paper products.

129
In the next step, purchases from these 160 industries were introduced

into an input-output model that had been adjusted to reflect projected 1990

production processes. This model is a large matrix (160 by 160) that tells

what goods and services each industry buys from all other industries to

produce its output. For example, the automobile industry purchases inputs

from the steel, plastic, glass, rubber, electronics, and many other

industries. This step generated outputs for each of the W7 Industries.

For the final step linking outputs to employment, a labor demand model

was used to project productivity, hours, and employment at.the level of

each industry. A matrix that distributes employment in each industry by

detailed occupation was then used to estimate total 1990 employment in each

of 380 different job categories. Only science and engineering occupations

are reported here.

For more information, see BLS Bulletin 2030, Employment Pro sections

for the 1980s.

National Center for Education Statistics OWES) Proiections of

Baccalaureate and Master's Degrees in Science and Engineering

(Section II-B)

The NCES estimated future degrees on the basis of its projections of

college and university enrollments. The first step in the projection

process was to calculate the percentage of the population enrolled in

higher education in each of several recent years in each of several age

groups. These percentages were projected into the future for each age

130
group. The statistical method used to estimate future enrollments,

exponential smoothing, places mer7 Lo4ght on recent observations than on

earlier ones.

Bachelor's and master's degrees were projected on the basis of their

past statistical associations, as indicated by regression analysis, with

undergraduate and graduate enrollments, respectively. Awards at these two

levels were distributed among the science and engineering and other fields

on the basis of past trends and statistical relationships.

For more information, see Projections of Education Statistics to.

1988-89 (in preparation).

flational Setence F'Jundation (NALErpleations_of the Sunblv_and

Utilization of Doctoral SaientaLLAndInginimm (Section II-B)

Estimates of the 1990 science and engineering Ph.D. market were

adapted from the publication, imitations of Science and Engineering

kagrate52921YandktiliZattigag19g1 (48F 79-303), which was

prepared in 1978. It was assum4d that, the annual changes in Ph.D. supply

and employment projected for the pericrs 1977-1987 would continue through

1990.

To generate the utilization figures reported in NSF 79-303, NSF used

econometric modeling and trend extrapolation to estimate the number of

science- and engineering-related positions that may be available by field

for doctorates in 1978. NSF projected the two largest categories of

131
science and engineering employment, academia and industrial research and

development, through the use of demand equations that were derived from

regression analysis. These equations related employment to demand

variables such as research and development spending and the number of

science and engineering baccalaureates awarded (an index of teaching loads)

in a year. Other categories of science and engineering employment in

government, nonprofit organizations, and industry (other than research and

development) were projected through extrapolation of past growth trends.

To generate estimates of 1987 supply by field, NSF used a recursive

econometric model that reflects the relation between the Ph.D. labor market

and the number of doctorate graduates. In this model, poor emplolment

opportunities in a given year result in lower graduate school entrance and

completion rates, and hence in fewer graduate; in future years, whereas

better market conditions induce higher rates, and hence more future

graduates. Projected market conditions depend upon the interaction between

demand variables and the number of new graduates in each field.

For more information on NSF prediction methods, see NSF 79-303.

13;..
Information Base on Pre-Pollege Science and Mathematics Education

(Section V)

The information base available for the review of science and

mathematics education in elementary and secondary schools is particularly

extensive, since NSF recently sponsored an assessment of the status of the

Nation's elementary and secondary school education practices in science,

mathematics, and social science. Three complementary approaches were

undertaken - ..survey, case study, and literature review. This aggregate

effort is referred to as the Status Study. The results were published in

six volumes in 1978. A seventh volume comprising the Status Study overview

and summary documents of the three interrelated approaches was also

published as follows.

h. Overview and Summaries

o The Status of Pre-College Science, Mathematics and Social

Studies Educational Practices in U.S. Schools: An Overview and

Summaries of Three Studies.

b. The national survey of teachers, principals, and superintendents

regarding training, materials, and educational practice was contracted to

Iris Weiss of Research Triangle Institute. The survey findings are

reported in one document.

o Report of the 1977 National Survey of Science, Mathematics, and

Social Studies Education.

c. The case studies covered eleven in-depth investigations of ongoing

educational practices. This study was contracted to Robert Stake and Jack

Easley at the University of Illinois, Urbana. The case study findings are

available in a two-volume set.

133
o Volume 1: Case Studies in Science Education. The Case

Reports.

o Volume II: Case Studies in Science Education. Design,

Overview and General Findings.

d. The literature review, contracted to Stanley Helgeson, Ohio State

University, examined published and unpublished documents related to

existing needs statements in science, mathematics, and social studies. The

results of this review are being published in three volumes:

o Volume I: The Status of Pre-college Science, Mathematics and

Social Science Education: 1955-1975. Science Eduoation.

o Volume II: The Status of Pre-College Science, Mathematics and

Social Science Education: 1955-1975. Mathematics Education.

o Volume III: The Status of Pre-College Science, Mathematics and

Social Science Education: 1955-1975. Social Science

Education.

To help make the nearly 2,000 pages of materials in these seven

volumes more accessible and useful for different audiences and for

policymakers, NSF invited nine organizations to analyze the studies

independently and write reports. These nine reports are not only

descriptive, they are also normative. Each organization was asked to

extract from its analysis the major needs in science education from the

point of view of its membership. Thus, collectively, the reports give an

idea of what problems and issues are thought to be most important, what the

system's strengths and weaknesses are believed to be, and what the most

important strategies for improvement right be. Although the formats for

each report differ, they all contain, either explicitly or implicitly, a

set of recommendations for the improvement cf science education.

' ) 134
These nine reports have been published in a single volume (available July

1980) under the title:

o What are the Needs of Precollege Science, Mathematics and

Social Science Education? Views from the Field.

All of this material was available to most of the persons who

contributed to or were involved in this review. This great wealth of

information does not lead immediately and directly to an inevitable set of

conclusions as multiple interpretations are always possible especially when

normative factors are brought to bear. Nevertheless, the content of

Section V of this review represents a reasonable consensus of the views

expressed in the light of the available information.

In addition to these sources, NSF has recently issued the acigaql

Education Databook, which is a compendium of quantitative information

portraying science education in the United States. It contains information

collected from a wide variety of soum.es that are described in an annotated

bibliography.
APPENDIX B

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS IN SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING EDUCATION

There has been some concern about the relative trends in the

production of scientists and engineers in the U.S. as compared with other

highly industrialized countries. This concern centers on the important

question of whether the U.S. faces a reduced ability, relative to other

countries, to generate and incorporate technological change in its

production and utilization of goods and services.

Comparisons between the U.S. and our international competitors suggest

that our eminence in basic research is secure (Section II -D).1' However,

our ability to apply technology to our military and industrial pursuits may

well be hampered by the relatively low level of scientific and mathematical

competence of our nonscientists and, in some respects, by the apparent

cooling of science interest among our students generally. For example:

0 There is anecdotal evidence from U.S. industry that in some highly

technical areas the time required to produce a product has increased as

workers' base level of understanding of science and mathematics has

decreased over the past decade.

2/

o The U.S. military complains that it is more and more difficult to

find officers and noncommissioned officers who are qualified to be trained

to operate the increasingly sophisticated military hardware.3'
The body of this review notes some anxiety about two subject matter

areas: engineering and the computer professions. While the U.S. has

current shortages and future shortfalls in these areas, the Soviet Union,

Germany, and Japan are producing much larger proportions of engineers and

applied scientists than we are.

11/ At the same time, these countries are

educating a substantial Wority of their secondary school population to a

point of considerable scientific and mathematical literacy, in part because

they apparently believe that such literacy is important to their relative

international positions. For example:

o The recent Committee of Inquiry into the Engineering Profession in

Great Britain (the "Finniston Report")5/ laid the decline in the ability of

Britain to compete in international trade squarely on the lack of vigor of

the engineering profession and recommended, among many other things, that

"...all pupils should be strongly encouraged to maintain the study of

mathematics and physics at least until after ,0' level..."6/ (national

competence exams given at the end of secondary schooling).

o As a part of its analysis of engineering in other countries, the

Finniston Report stated that "...the level of education of the average

Japanese worker is markedly higher than that of his U.K. counterpart; this

applies at all levels of the firm, especially on the shop floor... . The

strength of Japanese engineering is in our view partly due to the standard

of education of those involved in the engineering dimension at working

level."7/ Though the difference in the level of worker education between

Japan and the U.S. is not as broad, there is concern that the same genenal

conclusion may be warranted.

