# 1 May 9, 2014

MEMORANDUM

SUBJECT: Request for Revised Ozone HREA Chapter 7 Appendix T ables

FROM: Erika Sasser, Acting Director /s/ Health and Environmental Impacts Division (C504-02) Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards United States Environmental Protection Agency

TO: Holly Stallworth Designated Federal Officer Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee EPA Science Advisory Board Staff Office

On May 1, 2014, members of the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee’s Ozone Review Panel requested EPA provide revised appendix tables assoc iated with the recently corrected Chapter 7 epidemiological-based risk results (see April 28, 2 014 technical memorandum “ Corrections to Estimates of Epidemiology-based Mortality and Morbidity Risks Presented in the Health Risk and Exposure Assessment for Ozone, Second External Review Draft ). Attached to this memorandum are all of the revised appendix tables that support the updated re sults provided in the above mentioned technical memorandum; these revised appendix tables correspon d numerically to the Chapter 7 appendix tables found in the Health Risk and Exposure Assessment for Ozone, Seco nd External Review Draft (second draft ozone HREA).

One structural change is reflected in the attached Appendix B Tables 7B-3, 7B-4, and 7B-5 that differs from the original Appendix B tables in the second draft ozone HREA. In addition to point esti mates of risk related to short-term ozone-attributable morbi dity (as was done in the second draft ozone HREA), we have also included the 95 th 

# percentile confidence intervals associated with th ese point estimates. Because these additional results expanded the numbe r of data rows beyond that used in the former table structure, we now provide two sub-tables for each f ormer table -- one for each simulation year. For example, the former Appendix B Table 7B-3, which co ntained risk results for the years 2007 and 2009, is now presented as Table 7B-3a and 7B-3b, which co ntains risk results for years 2007 and 2009, respectively.2Appendix 7A - Detailed Information on Effect Estimates, Baseline Incidence and Demographic Data Used in the EpidemiologicalBased Risk Assessment.**Endpoint Study** **Urban study area** **Study area template** **Study information (C-R function) Baseline incidence** **b Population** **Air metric Risk assessment** **modeling period Age** **range Lag** **Additional study** **details Statistical** **Model Effect** **estimate (Beta)** **SE (effect estimate)** **a 2007** **2009 2007** **2009 Core Risk - short-term exposure-related all-cause m** **ortality**Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Atlanta, GA CBSA D8HourMax March-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00024110.000291919,995 20,442 5,033,4535,205,933Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Baltimore, MD CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00041920.00033 11,703 11,598 2,664,3352,692,803Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Boston, MA CBSA D8HourMax April-September0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00028070.000342916,688 16,436 4,439,4534,519,143Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Cleveland, OH CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00056540.000314910,964 10,692 2,093,3762,082,741Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Denver, CO CBSA D8HourMaxMarch-September0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00016570.00035656,750 6,856 2,408,9862,498,144Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Detroit, MI CBSA D8HourMax April-September0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00064320.000311717,169 16,815 4,381,7854,316,185Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Houston, TX CBSA D8HourMaxJanuary-December0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00049990.000207530,191 30,927 5,539,8945,823,529Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Los Angeles, CA CBSA D8HourMaxJanuary-December0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00021790.000157172,824 72,935 12,615,16512,756,237Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009New York, NY CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00101140.000207478,036 76,645 18,554,57418,779,754Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Philadelphia, PA CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.0007140.000284628,177 27,658 5,876,6835,936,034Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Sacramento, CA CBSA D8HourMaxJanuary-December0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00030160.000314513,198 13,361 2,077,4872,127,784Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009St. Louis, MO CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00054010.000342813,944 13,686 2,779,5582,803,333**Core Risk - long-term exposure-related respiratory mortality** Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2009Atlanta, GA CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA - log-linear0.00392210.00132493,133 3,216 2,833,3992,954,650Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2010Baltimore, MD CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA - log-linear0.00392210.00132492,056 2,034 1,587,5381,609,957Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2011Boston, MA CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA - log-linear0.00392210.00132493,685 3,622 2,690,9812,747,634Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2012Cleveland, OH CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA - log-linear0.00392210.00132491,833 1,783 1,294,4581,294,8453**Endpoint Study** **Urban study area** **Study area template** **Study information (C-R function) Baseline incidence** **b Population** **Air metric Risk assessment** **modeling period Age** **range Lag** **Additional study** **details Statistical** **Model Effect** **estimate (Beta)** **SE (effect estimate)** **a 2007** **2009 2007** **2009**Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2013Denver, CO CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA - log-linear0.00392210.00132491,549 1,574 1,396,5141,454,586Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2014Detroit, MI CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA - log-linear0.00392210.00132493,230 3,153 2,636,9352,628,339Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2015Houston, TX CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA - log-linear0.00392210.00132492,790 2,859 3,001,5373,165,283Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2016Los Angeles, CA CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA - log-linear0.00392210.00132497,480 7,512 7,072,4187,236,439Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2017New York, NY CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA - log-linear0.00392210.001324912,304 12,067 11,118,31511,303,888Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2018Philadelphia, PA CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA - log-linear0.00392210.00132494,993 4,891 3,488,1013,545,106Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2019Sacramento, CA CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA - log-linear0.00392210.00132491,669 1,690 1,185,9901,221,735Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2020St. Louis, MO CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA - log-linear0.00392210.00132492,535 2,485 1,649,2091,676,509**Core Risk - short-term exposure-related morbidity**HA, All RespiratoryKatsouyanni etal., 2009Detroit, MI CBSA D1HourMax June-August 65-99average of lag0 and lag 1penalizedsplineslog-linear0.00056 0.0003526,538 6,694 539,077 557,511HA, All RespiratoryKatsouyanni etal., 2009Detroit, MI CBSA D1HourMax June-August 65-99average of lag0 and lag 1naturalsplineslog-linear0.00054 0.00035716,538 6,694 539,077 557,511HA, AsthmaSilverman and Ito,2010New York, NY CBSA D8HourMax April-October 6-18average of lag0 and lag 1- log-linear0.0079070.00378621,697 1,683 3,197,3603,173,355HA, AsthmaSilverman and Ito,2010New York, NY CBSA D8HourMax April-October 6-18average of lag0 and lag 1PM2.5 log-linear0.00555530.00369261,697 1,683 3,197,3603,173,355HA, Chronic LungDiseaseLin et al. (a),2008New York, NY CBSA D1HourMax April-October 0-17 Lag2 d - log-linear0.00076090.0001634,340 4,300 4,388,4344,344,448HA, All Respiratory Linn et al., 2000 Los Angeles,CA CBSA D24HourMeanJune-August 30-99 Lag 0d - log-linear0.0006 0.0007 19,320 20,259 7,072,4187,236,439HA, Chronic LungDisease (lessAsthma)Medina-Ramon etal, 2006Atlanta, GA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99distributed lag0-1 d- logistic 0.000540.0001992,160 2,358 412,999 453,851HA, Chronic LungDisease (lessAsthma)Medina-Ramon etal, 2006Baltimore, MD CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99distributed lag0-1 d- logistic 0.000540.0001991,540 1,593 320,763 334,5994**Endpoint Study** **Urban study area** **Study area template** **Study information (C-R function) Baseline incidence** **b Population** **Air metric Risk assessment** **modeling period Age** **range Lag** **Additional study** **details Statistical** **Model Effect** **estimate (Beta)** **SE (effect estimate)** **a 2007** **2009 2007** **2009**HA, Chronic LungDisease (lessAsthma)Medina-Ramon etal, 2006Boston, MA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99distributed lag0-1 d- logistic 0.000540.0001992,577 2,657 559,310 581,219HA, Chronic LungDisease (lessAsthma)Medina-Ramon etal, 2006Cleveland, OH CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99distributed lag0-1 d- logistic 0.000540.0001991,587 1,612 305,763 312,042HA, Chronic LungDisease (lessAsthma)Medina-Ramon etal, 2006Denver, CO CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99distributed lag0-1 d- logistic 0.000540.000199623 665 227,092 245,643HA, Chronic LungDisease (lessAsthma)Medina-Ramon etal, 2006Detroit, MI CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99distributed lag0-1 d- logistic 0.000540.0001992,870 2,935 539,077 557,511HA, Chronic LungDisease (lessAsthma)Medina-Ramon etal, 2006Houston, TX CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99distributed lag0-1 d- logistic 0.000540.0001992,716 2,922 451,335 489,474HA, Chronic LungDisease (lessAsthma)Medina-Ramon etal, 2006Los Angeles, CA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99distributed lag0-1 d- logistic 0.000540.0001994,059 4,302 1,309,3291,372,256HA, Chronic LungDisease (lessAsthma)Medina-Ramon etal, 2006New York, NY CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99distributed lag0-1 d- logistic 0.000540.0001999,026 9,235 2,359,3512,427,316HA, Chronic LungDisease (lessAsthma)Medina-Ramon etal, 2006Philadelphia, PA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99distributed lag0-1 d- logistic 0.000540.0001993,825 3,920 755,595 780,220HA, Chronic LungDisease (lessAsthma)Medina-Ramon etal, 2006Sacramento, CA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99distributed lag0-1 d- logistic 0.000540.000199606 649 235,921 250,905HA, Chronic LungDisease (lessAsthma)Medina-Ramon etal, 2006St. Louis, MO CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99distributed lag0-1 d- logistic 0.000540.0001991,653 1,697 357,309 368,743Emergency RoomVisits, RespiratoryStrickland et al.,2010Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GAD8HourMaxMarch-October(8)5-17distributed lag0-7 d- log-linear0.00478640.000760233,322 34,432 963,574 995,654Emergency RoomVisits, RespiratoryStrickland et al.,2010Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GAD8HourMaxMarch-October(8)5-17average of lags0-2- log-linear0.0026990.000645633,322 34,432 963,574 995,654Emergency RoomVisits, RespiratoryTolbert et al.,2007Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GAD8HourMaxMarch-October(8)0-99average of lags0-2- log-linear0.0012860.0002062122,122 126,0135,033,4535,205,9345**Endpoint Study** **Urban study area** **Study area template** **Study information (C-R function) Baseline incidence** **b Population** **Air metric Risk assessment** **modeling period Age** **range Lag** **Additional study** **details Statistical** **Model Effect** **estimate (Beta)** **SE (effect estimate)** **a 2007** **2009 2007** **2009**Emergency RoomVisits, RespiratoryTolbert et al.,2007Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GAD8HourMaxMarch-October(8)0-99average of lags0-2CO log-linear0.00114080.0002283122,122 126,0135,033,4535,205,934Emergency RoomVisits, RespiratoryTolbert et al.,2007Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GAD8HourMaxMarch-October(8)0-99average of lags0-2NO2 log-linear0.00102870.0002506122,122 126,0135,033,4535,205,934Emergency RoomVisits, RespiratoryTolbert et al.,2007Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GAD8HourMaxMarch-October(8)0-99average of lags0-2PM10 log-linear0.00080320.000267122,122 126,0135,033,4535,205,934Emergency RoomVisits, RespiratoryTolbert et al.,2007Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GAD8HourMaxMarch-October(8)0-99average of lags0-2PM10,NO2log-linear0.00077490.0002672122,122 126,0135,033,4535,205,934Emergency RoomVisits, RespiratoryDarrow et al.,2011Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GAD8HourMaxMarch-October(8)0-99 Lag 1d - log-linear0.00068520.0001385122,122 126,0135,033,4535,205,934Emergency RoomVisits, AsthmaIto et al., 2007 New York, NYNew York,NYD8HourMax April-October (7)0-99average of lag0 and lag 1- log-linear0.00521340.000908752,867 53,243 18,554,57418,779,754Emergency RoomVisits, AsthmaIto et al., 2007 New York, NYNew York,NYD8HourMax April-October (7)0-99average of lag0 and lag 1PM2.5 log-linear0.00397570.000978952,867 53,243 18,554,57418,779,754Emergency RoomVisits, AsthmaIto et al., 2007 New York, NYNew York,NYD8HourMax April-October (7)0-99average of lag0 and lag 1NO2 log-linear0.00323370.000935952,867 53,243 18,554,57418,779,754Emergency RoomVisits, AsthmaIto et al., 2007 New York, NYNew York,NYD8HourMax April-October (7)0-99average of lag0 and lag 1CO log-linear0.00554370.000893952,867 53,243 18,554,57418,779,754Emergency RoomVisits, AsthmaIto et al., 2007 New York, NYNew York,NYD8HourMax April-October (7)0-99average of lag0 and lag 1SO2 log-linear0.0041150.000922652,867 53,243 18,554,57418,779,754AsthmaExacerbation, ChestTightnessGent et al., 2003Boston, MA Boston, MAD1HourMaxApril-September(6)0-12 Lag 1d - logistic 0.00076090.0020002138,691 138,494702,975 700,631AsthmaExacerbation, ChestTightnessGent et al., 2003Boston, MA Boston, MAD8HourMaxApril-September(6)0-12 Lag 1d - logistic 0.00570360.0020217138,691 138,494702,975 700,631AsthmaExacerbation, ChestTightnessGent et al., 2003Boston, MA Boston, MAD1HourMaxApril-September(6)0-12 Lag 1d PM2.5 logistic 0.00770520.0022666138,691 138,494702,975 700,631AsthmaExacerbation, ChestTightnessGent et al., 2003Boston, MA Boston, MAD1HourMaxApril-September(6)0-12 Lag 1d PM2.5 logistic 0.00701310.0022734138,691 138,494702,975 700,631AsthmaExacerbation,Shortness of BreathGent et al., 2003Boston, MA Boston, MAD1HourMaxApril-September(6)0-12 Lag 1d - logistic 0.0039770.0017947173,364 173,117702,975 700,6316**Endpoint Study** **Urban study area** **Study area template** **Study information (C-R function) Baseline incidence** **b Population** **Air metric Risk assessment** **modeling period Age** **range Lag** **Additional study** **details Statistical** **Model Effect** **estimate (Beta)** **SE (effect estimate)** **a 2007** **2009 2007** **2009**AsthmaExacerbation,Shortness of BreathGent et al., 2003Boston, MA Boston, MAD8HourMaxApril-September(6)0-12 Lag 1d - logistic 0.00524730.0021808173,364 173,117702,975 700,631AsthmaExacerbation,WheezeGent et al., 2003Boston, MA Boston, MAD1HourMaxApril-September(6)0-12 Lag 0d PM2.5 logistic 0.00600210.0020225323,613 323,152702,975 700,631**Sensitivity Analysis - short-term exposure-related all-cause mortality** Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Atlanta, GAEpi studybasedD8HourMax March-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00024110.0002919SAcompletedfor 20096,267SAcompletedfor 20091,589,914Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Baltimore, MDEpi studybasedD8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00041920.00033 3,287 621,421Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Boston, MAEpi studybasedD8HourMax April-September0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00028070.00034292,252 715,296Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Cleveland, OHEpi studybasedD8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00056540.00031497,541 1,287,137Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Denver, COEpi studybasedD8HourMaxMarch-September0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00016570.00035655,140 1,578,451Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Detroit, MIEpi studybasedD8HourMax April-September0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00064320.00031178,174 1,842,465Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Houston, TXEpi studybasedD8HourMaxJanuary-December0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00049990.000207519,642 4,017,371Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Los Angeles, CAEpi studybasedD8HourMaxJanuary-December0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00021790.000157155,949 9,776,644Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009New York, NYEpi studybasedD8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00101140.000207433,006 9,066,479Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Philadelphia, PAEpi studybasedD8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.0007140.00028467,835 1,513,040Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Sacramento, CAEpi studybasedD8HourMaxJanuary-December0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00030160.00031459,225 1,405,572Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009St. Louis, MOEpi studybasedD8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 d- log-linear0.00054010.00034281,688 319,302Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Atlanta, GA CBSA D8HourMax March-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 dRegionalBayes-basedlog-linear0.00026030.0002359SAcompletedfor 200920,442SAcompletedfor 20095,205,933Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Baltimore, MD CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 dRegionalBayes-basedlog-linear0.00093990.000282911,598 2,692,8037**Endpoint Study** **Urban study area** **Study area template** **Study information (C-R function) Baseline incidence** **b Population** **Air metric Risk assessment** **modeling period Age** **range Lag** **Additional study** **details Statistical** **Model Effect** **estimate (Beta)** **SE (effect estimate)** **a 2007** **2009 2007** **2009**Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Boston, MA CBSA D8HourMax April-September0-99distributed lag0-6 dRegionalBayes-basedlog-linear0.00088270.000300416,436 4,519,143Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Cleveland, OH CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 dRegionalBayes-basedlog-linear0.00067890.000263710,692 2,082,741Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Denver, CO CBSA D8HourMaxMarch-September0-99distributed lag0-6 dRegionalBayes-basedlog-linear0.00002930.00035026,856 2,498,144Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Detroit, MI CBSA D8HourMax April-September0-99distributed lag0-6 dRegionalBayes-basedlog-linear0.00071590.000262216,815 4,316,185Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Houston, TX CBSA D8HourMaxJanuary-December0-99distributed lag0-6 dRegionalBayes-basedlog-linear0.0004230.000182530,927 5,823,529Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Los Angeles, CA CBSA D8HourMaxJanuary-December0-99distributed lag0-6 dRegionalBayes-basedlog-linear0.00019880.00015172,935 12,756,237Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009New York, NY CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 dRegionalBayes-basedlog-linear0.00112230.000180876,645 18,779,754Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Philadelphia, PA CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 dRegionalBayes-basedlog-linear0.0010260.000239527,658 5,936,034Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Sacramento, CA CBSA D8HourMaxJanuary-December0-99distributed lag0-6 dRegionalBayes-basedlog-linear0.0001070.00032313,361 2,127,784Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009St. Louis, MO CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 dRegionalBayes-basedlog-linear0.00067540.00028 13,686 2,803,333Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Atlanta, GA CBSA D8HourMax March-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 dPM10 log-linear0.00011830.0005456SAcompletedfor 200920,442SAcompletedfor 20095,205,933Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Baltimore, MD CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 dPM10 log-linear0.00047270.00053111,598 2,692,803Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Boston, MA CBSA D8HourMax April-September0-99distributed lag0-6 dPM10 log-linear0.00015910.000575216,436 4,519,1438**Endpoint Study** **Urban study area** **Study area template** **Study information (C-R function) Baseline incidence** **b Population** **Air metric Risk assessment** **modeling period Age** **range Lag** **Additional study** **details Statistical** **Model Effect** **estimate (Beta)** **SE (effect estimate)** **a 2007** **2009 2007** **2009**Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Cleveland, OH CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 dPM10 log-linear0.00046260.000433510,692 2,082,741Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Denver, CO CBSA D8HourMaxMarch-September0-99distributed lag0-6 dPM10 log-linear-0.00003830.00052636,856 2,498,144Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Detroit, MI CBSA D8HourMax April-September0-99distributed lag0-6 dPM10 log-linear0.0002860.000406616,815 4,316,185Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Houston, TX CBSA D8HourMaxJanuary-December0-99distributed lag0-6 dPM10 log-linear0.0006310.000362330,927 5,823,529Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Los Angeles, CA CBSA D8HourMaxJanuary-December0-99distributed lag0-6 dPM10 log-linear0.00005240.000347372,935 12,756,237Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009New York, NY CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 dPM10 log-linear0.00044070.000390476,645 18,779,754Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Philadelphia, PA CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 dPM10 log-linear0.00054450.000518627,658 5,936,034Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009Sacramento, CA CBSA D8HourMaxJanuary-December0-99distributed lag0-6 dPM10 log-linear0.00028050.000543413,361 2,127,784Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009St. Louis, MO CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99distributed lag0-6 dPM10 log-linear0.00036020.000581313,686 2,803,333Mortality, All CauseZanobetti andSchwartz (b),2008Atlanta, GA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99distributed lag0-3 d- log-linear0.00029540.0002886SAcompletedfor 20098,448SAcompletedfor 20095,205,933Mortality, All CauseZanobetti andSchwartz (b),2008Baltimore, MD CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99distributed lag0-3 d- log-linear0.0005150.0003145,327 2,692,803Mortality, All CauseZanobetti andSchwartz (b),2008Boston, MA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99distributed lag0-3 d- log-linear0.00068160.00032848,726 4,519,143Mortality, All CauseZanobetti andSchwartz (b),2008Cleveland, OH CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99distributed lag0-3 d- log-linear0.00059620.00035464,838 2,082,741Mortality, All CauseZanobetti andSchwartz (b),2008Denver, CO CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99distributed lag0-3 d- log-linear0.00035180.00040883,351 2,498,144Mortality, All CauseZanobetti andSchwartz (b),2008Detroit, MI CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99distributed lag0-3 d- log-linear0.00104590.00034418,977 4,316,185Mortality, All CauseZanobetti andSchwartz (b),2008Houston, TX CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99distributed lag0-3 d- log-linear0.00016290.00026288,712 5,823,5299**Endpoint Study** **Urban study area** **Study area template** **Study information (C-R function) Baseline incidence** **b Population** **Air metric Risk assessment** **modeling period Age** **range Lag** **Additional study** **details Statistical** **Model Effect** **estimate (Beta)** **SE (effect estimate)** **a 2007** **2009 2007** **2009**Mortality, All CauseZanobetti andSchwartz (b),2008Los Angeles, CA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99distributed lag0-3 d- log-linear0.00027370.000213419,665 12,756,237Mortality, All CauseZanobetti andSchwartz (b),2008New York, NY CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99distributed lag0-3 d- log-linear0.00109250.000235734,611 18,779,754Mortality, All CauseZanobetti andSchwartz (b),2008Philadelphia, PA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99distributed lag0-3 d- log-linear0.00062460.000314612,678 5,936,034Mortality, All CauseZanobetti andSchwartz (b),2008Sacramento, CA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99distributed lag0-3 d- log-linear0.00056910.00038853,657 2,127,784Mortality, All CauseZanobetti andSchwartz (b),2008St. Louis, MO CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99distributed lag0-3 d- log-linear0.00054440.00033346,359 2,803,333**Sensitivity Analysis - long-term exposure-related r espiratory mortality** Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2009Atlanta, GA CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA Regionallog-linear0.01133290.0031929SAcompletedfor 20093,216SAcompletedfor 20092,954,650Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2010Baltimore, MD CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA Regionallog-linear-0.0010050.00385312,034 1,609,957Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2011Boston, MA CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA Regionallog-linear-0.0010050.00385313,622 2,747,634Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2012Cleveland, OH CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA Regionallog-linear0 0.00460431,783 1,294,845Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2013Denver, CO CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA Regionallog-linear0.00582690.00311781,574 1,454,586Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2014Detroit, MI CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA Regionallog-linear0 0.00460433,153 2,628,339Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2015Houston, TX CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA Regionallog-linear0.01133290.00319292,859 3,165,283Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2016Los Angeles, CA CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA Regionallog-linear0.0009950.00276747,512 7,236,439Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2017New York, NY CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA Regionallog-linear-0.0010050.003853112,067 11,303,888Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2018Philadelphia, PA CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA Regionallog-linear-0.0010050.00385314,891 3,545,106Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2019Sacramento, CA CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA Regionallog-linear0.00582690.00311781,690 1,221,73510**Endpoint Study** **Urban study area** **Study area template** **Study information (C-R function) Baseline incidence** **b Population** **Air metric Risk assessment** **modeling period Age** **range Lag** **Additional study** **details Statistical** **Model Effect** **estimate (Beta)** **SE (effect estimate)** **a 2007** **2009 2007** **2009**Mortality,RespiratoryJerrett et al.,2020St. Louis, MO CBSASeasonal-avgD1hrMaxApril-September30-99 NA Regionallog-linear0 0.00460432,485 1,676,509a-all Beta distributions assumed to be normalb-Gent et al., 2003 also use the following prevalence rates: 0.028 (wheeze), 0.015 (shortness of breath), 0.012 (chest tightness) (from study)

