# Poss
i 

# ble
I 

# spending in two ways: ®increase purchase prices of ballasts ® cr ase energy expenditures . d Direct 

# detail manufacturer impacts analysis Indirect employment impacts eliminated in the U

. S. population at large as a consequence of new energy efficiency standards

3/11®12/98 

## F l 

## uo r

## esce nt Lamp Ballasts 

# Indirect Employment Impacts

.. Possible standards could affect consumer spending in two ways:

... increase the purchase prices of ballasts

.. decrease energy expenditures.



# .. Direct employment impacts will be analyzed in detail in the manufacturer impacts analysis

.. Indirect employment impacts are net jobs created or eliminated in the U.S. population at large as a consequence of new energy efficiency standards

3/11-12/98 

## Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts

# Electricity

Comme 

# rcia l: 

# b illi 

# on ® Ind ustri al: billion 

# Possible effi

# ciency energy exp

# end itures , , usually offsetti ng increases in equ i pment The savi ngs from may be spent to purchase othe r items. input/output model,estimates the effects on other sectors of the

3/11 

## -12/98 Fluorescent Ballasts 

# Background and ap roac
'. Electricity expenditures in 1996 were:**~** 

# Commercial: $75 billion

. - Industrial: $47 billion 

# • Possible energy efficiency**stan~ards** 

# reduce energy expenditures, usually offsetting projected increases in equipment prices overtime
• The savings from reduced energy expenditures may be spent 

# to purchase other items.

CD 

# An input/output model estimates the effects on other sectors of 

# the economy

. 3111-12/98 

## Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts

# cssib 6 

# ind wir,ffct • Reduced spending for electricity may cause , reductions in employment in the energy supply sector (electricity and fuels used to generate electricity) Shift i 

# ng i

# tems creat

# e Net job creati on o r e li wi ll

3/11-12/98 

## F l

## uo r

## escent 

# Possible indirect impact

. 

# • Reduced spending for electricity may cause

. reductions in employment in the energy supply sector (electricity and fuels used to generate electricity)
• Shifting spending away from energy toward other items may create jobs in other sectors
• Net job creation or elimination will be estimated

.

3/11-12/98 

## Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts•



# opreadsheet model developed by PNNL in 1998 for DOE U

. 

# S

. 

# economy characterized as interconnections among 35 sectors as national input-output structural mat rices' Input: shifts in exi (from s h i pments and National Energy Savings forecast) Output

: 

# chang e i 

# n employment by sector as a consequence of new standards

3/11-12/98 

## Fluor

## esce

# nt Ba l 

## lasts 

# IMBUIL O



# • Spreadsheet model developed by PNNL in 1998 for DOE
• U.S. economy characterized as interconnections among 35 sectors as national input-output structural matrices
• Input: shifts 

# in expenditures due to standards (from shipments and National Energy Savings forecast) 0" 

# Output: change in employment by sector as a consequence of new standards

3/11-12/98 

## Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts

### Indirect Employment Impacts of

Possible Standards for Flu orescent Lamp Ballasts .Su ry Indirect impacts are defined as net jobs created or eliminated in the population at large as a consequence of reduced spending on energy, and, possibly, increased spending on the purchase prices as a consequence of energy efficiency standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts. National impacts will be estimated for major sectors of the U.S. economy. Public and commercially available data sources will be utilized to estimate employment impacts. Public domain or commercially available software will be utilized. At least three scenarios will be analyzed to bound the range of uncertainty in future energy prices. All methods and documentation will be made available for review. ftrpose of

the Analysis If enacted, new energy efficiency standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts are expected to reduce expenditures for energy in buildings. The Indirect Employment Impacts analysis is intended to estimate national job creation or elimination from possible standards, indirect effects resulting from reallocation of the associated consumer expenditures for purchasing and operating lighting equipment. Assumptions In 1996, expenditures for electricity in commercial buildings exceeded $75 billion per year, and $47 billion per year for industrial customers. If enacted, new energy efficiency standards are expected to decrease energy consumption, and therefore reduce expenditures for energy. The same standards may increase the purchase price of fluorescent lamp ballasts. Over time, the increased purchase price is expected to be paid.back through energy savings. The savings in energy expenditures may be spent on other items. Using an input/output model of the U.S. economy, this analysis seeks to estimate the effects on different sectors, and the net impact on jobs. A simple model might involve reduced expenditures for energy, but reallocation of those monies into other expenditures. Even savings of a few dollars per customer per year, taken in aggregate for the nation, may trigger some changes in employment. While the creation of a new industry is not anticipated, small increases in jobs in many sectors may occur at the same time that decreases may occur for energy supply and lighting equipment manufacturing employment. This analysis is intended to quantify the indirect employment impacts from energy efficiency standards. (Direct impacts on lighting equipment manufacturers will be estimated in more detail elsewhere). Methods The existing structure of the economy from 1977 through 1994 has been derived from
1 Summary 