) 138
o Regarding Germany, the Finniston Report notes that from secondary

school "A student specialising in classics or modern languages...can cope

with an engineering degree course because he will have kept up his

mathematics and science throughout his period at school. "8" In other

words, even a student who majors in modern languages in secondary school

learns enough science and mathematics to be able to attend engineering

school and compete with others who have majored in science.

o In the Soviet Union, there are national elementary and secondary

curricula in science and mathematics which, in content and scope, surpass

that of any other country. 9/

The import of the last three points is that in Japan, Germany, and the

U,S.S.R., national policy promotes the comprehensive science and

mathematics education of far greater numbers of people than are expected to

engage in scientific and engineering pursuits. In the Soviet Union and

Japan, especially, managerial positions in both government and industry are

heavily populated by people with engineering degrees. 10/

Over the past 15 years or so, while British training of engineers fell

behind so drastically that a comprehensive inquiry was commissioned by the

government,

11/ while Germany and Japan continued to stress science and

mathematics for all their secondary student.,, and while U.S. secondary

students not intending to major in science or engineering were choosing to

take fewer science and mathematics courses, those countries' share of world

trade in manufactured items (excluding food and fuel) changed as

follows:

12/

$

139
Engineering Graduates

As A Proportion of

Share of World Trade Relevant Age Group na 1373 (1477-761

United Kingdom 15% 9%

W. Germany 20% 21%

Japan 8% 15%

United States 21% 16%

1.7%

2.3%

4.2%

1.6%

Between the same years (1963-1977) productivity increased in the

manufacturing industries of the United Kingdom, West Germany, Japan, and

the U. S. (using 1963 as the base year) by 51 percent, 114 percent, 197

percent, and 39 percent, respectively.

13/

In considering cross-national comparisons of training in sc:ence and

engineering one must be cautious, because educational systems are not

parallel and often are quite dissimilar. For example, the group labeled

"engineers" in one country may include an unknown number of those termed

"technicians" in the U.S. Nevertheless, some of the differences in

outcome are dramatic.

In Japan, for instance, the number of degrees granted to engineers in

recent years has surpassed the number granted in those same years in the

U. S., though its base population is roughly one-half of ours.

14/

In

Japan, 20 percent of all baccalaureate and about 40 percent of all master's

degrees are granted to engineers, 15/ and these figures have been nearly

stable for the past 10 years. 16/ This compares with a figure of about 5

percent at each degree level in the U.S.

17/ Japanese education officials

point out that students view the engineering degree as a "ticket" to

140
business and social success in much the same way as the liberal arts degree

(and now the M.B.A. degree) was viewed in the U.S. two generations ago.

It is reported that only about 50 percent of the engineers produced

each year in Japan enter the engineering profession. The others become

civil servants and managers in industry. Around one-half of the senior

civil service hold degrees in engineering or related subjects, and one-half

of those are at the postgraduate level. In industry, about 50 percent of

all directors have engineering qualifications.18

The large number of Japanese students who enter scientific fields (65

percent of baccalaureate degrees

19/ vs. 30 percent in the U.S.) is made

possible by a secondary educational system which has a heavy emphasis on

science and mathematics. There is a national guideline for lower secondary

education (grades 7-9) which calls for about 25 percent of the classroom

time to be mathematics and science courses, and virtually all students are

thus exposed.20/

In secondary school, nearly all of the college-bound

students (roughly one-third of the total) take three natural science

courses (physics, chemistry, biology, or earth science) and four

mathematics courses (algebra, geometry, calculus, or statistics) during

their three-year high school career.

21/

There has been significant effort in recent years to revise and update

the high school science teaching in Japan, and it is now heavily influenced

by the U.S. Physical Science Study Committee (PSSC) and the Biological

Science Curriculum Study (BSCS) materials, Chemistry has been upgraded by
a committee on chemical education set up by the Chemical Society of

Japan.

22/

Mathematics instruction has a more rapid pace in Japan than in the

U.S., and a much higher proportion of students take the more advanced

courses. Geometry is taught in the 7th, 8th, and 9th grades. Trigonometry

is also studied in the 9th grade. Calculus, probability, and statistics

are offered in high school.

23/

The overall quality of this instruction appears to be high. The

International Project for the Evaluation of Education Achievement ranked

Japanese 13-year-olds highest in mathematical achievement among 12

countries including the U.S. and several European countries. Japanese

students were also the most positive in their liking for mathematics.

24/

In Germany, the general preparation is similar. There is a standard

curriculum for all students through the 10th grade, and the only variation

is in specialized science-oriented schools where each subject is studied

more intensively.

25/

Science begins in the 3rd grade with biology one to two hours a week,

in the 5th grade, chemistry and physics are begun (as laboratory courses).

All three sciences are taught two to three hours a week in that grade, and

geometry is introduced. The study of algebra begins in the 7th grade. As

students progress through the grades, the amount of contact with science

and mathematics increases. 26/
At the end of 10th grade, all students who have an average of about B

or B+ (this v ries a little by state) may continue to upper secondary

schooling--grades 11 to 13. Those whose grades are lower attend vocational

school and begin apprenticeships in a variety of pursuits. The students

who attend upper secondary school (currently about 28 percent of the 10th

grade population, up from only 6 percent ten years ago) declare three major

and five minor interests, one of each of which must be a science (which is

pursued five hours a week as a major and two to three hours as a minor).

Mathematics at the 11th grade level includes algebraic functions and

differential calculus. By the end of the 13th grade, students have studied

integral calculus, statistics and probability, and vector analysis. At

this level, too, those with special interest in science take more intensive

courses.

27/

About 75 percent of the upper secondary graduates go on to

universities, and roughly one-third of those pursue a science, engineering,

or mathematics degree.

28/

Thus, the overall picture in Germany is one of a very high level of

science and mathematics literacy among college graduates as well as a

strong science/mathematics understanding among the general population.

This provides them with the basic tools to continue their education (German

law guarantees that all people are entitled to a free education to as high

a level as they desire) at a later point in their careers, as many choose

to do.

1113 1 '7,

.1.
The situation in the Soviet Union is less clear. The country has

achieved virtually universal education through about the first ten years of

schooling. Most of those students (about 60 percent) go on to complete

General Secondary School 29/ --grades 9 to 10 (or 11)--and are exposed to a

mathematics and science curriculum which, according to one observer,

surpasses that of any other country including the U.S.30/ Algebra and

geometry are taught in the 6th and 7th grades, advanced algebra and

trigonometry are taught in grades 8 to 10, and calculus, which a total of

about 500,000 Americans take during their last year in high school or their

first in college, is a part of the high school curriculum for over

5,000,000 Soviet students. In addition, all youngsters are required to

complete five years of physics, four of chemistry (including a year of

organic chemistry), and up to four of biology depending on whether they

attend specialized (i.e., vocational) or general secondary schools.