# 11 

# Appendix 7B – Detailed Summary of Core Risk Estimat es

Table 7B-1. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mor tality (2007) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,000) (Smith et al., 20 09)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**

250 220 210 200 190 31 10 18 28 (-350 - 840) (-310 - 740) (-300 - 710) (-280 - 680) (-2 70 - 650) (-42 - 100) (-13 - 32) (-24 - 60) (-39 - 95)

240 230 220 210 210 12 7 14 23 (-130 - 600) (-130 - 570) (-120 - 560) (-120 - 540) (-1 10 - 520) (-6 - 30) (-4 - 17) (-8 - 35) (-13 - 59)

210 200 200 190 180 3 4 11 18 (-290 - 680) (-290 - 670) (-280 - 660) (-270 - 640) (-2 60 - 620) (-5 - 11) (-6 - 14) (-16 - 39) (-25 - 62)

270 270 260 250 230 0 8 20 40 (-25 - 550) (-25 - 550) (-24 - 540) (-23 - 510) (-21 - 470) (0 - -1) (-1 - 18) (-2 - 41) (-4 - 83)

59 58 57 55 53 1 1 3 5 (-190 - 300) (-190 - 300) (-190 - 290) (-180 - 280) (-1 70 - 270) (-2 - 3) (-4 - 7) (-10 - 15) (-17 - 27)

520 520 500 480 460 2 18 33 54 (26 - 990) (26 - 990) (25 - 960) (25 - 930) (24 - 890) ( 0 - 4) (1 - 35) (2 - 64) (3 - 110)

540 580 580 570 560 -39 4 9 20 (100 - 970) (110 - 1000) (110 - 1000) (110 - 1000) (110 - 1000) (-7 - -71) (1 - 8) (2 - 17) (4 - 37)

640 750 730 700 660 -110 26 52 96 (-270 - 1500) (-310 - 1800) (-300 - 1700) (-290 - 1700 ) (-270 - 1600) (46 - -270) (-11 - 62) (-22 - 130) (-40 - 230)

3400 3200 3100 2500 170 150 740 (2000 - 4700) (1900 - 4500) (1900 - 4300) (1500 - 3500 ) (100 - 240) (92 - 220) (440 - 1000)

960 920 890 860 830 47 26 56 86 (210 - 1700) (200 - 1600) (200 - 1600) (190 - 1500) (18 0 - 1500) (10 - 84) (6 - 46) (12 - 100) (19 - 150)

170 160 160 160 150 5 3 6 10 (-180 - 500) (-170 - 480) (-170 - 470) (-160 - 470) (-1 60 - 450) (-5 - 15) (-3 - 9) (-6 - 17) (-11 - 31)

370 350 330 320 300 22 15 31 49 (-92 - 810) (-86 - 770) (-83 - 740) (-79 - 700) (-74 - 660) (-6 - 50) (-4 - 33) (-8 - 70) (-12 - 110)

**Base 75ppb**  **70ppb 65ppb**  **60ppb Base-75**  **75-70 75-65**  **75-60 Atlanta, GA**  1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 12 4 8 13 **Baltimore, MD** 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 5 3 6 10 **Boston, MA** 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 2 2 5 9 **Cleveland, OH** 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 -0.1 3 7 14 **Denver, CO** 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1 2 5 9 **Detroit, MI** 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 0.3 3 6 10 **Houston, TX** 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 -7 1 2 3 **Los Angeles, CA** 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 -17 3 7 13 **New York, NY** 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.2 NA 5 5 22 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 5 3 6 9 **Sacramento, CA** 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 3 2 3 6 **St. Louis, MO** 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 6 4 9 14

**Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60 Atlanta, GA**  5.0 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 0.61 0.19 0.35 0.56 **Baltimore, MD** 9.0 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.7 0.44 0.25 0.52 0.87 **Boston, MA** 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.1 0.074 0.092 0.26 0.41 **Cleveland, OH** 13 13 12 12 11 -0.011 0.40 0.95 1.9 **Denver, CO** 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 0.023 0.054 0.12 0.22 **Detroit, MI** 12 12 11 11 11 0.049 0.41 0.75 1.2 **Houston, TX** 9.8 10 10 10 10 -0.70 0.075 0.17 0.36 **Los Angeles, CA** 5.1 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.2 -0.88 0.20 0.41 0.76 **New York, NY** 18 17 17 14 NA 0.93 0.83 4.0 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 16 16 15 15 14 0.81 0.44 0.96 1.5 **Sacramento, CA** 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.3 0.23 0.14 0.27 0.49 **St. Louis, MO** 13 13 12 11 11 0.81 0.53 1.1 1.7 **Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000**  **Study Area Los Angeles, CA** 

**New York, NY**

**Sacramento, CA**

**St. Louis, MO**

**Air Quality Scenario** NA NA **Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence** 

**Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 
**Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O**  **3** 

## -Attributable Risk **Philadelphia, PA Atlanta, GA** 

**Baltimore, MD**

**Boston, MA**

**Cleveland, OH**

**Denver, CO**

**Detroit, MI**

**Houston, TX**

# 12

Table 7B-2. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mor tality (2009) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,000) (Smith et al., 20 09)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. For Detroit, 2009 base a ir quality already just meets existing standard. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**

200 200 190 190 180 4 7 13 19 (-280 - 680) (-280 - 670) (-270 - 650) (-260 - 620) (-2 50 - 610) (-5 - 13) (-10 - 24) (-18 - 45) (-26 - 64)

210 210 200 200 190 3 4 9 14 (-120 - 530) (-110 - 520) (-110 - 510) (-110 - 500) (-1 10 - 480) (-2 - 7) (-2 - 10) (-5 - 23) (-8 - 37)

180 180 180 180 180 -1 -1 3 8 (-260 - 610) (-260 - 610) (-260 - 620) (-260 - 600) (-2 50 - 590) (2 - -4) (1 - -2) (-4 - 10) (-11 - 27)

250 250 240 230 220 -3 7 18 31 (-23 - 510) (-23 - 510) (-22 - 500) (-21 - 480) (-20 - 450) (0 - -6) (-1 - 15) (-2 - 37) (-3 - 64)