## Indirect Employment Impacts of Possible Standards for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts

Indirect impacts are defined as netjobs created or eliminated in the population at large as a consequence ofreduced spending on energy, and, possibly, increased spending on the purchase prices as a consequence ofenergy efficiency standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts. National impacts will be estimated for major sectors ofthe U.S. economy. Public and commercially available data sources will be utilized to estimate employment impacts. Public domain or commercially available software will be utilized. At least three scenarios will be analyzed to bound the range ofuncertainty in future energy prices. All methods and documentation will be made available for review. Purpose of theAnalysis Ifenacted, new energy efficiency standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts are expected to reduce expenditures for energy in buildings. The Indirect**~mployment** Impacts analysis is intended to estimate nationaljob creation or elimination from possible standards, indirect effects resulting from reallocation ofthe associated consumer expenditures for purchasing and operating lighting equipment. Assumptions In 1996, expenditures for electricity in commercial buildings exceeded $75.billion per year, and $47 billion per year for industrial customers. Ifenacted, new energy efficiency standards are expected to decrease energy consumption, and therefore reduce expenditures for energy. The same standards may increase the purchase price offluorescent lamp ballasts. Over time, the increased purchase price is expected to be paid .back through energy savings. The savings in energy expenditures may be spent on other items. Using an input/output model ofthe U.S. economy, this analysis seeks to estimate the effects on different sectors, and the net impact on jobs. A simple model might involve reduced expenditures for energy, but reallocation ofthose monies into other expenditures. Even savings ofa few dollars per customer per year, taken in aggregate for the nation, may trigger some changes in employment. While the creation ofa new industry is not anticipated, small increases injobs in many sectors may occur at the same time that decreases may occur for energy supply and lighting equipment manufacturing employment. This analysis is intended to quantify the indirect employment impacts from energy efficiency standards. (Direct impacts on lighting equipment manufacturers will be estimated in more detail elsewhere). Methods The existing structure ofthe economy from 1977 through 1994 has been derived from
1publicly available data. The Department of Energy's Office of Building Technology, State, and

Community Programs has developed a spreadsheet model that focuses on those sectors most relevant to buildings. This software ( D) is a PC-based economic analysis system that characterizes the interconnections among 35 sectors as national input-output structural matrices. The model can be applied to future time periods. The UII,D output includes employment, industry output, and wage income. The impacts of new energy efficiency standards will be calculated, expressed as energy savings (reduced energy expenditures), and increased purchase prices will be estimated for fluorescent lamp ballasts (see "Forecasting National Impacts" elsewhere), then those changes in expenditures will be introduced to EMBUELD as perturbations on the existing economic flows. The net national impact on jobs by sector will be estimated. For example, energy efficiency standards could reduce commercial and industrial energy expenditures and increase retail prices. In the short term, this may reduce jobs in lighting equipment manufacturing and energy supply, while increasing expenditures on other consumer items, causing job creation in other sectors, especially over the longer term.

Deliverables All methods and documentation will be available for review by interested parties and the public. The primary deliverable from the analysis will be national estimates of net job creation or elimination by sector. A research report will be written describing the data sources, methods and results.

2 publicly available data. The Department ofEnergy's Office ofBuilding Technology, State, and Community Programs has developed a spreadsheet model that focuses on those sectors most relevant to buildings. This software (IMBUILD) is a PC-based economic analysis system that characterizes the interconnections among 35 sectors as national input-output structural matrices. The model can be applied to future time periods. The 1MBUILD output includes employment, industry output, and wage income. The impacts ofnew energy efficiency standards will be calculated, expressed as energy savings (reduced energy expenditures), and increased purchase prices will be estimated for fluorescent lamp ballasts (see "Forecasting National Impacts" elsewhere), then those changes in expenditures will be introduced to IMBUILD as perturbations on the existing economic flows. The net national impact onjobs by sector will be estimated. For example, energy efficiency standards could reduce commercial and industrial energy expenditures and increase retail prices. In the short term, this may reducejobs in lighting equipment manufacturing and energy supply, while increasing expenditures on other consumer items, causingjob creation in other sectors, especially over the longer term.
Deliverables All methods and documentation will be available for review by interested parties and·the public. The primary deliverable from the analysis will be national estimates ofnetjob creation or elimination by sector. . A research report will be written describing the data sources, methods and results.

2