31/

While students in specialized secondary schools (about 12 percent of 8th

grade graduates) are exposed to less science except in specialty fields

related to engineering technology, the avowed goal of Soviet educational

policy is to ensure that the future labor force will facilitate the

transformation of the economy to a scientific-technical base and to supply

more technologically oriented people to fill the military ranks.32/

About five times as many (with a population base about 1-1/2 times

ours) Soviet students as American students go on to engineering

training. 33/ In the Soviet Union engineering is considered to be the

standard liberal arts education. Moreover, it has been pointed out that

though training is variable, at the better institutions the first Soviet

degree in engineering represents a content level closer to our master's

144
than to our bachelor's degree. 3/

In other sciences, the Soviet Union

produces fewer chemists and bioloGists than we do, about the same number of

physicists/mathematicians, and a few more environmental scientists.35/

This picture of engineering, mathematics, and science education in the

Soviet Union is not complete; there are some major problems. Secondary

school curriculum changes mandated a decade ago have been implemented

slowly and have not spread throughout the educational system. The

secondary science courses have little laboratory work associated with them

and are generally learned by rote. Rural schools tend to be poor. At the

university level, science and engineering education is very narrow-gauge;

i.e., students specialize sharply at a very early point. The sizable

nonRussian-speaking minorities in the country are at a disadvantage because

the best university instruction in science and engineering is in

Russian.36/

There is little specific data, but informed U.S. opinion is that there

is widespread underemployment of the science and engineering work force in

the Soviet Union. New graduates generally begin at the lowest rungs of the

production ladder and work their way up slowly. Perhaps more important,

fungibility and mobility in the fields of science and engineering are very

low compared with the U.S. A member of the Soviet science and engineering

work force is trained almost for a specific job and usually remains with a

particular institution for a whole career. 37/ This results in a system

tnat, in Lhe opinion of some, is very slow to rise to new specialities and

has a reduced ability to innovate.
Though the problem areas in the education and employment of Soviet

scientists and engineers appear to be many, their potential capacity to

compete internationally should not be underrated. There are many signs

that the inefficiencies are being recognized and the Soviets' general

acceptance of the legitimacy of science and engineering pursuits provides a

context in which quality may well improve very rapidly.

For all of these countries, it is difficult to separate the effects of

government policy, market factors, and social pressures. What is clear is

that in each case there is a strong national commitment to quality science

and mathematics instruction as an essential part of the pre-college

educational process. The result is a work force which, at all levels, has

a relatively high degree of science and mathematics skill, and this has

been a factor in the very rapid expansion of technical industries.
REFERENCES -- APPENDIX B

1. In 1977 (the most recent year available), the U.S. produced 38 percent of

the world's scientific and technical articles. Moreover, U.S. scientific

and technical literature was cited in non-U.S. articles at a rate 15

percent higher than could be expected from the U.S. share of the world

literature. These two indicai:ors have stood at virtually the same level

since at least 1973. See pages 150 and 152 of Science Indicators 1978,

Report of the National Science Board, 1979.

2. As far as could be determined, there is no written substantiation of this

comment, but the point has been reported from several separate

conversations. Because of its "softness," it would not have been included

here except that it links two widely observed phenomena (decrease in U.S.

worker productivity and decrease in students' general levels of

understanding of science and mathematics) in a way which is consistent with

similar concerns in Japan and the Soviet Union.

3. Submissions of both the Department of Defense and the Air Force (Appendix

D-4) emphasize the twin problems of recruiting and retaining technical

personnel and the "close to revolutionary" pace of technological advance

which draws on new disciplines which, according to the Air Force, will

have to be widely represented among USAF military and civilian personnel

very soon." In the "Summary of Briefings" attached to the Air Force

submission, it is pointed out that "All Soviet active duty pilots receive a

highly intensive technological education even though they rarely serve in

other than operational assignments."

4. Engineers far outnumber applied scientists in each of the countries named.

In recent years the number of engineering graduates as a proportion of the

relevant age group has been approximately 6.5 percent for the U.S.S.R., 4.2

percent for Japan, 2.3 percent for Germany, and 1.6 percent for the U.S.

If it is assumed that one-half of all new mathematics and physical science

graduates in the U.S. (1.16 percent of their age cohort) and all new

computer professionals (0.25 percent) enter applied fields, the maximum

total proportion of new engineering and applied science graduates relative

to their age group in this country is 2.43 percent. This is comparable to

the rate for Germany, which hp, 2.3 percent engineers and an estimated 0.25

percent for new applied scientists.

5. Engineering Our Future. Report of the Committee of Inquiry into the

Engineering Profession. Her Majesty's Statement Office, London. January

1980. (This commission was chaired by Sir Montague Finniston and its

report is commonly referred to as the "Finniston Report.")

6. add, p. 5C.

7. p. 209.

8. ibid, p. 219.

147 1 1.7.,
9. From an unpublished paper by I. Wirszup. The description of the scope and

quality of the Soviet secondary science and education has been

substantially corroborated by conversations with Dr. Nicholas DeWitt,

Dr. Murray Feshbach, and by information contained in "A Summary Report on

the Educational Systems of the United States and the Soviet Union:

Comparative Analysis" prepared by SRI International for the National

Science Foundation. March 1980. (Appendix G).

10. Information about Japan is taken from the Finniston Report, op, cit., Note

5, pp. 211-212. Information about the USSR is fr.:a conversation with

Dr. Thane Gustafson, The RAND Corporation.

11. The Finniston Committee was formed in July 1977.

12. Shares of World Trade appear as Table 1.3 on page 11 of the Finnis.on

Report (Note 5). Engineering graduate information is from TabJe 4.1,

p. 83, of the same report.

13. Adapted from Table 1-15, p. 156, of Science Indicators 1978, OD. cit., Note

1. 14. Japanese information from Statistioal_Abstract c.£ Educetion,Sience and

Culture published by the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture, Tokyo,

1979 edition. U.S. information from Earned Decrees Conferred. yearly

series published by the National Center for Educational Statistics,

Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (DHEW), 1980 edition.

16. Adapted from Table 3, pp. 72-75, Japanese Statistical Abstract of

Education, Science and Culture.

17. QD, cit., Note 14.

18. This description is given in the Finniston Report, OD. cit., Note 5,

pp. 211-212.

19. Statistical Abstract of Lducation. Science and Cultyrt, Table 3,

Note 5, Pp. 72-75.

20. From Education in Japan, U.S. Office of Education, 1974, corroborated and

updated by conversation with Mr. Wada, the Education Attache, Embassy of

Japan.

21. ibid,

22. OD, cit., Note 20.

23. lug.

24. ibid.

25. Copies of secondary school lesson plans for mathematics, chemistry, and

physics, supplemented by conversation with Mr. Horst Breckwoldt, Principal

of the German School in Potomac, Maryland, and Ms. Dorit Geurtsen-Bandmann,

Director of Guidance at the same school.

148 1 t,
26. Ibid.

27. mod.

28. oo. cit., Note 25.

29. Nicholas DeWitt, "Summary Findings: The Current Status and Determinants of

Science Education in Soviet Secondary Schools." (NRC Paper, Appendix D-1).

30. OD. cit., Note 9.

31. on,_cit., Note 9, p. 3.

32. ibid, P. 5.

33. This varies a bit depending on which year is used for the comparison.

Table 8, p. 29, of the SRI International report (Note 9) presents figures

from 1960 to 1977.

34. 9D. cit., Note 29. However, SRI International (Note 9) expresses slightly

different opinion regarding the few engineering specialties which have been

directly compared.

35. OD. cit., Note 9, p. 30 (Table 9), and p 33 (Table 12).

:16. Conversation with Dr. Thane Gustafson corroborated by conversation with

Dr. Murray Feshbach.

37. Conversation with Dr. Thane Gustafson, partly corroborated by information

from the Soviet Desk, U.S. Department of State.
APPENDIX C

MINORITIES, WOMEN, AND THE PHYSICALLY HANDICAPPED

IN SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

Equality of opportunity is a keystone of Federal educational policy.

Although the problems facing minorities, women, and the physically

hand capped in science and engineering education are in many respects

different, the common thread that ties them together is that of overcoming

barriers to equality of opportunity.

In each case the Federal Government plays an important role in moving

toward the objective c. equality of opportunity. The role is expressed

through court decisions (e.g., Brown vs. Board of Education), public laws

(e.g., P.L. 94-142, tho education of All Handicapped Children Act), grant

and fellowship programs (such as the Graduate and Professional

Opportunities Program, which particularly supports women and minorities

studying science and engineering), Federally funded public television

programs (e.g., 372-1_Xpatact, a science serie- for 8- to 12-year-olds

emphasizing opportunities for minorities and women in science and

technology), and through a variety of other means as well.

Itatals., of Minorities in Science and Engineering

1. Education and Employment

Although racial minority groups made up over 22 percent of the

U.S. population in 1976, they accounted for onl,' about four percent of all

1

151
scientists and engineers.1' Even that figure does not truly reflect the

situation because the various groups differ from one another in their

participation in science and engineering and one subgroup, the

Asian-Americans, is overrepresented (in terms of its proportion in the

total population) in engineering and all science areas except psychology

and social science.