56 56 56 55 51 0 0 1 5 (-180 - 290) (-180 - 290) (-180 - 290) (-180 - 280) (-1 70 - 260) (1 - -1) (-1 - 1) (-4 - 7) (-15 - 25)

460 460 470 460 440 -17 -5 12 (23 - 880) (23 - 880) (24 - 910) (23 - 890) (23 - 850) ( -1 - -33) (0 - -10) (1 - 23)

550 600 600 590 580 -47 -1 3 12 (100 - 990) (110 - 1100) (110 - 1100) (110 - 1100) (110 - 1000) (-9 - -85) (0 - -1) (1 - 6) (2 - 22)

670 770 750 720 670 -99 25 53 98 (-280 - 1600) (-320 - 1800) (-310 - 1800) (-300 - 1700 ) (-280 - 1600) (41 - -240) (-10 - 60) (-22 - 130) (-41 - 240)

2900 3000 2900 2500 -89 96 500 (1800 - 4100) (1800 - 4200) (1800 - 4100) (1500 - 3500 ) (-53 - -120) (57 - 130) (300 - 700)

820 820 810 790 770 -4 14 33 51 (180 - 1400) (180 - 1400) (180 - 1400) (170 - 1400) (17 0 - 1400) (-1 - -8) (3 - 25) (7 - 58) (11 - 90)

170 160 160 160 150 5 3 5 9 (-180 - 500) (-170 - 490) (-170 - 480) (-170 - 470) (-1 60 - 460) (-5 - 14) (-3 - 8) (-6 - 17) (-10 - 28)

310 310 300 290 280 1 7 17 30 (-77 - 690) (-77 - 690) (-75 - 670) (-73 - 650) (-69 - 620) (0 - 3) (-2 - 15) (-4 - 37) (-7 - 67)

**Base 75ppb**  **70ppb 65ppb**  **60ppb Base-75**  **75-70 75-65**  **75-60 Atlanta, GA**  1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 3 7 9 **Baltimore, MD** 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1 2 4 7 **Boston, MA** 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 -1 -0.3 2 4 **Cleveland, OH** 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 -1 3 7 12 **Denver, CO** 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 -0.4 0.3 2 8 **Detroit, MI** 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 NA -4 -1 3 **Houston, TX** 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 -8 -0.1 0.5 2 **Los Angeles, CA** 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 -15 3 7 13 **New York, NY** 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.3 NA -3 3 16 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 -1 2 4 6 **Sacramento, CA** 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 3 2 3 6 **St. Louis, MO** 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 0.4 2 5 9

**Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60 Atlanta, GA**  3.9 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 0.071 0.14 0.26 0.37 **Baltimore, MD** 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.2 0.11 0.14 0.33 0.54 **Boston, MA** 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 -0.028 -0.013 0.064 0.18 **Cleveland, OH** 12 12 12 11 11 -0.14 0.35 0.86 1.5 **Denver, CO** 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 -0.0098 0.0081 0.054 0.19 **Detroit, MI** 11 11 11 11 10 NA -0.39 -0.11 0.28 **Houston, TX** 9.4 10 10 10 10 -0.80 -0.010 0.054 0.21 **Los Angeles, CA** 5.3 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.3 -0.77 0.19 0.42 0.77 **New York, NY** 16 16 16 14 NA -0.47 0.51 2.7 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 14 14 14 13 13 -0.070 0.24 0.55 0.85 **Sacramento, CA** 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.2 0.21 0.13 0.26 0.44 **St. Louis, MO** 11 11 11 10 10 0.041 0.24 0.60 1.1 **Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence** 

**Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 
**Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O**  **3** 

## -Attributable Risk **Philadelphia, PA Atlanta, GA** 

**Baltimore, MD**

**Boston, MA**

**Cleveland, OH**

**Denver, CO**

**Detroit, MI**

**Houston, TX**

**Study Area Los Angeles, CA** 

**New York, NY**

**Sacramento, CA**

**St. Louis, MO** NA

NA NA

**Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000**  **Air Quality Scenario**

# 13

Figure 7B-1 Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mort ality (2007) (heat map tables – absolute ozone-attributable incidence) (Smith et al., 2009)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb.

**Recent conditions**

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 1 2 4 10 13 17 24 34 47 29 30 20 19 252 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 1 4 10 10 25 20 28 30 29 18 33 20 13 240 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 5 10 27 24 36 22 17 18 14 10 5 17 205 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 2 5 14 28 30 45 34 33 25 23 15 6 7 268 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 6 9 12 12 6 3 1 59 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 1 0 5 23 31 48 76 96 50 30 41 20 29 68 518 **Houston, TX** 0 1 6 20 41 58 74 71 61 49 51 28 25 27 26 3 542 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 3 14 33 38 69 58 96 84 81 79 35 20 15 17 643 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 47 93 169 339 549 326 446 306 228 222 266 205 197 3,391 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 1 5 15 39 63 70 118 97 112 117 69 93 86 76 961 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 2 7 10 17 25 19 21 20 19 10 7 5 3 165 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 1 1 2 9 17 34 49 33 58 48 32 25 23 36 369



## Current Standard (75)

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 2 4 15 20 34 43 52 31 12 5 3 0 222 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 1 6 11 22 43 37 36 38 23 6 5 2 228 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 2 11 26 29 33 33 20 12 17 5 7 6 202 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 1 3 9 25 41 55 50 27 25 19 8 6 0 268 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 9 12 15 10 3 1 0 58 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 0 1 5 33 56 97 116 59 41 44 16 34 14 516 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 0 14 42 107 124 126 81 42 42 2 0 0 0 580 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 204 268 233 27 8 3 0 0 753 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 0 24 113 341 625 851 545 418 268 45 0 0 0 3,230 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 0 2 0 25 46 115 157 175 155 122 75 31 7 7 916 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 1 8 23 43 29 29 17 9 2 1 0 0 161 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 1 2 6 15 52 53 61 60 38 24 23 10 3 348



## Alternative Standard 70

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 2 7 16 23 43 53 43 17 6 3 0 0 212 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 1 6 7 28 49 44 43 26 11 5 2 0 222 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 2 11 27 35 31 31 21 16 8 7 4 4 198 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 1 2 10 26 45 67 47 24 21 14 4 0 0 260 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 11 17 15 4 2 0 0 57 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 0 0 5 33 65 119 113 50 55 23 24 13 0 499 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 0 8 41 108 141 139 81 45 11 0 0 0 0 576 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 240 362 98 5 5 0 0 0 727 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 0 15 156 392 749 930 597 224 20 0 0 0 0 3,083 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 0 0 2 23 45 133 202 167 160 89 57 6 7 0 891 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 7 24 47 35 30 9 6 0 1 0 0 158 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 1 2 7 20 61 61 68 47 34 24 9 0 0 333



## Alternative Standard 65

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 1 8 20 24 54 55 31 8 4 0 0 0 204 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 1 5 11 34 51 44 43 19 6 2 0 0 215 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 1 11 31 36 37 31 21 12 6 3 2 0 191 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 2 11 34 57 65 42 22 11 4 0 0 0 249 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 14 21 10 2 0 0 0 55 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 0 0 3 33 74 144 96 56 37 29 12 0 0 484 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 0 4 36 119 155 149 69 38 0 0 0 0 0 571 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 312 288 29 7 3 0 0 0 701 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 0 43 694 710 1,057 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,519 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 0 0 2 23 45 143 228 197 148 63 6 6 0 0 862 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 5 28 50 41 22 7 2 1 0 0 0 155 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 0 2 7 29 62 69 75 38 28 6 0 0 0 317



## Alternative Standard 60

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 2 10 21 41 53 48 16 2 0 0 0 0 194 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 1 5 12 45 56 56 25 7 0 0 0 0 206 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 1 12 39 29 53 26 12 7 3 2 0 0 184 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 3 15 51 66 70 15 10 0 0 0 0 0 229 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 21 18 3 0 0 0 0 53 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 0 0 2 39 106 139 101 47 31 0 0 0 0 463 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 0 0 28 136 192 152 48 4 0 0 0 0 0 560 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 225 264 151 11 0 0 0 0 0 658 **New York, NY Philadelphia, PA**  0 0 0 0 2 21 61 161 263 218 97 5 6 0 0 0 834 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 4 33 59 38 13 4 1 0 0 0 0 151 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 0 2 8 45 73 92 46 29 4 0 0 0 0 300 NA

# 14

Figure 7B-2. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mo rtality (2007) (heat map tables – change in absolute ozone-attributable incidence) (Smith et al ., 2009) Note: negative values are risk increases, positive values are risk reductions

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Decrease recent conditions to 75**

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Inc. Dec.**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 5 5 4 4 31 0 31 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 2 2 4 3 2 12 -6 18 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 3 -4 6 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 -8 7 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 -1 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 1 1 2 3 2 3 9 2 -19 22 **Houston, TX** 0 -2 -6 -11 -14 -15 -10 -6 0 3 5 3 4 4 5 1 -39 -65 26 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 -7 -18 -28 -22 -26 -14 -14 -5 1 7 5 4 3 4 -111 -134 25 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 -18 -30 -31 -43 -25 7 44 39 38 38 56 48 49 172 -169 341 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -9 -9 -5 0 3 10 12 9 14 14 15 47 -36 82 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 5 -7 13 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 2 4 4 3 3 3 5 22 -3 27



## Decrease 75 to 70

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Inc. Dec.**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 10 0 10 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 7 0 6 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 3 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 8 0 10 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 3 2 3 1 3 1 18 0 19 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 -3 8 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 10 10 1 0 0 0 0 26 0 25 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 14 31 37 41 29 6 0 0 0 154 -13 167 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 5 6 6 4 2 0 1 26 -2 27 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 15 0 16



## Decrease 75 to 65

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Inc. Dec.**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 5 3 1 1 0 0 18 0 18 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 4 2 1 1 0 14 0 15 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 11 0 12 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 0 20 -1 20 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 3 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 3 7 5 4 5 2 5 2 33 -2 35 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 0 4 4 3 4 0 0 0 0 9 -8 16 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 20 21 2 1 0 0 0 52 0 52 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 0 -1 2 27 98 172 156 156 103 22 0 0 0 735 -7 742 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 5 11 13 14 9 4 1 1 56 -4 60 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 6 -1 6 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 6 5 3 3 2 0 31 0 31



## Decrease 75 to 60

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Inc. Dec.**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 7 5 2 1 1 0 28 0 29 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 5 6 4 1 1 0 23 0 25 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 2 3 1 2 1 18 0 19 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 9 6 6 5 2 2 0 40 -2 41 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 0 0 5 0 6 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 6 11 8 7 8 4 7 3 54 -2 57 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -4 1 7 8 6 7 1 0 0 0 20 -11 31 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 24 35 29 4 1 1 0 0 96 0 95 **New York, NY Philadelphia, PA**  0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 8 17 19 20 13 6 1 2 86 -4 89 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 10 -2 11 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 9 10 7 5 5 2 1 49 0 49 **Change in risk**

**Change in risk**

**Change in risk Change in risk** 

NA

# 15

Figure 7B-3. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mo rtality (2009) (heat map tables – absolute ozone-attributable incidence) (Smith et al., 2009)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Recent conditions**

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total** 

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 1 3 6 16 13 20 36 32 26 23 18 8 1 0 204 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 1 1 6 12 20 20 20 29 40 33 15 7 5 0 210 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 6 19 21 32 29 31 25 6 2 3 5 2 182 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 4 8 17 20 31 50 33 35 24 7 15 2 0 246 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 7 11 13 13 6 1 1 0 56 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 1 7 5 21 36 53 89 116 30 40 36 0 17 5 456 **Houston, TX** 0 1 7 18 34 68 80 85 60 55 53 41 21 14 6 7 549 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 1 4 12 23 40 68 51 63 109 98 75 67 41 12 10 672 **New York, NY** 0 0 5 93 165 248 322 373 466 367 370 240 153 116 25 0 2,944 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 4 10 22 56 88 67 116 110 114 124 68 30 7 0 817 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 2 3 7 12 17 15 22 21 19 13 10 15 9 3 166 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 1 5 4 15 21 47 38 55 60 39 17 9 0 0 311



### Current Standard (75)

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 1 2 7 13 15 28 41 37 24 25 8 1 0 0 201 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 2 7 21 36 33 47 33 23 6 0 0 0 207 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 7 14 26 33 29 31 27 4 2 3 5 2 183 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 3 16 28 42 46 50 35 17 7 4 0 0 249 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 12 15 13 4 1 0 0 56 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 1 7 5 21 36 53 89 116 30 40 36 0 17 5 456 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 5 24 43 105 107 96 77 72 31 23 6 3 3 595 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 168 196 297 91 5 0 0 0 770 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 7 41 246 489 407 724 538 314 201 64 0 0 0 3,031 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 0 2 12 38 118 93 162 130 151 67 50 0 0 0 822 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 1 10 28 30 32 24 18 14 3 0 0 0 162 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 1 5 5 14 22 44 42 63 53 43 11 7 0 0 310



### Alternative Standard 70

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 1 8 14 18 38 48 27 24 16 1 0 0 0 194 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 2 7 20 40 42 46 37 10 0 0 0 0 203 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 1 17 23 37 34 33 25 3 0 5 5 0 184 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 1 16 35 47 53 49 31 5 5 0 0 0 242 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 7 11 20 11 2 1 0 0 56 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 0 9 10 33 58 82 137 66 50 7 15 4 0 472 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 2 21 41 104 124 99 97 70 22 10 3 3 0 596 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 24 198 301 185 36 0 0 0 0 745 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 0 42 203 548 609 847 434 256 0 0 0 0 0 2,940 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 0 0 13 33 109 127 152 180 127 62 5 0 0 0 808 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 1 7 34 35 35 21 22 6 0 0 0 0 159 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 3 8 12 28 51 58 58 52 25 8 0 0 0 304



### Alternative Standard 65

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total** 

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 1 7 10 27 44 53 21 23 1 0 0 0 0 187 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 1 6 22 44 56 38 29 2 0 0 0 0 198 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 1 17 27 37 40 33 14 1 5 5 0 0 181 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 1 15 50 51 57 43 10 5 0 0 0 0 231 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 16 21 5 1 0 0 0 55 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 0 8 8 31 68 115 135 52 26 14 4 0 0 461 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 0 10 38 118 142 115 109 41 12 5 3 0 0 592 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 55 241 319 96 5 0 0 0 0 717 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 0 43 540 827 1,080 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,547 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 0 0 11 31 102 171 193 172 85 25 0 0 0 0 791 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 6 36 43 34 19 18 1 0 0 0 0 156 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 1 10 10 33 61 70 52 46 12 0 0 0 0 294