Table 1 shows that ethnic and racial minority groups, except for

the Asian-Americans, are severely underrepresented in engineering and in

all the sciences. Blacks earn degrees somewhat more often in psychology

and social science and less often in the physical sciences and engineering.

Hispanics tend to lag in all the fields about equally, though, again, there

is some favoring of the less mathematically based pursuits. Thea.. are so

few Native Americans who receive degrees in some fields that the

proportions are very unstable (e.g., three Ph.D.'s in engineering, one in

computer science, 15 M.S. degrees in biological science, etc.), but there

does not appear to be any particular field to which they gravitate.

There is some indication that over the past few years the

proportion of minority students in science and engineering (and in higher

education in general--see the National Report series published by the

Admissions Testing Program of the College Board) has been increasing. In

engineering, for example, Black, Hispanic, and Native American enrollment

was 5.7 percent of the freshman class in 1973 and 8.03 percent in 1977. 2/

The latter figure is still only one-half of the proportion of these groups

in the total U.S. population.

152

s,
TABLE 1. Minority student representation among degrees granted in

Engineering and Science fields.

Proportion (%) of Degrees Awarded 1975-76

Proportion in

U. S. Population

1 Black 11.6

Hispanic 5.3

Native American 0.4

Asian American 1.3

Engineering

1 Computer Science Mathematics

Physical

Science

Biological

Science

BS

2.9

1.8

0.3

2.1

MS

1.3

1.4

0.2

3.0

Ph,D RS

5.8

1.6

0.1

2.2

MS

2.1

0,6

0.3

2.6

Ph.D riS 4.9

1.5

0.3

1.9

1

MS

3.1

1.3

0.2

2.4

Ph.D DS

2.9

1.3

0.3

1.5

MS

2.4

1.0

0.2

2.6

4

Ph.D BS

4.1

1.6

0.3

2.2

MS

3.1

0.8

0.2

1.9

Ph.D.

0.6

0.6

0.1

4.2

0.4

0.4

1.6

0.9

1.3

0.1

2.3

0.9

0.8

0.2

2.5

1.3

0.6

0.1

2.5

7,7: i1.; Total Degrees

Granted (Thousands

___1_1.._

45.6 16.0 2.8 5.6 2.5 0.2 15.9 3.9 0.9 21.2 5.4 3.4 54.2 6.6 3.4

Psycho Social Science

OS MS Ph.D BS HS Ph.D

Black 6.1 5.2 2.4 8.5 5.4 2.6

Hispanic 2.5 2.3 1.5 2.4 1.8 1.1

Native American 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.,

Asian American 1.2 1.1 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.9

Total Degrees 49.8 TT 2.6 1767415.0j 4.2

Granted (Thousands)

/

Source: Adapted from Table V-2I; p. 121 Science Education Data Book, NSF, 1980.

1 ')

1.14" ..0 i
Many economic, social, educational, and psychological reasons have

been advanced to help explain why minority students choose science and

engineering careers less frequently than do White/Anglo students. Whatever

the causes, the minority underrepresentation in science-oriented pursuits

begins early in the educational process.3/ Blacks and Hispanics enter

college at lower overall rates than Whites,

11/ and Hispanics opt for

two-year institutions (where science and engineering training is less

available) at a rate nearly double that for White and Black students.5/

Once started in college, both Black and Hispanic students withdraw

at slightly higher rates than do White students at fonr -year institutions

and at markedly higher rates at two-year institutions. Under all

circumstances, the withdrawals are heavily (73 percent-88 percent) for

nonacademic reasons,

6/ which suggests that economics plays a significant

role.

In terms of persistence toward degrees in science and engineering,

Table 1 shows that except for Asian-Americans, minority groups make up

deweasing proportions of degree recipients as they progress from B.A. to

M.A. to Ph.D. levels.

2. Standardized Test Scores

Results of the Scholastic Aptitude Taus (SATs) indicate large

differences between majority scores and scores for the Black minority.

Data recently released by the Educational Testing Service show that during

the five-year period from 1972-73 to 1976-77, Black students scored 119

1511
points lower than Whites on the verbal section, and 134 points lower than

Whites on the mathematics section. 7/

Similar results are found on a variety of other standardized

tests, including tLe NAEP mathematics and science achievement tests, with

Hispanics often scoring, on the average, roughly mid-way between Blacks and

Whites.

Native Americans, possibly because of their small numbers, are

rarely included as an identified subgroup in educational statistics. Their

opportunity to participate in science and engineering pursuits may be even

more greatly hampered than with the Black and Hispanic minorities because a

great many attend rural schools which have very poor resources. Moreover,

it is difficult to assess the extent of many problems because the Bureau of

Indian Affairs and the Office (now the Department) of Education have used

different criteria to define who is a "Native American" and thus have made

strikingly different estimates of the total number.

Federal action can help to narrow the gap--notably through efforts

to eliminate racial discrimination, through steps taken to reduce the

general disadvantage of minority populations (0.g., poverty, malnutrition),

and through compensatory educational programs (such as Title I and Head

Start). However, college-bound seniors planning to study the sciences

generally hive high SAT scores. In particular, those planning to study

physical science and engineering have higher score on the average than

those planning study in any other field. Since few Blacks and not many

more Hispanics have had the necessary training to score at these high

155
levels, the problem of significantly improving minority representation in

science and engineeering is large and progress is likely to be slow.

Status of Women in Science and Engineering

1. Employment

In 1976 only about nine percent of the science and engineering

work force were women, with the great majority being in science rather than

engineering. 8/

Although women are still clearly underrepresented in these

professions, the situation has improved substantially during the past

decade. A sizable and anwin fraction of the most recently trained

scientists and engineers in the work force are women. Between 1974 and

1976 the number of women scientists and engineers increased at a rate

nearly double that for men (15 percent vs. 8 percent). In 1978, women

received 24 percent of all master's degrees granted in science and

engineering fields and 19 percent of the Ph.D.'s, with the numbers heavily

weighted toward the biological and social sciences. Even in the physical

sciences and engineering, fields in which women are particularly

underrepreseled, the proportion of the bachelor's degrees earned by women

has climbed rapidly since 1970. 9/

Persistence of women in science and engineering employment is

high; education is not "wasted" on women in any sense. Given this fact,

and the relatively low representation of women in the science and

engineering labor force despite the .apid progress that has been made,

156
women still remain the largest pool of talent available for increasing the

size and quality of the science and engineering labor force.

2. Education

At the high school level, the mean number of years of study of

mathematics and the physical sciences for college-bound seniors differs

somewhat by sex, with males taking more of these courses than females. In mathematics the difference is about one-third of a year, while in the

physical sciences it is closer to one-half a year.

10/ The importance of

this difference is difficult to judge without further information.

However, better counseling and career information for girls in the

elementary and secondary schools, as well as greater encouragement

generally to study mathematics and science, would be useful.

One analyst writing on this subject for the current study has

suggested that stronger college-entrance requirements in mathematics and

science for all students would result in better preparation for women in

particular, because of this existing differential in course enrollments.

11/

At the bachelor's level, the figures show a steady i-icrease in the

proportion of women in virtually all science and engineering fields over

the past d 4ade. At the doctoral level, women made up 10.4 percent of the

science and engineering work force in 1977, up from 9.3 percent in 1975 and

from 8.5 percent in 1973.12/ Their representatiGn in the various

disciplines is sigrificantly different than at the achelor's level.
For example, only about 13 percent of all doctorates in the mathematical

sciences go to women--considerably below the 18 percent level for all

science and engineering doctorates.

,Status of the Physically Handigamed in Science and Enzineeriv,

Significant legislation at the national level regarding the physically

handicapped has emerged in the past few years. The Vocational

Rehabilitation Ant of 1973 is intended to do for the handicapped what the

Civil Rights Act did for minorities and Title IX did for women. The

Education of All Handicapped Children Act of 1975 (P.L. 94-142) is designed

to assure that handicapped children have available to them an appropriate

free public education.

The major thrust of these statutes with regard to science education is

to require mainstreaming of many handicapped students--that is, the

accommodation of such students in regular classrooms as much as possible.

This, in turn, requires changes in attitudes, correction of architectural

barriers, better teacher training, and a variety of other changes on the

part of individuals, institutions, professional societies, and agencies of

government.

Approximately one percent of the population is severely physically

handicapped: blind, deaf, or significantly orthopedically limited. While

data are not available regarding the percentage of scientists and engineers

who are severely handicapped, it is implausible to assume that it is

anywhere near one percent of the 2.7 million persons in the science and

158
engineering work force. Whatever the exact figure, a significant number of

handicapped scientists and engineers do exist and can function very

effectively. For example, in recent years over 800 disabled scientists

have become known to the American Association for the Advancement of

Science's (AAAS) Project on the Handicapped in Science.

Publications of theAAAS Project on the Handicapped in Science are

recommended for those interested in a fuller discussion of the situation

facing the handicapped in science education.

159

10.4
REFERENCES -- APPENDIX C

1. National Science Board, 2gionalikagatomall, p. 240, Table 5-23.

Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1979.

2. From data supplied by the Engineers Joint Council/Engineering Manpower

Commission, New York, N.Y.

3. National Assessment of Educational Progress. Mathematical Knowledge

5ILUILL11/91, p. 45.

4. National Council for Educational Statistics. Withdrawal from_Inatitutiona

ct_Hischer Education., p. 31, Table IV-7. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government

Printing Office, 1977.

5. Alit

6. Jlad.

7. Sbropiele_of Higher Education., January 7, 1980, p. 5.

8. on cit., Note 1, p. 234, Table 5-19.

9. on. cit., Note 1, p. 237, Table 5-22.

10. Admissions Testing Program of the College Board. latignalStaLlsga_kiaLd

Seniors, p. 14, Table 6. Princeton, N.J.: 1979.

11. L. S. hornig. "The Missing Scientists: Women in Science and Engineering."

(NRC Paper, Appendix D-1).

12. Scientific Manpower Commission. Professional Women and MinoritieL, p. 55,

Table G-WF-11, and p. 59 Table G41F-17. Washington, D.C.: 1978

(Supplemented 1980).

160

3. 53;)
APPENDIX D

LIST OF CONTRIBUTIONS

Robert A. Liberty (Dean of Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology),

The Future oLDoctorate Education in the Sciences and Engineering.

Examines doctoral education, shortages, retirement rates, and future

needs.

Bill G. Aldridge (Executive Director, National Science Teachers

Association), Letter Concealing Supply/Demand _Pay. and Status of School

Teachers of Science and Mathematics_

Provides graphs for enrollments, grades 7-16, and for teacher

projections, grades 7-12. Discusses shortages of secondary physics and

chemistry teachers and the reasons for them.

American Physical Society (Herman Feshbach, President), The Education of.

YhYsicists.

Details policy recommendations on the education of physicists in the

1980s, noting issues such as women in physics, faculty prospects, manpower

projections, and employment opportunities.

American Society for Engineering Education (Donald E. Marlowe, Executive

Director), Memorandum on Engineering Education.

Analyzes the state of engineering education, noting recent problems in

areas such as secondary education, undergraduate education. Discusses

engineering societies' analysis and makes recommendations.

David W. Breneman (Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution), Graduate

Education in Science and Engineering: Prospects and__Folinv OptiOnI.

Reviews graduate education support options, Updates reports from

National Board on Graduate Education, Smith -Karlesky, and fifteen

university presidents. Discusses options such as expansion of graduate and

postdoctoral education, retraining, and state and/or private sector

support.

Harvey Brooks (Benjamin Peirce Professor of Technology and Public Policy,

Harvard University), The Sputnik_Syndrame Revisited,

Evaluates impacts of post-Sputnik programs designed to improve science

and engineering education, focusing on effects on output of scientists and

engineers, research and graduate education, curricula reforms, and future

issues suggested by past efforts.

The opinions expressed by the authors of these papers are their own

and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Research Council, its

officers or its staff.

161

196
Kenneth E. Clark (University of Rochester), Society Influences on

Educational and Career Decisions of College Undertraduates.

Examines how the system affects the supply of talent in science and

engineering and gives recommendations.

Derek de Soils Price (Avalon Professor of History of Science, Yale

University), Science Indicators of Quantity and Quality for Fine Tuning of

United States Investment in Research in Maior Fields of Science And

Teuhqplogy.

Reviews complex data analysis and provides extensive supporting

materials. Data analysis concerns cross-national flow of scientific

information and the relative contributions of individual nations as

measured by numbers of articles and references to articles in other

documents.

Nicholas DeWitt (Professor of Economics, Indiana University), Summary,

findings: The Current Status and Determinants of Science Education in

Soviet Zegondary Schools.

Highlights structural and societal status of science and mathematics

education in the U.S.S.R. and makes relevant comparisons with U.S. where

possible. Considers goals, curricula paths, transition from secondary to

higher education, relative emphasis on cou-se requirements, and teachers.

Cleveland L. Dennard (President, Atlanta University), Increasing Minority

Representation in Science and Engineering.

Gives a historic view and makes recommendations.

Richard G. Folsom (Formerly President, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute),

Accreditation of Encineering, Programs.

Describes accreditation, discusses issues, and makes suggestions for

possible action.

Margaret S. Gordon (Institute of Industrial Relations, University of

California, Berkeley), Lot Talent: The Problems of the Secondary Schools.

Reviews the need for closer coordination of labor market programs with

the motivation and performance of students. Considers primary problems,

evaluates the need for reform such as work-study programs and magnet

schools, and notes the roles of Federal and State governments.

Lee Grodzins (Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of

Technology), lieEield421AlityorDogloriL4pigatingillatal

I. The Fungibility of Scientists: Intrinsic Correlations Between Fields

II. Components of Supply and Demand.

I. Evaluates the fungibility factors between science and engineering

subfields and the likelihood that practitioners will be able to switch from

one field to another. II. Determines the number of people who will or have

switched fields because of market forces and estimates the field mobility

component of supply and demand.

Kenneth R.R. Gros Louis (Dean, College of Arts and Sciences, Indiana

University), Public Programming in the Sciences.

Compares National Endowment for the Humanities (NIH) and NSF

approaches to public programming/education, focusing on differences between

162 1 ().-. I ., I
passive information transmissions and information projects which involve

the potential learner in planning and execution.

Lindsey R. Harmon (Formerly Director of Research, Commission on Human

Resources), Scientific/Technical Manpower for the 1180's: Field Mobility.

Examines a variety of methods for dealing with manpower shortages and

the extent to which the manpower pool can adapt to changes in supply and

demand. Examines previous shortage periods, relates field mobility to

educational specialization and attitudes, notes trends, and makes

recommendations.

Donald F. Hornig (School of Public Health, Harvard University), Wleottms

Strengthening Science and Engineering Education.

Discusses means of improving science and engineering based on the

author's qualitative experiences. Reviews history of government interest

and examines specific cases of Office of Naval Research, NIH, NSF, and

other agencies.

Lilli S. Hornig (Higher Education Resource Services, Wellesley College),

mtialtingsparaugtzwausLinsztenceandfngin;2ang.

Examines the possibility of increasing the quantity and quality of the

science/engineering workforce by increasing women's participation in

science education, discusses various strategies to recruit and educate more

women scientists and engineers, recommends policies to increase the

effectiveness of science education for women.

Lloyd G. Humphreys (Acting Dean, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences,

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign), Education in Science for the

Slack Minority.

Discusses racial differences in achievement and the extent of the

problem. Suggests solutions will have to be in early childhood.

Lyle V. Jones (Director, L.L. Thurstone Psychometric Laboratory, University

of North Carolina at Chapel Hill), 2111namAiLlichresqf

Pre - College Students in Mathematics and Science: A Review of the Evidence.

Reviews evidence on changes in achievement scores. Compares

mathematics and science scores to other areas, noting possible reasons for

declines and potential policy implications.

Fred Landis (Dean, College of Engineering, Engineering and Applied Science,

University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee), Demand_Proiections for Enaineers

21E9.11/01191.2.