### Alternative Standard 60

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total** 

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 7 12 35 47 47 25 8 0 0 0 0 0 182 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 1 5 27 54 55 37 14 0 0 0 0 0 193 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 1 19 34 37 45 26 5 4 5 0 0 0 176 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 1 17 68 50 58 21 4 0 0 0 0 0 219 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 12 29 5 0 0 0 0 0 51 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 0 4 13 31 95 129 123 36 10 3 0 0 0 444 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 0 4 32 117 177 155 79 17 2 0 0 0 0 583 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 199 216 242 11 0 0 0 0 0 673 **New York, NY Philadelphia, PA**  0 0 0 0 5 23 109 214 220 142 61 0 0 0 0 0 773 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 4 38 52 31 25 2 0 0 0 0 0 153 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 0 10 11 47 76 64 58 16 0 0 0 0 0 281 NA

# 16

Figure 7B-4. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mo rtality (2009) (heat map tables – change in absolute ozone-attributable incidence) (Smith et al ., 2009) Note: negative values are risk increases, positive
values are risk reductions

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Decrease recent conditinos to 75**

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total** 

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Inc. Dec.**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 -1 6 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 2 3 3 2 1 1 0 3 -9 13 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 -3 -10 7 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 **Houston, TX** 0 -1 -4 -7 -9 -12 -10 -8 -3 -1 1 2 1 1 1 1 -47 -55 7 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 -2 -9 -15 -19 -23 -26 -13 -10 -8 1 5 7 7 2 3 -99 -126 26 **New York, NY** 0 0 -3 -34 -47 -42 -27 -18 -4 10 23 20 16 13 3 0 -89 -198 109 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 -2 -4 -6 -9 -7 -4 1 3 5 9 5 3 1 0 -4 -36 32 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 5 -7 15 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2



## Decrease 75 to 70

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75 Inc. Dec.**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 7 0 9 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 4 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 2 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 7 0 7 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 1 2 0 1 0 -17 -22 5 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -9 6 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 12 4 0 0 0 0 25 0 25 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 -1 -4 -16 -9 9 26 36 26 21 7 0 0 0 96 -44 139 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 3 4 6 3 3 0 0 0 14 -6 21 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 7 -2 9



## Decrease 75 to 65

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Inc. Dec.**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 3 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 13 -2 15 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 9 -1 11 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 3 -4 6 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 3 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 18 -1 21 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -5 -4 -3 -2 3 1 4 4 0 2 1 -5 -21 16 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -5 -1 2 3 5 3 3 1 1 0 3 -15 19 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 14 25 8 0 0 0 0 53 0 53 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 -1 -5 -19 18 60 122 138 93 72 24 0 0 0 500 -48 550 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 8 8 13 7 6 0 0 0 33 -11 44 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 5 -2 7 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 5 5 5 1 1 0 0 17 -4 22



## Decrease 75 to 60

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Inc. Dec.**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 4 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 19 -2 21 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 14 -2 16 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0 1 0 8 -4 11 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 5 8 7 4 2 1 0 0 31 -1 33 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 0 5 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -6 -4 -2 1 8 3 6 6 0 4 1 12 -22 32 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 -2 -6 -6 -6 0 4 7 9 5 5 1 1 1 12 -22 35 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 19 26 37 13 1 0 0 0 98 0 97 **New York, NY Philadelphia, PA**  0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 12 12 19 10 8 0 0 0 51 -14 65 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 9 -2 11 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 3 4 8 8 7 2 1 0 0 30 -6 34 **Change in risk**

**Change in risk**

**Change in risk**

**Change in risk**

NA

# 17

Table 7B-3a. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mo rbidity – Hospital Admissions (2007)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**

**HA (respiratory); Detroit** (Katsouyanni et al., 2009)

200 190 180 170 160 14 10 18 29 (56 - 430) (52 - 410) (49 - 380) (47 - 370) (44 - 340) ( 3.8 - 31) (2.8 - 23) (5.1 - 41) (8.1 - 65)

190 180 170 160 150 13 9.8 18 28 (46 - 430) (43 - 400) (41 - 380) (39 - 360) (36 - 340) ( 3.2 - 31) (2.3 - 22) (4.2 - 40) (6.8 - 65) **HA (respiratory); NYC** (Silverman and Ito, 2010; Lin et al., 2008)

160 140 140 110 14 7.9 34 (120 - 220) (110 - 200) (100 - 190) (84 - 160) (10 - 19 ) (5.9 - 11) (26 - 48)

520 490 460 380 58 33 140 (260 - 860) (240 - 810) (230 - 780) (180 - 660) (27 - 1 10) (15 - 63) (64 - 250)

390 360 340 280 42 23 98 (100 - 760) (93 - 710) (87 - 680) (70 - 570) (10 - 91) ( 5.5 - 53) (24 - 210) **HA (respiratory); LA**

(Linn et al., 2000)

370 480 460 450 440 -110 11 23 36

(-480 - 1,200) (-630 - 1,500) (-610 - 1,500) (-600 - 1 ,500) (-580 - 1,400) (140 - -370) (-15 - 37) (-29 - 74) (-47 - 120) **HA (COPD less asthma); all 12 study areas** (Medina-Ramon, et al., 2006)

64 55 52 50 47 10 3 5 8 (37 - 110) (32 - 93) (30 - 89) (29 - 85) (27 - 80) (6 - 17) (2 - 5) (3 - 9) (5 - 14)

43 40 38 37 35 3 1 3 5 (25 - 73) (23 - 68) (22 - 66) (21 - 63) (20 - 60) (2 - 6 ) (1 - 3) (2 - 5) (3 - 8)

59 58 57 54 52 2 1 3 6 (34 - 100) (33 - 99) (33 - 97) (31 - 93) (30 - 90) (1 - 3) (1 - 2) (2 - 6) (3 - 9)

38 37 36 34 31 1 1 3 6 (22 - 65) (22 - 64) (21 - 62) (20 - 59) (18 - 53) (0 - 1 ) (1 - 2) (2 - 6) (4 - 11)

18 18 18 17 16 0 1 1 2 (11 - 32) (10 - 31) (10 - 30) (10 - 29) (9 - 27) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (1 - 2) (1 - 4)

72 72 69 67 64 0 2 4 7 (41 - 120) (41 - 120) (40 - 120) (39 - 110) (37 - 110) ( 0 - 1) (1 - 4) (3 - 8) (4 - 13)

55 57 56 55 54 -2 1 2 3 (32 - 94) (33 - 97) (33 - 96) (32 - 94) (31 - 92) (-1 - -4) (0 - 1) (1 - 3) (2 - 6)

110 110 110 100 96 2 5 10 15 (65 - 190) (64 - 190) (61 - 180) (58 - 170) (55 - 160) ( 1 - 3) (3 - 9) (6 - 17) (9 - 26)

220 200 190 150 21 13 57 (130 - 380) (120 - 350) (110 - 330) (85 - 250) (12 - 37 ) (7 - 22) (33 - 98)

110 97 93 90 86 9 3 7 11 (61 - 180) (56 - 160) (54 - 160) (52 - 150) (50 - 150) ( 5 - 15) (2 - 6) (4 - 12) (6 - 18)

17 15 14 14 13 2 1 1 2 (10 - 29) (9 - 25) (8 - 25) (8 - 24) (8 - 23) (1 - 3) (0 - 1) (1 - 2) (1 - 3)

46 43 41 38 36 4 2 4 7 (27 - 79) (25 - 73) (24 - 69) (22 - 66) (21 - 62) (2 - 6 ) (1 - 4) (3 - 8) (4 - 12) NA NA

NA NA

**Sacramento, CA**

**St. Louis, MO Detroit, MI** 

**Houston, TX**

**Los Angeles, CA**

**New York, NY**

**Philadelphia, PA Atlanta, GA** 

**Baltimore, MD**

**Boston, MA**

**Cleveland, OH**

**Denver, CO** HA Chronic Lung Disease (Lin)

HA Asthma (Silverman)

HA Asthma, PM2.5 (Silverman)

1hr max penalized splines 1hr max, penalized splines

1hr max, natural splines **Air Quality Scenario**
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence**  **Endpoint/Study Area/Descriptor**
**2007 Simulation Year**

# 18

Table 7B-3b. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mo rbidity – Hospital Admissions (2009)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. For Detroit, 2009 base ai r quality already just meets existing standard. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**

**HA (respiratory); Detroit** (Katsouyanni et al., 2009)

170 170 170 160 150 2.8 10 20 (48 - 380) (48 - 380) (47 - 370) (45 - 350) (42 - 330) ( 0.78 - 6.2) (2.8 - 23) (5.5 - 44)

160 160 160 160 150 2.7 9.8 19 (40 - 370) (40 - 370) (39 - 370) (38 - 350) (35 - 330) ( 0.65 - 6.2) (2.3 - 22) (4.5 - 43) **HA (respiratory); NYC** (Silverman and Ito, 2010; Lin et al., 2008)

140 140 130 110 110 0.053 5.9 25 25 (100 - 190) (100 - 190) (100 - 190) (86 - 160) (86 - 16 0) (0.046 - 0.056) (4.5 - 8.4) (19 - 35) (19 - 35)

480 470 450 390 390 9.4 28 110 110 (240 - 800) (230 - 790) (220 - 770) (190 - 670) (190 - 670) (4.4 - 17) (13 - 54) (51 - 200) (51 - 200)

350 350 330 280 280 6.8 20 79 79 (92 - 700) (90 - 700) (86 - 670) (72 - 580) (72 - 580) ( 1.7 - 14) (4.8 - 45) (19 - 170) (19 - 170) **HA (respiratory); LA**

(Linn et al., 2000)

390 500 490 480 460 -120 11 23 37

(-510 - 1,200) (-660 - 1,600) (-650 - 1,600) (-630 - 1 ,500) (-610 - 1,500) (150 - -390) (-14 - 35) (-30 - 76) (-48 - 120) **HA (COPD less asthma); all 12 study areas** (Medina-Ramon, et al., 2006)

53 52 50 48 46 2 3 4 6 (31 - 91) (30 - 89) (29 - 85) (28 - 82) (27 - 79) (1 - 3 ) (1 - 4) (3 - 8) (4 - 11)

38 37 36 35 34 1 1 2 3 (22 - 65) (21 - 62) (21 - 61) (20 - 59) (19 - 57) (1 - 3 ) (0 - 1) (1 - 3) (2 - 5)

53 53 53 52 51 0 0 1 2 (30 - 90) (31 - 91) (31 - 91) (30 - 89) (30 - 87) (0 - - 1) (0 - 0) (0 - 1) (1 - 4)

36 36 35 33 31 0 1 3 5 (21 - 61) (21 - 61) (20 - 59) (19 - 56) (18 - 53) (0 - 0 ) (1 - 2) (2 - 5) (3 - 9)

18 18 18 17 16 0 0 1 2 (10 - 30) (10 - 30) (10 - 30) (10 - 29) (9 - 27) (0 - 0) (0 - 0) (0 - 1) (1 - 4)

64 64 66 65 63 -3 -1 1 (37 - 110) (37 - 110) (38 - 110) (38 - 110) (36 - 110) ( -2 - -4) (-1 - -2) (1 - 2)

60 63 63 62 60 -3 0 1 3 (35 - 100) (37 - 110) (36 - 110) (36 - 110) (35 - 100) ( -2 - -5) (0 - 1) (1 - 2) (2 - 6)

120 120 110 110 100 3 5 10 16 (69 - 200) (68 - 200) (65 - 190) (62 - 180) (59 - 170) ( 2 - 5) (3 - 8) (6 - 17) (9 - 27)

190 190 190 160 -1 8 40 (110 - 330) (110 - 330) (110 - 320) (90 - 270) (0 - -1) (5 - 14) (23 - 69)

90 88 87 84 82 1 2 4 6 (52 - 150) (51 - 150) (50 - 150) (49 - 140) (48 - 140) ( 1 - 2) (1 - 3) (2 - 7) (4 - 11)

18 16 15 15 14 2 1 1 2 (10 - 31) (9 - 27) (9 - 26) (9 - 25) (8 - 24) (1 - 4) (0 - 1) (1 - 2) (1 - 3)

41 41 39 38 36 0 2 3 5 (24 - 70) (24 - 69) (23 - 67) (22 - 64) (21 - 61) (0 - 1 ) (1 - 3) (2 - 5) (3 - 9) NA NA

NA 1hr max penalized splines

**Atlanta, GA**

**Baltimore, MD**

**Boston, MA**

**Cleveland, OH**

**Denver, CO**

**Detroit, MI**

**Houston, TX**

**Los Angeles, CA**

**New York, NY**

**Philadelphia, PA**

**Sacramento, CA**

**St. Louis, MO** NA

HA Chronic Lung Disease (Lin)

HA Asthma (Silverman)

HA Asthma, PM2.5 (Silverman) 1hr max, penalized splines

1hr max, natural splines **2009 Simulation Year Endpoint/Study Area/Descriptor**  **Air Quality Scenario**
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence** 

# 19

Table 7B-4a. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mo rbidity – Emergency Room Visits (2007)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**

**ER Visits (repiratory); Atlanta** (Strickland et al., 2007) 7,400 6,600 6,300 6,000 5,700 1,100 350 650 1,000 (5,300 - 9,400) (4,700 - 8,300) (4,500 - 8,000) (4,300 - 7,700) (4,100 - 7,300) (790 - 1,500) (240 - 460) (45 0 - 850) (710 - 1,300) 4,400 3,900 3,700 3,600 3,400 650 200 370 580 (2,400 - 6,300) (2,100 - 5,500) (2,000 - 5,300) (1,900 - 5,100) (1,800 - 4,800) (350 - 950) (110 - 290) (200 - 540) (310 - 850) **ER-visits (respiratory); Atlanta** (Tolbert et al., 2007, Darrow et al., 2011) 8,000 7,000 6,700 6,500 6,200 1,000 310 580 920 (5,500 - 10,000) (4,900 - 9,200) (4,700 - 8,800) (4,50 0 - 8,500) (4,300 - 8,000) (680 - 1,300) (220 - 410) (4 00 - 760) (630 - 1,200) 7,100 6,300 6,000 5,800 5,500 880 280 510 810 (4,400 - 9,800) (3,800 - 8,600) (3,700 - 8,300) (3,500 - 8,000) (3,400 - 7,600) (540 - 1,200) (170 - 390) (31 0 - 710) (490 - 1,100) 6,400 5,700 5,400 5,200 5,000 800 250 460 730 (3,400 - 9,400) (3,000 - 8,300) (2,900 - 7,900) (2,800 - 7,600) (2,600 - 7,300) (420 - 1,200) (130 - 370) (24 0 - 680) (380 - 1,100) 5,000 4,400 4,300 4,100 3,900 620 200 360 570 (1,800 - 8,200) (1,600 - 7,300) (1,500 - 7,000) (1,400 - 6,700) (1,400 - 6,400) (220 - 1,000) (68 - 320) (130 - 600) (200 - 940) 4,900 4,300 4,100 4,000 3,800 600 190 350 550 (1,600 - 8,000) (1,400 - 7,100) (1,300 - 6,800) (1,300 - 6,600) (1,200 - 6,200) (200 - 1,000) (61 - 320) (110 - 580) (180 - 920) 4,300 3,800 3,600 3,500 3,300 530 170 310 490 (2,600 - 6,000) (2,300 - 5,300) (2,200 - 5,100) (2,100 - 4,900) (2,000 - 4,600) (320 - 740) (100 - 230) (190 - 430) (300 - 680) **ER-visits (asthma); NYC** (Ito et al, 2007) 11,000 11,000 10,000 8,200 920 620 2,700 (9,200 - 14,000) (8,600 - 14,000) (8,200 - 13,000) (6, 700 - 11,000) (740 - 1,200) (500 - 830) (2,200 - 3,600 ) 8,800 8,300 7,900 6,400 710 480 2,100 (6,500 - 12,000) (6,100 - 12,000) (5,800 - 11,000) (4, 700 - 9,200) (510 - 1,000) (340 - 700) (1,500 - 3,100) 7,300 6,800 6,500 5,300 580 390 1,700 (5,000 - 11,000) (4,700 - 10,000) (4,400 - 9,800) (3,6 00 - 8,000) (390 - 890) (260 - 610) (1,200 - 2,700) 12,000 11,000 11,000 8,700 970 660 2,900 (9,900 - 15,000) (9,300 - 14,000) (8,800 - 13,000) (7, 200 - 11,000) (800 - 1,300) (540 - 870) (2,400 - 3,800 ) 9,100 8,500 8,100 6,600 730 490 2,200 (6,900 - 13,000) (6,500 - 12,000) (6,100 - 11,000) (5, 000 - 9,200) (550 - 1,000) (370 - 710) (1,600 - 3,100) SO2 NA NA Distributed lag 0-7 days