Outlines a methodology for projecting engineering demand through 1987

in selected industrial groups based on economic growth assumptions for the

period 1977-1987.

Douglas M. Lapp (Director, Science Materials Center, Fairfax County,

Virginia Public Schools), Yhellotivation of Student§ and Teachers of.

Secondary Science and Mathematics.

Describes student attitudes, analyzes some of the factors affecting

student and teacher motivation, and compares the situation with secondary

schools in the Soviet Union. Suggests strategies for improving student and

teacher motivation and recommends government policies that might support

such strategies.

163
Quentin W. Lindsey (Science and Public Policy Advisor, Office of the

Governor, State of North Carolina), North garclina School of Science and.

Nlathematics: A Strategy for Improving Education in Science and

Mathematic s.

Reviews objectives and approaches used in planning the North Carolina

high school of excellence for science and mathematics. Discusses survey of

stakeholders, potential problems, the importance of state initiation of

such efforts, means of transferring acquired knowledge to the rest of the

school system, and implications for Federal policy.

Michael S. McPherson (Department of Economics, Williams College), Surplus

or Shortage? Ibg Emerging Market for Ph.D.'s in Science and Engineering.

Reviews existing demand and supply projections for Ph.D. scientists

and engineers during the 1980s, policy implications, and quality concerns.

Roy Radner (Bell Laboratories), National Needs and the Declining Sunnis of,

Young Scientists.

Addresses the causes of the projected decline in the demand for, and

supply of, new science and engineer Ph.D.'s in the research sector of

academia, the adverse affects of such a decline, and gives a brief analysis

of alternative policies and an outline of a Young Scientist program.

Philip C. Ritterbush (Program Director, Institute for Cultural Progress),

Science Educationfor Public Awareness andanyclyementmmeasoajda

felderalRole.

Discusses national purposes, quantity and quality of information

provided outside formal educational institutions, and possible policies for

achieving desired levels of public awareness and involvement.

David 2. Robinson, New Video Technology in Science and _Engineering,

Educatioa.

Describes techniques and what is needed for them to become effective.

Suggests some government initiatives.

Lewis C. Solmon (Executive Officer, Higher Education Research Institute),

aea/inm_with Prospective Shortages in the Science and_Engineeriny Labor,

hArket.

Gives evidence from the data, discusses general problems of intervention strategies, the "Young Investigator" problem for academic institutions, and planned programs for stimulating research output. Presents

two proposals to enhance the working of the market, and states Council for

Economic Development's recommendations for taking conLtraints off industry.

Julian C. Stanley (Study of Mathematically Precocious youth, Johns Hopkins

University), Helping_Youtns_Who Reasomtxtremelv NbIl Mathematically to

Forge Ahead Better Educationallz.

Details the Johns Hopkins Study of Mathematically Precocious Youth

(SMPY) and examinee obstacles to optimizing the abilities of gifted

children. Reviews possible approaches to mitigate problems cited by

identifying and adapting to gifted children.

164
Task Force on Engineering Education (National Academy of Engineering),

Issues Engineerinst Education: A Framework for Analysis.

Summarizes major report by the Task Force and details survey

undertaken to identify major issues in engineering education. Examines

current state of engineering education and details concerns and

recommendations for immediate and long-term action.

Eric A. Walker (President Emeritus Pennsylvania State University),

EnRinfe-RriM-IUNI-EXAUPSSIO2UP111-11Uld-ailialti9.1L

Reviews important engineering education issues, including diversity of

profession, accreditation and licensing, sufficiency of supply, and

graduate education.

Carl R. Wischmeyer (Director, Education Center, Bell Laboratories),

Continuing Education in the Industrial Setting.

Reviews in detail the planning, operation, and success of Bell

Laboratories continuing education program, focusing on appropriate

management roles, participant selection, and curricula.

165 2111)
Agpeasmtas Coqtributed by lenresentatiyes

of Other Nongovernmental Organizations

_11 Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology, Inc. (ABET)

Reviews opinions of David R. Reyes-Guerra, Executive Director, on the

issue of the quality of engineering education. Transmits copy of recent

report on engineering education. Discusses public perception of

engineering, pre-college and college factors affecting students and

quality, graduate programs, and continuing education.

American Academy of Environmental Engineers (AAEE)

Provides draft report, "Position Paper of the American Academy of

Environmental Engineers on the Proper Role of EPA in Water Quality Manpower

DevA.opment." Report notes limitations of sole reliance on market forces.

,e

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Reviews opinions of William D. Carey, Executive Officer, on the four

dimensions of national needs (excellence in research and graduate

education, skill requirements of R&D- intensive industries, profiles of

technology base, and elementary and secondary science/mathematics). Notes

trends, system characteristics, and policy options.

American Association of Engineering Societies (AAES)

Provides data on engineering and technology and on engineering and

technology enrollments. Discusses the training of support personnel for

engineers. Transmits Engineering Manpower Commission. Engineering 4i

Technology Enrollments. Fall 1979: Part I. By School: Part II By

Minorities: Part III. By Curriculum, and Engineering At Technology

_Enrollments: Part I. Engineering, and Part II. Technology.

ft American Association of Physics Teachers (AAPT)

Reviews opinions of Arnold Strassenburg, Executive Officer, focusing

on quality of undergraduate and graduate education, impact of fiscal

pressures, potential shortage areas (notably secondary teachers),

curricula, and continuing education for professionas and the general

public.

American Association of School Administrators (AASA)

Discusses (in letter from William G. Spady, Director, National Center

for the Improvement of Learning) the availability of mathematics and

science courses, teachers, and programs and the attractiveness of such'

programs to women, minorities, and other students.

it These assessments were provided by individual office staff members

of these organizations and do not necessarily reflect the views of the

organizations themselves.

2"

166
* American Association of University Professors (AAUP)

Transmits responses from three AAUP members: Leroy Dubek (discussing

national needs, current science and engineering education problems, and

potential solutions), Jay Scribner (in collaboration with two science

education professors, assessing national needs, important trends, system's

stresses, and policy options), and Dennis Marks (noting need for competent

elementary and secondary teachers and the limits of relevant Federal

policy).

American Federation of Information Processing Societies, Inc. (AFIPS)

Provides degree data on computer professionals.

American Geological institute (AGI)

Transmits opinions of William H. Mathews III, Director of Education,

on science and engineering education in geosciences, emphasizing no serious

quantity/quality problems at undergraduate or graduate level, increasing

numbers of interested students because of energy and environmental

concerns, impact of limited support for research, role of continuing

education, and possible role of secondary schools.

American Institute of Physics (AIP)*

Transmits paper by Lewis Slack on science and engineering education to

preserve national strength, as well as numerous resource materials on

educating and training physicists (including AIP material from report

Physics Manpower 1966 and from Employment Survey 1978).

American Physical Society (APS)

Transmits She Transition in Physics Doctoral Employment 1(10-199O,

Balettin_or_lhe_ameapplahyaiga,Ltopietx, v. 25, Number 2, February 1980

(report on the work done by the Physics Manpower Panel), Bulletin of the

American Physical Society, Jxecutive Summary of The Transition in_Physics

Doctoral _Employment 1960-199Q by M.D. Fiske.

American Political Science Association (APSA)

Transmits "Future National Needs in Political Science Education" by

Sheilah K. Mann, Director, Educational Affairs. t scribes relevance of

political science to science and engineering and briefly documents the

state of the quantity and quality of political scientists.

American Psychological Association (APA)

Transmits memorandum detailing relation of psychology to science

education, levels of psychology manpower (current and future), perceptions

of science and engineering career opportunities, and need for support at

all levels of educational system (especially in equipment, stability of

research funds, teacher training, and modification of Federal policy).

American Vocational Association (AVA)

Transmits draft statement by Howard Lawrence and Anne McNutt,

Nashville State Technical Institute, reviewing need for and existence of

national education policy, current problems and trends in vocational

education, needs of nontraditional students, teacher qualifications, and

criteria for new national policies.

167 2
Association for Computing Machinery

* Review by Alfred Bork, University of California, Irvine, of the need

for science literacy, new learning institutions, and computer science

literacy as a special case. Examines unhealthy state of science and

engineering education, notes potential of computer-aided instruction, and

offers recommendations.