Average day lag 0-2

Tolbert

Tolbert-CO

Tolbert-NO2

Tolbert-PM10

Tolbert-PM10, NO2

Darrow

single pollutant model

PM2.5

NO2

CO **Endpoint/Study Area/Descriptor Air Quality Scenario** 
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence** 

**2007 Simulation Year**

# 20

Table 7B-4b. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mo rbidity – Emergency Room Visits (2009)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**

**ER Visits (repiratory); Atlanta** (Strickland et al., 2007) 6,100 5,900 5,700 5,500 5,400 150 270 490 700 (4,300 - 7,700) (4,200 - 7,600) (4,100 - 7,300) (3,900 - 7,100) (3,800 - 6,900) (100 - 200) (190 - 350) (340 - 640) (480 - 910) 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,100 86 150 280 400 (2,000 - 5,100) (1,900 - 5,000) (1,800 - 4,800) (1,800 - 4,700) (1,700 - 4,500) (46 - 130) (81 - 220) (150 - 410) (210 - 580) **ER-visits (respiratory); Atlanta** (Tolbert et al., 2007, Darrow et al., 2011) 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,900 120 230 440 620 (4,500 - 8,500) (4,500 - 8,400) (4,300 - 8,100) (4,200 - 7,900) (4,000 - 7,600) (84 - 160) (160 - 300) (300 - 570) (430 - 820) 5,800 5,700 5,500 5,400 5,200 110 200 390 550 (3,600 - 8,000) (3,500 - 7,900) (3,400 - 7,600) (3,300 - 7,400) (3,200 - 7,200) (66 - 150) (120 - 290) (240 - 540) (340 - 770) 5,300 5,200 5,000 4,900 4,700 97 180 350 500 (2,800 - 7,700) (2,700 - 7,600) (2,600 - 7,300) (2,600 - 7,100) (2,500 - 6,900) (51 - 140) (97 - 270) (180 - 520) (260 - 740) 4,100 4,100 3,900 3,800 3,700 76 140 270 390 (1,500 - 6,800) (1,400 - 6,600) (1,400 - 6,400) (1,300 - 6,200) (1,300 - 6,000) (27 - 130) (50 - 240) (95 - 4 50) (140 - 640) 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,600 73 140 260 380 (1,300 - 6,600) (1,300 - 6,500) (1,200 - 6,300) (1,200 - 6,100) (1,200 - 5,900) (24 - 120) (45 - 230) (86 - 4 40) (120 - 630) 3,500 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 65 120 230 330 (2,200 - 4,900) (2,100 - 4,800) (2,000 - 4,700) (2,000 - 4,500) (1,900 - 4,400) (39 - 91) (74 - 170) (140 - 3 20) (200 - 470) **ER-visits (asthma); NYC** (Ito et al, 2007) 10,000 10,000 9,900 8,500 -84 470 2,100 (8,300 - 13,000) (8,400 - 13,000) (8,100 - 13,000) (7, 000 - 11,000) (-65 - -120) (380 - 630) (1,700 - 2,800) 8,000 8,100 7,800 6,700 -62 360 1,600 (5,900 - 11,000) (5,900 - 11,000) (5,700 - 11,000) (4, 900 - 9,600) (-43 - -97) (260 - 530) (1,200 - 2,300) 6,600 6,700 6,400 5,500 -49 290 1,300 (4,500 - 9,900) (4,500 - 10,000) (4,400 - 9,700) (3,70 0 - 8,300) (-32 - -81) (200 - 460) (880 - 2,000) 11,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 -90 500 2,200 (9,000 - 14,000) (9,000 - 14,000) (8,700 - 13,000) (7, 500 - 12,000) (-71 - -130) (410 - 660) (1,800 - 2,900) 8,200 8,300 8,000 6,900 -64 370 1,700 (6,300 - 11,000) (6,300 - 12,000) (6,100 - 11,000) (5, 200 - 9,600) (-46 - -98) (280 - 530) (1,200 - 2,400) NA NA single pollutant model

PM2.5

NO2

CO

SO2 Tolbert

Tolbert-CO

Tolbert-NO2

Tolbert-PM10

Tolbert-PM10, NO2

Darrow Distributed lag 0-7 days

Average day lag 0-2 **Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence**

**2009 Simulation Year Endpoint/Study Area/Descriptor**  **Air Quality Scenario**
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence**

# 21

Table 7B-5a. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mo rbidity – Asthma Exacerbations (2007)

a-previous day, b-same day



# Table 7B-5b. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mo rbidity – Asthma Exacerbations (2009)

a-previous day, b-same day **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**

**Asthma exacerbation (wheeze); Boston** (Gent et al., 2003, 2004) 41,000 40,000 40,000 38,000 37,000 1,500 1,200 3,300 5,100 (22,000 - 57,000) (21,000 - 56,000) (21,000 - 55,000) (20,000 - 53,000) (19,000 - 52,000) (720 - 2,200) (600 - 1,800) (1,600 - 4,900) (2,500 - 7,500) 30,000 30,000 29,000 28,000 28,000 530 680 1,900 3,000 (10,000 - 47,000) (9,900 - 47,000) (9,800 - 46,000) (9 ,400 - 45,000) (9,100 - 43,000) (170 - 870) (210 - 1,1 00) (580 - 3,100) (920 - 4,900) 42,000 41,000 40,000 39,000 37,000 1,500 1,200 3,300 5,100 (20,000 - 59,000) (19,000 - 58,000) (19,000 - 57,000) (18,000 - 56,000) (17,000 - 54,000) (640 - 2,300) (530 - 1,900) (1,400 - 5,100) (2,200 - 7,900) 39,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 34,000 1,400 1,100 3,000 4,700 (16,000 - 57,000) (15,000 - 56,000) (15,000 - 55,000) (14,000 - 53,000) (14,000 - 52,000) (500 - 2,200) (420 - 1,800) (1,100 - 4,900) (1,800 - 7,500) 29,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 970 800 2,200 3,400 (3,700 - 51,000) (3,600 - 50,000) (3,500 - 49,000) (3, 400 - 47,000) (3,200 - 45,000) (110 - 1,800) (93 - 1,5 00) (250 - 4,000) (400 - 6,200) 35,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 610 780 2,100 3,400 (7,200 - 58,000) (7,000 - 57,000) (6,900 - 56,000) (6, 700 - 55,000) (6,400 - 53,000) (120 - 1,100) (150 - 1, 400) (400 - 3,800) (640 - 6,000) 78,000 76,000 75,000 72,000 69,000 2,700 2,200 6,000 9,300 (29,000 - 120,000) (28,000 - 120,000) (28,000 - 110,000) (26,000 - 110,000) (25,000 - 110,000) (930 - 4,400) (760 - 3,700) (2,100 - 9,800) (3,200 - 1 5,000) a-privous day, b-same day Chest Tightness (1hr max)

Chest Tightness (8hr max)

Chest Tightness (1hr max, PM2.5) a 

### Endpoint/Study Area/Descriptor **Air Quality Scenario**
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence** 

**2007 Simulation Year**

Chest Tightness (1hr max, PM2.5) b



### Shortness of Breath (1hr max)

Shortness of Breath (8hr max)

Wheeze (PM2.5)



### Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

**Asthma exacerbation (wheeze); Boston** (Gent et al., 2003, 2004) 38,000 38,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 -92 290 1,400 2,800 (20,000 - 53,000) (20,000 - 53,000) (20,000 - 53,000) (19,000 - 52,000) (19,000 - 50,000) (-44 - -140) (140 - 430) (690 - 2,100) (1,400 - 4,200) 28,000 28,000 28,000 27,000 27,000 -220 -110 470 1,300 (9,100 - 43,000) (9,200 - 44,000) (9,200 - 44,000) (9, 100 - 43,000) (8,800 - 42,000) (-66 - -370) (-32 - -19 0) (150 - 780) (410 - 2,200) 38,000 38,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 -93 300 1,400 2,900 (18,000 - 55,000) (18,000 - 55,000) (18,000 - 55,000) (17,000 - 54,000) (17,000 - 52,000) (-39 - -150) (130 - 460) (610 - 2,200) (1,200 - 4,400) 35,000 35,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 -84 270 1,300 2,600 (14,000 - 52,000) (14,000 - 53,000) (14,000 - 52,000) (14,000 - 51,000) (13,000 - 50,000) (-30 - -140) (100 - 430) (480 - 2,100) (980 - 4,200) 26,000 27,000 26,000 26,000 25,000 -59 190 930 1,900 (3,300 - 46,000) (3,300 - 46,000) (3,300 - 46,000) (3, 200 - 45,000) (3,100 - 44,000) (-6.8 - -110) (23 - 360 ) (110 - 1,700) (220 - 3,500) 32,000 32,000 32,000 32,000 31,000 -250 -120 540 1,500 (6,500 - 53,000) (6,500 - 54,000) (6,500 - 54,000) (6, 400 - 53,000) (6,200 - 52,000) (-46 - -450) (-22 - -23 0) (100 - 960) (280 - 2,600) 71,000 71,000 71,000 69,000 67,000 -170 530 2,600 5,200 (26,000 - 110,000) (26,000 - 110,000) (26,000 - 110,000) (25,000 - 110,000) (25,000 - 100,000) (-56 - -280) (190 - 870) (880 - 4,200) (1,800 - 8,500) a-privous day, b-same day **Endpoint/Study Area/Descriptor**

Chest Tightness (1hr max)

Chest Tightness (8hr max)

Chest Tightness (1hr max, PM2.5) a



### Chest Tightness (1hr max, PM2.5) b



### Shortness of Breath (1hr max)

Shortness of Breath (8hr max)

Wheeze (PM2.5) **2009 Simulation Year Air Quality Scenario** 
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence** 

# 22

Table 7B-6. Core Long-Term Ozone-Attributable Resp iratory Mortality (2007) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,000) (Jerr ett et al., 2009)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**

690 590 560 530 500 120 35 64 100 (250 - 1100) (210 - 920) (200 - 870) (190 - 840) (180 - 790) (42 - 200) (12 - 59) (22 - 110) (34 - 160)

420 390 380 360 340 41 17 35 57 (150 - 650) (140 - 610) (140 - 590) (130 - 560) (120 - 540) (14 - 67) (6 - 29) (12 - 57) (19 - 93)

660 640 620 590 570 24 20 53 82 (240 - 1000) (230 - 1000) (220 - 980) (210 - 930) (200 - 900) (8 - 39) (7 - 33) (18 - 88) (28 - 140)

340 330 310 300 270 13 16 35 64 (120 - 530) (120 - 510) (110 - 490) (110 - 470) (97 - 4 30) (4 - 21) (6 - 27) (12 - 58) (22 - 100)

340 330 320 300 290 16 13 26 43 (120 - 520) (120 - 500) (110 - 490) (110 - 470) (100 - 450) (5 - 26) (4 - 21) (9 - 44) (15 - 71)

620 600 580 560 540 24 28 50 78 (220 - 960) (220 - 940) (210 - 900) (200 - 880) (190 - 840) (8 - 40) (10 - 46) (17 - 82) (27 - 130)

470 460 450 450 440 18 8.0 16 27 (170 - 740) (160 - 720) (160 - 710) (160 - 700) (160 - 690) (6 - 30) (3 - 13) (5 - 26) (9 - 44) 1,600 1,500 1,500 1,400 1,300 57 82 160 240 (580 - 2500) (560 - 2400) (540 - 2300) (510 - 2200) (49 0 - 2100) (19 - 95) (28 - 140) (54 - 260) (83 - 400) 2,400 2,100 2,000 1,600 320 140 550 (860 - 3700) (750 - 3300) (710 - 3100) (570 - 2600) (11 0 - 530) (47 - 230) (190 - 900) 1,000 930 890 850 820 120 42 87 130 (370 - 1600) (330 - 1400) (320 - 1400) (310 - 1300) (29 0 - 1300) (42 - 200) (14 - 69) (30 - 140) (44 - 210)

350 300 290 280 260 56 14 26 44 (130 - 530) (110 - 470) (100 - 450) (100 - 440) (94 - 4 10) (19 - 92) (5 - 22) (9 - 43) (15 - 73)

520 480 460 430 410 48 27 56 84 (190 - 800) (170 - 750) (170 - 710) (160 - 680) (150 - 640) (16 - 80) (190 - 800) (19 - 92) (29 - 140)

**Base 75ppb**  **70ppb 65ppb**  **60ppb Base-75**  **75-70 75-65**  **75-60 Atlanta, GA**  21.7 18.6 17.7 16.9 16.0 14 5 9 15 **Baltimore, MD** 20.3 18.8 18.1 17.4 16.5 8 4 8 12 **Boston, MA** 17.7 17.2 16.7 16.0 15.3 3 3 7 11 **Cleveland, OH** 18.2 17.7 16.9 16.1 14.8 3 4 9 17 **Denver, CO** 21.6 20.8 20.1 19.4 18.6 4 3 7 11 **Detroit, MI** 19.0 18.4 17.7 17.2 16.4 3 4 7 11 **Houston, TX** 16.9 16.3 16.1 15.9 15.5 3 1 3 5 **Los Angeles, CA** 21.0 20.4 19.6 18.8 17.8 3 4 9 13 **New York, NY** 19.0 16.9 15.9 13.1 NA 11 6 24 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 20.4 18.4 17.7 17.0 16.3 10 4 8 12 **Sacramento, CA** 20.5 17.8 17.1 16.5 15.6 13 4 7 13 **St. Louis, MO** 20.3 18.8 17.9 17.0 16.0 7 5 10 15

**Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60 Atlanta, GA**  24 21 20 19 18 4.4 1.3 2.3 3.5 **Baltimore, MD** 27 25 24 23 22 2.6 1.1 2.2 3.6 **Boston, MA** 24 24 23 22 21 0.88 0.74 2.0 3.1 **Cleveland, OH** 26 25 24 23 21 1.00 1.2 2.7 4.9 **Denver, CO** 24 23 23 22 21 1.1 0.91 1.9 3.1 **Detroit, MI** 24 23 22 21 20 0.91 1.1 1.9 3.0 **Houston, TX** 16 15 15 15 15 0.61 0.27 0.52 0.89 **Los Angeles, CA** 23 22 21 20 19 0.81 1.2 2.2 3.4 **New York, NY** 21 19 18 15 NA 2.9 1.3 4.9 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 29 27 26 24 23 3.5 1.2 2.5 3.7 **Sacramento, CA** 29 25 24 23 22 4.7 1.1 2.2 3.7 **St. Louis, MO** 32 29 28 26 25 2.9 1.6 3.4 5.1 NA

**Study Area Air Quality Scenario**  **Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000**  **Cleveland, OH Atlanta, GA** 

**Baltimore, MD**

**Boston, MA Study Area** 

**Sacramento, CA**

**St. Louis, MO Denver, CO** 

**Detroit, MI**

**Houston, TX**

**Los Angeles, CA**

**New York, NY**

**Philadelphia, PA**

**Air Quality Scenario Percent of Baseline Incidence Change in O**  **3** 

## -Attributable Risk **Study Area** NA **Air Quality Scenario**
**Absolute Incidence Change in Incidence** 

# 23

Table 7B-7. Core Long-Term Ozone-Attributable Resp iratory Mortality (2009) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,000) (Jerr ett et al., 2009)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. For Detroit, 2009 base a ir quality already just meets existing standard. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**

570 550 520 500 480 26 32 59 82 (210 - 890) (200 - 860) (190 - 820) (180 - 790) (170 - 760) (9 - 43) (11 - 53) (20 - 98) (28 - 140)

380 360 350 340 320 25 12 27 41 (140 - 590) (130 - 560) (120 - 540) (120 - 530) (120 - 510) (8 - 41) (4 - 20) (9 - 44) (14 - 68)

580 580 580 560 540 -1.1 3.7 23 47 (210 - 910) (210 - 920) (210 - 910) (200 - 890) (190 - 860) (0 - -2) (1 - 6) (8 - 38) (16 - 77)

310 300 290 280 260 9.4 14 32 50 (110 - 490) (110 - 470) (100 - 460) (98 - 430) (92 - 41 0) (3 - 16) (5 - 24) (11 - 53) (17 - 82)

320 320 310 300 280 0.49 5.8 18 45 (120 - 490) (120 - 490) (110 - 490) (110 - 470) (100 - 440) (0 - 1) (2 - 10) (6 - 30) (16 - 75)

540 540 550 530 510 -6.7 14 38 (190 - 850) (190 - 850) (200 - 850) (190 - 830) (180 - 800) (-2 - -11) (5 - 23) (13 - 64)

490 490 480 470 460 -3.9 11 24 40 (170 - 760) (180 - 770) (170 - 750) (170 - 740) (160 - 720) (-1 - -7) (4 - 18) (8 - 40) (14 - 66) 1,600 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,400 63 77 160 250 (590 - 2500) (570 - 2400) (550 - 2300) (520 - 2200) (50 0 - 2100) (21 - 100) (26 - 130) (54 - 260) (84 - 400) 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,700 61 120 420 (750 - 3300) (730 - 3200) (690 - 3000) (590 - 2700) (21 - 100) (40 - 200) (140 - 690)

880 850 820 790 770 40 31 66 97 (320 - 1400) (310 - 1300) (300 - 1300) (280 - 1200) (27 0 - 1200) (13 - 66) (11 - 52) (23 - 110) (33 - 160)

360 310 300 280 270 61 14 28 44 (130 - 550) (110 - 480) (110 - 460) (100 - 450) (96 - 4 20) (21 - 100) (5 - 24) (9 - 46) (15 - 73)

450 440 430 410 390 5.6 19 41 66 (160 - 700) (160 - 690) (150 - 670) (150 - 650) (140 - 610) (2 - 9) (160 - 700) (14 - 67) (23 - 110)

**Base 75ppb**  **70ppb 65ppb**  **60ppb Base-75**  **75-70 75-65**  **75-60 Atlanta, GA**  17.6 17.0 16.2 15.4 14.8 4 5 9 13 **Baltimore, MD** 18.4 17.4 16.9 16.3 15.7 5 3 6 10 **Boston, MA** 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.4 14.9 -0.2 1 3 7 **Cleveland, OH** 17.2 16.8 16.1 15.3 14.5 2 4 9 15 **Denver, CO** 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.1 17.7 0.1 1 5 12 **Detroit, MI** 17.0 17.0 17.2 16.6 16.0 NA -1 2 6 **Houston, TX** 16.8 16.9 16.6 16.3 15.8 -1 2 4 7 **Los Angeles, CA** 21.4 20.7 19.9 19.1 18.1 3 4 8 13 **New York, NY** 17.1 16.7 15.9 13.8 NA 2 5 18 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 17.9 17.2 16.7 16.1 15.5 4 3 7 10 **Sacramento, CA** 20.9 18.0 17.3 16.7 15.8 14 4 8 12 **St. Louis, MO** 17.9 17.7 17.1 16.4 15.5 1 4 8 13

**Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60 Atlanta, GA**  19 19 18 17 16 0.88 1.1 2.0 2.8 **Baltimore, MD** 23 22 22 21 20 1.5 0.75 1.7 2.6 **Boston, MA** 21 21 21 21 20 -0.041 0.13 0.82 1.7 **Cleveland, OH** 24 23 22 21 20 0.73 1.1 2.5 3.8 **Denver, CO** 22 22 22 21 19 0.034 0.40 1.3 3.1 **Detroit, MI** 21 21 21 20 19 NA -0.25 0.52 1.5 **Houston, TX** 15 15 15 15 14 -0.12 0.35 0.76 1.3 **Los Angeles, CA** 22 22 21 20 19 0.87 1.1 2.2 3.4 **New York, NY** 18 18 17 15 NA 0.54 1.0 3.7 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 25 24 23 22 22 1.1 0.88 1.9 2.7 **Sacramento, CA** 29 25 24 23 22 5.0 1.2 2.3 3.6 **St. Louis, MO** 27 27 26 25 23 0.34 1.1 2.4 3.9 **Atlanta, GA**

**Baltimore, MD**

**Boston, MA Study Area** 

**Study Area**

**Study Area Air Quality Scenario**  **Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Cleveland, OH** 

**Sacramento, CA**

**St. Louis, MO Denver, CO** 

**Detroit, MI**

**Houston, TX**

**Los Angeles, CA**

**New York, NY**

**Philadelphia, PA**

**Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000** NA NA NA

**Air Quality Scenario Percent of Baseline Incidence Change in O**  **3** 

## -Attributable Risk **Air Quality Scenario**
**Absolute Incidence Change in Incidence** 

# 24 

# Appendix 7C – Detailed Sensitivity Analysis Results

Table 7C-1. Sensitivity Analysis – ST Mortality: Smaller Smith et al., 2009-based stud y area (2009) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidenc e per 100,000) - compare with Core Results in Table 7B-2

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**

64 64 64 62 61 -1 1 2 4 (-25 - 210) (-26 - 210) (-25 - 210) (-25 - 210) (-24 - 200) (0 - -2) (0 - 3) (-1 - 8) (-2 - 13)

55 58 58 57 56 -3 0 1 2 (5 - 140) (6 - 150) (6 - 140) (5 - 140) (5 - 140) (0 - - 8) (0 - 1) (0 - 3) (0 - 6)

24 25 26 26 26 -1 -1 -1 -1 (-10 - 82) (-10 - 84) (-11 - 87) (-11 - 87) (-10 - 86) ( 0 - -2) (0 - -4) (0 - -3) (0 - -2)

170 180 170 170 160 -8 4 10 18 (61 - 350) (64 - 360) (63 - 360) (60 - 340) (57 - 330) ( -3 - -17) (1 - 8) (4 - 21) (7 - 38)

41 42 42 42 40 0 -1 0 2 (-61 - 210) (-62 - 210) (-63 - 220) (-62 - 210) (-59 - 200) (1 - -3) (1 - -3) (0 - 0) (-3 - 11)

220 220 230 220 220 -11 -7 0 (97 - 420) (97 - 420) (100 - 440) (100 - 430) (97 - 420 ) (-5 - -22) (-3 - -14) (0 - 0)

350 380 380 380 380 -36 -2 -1 3 (180 - 620) (200 - 690) (200 - 690) (200 - 690) (200 - 680) (-19 - -66) (-1 - -3) (0 - -2) (2 - 6)

520 600 580 560 520 -83 21 44 81 (89 - 1200) (100 - 1400) (99 - 1400) (95 - 1300) (89 - 1200) (-14 - -200) (4 - 50) (8 - 110) (14 - 190)

1200 1400 1400 1200 -170 5 140 (930 - 1700) (1100 - 1900) (1100 - 1900) (950 - 1700) ( -130 - -240) (4 - 6) (110 - 200)

210 220 220 220 220 -15 1 3 5 (110 - 370) (120 - 390) (120 - 390) (120 - 390) (120 - 380) (-8 - -27) (0 - 1) (1 - 5) (3 - 9)

110 110 110 110 110 1 2 4 7 (-23 - 340) (-23 - 340) (-23 - 340) (-22 - 330) (-22 - 320) (0 - 2) (0 - 6) (-1 - 11) (-1 - 20)

36 37 39 39 39 -1 -2 -3 -2 (10 - 80) (10 - 81) (11 - 86) (11 - 87) (11 - 86) (0 - - 2) (-1 - -5) (-1 - -6) (-1 - -5)

**Base 75ppb**  **70ppb 65ppb**  **60ppb Base-75**  **75-70 75-65**  **75-60 Atlanta, GA**  1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 1 4 6 **Baltimore, MD** 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 -6 1 2 4 **Boston, MA** 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 -2 -4 -4 -2 **Cleveland, OH** 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 -5 2 5 10 **Denver, CO** 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 -1 -1 -0.2 5 **Detroit, MI** 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 NA -5 -3 0.03 **Houston, TX** 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 -10 -1 -0.3 1 **Los Angeles, CA** 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 -16 3 7 13 **New York, NY** 3.7 4.2 4.1 3.8 NA -14 0.3 10 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 -7 0.2 1 2 **Sacramento, CA** 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1 2 3 6 **St. Louis, MO** 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 -2 -6 -7 -6

**Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60 Atlanta, GA**  4.0 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 -0.041 0.050 0.15 0.25 **Baltimore, MD** 8.8 9.3 9.3 9.1 9.0 -0.52 0.073 0.21 0.38 **Boston, MA** 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 -0.084 -0.16 -0.14 -0.087 **Cleveland, OH** 13 14 13 13 12 -0.63 0.28 0.77 1.4 **Denver, CO** 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 -0.030 -0.036 -0.0040 0.13 **Detroit, MI** 12 12 12 12 12 NA -0.62 -0.38 0.011 **Houston, TX** 8.6 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.4 -0.91 -0.047 -0.022 0.081 **Los Angeles, CA** 5.3 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.3 -0.85 0.21 0.45 0.83 **New York, NY** 13 15 15 14 NA -1.9 0.050 1.5 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 14 15 15 15 14 -1.0 0.039 0.18 0.34 **Sacramento, CA** 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.6 0.060 0.13 0.26 0.46 **St. Louis, MO** 11 12 12 12 12 -0.27 -0.66 -0.82 -0.69 NA

NA NA

**Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000**  **Air Quality Scenario**

**Study Area Los Angeles, CA** 

**New York, NY**

**Sacramento, CA**

**St. Louis, MO Study Area**  **Air Quality Scenario**
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence** 

**Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 

**Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O**  **3** 

## -Attributable Risk **Philadelphia, PA Atlanta, GA** 

**Baltimore, MD**

**Boston, MA**

**Cleveland, OH**

**Denver, CO**

**Detroit, MI**

**Houston, TX**

# 25

Table 7C-1. Sensitivity Analysis – ST Mortality: Smaller Smith et al., 2009-based stud y area (2009) (heat maps for just meeting existing standard and r isk reductions from just meeting alternative standards) (see Key at bottom of figure)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb.