Bell Laboratories

W.O. Baker, Chairman of the Board, transmits articles, addresses and

testimony before the Subcommittee on Science, Research and Technology, U.S.

House of Representatives.

Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL)

Provides explanation and explanatory materials for Gertrude

Goldhaber's proposal to the American Physical Society to improve the

understanding of physics and its role in the U.S. economy and society.

Business-Higher Education Forum

Provides review of 1980 conference on Engineering Manpower Issues.

Includes Scientific and Encingering Manpower. 1979, by Rockwell

International, which examines ongoing surveys, analyzes projections,

discusses manpower patterns and cycles, notes limitations on manpower

planning, and considers policy options.

Council of Scientific Society Presidents (CSSP)

Transmits preliminary report prepared by R.D. Anderson, Chairman,

observing the utility of a review by a high-level interdisciplinary panel

and notes major stresses which should be evaluated (e.g., the knowledge

explosion, demographics, inflationary impacts, and broadened employment

bases). Offers recommendations for Federal action.

Council of Virginia Engineering Deans

Letter to President Carter discusses shortages of doctoral students

and faculty and the impact on quality of education.

Committee for Economic Development (CED)

Frank W. Schiff, Vice President and Chief Economist, provides numerous

materials relevant to education for the disadvantaged and for

hard-to-employ students. Includes some materials on minorities and women

in science and engineering.

Education Commission of the States

Provides information on progress assessments and on attitudes toward

science study.

Engineering College Council

Transmits statement by Donald D. Glower discussing the differences

between engineering and science; the shortages of doctoral students, young

U.S. faculty and equipment in engineering schools; the preparation of

students at the secondary level; and gives policy recommendations. Also

includes a position statement, "An Initiative to Promote and Increase the

United States Productivity by Integration of Interactive Computer Graphics

Equipment into the Curricula of U.S. Engineering Colleges and

I)06.1

168
Universities," presented by the Deans of the Colleges of Engineering of the

Big Ten Universities and Stanford University, August 9, 1978.

Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology (FASEB)

Reviews opinions of Robert W. Krauss, Executive Director, on

educational quality, noting issues such as the need for superior scientists

and engineers, deteriorating secondary curricula, university-level

impediments to superior education, noncompetitive faculty salaries, the

need for continuing education, space/equipment limitations, and the impact

of inflation.

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)

Outlines draft position statement of executive committee on

engineering education, detailing the current crisis, professional awareness

of the crisis, faculty levels and salaries, graduate program quality, and

available financial support. Offers recommendations.

Mathematical Association of America

Provides consensus opinions of Alfred B. Willcox, Executive Director,

and seven consultants, focusing on mathematics issues such as the lack of a

recent study of national goals, manpower shortages in the 1980s, relevant

curricula integrated with other fields, faculty shortages (especially at

secondary level), impact of inflation and new technologies, and need for

continuing education. Provides additional comments by Dorothy L.

Bernstein, President, on the need for a sound mathematical education for

all scientists and engineers and the need for a group to monitor new

applications of mathematics.

National Association of Biology Teachers

Transmits draft statement discussing need for an enlightened

citizenry, trends affecting training and utilization of personnel,

qualities of biology and science education, anticipated stresses on the

educational system, science curriculum development, and private and public

policy.

I

National Association of State Boards of Education

Transmits letter from Wesley Apker, Executive Director, listing

problems of science and engineering education and listing needs implied

from the problems.

National Association of State University and Land Grant Colleges

Transmits report for Association by C.H. Wang, Oregon State

University, on supply and demand of scientists and engineers in

energy-related areas. Describes energy and energy manpower crisis,

identifies energy-related needs in solar, fission, fusion, and synfUels

energy, and offers recommendations to supply needed engineers.

National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM)

Transmits a letter from James Gates, Executive Director, listing major

problems in school mathematics. Encloses the articles: "Combating the

Crisis of Confidence," "An Agenda for a Decade of Action," "The Essentials

of Education," developed by the National Council of Teachers, and a press

release of October 19, 1978, regarding the shortage of mathematics

teachers.

169 2y
National Science Teachers Association

Provides analysis of enrollment trends over the past ten years, based

on NCES statistics. Relates enrollments to financial support, cites 1980

study of secondary schools and faculties, and examines causes and effects

of shortage of engineers.

National Parent-Teachers Association (NPTA)

Transmits letter from Virginia Sparling, President, discussing the

principal national needs of science and engineering education, quality and

quantity of scientific and engineering personnel, important trends, current

Federal policies, stresses in the educational system, institutional

mechanisms, private and public policies, and lists questions for assessing

science education in schools.

Pennsylvania State University.

Letter from B.F. Howell, Jr., discusses problems related to support

for graduate students, and obsolescence of equipment in educational

institutions.

SRI International

A Summary Report onLthe Educational System of the United States and

the Soviet Union: Comparative Analysis, March 1980. SRI International

Strategic Studies Center, Training and Utilization of Scientific and

Engineering Technical Personnel, November 1979.

Describes the history and characteristics of primary, secondary, and

higher education, notes admission procedures and trends in undergraduate

and graduate students, reviews current and expected employment and salary

trends for scientists, engineers, and technicians, and examines mobility

and continuing education issues.

Texas Deans of Engineering

Recognizes the problems of engineering colleges to maintain a high

quality and quantity production of engineering graduates and makes

recommendations.

9g

170
D. Allan Bromley, "U.S. Universities and the Federal Government," and

"Molecular Phenomena in Nuclei," Francis G. Slack lectures (Vanderbilt

University), March 1979.

First lecture addresses relation between universities and the Federal

Government, focusing on research, accountability, and identification and

training of gifted students.

John C. Calhoun, Jr., "A University View on Factors Affecting Engineering

Manpower Supply and Demand in the Drilling aad Producing Sector of the

Petroleum Industry" (1978), and "Analysis of Petroleum Engineers

Engineering Manpower Survey" (1979).

Reviews output of, and demand for, petroleum engineering graduates.

Donald W. Collier (Borg-Warner Corporation)

Letter discusses the need for second career educatiOn and the stresses

the educational system will experience as a result.

Samuel I. Doctors, Curriculum Development for Public Management of

Innovations. The Private Sector Connection.

Assesses the demand for, and availability of, education and training

in the field of science and technology management, discusses the relevance

of private sector management of innovztion and suggests a program for

developing a curriculum for public management of innovations. Lists

current training in public management of innovations.

Kenneth W. Ford (President, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology),

letter and Statement to National Science Board Members, January 10, 1978.

Discusses younger researchers, supply and demand ana alternative

performers of basic research. Makes recommendations.

L.E. Grinter (Dean Emeritus, University of Florida)

Letter discusses doctoral level engineering, quality in engineering

education, and suggests supporting carefully selected students.

Jill E. Heuer, "Soviet Scientific/Technical Manpower: Much More Than a

Simple Numbers Game," Government Exe'utive, April 1980.

Gerald Holton (Harvard University)

Suggests appointing a Kemeny-type commission and interpreting "science

and engineering education" in the broadest way. States the need to go

outside the charged agencies to define the semi-qualitative indicators.

Charles V. Kidd (George Washington University)

Discusses free market vs. planned market, supply-demand relationships,

efforts to deal with specific shortages, Federal fellowships, and other

issues. Provides questions relating to the adequacy of training in science

and engineering in the U.S. and a reading list.

Douglas C. Neckers, On the Quality of Undergraduate Students Choosing

Chemistry as a Profession 1961-1979, 1979.

Surveys the career goals and abilities of chemistry majors from 1961

to 1979, using data from individual schools and from 26 representative

171

21.16
schools. Notes decline in ability (measured by test scores) of chemistry

majors choosing chemistry careers in comparison to those chemisty majors

choosing medical careers.

Gilbert Sanchez (Eastern New Mexico

Discusses ways of defining and

trends such as science education at

age, and hands-on experimentation.

the educational systems in order to

University)

delineating national needs, important

an early stage, counseling at an early

Lists areas that should be stressed in

fulfill national needs.