# Key : For current standard (75) which is an absolute risk metric, color gradient ra nges from blue (smallest ozone-related mortality count) to red (highest ozone-related mort ality count). For Decrease results , color gradient ranges from red (increase in risk – negative cell values) to blue ( reduction in risk – positive cell values). **Current Standard (75)**

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 8 12 11 7 8 2 0 0 0 61 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 11 10 14 10 7 2 0 0 0 63 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 5 4 4 4 1 0 0 1 0 25 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 2 11 20 30 33 35 25 12 5 3 0 0 176 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 9 11 10 3 1 0 0 42 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 3 3 10 18 26 43 56 15 19 18 0 8 2 221 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 3 15 28 66 68 61 49 46 19 15 4 2 2 378 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 129 151 228 70 4 0 0 0 590 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 3 18 106 211 175 312 232 135 86 28 0 0 0 1,305 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 0 1 3 11 33 26 46 37 43 19 14 0 0 0 234 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 1 7 19 21 22 17 13 10 2 0 0 0 112 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 5 5 8 7 5 1 1 0 0 38



## Decrease 75 to 70

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Inc. Dec.**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 6 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 1 1 0 1 0 -8 -11 3 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 -5 5 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 9 3 0 0 0 0 19 0 19 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 0 -2 -7 -4 4 11 15 11 9 3 0 0 0 41 -19 59 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 4 -2 6 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0



## Decrease 75 to 65

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75**  **Inc. Dec.**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 4 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 13 -1 14 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 1 2 2 0 1 0 -2 -9 9 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 1 2 3 2 2 0 0 0 2 -10 10 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 10 19 6 0 0 0 0 41 0 39 **New York, NY** 0 0 0 -1 -2 -8 8 26 53 59 40 31 10 0 0 0 215 -21 236 **Philadelphia, PA** 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 2 4 2 2 0 0 0 9 -3 12 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 -1 5 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 3



## Decrease 75 to 60

**Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb)**  **Total**

**0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-5 0 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75 Inc. Dec.**  **Atlanta, GA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 6 0 7 **Baltimore, MD** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 5 **Boston, MA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 6 5 3 1 1 0 0 22 -1 24 **Denver, CO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 4 0 4 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 1 4 2 3 3 0 2 1 6 -10 17 **Houston, TX** 0 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 0 3 4 6 3 3 1 1 0 8 -14 22 **Los Angeles, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 15 20 29 10 1 0 0 0 75 0 76 **New York, NY Philadelphia, PA**  0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 3 4 5 3 2 0 0 0 14 -4 18 **Sacramento, CA** 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 6 -2 9 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 4 **Change in risk**

**Change in risk**

**Change in risk**

NA

# 26

Table 7C-2. Sensitivity Analysis – ST Mortality: Alternate method for simulating stand ards (2009) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidenc e per 100,000) - compare with Core Results in Table 7B-2

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**
56 57 57 56 52 -1 0 1 5 (-180 - 290) (-190 - 290) (-190 - 290) (-180 - 290) (-1 70 - 270) (3 - -5) (0 - -1) (-3 - 6) (-16 - 25)

460 460 460 450 430 -9 4 24 (23 - 880) (23 - 880) (24 - 890) (23 - 870) (22 - 830) ( 0 - -18) (0 - 7) (1 - 46)

550 580 580 580 560 -31 -2 2 18 (100 - 990) (110 - 1000) (110 - 1000) (110 - 1000) (110 - 1000) (-6 - -57) (0 - -3) (0 - 3) (3 - 32)

670 690 680 660 640 -19 15 32 48 (-280 - 1600) (120 - 1700) (120 - 1600) (110 - 1600) (1 10 - 1500) (-3 - -46) (3 - 36) (5 - 77) (8 - 120)

2900 2900 2900 2700 -3 24 290 (1800 - 4100) (2300 - 4100) (2200 - 4100) (2000 - 3700 ) (-2 - -4) (18 - 33) (220 - 400)

820 810 790 780 750 9 16 35 58 (180 - 1400) (180 - 1400) (180 - 1400) (170 - 1400) (17 0 - 1300) (2 - 16) (4 - 28) (8 - 61) (13 - 100)

170 160 160 150 150 7 3 6 10 (-180 - 500) (-170 - 480) (-170 - 470) (-160 - 460) (-1 60 - 450) (-7 - 20) (-3 - 10) (-6 - 18) (-10 - 30)

**Base 75ppb**  **70ppb 65ppb**  **60ppb Base-75**  **75-70 75-65**  **75-60 Denver, CO**  0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 -2 -0.2 2 8 **Detroit, MI** 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 NA -2 1 5 **Houston, TX** 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 -6 -0.3 0.2 3 **Los Angeles, CA** 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -3 2 5 7 **New York, NY** 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.5 NA -0.1 1 9 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 1 2 4 7 **Sacramento, CA** 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 4 2 4 6

**Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60 Denver, CO**  2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 -0.039 -0.0044 0.042 0.19 **Detroit, MI** 11 11 11 10 10 NA -0.21 0.086 0.54 **Houston, TX** 9.4 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.7 -0.54 -0.026 0.028 0.30 **Los Angeles, CA** 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 -0.15 0.12 0.25 0.38 **New York, NY** 16 16 16 14 NA -0.014 0.13 1.5 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 14 14 13 13 13 0.15 0.27 0.58 0.99 **Sacramento, CA** 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.1 0.30 0.15 0.28 0.46 **Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence** 

**Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 
**Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O**  **3** 

## -Attributable Risk **Philadelphia, PA Denver, CO** 

**Detroit, MI** NA

**Houston, TX**

**Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000**  **Air Quality Scenario**

**Study Area Los Angeles, CA** 

**New York, NY**

**Sacramento, CA** NA NA

# 27

Table 7C-3. Sensitivity Analysis – ST Mortality: Regional Bayes Adjustment (2009) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,00 0) - compare with Core Results in Table 7B-2)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**

220 220 210 200 200 4 8 14 21 (-10 - 610) (-9 - 590) (-9 - 570) (-9 - 560) (-8 - 540) (0 - 11) (0 - 21) (-1 - 40) (-1 - 57)

460 460 450 440 430 7 9 20 32 (310 - 730) (300 - 720) (300 - 710) (290 - 690) (280 - 670) (4 - 10) (6 - 13) (13 - 32) (21 - 51)

570 570 570 560 550 -4 -2 9 25 (350 - 930) (350 - 940) (350 - 940) (340 - 920) (330 - 900) (-2 - -7) (-1 - -3) (6 - 15) (15 - 41)

290 300 290 280 260 -4 9 21 37 (160 - 510) (170 - 520) (160 - 500) (150 - 480) (150 - 460) (-2 - -6) (5 - 15) (12 - 38) (20 - 65)

10 10 10 10 9 0 0 0 1 (-130 - 240) (-130 - 240) (-130 - 240) (-130 - 230) (-1 20 - 220) (1 - -1) (0 - 1) (-3 - 6) (-11 - 21)

510 510 520 510 490 -19 -5 13 (290 - 860) (290 - 860) (310 - 890) (300 - 870) (290 - 840) (-11 - -32) (-3 - -9) (8 - 23)

470 500 500 500 490 -40 -1 3 10 (240 - 850) (260 - 920) (260 - 930) (250 - 920) (250 - 910) (-20 - -73) (0 - -1) (1 - 5) (5 - 19)

610 700 680 650 610 -90 23 49 90 (78 - 1500) (89 - 1700) (86 - 1700) (83 - 1600) (78 - 1 500) (-11 - -220) (3 - 56) (6 - 120) (11 - 220)

3300 3400 3300 2800 -98 110 550 (2700 - 4300) (2700 - 4400) (2700 - 4300) (2300 - 3700 ) (-80 - -130) (87 - 140) (450 - 730)

1200 1200 1200 1100 1100 -6 20 47 73 (860 - 1700) (860 - 1700) (850 - 1700) (830 - 1600) (81 0 - 1600) (-4 - -9) (15 - 29) (34 - 68) (53 - 110)

59 58 57 56 54 2 1 2 3 (-150 - 400) (-140 - 390) (-140 - 390) (-140 - 380) (-1 40 - 370) (-4 - 11) (-2 - 7) (-5 - 13) (-8 - 23)

390 390 380 370 350 1 8 21 37 (200 - 690) (200 - 690) (200 - 680) (190 - 660) (180 - 630) (1 - 3) (4 - 15) (11 - 38) (20 - 68)

**Base 75ppb**  **70ppb 65ppb**  **60ppb Base-75**  **75-70 75-65**  **75-60 Atlanta, GA**  1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 2 3 7 9 **Baltimore, MD** 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 1 2 4 7 **Boston, MA** 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 -1 -0.3 1 4 **Cleveland, OH** 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 -1 3 7 12 **Denver, CO** 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.2 2 7 **Detroit, MI** 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 NA -4 -1 3 **Houston, TX** 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 -8 -0.1 0.5 2 **Los Angeles, CA** 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 -15 3 7 13 **New York, NY** 4.2 4.4 4.2 3.7 NA -3 3 16 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 -1 2 4 6 **Sacramento, CA** 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2 2 3 6 **St. Louis, MO** 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 0.4 2 5 9

**Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60 Atlanta, GA**  4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 0.077 0.15 0.28 0.40 **Baltimore, MD** 17 17 17 16 16 0.24 0.32 0.74 1.2 **Boston, MA** 13 13 13 12 12 -0.088 -0.043 0.20 0.55 **Cleveland, OH** 14 14 14 13 13 -0.17 0.42 1.0 1.8 **Denver, CO** 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.36 -0.0017 0.0014 0.0095 0.034 **Detroit, MI** 12 12 12 12 11 NA -0.43 -0.12 0.31 **Houston, TX** 8.0 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 -0.68 -0.0085 0.045 0.18 **Los Angeles, CA** 4.8 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.8 -0.70 0.18 0.38 0.70 **New York, NY** 17 18 17 15 NA -0.52 0.57 3.0 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 20 20 19 19 19 -0.10 0.34 0.79 1.2 **Sacramento, CA** 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 0.076 0.046 0.091 0.16 **St. Louis, MO** 14 14 13 13 12 0.052 0.30 0.74 1.3 **Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence** 

**Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 
**Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O**  **3** 

## -Attributable Risk **Philadelphia, PA Atlanta, GA** 

**Baltimore, MD**

**Boston, MA**

**Cleveland, OH**

**Denver, CO**

**Detroit, MI**

**Houston, TX**

**Study Area Los Angeles, CA** 

**New York, NY**

**Sacramento, CA**

**St. Louis, MO** NA

NA NA

**Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000**  **Air Quality Scenario**

# 28

Table 7C-4. Sensitivity Analysis – ST Mortality: Copollutant model (PM 10 

# ) (2009) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,00 0) - compare with Core Results in Table 7B-2)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**

100 99 95 92 89 2 4 7 9 (-440 - 980) (-430 - 970) (-420 - 940) (-400 - 910) (-3 90 - 880) (-8 - 18) (-15 - 35) (-28 - 65) (-40 - 94)

240 230 230 220 220 3 4 10 16 (-70 - 740) (-69 - 730) (-68 - 720) (-66 - 700) (-64 - 680) (-1 - 10) (-1 - 14) (-3 - 32) (-5 - 52)

100 100 100 100 100 -1 0 2 5 (-330 - 820) (-330 - 820) (-340 - 830) (-330 - 810) (-3 20 - 790) (2 - -6) (1 - -3) (-5 - 13) (-14 - 36)

200 200 200 190 180 -3 6 15 25 (-16 - 560) (-16 - 570) (-16 - 550) (-15 - 530) (-14 - 500) (0 - -7) (0 - 17) (-1 - 41) (-2 - 71)

-13 -13 -13 -13 -12 0 0 0 -1 (-220 - 330) (-220 - 330) (-220 - 330) (-220 - 320) (-2 00 - 300) (1 - -2) (-1 - 1) (-5 - 8) (-19 - 28)

200 200 210 210 200 -7 -2 5 (-130 - 760) (-130 - 760) (-140 - 790) (-130 - 770) (-1 30 - 740) (5 - -28) (1 - -8) (-4 - 20)

690 750 750 750 730 -59 -1 4 16 (240 - 1400) (260 - 1600) (260 - 1600) (260 - 1600) (25 0 - 1500) (-20 - -130) (0 - -2) (1 - 8) (5 - 33)

160 190 180 170 160 -24 6 13 24 (-1100 - 2200) (-1200 - 2600) (-1200 - 2500) (-1200 - 2400) (-1100 - 2200) (160 - -330) (-40 - 83) (-85 - 180 ) (-160 - 330)

1300 1300 1300 1100 -38 42 220 (-25 - 3500) (-26 - 3600) (-25 - 3500) (-22 - 3000) (1 - -110) (-1 - 110) (-4 - 600)

630 630 620 610 590 -3 11 25 39 (-61 - 1800) (-61 - 1800) (-60 - 1700) (-59 - 1700) (-5 7 - 1700) (0 - -9) (-1 - 31) (-2 - 71) (-4 - 110)

150 150 150 150 140 4 3 5 9 (-190 - 720) (-190 - 710) (-180 - 690) (-180 - 680) (-1 80 - 670) (-5 - 20) (-3 - 12) (-6 - 24) (-11 - 41)

210 210 200 200 190 1 4 11 20 (-180 - 840) (-180 - 840) (-180 - 830) (-170 - 800) (-1 60 - 760) (-1 - 3) (-4 - 18) (-10 - 46) (-17 - 83)

**Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60 Atlanta, GA**  0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 2 3 6 9 **Baltimore, MD** 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1 2 4 7 **Boston, MA** 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -1 -0.4 1 4 **Cleveland, OH** 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 -1 3 7 12 **Denver, CO** -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 1 3 10 **Detroit, MI** 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 NA -4 -1 3 **Houston, TX** 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 -8 -0.1 0.5 2 **Los Angeles, CA** 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -14 3 7 12 **New York, NY** 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 NA -3 3 16 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 -1 2 4 6 **Sacramento, CA** 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 2 2 3 6 **St. Louis, MO** 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.3 2 5 9

**Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60 Atlanta, GA**  1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 0.035 0.066 0.13 0.18 **Baltimore, MD** 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.1 0.12 0.16 0.37 0.61 **Boston, MA** 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 -0.016 -0.0076 0.036 0.100 **Cleveland, OH** 9.7 9.8 9.5 9.1 8.6 -0.12 0.28 0.70 1.2 **Denver, CO** -0.52 -0.52 -0.52 -0.51 -0.48 0.0023 -0.0019 -0.012 -0.044 **Detroit, MI** 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.6 NA -0.17 -0.049 0.12 **Houston, TX** 12 13 13 13 13 -1.0 -0.013 0.068 0.27 **Los Angeles, CA** 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 -0.19 0.047 0.10 0.19 **New York, NY** 6.9 7.1 6.9 6.0 NA -0.20 0.22 1.2 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 11 11 10 10 10.0 -0.053 0.18 0.42 0.65 **Sacramento, CA** 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 0.20 0.12 0.24 0.41 **St. Louis, MO** 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.7 0.028 0.16 0.40 0.71 **Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence** 

**Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 
**Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O**  **3** 

## -Attributable Risk **Philadelphia, PA Atlanta, GA** 

**Baltimore, MD**

**Boston, MA**

**Cleveland, OH**

**Denver, CO**

**Detroit, MI**

**Houston, TX**

**Study Area Los Angeles, CA** 

**New York, NY**

**Sacramento, CA**

**St. Louis, MO** NA

NA NA

**Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozon e-Attributable Deaths per 100,000**  **Air Quality Scenario**

# 29

Table 7C-5. Sensitivity Analysis – ST Mortality: Alternate risk model (Zanobetti and S chwartz, 2008) (2009) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidenc e per 100,000) - compare with Core Results in Table 7B-2)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**
120 110 100 96 91 6 8 14 19 (-14 - 330) (-14 - 320) (-13 - 290) (-12 - 280) (-11 - 260) (-1 - 18) (-1 - 24) (-2 - 41) (-2 - 56)

130 120 120 110 110 13 4 10 15 (40 - 290) (36 - 260) (35 - 250) (33 - 240) (32 - 230) ( 4 - 29) (1 - 10) (3 - 21) (4 - 32)

220 220 210 210 200 1 6 11 19 (99 - 420) (98 - 420) (96 - 410) (93 - 400) (90 - 390) ( 0 - 2) (3 - 11) (5 - 22) (9 - 37)

120 110 110 100 95 5 5 12 20 (38 - 260) (37 - 240) (35 - 230) (33 - 220) (30 - 200) ( 2 - 11) (2 - 11) (4 - 27) (6 - 44)

62 62 60 57 51 0 2 4 10 (-21 - 200) (-21 - 200) (-20 - 190) (-20 - 180) (-18 - 170) (0 - 1) (-1 - 6) (-1 - 14) (-4 - 33)

370 370 380 370 350 -6 5 21 (230 - 600) (230 - 600) (240 - 610) (230 - 600) (220 - 570) (-4 - -10) (3 - 8) (13 - 35)

52 56 56 55 54 -4 0 1 3 (-45 - 220) (-48 - 230) (-48 - 230) (-47 - 230) (-46 - 220) (3 - -15) (0 - 1) (-1 - 4) (-2 - 10)

270 270 260 240 230 6 13 27 40 (28 - 690) (28 - 670) (27 - 640) (25 - 600) (24 - 570) ( 1 - 16) (1 - 32) (3 - 69) (4 - 100)

1500 1500 1400 1000 96 110 420 (1200 - 2200) (1100 - 2100) (1000 - 1900) (790 - 1500) (72 - 140) (83 - 160) (320 - 600)

360 340 320 310 300 24 12 26 38 (150 - 700) (140 - 660) (140 - 640) (130 - 610) (130 - 590) (10 - 47) (5 - 24) (11 - 51) (16 - 76)

110 93 89 86 82 15 4 7 12 (23 - 250) (20 - 210) (19 - 210) (19 - 200) (18 - 190) ( 3 - 36) (1 - 9) (2 - 17) (3 - 27)

160 150 150 140 130 2 8 15 24 (46 - 340) (46 - 330) (43 - 320) (41 - 300) (39 - 280) ( 1 - 5) (2 - 17) (5 - 34) (7 - 53)

**Base 75ppb**  **70ppb 65ppb**  **60ppb Base-75**  **75-70 75-65**  **75-60 Atlanta, GA**  1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 5 7 13 17 **Baltimore, MD** 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 10 4 8 12 **Boston, MA** 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 0.3 2 5 8 **Cleveland, OH** 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 4 4 10 17 **Denver, CO** 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1 3 7 16 **Detroit, MI** 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.9 NA -2 1 5 **Houston, TX** 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -7 0.3 2 4 **Los Angeles, CA** 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 2 5 10 15 **New York, NY** 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.0 NA 6 7 28 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 6 3 7 11 **Sacramento, CA** 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 14 4 7 12 **St. Louis, MO** 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1 5 10 15

**Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60 Atlanta, GA**  2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 0.12 0.16 0.27 0.37 **Baltimore, MD** 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.9 0.49 0.16 0.35 0.55 **Boston, MA** 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 0.017 0.13 0.25 0.42 **Cleveland, OH** 5.7 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.6 0.25 0.25 0.59 0.97 **Denver, CO** 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 0.014 0.077 0.17 0.41 **Detroit, MI** 8.6 8.6 8.8 8.5 8.2 NA -0.14 0.12 0.50 **Houston, TX** 0.90 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.92 -0.062 0.0029 0.016 0.043 **Los Angeles, CA** 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 0.050 0.10 0.21 0.31 **New York, NY** 8.2 7.8 7.2 5.6 NA 0.51 0.59 2.2 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.2 5.0 0.40 0.20 0.43 0.64 **Sacramento, CA** 5.1 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 0.72 0.17 0.34 0.55 **St. Louis, MO** 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.6 0.075 0.28 0.55 0.86 NA

NA NA

**Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000**  **Air Quality Scenario**

**Study Area Los Angeles, CA** 

**New York, NY**

**Sacramento, CA**

**St. Louis, MO Study Area**  **Air Quality Scenario**
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence** 

**Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 
**Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O**  **3** 

## -Attributable Risk **Philadelphia, PA Atlanta, GA** 

**Baltimore, MD**

**Boston, MA**

**Cleveland, OH**

**Denver, CO**

**Detroit, MI**

**Houston, TX**

# 30

Table 7C-6. Sensitivity Analysis – LT Mortality: Alternate risk model (regional effect estimates) (2009) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidenc e per 100,000) - compare with Core Results in Table 7B-7)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60** 1,400 1,300 1,300 1,200 1,200 75 92 170 230 (720 - 1900) (690 - 1800) (660 - 1800) (630 - 1700) (61 0 - 1700) (34 - 110) (42 - 140) (77 - 260) (110 - 350)

-110 -100 -100 -96 -92 -6.4 -3.1 -6.9 -11 (-1200 - 590) (-1100 - 560) (-1000 - 550) (-980 - 530) (-930 - 510) (-55 - 41) (-27 - 20) (-59 - 44) (-93 - 68 )

-170 -170 -170 -160 -150 0.29 -0.95 -5.8 -12 (-1700 - 920) (-1700 - 920) (-1700 - 920) (-1600 - 890 ) (-1500 - 860) (3 - -2) (-8 - 6) (-50 - 38) (-100 - 77)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (-990 - 630) (-950 - 620) (-900 - 600) (-840 - 570) (-7 80 - 540) (-22 - 22) (-34 - 33) (-76 - 73) (-120 - 110)

450 450 440 430 400 0.73 8.6 27 67 (-26 - 780) (-26 - 780) (-26 - 770) (-25 - 760) (-23 - 710) (0 - 2) (0 - 18) (-1 - 55) (-3 - 130)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (-1700 - 1100) (-1700 - 1100) (-1700 - 1100) (-1700 - 1100) (-1600 - 1000) (15 - -15) (-31 - 31) (-90 - 88) 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,100 -11 32 69 110 (610 - 1600) (620 - 1600) (610 - 1600) (590 - 1600) (58 0 - 1500) (-5 - -18) (14 - 49) (31 - 110) (51 - 170)

450 440 420 400 380 16 19 41 63 (-2400 - 2500) (-2300 - 2400) (-2200 - 2300) (-2100 - 2200) (-1900 - 2100) (-72 - 100) (-87 - 120) (-180 - 26 0) (-290 - 400)

-600 -580 -550 -470 -16 -31 -110 (-6200 - 3300) (-6000 - 3200) (-5600 - 3100) (-4600 - 2700) (-130 - 100) (-260 - 200) (-960 - 690)

-260 -240 -240 -230 -220 -10 -8.0 -17 -25 (-2700 - 1400) (-2500 - 1300) (-2400 - 1300) (-2300 - 1300) (-2200 - 1200) (-88 - 66) (-69 - 52) (-150 - 110) (-220 - 160)

500 440 420 400 380 90 21 41 65 (-29 - 870) (-25 - 770) (-24 - 750) (-23 - 720) (-21 - 690) (-5 - 180) (-1 - 43) (-2 - 82) (-3 - 130)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (-1400 - 910) (-1400 - 910) (-1400 - 880) (-1300 - 850 ) (-1200 - 810) (-13 - 13) (-44 - 43) (-96 - 92) (-160 - 150)

**Base 75ppb**  **70ppb 65ppb**  **60ppb Base-75**  **75-70 75-65**  **75-60 Atlanta, GA**  42.6 41.3 39.6 38.1 36.9 3.1 4.0 7.6 10.7 **Baltimore, MD** -7.4 -6.9 -6.6 -6.3 -5.9 7.7 4.0 8.7 13.4 **Boston, MA** -6.1 -6.1 -6.0 -5.8 -5.5 -0.2 0.7 4.5 9.2 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 **Denver, CO** 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.3 24.5 0.1 1.3 4.2 10.7 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 0 0 NA 0 0 0 **Houston, TX** 41.0 41.2 40.6 39.8 38.9 -0.5 1.5 3.4 5.7 **Los Angeles, CA** 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 2.4 3.1 6.7 10.6 **New York, NY** -6.7 -6.5 -6.0 -5.0 NA 3.4 6.8 23.5 NA **Philadelphia, PA** -7.1 -6.7 -6.5 -6.1 -5.9 5.3 4.3 9.1 13.3 **Sacramento, CA** 28.5 24.9 24.0 23.2 22.1 12.8 3.6 6.9 11.2 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

**Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60 Atlanta, GA**  47 44 44 41 41 2.5 3.1 5.8 7.8 **Baltimore, MD** -6.8 -6.2 -6.2 -6.0 -5.7 -0.40 -0.19 -0.43 -0.68 **Boston, MA** -6.2 -6.2 -6.2 -5.8 -5.5 0.011 -0.035 -0.21 -0.44 **Cleveland, OH** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 **Denver, CO** 31 31 30 30 27 0.050 0.59 1.9 4.6 **Detroit, MI** 0 0 0 0 0 NA 0 0 0 **Houston, TX** 38 38 38 38 35 -0.35 1.0 2.2 3.5 **Los Angeles, CA** 6.2 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.3 0.22 0.26 0.57 0.87 **New York, NY** -5.3 -5.1 -4.9 -4.2 NA -0.14 -0.27 -0.97 NA **Philadelphia, PA** -7.3 -6.8 -6.8 -6.5 -6.2 -0.28 -0.23 -0.48 -0.71 **Sacramento, CA** 41 36 34 33 31 7.4 1.7 3.4 5.3 **St. Louis, MO** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 **Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 
**Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence** 

**Sacramento, CA Denver, CO** 

**Detroit, MI**

**Houston, TX**

**Los Angeles, CA**

**New York, NY**

**Philadelphia, PA**

**Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000**  **Cleveland, OH Atlanta, GA** 

**Baltimore, MD**

**Boston, MA**

**St. Louis, MO**

**Study Area Air Quality Scenario** 

**Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O**  **3** 

## -Attributable Risk

**Study Area Air Quality Scenario**  NA

NA NA

# 31

Table 7C-7. Sensitivity Analysis – LT Mortality: Alternate risk model (ozone-only effe ct estimate) (2009) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidenc e per 100,000) - compare with Core Results in Table 7B-7)

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that w ould meet the alternative standard level of 60 ppb. **Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60**

400 390 370 350 340 18 22 40 56 (120 - 660) (120 - 630) (110 - 600) (100 - 580) (100 - 550) (5 - 30) (6 - 37) (12 - 69) (16 - 96)

260 250 240 230 230 17 8.2 18 28 (80 - 430) (75 - 410) (73 - 400) (70 - 380) (67 - 370) ( 5 - 29) (2 - 14) (5 - 31) (8 - 48)

410 410 400 390 380 -0.77 2.5 15 32 (120 - 670) (120 - 670) (120 - 670) (120 - 650) (110 - 620) (0 - -1) (1 - 4) (4 - 26) (9 - 54)

220 210 200 190 180 6.4 9.9 22 34 (65 - 360) (63 - 350) (61 - 330) (57 - 320) (54 - 300) ( 2 - 11) (3 - 17) (6 - 37) (10 - 58)

220 220 220 210 200 0.34 3.9 12 31 (68 - 370) (68 - 360) (67 - 360) (65 - 350) (59 - 320) ( 0 - 1) (1 - 7) (4 - 21) (9 - 53)

380 380 380 370 350 -4.5 9.2 26 (110 - 620) (110 - 620) (110 - 630) (110 - 610) (110 - 580) (-1 - -8) (3 - 16) (8 - 45)

340 340 340 330 320 -2.7 7.5 16 27 (100 - 560) (100 - 560) (100 - 550) (98 - 540) (95 - 52 0) (-1 - -5) (2 - 13) (5 - 28) (8 - 46) 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,000 960 43 52 110 170 (350 - 1900) (340 - 1800) (320 - 1700) (310 - 1700) (29 0 - 1600) (12 - 73) (15 - 89) (31 - 180) (49 - 290) 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 42 81 290 (440 - 2400) (430 - 2300) (400 - 2200) (350 - 1900) (12 - 71) (23 - 140) (83 - 490)

620 590 580 550 530 27 21 45 66 (190 - 1000) (180 - 970) (170 - 940) (170 - 910) (160 - 880) (8 - 46) (6 - 36) (13 - 77) (19 - 110)

250 220 210 200 190 42 9.8 19 30 (76 - 410) (65 - 350) (62 - 340) (60 - 330) (56 - 310) ( 12 - 71) (3 - 17) (5 - 32) (9 - 51)

320 310 300 290 270 3.8 13 28 45 (95 - 520) (94 - 510) (90 - 490) (86 - 470) (81 - 450) ( 1 - 7) (95 - 520) (8 - 47) (13 - 77)

**Base 75ppb**  **70ppb 65ppb**  **60ppb Base-75**  **75-70 75-65**  **75-60 Atlanta, GA**  12.4 11.9 11.3 10.8 10.4 4 5 10 14 **Baltimore, MD** 12.9 12.2 11.9 11.4 11.0 6 3 7 10 **Boston, MA** 11.1 11.2 11.1 10.8 10.4 -0.2 1 3 7 **Cleveland, OH** 12.1 11.8 11.3 10.7 10.1 3 4 10 15 **Denver, CO** 14.1 14.1 13.9 13.5 12.4 0.1 2 5 12 **Detroit, MI** 11.9 11.9 12.0 11.7 11.2 NA -1 2 6 **Houston, TX** 11.8 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.0 -1 2 4 7 **Los Angeles, CA** 15.1 14.6 14.1 13.4 12.7 3 4 9 14 **New York, NY** 12.0 11.7 11.1 9.6 NA 3 5 19 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 12.5 12.1 11.7 11.2 10.9 4 3 7 10 **Sacramento, CA** 14.7 12.6 12.1 11.7 11.1 14 4 8 13 **St. Louis, MO** 12.6 12.4 12.0 11.5 10.9 1 4 8 13

**Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60 Atlanta, GA**  14 13 12 12 11 0.60 0.74 1.4 1.9 **Baltimore, MD** 16 16 15 15 14 1.0 0.51 1.1 1.7 **Boston, MA** 15 15 15 14 14 -0.028 0.091 0.56 1.2 **Cleveland, OH** 17 16 16 15 14 0.49 0.76 1.7 2.6 **Denver, CO** 15 15 15 15 14 0.023 0.27 0.85 2.1 **Detroit, MI** 14 14 15 14 14 NA -0.17 0.35 1.00 **Houston, TX** 11 11 11 10 10 -0.084 0.24 0.51 0.86 **Los Angeles, CA** 16 15 15 14 13 0.59 0.72 1.5 2.3 **New York, NY** 13 13 12 10 NA 0.37 0.71 2.5 NA **Philadelphia, PA** 17 17 16 16 15 0.76 0.60 1.3 1.9 **Sacramento, CA** 21 18 17 16 15 3.4 0.80 1.5 2.5 **St. Louis, MO** 19 19 18 17 16 0.23 0.76 1.6 2.7 **Air Quality Scenario Percent of Baseline Incidence Change in O**  **3** 

## -Attributable Risk **Air Quality Scenario**
**Absolute Incidence Change in Incidence** 

**Study Area Air Quality Scenario**  **Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Cleveland, OH** 

**Sacramento, CA**

**St. Louis, MO Denver, CO** 

**Detroit, MI**

**Houston, TX**

**Los Angeles, CA**

**New York, NY**

**Philadelphia, PA**

**Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000** NA NA NA **Atlanta, GA**

**Baltimore, MD**

**Boston, MA Study Area** 

**Study Area**