A. George Schillinger, Harold Kaufman, and Anthony J. Weiner (Polytechnic

Institute of New York), and Howard K. Mason (Industrial Research

Institute/Research Corporation). New Directions in Continuing Education:.

Comparative Perspectives of Decision Makers and RAD Personnel, Draft No. 2,

1980.

Reports on a study for NSF. Describes available continuing education

programs and their origins, notes obstacles to effective continuing

education in industry and academic institutions, reviews government's role

in continuing education, and evaluates important trends affecting

continuing education.

Edward Wenk, Jr. (University of Washington, Seattle, Washington),

Enalwerink in the 89e, based on an address presented October 19, 1979, at

the dedication of the G.W.C. Whiting School of Engineering, The Johns

Hopkins University.

Examines social responsibilities of engineers, noting nature and

trends of technology, impact of technology on society, and implications for

engineers.

Dael Wolfle (University of Washington)

Gives sources and suggests that the supply of scientists and enginee

will depend more on opportunities than on programs directed to supply, that

institutions may need remedial aid, and that the report analyze national

needs.

Gail S. Young (Case Western Reserve University)

Letter discusses potential for imminent shortage of mathematicians

(manuscript attached).

172
Assessaents Prepared by U.S. Government Agencies

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)

Transmits detailed summary of USDA Manpower Assessment Project, which

focuses on current and future supplies of scientists for agriculture, job

opportunities in the field, and adequacy of supply to meet demands.

Department of Defense (DOD), Office of the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense

for Research and Advanced Technology.

Provides draft analysis of DOD manpower needs and problems. Provides

guidance on study of science and engineering education, analyzes military

sector demand, identifies impending obstacles to adequate manpower supplies

(internal and external), and suggests institutional mechanisms for solving

major problems.

Transmits Special Report of the U.S. Air Force Scientific Advisory

Board Ad Hoe Committee on Scientific and Engineering Manpower Shortfalls

Within the Air Force. Reviews relevant educational trends, demand and

supply for Air Force needs, and potential short-term and long=term

alternatives to improve Air Fore ability to attract and retain scientists

and engineers.

Describes preliminary analysis of Army manpower needs, impending

problems in meeting manpower needs (e.g., relevance of education to Army

employment opportunities and internal/external factors restricting Army

hiring and retention of scientists and engineers), and notes institutional

mechanisms for constructive actions.

Department of Energy (DOE)

Discusses the Nation's most likely major energy sources from now to

the year 2000 (based on scenarios in the CONAES and NEP II reports) and

provides a preliminary description of the need for engineers and scientists

(by sub-field) required to design and operate these energy facilities.

Summarizes the engineering and science disciplines in which the anticipated

numbers of graduates (from the B.S. to the Ph.D. level) are likely to be

substantially lower than the combined needs of the energy and other

technologies.

National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA)

Analyzes NASA and NASA-rzdated industry demands for foreseeable future

for scientists and engineers. Notes declining NASA demand but intense

competition for quality graduates among industries.

National Institutes of Health (NIH)

Transmits "Assessment of Future Quantitative and Qualitative Demands

for Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists in Government and Private Sector

Likely to Result from Programs Related to the Mission of the NIH" and

personnel Needs and Training for Biomedical and Behavioral Research, The

1978 Report of the Committee on a Study of National Needs for Biomedical

and Behavioral Research Personnel.
APPENDIX E

LIST OF SEMINARS ARRANGED BY THE NATIONaL RESEARCH COUNCIL

Seminar I.

Chair:

Seminar II.

Chair:

Seminar III.

April 24, 1980: broad Policy Concerns

Harrison Shull, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

April 24, 1980: Public Understanding of Science and Technology

Jack Myers, University of Texas at Austin

April 25-26, 1980: Preparation for Studying Science and

Engineering

Group A: Pre-college Science and Mathematics

Chair: William Bevan, Duke University

Group B: Introductory Undergraduate Science and Engineering

Chair: H. R. Crane, University of Michigan

Seminar IV. April 27-28, 1980: Undergraduate Programs and Their Graduates

Group A: Undergraduate Majors in Science

Chair: Lilli Hornig, Wellesley College

Group B: Undergraduate Majors in Engineering

Chair: James Mulligan, School of Engineering,

University of California, Irvine

Group C: Baccalaureates in Employment and in Graduate Schools

Chair: Robert Bromberg, Vice President of Research and Engineering,

TRW Systems

Stalinar V. April 29-30, 1980: Graduate Programs and Their Graduates

Group A: Graduate Programs

Chair: Robert Hill, Duke University

Chair:

Seminar VI.

Chair:

Group B: Masters and Ph.D.'s in Employment

Albert Clogston, Bell Laboratories

April 29, 1980: Utilization and Continuing Professional Education

Margaret Gordon, University of California, Berkeley

* The National Research Council has provided the National Science

Foundation with notes on the discussions at each seminar for use in preparing

the present review. These notes are not to be construed as NRC committee

reports.

175

209
APPENDIX F

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18fi 2 !:)
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19124
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The National Science Foundation and the Department of Education are

grateful to the many individuals and organizations that contributed

material to this review. All such contributors are listed in Appendix D.

Officials from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Departments of Defense

and Energy, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the

National Institutes of Health provided useful technical comments on various

draft versions of this review.

Thanks are due in particular to the following persons who, as

individuals, also provided critical comments on these drafts

(organizational affiliations are given for reference only):

Benjamin H. Alexander

Chicago State University

Ismael Almodovar

University of Puerto Rico

Richard C. Atkinson

University of California, San Diego

D. Kenneth Baker

Harvey Mudd College

William O. Baker

Bell Laboratories

Lida K. Barrett

University of Tennessee

M.W. Blasgen

International Business Machines, Inc.

Marjorie Bolen

Josenh E. Brown High School

Lewis M. Branscomb

International Business Machines, Inc.

Yale Braunstein

Brandeis University

Taft Broome

Howard University

George Bugliarello

Polytechnic Institute of New York

Anne Campbell

Nebraska State Department of Education

193 29.
John Bissell Carroll

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Jewel Plummer Cobb

Rutgers-The State University of New Jersey

Eugene H. Cote- Robles

University of California at Santa Cruz

John B. Davis, Jr.

Macalester College

SaviDe R. Davis

The Christian Science Monitor

Herbert D. Doan

Doan Resources Corporation

Waugh Fields

University of the District of Columbia

Herbert I. Fusfeld

New York University

Debra Gerald

Department of Education

Donald D. Glower

The Ohio State University

Harold Goldstein

Bethesda, Maryland

Edwin L. Goldwasser

University of Illinois

Marshall Gordon

Murray State University

Clifford Grobstein

University of California/San Diego

Norman Beckerman

Rice University

Susan Sadden

University of Texas

N. Bruce Hannay

Bell Laboratories

W. Lee Hansen

University of Wisconsin at Madison

194 226
Christopher T. Hill

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Kenneth C. Hoffman

MATHTECH, Inc.

W. N. Hubbard, Jr.

The Upjohn Company

Gary C. Hufbauer

U.S. Department of Treasury

Paul Hurd

Stanford University

Melvin Kranzberg

Georgia Institute of Technology

William H. Kruskal

University of Chicago

Saunders Mac Lane

University of Chicago

Carleton E. McMullin

Little Pack, Arkansas

Donald E. Marlowe

American Society for Engineering Education

Walter E. Massey

Argonne National Laboratory

Arnold J. Meltsner

University of California

Jaime Oaxaca

Northrop Corporation

George Pimentel

University of California, Berkeley

Henry Pollack

Bell Laboratories

Howard Kaiffa

Harvard University

Lindon E. Saline

General Electric Company

Edwin E. Salpeter

Cornell UniVersity

195

2T7
Gilbert Sanchez

Eastern New Mexico University

Frederic M. Scherer

Northwestern University

Harrison Shull

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Ralph Staley

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

J.E. Stevenot

Procter & Gamble

Patrick Suppes

Stanford University

Gordon Swanson

University of Minnesota

Lois E. Torrence

University of Connecticut

John R. Whinnery

University of California

F. Karl Willenbrock

Southern Methodist University

Seymour L. Wolfbein

Temple University

Dael Wolfle

University of Washington

196

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